Poll finds strong support for first part of Coalition plan only, which offers cuts to low-income earners

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

Voters are strongly in favour of the Turnbull government’s tax cut for low and middle income earners, but are considerably more cool on tax relief for high flyers, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

With the Senate set to resolve the fate of the package in the final two sitting weeks before the winter break, the fortnightly survey finds 79% of a sample of 1,027 voters support stage one of the income tax cuts, while only 37% support stage three, which involves flattening the tax scales so workers earning between $40,000 and $200,000 pay the same rate.

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The poll also shows a positive shift by voters in favour of Bill Shorten’s alternative proposal to almost double the tax cut for low and middle income earners and impose higher tax rates on the top income earners.

Asked whether they preferred the Turnbull government’s plan of providing tax relief up the income scales, or Labor’s plan of a larger rebate for the lower end and higher taxes at the top of the scale – 50% of the sample backed the Labor alternative.

All income groups surveyed favoured the Labor alternative, even those earning more than $2,000 a week, by a margin of 50% to 36%. Since the same question was asked just after budget week, there has been a five-point shift in Labor’s favour.

The government’s plan to cut taxes for Australia’s largest corporations also continues to divide the Guardian Essential sample, with 39% in favour and 39% opposed, and voters divided on partisan lines. Coalition voters were more inclined to support the proposal (56% support/28% oppose) while Labor voters were more likely to oppose it (29% support/51% oppose).

With critical byelection contests under way in several states and the results on 28 July important to both major party leaders, the new poll shows the Coalition has rebounded slightly from a slide in voter support captured during the renewed furore about the private travails of the former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce that coincided with a paid interview on the Seven Network.

Joyce’s headline domination correlated with a four-point drop in the Coalition’s primary vote, which saw Labor extend its long term opinion poll lead over the Coalition to 54% to 46% on the two-party preferred measure a fortnight ago.

With the Joyce sideshow currently minimised, the gap between the major parties has narrowed again, with Labor still in front on the two-party-preferred measure 52% to 48%. The Coalition’s primary vote improved by two points (38%) and Labor’s primary vote fell by two points (35%).

The Guardian Essential poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three points.

Survey respondents were also asked about ABC funding – with the national broadcaster back in the headlines again after government complaints about the conduct of various ABC journalists, and the Liberal party’s peak council voting overwhelmingly on the weekend to privatise the ABC.

There was support for funding increases to the ABC for local content and film production and for emergency broadcasts. More voters supported maintaining current funding levels for local news, news and current affairs, and children’s content rather than increasing the current budgets.

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There were also questions about Australia’s international alliances given the past fortnight was dominated by Donald Trump’s arguments with traditional allies and with his rapprochement with North Korea.

The North Korean summit divided Australian voters – 35% thought the agreement between Trump and Kim Jong-un would make the world safer, 8% thought less safe and 41% thought it would make no difference.

Respondents were asked about their views of various world leaders. New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern and Canada’s Justin Trudeau got the thumbs up from more than half the sample (54%).

Coalition voters were more likely to have a favourable view of British prime minister Theresa May (55%), French president Emmanuel Macron (51%), and Trump (30%). Labor voters were keen on Ardern (61% favourable).

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The main changes since the questions were last asked a year ago was increased favourability for May (up 9%) and Trump (up 6%).

Half the survey believes the US alliance is important for Australia, while 47% think it is important to have a close relationship with the UK and 39% with China.

Coalition voters are more positive about the importance of the US alliance than Labor and the Greens. Since this question was last asked, people are warmer about Australia’s alliance with the US, and cooler on Australia’s relationship with China and Germany (down 4%).