What US election result could mean for transatlantic ties with Europe

What US election result could mean for transatlantic ties with Europe

Almost every European government favours a win by Clinton over Trump

The outcome of the US election could have significant implications across the Atlantic in a continent which is already experiencing profound and destabilising change.

For Europe, Brexit was a body blow which some say will mark the beginning of the unravelling of the European Union project.

But could the result of the US election hasten that unravelling?

US elections: Live coverage from 10pm on Tuesday

Every European government has signalled, openly or otherwise, that they favour a win by Mrs Clinton.

The only exception is Viktor Orban's right-wing nationalist government in Hungary which has declared its support for Mr Trump.


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Almost all the main opposition parties in Europe have also indicated their support for Mrs Clinton.

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Only a handful of nationalist parties have declared their support for Mr Trump: Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Nigel Farage in the UK and Marine Le Pen in France.

Jeremy Shapiro is research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He is a former senior State Department official and believes that both a Clinton and a Trump presidency would present challenges for transatlantic relations as well as the internal unity of Europe.

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Mr Shapiro told Sky News: "The reaction would be, 'Christ, this is a problem, but we can deal with it.'

"European governments have a strange degree of confidence that although they certainly don't want a Trump presidency, they can manage it, because he has said a lot of crazy things on the campaign trail but he probably hasn't meant most of them and probably won't be able to implement the rest because of the checks and balances and advisers.

"My personal view is that that's wrong.

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"I think we often underestimate the degree to which American power has underlain the ability of the Europeans to cooperate with each other. I think if the American backstop is gone, and I think it would be gone under a Trump presidency, that's going to free up and encourage every, not just populist force, but every force of nationalism in a variety of European states, particularly in the east.

"I think that will be incredibly damaging to a European project that is already, let's face it, in trouble."

:: A Clinton win?

Mrs Clinton is much more of a known quantity.

As the status quo, she is a turn off to the disillusioned in America, but that continuity is attractive to European leaders even if she is seen as being a little too aggressive and gung-ho.

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She is a known quantity who will present Europe with challenges it is used to.

Mr Shapiro said: "Clinton's challenge is the everyday challenge.

"It's real, it's important but Trump's challenge is an existential challenge because what he is saying is: 'I don't really view this alliance as important, I think of it as a very transactional thing, as a deal, to be made.'

"That undermines the solidarity concept which has always been at the heart of the transatlantic bargain and which Clinton would certainly not touch."

Read more:

:: Trump vs Clinton on key issues for America

:: What time the polls close and when to expect a result

:: The states that will decide the outcome

:: The Electoral College and how you win a Presidential election

:: Analysis: How Donald Trump's bid is similar to Brexit campaign