The growing distrust between China and the U.S. will be on full display next week as President Xi Jinpingarrives at Mar-a-Lago in Florida for meetings with President Donald Trump. The tension isn’t just a result of Mr. Xi’s policies—a fierce crackdown on dissent, militarization of the South China Sea, intensifying protectionism. Nor is it just a matter of Mr. Trump’s combative campaign rhetoric against China and his early embrace of Taiwan.

For many longtime American observers of the relationship, the worries run deeper and...