“REMAIN” LEADS BY 7 POINTS

“Remain” leads “Leave” by seven points according to the latest ComRes poll for ITV News (fieldwork conducted over the weekend, before the events in Brussels). The seven point lead is the lowest recorded in a ComRes telephone poll since the General Election, however, it is in line with the eight point lead in the February ComRes / ITV News poll (although another ComRes poll for the Daily Mail had shown the Remain lead rising to 12 points after David Cameron had agreed the deal in Brussels).

In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

The poll also finds that David Cameron is the most important politician in deciding how people will vote at the referendum. One in three (34%) Britons say the Prime Minister will be important in deciding how they vote. Boris Johnson is named by 29% while one in four (24%) say Jeremy Corbyn will be important to them.

Leaving the EU seen is seen by more Britons as a risk than remaining in the EU. Seven in ten (69%) say that Britain leaving the European Union is a risk to the British economy, compared to 52% that say remaining is a risk. Nearly twice as many Britons say leaving is a big risk to the economy than say the same of remaining in the EU (30% and 17% respectively).

Findings in Detail

If a referendum were held tomorrow on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), how would you vote on the following question? “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?”

GB adults Turnout weighted Remain 48% (-1) 52% Leave 41% (-1) 38% Don’t Know 11% (+1) 10%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002). Changes since the last ComRes telephone poll for ITV News (11-14 Feb).

The seven point lead for Remain compares to an eight point lead seen in the last ITV News poll and a twelve point lead in the most recent ComRes telephone poll.

The 14 point lead for Remain seen when the results are turnout weighted is largely due to the large 33 point lead (63% to 30%) it has among the most affluent AB social grade voters – who are the group most likely to vote at General Elections.

Have you definitely decided which way you will vote at the referendum or may you still change your mind?

% Definitely decided 60% May change mind 39% Don’t Know 1%

Base: GB adults who express a voting intention preference (n=893).

Roughly the same proportion of Remain and Leave voters say they may still change their mind (38% and 40% respectively).

Who of the following, if any, will be important to you in deciding how you will vote at the upcoming referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union?

All David Cameron 34% Boris Johnson 29% Jeremy Corbyn 24% Nigel Farage 18% Nicola Sturgeon 15% Michael Gove 13% Other 1% None 31% Don’t now 2%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002).

Among 2015 Conservative voters 55% say David Cameron will be important to them while 44% say Boris Johnson will be important.

Among 2015 Labour voters, Jeremy Corbyn is more important than the other politicians tested (37%).

Nigel Farage’s appeal extends more to men than women, with 22% of men saying the UKIP leader will be important to their decision making compared with 13% of women.

How much of a risk, if any, do you think there is to the British economy if…

Britain leaves the European Union Britain remains in the European Union Big risk 30% 17% Slight risk 39% 35% Hardly any risk 14% 25% No risk at all 12% 17% Don’t know 5% 5%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002).