It wouldn’t take much for the trade war to precipitate a recession. If there is any further slowing in growth, unemployment will rise. This is the fodder for recession. That’s because U.S. consumers, who to date have been largely financially untouched and oblivious to the trade war, will begin to feel its effects. This will dim consumers’ confidence and their spending. Already skittish businesses, which have been on the front line of the trade war, will pull back even more on their investment and hiring and may even start laying off workers. Consumers will see this and become more nervous and cautious. The vicious cycle that characterizes a recession will take hold.