CP Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer are shown in a composite image.

Climate change is poised to become a central issue in the next federal election, a new poll suggests. According to numbers from Abacus Data released Monday, the issue is among the top three considered most important to voters this fall — and that could be good news for Liberals. The firm asked respondents to identify the most pressing matters from a list of 17 issues that ranged from public transit and income inequality to the deficit and border security. ‘Central place in the public debate’ Thirty-five per cent of respondents identified the cost of living as a top concern, while health care finished second with 34 per cent, and climate change finished with 29 per cent. According to the report, it marks the first time in the firm’s research that climate change has captured “such a central place in the public debate.” Rounding out the top six issues, 27 per cent chose taxes, while 26 per cent identified housing affordability. Twenty-five per cent selected “good jobs and wages.” Indigenous reconciliation was the issue least likely to be seen as moving votes this fall. Chosen by just five per cent of respondents, it was below “backroom deals” at six per cent — a possible indication the SNC-Lavalin affair won’t be as top-of-mind for voters as some parties may hope. “Standing up” to U.S. President Donald Trump was identified as a top issue by just eight per cent.

Abacus Data A graph from an Abacus Data poll released on July 15, 2019.

With polls already pointing to a tight race between Liberals and Conservatives, Abacus Data also asked about the voting intentions of respondents. The numbers give an indication of which party is seen to have an advantage on each issue. Among those who prioritize climate change as a top concern, 41 per cent said they intend to vote Liberal, while 21 per cent chose the Greens. New Democrats scored 18 per cent support, while the Conservatives are well back at 13 per cent. Liberals also outrank Tories on health care with 34 per cent to 29 per cent, respectively, as well as on the matter of housing affordability. However, on the top issue ― the cost of living ― the Tories outperform Liberals 38 per cent to 30 per cent, and also score higher on taxes, and “good jobs and wages.” Tories also have some big advantages over Liberals on less popular issues, including the deficit, managing immigration, and border security.

Abacus Data A graph from an Abacus Data poll released on July 15, 2019.

On the question of reducing discrimination — another issue in the bottom six — Liberals are ahead at 46 per cent, compared to just 18 per cent for Tories. The numbers suggest the NDP does not have an issue that the party truly owns, though it scores best on income inequality and Indigenous reconciliation. According to the results,Liberals would fare better if the election campaign centres on climate change, housing affordability, health care, and tackling discrimination, while Tories would perform better if the campaign boils down to pocketbook issues and questions about immigration and the border. While Tories may struggle if climate change becomes the defining issue of the campaign, Abacus Data CEO David Coletto also thinks there are risks for Liberals on the topic. Though Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government implemented a carbon price of $20 per tonne (rising to $50 in 2022), his government has also championed resource projects and purchased the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project.