YouGov predicts Conservatives to remain the largest party

Leafy_Emerald’s party set to lead Liberal Democrats by just 3 seats.

YouGov’s projection of the GEX results provided to The Guardian.

YouGov has released its projection of the results of the General Election held across the country today following the close of polls at 10pm. Their exclusive prediction provided to the Guardian formed on the basis of recent opinion polling and campaigning across every seat suggests that Leafy_Emerald will narrowly hang on as the leader of the largest party in the new House Of Commons, leading TheNoHeart’s Liberal Democrats by just 3 seats.



YouGov’s analysis suggests that the so-called Liberty Bloc (Liberal Democrats, Classical Liberals, and Libertarian Party UK) could have a total of 41 seats, just 10 short of an overall majority. Meanwhile, Labour could lose 9 seats compared to the last election, falling from 22 to just 13. The party has struggled since pulling out of the Grand Coalition Government last month. Labour’s Official Opposition partner, the Greens, are expected to hold on to their 8 seats, whilst the National Unionist Party is due to climb from 8 to 10.



The election came on the back of a historic term of office, in which the Conservatives and Labour entered Government together for the first time since the Second World War, before the agreement collapsed, leading to a 30 seat Conservative Government successfully passing a budget. The ensuing turmoil within Labour spawned two new parties and threw the polls into chaos, providing fresh momentum for Liberty Bloc parties, as well as the National Unionists and the Celtic Coalition.



Under their projection, The People’s Action Party, One Love, and New Britain are all anticipated to pick up their very first seats in Highland and Grampian, Hampshire North, and Sussex respectively, contributing to a more muddled, confused, and pluralistic Parliament than we have ever seen before. An apparent so-called “purple surge” of LPUK voters has also help to contribute to the unpredictable nature of this election and the coming Parliament.



Who will become Prime Minister under this projection is extremely unclear, with incumbent Leafy_Emerald being in poll position, but without a clear path to Government if the former leader of the opposition and his liberal colleagues decide to pursue a Liberty Bloc effort to take Number 10. Meanwhile, Labour looks set to struggle to maintain its position as Official Opposition, and faces a tough upward climb during the new term.



Full results will not be known until Sunday evening, when results will be counted and announced in the 50 constituency seats across the country, with the remaining 50 list seats announced soon after. The process of swearing in the new MPs, and negotiating a potentially messy coalition agreement, will begin a few days later. The Guardian will be here to keep you abrest of all the developments.