"Trump should say he wants Ryan as speaker. That is the best case scenario for us to all move forward," said Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.). | Getty Can Paul Ryan survive?

JANESVILLE, Wis. — Donald Trump is about to be the next president. And one of the biggest questions Washington will wake up to Wednesday is this: Will Paul Ryan keep his job?

The party's long-time golden boy staked out a position as the anti-Donald Trump. He rolled out his "Better Way" policy agenda, a vision of conservatism at odds with Trump on substance and style. Ryan spoke out when the brash New York billionaire-turned-president elect repeatedly sparked outrage with his words. And finally, a month before the election, Ryan told his 246 House Republican colleagues that he wouldn't defend or respond to Trump.


The question of whether the two men can co-exist with that fraught history will preoccupy the Republican Party and the House GOP majority in the coming days and weeks. Will Trump and his allies in conservative media sphere train their venom on the Wisconsin Republican and try to push him out? And more broadly, how much damage does Trump's win do to Ryan's career?

It's clear what some of Trump's more anti-establishment allies think. Sean Hannity, the Fox News host and confidante of Trump, said it plainly Tuesday night: "Paul Ryan is not going to be speaker of the House in January."

But Hannity is a television host who doesn't have a vote in the House of Representatives. He could rally Republicans against Ryan — and Trump could try to push the speaker out. But, at least in the immediate aftermath of the election, there seemed to be little appetite for that within the GOP conference.

“I don’t believe for a second there will be any hard feelings, either way. Mr. Trump is not the kind of person who would look for revenge,” said Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), an early Trump supporter who is also friendly with Ryan. “For awhile Mr. Trump seemed aggravated [that Ryan distanced himself from the nominee], but it’s amazing how winning soothes those kinds of feelings, and he won. And Mr. Ryan did support him and did vote for him.”

He added: “We’re all going to be driving down the same road, and I totally don’t expect any issues whatsoever [with] Ryan continuing as speaker, or any animosity between he and Mr. Trump.”

Not everyone is so confident in Trump’s willingness to move on. As a top staffer to one of Trump’s most vocal Hill surrogates put it, “It depends on whether we get magnanimous Trump or a vengeful Trump — could go either way.” A senior House Republican who did not wish to be named also argued that Trump could “have a lot of influence over what happens” in a speakership election because “there are many Republican districts in the House where he will have won with 70 percent.”

“He would be the president-elect. If he chose to engage [in the speakerhip decision], it would matter... either way,” the lawmaker said on condition on anonymity.

There were signs Ryan's speakership was imperiled before Trump's victory. In some corners of the House Republican Conference, there was talk of challenging Ryan. By the margins alone, Ryan should be able to reclaim the speakership. But, at this point, it seems certain he'll need Trump's boosting.

"Trump should say he wants Ryan as speaker. That is the best case scenario for us to all move forward," said Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.), who won his fifth term Tuesday night. "We have to end the Republican civil war and Trump can do that."

Ryan in recent days has inched closer to Trump. He announced he voted for Trump last week, said he was willing to campaign with him over the weekend and wrote an op-ed in CNN encouraging Republicans to back the nominee. On Tuesday night, the speaker called Trump and his running mate Mike Pence to congratulate them on their victory.

Pence, the vice president-elect, has been supportive of Ryan in the past and could soon become his greatest advocate. The pair have been friends for years — since Pence’s days serving in the House. Ryan introduced him at the Republican National Convention, and they campaigned together in Wisconsin.



In a written statement early Wednesday morning, Ryan said Trump's win "marks a repudiation of the status quo of failed liberal progressive policies. We are eager to work hand-in-hand with the new administration to advance an agenda to improve the lives of the American people. This has been a great night for our party, and now we must turn our focus to bringing the country together."

Keeping Ryan around could offer some advantages for the president-elect. Trump has shown little interest in policy but will need to soon; he could potentially lean on Ryan to advance his agenda. Ryan also led the effort to keep the House majority, a huge success by any measure. His fundraising prowess could continue to boost Republicans.

And as much as Ryan rankled Trump during the election, the speaker is still popular on Capitol Hill. If Trump is serious about ending the Republican civil war, making peace with Ryan could be a first step.

"If [Trump] is President, why would he want to start by tearing the party in half? He would instantly alienate half of the House Republicans,” said a senior GOP source. “Paul is the best thing for Trump. He can bring the rank-and-file establishment to the table for Trump. If Trump takes Paul out he will have big trouble moving anything.”

