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Before getting into the qualifiers, let's spend a little time on the schools that will be in the running but ultimately didn't have enough to earn a spot in the semifinals.

Baylor (11-1)

As coach Art Briles has said, per Bill Bender of the Sporting News, "If you can go undefeated in our league, you'll be in the College Football Playoffs." Yet the Bears won't manage that feat because of a late-November loss at TCU, which will come after a 10-0 start and combined with an awfully weak nonconference slate will cause them to narrowly miss out on the playoffs yet again.

Clemson (11-2)

For several years, Clemson has been the ACC's bridesmaid, losing to Florida State during regular-season play and (by virtue of being in the same division) unable to win the conference title or even get a shot at playing for it. That will change this season, as the Tigers will knock off the Seminoles and also claim the ACC crown, but losses elsewhere will knock them out of the playoff race.

Georgia (11-2)

Another year, another roster with overflowing talent, yet also another season with some surprising slip-ups along the way. Put it all together, and Georgia will have a good year but not good enough to make the semifinals. The Bulldogs will win the SEC East Division but lose in the conference title game and have to settle for playing in the Peach Bowl.

Michigan State (11-1)

The Spartans get a revenge game at home against Oregon early in the season and then get to take on defending national champion Ohio State late in the year. A big win in the former will boost Michigan State's playoff chances early on. But losing at the Buckeyes in November will not only keep it from playing for a Big Ten title; it will prevent MSU from getting a chance at a resume-boosting 13th game.