Biggest lead over Jeremy Hunt is regarding Brexit, with 69% saying Johnson can get UK out by 31 October

Tory voters now back Boris Johnson over Jeremy Hunt to be the next Conservative party leader and prime minister by a margin of almost two to one, according to a new Opinium/Observer poll.

Poll suggests Boris Johnson is far ahead in the Tory leadership race Read more

Some 53% of those questioned, and who voted Conservative at the 2017 general election, say they would cast a vote for Johnson, against 29% who would choose Hunt.

Johnson is seen as the best choice for prime minister by 47% of Tory supporters, against 25% for Hunt, and as most likely to beat Jeremy Corbyn at the next election by 61% compared with 19% who choose Hunt.

The survey confirms Johnson as the hot favourite to succeed Theresa May when the result of the ballot now taking place among 160,000 Tory party members is announced on 22 July.

More Conservative supporters now have a better impression of Johnson than they did at the start of the start of the hustings (33%) than feel more negatively about him (21%). Some 34% said they felt more positive about Hunt than at the end of June, against 22% who felt more negatively.

Johnson’s biggest lead is on the issue of Brexit, with 69% believing he would be most likely to take the UK out of the EU by 31 October, against just 11% who say Hunt would be likely to do so.

Writing on theguardian.com, James Crouch and Jack Tadman, research managers at Opinium, said the poll suggested Hunt had failed to make the progress needed in the campaign.

“As we enter the final weeks of the leadership race,” they write, “Mr Hunt has failed to close the gap and exploit the perceived ‘chaotic’ start to the Johnson campaign.” Some 43% say Johnson can be trusted to make big decisions against 27% who say Hunt can.