Ventura County is at 'epicenter' of California's drought, expert says

Record heat. Too little rainfall. A shrinking lake.

None of those are new for Ventura County. Six years into a drought, unusually dry, warm weather has become routine.

California just wrapped up its warmest summer on record, breaking the previous record set just a year earlier.

“Now, the winter is exceptionally dry and warm, as well,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.

Southern California hit the 90s at Thanksgiving and again just a few weeks ago. Cities in Ventura County broke seven record highs in just the past the month.

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Meanwhile, rainfall totals sit far below normal, some as low as 11 to 15 percent for this time of the year.

“As a lot of people in Ventura and Santa Barbara County are acutely aware, the drought arguably never really ended in that part of the state,” Swain said.

A swath of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties was the last in the state to shake off the “extreme drought” label last February.

A few weeks later, after a big storm, the U.S. Drought Monitor upgraded conditions again — this time from severe to moderate drought.

Then last week, things took another turn. Researchers said severe drought conditions were back throughout Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, as well as much of Los Angeles.

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“It’s sort of the epicenter of this almost unbroken drought,” Swain said.

Why? It's partly just location. Ventura County sits far enough south that some storms just don’t make it down here.

And missing just a storm or two can make the difference between a dry and wet winter, Swain said.

“We have such a narrow rainy season, and we're so dependent on a handful of storms to collect most of the water,” Swain said.

‘A tough couple of years’

After a run of dry winters, rainfall was above average last year. The biggest boost, however, was in Northern California, which came close to setting records.

It definitely helped, Swain said, particularly in those areas tied into the State Water Project. They can take advantage of huge reservoirs that fill up during wet years.

“Those are big enough that they give multiyear carryovers,” he said. “Even with one or maybe even two dry years, most places, especially urban areas, are going to be OK.”

That’s good news for local areas that get the imported water, including from the Calleguas Municipal Water District. It serves about 75 percent of Ventura County’s population in communities from Simi Valley to Port Hueneme.

Healthy reservoirs will help Calleguas customers get through dry years, said Eric Bergh, the agency’s resources manager.

Meanwhile, the Ojai Valley and Ventura get no imported water.

Lake Casitas, a manmade reservoir that provides water to the Ojai Valley and parts of Ventura, depends on the watershed, rivers and creeks. While that can provide a buffer initially, the prolonged drought has taken a steep toll.

“It’s been a tough couple of years,” said Steve Wickstrum, general manager of the Casitas Municipal Water District, which manages the lake.

The wetter winter didn’t do a lot for this area, he said. It dropped about a year’s worth of water supply into the lake, but not enough to make up for several years of below-normal rainfall.

Read more: As Lake Casitas shrinks, a search is on for untapped water supplies

In 2005, the lake was full. A decade later, the water level had fallen to 50 percent for the first time since the 1970s. By this week, it had dropped to under 35 percent full.

“This is new territory for all of us,” Wickstrum said. “The level of the lake (now) is the same as we saw in the early 1960s as it was filling.”

The district has imposed mandatory water conservation regulations and initiated a water allocation program. It also began looking for new sources of water, from connecting to state water to drawing from new sources in nearby rock formations.

In the short term, however, the district depends on rainfall.

Casitas may have to institute more severe cuts to water allocations, depending on what happens in the next month and a half, Wickstrum said. If no rain materializes, it will likely reach that point.

But demand has dropped significantly, too, he said. Water use has dropped close to the levels needed.

A chance of rain

Swain said there’s no sign of a big turnaround in the weather just yet.

But there’s at least a small blip in the routine next week.

For weeks, he has been saying that there’s “absolutely nothing on the horizon as far as the eye can see” in terms of rainfall.

Now, “there’s at least a little bit of a hint that there might be some rain next week,” he said.

The National Weather Service forecast calls for warm, dry and windy weather over the weekend.

By Monday, however, there’s a chance of showers.

That chance will increase Tuesday and Wednesday, said weather specialist Stuart Seto.

While wetter conditions could hang around for most of the week, less than a half-inch of rainfall is expected, he said.

After that, it looks like things will go back dry and warm, at least in the short term.

“Our season is going to hinge on late February and March this year,” Swain said.

While February typically would be rainiest month, March can still be fairly wet, he said.

“It’s sort of the last month that we can see really substantial rainfall.”