U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told the Travis County Democratic Party's annual dinner Monday night that "Texas is ground zero for us in the next election." The results of a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune survey released Tuesday suggest she might be right.

"When it turns, and it will soon, it will make all the difference right here in Texas and in the lives of individuals, it will make a difference in the country, and it will make a difference in the world," Pelosi told the packed crowd of 1,000 people at the Hyatt Regency Austin.

According to the poll, an internet survey of 1,200 registered voters conducted Feb. 15-24, it appears that Texas could be on the line in the 2020 presidential race, with roughly half of respondents saying they would choose a candidate other than President Donald Trump if the election were held now.

Forty-five percent said they would “definitely vote for someone else,” while 39 percent said they would “definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump.” Add in the 10 percent who say they would “probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump,” and the 6 percent who said they would “probably vote for someone else," and it is a virtual draw.

But Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, which conducts the poll, cautioned that the numbers do not necessarily foretell that Texas will be a swing state in 2020.

“The state is becoming more competitive, but that competition remains uneven up and down the ballot," Henson said. "We’re still going to have to wait and see how the races shape up in 2020 before we make any declarations about Texas being something like a toss-up state."

Typically, elections look closer in Texas the further away they are because early polls include all registered voters, among whom Democrats are better represented than among those who actually go vote. But the 2018 election upended those assumptions with Beto O'Rourke closing fast, driving up turnout and coming just 2.6 points shy of defeating U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, helping Democrats pick up two congressional seats and flip a dozen state House seats, though those strong local campaigns helped him as well.

While Gov. Greg Abbott won by 13.3 points, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick won by only 4.8 points, and six Texas GOP members of Congress — including Michael McCaul and Chip Roy of Austin, John Carter of Round Rock and Will Hurd of Helotes — won by less than 5 points.

"In the next 10 months, eight months really, Texas will be ground zero for us to win more seats in the House of Representatives, and in doing so to work collaboratively to win more seats in the state House," Pelosi said.

Beto factor

The question for 2020 is how much of a unique X factor O'Rourke was in 2018, and whether Trump, who is not as popular in Texas as a Republican president ought to be in a truly red state, will be a drag on GOP fortunes.

In the UT/Texas Tribune poll, 49 percent of Texas voters approve of the job Trump is doing, and 45 percent disapprove, slightly better than a year ago and two years ago.

The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

Along with the presidential contest, the marquee state race in 2020 will be U.S. Sen. John Cornyn's bid for a fourth term.

O'Rourke, who gave up his El Paso congressional seat to run for Senate, appears poised to pass on challenging Cornyn in favor of jumping into a crowded Democratic presidential field that already includes former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro. With O'Rourke taking a pass, Castro's twin brother Joaquin, a congressman from San Antonio, said last week he is considering taking on Cornyn.

While the Castros have long been touted as the next big thing in Texas Democratic politics, Henson said that judging by Julián Castro's numbers in the survey, which probably serve as a pretty good proxy for his twin's standing, the Castros don't have the name identification or head of steam that O'Rourke would bring to a Senate race.

The UT/Texas Tribune poll found that Texas voters now know O'Rourke and mostly have an opinion on him — 43 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable and 12 percent neutral or no opinion.

Cornyn's 'faint praise'

Julián Castro, despite having been in the Obama Cabinet as secretary of housing and urban development and having been considered by Hillary Clinton as a running mate in 2016, is far less known. Of Castro, 26 percent had a favorable impression, 32 percent had an unfavorable impression, and 42 percent have a neutral or no impression.

"Texas is trending more competitive, but if Beto O’Rourke stays out of the Senate race then the state becomes less competitive than it does with him in it," Henson said. "And while one person does not a political universe make, O’Rourke has created a real strong center of gravity for him that will be diluted by focusing on running for the Democratic presidential nomination, instead of challenging John Cornyn."

Of Cornyn's numbers, Henson said, "I think John Cornyn is damned with faint praise."

Thirty-six percent of voters have a favorable impression of Cornyn, 35 percent have an unfavorable impression, and 29 percent said they have a neutral or no impression of him, despite him holding state offices — Supreme Court justice, Texas attorney general and U.S. senator — since 1991.

Cruz, first elected in 2012, but with a presidential campaign under his belt, is viewed positively by 46 percent of voters, and unfavorably by 41 percent, with 13 percent uncertain.

Henson said that Cornyn will have "the difficult task of distinguishing himself from Donald Trump, but not too much."