

White Man's method of Environmental Management Population Growth and Finite Resources

Some Issues:

Is population growth really exponential in nature?

Can the Clock be Stopped? the reality of Zero Population Growth

the reality of Zero Population Growth Can new resources be found to replaced used resources?

Can equilibrium be achieved through clever recycling?

This is not my problem.

This depends on three factors: The average births per female note, the rise in teenage pregnancy severely impacts this estimate

note, the rise in teenage pregnancy severely impacts this estimate The average life expectancy

The annual net immigration rate Three models (as of 1994):

Birth Rate Expectancy Immigration Projections 1.9 75.3 350,000 293M (2030) 285M (2050) 2.2 82.6 880,000 263(1995) 392M(2050) 2.6 87.5 1.4 million 522M(2050)

In addition to this, the US population is undergoing a significant regional re-distribution

ZPG is only achieved in a model which limits immigration (a very politically sensitive issue), restricts birthrates to no more than 2 per female (more politics), and makes no attempt to increase life expectancy. The fertility rate has gone up. In 1988 the rate was 1.8 per female, now its 2.0 this increase is entirely due to teenage pregnancy. Equilibrium is difficult to achieve because exponential growth produces demographics such that they are substantially more people entering their reproductive years than those which are dying of old age. What about ZPG for the World?

Worst case scenario assumes 2.5 children per couple 28 billion people by 2150

Best case assumes 1.7 7.8 billion in 2050 declining to 4.3 billion by 2150

Current fertility rate is 3.3. Fertility rate in 1970 was 4.5

The above calculations, however, do not adequately factor in increases in global life expectancy.

Population Growth Map

The above map shows the that the "industrialized" world has stabilized somewhat to population growth rates less than 1% a year. But 1% is still a doubling time of 70 years and the calculated growth rates are based, in this study, on only 5 years worth of data.

What does fertility rate depend on? Regression (to be discussed later) suggests that literacy is a key factor.

Education may be the single biggest contributor towards ZPG.

When did we know there would be a problem?

Historical Estimates of World Population (accurate to 10--20%)

1000 AD 0.25 Billion

1100 AD 0.30

1200 AD 0.36

1250 AD 0.40

1300 AD 0.36 (three cheers for war and disease!)

1350 AD 0.44

1400 AD 0.35

1500 AD 0.43

1600 AD 0.55