THE GUARDIAN today is running a big story on the woes airlines will face after Brexit. According to the paper, European carriers have been told in private meetings with European Union officials not to expect the aviation industry to be given special treatment in negotiations over Britain leaving the union. That would mean that Britain will probably fall out of the European single aviation market, the agreement that allows any airline in the region to fly whatever route it pleases. That deregulation has brought about nothing less than a revolution for European travellers, who can now fly to hundreds of destinations across the continent, often for peanuts.

Unless Britain can negotiate a comprehensive new air agreement, leaving the market will mean that airlines headquartered in Britain, such as easyJet, will have to set up a separate European arm if they want to continue to operate routes within the remaining 27 EU countries. Rules on foreign ownership, which state that to fly within the union airlines must be majority EU owned, will also affect firms that are not based in Britain but have a high proportion of British shareholders. Ryanair, for example, which is headquartered in Dublin, may have to force some British shareholders to sell to counterparts in EU countries. IAG, the London-based airline group that houses both British Airways and big EU27 carriers such as Iberia, has declared its structure Brexit-proof.

The Guardian’s prognosis is bleak. It is not hopeful that a deal to remain part of Europe’s open skies will be reached, partly because carriers across the channel sniff a commercial opportunity to fill any gaps British airlines leave and have been quietly lobbying the EU. Meanwhile David Davis, the British minister in charge of Brexit, admitted last week that it is likely that the country would exit the single aviation market. Although some non-EU countries, including Norway, are signatories to the deal, the fact that disputes are resolved in the European Court of Justice may well prove too high a price for British eurosceptics who see freeing the country from the jurisdiction of the ECJ as a red line in Brexit negotiations.

The result is that airlines will probably be forced to move jobs out of Britain. Domestic flights within Britain which are operated by EU27 carriers (particularly Ryanair) could also be sacrificed. In the worst case, the EU could regulate the number of flights allowed between it and the UK. If that were to happen, and were Britain to retaliate-in-kind, the result would be less connectivity, which would affect businesses horribly.

That scenario is unlikely. Still, it is a depressing state of affairs. Britain should be particularly worried as, when the poker game starts, the EU will hold the better cards. According to ACI Europe, an airport association, currently more than half of the passengers handled by British airports are flying to or from the rest of the EU, while just 1 in 10 passengers handled by EU27 airports are flying to or from Britain. Furthermore, calculates ACI, air travel to the rest of the EU supports 270,000 British jobs and is associated with €15.4bn ($16.6bn) of the country’s GDP. (The equivalent figures for the EU27 are comparable in absolute terms, but as a proportion of the total they are much less significant because the rest of Europe is a much bigger market.)

Perhaps things are not quite as bleak as is being suggested. It is true that some airlines on the continent would be happy to have British competition stymied. But the interests of such carriers are far less important than those of the wider tourist industry. British tourists make up easily the highest proportion of visitors to Spain and Ireland and the second highest to France (after Germans). In other words, millions of EU27 jobs depend on vacationing Brits. It will be a brave minister who would jeopardise that by making travel between Britain and the EU27 more difficult. And then there is Heathrow. The continent’s busiest airport is the gateway for many Europeans travelling to long-haul destinations: a loss of air connectivity would not only be a problem for British business.

Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister, says that she plans to invoke Article 50, which sets Brexit in motion, on March 29th. Until the negotiations start, it is difficult to judge whether the hard talk by either side is humbug or an intractable position. Let us hope it is the former. Membership of the single aviation area has brought huge benefits; leaving it without securing a comparable agreement would hurt both sides. It is time for some common sense.