Here is the order:

“The sentencing hearing for Defendant Keith Raniere will be held on January 17, 2020 at 11:00 AM in Courtroom 4D South. Ordered by Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis on 10/4/2019. (Entered: 10/04/2019).”

Keith Alan Raniere AKA Vanguard was convicted on June 19, 2019. This date is known by some as Vangone Day.

The jury deliberated less than four hours [counting an hour for lunch and the time it took to fill out their lunch menu cards].

So let us look at what 12 people, who sat in the same courtroom with Raniere for six weeks, and heard the evidence against him, unanimously agreed upon, and for which he will be sentenced.

Raniere was found guilty of

COUNT ONE Racketeering Conspiracy

COUNT TWO Racketeering

COUNT THREE Forced Labor Conspiracy

COUNT FOUR Wire Fraud Conspiracy

COUNT FIVE Sex Trafficking Conspiracy

COUNT SIX Sex Trafficking of Nicole

COUNT SEVEN Attempted Sex Trafficking of Jay

Perhaps most significant is that the jury not only agreed that Raniere was guilty of sex trafficking Nicole, but that he used “force, fraud or coercion” to get Nicole to “engage in one or more commercial sex acts.”

This comes with a steep, mandatory 15 years in prison- something the judge cannot reduce.

Keith will get at least 15 years no matter how lenient Judge Nicholas G. Garuafis might otherwise be inclined to be toward Raniere.

In addition, the jury also concluded that every one of the “predicate acts’ that made up the racketeering charge against him were acts that Raniere actually engaged in.

They found him guilty on every charge, and every predicate act was proven to the satisfaction of the jury.

Here are the predicate acts the jury unanimously agreed were proven.

Racketeering Act 1

1A (Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft – Ashana Chenoa)

Proved.

Raniere conspired with several others to get Daniela [who got immunity and who testified against him] into the US illegally by using the name of the late Ashana Chenoa, a perfect stranger to them.]

1B (Conspiracy to Unlawfully Possess Identification Document)

They had a bogus ID for Chenoa that got Daniela across the border.

Racketeering Act 2 (Sexual Exploitation of a Child on November 2, 2005 – Camila)

Raniere had taken nude pictures of 15-year-old Camila on Nov. 2, and 24, 2005 and stupidly kept those in his so-called Library [some call it his sex lair] a townhouse at 8 Hale Drive in suburban Albany, NY.

This was perhaps the lynchpin of the entire case against him – and the primary cause of his co-defendants taking plea deals – in my opinion. It was especially stupid of Raniere to have left those images of Camila there [he might have forgotten them] on a hard drive. [He had many hard drives with thousands of nude pictures collected over the years]. He abandoned his home and his sex lair in Nov. 2017 to flee to Mexico. [Frank Report broke the news of his fleeing in December and even gave his new address in a post, with pictures.]

The evidence of Camila came late in the investigation.

Had he simply destroyed all his hard drives and computers, this dunce might have fared entirely differently. It was the awful proof of his sexual exploitation of a child, that formed the basis of a superseding indictment.

His co-defendants – Allison Mack, Kathy Russell, Clare Bronfman, Lauren Salzman and the first to take a plea deal, Nancy Salzman – all made deals with the feds within weeks of the underage Camila pictures becoming part of the evidence of the case. I don’t think that was a coincidence.

Racketeering Act 3 (Sexual Exploitation of a Child on November 24, 2005 – Camila)

This again is based on sexually graphic photos of Camila.

Racketeering Act 4 (Possession of Child Pornography)

This again is based on the photos of Camila, which Raniere stupidly kept in his library for some 12 years before they were seized by the feds.

Racketeering Act 5

5A (Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft)

5B (Identity Theft – James Loperfido)

Raniere and his coconspirators – including Kathy Russell – hacked into accountant James Loperfido’s email account. The reason for this is, in part, that they were trying to hack into his associate, Joseph O’Hara’s email account.

5C (Identity Theft – Edgar Bronfman)

Raniere and his co-conspirators – including Clare Bronfman – hacked into Clare’s father’s email account so they could spy on him.

Racketeering Act 6 (Conspiracy to Alter Records for Use in an Official Proceeding)

Raniere and Nancy Salzman – with the help of Mark Vicente – who, he testified, did not know why he was asked to do it – altered video that was later used in evidence in a federal civil case Nxivm brought against Rick Ross.

Racketeering Act 7 (Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft – Marianna)

They hacked into Mariana’s accounts.

Racketeering Act 8

8A (Trafficking for Labor and Services – Daniela)

They forced Daniela to do labor and services – without pay – which included a series of book reports on books in Raniere’s library.

8B (Document Servitude – Daniela)

Raniere, Lauren Salzman and others – after confining Daniela to a room in Clifton Park NY for 700 days – refused to return documents – including her birth certificate – when they let her return to Mexico. She was without ID for some time, because Raniere and Lauren would not agree to give them back to her.

Racketeering Act 9 (Extortion)

The extortion arose out of the fear of DOS slaves who were required to do certain acts – while Raniere and the other DOS slave masters, such as Lauren and Allison Mack – held damning collateral [blackmail worthy material].

Racketeering Act 10

10A (Sex Trafficking – Nicole)

10B (Forced Labor – Nicole)

Nicole had to help with the late Pam Cafritz’s memorial service – which she felt she was forced to do – not because she wanted to, but because Raniere and Mack held her collateral and might release it if she did not do it.

Racketeering Act 11 (Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft – Pamela Cafritz)

Raniere, along with others, notably Clare Bronfman, used the late Pam Cafritz’s American express credit card to charge up hundreds of thousands of dollars. They did pay the card – but it is a crime to use a dead person’s credit card – even if you pay it.

So what will Raniere’s sentence be?

We know it will be at least 15 years for the sex trafficking of Nicole alone.

Racketeering, racketeering conspiracy, forced labor, sex trafficking conspiracy all come with a maximum 20 years. [There is no minimum] Sex trafficking by use of force, fraud etc. comes with a max of 25 [minimum 15].

If the judge wants to throw the book at him, he could sentence Raniere to the maximum on each charge – to run consecutively.

That would mean a sentence of 145 years for the 59 year old Raniere.

Despite Raniere’s lack of prior criminal history and his age, sentencing guidelines for the combined nature of his conviction will be steep.

I would estimate the sentencing guidelines range would be in the 30 years-to life range.

While no one can predict what sentence the judge will hand out, it seems to me, based on the high profile nature of the case, the seriousness of some of the charges, the odious nature of the revelations that came out at trial, the destruction of other human lives associated with Raniere – that the judge will not come down with anything less than 30 years.

With time off for good behavior and time served, Raniere would be free at age 83-84 if he got 30 years, and was well behaved, and, of course, he lived that long in a maximum-security prison.

If for some reason the judge exercised maximum leniency and gave Raniere the bare minimum – 15 years – with good behavior and time served [he has 1 and 1/2 years in already], he could be out in little more than 11 years. He would be 70.

The question is really whether Keith will get a life sentence or not.

I tend to suspect that when judges think through these kinds of sentences, part of their consideration might be whether or not the defendant will always be – regardless of age – a menace to society.

If they think that a defendant is going to be always dangerous, if the charges warrant it, they hand down a life sentence – or a sentence that assures a defendant’s imprisonment last beyond his likely lifespan – [i.e. 90 years].

If the judge thinks Raniere might, as an old man, be less of a danger, he can calculate it that way.

At what age would a Raniere be safe to be with innocent human beings again?

Does he hand Raniere a sentence where he can get out when he is 70, 75, 80, 85?

I think the pivotal question for the judge if he thinks along these lines [and he has plenty of discretion] will be whether to let an elderly Raniere ever see the light of day.

I doubt – and this is just my opinion – the judge will think Raniere will be safe at any age in his early 70s.

Then the next question is – would Raniere be safe to be let loose when he is in his 80s? Nineties in most cases are moot – for few live that long – especially in the hell holes of American prisons. Even 80s is a reach.

I predict Raniere either gets life [or life equivalent] – the harsh sentence – or the judge shows some leniency and gives him a chance to breathe free air one day. If he gave him 26 years, Raniere potentially gets out at age 80.

I would guess Raniere gets 30 years, or something close to that. After all, Raniere was not convicted of murder.

At least not yet.

I am investigating that possibility that he murdered some and attempted it with others – but that is another story which I will be reporting on the results very soon.

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