Turkey's action in Syria could see the rebirth of Islamic State

Turkey's action in Syria could see the rebirth of Islamic State

Turkey says its offensive against Kurdish militias allied with the United States will create stability and security along its border with Syria.

Ankara has even dubbed the air and ground attack "Operation Peace Spring".

But many senior British and American officials who have spent years involved in the Syria conflict predict the action - taken without the support of any notable ally - will only make an already dangerous and volatile region even more of a disaster zone.

First, from the view point of Europe and the US, is the impact this operation will have on some 11,000 suspected Islamic State fighters detained in camps guarded by Kurds in the northeast of the country. This includes around 2,000 militants regarded as "hardcore" jihadists.

The US military appears to be taking into custody some of the highest value captured militants, including two men from Britain who are accused of being part of the so-called Beatles gang that kidnapped and killed Western hostages, including Britons.


But what about the rest?

A closer look at the Turkish conflict in Syria

President Donald Trump says Turkey will have responsibility for them. The Turkish authorities says it will share this responsibility with all the countries - including Britain, France, Germany and Belgium - that have nationals in the camps.

There is no sign of such cooperation happening any time soon meaning any number of worse outcomes could unfold.

Already Kurdish guards at the detention centres and a number of sprawling camps filled with some 70,000 Islamic State-linked women and children are signalling they will switch guard duties for supporting fellow Kurds fighting the Turkish advance.

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This makes the chance of a mass prison break likely, throwing open the possibility of IS regaining control of territory just months after the collapse of their so-called caliphate, or escapees melting into the desert to resurface anywhere in the world to cause harm.

Another equally grim possibility is that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, betrayed as they see it by the US, turn to the other main players in this fight - the Syrian regime of President Assad.

That would place the fate of this high-threat jihadist population in the hands of a country regarded as a foe by many in the West.

Whichever way you look there is a bad option when it comes to IS detainees and dependants.

Exclusive: Turkey's UK ambassador speaks to Sky News

But it's not like this is a surprise.

Britain and its allies have delayed and delayed making any kind of workable plan to resolve the intractable dilemma of what to do with captured IS fighters for the past two years.

The UK has repeatedly said it would not allow them to return home given the difficulty of gathering a prosecutable case or of monitoring and attempting to rehabilitate those who cannot be charged. But a policy of ignore should not have been an option either.

President Trump has asked for his allies to take charge of their own nationals in the camps, so on that level his frustration at the quagmire northeastern Syria had become can be understood.

But his actions on Sunday effectively paving the way for the Turkish assault in a reversal of US policy following a phone call with President Erdogan cannot be so easily explained.

The other strategic effect of Turkey's actions - and a main aim as far as Ankara is concerned - will be to push back Kurdish forces and families from territory they have held with support of the US military as well as other coalition forces, including the UK's.

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This means a group, trained and armed by the United States, that saw many thousands of members die in the fight against Islamic State, will be forced to fight or flee.

Ankara regards the Kurdish YPG as a terrorist organisation that threatens its national security but the Kurds have been an ally to the US-led coalition against Islamic State.

In not blocking Turkey from launching its attack, President Trump has destroyed any sense the US is a country that protects those who take risks on its behalf.

Finally there is the threat of civilian casualties from the Turkish bombardment, despite assurances from the authorities that they are taking action to prevent collateral damage.

Ankara says it wants to create a safe zone along its border for two million Syrian refugees to return to their home country but if this results in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Syrian Kurds from that area then the potential for heightened ethnic tensions is acute.