This coming basketball season there will be nine head coaches starting new jobs with major-conference programs. That number reflects a normal amount of turnover in the profession (the average yearly figure this century is a little over 10), and it begs one question: How will the new guys do?

One thing to keep in mind is that it's difficult to make the NCAA tournament in your first season at a new job with a major-conference program. Last season, just two coaches pulled off that trick: Brad Underwood at Oklahoma State and Bryce Drew at Vanderbilt.

A lot can happen between now and the 2018 NCAA tournament, naturally, but the recent past does suggest that just two or three of this season's major-conference rookie coaches will go dancing. Here are all nine new head coaches, listed in the sequence in which I expect their teams to finish 2017-18 in a hypothetical ranking of all of Division I:

Archie Miller, Indiana Hoosiers

Thomas Bryant, OG Anunoby and James Blackmon Jr. all elected to leave early, while Robert Johnson chose to draw out this suspense as long as possible before announcing this week that he will return to Bloomington. Last week he was reported to be returning, but then the senior-to-be tweeted that, no, he's still making up his mind.

As a result, Miller will have a fair amount of experience on hand. Former starter Collin Hartman will be back after missing all of last season because of injury, and also returning will be Josh Newkirk, Juwan Morgan, De'Ron Davis and Devonte Green. Miller additionally held on to the three-player freshman class that former coach Tom Crean signed, including top-100 wing Justin Smith.

The Hoosiers received their fair share of criticism in recent years for allegedly lackadaisical defense, and while no one expects that to change overnight, don't be shocked if the defensively renowned new coach makes great statistical strides in that department right away by simply lowering IU's foul rate.

Mike Boynton, Oklahoma State Cowboys

Boynton was an assistant at South Carolina (his alma mater), Stephen F. Austin and Oklahoma State before being named to the top job in Stillwater. His first act as head coach was to fly to Miami to confirm the commitment of top-100 combo guard Zack Dawson to the program.

Dawson, Brandon Averette, Cal State Northridge graduate transfer Kendall Smith or another point guard to be named later will have an opportunity to shine right away, because Jawun Evans left after his sophomore season to enter the NBA draft. The good news for Boynton is that Jeffrey Carroll returns after a junior season in which he posted numbers surprisingly similar to what Josh Jackson was doing at Kansas. Carroll will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance without teammates like Evans and Phil Forte (who was a senior last season), but there's no questioning his ability.

Carroll and Mitchell Solomon will be the returning starters on a team that also will feature Dawson, Averette, Smith, St. John's transfer Yankuba Sima, Cameron McGriff, Davon Dillard, Tavarius Shine and Lindy Waters III. Evans and Forte will be missed, but Boynton could have enough talent on hand to make a run at the NCAA tournament in his first season.

Cuonzo Martin, Missouri Tigers

Give Martin credit: It's hard to imagine a new coach making more of a splash than signing the No. 1 player in the country right off the bat. Michael Porter Jr. will play what is likely to be his only college season for Missouri, and expectations are, to say the least, high. Martin has compared Porter to both Kevin Durant and Kevin Garnett. (No pressure, young man.)

Porter won't be the only new arrival in Columbia this season. Jeremiah Tilmon and Blake Harris are both top-100 freshmen, and Canisius graduate transfer Kassius Robertson is a career 40 percent 3-point shooter who averaged 16 points per contest for the Golden Griffins last season. Plus Martin just got a commitment from Jontay Porter, a top-30 junior (and Michael's younger brother) who may yet reclassify and play in 2017-18. Now consider that Missouri's already a team that returns no fewer than four starters: Kevin Puryear, Terrence Phillips, Jordan Geist and Jordan Barnett.

The Tigers were just 2-16 in the SEC last season, and the per-possession turnaround required for an NCAA tournament bid would be immense. That being said, the year-to-year programmatic 180 is already in full swing.

Brad Underwood, Illinois Fighting Illini

Underwood carries the hard-won credibility of a coach who just led Oklahoma State to one of the best offensive seasons of 2016-17. Then again, the head coach did have Jawun Evans as his point guard, and the Cowboys made 41 percent of their 3s in Big 12 play. Neither Evans-level play at the point nor a high degree of accuracy from the perimeter will be givens this coming season.

What does appear to be a given, conversely, is a relatively thin rotation. Your leading returning scorers are Leron Black and Jalen Coleman-Lands. They'll be joined by Michael Finke, Kipper Nichols and Te'Jon Lucas (who showed flashes of being a highly disruptive defender as a freshman last season). True, Underwood signed the reigning Illinois Mr. Basketball in Mark Smith, and that does bode well for the future.

Plus Illinois is in the running, albeit with a number of other programs, for two graduate transfers: Akoy Agau of Georgetown and Mark Alstork of Wright State. Nevertheless, the Illini appear to be a year away, even factoring in Underwood's prowess on offense.

Patrick Ewing, Georgetown Hoyas

New head coach Ewing has said of his roster that "we need everything," but I'm not sure things are really that bad. After all, even in a season that culminated in the head coach being fired, the Georgetown defense was better than average in Big East play.

Jessie Govan, Marcus Derrickson, Jonathan Mulmore, Jagan Mosely, Tre Campbell and Kaleb Johnson all return from that team, and Ewing will add freshmen Jahvon Blair and Antwan Walker. In addition, the Hoyas are still in the running for top-50 point guard Tremont Waters. Georgetown isn't going to make a run at the Big East title by any means, but leave room in your imagination for a respectable showing from this bunch -- particularly if the Hoyas cut way down on their turnovers compared to a year ago.

Kevin Keatts, North Carolina State Wolfpack

Keatts will face the ACC with Abdul-Malik Abu, Torin Dorn, Lennard Freeman, Markell Johnson, Baylor graduate transfer Al Freeman ... and that's about where the certainties end. NC State is waiting to hear whether Terry Henderson will be granted a sixth year of eligibility. Meanwhile Ted Kapita is reportedly leaning toward staying in the draft, and Omer Yurtseven also has yet to make a decision.

With most or even all of the above-named players, Keatts will need to take a long, hard look at the defense. Last season the Wolfpack allowed 1.18 points per possession in ACC play, easily the worst figure in the league. A few more stops could go a long way in Raleigh.

Mike Hopkins, Washington Huskies

Now that Markelle Fultz has moved on to the next level (and Michael Porter Jr. has elected to rescind his earlier commitment to Washington to attend Missouri instead), Hopkins is looking at a rather seasoned group of veterans for 2017-18. Notwithstanding top-100 freshman Jaylen Nowell, Washington will feature returnees David Crisp, Noah Dickerson, Matisse Thybulle and Carlos Johnson.

Replacing Fultz is no small task, of course, but one development that could help offset his departure would be an increase in 3-point makes. Last season the Huskies connected on just 31 percent of their tries from beyond the arc in Pac-12 play, the worst such figure in the league. Crisp and Thybulle in particular have the ability to give Washington more scoring from the perimeter.

Will Wade, LSU Tigers

Antonio Blakeney entered the draft, and reserves Kieran Hayward and Branden Jenkins elected to transfer. Other than those three, Wade will have just about every player who finished last season for LSU.

Which raises the question of what, exactly, that means for 2017-18. This was a team that went just 2-16 in the SEC, and Blakeney was the Tigers' leading scorer by far. Wade says he has been impressed in the early going by veterans such as Duop Reath, Skylar Mays and Aaron Epps. LSU had possibly the single-worst defense of any team in major-conference play last season, so even with several returning starters, Wade has his work cut out for him.

Wyking Jones, California Golden Bears

Cal played some very good defense against Pac-12 opponents last season, but now Ivan Rabb, Jabari Bird, Sam Singer and Grant Mullins have all departed. In addition, Charlie Moore and Kameron Rooks elected to transfer out of the program.

That leaves Jones with Kingsley Okoroh, Don Coleman and not much more. Any success the new coach achieves in Berkeley will be emphatically free of "winning with someone else's players" variety sniping.