Predict-Ability Week Three Breakdown

Week three of the NFL season felt like the rebound week for the top tier of fantasy football draft picks. There were noticeable omissions from the top 12 performers at each position over the first two weeks, but a few of them made their mark this past week. A quarter of the top 12 quarterbacks and running backs made their first top 12 appearances after having roughly top 12 average draft positions at their respective position. The biggest rebound, though, came at the wide receiver position as half of the week three top 12 performers made their first appearance in the top 12 after being consistent draft picks within the first three rounds. Now that there is three weeks of data to digest there is finally an opportunity to start looking at who are the early standouts regarding consistency and elite week production.

What is Predict-Ability?

Having players that are more predictable allows us to have the floor that makes our teams competitive each week, but the thing that seems to excite fantasy players the most is a players ceiling. Ceiling and upside are terms that get attached to different players constantly, but how often do these upside players really post weeks at the top of their position? Tod Burros examined this concept in his Heatmap series for Rotoviz, in which he illustrates how often different players hit certain point thresholds. Being able to identify players who are more predictable and understanding a players weekly ceiling allows us to make better start/sit decisions and build our fantasy teams to have a mix of consistency and upside.

To make better start/sit decisions, it is important to understand the ability of each player to return on a given projection or their likelihood to exceed expectations and perform amongst the elite of their position on any given week.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Consistency Stand Outs

Matt Ryan, ATL: CoV 13.071, Top 12 33.3%, Top 24 100%

Matt Ryan has been the most consistent quarterback through the first three weeks despite likely letting his fantasy owners down in the process. Ryan has scored within 5 points of himself each week with only a 4.5 point difference between his max and min. This consistency shows that he hasn’t had any situations yet that have caused his fantasy production to struggle, but he has been unable to post a huge fantasy performance yet this year. The Falcons host Buffalo this week as nine and a half point favorites and this is a great opportunity for Ryan to continue his consistency while potentially having a chance at his first top 6 performance of the season.

Dak Prescott, DAL: CoV 15.99, Top 12 100%, Top 24 100%

Dak Prescott finds himself in elite company after the first three weeks as only himself, and Aaron Rodgers have performed inside the top 12 each week so far this season. Prescott’s production has landed him firmly between 7th and 12th at the quarterback position each week regardless of the difficulty of his opponent. Dak had his best performance yet this season last week and just finished 12th at the position with the entire quarterback position seeing a spike in production in week three.

Quarterback Elite Production Stand Outs

Tom Brady, NE: CoV 47.9, Top 3 66.67%,Top 6 66.67%,Top 12 66.67%, Top 24 100%

After a tough loss on opening night, the New England Patriots have had to throw the ball a ton in their past two games to stay competitive and pull off wins. The Patriots passing defense has been a disaster so far this season, giving up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than any other team. To counter this, Brady is being asked to throw early and often. I expect that trend to continue, but it’s not like if you had Brady you were benching him regardless.

Carson Wentz, PHI: CoV 30.245,Top 3 33.33%,Top 6 66.67%,Top 12 66.67%, Top 24 100%

Carson Wentz took a huge step back last week after starting the season as the most consistently elite quarterback producer, posting back to back top 6 performances to start the season. Wentz was a victim of game script more than anything else, as week three became the first week that the Eagles were able to sustain a successful rushing attack. His matchup this week against the Chargers could easily become a shootout as the Eagles are riddled with injuries in their secondary and Philip Rivers will be looking to pick them apart.

Running Backs

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Running Back Consistency Stand Outs

Melvin Gordon, LAC: CoV 19.949, Top 12 66.67%, Top 24 100%

After back to back top 10 performances to start the season, Melvin Gordon had the slightest of setbacks in week three falling to 15th in fantasy production. However, if these are the sort of drop-offs that we can expect from Gordon moving forward, he could prove to be one of the most consistent fantasy performers this season. The biggest shift in production for Gordon came solely in the passing game as he went from averaging six receptions a game through the first two weeks to not catching a single pass this past Sunday. This might be the smallest of buy windows that exist for Gordon, who should be an elite producer going forward.

Leonard Fournette, JAC: CoV 21.003, Top 12 33.3%, Top 24 100%

Similar to Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette has yet to fall outside of the top 15 at running back this season. Both of these running backs have the benefit of being their offenses primary option as well as their go to on the goal line. Their ability to find the end zone has been what has supported their consistency the most as each has scored a touchdown every game they’ve played this season

Running Back Elite Production Stand Outs

Todd Gurley, LAR: CoV 30.967,Top 3 66.67%,Top 6 100%,Top 12 100%, Top 24 100%

As insane as Kareem Hunt’s production has been to start the season, from an elite weeks perspective Todd Gurley just barely edges him out. Gurley and Hunt are the only two players to perform in the top 6 of their position each week this season and Gurley has been in the top 3 in two of those games. Touchdowns are the name of the game when it comes to elite weeks, and Gurley has scored at a two-touchdown per game pace thus far. I expect to see Gurley have a bit of touchdown regression moving forward, but the usage that he is seeing as the focal point in this young Rams offense points to him continuing to post elite weeks as the season progresses

Chris Thompson, WAS: CoV 32.189,Top 3 33.33%,Top 6 66.67%,Top 12 100%, Top 24 100%

The surprise of the year so far from a production standpoint has to be Chris Thompson. As a running back who is relegated to a mostly passing downs role his production through three weeks is off the charts efficient. Thompson currently has four touchdowns on only 27 touches this season. To put that into perspective, in week three Todd Gurley had more carries than Thompson has had total touches on the season. Thompson’s ability for huge fantasy performances doesn’t feel like a total fluke so far, though, with his consistency is the passing game. He’ll be a very difficult player to start just because of the uncertainty towards the number of times he’ll touch the football, but his upside is the ideal form of a knockout punch that you ideally want from your flex position.

Wide Receivers

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Wide Receiver Consistency Stand Outs

Jordy Nelson, GB: CoV 7.38, Top 12 100%, Top 24 100%, Top 36 100%

Jordy Nelson is currently the most consistent player at any position in fantasy football through the first three weeks. With the exception of him missing week two, the other two weeks this season he has scored over 20 points in each week. Of all the other Wide Receivers that come close to Jordy in terms of consistency, none have done so with such elite production. Only Stefon Diggs, Antonio Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins have also posted two top 12 weeks, and of course, they did so in three starts instead of two as Jordy has done.

Mohamed Sanu, ATL: CoV 11.82, Top 12 0%, Top 24 33.3%, Top 36 100%

Mohamed Sanu has been a late-round flier that has turned into a consistent 3rd wide receiver option on most fantasy rosters this season. He found the end zone for the first time in week three, but the exciting thing for him so far has been his usage. Sanu has been receiving an average of seven targets a game and, with Julio Jones limited in practice this week with a back injury; I expect that trend to continue.

Wide Receiver Elite Production Stand Outs

Stefon Diggs, MIN: CoV 70.75, Top 3 66.67%, Top 6 66.67%, Top 12 66.67%, Top 24 66.67%

It should come as no surprise that Stefon Diggs is featured as the elite producer so far amongst wide receivers. Diggs has two top 3 performances this season and has shockingly done so with two different quarterbacks throwing him the ball. No other wide receiver even has two top 6 performances thus far, and only four other wide receivers have multiple top 12 weeks.

Chris Hogan, NE: CoV 67.76, Top 3 0%, Top 6 0%, Top 12 66.67%, Top 24 66.67%

After seeing almost non-existent usage in week one, Chris Hogan joins Jordy Nelson and Antonio Brown as the only wide receivers to repeat top 12 performances the past two weeks. As Tom Brady has been forced to throw the ball more to stay in games, his receiving core has had to step up around him, and Hogan has been one of the major benefactors of that. With the New England defense not looking to rebound anytime soon, Hogan could be a huge asset moving forward and a great trade target if owners do not realize just what they have.

Tight Ends

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Tight End Consistency Stand Out

Zach Ertz, PHI: CoV 9.47, Top 3 33.3%, Top 6 66.67%, Top 12 100%

Zach Ertz is the only tight end to be able to sustain a top 12 performance in each of the first three weeks this season. His usage is the Philidelphia offense has been greater than the usage of any tight end in their respective offenses as he is averaging seven receptions on nine targets each game. Ertz has been able to post huge weeks regardless of how his supporting quarterback, Carson Wentz, performs. Ertz had his best performance of the year this past week as Wentz had his worst of the year

Tight EndElite Production Stand Out

Charles Clay, CHI: CoV 48.94, Top 3 0%, Top 6 66.67%, Top 12 66.67%

Charles Clay is the only tight end, outside of Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski, to have multiple top 6 performances this season. In both of Clay’s top 6 performances, he received over six targets and hauled in a touchdown. Because tight end is the position that typically is the lowest scoring being able to consistently score touchdowns can allow for some elite fantasy production. Clay scored in both of his two top 6 performances, each of which came at home and in Bill’s wins. Targeting home tight ends in winnable matchups should allow for similar tight end streaming successes moving forward.