The number of Tory MPs who oppose the deal stands at 82. Leigh may vote against after all.

All week, different estimates have been flying back and forth of the scale of opposition to the Prime Minister’s proposed Brexit deal. As is always the case, the pressure of bigger-is-better pushes the numbers ever higher, and encourages those doing the calculating to become ever more relaxed about their criteria.

As Paul warned in December, such endless inflation is also convenient for Downing Street, in that it skews the question of expectation management: ‘Ponder the possible consequences of an expectation that the Government will lose the meaningful vote by 200…and it actually losing it by, say, 50. Disaster would suddenly be spun as triumph.’

In order to prioritise accuracy above excitability, ConservativeHome has been more, well, conservative when calculating our own list.

The tests we have applied are somewhat stricter. Simply supporting Stand Up 4 Brexit, or criticising Chequers, or even writing a letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister, is not in itself enough to be taken as proof of opposition to the deal. Some very pro-Brexit and very anti-Chequers MPs will likely vote with the Government when the ‘meaningful vote’ comes.

For our estimate, we have identified three categories of MP.

The first contains those who oppose the deal. They have said or written, publicly, that they will vote against it, or at minimum that they will not support it. We count 81 MPs in this group.

The second contains those who probably oppose the deal. They are on record opposing it to some degree, but mostly with an attendant caveat which implies they might perhaps be won round. Some have committed to oppose the deal “as it stands” or “in its current form”, or specified an amendment that would assuage their concerns. Also included are several MPs whose response to the deal has been to say they want a second referendum as a direct and preferable alternative, but not unambiguously commit themselves to opposing it. We count 20 MPs in this group.

The third contains those who maybe oppose the deal. These are MPs who have either specified concerns and said they are awaiting answers, or whose inclination appears to be to want to follow the whip but describe it as some variation of “difficult to support”. We count a further 9 MPs in this group.

All the names in each group are listed at the foot of this post.

As those definitions imply, this is an art more than a science. The variation in MPs’ turns of phrase alone makes it tricky to apply hard and fast rules – some prefer the courtly language of “I cannot support this” when they mean “I hate it with a passion and would vote against it a thousand times given the chance”, while others are freely vituperative in their condemnation but less courageous in the voting lobbies.

Some MPs may therefore pop up after this list is published to clarify their precise position as firmer or softer than we have been able to judge from their public statements; I particularly anticipate several of those listed in the grey zone of “probably oppose” due to vague phrasing might well wish to identify themselves as certain opponents.

Indeed, we encourage clarifications of any sort – more information is always a useful thing.

Others who are thus far undecided may yet decide to come out as opponents of the deal, while some who are currently opposed might be won round by the Government’s arguments, or by amendments that could yet be conceded.

In other words, this list will change between now and the vote. Indeed, I would be amazed if it does not. But at this point it is our best estimate.

10/1/19: We have added Andrew Mitchell and Douglas Ross to the opposition column, on the basis of their contributions in Hansard, and removed George Freeman and Trudi Harrison, who have tweeted today that they will support the deal.

14/1/19 – 9am: Edward Leigh has now been removed altogether, having been downgraded from a probable to a possible on Friday. None of the three Brexiteers listed as supporting Downing Street this morning – Andrew Murrison, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown and Caroline Johnson – were on our list in the first place.

14.30: Gareth Johnson has resigned as a whip to vote against the deal tomorrow.

21.45: Desmond Swayne has been moved from the Opposition column to the possibles, and Andrew Selous has been removed from the possibles. And John Hayes has been moved from the probables to those opposed.

15/1/19 – 9am: Greg Hands and Julian Sturdy will vote against the deal.

– 10.30am: Charlie Elphicke will vote against.

– 3pm: Pauline Latham has confirmed she will vote against, as has Guto Bebb.

– 5pm: We understand William Wragg will vote against. Meanwhile, Neil Parish, formerly on our probables list, has decided to vote for the deal.

– 6pm: Robert Syms, Rob Halfon and Fiona Bruce will vote against. So we move the first two from our probables list to our opposition one. Edward Leigh now says he may vote against so we reinstate him on our possibles.

– 6.20pm: Craig Tracey is upgraded from a probable to an opponent of the deal – notably he is currently a PPS.

Oppose the deal (82 MPs)

Lucy Allan

Heidi Allen

Sir David Amess

Steve Baker

Guto Bebb

Crispin Blunt

Peter Bone

Ben Bradley

Suella Braverman

Andrew Bridgen

–

Fiona Bruce

Conor Burns

Sir William Cash

Maria Caulfield

Rehman Chishti

Sir Christopher Chope

Simon Clarke

Damian Collins

Tracey Crouch

Philip Davies

–

David Davis

Nadine Dorries

Steve Double

Richard Drax

James Duddridge

Iain Duncan Smith

Charlie Elphicke

Nigel Evans

Michael Fabricant

Mark Francois

–

Marcus Fysh

Zac Goldsmith

James Gray

Chris Green

Dominic Grieve

Sam Gyimah

Robert Halfon

Greg Hands

Mark Harper

John Hayes

–

Philip Hollobone

Adam Holloway

Ranil Jayawardena

Sir Bernard Jenkin

Andrea Jenkyns

Boris Johnson

Gareth Johnson

Jo Johnson

David Jones

John Lamont

–

Pauline Latham

Andrew Lewer

Julian Lewis

Julia Lopez

Tim Loughton

Craig Mackinlay

Esther McVey

Johnny Mercer

Andrew Mitchell

Anne-Marie Morris

–

Sheryll Murray

Priti Patel

Owen Paterson

Mark Pritchard

Dominic Raab

John Redwood

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Laurence Robertson

Andrew Rosindell

Douglas Ross

–

Lee Rowley

Henry Smith

Sir Desmond Swayne

Julian Sturdy

Sir Robert Syms

Ross Thomson

Michael Tomlinson

Craig Tracey

Anne-Marie Trevelyan

Shailesh Vara

Martin Vickers

–

Theresa Villiers

William Wragg

Will probably vote against the deal (20 MPs)

John Baron

Guto Bebb

David Evennett

Michael Fallon

George Freeman

Justine Greening

Rob Halfon

Trudy Harrison

Sir John Hayes

Gordon Henderson

Pauline Latham

Sir Edward Leigh

Sir Greg Knight

Anne Main

Scott Mann

Stephen McPartland

Nigel Mills

–

Damien Moore

Matthew Offord

Neil Parish

Sir Mike Penning

Royston Smith

Anna Soubry

Bob Stewart

Sir Robert Syms

Derek Thomas

Craig Tracey

Giles Watling

John Whittingdale

Sarah Wollaston

Will perhaps vote against the deal (9 MPs)