Page updated on March 8 The power has shifted greatly at the top of the Alliance of American Football. While the Arizona Hotshots opened the season as the odds-on favorite to win the league’s first championship, they now look like the third-best option. Sitting in first are the undefeated Orlando Apollos, who continue to impress offensively under veteran head coach Steve Spurrier. Orlando moved to 4-0 in the AAF’s first season, as they dispatched a solid Stallions squad in week 4. Orlando has enforced their will in every contest so far, and while things can obviously change, they really do look like the team to beat in the AAF. They end the fourth week with 118 points scored, and nobody else has even topped 85. I don’t know if it’s that easy to process the separation of talent in this league, but if it is, that’s awfully scary for everyone else in the AAF. Here’s my AAF week 5 betting preview, starting with the latest odds to win the 2019 AAF title.

2019 AAF Title Odds

Betting on the Apollos to win the AAF championship is likely the right call now (I made them my pick last week), but bettors will always want to seek value and upside. I’m not sure you’re guaranteed to get either with Orlando, which offered a +175 price to win the title last week and should only see those AAF title odds dip further. That doesn’t mean you can’t lay money on the Apollos; it’s just that stretching your neck to see what other teams are worthy of your cash could also be viable. I’ve been on the Orlando Apollos the past two weeks, and their price has only dropped from +175 to +125. That won’t get me off of them, but if you’re looking for a little more betting value, check out the latest odds at Sportsbetting.ag: Orlando Apollos +125 Arizona Hotshots +325 Birmingham Iron +450 San Diego Fleet +700 San Antonio Commanders +800 Salt Lake City Stallions +1200 Atlanta Legends +5000 Memphis Express +5000 While the Apollos remain my favorite pick to win the AAF championship, their rise to the top does open up some value behind them. Of the other options, my favorite value pick is Arizona. They’ve been tripped up a bit lately, but they still have terrific coaching and some of the best offensive talent. Scoring a big win this week would get them to 3-2 and very much headed in the right direction. PICK Orlando Apollos +125

Week 4 Review

No matter what your AAF betting approach happens to be, it’s always helpful to reflect on what has transpired. Here’s a look back at how I picked last week’s AAF games and how things played out. San Diego Fleet (-6) +122

Orlando Apollos (-4) +105

Birmingham Iron (-7) -110

Atlanta Legends (+13.5) -105 After going 1-3 in each of my first two go-arounds with AAF picks (2-6 on the year), I finally at least broke even with a 2-2 mark in week 4. That isn’t amazing, but it sure beats losing. The weird part is the Iron lost their first game of the season, and a normally elite Fleet defense got worked by a winless Express team. Those spreads weren’t egregious, but neither team failed you ATS. They just couldn’t find a way to win in general. Atlanta’s spread was always disgusting, but they were also able to get their first win of the year. I didn’t aim high with them as a straight-up bet, but it’s still nice to be on the right side of that one. I’ll take a 2-2 mark and also tip my cap to some of the struggling AAF squads. There are no longer any winless teams in this league, so be sure to keep that in mind as you continue to place bets on the Alliance of American Football.

Betting on Week 5 AAF Games

Using what we just saw in week 4 and what’s happened during the 2019 AAF season as a whole, let’s jump right into a brand-new week of AAF picks. Week 5 AAF odds are sure to emerge slowly, as you weren’t even able to bet on AAF games until late into last week. Regardless, I’ll hop on these matchups early and let you know where my head is at. I’ll be updating this post with the odds and lines just as soon as they’re out.

Orlando Apollos @ Birmingham Iron

I won’t call for the upset here, but I have to think the Iron will be decently sized underdogs against the undefeated Apollos. Orlando has arguably the best offense in the league and has yet to lose, but they have to face a solid one-loss Birmingham team on the road. It’s worth arguing that Orlando’s first defeat has to come sometime, and if it’s coming anytime soon, a road date against the Iron would make sense. The Iron don’t have a very explosive offense, but they’re effective at punching the ball in and have also been strong defensively. Birmingham’s lone loss on the year still saw them giving up just 12 points in week 4. Provided the spread isn’t absurdly tight, I’ll ride the value with the Iron on their home field. PICK Birmingham Iron (+5) -105

Salt Lake City Stallions @ San Diego Fleet

The Stallions fell to 1-3 with another loss last week, and they’ll head to San Diego trying to fix what ails them. That could prove to be easier said than done, as San Diego’s defense has been very stingy, and the Fleet are 2-0 on their home field so far in 2019. Salt Lake City’s offense has been pretty hit or miss, with most of their success coming in two showdowns with the Arizona Hotshots. A trip against a tougher defense on the road looks like a problem for them, so in a likely low-scoring battle, I’ll favor the Fleet at home. PICK San Diego Fleet (+5) -115

Memphis Express @ Atlanta Legends

The Express have to be riding high with confidence after scoring a surprise win over the Fleet this past week. I think bettors should keep in mind that they had nowhere to go but up after benching Christian Hackenberg, however, while they were at home and barely won by three points. A win is a win, but confiding in Memphis to land a second consecutive straight-up win feels like a reach. The Legends also got their first win last week, so something clearly does need to break. I just have more faith in Aaron Murray and the Legends offense right now, while they feel a bit safer at home as well. This should be another tight game, so I could be swayed depending on how the spread looks later in the week. PICK Atlanta Legends (-1.5) -110

San Antonio Commanders @ Arizona Hotshots

Lastly, we have a pretty intense showdown between the Commanders and Hotshots. These were two of the best teams on paper before the season started, yet they’re both just 2-2. These teams are primed to head in opposite directions in week 5, but logic rests with Arizona at home. My week 5 AAF picks to this point have favored the home team, but the gap between some of these teams has been razor-thin. Arizona does appear to be the more complete team, while I tend to trust a healthy John Wolford over Logan Woodside. This one actually could have the makings of a bit of a shootout, but whatever happens, I feel like Arizona will take better care of the football and put more points up in front of the home crowd. PICK Arizona Hotshots (-2.5) -110

Summary