Poll: McMaster, Noble leading 2018 races for S.C. governor

Republican Gov. Henry McMaster and Democratic Phil Noble are leading the races for South Carolina governor, according to the first poll results released in 2018.

The results of a poll conducted by the Georgia-based Trafalgar Group released this week showed nearly 40 percent of Republican voters are backing McMaster for his party's gubernatorial nomination. Among the other GOP candidates, Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant of Anderson was a distant second with 11 percent, followed by Charleston attorney Catherine Templeton with nearly 8 percent and former Lt. Gov. Yancey McGill with 3 percent.

Almost 28 percent of GOP voters in the survey were undecided and 10 percent expressed support for "someone else."

The poll showed 25 percent of Democratic voters supported Charleston business and technology consultant Phil Noble in the governor's race, while 20 percent backed state Rep. James Smith. Almost 34 percent of Democratic voters were undecided and nearly 21 percent supported "someone else."

The results are based on a survey of 2,223 likely voters who were contacted between Nov. 29 and Dec. 30. The polls has a margin of error of 2.1 percent. The poll was commissioned by Convention of States Action, a group that is calling for a convention of states to adopt Constitutional amendments that would limit the power and jurisdiction of the federal government, impose fiscal restraints, and place term limits on federal officials.

The Trafalgar Group was recognized for having the most accurate South Carolina polling in the 2016 GOP primary and general election, as well as nationally in battleground states and Electoral College projection.

Bryant said the poll showing him in second place "is encouraging."

"Our chances are good," he added.

Bryant was the first candidate for governor to file a campaign-finance report for the final quarter of 2017. The report filed this week shows that his campaign collected nearly $46,000 in contributions and spent almost $81,000 between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31. The report shows that he has nearly $256,000 in campaign cash on hand.

A spokeswoman for McMaster's campaign did not respond to an email seeking comment. A spokeswoman for Templeton declined to comment on the poll.

Noble, who is campaigning as a reform-minded outsider, said the large number of respondents surveyed by the Trafalgar Group shows "clearly it is a legitimate poll."

"You would always rather be ahead than behind," he said.

A spokesman for Smith did not respond to an email seeking comment.

The Republican and Democratic primaries in South Carolina will take place June 12.

According to the poll, 53 percent of respondents approve of President Trump's job performance. His job-approval marks varied by party, with 76 percent of Republicans expressing approval while 83 percent of Democrats expressed disapproval.

The poll also found that almost 65 percent of respondents expressed a favorable opinion about a convention of states after the idea was explained to them.

A total of 34 states must agree to call for such a convention before it can take place. Any Constitutional amendments coming out of such a convention would need to be approved by 38 states to take effect.

A total of 12 states have called for a convention of states, according to Convention of States Action website.

Robert Cahaly, senior strategist and pollster at The Trafalgar Group, said "this survey confirms what we expected," according to a statement issued by the firm.

"The Governor is well ahead of his primary opponents who are in a battle for second place and the Democrat primary is a toss up with uncertainty about who the final candidates will be," Cahaly said.

"South Carolina is still a very conservative state on issues like term limits and federal spending," Cahaly said. "The Convention of States questions demonstrate that frustration with the way Washington does business has resulted in a growing number of Palmetto state voters embracing constitutional remedies that go around Congress for needed reform.

“Based on these numbers I wouldn't be too surprised, in an election year, to see the South Carolina General Assembly pass the Conventions of States call and join the majority of Southern states already on board with this movement," Cahaly said.

Follow Kirk Brown on Twitter @KirkBrown_AIM and email him at kirk.brown@independentmail.com