There’s a popular version of the shell game played on video boards in sports stadiums across the country.

An object is placed under one of three hats or helmets, and they’re shuffled around. Just when you think you’re convinced you’ve got the right one, the movement starts again.

That’s what Major League Soccer expansion has been like in the last couple of years: a game of constantly shifting parts and players, with a few surprises along the way.

Since MLS announced in January 2017 that 12 ownership groups — San Diego’s FS Investors among them — applied for four expansion spots that would grow the league to 28 teams by 2022, key decisions have been made and some city’s prospects have soared or faltered.


Two cities already have received the best news: Cincinnati is slated to begin MLS play in 2019, followed by Nashville in 2020.

Austin, Texas, which wasn’t among the original dozen bidders, now appears to be getting a new team by 2021 after MLS allowed the current Columbus owner to start a new franchise in Austin when he agreed to sell the Crew to Ohio ownership.

That appears to leave one remaining immediate expansion opportunity for about a half-dozen contenders, including San Diego, though MLS already has shown that nothing about its future plans are written in ink.

On Tuesday, when city residents go to the polls, they have the opportunity to support the SoccerCity initiative (Measure E) that would allow FS Investors to lease land at the current SDCCU Stadium site in Mission Valley and build, among other projects, a 22,000-seat stadium for an MLS team that could be expanded for SDSU football.


Supporters of San Diego State have a competing initiative, SDSU West (Measure G), in which they would buy the land from the city and construct, along with other projects, a 35,000-seat venue for Aztecs football. Backers of the initiative have said the school would seek to partner with parties interested in bringing MLS to San Diego.

The initiative with the most votes wins, provided it receives at least 50-percent support. If neither reaches the threshold, the decision-making about the stadium land goes back to City Hall.

Is San Diego guaranteed an expansion franchise if Measure E passes? Is MLS doomed here if E fails? If SDSU prevails, will it get a shot to woo the league and other soccer investors?

The entity that might best provide those answers isn’t talking.


MLS officials did not respond to interview requests this week from the Union-Tribune.

The only hint of what the league is thinking came in an interview that MLS President and Deputy Commissioner Mark Abbott did with Fox 5 San Diego in October.

“One thing we like about the SoccerCity initiative,” Abbott said, “is that it has an MLS ownership group already associated with it, that’s backing it, that’s very enthusiastic about joining MLS, and that’s already been approached by our league as a qualified ownership group.

“We find that we’re the most successful in a model where the ownership group of the club is also the ownership group of the stadium, as opposed to being a tenant or third-party tenant to the stadium.”


As San Diego ponders the future of pro soccer here, other cities have their MLS hopes while dealing with significant obstacles.

Detroit once was considered a front-runner in the current round of MLS expansion, and was named in December 2017 among the league’s four finalists that included Nashville, Cincinnati and Sacramento.

It has a powerful bidding ownership group that includes two NBA owners — Tom Gore (Detroit Pistons) and Dan Gilbert (Cleveland Cavaliers). The initial bid to MLS included a $1 billion complex on a former jail site that included a 23,000-seat open-air stadium.

But the ownership ultimately killed that idea, and after joining forces with the Ford family, which owns the Detroit Lions, they announced last spring they wanted to retrofit Ford Field with a retractable roof to meet the desire of MLS to play on grass in open-air venues.


MLS Commissioner Don Garber expressed disappointment, and any chances of warming up to that idea were eliminated in October when the Detroit group announced that the retrofit wouldn’t be feasible.

The Motor City has to go back to the drawing board.

St. Louis already has done that.

A city known for its depth of soccer culture and history, St. Louis appeared to have its bid to get MLS erased when, in April 2017, voters rejected $60 million in public funding for a soccer stadium. (The measure was defeated by 3,200 votes.)


Then, in late September — seemingly out of the blue — the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported talks had resumed between MLS officials and Missouri Gov. Mike Parson’s office.

A new prospective ownership group — led by women — was revealed. The lead player is Carolyn Kindle Betz, senior vice president of rental car company Enterprise Holdings, and the granddaughter of its founder. She’s joined by six other female members of Enterprise’s prominent Taylor family and Jim Kavanaugh, CEO of World Wide Technology, who was involved in the original bid.

The new St. Louis group is looking at the same site as the previous one — land near downtown’s Union Station that currently is occupied by a freeway off-ramp.

How the stadium would be paid for — and if any public money would be required — has not been disclosed.


Sacramento, which has consistently supported its United Soccer League team — Republic FC averaged more than 11,000 in 2018 — has seemed to take the expansion snubs the hardest.

California’s capital city already appeared to have a leg up on most bidders because the Sacramento City Council approved funding in November 2016 for a soccer stadium in the historic Railyards district.

But it had another problem.

Ninety miles east of the Pacific Ocean, it lacked a “whale” — a truly wealthy investor who could come up with an initial expenditure of $400 million, including expansion fees and stadium costs.


The Sacramento Bee added intrigue to the story when it acquired in June, through public records requests, correspondence between public officials and prospective ultra-rich investors.

Among the prospects were former Sacramento Kings player Omri Casspi and a couple of East Coast real estate magnates. But the most coveted was Southern California billionaire Ron Burkle, who owns a share of the NHL’s Pittsburgh Penguins and previously considered buying the Sacramento Kings.

Soccer supporters were giddy when Burkle visited Sacramento in March, toured the possible stadium site and attended a Kings game.

However, little fresh news about Sacramento’s prospects surfaced over the summer and fall, and when MLS made the decision to let Columbus Crew owner Anthony Precourt have a new franchise in Austin, the feeling in Sacramento seemed to be that it was a bridesmaid again.


Reflective of the city’s sentiment, Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg wrote to Garber in December 2017 with a plea: “Please don’t put Sacramento back in the larger pile. We have earned a different consideration. I will deliver for MLS and Sacramento if you give me and us the chance.”

Among those handicapping MLS expansion, there seems to be a new front-runner: Phoenix.

Much like Nashville in the early going, Phoenix wasn’t lauded as often as other cities, despite boasting a diverse population that is the largest among the 12 original bidders.

The growing flame in Phoenix’s bid has come from Phoenix Rising FC, a successful USL franchise. It has three big factors in its favor: a deep-pockets investor, Chinese hotel magnate Alex Cheng; a site chosen near Scottsdale for a 21,000-seat venue; and stadium financing secured through Goldman Sachs.


When the Rising group thought that perhaps MLS wasn’t taking it seriously enough, it showed up at MLS headquarters in July to further make its pitch.

What’s not to like? Well, when the Rising unveiled its stadium plans in March, there was one notable omission: a roof. MLS plays a nine-month season that runs straight through the summer. Average daily temperature in Phoenix in July: 106.

Populous, the stadium designer, noted ample shade from canopies and waterfalls at the entrance, but those won’t help the players. Could they solve that with three months of road games?

It’s clear San Diego’s competitors for a spot in MLS have strengths and weaknesses. How the league ultimately judges those may very well depend on the answers it first gets from San Diego.


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tod.leonard@sduniontribune.com; Twitter: @sdutleonard