WITH Alfredo Morelos and Odsonne Edouard both getting on the scoresheet during the Boxing Day round of fixtures, fans of Celtic and Rangers have been lavishing praise on their star strikers once again. The green side of Glasgow are adamant that their French striker is the best in the country, while the blue side are convinced that the title belongs to Morelos.

The pair are widely accepted to be the best two forwards in Scotland at present, which begs the question: who’s better? We’ve taken a look at the stats to see if there are any clear differences between the two strikers in an attempt to settle the debate.

The above graph demonstrates each player’s actions per 90 minutes and at first glance, it’s notable that their isn’t too much separating the two forwards. Edouard has a marginally better scoring rate across all competitions, scoring 0.55 goals per 90 compared to Morelos’ rate of 0.53. Strikers will always be judged primarily on their goalscoring ability and by this metric, Edouard edges ahead of Rangers’ Colombian striker.

Morelos (3.38) hits more shots than Edouard (2.8) on average and slightly trails the Frenchman in terms of assists too. Similarly, the Rangers striker doesn’t manage as many dribbles as Edouard per 90 minutes. What this all tells us is that although the two forwards are remarkably similar in terms of their contribution to their side, Edouard is outperforming Morelos here. He’s scoring more goals despite shooting less, setting up more goals for his teammates and dribbling more than his Rangers counterpart during any given match.

Of course, simply looking at each forward’s actions per 90 minutes doesn’t tell the full story. Edouard might be doing more in each game than Morelos, but it’s crucial to look at each forward’s success rate too. Again, Edouard has the edge here. The 20-year-old hits more of his shots on target than Morelos and has a higher dribbling success rate than the Colombian.

So Edouard is doing more each match, and with a greater degree of success. It can be tempting to say that this settles the debate, but there’s more to it than that. These statistics are certainly illuminating, but they don’t tell the full story.

Expected goals (xG) measure the number of opportunities a forward has to find the back of the net and, crucially, the quality of those chances as well. This proves extremely useful when analysing a striker’s goalscoring prowess; after all, a shot from long distance and another from a few yards out vary vastly in the likelihood of resulting in a goal. A shot from distance - one that’s unlikely to go in - would result in a low xG, whereas an easy chance would have a high xG.

By examining a striker’s xG/90 and comparing it to their goals per 90, we can empirically state whether or not a player is overperforming. If a player’s xG/90 is higher than their goals/90, then they’re missing chances that they should really be putting away. If the reverse is true, it’s fair to assume that the player in question is scoring more than they reasonably ought to.

When we compare Morelos and Edouard’s xG/90 to their goals/90, we can see that both players are excelling in front of goal this season. Both have a positive discrepancy, meaning that they’re scoring chances that they should reasonably be missing. Once again, Edouard is narrowly out-performing Morelos in this regard. The ex-PSG forward is scoring 0.09 more goals per game than he ought to be, whereas Morelos is scoring 0.07 more per 90 minutes. Like every other category we’ve looked at, the two players are remarkably close but Edouard edges ahead.

The data tells us that Edouard is out-performing Morelos this season but, conversely, it appears that the Rangers striker is more important to his side than Edouard is to his. Edouard has the advantage going purely by his average level of performance, but Rangers’ 22-year-old striker is more likely be a game-changer for his side - particularly in big matches.

In fixtures against the Premiership’s top six, Morelos has found the net on six occasions in just nine appearances. Edouard, on the other hand, has only scored five, despite playing in two more games than his Ibrox counterpart. Unsurprisingly, both players are scoring the majority of their goals against weaker opposition but during matches between the Premiership’s top sides, Morelos is more likely to get on the scoresheet than Edouard.

It’s a similar story when we look at the amount of game-winning goals each forward has scored. In all competitions, Morelos has scored the winner on seven occasions this season - a solitary strike ahead of Edouard on six. In a nutshell, Morelos has gained 14 points for Rangers that they wouldn’t have got otherwise, while Edouard has picked up 12. This further underlines how important Morelos is to Rangers and while it’s only marginally higher than Edouard’s tally, reveals the extent to which Steven Gerrard relies on the 22-year-old.

All in all then, we can conclude that Edouard has the edge over Morelos in terms of the level of performance he’s putting in week in, week out for his side. Both players are enjoying excellent seasons and are posting remarkably similar numbers whichever way you look at it, although Edouard has the edge by just about any metric. Morelos tends to score more important goals than the Frenchman - and has a better record against the Premiership’s top teams - but Edouard, for now at least, is the top striker in Scotland.