RUGBY:IT PROBABLY shouldn’t have come down to this, but it has. Despite beating Australia, the failure to post a bonus-point fourth try against the USA means that, instead of requiring just a solitary bonus point to advance as group winners, Ireland effectively must beat the Azzurri to ensure their place in the last eight.





Having beaten the Wallabies, it would be a crying shame if they were to come home on Monday, but that famous win brings no guarantees in the so-called Greenhouse of Pain tomorrow.

It undoubtedly shouldn’t come to that, against an inferior force whom Ireland have beaten 15 times in a row, even if there always remains the nagging suspicion this sequence cannot last forever. The Azzurri also have a grizzled bunch of warriors, as tightly knit as any side in this tournament, whose starting team boasts 745 caps between them and whose match-day 22 have 1,067 caps combined.

Like los Pumas, an Italian team with five Argentinian-born players in their ranks will bring a bucketload of passion and a simple, direct gameplan, all the more so amid the emotional baggage of what might be Nick Mallett’s last game after four years at the helm.

But the cut-throat nature of a World Cup and of this glorified knockout game cuts both ways, as does the sickening fear of failure which the Irish rugby mentality is steeped in and seemingly thrives under. It’s a last World Cup for plenty of players and when it was put to Brian O’Driscoll that to beat Australia and end up going home on Monday would be heartbreaking, he simply responded: “Yes, it would.” ’Nuff said.

The adage that a game of rugby is, first and foremost, a battle seems particularly apt for this winner-takes-all, one-off game. Ireland have to meet Italy in the trenches, in other words there will be no avoiding the scrums and the fringe pick-and-goes; the close-range combat the Italians will cherish. The lines in the sand will be drawn by the first scrum or two.

With 203 caps in their frontrow alone, and another 169 between their back-up hooker and prop, Italy have put all their eggs in this basket. By the evening’s end, the biggest heroes may well be Cian Healy, Rory Best and Mike Ross, who have a paltry 88 caps combined, while Seán Cronin and Tom Court add just another 37.

Ireland can thank the heavens their tight five has suffered no more injuries, and that Paul O’Connell has been passed fit after coming through training yesterday.

Although a draw, or two bonus points, would suffice, for the more credible target of winning to be reached, the key will be where Ireland apply the pressure points. First and foremost, they have to cut off the options for the brilliant Sergio Parisse, be it through a rock-like scrum, aggressive fringe defence or targeting him in the open. The Italians depend even more on Parisse than Ireland do on Brian O’Driscoll, but as a result he can overplay his hand under pressure. Any evidence of that, and Ireland are on their way. It can’t be easy being their only world-class player.

Territory, not just for territory’s sake, but at the right times to dampen the Azzurri’s spirits, while also feeding off the Irish crowd, could be another key point, for as the ex-pats began arriving in Dunedin in their droves yesterday, the thought occurred that the Otago Stadium could be Eden Park condensed and with the volume turned up.

No better man then, than Ronan O’Gara, who has been on the winning side in all of his dozen meetings with Italy, scoring 164 points. And with the scrum a full-on fulcrum, and Jonathan Kaplan in charge, three-pointers could well set the tone in a ground which, despite the roof, has proven very tricky for kickers.

There tend to be a few more penalties with the pernickety Kaplan in charge. He is particularly hard on tacklers not rolling away, and the first player in to the breakdown not being on his feet when contesting for the ball. Kaplan practically invented “not supporting your own body weight”, which is actually fair enough.

Another potentially critical point for applying pressure will be on the Azzurri’s inexperienced and unexceptional half-backs, especially Luciano Orquera. Give him a one-on-one against a piano shifter, all the more so in front of a home crowd in Aironi, and he’ll go for it. But, in the school of non-tackling outhalves, Orquera could be headmaster. Losing hard-tackling Aussie Craig Gower through injury before the tournament was Mallett’s cruellest blow.

And with a rampant backrow of Stephen Ferris, Seán O’Brien and a revitalised Heaslip augmented by Conor Murray’s cool temperament and sharp, physical presence around the fringes, Ireland ought to have more arrows in their quiver even before they start employing strike runners like Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls.

This was a very worrying fixture at the outset of the week, and it could yet still be, but the more you think about it, it shouldn’t be. Ultimately, you also suspect Mallett’s “our frontrow is better than Ireland’s” utterings on Tuesday were both the pleas of a desperate man and, as Heaslip said yesterday, “a red rag to a bull”.

Overall head-to-head: Played 19, Ireland 16 wins, Italy 3 wins.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/8 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 6/1 Italy. Handicap odds (Italy +12pts) 10/11 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Italy.

Forecast: Ireland to win.