High Risk / High Rate Of Return, Low Risk / High Rate Of Return, How to Gamble, Debunking Profitability

Are you priced in

Base strategy and to avoid gambler's fallacy:

What are good bets in the game?

How about PRI Accessories?

To be priced in

How about PEN boss armor and weapons?

You can p2w with using artisans/crons so yeah.

As you can tell. Most of my values are relatively high. The idea is to reduceby using greens as a staging point.. Using greens also targets the lowest rate of return (odd variance). For example 38-80 most of thisare relatively small 1 out of 10ish.Also the reason why the gold accessories (50m+) are at that range is because of the word contingency. In all probability, especially at the given rate, normally things don't go as plan and failing accessories at 15 - 20 fs is significantly bad than failing 25-30 which can happen. If you look closely those are different rate on how you made those failstacks. One is significantly cheaper than the other (100m+ per failstack compare to a blackstone).(although technically failing accessories is definitely bad).Technically we are getting penalize here but the penalties are not as severe as TRI and Above values. Given that we all saved a lot of silver all the way to this number, it has a decentAlso I would love to get a .2%-1%+ edge over the house. Most casino card games have similar edge.... in the long run it pays off.: The Armor/Weapons really have high numbers before it reach SOFTCAP. Most of the values presented in my failstack guide represent softcap accessory values or close to it.Most of the times things don't go as planned: V Liverto Florang--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------"Just Get Lucky 4head" - we are going to use this formula on every risk that doesn't make sense.The "Just Get Lucky 4head". It's a realistic number like players who bet on Snake Eyes repetitively, hitting one outer in poker with one street or placing one number bets on roulette and winning. The same % rate as getting PEN at starting 110 failstack. The variable exist :)I hate progressive gambling like BDO"s enhancing we are unfortunately stuck with it. The best to approach this is the simplest formula on how to calculate "?" . Are you priced in concept is basically looking at how many of said item divided to the jackpot item. This gives you the approximate FS needed to attempt the item for a chance to get your money back or ultimately get it.Note: This is an old picture. For example 7 billion so divided it let's make it 1.5bil Around 4.6. So the average failstack to make this bet is around 21% (around 80 I believe). Hint: Always max accessories (except low blues and lower) it's CHEAPER to make the failstack than lose a big item.What I do is grind at places where accessories drop? Use what drops and attempt PRI and then make multiple DUO. Then use equity line of DUOs to fund the next TRI attempts (which is acceptable risk). If it fails at X number I can sell the DUO's and hopefully get my time/grind money back. It's a stepping stone strategy until I hit my TET accessories.This gives you a set limit on how much x wager per enhance session and on the amount of potential gains you get without tampering with your main bank. If you didn't hit either DUO or TRIs you are back to ZERO. As you can tell discipline is essential, sometimes bad session happens. These bad sessions or strings increases when you deal with lower probable rates TET and above.Personally Duo's, TRI's and TETs ACCESSORIES. You can make good leverages bets against the house like I've said about DUOs 50%+ bets or said TET accessory (depending on the pricing). There are many items out there that has good value cost/risk wise.It's 200% equity to get 50% return. Around 1 out of 3 or 4 failures. Then you add the tax. That looks like a sucker bet to me. Don't get me wrong it's good to MAKE or BUY for your progression base value bets but not to sell. One day it can be influenced by Marketplace pricing. it might go up WINKZ.[[u]i]How about PEN Accessories?[/i][/u]Except for the "Just Get Lucky 4head" mathematical formula. It's just bad. The current price in NA is 60 Billion for a PEN OGRE. TET cost about 10 billion.you need 6 of them. So around 17% that's like 320 failstacks. Not even counting the general cost of that 320 FS even using Green failstacking methods.Uhh what? That's too many variables to consider. Crons and Artisans can heavily influenced this. So yeah I'm not that confident to tell you to bet on Snake Eyes every time.. It can produce way too many strings that has bad outcomes.It's more instinctual to go for these bets closely related to Theranos investors. There is a reason why no one bets repeatedly on one number per roulette (even using European rules) or 6-6 or 1-1 (snake eyes) on a dice game. They feel like it's a "good time" to put the money in. Sometimes it pays off, but most of the time it doesn't. In the long run with the huge swings it is not practical. Except for the mathematical equation of "Just Get Lucky 4head" or just bad habit.Personally I use it as a stepping stone to get 300+ failstacks. It's a necessary evil to get that PEN Accessory that I want with my name on it :) You can get a rough estimate by looking at the devalue rate of the item, cron and memory frags per attempt..We have different perceptions of risk like i've said. I also chose accessories (except for manos) because they are the easiest to manipulate with the greens enhancing method. Also take note that most of the items can change due to Marketplace pricing and future changes.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I keep on seeing "profit" with enhancing. I don't think that's the word for it. Technically if some p2w tells you that they make "profit" because they spend thousands of dollars in artisans and crons.... then I don't know anymore. That definitely lowers the risk :)The best way to explain is by using the Bell Curve on how random distribution works. I call them strings of either good or bad luck. If probability suggest that there are people that hit 1 out of 1 4 times Tungrad for example me last year. To make 1 out 3(4ish) mathematically true someone has to fail, they have to fail repeatedly to balance the curve. These "strings" exists. Bad strings like 0 out of 4 plus and I hear numbers up to 0/15+. Luckily for me I get to experience it late in the game. Some players experience it in the beginning of their enhance sessions which means even if they have 10 billion capital they can lose it all in a couple of clicks.Personally I been doing this for a whole year. I still don't have PEN green helmet. This is my highest made so far 172 FS trying to PEN a green helmet.Being unlucky is part of the game especially with PEN ranges. I've seen 90 PEN Muskan attempts and zero gains in one day. Gambling is gambling.PA is a billion dollar industry... imagine that.