Most members of the foreign-policy establishment, aside from aspiring TED Talk speaker Benjamin Netanyahu and legal eagle Rudy Giuliani, worry that pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal could have catastrophic consequences. With the May 12 deadline for Donald Trump to make a decision on “the worst deal ever” fast approaching, experts have warned that if the accord is dissolved, Iran could resume nuclear activities beyond the pact’s limits, in addition to potentially taking steps to retaliate, such as testing ballistic missiles or supporting militant groups abroad. European parties to the agreement are unlikely to withdraw their own support, allowing Iran to maintain access to world markets without U.S. involvement in the current verification regime. But of course, with Trump being Trump, no one is totally sure what to expect come the end of the week. While the president has certainly followed through on threats before, famously withdrawing from the Paris climate accord, he’s also ranted and raved and then backed down, as in the case of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he vowed to pull out of on the campaign trail and is instead currently renegotiating. Wall Street, however, is bracing for the worst:

Energy markets are indicating that the U.S. is likely to pull out of the accord and reimpose sanctions on Tehran, according to Dubai’s largest bank, Emirates NBD.

U.S. sanctions on Iran could slash global oil supplies by 800,000 barrels per day, according to a report by Emirates NBD. Iran is one of the world’s biggest crude producers—when it’s allowed to sell it. Fears of such a supply cut, coming at a time when major oil countries have already reduced production on their own, have caused oil prices to climb above $70 per barrel for the first time since November 2014.

“The Iranian nuclear deal is dead in the water and a Trump torpedo is fast approaching,” Stephen Brennock, an oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, wrote in a recent note to clients. With expectations for the worst possible outcome already baked in, Tim Fox, head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD, told CNBC, “Anything that’s slightly less than that—by which I mean he may delay his decision, or he may not impose the same amount of sanctions previously—I think markets would react favorably to that, given that markets are currently pricing in probably the worst-case scenario.”

If the deal-maker-in-chief’s tariff-negotiation strategy is any guide, he may be the only one who knows which way the winds will inevitably blow. With various U.S. allies pushing for exemptions from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, Axios reported that there was “widespread confusion, and the Trump administration has given no clear guidance for how they could get exemptions.” Of the Iran deal, Trump has helpfully said, “We’ll see what happens . . . I’m not telling you what I’m doing, but a lot of people think they know.” One person who certainly thinks he knows? Trump’s pal Rudy, who during a conference on Saturday organized by the Organization of Iranian-American Communities, asked the crowd rhetorically, “What’s going to happen to that agreement?” and then pantomimed spitting on a piece of paper meant to be the accord. Then again, according to the president, the recently unretired prosecutor has been wrong about his facts before.