Report

AEI Political Report

In this issue of AEI’s Political Report, we look at the public’s evaluations of 2019 and their expectations for 2020. We also review an array of predictions Americans have made starting in the 1940s, when 70 percent of Americans said we would never put man on the moon. Finally, we look at the most popular New Year’s resolutions.

The state of the nation: Looking back and looking ahead

While Americans continue to believe the country is on the wrong track and not heading in the right direction, they are much more optimistic about their own communities and personal lives. There are only small partisan differences in people’s positive views of their community and personal lives in a fall online survey (Public Agenda/USA Today/Ipsos Hidden Common Ground).

More people believe their financial situation is improving (38 percent) than getting worse (20 percent) according to a late November online Harvard Center for American Political Studies/Harris poll. In a question where respondents assessed whether their financial standing improved, most said they and their family are about the same financially as a year ago (41 percent), 28 percent said they are better off, and 22 percent said worse off(December Economist/YouGov online survey).

Sixty-five percent told Gallup in late November that it was a good time to find a quality job, and only 9 percent in an Economist/YouGov December online poll were very worried about losing their jobs.

In the mid-December Quinnipiac University poll, 26 percent of registered voters described the economy these days as “excellent” and another 47 percent as “good.”

People are divided about the economy over the next 12 months. In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from October, 24 percent said it would get better, 27 percent said it will get worse, and 48 percent said it will stay about the same.

The public’s crystal ball

How good are Americans’ predictions? In 1949, 70 percent said Americans would not reach the moon in 50 years. In both 1959 and 1965, around eight in 10 Americans believed a cure for cancer would be found in 20 years (Gallup). Slightly more than a quarter felt we would be working a three-day week in 1980. Thirty-one percent in 1965 thought many women would be wearing topless bathing suits on beaches in 20 years (Gallup).

In 1974 and 1984, large majorities said their children or grandchildren would face severe water and, separately, air pollution in 25 to 50 years. Around six in 10 said they would face overpopulation and a shortage of energy supplies (Roper Organization).

The Roper Organization asked about the “greenhouse effect” in 1984 and found that 37 percent thought their children or grandchildren would face it in 25 to 50 years. In a separate item, 27 percent thought they would be facing decreasing world temperatures. A quarter in 1974 said it was very likely the US would run out of oil in 50 years (Opinion Research Corporation).

In 1999, when asked which of two things was more likely to happen over the next 50 years, more Americans said the economy would be stronger (64 percent) than weaker (31 percent) and that race relations would improve (68 percent) rather than get worse (28 percent). Forty-one percent said the honesty and ethics among our elected leaders would improve, while 52 percent said they would get worse (Pew Research Center).

In 2014 questions about what would happen in the next 50 years, 82 percent said people who needed an organ transplant and could have new organs custom made for them would definitely or probably happen. Only 19 percent thought humans would be able to control the weather (Pew Research Center).

Thirty-six percent in a 2015 Pew poll said their current job would definitely or probably exist in 50 years.

When asked in 2018 about things that would happen in the next 50 years, majorities said we would routinely use implanted sensors to monitor or adjust food and medication. Separately, 52 percent thought we would eliminate almost all birth defects (Pew Research Center).

Ordinary life: New Year’s resolutions and Fitbits

Thirty-eight percent told Ipsos/Urban Plates in an online survey that they have New Year’s resolutions planned for 2020. Financial and health resolutions top the list for those making resolutions (Ipsos). Eighty percent in a YouGov poll from December 2018 agreed most people don’t stick to their New Year’s resolutions.

Nineteen percent in a November Gallup poll say they currently wear a fitness tracker, such as a Fitbit or smartwatch, and 15 percent have done so in the past.

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