With polls showing the Greens ahead in both Melbourne and Richmond, the minor party holds high hopes of securing the balance of power

The heavy political artillery – John Howard, Julie Bishop, Bill Shorten – has been deployed to the marginal suburban electorates that are considered key to Saturday’s Victorian election. But the struggle for Melbourne’s inner-city seats is fierce and potentially decisive for the direction of the state.

While Labor has poured its stretched resources into battling a better-funded Coalition in a clutch of bayside seats that stretch down to Frankston, it has left itself exposed to a challenge from the Greens in its former inner-city heartland.

The seat of Melbourne is the prize the Greens are eyeing most optimistically, with Labor defending a margin of 4.7%. The seat is held at federal level by the Greens’ Adam Bandt, with former scientist and climate campaigner Ellen Sandell looking to replicate his success at state level.

Polling has shown the Greens ahead in both Melbourne and the neighbouring seat of Richmond, with Brunswick also potentially in play.

The minor party won’t have the benefit of Liberal preferences this time, meaning it is aiming directly at Labor’s primary vote, looking to hollow out the party’s electoral map by wooing progressive voters with promises to improve public transport and do more on climate change.

Labor has held a consistent Victoria-wide lead in the polls over the past year, but a tightening of the contest could deliver a hung parliament. That would give the Greens a chance to implement the progressive policies they claim Labor has abandoned.

Sandell says she would insist on two conditions before supporting Labor in a minority government – the scrapping of the controversial East West link toll road and the establishment of the Great Forest national park in the central highlands of Victoria.

Other things on the Greens’ wishlist include a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 and the phase-out of carbon-intensive brown coal. If the cards fall right for the Greens, many of their policies could be enacted.

“It will be close, I don’t think all of [Adam Bandt’s] votes will transfer automatically to me so we are working hard,” Sandell says. “But I think Labor is struggling to connect with people because their policies are moving to the right.

“Voters are pretty sick about the way Labor has taken them for granted in the inner city and now don’t stand for the things they used to stand for. We need someone who won’t just say the right thing but vote for it too.”

The Labor leader, Daniel Andrews, has explicitly ruled out any alliance with the Greens in a hung parliament and is known to take a dim view of the minor party. Sandell is unperturbed.

“Daniel Andrews will have two choices – he can choose the Greens for stable, progressive government or he can try to form government with Liberals and Nationals,” she says.

“We’d prefer a stable, progressive government. If he wants a rightwing government with the Liberals that’s up to him, but his voters wouldn’t be very happy with that.”

The state battle for Melbourne is following much the same strategy as the federal campaign – the Greens claim they are now the true representatives of progressives while Labor rubbishes the idea that a sole MP can have any true influence on any legislation.

“Labor has invested in taking on the Libs in the suburbs whereas here it’s more of a people-driven campaign – we have hundreds of volunteers knocking on doors here,” says Jennifer Kanis, who has been the Labor MP for Melbourne since a 2012 byelection.

“I am a progressive Labor candidate and we stand for good progressive policies. We are a party that delivers on change and a Labor member here will deliver far more for constituents than an inexperienced commentator from the sidelines.

“People want a government that can get things done. They don’t want someone who will just jump up and down and shout about things.”

The other federal influence on the race is Tony Abbott – a figure who looms large as a bogeyman for both Labor and the Greens, despite not featuring in this election as either a candidate or high-profile campaign ally for premier Denis Napthine.

“So many people talk about Abbott, even though they know it’s a state election,” Sandell says. “People are sick of Abbott’s cuts and want a strong state government to stand up to him. But they also realise that Labor votes with Abbott on a lot of things, like the anti-terror laws, so we need a Green in there to stand up to Abbott.

“I think the Victorian election will be a turning point away from the trend of really hard rightwing governments.”