Relief for GOP in conservative district as pollster says: ‘Republicans should not be hitting the panic button – they should be slamming it’

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

Republicans managed to hold on to a deeply conservative Arizona congressional seat on Tuesday night in a special election race that was far closer than expected.

The Associated Press called the race for Republican Debbie Lesko shortly after 8pm local time, when the results from the first batch of early votes showed that she had an insurmountable lead over her Democratic opponent, Hiral Tiperneni.

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Lesko, a former state senator, led Tiperneni, a doctor and political newcomer, by a margin of 52.6% to 47.4% in the race for a Phoenix-area seat that Donald Trump had won by over 20 points. The narrow margin is unlikely to calm Republican nerves before the midterm election cycle when the president’s party historically loses seats in Congress.

Mike Noble, a Republican pollster in Arizona, said a race in a solidly conservative district, with older voters who are less likely to cross party lines, should not have been anywhere close to as tight as it was.

“Republicans should not be hitting the panic button. They should be slamming it,” he said.

A Democrat in the state called it the “perfect scenario” for the party. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said the result should “terrify” vulnerable Republicans running for re-election.

“These narrow results in Arizona’s eighth district spell serious trouble for the Republican majority, particularly because it proves there is no place in the country where energized, organized Democrats are not ready to compete,” a DCCC spokesperson, Jacob Peters, said in a statement.

That concern was nowhere to be found at Lesko’s victory party in Glendale on Tuesday night. Cheers rang out as she clinked champagne glasses with the former Arizona hardline Republican governor Jan Brewer.

“Here’s to success! Here’s to Republicans winning this year!” she said.

Tiperneni, meanwhile, waited until most of the ballots were counted on Wednesday morning before conceding the race.

“Now that nearly all of the votes have been counted, we know that the special election goes to our opponent,” Tiperneni said. “I congratulate Debbie Lesko on a hard-fought campaign, and wish her good luck in Congress.”

The seat came open in December when conservative lawmaker Trent Franks resigned over reports he offered to pay a female staffer $5m in exchange for carrying his child. Lesko will serve the remainder of his two-year term and seek re-election this fall.

The race was being watched as a potential test of Trump’s popularity after surprising Democratic special election victories in Republican strongholds like Pennsylvania and Alabama. And the strong performance by the Democrat in a district where the party did not even field a challenger in the last two elections marked yet another troubling sign for the Republican party ahead of the 2018 midterm elections.



On Wednesday morning, Trump congratulated Lesko on her victory and chided the press for its coverage of the race.

“Congratulations to Republican Debbie Lesko on her big win in the Special Election for Arizona House seat. Debbie will do a Great Job! Press is so silent,” he said on Twitter.

The district, located in the western suburbs of Phoenix, is known for its Sun City retirement community and for permitting golf carts to drive on the streets. The constituency is home to a sizable senior population that helped keep the hardline former sheriff Joe Arpaio in office for more than two decades.



National GOP groups collectively spent nearly $1m to defend the reliably conservative seat. National Democrats, notably, stayed out of the race.





After a loss in Arizona’s eight congressional district, Democrats still must win 23 seats to take back the House of Representatives.

Tiperneni, who was part of the wave of Democratic women inspired to run for office since Trump was elected, entered the race to challenge Franks. After he resigned, Democrats rallied around her campaign.

She intends to challenge Lesko again for the seat in November.