Gamesmith94134: The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

“Will alpha eventually go to zero for every imaginable investment strategy?”

Rationally, it is a possibility. I would agree with Curtis Carpenter that computer will squeeze out human intelligent and invent their own financial instruments (derivative based derivatives and computational risk swaps. Perhaps, we look back to the recent refinancing of the euro in 2014 that swaps are often used till equity market erupted in 2008. It means the irrational exuberance can be created after zero, that Exponential Finance may not be captured in a trading algorithm today as well.

Of course, since the interest rate is at the bottom, it would be alpha all the way. But, in history, regardless how the science advances, often we miss the market by miles like oil glut and gold rush; who can claim winner at all time? Not with American or Chinese. Even though we knew Chinese flush out 5 ton of gold to stand $1100, will the India buy them all or American turns idle from the glut till $900? Again, you may guess the outcomes of the collapse of the recent Chinese Stock market or the Russian Ruble fallen 40-80 a dollar? But it seems they are all well. Perhaps, the mirage of the Financial Singularity is right, it is just too rational, and human capital is not, especially, when sovereignty is on the contest.

May the Buddha bless you?

