Be careful what you wish for. It may be more than you bargained for.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is about to see her wish list more (or less) fulfilled when the provincial budget is unveiled next Thursday. On that day, her party will parse the promises, do the math — and then perform its own political calculations.

Here’s the big question: Can the NDP take “Yes” for an answer?

Not “Yes” on all counts, but an overall “Yes” from Premier Kathleen Wynne?

Minority government has handed her party the balance of power — and a strong voice in how decisions are made. That’s why Horwath set out a list of eight demands for the budget last February, followed by one additional request of Wynne: “I hope you will work with me.”

They met a few times to talk. The meetings stopped a few weeks ago, when Horwath insisted on a formal agenda before they sit down again.

Now, without the benefit of face-to-face meetings, Wynne is giving her replies publicly:

Her government will boost payouts to welfare recipients by reducing the “clawback” that punishes them for part-time work. They can now keep their first $200 in earnings, as the NDP demanded. And the Liberals will go further by raising the “asset limits” that a recipient can hang on to before qualifying for welfare — from about $600 now to $2,500 (plus a car worth up to $10,000). The NDP neglected to push for this latter request on asset limits, but a recent public commission recommended it.

Earlier this week, the Liberals announced $260 million in new home care funding, exceeding Horwath’s demand for $30 million to eliminate waiting lists.

Next week, it will be auto insurance: The NDP demanded a 15 per cent reduction in rates, which has struck a political chord. Finance Minister Charles Sousa will counter with a formal statement to the regulator (Financial Services Commission of Ontario) targeting a 15 per cent cut (on average), but not mandating it. Instead, the Liberals will argue that anti-fraud measures could reduce rates by up to 10 per cent, with best efforts to achieve the rest.

There will also be a youth job-creation plan, as the NDP demanded, but of a different design. And a new mechanism to look at increasing the minimum wage going forward (which the NDP didn’t bother seeking).

Sousa’s budget speech will not be the last word. A year ago, negotiations continued for a month beyond budget day until the two parties reached a deal.

Expect more post-budget manoeuvres on auto insurance. The New Democrats have made a persuasive case that insurance payouts have plunged since 2010, when the Liberals dramatically reduced compensation for most accident victims. But insurance rates are probably not a vote-determining issue (outside one or two ridings in the Brampton area where premiums have skyrocketed). And having once promised public auto insurance, the NDP would have to explain why they didn’t do it when they held power from 1990-95.

On welfare reform, will the NDP base — progressives and unionists — rally to an election call when the party is getting more than it asked for? Under Horwath, the party has consistently hedged its bets on poverty issues by making minimal demands. The NDP leader cites tactical considerations again this time: limiting herself to only one demand on social assistance allowed for “easy buy-in” from the Liberals, she told me. But, judging by the Liberal response, she underestimated Wynne’s willingness to implement welfare reforms.

The NDP isn’t getting everything it wanted in some areas, and getting more than it sought on other issues. It’s a good starting point, but the end game is hard to predict. Triggering an election depends more on political calculus than budgetary analysis.

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Horwath and Wynne aren’t meeting these days, and Tory Leader Tim Hudak is a mere bystander to their standoff. But the rest of us will be watching their post-budget showdown to see if it’s a pre-election gambit.

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