

Introduction.



First, let me begin with a brief summary of the events leading up to the war, and the key players therein.

The ultimate casus belli, at the heart of the conflict in all its threads and strains, was the incestuous relationship between Jaime Lannister and Cersei Baratheon, and their apparent parenthood of king Robert’s three supposed children – Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella. King Robert himself was, as far as we know, unaware of this; however, several powerful persons in his court were aware.

In addition, of course, to Jaime and Cersei themselves, we know that the king’s eldest brother Stannis had figured it out. Indeed, he may have been the very first person to realize it. It’s possible he suspected it for many years, before he began to act on this suspicion. However, he never acted or spoke openly. After all, if Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella were all bastards, that would make Stannis the heir; and he didn’t want people to dismiss his claim as self-serving. So instead, after presumably many years of grinding his teeth in silence, he eventually confided his belief to Jon Arryn.

Jon Arryn, the king’s foster father, was hand-of-the-king. He was the only person in King’s Landing whom the king trusted. Stannis knew that if the accusation came from Jon, only then would Robert believe it. So he took Jon to visit Robert’s many bastards, to show him how they all resembled Robert in face and hair. Jon consulted a book of genealogies, and began to come to the same conclusion – that Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella were bastards. But before he could lay these allegations before the king, Jon was killed, poisoned by his wife Lysa.

Lysa was involved in an extra-marital affair with Petyr Baelish, a minor lord who, through her patronage, had risen to the heights of the Small Council, and now served as master-of-coin. Lysa killed her husband at Petyr’s request, and with his help in procuring the poison. She did this for two reasons – to be with Petyr, and to protect her son, named Robert after the king, from being sent to foster with Stannis, as her husband Jon had begun to suggest. For his part, Petyr also had two reasons for wanting Jon dead. Firstly, killing Jon would allow him, eventually, to marry Lysa, which would, further, allow him to eventually gain control of the Vale, and become one of the most powerful men in the seven kingdoms. But secondly, knowing that king Robert did not trust anyone in King’s Landing besides Jon, and that, if Jon died, Robert would likely appoint his old friend Eddard Stark as the new hand-of-the-king, Petyr saw a way to get Eddard’s domain, the North, involved in what he saw as an inevitable war.

Petyr knew about Jaime’s and Cersei’s incest. He knew that eventually someone would tell Robert. And when that happened, or was about to happen, one of two things would result: either Robert would have Jaime and Cersei killed; or Jaime and Cersei would have Robert killed. If the former happened, then the resulting war would be very short. Lord Tywin, Jaime’s and Cersei’s father, having only the Westerlands behind him, would likely not attempt to rise in rebellion, or would seek alternative means to war, in order to exact his vengeance. But if the latter happened, then Tywin, through the new king Joffrey, would control both the Westerlands and the Crownlands, and would be in a far superior position to defend his grandchildren’s claims against Robert’s brothers Stannis and Renly. Open war would almost certainly result, and almost certainly be long and bloody. This was a desirable state of affairs for Petyr, who thrives and prospers in times of chaos.

But even then, the war would not be long and bloody enough. After all, with the Westerlands and the Crownlands behind him, and loyal lords from the Riverlands and elsewhere likely also joining him in defending what they would see as a rightful king, Tywin would probably easily steamroll over Stannis and Renly. Petyr needed a way of bringing at least one more of the great houses into the war against the Lannisters. And by disposing of Jon Arryn and bringing in Eddard Stark to take his place, Petyr could accomplish exactly that.



What really happened.



At this point in the story, with Jon dead, and with Robert at Winterfell trying to persuade Eddard to come south and serve as hand, something happened which had a profound effect on the events of the coming war.

Eddard has five children – Robb, Bran, Rickon, Sansa, and Arya. He also has a supposed bastard boy, Jon Snow. When Eddard decides to accept Robert’s appointment, he makes plans for each of these children. His wife Catelyn will remain in Winterfell with Robb and little Rickon. Bran, Sansa, and Arya will come south to King’s Landing, to mingle with the court. Bran, in particular, will likely find some knight to squire for, in the hopes of one day becoming a knight himself. Sansa will be betrothed to prince Joffrey. And Arya will be trained in the ways of a southron court, with the goal of one day also being betrothed. Jon Snow will leave Winterfell as well, but in the opposite direction, to go to the Wall and join the Night’s Watch.

But something fateful happens. While Robert and Eddard are out on a hunting trip, Bran passes the time doing his favorite thing – climbing the walls of Winterfell. And while climbing, he stumbles across Jaime and Cersei making love in an abandoned tower. Jaime seizes him, and, knowing that the realm will bleed if their incest is discovered, pushes the boy out the window. He falls to the earth; his back is broken; and he is sent into a deep coma.

Eddard heads south with only Sansa and Arya, leaving Bran behind. And some time after he leaves, Bran is attacked by an unknown assassin, wielding a distinctive knife. Catelyn, having received a letter from Lysa, her sister, telling her that it was the Lannisters who killed Jon Arryn, correctly surmises that Bran must have stumbled across Jaime and Cersei, and been pushed out of the tower window, but incorrectly assumes that he must merely have overheard them discussing Jon’s murder. She assumes that they must have been the ones who sent the assassin.

(Note that, so far in the series, it has never been conclusively revealed who really sent the assassin. We know that it was definitely not Jaime; and we know that both Jaime and his brother Tyrion believe that it was Joffrey; but the indisputable truth is never presented to the reader. For the purposes of this essay, it will not be important who really sent the assassin.)

The fallout from this event is— it cannot be understated— world-altering. Catelyn undertakes a secret journey south to tell Eddard of her suspicions in person. Petyr Baelish finds out about her arrival in King’s Landing, confronts her, and, upon examining the assassin’s knife, claims that it belongs to Tyrion Lannister. After meeting with Eddard, Catelyn heads back north along the Kingsroad, then, upon accidentally crossing paths with Tyrion on his way back from a visit to the Wall, promptly seizes him, and absconds with him to the Vale, to join forces with her sister Lysa.

As a direct response to Tyrion’s arrest, lord Tywin launches a proxy war in the Riverlands, with the goal of seizing Riverrun and ransoming Catelyn’s brother Edmure in exchange for Tyrion (as well as exacting a little bit of revenge, for the sleight against the Lannister name). One of the forces Tywin sends out is commanded by Amory Lorch.

As Petyr intended, Eddard Stark continues Jon Arryn’s investigations, discovers the truth of Jaime’s and Cersei’s incest, and prepares to confront Robert. Also as Petyr intended, Cersei beats Eddard to the punch, and has Robert assassinated. Stannis and Renly having already fled King’s Landing, Joffrey assumes the iron throne, and has Eddard imprisoned. With his mother Catelyn away from Winterfell, Eddard’s son Robb assumes the role of its lord. He summons his banners, marches south into the Riverlands, and joins the war against Tywin Lannister, with the goal of doing sufficient damage as to compel Eddard’s release in exchange for peace. Joffrey goes rogue and has Eddard executed, exacerbating the situation. Robb’s banners, enraged, reject Joffrey as king, and proclaim Robb as king-in-the-north. Most of the riverlander lords join in this proclamation.

Arya Stark, having escaped King’s Landing, attempts to travel north with Yoren, a brother of the Night’s Watch. They eventually run into Amory Lorch, who butchers their entire party. Arya flees, and never returns to Winterfell.



What could have happened.



Let us suppose that Bran never climbed that tower, that day. He never fell. An assassin was never sent after him. He went south with Eddard, Sansa, and Arya. Catelyn remained in Winterfell as acting lady paramount of the North.

As before, Eddard discovers the truth of Jaime’s and Cersei’s incest. He prepares to confront Robert, but is outmanoeuvred. Robert dies; Eddard is arrested; and Catelyn and Robb are summoned by Cersei to come to King’s Landing and bend the knee.

Also as before, Arya escapes from Cersei; but let us suppose, this time, that Bran escapes with her.

In the south, Renly Baratheon rises in rebellion. Since, in this alternate history, Tyrion was never arrested by Catelyn, Tywin has not invaded the Riverlands. His armies are free to march south and engage Renly in the Reach. The Riverlands are left largely unmolested.

When Cersei’s letter reaches Catelyn, Robb is, as before, furious, and wishes to call his banners and go to war. But this time, there is no war in the Riverlands to join; and this time, his mother is there to put a stop to these ambitions. She is a devoted wife, and fears terribly for her husband’s life. She forces Robb to come with her to King’s Landing to swear fealty to Joffrey, in exchange for Eddard’s release. She leaves Rodrik Cassel as castellan of Winterfell, and only little Rickon Stark behind with him.

When they arrive in King’s Landing, just as before, Joffrey goes rogue. He has them seized, and, along with Eddard, all three executed. Bran and Arya subsequently escape the city with Yoren.

Far in the north, as far as the world knows, little Rickon is the last of Eddard’s sons left alive and safe. But with Eddard’s entire household all gone off to King’s Landing and killed, as well as many of his knights and retainers, Winterfell is incredibly weakened. As soon as word arrives of the deaths of Eddard, Catelyn, and Robb, house Bolton makes its move, and seizes the castle. King Joffrey names lord Roose as the new warden of the North. Roose hands the castle over to house Karstark, in exchange for their loyalty, and hands Rickon over to house Manderly, in exchange for their loyalty. Most of the other houses remain taciturn, refusing to declare their loyalty openly, but not raising arms in rebellion either.

In the south, Stannis and Renly are getting their asses handed to them by lord Tywin, who, in this alternate history, no longer has to divide his forces between defending against them and fighting Robb Stark in the Riverlands.

As they pass through the Neck, Bran and Arya hear about lord Roose’s treachery, perhaps from a passing traveler. Yoren knows that there is now no place in the North that is safe for them. He therefore turns aside to attempt to find Greywater Watch, and leave them with Howland Reed. Seeing that Yoren and his company are dressed in the colors of the Night’s Watch, lord Howland’s men welcome Yoren, and help him reach Greywater safely. Bran and Arya are left with Howland; and Yoren departs with a few more troublemakers for his band of recruits. Bran and Arya meet and befriend Howland’s children, Jojen and Meera.

Lord Howland himself swears fealty to Bran Stark as his new liege lord, and lord paramount of the North. His own forces are only warriors of the crannogs, who would be no use in waging a war against more traditional knights and soldiers outside of the Neck. He therefore sends ravens to some of the greater lords of the North who are still holding out against the Boltons – namely, the Umbers, the Glovers, and the Mormonts. These lords agree to provide passage for Bran, via the Sunset Sea, to the Last Hearth, where they will amass their forces, declare for him, and march to retake Winterfell.

Since Robb Stark never marched south with the North’s military forces, in this alternate history, Balon Greyjoy never sees an opportunity to attack the North and proclaim himself king. As a result, Bran and Arya sail from the Neck to Deepwood Motte, unmolested.

After they arrive at the Last Hearth, and Bran reveals himself to the North, greater and lesser lords from coast to coast declare for him. Only the Boltons, Karstarks, and Manderlys, and a few of their allies, stand in resistance. Bran’s restoration goes swiftly, and with little bloodshed. Within a month, the Boltons and the Karstarks have surrendered. Lord Wyman Manderly sues for peace, and releases little Rickon to be returned to Winterfell to be with his brother and sister.

Cersei Lannister, seeing that lord Roose has been defeated, sends another letter north, this time asking Bran to come and bend the knee, in exchange for being instated as warden of the North. But when the letter arrives, all of his loyal lords loudly reject it. They fought to take Winterfell back from the Boltons; they’re not going to hand their new lord over to the Lannisters to be executed like his parents and brother. Jon Umber proclaims Bran as king-in-the-north; and the other lords take up the cry. They march their forces south into the Riverlands, where the Tullys join up with them, also proclaiming Bran as their king, Edmure in particular lusting for vengeance for the execution of his sister. Brynden, Catelyn’s uncle, comes down from the Vale to swear his sword to king Bran. They march south to join the war.