Influential oligarchs, including - by proxy - the powerful Ihor Kolomoisky, have spoken out against continuing the war and talking up a negotiated peace

This article originally appeared at Gazeta.ru. It was translated by Kristina Rus at Fort Russ

Influential Ukrainian oligarchs have spoken against continuing the war against the Donbass separatists. Viktor Baloga, a Rada Deputy and the “boss of Transcarpathia” proposed to make this issue the subject of a national referendum.

Similar proposals were made earlier by Gennadiy Korban, deputy governor of Dnepropetrovsk, Igor Kolomoysky’s second in command.

According to the experts, the situation had begun to seriously threaten the positions of the financial elite and requires a change in approach.

Viktor Baloga proposed to hold a referendum on the question of whether to continue the war or let the South-East go. According to the deputy, the choice is simple: “either a civilized parting of ways or a war for many years which will weaken the state, finish off the economy, and make every Ukrainian even poorer”.

“If the people are prepared for it, we fight on. But if not, the referendum will determine that the occupied territories are not part of Ukraine, Putin will not give them back to us, as if it were damaged goods.But in strategic sense we will be able to save the state, strengthen the economy, grow stronger, and carry out reforms,” Baloga wrote on his facebook page. At the same time Baloga hopes that Donbass will soon “see the light” and ask to return to Ukraine.

Several days earlier Igor Kolomoysky’s deputy Gennadiy Korban appeared with a similar announcement. “The local politicians ought to understand: if their blitzkrieg fails, then you have to lay down your crown and negotiate. Like they do in business,” he said in an interview with Hromadske.tv.

When asked with whom to negotiate, with Putin or the separatists, Korban answered “We need to negotiate. I don’t know with whom, I can’t comment on that. Maybe with Zakharchenko. I would negotiate if I had no more strength… The main task is not the economy or the corruption, it’s the fact that people are dying. We are bringing back the remains every day, it affects you…But in Kiev they are treating this like statisticians, while we see it with our own eyes… I think it is possible to reach an understanding even with the devil himself, so long as people stop dying.”

Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev reminds us that “Kolomoysky and Baloga are very influential figures in Ukraine’s politics. The first controls the territory closer to the separatist-held East, the other the western region of Transcarpathia. They cannot be considered “doves,” therefore their agreement on the question of a ceasefire is really telling.

They are not pacifists, but they understand that the war can spread to neighboring territories, and that they also need a respite to continue state-building and military reforms,” says Karasev. “Due to his indecisiveness, his going back and forth between the peace and war parties, Poroshenko is starting to lose.

His indecisiveness means that the political initiative is passing to the People’s Front of Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Aleksandr Turchinov, who favor war. It’s far from clear that their coming to power would be beneficial to Kolomoysky, and it certainly would not be beneficial to Baloga.”

According to the expert, Poroshenko must find a compromise agreement with the separatists and Moscow. “Both peace at any price and war until final victory are losing strategies.”

The head of the Ukrainian Politics Institute Konstantin Bondarenko believes that the war is not yielding perceptible results and therefore it causes anti-war sentiments among the population. In his view, “Korban and Baloga are expressing the points of view which they see and hear among the population.

I know both Korban and Baloga to be smart politicians who came out of business and who closely watch the popular sentiment. The same Korban was present at creation of the volunteer battalions, and as late as half a year ago was one of the radical politicians.

But today the war is senseless bloodshed, and nobody can formulate the ultimate purpose of the war. The politicians with the most common sense are proposing to find an exit out of the situation,” says Bondarenko.

Since the last summer, the anti-war position was embraced by the Party of Regions, the Opposition Bloc, and then Poroshenko’s “Solidarity.” Most recently that position was joined by Baloga and the former “hawk” Korban.

According to Bondarenko, Baloga is considered to have influence over Transcarpathia, since his clan controls all five electoral districts. Moreover, he worked as the director of the president’s secretariat under the Yushchenko administration, and was considered to be the “grey eminence” of the Yushchenko political machine.

Bondarenko believes that Baloga is expressing the prevailing sentiments in Transcarpathia. Similar attitudes are appearing also in Dnepropetrovsk. According to Bondarenko, “even a month ago Kolomoysky was considered to be a member of the party of war.” But now the “hawk” camp which is represented by Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, and Avakov had lost a serious ally.

The statements by members of the Ukrainian elite are being made against the background of deteriorating military situation. The army of the self-proclaimed republics is encircling the city of Debaltsevo of the Donetsk region, where a major grouping of UAF is based. The success of pro-Russian separatists threatens to repeat the annihilation of the Ukrainian forces at Ilovaysk.

The escalation of conflict occurred in January, when the collapse of negotiations became evident. Now the self-declared republics insist on retaining the control of the territory captured since the signing of the September documents (some 500 square kilometers). Ukraine is not prepared to take such a step, and is carrying out a military mobilization simultaneously with DPR.

Translator’s Note: Baloga made news about a week ago, when he took Poroshenko to task (on twitter, no less) for allowing Ukrainian forces at Debaltsevo to be surrounded. One of the formations trapped there is a mountain infantry brigade based in Transcarpathia.

It is also interesting that Korban became a more prominent figure just as another of Kolomoysky’s deputies, the ultra-hawkish Boris Filatov (known for, among other things, for his infamous facebook post in which he called on the government to “negotiate first, hang later”, as a means of dealing with “separatists”) had vanished from the social media altogether.

Both oligarchs no doubt fear the very “volunteer battalions” they had helped to create and even finance. If Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, and Avakov want to continue the war until victory, they will have to find a way to finance it, and sooner or later they’ll have to start breaking the oligarchs’ piggy banks, using the very same “volunteer battalions” that Kolomoysky helped create.

Because if Kolomoysky is calling for a referendum to "legalize" Novorossia's independence, it's probably safe to say Yarosh might have a different opinion on the issue.