Hillary's big-money dilemma

THE CLOCK: 557 days until Election Day 2016...

HILLARY’S BIG-MONEY DILEMMA: POLITICO’s Glenn Thrush and Anna Palmer report: There’s a growing realization inside HILLARY CLINTON’s Brooklyn headquarters and among the wider circle of Democratic operatives that coming up with the requisite $1 billion to $2.5 billion in campaign and super PAC cash for the 2016 campaign will be a lot tougher than anticipated — and demands a more aggressive approach to out-of-the-gate fundraising.


The pace of donations to Clinton’s three-week-old campaign is surpassing forecasts — but the candidate herself wants to accelerate the timetable and just added several new New York City fundraisers to her May schedule, people close to Clinton tell POLITICO.

Democratic operatives and fundraisers in contact with the campaign cite an array of concerns about the deliberately slow ramp-up to date. There are worries about the willingness of big progressive donors to commit to Clinton before the general election and the campaign’s focus on mid-sized donations. The lack of high-impact hires on the finance team has raised eyebrows. Then there is the general unease about the ability of the party’s pro-Clinton super PAC to compete with Republican counterparts that will raise hundreds of millions in mega-contributions.

Over it all looms a larger problem — the optics. Barack Obama’s huge haul in the first half of 2007 overshadowed Clinton’s solid fundraising numbers and shattered her façade of inevitability. The 2016 campaign’s decision to solicit only primary election contributions fits the campaign’s work-for-every-vote ethos, but it’s left some donors reluctant to contribute to a race that seems so one-sided already. That means her first campaign finance report — likely due in late July — will fall far short of JEB BUSH, who is expected to raise a jarring $100 million in just the first three months of his unofficial campaign.

“The expectations have always been too high, it’s Hillary so everybody expects her to just rake in the money and that was never going to happen,” said a veteran Democratic fundraiser who raised $1 million for Obama but is adopting a wait-and-see-approach before helping out Clinton. “My feeling is that 2015 will be hard, but that things will pick up once we get into 2016. It’s not a bad situation, but people have to realize we’re in for a long, slow process.”

Full story to post tonight on POLITICO.

TRAIL MIX: A look at what's poppin' on the campaign trail

Good Friday afternoon, and welcome to The 2016 BLAST. Your guides for the campaign are Jonathan Topaz ( @JonathanTopaz) and Ben Schreckinger ( @schreckreports). Send tips, ideas and gripes to [email protected] and [email protected].

THE DAILY CLINTON

PALACE INTRIGUE: Washington Post: “Guy Cecil, a top Democratic strategist with close ties to HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, is poised to take on a major leadership role at the pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA Action, a move designed to send an unequivocal signal that Clinton wants donors to rally around the independent group. Cecil, a seasoned field operative who served as political director of Clinton’s 2008 presidential bid, is in final talks to join the organization, a move that would diminish the role of board co-chair Jim Messina, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.” http://wapo.st/1E2HPuc

IF YOU WERE WONDERING: Bloomberg: “Why Larry Flynt Is Endorsing HILLARY CLINTON” http://bloom.bg/1Q6dDH5

BERNIE, THE DAY AFTER

BERNIE’S 24-HOUR HAUL: By the numbers, per a campaign release: More than $1.5 million raised, 35,000 donors, $43.54 average donation.

MARCO RUBIO’S FIRST 24 HOURS: $1.25 million

RAND PAUL’S FIRST 24 HOURS: Around $1 million

TED CRUZ’S FIRST 24 HOURS: Around $1 million

SLIGHT COMPLICATION: WMUR: “ BERNIE SANDERS rejected the nomination of the Democratic Party twice when he ran for the U.S. Senate in Vermont, choosing instead to remain the political independent he has been throughout his career. That could be a problem for him when he arrives in Secretary of State Bill Gardner’s statehouse office later this year to register as a Democrat in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary. Could Sanders actually be kept off of the ballot?” http://bit.ly/1EBWaRL

NOT EFFECTIVE ENOUGH: Boston Globe: “ BERNIE SANDERS jumped into the 2016 presidential race Thursday, but the former Burlington mayor is missing the support of one key local ally: The current Burlington mayor. [Mayor Miro Weinberger said] he plans to back HILLARY CLINTON. ‘Bernie was one of the most effective mayors that Burlington ever had,’ Weinberger said. ‘I’m supporting Hillary because I think she’s the right person at the right time, and I think she’ll be a great president.’” bit.ly/1QUPncf

VERMONTERS FOR HILLARY: Former Gov. Madeleine Kunin http://bit.ly/1KAJPz9

THE CHRISTIE CHRONICLES

DRAGGED BACK IN: POLITICO’s Nick Gass and Adam Lerner report: “A former political ally of CHRIS CHRISTIE pleaded guilty on Friday and two other former officials were indicted for their alleged roles in the Bridgegate scandal that has cast a shadow over the New Jersey governor’s presidential ambitions. The U.S. attorney for New Jersey, Paul Fishman, did not implicate Christie directly in the alleged crime, adding that ‘based on the evidence that is currently available to us, we are not going to charge anybody else in this scheme’… The news offers potential relief for Christie as he considers a 2016 presidential bid, but does not end questions relating to the governor’s relationship with the alleged conspirators and the scheme.” politi.co/1JX6cxW

CHRISTIE RESPONDS VIA TWITTER:

@GovChristie Today's charges make clear that what I've said from day one is true.

@GovChristie I had no knowledge or involvement in the planning or execution of this act.

@GovChristie The moment I first learned of this unacceptable behavior I took action, firing staff believed to be accountable...(cont.)

@GovChristie …calling for an outside investigation and agreeing to fully cooperate with all appropriate investigations, which I have done.

@GovChristie Now 15 months later it is time to let the justice system do its job.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

UP IN FLAMES: James Hohmann reports in the POLITICO Caucus: “ MARTIN O’MALLEY’s political career, which started on the streets of Baltimore, may also end there: Half of Democratic insiders in the early states believe this week’s riots have hurt the former mayor’s already long-shot presidential hopes.”

MONEY QUOTE: “I really like and respect O’Malley, so it pains me to write that I think the Baltimore violence will essentially disqualify him as a viable presidential candidate for a broad swath of Americans.”

ALSO IN THIS WEEK’S POLITICO CAUCUS: RAND PAUL misplayed Baltimore; HILLARY CLINTON gets a pass on ’90s crime tough talk: politi.co/1GC4fnt

PRIMARY WITHIN THE PRIMARY: POLITICO’s James Hohmann: “[A] crucial battle is emerging in the 2016 presidential race between Marco Rubio and Scott Walker, competing to establish themselves as the party’s ‘bridge’ candidate who can appeal to both the establishment and grassroots activists.

JEB BURN: Bob Brownell, Polk County, Iowa, supervisor: “I don’t know how we characterize our opponent as a relic of the 20th century and then nominate a relic of the 20th century.” politi.co/1zxHowp

JEB’S CHARADE: Sun Sentinel editorial: “In December, JEB BUSH said he would ‘actively explore’ running for president. In five months, Bush has gone from actively exploring to actively exploiting what little remains of campaign finance regulation. By waiting, and waiting, and waiting, Bush can raise unlimited money for his affiliated Super PAC, called Right to Rise. If the man who criticized Hillary Clinton's secret emails wants to preserve credibility, he will end the pretense and declare his candidacy.” http://bit.ly/1E2issl

FLORIDA SCOOP: POLITICO’s Marc Caputo reports: “ MARCO RUBIO’s longtime friend and 2010 Senate campaign manager is about to be hired as a Hispanic-outreach adviser for the senator’s likely Republican 2016 rival, JEB BUSH.”

WHAT IT MEANS: “Jose Mallea’s hiring by Bush’s Right to Rise political committee is a one-two punch for the former governor: It underscores the depth of loyalty Florida Republicans have for Bush and shows his intense interest in turning out the Latino vote.” politi.co/1c1zCjS

RUBIO DOUBLES D.C. DRAW: ?POLITICO’s Anna Palmer reports: MARCO RUBIO cashed in at a fundraiser Thursday night at Republican power couple Wayne and Lea Berman's house. The event raised roughly $200,000 — more than double the organizers' goal. Spotted: Wiley Rein's Scott Weaver, Geoff Verhoff of Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld, Joe Wall of Goldman Sachs, and Peter Madigan of Peck Madigan & Jones, among others. Rubio has another lower-dollar D.C. donor event scheduled in mid-May.

HEADLINE OF THE WEEK: The Atlantic: “The Unpleasant Charisma of John Kasich”

TAKEAWAY: “The thing about John Kasich is, he’s kind of a jerk.” theatln.tc/1GK0izJ

UNION LEADER SMACKDOWN: Editorial: “Wonder of wonders, the New York Times claims to have discovered that presidential polls don’t amount to much at this stage of the game. Not that this will stop the Times, and many other news organizations, from scrambling like the Three Stooges chasing a discarded stogie in order to be first out with the next greatest and latest numbers…No matter, it is just comforting to know that someone in the Big Apple has this whole election business pretty much narrowed down. Sleep easy, New Hampshire rubes, the Times has your back.” bit.ly/1I367vq

TODAY IN AN EARLY VOTING STATE: “Smelly Cat — Closely-Divided New Hampshire Supreme Court Addresses Whether Cat Urine Is a Pollutant” bit.ly/1GCwW3V

NEXT NEWS CYCLE

TONIGHT: TED CRUZ, RICK PERRY, RICK SANTORUM and LINDSEY GRAHAM attend the South Carolina Republican Party’s Silver Elephant Dinner in Columbia. South Carolina kingmakers Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott will be in the house.

TOMORROW: JEB BUSH joins the other 2016-ers above at the South Carolina GOP convention. Video messages from MARCO RUBIO, MIKE HUCKABEE, BEN CARSON and CARLY FIORINA.

WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S: The newest presidential candidate, BERNIE SANDERS, is in New Hampshire for two events Saturday — he’ll speak at a Manchester house party in the morning and the state AFL-CIO convention in North Conway in the afternoon.

SUNDAY SHOWS: SANDERS is on “This Week,” JOHN KASICH on “Fox News Sunday.”

REMINDER: Three GOP hopefuls will announce their candidacy early next week — BEN CARSON (in Detroit) and CARLY FIORINA (online video) announce Monday, and MIKE HUCKABEE (in Arkansas) launches Tuesday.

BONUS: HUCKABEE’s pre-launch video: bit.ly/1HXMt2k

THE DAILY NUMBER

1.2 million: The number of BERNIE SANDERS-related interactions on Facebook yesterday. HILLARY CLINTON generated 10.1 million interactions on the day her campaign launched. MARCO RUBIO’s launch generated 1.3 million interactions.

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