Manitoba premier’s job approval plunges to all-time low as he fights to retain party leadership

December 16, 2014 – Manitoba premier Greg Selinger’s job approval has sunk to an all-time low as he fends off a challenge to his leadership. Among respondents in his province, fewer than one-in-five (17%) approve of his performance as provincial leader. This represents a near-halving in approval since September, when 30 per cent said he was doing a good job.

Selinger, who, in August 2012 had the approval of nearly half (48%) of Manitoban adults, heads into the new year scarred by defections from cabinet and lingering discontent over last year’s increase to the provincial sales tax.

This has been a year of transformation on the provincial landscape, with four provinces changing premiers.

In Alberta, Premier Jim Prentice appears to be enjoying the goodwill that fresh tenure may sometimes provide: he has the approval of half (50%) of Alberta respondents. This is in contrast to interim premier Dave Hancock who last quarter earned the approval of 29 per cent of respondents in that province.

New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant has the approval of two-in-five (40%) respondents in his province. He replaced David Alward in an October election. Alward’s job approval in September had been 27 per cent.

A change in leadership does not always result in higher approval ratings however. Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Paul Davis replaced caucus colleague Tom Marshall in September. At the time, more than half (52%) approved of Marshall’s job performance. Today, one-third (34%) approve of Davis’ efforts.

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) analysis of quarterly online survey results of more than six thousand Canadian adults indicates less instability among longer-tenured premiers when it comes to assessment of their job performance.

Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall continues to be the most popular premier in Canada with the approval of two-thirds (65%) in his province. This is statistically unchanged from September (68%) and June (67%).

In Nova Scotia, Premier Stephen McNeil’s approval rating continues to slip. It now stands at just under half (48%) down five points since September (53%) and fully 18 points since June (66%). Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard’s job performance approval is also sliding. Today, two-in-five respondents in his province (41%) endorse the job he is doing. This compares to 50 per cent in September and 59 per cent in June; a decrease of 19 points since mid-year.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne ends the year with her job performance approval essentially unchanged, dropping two points to 39 per cent since last quarter (41%). It is a similar scenario for British Columbia Premier Christy Clark. One-third (34%) of respondents in that province approve of the job she’s doing, an increase of two points since September (32%).

Note: There are no trendline graphs for premiers who are relatively new to office.

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