It was Dec. 20, 1981, the final Sunday of the NFL regular season, and the NFC Central title was on the line. The Buccaneers were in Detroit, where the Lions hadn’t lost all season.

The Lions, who were favored by a touchdown, took a 7-3 lead in the second quarter and were on the verge of extending their lead until Bucs safety Cedric Brown intercepted Eric Hipple and returned the ball to the Tampa Bay 16-yard line. On the next play, Doug Williams slung a pass to Kevin House down the right sideline for an 84-yard touchdown. Lee Roy Selmon helped preserve the upset, forcing a fumble in the fourth quarter that David Logan returned for a touchdown.

“This is all I wanted for Christmas,” said Williams, who completed 8 of 19 passes for 172 yards.

It was one of the first great wins in team history.

It also capped the first great season by a Bucs quarterback.

In fact, in the 36 seasons since, no one has had a better regular season. No one.

Not Brad Johnson. Not Jeff Garcia. Not Josh Freeman.

Not even Jameis Winston.

Yes, Winston set the team single-season records for passing yards (4,090) and touchdowns (28) in 2016. Even so, Williams’ 1981 remains the standard.

RELATED STORY: Winston can set Bucs career passing records in 2018

How can that be? It speaks partly to the Bucs’ inability to identify and develop quality quarterbacks. But it also speaks to how much the NFL has changed since the early 1980s. The game is barely recognizable. Then, teams threw more interceptions than touchdowns. Today, they complete a higher percentage of their passes, gain more passing yards per game, throw more touchdowns and fewer interceptions and aren’t sacked as often. In 1981, one quarterback (Dan Fouts) gained more than 4,000 passing yards. In 2017, eight quarterbacks did it.

Statistic 1981 2017 Average completion percentage 54.6 62.1 Average passing yards/game 204.4 224.4 Average touchdown passes/game 1.3 1.4 Average interceptions/game 1.4 0.8 Average sack percentage 6.7 6.4

We’re used to quarterbacks compiling video-game-like numbers, so Williams’ 3,563 yards, 19 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 76.8 passer rating in 1981 look wholly ordinary, even Jay Cutler-esque. In reality, his season was comparable to Joe Montana’s (3,565 yards, 19 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and 88.4 passer rating). The playoffs were a different story. Williams' Bucs went on to lose 38-0 to the Cowboys in the divisional round, and Montana’s 49ers went on to win the Super Bowl.

By themselves, Williams’ yards, touchdowns, interceptions and passer rating in 1981 don’t accurately reflect the quality of his season. To properly rank it, we need to adjust for the era in which Williams played. In other words: How much value did he add in 1981 over an average quarterback?

To measure that, I consulted a statistic called adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), which is basically a souped-up version of yards per pass attempt (Y/A). Why ANY/A? While completion percentage and passer rating averages have risen steadily over time, ANY/A has remained relatively constant. It rewards quarterbacks for touchdowns and penalizes them for interceptions and sacks. Of the nonproprietary passing statistics out there, it is the most strongly correlated to wins.

Here's the formula: (passing yards + 20*(passing touchdowns) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards) / (pass attempts + sacks).

In 1981, Williams gained 6.50 ANY/A, which ranked fourth, behind Ken Anderson, Fouts and Terry Bradshaw and ahead of Montana. The NFL average was 5.00.

To determine the value Williams added over the average quarterback, I adopted the methodology Chase Stuart of Football Perspective used in a recent post on the subject and factored in the number of times Williams dropped back to pass. In 489 dropbacks, Williams gained 3,179 adjusted net yards, which was 734 yards over average. Only Fouts and Anderson gained more.

By this measure, Dan Marino’s 1984 (2,271 adjusted net yards over average), Peyton Manning’s 2004 (2,113 yards), Manning’s 2013 (2,031 yards) and Tom Brady’s 2007 (2,014 yards) are the best passing seasons since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Williams’ 1981 ranks 175th.

The second-best season by a Bucs quarterback? Josh Freeman’s 2010 in which he gained 607 adjusted net yards over average.

At the other end of the spectrum from Williams are Vinny Testaverde and Trent Dilfer. Testaverde’s 1988 season (873 adjusted net yards below average) is the worst in Bucs’ history, and Dilfer’s 1995 season (785 yards below average) is second worst. While Freeman’s 2010 season was one of the best, he followed it up with one of the worst. In 2011, he produced 672 yards below average.

Winston’s best season? It wasn’t his record-breaking 2016. He actually produced 144 yards BELOW average that season. His best season was last season, in which he gained 375 yards over average.

RELATED STORY: Was Winston the most underrated quarterback of 2017?

Assuming Winston has no other off-field issues, his career trajectory suggests that he eventually will put together a season that eclipses Williams’. To do so, he will need to have a campaign comparable to Carson Wentz’s 2017. In 13 games for the Eagles, Wentz gained 244.1 yards per game, threw 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions and posted a 101.9 passer rating. His 715 adjusted net yards over average ranked sixth (Brady led with 1,018 yards).

The table below ranks every Bucs quarterback who has attempted 100 passes in a season:

Rank Player Season ANY/A NFL average Difference Dropbacks Value over average 1 Doug Williams 1981 6.50 5.00 1.50 489 734 2 Josh Freeman 2010 6.94 5.73 1.21 502 607 3 Brad Johnson 2002 6.56 5.35 1.21 472 571 4 Jeff Garcia 2007 6.98 5.52 1.46 346 505 5 Craig Erickson 1994 6.32 5.38 0.94 421 396 6 Jameis Winston 2017 6.70 5.91 0.79 475 375 7 Jeff Garcia 2008 6.47 5.70 0.77 399 307 8 Brian Griese 2004 6.42 5.63 0.79 362 286 9 Doug Williams 1980 5.30 4.87 0.43 544 234 10 Josh Freeman 2012 6.30 5.93 0.37 584 216 11 Brad Johnson 2003 5.55 5.20 0.35 590 207 12 Steve DeBerg 1987 5.66 5.04 0.62 295 183 13 Tim Rattay 2006 6.86 5.38 1.48 105 155 14 Trent Dilfer 1997 5.46 5.16 0.30 418 125 15 Doug Williams 1982 5.12 4.76 0.36 318 114 16 Jameis Winston 2015 6.44 6.26 0.18 562 101 17 Steve DeBerg 1984 5.18 5.00 0.18 544 98 18 Doug Williams 1978 4.41 4.03 0.38 200 76 19 Ryan Fitzpatrick 2017 6.32 5.91 0.41 170 70 20 Steve DeBerg 1985 4.92 4.86 0.06 389 23 21 Luke McCown 2007 5.65 5.52 0.13 154 20 22 Shaun King 1999 4.82 5.18 -0.36 157 -57 23 Vinny Testaverde 1992 4.72 4.88 -0.16 393 -63 24 Byron Leftwich 2009 4.94 5.65 -0.71 109 -77 25 Brad Johnson 2004 4.90 5.63 -0.73 111 -81 26 Mike Glennon 2014 5.74 6.14 -0.40 219 -88 27 Brian Griese 2005 4.76 5.34 -0.58 186 -108 28 Vinny Testaverde 1990 5.01 5.29 -0.28 403 -113 29 Chris Simms 2005 5.01 5.34 -0.33 342 -113 30 Trent Dilfer 1998 5.05 5.31 -0.26 456 -119 31 Shaun King 2000 4.95 5.21 -0.26 465 -121 32 Steve DeBerg 1992 3.94 4.88 -0.94 133 -125 33 Jameis Winston 2016 5.98 6.22 -0.24 602 -144 34 Vinny Testaverde 1987 4.21 5.04 -0.83 183 -152 35 Doug Williams 1979 4.14 4.61 -0.47 404 -190 36 Brad Johnson 2001 4.81 5.19 -0.38 603 -229 37 Trent Dilfer 1999 4.28 5.18 -0.90 270 -243 38 Jack Thompson 1983 4.4 5.00 -0.60 462 -277 39 Craig Erickson 1993 4.54 5.11 -0.57 492 -280 40 Steve Young 1985 3.00 4.86 -1.86 159 -296 41 Brian Griese 2008 4.09 5.70 -1.61 193 -311 42 Chris Simms 2006 2.35 5.38 -3.03 110 -333 43 Gary Huff 1977 1.40 3.55 -2.15 153 -376 44 Chris Chandler 1991 1.76 5.18 -3.42 114 -390 45 Mike Glennon 2013 4.98 5.87 -0.89 456 -406 46 Josh Johnson 2009 2.54 5.65 -3.11 136 -423 47 Mike Rae 1978 1.17 4.03 -2.86 155 -444 48 Vinny Testaverde 1989 4.34 5.24 -0.90 518 -466 49 Steve Spurrier 1976 2.80 4.07 -1.27 343 -498 50 Steve Young 1986 3.73 4.96 -1.23 410 -504 51 Trent Dilfer 1996 3.99 5.14 -1.15 510 -587 52 Josh Freeman 2009 3.69 5.65 -1.96 310 -608 53 Bruce Gradkowski 2006 3.65 5.38 -1.73 353 -611 54 Vinny Testaverde 1991 3.45 5.18 -1.73 361 -625 55 Josh Freeman 2011 4.76 5.90 -1.14 580 -661 56 Josh McCown 2014 4.30 6.14 -1.84 363 -668 57 Trent Dilfer 1995 3.71 5.41 -1.70 462 -785 58 Vinny Testaverde 1988 3.27 5.02 -1.75 499 -873

Contact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tometrics.



