New immigration system looks a lot like the old one

New immigration system looks a lot like the old one

It is, depending on who you listen to, one of the most dramatic revolutions in Britain's immigration system.

Or simply a re-branding of what we already have.

Some claim it will cause immigration to fall dramatically. Others say that the number of people coming into the UK might conceivably rise as a result of it.

There has always been much confusion about the immigration system and that is because, rather like Britain's benefits system, it is highly complex and highly contentious.

So let's try to strip away some of the nonsense claims and try to understand what the Home Office is proposing to do to Britain's rules on migration and visas and what that actually means in practice both for Britons and for those who want to come to work here.


With great fanfare the Home Secretary Priti Patel has now unveiled her plans for what she depicted as a wholesale reform of Britain's immigration system.

As of next year, when Britain's Brexit transition period is due to come to an end, those coming to this country from both the EU and from the rest of the world will encounter the same rules which determine whether they can come and work here.

This, in a sense, is perhaps the most important change.

Surinder Arora, chairman of Arora Group with 2,200 hospitality staff, says the new immigration plans leave him worried.

For decades Britain has had two systems - one for the EU and one for the rest. As of next year it will have one.

Given previously (and indeed currently, until the end of the transition period) EU citizens had free movement, that inevitably means it will become more difficult to migrate to this country from Europe.

There are all sorts of implications. It means more paperwork for those coming into the country and those hoping to employ them. It means immigrants from Europe will have to fulfil certain criteria, including having a job ready for them, having a certain level of skills, having a proficiency in English and earning a certain amount.

It means, in short, that coming to this country as a European citizen will become more difficult.

It also means that those without most of the above - a job offer, a high skill level and so on - will struggle to get in at all.

This is certainly a big shift.

There are certain allowances and clauses which should mitigate the problems this might cause to the NHS (nurses should still be able to come in relatively easily) and there is a route whereby highly skilled scientists can come into the country without a job offer.

But for many industries - one thinks most obviously of social care and hospitality, who relied in a big way on having a limitless supply of labour on the other side of the Channel - will struggle.

Some care homes, which are already run on wafer thin margins - will struggle to operate. Given the government has pledged to reform the care sector, but still has yet to explain how, this only adds to the already vertiginous pile of questions about what will really happen for this struggling but important sector.

Low-skilled migrants will be denied visas under new rules

Social care is hardly the only sector to face these kinds of problems. One might also pinpoint the construction sector, which has been heavily reliant on cheap labour from Eastern Europe, or the food industry.

Simply put, it will become much more difficult to bring in cheap labour from overseas.

So those workers will either have to be found in the UK labour market - which will not be easy given employment is already close to record highs - or they will have to be paid more. Which could put some companies out of business.

There is another concern - more mundane on the face of it but important nonetheless. Many companies which hitherto used EU workers but didn't have to bother with all that much paperwork will suddenly face an avalanche of extra compliance costs.

They will have to apply to get a licence as a registered sponsor for migrant workers - something that takes a few months.

Then when they want to hire from overseas there will be more paperwork to ensure those workers can get visas. They are likely to have to carry out an English test - though at the moment it's unclear whether that's something the government will do or whether it will leave it up to employers.

In short, there are lots of big questions that will have a big impact for employers - which is all very well but the government intends for the new system to be in place by the end of the year.

Bearing in mind it takes some months to hire people, that means companies need to have everything in place for this by September or October of this year - seven months away.

And the full Immigration White Paper hasn't even been published.

Given the last major immigration change took four years to be implemented, that is asking an awful lot both of government and of businesses and immigrants.

Given the changes are due to kick in at the same time as Britain's transition period comes to an end and new trade rules are due to kick in, the challenge looks to be of superhuman proportions.

Image: The immigration system is highly complex and highly contentious

None of this is to say the new system is unfair.

Most economists think that in many ways it looks like a reasonable system. And given some of the criteria for non-EU workers are actually a little looser than they were before, there is a chance it actually boosts immigration from outside Europe.

But here is where economics and immigration policy collide. Because actually the main thing driving immigration isn't really the nature of the visa regulations but the strength of the economy.

The main reason Britain had record immigration in recent years isn't the nature of the system but the fact that lots of people wanted to come and work in the UK, where growth was relatively robust, where there were plenty of jobs and where immigrants could expect to improve their standard of living.

So it's quite possible migration may be lower in future - but don't assume that's down to the system. It might just as easily be down to the strength or otherwise of the economy.

If, on the other hand, we get a post-Brexit boom, it's not implausible that net migration rises yet again. This is a crucial distinction. The system matters - but so too does the broader economic outlook.

And anyway, for all the fanfare, if you look at the bit of the migration system that the government has always controlled - which is to say the non-EU bit - it's not altogether clear the changes will make it all that different to how it was before.

Image: The new rules could affect the farming industry

This is not an Australian-style points system.

The whole point of Australia's immigration system is that immigrants don't have to come to the country with a job lined up provided they can demonstrate they meet some of the key criteria (and hence points).

In Britain's system you will still have to have a job to come to the country, unless you are one of the top scientists able to qualify for the special high-skilled route.

Indeed, in many senses the new immigration system looks a lot like the old one. Which is to say the 2008 migration white paper which the coalition and then Tory government inherited.

Theresa May made various small changes: trimming allowances in certain places, attempting to restrict graduates here, introducing a cap on skilled visa entrants there.

The new system strips out most of those changes leaving us with something that looks a lot like what we had before.