posted by Nahaz

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Na'Vi

Alliance

50%

551-524 (51.3%)

554-528

55.7%

62.3%

67.6%

50%

51%

50%

Na'Vi

56.7%

74.5%

The "Dire Advantage" has long been a subject of debate between Dota players of all levels. As most will know, the usual story holds that the placement of the Roshan pit tends to favor Dire. Some tournaments, in fact, go so far as to build in advantages to the Radiant side, such as first pick or server choice, in an effort to counteract this.At the same time, the competitive scene is shifting arguably faster than ever before. The Dire advantage has come up there, too. For example, Dotametrics points out that at TI3, the Radiant side actually held the advantage, probably due to's preference for second pick Radiant. They also find that in 6.77 pub matches , Radiant actually has a dramatic advantage in shorter games, while the Dire advantage kicks in late. In his ingenious draft overlays in DreamLeague casts, Statsman Bruno pointed out's sub-win rate as first pick Dire.As it turns out, about as many competitive Dota 2 matches have been played so far in the current patch (6.79) as were played between the end ofand the release of version 6.79 on October 20, 2013. In 6.78 following TI3,had aedge. So far in 6.79, we've seen almost exactly the reverse, with Dire holding aadvantage. Let's take a closer look at how each side has fared:Surprisingly (to me, anyway), some of the same patterns Dotametrics finds in 6.77 public matches show up here, but in different ways. Despite the popular conception that 6.79 favors push strategies and aggressive, midgame-focused, skirmish-oriented lineups, the average 6.79 match is actually longer by just under a minute (33:52 compared to 32:55). On closer inspection, this somewhat unexpected shift shows up both in the match time and win rate distributions: while the Radiant edge in 6.78 is almost entirely due to superior performance in the early- to mid-game, the Dire advantage in the current patch shows up most strongly in the late game. This is particularly surprising given the prominent rise of early game heroes like Pugna, whois 39-19 in 6.79 matches that end before 25 minutes.It's worth noting that we're talking about relatively small edges. Of all the win rates we're looking at here, only the Radiant'sedge in 20-30 minute matches in 6.78 and Dire's 6.79 advantages ofin 40-50 andin 60+ minute games are statistically different from(*). The overall win rates in either patch (just over, in opposite directions) are not significant statistically, either fromor from each other.So while this isn't any kind of sweeping indictment of map balance, it's still interesting to ask what might drive these advantages. A quick check shows the obvious answer, Roshan, is... well, not so obvious.Unlike the first figure, here the advantages we're looking at are dramatic. However, the edge is actually largest in the early game: Dire's 221 Roshan kills before 20 minutes is 6.5 times Radiant's total (34). A quick look back at data from 6.78 shows a similar pattern, with the exception that Dire has a smaller advantage between 15-20 minutes and a larger edge between 25-30; again theof what we'd expect if Rosh was the sole factor in driving Dire win rates.This certainly doesn't rule out Roshan as the explanation - in particular, the value of an Aegis in the lategame is arguably much larger in most situations. At the very least, though, it does suggest there are more factors in play. To me, the nerf to pulling supports in 6.79, which all but nullifies the advantage to tri-pulling the Radiant side jungle, is at least as big a deal as Roshan.Team-specific effects are another possibility., for example, has awin rate in 6.79 pro Dota 2, down almost 20% from theirwin rate in 6.78 matches after TI3. The presence of more Eastern tournament matches in the latter part of the sample may also play a role, though I doubt this is a huge factor. Radiant is 22-22 so far in the G-League Finals, for example, and the difference in average match times across Dire and Radiant wins is minimal.To me, the question remains open: Is there a "Dire Advantage", and if so, what causes it? At the very least, I'd say there's enough uncertainty that building in any kind of advantage to the Radiant side in high-level tournament play is questionable. This is an exciting time for competitive Dota 2, and fast paced changes in the metagame will continue to challenge old school convention. What do YOU think is going on here? Feel free to post your explanations in the comments, or by Tweeting @NahazDota . Until then, thanks for reading!(*) NOTE: While the 10-minute 'bin length' is admittedly arbitrary, the results seem reasonably robust to how the data is grouped. For example, similar results emerge with 5- and 15-minute bins.