Scott Morrison’s slump mirrors Julia Gillard’s before she was replaced by Kevin Rudd in 2013

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

The Morrison government has recorded its third successive 10-point deficit in the latest Newspoll, leaving itself a monumental task to recover before the 2019 election.

The Coalition’s two-party-preferred vote of 45% to Labor’s 55% in the Newspoll confirms a sustained slump at the end of the last parliamentary sitting fortnight of 2018 and is in line with the 46-54 deficit in last week’s Essential poll.

Monday’s result is the first time a government has trailed by 10 points for three consecutive polls since Julia Gillard’s last three Newspolls before she was replaced by Kevin Rudd in 2013.

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Scott Morrison has signalled that the government still intends to return to parliament in February before a 2 April budget and May election, although the size of voter backlash has New South Wales Liberals eager for the federal government to face the music before its March poll and Labor believes Morrison may go early to avoid parliamentary chaos in the new year.

The final Newspoll of the year shows the Coalition’s primary vote at 35% and Labor on 41%. The two-party-preferred vote of 45-55 would equate to the loss of 21 seats for the Coalition and see Labor comfortably elected to majority government if replicated in 2019.

In the fortnight since the last Newspoll the Coalition was rocked by the defection of the Liberal MP Julia Banks to the crossbench, and consumed by an internal battle about the MP Craig Kelly’s preselection.

But despite multiple threats of parliamentary upsets the government was able to head off a potential referral of Peter Dutton to the high court, prevented a lower house vote on a bill to transfer asylum seekers off Manus Island and Nauru, and passed its encryption legislation without opposition amendment.

Approval ratings for both leaders dropped after the chaotic final week of parliament, with Morrison’s rating now in negative territory after his satisfaction dropped a point to 42% and dissatisfaction rose three points to 45%.

Bill Shorten’s approval rating also fell by a point, to 36%, although he closed the gap on Morrison as preferred prime minister, up two points to trail 36% to Morrison’s 44% (down two).

The poll also revealed that 24% of voters believe the Coalition will win the next election, while a majority – 55% – expect Labor will win government in the new year.

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Despite losing more than 30 Newspolls and 80 Guardian Essential polls in a row, Malcolm Turnbull was able to recover the government’s position to a 49-51 deficit for four consecutive Newspolls in July and August before he was dumped by the Liberal party room. In eight Newspolls since the leadership change the Coalition has not polled above 47%.

On Sunday Morrison told reporters in Sydney there was “no change” to his intention for the government to deliver the budget on 2 April before a May election: “That’s what I said. [There is] no change to my position.”

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Next week the government will release the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook , expected to show Australia’s budget is just short of balance in 2018-19 but on track for surplus next year.

Morrison said he was “looking forward to people seeing how well the government has continued to manage the nation’s finances and why it is only the Liberal and Nationals you can trust to run a strong economy”.