2019-12-20 2018-06-08 Analysis for oil, gold and silver for 08.06.2018 Alex Rodionov 2019-12-202018-06-08

Oil short-term trend reversed upwards through the key resistance [65.57 – 65.44] breakout

WTI

At the end of the week, oil price is being corrected to the middle-term downtrend. The key resistance is at [66.97 – 66.72]. After the zone is reached and a reversal pattern emerges, I recommend selling the instrument, targeting TZ 4 [62.84 – 62.59].

In the chart with additional margin zones, we see that the short-term trend reversed upwards. Intermediary Zone [65.57 – 65.44] was broken out yesterday. Now, we focus on looking for buys in the strong support zones (Additional Zone, Intermediary Zone) with the target at 66.72.

I recommend going long primarily according to reversal patterns in the shorter timeframes.

We shall be selling again if the key support is broken out and the price is consolidated below. If so, the sell target will be in the lower Target Zone [63.58 – 63.33].

Today's trading tips for WTI:

Buy according to the pattern in Additional Zone [65.50 – 65.43]. TakeProfit: Target Zone [66.97 – 66.72]. StopLoss: according to the pattern rules. Buy according to the pattern in Intermediary Zone [64.86 – 64.73]. TakeProfit: Target Zone [66.97 – 66.72]. StopLoss: according to the pattern rules.

XAUUSD

Gold trend hasn’t changed in the longer timeframe.

The short-term trend is still upward. The key support has been tested more than once, but the buyer are holding it, and so, we are holding on purchases.

I recommended holding on buys with small volume, as there is the strong resistance [1297.9 – 1297.1] in the price’s way up. If it is broken out, you can increase trading volume, adding more buys with a stop beyond the local low.

If the price is going down and breaks through Intermediary Zone [1292.3 – 1290.7], the main buy pattern won’t work; instead of buying, we’ll start looking for sells down to the lower Target Zone [1276.8 – 1273.7] starting from next week.

Today's trading tips for XAUUSD:

Don’t close buys in Intermediary Zone [1292.3 – 1290.7]. TakeProfit: Target Zone [1316.2 – 1313.1]. StopLoss: according to the pattern rules.

XAGUSD

Silver price renewed May’s high and again tested the key resistance to the middle-term downtrend yesterday. The zone was held, so, following this false breakout, we can again look for sells, targeting Target Zone 2 [15.86 – 15.79].

Let’s analyze the short-term trend.

The priority buy pattern was worked out at yesterday’s trading session. The trading recommendations have paid off. The target in Target Zone [16.93 – 16.85] was reached.

After the target had been reached, traders closed large purchases. Besides, sell positions were opened, which drew they price down. Just on one momentum, traders drew the price to Additional Zone [16.67 – 16.65], and now, sellers are trying to break the zone through.

The most likely scenario suggests that the key support to the local uptrend at [16.49 – 16.45] should be reached. I don’t recommend buying from the zone right away, you’d better wait for a buy pattern. The target will be yesterday’s high.

We won’t sell silver until the US session closes below level 16.45. If so, the local trend will change, and the target will be the lower TZ [16.13 – 16.05].

Today's trading tips for XAGUSD:

Buy according to the pattern if the price returns beyond Additional Zone [16.67 – 16.65]. TakeProfit: Target Zone [16.93 – 16.85]. StopLoss: according to the pattern rules. Buy according to the pattern in Intermediary Zone [16.49 – 16.45]. TakeProfit: Target Zone [16.93 – 16.85].

IZ - Intermediary Zone: responsible for the price momentum reversing.

TZ - Target Zone: a zone that is 75% likely to be reached after IZ breakout.

GZ - Gold Zone: zone in the medium-term momentum.

SZ - Stop Zone: point of Stop Loss setting, selected statistically.

All zones are calculated based on the average daily price of the instrument and margin requirements of the futures.

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