Good morning, this is Eleanor Ainge Roy bringing you the main stories and must-reads on Tuesday 1 May.

Top stories

Melbourne’s water supply is at risk because decades of logging and forest loss from large bushfires has triggered the imminent collapse of the mountain ash forests in Victoria’s central highlands, ecologists have warned. New research led by Prof David Lindenmayer of the Australian National University has found the ecosystem has already begun to undergo a “hidden collapse”, meaning it may appear superficially intact, but the lag time in recovering old-growth forests – the linchpin in preserving mountain ash ecosystems – “means that collapse is almost inevitable”.

Most of Melbourne’s water catchments are in mountain ash forests. If those forests have been damaged or are still growing, Lindenmayer said, they draw 12 megalitres more water per hectare per year than forests that are more than 100 years old. In the Upper Thomson catchment, which feeds Melbourne’s largest water supply dam, the Thomson reservoir, about 61% of the trees have been logged. “That’s a serious issue because two-thirds of all the rainfall in that catchment falls on one-third of the area and that’s the ash forest … that’s called an own goal,” Lindenmayer said.

Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Iran of continuing to hide and expand its nuclear weapons knowhow after a 2015 agreement with global powers, presenting what the Israeli prime minister claimed was “new and conclusive proof”. However, Netanyahu’s evidence has already been seen by the UN nuclear watchdog, among other global bodies, as early as 2005. The International Atomic Energy Agency judged that substantial work on nuclear weapons development in Iran ceased in 2003, and that there was no evidence of weapons research after 2009. Donald Trump is due to decide in the next few weeks whether to continue to abide by the 2015 deal by waiving US sanctions on Iran.

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The ageing Liddell power plant will be out of the system by 2023 without causing a rise in energy prices, according to technical work undertaken for the national energy guarantee. The government has been keen to highlight the risks of rising power prices for consumers in the event AGL does not extend Liddell’s life, but the modelling, which assumes the power plant retires, says wholesale energy prices under the Neg will be 30% lower than under business as usual by 2030. It suggests the Neg would ameliorate at least some of the upward pressure on prices caused by Liddell’s retirement after 2022. On Monday AGL confirmed it had received a nonbinding and “highly conditional” $250m cash offer from Alinta and its Hong Kong-based owner, Chow Tai Fook Enterprises, for the power station and site.

Penny Wong says Tony Abbott’s decision to repeal the carbon price after the 2013 election damaged Australia’s international reputation on climate change, and a Shorten government would try to claw back Australia’s credibility on the issue. In the text of a speech to be given in Melbourne on Tuesday, Labor’s foreign affairs spokeswoman says Labor will beef up international approaches to combating climate change including reinstituting the position of climate change ambassador and broadening Australia’s work in the Pacific. Wong says both Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull “have diminished Australia’s influence and voice in the world”.

The government has announced details of its one-stop-shop for financial complaints following damaging revelations from the banking royal commission. All Australian financial services licencees, Australian credit licencees, superannuation trustees and other financial firms will be required to become members of the Australian Financial Complaints Authority by 21 September. The authority will replace the financial ombudsman service, the credit and investments ombudsman and the superannuation complaints tribunal. “For the first time ever, consumers will be able to go to one place to resolve any kind of financial complaint,” the financial services minister, Kelly O’Dwyer, said.

Sport

How does Australia feel about rugby in western Sydney? The news that the Penrith Emus have been booted out of the Shute Shield has only reinforced the game’s image as one for toffs from affluent suburbs, and highlights why there are not more Kurtley Beales playing for the Wallabies, writes Bret Harris.

Garbiñe Muguruza, the 2017 Wimbledon champion, says people often find it hard to accept that ruthlessness and femininity can go together. “You can be angry and competitive and a fighter and you can also be nice and wear something by Stella McCartney,” she tells Donald McRae. Muguruza says it’s important for prominent women to speak up in support of the #MeToo movement on behalf of others: “If an Oscar winner speaks about it then it goes everywhere. But if the waitress says this has happened to her nobody really listens.”



Thinking time

What is it like to be a food delivery rider in the so-called gig economy? Naaman Zhou talks to current and former riders in Australia about accidents, stress and uncertainty. “We used to get group messages saying ‘Stay safe out there’ says one. “But that’s totally at odds with pumping out orders on a rainy night. It means nothing.” Patrick says he has been “doored” twice while Daniel has twisted his ankle four times and Joaquin ended up in hospital with eight stitches in his leg.

New South Wales was one of the first places in the world to legalise sex work, in 1995, and its sex workers and their allies have a strong advocacy role in other countries. But what has happened to the state’s estimated 10,000 sex workers in the past 23 years? And what does the future hold? In this photo essay six sex workers talk about their personal experiences.

The question of housing affordability is dominated by talk of house prices and interest rates. But for those trying to survive on government support, the problem of housing is not about buying a home, but being able to find an affordable place to rent. According to the latest Anglicare rental affordability snapshot, a “household with two adults on the minimum wage and two kids might be able to afford a one-bedroom apartment in Sydney, but it makes little sense to count that as ‘affordable’, given the size of the property would not be fit for that family’s needs”, writes Greg Jericho.

What’s he done now?

Donald Trump has floated the idea of his meeting with Kim Jong-un taking place on the North/South Korea border. “Numerous countries are being considered for the MEETING, but would Peace House/Freedom House, on the Border of North & South Korea, be a more Representative, Important and Lasting site than a third party country? Just asking!” Trump tweeted.

Media roundup

The Sydney Morning Herald reports on reassurances from businessman David Gonski, who says his landmark review of education is an “evolution” rather than a revolution, and basic subjects such as maths and English will remain at the core of the curriculum. The tax office will start analysing the type of car Australians own, in an attempt to catch tax cheats concealing secret earnings, the Courier Mail reports.

And the ABC reports on Australian neo-Nazis fighting in the forgotten Ukrainian war, with authorities unable to stop them going, or prevent them returning home.

Coming up

Cardinal George Pell will find out this morning if he will have to stand trial on historical sexual abuse charges. Pell’s four-week committal hearing ended in late March and the judge is due to hand down the verdict in Melbourne today.

The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, arrives in Sydney this afternoon for a three-day visit that will include discussions on defence cooperation with Australia.

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