Over the last two decades, American presidential elections have all been relatively close. But with Donald Trump at the helm, the Republican Party faces the prospect of a historic landslide closer to the creamings received by Barry Goldwater in 1964 (who lost by 23.6 points), George McGovern in 1972 (24.2 percentage points), and Walter Mondale in 1984 (19.4 percentage points). At this point, the only real question appears to be how huge (or beautiful—pick your Trumpian adjective) the margin will be.

To lose by more than 10 percent in 2016, as Trump could easily do, would be a remarkable achievement of sorts, given how evenly split Americans have been in recent years and how reluctant they are to leave their preferred parties. The last election even approaching a landslide was in 1996, when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole by an eight-point margin. Since then, elections have been tight. Even in 2008, when the Democrats should by all rights have won massively—with Republicans dragged down by an unpopular war and the start of the biggest economic recession since 1929, and with John McCain facing the most talented politician of the last generation—Barack Obama’s victory was only by a 7-percent margin, which narrowed to four in 2012.



Trump seems destined to break this pattern—and if his campaign continues on its current trajectory, it’s not inconceivable that he could tally less that 40 percent of the vote, which no candidate has managed since George H.W Bush in 1992, 24 years ago, in a three-person race. This is only partially because Trump’s polling numbers have taken a dive recently; a recent Bloomberg poll shows Clinton enjoying a double-digit lead over Trump, getting 49 percent to his 37 percent. But the Bloomberg poll is only a snapshot of a moment, and poll numbers are likely to fluctuate as the race proceeds. The real reason to think Trump will tank in an historical way on election day has to do with the essential nature of the unorthodox campaign Trump is running, as against Clinton’s more traditional effort.

Clinton, whatever her flaws, is a mainstream politician who has a proven ability to raise huge amounts of money and enjoys broad support within her party. Despite the lingering frustrations of many Bernie Sanders’s supporters being reluctant to support her, Clinton’s recent upsurge in polling shows that she is already consolidating Democrats behind her.

Trump won’t have a solid Republican coalition behind him. When he became the presumptive Republican nominee six weeks ago, he briefly began consolidating Republican support, but that effort has now stalled and indeed is fraying, with two major party figures—Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin—backtracking from their earlier endorsements. As Kirk tweeted on June 7, “Given my military experience, Donald Trump does not have the temperament to command our military or our nuclear arsenal.”