And while Tottenham and Arsenal both had title chances in ’34 and ‘52, the mid-century First Division featured far more parity that the contemporary Premier League. Many other clubs had similar or better title chances than the North London rivals at the time of those two derbies. In 1952, Arsenal was third and Tottenham sixth, one and five points off league leaders Manchester United and Portsmouth, respectively. In 1934, their positions were better — Arsenal first and Tottenham fourth — but Spurs sat five points back and seventh-place West Brom was just six points off the title pace. Further, these two derbies both took place comparatively earlier in the season — Feb. 9, 1934 and Jan. 31, 1952.

Today, Arsenal and Tottenham are the only clubs within 10 points of league leaders Leicester City. And their derby on Saturday takes place with only 10 matches left to play in the season. In a more stratified league with fewer clear competitors, and later in the season, this is clearly the biggest match that Spurs and Arsenal have ever played.

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Match Projection

So exactly how important is this North London Derby? If Spurs win, Tottenham will have a six-point advantage on its rivals, whereas Arsenal can close the gap entirely with a victory. Although Leicester City would likely still be in first after a Tottenham win, Leicester’s relatively poor underlying statistics would make Tottenham projected favorites. Perhaps more surprisingly, Arsenal would be solid favorites over Spurs if the Gunners pull off the victory.

There are two reasons that Arsenal would be favored over Spurs after winning the Derby. First, Arsenal has the best expected goals difference in the Premier League (plus-28), while Spurs, despite having the second-best xGD, are significantly behind at plus-19. Second, and just as importantly, Arsene Wenger’s side has the easiest schedule remaining of all the title contenders. Of the Gunners’ remaining nine matches after the derby, only two are against clubs in the top half of the table. Only Manchester City remains of clubs with the best underlying numbers in the league.

To estimate the value of this schedule advantage, I created a simulator and projected how well a top club would perform against each title contender’s remaining schedule. The simulator found that Arsenal’s schedule is easier by about 0.1 expected points per match, which means that Arsenal has an effective one-point advantage on its rivals down the stretch.

Midfield Battle

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If Tottenham is to take its first title in a half-century, then Spurs probably need a result on Saturday. The key for Mauricio Pochettino’s side will be the fight for midfield. The two sides have kept possession more effectively than almost anyone in the league, with Arsenal leading at 56.1 percent possession and Tottenham in third with 55.1 percent. However, Spurs and Arsenal control possession and the center of the pitch very differently.

Spurs do so with one of the best structured presses in the Premier League. Pochettino has drilled his side to gegen- (or counter-) press, breaking up new opposition possession in midfield before it can develop into a counterattack. Only Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool has a higher gegenpressing rate, and Klopp is one of the inventors of this style of pressing. With this structured press, Tottenham control space and prevent opponents from reaching the central area of the final third from where the most dangerous attacks are launched.

Arsenal is different. The Gunners depend on a highly-skilled passing game to maintain possession rather than pressing the opposition early. Arsene Wenger’s side concedes more possession in the central area of the final third than most top clubs, but Arsenal counts on defensive midfielder Francis Coquelin to blow up attacks in this zone before they develop into good opposition chances.

The key battles in midfield, then, will be Arsenal’s skilled passing against Spurs’ counterpress and Coquelin fighting to prevent Spurs from proceeding from the attacking zone of midfield into the 18-yard-box. How these two battles play out in the center of the pitch is likely to determine who wins the biggest North London Derby ever.