Virginia’s 9th congressional district, in the largely mountainous southwestern corner of the state, is one of the most conservative districts in the state—even the country. Cook Political Report says the district leans Republican by 19 points. Donald Trump won 68 percent of the vote there. It went for Mitt Romney and John McCain, and indeed every other Republican presidential candidate since 1964. When President Barack Obama travelled there in 2009 to build support for the Affordable Care Act, locals greeted him with protests. It is not a place any Democrat seems likely to win a race for Congress.

So Republican Congressman Morgan Griffith should, theoretically, have little trouble defeating Anthony Flaccavento this November. But the 9th district’s political history is more complicated than it seems, as reflected by Griffith’s own rise to power. He defeated Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher eight years ago with the backing of a newly powerful Tea Party movement. At the time, Boucher had represented the 9th for 28 years. The district’s Democrats now face the same quandary that confronts Democrats throughout these mountains: How can the party rebuild power in the Appalachians?

West Virginia’s Joe Manchin is one of the most conservative Democrats in the U.S. Senate, and thus embodies the old party doctrine that only conservative or moderate Democrats can reliably win in districts like Virginia’s 9th. But Flaccavento, a 61-year-old organic farmer and author, is running on Medicare for All, green alternatives to the coal industry, and abortion rights. Like Richard Ojeda in West Virginia’s 3rd congressional district, Flaccavento believes that progressive populism, not political moderation, can revive a flagging Democratic Party in rural America.

Ojeda recently campaigned for Flaccavento, crossing the state line in an expression of Appalachian solidarity. Ojeda’s race is a toss-up, or at worst leans Republican. But neither RealClearPolitics nor Cook Political Report rates the 9th as competitive. This also isn’t Flaccavento’s first run against Griffith. He lost to Griffith by 20 points in 2012.

But Flaccavento and his supporters say that this year is different, that the 9th is different. As evidence, his campaign cites internal polling that puts him within 7 points of Griffith. Flaccavento, who also supports stricter anti-trust regulation, a path to citizenship for DACA recipients, and an emphasis on rehabilitation over incarceration for opioid users, believes that Trump isn’t as popular as he used to be, even in western Virginia, and that Griffith’s political credit is running out.