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Were it just a matter of pedigree, Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly would be a first-round pick. His uncle, Jim, is in the Hall of Fame after having a fair amount of success with the Buffalo Bills.

Were it just a matter of talent, the same might hold true. As one scout told Emily Kaplan of The MMQB, "No doubt he has an NFL arm."

But talent and pedigree are just a small part of the story with the 6'2", 224-pounder.

There are the off-field incidents. A lot of off-field incidents. Running onto the field during a brawl in a high school game this past fall. Dismissal from Clemson for "conduct detrimental to the team." A 2014 arrest after another fight in Buffalo that got Kelly's invitation to the NFL Scouting Combine revoked.

As one AFC East scout told Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, Kelly has also been prone to bad decisions on the field, whether it's holding the ball too long or forcing a throw into a nonexistent window.

"He's okay. I think he could be a low-end NFL starter," the scout said. "I just wouldn't want to put my name behind him because I think it will come back and bite you with on-field and off-field mistakes. We value leadership at quarterback and I don't trust his."

Then there are the injuries. Kelly tore the ACL in his right knee at Clemson and did so again last November. His throwing session at Ole Miss' pro day—a vitally important exercise after he was uninvited to the combine—was cut short when he aggravated a wrist injury. He underwent surgery on the wrist Monday, which will prevent him from throwing for three months.

All of those questions make it difficult to trust Kelly, suggested NFL.com's Bucky Brooks.

"It continues to really make it difficult to make a strong case for him to be a draftable guy late in the draft," Brooks said. "He has talent, but (with) the character and the talent, and you factor in the injuries, I don't know if the positives outweigh the negatives when it comes to a draft situation."

Kelly's start against Alabama last September was a perfect microcosm of his career. He threw for 421 yards and three scores, at times looking unstoppable against the Crimson Tide. Kelly also had two turnovers returned for scores in a five-point loss.

Someone is going to roll the dice on Kelly's arm and agility, as NFL teams are in a constant state of desperation under center. But whether anything ever comes of his considerable gifts is a crapshoot.