Their best hope could be for the economy to finally gain some traction on its own. GOP to fix the economy? Good luck.

American voters on Tuesday sharply rejected President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party and voiced a strong desire for a fresh approach to lift stagnant wages and reverse a deep and abiding sense of national economic anxiety.

There is a very good chance these voters will be disappointed once again.


Republicans gained full control of Congress and swept to surprising wins in governor’s mansions in deep-blue states in the Northeast. But for the most part, GOP candidates staked their wins not on a clear economic message but on frustration and anger at Obama. And even if Republicans manage to overcome internal fissures and unify around a set of economic proposals next year — a big open question — there is only a limited chance that any of them will have the kind of profound impact voters might reward in 2016.

Approving the Keystone XL pipeline won’t do it, analysts say, nor will killing the medical device tax under Obamacare. Corporate tax reform might help, but getting there will be very tricky with Democrats insisting on fresh revenue through loophole closing. Sealing trade deals in Europe and Asia, something the White House very much wants, may help in the long term while showing little immediate impact. And liberal Democrats will continue to fight against the deals. Populist Republicans might join them.

(Also on POLITICO: Obama defiant after GOP wave)

In short, Republicans on Tuesday bought themselves a big share of a structurally troubled American economy but may lack the tools needed to fix it. Their best hope, in fact, could be for the economy to finally gain some traction on its own, putting the GOP in position to claim credit.

“What they would need to do to move the needle on the economy is going to be very, very difficult,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in New York. “They would need to change incentives in the system that favor short-term earnings over longer-term investment, and that’s just not going to happen. The only thing they can really hope for is that the economy is better in two years and they can say they had something to do with it.”

The challenge to Republicans is clear. Voters delivered an unambiguous message that they think the economy still stinks despite headlines showing the jobless rate at 5.9 percent and growth exceeding 3 percent, better than most of the developed world. Exit polls showed the economy as the dominant issue, with 44 percent of voters citing it as the top concern. A strong majority of 58 percent described the economy as either treading water or getting worse.

The reasons for this are fairly clear.

( Also on POLITICO: The worst predictions of 2014)

Inflation-adjusted incomes for the middle class have not gone up since 1999. The wealthiest slice of Americans — the famed 1 percent — received 95 percent of all income gains in the first three years of this recovery. And part of the reason for the decline in the jobless rate is a reduction in the labor force to its smallest size in three decades.

These are big, tectonic issues with no quick fixes, and they now land squarely in the laps of House Speaker John Boehner and Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, the likely next Senate majority leader.

Republicans on Tuesday suggested they were very aware of their newfound responsibilities. In Colorado, GOP Rep. Cory Gardner, who defeated incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Udall, warned that Republicans could suffer stinging defeats in two years, when the electoral map favors Democrats, if the party does not rack up accomplishments on the economy.

“It was not a message for Republicans or against Democrats — but a warning,” Gardner said of the 2014 election in remarks circulated by GOP operatives on Wednesday. “A warning to all those who fail to courageously act on our nation’s greatest challenges.”

( Also on POLITICO: What did we learn from 2014?)

But acting will be difficult for a party that does not even agree on what those challenges are.

Some in the party want to move on immigration reform as a means to both attract a more diverse group of voters and boost the economy by expanding the labor force.

But firebrands and would-be 2016 presidential hopefuls including Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Ted Cruz of Texas will make cutting an immigration deal with Obama difficult if not impossible. Obama’s plans to announce unilateral actions to deal with the current 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. could further poison the waters.

Republicans mostly agree on the need to junk the current corporate Tax Code but not on whether to do reform without including personal income taxes, which hit many small-business owners.

Democrats and possibly even some populist Republicans will most likely want to include a “bank tax” to ensure that big financial institutions don’t see massive windfall gains from a lower overall rate. Such a proposal could kill a deal for many mainstream Republicans.

Getting a tax package to Obama — even one he might be tempted to veto for not cracking down enough on what Democrats call “tax expenditures” — will be exceedingly difficult.

Trade might be an area where the GOP and Obama can deal. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid steadfastly refused to put so-called fast track trade authority for the president up for a vote. Such authority is viewed as essential to finishing big trade deals with the European Union and Asian nations.

McConnell presumably would reverse Reid’s stance. Obama said in post-election remarks Wednesday that he was eager to work with Republicans on areas of common ground on the economy. “We can surely find ways to work together on issues where there’s broad agreement among the American people,” he said. “So I look forward to Republicans putting forward their governing agenda.”

But it’s not clear Democrats would join Republicans to break a filibuster on the trade promotion issue. One of the few strong economic messages for Democrats in 2014 was against corporate outsourcing. And support for free trade is getting weaker in the Democratic Party, not stronger.

Democrats seem likely to try to block most GOP initiatives on the economy to deny Republicans victories ahead of 2016. And party officials point to victories for state-level minimum wage increases across the nation and widespread polling support for “equal pay” measures for women as indicators that their economic approach is more popular, even if their candidates weren’t this time around.

This could all leave Republicans with one main fallback strategy: Demonstrate that Congress can actually work without shutdowns and debt limit fights while also sending a pile of relatively small-bore jobs bills to the president’s desk and dare him to veto them.

“There were a number of jobs bills that passed the House with overwhelming bipartisan support that never got anywhere with Reid and the Senate,” said Kevin Madden, a GOP strategist. “McConnell really wants to show he can get the Senate moving again and show Congress can work by getting stuff to the president’s desk and making the big story whether he signs things or not. Until now, we’ve never gotten to that part of the conversation.”

The other big Republican goal laid out in recent weeks by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and others is for the GOP to avoid damaging showdowns with the White House over funding the government or raising the debt limit. Current funding runs out next month. And the debt limit will have to be raised in the spring. Republican leadership should be able to engineer ways to avoid crises in both cases. McConnell was firm on this issue on Wednesday, promising he would make the Senate function. “We’re not going to be shutting down the government or defaulting on the national debt,” he said.

But there are no guarantees. Cruz has suggested he wants to bring the brash House GOP approach to the Senate and has not promised to even support McConnell for majority leader. And the election results giving Republicans a historic majority are not likely to suggest to the conservative base in the lower chamber that they should give ground to Obama on anything.

Still, economists say that if Republicans can avoid any self-inflicted wounds that could hurt the economy, some of the current woes leaving Americans sour and unhappy may ease on their own.

As the economy approaches full employment, most economists expect wages to begin to rise more substantially. Home values continue to improve; cheap gas prices are acting as a stealth stimulus for consumers. The GOP could theoretically win on the economy by not screwing things up too badly.

“The first rule for Republicans here should be ‘do no harm,’” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “They need to leave the Fed alone because it’s been the most important force aiding the economy. And stay away from the debt limit and shutdowns, which do real short-run damage to consumer and business confidence. “

If Republicans can do that, O’Sullivan said, they may find themselves reaping some electoral benefits in a 2016 environment that will be much more favorable to Democrats and their presidential year voting coalitions. “The trends for the next two years look pretty positive, “ he said. “Unless something unexpected comes along and screws everything up.”