Matches like Belgium’s 2-1 victory over Brazil serve to underline the difficulty of assessing managers’ strategic decisions.

On one hand, Belgium coach Roberto Martinez stunned Brazil by using an entirely unexpected system, deploying key players in new roles and shifting smoothly between a three-man defence and a back four. Belgium went ahead early, counter-attacked for a second goal, then dropped deep to defend their lead. It was strategic genius.

On the other, Belgium started nervously, were twice fortunate not to go behind, were gifted their opener by an unforced Brazilian error, then conceded too much possession and space in wide areas, were outfoxed by Tite’s tactical changes, and relied upon debatable refereeing decisions and poor Brazilian finishing to scrape through. The ‘expected goals’ models suggest this should have been a comfortable Brazil win.

(www.sharemytactics.com)

What is undeniable, however, is that Martinez’s tactical decisions made for fascinating viewing. Having previously used a 3-4-3 formation throughout this tournament, here he switched to a 4-3-1-2, or arguably a 4-3-3 with a false nine, and used Romelu Lukaku as a right-sided forward, a position he’d occasionally played under Martinez at Everton with great success. Eden Hazard was therefore playing the part of Kevin Mirallas, which roughly works based upon nationality alone, and left Kevin De Bruyne as the Steven Naismith figure, a less obvious comparison.

Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Show all 22 1 /22 Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Alisson 5 Brazil's goalkeeper Alisson reacts after taking a second goal during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / Luis Acosta / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS LUIS ACOSTA/AFP/Getty Images LUIS ACOSTA AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Marcelo 5 Brazil's defender Marcelo thumbs up during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / BENJAMIN CREMEL / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS BENJAMIN CREMEL/AFP/Getty Images BENJAMIN CREMEL AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Miranda 4 Brazil's defender Miranda eyes the ball during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / BENJAMIN CREMEL / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS BENJAMIN CREMEL/AFP/Getty Images BENJAMIN CREMEL AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Thiago Silva 6 Brazil's defender Thiago Silva gestures during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / BENJAMIN CREMEL / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS BENJAMIN CREMEL/AFP/Getty Images BENJAMIN CREMEL AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Fagner 5 Brazil's defender Fagner carries the ball during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / Manan VATSYAYANA / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS MANAN VATSYAYANA/AFP/Getty Images MANAN VATSYAYANA AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Fernandinho 4 Brazil's midfielder Fernandinho passes the ball during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / Jewel SAMAD / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images JEWEL SAMAD AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Willian 5 KAZAN, RUSSIA - JULY 06: Willian of Brazil looks on during the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia Quarter Final match between Brazil and Belgium at Kazan Arena on July 6, 2018 in Kazan, Russia. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) Catherine Ivill Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Paulinho 5 KAZAN, RUSSIA - JULY 06: Paulinho of Brazil goes down injured during the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia Quarter Final match between Brazil and Belgium at Kazan Arena on July 6, 2018 in Kazan, Russia. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) Catherine Ivill Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Gabriel Jesus 4 KAZAN, RUSSIA - JULY 06: Gabriel Jesus of Brazil looks on during the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia Quarter Final match between Brazil and Belgium at Kazan Arena on July 6, 2018 in Kazan, Russia. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) Catherine Ivill Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Philippe Coutinho 6 Brazil's forward Philippe Coutinho controls the ball during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / Roman Kruchinin / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS ROMAN KRUCHININ/AFP/Getty Images ROMAN KRUCHININ AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Neymar 5 KAZAN, RUSSIA - JULY 06: Neymar Jr of Brazil reacts during the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia Quarter Final match between Brazil and Belgium at Kazan Arena on July 6, 2018 in Kazan, Russia. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images) Laurence Griffiths Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Thibaut Courtois 8 Belgium goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois makes a save during the quarterfinal match between Brazil and Belgium at the 2018 soccer World Cup in the Kazan Arena, in Kazan, Russia, Friday, July 6, 2018. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco) Francisco Seco AP Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Toby Alderweireld 6 Brazil's forward Neymar (L) vies with Belgium's defender Toby Alderweireld during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / SAEED KHAN / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS SAEED KHAN/AFP/Getty Images SAEED KHAN AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Vincent Kompany 7 Belgium's defender Vincent Kompany celebrates after Brazil scored an own goal during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / Luis Acosta / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS LUIS ACOSTA/AFP/Getty Images LUIS ACOSTA AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Jan Vertonghen 6 Soccer Football - World Cup - Quarter Final - Brazil vs Belgium - Kazan Arena, Kazan, Russia - July 6, 2018 Belgium's Jan Vertonghen in action with Brazil's Willian REUTERS/Toru Hanai TORU HANAI REUTERS Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Thomas Meunier 6 Belgium's defender Thomas Meunier controls the ball during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / Roman Kruchinin / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS ROMAN KRUCHININ/AFP/Getty Images ROMAN KRUCHININ AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Nacer Chadli 6 Belgium's midfielder Nacer Chadli (L) vies with Brazil's defender Fagner during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / EMMANUEL DUNAND / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images EMMANUEL DUNAND AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Axel Witsel 5 epa06869621 Neymar (L) of Brazil and Axel Witsel of Belgium in action during the FIFA World Cup 2018 quarter final soccer match between Brazil and Belgium in Kazan, Russia, 06 July 2018. (RESTRICTIONS APPLY: Editorial Use Only, not used in association with any commercial entity - Images must not be used in any form of alert service or push service of any kind including via mobile alert services, downloads to mobile devices or MMS messaging - Images must appear as still images and must not emulate match action video footage - No alteration is made to, and no text or image is superimposed over, any published image which: (a) intentionally obscures or removes a sponsor identification image; or (b) adds or overlays the commercial identification of any third party which is not officially associated with the FIFA World Cup) EPA/DIEGO AZUBEL EDITORIAL USE ONLY DIEGO AZUBEL EPA Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Marouane Fellaini 6 Belgium's midfielder Marouane Fellaini controls the ball during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / BENJAMIN CREMEL / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS BENJAMIN CREMEL/AFP/Getty Images BENJAMIN CREMEL AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Kevin De Bruyne 8 Belgium's midfielder Kevin De Bruyne looks on during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / BENJAMIN CREMEL / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS BENJAMIN CREMEL/AFP/Getty Images BENJAMIN CREMEL AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Eden Hazard 7 Belgium's forward Eden Hazard adjusts his captain's band during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / BENJAMIN CREMEL / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS BENJAMIN CREMEL/AFP/Getty Images BENJAMIN CREMEL AFP/Getty Images Brazil vs Belgium player ratings: World Cup 2018 Romelu Lukaku 9 Belgium's forward Romelu Lukaku reacts during the Russia 2018 World Cup quarter-final football match between Brazil and Belgium at the Kazan Arena in Kazan on July 6, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / Luis Acosta / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS LUIS ACOSTA/AFP/Getty Images LUIS ACOSTA AFP/Getty Images

After Belgium had survived a couple of set-piece scares and Fernandinho had diverted a corner into his own net, Belgium’s system truly came alive on the counter-attack at 1-0 up. As the first half continued, it became clear Belgium’s approach had a further nuance: although it was a four-man defence without possession, when Belgium won the ball they reverted to a back three, with Nacer Chadli shuttling to the left, and Thomas Meunier pushing forward down the right.

The runs of the latter became particularly important, because Brazil simply weren’t defending the left flank. Marcelo, when not caught upfield at turnovers, was dragged inside by Lukaku. Meunier was free on the overlap on two notable occasions in the first half, first when he played a low cross towards Lukaku, then when his presence meant the overloaded Marcelo couldn’t close down De Bruyne properly, allowing the midfielder to drive home Belgium’s second.

Brazil appeared utterly incapable of defending counter-attacks throughout the first half, with Fernandinho proving a disastrous replacement for the suspended Casemiro. De Bruyne was continually left unmarked at turnovers, allowed to bring the ball down and dribble at the Brazilian defence, with Hazard to his left and Lukaku breaking inside from the right, Martinez’s dream scenario. Fernandinho was often covering for Fagner at right-back, and Marcelo was too high up the pitch. Belgium, in truth, didn’t take full advantage of these situations, with a couple of underhit passes from De Bruyne preventing his side from converting promising counter-attacks into goalscoring chances.

Romelu Lukaku's presence on the right wing caught out Brazil and helped Belgium take a surprise lead (EPA)

Brazil may have failed to defend the left flank properly, but the combination of Marcelo, Philippe Coutinho and Neymar looked dangerous going forward, often overloading Meunier, excellent offensively but overrun defensively. Marouane Fellaini lacked the mobility to support him and Lukaku remained in an attacking position, a calculated gamble. Brazil made inroads.

Tite changed things at half-time, introducing Roberto Firmino in place of the underwhelming Willian, with Gabriel Jesus moving to the right. Tite subsequently brought on Douglas Costa in place of Jesus, ending up with the Neymar-Firmino-Costa forward trio that many observers would have preferred from the outset. Tite remained loyal to Jesus, who starred in qualification, but in Russia Brazil haven’t stretched opponents enough without the presence of Costa down the right.

Somewhat surprisingly, however, it was Brazil’s third substitute, Renato Augusto, who provided the greatest goal threat having replaced Paulinho. With Jan Vertonghen now dragged wide because of Costa’s threat, and Kompany too attracted to Firmino’s movement into clever inside-left positions, space opened up between them. Augusto twice charged into that space, first to nod home Coutinho’s excellent chip, then receiving a low pass, again from Coutinho, before sidefooting wide of the far post.

This was where Belgium’s hybrid defensive approach fell down: at transitions they were sometimes caught between taking the positions of a back four and a back three. Gaps appeared, and they should have been punished long before Martinez eventually switched to a 5-3-1-1 for the final 10 minutes.

Equally, Belgium should have exploited their own counter-attacking chances. After an hour, they again found themselves in Martinez’s ideal situation: De Bruyne dribbling through the centre, Hazard free left and Lukaku available on the right. De Bruyne switched the ball left to Hazard, who shot across goal when he might have squared for Lukaku.

Ultimately it was Brazil who will rue their misses, with Meunier increasingly incapable of stopping Neymar. Brazil’s star man squared for Firmino, who shot over on the spin, then he pulled the ball back for Coutinho, who sliced hopelessly wide. Thibaut Courtois palmed over his curled effort in stoppage time, but Belgium’s goalkeeper was forced into relatively few saves considering Belgium’s number of chances.

Martinez has guided Belgium into the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time (AP)