There is one thing that Republicans and Democrats in Arkansas might agree on: Northeast Arkansas could make or break both parties’ 2014 fortunes.

David Ray, communications director for Senate candidate Cong. Tom Cotton, R-Dardanelle, said the area has changed politically in the past several years.

“Historically, Northeast Arkansas has always been solidly Democratic. But you have seen since 2010, a strong shift in party preference,” Ray said. “There has not been a shift in ideology. Northeast Arkansas has always been conservative. But with the Democrats in Washington, they (local Democrats) do not recognize their values.”

Former Democratic Senator David Pryor, who was in Jonesboro, Newport and Paragould last month to campaign for his son, Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Little Rock, said the area has been receptive to the Democratic message.

David Pryor and his wife, Barbara, went to local senior centers and civic clubs to meet with potential voters.

“There is not much question it is a battleground,” the elder Pryor said. “It is a part of Arkansas that is vibrant and prospering. There is a lot of energy and a lot of young people with new ideas.”

Both Ray and David Pryor said the two Senate campaigns will definitely be looking to Northeast Arkansas as a possible path to victory this fall.

“We have campaigned relentlessly here,” Ray said. “We have been to Jonesboro at least a dozen times, Lake City, Mississippi County, Poinsett County, Sharp County and Independence County. It shows at least how important (the region) is to our campaign. We have also had a field operation and have knocked on doors since January.”

“(Today’s campaign) is different with electronic, Facebook and Twitter. We do a lot of door-to-door, street-by-street,” Pryor said. “We have worked on a 75 organized county approach, with phone banks and walking through neighborhoods. We have also had a large number of volunteers.”

NEA BATTLEGROUND

A map released last year by Republican consultant Clint Reed with Little Rock-based Impact Management Group measures political strength by county. Reed’s analysis showed that Craighead, Cross, Greene, Independence and Sharp counties are considered “purple,” or toss-up, counties this year.

“These counties have a tendency to split their preference between Republican and Democrat. How these counties break in 2014 could very well determine which political party controls the U.S. Senate or who the next governor is,” said Reed, who was part of a June panel at the Northeast Arkansas Political Animals Club.

Each of those “purple” counties have some sort of county race this year. Craighead, Cross, Greene and Sharp have contested county judge races this year, while each have five justice of the peace races. Turnout will also be boosted in these and other Northeast Arkansas counties by an abnormally high number of municipal races, especially for mayor.

As for statewide races, most if not all candidates on the ballot have spent time in those counties this year. The two top candidates for governor – Republican Asa Hutchinson and Democrat Mike Ross – campaigned at July 4th events in Corning, Piggott and Caraway and are scheduled to make more appearances in the coming weeks.

Former Massachusetts governor and 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney is scheduled to campaign Aug. 20 for Hutchinson in Jonesboro.

Meanwhile, some of the other statewide candidates have personal ties to the area.

GOP Attorney General candidate Leslie Rutledge grew up in Batesville while Jacob Holloway, a Libertarian candidate for Secretary of State, grew up in Jonesboro.

ON THE BALLOT

With the exception of a controversial vote on veterans, the First District Congressional race has so far been fairly quiet.

Incumbent Republican Cong. Rick Crawford faces Democratic nominee Jackie McPherson, the current mayor of Heber Springs.

Crawford was first elected in the historic 2010 election cycle that brought Republican representation to the district for the first time since Reconstruction. He has been working the district with constituent services, but campaign rallies and political appearances have been limited.

McPherson, who is campaigning in parts of the district for the first time this year, has made appearances in Jonesboro and other parts of Northeast Arkansas. He faces the uphill battle of raising his profile and name identification against a two-term representative.

Libertarian Brian Scott Willhite is also vying for the Congressional seat.

A Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll released in late July showed Crawford with a comfortable 47.5%-33% lead over McPherson. Willhite garnered 3% of the vote and the remaining 16.5% were undecided.

All told, there are 12 state legislative races in Northeast Arkansas this fall, several that are considered highly competitive.

Four of the contested state house races this year are in Craighead County, with two other contested races in Greene, Independence and Poinsett counties each.

Contested State House races in the region include:

• District 51 (Crittenden) – Libertarian Rodger Paxton of Marion and Democratic incumbent Deborah Ferguson of West Memphis

• District 52 (Craighead, Independence, Jackson and Poinsett) – Republican Dwight Tosh and Democrat Radius Baker, both of Jonesboro.

• District 53 (Craighead) – Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic incumbent Homer Lenderman of Brookland.

• District 54 (Mississippi and Poinsett) – Republican Dave Wallace of Leachville and Democratic incumbent Wes Wagner of Manila.

• District 57 (Greene) – Republican Ronnie Spence and Democratic incumbent Mary Broadaway, both of Paragould.

• District 58 (Craighead) – Republican Brandt Smith and Democratic incumbent Harold Copenhaver, both of Jonesboro.

• District 59 (Craighead) – Republican Jack Ladyman and Democrat Ron Carroll, both of Jonesboro.

• District 60 (Greene, Lawrence, Randolph and Sharp) – Republican Blaine Davis of Hoxie and Democratic incumbent James Ratliff of Imboden.

• District 61 (Fulton, Baxter, Randolph and Sharp) – Republican Doug Driesel of Cherokee Village and Democratic incumbent Scott Baltz of Pocahontas.

• District 62 (Izard, Independence, Sharp and Stone) – Republican Michelle Gray and Democratic incumbent Tommy Wren, both of Melbourne.

There are two contested State Senate races in Northeast Arkansas. They include:

• District 19 (Fulton, Independence, Izard, Randolph and Sharp) – Republican former State Rep. Linda Collins-Smith of Pocahontas and Democratic State Rep. James McLean of Batesville.

• District 20 (Clay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence and Randolph) – Republican Blake Johnson of Corning and Democratic incumbent State Sen. Robert Thompson of Paragould.

Republicans currently hold a 51-48-1 margin in the State House and a 22-13 majority in the State Senate.

ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS

Talk Business & Politics bloggers Jason Tolbert and Michael Cook joined a political roundtable with host Roby Brock and KATV’s lead capitol reporter Janelle Lilley to discuss the current state of Arkansas politics heading into Labor Day.

Noting recent Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College survey data, Republicans have several advantages currently, noted Tolbert. Cook said there is plenty of time for the conditions to change and he expects to see movement in key demographics in the next few weeks.

Both Cook and Tolbert offered their opinions on predictions for the 2014 election season. Watch their full interview below from this week’s edition of Talk Business & Politics, which airs Sundays at 9 a.m. on KATV Ch. 7.