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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party’s president Amit Shah must have felt let down by a sudden bolt from the blue. Or rather from the saffron. Ram Madhav, a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh ideologue and the BJP’s national general secretary publicly implied that the ruling party may not get a full majority on its own and will have to depend on coalition partners to return to power after results of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections are announced 23 May.

Both Modi and Amit Shah have been publicly maintaining that ‘phir ek bar’, there will be a ‘Modi sarkar’ — with around 350 sears to the BJP. Party leader Nitin Gadkari, too, has stated that he was “not with the opinion of Ram Madhav”, claiming that the BJP will get a ‘clear majority’ — “more than 300”.

What nobody can comprehend is why Ram Madhav would make such a provocative statement just a fortnight before the actual results are out. Some pollsters have been giving the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a clear majority, although quite a few psephologists and some senior journalists have maintained that the results, if anything, are “unpredictable”. But still, why did Ram Madhav concede a setback so early?

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Clearly, Ram Madhav is suggesting that even the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will fall short of majority. Therefore post-poll alliance looks inevitable. There are many people in the political and stock market who are trying to decode what Ram Madhav may have actually meant.

Trouble for Modi

In a scenario where post poll alliance is a necessity for the BJP, its allies in the NDA could demand a replacement for Modi. With that in mind, one may concur that Ram Madhav may be hinting at such a change. If so, then Ram Madhav is lending credence to the buzz from rumour-bazaar that even the RSS is not keen on Modi continuing in the prime minister’s role, which further explains why the names of Nitin Gadkari and Rajnath Singh have begun to circulate again.

It is unlikely that Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and national security advisor Ajit Doval are not aware of the buzz. They too must have kept their Plan B ready for any eventuality. If neo-nationalism, coupled with social engineering (caste configuration) mainly in Uttar Pradesh, give the BJP a three-per cent swing, then the BJP can win 50-plus seats in the electorally crucial state. With 50-odd seats in Uttar Pradesh, the predictions by some journalists that the BJP could win 220 Lok Sabha seats would hold true. In that case, it would not be difficult for Modi-led BJP to form the government — albeit with the help of its current alliance partners. Others will come forward if the numbers are strong for the BJP/NDA.

Lessons from the past

In 1996, Atal Bihari Vajpayee could not get the sufficient number from BJP’s alliance partners to stay in power and had to quit after holding the PM’s chair for only 13 days. The BJP was the single largest party with 161 seats, with three allies – Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal and Haryana Vikas Manch. After Vajpayee-led government collapsed, HD Deve Gowda (then with Janata Dal) formed the government with the Congress providing support from the outside.

The moment Congress withdrew support to HD Deve Gowda’s government, he too had to quit. Deve Gowda’s successor Inder Kumar Gujral similarly could not survive in the Prime Minister’s Office for long, as the Congress withdrew support to him as well. Both Deve Gowda’s and IK Gujral’s governments were “anti-BJP and anti-Congress”.

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These two experiences with the Indian polity show that unless there is the direct participation by either of the two national parties — the BJP and the Congress — a ‘government’ at the Centre cannot sustain itself for long. One of the main reasons why the Congress support is seen by some parties with suspicion is that it has not let a regime where it was not the main player live through its term.

It is against this backdrop that the 1998 Lok Sabha elections were fought. The rejuvenated BJP under Atal Bihari Vajpayee could gather as many as 24 friendly parties ready with support. Although the BJP secured only 182 seats, the government survived for the next 13 months, and came to an end when maverick J Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK withdrew support. AIADMK’s 17 Members of Parliament and the Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati, and the Lok Dal led by Chautalas too voted against the Vajpayee government. The fall by just one vote was dramatic and rather unexpected.

Not just about numbers

If the BJP manages 180 plus seats on 23 May, then with hard bargain and intense horse trading, Modi can continue as the prime minister. However, there are many commentators and pundits who say that he will not be able to become PM because of resistance from even current NDA partners, forget cobbling up allies after the election results, which would clearly not have given the BJP the necessary numbers for Modi and Amit Shah to flex their muscles.

But there have been precedents to both situations. Vishwanath Pratap Singh formed the government in 1989, with outside support of the Left Front and the BJP. But the BJP withdrew support following the arrest of Lal Krishna Advani over the Ayodhya rath yatra that was passing through Bihar when he was taken into custody by the police. Shortly after, Prime Minister VP Singh had to resign. With that confrontationist action, Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Lalu Prasad Yadav, who was the chief minister of Bihar at the time, changed the course of parliamentary politics.

Chandrashekhar replaced VP Singh in the PM’s post with outside support from the Congress. The fate of that government was written on the wall. When the Congress withdrew support, the government came apart. If the Chandrashekhar government had been allowed to continue for at least a couple of years or even a year, history would have changed India’s politics, and its history, would have taken a completely different path in more ways than one.

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It was during the peak of the election campaign that Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated and the electoral process was destabilised. Had there been no election at that time, Rajiv would have not been targeted and would have found time to reorganise the Congress party for the next election.

But Rajiv Gandhi’s death paved the way for PV Narasimha Rao’s leadership. Indeed, even in that tragic situation, the Congress could not win its own majority. Narasimha Rao led the government with just about 227 Congress MPs and supported mainly by Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. So, even that was a coalition government.

Even the 2004 election did not produce a majority for any party. The Congress could win only 145 seats. The BJP had 138 seats. But because of a firm pre-poll alliance, United Progressive Alliance chairperson Sonia Gandhi could claim the majority and form the government. Manmohan Singh would take oath as the Prime Minister, and return in 2009, when the election would lead to the same parties forming a coalition, despite the Congress having significantly improved its previous tally to 206 seats this time.

The point to note is that even if the BJP manages to be the single largest party, it will be in the reckoning. Modi can be stopped only if the opposition comes together solidly. If the opposition fails to work out proper and reliable understanding with other parties to form credible alliances, Modi will sail through. The ball is neither in the BJP’s court nor in the Opposition’s but is just hanging over the net. We cannot say which side it will fall to give that party an “advantage”.

The author is a former editor and Congress member of Rajya Sabha. Views are personal.

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