Survey: Obama 'switchers' lean right, fear Tea Party

The Democratic group Third Way did a survey soon after the 2010 election of "droppers" -- people who voted for Obama in 2008 but didn't vote in the midterms; and "switchers" -- Obama voters who cast their ballots for Republicans.

They've returned to the field with those groups, and found various interesting results. First, according to the new survey, the "droppers" are back: "These people are going to be with the president," Third Way's Matt Bennett told me today, noting that only three percent of them told pollsters they would support a Republican. "There's very little effort [needed] as far as persuading them."

Third Way's survey of the "switchers," however, found a more interesting, complicated picture. These are, by definition, swing voters, and the group found that they're -- not surprisingly -- the most conservative people who could have gone with a Democrats, well to Obama's right on an ideological scale. The risk to Obama, the survey finds, is that they share Republican views on central issues like the role of government. The opportunity, the survey finds, is that they aren't fans of the Tea Party, which could push them back into Obama's arms:

Entering 2012, there is a significant ideological gap between Democrats and the switchers. In order to close that gap, Democratic candidates must pull themselves closer to these crucial voters by positioning themselves as growth Democrats and making this election about two competing visions of the future. On the other side, they must also push Republicans away from the switchers by marrying them to the Tea Party.

The switchers are also, the group notes, not in states of personal crisis.

"They are relatively satisfied with their own economic circumstances," said the group's social policy and politics program chief, Lanae Erickson. "But they're deeply pessimistic about the future of the country."

They're also intensely concerned with the deficit, while "the jobs debate is more a barometer for these foks thank it is like a thermometer measuring their own circumstances," she said. They are, per the survey, more likely to support a tax increase to fix the deficit than to satisfy some general sense of "fairness."

You can also check out their full results and polling memo.