Liberals Continue to Ride High While NDP Move Up; CPC Moribund at Sub-25

MODERN LOWS FOR NATIONAL DIRECTIONAL APPROVAL AS CITIZENS SEEK A “BOLD NEW VISION”

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 1, 2014] In a major new survey of public attitudes and values, we find a pretty stable political landscape which is increasingly unreceptive to another Stephen Harper government. Not only would the government be in no position to aspire to repeat its 2011 success, it may not even achieve leader of the opposition with these numbers. While we find this scenario unlikely, the continued flagging of Conservative Party fortunes now renders this a real possibility. Indeed, Stephen Harper’s regal air coach may be about to turn into a pumpkin. Probing the underlying anatomy of support and related diagnostic measures suggest that things are indeed very grim for the current government’s future prospects.

Pondering the time series above, a few points are obvious. Most notably, the Liberal ascension under Justin Trudeau is no mere blip; it is a long, slow march. Secondly, the Conservative decline is no ephemeral blip caused by some controversy or wobble. It is a steady and grim decline along a straight line of descent. If this were an ECG, the prognosis would be pretty bleak.

Turning to an important leading indicator – the question of whether we are moving in the right or wrong direction as a country – we see a modern record with 55 per cent saying wrong direction (roughly 62 per cent if we discount those with no opinion). In historical context, this indicator registered above the low 30s. Put another way, outside of the dwindling cadre of Conservative supporters, those who approve of national direction registers in the teens. The corresponding number for approval of federal direction is even lower.

The problems of the Conservative Party are vividly arrayed when we look at the regional and demographic patterns. Outside of their fortress of Alberta, the Conservatives do not hold a significant lead in a single region or demographic category. Even their stranglehold on Alberta is dramatically relaxed and they have relinquished their longstanding ownership of the senior cohort. The Liberals, meanwhile, have strong leads in the Atlantic and Ontario and are competitive throughout the country. The NDP continue to lead in Quebec (albeit insignificantly) and have a new lead in British Columbia (which will bear watching to see if it holds).

Things look even worse for the Conservatives when we turn to country of birth. The supposed “big shift” of new Canadians into the ranks of the Conservative Party has utterly collapsed. The Liberals now lead the Conservatives among this group by a margin of 47 to 21. Without some sort of fairly quick and profound turnaround, the chances of a fourth Harper government are looking increasingly remote.

Canadians at odds with government over preferred vision

In this latest poll, we also updated our tracking on government vision, where we ask Canadians whether they would prefer a bold new government vision or a “steady-as-she-goes” approach. Canadians have traditionally been split on this issue, although it appears that the lean towards a bold new vision is somewhat stronger.

While the public aren’t always certain which direction they would prefer, the Conservatives aren’t really seen as providing any vision at all. Over the last 16 years, the proportion of Canadians who are unable or unwilling to categorize the government’s vision has jumped from eight per cent to more than 40 per cent. Moreover, the Conservatives are increasingly not seen as even providing the more custodial steady-as-she-goes government that the voters saw in the past.

Methodology

This study was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. We believe this to be the only probability-based online panel in Canada.

The field dates for this survey are September 21-25, 2014. In total, 1,549 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. Of these cases, 1,401 were collected online, while 148 were collected by computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here for the full report: Full Report (October 1, 2014)

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