AFTER a dismal result in the local elections in March, President François Hollande’s Socialists are steeling themselves for more bad news in the European elections. Their goal had been to beat the 16% they got in 2009, barely ahead of the Greens. Now some have lowered the bar, hoping merely to do better than in 1994 when, under Michel Rocard, the Socialists secured just 14.5%.

The latest polls suggest that Mr Hollande’s party will come third, with no more than 16-18%. Few incumbent European governments have a worse rating. Even the British Conservatives, whom the polls suggest will also come third, are on 22%. Other governments, notably in Germany and Italy, are in the lead. Why is Mr Hollande doing so badly?

The answer is a mix of economic disappointment and political error. Growth stalled in the first quarter, dragged down by a 0.5% drop in consumer spending. This is worse than the euro average, and contrasts with a strong quarter in Germany and Britain. Unemployment remains high, at 10%. Another 23,600 private-sector jobs were lost in the first quarter. Such economic fragility has sapped confidence, the more so since Mr Hollande keeps telling voters that recovery is just around the corner. In 2012 he promised to bring down unemployment by the end of 2013; it kept inching up. Last month he said he had spotted an economic turnaround; growth turned out to be zero.

He has not done much better on taxes. In 2012 his government vowed that the richest 10% would pay for almost all its tax increases; yet last year, 840,000 extra households started to pay tax. The government now promises that it will exempt 1.8m of low earners this year. At a cost of €1 billion ($1.4 billion), this attempt to defuse a potential tax revolt is at once a relief for those concerned, and baffling: in effect, Mr Hollande is seeking to reduce the burden of measures that he was responsible for introducing in the first place.

Mr Hollande has tried to give himself a fresh start by appointing a new, dynamic prime minister, Manuel Valls. Mr Valls has given the government a sharper, more decisive tone. Yet the president’s popularity remains at 18%, a record low in the Fifth Republic, according to Ifop, a pollster—and fully 38 points below Mr Valls. The prime minister’s unusually high rating is partly down to support from the centre and even the right. His problem is his party’s left wing, which considers him too moderate. They see his recently announced €50 billion of spending cuts in 2015-17 as a betrayal of Socialist values. When Mr Valls put the plan to parliament, 41 of his own party’s deputies abstained.

Yet the biggest fallout from the European elections will come not from Mr Hollande’s poor showing but from the success of Marine Le Pen’s National Front. Eight out of nine polls taken this month put her on top, with about 23% against 21% for the centre-right UMP—and up from just 6% in 2009. She is capitalising on rising Euroscepticism, with promises to take France out of the euro and Schengen, explode the pro-European consensus and end diktats from Brussels. (Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president, has also called for powers to be returned from Brussels to national governments.) Ms Le Pen’s efforts to recast the Front as a party of power not protest have been carefully plotted. In the local elections the party won 12 town halls.

If Ms Le Pen comes first, however much that has been forecast, it will be a huge shock. It will knock the UMP sideways, exposing its difficulty in hanging on as the main opposition. And it will be a deep embarrassment to Mr Hollande. The National Front emerged in the early 1980s, thanks to the introduction of proportional voting and a Socialist promise—unfulfilled—to give foreigners the right to vote. The mastermind behind the idea? Mr Hollande’s mentor, President François Mitterrand.