NHL Draft 2015 Preview: Arizona Coyotes

State of the Coyotes

No team was ever brutalized by the NHL Draft Lottery quite so much as the Arizona Coyotes were this year. Desperate for a No. 1 center and a marquee name in a desert market which struggles to fill an ice hockey arena, the franchise was poised to fill both needs with one of the historically talented duo of Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. Once the lottery numbers were announced, the Coyotes’ dreams were shattered by the realization that they would be picking third in a draft headlined by two generational center talents.

This is not to say the Arizona organization is up the proverbial and unmentionable creek with no paddle. On the contrary, the team features a future Norris candidate in Oliver Ekman-Larsson fronting a talented and versatile young blueline and a cache of talented young forwards surging through their prospect pipeline. With a pair of first-round picks and a pair of second-round picks coming to them in an extremely deep 2015 NHL Entry Draft, general manager Don Maloney has a glowing opportunity to take the ‘Yotes rebuild to the next level if he plays his off-season cards correctly.

Coyotes Top Five Prospects (Scale to 10)

C/LW Max Domi (7.5) — a terrific young offensive talent with a lot of Giroux in his game, he’s expected to make the roster out of camp as a winger, but could play center in a pinch. C/LW Christian Dvorak (7.5) — perhaps the steal of the 2014 NHL draft, Dvorak is an outstanding skater who can score. Could develop into a first-line, point-producing winger at the professional level. LD Brandon Gormley (7.5) — solid, do-everything, mobile defenseman. Doesn’t wow with any particular aspect of his game, but also lacks any glaring weaknesses. LW Anthony Duclair (7.5) — acquired from the Rangers in the Yandle deal, Duclair is another LW who seems to have lightning coming out of his skates. Like Dvorak, this speedster also knows how to put the puck in the net. LW Brendan Perlini (7.5) — big, 6-foot-3 power forward knows how to use his rugged frame in the offensive zone, but needs to learn much about the importance of a 200-foot game. Has some James Neal to his game if he could put it all together.

Organizational Strengths

Beyond the superlative skills of Ekman-Larsson, the Coyotes have the makings of a fine, young blue line. Connor Murphy and Michael Stone give them two solid young talents on RD, while Gormley gives them a young talent on the left side behind OEL.

Although the Coyotes do not have the marquee prospects of Edmonton or Buffalo, they have more depth at forward in the pipeline than any team in the NHL. Aside from the four prospect forwards we have ranked in their top five, we rank another five Arizona forward pr ospects at 7.0 (second-line upside) or higher: Ryan MacInnis (7.5), Lucas Lessio (7.0), Maxim Letunov (7.0), Henrik Samuelsson (7.0) and Laurent Dauphin (7.0). That’s nine forwards who should wind up as contributing NHLers, or three full lines…astounding depth.

Organizational Weaknesses

33-year old goaltender Mike Smith struggled for much of the 2014-15 campaign and could be on the other side of his prime. Despite spending a 2010 first-round pick on netminder Mark Visentin, the Coyotes have no goalie prospects with the capability to one day emerge as a legitimate starting option at the NHL level.

The Coyotes are desperate for a top-line center, somewhere (anywhere) in their organization. Domi’s all-out offensive game would be a terrific compliment to a true, two-way No. 1 pivot, but this is something the Coyotes need to address in the draft.

The inability to attract high-profile free agents to a money-tight team means the Coyotes need to draft even better than the competition and home-grow their stars. This makes the 2015 lottery debacle even more painful for a team which painfully needed a McDavid or an Eichel.

Trade Winds

The one, true franchise player in the Coyotes’ organization is Oliver Ekman-Larsson, a mobile, two-way left-shooting defenseman. The consensus best-available player when the Coyotes draft third overall in the 2015 draft will be Noah Hanifin, a mobile, two-way, left-shooting defenseman. Does GM Don Maloney want to double up at the same position? It worked for an Anaheim team which won a Stanley Cup behind their two best players of Scott Niedermeyer and Chris Pronger, but it’s a rather unorthodox way to build a franchise.

It might behoove the Coyotes to trade down a few spots in the draft with one of the many teams who would covet a franchise-type stud like Hanifin patrolling their blue line. Drafting seventh and eighth overall, the Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets would both fit this description — two up-and-coming NHL teams which lack a franchise defenseman on their teams or in their prospect pipelines. Perhaps the ‘Yotes could flip the No. 3 pick for No. 7 or No. 8, where they could still land a future first-line center candidate.

Many Arizona fans are clamoring for the team to draft Dylan Strome, a two-way beast with an Eric Staal-type game, but is Strome’s upside that much more than Matthew Barzal’s or Pavel Zacha’s? We would say differently — while Strome is the safest pick of the three, both Barzal and Zacha offer superior offensive upside. If Maloney were to drop four or five picks, they could add another second-round pick as compensation and still get a terrific center. We’re not saying this type of deal is imminent, we are just iterating that it would be a good idea for Arizona management to consider.

GM Don Maloney Draft Dossier

Has any GM ever coveted one particular aspect of players they draft like Maloney covets NHL legacies? The past four — count ’em, four — Coyotes first-round picks have been the sons of ex-NHL players (Perlini, Domi, Samuelsson, Murphy). In last year’s draft, Maloney took this to a new level, as his first three picks were sons of ex-NHL players (Perlini, MacInnis, Dvorak).

When the Coyotes draft third, they will be looking hard at center Dylan Strome, whose brother just enjoyed a breakthrough season for the New York Islanders. Around the time of their second first-round pick (to be determined by where the Chicago Blackhawks finish), you can bet they will give strong consideration to Jake DeBrusk, the gritty and skilled son of ex-Oilers’ pugilist Louis DeBrusk. And when the Coyotes pick early in the second round, it would not shock us if they tabbed Ryan Pilon, a tough defenseman with more upside than his father Rich, ex-longtime stalwart rearguard for the New York Islanders.

The other aspect of a game Maloney covets is speed. At the top of the Coyotes’ prospect rankings are Domi, Dvorak and Duclair — all superb skaters.

Though the first three picks in Maloney’s last three drafts were all CHL players, Maloney is not adverse to original thinking. The best pick of his managerial career was Ekman-Larsson, taken sixth overall in 2009 despite being ranked closer to the middle of the first round by most scouting bureaus. He is not afraid to risk early-round picks on players from unpopular locations, such as in the first round of 2008 when he selected Mikkel Boedker out of Denmark and then Russian Viktor Tikhonov. Maloney is worthy of respect in that he identifies what he wants and goes after it, not caring what the popular opinions of scouting bureaus and the hockey media will be.

Still, when trying to predict a Maloney draft pick, bet on the CHL. Running the Coyotes’ drafts since 2007, 34 of Maloney’s 57 picks, or 59 percent, have been from the OHL, QMJHL or WHL. Also 29 of these picks, or 51 percent, have been players of Canadian descent while another 15 players, or 27 percent, were American-born.

Arizona Coyotes 2015 Draft Preview

As previously stated, while the Arizona prospect pool is absolutely loaded with depth at LW and C, their organization actively covets a two-way, first-line center — something extremely important in a Pacific Division featuring such players as Ryan Getzlaf, Anze Kopitar, Joe Thornton, Henrik Sedin, Sean Monahan and, imminently, Connor McDavid. The Coyotes will certainly use one of their first-rounders to address this need. While they are loaded at LW, they are a bit thin organizationally at RW, and one can expect Maloney to spend some later picks trying to rectify that. The Coyotes have a similar situation on the blue line, where top skater Ekman-Larsson and top defensive prospect Gormley both shoot lefty.

In addition, the last quality goaltender Maloney has drafted was Scott Darling in the sixth round of the 2007 draft. The Coyotes may have to take a flyer on a young netminder with upside in the second or third round.

1st Round (3rd overall)

After starting out historic with the imminent selections of McDavid and Eichel first and second, this is the selection where the 2015 draft gets intriguing.

In addition to the names addressed above, a third name often mentioned is Mitch Marner, listed as a center but more likely to make an NHL impact at RW. Marner has more sheer offensive upside than any player in the draft side of the prodigal pair of McDavid/Eichel, and has been compared to Patrick Kane.

What would we do? It is a difficult choice to be certain. This is where guys like Don Maloney make or break their careers. What if, in 2007, the Chicago Blackhawks had drafted Kyle Turris (a player many scouts had rated first overall) over Patrick Kane, and Kane had fallen to the then-Phoenix Coyotes? Chicago might still be searching for their first Stanley Cup since the 1950s and Arizona might not be going through yet another rebuild. We would look to trade down further in the top 10, get an additional second round pick, and take Barzal or Zacha.

What will the Coyotes do? We are guessing they will go with Strome. The Coyotes’ top need is a No. 1 center, and their propensities are do draft NHL legacies and CHL players, both of which apply to Strome. The Erie center is also a very safe pick — while his upside is Eric Staal, his downside is, well… Jordan Staal. Strome will be a quality all-around center, our only question is whether his scoring upside is as a point-a-game star or a 50-point contributor.

1st Round (27th overall, unless Chicago makes Stanley Cup Final, then 29th or 30th)

In the Todays Slapshot two-round mock draft, we had the team taking LW Jake DeBrusk, a quality player we love and rank quite highly, and also an NHL legacy who plays in the CHL. Though we do not rule out this possibility, the Coyotes’ needs beyond center are for right-shooting players, both RW and RD.

Due to these factors, we have recently strongly considered the idea that the Coyotes will instead draft RW Jeremy Bracco, an offensive wizard playing for the US-NTDP, a team Maloney has used later first round picks on before (Connor Murphy, 20th overall, 2011). Bracco plays a similar game to the undersized Mitch Marner, but is even smaller, a fact which has cost him in most scouting bureaus’ rankings. However, we feel the playoff success of Tyler Johnson will go even further to dispel the myth that smaller and highly-skilled players cannot succeed in the NHL.

2nd Round (32nd overall)

If indeed the Coyotes draft a top-line center and high-upside RW with their top two picks, we feel they will address their lack of depth at RD with their early second round pick. Nicolas Meloche and Noah Juulsen are both high-upside players who fit this description, Meloche offering more toughness and physicality with Juulsen offering more speed and offense. We love both players, both of whom should be available at No. 32 and would fit organizational needs, but it would also not shock us if Maloney fluttered back to the legacy route and took LD Ryan Pilon.

2nd Round (61st overall, unless Rangers lose in Conference or Cup Finals, in which case 59th or 60th)

This would be a terrific place for the Coyotes to look at the goaltending position. We think top-rated options Ilya Samsonov, Mackenzie Blackwood and Daniel Vladar will be gone here, but who knows with goalies? Predicting where net minders will be drafted and projecting their potential are the most difficult tasks in forecasting a draft. If all three of our favorites are gone, we also like Matej Tomek, a very talented kid who may be under-scouted due to the fact that he currently plies his trade in the seldom-spoken of NAHL.

In Conclusion

Unlike the teams rebuilding who draft before them (Edmonton and Buffalo), the Coyotes are not close to turning the corner and competing. They are several years away from being a legit playoff team.

This is not to say that Coyotes’ fans should start stocking up on anti-depressants. Maloney is building the club with a purpose, they have a great deal of depth in the prospect pipeline, and have the chance to add to this with several quality talents in an extraordinarily deep 2015 draft.

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