Apple isn't going to roll out a revamped Mac desktop anytime soon, because you wouldn't buy one anyway, analysts say.

Tough economic times, a shrinking desktop market and strong notebook sales make the idea of a sexy, aluminum Mac Mini an unwise investment for

Apple, said Trip Chowdhry, a Global Equities Research analyst.

"In this environment where nobody is buying anything and you come out with a kick-ass product, you might get a lot of wows and woos, but that does not convert into sales," Chowdhry said. "So that's a wasted effort."

Apple's

Mac desktop line is conspicuously overdue for a refresh. Typically, these computers receive at least an incremental upgrade (i.e., minor improvements to processor, memory, storage) every seven months.

However, both the Mac Mini and Mac Pro haven't received an update in well over a year, and the current iMac is 10 months old.

Apple's secretive business strategies and company culture are unconventional, to say the least, but it appears the state of the PC industry —

combined with the economic downturn — is forcing the corporation to conform.

Richard Shim, an analyst at research firm IDC, said

U.S. desktop sales shrank about 8 percent last year, dropping from 34.2

million desktop shipments in 2007 to 31.4 million units in

2008. And worldwide, PC shipments shrank about 6 percent, from 153.6

million units shipped in 2007 to 144.9 million in 2008, Shim said.

On top of that, Apple's MacBook sales are skyrocketing, growing 71 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, the company's desktop sales declined 25 percent year-over-year, according to Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's chief financial officer.

"IMac sales went to hell in December," said Charlie Wolf, a Needham & Company analyst.

So even though numerous Apple insiders blurted rumors about a redesigned Mac Mini due for an early 2009 release, Apple is likely waiting for a better time to roll out a makeover for this long-neglected device, as well as for the iMac line. And that makes sense, because form-factor upgrades draw in the most sales, Wolf said.

With all that said, Chowdhry estimates that 2010 would be a more reasonable year for Apple to release any form-factor upgrades for its desktop line, including the Mac Mini.

As for incremental upgrades, Chowdhry predicted the Mac Pro and iMac will likely receive a minor boost sometime in June, in time for the back-to-school season.

Photo: SteveLyon/Flickr

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