Bloomberg aides say the former New York mayor likes and respects Warren personally, and is not bothered by the effect of her wealth tax proposals on his own fortune. The problem, they believe, is that she made a critical strategic error by deciding no rival would get to her left, and in the course embraced a “Medicare for All” plan in which private insurance would be banned. The plan is losing popularity among Democrats, and many party officials share Bloomberg’s belief that the plan could be her undoing in a general election.

“We did a poll, it was the exact same poll that The New York Times did — it overlapped by a few days — and it had Elizabeth Warren losing not one swing state but six swing states,” one of Bloomberg’s advisers said, listing the states as Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. "If the election was held today, with her [running] against Trump, he wins all six" states, the person added.

Bloomberg aides say they are helped by Democratic voters’ eagerness to put head before heart in 2020. His recent polling has shown that 85 percent of Democrats rank perceived ability to beat Trump as a top concern, a number that has spiked 40 points or so since the impeachment drama got underway in September

These aides don’t disguise their hope that Warren will do well enough to serve as a foil but not so well that she is the prohibitive favorite by March 3. They want Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders to each keep enough support that the battle for the Democratic left remains a stalemate.

Yes, but: There are a lot of questionable assertions in the Bloomberg team’s appraisal of the race. Is it really so clear that Biden is spiraling downward? A new national Quinnipiac poll showed he just retook the lead while Warren lost half her support, dropping to third place. Journalists have been quoting Democratic chattering-class types for months about his alleged defects, but he continues to perform well in national polls and his support among African Americans especially has proven durable. The primary is littered with candidates mired in single digits in the polls because they anticipated a Biden collapse that never came.

What’s more, primary candidates often look weak as general election contenders at this stage in the calendar. Historically, early victories have transformed how they are perceived by the electorate. The assertion that 2020 will be different is a wish by Bloomberg’s team but so far it is only that. In addition, women voters especially will remember that “too liberal, hurting our chances of victory” was also the rap against Nancy Pelosi, who led Democrats to take back the House in 2018.

Assumption: Bloomberg has a wide-open country to portray himself as a winner

While the alleged losers are strapped down doing their thing in Iowa (Feb. 3), New Hampshire (Feb. 11), Nevada (Feb. 22) and South Carolina (Feb. 29), the man who ducked those contests is ready to spend hundreds of millions on ads and campaign turnout apparatus in Super Tuesday’s 15 states, plus more than a dozen other states and territories later in March.

It can’t be emphasized enough how unusual this strategy is. Successful nominating strategies have always started with early small-state victories, and then gone national. If one was going to try a different national-first strategy, it would help to have a self-funded campaign backed by a fortune (estimated $54 billion) that is several dozen times larger than Trump’s.

Yes, but: There may be good reason, beyond just limited financial resources, this has never been tried before. It is unproven whether a candidate can simply buy credibility with national voters through advertising if he has skipped the first states. It also might overestimate the effect of paid media and undervalue the impact of earned media from early-state victories. If Bloomberg has got thick enough skin to withstand the caustic dismissals of other candidates, and media mockery that will come if the strategy doesn’t work, he has nothing to lose in the experiment except a small fraction of his fortune.

The assumption: Biography can beat ideology

Bloomberg is not going to run principally as “a centrist” who thinks Warren and Sanders are “too liberal,” even though both things happen to be true. A message of someone who likes his porridge neither too hot nor too cold has already flopped for several candidates (Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper) and hardly fits with the disruptive mood driving politics in both parties.

At least initially, advisers say, Bloomberg hopes he doesn’t even have to launch direct criticism of Warren or other candidates.

Instead, he’s counting on two things. The first is that his life story as someone who started “as a middle-class kid” — as his first, newly released ad puts it — and then built the Bloomberg media empire before becoming mayor of New York shortly after 9/11, is compelling to a national audience that otherwise would not much identify with a rich New Yorker.

“We have a really compelling candidate with a really compelling message and life story and a lot of resources to share that message with a lot of people," said adviser Howard Wolfson, "and that’s not about running against any other one person.”