The Flag of Arizona

One of the most fascinating states in 2018 is Arizona. A traditionally conservative state long buoyed by its elderly population of retirees, it also has had an infusion of hispanic voters which may be balancing things out. In 2016, the state lurched leftward, with Trump winning it by just 3.5 points after Romney had won it by 9 in 2012. More recently, Trump’s numbers in Arizona haven’t been great and Democrats seem to be favorites to flip a US Senate seat out in the desert this fall. Coupled with that is the latest Marist Poll that had Democrats by 7 on the statewide generic ballot, the type of margin that could make things verrrrrry interesting in November. Can Democrats flip the State Senate? Let’s take a look:

Arizona State Senate Ratings

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 10 (D) 18 (D) 6 (R) 8 (R) 11 (R) 21 (R) 17 (R) 28 (R) 20 (R)

Likely D: 10

10th District: David Bradley

This district in east Tucson has a D+3 PVI and is held by Incumbent Democrat David Bradley. Bradley won this seat by beating an incumbent back in 2012 and has held it since then, including an 8 point win in 2016. That margin makes it not a super secure seat, but one Democrats should hold. In 2018, he is facing Marilyn Wiles, who was planning on running for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, but decided to drop down to here. She’s new to the field, so he has a big money advantage, and it’s a reason why we maintain the Likely D rating.

Lean D: 18

18th District: Sean Bowie

SD-18 is located just south of Tempe and just west of Chandler, Arizona and it shifted from Romney +2 to Clinton +10. In the process, Sean Bowie was able to edge Frank Schmuck (great name) for the open seat in 2016 by a narrow 51-49 margin. With a better national environment, Bowie starts off as a clear favorite in his rematch battle with Schmuck, who is quite well funded. Still, district partisanship and national dynamics make Bowie the favorite this fall, just not a big one.

Tossup: 6, 21, 28

6th District: Sylvia Allen

The first very good Democratic pickup opportunity comes in a larger northern Arizona district that includes Flagstaff. It’s an R+8 PVI district that went to Trump by 10, yet it’s also a top tier opportunity for a Democratic flip because Incumbent Sylvia Allen barely won re-election in 2016 (51-49). She’s a pretty weak incumbent and Democrats have Wade Carlisle, Vice Mayor of Holbrook, in the race. He seems to be pretty moderate, running on an education-focused platform, and he already has more money on hand than Allen does. This is a tossup, but maybe tilting towards Democrats and one they need to get the majority.

21st District: Rick Gray

SD-21 is a Republican-held seat that’s in danger, but not to a Democrat. Rather, this Peoria-based R+10 seat is being contested by an independent, as Democrats did not field a candidate. This is Debbie Lesko’s old seat, who retired to run for AZ-08’s special election back in April, and Rick Gray was appointed, entering the fall as a pseudo-incumbent. The independent is Kathy Knecht, a member of the Peoria School Board, giving her legitimate stature and has almost 3x as much money on hand as Rick Gray does. She will get the Democratic vote, which is about 40-41% in this district in presidential years (probably a higher percentage this year), so she doesn’t have to siphon off that much of the GOP vote to win the race and given her credentials and cash amount, that is very possible. I’m not sure which party she’d caucus with (probably Dems?), but this is a tossup race.

28th District: Kate Brophy McGee

One of the swingiest seats on the map, SD-28 is located in the Phoenix area, northwest of Scottsdale. With an R+2 PVI, it swung to Democrats in 2016, as Hillary won it by 5 points. That result just wasn’t enough to edge Kate Brophy McGee, who won SD-28 as an open seat by a narrow 51-49 margin. In 2018, Democrats have this seat at the top of the target list, recruiting teacher Christine Marsh to run for this seat. She’s already raised quite a bit of money, though McGee is well funded. Expect this to be an expensive and close race, though Democrats are probably slight favorites.

Lean R: 8, 17, 20

8th District: Frank Pratt

Here we find an R+8 district that encompasses the Gila River Indian Reservation, as well cities like Florence, Coolidge, and Sacaton. In 2016, Republican Frank Pratt was able to best Incumbent Democrat by a 53-47 margin, while Trump was winning here by 15. That makes Pratt a favorite to win again in 2018, but with a worse national environment, SD-8 is not totally safe, especially since it quite recently elected a Democrat. Retired PA Sharon Girard is the fundraising leader for the Democrats, and she has enough to be competitive with Pratt, but I’m not willing to say this is a tossup race.

17th District: Open (Yarbrough)

This is an R+6 district centered on Chandler, Arizona, and it was actually quite competitive in 2016, going to Trump by just four points. Being an open seat, this figures to make it close in 2018, though Republicans still have a candidate edge. The GOP recruited State Rep. JD Mesnard into the race and he has a lot of money in the bank, proving a difficult foe. Democrats have tech dude Steve Weichert, who will need to raise a lot more money to win. This is the type of potential flip district that Democrats would like to win, and it could be carried over the top in a wave, but they need to see more from their candidate to have a good amount of faith in their prospects.

20th District: Open (Yee)

Here we have another open seat, this one north of Glendale and east of Peoria. It has an R+7 PVI and was Trump +8 in 2016, so another fringe opportunity. Once again, Republicans have the better candidate, with State Rep. Paul Boyer in the race, while the Democratic favorite is probably businessman Doug Ervin. Boyer has a significant money edge at the moment, but if Ervin starts to close the gap, this race could be closer. For now, the GOP has a clear upper hand.

Likely R: 11

11th District: Open (Smith)

Last but not least we have one more open seat, this one starting northwest of Tucson and stretching all the way up into Maricopa County. With an R+10 PVI, it’s a bit of a reach, but not too much. It was a Trump +14 district in 2016, and Democrats have their 2016 candidate, Ralph Atchue, back in the race. Atchue did fine for running against an incumbent, and now he will have the chance to prove himself. He’s facing off against the well-funded Vince Leach, a State Rep.. This should be a GOP hold, but we’re just keeping it on the radar.

The Path to a Democratic Majority

Arizona does not have a Lt. Gov., so a tied Senate results in a power sharing agreement (this happened back in 2000). The path to a Democratic majority is to flip districts 6 and 28, which both seem like good opportunities. That gets you +2 and to a tie in the chamber. The tricky part is finding the third flip, which would probably come from Knecht winning SD-21 and then caucusing as a Democrat, to give Team Blue a majority. If not, it would require flipping one of the seats in Lean R, which while not impossible, also isn’t super likely. A wave would probably be required to carry one of those districts over the top.

Bottom Line

There’s a lot of uncertainty in this chamber and if a wave does crash ashore in the Valley of the Sun, Democrats could easily take the majority. I’m just not willing to call it a tossup yet, so Lean R seems most appropriate.

Chamber Rating: Lean R

Estimate if election were held today: no change to D+3