Jun 16, 2014

ERBIL, Iraq — While moving among Erbil, Mosul, Kirkuk and Tikrit over the course of four days, I chatted with tribal members, Baathists, former resistance fighters and Naksibendis who joined the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS) in what has become a Sunni uprising. These actors appear to be a coalition of revenge in a conflict fast assuming solid sectarian colors, but in reality they are a coalition of opposites and of strange bedfellows who are bound to go after one another even without the end of Nouri al-Maliki's rule over Iraq. This is the view of Atheel al-Nujaifi, the governor of Ninevah province, who fled the ISIS takeover. He told Al-Monitor that a re-enactment of the Syrian scenario is not far off.

I spoke with Nujaifi in Erbil, where he had taken refuge. According to him, the way to confront ISIS should not be through yet another sectarian intervention, but with a Sunni approach. The antidote to ISIS is not Shiism, but Sunnism, he believes. Nujaifi has given up any hope of Baghdad restoring order to the country and is now counting on the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

I began the interview with the most critical questions: Who captured Mosul — ISIS or local tribes? Can we say ISIS is the leading actor? Nujaifi replied, “First, ISIS captured some districts of Mosul. When the Iraqi soldiers abandoned their posts and ran off, some tribes and various resistance groups that had fought against the American occupation after 2003 took over other parts of Mosul. They didn’t join ISIS, but ISIS is the largest [group] among them. The lead actor on the first day was ISIS, but on Thursday [June 12] ISIS issued a declaration it called the Medina document. This document said no group other than ISIS will be allowed to operate and that they will fight [those who do].”

I heard a great deal of speculation from the people I spoke with on the way to Mosul. One soldier said, “Behind ISIS is Izzed Ibrahim al-Duri, Saddam Hussein's number two man, Baathists and Saddam’s soldiers.” Nujaifi dismissed this assertion. “I don’t think so. I read a statement by Izzed al-Duri when he said they will fight all Safavi [Iranian] and takfiri groups. We know he is referring to ISIS when he says ‘takfiri groups.’ I don’t think they will be working together.’’

In that case, should we dismiss suggestions that Duri and the Baathist are playing roles? Many people believe Baathists are using ISIS. According to Nujaifi, “No, they [ISIS and Baathists] both had roles. When soldiers deserted, these groups took over their turf, but that doesn’t mean they have joined ranks with ISIS. ISIS and the Baathists are on different tracks. They are not the same and can’t be.”