Even before the Collins statement, few Republicans were willing to predict its passage before a September 30 procedural deadline for enactment on a party-line basis. Not President Trump, who seemed resigned to its failure during an interview on an Alabama radio show. Not Senator Orrin Hatch, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, who told reporters it would be “nearly impossible” to pass Graham-Cassidy moments before he convened the lone hearing that Congress plans to hold on the bill. And not Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who was silent on the question of whether the proposal would even receive a vote on the Senate floor.

Written by Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, the bill would cap Medicaid spending and convert about $1.2 trillion in funding for Obamacare over the next decade into block grants for states, which would have broad latitude to opt out of the law’s core insurance regulations. Graham and Cassidy have pitched it as a federalist approach to health care, allowing states to design health-care systems that best fit their populations and their political leanings. But it has run into overwhelming opposition from virtually the entire health-care industry, and on Monday senators witnessed the emotions of the debate first-hand as more than 100 protesters—some who have disabilities and were dragged away in wheelchairs—were arrested at the outset of the Finance Committee’s hearing.

Most ominously for Graham and Cassidy, their bill has yet to overcome the underlying divide that has stymied Republican repeal proposals for months. The two senators had earlier boasted that they were “inside the five-yard line” and had 47, 48, even 49 of the 50 Republican votes they need to pass their plan. But they’ve been essentially stuck for more than a week. Graham failed to win over his close friend McCain, who officially announced his opposition over the GOP’s rushed process on Friday after tanking an earlier repeal plan in July.

Paul has steadfastly denounced the bill from the right, calling it “fake repeal” that merely reshuffles Obamacare spending from blue states to red ones. After signaling that he might be open to negotiations over the weekend, Paul on Monday rejected a revised version that would make it easier for states to wriggle free of the law’s insurance regulations, including the central prohibition on insurers charging higher rates to and imposing lifetime limits on people with preexisting conditions. The Kentucky conservative said on CNN he’d only support the bill if its block grants—the central feature, according to Graham and Cassidy—were removed.

And on Monday, Collins confirmed she was equally out of reach despite the fact that the revised bill offered Maine significantly more money than the original version. “It’s not for Susan, it’s for the Mainers,” Cassidy told The Washington Post about the changes, which critics promptly likened to a bribe. Collins had opposed each of the GOP repeal proposals and said Sunday in television interviews that it was “difficult to envision” a scenario in which she would vote yes on the Graham-Cassidy plan. And then there was Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who has given no indication of which way she’s leaning but who, like Collins, opposed the previous Republican bills. Graham and Cassidy made a transparent, even blatant, attempt to win Murkowski’s vote by steering money back to Alaska in the new version of the bill they released Monday morning.