Is Valanciunas poised for a breakout season? Few topics tend to draw the ire of Raptors fans quite like the usage of Jonas Valanciunas. There are many who feel the big man is underused by the club, but as TSN's Josh Lewenberg explains, that may be well change this season.

Josh Lewenberg TSN Raptors Reporter Follow|Archive

TORONTO - Few topics tend to draw the ire of Raptors fans quite like the usage of Jonas Valanciunas.

'How come they don't give him more touches, why isn't he playing in the fourth quarter and when is the 24-year-old going to be unleashed on the league?', they would ask with occasional malice directed at the team's decision makers.

Dwane Casey has heard those cries but neither he nor the organization are fazed by them. They have been consistent in their approach with the young centre, bringing him along slowly and maintaining his time will come. Perhaps it has.

With his all-star teammates struggling, Valanciunas was in the middle of a timely coming-out party last spring before an ankle injury cut his impressive post-season run short. Since then, both Casey and Raptors president Masai Ujiri have indicated the 7-footer is in line for more responsibility in this, his fifth NBA campaign.

"Yes, he is [ready for a bigger role]," Ujiri said back in May. "Even from talking to [Casey], we feel that way, Jonas feels that way and I think the players feel that way. We saw where he was going [before the injury]."

Is a Valanciunas breakout season on the horizon? While there's certainly cause for optimism, it's fair to be skeptical. There are plausible reasons both for and against it.



WHY HE WON'T BREAK OUT

• His role hasn't changed much since the team started to win

His minutes per game over the last three years (beginning with his sophomore season) are as follows: 28.2, 26.2, 26.0. His field goal attempts per contest: 8.3, 8.2, 8.9. Post touches: 5.9, 5.4, 6.2, and overall touches: 46.2, 38.7, 45.5. Although he appeared in the fourth quarter of 83 per cent of the games he played last season (50 of 60), up from 71 per cent the year before (57 of 80), he averaged just 5.4 minutes in the final frame - ranked eighth among Toronto's regulars and a full minute fewer than his back-up Bismack Biyombo.

• The roster makeup hasn't changed much and, with the exception of a few wrinkles, the offence isn't likely to either

Valanciunas' reality on a team with two ball-dominant, high volume guards remains the same. As long as DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are on the roster and healthy, JV is a distant third option, at best.

"JV can score," Casey said earlier this month. "I don't know if our offence is constituted for him to get as many touches. We're probably going to have to do that some more to get some more points in the post but mainly for him to take the next step for us is on the defensive end."

Lowry was third in the NBA in front court touches per game last season (79.6) and DeRozan finished seventh among non-point guards (58.8). Valanciunas, for the sake of comparison, averaged 22.3 - seventh-best on his own team behind Lowry, DeRozan, Cory Joseph, DeMarre Carroll, Luis Scola and Patrick Patterson. Although the offence can get stagnant at times, it has ranked among the top-5 in efficiency in each of the last two seasons. If it's not broke, they're unlikely to fix it.

• The league continues to get smaller and faster

And that's sure to be a factor late in games, as it has been the past few years. When teams go small in crunch time, Casey has opted to match up with quicker, more versatile defenders that can close out on shooters and switch the pick and roll. Valanciunas has made strides in these areas but will always be held back by his natural limitations as a 7-foot, 265-pound centre. Even with Biyombo gone Casey will have options, should he choose to go small - he can pair Jared Sullinger with Patterson in the front court or slide Carroll over to the four with one of those bigs.



WHY HE WILL BREAK OUT

• Little depth behind him

For most of last season Casey platooned Valanciunas (26.0 minutes per game) and Biyombo (22.0 MPG) at the centre position but now, without the luxury of a reliable and experienced back-up, they will almost certainly be forced to lean on their starter more than ever. With only Lucas Nogueira and rookies Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam - three bigs with a combined 35 games of NBA experience - behind him, Valanciunas should exceed 30.0 minutes per game for the first time in his career. Even if he doesn't become a priority in their offence, additional court time means more opportunity for the big man.

• Expectations have gone up

That's what happens when you get paid. The four-year, $64 million contract extension that Valanciunas signed in the summer of 2015 kicks in this season. The substantial long-term investment they made in him is one of the biggest reasons they were unable to retain Biyombo. They're all in on JV and there would be no sense in allowing him to waste away.

But, most importantly...

• He's earned it

Defensively, Valanciunas is not Biyombo - few are, to be fair - and he never will be, but he's come a long way on that end of the floor, evident late last season and into the playoffs. On the offensive end, he has blossomed into one of the league's most efficient low-post scorers, ranking in the top-15 in field goal percentage in each of his four pro seasons. With opponents locking in on DeRozan and Lowry last spring, Valanciunas stepped up and added a new dimension to the Raptors' offence, one Indiana and Miami could not shut down. He averaged 15.0 points and 12.1 rebounds in 10 playoff games before getting hurt.

The question is: how can they get more out of him for 82 games, before finding themselves in another situation where they are in desperate need of his scoring? That's on Lowry and DeRozan as much as it's on Casey and the coaching staff.

"He's deserving of it," DeRozan said. "It's nothing that needs to be talked about. He earned that and it's definitely going to come. And I think he's more comfortable with being in that position now. So it's just us really making a concerted effort to make sure it's an inside-outside type of thing so we can have a rhythm as a team.

"We carry a big load. Now it's time for, like I said, JV to earn that right to be able to take the load off us, where we can lean on him and kind of find that balance within so we can be a better team."

Now they have got to do it and it may take some creativity on their part. Even if they're reluctant to play through JV in the post, Lowry and DeRozan can do a better job of finding him on the move and in the pick and roll. Meanwhile, Casey would be wise to stagger JV's minutes with Lowry and DeRozan some, so his additional playing time comes with the second unit, when one or both of the guards are on the bench, and he can be more of an offensive focal point.

It seems like more than just lip service. While you're entitled to take a 'wait and see approach', the team has never been this open to expanding JV's role, at least not publicly. To what extent they plan on doing so remains to be seen. However, with so much of the payroll tied up in their top four players, if they're going to improve, if they're going to take the next step, it almost has to be through internal growth. It's in their best interest to find a way to better utilize one of their biggest assets.

"Think about how young Jonas is in this league and the expectations he's had over the years and he still has a lot of growing to do and a lot of potential there," Casey said of his 24-year-old centre. "I really like Jonas' future because he's got great hands, he can score and at the end of the games he can make free throws. So the sky is the limit for him."