1998 to 2014: What exit polls predicted and what voters decided. A look

A voter signs a document after casting her vote at a polling station during the seventh and last phase of Lok Sabha elections, at village Bhoot, near Amritsar, Sunday, May 19, 2019. (PTI photo)

The mega seven-phase Lok Sabha elections concluded on Sunday with the close of voting in 59 constituencies across eight states . All eyes are on exit polls now, which TV channels will start airing soon.

The exit polls, known to be off the mark at times, are based on responses of the people who have cast their votes. Pollsters, assuming that the voters have correctly revealed their choice, predict the results much before the actual counting of votes.

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There have been many instances when the exit polls have been wide off the mark. At least four exit polls have predicted wrongly, barring those in the 1998 and 2014 general polls.

In the 1999 elections, forced by an early collapse of the government led by BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee, most polls overrated the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA’s) win. They gave the NDA overwhelming 315-plus seats but it actually won 296.

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Whether today’s exit polls are on the mark or not, we’ll only know on May 23, but here’s a look at what was predicted versus actual results since 1998 elections:

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