Nicola Sturgeon and SNP finance secretary Derek Mackay take to the ice at Aberdeen Christmas market yesterday

Scotland will back independence if a Conservative election win on Thursday leads to withdrawal from the European Union but support for leaving the United Kingdom will fall sharply if Brexit is stopped, a new poll suggests.

The latest Panelbase survey of 1,020 voters in Scotland for The Sunday Times has the SNP heading for significant gains this week but a solid performance by the Scottish Tories is expected to help hand power to Boris Johnson.

The poll, conducted on December 3-6, puts Nicola Sturgeon’s party on SNP 39% (-1% since last month), with the Conservatives on 29% (+1%); Labour on 21% (+1%) and the Lib Dems on 10% (-1%). The Brexit party and the Green Party both poll less than 1%.

Polling expert Professor John