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Excitement, a few jitters, some apprehension: those are the emotions you might feel when you start a new job. But for those who quit before the coronavirus pandemic, a new job can end in financial disaster.

In mid-March, Chris Ogden was offered a new job as a a magazine editor. He quickly handed in his notice at the tech startup where he had been working part-time for two years and was even able to negotiate a deal to start his new job two days later. That same afternoon, prime minister Boris Johnson was on the verge of announcing a country-wide lockdown.


On March 29, there was an email waiting in his inbox: his new company was terminating his employment. “It’s all been very, very quick,” Ogden recalls. “Obviously, it’s not great in my sector to know that I have no income coming in and whatever funds I do have could run out. Maybe not next week, but certainly within a month or two unless I sort it out.”

His experience is not unique. Thousands of other people across the country who started new jobs as the pandemic took hold in the UK face similar uncertainty and potential financial ruin. Over a billion people around the world are set to suffer financially as the coronavirus costs jobs, cuts people’s working hours and impacts on wages, according to new figures from the International Labour Organisation.

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Connor Walsh, who worked as a chef at a Michelin star restaurant in central London, lost his job alongside the rest of his colleagues the week Johnson announced the lockdown. “We didn’t know if we were going to get the job back or anything like that,” Walsh says. “It’s been a difficult time.”

The UK hospitality sector has been one of the hardest hit by the coronavirus. A study by job site Adzuna found that 40 per cent of its listings, or around 25,000 advertised vacancies, had been wiped out following the indefinite closure of pubs and restaurants. The jobs site has seen a 22 per cent drop in advertised vacancies over the last six weeks, with manufacturing job postings down 12.5 per cent, and graduate jobs down 13 per cent.


Jobs board Indeed saw a similar trend. The hospitality and tourism sector was hit by a 58 per cent drop in job postings since late January, while food preparation and services jobs are down by 54 per cent over the same period. Aviation, customer service, beauty and wellness and sports jobs are also down.

Indeed says that postings usually increase early in the year. At the start of 2020, that’s exactly what happened: the volume of job postings in the UK grew faster in January this year than they did two years ago. But the job postings began to drop in mid-March, coinciding with government advice to begin social distancing. As of March 27, job postings on Indeed are 33 per cent down on this time last year.

Christopher Rauh, professor of labour economics at the University of Cambridge, says that the tremors from the coronavirus fallout could be worse than the 2008 financial crisis. “In the Great Recession, we saw drops in GDP of a few single-digit percentages in most countries. I think in this quarter alone, we’re going to see unprecedented drops in developed economies,” he says. “I think it’s going to be worse [than the Great Recession].”

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It wasn’t long ago that chancellor Rishi Sunak was heralding a jobs miracle in the UK as he delivered his first 2020 budget, but the coronavirus has wiped that momentum out. The latest official figures show that 950,000 people applied for the main income support benefit – universal credit – between March 16 and March 31, up from the 100,000 applications typically made in any two-week period.


To put that into perspective, applications for jobseeker’s allowance rose from 46,000 in February 2008 to 82,000 in the following year. “The Great Recession was like a slow and long unravelling, now it’s a huge, steep cut.” Rauh adds.

And we won’t see the true extent of the damage that the coronavirus has done to the UK jobs market until June when the latest Office for National Statistics employment figures are released. For now, national figures on unemployment rates in the UK are months out of date: the latest are for the period between November 2019 to January 2020, when it was 3.9 per cent, published on March 21.

The unemployment rate in the UK reached 7.6 per cent in 2009 following the economic crash and at its height, reached 8.1 per cent in 2011. Some economists are already making stark predictions that the latest figures will be even higher.

Investment bank Nomura is predicting that there will be an unemployment rate of eight per cent between April and June, and that it will rise to 8.5 per cent in the following three months. George Buckley, chief UK economist at Nomura, says that the 8.5 per cent unemployment rate might be on the low side. “The other question is how many firms will take advantage of the schemes that the government is offering, both on pay – the 80 per cent scheme – and also on self-employment,” he explains.

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Walsh has since been put onto the government’s furlough scheme, which allows companies to keep their employees on their books rather than make them redundant. Under these measures, the government will pay 80 per cent of his salary.

Danielle Parsons, an employment lawyer at Slater and Gordon explains that in order to be eligible for the scheme you can’t continue working for your employer during that period of furlough. Employees on furlough could volunteer or work for another company, but this is completely dependent on whether their contract allows this. "Your employer shouldn’t be asking you to work – if you do so then this will affect your eligibility for the scheme,” she says. “The scheme will also be audited by HMRC, so employers should ensure that they are not misusing furlough.”

Ogden, however, isn’t eligible to be furloughed because he started his job after February 28. “I feel as if I’ve fallen through a crack, really,” he says. “Going for a new job is not something that I think you should be penalised for".

Sebastian Mattern, an employment consultant at law firm Tiger Law, says that whilst there may be a contractual obligation for an employer to pay affected employees, it’s also simple for them to terminate their employment – under employment legislation. “Employees who started in March – or even in February if they weren’t paid for the first time in February – unfortunately fall through the net as things currently stand.” Mattern says. “An employee with less than two years’ service has very few rights to bring a claim. Likewise, there is no entitlement to redundancy pay for anyone with less than two years’ service.”

Mattern adds that it’s theoretically possible for the former employer of someone who left in February to start a new role in March to take them back and to put them on furlough. “Whether employers are doing so, especially in the current situation, is another story of course,” he says.

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Gig economy workers and those on zero-hour contracts, however, cannot be furloughed. And these are the people most likely to be affected by the coronavirus. “The more people that you have on part-time, temporary, short-term hours or gig-style zero hours, the easier it is to get rid of people and then rehire at some point in the future,” says Buckley.

A study by economists at the University of Cambridge, led by Rauh, found that people in the UK under the age of 30 had been hardest hit by the coronavirus job cuts. According to the study, ten per cent of employees under 30 are now unemployed due to the coronavirus, compared to six per cent of employees aged 40 to 65. In addition, Rauh found that workers earning under £20,000 were only able to complete 30 per cent of the tasks in their main job from home compared to 55 per cent for those earning more than £40,000. A further 12 per cent of low-income workers are now unemployed because of coronavirus compared to five per cent of higher earners, the study revealed.

Max Marlow, a 24-year-old freelancer working in the film industry, was most recently contracted to work in the visual effects department on the upcoming Kingsman prequel. “The nature of the work in film is that you get paid weekly, you work for as long as they need you. And then once the film is done, you’re done. And then you’re unemployed – you find the next gig,” Marlow says. “A lot of people plan to find their next gig towards the end of production, but all of them have shut down because of the outbreak.” His story, thankfully, has ended well for now — he has been rehired and put on furlough by the film company he was working for.

Yet there are specific sectors that are managing to stay afloat. Indeed found that while job adverts for all sectors were down, some experienced a smaller decline than others. Nursing-related job postings were down one per cent since late January, physicians and surgeons down three per cent, medical technicians and personal care both down five per cent and security and public safety down nine per cent. Driving-related jobs were down nine per cent, while jobs related to loading and stocking – such as warehouse worker, order picker and forklift driver – were down ten per cent.

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Adzuna also found that vacancies for cleaners, teachers, scientists and accountants had increased. In addition, thousands of supermarket jobs are now being advertised, with Tesco announcing on March 20 that it was looking to hire 20,000 temporary workers to deal with the increased demand. Morrisons is also going on a hiring spree, hoping to hire 2,500 pickers and drivers. Aldi has said that it’s looking to hire 4,000 permanent staff and 5,000 temporary workers at its stores and distribution centres, while Asda and Co-op are looking to hire 5,000 new workers each. But Buckley cautions that the supermarket hiring boom is unlikely to last. “Places like supermarkets may well find that they need more staff right now, but it might well be temporary."

Walsh says that he was considering working in a supermarket, but that he wouldn’t be eligible for the furlough scheme if he did. Marlow says that he feels fortunate because he lives at home with his family. He’s keeping himself busy by working on writing projects which he didn’t have time for previously.

For now, Walsh says that he’s going to move back to his mum’s house in Leeds. “Staying in London – it will be just too expensive,” he thinks. “I’ve still got rent to pay on this 80 per cent wage.”

Alex Lee is a writer for WIRED. He tweets from @1AlexL

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