OK, one last entry. I see some commenters referring to results from betting markets — and some of them reading the numbers upside down. I’m personally not a big fan of the “wisdom of crowds” thing in this case: people laying bets are working from the same information the rest of us have, and in some cases (Intrade) recent movements have suggested that some players are, at the very least, putting their money on the candidate they want to win rather than the candidate they think will win.

But anyway, here’s a site with a convenient summary of several markets. Note that Betfair, a well-established sports betting site, puts Obama’s odds at 77 percent. That’s not as high as Silver, let alone Wang, but it’s surely enough to puncture the notion that only pointy-headed NY Times types believe that Obama is the favorite.