Exclusive: treasurer is just in front of Greens’ star candidate Julian Burnside 52% to 48% on a two-party preferred basis

A new poll in the Victorian seat of Kooyong puts the Liberals ahead, but the Greens within striking distance of taking the blue-ribbon seat from the treasurer and deputy Liberal leader, Josh Frydenberg.

A poll of 1,741 respondents taken for the Greens by Environmental Research+Counsel this month has Frydenberg on a primary vote of 41%, the Greens candidate, Julian Burnside, on 21%, the Labor candidate, Jana Stewart, on 16%, and the climate-focused independent, Oliver Yates, on 9% – with 5% of respondents saying they will vote for another candidate and 8% unsure how they will vote on Saturday.

The poll puts Frydenberg ahead of Burnside on a two-candidate preferred measure of 52% to 48%. While single-seat surveys can be unreliable, the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, said voters in Kooyong were now in the box seat.

“Voters in Kooyong have never been in a stronger position to send a message to the climate deniers inside the Coalition that they want strong action on climate change by voting for Julian Burnside,” Di Natale said in a statement.

Kooyong: climate change shakes up the election in Liberal Melbourne Read more

“Based on the numbers, this is a contest between the Greens’ Julian Burnside and the Liberals. If you want to send a message to the Liberals that you want action on climate change, then vote for Julian Burnside to make it absolutely clear to the dinosaurs on the far-right of the Liberal party that our economy must transition away from coal to renewables.”

The poll finds that 80% of Labor voters would choose Burnside over Frydenberg if they were the remaining candidates in a two-candidate preferred vote in the seat, and 71% of Yates voters would do the same. It finds that 65% of Kooyong voters currently not voting Greens say climate change is an important or very important issue, while 28% of the sample reported climate change as a low priority.

While Victorian Liberals insist Frydenberg will hold Kooyong, the treasurer has been preoccupied with defending his seat for much of the 2019 contest given he faces a challenge from both a high-profile Green and Yates, a former Liberal, who is campaigning against the deputy Liberal leader on climate change.

The campaign tempo will accelerate on Monday as the 2019 contest enters its final week, with the leaders making frantic dashes across the country to court undecided voters and sandbag seats at risk.

Scott Morrison, who launched the Liberal campaign on Sunday in Melbourne, will begin Monday on the hustings, selling the first home owner deposit scheme for couples earning less than $200,000 and singles earning less than $125,000 he unveiled at the set-piece in Melbourne.

The Liberals have their eyes on marginal seats in the state’s north.

Liberal campaign launch: Morrison makes election pitch with first-home scheme Read more

Labor matched the Liberals’ housing scheme – modelled on a New Zealand policy allowing borrowers to top up a 5% house deposit to 20% of a house’s value with a guarantee from the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation – within hours of Morrison unveiling it.

On Monday, Labor will unveil a new campaign targeting the Coalition’s unpopular 2014 budget five years after Tony Abbott handed it down. The campaign will include new printed materials, an advertisement and social media communications.

In a statement, the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, said: “Australia has never recovered from the Liberals’ 2014 budget”. He said voters had not forgotten the “broken promises and the destruction that budget inflicted on services”.

“The day before the 2013 election, the Liberals promised no cuts to education, no cuts to health, no change to pensions, no change to the GST and no cuts to the ABC or SBS,” Shorten said. “Then the Liberals smashed that promise by making unfair cuts to working and middle class Australians.”