On a cold night in November of 2010, Lionel Messi scored a brilliant goal Real Sociedad. It wasn’t the greatest goal he’d ever scored, nor did it carry a great deal of importance, but it was a perfect example of the early role he played under Pep Guardiola. Using a combination of quick passing to try and engage the defensive block, along with the use of positioning that sought to stretch defenses horizontally and create space between defenders, Messi was allowed to what he does so well; attack the central defenders.

Attacking the very heart of defensive systems is part of what made Guardiola’s Barcelona so special and subsequently what Guardiola tended to focus on offensively. In addition to being one of, if not the most domineering style of football of the modern era, the core concepts of the philosophy enacted in the early 2010’s were tailor made to expose the fallacies of the contemporary game. Juego de posicion and its use of five players across a horizontal space was a perfect response to the common four man defense of the day.

Fast forward to 2017 and a further evolution of the very concepts that allowed for Guardiola’s initial success are what’s being asked of him now. After a relatively disappointing first season in the Premier League, many have started to question his ability to make it in the ‘most difficult league in the world’. Whether you believe the tag line of Premier league praisers or not, it’s tough to argue that Guardiola lived up to expectations in his inaugural season at Manchester City. No trophies and a third place finish is far from normal for the former Bayern Munich man, but, as with anything in football, there’s a lot more at play.

One of the loudest and most consistent criticisms Guardiola faced in his first year at City was in relation to the defensive organization of the team. Match of the day pundits and nearly any former English professional with a thick enough accent lamented Pep’s willingness to position so many of his players so high up the pitch, deeming his style of play arrogant. Despite the in-depth analysis often finding the new manager as the root of their ‘poor form,’ much of the blame still fell to the actual defenders. So, when Manchester City’s first big signing of the summer was one of the best-attacking talents in Europe last season, it goes without saying that eyebrows were raised.

Not only did the early capture of Bernardo Silva raise questions of why, but also how. In a team brimming with attacking talent, Manchester City went out and bought yet another weapon for a team that seemed to be crying out for defensive reinforcements. A priority that seems so much more important considering City released all of their senior fullbacks just a few days after the season ended. So, to better answer these questions, a look back at Guardiola’s tactics may just illuminate how he intends to use his newest attacking talent.

(R)Evolution

At times it can be difficult to grasp the nuanced changes of football since in-depth tactical analysis is relatively new, but through the eyes of someone like Micheal Cox, Jonathan Wilson or even just by watching highlights of older games, one can see the difference in play.

Whereas, in football, before, vertical penetration was more easily achieved because of the lax nature in which teams lined up, opening spaces horizontally is now a necessary task for those seeking to break down defensive systems through possession. It is in response to the systems devised by the likes of Guardiola and other revolutionary managers of the early 2010’s and 2000's, that we see formations and systems take a step back and offer less space for attacking teams to exploit. Now, with the game having evolved to the extremes of tactical exploitation, the managers at the fore must also evolve. Greater risk in attacking actions is required from offensive systems when breaking down modern defenses, but the points of weakness, especially to Guardiola, remain the same.

As stated before, what made Messi under Guardiola so fantastic was the fact that the system allowed him to attack central defenders directly. Through the threat of someone like Dani Alves or Pedro on the right wing and Eric Abidal or David Villa on the left, Messi was able to link up and accept service from Xavi and Iniesta with ease. This homogeneity of threats in Pep’s attack minded team: the width of fullbacks and wingers, Messi’s penetrative ability to plug in and complete passing triangles, and Xavi, Iniesta and Busquets’ understanding in midfield all leaned upon one another to create the necessary space and time for each weapon in their arsenal. Some of the best football we’ve seen Messi play can be attributed to Guardiola’s style of play, and though we would’ve likely seen Messi have an amazing career without Guardiola, it was Pep’s ability to utilize the strengths of one extraordinary player in a revolutionary attacking system that made the success of the team, the manager, and the player possible.

Can he do it on a cold night in Stoke?

To suggest that Manchester City has lacked any sort of attacking options in the last few years, let alone last season, might have someone questioning whether you watch football at all, but if we really look at the problems that City faced last year, it might not be the craziest suggestion. Though the sky blues could often be found at the very top of any table that sought to rank teams by attacking metrics, one self-proclaimed criticism of Guardiola is that his team was simply not decisive enough ‘in the box.’

“In both boxes, we were not good enough. Simple as that. Here in England, the game changes so quickly, and everything happens in the boxes. We have to be better in the boxes.” Looking at the more advanced attacking metrics, that self-analysis by Pep is a little harsh. City were by far the best-attacking team in the Premier League and were more than unlucky on a few occasions, so why the demand for more?

xG Ranking table for the 16/17 Premier League season. (@ed_shorthouse)

The answer to that question lies in the way Guardiola has implemented his philosophy. Though the core concepts of his ideals remain the same, it’s an evolution of the way in which he applies those concepts that seem to change.

Pep has always been an attacking manager but the method as to how he attacks has varied from club to club. One might say his approach at Barcelona was a bit more balanced because he utilized his fullbacks as the width holders, while at Bayern Munich the tactics were a little more self-indulgent of the manager’s attacking tendencies and affinity for ball play. Since the Bavarian’s were averaging so much possession, Guardiola felt comfortable in positioning players further forward and taking more risks in offensive actions, utilizing his players in a 2–3–5 system that had palpable goal threats both wide and central. The formation was also aided by the quality of players like David Alaba, Phillip Lahm and Manuel Neuer who allowed him to dominate the ball like never before.

Timing

However, the timing always seemed off for Pep in Germany. Between the transition away from Franck Ribery, Arjen Robben and other key players that had helped the German giants win their first treble, to the significant injury suffered by the centerpiece of Guardiola’s midfield, Thiago Alcantara, Pep struggled to get all his ducks in a row until his final season in Bavaria. The attacking system he’d developed was extremely effective in achieving its goal of horizontal space creation, but many viewed it as idealistic because of how demanding it was of in regards to possession and unorthodox player usage; a sentiment that carried over to his struggles in the Premier League.

Though at first, he stressed the importance of ‘second ball pressing’ and some other tactical concepts that lent themselves to physical adaptation in the Premier League, it wasn’t until early mid season where we saw a striking resemblance to his older system. With the proper introduction of Leroy Sané as a consistent starter, and David Silva & Kevin De Bruyne as free eights, the on-ball attacking strategies started to look more familiar. City were, however, still underperforming against some of the bigger opponents. A midfield diamond was then shoehorned into the attack and it garnered some impressive performances including a 5–0 against West Ham that saw Sterling at the tip. What this specific experiment told us was that Guardiola was looking for more central penetration.

The term ‘central winger’ has been tossed around the ‘football hipster’ world for quite awhile now, and while some football terminology garners a cringe-worthy sense of over complication, the phrase does have genuine use. It’s used to describe players who look to create or take on defenders in central areas. Obviously, when applied directly, especially in a Pep system, the concept of a player making high risk actions in the center of the pitch doesn’t really make sense when you consider the risk a counter attack. But, used in a more pragmatic fashion, similar to how Guardiola used Messi on the right wing or at times Douglas Costa on either side at Bayern, it becomes a powerful weapon.

This ‘central winger’ is what Pep wanted at City but wasn’t able to attain through Sterling; the teams most natural dribbler. The other option would be Sané, but his dribbling technique seems to be in the same vein of his opposite winger. Both wide men use a combination of pace and close control to beat their defenders, attributes far too risky for central usage. Bernardo Silva, however, has the unique ability of close control and dribbling without the need for much space.

“Bernardo Silva? I call him bubble gum because the ball is glued to his foot. I could pay to watch him play,” said Benjamin Mendy, while fellow teammate Jemerson was also full of compliments regarding the miniature midfielder’s ability on the ball: “At training and during matches he does incredible things. You think he is about to lose the ball, but no, it is still there between his feet. You don’t even know how he did it. He is a magician although I call him the elf because of the weird shape of his ears,”.

Different skill sets

It is with a clear view of his performances from a tactical perspective and a juxtaposition of his statistics with other midfielders of a similar mold that one starts to scratch their heads upon hearing the suggestion that City’s new attacker will replace David Silva. With a relatively impressive 2.14 dribbles completed per game, often starting in a wider role cutting in from the right wing in Monaco’s 4–4–2, comparisons of B.Silva to D.Silva are misplaced and really only down to namesake. The Portuguese national is in the mold of another star in Guardiola’s past, and while no one in their right mind would ever suggest he could approach the level of performance consistently attained by one particular Argentinian, the role Silva will likely occupy seems to be of a similar ilk. Though Guardiola’s thoughts on the necessity and logistics of achieving central penetration have changed through his managerial evolution, it’s clear Bernardo Silva was brought in to fill this ever so important role.