CLEVELAND, Ohio - Ohio voters can demonstrate all they want against Congress - and they have been doing so lately - but they have little chance of changing how many Republicans and Democrats the state sends to the U.S. House.



This is because the chance of an incumbent, Republican or Democrat, losing a general election in any of Ohio's 16 congressional districts is highly unlikely.



Cleveland.com, in analyzing election results covering the last 448 races going back to 1972, could not find a time when there was less competition between the two parties, though the 1980s were nearly as uncompetitive.



Ohio has 16 safe congressional seats - 12 for Republicans and four for Democrats - the result of the gerrymandering of district maps by state leaders after the 2010 census.

Calls to reform the redistricting process, which is conducted after each census, have gone nowhere, though a new proposal was introduced last week in the Ohio legislature.

Updates: Read special cleveland.com series and ongoing coverage of gerrymandering at this link: Out of Line - Impact 2017 and Beyond.

Numbers

behind

the news

In the meantime, the maps established in 2012 are to remain in use through the 2020 elections.

Cleveland.com examined the election results, removing votes for the handful of third-party and independent candidates in order to allow for a cleaner look at the trends.

In 2016, when the average margin of victory for Ohio's 16 races was 36.3 points, the closest race wasn't close at all, decided by 18.4 points.

In 2014, the closest race was 20.3 points, while three-quarters of the races were decided by 30 points or more.

In 2012, there were two close races - decided by 4.1 points and 6.5 points. This was the last time races have been decided by single-digits.

No seat has changed party hands since 2012 - the first election with the current maps - with the GOP winning the same 12 seats and Democrats winning the same four seats in each of the last three elections. Checking records back to 1972, cleveland.com could not find another instance of party control staying the same for the first three elections with new maps.

The maps don't reflect the political makeup of the state. Republicans in the last three elections have claimed 75 percent of the U.S. House races while winning 56 percent of the overall vote.

How does redistricting work?

After each census, the maps are redrawn.

For Ohio, the process includes deciding which districts to eliminate. Ohio has been losing seats in the U.S. House of Representatives - from 23 in the 1970s to 16 currently - because the state has not kept up with the U.S. population growth.

The congressional maps must be approved by the Ohio House, the Ohio Senate and the governor.

The Republicans controlled all three - the House, Senate and governor's office - each of the last two times the maps were drawn - for 2002-2010 and for 2012-2020.

Every other time since at least 1950, each party had control of at least one of the three, forcing more compromise.

What is the history?

Statewide vote totals have rarely matched the breakdown of the congressional districts. But the difference between the total vote and the outcomes grew wider after full Republican control the last two times that maps were drawn.

With the maps used for the elections in 1982 through 1990, each party's share of congressional wins matched the overall vote in the state. The widening gap is illustrated below.

New congressional maps are drawn each 10 years. This chart shows the share of the seats won by Republicans and share of votes Republican vs. Democrats, excluding votes for third-party or independent candidates.

There have been fewer close races in recent times.

In 2012, the first year with the current maps, three races were decided by fewer than 15 points, but there were no races that close in either 2014 or 2016.

The chart below illustrates the share of all races decided by less than a 15-point margin during each redistricting period.

New congressional maps are drawn each 10 years. This chart shows the share of races decided by less than 15 percentage points with the use of each set of maps. These percentages are based on head-to-head comparisons between Republicans and Democrats.

How map lines can make a big difference

To increase the number of seats for one party, maps can be drawn to spread the party's support as much as possible while maintaining an expected majority in each district.

Then voters from the other party are packed into fewer districts.

Ohio's congressional maps for 2012-2020.

The result can be a congressional map that does not make geographic sense, and leaves many people without a representative who lives in their area.

For example, Republican Jim Jordan's district starts in Lorain County, weaves south to near Columbus and then west almost to the Indiana border.

Democrat Mary Kaptur represents a district that forms a narrow path from Cleveland to Toledo, splitting Rocky River along the way.

As an example, here is how that translated to votes for the 2016 election:

Democrats defeated Republicans by a total of 845,284 votes to 339,113 in its four districts (71.4 percent to 28.6 percent head-to-head).

In the 12 districts won by Republicans, the GOP had 2,656,884 votes to the Democrats' 1,309,239 (67 percent to 33 percent).

Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner.

Vote history

Shown below are combined vote totals for past congressional elections in Ohio, comparing the total votes won statewide (excluding votes for third-party and independent candidates) and the number of congressional races won statewide. New congressional maps are drawn every 10 years.

Elections Votes won

by GOP

candidates Seats won

by GOP

candidates GOP

winners Dem.

winners 1972-1980 53.2% 60.9% 70 45 1982-1990 48.5% 48.6% 51 54 1992-2000 52.6% 57.9% 55 40 2002-2010 51.3% 62.2% 56 34 2012-2016 56.0% 75.0% 36 12 Election-by-election results 1972 55.1% 69.6% 16 7 1974 51.1% 65.2% 15 8 1976 51.3% 56.5% 13 10 1978 53.5% 56.5% 13 10 1980 54.4% 56.5% 13 10 1982 44.6% 52.4% 11 10 1984 50.3% 47.6% 10 11 1986 50.4% 47.6% 10 11 1988 49.8% 47.6% 10 11 1990 46.8% 47.6% 10 11 1992 49.5% 47.4% 9 10 1994 59.2% 68.4% 13 6 1996 51.9% 57.9% 11 8 1998 52.6% 57.9% 11 8 2000 51.6% 57.9% 11 8 2002 57.1% 66.7% 12 6 2004 51.3% 66.7% 12 6 2006 47.3% 61.1% 11 7 2008 47.5% 44.4% 8 10 2010 56.4% 72.2% 13 5 2012 52.1% 75.0% 12 4 2014 60.2% 75.0% 12 4 2016 58.2% 75.0% 12 4

2016 results

District Republican Democrat 1 Chabot, Steve 59.2% Young, Michele 40.8% 2 Wenstrup, Brad 66.4% Smith, William 33.6% 3 Adams, John 31.4% Beatty, Joyce 68.6% 4 Jordan, Jim 68.0% Garrett, Janet 32.0% 5 Latta, Bob 70.9% Neu, James 29.1% 6 Johnson, Bill 70.7% Garrison, Jennifer 29.3% 7 Gibbs, Bob 68.9% Rich, Roy 31.1% 8 Davidson, Warren 71.8% Fought, Steven 28.2% 9 Larson, Donald 31.3% Kaptur, Marcy 68.7% 10 Turner, Mike 66.2% Klepinger, Robert 33.8% 11 Goldstein, Beverly 19.7% Fudge, Marcia L. 80.3% 12 Tiberi, Pat 69.0% Albertson, Ed 31.0% 13 Morckel, Richard 32.3% Ryan, Tim 67.7% 14 Joyce, David P. 62.6% Wager, Michael 37.4% 15 Stivers, Steve 66.2% Wharton, Scott 33.8% 16 Renacci, Jim 65.3% Mundy, Keith 34.7%

Source: cleveland.com/datacentral analysis of Ohio Secretary of State records.

Note: Excluded from the statewide tables are votes for third-party and independent candidates, as well as votes in special elections.This allowed for a direct comparison between share of votes won and congressional seats won.

