00:41 Time for Buyout of NC Beach Town Battered by Weather, Climate Change? Researchers at Wester Carolina University say North Topsail Beach is so battered by the weather, it mi

At a Glance The analysis by Western Carolina University says the government could save $2.8 million over 30 years.

North Topsail Mayor Dan Tuman refutes the analysis and says any buyout is "wishful thinking."

The barrier island community of North Topsail, North Carolina, has a long history of being battered by storm surge, erosion and flooding from hurricanes.

More than $10 million was spent on recovery efforts in the beachside community in the wake of Hurricane Florence in 2018, WWAY reported. The city itself spent $1 million on reconstruction.

Significant damage also happened during Hurricane Fran, a Category 3 storm that battered the eastern seaboard in early September 1996. The storm damaged three quarters of the homes on Topsail Island and breached the island in several locations.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/ntbfran.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/ntbfran.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273 400w, https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/ntbfran.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551 800w" > Damage in North Topsail Beach in 1996 from Hurricane Fran. (U.S. Geological Survey)

Other storms to hit North Topsail over the years include Hurricane Bonnie in 1998 and Irene in 2011.

In light of storms such as these and the threat of erosion from increasingly rising seas, city officials have contemplated projects to protect the shoreline. The town recently installed a continuous sandbag revetment along 2,300 feet of shoreline.

However, instead of building protective infrastructure such as seawalls, revetments and bulkheads to protect vulnerable homes at the north end of the beach town, an analysis released Monday by Western Carolina University says it would be cheaper for the government to simply buy out the 347 properties most at risk.

According to the study released by the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, buying the properties would save an estimated $2.8 million dollars over 30 years. The analysts determined that it would cost the government $30.1 million to buy the targeted properties. Property acquisition, tax revenue loss, structure demolition and removal, and sandbag removal costs would bring the total cost of the buyout to $54.8 million with inflation.

This is compared to what the analysts say it would cost to pay for new infrastructure over 30 years, including shoreline stabilization projects and sandbag maintenance, which would total $57.6 million.

"We have used a very conservative approach to estimating the costs," the authors wrote. "We assume that owners will receive full, assessed value for their property and that all properties will be fully viable for 30 years (given the exposure to storms and hazards of the target area, this is highly unlikely even with coastal protection). Finally, we assume that the properties will appreciate in value over the time period, again, a generous assumption."

At least six of the community's 11.1 miles of beaches are covered by the Coastal Barrier Resources Act, or CBRA, which was enacted by Congress in 1982 to discourage development on barrier islands. Because of the designation, residents are unable to participate in the National Flood Insurance Program. They also would not be reimbursed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) funding in the event of a disaster.

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North Topsail Beach Mayor Dan Tuman told Coastal Review the study's data is incorrect and any buyout is just "wishful thinking."

“At first blush, [lead author Robert Young] is uninformed of the area that this report concerns. Had he consulted with the Science Panel of the Coastal Resources Commission (CRC) and the personnel of the North Carolina Division of Coastal Management, the inlet hazard area that the town is developing engineering plans to protect is much larger than his report covers," Tuman said in an email sent to Coastal Review, noting that $30 million would not be enough to purchase all the properties in the inlet hazard area, where homes are valued at $100 million.

Young countered that the zone that Young is referring to is larger than the study's focus, which comprised a zone of about 40 acres.

Tuman also noted that any buyout program fails without 100 percent cooperation. More than half of the targeted properties (240 units) are condominiums.

“It works only if all the property owners agree and people are not going to agree,” Tuman told the News and Observer.

Young said he hopes the study will initiate conversations in coastal towns about the best solutions for each community at risk from climate change.

“What we really hope it will do is give town officials across the state something to think about and something to talk about,” Young told the News and Observer. “Let’s have an open discussion about what is and isn’t feasible.”