Tropical Storm Richard has formed in the Caribbean Sea this morning, and it’s worth highlighting as this storm may be an eventual threat to the United States.

U.S. Navy

Don’t get me wrong — it’s almost certainly not a threat to Texas — but the storm could eventually reach the southern Gulf of Mexico. And Richard may very well intensify rapidly, with a chance that it could become a major hurricane before striking the Yucatan.

It goes without saying that there’s a lot of uncertainty, but it’s becoming less likely Richard will interact significantly with Honduras and this favors more intensification.

At the very least it will bring flood-inducing rains to northern Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula, areas which have already been inundated this hurricane season.

The question is where Richard will go if it reaches the Gulf. Some models forecast the storm will eventually track toward Florida, reaching that state during the next five to seven days.

In addition to bringing hurricane conditions to that state, Richard could also affect the final flight of space shuttle Discovery, presently scheduled for Nov. 1 off the eastern coast of Florida.

Given the uncertainty in the forecast I think it’s helpful to look at the ten best “analog” tracks based upon current conditions and forecast weather conditions. They are shown below:

The bottom line is that Richard is a storm worth watching by the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

Closer to home, models are coming into better agreement about a robust cold front –nights in upper 40s, maybe? — moving through Houston next Wednesday or Thursday. By then I suspect we’ll all be ready for it.