We were pleasantly surprised back in 2014 when the NZTA were declined consent for the Basin Reserve Flyover, a decision that sent the NZTA back to the drawing board. Last year, the process of coming up with a new transport plan for Wellington got underway with Let’s Get Wellington Moving (LGWM). It is essentially Wellington’s version of the Auckland Transport Alignment Plan and notably, shares the same project director.

While ATAP was far from perfect, starting with asking the wrong questions, it marked significant progress on a number of areas. For example, for the first time the (former) government agreed:

we can’t build our way out of congestion with more roads

we need to manage transport demand, including that comprehensive road pricing is needed

that the motorways are essentially finished and there’s little scope for further widening

that a major expansion to Auckland’s strategic public transport network was required

On Wednesday the next stage of LGWM was released. Yet amazingly, LGWM contains none of that and even says of road pricing “We have not specifically included any road pricing in our scenarios”. That’s frankly astounding given it is already being investigated by the government for Auckland. What’s more, as you’ll notice the project appears to ignore everything north of Ngauranga, apparently ruled out of scope.

Unfortunately it gets worse. Many of the much-needed improvements to public transport, walking and cycling are only considered for after a series of increasingly expensive road projects. It’s like something out of the 1960’s. The road projects even include potential bridge options around the Basin Reserve. Did they learn nothing from the Basin Flyover debacle?

LGWM contains four scenarios and they are consulting the public on them. Each new scenario is a progression of the one before it. Here they are:

Scenario A

Prioritising public transport, walking and cycling in the central city Reducing speed limits and re-prioritising key central city streets for walking, cycling, and public transport makes travelling by bus quicker and creates a safer and more attractive environment for people on foot and on bikes. Cost: $150 – $200 m Time to build: 1.5 – 2.5 years

Scenario B

Better connections to the east and south An extra Mt Victoria tunnel and separating east-west traffic from other movements at the Basin Reserve would deliver faster and more reliable public transport connections to the south and east, and allow mass transit from the railway station to Newtown and the airport. This would also make it easier for everyone, including people walking and on bikes, to get to and from the southern and eastern suburbs. Cost: $700 – $900 m* Time to build: 5 – 7 years* *Includes enhanced bus mass transit. Light rail would add $350m – $500m, and increase the time to construct by about 18 months

Scenario C

Less conflict with traffic and redevelopment opportunities in Te Aro A new city tunnel would remove much of the conflict between people walking and on bikes and traffic travelling through Te Aro. It would also make bus travel more reliable. It would reduce traffic on Vivian Street and Kent/Cambridge Terrace, and provide redevelopment opportunities, including new buildings and public spaces above the tunnel. Cost: $1.5b – $1.8b* Time to build: 7 – 10 years* *Includes enhanced bus mass transit. Light rail would add $350m – $500m, and increase the time to construct by about 18 months

Scenario D

Better access from the north, and less waterfront traffic Building an extra Terrace Tunnel would improve access to and from the north and reduce traffic on the waterfront quays and through the central city, making it easier to get to and from the waterfront. Cost: $1.9b – $2.3b* Time to build: 10+ years* *Includes enhanced bus mass transit. Light rail would add $350m – $500m, and increase the time to construct by about 18 months

From all of the language, this is appearing to be a very heavy predict and provide modelling exercise. One that just extrapolates existing behaviour and takes no account of the ability of using transport investment (and or demand management) to influence a different outcome. This is highlighted both by the comments around road pricing and in the text about Mass Transit.

Current growth rates for the city suggest the point at which demand would justify mass transit is about ten years away. In the short term, we need to improve the quality and reliability of buses on the preferred route. This means separating buses from other traffic and giving them priority.

The heavy modelling focus is likely made worse as last I heard, Wellington’s transport models were not as sophisticated as Auckland’s. I’m happy to be wrong on that and hopefully they’ve updated those models for this work.

Another way they appear to have influenced he outcome is by assessing impacts over a ridiculously short time frame. It appears that LGWM is only looking at the impact out to 2026, as opposed to ATAPs 30-year view. That’s notable because at best, it’s going to take years to design, consent the bigger road projects listed and even long to construct them. That wouldn’t give much time for issues like induced demand to rear their head.

Understandably, the scenarios have already angered local advocacy groups like Save the Basin. Thankfully new Transport Minister Phil Twyford has already indicated that the government will focus on walking, cycling and better PT.

The new Government will work with Wellington to advance a smart 21st century transport system for the city with more and better rapid transit, and more walking and cycling. https://t.co/UpgaQF5yLR — Phil Twyford (@PhilTwyford) November 15, 2017

It looks like it’s time for LGVM to join the Basin Reserve Flyover in the bin. Before that happens, provide feedback on the plan.

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