“What if Player X makes a leap like Pascal Siakam …”



It’s a comment I’ve seen more than a few times over the last year, and while I’m not here to tell anyone when and where to wish-cast on their favourite team’s roster, let’s stop right there. Siakam is not the first prospect to make a leap and ruin the curve on which basketball fans project players, nor will he be the last. But he’s the most recent and, with a 2018-19 NBA championship ring coming his way, one of the most important. Siakam is all exception and little rule. There is only one.



This week, I’ll be running a three-part mini-series on player development as we try to establish expectations for the Toronto Raptors.



I wanted to create statistical baselines to work from, at least to set the bar at a reasonable level. Projecting individual players is incredibly difficult and it’s easy to fall into the trap of considering only the...