An idea came to me the other day when i was designing a scenario for a wargame on my computer. I dont know if any of you have heard of Super Power (called Global Power outside of the US) but it can be interesting for seeing the world from the strategic viewpoint of often ignored nations.

I know this post will be a little long, but I love to put out these scenarios and at least some of you have shown interest in the past, so just this once I wont wait for someone else to start the topic.



I had the game set up true to life, with US forces occupying Afghanistan and Iraq. The goal I set for myself was to militarize over the course of one year and launch an invasion of both neighboring countries as well as Kuwait.

Predictably I lost, but the scenario triggered som thinking and have me the idea that Iran could be a legitimate threat, especially as a pawn working in the interests of a greater cause, such as an secret pact with China.



Iran is very different from Iraq. Unlike Iraq, Iran has the geographic position to deny the US access to the Persian Gulf, as well as the cruise missiles to back it up.

Unlike Iraq, Iran will not be invaded through an open desert, but over a mountain range, or else by amphibious assault.

Unlike Iraq, Iran has an opening to launch a first strike against a large number of US Troops who are not optimally prepared to resist the invasion.

Unlike Iraq, Iran would likely have ballistic missiles capable of attacking the Suez Cannal by the time such a war took place.

In short, Iran could hit America hard and it would probably take 6 months to 1 year for America's retaliation to be prepared.



Phase 1, days 1-30: A barrage of cruise missiles and a few conventionally armed ballistic missiles soften American airpower in Iraq and Afghanistan and destroy key supply depots. A large scale invasion of Iraq follows immediately, in conjunction with a smaller offensive into Afghanistan. Iranian civilian vessels are armed with cruise missiles and surface to air missiles are deployed throughout the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Mediterranean to lay in wait for American reinforcements. Kuwait is to be invaded once American troops in Iraq are eliminated.



Phase 2, days 31-90: Iran blockades the Persian Gulf creating an oil embargo on the United States as well as reduced production over all. China secretly pays for oil in weapons and massive technical assistance with a crash nuclear program intended to between 1 and 5 bombs by years end.

The American buildup of forces in Turkey and Saudi Arabia begins. The American strategy is to make a 3 pronged attack, from Turkey to Iran, through Iraq to Southwest Iran, and across the Gulf into Southeast Iran. An eastern front from Pakistan is not possible because false-flag terrorism from China escalates tensions between Pakistan and India to a critical point.

As US troops move through the Suez Cannal, Iran launches conventional ballistic missiles, damaging the canal system and blocking it with the wreckage of several large ships. The Americans must now take additional weeks to either await clear passage or to pass around Africa.

American or Israeli aircraft attack Iran's ballistic missile sites, taking heavy losses against Chinese-provided radar and air defense systems but destroying many air defenses and Iran's known ballistic missiles.

Iranian sleeper ships take a heavy toll as American ships enter the Red Sea. Although Paul Van Ripper's use of this tactic in a wargame before Iraq has increased force protection and softened the effectiveness of this tactic, the Americans do not truly expect such a large scale attack so far from Iran. The attack kills up to 20,000 troops and 200 pieces of hardware. Although not enough to stop the attack, it forces up to 1 month of delay as additonal troops and equipment are sent.



Phase 3, days 91-150: Although American forces in Turkey are assembling on schedule, US forces bound for Saudi Arabia have been heavily delayed and have taken heavy losses. Iran makes regular probing attacks on the Turkish border, supported by cruise missiles and gas attacks. Incindiary munitions delivered by cruise missiles take a heavy toll on Ankara and Incirlik. Turkish forces demand an active role in the war now and are moved to the border to prepare for their part in the invasion of occupied Iraq.

While American forces in Saudi Arabia are understrength, Iran invades. They take heavy losses but are successful and capture a small amount of undamaged US hardware, most of which is secretly sold to China for reverse-engineering.



Phase 4A, day 151: Iran has obtained nuclear weapons and reveals this to the world. Iran offers peace terms



Phase 4B, days 151-180: Iran does not yet posses nuclear weapons, or posses them yet believes they can defeat America in battle. With the Saudi Theather closed and the sudden willingness of the Turks to fight, the American attack into Iraq and Northern Iran begins early. Iranian troops in Southern Iraq and Saudi Arabia withdraw into Iran, destroying oil wells as they go. The Iranians concentrate their defense in the mountains of Western Iran.

This is the first time since Korea that an organized and professional foe has resisted America on constricted and unfavorable terrain. The Iranian defenses easily deflect the initial attack through the mountains. America quickly secures Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and extends the lines of battle along the entire Zagros range, probing for a weakness. At this point there is yet another opportunity for Iran to force peace before meeting with disaster, if they have the bomb.



Phase 5, days 181-270: Despite heavy losses, the Iranians hold the front line for the first month or two by concentrating defenses on favorable terrain, reinforcing their positions adequately, and emplacing reserves to counter-attack any breakthrough. Eventually an American breakthrough destabalizes the front. The war will be over within a month of this breakthrough unless Iran has nuclear weapons with which they can force peace.



Phase 6- the unthinkable- days 271-278: Iran announces their possesion of nuclear weapons and that they are prepared to launch on Turkey and perhaps other NATO countries. They use tactical nuclear weapons to stop the American breakthrough and demand a peace settlement immediately, or else they will nuke remaining US positions and launch on Incirlik, Ankara, and Istanbul, Turkey- as well as Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Beer-Sheva, Israel. China immediately notifies the US state department that this crisis will not be an excuse for them to make a nuclear conquest of the arab world, and that "there is potential for escalation"...

God only knows what would happen.



Conclusion: Although Iran is no match for the US Military, their geography is favorable if they can develop the proper resources to take full advantage of it.

In order to upset the United States, Iran must do the following:

1. Produce a sizeable quantity of Medium Range Ballistic Missiles.

2. Acquire a VERY large quantity of cruise missiles and equip them with sufficient guidance systems to be used on a broad scale against advancing ground forces as well as naval threats.

3. Acquire sufficient sonar and torpedo technology/hardware to control the Straight of Hormuz (Persian Gulf) and Northern Arabian Sea in the face of US Submarine threats.

4. Enter into agreements with modernized militaries to train first-rate officers and improve the tactical ability of their military at all levels, especially small unit level.

5. Acquire a large volume of modern air defenses and at least a small number of modern aircraft and well trained pilots to ensure competent defense of their own airspace.

6. Develop the range and precision of their artillery to exploit their Western mountains to the fullest extent as a defensive asset.

7. Secretly complete or acquire at least 3 nuclear weapons, and prepare themselves to produce more within 6 months of initial hostilities against any major power.

8. Make arrangements to sign a strategic alliance with China and North Korea immediately at the end of the war.



It is my opinion that with extensive military spending and cooperation with China, N. Korea, Pakistan, and perhaps Russia, Iran could be prepared for hostilities against the United States within 1 year at the earliest and 2-3 years at the most.

It would be impossible to conceal development on this level, but the nations involve could argue in the UN that they are merely insuring their own sovreignity in the face of US Aggression.

Niether US nor Iraqi citizens will stand for the deployment of troops necessary to counter this scenario by non-diplomatic means prior to the outbreak of Iranian aggression.



If Iran had the means to negotiate a peace terms, using nuclear weapons as leverage after fighting well against neighbors and perhaps US troops (although Iran will probably want nukes going in, and will sue for peace before the American invasion) then I believe the terms would come out something like this:



1. Iran could advance their western border, perhaps even as far as the Tigris, taking control of much Iraqi oil and Shiite areas, with the US forced to acknowledge this as reparations for the US-backed Iraq-Iran war. US military forces in Iraq would be strictly capped by the treaty.



2. Kuwaiti independence would be restored under their Emir and minor reparations paid to Kuwait. The invasion of Kuwait would be appologized for as necessary to denying America a military base against Iran. The number of US Military forces based in Kuwait would be strictly capped by the treaty.



3. Afghan independence would be restored with new elections to be monitored by only UN security council members who did not participate in the war (France, Russia, China). American troops would be barred from Afghanistan by the treaty and required to pay "aid money" (reparations) in acknowledgement of their responsibility after the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. Civil war would likely result, with Pakistani and Iranian intelligence assisting a new Taliban regime.



4. Saudi Independence would be restored with UN monitored elections- member of the House of Saud having been executed as American puppets during the war. The election of a somewhat anti-American regime would be likely. American military presence in this holy land would be entirely banned by treaty.



5. A de-militarized zone in Eastern Turkey and Northern Iran would be established, and US military presence in Turkey would be strictly capped by treaty.



6. Iran would sign (and probably violate) treaties ensuring free access to the Persian Gulf.



This resolution is devastating for American oil supplies and foreign policy in the Gulf. America would be forced to greatly reduce its energy consumption while accelerating its transition away from an oil economy (which already must end soon due to Peak Oil).

After American troops had withdrawn from the region, a nuclear attack against Iran's nuclear weapons would be almost certain and followed by a return to war unless Iran signs a strategic alliance with China.