Democratic lawmakers Monday announced legislation that would enable millions of California students to graduate from public universities without crushing levels of student debt.

It may be difficult, however, to get all of their plans implemented absent a favorable change in the state’s fortunes.

Assembly Democrats, including Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Paramount, held a media conference in Sacramento to announce their plan, which calls for the creation of a new scholarship program that, according to proponents, may cost the state $1.6 billion during its first year, if completely implemented in time to benefit students during the 2018-19 school year.

Tuition increases

The legislation comes at a time when California students attending the state’s public universities are facing greater tuition costs. University of California leaders have already approved tuition hikes, and their counterparts in charge of the Cal State University system may adopt a similar plan when they meet next week in Long Beach.

In fact, student government representatives from CSU campuses spent Monday in Sacramento lobbying legislators in hopes of blocking potential tuition increases.

“I had so many students who were concerned about a potential tuition increase,” said Gabriel Smith, a Cal Poly Pomona senior majoring in political science and economics who works two part-time jobs. “Our students would have to work an additional 10 hours atop their current part-time work just to afford” Gov. Brown’s proposed CSU budget cuts.

Legislators said the state government needs to reduce California students’ debt burdens or risk greater income inequality and a shortage of future degree holders.

“I always tell the story about how I somehow managed to end up getting three degrees, and still owning only about $5,000 in total college debt,” Rendon said during Monday’s event.

As of 2015, 54 percent of California college graduates accumulated debt, according to The Institute for College Success and Access. The average debt burden was about $22,000.

It remains to be seen, however, whether Gov. Jerry Brown — who has sought to avoid big spending increases amid a projected state deficit — will support the plan.

Preserving, expanding student aid

Assemblyman Jay Obernolte, R-Hesperia, said he is interested working with majority Democrats to reduce student debt burdens. California “must do a better job prioritizing higher education funding,” he said Monday. Obernolte is an alternate member of the subcommittee concerned with education budgets.

Democrats’ proposal consists of four key elements that are intended to benefit future students attending the UC, CSU and California Community Colleges:

• California residents enrolling as full-time students would be able attend a community college tuition-free for one year.

• Increasing the amount of money available to community college students who use Success Grant benefits to pay for living expenses.

• Creating a new “Degrees Not Debt” scholarship to help UC and CSU students cover living costs

• Leave Gov. Jerry Brown’s proposal to save money by eliminating the state’s Middle Class Scholarship program out of the final budget that’s in development for the next fiscal year.

“Any financial help for students would be helpful,” said Yijia Liu, 22, a senior at UC Riverside. “What student would say no?”

The costs of college

The plan’s supporters estimate some 390,000 California students could benefit from the new Degrees Not Debt scholarships. They project differing amounts as to how much a student may receive, depending on family incomes and whether a UC or CSU student is eligible for other benefits, such as Cal Grants or the Middle Class Scholarship.

Cal State Fullerton student Vanessa Moreno, 22, who uses scholarships, grants and money from a part-time job to pay for school, had mixed feelings on the plan because of the assumption that parents will help students.

“They don’t help me financially,” she said of her parents. “I have to make sure I cover all my other expenses.”

The legislators say students who receive scholarships will have to do their part.

“We’re going to ask them to do their fair share by working 15 hours a week,” Assemblyman Kevin McCarty, D-Sacramento, said Monday.

The Institute for College Access & Success, an Oakland advocacy group sending a representative to testify at Tuesday’s committee hearing, has already critiqued Democrats’ plan.

According to that group’s estimates, a UC student whose family has an income of $100,000 or greater could receive about $15,000 in aid through the proposed scholarship program. The institute’s findings show community college students can actually pay greater out-of-pocket costs than those attending UC or CSU schools.

“California has major problems with college affordability and completion, but neither will be solved by the ‘Degrees Not Debt Scholarship’ proposal,” Institute vice president Debbie Cochrane wrote in a statement Monday. “We hope that legislators will commit to retooling the proposal so that it addresses the realities facing California’s low- and truly middle-income college students.”

Lobbying, compromises and budget politics

Two points from Democrats’ new proposal are aimed at community college students. Besides offering new incoming students a tuition-free year, lawmakers want to increase Student Success Grant awards available to community college enrollees from $600 per year to about $1,380, according to the agenda for Tuesday’s subcommittee hearing.

California Community College Chancellor Eloy Ortiz Oakley said he learned of Democrats’ plan late Friday and looks forward to working with legislators on the issue. He also shared the Cochrane’s views on the state needing to do more to help financially-burdened community college students.

“We feel the California Community College students have unmet needs,” he said.

A point of tension between lawmakers and the governor’s office is whether the state is headed into recession. The first version of the governor’s budget proposal forecasts a $1.6 million deficit, although the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office has reported that the administration’s math may be too pessimistic in predicting future tax revenues.

If the LAO is correct, the state could have $2.8 billion in discretionary reserves at the end of fiscal 2017-18.

Proponents of the new scholarship plan tend toward a rosier view of Sacramento’s finances and say the Degrees Not Debt scholarship could be phased in over a half decade without messing up state government’s budget.

California Department of Finance spokesman H.D. Palmer, in reaction to the new proposal, advised lawmakers to consider not only the prospect of next year’s revenues being greater than expectations, but the possibility that revenues may fall below administration forecasts.

“It’s certainly a laudable goal, but the question is how do you afford it? How do you pay for it?,” Palmer said of the program.

Replying to a question on Monday, McCarty acknowledged the new scholarship program could be delayed if necessary.

The governor’s office is scheduled to release its revised budget proposal in May.

Assemblyman Patrick O’Donnell, D-Long Beach, anticipates some give and take after legislators get their turn finish the budget. A former teacher, O’Donnell said he agrees with the objective of improving college affordability but also sees funding needs for younger students.

“We need to ensure that the state of California lives within in its means and continues a focus on the heavily unfunded K-12 system,” he said.

Staff writers Beau Yarbrough, Imran Ghouri and Shane Newell contributed to this report.