Every year at this time I join a growing number of journalistic flagellants in enumerating things that I got wrong in the previous annum’s worth of columns. When I started the practice, the annual audit sometimes felt a little bit too scrupulous, like picking nits with my own work. But the last two years have been different: As Donald Trump’s ascent turned all sorts of supposed wisdom into folly, I’ve found myself with a great deal of mistaken analysis to acknowledge and live down.

I could write this year’s column in the same Trump-centric spirit, by focusing on my published fears about his presidency that have not yet been borne out — particularly the ripple effects I predicted for the economy, for social order and world peace, all of which are thus far less disturbed than I had feared.

But focusing on Trump again would also reveal the limits of this yearly format, because the Trump era is not even close to over yet, and year-over-year developments are generally the wrong way to assess a presidency’s impact and the predictions that preceded it.

So the Trump fans currently demanding that anti-Trump conservatives come over to their side because he’s appointed decent judges and crushed the Islamic State should keep their powder dry. Now is a good time for intellectual humility, and for reserving judgment on an administration whose ultimate effects on domestic tranquillity and the Pax Americana remain uncertain.