George Karl has a man crush.

A man crush, of course, is different from a crush crush. A man crush involves excessive exaltation for someone’s professional prowess; a crush crush is a Farrah Fawcett poster.

The Nuggets coach has a man crush on a fellow named John Hollinger, an NBA stats guru who developed the player efficiency rating and other “Moneyball”-type ways to rethink hoops. Karl often brings up Hollinger’s latest discoveries in conversation, for Hollinger is statistical validation of Karl’s occasional kookiness.

Nationwide, some NBA fans and analysts have seemed to disregard the Nuggets this season because there’s no superstar on the roster. But as Karl said during training camp: “There’s a lot of good that happened last year (after the Carmelo Anthony trade) that everyone forgot about (Denver went 18-7). And if you want to really go crazy, call John Hollinger, because there are some stats that scare the (heck) out of me.”

Hollinger pointed out that after Anthony was traded to the New York Knicks in February, the Nuggets’ average scoring margin was greater than 10 points. That, Hollinger wrote in an e-mail, is “ridiculously good. The best margin over the full season last year was Miami at plus-7.5.”

This was in a small sample size, sure, but entering this lockout-shortened season, Karl believes his team-first, extra-pass, happy-to-hustle Nuggets can thrive beginning Monday night in the opener at Dallas. So does Hollinger.

He picked the Nuggets to finish second (yes, second) in the Western Conference, trailing only Oklahoma City.

“I know, I know, you think I’m insane,” Hollinger wrote on ESPN.com. “But before you have me committed, hear me out. If I had to bet on a longshot team to win the title, Denver would absolutely, positively be the one. Not only are the Nuggets better than people realize, they have more potential for in-season improvement than any other team because of all their trade assets. More importantly, the regular-season format favors them more than any other team in the league. Remember Portland in 1999, a team with no stars that won big in the lockout season because they threw waves of depth at their weary opponents? This team is the second coming of that squad, minus the technical fouls and incarcerations.”

Deep impact with depth

Nineteen-eighty-four. Karl has been coaching for so long that the father of Cory Higgins, a player in Denver’s camp this month, also played for Karl. And of all the teams the 60-year-old Karl has coached, he said it’s possible that the 2011-12 Nuggets will be the deepest.

“Now, there are so many young guys who have to be proven,” he said. “And how deep do I want to go?”

But it’s possible Denver could go double-digit deep. This means players such as Danilo Gallinari, who could score in the 20s for other teams, might average only, say, 18 points per game for Denver. That’s fine. Karl wants to win. And he can do so only with the hand he’s been dealt. That hand doesn’t have a Melo.

“Masai (Ujiri) did a great job assembling this team to make us competitive in practice and in games,” said guard Arron Afflalo, referring to the Nuggets executive. “With the way Coach Karl wants to play, to … wear teams down, you never know what particular player may step up on any given night. I think that’s an advantage. You can’t pinpoint one guy so much.”

Afflalo will be a starter in Denver’s backcourt with Ty Lawson, whom Phoenix Suns coach Alvin Gentry says is “one of the more underrated point guards in this league. He’s great at penetrating, he’s great at pitching the ball and I think what everybody has found out is he’s a pretty doggone efficient 3-point shooter.”

Gallinari will be a starter at small forward, Nene at power forward and Timofey Mozgov at center. Mozgov is somewhat of a mystery to Denver fans, but the 25-year-old post player had an awesome autumn in Russia.

So who will be the “sixth man” for the Nuggets? Well, they actually have “sixth men.”

There’s newcomer Rudy Fernandez, who will fill the J.R. Smith role at shooting, and veteran playmaker Andre Miller, who will fill the Raymond Felton role and play big minutes in Karl’s two-point guard offense. That lineup sacrifices some defense but improves the Nuggets’ passing and penetration, major keys to offensive success.

Chris Andersen, Kosta Koufos, Al Harrington and rookie Kenneth Faried, a first-round draft pick, will battle for backup minutes in the low post. Corey Brewer, a fervent defender, could crack the rotation at small forward.

“We need everybody to contribute. And the good thing is (we have) guys who are willing passers,” Miller said. “You don’t have just one person you have to rely on to carry the load in a tough season like this. So hopefully that’s an advantage for us.”

This summer, Karl got into a philosophical debate with other coaches about, well, philosophies of coaching. Karl was steadfast that offensive matchups and execution are not as important as playmaking and penetration — maximizing speed in the transition game.

“Coaches say you can’t win it that way, and I said, ‘Why not?’ ” Karl said. “Check out how Dallas won.”

Dallas, yes, does have Dirk.

Dirk Nowitzki is an NBA superstar, to be sure, but Karl said it was the Mavericks’ multitude of pass-happy point guards — and dedication to low-post defense — that helped them beat the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals last season.

“I like a good, responsible basketball player,” Karl said. “I think we have a couple of veteran guys who fit that role and a couple of young guys who can get to that role. So if I have seven good, responsible basketball players, and you have two superstars and five average players, who’s going to win?

“Unfortunately, you have the Super Bowl ‘syndrome’ hanging over you. In the last 20 Super Bowls, how many teams have won without a Hall of Fame-like quarterback? Two. But there are only a certain number of quality studs (in the NBA). And for me, that number is a lot smaller than fans’. So you just want to say you can’t win until (you get one of those players)? My job is to figure out a different way to figure it out.”

Searching for some answers

There are questions. For one, who will be Denver’s go-to player in a tight fourth quarter? As Karl would argue, team defense will be the Nuggets’ go-to player, meaning that if they do their job defensively, they won’t need Melo at the buzzer.

Another question would be about Nene, whom the Nuggets just signed to a five-year contract that can pay up to $67 million. Which Nene will show up during games?

Take March and April of last season. The big guy had big scoring nights that included 20 points, 18 (twice) and even 22 in a playoff game. He also had scoring nights of seven, eight and nine (twice), in addition to 10 and eight in the final two games of the postseason.

Another question concerns a player no longer on the team: How can the Nuggets replace power forward Kenyon Martin on the defensive end?

“Having Kenyon with Nene was huge,” Karl said, “but that doesn’t mean we can’t do it with team concepts and philosophies and giving guys pride and responsibility to do it on their own. … He was a veteran, defensive-minded guy who was a big part of our toughness. Filling Kenyon’s minutes is probably the most difficult to do, but in the same sense, I think it can be done.

“Nene was basically always the B defender. Now he has to be the A defender. Nene can be in a similar category. The only problem is when you had two of them, you didn’t worry about foul trouble. Now can we get a team concept to camouflage that (by rotating in other big men for short snippets)? We also might jump in the pick-and-roll rather than switching all the time.”

In a Western Conference that could be up for grabs, it’s hard to gauge just how good — or bad — the Nuggets will be. But look at it this way: Things could be a lot worse. Usually, when a team loses its superstar player, that team is labeled with basketball’s scarlet “R” for “rebuilding.” Instead, the 2011-12 Nuggets likely are a playoff team. And if you ask Karl or his man crush, Denver could be a playoff team that could actually make a playoff run.

Benjamin Hochman: 303-954-1294, bhochman@denverpost.com or @nuggetsnews

