Rafael Nadal needs a good performance this next month. It’s not just important for his confidence, which he admits is poor right now. It’s not just important for his personal and career achievements. It’s not just important for the Roland Garros seeding, which is merely part of the overall issue. Nadal needs an excellent May just to remain in the ranks of the tennis elite.

Is that statement extreme? Maybe. Would Rafael Nadal still be one of the favorites to win most tournaments if he fell out of the Top 10? Probably. But I can guarantee that he doesn’t want to find that out.

How could Rafa fall out of the Top 10? The answer is scarily easy, actually. Since the end of last year’s French Open, Rafa has only earned 1790 ranking points. That is not even close to the Top 10, all of whom have over 3000. He had a great May last year, earning 3600 points in the two Masters (Madrid and Rome) and at the French Open, but the rest of his past 47 weeks have been pretty pedestrian at best.

Now, though, it’s really crunch time for Nadal. The 2000 points up for grabs at the next two Masters tournaments always have a strong impact on the Roland Garros seedings. With so many points so close to a Slam it’s important to players to get up for the tournament and the seeds they want at the upcoming Slam.

Novak Djokovic is locked into World #1 through at least the summer and knows he is the #1 seed at Roland Garros, so it doesn’t hurt him in the slightest to skip Madrid. Roger Federer similarly has that #2 seed locked up so don’t be surprised if he opts out of playing Rome next week. Andy Murray also has quite the lead for the #3 seed, though in theory Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, or Tomas Berdych could catch him with a title and a runner-up these next two weeks.

But it’s the current World #4, Rafael Nadal, whose seed is in trouble. He won Madrid last year and was the runner-up (to Djokovic) in Rome. That is a whopping 1600 points coming off the board. Many have noted that he could conceivably be outside the top four seeds at Roland Garros, which could mean a meeting with Djokovic in the quarter-finals.

How precarious is Nadal’s #4 spot right now? Well, let’s just point out that even if Nadal wins both Madrid and Rome it is conceivable that Berdych could jump him for the #4 seed if Tomas finishes runner-up in both tournaments. One loss before the final in either of these two tournaments pretty much dooms Nadal’s chances of being a top four seed at the French Open. It’s not an enviable position that is going to add a ton of pressure on Nadal.

However, that is far from all that Nadal has to worry about. It’s not just getting in that important top four cutoff, he could be at risk for being outside the top eight seeds. Right now, if we ignore last year’s Madrid and Rome points, Nadal sits at #8 in the World. Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic, both capable of making deep runs on clay, are within striking distance at 395 and 510 points behind, respectively. If either of them makes a run to the Madrid final, Rafa could be coming in to Rome knowing he needs a good performance just to stay in the top eight.

What is the difference between being #8 or #9? At Roland Garros, thankfully (for Nadal) not too much. Seeds 5-8 can draw any of seeds 9-12 in the fourth round, as opposed to other Slams where being in the 9-16 range means you can draw any of the top eight. Still, if Nadal falls outside the top eight he can be in for a fourth-round Roland Garros matchup against Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. Nadal will be the co-favorite (with Djokovic) at Roland Garros no matter what, but he really does not want an impossible road in getting to the final.

What are the chances that Nadal actually falls outside the top eight seeds? It’s possible but probably not too likely. Then again, his odds of being in the top four are slimmer. And if Nadal fails to win the French Open, we could see him outside the top ten seeds at Wimbledon for the first time in a decade. Rafa is still supremely talented, but age and the field are catching him rapidly right now. And once you fall back into the pack, it’s just that much tougher to break out ahead again.

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