The Washoe County Democratic Party is bracing for a flood.

Minutes ahead of last week’s second Democratic debate — a full eight months before the county’s presidential caucus — party leaders were scrambling for spare couches and extra bedrooms to house a surge of campaign teams already sweeping into Nevada. Later, they pleaded for more volunteers to explain new caucus rules to a potential torrent of first-time voters.

They know something national pundits and pollsters sometimes seem to forget: Nevada is going to play a huge role in picking the party’s next presidential candidate.

The Silver State is a relative newcomer among early voting states, and often misses out on the relentless polling and press attention lavished on the other, long-established first stops for presidential contenders.

But Nevada is the first West Coast state to weigh in on the 2020 primary election process, and one of very few that might make or break a potential challenger to President Donald Trump.

That’s because voters here are much more diverse than their counterparts in Iowa or New Hampshire, making Nevada’s third-in-the-nation caucus the best early predictor of a candidate’s chances in other states.

Nevada is also home to a sizable population of unionized casino and restaurant workers, offering Democratic hopefuls a useful test of their ability to shore up support from working class voters and organized labor groups.

None of this is lost on the candidates, who have made nearly 70 stops in Nevada since the 2016 presidential election.

Some, such as former Obama cabinet secretary Julian Castro, appear to have placed all their chips on winning the Silver State. Others, namely U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, will hope to use it as a momentum-builder heading into South Carolina and the critical batch of primary contests on Super Tuesday.

All 25 candidates will want the blessing of senator-turned-kingmaker Harry Reid — architect of the fabled voter turnout machine that helped Democrats score victories up and down the ballot in 2018.

Add it all up, and Nevadans will have the kind of influence voters in most other states only dream about.

“We know all eyes are going to be on Nevada,” Washoe Democratic Party Chairwoman Sarah Mahler told about two dozen party faithful gathered to watch Thursday’s debate at the party’s Reno headquarters. “No offense to Iowa and New Hampshire, but they’re just not reflective of the rest of the country.

“Nevada is going to be a bellwether.”

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Latino voters seen as key

The story of how Nevada became a bellwether can be summed up in one word —diversity.

The state’s growing Hispanic population helped Reid make the case for elbowing Nevada into an early caucus position in 2008, and it’s helped state leaders defend that vaunted spot ever since.

Nevada is now a majority-minority state, where Hispanics account for about 30 percent of the population. The state remains nearly half non-Hispanic white, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. About 11 percent of residents are Asian, American Indian or Pacific Islander, while roughly 10 percent are African American.

If a Democratic candidate wants to win Nevada, they’ll have to do well with those voters.

“I saw it firsthand in my race when I ran in 2015 for the Senate, and I’ll be the first to tell you I could not have done it without those populations, particularly the Latino population in Nevada,” said U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev.

Masto, speaking in a June conference call with reporters, said candidates need to reach out to Hispanic communities early, often and with more than a one-note message about border issues or Trump.

She said they also need to find voters where they live and work, even if it means pounding the Southern Nevada pavement in 110-degree heat. Such efforts may not have the well-worn, camera-friendly charm of an Iowa state fair or a backyard barbecue in South Carolina, but they could pay many of the same dividends.

“If you can come to Nevada and be successful, you can win anywhere,” Masto said. “It’s a demographic microcosm of the rest of the country."

“It’s more than just being anti-Trump,” she added. “(Latino voters) are looking for someone who’s going to fight for them on education, jobs and health care.”

So who’s doing that best so far?

Masto said none of the roughly two dozen Democratic hopefuls have a “particular advantage” in the Silver State.

Candidates tout outreach efforts

The top four candidates in that race hope she’s wrong.

Vedant Patel, Nevada spokesman for former vice president and early front-runner Joe Biden, said Biden is taking Nevada "incredibly seriously," despite logging just two visits to the state.

Patel said the campaign has a “robust and intentional community organizing program” targeting minority communities, as well as a full organizing team in Washoe County. Biden has also won over state Sen. Yvanna Cancela, the influential former political director for the Culinary Union.

Harris, the California senator who surged in the polls after trading blows with Biden in last week’s debate, is working to mobilize minority voters by holding meetings with groups such as One APIA Nevada, a nonprofit representing Asians and Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics in Politics.

Harris’ campaign reports she has picked up several big-name Southern Nevada endorsements since the debate, among them Clark County Commissioner Justin Jones and former county Democratic Party Chair Chris Miller. Harris has also gained support from Janet Serial, chair of the Black Caucus of Washoe County.

Of course, the most direct way to secure a diverse coalition of Nevada voters is to win over the Culinary Union — the state’s most effective driver of Hispanic turnout.

Aides for Harris and fellow U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., both reported meeting with the high-powered labor group. Sanders’ campaign said he had also met with the Service Employees International Union and AFSCME, the nation’s largest public employees union.

Elizabeth Warren — the progressive Massachusetts senator who trailed only Biden in the most recent poll of likely Nevada caucusgoers — said in a campaign statement that she “has met with or is planning to meet with all the labor groups across the state.”

A Warren campaign aide boasted of hiring 40 full-time workers and numerous interns in the Silver State, including 10 in the Reno area. Sanders’ camp said he had a growing, 35-person staff looking to build on the two-time presidential candidate’s strong showing during Nevada’s 2016 caucus.

Reid, unions not showing their hand

Both progressive firebrands enjoy some structural advantages in Nevada. Warren has scored support from key ex-Reid staffers, while Sanders may benefit from former campaigners now working in state and local Democratic headquarters.

But by and large, political experts agree with Masto that no one candidate has cornered Nevada just yet.

Eric Herzik, a professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Reno, wouldn't be surprised if Reid and the Culinary Union end up unlocking the race.

So far, both are keeping quiet about their intentions.

“Right now, the candidates are just trying to come in and knock on all the important doors,” Herzik said. “They want to talk to Reid, they want to talk to Culinary.

“But that’s all kind of groundwork. The public’s not paying attention and I don’t know that Reid is trying to push one candidate over another.”

Nevada’s Democratic caucus is scheduled for Feb. 22, 2020.

The Democratic National Committee is expected to approve some major proposed changes to the state party’s candidate-picking process. Those include tweaks that will add four days of early voting the week before the caucus, as well as two days of virtual caucuses. The caucus will remain open only to registered Democrats who reside in Nevada.

For more information on the changes, visit nvdems.org.

James DeHaven is the politics reporter for the Reno Gazette Journal. He covers campaigns, the Nevada Legislature and everything in between. Support his work by subscribing to RGJ.com right here.