China’s Emissions On Course To Double By 2020

By Paul Homewood

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-11/21/content_17120968.htm

Further to my post yesterday about the illusory nature of China’s “emissions cuts”, I ran a few more numbers through, and realised that China have already achieved their target of a 40-45% cut in emissions per unit of GDP.

Let’s crank the numbers again.

GDP Renminbi CO2 Emissions

Million Tonnes Carbon 2005 18493 1579 2012 51894 2625

So:

Assuming China maintain the same emissions per unit of GDP between 2005 and 2012, emissions in 2012 would be:

(51894/18496) x 1579 = 4430

Actual emissions were 2625, which represents a cut of 41% from 4430.

It is hardly surprising, therefore, that China can confidently promise cuts of 40 to 45%. They have already achieved them.

This, of course, implies that emissions will, from now on, carry on increasing in line with GDP, which is on track for an 8% increase this year. If annual increases continue at this sort of level, GDP would have nearly doubled over 2012 levels by 2020.

I do not criticise China, as they have been totally open about all of this. But don’t believe the likes of John Gummer, when they try and hide these facts from you.

FOOTNOTE

Just to put the China numbers into perspective, their current emissions are 27% of the global figure, so a doubling would add another quarter.

Such an increase would be one and a half times the combined emissions of the whole of the EU, Russia and the rest of Europe and Eurasia.