Yes world, I’m afraid artificial intelligence is going to transform what it means to be human. However, I do not think this is a bad thing. Let me explain why.

Moshe Vardi, a professor at Rice University, made headlines recently after suggesting that by 2045 “AI could drive global unemployment to 50%, wiping out middle-class jobs and exacerbating inequality”.

This talk led to rather defeatist-sounding headlines such as “Would you bet against sex robots? AI ‘could leave half of world unemployed'”, “Robots: Destroying jobs, our economy, and possibly the world” and “How to know if a robot is about to steal your job”.

Vardi pronounces that he is against the utopian ideals of an easier lifestyle supported by artificially intelligent systems:

“I do not find this a promising future, as I do not find the prospect of leisure-only life appealing, I believe that work is essential to human wellbeing.” – Moshe Vardi

I think there is more to this. Work for work’s sake is not essential to human wellbeing. Work for the advancement of society, for improving the lives of others and the capabilities of humankind – that is what is essential. I do not believe artificial intelligence will ever prevent us from having this. I think we will always find more areas to advance in. I do not think AI will force us all of us to lead a leisurely life. Instead, I believe that avoiding advancement in science and technology due to fear mongering is unwarranted. The human race is capable of much more than these statements give it credit for.

But… What Will We Do?

Moshe Vardi poses the following question:

“If machines are capable of doing almost any work humans can do, what will humans do?” – Moshe Vardi

In a world where so many jobs are handled by artificial intelligence, there is an incredible opportunity for humankind to move its focus to greater things. We can put more minds towards new areas and new careers — taking society further and in completely new directions to what we can currently foresee. New careers will emerge and grow, entirely new industries may appear.

Tim Worstall had a great response to the question in a recent Forbes opinion piece. His response to Vardi’s question above was:

“The answer is, ‘something else’. And we can show this by historical experience. Take someone from perhaps 1750 and try to show them the modern world. Just about none of us have a job by what he would consider ‘work'”. — Tim Worstall

So — yes. We should be asking these questions and discussing the impact of artificial intelligence on society. Maybe futurists can start imagining the new roles in society that will emerge? However, I wonder if this is a situation where the true changes in humankind and its work pursuits will only really emerge once AI starts to truly show its potential and impact.

I do believe that Moshe Vardi’s comments were made in an effort to get us asking these questions and discussing the matter, rather than doomsaying for the sake of headlines. However, I worry that the media’s spin on it has people believing it is an inevitability that half of them will be unemployed… rather than a discussion on how we move beyond it and adapt.

The Economy

I’m rather confused about the impact of technological advancement to the economy, as I’ve read various “matter of fact” statements on this within the discussion that emerged from Vardi’s talk and on linked articles from it.

“Conventional economics would have you believe that as technology increases, so does productivity, wages and total output. It’s a theory that has held true since the industrial revolution, and seen the standard of living in developed countries go from mud hut to iPhones for all.” — Chris Mills

Whereas, The Economist discusses technology’s strange tendency to cause a slowdown in productivity growth:

“This failure of new technology to boost productivity (apart from a brief period between 1996 and 2004) became known as the Solow paradox. Economists disagree on its causes.” — The Economist

Personally, it’s incredibly tempting to jokingly blame “Facebook” as the cause of the Solow paradox of late but it was only just getting started in 2004. Yet, Vardi himself states productivity has been on the rise whilst wages have dropped:

“Citing research from MIT, he [Vardi] noted that although Americans continue to drive GDP with increasing productivity, employment peaked around 1980 and average wages for families have gone down.” — The Guardian

Tim Worstall, quoted earlier, had a fascinating economics-focused response:

“The coming rate of change is, even at the most extreme predictions, very much less than generally happens in the economy right now and has been for many decades. That we mechanise the production of services will simply make us all richer as all previous rounds of mechanisation have done. And as long as there’s unmet human needs and desires then there will always be something for labour to do: and if we’re meeting all human wants and desires then what on earth are we worrying about?” — Tim Worstall

By this point, I’m really not sure what impact technology is having on productivity and the economy. Is it making us richer? Are wages dropping? Are we getting less done? If anyone has any good sources for the true stats behind this, please do get in touch!

We Need Discussion, Priorities and Worldwide Oversight

Whilst I disagree with the fear mongering and wild headlines about artificial intelligence taking over, there is a more rational approach to the area which I believe makes much more sense. Wendell Wallach, a bioethicist at Yale University, is pushing for “directing 10% of AI/robotics research funding to studying and adapting to the societal impact of intelligent machines; creating an oversight and governance coordinating committee for AI/robotics; and a presidential order declaring that lethal autonomous weapons systems are in violation of international humanitarian law” (Source: Phys.org). This makes the most sense. Technological innovation is important and it should happen, but there is no reason why it we cannot ensure its research is managed and overseen to keep it on a beneficial path for society.

“Humanity needs to be vigilant if it wants to exact the benefits of technological possibilities while minimizing the harms. There are inflection points, windows of opportunity, where we can shape the trajectory of a new technology. A little adjustment early on can take us toward a very different destination. But these windows open and close very quickly.” — Wendell Wallach

Last year, many well known people in the industry, including Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak and Moshe Varde himself, signed an open letter which was aimed at setting research priorities for “ensuring that AI remains robust and beneficial, and aligned with human interests”. There are plenty of very positive discussion points within the research priorities document attached to that letter.

Let’s spend our time focusing on how to advance and adapt humanity using artificial intelligence, rather than grimly predicting the downfall of society and the economy. Great times are ahead, let’s embrace them and navigate towards them in the safest and most beneficial way possible. Who knows what being a human will be like in 50 years?

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