This is the same drill as the Towns' Comparison Book, but with Point Guards instead of Power Forwards and Centers. And I included a larger swath of players as well, basically everyone from the last several drafts that got large enough run in the NBA to make inferences about how good they were plus many of this year's best college point guards, including seven or eight who will only be eligible for next year's draft, like Monte Morris, Demetrius Jackson or Wade Baldwin.



The reason why I included so many players is that there were a couple counterintuitive findings, and some that needed to be reinforced by more data points. The players included are John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Eric Bledsoe, Damian Lillard, Brandon Knight, Isaiah Thomas, Reggie Jackson, Michael Carter-Williams, Tony Wroten, Isaiah Canaan, Nate Wolters, Shane Larkin, Ray MacCallum, Tyshawn Taylor, Nolan Smith, Norris Cole, CJ McCollum, Marcus Smart, Elfriid Payton, Jordan Clarkson, Darius Morris, E'Twuan Moore, Zach LaVine, Kendall MArshall, Shelvin Mack, Austin Rivers, Trey Burke, Cory Joseph, Lorenzo Brown, Charles Jenkins, Josh Selby, Marquis Teague, D'angelo Russell, Delon Wright, Cameron Payne, TJ McConnell, Tyus Jones, Jerian Grant, Olivier Hanlan, Joseph Young, Tery Rozier, Briante Webber, Derrick Marks, Corey Hawkins, Demetrius Jackson, Monte Morris, Malcolm Brogdon, and Kris Dunn.



First, it should be stated that the first thing one notices with Point Guards is that age (here represented in terms of college class) is very important for these players, perhaps more so than Big Men. Though it should also be stated that this perhaps because most players now leave school as soon possible, with the exception of this year, where a great many players decided to stay. So despite the fact that there have only been six or seven upperclassmen success stories in recent years: Damian Lillard, Elfriid Payton, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Thomas, Norris Cole, Jordan Clarkson, CJ McCollum being the notable ones, we should perhaps not use the marker as an End-All-Be-All for this class and the next. As you'll see, by many measures, these are by far the best two classes of upperclassmen point guards we've seen in perhaps a decade or more. Who knows why it is?



But even still, after we note where a player stands vs. the entire spectrum of point guards, we should also take care to note a player vs. his own class. Freshman vs. Freshman. Sophomores vs. Sophomores. And Upperclassmen vs. Upperclassmen. Perhaps more so than any other position, prospects find the transition from high school to the college level to be a great difficulty. And there are very few freshman Point Guards who are even moderately successful. This is important to note because freshman success, or success at a young age, is perhaps the best indicator of success in the NBA, at least at this position. And that holds for the most part no matter how much skill growth a player has in college. (Nolan Smith's junior and senior year have both been presented in an effort to show this, that minimal late career skill growth for these players is perhaps not indicative of anything. Though this might not be the case for huge leaps, and that will also be pointed out.)



Second, I've used the best season I could find by all the prospects, not the latest season.



Third, because age is so important I've done the same trick where I adjusted some of the player's class designations to co-allign more with their age relative to the other prospects. They are changed as follows:

Players who were very young for their class: Elfriid Payton, it's actually his junior season listed, but he was very young so I've labeled it as a sophomore season. Damian Lillard. His senior season, but I've labeled it as a junior season. Ditto for Derrick Marks. Exceptionally young for the level. Monte Morris, his sophomore season, but I've labeled it as freshman. I think he might be a year younger than Melo Trimble for example, and the same age as players like Cory Joseph or Tyler Ennis, who are on the borderline to be featured on the next list.



Players who are very old for their class: Michael Carter-Williams. His sophomore year, but I've labeled it as junior season. Jordan Clarkson. His junior year, but he's a transfer, so it would have technically been his senior year. Kris Dunn, who got a medical redshirt, is listed as a junior.



And now on to the main event:

Shooting Numbers



True Shooting Percentage



1. Kyrie Irving: 69.7

2. Corey Hawkins (senior): 65.3

3. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 64.2

4. Damian Lillard (junior): 63.5

5. Charles Jenkins (senior): 63.5

6. Joseph Young (junior): 62.7

7. Delon Wright (senior): 61.9

8. Reggie Jackson (junior): 61.8

9. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 61.6

10. Nate Wolters (senior): 60.4

11. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 60.0

12. Derrick Marks (junior): 59.3

13. Jerian Grant (senior): 59.2

14. Wade Baldwin: 58.8

15. Monte Morris: 58.6

16. Ray Maccullum (junior): 57.8

17. Tyus Jones: 57.5

18. D'Angelo Russell: 57.3

19. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 57.3

20. TJ McConnell (senior): 57.0

21. Trey Burke (sophomore): 56.9

21. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 56.9

23. Eric Bledsoe: 56.6

24. Nolan Smith (senior): 56.4

25. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 56.3

26. John Wall: 56.2

27. Norris Cole (senior): 55.8

28. CJ McCollum (junior): 55.6

29. Brandon Knight: 55.3

29. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 55.3

31. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 55.2

32. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 55.1

33. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 54.7

34. Gary Payton II (junior): 54.7

35. Kris Dunn (junior): 54.6

36. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 54.5

36. Darius Morris (sophomore): 54.5

36. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 54.5

36. Zach Lavine: 54.5

40. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 54.1

41. Austin Rivers: 53.8

42. Shelvin Mack (senior): 53.7

43. Nolan Smith (junior): 53.5

44. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 53.3

45. Cory Joseph: 52.6

46. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 50.9

47. Briante Webber (senior): 49.8

48. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 49.1

48. Marquis Teague: 49.1

50. Josh Selby: 48.9

51. Tony Wroten: 48.8



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. This is your first major flag. Most players in the lower echelons of this list, below 55% let's say, have failed to become efficient offensive players, with the notable exceptions of Jordan Clarkson this year and Cory Joseph. Joseph had youth on his side, and if you notice, no underclassman besides Kyrie Irving (Jesus!) scored particularly well. Clarkson on the other hand, could really get to the basket, shooting a huge number of unassisted shots at the rim. That is the huge caveat to shooting percentage. If a player can get to the rim in college, they have a good chance to be a productive player in the pros.



2. It's not only true of Clarkson, it was true before of Isaiah Thomas as well, and is clearly true with a number of the successful underclassmen in college in Wall, Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. Though it did not save Marquis Teague. Despite over 70 unassisted shots, having a scoring skill that tracks at or below 50% true shooting in college might be too much to overcome. Not a single one of these players has yet become successful at scoring, no matter how young they were or what athleticism advantages they possess.



3. In fact, for upperclassmen at least, scoring below even 57%, 58%, 59% True Shooting without a top notch drive skill should be seen as a huge flag. Perhaps the only player on the list who does neither and has become worthy of a second contract are Cory Joseph, who put up the numbers when he was a Freshman.



4. CJ McCollum was quite good at driving in college, put up excellent percentages throughout his career, and had huge late career growth in shooting, posting a 62.8% True Shooting Percentage his senior year. Corey Hawkins, who posted a 65.3% shooting percentage this year, should perhaps be seen as a poor man's CJ McCollum. Hawkins, the son of all-time Sixers' favorite, also has very attractive unassisted shooting splits. 57.5% at the rim on only 8.7% assisted, 47.7% on two point jumpers on only 8.2% assisted, 48.8% from three on only 54.2% assisted while shooting 82.2% from the free throw line. Does not get much better than that. The only flag is that he didn't get to the rim that often, probably because Hawkins is only an average athlete.



5. To speak further about this draft, Olivier Hanlan, Derrick Marks and Jerian Grant are both in the danger zone in terms of their True Shooting Percentages as Upperclassmen but all exhibited good, as in the case of Marks and Grant, or excellent ability to get to the rim, as in the case of Hanlan. Grant also posted a 65.5% True Shooting Percentage as a junior when he was played off the ball while still having comparable assist percentages. (ie. Hopefully whoever drafts Grant does so as a wing and not a point guard.)



6. In next year's draft, Kris Dunn, Malcolm Brogdon, and Gary Payton II are all in the danger zone. But all are also good to excellent at getting to the rim, and Malcolm Brogdon in particular possesses a skill set and a shot that suggests he's a good bet to improve his shooting in the pro game.



7. The scoring efficiency of D'Angelo Russell, Wade Baldwin, and the slightly older, Monte Morris, at such a young age should be noted. Posting a 57% or 58% True Shooting Percentage on relatively high usage while spending time at Point Guard at age 18-19 just doesn't happen very frequently. You are basically talking about Kyrie Irving (who is basically off the chart), Damian Lillard, Eric Bledsoe, Demetrius Jackson in addition to Russell, Baldwin and Morris. John Wall gets added if you go down to 56%. It's elite company. (If we go back further, Chris Paul put up a 65% true shooting number, Derrick Rose put up 56% and Russell Westbrook put up 51%, in what is perhaps the single best indicator for a poor efficiency scorer who figured it out. Except one thing, Westbrook's scoring efficiency, aside from his ability to get to the rim and draw free throws, is still somewhat questionable.)



8. This is the first stop on the Delon Wright "I'm Not Like Any Other Senior Point Guard Prospect Tour." Wright places 7th on the list at 61.9%, but would place 4th at 63.8% if you considered his junior year. And it should be noted that the only three players to score 60% or above in True Shooting to fail to find a home for some facet of their NBA game in the pros are Charles Jenkins, Nate Wolters and Shane Larkin, who are all fringy athletes for the position. Jenkins and Wolters in particular. With Larkin, it's more his size than his speed, as sub six foot point guards with short wingspans often struggle in the league. Each player will be flagged more than once by failing to do well in a statistic below. This does not necessarily bode well for Corey Hawkins. However, Delon Wright has no such disadvantage, getting to the rim more than any other player in his class, even if he does not possess elite burst.



9. Scoring and Rebounding are basically the only skills that Damian Lillard does well at. However, as stated before, Lillard has perhaps the most exciting scoring profile of any player in the draft the last 5-6 years. That to go along with his size and athleticism seems to have been enough to more than override any of the flags one finds below. But the places Lillard is flagged, namely defense, continue to be issues that plague his game and prevent him from being a truly elite point guard.



10. I will go into this more below, but athletic advantage is incredibly important at the point guard position. And though it's possible a player can be bad enough at shooting that we should not predict success in the league, as with MCW, Teague or Wroten, a great many of the players to put up mediocre scoring numbers in college and become excellent players in the pros (Wall, Bledsoe, Knight, Thomas) are indeed excellent athletes.



11. Here are the pairings of layers I'd like you to pay attention to:



A) Zach LaVine and Austin Rivers. If you'll note they start out quite closely.

B) Kris Dunn and MCW. If you'll note Dunn is basically better at everything at a similar age. But the level of Dunn's concerns and their similarity to the concerns of MCW might be enough to doom him.

C) Wade Baldwin with the Kentucky freshman point guards: Wall, Bledsoe, and Knight. Not as athletic as Wall, but still an excellent athlete at the position. Plus he's 6'3" with a 6'10" wingspan.

D) Hawkins with McCollum.

E) Cameron Payne and Reggie Jackson. They have very different athleticism levels, but I think functionally, with the way they bring value on the court, they could end up being very similar players. Something like a player as valuable as Reggie Jackson except with better passing ability and a better jumper being Payne's upside. Though if we're looking for a worst case scenario for Cameron Payne, Trey Burke the last two years is a good one.

F) Jerian Grant and Charles Jenkins.

G) Tyus Jones, Monte Morris and Cory Joseph.

H) Russell and Wright with no one. There are really no close comparisons for either player. Though Irving and Russell have some close data points.



Free Throw Rate



1. Kyrie Irving: 68.3

2. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 64.8

3. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 64.1

4. Tony Wroten: 59.1

5. Delon Wright (senior): 56.5

6. John Wall: 53.0

7. Damian Lillard (junior): 51.9

8. Jerian Grant (senior): 51.1

9. Tyus Jones: .500

10. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 49.8

11. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 47.2

12. Ray Maccullum (junior): 47.0

13. Wade Baldwin: 46.7

14. Norris Cole (senior): 46.5

15. Nate Wolters (senior): 46.1

16. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 46.0

17. Charles Jenkins (senior): 45.9

18. Austin Rivers: 45.8

19. Corey Hawkins (senior): 44.4

20. Kris Dunn (junior): 44.1

21. CJ McCollum (junior): 42.6

22. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 42.2

23. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 42.0

24. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 41.8

25. Joseph Young (junior): 41.0

26. Nolan Smith (senior): 40.5

27. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 40.1

28. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 39.7

29. Eric Bledsoe: 39.5

30. Darius Morris (sophomore): 36.7

31. Terry Rozier (sophomore):33.8

31. Marquis Teague: 33.8

33. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 33.4

34. Brandon Knight: 33.3

35. Shelvin Mack (senior): 31.6

36. Reggie Jackson (junior): 31.5

36. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 31.5

38. D'Angelo Russell: 30.3

39. Trey Burke (sophomore): 29.6

40. Briante Webber (senior): 29.4

41. Nolan Smith (junior): 29.3

41. Gary Payton II (junior): 29.3

41. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 29.3

44. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 29.2

45. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 28.5

46. Monte Morris: 27.8

47. Zach Lavine: 26.6

48. Derrick Marks (junior): 25.2

49. Cory Joseph: 22.7

50. TJ McConnell (senior): 22.7

51. Josh Selby: 19.2



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. There is definitely a correlation between Free Throw Rate and how often a player shoots from three. So in noting that, we should be especially impressed with how often both Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard got to the line. (Chris Paul put up equally impressive rates in college of 65% and 59%, as he shot more three pointers.)



2. However, we should also note that nearly half of D'Angelo Russell's attempts came from three. And that his, or even Cameron Payne's, are actually not all that poor for players who shoot so many three pointers. (Russell Westbrook, who didn't shoot many three pointers, was actually comparable in college, putting up rates of 29.5% and 38.5% in his two years.)



3. They are still not where Wade Baldwin is, who is at nearly 50% despite shooting 42% of his shots from three. Baldwin is an explosive athlete. The fact that he falls in between Wall and Bledsoe is indicative of his plus-plus athletic ability. Though Bledsoe, who is amazing, might still be more athletic.



4. 50% or over is an excellent number for a point guard. And almost all of these players, Irving, Wall, Wroten, Payton, Smart, even Isaiah Thomas, are at least in some way athletically gifted for the position. So perhaps we shouldn't worry too much about Delon Wright athletically. He knows how to use his body, to play angles, to change speeds, so even if he would not grade as having an elite first step on offense, functionally he plays at a level equivalent to a player with much greater burst.



5. Perhaps this is also the single greatest athletic number in favor of Tyus Jones. 50% is a huge number for a player who couldn't get to the rim. What I'd be interested to know is if Jones very low usage rate (18.7%) had anything to do with the high number. That is, Jones, because of his decision making and free throw shooting prowess was one of the two Duke players most often asked to salt away games. How many free throws did Jones shoot merely because he had the ball at the end of games when Duke had a lead and the other team was trying to extend the game?



6. I believe Jerian Grant and Delon Wright might both be beneficiaries of the same phenomenon to differing degrees. Though their percentages are much more in keeping with players who got to the rim in college. However, another question about Grant is how much of his free throw rate is tied to playing athletes that were not elite. As he notably struggled vs. elite defensive players such as Malcolm Brogdon or Terry Rozier or JP Tokoto in their first match-up.



7. That TJ McConnell scores so lowly here, 22.7% is his major red flag, as he was definitely this player for Arizona. It goes along with his very average ability to get to the rim, but McConnell scores very well almost everywhere else.



8. Regardless, drawing free throws is a skill that often improves as a player gets older. So unless, a player shot a lot more three pointers as a senior it should definitely be noted. On the other hand, Derrick Marks who scores very low here, at only 25.2%, did so perhaps because he shot a lot more three pointers this year. He scored between 44% and 60% his first three years. He's the rare player whose true shooting percentage goes up as his free throw rate goes down.

Rebounding Numbers



Offensive Rebound Percentage



1. Tony Wroten: 8.0

2. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 7.1

3. Gary Payton II (junior): 7.0

4. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 5.1

4. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 5.1

6. CJ McCollum (junior): 5.0

7. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 4.6

8. Nolan Smith (senior): 4.1

9. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 4.0

9. Delon Wright (senior): 4.0

9. Ray Maccullum (junior): 4.0

12. Reggie Jackson (junior): 3.9

13. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 3.8

14. Nate Wolters (senior): 3.7

15. D'Angelo Russell: 3.6

15. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 3.6

17. Darius Morris (sophomore): 3.2

18. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 3.1

18. Joseph Young (junior): 3.1

20. Nolan Smith (junior): 2.9

20. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 2.9

20. Corey Hawkins (senior): 2.9

20. Kris Dunn (junior): 2.9

24. TJ McConnell (senior): 2.8

24. Briante Webber (senior): 2.8

26. John Wall: 2.7

27. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 2.6

27. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 2.6

29. Norris Cole (senior): 2.5

29. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 2.5

31. Monte Morris: 2.5

32. Shelvin Mack (senior): 2.4

32. Josh Selby: 2.4

32. Zach Lavine: 2.4

35. Wade Baldwin: 2.3

35. Kyrie Irving: 2.3

37. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 2.2

37. Brandon Knight: 2.2

37. Cory Joseph: 2.2

37. Austin Rivers: 2.2

41. Derrick Marks (junior): 2.1

42. Eric Bledsoe: 1.9

42. Damian Lillard (junior): 1.9

42. Trey Burke (sophomore): 1.9

45. Tyus Jones: 1.8

45. Charles Jenkins (senior): 1.8

47. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 1.6

47. Marquis Teague: 1.6

49. Jerian Grant (senior): 1.3

50. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 0.7

51. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 0.5



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. Being at the bottom of this last is to some extent a flag. Especially if you are a player with height like Kendall Marshall or Jerian Grant. And Jerian Grant has similarly poor rebounding splits throughout his entire career.



2. It should also be noted to Tyus Jones, as he's much more similar athletically to Trey Burke or Shane Larkin than Damian Lillard or Eric Bledsoe, the only two players to score so poorly here and be hugely successful in the league. The closeness to Cory Joseph's score is perhaps instructive. And I would not be surprised if Cory Joseph, who has become almost as good as he could become with his athleticism and skill set, is the ceiling we might expect for Tyus Jones, with perhaps slightly better three point shooting. And a player like DJ Augustin, who is just good enough to get you beat in the playoffs, the floor.



3. Another top ten score for Wright. He'd score 7th if you used his junior year score of 4.6%. In recent drafts, there has not be an upperclassmen point guard prospect to score so well so frequently. Though Kris Dunn and Gary Payton II, with growth, might have a chance to challenge him next year.



4. Gary Payton II is an insanely good rebounder, and definitely an NBA level athlete. We will continue to see this as we make our way down.



5. Here's the first major flag for Charles Jenkins. 6'3" senior who can't rebound and has questionable athleticism and defense, but excellent offense in college. Yet struggled mightily to do anything offensively in the pros. As in true shooting percentage, he's slightly ahead of Grant again, but Jenkins also played, on the whole, against slightly worse competition.



6. This is the first sign that we might be underrating D'Angelo Russell's athleticism. It's might not seem a huge score, 3.6%, but Russell shot a lot of three pointers which makes it harder to grab offensive rebounds. It should be noted that Russell consistently scores in the top 10-15 in most, if not all, of the athleticism and defense categories. And way higher than most freshman. (That's the case here, with only Wroten's ridiculous 8% besting him.) He might not be John Wall or Tony Wroten, but a 6'5" player with his movement skills (to go along with Russell's anticipation, awareness and understanding of the game) is probably still significantly better than the "Average" label with which he's been tagged. Even by me, earlier in the season.



7. Upperclassmen definitely fair better here. So that's perhaps one reason we shouldn't put too much stock in the raw numbers, without respect to age. Another is that offensive rebounding doesn't seem to be a necessary skill for point guards at the NBA level. But if you look at rebounding on the whole, the best NBA point guards do tend to rebound in college and often at a young age, be it Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, so with that in mind, we should perhaps pay special attention to the defensive and overall rebounding numbers, especially for players who were poor at offensive rebounding. There are a few elite players, like John Wall, who didn't rebound in college, but it's also possible his team, which featured DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson, Josh Harrelson and Terrence Jones, might have had something to do with that.





Defensive Rebounding Percentage



1. Gary Payton II (junior): 18.4

2. CJ McCollum (junior): 17.6

3. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 17.3

4. Norris Cole (senior): 16.5

5. Kris Dunn (junior): 16.1

6. D'Angelo Russell: 15.4

7. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 14.9

8. Damian Lillard (junior): 14.8

8. Corey Hawkins (senior): 14.8

10. Shelvin Mack (senior): 14.4

10. Wade Baldwin: 14.4

12. Nate Wolters (senior): 14.3

13. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 13.9

14. Delon Wright (senior): 13.7

14. Briante Webber (senior): 13.7

16. Ray Maccullum (junior): 13.1

17. Derrick Marks (junior): 12.9

18. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 12.5

18. TJ McConnell (senior): 12.5

20. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 12.2

21. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 11.7

22. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 11.5

23. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 11.4

24. Reggie Jackson (junior): 11.3

25. Kyrie Irving: 10.6

26. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 10.6

27. Darius Morris (sophomore): 10.4

27. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 10.4

29. Brandon Knight: 10.2

30. John Wall: 10.1

30. Nolan Smith (senior): 10.1

32. Tyus Jones: 9.9

33. Tony Wroten: 9.8

34. Josh Selby: 9.7

35. Cory Joseph: 9.5

35. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 9.5

35. Zach Lavine: 9.5

38. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 9.3

39. Austin Rivers: 9.2

39. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 9.2

41. Eric Bledsoe: 8.8

41. Charles Jenkins (senior): 8.8

43. Trey Burke (sophomore): 8.7

44. Monte Morris: 8.6

45. Jerian Grant (senior): 8.3

46. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 8.1

47. Joseph Young (junior): 7.8

48. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 7.3

49. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 6.9

50. Marquis Teague: 6.6

51. Nolan Smith (junior): 5.8



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. Delon Wright again places in the top 15, though if I used his junior year, he would be in the top five with 17%. Underestimate him at your own peril. There's not a single category in which he doesn't score well to exceptionally. He's the only player in the whole data set that you can say this about.



2. Russell is by far the highest scoring freshman at 15.4%, followed by Wade Baldwin at 14.4%. These numbers are vastly higher than Kyrie Irving, Brandon Knight, John Wall, Tony Wroten, Tyus Jones and Corey Joseph who all sit in the 10% range. Once again, we may be underestimating D'Angelo Russell's functional basketball athleticism. I really hope he does a lot of drills to improve his right hand, because if he does we might be seeing something special. The dominance of Russell's left hand is the main red flag that keeps definitively behind Towns as a prospect. And if a team was confident Russell could learn how to use his right comfortably in both dribbling and finishing situations, there might be some argument for him at #1. I would not be surprised if Russell's difficulties vs. top 100 competition were in large part due to his lack of a right hand.



3. That Eric Bledsoe does so poorly is a big surprise. Since he is obviously an elite athlete. Some of this could be because he was a freshman and some because of the ridiculous amount of talent on his Kentucky team. Arguably that Kentucky team was vastly more talented than this one, featuring three future upper echelon players in Cousins, Wall and Bledsoe, two starting caliber big men in Jones and Patterson and rotation big who had some minimal success in the league in Josh Harrelson.



4. This is the big flag for Monte Morris in his statistical profile, and it fits that there should be some athletic flag as he is neither strong right now, or an exceptional vertical leaper. He neither rebounds well offensively or defensively.



5. There's not a single upperclassmen who scored below 9.0% who did anything in the league. This should be a big flag for Jerian Grant and Joseph Young. Even the upperclassmen who scored less than 11%, in Isaiah Thomas, Jordan Clarkson, And Isaiah Canaan, have had a questionable defensive impact in the NBA. And on the whole, players who score below 10.5% are much more likely to bust than not, especially if they aren't freshman. So we should note that Cameron Payne is on the borderline. Though it's not necessarily indicative of anything.



6. It's a positive datapoint for Corey Hawkins, suggesting that he might have some role player potential. Though Hawkins age must be noted. Regardless, it's much better to be near the top of this list than the bottom.







Total Rebounding Percentage



1. Gary Payton II (junior): 12.7

2. CJ McCollum (junior): 11.3

3. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 10.7

4. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 10.2

5. D'Angelo Russell: 9.8

6. Norris Cole (senior): 9.5

6. Corey Hawkins (senior): 9.5

6. Kris Dunn (junior): 9.5

9. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 9.4

10. Delon Wright (senior): 9.3

11. Nate Wolters (senior): 9.1

12. Tony Wroten: 8.9

12. Wade Baldwin: 8.9

14. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 8.8

14. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 8.8

16. Damian Lillard (junior): 8.7

17. Shelvin Mack (senior): 8.4

18. Ray Maccullum (junior): 8.3

19. Reggie Jackson (junior): 7.8

19. TJ McConnell (senior): 7.8

19. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 7.8

19. Briante Webber (senior): 7.8

23. Derrick Marks (junior): 7.6

24. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 7.5

25. Nolan Smith (senior): 7.2

26. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 7.1

27. Darius Morris (sophomore): 6.9

28. Kyrie Irving: 6.7

29. John Wall: 6.6

29. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 6.6

31. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 6.5

32. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 6.4

33. Brandon Knight: 6.3

33. Josh Selby: 6.3

33. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 6.3

36. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 6.2

37. Zach Lavine: 6.1

37. Tyus Jones: 6.1

39. Cory Joseph: 6.0

39. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 6.0

41. Austin Rivers: 5.8

42. Monte Morris: 5.7

43. Eric Bledsoe: 5.5

43. Joseph Young (junior): 5.5

45. Trey Burke (sophomore): 5.4

46. Charles Jenkins (senior): 5.3

47. Jerian Grant (senior): 5.1

48. Nolan Smith (junior): 4.4

48. Marquis Teague: 4.4

50. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 4.0

51. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 4.0



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. Delon Wright again in the top 10. His junior year number of 11.2% would have been tied with McCollum for the 2nd highest in the group.



2. Again we see that older players with poor rebounding scores are fringy NBA players at best, generally because of athleticism. Though the presence of Marquis Teague and to a lesser extent Tyshawn Taylor point to the fact that a low rebounding score might also be tagging an awareness/Basketball IQ deficit, as basketball intelligence clearly has a lot to do with why both players failed. Just to reiterate the point about Jerian Grant and Joseph Young.



3. I don't believe Tyus Jones and Cory Joseph scoring so closely is a coincidence. They have very like levels of athelticism and succeed on the court because of their basketball intelligence and know-how.



4. There are strong correlations at the top of the list to either height, athleticism or both as Norris Cole and Terry Rozier are the only two players below 6'3" in the top 15, both excellent athletes. Cole is also a good point of reference for Rozier. As Rozier will have to get a ton of miles out of his defensive game to be successful in the league.



5. Once again, freshman just don't rebound as well as D'Angelo Russell. Close to 10% from a guy who primarily played point guard for much of the season. Baldwin and Wroten at around 9%, and then no one until Irving and John Wall in that 6.6-6.7 range. That is, you have to go farther back than possible in the publicly available data to find a point guard who rebounded like Russell at so young an age. Derrick Rose, Anfernee Hardaway, those types of guys.



6. If you haven't noticed, there are some exceptional Junior and Senior athletes at the point guard position the next two years. Delon Wright, Gary Payton II, Malcolm Brogdon, Kris Dunn. There really are no comparable points from past drafts for any of them in terms of what they bring to the table. And even TJ McConnell, who's faired only average slightly above average so far is going to have some numbers that really stand out below, pointing to the fact that he's probably severely underrated as a player.

Passing Numbers



Assist Percentage



1. Kris Dunn (junior): 50.0

2. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 45.1

3. Darius Morris (sophomore): 44.2

4. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 40.1

5. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 40.0

6. TJ McConnell (senior): 39.0

7. Trey Burke (sophomore): 37.3

8. Norris Cole (senior): 37.0

9. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 35.0

10. John Wall: 34.8

11. Nate Wolters (senior): 34.3

12. Jerian Grant (senior): 33.6

13. Delon Wright (senior): 33.0

14. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 32.9

15. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 32.7

16. Briante Webber (senior): 31.9

17. Charles Jenkins (senior): 31.5

18. Wade Baldwin: 31.2

19. Nolan Smith (senior): 30.3

20. D'Angelo Russell: 30.1

20. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 30.1

22. Kyrie Irving: 29.8

23. Reggie Jackson (junior): 29.7

23. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 29.7

25. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 29.1

26. Tyus Jones: 27.5

26. Monte Morris: 27.4

28. Damian Lillard (junior): 27.1

29. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 26.1

29. Derrick Marks (junior): 26.1

31. Marquis Teague: 25.6

32. CJ McCollum (junior): 25.4

33. Corey Hawkins (senior): 25.2

34. Shelvin Mack (senior): 24.9

35. Tony Wroten: 24.5

36. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 24.4

37. Ray Maccullum (junior): 23.8

38. Brandon Knight: 23.4

39. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 23.3

39. Gary Payton II (junior): 22.3

41. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 20.9

42. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 19.7

43. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 19.4

44. Josh Selby: 17.8

45. Nolan Smith (junior): 17.7

46. Cory Joseph: 17.3

47. Eric Bledsoe: 16.8

48. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 15.9

49. Joseph Young (junior): 13.1

50. Austin Rivers: 13.0

51. Zach Lavine: 12.6





What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. This is one of the most surprising lists to me. Specifically, that there's very little correlation between an excellent assist percentage in college and overall success at the position in the pros. As we've seen Marshall, Michael Carter-Williams and Darius Morris all mostly fail in the NBA. The latter two haven't even been outstanding passers, though Michael Carter-Williams can make all the passes when he wants to do so. Further down the list, despite grading highly, Burke, Cole, Wolters and Brown have all had their struggles in creating shots for their teammates at the pro level, despite having highly advanced passing games in college.



2. The reason for this is firstly because athleticism is so important for the position in the pro game. Damian Lillard was a relatively mediocre passer in college. 27.1% as a senior is pretty pedestrian number, especially considering how often he had the ball in his hands, which was almost always as evidenced by his 33% usage rate that year. But Lillard's elite athleticism to go along with his elite shooting ability have allowed him actually to slightly improve in the pro game, and he now sports a 28% assist percentage. So paying attention to a player's athleticism at this position is perhaps more important than looking at their assist percentages. Eric Bledsoe scores terribly at 16.8%, but he has become a very good passer in the NBA, sporting assist percentages of 27% and 28% the last two years. Because it is Bledsoe's athletic advantage that creates his passing opportunities.



3. You can see the reverse effect in a player like Isaiah Canaan. Canaan can't win on screens anymore, so his assist percentage has dropped from about 25% to a 17.5% for his career.



4. To overcome a lack of athletic advantage at the point guard position, a player needs a combination of skills and/or physical traits. Players like Chris Paul, Steph Curry, Steve Nash and Andre Miller have been able to have great success in the league despite not possessing the jump out of the gym athleticism of a player like John Wall. They have been able to make up for it by having excellent handles, great point guard craft, understanding of angles, the ability to change speeds, advanced intelligence for the position, toughness and tenacity and the ability to make shots. In the case of Andre Miller, he leveraged his size to get makable shots within the three point line. In the case of Paul, Curry and Nash, all three players have remarkable ability to create and make shots not only within the three point line but from distance.



5. In terms of this draft, this set of criteria bodes well for D'Angelo Russell. Russell not only possesses better athleticism than given credit for, but just about every positive quality you could hope for in terms of a player overcoming an athleticism deficit at the position, save perhaps that his handle could serve to improve. Though Russell's dribbling is by no means as big a liability as it is for a player like Michael-Carter Williams. What Russell does have in spades is advanced intelligence for the position, a point guard craft and floor sense well beyond his years, some sense that he can play at different speeds and the ability to make shots at different levels of the offense off the dribble.



6. This criteria also bodes well for Delon Wright, does not yet have the jump shot, but his shooting profile, that is, as a player who made a lot of unassisted shots from all ranges suggests he might be able to add a jump shot in the next few years. Wright has an excellent handle and is great at changing speeds and using angles to set his defender up on screens, a skill that many point guards never develop. He also then has his height which allows him to see the court clearly and make passes that many shorter players could not. And he's good to great at everything else. Among the best defensive prospects at the position, if not the best. Among the best rebounding prospects at the position, if not the best. Among the most intelligent prospects at the position, if not the most intelligent. The superlatives go on. Even without consistent shot mechanics on his jumper (though they are improving), he profiles as a player who could bring positive value to the table, ala The Professor, Andre Miller, but perhaps with better defensive ability.



7. Also in this year's class, it bodes well for Cameron Payne, who's ability to shoot off the dribble gives him a dimension that Wright does not yet have. The fact that Payne is at least an order of magnitude better than fellow Murray St. alum Isaiah Canaan in terms of both athleticism and passing ability also give him avenues to being an impact player than Canaan just doesn't have.



8. Lastly, the criteria bodes well for Olivier Hanlan, who even sports a decent assist percentage at 29.1% to go along with his ability to get to the rim and shoot three pointers off the dribble. (35.3% from three this year. 36% for his career, to go along with a 78% free throw percentage.) Maybe not quite the penetrator that Clarkson was, but the rest of the profile is more attractive.



9. Even if assist percentages on the whole aren't necessarily indicative of future success, we should again note D'Angelo Russell and Wade Baldwin. At 30.1% and 31.2% respectively, there are only two comparable points from Freshman. Kyrie Irving's 29.8% and John Wall's 34.8%. Tyus Jones and Monte Morris also score very well for players that are so young, both around 27.5%, which makes sense, since both have preternatural instincts for the position.



10. Even if assist percentages on the whole aren't necessarily indicative of future success, Kris Dunn has amazing vision, as his 50% number is perhaps the highest in the database. If not, it is right up there. And we should note here, that though Michael Carter-Williams and Kendall Marshall haven't been good players in the league, they have posted high assist percentages. So we should expect this to continue with Dunn as well. And I'd like to note, this is yet another category that Delon Wright scores within the top 15 of this data set.



11. The full meaning of these numbers perhaps will only come into place when we consider them in context with Turnover Percentage and Usage Percentage, the latter of which is surprisingly very important for a point guard as it is great indicator if a player is a pass-first player or a scoring point. But it is surprising how little assist percentage reveals in terms of a player's eventual impact. Or even as a predictive measure. (Darius Morris's assist percentages were generally less than half as much as the 44% he put up his sophomore year. And he comes in at less than 20% for his career. And the same is true for Norris Cole, not to mention others on the list like Nolan Smith, for whom it is close to being true.) Though perhaps we might assume, based on Rivers' and Lavine's initial results in the NBA, that players who score in that 13% area just don't have the passing instincts to be incredibly effective passers, even with their athletic advantages. But as with Bledsoe before them, there is still some time to prove me wrong.





Turnover Percentage



1. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 9.8

2. Monte Morris: 9.9

3. Nolan Smith (junior): 10.2

4. CJ McCollum (junior): 10.5

5. Damian Lillard (junior): 10.7

6. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 10.9

7. Charles Jenkins (senior): 11.1

8. Nate Wolters (senior): 11.2

9. Ray Maccullum (junior): 11.3

10. Derrick Marks (junior): 11.5

11. Zach Lavine: 11.6

12. Joseph Young (junior): 11.7

13. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 11.6

14. Trey Burke (sophomore): 11.9

15. Norris Cole (senior): 12.2

16. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 12.4

17. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 13.0

18. Cory Joseph: 13.1

18. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 13.1

20. Gary Payton II (junior): 13.4

20. Jerian Grant (senior): 13.4

22. Reggie Jackson (junior): 13.9

22. Austin Rivers: 13.9

24. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 14.0

25. Shelvin Mack (senior): 14.1

26. Delon Wright (senior): 14.2

27. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 14.3

28. D'Angelo Russell: 14.8

28. Nolan Smith (senior): 14.8

30. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 15.4

31. Corey Hawkins (senior): 15.8

32. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 15.9

32. Tyus Jones: 15.9

34. Kyrie Irving: 16.4

35. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 16.6

36. Brandon Knight: 16.8

37. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 17.2

38. Briante Webber (senior): 17.3

39. Darius Morris (sophomore): 17.6

40. TJ McConnell (senior): 18.4

41. Tony Wroten: 18.7

42. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 19.5

43. Wade Baldwin: 19.5

44. Josh Selby: 20.1

44. Marquis Teague: 20.1

46. John Wall: 21.4

47. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 22.2

48. Kris Dunn (junior): 22.6

49. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 22.8

50. Eric Bledsoe: 23.2

51. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 27.8



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. Turnover Percentage is another statistic it's hard to read too much into, at least at the top of the list. Point guards normally begin their careers with terrible turnover percentages, and a great many of the point guards like E'Twuan Moore, CJ McCollum, Nolan Smith, Nate Wolters, Charles Jenkins, Norris Cole, Shlelvin Mack, Reggie Jackson, and Zach LaVine exhibited terrible Turnover Percentages early in their careers despite being very good at not turning the ball over in college.



2. For a great many of them, that is, Nolan Smith, Nate Wolters and Charles Jenkins, these problems were persistent. But others like E'Twuan Moore showed real signs of improvement before their NBA careers were cut short because of other deficits. And Norris Cole, Reggie Jackson and Shelvin Mack improved greatly as their careers went on, not to an elite level but to a respectable percentage in the 14-15% range. CJ McCollum in his second season, playing often in an off-ball role, was even better than respectable at 10.8%.



3. For Damian Lillard, Ray MacCallum and the young players at the top of the list (Trey Burke, Cory Joseph, Austin Rivers) protecting the ball seems to be a skill they carried into the league from the jump. All of these players care comfortably in the 10-13% range in the NBA. So there is definitely a correlation from NCAA to the pro game, at least for younger prospects, or perhaps prospects who had success early on in their college careers. And perhaps also for players with athletic advantage as Rivers and Lillard are two of the quicker players with the ball in their hands.



4. This bodes very well for Monte Morris. If you'll notice, there's no young player remotely as good at protecting the ball as Monte Morris. And with Morris, as with MacCallum and Joseph before him, this ability comes in no small part of the consistency with which these players make good decisions. Monte Morris is also unflappable on the ball with an incredibly tight handle, the alertness to recognize trouble areas, and the quickness to get through tight spaces even when he does get caught dribbling into a danger area. A moderately high assist percentage and a low turnover percentage, 3x as low as his assist percentage, at such a young age points to Morris's real skill in running an offense. The fact that ISU uses some Pro Sets and Philosophies due to the presence of Fred Hoiberg as their coach also points to a positive transition into the league. He's not Chris Paul (no one is), but he gives you that kind of decision making and stability at the point guard position.



5. Finally we have something that Delon Wright doesn't excel at. He was only average at not turning the ball over, and I'd expect he's one of those players who has a rough go at first posting percentages in the 16-20% before settling into that 14-15% range as Cole, Jackson and Mack did before him.



6. D'Angelo Russell, somewhat surprisingly to me, is sensational at not turning the ball over for a Freshman. Especially for a Freshman with such a high assist percentage. 14.8%. If you notice, John Wall, Wade Baldwin and Kyrie Irving, the three players in Russell's ball park at creating opportunities for his teammates at so young an age, are all somewhat to significantly worse, posting turnover percentages of 21.4%, 19.5% and 16.4% respectively.



7. Doing poorly at protecting the ball as a Freshman does seem to mean something, at least a little with regards to a player's future prospects of protecting the ball, though it doesn't doom a player to being terrible. Eric Bledsoe has settled in that 18% area. John Wall cuts a wider swath at 15-19%, but he's at 17.7% for his career. Percentages that are good enough for players who do so many positive things on the court.



8. And we can see the same persistence for the other players between 18.5 and 30% on the list. Every player has put up an at least 18% turnover clip in the NBA. Tony Wroten, Michael Carter-Williams, Lorenzo Brown were all comfortably in that 18-20% range. Tyshawn Taylor, Josh Selby and Kendall Marshall were all closer to 25%. And Marquis Teague was somewhere in between. So while turnover percentage doesn't necessarily mean anything at the top of the list, we can read a lot into turnover percentage at the bottom of the list, especially for older prospects. The problem for all of these players is that none of them (yet) do enough positive things, in terms of scoring, passing, rebounding and playing defense to offset how loose they are with the basketball.



9. This is likely going to be the question with Kris Dunn. He's very likely going to turn the ball over at the NBA level, at somewhere between 17-22%. The question is if he can get into that 17-19% area, and if Kris Dunn will do enough positive things to offset the turnover issues. Very likely Dunn is going to play defense (he's a very good athlete and good defensively at the college level), pass the ball (a player with athletic advantage and the best vision in the college game is likely to be able to create assist opportunities at the next level), rebound (he's in the top 10 in this category). The real question comes down to his scoring efficiency, and Dunn is head over heels a better prospect here than MCW or Tony Wroten.



It's not only Dunn's ability to get to the rim, either in the half court or in transition (102 baskets at the rim, 82 unassisted, 69 without putbacks), but Dunn's ability to make jump shots off the dribble, making 56 two point jumpers at a very respectable 42.2% clip while only having 7 come assisted. And from three point range where Dunn shot 35.1%, making 27 baskets while only 12 came assisted. The free throw percentage is nothing special at 68.6%. But if you were going to bet on one of the three players, it'd be Dunn by far. I'd say Michael Carter-Williams is probably his floor, and he could easily be as valuable as Wall or Bledsoe if he comes close to his ceiling. Regardless, wherever Dunn goes, I'd expect turnovers to follow.



10. I just wanted to point out the trade that many players make in terms of Assists and Turnovers. If you'll notice Marshall, Carter-Williams, Morris and Dunn all place very highly on both lists. Whereas Monte Morris places more moderately in the assist department but is exceptional at not turning the ball over, judging rightly that the dangerous passes that lead to these assist are not worth the risk. A pure point guard must trust his teammates, and not put everything on his own back, even if you can be somewhat successful the other way. You'll still never be as successful as a player like Chris Paul, who finds a way not to make such trade-offs.



11. Being in the middle of the list without further stepping into the context each player's game provides tells us very little about a player's future. But the players at the top, even when they are bad and unsuccessful, maxing out at around a 20% turnover percentage, aren't as bad as the worst players in the bottom 10-12, maxing out at worse than a 25% turnover percentage. So we should note that.



12. And lastly, being better at not turning the ball over early in one's college career might be a positive indicator, even if a player struggles with this at the end of his career. Isaiah Thomas is an example of this, posting near 17% in his junior year, but hewing much closer to 13% the rest of his career, which is where his NBA percentages have been.



Usage Rate



CJ McCollum (junior): 33.6

Derrick Marks (junior): 33.5

Damian Lillard (junior): 33.0

Corey Hawkins (senior): 32.2

Norris Cole (senior): 32.1

Cameron Payne (sophomore): 31.5

Tony Wroten: 31.2

Nolan Smith (senior): 30.7

D'Angelo Russell: 30.2

Olivier Hanlan (junior): 30.1

Nate Wolters (senior): 29.8

Marcus Smart (sophomore): 29.2

Charles Jenkins (senior): 28.7

Joseph Young (junior): 28.7

Shelvin Mack (senior): 28.6

Trey Burke (sophomore): 28.3

Kris Dunn (junior): 28.0

E'Twuan Moore (senior): 28.0

Jordan Clarkson (senior): 27.9

Terry Rozier (sophomore): 27.8

Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 27.6

Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 27.5

Darius Morris (sophomore): 27.3

Reggie Jackson (junior): 27.2

Brandon Knight: 27.0

Isaiah Canaan (junior): 27.0

Kyrie Irving: 26.4

Isaiah Thomas (junior): 26.2

John Wall: 25.7

Nolan Smith (junior): 25.2

Austin Rivers: 25.2

Josh Selby: 24.4

Ray Maccullum (junior): 24.4

Jerian Grant (senior): 24.2

Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 23.5

Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 22.8

Delon Wright (senior): 22.8

Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 22.2

Gary Payton II (junior): 22.0

Shane Larkin (sophomore): 21.3

Eric Bledsoe: 20.4

Marquis Teague: 20.2

Zach Lavine: 20.1

TJ McConnell (senior): 18.9

Briante Webber (senior): 18.9

Tyus Jones: 18.7

Wade Baldwin: 18.7

Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 18.5

Cory Joseph: 17.3

Monte Morris: 16.9

Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 13.9



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. Here we see very clearly five types of players, as well as some that are caught between distinctions because of their college role, such as Ray MacCallum, who actually fits pretty well within the first group, despite a slightly higher usage rate. Firstly, the pass first players at the bottom of the list in Kendall Marshall, Monte Morris, Cory Joseph, Tyus Jones, Briante Webber, and TJ McConnell. These players run their team's offenses and get everyone involved. All players with less than 20% Usage. If you'll notice, most of these players have fairly high assist percentages as well. Lorenzo Brown, Gary Payton II, Shane Larkin and Delon Wright fit in here as well, despite slightly higher usage. In recent years, this has been a lower upside group, but that has not always been the case, and this fact points more to the rarity of the pure point guard than an intrinsic lack of upside in the position.



2. Secondly, you have the scoring points in McCollum, Marks, Lillard, Hawkins, Russell, Smart, Hanlan, Young, Clarkson, Charles Jenkins, Rozier, Knight, Reggie Jackson, Canaan, Knight, Thomas, Mack and Irving. These are often higher upside players, and the hope for them is either that they can score as efficiently as Curry or Harden or that they can reign in their games a little and trust more in the offense. You can notice these players not only by their high usage, but because their assist rates are often in a 1:1 ratio with their usage rates.



3. Then you have the stat stuffers. The players with high usage and even higher assist rates. Basically everything this player does becomes an outcome of some kind. Players like Kris Dunn, Nate Wolters, Jerian Grant, E'Twuan Moore, Elfriid Payton, Cameron Payne, Darius Morris, Wade Baldwin, John Wall fit in here. These players don't necessarily look to score, just to make what they think is the best decision. You can spot them because they generally have high usage while sporting even higher assist percentages. This group also tends to have high upside players. Wade Baldwin is this type of player but spent time off the ball as well, so he also fits into the next group.



4. Then there's the players who played out of position in college. NBA point guards who played at shooting guard. All tend to have lower usage rates and assist rates: Nolan Smith, Austin Rivers, Josh Selby, Zach Lavine, Eric Bledsoe, Gary Payton II, Malcolm Brogdon, Wade Baldwin and Demetrius Jackson could all fit into this category. It's hard to make definite distinctions about these players' abilities at the point, because we didn't always get to see them at that position in college.



5. Still, as a subset of this group, we see the chuckers: Rivers, Selby, Lavine. Players whose combinations of Usage-Often Bad Turnover Percentage-Low Assist Percentage-Low True Shooting Percentage point to a very unattractive NBA profile, especially early in the draft.



6. Of course, there are players who can fit into multiple groups. Some of the stat stuffers either veer towards being a scoring point or a true point and vise versa. And a player like Wade Baldwin could easily find himself in three groups because of how he was used at Vanderbilt.



7. Besides that, I'd like to point out that having a High Usage Percentage in college to go along with a High True Shooting Percentage doesn't necessarily mean anything in terms of one's NBA prospects. It has boded well for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. It also meant next to nothing for Charles Jenkins or Trey Burke or Nate Wolters. But the age at which Russell and Cameron Payne acheived both things should be pointed out. Almost no freshman or sophomores shoot so frequently and score so efficiently. Only Irving, who would be way more efficient than either even at a high usage, bests them, and he does so by so much that it hard to make a true comparison.



8. I find the usage number for Jerian Grant interesting. 24.2% is not that high for a player known to play "Hero-Ball." And I think it's another number, since Grant doesn't need to dominate the ball to put his imprint on the game, that points to the fact that Grant could really succeed as a weakside wing. The defensive numbers which follow, to go along with the rebounding numbers, correspond with what my eyes told me during the season, which is that Grant will not succeed at Point Guard in the NBA.

Defensive Numbers



Steal Percentage



1. Briante Webber (senior): 8.9

2. Gary Payton II (junior): 5.4

3. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 5.0

4. Kris Dunn (junior): 4.9

5. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 4.7

6. CJ McCollum (junior): 4.6

7. TJ McConnell (senior): 4.3

8. Delon Wright (senior): 4.0

9. Derrick Marks (junior): 3.8

10. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 3.6

10. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 3.6

12. Tony Wroten: 3.5

12. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 3.5

14. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 3.4

14. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 3.4

16. Monte Morris: 3.2

17. Wade Baldwin: 3.1

18. Kyrie Irving: 3.0

18. Ray Maccullum (junior): 3.0

20. John Wall: 2.9

20. Charles Jenkins (senior): 2.9

22. D'Angelo Russell: 2.8

22. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 2.8

22. Trey Burke (sophomore): 2.8

22. Nate Wolters (senior): 2.8

22. Jerian Grant (senior): 2.8

27. Norris Cole (senior): 2.7

27. Corey Hawkins (senior): 2.7

27. Tyus Jones: 2.7

30. Eric Bledsoe: 2.6

31. Damian Lillard (junior): 2.5

31. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 2.5

31. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 2.5

34. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 2.4

34. Joseph Young (junior): 2.4

36. Josh Selby: 2.3

36. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 2.3

38. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 2.2

39. Nolan Smith (junior): 2.1

39. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 2.1

39. Zach Lavine: 2.1

42. Nolan Smith (senior): 2.0

42. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 2.0

44. Reggie Jackson (junior): 1.9

44. Cory Joseph: 1.9

44. Darius Morris (sophomore): 1.9

44. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 1.9

48. Austin Rivers: 1.7

48. Marquis Teague: 1.7

50. Shelvin Mack (senior): 1.5

51. Brandon Knight: 1.1



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. Somewhat surprisingly, steals don't look to be a great indicator of athleticism or future success, especially for young players. Brandon Knight is by a mile the worst player in the list, yet a top 20 player in the NBA at generating steals. Austin Rivers, while not exceptional, is perfectly average in the league at stealing the basketball. As is Reggie Jackson and Corey Joseph. Jordan Clarkson was better than average in his first year, having all of his ability translate from one level to the next. Whereas a player like Trey Burke's percentage dropped in half. While Eric Bledsoe and John Wall, hardly standouts on this list are among the best players in the NBA at both defense and generating steals.



2. So on the whole, especially once we get past the upper echelon of players, the results are hit-and miss. There could be many reasons for that. Age, inexperience, athleticism, awareness, or even how a player's team plays. For instance Malcolm Brogdon plays in a very effective, very conservative defense (in everything except for double teaming or trapping, mainly with Anthony Gill or Isaiah Wilkins.) This could suppress the steal rate of an extremely athletic and excellent defender. And irregardless, an average rate for Brogdon is hardly an indictment of his athletic ability.



3. That being said, of the five players in the top 15 whom are in the league (Smart, Carter-Williams, McCollum, Payton, Larkin) all excel at generating steals in the NBA. Smart, Carter-Williams, Payton and Larkin are all in the top 15 among guards at between 2.6% and 3.0%. McCollum is in the top 25 at 2.3%.



4. Re-read that last sentence. Do you notice anything? There are only five players in the top 15 in steal percentage who are currently in the league. And only one more in Lorenzo Brown who technically has a contract but doesn't play enough to qualify. That is, despite going back four or five drafts, that puts 9 of the 15 players in steal percentage in this draft or the next. And at a rate that highly correlates at the very least with success in creating turnovers in the NBA. Nine. This is not the remotely the percentage we'd expect to see, and it points to something I've not heard anyone talk about: The next two drafts are filled with some of the best defensive prospects at the Point Guard position that we've seen, at the very least in the last decade. (This is a trend that continues throughout the defensive numbers.)



5. In this draft, there's Briante Webber with the unreal 8.9% steal percentage. And I can tell you from watching, it's not because he gambles excessively. A huge number of these steals are on-ball strips. There's TJ McConnell at a very respectable 4.3% Delon Wright at 4.0%. (Again in the top 10.) Derrick Marks at 3.8%. Cameron Payne at 3.6%. And Terry Rozier at 3.5%. I'd project them all to be able to generate these opportunities at the next level. I'd also project McConnell (who is as tenacious as Dellavadova but a much better defender on the college level, even of much bigger players), Delon Wright, and Terry Rozier to be outstanding defenders on the ball.



6. In the next draft, there's Gary Payton II (5.4%) and Kris Dunn (4.9%), with Wade Baldwin (3.2%) and Monte Morris (3.1%), coming in not that far behind in the top 20 and being very young to do so. That is, there's an insane collection of potentially plus defensive point guards coming into the league. Especially when you add in Malcolm Brogdon, who might be a better on ball defender than any of them.



7. D'Angelo Russell is not exceptional here, but he is very good for his age group coming in right around where Baldwin, Irving, Wall and Bledsoe are.



8. Steals are a facet of the game that Tyus Jones was reasonably good at in college, but the mark is in the range where it's definitely of less predictive value than looking at Jones's athleticism and wing span, which suggest he'll be no better than average here in the NBA.





Block Percentage



1. Gary Payton II (junior): 4.6

2. Delon Wright (senior): 3.2

3. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 1.9

3. Charles Jenkins (senior): 1.9

5. Kyrie Irving: 1.8

5. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 1.8

5. Ray Maccullum (junior): 1.8

8. Derrick Marks (junior): 1.7

8. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 1.7

8. Reggie Jackson (junior): 1.7

8. CJ McCollum (junior): 1.7

12. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 1.6

12. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 1.6

12. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 1.6

15. John Wall: 1.5

15. Trey Burke (sophomore): 1.5

17. Jerian Grant (senior): 1.4

18. Monte Morris: 1.3

19. Tony Wroten: 1.2

20. D'Angelo Russell: 1.1

20. Eric Bledsoe: 1.1

20. Kris Dunn (junior): 1.1

23. Cory Joseph: 0.9

23. Briante Webber (senior): 0.9

23. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 0.9

26. Zach Lavine: 0.8

26. Marquis Teague: 0.8

28. Damian Lillard (junior): 0.7

28. Corey Hawkins (senior): 0.7

30. Brandon Knight: 0.6

30. Nolan Smith (junior): 0.6

30. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 0.6

34. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 0.5

34. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 0.5

34. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 0.5

34. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 0.5

38. Wade Baldwin: 0.4

38. Nate Wolters (senior): 0.4

40. TJ McConnell (senior): 0.3

40. Norris Cole (senior): 0.3

40. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 0.3

40.Shelvin Mack (senior): 0.3

44. Nolan Smith (senior): 0.2

44. Tyus Jones: 0.2

44. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 0.2

44. Josh Selby: 0.2

44. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 0.2

49. Darius Morris (sophomore): 0.1

49. Austin Rivers: 0.1

49. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 0.1

49. Joseph Young (junior): 0.1



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. Though looking at steal percentage proved very fruitful for those exceptional, Block Percentage, surprisingly to me, is perhaps even more instructive, especially when seen in conjunction with Defensive Box Plus-Minus. (DBPM.) Though looking at these two indicators to go along with steals is perhaps the best way to go about the enterprise of projection. Though, even as we do this, we should be hesitant about adding Steals and Blocks together into "Stocks." As a low block percentage is a major red flag, especially when it coincides with a low DBPM.



2. We can see this clearly by looking at those players who score 0.5% or less, and especially those who have a score less than 0.3%. Kendall Marshall, Tyshawn Taylor, Nate Wolters, Shane Larkin, Isaiah Canaan, Isaiah Thomas, Josh Selby, Nolan Smith, Shelvin Mack, Darius Morris, and Austin Rivers. This is a group of the worst point guard defenders the NBA has seen in recent times. Of the player's who scored 0.3 or lower, there's only one who managed to become a plus defender: Norris Cole. If we add Dellavadova (who I left out by accident but will address in the comments, we have a second defender who is decent and score 0.3%.)



3. So this is a defensive flag for McConnell, though he scores so well everywhere else, I don't think it necessarily indicates a reason not to trust what we see with out eyes.



4. However, with Tyus Jones, it's a huge defensive flag. And I think there's some reason to doubt if he ever becomes even average on that side of the ball. And though it's possible, it looks to be a low percentage outcome for him.



5. If we look between 0.3% and 1.0%, the number becomes slightly less of a flag. That is, we see good defenders in Cory Joseph (0.9%) and Brandon Knight (0.6%). But we also find Lavine, Teague, Lillard, and Nolan Smith again to add to the list of poor defenders.



6. This doesn't seem to be a huge black mark for Briante Webber, Brogdon, Rozier or Wade Baldwin, all of whom are excellent defensive players in college or have the size and athleticism to become so. However for Corey Hawkins, it's another athleticism ding.



7. As we move up the list, we all see something else that's interesting. That is, while there are high upside defensive players at the top of the list even after Payton and Wright (those two are far enough away from everyone to be in their own league), we find a much more inconsistent group of players overall. Jenkins was a terrible player at the NBA level and he's fourth on the list, for instance. Interestingly enough though, all of these players, the ones who do well in block percentage yet manage to be poor NBA defenders, are highly flagged by DBPM.



8. Even still, steal percentage or DBPM is probably a better way to pick out the high upside defenders, if you only have to pick one. Whereas Block Percentage or DBPM is probably a better way to pick out players who will bring negative value on defensive end, if you only have to pick one. Looking at all three numbers together starts to give you a real clear picture of a prospect's ability and potential that often very closely aligns with what the eye's see.



9. I'd be remiss not to mention Cameron Payne, D'Angelo Russell, Derrick Marks, Monte Morris, Briante Webber and Kris Dunn. To go along with Delon Wright and Gary Payton II. All of these players score average to elite in both categories. And it's especially impressive for Russell and Morris, because young players rarely do very well at blocks and steals. That's because blocks and steals are awareness and reaction indicators as much as they are athleticism indicators. And I'd hypothesize it's one of the reasons they tend to be such great indicators of success at the next level. Because there's so few statistics that require some degree of athleticism, intelligence, awareness, reaction ability to do incredibly well. Depending on one's physical abilities, blocks and steals require at least three of these measures (athleticism, awareness, reaction ability) if not all four.



10. I'd be remiss in implying Briante Webber has not always been fantastic at defense. He has been. Just in another stratosphere this year. Before his injury, it was perhaps the best defensive season ever by a perimeter player. And definitely in the conversation of 10-20 seasons that could be discussed.



Defensive Box Plus Minus



1. Briante Webber (senior): 8.0

2. Gary Payton II (junior): 7.9

3. Delon Wright (senior): 7.4

4. TJ McConnell (senior): 5.7

5. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 5.5

6. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 5.2

7. Kris Dunn (junior): 5.1

8. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 5.0

9. Cory Joseph: 3.7

9. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 3.7

11. Kyrie Irving: 3.5

12. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 3.4

13. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 3.2

14. Monte Morris: 3.1

15. D'Angelo Russell: 3.0

15. CJ McCollum (junior): 3.0

17. Derrick Marks (junior): 2.9

18. Tony Wroten: 2.8

18. Tyus Jones: 2.8

20. Norris Cole (senior): 2.7

20. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 2.6

22. Trey Burke (sophomore): 2.3

22. Nolan Smith (senior): 2.3

24. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 2.1

25. Wade Baldwin: 2.0

25. Darius Morris (sophomore): 2.0

27. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 1.9

27. Josh Selby: 1.9

29. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 1.2

30. Marquis Teague: 1.1

31. Shelvin Mack (senior): 1.0

31. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 1.0

33. Jerian Grant (senior): 0.9

33. Zach Lavine: 0.7

35. Brandon Knight: 0.5

35. Ray Maccullum (junior): 0.5

37. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 0.4

38. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 0.3

39. Reggie Jackson (junior): 0.2

39. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 0.2

41. Austin Rivers: 0.0

42. Corey Hawkins (senior): -0.1

43. Joseph Young (junior): -0.2

44. Isaiah Canaan (junior): -0.3

44. Olivier Hanlan (junior): -0.3

44. Nate Wolters (senior): -0.3

47. Charles Jenkins (senior): -1.1

48. Damian Lillard (junior): -1.4



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. Point guards in general don't do very well in this metric. Any score above 3 is very impressive. Any score above 4 or 5 at the position seems to mean something signficany about a player's defensive ability and potential as we have Michael Carter-Williams and Smart, and then the six best point guard defenders in college basketball: Webber, Wright, Brogdon, Payton II, Dunn, McConnell. I couldn't pick a better list if I tried.



2. You'll no doubt notice the absence of Wall and Bledsoe from the list. The numbers don't go back that far. They very well may have scored exceptionally.



3. While it doesn't necessarily say good things about the prospect, scoring around 2.0 or above doesn't indicate anythign negative either. Payton and Cole have become or will become excellent defenders at the position. Joseph is very good. Tony Wroten might not get there, but it's not because of his athleticism or any reason you could have been absolutely sure about after watching one year in college.



4. That being said, players who score less than 1.5 rarely become good defenders. The only one of them to do well on defensive metrics is Brandon Knight. And Damian Lillard finally put up an average season this year, after being one of the worst defensive point guards in the league his first two years. Every other player is slightly (as in the case of Reggie Jackson) to significantly below average. And though these metrics are not End-All-Be-Alls, especially in capturing defense, they do capture something.



5. So this is perhaps the biggest defensive flag, especially when one also does poorly in block rate. So Joseph Young, Olivier Hanlan, Corey Hawkins, Cameron Payne and Jerian Grant all get flagged here big time.



6. Cameron Payne's three saving graces are that he's younger than the other players, that he does exceptionally in both blocks and steals, while being decent in rebounding, which indicate some form of athleticism and awareness, and lastly, that he does exceptionally well in all the awareness/intelligence categories like assist percentage and turnover percentage. If you'll notice, Payne is the only young player to find himself so low on the list while having so many positive indicators elsewhere.



7. Jerian Grant does well in all these things too, except rebounding. Though once again, I think his lateral quickness is a huge issue at the point guard position.



8. Once again, isn't it insane, or at least slightly strange, how good the next two classes of point guard defenders are?

Other Metrics



Offensive Box Plus Minus



1. Kyrie Irving: 10.8

2. Damian Lillard (junior): 10.3

3. Charles Jenkins (senior): 10.0

4. Trey Burke (sophomore): 9.9

5. Reggie Jackson (junior): 9.0

5. Nate Wolters (senior): 9.0

5. Joseph Young (junior): 9.0

8. Delon Wright (senior): 8.8

9. D'Angelo Russell: 8.7

10. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 8.6

11. Corey Hawkins (senior): 8.5

12. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 8.0

12. Norris Cole (senior): 8.0

12. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 8.0

12. Jerian Grant (senior): 8.0

16. Derrick Marks (junior): 7.9

17. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 7.4

18. Nolan Smith (senior): 7.3

19. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 7.2

20. E'Twuan Moore (senior):7.1

20. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 7.1

22. TJ McConnell (senior): 7.0

23. CJ McCollum (junior): 6.8

24. Monte Morris: 6.7

24. Kris Dunn (junior): 6.7

26. Ray Maccullum (junior): 6.5

27.Olivier Hanlan (junior): 6.4

28. Tyus Jones: 6.2

29. Wade Baldwin: 5.6

30. Brandon Knight: 5.4

30. Darius Morris (sophomore): 5.4

32. Shelvin Mack (senior): 5.3

33. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 5.1

34. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 5.0

35. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 4.7

35. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 4.7

35. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 4.7

38. Gary Payton II (junior): 4.4

39. Briante Webber (senior): 4.1

40. Cory Joseph: 3.9

41. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 3.9

42. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 3.8

42. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 3.8

44. Austin Rivers: 3.7

45. Zach Lavine: 2.8

46. Tony Wroten: 2.4

47. Marquis Teague: 1.9

48. Josh Selby: 0.9



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. We've already covered most of this ground by now. Though we should note, players who score less than 4.5 rarely become very good offensive players. As so far, there's only two positive markers in Joseph and Clarkson. Austin Rivers however is starting to change perceptions in these playoffs.



2. At 4.7 we have two players who can mostly do everything but shoot. And it's really hard to parse the list out of the context of how the offensive value was accrued and how old the prospect was.



3. Scoring highly as an upperclassmen is hit and miss as you have Damian Lillard but also Charles Jenkins. Still, this is yet another place where Delon Wright is in the top 10. Wright is an older player, but the fact that it's impossible to find a single player who does so well at everything really does speak to his unique place as an older prospect. I can't help but think of Draymond Green, who is another older prospect who got dinged not because of his athleticism or potential, but purely because he was older and that evaluators were paying attention to the wrong things. Wright may never be a top 5 player. But there's a reasonably good chance he fits into that 10-35 range at some point.



4. However, scoring highly as an underclassmen is a very good indicator. You have four underclassmen who scored 8.0 or above in Kyrie, Russell, Payne and Smart. Then not another young player until Demetrius Jackson and Monte Morris in the 7.0 range, and not another player of Freshman experience until you find Tyus Jones at 6.2.



5. Russell and Payne are also the only players in the top 10 without a True Shooting Percentage of at least 60%. That is, they have very diversified offensive games, especially for young players.



6. Kyrie really is the only somewhat comparable data point in recent years to Russell. They are very different players. But they are really the only Freshman point guards who were so good so quickly, at least in this group. Perhaps we can add Wall to the list, though it's his athleticism that gets him there. As much as his play on the court. He wasn't quite as good as either player in college. If we go further back, we get to Chris Paul or Derrick Rose. Stephon Curry was great as a freshman, though he was more of a wing back then. Regardless, he's unique.



Overall Box Plus Minus



1. Delon Wright (senior): 16.2

2. Kyrie Irving: 14.3

3. Marcus Smart (sophomore): 13.5

4. TJ McConnell (senior): 12.7

5. Gary Payton II (junior): 12.3

6. Trey Burke (sophomore): 12.2

7. Briante Webber (senior): 12.1

8. Kris Dunn (junior): 11.8

9. D'Angelo Russell: 11.7

10. Derrick Marks (junior): 10.9

11. Norris Cole (senior): 10.7

12. Shane Larkin (sophomore): 10.6

13. E'Twuan Moore (senior): 10.5

14. Malcolm Brogdon (sophomore): 10.1

15. Michael Carter-Williams (junior): 10.0

16. CJ McCollum (junior): 9.8

16. Monte Morris: 9.8

18. Nolan Smith (senior): 9.6

19. Tyus Jones: 9.4

20. Nate Wolters (senior): 9.3

21. Reggie Jackson (junior): 9.1

22. Demetrius Jackson (sophomore): 9.0

23. Cameron Payne (sophomore): 8.9

23. Jerian Grant (senior): 8.9

23. Charles Jenkins (senior): 8.9

26. Damian Lillard (junior): 8.8

26. Joseph Young (junior): 8.8

28. Isaiah Thomas (junior): 8.4

28. Terry Rozier (sophomore): 8.4

28. Corey Hawkins (senior): 8.4

31. Isaiah Canaan (junior): 7.8

32. Cory Joseph: 7.7

33. Wade Baldwin: 7.6

34. Darius Morris (sophomore): 7.4

35. Ray Maccullum (junior): 7.1

36. Elfriid Payton (sophomore): 6.8

37. Lorenzo Brown (sophomore): 6.4

38. Shelvin Mack (senior): 6.3

39. Tyshawn Taylor (senior): 6.0

39. Olivier Hanlan (junior): 6.0

41. Brandon Knight: 5.9

42. Tony Wroten: 5.2

43. Kendall Marshall (sophomore): 4.2

44. Jordan Clarkson (senior): 4.0

45. Austin Rivers: 3.7

46. Zach Lavine: 3.5

47. Marquis Teague: 3.0

48. Josh Selby: 2.8



What have we learned? What should we look for?



1. Obviously Box Plus Minus numbers are not an End-All-Be-All and a player's age is very important when taking them into consideration. WE see many reasons to question them as a gospel. Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, Cory Joseph in the bottom half of prospects. And older unsuccessful players like E'Twuan Moore or Michael Carter-Williams in the top 15.



2. We do see an inordinate number of the top rated players, whether under or upperclassmen being in this draft or the next. 6 of the top 15. 8 of the top 20. 11 of the top 25. Which should tell you something about the point guard depth in these two classes, since we're not even considering Mudiay or next year's incoming freshman.



3. As we've gone down the criteria, I think it's pretty clear how unique Delon Wright is as a prospect. There's not a single flag on him save age and his three point shot. Even if there weren't any number of positive indicators about his shooting, the rest of Wright's game is good enough to provide a positive impact on both sides of the floor even without a three pointer. Add a three pointer, he's almost certainly a multi-year all-star.



4. It's also equally clear how unique Russell is. That he, Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart (though only his sophomore season is listed) are the only two freshman to score over 11, or even 10, says something. You have to drop many names down the list to find the next freshman in Tyus Jones.



5. I think TJ McConnell is being underrated by the draft process. Not a perfect prospect by any means, but he has any number of strong indicators in his shooting, passing and defensive profile. If you are drafting for upside, he's probably not your choice. But he seems like a likely bet to become a solid player in the league, at least as a tenacious defensive backup who can do some things offensively, ala Matthew Dellavadova. The difference being that McConnell is actually likely to be good defensively whereas Dellavadova is just tenacious. (Dellavadova posted a 1.9% steal percentage, a 0.3% block percentage and a 0.2 DBPM. McConnell's defensive ability and consistency throughout his college career-McConnell being one of the few point guards who was actually reasonably good as a freshman-are the two biggest differences in the player's profiles.)



6. Lastly, I also accidentally left out Kemba Walker. Though his numbers wholly in keeping with the slightly successful player he's become. His junior year he had a 54.5 TS%, a 30.7 FTr, a 7.2 RB%, a 28.5 Ast%, a 13.5 TOV%, a 28.4 USG %, 3.2 STL%, .8 BLK%, a 2.7 DBPM, a 10.2 OBPM, and a 12.9 BPM overall. I think we can see the marginally efficient scoring point guard, who plays perfectly average defense.

Conclusion



Whew. Long list. Thank you for reading. Please, draw your own conclusions and share them.

