TORONTO

Is Toronto — ground zero for latte-sipping elitists and the Liberal machine — poised to paint itself Tory blue in the next provincial race?

A Forum poll, released exclusively to the Toronto Sun, shows that the Progressive Conservative lead in Toronto over the Kathleen Wynne-led Liberals has jumped four percentage points in the last month — with 36% of those polled saying they’d vote Tory in the 2018 election, compared to 31% for the Grits.

The poll of 966 Toronto voters — from March 8-10 — shows the PC tide prevails despite Wynne’s attempts to buy back support with her March 1 promise to lower Hydro rates by 25%.

Tory Leader Patrick Brown and his PCs are commanding huge leads in the former North York, York and Etobicoke and are running neck and neck with the Liberals in Scarborough.

The downtown chattering classes and residents of the former East York seem to be the only Liberal holdouts in this latest poll — not surprising given the Lib-left grip on downtown and East York wards on Toronto city council. But the NDP is not far behind in both those areas of the city.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said the poll numbers show a continuing “shift away” from the Liberals and if they hold up until the June 2018 election, Wynne and her Liberals would be in “big, big trouble” in Toronto.

“One would expect that Toronto is where the Liberals are the strongest,” he said. “These are Tory sweep kind of numbers.”

To say the Liberals are strong (and have traditionally been strong) in Toronto is an understatement.

I saw it when I ran in the 2009 St. Paul’s byelection as a PC candidate against Liberal Eric Hoskins and knocked on doors where residents insisted they’d voted Liberal since the dawn of time and would never change, no matter what.

Save for PC Raymond Cho’s September 2016 surprise byelection win in Scarborough—Rouge River and two NDP ridings, Toronto is a Liberal stranglehold.

All 19 of the remaining 22 seats are held by Liberals — no matter how much arrogance and disdain they show towards voters, no matter how much they mortgage our future and no matter how much they ruin health care. And let’s not forget how the Liberals have sidelined doctors, kowtowed to their favourite unions and made a mess of most things they deal with — most specifically hydro.

I have forever wondered when voters would have enough and perhaps the time has finally come.

Let’s be practical however. The election is still more than a year out and it all depends on what Brown does to convince voters (particularly in Toronto) he can win. For far too many, he’s still very much an unknown entity.

It also depends on what the Liberals plan to do with their hugely unpopular leader, although there is little strength on the benches and I can’t for the life of me think of one cabinet minister who’d re-energize their dying fortunes.

Bozinoff said the latest poll numbers reflect a number of things that the Wynne Liberals have not addressed (other than with the latest Band-Aid) including hydro rates and the real estate bubble that has made homes unaffordable in Toronto.

He said people are just generally tired of “seeing the same politicians on TV” — all with the “baggage of 14 years in government.”

There’s also the Trump effect. Bozinoff said Wynne is just “not connecting well” with the average Ontarian and the daily issues they face.

The poll showed another interesting connection between party affiliation and who would vote for Toronto mayor.

Those more likely to support the PCs are 45-64 years of age, male, wealthier and would vote for Doug Ford for Toronto mayor. Liberal supporters in this poll are 65-plus, transit riders and would support John Tory.

Click here for the full poll results.

slevy@postmedia.com