The Boston Red Sox are the top Over team in the big leagues, but will have a matchup on Tuesday against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Nola had a 4.89 ERA entering his start on June 21, but since then has been solid, giving up one home run per nine innings over his past 11 starts to go with a 2.09 ERA and opponents hitting just .189 off of him.

Nola has received good run support, nearly 5.8 runs per game, but the Phillies’ recent offensive struggles should result in a lower-scoring game if he does what he’s been doing. The Phillies are averaging 4.4 runs per game since the All-Star break, which ranks 24th in MLB.

Though Red Sox starter Brian Johnson is unlikely to give a lot of length — going past the third inning just once this season in a start — the relievers have been solid, ranking 11th in the majors with a 4.28 bullpen ERA.

The Phillies will be able to support Nola with their bullpen, which ranks 11th in ERA since the All-Star break. With the Red Sox being a public team and the totals in their games climbing to double digits consistently, this is a good chance to take an Under with a starter (Nola) who has been outstanding since mid-June.

The play: Phillies-Red Sox, Under 10¹/₂ runs.