While writing this comment on reddit I came up with an interesting question that I think might be a useful way of thinking about programming languages. What percentage of single non-whitespace characters in your source code could be changed to a different character such that the change would pass your CI build system but would result in a runtime bug? Let's call this the software fragility number because I think that metric gives a potentially useful measure of how bug prone your software is.

At the end of the day software is a mountain of bytes and you're trying to get them into a particular configuration. Whether you're writing a new app from scratch, fixing bugs, or adding new features, the number of bytes of source code you have (similar to LOC, SLOC, or maybe the compressed number of bytes) is rough indication of the complexity of your project. If we model programmer actions as random byte mutations over all of a project's source and we're trying to predict the project's defect rate this software fragility number is exactly the thing we need to know.

Now I'm sure many people will be quick to point out that this random mutation model is not accurate. Of course that's true. But I would argue that in this way it's similar to the efficient markets hypothesis in finance. Real world markets are obviously not efficient (Google didn't become $26 billion less valuable because the UK voted for brexit). But the efficient markets model is still really useful--and good luck finding a better one that everybody will agree on.

What this model lacks in real world fidelity, it makes up for in practicality. We can actually build an automated system to calculate a reasonable approximation of the fragility number. All that has to be done is take a project, randomly mutate a character, run the project's whole CI build, and see if the result fails the build. Repeat this for every non-whitespace character in the project and count how many characters pass the build. Since the character was generated at random, I think it's reasonable to assume that any mutation that passes the build is almost definitely a bug.

Performing this process for every character in a large project would obviously require a lot of CPU time. We could make this more tractable by picking characters at random to mutate. Repeat this until you have done it for a large enough number of characters and then see what percentage of them made it through the build. Alternatively, instead of choosing random characters you could choose whole modules at random to get more uniform coverage over different parts of the language's grammar. There are probably a number of different algorithms that could be tried for picking random subsets of characters to test. Similar to numerical approximation algorithms such as Newton's method, any of these algorithms could track the convergence of the estimate and stop when the value gets to a sufficient level of stability.

Now let's investigate actual fragility numbers for some simple bits of example code to see how this notion behaves. First let's look at some JavaScript examples.

It's worth noting that comment characters should not be allowed to be chosen for mutation since they obviously don't affect the correctness of the program. So the comments you see here have not been included in the calculations. Fragile characters are highlighted in orange.

// Fragility 12 / 48 = 0.25 function f ( n ) { if ( n < 2 ) return 1 ; else return n * f ( n-1 ); }

// Fragility 14 / 56 = 0.25 function g ( n ) { var p = 1 ; for (var i = 2 ; i < = n ; i ++ ) { p * = i ; } return p ; }

First I should say that I didn't write an actual program to calculate these. I just eyeballed it and thought about what things would fail. I easily could have made mistakes here. In some cases it may even be subjective, so I'm open to corrections or different views.

Since JavaScript is not statically typed, every character of every identifier is fragile--mutating them will not cause a build error because there isn't much of a build. JavaScript won't complain, you'll just start getting undefined values. If you've done a signifciant amount of JavaScript development, you've almost definitely encountered bugs from mistyped identifier names like this. I think it's mildly interesting that the recursive and iterative formulations if this function both have the same fragility. I expected them to be different. But maybe that's just luck.

Numerical constants as well as comparison and arithmetic operators will also cause runtime bugs. These, however, are more debatable because if you use the random procedure I outlined above, you'll probably get a build failure because the character would have probably changed to something syntactically incorrect. In my experience, it semes like when you mistype an alpha character, it's likely that the wrong character will also be an alpha character. The same seems to be true for the classes of numeric characters as well as symbols. The method I'm proposing is that the random mutation should preserve the character class. Alpha characters should remain alpha, numeric should remain numeric, and symbols should remain symbols. In fact, my original intuition goes even further than that by only replacing comparison operators with other comparison operators--you want to maximize the chance that new mutated character will cause a successful build so the metric will give you a worst-case estimate of fragility. There's certainly room for research into what patterns tend come up in the real world and other algorithms that might describe that better.

Now let's go to the other end of the programming language spectrum and see what the fragility number might look like for Haskell.

// Fragility 7 / 38 = 0.18 f :: Int -> Int f n | n < 2 = 1 | otherwise = n * f (n -1 )

Haskell's much more substantial compile time checks mean that mutations to identifier names can't cause bugs in this example. The fragile characters here are clearly essential parts of the algorithm we're implementing. Maybe we could relate this idea to information theory and think of it as an idea of how much information is contained in the algorithm.

One interesting thing to note here is the effect of the length of identifier names on the fragility number. In JavaScript, long identifier names will increase the fragility because all identifier characters can be mutated and will cause a bug. But in Haskell, since identifier characters are not fragile, longer names will lower the fragility score. Choosing to use single character identifier names everywhere makes these Haskell fragility numbers the worst case and makes JavaScript fragility numbers the best case.

Another point is that since I've used single letter identifier names it is possible for a random identifier mutation in Haskell to not cause a build failure but still cause a bug. Take for instance a function that takes two Int parameters x and y. If y was mutated to x, the program would still compile, but it would cause a bug. My set of highlighted fragile characters above does not take this into account because it's trivially avoidable by using longer identifier names. Maybe this is an argument against one letter identifier names, something that Haskell gets criticism for.

Here's the snippet of Haskell code I was talking about in the above reddit comment that got me thinking about all this in the first place:

// Fragility 31 / 277 = 0.11 data MetadataInfo = MetadataInfo { title :: Text , description :: Text } pageMetadataWidget :: MonadWidget t m => Dynamic t MetadataInfo -> m () pageMetadataWidget i = do el " title " $ dynText $ title i elDynAttr " meta " (mkDescAttrs . description i) blank where mkDescAttrs desc = " name " =: " description " <> " content " =: desc

In this snippet, the fragility number is probably close to 31 characters--the number of characters in string literals. This is out of a total of 277 non-whitespace characters, so the software fragility number for this bit of code is 11%. This half the fragility of the JS code we saw above! And as I've pointed out, larger real world JS examples are likely to have even higher fragility. I'm not sure how much we can conclude about the actual ratios of these fragility numbers, but at the very least it matches my experience that JS programs are significantly more buggy than Haskell programs.

The TDD people are probably thinking that my JS examples aren't very realistic because none of them have tests, and that tests would catch most of the identifier name mutations, bringing the fragility down closer to Haskell territory. It is true that tests will probably catch some of these things. But you have to write code to make that happen! It doesn't happen by default. Also, you need to take into account the fact that the tests themselves will have some fragility. Tests require time and effort to maintain. This is an area where this notion of the fragility number becomes less accurate. I suspect that since the metric only considers single character mutations it will underestimate the fragility of tests since mutating single characters in tests will automatically cause a build failure.

There seems to be a slightly paradoxical relationship between the fragility number and DRY. Imagine our above JS factorial functions had a test that completely reimplemented factorial and then tried a bunch of random values Quickcheck-style. This would yield a fragility number of zero! Any single character change in the code would cause a test failure. And any single character change in the tests would also cause a test failure. Single character changes can no longer classified fragile because we've violated DRY. You might say that the test suite shouldn't reimplement algorithm--you should just specific cases like f(5) == 120 . But in an information theory sense this is still violating DRY.

Does this mean that the fragility number is not very useful? Maybe. I don't know. But I don't think it means that we should just throw away the idea. Maybe we should just keep in mind that this particular formulation doesn't have much to tell us about the fragility more complex coordinated multi-character changes. I could see the usefulness of this metric going either way. It could simplify down to something not very profound. Or it could be that measurements of the fragility of real world software projects end up revealing some interesting insights that are not immediately obvious even from my analysis here.

Whatever the usefulness of this fragility metric, I think the concept gets is thinking about software defects in a different way than we might be used to. If it turns out that my single character mutation model isn't very useful, perhaps the extension to multi-character changes could be useful. Hopefully this will inspire more people to think about these issues and play with the ideas in a way that will help us progress towards more reliable software and tools to build it with.

EDIT: Unsurprisingly, I'm not the first person to have thought of this. It looks like it's commonly known as mutation testing. That Wikipedia article makes it sound like mutation testing is commonly thought of as a way to assess your project's test suite. I'm particularly interested in what it might tell us about programming languages...i.e. how much "testing" we get out of the box because of our choice of programming language and implementation.