MD-7 Special Election Primary Preview

This Tuesday is the special primary for the vacant MD-7 congressional seat, vacated by the death last year of Rep. Elijah Cummings (D). We are running this preview a bit early because of the Iowa Caucuses on Monday. MD-7, lovely home of your esteemed editor, is a heavily gerrymandered Black-majority D+26 seat covering most of the Black-majority parts of Baltimore City, along with mutli-ethnic middle class suburbs of western Baltimore County around Catonsville, a tail to wealthy GOP-leaning exurbs to the north around Sparks. The seat also includes the northern 2/3 or so of Howard County to the west, largely upper-middle-class suburbs and exurbs, including upscale moderates in the Ellicott City area and limousine liberals in northern and western Columbia. A ridiculous number of candidates are running in the primary – 24 (!!) Democrats and 8 Republicans, of which 9 Democrats and 1 Republican are serious enough to discuss. Polls close at 8p ET and we will be liveblogging.

Maya Rockeymoore-Cummings

Ex-MD Dem Chair Maya Rockeymoore-Cummings (D) is the widow of Elijah. Rockeymoore-Cummings has had a long career behind the scenes in liberal politics. After earning a PhD in political science, she worked as a congressional staffer for much of her career before leaving to run a consulting firm. Rockeymoore-Cummings ran an abortive gubernatorial campaign in 2018, dropping out before the primary after failing to gain traction. After the race, she was named as chair of the Maryland Democratic Party, stepping down to run for this seat after her husband died. Her tenure at the state party was widely regarded as a failure, as she was criticized for overspending and mismanaging the party’s finances. Rockeymoore-Cummings also has been hit for allegedly improperly mingling the finances of her for-profit business and a nonprofit foundation she ran. She is running in her late husband’s mold as an establishment liberal with some bold progressive tendencies, and has been mounting a very cautious campaign, mostly avoiding unnecessary appearances and trying to remain vague on policy. Her fundraising has been mediocre to good, with her hauls of around $200K underwhelming but enough to keep up with her major rivals in the field’s top tier.

Kweisi Mfume

The other universally-known candidate in the field is Ex-Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D), who is seeking a comeback at age 71. A former delinquent in his youth and one of Baltimore’s most shrill voices during the later part of the civil rights era, Mfume represented a prior iteration of the district for a decade from 1986 to 1996, when he resigned to become head of the NAACP. Mfume is credited with strong leadership at the organization, which renewed the relevance of an organization regarded to be past its prime when he took over. However, in this race, whispers have resurfaced that he was forced out as NAACP chair due to sexual harassment allegations. Mfume attempted a comeback with a Senate bid in 2006. However, concerns about his electability, even in deep-blue Maryland, pushed most establishment Dems to back his less-liberal primary rival, now-Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Considered a left-wing radical in his early career, Mfume is a good example of the leftward drift in the Dem coalition, as he is now running as an establishment liberal and towards the moderate side of this field. He has been playing up his longtime friendship with Cummings (whom he eulogized at the funeral) to blunt Rockeymoore-Cummings’s sympathy advantage, and touts endorsements from two of Cummings’s three sisters. Mfume’s fundraising has been good but not great, modestly outpacing Rockeymoore-Cummings with total hauls around $250K.

Mike Higginbotham

Law school dean Mike Higginbotham (D) is the best-funded candidate in the field by far. Thanks to $500K in self-funding, Higginbotham has been able to outspend his nearest rival by more than 2:1, and he has raised a significant amount from donors as well. Higginbotham has not had any political involvement, but is still prominent in the Baltimore community as the longtime dean of the University of Baltimore Law School. Higginbotham is running as an establishment-friendly bold progressive, a bit to the left of Rockeymoore-Cummings and Mfume but not overwhelmingly so. Higginbotham entered the race with little name recognition, but his spending has made him a real factor and could allow him to surprise.

Saafir Rabb

Businessman and Obama aide Saafir Rabb (D) was little-known prior to announcing his candidacy, but has made himself a factor with good-but-not-great fundraising, marginally outraising Rockeymoore-Cummings, without any self-funding. Rabb, who owns a construction company, is prominent in the local Muslim community and appears to have been able to tap into those networks. Ideologically, Rabb straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive, generally establishment liberal on fiscal issues and bold progressive on cultural issues. Rabb has the resources to be a contender, but his low name recognition is likely still a major handicap with the compressed timeline.

Talmadge Branch

State Rep. Talmadge Branch (D) is a longtime legislator, representing northeast Baltimore City for a quarter-century. Branch is a big fish in the legislature, serving as the House’s third-ranking Democrat, and served as a congressional staffer early in his career. However, though his insider connections are strong, Branch is relatively little-known among the broader public. He is running as an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies, making him the most moderate serious candidate in the field. Branch’s fundraising has been poor, barely enough to run a credible campaign, but he probably still takes a significant vote share from around his legislative district.

Jill Carter

State Sen. Jill Carter (D) has been a longtime representative of western Baltimore City in the legislature, serving a decade and a half in the House before being appointed and then elected to the State Senate in 2018. Carter is a down-the-line bold progressive on both economic and cultural issues, staking a reasonable claim to being the most left-wing serious candidate in the field. She has been considered a leader for antiestablishment progressives in the legislature, and has a notable endorsement from left-wing 2018 gubernatorial nominee Ben Jealous (D). However, Carter’s fundraising has been poor, barely enough to run a credible campaign. Carter is a longer-shot but does have a powerful personal brand with the left wing that could make her a factor.

Terri Hill

State Rep. Terri Hill (D) has represented the Columbia area in the legislature for six years, making her the only serious candidate from Howard County in the race. Hill has a sterling non-political resume as a Harvard-educated plastic surgeon. However, her political involvement has not been quite as impressive, spending most of her time in the legislature as a backbench establishment liberal. She is running as a mainstream establishment liberal in this race. Hill’s fundraising has been poor, barely enough to run a credible campaign. She is a long-shot but could be a factor by running up the score in Howard County.

Jay Jalisi

State Rep. Jay Jalisi (D) has served six years representing the middle-class-Black Randallstown area of Baltimore County, which is largely outside the district. As an immigrant from Pakistan, he is the only notable non-Black candidate in the field, as well as the only notable Dem from Baltimore County. Jalisi has had mediocre fundraising, but thanks to modest self-funding, he is still among the better-funded candidates here. He is a retired surgeon and running as a bold progressive. However, Jalisi is best-known for being publicly reprimanded by his legislative colleagues last year for allegedly bullying and mistreating his staffers, including making them work without pay. Jalisi has also had other personal scandals, including having a restraining order filed against him by his daughter, and being fined $2500 for campaign finance violations. That baggage means Jalisi is unlikely to be a serious threat to win, but he still may take a significant vote share.

Harry Spikes

Elijah Cummings staffer Harry Spikes (D) was Cummings’s longtime district director, and notably received the endorsement of two of Cummings’s children over their stepmother, along with one of Cummings’s sisters, in a major embarrassment for Rockeymoore-Cummings. He is running in the Cummings mold as an establishment liberal with some bold progressive tendencies. However, Spikes’s own political skills seem questionable at best, as his only political foray was a 7th-place finish in a 3-seat State House primary in 2014. Spikes has not fundraised enough to run a credible campaign, and while his ties to Cummings may net him a few votes, he seems unlikely to be a serious threat to win.

Kim Klacik

Overall, CW is that this is a two-person race between Rockeymoore-Cummings and Mfume, with no clear favorite between the two. With the race between the two becoming somewhat nasty, Higginbotham could have an outside chance to sneak up the middle and surprise, especially since turnout is likely to be low. Rabb, Branch, Carter, Hill, and even Jalisi all probably take significant vote shares, but none of those candidates are likely to come out on top barring an unexpected lightning strike.

On the GOP side, local GOP official and nonprofit exec Kim Klacik (R), who lives well outside the seat in Baltimore’s eastern suburbs, is the only Republican who has fundraised credibly for the race. Klacik is best known for a tweet criticizing social ills in Baltimore, which was picked up by Trump to criticize Elijah Cummings before his death. Klacik has raised barely enough to run a credible campaign, but that still puts her well ahead of the unfunded, unknown Some Dude Rs who are also in the race. Thus, she is likely to win the primary, but Klacik or any other Republican should pose no threat to the Dem nominee in the general thanks to the deep-blue nature of the seat. RRH Elections currently rates this special election as Safe D.

There are also four legislative specials this week, generals in Minnesota, a Louisiana Rules Top Two race in Georgia, and a primary in Massachusetts.

MN-LD-30A is an R+17 seat in northwest Twin Cities exurbs around Big Lake and Elk River. Cop Paul Novotny (R) should be a strong favorite over businessman Chad Hobot (D).

MN-LD-60A is a D+30 seat covering most of the northeast quarter of Minneapolis, a mix of hipsterish areas and some poorer multi-ethnic pockets. Environmental nonprofit exec Sydney Jordan (D) is the prohibitive favorite over a Legal Marijuana Now Party (yes, that’s a real thing in MN) candidate.

GA-SD-13 is a rural R+20 seat covering a broad swath of south-central Georgia east of Albany, including Tifton, Cordele, and Eastman. Three candidates are facing off, two Republicans and a Dem. Ex-Leesburg Mayor Jim Quinn (R) is seeking to fall upward after narrowly losing the runoff for a State House special just two months ago. He is facing off with developer Carden Summers (R), who narrowly lost a run for this seat way back in 2002. The lone Dem is perennial candidate Mary Egler (D). A runoff between Quinn and Summers seems the most likely scenario, but either could prevail outright, and there is no clear favorite between the two. While there is a slight chance enough Dems could turn out to put Egler into a runoff and render the second round moot, it seems unlikely.

MA-LD-32nd Middlesex is a D+15 seat covering all of Melrose, the western half of Wakefield, and a small piece of Malden, all in the second-ring northern Boston suburbs. Three Democrats are facing off, Wakefield councilwoman Ann McGonigle-Santos (D), Melrose councilwoman Kate Lipper-Garabedian (D), and legislative staffer Mathew Helman (D). There is no clear favorite and any of the three could prevail. Republicans are not contesting this seat.