Each day new obstacles seem to almost miraculously fall out of Crist's path. Crist: America's luckiest pol

After a years-long slump, Charlie Crist is starting to look again like one of the luckiest men in professional politics.

The party-switching ex-Republican governor’s name had largely become a punch line in Florida political circles, but he’s now not only seriously pursuing a new gubernatorial campaign, each day new obstacles seem to almost miraculously fall out of his path.


His most formidable potential Democratic primary opponents – former state CFO Alex Sink and former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz – have quietly signaled they are leaning against running. In Sink’s case, that reluctance heightened after her husband, the well-liked Tampa attorney and former gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride, succumbed to a heart attack in December.

Crist has the admiration – and appreciation – of a White House that considered his 2012 endorsement key. And if party-jumping often leads to political oblivion, Crist is proving that timing is everything; not only does he seem to be cruising to the nomination, he would face an increasingly beleaguered incumbent, Gov. Rick Scott, who suddenly seems eminently beatable.

“It’s hard at the moment to imagine any scenario where Charlie Crist is not the Democratic nominee for governor in 2014,” said Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who was President Barack Obama’s senior adviser in Florida in 2012.

( Also on POLITICO: Fla. poll: Crist crushes Gov. Scott)

There are still state and national Democrats who remain skeptical of Crist’s strength, worrying about how he might stand up to a withering character assault from Scott. Some have approached Sen. Bill Nelson, who won a third term last November, about the prospect of entering the governor’s race.

But several sources familiar with the 70-year-old Nelson’s thinking say that while he hasn’t totally ruled out a gubernatorial bid, he’s loath to hit the campaign trail again so soon after winning reelection.

On the general election front, things look perhaps even brighter for Crist. Two surveys this week – from Quinnipiac University and the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling – showed Scott trailing Crist by double digits in a general-election matchup.

On top of Scott’s persistent vegetative state in the polls, several recent stumbles have worked particularly to Crist’s benefit.

( Also on POLITICO: Scott plans $100M campaign vs. Crist)

Strategists in both parties agree that Crist’s two biggest general-election vulnerabilities would be his reputation as a political flip-flopper and his connections to a state GOP corruption scandal. Former state Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer, a Crist appointee, pleaded guilty last month to money laundering.

“His strength is untested, and there are a lot of Democrats whispering about who in the party would be stronger statewide with the base,” said one source close the White House, who added that Team Obama “continues to have good feelings about Crist as a thoughtful guy.”

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But Scott has been buffeted by political troubles that undermine both lines of attack. On the one hand, the conservative Republican is drawing heat from the right for tweaking his longtime opposition to federal health care reform, and endorsing an expansion of the Medicaid program in Florida. Scott has also been tagged as a flip-flopper for endorsing pay raises for teachers and bonuses for state employees, after having cracked down on public spending during the first half of his term.

What’s more, Scott’s administration was also rocked by its own embarrassing legal situation when Jennifer Carroll, his 2010 running mate, resigned as lieutenant governor last week amid a massive investigation into an allegedly fraudulent charity she was involved with.

Add it all up, and the road to a Crist comeback looks wider than ever, as a man who bailed out of the GOP in 2010 now faces a nearly clear primary field and a general election fight against an unpopular governor who’s bleeding badly.

A source close to Scott conceded that the governor is running behind, a fact his own polling confirms, but waved off the idea that it’s a double-digit gap, and said the public polling is not using a likely-voter screen that is effective for an off-cycle election.

“We wouldn’t deny at this point that we’re behind Charlie Crist… [but] are definitely within striking distance,” the source said, adding: “Frankly, we’d love to run against Charlie Crist.”

Indeed, Scott’s team circulated to potential donors a $100 million budget figure a few months ago as what they would expect to need against Crist – underscoring the potential he has to boost the Republican governor’s fundraising.

“Running against Charlie is the precise contrast juxtaposition we want – it’s not about personality, it becomes about” performance, the source said.

“We’ve got a good story to tell,” the source said, adding that when voters are reminded of things like the housing downturn and the economic downturn that took place under Crist, his numbers take a dive.

“We intend to make his life miserable all the way through,” the source added.

Among Democrats, only two questions remain: Will Crist really run? And does he have a glass jaw?

On the first question, Democrats say Crist is likely to make a final decision on running for governor over the summer. Thanks to his universal name ID and dearth of candidates, he believes he can take some time to make up his mind. At present, his only primary competition is state Sen. Nan Rich, a well-liked legislator with scant statewide presence.

John Morgan, the Democratic trial lawyer and fundraiser who currently employs Crist at his firm, said his colleague has yet to decide whether he’s ready to give up a litigator’s cushy lifestyle for a grueling challenge to Scott.

“I hate to be crass about it, but he’s a guy who’s never made money in his life and you kind of get into private practice and he’s doing well with us. That’s something that he’s weighing right now – ‘Do I need to get back into it?’ ” Morgan said. “The great thing about Crist is, he has $100 million worth of name ID and $100 million worth of goodwill with the electorate.”

Morgan said that he had recently dined with Nelson and asked the senator if he might run for governor, following in the path of the late, beloved Democratic senator-turned-governor Lawton Chiles.

“He wasn’t jumping up-and-down enthusiastic about it,” Morgan said.

As for whether Crist can stand up to the Scott War Machine, his allies scoff at the question. There’s no question Crist has his vulnerabilities: he has a record of taking stances on abortion, guns, gay rights, the Affordable Care Act, and more, that put him at odds with core Democratic constituencies.

But if Crist is open to attacks that he has Etch-A-Sketched his way into the Democratic Party, admirers think the charge is overstated – and point out that Scott has his own reversals to explain now, too.

“He’s flip-flopped on virtually every issue. He basically followed the tea party line blindly and reflexively, and now realizes he’s unpopular and he’s blindly following the other side,” charged former Democratic state Sen. Dan Gelber, who worked with – and against – Crist in the legislature. “At least Charlie Crist, when he was a Republican, was doing things that were very socially moderate. Crist showed a much greater level of consistency than Scott has.”

Another Florida Democrat characterized the electorate’s view of Crist in these wry terms: “They think he is a nice man, who might not be the smartest guy, might not be the most forceful leader, might not have any principles – but they are OK with it since he is always smiling on their TV talking about Florida and how great ‘she’ is.”

There’s some reason for skepticism: a Democratic poll taken at the beginning of February by the firm Hamilton Campaigns suggested Crist would be vulnerable in a primary to a blunt assault on his political authenticity. Unlike recent public surveys, that poll – taken for undisclosed private clients – showed Scott and Crist tied in a general election.

But Crist’s vulnerabilities among Democrats matter much less if there isn’t a rough-and-tumble primary.

In Gelber’s view, the only candidate who could pose a real threat to Crist in the primary is Sink, thanks to her high statewide profile: “If Sink demurs, then I don’t see anyone else challenging Charlie Crist in a substantial way.”