Which tendency is going to prevail? In 2016, most of us pundits thought the educated-class Republicans would prevail over the angry populists. That’s because we in the pundit class were more familiar with college-educated Republicans. We underestimated how hollow and intellectually spent the Republican establishment had become, and we didn’t understand the depth of populist alienation.

In 2020, if you live on the coasts, follow politics intensely and hang around college-educated people, it’s easy to think that the disruptive Democratic forces have the upper hand. If AOC shows up on your Twitter feed every 30 seconds, then you were probably surprised by the giant lead Biden has established since announcing his candidacy. Seemingly nobody on Twitter supports Biden.

If you live in these circles, it’s worth remembering that a majority of Democrats are over 50. In a recent Gallup survey, a majority of Democrats said the party would be better off moving to the center than to the left.

In short, don’t underestimate the Democratic rank and file.

The crucial voters in this primary election could turn out to be African-Americans. Right now, Biden is dominant among these voters. In a field of more than 20 candidates, 50 percent of nonwhite voters support Biden. Some of these voters like Biden’s longstanding loyalty to the party and its causes; some like his partnership with Obama; some are members of what you might call the Disillusion Caucus. They believe that given the racism and sexism endemic in American society you’ve got to nominate a white man if you want your party to win.

If these voters stay where they are, it will be hard for a disrupter to win. So far white progressives have done a poor job of wooing minority support or even marching in step with minority voters. They talk a lot about social justice but don’t support the candidates that minority voters actually support. Highly educated coastal progressives live privileged, affluent lives but define their identity as allies of the oppressed. This privileged pose involves all sorts of psychological contortions that don’t resonate with a lot of rank-and-file voters.

It will be interesting to see if any other candidates — Kamala Harris? Cory Booker? — can manage to span these two camps. Pete Buttigieg would seem to be an option, but his support so far is massively from the college-educated. Right now, Biden is in a strong position — offering progressive policies to a party that is exhausted and doesn’t want permanent revolution.

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