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John Locher/Associated Press

Main Event: Welterweights

Conor McGregor (19-3; 7-1 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (19-10; 14-8 UFC)

Irish superstar McGregor tore through his first seven UFC opponents on his way to becoming the promotion's biggest draw and looked to add to his featherweight title with a lightweight bout against then-champion Rafael Dos Anjos last March.

When Dos Anjos pulled out with less than two weeks to go before the fight, the inimitable Diaz stepped into the void and pulled off one of the most shocking upsets in recent memory.

Now the two fighters meet again in a highly anticipated rematch. Their first fight was one of the best of the year by any measure; now McGregor gets the chance for redemption, while Diaz can firmly establish himself as an elite fighter worthy of the biggest-money bouts.

McGregor is a southpaw puncher with a deep array of tricks at his disposal. His crushing left hand is the centerpiece of his game, but how he applies it is open and depends on the opponent.

The Irishman likes to pressure, working his way forward behind an array of front, oblique, side, round and spinning kicks. He uses them to drive his opponent backward and cut off escape angles to one side, either forcing him to move into McGregor's devastating left hand or to step back toward the fence.

Once the opponent's back hits the cage, McGregor unloads with slick head-body punching flurries and left hand after left hand, keeping him stuck on the end of the Irishman's long reach. If the opponent tries to work forward, McGregor cuts a sharp angle and plants a counter left—his best and most technical punch by a wide margin—on the chin.

McGregor is better than he used to be with his lead hand, but it's still a weakness. He mostly probes the distance and occasionally throws a jab, while he's only really comfortable throwing a right hook after the left hand or in a flurry. The occasional leaping right uppercut adds some variety, but the left hand is still his bread and butter.

Defense isn't McGregor's strongest suit. His head movement has improved, but he relies on his length and control of the space of the cage to avoid his opponent's shots. He has always been hittable on his way in and out and especially after he throws the left.

Essentially, the Irishman's striking game is built around bullying smaller orthodox fighters with his size and power. He likes to push them back and keep them on the end of his reach, where he has the freedom to move through the cage while they're stuck on the fence eating his left hand. Fighting a taller southpaw requires substantial adjustments.

The rest of McGregor's game is better than it has gotten credit for. He's a solid defender of takedowns, if not an elite defensive wrestler. Offensively he shoots a beautiful reactive double-leg takedown as his opponent comes forward and has a strong technical command of finishes. The double-overhooks throw in the clinch is another specialty.

As a grappler, McGregor does excellent work from top position. He has a smooth pressure-passing game and lands ground strikes with tremendous force as he maintains control.

His real issues come in scrambles and on his back. He has a bad habit of panicking in transitions, something that has cost him in all three of his losses, and he offers little when forced to work from the guard for extended periods.

Diaz is one of the best pure boxers in MMA, if not the best. The 6'0" southpaw puts his long frame to good use with a punishing, consistent jab and a razor-sharp, snapping cross behind it.

More than his frame or his repertoire of punches, though, Diaz has a deep command of the fundamentals and subtleties of boxing for MMA. It's not just that he throws jabs, but that he throws a number of variations on the jab and mixes up his timing and rhythm. Every time he throws, Diaz moves his feet, and he constantly cuts small angles through the space of the cage.

This makes it difficult both to get inside Diaz's reach in open space and to back him up to the fence, where his reach advantage might be overcome. A constant counter right hook covers his pivots and surprises pressuring opponents as they come in.

Aside from his sheer technical skill, which is substantial and underrated, what makes Diaz special is his pace. He routinely throws 20 to 30 punches in a minute; in the 30 seconds after he buzzed McGregor in the second round of their fight, for example, he threw a staggering 30 strikes. Once he gets into a rhythm, Diaz buries his opponent under the weight of his offensive output.

Diaz isn't unhittable, but it's surprisingly difficult to hit him cleanly. Because of the way he bends his legs and his tendency to pull his head backward, he rolls with many shots and takes away much of the sting even if he doesn't avoid them entirely.

Wrestling has never been Diaz's strong suit, but he's better than advertised, and in the clinch he's a handful. His long frame gives him great leverage, which he uses to hit slick trips and throws and to land a steady stream of short punches and sharp knees.

On the mat, Diaz is a wizard. His guard is one of the most active and dangerous in the sport, combining sweeps with triangle-armbar chains of exceptional technical skill and speed. If he can find his way to top position, he's even more dangerous, with surprisingly dangerous ground strikes combined with silky-smooth passes and a nose for a wide array of submissions.

He's not easy to deal with in transitions either, and scrambling with Diaz is a recipe for either giving up a front headlock choke or allowing him to get to the back.

Betting Odds

McGregor -115, Diaz -105

Prediction

All of the justified hype around McGregor leading into the first fight disguised the fact that on a basic level, this is a tough matchup for him. McGregor relies on his length, his power and his ability to push a quick pace while staying efficient; Diaz is longer, durable enough to eat his shots and works infinitely faster.

Compounding those difficulties is Diaz's far more versatile and educated lead hand. McGregor is a southpaw who relies on his left hand, while Diaz's southpaw jab—not to mention his enormous experience against other elite southpaws—allows him to enforce his longer range.

With that said, this is a winnable matchup for McGregor.

The biggest thing for the Irishman is staying disciplined. He abandoned his kicks, the tool he needed to compete at long range with Diaz, early on in their first meeting in favor of landing the big, fight-ending shot. If he sticks and moves, using his kicks to punish Diaz's lead leg while avoiding the kind of quick-paced brawl Diaz prefers, he can outpoint the American.

The only problem with that scenario is that it requires McGregor to overcome his instincts and fight against his personality. He fights the way he does because he believes in his power, because he likes knocking people out and because, deep down, he's an entertainer who wants to put on a show.

Putting that aside in favor of a smart, disciplined and less entertaining game plan is no easy task, as simple as it might sound on paper. For that reason, the pick is Diaz by decision or late finish.

All betting odds via Odds Shark.

Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.