Last Updated: Feb 16, 9pm



Key (in order of preference) LV Likely Voter| RV Registered Voter | DV Definite Voter | EV Eligible Voter |Dem Democrats Only | A All Americans

See below for updated discussion around use of HarrisX polling from three different polling firms (The Hill, SWR or Scott Rasmussen, and Harvard).

DECEMBER STRICT AVERAGE (all latest by pollster) with links

10at10 Rules

Last Updated 1 Aug. 2019

Strict average of latest poll by pollster. All scientific polls without weighting, exclusions, or adjustments. Average includes polls with a final field date in the last 10 days (1st field date in last 3 weeks), updated daily around 10am and 10pm. If there are seven or fewer such polls, the time frame may be expanded to 14 or 21 days to capture enough polling. For the final projection before an election date, the time frame for polling may shrink to 2 to 4 days. Absolute minimum for average, three polls.

For this particular average, candidates will be included or excluded based on their likelihood of participating in the next official Democratic debate.

Notes: (updated 5 Oct. 2019) (1) Three different outlets that release polls are regularly using HarrisX, an online polling firm, to collect data which they are then free to individually weight by demographic category and to make use of exclusions (such as of self-identified GOP or Independent voters or likely and unlikely voters). 10at10 only uses one set of figures per poll data collector at a time. For HarrisX 10at10 will consider all polls within the relevant 10 day, two week, or three week period, then select which poll to count based on preference order of LV, RV, DV, etc. above, most recent date, and sample size. For instance, if Scott W. Rasmussen (SWR) releases a full week’s worth of data (large sample size) on the last field date (very recent) and only excludes unlikely voters (DV+LV columns), it would certainly be the preferred option. If, however, SWR excludes LV, 10at10 will then consider (2) A similar situation sometimes holds with YouGov where CBS, The Economist, Data for Progress, and Huffington Post have all released polls that they have weighted themselves based on data received from YouGov. If CBS has a poll in the relevant time frame, including even a poll just of the ~20 contests through Super Tuesday, it will be preferred because a) CBS’ lead pollster has not expressed preference or antipathy for one candidate over another b) CBS polling counts toward Democratic debate qualification.