FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler today is proposing to raise the definition of broadband from 4Mbps downstream and 1Mbps upstream to 25Mbps down and 3Mbps up.

As part of the Annual Broadband Progress Report mandated by Congress, the Federal Communications Commission has to determine whether broadband “is being deployed to all Americans in a reasonable and timely fashion.” The FCC’s latest report, circulated by Wheeler in draft form to fellow commissioners, “finds that broadband is not being deployed to all Americans in a reasonable and timely fashion, especially in rural areas, on Tribal lands, and in US Territories,” according to a fact sheet the FCC provided to Ars.

The FCC also gets to define what speeds qualify as broadband, or “advanced telecommunications capability,” as it’s called in policy documents. The FCC last updated that definition in 2010, raising it from 200Kbps to the current 4/1 standard. The Telecommunications Act of 1996 said that advanced telecommunications capability must “enable users to originate and receive high-quality voice, data, graphics, and video telecommunications using any technology.” Wheeler’s proposed annual report says the 4/1 definition adopted in 2010 “is inadequate for evaluating whether broadband capable of supporting today’s high-quality voice, data, graphics, and video is being deployed to all Americans in a timely way.” (Despite the annual requirement, this would be the first such report since 2012.)

Wheeler previously considered raising the standard to 10Mbps downstream, but left the door open for a definition of 25Mbps. In a related proceeding, the FCC ruled last month that ISPs receiving Universal Service funds to build rural broadband networks must provide at least 10Mbps downstream and 1Mbps upstream. AT&T and Verizon had objected to the 10Mbps requirement, claiming that 4Mbps is good enough for Americans.

The proposed 25/3 definition of broadband doesn’t actually require ISPs to adopt that speed. But using the 25/3 definition for broadband will affect how the FCC reports on whether ISPs are offering Americans service that’s fast enough. Despite the 25/3 standard not being a requirement for government-funded projects, about four dozen rural broadband experiments funded by the FCC will offer at least 25/3, a senior FCC official told Ars.

Evidence that rural Americans are underserved

Wheeler has argued that rural areas are being left behind urban ones, creating a digital divide. Even using the current standard of 4/1, only 1 percent of rural Americans have gained access to broadband since 2011, according to the FCC official who spoke to Ars. To further support its case that broadband isn’t being deployed fast enough, the FCC fact sheet offered these bullet points:

53 percent of rural Americans (22 million) lack access to 25Mbps/3Mbps.

55 million American (17 percent) lack access to 25Mbps/3Mbps service.

Rural Americans demand the service at the same rate as their urban counterparts—where 25Mbps/3Mbps is available in rural areas, 28 percent have adopted it (urban = 30 percent).￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼

Rural America continues to be underserved at all speeds: 20 percent lack access even to service at 4Mbps/1Mbps, down only 1 percent from 2011, and 31 percent lack access to 10/1, down only 4 percent from 2011.

63 percent of Americans living on Tribal Lands lack access to 25/3 broadband.

In contrast, only 8 percent of urban Americans lack access to 25/3 broadband.

Overall, the broadband availability gap closed by only 3 percent last year.

Approximately 35 percent of schools lack access to fiber, and thus likely lack access to broadband at the Commission’s shorter term benchmark (adopted in its July 2014 E-rate Modernization Order) of 100Mbps per 1000 users, and even fewer have access at the long-term goal of 1Gbps per 1000 users.

The numbers are based on access to fixed networks, meaning traditional home Internet service rather than mobile broadband plans that let smartphones and tablets access cellular networks. Fixed access in the report does include terrestrial wireless Internet service providers, but not satellite. The FCC official explained that the commission lacks good data on satellite, and the draft report expresses concerns about satellite latency. In his public statements, Wheeler has argued that cable and fiber are the only true fixed broadband contenders today and that mobile broadband is not a full substitute for home Internet service because of its pricing and low data caps.

The draft report does not make any conclusions about why Americans are being denied advanced telecommunications capabilities, but it does seek public comments on what the FCC should do to accelerate deployment. The results of those comments could lead to new rulemaking proceedings or inform existing ones, the FCC official said.

The full draft report was not made public, as is standard for such reports while they’re being circulated internally at the FCC. There is no date set for a vote, but the commission could vote on it any time it likes.