



Democrats currently hold 55 seats in the senate, meaning Republicans would need a gain of 6 to win the chamber. We hold 21 of the 35 seats up for election, but as 2012 shows that doesn't necessarily doom us to losing the senate. Overall we're in good shape to hold the chamber if current and expected conditions hold. Let's look the non-Safe races.

Likely D

Iowa - Veteran Iowa senator Tom Harkin (D) is retiring and 1st district congressman Bruce Braley (D) is running to replace him. Republicans couldn't land their strongest candidate, Tom Latham (R) and might end up with far right crazy Steve King (R). Should King run, this race becomes Safe D, but for now, Braley's strength as a candidate, the state's slight Democratic lean, and Republicans' lack of a top tier candidate make this race a likely hold.

Michigan - Michigan is another state with a veteran Democratic incumbent, Carl Levin retiring. Michigan though is a fairly Democratic state in federal elections and we have a very strong candidate in 14th district Rep. Gary Peters. Republicans are unlikely to land a particularly strong candidate and don't have anyone who could be the first Republican to win here in 20 years, barring a repeat of the 2010 wave.

Minnesota - Al Franken (D) won by just 312 votes in 2008, but has since seen his popularity build to the point where his approvals are consistently +10 or more. Republicans are unlikely to land their best potential candidate, 3rd district Rep. Erik Paulsen and are most likely going to end up with a little known state legislator. With the Minnesota GOP's disastrous finances, the state's natural Democratic lean, and Franken's popularity, this should be a relatively easy hold.

Lean D

Montana - Until long time senator Max Baucus (D) announced his retirement last week, I had pegged this one as a loss, but luckily it appears that super popular former governor Brian Schweitzer will run for the Democrats. Republicans have a surprisingly week bench here and are unlikely to land their strongest candidate, Mark Racicot. The state has only elected a Republican senator 4 times, but make no mistake it is still fairly red federally. Hopefully Schweitzer will scare off stronger opponents and the GOP will be left with an unknown state legislator rather than at large Rep. Steve Daines or Attorney General Tim Fox, both first elected in 2012, but even over those two Schweitzer would still be favored if polling is to be believed.

North Carolina - Kay Hagan looks to be in a very strong position for a mainstream Democrat in a right leaning swing state. She posts decent approval ratings with independents and Republicans for a Dem and has posted decent fundraising numbers. Furthermore, Republicans have absolutely no top tier candidate willing to run against her and might end up with the toxic state house Speaker Thom Tillis. Should Tillis, or less likely senate president pro tem Phil Berger end up as the nominee, this race moves to Likely D as the state legislature is utterly despised and only getting more so. Republicans' best hope is to recruit state labor commissioner Cherie Berry, who has so far made no noise about entering the race.

Likely R

Georgia - Two term senator Saxby Chambliss (R) is retiring and as would be expected in a red state, Georgia is seeing a whole horde of Republicans express interest, mainly US Reps. Jack Kingston, Tom Price, Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, and former state Secretary of State Karen Handel. For Democrats, our candidate recruitment starts with 12th district Rep. John Barrow, but after that moves on to either state legislators or former office holders. Our only hope here is if Republicans nominate nutjob Paul Broun, or less likely Phil Gingrey, while Kingston, Price, and Handel are probably unbeatable. This state has the potential to turn into another Missouri 2012, but with primary runoffs I just don't see how Broun is the nominee, especially given his pathetic fundraising quarter.

Lean R

Kentucky - Public enemy #1 in the senate, Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell is quite unpopular in his home state. However he has more money than god and has promised to spend over $25 million in a state that will cast roughly 1.4 to 1.5 million votes. McConnell also threatens to go nuclear on any eventual nominee and is not afraid to play dirty. Unfortunately, Kentucky is fairly open to Republicans at the federal level, but absolutely loves state Democrats with the prime difference coming down to coal. Democrats look set to recruit state Secretary of State and rising star Alison Lundergan Grimes, daughter of big time Kentucky donor/fundraisier Jerry Lundergan. Should Grimes run, this race will instantly become a top target for national Dems as our best and only realistic pick up opportunity, but McConnell and his millions will be tough to beat as Harry Reid demonstrated in 2010.

South Dakota - Incumbent Tim Johnson (D) is retiring after his popularity has fallen and he had a stroke a few years back. Republicans recruited a strong candidate in former governor Mike Rounds, however Rounds is no favorite among conservatives and stands a significant risk of losing to a more conservative primary challenger, especially given his pathetic Q1 fundraising. Democrats only hope is former at large Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin who is almost as popular as Rounds and would make the race instantly competitive against anyone who might beat him in the primary. We'll know in a few weeks/months whether or not she runs, but in the event she does not Democrats would probably nominate Johnson's son Brendan who is a US Attorney. At Lean R, this is one of only two races I'm prepared to chalk up as a Republican flip.

West Virginia - The other race is West Virginia where long time Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller is retiring and Republicans landed their best possible candidate, popular 2nd district Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. West Virginia has the longest streak in the nation of electing Democratic senators dating back to 1956, but the state is increasingly turning to the right presidentially as the national platform moves away from coal and natural gas is killing the industry. It truly remains to be seen whether or not this trend is moving downballot and at what pace as Democrats still dominate in state and local elections, particularly in coal heavy counties due to their union presence. If Democrats nominate someone who is tight with the coal industry such as attorney Nick Preservati, we may just win this, or if we land a popular statewide office holder such as state Secretary of State Natalie Tennant. However, more than any other key state there has been a total lack of credible polling in West Virginia so we really don't know just how popular Capito remains or how she'd do against Tennant. Still, past polling shows Capito quite popular and she was actually edging Rockefeller, so for now I'm pegging this as Lean R.

Tossup

Alaska - Most Valuable Democratic senator Mark Begich is up for reelection in conservative Alaska. Begich is MVP because he is the most liberal relative to his constituency and has nonetheless remained popular. Republicans won't land their strongest candidate, governor Sean Parnell, but look likely to get his Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell. Alaska is a dirt cheap state to compete in, so expect millions to be dumped here as the right tries to defeat Begich, but if the scant recent polling is to be believe he's actually in pretty decent shape. Still, Jon Tester was in a similar position and only won narrowly and given how Republican Alaska is I'm not prepared to move this race to Lean D just yet. On the off chance that 2010 nominee and loser Joe Miller wins the nomination, this one becomes a Begich landslide.

Arkansas - Unlike West Virginia, Arkansas is a conservadem state that has been zooming to the Republicans in recent elections. We went from holding all statewide offices, 3/4ths of the House seats, and 75% supermajorities in the legislature to likely holding none of those except maybe Pryor's seat in 2015. Mark Pryor though is the son of uber popular former senator and governor David Pryor and has been positioning himself to survive a tough reelection. Republicans haven't yet landed a candidate, but it is highly unlikely they don't get someone who is at least decently strong, such as 3rd or 4th district Reps. Steve Womack and Tom Cotton. Cotton in particular raised half a million in Q1 despite having a safe district and to me that suggests he will run. However he has never had to run a competitive campaign against a Democrat before, so it remains to be seen just how good a candidate he would be. This race though is about the purest tossup there is and has only seen one poll thus far.

Louisiana - Democratic senator Mary Landrieu remains quite popular but this is a very conservative state and Republicans landed a top tier challenger in 6th district Rep. Bill Cassidy. The state operates under a weird jungle primary system where everyone runs in round one and the top two advance to a runoff if no one gets a majority, which is somewhat likely. Landrieu though is a skilled politico and has voted as a relatively mainstream moderate Dem, yet polling typically shows her to be one of the most popular politicians in the state. For now I think we'll hold this seat, but as with Alaska I just can't move it to Lean D given the state's partisan default.

Overall, this brings us to -2 to -3 which is still well short of losing the chamber. I believe the national environment would have to significantly improve for Republicans for them to win the senate and that just isn't happening when we have divided government.