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Ref's Projection of National Popular Vote

Clinton +3.5%

Trump is closer in the battleground states, the more relevant polls, where he trails by 2.5%. Trump needs to gain 2.5% in those states or the poll error in Clinton's favor must be 2.5% to render the race a tossup. In Brexit, the average of polls had an error of 6%.

I try to keep all data within a one week range when close to an election as late deciders move fast. Polls that substantially diverge from the other national polls and the bellwether state polls will be weighted down. See an example. Only one poll per media organization is included. This average mixes head-to-head polls with four-way polls. Four-way polls are better because they match reality, but some head-to-head polls, like the LA Times/Daybreak (4th most accurate 2012) and UPI/CVoter (8th most accurate 2012) polls, offer reliable data. Not all head-to-head polls are useful, in fact most are not because there will be a large third-party vote this year. Often news organizations or particular shows, like the Kelly File, will report only those head-to-head numbers because they artificially inflate Hillary's lead. Perhaps because the LA Times/Daybreak and UPI/CVoter are Internet polls, this bias seems less pronounced rendering those polls worth inclusion.