No country has ever withdrawn from the EU, but the UK could be about to make the leap. Polls, though inherently flawed as the general election showed, have swung from one extreme to the other as the electorate tries to come to terms with the biggest political decision in a generation.

But what's the bigger picture? Understanding the UK's place in the EU is perhaps best understood from the outside. With that in mind WIRED travelled to Germany to talk to leaders in science, technology and business and get their view on the role of the EU and the importance, or irrelevance, of the UK.

1973: UK joins the European Economic Community (EEC) under Tory prime minister Edward Heath


Germany, the EU's biggest economy and perhaps its most vocal supporter, is watching the UK's dilemma with interest. Where the UK leads in technology, Germany isn't far behind. Berlin's startup scene is gaining on London fast and its established engineering firms are working towards "Industry 4.0", an ambitious plan to develop the smart factories of the future.

In their attitudes towards the EU the two nations couldn't be more different. Angela Merkel would apparently sooner see the UK leave the EU than sacrifice free movement, but the German chancellor is desperate for the UK to stay. Last week she pledged to be a "constructive partner" in the UK's desire to get EU reforms -- but argued it was "clear-cut" that the UK shouldn't secede.

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Regardless of your view on the impending referendum, uncertainty around the UK's future is already causing damage and confusion. Voices on all sides are calling on David Cameron to pull forward the vote and let the people decide.

The UK's flourishing startup scene, which is centred on east London, is already feeling the impact. Tech City UK, the publicly-funded industry group that promotes technology startups across the country, will hold a meeting with investors, businesses and EU officials in June to discuss issues relating to a potential UK exit.


1975: Labour delivers its promised EEC referendum with 67 percent of people voting to stay

When you speak to business leaders, politicians and financial experts outside the UK, its importance to the EU becomes clear. One senior German financial expert said the UK would be "foolish" to leave, adding that its best interests would be served by staying in the EU. The view held by Angela Merkel is one shared throughout Germany's science and technology industries: don't leave. One local political figure said the UK's high-tech sector couldn't risk not being part of the EU.

Daniel Boese, a senior executive at German industrial giant Festo, summed up the mood. "For German politics the UK is seen as an ally, as an ally for free markets and an ally in foreign policy with a lot of experience. It would certainly not increase the [success] of the EU if the UK were to leave"

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Getty/James Temperton


The numbers

The EU is the UK's biggest trading partner. In March 2015 the UK exported £11.8bn in goods to the EU, with imports at £19.7bn. By comparison all of the UK's non-EU exports combined in that same month totalled £16.5bn with imports at £16.3bn.

British companies and consumers benefit from free trade within the EU. Look outside the EU and it is clear how big its influence is on UK trade -- the USA, the UK's biggest non-EU trading partner, was responsible for £3.9bn in exports and £2.9bn in imports in March 2015.

1992: European leaders sign the Maastricht Treaty, creating the modern day European Union. A year later prime minister John Major survives a vote of no confidence in his government over the issue

According to think tank Open Europe the UK leaving the EU would shave 2.2 percent off the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Such a hit is unlikely to be offset solely by agreeing similar free trade deals as a non-EU member. The most likely outcome, where the UK strikes a widespread trade deal with the EU but does nothing else, would result in a 0.8 percent permanent loss to GDP.

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Some have pointed to Norway as an example of a country working outside the EU but still getting the benefits of the open market. Such comparisons are not persuasive according to economic experts. Norway, which is part of the European Economic Area, is still forced to implement EU rules but has no influence over them.

The UK is also unlikely to save much money by exiting the EU; one estimate claimed Britain would still face EU regulations of £31.4bn a year -- around 94 percent of current costs -- if it left the EU and negotiated a similar deal to Norway. How much the UK would remain under the influence of the EU -- and how much influence it would have as a non-member -- would depend entirely on what deal is negotiated.

1999: The Euro launches, but the UK doesn't sign up to the single currency

At the moment, uncertainty is the killer. Daniel Boese, who runs the education department of factory automation firm Festo, claims uncertainty over the UK's future EU membership means it is "not a good idea" for companies to take the risk. "If you want to get the support of the European Union I would not invest into the UK before the referendum," he said. Festo, one of the world's leading industrial manufacturers, is not alone in its concerns. Deutsche Bank has said it would consider moving its British division to Germany if the UK secedes, while aviation giant Airbus has said it would reconsider UK investment.

Getty/James Temperton

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For science

In science, collaboration is key -- and that doesn't stop at the EU. The UK's research institutions and universities thrive as a result of EU investment, contributing 14 percent of the most highly cited academic papers every year. To do the best scientific research academics argue they need the best minds available, regardless of where they come from.

According to Dr Andreas Dengel from DFKI, the German research centre for artificial intelligence, the EU free market is "not important" and science should be "open to all countries, not just the EU". Dengel says opening scientific borders to all comers is "something we shouldn't underestimate", arguing that allowing Pakistanis to come and work in Germany is just as important as ensuring free movement for Poles.

2008: Leb Dem leader Nick Clegg demands an in-out referendum on EU membership

Membership of the EU ensures the UK gets a substantial share of European Research Council (ERC) funding. The ERC has invested more than £5bn in scientific research in the UK since 2007, crucial at a time when the Conservative government continues to cut scientific investment in real terms. To date around a fifth of all ERC grants have gone to UK-based institutions, making them one of the largest beneficiaries of EU funding.

Competition for funds is fierce but strong -- the UK is second only to Germany in terms of the amount of bids it wins and funding it receives. The deal is also a good example of the UK getting more out than it paid in -- despite contributing 11 percent of the EU's total budget the UK receives 16 percent of the EU's science funds.

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The ERC's current budget of £10.7bn is drawn directly from the Horizon 2020 programme, which itself is worth nearly £67bn. The pot covers the next seven years of EU science funding and if previous performance continues the UK will receive £2bn in the first two years. That figure is around a fifth of the total science budget allocated by the British government.

2011: A Commons vote for a referendum on EU membership is defeated by 483 votes to 111 -- 81 Tory MPs support it

What impact seceding from the EU would have on the UK's scientific research will depend on what deal is negotiated. EU funding is dependent on the research being carried out in an EU member state or associated country. Institutes in Norway, for example, can apply for EU funding for scientific research.

In May an open letter published in The Times warned the UK leaving the EU would threaten research funding. "We wish to make known our support for the EU, its scientific direction and our continued membership," read the letter, co-signed by Astronomer Royal Martin Rees, Nature journal editor-in-chief Philip Campbell and Nobel-winning geneticist Paul Nurse. "It is not sufficiently known to the public that the EU is a boon to UK science and innovation. Freedom of movement for talent and ambitious EU science funding programmes, which support vital, complex international collaborations, put the UK in a world-leading position," they argued.

Shutterstock/James Temperton

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For technology and startups

Take a walk around Kreuzberg or Neukölln and the chatter is in English and Spanish. Berlin, with its cheap rents and youthful population, is attracting entrepreneurs from across Europe. The city is now host to around 1,500 tech and digital startups and alongside London and Tel Aviv is one of Europe's major tech hubs. If the UK leaves the EU, Berlin is ready to take advantage.

Berlin's startup scene is still dwarfed by London, but it's gaining. The city already has more than 50 coworking spaces, accelerators and incubators and claims a new startup is born every 20 hours. In 2014 funding excluding IPOs totalled £719m. The city is growing by 40,000 people a year, with one third of those coming from outside Germany. So, what if London leaves the EU?

2015: The Conservatives win a surprise majority and confirm their pledge to hold a referendum on the UK's EU membership by the end of 2017

"If a startup outside the EU was looking to come here, they probably wouldn't look at London" says Alexander Möller, head of smart cities at Berlin Partner, a public-private partnership that encourages business and tech investment in the German capital. He describes London as "definitely one of Berlin's biggest competitors", but admits an EU exit "could be an issue" for the capital's startup scene. For Berlin's startups, being international is a major draw.

Ultimately, the venture capital money "will go where the good startups are," Möller argues. A big shift could come if American startups looking to come to the EU started to ignore London. This, Möller admits "might be a problem" for the UK. That said, encouraging investment from outside the EU will also be key if the UK's startup community is to continue to grow.


Gerard Grech, CEO of Tech City, the publicly-funded industry group that promotes the UK's technology startups, believes leaving the EU would be a big mistake. "Digital businesses are very clear about the fact that when you look at the population of Europe, the talent pool is 400 million people which is comparable to the talent pool in the US, which is about 350 million people," he explains. "That's very important to any business looking to hire the best people. A lot of the businesses I talk to are saying they would welcome the EU referendum sooner rather than later as it negates any uncertainty in the marketplace."

Over to you

Leaving the EU poses a grave threat to the UK's science and technology industries and the businesses that thrive as a result of continued, world-beating innovation. Academics, financial experts and business leaders alike have warned that the UK's current flirtation with secession is damaging its reputation. Ignoring their informed opinions would be an error for both the political class and the electorate. Yet if the UK does vote to leave the EU it will be at the will of the people.

WIRED recently visited Germany to get the bigger picture on the UK's impending in/out referendum on EU. What, if anything, does the UK risk leaving behind? Read more of our coverage here.