It’s dangerous to extrapolate too much from any single special election, but the trend is clear across nearly all of the special contests over the past year: Democrats are over-performing and Republicans are struggling to hold open seats.

The over-performance by Democratic candidates hasn’t been limited by geography, considering they have done better than expected in Montana, Kansas, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Arizona, even if they’ve fallen short in all but one of those races.

Based on that trend, here are our rating changes:

Michigan’s 11th District

GOP Rep. Dave Trott isn’t running for re-election, leaving an open seat that President Donald Trump carried with less than 50 percent. Both parties have competitive primaries on Aug. 7, but, once again, this is the type of district Republicans will likely struggle to hold in this environment. Move from Tilts Republican to Toss-up.

New Jersey’s 2nd District

Longtime GOP Rep. Frank A. LoBiondo’s retirement opened up this South Jersey seat that Trump carried by 5 points. Democrats have a credible challenger in state Sen. Jeff Van Drew. He already represents some of the most Republican territory in the congressional district and has the early advantage in campaign cash. Van Drew had $456,000 in the bank on March 31, while none of the Republicans had more than $83,000. That fundraising discrepancy is part of the recipe for Democratic success. Move from Toss-up to Tilts Democratic.