The S&P 500 Index spent the better part of the past two weeks consolidating in the 2,700-point region, regenerating bullish sentiment. However, any move up, as today’s market action shows, isn’t assured.

When I look across the patterns in Elliott Wave theory charts, I do not see a consensus that suggests we have begun a 5th wave over 3,000 points in the S&P 500 SPX, -2.37% just yet. Rather, it seems there may be another downside leg before we are prepared to begin the next rally into 2019, which should take us over 3,000.

In the short term, as long as we don’t break below 2,700, the 2,760 region is my next upside target. That target would represent the d-wave of the purple triangle I have been presenting on my 60-minute chart. However, we will need to break down below 2,706 to suggest we are dropping in the e-wave of that triangle toward the 2,600 region.

Read:How to select oil stocks? Find companies that know how to handle money

Also, my primary expectation is that we can still see the e-wave of the purple triangle count. The alternative potential is that we are completing a much more complex b-wave high, with a c-wave yet to come pointing us below 2,500, as presented in red on the 60-minute chart. But to accept the red count as a higher probability, I would need to see a clear 5-wave structure to the downside. Right now, I have no such structure that would make me expect such a deep drop, which is why the triangle is my primary expectation.

As far as a much more immediate bullish expectation, I view that as the lower likelihood at this point. While I have been clear that I still expect this market to be heading over 3,000, I am not highly confident that we have begun that rally just yet. However, should we see a strong rally through 2,823, then it makes it much more likely that we are in our 5th wave rally to 3,000-plus. But, at this time, that is not my primary, immediate expectation.

I think it may take us another month or two before we complete wave (4). Once we complete wave (4) and then complete wave i of wave (5), we will be in a much better position to confirm that the market is targeting our ideal target in the 3,225 region by the middle of 2019, or if we will only be able to reach the 3,011 region a bit earlier than that. But most of what I have been reviewing still suggests that this market has higher to go in this long-term bull market, which began in 2009.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 RUT, -3.04% .

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live Trading Room featuring intraday market analysis on U.S. indices, stocks, precious metals, energy, forex, and more, along with an interactive member-analyst forum and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.