In 2019, Major League Rugby was full of surprises. The (then) Glendale Raptors, stars of season one, failed to advance to the playoffs. Expansion teams Toronto Arrows and Rugby United New York, however, tasted the postseason. And the Seattle Seawolves once again cast out history, regular season form, and recent results to pull off an upset championship win.

Last year, I wrote a column on bold predictions for the 2019 season. Time to turn to this year and what might be in store.

As with last year, these predictions are all unlikely to occur. That’s the point. I’ve set out to identify five happenings to occur this year that most people would not expect.

Champions Undone

Let’s start off hot. In 2020, the Seattle Seawolves will not make the final four.

The back-to-back champs. The only historical champs. They’ve been underrated since their very first scrum and they’ve constantly proven their doubters wrong. Buoyed by a rabid home fan base, they are a rugby Cinderella story that skipped the whole indentured servitude and talking to mice phase and jumped right to the royal ball. They’ve been a lot of fun to watch.

And I suspect they will be fun to watch this year. We just won’t be watching them in the semifinals. The Western Conference has turned into an arms race, and even with the signing of Argentinian Juan Leguizamon, it’s not clear that Seattle is keeping up. Not when you look at incoming stars like Rene Ranger (Colorado Raptors) and Ma’a Nonu (San Diego Legion).

And, though champions both years, Seawolves have never finished top of the table at the end of the regular season. Heart, gumption and a bit of luck in the playoffs have combined to boost them twice to the top of the podium. Those things can triumph for only so long. They lost a step in 2019 but managed to fight their way through. I think they’re going to lose another step in 2020, and in a league with this much parity, two steps behind is not where you find the final four teams.

Home Town Heroes

I mentioned two big imports already. There are others. I had the pleasure of interviewing Mathieu Bastareaud last year when his signing with Rugby United New York was announced. The “Beast” Tendai Mtawarira from South Africa made shockwaves by announcing a move to expansion team Old Glory DC.

Imports have been the story of this offseason. But I predict that it won’t be an import to win 2020 Player of the Year. Player of the Year will be a player with no meaningful overseas career. It could be a rookie from college or high school. It could be an MLR veteran with a break out year. It will not be a Nonu or a Ranger.

Look, these international players are great. Frankly, they are probably the best individual players in the league. But rugby is a systems game, and the systems they come from are so different than ours that I don’t think their games will translate fully. Look at a Ben Foden, last year’s version of a big international signing. He was a solid contributor for RUNY, but few people put him in the player of the year conversation.

It will take time for MLR systems to advance in quality and seasoning to the point where they can maximize the ability of these foreign stars. And it will take time for those stars to adapt to the existing form and style of American play. I expect them all to be assets, but they won’t be the best assets.

Shake, RATL and Roll

Rugby ATL will make the playoffs in the east. That may not sound especially bold, but keep in mind what that implies. For RATL to log postseason minutes, one of the following Eastern Conference teams must not make it: Toronto Arrows, Rugby United New York, or NOLA Gold.

Those are three very strong teams each entering the season with championship aspirations. But Rugby ATL, though somewhat quiet on the media front, has been flashing warning signs at their conference rivals. The two club teams playing in the fall, Rugby ATL 404 and Life, both excelled. And in a preseason skirmish (which you can watch on Rugby ATL’s Facebook page), RATL outfought NOLA Gold.

With two other expansion teams having uncertain capabilities and three returning powerhouses, a playoff spot in the east will be hard to come by. I’m booking one for RATL.

Meet the New Boss

I think this season we will see our first ownership change. There are a lot of suspects. The rebranded Austin Herd still face a heavy lift in repairing the damage done with the local Austin club rugby community. Also rebranded, the Colorado Raptors have already taken steps to consider withdrawal.

In most MLR cities, ticket sales have been at or below expectations. And yet big-name players keep arriving. That costs money and it’s not clear where that money is coming from. Which probably means it’s coming from owners’ pockets.

That said, there still seems to be high demand for would-be owners to enter the league. Another two expansion teams are set for next year (LA and Dallas). Other locations, like Ohio and Las Vegas, seem ripe for a franchise.

That’s a combination that promotes a transaction. I think before the 2021 season kicks off, we will see at least one original owner handing over the reins to a new owner.

Mad Hatter

With a disappointing run in the 2019 Rugby World Cup and now a new four-year cycle to prepare, I expect USA Rugby to cap at least five new MLR players this year.

With the full rotation ahead of them, this is the time to start working in the players who’ll be the future of the international team. Simultaneously, as MLR enters its third season, it’s now been around long enough for college and high school players to have been playing and preparing with an eye toward an MLR career. Meaning this season I expect we will see a noticeable uptick in recent graduates making an impact across the MLR.

Those things combine for a great environment to promote new blood. Expect to see some atypical faces in Eagle kit as Gary Gold begins the process of forming his 2023 team. MLR should be the primary source for those new faces. Expect them to come quickly.