Budget Battle

A statue of George Washington stands in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol. A new poll finds U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, R-Cascade Township, with a lead over challenger Brian Ellis.

(AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

Grand Rapids businessman Brian Ellis and U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, R-Cascade Township

GRAND RAPIDS, MI — U.S. Rep. Justin Amash holds a wide lead over challenger Brian Ellis in a recent poll, providing a glimpse into the Third District race two months before August primary.

A poll from Lansing-based Practical Political Consulting shows Amash, R-Cascade Township, with 42 percent of potential voters support and Ellis with 23 percent — almost a two to one lead. It also found 35 percent of voters remain undecided.

The poll was conducted from May 27-29 and commissioned by the Michigan Information and Research Service, or MIRS. An automated telephone system dialed 6,000 likely Republican primary voters across the district, leading 472 to respond. The margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.

At a glance, the libertarian-leaning Amash trumps his opponent by a large margin, but a local political expert explains there's more behind the numbers in this particular race.

Donald Zinman, an associate professor of political science at Grand Valley State University, said primary races are difficult to accurately poll because it's hard to assess voter turnout. Historically, primaries only bring out the most dedicated of citizens or impassioned supporters.

That's where Amash might have the upper hand, Zinman said.

"I'm not saying take (this poll) with a grain of salt — a 19-point lead is significant," Zinman said. "If he had a 20-point lead the weekend before the election, it'd be all over.

"Ellis is not a fringe candidate. He's got the ability to close that margin."

There are 63 days left until the Aug. 5 primary, and both candidates already have pulled the advertising stops on television and raising donor dollars. Regional media has taken notice, too, with the Detroit Free Press likening the race to Amash versus Ellis and the West Michigan business community.

Related: Prominent West Michigan political donors jump from Justin Amash to Brian Ellis in campaign letter

MIRS' poll indicated Ellis leads Amash among voters who have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party, 38 to 26 percent, with 37 percent undecided.

Amash is at 64 percent and Ellis at 19 percent among Tea Party supporters. Among impartial voters, Amash leads Ellis with 42 to 19 percent. The poll also found Amash is "winning heavily" outside of Kent County. The district stretches over Ionia, Barry, Calhoun and Montcalm counties.

FreedomWorks, a conservative advocacy group who endorsed and has supported Amash, released the results of its own commissioned poll on Thursday, May 29. It found Amash up with 53 percent to 23 percent on Ellis.

The poll was conducted by "the polling company, inc.," surveying 400 likely Republican voters in the district from May 16-18. Live callers conducted the poll, which had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

Andrew Krietz covers breaking, politics and transportation news for MLive | The Grand Rapids Press. Email him at akrietz@mlive.com or follow him on Twitter.