Nineteen-year-old Cuban outfielder Luis Robert will be eligible to sign with a team Saturday, but the Cincinnati Reds are unlikely to win the bidding. Robert could be the last bank-breaking talent to come out of Cuba, and the asking price likely has already left the Reds’ comfort zone.

“We’ve had discussions with the agent and are getting the sense that it’s moving beyond something that we are able to do,” said general manager Dick Williams.

The Reds have liked Robert for a while, and held a private workout for him at their facility in the Dominican Republic in the last month. Since they’re one of several teams who blew past their international spending limit during the current signing period – triggering firmer limits for the next two cycles – there was added incentive to splurge now.

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But signing Robert would come with a big cost. Like any team over their limit, the Reds would have had to pay a 100 percent penalty to Major League Baseball for whatever bonus Robert accepted. Various reports have placed the minimum to even start the bidding at $20 million, which would essentially mean a total price tag of $40 million.

That would have taken the Reds far beyond what they’d ever paid for an amateur player. They set that record last season when they signed Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez to a bonus of $7 million, triggering $2 million of penalties and bringing the total acquisition cost to $9 million. They broke that record again to sign Cuban right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez for a total of $9.5 million – a $4.75 million bonus and $4.75 million penalty.

Signing Robert could possibly have meant more than quadrupling that number. Williams suggested the Reds were willing to dip into uncharted territory for the franchise, but there’s a large gap between what’s new but doable for the Reds and what Robert could wind up receiving.

Not insignificantly, the penalty must be paid in a lump sum, which would mean the Reds could have had to forfeit more than $20 million on the spot. (Bonuses can be paid out piecemeal.)

“We saw a player we liked and were willing to go to a certain amount for him if we can get him,” Williams said. “There’s a certain amount beyond which a franchise in our market just can’t afford.”

Williams expects the 6-foot-2, 180-pound Robert to sign fairly quickly. Reports from both Yahoo Sports and Baseball America list the Chicago White Sox and St. Louis Cardinals as the favorites to land him. The White Sox would have to exceed their pool to do so, while the Cardinals are in the same boat as the Reds – already over their pool and facing spending restrictions in future seasons.

But, like with many players coming over from Cuba, there is added uncertainty about how good Robert will be. The Reds liked what they saw in their private workout, but Williams acknowledged that such an environment is rather antiseptic.

“A workout is a controlled environment and it’s hard to learn everything you want to know about a player in that situation,” Williams said. “It makes it that much harder to spend the kind of money it’s going to take to land this guy.”

The current signing period ends June 15, and Robert must sign by then to ensure a big-money deal. Afterward, the system changes to his detriment and to the Reds’ benefit. Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, no team will have the ability to spend double-digit millions on entire class of international amateurs, much less one player.

That helps a small-market team like the Reds, since it evens the playing field against deeper-pocketed clubs. But it will end much of the hype around Cuban expats.

“It’s going to change what you can pay these guys,” Williams said. “This could certainly be the last big one.”