Article content

As the Saskatchewan Party chooses a new leader later this month — the winner to be sworn in as Saskatchewan’s 15th premier — an interesting and often confusing divide has emerged between Sask. Party members and some commentators in the chattering classes.

The pundits’ narrative goes like this: Brad Wall defined the Sask. Party. His brand is the party’s brand. The candidate who will stand the best chance of changing the Sask. Party and ensuring its political success is the one who can shake up the party and be the most unlike Wall.

We apologize, but this video has failed to load.

tap here to see other videos from our team. Try refreshing your browser, or Gormley: Alanna Koch closest to Wall legacy Back to video

This analysis sounds like someone’s been tucking into a July 1 pot stash in advance. While the Wall effect matters, the formula for the Sask. Party’s electoral success predates him.

When non-NDP voters coalesce into one party they will beat the NDP nearly every time. To be precise, only four times in 75 years the NDP has received over 50 per cent of the votes in an election, although they’ve won 12 campaigns, generally because of vote splitting between competing non-NDP parties.