SALEM -- Oregon's rural areas, once the backbone of the state's natural resource economy, are at risk of a downward spiral that could leave them poor and empty for decades, state economists warned Wednesday.

During their

on the state's economic and revenue picture, Oregon's two official forecasters said overall growth has been positive and steady, but driven mainly by the Portland metro area.

The growth pattern is mostly good news for the 2013-15 state budget,

at the $16.7 billion level approved by the Legislature last month. But economists Mark McMullen and Josh Lehner noted some growing risks amid the optimism.

"A lot of rural areas are missing out," McMullen said. And that problem could grow if rural residents -- especially younger ones -- lose faith and move to Portland.

"We're at this cusp," McMullen said. Younger rural residents are moving into their "home-buying and root-planting years. If we're not able to keep them, and they blow off to Portland, these areas could get into a very bad negative cycle."

Using federal tax data, McMullen and Lehner calculated a net migration into Portland from other parts of the state of more than 4,000 between 2007 and 2010. Southern Oregon lost the most -- about 2,200. The Columbia Gorge and the northeast part of the state were the only other areas to show any net gain.

The quarterly report, presented to a joint legislative Finance and Revenue Committee, prompted some soul searching about the structure of Oregon's economy. Although Portland has long been the state's center of business, the polarization between the haves and have-nots is becoming far more pronounced, Lehner said.

He noted that metro-based industries such as athletic apparel and high-tech have been doing exceptionally well. "They're way above pre-recession levels, they're expanding. There will be more jobs on the way," he said.

But most of the new jobs are either at the high end, $55,000 a year or above, or the low end, below $35,000, Lehner said. Those middle income jobs, which provide a solid base for families, haven't materialized, he said.

Lawmakers representing rural parts of the state took particular notice. The exodus is already happening, said

R-Ontario.

"They're leaving because there's nothing for them to do," he said. He blamed state policies that hamper natural resource jobs, and asked the economists for solutions.

McMullen noted that community colleges at the coast and in Central Oregon have set up programs designed to train local residents to match the jobs that are there, such as marine sciences and health care.

Bentz said that the future looks bleak for his district.

"To pick up a Nike and move it to Burns is unlikely," he said. Either the state changes its natural resource rules "or those areas are going to empty out and die off."

, D-Eugene, said after the meeting that the continued decline of the timber industry is one of the main reasons for rural flight. He said the Legislature needs to work to get more logging and lumber mill jobs.

Future logging levels

again in Oregon, as the state's congressional members have begun a push to allow more timber harvests, and environmental groups have ramped up opposition campaigns.

"We're never going to get back to the go-go years of the 1950s, 60s and 70s," Barnhart said.

McMullen also noted two other areas of concern for the state's financial future. Long-term unemployment, he said, "could do permanent damage to our economy." Businesses tend not to hire people who have been out of a job for more than a year or so, which means a significant chunk of the labor force is being shut out.

"Their skills atrophy," he said, and that leads to problems in matching workers with industries who need a skilled workforce.

The other worry is more global in nature. He said other economists have been "sanguine" about continued economic turmoil in Europe and China. "These things haven't gone away," he said.

-- Harry Esteve