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Just as much unsteadiness is emanating from within the NDP itself, as strategists debate the merits of a snap election when opponents are at their weakest, Horgan’s popularity is at its height and the economy is still strong.

“I think with minority governments, any time we could go (to an election),” said Bob Dewar, the NDP’s 2017 campaign director and special advisor to the premier. “Especially 28 months into it, which is much longer than an average minority government.

“We have a CASA agreement that says we’ll be here four and a half years. So if all things were equal, I think that might happen. But I’m not sure how equal they are anymore, with Andrew saying he’s not going to run again and the fact he’s stepping down as leader.”

Photo by Michael J.P. Hall / PNG

Officially, the premier says he’s not enthusiastic about an early trip to the polls.

“No one wants an election except the hyper-partisans,” he said. “But regular people are happy. The books are balanced. Services are being delivered. Medical Services Plan premiums are gone. People are happy about a lot of things. So why would I disrupt that?”

Unofficially, his party, like the Liberals and Greens, are planning for just that scenario in mid- to late 2020.

The case for an election

Some NDP strategists can boil the merits of an election down to one simple point: Better to go now, before things get worse.

Horgan’s approval rating of 51 per cent is as high as it has ever been, making the premier a popular asset, rather than a scandal-plagued liability, on the campaign trail.