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Lance Radermacher

By Lance Radermacher, a freelance writer from Auburn, Alabama. He has a degree in Economics from Texas A&M University.

If your obsession with Election '16 is anything like mine, paying attention to the barrage of presidential polls are part of your daily routine. They shouldn't keep you up at night.

If this were any presidential election, as a Trump supporter, I'd be concerned as polls suggest he trails nationally to Hillary Clinton and performing poorly in several key battleground states -- but this isn't any ordinary presidential election.

So unordinary in fact, a recent survey reported by CBS News in New Hampshire, only one percent of likely voters say that we have "two good options" in the presidential race. ONE PERCENT! With this kind of opinion even with a large margin of error, the polling we see is more volatile than the mainstream media would have you believe.



There are many reasons to be a polling skeptic. The media is largely underestimating the number of voters who want serious change with our country's political landscape. The passion we saw for Bernie Sanders at the DNC and the fact Trump defeated 19 other career politicians in the Republican primary is enough for me that Americans want real change -- upending, till it up, tear it apart, and start over kind of change.



The same kind of enthusiastic ideological base recently passed one of the largest global referendums in history opening the door for Great Britain to leave the European Union (Brexit).



The vote to leave the union largely manifested from anti-immigration sentiments and threat of terrorism it brings. There was also an undercurrent of national self-determination in those who wanted sovereignty back in the hands of the people; not some "big government" entity. Sound familiar?



You know what else was ironic about Brexit? The pre-election polling numbers were massively understated to leave the union. With just 30 days prior to the Brexit vote, Ipsos Mori, the second largest market research organization in the UK, gave "remain" a 55-37 lead with 8% saying they were undecided or wouldn't vote. In other words, the pollsters got it wrong. The pollsters, number crunching economists, currency traders, even Britain's most touted odds makers were way off.



So what went wrong? Many likely voters had a lot of influence with the polling numbers to remain in the union but rather opted not to vote at all on June 24th. This is one of the biggest reasons why early polling has become largely untrustworthy. Some experts will tell you that when likely voters are polled, sometimes up to 50% or more still stay home.



If you disagree, let's say for a moment the presidential race polling data is largely correct.



Trump is raising big money; yet hasn't spent a penny to date on television advertising. He will. Clearly the major news networks aren't doing him any favors as well. They sift through his rally speeches with a fine-toothed comb and show you what they want you to see. No surprises there.



Trump isn't a political showman. He struggles with being political at all. But when it comes to immigration, protecting our borders, and wiping out global terrorism at its' grass roots -- he gets it. When it comes to changing a federal government with virtually no accountability, wasteful spending, and this spawning epidemic of executive privilege -- he gets it. His supporters get it.



Then there is Hillary.



The worst thing the Clinton camp is facing is there is still 80+ days until the election. Even with a so-called clear path to the White House, Hillary is her own worst enemy. The ugly skeletons in her closet are being dusted off and thrown in publics view every day. She doesn't get immigration as an immanent threat to the homeland; her support of Barak Obama's foreign policy makes our nation weaker and a big target to radical Islamic terrorists and the countries abroad that support their training.



Trends will change. Popularity will shift. It's not even the fourth quarter yet.



Campaign '16 will likely play out in a vicious and stupefying manner as it has since the conventions. While polling is an important component for allocating campaign resources, don't let it get the best of you and most of all; don't underestimate the most likely person to actually vote is the one who wants it to count.