Posted by

Aaron Nielsen ,

February 29, 2016 Email

Aaron Nielsen



Twitter

@ENBSports

Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device





For last year’s preview of the Vancouver Whitecaps I did see them as a playoff team, although they did better than I predicted in 2015, finishing second in the Western Conference and gaining a first round bye. However, they lost to eventual champions Portland Timbers, and as I wrote in my Whitecaps 2015 season review article, despite this success to me the 2015 season was a bit of a disappointment along with also being eliminated from the CONCACAF Champions League before their playoff exit. Club president Bob Lenarduzzi has mentioned high hopes for 2016, but he also mentioned the hope in attaining a player who could score 20 goals a season. I don't feel they did attain such a player, although I think they made some interesting moves in the off-season that should give them some of the best player depth in the league. If everything comes together, Vancouver should qualify for the playoffs again and even compete for the title in a very competitive Western Conference. Goalkeeping



As I wrote in my 2015 Whitecaps review, David Ousted in my view was the top keeper in 2016 and was cheated out of winning the league award, as statistically he performed better the winner New York Red Bulls keeper Luis Robles. Within the analytical community there has been a lot of talk about keepers and how much difference they make in terms of a team’s overall record. I tend to lean on the view that a good keeper is useful but not a game changer, but if Vancouver’s defense and record holds up this year compared to 2015, Ousted might begin to change my point of view. What I do feel regarding keepers is that standard benchmarks of results should be expected, including a save percentage of over 70% and good success at catching or clearing the ball in pressure situations. Ousted’s stats were very strong last seasons, although what you don't expect to repeat is opposition missing four of six penalties against him as they did in the MLS regular season in 2015. It looks as if Ousted’s main backup will be 20 year old Canadian keeper Marco Carducci, which also shows the Whitecaps are not only expecting and hoping Ousted performs in 2016, but also stays healthy. Full Backs



The Whitecaps had strong full back play in 2015, yet as I wrote in my 2015 review, were taking a rather large budget hit in that position. In 2016 the starting left back Jordan Harvey returns, but right back Steven Beitashour was traded to Toronto FC and will be replaced by the combination of loaned-in Canadian Fraser Aird, who was playing with Glasgow Rangers in Scotland, homegrown player Samuel Adekugbe and GA contracted player Christian Dean and Jodie Smith. Harvey has been a solid left back playing 86 games the past three seasons with the Whitecaps. He is capable of connecting with 80% of his passes and averaging seven key defensive contributions per match. The Whitecaps tend to build play through the center, so Harvey doesn't get as many touches as other top full backs in the league, but he is sold player both on offense and defence. The loss of Beitashour means the Whitecaps are losing a solid player who doesn't make many mistakes, however, with Aird and Adekugbe the Whitecaps are gaining a greater threat offensively from the full back position. In limited MLS action, Adekugbe has shown to be a great passer of the ball and a player who will include himself in the build-up play. Arguably Aird is more of a midfielder than a full back, and has shown an ability to both score and provide goals in his past experience in Scotland and with Canadian National Teams. The worry of course is with more offensive-minded, and younger players, concerns of mistakes on the ball or playing out of position may lead to allowing more goals. Christian Dean was a highly regarded talent when drafted, partly because he has the ability of playing both center and full back, and has looked capable in limited opportunities but his performances haven't forced himself in the starting eleven. While Costa Rican Smith was a regular with Saprissa in Costa Rica before joining the Whitecaps after spending some of his youth in France with Le Harve B side. Centre Back



The Whitecaps have made a large investment in Costa Rican center back Kendall Waston and when you look at his core abilities you can see why. With great strength and a 6'5 frame, Waston is a dominant force, both defending in his own box which attributed to over 12 key defensive contribution per game last season, and is also a threat on offense scoring goals from set-plays. Yet, there are also concerns for the 28 year old defender, including below average ball playing skills and disciplinary issues, including giving up penalties, which is reflected in Costa Rica only giving him six international caps where he has accumulated four yellow cards. Pa Modou Kah wasn't expected to be the starting Center Back last year but took over that position and played well in a senior back line with the 35 year old being the key ball playing defender in the back and the smartest defender in key situations. The Whitecaps actually declined Kah’s option after 2015, although did resign him probably at a lower salary then last year and hope he has one more year in him as he enters his 18th season as a professional footballer. The Whitecaps have Dean and last year’s draft pick Tim Parker, who played well as a steady defender, and Cole Seiler who was drafted this past draft. Although Vancouver’s defense could struggle against a team who chooses to run against them and by putting extra pressure on the holding midfielders’ defensive responsibilities. Holding Midfield



Vancouver’s holding midfielders of Gershon Koffie and Matias Laba have been looked at as one of the strongest in the league, although in my 2015 review I did question the growth of the two players, and since they are now veterans in the league their salary commitments is a concern. Vancouver recently traded Koffie to New England, leaving Laba as the main defensive midfielder on the club. The 24 year old Laba has equaled expectations when brought in by Toronto, although after a new contract this off-season he actually costs the same against the cap as his TFC replacement Michael Bradley and might not have the upsides as other DP's in the league. Laba does show good ball control and accumulated almost 50 touches per game during the 2015 season and also plays a key role defensively, but this has also hurt him being red carded three times over the last two seasons. Traditionally, Vancouver always plays a 4-2-3-1, but it looks as if they could experiment this season with a 4-1-4-1 or 4-1-2-3 formation with Laba being the key defensive midfielder. However, expect him to have a center midfield partnership with either Canadian Russell Teibert or Deybi Flores, with Homegrown player Ben McKendry an option as well. Teibert can be frustrating as a player sometimes, but he is good at possession in the midfield getting over 50 touches a game per 90 minutes during the 2015 MLS regular season. There is hope that Teibert will show more offensive flair, however becoming a steady midfielder could also be useful in improving the Whitecaps possession numbers, which they struggled with last season. Flores is still only 19 but has already been capped by Honduras and played in the U-20 FIFA World Cup. Flores looked strong in limited playing action last year and has size over the Canadian, although lost the ball more in possession than Teibert, so I feel it is Teibert’s position to lose. Attacking Midfield



The Whitecaps have a number of attacking midfielders, although I think their success this season will rely on two players: the return of form for DP Pedro Morales and the continued development of Kekuta Manneh. Morales was a disappointment last season, struggling with health but also contributing on the pitch. To be fair, many of Morales assists historically come from set-plays which the Whitecaps failed to convert in 2015, but more should be expected not only because of his DP salary but also because the touches and time on the ball Morales is provided within the Whitecaps system. A repeat of 2015 could see Morales replaced by a higher calibre DP by the end of the season. I wrote in my 2015 Whitecaps preview that I see Manneh as the player in MLS with the greatest potential. At 21 years old, he has the speed and ball playing skills to be a very useful player in the top leagues of Spain, Italy or Portugal and when given a more starting role, last season showed it on the pitch scoring seven goals adding six assists and taking 82 shots. Manneh is still not a complete player and needs to improve on his finishing, as well as overall being a more consistent player. However, as his confidence in his skill set grows, expect Manneh to potentially be a double digit goal scorer in the league and I also feel a European club will go after him in trying to sign for a multi-million dollar transfer during the 2016 season. The Whitecaps will also rely on a heavily Spanish-influenced midfield in Uruguayan's Cristian Techera and Nicolas Mezquida, Costa Rican Christian Bolanos, Cuban-Canadian Kainz Froese and Chilean-Canadian Marco Bustos. The player I like best is 19 year old Bustos, who I feel is the most exciting Canadian talent and I might go as far as saying he could potentially influence a game greater than Orlando striker Cyle Larin, although I don't think Bustos will get the playing time in 2016 to establish himself. The player with another potential skill set is Froese, and is one to watch for both the Whitecaps and Canada's future. The player who impressed the most last season was 5'2 Techera who scored seven goals and added five assists in 22 games last year. I don't expect him to have the same influence this year, as especially if relied upon as an every game starter. I think part of Techera’s success was his ability to surprise his opponents, where I feel this year teams will know better how to defend him since most of his goals last year were being the unmarked man who was able to sneak in and score. Christian Bolanos is a good possession midfielder who has been capped 60 times with Costa Rica, played a number of years in Denmark and brings experience of playing in both the UEFA Champions League and the FIFA World Cup. While Mezquida will be playing his third `season with the Whitecaps, and to be honest I'm not sure why he is still with the club scoring only three goals in 32 games and I feel there are much better options especially for an international roster spot at his salary. Forwards



As always, it seems the Whitecaps have a number of forwards yet none that will score the 20 goals a season that Lenarduzzi is hoping for. However, collectively they could score 30 as a complete unit. The key ones will be DP Octavio Rivero, new signings Masato Kudo and Blas Perez, and Darren Mattocks who could be no longer with the club by the start of the season. The biggest off-season story was the signing of Japanese forward Masato Kudo who joins the Whitecaps after playing 189 games in Japan’s J1-League where he scored 66 goals and was also capped four times by the Japanese National Team. Kudo is a classic second striker who can either play upfront or part of the attacking midfield and scores more goals running with the ball at his feet than as a target man. In J-League he was regarded as an average forward, although I do feel players from the J-League will adapt well in MLS because of the style of play and less responsibility on the defensive end. If Kudo is going to be successful, expect him to score goals on the break, a through ball, or making contact on a scramble in the box. My opinion on Rivero is he is a good player, but probably not worth the DP salary. What he has done in is his career is consistently score ten goals a season, and have the ability to play many minutes. Rivero did slump toward the end of last season and part of this is could be he didn't really have a break between 2014 and 2015, so maybe a true gap this year will help the Uruguayan return his scoring touch. Although the reality is Rivero is not a true finisher and instead relies of being provided opportunities and general work ethic, which led to over 100 shots during the 2015 MLS season. This lack of finishing could see Rivero being resigned to the bench despite his DP contract, as Blas Perez joins the club with his 36 career MLS goals as well as a number of goals in South America and 38 goals with the Panama national team. Perez came out of favor with FC Dallas partly due to a lack of speed but the 34 year old should still have the touch and intelligence to score goals either as a starter or off the bench. With three key forwards and a number of potential alternatives, including the return on from loan of Eric Hurtado, it looks like Darren Mattocks days as a Whitecap are numbered. However, the Jamaican forward has actually had a strong preseason and the problem in letting him go is he probably has more talent than most of the forwards on the team. Mattocks struggles began when he never was going to be the 20 goal scorer a season in MLS as he was in college at Akron, and instead has only scored 19 career goals in 93 games with the Whitecaps. Mattocks has been given opportunities with the Whitecaps so he's partly to blame for a lack of performance, but I also feel the Whitecaps have not used him to his best ability especially when you see his output with the Jamaican National Team of 12 goals in 31 games. So I think it would benefit Mattocks if he did leave, although at the same time he is still only 25 and it is hard to give up on a player with such strong skills. Analysis



The Whitecaps are not a perfect team and also play in the Western Conference, which continues to improve each year. I do like LA Galaxy’s moves this off season and I see them as clear favorites in the West, however I do see the Whitecaps competing for second place and playoff bye with clubs such as Portland, Seattle, Sporting KC, and FC Dallas. My statistical model sees an improved offense but a weaker defense than in 2015, although a similar goal difference from last season. Carl Robinson’s style of play is sometimes not fun to watch, but he has done a good job in managing the club, while Lenarduzzi and his team have brought in players who should give the Whitecaps enough depth to compete and challenge for a playoff spot. I don't see the Caps favored in a playoff match-up versus any Western Conference club, so it could be another one-and-done playoff series like it has been the three times the Whitecaps have made the playoffs. As I wrote in my 2015 Vancouver Whitecaps season review, I feel the missing component is an elite Designated Player who could be a game changer or at least create a sense of confidence with the team. Personally, I would like them to sign an influential central midfielder like a Xabi Alonso or a Micheal Carrick, who are both out of contract this summer, rather than a forward. I think this type of player can create link up between Laba and Morales and allow players such as Bustos, Mattocks and now Kudo more freedom to run off the ball and also provide them more real chances to score. Although it seem the Whitecaps budgeting the whole club around $5,000,000 in yearly salaries is also part of their plan going forward.



Aaron Neilsen is a co-founder of Prospect XI (Prospect Eleven), a scouting network and online magazine dedicated to tracking/highlighting young players that refer to as "prospects" as well as their development pathways both within North America and worldwide. Follow PXI via www.prospectxi.com or on twitter @ProspectXI.