Understand her priorities and it's all grotesquely logical

Theresa May’s tactics may seem incomprehensible. Everything she does makes things worse for her. So, why does she do it?

A first thing to say is: Theresa May is really really bad at politics. She did not get to be Prime Minister via achievement in office or cunning political manipulation of her opponents or events.

She got to be Prime Minister by being bad at every front-bench position she held, in a way that was too dull for anyone to remember, with a stolid loyalty to her superiors that always kept her on side, whilst her more gifted and glamorous opponents destroyed themselves.

Having been bad at politics all the way through, it should not be a surprise that she is really bad at politics now.

But let’s try to understand things from her point of view. What are the things she wants? She is among the most, if not the most, anti-immigration MP in Parliament.

She is a keen supporter of the Union and certainly would not want to be seen as responsible for the exit of Northern Ireland or Scotland. With her Home Office background, she is instinctively anxious about the idea of any alteration to the security situation in Northern Ireland.