Take a deep breath and relax, Toronto.

That’s because, despite all his bluster about sweeping to victory, Rob Ford won’t be re-elected as mayor when voters go to the polls in October.

Indeed, Ford stands a real chance of finishing a poor third in the race and could end up playing more of a role as a spoiler than being a viable contender for the mayor’s office.

Outrageous? Impossible?

As much as Ford Nation will cry unfair, defeat for Ford is the most likely outcome of this race that pits the crack-smoking, ill-mannered mayor against top contenders Olivia Chow and John Tory.

Clearly, many Toronto residents are deeply worried that the mayor could win this election. Those concerns seem to be even more exaggerated among those “elites,” “lefties” and “downtowners” Ford uses as verbal punching bags in his campaign speeches.

Their fears aren’t totally groundless.

They are based on early polls that suggest Ford has a voter approval rating forever stuck between 40 and 45 per cent, regardless of what shame he brings on himself and the city, on television images of 1,500 wildly cheering Ford enthusiasts at his campaign kick-off event, of scenes of people clamouring for Ford bobbleheads and lining up to take “selfies” photos with the mayor wherever he shows up.

Added to that is the international “celebrity” status that Ford has garnered after appearing on U.S. late-night shows.

Taken together, they might suggest Ford could be re-elected, coming up the middle as Chow and Tory — and Karen Stintz and David Soknacki to a lesser extent — split the anti-Ford vote.

But there are many reasons why voters who oppose Ford shouldn’t be worried.

Ford has no growth potential in the polls; he lacks support from any major community, political, religious or academic leader; every newspaper, including the Toronto Sun, which endorsed him in 2010, opposes his candidacy; and his lone main campaign message of controlling city hall spending can be easily usurped by other candidates.

Key is Ford’s apparent inability to attract new supporters or win back those who have left him because they are disgusted with his scandal-ridden personal life.

To win, Ford needs to capture 37-42 per cent of the votes in the Oct. 27 election. Currently, only 23-27 per cent of Toronto voters say they would actually vote for him in the election. To be re-elected, Ford must improve that number by about 50 per cent.

But where does that extra support come from? An Ipsos Reid poll in December conducted on behalf of CTV News indicated 61 per cent of voters would never consider voting for Ford. Also, Ford is the second choice of few voters polled compared with Chow and Tory.

In the 2010 election, Ford got 47 per cent of the votes. Many of them held their noses when they cast their ballots for Ford, disliking his personal failings but loving his message of “Stop the Gravy Train.”

Many of those voters now admit they made a grave error in voting for him. Those voters won’t make that mistake again.

To date, Ford has done nothing to try to win them back. Rather, he is frantically trying to solidify his core base, playing up his “celebrity” and bashing the “elites” he claims are out to get him.

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Also, the bulk of Ford’s supporters are young, lower income, less educated, male and from outer parts of suburbs such as Scarborough and North York. All these groups are the least likely to vote in an election, which greatly hurts Ford’s campaign efforts.

So why are Ford’s approval ratings still so high, at 40-45 per cent?

It’s because most Toronto residents believe city hall is failing to take vigilant care of their tax dollars. To that end, Ford is seen as the guy who really cares about this issue.

So far, his challengers seem to be campaigning as if this election is all about Ford’s personal behaviour and subways. In reality, though, it’s about Ford’s message, namely cutting waste.

With Ford, voters like the message but hate the behaviour. With Chow, voters like the behaviour but are wary about her message on spending. With Tory, they like the behaviour but aren’t sure of the message.

If Tory and Chow can convince voters they are serious about cutting waste, then they will blunt any pipe dream Ford has about expanding his voter base back to where it was in 2010.

No doubt, Ford will remain a big factor in the race because of his message. At the same time, election campaigns really do matter, as Tory knows from his failed 2003 mayoral bid.

Ultimately, though, barring any unforeseen implosion by both Chow and Tory, Ford’s days as mayor will soon be over — and the city can relax again.

Bob Hepburn's column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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