Teachers’ strikes are coming soon to a school near you.

Parents are rattled and opposition politicians are decrying the government’s supposed paralysis.

But the panic is misplaced. And Tory demands for an urgent strike ban are premature (but presage tougher tactics if they win power).

Let’s put this labour dispute in perspective: A one-day work stoppage isn’t a pedagogical apocalypse. Rotating strikes in elementary schools may seem pointless and churlish, but they are perfectly legal and hardly surprising.

Yes, they are inconvenient and even unfair for parents with child-care challenges. But the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (ETFO) is giving 72-hours’ advance notice so parents can brace for the picket lines. With only 10 school days until the Christmas break (even less by the time any strikes hit Toronto later this week), the school year is not about to be lost.

Related:Five myths about the teachers’ dispute

This past Friday was a professional development (PD) day, so another day without classes is par for the course. And with snow days looming, strike days are surely just another passing storm front.

In fact, the chronological logic of the Christmas calendar means any prolonged walkouts are destined to be time-limited — we’ll be saved by the (jingle) bells. There is ample time to make up for missed classes.

All the more reason for Queen’s Park to keep its antistrike powers holstered until the holidays — unless the strikes drag on. Teachers may be indispensable, but they are not deemed an essential service by law. Bill 115, the controversial law passed last September, doesn’t automatically ban school walkouts yet — it merely gives cabinet discretion if the situation gets out of hand.

That changes on Jan. 1, when cabinet is empowered to impose a contract on any school board in Ontario. Once a collective agreement is in place, a strike is by definition illegal, and government sources say they won’t hesitate to act in the new year. Firm plans are in place for the rapid-fire imposition of more than 400 local agreements across the province as of Jan. 1, ensuring that classes will resume on schedule after the holiday break.

But there is a reluctance to intervene during the countdown to Christmas. A union court challenge claims Bill 115 violates the Charter of Rights, and ETFO is daring the government to act in hopes of demonstrating the jackboot in action. Whether to take the bait or wait it out will be a political judgment call for Premier Dalton McGuinty.

The challenge for teachers is how far to push the envelope. If strikes drag on, public resentment could surge — as it did against garbage collectors in Toronto a few years ago. The issue back then was the union’s insistence on keeping windfall gratuities upon retirement — a payout of unused sick pay that the public views as an anachronism.

Teachers’ retirement gratuities are a $1.4-billion liability for the province and were a major sticking point in last-ditch talks last month. After the government sweetened the pot, negotiators from the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF) took a compromise deal back to their members — but union locals rejected their advice and voted it down.

Now consider the fallout from that garbage strike in Toronto: it triggered the rise of Rob Ford, the privatization of garbage collection in Toronto and TTC workers losing their right to strike.

Next, consider how Tory Leader Tim Hudak wants to weaken “union bosses” by making membership — and compulsory dues — voluntary. The Tories argue that teachers wield disproportionate power to treat students as pawns during strikes without fear of losing their jobs. In the private sector, unions that push employers to the wall risk layoffs or plant closings.

Against that backdrop, the traditional model of labour relations — pitting one side’s economic power against the other’s — seems misplaced in the public sector because only the public pays the price, according to the Tories. Will the unions play into Hudak’s hands, as they did with Ford? Antagonizing parents with prolonged school strikes may push even more voters into his arms.

On the eve of the holiday season, labour peace remains elusive in Ontario. No one is covered in glory, and the major players on all sides are being demonized:

The premier who politicized the dispute ahead of a September byelection defeat, has been hurt by his estrangement from labour; McGuinty is now a lame duck headed for retirement next month. The head of the Catholic teachers’ union is being challenged for his job (accused of compromising too soon). The OSSTF leader seems doomed by a membership revolt (blamed for compromising belatedly). ETFO’s (uncompromising) leader is looking over his shoulder because his predecessor is playing the role of spoiler.

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For teachers, the next battles will be legal, political and internal: Their Charter challenge will wend its way through the courts, their drive to defeat the governing Liberals will gather momentum, and their internecine strife will play out.

But they should beware what they wish for, because teachers who don’t study the lessons of history are condemned to redo their homework: When unions helped defeat the NDP in 1995 over Rae Days, they wrought the Mike Harris government. Provoking the public, and disembowelling the Liberals, may empower the most anti-union Tory premier in recent Ontario history.

Martin Regg Cohn’s provincial affairs column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. mcohn@thestar.ca, twitter.com/reggcohn.