ALBANY — The nation's largest climate change program is back on the drawing board, with New York and eight other Northeast states now debating future goals on keeping greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere.

In place since 2009, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative charges electric power plant owners for emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that an international scientific consensus blames for ongoing man-made climate change.

In New York, environmental groups are invoking Superstorm Sandy to ask for stricter emission limits to combat worsening climate change, while business leaders favor a lighter touch that would keep emission fees from escalating and possibly driving up power bills.

State Environmental Conservation Commissioner Joe Martens will meet Tuesday in New York City with leaders from other RGGI states to discuss anticipated changes in 2014 to the program's keystone — an annual limit, or cap, on total CO2 that all power plants can emit.

"We expect the states will further refine their proposed changes, conduct additional analyses and review all with stakeholders before deciding," according to a statement from Marten's office. "We cannot speculate on whether any final decisions will be made."

The program also includes Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont. Martens' office could not provide comment on his meetings.

"RGGI states are effectively setting the bar for climate efforts nationwide," said Peter Shattuck, director of market initiatives at the not-for-profit Environment Northeast, based in Rockport, Mass., which issued a report Monday on the program. "In the wake of Sandy, governors have a real opportunity to demonstrate leadership by addressing the root cause of climate change; the question is whether or not they will seize it."

Under RGGI, plant owners must purchase state-issued credits to cover emissions as the cap eventually drops. States use that money raised from credits to fund energy-efficiency and green job programs. Over the past three years, New York has raised more than $410 million from RGGI while adding less than 50 cents a month to the average residential power bill.

Looking at emissions, it might appear at first glance that RGGI has been wildly successful. The regional cap set in 2009 was 165 million tons of CO2, when actual emissions turned out to be 110 million tons. This year, projections show about 91 million tons will be emitted.

But something unforeseen happened to trigger that drop — a boom in hydrofracked natural gas. Gas prices have plummeted, and since gas emits much less CO2 than coal and oil, and is now much cheaper as well, more power plant owners have switched fuels. Electricity prices have sunk 10 percent since RGGI started.

As CO2 emissions dropped, so did the price of the credits and a huge glut of unsold credits developed. Now, power companies are sitting on a surplus of cheap credits large enough to cover greenhouse gas emissions for year.

A group representing plant owners, The Business Council of New York, urged that the program cap not be pushed down to allow for more flexibility and keep credit prices low, in a letter last week to the RGGI leaders.

"Our comprehensive concerns about this program are rooted in the inefficiency of the program itself to address climate change, balanced with the price tag," wrote Darren Suarez, director of government affairs for the council.

The RGGI states are debating four different caps, three of which are above current emissions — 106 million tons, 101 million tons and 97 million tons. The fourth cap would be the current emissions level of 91 million tons.

Environmental groups are urging an even tighter cap. "Devastation wrought by Superstorm Sandy has opened many eyes to the grim reality of climate pollution," according to a letter last week from groups including Environmental Advocates of New York, Environment America, Alliance for Clean Energy New York and the Conservation Law Foundation.

The groups want a cap of 85 million tons that gradually declines so that emissions would gradually fall 20 percent below current levels by 2020, and fall 80 percent by 2050, a goal set by many scientists as necessary to avoid extreme climate change.

The larger caps being debated, along with a credit reserve fund being considered by RGGI states, "leaves open the possibility for greater pollution in years ahead," according to the group's letter.

bnearing@timesunion.com • 518-454-5094 • @Bnearing10