Michigan population increases for 8th straight year, but remains under 10 million

Kristi Tanner | Detroit Free Press

Michigan, we're oh, so close to returning to the 10-million mark for population.

According to new U.S. Census population estimates released Monday, the state grew by 0.03%, or 2,785 residents, from a year earlier to an estimated population of 9,986,857 on July 1, 2019.

It was the eighth consecutive year of population gains since the 2010 Census. The last time the state's population was 10 million or higher was in 2007, before the recession.

Loading...

Population estimates are based on several factors, including births, deaths and migration patterns. The latest estimates show more people are leaving the state compared with those moving in, what researchers call net migration, for a total loss of 10,524 residents between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019.

Nationwide, the natural increase in population, births minus deaths, has been slowing. Michigan is one of 42 states and the District of Columbia that had fewer births in 2019 than 2018 — only eight states saw a birth increase.

"Our natural increase has been declining and we expect that to continue into the future," said state demographer Eric Guthrie. "We really need to look to migration for future population increases."

Michigan was the only state to see a population decline between 2000 and 2010, Guthrie said.

Higher levels of immigration to Michigan in 2016 and 2017 helped to offset domestic out-migration, said demographer Kurt Metzger.

"Immigration is critical nationally and even more so in Michigan because of the other factors working against us. ... Migration is the story," Metzger said.

Michigan's growth rate lags behind the national average. The U.S. population increased by 0.5% to 328.2 million in 2019. States with the highest growth rates this year were Idaho and Nevada. Ten states saw an annual population decline.

Loading...

These are the last state population estimates before the decennial census begins in 2020. The official census requires every resident to be counted to, among other things, apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. It is also used to determine how federal dollars are allocated to states, local governments, nonprofits, businesses and households. In fiscal year 2017, more than 300 federal spending programs relied on decennial census data to distribute $1.5 trillion in funding, according to the latest research by George Washington University professor Andrew Reamer.

Michigan currently holds 14 of 435 seats in the House. Based on current estimates, Michigan is expected to lose one seat, putting the state at 13, according to the University of Michigan's Population Studies Center.

The 2020 Census begins as early as next month in remote Toksook Bay, Alaska. In Michigan, most households can expect to receive information about the census and how to participate by mid-March.

Census officials report they are still looking to fill positions, including about 4,500 jobs in metro Detroit. Go to www.2020Census.gov/jobs to apply

Kristi Tanner is the computer-assisted reporting coordinator, working with the Free Press Investigations Team. Contact her at 313-222-8877 or ktanner@freepress.com.