Statistically, a Tory victory at the next election is unlikely. British voters tend not to grant a fourth term to governments: it has happened only once in our post-war history. That was under John Major in 1992 in an election in which the government lost 40 seats. But this time, the Tories would go into a general election as a minority government. If this were not handicap enough, they’ll also have to fight the election having spent years dealing with Europe, the subject that splits the party most deeply. Yet, remarkably, the Tories are still in with a chance of winning a fourth term. They have one man to thank for this: Jeremy Corbyn.

If Labour were led by a more conventional figure, politics would be very different. Another opposition leader would be able to tempt more Tories to rebel in pursuit of a soft Brexit. But Corbyn’s left-wing economics, dubious associations and personal Euroscepticism mean that even the most Europhile Tories aren’t inclined to align themselves with him. Corbyn also has problems with the electorate more broadly. A poll this week showed that two-thirds of people think the government is handling Brexit badly — yet still the Tories have a five-point lead. This suggests that doubts about Corbyn, rather than enthusiasm for the Tories, explain the current state of the polls. Further evidence for this is provided by another poll which shows that 72 per cent of voters disapprove of the job Corbyn is doing as leader of the opposition.

Corbyn has a unifying effect on the Tories. There is a sense that whatever their divisions, they mustn’t let someone with his views become prime minister. Without such a bogeyman, the Tories would be even more split than they already are. Read more

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