Metro officials say fare evasion is a big problem, and have pushed back hard against a recent DC move to decriminalize fare evasion. But a new study from the DC Policy Center says there’s little or no evidence about how much fare evasion there is. That’s leading many to ask what basis the agency really has for claiming it’s such a problem.

In November, the agency sent out a customer survey which asked about fare evasion. An early question asked, “were you aware that WMATA lost approximately $40 million in revenue this year from fare evasion ($29 million from Metrobuses and $11 million from Metrorail?”

The survey went on to give a number of statements, most of which cast fare evasion as being a problem, like “If I regularly see [fare evasion] I would feel justified in doing the same,” or “Weak enforcement … leads to more crime.” Some were more neutral, like “Fare evasion is no worse an offense than not paying a parking meter.” In all cases, it asked people to react to them before citing the $40 million stat and again afterward, “now that you’re aware of the impact of fare evasion.”

The survey also suggested people weigh some policy responses to fare evasion, including increasing fares or having jurisdictions pay more. If each jurisdiction paid its share, the survey said, DC would pay $22 million, Maryland $16 million, and Virginia only $2 million. Remember this bit, because it’s relevant later.

The stated assumptions underlying the entire survey were that fare evasion is costing Metro revenue and that some jurisdictions have much more of it than others. And it asked a lot of questions about DC’s decriminalization, such as asking riders if they knew the penalty in DC and what they thought it ought to be. (It’s a $50 ticket, which police are still able to write, but they can’t arrest riders. It had already been only a ticket in Virginia, and an arrestable offense in Maryland.)

Is any of that right?

But the DC Policy Center’s report casts doubt on any fare evasion calculations from Metro. The report makes several key points, including these:

Rail fare evasion isn’t based on any data from Metro. The Policy Center says, surprisingly to most (including me), that Metro isn’t calculating the rate of fare evasion on rail at all. Instead, it simply assumes “an industry average of the percentage of fare evasion on similar transit properties.” In other words, if other cities have about 5% fare evasion, Metro says it does as well.

A July 2019 board presentation says Metro plans to pilot some electronic sensors that count people entering rail stations, which it can then compare against payments, which were slated for installation between January and June 2020.

Bus fare evasion has data, but it may not be accurate. A bus driver presses a button to count a rider who’s not paying a fare. There are also some automated counters on some buses. However, the report says there are several reasons passengers could be counted as evading. Actually riding without paying is one, but others include DC students who can ride for free under the Kids Ride Free program who don’t tap their cards, problems with fareboxes, or passengers getting out the rear door and then back on when the bus is very crowded.

The report also said that a 2017 study found that the places automated counters see unpaid boardings (mostly in downtown DC, the Mall, and near GW) are different from the places bus drivers most often press the evasion button (east of the Anacostia River).

WMATA has reported the key press numbers rising from year to year, but the report posits that it’s also possible this is increasing as the agency trains more bus drivers to use that button.

Many “evaders” may be DC kids who get free rides. Kids Ride Free, in particular, has faced some challenges, including problems distributing cards at the start of this year. At one point, students only had to flash their card, which has now been changed to being supposed to tap a card. All of these and other hurdles may mean some students who are supposed to be able to ride free either aren’t tapping their card or don’t properly have a card; whether that’s technically fare evasion is perhaps debatable.

Northern Virginia officials discussed offering a version of Kids Ride Free in October 2019. At that time, WMATA board member Christian Dorsey of Arlington “stated that rail fare evaders are largely connected to the District of Columbia Public Schools (DCPS), who are already eligible for free bus and rail service,” according to the minutes.

Enforcement targets black people, especially youth. 91% of riders cited for fare evasion were black and 46% were people under 25, according to the report, and that may be because the most intense enforcement on rail happens at stations such as Anacostia and Gallery Place. However, the report points out other Metro analyses which mention Tenleytown as well as Anacostia as stations with high observed rates of evasion.

DC Councilmember Charles Allen, the sponsor of the fare decriminalization, blasted WMATA over the findings.

If WMATA wants kids to swipe a card, let’s figure it out. But stop demonizing students of color (let’s be honest) for fare evasion when it’s already paid for. DC hadn’t given 15,000 students their cards by Oct 31. That’s since been fixed, but what did we want those kids to do? — Charles Allen (@charlesallen) February 20, 2020

What does this mean?

It’s worth noting that none of this means fare evasion isn’t happening. The rail numbers might be guesses based on other cities, but it’s possible the level resembles other cities’ — and also very possible it doesn’t. While higher rates of button presses could be from operator training, fare evasion could also be rising. Or maybe not.

Federal allocations of funding do depend on ridership, said Steve Strauss, former Special Advisor on WMATA for the District Department of Transportation. He pointed to official rules from the Federal Transit Administration which say funding to transit systems in larger metro areas “is based on a combination of bus revenue vehicle miles, bus passenger miles, fixed guideway revenue vehicle miles, and fixed guideway route miles as well as population and population density.” Lower ridership could affect the “bus passenger miles” element, though it’s just one of many, he said.

The findings do put the WMATA survey, which many people already had criticized for its tone, in a further skeptical light. It certainly seemed to be subtly (or not so subtly) encouraging riders to say individual jurisdictions should pay more, with DC paying the most. But if the Policy Center report is correct, there’s no good basis for apportioning costs, or even believing the top-line $40 million number which could include a lot of Kids Ride Free trips DC actually already paid for.

When voting for decriminalization, DC councilmember Robert White (at-large) said, “I’m sad that’s Metro’s losing money, but I’m more sad about what’s happening to black people.” As it turns out, it might be neither, or at least losing much less money than stated.

The Policy Center concludes that “increased farebox collection does not need to be the prevailing policy goal, and increased enforcement does not need to be the main response—particularly if that enforcement would continue to be targeted predominately at DC’s young Black residents, as it has in the past.”