By Jeff Dieringer:

Entering the 2018 season, Shane Bieber clocked in at #11 on the Indians top prospect list, according to MLB.com. In the shadow of Indians top pitching, and prospect overall, Triston McKenzie, Bieber started earning high praise early from people within organization, including Francona,

“Chris [Antonetti] was afraid to bring him over in Spring Training because he knew we were going to want to latch on to him," the Tribe skipper told media regarding the rookie right-hander, "By all accounts he is in the mold of Kluber. By routines and work ethic and poise."

That’s some serious high praise from Francona, any comparison to a two-time Cy Young award winner is positive. Though his stuff and pitching style varies from Kluber, Bieber excelled in the early part of the minor league season, making a combined ten MiLB starts between Double A Akron and Triple A Columbus, where he posted a 5-1 W-L record, a 1.10 ERA with a 63:3 K/BB ratio. In his last MiLB start before his call up, he threw a rain-shortened 7-inning no hitter.

Positive Projections

The strengths that Bieber possess was on display in those ten starts, pitch location and movement, which led to his minor league career 260:19 K/BB ratio. With Josh Tomlin’s struggles and eventually injury, Bieber made his debut on May 31st against Minnesota, a team he would face two more times before season's end. In his 19 major league starts, he would post a 11-5 W-L record, 4.55 ERA, 118 strikeouts, 23 walks, 3.23 FIP, and 2.8 fWAR; compared to a 1.0 bWAR. This variance in WAR is explained by the difference in calculation for WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball.Reference, fWAR uses FIP, which focuses on strikeouts, walks, home runs, etc. while bWAR focuses on more of the defensive factor. Essentially, Bieber’s fWAR is higher because of his excellent K/9, HR/9, and BB/9, despite the 4.55 ERA.

Overall, I think it’s safe to say that Bieber had a successful rookie year, especially considering he was the Indians fifth starter, there are some rotations in baseball where Bieber would be an easy third or fourth. Through these starts, Bieber’s approach didn’t change, he relied on his pinpoint pitch location, as well as his pitch movements, to entice hitters to swing out of the zone, what he has essentially done his whole career.

I could try and project or guess what type of performance Bieber will have next year, but thanks to Dan Szymbroski at Fangraphs, ZiPS projections does that for us. According to ZiPS, Bieber is projected for 187 IP, 3.71 ERA, 156 SO, 118 ERA+, and a 3.8 fWAR, What immediately jumps out is the fWAR projection and how ZiPS really likes Bieber. This is actually higher than Clevinger (3.2) and right behind Bauer (4.3) and Carrasco (4.3). Comparing to last years’ fWAR leaders, this was on par with pitches such as former Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, Rockies’ ace Kyle Freeland, and Diamondback’s ace Zack Grienke. Now these projections aren’t God-given prophesy, but there are some important things to keep in mind about Bieber moving forward and what to expect.

Trouble with the Order

Like many starting pitchers, the more times a pitcher goes through the order, the worse their numbers get. This fact is what makes pitchers like Kluber, Verlander, and Scherzer so incredible, where they seem to almost get better as the game moves on. Bieber can certainly attest to those third time through the order struggles, where he allowed his highest wOBA, ERA, BAA and home runs.

Again, Bieber isn’t the only pitcher in the majors who struggles to get guys out as the game goes on, but there were many of Bieber’s starts where he would implode in the fifth or sixth inning. In innings 1-4, he only allowed a .286 wOBA with 81 SO in 75.2 IP. From the fifth inning on, his wOBA shoots up to .411, with 31 ER in 39 IP. Moving forward, Bieber’s ability to get guys out consistently in that third time through the order and later in the game is going to be critical for his success.

Change-up Development

Bieber will never light up the radar, where his average fastball velocity is 93.0 MPH, hovering right around league average. What makes him so successful is his movement on pitches, especially the slider and curveball. His second and third most popular pitches last season, he allowed just a .254 and .232 BAA respectively.

His fastball was hit around a bit, a .310 BAA with an average exit velocity of 89.9 and a .374 wOBA. Some of this was a bit of luck, and with the lack of velocity a mistake can lead to some higher numbers, but it’s also his lack of success with the change-up. Only throwing it 3.7% last season, Bieber’s change struggled, a .342 wOBA with an exit velocity of 93.4 and a .357 BAA.

I believe a good change-up could help his fastball immensely and his overall success, as the change-up is similar in horizontal movement and coming out of the same arm slot as the fastball. Working on developing a changeup this off-season could help Bieber become more effective with his fastball, and pitches overall. I’m serious, he should send a text over to fellow pitcher Trevor Bauer and Driveline Baseball to help scientifically work and improve his change-up.

Conclusion

I think there’s a reason why ZiPS has such a positive outlook for Bieber in 2019, his ability to strikeout batters and prevent the longball, in a league that is trending towards strikeouts and homeruns, will lead him to potentially thrive. There is some clear room for improvement, but he’s only 23, and I think moving forward there’s only upward movement on the horizon. I don’t think he’ll ever become the ace, but he’s going to be a critical part of the Indians rotation moving forward.