Name: Nazem Kadri

Age: 24 years old

Height: 6’00

Weight: 188 lbs

Experience: 5th Pro Season

Cap Hit: $2,900,000

Stats: 69GP, 18G, 21A, 26PIM, -5

See below for all advanced stats formulas. It helps!

Corsi Relative: 12.5

– A Corsi relative score of 12.5 indicates that the Toronto Maple Leafs get 12.5 MORE shot attempts than their opponents when he is on the ice (60 minute measurement) as opposed to when he is off the ice.

– This number ranks Nazem Kadri first last among Maple Leafs centerman, by an exceedingly wide margin. The closest regular is Richard Panik and his quality of competition pales in comparison to Kadri’s (more on that later).

PDO: 1002

– The average PDO for an NHL player should hover somewhere around 1000 (or 100%).

– This metric is derived from the fact that the on-ice shooting percentage of your team, added to the sv% of the opposing goalie, should equal to 1.000 (.920 sv% + 0.08 sh%).

– Nazem Kadri is playing with a PDO that indicates he isn’t benefiting or being held back by ‘puck luck’ at this stage of his season and that his advanced analytics aren’t likely to vary a great deal from their current status.

– The on-ice shooting % for Kadri is 9.33%, which is very similar to his full season percentage from last year. During Kadri’s lockout shortened 2012-13 season he scored at a rate of 14.44%, an unsustainable even-strength number for most NHL regulars. This would seem to indicate that Kadri is likely going to be a perennial 20 goal scorer but his point totals will hinge on the quality of his linemates and their ability to finish scoring chances.

Relative Quality of Competition: 0.721

– Nazem Kadri has the highest quality of competition among all Toronto Maple Leafs centers and is only second to Corporal Komarov within the Leafs forward group.

– Kadri is regularly playing against the opposing teams top line on a nightly basis but is still able to maintain exceptional possession statistics despite not being paired with the Leafs top offensive wingers.

– This should further cement the point that Nazem Kadri is the real #1 center for the Maple Leafs…I’m not sure if that’s saying much.



On/Off Ice +/-: 0.56

On Ice +/- per 60 Minutes: -0.06

Off Ice +/- per 60 Minutes: -0.61

– The Toronto Maple Leafs even strength +/- improved by 0.56 goals per 60 minutes when Nazem Kadri was on the ice as opposed to when he was not.

– This result ranks Kadri first among Maple Leafs centers, a common theme that continues to tease itself out in this analysis. It is quickly becoming even more abundantly clear that Kadri is the present and future #1 center for this team…that is until they win the lottery and draft Connor McDavid, right?

Face-Off Zone Starts:

Offensive Zone Start: 46.2% of the time. (Finishes there 45.2%)

– Nazem Kadri’s zone usage indicates that Horachek isn’t deploying him in specific situations to impact the offense or defense.

– Some teams will start stronger defensive players in their own end and have offensive players start more prominently in the opposition’s end. The Leafs don’t appear to utilize this strategy as the majority of their forwards have close to an even split in their even strength zone starts.

– If you’re curious and would like to see a team that actually used zone starts to perfection, look at the way Alain Vigneault used Manny Malhotra in comparison to the Sedins when he was the coach of the Canucks.

Top Linemate: Daniel Winnik

– Daniel Winnik. Seriously.

– Nazem Kadri has played 42% of his even-strength shifts with Daniel Winnik as his top linemate. This should help to explain why Kadri’s assists-per-game is currently the lowest since he became an NHL regular.

– That isn’t to say that Winnik isn’t a solid NHL player, you just aren’t likely to maintain a PPG pace when your top linemate has never scored more than 11 goals in a season despite playing between 15-17 minutes per game. In the prior two seasons, Kadri played with Clarke Macarthur and Joffrey Lupul as his top linemates.

NEW: Relative Performance Analysis

– A new feature in the advanced stats series will be analyzing the performance of a player relative to his peers at his position. The chart below provides ice-time, goals, assists, possession and more, relative to the other NHL players.

– Kadri’s tableau presents an interesting view that we hadn’t seen by looking at his Corsi Rel in isolation. Kadri receives the ice-time of a #1B center and his offensive possession analytics mimic that of an elite forward. The wheels begin to fall off when we isolate his usage against per 60, which indicates that Kadri defends like a fourth line player.

– Given this result, it would be smart of the Leafs to utilize Kadri in more offensive zone starts until he is able to sort out his defensive responsibilities.



Conclusion:

– Nazem Kadri is solidifying himself as a top offensive possession player in the NHL and he is far and away the Maple Leafs best centerman from an advanced analytics perspective, with a positive relative corsi of 12.5.

– When Nazem Kadri is on the ice the Maple Leafs are +0.56 goals per 60 minutes better than they are when he is off the ice. This represents the greatest positive impact to the Maple Leafs +/- that any Maple Leafs regular forward has made this season.

– If Nazem Kadri is able to improve his defensive acumen there will be little doubt as to whether or not he is a legitimate #1 center in the league. If the Leafs are able to land one of the top centerman in the 2015 draft, a Kadri – McDavid/Eichel/Strome/Marner 1/2 punch (Kadri being the #2) would represent a very formidable core group for a rebuilding club.

FUTURE: Nazem Kadri is the Maple Leafs top offensive forward and should be considered as a part of the rebuild. With some improvement to his defensive game, Kadri would quickly solidify himself as a legitimate #1 on most NHL teams.

Stay tuned for the next installment of Maple Leafs Advanced Stats Analysis featuring Leafs forward Phil Kessel.

– Brandon Finley

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Thanks to Behind The Net for compiling the Advanced Stats.

Thank you to Own The Puck for the tableau visuals.

Legend:

Corsi Number = (Shots on Target For + Missed Shots For + Blocked Shots Against ) – (Shots on Target Against + Missed Shots Against + Blocked Shots For)

Corsi Relative = (Corsi Number of Player X) – (Corsi of Team with player X not on the ice)

On/Off Ice +/- = (On Ice +/- per 60 minutes) – (Off Ice +/- per 60 minutes)

Corsi Relative QoC = The weighted relative corsi of a player’s opposition