Pollsters say Democrats will have to reckon with Obama's dwindling support from women. Obama's standing with women hurts Senate Dems

Female voters powered President Barack Obama’s victory over Mitt Romney in 2012, as Democrats leaned heavily on social issues to rally single women and suburban moms to the polls.

But with two weeks until Election Day, the president’s diminished standing with women is quickly becoming one of the biggest liabilities facing Democrats as they struggle to hang onto the Senate majority.


In battleground states across the country, Obama is underwater with female voters — especially women unaffiliated with a political party — and it’s making it harder for Democrats to take advantage of the gender gap, according to public polling and Democratic strategists.

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Already Democrats are taking a beating from men, who back Republicans over Democrats by double digits in most of the key Senate races. But to overcome that deficit, Democrats need to win over female voters by a wider margin in battleground states like Colorado, Iowa, Alaska, North Carolina and New Hampshire. That task that will be the primary focus of Democratic campaigns as they prepare an intensive voter-turnout operation.

First, they must overcome the Obama factor. After defeating Mitt Romney by 11 points among women in 2012, the president has seen his approval rating drop sharply with females, particularly in the battleground states.

In Alaska, for instance, Obama lost soundly in 2008 and 2012. But he’s only gone downhill from there, especially among female voters, only 29 percent of whom give him high marks. Obama’s unpopularity could be having a spillover effect on Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), who is fighting for his political life against Republican Dan Sullivan. In one recent CNN/ORC poll of likely voters, Begich was losing women to Sullivan by 7 points.

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Begich disputes the validity of the poll, but he knows full well that female voters will be a key part of his equation if he manages to pull off a win next month. So he’s hammering home Sullivan’s opposition to abortion rights and pay equity legislation and slams his views on birth control and a version of the Violence Against Women Act. In an interview, Begich said voters will see “a clear contrast” in the coming two weeks when the candidates square off for six more debates before Election Day.

While he acknowledged Obama’s poor standing among Alaska women remains a “big piece” of the hurdle he needs to clear, he said he has been making the case to voters that the president will soon be gone.

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“I think people are disappointed with the president and frustrated,” Begich said. “I’m making sure people understand that if you are mad at Obama, he will be gone in two. If you care about Alaska, I’m here for six. When I tell people that, I remind them, they get it.”

It’s not just Alaska.

According to a Quinnipiac poll this week, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall was trailing by 19 points to his GOP challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner, among male voters. In that poll and a new CNN poll, the Republican was down only 9 points among women. In 2010, when Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet barely beat GOP candidate Ken Buck, the Democrat won female voters by 17 points and lost men by 10, according to exit polls. Most Democrats believe Udall needs a similar advantage to win.

But the president’s sharp decline in Colorado has made life much harder for Udall. The CNN poll showed 60 percent of white women disapproving of Obama’s job performance — and 56 percent of nonwhite women also holding negative views. Just two years ago, Obama outperformed Romney in Colorado, 51-49 percent, among female voters, according to exit polls, as the president carried the state.

Udall has been running a campaign heavily focused on Gardner’s opposition to abortion rights, hoping to disqualify his GOP opponent in the eyes of suburban women and independent female voters.

And as part of his focus on female voters, Udall is launching a 2,000-mile bus tour through two dozen towns, with one day of the tour featuring prominent women, including Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Planned Parenthood Action Fund President Cecile Richard and the wives of Bennet, Rep. Ed Perlmutter and Udall. That day, they will hit the state’s most populous cities, including Denver, Boulder and Fort Collins, areas where they need a big turnout. Hillary Clinton will stump with the senator in the Denver suburbs on Tuesday.

In Kentucky, where Obama lost 116 of 120 counties in 2012, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has run about even with female voters, according to several polls, while holding a double-digit advantage among men. In recent Fox News and CNN polls, for instance, McConnell was down just 2 points and 3 points, respectively, among female voters to Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, helping him maintain an advantage in the closely watched race.

In New Hampshire, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen led Scott Brown by 8 points among female voters, according to a New England College poll, with nearly half of female voters disapproving of Obama’s performance in office. By comparison, Obama won female voters 58-42 percent against Romney two years ago in New Hampshire.

In North Carolina, a recent survey USA poll showed Sen. Kay Hagan up 16 points among female voters and down 12 points among men, a race that remains a dead heat. But in Iowa, where Democrats are trailing narrowly, Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst holds an 18-point advantage among men, while Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley is up 13 points among women, according to a Quinnipiac poll.

In Iowa, much like the other states, Obama is shedding support among women. For instance, 53 percent of women viewed Obama unfavorably, according to a recent Des Moines Register poll, even though Obama won 59 percent of the female vote in 2012.

It’s a problem pollsters say Democrats will have to reckon with.

“He’s not doing as badly [with women] as he is among men, but it’s hardly anything to write home about,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres. “Which is why many of these Democratic candidates are still struggling.”

It’s also why Democrats are campaigning heavily on women’s issues. Begich and outside Democratic groups have launched ads blasting Sullivan on abortion rights and for opposing funding for Planned Parenthood.

“He wants to reach into women’s lives and control them,” Begich said of Sullivan in the interview. “And that does not sit well, especially in a state like ours when it has a libertarian streak or an anti-government streak when it comes to personal decisions and privacy.”

Sullivan, the former Alaska attorney general, dismisses the attacks. His campaign argues that the GOP candidate has done well with women by promoting local issues that resonate with them, such as combating domestic abuse in rural villages. In Sullivan’s ads, he often features women, including his wife and three daughters, Condoleezza Rice and senior Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

“Mark Begich continues to run the same tired ‘war on women’ campaign straight out of Harry Reid’s playbook, but he can’t run from his failed record in Washington, D.C.,” said Thomas Reiker, a spokesman for Sullivan.