Net Rating: +10

Athleticism / Frame Overview: Nice straight-line athlete (nice transition player) with solid reactions, but not quick laterally and does not have much vertical pop in crowded areas. Flashes nice acceleration. Hip turns aren’t very good – a bit rigid, though also not bad for a wing. Solid strength for his age and plays pretty physical, but definitely room to improve in both the upper and lower body. Needs to improve balance.

Mentality Overview: Competitive and a really hard worker – from what I have been told, he is an incredibly hard worker – gets to practice before and stays late getting shots up, and also gets extra shots up after games if he has a bad shooting night. He holds himself to an incredibly high standard (and his dad apparently pushes him to get better and put in the work), which is good, but he apparently can get too down on himself if he has a bad game – needs to keep a more even demeanor. Does a nice job playing his role on both ends regardless of what it is – is comfortable playing a more lead role, but can also play a background role. On defense, he competes and does a nice job defending a variety of players (though he can be beaten off the bounce by quicker players and bullied in post by stronger ones).

Also, he comes from an athletic family. His father is a former professional basketball player in Israel, for Red Star, and the Yugoslavian National team in FIBA. His mother was a track athlete.

Offensive Role: 2-3rd playmaking option forward who can split time between both positions. Can run PnR as the ballhandler or as the big and beat smaller players in the post on the mismatch – some potential going forward spacing from 3, though he has to clean up his form and will likely not be a movement shooter (besides basic / non-heavy movement). I’m particularly intrigued with the idea of the inverted PnR being run with true shooters.

Defensive Role: Combo F who, if he gets stronger, will be physical enough to defend both at a solid level. Has nice awareness / rotations to protect the rim, but his lack of pop and poor measurements will limit his effectiveness here. Smart rotations on the perimeter as well. Will likely not be a high level defender, but he won’t be someone you have to hide – above average, solid defender.

Offense:

Synergy Profile: scoring : 52 scoring + assists : 60 (totals if percentile not available)

Jump Shots C&S Cut Around Basket Dribble J PnR Score PnR Pass Iso Post 27 21 82 70 2 53 70 93 79

Shot Chart in HC:

Not including post ups: Post ups:

Finishing: Good – very good finisher, and a high level cutter. Soft touch with either hand, can finish through contact. Does not have great pop on finishes with an open lane on a catch and drive or in crowded areas – only 3 of his 27 makes were dunks, though also does a nice job staying away from getting blocked (1 shot blocked in paint). 27 of his 31 made baskets around the rim in the halfcourt have been assisted (excluding putbacks / postups), but shows ability to grab and attack off the bounce from 3 and had a few burst finishes from a standstill that were very nice. On his catch and drives, he does a nice job staying low and not getting bumped off his spot. Doesn’t have that much craft when finishing besides using off hand and an outstretched hand, but has solid body control on finishes. He uses plenty of pump fakes around the crowded areas to get a better angle / defenders on feet to draw fouls (12 fouls drawn in paint in the HC on all attempts, 9 excluding putbacks and postups), but some of these are unnecessary and the hesitation probably doesn’t do as much as he thinks it does (relative to how often he goes to it, at least) . Most of finishes came off of cuts improvised when his defender turns his back on him (really nice job taking advantage of the defense here), by setting it up with a fake high, or designed cut on a cross-screen. At next level, length and vertical pop from opponents might hurt his finishing around the rim – will want to see him work on finishing through contact, different angled finishes, etc. Not someone who is overly physical in the paint, and doesn’t always finish strong around contesting bigs.

Post Up: Efficient post-up player, though he is not particularly advanced with footwork or moves – likes overpowering smaller players, drop steps, and flashed a spin and turnaround J a few times. Even though it’s not something he’ll likely use very often in the NBA, it’s still a good skill to have in the toolbox – especially when he takes advantage of smaller players on switches / mismatches. Does a nice job sealing defender either fully behind or in front, opening up easy entry passes / over the top passes. Physical in the post and does a good job not being dislodged from where he is or wants to go – like his physicality on baseline drop steps. Can go over either shoulder against smaller players and has flashed a turnaround J. He really tries to overpower smaller players on his way to the rim instead of settling for turnaround Js / weaker shots. Usually goes back to basket – not so much facing up, though I can see him developing a mid-post faceup game. Nice job kicking it back and trying to get better position when there’s nothing there. Nice job passing out of post.

Shooting: Not a good shooter right now / has never been a good one with Maccabi Tel Aviv or with FIBA Israel. 29th percentile overall, 26/94 on all jumpers, 26th percentile on C&S (22/76), and 3rd percentile on off dribble jumpers (1/11, though 7 of them were bailouts) this year…28th percentile last year overall, 13th on C&S last year. He’s shooting 34.4% from three so far this year, but the sample size is small – 21/61. FT indicators have not been good either, 53.5% this year, 51.2% last year. However, the numbers are a bit better in FIBA for 3 – for his career, he’s at 36.1% on 155 attempts…but FT% is at 57.2% on 138 attempts (28.6% from 3 and 60% from the FT line during U20s last summer. Basically, the numbers are, at best, all over the place and at worst, not pointing in a very good direction. However, two things do point in his favor – he has nice form and I have been told he is an insanely hard worker, oftentimes staying well after practices (and games) to work on his shot. On his form: upper body looks good on film, with elbow not leaking out and usually a smooth with no hitch or unneeded movements. However, on the release, he is prone to two bad things happening (which, in my opinion, at least partially lead to the poor percentages) : (1) release isn’t up and down, as his body crunches a little (see pictures below), making the release more out instead of up and out and (2) he is prone to turning his lower body / flaring his feet on the release. Given the upper body shooting motion, touch, and his streakiness from the outside now, I think it’s fair to project Deni hitting in the mid 30s from 3 in time, if he is able to fix the lower body a bit. One last point on his shooting numbers, he’s shooting 36% (18/50) on 3s outside of the final 5 seconds of the shot clock and 37% (16/43) on C&S on 3s outside of final 5 seconds of shot clock à through 1/26/20.

Shot Versatility: Not much versatility – do not think he will provide much horizontal gravity or off the bounce Js. He’ll likely be relegated to basic movement shooting (ie, moving to the open spot on perimeter for C&S) and maybe some pindowns and DHOs, but no heavy movement. Though his release is compact, does a nice job staying ready to C&S (and getting set quickly if shooting off a little motion), and he gets it off pretty quickly, he’s not very fast off screens…which is a limiter here. In terms of off the bounce Js, there is some potential here, but it’s not something he’ll go to often – I do not project him as someone who can downhill and pull up very often, except maybe off a PnR. He’s shown some flashes shooting off the bounce on mismatches against bigs (hit a couple stepbacks) and had good rhythm shooting off L or R handed dribble, but the consistency (or results) is not there and given how streaky he is now on C&S attempts, it’s unlikely to project him as much of an off the bounce shooter. The “body crunch” comes a bit more often on off the bounce Js (see pictures below).

Shot IQ: Good shot IQ, does a nice job playing to his strengths and keeping his game simple without forcing many looks – 47% of his attempts have been in / around the paint (including postups, where he’s effective and does a nice job keeping his game simple and taking advantage in smaller mismatches). 53% of his attempts have been jumpers, which given the percentages doesn’t look very smart, but he’s streaky from the outside, not bad (over the last 25 games – 11/10 through 1/23 – a he’s 17/46 from 3)…and he has to keep the defense honest / spaced for the rest of the team, so he’s encouraged (and supposed to) take the jumpers. Taking it one step further, the jumpers he does take are almost all C&S (~80% of them), so he’s simplifying the jumpers he’s taking à this is good.

Handle: Solid handle, though it’s pretty basic – crosses, through legs, hesitations, etc. Can piece together a cross into a through the legs attack (jumper or drive) – on drives out of this, he has pretty good burst, but it’s pretty much a straight-line attack, with little to no adjustment on the fly. Does a nice job keeping the ball pretty low and in control on drives (and also does a nice job keeping his body low on drives as he’s making his move to help pick up speed and not get bumped off his spot, though he gets lower on R handed drives than he does on L handed drives) – R hand dominant, does not feel comfortable handling in tight spaces with L so he often picks up his dribble. However, his crossover (and when he’s dancing a bit with the ball) can get a bit high at times. More of a straight line driver attacker off the bounce – not very shifty / someone who can piece together multiple dribble moves. Does not have great speed when crowded, but does a nice job using his body to shield and bump the defender a bit and has an underrated first step from the standstill. Handling turnovers are rare.

Passing: Good+ passer (very good for F), though does not make elite reads in the halfcourt. Loves kicking the ball up in transition, and can make some really nice full court passes (including on the move). Nice drive and kick and drop-off passer. PnR sample size is small, but he’s been very effective as a passer both in FIBA and with Maccabi. Does a nice job keeping the defender on his hip and hitting the roll with a pocket pass after getting the defender to commit – this is something that can probably be used going forward, and using him as a creator in the PnP with a guard is something that could be exploited given his ability to get into the paint out of the PnR and put pressure on the ball-screen defender. Has the ability to make live action passes out of the PnR with his right hand. Good timing on passes – nice job using fakes to get a better angled to pass or open up another pass – and throws a catchable ball. Can hit all 3 levels out of the PnR (roll, spot ups, and baseline cuts), but would like to see him keep his eyes a bit more peeled driving into the paint off the screen because he can miss open shooters. Low turnovers numbers out of PnR – makes the smart pass. Pretty nice job setting up the screen in the PnR, more comfortable using screen than rejecting. Also if blitzed/pressured, he gets rid of the ball pretty quickly (has use of live action pass here) but does not look comfortable taking the pressure. Nice job using height to help see the court. Though he generally does make the right decision passing, he is still prone to forcing a pass here and there. Not turnover prone though with Maccabi Tel Aviv or FIBA Israel (in FIBA, relative to usage – same with his time in Maccabi Tel Aviv junior, where he had ~37% usage, but a ~15.5% turnover rate). Turnovers from passing tend to come from forcing passes.

Assist Chart:

Maccabi: Israel FIBA:

Defense:

Synergy Profile (I know there is a lot of noise here, but this is just added information): 43

Spot Up PnR Score Around Basket Post Up Dribble J C&S Iso Off Screen 35 20 31 88 36 50 58 40

Defensive Shot Chart (A lot of noise, but interesting. Paint = as primary and secondary defender.)

HC Defense, including post ups

Awareness / Team Defense: High level team defender – does a really nice job rotating to the paint to protect the rim. Though his athletic traits and length limit him here, his BBIQ shines and makes up for those limitations…but he’ll really have to work on his timing (really even deter the shot) and improve his vertical pop (especially from stand still) to be a ++ rim protector at the next level…basically, his physical and athletic limitations will probably limit his rim protection projection a good amount, as it has already done that to him in Israel / Euroleague. Nice job rotating on the perimeter to help when needed – if there is a flare, he does a nice job covering, moving to the uncovered man, etc.

Rim Protection: As mentioned above, he does a nice job rotating to protect the rim from the weak side – his IQ really shines. Generally does a really nice job beating the ball to the spot and contesting, but is prone to being late – he either sees it half a second late and can’t recover quickly enough (and length / lack of pop doesn’t allow him to mask those mistakes) or sees it and just doesn’t rotate. Though he is a solid rim protector overseas, I’m not sure how it will translate. However, already in Euroleague and in the Israeli league, his rim protection has had limitations – even though he still rotates really well, his lack of pop and wingspan limits his effectiveness here, as players are already able to finish over him. I think the solid flashes of pop he has won’t be enough to get over the bigger and better athletes he’ll be contesting in the paint. Does a nice job avoiding fouls in the paint by going straight up and/or doing a solid job contorting his body to avoid contact. Has solid strength for age, but needs to continue to get stronger as he can still get dislodged in air on attempts at the rim. Basically, instead of being the good rim protector he is now, I am expecting a dip in effectiveness. Does not have a quick second jump, so rim protection on putbacks is limited because of that + lack of vertical pop + lack of length.

PnR Defense: Maccabi Tel Aviv tends to switch the vast majority of the times when Deni is defending the POA in the PnR because he has solid size / enough size to battle with bigs in a pinch. When they don’t switch, he does a decent job getting over, though he can’t get skinny enough to get over without a slight bump and is often a step too high / pushed high on the recovery. He generally does a nice job fighting through the screen and making an effort getting back in the play – probably should have drawn a few offensive fouls / illegal screen calls. Lack of length will make it difficult to contest going under screens, meaning there might be a bit more pressure on the big to help on the screen…unless Deni can improve his POA defense and shows better ability getting over the screen. He gets a bit jumpy at the POA with jab steps – needs to work on this and stay down on these.

Shot Contests / Closeouts: On the whole, he does a nice job trying to get out to shooters…but has the occasional slow closeout when the shooter is too far away. Can sometimes close out too hot or with his hips open instead of neutral, opening up a driving lane or a pull up jumper – would like to see him be a bit more controlled here. Solid job though taking a good angle to help get back in the play. Does a nice job playing in team defense (playing the pin, tagging the role, stunting, 2-9ing, etc) and trying to get back to the shooter – issue here arises when sometimes he’s too far in help, and then he’s forced to scramble and ends up giving up open looks (that helps explain the high percentages on C&S 3s below). Does a nice job making multiple effort closeouts when he has to – ball gets swung to open perimeter player, but nobody can cover the corner, so he goes there as well. His good straight-line speed helps him here, though I’d still like to see him really work on exploding off that back foot to help propel him – it’d give him an extra gear.

Opponent C&S 3s

Off Ball Defense: As with his PnR defense at the POA, he does not do a good job getting skinny through the screen or here dipping his shoulder to get through. However, there are some flashes here of doing a nice job getting through screens – getting through staggered screens is difficult for him, though. The angles he takes when trying to get around screens aren’t great – does not read where the ball currently is, where it is going / where his man is going, etc. When he’s hit, attempts to rectify this when he can’t get to his man in time by communicating with his teammates to help on his man and get out to the shooter. Prone to helping too much off ball / sink too far into the paint and is forced to scramble to closeouts. Can be beaten backdoor / off sudden movements because he’s ball watching a bit and/or sitting on his heels, though it’s not that common. Regardless, should do a better job seeing the ball and the action and being ready to move / react.

Man (ISO) Defense: Not a very good lateral athlete and his hip turns are not very good…reaction time isn’t bad, but it’s not enough to make up for the lack of quickness / hips. When he’s already positioned to slide and the ballhandler starts driving that way (ie, hips opened up right, Deni sliding with him in that direction), he does a pretty solid moving with the ballhandler, though when he’s actually sliding he doesn’t move that well. The good movement laterally is more of a half slide, with crossing legs… which he is prone to do, which then makes him susceptible to fouling downhill and having issues stopping and going / stopping on a dime, which he does when moving. He has solid closing speed from behind, but that’s not often enough to make up for the slower hip turns and average athleticism – the solid closing speed is at least partially due to taking a good angle, which definitely helps him. Not really able to stay with quick dribble moves on the perimeter – a hard cross can shake him because his first step is usually back on the change of direction instead of having a neutral stance, which I think he does to make it easier to recover on drives…but this gives up open shots from outside. Actually does a pretty solid job backpeddling on drives. Not really someone who can mirror the ballhandler.

Footwork: Needs to work on not crossing, change of direction, stopping on back foot and using that to help turn / get back to the shooter – he is prone to stopping short on his top foot, then goes to back foot (or bringing his back foot to the front), and then turning…which is bad. He has to simplify his footwork and clean it up a lot, because he does show flashes of proper footwork. Generally speaking, he does not do a good job navigating / avoiding screens at the POA or off ball – goes a bit too high, is not able to get skinny / cut the space between the screener and the ballhandler, etc. and ends up being hit. Needs to improve balance and strengthen his legs – seems like when he’s moving too hard one way, it’s difficult for him to stop, plant, and go back the opposite direction à he wobbles a bit while trying to catch himself.

Deni Avdija's role w/Maccabi Tel Aviv is mostly off ball (cuts, C&S, etc), but between there & Israel U20, he's shown very impressive PnR flashes – smart passes, can hit all 3 levels

– live action passes w/R hand

– nice job keeping D on hip

– awesome use of fakes

– nice touch pic.twitter.com/nPSGAH6Ajz — Spencer (@SKPearlman) January 26, 2020

Deni Avdija is such a smart / damn good cutter: pic.twitter.com/19xrW1QuJM — Spencer (@SKPearlman) January 26, 2020

Written by Spencer Pearlman, https://twitter.com/SKPearlman, link to other pieces and in-depth reports: https://www.thestepien.com/author/spencerpearlman/