The second half of the 2019 NFL season is about to get bumpy for Dolphins fans who are banking on seeing the team go out and acquire the #1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Each Tuesday, ESPN’s Football Power Index updates the likelihood of each NFL team making the playoffs (or in the Dolphins’ case, finishing the tank job) by simulating each of the remaining games on the schedule 10,000 times — with outcomes being based upon statistics and metrics for each of the teams.

And for the past few weeks, the Miami Dolphins have been in the driver’s seat in FPI simulations to finish with the top pick — as of last Tuesday, Miami was considered to have an 89% chance to finish with the worst record in football.

Today’s figure is significantly lighter, as ESPN has finished their update for Week 8. According to ESPN’s Cameron Wolfe, Miami lost 15% odds to claim the top pick from last week to this week.

Draft projection update via ESPN’s FPI: Dolphins now have 73.5% chance at No.1 overall pick with their own selection. A drop from last week because of how competitive they’ve been over last two games. Miami still big favorites. Bengals are 2nd with 15.4% shot at No.1, per FPI. — Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) October 22, 2019

Wolfe credits a one point loss to Washington and a 10 point loss to Buffalo (that should’ve been a 3-point loss) as the big catalyst for Miami’s decreasing odds. With Miami suddenly finding life and an ability to move the football, it dramatically changes their ineptitude and makes it all the more likely the Dolphins steal a few wins along the way and find themselves out of the top-pick.

The Dolphins still have games remaining against a one-win Jets team (twice), a two-win Giants team, the winless Bengals and the two-win Steelers. There’s a lot of season left and with only two 0-16 teams in NFL history, odds are the Dolphins will need to win 2 games to put themselves into any legit danger of missing the top pick. The next hurdle comes next Monday, as the Dolphins face off with the Steelers on Monday Night Football.