In an exclusive poll by KVLY, KFYR and Strategic Research Associates of 650 likely voters in North Dakota conducted between October 12 - 19, 2018, Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leads incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp 56% to 40%, increasing his lead since Gray Television’s September poll, in which Cramer held a 10-point advantage. Heitkamp’s support appears relatively fixed. Only 5% of those supporting her say that they might change their mind, compared to 17% of Cramer supporters who say they may still change theirs.

Heitkamp is viewed favorably by 37% of North Dakota voters and unfavorably by 52%, with 7% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar. That unfavorable number represents a significant increase since September, when only 41% held an unfavorable view of her. Her challenger is viewed favorably by 53% of likely voters (a 7-point increase over September) and unfavorably by 38%, with 5% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar with him.

“Senator Heitkamp appears to have been hurt by her vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court as well as by subsequent campaign missteps widely covered in the media,” said James Henson, PhD, a partner in Strategic Research Associates, LLC, the research firm that conducted the poll for Gray Television. The U.S. Senate voted on Kavanaugh’s confirmation in the period between the two polls.

In the race for North Dakota’s seat in Congress, Republican Kelly Armstrong leads Democrat Mac Schneider 56% to 35%, with 9% undecided.

Forty-five percent hold a favorable view of Armstrong while 16% hold an unfavorable view, with 20% expressing a neutral opinion. Schneider is viewed favorably by 33% of likely voters, unfavorably by 17%, with the remainder either neutral (19%) or unfamiliar (31%) with the Democratic candidate.

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, based in Austin, Texas. A total of 650 likely voters were surveyed between October 12-19, 2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. The final results are weighted based on analysis of available electoral and commercial data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/- 3.84 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

About Strategic Research Associates:

The principals at Strategic Research Associates, LLC are James Henson, PhD and JoshuaBlank, PhD. They have played major roles in political polling and research at the state and national level for more than a decade. They are based in Austin, Texas, and can be contactedat SRATEXLLC@gmail.com.