That would make sense if selling via Amazon had been their first choice, but it wasn't. They were doing everything they could to bring carriers on board, ....



I think the scenario that most fits the evidence is that, when they failed to garner widespread US and European carrier/retail support coming out of MWC in February,

they projected demand based on the direct purchase of equivalent Alcatel and other similar Android phones, which is relatively low, and failed to anticipate that many BlackBerry fans were old pros at buying direct. they projected demand based on the direct purchase of equivalent Alcatel and other similar Android phones, which is relatively low, and failed to anticipate that many BlackBerry fans were old pros at buying direct.

Once their demand projections were handed off to the procurement and manufacturing team, the die was cast. Purchasing agreements, line retooling, sub-assemblies, etc were all scheduled and committed. Once their demand projections were handed off to the procurement and manufacturing team, the die was cast. Purchasing agreements, line retooling, sub-assemblies, etc were all scheduled and committed.

After that, the only options were reactionary ones, such as postponing the North American launch. After that, the only options were reactionary ones, such as postponing the North American launch.

Technically BlackBerryMobile had only existed for what 2-4 months before MWC in February. Should they have been surprised that there was limited carrier buy in? Yes, this is TCL with another branding label out in front, but the carriers knew just as well as BBMobile what the sales of Blackberry branded phones had been over the last 2-3 years and what the general trend line was.I think this is way off. What you are sweeping under the rug here is the general trend that BlackBerry branded phones have been on over the last 2-3 years. Yes the KeyOne is a different "blend" of features that will have somewhat different traction in the market, but the market forecast complete absent of Blackberry and solely based on Alcatel (or Alcatel + Dtek phones ) would be more than puzzling myopic on TCL's part.The hardware business was sold off because it didn't work. TCL wouldn't have it in the first place is it was a "no brainer" phone for the carriers to sign up for.BBMobile probably estimated low because low has been the trend for BB phones for the last 2-3 years. Throw on top the "Hey we're new, but you should believe our projections way more than your own" sales pitch to the carriers and ....... landing in the unlocked distribution mode should not have been surprising at all. In fact that should have been "Plan A" from the very start. Trying to get the phones prudently quickly qualified on carriers also should have been be "Plan A". "Plan B" would be the carriers buying in. It worked in Canada and didn't other places ... that shouldn't be a shocker.There is little to no evidence that buying direct wasn't on the primary track. That doesn't mean putting in a half-baked effort at the carriers.This part and most of the rest ... yes.I think they also over estimated how effective segmented launches would be. I think a substantive number of phones 'leaked' out of the UK and Germany into other EU markets and a lower number to USA and Canada. The effectiveness of the "segment release" triage probably wasn't as good as they hoped.Once they got into an extended shortage more they only attracted more speculators. It is like send up the "come get me" bat signal. Speculators are just going to come in and make it worse because they make more money in that market.They probably had stepped increases in production capacity. ( make 2K/week phones well. check quality . increment higher . rinse-and-repeat). I suspect the hope was that the incremental adds would allow them to build up some inventory to enter the new countries they were adding. The problem appears to be that much of incremental build was still doing "back fill" into the places they already launched into.There was only so long they could delay selling at Amazon/Best Buy also. Those to were probably set at initial limits months ago and then they could only move the dial only so much.