GOODYEAR, Ariz. — In reality, the soaring number of Tommy John surgeries the past two years has been much more about the increasing incidences of second ulnar collateral ligament repairs, or revisions. And the A’s have been right in the middle of that conversation with Jarrod Parker, the team’s onetime ace who is likely to undergo his third such procedure on April 1 in Los Angeles.

The A’s have not announced what kind of surgery Parker will have, but given his injury history — a second Tommy John surgery two years ago, two fractured elbows since — Dr. Neal ElAttrache is expected to have to replace the ligament if there is enough bone remaining to anchor it.

The only pitcher known to have returned to the big leagues after a third Tommy John surgery is Jonny Venters, but there are no records of any pitcher having come back from an avulsion fracture of the medial epicondyle — or even incurring a fractured medial epicondyle — at the major-league level. Several minor-leaguers have had such fractures and returned to pitching, but none have reached the big leagues.

According to Yahoo baseball columnist Jeff Passan in his new book, “The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports,” avulsion fractures of the medial epicondyle are most frequently seen in youth baseball players.

“It’s such a rare injury in adults,” Passan said by phone Friday.

The unusual nature of the injury, and the fact that it first occurred less than 14 months after Parker’s second Tommy John surgery, calls into question how quickly everyone involved — the team, surgeon Dr. James Andrews and Parker himself — tried to get him back to work as a starter, especially since most pitchers who successfully return from revisions come back as relievers.

Many experts believe second Tommy John surgeries require 18-24 months of recovery time, compared to the 12-18 months usually cited for first-time procedures, but there is much less data for revision surgeries.

Parker had surgery on March 24, 2014, and the first fracture happened during a rehab start on May 8, 2015 — less than 14 months later.

“So many guys, up until the last two or three years, had tried an accelerated recovery time,” Passan said. “Tim Hudson was back on the mound in 11 months (after a first Tommy John surgery) and there was a shift in thinking — but for every Tim Hudson, there are a dozen who fail and now we’re seeing more 15-month recoveries for the first time. Frankly, there shouldn’t be a rush. Everyone in baseball should understand that time is your friend — but you might give a player 15 months and he might still get hurt again.”

Parker’s second replacement ligament was a gracilis tendon from his hamstring, which requires larger holes to anchor it to the medial epicondyle area than does the palmaris tendon from the forearm, and there is the thought that larger holes might weaken the bone. And as Passan explains in detail in “The Arm,” the process of turning a tendon into a ligament alone takes “a minimum of 18 months,” he said.

It always was considered a long shot that Parker, 27, would make it back to the big leagues after last year’s fracture; he incurred the repeat fracture on March 10 when facing hitters for the first time since his May injury.

Now he faces even longer odds.

“I don’t ever count anyone out,” Passan said, citing Mike Lincoln and Denny Stark as pitchers who came back several years after revisions. “But with two Tommy Johns and two epicondyle fractures, it’s going to be really, really tough. The arm can take only so much.

“Can Jarrod get back to throwing a baseball? Yes. Can he get back to pitching in the major leagues? It’s going to be really difficult, not just the physical part, but the mental part, because four times now he’s thrown a pitch that just destroyed his arm. And that burrows into your head and it’s hard to shake.”

Parker has not spoken to the media since re-breaking his elbow.

Manager Bob Melvin has been in contact with Parker, saying Friday: “He’s tough. He’s trying to keep it pretty narrow in how far out he’s looking.”

Susan Slusser is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: sslusser@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @susanslusser

Indians 10, A’s 8

Notable: Starter Jesse Hahn allowed four hits, a walk and two runs in four innings; he said afterward that he had trouble finding his tempo early. He gave up two runs in the first. … The A’s got homers from catcher Josh Phegley, his second of the spring, and top prospect Franklin Barreto, his third, a three-run shot in the ninth. … A’s pitchers were torched for eight runs in an inning for the second time in two days; the damage Friday came off R.J. Alvarez (one-third of an inning, four earned runs) and Seth Frankoff (two-thirds, also four earned runs).

Quotable: “That was the fastball he had all last year when he was healthy. He was lighting it up. He was his old self.”

— Phegley on catching Hahn, reached 96 mph with his fastball. Hahn missed the second half of last season with a forearm strain.

Saturday’s games: Reds vs. A’s at Mesa, 1:05 p.m. Radio: 95.7 FM; A’s vs. Giants in Scottsdale, 1:05 p.m. Radio: 680 AM.

— Susan Slusser