



Both Syria and Iraq require a despot to keep together the various tribes and sects as a nation state. Now that Saddam Hussein is gone in Iraq and Bashar al-Assad is too weak in Syria the thought of letting each country balkanize into politically functional regions is one that the State Department stays blind to for status quo reasons. Kerry's and the State Departments' problem is denial of reality and when the status quo is not sustainable they bring in the Pentagon which doesn't change the reality and leaves State to ride out the consequences. For example when Mosul is reconquered by military forces comprised of the Iraqi army, Shiite Militias, Iranian Republican Guards and U.S. Forces what political unity will be left there to fester so that ISIS metastasizes into something else? What is State doing to prevent another "allies win the battle and lose the war"? It won't be until State realizes that former Prime Minister al-Maliki irretrievably broke Iraq apart that any progress can be made to pacify the region. In Syria trying to get Bashar al-Assad to step down is a fool's errand. He has the full support of his Allawite tribe. He steps down and the tribe is lost and so is the only Russian naval base on the Mediterranean. To think that Russia will back down from support of their key ally holding onto that base boggles the mind. Let Syria balkanize and Russia would not have interest in expanding al-Assad's power in regions he can't control. Actually Russia is already decided to make nice with Turkey and help them control the Sunni Arab regions of Syria though its not clear foggy bottom sees it.