To paraphrase "Rampaging" Roy Slaven and H.G Nelson, who in turn paraphrased Mark Twain on whiskey, sometimes "too much data is barely enough".

This week in finance: GDP growth for the June quarter (Wednesday) expected to show further deceleration

GDP growth for the June quarter (Wednesday) expected to show further deceleration RBA expected to remain on hold at 1pc (Tuesday)

RBA expected to remain on hold at 1pc (Tuesday) House price index for August likely to be on the rise again (Monday)

House price index for August likely to be on the rise again (Monday) July's retail sales (Tuesday) likely to remain weak, while the trade balance (Thursday) should be a big surplus

This week the economic pointy heads will be swimming in a torrent of numbers, climaxing with Wednesday's release of the June quarter National Accounts.

After poor construction and investment figures last week, any hope of a reasonable GDP growth number is pinned on second quarter company profits (Monday) and Tuesday's net exports and government spending data.

Ahead of this week's GDP partials, the consensus view is economic growth of 0.5 per cent over the quarter, or 1.4 per cent over the year.

That would put economic growth in line with the GFC's trough of 1.4 per cent, recorded in the third quarter of 2009.

That's quite a step down from the already insipid 1.8 per cent in the previous quarter, and well below the RBA's forecast.

However, it might also be optimistic.

ANZ, not renowned as the gloomiest house on the street, can only come up with 0.2 per cent over the quarter, which would see annual growth dip to 1.1 per cent.

Putting to one side the fourth quarter of 2000, where GDP growth was hammered by the introduction of the GST, 1.1 per cent would be the lowest reading since the early 1990s.

'Remarkable collapse'

Three months ago, ANZ was in step with the "0.5 per cent club".

"The collapse in GDP is remarkable," ANZ's Felicity Emmett said.

"In Q2 last year, GDP growth was running above 3 per cent, business conditions were only just off their all-time highs, and growth in consumer spending was accelerating.

"Consumer spending, housing construction and business investment have all slowed more sharply than we anticipated.

"We expect this is due to a combination of disappointing household income growth, falling house prices and the uncertainty created by the global economic backdrop."

In keeping with the cycle of these things, the RBA board meets the day before the GDP number drops. The betting is rates will be on hold at 1 per cent.

CoreLogic publishes the August house price index on Monday, with stronger auction results in Sydney and Melbourne forecast to see prices rise about 1 per cent nationally.

July retail sales (Tuesday) will be keenly watched.

They are tipped to have increased, but at slower pace than June, as the full impact of the tax and two rate cuts will not have flowed through to consumers' pockets by then.

The July trade balance should be another booming surplus, up about $8 billion.

It's been like that on the trade front for a while, so much so that the net trade surplus of about $20 billion in the June quarter is likely to have more than offset the net income deficit and delivered the first quarterly current account surplus since 1975.

But why so miserable?

On some estimates — including those of the Bank of England — global interest rates have never been lower.

The BoE charted the rise and fall of rates over 5,000 years, so that's a fair period of observation.

Both long and short rates have sunk lower since the chart below was composed last year.

The only time when rates were nearly so low was during the global depression of the 1930s, a period of chronic economic misery.

Interest rates are now at their lowest level in 5000 years according to the Bank of England ( Supplied: Bank of England )

Misery Index

So how does the current historic era of low rates line up in terms of economic misery?

On an objective economic measure, there's an argument that things aren't so gloomy.

In the 1970s, US economist Arthur Okun developed a Misery Index to study the twin evils of high inflation and high unemployment that were ravaging developed economies at the time.

At its simplest, the misery index is the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. The higher the index, the worse the economic fundamentals and therefore the public welfare.

Currently the Misery Index across the 10 biggest economies (G10) is in the basement, driven down by very low levels of both inflation and unemployment.

Levels of economic misery across the G10 economies have fallen sharply since the GFC as unemployment, inflation and interest rates have tumbled. ( Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research )

Bank of America Merrill Lynch currency strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis says looking at the misery index, current fundamentals do not justify the aggressive rate cuts from the G10 central banks.

His preferred measure of economic misery is a bit more advanced than the old "unemployment + inflation" method, factoring in existing interest rate settings, as well as economic growth compared to long-term trends.

"Although global growth has weakened and inflation is below the target in most G10 economies, monetary policies are already loose, unemployment at a historically low level and wages are increasing in most cases," Dr Vamvakidis said.

The Fed has been at the forefront of the latest round of cuts despite US GDP growth being relatively solid, and certainly in line with expectations, unemployment holding at 50-year lows and inflation being around the target level, or even above it on some measures.

"Global risks have increased, but monetary policy may not be the best way to address them in some cases," Dr Vamvakidis argued.

Dr Vamvakidis' view is that the risks that monetary policy is trying to address are primarily the result of policy failures in other areas, which more central bank easing is unlikely to fix.

"Such risks include trade tensions between the US and a number of other countries, the limitations of Germany's export-driven growth model and the failure of the country to implement fiscal stimulus, political risks and unsustainable fiscal policies in Italy, and risks of a no-deal Brexit.

"Central bank easing may actually allow such policy mistakes to continue or even worsen," he warned.

If there is one of G10 central bank which has room to cut, and still have an impact, it may be the RBA."

On the BoAML Misery Index, only the Canadian (CAD) currency is in a more miserable state than Australia (AUD).

"The index is low for all G10, no matter what," Dr Vamvakidis said.

"It is slightly higher for AUD because of the relatively higher unemployment, but also because of the policy rate being 1 per cent instead of 0 per cent, or even negative in other countries."

Canada and Australia have the highest readings in the G10 Misery Index due to comparatively high unemployment and interest rates. ( Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research )

Markets

Perhaps having exhausted themselves after running in an out of the exits in response to the oscillating nature of White House communications on trade, Wall Street traders took a breather on Friday and went nowhere.

The ASX200 having gained 1.5 per cent — or $28 billion in the interests of balancing the scary "$X billion loss" headlines of recent times — also looks set to take a breather to start the week.

Markets on Friday's close: ASX SPI 200 futures -0.1pc at 6,566; ASX 200 (Friday's close) +1.5pc at 6,604

ASX SPI 200 futures -0.1pc at 6,566; ASX 200 (Friday's close) +1.5pc at 6,604 AUD: 67.4 US cents; 61.3 euro cents; 55.4 British pence; 71.6 Japanese yen; $NZ1.08

AUD: 67.4 US cents; 61.3 euro cents; 55.4 British pence; 71.6 Japanese yen; $NZ1.08 US: Dow Jones +0.2pc at 26,403; S&P500 +0.1pc at 2,926; NASDAQ -0.1pc at 7,962

US: Dow Jones +0.2pc at 26,403; S&P500 +0.1pc at 2,926; NASDAQ -0.1pc at 7,962 Europe: FTSE +0.3pc at 7,207; DAX +0.8pc at 11,939; EuroStoxx50 +0.5pc at 3,427

Europe: FTSE +0.3pc at 7,207; DAX +0.8pc at 11,939; EuroStoxx50 +0.5pc at 3,427 Commodities: Brent oil -1.1pc at $US60.43/barrel; Gold -0.5pc at $US1,520/ounce; Iron ore $US86.00/tonne

Friday's rally helped drag the ASX into the black over the week, but it still dropped 3 per cent over a month dominated by the release of corporate Australia's full-year results and rising unease of global prospects.

It's difficult to apportion blame, but neither theme was overly positive.

Soft reporting season

Depending on your taste, the reporting season was either blancmange-like (a bit soft) or a curate's egg (partly good, partly bad).

Morgan Stanley strategist Chris Nichol said the results season coughed up one of the weaker growth outcomes for some time, and looking ahead the prospects were "more downdraft than uplift for 2020".

Morgan Stanley's key observations included:

Earnings "beats-to-misses" were below expectations

Earnings "beats-to-misses" were below expectations Revenue growth was below expectations with 10 per cent of companies exceeding forecasts and 18 per cent falling short

Revenue growth was below expectations with 10 per cent of companies exceeding forecasts and 18 per cent falling short Healthcare, industrials, telecoms and info tech on average performed strongly in terms of market reaction, while miners and consumer staples disappointed the most

Healthcare, industrials, telecoms and info tech on average performed strongly in terms of market reaction, while miners and consumer staples disappointed the most Of companies that provided earnings guidance, only 18 per cent provided upgrades for next year compared to 39 per cent guiding down

Of companies that provided earnings guidance, only 18 per cent provided upgrades for next year compared to 39 per cent guiding down Dividends were broadly in line with estimates, although miners disappointed and financials gave more positive surprises

"The current stimulus has certainly stabilized some of the downside from a domestic perspective. But to get a credible recovery in motion we continue to call for additional stimulus — and not just rate cuts," Mr Nichol said.

Iron ore rout

Iron ore has just suffered its worst month on record with prices dropping about 30 per cent.

There are a number of factors:

Increasing supply as Brazil re-enters the market

Increasing supply as Brazil re-enters the market Falling profitability in Chinese steel mills

Falling profitability in Chinese steel mills And concerns about the slowing global economy.

Veteran UBS analyst Glyn Lawcock said that despite the unprecedented volatility this year prices may be stabilising.

"Record Chinese steel output [in the first half of the year] has been principal in keeping prices at elevated levels and fundamentals tight. Is it topping out though? Potentially," Dr Lawcock said.

"Official output in July slowed, while traders' steel inventory has lifted and rebar [construction steel] and hot-rolled coil [manufacturing steel] prices have slipped.

"Trade war headwinds have dampened short-term sentiment, but we maintain that any prospective Chinese stimulus will favour bulks [such as iron ore and coal] over base metals."

The UBS house view is iron ore is oversold with its fourth-quarter price forecast at $US90 per tonne, well above the current spot price of about $US82 to $US85 per tonne.

Going into 2020, Dr Lawcock says, the market will come back into balance and the price will slide down to the UBS long-term target of $US55 a tonne.

That's a fair trek down, but still offering a pretty hefty margin for the miners on production costs of around $US15 a tonne.

Australia

Date Event Forecast/comment Monday 2/9/2019 House prices Aug: House prices appear to have stopped falling, gains in Sydney & Melbourne may see national index up 1 pc over the month Profits/inventories Q2: Strong commodity prices likely to support company profit adding to GDP, while inventories may be a small negative Manufacturing surveys Aug: Both AiG and CBA PMIs expected to show activity is still expanding Tuesday 3/9/2019 RBA decision Likely to be hold at 1pc, October or November look more likely for a cut according to the market Public demand Q2: Government spending likely to prop up Q2 GDP growth Net exports Q2: Also likely to be a positive for Q2 GDP, adding around 0.4 percentage points Current account Q2: Deficit narrowing every quarter; could it be the first CA surplus since 1975? Retail sales Jul: Should be stronger, but may be too early for tax & rate cuts to have much impact Wednesday 4/9/2019 GDP Q2: GDP growth tipped to come in at 0.5pc over the quarter for a weak 1.4pc YoY result Thursday 5/9/2-10 Trade balance Jul: Another big surplus around $8b, thanks to strong iron ore prices and lower imports Friday 6/9/2019 Construction survey Aug: Another very weak PCI result with activity contracting more rapidly. Job responses will be watched closely

Overseas