This article is part of a series named Play Better. The aim is to conduct an in-depth analysis of certain common play patterns in Eternal and determine how we can improve as players. This Play Better analyses two boardstates that arose in the ETS Invitational Day 1.

Today’s ETS Invitational Day One broadcast on Stream gave us several very exciting and swingy games, as well as several boardstates to evaluate. This piece aims to evaluate the positions as deeply as possible. While the level of analysis done here is difficult to replicate in a game setting, thinking deeply about certain board states allows us to hone our decision-making calculus, which will improve our in-game decision-making.

Let’s start with something simple.

You are TJP Midrange against FJP Control (decklists here). You are aware of your Opponent’s list.

It is turn 3. You chose to play Awakened Student on Turn 2. Your Opponent merely Strategizes. It is now turn 3. The question is simple: do you play Kothon?

Phrased from the opposite perspective, the question is whether you should play around Hailstorm. To me, the answer is clearly no. You have more power in your hand for the following turn to activate Awakened Student, which means your Opponent only has a one-turn window to Hailstorm you for value – he must have it in his hand, as he only access to 3 power and cannot play other cards to dig for it. You develop 6 power on the board, and can put your Opponent to 16.

If you do get Hailstorm-ed, you have Svetya as a follow-up the following turn.

What happens if you don’t play Kothon? You lose the threat of 2 additional damage per turn if your Opponent does not have Hailstorm. You allow your Opponent the time to play a single-target removal spell without taking damage for the turn. Given your Opponent is a control deck and you’re the aggressor, I wouldn’t give my Opponent that one turn’s worth of tempo.

Essentially, if your opponent does not have Hailstorm, you let him off the hook. Even though he has 4 copies in his deck, it is still more likely he does not have it. I would not play around Hailstorm in this position.

Let’s now move on to something far more complicated.

Feln Control v Stonescar Gunslingers (decklists here)

Let’s imagine we’re Feln Control. We know we are facing Tinman’s Stonescar Gunslingers, as decklists were available beforehand.

It is Game 1 of a Best of 3 Series. The Stonescar Opponent did not play a 1 or 2 drop, despite having undepleted power on both turns. His first play was a Champion of Chaos. When you played a Feln Bloodcaster, he played Hideout Pistol on the Champion, killing the Bloodcaster and hitting face for 7. You had a slow hand with 2 Wisdom of the Elders, and unfortunately ended up in the following position on turn 7.

(Including the units on the board, the Opponent has played 1 Hideout Pistol, 1 Champion of Chaos, and 2 Bandit Queens, 1 Cinder Yeti, and 1 Argenport Instigator).

It’s a pretty bad position. If you were Feln Control, what would you do this turn?

The obvious aim right now is to survive one more turn. There are three possible lines.

Line 1: Play Vara’s Favor on the Opponent’s face, play a Champion of Cunning, and don’t attack with the Black-Sky Harbinger.

Line 2: Play Annihilate and In Cold Blood, and don’t attack.

Line 3: Play Annihilate and In Cold Blood, and attack.

This decision is extremely difficult to make. Under the pressure of a streamed tournament game, as well as the time pressure of Eternal’s timer, it is understandable why anyone would make a mistake in this position. But in the position of analysts, let’s try to make the best decision possible here.

The decision ultimately comes down to what Feln will lose to in each line. Bear with me as I list them out.

In Line 1, Feln loses to Hideout Pistol (3 left), Rapid Shot (4 left), Cinder Yeti (3 left), Bandit Queen (2 left), and Vicious Highwayman (4 left), and Torch + Vara’s Favor or 2 Torches (4 Torches and 2 Vara’s Favor left).

In Line 2, Feln loses to Hideout Pistol (3 left), Cinder Yeti (3 left), and Bandit Queen + Torch (2 Queens and 4 Torches left).

In Line 3, Feln loses to Hideout Pistol (3 left), Bandit Queen (2 left), Vicious Highwayman (4 left), and Rapid Shot (4 left).

In Lines 2 and 3, Feln also loses to any 2 effects that can go face. These are Torch (4 left), Vara’s Favor(2 left), and Vicious Highwayman(4 left).

Right off the bat, we can eliminate Line 1 – that is, playing Vara’s Favor, Champion, and not attacking, as it basically loses to both what Lines 2 and 3 lose to. While Line 1 loses to fewer two-card combos as playing Vara’s Favor puts you at 2 health, the number of possible combinations is not so high as to offset the significantly higher number of single cards you lose to when compared to each line. Therefore, playing Champion and not attacking is out.

The real decision is between Line 2 and 3 – essentially, after playing 2 removal spells, does Black-Sky Harbinger attack or not?

Not attacking loses to 6 cards and a 2 instances of a 2-card combo, while attacking loses to 13 cards. While the likelihood of losing the following turn is obviously lower when you don’t attack, the probability is not so far apart such that we can definitively say that that is the better line.

In such a tight spot, it would be relevant to factor in future turns. When comparing two lines, the relevant question would be this: of the cards that you do not lose to by choosing a certain line, how many of them would put you in a position that is basically lost the following turn anyway?

By not attacking with the Black-Sky Harbinger, we do not lose to Bandit Queen, Rapid Shot, and Vicious Highwayman – but how many of these, when played, would end up in a board state that is basically lost anyway?

Both Bandit Queen and Vicious Highwayman likely not lead to losing situations as yet, since neither can be played profitably by the Stonescar player.

The only problem would be Rapid Shot – hypothetically, the Stonescar player Rapid Shots his remaining unit and kills the Black-Sky Harbinger without it gaining any health. If he has any follow-up unit, we are in serious trouble and in need of topdecks.

However, because he must have a follow-up play for Rapid Shot to be scary, we should discount the number of Rapid Shots to account for as a reflection of that increased probability – as a ballpark figure, let’s say we only account for half of them. That would be 2 out of the 4 possible copies of Rapid Shot.

The end result is that not attacking loses to 8 cards + 2 instances of a 2 card combo, while attacking loses to 13 cards. The correct play would be to not attack. In the event you do not lose, the next turn is likely to be as difficult, since you are likely to be in the same position – however, we have great topdecks like Hailstorm and Harbinger that could put us in a better position.

(Edit: In my haste I missed the actual best line, as pointed out by Reddit. I’ll let the flash2351 do the talking:

“The correct line from scenerio 2 is to simply pass. You have 2 fast spells (annihilate and deathstrike) so you have no reason to play it on your turn.

Holding up 2 fast spells means that you only lose to hideout pistol (3 outs). Attacking with BSH leaves you dead to any charge unit (6 outs).

Importantly, holding up both fast spells allows you to blow out rapid shot. On opp’s attack (assuming no additional units), you always stick BSH in front of instigator and annihilate cinder yeti. You then deathstrike whichever unit he rapid shots (correct line is for opp to rapid shot queen if he has it). If he plays another charger, you have no choice but to just remove 2 and pray that he doesnt have power open for rapid as well (which is likely since he was probably at 5 for quite a few turns).”

I put my hands up and admit my mistake. I’ll do better next time!

-Avery)

Hopefully the above analysis helped you in figuring out the thought process in figuring out what to do in tough situations. While you obviously will not be able to make such quick calculations on the fly, looking at board states and honing your ability to make evaluations will allow you to make them quicker and more accurately. Thanks for reading!