I thought it might be fun to put together a model 2019 roster for the beginning of the Matías Almeyda era, where I simulate the offseason as if I were Jesse Fioranelli, to give you an idea of what the makeover might look like. I’ll take it step by step, but you can scroll to the bottom if you don’t care about the process and just want to see the finished product.

Options and Declines

Decline Oduro and Quintana, decline Flo and Hyka if you can, pick up everyone else

I don’t have perfect information on who is up, option-wise, but I do know that Quintana and Oduro do not have guaranteed contracts for next year (Quintana’s option is actually a transfer), and should not be retained. Flo and Hyka are going into the third year of their contracts, which is frequently an option year, and for a mixture of performance and chemistry reasons, combined with their high salaries and age, I would let them walk. Otherwise, I’d generally pick up whatever options are available, one of which should be Shea Salinas (Wondo’s option has already been picked up). I know for a fact that Francois Affolter has a guaranteed 2019 deal, and I’d bet that Qwiberg does too, so both would stay, absent further action.

Expansion Draft

Protect: Vako, Wondo, Godoy, Eriksson, Kashia, Cummings, Hoesen, Calvillo, Luis Felipe, Lima, Yueill

Leave Unprotected: Salinas, Tarbell, Bersano, Ockford, Wehan, Thiaw, Marie, Affolter, Qwiberg

This one isn’t easy. First, I’m assuming that the expansion draft rules are the same as from 2017, and second, I’m assuming that neither Nick Lima nor Jackson Yueill will be eligible for automatic protection, given those rules. If Flo and Hyka don’t have declinable options, they’ll obviously be in the “unprotected” group. It does leave Shea Salinas exposed, but I have my doubts that an older player on a single-year option would get picked up, especially one who isn’t a standout performer.

For simplicity’s sake, I’ll assume no one is selected. And if you don’t see a player on this list, it means he’s not eligible for the expansion draft (all homegrown players not on the senior roster are exempted).

Homegrowns

Sign Amir Bashti and Chistopher Grey

Bashti, an attacking midfielder at Stanford, is the only serious prospect in the organization where the Quakes have to choose between signing him or allowing him to go to the MLS draft, since he’s a graduating senior. Everyone else is in the position where they can accept a homegrown offer, but if they aren’t offered one, will just stay in school and remain exclusively eligible for San Jose.

For me, Bashti has done enough this season to show that he’s worth a pro contract. After a quiet first three years on The Farm, he’s established himself as the centerpiece of Stanford’s attack as a senior. He’s got dazzling technical potential, and decent quickness, but as a smaller, more finesse-oriented player, he didn’t always stand out in the physical college game. The other guy I would sign is Christopher “C.J.” Grey, a left-back prospect out of Cal, who is still just a sophomore. The position is one of desperate need in the first team, and I’ve heard from inside and outside the organization that he’s viewed as one of the better left back prospects in college soccer. He could start out learning as Shea Salinas’s deputy, and take over when ready.

There are plenty of other quality prospects out there. John Austin Ricks (RB/CDM) has been consistently solid for a strong Syracuse program, and Andrew Paoli (CDM) was the Academy’s top prospect out of high school although he hasn’t cemented his place in the lineup at UCLA. Perhaps most likely of all of them to sign eventually is Drake Callender, who is already in the top echelon of college keepers, and has a pro keeper frame, but there’s no real reason to rush him out of college early given the youth of the current depth chart between the posts.

Sort out those on the Reno Bubble

San Jose Players (can be sent down at will): Chris Wehan, Paul Marie, Brian Brown, Gilbert Fuentes

San Jose Players to play in Reno on season-long loans: Jacob Akanyirige, Mohammed Thiaw

Players signed by Reno: Danny Musovski, Kevin Partida, Duke Lacroix

Luis Felipe and Jimmy Ockford have already graduated to fully first team players, showing that the Reno pipeline has paid dividends after just a single year of operation. This offseason, in this hypothetical, I’ll be adding Brian Brown to the senior roster. The Jamaican striker (with domestic eligibility) really came into his game this season, banging in 18 goals and displaying skills that would make him a valuable MLS backup. San Jose will enter the season with just two recognized strikers, and therefore could use some cover.

Going the other direction would be Danny Musovski, who I’d imagine would lose his San Jose contract given how little impact he made in Reno. If he stays in the organization, it would be signed to Reno directly. Thiaw, Akanyirige, Lacroix, and Partida are all potential San Jose guys in the long run, but all are a bit too far away right now to pencil them in to the 2019 first team, so I’ll leave them in Reno until further notice. Marie, Wehan, and Fuentes are all in between the two levels, for my money, and would be best suited to first team contracts where they can bounce back and forth from the minor league affiliate, which is more or less the status quo.

Transfer Market (including re-entry draft)

Sign Isaác Brizuela as a DP, trade for Waylon Francis, ditch Joel Qwiberg

There are about a million different directions to go in to fill the gaping open DP spot, depending on what kinds of players are available and what Almeyda’s technical preferences are. I’ve discussed it before, but you could easily imagine a two-way central midfielder, a creative attacker, or a genuine number 9 in that role. For this exercise, I’ve gone for a speedy winger, which addresses the team’s blatant need for pace. It doesn’t hurt that Brizuela is a former Almeyda player, and as both a Mexican national team player and someone who was born in San Jose, would be a marketing godsend for the club. However, don’t get excited: I’m just suggesting a potential fit, and the plausibility is unfortunately quite low, given how reticent Chivas is to sell its stars, what with their self-imposed “Mexicans only” transfer rules. Then again, who knows what his contract situation is like.

The other place to go out and get someone is at fullback, although there are a lot of different ways of solving that particular problem. You could go and get a starting-quality guy on either side, given that Lima is comfortable on the left. You could also sign a project to develop underneath Shea Salinas and play for the long run. Finally, you really do need a backup right back given that there wasn’t one in 2018. In this simulation, I’ve already signed CJ Grey as the prospect, but that doesn’t necessarily fix things for 2019 if the 19-year-old isn’t ready. Therefore, I’m going to go out and trade for Waylon Francis, the 28-year-old Costa Rican international, who is not exactly a star but better than what the Quakes currently have (since he is, you know, an actual left back and MLS-level). He’s a domestic player, a Spanish-speaker, and comes on a Qwiberg-sized salary so he’ll easily fit into the roster. He hasn’t been getting much game time in Seattle, and the Quakes have a mound of GAM, so this deal should be doable. He might even be available in the re-entry draft, depending on his contract situation.

In contrast, I’m going to stand pat on the backup to Lima on the right, hoping that Paul Marie, Shea Salinas, and perhaps Kevin Partida will be able to cover for him as needed.

The final problem here is exits. I don’t particularly love Affolter at his salary, but I don’t hate it either, and he’s a perfectly adequate backup who no longer takes up an international slot. I’ll assume he stays. In contrast, you have to do everything in your power to get Joel Qwiberg off the roster, including using the once-a-year buyout option, because he’s dead weight in terms of on-field contribution and comes with an onerous combination of salary and international spot. If Flo and Hyka have not been removed from the roster in the prior mechanisms described above, they would be moved here, and I think that both still have value in Europe. There are other players that vocal sections of the fanbase hate (Magnus Eriksson, Andrew Tarbell), but they actually have very palatable cap hits next year, and are probably at the very bottom of their transfer value. Rather than selling low on them, I would prefer to see if they can’t regain some of their value in 2019 under better coaching. They’re also not useless on the roster, given the right role.

SuperDraft

Draft Siad Haji in the first round

Congratulations, Quakes fans! You have the second overall pick in the Superdraft! It’s just about the only comfort in this most unpleasant of seasons.

Unfortunately, MLS is not the NFL, so there’s extremely little in the way of publicly-available scouting reports or mock drafts until about a month before the Superdraft itself. I’ve done a tiny bit of digging, however, and came up with a guy I like as a potential top-2 draft pick.

Siad Haji (who earlier in his career was listed as Abdulkadir Haji) is a midfielder for VCU who primarily played on the right wing, and has accumulated 7 goals and 16 assists in his 33 games there. He’s an underclassman, and would therefore come out on a roster-friendly Generation Adidas deal, and is a domestic player. He’s got a bit of an odd career trajectory (represented the US at three youth levels, yet started his college career at D3 New England College before transferring to VCU), but TopDrawerSoccer has him ranked as the number 3 player in the country, and he’s just 19 years old. His highlight tape shows a player with decent athleticism, a soft touch, good dribbling in traffic, and a real eye for a defense-breaking pass. Although he mostly plays from the right wing, the tape shows him constantly dropping deeper and more centrally, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s actually where his skill set fits best in the long run.

I won’t even bother with the late rounds. Precisely zero non-first-round picks have played meaningful minutes for the first team in my four years covering the club, so I won’t pencil in any now.

Housekeeping

That’s it for off-season transactions, but there are just a few things to note that impact what next year’s roster will look like. First off, the salaries will likely increase across the board because most contracts have built-in escalations, but that’s impossible to predict so I don’t include it.

More importantly, Nick Lima has moved to the Senior Roster as of signing his extension, which leads me to believe he’s in the $200k-$250k range now, and will now count against the cap. Jackson Yueill will be in the third year of his contract, which is generally when Generation Adidas deals revert to normal status, meaning that he too will be against the cap. Finally, Paul Marie is back to counting as a domestic player after league listed him as one during the 2018 draft, even though it turned out he wasn’t.

Where that leaves us:

Player Position Compensation 2019 Cap Hit (est) Roster Spot? Isaác Brizuela RW/LW $2,000,000.00 $504,375.00 Senior, DP Valeri Qazaishvili LW/CAM $1,454,042.36 $504,375.00 Senior, DP, INTL Chris Wondolowski ST $800,000.00 $504,375.00 Senior, DP Anibal Godoy CDM $473,125.04 $473,125.04 Senior Magnus Eriksson RW/CM $399,999.96 $399,999.96 Senior, INTL Harold Cummings CB $300,662.67 $300,662.67 Senior, INTL Francois Affolter CB $232,650.04 $232,650.04 Senior Shea Salinas LB/LW $200,000.00 $200,000.00 Senior Nick Lima RB/LB $200,000.00 $200,000.00 Senior Waylon Francis LB $196,041.67 $196,041.67 Senior Jackson Yueill CM/CDM $196,000.00 $196,000.00 Senior Guram Kashia CB $549,999.96 $150,000.00* Senior, INTL Danny Hoesen ST $518,000.00 $150,000.00* Senior, INTL Eric Calvillo CM $114,999.96 $114,999.96 Senior Andrew Tarbell GK $102,000.00 $102,000.00 Senior Luis Felipe CDM $68,500.00 $68,500.00 Senior Matt Bersano GK $68,254.20 $68,254.20 Senior Jimmy Ockford CB $67,500.00 $67,500.00 Senior Brian Brown ST $67,500.00 $67,500.00 Senior Siad Haji RW/CM $196,000.00 $0.00 Supplemental Tommy Thompson RW/CAM $170,000.00 $0.00 Supplemental JT Marcinkowski GK $132,000.00 $0.00 Supplemental Chris Wehan CM $57,992.00 $0.00 Supplemental Christopher Grey LB $81,999.96 $0.00 Reserve Amir Bashti CAM $81,999.96 $0.00 Reserve Mohammad Thiaw ST $54,500.04 $0.00 Reserve Paul Marie RB $54,500.04 $0.00 Reserve Gilbert Fuentes CM $81,999.96 $0.00 Homegrown Reserve Jacob Akanyirige CB $56,500.04 $0.00 Homegrown Reserve

*Assumes use of TAM

Analysis:

Total Salary Spend: $8.98 million

Total Against the ~$4.30 million cap: $4.50 million

Median Age, Full Roster: 25.83

Median Age, Senior Roster: 27.44

Roster Slots: 29 of 30 overall slots, 5 of 8 international slots

I’m happy with where my roster sits in terms of salary. $200,000 over the cap is actually pretty good, when you factor in General Allocation Money, of which the Quakes should have plenty. There’s also a decent amount of untapped TAM (about $300k) and discretionary TAM (the full $2.8 million) to open up space by, for example, buying down Chris Wondolowski’s cap hit, or that of any prospective signee. That means if a coveted DP-range or TAM-range player comes available, it’ll be very doable. I’m also happy with where I sit in terms of slots, with three international slots to play with and one fully open roster spot. Creating additional roster space will be quite easy, since several of the players will be spending much of their time in Reno anyway. That means that there’s plenty of room to grow and improve as Almeyda learns more about exactly what his team needs. My goal was not to present a “finished” product, but a good starting point that can be added to when the more-fruitful summer window comes around and we know where the team is in its developmental curve.

There are some problems though. The first is that the roster is a bit older than last year, although I’m not particularly concerned about that. The second, more complicated issue is there are quite a few players in the least efficient part of the salary band ($200k-$500k), which makes the roster less flexible and less able to build depth. The third and most important issue, however, is that it doesn’t represent a wholesale makeover: there are a lot of places that could be improved. As alluded to above, my approach was more to create the flexible space for aggressive moves rather than to speculate about what they may be. I think natural areas for upgrade could be the CB across from Kashia and another difference-making pivot midfielder, given that we’re down to just three who are natural in that role, and only one (Godoy) with a proven track record, all for a coach who appears to like the double-pivot. And of course, you can simply never turn down a passer/creator if an elite one comes along.

The bottom line of it, however, is that when I look at the roster I’ve constructed above, I think it’s absolutely a playoff team with the right coaching. There are so many younger players with untapped potential that the right coach could bring out, and so many older players that were miscast and played below their talent level. Adding a major DP of the caliber of Brizuela, combined with filling some obvious needs such as left back, should be all that the club needs to go from “horrifying” to “passable.” That is, however, quite a long way away from “cup contenders,” which for me will take at least another season of moves as the core of this very bad team ages out and gets moved on.

Resulting Depth Chart (4-2-3-1)

First Choice Second Choice Developmental ST Wondo Danny Hoesen Brian Brown, Mo Thiaw LW Magnus Eriksson Chris Wehan Amir Bashti CAM Vako Eric Calvillo RW Isaac Brizuela Tommy Thompson Siad Haji CM – 8 Jackson Yueill Gilbert Fuentes CM – 6 Anibal Godoy Luis Felipe LB Waylon Francis Shea Salinas CJ Grey, Duke Lacroix CB Harold Cummings Francois Affolter Jacob Akanyirige CB Guram Kashia Jimmy Ockford RB Nick Lima Paul Marie Kevin Partida GK JT Marcinkowski Andrew Tarbell Matt Bersano

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