by Scott Kacsmar

We have probably all been guilty at least once of judging a quarterback's performance by his incompletions and not acknowledging that some of the completions may actually have been bad plays too.

A completion that loses yards, a 5-yard gain on third-and-15, or the worst: a 2-yard pass on fourth-and-10. None of these plays are going to benefit the offense, but they help the quarterback's completion percentage and the receiver's reception total. Advanced stats are not quite to the level where we can credit the quarterback who throws a long incompletion on third-and-17 more than we credit the dump pass on third-and-13 -- hey, at least that guy tried to move the chains -- but tracking failed completions is a start.

What are failed completions? They are any complete passes that fail to gain enough yardage to count as a successful play based on these guidelines: 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third/fourth down.

I became very interested in failed completions after first reading about them on Football Outsiders a few years back. I kept track of them for years (without knowing any fancy name) when doing research on third downs, but it was good to see methods that could be used for every down-and-distance situation. The only criticism I think one could throw at this stat is that occasionally a failed completion on third down sets up a significantly shorter field goal or puts a team into field-goal range on what otherwise would have been a punt. It also helps when you can turn an awful third-and-long into a fourth-and-short that's manageable to go for, but overall I think those situations do not represent the vast majority of failed completions.

In preparing our totals for 2013 failed completions, I used only regular-season data. The total number of completions is slightly higher than the official NFL total since Football Outsiders includes backward (lateral) passes as pass plays and completions.

First, here is the rate of failed completions for every team along with where that team finished in pass offense DVOA.

Offense - 2013 Failed Completions Rk Team Completions Failed Pct. Failed Yards PASS DVOA DVOA RK 1 SD 378 70 18.5% 236 52.5% 2 2 DET 371 70 18.9% 268 9.9% 16 3 DEN 461 88 19.1% 323 60.3% 1 4 SF 244 50 20.5% 250 31.8% 4 5 MIA 357 77 21.6% 278 4.0% 20 6 PHI 310 67 21.6% 256 30.0% 5 7 NE 380 84 22.1% 327 28.2% 6 8 DAL 376 84 22.3% 288 15.9% 10 9 SEA 269 61 22.7% 266 27.4% 8 10 NYG 325 75 23.1% 336 -17.9% 29 11 GB 366 85 23.2% 338 12.2% 13 12 ARI 365 85 23.3% 339 10.8% 15 13 IND 354 83 23.4% 260 8.3% 17 14 PIT 378 89 23.5% 309 23.5% 9 15 CIN 364 86 23.6% 264 13.5% 12 16 CHI 375 89 23.7% 322 28.0% 7 Rk Team Completions Failed Pct. Failed Yards PASS DVOA DVOA RK 17 NO 447 107 23.9% 357 35.9% 3 18 NYJ 266 65 24.4% 243 -15.9% 28 19 STL 301 74 24.6% 291 0.1% 21 20 WAS 358 90 25.1% 379 -13.9% 26 21 OAK 298 76 25.5% 276 -20.3% 31 22 CAR 292 75 25.7% 288 11.5% 14 23 KC 333 90 27.0% 314 6.7% 18 24 ATL 445 122 27.4% 432 14.7% 11 25 TEN 328 90 27.4% 294 5.6% 19 26 BUF 300 83 27.7% 312 -14.0% 27 27 HOU 372 106 28.5% 404 -19.7% 30 28 MIN 326 93 28.5% 335 -8.3% 23 29 TB 292 84 28.8% 311 -1.7% 22 30 JAC 349 101 28.9% 398 -24.2% 32 31 CLE 380 110 28.9% 417 -9.2% 25 32 BAL 363 112 30.9% 349 -9.0% 24 AVG 347.6 85.0 24.5% 314.4 - -

On average, 24.5 percent of completions in the NFL are not successful plays, averaging 3.7 yards per reception. As you probably expected, many of the elite passing games had the lowest rates of failed completions while the worst passing games had some of the highest. The correlation coefficient between failed completion rate and pass DVOA was -0.70, because DVOA is built on the concept of successful plays. Now some plays are bigger failures than others, which is where the fractional points in the DVOA "success point" system come into play, but it was no surprise to see strong correlation.

(DVOA, for example, does give credit for partial success for plays such as 13-yard completions on third-and-15.)

The Falcons led the league with 432 yards off of failed completions. That includes a minus-8-yard completion by defensive back Shann Schillinger on a blocked punt against the Jets. The completion actually saved a little bit of field position compared to a normal block, but this was not a typical play by any means.

No team had a larger differential in where they ranked in these two stats than the Giants, who were 10th at failed completion rate, but only 29th in DVOA. Of course, Eli Manning led the league in a special kind of failed completion: 27 passes completed to a player wearing the other team's jersey.

Next is a look at the 30 quarterbacks with at least 150 completions and their rate of failed completions. I also included the quarterback's DYAR and DVOA on these failed completions.

Quarterbacks: 2013 Failed Completions (Min. 150 Completions) Rk Quarterback Completions Failed Pct. DYAR Rk DVOA Rk 1 17-P.Rivers 378 70 18.5% -197 19 -59.6% 16 2 18-P.Manning 450 84 18.7% -222 23 -58.3% 11 3 9-M.Stafford 371 70 18.9% -201 21 -64.5% 19 4 12-J.McCown 150 29 19.3% -114 3 -85.9% 30 5 7-C.Kaepernick 243 50 20.6% -46 1 -31.5% 1 6 17-R.Tannehill 355 76 21.4% -195 17 -61.4% 18 7 12-T.Brady 380 84 22.1% -196 18 -55.0% 6 8 9-T.Romo 343 77 22.4% -188 16 -54.2% 5 9 10-E.Manning 317 72 22.7% -163 11 -65.6% 21 10 12-A.Rodgers 193 44 22.8% -54 2 -38.3% 2 11 9-N.Foles 203 47 23.2% -158 10 -71.9% 25 12 3-R.Wilson 259 60 23.2% -131 4 -57.4% 8 13 10-R.Griffin 276 64 23.2% -153 8 -58.6% 13 14 3-C.Palmer 364 85 23.4% -199 20 -55.2% 7 15 7-B.Roethlisberger 376 89 23.7% -285 28 -68.4% 24 Rk Quarterback Completions Failed Pct. DYAR Rk DVOA Rk 16 14-A.Dalton 363 86 23.7% -326 29 -76.4% 29 17 12-A.Luck 347 83 23.9% -254 24 -64.7% 20 18 9-D.Brees 447 107 23.9% -271 27 -57.6% 10 19 7-G.Smith 247 60 24.3% -183 15 -73.7% 26 20 1-C.Newton 292 75 25.7% -182 14 -58.4% 12 21 11-A.Smith 308 80 26.0% -264 25 -75.1% 27 22 6-J.Cutler 225 60 26.7% -136 6 -58.9% 14 23 3-E.Manuel 180 49 27.2% -134 5 -66.7% 22 24 2-M.Ryan 439 120 27.3% -267 26 -52.6% 3 25 4-R.Fitzpatrick 217 61 28.1% -221 22 -75.1% 28 26 7-C.Henne 305 87 28.5% -179 12 -53.7% 4 27 8-M.Schaub 219 63 28.8% -158 9 -59.8% 17 28 8-M.Glennon 248 74 29.8% -181 13 -59.1% 15 29 17-J.Campbell 180 54 30.0% -137 7 -57.5% 9 30 5-J.Flacco 362 111 30.7% -336 30 -67.4% 23

In dark corners of the internet, there rages an irrational Joe Flacco vs. Matt Ryan debate. In 2013, they led the league in failed completions with Flacco having the worst rate of anyone. Jason Campbell was the only other quarterback to hit 30 percent for failed completions, living up to his reputation of checking down when he shouldn't.

Most of the best quarterbacks in the league have a top 10 rate, but Drew Brees (18th) is one big exception. Given the Saints had 171 receptions by running backs, maybe that's not a surprise.

Josh McCown's completely unexpected season comes with another oddity. He was one of only four quarterbacks to be under 20 percent for failed completions, yet he had the worst DVOA (-85.9%) of anyone on those plays. Expecting to see McCown with a high rate of his failed completions coming on third/fourth down, I was surprised to see he still ranked 11th:

Percentage of Failed Completions on 3rd/4th Down Rk Quarterback Failed 3D Rate Rk Quarterback Failed 3D Rate 1 9-T.Romo 77 17 22.1% 16 7-B.Roethlisberger 89 31 34.8% 2 18-P.Manning 84 19 22.6% 17 8-M.Schaub 63 22 34.9% 3 4-R.Fitzpatrick 61 16 26.2% 18 3-C.Palmer 85 31 36.5% 4 2-M.Ryan 120 32 26.7% 19 3-R.Wilson 60 22 36.7% 5 5-J.Flacco 111 32 28.8% 20 12-T.Brady 84 31 36.9% 6 12-A.Luck 83 24 28.9% 21 17-J.Campbell 54 20 37.0% 7 1-C.Newton 75 22 29.3% 22 10-R.Griffin 64 24 37.5% 8 12-A.Rodgers 44 13 29.5% 23 11-A.Smith 80 30 37.5% 9 9-N.Foles 47 14 29.8% 24 7-G.Smith 60 23 38.3% 10 9-D.Brees 107 32 29.9% 25 8-M.Glennon 74 29 39.2% 11 12-J.McCown 29 9 31.0% 26 9-M.Stafford 70 29 41.4% 12 14-A.Dalton 86 27 31.4% 27 7-C.Henne 87 38 43.7% 13 17-P.Rivers 70 23 32.9% 28 17-R.Tannehill 76 34 44.7% 14 6-J.Cutler 60 20 33.3% 29 10-E.Manning 72 34 47.2% 15 3-E.Manuel 49 17 34.7% 30 7-C.Kaepernick 50 25 50.0%

Someone has to be on the receiving end of these plays. Finally, I looked at the failed completions for everyone with at least 30 receptions. The following table excludes running backs since they dominate these lists with all the short passes they catch. For those curious, Ben Tate had a league-high 62.9 failed completion rate.

Most Failed Completions Lowest Failed Completion Rate (WR/TE) Highest Failed Completion Rate (WR/TE) Receiver Team Failed Receiver Team Rec. Failed Pct. Receiver Team Rec. Failed Pct. 11-J.Edelman NE 28 81-C.Johnson DET 84 3 3.6% 18-A.Sanders JAC 51 23 45.1% 88-P.Garcon WAS 27 12-M.Colston NO 75 6 8.0% 84-C.Patterson MIN 45 17 37.8% 13-K.Wright TEN 25 16-L.Moore NO 37 3 8.1% 89-J.Carlson MIN 32 11 34.4% 84-A.Brown PIT 24 89-J.Cotchery PIT 46 4 8.7% 15-D.Bess CLE 42 14 33.3% 18-A.Sanders JAC 23 15-M.Floyd ARI 65 6 9.2% 80-E.Bennett CHI 32 10 31.3% 84-J.Cameron CLE 20 85-K.Thompkins NE 32 3 9.4% 11-T.Austin STL 40 12 30.0% 80-A.Johnson HOU 19 10-D.Hopkins HOU 52 5 9.6% 82-K.Rudolph MIN 30 9 30.0% 11-L.Fitzgerald ARI 18 88-D.Bryant DAL 93 9 9.7% 18-G.Little CLE 41 12 29.3% 13-T.Hilton IND 18 82-M.Jones CIN 51 5 9.8% 22-D.McCluster KC 53 15 28.3% 83-M.Bennett CHI 18 13-K.Allen SD 71 7 9.9% 85-T.Eifert CIN 39 11 28.2%

It is fitting that the consensus-best receiver in the game, Calvin Johnson, had the lowest failed completion rate. That helps explain some of the Detroit numbers from above. Elsewhere in the NFC North, the Vikings have three of the seven worst failed completion rates, which probably says more about the unholy trinity of quarterback play (Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman and Matt Cassel) than the receivers.

This is a good spot to highlight the greatest failed completion of the 21st century. In Week 9, the Steelers faced a third-and-30 against the Patriots. Ben Roethlisberger completed a screen pass to Le'Veon Bell and after a missed tackle, Bell gained 29 yards on the final play of the first quarter. Technically, that's a failed completion. The Steelers did go for it on fourth-and-1 at the New England 42 and Bell converted on the ground, which never would have happened without the big gain on the screen.

That play is the longest completion since 1999 that came on third or fourth down but failed to convert for a first down.

In closing, let's look at how defenses fared at forcing failed completions. An alarming stat from 2013 would be the Carolina Panthers allowing a 66.6 completion rate. We know their overall defense was great, but the secondary was suspect. However, no defense was better at forcing failed completions than the Panthers: