Daniel Ricciardo knew the scale of the task he was taking on when he left Red Bull for Renault last year and he did it, as ever, with a beaming smile. The Australian was venturing into a long-term project he hopes will present him with the chance to compete with his former team, as well as Ferrari and Mercedes, for the world championship. It was a bold move based on being convinced that Renault’s plan, investment and organisation would be in contention after several years.

In Monaco last weekend, a circuit Ricciardo has truly mastered, not least with his win last year, he turned in the team’s best qualifying of the season, taking sixth place and was optimistic for more. His race began well. As had been hoped, he passed Kevin Magnussen for fifth but was then seriously compromised when Renault sent him into the pits under the safety car and he lost track position to his rivals who stayed out. He finished in ninth and was not happy.

“It’s frustrating,” he said. “I have to sit down with the team to understand the reasoning behind that. I’m upset but I’ll try and get an understanding before I lose my shit.”

That is about as high a threat as Ricciardo ever issues in public. In this case it seems unlikely that the honey badger will have gone entirely feral, especially as the team principal, Cyril Abiteboul, was sharpish in holding his hands up. “Unfortunately, the single most important decision of the day was to stop Daniel under the safety car,” he said. “It turned out to be the wrong one.”

In fairness, it was simply the wrong strategic call. Mercedes made a similar error with Lewis Hamilton’s tyre choice but got away with it by the thinnest of treads. Ricciardo’s frustration is likely to have been prompted more by the lost opportunity in a season when Renault have underperformed.

This is the more serious problem. They are eighth in the constructors’ championship and have had three point-scoring finishes. Last season they were fourth and went into this year targeting at the very least narrowing the gap to the front three, if not catching Red Bull. Yes, they are expecting the 2021 regulation changes to be a major chance to match the frontrunners, but progress toward that, not standing still, was expected in the interim.

Daniel Ricciardo admitted to feeling ‘frustrated’ and ‘upset’ over a team order at Monaco. Photograph: Ellie Hoad/ProSports/Rex/Shutterstock

Renault took over the team in 2016 and at the car launch in February Abiteboul emphasised their relatively modest targets. “We have had a nice and steady progression and I don’t want to see anything that kills that,” he said. “More progress in the championship will take a bit longer. We are humble and professional enough to recognise that. But it is important to get some glimpses that our ambitions are correct.”

For Abiteboul and Ricciardo, they badly need to see some of those ambitions manifested successfully in the next two races, Canada and France. Renault believed their engine had made the expected step forward over the winter in terms of power. However, as well as MGU-K issues this year, Abiteboul revealed in Monaco they had a serious conrod problem. The component that connects the crankshaft to the piston failed on Nico Hülkenberg’s car in Bahrain. Since then they have had to run their engines at below full power.

They took a new specification engine to Spain, where it was run-in to ensure the failure would not be repeated. They ran it again in Monaco, turned up even further. Ricciardo and Hülkenberg noticed the difference.

Abiteboul believes the engine is now at the same level as Ferrari and Mercedes in race pace and just behind Ferrari in qualifying. This is difficult to see since they no longer have a competitive Red Bull using it, but they should at least be able to make a significant step against their midfield competitors.

In Montreal next week, with the engine up to full whack, it should be visible. At the following round in France the team are expecting a raft of aerodynamic upgrades to further their cause. It is their home race, failure will not be a pretty sight.

Their ambition cannot be faulted, nor can the steady, calculated, yet cost-effective way they are pursuing it as emphasised by Alain Prost last year when he noted: “We are not going to spend money unless we know that it is worth it.”

They have been investing, as a works team must if it is to challenge, having almost built an entire new facility at Enstone, Oxfordshire and at Renault’s Viry-Châtillon factory. Their workforce is believed to have increased from 400 to 700 since 2016.

These are the measures that Ricciardo found so persuasive. He knew it would take time, but seeing some real improvement at the next two rounds feels like a make or break moment for Renault this season.

Referring to Red Bull in February, Ricciardo said: “We are still on a different journey, but I don’t want to settle for fourth forever.”

Renault have the experience, the set-up and the ability. In the interest of a more competitive F1 making it to fourth is the very least they must do and, indeed, may decide whether their driver’s smile will remain or comes to take on the air of a strained rictus grin.