If you follow Doug Ford on Twitter, you had the scare of your life a month ago.

Every few minutes, the premier tweeted and retweeted urgent alerts with cascading alarm. What could warrant the 56 non-stop Twitter warnings via his verified provincial handle @FordNation?

Could it be a chemical leak? Floodwaters rising? Forest fires spreading? Child abduction?

No, April 1 marked the imposition of what he calls the "job-killing" federal carbon tax, imposed on any province that failed to put forward a credible plan of its own to curb greenhouse gas emissions. On the eve of that day of infamy, Ford led his fellow Tories in a co-ordinated Twitter assault against Ottawa:

"Today's the last day to fill your gas tank before the federal carbon tax makes life more expensive for your family," Ford warned. "We'll keep fighting to stop this terrible tax with every tool at our disposal."

All's fair in Twitter and war.

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But one month later, let's do the math. Was it right to beat the price hike by filling up in advance, or was this another illusory buck-a-beer slogan?

The numbers tell the story: If you are price-sensitive at the pump, the carbon tax is the least of your problems.

Ford was absolutely correct — for a day, the same way a broken clock gets it right twice a day. At other times, his predictions are proving as reliable as Wiarton Willie's spring forecasts on Groundhog Day.

On the eve of the carbon tax last March 31, Toronto's pump price averaged 114.7 cents a litre (all data from the Fuel Price Trends analysis on gasbuddy.com).

By April 2, the price was up 4 cents a litre — close to the estimated 4.4 cents tax impact. But then it went down, by a penny, the next day. Only on April 5 did it fully reflect the tax increase, reaching 119.9 cents per litre (up 5.2 cents).

But gas prices didn't stop there. And there's the rub behind Ford's flub.

By mid-April, average Toronto prices crept past 121.1 cents, surging to 130.4 cents on the 27th. That's a full 15.7 cents a litre higher — or more than three times as much — as the 4.4-cent federal carbon tax that so vexed the premier's Progressive Conservative government.

Thanks to the laws of economics that even our premier can't upend or suspend, gas keeps going up. Or down. Or up again.

Most readers who follow pump prices won't be surprised by the volatility in global oil markets. But many voters may be mystified by the premier's consistency in pretending Justin Trudeau's hidden hand has a greater influence than President Donald Trump's tighter grip on Iranian oil exports as sanctions bite.

Isn't Ford afraid of losing face when he tells voters with a straight face that the 4.4 cents a litre will kill jobs — only to see gas prices go up three times as much without any job losses? Why predict the unpredictable and explain the inexplicable?

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Because he can.

Let's go further back in time, to Ford's decision to kill the province's existing cap-and-trade system last October (if it were still in place, Ontario would have been spared the federal carbon backstop imposed only on delinquent provinces). He promised the pump price would go down by an estimated 4.4 cents a litre after that.

Didn't happen that way. Gas prices were 114.5 cents a litre on Oct. 31, but instead of dropping by that amount, they took a dramatic downward plunge that bottomed out at 92.7 cents last Feb. 7.

That didn't stop Ford's government from taking credit, however implausibly, for the glut in global oil markets, as if our powerful premier had achieved this on his own. But how can he justify the 40-per-cent surge in prices from February to this week, on his watch?

Politicians who live by oil prices die by oil prices.

Average gas prices in Toronto are now about where they were on June 7 last year — 131.9 cents a litre — the day Ford won the provincial election. Which proves everything and nothing about his magical powers of persuasion and prediction.

In his video tweet filmed at a gas station, Ford gave a rousing oration to his 129,000 faithful followers just before April Fool's Day:

"Friends, today is the last day to fill up your gas tank before the federal carbon tax hits your family's budget like a ton of bricks. Starting tomorrow, the price of gas will go up almost 4.5 cents per litre. Make no mistake, the carbon tax is the worst tax ever."

Never mind that most Ontario families will be fully rebated for the carbon tax (which arguably makes it the best tax ever).

Filling up his vehicle with one hand, gesturing expansively with another, Ford looked straight into the camera to deliver his rallying cry: "When you fight against a carbon tax you are fighting for the people."

Fighting words from a premier who fights for all the people all the time. But can he fool all the people all the time about the carbon tax and gas prices?

The pump price never lies.

Martin Regg Cohn is a columnist based in Toronto covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @reggcohn

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