Briggs: Indy Eleven's stadium proposal is one of 2019's weirdest stories

James Briggs | Indianapolis Star

Show Caption Hide Caption A peek at what the proposed $550 million Eleven Park could look like Apartments and offices and retail space to pedestrian plaza and stadium, this is what the proposed $550 million development project could include.

Now that Major League Soccer is expanding to another city that is not Indianapolis, it’s a good time to ask a question: Why are we still talking about a 20,000-seat soccer stadium for Indy Eleven?

The broad support that has emerged for an Indy Eleven stadium, despite a lack of evidence that the stadium is feasible, has been one of the strangest local stories of 2019. MLS’ announcement Tuesday that Charlotte will host the league’s 30th team makes the proposal seem more unlikely for at least two reasons.

For starters, there is some uncertainty over whether, or when, MLS will get larger than it already is. The league has signaled that it could extend beyond 30 teams, but has not established a timeline. If MLS does expand, there are other prime cities — Las Vegas and Phoenix were unsuccessful finalists in the latest round — waiting to compete for those spots as well.

Forget all that for a moment, though, and assume MLS will grow again soon and Indianapolis is a top competitor. Another challenge is that the price of entry into MLS is soaring out of reach.

David Tepper, the owner of the NFL’s Carolina Panthers, is paying an expansion fee between $300 million and $325 million, which is at least 50% higher than the $200 million fee the St. Louis franchise agreed to pay just four months ago and double the fees charged to franchises in Cincinnati and Nashville in 2017. That trend is not going to reverse itself.

By the time Indianapolis can compete for a franchise again, the price tag will exceed the capacity of regular rich people and be accessible only to the NFL owner class of rich people.

Indy Eleven owner Ersal Ozdemir in January said he is lining up investors to help pay for a potential expansion fee, but the target seems to have moved substantially higher since then.

Perhaps Jim Irsay is secretly a huge soccer fan?

Indy Eleven wants a stadium with, or without, MLS

In any event, Ozdemir and other Indy Eleven executives say they are committed to building a soccer stadium regardless of whether Indianapolis ever wins an MLS franchise.

Ozdemir, the CEO of Indianapolis developer Keystone Group, has proposed a $550 million project called Eleven Park. The plan calls for a mixed-use development anchored by a 20,000-seat soccer stadium. Ozdemir has been pitching various versions of a soccer stadium proposal since 2015.

The Indiana General Assembly at one time considered an MLS franchise essential to the viability of that plan. State lawmakers earlier this year debated offering public support for a soccer stadium based on the stipulation that Indy Eleven owners secure an MLS team by 2022. But, at the last minute, the General Assembly stripped that MLS requirement from a bill and passed it.

It is difficult to understand how the stadium comes to fruition without MLS, though. Indy Eleven has built a solid fan base, but it plays in the United Soccer League, a second-tier professional league, and the team's attendance might already have plateaued.

Indy Eleven would only fill half the stadium

That is an important point, because when Indy Eleven submitted information to state lawmakers in support of its plan, the team estimated it would average a near-sellout over 19 games per year.

This year, though, Indy Eleven reported average attendance of 10,734, up from 10,163 the year before. Indy Eleven ranked No. 2 in league attendance this year. The leader, New Mexico United, averaged 12,693 fans per game.

All of that suggests Indy Eleven would have extreme difficulty averaging anything close to a sellout in a building with 20,000 seats.

It also seems likely that Indy Eleven is underestimating the cost of its stadium, which Ozdemir has pegged at $150 million. The MLS franchise Austin FC, for example, broke ground earlier this year on a same-size stadium that is estimated to cost $242 million. It's hard to imagine a 20,000-seat venue of any kind costing a mere $150 million in the 2020s.

Indy Eleven CEO Greg Stremlaw declined an interview request, saying in an email, “we already furbished information on this topic and many others to The Star very recently.” He noted in the email that he expects MLS to expand again and expressed confidence that Indy Eleven can build a stadium even without MLS.

“We are currently in an exceptional professional soccer league, USL Championship, and our goal is to be the preeminent team in the United Soccer League and lead the League in attendance as well,” Stremlaw said.

Unlike Indy Eleven, Andrew Dettmer, the incoming president of team supporters group the Brickyard Battalion, is not yet fatigued of discussing the stadium prospects. He noted in an interview that since Indy Eleven began playing games in 2014, it has changed both leagues and stadiums, landing at Lucas Oil Stadium for the time being. In the face of those challenges, he said, the team’s popularity is impressive.

“I think it’d be hard to find someone who loves this team who doesn’t understand the need for it to have a home and not be constantly thinking, ‘Are we going to have a stadium to play in next year?’” Dettmer said. “I have full faith the stadium is going to get built regardless of the future of MLS.”

Dettmer, who is an attorney, said he thinks the Indy Eleven organization has demonstrated the ability to do big things.

“I’m not a financial expert. I can’t tell you how the finances work out. I can’t tell you how the team is supposed to make all the ends meet. I will leave that to people far smarter than I am on the logistics side,” Dettmer said. “Since the team came to the city, they have put on a fantastic product. They have been a world-class team.”

Dettmer’s perspective, which represents a group of people who are enthusiastic about watching a home-grown soccer team succeed, is the best evidence that Indy Eleven’s stadium might happen. (Well, that and the inexplicably favorable climate that exists for sports teams seeking public money for stadiums. But that’s another column.)

What Indy Eleven lacks is a stadium site, an MLS franchise and a concrete plan to raise hundreds of millions of dollars and fill the 20,000 seats it wants to build.

What Indy Eleven has is a minor-league-sized base of passionate fans, political support and a growing group of investors. For now, I guess, that’s enough to keep moving forward.

Eventually, though, Indy Eleven is going to have show more than that if it wants people to take its stadium plan seriously.

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Contact IndyStar metro columnist James Briggs at 317-444-6307. Follow him on Twitter: @JamesEBriggs.