The state has a goal of having 300,000 zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2025. But while sales are growing rapidly, the looming expiration of rebate incentives combined with concerns over vehicle costs and suitable infrastructure are likely to result in the state coming up short of its goal, according to several experts.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to correct that Peter Shumrack, a salesman at Herb Connolly Chevrolet in Framingham, has leased four Chevrolet Volts in the past several years. The story previously attributed his business to the wrong vehicle.

Siyu Zhou has few regrets after trading in his Acura TLX for a brand-new Tesla Model 3.

With a 10-mile commute from his Holliston home to his workplace at Dell EMC in Hopkinton, Zhou typically only has to charge up his ride every five days.

“I love it. The driving is really different than old cars,” Zhou said in referencing the Tesla's instant acceleration.

Zhou is among a growing number of drivers throughout the state taking advantage of the emerging automotive technology.

Since 2011, approximately 22,000 zero-emission vehicles have been sold in Massachusetts, according to trade association lobby group Global Auto Makers. Zero-emission vehicles include pure battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles.

But while it looks like electric vehicle adoption is rapidly on the rise - that same group found that from 2017 to 2018 Massachusetts saw a growth rate of 175% in zero-emission vehicle purchases - there are several factors that might hinder Massachusetts from hitting its goal of having 300,000 zero emission vehicles on the road by 2025.

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The state implemented the 300,000 goal because it is one of nine states that is part of the Zero Emission Vehicle Task Force.

In 2013, eight state governors signed a memorandum of understanding committing themselves to implementing state programs that would result in at least 3.3 million new zero-emission vehicles being on the road by 2025. Those states included Massachusetts, California, Connecticut, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont. In 2018, New Jersey signed on as well.

The task force's goal is to reduce the nation's reliance on fossil fuels.

In Massachusetts specifically, transportation makes up 43% of the state's greenhouse gas emissions, according to a 2016 analysis report conducted by the state Department of Environmental Protection.

Rebates on chopping block

One reason the state might miss the target, however, is that its electric vehicle rebate program is ending, said Robert O'Koniewski, executive vice president and general counsel for the Massachusetts State Automobile Dealers Association.

With funding for the program running out, it was announced at a Zero Emission Vehicle Commission meeting last month that the Massachusetts Offer Rebates for Electric Vehicles (MOR-EV) program will be extended one final time to cover electric vehicle purchases made through Sept. 30.

The program, which was created in 2014, offers rebates to residents who buy electric vehicles. When it started, the program offered rebates as high as $2,500. Since then, due to a lack of funding, rebates have been reduced to $1,500.

The program is funded by the Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs' Department of Energy Resources and administered statewide by the Center for Sustainable Energy.

As vehicle sales have increased, the dollar amount of the program's rebates over the last year totaled more than the previous four years combined, Baker administration officials said, and rebate costs are outpacing funds available. Administration officials cited "accelerated demand" for rebates, in connection with an uptick in electric vehicle sales, and said proposed budget amendments that the administration supported to provide more funding for the five-year-old program failed during House and Senate deliberations in April and May.

In Washington, there is also debate among officials and lobbying groups about modifying or ending a program that offer a tax credit to electric car buyers.

With shoppers taking those programs into strong consideration when looking to buy an electric vehicle - which still generally tend to be more expensive - the demise of those rebates could be bad news for future electric car sales, O'Koniewski said.

“When you look at states that offer some sort of money to consumers to buy these vehicles, that’s a big factor in decision-making,” O'Koniewski said. “When you look at places where the money has run out, sales have dropped considerably.”

As an example, he pointed to China, which cut its electric car subsidies in March and is seeing a rapid decline in electric vehicle sales.

Consumer wariness

Another issue the electric vehicle industry is facing is that of general interest. Upfront costs for the products are still generally high, there is less variety and consumers are wary of the new technology and its nascent infrastructure.

O'Koniewski also noted that gas prices haven't gone up enough for many people to seriously consider switching.

A recent nationwide survey conducted by the American Automobile Association found that only 16% of those surveyed said they would buy an electric car the next time they shop for a vehicle.

That same survey found that 58% of the people who say they are unlikely to buy an electric vehicle have concerns about having a place to charge.

The telephone survey was conducted over a four-day period in early April. The sample included 1,000 individuals from throughout the country.

Peter Shumrak, a salesman at Herb Connolly Chevrolet in Framingham, said zero-emission vehicles still tend to be favored primarily by early adopters and enthusiasts.

His dealership sells two zero-emission vehicles - the all-electric Chevy Bolt, and its remaining inventory of the hybrid Chevy Volt. General Motors stopped production of the latter car in March, but has said it would launch a host of new electric vehicles in 2021.

People tend to not trust that they will run out of charging power in a location where a charging station is nearby, Shumrak said.

“There’s a thing called ‘range anxiety,’” he said. “People feel that in a fully electric cars, like the Volt, like the Tesla, that they are going to go a certain distance and run out of power. All those cars get 150 to 300-plus miles of range, but they still don’t trust it.”

Entry level electric vehicles such as the 2019 Chevy Bolt and the Tesla Model 3 go for about $35,000, while higher-end electric vehicles such as the Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X can start from $70,000 to $80,000.

The state has several grant programs that businesses and institutions can take advantage of to install charging stations at their establishments. Some of those programs include the Mass Electric Vehicle Incentive program and MassEVovles program.

In MetroWest, charging stations have been installed in popular retail locations, such as Shoppers World in Framingham and the Natick Mall, as well as outside the Ashland Public Library and at Framingham State University.

Electric car benefits

While Shumrak understands people’s frustration and concern with zero-emission vehicles, he's an enthusiast. He's leased four Volts in the last several years. He loves the money he saves by not having to fill up his car with gas.

“I have it for three years. Turn it in and get another one. I love the cars. I have solar panels at my house, and if I charge during the day it’s being charged by the sun," he said. "I think everyone should have one in their driveway, especially if they do a lot of commuting - if they just use the car to go back and forth from work, they save the gas.”

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Electric cars tend to have better technology inside them as well, argued Alexander Wyglinski, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Worcester Polytechnic Institute.

Wyglinski said many autonomous vehicles on the road today are electric. Because they run on batteries rather than an internal combustion engine, electric vehicles are much easier to gauge in terms of range.

“The amount of charge they have in a battery is actually much more accurately determined,” he said. “So that vehicle can make a more accurate estimate of what its capacity is in terms of the distance it can travel before it needs to be charged.”

Electric cars made by companies such as Tesla can also be improved upon through the cloud, since much of the technology inside it is software based.

Consumers are taking that technology into consideration when going electric.

In an email sent to the Daily News, Tesla Model 3 owner Ken Schroder said the biggest reason he went with a Tesla is because its advanced technology is constantly being improved upon.

“I decided to buy a Tesla after test-driving the autopilot feature," he wrote. “They also extend the car's features, including autopilot, through software upgrades. So the car is enhanced over time without going to a dealer. After I bought the car, an update tied autopilot to navigation so it proposes lane changes for me to approve, or it can be configured to automatically make the change unless I reject it. I look forward to seeing how far they can push the technology.”

Tesla officials did not return multiple requests for comment. The automaker has a dealership in Natick.

Wyglinski also noted that the price of electric vehicles will decline as more people adopt the technology, and that in due time "you are getting electric vehicles whose price points are pretty close to what the average family would find attractive in a new vehicle."

Their environmental benefit is also an important aspect to consider, said Lawrence McKenna, an environmental science professor at Framingham State University.

“Why are electric cars better? Three reasons: efficiency, electricity and decarbonization,” he said. "Over the last 10 to 15 years, New England has reduced our greenhouse gas emissions and that’s largely because of the switch from coal and oil fire to gas and nuclear fire, and now, renewable sources. So if you can switch your vehicle from internal combustion to electrical, you're going to make two stabs at reducing your greenhouse gas emissions. By using electricity, you're obviously not burning fossil fuels in your car, but you're also using carbon intensive sources for your electricity.”

But while electric vehicles may completely replace gas-powered cars somewhere down the line, O'Koniewski has serious doubts the state will reach its 300,000 goal by 2025 - a target he believes was unrealistic to set given how market demand is still relatively low and the electric vehicle infrastructure has not fully developed.

"If they had just left well enough alone, we wouldn't have an issue," he said.

Material from the State House News Service was used in this report.

Cesareo Contreras writes about environmental issues and technology for the Daily News. He can be reached at 508-626-3957orccontreras@wickedlocal.com. Follow him on Twitter @cesareo_r.