The Europa League group stage kicks off this week with all 24 matches of Matchday 1 being played tomorrow. We aren’t going to cover them all, instead focusing on a few matches based on the expected outcome of the match and noteworthy clubs of interest to our readership.

At the moment, Manchester United is nominally the favorite, winning in 8% of FiveThirtyEight simulations. However, with so many clubs still in the tournament – not to mention the firepower that could come over from Champions League – the favorite probably shouldn’t truly be anointed until we reach the Round of 32 in February.

Our next match preview from Matchday 1 will feature a club making their debut in the group stage against a Portuguese club looking to improve on last season’s disappointing early exit. Wolverhampton Wanderers play host to Braga, with the action kicking off from Molineux Stadium at 8pm BST (3pm EST) on Thursday.

Just like we did in previewing our Matchday 1 Champions League matches, we’re just going to look at how the clubs are faring back home in their home leagues this season, as well as what they did last season. Then we’ll look at the clubs’ respective histories in European competition, and then finish with a brief look at the matchup and who enters the match favored to prevail.

Without further ado, here’s a look at these two club clubs:

Domestic League Performance

The Wolves have only played six seasons in the English Premier League, and last season was their first in the top flight of English football since a last place finish in 2011-12. But new ownership – Chinese investment group Fosun Internation purchased the club in 2016 – led to a renewed focus on investment in the squad a return to the top of England after a monster season in the Championship in 2017-18.

Last season’s seventh-place finish was their highest in the top flight since a sixth-place finish in 1979-80. The beginning of this season, however, has not been quite as stellar, with the club winless through five games (0-3-2) and a position in the relegation zone, though with 31 matches remaining, there is plenty of time to return to form.

Braga has never won the Primeira Liga in Portugal, with a runners-up finish in 2009-10 their best finish in their domestic league. Last season, they finished in a distant fourth place behind Benfica and Porto, the fourth time in the past five seasons that they have finished in that position.

Like the Wolves, they have struggled early in their domestic season, though they do have a win early on. Nevertheless, with a 1-1-3 record through five matches, Braga finds itself in 16th place (in an 18-team league), just out of the relegation zone at this early stage in the season.

European History

Both clubs had to play through qualification to reach this point, and the Wolves are playing in Europe for the first time since the 1980-81 season.

They have not looked like rookies through three rounds of qualifying, winning all six matches while defeating Crusaders, Pyunik, and Torino by a combined score of 19-4. It was one of the strongest performances for a club during the qualification stage, but based on their league performance thus far, it could have simply been a product of the draw.

The Wolves do have some success in Europe, though it is nearly two generations ago. They reached the final of the 1971-72 UEFA Cup, losing to Tottenham Hotspur in a two-legged final. That run began with their only previous match against a Portuguese club, a win over Académica.

Braga’s European history is lengthier, and they have also reached a European final, a loss in the 2011 Europa League to Porto. They’ve reached or started in the group stage of Europa League in four of the past five seasons (including this one), and their best result since that final was a quarter-final loss to Shakhtar Donetsk in 2015-16.

Last season’s European experience was a short one, with Braga losing to Zorya Luhansk in the third qualifying round of Europa League. They’ve already improved on the performance this season, with qualifying round victories over Brøndby (3QR) and Spartak Moscow (play-off round) and an undefeated 4-0-0 record (+6 goal differential).

This Matchup

Surprisingly, despite their limited European history, Wolverhampton Wanderers are currently favored to win Group K. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Wolves have a 55% chance of winning the group outright and an additional 27% chance of finishing second, giving them an overall chance of 82% to reach the knockout stage. Braga currently has the third-best odds of advancing (49%), slightly behind Beşiktaş and ahead of Slovan Bratislava.

In this match, the Wolves are favored as the home team, coming out of top in 60% of FiveThirtyEight simulations. Like another matchup we previewed, the chances of a draw (24%) are higher than the visiting team’s odds at winning (16%). Braga will need to overcome their early season struggles to try and snatch a point at Molineux this week.

These clubs will meet again in Portugal on Thanksgiving, and it could very well be the match that decides the group. I haven’t really liked what the Wolves have done domestically this season thus far, but their European performance needs to be reckoned with and I understand why they are favored in this one.

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