House Speaker Paul Ryan's retirement sparks debate about successor, and party's future

David Jackson, Herb Jackson and Deirdre Shesgreen | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption Paul Ryan won't seek re-election, here's who could replace him House Speaker Paul Ryan has announced he will not run for re-election, which means Republicans will have to fill that void in order to keep their majority.

WASHINGTON — House Speaker Paul Ryan said Wednesday he would not seek re-election, sparking debate not only about his potential successor but also whether his retirement was a bad omen for Republican chances to keep control of the House in November.

The 48-year-old Ryan, now in his 20th year in the House, had philosophical differences with President Trump on such issues as free trade and deficits, but he credited Trump with giving the GOP unified government and the chance to deliver long-promised changes.

He said he accomplished "a heckuva lot" since becoming speaker in October 2015, but decided he wanted to spend more than just weekends with his children.

“This is a job that does not last forever,” he told reporters after delivering the surprising news to his Republican colleagues in a closed-door meeting. “You realize that you hold the office for just a small part of our history, so you better make the most of it.”

Democrats need to have a net gain of 23 House seats to take back the majority they lost in 2010. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan handicapper, rates 29 Republican-held seats as either toss-ups or leaning or likely Democratic, while just three Democrat-held seats are tossups or lean or likely Republican.

Chris Christie, the former Republican governor of New Jersey, said on ABC News that Ryan’s decision was a sign he didn’t think he would be speaker after the election.

"If you're a betting person, you're betting on the Democrats for the House in the fall," Christie said.

Ryan was asked on Fox News whether he was "abandoning his troops."

“No, not at all,” he replied, noting he would continue his record pace of fundraising, which saw him raise $11 million from January through March. Since 2017, he transferred $40 million from his campaign account to the political fund that supports GOP candidates around the country.

“I don’t think anybody’s election is going to hinge on whether Paul Ryan is speaker of the House. I think we’re going to have a strong record to run on,” he said.

That record includes an overhaul of the tax code that Trump signed in December, and a budget agreement to steeply increase military spending that Trump signed in March.

But the tax changes came after Ryan abandoned his goal of offsetting tax cuts with the elimination of loopholes and deductions so there was no increase in the deficit. He also wanted a tax code so simple most returns could be filed on a postcard.

The 2012 candidate for vice president on nominee Mitt Romney’s ticket, Ryan criticized Trump during the 2016 election over his racially tinged comments and his crude remarks about women.

On Wednesday, Ryan denied discomfort with the direction that Trump was taking the Republican Party was a factor in his decision to retire.

"Not at all," Ryan said. "I’m grateful to the president for giving us this opportunity to do big things."

Trump tweeted out praise on Wednesday: "Speaker Paul Ryan is a truly good man, and while he will not be seeking re-election, he will leave a legacy of achievement that nobody can question. We are with you Paul!"

Speaker Paul Ryan is a truly good man, and while he will not be seeking re-election, he will leave a legacy of achievement that nobody can question. We are with you Paul! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2018

Romney praised Ryan on Twitter for stepping into the speakership at a critical time.

"He unified the House, passed scores of bills, and led with integrity, honor and dignity," Romney wrote. "The country will miss Speaker Ryan."

Ryan said one of his regrets was that Congress had not revamped entitlement programs. He was the architect of a plan that would have converted Medicare, for example, to a program where the government subsidized coverage by private insurers.

“More work needs to be done, and it really is entitlements,” Ryan said. “That's where the work needs to be done, and I'm going to keep fighting for that.”

Ryan's announcement, although rumored for months, still caught many Republicans by surprise Wednesday. But GOP lawmakers said they understood his decision.

"He is answering a higher calling, and that is to his family," said Rep. Mark Walker, R-N.C.

Democrats hailed Ryan's retirement as a sign that he knows GOP will take big losses.

“Stay tuned for more retirements as Republicans increasingly realize that their midterm prospects are doomed," said Tyler Law, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Ryan will stay speaker throughout the rest of the year, but his announcement is likely to set off a battle for leadership in the House that will not be decided until after the November elections. Possible replacements include Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., now Ryan's second-in-command, and Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., now the third-ranking House member.

Scalise downplayed speculation in an appearance on Fox News before Ryan's announcement.

"A lot of people are saying, ‘What are they going to run for next year,’ but it really becomes irrelevant if [Democrat] Nancy Pelosi is Speaker of the House," Scalise said. "And clearly that’s what she’s intending on doing and they’re raising a lot of money on their side. We need to make sure we hold the House."

Ryan was a fiscal conservative, but his efforts to be a more pragmatic leader led to conflicts with the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, whose members griped that Ryan was too quick to compromise with Democrats.

Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows, R-N.C., said it was not clear if Ryan would be able to serve out the remainder of the year as leader while his top deputies were angling to succeed him.

“I think the next few weeks will determine whether that happens or not," Meadows said. "Everyone will start jockeying for position immediately. They won’t wait for nine months.”

Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Pa., said it was too early to talk about who would replace Ryan.

“The bigger issue right now is just trying to maintain the majority,” said Dent, who is retiring this year. He said Republicans face a “toxic” environment, but the battle would be a referendum on Trump rather than Ryan’s leadership.

Contributing: Eliza Collins, Marilyn Icsman

The list: Here are the members of Congress retiring at the end of 2018

Post-election 2016: Speaker Paul Ryan says Trump saved GOP majority

Wisconsin voters: Constituents more polarized over Ryan, reflecting Trump effect

Key events: Paul Ryan timeline: Wisconsin to Washington