Rafael Carranza

The Republic | azcentral.com

The number of immigrants caught attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border decreased by about 40 percent in February, a development the head of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security attributed to President Donald Trump's tough stance on illegal immigration.

But immigration analysts weren't immediately ready to credit Trump's policies for the decline.

In January, Border Patrol agents detained 31,575 immigrants attempting to cross the Southwestern border. The following month, the number of apprehensions declined to 18,762, according to figures released Wednesday.

While it's an imprecise measure, the number of migrants apprehended attempting to enter the U.S. without authorization is widely viewed as the best indicator of illegal-immigration levels.

Making a rare public statement about the situation on the Southwestern border, DHS Secretary John Kelly called it "an unprecedented decline in traffic" from month to month.

"Since President Trump took office on January 20, we have seen a dramatic drop in numbers," Kelly said in his statement, adding that they are trending toward a five-year low.

In Arizona, agents in the Tucson sector arrested 30 percent fewer immigrants last month, compared with the start of the year. In the Yuma sector, the drop was even sharper — apprehensions in February were less than half of January's numbers.

Immigration analysts, however, said that it is too soon to call it a trend, and expressed skepticism about crediting the Trump administration solely for the decline. They said the next few months will show whether the president's executive actions on immigration enforcement are having an effect.

"The Trump administration clearly plans to scale up enforcement from the interior, and that has created some fear among immigrant communities," said Faye Hipsman, a policy analyst for the Washington, D.C.-based, nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute.

"A lot of the people who are coming, are coming because they have family here and that feedback reaches Central America and Mexico," she said.

Hipsman said other factors, including a seasonal lull during winter months, could have contributed to the decline.

She also said that some of the drop, such as the number of "inadmissibles," can be traced to policy changes late in the presidency of Barack Obama, who tightened rules for Cuban and Haitian migrants.

There was a similar decrease in apprehensions in 2014, she noted, after a surge in unaccompanied minors led to increased enforcement at the border, only to go up again later.

"At the end of the day, the conditions in Central America that are driving these flows and the rampant gang violence is unchanged," she said.

Kevin Appleby, senior director for international migration policy at the faith-based Center for Migration Studies of New York, was more direct.

For the Trump administration "to take full credit is ridiculous," he said. "(Trump) might have had an impact, but it's not the only reason the numbers are lower."

Among other factors, he said, are an increase in the number of asylum claims in Mexico that would otherwise end up in the U.S.

In his statement, Kelly noted the fees charged by the human traffickers who smuggle migrants across the border had risen.

"Since Nov. 2016, 'coyotes' have hiked their fees in some areas by roughly 130 percent—from $3,500 to $8,000 in certain mountainous regions," he said. "Changes in U.S. policy, including the detention of apprehended aliens, drive up the smuggling fees."

Appleby said smugglers are likely reacting to Trump's directives on immigration and raising their prices. But that might only be temporary.

"We've seen this before, where smugglers have held back but there's a surge later when there's not that much focus," he said. "I would anticipate that over time there will be new routes to the U.S. that people will take. We're still going to see high numbers until we address the root causes."

Reporters asked White House spokesman Sean Spicer about the drop in apprehensions and whether it meant building a wall on the entire Southwestern border was no longer necessary.

"The president was very clear, it's not just needed, the president committed to doing it," Spicer said. "While we can have a good month, and we'll see if that continues, the president made a commitment to the American people to make sure that this isn't just an anomaly."

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