Duterte fails credibility test

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has once again caused massive and unnecessary diplomatic upheaval. During a trip to China last week, he announced a new policy to "separate" from the United States, in both military and economic fields, only to soften his stance three days later when he was back in Manila. His remarks, however, left his cabinet, his country, Washington and the region in complete confusion.

What is clear is that the mercurial Mr Duterte is aligning with Beijing, moving his own country into uncharted diplomatic waters. That is a fitting metaphor. While the historically close relations with the US are important to millions of Filipinos, the real importance of Mr Duterte's speeches and actions lie in the South China Sea issue where China is in a territorial dispute with the Philippines and other nations.

Mr Duterte has been on an anti-US bend since August during which he has displayed undiplomatic and obviously personal animosity to the US.

His "separation" speech to China's leadership and business leaders last week threw a wrench into US President Barack Obama's most important foreign policy plan. The US "pivot to Asia" strategy seems to be jeopardised. It can't be revived, absent a complete reset in the Philippines. There are plenty of coup rumours from Manila, but no action. That is not to mention that coups in the Philippines have an abysmal success rate. Not one has succeeded since the country became independent.

No one can blame China for stepping gleefully into Mr Duterte's diplomatic vacuum. The Philippine leader, now just short of four months in office, has effectively handed physical control of the South China Sea to Beijing. This is what China has been aggressively pursuing for years.

Mr Duterte has essentially run up the white flag on every shoal and island in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. He has scuttled the entire coalition aiming to ensure freedom of movement throughout the area. Asean policy now means nothing. After decades of trying to encourage China to sign a binding treaty on peace in the South China Sea, Asean no longer has the Philippines' support. While Mr Duterte's words should never be taken at face value, he appears to have decided to totally support Beijing's claim to "own" the whole area.

Mr Duterte's cabinet members last week were once again shocked and awed by their boss's speech and actions. Secretaries once against tried the "what the president really means" approach. But fewer are buying the theory that Mr Duterte is just a bit inarticulate. More and more, it appears he says what he means, and means what he says. The bloody and indefensible murders that he repeatedly refers to as a drug war are ample proof of that.

With his frequent outbursts and amazing switches of policy, Mr Duterte is doing a disservice to his country, but especially to the region. The Philippines is strategically and diplomatically crucial to Southeast Asia and Asean. Of course every country is entitled to formulate a foreign policy in its own best interests. But a responsible leader consults allies and neighbours to mitigate shocks.

There can be no doubt Mr Duterte has the authority to govern like a tin-pot leader. But the region, Washington and possibly even China wish he would govern like a responsible president.

During his current three-day visit to Japan, one of the US's strongest allies in Asia, it remains to be seen if Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe can convince Mr Duterte that his confusing and distressing remarks will not be helpful and that diplomatic upheaval is unnecessary.