Melbourne suburbs will start to vote the same way as Queensland, a key Labor operative has warned, spelling long-term danger for the party in its strongest state.

The warning comes as ALP hopes fade in the target seat of Chisholm with the Liberal candidate Gladys Liu marginally ahead and expected to take the seat as postal votes continued to be counted on Tuesday morning.

Liberal Candidate for Chisholm, Gladys Liu. Credit:Dominic Lorrimer

Failure to win Chisholm will leave Labor with just two gains in Victoria, the seats of Corangamite and Dunkley won on the back of new boundaries rather than a growing Labor vote.

The Liberals have not given up hope on Corangamite- with postal votes still being counted, their candidate Sarah Henderson trails her opponent by about 2800 votes.