The final destination of the storm once known as Typhoon Parma is set. The Parma forecast track takes it into Vietnam, south of Hanoi. It regained intensity to tropical storm status over the past few days and moved across Hainan, which is a island province in China. Bloomberg reports that 3 were killed there. Parma has fallen back to a depression and will remain so as it moves into Vietnam. The problem with this storm will be heavy rainfall. The Vietnamese authorities are expecting a 4 meter (13 feet) surge and with the storm moving along at just 7 kph (10 mph) I would expect that big rainfall totals can be expected in parts of Vietnam.

3 weeks ago, Tropical Storm Ketsana produced flooding and landslides in the Philippines that killed some 337 people. It then went and killed scores more with more flooding in Vietnam and Southeast Asia. At least 163 died in Vietnam alone. Then Typhoon Parma came to the Philippines a week later and destroyed crops as it moved northwest and then returned as a tropical storm and then a depression. The resulting rains produced more devastating flooding and killed well over 200 more. China View reports more than 600 have perished in the Philippines as a result of Ketsana and Parma. Parts of the Philippines have been under deep, standing water for 3 weeks and officials are now concerned about the potential for disease. Meanwhile, as they continue to find bodies in towns that had been buried in landslides, there is a shortage of coffins and at least 200 have had to be imported. I’ve reported on this calamity fairly frequently but the world seems to be more interested in other things. The UN had made an appeal for $74 million in aid. That is equivalent to about 1/4 of Alex Rodriguez total contract with the New York Yankees. Yet, the BBC reports that the UN has only been able to secure $19 million of the $74 million in aid requested.

WDPN33 PGTW 131500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//

WARNING NR 64//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PARMA HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO

THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)

TO THE NORTH OF PARMA. CONVECTION REMAINS DEEPEST IN A SINGLE BAND,

WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).

THE LLCC HAS REMAINED FREE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH

A RECENT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE

BAND, LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AFFECTING THE LOW

LEVEL INFLOW. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35

KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD.

3. FORECAST REASONING.

A. THE CURRENT FORECAST DEVIATES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN

REGARDS TO TRACK, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKING PARMA FURTHER

NORTH. THIS IS BASED PREDOMINANTLY ON PERSISTENCE AS MODEL GUIDANCE

HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SOUTHERN TURN WHILE PARMA HAS CONTINUED TO

TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED

TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

B. PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF THE STR, UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. AS PARMA

TRACKS INLAND, THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION,

AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER VIETNAM. MODEL GUIDANCE,

AS MENTIONED IN PARA 3.A., HAS NOT SHOWN SKILL IN FORECASTING THIS

SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BASED ON THIS FACT, THE CURRENT

FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE PERSISTENT TRACK OF PARMA VICE THE

CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL, THIS IS DUE TO THE POOR

REPRESENTATION OF PARMA IN MODEL FIELDS AS IT WEAKENS.//

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