VANCOUVER—The vacancy at the top of Canada’s diplomatic mission in China is likely to remain unfilled so long as tensions between the two countries continue to simmer, say former Canadian ambassadors.

Canada’s December arrest of Huawei CFO at the behest of the United States enraged Beijing, which quickly moved to detain a pair of Canadians — diplomat-on-leave Michael Kovrig and entrepreneur Michael Spavor — in what observers have called a retaliatory “hostage-taking.”

A third man, Robert Lloyd Schellenberg, was sentenced to death in January following a one-day retrial in a Chinese court for drug offences for which he’d already been tried and sentenced to 15 years in prison.

This series of events — along with Beijing’s more recent moves to block key Canadian canola-seed shipments — indicate an atmosphere in which obtaining Beijing’s approval for a new Canadian head of mission is unlikely in the extreme, Guy St. Jacques, Canada’s ambassador to China between 2012 and 2016, told The Star Vancouver.

“If we look forward, we will still be faced with the problem of having Ms. Meng here during summer,” Saint-Jacques, now a Senior Fellow at the China Institute of the University of Alberta, said of the likelihood tensions would resolve in the near future. “I’m afraid this will drag on for a while.”

The thorough domestic vetting process for Canadian ambassadors means even at the best of times, finalizing a new head of mission can take months, Saint-Jacques said. Candidates must be approved at multiple levels of government all the way up to the Privy Council Office.

Read more:

Espionage claims against Canadians are retaliation for Huawei exec’s extradition moving forward, say analysts

Rebuke of China from Canada’s allies clearest and best diplomatic path forward, say experts

What we know and don’t know about Robert Schellenberg’s death sentence in China

But even after Ottawa's approval, an ambassador's assignment is not formally recognized until the Chinese government agrees to an envoy's appointment. After their arrival, Ambassadors must also present their "letters of credence" to the president of the state alongside other diplomats in an official ceremony.

It took three weeks for the Chinese government to agree to Saint-Jacques' own assignment, which he said was a "pretty fast" turnaround. And because he narrowly missed an opportunity to present his letters of credence, it took a full two months before his formal recognition was finalized.

Saint-Jacques said his successor, John McCallum, was able to present his letters the day after his arrival in Beijing, as a ceremony with other Ambassadors was already scheduled.

But if history is any indication, he added, no further presentations will be permitted while Meng remains in Canadian custody.

He pointed to friction between China and Norway in 2010 over the decision to award a Nobel Peace Prize to imprisoned democracy advocate Liu Xiaobo. Aside from a stalled trade deal between the countries and Beijing’s move to largely block Norwegian salmon exports over the Peace Prize dispute, Norway’s ambassador to China, Svein O. Sæther, remained in his post for more than twice the typical four-year tenure over fears Beijing would refuse to confirm a replacement.

Since McCallum was forced to resign in January, Canada’s embassy in Beijing has been led by Chargé d’Affaires Jim Nickel — a career foreign service officer and deputy head of mission in Beijing since August 2018.

Following McCallum’s resignation, former diplomats spoke critically of the practice of appointing politicians to ambassadorial positions, suggesting such individuals may lack the skills necessary to navigate an environment as nuanced and complex as a diplomatic mission in China.

McCallum, who was a Liberal member of parliament for more than a decade-and-a-half, was the only Canadian ambassador to China to have previously held elected office since a Canadian embassy was opened in Beijing in 1971.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

But an ambassadorial posting isn’t purely about governmental relations, Saint-Jacques said. A head of mission to Beijing oversees administrative affairs for roughly 300 employees in addition to being responsible for building connections in foreign communities including the business, academic and media sectors.

There is also the challenge of dealing with the “parallel structure” of the Chinese Communist Party, from within which the real decision-making power emerges, Saint-Jacques said.

“To my knowledge, no ambassador has accessed the inner circle of (Communist Party leadership),” he said.

Saint-Jacques said there are currently several candidates whose experience and skill set, including being a Mandarin-speaker, would qualify them for consideration to succeed McCallum.

But David Mulroney, who served as Canadian ambassador to China between 2009 and 2012, said there may be larger, systemic issues which could make finding a replacement for McCallum a challenge.

“It takes a lot of time to find the right person,” he told The Star Vancouver in an email.

“Not everybody can suddenly pull up stakes and move to Beijing. We have some exceptional people, but the pool is not deep, which makes it even harder. We’re paying for years of underinvesting in China competence.”

Yet despite the absence of a formally recognized head of mission in Beijing, Saint-Jacques said Canada’s diplomatic options are not yet exhausted.

“The goal right now is to restore dialogue,” he said, adding Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland might weigh in with a formal letter to her counterpart in China requesting “that this national security and rule of law dialogue be convened,” he suggested.

A missive from an official as senior as Freeland could help pull relations back from their current “deep freeze,” he said, as well as serve to warn Beijing that continued punitive measures against Canada will “force us to take our own measures.”

Correction - April 12, 2019: This article was edited from a previous version that mistakenly conflated the order in which the processes of "agrément" the formal "presentation of letters of credence" occurred for Guy Saint-Jacques in Beijing. As well, Saint-Jacques initially told StarMetro that John McCallum's presentation of letters the day after his arrival in Beijing signalled the Chinese government "welcomed his nomination." He has since learned that, the official ceremony during which McCallum's presentation of letters occurred may have only coincidentally been scheduled for the day after his arrival in Beijing. As well, David Mulroney suggested that Chrystia Freeland might send a formal letter requesting that the national security and rule of law dialogue be “convened”, not, “contained”.

Read more about: