Matthew Albright

The News Journal

Delaware's political universe is now focused on Middletown, Glasgow and southern Newark.

Voters from those areas will determine in a special election Feb. 25 whether Republicans regain control of the Delaware Senate for the first time in 44 years.

Former Sen. Bethany Hall-Long vacated the 10th District seat when she was inaugurated lieutenant governor last month.

Democrat Stephanie Hansen and Republican John Marino have since walked the district to convince voters they are the best suited to add good jobs, improve schools and be an effective advocate in Dover.

Yet the gravity of this race transcends the debate over local issues.

Democrats say Hansen would defend Delaware against the intrusion of Washington-style, hyper-partisan gridlock. This is their first electoral opportunity to fight the rise of President Donald Trump, whose first weeks in office, they say, have outraged and sickened them.

"This is a rocket ship," said Hansen, an environmental attorney and former New Castle County Council president. "I have never seen this much energy and attention to a local race, and I have been involved in campaigns since 1992. There's a large segment of the population that is energized now because they saw what happened in November, and they want to go out and make their voice heard."

Republicans see John Marino's candidacy as a chance to tame a state government they believe spends too much taxpayer money and meddles too much with small businesses. They have chafed under years of Democratic control, and they relish this shot at power.

"The reality is this: We have an opportunity right now, in this race, to bring change to our Legislature," said Marino, a real estate agent who's worked in New Castle County for more than 20 years after serving 10 years as a New York City police officer. "Delaware has a lot of problems. People want change, and if you vote for me, you are voting for immediate change."

Money and volunteers are pouring into the crucial contest.

Hansen spent $64,339 between Jan. 1 and Jan. 26, and still had $63,730 left in the bank. In the same period, Marino spent $30,766 and had $67,964 left in his war chest.

Both candidates have small armies of supporters who are placing signs, making calls and knocking on doors.

"In today's political climate, we need somebody like Stephanie," said Steven Byers, a teacher who lives in the district and has been campaigning for Hansen. "She came across as a candidate who not only would listen to us, but would speak to the interests of all Delawareans."

Drew Young made sure to keep his Marino sign in front of his home north of Middletown upright and clear through Thursday's snow flurries.

"I've been saying for a long time, the problem with this state is that the Democrats run everything," Young said. "They don't have to listen to the people. We've gotta change that."

Reshaping state politics

When Hall-Long vacated the 10th District seat she left 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans in the Senate.

The implications of that balance of power became clear last month. For the first time in recent memory, the Senate blocked a governor's cabinet nominee, with Republicans halting confirmation of Shawn Garvin, Gov. John Carney's pick to lead the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control.

If Marino wins and Republicans seize the Senate, Democrats could no longer count on passing legislation without Republican votes. They would also be forced to consider GOP ideas they have long kept off the table, such as "right to work" laws.

Right to work is political shorthand for laws that make it optional for employees to join a union. Republicans argue that would entice more businesses to locate in Delaware and create jobs, but Democrats say it would hurt wages by weakening collective bargaining.

The fight over right to work is a key issue in this month's campaign.

Hansen contends right to work laws should be called the "right to work for less." Many union members, like Byers, have lined up behind Hansen.

"Not just for teachers and public employees, but anyone in a labor union, that's a major issue that we don't want on the table," Byers said. "It is something that would be very bad for workers."

Marino said the policy is being misrepresented.

"Right to work is not anti-union," he said. "We need to bring jobs back to Delaware, and this is one thing that would encourage them."

Should Marino win, Democratic efforts would be tougher to implement. A bill to increase the minimum wage to $10.25, already on thin ice, would have virtually no chance of passage.

Hansen wants the minimum wage increased, though she doesn't have an exact figure in mind.

"With the current minimum wage in place, even someone working 40 hours a week could qualify for government benefits," Hansen said. "That is costing us as a society."

Marino opposes an increase in the minimum wage.

"Our politicians have created a false narrative that they're trying to help the little guy, just to get votes," he said. "The reality is we need to fix the overall economy. The minimum wage is going to be more damaging for businesses, and more jobs will be lost."

Right to work and minimum wage are two issues on which the candidates disagree most fiercely and publicly. Another is abortion — Hansen is pro-choice, Marino is pro-life.

On many other issues, the candidates share similar views, reflecting the ideologically diverse and moderate population of their district.

Both describe themselves as fiscal conservatives who want to see the state focus on making government run more efficiently. Neither say they want taxes raised. Both approve of the decriminalization of marijuana but are hesitant to legalize marijuana, saying the state should see how things play out in other states that have taken that step.

Hansen and Marino share the view that the General Assembly should not reinstate the death penalty after the state Supreme Court ruled the current form of the punishment unconstitutional.

On education, both say there should be less state-level bureaucracy and more authority for local school leaders. And they agree that parents should be able to "opt out" of standardized testing.

Aside from votes on policy, a Marino win would give Republicans access to several important procedural levers of power.

A GOP majority would allow them to pick a new Senate President Pro Tempore, who hands out committee assignments and schedules when bills are heard. They would pull even with Democrats on the budget-writing Joint Finance Committee, potentially pushing the state towards deeper spending cuts.

Republicans argue these changes would be a good thing for Delaware.

"The system as it exists today, there are no checks and balances," said Senate Minority Leader Gary Simpson. "We are not saying that we want to act like we run the place, but there would be a need to compromise, and I think that is a healthy thing for our state."

For example, Simpson said Republicans might consider "right to work zones" that would be limited to a few economically challenged areas, not simply implementing the policy statewide.

Democrats fear a Republican Senate would lead to partisan dysfunction, not compromise. They use the fight over Garvin's nomination as an example.

"We've already got a glimpse of what we're going to see if Mr. Marino is in office," Hansen said. "It's going to be gridlock, exactly as it was in Washington. Delaware doesn't deserve that."

Democrats' defense of Delaware comes as their party loses ground nationwide.

Not only do Republicans control the White House and Congress, they hold the legislative and executive branches of 24 states. Even if Democrats hold onto the Delaware Senate, they'll have total control of only six state governments around the country.

There is a third choice in the race — Joseph Lanzendorfer, who is running as a Libertarian. Third-party candidates have no history of winning in Delaware, but if he pulls off the upset it would lead to the most unusual outcome of all — a Senate with 10 Democrats, 10 Republicans and one Libertarian.

"My presence in the Senate alone would create the best of both worlds and better legislation for all," he said during a candidates' debate.

Perhaps the biggest issue on which Lanzendorfer differs from his major-party opponents is marijuana. He wants to fully legalize the drug, tax the proceeds, and funnel the revenue to schools.

Big outcome, small turnout

Turnout is typically small in special elections because they do not occur alongside more high-profile races like president, governor or Congress.

Rep. David Bentz, D-Newark, was elected in Sept. 2015 with 894 votes; only 1,577 people voted in total. By contrast, Bentz got 7,348 votes in last year's general election, even though he did not have an opponent.

Only 4,534 people voted in the 2009 special election for the 37th representative district. A year earlier in the general election there were 10,758 votes cast for the same seat.

There were 6,884 votes cast In the 2009 special election for the 19th Senate district. A year later, 10,554 voted.

In low-turnout elections, campaigns usually focus on energizing their own party, rather than attempting to convince swing voters.

"It's almost like a primary election," said Paul Brewer, research director at the Center for Political Communication at the University of Delaware. "You want to target the voters who are reliably for your party and make sure they get to the polls."

Could the unusual stakes in this election drive up turnout? Not likely, Brewer said.

"It's very motivating for the people who are already attentive to politics," Brewer said. "But if you talked to the average person on the street, my guess is you wouldn't find a whole lot of people who are really clued in."

Martin O'Malley, the former Maryland governor and Baltimore mayor who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for president, campaigned for Hansen on Saturday.

David Woodside is a Middletown resident who has been active in Democratic politics for 30-something years. He thinks events like the Women's March, anti-Trump protests that took place in Newark and all over the country, have fired up his party's voters.

"When there's high turnout, we win," Woodside said. "And when you look at everything that's going on, I think it's pretty clear that people are paying attention."

Republican voters also say they are fired up.

"People say this district is Democrat, but I know the people in this district and they don't want anymore taxes," said Young. "That's what we're gonna get if we let the Democrats keep doing what they're doing."

Democrats have a decided registration advantage. There are 16,165 Democrats, 10,113 Republicans, and 9,395 voters of neither party.

But that's no guarantee. Former Senate Pro Tempore Patricia Blevins lost in November to now-Sen. Anthony Delcollo, despite a two-to-one registration advantage.

Hansen argues the advantage is smaller than it looks. There is a band of progressive voters in Newark and a core of conservative residents in the southern reaches of the district. But most voters in the middle of the district are moderate and lean fiscally conservative, she argues.

"We are taking nothing for granted," Hansen said.

Contact Matthew Albright at malbright@delawareonline.com, (302) 324-2428 or on Twitter @TNJ_malbright.

Meet the candidates

Stephanie Hansen

Party: Democrat

Occupation: Environmental attorney, Young, Conaway, Stargatt and Taylor

Political experience: Founded the Bear-Glasgow Council of Civic Organizations. Served as New Castle County Council President from 1996-2000. Veteran of 24 campaigns

Issues

Minimum wage increase: Supports. "I don’t have a number in mind. But with the current minimum wage in place, even someone working 40 hours a week qualifies for government benefits. It’s still costing us as a society."

Right-to-work laws: Opposes. "I call it 'right to work for less.'"

Marijuana legalization: Opposes, for now. "I think we’re on the right track, but before full legalization, I want to make sure we have a handle on determining when somebody is too impaired to drive and to work."

Death penalty: Opposes. "I think our Supreme Court has spoken, and we should let the issue stay as it has been decided."

Changing the Coastal Zone Act: Companies should be allowed to build on abandoned sites if they pay for cleanup. "We need to have a proposal on the table in front of us, though. A blanket change to the Coastal Zone Act that says 'maybe this might work' is bad for our environment."

State budget: Focus on inefficiencies and spending. "My first year on [county council], we had a $100 million budget deficit. We didn't fix it by raising a bunch of taxes, we fixed it by reorganizing departments and running more efficiently."

John Marino

Party: Republican

Occupation: Realtor, president of J & J Homes, LLC. Retired New York Police officer.

Political experience: Previously ran for Senate and House. Both times, won 49 percent of the vote.

Issues

Minimum wage increase: Opposes. "The reality is we need to fix the overall economy. The minimum wage is going to be more damaging for businesses, and more jobs will be lost."

Right to work laws: Supports. "We need to bring jobs back to Delaware, and this is one thing that would encourage them."

Marijuana legalization: Opposes. "There's not enough evidence out there for me to say I would support that." Supported decriminalization and medical marijuana.

Death penalty: Opposes "I believe firmly that the bigger punishment is to put somebody in the prison system without parole for the remainder of life."

Coastal Zone Act: Need to be open to changes. "We can absolutely protect the environment and create jobs at the same time."

State budget: "We have to get spending under control. If there are programs that are not successful, we need to start eliminating them. We're not doing that enough."