Politicans on both sides have pressed the military to explore options taking direct action against al-Assad. W.H. in political bind over Syria

President Barack Obama has talked tough in trying to dissuade Syrian President Bashar Assad from using chemical weapons against the rebels in Syria’s civil war, warning it would be a “red line” and a “game changer.”

Now, Assad has called his bluff, and Obama wants time and space to decide what comes next.


The White House said in a letter to Congress on Thursday that U.S. intelligence officials believe “with varying degrees of confidence” that Assad has used the nerve agent sarin, based on the results of “physiological samples.” But the administration did not place the U.S. on the brink of military action. Instead, it called for a “comprehensive United Nations investigation” and the need to “establish all the facts” before Washington decides how to proceed.

( Also on POLITICO: Senators say 'red line' crossed)

A White House official told reporters that “all options are on the table in terms of our response,” but did not want to “get into hypotheticals at this juncture.” The official stressed the need for “a strong, firm, evidentiary basis to inform the way we consult our friends and allies.”

Without mentioning it by name, the official invoked the run-up to the invasion of Iraq as a reason to be absolutely certain that Assad has actually used the sarin gas.

“Given our own history of intelligence assessments, especially given intelligence assessments related to weapons of mass destruction, it’s very important we are presenting the public with information that is airtight, presented in a public and credible fashion.” The “red line” threshold demands it, the official said, “given how serious this issue is. Nobody should have any mistake about what our red line is.”

Skeptics in Washington, however, worried that not acting or acting too slowly might not only embarrass the U.S. if it backs away from its earlier rhetoric, but lead to more atrocities by Assad.

“I am deeply concerned with reports that further confirmation of use may be outsourced to the United Nations,” said House Speaker John Boehner. “If Assad sees any equivocation on the red line, it will embolden his regime.”

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, earlier voiced the same worry.

The “red line” had clearly been crossed and “action must be taken to prevent larger scale use,” she said. “Syria has the ability to kill tens of thousands with its chemical weapons. The world must come together to prevent this by unified action which results in the secure containment of Syria’s significant stockpile of chemical weapons.”

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon (R-Calif.), who called Assad’s attack “an astounding violation of human rights,” asked why Obama had given warnings to Syria if the U.S. isn’t prepared to enforce them.

"I do question the utility of red lines if they lack clearly delineated boundaries and meaningful consequences,” McKeon said. “I am confident the president does not wish for America's resolve to be called into question.”

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told reporters traveling with him in the Middle East that he would be prepared to give Obama military options “at such time as the president requires options,” but he also stressed the obligation for the U.S., “including with all key partners and allies,” to investigate.

Hagel recently deployed about 200 U.S. troops to Jordan, including some from the headquarters of the 1st Armored Division at Fort Bliss, Texas, to “create additional capacity” to "potentially form a joint task force for military operations, if ordered."

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) seized on Thursday’s letter as the latest reason for the U.S. to intervene in Syria, quoting Obama’s own rhetoric on Syria.

“It’s pretty obvious that the red line has been crossed,” McCain told reporters on Capitol Hill. He repeated his call for the U.S. to “provide a safe area, to establish a no-fly zone” and “provide weapons to people in the resistance who we trust.”

McCain, Sen. Lindsey Graham and others have said the U.S. can help bring the Syrian conflict to a swifter end by denying Assad his air force and attacking some of his heavy units — “Ground their planes and shoot a few of their tanks and this thing ends very quickly,” Graham said on CNN.

Other lawmakers, including Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, have asked commanders to explore options short of a full intervention, such as using the Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries now stationed over the border in Turkey to enforce a “safe zone” in northern Syria where people could take refuge.

The Pentagon’s top leaders have previously warned that intervening in Syria might be bloody, messy and lead to wider chaos in the Middle East.

Hagel and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey warned a Senate committee last week that “once you’re in, you can’t unwind it.” And Hagel said: “You can’t say, ‘It’s not going as well we wanted it go, so let’s get out.’ I think we could — if we didn’t get into this the right way, if we did get into it, there could be more bloodshed. There could be more humanitarian disaster. Maybe not.”

Washington Rep. Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, urged caution in making hasty judgments.

"First, as they emphasized it is not yet confirmed and second, even if it is confirmed we need to be very thoughtful in what our response is," Smith told POLITICO in a brief interview.

"The president said it was a red line. What the president never said was what that meant exactly," Smith said. "I would urge caution in terms of leaping to any sort of military conclusion. Whatever it is we decide to do it has to be effective. It's a very difficult situation so the biggest thing I will say is I urge caution in responding, even if this is confirmed. We've got to be smart about it and not make the situation worse."

Dempsey warned senators in last week’s hearing that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East means every actor has a different interest in Syria — Turkey worries about safe havens for Kurds it considers terrorists; Jordan worries about refugees; Israel worries about chemical weapons and heavy air defense systems falling into the hands of Lebanese Hezbollah. Iran wants its surrogate to prevail; and the Gulf states want to influence a potential new Syrian regime.

“This is what makes this situation as complicated as any on the planet and there is no simple solution to that situation,” Dempsey said. “And that’s what makes this complicated.”

This article first appeared on POLITICO Pro at 12:17 p.m. on April 25, 2013.