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8 reasons Buffalo Bills could make the playoffs

Orchard Park, N.Y. — Maybe Sean McDermott was on to something with that whole "playoff caliber" mantra.

McDermott has that printed on t-shirts and plastered to walls all around the Buffalo Bills' facility. The people in that building have believed it since McDermott arrived, but after a 2-1 start, some outside the building are starting to wonder about the team's chances to end the 17-year playoff drought.

Yes, it's still early and the Bills have a lot of work to do. But here's a few reasons to buy into the hype.

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Tyrod Taylor has shown signs of improvement

Which Tyrod Taylor are the Bills going to get? Is it going to be the one who threw for 125 yards in Carolina or the one who was efficient and productive in throwing for two touchdowns against the Broncos? If Taylor can repeat his Week 3 performance more often than not, the Bills are going to have a chance to win against most teams. It may not be enough to keep up with elite offenses like the Falcons and Patriots, but the Bills don't play those teams every week.

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LeSean McCoy still hasn't hit his stride

The Bills are 2-1 to start the season, and they haven't even gotten the best from LeSean McCoy. In the last two games, McCoy has had just 30 combined rushing yards. He's still been a steady contributor in the passing game, but if the Bills are where they are without a strong running game, they have considerable potential if they can find consistency in that area.

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The schedule isn't as hard as it looked

Playing a total of three games against the Falcons and Patriots doesn't make for an easy schedule, but the rest of the Bills' 2017 slate doesn't look quite as daunting as it did when the schedule was released. The Buccaneers, Saints and Raiders are all beatable teams considering the Bills play them at home. Meanwhile, the Bengals, Chargers and Dolphins all look like average teams early in the season.

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The defense is legit

Through three games, the Buffalo Bills' defense has allowed two touchdowns on 35 drives. The Bills haven't allowed a passing touchdown. They will face tougher challenges than the Jets, Panthers and Broncos, but this looks like a group that will keep the Bills in every game.

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The Bills look well coached

Sean McDermott has made a few errors in time management, but he has the Bills playing fast and playing with a ton of energy each week. Gone are the day of the Bills having 10 players on the field or trying to get a last-second audible communicated to the entire team. The defense is firing on all cylinders in part because of the communication from coach to player and from player to player. That could make a big difference in deciding games.

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Analytics look kindly on Bills

Football Outsiders calculates DVOA, which stands for Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average. Every play in an NFL game is assigned a value based on the situation. Essentially, teams and players are scored based on how they performed compared to how the average team or player would have been expected to perform in that situation.

Long story short, DVOA has been a strong predictor of success. At this point, the Bills rank No. 7 in the league in this efficiency stat. Further, they are No. 2 in defensive DVOA. That's not a bad start. For context, the Bills were No. 5 in DVOA through three weeks in 2015 and No. 6 in DVOA through three weeks in 2014, so there is work to still be done.

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Game-by-game look

It's easy to think about the Bills' playoff chances in theory, but our Ryan Talbot went through the schedule game-by-game to look at Buffalo's chances at 10 wins. It's not as farfetched as it seemed a few weeks ago.

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Wide receivers can only get better

The Bills haven't gotten a whole lot out of Jordan Matthews and Zay Jones to this point. But it's still early. Jones is a rookie who was thrown into a starting role sooner than expected. He has to get better than he's been through three weeks. Meanwhile, Matthews missed most of the preseason and is still developing chemistry with Tyrod Taylor. This position group isn't going to transform into one of the best in the league, but it's fair to expect improvement on the first three games.

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