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The labour dispute that cancelled the opening of B.C. public schools Tuesday is pitting the financial pressures faced by striking teachers against the public pressures on the provincial government to reopen classrooms.

And in that war of wills, teachers may blink first, a University of B.C. education professor says.

“Of those two forces, the government is in a position to hold out longer than the teachers are,” Wayne Ross said in an interview. “Public pressure will increase but financial pressure on the rank and file will increase faster. They have the same pressures as everyone else on a monthly basis.”

Ross said the government’s strategy is to hold out, let the teachers feel the financial hardship of being on strike, and then reach a negotiated settlement that nullifies two court rulings that went in favour of the teachers.

“Basically, the government is asking the teachers to give up what they’ve won in court.”

In 2002, the B.C. government removed clauses from the teachers’ contract that guaranteed working conditions and it legislated a prohibition from bargaining those issues.

In 2011, B.C. Supreme Court Justice Susan Griffin found the measures violated the teachers’ constitutional right to freedom of association, which includes the right of a union to collectively bargain with an employer over working conditions. She gave the government a year to fix the unconstitutional legislation.

In 2014, Griffin ruled for the second time that the government had violated teachers’ constitutional rights when it stripped class size, class composition and specialist teacher ratios out of their collective agreement and she retroactively restored the old provisions to the contract, but noted they could be subject to bargaining in future. The government received a stay of the decision pending its appeal, set for October.

“The government doesn’t want to legislate them back,” Ross said. “If the government can get a negotiated contract that says anything less than what Justice Griffin’s decision has in it, then they win. If they can get a negotiated contract, they save themselves from being three-time losers in the courts.”

George Abbott, who served as education minister from 2010 to 2012 and is now with Victoria consulting company Circle Square Solutions said the province cannot toss money at reaching a settlement with the teachers that is inconsistent with the pattern of earlier public sector contracts.

On the issue of class size, he argued that the “empirical evidence” does not support significant expenditures to reduce a classroom size by a few students.

He said there is room for negotiating additional resources on the issue of class composition, where the understanding of students with physical, behavioural and mental issues has changed considerably since 2002. Improved teacher training is one option for consideration.

The problem is that relations between the BCTF and the province have “soured” to the point that reaching an agreement on such issues is difficult, he said.

Communications consultant Bill Tieleman predicted that the dispute could linger for two to six weeks and that it’s clear that pressures must mount on both parties before a settlement is reached.

“I don’t see any grounds for this to be resolved quickly,” he said. “This is a fundamental dispute on both sides. It will set the stage for years to come.”

Jim Sinclair, the president of the B.C. Federation of Labour, pledged that organized labour will turn up the heat on the government in the coming days.

While a provincewide general strike is not currently on the table, it is not being dismissed.

“We’ll see what happens at the end of the week,” Sinclair said in an interview at a Labour Day rally at Swangard Stadium in Burnaby. “We’re meeting, as the leadership of the labour movement, Thursday morning and we’ll be talking about how we can make sure this gets resolved. It could be discussed, but right now we’re discussing how to put pressure on the government.”

He noted the last general strike “was in 2005 when the teachers were on strike.”

Tieleman said he does not believe that a general strike is an option this time. “The issues are specific to the teachers,” he said. “They have a lot of support from labour but I can’t see it leading to a broader dispute.”

Sinclair urged union members and citizens of all stripes to support the striking teachers. “This week we are telling parents and labour movement folks and everybody to head down to the picket lines because this week is critical. The premier has to get the message.”

The union movement is organizing rallies in Victoria, Prince George and Kelowna, with a major demonstration planned for Friday in Vancouver.

Sinclair’s message to the government is, ‘You made this mess in 2002. We’ve dragged it through the school system for 12 years, through two court cases and now it’s back at the bargaining table. And in 18 months you haven’t put one more penny on the table to solve it.”

Recent timeline of the dispute:

June 2013 - A two-year contract for B.C.’s teachers expires.

Sept. 2013 - Teachers start their bid in B.C. Supreme Court to have their contract provisions regarding class-size limits and staffing ratios restored to 2002 levels.

Jan. 2014 - Teachers win court case. Justice Susan Griffin finds the government twice passed unconstitutional legislation aimed at stripping teachers of bargaining rights. Griffin finds the province did not negotiate in good faith during 2012 bargaining, and even tried to provoke a strike.

Feb. 2014 - Province appeals decision, with Peter Fassbender saying it would cost government $1 billion. Government received temporary stay of ruling. Fassbender later emails teachers directly, attempting to explain the government’s side.

March 2014 - teachers vote 89 per cent in favour of a strike. Initial government offer was for seven per cent increase over six years, followed by raises tied to inflation for a total of ten years. Teachers wanted 13.5 per cent increase over three years.

May 2014 - Government meets teachers’ plan for rotating strikes with wage cuts and a partial lockout.

June 2014 - Teachers lower their wage demands to eight per cent over five years, government offer remains at seven per cent over six. Class size and composition continue to be sticky point in negotiations.

June 10, 2014 - The BCTF says its strike pay fund is running dry. Teachers nevertheless vote 86 per cent in favour of a full-scale strike.

June 17, 2014 - schools close on account of dispute.

June 20, 2014 - Both sides agree to mediation with help from Vince Ready, who initially declines the charge.

July 2, 2014 - Mediator and B.C. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Kelleher cannot bring the two sides together.

July 16, 2014 - Finance Minister Mike de Jong unveils budget surplus then says there is no plan by government to pass back-to-work legislation before start of school year.

July 31, 2014 - province announces $40 a day contingency plan for parents of young schoolchildren should the strike continue past Sept. 2.

Aug. 8, 2014 - the two sides come together for the first time since schools shut down in June. Both sides call for further negotiations over the next few weeks.

Aug. 27, 2014 - Fassbender calls for a two-week “stand down” from strike action once mediation begins.

Aug. 28, 2014 - Ready meets with Fassbender, Jim Iker, the president of the BCTF, and Peter Cameron, the chief negotiator of the BCPSEA.

Aug. 30, 2014 - Ready walks away from the table with both sides too far apart for mediation.

Sept. 2, 2014 - Scheduled start of the 2014/15 school year.

With a file from Matthew Robinson

lpynn@vancouversun.com

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