Something has changed for John Boehner.

Figures in his close-knit circle of allies are starting to privately wonder whether he can survive an all-but-certain floor vote this fall to remain speaker of the House. And, for the first time, many top aides and lawmakers in the House do not believe he will run for another term as House leader in 2017.


The Boehner era might be coming to an end, they say.

“That’s a personal decision he has to make. I don’t know why he would want to, personally,” said Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.), when asked whether Boehner would run again. "But I do think that he feels, in his heart of hearts, he feels like he’s doing what’s best for this country — regardless of what the political consequences are. That says something about somebody."

As Congress returns Tuesday for what could be one of the most challenging stretches of his nearly five years as speaker, POLITICO interviewed more than a dozen lawmakers and aides in direct contact with Boehner. Uniformly they sympathized with his plight: Caught between an intractable right flank and a Democratic president, they say he's managed to get a remarkable amount done. But they also questioned Boehner's viability in the near- and long-term — most of them spoke privately to protect their relationship with him — as the 65-year-old speaker approaches a quarter-century of service in the House.

Boehner spent most of the summer recess crisscrossing the country on behalf of Republican lawmakers, appearing at 50 political events in more than a dozen states. But the speaker and his aides also spent time over the August break quietly touching base with scores of GOP colleagues across the spectrum — which could serve to shore up his standing ahead of a potential coup attempt by conservatives.

Talk of Boehner's possible demise is as old as his speakership, of course. The mild-tempered Ohio Republican has experienced wild swings in his political fortunes, going from hero to Republican-in-name-only in a matter of days. Earlier this year, roughly two dozen Republican lawmakers voted against his bid for a third term as speaker. Each time, Boehner has survived and returned to health.

But consider what he faces this fall: a quixotic but determined fight to defund Planned Parenthood, a potential government shutdown, a deadline to raise the federal debt ceiling or risk default, and a contentious showdown over highway spending. Boehner's aides say they expect a vote to oust him, formally known as a motion to vacate the chair.

Boehner allies privately acknowledge the daunting challenge. "Who knows?" one ally said when asked if Boehner could beat back a coup attempt. "I don't know. I don’t know how you change this dynamic."

Publicly, Boehner is projecting confidence and going about his business. His top advisers say that he sees the effort to push him out as a stunt unworthy of his attention. When his allies urged him to allow a vote on the motion to vacate in July — defeating it would be a show of strength, they argued — he rebuffed their advice. If it comes up again, his top aides say they are sure leadership would beat back the effort on the floor.

Set aside the constant threat of rebellion, Boehner insiders argue, and you have one of the most productive sessions of Congress in a long time. The speaker negotiated a permanent change to how doctors are reimbursed under Medicare, which they say will save more than $200 billion without raising taxes. He shepherded through the House the biggest free trade agreement in decades. And, Boehner's friends point out, the Select Committee on Benghazi that he created exposed Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal email server — a controversy that's dogged the Democratic front-runner for months and shows no signs of going away in 2016.

Critics are too quick to gloss over just how challenging an environment Boehner has navigated, the speaker's allies maintain.

“I don’t think any other speaker could’ve gotten anything more out of this White House," said House GOP chief deputy whip Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.).

“Look at what we’ve been able to do in the time we’ve been in the majority, with a Democratic president who has had a backstop of a U.S. Senate for the most part controlled by Harry Reid,” added Rep. Pat Tiberi, a close ally of Boehner, explaining the speaker's message to the GOP rank and file. “Despite that challenge, we’ve cut discretionary [spending]. We had a significant mandatory spending program reformed in the 'doc fix.' That’s pretty significant.”

But those accomplishments have done nothing to placate the conservative wing. And senior GOP leadership aides are taking seriously the latest threat to toss Boehner from the top job. Boehner’s chief of staff, Mike Sommers, met this summer with a top aide to North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), who drafted the resolution to overthrow the speaker and indicated at a town hall meeting late last month that he's not backing down.

Kevin Smith, Boehner’s communications director, said the “speaker’s mission has not changed."

“And that’s to build a smaller, less costly, and more accountable government,” Smith said. “He’s proud of what our team has accomplished this year to strengthen the economy, enact entitlement reform, and stop human traffickers. And there is plenty left to accomplish.”

Though most Boehner allies believe he will be the one leading the charge over the next 15 months, his political future is in others’ hands more than ever before.

Top lawmakers and aides in leadership expect Meadows or another Boehner antagonist to try and force a vote before the end of the year on whether to keep Boehner as speaker.

Boehner is nearly certain to lose the support of the 25 lawmakers who voted against him last time, plus a few more who've grown frustrated with him. But Democrats would also get a say, and should they vote to keep Boehner as speaker — opposing him would invite chaos, and it's anyone's guess who they'd have to deal with as his replacement — Boehner would likely retain the gavel until January 2017, unless he decided to call it quits sooner. Meadows did not force a vote in July, but GOP leadership assumes someone will this fall.

The first pressure point is coming soon. Government funding runs dry at the end of September, and conservatives are threatening to oppose any budget bill that continues to fund Planned Parenthood. That is the leading priority of the House Freedom Caucus, the group of 30 or so conservatives that tries to drag leadership to the right.

GOP leaders privately call the demand to quash Planned Parenthood funding a pipe dream, since President Barack Obama would never go along. Even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who like Boehner is intent on avoiding a shutdown, said defunding the organization would have to wait until there’s a new president.

But House leadership, cognizant of the potential political fallout for the speaker, is split over how to handle the situation.

Some aides say Boehner should offer a separate bill to deny the family planning organization money, rather than try to do so through the overall budget. That would allow Republicans to have their say without wasting precious time on a futile effort that would tempt a shutdown, they argue.

But others say Boehner, as a show of good faith to conservatives, should at least wage the fight. They want him to propose a broader spending bill without money for Planned Parenthood, watch it stall in the Senate as it probably would — then go to Plan B.

Either way, though, Planned Parenthood is almost sure to get its money — and Boehner will be in the cross hairs.

”I know John Boehner as good as anybody,” Tiberi said. “The Planned Parenthood videos disgust him. I know that. If there’s anyone in this world who would want to defund Planned Parenthood, it’s John Boehner. But the reality is, as I’ve said over and over again, how do you do that with a president who doesn’t agree with you?”

Tiberi added, “How would a new speaker change the fact that we don’t have the votes?”

Some Boehner insiders argue privately that the speaker should announce that this will be his last term as leader, as a way to engender some goodwill and head off any imminent move against him. Others counter that would immediately make Boehner a lame duck and harm his No. 2 and potential successor, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, because agitators would have time to organize against the California Republican.

“Look, no question they’re looking at a challenging fall,” said David Schnittger, a top aide to Boehner for 21 years who now works at Squire Patton Boggs. “By the same token, these guys aren’t strangers to challenging situations. What lies ahead looks challenging, but it also looks kind of familiar. Boehner’s in the second half of his fifth year as speaker. Having been there for four of those five years, it seemed like every few months there was a new ‘test.’”

