What to look out for as the night unfolds, including results for key bellwether seats, potential upsets, and how to tell who is doing well

10pm

The polls closed with the shock prediction that Theresa May was on course to lose her overall majority in a hung parliament.

2am

The handful of polls that favour Labour’s chances suggest the party could take back Hastings and Rye, the Sussex coastal seat, from the home secretary, Amber Rudd. That would be a major scalp. It would also be a coup for the party to regain middle England marginals such as Telford in Shropshire from the Tories: Corbyn did a well-attended rally here in recent days. Thurrock will also be fascinating as it was a three-way marginal between the Tory incumbent and Ukip and Labour challengers. If Ukip collapses, which way will its former voters swing?



Facebook Twitter Pinterest Nigel Farage campaigning in Thurrock last week. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

2.30am

Corbyn’s Islington North will declare. This will certainly stay Labour but will be worth watching for his victory speech – whether he is sounding triumphant or working out how to pitch defeat.

Election polls tracker 2017: Survation has Labour almost level with Tories Read more

3am-4am

A swath of Scottish seats will be announcing their results, which should give a hint about whether the Conservatives and Labour are seeing any kind of revival against the dominance of the SNP, which won 56 out of 59 seats last time. The Tories would love to remove Angus Robertson, the SNP Westminster leader, in Moray, as well as targeting areas of Edinburgh and South Aberdeen. Labour would like to claw back East Renfrewshire, East Lothian, and Edinburgh North and Leith among others.



Facebook Twitter Pinterest Jeremy Corbyn campaigning in Glasgow. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

3.30am

Watch out for the result of strongly pro-EU Vauxhall, where there has been a concerted Lib Dem effort to unseat the Brexit-supporting Labour MP Kate Hoey, who memorably shared a photoshoot on a flotilla with Nigel Farage. It is a long shot but Tim Farron’s party has been going after torn former remain voters hard. Not long after, expect a battle over Bermondsey and Old Southwark, where Sir Simon Hughes, a former Lib Dem minister, is trying to get his old seat back from Labour’s Neil Coyle.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Kate Hoey and Nigel Farage on the leave flotilla last year. Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images

4am

Curtice will pop up on the BBC to give his considered view on whether his exit poll was on the money and further observations about how the night has unfolded so far. This is likely to be one of the better places to find a considered view on how the parties are doing – although better still will be the Guardian’s unmissable live blog and stories through the night.

4am

The Liberal Democrats are not expected to have the revival they hoped for but they are targeting three remain-voting seats held by Conservatives – Twickenham, where the former business secretary Vince Cable is running, Bath and Cheltenham. They are also after the SNP’s East Dunbartonshire, fought by former minister Jo Swinson. But Lib Dems are at risk in several more seats, including Tom Brake in Carshalton and Wallington, Norman Lamb in North Norfolk and even possibly Farron in Westmorland and Lonsdale.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Vince Cable and Tim Farron campaigning in Twickenham. Photograph: Niklas Halle'N/AFP/Getty Images

4am-5am

This is the most exciting time of the night, as a deluge of results from key swing seats across the country come through. Labour will be hoping to gain seats such as Gower and Vale of Clwyd in Wales, where it has been performing better in recent weeks, Croydon Central and Hendon in London, the Plymouth seats, and Lincoln.

The Conservatives have been throwing a multitude of resources at Nottinghamshire seats such as Gedling, and across the West Midlands in Wolverhampton, Walsall, Dudley and parts of Birmingham, Coventry and Stoke-on-Trent. Watch Cumbria as well to see if the new Tory MP Trudy Harris can repeat her byelection victory over Labour in Copeland, and whether the anti-Corbyn Labour MP John Woodcock can save his seat in Barrow-in-Furness.

4.30am

Frustrated NHS staff might want to tune in at this point to see whether Jeremy Hunt, the Conservative health secretary, has been defeated by an independent candidate backed by some local Labour members, Greens and Liberal Democrats in South West Surrey. It would be a huge – though unlikely – coup.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Dr Louise Irvine of the National Health Action party in Haslemere, part of Jeremy Hunt’s South West Surrey constituency. Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA

5am

The Greens will want to hang on to their only MP, Caroline Lucas, in the leftwing seat of Brighton Pavilion against Labour and potentially even add to their numbers in Bristol West, although this is a long shot.

5am

We should know by now whether May has pulled off her aim of eating into Labour’s northern heartlands. Two ultra marginals, Halifax in Yorkshire and Chester in Cheshire, could easily swing to the Tories at this time but Corbyn will be having an excellent night if he manages to keep them.

5.30am

Paul Nuttall, the Ukip leader, is contesting Boston and Skegness, a heavily leave-voting area that has been represented by a former remain Tory, Matt Warman. His chances are slim though, and there will be questions over his leadership if he fails and Ukip’s vote collapses across the country overall.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A Ukip sign in Boston, Lincolnshire. Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

6am

May’s seat of Maidenhead in Berkshire will declare, and she will give a speech at the count. It should be pretty clear where the result has headed by this point.

6am

A few more interesting marginals will be trickling in at this time. Labour will be very keen to win back Derby North, contested by Corbyn’s ally Chris Williamson. Also look out for Brighton Kemptown, a Tory seat, and Brentford and Isleworth, a Labour marginal, where the Green candidates have stood aside to help boost Corbyn’s party. They are key tests of the effectiveness of the progressive alliance theory.

7am

South Thanet will be extremely interesting because its Tory incumbent candidate, Craig Mackinlay, has been charged with electoral offences relating to the 2015 contest when he saw off Nigel Farage. Will the people of Ramsgate and Broadstairs give him the boot – and Ukip or Labour a chance instead?

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A woman holds a sign at an anti-Ukip demonstration in Ramsgate. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

7am

There could still be dozens of seats left to declare but, by breakfast time, it should be obvious who has won the night or if there will be a hung parliament. Dimbleby will retire for some sleep, while the campaign advisers will be hurriedly organising victory or concession speeches.

If the Conservatives are ahead at this stage, the key question for May will be by how much. When she called the election her party had 330 seats to Labour’s 229, and her working majority was 17. A majority of less than this would represent a serious setback, and a figure of 30 or less would prompt questions about her leadership. She will be satisfied with a majority of more than 50, pleased at 70 and delighted with 80 to 100, a figure implied by ICM and some of the pollsters.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Theresa May at Smithfield Market in the City of London on the final day of campaigning. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Meanwhile, if defeated, expect the Labour leader’s team to compare his share of the vote with Miliband’s 30.4% in 2015 as a sign of a successful campaign and an argument that he should stay on as leader. Anti-Corbyn forces in Labour will begin to argue that any failure to win a majority should result in his resignation.

But if the Conservatives lose their majority, strategists will be quickly trying to work out whether May can govern with the help of the DUP in Northern Ireland. If the arithmetic allows, Corbyn could try to form a minority government supported on a vote-by-vote basis by the SNP, Lib Dems and an array of small parties. In that case, there would be huge pressure on May from within her own party to resign – with Rudd and Boris Johnson two potential successors.

And if Corbyn wins outright, Labour will be jubilant and a lot of people will have to eat a lot of humble pie about his electability. No poll, though, has shown Labour to be ahead.

Midday

Only a handful of seats are not being counted overnight. The last official results will be in from Berwick, Blyth Valley and Wansbeck. It should be clear who the prime minister will be unless there is a complex coalition situation. Whoever has won will head off to the Queen to tell her that she or he is in a position to form a government.