The nominations for a key indicator of the Oscars, the Producers Guild of America’s awards, have been announced, solidifying the impression that the Academy Awards is a three-way race.

La La Land, Manchester By the Sea and Moonlight are emerging as the three strongest Oscar contenders, and have all been nominated in the 10-film list for the PGA’s Zanuck trophy, which recognises the year’s best theatrical motion picture. Superhero movie Deadpool is arguably the most surprising entry of the remaining nominations, but Tom Ford’s thriller Nocturnal Animals has been left out, despite strong showings in other awards line-ups.

In the past, the Producers Guild award has been a reliable guide to the subsequent winner of the best picture Oscar, with 19 out of 27 winners of previous awards matching. In 2016, however, the result diverged when The Big Short took the PGA and Spotlight brought home the Oscar.

The guild has also announced its nominations for best animated film, which include the year’s top-grossing film in the US, Finding Dory. Seven out of the 11 previous winners have gone on to win the equivalent Oscar. These join previously revealed contenders in documentary and TV.

The winners will be announced on 28 January at a ceremony in Beverly Hills.

Full list of nominations

Best film

Arrival

Deadpool

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester By the Sea

Moonlight

Best animated film

Finding Dory

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

The Secret Life of Pets

Zootopia

Best documentary

Dancer

The Eagle Huntress

Life, Animated

OJ: Made in America

Tower

Best longform TV

Black Mirror

The Night Manager

The Night Of

The People v OJ Simpson: American Crime Story

Sherlock: The Abominable Bride

Best sports TV

E:60

The Fight Game With Jim Lampley: A Tribute to Muhammad Ali

Hard Knocks: Training Camp With the Los Angeles Rams

Real Sports With Bryant Gumbel

Vice World of Sports

Best digital series

30 for 30 Shorts

Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee

Epic Rap Battles of History

Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD: Academy

National Endowment for the Arts: United States of Arts

Best episodic TV (drama)

Better Call Saul

Game of Thrones

House of Cards

Stranger Things

Westworld

Best episodic TV (comedy)

Atlanta

Black-ish

Modern Family

Silicon Valley

Veep

Best non-fiction TV

30 for 30

60 Minutes

Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown

Hamilton’s America

Making a Murderer

Best competition TV

The Amazing Race

American Ninja Warrior

Lip Sync Battle

Top Chef

The Voice

Best live entertainment & talk TV

Full Frontal With Samantha Bee

Last Week Tonight With John Oliver

The Late Late Show With James Corden

Real Time With Bill Maher

Saturday Night Live

Best children’s TV

Girl Meets World

Octonauts

School of Rock

Sesame Street

SpongeBob SquarePants