The Dodgers Are Two Trades Away From a Title

With the halfway point in the MLB season and the trade deadline quickly approaching, it’s time to start thinking about October.

Cody Bellinger has posted an incredible .4221 OFEF as a rookie (photo courtesy of ESPN.com)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won sixteen of their last eighteen games.

Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been pitching quite like Clayton Kershaw, but he’s still the best pitcher in the MLB. Corey Seager continues to be a leader on a young Dodger team and looks to avoid a DL stint after having cramps in his hamstring. Justin Turner returned from the DL by crushing a homer in his first at-bat back and finds himself hitting near the elusive .400 mark. Chris Taylor has come out of nowhere and has been stellar offensively and defensively. And, of course, rookie phenom Cody Bellinger should already have the NL Rookie of the Year award locked up in his trophy case. Someone needs to remind him to leave space in there since an MVP trophy could be heading his way very soon as well.

This team is good. It’s really good. But, at the end of the day, only one team will emerge as champions. As of right now, the Dodgers aren’t far off from having a roster capable of winning the World Series. If the Dodgers acquire an efficient bat and several strong arms at the trade deadline, they may finally have the pieces to solve their puzzle of bringing home a title to Los Angeles for the first time since 1988.

The Dodgers offense has been very productive this season. If the playoffs started tomorrow, Dave Roberts, who is known to drastically shake up the batting order, would ideally field a lineup card that looks something like this:

1. Chris Taylor, LF, R

2. Corey Seager, SS, L

3. Justin Turner, 3B, R

4. Cody Bellinger, 1B, L

5. Yasmani Grandal, C, S

6. Joc Pederson, CF, L

7. Yasiel Puig, RF, R

8. Chase Utley, 2B, L

9. Pitcher

This lineup is pretty solid top to bottom, and considering the bench could consist of Adrian Gonzalez, Logan Forsythe, Kiké Hernandez, Austin Barnes, and Andre Ethier, one can’t ask for much better. It should be noted that Gonzalez and Ethier are both on the DL and their return dates are very much up in the air. Gonzalez has even hinted at retirement if his back does not recover.

Considering the run production (or should I say, explosion) the Dodgers have had on offense of late, one may find it difficult to poke holes in this lineup. However, after taking a closer look, major question marks remain:

Will Adrian Gonzalez get healthy and start in the lineup if he returns? Will Chris Taylor keep up his impressive hitting and, if so, what will the Dodgers do with a struggling Logan Forsythe? Will Yasiel Puig continue to put up the numbers he has been putting up so far this season? Is Joc Pederson the next Adam Dunn? Or, will he get his average up? Will Yasmani Grandal hit consistently at the plate?

In order to assess the Dodgers offensive production thus far, it was initially difficult to rely strictly on the team’s average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. After significant analysis and tests, I have developed a new statistical formula to analyze the current Dodger lineup to find any potential issues moving forward. The statistic, called “Offensive Efficiency” (OFEF), was created to take the full body of work on offense for an individual player in order to prove how efficient they are over the course of the season. The formula for OFEF consists of all controllable statistics for players. To calculate OFEF:

OFEF Formula

To prove that the formula made sense, let’s test it out by comparing the 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies to the 2016 Dodgers playoff team that came up just short against the Cubs. The formula revealed that the Phillies lineup averaged an OFEF of .345 while the Dodgers lineup averaged a .307 OFEF (.325 — .350 is the goal average OFEF to have a successful lineup capable of winning a championship). Therefore, the Philadelphia Phillies starting lineup was 38 points more efficient on average than the Dodger lineup.

Rates of Offensive Efficiency (OFEF)

To further test out the formula, the last 6 offensive seasons for Adrian Gonzalez were analyzed, starting from the year the Dodgers acquired him in 2012.

Adrian Gonzalez was acquired by the Dodgers in 2012

After having extremely efficient offensive numbers from 2012 through 2015 (.336, .343, .350, and .364 respectively), Gonzalez’s numbers significantly dropped 69 points to .295 OFEF in 2016 and another 92 points to an extremely inefficient .203 for the start of the 2017 season. If .350 is the target OFEF, Gonzalez is now 147 points off from what is desired for a playoff team; despite the fact he hasn’t been healthy, Gonzalez has been extremely inefficient hitting in the Dodger lineup in 2017.

After assessing the desired Dodger starting lineup through the offensive efficiency formula, four of the eight starters posted impressive efficiency numbers at .300 or higher: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Yasiel Puig.

The current Dodger OFEF table is organized by starting lineup, bench, and minor leaguers

Chris Taylor finds himself right at the cutoff of having Average Efficiency numbers, as he had been significantly efficient before his slump. On the flipside, Joc Pederson, who had been on the DL several times this season, had posted an OFEF barely over .200 before going on a tear coming off the DL, and his efficiency numbers have significantly improved. Despite his consistent power numbers, Pederson’s career OFEF has significantly dropped season to season since his rookie year. At the age of 26 and playing in his third MLB season, Pederson’s value has slightly diminished due to his inability to hit for a high average.

The other two players listed to have been less efficient offensively: Yasmani Grandal and Logan Forsythe. Grandal, who was on a tear in May, has seen his numbers and his OFEF drop significantly, and he is currently classified as Inefficient on offense. Logan Forsythe, who some may argue should not even be considered a starter anymore, has posted disappointing numbers since he returned from the DL, classifying him as an Extremely Inefficient offensive player.

The Dodger bench has actually posted impressive efficiency numbers, with Kiké Hernandez and Chase Utley posting numbers in the Desired Efficiency level, and Austin Barnes producing numbers in the Above Desired Efficiency category. For the rest of the bench, Franklin Gutierrez had posted extremely inefficient numbers before recently being placed on the DL and Mike Freeman has the least efficient numbers on the team despite his recent call-up. It should be noted that the minor league numbers of potential call-ups Alex Verdugo and Willie Calhoun are listed, and the numbers are astounding. If they can manage to produce at the Major League level, we may not even need to discuss trades to improve offensive efficiency.

So, how does one make sense of these numbers and define what the Dodgers must do offensively to put out a product that will win their first World Series since 1988? After analyzing players on potential selling with favorable contract situations and excellent OFEF numbers, it is apparent that the Dodgers should acquire a right-handed hitter who can play at either second base or in left field while hitting in the middle of the batting order. Ultimately, the Dodgers need a bat that can lead them to the magic .350 OFEF.

After running tests on the players fitting this general need from potential selling teams in divisions outside of the NL West (Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, White Sox, Rangers, Athletics, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Reds, Pirates), the players with the most beneficial contract situation and excellence in OFEF were 26-year-old Marcell Ozuna and 29-year-old J.D. Martinez.

Potential trade targets for the Dodgers

As shown above, players such as Ryan Braun, Yoenis Cespedes, and Manny Machado who have little-to-no chance of being traded, were included in the test since they make possible trade sense if their respective teams shifted toward sellers and received incredible returns in the deals (yes, Manny Machado may never be traded). Players such as Zach Cozart, Andrew McCutchen, Ian Kinsler, and Lorenzo Cain all featured above desired OFEF’s; however, all of them are 30 years of age or older. Josh Harrison is a potentially desirable player at 29 years of age, however, his contract lasts through the 2020 season. One may notice first-basemen Eric Hosmer, Jose Abreu, and Yonder Alonso cracked the list. This is simply because there is trade potential there, and if the Dodgers were willing to move Bellinger back into the outfield, then a move for one of these three makes sense (preferably Abreu since he is a righty hitter). Players such as Adam Duvall, Adam Jones, and Jose Bautista have all produced below the desired OFEF, something to consider when comparing other trade targets. Jay Bruce and Christian Yelich round out the group as the only two trade targets that are left-handed hitting outfielders. Many may be surprised by the numbers by Yelich; this can directly be attributed to his lack in the total number of bases he has acquired over the season thus far.

The current Dodger starting lineup features an overall OFEF average of .3208, making them only 292 points shy of matching the 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies lineup. If the Dodgers seek out to acquire one more bat that can produce above the desired offensive efficiency, this team may have themselves a championship lineup. I love Marcell Ozuna as a fit for the Dodgers. He hits for power, average, pounds lefty pitching, and would be under team control through 2019.

Proposed Trade:

Dodgers Receive: Marcell Ozuna

Marlins Receive: Brock Stewart, Mitchell White, Trevor Oaks, and Starling Heredia

Proposed Lineup Post-Trade:

1. Chris Taylor, 2B, R

2. Corey Seager, SS, L

3. Justin Turner, 3B, R

4. Cody Bellinger, 1B, L

5. Marcell Ozuna, LF, R

6. Joc Pederson, CF, L

7. Yasiel Puig, RF, R

8. Yasmani Grandal, C, S

Post-Trade OFEF Average: .3561 = Above Desired Efficiency; improvement of 353 points

With a balanced lineup that can produce offensively against righty and lefty pitching, the last two moves the Dodgers need to make should address the starting rotation and the bullpen. Yes, the Dodgers have a ton of starting pitchers. However, they only have one, maybe two, reliable starting pitchers in Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood. Taking a look at the rest of the rotation, one could classify it as one of the most banged-up rotations in the league. Rich Hill has been dealing with his aggravating blister since he was acquired from the Athletics.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has finally taken the hill this year, but his injury history cannot be trusted come October. Brandon McCarthy had been pitching so well up until his start Sunday against the Rockies, and now he finds himself back on the DL. Kenta Maeda has actually looked pretty good in the bullpen; it might not be a bad idea to keep him there. Even Alex Wood, who has pitched so well this season, has been on the DL this year. The starting rotation is not durable and cannot be trusted.

To put it simply, even with Alex Wood pitching incredibly well, the Dodgers need a #2 starter, something they truly haven’t had since Zach Greinke left for Arizona. Unfortunately, the market for pitching is not extremely impressive. However, after compiling the potential sellers at the deadline, the Dodgers have a chance to find their guy.

The green highlights indicate the top two statistics of the listed starters and listed relievers

If the Rangers or Rays start to lose games (and Dodger fans should root for such to happen), then Yu Darvish or Chris Archer would be the easy answer to the Dodgers rotation needs. Both teams would ask for an arm and a leg for their pitchers, but the Dodgers have what it takes to get a deal done. However, assuming both teams aren’t willing to sell, a name that just recently hit the forefront of trade rumors, Jacob deGrom, is the man the Dodgers must acquire. Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, and Jose Quintana, the other potential trade targets, are just as untrustworthy as the guys in the current Dodgers rotation. Just as we saw with the Dodgers trading Jose de Leon for Logan Forsythe, it doesn’t make sense to trade a valuable piece for an average player. Jacob deGrom is no average player. In his last three starts against the Cubs, Nationals, and Giants respectively, deGrom has pitched 25 innings while allowing only two runs and striking out 19 in the process. With the Mets showing no signs of turning their season around, the thought of trading deGrom has been tossed around. He is set for arbitration this offseason, and New York could receive a huge haul for him to start the rebuild process early. New York would ask for multiple major-league ready players but, once again, the Dodgers have the pieces to get a trade done.

In addition to the starting rotation, the Dodgers need a guy that can hand the ball off to Kenley Jansen. Though the Dodgers rank first in the National League in bullpen ERA, most of those numbers can be attributed to the outstanding job Jansen has done at closing out games. Jansen has proven to have the ability to get four-out saves, but the Dodgers could do their closer a favor by not having to get him into trouble in the first place. Lucky for teams in need of bullpen help, there are a lot of great options in the open market. The Dodgers ideally would look for a left-handed pitcher, and a move for a player such as Mike Minor or Tommy Kahnle to knock down the 7th inning would be great. However, trading for Philadelphia Phillies lefty Pat Neshek or the division-rival San Diego Padres lefty Brad Hand would not be a bad move for a guy that could pitch in the 8th. A dream scenario would be to acquire Pittsburgh Pirates stud lefty Felipe Rivero, who came over from the Nationals, a team now finding themselves in desperate need of bullpen help. If the Orioles falter, Brad Brach is a great righty piece to shut down the 8th inning. However, if the Dodgers are looking to acquire deGrom in a deal, they might as well address their other need in the trade by acquiring lefty Jerry Blevins or current closer Addison Reed. I like them both; time to bring the Blockbuster back.

Proposed Trade:

Dodgers Receive: Jacob deGrom, Jerry Blevins, and Addison Reed

Mets Receive: Yusniel Diaz, Walker Buehler, Jordan Sheffield, Grant Dayton, Scott Van Slyke

Proposed Rotation Post-Trade:

1. Clayton Kershaw

2. Jacob deGrom

3. Alex Wood

4. Brandon McCarthy

5. Rich Hill / Hyun-Jin Ryu

Proposed Bullpen Post-Trade:

Closer: Kenley Jansen

Set-Up: Addison Reed

Left-Handed Specialist: Jerry Blevins

Middle Reliever: Pedro Baez

Middle Reliever: Luis Avilan

Middle Reliever: Brandon Morrow

Middle Reliever: Sergio Romo / Josh Fields

Spot Starter/Long Reliever: Kenta Maeda

If the Dodgers netted Marcell Ozuna, Jacob deGrom, Jerry Blevins, and Addison Reed without having to trade prized prospects Willie Calhoun, Alex Verdugo, or Yadier Alvarez, that would be a victory in itself. Teams will certainly ask about them, and they may make them a must in order to dish off their valuable assets.

Regardless of what takes place between now and the deadline on July 31st, the Dodgers still look like a playoff team. If the Dodgers address their needs by trading for an offensively efficient hitter, a #2 starter, and a couple reliable relievers, then come October, the Los Angeles Dodgers may find themselves celebrating like it’s 1988 once again.

*All statistics as of 2:00 PM CT on Tuesday, June 27th