James C. Bennett

Older Americans will remember the demolition of the Pruitt-Igoe housing project in St Louis in 1972. It was built in 1954 with the best of intentions and designed with the expert opinion of social scientists and architects. Despite its good intentions like many other high-rise public housing projects it gradually turned into a nest of crime, dependency and social pathologies. Its demolition stands as a spectacular image of failure in the public mind.

Yesterday the British electorate, accomplished the political equivalent of the dynamiting of Pruitt-Igoe. Yesterday, the British voters approved a referendum for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union by a modest but decisive margin. Prime Minister (and Remain leader) David Cameron, this morning announced that he will resign as prime minister within 3 months. This came as a shock to stock markets, pollsters, betting-shop operators, and the general punditocracy, who all who had predicted a Remain victory. Furthermore, this shock has come on top of a series of wrong calls on issues and public events throughout the developed world. It seems as though the general public is no longer inclined to follow the advice of their betters. Rejection of establishment parties, and establishment candidates, no matter what the ideologies involved, has become a regular feature of politics throughout the developed world. Britain has turned out to be no different.

However, Brexit may be a beneficial rebellion. Like Pruitt-Igoe, the European Union was a mid 50s invention that was created with the best of intentions and with the blessing of the best of social and political science of its time. It accomplished some good things at first but gradually accumulated more and more dysfunction of its own while expanding to take in more and more dysfunctional states.

Britain never fully committed to the European project, gradually accepting more and more costs while receiving fewer and fewer benefits from membership. Finally, the only argument that the "Remain" side in the referendum could summon was fear of the unknown. That was not enough.

Unlike the continental European states, Britain has always had another option. Far more of its trade was with overseas partnersthan was true of the continental states. Its ancient ties with America and the Commonwealth still counted for a large percentage of its trade and economic activity. No sooner had Cameron announced the victory of the Leave side today, then messages of support began arriving from Commonwealth prime ministerspromising closer ties and trade agreements. Although Britain always has and will continue to be an astute trader and financier of economies throughout the world, it has some special opportunities with the USA and its old Commonwealth partners.

Contrary to the statements of the outgoing President Obama, many voices in the US political scene urge rapid conclusion of a US-UK free trade agreement. British workers have wages and benefits of the same order of magnitude as American workers, and unlike some nations, Britain has a sterling reputation for complying with obligations of its international trade agreements. It is free of many of the objections of larger more complex trade agreements than have drawn opposition in recent years.

Beyond that, there is an interesting development, which to date, has been under the radar of most international political observers, but which now has been given a green light by yesterday’s and today’s events. This is the growing movement for closer ties between Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK, the so-called CANZUK nations. A Change.org petition calling for bureaucracy-free movement between those 4 nations recently gained over 100,000 signatures in a few months without any financial backing or big names in support. Boris Johnson, the flamboyant ex-mayor of London, and now victorious leader of the Leave movement in the Brexit referendum, has endorsed CANZUK free movement as a near term goal.

Beyond free movement, commentators such as Canadian publisher Conrad Black, and British economist Andrew Lilico, have called for some form of confederation of the CANZUK nations. As a superior alternative to the European Union, such a confederation would be a globe-spanning advanced technological, economic and military power bigger than Germany or Japan, and whose 4 members have individually been Americas most constant and capable allies. Unlike many so-called “allies”, when America has asked for help, these usually have shown up with soldiers, ships and planes. If such a plan went ahead, America could end up with the kind of partner it had always hoped the EU would be but which never showed up in reality. Brexit is a good thing even on its own terms. However, if it became the starting point of such a development, it could bring much much more for its own members and for the USA.

James C. Bennett is a writer and consultant and author, most recently of “A Time for Audacity: New Options Beyond Europe”.