The report by the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) paints a dismal picture for the state, which is facing one of the worst droughts in recent history. The real picture of the impact of the drought on the state’s agri-production, drinking water availability and power production would emerge in next four to five years, says the report.

Impact on agriculture

Rice productivity in the state could see a decline of 35-40 per cent warns the KSDMA report based on data provided by the Agriculture Department. High acidity in paddy fields due to scanty rain and excessive weed growth could prove detrimental to paddy crop, the report says. Button shedding and immature nut fall in coconuts and reduction of bunch size for banana crop is also predicted. Pepper will see a reduction of 25-35 per cent in yield and the drought has already impacted the cool season vegetable cultivation in districts like Idukki.

Impact on water sources

Ground water levels have shown a decline of as much as six metres in some parts of Thiruvananthapuram and upto five metres in Idukki as per the latest official statistics. “The drop in groundwater level this year is even worse than that recorded in 1983 when Kerala was under the grip of severe drought,” said said Babu N Joseph, Director, Kerala Groundwater Department. Indiscriminate use of groundwater for agricultural purposes, especially in northern districts of Kerala has compounded the problem, Joseph said stressing the need of imposing strict curbs on use of groundwater for non-drinkng purposes. Realising the gravity of the drought situation, the government has allocated Rs 13 crores to theGroundwater Department to augment water availability.

Impact on power sector

The inflow at KSEB reservoirs was 40 per cent lower than expected primarily due to thefailure of the south-west monsoon. Power generation from the Idukki hydroelectric project has dropped to its lowest since the commissioning of the project in 1974.

Hydel power generation targeted during the current year was about 6993 MU. However, the state could produce only 5382.10 MU - a deficit of 1610.9 during the current financial year. This has forced the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) to procure energy form costly thermal sources up to Rs 14 per unit. Assuming the average rate of Rs 10 per unit, the additional liability on KSEB would be about `1610.90 crore. The inflow to reservoirs is not expected to improve much even with occasional the summer showers, says the report.

Bleak days ahead?

According to Dr Sekhar Kuriakose, Head of the Hazard Vulnerability And Risk Assessment Cell of the KSDMA, the drought is the severest once since 1983. “It is first time in the history of Kerala that the entire state has been declared drought-hit,” he said. “The actual impact of the drought will unfold over the next four-five years. Due to the drought, widely cultivated crops like coconut will suffer from crop wilting, affecting overall productivity. At least 4-5 normal monsoons will be needed for it to regain productivity,” he said.