Other than the woman herself, no one knows for sure why Julie Bishop strode into that press conference wearing those striking red shoes to sign off as Australia’s first female foreign minister. Perhaps Bishop’s only intent was to cheer herself up. She’d mentioned in the past that donning a pair of scarlet heels could raise a woman’s spirits. And who would begrudge her such a small act of self-comfort if it was what she needed? Just days before, Australia’s most popular politician had been very publicly snubbed by colleagues when she ran for the Liberal party’s leadership.

Following Bishop’s press conference, Fairfax’s award-winning photographer Alex Ellinghausen posted an unconventional shot of the event on Twitter. The angle was all scarlet heels blazing before the dark masculine suits and shoes of the assembled media. The image flew around the Twittersphere, swiftly symbolising what Bishop’s treatment revealed about the Liberal party: its merit system had been exposed as a sham.

And so, thanks to the keen eye of Ellinghausen and the power of social media, Bishop’s red shoes became much more than a potential pick-me-up. They became a rallying point for women who’d had enough – with the Liberal boys’ club that used intimidation to subdue them, and the discredited principle of “merit” to suppress them. These women became a nascent political movement, one that threatens to overturn decades of Liberal thinking – and rhetoric – that insists Liberal women can only succeed on merit.

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It’s accepted wisdom but a fallacy that the number of Liberal women in federal parliament has steadily declined since Paul Keating’s Labor government lost in a landslide to John Howard’s Coalition in 1996. In truth, the total number of female Liberal MPs and senators has remained static since 1996.

But there is something about the Howard win in 1996 that makes people remember it favourably. Perhaps 1996 is considered a high-water mark due to the record number of Liberal women elected that year. Thirteen female MPs were added to the Liberal party’s ranks in 1996, increasing the total number of Liberal women in federal parliament from 11 to 23. The previous record intake was four new Liberal women elected in 1993.

Or perhaps it’s because many of the esteemed Liberal women who went on to fight progressive battles within their party were elected in either 1993 or 1996. That honour roll includes the West Australian Judi Moylan, who was part of a Liberal backbench revolt during the Howard years that forced the release of women and children from immigration detention. Victorian Judith Troeth was also part of that group, later crossing the floor to abolish the mandatory billing of asylum seekers for their detention, and to support the Rudd Labor government’s carbon pollution reduction scheme. And so was Teresa Gambaro, the member for Brisbane, who campaigned during the Abbott years in support of marriage equality.

Even if the Howard era is sometimes feted as some sort of golden age for Liberal women, closer inspection reveals this to be far from the truth. At first blush, it’s impressive that 10 of the 17 women elected for the first time in 1993 or 1996 were appointed to Howard’s ministry during his 11 years in office, but only one member of that political generation, Helen Coonan, eventually made it to cabinet.

That’s not to say Howard had a poor record when appointing women to the cabinet – he always had at least two female cabinet ministers, which rose to three and then four in the later years of his government. However, it’s difficult to accept that the bounty of accomplished Liberal women elected in 1993 and 1996 did not include at least a few more who were worthy of being appointed to cabinet over the following decade. If they did exist, Howard chose to squander their potential rather than cultivate it.

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Not one of the Liberal women elected for the first time in 1993 or 1996 remains in parliament today. By contrast, three Liberal men elected in 1993 or 1996 remain: former prime minister Tony Abbott, Queensland’s Warren Entsch, and minister for defence Christopher Pyne. Two other men, Kevin Andrews and Victorian moderate Russell Broadbent, were elected even earlier.

More than half of those women lost to Labor in subsequent elections, leaving seven members of that cohort to eventually retire on their own terms. By then the Liberal Women’s Forum [that delivered the bumper intake of Liberal women in 1996] had faded away, allowing Liberal men to regain dominance over the party’s preselections. As a result, all but one of those seven women was succeeded by a man.

Moylan’s successor was Christian Porter, the former West Australian treasurer. Another Liberal rebel who crossed the floor to support asylum seekers, Danna Vale, was followed in the New South Wales seat of Hughes by Craig Kelly, the staunch Abbott supporter and climate sceptic (although his preselections haven’t always been plain sailing). Coonan’s place in the Senate was filled by New South Wales Liberal party elder Arthur Sinodinos, who was also the former chief of staff to John Howard. South Australian former journalist Chris Gallus was followed by Simon Birmingham, a long-time Liberal staffer. Birmingham lost that election to Labor, but later became the youngest member of the Senate when he replaced another Liberal woman from the class of 1996, the legendary government whip in the Senate, Jeannie Ferris, after she died from cancer. Gambaro was succeeded by former lobbyist and Liberal staffer Trevor Evans, and Sharman Stone by former president of the National Farmers’ Federation Donald McGauchie (although he lost to the Nationals’ Damian Drum).

Only the New South Wales MP Joanna Gash was succeeded by a woman – her staffer Ann Sudmalis, who has become a prominent member of the red shoe brigade. A former science teacher and small business operator, Sudmalis was among the women who spoke out after the leadership spill of August 2018 to condemn the culture of intimidation and bullying that pervaded the modern Liberal party and was particularly directed at women. Due to the bullying she endured, Sudmalis decided to retire at the next federal election. [Since that decision, Sudmalis has been replaced not once but twice by men: Grant Schulz and Warren Mundine.]

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As a result, out of the 14 Coalition MPs in predominantly safe seats who’ve retired since September 2015, 13 have been succeeded by men.

Male dominance over Liberal preselections hasn’t yet significantly affected the number of Liberal women in federal parliament, but it’s likely to become an obvious factor if Liberal women in marginal seats lose to Labor candidates in the landslide predicted at the 2019 federal election. Without preselecting additional women to replace them in safe Liberal seats (seats that can withstand a large swing to Labor) or winnable positions on the Senate ticket, the party’s female representation in parliament could be reduced at the next election to pre-Howard-era levels.

Even so, there’s very little motivation for ambitious men to make way for women with merit when a safe Liberal seat is in the offing. After all, the Liberal party stands for individual freedom and a competitive market, so it’s every man (or woman) for themselves, and may the best man win.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest On Merit by Paula Matthewson cover image Photograph: Melbourne University Press

That approach might even work if the Liberal men and women were competing for preselection on a level playing field. But just as there are factors in society that tilt the field towards male players, there are factors in Liberal preselection processes that disadvantage women.

This resistance stems from the fundamental Liberal belief that success must be achieved through merit rather than special treatment. As some Liberal women have grown to understand that Liberal men without merit are still being rewarded, they’ve lost their anti-quota fervour and begun to seek other ways to advance. That includes women from the Class of ’96, who would likely have worn red in solidarity with Julie Bishop if they were still in parliament today.

This is an edited extract from On Merit, by Paula Matthewson, Melbourne University Press, $14.99