Chris Cillizza

The Washington Post

The last month has been disastrous for Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton got a major bounce from the Democratic National Convention. Trump got no such bounce from his own convention. And he’s compounded his problems with a series of increasingly erratic performances on the campaign trail even as his advisers — and the broader Republican Party — worry that he is on a path to not just lose but to lose, in Trump’s own words, bigly.

A look at the electoral map makes plain just how narrow Trump’s path really is — and how badly it has eroded over the last month.

In early July, that map gave Clinton 201 electoral votes to 158 for Trump. Another 105 electoral votes were “toss-ups” while 33 were rated “lean Republican” and 41 “lean Democratic.”

The new map gives Clinton 273 electoral votes to Trump’s 175, meaning she wins the White House even if she loses all six of the states we currently rate as “toss-ups.”

Of the changes we’ve made since last month, almost all of them favor Clinton.

Three states — Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Hampshire — all move from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic.” Clinton holds leads of 9.2 points, 8 points and 8.2 points in the three states respectively, according to RealClearPolitics. Pennsylvania, in particular, is a major blow to Trump since, as recently as last month, polling suggested he was very competitive in the state. Pennsylvania’s move away from Trump is of a piece with his ongoing struggles to make the broader Rust Belt competitive, with Michigan and Wisconsin continuing to look out of reach.

We’re also moving Georgia — and its 16 electoral votes — from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” amid several credible polls suggesting a close race. (Clinton actually has a 0.3 percentage point lead in the Peach State, according to Real Clear.) The Clinton campaign is also adding staff resources in Georgia.

And we’re adding Missouri and its 10 electoral votes onto our list of competitive states, with a “lean Republican” ranking. Polling suggests Trump holds a mid-single-digit lead, but his struggles with suburban Republicans in St. Louis and Kansas City make this a state worth watching.

The lone piece of good news for Trump in our latest rankings is that we are moving Nevada from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up” given that polling shows a close race in the state. The problem for Trump is that Nevada’s six electoral votes don’t make up for, say, Pennsylvania’s 20. Or Virginia’s 13.

Here’s the full list of competitive states as RealClearPolitics polling currently places them:

Toss-up (90 electoral votes)

Florida (29)

Georgia (16)*

Iowa (6)

Ohio (18)

Nevada (6)#

North Carolina (15)

Lean Democratic (72 electoral votes)

Colorado (9)

Michigan (16)

New Hampshire (4)*

Pennsylvania (20)*

Virginia (13)*

Wisconsin (10)

Lean Republican (27 electoral votes)

Arizona (11)

Missouri (10)*

Utah (6)

* — moved in favor of Democrats since last rankings

# — moved in favor of Republicans since last rankings