That's a majority of 192 for Leave – larger even than Tony Blair's majority in the 1997 Labour landslide. The message is stark: most prospective MPs at the next election will be standing in constituencies which voted to Leave.



Some caveats about how we did this: especially for large council areas that both had very close results and contain lots of constituencies, this won't be accurate down to the individual constituency level. For some specific constituencies – for example, wealthier pro-Remain constituencies in otherwise anti-EU cities – it might call them wrong. But because data wasn't consistently collected across Britain about how individual wards within each council voted (although some areas did), we can't be sure of how voting patterns changed across each council area.

This means that, for example, Birmingham's ten constituencies are all assigned a narrow Leave win, while Leeds' eight are all narrow Remain. That's unlikely to be exactly how it would play out in reality – but equally, we believe it balances out when looking at nation-wide patterns.

That's backed up by the fact that political scientist Chris Hanretty conducted a similar exercise using a more complex methodology, and he came out with a very similar result: looking at just English and Welsh constituencies, he predicted that 421 out of the 574 would have voted Leave. (Our count includes Scotland and Northern Ireland as well.)

This gives both Labour and the Conservatives problems – but Labour's troubles are potentially much more severe.

On the map above, you can use the tabs at the bottom to switch between the referendum result, and a map of each party's current seats. It also shows each party's potential target seats – the marginal constituencies they'll need to take if they want to win the election.

