Clay Guida is in a bit of a hole. In his last five fights, Guida has lost three, and won two in markedly unconvincing fashion. He's just thirty-two years old, but with forty-four fights under his belt, and having taken his fair share of punches to the dome, Guida is at a crossroads in his career.

Guida's most recent performance was a crushing knockout defeat at the hands of featherweight young gun, Chad Mendes. The bout was lopsided and demonstrated amply that we are living in different times to the days of Guida's prime. Fighters entering the UFC today have access to better opportunities, facilities and a better all around grasp of the game than did the fighters of even five or six years ago. The level of technical proficiency and athletic potential in fighters keeps going up, but the old dogs keep hanging around.

One need only contrast the striking style which Diego Sanchez used to fluster Guida, with the polish that Mendes showed to understand how far the sport has evolved.

Diego Sanchez versus Clay Guida

This fight had many claiming that Sanchez showed improved striking. What Sanchez really showed was his usual running in with alternate punches, punctuated by left high kicks. He tried it against B.J. Penn in his next bout (who was light years ahead of the division at the time in boxing ability) and hit nothing but air while running on to punches.

What happens when you charge in against a fighter who can move his head.

Charging versus Ferrying

The great Japanese swordsman (and tremendous influence on all martial arts) Miyamoto Musashi described the purpose of footwork for fighting as “ferrying across” the ground to where you need to be. Nothing fancy going on, no jumping, but getting you there safely and remaining on balance.

What Guida does is called charging.

Here's a textbook charge gone wrong from Forrest Griffin vs Anderson Silva:

Notice that Griffin's forward momentum provides nearly all of the force for the collision. It is not Silva's punching power, but Griffin's weight, which causes the knockout.

To see a boxer who was always moving forward but always ready to deal with counters, check out Jose 'Mantequilla' Napoles.

The difference between the two is control of one's weight.

Chad Mendes hits harder than Diego Sanchez, and is a better wrestler than Sanchez, yet his handling of Guida was surprisingly restrained and technical. He didn't walk Guida down or try to bum rush him, he drew Guida out and countered. He highlighted the sloppiness of Guida's footwork, his tendency to lead with his face, and his difficulty closing the distance with strikes.

Notice here, Mendes allows each of Guida's strikes to fall short until he decides he wants to engage, and because of Guida's aggression, Guida almost trips over the shot as he comes in.

To say that Guida hasn't improved himself would be grossly unfair. Against Sanchez he did nothing but eat punches and throw back. Whereas against other hard hitting but technically limited fighters like Takanori Gomi and Gray Maynard he was able to stay out of harms way, for the most part, while scoring points with inside low kicks and jabs.

Where against Gomi—who alternates between knowing how to box and then forgetting it all and swinging—this was a winning strategy, but against Gray Maynard it cost Guida a great many fans.

It is worth noting that Maynard lacked the ring cutting ability to punish Guida, and Anthony Pettis' entire game is ring cutting. He put Guida on the fence and attempted some of his favorite power kicks and knees in the moments that the fight was on the feet. Here's a fake to jumping back kick as Guida circles into it.

Clay Guida's fight with Chad Mendes really showed what a young, athletic fighter with natural punching power can do when taught to move his feet right, versus a fighter who seems too set in his ways too learn. Guida's charges repeatedly fell short or were side stepped by Mendes.

When you see a fighter charge past like this (Dan Henderson does it a lot too) you know that they weren't in control of their weight. Imagine if they had met a counter punch while moving in (as Henderson did against Vitor Belfort and Anderson Silva).

Mendes' distancing was perfect, and rather than chase after Guida he allowed Guida's strikes to fall short and let the frustration set in. At the start of round 3 Guida ran in with his head well forward of his hips and tried to get up in Mendes' grill. As he stuck his jab out, hoping to move Mendes back, Mendes parried and fired his right hand over the top as Guida stepped up for his inside low kick.

With your head in front of your hips and your chin out, you are in no position to take a shot, never mind the fact that Guida was basically on one leg. Guida hit the deck and from there it was all Mendes until the stoppage.

Guida breaks two cardinal rules: exposing his jawline and chasing a puncher.

Winning Fights and Losing Fans

Clay Guida's biggest problem isn't losing fights though. Many say that Clay Guida is only an exciting fighter to watch when he's taking a pasting. It's true that when he is hurt Guida has a tendency to rise to the occasion.

What is costing Guida the goodwill, which his many exciting fights have built, is his top game. Again, as with the striking aspect of Guida's game, a lot of it is about movement for movement's sake. You can't get through a Clay Guida match without Mike Goldberg talking about the shoulder strikes. Now it is possible to really hurt someone with shoulder bumps, Nick Diaz bloodied Takanori Gomi up with shoulder strikes to the face. It's a large, ungloved collection of bones after all, but Guida seems to use them to avoid being broken for stalling.

Many of Guida's fights, however, are fought extensively from inside his opponent's guard, fighting against submission attempts and accomplishing little. Guida will hold a head and arm grip in guard (generally not useful except for crushing and blocking submissions as Royler Gracie did to Eddie Bravo in their first match) and make little effort to pass or posture up and strike.

Guida isn't a big hitter at the best of times, but the fact that he doesn't even try to strike with power from a position where his opponent can barely strike back is frustrating.

But Clay Guida can't control the decision victories he is given. Against Hatsu Hioki and Anthony Pettis, Guida was struggling to fight out of submissions constantly and was never really putting his opponent in danger. Yet because he was on top he won those decisions.

It is unfortunate that in this day and age, a crowd will erupt when B.J. Penn recovers guard, or Eddie Bravo gets his lockdown from half guard, but a professional judge—someone who is paid to know about the sport—cannot recognize that top position does not automatically mean a fighter is winning a grappling exchange.

On April 11th Clay Guida meets Japanese veteran, Tatsuya Kawajiri. Kawajiri, a hard hitting wrestler who lacks polish. Guida's active movement and strong wrestling could win him the fight, but whether folks will enjoy it is the real question.

Check out these related stories:

Slack's Greatest Rivalries: Randy Couture vs. Chuck Liddell

Jack Slack: Daniel Cormier Does Wrestling Right