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Boris Johnson is the people’s choice to become the next Conservative leader — but arch-rival George Osborne is ahead among Tory supporters, an exclusive poll reveals today.

Ipsos MORI found almost twice as many members of the public are attracted to vote Tory if the Mayor of London rather than the Chancellor takes charge.

But among Conservative supporters, Mr Osborne edges ahead. The difference is crucial because the votes of Tory members will decide who becomes David Cameron’s successor.

Home Secretary Theresa May is slightly ahead of the Chancellor among members of the public but in third place with Tories, the poll found. Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Business Secretary Sajid Javid scored four and three per cent among the public.

The research for the Evening Standard comes as Tories gather in Manchester this weekend for their first party conference since Mr Cameron fired the leadership race starting gun by saying he would not fight another general election as Prime Minister.

Education Secretary Nicky Morgan entered the fray today after telling the Spectator magazine it was high time for another woman party leader and that she would consider standing.

The poll highlights the dilemma for Tory MPs and party members when Mr Cameron retires, possibly in early 2019 — whether to choose the Mayor with the popular touch, or reward the powerful Chancellor who steered the party through austerity to its first general election victory since 1992. Mr Johnson’s star is widely seen to have waned since the election and reshuffle, which consolidated Mr Osborne’s influence.

But some Tory MPs say Mr Johnson’s prospects would revive if the economy stalls or if Labour climbs in the polls. Among the key findings of the poll:

Asked which potential leader would make them most likely to vote Tory, 27 per cent of the public named Mr Johnson, 17 per cent chose Mrs May and 15 per cent picked Mr Osborne.

Among Conservative supporters, the results were 32 per cent for Mr Osborne, 29 per cent for Mr Johnson and 18 per cent for Mrs May.

Among voters aged 18 to 34, Mr Johnson was ahead on 28 per cent, with Mrs May at 15 and Mr Osborne trailing on 10. Among the over-55s, there was little difference between the three.

Boris also pulled in the working class C2DE group, scoring 31 per cent to Mrs May’s 13 and Mr Osborne’s 11.

Four in 10 Ukip supporters say they would be most tempted to vote Tory with the Mayor in charge. Mrs May appealed most to nearly two in 10 while Mr Osborne only attracted one in 10.

Today’s research also reveals that optimism about Britain’s economic prospects has dropped to its lowest level since June 2013. The proportion of people who think things will get better over the next 12 months dipped from 42 per cent in July to 35 per cent now. The proportion who think things will get worse surged from 28 to 34.

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, said: “There is a striking divide in views of George Osborne, reflecting his position at the centre of political debate.

“Conservative supporters put him at the top of the list to be their next leader, but voters of other parties say he is much less likely to win their vote.”