QUEBEC CITY—If she had to do it all over again, Parti Québécois Leader Pauline Marois wouldn’t have spent a full week of the 2014 election campaign talking about sovereignty.

That early campaign misstep by one of Quebec’s most experienced politicians coincided with her party’s drastic slide in support. With just one day left before polls open, the PQ has been incapable of mounting a recovery.

“Probably I shouldn’t have answered the questions on sovereignty, considering the issue is a choice of government — a solid government — and that’s what I’m offering,” Marois said at a news conference in Drummondville, Que., on Saturday.

Musings about a future Quebec separate from Canada but with open borders and a common currency likely set the sovereigntist party’s cause back at least four years, according to two opinion polls released Saturday.

Those polls show Philippe Couillard’s Liberal party rolling to victory in Monday’s voting.

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It is no surprise to hear that Couillard concurs with Marois’ campaign analysis, at least in part. The Liberal leader said a striking thing he has noticed during the five-week campaign is a new confidence and openness among younger Quebecers, who were alienated both by the PQ’s sovereignty pitch and the proposed values charter, which proposes to ban government employees from wearing religious garb at work.

Referendum talk dominated the first half of the election while Marois tried to rally supporters back to her side with talk of the charter.

“It’s the whole package,” Couillard told reporters at a campaign stop in Victoriaville, Que. “Young people — my kids, the 20- to 35-year-old group — are open to the world. They don’t fear anyone. They feel very strong, very confident in the future. They want to live with other people. They are proud of being Quebecers and speaking French, but they see no issue at all in being surrounded by other people.”

The Liberal leader said it is a “historical change” that illustrates why the identity themes championed by Marois may have ultimately killed the PQ’s bid for re-election.

“(The youth) don’t have the same perspective that we had in my generation,” Couillard said.

Saturday’s two new polls — from Leger Marketing and Angus Reid — show the Liberal party on the cusp of winning a majority government, with between 38 and 39 per cent support compared to between 27 and 29 per cent for the PQ.

As the race enters its final day of campaigning, the surveys indicate the fiscally conservative Coalition Avenir Québec may be the biggest threat to Marois’s party with between 23 and 25 per cent support: figures that indicate a late campaign burst of voter enthusiasm.

“Listen, it’s not over yet. Everything is possible on Monday,” Marois said. “I will work with our supporters, who are very motivated to bring out the vote. I have confidence in Quebecers. I’ll use all the time I have left.”

On Sunday, she plans to campaign in two Quebec City ridings held by the Liberals before returning to her own riding in the Charlevoix region, north of the provincial capital. But even on friendly turf the PQ leader won’t be able to relax — she faces stiff competition from the Liberal party.

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Local riding forecasts indicate there are more than a dozen seats where the Liberals and PQ are head to head. There are another 10 ridings where the Liberals, PQ and the CAQ are in three-way battles. CAQ victories could mean the different between the party continuing or disappearing. PQ victories could prevent the party’s worst score since its creation in 1970. Liberal victories could mean the difference between a minority government and a four-year majority.

“We can say, theoretically, that people shouldn’t divide the vote. But I would remind people of the experience in 2012, where those who voted for the CAQ woke up the next morning with a PQ government,” said Couillard, while campaigning along the south shore of the St. Lawrence River between Montreal and Quebec City.

“Everyone has to get out and vote Monday. It’s crucial. It’s an important election, a tight election. It’s a major election for the future of Quebec.”

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