The chief Brexit negotiator for the European Union has declared that 80% of a deal with the UK has been agreed, in a change of narrative that suggests a full agreement can be sealed before October’s deadline.



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Speaking in New York on Tuesday, Michel Barnier said: “After 12 months of negotiations we have agreed on 80% of the negotiations.” He added that he was determined to negotiate a deal on the remaining 20%.

The declaration that four-fifths of the deal is done is a significant change of tone from the EU after months of protests that it could not negotiate because the UK had not put its own proposals on the table.

Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Barnier said he looked forward to a “constructive discussion” with the UK after the white paper on Brexit is published on Thursday. But he warned: “We need clarity for these negotiations to move forward for the time is very short.”

Barnier said he had never been shown how Brexit provided added value when the world faced challenges from terrorism and climate change to migration, poverty and financial instability.

It will be crystal clear at the end of this negotiation that the best situation … will be to remain a member Michel Barnier

“It will be clear, crystal clear at the end of this negotiation that the best situation, the best relationship with the EU, will be to remain a member,” he said.

Barnier added: “No deal is the worst solution for everybody. It would be a huge economic problem for the UK and also for the EU. I’m not working for that deal, I’m working for a deal.”

Outlining the scale of the task ahead to enable an orderly 21-month transition following the UK’s departure from the EU next March, he said: “We are not so far from the final agreement, 20%. I don’t want to put myself in the situation where we fail. But to be clear, we are prepared on the European side [for] many options, including the no deal.”

Barnier’s comments come after days of upheaval in the UK, since Theresa May’s attempt to bind her cabinet to an agreed approach to the Brexit negotiations triggered the resignations of the Brexit secretary, David Davis, and foreign secretary, Boris Johnson.

Johnson used his resignation letter on Monday to claim that the UK was “headed for the status of a colony” under May’s soft Brexit plans, which would keep closer ties to the European Union than hardline Conservatives want.

Asked if May’s weakened position put negotiations at risk, Barnier said: “To be sincere, I don’t want to make any comment on domestic and national policy in the UK. I have met many people with different views. I have listened to everyone and will continue to do so. But as EU negotiator I will negotiate only with the British government … so our next negotiations will be next Monday with the British delegation appointed by Mrs May.”

He said the detailed UK proposals would be assessed in the light of the EU’s clear position on the indivisible four freedoms of movement of people, goods, services and capital. The EU is ready to start negotiating on free trade and customs agreements with the UK, he said.

“If it is well understood, these principles, which are the foundation of our union, we would start a constructive discussion, with the UK on two aspects of the negotiation, a free trade agreement and a customs arrangement. The solution will, however, have to be workable and realistic, it should not lead to red tape and cost for citizens and businesses.”

A draft withdrawal agreement was signed in March, with several areas signed off including the Brexit bill; most but not all issues relating to EU citizens; and some issues relating to Ireland, including the common travel area.

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The UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019. There is an October deadline to reach a withdrawal agreement and the latest round of negotiations is due to take place next week – with the new Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, replacing Davis at the table.

May is facing the risk of a confidence vote from rebellious Conservative MPs and the mood of political chaos will be further complicated by the arrival of Donald Trump in the UK on Thursday for a visit which will be punctuated by protests.

Leaving the White House on Tuesday for his flight to Europe, Trump described Johnson as “a good friend” and said the UK was “in somewhat turmoil”.

Trump is almost entirely avoiding London during his trip, which will include a Windsor Castle meeting with the Queen and talks with May at the Chequers retreat where, last week, she failed to unite her cabinet around her Brexit plan.

During a trip to Scotland in 2016, Trump hailed the Brexit vote as a “great thing” and said the people of the UK had “taken back their country”.