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Two Canadians in three think we should be doing more to bring Syrian refugees to Canada. The rest of the population apparently thinks Canada is doing enough — or even too much.

Stephen Harper isn’t playing for the two-thirds that want to do more. He’s only talking to the one-third who are fine with doing what we’re doing, or would be fine with doing less.

“Exactly,” said Frank Graves, whose latest EKOS/iPolitics poll shows the Conservatives leading the NDP 32 to 30 per cent, with the Liberals trailing at 26 per cent.

In other words, what Harper’s been saying on refugees is working with his party’s base. Asked whether Canada “is taking in too few, too many or about the right number of refugees”, 36 per cent said too few, 34 per cent said about right, and 25 per cent said too many.

In response to a follow-up question, 55 per cent said they thought Canada should focus on humanitarian aid, while 37 per cent thought the priority should be on the military mission against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. But for self-identified Conservative supporters, that number flips, with 69 per cent calling for more military action and only 26 per cent suggesting humanitarian efforts should be increased.

“There are two different lenses … two different and irreconcilable worlds,” Graves said, splitting the electorate between the “more moderate Canadians” and those who think Canada has been doing enough on admitting refugees … or have serious security concerns about new arrivals from Syria.

Which isn’t to say the Conservatives have been running a good campaign. They’ve screwed up on everything from image banks (Atlantic salmon for a Pacific salmon announcement) to candidate vetting (dumping two in one day this week alone) to keeping Harper on message.

The party’s rank and file are not only angry, they’re embarrassed by this bush league campaign.

At least Harper knows he’s in trouble; he’s bringing in Australian campaign consultant Lynton Crosby, who played an important back-room role in David Cameron’s surprise majority win in the U.K. last spring. Harper’s campaign director, Jenni Byrne, has also left the leader’s tour to return to the Tory war room in Ottawa. (Which begs a question: what was the campaign manager doing on the plane — inside the bubble — in the first place, when that role is played on the ground?)

As in the provincial Ontario campaign last year, the Liberals have successfully positioned themselves to the left of the NDP. As in the provincial Ontario campaign last year, the Liberals have successfully positioned themselves to the left of the NDP.

But for all that’s gone wrong for the Conservatives, says Graves, using the refugee crisis, they “have successfully engaged their base.”

Among Conservative voters, 54 per cent think the government has it “about right” in its pledge to bring in another 10,000 refugees over the next four years, in addition to the 11,000 it agreed to take in back in 2013. Overall, 34 per cent think the Conservatives would take in “about the right number of refugees”; 36 per cent say that’s “too few” while 25 per cent think it’s “too many.”

As always, the regional breakouts in the EKOS poll tell the story behind the national numbers.

In battleground Ontario, with 121 seats in the new 338-seat House, EKOS puts the Conservatives at 37 per cent, the Liberals at 33 per cent, and the NDP lagging at 23 per cent. This means the Liberals have moved back in front of the NDP in Toronto 416, while the Conservatives remain strong in suburban 905.

Graves sees the Liberals re-gaining support among “promiscuous progressive” voters who moved away from them over Justin Trudeau’s support of the Conservative anti-terror legislation, Bill C-51. Trudeau has regained ground with his promise to run deficits to stimulate the economy. Three Liberal and NDP voters out of four — 76 and 72 per cent respectively — think “modest deficits to invest in things like infrastructure make sense.”

One of the reasons Tom Mulcair promises a balanced budget is that voters in Ontario and British Columbia remember the messy fiscal frameworks under provincial NDP governments. But it’s not playing well with the NDP base in Ontario. As in the provincial Ontario campaign last year, the Liberals have successfully positioned themselves to the left of the NDP.

In Quebec, EKOS has the NDP maintaining a huge lead at 39 per cent, with the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc Québécois all tied at 19 per cent.

As always in Quebec, the breakout of the francophone and non-francophone voting intention is all-important in terms of seats. The NDP have 39 per cent of the francophone vote, the Bloc 21 per cent, the Conservatives 20 per cent and the Liberals only 16 per cent. Among non-francophones the Liberals are at 48 per cent, the NDP at 37 per cent and the Conservatives at only 11 per cent.

The Conservative francophone vote is concentrated in the Quebec City 418 region, and if these numbers hold through election day they could produce up to 10 seats. As for the Liberals, their share of the francophone vote needs to grow out of the teens in order for them to win any seats off the island of Montreal.

One thing is clear for all parties: at this point there is no majority government in view for any of them.

L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94. The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.