Just in time for the peak of hurricane season, Irma has now formed in the Atlantic and is moving westward as a Category 2 hurricane.

With meteorological summer coming to a close Aug. 31, we are now entering the peak of hurricane season. Add to that the fact that this is the period when a hurricane is most likely to hit New England. Of course, storms have and will hit before and after this period, but the odds peak over the next 10 days.

A hurricane hasn’t hit in more than two decades

It’s important to keep in mind that the odds of a major hurricane hitting New England are quite small. The last hurricane to reach our shores was Bob back in 1991, and the last major Category 3 storm to strike was Carol, on Sept. 1, 1954. The winds in that storm, 63 years ago, were actually stronger than those experienced in Texas when Harvey made its first landfall.

Heavy rain but not 50 inches


Aside from the wind, tropical systems can bring tremendous rainfall. The unprecedented rain and flooding on the Gulf Coast make one wonder whether those torrents could happen here. The short answer is no.

Meteorologically, even a stalled system is highly unlikely, if not close to impossible, to bring to the Boston area the rainfall we’ve seen in Texas and Louisiana. The reason: The proximity of the warm waters, like those found in the Gulf of Mexico, simply doesn’t exist here. While we can avoid talk of 4 feet of rain here, we should note that hurricanes do hit New England — even major ones.

What about Irma?

It’s very early in the forecasting game for Hurricane Irma. While this storm is certainly getting itself better organized, we don’t know for sure how strong it will become. As of Friday morning, Irma is a Category 2 hurricane. Some models ramp her up to a Category 5, the strongest; others show it being much less intense.


The next questions are: Where will this storm track in the coming week to 10 days, and could it affect the United States? Here again, the models are offering numerous solutions to the eventual placement of Irma.

How hurricanes move

Hurricanes are typically steered by pressure systems around them and, most notably, high pressure typically found in the Atlantic. Tropical systems are forced to go around these highs. The exact placement and strength of the high as well as its interaction with other weather systems to the west and east create a funnel of flow for the hurricane.

The image above is an average. In actuality, the high-pressure area changes daily. The lack of strong steering currents last week is why Harvey meandered so long around Texas.

Looking to the past

Back in 1954, Carol rode the steering currents up over Long Island then just past Worcester.

Hurricane Carol’s track Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1954

500 millibar flow average Aug. 31-Sept. 1, 1954

Irma’s track

Assuming Irma remains a hurricane, it will probably affect the islands of the Caribbean next week and then move towards the United States. The storm could continue due west and move into the Gulf of Mexico, curve up the East Coast, or make a sharp right-hand turn and head back out to sea. It’s all going to depend on how the weather systems evolve in the coming 5 to 7 days, and it will take that long to have a good idea whether this is a threat to us.

There’s little doubt there will be a lot of interest in Hurricane Irma over the next week. Her effects could be significant or just another forgotten Atlantic storm.