Hundreds of thousands of children and their parents will find out on Wednesday whether they have got into the secondary school of their choice, as figures reveal that an increasing number of parents in England are failing to get a place at their first choice school.

In the past 12 months more than half of England’s towns and counties have seen a fall in the proportion of 11-year-olds receiving a place in the first choice school, according to a Press Association analysis of government data. The problem is expected to be worse than last year due to an increase of 16,000 applicants.



The Good School Guide predicts that more than 90,000 children in England will miss out on their first choice school on what has become known as national offer day. Last year 84.1% of pupils were offered a place at their first choice of secondary, down 0.1 of a percentage point from 2015.



Pressure is particularly high in London and other large cities, where many will be preparing to take part in an appeals process, as children who have missed out on their choice make a last-ditch – and probably fruitless – attempt to secure a place at their preferred school.



In 2016, local authorities in Birmingham, Bradford, Liverpool and Slough gave less than 75% of applicants their first-choice school, while 69% of applicants in London received their first choice. Hammersmith and Fulham placed 16.2% of applicants in a “non-preferred” school.



Bernadette John of the Good Schools Guide said there was a 20% success rate in appeals: “We speak to parents every year who are disappointed and angry with the school offers their children have received. Families are complicated and there can be many reasons why a school is not a good fit for a child. It is not always ambitious parents eager for places at the most academic school.”



In the past five years-two thirds of local authorities experienced a drop in the percentage of students getting into any of their preferred schools. Analysis of Department for Education (DfE) data shows that last year 80 out of 151 local councils (53%) saw a drop in the proportion of pupils given their first choice of secondary school, compared with the year before, while 68 authorities (45%) saw a fall in the percentage given one of their overall preferences.



It comes as a charity warns that top state schools have become the preserve of wealthier parents who can afford to live within tight catchment areas.



Research from the Sutton Trust reveals that poorer pupils are significantly less likely to win places at the 500 comprehensives that get the best GCSE grades, including English and maths.



These secondaries are significantly more “socially selective” than the average state school, admitting around 9.4% of pupils eligible for free school meals – a key measure of poverty, compared with 17.2% attending the average state school. The situation has improved slightly; in 2013, the average proportion of poorer pupils in the best schools was 7.6%.



Faith schools were the most socially selective, making up 33.4% of the top 500 based on A*-C grades including English and maths, according to the study.



Parents have to pay about 20% more for a house in a catchment area of a top comprehensive, with a typical house costing around £45,700 more than the average property in the same local authority.



Richard Watts, chair of the Local Government Association’s children and young people board, said councils were doing everything they could to ensure no child was left without a school, and had created an extra 300,000 primary school places.

“However, as children move on to secondary schools, the majority of which are now academies, councils are working with one hand behind their backs to help as many as possible receive a place at their first-choice school,” he said.



Russell Hobby, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said government figures suggested a need for 750,000 new places by 2025 to meet a 10% rise in the student population.

“There is a desperate need for long-term planning that spans all sectors,” he said. “Schools are facing a £3bn shortfall in funding by 2019, with 98% set to be worse off at a time when costs are rising and pupil numbers are growing. With the massive increase in pupil numbers and over-stretched budgets, we cannot afford inefficiency and conflict.”



A more detailed picture of how many of children in their final year of primary school have got into their first choice will emerge later on Wednesday as local authorities publish figures.

Malcolm Trobe, interim general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said the government had created a schools places lottery. “One reason for this situation is that new free schools are not always opened in the areas of greatest demographic need, especially at secondary level,” he said.

“Where this is the case, a new free school may create spare capacity in the area, and this can affect pupil numbers, and therefore funding, at neighbouring schools, and in the new free school itself. The government believes this creates competition and drives up standards but there is no evidence that this is the case and it may damage existing good schools in the area.”



A DfE spokesman said the proportion of parents getting a place at their first choice of school had remained stable, with “almost all” parents receiving an offer at one of their top three preferred schools.



“Nearly 600,000 additional pupil places were created between May 2010 and May 2015, and the government is now pushing ahead with the creation of a further 600,000 new school places as part of its wider £23bn investment in the school estate up to 2021,” he said.