Andrews , T. , Gregory , J. M. , Webb , M. J. & Taylor , K. E. 2012 . Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models . Geophysical Research Letters 39 ( 9 ). doi: 10.1029/2012GL051607 .

Andronova , N. G. & Schlesinger , M. E. 2001 . Objective estimation of the probability density function for climate sensitivity . Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 106 ( D19 ), 22605 –11.

Ångström , A. K. 1915 . A study of the radiation of the atmosphere: based upon observations of the nocturnal radiation during expeditions to Algeria and to California . Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections 65 . Washington, D. C. : Smithsonian Institution .

Bond , T. C. , Doherty , S. J. , Fahey , D. W. , Forster , P. M. , Berntsen , T. , DeAngelo , B. J. , Flanner , M. G. , Ghan , S. , Kärcher , B. , Koch , D. , Kinne , S. , Kondo , Y. , Quinn , P. K. , Sarofim , M. C. , Schultz , M. G. , Schulz , M. , Venkataraman , C. , Zhang , H. , Zhang , S. , Bellouin , N. , Guttikunda , S. K. , Hopke , P. K. , Jacobson , M. Z. , Kaiser , J. W. , Klimont , Z. , Lohmann , U. , Schwarz , J. P. , Shindell , D. , Storelvmo , T. , Warren , S. G. & Zender , C. S. 2013 . Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment . Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 ( 11 ), 5380 –552.

Boucher , O. & Pham , M. 2002 . History of sulfate aerosol radiative forcings . Geophysical Research Letters 29 ( 9 ), 22-1 – 22-4 .

Budyko , M. I. 1956 . Teplovoi Balans Zemnoi Pverkhnosti . [.] Leningrad . [English translation by Stepanova , N. A. , US Weather Bureau, 1958.] .

Callendar , G. S. 1949 . Can carbon dioxide influence climate? Weather 4 ( 10 ), 310 –14.

Charlson , R. J. , Schwartz , S. E. , Hales , J. M. , Cess , R. D. , Coakley , J. J. Jr. , Hansen , J. E. & Hofmann , D. J. 1992 . Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols . Science 255 ( 5043 ), 423 –30.

Eby , M. , Zickfeld , K. , Montenegro , A. , Archer , D. , Meissner , K. J. & Weaver , A. J. 2009 . Lifetime of anthropogenic climate change: millennial time scales of potential CO 2 and surface temperature perturbations . Journal of Climate 22 ( 2 ), 501 –11.

Efron , B. & Tibshirani , R. J. 1994 . An Introduction to the Bootstrap . Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability 57 . Chapman & Hall/CRC Press . .

Etheridge , D. M. , Steele , L. P. , Langenfelds , R. L. , Francey , R. J. , Barnola , J. M. & Morgan , V. I. 1996 . Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO 2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn . Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 101 ( D2 ), 4115 –28.

Feulner , G. , Rahmstorf , S. , Levermann , A. & Volkwardt , S. 2013 . On the Origin of the Surface Air Temperature Difference between the Hemispheres in Earth's Present-Day Climate . Journal of Climate 26 ( 18 ), 7136 –50.

Flato , G. , Marotzke , J. , Abiodun , B. , Braconnot , P. , Chou , S.C. , Collins , W. , Cox , P. , Driouech , F. , Emori , S. , Eyring , V. , Forest , C. , Gleckler , P. , Guilyardi , E. , Jakob , C. , Kattsov , V. , Reason , C. & Rummukainen , M. 2013 . Evaluation of Climate Models . In Stocker , T. F. , Qin , D. , Plattner , G. -K. , Tignor , M. , Allen , S. K. , Boschung , J. , Nauels , A. , Xia , Y. , Bex , V. & Midgley , P. M. (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 741 – 866 . Cambridge, UK & New York : Cambridge University Press .

Forster , P. M. , Andrews , T. , Good , P. , Gregory , J. M. , Jackson , L. S. & Zelinka , M. 2013 . Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models . Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 ( 3 ), 1139 –50.

Forster , P. M. & Gregory , J. M. 2006 . The climate sensitivity and its components diagnosed from Earth radiation budget data . Journal of Climate 19 ( 1 ), 39 – 52 .

Foster , G. , Annan , J. D. , Schmidt , G. A. & Mann , M. E. 2008 . Comment on “Heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth's climate system” by S. E. Schwartz . Journal of Geophysical Research 113 , D15102 . doi: 10.1029/2007JD009373 .

Gregory , J. M. , Ingram , W. J. , Palmer , M. A. , Jones , G. S. , Stott , P. A. , Thorpe , R. B. , Lowe , J. A. , Johns , T. C. & Williams , K. D. 2004 . A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity . Geophysical Research Letters 31 ( 3 ), , 1 – 4 .

Haigh , J. D. 2002 . Radiative forcing of climate change . Weather 57 ( 8 ), 278 –83.

Hansen , J. , Lacis , A. , Rind , D. , Russell , G. , Stone , P. , Fung , I. , Ruedy , R. & Lerner , J. 1984 . Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms . In Hansen , J. E. & Takahashi , T. (eds) Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity . AGU Geophysical Monograph 29 (Maurice Ewing Vol. 5) , 130 –63. Washington, D. C. : American Geophysical Union .

Hansen , J. , Sato , M. , Kharecha , P. & Schuckmann , K. V. 2011 . Earth's energy imbalance and implications . Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11 ( 24 ), 13421 –49.

Hastie , T. & Tibshirani , R. 1986 . Generalized additive models . Statistical Science 1 ( 3 ), 297 – 310 .

Held , I. M. 2013 . Climate science: the cause of the pause . Nature 501 ( 7467 ), 318 –19.

IPCC . 2001 . Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis . . [ Houghton , J. T. , Ding , Y. , Griggs , D. J. , Noguer , M. , van der Linden , P. J. , Dai , X. , Maskell , K. & Johnson , C. A. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK & New York : Cambridge University Press . .

Jones , P. D. , Wigley , T. M. L. & Kelly , P. M. 1982 . Variations in surface air temperatures: Part 1. Northern Hemisphere, 1881–1980 . Monthly Weather Review 110 ( 2 ), 59 – 70 .

Joos , F. , Prentice , I. C. , Sitch , S. , Meyer , R. , Hooss , G. , Plattner , G. K. , Gerbe , S. & Hasselmann , K. 2001 . Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios . Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 ( 4 ), 891 – 907 .

Keeling , C. D. 1960 . The concentration and isotopic abundances of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere . Tellus 12 , 200 –03.

Knutti , R. , Kraehenmann , S. , Frame , D. J. & Allen , M. R. 2008 . Comment on “Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth's climate system” by S. E. Schwartz . Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 113 ( D15 ), , 1 – 6 .

Lambert , F. H. , Webb , M. J. & Joshi , M. M. 2011 . The relationship between land–ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing . Journal of Climate 24 ( 13 ), 3239 –56.

Lean , J. , Beer , J. & Bradley , R. 1995 . Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: implications for climate change . Geophysical Research Letters 22 ( 23 ), 3195 –98.

Manabe , S. & Wetherald , R. T. 1975 . The effects of doubling the CO 2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model . Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 32 ( 1 ), 3 – 15 .

Masters , T. 2014 . Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models . Climate Dynamics 42 ( 7–8 ), 2173 –81.

Meehl , G. A. , Covey , C. , Taylor , K. E. , Delworth , T. , Stouffer , R. J. , Latif , M. , McAvaney , B. & Mitchell , J. F. 2007 . The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88 ( 9 ), 1383 –94.

Meinshausen , M. , Smith , S. J. , Calvin , K. , Daniel , J. S. , Kainuma , M. L. T. , Lamarque , J. F. , Matsumoto , K. , Montzka , S. A , Raper , S. C. B. , Riahi , K. , Thomson , A. , Velders , G. J. M. & Van Vuuren , D. P. P. 2011 . The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 . Climatic change 109 ( 1-2 ), 213 –41.

Mitchell , J. F. B. , Johns , T. C. , Gregory , J. M. & Tett , S. F. B. 1995 . Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols . Nature 376 , 501 –04.

Mohr , K. F. 1837 . Ansichten über die Natur der Wärme. [Views on the Nature of Heat.] Annalen der Pharmacie 24 , 141 –47.

Murphy , D. M. , Solomon , S. , Portmann , R. W. , Rosenlof , K. H. , Forster , P. M. & Wong , T. 2009 . An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950 . Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 114 , D17107 .

Myhre , G. , Myhre , A. & Storda , F. 2001 . Historical evolution of radiative forcing of climate . Atmosphere Environment 35 , 2361 –73.

Myhre , G. , Shindell , D. , Bréon , F. -M. , Collins , W. , Fuglestvedt , J. , Huang , J. , Koch , D. , Lamarque , J. -F. , Lee , D. , Mendoza , B. , Nakajima , T. , Robock , A. , Stephens , G. , Takemura , T. & Zhang , H. 2013 . Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing . In Stocker , T. F. , Qin , D. , Plattner , G. -K. , Tignor , M. , Allen , S. K. , Boschung , J. , Nauels , A. , Xia , Y. , Bex , V. & Midgley , P. M. (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 659 – 740 . Cambridge, UK & New York : Cambridge University Press .

Peters , G. P. , Andrew , R. M. , Boden , T. , Canadell , J. G. , Ciais , P. , Le Quéré , C. , Marland , G. , Raupach , M. R. & Wilson , C. 2013 . The challenge to keep global warming below 2oC . Nature Climate Change 3 ( 1 ), 4 – 6 .

Pierrehumbert , R. T. 2014 . Short-lived climate pollution . Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 42 ( 1 ), 341 –79.

Pinheiro , J. C. & Bates , D. M. 2000 . Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-PLUS . New York : Springer-Verlag .

Raymo , M. E. , Grant , B. , Horowitz , M. & Rau , G. H. 1996 . Mid-Pliocene warmth: stronger greenhouse and stronger conveyor . Marine Micropaleontology 27 ( 1–4 ), 313 –26.

Roberts , C. D. , Palmer , M. D. , McNeall , D. , & Collins , M. 2015 . Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming . Nature Climate Change 5 , 337 –42.

Schwartz , S. E. 2007 . Heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth's climate system . Journal of Geophysical Research 112 , D24S05 . doi: 10.1029/2007JD008746 .

Shindell , D. T. 2014 . Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity . Nature Climate Change 4 , 274 –77.

Stainforth , D. A. , Aina , T. , Christensen , C. , Collins , M. , Faull , N. , Frame , D. J. , Kettleborough , J. A. , Knight , S. , Martin , A. , Murphy , J. M. , Piani , C. , Sexton , D. , Smith , L. A. , Spicer , R. A. , Thorpe , A. J. and Allen , M. R. 2005 . Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases . Nature 433 ( 7024 ). 403 –06.

Stevenson , D. 2015 . Atmospheric chemistry: Climate's chemical sensitivity . Nature Climate Change 5 , 21 – 22 .

Taylor , K. E. , Stouffer , R. J. & Meehl , G. A. 2012 . An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93 ( 4 ), 485 –98.

Tol , R. S. & De Vos , A. F. 1998 . A Bayesian statistical analysis of the enhanced greenhouse effect . Climatic Change 38 ( 1 ), 87 – 112 .

Urban , N. M. & Keller , K. 2009 . Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity . Geophysical Research Letters 36 ( 4 ), L04708 . doi: 10.1029/2008GL036457

Wigley , T. M. & Santer , B. D. 2013 . A probabilistic quantification of the anthropogenic component of twentieth century global warming . Climate Dynamics 40 ( 5–6 ), 1087 –102.