Zach Mulder

The last time the Toronto Maple Leafs made the playoffs was the 2012-2013 lockout-shortened season. They faced the Boston Bruins in a series which, as you most likely remember (or don’t because it’s been blocked from your memory,) they lost in heartbreaking fashion.

Since the end of that season almost four years ago times have not been bright in Toronto. The following season they finished nine points out of a playoff spot in the newly minted Atlantic Division. The season after, they were 31 points out and fourth worst in the NHL. Last season, well they were the worst team in the league.

Throughout all of this there were promising changes sparked by that crushing defeat in game seven. In April of 2014, Brendan Shanahan was hired, bringing with him the Shana-plan and some hope for Leafs nation. This was followed with the hiring of Mike Babcock and Lou Lamoriello the following year. Management has undergone drastic changes since 2013, providing Leaf fans with something they haven’t had in a very long time. Confidence in their front office.

The Leafs roster in the 2012-2013 season was not a good one. There were bright spots, but in general it was a mess. Looking at the stats, it’s impressive they made it as far as they did. At face value, their standard statistics look alright. Phil Kessel led the team with 52 points in 48 games. Nazem Kadri and James van Riemsdyk followed with 44 and 32 respectively. These are decent numbers in a shortened season, however looking deeper, the Leafs advanced statistics told a much more troubling story.

Corsi is considered the premiere advanced stat, and it’s mostly used to explain a team’s ability to possess the puck. 50% is an even Corsi rating. It means the player gives up the same amount of shots as they’re creating while they’re on the ice. If a player is above 55% they are usually considered elite. If a player is below 45% they are usually not good. Possession is a good indicator of how good a team is, as in most instances the team that has more chances to score, scores more, and therefore wins.

The Leafs as a team in 2012-2013 had a Corsi% of 44.1%, the worst in the NHL. They made the playoffs off the back of some incredible goaltending by James Reimer, who had a save percentage (Sv%) of .924, as well as by having the league high shooting percentage (Sh%) of 10.57.

That Leaf team did not have a single player with a positive (over 50%) Corsi%. The closest they had was Jake Gardiner with 49% and Clarke MacArthur with 48.9%. Out of the 24 players that saw the ice at some point in the Leafs playoff series, 12 of them had a Corsi% under 45%. This is astoundingly awful, and it showed in their series against Boston.

In that series, the Leaf’s Corsi numbers actually regressed further. Clarke MacArthur led the team with 50.8%, however the number of players under 45% increased from 12, to 16. As heartbreaking as their game seven collapse was, the stats pointed to it happening.

Looking at the Leafs now, only five members of that 2013 team remain. Those players are Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner, James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov, and Tyler Bozak. The changes are clear to anyone who watches the team play. They’re faster, more skilled and almost every stat points to them being a better team.

The five players left have all drastically improved their games since 2013. All of their Corsi numbers have improved, by significant margins. Out of the five, only Komarov has a Corsi% under 50%, and it’s at 49%. This would have tied him for the best Corsi% on the 2013 Leafs. Gardiner has improved from 49% to 52.5%, good enough to tie him for second on the Leafs among players who have played at least 20 games. Van Riemsdyk has improved from 45.9% to 52%, Kadri has improved from 47.7% to 51.5% and Bozak has improved from 46.3% to 51.4%.

Of course, a lot of this can be attributed to the increased talent surrounding them. Bozak and van Riemsdyk have a certain Mitch Marner on their line, while Kadri and Komarov have had either William Nylander or Connor Brown joining them. Nylander is tied with Gardiner for second best Corsi% at 52.5%, and both Marner and Brown are over 50%. With that being said, a lot of that increase can also be attributed to the development and growth of the players themselves. A 6.1% increase by van Riemsdyk is not just from the addition of Marner.

The five returning players were bound to see improvement, as the rest of the roster is much better than it was in 2013. The Leafs leading scorer is Auston Matthews, with 67 points. He has 39 goals, more than Kessel managed in any of his seasons as a Leaf, and is most likely going to hit 40 before the season ends. Right behind him is Mitch Marner, who has 61 points with 19 goals and 42 assists. The rookie holy trinity is capped off by William Nylander, who has 60 points with 22 goals and 38 assists. These numbers are amazing, especially when you consider it’s all three players rookie seasons. However, the advanced stats of the roster on whole show the brightest light.

The Leafs have a team Corsi% of 50.1%, good enough for 15th in the NHL. But looking at the individual Corsi% of the players on the roster, it’s easy to hope that the team number will climb even higher in the coming years.

Out of the 20 players currently on the Leaf’s active roster who have played more than 20 games this season, only Ben Smith has a Corsi% of under 45%. The Leafs solved the Smith problem by acquiring Brian Boyle from Tampa at the trade deadline, and in his 18 games he has a Corsi% of 48.5%.

Furthermore, out of those 20 players, 12 of them have a Corsi% over 50%. This is an astronomical difference from the Leafs of 2013. Going into the playoffs, this Leafs team doesn’t show the same signs of concern that they did in 2013. In fact, those once weaknesses have turned into strengths. With a young team filled with skill, spirit and the ability to not lose the puck to a blind old lady, the 2017 Leafs are set to make a splash in the playoffs. At the start of the season, nobody would have predicted the playoffs were in store for this team. But it’s happening.

The Leafs are here, and this time, they’re legit.

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