Insider: Chances the Colts' own free agents return in 2018

“I’m a realist,” Chris Ballard said late last month. “We have work to do. I think at every position, we have work to do.”

He’s right. In a week the Indianapolis Colts’ general manager and his staff will look to attack the holes that litter his roster. While Ballard has repeatedly stressed that the avenue in which he most prefers building his team is through the draft, free agency – which officially kicks off at 4 p.m. next Wednesday – will be used to supplement it. The Colts simply have too many areas of need, and too much cash on hand, to sit idly by.

What they won’t do, Ballard vows, is “pay a mid-tier player (top-tier) money,” as he noted at last month’s town hall. Last year was different, Ballard explained, as he just about remade the team’s entire starting defense in a few weeks’ time. Don’t expect the Colts to be as active a player on the free agent market this spring.

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First, there are in-house decisions to make. Here are the Colts’ own free agents, and their chances of returning:

Kicker Adam Vinatieri

Signed, sealed, delivered. Up next: His 23rd NFL season, and a few league records.

Chances he returns: 100 percent.

Running back Frank Gore

Ballard sat down with the 34-year-old running back after the season and informed him the Colts were going younger at the position. Gore intends on playing in 2018, his 14th NFL season, he just needs a suitor. If he lands one, he’ll need 76 yards to climb to fourth on the NFL’s all-time rushing list.

Chances he returns: 0 percent.

Wide receiver Donte Moncrief

Perhaps the most difficult decision the Colts will have to make. Moncrief is young (24), has the size quarterbacks love (6-2, 221 pounds) and has been productive at times (five straight games with a touchdown grab in the middle of the 2016 season). He’s also wildly inconsistent, drops the football too often, and has battled the injury bug for two straight seasons. Last fall, a contract year for Moncrief, he made just eight starts (falling behind Kamar Aiken on the depth chart at one point) and made just 26 catches. It was a disappointment any way you slice it.

“Whatever gonna happen, gonna happen,” Moncrief said late last season. “I’ve had a great time here, wish I could come back, hope I am back.”

It’s no secret his market value dipped last season. Maybe the Colts would be willing to lure Moncrief back to town on a one-year, prove-it deal. Maybe there’s another team out there willing to bet big on his undeniable talent. The Colts are in desperate need of receivers. This remains a tough one to call.

Chances he returns: 35 percent.

Cornerback Rashaan Melvin

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Colts’ 2017 season, Melvin is primed this spring to earn what he’s yet to in his six-team, five-year NFL odyssey: a massive payday. Melvin believes he deserves No. 1 cornerback dollars, and the Colts are willing to sit back and see if he can get it. “Do I like Rashaan Melvin? Absolutely I do,” Ballard said last week. “He’s a great kid, he battles, he works, he loves football. Would we like to get Melvin back? Yes. Will we for sure? Ah, we’ll see. We’ll see how the market plays out.”

It’s clear the Colts and Melvin aren’t nearing a deal. He’s one of the top cornerback options on the market. This likely comes down to money, money the Colts likely aren’t willing to spend.

Chances he returns: 25 percent.

Cornerback Pierre Desir

Overshadowed by the more productive Melvin, Desir nonetheless is coming off an impressive season that should earn him a shiny new contract. Signed just before the start of the regular season, Desir wound up starting six games and, by midseason, solidified his role as the team’s No. 2 corner. If the Colts do indeed let Melvin walk, signing Desir becomes a priority. At the moment, there’s not a player in the cornerback room under contract with more than two seasons experience.

Chances he returns: 60 percent.

Safety Darius Butler

A worthy choice for the Colts’ Man of the Year award, it looks like Butler’s six-year run in Indianapolis will come to a close. It became apparent last fall that Butler’s best days on the field are behind him.

Chances he returns: 10 percent.

Guard Jack Mewhort

A once-promising building block to the Colts’ perpetually-plagued offensive line, Mewhort’s now seen two consecutive seasons end on the injured reserve list, further muddying his future in Indianapolis. What is certain: Mewhort wants to return. What isn’t: Whether he can ever be the player the Colts hoped he would be. The knee issues that have dogged him since 2016 have clouded a once-easy call. A one-year deal that forces Mewhort to prove he can stay healthy might be the best fit for both sides.

Chances he returns: 70 percent.

Wide receiver Kamar Aiken

Aiken certainly didn’t have the season he – or the Colts – hoped for. He was signed last spring as a big body (he’s 6-2 and 216 pounds) Ballard hoped would not only produce in the red zone but push Moncrief to the next level. No dice. Aiken caught just 15 balls all year, and had more than one critical drop. Odds are long he returns, though the Colts’ glaring need at receiver could change that.

Chances he returns: 20 percent.

Outside linebacker Barkevious Mingo

He’ll never live up to the expectation that comes with being a sixth overall pick, as he was for the Browns back in 2013, but Mingo was productive for the Colts last season as a situational pass-rusher and capable fill-in after John Simon was lost to injury. Mingo had 44 tackles (five for a loss) to go with two sacks in 2017.

The question is whether he’ll fit in the Colts’ new 4-3 scheme. A few things on his side: He’s got the one trait coordinator Matt Eberflus wants – speed – and he’s a solid special teams player. Working against him: He’s not lining up at defensive end, so outside linebacker would be his only option, and his skillset doesn’t translate particularly well in a 4-3.

Chances he returns: 45 percent.

Quarterback Scott Tolzien

It’s very possible the last NFL throw Tolzien will ever make came in Week 1 back in Los Angeles, the opening stanza of the Colts’ disastrous campaign. With Andrew Luck on track to return to full health, backup Jacoby Brissett signed through 2019 and newcomer Brad Kaaya already in the building, Tolzien’s time in Indy has come to a close. The Colts will add another arm for training camp, but it won’t be Tolzien’s.

Chances he returns: 0 percent.

Inside linebacker Jon Bostic

Bostic’s time in Indy will come to an end after one season, as the team shifts into its new 4-3 scheme.

Chances he returns: 10 percent.

Tight end Brandon Williams

With Erik Swoope expected back in the fold in 2017, the Colts might be ready to move on from Williams in 2018. Solid as Jack Doyle’s backup last season, Williams only caught only 13 balls as the Colts’ struggled on offense week-in and week-out. It ended in scary fashion for Williams in Week 15 against Denver, when he suffered a concussion and was carted off the field on a stretcher. A player with a history of concussions, he wouldn’t play the rest of the year.

But beyond starter and Pro Bowler Jack Doyle, and No. 2 Swoope, the Colts are thin at tight end. They’ll need to add depth to the position somehow.

Chances he returns: 20 percent.

Call Star reporter Zak Keefer at (317) 444-6134 and follow him on Twitter: @zkeefer.