Fianna Fáil leader is a key player in breaking parliamentary deadlock, but has ruled out working with Sinn Féin

Ireland’s political deadlock hinges on the cold, hard numbers of parliamentary arithmetic, but there is an additional, nebulous factor: the conscience of Micheál Martin.

The leader of Fianna Fáil is the party leader best positioned to wrangle a government and emerge as taoiseach. It would safeguard his job as party leader and crown his career, giving him a chance to shape history in the Brexit era.

But conscience – others call it blinkeredness and arrogance – may impede Martin from forming a ruling coalition, leading to stalemate, another election and his political oblivion.

The issue is Sinn Féin. Martin has ruled out entering government with the nationalist party on moral grounds: it supported the IRA during the Troubles and allegedly retains links with shadowy figures.

So, in defiance of parliamentary arithmetic and political gravity, he has said no to any deal with Sinn Féin. In a tempestuous Dáil sitting last week, he accused the party of supporting a murderous sectarian campaign, of bullying and antisemitism, and of covering up child abuse by IRA members.

Its leader, Mary Lou McDonald, responded by saying he had a narrow and bitter mind. The door on a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition appeared to slam shut.

“Most politicians would recognise that the Sinn Féin option probably is the best option for the party and the country. But he appears to resist that,” said Eoin O’Malley, associate professor of politics at Dublin City University. “I suspect he’s a very moral person.”

Q&A What are the main political parties in Ireland? Show Hide Fine Gael

Its name can be translated as family or tribe of the Irish. A centre-right party with a socially progressive tilt. In office since 2011, first led by Enda Kenny, then Leo Varadkar, with support from smaller coalition partners. Traces roots to Michael Collins and the winning side in Ireland’s 1922-23 civil war. The party traditionally advocates market economics and fiscal discipline. Appeals to the urban middle class and well-off farmers. Fianna Fáil Its name means Soldiers of Destiny. A centrist, ideologically malleable party that dominated Irish politics until it steered the Celtic Tiger economy over a cliff, prompting decade-long banishment to opposition benches. Under Micheál Martin, a nimble political veteran, it has clawed back support and may overtake Fine Gael as the biggest party and lead the next coalition government. Founded by Éamon de Valera, who backed the civil war’s losing side but turned Fianna Fáil into an election-winning machine. Sinn Féin Its name means We Ourselves, signifying Irish sovereignty. A leftwing republican party that competes in Northern Ireland as well as the Republic. Traces roots to 1905. Emerged in current form during the Troubles, when it was linked to the IRA. Peace in Northern Ireland helped Sinn Féin rebrand as a working-class advocate opposed to austerity. Under Mary Lou McDonald, a Dubliner without paramilitary baggage, Sinn Féin has become the third-biggest party, and its vote share surged in the 2020 election. Others Partnership with Fine Gael during post-Celtic Tiger austerity tainted the centre-left Labour party. The political arm of the trade union movement, it is led by Brendan Howlin, a former teacher and government minister. The Social Democrats and Solidarity-People Before Profit are part of an alphabet soup of smaller, more leftwing parties. The Greens, wiped out in 2011 after a ruinous coalition with Fianna Fáil, have campaigned on the back of climate crisis anxiety and youth-led protests. Independent TDs have prospered in recent elections, turning some into outsized players in ruling coalitions. Rory Carroll

The timing is exquisite. Fianna Fáil long dominated Irish politics through elastic ideology and leaders, such as Charles Haughey and Bertie Ahern, with elastic ethics. To gain and keep power they wheeled and dealed, tacked left and right, and dabbled in populism.

Now it is led by a former school teacher credited with integrity. Instead of Del Boy, in other words, the party has Mr Chips. And that’s not necessarily a good thing.

“It is a problem for Fianna Fáil that they have a leader that is wrestling with his conscience,” said O’Malley. Politicians usually win such bouts, but perhaps not this time, he added. “The conscience may win.”

At 59, Martin is old enough to remember La Mon, Kingsmill, Enniskillen and other IRA atrocities – and Sinn Féin’s attempted justifications.

A less charitable interpretation is that Martin is too stubborn or calculating to accept Sinn Féin’s transformation from pariah to legitimate voice of the left.

The 8 February general election turned the 160-seat Dáil Éireann into a Rubik’s Cube. Sinn Féin won the popular vote and 37 seats. Fianna Fáil won 38. Fine Gael, the ruling party of taoiseach Leo Varadkar, won 35. The Greens won 12 and small leftwing parties and independents won the rest. A stable government requires at least 80 seats, leaving a fiendish political puzzle.

Last week, parliament met to try – in vain – to elect a new taoiseach. No nominee came close to a majority. Varadkar resigned as taoiseach and will continue as caretaker while parties resume trying to form a government – a process expected to last weeks, possibly months.

Sinn Féin would like to lead a leftwing coalition, but the numbers are not there. Varadkar has said he wishes to take Fine Gael into opposition – a position that might change – because after almost a decade in power, voters want change.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Irish MPs meeting in the Dáil Éireann last week to attempt to form a new government. Photograph: Maxwells/Hosues of the Oireachtas/AFP via Getty Images

The most plausible coalitions involve Fianna Fáil teaming up with Fine Gael, or Fianna Fáil teaming up with Sinn Féin, with smaller parties nudging them over the 80-seat threshold.

Martin and Varadkar are due to hold exploratory talks this week. Allying with Varadkar’s party is anathema to many in Fianna Fáil. The parties have a century of rivalry dating from the civil war. And Fianna Fáil just got pummelled at the polls, along with Fine Gael, for having propped up the outgoing government in a confidence and supply deal. Another round of collaboration could invite annihilation at the next election.

Entering government with Sinn Féin, in contrast, would reflect voters’ desire for change – especially in housing and healthcare. It could also, whisper some in Fianna Fáil, halt Sinn Féin’s surge by tangling it in the inevitable, messy compromises of government. Others fear Sinn Féin would instead replace Fianna Fáil as the party of the centre-left, just as it eclipsed the SDLP in Northern Ireland.

Martin has rejected the idea, saying Sinn Féin is not a normal democratic party. Varadkar has also ruled out a pact with Sinn Féin but cited policy differences.

If Martin sticks to his word this means either a coalition with Fine Gael or stalemate and another election, with Fianna Fáil probably dumping Martin for a fresh leader. “If Fianna Fáil is not in government, he would be out,” said Stephen Collins, author of The Power Game: Ireland under Fianna Fáil.

Martin’s allies credit him with empathy born of tragedy – he and his wife Mary have lost two children to illness, one in infancy, the other aged seven. They ascribe a nuanced sense of Irishness to his Cork family’s dual roots in the old IRA, which won independence, and the British army. Martin taught history before entering politics and swiftly rising through Fianna Fáil ranks in the 1980s and 1990s.

As a minister, he often favoured committees and reports over action. “Delay, dither,” said one civil servant who served under him. There were exceptions, notably a 2004 smoking ban that make Ireland the first in the world to ban smoking in workplaces. “He took a decision and rammed it through the cabinet,” said Terry Shannon, a friend and party colleague.

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Martin was still in cabinet when Fianna Fáil drove the Celtic Tiger off a cliff, condemning Ireland to bankruptcy and austerity. His ambition glinted in 2010 after Brian Cowen, the then Fianna Fáil leader, slurred his words, sounding drunk or hungover, in an infamous RTÉ radio interview.

Martin replaced him in time to reap a bitter harvest: a 2011 electoral meltdown blamed on sins of his predecessors. Some predicted Fianna Fáil’s extinction, but under Martin it recovered in the 2016 election. “You don’t get to be leader without having backbone. He brought us back,” said Shannon.

Martin bucked his own party’s line and won liberal kudos by backing the 2018 abortion referendum.

From opposition benches he supported the Fine Gael government – led first by Enda Kenny, then Varadkar – citing need for stability amid Brexit. Many believe Martin extended the confidence and supply deal to let the public tire of Varadkar, who initially enjoyed a honeymoon.

If so, the strategy half-worked. Voters indeed wearied of the taoiseach. But Martin became tainted by association and let Sinn Féin, a party he blames for prolonging the Troubles, seize the mantle of change.

Now Martin faces the biggest test of his career. Coalition talks are winding paths that can lead to unexpected places. A Fianna Fáil government with Sinn Féin is still possible, but might require Martin to step down, said O’Brien. “No matter what Martin does he’s going to have problems.”