Manchester City has been the most inconsistent team in the Premier League — sometimes utterly dominant and yet capable of 10-match streaks with more big chances conceded than created. Liverpool, particularly under new Manager Jürgen Klopp, features one of the strangest statistical profiles in Europe. And the Reds have recently played some of their strongest matches of the season, which could indicate a team finally rounding into form.

The questions for this match, then, are not about one or the other side winning, but rather the players and tactical battles to watch.

For Manchester City, the story remains Vincent Kompany. With Kompany in the lineup, City has an expected goals difference of about plus-1.4 per match, and without the Belgian center back it drops to about plus-0.3. With City’s central midfield aging out of elite quality, Manuel Pellegrini needs his center backs to clean up chances behind. Against Tottenham two weeks ago, City was nearly perfect and conceded only one good chance in 90 minutes. Of course, Eriksen finished his one-on-one with the keeper, while City could only score one of three big chances, and a poor penalty call gave the match to Spurs.

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In the two full-strength matches City has played since the return of Kompany — against the Spurs and a Champions League tie in Kiev — Pellegrini’s side has created six big chances and conceded only the one. There is good reason to think that City will be back to its level for the Cup Final, but with the inconsistency in the club’s play over the full season, it is difficult to be too confident.

Liverpool, if anything, is even more confusing. Since Klopp took over, it has attempted the most shots in the Premier League (305) and conceded the second-fewest (164). Despite this, the Reds have been outscored 10-8 and created only a few more good chances than their opponents. The following chart shows how Liverpool’s shot dominance under Klopp has not reflected superior chance creation.

The problem for Liverpool seems to be that while the club has grown highly effective at winning possession and pushing forward, no one can make the key last pass or run to break down the defense. Liverpool can get into good attacking areas outside the box at pace, but Klopp’s side stops there and eventually settles for a poor shot. The following chart shows how effective Liverpool has been at entering the central attacking zone (the central area of the final third, outside the box) on the counterattack.

No one plays more counterattacking passes into this region, and the other clubs which show up at the top of the list also produce good chances in high numbers. But Liverpool does not. The problem is greatly one of personnel. Klopp has a roster full of hard-working, ball-winning central midfielders such as Emre Can, Jordan Henderson and James Milner, but very few incisive runners and passers. So they can win the ball and then push forward quickly into good areas, but they lack the skills to make the most of that position.

A few indicators suggest that things are improving, however. With striker Daniel Sturridge back in the lineup, Liverpool won 6-0 over Aston Villa. Then in a Europa League tie against FC Augsburg, the Reds dominated the chances by as large a margin as they had all season.

It is possible that the addition of one more attacking player, combined with the side’s gradual improvement in Klopp’s system, has flipped a switch for Liverpool. The sample is far too small, and the competition far too weak to draw any strong conclusions. But if Liverpool is doing more with its possession than passing into the final third and trying potshots from range, this may be an indicator that the club’s improved attacking play in the last two weeks marks a real chance. If that happens, Liverpool could challenge for Klopp’s first silverware in England.