Marco Rubio’s campaign is embracing a bold, but risky, strategy to emerge as the GOP establishment’s consensus challenger to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. | AP Photo Rubio scales back Iowa and N.H. advertising The Florida senator is airing fewer 60-second ads, but is still hoping for a third-place finish in Iowa and a strong finish in New Hampshire.

Marco Rubio had long planned an ambitious Iowa advertising assault in the weeks leading up to the caucuses, but his campaign has quietly scaled back its ad buys in the state by more than $860,000, according to a POLITICO analysis of advertising buys.

The change appears due partly to a switch from offense to defense, but it also comes at a time when the Florida senator is focusing his hopes for an early state victory in South Carolina, where his campaign is increasing its advertising buys, according to the analysis, compiled for POLITICO by The Tracking Firm.


Some of the decrease in Iowa ad spending likely stems from the campaign's switch from 60-second biographical ads to shorter 30-second ads that are considered more effective as responses to attacks such as those Rubio is facing from his rivals for the GOP nomination and the super PACs supporting them. By some calculations, Rubio has been the target of $8.5 million in negative ads in Iowa — by far the most of any candidate in the field. The majority have come from a super PAC supporting former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's floundering campaign, which early on identified Rubio as the challenger best positioned to coalesce the establishment Republican support Bush needed to gain traction.

That strategy has not worked for Bush. Anti-establishment candidates Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are dominating the polls in Iowa headed into the Feb. 1 caucuses, with Rubio polling a distant third and a cluster of establishment candidates, including Bush, even further back.

Rubio’s campaign is embracing a bold, but risky, strategy to emerge as the GOP establishment’s consensus challenger to Trump and Cruz. One version of the strategy, which some supporters have dubbed “3-2-1,” envisions Rubio placing third in the Iowa caucuses, second in the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9 and first in the South Carolina primary on Feb. 20.

A host of rival establishment candidates ― including Bush and Govs. Chris Christie of New Jersey and John Kasich of Ohio ― as well as Cruz, are spending heavily in New Hampshire in an effort to finish second behind Trump, who leads the field by a whopping 20 points.

But in South Carolina, things could line up better for Rubio. His campaign and super PAC operatives have strong ties in the state, home to the South’s first primary, and data from The Tracking Firm show that Rubio's campaign slightly increased its ad buys in the state during the period when it was reducing its Iowa buys. Still, in the last reliable South Carolina poll, which took place in December, he was well behind Trump and basically tied with Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

A spokesman for Rubio’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment on the shift in advertising strategy, but his campaign has sought to temper expectations in the early states, saying it's in the primary fight for the long haul and that Rubio is seeking to be among the last three candidates standing, whenever the field winnows.

His allies privately acknowledge, though, that to remain viable until South Carolina, he needs to finish as the top establishment candidate in Iowa, behind Trump and Cruz, who is running second behind Trump in national polls. Both Trump and Cruz terrify Republican Party elders, who see them as flawed general-election candidates who could cost the party the White House, as well as congressional seats.

After months in which Trump dominated the polls in Iowa, Cruz, riding strong support from the Hawkeye State’s robust evangelical community, overtook him in recent weeks, though some polls show Trump reclaiming the lead.

Trump has launched TV ads only in the past few weeks in Iowa and other early voting states, though he lacks a well-financed super PAC supporting him. Cruz and a group of super PACs supporting him have spent or booked $3.1 million on Iowa TV ads between Jan. 5 and next Monday, Jan. 25, according to The Tracking Firm’s aggregation of data from local television stations and cable providers.

During that same period, Rubio’s campaign has spent or booked about $3 million in Iowa ― down from about $3.5 million in its original reservations with local stations and cable providers.

Rubio's campaign on Thursday reduced its Iowa ad buys by another $360,000 for the seven-day stretch beginning on Tuesday and running through caucus day, according to The Tracking Firm, which also found that the campaign reduced its New Hampshire cable ad buys by $123,000 for that span.

A super PAC devoted to boosting Rubio, Conservative Solutions PAC, has spent or booked another $4.1 million in Iowa airtime from Jan. 5 through Jan. 25, and it has not reduced its buys, according to The Tracking Firm.

In New Hampshire, Rubio’s campaign and its supportive super PAC have done their biggest ad spending ― booking or spending a combined $11.3 million on cable and broadcast ads from Jan. 5 through Jan. 25, according to The Tracking Firm.

