There could be 100,000 deaths in the UK by the end of the year should the present lockdown be replaced with only “shielding” policies, a scientist advising the government has warned.

Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist whose modelling prompted the introduction of social-distancing measures, said that policies intended to protect the most vulnerable people in society, but which would allow others to circulate freely, could lead to a heavy death toll.

In an interview with the news website UnHerd, Professor Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage), said: “We are modelling exactly those scenarios and in practical terms you would require a very high level of effective shielding for that to be a viable strategy.

“The most vulnerable people are