The coronavirus pandemic could cost the global economy $4.1 trillion (€3.78 trillion) as it ravages the United States, Europe and other major economies, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned on Friday.

The Manila-based organization said the "possibility of severe financial turmoil and financial crises cannot be discounted."

In its latest report, the ADB said the figure amounted to nearly 5% of worldwide economic output, based on the health emergency lasting 6 months or more. It added that the losses could be worse still.

"The estimated impact could be an underestimate, as additional channels such as ... possible social and financial crises, and long-term effects on health care and education are excluded from the analysis," the ADB's chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada said.

He added that a shorter containment period to stem the spread of the virus could reduce the economic losses to $2 trillion.

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China growth sputters

The report said China, the world's second-biggest economy, saw double-digit contractions in business activity in January and February and will likely see growth fall to 2.3% this year from a three-decade low of 6.1% in 2019.

China is trying to get its economy back on track after unprecedented shutdowns in Wuhan, where the virus was first reported, and other parts of the country.

The ADB said China could suffer losses amounting to up to $692 billion if containment efforts drag on. But the bank estimated that growth would bounce back next year to more than 7%.

Asia as a whole is forecast to grow just 2.2% this year, its slowest pace since a 1.7% expansion during the 1998 Asian financial crisis.

Read more: Coronavirus: China and responsible action

How to protect yourself against the coronavirus Better than nothing It has not been proven that the face masks seen above can effectively protect you against viral infections. That said, these masks are probably able to catch some germs before they reach your mouth or nose. More importantly, they prevent people from touching their mouth or nose (which most people do instinctually). If you are already sick, such masks may keep you from infecting others.

How to protect yourself against the coronavirus Disinfect your hands One of the best ways to protect yourself from the virus is to frequently clean your hands, according to the World Health Organization's (WHO) list of recommendations. The WHO recommends alcohol-based hand rub, like the ones seen here in a hospital.

How to protect yourself against the coronavirus Soap and water will do as well The simpler day-to-day solution is to use water and soap, if you've got some handy. But make sure to wash your hands thoroughly. Health authorities in the US recommend washing your hands for at least 20 seconds, making sure to pay attention to areas like your fingertips, thumbs and underneath your nails.

How to protect yourself against the coronavirus Coughing and sneezing - but doing it right! So here's what the doctors recommend: When coughing and sneezing, cover your mouth and nose with your flexed elbow. Or use tissue — but then immediately throw that tissue away and wash your hands. With your shirt or sweater, however, no, you don't need to throw them away. Do wash them frequently, though, or take them to the dry cleaner's.

How to protect yourself against the coronavirus Stay away! Another recommendation that may not work for everybody: Avoid close contact with anyone who has fever and cough! If you have to tend to sick people, make doubly sure to take additional protective measures.

How to protect yourself against the coronavirus Got a fever? Go to the doctor, not on a trip! If you have fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical care early. Avoid public places so you don't infect others. And also, explain to your doctor where you've previously traveled and who you may have come in contact with.

How to protect yourself against the coronavirus Avoid contact! When visiting live markets in areas currently experiencing cases of the novel coronavirus, avoid direct unprotected contact with live animals. That includes any surfaces that are in contact with animals as well.

How to protect yourself against the coronavirus Well done — not rare! Cook meat thoroughly. The consumption of raw, or undercooked, animal products should be avoided. Raw meat, milk or animal organs should be handled with care to avoid cross-contamination with uncooked foods. These are good food safety practices and help prevent the spread of illnesses. Author: Fabian Schmidt



Developing nations hit hard

The regional lender said growth in developing Asia would likely fall to 2.2% in 2020 from 5.2% last year, and account for up to 36% of the estimated losses.

Sawada said the bank's forecasts assume the coronavirus outbreak will be contained this year and return to normal in 2021.

But he warned that "supply chains could be permanently interrupted, and there could be a retreat in globalization and regional integration."

Read more: What do futurists imagine for the post-coronavirus-pandemic world?

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This would be a blow to Asia which has benefited hugely from open economies and liberal trade and capital flows in the past decade, he added.

On Thursday, the number of global COVID-19 cases topped the one million mark with more than 52,500 deaths.

Governments around the world have pledged more than $5 trillion in stimulus, while also easing monetary policy, as their economies grind to a halt.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Pneumonia-like virus hits Wuhan On December 31, 2019, China notifies the World Health Organization of a string of respiratory infections in the city of Wuhan, home to some 11 million people. The root virus is unknown and disease experts around the world begin working to identify it. The strain is traced to a seafood market in the city, which is quickly shut down. Some 40 people are initially reported to be infected.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 First death in China On January 11, China announces the first death from the coronavirus — a 61-year-old man, who had shopped at the Wuhan market, dies from complications with pneumonia. Like SARS and the common cold, scientists identified that the new virus is in the coronavirus family. It is temporarily named 2019-nCoV. Symptoms include fever, coughing, difficulty breathing, and pneumonia.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Virus reaches neighboring countries In the following days, countries such as Thailand and Japan begin to report cases of infections in people who had visited the same Wuhan market. In China, a second fatality is confirmed in the city. By January 20, three people have died in China and more than 200 are infected.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Millions under lockdown China places Wuhan on quarantine on January 23 in an attempt to limit the spread of the virus. Transportation is suspended and workers attempt to quickly build a new hospital to treat infected patients, which total over 830 by January 24, as the death toll climbs to 26. Officials eventually extend the lockdown to 13 other cities, affecting at least 36 million people.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 A global health emergency? More and more cases are confirmed outside of China, including in South Korea, the US, Nepal, Thailand, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. As the number of infections rises, the World Health Organization on January 23 determines that it's "too early" to declare a global public health emergency.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Coronavirus reaches Europe On January 24, French authorities confirm three cases of the new coronavirus within its borders, marking the disease's first appearance in Europe. Hours later, Australia confirms four people have been infected with the respiratory virus.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 First cases confirmed in Germany On January 27, Germany announces its first known case of the virus — a 33-year-old in Bavaria who contracted it during a workplace training with a visiting Chinese colleague. He is put under quarantine and observation at a Munich hospital. The following day, three of his colleagues are confirmed infected. The death toll in China reaches 132, with around 6,000 infected worldwide.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 WHO declares global health emergency On January 30, the UN's World Health Organization (WHO) declares coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern in a bid to protect countries with "weaker health systems." However, WHO Secretary-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus does not recommend trade and travel restrictions, saying these would be "an unnecessary disruption."

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 First death outside China The first death linked to the novel coronavirus outside of China is reported in the Philippines on February 2. A 44-year-old Chinese man had traveled from Wuhan to Manila before falling ill and being taken to hospital, where he later died of pneumonia.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Bad ending to a cruise Also on February 3, the cruise ship Diamond Princess is quarantined off Yokohama in Japan after cases of the new coronavirus were found on board. As of February 17, the number of people infected has grown to more than 450, the largest cluster of cases outside of China. Several of the 3,700 passengers and crew onboard the ship are being or have been flown back to their home countries.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Italy under quarantine Cases in Italy rise dramatically, with 77 deaths and thousands of confirmed cases by March 3. Many countries instigate travel restrictions to northern Italy and tourist numbers plummet. On March 8, the Italian government put the entire Lombardy region into quarantine, affecting 16 million people. March 10 sees 168 fatalities in Italy, the highest in a single day.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Economic woes European and US stock markets slump on March 6, leading to the worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. The effect on global business has been significant, with many companies reporting losses and the tourism industry and airlines badly hit. The EU pledge €7.5 billion ($8.4 billion) on March 10 in an investment fund to try to stop the Eurozone falling into a recession.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 WHO declares outbreak as pandemic As worldwide cases top 127,000 and deaths pass 4,700, the World Health Organization designates the global outbreak as a "pandemic" on March 11. US President Donald Trump announces a travel restriction on people coming from the Schengen Zone in Europe, annoying the EU. German Chancellor Angela Merkel announces that in Germany, 70% of the population could get the virus.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Public life on hold in Europe On March 14, Spain joins Italy in imposing a near-total nationwide lockdown to prevent the virus spreading. The population of 46 million is told not to leave their homes unless for essential tasks. In France, cafés, restaurants and non-essential shops are closed as of March 15. Many public events in Germany are cancelled and schools close.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 International travel severely restricted As of March 15, many countries impose strict travel bans or restrictions in an attempt to stop the spread of Covid-19. For example, New Zealand and Australia require all international passengers to self-isolate for 14 days after arrival in the country. The US extends a European travel ban to include the United Kingdom and Ireland.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Germany imposes partial lockdown In a landmark televised address German Chancellor Angela Merkel announces far-reaching restrictions on everyday life on March 22, banning meetings between more than two people not from the same household outside of the workplace. The country has a surprisingly low death rate, a phenomenon attributed to a high level of testing, and a high number of intensive care beds.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Virus strikes at top as UK locks down On March 23rd Britain becomes the latest country to impose restrictions on personal freedoms, with people only allowed to leave their homes in a limited number of circumstances. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is diagnosed with the viruson March 27, as well as heir to the throne Prince Charles on March 25. Meanwhile, there are complaints that not everyone is taking social distancing seriously.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Grim milestone for the US On March 27 the US overtakes China in terms of the number of people infected, making it the country with the most cases of COVID-19. This came as President Donald Trump claimed that the nation would get back to work "pretty quickly." At the same time, it emerged that more than 3 million Americans had lost their jobs due to the pandemic. New York is worst-hit, with a hospital ship sent to help out.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 Spain's surging death toll Spain also overtakes China in the number of COVID-19 cases on March 30, as the government toughens the severity of its lockdown. All non-essential activities are halted. Only Italy has a higher death toll than Spain. Most affected is the capital, Madrid. With funeral services overwhelmed, officials turn the Palacio de Hielo ice skating rink into a temporary morgue.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 More than a million On April 2nd the Johns Hopkins University announced on Thursday that there were more than a million confirmed coronavirus cases around the world. The US is the most affected with three times the number than China, where the virus emerged in December. Over 50.000 people have died — and the outlook remains grim.

Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19 UK PM Boris Johnson hospitalized The 55-year-old was admitted to the intensive care unit at London's St Thomas hospital on Monday evening (6.4.) and was given oxygen treatment after his condition worsened. He had been diagnosed with COVID-19 on March 27. Author: Richard Connor



mm/rt (AFP, AP, dpa)

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