Democrats looking for Rand Paul opponent

Joseph Gerth | Opinion Columnist | Louisville Courier Journal

When state Rep. Mike Harmon upset Kentucky Auditor Adam Edelen in the Nov. 3 election, the Democrats lost more than just someone in a “watchdog” office who could keep an eye on the administration of incoming Gov. Matt Bevin.

They lost the best hope for a U.S. Senate candidate to challenge Rand Paul and lead the ticket in a year that they desperately need some top-of-the-ticket pizzazz to inspire voters to come out for down-ticket candidates who can help them hold onto the state House of Representatives.

Edelen, who until Election Day appeared to be gearing up to challenge Paul, said he hopes to one day resume his political career but he’s headed back into the private sector for now.

“I’m waiting for bluer skies,” he said. “The environment is just not conducive to electing Democrats statewide. … It’s a very difficult environment for Democrats.”

Patrick Hughes, chairman of the state Democratic Party, said he’s hopeful that the party will be able to come up with a top-tier candidate to challenge Paul, who Democrats believe is weakened by a presidential run that has faltered.

But Hughes admits that he’s not sure who that might be.

“We have some strong candidates who might be able to take advantage of some excitement on the national level,” he said.

Talk in the party has largely settled around actress Ashley Judd and state Veterans Affairs Commissioner Heather French Henry, and there are some in the party who are holding out hope that some wealthy business person who’s not been involved in politics before will step forward.

Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer, who lost the Democratic primary to challenge Sen. Mitch McConnell in 2008, is also often mentioned as a possible challenger.

Henry said she’s not even thinking about the race right now and that she wants to get to Dec. 8 when Bevin will be sworn in and her appointment ends. (It’s unlikely that Bevin would reappoint her to the post after he was critical in May of Gov. Steve Beshear’s appointment of her.)

“The idea that we would have a veterans’ administration not run by a veteran, for starters, is a little bit odd to me,” he said six months ago. “There’s a big difference between the civilian sector and the military ranks. … We need somebody in charge of the veterans’ affairs and the things that affect us as veterans that has literally walked or rucked in our boots.”

Henry said her plan is to head back to her foundation that helps veterans when her job as commissioner ends. Though she didn’t rule out a run completely, she said a federal office may not be the best fit for her now.

“My daughters are 12 and 14 and the idea of being gone, you know, three to four days a week … those are very impressionable times and years for my daughters, so my family would be the biggest reason for my decision to not seek a federal office,” she said.

Judd’s publicist didn’t return an email seeking comment.

Fischer doesn’t seem eager to jump into the race. “The mayor enjoys being mayor,” said Chris Poynter, his spokesman.

Republicans have all the momentum in the state, having won races for governor and lieutenant governor, treasurer, auditor and agriculture commissioner in the November election and having convinced state Rep. Denny Butler, of Louisville, to join the GOP in recent weeks.

They have reduced the Democratic majority in the House to 53-47 and hope to flip control of the chamber for the first time in nearly 100 years during the November elections.

Hughes said the party’s biggest concern is to win two upcoming special elections that will be needed to replace state Reps. Ryan Quarles and Harmon, both Republicans who won races for agriculture commissioner and auditor.

If they can do that, they hope they can slow GOP momentum that has shifted the state from a Democratic to Republican stronghold over the last 25 years.

He argues that the state House and U.S. Senate races are not intertwined because they will be run on different issues. “As it relates to the U.S. Senate campaign, I think that’s independently important for the Democrats to field a candidate, and it has to be a competitive candidate,” he said.

And while Hughes said it’s important to have a strong Democrat running for the Senate, it’s not nearly as important for down-ticket races as it was in 2014 when Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes tied up Sen. Mitch McConnell and forced him to spend his time focusing on his re-election rather than raising money for state House candidates.

“She was able to draw the attention of Sen. McConnell and his machine away from the House,” he said. “I don’t know if that’s going to be possible this go-round because Sen. McConnell isn’t going to be occupied with that and we’d be naive to think he isn’t interested with what happens with the House races.”

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Louisville, said he believes it’s important for Democrats to find a strong candidate but he’s not certain that will be the determining factor when it comes to control of the state House.

For one thing, he said that Hillary Clinton is likely to be the Democratic Presidential nominee and that former President Bill Clinton has assured him that Hillary Clinton would campaign in Kentucky.

“I talked to the president and they are going to be active here,” Yarmuth said.

Even if Clinton doesn’t spend heavily to win in Kentucky, large swaths of Kentucky will see her ads because she will compete in Indiana and Ohio and will be forced to buy air time on Louisville and Cincinnati television, Yarmuth said.

Without a strong candidate for U.S. Senate spending heavily in the state, “it makes it more difficult” for the Democrats to hold onto the state House. Bevin’s performance is really what’s most important, Yarmuth said.

“If this administration works well, it will make it harder for us. If it’s a train wreck it makes it easier,” he said.

Joseph Gerth can be reached at 502-582-4702 or jgerth@courier-journal.com. Follow him on Twitter at @Joe_Gerth .