You didn’t think we’d skip out on this did you?

Starting this Friday is the Las Vegas open, the largest event of the 40K year and (in this instance) likely to be the largest 40K event ever run. I’m writing this from my hotel room in Vegas, my army has made it to the US in one piece (overcoming a common hazard to Goonhammer authors) and I am incredibly excited.

Over the next few days the resort is going to fill up with 40K players from around the globe, all bringing their A-game to try and take down the event, or secure their spot at the top of their Best in Faction standings (as the LVO is the final ITC scored event of the season). Pretty much every faction is represented (even pure Ynnari) and James “Boon” Kelling is joining me for this preview to dive deeper into the numbers. You can also take a look at our analysis of some recently successful armies in the January State of the Meta that Rob, Kevin, and Boon put together, with comments from Shane Watts, Corrode, and yours truly.

However, the metagame is a slipperly, fast-moving thing, lots of new rules have come available recently, and late December/January tend to be pretty quiet tournament wise, so many players haven’t yet brought out their latest toys.

In order to make then mammoth task of filtering down the gigantic number of lists that are in BCP more feasible, I’ve decided to put my focus specifically on new toys. The three armies that have gained the most stuff that is both legal for LVO and hasn’t really been seen in big numbers in the wild are:

Going through the lists, I’m pleased to say that even examining a few of them from each faction shows some definite trends within each, so hopefully looking at them will help prepare readers for if they come up against these unfamiliar forces.

Normally we’d talk about our own lists at this point, but both Boon and I have talked about what we’re packing already in the Road to LVO series (my final update here, Boon’s here). As for the format of the tournament – it’s the premier ITC event of the year, so naturally it’s pure ITC, with the only new thing being fixed terrain layouts for the top tables (which I covered in my last update). We’ll have a quick resource roundup post for the ITC on Thursday.

With all of that out of the way, time to look at the field – take it away Boon!

Las Vegas Open – Field Analysis

With hundreds of lists already submitted for LVO 2020, we can add to our existing field research by looking specifically at the upcoming event. Note that all of this list data is based on BCP registrants as of January 20th, 2020. A total of 921 registrants submitted 789 lists (leaving 132 potential drops). For the remainder of this analysis we will assume that the field is comprised only of those 789 submissions. This is up from the 661 registered lists in 2019. Below we see the total breakouts at the highest keyword level.

I don’t think it’s any surprise that the Imperium dominates the field. A total of 19 factions representing 17 mono-factions and 2 soup (Imperium, Adeptus Astartes) comprise over 50% or 421 list submissions. Overall the faction breakouts are as follows:

Imperium – 421 Lists (53.4%)

Chaos – 141 Lists (17.9%)

Aeldari – 102 Lists (12.9%)

Orks – 32 (4.1%)

Tau – 37 Lists (4.7%)

Necrons – 33 Lists (2.8%)

Forces of the Hive Mind – 34 Lists (4.3%)

Below we drill down another level and classify the groupings:

Breaking out these categories, we have the following :

Imperium – 67 Lists (8.5%)

New Supplement Marines – 231 Lists (29.3%) Adeptus Astartes – 81 (10.3%) Iron Hands – 62 (7.9%) Imperial Fists – 23 (2.9%) Blood Angels – 22 (2.8%) Ultramarines – 19 (2.4%) Raven Guard – 11 (1.4%) White Scars – 7 (0.9%) Salamanders – 4 (0.5%) Black Templars – 2 (0.3%)

– 231 Lists (29.3%)

Old Marines – 27 Lists (3.4%) Space Wolves – 9 (1.1%) Grey Knights – 9 (1.1%) Dark Angels – 5 (0.6%) Deathwatch – 4 (0.6%)

– 27 Lists (3.4%)

Other Imperium – 96 (12.2%) Adeptus Mechanicus – 25 (3.2%) Sisters of Battle – 21 (2.7%) Imperial Guard – 20 (2.5%) Adeptus Custodes – 18 (2.3%) Imperial Knights – 12 (1.5%) Imperial Agents – 1 (0.1%) (yes one brave soul is actually doing this)

– 96 (12.2%)

It goes without saying that the new Marines are the flavor of the… past 4 months (and also the next 4-12 months). However, it is remarkable seeing just how much of an impact they have to the meta. At this point last year Space Marines of any flavor (including Adeptus Astartes) comprised approximately 13.5% of all mono-faction lists. That number has skyrocketed to almost a third of the field at 32.7% this year. Last year you needed to be prepared to deal with Castellans… this year it’s all about the many various forms of Primaris. Interestingly Imperial Fists as a stand-alone faction are not as popular as I would have assumed – I speak to my thoughts on this a bit in the meta update article published yesterday.

Moving on to Chaos we see:

Chaos – 65 Lists (8.2%)

Chaos Space Marines – 50 Lists (6.3%) Codex: Chaos Space Marines – 34 (4.3%) Thousand Sons – 4 (0.5%) Death Guard – 12 (1.5%)

– 50 Lists (6.3%)

Daemons – 13 Lists (1.7%)

Renegade Knights – 13 (1.7%)

I’m not sure there are any real surprises here either – Chaos is a faction that appears to perform best in a soup setting and the breakouts represent this with a strong plurality as soup. Last year Thousand Sons had a strong showing at 3.3% of mono-lists, so this years 0.5% represents a significant drop-off. Unsurprising given the meta results of the past few months and the major nerfs in Chapter Approved to Tzaangors and Winged Daemon Princes. Chaos Space Marines generally have gotten a boost from Faith and Fury and Chapter Approved, and as a result they are actually up 1.4% over last year’s 2.9% of the field.

Moving onto our final ‘mega’ faction, we have the Aeldari at 12.9% of the field:

Aeldari – 46 Lists (8.2%)

Asuryani – 33 Lists (4.2%)

Drukhari – 18 Lists (2.3%)

Harlequins – 4 (0.5%)

Ynnari – 1 (0.1%)

The only real surprise here is the lowered number of pure Drukhari lists. The Marine meta and the subsequent underwhelming impact of PA:PR likely leads to the fall of a faction that just one year ago comprised 7.1% of the field. Also congratulations to William Hamor on your Best in Faction (Ynnari) for this tournament. You are a brave man taking Ynnari with the full Triumvirate. Goonspeed sir, and may god have mercy on your immortal soul.

The only other interesting note is that the Forces of the Hive mind comprise a total 34 lists, but only 5 represent pure Genestealer Cults. Despite the recent release, Tyranids only see play in 22 lists in this years LVO, and at 2.8% they represent approximately half of last year’s total. You’re about as likely to face off in the first-round against a player named Matt/Matthew than you are to face Tyranids.

List Reviews

So that’s the field. Yesterday we talked about some of the popular lists for each major faction, and today Wings is going to talk about some lists to watch out for at LVO. Note that we are well aware that the most likely outcome is that, with marines making up one third of the field, including many of the most skilled players at the event, the winner is likely to be a marines army. But marine lists are rather boring to talk about five months in, so we’ve chosen three other factions to look at.

Darren Thibault’s Sisters of Battle

The List