POLITICO Playbook: Democrats’ impeachment pickle Presented by Amazon

Many Congressional Democrats are left hoping they don’t impeach President Donald Trump and he loses reelection on his own. | Tom Brenner/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY

THIS POLITICAL PICKLE has come up in conversations with several Democratic sources over the last few days: If House Democrats impeach President DONALD TRUMP and he loses, they fear they could get blamed for a political hit job. If they don’t impeach him and he wins, they fear being blamed by the Democratic base for not doing enough. Best-case scenario: Dems are left hoping they don’t impeach him and Trump loses on his own.

TRUMP IN NEW MEXICO … GABBY ORR in Rio Rancho, N.M.: “‘You’re doing better than any state in the United States,’ he said. ‘How do I lose New Mexico? Explain that one. We’re here for a number of reasons, but we’re here because we really think we’re going to turn this state.’” POLITICO … 2016 election results

-- NYT’S PETER BAKER, also in Rio Rancho: “He singled out a longtime supporter, Steve Cortes, a CNN commentator, who was present. ‘He happens to be Hispanic, but I’ve never quite figured it out because he looks more like a WASP than I do,’ Mr. Trump said.

“Shouting across the arena to Mr. Cortes, the president said: ‘Nobody loves the Hispanics more. Who do you like more, the country or the Hispanics?’ Mr. Cortes cupped his hands and shouted a reply that was hard to hear.

“‘He says the country,’ Mr. Trump interpreted for him. ‘I don’t know, I may have to go for the Hispanics, to be honest with you. We got a lot of Hispanics. We love our Hispanics. Get out and vote.’” NYT

TEHRAN SAYS NO TURTLE BAY TALKS … “Iran’s supreme leader: No talks with the U.S. at any level,” by AP’s Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran: “Iran’s supreme leader announced on Tuesday that ‘there will be no talks with the U.S. at any level’ — remarks apparently meant to end all speculation about a possible U.S.-Iran meeting between the two countries’ presidents at the U.N. later this month.

“Iranian state TV quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as saying this is the position of the entire leadership of the country and that ‘all officials in the Islamic Republic unanimously believe’ this. ‘There will be no talks with the U.S. at any level,’ he said. Khamenei said the U.S. wants to prove its ‘maximum pressure policy’ against Iran is successful.

“‘In return, we have to prove that the policy is not worth a penny for the Iranian nation,’ Khamenei said. ‘That’s why all Iranian officials, from the president and the foreign minister to all others have announced that we do not negotiate (with the U.S.) either bilaterally or multilaterally.’” AP

-- WAPO’S ANNE GEARAN: “Trump’s dual instincts on Iran: Big threats and an eagerness to deal”: “Trump’s dual approach on Iran is premised on the idea that by walking out of the 2015 international nuclear deal with Tehran and replacing the pact’s concessions with new sanctions, Trump can both please the hawks and force Iran to the bargaining table for a deal that would carry the Trump brand.

“Trump would be the first U.S. president to meet an Iranian president since the 1970s, an idea that appeals to him, said advisers who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the president’s views. He has made an offer that has no precedent since the Islamic republic was born out of a bitterly anti-American revolution in 1979, saying repeatedly that he would sit down with ‘no conditions.’” WaPo

THE IRONY: Iranian leaders have now adopted the United States’ position, which is that Iran will not meet with Trump without preconditions.

A REMINDER … ISRAEL IS VOTING TODAY. Benjamin Netanyahu is vying for an unprecedented fifth term as prime minister. Israel is seven hours ahead of the U.S., so we should know more by the early afternoon. Early reports say there has been high turnout at the ballot box. AP preview

Good Tuesday morning.

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NEW … A NEW REPORT by Sens. ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio) and TOM CARPER (D-Del.), off embargo this morning, says the last three government shutdowns cost taxpayers nearly $4 billion. The report

SPOTTED: Todd Ricketts, the Cubs co-owner and current RNC finance chairman, at Cafe Milano on Monday evening celebrating his 50th birthday -- the big day is actually Sept. 23. ATTENDING THE FETE: His brothers, Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts and Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts; attorney and RNC National Committeeman Richard Porter; Illinois political fundraiser Barrett Kedzior Zolnierowicz; Paul Ryan …

… Kellyanne Conway; and Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and -- even -- Dick Durbin, the Illinois Democrat, who is also a Cubs fan. Fox News’ Bret Baier gave a toast. The big “awww” moment was watching Todd Ricketts and his wife, Sylvie, cut a rug. (hat tip: Shia Kapos)

KNOWING TRUMP -- WAPO’S ASHLEY PARKER: “From ‘my generals’ to ‘my Kevin,’ Trump’s preferred possessive can be a sign of affection or control”

HOUSE DEMOCRATS HAND TRUMP A WIN … WAPO: “Farm bailout money likely to be included in stopgap spending bill amid pressure from moderate House Democrats,” by Erica Werner and Jeff Stein: “House Democrats, amid a backlash from moderates, are backing away from a plan to block President Trump from extending new farm bailout funds, people briefed on the discussions said.

“The shift comes days after Democrats had sought to prevent the White House from expanding a major component of their farm bailout plan, which the White House has estimated could cost close to $30 billion. Trump had authorized the bailout funds in response to an outcry from farmers who claimed they were caught in the middle of his trade war with China. Democrats are likely to include legislation that would expedite payment of these funds as part of a must-pass spending bill as soon as this week.” WaPo

IMPORTANT … SARAH FERRIS: “House Democrats have largely agreed to punt an ugly border wall fight with Donald Trump until November, likely averting a shutdown this month — as long as the president backs the plan.

“The House is expected to pass a stopgap funding bill this week that maintains the status quo for Trump’s border policies, marking a temporary concession by progressives still fuming at recent hard-line moves on immigration, according to multiple lawmakers and senior aides.

“Senate Republicans, too, say they’re willing to back the short-term bill — with Trump’s greenlight. That would set up a final showdown around Thanksgiving, which will be Trump’s last chance to deliver on his wall promise before peak campaign season.” POLITICO

PLAY THIS OUT A LITTLE BIT: Congress could easily punt a November fight into mid-December to ensure a Thanksgiving break. It’s really early, but senior aides we talk to are already getting worried about a December shutdown.

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THE SQUAD … BOSTON GLOBE: “Ayanna Pressley to submit resolution calling for an impeachment inquiry of Brett Kavanaugh,” by Danny McDonald:“‘I believe Christine Blasey Ford,’ said Pressley in a Monday statement. ‘I believe Deborah Ramirez. It is our responsibility to collectively affirm the dignity and humanity of survivors.’

“She continued, ‘Sexual predators do not deserve a seat on the nation’s highest court and Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation process set a dangerous precedent. We must demand justice for survivors and hold Kavanaugh accountable for his actions.’” Boston Globe

IMMIGRATION FILES -- “Pentagon puts brakes on 3 border barrier projects because of cost,” by Matthew Choi: “The Defense Department is no longer moving forward with three border barrier projects in California and Arizona, according to a court filing Monday.

“The move is reversal of an earlier Pentagon authorization for about 20 miles of fencing, lighting and other border infrastructure that would have used $2.5 billion in funds redirected from a counter-drug fund. That authorization, announced Aug. 27, was based on what was then determined to be ‘lower-than-expected contract costs.’

“But the Defense Department revealed in the Monday filing that the department would not be able to cover the costs of the project.” POLITICO

HAPPENING TODAY -- Trump’s former campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, is testifying before the House Judiciary Committee. AP: “A devoted friend and supporter of the president, Lewandowski isn’t expected to elaborate much beyond what he told [special counsel Robert] Mueller’s investigators last year.

“Mueller himself testified this summer, with no bombshells. Two other witnesses who were subpoenaed alongside Lewandowski — former White House aides Rick Dearborn and Rob Porter — won’t show up at all, on orders from the White House.”

2020 WATCH -- “Warren, in NYC rally, casts campaign as successor to other women-led movements,” by Sally Goldenberg and Alex Thompson in New York: “Sen. Elizabeth Warren, in a speech that drew thousands of supporters to a historic site in Lower Manhattan, on Monday made one of her most explicit appeals to female voters since announcing her bid for the White House.

“In Washington Square Park, an area etched with the history of women-led political action against corruption and big business, she sought to cast her own campaign as the next iteration of that movement. ‘We’re not here today because of famous arches or famous men. In fact, we’re not here because of men at all,’ she proclaimed to loud cheers. ‘We’re here because of some hard-working women.’” POLITICO

-- ELENA SCHNEIDER: “Michael Bennet releases new TV ads in Iowa”: “The Colorado Democrat didn't appear on the primary debate stage last week, after failing to reach the criteria set by the Democratic National Committee. But Bennet is doubling down on his commitment to Iowa with a seven-figure TV and digital ad push over the next several weeks, starting Tuesday.” POLITICO

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TRUMP’S TUESDAY -- The president will leave Albuquerque this morning at 11:50 a.m. Eastern time en route to Mountain View, Calif. He will then drive to Palo Alto and participate in a roundtable with supporters at 3:20 p.m., followed by a joint fundraising committee lunch. Trump will then head to Los Angeles. He will participate in a roundtable with supporters at 10:05 p.m. in Beverly Hills followed by a joint fundraising dinner.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: Teenage Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg stands on a box behind a podium Monday to accept Amnesty International’s highest human rights honor. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

BEN SCHRECKINGER in Turnberry, Scotland: “Trump’s Scottish resort hosted military for longer stays”: “Air Force officers who have earned medals for their tours of combat theaters can pick up some more brass with a short pitstop in Southwest Scotland. As part of its relationship with the Air Force, President Donald Trump’s Turnberry resort occasionally gifts high-ranking officers a version of its ‘Pride Pin,’ a lapel pin featuring the property’s iconic lighthouse — an honor reserved for VIPs — upon their arrival, according a resort staffer familiar with the practice. Rank-and-file members can expect a more basic welcome package in their rooms, featuring goodies like Scottish shortbread.

“A five-day visit to Turnberry and the surrounding region revealed that the regular visits from Air Force crews on layovers from Prestwick Airport have become a major facet of the life of the resort. It also revealed that, rather than being restricted to single-night refueling stops, some visits last multiple nights, expanding the known dimensions of the relationship between the president’s luxury resort and the U.S. military.” POLITICO

BREXIT LATEST … JACK BLANCHARD: “A blockbuster trial for the ages kicks off in Westminster this morning as Britain’s most senior judges consider whether the prime minister broke the law by suspending parliament in the run-up to Brexit Day.” London Playbook

-- METAPHOR ALERT: “Rather than face heckling from a small but boisterous crowd of demonstrators, [British PM] Boris Johnson skipped a planned outdoor press conference with his Luxembourgish counterpart Xavier Bettel on Monday, leaving his host to deliver a grandstanding lecture on how Brexit had been pursued for Tory Party advantage but with no plan for how to deliver it.” More from POLITICO Europe

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TRADE BLINK … REUTERS’ DAVID LAWDER: “Trump says U.S. reaches trade deals with Japan, no word on cars”: “In a letter to the U.S. Congress released by the White House, Trump said that he intends to enter into the agreements on tariff barriers and digital trade ‘in the coming weeks’ and was notifying lawmakers that the tariff deal would be made under a trade law provision allowing the U.S. president to make reciprocal tariff reductions by proclamation.

“‘In addition, I also will be entering into an Executive Agreement with Japan regarding digital trade,’ Trump said in the letter.” Reuters … The letter

REMEMBER THIS GUY? -- “Islamic State Releases Purported Audio Message From Leader Baghdadi,” by WSJ’s Isabel Coles: “Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi ordered his followers to redouble their efforts to further the extremist group’s cause, in an audio message apparently aimed at raising morale after it lost control over its self-proclaimed caliphate in parts of Syria and Iraq earlier this year.

“The purported Baghdadi message follows Islamic State’s April release of what was the first known video footage of him in nearly five years. Severely weakened by the five-year military campaign that forced it underground in March, the extremist group remains a potent threat after reverting to insurgency while seeking to inspire attacks globally.

“‘O soldiers of Allah everywhere, know that what is coming is good…so the efforts must be redoubled and one’s best must be given in all aspects, whether in preaching or media or military or security,’ Baghdadi said in a 30-minute recording, according to monitoring group SITE Intelligence.” WSJ

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STAT DU JOUR … NYT: “The Cost of Running Guantánamo Bay: $13 Million Per Prisoner”

HAPPENING TODAY: The FEC’s daylong “disinformation” session, with representatives of Facebook, Google and Twitter. Nancy Scola previewed the meeting

THE REVIEWS ARE IN -- “Sean Spicer’s ‘Dancing With The Stars’ Debut: Judges Say Salsa Didn’t Quite Sizzle,” by Deadline’s Ted Johnson

MEDIAWATCH -- MICHAEL CALDERONE: “Times’ handling of Kavanaugh story draws widespread criticism”: “The New York Times’ bungled handling of revelations from a book on Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh managed to draw fire from both conservatives who long defended the Supreme Court justice and feminists who fought against his confirmation, both of whom expressed consternation over the paper’s decisions. ...

“According to a Times insider familiar with the matter, [reporter Robin] Pogrebin wrote the offensive tweet, which should have been vetted before it was posted.” POLITICO

-- “Answers to Reader Questions on Our Brett Kavanaugh Essay,” by NYT’s deputy editorial page editor James Dao: “The Opinion section, like other parts of The Times, has a process for writing and editing social media copy. In this case, the process was not followed properly, resulting in a tweet that fell well below our standards. The department is reviewing with everyone involved — including me — what went wrong to determine how we can avoid similar mistakes.” NYT

-- VANITY FAIR’S JOE POMPEO: “Sources say Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly initially pitched their reporting to the news side, but top editors ultimately felt that there wasn't enough juice to warrant a story there -- punting the scoop to the Sunday Review section.” Vanity Fair

-- “John Bolton Already Talking With Book Agents: ‘He Has a Lot to Dish,’” by The Daily Beast’s Max Tani and Asawin Suebsaeng: “According to two people with knowledge of the situation, Bolton has already expressed interest in writing a book on his time in the Trump administration, and has been in contact in recent days with literary agents interested in making that happen.” Daily Beast

-- “Shane Gillis Dropped From ‘S.N.L.’ Cast Amid Criticism of Racist Slurs,” by NYT’s Dave Itzkoff

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

SPOTTED: Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) on an American Airlines flight from Hartford to DCA on Monday.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE: John Horstman is now deputy director of media affairs at the White House. He previously was deputy communications director at the Labor Department. … Anthony Cruz now manages regional communications in the West and heads Hispanic media outreach at the White House. He is a Marco Rubio alum.

-- Cale Brown is now deputy spokesperson at the State Department. He previously was director of strategic communications for the National Security Council.

TRANSITION -- Caryl Stern is now executive director of the Walton Family Foundation. She previously was president and CEO of UNICEF USA.

IN MEMORIAM -- “Paul Ingrassia, Prizewinning Automotive Journalist and Author, Dies at 69,” by WSJ’s James Hagety: “Paul Ingrassia, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist for The Wall Street Journal who was one of the leading chroniclers of the auto industry for more than three decades, died Monday in Naples, Fla., where he had been under treatment for pancreatic cancer. He was 69 years old.

“Mr. Ingrassia, who also served as managing editor of the Thomson Reuters news service and president of Dow Jones Newswires, was the author of three books vividly describing pivotal moments in the car business.” WSJ

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Don Baer, global chairman at Burson Cohn & Wolfe and chairman of the PBS board of directors. A trend he thinks doesn’t get enough attention: “Despite all the justified concerns about faltering media business models and repressive regimes endangering fair coverage, there is more outstanding, thoughtful, well-reported journalism in the world today than I can remember. I hope we give more attention to what a difference it makes for the better and do everything possible to protect and advance it.” Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is 86 … former Supreme Court Justice David Souter is 8-0 … C-SPAN’s Steve Scully … David Litt is 33 ... Richard Wolffe, columnist at the Guardian, is 51 … Bill Briggs ... retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni is 76 ... Narendra Modi, PM of India, is 69 … Marin Cogan … BuzzFeed’s Henry Gomez … Bill Bold ... Anna Taylor ... POLITICO’s Rachel Roubein and Crystal Thomas ... Alberto Mucci ... Sergio Rodriguera … Steve Kerrigan is 48 … Sara Stefanini ... Anthony Coley, EVP, managing director of communications and senior adviser to the president and CEO at the Managed Funds Association ... LA Unified’s Nick Melvoin is 33 … Courtney O’Donnell of Airbnb and Marie Claire … Leah V. Le’Vell, special assistant at the VA … J.T. Foley of Las Vegas Sands Corp government relations is 37 … Béatrice Leydier …

… Matthew Boyse, deputy assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs (h/t daughter Natalie) … Kimberley Fritts, founder and CEO of Cogent Strategies (h/t Jon Haber) ... former Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.) is 66 … Charlie Taffet ... Brian Pate ... Cole Lyle, military aide to Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) ... Courtney Laydon ... Amgen’s Kathryn Phelps … Christine Martin ... Monica Patel ... Elliott Feigenbaum … T.J. Helmstetter ... Morgan Gress Johnson, account director at Brunswick Group ... Meghan Clyne ... John Clark ... Andrea Billups ... Doug Johnson … Matt Everett ... Mackey Dykes … Claire Magee Ferguson … Adam Abrams … Frayda Lieber ... Sandra Abrevaya … Andrew High ... Brian Patrick, communications director for Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and an Eric Cantor alum (h/t Hannah Osantowske) ... Andrew Carter ... Cynthia Ruccia … Isabel Morin … Thomas Bride … Darcy Haber (h/t Teresa Vilmain)

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