By Jared Young (@jaredeyoung)

The ball is placed on painted grass and a tall bright goalkeeper strides backward toward the goal. Now lunging forward the leg swings like a pendulum through the ball sending it bravely toward the sky. The onlookers lift their gaze as the ball reaches the peak of its flight. Two gladiators lock limbs below, jostling for position. They leap together in an effort to possess the falling ball. There is a deflection and the gladiators separate. They rejoin the play.

Long kicks by goalkeepers are a staple in soccer matches and they are a beautiful sight to behold, but that doesn't mean they are a good idea. By the end of this article I hope to convince you of that fact, even if the data isn't entirely perfect.

It’s long bothered me that goalkeepers always launch the ball into what seemed to be at best a coin flip proposition. A team has the ball (the most valuable thing on the field) and then they decide to just sling it up in the air to chance. Why does that make sense? The conventional wisdom is that 1) it’s better to get the ball as far up the field as possible and 2) even if the first attempt doesn't work the next possession will still be closer to the goal. These two elements of said conventional wisdom turn out to be true, but it’s the coin flip that becomes the glaring issue.