Story highlights Jonathan Cristol: State Department critical in securing Otto Warmbier's release

But Kim Jong Un may have other motivations for releasing the American detainee

Jonathan Cristol is a fellow at the World Policy Institute and a senior fellow at the Center for Civic Engagement at Bard College. You can follow him @jonathancristol. The views expressed in this commentary are his own.

(CNN) The announcement that North Korea has released American detainee Otto Warmbier comes on the same day that former basketball star Dennis Rodman arrives for his fifth visit to see his "friend" Kim Jong Un. And while Rodman appears to not have been involved in Warmbier's release, his arrival does beg the question: Why did North Korea release Warmbier today?

Jonathan Cristol

In January 2016, Warmbier was arrested for stealing a banner from his Pyongyang hotel. Shortly after, he went on trial. According to the North Koreans, he then contracted botulism and fell into a coma. And though the North Korean government claims he has been in a coma for over a year, the State Department only learned of his condition a week ago -- at which point it began to advocate for his release.

The State Department is still investigating the North Korean version of events.

From the North Korean perspective, it may be rational for Pyongyang to take American prisoners and rational to release them under the right circumstances. And while engaging in such behavior is outrageous by any standard of decency, North Korea has little other direct leverage over the United States. Sure, it can fire on American, South Korean or Japanese forces, but if it does, it risks a major military conflict that it cannot win.

If it seizes an American who has traveled to North Korea by choice, it can attempt to extract concessions without provoking an American military strike. North Korea therefore has every incentive to release a prisoner when an arrangement is made, or risk its credibility in future negotiations.

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