Email WhatsApp 172 Shares

By Scott Gilfoid: IBF welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr. (22-0, 19 KOs) says he’s an all-around better fighter than WBA/WBC 147-pound champion Keith “One Time” Thurman (28-0, 22 KOs), and he predicts that he’s going to knockout the 28-year-old Florida native once he gets him in the ring. Getting Thurman into the ring, of course, won’t be easy. Spence will get a fight with Thurman eventually. We’ll likely be seeing the two face each other in 2018, as long as neither of them get beaten in 2017.

Thurman has not been chomping at the bit to fight Spence. In the past when boxing fans were trying to encourage Thurman to make the fight with Spence, he said he wasn’t experienced enough. Thurman wanted to see how Spence did against Leonard Bundu and against the other fighters in the welterweight division. Now that Spence has stopped Bundu and Kell Brook, Thurman isn’t saying much. Thurman can’t take a fight with Spence right now anyway, because he’s just had elbow surgery, and he won’t be back in action until at least December.

Spence notes that Thurman has gassed out in fights against Danny Garcia and Robert Guerrero. Spence believes that he’s got better stamina than Thurman, and that he’s the better fighter than him.

“Keith Thurman hasn’t fulfilled his full potential yet? When is he going to show it?” said Spence to 78sportsTV. “He’s been a professional for 10 years now. I know I can beat Keith Thurman. I think physically, he’s not as strong as Kell Brook. I feel like Keith Thurman is small, 5’8”, 5’7”. I feel like we have the same speed. I feel like I’m in better shape than him. All around, I feel like I’m a better fighter than Keith Thurman. He does have power, but I have power too. I feel like everything is in my favor in that fight. I just feel like I’ll beat him,” said Spence about Thurman.

What could hurt Thurman’s chances of beating Spence is him gassing out. Thurman couldn’t afford to only fight hard for 6 rounds against a fighter like Spence, because he would take the fight to him in the second half of the bout and wear him down with body shots the way he did with Kell Brook in their fight last month. Thurman totally gassed out in his March 4 fight with Danny Garcia. The fight was there for Garcia to win in the last 6 rounds, but he didn’t put enough pressure on Thurman to win. One of the reasons Thurman was able to get the win over Danny was because he was being elusive in the last six rounds. Thurman made sure that he wouldn’t be caught by Garcia by moving around constantly. Thurman does that with everyone he fights. He builds up a lead, and then retreats all around the ring to keep from getting hit.

Thurman has outgrown the welterweight division in my opinion. The way that Thurman is gassing out after 6 rounds is a telltale sign that he’s no longer able to fight at 147. That’s how it is with fighters that fade after 6 rounds or less. It shows that the fighter is weight drained from having lost too much weight. We saw that with Kell Brook in his fight with Spence on May 27, and we’ve been seeing that with Adrien Broner as well.

Thurman is going to need to move up to 154 soon so he fight in a weight class that is more suited to his body size. When Thurman rehydrates for his fights at 147, he looks like a middleweight. Thurman has got to be taking off a TON of weight each time he drains down to fight at 147. Thurman then rehydrates and looks like a middleweight. I’m just saying.

“In the early rounds, Shawn Porter was winning the battle of the jabs,” said Spence in discussing Porter’s fight with Thurman. “Shawn Porter was fighting good on the outside in the first 4 rounds, but then Shawn Porter regressed and went back to what he usually does, a kind of brawling style. I feel like that’s what hindered him, but he showed that he can use his jab and the jab works. I think he exposed him a little bit, but Keith Thurman showed he can fight through adversity and he has grit,” said Spence.

Porter probably wasn’t going to beat Thurman even if he chose to stay on the outside and jab all night long. The reason for that was because Thurman was hitting and running with single pot shots. Porter left himself wide open for Thurman’s left-right combinations when he would come forward trying to chase him. Porter needed to jab his way into position while chasing Thurman, because he was getting hit too frequently when he would go after him with his big power shots. Thurman was fine with running all over the ring.

There was no way that Porter was going to be able to catch up to Thurman once he started running. Porter should have advanced slowly behind his jab. If Thurman wanted to run, which he clearly did, then Porter should have let him do that. Thurman was just wasting energy by his running. Thurman felt that he had to run from Porter, and he was clearly doing that, made him look bad.

“I see that he faded just like he did with Robert Guerrero,” said Spence about Thurman’s recent close win over Danny Garcia last March. ”He faded in the later rounds. I guess he got tired and started running around the ring. I feel like Danny should have picked up the pace, but he just didn’t,” said Spence.

For Spence to hand Thurman his first loss of his career, he’s got to stay on top of him for the full 12 rounds.

Here are the keys to Spence beating Thurman:

– Force Thurman to fight hard for the full 3 minute of each round in the first 6 rounds. Don’t be passive the way that Danny Garcia was in rounds 1 through 6. Garcia lost the fight to Thurman by giving those rounds away instead of turning them into a pure war, which Thurman doesn’t like.

– Throw lots of body shots in the early rounds to wear Thurman down.

– Don’t chase Thurman around the ring. Thurman wants his opponents to chase him, because he stops and hits them with a left hook. It’s better for Spence to let Thurman run. Eventually, he’ll have to stop, and come forward. When Thurman does decide to stop running, Spence needs to hit him with jabs and body shots. If Thurman wants to run away each time, it’s on him. He’s the one that will wear himself out with his running.

– Thurman can’t take body shots well at all. We’ve seen him hurt in the past by Luis Collazo with body shots. If Collazo had continued to hit Thurman to the body, he would have knocked him out for sure.

“I can knock him out, yeah,” said Spence about Thurman. “If I hit him [with a big shot, he’ll get knocked out. Keith Thurman, he’s been knocked out in the amateurs before. I’ve never been knocked out,” said Spence.

I believe that Spence will knock Thurman out. Spence just needs to make sure he doesn’t let Thurman rest for a moment in the fight. Spence has got to be in front of Thurman at all times. That doesn’t mean that Spence should be chasing Thurman the way that Porter did. It just means he’s got to follow him slowly. It’s easier to go forward than it is backwards. Thurman’s reluctance to stand his ground against Spence will lead to him losing the fight.