With five new titles hitting multiplexes, the second weekend of January is shaping up to be quite crowded – even though none of them have much of a chance at stopping DC’s Aquaman, which continues to rule the box office well into its run. Of those five titles, STX’s drama The Upside and Sony’s A Dog’s Way Home will be competing for second, while On the Basis of Sex and If Beale Street Could Talk hope to perform well in their respective nationwide expansions following strong limited runs. Finally, Entertainment Studios will open their sci-fi drama Replicas, which will likely be a blip on the radar.

The Upside, a remake of the French film The Intouchables was one of the last titles set to be released by The Weinstein Company before the 2017 scandal which resulted in the title changing hands to STX Entertainment. Produced for somewhere between $30-35 million, The Upside is the latest attempt by STX to launch a successful adult-driven drama with some star power behind it. After several flops last summer, the fledgling studio has failed to find its footing, and seems to be banking on the credibility of its two main leads (Bryan Cranston and Kevin Hart) to sell the title, though whether that will be successful remains to be seen. With a nasty 40% Rotten Tomatoes score, however, that will be a challenge, as the success of adult dramas is often more reliant on strong critical performance than just about any other genre.

Serving as a sort of spiritual successor to A Dog’s Purpose from 2017, Sony’s A Dog’s Way Home hopes to recreate that films surprise success – over $200 million worldwide on a budget of just $22 million. Here’s where things get slightly confusing, however; the book of A Dog’s Purpose actually did have an official follow-up, called A Dog’s Journey, which is also receiving a film adaptation set to be released in May. The book version of A Dog’s Way Home was a spin-off title that wasn’t directly related to either of those. This may make things confusing for audiences, especially when they begin to see trailers for Journey in the next few months. Sony likely positioned their title earlier in order to cash in on those assuming it’s a sequel to the 2017 original, and leave the confusion to Universal to deal with in May.

The other wide release of the weekend is Replicas, from none other than Entertainment Studios, who, similar to STX, has struggled to find its footing in the wide release game. Their 2017 horror film Friend Request holds the undesirable record for worst opening for a film in over 2,500 locations, and their other titles (outside of 47 Meters Down) have failed to impress. Set to release in 2,327 locations, and carrying a budget of $30 million, it seems very unlikely that the film will be successful, especially when early reviews and reactions have not been kind.

Additionally, Annapurna’s If Beale Street Could Talk and Focus Features On the Basis of Sex will be expanding into 1,018 and 1,923 locations respectively. Annapurna has a tendency of overbooking titles like this, with notable comparisons such as The Sisters Brothers and Professor Marston and the Wonder Women as notable examples. Moonlight also went nationwide in its fifth weekend, but in about 350 fewer locations, and still only averaged around $2.2K per location. Beale Street also hasn’t seen the same level of buzz surrounding it, which may lead to an underperformance this weekend. It all depends on whether the audience Moonlight built up on home video is interested in another title from director Barry Jenkins.

Finally, On the Basis of Sex is hoping to capitalize on the story of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who was recently the subject of successful documentary RBG, which ended its run with an excellent $14 million, making it one of the most successful political documentaries to date. On the Basis has performed admirably in limited release, but an expansion this wide does seem a bit daunting for a title with seemingly limited commercial potential.

Predictions

Aquaman – $16 million The Upside – $11.2 million A Dog’s Way Home – $10 million Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – $9.5 million Mary Poppins Returns – $9 million

On the Basis of Sex – $4 million

Replicas – $3.2 million

If Beale Street Could Talk – $2.1 million