Misery Index Week 9: Angst in Athens

Dan Wolken | USA TODAY Sports

We’re going to learn more about Georgia in the next month than we have in the last several years.

Not about the football team, because it is basically irrelevant at this point. Not about Mark Richt, who has sat in the head coach’s chair since 2001, coached 192 games, given thousands of interviews and said countless times that his wins and losses will not define him.

Not even about athletics director Greg McGarity, who will essentially have to carry out the will of the people who pay the bills at Georgia and a relatively new school president who, by all accounts, likes winning football games more than his predecessor.

No, what we’re going to learn about Georgia in the next month is bigger than all of that. Because if its fan base and administration could deign to lower their noses from the air and take a peek at reality, they would see a program that is stale and no longer taken seriously as a Southeastern Conference power. The question is whether anyone there really cares.

You get the feeling that some folks at Georgia have become so intoxicated with the “Georgia Way,” that they are too comfortable being comfortable, to even recognize what is happening.

And so for all the heat and misery that is about to come Richt’s way following a pathetic 27-3 loss to Florida, the idea that his departure is somehow a foregone conclusion right now is just simply not true. If Georgia has proved anything, it’s a willingness to hang onto the warm embrace of its self-congratulatory values until the bitter end.

Which brings us to the most frustrating thing about engaging Georgia fans in conversations about their program. They can never take place without acknowledging: 1) Richt’s qualities as a human being and 2) His record between 2001-08.

It is maddening and it is self-destructive, but it is the excuse-making reality in which they live. Moreover, Georgia fans frequently default to the notion that Georgia won’t able to hire a better coach than Richt or talk about recruits that are on the way as defense of the status quo.

Let’s deconstruct those two points.

First, the idea that Georgia would end up like post-Phil Fulmer Tennessee is not a very compelling argument for the Richt era. After all, Tennessee’s mistake wasn’t firing Fulmer; it was making hires subsequently that didn’t work out. Nobody is immune from a bad hire, and Georgia wouldn’t be either, but this is a top-10 and arguably top-five job in the country with incredible resources that would attract a very good pool of candidates.

Second, the recruiting angle is pure Pollyanna. Recruiting has not been, and will never be, a problem for Georgia as long as the campus is located an hour from the Atlanta metro area, which arguably has become the No. 2 talent-producing city in the country behind Miami. Jacob Eason, a five-star quarterback recruit from Washington who verbally committed to Georgia more than a year ago, might be great. But no program — and particularly a brand as powerful as Georgia — should decide its future course based on an 18-year-old who has never played a down of college football.

Nor should anyone evaluate where the Georgia program is right now based on Richt’s religious convictions or what he accomplished when recruits were 10 years old. It is an absolute fact that Georgia had six top-10 finishes in Richt’s first eight seasons; it goes on his record the same way we count Mack Brown’s great years at Texas and Bobby Bowden’s unparalleled string of top-five seasons.

But eventually, those trends fade and new ones develop. And the trend at Georgia is unmistakeable. In the last seven years, Georgia has had one outstanding season (2012) with a team that was good enough to win a national championship but fell just short. The rest have been some combination of luckless and lackluster, but it is very clear now that 2012 is the outlier and rest are more the norm.

Georgia has not been relevant in a national championship discussion in any of the last three seasons, hasn’t won an SEC title since 2005 and doesn’t have the energy or the mojo of regional rivals such as Florida, Tennessee or Clemson, much less the ability to go head-to-head with Alabama.

If that’s not obvious to the decision-makers at Georgia now, when will it ever be? Georgia isn’t traditionally the kind of place that likes blood on its hands, lest people think it takes football too seriously. What Georgia may or may not realize, though, is that people these days are more likely not to think about their program at all.

(Disclaimer: This isn't a ranking of worst teams, worst losses or coaches whose jobs are in the most jeopardy. This is simply a measurement of a fan base's knee-jerk reaction to what they last saw. The way in which a team won or lost, expectations vis-à-vis program trajectory and traditional inferiority complex of fan base all factor into this ranking.)

(Disclaimer No. 2: By virtue of their decision to make coaching changes, Illinois, Maryland, South Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, UCF, Southern Cal and North Texas are hereby excluded from this and future editions of the Misery Index, as fans can look forward to a new regime taking hold in 2016.)

1. Georgia: How in the world did Georgia recruit so poorly at quarterback the last few years that it was reduced to starting Faton Bauta at quarterback in its big rivalry game after he had spent the entire season at No. 3 on the depth chart?

One reason may be a short drive up Interstate 85. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, who grew up 40 miles from Athens in Gainesville, Ga., is putting himself in the Heisman Trophy conversation, leading a top-five team and proving every week to be a special talent. And yet Georgia was never really a factor in his recruitment, largely because of Richt’s strict belief in running a pro-style system.

While Clemson identified Watson early and worked tirelessly to get his commitment, Georgia slow-played him and was never really a factor. On Jan. 29, 2013, Watson Tweeted the following: “Mark Richt came by yesterday. Ha.” He’s probably still laughing.

Look, everybody misses in recruiting. But that was pretty big one for Georgia given the proximity and the massive quarterback hole the Bulldogs are currently dealing with. And regardless of Watson, you can’t help but think if Richt was a little less rigid in his offensive philosophy that Georgia actually could have found a competent bandage at quarterback the last couple of seasons.

It is undeniably more difficult in 2015 to find a good pro-style quarterback than a great athlete who can run a spread offense. Heck, just look at Florida. The Gators’ offense could have been considered a Federal disaster area last season, but Jim McElwain has worked with the personnel he inherited to fashion a system that can generate some points. It’s called good coaching.

This isn’t the Florida offense he wants or the Florida offense it’s going to be once he gets a couple of recruiting classes in there, but it’s good enough right now to win the SEC East. There is a large difference between the two programs right now, and that should be very alarming to Georgia fans. The idea this team, with this amount of talent, has gone three consecutive years without winning the East in this weakened state is an absolute crime.

2. Nebraska: When athletics director Shawn Eichorst dismissed Bo Pelini, it sent a message that was easy for fans to get behind. Firing a guy who consistently churned out 9-4 seasons at least showed ambition, showed that Nebraska wasn’t the kind of place willing to settle for being good but not good enough to compete for championships.

But when Eichorst hired Mike Riley, it sent a different message. It signaled that Eichorst didn’t view Bo’s coaching as the problem but rather his personality. It is impossible to argue otherwise because there is nothing in Riley’s history at Oregon State to indicate that he was a better college football coach than Pelini. The only place Nebraska clearly upgraded with Riley was in being easy to work with and genial in his handling of the more public, less desirable parts of the job.

But how much does that really matter? Though it’s hard to write off a coaching hire as a complete failure nine games in, Nebraska has big issues that should at least make the people in charge consider whether they made a mistake that needs to be corrected. Nebraska has been unlucky this season, to be sure, but it also does not look like a well-coached or highly motivated team. There have been coaching mistakes, lack of buy-in and injuries.

It all culminated with a 55-45 loss at Purdue, dropping the Huskers to 3-6. Now they will need two big upsets — against Michigan State and Iowa — just to get bowl eligible. And really, it’s worse than that. Purdue came into the game 2-26 against FBS opponents under Darrell Hazell with just one Big Ten victory last season vs. Illinois. But Nebraska made Purdue look like Baylor and trailed 42-16 entering the fourth quarter.

There will no doubt be revisionist history about Pelini and what kind of program he left, but it’s hard to come up with a legitimate excuse for this kind of performance. And it puts a big spotlight on Eichorst, who fired a fairly successful coach and replaced him with one who has so far been little more than a nice guy.

3. Duke: Is it better or worse to have a legitimate officiating gripe when you lose in heartbreaking fashion? On one hand, Duke fans will always have the ACC office to blame for its 30-27 loss to Miami. The final sequence was an officiating debacle of the highest order, from the flag for an illegal block that the referees picked up to a seemingly clear moment during one of Miami’s eight laterals when a knee was down before the ball was tossed.

The ACC acknowledged the mistake Sunday and suspended the crew for two games.Then again, that doesn’t really make the result any easier to take given that it could cost Duke a spot in the ACC Championship Game. But there is also another way to look at the game. Duke was outplayed at home for 3 1/2 quarters, needing not only a miracle comeback but a very fortunate (and probably blown) call to take the lead with six seconds left.

With no timeouts remaining, Duke called a quarterback sneak from the 1 yard line, which means it would be extremely difficult if not impossible to get another play off had it failed. Though officials called it a touchdown on the field and replay upheld it, the Misery Index did not see a definitive video angle that showed Duke quarterback Thomas Sirk actually breaking the plane of the end zone.

It probably should have been game over right there. Heck, even a few plays before that Duke was the beneficiary of some questionable pass interference penalties that put the Blue Devils in position to score. So the gripes can go both ways, but this game will only be remembered a dozen years from now for the crazy kickoff return. And that’s going to be a tough one for Duke fans to get over.

4. Texas: So now we know. There was no corner turned by the Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry; it was simply a moment in time when a mediocre team played above itself and pulled a shocking upset the way a team of 18- to 22-year-olds is capable of doing from time to time.

Beating Oklahoma 24-17 with Charlie Strong being carried off the field by his players is the outlier in his Texas tenure. Saturday’s 24-0 loss at Iowa State may be an outlier as well, with reality falling somewhere in the middle. But the ability to lose that game while looking so uncompetitive against one of the Big 12’s worst teams is highly alarming at this stage of the game.

Texas’ offense is just flat broken, accounting for 204 total yards in Ames, and its defense isn’t so hot either. Now 3-5 with loseable games still remaining against Baylor, Texas Tech and West Virginia, Strong would be wise not to laugh off questions about his interest in the Miami job.

Several highly connected people in the coaching industry believe that Miami will make overtures to Strong and that he would be willing to listen for a number of reasons including his family’s comfort level in Austin and his recruiting ties in South Florida. But it’s hard to give up a $5 million per year job for one that doesn’t pay as much. Will Miami be able to find enough money to attract Strong’s interest? Stay tuned.

5. Rutgers: The good news at this stage of the season is that the only embarrassing headlines for the last few weeks have been related to the football team’s performance. Compared to attempted academic fraud by the head coach and players getting arrested for serious crimes, getting blown out by Ohio State and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks isn’t such a big deal.

But outside of Virginia, this feels like the most inevitable coaching change of the year. Kyle Flood is overmatched in the Big Ten and has been outscored 108-34 by the three teams that matter in Rutgers’ division (Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State) with Michigan still to come. Add Saturday’s 48-10 loss to Wisconsin on top of it and you see what kind of uphill climb this program faces to be relevant in the league.

It might — might — be worth giving Flood one more shot if things were going well off the field. But with that part of the program also in disarray, there is really no choice but to make a move after this season and figure out who can make Rutgers competitive in the Big Ten. It won’t be easy.

6. Minnesota: This was a really rough week for the Gophers. Jerry Kill’s sudden retirement because of health issues is a big blow to the momentum Minnesota had established, and the stakes are going to be very high for the decision on his replacement.

Success at a place like Minnesota is always a very fragile thing, and if you don’t make the right move the program can fall apart very quickly. That’s why the Misery Index would not be surprised in the least if Minnesota went in-house for both its upcoming athletics director and head coaching hires.

We are told interim athletics director Beth Goetz is a legitimate candidate to get the job full-time and that interim coach Tracy Claeys is the favorite to succeed Kill on a permanent basis. On the other hand, Claeys may not have helped his cause Saturday in a 29-26 loss to Michigan. Though the Gophers played an inspired game to put themselves in position to win, they botched the finish.

Minnesota got to the 1 yard line in the final minute but wasted too much time before getting off the next play and only got two cracks at the end zone when it could have had three. Minnesota then went for the win instead of overtime with two seconds left and got stuffed on a quarterback sneak, providing a gut-punch ending to a really bad week for Minnesota fans.

7. Arizona: This is not such a fun time for the Wildcats. They’ve been injured and out of rhythm all season, not to mention overmatched against good teams. Arizona is 5-4, but none of the wins are of the high-quality variety. Saturday’s 49-3 loss at Washington was a low point.

The more interesting subplot, though, is the future of Rich Rodriguez. The Misery Index has reason to believe he would prefer to head back to the Eastern time zone, and plenty of jobs in his wheelhouse are going to be open. South Carolina, Miami and Virginia Tech would all be very good fits for Rodriguez, and he will absolutely have options. Arizona athletics director Greg Byrne would prefer not to lose his coach, who is 31-18 at a basketball-oriented school and won the Pac 12 South last season.

Arizona is investing in football, and Rodriguez’s reported salary will be augmented by a booster-funded stock deal that could bring his annual package to around $4 million. But there’s also an underlying sense that Rodriguez has topped out in Tucson playing in a very tough division and that this may be a good time to try a new opportunity.

8. West Virginia: Let’s cut the fluff. The next two weeks are going to be crucial in the direction this program takes. After four consecutive losses to the top teams in the Big 12 — three of them by lopsided margins — head coach Dana Holgorsen is on the hot seat. The Mountaineers don’t seem to be making a ton of progress in their Big 12 transition, and new athletics director Shane Lyons probably wouldn’t get much pushback if he decided to make a change.

However, the schedule is set up for West Virginia to finish strong, and an 8-4 season might be enough to bring Holgorsen back. That’s why it’s crucial for the Mountaineers to take advantage of home games against Texas Tech and Texas the next two weeks. West Virginia fans already are pretty unhappy with the state of the program, but another loss could send them over the edge.

9. Arizona State: This appears to be one of those seasons where every 50-50 call goes the wrong way, every gamble turns up snake eyes and every momentum-changing opportunity goes unfulfilled. It happens. But the Sun Devils are undoubtedly a big disappointment at 4-4, and it’s too late at this point to reverse the narrative.

They had an opportunity last Thursday night against Oregon but lost 61-55 in triple overtime as bad luck, questionable calls and untimely turnovers conspired to get them beat despite 742 yards of offense. This was supposed to be “THE YEAR” for the Sun Devils, but now it’s just a forgettable year that will likely go down as Todd Graham’s worst since coming to Tempe.

10. Auburn: There is no more shock factor in Auburn losing SEC games, but it is absolutely worth acknowledging that the Tigers are 1-7 in the league over the last calendar year. And with Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama coming up to finish the season, you could have a scenario where Gus Malzahn goes into 2016 on one of the worst runs in recent memory.

Just a few months ago, Auburn was being celebrated as the SEC preseason favorite with lots of momentum in recruiting, exciting new staff hires and huge facility investment. Of course, the irony of all ironies is that hiring Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator has not nearly yielded as good results to this point as North Carolina hiring former Auburn coach Gene Chizik for the same position.

And now Malzahn is in a similar situation to the one that got Chizik fired at the end of 2012. Malzahn is not going to suffer the same fate because there is too much invested in making this work, but it will be a very, very long and unpleasant offseason if 4-4 Auburn can’t show some signs of life in the last month of the season.

Honorable mention (Miserable, but not miserable enough): Colorado, Boston College, Texas Tech. Cal, Wake Forest, Wyoming, Kansas

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