A Male Surplus: Men outnumber women across Europe Feminists and demographics experts are debating how the males overtaking females in population size will affect all our lives. By Karl […]

Feminists and demographics experts are debating how the males overtaking females in population size will affect all our lives. By Karl Ritter

Swedes do not quite know what to make of their sudden surplus of males. For the first time since records began back in 1749, the country now has more men than women.

This is highly unusual in the West, where women historically have been in the majority in almost every country. But it may be a sign of things to come in Europe, as changes in life expectancy and migration transform demographics.

The tipping point in Sweden happened in March last year, when population statistics showed 277 more men than women. The gap has since grown to beyond 12,000.

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While that’s still small in a population of almost 10 million, it’s “not unreasonable” to suspect that Sweden will have a big male surplus in the future, said Tomas Johansson, a population expert at the national statistics agency, SCB.

Despite a natural birth rate of about 105 boys born for every 100 girls, European women have historically outnumbered men because they live longer. But the number of men per 100 women, known as the sex ratio, is increasing.

Norway swung to a male surplus in 2011, while Denmark and Switzerland are nearing a sex ratio of 100, and Germany, which had an unnatural deficit of men after two world wars, has seen its sex ratio jump from 87 in 1960 to 96 last year. Britain’s sex ratio rose from 93 to 97 in the same period. UK statistics officials project that men will be in the majority by 2050.

What difference could this make?

Researchers don’t have a clear idea of what happens to a society when the population becomes more masculine. Tomas Sobotka, of the Vienna Institute of Demography, said in theory a male surplus could increase the bargaining power of women when picking a partner by allowing them to be choosier. But they could also face an increased risk of harassment from frustrated males struggling to find a mate.

Sweden’s rapid shift to a male majority has triggered debate among some feminists about the potential impact in one of the world’s most egalitarian countries.

Statistics officials say Sweden’s demographic shift is mainly due to men catching up with women in terms of life expectancy. But the arrival in recent years of tens of thousands of unaccompanied teenage boys from Afghanistan, Syria and North Africa is also having a significant impact.

Sweden’s biggest male surplus is in the 15 to 19 age group, where there are 108 boys for every 100 girls. That imbalance could grow to 115 for every 100 this year when the impact of last year’s record number of asylum-seekers – including more than 35,000 unaccompanied minors – is reflected in the statistics.

Valerie Hudson, of Texas A&M University, said this should make Swedes concerned, as her research has linked skewed sex ratios in China and India to more violence against women and higher crime levels.

What’s happening in Sweden, Ms Hudson said, “is one of the most dramatic alterations of demography over such a short period of time that I’ve ever seen.” She said it was ironic that a country considered a beacon of women’s rights isn’t paying more attention to the issue.

“People aren’t thinking about whether this could undermine the gains that have been made by Swedish women over the past 150 years,” Ms Hudson said.

Other feminist researchers disagree. “Hogwash,” said Jacqui True, a professor of politics and international relations at Monash University in Australia. How many men are in a population matters less than how much a society is shaped by “hyper-masculine” gender characteristics such as aggression and hierarchies where males are preferred, she argued.

And Annick Wibben, of the University of San Francisco, said gender equality is so “deeply embedded” in Swedish society that comparisons with China or India, where sex-selective abortions have resulted in unnatural surpluses of men, don’t tell you much.

“The way in which masculinity works in different societies needs to be taken into account,” she said.

In Sweden itself, however, there has still been little discussion about the surplus, perhaps because of the link to the sensitive subject of immigration.

AP