It occurred to me it’s been awhile since I last checked in on Michigan’s State Senate, since it was the first installment in the State Legislative Ratings series. That meant the last time I wrote about it was way back in mid-May. Since then, we’ve had campaign finance updates as well as results from Tuesday’s primary, meaning it’s the right time to check back in and see how things are going on. I’ve made a number of ratings changes since then, so let’s look at the ratings chart:

Michigan Senate Ratings

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 10 7 15 14 20 12 17 22 29 13 31 38 24 32 34

Lean D: 10, 20, 29, 38

10th District: Open (Rocca)

This is our first ratings change, as we had this seat as a tossup last time around. It’s an R+6 Macomb County seat that neither Obama nor Clinton won, which in theory makes it a tough seat. However, Democrats have the right candidate and Republicans had unquestionably their worst recruiting whiff of the cycle. For Team Blue, it’s State Rep. Henry Yanez, whose district overlaps with a good chunk of this seat, while the GOP could only get financial advisor Michael MacDonald. At the last reporting period, Yanez had raised $59K and had $87K cash-on-hand, while MacDonald had raised just $20K and had a measly $1K in the bank. Since MacDonald had to best three GOP rivals to get the nomination, he’s in a huge money hole, and that’s problematic for him given he’s trying to make up a name recognition gap. While the partisan lean of the seat may save MacDonald, even Republicans acknowledge this is a very hard seat for them, and so it moves to Lean D.

20th District: Margaret O’Brien

O’Brien is the most endangered State Senate incumbent and it’s not particularly close. It’s also another ratings change, moving from Tossup → Lean D as well. The seat is simply Kalamazoo County, a county that leans well to the left, meaning the PVI of SD-20 is D+5. O’Brien was carried to her first term by the 2014 red wave, winning this seat by just 59 votes. She’s staring down a rematch with Sean McCann and both raised over $100K in the last reporting period. It’s going to be expensive and O’Brien is well funded, but at the end of the day, this is a very blue constituency and with the type of year 2018 is shaping up to be, it is very hard to imagine how O’Brien hangs on. Furthermore, of the primary votes cast in Tuesday’s primary, 59% of them were on the D side for McCann and just 41% of them were on the R side for O’Brien. There’s also a Libertarian in the race, which in theory would also hurt O’Brien. While the incumbency edge could save the incumbent, she is a clear underdog and it’s time the ratings reflect that.

29th District: Open (Hildebrand)

This was our only Lean D seat last time around, and it remains with that rating. SD-29 includes the City of Grand Rapids and has a D+4 PVI. It’s a highly educated seat that moved towards Clinton significantly in 2016, thanks to her improvement in the GR area/Kent County as a whole on the backs of traditionally conservative college educated white voters. Both sides have State Reps. here, with Dems nominating Winnie Brinks and Republicans nominating Chris Afendoulis. Both are raising huge amounts of money, and in the GR media market, this will also likely be an expensive battle. But like with SD-20, it’s just hard to see Republicans holding this seat in 2018. The primary voting breakdown was 57/43 in favor of Democrats and when you compare the respective districts, Brinks represents a large chunk of SD-29 in the State House, whereas Afendoulis’s district barely overlaps with this seat. Thus, Brinks remains a clear favorite to pick this seat up for the Democrats.

38th District: Open (Casperson)

This is the western UP district with an R+6 PVI. Like SD-10, it didn't vote for either Obama nor Clinton, yet Democrats are in a great position to flip it from R → D because they have the best candidate. Team Blue has State Rep. Scott Dianda, while Team Red has former State Rep. Ed McBroom. While their elected offices are on the same playing field and they’ve raised about the same amount of money, Dianda is stronger for a few reasons. First off, McBroom’s district was HD-108, an R+12 district in the southwestern UP, which is the most conservative part of SD-38. Meanwhile, Dianda’s seat is HD-110, which is the farthest west part of the UP, with a PVI of R+8. It means that Dianda has strong crossover appeal with conservatives, but it’s unclear if McBroom has crossover appeal with the more liberal voters in Marquette, which is the most populous part of this district. The UP also has a strong split ticket streak, with Dems holding HD-109 and HD-110 and almost flipping McBroom’s seat when it was vacant in 2016. All of those factors help Dianda, as does the fact that despite the heavily R PVI, Democrats nearly outvoted Republicans in the primary in this district. Like SD-10, Republicans acknowledge that this is a district they aren’t feeling too good about and thus, we move it to Lean D.

Tossup: 7, 12, 13, 24, 32, 34

7th District: Open (Colbeck)

This district is in outer Wayne County, particularly Livonia, Plymouth, and Canton. It has an R+1 PVI and it was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, and that, combined with the open seat status, make it a good pickup opportunity for Democrats. There was a bit of a snafu with the Democratic field, as it was revealed that then-Democratic frontrunner, Dr. Ghulam Qadir, had been a domestic abuser in his past. Thankfully, Democrats had a terrific backup option, in high school English teacher Dayna Polehanki, and she cruised to an easy primary win. She will have her work cut out for her in the general election against State Rep. Laura Cox, whose seat in the State House contains the Livonia part of SD-7. She’s got good name recognition and a lot of money, though it’s worth noting that Cox is allegedly at the top of Bill Schuette’s shortlist of potential running mates. If she were to be picked, that would be a huge boost for Democrats. However, regardless of how tough Cox may be, this is an area that is getting bluer relative to the state as a whole and a place where Democratic voters are extremely energized. In the primary, Democrats cast over 37,000 votes, while Republicans cast just 29,000 and it’s that kind of energy that could potentially put Polehanki over the top. She needs to pick up her fundraising, but now that the primary is over, I don’t doubt that she will. This is a tossup.

12th District: Open (Marleau)

An open Oakland County seat that starts in Pontiac and Auburn Hills before stretching north into some conservative territory, SD-12 is another very good Democratic pickup opportunity. In 2016, Clinton lost it by just 207 votes, and it contains another good chunk of college educated suburban voters. Democrats have known their candidate for awhile, IT businesswoman Rosemary Bayer, who is raising a very respectable amount of money. Republicans on the other hand, just decided on State Rep. Michael McCready, who defeated fellow State Rep. Jim Tedder by the slimmest of margins. Democrats probably would’ve preferred to face Tedder, but this seat is winnable either way. It’s worth noting that McCready’s HD-40 contains very little of SD-12, overlapping in Bloomfield Township, but that’s about it, so his appeal here may only be so much. He also emptied his big war-chest in order to best Tedder in the primary, so he’ll need to raise some more money. Lastly, this was another seat where Dems outvoted Republicans in the primary, so the enthusiasm is clearly quite strong here, and solidifies this as a tossup race.

13th District: Marty Knollenberg

SD-13 is the only suburban swing seat that has an incumbent, and that is all that is preventing it from being Lean D. It’s an EVEN PVI seat that Clinton won by 6 points, and the Democratic nominee raised over $100K in the last reporting period. That nominee is author Mallory McMorrow, whose monster fundraising period drew her even with Knollenberg for the period and narrowed the COH deficit significantly. Knollenberg is an incumbent with high name recognition due to his father, but as I noted last time around, he’s not without controversy. The Knollenberg brand is used to winning voters similar to the ones contained in this Bloomfield Hills/Birmingham/Troy/Rochester Hills Oakland County district, but 2018 will be the ultimate test of whether that brand can survive in modern Oakland County, as the area gets rapidly bluer. FWIW, the district overlaps a good deal with MI-11, a key swing congressional district that Dems are in a good position to pickup. And if they’re picking it up, that’s not great news for Knollenberg.

24th District: Open (Jones)

This R+5 district includes all of Eaton, Clinton, and Shiawassee Counties, as well as Williamston in Ingham County. It is essentially a number of localities that surround Lansing. It’s not an easy district for Democrats, as Romney won it by 200 votes and then Trump won it by 11, but it’s been put into play thanks to the prodigious fundraising capabilities of Democratic nominee Kelly Rossman-McKinney. She is the CEO of Truscott Rossman, a Lansing-area PR firm, and her gangbusters fundraising has left her with over $200K in the war-chest. Her opponent will be State Rep. Tom Barrett, who is a good candidate for the seat, as his State House district, HD-71 in Eaton County, is a swing seat as well and is a good bet to flip to the Dems, showing his crossover appeal. At this point in time, I have to think Barrett is favored here, but it’s going to be an expensive battle and if we’re in wave territory, which is a strong possibility, then this seat is very much up for grabs.

32nd District: Ken Horn

This is one of the two races where my opinion has changed most significantly since May. It’s represented by incumbent Ken Horn and it has an R+1 PVI. State Rep. Phil Phelps jumped in the race as a Democrat despite representing basically 0 of the district in the State House (a tiny bit of Flushing is it) and his first fundraising report was promising. While it wasn’t terrific in anyway, he actually did out-raise Horn, who raised close to nada. It’s a seat in Saginaw and Genesee Counties that Trump won by just 6 points and Obama won by 8, meaning that it is very swingy and Phelps has proved viable enough to really put it in play. Furthermore, Horn only won his 2014 term by a margin of 54-46 even in the great GOP year and primary voting was close to even here. It’s a tossup.

34th District: Open (Hansen)

This district is the full counties of Muskegon, Oceana, and Newaygo. Muskegon is a very Democratic county, while the other two are more red, but with Muskegon having most of the people, this leaves the PVI at a very playable R+2. There’s been quite a few developments since last time I updated this. Democrats had the entry of former State Rep. Collene Lamonte, who seemed like a favorite over non-profit director Poppy Sias-Hernandez in the primary, but Hernandez was able to win the primary. On the other side, State Rep. Holly Hughes raised an insane amount of money, a good deal from self-funding, and she too seemed like a good bet to win the primary over former State Rep. Jim Bumstead. But she also got upset, losing narrowly to Bumstead. I’m not sure who was stronger of the two but at least in terms of geography, it was Hughes. Hughes represents part of Muskegon County, which would get her better inroads in the more liberal part of the district, while Bumstead represented HD-100, which was the Newaygo/Oceana part of the district. Primary turnout was actually not half bad here for Republicans and both candidates don’t have a ton of money, with Sias-Hernandez raising a bit more than Bumstead, though both emptied their war-chests for the primary. At the end of the day this is a Trump+single digits seat, which means it is a tossup with a generic ballot in the high single digits and pretty balanced candidates.

Lean R: 15, 17

15th District: Open (Kowall)

The 15th district is located in southwestern Oakland County, including Wixom and South Lyon, and guess what? Like all the other Oakland County districts, it too saw a big shift towards Democrats in 2016. Clinton still lost it by 4, but compared to Obama who lost it by 6 while winning statewide by 10, it demonstrates the massive shift. It’s another seat that overlaps with MI-11 but it is no question the hardest flip opportunity in Oakland County. However, Democratic prospects here seem to have improved relative to May. For one, nurse Julia Pulver, the Democratic nominee, saw her fundraising improve substantially. It’s still not at a great pace, but compared to her anemic numbers earlier, it was music to Michigan Dems’s ears to see her post a $43K period. Furthermore, it was double what Republican nominee Jim Runestad raised. Democrats were also lucky to see Runestad nominated over former State Rep. Hugh Crawford, since Runestad is both more conservative (and thus more ideologically extreme), but also represents far less of SD-15 in the State House than Crawford did. And obviously, Runestad’s fundraising is sluggish. Finally, Democrats were delighted to see more votes cast on the Dem side than the GOP side in the primary, another sign of the juiced Dem enthusiasm in Oakland County. With an R+4 PVI and those presidential topline numbers, it’s not the easiest seat for Dems but if they continue to get good news here, this could move to tossup.

17th District: Dale Zorn

I’ve heard a lot of different takes on SD-17, which was one of the State Senate seats that took the largest D → R shift in 2016, going from a narrow Obama win to Trump +22, in the process wiping out downballot Dems at the State House level. One of those was State Rep. Bill LaVoy, who is running for this seat despite losing re-election to HD-17 in 2016. LaVoy is a known quantity in the Monroe area and his wife is running for his old seat in the State House, so some Monroe voters will have two LaVoys on the ballot in November. His fundraising was fine for someone who entered the race in late April, but it needs to be more robust in the next reporting period. For what it’s worth, Dale Zorn isn’t the greatest incumbent ever, winning by only 5 points in 2014, despite the strong GOP year. He’ll get an incumbency boost this time around, but with a worse national environment, he could be in trouble. Democratic primary turnout wasn’t great in Lenawee and Monroe, and I’m just rather cautious about the prospects of that region flipping back to Dems. Could it flip? Sure. But right now, I think I’d rather be a GOPer in this district than a Dem.

Likely R: 14, 22, 31

14th District: Open (Robertson)

This district consists of many of the non-Flint parts of Genessee County, including Fenton and Grand Blanc. Obama lost the 14th by just 4 points and Peters won it, but it had a violent swing towards Trump, with the Republican winning it by 17 points. Current Secretary of State Ruth Johnson is dropping down to run for this seat and she is the favorite over Renee Watson, who worked in the Flint Chamber of Commerce. However, the nature of this district as partially Oakland County, partially more rural Genesee County makes it an interesting mix and potentially ripe for a big turnout gap, which showed up in the primary, where Republicans cast 54% of votes and Democrats cast 46%. That was a lot better than the 2016 election and it suggests there is a slight opening for Watson, though again, this is still a big long shot.

22nd District: Open (Hune)

Speaking of turnout gaps, SD-22 is another example of this, as it’s a mix of western Washtenaw County, which is more educated and Democratic leaning, and combines it with the arch-conservative Livingston County. With an R+10 PVI, this is not a seat that should be remotely close, but it’s got an interesting mix of factors. Republicans are running State Rep. Lana Theis, who represents the southeastern part of Livingston County (Brighton). Democrats have veteran and prosecutor Adam Dreher, who is the type of candidate who could potentially have the crossover appeal needed to hold down the losses in Livingston. He doesn’t need to win that part of the seat, he just needs to not get clobbered, while running up the score in the Washtenaw part of the district. In some ways, it’s similar to OH-12 or PA-18 from special elections past. Primary turnout was about 56-44 in favor of the GOP which isn’t great, but it shows there is also a small opening here, so Likely R still feels right.

31st District: Open (Green)

The 31st district includes Bay, Tuscola, and Lapeer Counties, and is quite red, with an R+10 PVI. Yet, Bay County has decent Democratic infrastructure, and is a bit bluer down ballot, with the incumbent Green winning re-election by just 12 points in 2014 despite a strong pro-GOP national environment. Democratic candidate Cynthia Luczak, a Bay County Clerk, is the right candidate but is still having fundraising issues. She did better in the latest reporting period, but is still not hitting the marks needed to really compete. She will face former State Rep. Kevin Daley, who has a strong money advantage over her and right now this is simply a seat to watch if the tidal wave to end all tidal waves crashes ashore. Nothing more.

Bottom Line