ISLAMABAD: Noting that the fragmentation of troubled Arab states, the ‘death’ of minorities, and the rise of sectarianism in the Muslim world were the primary challenges facing the Middle East, political analyst Ahmed Rashid said on Friday that no Muslim leader had the guts to take a stand against these menaces.

“The Shia-Sunni rivalry is something that no leader in the Muslim world is willing to tackle. No Muslim leader is willing to stand up today against the kind of killing and sectarianism that is going on today,” he said, in a reference to the tactics of the self-styled Islamic State (IS).

Speaking to former foreign secretary Riaz Khokhar at a session entitled ‘Jihad and Descent into Chaos’, Mr Rashid lamented that, “non-Muslims have lived in the Middle East for thousands of years, longer than Muslims. No Muslim country in all of history has been 100pc Muslim, they have always had minorities living amongst them. But today we are seeing the end of this plurality.”

Making a few predictions about what may happen in the Middle East in the coming years, Mr Rashid said the region would see “more fragmentation but no reconstitution” of Syria, Iraq and even Yemen.

Ahmed Rashid proposes military solution to IS problem; says Islamabad’s policy on India amounts to ‘blackmailing other countries’

“There are now five or six failed states in the Arab world... and the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) has failed to get involved to foster any kind of solution, which is a miserable outcome for the Arab world,” he said.

The former foreign secretary also chimed in, saying, “The OIC summit that has just taken place came out, frankly, with a pathetic statement.” Mr Khokhar was clear that it was not possible to fight terrorism with 30-odd countries.

“When you talk about the alliance of likeminded countries to combat terrorism, the 34-35 countries in it are all essentially Sunni and countries like Iran and Iraq are left out, which makes one wonder what is the direction the Islamic world is going to take,” he said.

“Arabs have to deal with this issue... if you involve Pakistan, if you involve other countries, things will get more complicated,” the former ambassador added.

Mr Rashid was also very clear on how to deal with the threat posed by the Islamic State terrorist group.

“I have no doubt that IS will have to be confronted militarily by the Arab states. The more you involve the Americans and the rest of the Muslim world, the more negative results you will get.”

Moving onto China’s influence in the region, he announced that, “the Chinese have won the battle for influence in Central Asia.”

Warning that Pakistan’s reputation in that part of the world wasn’t too good, he said, “When you go to Central Asia, you don’t hear them blaming the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan or Ashraf Ghani, they are all blaming Pakistan, because all these groups were at one time residing in Pakistan.” He was referring to the mujahedeen, which were formed to kick out the invading USSR army from Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Mr Rashid also pointed out that Tehran was not only presenting the port of Chabahar to Afghanistan – as an alternative to Karachi for trade because it couldn’t handle the goods – but was also trying to entice China to route its trade through Iran in case Gwadar didn’t pan out.

Criticising the way Pakistan was involving other countries in its relations with India, Mr Rashid said, “We’re conducting a foreign policy that is using India as the base of relations with Iran, Central Asia and Afghanistan, and we tell them ‘kick the Indians out and then we’ll be friendly’.”

“This is no way to conduct a foreign policy,” he said, describing the exercise as “blackmail”.

“All these countries have longstanding ties with India and the international community is not going to buy this. China has trade with India that is six or seven times more than its trade with Pakistan. You think China going to abandon its relationship with India? No!”

He also called for expanding the quadrilateral group on Afghanistan to include Central Asia and Iran as well, but noted that one of the main problems was the lack of a foreign minister in Pakistan and the dearth of “civilian input into foreign policy” in Islamabad.

The conversation between the two foreign policy experts drifted at times. At the outset, Mr Rashid conveyed his awe of the moderator when he said, “I should be interviewing you.” This seemed to set the tone for Mr Khokhar’s interventions and he proceeded to take his time, framing questions and offering his own opinion on most, if not all the points raised during the conversation.

Published in Dawn, April 16th, 2016