Team GRI Attack Defense West San Diego Legion 10.3 3.4 6.9 East Toronto Arrows 7.4 3 4.4 East NOLA Gold 4.8 2.4 2.4 East RUNY 3.5 -0.1 3.6 West Seattle Seawolves 2.8 4.1 -1.3 East Rugby ATL 1 -0.8 1.8 East New England Free Jacks 0.2 0.9 -1.1 East Old Glory DC -1 -0.7 -0.3 West Utah Warriors -2.5 0 -2.5 West Colorado Raptors -3.5 0.2 -3.7 West Houston Sabercats -7.7 -4.8 -2.9 West Austin Gilgronis -12.2 -7.7 -4.5

(Never heard of the GRI? Check out this introduction)

It was a week of upsets. The GRI was 95% confident that we would have no more than two upsets, but we ended up with four. That means there were huge movements in the rankings by most teams.

The two biggest winners this week were Colorado and Austin, unsurprisingly. They both jumped almost a point for their victories against Toronto and Houston. Colorado benefitted considerably from their defensive performance, while Austin is at their highest point all season. Utah, meanwhile, rose half a point for their upset of the fallen champions, the Seawolves.

The best loser of the weekend was definitely RUNY. Despite not getting the upset, they got a healthy bump for getting close, while San Diego drifted marginally closer to the melee below. The worst losers were obviously Seattle, Toronto, and Houston, who all took big hits of almost a point. Toronto’s loss will likely be ironed out if they play the next few weeks like they played the first few weeks. For Seattle, though, this loss compounds a weeks-long slide in the rankings as the vaunted SeaWall has eroded into a porous pile of rubble. For Houston, there’s just no escaping that they lost to Austin. That, in the eyes of the GRI, is something you just can’t do.

None of the other teams had dramatic movements, even if their games made for good viewing. Old Glory did move up and Atlanta down, but ultimately it was a slight upset by a small margin, so neither moved far. NOLA got a small boost from their handling of the Free Jacks, and consequently the Free Jacks continued their descent from their week one peak.

Next week’s odds

RUNY 61% 39% Seattle Seawolves NE Free Jacks 90% 10% Houston Sabercats Austin Gilgronis 0% 100% San Diego Legion Utah Warriors 18% 82% NOLA Gold Old Glory DC 71% 29% Colorado Raptors Toronto Arrows Bye Rugby ATL

The GRI is again predicting no more than 2 upsets this week with 95% confidence, although there is one fewer game this week. It’s also giving poor Austin a less than 1 in 500 chance of winning at home against the Legion in the biggest mismatch of the season so far. To maintain their current level in the GRI, San Diego will have to win by at least 23 points. This may be the game that finally brings them back below 10 points.

Season record odds after week 5

San Diego now has a 97% chance of winning at least 14 games, which is insane. The Seawolves, conversely, are starting to enter the danger zone for playoff contention. The Sabercats are all but eliminated with a better chance of finishing last in the league than making the playoffs. In the East, the Free Jacks had better start winning soon as they are already a step behind their fellow expansion teams, who are both a step behind the weakest of the top three in the East.