Bruce Arena believes his team’s rocky qualification campaign for the 2018 World Cup may have been influenced by US immigration policy.

Speaking before Tuesday’s World Cup qualifier against Honduras in San Pedro Sula, Arena told reporters teams now want to beat the US to prove a point. “Our immigration policies are impacting people in Central America, right?” he said. “And there’s probably a little bit of anger over that. Then your national sport gets a chance to play the US. I’m sure that becomes very meaningful.”

By losing home games to Mexico in November and Costa Rica on Friday, the US need at least a draw against Honduras at Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano to stay on track for the third and final automatic berth in Concacaf qualifying. A loss would mean that even with wins in their final two games next month, the Americans could wind up in a playoff against an Asian team or miss next year’s tournament entirely.

Arena said that his team did not discuss politics but suggested his players did not support Donald Trump’s policies on immigration.

“Everyone is pretty supportive of free speech and not being restrictive of people coming to this country,” he said. “We’d be almost unanimous on that. But I’m not around these guys all the time and listening to them talk politics. I don’t think politics influences our national team program at all. I think we had a little bit of a discussion when we went to Mexico with the timing and all of that. But I don’t think it impacts anybody.”

Meanwhile, Tim Howard, the 38-year-old goalkeeper who started in the last two World Cups, cautioned against an all-out attacking approach for a US team that will be missing forward Jozy Altidore because of his one-game suspension.

“You also have to be careful of how much you push going forward and making it feel as if it’s doom and gloom,” Howard explained. “The more rah-rah you are sometimes in these situations, the more tense everybody gets.”

Temperatures in the low 90s with high humidity are forecast for the start at 3.30pm local time. That could make it feel like 110F in a stadium set in the Sula Valley near the Merendon Hills.

“It’s going to be a grind in every sense of the word. These are the days that are hard to explain to people who aren’t here,” US captain Michael Bradley said. “The idea of big games, the idea of everything on the line, that can’t faze us.”

The grass was long, moist and heavy for Monday’s practice, a sign play could slow Tuesday, when rain is possible. “Obviously the field we’re playing on tomorrow, nobody plays on fields like that. So that’s a bit challenging,” Arena said. “It’s a little spongy, too. Who knows what they’ll do in the next 24 hours with it?”

Mexico lead the six-nation final round with 17 points and have clinched a berth at the World Cup, and Costa Rica are second with 14. The US and Honduras have eight points each, with the US ahead on goal difference, plus-one to Honduras’ minus-seven.

The US conclude this stage of qualifying against Panama on 6 October in Orlando, Florida, and four days later at Trinidad and Tobago. The last time the US fate was uncertain going into the final qualifier was in 1989, when a 1-0 win at Trinidad put the Americans in the World Cup for the first time since 1950. That started a streak of seven appearances in a row.

“When I took the job in November and we had zero points after two games, we fully anticipated the fact that this would go a full 10 games in order to qualify, and that looks to be the case,” said Arena, who replaced Jurgen Klinsmann after a 4-0 wipeout at Costa Rica.

Altidore received a yellow card in the 71st minute of that Costa Rica match for running into Celso Borges, and a second yellow on Friday for pushing Johan Venegas in the 80th minute. That earned him an automatic suspension.

“It seems to me that the referees are refraining from issuing yellow cards because of that rule, which is, without going into a long debate, just a stupid rule,” Arena said.

Joel Aguilar of El Salvador will officiate on Tuesday. He worked the infamous Snow Classico, a World Cup qualifier four years ago in Colorado in which the US beat Costa Rica 1-0 in a snowstorm. Aguilar also was on the field for the Americans’ 1-1 draw at Mexico in a qualifier in June and for their win over Costa Rica in the semifinals of this year’s Gold Cup. “I don’t think the referee is going to favor the United States when we go on the road in World Cup qualifying in Concacaf,” Arena said.

Arena is likely to make lineup changes, but not as many as the seven in June. Goalkeeper Brad Guzan could replace Howard, whom Arena said is still not 100% following leg surgery in November.

Center backs Matt Besler and Omar Gonzalez, left back DaMarcus Beasley, midfielders Kellyn Acosta and Alejandro Bedoya, and forward Clint Dempsey are among the possible additions, while Europe-based Geoff Cameron, Tim Ream and Bobby Wood could move to the bench,

“There’s a big difference at this time of the year for the European players. They’re not that fit yet and they’re not used to these conditions,” Arena said.

Honduras, seeking their third straight World Cup appearance, lost 6-0 in March, the Americans’ first qualifier in Arena’s second stint. Christian Pulisic, the Americans’ star 18-year-old midfielder, had a goal and two assists in that match. He was denied by Costa Rica goalkeeper Keylor Navas on Friday and was repeatedly hacked by defenders.

“He’s fouled just about every time he touches the ball,’ Arena said. “The referee hasn’t protected him in a number of situations.”

Howard said Pulisic’s emergence has caused that kind of treatment. “He’s a marked man. He’s the golden boy for us,” he said. “Every time you see us play a qualifier he’s been getting kicked around.”