Analysis: Minsk severely restricts freedoms but the regime is far from totalitarian. Now that the president is playing peacemaker in the Ukraine conflict, it’s time for the west to review the way it sees Belarus, writes Ryhor Astapenia

Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice labelled Belarus “Europe’s last dictatorship” in 2005 and since then it has become a cliche perpetuated by international politicians and media. In 2012 alone, for example, two books on Belarus with titles including “last dictatorship” appeared in English – one by academic and think tank expert Andrew Wilson and the other by former British ambassador in Minsk Brian Bennett.

Political, economic and social freedoms are severely restricted in Belarus. Elections are not free or fair, president Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for 20 years, and there is no separation of powers between the executive, the judiciary, and the legislature. But controls on society are a long way from being as all-encompassing as they would be in a totalitarian state.

President Vladimir Putin’s regime in Russia has for a long time had a more moderate reputation than Lukashenko’s, but now, they are more evenly matched than some might think. The rise of Russian authoritarianism and the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine has fuelled the idea that if Belarus is a dictatorship, it is not the only one in Europe, nor is it the worst.

Rights records

Freedom House, which ranks countries according to political, economic and social freedoms, labels both Belarus and Russia as “not free”, although Russia has a slightly better rating in the standings.

Russia’s human rights record is becoming comparable to that of Belarus. With a rising number of political prisoners and violent attacks against political opponents, the situation continues to deteriorate.



Today, Viasna Human Rights Centre in Minsk counts seven political prisoners in Belarus. The Russian organisation Memorial states there are about 45 in Russia. Of course Russia has a larger population but the number of political prisoners in Russia keeps growing, while in Belarus, ahead of the 2015 presidential campaign, it has slowly been decreasing.



In Chechnya, scores of people have disappeared, while others are subjected to torture, a phenomenon that rights groups say continues today under the rule of Kremlin-backed strongman Ramzan Kadyrov. According to Human Rights Watch, the Chechen president’s security agencies continue to punish relatives and suspected supporters of alleged insurgents. Nothing of the sort can be found today in Belarus.



Belarus, it would seem, has never been Europe’s lone dictatorship

A number of both Russian and Belarusian opposition politicians have chosen to emigrate. For example, Garry Kasparov, Russian chess player and opposition figure, remains in exile, as well as prominent Belarusian public figures like Andrei Sannikau and Zianon Pazniak.

In Russia, non-governmental organisations do enjoy better conditions than their Belarusian counterparts. International groups such as Amnesty International can openly work in Russia while this remains impossible in Belarus.

Russian organisations funded from the west can officially receive that money, while in Belarus this is beyond the realm of possibility. Most, if not all, Belarusian NGOs acquire their financing illegally, according to Belarusian law. Moreover, the Belarusian authorities refuse to register many civil society organisations receiving funding from the west. Russia registers them, although it now labels them “foreign agents”.

In terms of economic freedoms the countries remains markedly similar – although Russia joined the World Trade Organisation in 2012 and Belarus has not. According to a Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal study, while both are slowly moving towards greater freedom their economies remain “mostly unfree”.

Both countries also suffer from serious corruption problems but Belarus is better off than Russia, according to Corruption Perceptions Index compiled by Transparency International which ranks Belarus 123rd while Russia sits at 127th.

Unpredictable authoritarian regimes in both countries deter many foreign investors. Some prime examples of this unpredictability include the Kremlin seizure of the assets of Yukos oil company and Belarusian authorities similar actions against the Kamunarka and Spartak confectioneries. Few people know what the Kremlin will do next, as sanctions against western foods have shown.

Questioning the ‘dictatorship’ label

Belarus, it would seem, has never been Europe’s lone dictatorship. Azerbaijan, which is in the Council of Europe, has about 100 political prisoners of its own, a dire human rights situation, and an authoritarian rule of law. Yet there are no international sanctions against Azeri authorities.

It is important to note that Belarusian and Azeri authoritarianism, however, is primarily the problem of Belarusians and Azeris. Russia, meanwhile, is felt to be threatening an entire region.

On 29 August, the United Nations reported that at least 2,593 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since April. Hundreds of Georgians died during the Russian invasion in 2008. Russia state media’s anti-western agenda has helped to mobilise public opinion against neighbours who choose western-style democracy and European integration over other alternatives. It is difficult to imagine Belarus waging a war against any country, while Russia takes pieces out of neighbouring states.

It is unlikely that Belarus will lose its cliched label any time soon. Moscow, unlike Minsk, has far more leverage on the EU and the United States in the form of oil, gas and nuclear weapons, and will not become as much of an outcast as its Customs Union partner.

But the Kremlin’s actions in Ukraine, and the attention drawn to authoritarian measures at home, may contribute to a new level of understanding between the west and Belarus. Lukashenko’s apparent neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, and the weakening of democracy in Russia, helps to improve the image of the Belarusian’s regime, and offers an opportunity for greater engagement with the EU and the US.

Though Belarus remains economically dependent on Russia, Lukashenko is a reluctant vassal of Putin. He has more interest in maintaining Belarus’ neutrality and re-exporting western agricultural goods than participating in conflict or even maintaining the full support of the Kremlin.

The current climate should be a wake-up call for western politicians who had hoped that Russia would eventually democratise Belarus, and had thought Minsk could leave Moscow’s zone of influence. Instead, they should do what they can to increase people-to-people contacts, liberalise the visa regime, help Belarusians strengthen their national and civil identity. A good start would be to abandon an unhelpful, cliched, label.

Ryhor Astapenia is an analyst of the Ostrogorski Centre, an editor-in-chief of Belarusian internet magazine Idea and a coordinator of BelarusProfile.com.

A version of this article first appeared on Belarus Digest