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Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Spor

Anderson Silva: -150

Chris Weidman: +130

I can't remember a more intriguing fight in the Ultimate Fighting Championship. At least not in the last few years. It won't be the biggest fight ever, and any talk of this pay-per-view doing more than UFC 100 is nonsensical at best.

But it's one of the most interesting fights in UFC history, to be sure. It's a rematch that every fight fan has looked forward to since July 6, when Chris Weidman became the second Team Serra Longo fighter to score a gigantic UFC upset over a historic champion. Weidman knocked out Silva that night, wresting control of the middleweight championship from a man who had begun to border on the invincible.

Or at least it appeared that way. Because it turned out the weakest link in Silva's armor was hubris, and that's the most embarrassing thing of all. Even at 38 years old, Silva still has the skills to make virtually anyone he faces look like a rank amateur...when he isn't acting like a fool. But he acted the fool that night, and whether it's due to aging reflexes or Weidman simply being the best opponent Silva had ever faced, he paid for it.

But here we are again. This time around, Weidman is defending the belt. But once again, Silva is the betting favorite, and once again, I'm going to pick him.

Despite being knocked out in their last fight, I believe Silva is still the man we've watched dominate the middleweight division for years. Weidman has some statistical advantages; he attempts more significant strikes per minute than Silva. And while this is typically an indicator of a heavy advantage, I'm not sure it's the case with Silva. His game is heavily predicated on counter-striking, on making his opponents miss and drilling them with accurate strikes. His 67 percent Significant Striking Accuracy is the highest on the card by a wide margin, and his 1.8 Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute is the third lowest on the card, behind only Ronda Rousey (1.4) and Siyar Bahazurdada (1.5).

Silva is also a southpaw, and southpaws always have a statistical advantage when fighting orthodox stance fighters. It may not play out that way in individual fights, but in the long run it does.

But there's one major advantage Weidman brings to the table, and it's not even a skill he perfected: He's much younger than the challenger. At 38.7, Silva is long past the date when he should have been expected to start slowing down. And perhaps we saw evidence of that decline in his last fight. But perhaps not; perhaps Silva just got caught being dumb.

I do not deny that Weidman is a fantastic fighter who is likely to hold the middleweight championship for a very long time. He will. His combination of power, athleticism and wrestling makes him a very dangerous opponent for anyone he will face. But I'm going with the proven veteran here and can recommend a play on Silva anywhere up to -200.

PREDICTION: Anderson Silva by KO, Round 1

THE PLAY: Silva up to -200