Regional defence budgets have surged dramatically in recent years.

India is spending up big on expanding and modernising its military. China is exercising its new-found muscle with provocative manoeuvres in the East and South China Seas. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan – a litany of neighbouring nations – are making big ticket purchases including fleets of new submarines and stealth fighters.

Just like Australia.

The Australian Defence Force is embarking on two of its most expensive defence procurements ever – the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and the replacement submarine project.

The Soryu class submarine is the favoured but controversial contender for a $20 billion project. The proposal is for a fast-tracked “off the shelf” purchase made without the rigorous risk analysis and transparency a formal tender process normally entails.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is a much-delayed and over-budget stealth warplane which also bypassed formal procurement processes. Now fears about its fundamental capabilities are continuously being raised.

We’ve already had an undeniable string of enormously costly defence matériel procurement disasters: The Seasprite naval helicopter program — abandoned. | The helicopter dock landing ship conversions — scrapped. | Tiger attack helicopters — wracked by turmoil.

Defence insiders say we simply cannot afford to get it wrong again.

ARE WE ON THE BRINK OF WAR? Academic compares 1914 to now

So will Australia be ready for the next war? Some analysts say maybe not.

Critics say Australia faces serious weaknesses in its ability to sustain any fight for its far-flung borders. Primarily the problem is the purchase of equipment that doesn’t meet our nation’s needs.

The who, the how, the what and the where of any future conflict is – of course - unknown.

But there is plenty that we do know. Any attack on our interests will likely come from the north. We know we have key economic assets and trade routes through areas such as the East Timor Sea.

Here is a hypothetical scenario that presents a situation our soldiers, sailors, airmen — and politicians — could find themselves in.

It’s a fictionalised account, aimed at making the issues surrounding our fighters and submarines easier to comprehend. But defence industry insiders say it is a credible scenario based on valid assumptions.

Are we setting ourselves up to fail?