Northam: 51.1% of the vote; 62% chance of victory

Gillespie: 48.9% of the vote; 38% chance of victory

On November, Virginians head to the polls to elect a new governor. The contest pits former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie against current Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam. With polls divergent and a public restless to extrapolate from a single race Trump’s drag — or lack thereof — on the GOP, especially in a swingy state, and its potential ramifications for next year’s midterm elections, the Virginia governor’s race comes with excitement and anxiety.

This model ignores statewide polling and instead combines past electoral data, county demographics, and the generic congress poll to predict vote shares by each Virginia locality (bootstrapping data and simulating the election 13,000 times). It then multiples the vote share by the expected votes cast in each locality (a linear extrapolation from the past five governor elections) to predict an overall winner.

PoliticalEdu’s Virginia governor’s election prediction shows Ralph Northam ever so slightly edging out Ed Gillespie 51.1% to 48.9%. This translates to Northam having a 62% chance of victory and Gillespie a 38% chance.

The table below shows the Virginia governor’s election predictions by locality. This serves as a baseline against which results can be compared to see how candidates fare as localities report their votes.







Locality Northam Forecast Gillespie Forecast Accomack County 43.36% 56.64% Albemarle County 61.64% 38.36% Alexandria city 79.07% 20.93% Alleghany County 41.16% 58.84% Amelia County 30.81% 69.19% Amherst County 34.50% 65.50% Appomattox County 25.95% 74.05% Arlington County 81.61% 18.39% Augusta County 24.31% 75.69% Bath County 39.79% 60.21% Bedford County 24.74% 75.26% Bland County 17.65% 82.35% Botetourt County 27.08% 72.92% Bristol city 28.95% 71.05% Brunswick County 58.19% 41.81% Buchanan County 25.53% 74.47% Buckingham County 43.02% 56.98% Buena Vista city 33.87% 66.13% Campbell County 24.73% 75.27% Caroline County 46.26% 53.74% Carroll County 23.07% 76.93% Charles City County 62.31% 37.69% Charlotte County 37.58% 62.42% Charlottesville city 85.78% 14.22% Chesapeake city 47.61% 52.39% Chesterfield County 44.97% 55.03% Clarke County 40.41% 59.59% Colonial Heights city 26.24% 73.76% Covington city 49.16% 50.84% Craig County 24.38% 75.62% Culpeper County 35.97% 64.03% Cumberland County 41.33% 58.67% Danville city 56.13% 43.87% Dickenson County 28.71% 71.29% Dinwiddie County 43.07% 56.93% Emporia city 62.46% 37.54% Essex County 46.34% 53.66% Fairfax County 66.59% 33.41% Fairfax city 62.24% 37.76% Falls Church city 81.93% 18.07% Fauquier County 36.99% 63.01% Floyd County 33.82% 66.18% Fluvanna County 44.64% 55.36% Franklin County 27.38% 72.62% Franklin city 66.08% 33.92% Frederick County 30.74% 69.26% Fredericksburg city 61.59% 38.41% Galax city 33.14% 66.86% Giles County 29.70% 70.30% Gloucester County 29.37% 70.63% Goochland County 36.01% 63.99% Grayson County 24.03% 75.97% Greene County 32.25% 67.75% Greensville County 58.67% 41.33% Halifax County 41.43% 58.57% Hampton city 67.37% 32.63% Hanover County 31.28% 68.72% Harrisonburg city 57.74% 42.26% Henrico County 56.50% 43.50% Henry County 35.76% 64.24% Highland County 34.56% 65.44% Hopewell city 49.33% 50.67% Isle of Wight County 38.90% 61.10% James City County 45.16% 54.84% King and Queen County 42.63% 57.37% King George County 34.47% 65.53% King William County 31.05% 68.95% Lancaster County 43.64% 56.36% Lee County 21.24% 78.76% Lexington city 67.39% 32.61% Loudoun County 55.54% 44.46% Louisa County 37.26% 62.74% Lunenburg County 40.46% 59.54% Lynchburg city 42.01% 57.99% Madison County 34.39% 65.61% Manassas city 52.95% 47.05% Manassas Park city 58.46% 41.54% Martinsville city 59.68% 40.32% Mathews County 31.76% 68.24% Mecklenburg County 40.56% 59.44% Middlesex County 35.82% 64.18% Montgomery County 50.99% 49.01% Nelson County 49.11% 50.89% New Kent County 29.12% 70.88% Newport News city 60.54% 39.46% Norfolk city 69.98% 30.02% Northampton County 54.00% 46.00% Northumberland County 40.04% 59.96% Norton city 32.71% 67.29% Nottoway County 43.32% 56.68% Orange County 36.55% 63.45% Page County 28.06% 71.94% Patrick County 25.13% 74.87% Petersburg city 89.38% 10.62% Pittsylvania County 29.83% 70.17% Poquoson city 23.96% 76.04% Portsmouth city 67.40% 32.60% Powhatan County 23.81% 76.19% Prince Edward County 52.71% 47.29% Prince George County 38.12% 61.88% Prince William County 56.54% 43.46% Pulaski County 31.67% 68.33% Radford city 51.68% 48.32% Rappahannock County 44.45% 55.55% Richmond County 35.44% 64.56% Richmond city 80.91% 19.09% Roanoke County 33.99% 66.01% Roanoke city 60.79% 39.21% Rockbridge County 38.43% 61.57% Rockingham County 25.39% 74.61% Russell County 26.21% 73.79% Salem city 37.29% 62.71% Scott County 18.32% 81.68% Shenandoah County 27.94% 72.06% Smyth County 24.58% 75.42% Southampton County 42.02% 57.98% Spotsylvania County 39.24% 60.76% Stafford County 42.85% 57.15% Staunton city 49.86% 50.14% Suffolk city 54.11% 45.89% Surry County 56.78% 43.22% Sussex County 56.28% 43.72% Tazewell County 19.99% 80.01% Virginia Beach city 46.19% 53.81% Warren County 32.41% 67.59% Washington County 24.56% 75.44% Waynesboro city 40.94% 59.06% Westmoreland County 46.89% 53.11% Williamsburg city 70.87% 29.13% Winchester city 49.94% 50.06% Wise County 22.94% 77.06% Wythe County 24.18% 75.82% York County 38.90% 61.10%





