John Tory issued a warning to Premier Doug Ford’s government Wednesday not to delay Toronto’s transit plans, even as a new report suggests two major projects the mayor has championed are already in trouble.

The report released Wednesday by city staff seeks council approval to advance work on a host of new lines, but it comes as the city’s ability to chart its own transit future has been cast into doubt by the province’s proposal to take ownership of the TTC subway and alter projects already underway.

Among the report’s recommendations is that council take the Eglinton East LRT off its list of priority projects for federal money. That would leave a crucial component of the Scarborough transit network Tory backed without identified funding.

It also reveals Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government has not yet confirmed it will build stations for the SmartTrack project that formed the central plank of the 2014 mayoral campaign that Tory rode to office.

At a press conference at Bloor-Yonge station, Tory cast the report as evidence the city was moving ahead with its transit priorities. He warned he would have “no choice” but to oppose the province’s plan to upload the subway to Queen’s Park unless Ford’s government could provide detailed assurances the intervention wouldn’t hold up construction.

“As the report makes clear, this is a critical moment to actually push ahead and build transit. We have arrived at that moment only because we have been doing the quiet, time-consuming and to some extent expensive planning and design work to get us to that point,” he said.

“We’re at a crossroads — the crossroads is either we keep driving forward or we hit the brakes and reverse direction again.”

The report recommends council prioritize federal funding for two projects designed to relieve mounting ridership pressure on the TTC’s crowded Line 1: the first phase of the relief line subway, and capacity improvements to Bloor-Yonge station.

The estimated cost of the relief line, which would connect Pape station on Line 2 to Queen and Osgoode stations downtown, has increased to $7.2 billion, from an earlier estimate of about $6.8 billion.

The work at Bloor-Yonge, which would include adding a second platform to serve Line 2, would cost an estimated $1 billion.

A federal fund could cover up to 40 per cent of the costs for both, but the city and province would have to make up the rest.

City staff say the two projects are urgently required because without major modifications the subway is projected to reach capacity by 2026.

“After that point, the continued increase in ridership demand will introduce serious risks to the continued safe, reliable, and effective ability of Line 1 to serve transit customers,” the report states. City staff say that, pending council approval, they could issue an expression of interest for early works on the relief line within months.

However, as part of its upload plan the provincial government has signalled its intention to use “alternate” technology to build the relief line, putting the city’s version of the project in doubt.

The province has not yet detailed what the new technology would be or how quickly its version of the line could be completed, only to say the province can build new transit faster than the city.

At Queen’s Park on Wednesday, Transportation Minister Jeff Yurek said he “will have more to say about our plans for the network very soon,” suggesting there will be transit expansion news in the April 11 budget.

But Yurek said negotiations are still ongoing over how much the city would have to pay toward what could eventually be a $30-billion plan.

“I believe the city can do or say as they wish — that’s their right, but talks … are going quite positive and they’ll continue to go forward. Mayor Tory has been a great partner,” he said.

The city report confirms that the estimated cost for the one-stop Scarborough subway extension has risen to $3.9 billion, exceeding the available funding of $3.5 billion committed by all three levels of government.

Under a compromise plan Tory pitched to council in 2016, the $3.5 billion was supposed to be enough to pay for both the one-stop subway extension and the Eglinton East LRT, which would run from Kennedy station to the University of Toronto Scarborough Campus. The mayor backed the plan after the three-stop subway grew too expensive.

Although the LRT has never been fully funded, in 2016 council voted to prioritize the line, which was estimated at the time to cost about $1.6 billion, for federal funding.

However, the new report recommends removing the LRT from the list of projects slated for federal money. Instead it recommends the city work with Metrolinx, the provincial transit agency, to develop a plan for the line.

That could indefinitely defer the LRT and reduce Tory’s planned Scarborough network to a single-stop subway extension.

The report recommends pursuing the one-stop option and moving ahead with procurement for the project.

The city’s share is now estimated at $1.2 billion, an increase of $327 million to the amount council previously approved. The city would make up the difference using an existing tax levy and development charges, which staff say are generating more money than initially projected.

The report warns of possible delays to the one-stop extension, which is supposed to replace the aging Scarborough RT that’s expected to reach the end of its service life by about 2026.

Staff now believe the earliest the subway could be running is the fourth quarter of 2026, but they acknowledge that timeline could slip by a year, putting the subway opening in late 2027.

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With the TTC currently working to extend the life of the Scarborough RT by 10 years, the new timelines leave no wiggle room between the time the Scarborough RT would likely no longer be functional and the subway opening. That raises the real possibility Scarborough residents will be left taking the bus for an unknown period of time.

Although planning work on the extension has advanced to the point the city could issue requests for qualifications to build the line next month, the report states moving to the procurement phase should be contingent on the province providing written support for the one-stop plan and confirming Ontario’s funding commitment for it by May 15.

That appears unlikely because the provincial government has signalled that as part of the upload it would revert to a three-stop version of the project. It’s not clear when a three-stop version of the plan could be completed, or if it would be done by the time the Scarborough RT will have to be decommissioned.

Councillor Paul Ainslie (Ward 24, Scarborough Guildwood) said he’s frustrated to see the Eglinton East LRT shuffled off to what he calls “jack-and-the-beanstalk” financing — if the funding magically appears, it will be built.

“Every time the subway goes up in price there is less and less money for the Eglinton East LRT,” he said, pointing out that a previously planned seven-stop Scarborough LRT would have been up and running by now had it not been scrapped in favour of the subway.

“If I were someone in Scarborough, I’d be shaking my head in disbelief as the province and the city fail to get their act together to deliver transit,” said Councillor Gord Perks (Ward 4, Parkdale-High Park).

The future of Tory’s SmartTrack plan is also not assured. Last April council agreed to spend about $1.5 billion on up to six stations on GO Transit lines for the plan, and the report states the stations are ready to be procured by Metrolinx.

But while the city has asked the province to confirm its commitment to SmartTrack, “the province has not yet responded,” according to the report.

Tory said Wednesday he was confident the province would ensure his signature transit project gets built.

“I have been assured repeatedly that there is no big objection,” he said.

Asked Wednesday if he would stick with the SmartTrack station program, Yurek said: “I’ve had numerous conversations with Mayor Tory and I’ve committed my support to the SmartTrack.”

The minister suggested that SmartTrack, which was envisioned to operate on GO lines using provincially owned trains and stations, is a part of the upload discussions between Queen’s Park and the city, even though the project was not mentioned in the terms of reference for the talks.

Yurek’s spokesperson Mike Winterburn later clarified that “the SmartTrack proposal continues to inform” talks between the two governments on transit.

Winterburn rejected the idea that Ford’s government was withholding its approval of SmartTrack in order to induce Tory not to oppose its upload plan.

“In fact, discussions with the city are continuing in good faith,” he said.

Councillor Josh Matlow (Ward 12, Toronto-St. Paul’s) said the uncertainty surrounding Tory’s and Ford’s competing transit visions is the result of leaders putting politics ahead of sound planning.

“If we elect a mayor and a premier that run on bumper sticker slogans rather than realistic transit plans it’s not surprising that we’re left with very little more than a bumper sticker,” he said.

With files from Jennifer Pagliaro, David Rider, Robert Benzie, and Francine Kopun.

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