The onset of the four-month southwest monsoon, which contributes around 70 per cent of India’s rainfall, is in June. (Express Photo/Kamleshwar Singh/File) The onset of the four-month southwest monsoon, which contributes around 70 per cent of India’s rainfall, is in June. (Express Photo/Kamleshwar Singh/File)

Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting company, has predicted that India will receive a ‘normal’ monsoon — when average rainfall falls between 96-104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) — this year. The onset of the four-month southwest monsoon, which contributes around 70 per cent of India’s rainfall, is in June and retreats by September.

Skymet added that Peninsular India and a major portion of Northeast India is at a higher risk of being rain deficient. Eastern India, particularly Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal, is most likely to see normal monsoon rains through the season.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

Skymet also predicted a 20 per cent chance of above normal rainfall, 20 per cent chance of below normal rainfall and a zero per cent chance of drought. Seasonal rainfall between 90-96 LPA is considered ‘below normal’ and anything below 90 per cent of LPA is termed a ‘deficient’ monsoon.

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