Whether or not he will actually manage to beat Modi is debatable, but there is some truth to the argument that the Aam Aadmi Party are making strong gains in Varanasi.

Despite his high voltage campaign against Narendra Modi, no one really gives Arvind Kejriwal even a whisper of hope in Varanasi. Apart from Kejriwal's roadshow before he filed his nomination papers and a few headlines about AAP-BJP clashes, all the buzz from the holy city has been about the BJP's prime ministerial candidate.

But Kejriwal, ever the optimist, appears not only confident that he will play David to Narendra Modi's Goliath in the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency but also that the Bharatiya Janata Party's self-proclaimed strides to victory and all the opinion polls predicting that the NDA could end just a whisker from a clear majority in Lok Sabha are overstated.

In an interview to the Economic Times in Varanasi, Kejriwal says the Bharatiya Janata Party will not be in a position to form the government following counting day on May 16.

Claiming that opinion polls have been purchased, he says the party will get only about 170 seats.

The Congress, he says, "is finished". And if Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi loses in Amethi, the party will simply implode the very next day, he claims. "...the Congress will break into pieces. You watch," he says.

Predicting a fractured mandate, he says the AAP will not support any party.

The former Delhi CM thinks these elections will just be a rehearsal for things to come and fresh polls are imminent.

"This mandate will be a fractured one. It will not provide a stable government. This is a time for churning. In the short term, it will have pangs. In the long term, it will be good for the country", he tells the Economic Times.

Whether or not his predictions will actually prove to be accurate remains to be seen, but there is some truth to the argument that the Aam Aadmi Party is making strong gains in Varanasi. He says he has seen a surge of support for the party that has only grown since his roadshow:

"In the last three or four days, something has happened that within the city, strongholds of BJP have started to break. BJP supporters themselves are openly saying that we will vote for jhaadu (AAP) this time. The biggest factor working in our favour is our accessibility. People are saying, 'You can meet this man. He sits with us, eats with us, moves with us. He is one of us.' That's why people this time are saying we will give our vote to a grounded person, one who is like us."

Firstpost columnist Ajaz Ashraf noted that a number of workers for other political parties including Nitish Kumar's JD(U) were actively canvassing for Kejriwal in Varanasi. He writes:

The Janata Dal (U) has extended support to Kejriwal in Varanasi, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist), or the CPI (ML), has asked its cadres to work openly for him. Significantly, many of the Communist Party of India (CPI) cadres in Varanasi have also decided to contribute their might to Kejriwal’s endeavour, in the process shunning Hira Lal Yadav, who is the CPI (Marxist) candidate in the battle to win the city of temples and ghats.

This, he says, is a sign that Kejriwal is being seen as the ultimate anti-Modi icon. "He has veritably become, to quote a social scientist, the “most authentic face” of opposition against the politics of BJP, the meaning its prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, embodies, and the culture of crony capitalism that is said to haunt the nation."

In other words, there is truth to the argument that Kejriwal cannot simply be written off. Love him or hate him, there is something about him that draws people to him. He has the same charisma that has seen his opponent Narendra Modi get to where he is. And though this may not be his election to win, this may still be the election that establishes him - by returning to him some of the credibility lost after his 49-day Delhi government debacle.

Because if Kejriwal does manage to perform decently against Modi, the very act of his contesting will be seen as an act of valour rather than one of hubris.

Whether his psephology is as good as his politicking remains to be seen.