Moreover, of the Democratic seats in play, it’s fair to conclude that Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana (+3.8 points in the RealClearPolitics averages) is in the strongest spot. Sen. Bill Nelson (Fla.), thought to be the weakest campaigner, caught a big break when Andrew Gillum, the African American mayor of Tallahassee, won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination while Republicans went with far-right gadfly Rep. Ron DeSantis. The GOP, meanwhile, is consistently behind in polling in Arizona.

AD

AD

Republicans also have a new problem: Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh. President Trump on Friday reminded women voters why they are so enraged with Republicans when he demanded to know why Christine Blasey Ford did not file a police report when she was attacked as a teenager. The answer is that she was about 15 years old at the time and was too afraid or filled with shame to report it.

Trump goes so far as to declare that Kavanaugh is the one “under assault.” Ever one to defend accused sexual predators (e.g., former White House aide Rob Porter, failed Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore, even himself), Trump only adds fuel to the fire in the already inflamed debate over the Supreme Court nominee.

Ads such as this one are running in West Virginia, Nevada and Arizona:

This ad is making the rounds as well:

It’s far from clear that these ads would convince undecided voters about which side is telling the truth. (Ford will have to do that herself.) However, ads such as these could very well amp up Democratic enthusiasm.

AD

AD

Each time Republicans engage in foolish conspiracy theories in defense of Kavanaugh or belittle Ford, one can imagine thousands of women rolling their eyes in disgust (or yelling at their TVs), vowing to head for the polls in November to vote out Republicans. It doesn’t help Kavanaugh or Republicans when male colleagues say he’s such a swell guy who couldn’t possibly have done this. (Rob Porter was also called a terrific guy by male peers.)