“There is no denying that recent economic changes would have benefited Muslims. What is also very visible is their growing political clout. In areas seemingly considered strongholds of Jats, Muslims are getting elected as MLAs and pradhans,” observes the Muslim leader.

Out of the 77 assembly seats in this region, Muslims won 26 seats in the 2012 assembly elections. It is perhaps the first time that Muslims’ representation in the state assembly reflects their share in the population. At the local level elections for panchayats and municipalities, Muslims have been winning seats in excess of their share in the total population.

Jats, on the other hand, have been at the receiving end of recent changes. The crisis in the sugar sector has hurt them the most. Apart from arrears, what seems to have hurt the farmers, mostly Jats as they have traditionally been the landowning group, is the low yield of sugarcane per hectare for many years. Ten years ago, a hectare of land would yield 55 tonnes. The yield remains the same even now. In fact, the sugarcane yield in Uttar Pradesh is 10-12 tonnes per hectare less than the national average.

While recent economic changes have favoured Muslims, the decline in the economic clout of Jats has happened simultaneously. It is very likely that Jats are yet to reconcile with the change in the dominance-subordination equation. That Muslims can match their economic might, and may potentially even exceed them politically, is perhaps hard to digest for them. Growing tension, therefore, is a result of the changing reality.

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist.)