After nearly a year of campaigning, the first votes will finally be cast in the Democratic primary in a little over two months on February 3rd, in the Iowa caucuses. With that in mind, The New Voice will be publishing monthly updates on the State of the Democratic Primary, covering major news, power rankings, notable shifts, changes, and policies for your information.

In addition, I’ve put together for your viewing ease a spreadsheet covering debate qualifications, national polling, early state polling, and fundraising numbers. This spreadsheet is updated roughly once a week. You can access it here.

General State of the Democratic Primary

What this past month has shown is that nothing is certain. While Joe Biden has dominated the centrist lane this campaign season, his frontrunner status is now threatened. Elizabeth Warren still holds a commanding position in the polls but has fallen greatly from her peak, overtaken by a resurgent Bernie Sanders. Meanwhile, the centrist lane has been opened up by strong performances by Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, and will further be contested by the late entry of Michael Bloomberg to the race.

The campaigns this month have been overshadowed by the impeachment hearings in the House. We saw ten candidates duke it out on a debate stage, to no real result. The field thinned by two candidates, but just as two more quickly entered the race. Meanwhile, only six candidates have qualified for the December stage in Los Angeles. Four more could plausibly qualify, and for the rest of the Democrats, we have only one question to ask: When will you drop out?

The New Voice’s Democratic Primary Power Rankings

1. Joe Biden

While Biden is generally recognized as the frontrunner in this race, it must be emphasized that he is a weak frontrunner whose lead has become more and more contested as each week passes. He was outraised by Buttigieg in the second quarter and Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren in the third. He’s fallen double digits in Iowa and New Hampshire polling. But while he hasn’t done anything noteworthy, he hasn’t done anything horrible either (unless you count his slip-ups at this month’s debate). Rather, his frontrunner status has stayed this past month largely due to grappling between Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg for voters. The entry of Michael Bloomberg in this race, as well as the upward trajectory of Buttigieg’s campaign, both spell trouble for the former Vice-President as we march towards Iowa.

2. Elizabeth Warren

From being written off in December 2018 to narrowly chasing Biden’s edge now, Warren has had a remarkable year. She’s proven that she has the policy, charisma, and political savvy to sustain her campaign. If this piece was dated a month earlier, she would’ve been crowned the frontrunner. However, her national polling has fallen nearly 14 points in the past month. One core voter bloc of progressives is being contested by a newly revitalized Bernie Sanders, and her other core bloc of college-educated voters has been enticed by Pete Buttigieg. She still polls just under Biden in the core early states, but Warren needs to remake her case to the undecided voters who will decide her fate.

3. Bernie Sanders

Over the past few months, Sanders’ friend and colleague in the Senate, Elizabeth Warren, has eaten into his position as Biden’s main rival for the nomination. The political firebrand, who fundamentally shifted the discussion within the Democratic Party during his legendary 2016 primary campaign against eventual-nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton, has been lacking in firepower. But over the last two debates, Bernie has been snappy, strong, and has reclaimed his mantle as the leading populist. His fundraising framework has also been revealed to be the most consistent and the strongest in the field. Whether or not he can build a strong lead over Warren remains to be seen this next month.

4. Pete Buttigieg

Mayor Pete said at the beginning of November that the primary “is getting to be a two-way” race between himself and Elizabeth Warren. Now at the tail end of the month, he’s risen back to a commanding first place position in Iowa, a narrow second in New Hampshire, and back up to double digits nationally. Over the past two quarters, Buttigieg has raised more money than any candidate (over $44m), narrowly edging out Sanders ($43.3m) and Warren ($43.8m), and trouncing frontrunner Biden ($37.2m). The former Mayor has delivered consistently strong and charismatic debate performances that have eaten away at Warren’s college-educated bloc and Biden’s centrist bloc. Buttigieg is absolutely on the rise right now, and he may soon rise to join Biden, Warren, and Sanders in the upper echelon of the race.

5. Amy Klobuchar

While polling below Harris and Yang, Amy Klobuchar sits higher on our list for four main reasons: she’s given stellar debate performances; she’s polling better than most other candidates in early states; she’s qualified for the December debate; and finally, she’s simply on the rise. The moderate Senator from Minnesota, who has largely been a non-factor up until this month, has shown that her campaign is very much capable. She’s underperformed until now, but this may be the worst time for her. While Biden is beginning to falter, the entry of Bloomberg and the strength of Buttigieg will make for fierce competition for moderate voters.

6. Kamala Harris

Harris makes up the sixth Democrat to have qualified for December so far. While she’s polling better nationally and in early states than Amy Klobuchar, she ranks below Klobuchar due to her lackluster debate showings and her consistent downward numbers since June when she made her first big splash next to Joe Biden. Harris is currently in a statistical tie with Andrew Yang and was nearly outraised by him as well last quarter. In any other year, Kamala Harris would be a strong candidate, a compromise candidate between the left and center wing, a historic Asian- and African-American woman nominee for president. But this year, caught in the crossfire between the progressives and centrists, Harris’ campaign has simply fizzled after the initial burst.

7. Andrew Yang

Just one poll short of qualifying for December, Yang is ranked 7th in this edition simply on the off-chance of not receiving that last poll. Regardless, the fact that he outpolls, out fundraisers, and has out-qualified sitting and former Senators, Governors, Representatives, and Secretaries is a testament to the strength of his “longer-than-long-shot bid”. The first-time candidate has built an extraordinarily strong, dedicated, and broad coalition that has propelled him this far. The question now is whether Democrats will take to his message, and more importantly, if they are willing to elect an inexperienced outsider to take on Donald Trump.

8. Tom Steyer

Promising to spend over $100 million on his campaign, the billionaire Democratic donor has spent his way to the debate stage, begging donors for just a single dollar. The rest of it has been self-financed. Unfortunately for Steyer, voters have not taken to his message. He’s hit the polling requirement for December but has yet to gather 200,000 donors. It’s unclear whether Democrats want to nominate a billionaire, but until Steyer misses debate qualifications, he’s still in the race.

9. Cory Booker

Cory Booker has not been able to shine. The Senator from New Jersey has over 200,000 donors but has not been polling well. He hasn’t hit 4% in a single early state poll and is polling under 2% nationally. Like Harris, Booker seems to have found himself lost in the ideological battle for the direction of the party. There’s hope for him still, with two weeks to qualify for Los Angeles and a recently announced six-figure ad purchase in Iowa and South Carolina.

10. Tulsi Gabbard

This month, Hillary Clinton briefly commented on the 2020 race solely to challenge Tulsi Gabbard, suggesting she was being groomed to split the Democratic vote as a third-party candidate. In response, Gabbard called Clinton the “personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party”. This bit of contention ironically gave Tulsi the boost she needed to qualify for the November debate last minute. She now has 3/4 national polls and 1/2 early state polls she needs to qualify for December as well, although she has yet to meet the donor requirement. The divisive Representative has clashed with everyone from Harris to Buttigieg in recent months, and while she’s garnered a small dedicated following, she has yet to convince the Democratic electorate.

Updates from the Campaign Trail

Goodbye Beto and Wayne, hello Deval and Mike!

At the beginning of the month, Beto O’Rourke surprised America and announced he was dropping out of the presidential race, despite the plausibility of making the next debate stage. In less shocking news, the Mayor of Miramar, FL, Wayne Messam, dropped out this month as well, after raising $5 in contributions in the last quarter. That brought the Democratic field down to its lowest in months: 16 candidates. Of course, we’re back to 18 now, with former MA Governor Deval Patrick and former NYC Mayor/multi-billionaire Michael Bloomberg declaring their candidacies after much speculation. Both men enter the primary as centrists, aiming to take the lead away from Joe Biden. But with such late entries, is it plausible?

Deval Patrick faces the much larger hurdle; he has less disposable wealth and name recognition than Bloomberg. As a more moderate Democrat and as Massachusetts first African-American governor, Patrick’s best path to the nomination lies through winning over black voters, who lean towards the political center. However, he enters the now crowded centrist lane, with Joe Biden serving as the frontrunner, Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg on the rebound, and fellow newcomer Michael Bloomberg who has the ability to self-fund himself to the nomination. It’s highly unlikely Patrick wins the nomination, but he does stand a chance due to the recent volatility of the primary.

Michael Bloomberg may end up being the most unconventional candidate this year. That’s right, the former Mayor of New York, nationally-known Democrat, and one of the wealthiest men in America is going to be running the odd campaign. At least, compared to everyone else this year. All the candidates running this year have followed the DNC’s new debate qualifications: polling and donor requirements must be met. At a news conference, Bloomberg claimed he’d be “better off talking to the public”, opting instead to pour all of his resources directly into advertising to develop his campaign.

The crazy part is, it might just work. Tom Steyer pledged to spend up to $100 million of his own money for his campaign. The day he announced his campaign, Bloomberg dropped $34 million on TV advertisements in 46 separate states. With a net worth of $54 billion, Bloomberg has, compared to his competitors, an infinitely large war chest. If Bloomberg can outspend almost every other Democrat running in his first-day campaigning, he has a legitimate shot at the nomination.

More candidates will drop out in the months to come. Iowa and New Hampshire are the gatekeepers of the nomination. Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg are likely in the race long past that. For everyone else, February 3rd is judgement day. The race for the nomination truly begins now.

What’s going on in Iowa and New Hampshire?

The biggest surprise of November was the sudden rise of Pete Buttigieg. Since his viral CNN Town Hall in March, Buttigieg has largely been unable to capitalize on his newfound fundraising and name recognition. However, in the past two debates, he has begun to challenge his rivals and in doing so bolster his own status in the race. That, coupled with a strong early state ground team, Buttigieg has shot upward In Iowa, he’s claimed the frontrunner status, coming first in the last 3 out of 4 polls. In New Hampshire, he averages first, ahead of Sanders, Warren, and Biden. While he still polls far below all three nationally, he’s reached double digits again and is very much on the rise.

Similarly, Bernie Sanders has returned to his classic self, taking back swing voters from Warren as he overpasses her nationally, and begins to outpoll both her and Biden in Iowa and New Hampshire as well. His strong debate performances, his increasingly solid network of volunteers and staffers in key early states, and the return of his firebrand politics have brought him back into strong contention.

This sudden volatility in Iowa and New Hampshire does not mean the race has shifted. Just a month ago, Elizabeth Warren jostled her way back Biden nationally, as well as many key early states. Rather, it seems voters are a bit tired of both Warren, who has largely dodged questions on signature policies, as well as Biden, who has repeatedly gaffed on the campaign trail. For both Sanders and Buttigieg, a portion of their gain is not due to themselves, but rather voters looking for alternatives from a lackluster showing from Warren and Biden.

As the size of the Democratic primary whittles down, the nomination process becomes more competitive as more candidates prove their endurance. At the moment, however, it looks clear that there is a four-candidate upper tier, with everyone else far below them. With the entrance of Bloomberg, the possibility of yet a smaller debate stage in December, and Iowa two months away, the primary is set to experience great shifts in the coming months.

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