Apple almost went out of business 14 years ago, and many would have blamed what seemed one of the seminal business blunders in history.

Bill Gates was chatting with students at Stanford at the time and recalled letters he'd written to Steve Jobs begging him to allow cloning of Apple hardware. Had Mr. Jobs complied, Apple's operating system might have become the de facto universal standard, the one everybody wrote software for—a role that fell to Windows instead.

Google may not be Microsoft, exactly: For one thing, Google is giving away its smartphone operating system, known as Android, for free. Nor will the battle yield a similar winner-take-all outcome. But otherwise the effects are likely to be the same.