The wages of 10 million low-paid workers have stalled for two decades and face pressure for a decade to come, according to a bleak assessment of Britain’s future jobs market.

Global economic competition, automation, the shift to the gig economy and a widening regional divide will see further pressure placed on the incomes of those earning between £10,000 and £15,000, it warns.

The analysis by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) thinktank, which is on the political right and chaired by the former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, also blamed a chronic national failure to boost skills and education. It will be seen as another warning to Theresa May from Conservative figures to kickstart her domestic agenda. There have been concerns within the party that the focus on Brexit has led to inaction in other crucial areas that could hold Britain back after its exit from the European Union.

The analysis, co-written by Boris Johnson’s former economic adviser and Brexit supporter Gerard Lyons, concludes that wages of those on the lowest salaries stalled long before the 2008 financial crash. It warns that the current evidence shows that most never escape a life on low pay. The centre’s support for action on low pay shows that it is now an issue of concern across the political spectrum, with automation expected to place further pressure on jobs in some low-paid sectors unless new skills and opportunities are developed.

The CSJ report states that 20% of Britain’s 33 million workers earn £15,000 a year or less, and that 50% earn no more than £23,200. Only 10% of employees, or about 3 million people, earn above £53,000 a year.

Britain does not compare well with other developed nations when it comes to low pay, it states. Taking data from manufacturing, and giving the US a score of 100, Switzerland topped the table with a pay rate of 155, followed by Norway on 126, Germany on 111 and France on 97. However, the UK was much further behind, on 73.

While the report shares concerns about low pay, it argues that the UK should prepare for automation by stripping back taxes and regulation. “The biggest opportunity for the UK is to unleash the potential of the private sector, particularly small and medium-sized firms, helped by lower regulations and taxes,” it states.

“The wider macroeconomic environment has driven some of these changes. Globalisation has added to intense competition, suppressing costs and wage growth.”

It warns of the reliance of the UK economy on the financial sector, Britain’s continuing budget deficit and the regional imbalances between London and the rest of the country.

Half the people employed in so-called elementary occupations, such as bar staff, clerks, care workers and labourers, are on low pay, as defined by two-thirds of the median income of £25,000 a year.

It urges a skills overhaul to deal with the coming pressures. The authors conclude: “The British labour market has changed significantly in the last 20 years. There are more people in work than at any time on record, driven partially by a growth in the number of women entering the workforce, the increase in the number of people working part-time, people working far longer into old age, and a large influx of workers from abroad.

“This far more diverse workforce is increasingly employed in the service sector, as manufacturing has continued to cut the number of workers, and mobility between low-paid, low-skilled jobs and high-paid, high-skilled jobs seems to be decreasing.”

Other research suggests there is better news for those on low pay. The Resolution Foundation thinktank recently found that a smaller proportion of UK workers are low paid now than at any time since the early 1980s, due to above-inflation increases in the government’s national living wage. The national minimum wage has risen from £6.70 in 2016 to £7.50 in 2017 and £7.83 from April 2018.