LONDON — A new year has brought yet another crisis to the United Kingdom's Independence Party.

UKIP’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) on Sunday passed a vote of no confidence in leader Henry Bolton, who took the helm less than four months ago. Unless Bolton resigns, the NEC vote will have to be signed off within 28 days by a vote among the party’s dwindling membership, who will ultimately decide whether to wave goodbye to their third leader since the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Without backing from a single member of the NEC, Bolton’s position now looks untenable.

The former army officer and Liberal Democrat candidate was in trouble the moment he decided to leave his family over Christmas for a relationship with model Jo Marney. Infidelity never goes down well in a party filled with traditional social conservatives, and Marney's racist messages about Prince Harry’s fiancé Meghan Markle further irritated a party that has both tried to distance itself from accusations of racism and long supported the monarchy.

But even before the latest scandal, many "Kippers" were skeptical about whether Bolton could turn around the fortunes of a party that has seen its polling collapse from nearly 20 percent shortly before the referendum to 3 percent, and which has lost the vast majority of its local councillors.

With the party machinery in disarray and Prime Minister Theresa May's government divided over where it wants to end up after Britain leaves the European Union, reports resurfaced this weekend that Nigel Farage may fancy (another) comeback.

No Nigel 2.0

Victory for Leave in June 2016 removed the very raison d'être for a party that had made campaigning for a referendum its only focus. Once this was achieved, UKIP swiftly descended into a prolonged period of bitter infighting and chaos.

It quickly went through two leaders — Diane James, who quit less than a month after being elected, and Paul Nuttall, who at the 2017 general election tried to sustain UKIP’s core support by criticizing Islam and immigration but saw its support crash by more than 10 points to just 1.8 percent. Along the way the party lost members and money. Some insiders now suggest it is perilously close to bankruptcy.

UKIP is being squeezed on two fronts.

Inside the party there is no obvious successor to Bolton. Many of the party’s MEPs and long-time activists are simply not household names and lack the charisma of Farage. Behind the scenes, the party’s ruling body has never proven itself able to master the art of stability — during its 25 years of existence, the party has whittled through no less than 14 elected or acting leaders.

Bolton's leadership crisis was compounded this weekend by reports that former leader Farage plans to set up "UKIP 2.0" — a new, pro-Brexit party that would pressure the Conservative Party to deliver a "real" Brexit, not the kind of soft Brexit that they associate with May and her chancellor, Philip Hammond.

Such a move, were it to materialize, would instantly kill off UKIP. Every single leadership candidate whom Farage has backed has won while everybody who Farage has disliked has ended up resigning or being pushed out (remember Robert Kilroy-Silk?). The unwritten rule in UKIP land says: "Nigel always wins." Were he to start a new party, most of UKIP's membership would follow him.

However, this isn't the first time Farage and his multimillionaire ally Arron Banks have talked about setting up a new movement. In the aftermath of the 2016 referendum, Banks talked openly about the need to establish something broader that avoided UKIP’s internal weaknesses.

Both Banks and Farage felt frustrated with the party's internal organization and looked instead to groups like the 5Star Movement in Italy — a more flexible model that decentralizes power to the grassroots.

It is for this reason that Banks has retained his large database of supporters through his Leave.EU network, while Farage has cultivated links to donors in the City and businesses who share his concerns over the dilution — and perhaps reversal — of Brexit, but who will not invest big sums in the amateurish UKIP without Farage’s direct involvement.

Over the past year, both have also cultivated networks in the U.S. which could provide further support (as demonstrated by Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, who draws significant funds from backers on the East Coast). Farage has frequently been in the U.S. since President Donald Trump's election and is helped by the fact that his well-connected former chief of staff, Raheem Kassam, is based in the U.S.

May's exposed right flank

Farage clearly sees value in setting up a cross-party network that can appeal not only to Kippers but also to the likes of Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, who represents hard Brexiteers in the Conservative camp, and to Labour MPs such as Kate Hoey or Frank Field, the unofficial representatives of the 140 Labour-held districts that also voted Leave. He also wants to launch a more assertive business lobby that can push back against the likes of the Confederation of British Industry and make the economic case for a successful Brexit.

For this group, "real Brexit" does not mean a transition period, any continued involvement of the European Court of Justice, or paying big money to the EU, and they would only accept continuing with free movement in another name in order to secure a preferable trade deal. They want to cut cords with the EU entirely, fall back on the World Trade Organization rules if necessary, and focus on striking free-trade deals around the world, along the way ending free movement once and for all.

"I think there is a really big need to get Leave campaigners back working together," Farage said on his LBC radio show earlier on Sunday. "I think we need a much more coherent business voice out there arguing for Leave … unless those arguments continue to be made and to be campaigned for, I fear that the deal, whatever it is, it doesn’t look like a very good one, may lose in the Commons, precipitating a crisis and I fear a second referendum."

The key period in his mind, I imagine, will be September 2018 through to March 2019, when details of the Brexit deal get hammered out, the U.K. parliament holds a vote on it and the March 2019 deadline nears.

Farage once told me during an interview that he likes to buy political stock when the price is low and sell when the price is high. With UKIP crashing through the floor and May’s government divided on Brexit, this may be the period when he decides to buy some new stock and re-enter the fray.

Is there space for such a party were it to emerge?

The answer hinges on what type of Brexit deal May signs up to and whether this deal is endorsed by the Commons. If the deal is perceived as too soft — a Norway-type deal — disgruntled elements within and outside of the Conservative Party will start to look for other ways to pile pressure on the government. So too will working-class voters on both the left and right who voted Leave in the expectation that Brexit will deliver sharp reductions in immigration.

Another plausible outcome is that the final Brexit deal is rejected by the Commons, a move that will only pour gasoline on the suspicion among Leavers that "the elite" in Britain and Brussels are out to thwart their vote. Enter Farage and Co., who will argue that Brexiteers have been betrayed and an establishment stitch-up is at hand.

Of course, much will also depend on whether Farage himself decides to return. My instinct tells me that he probably will but then who would predict anything in British politics anymore.

Matthew Goodwin is professor of politics at the University of Kent and senior fellow at Chatham House and is the co-author of “Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union” (Cambridge University Press, 2017).