While looming concerns over the Olympics exist right now in terms of security, risks and the completely inconceivable notion that Russia may be prohibited from sending a gymnastics team, there is some solace in trying to anticipate what the podium may look like in a few weeks time. So, as with the last by-the-numbers, I’ve taken an aggregate of scores from Gymnter.net and seen what could be.

Teams qualifying to Rio:

COUNTRY GYMNASTS WORLD/TE FINAL SCORE RANK Belgium Gaelle Mys Laura Waem Rune Hermans Nina Derwael Senna Deriks 166.997** 11 Brazil Danielle Hypolito Jade Barbosa Flavia Saraiva Lorrane Dos Santos Rebecca Andrade 172.054** 4 Canada Ellie Black Isabela Onyshko Brittany Rogers Shallon Olsen Rose Woo 167.697 8 China Fan Yilin Liu Tingting Mao Yi Shang Chunsong Wang Yan 176.164 2 France Marine Boyer Marine Brevet Loan His Oreane Lechenault Louise Vanhille 167.27** 10 Germany Elisabeth Seitz Kim Bui Sophie Scheder Tabea Alt Pauline Schafer 170.378** 6 GBR Becky Downie Ellie Downy Ruby Harrold Claudia Fragapane Amy Tinkler 172.380 3 Italy Vanessa Ferrari Carlotta Ferlito Erika Fasana Elisa Meneghini Martina Rizzelli 167.597 9 Japan Asuka Teramoto Mai Murakami Aiko Sugahari Yuki Uchiyama Sae Miyakawa 169.887 7 Netherlands Lieke Wevers Sanne Wevers Eythora Thorsdottir Celine Van Gerner Vera van Pol 162.730 12 Russia Angelina Melnikova Aliya Mustafina Maria Paseka Daria Spiridinova Seda Tutkhalyan 171.964 5 USA Simone Biles Aly Raisman Laurie Hernandez Madison Kocian Gabby Douglas 181.338 1

*Test Event Scores had the second lowest and lowest scores on each event discarded for consistent scoring evaluation.

Potential Scores Methodology: Scores are highest obtained at an international competition that was not a World Cup Challenge. If a gymnast had no international competition scores, then their domestic competition scores from 2016 were averaged to compensate for domestic score inflation.

USA Vault Bars Beam Floor Total Simone Biles 16.00 15.050 15.550 16.050 AA Aly Raisman 15.200 14.350 15.100 15.600 AA L. Hernandez 15.100 14.800 15.300 14.950 AA M. Kocian 15.366 UB G. Douglas 15.300 15.333 14.750 14.583 VT,UB 46.500 45.749 45.950 46.6 184.799

CHINA Vault Bars Beam Floor Total Fan Yilin 15.366 14.400 UB,BB Tan Jiaxin 15.2 15.133 13.561 AA Mao Yi 14.833 14.000 FX,VT S. Chunsong 14.100 15.233 14.700 14.933 AA Wang Yan 15.200 13.566 14.500 14.633 FX,VT 45.233 45.732 43.600 43.566 178.131

GBR Vault Bars Beam Floor Total B. Downie 15.500 14.330 UB,BB Ellie Downie 15.133 14.675 14.950 14.733 AA Ruby Harrold 14.800 14.766 13.600 14.200 AA C. Fragapane 14.866 13.800 15.000 VT, BB, FX Amy Tinkler 15.083 13.700 13.633 14.433 FX, VT 45.082 44.941 43.080 44.166 177.269

BRAZIL Vault Bars Beam Floor Total D. Hypolito 14.333 13.750 14.166 13.966 AA Jade Barbosa 14.966 14.450 14.233 13.891 AA Flavia Saraiva 15.050 14.400 14.950 14.400 AA L. Oliveira 15.166 14.066 13.933 14.066 VT, UB R. Andrade 14.933 14.600 13.150 AA 45.182 43.450 43.349 42.432 174.413

RUSSIA Vault Bars Beam Floor Total Melnikova 14.833 15.033 14.800 14.433 AA Mustafina 15.333 15.100 13.466 AA Maria Paseka 15.666 14.800 13.766 VT Spiridinova 15.650 13.600 UB Tutkhalyan 14.966 14.433 14.800 14.000 AA 45.465 46.016 44.700 42.199 178.38

GERMANY Vault Bars Beam Floor Total E. Seitz 14.133 15.450 13.766 13.400 AA Kim Bui 14.033 14.866 13.566 13.666 AA S. Scheder 14.166 15.100 14.433 13.500 UB Tabea Alt 14.100 14.166 14.066 13.666 AA P. Schafer 14.633 13.433 14.500 13.766 AA 42.932 45.416 42.999 41.098 172.445

JAPAN Vault Bars Beam Floor Total A. Teramoto 15.166 14.336 14.100 13.966 AA M. Murakami 15.066 13.966 14.033 14.333 AA Aiko Sugahari 14.233 12.800 UB Y. Uchiyama# 14.100 13.590 12.913 13.325 AA S. Miyakawa 15.166 14.900 VT, FX 45.398 42.535 41.046 43.199 172.178

CANADA Vault Bars Beam Floor Total Ellie Black 15.100 14.000 14.600 14.425 AA I. Onyshko 14.233 14.400 14.433 13.966 UB, BB B. Rogers 15.000 14.600 13.700 AA Shallon Olsen 14.950 12.800 13.475 14.400 AA Rose Woo 14.600 14.050 14.400 13.800 UB 45.050 43.05 43.433 42.791 174.324

ITALY Vault Bars Beam Floor Total V. Ferrari# 14.366 13.633 13.733 13.933 AA C. Ferlito 14.650 13.750 14.441 14.033 AA Erika Fasana 15.058 13.766 14.500 VT, FX E. Meneghini 14.600 14.500 14.200 AA M. Rizzelli 14.491 14.166 VT 44.308 41.682 42.674 42.733 171.397

FRANCE Vault Bars Beam Floor Total Marine Boyer 14.733 13.600 14.850 13.900 AA M. Brevet 14.241 13.650 14.366 14.133 AA Loan His 14.250 14.633 13.800 13.800 VT, UB Lechenault 13.950 14.333 12.800 13.666 AA L. Vanhille 13.966 14.266 12.966 13.600 UB, BB 43.224 43.232 43.016 41.833 171.305

BELGIUM Vault Bars Beam Floor Total Gaelle Mys 14.133 14.133 13.800 AA Laura Waem 13.800 14.200 14.000 13.400 AA R. Hermans 14.033 13.566 13.866 13.966 VT, BB N. Derwael 13.300 13.933 UB, BB Senna Deriks 14.333 UB 41.966 42.099 42.066 41.166 167.297

NETHERLANDS Vault Bars Beam Floor Total Lieke Wevers 13.900 14.400 14.508 14.200 AA S. Wevers 14.233 14.800 BB, UB E. Thorsdottir 13.766 13.633 14.233 13.508 AA Van Gerner# 13.966 13.533 13.366 13.800 AA Vera van Pol 11.200 12.550 13.000 VT, UB 41.632 42.266 43.541 41.508 168.947

So this rough analysis leaves us with the following preliminary scores:

1 USA 184.799

2 Russia 178.380

3 China 178.131

4 GBR 177.269

5 Brazil 174.413

6 Canada 174.324

7 Germany 172.445

8 Japan 172.178

9 Italy 171.397

10 France 171.305

11 Netherlands 168.947

12 Belgium 167.297

It seems to go without saying that early indications point to the USA having a comfortable lead at the top of the podium. However, a lot can happen between now and Rio, and between the TQ and TF, so don’t assume the USA will be cruising through this Olympics. For starters, there’s the untested Laurie Hernandez. She’s been on the international stage, but not at Worlds or Olympics. If you watched the Trials coverage you have all the proof you need that the pressure to deliver can derail anyone- even former AA champion.

On to what will be far more exciting is the race for silver and bronze (again, assuming the USA avoids a meltdown). Originally, when writing this analysis, Liu Tingting and her massive scores at Chinese Nationals had been factored in to the TF. Now, with Liu injured and Tan Jiaxin substituted in, China and Russia have switched places in the rankings. Part of this is due to including Tan in the FX. China is notoriously tight-lipped about their line-up, so it’s possible they have stability built in that the available scores don’t show. Wang has had difficult staying on the balance beam as of late, although both she and Mao have great difficulty on floor- which is sure to help the Chinese team overall.

Russia is barely ahead of China in this numbers analysis. Spiridinova has scored as high as a 15.650 on UB in competition since Worlds, and Seda averages a 14.0 on BB in international meets. Melnikova could post higher FX scores while Seda is averaging around a 13.1, the true cliffhanger right now is Mustafina. While I have no doubt that Mustafina will compete in TQ on all four to qualify for the AA, the question remains as to whether she will be used in TF- much like Komova in 2012. Although, the Komova decision ended up in disaster for the Russian team in 2012 so we may well see the Russian coaches decide to run her ragged in every event in both quals and finals.

Just behind the Russia/China battle are the teams from Great Britain, Brazil and Canada. If the hypothetical 7.5 points separate the USA from China in this analysis, about half that amount separates China and the next 3 teams. Great Britain has put together an incredibly strong team this year. Becky Downie’s beam score has scored up to 14.333 in international meets; Tinkler and Ellie Downie can put up vault scores in the 15s when they are on point, and at the last Worlds they capitalized on Russia’s falls to grab the bronze. Don’t count them out under any circumstances!

Brazil has a chance to edge out GBR if they can hit at their full strength during qualifications. Andrade provided a significant boost on UB and VT, but let’s remember that one competition is just that- one competition. Brazil has quite the Olympic veteran in Hypolito, and Jade Barbosa’s inclusion after the 2012 scandal is sure to quiet some fears over Olympic performances. I would say that Brazil is in with a chance at the podium as long as they can conquer the team qualifications round, which seems to be their nemesis. However, home field advantage can be powerful and I would bank on the Brazilians to be able to significantly up their scores with the support of the crowd.

Canada will look to Ellie Black, Rogers and Olsen to lead their team into the finals. While I don’t see the chances of a team medal, they could usurp Brazil or even GBR to improve on their 5th place finish in 2012.

The next “grouping” so to speak includes Germany, France, Italy, and Japan. While the Team Qualifications will be exciting for this group, unfortunately at least 2 of these teams will be left out of the Team Finals. Germany boasts the 4th highest combined bars total, thanks in no small part to veterans Kim Bui, Sophie Scheder and Elisabeth Seitz. Italy’s veterans Carlotta Ferlito and Vanessa Ferrari will lead a strong Italian team into this Olympics and I know I’m eagerly anticipating watching Meneghini and Rizzelli throw their best routines. As far as the numbers analysis, I would say that Germany and Italy have the best chance of qualifying to the Finals. France’s team could place in the top 8 if they capitalize on any mistakes made by the German or Italian team and if they can produce solid floor routines. Their UB and BB scores will keep them competitive for the last spot. The Japanese team can put up some solid numbers on vault and floor and I think that will help them stay in the mix, but as I said, Germany and Italy are loaded with difficulty and I think in the end Japan will be edged out by one of them.

Which leaves us with Belgium and the Netherlands. The loss of Axelle Klinckaert to the Belgian team is huge in terms of potential scores. While neither is truly podium competitive, the qualifications will be wonderful to watch as both are fielding full teams for the first time in over 40 years. Sanne Wevers’ turn-filled beam routine and Eythora Thorsdottir on beam and floor will be some of the best from the Dutch team.

As always, the math simply points to a “might be”. The beauty and sorrow of gymnastics is that it can be very hard to predict who will be the champion from one quad to the next, or even from one competition day to the next. Quite honestly I could see a podium where the USA, GBR and Brazil are all represented. Russia and China are not infallible, and teams who have never won a medal are hungry for their place. I agree with most of the gymternet on this point though- the battle for silver and bronze is going to be much more exciting and epic than the race for gold. I just hope, as an American and a gymnastics fan, that NBC finally gets it right and shows both a wider selection of the team’s routines and more of the sport itself. Less of the sappy fluff with soap opera music would be great. I’d even say something nice about Tim Daggett if they did.

Article: Kimberly Wooster

Photo Cover: Nadia Boyce

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