Election 2016: Whose votes will really decide the winner?

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In Australia, all votes are created equal but some are worth more than others.

This is the population of Australia.

Just because you live here doesn't give you the right to vote.

The two biggest reasons for non-eligibility are age (you must be older than 18) and non-citizenship.

So already we lose a large number of people.

For whatever reason there are almost 1 million people who are eligible to vote, but somehow aren't registered.

Let's remove them too.

For a change in government to occur, marginal seats must swing to the Opposition. The Australian Electoral Commission defines a marginal seat as having been won by less than 6 per cent.

Let's remove voters who are in safe seats. Sadly they don't have much say.

The extent to which marginal seats matter depends on the likely swing at an election. Maybe you think the swing will be smaller than 6 per cent, so take your pick.

Estimating the number of voters who aren't rusted on to a party is tricky. One of the best sources we have is the Australian Election Study, an exit poll conducted after each federal election.

The report released after the 2013 election shows that the number of swinging voters, while on the rise, is still only around 54 per cent.

It's only these swing voters who hold the power to change government. Let's remove anyone who isn't a swing voter.

So the population of Australia might be around 24 million, but only a small proportion really make a difference to the outcome of a federal election.

This is why the parties fight so hard to win votes in key marginal seats — and we want you to help us learn what's happening on the ground.

Have you had a strange or surprising approach from a political party or someone else trying to influence your vote?

by Simon Elvery, Colin Gourlay and Ben Spraggon

Topics: federal-elections, federal-government, federal-parliament, australia