This week’s report focuses on two of the three major studio releases currently slated for November 15. We’ll offer up forecasts for Warner Bros.’ The Good Liar at a later date, but for now, here’s our initial outlook for the Sony and Fox openers.

Charlie’s Angels

Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

PROS:

Kristen Stewart and Naomi Scott — the latter off her breakout role in Aladdin — provide notable leads in this latest reboot of the 1970s television series. Names like those and that of director Elizabeth Banks (Pitch Perfect franchise) will hopefully bolster appeal to a young female audience not familiar with the series or the feature films of the early aughts.





The recently released single “Don’t Call Me Angel” from Ariana Grande, Lana Del Rey, and Miley Cyrus could provide marketing synergy over the next eight weeks after it scored very positive results across social media.





The demand for more high profile / tentpole films led by empowering female characters could help this stand out during the holidays with multiple generations of women if reviews and audience reception are strong enough.

CONS:

While the first two feature films were domestic hits in 2000 and 2003, earning $125.3 million and $100.8 million respectively, it remains to be seen how in-demand another reboot of the property is among young and adult female audiences. Much of that audience will have a fair number of choices in November between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Last Christmas, and Frozen II. Initial comparisons include Sony’s own Men In Black International, which similarly re-casted its franchise in an effort to reignite the brand with a youthful slant.





Although very preliminary, early sales trends at various ticketing outlets appear soft. There’s still plenty of time for that to change, but marketing may have some work ahead in terms of converting film awareness into interest as the next eight weeks progress.

Ford v Ferrari

Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

PROS:

The combined star appeal of Matt Damon and Christian Bale is a major driver behind this biopic, as is the success of director James Mangold (Logan, 3:10 to Yuma, Walk the Line). The turnout by gearheads and potential appeal to both men and women underscores a potentially diverse audience.





Counter-programming against holiday blockbuster fare is a very encouraging play, particularly given the success of Bohemian Rhapsody in a similar corridor last year. Trailer reactions and early social trends are indicative of a leggy crowd-pleaser in the making.

CONS:

It’s tough to rule out some crossover for the target adult male audience between this and Terminator: Dark Fate, opening one week later, should that sci-fi pic generate positive reception.





Appeal to adult female audiences could be hindered upfront if Charlie’s Angels does end up taking off with that demographic.

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor 9/27/2019 Abominable $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,500,000 $80,000,000 4,100 Universal 10/4/2019 Joker $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 $103,000,000 $210,000,000 4,200 Warner Bros. 10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 $70,000,000 United Artists Releasing 10/11/2019 The Current War (Expansion) n/a n/a n/a 101 Studios 10/11/2019 Gemini Man $26,000,000 – $31,000,000 $28,000,000 4% $85,000,000 Paramount 10/11/2019 Jexi $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000 -11% $25,000,000 -14% Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One 10/18/2019 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $37,000,000 $110,000,000 Disney 10/18/2019 Zombieland 2: Double Tap $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 $30,000,000 $77,000,000 Sony / Columbia 10/25/2019 Black and Blue $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000 $35,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems 10/25/2019 Countdown n/a n/a n/a STX 10/25/2019 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a n/a Roadside Attractions 11/1/2019 Arctic Dogs $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $7,000,000 $24,500,000 Entertainment Studios 11/1/2019 Harriet n/a n/a n/a Focus Features 11/1/2019 Motherless Brooklyn $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 n/a n/a Warner Bros. 11/1/2019 Terminator: Dark Fate $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000 $85,000,000 Paramount 11/8/2019 Doctor Sleep $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $92,000,000 Warner Bros. 11/8/2019 Last Christmas $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $15,000,000 $80,000,000 Universal 11/8/2019 Midway $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000 $47,000,000 Lionsgate 11/8/2019 Playing with Fire $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000 $33,000,000 Paramount 11/15/2019 All Rise n/a n/a n/a Entertainment Studios 11/15/2019 Charlie’s Angels (2019) $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $29,000,000 NEW $78,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia 11/15/2019 The Good Liar $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 n/a n/a Warner Bros. 11/15/2019 Ford v. Ferrari $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $32,000,000 NEW $115,000,000 NEW Fox

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report