Are people really fleeing the Bay Area in droves? Here's what new Census data says

People aren't just talking about leaving the Bay Area — they're actually doing it, according to new data released by the U.S. Census. People aren't just talking about leaving the Bay Area — they're actually doing it, according to new data released by the U.S. Census. Photo: Chris Dunn, Associated Press Photo: Chris Dunn, Associated Press Image 1 of / 33 Caption Close Are people really fleeing the Bay Area in droves? Here's what new Census data says 1 / 33 Back to Gallery

People aren't just talking about leaving the Bay Area — they're actually doing it, according to new data released by the U.S. Census. But the numbers aren't as simple as the previous statement suggests. People are leaving, but they're also moving in.

Let's complicate things: The overall population of San Francisco County increased by 78,121 people between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2018. Besides the annual thousands of deaths and births that occurred within that eight year span, the county had a total net migration of 52,066 people. (Net migration means the number of immigrants to a location minus the number of emigrants. A positive net migration signifies more people are moving there than leaving.)

Now let's throw a wrench into that: Though the population of San Francisco did indeed increase, the surge in residents is largely due to international migrants. The net international immigration for the county was 55,042 between 2010 and 2018.

The net domestic immigration number (-2,976) tell another story. The negative sign signifies that more American nationals left San Francisco County than moved there over the past eight years.

This trend followed in most Bay Area counties (Sonoma County being the exception, largely due to the 2018 wildfires that devastated much of the area). Santa Clara and San Mateo counties grew by 46,048 and 16,727 people respectively, but they had negative net migration totals for domestic residents, at -99,374 and -20,966.

The discrepancy between international and domestic migration in the Bay Area can likely be explained by what economists call "gateway cities." These cities, often planted along the coast, serve as entry points for foreigners moving to the U.S. The immigrants will register in the gateway city, but often move to other parts of California or the country within months, according to Phuong Nguyen, a research specialist at the California Department of Finance.

Speaking to SFGATE last year, Nguyen said she's noticed a surprising trend in migration for California: The populations of inland counties are growing faster than that of urban coastal counties.

"We were surprised at that," Nguyen said. California's coastal regions have historically drawn in-state migrants who leave their provincial hometowns in search of employment opportunity and urban environments.

It's a development that runs counter to the long-held narrative of small-town folks picking up and moving to their state's hubs of culture and commerce. Californians are still doing that, but they may not like what they're finding. Culture and commerce? Check. Affordable housing? Not so much.

Cities like Sacramento, however, have become increasingly attractive to Americans seeking a hot job market and an ample supply of housing. The new Census data confirms this: the population of Sacramento County grew by 122,240 between 2010 and 2018. The net migration total for those years was a whopping 90,712 people — 15,224 of whom were domestic migrants.

Read Michelle Robertson's latest stories and send her news tips at michelle.robertson@sfgate.com.

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