I’ll comment as the evening progresses.

9:09pm: The NYTimes Senate projected margins are running several percentage points more Republican than pre-election polls.

9:04pm: Here are some negative signs for Democrats: Trump’s ahead in Florida, overperforming his polls by several percentage points. Also, NH and PA Senate races leaning R at the NYTimes tracker.

I note that the generic House ballot swung toward Republicans by several points in the closing weeks, to D+1%. That is another piece of data suggesting that the GOP might overperform their polls. Definitely some mixed signals tonight.

8:43pm: Oh, this is awesome: the NY Times projection tool. So much better than TV. For now, it looks like control may come down to the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania Senate races. If Republicans take one of those, then they are likely to retain control.

WOLF: John, let’s take a look at Florida again!

JOHN: No.

WOLF: I’m sorry? Florida is very important–

JOHN: Fuck off. — Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) November 9, 2016

8:31pm: Todd Young (R) wins IN-Sen. Not unexpected, but that’s one close race for the GOP.

8:25pm: According to you, television watching options:

Red Skelton special is coming up

Showtime: Stephen Colbert election night special

Pop: the movie Dave

El Rey: Twilight Zone marathon

8:18pm: Don’t ask me about any race closer than two percentage points. All comments on this topic will be deleted until 10:00pm!

8:13pm: I’m unaware of any advance indications of Trump overperformance. On the contrary, we have: (a) early voting neutral or more Democratic than 2012; (b) massive Latino voting; and (c) high turnout. If I had to guess, I’d say any error will favor Clinton.

8:04pm: Do yourselves a favor and turn off the TV coverage – it is basically worse than pre-election polling until 10:00pm. My friends here want to watch it though. Any suggestions of other TV stuff that is fun tonight?

8:00pm: Here’s something cool: an electoral-vote tracker from reader Ben Reich. Just fill in the cells in row 4 with “C” or “T”. It automatically calculates the electoral totals, and updates the paths to victory for Clinton or Trump. No map update, sorry! For that, use 270towin.com.

6:30pm: Here is Slate’s VoteCastr tool for forecasting state totals based on partial information. I’m a bit suspicious, but it’s certainly not worse than live news, which is basically worthless for the next 2-3 hours. Or follow real counts at the New York Times.