MJ Rosenberg and Daniel Luban have both landed on a new memorandum from the Wikileaks cables that shows that the ceasefire was holding in Gaza in the months leading up to the Israeli onslaught of Dec. 2008– but that Israel was worried about Hamas political gains in Gaza and saw military action as a remedy. Horrifying. And even worse than what the Goldstone Report says (please, buy our book).This explains the thoroughgoing attack on gov’t buildings, police stations, anything to do with Hamas. I believe the Egyptian government has been more tolerant of the Muslim Brotherhood… Luban:

the new memo provides more insight into Israeli decision-making. Dated Aug. 29, 2008 (about two months after the beginning of the Tahdiya [truce], and four months before the beginning of Cast Lead), it notes (emphasis added):

Regarding the Tahdiya, [Israeli official David] Hacham said [Defense Minister Ehud] Barak stressed that while it was not permanent, for the time being it was holding. There have been a number of violations of the ceasefire on the Gaza side, but Palestinian factions other than Hamas were responsible. Hacham said the Israelis assess that Hamas is making a serious effort to convince the other factions not to launch rockets or mortars. Israel remains concerned by Hamas’ ongoing efforts to use the Tahdiya to increase their strength, and at some point, military action will have to be put back on the table. The Israelis reluctantly admit that the Tahdiya has served to further consolidate Hamas’ grip on Gaza, but it has brought a large measure of peace and quiet to Israeli communities near Gaza.

Note the wording of the bolded sentence. The memo does not say that the Israelis believe “military action will have to be put back on the table” because at some point Hamas will break the ceasefire, but rather because Hamas would like to maintain the ceasefire to strengthen its position. Thus if the memo accurately reflects the Israeli government’s thinking, it would appear that the Israelis were, from relatively early on, contemplating breaking the ceasefire in order to cut Hamas off at the knees. While the memo simply confirms what many had already suspected, it provides yet another reason to be highly skeptical of the decision to initiate Cast Lead.