The Iowa caucus is finally here, and after the votes come in tonight, it’s looking like bad news for the Democrat establishment and great news for the Trump campaign.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders in the Iowa caucus by a slim 49.9%-49.6% margin, but Sen. Sanders is the favorite to win tonight, both in the polls and among the bookies.

Ironically, for as much hype there is surrounding the Iowa caucus, Democrats shot themselves in the foot with the impeachment hearings, and greatly drowned out the message of the candidates they want to take on President Trump. In 2016, ABC, CBS, and NBC devoted 86 minutes of airtime to campaign coverage in the lead-up to the caucus. In most primaries the caucus got at least an hour of coverage.

This year? Just ten minutes according to the Tyndall Report:

It’s not like Democrats gained anything from impeachment coverage crowding out coverage of the 2020 primary candidates, because support for Trump increased throughout the proceedings (while support for impeachment failed). The Democrat establishment landed a one-two punch on themselves.

Despite the impression you may get from the pundits, the Iowa caucus is an over-hyped event with only minor predictive power. For reference, Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus in 2016. Since the beginning of the Iowa caucus in 1972, there have been eighteen winners (ten Democrats and two Republicans). Only half of those winners secured their party’s nomination, and only three were elected president.

That being said, Sanders is gaining momentum against Joe Biden overall, and could very well be the nominee. What a gift for Trump that would be.