Hillary Clinton Rolling Stone Portrait

According to The Green Papers, Clinton starts the day with a healthy +294 pledged delegate lead. Tonight's contests in Washington, Alaska and Hawaii favor Sanders.

I wanted to share four pledged delegate scenarios, that will give you an idea how formidable Hillary Clinton’s lead is at this point in the primary season.

Subir posted an excellent diary, with his pledged delegate targets for Sanders this evening. Let me say, he does a great job with his delegate diaries.

In his diary, his target tonight for Sanders this evening is 91. That’s 64.1% of the available delegates (142) and certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

142 pledged delegates up for grabs.

As it stands now, Sanders needs 57.8% of the remaining 1,889 delegates.

Sanders wants to over perform this baseline in future contests, so he can reduce the percentage of pledged delegates he needs going forward.

Scenarios

Sanders wins 60% of the 142 delegates, 85. Sanders still needs 1,007 of the remaining 1,747 or 57.7 % of the remaining total.



Sanders wins 64.1% of the 142 delegates, 91. Sanders still needs 1,001 of the remaining 1,747 or 57.3% of the remaining total.



Sanders wins 75% of the 142 delegates, 107. Sanders still needs 985 of the remaining 1747 or 56.4% of the remaining total.



Sanders wins 80% of the 142 delegates, 114. Sanders still needs 978 of the remaining 1747 or 56% of the remaining total.

The first scenario would leave Clinton with a +266 pledged delegate lead. The second scenario with a +254 lead, the third with a +222 lead and fourth with a +208 lead.

Looking at these scenarios, you understand just how difficult a path Sanders has to the nomination. All four of these leads would still be considered very healthy ones for Clinton.

If you’re a Hillary fan and she keeps Sanders margin down to 60% or below of the pledged delegate total, that would be a good night.

If you’re a Bernie fan and he hits subir’s projection of 64.1% of the delegates or higher, that would be a good night and certainly helps with reducing the future percentage of pledged delegates Sanders needs going forward.

The larger issue for Sanders going forward are states like New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland. He has to win these with larger margins and recent polling in these states favor Clinton. I don't think Sanders can count on a blow out in California, because realistically I don't see that happening.

You can use this handy Democratic Delegate Counter to come up with your own scenarios for the remaining contests. It’s updated with the +294 delegate lead. You can share your scenarios by link in the comments.

Democratic Delegate Counter: www.demrace.com

I hope the scenarios above give you a baseline you can use while analyzing tonight's results.