Olympic Games Road Race Preview

The ultimate one day race? If the Tour de France represents the pinnacle of world cycling and the Tour of Flanders is arguably the top one-day classic of the season, the Olympic Games road race is unique because of its rarity and international recognition.

The men’s road race is the longest event of the 2012 Olympic games across all sports, taking an estimated six hours. This matters because the course is all about the distance and time, a small climb will be used and if it is not selective once then it will end the hopes of many by the ninth time after which the race heads back to London for a superb finish on The Mall, the proud avenue in front of Buckingham Palace.

The Route: the race heads out of London following the Thames for some time and sticking to a flat route that will be used in reverse five or six hours later until it reaches Richmond Park, the Mecca for London cyclists where the large anti-clockwise outward loop begins. Here the race continues on a flat route until the first climb of Staple Lane at 55km. Short and steep, it is vaguely reminiscent of something out of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, perhaps La Redoute, although half the length. There’s a steep descent through woodland to the main road and then the race then heads east to the amusingly-named town of Dorking, passing typical British scenes of houses with thatched roofs, pubs with monarchist names and where the air should be scented with the midday aromas of roast beef and chicken curry.

No time for the riders to stop as Box Hill awaits. It’s an outcrop of limestone, not quite a cliff but more than rolling hill. The road zig-zags up the climb which is 2.5km long at an average of 4.9% with a maximum of 6.5%. Once at the top of the climb the road carries along the ridge and then turns to continue before a descent in three parts. First it takes a narrow road, then rises with a short steep kick and then descends again, before a short rise and then a left turn and down a long and wide road with a turn at the bottom, then another wide road and then suddenly a sharp left turn onto a narrow road which leads back to the start of the Box Hill climb. There are nine laps in total. The climb itself is not hard but the repetition makes it hard, plus positioning matters as the narrow roads don’t allow too many chances to move up if you slip back and the wider sections are fast meaning riders could struggle to move up. Any rider dropping their chain or puncturing will pay heavily.

The Finish: after the nine laps the riders head north and into the suburbs of London before reaching Richmond Park and picking up the route they took earlier to head back to the finish on The Mall, a worthy rival to Paris’ Champs Elysées for glamour and pomp, only flatter and faster.

The Tactics: in two words: beat Cavendish.

For me only two teams can realistically hope to beat Mark Cavendish in a bunch sprint. Slovakia’s Peter Sagan finished very fast on the Champs Elysées in Paris and could be fresher after the climbing but he’s been riding post-Tour criteriums, rather than calmly planning for this race. On the right day André Greipel has as much speed as Cavendish and he copes surprisingly well with the climbing as we saw on the stage to Cap d’Agde during the Tour. But Cavendish himself can cope with the climbing, he’s won Milan-Sanremo before and he coped with the Cote de Lissac climb before his astonish stage win in Brive. The Great Britain team will work to set up Cavendish, meaning they will close down any breakaways with Wiggins, Froome, Millar and Stannard.

Next we have a second tier of sprinters. Matthew Goss wasn’t quite fast enough in France but you never know, especially as he’s a candidate to make it to the finish, like Greg Henderson, Tyler Farrar and John Degenkolb, who brings a second card for the German team to play. Richeze of Argetina is fast but less certain to be there in the finish, the same for U-23 World Champ Arnaud Démare. And don’t forget Lars Boom, no stranger to winning in London after he won last year’s Tour of Britain.

Next we have many teams who will want to make the race so hard so that their riders can arrive in London without having to worry about the sprinters. Here we have a variety of teams and riders, for example Belgium and Tom Boonen who can easily win sprints, Norway with Edvald Boasson Hagen and Alex Kristoff and perhaps Spain with Fran Ventoso and J-J Rojas, both fast finishers who aren’t troubled by climbing. I’ve got an eye on Poland’s Michał Kwiatkowski who is an agressive and fast rider and then we have the pure attackers like Fabian Cancellara, Philippe Gilbert and Sylvain Chavanel. They will hope for a hard race and then wait for a moment’s hesitation on the run to London to get away, hoping the GB team is either fried or dropped. And who would ignore Fabian Cancellara? Close in Beijing and wanting success after a spring campaign ruined by injury, this could be his day.

With less than 150 riders it will make for an odd race, especially since a good share of the field are relatively unknown riders, for example Cuba’s Arnold Alcolea and Omar Hassanin of Syria. I wish them well but the more established pros will hope the field shrinks to the usual core of pros who make a living for most of the year in Europe.

It all makes it hard to call. Can Cavendish stay the distance and cope with the pace? Can his small team control the race? Every other team will want to drop him but nobody wants to commit to working hard from the start, preferring that someone else wastes their energy early.

Also don’t forget the conflict of interest with riders wearing national jerseys who spend the rest of the year working for their pro teams. There could be explicit – if secretive – alliances between some riders, for example will Austria’s Bernhard Eisel stop the habit of a lifetime and ride for himself instead of Cavendish? You’d like to hope so but there can be implicit agreements, for example imagine if Dan Martin and Ramunas Navardauskas get in a breakaway together, if one jumps would the other shut them down, knowing they’re both team mates with Garmin-Barracuda? It’s not just the riders, note the close links between British Cycling and Team Sky, between Australia and Orica-Greenedge and several other teams.

Weather: a mild day with temperatures peaking at 21°C and a light 10km/h breeze from the west, meaning a tailwind on the Box Hill and for the finish too.

TV: the race starts at 10.00am London time and it seems that it will be filmed live and in full but coverage will depend on your local broadcaster. The finish is expected for 4.00pm but could be earlier.

Local rider: Bradley Wiggins grew up in London and today’s route takes in some of the training roads he’d use as a boy.

Local food: London-specific cuisine is rare, dishes like roast beef and fish n’chips aren’t from the capital. It seems pie n’mash and jellied eels top the list and if this isn’t for you, celebrate Britain’s colonial past and cosmopolitan present with a curry washed down by some ale.

Do: think about riding with some latex sealant in your tyres. Because on the narrow roads if a rider punctures they might not come back and will need most of their team to help. The weight penalty is minimal.

Don’t: just turn up and watch the race. The climb of Box Hill is access by ticket only and these are sold out. You can visit other parts of the race of course.

Guide: there’s a guide to all the cycling events at inrng.com/olympics but note the organisers are slow to publish start lists and other data that you’d normally get well in advance of an ordinary bike race.

Startlist