“The world oil demand is expected to increase by 14.5 million barrels a day, from 97.2 mbd in 2017 to 111.7 mbd in 2040. India will account for a growth of 5.8 mbd, which represents an astonishing 40 percent of the overall increase,” Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, secretary general, Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said at the India Energy Forum in New Delhi today. Citing the World Oil Outlook, he said India is projected to see the largest additional oil demand, growing at the fastest pace of 3.7 percent a year, by 2040.

That comes when Asia’s third-largest economy is pushing the use of natural gas and wind and solar farms to lower imports of crude, the largest contributor to the nation’s trade deficit, besides meeting emission targets under the Paris agreement. Still, that is unlikely to be enough to meet its growing energy demand.

OPEC forecasts that the primary energy demand globally is expected to increase 33 percent, or 91 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, between 2015 and 2040. About 24 percent of this anticipated increase will be from India, said Barkindo.

“This impressive growth reflects the remarkable transformation of the Indian economy during the forecast period,” he said. “We estimate that India will grow at an average annual rate of 6.5 percent for the period 2017-2040. Real GDP is expected to surpass OECD Europe by 2035, and OECD America by 2040.”

To meet the future needs of both India and the world by 2040, he said the oil sector would require estimated investments worth $11 trillion.

Citing the last downturn for the industry from 2014 to 2016 when oil supply outpaced demand, Barkindo said a long-absent element of stability has been reintroduced. “The rate of inventory drawdowns has been reversed and industry optimism and confidence abound.”