

Raleigh, N.C. – Tuesday looks like it’s going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich’s net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It’s a similar story in Alabama where Santorum’s at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney’s at only +13 (53/40).

The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as ‘very conservative’ and Romney’s getting only 26% with them. But he’s still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as ‘very conservative,’ Romney’s at just 24%. But again he remains competitve overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.

It’s not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who’ve decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.

“About all we know for sure about Tuesday’s primaries is that Ron Paul will finish last in them,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Beyond that it’s plausible that any of the candidates could finish between first and third in both Alabama and Mississippi.”

PPP surveyed 656 likely Republican voters in Mississippi and 600 likely Republican primary voters in Alabama on March 10th and 11th. The margin of error for the Mississippi poll is +/-3.8% and for the Alabama poll it’s +/-4.0%.

This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Alabama Toplines

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary

or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?

Republican primary………………………………….100%

Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,

or do you plan to vote on election day?

Already voted………………………………………….. 5%

Plan to vote on election day………………………. 95%

Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,

Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 53%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 0%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 11%

Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican

candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,

Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If

the election was today, who would you vote

for?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 28%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 30%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%

Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to

that candidate, or might you end up supporting

someone else?

Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 74%

Might end up supporting someone else ………. 26%

Q6 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 30%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 29%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Ron Paul?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mitt Romney?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rick Santorum?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q11 If the Republican candidates were just Ron

Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who

would you vote for?

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 43%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%

Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to

65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.

18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%

46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%

Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%

Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%

Moderate………………………………………………… 13%

Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%

Very conservative ……………………………………. 45%

Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of

the Tea Party?

Yes………………………………………………………… 25%

No …………………………………………………………. 61%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q16 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 68%

Are not …………………………………………………… 32%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a

Republican, press 2. If an independent, press

3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%

Republican……………………………………………… 76%

Independent……………………………………………. 21%

Q18 Which best describes when you decided who

to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,

the last month, or earlier than that?

In the last few days ………………………………….. 13%

In the last week……………………………………….. 9%

In the last month ……………………………………… 31%

Earlier than that ………………………………………. 37%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q19 Are you an Alabama or Auburn fan?

Alabama…………………………………………………. 58%

Auburn …………………………………………………… 28%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q20 Do you think Alabama’s new immigration law

has been a good thing or a bad thing for the

state?

Good thing ……………………………………………… 67%

Bad thing………………………………………………… 22%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rush Limbaugh?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q22 Do you think Barack Obama is a Christian or a

Muslim, or are you not sure?

Christian…………………………………………………. 14%

Muslim …………………………………………………… 45%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q23 Do you believe in evolution, or not?

Believe in evolution………………………………….. 26%

Do not ……………………………………………………. 60%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q24 Do you think that interracial marriage should be

legal or illegal?

Legal……………………………………………………… 67%

Illegal …………………………………………………….. 21%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Mississippi Toplines

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary

or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?

Republican primary………………………………….100%

Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,

or do you plan to vote on election day?

Already voted………………………………………….. 9%

Plan to vote on election day………………………. 91%

Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,

Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 20%

Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican

candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,

Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If

the election was today, who would you vote

for?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 33%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 28%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%

Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to

that candidate, or might you end up supporting

someone else?

Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 75%

Might end up supporting someone else ………. 25%

Q6 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 33%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 27%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Ron Paul?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mitt Romney?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rick Santorum?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 If the Republican candidates were just Ron

Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who

would you vote for?

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 41%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%

Man……………………………………………………….. 53%

Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to

65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.

18 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%

46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%

Older than 65………………………………………….. 35%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%

Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%

Moderate………………………………………………… 14%

Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%

Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%

Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of

the Tea Party?

Yes………………………………………………………… 24%

No …………………………………………………………. 58%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q16 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 70%

Are not …………………………………………………… 30%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a

Republican, press 2. If an independent, press

3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 4%

Republican……………………………………………… 75%

Independent……………………………………………. 21%

Q18 Which best describes when you decided who

to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,

the last month, or earlier than that?

In the last few days ………………………………….. 9%

In the last week……………………………………….. 10%

In the last month ……………………………………… 27%

Earlier than that ………………………………………. 39%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q19 Overall, do you have a favorable or

unfavorable opinion of Haley Barbour?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q20 Did you approve or disapprove of the pardons

Haley Barbour issued during his final days in

office?

Approve …………………………………………………. 24%

Disapprove……………………………………………… 62%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rush Limbaugh?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q22 Do you think Barack Obama is a Christian or a

Muslim, or are you not sure?

Christian…………………………………………………. 12%

Muslim …………………………………………………… 52%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q23 Do you believe in evolution, or not?

Believe in evolution………………………………….. 22%

Do not ……………………………………………………. 66%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q24 Do you think that interracial marriage should be

legal or illegal?

Legal……………………………………………………… 54%

Illegal …………………………………………………….. 29%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%