Larrys Mabiala has proved himself a quality centerback, especially in the air, and led the team in minutes played in 2018. He will anchor the defense again in 2019.

Newcomer Claude Dielna will hope to fill the shoes of Ridgewell as the left central defender. One cause for concern is that Dielna is a different type of player than Ridgewell, who led the Timbers in passing vertical (average distance towards the opponent’s goal of completed passes) during his time there, averaging 11.6 yards. In fact, over the last four seasons, no field player in MLS averaged more vertical distance on his completed passes. Even more impressive is that Ridgewell actually completed his passes at a significantly higher rate than expected (79.0% completed, 73.8% expected). In other words, Ridgewell’s completed passes went more towards the opponent’s goal than any other player’s, and he completed them 5.2% more often than the average player could have expected. Conversely, Dielna’s average pass only goes 7.3 yards towards the opponent’s goalline, and he completes them 73.7% of the time, barely better than the expected rate of 72.5%.

That’s a bunch of complicated numbers, but it boils down to this: the loss of Ridgewell could mean a bit of bite is taken out of Portland’s rapid counter-attacks, as the ball won’t be flowing as quickly forward from the back.

Julio Cascante has started next to Mabiala for most of the preseason, but has been very inconsistent. Cascante has a different style compared to the rest of the Portland centerbacks because of his comfort with the ball at his feet, but he’s sometimes too comfortable and it leads to some confounding unforced errors. And he’s no Ridgewell either - his average pass only goes 5.5 yards towards the opponent’s goal.

I should note here that the Ceremonial Tchillo Tschuma Award for Reading Too Much into the Preseason goes to the shaky status of the defense. The team has attempted to play a higher than usual defensive line in their exhibition matches (similar to the one that failed at the start the 2018 season), and it hasn’t yet worked. There’s still time to work things out, but the left side of the defense has looked especially vulnerable. If there’s any concern for Timbers fans, the left centerback position vacated by Ridgewell is the leading contender. Unless the defensive line starts clicking, Savarese may be forced to abandon his attempts to implement a high line once again.

Midfield

This is the Diegos’ team. Valeri and Chara will still be the cornerstones of the squad. Valeri is the carrot and Chara is the stick, but they’re equally important. How important? The Timbers have famously not won a game the last 29 times that Diego Chara didn’t play. While 2018 felt to many like a down year for Valeri, he still somehow set a career high of 22.2 in xG+xA, topping even his 2017 MVP season. But age is becoming an issue, with both players about to turn 33. The front office stills thinks they’ll be at the top of their games in 2019 so is doing their best to reload before their talents begin to decline. One thing is for sure; as go the Diegos, so go the Timbers.

David Guzman struggled a bit last year, but he’ll be the other central anchor next to Chara. Along with centerback, central midfield is the greatest depth concern. Cristian Paredes and Bill Tuiloma will probably be the CDM backups, and T2 signing Renzo Zambrano will hope to get some Open Cup minutes. When Guzman or Chara miss time due to injury or national team callups (Guzman is a shoe-in for Costa Rica’s Gold Cup squad), this could be a place of vulnerability.

Sebastian Blanco came into his own in his second MLS season, and his Expected Goal Chain of 33.9 was tops on the team. Opposite Blanco will likely be Andy Polo, who was brought in last year to fill the hole left by Darlington Nagbe. Polo is speedy, and willing to work hard defensively, but does not offer the offensive threat Nagbe did. Polo’s spot is hardly assured though, as Dairon Asprilla has gotten starts in preseason after a tumultuous 2018 that saw him first used as a striker, then out of the 18, before ending the season as arguably the team’s playoffs MVP. While both Polo and Asprilla have similar skillsets – they’re fast and willing to take on defenders - Asprilla is a bigger offensive threat than Polo while offering nothing defensively. Depending on the game state, I imagine we will frequently see these players substituting for one another.

Depth on the wings will mostly come from Andrés Flores, who blossomed as the season progressed in 2018, but won’t be challenging for a starting spot. The team also has high hopes for T2 signing Marvin Loría, who made his international debut for Costa Rica against the USMNT in January.

Forwards

Jeremy Ebobisse earned his starting job as the team made a run to MLS cup. He will probably never score more than 12 goals in a season, but still has the potential to be one of the better strikers in MLS. His holdup play and intelligence on the ball are already among the league’s elite. He’s a physical striker who is more than content to lay the ball of to his teammates to finish. Still, he’s only 22 and still hasn’t played all that much - he earned more postseason minutes than regular season minutes last season. He doesn’t fit the mold of the sterotypical goal scorer that teams typically look for up top, but that doesn’t mean he can’t succeed there.

The enigmatic Lucas Melano will likely begin the season as the backup striker. Melano always seems to find himself in the right place at the right time, then fall over. He’s not weighed down by the expectations that were placed on him upon his initial arrival in Portland, which has allowed him to be a perfectly fine backup. Still, his ideal place is probably as a winger rather than striker. It’s notable that beyond homegrown Foster Langsdorf, who doesn’t look to be in Savarese’s rotation, there isn’t a true goal-scoring striker on the team.

While rumors about an attacking designated player signing have abounded, the Timbers appear to have missed out on their top few choices. GM Gavin Wilkinson still seems determined to sign a DP striker, though he has repeatedly said that the team is committed to the continued development of Ebobisse. It may be the summer before the team is able to sign the type of player they’re seeking.