Jim Cramer shares his views every day on RealMoney. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.

Cramer: This Jobs Report Setup Is Great, So Is It Time to Sell?

Posted at 10:59 a.m. EDT on Friday, Feb. 3, 2017



If you want higher stock prices you want this setup. You've got job growth strong, but little-to-no wage inflation. You have earnings that I still think are better than expected, with the key companies reporting terrific quarters--including Visa (V) - Get Report , which has a great read on the economy. Visa painted a very positive view of the U.S. economy and the global economy.

And, you have Gary Cohn talking about the President helping to create jobs through the tripod of lower taxes, repatriation and deregulation--of which, only the latter can be done unilaterally. It's clear from Cohn's talk with us on CNBC that specific impediments to job growth are being addressed instantly and swiftly.

Specifically, Cohn told me that Dodd Frank has been a huge impediment to lending, and that it's time to revise the portions that are unnecessary. I would add that such reform of the legislation is needed, given how difficult it is to comply with and, more importantly, how much capital has been raised by our banks, which is why they are the strongest in the world.

Of all the things I heard Friday morning, the only sticking point for an investor is the border tax issue, causing companies that are importing goods to be tax disadvantaged. That means retailers remain tough investments--but even these become buys at a certain point, as we watch the stock of Macy's (M) - Get Report going higher on a potential takeout by Hudson's Bay.

All in all, it is a good setup--despite rates going lower, which has been a big negative for stocks ever since the election.

This is the kind of day you have to think about when you sell stocks off the volatility of the White House and the notion that things are just too darned mercurial to invest for either the short or the long term.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Cramer: Amazon's Devotees Will Buy Again

Posted at 7:00 a.m. EDT on Friday, Feb. 3, 2017



Do we give Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report a free pass? In a total anomaly, Growth Seeker portfolio name Amazon crushed the earnings estimates, notching $1.54 vs. $1.36.

But literally everything else, nearly every other line, from the revenues to Amazon Web Services to international growth, was slightly lower than was expected.

And the guidance was nothing to write home about either.

In a vacuum, you would have to say either that Amazon didn't execute as well as we thought it could--hard analysis, given its earnings per share superiority--or the business is slowing and has gotten more competition, the other guys have figured it out.

To me, Amazon is so inscrutable--I always find its conference calls painful in their opacity--that I hesitate to draw any conclusions about what really happened or what will happen. A strong dollar clearly hurt the company for a couple of percent (Eric Jhonsa, as always, has every relevant number if you want to see the compares and the slowdowns year over year and linked quarter).

It made a huge push in India just when the country embarked on a demonetization that hurt all business except Action Alerts PLUS charity portfolio holding Apple's (AAPL) - Get Report . It is building warehouses like mad. But then again, none of that impacted its earnings; it's just that Amazon is uniquely not an earnings story. In fact, we would prefer to see revenues blown out the door and earnings disappointing as a sign that Amazon's overwhelmed with business.

The market bid Amazon's stock up furiously, knowing that bricks and mortar had a weak holiday season. We figured that the business must have gone to Amazon. Some of it may have. Some of it went to Apple, too, as we learned earlier this week.

So what's the takeaway? I think that there are going to be several factors that control here. One is that we won't have any idea how well Amazon is doing for another three months. Two is that the chartists will now talk about a double top formation, which will loom for the closet technicians at the hedge funds. Three is that we only know how to value it on momentum of revenues and when we don't have that we tend to let it go down to some level where we hear of a new reason to buy. (I hope it isn't content-related--way too many questions about that on the call.)

Then we will start thinking about its inventions and how well they are doing. We will hear about more roll-outs of stores of the future. We will get more benefits from Prime. The dollar will not stay as strong. We will get anecdotal evidence that India is better. We will have more brick and mortar shrinkage and we will come around to loving it again.

That's what cuts in its favor. Now, it has always paid to buy the dip of Amazon, and I sense it will once again. The only caveat is the depth of the dip. Given the revenue slowdowns and misses on all categories, I sense the decline will be longer and deeper than usual.

But then the devotees will buy again. Be patient. But be ready for when the evidence overwhelms that this relatively unimportant quarter we are in will result in an acceleration of revenues and give Amazon the pass that it so definitely deserves.

We aren't going to buy it for Action Alerts PLUS: we own Alphabet (GOOGL) - Get Report and Facebook (FB) - Get Report and you can only own so many FANGs before you are undiversified. But I can't blame anyone for wanting to use the dip to get in, even as the reasons for the dip this time have more to do with not exceeding way too high revenue expectations as opposed to those directly linked to the profits that have been relatively elusive the entire run.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long AAPL, GOOGL, FB.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long AAPL, GOOGL and FB.