Re: 4PM IA/NH poll call - agenda/outline

From:john@algpolling.com To: more tcarrk@hillaryclinton.com, kconnolly@bsgco.com, john.podesta@gmail.com, mvlacich@hillaryclinton.com, mhalle@hillaryclinton.com, mpaul@hillaryclinton.com, re47@hillaryclinton.com, kschake@hillaryclinton.com, mmarshall@hillaryclinton.com oshur@hillaryclinton.com, jbenenson@bsgco.com, gruncom@aol.com, Jim.Margolis@gmmb.com, David@db-research.com, pbrodnitz@bsgco.com kofferdahl@hillaryclinton.com, Ellen.Esterhay@gmmb.com, caitlin@grunwald-communications.com, jeff@algpolling.com, matt@algpolling.com, john@algpolling.com Date: 2015-06-04 17:31 Subject: Re: 4PM IA/NH poll call - agenda/outline

I wanted to throw a few more discussion points out there to think about pre-call: 1: the new twist on CGI since we last polled is the lack of transparency that was always a big defense for the Clintons. That has evaporated with the Canadian/Sweden/etc situations. We need to probe on whether voters are aware and also introduce it and get reactions. 2: The other new CGI issue is the article outlining all the foreign countries who got the red light from the State Dept. for arms sales who also gave to CGI. This total about $150 billion in arms sales, including a lot of middle eastern countries. 3: Does all the bad press make voters worry that this is going to hurt HRC in the general? Is there a “wounded” narrative building that could create an opening for another candidate or do they think it is all political 4: I also don’t think we are done talking about the Email server since there will be a congressional hearing and there is a Benghazi connection here. Also there has been news that a couple of the emails were confidential state dept business and not personal. I think it is worth a probe. 5: Is there any recognition of the policy roll outs/position staking that HRC has made in the last couple of months. Do they think she has been changing positions or always held them 6: Naturally O’Malley’s Wall Street attack 7: General receptivity and reaction to HRC’s trips to IA an NH. Are they viewing her interactions differently from 2008? Are they satisfied with her attention. 8: What do they recall from launch and announcement 9: Even if we get strong defenders of HRC that all of the bad press is political we should really press them on what they have heard bothers them the most or worries will cause problems in the future/general. — John Anzalone Anzalone Liszt Grove Research 334-387-3121 www.algpolling.com twitter: @AnzaloneLiszt Team – Below and attached is a rough agenda/outline to help guide the discussion on today’s 4PM call. 1. Review of timeline: a. Focus Groups: Cedar Rapids on June 15, Des Moines on June 16, Bedford on June 18 b. Surveys in NH and IA, week of June 22 c. Modeling in IA/NH will follow surveys d. Briefings in state for IA/NH teams following research (dates TBD) e. National survey (attack-response) – June 15 2. Discussion of Goals and Objectives: a. Focus groups – Iowa (June 15-16) and NH (June 18): Objectives: Understanding if we’ve taken on water (CGI etc), positioning against Dem opponents, measuring our opening ads. Important things to measure: a. Awareness of recent attacks against Hillary – both CGI and attacks from left by Democrats. Have they had an impact? If no awareness, introduce them, and measure likelihood to have an impact. b. HRC attributes [trust to fight for everyday Americans] c. Video of Sanders/O’Malley – are they appealing candidates on video? d. Profiles of Sanders/O’Malley – are they appealing on paper? e. Understand dynamic of Sanders as a self-described Socialist (include in profile graph?) f. Test Sanders negatives g. Test O’Malley negatives h. HRC ads – overarching goal: i. Determine which ads best bridge that gap between “fighter” and “fighter for everyday Americans” ii. Measure reactions to different creative approaches: HRC DTC, HRC narration, speech setting, etc. b. Surveys – NH/IA: Objective: Survey to inform our basic positioning against our primary opponents Big questions we need to answer: - Are voters aware of the recent negative news? (Open-end?) - Have we taken on water from recent news? Have our basic personal attributes moved? At what rate do voters believe she’ll be a fighter for their families? - How likely is our support to erode once O’M/Sanders get their messages out? - What happens when O’M/Sanders attack HRC w/out a response? [Including CGI] - What happens when HRC responds with her own message? - What happens when HRC responds by counter attacking O’M/Sanders? o What do voters think about Socialism and the idea that Sanders identifies as one? - After the voters are informed about the primary candidates – positives and negatives – where does the race want to go? c. National survey: Objective: Understanding if we’ve taken on water by recent attacks, the impact that the new CGI/pay-to-play attacks are likely to have, and how we respond to attacks Big questions to answer: - Are voters aware of the recent news? (open-end?) - Has the recent news softened our approvals/head-head/attributes? - Do the new CGI/pay-to-play attacks resonate more than prior tested attacks? - How do we best respond to CGI/pay-play attacks? - Additional questions to help refine our frame on the Republican candidates as a group(?)