They say the road to Delhi goes through Lucknow. And it will not be any different in 2019.

By joining hands, arch rivals Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) have set themselves up for a mouth-watering contest against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

As per C-Voter, a well-known survey agency in India and overseas, 47 out of 80 parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh could prove to be the bane of BJP in the elections. In these 47 constituencies, the Muslim-Yadav-Dalit (MYD) population is higher than 50 per cent. C-Voter data suggests that every parliamentary constituency (PC) in UP has more than 40 per cent MYD population.

The Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party decided to contest on 38 and 37 seats respectively, leaving three seats for their smaller partner, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). The trio have agreed to not field any candidate from the Congress family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

The success of the BSP-SP combine will squarely depend on the caste arithmetic their coming together brings to the table. Or so does the C-Voter data says.

MYD EQUATION

Key to any party’s success in the hinterland is getting the caste arithmetic right. Caste is a key variable towards understanding Indian electoral politics and since the early 1990s, electoral fortunes in northern India, especially in UP and Bihar, have been based on the caste math.

One of the major reasons for the SP-BSP alliance is the Muslim-Yadav-Dalit (MYD) combination. According to the 2011 Census in UP, Muslims constitute 19 per cent of the total population, while Dalits constitute 21 per cent. While the census does not give caste-wise data for Other Backward Castes (OBC) and General categories, many analysts have counted the Yadav population in UP to stand at around 9-10 per cent. The total population of all three (MYD) communities constitutes nearly half of the total population of Uttar Pradesh.

The BSP claims Dalit support, while the Samajwadi Party has had a strong Yadav and Muslim support base for the past two decades. This makes the erstwhile foes confident of crashing the Narendra Modi juggernaut.

C-Voter did a parliamentary seat-wise calculation of MYD numbers. Their data paints a challenging picture for the BJP.

As per C-Voter, every parliamentary constituency (PC) in UP has more than 40 per cent MYD population.

Out of Uttar Pradesh's 80 parliamentary seats, 10 have more than 60 per cent MYD population. These include Azamgarh, Ghosi, Domariyaganj, Firozabad, Jaunpur, Ambedkar Nagar, Bhadohi, Bijnor, Mohanlalganj and Sitapur.

Azamgarh, from where Samajwadi party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav was elected member of Parliament in 2014, has the highest MYD population of 68.3 per cent. Mulayam secured 3,40,306 votes the last time, which accounted for 35.43 per cent of the total votes polled.

The BSP candidate, Shah Alam, who then came a close third in the contest, secured 27.75 per cent of the total votes. A likely combination of the two vote shares in 2019 would mean a win for the 'Mahagatbandhan' candidate by 63.18 per cent votes.

Going further, in 37 PCs, the MYD population is between 50 to 60 per cent. This includes high profile constituencies like Amethi, Raebareli and Mainpuri, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s home bastion from where he will contest the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In Mainpuri, the MYD population is 57.2 per cent.

In the rest of the 33 PCs, the MYD population is between 40 to 50 per cent, which includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s seat, Varanasi.

In the chart below, we have divided these parliamentary constituencies region-wise and then, have looked at the density of the MYD population therein. The distribution has been executed by the Lokniti-CSDS data unit, which is a premier research institute in India.

The regional distribution of the PCs indicates that the East and Awadh regions of Uttar Pradesh have more MYD population than other regions. Out of 47 PCs which have more than 50 per cent MYD population, Awadh and East regions account for 30 PCs.

Chart 1: Region-wise number of PCs in Uttar Pradesh and the distribution of Muslim-Yadav-Dalit (MYD) Population

2014 OUTCOME AND THE ENIGMA OF 2019

The 2014 general election delivered a historic verdict in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The NDA won 73 seats (BJP won 71 seats, along with two seats of ally Apna Dal) which was the highest ever for any party in last three decades. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party won only five seats, while the BSP couldn't even open its account.

However, what was noteworthy, was that despite the dismal performance, the BSP and the Samajwadi Party secured 20 per cent and 22.5 per cent vote share respectively. Their combined vote share in 2014 was almost equivalent to the NDA's. This is one of the reasons the two parties chose to forge a combined force against the BJP in 2019.

In the chart below, we have analysed the 2014 performance of these parties and identified their strength on the basis on the MYD equation. We have added the 2014 votes of the Samajwadi Party and the BSP and have looked at on how many seats the NDA was ahead and on how many the SP-BSP alliance took a lead, and whether their performance had any correlation with the MYD equation.

What we found here was that despite the landslide victory of BJP in 2014, the combined vote share of the SP-BSP alliance was more in 41 PCs. Interestingly in all the 10 PCs where the MYD population was more than 60 per cent, the combined vote share of the SP-BSP alliance was more.

Even in those PCs where the MYD population is between 50 to 60 per cent, the SP-BSP alliance was ahead in 21 PCs and NDA led in 14 PCs. But these trends show a reverse trend in those PCs where the MYD population is between 40 to 50 per cent. Out of these 33 PCs, NDA won the maximum with 23 PCs while the SP-BSP alliance could clinch only 10 PCs.

Chart 2: Who was ahead in 2014: PC wise vote share of NDA, BSP+SP combined and INC

From the above data and subsequent analysis, it is clear that the combination of Muslims, Yadavs and Dalits will be a key determining factor in the electoral outcome for the state of Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming polls.