We present an intuitive model that builds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make COVID-19 infections and deaths projections for the US, all 50 US states, and more than 70 countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for >95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.

Our infections estimate includes all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals in our estimates do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of August, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is roughly 4-8x higher than the reported cases. See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. To get a sense of the number of individuals that are actively infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4.

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Current US Projections

Current Total: 199,506 deaths | Projected Total: 223,400 deaths by Nov 1, 2020 (Range: 213-238k)

Currently Infected: 1.0% (1 in 105) | Total Infected: 15.6% (1 in 6)

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COVID-19 Dashboard

To see more maps or for more details (including how we calculate the C19Pro Score), visit our Maps page.

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US Deaths Likelihoods

Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by different time horizons.

Last updated: September 21, 2020

US deaths surpass: Most likely date: 200,000 Sep 22, 2020





US deaths surpass: By Oct 1 By Oct 15 By Nov 1 200,000 >99% >99% >99% 225,000 <1% <1% 29% 250,000 <1% <1% <1% 275,000 <1% <1% <1% 300,000 <1% <1% <1%

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View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 70 countries (including all 27 European Union countries).

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US

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US Counties

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Global Projections

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US Summary

States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by November 1).

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Europe Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01). Our Europe estimates currently include 35 European countries (including the entire European Union).

Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile Europe 194,766 217,041 366 22,275 38 11% 199,140 270,549 United Kingdom 41,866 43,870 650 2,004 30 5% 41,909 51,046 Italy 35,707 36,813 610 1,106 18 3% 35,725 41,001 Spain 30,495 36,679 781 6,184 132 20% 31,128 54,056 France 31,257 35,594 531 4,337 65 14% 31,981 48,810 Belgium 9,948 10,244 894 296 26 3% 9,980 11,102 Germany 9,390 9,678 117 288 3 3% 9,402 10,832 Netherlands 6,324 6,635 384 311 18 5% 6,337 7,480 Ukraine 3,626 6,265 142 2,639 60 73% 4,769 8,494 Romania 4,435 6,002 309 1,567 81 35% 5,100 7,488 Sweden 5,865 5,960 583 95 9 2% 5,872 6,220 Poland 2,293 2,986 79 693 18 30% 2,491 3,966 Switzerland 2,045 2,221 258 176 20 9% 2,082 2,546 Portugal 1,912 2,213 215 301 29 16% 1,936 2,719 Ireland 1,792 1,861 379 69 14 4% 1,797 2,064 Moldova 1,203 1,593 394 390 97 32% 1,363 1,962 Belarus 780 1,001 106 221 23 28% 852 1,311 Bulgaria 761 996 142 235 34 31% 875 1,195 Hungary 683 982 100 299 31 44% 797 1,279 Austria 766 886 100 120 14 16% 782 1,109 Czechia 503 849 80 346 33 69% 660 1,244 Serbia 741 809 116 68 10 9% 758 912 Denmark 638 702 121 64 11 10% 647 837 Greece 338 563 53 225 21 67% 429 814 Finland 339 355 64 16 3 5% 341 411 Croatia 248 350 86 102 25 41% 285 508 Norway 267 284 53 17 3 6% 270 322 Slovenia 142 167 80 25 12 18% 146 224 Luxembourg 124 138 225 14 23 11% 128 160 Lithuania 87 95 34 8 3 9% 88 108 Estonia 64 69 52 5 3 7% 66 75 Slovakia 39 51 9 12 2 30% 42 72 Malta 20 50 101 30 60 149% 32 86 Latvia 36 42 22 6 3 18% 37 51 Cyprus 22 26 30 4 5 19% 23 31 Iceland 10 11 33 1 4 13% 10 14

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Rest of World Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01).