There is a long shadow hanging over the Conservative Party of Canada’s leadership campaign. For most, it is a portentous gloom while, for some, a source of optimism, even joy.

That shadow is the electoral success of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and his imminent inauguration as the 45th president of the United States.

The Conservative party virtually ignored the election, afraid of the Canadian media hacks who take their editorial direction on U.S. news from CNN and the New York Times.

They couldn’t overtly support Trump and they didn’t want to endorse Democrat Hillary Clinton. They wouldn’t allow themselves to be enthused by all those energized and mobilized voters who supported Trump either for his populism or for his undeniable appeal to many conservative Republican voters. Trump was branded crazy, racist, sexist and a demagogue routinely by Canadian media, and Conservatives were afraid to suggest otherwise,

Now that Trump is poised to take power, and in fact is already doing so with his weekly policy announcements and economic initiatives, he is enjoying growing support and dawning credibility amongst many U.S. voters who never thought they could stomach a Trump presidency. There is even a pervading sense of optimism.

It remains to be seen how the Conservative Party of Canada and those seeking to lead will respond to the Trump phenomenon going forward.

Here is a rundown of the players, the hopefuls and the inevitable also-rans.

1.Former Ontario MP Chris Alexanderis a long-shot candidate in this race, but so are most in this lineup. This is a campaign unimpaired by the presence of an unstoppable front-runner or even a hugely recognizable name. Alexander is a curious blend of ideology: He advocates doubling defence spending — something that has only occurred during the Second World War — while supporting the finalization of all First Nations land claims treaties. While he positioned himself on the right with the controversial phone line to report “barbaric cultural practices,” he proposes a liberal immigration policy that increases this country’s annual numbers to 400,000. As Harper’s minister of immigration, he bungled his piece of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, exacerbating the agricultural labour shortage by giving short shrift to low skilled workers. He recently completely mishandled an event at the Alberta legislature where opponents of Premier Rachel Notley chanted “lock her up” in sincere imitation of a Donald Trump rally baiting Hillary Clinton. Left-wing critics say he didn’t speak out against this supposed outrage quickly enough while a lot of conservatives would have loved to see him show some political courage and join the chorus.

2. Quebec MP Maxime Bernier, 53, (Beauce) used to be big, as they say. As the jovial and jocular foreign affairs minister, Bernier was once pegged as a natural successor to Stephen Harper, until he left some classified documents at his girlfriend’s apartment, who in turn was linked to biker gangs. Nonetheless, Bernier is appealing to many as that rare libertarian from welfare-state Quebec. He favours limited government, a 10 per cent corporate tax and sometimes talks like a character in an Ayn Rand novel; he wants to reduce the CBC to something resembling a public affairs and documentaries channel like its U.S. cousin, PBS. It would also have to start fundraising to raise money. Bernier is also adamantly opposed to a carbon tax, though he repels social conservatives for his extremely liberal social policies. Bernier has limited caucus support but could well be a surprise compromise candidate if it comes down to Anything But A Red Tory as a Conservative rallying cry.

3. Another Quebec MP Steven Blaney, 51, (Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Levis) had the prominent public safety portfolio in the Harper government but he remains somewhat indefinable, never having taken a controversial position (with the possible exception of supporting a partial niqab ban) and lacking the sort of feisty personality that serves politicians so well. He was also veterans affairs minister for two years but left there without being able to point to any major accomplishments and enduring fairly chronic criticism from veterans groups who thought the Tories were all talk and little action when it came to looking after military personnel who often return from deployments with physical or mental issues that get them ejected from the service and neglected by VA. He lacks support in caucus.

4. Michael Chong, 45,(Wellington-Halton Hills) is vague voice from the Harper era that inspires uncertainty. This Ontario MP crossed Harper over recognition of Quebec as a nation and resigned from cabinet, thus earning plaudits from the Conservative grassroots who deeply resented the notion. He earned some non-partisan applause for his efforts on behalf of the Reform Act that sought to give individual MPs more power over their party leaders. Thus far in the leadership campaign, he has sounded increasingly like just another Red Tory whose trepidation of a Conservative party becoming more like the U.S. Republican Party is shrill and pronounced. Still considered a maverick who won’t play ball, Chong has little chance of galvanizing whatever base in the party might find his mercurial policy positions appealing.

5. Ontario MPKellie Leitch, 46, (Simcoe-Grey) could be the surprise winner in this contest. She has induced absolute euphoria in the conservative base of the party with her insistence that immigrants subscribe to “Canadian values” before being granted citizenship. Leitch was labour minister under Harper without a high profile but the leadership race has dramatically altered that. Recently Leitch called for the privatization of CBC and Conservative faithful again were reduced to tears of joy. She’s a hardliner on marijuana as well, and opposes legalization of the drug for recreational purposes. Of all the candidates, Leitch was the only one to openly support Donald Trump’s candidacy as “an exciting message and one that we need in Canada as well.” If Conservatives become hip to that idea, of fusing conservative values with blue-collar alienation, Leitch could well be the next leader of the Conservative Party, riding a populist wave in Canada that is just as tired of listening to the liberal mainstream media tell them what to think, how to behave and who to listen to. The revolution might be coming to Canada soon.

6. Pierre Lemieux, 53, is a former Ontario MP with a solid conservative agenda, including being an outspoken opponent of abortion. His advocacy was never popular in the Harper government, so Lemieux never rose above the level of parliamentary secretary. Though he never made it to cabinet, Lemieux’s remarkably long tenure as PS to minister of agriculture (2008-15) gave him the corporate knowledge in the department and was recognized for his work with farmers, who considered him a true friend and ally. Lemieux is supported by the Campaign Life Coalition but has virtually no support within the caucus and is really only running to underline the Conservative party’s craven inability to articulate an abortion policy.

7. Dan Lindsay, 60, is the president of Manitoba College of Physicians and Surgeons and has served as a civilian doctor with the Canadian Armed Forces in five separate overseas deployments, including Afghanistan. He has little support.

8. Deepak Obhrai, 66, (Calgary Forest Lawn) has never been in cabinet but has been a parliamentary secretary on the Foreign Affairs committee and has been around the block more than a few times as a long-serving Alberta MP. Though not part of the original Class of ’93 Reform Party MPs, Obhrai has been in the House since 1997 and is considered a key figure in the party’s outreach program to ethnic communities. Retaining his seat against many nomination challenges has made him a tough contender. Non-ideological, Obhrai has managed to portray himself as anything from a hard-line Reformer to liberal Red Tory. His support in caucus is almost non-existent, where he is viewed as reliable and adaptable but not leadership material.

9. Erin O’Toole, 43, (Durham, Ont.) is a former Air Force navigator who became a lawyer after he left the Canadian Armed Forces. O’Toole earned high praise while serving fleetingly as minister of veterans affairs. Veterans were not happy when O’Toole replaced Julian Fantino but the incoming minister pledged himself to action and change while listening to criticism. On his leadership campaign website, O’Toole promises that he “will devote every day to ensuring that Canadians have: safe communities for our children, an economy that creates good jobs, and a fair tax system that keeps more money in the hands of working families.” He invites supporters to send him their policy ideas. O’Toole has obvious abilities, is taken seriously by his caucus but he needs to open his policy basket to attract party faithful.

10. Rick Peterson, 61, is a venture capitalist with his company, Peterson Capital, and a party fundraiser.

11. Lisa Raitt, 48, (Milton, Ont.) was a prominent minister of labour who got the trains running again during a strike. And speaking of trains, she also deftly stick handled the Lac-Mégantic train disaster, which led to a Transport Canada shakeup. Initially considered an obvious and desirable candidate, she is the only one of the prominent Conservative cabinet ministers who actually entered the race: high-profile Tories such as John Baird, Jason Kenney and Peter MacKay all walked away. Raitt is the other female candidate in this race (in addition to Leitch) but she has virtually positioned herself as the last best hope of the Red Tories to free the party from what they consider to be a neo-conservative imprisonment under Stephen Harper. Raitt is a photogenic, smart and aggressive politician who probably has more potential support than many in caucus are prepared to admit. Definitely not one who applauded Trump’s victory in November, she could well be the standard bearer for a softer conservatism that looks and acts like Justin Trudeau liberalism — and potentially sinks in the electoral waters like also-ran Progressive Conservative leader Robert Stanfield when he ran against Pierre Trudeau.

12. Andrew Saxton, 52, is a former Vancouver MP and a parliamentary secretary for finance, the treasury board and western diversification.

13. At first glance, you might spot a front-runner in this race with Andrew Scheer, 37, (Regina-Qu’Appelle, Sask.) While every other candidate has either no discernable caucus support or at best can point to a smattering of friendly parliamentarians, Scheer enjoys deep-dish approval from a host of MPs, senators and provincial politicians. But, as Scheer well knows, these aren’t the people who ultimately allow you to win. Scheer was more than a capable Speaker and his judgments were appraised by most to be both well-considered and relatively non-partisan. But though Scheer is running as an “unapologetic” conservative, that might be because he truly has nothing to apologize for. Scheer has avoided taking controversial stands, and even though he is supported by the Campaign Life Coalition for his abortion views, his opinions on a variety of ideological issues are latent. His role as Speaker provided a convenient and perfectly appropriate cover to avoid hot-button issues and that has enabled him to promulgate his own political image in this campaign. But Scheer is, by any standard, very young to be leader, and that, more than anything, will probably prevent him from taking the prize.

14. Brad Trost, 42, (Saskatoon-University) is another likeable social conservative who is routinely vilified by media because he opposes same-sex marriage and abortion. Harper denied Trost any major portfolio but the Saskatchewan MP worked hard at what he could: founding the Conservative Party energy caucus, doing well-respected work with natural resources, international trade and industry committees. Trost has no support in caucus and very little organization outside of that. He is running on principle and hopes to highlight the social policy gaps in the Conservative Party.

It’s all over on May 27, 2017. This is the battle not just to become the next leader of the opposition and potentially the next prime minister, but a contest over whom will decide the ideological future of the Conservative Party. Will it trump the Liberals and NDP with a newly fashioned conservatism or remain in opposition with pusillanimous policies and a desultory direction? Stay tuned.

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David Krayden is a former Air Force public affairs officer and Parliament Hill communications manager who has worked in print, radio and television journalism. He writes and speaks about Canadian politics.