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Abiy has also made bold foreign policy moves, formally ending a 20-year military standoff with Eritrea, which seceded from Ethiopia in 1993 after decades of bloody war.

The award also thwarts for at least another year President Donald Trump’s dream of picking up a Nobel.

At a Sept. 23 press conference, Trump said, “I think I’m going to get a Nobel Prize for a lot of things — if they gave it out fairly, which they don’t.”

Why was Thunberg passed over? How could so many forecasters have been so wrong?

The peace prize selection process is highly secretive — all the committee would reveal was that there were 301 nominations this year. The names of some contenders are made public by their nominators. Thunberg, for instance, was nominated by three Norwegian lawmakers. But the full list won’t be released for 50 years.

It can also be hard to anticipate the winner because the selection reflects the idiosyncrasies of five individuals picked by the Norwegian parliament.

That doesn’t stop people from guessing — or betting — on the winner. On Thursday night, Thunberg was the favourite with bookmaker William Hill (2/5) and Coral (4/7).

But she had several factors working against her, according to analysts who have followed the award.

Henrik Urdal, the head of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, omitted Thunberg from the Nobel Peace Prize shortlist he publishes.

He explained his decision to The Washington Post, saying there “isn’t scientific consensus that there is a linear relationship between climate change — or resource scarcity, more broadly — and armed conflict.”