The Boston Red Sox are headed back to the playoffs, but they’re going to fall short of the World Series thanks to the Seattle Mariners.

Well, if you trust PredictionMachine.com, they will.

The website, created by statistician and sports writer Paul Bessire, runs simulations of the MLB season 50,000 times then figures out which teams will reign supreme based on the number of times they win. And according to this year’s simulation, the Red Sox will finish first in the American League East, beat the Los Angeles Angels in the AL Divisional Series and lose to the Mariners in the AL Championship Series.

The Mariners get theirs, though, as PredictionMachine.com says they’ll lose to the Washington Nationals — who came out on top in a league-high 16.4 percent of simulations — in the Fall Classic.

Boston finished dead last in the AL East last season at 71-91, so even an ALCS loss would be a welcome result compared to 2014. But Bessire’s “Predictalator” gives the Red Sox even more hope than that. The simulation pegged Boston as fourth in the power rankings with a 72.9 percent chance of making the playoffs. They even have the fifth-highest chances of winning the World Series at 8.2 percent.

What’s more, the simulation has the rival New York Yankees finishing third in the AL East and missing out on the playoffs for the third year in a row.

Here are PredictionMachine.com’s playoff picks, and you can check out all of the results here.

American League

Wild card: Los Angeles over Cleveland Indians

ALDS: Boston over Los Angeles

ALDS: Seattle over Kansas City Royals

ALCS: Seattle over Boston

National League

Wild card: Pittsburgh Pirates over San Francisco Giants

NLDS: Washington Nationals over Pittsburgh

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals

NLCS: Washington over Los Angeles

World Series

Washington over Seattle

Thumbnail photo via Winslow Townson/USA TODAY Sports Images