Stan Greenberg, the noted pollster who served as an adviser to President Clinton just before the disastrous 1994 midterm elections, has a new piece out in the New Republic. In it, he describes how to avoid a repeat in 2010:

If I were writing a memo to the Democratic leaders, this is where I would begin. Put aside the rancor and gridlock and show a very different face. Take Paul Krugman's advice and quickly pass a version of the Senate health care bill. That will raise presidential and congressional approval ratings, just as Clinton bucked up Democrats by passing nafta and tax increases for deficit reduction--neither of which were popular at the time.



They must put the Republicans on the defensive. Make them an offer they can't refuse on bipartisan legislation they dare not oppose--jobs measures that help small businesses and energy-independence legislation. Then, force Republicans to cast tough and defining votes--on Wall Street bonuses and bailouts and limiting corporate spending on elections.

This seems like good advice to me. The problem is, Brad Ellsworth has been on the Republican side on all of it. Health care? He voted for the House version of the health care bill, but only after becoming the only Indiana Democrat to vote for the GOP's motion to recommit, which would have killed the bill. He even threatened to vote against the entire bill unless he got his way on his pet anti-choice proposal, and it's no guarantee he'll vote for a bill again.



Energy independence? Ellsworth voted against the American Clean Energy and Security Act bill. Jobs? Ellsworth was just one of 11 House Democrats to vote against the President's own stimulus bill-- a bill that created jobs for Indiana, only reluctantly backing a smaller version later. Bailouts? He voted to bail out Wall Street-- twice-- in late 2008. Foreclosures? He voted against the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009, which allows bankruptcy judges to modify mortgage loans to help families stay in their homes, among other means.



In other words, not only has Ellsworth tried to defeat legislation that would help middle-class Hoosiers who are struggling with their health care bills and mortgage payments, he's following exactly the opposite of Greenberg's advice-- casting the kind of votes that will sink a candidate for the Senate... But that's not the only thing. Another reason Ellsworth is a bad choice to be the Democratic statewide candidate is because it's hard to find Democrats who like him. One of the many missed lessons of 1994 was that Democrats that year had a base problem.

Expect a letter or e-mail-- probably both-- from the DSCC urging you to save Evan Bayh's Indiana Senate seat for the Democrats. First of all, did the Democrats ever even have a Senate seat in Indiana occupied by a Bayh since Birch Bayh left? Since Obama was elected president, Birch's ConservaDem son Evan has had the second worst voting record, according to ProgressivePunch, of any Senate Democrat other than Ben Nelson, who makes a point of being able to brag that on tough, close, substantive votes he voteswith the GOP than with the Democrats! Bayh isn't as bad-- but he's almost as bad, and his voting record (55.07% with Dems) is worse than Blanche Lincoln's, Arlen Specter's, Joe Lieberman's, Mary Landrieu's and, so far...But there is another Democrat whose voting record is worse than Bayh's. He's just not in the Senate. Yet. Bayh's retirement announcement was timed to stick the Republicans with a third-rate candidate, sleazy lobbyist Dan Coats,stick Indiana Democrats with a hand-picked bosses' delight. Bayh and his political machine have chosen right-wing Democrat Brad Ellsworth-- an original Rahm Emanuel vintage Blue Dog from 2006. He's being shoved down the throats of Indiana Democrats without a primary his conservative ass could never win.One of the House's vilest and most repulsive and aggressive homophobes -- and a political coward catering to Republican framing as his standard default position-- Ellsworth's score for the 111th Congress on close, crucial votes was an astonishing 35.82, one of the worst of any Democrat who doesn't represent a former slave-holding area. Yesterday, for example, the House agreed to justvoting on an appropriations bill for the U.S. Intelligence services. It passed 237-176 . All 166 obstructionist Republicans who are against every single Democratic proposal voted no, and so did 9 super-reactionary Blue Dogs who regularly make common cause with the GOP. Of course Ellsworth was one of them.Democratic Party activist Bil Browning has been warning Indiana Democrats that by forcing Ellsworth on the party they will be following in the footsteps of the catastrophic Creigh Deeds strategy and handing the seat to even the weak GOP candidate.Core Democratic constituencies may not vote for Republicans, but it would be insane to expect them to turn out and vote for a reactionary like Ellsworth. He's been a demagogue on Latino issues , a disaster on LGBT issues, a disaster on women's issues, environmental issues, issues of vital importance to low-income groups, young people, unmarried women... If he expects to be elected-- as a Democrat-- without big support from these groups because he's spent the past few years kissing up to conservative Republicans, he's as stupid as he is conservative. Conservatives will vote for a Republican, not for a Democrat. Ellsworth will lose the Indiana Senate seat for the Democrats . Will Rahm Emanuel take responsibility and commit seppuku on the White House lawn? If so... it would be worth the loss of the seat.So... when the DSCC gets in touch and asks you for some money, tell them you support progressive Democrats who are toiling for working families, not ConservaDems working for special interests and corporations. Tell them Brad Ellsworth was a crappy Blue Dog in the House and that thething we need in the Senate is another right-wing Democrat working with the GOP to prevent change. And tell them you'd rather give your donations to progressives running for the Senate, like Jennifer Brunner (D-OH), Elaine Marshall (D-NC) and Roxanne Conlin (D-IA) and Joe Sestak (D-PA), rather than their pack of sellout shills.

Labels: Brad Ellsworth, DSCC, Evan Bayh, Indiana, Senate 2010