As his first term draws to a close, Snyder insists he’s still the pragmatic, numbers-focused moderate Republican he campaigned as in his first, unlikely run for office in 2010. But his critics charge the slogan—unveiled in a Super Bowl ad that propelled him through a crowded primary—has proven to be a sham. Rather than steering the state in nonpartisan fashion toward economic stability, Snyder, they charge, has proven instead to be a hardheaded ideologue whose trickle-down policies have not produced results. “He campaigned as a bean counter. He said he was going to focus on jobs,” Snyder’s Democratic opponent, Mark Schauer, told me in an interview. “Our current governor’s policies work for the wealthy, but they’re not working for most Michiganders.”

Despite such complaints, Snyder was initially widely expected to sail to a second term against Schauer, a little-known former congressman. (No Michigan governor has been denied a second term since 1962.) But Schauer and his allies have waged an aggressive campaign, attacking Snyder for cutting school funding (a charge he denies) and taxing seniors’ pensions. The result is what looks to be a tight race. Most recent polling has shown Snyder leading, but there are exceptions, like a YouGov survey earlier this month that had Schauer ahead by 2 points. Overall, Snyder leads by an average of 3.5 points—a far tighter margin than his commanding 18-point victory four years ago.

“He campaigned as a nerd, and he didn’t seem very threatening,” Susan Demas, editor and publisher of the Inside Michigan Politics newsletter, told me. Snyder’s persona isn’t polarizing like Wisconsin’s Scott Walker or Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett, and he seemed to fit with Michigan’s long tradition of moderate Republican governors such as George Romney, William Milliken, and John Engler. Instead, Demas said, “He’s governed very far to the right. A lot of the moderates, the independents, the conservative Democrats that gave him that big margin in 2010 have been scared off.”

Snyder was slow to respond to Schauer’s early advertising blitz, prompting concern among Republicans that he didn’t seem to be taking the race seriously. As recently as a few weeks ago, party elders publicly complained about his reluctance to engage; they feared Snyder was surrounded by yes-men who didn't comprehend the political threat. In late September, Republican consultant Dan Pero, a former gubernatorial chief of staff, wrote on Facebook, “I must say the Schauer campaign is running one of the most message disciplined campaigns I’ve seen .... Hope our counterattack begins soon.” Days after that message, Snyder began airing an ad featuring a teacher defending his school-funding increases, “in spite of what you’ve heard.”

Pete Hoekstra, a former Republican congressman who sought the gubernatorial nomination in 2010 and lost to Snyder, told me he’d been surprised by the closeness of the race, which he attributed to Snyder’s low-key style. “This is a guy who doesn’t go around and tout his political accomplishments all the time,” Hoekstra said. “He’s spent more time managing the state than managing his personal political success—that’s just the way Rick is.” But Hoekstra said he believed the polling trend was turning in Snyder’s favor, and he foresaw a strong victory. Another Snyder ally told me that the governor would outspend Schauer 2-to-1 in the coming weeks, an onslaught Schauer would be helpless to combat.