A significant snow storm could impact the Front Range early next week, right on the eve of the busiest travel holiday of the year.

The largest impact looks to be on Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially hampering both the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. It could also seriously hamper air travel just before the notoriously busy Thanksgiving travel holiday.

After some disagreement earlier in the week, computer forecast models now show increased confidence on Front Range snow chances from this particular storm. Both the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) computer forecast models showed several inches of snow, starting on Monday evening.

“We’ve got fair confidence that the area will have enough snow for travel impacts Monday night into Tuesday morning,” the National Weather Service office in Boulder wrote in their forecast discussion on Saturday morning.

Exact snowfall amounts are still in question, though. This storm has the possibility to produce six inches or more of snow by the time it wraps up on Tuesday evening, if the snow hangs around through most of the day on Tuesday. Snow amounts will come into sharper focus later this weekend, when the parent storm responsible moves onto land and can be better sampled by weather stations. That information is then fed into the computer models, which helps better analyze possible snowfall amounts.

An area of low pressure will likely form over southeast Colorado on Monday, producing snow along the Front Range starting later in the day on Monday. That will likely produce the heaviest snowfall overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning. Light snow will likely stick around through most of the day on Tuesday, before gradually coming to a close on Tuesday evening.

Again, highest snow impacts look to be on Monday night and Tuesday morning, with lingering impacts lasting into Tuesday afternoon.

The good news, though, is that Wednesday should feature calmer and warmer weather along the Front Range. High pressure and mild temperatures should be in place, which would help create better travel conditions on one of the busiest travel days of the year. However, snow will be slower to clear out of the mountains, and both Monday and Tuesday could feature snowfall along Interstate 70 west of Denver. That could last into Wednesday, as well.

Looking even further out, more active weather looks likely to finish the month of November. The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) 8-14 day outlook – which extends into early December – again places Colorado as having above-average chances of cooler- and wetter-than-average weather. The overall pattern appears to favor the possibility of more snow and cold in November’s final few days, potentially trickling into December, as well.

After a two-inch burst of snow on Friday morning, Denver has officially seen 3.7 inches of snow so far this November, and 16.7 inches of snow so far this season – the season total falling well above the season-to-date average. It now appears that November could end with at least a bit of a wintry bang. And that pattern could carry over into the start of December.