by Vince Verhei

Late in the third quarter against Sunday's game against Arizona, with his offense getting shut out and his fanbase begging for a change, New York Jets coach Rex Ryan decided he'd seen enough of quarterback Mark Sanchez for the day, and sat him down in favor of second-year passer Greg McElroy. McElroy proceeded to do just enough to beat a Cardinals team whose own offensive performance was bordering on catastrophic. After the game, Ryan refused to name a starter for next week's meeting against Jacksonville, leaving Sanchez and McElroy, plus the entire fanbase, in limbo. Really, though, it doesn't matter who starts against the Jaguars. After four years of the Mark Sanchez era in New York, it's fair to say that he's never going to develop into the next great Jets passer. However, it's just as fair to say that McElroy won't be that man, either.

It's plain that Sanchez hasn't grown like the Jets had hoped he would, and even more clear when we look at his career numbers. The following table shows Sanchez's rate statistics for each season of his career. Completion percentage and yards per pass attempt are self-explanatory and fairly common. "TD%" and "INT%" are simply touchdowns and interceptions as a percentage of all pass attempts, while "Sck%" is the percentage of all dropbacks (pass attempts plus sacks) that see the quarterback hit the ground. The next column shows ESPN's Total QBR. Finally, we have DVOA, Football Outsiders' exclusive metric that analyzes every play of the NFL season and adjusts it for down, distance, field position, score, quality of opponent and other factors. (More information on DVOA is available here.) If Sanchez has progressed much during his career, it's hard to see it in these numbers:

Mark Sanchez, year-by-year Year G Comp% Yds/Pass TD% INT% Sck% QBR DVOA 2009 15 53.8% 6.71 3.3% 5.5% 6.7% 31.6 -26.6% 2010 16 54.8% 6.49 3.4% 2.6% 5.1% 48.0 -4.3% 2011 16 56.7% 6.40 4.8% 3.3% 6.7% 33.6 -12.5% 2012 12 55.0% 6.57 3.2% 3.5% 7.3% 28.4 -17.6%

Aside from some fluctuations in touchdowns and interceptions, what we have here is a series of consistently unimpressive numbers. DVOA shows that while Sanchez showed plenty of improvement between his first and second seasons, he was never as valuable as a league-average quarterback, and he's declined now for two straight seasons. QBR tells a similar story. Sanchez hasn't just stagnated, he has gotten worse.

Could anyone have expected Sanchez to crash and burn like this? Well, yes. I did. I'm not right all the time (two weeks ago I wrote that the Cowboys were good enough to make a playoff run, and they've since lost at home to Washington and needed an onside kick recovery to hold off Philadelphia), but this piece I wrote four years ago comparing Sanchez unfavorably to JaMarcus Russell has proven somewhat accurate. That column wasn't very popular among Jets fans, and they let me know about it loud and clear. I don't hear from them much anymore though. They're far too busy booing Sanchez to worry about booing me.

Regardless, we've all seen enough of Sanchez now to form our own opinions, but the jury is out on McElroy. Is there reason to believe he can be a star in the NFL? At Football Outsiders, we like to use college numbers to forecast quarterbacks' success in the NFL, and on the surface McElroy's numbers are good to excellent. He started two seasons at Alabama, leading the SEC in completion percentage in 2010, and improving in NCAA passer rating as a senior. However, we also use scouting data in our forecasts, and the scouts saw little in McElroy to get excited about. We usually write off quarterbacks who aren't drafted in the first three rounds, and the Jets didn't take McElroy until the seventh round in 2011. He was the 208th player selected, which means every team passed on him several times -- including the Jets, who picked up Muhammad Wilkerson, Kenrick Ellis, Bilal Powell, and Jeremy Kerley before they grabbed McElroy.

ESPN's pre-draft scouting report on McElroy gave him the highest possible grade in "toughness/leadership," but emphasized the quarterback's physical limitations. It said he had "below average arm strength," that his deep ball "tends to sail," and that he would not be able to "drive the ball vertically in the NFL, especially in windy conditions." It has been known to get windy in the Meadowlands from time to time.

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McElroy's performance against Arizona fit well with that scouting report. Yes, he completed 5-of-7 passes with one touchdown and no sacks or interceptions, but he gained only 29 yards. His average completion came just 5.8 yards past the line of scrimmage. Of course, that's only seven passes, hardly a solid sample size. We also have two years of preseason data, though, and those numbers tell a similar story. McElroy has gone 52-of-82 for 474 yards in the preseason. That's a solid completion rate of 63.4%, but a paltry 9.1 yards per completion and 5.8 yards per pass. No quarterback this season is picking up real estate in chunks that small.

In four seasons, Sanchez has yet to show any sign of exceptional passing talent. There's little reason to believe that McElroy will do any better. Whoever the Jets' next great passer is, he's probably not on the roster right now.

(Of course, the Jets have a third option at quarterback, but discussing his potential would require a column unto itself, and until further notice that quarterback is sidelined with a rib injury anyway. However, in the name of blatantly generating cheap pageviews, let me say this: Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow.)

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Russell Wilson SEA 23/37 296 2 0 235 203 32 Fair warning: There's a good chance this is going to be the longest player comment in the history of Quick Reads. You may want to go get a drink or something before you get too far into this. Ready? OK, let's start with a few notes about Wilson's splits from Sunday's game. On Seattle's first eight drives, he went 14-of-25 for 178 yards with seven first downs and two sacks. He also had four runs for 24 yards and one first down. On their last two drives, the 97-yard go-ahead touchdown drive in the fourth quarter and the game-winner in overtime, he went 9-of-12 for 118 yards with two touchdowns and four other first downs, and also ran five times for 47 yards and four first downs, including conversions of third-and-2 and third-and-5 in overtime. His last seven passes of the game were all complete, five of them for first downs or touchdowns. He did all this against the Chicago Bears, which regular QR readers will know by now has been by far the league's best passing defense. Wilson became the tenth player this year to throw at least 30 passes against Chicago, but the first to do so without throwing an interception. When you account for opponent adjustments and include rushing data, this wasn't just the most valuable game for a quarterback this week, it was the most valuable game for a rookie quarterback in Football Outsiders' database going back to 1991. On passing numbers alone, though, it wasn't even the best game by a rookie quarterback this year. That honor goes to Andrew Luck for his Week 9 performance against Miami. Brandon Weeden also makes the list for what he did against Cincinnati in Week 2. Meanwhile, Washington's Robert Griffin had a game against New Orleans in Week 1 (320 yards passing in only 26 attempts) that would have made this list, but in the months since we've come to realize how lousy the Saints defense is, and as a result that game is now worth 115 DYAR, which is still the best of his short career. Ryan Tannehill's best game was a 117-DYAR performance in Week 4 when he burned Arizona for 431 yards. Here's a look at the top 15 games by rookie quarterbacks since 1991 -- and yes, Ryan Leaf did in fact have one good game during his NFL career (Seattle was the No. 4 pass defense that year).

Top 15 Games by Rookie QBs, 1991-2012 Rk Year Player Team Opp. CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

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DYAR 1. 2012 Russell Wilson SEA CHI 23/37 296 2 0 235 203 32 2. 1999 Cade McNown CHI DET 27/36 301 4 2 211 200 11 3. 2012 Andrew Luck IND MIA 30/48 433 2 0 205 204 1 4. 1999 Jeff Garcia* SF ATL 26/34 373 2 0 202 193 9 5. 1998 Ryan Leaf SD SEA 25/49 281 1 0 188 183 4 6. 2003 Byron Leftwich JAC TB 21/34 226 2 0 184 179 5 7. 2008 Matt Ryan ATL CHI 22/30 301 1 0 177 181 -4 8. 1999 Jeff Garcia* SF CIN 33/47 437 3 1 174 172 2 9. 1998 Peyton Manning IND CIN 17/26 210 3 0 169 169 0 10. 1998 Charlie Batch DET TB 14/23 195 2 0 165 160 5 11. 1994 Heath Shuler WAS ARI 16/27 287 1 1 165 149 16 12. 2012 Brandon Weeden CLE CIN 26/37 322 2 0 164 163 1 13. 1993 Rick Mirer SEA SD 25/40 282 1 0 160 146 14 14. 2004 Eli Manning NYG PIT 16/23 182 2 1 160 152 8 15. 1993 Drew Bledsoe NE MIA 27/43 329 4 1 159 167 -7 * Though technically an NFL rookie, Garcia had five years of experience with the Calgary Stampeders of the Canadian Football League. 2. Tony Romo DAL 23/27 303 3 0 167 176 -9 First three drives: 7-of-10 for 40 yards with three first downs and two sacks. Last five drives: 16-of-17 for 263 yards and 11 first downs, including three touchdowns. He completed every pass he threw after halftime, and his last six completions gained 130 yards and six first downs, including two touchdowns. 3. Aaron Rodgers GB 27/35 286 1 1 134 130 4 On short passes (those thrown within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage), Rodgers went 25-of-28 for 221 yards and 12 first downs. He was especially effective when targeting the short middle area of the field, going 9-of-9 for 88 yards and six first downs. 4. Jay Cutler CHI 17/26 233 2 0 129 114 15 Cutler did most of his damage with midrange passes. On throws to receivers between 6 and 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, he went 5-of-6 for 59 yards and four first downs, including a 12-yard touchdown on third-and-4. 5. Carson Palmer OAK 34/51 351 2 1 115 112 3 First five third-down plays: 2-of-5 for 9 yards and one first down. Last nine third-down plays (including a fourth-and-1): 8-of-8 for 75 yards and eight first downs, with one sack. 6. Brady Quinn KC 19/23 201 2 0 114 118 -4 Given the strange and horrible circumstances surrounding Sunday's game between the Chiefs and Panthers, there's very little meaning or long-term value to be found in Quinn's statistics, or those of anyone else who played in Kansas City this weekend. Our computer knows that Quinn went 19-of-23 for 201 yards, with two touchdowns, no interceptions, and only one sack. It knows he went 6-of-8 for 65 yards inside the Carolina 40, with two touchdowns and two other first downs. It can analyze those plays and calculate their value. It can't tell you anything, though, about the heartache and sorrow Quinn and his teammates are going through. Quinn himself is still struggling to come to grips with those feelings. "I'm just trying to get through the rest of today," he said after the game. "The emotions of what has taken place will probably hit home for a few guys the next few days, when they realize what's taken place." Our prayers and best wishes continue to go out to all those affected by this weekend's tragedy. 7. Eli Manning NYG 21/33 280 1 0 109 107 2 8. Robert Griffin WAS 13/21 163 1 0 102 90 12 9. Cam Newton CAR 15/27 232 3 0 92 69 23 On the one hand, Newton went just 4-of-9 on the Kansas City half of the field. On the other hand, those four completions totaled 85 yards and three touchdowns. He also had two runs on that side of the 50, a 4-yard gain on third-and-7 and a 20-yard gain on second-and-10. 10. Peyton Manning DEN 27/38 242 3 1 80 80 0 On second down, Manning went 9-of-10 for 83 yards. Only four of those plays picked up first downs, but one of them was a touchdown. He also had a pair of 10-yard gains on second-and-11 and second-and-16. 11. Charlie Batch PIT 26/37 280 1 1 79 79 0 On first down, Batch went 9-of-14 for 44 yards with one first down (which came on his last first-down throw), one interception, and one sack. His first seven second-down throws resulted in four completions for 17 yards with no first downs and one interception, but his last seven second-down throws resulted in seven completions for seven first downs (including a touchdown) and 143 yards. 12. Sam Bradford STL 26/38 221 0 0 47 29 18 On San Francisco's half of the field, Bradford went 5-of-9 for 47 yards and only one first down. Keep in mind this game went nearly five full quarters. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Brandon Weeden CLE 25/36 364 1 2 37 43 -6 It was feast or famine for Weeden on deep passes. He went 3-of-7 for 86 yards and a touchdown, but also threw two interceptions. 14. Colin Kaepernick SF 22/32 208 0 0 34 29 5 The botched pitch that was recovered by St. Louis for a touchdown goes down a run for -5 yards and a fumble for Kaepernick, and that certainly drags him down. (It almost exactly negates his brilliant 50-yard scramble later in the fourth quarter.) By the way, wasn't Alex Smith benched partly because Kaepernick has a stronger arm? Kaepernick threw only two deep passes against the Rams, completing one of them for 30 yards. He also threw exactly one pass to the middle of the field, a 5-yard completion. Throwing to his left, he went 13-of-17 for 143 yards and eight first downs. To his right, he went 7-of-13 for 60 yards with three first downs and one intentional grounding. 15. Nick Foles PHI 22/34 251 1 0 30 30 0 Foles' numbers in the middle of the field demonstrate why completion percentage isn't always an accurate indicator of a quarterback's effectiveness. Foles went 6-of-7 between the 40s for 50 yards, but only gained one first down. He also had a midfield sack-fumble. 16. Josh Freeman TB 18/39 242 2 1 28 29 -1 Third downs: 3-of-7 for 29 yards and only one first down. 17. Matt Schaub HOU 21/35 207 2 0 12 10 2 Schaub threw only four passes inside the Jacksonville 40, and that is explained entirely by his performance between the 40s. One of his passes from the MID zone was complete to Lestar Jean for a 54-yard touchdown. (Jean, by the way, has just four catches this year, but he's averaging 30 yards per grab.) Otherwise, he went 3-of-10 for zero yards and no first downs, including six failed third-down plays. 18. Tom Brady NE 24/40 238 1 1 10 8 2 Brady's splits by down are pretty insane. First down: 4-of-15 for 36 yards with no first downs, one interception and two sacks. Second down: 13-of-17 for 128 yards, one touchdown, and nine other first downs, plus DPIs for 4 and 31 yards. Third downs: 7-of-8 for 74 yards, but only four first downs and two sacks. 19. Philip Rivers SD 26/47 280 0 1 3 -5 9 Rivers started out 10-for-10 for 92 yards and four first downs (although there was a sack-fumble in there), but his last four passes, each in the red zone with a chance to tie the game, were all incomplete. His last pass was intercepted, although in DYAR it's considered a Hail Mary and treated like an incomplete pass. 20. Matt Stafford DET 27/46 313 2 1 -3 11 -14 Stafford loses 65 DYAR for playing the woeful Indianapolis defense. He has almost as much to do with Indianapolis' comeback as Andrew Luck did. In the fourth quarter, he went 1-of-6 for 8 yards with a 21-yard DPI, throwing five incompletions in a row at one point, three of them on third down. A conversion on any one of those plays means Luck probably doesn't get enought time to complete his comeback. 21. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 9/17 112 2 1 -4 -11 8 Fitzpatrick's first second-down pass was incomplete. He completed his other six second-down passes for 91 yards (including a 51-yarder) and three first downs, including a 13-yard touchdown. 22. Andrew Luck IND 24/52 391 4 3 -16 -32 16 The two miracle touchdowns got all the attention, but let's not forget that Luck completed less than half his passes and threw three interceptions. First 14 drives: 17-of-38 for 279 yards with two touchdowns, six other first downs, three picks, two sacks, and one fumble. Last two drives: 7-of-14 for 112 yards with two touchdowns and three other first downs. He also had three fourth-quarter scrambles for 33 yards and two more first downs. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

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DYAR 23. Andy Dalton CIN 25/39 211 1 2 -32 -45 13 The bulk of Dalton's day was devoted to throwing ineffective short routes. On passes to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, he went 18-of-25 for 103 yards and only three first downs. His receivers also fumbled twice on those plays, and while that's hardly Dalton's fault, it did make the strategy an even bigger failure. 24. Ryan Tannehill MIA 13/28 186 0 0 -40 -45 6 Inside the New England 40, Tannehill went 4-of-8 for 42 yards with no touchdowns, two first downs, and one sack. 25. Joe Flacco BAL 16/34 188 1 1 -43 -43 0 The Ravens took a 13-6 lead into halftime. After that, Flacco went 5-of-12 for 54 yards with three first downs, three sacks, and one fumble. 26. Matt Ryan ATL 18/33 165 1 0 -55 -55 0 Ryan had only seven first downs on the day, although one of those was a touchdown. On third downs, he went 4-of-10 for 39 yards and just one first down. On Atlanta's half of the field, he went 9-of-20 for 75 yards with two first downs (neither of which came until the fourth quarter) and a sack. 27. Christian Ponder MIN 12/25 119 1 2 -69 -46 -22 Ponder threw an interception on the last play of the third quarter. It was his second interception of the day, and at that point, he was 5-of-13 for 36 yards and had misfired on seven passes in a row. He had also fumbled the ball on a red-zone running play, though Minnesota recovered. 28. Mark Sanchez NYJ 10/21 97 0 3 -94 -97 3 It just hit me that a good chunk of my professional football writing career has been devoted to pointing out Mark Sanchez's shortcomings. What if this is the end? I'm getting nostalgic now thinking about all those perfect back-foot passes that hit receivers right in the feet. If this was Sanchez's last start, he went out in fine form. His last eight dropbacks resulted in one 2-yard completion on second-and-7, five incompletions, and two sacks. And that's all after he threw three picks. By the way, Greg McElroy's final numbers: 5-of-7 passing for 29 yards, two rushes for 7 yards, 29 total DYAR. (The minimum number of attempts to be listed in the Quick Reads table is eight, so McElroy just misses.) 29. Drew Brees NO 28/50 341 0 5 -106 -106 0 I could just say "he threw five picks" and leave it at that, but I'll add that Brees went 4-of-5 for 18 yards with no first downs and only one successful play inside the Atlanta 20. 30. Chad Henne JAC 18/41 208 1 1 -107 -109 3 Third and fourth downs: 3-of-12 for 38 yards and only one first down. Oddly enough, he failed to convert seven of those plays with less than 10 yards to go, but he did pick up a third-and-17. 31. Jake Locker TEN 21/45 309 1 3 -121 -120 -1 In one stretch of 15 dropbacks over the second and third quarters, Locker went 4-of-10 for 28 yards with no first downs, two interceptions, and five sacks. He'd add another interception and a sack-fumble later. Locker spent most of his day trying and failing to get out of the shadows of his own end zone. Inside the Tennessee 20, he went 5-of-15 for 32 yards with one sack, two interceptions, and just one first down. And that's all INSIDE the 20. If we give him plays right at the 20, we can add one incompletion, one sack, and one completion for 6 yards on first down. Things weren't much better at the other end of the field. Inside the Houston 20, he went 1-of-4 for 7 yards, no first downs, and a sack-fumble. I need to stop piling on Locker now because there's someone who played even worse to talk about. 32. Ryan Lindley ARI 10/31 72 0 1 -155 -155 0 All right, get this. Lindley's first pass of the day was complete to Larry Fitzgerald for 23 yards. From that point to the middle of the fourth quarter, he went 8-of-26 for 33 yards with one interception, one sack, and NO FIRST DOWNS. Finally he hit Michael Floyd for 16 yards on second-and-10. And then he went incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, sack, game over, one-point loss. I'm sure Ryan Lindley's a nice guy. But he's not an NFL quarterback.

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Bryce Brown PHI 169 2 14 0 50 62 -12 Say hello to perhaps the only good thing about the Philadelphia Eagles' 2012 season. He does have some issues with ball security, with three fumbles in his last two games. Otherwise, though, there's plenty to like here. Only four times in 24 carries was he hit for no gain or a loss against Dallas, but he showed enough consistency to pick ten total first downs (including those touchdowns) on the ground, along with the burst to reel off seven runs of 10 yards or more and three of 20 yards or more, capped off by a 39-yarder. He also caught four passes in five targets for 14 yards, though only one of those plays (a 7-yard gain on second-and-10) met FO's standards of a successful play. 2. Adrian Peterson MIN 210 1 10 0 46 48 -3 It's getting to be a weekly thing here where I have to explain why Adrian Peterson is not the top-ranked running back. The shortest answer is that he gains an insane amount of yardage on a few carries most weeks, and otherwise doesn't bring a lot to the table. This week, for example, he had an 82-yard touchdown (on third-and-1 at that), plus first-down carries of 48 and 23 yards. His other 18 runs averaged only 3.2 yards apiece and gained only two first downs. Twelve of them gained 3 yards or less. He's also dinged for a couple of short-yardage failures. He's still the highest ranked runner over the course of the season, so it's not as if DYAR hates Adrian Peterson. It just usually finds a player or two who was less explosive but more consistent. 3. Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 103 0 13 0 37 36 1 4. Stevan Ridley NE 71 1 0 0 36 36 0 One of the better 3.7-yards-per-carry days you'll ever see. Ridley was only stuffed twice. Six of his runs gained exactly 2 yards, but three of those were short-yardage conversions, including a touchdown. He also had gains of 9 and 11 yards. 5. Vick Ballard IND 41 1 21 0 32 20 12 Two of Ballard's nine carries were stuffed in the backfield, but they came in long-yardage situations and so they don't hurt him too badly. He also had an 11-yard touchdown, a 13-yard gain on second-and-7, and a 4-yard gain on second-and-3 in the red zone. He caught three of the four passes thrown his way, including a 7-yard gain on third-and-5.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Arian Foster HOU 38 1 15 0 -42 -25 -17 Only two of Foster's 14 carries gained first downs (although one of those was a 2-yard touchdown), and his longest run gained only 7 yards. He was only stuffed once, but he also had a fumble. He caught each of the five passes thrown his way, but only one of those went for a first down, and three of them were failed plays on third downs (including a 4-yard loss on third-and-2). OTHER BACKS OF LITTLE VALUE: Chris Johnson, TEN (eight carries for 22 yards, four catches for 20 yards in five targets, one fumble); Rashad Jennings, JAC (eight carries for 22 yards, two fumbles); Beanie Wells, ARI (15 carries for 22 yards).

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Dez Bryant DAL 6 6 98 16.3 2 68 For some reason, Bryant had only one target in the first half, and that came just before the two-minute warning, as he caught a 14-yard pass on third-and-5. His first catch of the second half was a 5-yard gain on second-and-6. That was his last target that came up short of the sticks. His final four plays: 23-yard touchdown on third-and-2; 15-yard gain on third-and-3; 35-yard gain on third-and-2; and a 6-yard touchdown on second-and-goal. 2. Brandon Myers OAK 14 15 130 9.3 1 61 A sixth-round draft pick out of Iowa in 2009, Myers gained only 250 yards, total, in his first three seasons with the Raiders, and never went over 33 yards in a game. He became a full-time starter for the first time this year, but in the first 12 weeks of the season he averaged 54 yards a game and never went over 86 in a single contest. That all changed Sunday. Eight of his 14 catches produced first downs (including the touchdown), and four of the others counted as successful plays, including 8- and 9-yard gains on first-and-10 and a 14-yard catch on second-and-15. 3. Golden Tate SEA 5 6 96 19.2 1 56 Tate only had one target after halftime, but he made it count, scoring a go-ahead touchdown in the last minute of the fourth quarter. He had three other first downs on the day, including a 49-yard gain on third-and-6. 4. Sidney Rice SEA 6 9 99 16.5 1 51 Five of Rice's catches produced first downs or touchdowns. The sixth was a 9-yard gain on first-and-10. He played a big part in Seattle's late-game heroics. He had a 27-yard catch on Seattle's go-ahead fourth-quarter drive, and of course he caught the game-winner in overtime. Those two plays were worth 33 DYAR by themselves. 5. Josh Gordon CLE 6 7 116 19.3 1 49 The only pass thrown in Gordon's direction that he failed to catch was intercepted, but DYAR assigns that penalty to the quarterback, not the receiver. Gordon's longest catch was a 44-yard touchdown. Four of his other catches gained first downs. The last was a 5-yard gain on first-and-10.