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It’s going to be very hard to leave Vanderbilt out

The case against Vanderbilt comes down to one number: 15. That’s the total number of losses the Commodores will have if they go down either of the next two days in the SEC tournament.

But now the Commodores have three victories over Florida (home, road and neutral, the last of which came in Friday’s SEC quarterfinals) plus triumphs over Arkansas, Iowa State and South Carolina to their credit. They played the nation’s No. 1 non-conference schedule. They’re 8-9 away from home (which is perfectly fine) and don’t have damaging numbers in advanced metrics.

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What’s the best case against Vanderbilt (19-14)? The horrible loss at Missouri stands out. But given the committee’s emphasis on quantity of high-end victories the last couple years, combined with the other boxes the Commodores check, Vanderbilt has probably played its way into the field.

TCU’s run ends

Texas Christian ran out of gas tonight as it played its third game in three days, falling 84-63 to Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals.

It’s worth giving a nod to the job Jamie Dixon did this year in his first season back at his alma mater. The Horned Frogs went 19-15, beat Kansas on Thursday in the conference quarterfinals and were generally respectable despite a seven-game slide to end the regular season. Dixon also looks good in comparison to how Pittsburgh fared after his departure.

Still, there’s just not enough oomph for TCU to get into the NCAA tournament. An NIT bid is perfectly plausible, and that’s a great showing for a team that was outmatched since joining the Big 12.

As for the conference, the three remaining teams — Iowa State, Kansas State and West Virginia — should be in the field based on the committee’s decision-making in the recent past. Maybe Kansas State is debatable if it loses in the late semifinal, but it isn’t seizing a bid from someone else if it wins another game.

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The Big Ten sorts itself out

There are years when the selection committee needs to have a contingency plan in place in case a surprise Big Ten finalist plays its way into the field. This won’t be one of them.

With Indiana eliminated despite a spunky showing against Wisconsin — the Hoosiers closed within four with less than two minutes to go before falling, 70-60 — all that remains in the Big Ten field are certain NCAA tournament teams. Michigan and Minnesota will play in Saturday’s first semifinal, while Wisconsin will meet either Maryland and Northwestern. All five of those teams appear to be snugly inside the field.

That means the Big Ten joins the ACC and the Big East as leagues that will be bid-thief-free this season, with the Big 12 (if Texas Christian loses to Iowa State) and the Pac-12 (if California falls to Oregon this evening) joining them. By night’s end it’s possible the only remaining bid-snatchers will be lurking in the Atlantic 10, the American Athletic and the SEC — as well as Middle Tennessee if it falls in tomorrow’s Conference USA title game

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Bubblers get a break from VCU

Virginia Commonwealth is certain to have a strong following at this week’s Atlantic 10 tournament. Rams fans are boisterous and more willing to travel anywhere and everywhere for basketball games than many Power Five fan bases.

The Rams also have plenty of fans outside of PPG Paints Arena thanks to Dayton’s elimination from the league tournament. With the Flyers gone, VCU running the table is the path to saving a spot for a team like Syracuse, Vanderbilt or Southern California.

As a result, there were some nervous moments this evening as George Mason gave the Rams a good run in the conference quarterfinals. VCU (25-7) ultimately pulled away for a 71-60 victory, and it will be listed as the projected automatic qualifier in the A-10 until it is eliminated.

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Needless to say, there’s plenty of teams across the country with a vested interest in that not happening this weekend.

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Here come the faux “Michigan State’s in for an anxious Selection Sunday” narrative

The first rule of bracket projection is that no team exists in a vacuum. The second rule of bracket projection is that the selection committee is taking 68 teams (and 36 at-large teams) no matter what.

Remember both of these rules. It’s not important so much as it useful to sizing up some knee-jerk reactions.

Enter Michigan State, owner of a 19-14 record and a Big Ten quarterfinal exit against Minnesota on Friday. This is not a vintage Spartans team, and even Tom Izzo magic wasn’t enough to make it great. That much was clear enough to some by mid-December and most before the end of January.

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Just about everyone can agree this isn’t a remarkable Michigan State team. Not in the slightest. But it has five top-50 victories (Minnesota twice, Michigan, Wichita State and Wisconsin). It got two of those outside of East Lansing (at Minnesota and against Wichita State on a neutral court). It played its customary stellar nonconference schedule (No. 19 in strength, per CBSSports.com).

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The Spartans have only one silly loss (at home against Northeastern), a borderline top-50 RPI and advanced metrics figures that don’t raise red flags (No. 37 Sagarin and No. 43 KenPom, though those could dip a little after Friday).

So aside from a bunch of losses — and 14 would tie the record for an at-large, most recently set in 2011 when Michigan State was one of a handful of teams to get in with such a bloated loss ledger — there isn’t a major differentiating factor working against the Spartans. Basically, they look like a No. 10 seed relative to the rest of the field, and that’s what they’ll probably be come Sunday.

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Given the committee’s move toward valuing quantity of quality victories for teams that don’t have other obvious shortcomings, it would be surprising if Michigan State got left out. In fact, it’d be more than a little surprising if it got sent to Dayton. Think of Sparty as this year’s version of 2016 Syracuse.

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Then there’s the money question: If not Michigan State, then who? Right now, it’s hard to come up with 32 at-large profiles (let alone 36) the committee would pick before the Spartans, at least if committee continues to replicate its recent behavior.

Michigan State isn’t all that great, and no one should expect it to stick around beyond the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. But it would be a stunner if it isn’t in the field; there just aren’t enough superior options based on the committee’s interpretation of the selection criteria the last two years.

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Rhode Island still in the mix

It’s off to the Atlantic 10 semifinals for Rhode Island (22-9), which dealt St. Bonaventure a 74-63 loss in Friday afternoon’s quarterfinals.

There is a case, and maybe not an especially great one, for the Rams as an at-large team. They beat Cincinnati on a neutral court, VCU at home and are 9-6 away from Kingston this season. But the top of the profile is certainly a bit flimsy.

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Oddly enough, their chances of landing an at-large probably went down Friday due to something beyond their control. The Rams could have faced Dayton in the semifinals, but the Flyers lost to Davidson in the first game of the day in Pittsburgh. There’s no chance for Rhode Island to really enhance its profile unless it meets and beats VCU on Sunday. And if it does that, it’s in the NCAA tournament anyway.

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But with ninth-seeded Davidson (which will be playing its third game in three days) awaiting Saturday and the absence of anyone in the bottom half of the draw that would create unsolvable headaches for the Rams (they beat VCU, George Mason and George Washington in the regular season while losing at Richmond), the path to not even needing an at-large got a whole lot wider today for Rhode Island.

Georgia’s NCAA hopes end

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The path to the NCAA tournament was narrow for Georgia, and the biggest impediment was always going to be Kentucky.

The snakebit Bulldogs (19-14) didn’t pile up many notable victories (knocking off Vanderbilt counts as the best of their accomplishments), but they did play Kentucky tough twice in the regular season. An upset of the Wildcats in the Southeastern Conference quarterfinals, while unlikely, was not impossible.

The only way it was happening was if J.J. Frazier and Yante Maten, the latter just back from a knee injury, had monster days. They combined for 27 points, but did so on 7-of-28 shooting. Kentucky defended the knowns quite well in a 71-60 victory, and Georgia’s NCAA hopes dissolved as a result.

The Bulldogs will probably wind up in the NIT for the third time in four years, with a 2015 NCAA tournament trip wedged in there as well. It will be the first time since 1995-99 that Georgia reached the postseason in four consecutive seasons. But for bubble-watching purposes, don’t worry about the Dawgs again until next year.

The A-10 just got a lot more interesting

There were two clear favorites in the Atlantic 10 tournament. One (Virginia Commonwealth) doesn’t play until tonight, and the other was sent home in Friday’s opening quarterfinal.

Dayton’s loss to Davidson has some spillover effect for the rest of the A-10. For starters, the Flyers’ exit ensures that somebody not perceived as a sure thing for the NCAA tournament will be playing in Sunday’s final in Pittsburgh. If it’s Davidson or St. Bonaventure, then it’s simply an old-fashioned bid thief.

Fourth-seeded Rhode Island, which is playing St. Bonaventure as of this writing, is in a trickier spot. The Rams are right around the edge of the field, and really could have used the chance to add a quality victory over Dayton to bolster their portfolio. In that sense, they’re hurt some by the Flyers’ upset loss. On the other hand, the path to a conference title (and an automatic bid) arguably got easier. Dealing with Davidson’s Jack Gibbs and Peyton Aldridge won’t be a lot of fun, but on an average night, it’s more appealing than having to play Dayton.

Of course, the Rams could simply lose to St. Bonaventure and ensure the edge of the field roots hard for VCU to run the table in Pittsburgh.

One to go for Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee, 2016 postseason darling and 2017 Sweet 16 threat, is a victory away from sealing its place in the NCAA tournament field.

The Blue Raiders (29-4) blasted Texas-El Paso, 82-56, in the Conference USA semifinals to advance to Saturday’s title game.

To review Middle Tennessee’s body of work: A great nonconference strength of schedule, few missteps of any kind and lots and lots and lots of victories (including away from home). Just three years ago, it would have been tempting to chisel the Blue Raiders’ place in the field of 68 in marble. Given the committee’s recent decisions emphasizing quantity of high-end victories, though, they aren’t a sure thing.

While they would warrant discussion as an at-large possibility, the best bet for the Blue Raiders is to go ahead and beat Louisiana Tech or Marshall on Saturday and clinch a berth.

A trivial side note: No team has ever won 29 games and not made the tournament. The record for most triumphs for a team left out is 28, set by Coastal Carolina in 2010 and then matched by the Chanticleers the following season.

Visualizing the bubble

Bid thieves and where to find them

There’s no easy way for teams at the edge of the NCAA tournament field to solidify their places in the field of 68. Winning one noteworthy game, as Kansas State did late Thursday night against Baylor, is probably a more manageable path than winning a conference tournament outright.

That’s a path, though, the likes of Vanderbilt, Rhode Island and Syracuse (not to mention longer shots Iowa and Illinois State) will want to monitor over the final three days of the regular season. A surprise bid snatcher creates less room in the pool for everyone else.

A look at the remaining tournaments in leagues with a chance, however remote, of collecting multiple bids and its chances of producing a bid thief before the season is over.