[Editor's note: Promoted from the FanPosts.] --- In recent months I've heard a lot of chatter about the 2017 (and beyond) outlook for the Eagles as we wrap up free agency and head into the all important NFL Draft. Opinions have been mixed, with some of the more pessimistic BGN members being extremely concerned about our defense (primarily our cornerback situation, which was obviously awful last year), while some of the more optimistic members believe we're just one good draft away from being perennial contenders in the NFC. This got me thinking about the 2016 season and how painful it was to watch this team blow leads and squander opportunities in close games...

A simple Google search of "NFL teams 2016 record in close games" yielded a USA Today article where author Steven Ruiz reversed the outcome of all games decided by 7 points or less and analyzed the impact on team records and playoff standings. I found the results to be extremely interesting (I'm posting the standings from the article below):

Added/subtracted wins…

Chargers +7 wins – 12-4

Bills +4 wins – 11-5

Jaguars +6 wins – 9-7

Eagles +5 wins – 12-4

Bears +5 wins – 8-8

49ers +4 wins – 6-10

Panthers +4 wins – 10-6

Browns +4 wins – 5-11

Bengals +4 wins – 10-5-1

Saints +3 wins – 10-6

Cardinals +3 wins – 10-5-1

Vikings +2 wins – 10-6

Jets +1 wins – 6-10

Rams +1 wins – 5-11

Broncos +1 wins – 10-6

Falcons 0 wins – 11-5

Ravens -1 wins – 7-9

Packers -1 wins – 9-7

Colts -1 wins – 7-9

Buccaneers -2 wins – 7-9

Redskins -2 wins – 6-9-1

Seahawks -2 wins – 8-7-1

Steelers -2 wins – 9-7

Patriots -2 wins – 12-4

Titans -3 wins – 6-10

Lions -3 wins – 6-10

Chiefs -3 wins – 9-7

Giants -4 wins – 7-9

Cowboys -5 wins – 8-8

Dolphins -6 wins – 4-12

Raiders -7 wins – 5-11

Texans -6 wins – 3-13

And here’s what the division standings would look like…

NFC East

Eagles 12-4

Cowboys 8-8

Giants 7-9

Redskins 6-9-1

NFC North

Vikings 10-6

Packers 9-7

Bears 8-8

Lions 6-10

NFC South

Falcons 11-5

Panthers 10-6

Saints 10-6

Buccaneers 7-9

(Panthers ahead of Saints on common games tie-breaker.)

NFC West

Cardinals 10-5-1

Seahawks 8-7-1

49ers 6-10

Rams 5-11

AFC East

Patriots 12-4

Bills 11-5

Jets 6-10

Dolphins 4-12

AFC North

Bengals 10-5-1

Steelers 9-7

Ravens 7-9

Browns 5-11

AFC South

Jaguars 9-7

Colts 7-9

Titans 6-10

Texans 3-13

AFC West

Chargers 12-4

Broncos 10-6

Chiefs 9-7

Raiders 5-11

And the playoff seedings…

AFC

1. Patriots

2. Chargers

3. Bengals

4. Jaguars

5. Bills

6. Broncos

NFC

1. Eagles

2. Falcons

3. Cardinals

4. Vikings

5. Panthers

6. Saints

...

It's pretty amazing how unlucky/not clutch the Eagles were in close games last season, but at the same time, this is an encouraging sign for the team heading into 2017. With arguably the worst receiver and cornerback corps in the league last year, the Eagles were still extremely competitive (with the exception of an awful 3 week stretch from weeks 11-13 where we were blown out by the Seahawks, Packers and Bengals). When the Eagles won, they won in convincing fashion (i.e. by double-digits) and when we lost we either blew a lead or had a shot to win at the end most of the time.

This got me thinking about the close games we lost last season and how things could have been different. To analyze this in more detail, I went through each close game the Eagles played and adjusted their win/loss record based on their "win probability" in the second-half of games (using a really awesome tool on pro-football-reference.com that calculates win probability for each team over the course of a game). I'm calculating this by taking the Eagles highest win probability in each game and using that as a way to calculate "expected wins". In the close games the Eagles lost, if their win probability was >50% in the second-half, I take the win probability and multiply by 1 and add to their win total. In close games the Eagles won (only one game this season), if their opponent had a >50% win probability in the second-half I would add to the eagles loss total (note: this never happened, as the Eagles only won one close game this season where they were firmly in control for the entire second-half).

Here are the results:

Week 5: @ Lions (L 23-24): Eagles had a ~86% win probability with 3:35 left in Q4 (adjustment: +0.86 wins).

Week 6: @ Redskins (L 20-27): Eagles never had a win probability >30% in the second-half (no adjustment).

Week 8: @ Cowboys (L 23-29 OT): Eagles had a ~97% win probability with 8:49 left in Q4 (adjustment: +0.97 wins) - side note: this is probably the most painful loss I can remember since losing to the Pats in the 2004-2005 Super Bowl.

Week 9: @ Giants (L 23-28): Eagles never had a win probability >42% in the second-half. An argument can be made that our actual win probability should have been higher if we had just taken field goals early in the game, but there's no way to account for that in the win probability (no adjustment).

Week 14: Redskins (L 22-27): Eagles had a ~77% win probability with 13:45 left in Q3 (adjustment: +0.77 wins).

Week 15: @ Ravens (L 26-27): Eagles had a ~50% win probability with 0:17 left in Q4 (adjustment: +0.50 wins).

Week 16: Giants (W 24-19): Eagles lowest win probability was ~64% with 2:32 left in Q4 (no adjustment).

This recaps all of the close games the Eagles played in 2016. While I realize these calculations aren't perfect, if we adjust the Eagles W/L record based on this analysis, we get a 2016 record of 10.1-5.9, or ~10-6 if we round down. This is without adjusting for possible changes in decision-making in the week 9 Giants game. If the Eagles would simply have closed out games in which they had a strong win probability (and had the ball bounce their way here and there), they could have realistically finished with a 10-6 record - good enough for the 2nd wildcard spot in the NFC. This is with likely the worst receivers and secondary in the league.

With the additions the Eagles have made this offseason to improve the WR group and potential additions we could make in the secondary via the Draft, I'm hopeful that the Eagles will be able to finish close games and take the next step to the playoffs this season.