Senate:

• FL-Sen: St. Leo University takes a look at the open Senate race, but finds tons of undecideds all around. The most useful tidbit is probably the generic ballot, where the Democrats lead 42-39. But when Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy is tested against any named Republican foe, over half the respondents say they're undecided, so it's hard to read much into it. St. Leo also surveyed both parties primaries but the sample sizes are each below 200, way too few to draw any conclusions from.

• GA-Sen: Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson just revealed that he was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease back in 2013, though he says he's still seeking re-election next year. Isakson, who is 70 years old, says he's in the "early stages" of his disease, and an accompanying statement from his physician describes his symptoms as "mild." He currently has no Democratic opponent.

• IL-Sen: This is just silliness. Last week, Illinois' senior senator, Dick Durbin, sent out a fundraising email on behalf of Rep. Tammy Duckworth's Senate campaign, which every reasonable observer rightly interpreted as an endorsement. Now, though, Durbin is claiming he did not endorse Duckworth in the Democratic primary, which is nonsense. In fact, he did far more, regardless of what you call it. A formal "endorsement" issued in a press release is almost meaningless; raising money for someone, on the other hand, counts for a lot. There's no explaining Durbin's ridiculous hedging, but it's not like anyone is fooled by these linguistic games.

• IN-Sen: On Wednesday, Republican Rep. Todd Rokita announced that he would be staying in the House rather than seeking the open Senate seat. Rokita's district is safely red and he has no credible primary challengers on the horizon, so we shouldn't expect to hear much more from him this cycle.

Currently, Marlin Stutzman is the only member of the state's House delegation seeking the GOP nomination, though Todd Young may join him soon. Stutzman hails from the tea party wing of the party and he's caused trouble for the Republican establishment before, notably in January when he voted against re-electing John Boehner as speaker. However, Stutzman is aware that the party doesn't want a repeat of 2012, when the tea party-powered Richard Mourdock won the nomination and cost his party the seat in November.

As The National Journal reports, Stutzman has been hiring experienced operatives to help him win over more-establishment flavored primary voters and keep him from being caricatured as a far-right wack job. But that hasn't kept him from winning the endorsement of the Senate Conservatives Fund, and the Club For Growth definitely sounds interested in supporting him too.

Gubernatorial:

• VT-Gov, AL: Gov. Peter Shumlin's Monday retirement announcement came as a surprise to plenty of Vermont Democrats, and it's going to take a while for things to sort themselves out. Rep. Peter Welch, who represents the entire state in the House, confirmed that he's considering a campaign, and he'd probably be the only one capable of clearing the primary field. Welch, who was his party's nominee all the way back in 1990, didn't give a timeline for when he'll decide or any real hint on which way he's leaning.

If Welch jumps in, plenty of his would-be gubernatorial rivals may decide to seek his open House seat instead. And there are more than enough Democrats who are interested in the governor's mansion. Here's a round-up of the names we've heard, along with any information about their intentions:



• Chittenden County State's Attorney T.J. Donovan: Didn't respond to questions about his plans when asked • Former state Sen., 2010 gubernatorial candidate, and Google executive Matt Dunne: "[A]bsolutely considering a run" • Former state Sen. and former diplomat Peter Galbraith: Publicly considering • Secretary of Natural Resources, former Secretary of State, and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Deb Markowitz: Publicly considering • Transportation Secretary Sue Minter: Didn't rule anything out • State Sen. and 2008 Progressive Party nominee Anthony Pollina: "[D]efinitely something that I'm interested in." • Former Lt. Gov., 2002 gubernatorial nominee, and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Doug Racine: Needs to think about it • Agriculture Secretary Chuck Ross: Didn't rule it out, though plans to continue current work • State House Speaker Shap Smith: "[S]eriously considering running."

We do have some noes from Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger , and state Sens. Tim Ashe and Jane Kitchel. Secretary of State Jim Condos also sounded very uninterested when asked on Monday.

While Vermont is heavily Democratic, it's quite possible for the GOP to win the governor's mansion. Lt. Gov. Phil Scott reiterated that he's considering even with Shumlin out of the race, and there's no question that he's Team Red's top choice. However, his company might deter him in the end. While there's no obvious conflict of interest between Scott's role as co-owner of DuBois Construction and as lieutenant governor, the governor does play a role in state contract bidding. If Scott sought a promotion, he'd need to separate himself from DuBois.

If Scott says no, Team Red has a few options. Former Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie only narrowly lost to Shumlin in 2010, and he's acknowledged that he's thinking about a comeback. Businessman Scott Milne came very close to upsetting Shumlin last year and he's also interested in trying again, though he says he's "more likely to support Phil Scott than oppose him in a primary." Ex-Auditor and 2012 nominee Randy Brock and 2014 Libertarian nominee Dan Feliciano also are talking about running for the GOP nomination, though neither of them did particularly well in the past.

One interesting but unpredictable option is retired Wall Street banker Bruce Lisman, who says he's giving it "some thought." But while Lisman recently appeared at a fundraiser for the state GOP, he continues to identify as an independent and it's quite possible he won't run under either party's banner. Needless to say, the last thing the GOP would want is a wealthy conservative independent competing with them.

House:

• AZ-02: Democratic state Rep. Bruce Wheeler formed an exploratory committee to challenge freshman Republican Martha McSally a few months ago, but Wheeler recently exited the race due to a torn retina (his prognosis is good). But Team Blue may not need to wait for another candidate.

Fellow state Rep. Victoria Steele says she's forming an exploratory committee and specifically cited McSally's vote for a 20-week abortion ban as a reason she may run. Steele also insists that she won't be deterred by an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision that could let the GOP redraw what's currently a 50-48 Romney seat, arguing that Democrats need to get started early if they want to beat McSally. Steele may have some company in the primary if she gets in: Ex-state Rep. Matt Heinz is interested in running again (he badly lost a 2012 primary to then-Rep. Ron Barber), and some other potential candidates include state Rep. Randy Friese and businesswoman Nan Walden.

• CA-10: What the ...? Democrat Michael Eggman just launched a bid for a rematch against GOP Rep. Jeff Denham, but he's also filed paperwork to run for the state Assembly, too. Not only does California law forbid seeking two offices at once, but it would be comically impractical even if you could. What's more, Eggman's intro email blast was pretty explicit—"I am running again for Congress"—so this is just weird. He should put out a short statement to avoid any confusion.

• DE-AL, Gov: Democratic Rep. John Carney has been mulling a gubernatorial bid for a while, and he notably didn't comment on his 2016 plans when asked on Tuesday. If Carney wages a second campaign for the governor's mansion (he narrowly lost the 2008 primary to now-Gov. Jack Markell), two Democratic legislators sound ready to succeed him.

State Rep. Bryon Short confirmed that he's "strongly considering seeking the office" if it's open, while state Sen. Bryan Townsend also publicly expressed interest. Both men hail from New Castle County, by far the largest and bluest of Delaware's three counties. But if Carney leaves, there are plenty of Democrats who might seek this statewide district. Obama won Delaware 59-40 and this seat is likely to stay in Democratic hands regardless of what Carney does.

• FL-18: Five Republicans are currently running for this open South Florida swing seat and plenty of others are considering, but decorated veteran Brian Mast may have one advantage his opponents don't. Mast appeared on a Fox News program shortly after he kicked off his campaign, a good sign that he has name-recognition among influential conservatives. Mast has never held elected office before but if national Republicans take a liking to him, he could raise the money he'll need to break away from the pack.

• MD-08: Former Montgomery County Councilor Valerie Ervin has confirmed that she'll seek the Democratic nomination for this safe district, with an official campaign kickoff to come next week. Ervin joins (deep breath) Dels. Kumar Barve and Ana Sol Gutierrez, state Sen. Jamie Raskin, former Obama Administration official Will Jawando, and former Marriott executive Kathleen Matthews. So yeah, it's kind of a crowded race.

• OH-14: GOP Rep. David Joyce turned back a primary challenge from then-state Rep. Matt Lynch by a meh 55-45 margin last year, and Lynch has announced that he's back for a rematch. Last time, Lynch kicked off his campaign only a few months before Election Day and didn't raise much money, and the tea partying politician seems aware that he'll need to change his strategy this time. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and American Hospital Association spent about $450,000 on Joyce's behalf while Lynch didn't enjoy much outside help, and Lynch is trying to avoid that imbalance again, telling supporters that "[t]he contributions I receive this month will send an important message to other potential supporters."

While a better-funded Lynch may be able to get more traction this time, Joyce will have a few advantages he didn't have last time. Joyce was nominated by the county party leaders in 2012 after Rep. Steve LaTourette dropped out after the primary, so he'd never gone before primary voters until last year. And while the 2014 match was a low-turnout affair, next year's race will coincide with the state's presidential primary. If there's still a competitive GOP presidential race raging by the time Ohio goes to vote, it should bring out more casual primary voters who are likely to vote for more familiar names like Joyce's downballot.

Romney carried this suburban Cleveland seat 51-48 and Team Blue would almost certainly have a better shot here if Lynch pulls off an upset, though no credible Democrats have expressed interest yet.

Other Races:

• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso speaks:



Rhode Island HD-33: This was a Democratic hold; Carol McEntee won the four-way race with 40 percent of the vote. Republican Robert Trager finished second with 36 percent, while independents Jamie McKnight Jr. and Elizabeth Candas ended up with 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

: Tuesday was primary night in Virginia, as voters chose their nominee's for this fall's legislative and local elections. One of the important contests was the Democratic primary for the open SD-10 in suburban Richmond, where Chesterfield County Supervisor Dan Gecker won with the help of Gov. Terry McAuliffe . Democrats need to net one seat to retake the chamber, and this GOP-held 50-48 Obama seat will be a major battleground.

Both parties also got their nominees for Northern Virginia's open SD-29, where Democratic incumbent Charles Colgan is retiring. On the blue side, Alexandria city employee Jeremy McPike defeated Atif Qarni (who lost a hotly-contested delegate race in 2013) and Del. Michael Futrell for the right to face GOP Manassas Mayor Hal Parrish. Obama won this district 64-35, but weak off-year turnout and Parrish's strength gives the Republicans a shot at a pickup. In Richmond's safely-blue SD-16, Sen. Rosalyn Dance easily turned back a primary challenge from Del. Joseph Preston. The general election between Dance and controversial (to say the very least) independent ex-Del. Joe Morrissey is likely to generate plenty of attention even if it won't be close.

There was also a lot to watch in the state House, even though the GOP is all-but-assured to keep their majority intact. The high-profile race of the night was between Speaker William Howell and former Stafford County Supervisor Susan Stimpson. While Howell is quite conservative, Stimpson ran to his right and tried to replicate Dave Brat's upset win against Eric Cantor. However, Howell took his race seriously and ended up prevailing 62-38. There was one surprising result on the Democratic side, as longtime Del. Johnny Joannou lost his safely blue seat to former Portsmouth Councilor Steve Heretick 53-47. Joannou voted against Medicaid expansion and held conservative positions on guns and abortion, and McAuliffe himself helped recruit Heretick.

And speaking of Joe Morrissey, we may have some stability in his old state House district. Morrissey made national news when he resigned from this seat after pleading guilty to statutory rape, won it back as an independent in a January special, and then resigned again after he moved away to run for state Senate. Morrissey forged an alliance with former Richmond Mayor Leonidas Young, who served 15 months in prison over influence peddling and fraud. But voters seem to have had enough, and Henrico School Board member Lamont Bagby beat Young 73-17 in the Democratic primary for this safe seat.

There was one other notable result in the Democratic primary, as Alexandria Mayor Bill Euille narrowly lost his bid for a fifth term to Vice Mayor Allison Silberberg. Euille, who ran for VA-08 last year, faced criticism over development that could have threatened the city's historical atmosphere. Another VA-08 alumnus, radio host Mark Levine, fared better, winning the primary in a safe House seat.

• Toledo Mayor: We could see a crowded November special election here, and we won't have any primary or runoff to winnow the field down. Democratic interim Mayor Paula Hicks-Hudson and independent Sandy Drabik Collins, the widow of former Mayor Mike Collins, are currently the only notable declared candidates for now. However, GOP Councilor Rob Ludeman, who ran for mayor in 2005, is the latest politician to express interest. Toledo is a Democratic-leaning city but a lot can happen in a chaotic race like this. But former Mayor Mike Bell, a conservative independent, is also mulling a comeback, and he could do some damage to Ludeman. Another ex-Mayor, Democrat Carty Finkbeiner, is also considering.

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.

