AFTER months of protests, Yemen's president, Ali Abdullah Saleh has agreed to step down within 30 days. Whether he will actually go remains to be seen.

In the streets of the capital, Sana'a, thousands are already demonstrating against the terms of a Gulf Cooperation Council-brokered deal that would see the besieged president and his family granted immunity from prosecution in exchange for a peaceful transfer of power to the vice president, Abdu Rabu Manur Hadi, who would call new presidential elections to be held within two months.

While Yemen's formal opposition, an Islamist-led parliamentary coalition, has tentatively accepted the new agreement “with reservations”, the grass-roots activists who have spearheaded the pro-democracy movement since it began in late January are adamant that Mr Saleh be held responsible for violent crackdowns on street protesters that have left over 130 dead. Mindful of the March 18th attack in which rooftop snipers killed at least 45 protesters, they are doggedly refusing to allow him go unpunished.

Mr Saleh has few allies left. Over the past two months, generals, parliamentarians, diplomats and sheikhs have all abandoned him, though his immediate family (and the elite US-trained units of the Yemeni military that they command) remain loyal. His neighbours in the Arabian peninsula, alert to the possibility of unrest spilling over into their own autocratic regimes, are pressuring him to step down and America, alarmed by a recent upsurge of al-Qaeda attacks, is calling for dialogue and a peaceful transition of power.

But even his bitterest rivals admit that it is not over yet: there are mutterings that this latest concession could be yet another crafty manouevre intended to divide and discredit the opposition.

As negotiations continue to sputter, there have been disputes amongst different opposition groups about the exact terms of an agreement with Mr Saleh. These disagreements are understandable: Yemen's opposition contains a cornucopia of dissenting groups, incorporating Shia rebels, southern separatists, socialists and middle-class urban professionals. Many in the youth-led movement distrust the formal opposition who they see as too close and too cooperative with Mr Saleh's regime. Many compromises will need to be made.

Mr Saleh's successor will not have an easy job: Yemen faces a tribal insurgency in its north, a separatist movement in the south and pockets of al-Qaeda scattered throughout the country. The capital's water supply is expected to run out in a decade and the country's oil even sooner. But exactly when Mr Saleh's 32 years of autocratic rule will finally come to an end is still not known.

(Photo credit: AFP)