250 AXNT20 KNHC 192320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 26.6N 92.4W at 19/2100 UTC or 280 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 23 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. An outer band of scattered moderate convection is also noted over the north central Gulf. A slow WNW motion is expected to begin later this evening toward the Texas coast, and continue through late Monday. Slow strengthening is forecast through late Monday to near hurricane strength. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Major Hurricane Teddy is centered near 26.7N 60.2W at 19/2100 UTC or 410 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are currently 55 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 210 nm of the center. Teddy is expected to continue moving NW through tonight. A turn toward the north or north- northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Teddy will pass just east of the island early Monday. Some slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week. Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml or more details. Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 14.0N 39.2W at 19/2100 UTC or 890 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 14 ft. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are within 210 nm in the N quadrant. Wilfred will continue moving toward the west- northwest for the next few days. Little change in intensity is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Monday. Wilfred is expected to become a remnant low by Monday night and dissipate by Mon night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is centered southwest of the Azores near 36N30N with a central pressure of 1008 mb. The cyclone is moving southward a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward for the next day or so and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. There is a moderate chance the cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W to 14N25W. No significant convection is observed near the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico. The stationary front extends from southwest Florida near Fort Myers across the southeast Gulf to 27N86W. No significant convection is associated with this front. A reinforcing front is over north Florida along 29N and extends across the Florida Big Bend area of the northeast Gulf to near Apalachicola Florida. No convection is noted near this boundary. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated near gale force NW winds funneling along coast of Veracruz in the southwest Gulf, squeezed between Beta to the north and the high coastal terrain. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, in addition to the impacts of Beta in the northwest Gulf, fresh to strong NE winds will follow the reinforcing front moving southward over the eastern Gulf through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from near Bonaire to the Leeward Islands. A few showers are noted east of this trough over the eastern Caribbean, with fairly dry conditions elsewhere. Large, long period northerly swell originating with Hurricane Teddy in the Atlantic is penetrating into the Atlantic passages from the Mona Passage through the Leeward Islands, but is also active is just outside of the Windward Island passages. The subtropical ridge that is normally north of the region has been displaced by the tropical cyclone activity, leaving relatively modest E to SE winds and slight seas elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the Atlantic swell will continue to impact the passages from the Leeward Islands to the Mona Passage through Mon, but should gradually ease in the Windward Island Passages. This may be short lived as a new round of large, long-period northerly swell is expected by mid week. This northerly swell will impact much of the eastern Caribbean by mid week. Mariners are advised to check local marine forecasts for more information. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette. In the western Atlantic off the coast of northeast Florida, a mostly stationary front reaches from 32N70W to 1011 mb low pressure near 29N76W to south Florida near West Palm Beach. A reinforcing front is analyzed form 32N73W to 29N81W. No significant convection is noted along these boundaries. An earlier scatterometer pass along with region buoy observations indicated strong NE winds are following the reinforcing front. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere west of 65W. Farther east outside of tropical cyclones, generally moderate to fresh trade winds persist. 8 to 10 ft seas primarily in mixed swell cover much of the open northern Atlantic south of 32N due to the continuous tropical cyclone active over the past several days, but mostly from Hurricane Teddy. Large seas to 12 ft follow the reinforcing front off northeast Florida as well. Teddy will move north of the area, and Wilfred will gradually dissipate west of 50W through the early part of the week. The reinforcing front will move southeast across the Florida Peninsula and the western Atlantic while weakening, then stall early next week from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Behind the front, near gale force winds NE are anticipated across a broad area of Atlantic waters N of 25N through Mon, bringing a new round of large, long-period northerly swell to the waters west of 50W through mid week. $$ Christensen