Last week I asked you about your pitching plan in the first issue of my 2nd annual”Pick Your Spots” series. You have a pitching plan now, right? You know how often you’ll have to grab a starter off the wire, and you have a plan for covering injuries, which all of us have, maybe even already, right? We are now one week into the season and while that is still early when it comes to rostering, or more importantly un-rostering players, it is never too early to find opportune spot starts.



Last season I began a weekly column “Pick Your Spots” (First 6 2016 articles here) where I outlined 5-7 SP per week (with less than 50% ownership) that I thought were your best bets for a quality start (QS) or better for the coming week. It went well, and my research improved over the course of the season. I ended up with a QS or better about 67% of the time, which I was happy with considering the pool I was choosing from. It went well enough that I was asked to do it again this season and I’m all in. I’ll add a twist or two this season as well.

What to expect in 2017: (If you read this part last week skip down to week 2.)

Criterion Used: Platoon splits, LH/RH, Day/Night, Month, Half, stadium splits, team against splits, metrics like GB/FB rate, K & BB rates, Babip, Trends, etc. Sources are Fan Graphs, Baseball Reference, Fantrax, ESPN and more.

Pitchers from the under 50% ownership group – I’ll list three or four pitchers, less than 50% owned who I believe are primed for a good start the following week, or better yet two good starts. I will make my decisions based on matchups, splits, recent trends and my own gut, which is not a measurable stat but gets me by pretty well.

Not for the faint of heart, pitchers from the abyss- I’ll list two or so pitchers that are less than 20% owned and look like a good choice based on the above criterion.

DFS Ace to avoid – This is great for both DFS, Roto, and to some extent H2H leagues and points leagues. Just because a pitcher is on your roster does not mean you are required to put him out there in a bad match-up. I’ll bet the guy who won your league last season knew when to sit down his ace. If you are a DFS fan, I don’t have to tell you what happens when the ace you spent 20% of your budget on gets bombed in the 2nd inning.

Match-up of the Week: If I see a match up that is too good to pass up, I’ll present the starter and explain why he should be in your lineup.

Report Card: I’ll also briefly recap the prior week’s results, and write about any news of starting pitchers reported to be called up from the minors or a rehab assignment soon so you can get them before the rest of your league.

WEEK TWO – April 10 through April 16, 2017: Week one & two are two of the most volatile weeks for starting pitching of the year, along with the last two weeks of the season. That being the case, I’ll lean toward players with a history and lean toward control/command pitchers over high heat till a few weeks in. The picks will get more exciting as the season wears on, especially with the always-in-demand two start starters.

Spotters from the <50% owned crowd:

***Two Start Pitcher*** Charlie Morton, RHSP, HOU (47.9% owned Fantrax, 6.8% owned ESPN) @ SEA MON & @ OAK SUN: My colleague Steve Hamilton wrote about Charlie Morton in his article yesterday morning about “Sleepers” and I fully agree with him. Morton, 33, will not accumulate a lot of strikeouts for you as an extreme ground ball pitcher (1.3 GB/FB% career), but if you are looking for quality starts I think he will have two next week. He picked up a quality start in his first 2017 appearance, giving up only two earned runs in six innings with four K’s, five hits and two walks. He also has two favorable match-ups next week at SEA and at OAK. Seattle is hitting .172 so far in 2017 with a .502 OPS. Other than Jean Segura no one is hitting more than .208 and they have only three HR, two by the legendary Mitch Hanniger. We know this won’t continue so hit them when they are down. Oakland is hitting .228 at home so far and .234 vs right handed pitchers.

Eduardo Rodriguez, LHSP, BOS (39% owned ESPN, 67.1% Fantrax) Vs PIT, THU: Why do people forget about quality starting pitchers? I don’t care that he was not part of the initial 2017 rotation. He is in there now until David Price comes back. Right, that could be a long time. He is the typical young pitcher with great stuff but not enough control and command to harness it. He is 24 now and is in the midst of what is likely his last opportunity to prove to the Sox he belongs in their rotation. Last season, he regressed slightly in walk and HR percentages but increased his K rate to nearly 9 K / 9 IP by striking out 100 in 107 innings. I like him at home against a Pittsburgh team that is already stretched thin offensively and now needs to come up with a DH. The Pirates have hit only two HR and scored 14 runs in four games so far. In his last start, E-Rod went five innings giving up four earned runs on five hits and three walks. He did manage five K’s as well.

Jaime Garcia, LHSP, ATL (4.5% owned ESPN, 51.4% Fantrax) @ MIA, WEDS: It amazes me how far a skilled pitcher’s value goes down after one bad season. He posted a miserable 4.67 ERA in 2016 but logged a full 30 start load for only the second time in his career at the age of 29. Prior to that, he had about six injury-marred seasons with some of the best ERAs in the NL. He is healthy again, posting a 3.20 ERA in Spring Training and has a chance to be a big part of a rejuvenated Braves team in the NL East. He is a lefty so he will always get his chances and next week he goes to MIA on Wednesday where he has a 3.34 ERA in 6 lifetime starts there. His first 2017 start resulted in a loss as he gave up four ER in six IP on six hits and two walks. One troubling stat was a ZERO in the strikeout column. He also gave up a HR. In 2016 his HR rate spiked and his normally extreme GB/FB rate cratered. To me that sounds like a command issue, and he should correct that with more reps. This is a guy with a track record and one masterful start will drain the waiver wire of any trace of him. I’m all in for this week.

Brandon McCarthy, RHSP, LAD (5.4% owned ESPN, 29.2% Fantrax) @ CHC, WED 4/12: At least 70% of owners must have forgotten about McCarthy, 33. No, he may not be worthy of being one of your top six SP for the season, but when McCarthy is healthy he can deal with the best of them. He missed a lot of time to injury in 2016 but started nine games down the stretch for the Dodgers putting up a rusty 4.95 ERA but striking out 44 batters in 40 innings pitched. In his first start of the 2017 season, he nailed a quality start and a win with two runs in six IP, four hits, and a single walk. He also struck out four. Currently the Cubs are hitting .197 vs righties on the young season and killing lefties to the tune of .450. Last season they hit .252 vs righties or nearly 20 points less than vs lefties. McCarthy’s lifetime ERA vs the Cubs in Wrigley is 2.19 and they’ve hit .245 against him. I wanted to use him this past week but he is pitching in Colorado today. I’m an optimist, but I have to keep it real. Speaking of keeping it real, McCarthy is married to swimsuit model Amanda McCarthy. I guess once he retires he’ll be forced to spend more time with her.

Not for the faint of heart. Pitchers from the abyss:

Clayton Richard, SP, SD (11.2% owned ESPN, 28.8% owned Fantrax) @ ATL, SAT 4/15: Hurry up!! Richard’s ownership went up 5% since I started typing. Richard pitched one of the best games of the young season so far hurling eight innings of five hit, two walk baseball with 5 K’s, and he did not give up a run against the Dodgers in LA. Today, Sunday, he gets the SF Giants at home and next week on SAT he goes to Atlanta where he has not always pitched well. But the Braves have only hit .236 with two HR and scored 13 runs so far in five games. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher (3/4 over the past 5 seasons) so he seldom gives up HR, but has always had a struggle with the strike zone. If he nails today’s game like he did Tuesday, you will have trouble finding him for next weekend. Richard is 33 years old now but last season, after acquiring him at the deadline, Richard compiled a 2.41 ERA in nine late-season starts. Lefties often develop late, and while he is no Randy Johnson he has been getting outs and throwing strikes with five different pitches, all at different speeds. Grab him today and keep him for next week too.

Mike Fiers, RHSP, HOU (5.1% owned ESPN, 40.5% owned Fantrax) @ SEA WED 4/12: Fiers threw a QS Friday but took the loss vs KC. He only gave up one earned run in six innings pitched with three K’s, five hits and three walks. The good news is he put up a 1.38 GB/FB rate in that start. The walks are a little troubling and he tends to give up a homer or two as a fly ball pitcher (.63 lifetime GB/FB) but he’ll be pitching in a dome that does not give up a lot of HR. He’s got a lifetime 2.31 ERA at Safeco Field and as I stated in the Charlie Morton write up above the Mariners are just not hitting. Fiers career has been thrown by injuries but when he is on his career K and BB rates are both pretty usefull. 8.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.

Ariel Miranda, LHSP, SEA (1.3% owned ESPN, 23.4% owned Fantrax) Vs HOU TUE 4/11: Seattle beat the ‘Stros on the road Thursday and even though Miranda did not get the win he pitched well. He went five IP, giving up two ER, five H, and three BB with four K’s. This week he’ll be at home in Seattle facing those same Astros. The Stros hit a good number of HR and Miranda is a fly ball pitcher but Safeco Field mitigates that enough that I am not worried. Plus he’ll be facing a Houston lineup that is hitting .222 with a .625 OPS so far this season against lefties.

You may want to rethink starting him:

Masahiro Tanaka, RHSP, NYY Vs TBR, FRI April 14, 2017 PM ET: Tanaka is my Boy, but something is just not looking right. He has given up 14 hits in 7.2 IP along with 6 walks and 2 HR in his first two games. He had a great Spring so hopefully it is a speed bump. If you own him, start him, but i would not use him in DFS until he finds the plate.

Match-up of the week:

Steven Strasburg, RHSP, WAS Vs PHI FRI April 14, 2017: THIS IS THE YEAR! This is the year Stras finally puts it all together and wins a CY. Yup, you heard it here. At the very least he gets the Phils next week. In his first 2017 start he pitched seven innings for a win against Miami, giving up six H, two ER, no walks and struck out three. You can bank on 8-10 K’s next week as the Phils are striking out nearly 30% of their plate appearances so far.

I was proud of my pick for must start last week, Madison Bumgarner of the Giants. It was ironic the picture of him I posted (below) shows him hitting a HR in 2016. Last week he became the 4th Giant to hit two HR on opening day, following the likes of Willie Mays, Barry Bonds and Matt Williams.

Thanks for reading and good luck in week two, especially with your pitching. If you have a question about these or any other SP match-ups next week don’t hesitate to leave a message in the comments, write me or check out my “Pick Your Spots” thread every Sunday on the /r/fantasybaseball Sub-Reddit where I’ll talk starting pitching all day Sunday.

joseph.iannone021@gmail.com @JoeIannone2 Twitter

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(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio: Join Corey D Roberts, and Kyle Amore live on Sunday April 9th, 2017 from 7-9pm EST for episode #82 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will be previewing the coming week’s key matchups and discussing key fantasy information.

Our guests this week are Craig Mish, and Professor Mark Rush. Mark is the Chief Editor for MLFS, a writer, and occasional guest on our shows. Craig Mish is the host of a fantasy baseball show on Sirius Satelitte Radio along with Jim Bowden from 9-11am EST Monday through Friday. Craig is also the host for a show on Sirius every Sunday morning with FSWA Hall of Famer Lenny Melnick from 7-10am EST.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

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