Fenced out: Why independents are the eternal underdogs of Australian politics

Updated

Television crews swarmed the home of Adelaide man and political aspirant Jamie Armfield at 7am.

An independent candidate in the 2016 federal election, Mr Armfield was running for office to address what he believed was a lack of real world experience from MPs in the major parties.

He never dared dream of a media scrum forming outside his home, the TV networks clamouring for a piece of this previously unknown IT security consultant.

There were just two problems: the crews were there because his fence had been set alight. And they were six months too late — the election had been held the previous year.

"Somebody set fire to my brush fence outside of my place, it was a huge fire at about one in the morning. At 7am, I'm getting knocks on the door from all the major networks to come and interview me," he said.

"I'm on the TV and I'm talking and I'm just thinking, you know, where was everybody six months ago?"

The independent tradition

Last year, high-profile independent Kerryn Phelps won the by-election following Malcolm Turnbull's resignation.

The former prime minister's demise also prompted Liberal MP Julia Banks to leave the party and join Ms Phelps on the crossbench the day after she was sworn into Parliament.

Together with fellow independents Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie, and minor party MPs Rebekha Sharkie, Bob Katter and Adam Bandt, this group has used its numbers to test the minority government's control of Parliament.

But influence in a minority parliament is different to electoral appeal.

At the 2016 election, 108 independents contested Lower House seats.

Just two — Mr Wilkie and Ms McGowan — were successful.

What is an 'independent'? Most candidates are from political parties... but if they aren't they are known as independents

Independents often receive fewer votes than candidates from single-issue minor parties such as Bullet Train or Outdoor Recreation partly because the ballot paper doesn't provide any information to voters about their policies

Independents are different to MPs from small parties like Centre Alliance and Katter's Australian Party, although both sit on the crossbench

Political parties usually receive more donations than independents and provide administrative support to candidates

Six months before his fence burned, Mr Armfield attracted a somewhat ordinary response for an independent candidate.

Just 664 residents of the Boothby electorate — 0.7 per cent — backed him, as first-time Liberal candidate Nicolle Flint swept to victory.

The Animal Justice Party candidate garnered more than twice Mr Armfield's tally of votes.

At that election, a typical independent candidate secured about 2 per cent of the first-preference vote — less than candidates from parties such as Bullet Train, Outdoor Recreation and the Fred Nile Group.

Mr Armfield spent around $5,000 on expenses, paid an entry fee of $1,000, and spent weeks away from his business to campaign.

"That was really a case of a learning process for me," he said.

"When I would talk to people directly I would have a positive impact, but in an electorate of 100,000 people, you need some better means to communicate with the whole."

House of Representatives results for independents from elections in the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s make clear the struggle.

While candidates need typically more than 25 per cent of first-preference votes to have a chance of victory — that is, the proportion of people in an electorate that put a '1' next to a candidate's name — the vast majority of independents scrounge less than 5 per cent.

Getting the message out

Despite the current crossbench buzz and a growing dissatisfaction with major parties, ABC election analyst Antony Green has poured cold water on the prospect of independents marching on Canberra at the 2019 poll.

"Any independent hoping to poll well must announce themselves ahead of the election, they must run in the right seat, and they will need plenty of volunteers prepared to help in their quest for election," he said.

But some independent candidates are in with a chance.

Zali Steggall, the winter Olympic medallist and lawyer, has her sights set on Warringah, held by former prime minister Tony Abbott.

Warringah has a history of supporting independents, including 28 per cent of the first-preference vote for Peter Macdonald in 2001.

Former Australian Idol host and political novice James Mathison attracted 11 per cent of the vote in 2016.

Ms Steggall fears she won't have the resources to make up the gap in awareness between her and the incumbent: "The challenge is gaining the firepower to reach everyone in Warringah."

Money extremes in 2016: Liberal Party public funding: $24.2m (per candidate: $172,000 )

(per candidate: ) Labor Party public funding: $23.2m (per candidate: $117,000 )

(per candidate: ) Independent Cathy McGowan public funding: $82,000

Independent Andrew Wilkie public funding: $77,000



Former independent MP Rob Oakeshott, who is running in Cowper in 2019, also identifies the gap in resources between the major parties and independents as the biggest obstacle between him and success, particularly in the weeks immediately before polling day.

"The obvious question voters ask is where the money comes from," he said.

"But when someone's had a busy day and they're feeding the kids and, you know, the ad comes on, it's all somewhat subliminal — advertising works."

Helen Haines hopes to follow the success of Cathy McGowan, who is retiring this year as MP for the north-eastern Victorian seat of Indi.

She faces her own messaging challenge: the nurse and health researcher has been endorsed by Ms McGowan and her closest supporters.

Ms Haines has produced campaign materials that say "keep Indi independent" and says she is proud to be an independent because it's a "very strong" brand in Indi. But voters will see no mention of Ms MsGowan next to Ms Haines on the ballot.

Struggles and opportunities

While high-profile independents are fine-tuning their strategies, others just want to be heard.

Jordan Puku, a 20-year-old independent candidate in 2016 for the Queensland seat of Flynn, focused his campaign on issues like international trade agreements and metadata retention.

He tallied 483 votes.

The Woolworths worker recognises he was young and ran a small campaign — his budget was less than $2,000 — but still feels he was ignored.

"A lot of us candidates had a 'meet the candidates' breakfast at a yacht club. We were presented in order of the ballot and I remember, I think it was Channel Nine, were recording the presentations and as soon as [Labor candidate] Zach Beers had finished they just packed up and left," he said.

"In fact I think it was when I was walking up and just started presenting, the camera crew actually started packing up and making noise and walking off."

It's not just media making it hard for independents, according to Jill Sheppard from the school of politics and international relations at the Australian National University — it's the political establishment.

"The two major parties have raised the bar for minor parties and independent candidates over decades," she said.

Today, candidates for the House of Representatives must pay $2,000 and produce 100 signatures of support in order to run.

"All of these things can seem minor one by one but in total they work together to make the challenge even more difficult," Dr Sheppard said.

"It's just the major parties acting rationally, it's in their interest to try to keep as tight a hold on power as they possibly can as independents pose a threat to their stability."

She notes, however, that the electorate has been steadily turning its back on the major parties since the 1980s.

At the last election the vote for minor parties hit their highest level since 1949.

"The major parties have probably made a rod for their own back in as much as they've been cunning and strategic, but people are starting to see through it," Dr Sheppard said.

Mr Puku believes some restrictions are needed to prevent "joke" candidates running, but that the deposit is too much.

"Someone like me, working at Woolworths, I'd have to work more hours than someone better off than I am just to have a place in an election," he said.

Dr Sheppard believes a less restrictive approach is better aligned with our democratic system.

"My gut instinct is that it's preferable to let as many people run as possible and that we need to trust voters to sort out the serious candidates from, you know, the 'joke' or the provocative candidates," she said.

"Obviously, that makes our already complicated electoral system even more complicated, but I guess I'm loath to put any limits on who should be able to run for parliament.

"That seems kind of fundamental to, you know, a basic understanding of democracy."

Mr Armfield and Mr Puku don't plan to run in 2019, but both feel like they have unfinished business in politics.

For Mr Puku, running is about connecting with people who feel excluded, inviting them to "think a little bit more about why they vote the way that they do".

"And [to tell them], there's always someone out there willing to listen to you, even if you don't feel like there is," he said.

The 2019 federal election is set to be held in May.

Note: A new law in March increased the deposit fee for candidates from $1,000 to $2,000.

Topics: government-and-politics, elections, federal-elections, political-parties, australia

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