Donald Trump's pitch for black votes is that the condition of African-Americans is terrible, and after decades of being failed by Democratic policies they have nothing to lose by turning to him.

Studies suggest that black people themselves do not share this view. But the latest FBI crime numbers, out last week, show that the Republican presidential nominee has a strong point about law and order. In more capable hands, the black community might find it appealing, even compelling.

For decades, African-Americans have been vastly more likely than others to be the victims of crime. One indication of this is in the FBI's uniform crime reports, which reveal the race of almost every murder victim every year.

With the latest figures, it is clear that the disproportionate victimization of blacks has recently become sharply worse. It stands at its highest point for at least the last 20 years, having deteriorated dramatically over the last eight years. As the graphic above this editorial shows, the gap between black and white has been getting worse and worse ever since President Obama was sworn into office in 2009.



The data suggest that even as whites enjoy the benefits of improved public safety from the last two decades, blacks cannot do so in anything like the same way. In 2015, there was an overall 13 percent uptick in the murder tally compared to 2014, all of it concentrated in cities and neighborhoods where large numbers of black people live. Murder rose by more than 50 percent in Washington, D.C., and by 63 percent in Baltimore, which alone account for about 15 percent of the national increase.

Black victims accounted for nearly two-thirds of the year-over-year increase, which translates to 944 additional black people murdered out of just under 1,500 additional victims nationwide. More than half of this increase (about 811 additional murders) came just from among blacks aged 17 to 39.

Whatever the cause of last year's increase in murders, blacks were the only group represented so disproportionately within it. The number of Hispanic murder victims ticked up by 8 percent, about the same as the increase in white victims.

These FBI data should alarm any person of good will who thinks that all black lives matter. They reveal a true and massive problem. The fact that most African-American murder victims were slain by other African-Americans (as most white victims are killed by other whites) should not lessen the appeal within the black community of a strong law and order message from political candidates. They would, after all, be the chief beneficiaries of strong law and order policies to precisely the same extent that they are currently the chief victims of rising violent crime.

Improved safety among white people statistically masks the greater and greater danger that black citizens face. Black voters should demand law and order, for it would tangibly improve the quality of their lives. This is a note Republicans need to take down and act on — whether they have the chance to do so in January 2017, or have to wait until further in the future.