Brexit was always going to be a hugely disruptive event. Some, I think with a degree of hyperbole, have compared it to the break-up of the Soviet empire, or the moment the Berlin Wall came down, in terms of its geo-political significance and the threat that it poses to the future of the EU.

But what it is not, as some financial policymakers seem determined to prove, is a ‘Lehman moment’.

In other words, an event similar to the collapse of the American investment bank in the autumn of 2008, which triggered a Western financial crisis and the Great Recession.

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, warned of uncertainty in the markets, predicted big businesses would stop spending money on investment and development and the property market would fall

Yet anyone listening yesterday to Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, might have thought that the financial system is teetering on the edge of a precipice, and that The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street is being forced into erecting a safety net.

In apocalyptic terms, he uttered dire warnings of grave uncertainty in the markets, predicted big businesses would stop spending money on investment and development and that the property market would fall, if not crash.

The Canadian Governor seems determined to show that his desperate warnings — made during the course of the EU referendum campaign — about a loss of economic confidence and a ‘technical recession’ (two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP) are already proving right.

Fearful

But how much of his Jeremiah-like mutterings are down to pique that the voters dared to defy his warnings, and how much to reality?

Take property. The truth is that, if there is a pause in the growth of the residential and commercial property markets, it will have little at all to do with Brexit.

Foreign buyers of London commercial property have been frightened off by the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, and the dramatic fall in oil prices in the past year. This has left the rich Gulf states short of the ready cash with which they have previously bought up great swathes of London.

As for Britain’s residential market, it has faced great pressure from George Osborne’s ill-advised and, frankly, greedy increases in stamp duty and his tax grab on buy-to-let properties (a favourite use for ordinary people’s savings), proposed taxes on second homes and tough new mortgage rules for would-be homebuyers.

Foreign buyers of London commercial property have been frightened off by the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy

In fact, in spite of all the talk of a property meltdown, one of the major housebuilders, Redrow, has reported queues of people at the weekend hoping to join the housing ladder — after the Brexit vote.

Elsewhere, the fact is that Mark Carney and the other economic gurus who offered grim projections for growth and incomes during a highly dishonest Remain campaign simply can’t know yet what is happening in the real economy of jobs, consumption of goods, industrial output and housing.

Just two weeks have passed since Britain took its decision, and there are virtually no reliable economic indicators to go on as yet.

In listening to the Bank’s Governor, I am reminded of the famous dictum of the Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson. Referring to financial forecasts made by so-called experts, he sardonically noted that they had predicted ‘nine out of the last five recessions’.

Conversely — and all too tellingly — when a genuine crisis does unfold, too often we are not warned at all.

Remember that the International Monetary Fund, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Bank of England all singularly failed to predict the great banking and financial crisis of 2007-09.

Yet, looking back, all the signs were there for the so-called experts to spot.

The great danger with the position Mark Carney has taken before and after the referendum is that the more our public officials warn of the dangers of the post-Brexit world, the more a damaging downturn is likely.

Economics is largely about human behaviour. How the economy performs is the result of millions of ordinary people taking decisions about their lives and thousands of businesses, large and small, forming a view about investment prospects.

If, as was the case in the referendum campaign, there are dire warnings of impending recession, it is hardly surprising that some investors are cautiously now seeking to protect their assets.

Perhaps unsurprisingly then, in the past two days, it’s been reported that major commercial property funds at the insurers Standard Life and Aviva have been suspended to stop withdrawals of investors’ money.

But do we really need to be so fearful?

Dismal

Having skulked in the shadows for days after the Brexit vote, Chancellor George Osborne has come out fighting in a bid to infuse the economy with new zip.

Though he’s given up on his fiscal target of a budget surplus by 2020 — which he was never going to achieve, even without Brexit — he does appear to have remembered that cutting taxes can have an energising effect.

Big American and continental corporations will see Britain as an attractive place to do business if, as the Chancellor is promising, corporation taxes are brought down to 15 per cent, against the prevailing rates of 30 per cent in Germany and France and 34-38 per cent in the U.S. What Mark Carney and other policymakers need to shout from the rooftops is that the free markets are working as they are meant to.

The 10 per cent devaluation of the pound in the past two weeks may be uncomfortable for ordinary people using foreign currency on their summer breaks, but it is a boon for Britain’s businesses.

In the past two days, it’s been reported that major commercial property funds at the insurers Standard Life and Aviva have been suspended to stop withdrawals of investors’ money

It makes our exports cheaper, thus giving us a competitive edge. Rolls-Royce, for example, has already indicated its income could end up being £400 million higher, generating up to £40 million of extra profits.

This expected boost in exports is among the reasons the FTSE 100 share index has shrugged off all the dismal talk and soared to new heights.

This paper has expressed grave reservations about the proposed £21 billion merger of the London Stock Exchange with its German rival Deutsche Boerse, believing that the flagship British exchange functions perfectly well on its own.

For all that, it is interesting to note that LSE shareholders have just voted overwhelmingly in favour of the deal, demonstrating that, in the financial sector where Britain is so dominant, commercial life is proceeding as normal, and that the hard money in Germany has faith (along with that nation’s version of the CBI) in Britain.

Revenge

Ironically enough, the stumbling block to the deal is going to come from German financial regulators seeking to take some form of revenge on Britain for daring to break away from the ossified EU and the failing eurozone.

The City of London employs 790,000 people, encompassing every kind of skill from currency trading to complex derivatives markets and advice on mergers and acquisitions. It is the legal capital of the world, with dozens of American and European firms making their homes here.

Even if, after Brexit, a few thousand banking jobs were to relocate to Paris, Frankfurt or Amsterdam, it is impossible for them to replicate the depth and breadth of expertise found here.

This is the real narrative we should be hearing from Mark Carney and the Bank of England. He should know better than to scare the public about an already vulnerable property market, weakened by factors that have nothing to do with the Leave vote.

As the custodian of financial stability, Carney may believe he is doing his job and acting within his mandate. But there will be Brexit politicians — some of whom will soon be dominant in Westminster — who will regard his public interventions as a betrayal of Britain Plc.

The last thing the country needs at present is the forced resignation of the Bank’s Governor, for that would only add to the climate of financial uncertainty he keeps talking about.