GREAT YARMOUTH, England — Jeremy Corbyn is not yet on course to win the next general election.

In Thursday’s local elections in England, the opposition Labour Party lost ground to the Tories in a host of crucial battlegrounds for House of Commons seats that Corbyn will need to become prime minister.

Research by a leading campaigning expert, who did not want to be identified, into Labour's prospects at the next general election, seen by POLITICO, shows Labour needed to make gains in the north of England councils like Pudsey, Bolton and Great Grimsby, as well as Midlands towns like Walsall and Dudley, if it could claim to be on course for a general election win (see full list below). In the event, all gained extra Tory councillors.

The analysis concludes that the failure to make ground points to Labour not achieving the necessary constituency gains.

"It is about more than Brexit" — Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis

It wasn't all bad news for the party. Labour made gains in and around London and the southwest city of Plymouth, while Theresa May's Tories had a mixed night (though they will have feared much worse). But on the evidence of Thursday's poll, Labour will need to broaden its appeal to gain a majority in a general election — currently set for 2022.

On Friday, Labour figures were putting a brave face on the results. Corbyn admitted to being disappointed over the lost ground, but said in a statement the "solid set of results" left the party "well placed to fight and win the next general election."

Matthew Goodwin, an academic who has studied the realignment of British politics, pointed out that Labour was going to have to win around 65 more seats to get a majority in a general election. "Some of those potentially might come from areas like Scotland but some will have to come from areas outside of their heartland. They are going to have to try and make progress in some of these areas, otherwise the prospects of a majority will be slim at best," he said.

Brexitland

One place Labour might have hoped to do that was Great Yarmouth, a town on the east coast that voted strongly for Brexit in the referendum. Here though, many U.K. Independence Party voters returned to the Conservative Party rather than switching to Labour.

Labour lost control of Great Yarmouth in 2014 amid the UKIP surge — and has since struggled to claw back enough ground to claim the town hall. The Conservatives held on to the council in Thursday's election, increasing their tally of councillors by six with Labour gaining four.

Local MP and Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis, who won the parliamentary seat from Labour in 2010 and increased his majority at the last election, was brought in at May's last Cabinet reshuffle to rejuvenate the party machine after the disastrous 2017 general election.

The party chief said it was the Tory strength on issues like bin collections and car parking that contributed to what he described as a "good night" for the party — though he insists there is still "work to do."

He also insisted people on the doorstep had been very supportive of May on a range of issues.

"It is about more than Brexit," he said, citing Remain-backing Barnet in north London where the Tories seized control from Labour.

"We have just got to keep on doing the work so we can say to people, whether it is at local council or when we get to the next general election in four years' time, that there is a positive reason to vote Conservative," he added.

Kay Grey, who won a seat for UKIP in Great Yarmouth in 2014 and was the group's leader in the council, won again on Thursday after defecting to the Conservatives. She also thinks local issues were the focus in the election, but said the verdict on the doorstep was that May is doing a better job of navigating the Brexit talks than Corbyn would have done in the circumstances.

“I am not convinced some of [May's] decisions are the right ones … but people are quite pleased with her I think." Grey said she would favor Jacob Rees-Mogg as Tory leader, though doesn't want to see a leadership contest.

Neither of the recent headline scandals for the two main parties — the threatened deportation of the Windrush generation of migrants or the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party — had registered locally, she said.

Tories beware

For Tony Wright, who was the Labour MP in Great Yarmouth until 2010 and on Thursday won back one of the council seats taken by UKIP in 2014, there is a lot to play for.

He acknowledged his own leader is "a bit like Marmite ... You either love him or hate him." But Wright thinks his party's prospects in the seat at the next general election will hinge on what happens with Brexit.

"There are going to be huge changes in the next 12 months in Westminster in terms of Brexit and obviously some other major issues. By that time I am hoping everybody pulls together and we can be a fighting machine," he said.

"We are seeing quite a dramatic retreat by UKIP, but let’s not necessarily conclude that populism in the U.K. is dead" — Matthew Goodwin, academic and political analyst

Goodwin points to the "glaring disconnect" between the Brexit negotations and the debate the rest of the country are having.

"The average voter will probably think that Brexit has come and gone and 'where is my comprehensive immigration reform and where is my comprehensive exit from the EU?'" he said, adding that the referendum had not prompted any comprehensive national discussion about how to rejuvenate communities like Yarmouth which voted so strongly for Brexit.

"We have talked about what London wants [from Brexit], what financial services want, and as a consequence there will be lots of people in those areas that are asking this question of 'when are we going to rebalance the British economy?'"

"We are seeing quite a dramatic retreat by UKIP, but let’s not necessarily conclude that populism in the U.K. is dead," he added.

Conservative marginal seats in England — and what the local elections tell us about Labour's progress

Westminster constituency: Southampton, Itchen (Tory majority 31)

Local election result: Labour held Southampton, but made no gains.

Who’s happy? Nobody

Constituency: Pudsey (Tory majority 331)

Local election result: In Leeds, Labour were down two seats, Tories up three. In the Pudsey ward the Tories gained two seats from Labour.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: Calder Valley (Tory majority 609)

Local election result: Labour and the Liberal Democrats each gained a seat in Calderdale.

Who’s happy? Labour and the Lib Dems

Constituency: Bolton West (Tory majority 936)

Local election result: In Bolton, Labour kept control of the metropolitan borough council but lost four seats, the Tories gained three.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: Milton Keynes South (Tory majority 1,665)

Local election result: Milton Keynes council remains in no overall control, but the Conservatives gained two seats at the expense of Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: Milton Keynes North (Tory majority 1975)

Local election result: Milton Keynes council remains in no overall control, but the Conservatives gained two seats at the expense of Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: Harrow East (Tory majority 1757)

Harrow not yet declared.

Constituency: Watford (Tory majority 2092)

Local election result: The Liberal Democrats comfortably held Watford, making one gain. Labour also made a gain.

Who’s happy? Lib Dems

Constituency: Morley and Outwood (Tory majority 2,104)

Local election result: In Leeds, Labour lost two seats, Tories up three.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: South Swindon (Tory majority 2,464)

Local election result: The Tories hung on as the largest party, but lost one seat while Labour gained one.

Who’s happy? Both main parties

Constituency: Chingford and Woodford Green (Tory majority 2,438)

Local election result: In Waltham Forest, Labour gained two while the Tories lost two.

Who’s happy? Labour

Constituency: Walsall North (Tory majority 2601)

Local election result: In Walsall, the Tories gained five, Labour lost two.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: Cheadle (Tory majority 4507)

Manchester not yet declared.

Constituency: Shipley (Tory majority 4,681)

Local election result: In Bradford, Labour up three, the Tories up one.

Who’s happy? Labour

Constituency: East Worthing and Shoreham (Tory majority 5,106)

Local election result: In Tory-held Worthing the Tories lost two seats while Labour gained four.

Who’s happy? Labour

Labour-held seats with swings to the Tories at the 2017 general election

Constituency: Dudley North (Labour majority 22)

Local election result: Tories added seven seats — all from UKIP. Labour remained static.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: Penistone and Stocksbridge (Labour majority 1,322)

Barnsley council not yet declared.

Constituency: Great Grimsby (Labour majority 2565)

Local election result: In northeast Lincolnshire the Tories gained seven, Labour gained one.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: Rother Valley (Labour majority 3,882)

Local election result: On Sheffield City Council Labour lost four seats with the Lib Dems gaining three and Greens gaining two.

Who’s happy? Lib Dems and the Greens

Constituency: Bolton North East (Labour majority 3,797)

Local election result: In Bolton, Labour kept control of the metropolitan borough council but lost four seats, the Tories gained three.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: Dagenham and Rainham (Labour majority 4,652)

Local election result: In Barking and Dagenham Labour swept the board.

Who’s happy? Labour

Constituency: Don Valley (Labour majority 5,169)

Local election result: On Sheffield City Council, Labour lost four seats with the Lib Dems gaining three and Greens gaining two.

Who’s happy? Lib Dems

Constituency: West Bromwich West (Labour majority 4,460)

Local election result: In Sandwell, Labour up one, UKIP down one.

Who’s happy? Labour

Constituency: Heywood and Middleton (Labour majority 7,617)

Manchester council not yet declared.

Constituency: Burnley (Labour majority 6,353)

Local election result: Labour down two, Tories up one.

Who’s happy? Tories

Constituency: West Bromwich East (Labour majority 7,713)

Local election result: In Sandwell, Labour up one, UKIP down one.

Who’s happy? Labour

Constituency: Leigh (Labour majority 9,554)

Manchester council not yet declared.

Constituency: Sunderland Central (Labour majority 9,997)

Local election result: Labour down four, Tories up two, Lib Dems up three.

Who’s happy? Lib Dems and Tories

Constituency: Hemsworth (Labour majority 10,174)

Local election result: In Wakefield, the Tories gained four councillors, Labour lost one.

Who’s happy: Tories