WASHINGTON — In the coming weeks, Iraq’s leaders must make existential decisions. If they cannot form a unity government led by a new prime minister and motivate Sunni moderates and tribes to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, Iraq is likely to disintegrate.

If the central government fails to grant satisfactory concessions to Sunnis and Kurds, the Kurds will push for sovereignty and independence. The Kurds are serious, and the international community must adapt to this emerging reality. While all Iraqi leaders bear responsibility for resolving the current crisis, the greatest share lies with the country’s Shiite politicians, who dominate the central government. Shiite parties must select a candidate for prime minister who can share power, decentralize the government and depoliticize the security forces.

As a prerequisite for working with the central government, Kurdistan seeks the right to export its own oil; integrate Kirkuk and other recently acquired areas; settle past budget issues and keep its own autonomous finances; and maintain control of the region’s Peshmerga security forces, including acquiring weapons to defend itself against ISIS.

The Kurds aren’t confident that Baghdad will accept these demands and have initiated parallel preparations for independence. Massoud Barzani, the Kurdish president, has asked the region’s parliament to establish an electoral commission and set a date to conduct a referendum.