The Coalition will form government after a shock result in the federal election. The only question is how did all the polls get it wrong?

There’s a looming problem on the political horizon for Scott Morrison. Like so many of the big destabilising issues that plague party leaders, the fight is building within his own house.

Jim Molan wants back in the Senate and the Coalition will soon need to fill a casual vacancy.

The NSW right warrior received the highest ever personal vote at the last election, but he broke party rules, went against the Coalition agreement and ran his own campaign to do it.

It’s retail reasoning butting up against the reality of factional competitive politics and Mr Morrison is caught in the middle.

If he ignores the electoral pull of Mr Molan he risks the wrath of his supporters. If he rewards his selfish pursuit, he risks the wrath of the National Party.

And yet, the Nationals is where the solution lies.

Mr Molan barely had a chance of being re-elected because his Liberal preselectors relegated him to the fourth, unwinnable position on the Liberal Party group voting ticket. But the former general refused to go out without a fight, and ran his own personal election campaign securing 137,325 votes in his own right.

He’s clearly popular and has a significant electoral pull for the Liberal Party. Perhaps his preselectors got it wrong, but that’s democracy. He signed up for the process and he’s duty bound to respect it.

His great personal victory has left a bad taste in many a mouth. Mr Molan’s numbers are impressive — but they aren’t much compared to the 1.6 million other Liberal voters who ignored his plea and voted “1” above the line.

There’s a view Mr Molan’s campaign contributed to Tony Abbott’s loss in Warringah.

The Federal Electorate Conference president in Mr Abbott’s old seat and his close ally, Walter Villatora, was spearheading the campaign out of the northern beaches electorate.

By drumming up votes for Mr Molan, it confused the message, diverted volunteers, diluted Mr Abbott’s impact and essentially dudded the former prime minister.

And it’s also worth remembering Jim Molan was never meant to be in the Senate — his position was perhaps the most accidental election since Ricky Muir. His elevation only came after two Coalition senators were knocked out by section 44. Fiona Nash was dumped because she held British citizenship by descent from her Scottish-born father. Her replacement, Hollie Hughes, was also found ineligible because she took a Government job with the Administrative Appeals Tribunal after the election.

The constitutional crisis of the 45th Parliament in part means The Nationals in NSW only have one senator to the Liberals’ five. That will correct itself at the next election. The Nationals were in the risky third spot at the 2019 election, but they get the second guaranteed position in 2022.

But in political terms, the next election is a lifetime away.

The issue for the PM now is what to do with the Senate spot held by Arthur Sinodinos now he is heading overseas to be our man in Washington. Senator Sinodinos’s appointment to replace Joe Hockey not only robs Mr Morrison’s party room of a steady hand, it leaves the vacuum of how to fill it.

Mr Morrison will try to stay above the fray, but it will be difficult. He’s the Prime Minister and the NSW division is his home team. Is a new factional war in NSW really worth it for a spot that has an expiry date of two-and-a-half years?

Perhaps this is where Nationals Leader Michael McCormack should come in. He could help himself and the Mr Morrison in the process.

To demand the NSW Liberals give back the Sinodinos vacancy to the NSW Nationals, Mr McCormack would only be asking to have returned something they’d already won — and will get back in 2022.

Most importantly, for the longevity of Mr McCormack’s leadership, it would demonstrate to the malcontents that he’s not as subservient to the Liberals as they think.

NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro told the NSW Nationals Conference at Inverell last Friday he would be willing to give up the Deputy Premiership so as not cow before his Coalition partner.

“As a party, the Nationals are a quarter of a century older than the Libs and like any older sibling we still have the ability to stamp our authority when we need to,” Mr Barilaro said.

“I am flagging that I will be seeking support of my party colleagues and the executive of the NSW Nats to consider a decision that would not be taken lightly, but if it means I can speak more freely and achieve more from the bush, I am prepared to relinquish the title of Deputy Premier.”

Mr McCormack should take a leaf out of the Barilaro playbook — holding 16 seats in the House of Representatives when the Coalition only has 77 should give him more than enough sway.

Laura Jayes is the host of First Edition on Sky News | @ljayes