Manufacturing is now officially in recession, despite Trump's vow to boost industry https://t.co/ImaEqECAfi — THE TAO OF NOW (@InTheNoosphere) February 10, 2020

Impeachment may be dominating the news, but the less-noticed industrial slump ultimately could pose a greater threat to Trump’s reelection.

As measured by the Federal Reserve, manufacturing output shrank over two straight quarters this year. That’s the common definition of recession.

A separate, widely followed index drawn from purchasing managers showed September’s contraction in manufacturing was the steepest since June 2009, with production, inventories and new orders all falling.

And after adding nearly half a million jobs in the prior two years, which Trump frequently stressed in hard-hat rallies throughout the Midwest, manufacturing employment has stalled.

Instead of healthy job growth, layoff announcements have surged this year, especially in battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. Friday’s jobs report for September showed a slight drop in total factory jobs.

Manufacturing today accounts for only about 10% of economic activity, and so far, the overall economy and employment in the U.S. are still growing. But the pace has slowed considerably this year. The faltering industrial sector has started to crimp businesses in the transportation and warehousing sectors. And there are growing worries of spillover effects in the larger services sector and broader economy.

The impact of the virus is rippling through US businesses. American companies may find it difficult to access components for their manufactured goods, plunging a recovering manufacturing sector back into the long recession it suffered last year https://t.co/fU1MBYX36O — mai.abdulrahman (@maiabdulrahman) February 10, 2020

Manufacturing in the US was heading towards a recession (bc trade war)but it bounced in Jan bc of the (phony) Phase 1 deal. Due to global factors it would not be surprising to see that bounce short lived and manufacturing heading back towards a recession. pic.twitter.com/PyZsUI4fUR — Marlon: $SLV $₳D₳ $PTON🚀🌔 (@mjmmtu) February 9, 2020

Poll numbers are not economic data. GDP growth is decelerating, job growth is no faster than under Obama, US manufacturing is in a recession, and wage growth, which had been strong, is weakening. And this is with trillion dollar deficits and accommodative Fed policy. pic.twitter.com/Ms6mgpmzrt — Clay Ranck (@clayranck) February 8, 2020

It turns out that the economy never had a Trump bump. https://t.co/iBaekWcM0T pic.twitter.com/EsGtmBdtjk — Slate (@Slate) February 9, 2020