Gov. Christie faces challenges in Senate vacancy

Catalina Camia | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON – Sen. Frank Lautenberg's death on Monday creates both peril and opportunity for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

The Republican governor by state law gets to appoint the Democratic senator's replacement and call a special election for a successor to serve until Lautenberg's term ends in January 2015.

The question of when that special election will be held, however, is the subject of much debate. There are contradictory clauses in the New Jersey statute dealing with vacancies. One would put the special election on Nov. 5, the same day Christie is on the ballot as he seeks a second term as governor. The other is that the special election can't be held until November 2014.

Political experts in New Jersey say Christie could appoint a close GOP ally to take the place of Lautenberg and give his appointee a running start for the special election. Or Christie could appoint a caretaker or even a Democrat to show bipartisanship. The Senate vacancy comes as Christie is highly touted as a potential Republican candidate for president in 2016.

Christie "basically has to make a bet: Do you try to build national appeal as an independent and someone who can go beyond red-blue divisions or do you assure national Republicans that you understand how the game is played and that you'll be loyal to the party in the end," said Julian Zelizer, a history and public affairs professor at the Woodrow Wilson School of International and Public Affairs at Princeton University.

The governor gave no clue Monday as he eulogized Lautenberg, his occasional nemesis, as a "fighter"and an "honest and dedicated public servant."

Lautenberg, 89, died of complications from viral pneumonia on Monday. He was the last World War II veteran serving in the U.S. Senate and the oldest member of the institution.

One political factor: Newark Mayor Cory Booker, a Democrat and Christie friend, already announced his intention to run for the Senate in 2014, well before Lautenberg had declared he would retire at the end of his fifth term. Booker consistently has led New Jersey polls for the Democratic Senate nomination.

If the special election were held this November and Booker were the Democratic nominee, his presence on the ballot could boost turnout and help state Sen. Barbara Buono, who is running for governor. Christie currently leads Buono by an average of 32 percentage points in recent statewide polling, according to RealClearPolitics.

"The No. 1 thing that Gov. Christie hopes for is he racks up an enormous victory in November," said Matthew Hale, an associate professor in political science and public affairs at Seton Hall University. "Adding the Senate race to the ballot in November might change that dynamic. He has to think about that."

New Jersey has run blue in presidential elections and political handicappers such as the Cook Political Report have rated the 2014 Senate race as "likely Democrat."

A Republican has not won an election to the U.S. Senate in New Jersey since 1972, when Clifford Case won his final term. Case went on to lose a GOP primary in 1978.

Former New Jersey governor Tom Kean; his son, Tom Kean Jr., the state Senate minority leader in Trenton; Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno; and state Sen. Joe Kyrillos have been mentioned in news reports as Republicans whom Christie could appoint to the Senate.

Booker did not mention his Senate race or the vacancy in his statement praising Lautenberg, calling the senator a "true champion" and "model of service."

Ruth Mandel, director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University, stressed the implications of Christie's Senate appointment and the timing of the special election go beyond New Jersey. Democrats currently have a 55-45 voting edge in the Senate and Republicans need a net gain of six seats in 2014 to gain power.

"There are lots of questions," said Mandel, also founder of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers. "This could give the governor an opportunity to appoint a woman, at least in the interim. That would open a base of voters and be a sign of moving forward on shared leadership between men and women."

Former governor Kean declined to discuss the politics of the Senate vacancy and would only say he does not envy the choice facing Christie, who has occasionally turned to him for counsel.

"I had to appoint a senator. It's a tough job," Kean Sr. said. "You make one friend and 30 enemies."

Follow @ccamia on Twitter.