After a week off, USA Rugby will take the field this Saturday in Texas to face Brazil. It’s a test that the Eagles should win. But the same could have been said of Canada, who lost to Brazil and their impressive scrum in the previous round of the Americas Rugby Championship. After being thrashed by Argentina XV two weeks ago, humility is in order. But a loss to Brazil this week, even with a more experimental matchday roster, would be a real warning bell.

Pride Cometh Before the Fall

Last match preview, I spent some time talking about how the Eagles would comfortably beat the Argentina XV, thereby demanding the Puma first side enter future ARCs. Well, I have no reason to believe that overconfidence struck the Eagles. But it certainly struck me.

It’s not time for excuses. After USA Rugby’s best year in history, I was caught up in the excitement. The truth is, we’re building something in this country and we’re building it fast. But neither Rome nor Tier 1 rugby sides are built in a day. It was bound to happen in fits and starts. That 2018 was such smooth sailing should really be the surprise, not the result in Argentina.

Instead, I am going to focus on the positive. If this dark Saturday in Argentina can serve as a wake-up call half a year out from a Rugby World Cup, so be it. Better to have a shocker in the ARC than the RWC.

Gold Digging

When you sign up to cover USA Rugby, you pledge to always mention that Gary Gold is a consistent selector. For the first time, Gold has given us significant lineup changes.

There are a few reasons for that. Primarily, as USA Rugby endeavors to build strong relationships with clubs, Gary Gold isn’t planning to strip his players from their domestic sides for the entirety of the ARC. We always knew, or at least suspected, that most of the European professionals would cross the ocean blue after the Argentina XV match. Don’t be surprised if more of the MLR players cycle back to their clubs as well in the coming weeks.

In addition, there isn’t much time left to experiment. Particularly coming after such a harsh defeat, Gold may feel an increased urgency to get a look at other assets. He’ll get that chance on Saturday, where his men will face a high-powered scrum on an overall limited team.

It isn’t all experimentation or second choices, however. Captain Blaine Scully returns to fitness and mans the wing. Mike Te’o also returns to the Eagles after a long absence. Their presence should serve as a boost.

Scrum Time

Those Brazilian boys can sure scrum. Besides dominating Canada in the scrum during their upset win, they’ve also gone as far as to throw back the Maori All Blacks during scrum time.

In a sense, it is a shame USA’s first choice front row won’t be there to learn from the experience. But Titi Lamositele heads back to Saracens and Joe Taufete’e is recovering from an injury. Dino Waldren, who had started both prior ARC matches, is named in reserve. It will be an entirely new front row for the Brazilians.

Chance Wenglewski, with only two caps, will start at loose-head. That is worth noting given that Toulouse-based phenom David Ainuu is on the bench. Likewise, James Hilterbrand gets his first start of the ARC at hooker. Paul Mullen, who for a time appeared to be the first choice tight-head, will get another shot in the #3 shirt.

How this side scrums against Brazil will be a key thing to follow as the match progresses and will no doubt help Gary Gold sort out his front row position battles, arguably the most uncertain spots on the team, prior to the World Cup.

Prediction

The Eagles should find it easier going at home. Brazil has some real upside but is not yet the Americans’ equal on the pitch. I suspect they may have the edge in the scrum, but doubt they’ll find success in much else.

After such a wildly overconfident prediction last time, I think some reservation is in order. But an Eagle loss would be a real cause for concern. I’m not quite that reserved.

USA by 13