The road to the November election doesn’t just run through the Twin Cities metro area.

Candidates hoping for a statewide electoral victory also need to convince voters from Minnesota’s farms, small towns and midsized cities that they’re the right ones for the job.

The numbers prove it.

In four of the past five statewide primaries, Greater Minnesota voters were more likely to participate than residents of the seven-county Twin Cities metro. In three of those contests, the sheer number of outstate voters was greater than in the metro.

That dominance comes even as Greater Minnesota has fewer registered voters (1.4 million) than the Twin Cities (1.7 million), a Pioneer Press examination of voter turnout data found. Metro voters typically cast more ballots in November elections, but outstate residents continue to turnout in strong numbers.

“Folks in rural Minnesota are very engaged with what is going on in their communities,” said Bradley Peterson, executive director of the Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities. “They need to be listened to. Any candidate that doesn’t — does so at their own peril.”

PAST AS PROLOGUE

The contrasts can be stark. And they tend to upend the conventional wisdom that liberal urban and conservative rural voters pick the candidates who end up on the fall ballot.

Take 2010 and 2014, the last two times Minnesota picked a governor.

In both of those years, a greater percentage of Greater Minnesota registered voters participated in the primary than residents of the metro. However, metro voters did cast more ballots overall in 2010.

Still, in Dakota and Washington counties, fewer than one in five registered voters participated. In parts of rural Minnesota, like Cook or Lake of the Woods counties, it was closer to half of registered voters who cast ballots.

Sure, suburban counties like Dakota and Washington have a lot more people, but big turnout in less populous counties adds up.

They helped Gov. Mark Dayton (who had previously won a statewide race for U.S. Senate) secure a spot on the 2010 fall ballot over DFL-endorsed candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher (who represented Minneapolis in the state House). Dayton lost to Kelliher in the metro by nearly 20,000 votes, but a strong showing in Greater Minnesota swayed the race for him.

Strong support from parts of Greater Minnesota also helped Dayton win the general election in 2010 and 2014.

Where Gov. Mark Dayton won in the 2010 primary

Gov. Dayton did not get a majority of votes in the Twin Cities metro, but strong turnout in the rest of the state secured him the DFL nomination. Click on a county for more details.

UNDERSTATED BUT HISTORIC POWER

Greater Minnesota’s power to shape elections is not new.

David Schultz, a Hamline University political science professor, says rural Minnesota voters have been reliable primary participants for generations.

That could again have big implications for this year’s race for governor with both the Republican and Democratic-Farmer-Labor parties’ endorsed candidates having roots in the metro. Voters will narrow the field of candidates for the fall election Aug. 14.

Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, the GOP candidate, grew up in Detroit Lakes and now lives in Plymouth. Erin Murphy, the DFL candidate, represents St. Paul at the Legislature.

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Both face challengers from within their own party with arguably greater name recognition. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty is a familiar face statewide, as are DFLers Attorney General Lori Swanson, who won statewide races for her job, and Congressman Tim Walz, who represents a southern Minnesota district.

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New Brighton Mayor Valerie Johnson suspends bid for re-election Schultz contends that Minnesota’s process for selecting candidates is designed to consider these types of characteristics when narrowing the pool of candidates. Low-turnout caucuses set up endorsing conventions where the party faithful pick their favorite, but all that can go out the window in a competitive primary.

Political party insiders tend to favor more ideological candidates compared with typical voters, Schultz says, so big primary turnout can act as a counterbalance. On the other hand, something like an unusual flood of progressive metro voters could lead to a different outcome.

“Those voters are typically harder to turn out,” he said. “Larger turnout generally works to the advantage of the more centrist types of candidates.”

2014 primary turnout by county

Click on a county for more detail.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR 2018?

Republican and Democratic party leaders say their endorsed candidates are working hard to appeal to voters across the state, not just in isolated constituencies. They downplayed the impact of name recognition or where a candidate lives on a statewide primary.

Said Jennifer Carnahan, chair of the Republican Party, when asked if Pawlenty’s name recognition would hurt Johnson: “The primary electorate tends to be a more highly engaged super user. It’s a different type of voter.”

Ken Martin, the DFL Party chair, said it’s unfair to constrict candidates’ chances because of where they are from: “It’s a mistake for someone to say because they live in the metro, they don’t understand Greater Minnesota.”

Peterson, of the Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities, agrees that name recognition and geography are not necessarily electoral destiny. But he does think Twin Cities politicians need to go the extra step to win over rural voters.

“I’ve been impressed by the extent candidates have been out and about in Greater Minnesota,” Peterson said. “What rural voters are looking for is that those candidates are engaging with them.”

A BLUE, RED OR PURPLE WAVE?

Almost all political watchers are anticipating a big boost in turnout this year, both for the general election and the primaries. President Donald Trump is a polarizing figure who is likely to energize voters from both parties.

Schultz, the political science professor, thinks a historic trend might also be in play. Looking back more than two decades, he says midterm contests after controversial presidential elections tend to have large turnout.

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It happened in 1994, after President Bill Clinton was elected, and again in 2010, after President Barack Obama took office. In both instances, the party with less congressional power made big gains.

“The one thing that stuck out at me was these were all highly charged national elections,” Schultz said.

MOVE PRIMARY TO BOOST VOTING?

If early primary voting is any sign, a wave could be on its way.

Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon reported Thursday that nearly 30,000 people have already cast primary ballots — a 151 percent increase over 2016. A lot of those early votes came from Hennepin and St. Louis counties where there are hotly contested congressional races.

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New Brighton Mayor Valerie Johnson suspends bid for re-election But it could be only a blip on the radar. Minnesota tops the nation in voting in general elections, but primary voting here has been on the decline for decades.

In 2016, fewer than 10 percent of the state’s registered voters cast primary ballots. Experts blame the declining turnout, in part, on the state’s late August primary, and there’s a growing campaign to move it to June.

The drop in primary participation should concern Republicans and Democrats alike.

“Democracy doesn’t function unless there is robust participation,” Martin said.