Could the next government be more pro-business?

Investors seem to think that any government will be better than the mash-up that fell apart this week, a mismatched coalition of Mr. Salvini’s League and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement. The previous government threatened to break European Union budget rules, cozied up to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and has been unable to budge Italy’s growth rate above zero.

Some investors may be betting that the Five Star Movement will ditch Mr. Salvini’s partisans and instead join the center-left Democratic Party. At the very least, the argument goes, such a government would be less likely to lead Italy out of the euro and back to the lira.

Other investors may be wagering on new elections, which polls show that Mr. Salvini would win. He would form a government that would be populist in its rhetoric but — so investors hope — pro-business in its policies.

That may be wishful thinking.

“Many people perceive that anything is better than the current government, even one led by a far-right leader,” said Lorenzo Codogno , former director general of the Italian Treasury and now an independent consultant. He noted, though, “I think the risks are underestimated.”