NEW DELHI: For the first time in eight years,

fell for the fourth straight month. As many as five out of the eight sectors covered by the index saw a contraction. The only silver lining was that the pace of decline had slowed down, suggesting that the worst may be over.

But with the sectors together accounting for over 40% of the index of

(IIP), analysts are already predicting an adverse impact on the numbers when they are released in January, negating the improvement that is seen in some other segments.

“With an improvement in the performance of a number of lead indicators, including the core sector industries, auto production and non-oil merchandise exports, we expect the IIP to report modest growth in November 2019 after having contracted since September 2019,” said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ratings agency ICRA.

Latest data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Tuesday showed that core sector production was down 1.5% in November with only fertiliser, cement and refinery products showing an increase. Others including coal, steel, electricity crude and

saw a fall in output on muted demand.

“Most disappointing has been the contraction of electricity output in four consecutive months, which is a reflection of the state of the

,” said Devendra Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research.

An analysis by CARE showed that some sectors have been contracting for months, indicating a systemic rot that needs several steps to fix the problem. For instance, it said, crude oil production has been contracting for two years, while natural gas output was down for the eighth consecutive month in November.

Similarly, coal production was down for the fifth straight month, while steel production declined for the third month in a row.