Sen. Susan Collins told POLITICO earlier this month she would decide whether to run again next year. | M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO Elections Dems line up to take on Collins after Kavanaugh vote The Maine Republican could be facing her toughest election yet after her charged vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins landed herself at the top of Democrats’ 2020 target list when she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Now, Democrats just have to find someone who can beat her in Maine.

Whoever runs against Collins in the next election will be well-funded, thanks to a small-dollar rage-donating spree that put over $4 million in escrow for Collins’ 2020 opponent since she supported Kavanaugh. But that support is about to run up against the unique record of New England’s last remaining Republican senator, who has won by increasing margins in three straight reelection campaigns with a broad centrist coalition, including independents and Democrats who appreciate Collins’ bipartisan streak on issues such as Obamacare repeal.


That record is not intimidating a half-dozen Democrats who are already considering runs against Collins, though, arguing that she has shifted right and that the political landscape has changed drastically since President Donald Trump’s inauguration. Where Republicans see a unique politician who has defied Maine’s blue tint for decades, Democrats see in Collins a potential mirror image of ex-Sen. Mark Pryor, the once-popular Arkansas Democrat who won reelection unopposed in 2008 but lost six years later under the weight of an unpopular president and the ire of an invigorated Republican base.

“She's proving herself to be a very different kind of politician during at least the past two years,” said Sara Gideon, the Democratic speaker of the state House in Maine, who is considering a challenge to Collins in 2020.

There’s no consensus candidate waiting in the wings to take on Collins, though some Democrats are already buzzing about Jared Golden, the Marine veteran and state representative running against GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin in the northern half of the state. Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree is also seen as a potential top challenger, though she lost badly to Collins in 2002.

Several other Democrats have publicly expressed interest. In addition to Gideon, who told POLITICO she would think about it over the next month or two, Emily Cain, the executive director of EMILY’s List and a two-time congressional candidate in Maine, told the Portland Press Herald she would consider a bid. Adam Cote, the runner-up in this year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, told POLITICO he had received messages from people encouraging him to run and that he would consider a campaign after this year’s midterms.

“I would say the majority of Mainers, not just the majority of Democrats, were disappointed in the vote for Kavanaugh,” Cote said. (He added that while he thinks Democrats can “walk and chew gum at the same time,” it is important for the party to focus on the midterms before turning its full attention to Collins.)

Susan Rice, a former national security adviser to President Barack Obama, threw her name into the ring on Twitter shortly after the Senate on Saturday confirmed Kavanaugh to the court by a vote of 50 to 48. But two Maine Democrats, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, cast doubt on Rice as a viable candidate, saying she would be viewed skeptically by voters given her lack of long-term ties to the state, though she owns a home there.

Republicans, meanwhile, brush off the idea that any Democrat could be competitive against Collins two years from now, if she chooses to run for reelection. Collins, 65, told POLITICO earlier this month she would decide next year whether to run again.

“I did not do any kind of political calculation in making my decision. I have to apply my best judgment. I cannot weigh the political consequences. In this case it was obvious there were going to be people very angry at me no matter what I did. I have to do what I think is right, and that’s what I did," Collins told WCSH-TV.

Rick Bennett, former chairman of the Maine Republican Party, pointed out that Collins has faced credible, well-funded opponents in each of her previous reelection campaigns but has won by increasingly large double-digit margins. He said he expects another credible challenger two years from now but doesn’t view Collins as particularly vulnerable.

“She's essentially cleaned all their clocks,” Bennett said. “I think this is a lot of froth without a lot of substance behind it.”

Despite the flood of potential candidates, Democrats recognize the challenge of defeating Collins. The political environment in 2020 will be vastly different from today, with Trump on the ballot competing for Electoral College votes in Maine, where he won the 2nd Congressional District in 2016.

Collins got a hero’s welcome from the left in Maine last year after casting the decisive vote against an Obamacare repeal effort. Atthat time, it was Republicans who were furious with Collins, so much so that polling showed she could have lost a gubernatorial primary had she decided to run for that office in 2018.

Before her next election, Collins is likely to be a swing vote on a number of contentious issues in the next two years — particularly if Democrats take a majority in one or both chambers of Congress. Her future votes could counterbalance or outweigh her Kavanaugh support, though any controversial Supreme Court rulings featuring Kavanaugh in the next two years could lend more fuel to her opposition.

National Republicans have vowed to defend Collins. In a conversation with reporters Saturday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell called her race “my top priority.” President Donald Trump appeared moved by Collins’ support for Kavanaugh, too, telling The Washington Post: “I think what Susan Collins did for herself was incredibly positive. It showed her to be an honorable, incredible woman. I think she’s got a level of respect that’s unbelievable. I really mean it.”

David Farmer, a veteran Democratic operative in Maine, said there are too many variables at play to predict Collins’ vulnerability two years from now. But he added that most of those variables would have to fall in Democrats’ favor to give them a shot at unseating the Republican senator.

“To beat her, everyone would have to pull on the rope in the same direction, and then it's still a tough case,” Farmer said. “I think there are a number of names that would be credible against Collins, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy. It will be a very difficult race if she runs.”