On what is sure to be one of the slower weekends of the year, first place will go to one of two holdovers, while the only new wide release is a low budget horror film, unlikely to crack $10M.

The first holdover is Maze Runner: The Death Cure, which seems set for a hard second weekend drop following a decent start of $24M. The first Maze Runner dipped just 46% in its second weekend, while The Scorch Trials fell 53%. The long delay and “final chapter” element imply that the opening weekend would have bigger fan anticipation, and thus a drop of closer to 60% seems likely. A 57% drop would put it at around $10.6M, which seems likely.

Jumanji may be able to reclaim first this weekend, joining a rare club of titles which held first for several weekends, lost it, and then took it back. Not to mention, taking first place in a seventh weekend is nothing short of a miracle.

The sole new release of the weekend is Lionsgate’s Winchester, the quote-unquote “based on a true story” supernatural thriller, starring Helen Mirren and produced for a surprisingly low $3.5M. The historical premise seems like an interesting idea for a scary movie, but the advertising has sold little more than generic ghostly jumpscares and startling noises. With no reviews as of 11PM EST on Thursday night, don’t expect much from this one. Look for an opening in the high single digits.

The Greatest Showman will receive an IMAX release this weekend, which should help keep the film in the top 5 yet again.

Once again, a slew of Academy nominees will be expanding. The Shape of Water will increase its total to 2,341, while Three Billboards is going into 1,726. Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour are both receiving expansions, and will go into roughly 1,100 and 1,400 theaters respectively. One mild surprise was Coco, which will be re-entering over 1,000 theaters, bringing its total to over 1,600. Normally when a studio does something like this it’s to top some milestone (such as $100M or $200M), but Coco already hit the $200M mark about two weeks ago, making this a bit of a headscratcher.

Predictions

Jumanji – $12.5M Maze Runner – $11.0M Winchester – $8.5M The Greatest Showman – $7.7M The Post – $5.8M Hostiles – $5.5M