The puck drops on the NHL’s second season on Wednesday, and contrary to last season, when it appeared as if the field was wide open, there’s now a handful of teams that have to be considered Stanley Cup favorites. And within that group, there’s still a variety of styles of teams to watch: it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see veteran units like the Boston Bruins or the Pittsburgh Penguins hoist the Stanley Cup in June, nor would it come as a shock for the young cores of the Winnipeg Jets or the Toronto Maple Leafs to end Canada’s cup drought as well.

This season, the Guardian has ranked teams from least to most likely to win the Stanley Cup. It’s a difference from last season but if there’s one thing that carries over: the current NHL playoff format still stinks, super hard.

16) Colorado Avalanche

Current form Winners of just two of their last seven, the Avalanche still got a decisive win on the second-last day of the season over the St Louis Blues, who finished just one point behind them in the playoff race.

How they can win Nathan MacKinnon forgets that Hart Trophy voting only applies to the regular season and continues his torrid 1.31 points per game pace, the best of any player in the playoffs.

How they can lose The Avalanche are a bottom-five team in terms of puck possession. They could get skated around routinely.

Player to watch After being part of a historically bad team last season, MacKinnon has become the player so many expected him to be after he was drafted first overall in 2013. He’s taken this team on his back, doing his best to make up for a lack of scoring depth. Few people will give the Avs a chance against the Presidents’ Trophy winners, so it’ll be fun to watch MacKinnon just play with house money.

Fun fact After an abysmal 48-point campaign last season, the Avalanche were forced to deal sulking star Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators early this season, after Duchene explained that he “wanted to play playoff hockey”. The Senators ended up finishing far out of the playoff race.

Why should you care? Tough one. In terms of first-round opponents, the Predators are still far more likable. You’d have to be a really, really big MacKinnon fan to go all in on this team.

15) Columbus Blue Jackets

Current form No team has scored more since the beginning of March than the Blue Jackets. Still, they sat many of their stars in their final game of the season and lost, meaning they’d avoid the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins in the process.

How they can win Likely Vezina Trophy nominee Sergei Bobrovsky stands on his head to get through a crowded Eastern Conference.

How they can lose They’d have to go through the Washington Capitals and likely the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first two rounds. Oh, wait.

Player to watch I’m a big, big Artemi Panarin fan. I’m still shocked the Blackhawks traded the insanely skilled winger before this season. His puck-moving skills are still some of the best in the league and he scored at a point-per-game clip without any other Grade A linemates.

Fun fact The Blue Jackets have never won a playoff round in franchise history. Sorry, my definition of fun has changed as I’ve gotten older.

Why should you care? More Blue Jackets wins means more camera time for enigmatic coach John Tortorella.

Sergei Bobrovsky, right, and Artemi Panarin will try to lead the Blue Jackets to the first playoff series win in club history. Photograph: Sergei Belski/USA Today Sports

14) Minnesota Wild

Current form Overall, the Wild put up good results in the second half of the season but have still cooled as of late, looking more like a middle of the pack team more than anything else with just three wins in their last eight regular-season games.

How they can win The Wild continue to keep pucks out of high danger areas as they have all season and capitalize on their league-best expected goals against.

How they can lose Losing one of the NHL’s perennial leaders in ice time, defenseman Ryan Suter, to a fractured ankle in the last week of the season really hurts the Wild’s chances. Suter had tied his career-best point total before being ruled out for the rest of the season.

Player to watch Oh man, Eric Staal. At 33, this season hasn’t just been a resurgence for the center, but something closer to a revelation. His 76 points are his highest total since 2010-11 and he’s scored like a Rocket Richard candidate in the second half of the season. If you want a feel good story, Staal is your boy.

Fun fact The Wild finished in the middle-third of the NHL in goals for and goals against per game, as well as power-play and penalty-kill percentage.

Why should you care? Upsetting the heavily favored Winnipeg Jets in the first round would do a lot to get this inevitable geographically inclined rivalry going.

13) San Jose Sharks

Current form Inconsistent. They’ve won just one of their last six games, but this comes immediately after they fired off an eight-game winning streak. Will the real Sharks please show themselves?

How they can win The Martin Jones of 2016 needs to re-emerge. The goaltender was fantastic in 24 post-season games with the Sharks two seasons ago, registering three shutouts and posting a .923 save percentage.

How they can lose Not getting back center and face of the franchise Joe Thornton would hurt. Thornton missed the final 35 games of the regular season with a knee injury and while he’s not expected to play in game one of their first round series against the Anaheim Ducks, he has been skating regularly with the team.

Player to watch Logan Couture. The 29-year old picked up the slack on the score sheet in Thornton’s absence, scoring 34 goals this season, a career high. In the 2016 playoffs, when the Sharks lost to the Penguins in the Stanley Cup final, Couture led the league in playoff scoring with an impressive 30 points in 24 games. Can he replicate that success?

Fun fact The Sharks and the Ducks have been in the Pacific Division together since 1993, but this will be just the second meeting in the post-season between these two teams. The Ducks won that first meeting, four games to two in the 2009 Western Conference quarterfinals.

Why should you care? A strong playoff showing from the Sharks could only intensify the odds that the NHL’s most touted likely free agent, centre John Tavares, shakes up the balance of power in the Western Conference and signs with the Sharks. The Sharks look like a good fit on paper for Tavares. Could he see enough out of the team in the playoffs to make the move to California?

12) Philadelphia Flyers

Current form Winners of six of their last eight, the Flyers leapfrogged the Blue Jackets and into third place in the Metropolitan Division. Their reward? A date with their hated cross-state rivals and two-time defending Stanley Cup champions, the Pittsburgh Penguins.

How they can win They’ll have to settle down and play with some consistency, to start. The Flyers never-ending questions about their goaltending crept up once again when trade deadline acquisition Petr Mrazek did little to weather the storm. Brian Elliott will likely be in net for the Flyers, but whether it’s the Brian Elliott who had a .921 save percentage through 18 playoff games with the St Louis Blues two seasons ago or the Elliott who had a horrendous four games with the Calgary Flames in the playoffs last season remains to be seen.

How they can lose Taking penalties against the league’s top-rated power play would not be a good start. Taking penalties against any team, for that matter, might not be to the Flyers advantage: Their PK% is third from the bottom in the NHL.

Player to watch It’s been hard not to keep an eye on centre and possible Hart Trophy candidate Claude Giroux this season, who finished second in NHL scoring with 102 points, a career high.

Fun fact When discussing the Flyers and these playoffs, I am bound by law to mention that the last time they met the Penguins in the playoffs, their 2012 Eastern Conference quarterfinals was just nuts: 56 goals in total were scored over six games, including a 10-3 Penguins win and an 8-5 barnburner of a win for the Flyers.

Now that that’s out of the way, it’s also worth mentioning that there’s been turnover on both teams since.

Why should you care? Among teams that have actually won the Stanley Cup, the Flyers rank second in terms of longest Cup droughts. If you’re into chaos and are interested in seeing a pesky team upset the Stanley Cup champs, this is the team for you.

Flyers left wing Claude Giroux (28) is congratulated by center Nolan Patrick (19), defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere (53) and center Sean Couturier (14) after a goal. Photograph: Derik Hamilton/USA Today Sports

11) New Jersey Devils

Current form Winners of seven of their last nine, including wins over the Penguins, Lightning and Leafs during that stretch.

How they can win Look, it’s going to be tough here. But given that this team finished dead last in the Eastern Conference last season, they’re really playing with house money right now. Few expected the Devils to be where they are this season so there’s no real pressure on this team. We might be surprised if the Devils, playing with nothing to lose, get rolling.

How they can lose They play a team with scoring depth in the first round. So, about that …

Player to watch With 41 more points than any other player in the Devils lineup, forward Taylor Hall is an MVP contender. In one of the more logic-defying trades in recent memory, Hall was flipped from the Edmonton Oilers two years ago and now gets his first ever shot in the playoffs.

Fun fact Goalie Keith Kinkaid, who took over the reins as starter from Cory Schneider as he faltered in the second half of the season, has more games played in the AHL than the NHL.

Why should you care? There has not been a more contentious Hart Trophy debate in recent memory than this season. So much of the argument focuses on whether the team an MVP played for should make the playoffs for a player to be considered. And Hall took the Devils on his back for many a game this season and got them into the final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. If you want to see an MVP let loose in the playoffs, and are also highly critical of Edmonton Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli, this is the series for you.

10) Anaheim Ducks

Current form Coming in hot. Winners of their last five games, and 13 of 18 since the beginning of March.

How they can win This core clearly knows how to go deep in the playoffs, as evidenced by their two trips to the Western Conference final over the last three seasons. Whether their aging core, buoyed by some upstart performances from Ondrej Kase and Rickard Rakell, has enough to get them into the Stanley Cup finals remains to be seen.

How they can lose The Ducks have lost a lot of players to injuries this season, including goaltender John Gibson to an upper-body injury on 1 April. Gibson skated this week and it’s possible he’ll return for the playoffs, but these are some beat up bodies we’re talking about here.

Player to watch I said it last year and I’ll say it again: Ryan Getzlaf. When he scores, the rest of the team generally follows suit. The 32-year old forward has logged an impressive 121 playoff games throughout his career and still has the ability to change a game.

Fun fact Ducks forward Andrew Cogliano saw his ironman streak of consecutive games played in a row snapped at 830 in January, when he was suspended for two games. It was the longest active streak at the time and the fourth-longest run in league history.

Why should you care? I thought last season that the Ducks would not be able to sustain their continued regular season success and continually get into the playoffs, but I was proven wrong. Want to buy into an old hockey cliché and see some warriors go to work in the playoffs? This is your team.

9) Los Angeles Kings

Current form Winners of five of their last seven, though three of those wins came against teams outside of the playoff picture.

How they can win Keep it tight, as they have all season. The Kings played strong defensively all season and allowed fewer goals than any other team in the NHL. That rolled over into their penalty kill, which was also the best in the league.

How they can lose Like the Ducks, the Kings are one of the oldest teams in the NHL and according to The Athletic, the oldest of any playoff team. There’s a ton of experience here, and that could help them. But series after series of playoff hockey could also catch up with them.

Player to watch Goaltender Jonathan Quick was awarded his second William M Jennings Trophy this season for having the lowest goals-against average. He’s a former Conn Smythe Trophy winner as playoff MVP when the Kings won the Stanley Cup in 2012.

Fun fact Kings forward Anže Kopitar signed an eight-year, $80m contract before last season and produced just 52 points in 76 games. This season, Kopitar silenced any doubters with an incredible 92 points in 82 games.

Why should you care? After winning the Stanley Cup in 2014, the Kings have yet to make it past the first round of the playoffs. Here’s a chance to see a team try to return to past glories.

Kings center Anze Kopitar, left, celebrates with team-mate Drew Doughty in a recent game. Photograph: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today Sports

8) Vegas Golden Knights

Current form They certainly aren’t in the form they were early in the season, when they stormed out of the gates to win eight of their first nine games en route to eventually convincing the hockey world this expansion team is for real. In their last seven games, they’ve lost to the lowly Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers and Arizona Coyotes while needing a shootout to get past the Vancouver Canucks.

How they can win The luck doesn’t run out on the NHL’s best story this season. A squad full of players that were largely cast aside by former teams continues to prove to the league why they should not have been doubted.

How they can lose The luck does indeed run out and they come up against a team with a seasoned core who have been together in many playoff series of the past.

Player to watch It has to be Marc-André Fleury, the lovable three-time Stanley Cup winner who was claimed in the expansion draft. He’s become one of the faces of the new franchise and while he hasn’t always had consistent success in the playoffs, he’s still worth keeping an eye on.

Fun fact Per Capfriendly, Knights forward Jonathan Marchessault has the second-best cost per point in the NHL this season, behind Connor McDavid, still on his entry-level deal. With a miniscule cap hit of $750,000, Marchessault’s cost per point was only $10,000.

Why should you care? Just days before the Knights opened their inaugural season, a gunman opened fire on a crowd at a Las Vegas music festival, killing 58 people. Since then, almost nothing has stopped the Knights from producing the kind of season that has transcended sports. Beyond all the puns about playing with house money, this is a team that plays fast, fore checks well and is just so damn entertaining. Regardless of how they perform in the playoffs, this season has been one for the history books.

7) Washington Capitals

Current form Winners of 11 of their last 14, including wins over the Penguins and Winnipeg Jets.

How they can win They find a hole in the space-time continuum and skip right from the first round of the playoffs to the third round.

How they can lose Is there anything that can be said here that hasn’t been said for the past few seasons with this current Capitals core? They’re a consistently strong team in the regular season but have never made it past the second round of the playoffs since 1998. Many of the same arguments that apply from past Capitals playoff preview stories still apply. There’s loads of offensive talent here.

Player to watch German goalie Philipp Grubauer started the season as the Capitals back-up goalie behind 2016 Vezina Trophy winner Braden Holtby, considered to be one of the best in the game. Yet as Holtby has struggled, Grubauer started 10 of the final 16 games of the season for the Capitals and he’ll be between the pipes for game one of their first round series against the Columbus Blue Jackets. He put up a .923 save percentage this season, but has also started just one playoff game in his career.

Fun fact Alex Ovechkin won his seventh Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s highest goal scorer this season. Adjusting for era, you can make a legitimate case that he is the best goal scorer in NHL history.

Why should you care? See above. It’s not often you get to watch one of the most singularly skilled athletes ever to play the game.

Can Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals finally put it together in the playoffs? Photograph: Nick Wass/AP

6) Toronto Maple Leafs

Current form Despite finishing with the most points in a season in franchise history, the Leafs have not looked incredibly consistent down the stretch, defeating teams like the league-best Nashville Predators but also dropping games to the Buffalo Sabres and New York Islanders. Yikes.

How they can win Mike Babcock opts for speed and skill in his lineup choices and gives young scorers Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen more time on ice than some of his veterans. This will only serve to complement their high-end scoring talent, including Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Nazem Kadri.

How they can lose Their questionable blue line fails to shut down opposition scoring. We could be in for some track meets that defy traditional, shutdown playoff hockey.

Player to watch With a nine-game point streak leading into the playoffs after returning from an injury, Matthews has followed up on his Calder Trophy-winning season as rookie of the year last season with an even more dominant campaign. Matthews is on the verge of being named captain of the Leafs and a strong playoff performance would eliminate any doubt that he’s the man for the job.

Fun fact The Leafs are beginning the playoffs with a rematch of the 2013 first round against the Boston Bruins, which no one wants to talk about.

Why should you care? Look, this Leafs team has most of the pieces necessary to compete for a Stanley Cup. The rebuild was quick, and it’s now over. Like it or not, if this team goes on a run, they could become Canada’s team.

5) Boston Bruins

Current form The Bruins come into the playoffs having lost four of their last five games, two of which were against the Florida Panthers. Not exactly inspiring a ton of confidence.

How they can win The Bruins’ special teams are some of the league’s best. Their PK % and PP % are both in the league’s top five and their 5-on-5 scoring is top ten in the NHL as well. This Bruins team can perform well in many facets of the game.

How they can lose They’ll have to go through the Leafs and likely the Tampa Bay Lightning just to get to the third round of the playoffs. That’s not good.

Player to watch Patrice Bergeron is probably the best two-way player in the NHL. Does that mean he’ll garner a ton of highlights? No. But if you can keep your eye on him, you’ll see a player who does all the little things the right way.

Fun fact The Bruins finished fourth overall in the NHL this season and now have to face the seventh best team in the league in terms of points. This playoff format has got to go, ASAP.

Why should you care? They’re just such a strong hockey club by so many metrics. As mentioned, this is the kind of club to watch if you want hockey generally played the right way.

Boston’s Patrice Bergeron is probably the best two-way player in the NHL Photograph: Winslow Townson/USA Today Sports

4) Tampa Bay Lightning

Current form Certainly not on the white-hot pace they were to start the season, when they won 27 of their first 37 games. The Lightning have beaten teams like the Leafs and Bruins in the final three weeks of the season while also losing to teams like the Arizona Coyotes.

How they can win Keep scoring. No team scored more goals per game in the NHL than the Lightning this season.

How they can lose As much as they score, the Lightning allowed 32.7 shots per game this season. That’s bottom 10 in the NHL. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy finished with a .920 save percentage this season, so it looks as if he’s still up to the task. But if he falters, all that scoring may not be enough to help the Lightning.

Player to watch Take your pick. No roster in the NHL is more loaded with talent. Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos are still two of the premier scorers in hockey and if Tampa Bay can get set up on a power play, they’re very tough to stop and entertaining as all hell to watch.

Fun fact Last season, the Penguins also led the league in regular season scoring and went on to win the Stanley Cup.

Why should you care? Through shrewd trades, no member of any front office has put in more of an effort to win a Stanley Cup than Lightning GM Steve Yzerman. It feels like it could very well be the time for all this talent acquired to shine.

3) Nashville Predators

Current form The President’s Trophy winners as the best team in the regular season finished the final week of the regular season with wins over the Lightning and Capitals.

How they can win Build off of last season. The Predators were a wild card team in last year’s playoffs but still upset the Chicago Blackhawks by sweeping them in the first round before reaching their first ever Stanley Cup final. This is a deep team, boasting the likely Vezina Trophy winner in Pekka Rinne and one of the best bluelines in the NHL. There’s no glaring holes here.

How they can lose I’m struggling here. There’s just so much to like about this team.

Player to watch Defenseman Roman Josi plays a complete game and is quietly among the league’s best defenseman. Again, this is a case of watching a player doing so many of the little things right. But the difference here is that Josi is not alone and you could say that for so many of the Predators’ defenseman.

Fun fact It costs $141.75 to send a dead catfish from Nashville to the NHL offices in Toronto.

Why should you care? Not only is PK Subban a talented defenseman, his persona is exactly what the NHL needs more of.

2) Winnipeg Jets

Current form One of the hottest in the league, having won 11 of their last 12.

How they can win The young Jets ranked second in the NHL in goals scored per game and also finished fifth in goals against per game. They’re the only team in the NHL to finish in the top five in each of those categories.

How they can lose Twenty-four-year-old goalie Connor Hellebuyck was a phenomenon this season, posting a .924 save percentage while no goalie played more games than him this season. He’s the key piece here, and for this young team to build confidence through multiple rounds of the playoffs, Hellebuyck will have to be solid. He has, of course, never played a playoff game in his NHL career.

Player to watch Hellebuyck’s the easy choice here, but in his first ever post-season, I’ll keep my eye on Patrik Laine. The 19-year-old finished second in goal scoring this season with an impressive 44 goals. His shot in simply one of the deadliest in the game.

Fun fact The city of Winnipeg was cast under a dark cloud in January when some San Jose Sharks threw shade at the city, saying “it’s so cold and dark there” and called it the worst city in the league to play in. The Jets responded by beating the Sharks 4-1 in Winnipeg soon afterwards. Please, hockey Gods, lets have a Western Conference final between the two clubs.

Why should you care? Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff built this club slowly, resisting the urge to make many drastic moves. The Jets can now boast the most dynamic young crop of players in the league.

1) Pittsburgh Penguins

Current form Winners of five of their last seven, including a win over their first round opponent, the Philadelphia Flyers.

How they can win They know what to do this time of the year. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions can boast three of the league top ten scorers, (Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Sidney Crosby) spread across three different lines. They can barrage opposition goaltenders, having thrown more shots on net than any team besides the Florida Panthers this season. It’s really tough to bet against a team with their track record.

How they can lose Goalie Matt Murray played the same amount of games as he did last season but his save percentage dropped from .923 in 2016-17 to .907 this season. The Penguins don’t have the goaltending depth they did last season after losing Fleury in the expansion draft. If Murray can’t hold down the fort, there could be problems.

Player to watch Malkin had a stellar season, with 98 points in 78 games. I know I said the same thing last season, but he has a rightful place in the MVP discussion after a full season produced some of his best numbers since 2012. He’s won the Conn Smythe before and I’ll echo my arguments about Ovechkin: it’s great to be able to watch one of the best to ever play the game.

Fun fact With a salary cap hit of just $8.7m, Crosby might have one of the best value-based contracts among non entry-level deals.

Why should you care? The NHL has not had a team win three Stanley Cups in a row since the 1983 New York Islanders won the last of four straight.