“The stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion in value,” President Trump bragged in last week’s State of the Union address.

Oops.

Trump’s boast came in the middle of a week in which the Dow Jones Industrials fell some 1,100 points, including Friday’s devilish 666-point blowout. All told the blue chip index fell 4.1%, erasing billions of dollars in wealth. The selloff continued Monday, with the Dow retreating as much as 1,400 points.

Read:Dow sinks by triple digits as global equities rout persists

It’s not necessarily Trump’s fault that stocks are now falling. By many measures, the market has been overvalued for a long time. Treasury rates are surging, largely a reflection of an improving economy. And the Federal Reserve is slowly taking away the cookie jar—its decade-long, multi-trillion-dollar scheme to push investors into stocks by driving long-term rates down through the purchase of long-dated bonds and mortgage securities. Investors have also gotten too complacent, thinking the risk-off mentality was here to stay.

Read: Jerome Powell sworn in as Fed chairman as inflation concerns cause markets to swoon

But Trump did screw up by associating himself too closely with the market. Since he became president, barely a day has gone by without him or his press secretary Sarah Sanders bragging about it—thus inferring that the market’s rise was all because of Trump.

By intertwining the stock market’s success with his own, Trump walked into a trap if his own making: If you take credit for the rise then guess what? You own its fall. Yet Trump and Sanders mysteriously came down with a case of laryngitis on Friday; neither uttered a peep. That’s no surprise for a president who thinks he’s infallible, never errs and is never to blame for anything. If the downturn continues, look for him to start throwing people under the bus—that’s what he does.

Presidents have often learned the hard way that the economy and stock market often don’t move in lockstep. In 1980, when Jimmy Carter was president, the S&P 500 soared 31.7%. But GDP shrank 0.2% and Ronald Reagan was elected in a landslide. Two years later, stocks rose 20.4%. But the economy contracted by 1.9%. In the midterm election, Reagan’s Republican party lost 26 House seats.

Those are two examples of what can happen when stocks are surging, but the economy isn’t. What can happen when the opposite—a surging economy but a falling market—occurs? Lyndon Johnson learned the hard way in 1966. That year, unemployment was 3.8%—lower than now, and the economy grew an amazing 6.6%, much higher than now. But the S&P SPX, -1.11% fell 10%. LBJ’s Democrats were slaughtered, losing 47 House seats.

And sometimes everything is bad, like in 2008, when the economy and stocks collapsed. Americans gave the GOP the boot that year, turning the presidency and the Senate over to Democrats, and giving them greater control of the House as well. The stock market grew 25.9% and 14.8% respectively over the next two years and the economy began to recover. So what happened? A wave election—for Republicans. They gained an astronomical 63 House seats, retaking the lower chamber—and have controlled it ever since.

Trump likes to brag about how he went Wharton (albeit just undergrad), and is a self-proclaimed genius on all things economic. So he should know better than to double down on a market that was out if whack to begin with. If the selling continues, all the sound bites about how great things are and how it’s all because of him are going too add to his already sizable political problems.

In addition to the suddenly-wobbly market, Trump’s economic promises so far have not borne fruit, either. The economy slowed in the 4th quarter to 2.6%, and while naysayers can claim—correctly—that tax cuts haven’t kicked in yet, most economists think the impact is likely to be muted.

For now, I think Trump can claim that he’s in good shape because stocks are up, the economy’s growing and unemployment is down. That’s a fair point. He does, for now, have all three things working in his favor. That makes Republicans a shoo-in right? You mean like in 2016? If you’ll look just two years into the rear view mirror, you’d see that the S&P gained 11.7%, GDP grew (a modest) 1.5% and unemployment had fallen to 4.6%. Everyone thought Hillary Clinton would win. How’d that turn out?

Read: Here’s the latest update to the Trump Scoreboard after the January jobs report

Sometimes there are external factors that can sway voters. Remember, tons of Trump voters weren’t so much voting for him as they were voting against Clinton; the same dynamic could now swing the other way.