

Intro



Here I attempt to take a precise look at the statistical evidence we have for all NBA players under the age of 25 from the last year and, from there, provide a rankings based off of numbers alone. My hope is to provide a different yet rich look at everything these professionals have accomplished this year. The list may counter both consensus thought & my own opinions but also bring a valid perspective.



This list is meant to comparatively quantify the volume and efficiency of each player’s most recent year of basketball. I have also provided a player with a comparable production layout (from this exercise's perspective) from the 2008 season.



Enjoy.



Methods



First, I collected a group of all NBA players who both were the age of 24 & under this year and played at least 200 minutes this NBA season (for both the 2017-18 season and the 2007-2008 season). I then gathered these 5 stats for each player:

-Age [30%]

-VORP [10%]

-BPM [10%]

-TS% [10%]

-Total Shooting Possessions (FGA + FTA/2) [40%]

These stats were selected based on their reliability and association with winning basketball. Shooting possessions is meant to measure a players volume of impact; VORP, BPM and true shooting percentages are meant to measure a players efficiency; and a player's age regulates expectations.



All players’ stats were converted into z-scores (the amount of standard deviations away from the mean their datum is) based off the set group of eligible NBA players. This serves as a universal translation that helps compare all stats evenly. Those z-scores were then given unique weightings [listed above] to reflect the importance of their stat in the context of the NBA & combined to give us our magic formula.





I conducted this process for the NBA players who met the requirements in both 2018 and 2008 so I could have a better perspective of the formula I was working on. The year 2008 was chose because I feel ten years is long enough to see how all the players' careers have resolved while still remaining relevant to today's game. I believe both lists are ripe for discussion.





Notes



-All data taken from basketball-reference.com

-All players stats taken from 2017-2018 & 2007-2008 season

-2018 based off a set group of 164

-2008 based off a set group of 128



Let's go...



RANKINGS



The overall list (both 2018 & 2008) can be viewed the highlights follow The overall list (both 2018 & 2008) can be viewed here , butthe highlights follow







1. Giannis Antetokounmpo

2018 Age Score: -0.517 (23y)

2018 VORP Score: 3.863 (5.4)

2018 BPM Score: 2.556 (5.8)

2018 TS% Score: 1.142 (0.598)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 2.984 (1722.5)

Final Score: 1.794



2008 Comp: Chris Paul - 22y, 8.5vorp, 9.2bpm, 0.576ts, 1486sp, 1.794f (2nd )

-Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in on top due to his premium offensive load coupled with his top-notch advanced numbers. While Antetopoumpo is now too old to compare to Durant in 2008 and not on the level of LeBron's 2008 campaign (nobody is), he does match up fairly with the numbers of Chris Paul in 2008 due to Giannis' high shooting efficiency and elite volume. In a pool of many exciting names, Giannis sticks out as the surest bet.





2. Karl Anthony-Towns

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (22y)

2018 VORP Score: 3.943 (5.5)

2018 BPM Score: 2.449 (5.5) 2018 TS% Score: 2.007 (0.646)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 2.111 (1373)

Final Score: 1.734



2008 Comp: Dwight Howard - 22y, 3.3vorp, 2.2bpm, 0.619ts, 1422.5sp. 1.277f (5th)

-Coming in second is Karl Anthony-Towns who has the likes of 2008 Dwight Howard pretty much eclipsed. As many have said, KAT's biggest weakness this year has been his relatively mute shooting volume which, if cut loose, could have Towns in first place next year. While KAT often gets a lot of trouble for his poor defense, all the trusted advanced stats still count him as a net positive. There is plenty about Karl Anthony-Towns' situation that gives pause but these numbers lead me to believe that he actually might be underrated.





3. Anthony Davis

2018 Age Score: -1.201 (24y)

2018 VORP Score: 3.467 (4.9vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 2.343 (5.2bpm) 2018 TS% Score: 1.394 (0.612ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 3.080 (1761sp)

Final Score: 1.592



2008 Comp: Chris Bosh - 23y, 3.5vorp, 3.7bpm, 0.588ts, 1306.5sp, 0.951f (10th)

-The gold standard, Anthony Davis checks every box for a franchise player and is only lacking in his relatively advanced age. Since Davis will essentially be graduating into his prime next year, he is bumped down to third on this particular list but all his other measures are truly elite. Even when matched up next to 2008 Chris Bosh it seems like AD is ahead of the curve and could be a hall-of-famer if he is able to find a successful situation.





4. Nikola Jokic

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (22y)

2018 VORP Score: 4.022 (5.6vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 3.017 (7.1bp

m)

2018 TS% Score: 1.232 (0.603ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.595 (1166.5sp)

Final Score: 1.515



2008 Comp: Andre Iguodala - 24y, 5.2vorp, 4.3bpm, 0.543ts, 1530sp, 0.974f (9th)

-It is surprising just how much the advanced stats love Nikola Jokic. Even though 2008 Igoudala's true shooting percentage does not do Jokic justice, Igoudala is the only player left from 2008 that holds a candle Jokic's production. Nikola's biggest current knock is his lower amount of shooting possessions for an elite player. If that is rectified, the sky is the limit.





5. Ben Simmons

2018 Age Score: 0.851 (21y)

2018 VORP Score: 3.229 (4.6vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 2.130 (4.6bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.403 (0.557ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.600 (1168.5sp)

Final Score: 1.472



2008 Comp: Josh Smith - 22y, 3.7vorp, 3.1bpm, 0.520ts, 1367.5sp, 1.102f (8th)

-Some might think it an insult to compare Ben Simmons to 2008 Josh Smith rather than LeBron James. However, since it is clear that Simmons is a cut above Smith (better advanced stats at a young age), I think of this more as a compliment to LeBron than an insult to anyone else. Simmons gets a lot of LeBron comps (even James himself seems to buy into it) but, in all honesty, Ben is going to need to take a leap or two to actually reach that lofty bar. Still, that is no knock to Simmons who comes in fifth here.





6. Donovan Mitchell

2018 Age Score: 0.851 (21y)

2018 VORP Score: 1.246 (2.1vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.889 (1.1bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.115 (0.541ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 2.454 (1510.5sp)

Final Score: 1.462



2008 Comp: Rudy Gay - 21y, 2.1vorp, 0.8bpm, 0.546ts, 1513sp, 1.335f (4th)

-One of my favorite comparisons here, Donovan Mitchell is a rookie that has been setting the world on fire this year as he garners comparisons to the likes of Dwyane Wade. However, it is rather noticeable how similar Mitchell's numbers are to Rudy Gay's in 2008. Maybe Gay isn't the most exciting comparison these days but I actually think Rudy has become pretty underrated over the years. While I expect Mitchell to experience more team success than Gay usually did, I do think their individual levels of production are highly comparable.





7. Jayson Tatum

2018 Age Score: 2.219 (19y)

2018 VORP Score: 1.008 (1.8vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.853 (1.0bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.926 (0.586ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.089 (964sp)

Final Score: 1.380



2008 Comp: Thaddeus Young - 19y, 1.0vorp, 0.6bpm, 0.570ts, 541.5sp, 0.862f (15th)

-Boston's young phenom, Jayson Tatum, comes in at seventh due to his quality numbers across the board at the youngest age possible. Since there weren't many 19 year olds in 2008, Thaddeus Young is the closest comparison we have from that year which doesn't really do Tatums shooting volume justice. That being said, it seems like Jayson is destined for a decade of productive NBA basketball with upside to develop a central offensive game. I, for one, think Young is an extremely exciting floor for a prospect.





8. Jamal Murray

2018 Age Score: 1.535 (20y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.532 (1.2vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.428 (-0.2bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.746 (0.576ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.650 (1188.5sp)

Final Score: 1.291



2008 Comp: Monta Ellis - 22y, 2.9vorp, 1.7bpm, 0.580ts, 1435.5sp, 1.179f (7th)





-There is a lot about Jamal Murray's game that draws interest. At such a young age, Murray is already ahead of the curve in production and emerging as an elite volume scorer. Monta Ellis may not have had the most electric career but 2008 was also Ellis' best statistical year & Murray seems to be outpacing it (since he is still two years younger). Either way, I loved Monta and think he is an excellent floor for any young player in today's game.









9. Bradley Beal

2018 Age Score: -1.201 (24y)

2018 VORP Score: 1.721 (2.7vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 1.101 (1.7bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.529 (0.564ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.725 (1668sp)

Final Score: 1.114



2008 Comp: Carmelo Anthony - 23y, 2.6vorp, 1.6bpm, 0.568ts, 1776sp, 1.224f (6th)





-Bradley Beal comes in ninth for his elite volume scoring and his above-average production. This was the easiest comparison to find as Beal shares almost identical statistics to Carmelo Anthony in 2008. Beal is a year older than Anthony was then so Carmelo may be more of a ceiling than a floor for Beal. Yet that's still pretty good considering how noteworthy Melo has been for so long. The numbers support it, Bradley Beal has definitely developed into a premier weapon in today's game.





10. Devin Booker

2018 Age Score: 0.851 (21y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.532 (1.2vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.640 (0.4bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.475 (0.561ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 2.848 (1216.5sp)

Final Score: 1.110



2008 Comp: LeMarcus Aldridge - 22y, 1.8vorp, 0.8bpm, 0.523ts, 1309sp, 0.866f (14th)

- The biggest knock for Devin Booker has to be the amount of games he has missed this year which muted what could have been an elite shooting volume. Despite that, Booker stacks up well next to LeMarcus Aldridge from 2008. Having Aldridge almost matched even though Booker is a year younger is very impressive and suggests that Booker could truly blossom into top offensive threat in the NBA if he ever finds a positive situation.









11. Joel Embiid

2018 Age Score: -0.517 (23y)

2018 VORP Score: 1.325 (2.2vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 1.421 (2.6bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.691 (0.573ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.902 (1289.5sp)

Final Score: 0.949



2008 Comp: Deron Williams - 23y, 3.2vorp, 2.1bpm, 0.595ts, 1322.5sp, 0.910f (13th)

-Considering many might rank him first, i t could be blasphemous to rank Joel Embiid this low. However, Embiid's advanced measures aren't actually that impressive & his amount of missed games this year stifled his shooting volume. All of this is to say that The Process still needs to answer questions of efficiency & durability. Clearly, Embiid has a generational presence and impact on the game but the cold hard numbers don't quite show that yet, landing him here.





12. John Collins

2018 Age Score: 1.535 (20y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.929 (1.7vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 1.101 (1.7bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 1.539 (0.620ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.275 (638sp)

Final Score: 0.927



2008 Comp: Andrew Bynum - 20y, 1.6vorp, 4.5bpm, 0.659ts, 356sp, 0.786f (16th)

- I am a fan of John Collins but I am surprised to see him ranked this high. The Hawks rookie clocks in at twelfth due his proficient production at such a young age. Collins may be a few steps away from being a central offensive player at this point but his level of efficiency suggests that he will remain an NBA staple for years to come. Comparing him to Andrew Bynum may not be exactly fair since Bynum's 2008 season was cut short due to injury but Collins' rookie season actually stacks up pretty well with Andrew's shortened Laker days.





13. Jarrett Allen

2018 Age Score: 2.219 (19y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.215 (0.8vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.569 (0.2bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 1.827 (0.636ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: -0.143 (470.5sp)

Final Score: 0.870



2008 Comp: Andris Biedrins - 21y, 2vorp, 1.8bpm, 0.637ts, 636.5sp, 0.9721f (18th)

- Another player that I am a personal fanboy of, Jarrett Allen comes in outrageously high due to his excellent production numbers at such a young age. It was actually very difficult to find a 2008 comparison for Allen (I considered Daniel Gibson & Joakim Noah) because it is very rare for advanced stats to be so fond of a 19 year old. Yet, until Jarrett can prove to be a more consistently central part of an offense, all this excitement rings a bit hallow which is why I landed on the Biedrins comparison.





14. Dennis Smith Jr.

2018 Age Score: 1.535 (20y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.499 (-0.1vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -0.317 (-2.3bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -1.111 (0.473ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.478 (1119.5sp)

Final Score: 0.859



2008 Comp: Mike Conley - 20y, -0.3vorp, -3.0bpm, 0.502ts, 503.5sp, 0.291f (39th)

-The inverse of Jarrett Allen, Dennis Smith Jr. is a young player that the advanced statistics dislike but has the shooting volume on his side. It is difficult to project a player like this because they are essentially a wild card. While the Mike Conley comparison is favorable, I could have just as easily compared DSJ to Jeff Green. Ultimately, I believe in Dennis Smith Jr. and expect the advanced stats to develop in time while also taking steps in volume as well. Maybe DSJ is a net negative but the same could be said of Conley ten years ago.





15. Lauri Markkanen

2018 Age Score: 1.535 (20y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.340 (0.1vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -0.175 (-1.9bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.313 (0.552ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.042 (945sp)

Final Score: 0.857



2008 Comp: Marvin Williams - 21y, 0.3vorp, -1.6bpm, 0.540ts, 1122.5sp, 0.783f (17th)

-Lauri Markkanen caught a lot of hype this year as the surprisingly productive rookie and deservedly so. While Marvin Williams isn't the most ballyhooed, he has done much more than many of his contemporaries and Markkanen is basically a year ahead of Marvin. Due to his limited shooting volume, Lauri may not have shown signs of a franchise player yet but he does seem to be an strong piece to any puzzle.





16. Brandon Ingram

2018 Age Score: 1.535 (20y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.103 (0.4vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.037 (-1.3bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.025 (0.536ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.934 (902sp)

Final Score: 0.830



2008 Comp: Lou Williams - 21y, 0.8vorp, -0.2bpm, 0.523ts, 897sp, 0.620f (22nd)

- The jury seems to still be out on Brandon Ingram but this exercise suggests that he still has plenty of time to develop into anything he wants. Like Markkanen, Ingram's major limitation is his shooting volume but his young age gives room for everything to be put together. Like I suggested with DSJ, players this young can take steps forward in efficiency and volume at the same time which gives all these prospects a level of tantalization that cannot be ignored.





17. Andre Drummond

2018 Age Score: -1.201 (24y)

2018 VORP Score: 3.546 (5.0vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 2.449 (5.5bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.367 (0.555ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.375 (1078.5sp)

Final Score: 0.826



2008 Comp: Danny Granger - 24y, 2.5vorp, 1.4bpm, 0.571ts, 1394sp, 0.645f (21st)

-Like Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond is punished for his senior status. We all pretty much know who Drummond is at this point & I'm not exactly sure how far that gets a team. The efficiency is strong and the volume is quality but it seems like Andre needs to be the second or third best player of a championship team these days. I am rooting for Drummond as much as the next guy but he isn't exactly setting my world on fire. The numbers back these feelings up.





18. Andrew Wiggins

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (22y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.737 (-0.4vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -0.388 (-2.5bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -0.534 (0.505ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 2.321 (1457sp)

Final Score: 0.812



2008 Comp: Ben Gordon - 24y, 1.1vorp, -0.1bpm, 0.558ts, 1215.5sp, 0.554f (36th)

-I have been an Andrew Wiggins advocate since the beginning but my excitement wanes by the year. If I was being forgiving, I'd compare him to Luol Deng; if I was damming, I'd compare Wiggins to Jeff Green. The advanced stats simply don't like Andrew Wiggins but he continues to produce an elite volume at a decently young age. Some might call Wiggins' volume another detriment to his game (and it currently is) but I believe he can still develop int a quality version of himself. It is unfortunate that DeMar DeRozan didn't start playing until the 2010 season, otherwise he'd be a perfect comparison.





19. Jaylen Brown

2018 Age Score: 0.851 (21y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.373 (1.0vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.463 (-0.1bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.978 (0.562ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.978 (919.5sp)

Final Score: 0.780



2008 Comp: Al Horford - 21y, 1.2vorp, -0.2bpm, 0.539ts, 774sp, 0.560f (23rd)

-Jaylen Brown is the definition of a "fit player" and the numbers back this up. Much like Ingram and Markkanen before him, Brown shows excellent signs of both volume and efficiency for his age. The only issue for him compared to those two is his extra year, otherwise he has them both beat. In fact, Brown even stacks up well next to his all-star teammate's 2008 campaign. Jaylen Brown may not have the stats that immediately catch the eye but they imply that Jaylen will be a staple for years to come.





20. Julius Randle

2018 Age Score: -0.517 (23y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.849 (1.6vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.818 (0.9bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 1.286 (0.606ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.470 (1116.5sp)

Final Score: 0.728



2008 Comp: Andrew Bogut - 23y, 2.2vorp, 1.2bpm, 0.532ts, 1071sp, 0.478f (30th)

-The unexpected second Laker is Julius Randle. Randle may be on the older side but he has produced a year of proficient volume and efficiency that puts him in rarer air than one might expect. The other Lakers have the allure of what they might become but the numbers like what Randle has already proven himself to be. Maybe Julius is nothing more than a quality starter in the NBA but that is very high level of basketball when it's all said and done.





21. Kyle Kuzma

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (22y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.103 (0.4vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.037 (-1.3bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.259 (0.549ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.536 (1143sp)

Final Score: 0.684



2008 Comp: Al Jefferson - 23y, 1.7vorp, 0.3bpm, 0.535ts, 1638sp, 0.944f (11th)

- Kyle Kuzma has a lot of attention this year for his quality volume and decent efficiency. While I do have my reservations, it is clear that Kuzma could make it as a volume offensive player. Maybe 2008 Al Jefferson isn't the most exciting name there is but he did last a long time & Kuzma could end up outpacing him next year. The Lakers have a lot of options and Kyle Kuzma is definitely in play as one of their best.





23. Myles Turner

2018 Age Score: 0.851 (21y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.611 (1.3vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.747 (0.7bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.583 (0.567ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.535 (742sp)

Final Score: 0.663



2008 Comp: Jordan Farmar - 23y, 1.2vorp, 0.7bpm, 0.563ts, 670sp, 0.536f (26th)

- Myles Turner disappointed many expectations this season because he did not play a very central role in his team's offense. Turner is still young and the advanced stats are on his side but he volume simply wasn't where many had hoped it would be this year. There is still plenty of time & Myles' "poor" year is still two years ahead of Jordan Farmar's best. I am still a believer in Turner's game but the numbers put him here.





24. Clint Capela

2018 Age Score: -0.517 (23y)

2018 VORP Score: 1.642 (2.6vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 1.563 (3.0bpm) 2018 TS% Score: 2.079 (0.650ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.691 (804.5sp)

Final Score: 0.650



2008 Comp: Paul Milsap - 22y, 1.7vorp, 1.9bpm, 0.548ts, 616.5sp, 0.305f (37th)

-The advanced statistics love Clint Capela and I do too. Capela may be getting older now & his volume may never be much more than supporting but Clint's game is highly efficient. Compared to 2008 Paul Milsap, I believe Capela shines through as superior and that is a tall order. Capela's ceiling may be questionable but his floor is already in the range of a boarder line all-star.













29. Kristpas Porzingis

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (22y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.023 (0.5vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.250 (-0.7bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.079 (0.539ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.245 (1026.5sp)

Final Score: 0.579



2008 Comp: Kyle Lowry - 21y, 0.8vorp, -0.6bpm, 0.531ts, 766sp, 0.502f (27th)

-

Many will scoff at seeing Kristaps Porzingis ranked this low but this exercise punishes missed games heavily. Kristpas is still on the younger side, decently efficient and his volume is good too. However, because Porzingis was not unleashed for the entire year, none of his numbers actually jump off the page. It is clear that KP has top ten upside but it is also unclear how many games he is capable of playing in a given season. Because Porzingis submitted a partially elite season, he is ranked as a partially elite player.





30. Aaron Gordon

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (22y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.373 (1.0vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.499 (0.0bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -0.084 (0.530ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.123 (977.5sp)

Final Score: 0.578



2008 Comp: Luol Deng - 22y, 1.1vorp, 0.1bpm, 0.528ts, 1028.5sp, 0.554f (24th)

- Aaron Gordon is often touted as Orlando's next franchise player and subsequently bashed for not being worthy of such a label. As usual, the truth lies somewhere in between as Gordon has put together numbers of a quality starter with room to be a boarder line all-star if put in an advantageous situation. Like a few listed before him, Aaron Gordon is ahead of the curve in both efficiency and volume which is ideal. The only thing really setting Gordon back is his lack of elite measures in any particular category.





31. Lonzo Ball

2018 Age Score: 1.535 (20y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.929 (1.7vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 1.101 (1.7bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -1.634 (0.444ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.179 (599.5sp)

Final Score: 0.572



2008 Comp: Rajon Rondo - 21y, 2.7vorp, 2.6bpm, 0.515ts, 800.5sp, 0.720f (19th)

- The apple of LA's eye may be ranked rather low here but it is because his advanced measures are somewhat mixed and his shooting volume is rather small. Lonzo Ball is still very young and shows signs of proficiency in both efficiency and volume. However, unlike his teammates, Ball is sailing a bit more on potential than proof still. Despite that and his unorthodox game, Lonzo is still on pace with the likes of 2008 Rajon Rondo and is still a strong bet to become an elite force for years to come.



33. Steven Adams

2018 Age Score: -1.201 (24y)

2018 VORP Score: 2.198 (3.3vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 1.669 (3.3bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 1.719 (0.630ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.818 (855.5sp)

Final Score: 0.525



2008 Comp: Ronnie Brewer - 22y, 3.1vorp, 3.9bpm, 0.612ts, 762.5sp, 0.701f (20th)

-Steven Adams' game is a cult favorite due to his elite efficiency and supporting volume. Though he may be graduating into his prime soon, there is no doubt that Adams has given far more to his team than many of his contemporaries can say. As for the Ronnie Brewer comparison, it may not be the most flashy but Brewer's game was loved by the advanced stats and he lasted a few years in the league as a quality player before fading out. Adams has certainly established himself as a quality starter in the NBA and there is a chance he could remain that way for the next handful of years.





34. OG Anunoby

2018 Age Score: 1.535 (20y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.373 (1.0vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.711 (0.6bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.944 (0.587ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: -0.377 (377sp)

Final Score: 0.513



2008 Comp: CJ Miles - 20y, 0.4vorp, 0.4bpm, 0.574ts, 262sp, 0.347f (35th)

- The top Raptor is these rankings is OG Anunoby due to his quality advanced stats for such a young age. It remains to be seen if Anunoby's shooting volume can be anything more than peripheral but he youth and efficiency give space for much development. CJ Miles is an unlikely comparison since Miles is known more for his volume than his efficiency these days but CJ is a good example of how much a player's game can evolve over the years. Regardless of what OG becomes, however, it is good to see such a strong production foundation so early on.





35. Jusuf Nurkic

2018 Age Score: -0.517 (23y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.532 (1.2vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.605 (0.3bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -0.120 (0.528ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.398 (1087.5sp)

Final Score: 0.506



2008 Comp: Nate Robinson - 23y, 0.9vorp, 0.0bpm, 0.526ts, 880sp, 0.347f (47th)

-Jusuf Nurkic made quite a splash when he first arrived in Portland but his game has caught a lot of criticism in the time since. Nurkic is not so young anymore but he is taking on a heavy volume and getting decent efficiency numbers. However, there is some concern over how much Jusuf actually contributes to winning NBA basketball games, much like Nate Robinson in 2008. While it appears Nurkic is ahead of Robinson in terms of contributions, it is not by enough to completely wash away those concerns.









37. Dejounte Murray

2018 Age Score: 0.851 (21y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.691 (1.4vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.924 (1.2bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -0.895 (0.485ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.387 (683sp)

Final Score: 0.482



2008 Comp: Andray Blatche - 21y, 1.0vorp, 0.5bpm, 0.512ts, 613sp, 0.374f (33rd)

- I am a fan of Dejounte Murray so it was painful for me to write down Andray Blatche as his comparison. The bottom line is that the numbers are still rather mixed for Dejounte and he isn't so young that it can be easily excused. Despite this, I remain confident that Murray can put it all together in a more successful way than Blatche did because Dejounte is in a much better situation to succeed.





38. De'Aaron Fox

2018 Age Score: 1.535 (20y)

2018 VORP Score: -1.372 (-1.2vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -1.062 (-4.4bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -1.021 (0.478ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.916 (894.5sp)

Final Score: 0.481



2008 Comp: Jeff Green - 21y, -0.7vorp, -3.2bpm, 0.491ts, 868sp, 0.351f (34th)

- De'Aaron Fox doesn't get much love from the advanced stats but that often comes with the territory of a rookie point guard. While Fox's youth can excuse a lot of his short comings, it would have been nice to see him take more total shots this year (a la DSJ). Fox is a year younger than his 2008 comp, Jeff Green but De'Aaron will need to take a step forward next year if he wants to stay on NBA rotation pace.



46. Josh Richardson

2018 Age Score: -1.201 (24y)

2018 VORP Score: 1.404 (2.3vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.995 (1.4bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.295 (0.551ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 1.069 (965sp)

Final Score: 0.337



2008 Comp: Kevin Martin - 24y, 1.7vorp, 1.1bpm, 0.618ts, 1203sp, 0.496f (28th)

-Josh Richardson may not be the highest ranking member of Miami's core (Bam has him slightly beat) but he is the most interesting to me. J-Rich is a senior in these rankings so what you see is mostly what you get at this point and it is quite a lot. Richardson may not have quite the volume of 2008 Kevin Martin but I think Josh makes it fair with his advanced measures. It will be interesting to see how far Josh Richardson can go but these numbers suggest that he'll be a quality, versatile starter for years to come.





49. Malik Monk

2018 Age Score: 2.219 (19y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.816 (-0.5vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -1.062 (-4.4bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -1.039 (0.477ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: -0.210 (444sp)

Final Score: 0.290



2008 Comp: Spencer Hawes - 19y, -0.6vorp, -4.4bpm, 0.486ts, 347sp, 0.496f (41st)

-There wasn't much that Malik Monk did this year on a whole but his saving grace of youth keeps Monk in the conversation of interesting NBA prospects. The advanced stats are not on Malik's side but he did garner enough shooting volume to stay on the radar. There is promise that Monk will take steps forward in every measure here next year but it is unclear just how much room he will have to do so. It is also unclear if Malik Monk is qualified to take on a bigger role. There is still much for Monk to prove but he has more time than most to do so.





59. Dillon Brooks

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (22y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.975 (-0.7vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -0.601 (-3.1bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -0.066 (0.531ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.817 (855sp)

Final Score: 0.213



2008 Comp: Andrea Bargnani - 22y, -0.5vorp, -3.0bpm, 0.495ts, 809.5sp, 0.100f (55th)

-Memphis is in the earliest stages of a rebuild but they already have a young prospect to talk about in Dillon Brooks. While Brooks may be a bit behind in the advanced stats, there is still enough space here for Dillon to develop into a quality NBA starter. 2008 Bargnani gets a lot a flack for being drafted way too high but Andrea did stick around NBA rotations for many years. I believe that is a reasonable and respectable curve for Dillon Brooks to beat over these next few seasons.





60. Ante Zizic

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (21y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.975 (0.1vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -0.601 (0.1bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -0.066 (0.746ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.817 (81.5sp)

Final Score: 0.213



2008 Comp: Brandan Wright - 20y, 0.0vorp, -2.4bpm, 0.583ts, 132sp, 0.133f (51st)

- Ante Zizic is Cleveland's most promising young prospect which says a lot about the state of that franchise. Zizic performed well enough in all advanced measures (especially his true shooting percentage) but Ante's shooting volume was almost nonexistent this year. The numbers suggest that that Zizic could develop into an NBA rotation player but Cleveland will need to send the ball his way more to find out for sure.





64. Montrezl Harrell

2018 Age Score: -1.201 (24y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.770 (1.5vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 1.350 (2.4bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 2.025 (0.647ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.327 (659sp)

Final Score: 0.185



2008 Comp: Kendrick Perkins - 23y, 2.2vorp, 2.6bpm, 0.632ts, 439.5sp, 0.122f (53rd)

- Montrezl Harrell may not be known by the casual NBA fan but he has produced quality numbers for a few years now. The Clippers' most promising young player may not have the highest ceiling but it does seem like he'll be a piece of the Clippers' future for the time being. Not everyone can be an all-star but if Harrell can maintain his production and progression, he may become a quality starter like his 2008 comparison, Kendrick Perkins.









81. Emmanuel Mudiay

2018 Age Score: 0.851 (21y)

2018 VORP Score: -1.134 (-0.9vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -1.169 (-4.7bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -1.093 (0.474ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: 0.156 (590.5sp)

Final Score: -0.022



2008 Comp: Yi Jianlian - 20y, -1.1vorp, -4.6bpm, 0.485ts, 592.5sp, 0.244f (43rd)

-I hope to maintain a certain level of optimism in all these evaluations but it is difficult to find much positivity in Emmanuel Mudiay's numbers this year. The advance stats are not fans and Mudiay's age & volume are only marginally good. Emmanuel may still be a bit young and attempting to take on larger roles but his numbers are no better than Yi Jianlian in 2008 (and Jianlian was a year younger at the time). Simply put, Mudiay will have to make some overhauls to his game if wants to find himself in any productive rotations.





84. Jordan Bell

2018 Age Score: -0.517 (23y)

2018 VORP Score: 0.532 (1.2vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 1.811 (3.7bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 1.917 (0.641ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: -0.802 (207sp)

Final Score: -0.050



2008 Comp: Josh Childress - 24y, 2.5vorp, 2.4bpm, 0.647ts, 710.5sp, 0.186f (45th)

- Jordan Bell made a lot of noise in his limited time on the court this season. The advanced stats love Bell but he will have to prove that he can handle a much larger volume if he wants to make a real impact on the NBA scene. Josh Childress ended up peaking in 2008 so this may be a misleading comparison but, like Childress ten years ago, Bell is currently on the cusp of proving his NBA validity.





85. Markelle Fultz

2018 Age Score: 2.219 (19y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.499 (-0.1vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -0.566 (-3.0bpm)

2018 TS% Score: -2.139 (0.416ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: -1.015 (121.5sp)

Final Score: -0.061



2008 Comp: Wilson Chandler - 20y, -0.3vorp, -3.5bpm, 0.480ts, 269sp, 0.022f (60th)

- It was pretty much a disaster of a year for Markelle Fultz but his extreme youth salvages the lost season. None of the advanced stats are fond of Fultz but that is very common for players in his situation. Meanwhile, Markelle was able to get enough shots in to keep his name in the conversation. It is still to be seen what Markelle Fultz will become but the numbers say he will need to make a few leaps over the course of his early years to stick around.





92. Jabari Parker

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (22y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.420 (0.0vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -0.134 (-1.8bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.277 (0.550ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: -0.422 (359sp)

Final Score: -0.147



2008 Comp: Jared Dudley - 22y, 0.6vorp, -0.3bpm, 0.528ts, 407sp, - 0.058f (64th)

- From one lost season to another, Jabari Parker had about as tough a year a player could have while still registering 200 minutes. I am an advocate of Parker's but it is more than his missed time that is problem this season. A player returning from a long-term injury is expected to struggle in the early stages of his return but these numbers are difficult to overlook. I have confidence that Jabari will bounce-back but it is important to acknowledge what he would be bouncing back from.





112. Jahlil Okafor

2018 Age Score: 0.167 (22y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.578 (-0.2vorp)

2018 BPM Score: -1.098 (-4.5bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.890 (0.584ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: -0.938 (152.5sp)

Final Score: -0.404



2008 Comp: Gerald Green - 22y, -0.4vorp, -6.9bpm, 0.453ts, 171.5sp, - 0.673f (108th)

- Time is running out for Jahlil Okafor to put together a game that can last on the NBA level. His advanced stats are mixed at best and Okafor's volume has evaporated over his short career. There is still time for Jahlil to find a niche but that quest is seeming more unlikely every year. The stagnation of Jahlil Okafor's numbers support this narrative.





115. Nerlens Noel

2018 Age Score: -0.517 (23y)

2018 VORP Score: -0.103 (0.4vorp)

2018 BPM Score: 0.853 (1.0bpm)

2018 TS% Score: 0.421 (0.558ts%)

2018 Shooting Possessions Score: -1.021 (119sp)

Final Score: -0.447



2008 Comp: Carl Landry - 24y, 0.7vorp, 1.8bpm, 0.641ts, 273.5sp, - 0.353f (85th)

-Nerlens Noel has found himself in many unfortunate situations during his NBA career. Noel is not too young anymore but the advanced stats are generally on his side. The conversation stops, however, when we look at Nerlens' minuscule shooting volume. Like with Okafor, Noel still has room to find a situation that works. But, for Nerlens, it is about his productivity thus far rather than his youth. All of this is to say that Nerlens is more likely to fit into today's NBA than Okafor but he has less time to prove it.



Conclusion



After combing over these two sets of data, I feel comfortable in saying that today's NBA is younger than it was just ten years ago. I suspected that a byproduct of the "pace and space" era would be a youth movement as well and this exercise definitely supports that notion. While today's NBA may lack a generational talent (like LeBron) or generational prospect (like Durant), each player from today seems to measure well next to their counterparts in ranking and comparison. I believe this is because most franchises are now more aware of the value in investing in younger players earlier coupled with the current trends of play style suiting younger athlete compared to NBA trends of the past.



Overall, the crop of youth in today's NBA feels particularly flush and, whether by design or or fortune, I am appreciative as an NBA fan.