Contenders and Pretenders

The playoffs are pretty well set and it became pretty clear to us that there are really only a few legitimate Super Bowl contenders left and there will most likely be a whole bunch of pretenders in the playoffs this year.

In the AFC, all that’s left to lock up is the seeding, as the Patriots, Chiefs, Steelers, Texans. Raiders and Dolphins are all in and our best guess is that’s the order they’ll be seeded.

In the NFC, the Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks and Giants are all in, either the Packers or the Lions will definitely be in and the loser of their Week 17 Sunday night finale will be left to sort out with Washington and Tampa for the final spot.

Now let’s get to what really matters, how many of those 12 clubs – and we know we’ve got 10 of them – have a really solid shot at getting to the Super Bowl?

Only Three To Watch In The AFC

If they hang on to the No. 1 seed, who is going to beat the New England Patriots in the divisional playoffs or AFC title game?

When Gronk went down a few weeks back we wondered if they’d have enough to make it all the way to Houston and they’ve answered the question with an emphatic yes.

LeGarrette Blount continues to have an All-Pro season and is a touchdown-scoring machine.

While no one has stood up to be the every-week, go-to guy in the passing game, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and James White have all shown big-play ability. If he can get close to 100 percent healthy, Martellus Bennett gives Tom Brady a Gronk-like weapon and Malcolm Mitchell, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola are all key contributors.

On defense, the Pats have played their two best games of the season the last two weeks in Denver and against the Jets.

Can anyone in the AFC keep them from getting to Super Bowl LI in Houston?

The Texans and Dolphins might as well just mail it in if they have to go to Foxborough.

Matt Moore isn’t really even a step down from Ryan Tannehill for the Dolphins and they probably can put some points up on the Pats, but after allowing 31 points to Buffalo, 38 to Baltimore and 24 to San Francisco over the past five weeks, it’s painfully obvious the Dolphins' 'D' isn’t going to beat New England in January.

Houston’s defense might slow the Patriots down for a while, but can you really imagine a scenario where either Tom Savage or Brock Osweiler goes to Foxborough in January and suddenly becomes the quarterback neither has ever been before?

We can certainly see the Dolphins playing with Houston or Oakland in its current state, and they actually beat the Steelers up in Week FIve, but it’s near impossible to find a scenario in which the Texans defeat any of the other five AFC playoff clubs.

Oakland would have been dangerous against anyone in the AFC with Derek Carr at quarterback, but the defense is clearly a year away or more and now that Matt McGloin is the man, we don’t see them winning another game this year – either next week at Denver or in the playoffs.

The Raiders are 28th in total defense and tied for 19th in points allowed and even if they do somehow get to Foxborough, there’s no way they’re getting by the Pats without Carr.

Kansas City and Pittsburgh each appear to have a shot at the Patriots. If the Chiefs can get Justin Houston back on the field and mount the pass rush of their lives just like Denver did to New England in last year’s AFC title game, they may have the 'D' to get it done. If Sammie Coates and Lardarius Green healthy and make the game a track meet, the Steelers would give the Pats a run.

At the end of the day, though, the AFC title goes through New England and we don’t see any visitor coming out victorious.

Is the NFC Up For Grabs?

There is no question the Dallas Cowboys are the best team in the NFC right now, but after they were shut down on offense by the Giants two weeks ago, and with multiple question marks on defense, it wouldn’t be shocking to see any of the other NFC playoff clubs knock them off on a given day.

That said, the Falcons, Seahawks and Packers are the only clubs likely to turn the trick in January.

While the Giants have proven they can beat the Cowboys, Eli Manning isn’t playing very well right now and we’re not sure the Giants can handle Green Bay, Seattle or Atlanta.

New York has already been a pleasant surprise this season, but a Super Bowl trip sounds like an awful lot to ask.

Should Detroit, Washington or Tampa get a crack at Dallas, we don’t see where any of them have the horses to run with Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant or to battle that incredible offensive line to a draw.

In fact, it’s hard to imagine any of those three winning a playoff game against any of the other clubs they might face.

Green Bay will probably get into the playoffs as the NFC North champ, but they’re also the real wild card in this conversation.

Yes, they got beat up pretty good by Dallas in Week Five, but that was in the middle of a span of three games in 12 days, part of a five losses in six weeks stretch of the season when Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Sam Shields, Demarious Randle, Quinton Rollins and Clay Matthews were all getting banged up and before they found their groove.

Should Green Bay make the playoffs, they’ll be the hottest team in on a run of six straight wins. They pounded Seattle 38-10 just three weeks ago and also own a 23-16 win over the Giants and dropped a 33-32 last-minute heartbreaker at Atlanta to start a four-game losing streak before they got hot.

If the Pack get in, they’ll be dangerous for everybody.

We’re hard-pressed to see Seattle going deep this year off the way they’ve played recently, dropping three of their last five while losing to Tampa and Arizona in addition to the Packers.

It seems very obvious they miss Earl Thomas and that it is him rather than Richard Sherman who is the lifeblood of that defense, although Sherman is special, too.

And that’s why we won’t rule Seattle out. They still have some very special players on both sides of the ball and while it was with Thomas at safety, their Week 10 31-24 win at New England was one of the most impressive performances of the season by any team.

It looks to us, however, like the club Dallas and the rest of the NFC should fear the most right now is Atlanta.

The Falcons have the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL and clearly pose the most serious threat to the Dallas defense.

While Julio Jones, Jake Matthews and Tevin Coleman have been banged up recently, all are back now and the Falcons may be the healthiest of the NFC playoff teams.

Matt Ryan has had an MVP-caliber season and Atlanta owns quality wins in addition to the Packers game at Oakland and at Denver.

Atlanta’s defense is suspect, but unlike Dallas, which relies on Sean Lee to be super-human and everyone else to avoid mistakes, the Falcons have very quietly gone uber-young. Rookies Keanu Neal at safety and Deion Jones and DeVondre Campbell at linebacker are playing like veteran big-play threats, and second-year player Vic Beasley has become the game-wrecker they envisioned when they used the eighth pick in the 2015 draft on the youngster who has 14½ sacks this year to lead the NFL.

We only had this half right in August, but the Way We See It right now, we might very well see a New England-Atlanta Super Bowl in Houston.