Alec Brock

Opinion contributor

In 2016, Democrats were surprised when Donald Trump won the swing states and flipped Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. It became clear that the United States was in a political transition. Trump’s controversial rhetoric gained support among disenfranchised voters. He pulled support away from the Democratic Party by the gained votes of blue-collar workers. While states were flipped by small margins, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes. What Democrats already knew became very daunting — becoming president is not a matter of having the most votes, nor the most passionate supporters; it is about winning states.

If Democrats want to win in 2020, they do not need to look at nationwide popularity polls of primary contenders among primary voters. They need to identity the states they need to flip in the general election and ask themselves, “Who is the best candidate to win these states?” In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania flipped from blue to red due to disenfranchised voters and white blue-collar workers who had been left behind economically. Who is going to validate the experiences of the disenfranchised and bring back blue-collar workers?

Similarly, in 2018, anti-Trump voters flipped conservative suburbs, causing a blue tsunami in the House of Representatives. What candidate is going to maintain Democratic gains in the suburbs that simultaneously plague swing states?

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Flipping the upper Midwest and securing newly Democratic voters of the suburbs is the most visible and secure way of winning the Electoral College map of 2020, and four of the top five leading Democratic contenders are going to have difficulty on delivering for obvious reasons.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, the candidate who rides on the former president’s coattails, cannot expect to maintain his support among blue-collar voters when their disillusionment with the Obama administration is part of what moved their votes to Trump. A senator from California is not going to relate to the upper Midwestern voters who flipped Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 because they felt left behind by economic progress and cultural changes centered on coastal cities. Far-left candidates who support eliminating private health insurance are not going to secure the new voters of the Democratic Party who flipped conservative suburbs across the country and gave Democrats the House of Representatives in 2018.

But there is the Midwestern mayor, Pete Buttigieg.

Buttigieg is polling in fifth place in national polls among Democratic primary voters. After the first debate, polling by Morning Consult concluded that 26% of likely Democratic primary voters "never heard of" the fifth-place candidate. In other words, he has appeal for those who know of him, and he has room to grow support with nearly $25 million from second-quarter fundraising to grow his base.

For those who are paying close attention to Pete’s campaign, it is clear he is running a general election campaign while others are campaigning for a primary race and hurting themselves for a general election run. Pete is speaking to the politically disenfranchised, validating their experience by prioritizing Democratic reform: “We’ve got to fix our democracy before it’s too late. Get that right (and) climate, immigration, taxes, and every other issue gets better.”

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While voters feel left behind by the economic progress in coastal cities and decline in blue-collar jobs, Pete is assuring rural America they are not the problem but are the solution to climate change. He is a pragmatic Democrat who can maintain the votes that the Democratic Party gained in the 2018 midterm that flipped the suburbs. And while he fits the profile to bring voters back into the Democratic Party, particularly Midwestern voters who voted for Trump, he is also the prosecutor, faith-filled Christian and military veteran to call out hypocrisy. That is, to reclaim traditionally Republican-claimed values such as faith, security and freedom, securing disgruntled Republicans and moderates by boldly denouncing the Trump administration.

Becoming president is not a matter of winning the popular vote or having the most loyal base, it is a matter of winning states. Democrats need to choose the candidate who can return the upper Midwest. While Biden is marketed as the candidate to defeat Trump, he is clearly unable due to his own record and current campaign. The candidate who promises a return to 2008-2016 political norms and agenda, refusing to see that the system is broken and Americans want institutional change cannot secure the politically disenfranchised that flipped his once-upon-a-time territory. Far-left candidates promoting unfillable far-left solutions cannot secure suburbs that the Democratic Party can strategically maintain in 2020. Democrats, choose the winnable candidate, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

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Alec Brock is a Louisville native who received a Bachelor of Science degree from Murray State University in political science and secondary social studies teaching. He is working on a master’s degree from Louisville Presbyterian Theological Seminary.