With increasing regularity at the moment the national Westminster polls are asking how respondents would vote if there was a new referendum on Brexit. In the main the responses a fairly similar with those wanting to stay in the EU having a lead between 7 and 10%.

I am not convinced there has been that much switching. Being a Leaver or remainer is almost akin to supporting City or United in Manchester. You are one side or the other but you see almost no movement between supporters of the two teams even if one is doing better the other.

Over whether the UK should stay or leave the EU people are what they are and I very much agree with the Conservatives peer, former MP and campaign expert, Robert Hayward, who has put out an analysis saying that if we do have a second vote then the outcome will be very similar. He writes:

“..I think many of the polls (quite a few of which show limited movement) are asking a series of complex questions and the results are being spuriously aggregated. The message ‘tell them again’ is simple, clear and full of meaning. Given that at the previous referendum the majority of final polls showed remain in the lead (just) and that one on the day gave a remain lead of 10% it would be risky to pursue another referendum without a regular lead of 60-40. (This is generally thought to be the view held by the SNP re a further vote in Scotland) Yes we all know people who have moved in one direction or another (in my case very few). However, the people I know who have moved have done so from Remain to Leave. The shifting demographics might make a difference but I have been struck in recent days by friends who don’t normally express a view and who have written strong emails/texts saying we need to get on with it. I think there could be just as many extra C2s, D1s etc who would turn out to negate any extra youth support. There were people who voted remain because of campaign fear who would not do so again. Overall I believe there is a strong possibility is that Leave could win again.”

Because I run PB people tend to talk to me about their politics and like Lord Hayward I have yet to come across a Leave to Remain switcher.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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