In a YouGov poll running from September 2nd to 6th, Democrats were permitted to rank their favorite 2020 Presidential candidates in order of preference. This marks one of the first instances of ranked choice voting being used in a poll for President, hinting at increased momentum for the reform.

The poll was commissioned by FairVote, an electoral reform nonprofit based in Washington, D.C.. In a press release, FairVote’s CEO, Rob Richie, said:

“In contrast to how most single choice opinion polling is used, ranked-choice surveys allow a greater understanding of how voters are considering a field of options, what depth of support candidates have in rankings and how one candidate’s fall over the course of the campaign could affect others’ rise. While the state of the race may change coming out of tonight’s debate, the current findings suggest Sen. Elizabeth Warren as the current frontrunner in the race.”

The poll was first publicized exclusively in Vox, who released a lengthy graphic (see below) showing how the votes transferred from one candidate to the next. Buttigieg is the first to fall, and his votes transfer mostly to Warren, Biden, and Harris. After Buttigieg, Harris is eliminated, then Sanders. After each elimination, Warren received the most of the votes that are transferred.

So while Biden wins the first round with 33% of the vote, he eventually loses to Warren when she wins the spoils from the eliminated candidates.

The poll also sheds light on how Warren stacks up against other candidates. For instance, when put head to head with Sanders, Warren wins with 62% of the vote. Against Harris, she wins 75%, and against Buttigieg, 79%. She performs better against each individual candidate than does Biden.

The poll also showed Warren with a wide breadth of support, receiving top rankings from 59% of respondents versus Biden’s 50%. In overall favorability, Warren also wins with a 74% favorable, 13% unfavorable split.

The evidence shows that voters have an overall preference for Warren and would usually prefer her over each other candidate in the field, but due to the nature of the election system currently used, she is currently in second place behind Biden.

Ranked choice voting, the electoral system backed by FairVote, RepresentUs, Common Cause, and many other electoral fairness organizations, would fix this.

YouGov’s poll showed that over two-thirds of the participants said that ranking candidates was easy, and 65% of people said they would support ranked choice voting — only a paltry 13% opposed it.

The poll was released on the morning of the September 12th Democratic debate, and FairVote explained what the data could mean for the candidates.

“Breaking down each candidate’s second choice support also could indicate who might benefit or be hurt by a candidate’s rise or fall in support after [Sept 12th’s] debate. For example, Harris voters are five times more likely to indicate Warren as a second choice than Biden, and Harris is the second choice of a quarter of Warren’s voters.”

This suggests that Warren could stand to gain dramatically from Harris having a lackluster debate or from eventually dropping out.

As far as democracy reform advocates are concerned, though, the data shows something else.

To them, the poll presents incontrovertible evidence that ranked choice voting could alter the results of the 2020 Democratic Primary in a direction that leads to better representation for voters. It would nominate a candidate with broader support that would more truly represent the wills of the Democratic Party.

FairVote created software that allows the public to interact with data from their poll.

-Ben Chapman

Ben writes about politics, food, and the internet. He is an electoral reform advocate in Illinois, and he always wants to put something clever in his bio but he couldn’t come up with something this time.