The results suggest Gov. Bruce Rauner, considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the nation, is in serious jeopardy of being denied a second term in November. | Alex Wong/Getty Images Illinois GOP governor trails Democrats by double-digits in new poll

CHICAGO — With roughly three weeks until the Illinois primary election and more than $100 million of their personal funds already invested, billionaire Democrat J.B. Pritzker and multi-millionaire Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner hold double-digit leads against their respective primary challengers, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.

But the results suggest Rauner, considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the nation, is in serious jeopardy of being denied a second term in November. Both Pritzker and Democrat state Sen. Daniel Biss are ahead of the governor by double-digits in general election match-ups tested by the Carbondale-based institute.


In the Democratic primary, Pritzker leads Biss by 10 points — 31 percent to 21 percent — with 17 percent of the respondents choosing Chris Kennedy.



General election match-ups show Pritzker would beat Rauner by 15 points and Biss would beat Rauner by 14. The poll didn’t ask about a prospective Kennedy-Rauner match-up.

Pritzker and Rauner have collectively contributed more than $100 million to their own campaigns, with Pritzker spending some $50 million the primary alone. That massive personal investment in the race caused Democratic opponents on Wednesday to question why he didn’t have a larger lead in the primary, despite far outpacing his opponents in spending

“Why isn’t he up by more? Well, why isn’t he down by more if this much was spent against him?” Charlie Leonard, one of the supervisors of the poll said of attacks on Pritzker. “Because everyone is hammering him if they have enough money to do so.”

The poll surveyed 1,001 registered voters statewide from Feb.19-25, with a margin of error at plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Leonard said the institute dropped a Kennedy-Rauner general election match-up question because “as we were trying to put this together, we didn’t see any polls that had him in second [place].”

Reflecting a larger takeaway of those polled, Leonard theorized that Kennedy also would have been ahead of Rauner in a hypothetical matchup. "If the election were held today, I’d rather be ‘not-Rauner," he said.





Illinois Playbook newsletter Our must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln. Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Kennedy’s camp pointed to the 25 percent of those surveyed who were undecided in the March 20 Democratic primary, arguing that Pritzker — who’s under fire for comments caught on FBI wiretape in a conversation with former Gov. Rod Blagojevich — brings too much baggage to the campaign.



“J.B. Pritzker has spent $56 million on his campaign and that's left him with plummeting poll numbers and a high number of undecided voters who are looking for another option,” campaign spokeswoman Rebecca Evans said. “The recent poll numbers and our campaign's momentum are setting off panic in the Pritzker campaign, as evidenced by their decision to go negative on Chris Kennedy in TV ads.”



Rauner is up by 20 points against Republican primary opponent Jeanne Ives, a state representative who entered the race late last year and has little name recognition. A surge in donations from conservative contributors, including businessman Dick Uihlein has helped Ives fund a robust statewide TV ad campaign.



“At this stage of the game she has more name recognition than you might think,” Leonard said.



Asked about results showing Rauner’s vulnerability in the fall, campaign spokesman Will Allison made clear that the governor would follow his now-familiar playbook: link the Democratic nominee to state Democratic Party Chair Michael Madigan. Over the last three years, Rauner has spent millions of dollars driving up Madigan’s negatives in advertising.



“No matter who the Democrats nominate, they'll continue to follow Mike Madigan's lead of more corruption and higher taxes,” Allison said in an email. “The contrast is clear because Bruce Rauner has worked to grow good jobs, save taxpayer dollars, and fight the broken status quo.”

Rauner is considered the most vulnerable incumbent governor in America.

