(CNN) "It ain't over man," Joe Biden told a crowd of supporters rin South Carolina on Tuesday night. "We're just getting started."

That appears to be wishful thinking on the part of the former vice president of the United States -- particularly after finishing 4th in the Iowa caucuses on February 3 and following that up with a fifth-place finish in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Or, put another way: No one in Biden's current situation has won the Democratic nomination -- or even come close to winning it -- over the past four decades.

I went through every contested nomination fight over those 40 years -- there have been eight -- and found this: The eventual nominee finished either first or second in one (or both) of Iowa and New Hampshire. Every. Single. Time.

The closest analog to Biden's current position is 1992 when Bill Clinton finished 4th in Iowa then second in New Hampshire and went on to win the nomination. But that comparison breaks down for a number of reasons, most importantly: 1) Iowa wasn't seriously contested by any candidates in 1992 because of the presence of homestate Sen. Tom Harkin on the ballot and 2) Clinton's 2nd place finish in New Hampshire came after a series of allegations of marital infidelity that many people predicted would doom his campaign. Clinton's surprise runner-up showing allowed him to declare himself the "Comeback Kid" and use New Hampshire as a momentum springboard to the nomination.

And that's it. In each of the other seven races, the eventual nominee won either Iowa or New Hampshire. Check this out:

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