All media outlets have called Minnesota for Bernie Sanders. The general trend seems to indicate that he'll win by around 20%. The table below is taken from politico's results which are convenientally report by congressional district. At the time I grabbed the data, 66.6% of the results were reported.

District Delegates Bernie Votes Hillary Votes Bernie Delegates Hillary Delegates 1 5 5,827 3,427 3 2 2 6 6,996 5,313 3 3 3 7 6,482 5,772 4 3 4 7 10,497 7,556 4 3 5 9 6,666 3,605 6 3 6 5 5,430 3,042 3 2 7 5 4,785 3,115 3 2 8 6 6,535 4,248 4 2 All Districts 50 53,218 36,078 30 20 At-Large 17 10 7 PLEO Pledged 10 6 4 Total 77 46 31

Using the delegate selection rules covered previously, Bernie can be expected to win 46 of the 77 pledged delegates. This is almost exactly inline with the current popular vote.

I'll update the table as more results are reported.

Update: 12:09 AM CT: 71.3% now reporting. Delegate expectations remained unchanged:

District Delegates Bernie Votes Hillary Votes Bernie Delegates Hillary Delegates 1 5 5,827 3,427 3 2 2 6 7,518 5,742 3 3 3 7 8,361 7,620 4 3 4 7 14,006 10,390 4 3 5 9 13,379 8,071 6 3 6 5 7,392 4,431 3 2 7 5 5,620 3,470 3 2 8 6 11,031 5,924 4 2 All Districts 50 73,134 49,075 30 20 At-Large 17 10 7 PLEO Pledged 10 6 4 Total 77 46 31

The only district which may flip is CD2. Its currently 3.4 to 2.59 in un-rounded delegates; if the 3.4 becomes 3.5, Bernie will get another whole delegate and Clinton will lose one for a 2 delegate swing.

Update: 12:57 AM CT: 91.5% now reporting. CD2 isn't going to flip. CD5 is now the closet to flipping:

District Delegates Bernie Votes Hillary Votes Bernie Raw Hillary Raw Bernie Delegates Hillary Delegates 1 5 8,416 4,262 3.319136 1.680864 3 2 2 6 7,524 5,756 3.399398 2.600602 3 3 3 7 11,864 10,571 3.701716 3.298284 4 3 4 7 14,632 10,979 3.999219 3.000781 4 3 5 9 27,719 17,222 5.551078 3.448922 6 3 6 5 7,841 4,729 3.118934 1.881066 3 2 7 5 5,934 3,643 3.098047 1.901953 3 2 8 6 14,318 7,146 4.002423 1.997577 4 2 All Districts 50 98,248 64,308 30 20 At-Large 17 10.27471 6.725289 10 7 PLEO Pledged 10 6.043948 3.956052 6 4 Total 77 46 31

Hillary Clinton needs to overcome about a 500 vote deficit in CD5 to reach the next delegate threshold. CD5 is listed as 79% reporting with a total of about 45k votes. Using a straight extrapolation, there are about 8,500 votes unreported which means Hillary will need to win them by about 40-60%, which is 6% better than the reported 79%.

Update: 2:17 AM CT: 91.8% is now reporting, but CD8 went backwards which is likely just a data error:

District Delegates Bernie Votes Hillary Votes Bernie Delegates Hillary Delegates Bernie Delegates Hillary Delegates 1 5 10,423 5,326 3.309099 1.690901 3 2 2 6 9,456 6,711 3.509371 2.490629 4 2 3 7 12,364 10,839 3.730035 3.269965 4 3 4 7 16,972 12,108 4.08542 2.91458 4 3 5 9 39,476 21,337 5.842238 3.157762 6 3 6 5 7,841 4,729 3.118934 1.881066 3 2 7 5 5,934 3,643 3.098047 1.901953 3 2 8 6 11,756 6,325 3.901112 2.098888 4 2 All Districts 50 114,222 71,018 31 19 At-Large 17 10.48248 6.517523 10 7 PLEO Pledged 10 6.166163 3.833837 6 4 Total 77 47 30

The 2nd Congressional District did end up flipping to a 4-2 Bernie advantage. CD5 moved in the wrong direction for Hillary as well. The margin in CD2 is razor thin and there is still 20% left to report so the delegates may flip again. The total vote in 2008 was 214,066; the current tally is 185,240 which is slightly under the 2008 pace.

Update: March 7: The DFL released their officially unofficial results [5,6]:

District Delegates Bernie Votes Hillary Votes Bernie Delegates Hillary Delegates 1 5 10,896 5,488 3 2 2 6 11,913 8,538 3 3 3 7 12,636 11,154 4 3 4 7 21,141 14,913 4 3 5 9 41,161 22,341 6 3 6 5 8,840 5,321 3 2 7 5 6,955 4,050 3 2 8 6 12,687 6,576 4 2 All Districts 50 126,229 78,381 31 19 At-Large 27 10 17 Total 77 47 30

The delegate count remained at 47-30 as projected, but there were deviations between our projections and the final outcome. Congressional District 2 ended up flipping back to a 3-3 split. The other change was the division of the 27 at-large pledged delegates. There are two groupings; an at-large pool of 17 and a PLEO Pledged pool of 10. Our projections had assumed two distinct calculations between these two groups, which would have yielded 16 for Bernie rather than a combined single group which yields 17. The allocation rules are clarified in the delegate selection plan in section C.4.a stating "The pledged PLEO slots shall be allocated among presidential preferences (including uncommitted status) on the same basis as the at-large delegates."

Update: March 9: Our last update is incorrect; the DFL released [7] a statement clarifying that the at-large and pledged PLEO delegates should be treated as two distinct groups for the purposes of delegate allocations. The at-large group allocates 10 delegates to Bernie and 7 to Hillary. The pledged PLEO then splits 6-4. The final allocations is 46-31.

District Delegates Bernie Votes Hillary Votes Bernie Delegates Hillary Delegates 1 5 10,896 5,488 3 2 2 6 11,913 8,538 3 3 3 7 12,636 11,154 4 3 4 7 21,141 14,913 4 3 5 9 41,161 22,341 6 3 6 5 8,840 5,321 3 2 7 5 6,955 4,050 3 2 8 6 12,687 6,576 4 2 All Districts 50 126,229 78,381 31 19 At-Large 17 10 7 Pledged PLEO 10 6 4 Total 77 46 31

Here is the relevant quote from the DFL stating the correction:

On caucus night, we tabulated the 17 at-large delegates and 10 party leader and elected officials (PLEO) delegates as one group of 27 delegates. The two groups should have been kept separate. Each group is tied to the statewide results, however, they are two separate pools of delegates. When the delegate calculation is applied to the two separately, each group has a remainder delegate which goes to the candidate with the highest remainder. Clinton has the highest remainder in both cases and thus earns one more delegate. Source: Statement from the DFL [7]

Updated on March 9, 2016 at 10:19:56 PM CT