Fears that Russian-backed troops would come swarming over the eastern horizon have all but vanished. Now, if anything, there is widespread doubt here and in Kiev, the capital, that the separatists have anywhere near the numbers needed for such an attack.

“There are many fewer Russian troops in the separatist zone than during the heavy fighting early this year,” said Yaroslav Chepurniy, a spokesman for Ukrainian military forces in the conflict area. “And, according to our intelligence, even fewer of them are regular Russian troops. They are mostly mercenaries.”

So the war has devolved into a low-level skirmish of nightly shelling on the city’s edges, barely affecting daily life. Shops are open and full of goods. Parks and beaches are crowded on warm days. Reservations at the best seaside restaurants can be difficult on the weekend.

“There was a panic a year ago, because there was a real threat,” said Andrei Fedoy, the secretary of the City Council and a lifelong Mariupol resident. “A lot of people left the city. Now, people have calmed down and a lot of them have come back. People are just tired of being afraid.”

Image A statue of Lenin that was removed from public display in Mariupol. Credit... Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times

Mariupol, founded in 1778 on the site of an old Cossack encampment and settled initially by Greek refugees, grew into an industrial powerhouse during the decades it was part of the Soviet Union, built on steel and metallurgy.

When the separatists seized much of the surrounding Donbas region, including the provincial capital of Donetsk, Mariupol was named the temporary capital. In May of last year, the city was briefly seized by the separatists, and then retaken in June.