GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's latest midterm election update shows the Democratic party continuing to hold a strong lead over Republicans among registered voters, according to an April 28-30 USA Today/Gallup poll. For the first time since 1992, a majority of registered voters say that most members of Congress do not deserve re-election. While most registered voters think their own member of Congress deserves re-election, the percentage saying this is the lowest Gallup has measured since 1994. Democrats also report an unusually high level of enthusiasm about voting in a midterm election. Most Americans believe that the Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives after the elections this fall.

Congressional Vote Intentions



Democrats lead Republicans 54% to 39% among registered voters in Gallup's generic congressional ballot. The Democratic lead has been in double digits since late February and early March. Historically, the generic ballot has proven to be an accurate predictor of the overall U.S. House when asked just prior to past midterm elections.

The current Democratic advantage is mostly due to strong support among independents for Democratic candidates. Independent registered voters show a decided preference for the Democratic House candidate in their district, 53% to 29%. The Democrats' cause is aided to a lesser extent by their slight advantage in maintaining party loyalty, as 95% of Democratic registered voters and 89% of Republican registered voters are supporting their own party's candidates for Congress.

The registered voter figure gives an estimate of the vote if all registered voters turned out in the election. Turnout is generally low in midterm elections, and Republicans usually have a significant advantage in turnout over Democrats. Even so, comparison with past Gallup data on the generic ballot shows a Democratic lead of double digits among registered voters does indicate a strong relative positioning for the Democrats on this measure.

To get a sense of how turnout might affect the results, Gallup looked at a smaller group of registered voters termed "regular voters." Regular voters are registered voters who say they "always vote" and indicate they voted in the last midterm election. This group represents about half of the total sample and a closer approximation of actual turnout than the registered voter number. Even among this more limited group, Democrats maintain a solid lead of 53% to 44%. In the previous poll, conducted April 7-9, Democrats led Republicans 51% to 44% among regular voters.

It is difficult to say what the current Democratic edge can predict about the election this fall. Democrats have not had a lead as large as the current 15-percentage point edge among registered voters since the Republicans took control of Congress in 1995. The last time Democrats had a lead of 15 points or greater in a midterm election year was in 1982, when they gained 26 seats in the fall.

Prior to that, Democrats held leads of the current size or larger in years in which they gained seats (1958, 1970 and 1974) and in years in which they lost seats (1966 and 1978). However, the conditions that existed in 1966 and 1978 are unlike the current conditions. In those years, Democrats occupied the White House, while in 1958, 1970, and 1974 Republicans did. The historical pattern has been that the party controlling the White House is the one that typically loses seats in midterm elections. Also, Democrats had a better than two-to-one advantage in House seats over the Republicans entering the 1966 and 1978 midterms, making the prospect of additional gains unlikely.

Spring Generic Ballot Leads and Election Outcomes,

Midterm Election Years Midterm election year Democratic lead among registered voters in the spring Largest Democratic lead during campaign Net change in Democratic House seats 2006 +15 +16 (Mar.) TBD 2002 +4 +9 (Oct.) -3 1998 +5 +13 (Sept.) +5 1994 +6 +6 (June) -53 1990 +5 +10 (Oct.) +9 1986 +10 +13 (July) +5 1982 +15 +20 (Feb., April) +26 1978 +26 +29 (Feb.) -11 1974 +26 +32 (July) +43 1970 +12 +14 (Jan., Oct.) +12 1966 +16 +18 (July) -47 1962 +24 +24 (May) -4 1958 +8 +23 (Sept.) +49

Voter Revolt Against Incumbents?

Recent Gallup data show that Americans currently hold members of Congress in low esteem. The institution's approval rating (23%) is the lowest in over a decade and is approaching historic lows. The current poll finds 77% of Americans saying most members of Congress are "out of touch with average Americans," and 65% saying that most members are "focused on the needs of special interests" over the needs of their constituents.

The majority party Republicans could find some solace in the fact that even when Americans have been critical of Congress, most incumbent members are re-elected. Recent redistricting after the 2000 census may have helped to insulate incumbents from partisan forces even more so than in the past. Nevertheless, the public's desire to change the composition of Congress is now the strongest it has been since the term limits movements of the early 1990s.

The current poll finds a majority of registered voters (53%) saying that most members of Congress do not deserve re-election, the first time that level has been reached since 1992. Currently, just 38% think most members deserve to be re-elected.

As is typically the case, Americans are much more willing to say their own member of Congress deserves re-election, which may explain to some degree the high success rate of incumbents seeking re-election. However, the current 59% total of registered voters who says their own member deserves re-election is the lowest since 1994. That year, Republicans gained a net of 54 seats in the House of Representatives to take control of that institution for the first time since the 1950s.

The Political Landscape

As these results make clear, the current environment strongly favors the Democrats. Factors known to be related to midterm election outcomes, such as presidential job approval, economic perceptions, satisfaction with the state of the nation, and overall views of Congress are decidedly negative at a time when Republicans have partisan control of both elected branches of government. These are reflected in the fact that nearly half of Republicans, 46%, say they are "less enthusiastic about voting than usual," while 38% say they are more enthusiastic.

In contrast, 50% of Democrats say they are more enthusiastic about voting and just 37% are less enthusiastic. Gallup has never before found that large of a percentage of either party saying they are "more enthusiastic about voting" in a midterm election year.

Gallup analysis has shown that the enthusiasm measure does relate to election outcomes, with the party having the advantage tending to do better in the fall.

Indeed, the poll finds that Americans are more likely to say that the Democrats will win partisan control of the U.S. House following this year's election (52%) than to say that Republicans will maintain it (39%). As one might expect, these views are strongly related to one's vote intention -- most Republican voters think Republicans will win, and most Democrats think the Democrats will prevail.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,011 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 28-30, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For the sample of 924 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For the sample of 531 "regular voters," the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.