CHANDIGARH: Punjab will record highest decline in

in the region over the next two decades, followed by

and

, as per population projections made in the Economic Survey 2019.

Unless there is inward migration, Punjab population growth is estimated to be near zero by 2041. As per data tabled in Parliament, annual population growth rate will consistently drop in the region. From 1.39% recorded in 2011 in Punjab, it will come down to 0.15% in 2031-41. In Himachal, the growth rate will come down to 0.24% from 1.29% in 2011 and Haryana is expected to grow at 0.44% in the same period.

At present, the population growth is below 1% in Punjab and Himachal and 1.08% in Haryana. As per projections, Punjab will witness a decline in young population by 2041 and an increase in the number of elderly, 60 years and above.

The size of population in the age group 0-19 years will come down from 35.8% in 2011 to 21% in 2041 and the elderly population will double from 10.4% in 2011 to 20.6% in 2041 In Punjab. The growth in this age group will be 22% and 24.9% in Himachal and Haryana, respectively. The size of 5-14 year age group will drop sharply in Himachal and Punjab.

40% Punjab, Himachal Pradesh primary schools have less than 50 students

Steady decline in

and increase in life expectancy are key reasons for the trend and will lead to an increase in working age population and a drop in number of elementary school-going children.

This trend will have social and economic consequences. The government will have to rejig policies, particularly those pertaining to health care, elementary school facilities and retirement age.

Interestingly, Punjab and Himachal are among the states having more than 40% elementary schools with fewer than 50 students.

The number of elementary schools with less than 50 students has increased over the past decade across all major states, except Delhi.

Prof Aswini Kumar Nanda of Population Research Centre of Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development (CRRID) said lower fertility rates due to social, economic and health conditions of women would be the key reasons for decline in the population growth rate.

“The policy-makers need to pay attention to the projected trends and act accordingly,” said Nanda.