Time is running short: The U.S. government’s borrowing authority runs out Thursday. | REUTERS Pressure rising on Boehner

Speaker John Boehner, who has wrestled with an unruly pack of conservatives for months, will soon be faced with an uncomfortable choice: Pass an emerging bipartisan Senate deal to lift the debt ceiling and fund the government, or don’t — and risk massive political and economic consequences.

As the contours of a bipartisan Senate deal became clear, Boehner’s leadership team, allies and rank-and-file lawmakers spent Monday saying that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are gearing up to send the House a crummy deal.


Reid and McConnell are readying a debt ceiling increase into February, a government-funding bill into January coupled with no serious changes to Obamacare. That would be an incredibly difficult sell to Boehner’s House, but GOP skepticism about this plan gives his House a chance to get back in the game after a few days of being relegated to the back seat.

( PHOTOS: House GOP meets on shutdown, debt deal)

Rep. James Lankford (R-Okla.), a member of Republican leadership, didn’t seem comfortable with the Senate package. Asked if there was anything he likes, Lankford said “not that I’ve seen so far.” Moments later, Lankford was huddling with Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) on the House floor.

“That’s a long time, that’s a lot of dollars,” Lankford said of the debt ceiling hike. “I’m going to have to see, is that a date certain? Is that give them the time to be able to reload all the extraordinary measures, so it’s really a debt ceiling increase to May or June?”

The buzz in the Republican cloakroom and on the floor was that the House was being asked to vote for a clean debt limit and continuing resolution — in short, the concessions won by McConnell were not victories at all. One House Republican said they would be lucky to find 20 GOP lawmakers willing to vote for this proposal.

( PHOTOS: 25 great shutdown quotes)

Time is running short: The U.S. government’s borrowing authority runs out Thursday.

Boehner, Cantor and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) will test the waters Tuesday morning in a House Republican Conference meeting. Aides say Boehner will spend most of the time gauging the reaction of his lawmakers.

As always, Boehner is playing his cards close to his chest. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) called Boehner on Monday evening , and the speaker would not give a hint of what his plans were, Democratic lawmakers said.

That’s the big question: What does Boehner do for the next day or two while the Senate tries to pass this bill. Boehner could pass his own six-week debt ceiling increase — first floated last week — but he would have to find 217 of his own lawmakers to get it through the chamber. Plus, not many Republicans will want to sign onto a bill that is dead on arrival in the Senate. If he puts this Senate proposal on the floor as its being described now, Boehner would need at least half of the 232 House Republicans to back it in order to avoid internal calamity.

( POLITICO's full coverage of the government shutdown)

If the Senate passes the proposal, Boehner could put it on the floor and amend it by adding a delay of the medical device tax, or insist that the Obama administration cancel the penalty for not signing up for Obamacare. Yet time is short, and that would put the U.S. government closer to default on its $16.7 trillion debt. Most House Republicans concede that they can’t go far past the Oct. 17 deadline, but they think they can tip-toe close — and perhaps dance an inch or two over. Some senior Republicans see Nov. 1 — when Social Security and veterans’ benefit payments are to be sent out to millions of Americans — as a more realistic deadline.

At the end of the day, many acknowledge that Boehner will have to pass the Senate’s deal, but it won’t be pretty.

McCarthy admitted GOP lawmakers were unhappy with the outlines of the proposal.

“The biggest think you hear from members is ‘What is this?,’ because they keep hearing it change so drastically every time,” McCarthy told reporters after two hours of closed-door leadership meetings.

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McCarthy said the House could reject the Senate agreement and put its own version of the debt-ceiling increase on the floor.

“That is an option,” McCarthy said. “I think in the morning we’ll see.”

The bill isn’t released, but it funds government until Jan. 15 and lifts the debt limit until Feb. 7. The deal will create a framework for budget talks, and requires the Obama administration verify the income of those who receive Obamacare subsidies. In a win for unions, the legislation will cancel a tax on some insurance plans.

“I HIGHLY doubt we just accept it without amendment,” one senior House Republican lawmaker said to POLITICO in an email Monday afternoon. “The insurance tax isn’t in our top 10 list of Obamacare wants/needs/desires.”

Michael Steel, a spokesman for Boehner, said in an emailed statement: “If the Senate comes to an agreement, we will review it with our members.”

Translation: This is nothing to celebrate — yet.

Of course, this could change. A market spiral could inject some urgency into the House Republican Conference. Boehner (R-Ohio) could give an impassioned “We’ve had enough” talk in Tuesday’s closed-door meeting and explain that this deal will give Republicans a chance to negotiate over the next government funding bill and debt ceiling — something President Barack Obama said he would never do. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) could make the case that winning a budget conference is a victory — and he will fight for Obamacare changes, entitlement reform and tax changes in that context.

But the other view, expressed anonymously by senior aides and lawmakers, is that this deal is not enough. After a 14-day shutdown that has left America on the brink of a debt default, the Republicans who provoked this fight will be left with nothing but declining poll numbers. These aides and lawmakers are watching the bumpy Obamacare rollout and know that the pack of 30 or so lawmakers who have stymied Boehner at every turn will push for more significant health care changes.

Changing this bill comes with massive risk for Boehner. For several weeks, Boehner has weathered calls to lift the debt ceiling and fund the government. But facing this deadline, Boehner would have a tougher time resisting a bipartisan agreement with the nation teetering on economic disaster.

Some in leadership believe there is some win for Republicans in this proposal. Ryan gets his budget conference and Republicans get the government reopened and the debt ceiling lifted for a short period of time, instead of the yearlong increase Democrats were seeking. Republicans also get to the government funding and debt ceiling fight separate, as conservatives wanted.

They have another “bite at the apple,” as Boehner would say, to enact budgetary reforms. Ryan, whom many see as the most trusted voice in the party, would get a chance to hash out a budget deal with Democrats and Obama — something he and Boehner have yearned for.

Of course, there’s also a lot of risk for Republicans here. Washington would face another budget crisis Jan. 15, when government funding runs out and the next round of sequestration is slated to hit. The debt ceiling will need to be lifted again sometime from February to April — depending on how much revenue the government collects — which places the fight just months before the 2014 midterm elections. Plus, appropriators will again be peeved because the deal’s duration cuts into their ability to pass an omnibus spending bill.

But Boehner is well aware of the negotiations and how they are progressing. His senior aides have been in touch with McConnell’s, and the two men met late Monday afternoon. Boehner’s staff has also been in touch with the White House.

Republican leaders learned much Monday as members trickled back into town, and will learn even more Tuesday morning, in the closed party meeting.