Malcolm Turnbull has begun calling the five lower house independents who could decide who forms the next Australian government, despite arguing throughout the election campaign that minority government would be chaotic and a disaster for the nation.



Facing the real possibility of falling short of the 76 seats he needs to form a majority government, Turnbull began contingency planning, making calls on Sunday morning that Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie said were aimed at ensuring “channels of communication” were open.

Liberal strategists agreed it was possible Turnbull would fall short of a majority. Labor sources said on Sunday they believed a hung parliament was now the most likely outcome. The Coalition suffered a nationwide 3.7% swing and has lost 11 seats to Labor, with at least six more in doubt. Results will not be known until counting resumes on Tuesday.

A hung parliament would leave each leader seeking to form a government with some degree of backing from the five lower house independents – Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter and the new Nick Xenophon Team MP, Rebekha Sharkie. Greens MP Adam Bandt has said he could not support the Coalition.

It opens the prospect of a repeat of 2010 when Australia waited 17 days while Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott sought to form a government.

But this time neither leader would be able to secure formal agreements from many on the crossbench, as Gillard did.

Wilkie and Victorian independent Cathy McGowan have said they will do no formal deal with either party, but have left open the prospect of agreeing to pass supply and allowing a government to function unless the parliament saw reason to pass a vote of no confidence.

Speaking to reporters in Tasmania, where he easily retained his seat of Denison, Wilkie said: “The prime minister called me this morning, and there is actually no remarkable substance of that discussion to recount to you. It was ensuring that the channels of communication are open and I took the opportunity to tell him of my election commitment to the community about no deals, and he was quite understanding about that.

“I want to make it absolutely clear again today that I went to this election with a position that I would not enter into any form of agreement with any party to allow them to form government and nothing has changed,” he said.

“And no informal agreement either. To be absolutely clear, I will approach every item of parliamentary business on its merits, including budget supply, including confidence. That’s not to say that there isn’t a negotiation over every vote, over every bill, over every motion. There has to be.”

Turnbull also called Cathy McGowan on Sunday to congratulate her on her victory, telling her he still thought he could get a majority.

She told him she would do no formal deal. She has said she would look at every piece of legislation that comes up as she has done for the past two and a half years and consult her community.

I will not be making any deals with any party. The prime minister is confident he will form majority government #indivotes — Cathy McGowan (@Indigocathy) July 3, 2016

Greens leader senator Richard Di Natale said on Sunday the Greens would now have to “sit down and have constructive negotiations with the Labor party to see what multiparty government looks like.”

South Australian senator Nick Xenophon said he also thought Turnbull would “just get across the line”, but if there was a hung parliament he and his party would “sit down in good faith from the perspective of the political centre to talk to both sides of politics”.

He said a “big factor” in deciding who to support would be which party had won the most seats. “You would be silly to ignore the weight of arithmetic,” he said.

Bob Katter, who was part of the 17 days of negotiations in 2010 when Gillard and Abbott sought the support of the independents but ultimately did not do a deal, said he was “already working on a list of demands”.

“There will definitely be a very powerful position for Xenophon and myself to play and for Andrew Wilkie,” he said.

Katter’s demands in 2010 were sweeping and covered almost every aspect of government policy.

Gillard eventually signed agreements with the Greens, and independents Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie. But the reality was not much different to a major party governing with only the basic assurances of supply and confidence. Wilkie ended the deal in 2012, the Greens ended theirs in 2013 and the government continued.

During the election campaign both leaders signed a “solemn pledge” drafted by the Daily Telegraph ruling out a “deal or alliance” with the Greens, but neither entirely ruled out seeking to govern in the event of a hung parliament if enough of the crossbench agreed to the two basic prerequisites – to support the money bills needed for the government to function and not to support a no-confidence motion moved by the other side.