Five bold predictions for the Final Four

Scott Gleeson | USA TODAY Sports

Show Caption Hide Caption How to beat Kentucky in the Final Four USA TODAY Sports' Scott Gleeson discusses the game plan to beating undefeated (38-0) Kentucky.

And then there were four.

Each Final Four team offers a different story. Kentucky is on a quest to finish as the first undefeated college basketball team since 1976.

A veteran Wisconsin squad in its second consecutive Final Four is determined to reverse last April's results. Like UConn last season, seventh-seeded Michigan Statehit its stride at the perfect time. And Duke features the most storied coach in Mike Krzyzewski (in his 12th Final Four) and a future NBA lottery pick in freshman Jahlil Okafor.

Five days from tip-off in Indianapolis, here are five predictions you wouldn't expect:

1. Kentucky will not win it all. The Wildcats are undefeated yet far from invincible as Notre Dame illustrated in the Elite Eight and several SEC teams showed. The 38-0 Wildcats are trying to be the first D-I to complete an unbeaten season since Indiana in 1976. How do you beat a team with one of the best frontcourts in college basketball history? Exploit the not-as-dominant backcourt and shoot a high percentage. Easier said than done, but Wisconsin is an ideal team to deny history here. The Badgers have far less talent but match up well against the Wildcats and are disciplined on both ends. Plus, Wisconsin's two best players, Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, provide a versatile one-two punch that Kentucky hasn't had to deal with all season.

Final Four preview: No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky USA TODAY Sports' Scott Gleeson and Nancy Armour preview the Final Four matchup between Kentucky and Wisconsin.

2. An unsung hero (someone not Frank Kaminsky or Sam Dekker) will lead Wisconsin to victory. Speaking of Kaminsky and Dekker, Wisconsin will need strong performances from those two to beat Kentucky. But the key ingredient will be a role player. Nigel Hayes, Josh Gasser, Bronson Koenig and Traevon Jackson will play pivotal roles. One of them will need to have a breakout game. Hayes is fully capable. The 6-7 sophomore is a much better player than he was when Kentucky and Wisconsin met in last year's Final Four. He wasn't particularly effective against Arizona, finishing with eight points on 3-for-6 shooting, but he's had several big games this season, including a 25-point performance against Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament final.

3. A player without a serious NBA future will be the Most Outstanding Player. Gauging the history of the tournament's MOP award winners, it's usually a college star, not a future NBA star, who excels on college hoops' grandest stage. Shabazz Napier, Luke Hancock and Kyle Singler are three of the last four award winners. A favorite from each team this year:

Wisconsin: Nigel Hayes.

Nigel Hayes. Kentucky: Aaron Harrison.

Aaron Harrison. Michigan State: Travis Trice.

Travis Trice. Duke: Quinn Cook.

4. Duke's potent offense will hit a brick wall. The Blue Devils have a dynamic offense that's difficult to stop. The predicament opponents find themselves in: Double-team Jahlil Okafor or risk getting burned in man-to-man coverage. The problem with double-teaming Okafor? Quinn Cook, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones and most recently Matt Jones are all capable of lighting it up from beyond the arc. All that being said, the toughest defensive team Duke's faced has been Utah. Michigan State can contain Okafor and is limiting opponents to 25% three-point shooting in the tournament. In that matchup, defense will outdo offense.

5. Michigan State will win it all. The Spartans have an underrated ingredient for a Final Four team: Momentum. Michigan State's emergence as a contender has been fast and unexpected but when considering the pieces — veterans Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine and Branden Dawson — and how great this team is playing defensively — limiting opponents to 61 points a game in the tournament, there's no reason to consider No. 7 seed Michigan State an underdog. Michigan State will beat Duke because it's better defensively. If the Spartans draw Wisconsin in the title game, as predicted above, their overtime loss in the Big Ten tournament final shows they're capable of pulling of an upset.