Orlando Sanpo of Black Velvet shows off an example of custom-made wedding cakes that could see his business double if same-sex marriage is passed. Credit:AFR And then the key line: "I don't want to legislate in haste". Of course he doesn't – if the postal survey returns a verdict of "Yes" – and we will know on November 15 – it is in Bernardi's political interests to drag out the ensuing parliamentary debate for as long as possible. He needs to build his party's profile ahead of next year's state elections – the Australian Conservatives are fielding candidates in the South Australian and Victorian elections, scheduled for March and November respectively. A drawn-out parliamentary fight about protecting religious freedoms and freedom of speech against the rose-wielding lesbian hordes is also good business for the next federal election.

Same sex marriage supporters at the "Straight Lives Matter" rally in Sydney. Credit:AAP Bernardi will not accept the guarantees for religious freedoms written into the private member's bill drafted by Liberal senator Dean Smith. The government has said it will facilitate a private member's bill, without binding its members to vote for it. But crucially, it has not said which private member's bill it will facilitate, which leaves the way open for a rival right-conservative bill. Smith's bill, which is the only one currently on the table, allows exemptions for religious ministers to refuse to marry same-sex couples, and exemptions for any service providers to refuse to cater gay weddings, so long as they can prove a link to a religious body. The case of the conscientiously objecting cake-maker would be covered by this, as long as they had church links (but not if it was just an individual's sentiment, because that would be a breach of anti-discrimination law). It's worth calculating the small section of the Venn diagram of people within the wedding industry who object so vehemently to gay marriage they would turn down custom.

I suspect most of these hypothetical disputes would be covered by the engaged couple taking their business to a florist or celebrant who doesn't disapprove of them, but then, common sense has long since abandoned the same-sex marriage debate. Bernardi is not the only conservative who will seek to keep the debate alive, long past the time when most Australians are thoroughly sick of it. Tony Abbott, who is scheduled to deliver a speech in the US to a Christian foundation called Alliance Defending Freedom, is unlikely to let the matter drop, particularly the freedoms angle. His fellow religious conservatives within the Coalition will also want their imprimatur on the issue, to herald to their constituencies that they didn't go down without a fight. It's handy that the Forced Florist issue is closely connected to another pet cause of the conservative right – the dismantling of anti-discrimination laws and rights protections. Abbott has called for the abolition of the Human Rights Commission altogether.

Given the debate about s18C of the Racial Discrimination Act has fizzled, and no one has defaced any statutes of First Fleeters recently, a new culture war is needed. Turnbull brought on the postal survey because he was in an impossible political situation – he knew the same-sex marriage issue would continue to dog him, and yet he couldn't allow a private member's bill to be debated because of his solemn promise to the right of his party to keep the plebiscite policy. If same-sex marriage is legislated, it will be through the Smith private member's bill, not a government bill. So even though the legalisation of gay marriage will be a landmark social change, a major progressive victory that has occurred on Turnbull's watch, it's uncertain voters will give him full credit for delivering it. That is quite extraordinary when you ponder it, particularly given Turnbull is a long-time advocate of same-sex marriage. Many would say his social liberalism is one of the things that defines his political brand.

What the same-sex marriage debate has done for Turnbull, is weaponise the right-wing which so threatens him - the conservatives who have long dreamt of running grass-roots campaigns and receiving big donations, just as the progressives do with organisations like GetUp! The issue of same-sex marriage, and its dubious corollary, religious freedom, is the perfect vehicle for this. It will have to be prised from their hands. Twitter: @JacquelineMaley Follow Jacqueline Maley on Facebook