Nov 1, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Wade Davis throws a pitch against the New York Mets in the 12th inning in game five of the World Series at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The KC Royals hopes to repeat as champions in 2016 rest upon a strong repeat performance from their shut-down bullpen headlined by closer Wade Davis. Unfortunately, his spring training data shows a marked drop in velocity.

Conventional wisdom holds that spring training data has little predictive value with respect to the upcoming season. Teams with terrific spring records regularly flop once the games count, and vice-versa. Players who were tearing up the Cactus and Citrus Leagues, often struggle when opponents start utilizing scouting reports against them.

Yet, there are a few things that can signal what’s to come in the upcoming season. One of those significant factors is a change in velocity from pitchers.

Gain five mph on your fastball like Kansas City Royals reliever Chien-Ming Wang has this spring, and analysts expect sharply improved performance during the season. Losing heat on your fastball—like KC Royals closer Greg Holland did last spring—is often a signal that a poor season, or injury, lies in the near future.

Unfortunately, Wade Davis appears to have lost approximately 3 mph off his fastball his spring according to data compiled by Brooks Baseball:

As you can see from the above chart, Wade Davis has lost velocity across the board. According to Brooks Baseball’s tabular data, Davis’ fourseam fastball is down to 93.61 mph from 96.47 last season, his curve registered 81.59 mph this spring down from 84.89 mph in 2016, and his cutter is down to 90.42 mph from 92.71 mph.

I’m hoping that Davis is holding himself back this spring to save himself for the season. But, if he’s not, his lost velocity suggests he won’t be the dominating closer that KC Royals fans have begun to take for granted.

After Davis’ velocity decline this spring, I confess I will closely monitor his pitch f/x numbers over the next few weeks. Last year, Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost had Wade Davis ready to step in when Greg Holland’s arm troubles became too much to bear in September. He won’t have that luxury this season.

I’d hate to see the Kansas City Royals lose a shut-down closer to Tommy John surgery for the second year in a row.

It’s premature to get truly concerned about Wade Davis at this point. But, f his velocity does not increase in the next few weeks, it could damage the KC Royals hopes of repeating as champions in 2016.