The top 5 cryptocurrencies mostly show negative growth across all fundamentals, with the exceptions being XRP and BSV. Demand has fallen week-on-week as indicated by the falling mean transaction fees and the reduction in the number of active addresses/number of transactions.

A large drop in active addresses and number of transactions for BCH could be attributed to the contentious upcoming fork in the Bitcoin Cash protocol which is set to give 12.5% of the block reward to the developement team. The disagreements in the community may result in another chain split.

Fundamentals: Bitcoin

A summary of key metrics for bitcoin.

Mayer Multiple = 1.08

The Mayer Multiple has historically been higher than today’s value 57.14 percent of the time.

The Mayer Multiple has decreased from 1.09 last week to 1.08.

Typically, tops in the price of bitcoin are indicated when the Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.4 (shown on the chart).

The average value over Bitcoin’s trading history is 1.38.

Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) ratio = 1.65765

The MVRV ratio indicates that the market is likely to be overvalued when it exceeds 3.7. On the other hand, the market is suggested to be undervalued if the ratio is less than 1 (shown on the chart).

As with the Mayer Multiple, the MVRV ratio has cooled off a bit after reaching fresh highs for 2020.

Network Value to Transactions Signal (NVTS) = 99.5425

A high NTVS (above 72) indicates that the network value is over-valued in relation to the daily transaction value on the Bitcoin network and identifies tops in the market.

Conversely, a low NVTS (below 38), suggests that bitcoin is under-valued in relation to the daily transaction value andidentifies bottoms in the market.

The NVTS was near the highs reached in summer 2019 but has since cooled off, suggesting BTC-USD is overvalued when comparing the network value and daily transaction value.

“Never Look Back” Price = $9,609 — (as of Feb 19th)

The “Never Look Back” price is an indication of bitcoin adoption — the past value of BTC-USD that it has never returned to. A break below this value would be a bearish indication.

Since the price is currently below $9,609, this gives a bearish indication that prices may head lower. However, if prices sustain above $9,609, then this should be bullish for bitcoin.

(An updated version of the Never Look Back price can be found here: http://bitcoin.craighammell.com/nlb.html).

Days until next halving = 76

The highly anticipated block reward halving for bitcoin is estimated to occur during May 2020. The market has typically responded positively, reaching new all-time highs 10–20 months following previous halving events in 2016 and 2012.

You can find a countdown here.

Technicals

The recent price action for bitcoin and ether.

Bitcoin and Ether Snapshot