READER COMMENTS ON

"NH Primary: Pre-Election Polls Wildly Different Than Results Announced for Clinton/Obama"

(275 Responses so far...)





COMMENT #1 [Permalink]

... Bruce said on 1/8/2008 @ 9:08 pm PT...





Yet the New Hampshire Union Leader indicated that on 1/6 "Roughly 20 percent of those expecting to vote in the Democratic primary still hadn’t yet made up their minds on Sunday, according to the latest tracking poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center."

http://www.unionleader.c...cideds%20are%20the%20key Note those who supported Clinton; Also note how the media is portraying Clinton's 'victory' as an 'upset'; and just so someone might think I'm an Obama supporter whining, no, I'm a Kucinich/Gravel supporter on the Dem side and a Ron Paul supporter on the Repub side.

COMMENT #2 [Permalink]

... DMcD said on 1/8/2008 @ 9:11 pm PT...





I love that these polls were sooo wrong. I think polls have a place but not when it comes to elections. I think they can be manipulated easily , in a number of ways for a variety of motives --- they can be wrong entirely --- they can give voters a 'whats the point' outlook and discourage voter participation --- they may produce an indirect but still effective peer pressure scenario --- or --- create an unfair 'jump on the bandwagon' effect for the weak-minded who just want to say they were on the side of the winner ( who , as it may be , isn't truly the winner , at all). I think polling should be removed (or somehow , fairly regulated) as a pre-election tool --- I see it as a medium that carries too much harmful potential and may unfairly influence elections. But then , thats just what "I" think -----

COMMENT #3 [Permalink]

... epiphanylou said on 1/8/2008 @ 9:31 pm PT...





They don't use voting machines in Iowa?...

COMMENT #4 [Permalink]

... Peter said on 1/8/2008 @ 9:36 pm PT...





The results tonight defy all logic and reason. Not even the Clinton campaign was prepared for this. Not even for one second did they give themselves in any scenario a chance to win. They were expecting a 5-10% loss. Something is rotten in Denmark.

COMMENT #5 [Permalink]

... Wataru Tenga said on 1/8/2008 @ 9:42 pm PT...





Note that as soon as the polls closed, CNN looked at its own exit polls and decided it was too close to call. That suggests to me the results are genuine.

COMMENT #6 [Permalink]

... Julie said on 1/8/2008 @ 9:49 pm PT...





So much for Obama saying he wouldn't put up with stolen elections. I don't know why he conceded so fast until he knew at least knew what the percentage of undecideds were on Monday. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb. I don't think Edwards would have conceded if he'd had such a big lead over Clinton going into the vote. I wonder if the NH Union Leader tracked it beyond Sunday and into Monday? Does MSNBC's Olbermann know that these machines were the same as the one Hurtsi hacked? He seems the most likely to look into it (if they let him look into it).

COMMENT #7 [Permalink]

... patginsd said on 1/8/2008 @ 9:51 pm PT...





The whose thing is theater.

The media together with their pollsters and opscan vote shredders play us like a fiddle every election.

And every election, we struggle to catch them with the goods.

Even when Bev catches them red-handed, no courts mete out justice.

Someone please shoot me.

COMMENT #8 [Permalink]

... Karen said on 1/8/2008 @ 9:57 pm PT...





Brad

I don't see it on cnn - but I heard Wolf say

that voters who made up their minds at the polls

split evenly between Obama and Clinton. Thus,

there is no explanation. Other than Democrats, and not all, just Obama and Clinton Democrats, all lied to pollsters. Republicans did not lie. Give me a break ! Some at DU on to this. Heaven help us again. Deja Vu - FL 04. Kerry up 3 night before - Bush "wins" by 6 - Variance 9 points. But even more telling than tonight - the people who decided at the polls broke to Kerry. Keep up the fight ! Laura PackYourBags at democraticunderground.com

COMMENT #9 [Permalink]

... Ska-T said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:03 pm PT...





Brad, I love the way you keep us informed. Minor typo, since I'm telling my friends to read this, change "Kerry should have one" to "Kerry should have won."

COMMENT #10 [Permalink]

... Progressive Troll said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:11 pm PT...





What Patginsd at 9:51 said. Especially that last line. I don't think I can stand another round of this bs.

COMMENT #11 [Permalink]

... Julie said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:19 pm PT...





Thanks Brad, for getting all this info out to us.

COMMENT #12 [Permalink]

... papau said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:21 pm PT...





non-male won - - - so it must be election theft? - besides if Clinton "won" there is an error Any proof or exit poll suggestion of error- say even a 3rd hand report of funny stuff - nah - not needed if we are just implying vote theft and not actually stating that there was theft. Did we check if exit polls do not reflect result? - or is it no point checking - wrong person won?

COMMENT #13 [Permalink]

... Brad Friedman said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:24 pm PT...





Nice to see the National Review folks here (they linked up). Sad to see they are so naive, however. DMcD - Polls are your only independent source to determine whether election results are accurate. If you want to do away with them, you are doing away with your democracy. Entirely. If you have any evidence that ALL of those polls were ALL wrong, please let me know what it is. Karen - Heard the same thing reported on MSNBC, and noted in an update in the original post above. SKA-T - Typo fixed. Thanks. Seat of our pants on this one tonight...Sorry.

COMMENT #14 [Permalink]

... Court of Progressive Justice said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:24 pm PT...





presidential election ~ liars olympics

COMMENT #15 [Permalink]

... papau said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:29 pm PT...





Obama came in much higher than Iowa polls..was that vote rigged too? Final Results - - 37.5 29.4 29.7 0.9 2.1 Obama +7.8 RCP Average 12/26 - 01/02 - 30.8 29.2 26.0 5.4 5.2 Obama +1.6 InsiderAdvantage 01/02 - 01/02 415 LV 34 32 33 --- -- Obama +1.0 American Res. Group 12/31 - 01/02 600 LV 25 34 21 8 6 Clinton +9.0 Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 12/30 - 01/02 905 LV 31 24 27 5 7 Obama +4.0 Strategic Vision (R) 12/28 - 12/30 600 LV 32 27 29 5 2 Obama +3.0 Des Moines Register 12/27 - 12/30 800 LV 32 25 24 4 6 Obama +7.0 CNN 12/26 - 12/30 482 LV 31 33 22 5 5 Clinton +2.0 he came in higher than predicted, so was that rigged too, or is it just the Hillary results that are disturbing some of you, Brad? FYI

http://www.cnn.com/ELECT.../epolls/index.html#NHDEM EXIT POLL- CLINTON 39% OBAMA 37%

COMMENT #16 [Permalink]

... Matt said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:30 pm PT...





Thanks for bringing this to our attention. I think it will be interesting to see if those precincts which tallied the vote by hand differed considerably and followed more of what the pre-election polls showed. On the other hand, I'd like you to take a look at these exit polls done by the company which all the media outlets use:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225995/

If you take the results from the male/female results (the first set of data) and then calculate the total vote the exit polls read: Obama 18.06 + 19.38 = 37.44 Clinton 12.9 + 26.79 = 39.69 Which I think you will agree looks a lot like the final vote count. All of this doesn't matter, though, as Obama and all of us are going to carry on the fight and win this.

COMMENT #17 [Permalink]

... Michelle Meaders said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:36 pm PT...





If they are optical scan machines, that means paper ballots. You should be able to count them again, by hand or with another machine. A sample count should tell you how accurate the previous count was. That's the beauty of paper ballots!

COMMENT #18 [Permalink]

... DES said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:40 pm PT...





Papau --- are you trying to imply that this whole discussion is only because the "wrong" person --- Clinton --- won tonight? I can answer that for you --- NO. Pre-election polls can be wrong, but it's out of the ordinary for EVERYONE to be this surprised by it --- even the internal polling numbers in the Obama camp and the Clinton camp reflected an Obama win, on top of every single other pre-election poll out there. It doesn't add up. And here we pay attention to ANYTHING that doesn't add up, without favor or regard to whether they are left or right, dem or repub. The raw exit poll data are never released (and no longer leaked), so there is no way to compare. The exit poll data is "weighted" and re-adjusted to more closely align with the results. There is no rumor, no suggestion, no hint at this time of any nefarious activity, as Brad makes crystal clear in his article. The past seven years, however, of hinky exit polls and "surprise" upset election results has made most of us here suspicious of easy answers, especially when the data doesn't match. We're concerned strictly with accurate, honest elections, no matter who ends up winning in the end.

COMMENT #19 [Permalink]

... Jon in Iowa said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:46 pm PT...





epiphanylou said, "They don't use voting machines in Iowa?" The answer is that we don't use them for caucuses. Some Republican caucuses may have, but the ones I heard about just used index cards. (Yes, actual paper ballots, of a sort.) Democrats do a body count; it's not a secret election, and there's a lot of cajoling to steal support and to pick up proponents of candidates who don't meet the 15% viability threshold. But enough of our arcane practices. Brad, here's the issue with the "chicanery" idea, as I see it: this was a primary, not an all-or-nothing election. Even if it had gone according to the polls, the outcome would've shifted maybe one delegate. The Clintons may be political cut-throats, but stealing this one is about like a driver burning his secret rocket engines to beat traffic on the way to the track.

COMMENT #20 [Permalink]

... the_zapkitty said on 1/8/2008 @ 10:51 pm PT...





I think an important thing to watch for is actually none of the above issues... it's this: Will it now be considered "alright" to even question and investigate unexpected election results? If not... ask (pointedly) why not.

COMMENT #21 [Permalink]

... Peter said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:01 pm PT...





Jon in Iowa, you said "Brad, here's the issue with the "chicanery" idea, as I see it: this was a primary, not an all-or-nothing election. Even if it had gone according to the polls, the outcome would've shifted maybe one delegate. The Clintons may be political cut-throats, but stealing this one is about like a driver burning his secret rocket engines to beat traffic on the way to the track." Its not about 1 delegate. It can be many things. 1. A test to see if they can pull it off.

(New Hampshire being a nice small state to do it)

2. A total shift in the story line and momentum.

3. The Republicans dont want to run against Obama because they would have no chance.

4. It's Fraud!

5. WTF! It was a 14% swing from CLINTONS own #'s! From the MASTER MARK PENN! Thats not normal!

COMMENT #22 [Permalink]

... emlev said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:02 pm PT...





Jon in Iowa,

You wrote, ...this was a primary, not an all-or-nothing election. Even if it had gone according to the polls, the outcome would've shifted maybe one delegate. The Clintons may be political cut-throats, but stealing this one is about like a driver burning his secret rocket engines to beat traffic on the way to the track. Consider, please, that perceived "momentum" weighs heavily in these things, and it's been ages since a Dem who won in both Iowa and NH didn't get the Dem. nomination. Consider also that there's been at least one study that predicts that Hillary would be the easiest Dem for the top GOP candidates to beat. If it should turn out (and now we're just asking questions, not yet answering them) that there was any foul play in this election, it doesn't necessarily mean it was done by or on behalf of Hillary Clinton's campaign.

COMMENT #23 [Permalink]

... CharlieL said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:03 pm PT...





I hate to break it to you folks, but 10% of the Democrats in the rural state of New Hampshire are white, traditional, middle-class, working people who are also BIGOTS. They will tell a poll watcher that they are going to vote for Obama, but when they get into a secret polling station, they won't actually make the vote. Please, remember, in Iowa the caucuses required people to stand up and actually MAKE their vote in public --- not a secret ballot. So there are some bigots out there. No biggie.

COMMENT #24 [Permalink]

... Ska-T said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:15 pm PT...





Jon in Iowa suggests that Clinton had little to gain in NH by election fraud. First, IF there were election fraud I don't think Brad is suggesting that the Clinton's had anything to do with it. The corporations that control vote counting, however, may think she is the most corporate friendly of the Democrats. Second, the importance of winning NH is momentum for the next primaries AND the influx of donations from the bandwagon effect. That IS substantial.

COMMENT #25 [Permalink]

... emlev said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:15 pm PT...





Peter, You and I are apparently thinking not only along the same lines, but at the same time!

COMMENT #26 [Permalink]

... DMcD said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:15 pm PT...





Brad I'm surprised by your somewhat confusing response. All I can surmise is that you misunderstood my intent. I thought your whole thing was about keeping the election process "fair and honest" to all. My comment was in keeping with that premise. It now seems apparent that we think in vastely differing wave lenghts --- Oh , nevermind ------ Goodbye. P.S. Please delete my e-mail & cookie ID from your system. Thx

COMMENT #27 [Permalink]

... Agent 99 said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:18 pm PT...





My brain has gone blank from dumping the wrath building up from watching these not-good-enough front-runners speaking in spin-bytes and performing as though their acting coaches are just off camera. This "result" is WAY, WAY, WAY into the ultra-suspicious zone, and we need armies of Constitution defenders standing over every last bit of every last election, and every last poll, in every last precinct in America. I don't think the vast majority of Americans have the first part of a clue HOW bad this really is.

COMMENT #28 [Permalink]

... Impeach said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:28 pm PT...





http://www.itszone.co.uk...e0/viewtopic.php?t=83295 Look for the story, Israel companies count our ballots in Iowa. Vox.

COMMENT #29 [Permalink]

... Karen said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:29 pm PT...





Brad, Your last comments kind of change the equation since Obama's numbers didn't change (assume no switching). The only LEGITIMATE explanation is that Clinton - (not Obama, nor any other Dem or any Republican )miraculously "found" thousands of unlikely voters (unpolled)to get to the polls and vote for her. We are talking in the neighborhood of 20,000? Obama was ahead by 8 plus her 2 pt win - 10% of 200k (not sure final total). Now, how the people were "found" is the question. Laura PackYourBags

DU

COMMENT #30 [Permalink]

... Paul said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:31 pm PT...





Wow, the GOP voting machinery really wants Hillary as the contender. More than that, it extends the horse race in our commercialized democracy. Politics: the ultimate (rigged) craps-shoot.

COMMENT #31 [Permalink]

... DES said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:33 pm PT...





First off, as EmLev says above, THIS IS ONLY ABOUT ASKING THE QUESTIONS. Whenever there is a surprise election result, we look into it. That's what we do here. Wildly differing polls vs. results is a pertinent question to the readers of this site, because we are concerned with ACCURATE ELECTIONS and not the name of the person/party that wins. Matt, published exit polling does not reflect the raw data from the voters --- Mitofsky said in 2004 that they re-weight and re-adjust the exit polls to align with the results. Papau, this is not about whomever it was you wanted to win. Besides, Zogby was dead-on in his predictions for Obama to win in Iowa, but he was wildly off in NH --- that is just plain weird. CharlieL, the Pew Research Center concluded that race doesn't seem to be a factor anymore. Like you say, it can't be completely discounted, tho. DmcD, apparently I misunderstood what you were trying to say, too. It seemed that you were advocating abolishing exit polls. I would have to disagree with that, too, because that information can't be obtained anywhere else in any other way. Not sure what you mean. It'll be interesting to see what the conventional wisdom is tomorrow in explaining how they could be so wrong.

COMMENT #32 [Permalink]

... Carol Davidek-Waller said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:33 pm PT...





Check out blackboxvoting.org for the scoop on New Hampshires optical scanning machines. They are the same ones hacked and outlawed in Leon County.

One man, a private contractor has access to every memory and chip in the state.

You may be right about Obama's concession being inappropriate. He's a player and if his betters say wait till next time then he'd take a fall.

COMMENT #33 [Permalink]

... Ska-T said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:34 pm PT...





RE: The Bradley Effect. I am a native Californian and voted in the Bradley vs Deukmejian election. I don't think all of the so called Bradley effect was due to racism. Many typical Democrats and Independents, that I talked to, the kind that don't pay attention until the last minute, decided to vote for Deukmejian because of Bradley's pro gun control stance.

COMMENT #34 [Permalink]

... JUDGE OF JUDGES said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:37 pm PT...





IMO ~ a deal (Big fucking) was cut with Obama & the gop. How awkward Olbermann et al making excuses for Hillary's lead. It was Fun to see Rachel Maddow give Pat buchanan a spanking.

COMMENT #35 [Permalink]

... Soul Rebel said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:40 pm PT...



COMMENT #36 [Permalink]

... Brad Friedman said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:43 pm PT...





Papau asked: he came in higher than predicted, so was that rigged too, or is it just the Hillary results that are disturbing some of you, Brad? First, I don't believe I ever said anything was "rigged". But I have asked about what's gone on during the secret voting counting procedures in New Hampshire. Now the vote counting in Iowa was fairly transparent on the Dem side. But it's completely opaque in the Diebold machine counted counties of New Hampshire. Couple that with the inexplicable results (unlike prior to Iowa with Obama, there was no known "Hillary surge" under way). Hope that answers your questions.

COMMENT #37 [Permalink]

... Brad Friedman said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:45 pm PT...





Papau again asked (sarcastically): Did we check if exit polls do not reflect result? - or is it no point checking - wrong person won? Would be happy to check. Do you have access to that Exit Poll data? The ones that were collected before they were adjusted (as they are, after the election) to fit the election results? As mentioned in my original post, I'd love to see it. Not sure what a "non-male" or any of the other nonsense you suggest has to do with anything.

COMMENT #38 [Permalink]

... Karen said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:46 pm PT...





Judge of Judges How about a quid pro quo for someone knowing

04 stunk to high heaven (and could make national news with that information) and was desperate to stop the Obama train?

COMMENT #39 [Permalink]

... Agent 99 said on 1/8/2008 @ 11:58 pm PT...



COMMENT #40 [Permalink]

... Brad Friedman said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:04 am PT...





Matt #16 - Was about to add your numbers from the MSNBC Exit Poll data you pointed, as an update, since I agree, they look very much like the final results. But then when checking the link you gave, it doesn't seem anymore to match the numbers you offered. Did you happen to save a screenshot per chance? Hoping so! Please note, Exit Polls are traditionally adjusted (believe it or not) to match the final results after the close of polls. It's unclear whether the page linked above has been adjusted or not, since I don't see the numbers you're referring to above. If those were RAW numbers, then yes, I'd agree they seem quite close to the final results. But the numbers at that page now don't seem to reflect the above at all, unless one of us is looking at the wrong place.

COMMENT #41 [Permalink]

... DES said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:07 am PT...





Early WaPo conventional wisdom: But [Rahm Emanuel] took heart in the energy that emerged for both candidates --- tens of thousands more voters came out to vote for a Democrat yesterday than voted for a Republican. ... he got that right. And another one: Most polls accurately reflected the large bloc of likely Democratic voters yet to make up their minds or who said they were open to switching their support in the closing days. On the network exit poll, nearly 4 in 10 said they made their final decision within the last three days; 17 percent said they decided how to vote yesterday. Among those making up their minds on the day of the primary, 40 percent supported Clinton, 37 percent Obama. Clinton did even better among the half of the electorate who settled on their choice a month or more ago. But the late polls missed on how votes divided by gender. Pre-election polls from CNN-WMUR-University of New Hampshire and USA Today-Gallup showed Obama and Clinton about evenly splitting female voters and Obama winning men by a margin of 2 to 1. But Clinton won among women by 13 percentage points, exit polls showed, and she lost among men more narrowly than suggested, drawing 30 percent to Obama's 42 percent. Yesterday's result is sure to fuel speculation --- thought finally retired by a strong showing in 2006 --- that polls are less accurate when an African American is in the race. A more likely culprit is voter modeling, with pollsters perhaps over-counting the boost of enthusiasm among Obama supporters following his victory in Iowa. Another possibility is that independents opted at the last minute to vote in the Republican primary, depriving Obama of votes.

COMMENT #42 [Permalink]

... JUDGE OF JUDGES said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:09 am PT...





Karen ~

I don't have clue of what quid pro quo (horse face trade) could be ...

COMMENT #43 [Permalink]

... BeeSting said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:10 am PT...





Brad

I'm sure you've seen this by now, but if not.... http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS

COMMENT #44 [Permalink]

... Bev Harris said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:11 am PT...





Great story, Brad. About Iowa - We will have a more formal report on Iowa, but here's what happened: The Democratic Party pulled a last-minute manuever which made it almost impossible to rig the thing without getting caught. They put a new, open source-driven program out from which anyone in America could capture time-slices of every precinct in Iowa every 30 seconds. On the web site, this wasn't obvious, but John Howard posted a quiet little link on the Black Box Voting forums, which was apparently deducible by those with good technical skills, and simply by clicking this link every 30 seconds you got a statewide data dump of every precinct in Iowa. And maybe it's better than posting poll tapes and comparing with the result, because you can do the input vs output check from a telephone anywhere in the world. Here's how: Jerry Depew, a resident of Iowa, simply arranged for a friend to TELEPHONE him at the precinct. He reported to his friend the result he saw right in front of him and, while he was still on the phone, his friend confirmed that the results at the precinct matched those published by the Iowa Democratic Party on the Internet. As I say, darn hard to rig that because they counted in public and had those incredibly detailed time slices downloadable in real time by anyone in the world. (The Iowa Republican caucus was another matter altogether. They finally got around to posting their results yesterday, and the thing was as opaque as mud.) New Hampshire, for the Democrats, was the exact opposite of Iowa. They used one of the worst voting systems in America and then handed programming of every memory card in New Hampshire over to a private outfit run by John Silvestro. First order of business needs to be examining the published precinct results and comparing the hand count locations to the optical scam locations. The results web site does not make this easy. You have to hover your mouse over each one of about 250 municipalities and then take a screen grab and then type it into a spreadsheet. So far, no one I know has completed that task. Here is the site with the municipality results:

http://www.politico.com/...imaries/nhmap-popup.html Here is a comma delimited data file I created with the municipalities and whether they are hand counted or opscam:

http://www.bbvdocs.org/N...-08-votingsystems-NH.txt I took the information from the NH Sec State site. A few of the locations do not have the voting system specified; if they have a low population, they are probably hand count. Whoever gets the handcount vs opscam spreadsheet done gets two points. The tools are in the two links above.

COMMENT #45 [Permalink]

... BeeSting said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:14 am PT...





The hand count vs the machine count is here... http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS

COMMENT #46 [Permalink]

... Bev Harris said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:23 am PT...





Hey, Beesting, just got it and rushed over to post it --- you beat me to it. Now, need to take a closer look.

COMMENT #47 [Permalink]

... Brad Friedman said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:23 am PT...





Jon #19 said - Brad, here's the issue with the "chicanery" idea, as I see it: this was a primary, not an all-or-nothing election. Even if it had gone according to the polls, the outcome would've shifted maybe one delegate. The Clintons may be political cut-throats, but stealing this one is about like a driver burning his secret rocket engines to beat traffic on the way to the track. As Brokaw said tonight, the obituaries for the Clinton's were already being written. Going from memory here, but he said one paper was headlined "OVER?" andother "END OF THE CLINTON ERA", etc. Had they lost big tonight, the media (and naturally, the public along with them) would have written them off. Probably. That said, none of that means that if there was chicanery here, that the Clinton campaign would necessarily have known anything about it, or even have been the ones behind it. I say if, of course, because at this hour, there is no actual evidence of any foul play. But certainly a lot of questions. Given that Diebold and LHS Associates ran the election on hackable systems which use secret software, that only they have control over, there is certainly reason to be concerned. There are paper ballots here. What say someone actually count them and put these concerns to rest?

COMMENT #48 [Permalink]

... Rosa said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:26 am PT...





And Brad, how is this little nugget of information from today's NYT to be explained away? One line of attack that Mrs. Clinton has used on Mr. Obama did not appear to work here: that she was more electable in a general election. The survey of voters leaving the polls found that 46 percent of respondents named Mr. Obama as the candidate most likely to defeat a Republican in November; 36 percent said that of Mrs. Clinton. So basically, voters agreed, by a wide margin of 10%, that Obama is their best chance in November, and yet they voted for Clinton anyway.

COMMENT #49 [Permalink]

... DES said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:58 am PT...





An interesting and informative interactive graphic over at NYT with a map of the NH counties, based on actual voting totals and not exit polls.

COMMENT #50 [Permalink]

... Doug said on 1/9/2008 @ 1:09 am PT...





Yes Rosa, the same thing happened in Iowa: most voters there considered Edwards the most electable - yet they voted with their hearts, for Obama. Also - yes, the Iowa Demo Caucus is a public head count, no voting machines involved, therefore nearly impossible to rig. Yes, the Clinton campaign's own internal polling showed them losing, but the exit polls show an unexpectedly huge turnout of women, with them breaking for Hillary much more than in Iowa, where women favored Obama 35-30. That really could be enough to be the difference, guys, I hate to break it to you. Think about it: how many upsets have there been in New Hampshire over the years? A LOT. People there aren't always forthright with the pollsters...and they change their minds a lot, late. Pat Buchanan? John McCain? Eugene McCarthy surprisingly close in 1968? It's been happening for decades in that state. I hate to rear the race issue, but it could have been a factor of a few points in New Hampshire, something to keep an eye on in the upcoming primary states (shouldn't be an issue in the Nevada caucus). I work for CBS, and I've looked at the exit polling data, and I don't see anything that makes me suspicious. I'm sympathetic to conspiracy theories, and I know the GOP really wants to face Hillary, not Obama, but sometimes we take the paranoia a little too far....check out my website www.sovernnation.com if you want some raw info and a little bit of fun...

COMMENT #51 [Permalink]

... LB said on 1/9/2008 @ 1:59 am PT...





Here is the full data and the differences between the hand count and machine count votes. Notice almost all candidate lost votes on the machines and Hillary and Romney got massive boosts... http://ronrox.com/paulst...ts.php?party=REPUBLICANS

http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS

COMMENT #52 [Permalink]

... leftisbest said on 1/9/2008 @ 2:00 am PT...





So Obama won by 38.7% to 34.8% for Clinton (~4% spread) when counting only the hand-counted votes – those that can actually be verified. The spread is actually about a 7% shift if you take the % of votes Clinton picked up in the machine counts (+4.9%) and the % of votes taken away from Obama (-2.3%). Maybe there could be a recount of all the ballots that were put thru the scanners. Wouldn’t it be a hoot if that was done and Obama actually won! Problem is, who would call for such a recount? Certainly if Obama did, it would look like sour grapes and why would Clinton ask? Very strange that when corruptible machines are involved, Obama looses but without the machines counting, he wins. A lot more analysis needs to be done, but something smells pretty bad here.

COMMENT #53 [Permalink]

... Craig said on 1/9/2008 @ 3:39 am PT...





Very interesting stuff. I have to say you're way off base, though, in saying that Daily Kos is a Clinton website. She polls at about 8% on their straw polls. Edwards is actually the favorite there, with Obama second.

COMMENT #54 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 4:15 am PT...





The "Hillary crying" story right before the election should've tipped us off...now the CMSM will have stories all day, "Did Hillary's crying get the woman's vote?" instead of "How can double-digit poll leads disappear in 24 hours?"? So idiots can chew on the "Hillary crying" story instead. When I saw the "Hillary crying" story, I knew our "goose was cooked"! signed: Cynical Dan

COMMENT #55 [Permalink]

... tounces said on 1/9/2008 @ 4:15 am PT...





If you squeeze my lizard, I'll put my snake on you. I'm an animal lover and I'm a reptile too.

COMMENT #56 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 4:19 am PT...





I'm playing devil's advocate here, but if the "Hillary crying" story didn't come out right before the election, the CMSM would be forced to examine a quite different story: "How did the poll lead vanish"? But, we'll see today on ANBCBSNNX, if they say, "Did Hillary crying bring out the women's vote?". Well, we'll see today, won't we?

COMMENT #57 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 4:20 am PT...





The story for the scam? Put out ahead of time? Call me paranoid, but..........how come McCain's poll said he'd win, and he won?

COMMENT #58 [Permalink]

... wow said on 1/9/2008 @ 4:26 am PT...





yeah I think it makes sense to just accept the numbers since some corporate controlled exit polls say the same thing as the corporate controlled voter machines. Because in the past 6 years, the people controlling the machines have realized they must also control the exit polls (duh). Even the hand counts (after the election) have issues due to unsecured methods of transport and storage. It is becoming more and more obvious to the Citizens of this country that the machines themselves give a negative return on investment. I mean a real negative return. Kind of like using a depleated uranium drill bit for building a new swing set. But the most interesting thing of the entire fraud is the hunreds of apologists floating around all the blogs. I mod a few blogs and caught 30 of them just in the past 12 hours. It was wild, they really pulled out all the stops. Whispering nonsensical talking points like... "well people in New Hampshire are stupid." "people must have felt that Hillary was finally genuine" "it goes to show you the polls do not mean anything" "well America wants stability more than change, and New Hampshire always votes for the establishment" "maybe a few random acts of fraud happened, but no one can rig so many machines at once" Anyway, I have seen them here too. After visiting this site for 2 years, I feel 1,000x more confident in Bev and Brad then the obvious apologists for an ever degrading system of non-democratically elected appointees.

COMMENT #59 [Permalink]

... Dredd said on 1/9/2008 @ 4:31 am PT...





We had a discussion a day or so ago on the O-mentum thread, where I said:

The jist of my position is that when we don't know something we should not talk as if we do know that something. Wafting in and out of presumption upon presumption to discuss the merits of candidates, their base, and extrapolating that to election results is confusion posing as coherent dialogue. If we don't know which elections were rigged sufficiently to throw them and therefore render them false, then we have no basis for a philosophical discussion of the merits of candidates in terms of why they won or lost! Which means Amurkan politics is nothing more than a nightmare posing as a wonderful American dream. (Dredd Sedd, emphasis added). See also in same thread.

COMMENT #60 [Permalink]

... Dredd said on 1/9/2008 @ 4:41 am PT...





Brad #13 You said:

Polls are your only independent source to determine whether election results are accurate. Historically, that certainly tends to be true for exit polls, but not for MSM, partisan, or party polls which tend to vary depending on the circumstances. see post #59 too

COMMENT #61 [Permalink]

... Floridiot said on 1/9/2008 @ 4:47 am PT...





Why is that Mr. See BS #50, that when the ballotts were hand counted, they all fell within the polling margin but when the Opscams counted the ballots it was outside the polling margin...hmmm?

COMMENT #62 [Permalink]

... Soul Rebel said on 1/9/2008 @ 4:51 am PT...





possible explanation - the effect of message during the debates affecting immediate polling. Hillary targets economy and recession, this resonates with voters in NH.

http://wsws.org/articles...n2008/newh-j09_prn.shtml

COMMENT #63 [Permalink]

... epppie said on 1/9/2008 @ 5:33 am PT...





I'm bothered by the Edwards result too. Everything I read indicated that enthusiasm and numbers were high at his events. How did he seemingly fail to get any bounce at all out of Iowa? Remember, the Corporate Media and the Corporate Establishment have a lot of reason to fear him and cutting a few points here or there could keep his growing momentum under the radar.

COMMENT #64 [Permalink]

... Floridiot said on 1/9/2008 @ 5:39 am PT...





All I am saying is I do not want some fat ass with a laptop sitting in his La-Z-Boy jiggering with election results, I want his fat ass out there stuffing every ballot box that he can waddle over to, then it works for me

COMMENT #65 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 5:48 am PT...





Well, I heard on the radio, "Do you think Hillary's crying, showed that she was real?" NOT..."How could the polls say Obama had a 15% lead?"

COMMENT #66 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 5:50 am PT...





Zogby's predicted numbers: Obama 42%, Hillary 29%. So, we're supposed to throw polls out the window, then, right? Then Zogby should be questioned! This isn't even close!

COMMENT #67 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 5:51 am PT...





So, WHO did Zogby poll? New Hampshire voters?

COMMENT #68 [Permalink]

... Colin said on 1/9/2008 @ 5:57 am PT...





I wonder if they use the same kind of systems in South Carolina? Or is New Hampshire one of the last states to primarily utilize diebold equipment?

COMMENT #69 [Permalink]

... Floridiot said on 1/9/2008 @ 5:58 am PT...





LOL Big Dan, Maybe they were calling the wrong State

COMMENT #70 [Permalink]

... L.A. Steel said on 1/9/2008 @ 6:03 am PT...





Great job Brad! Nothing about the Hillary upset

makes sense; unless you consider the economic fall out if she had lost. Hillary backers would

dry up, billion dollar national radio and tv campaign money would be cut in half, voter apathy would become overwhelming,mainstream media coverage of the elections and primaries would hit bottom on the Nielson ratings,and George W.'s

massive incompetence would be front page news again. If there is a prosecutorial need for strong motives for rigging the N.H.Primary in favor of Hillary, any and all of the above would be prime motives, to serve an indictment against the entire election process.

Keep up the good work. L.A.Steel

COMMENT #71 [Permalink]

... molly said on 1/9/2008 @ 6:11 am PT...





After the '04 election Ralph Nader wanted N.H. investigated. The phone jamming came out, but I wonder if there was something else? I would think it would be harder to steal in a state with small towns and communities than metropolitan areas. John Edwards won in the race for Senate in N.C. by taping his opponent (who was ahead in the polls) saying "No matter what you say on TV the people of N.C. will believe it." Then he ran that clip on TV. This story is far from over because Edwards is brilliant and it has happened to him before.I'm sure Oprah is highly pissed too.

COMMENT #72 [Permalink]

... Julie said on 1/9/2008 @ 6:24 am PT...





An exmination of all the hand-count votes v. the machine votes will tell the tale. I certainly don't think any fraud at all came from Hillary or Bill Clinton. On that score, I absolutely respect their integrity. I think they felt genuinely hurt, dismayed, upset, scared, even a bit passe, when Obama showed a double-digit lead going into the vote. I believe they were bracing themselves, preparing themselves for a battering and strategizing on which upcoming primaries would give her the best chance at succeeding and, at least, restore a bit of saving grace. As far as any vote manipulation goes, I believe they'd feel aghast at the thought of fraud and never would condone any chicanery whatsoever. Be repelled by it. Anyone at all could have rigged the vote. It's even Rovian. Have Hillary win so they can pummel her later when she's the candidate. (Because in a head-to-head I think Edwards, even Richardson are electable over the GOP candidate in '08. Even Obama because of his charisma, because charisma and hope seem to be enough to satisfy the majority of people and he was ridng a wave.) My best guess is that GOP operatives wanted to put the kibosh on the tidal wave Obama was riding because it would change the whole consequent equation. And, it has.

COMMENT #73 [Permalink]

... Nunyabiz said on 1/9/2008 @ 6:38 am PT...





DKos is a bizarro world version of some Reich wing trash site like Free Republic.

Everyone that post there is forced to adhere to whatever that nut bag Markos believes or they are immediately banned and deleted.

Goebbels would be proud. This NH primary looks very fishy to me and I think it is just a taste of what is to come.

The MSM is busy spinning how exit polls or any polls for that matter are totally unreliable and worthless which is obviously BS.

Exit polls prior to these treasonous war criminals stealing elections were traditionally extremely accurate usually well within +-1%. If the Reich wing nutbaggery machine wants Clinton to win so that the S-election would be closer in order to make it easier to steal then Clinton is the nominee.

Honestly though it really makes little to no difference whom steals what anymore as they are ALL crooked & corrupt plus the Congress is utterly worthless and clearly in the pocket of that top 2% so not a damn thing is ever going to change until we change EVERYTHING.

Until we the people can collectively OUST every single last politician from BOTH parties in Congress and replace at least 1/3 of them with Green Party candidates and the rest with anybody but the incumbent then we have zero chance of changing the tide of fascist corruption in this country.

COMMENT #74 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 6:53 am PT...





I was saying, the 2004 Dean-Kerry primary was fishy! Back then, no one was talking about hacking primaries, only the general elections. Then there was the McKinney/"Hackin" Hank Johnson primary with unbelievable fishy results. The Schmidt/Hackett election. But this one...> 13% swing? Come on! No one's explaining it! At least, explain it! All we're getting is, "Hillary won".

COMMENT #75 [Permalink]

... Karen Young said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:01 am PT...





Were the exit polls done by the networks

lying too? Be a good loser.

COMMENT #76 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:06 am PT...





Zogby should get a new job then, shouldn't he?

COMMENT #77 [Permalink]

... Neal said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:13 am PT...





Of course the MSM aren't even entertaining the idea that the machines could have been tampered with - as if the idea that anyone would alter the results of an election for any reason is just beyond the pale. I don't know if they just assume that because this is America, the city on the hill, that kind of thing just *can't* happen here, or what. The fourth estate continues to leave a hell of a lot to be desired...

COMMENT #78 [Permalink]

... Neal said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:17 am PT...





Obama *should* demand a hand count. But evidently he's just another clueless Dem. that fully accepts "faith based" voting...His loss (and more importantly the country's loss!!!) come November...

COMMENT #79 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:25 am PT...





Check THIS out: "Tom Brokaw, somewhat of an elder statesmen of television news, may have said it best on MSNBC around 11 p.m. As Mr. Olbermann’s co-anchor Chris Matthews commented on faulty New Hampshire polls, Mr. Brokaw pointed to a larger fault shared by media organizations, suggesting that journalists should “temper that temptation to constantly try to get ahead of what the voters are deciding:” " http://tvdecoder.blogs.n...ovel-idea-for-the-media/ IE: Fraud is NOT going to EVER be discussed! Everything under the sun will be discussed, except fraud! "Faulty polls"...I guess Zogby has some 'splainin' ta do???

COMMENT #80 [Permalink]

... Floridiot said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:38 am PT...





She got the "Bush Bounce"

What makes it even worse is we have a name for it

COMMENT #81 [Permalink]

... LionelEHutz said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:42 am PT...





"Daily Kos, of course, is a Clinton-centric website," Daily Kos is hardly a Clinton centric website. Do you even read that blog?

COMMENT #82 [Permalink]

... Awklib said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:42 am PT...





Sorry to burst your bubble, but according to the exit polling posted on CNN, the results were almost EXACTLY the same as the exit polls. http://www.cnn.com/ELECT.../epolls/index.html#NHDEM Extrapolating from the Male/Female exit polling you get the following: HRC Male 43 * .29 = 12.47

HRC Female 57 * .46 = 26.22

HRC Total 38.69 BHO Male 43 * .40 = 17.2

BHO Female 57 * .34 = 19.38

BHO Total 36.58 The actuals were HRC 39% and BHO 37%. So the exit polls and the actuals match up. [The Exit Poll data you point to, has already been adjusted to match election results. You DO know that that's what they do, with exit data, right? Unless you have some information suggesting those numbers are the RAW numbers? --- BF]

COMMENT #83 [Permalink]

... Floridiot said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:52 am PT...





Jesus H fucking Christ, did you look at the exit polls after the election was over, or before ?

They are constantly adjusting them to match the "real" vote totals

COMMENT #84 [Permalink]

... uneesta said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:57 am PT...



COMMENT #85 [Permalink]

... GWN said on 1/9/2008 @ 7:57 am PT...





I really don't think Hillary's crocodile tears would convince more women to vote for her. Women recognize when women are being manuipulitive better than men do I noticed on the hand-counted versus machine counted, that even Edwards got a higher percentage... This stinks to high heaven IMO. Where's Rove these days?

COMMENT #86 [Permalink]

... Donna said on 1/9/2008 @ 8:08 am PT...





Brad, Thank you ! Did you know the ballots in NH had Clinton at the top, Obama at, or close to the bottom ? C-span host mentioned this fact to a guest from the Union Leader. Peter (the host) said "a candidate can get a 3% loss from location" So Brad, who did the ballots...Diebold I suspect. Add in the Diebold op-scan and Clinton wins ! She gets the R's fired up to vote in Nov. and polls are now really a joke. A twofer !

COMMENT #87 [Permalink]

... Floridiot said on 1/9/2008 @ 8:10 am PT...





No, the important point is that Mark Penn's old(?) outfit is known for producing off-kilter polls around the globe, one for sure was Venezuela during the recall election.

COMMENT #88 [Permalink]

... Bob In Pacifica said on 1/9/2008 @ 8:33 am PT...





Go here:

http://southofheaven.typ...008/01/now-and-then.html to read my suspicions about some of the narrative being laid down prior to the election. The Steinem op-ed in the New York Times, the "Iron My Shirt" incident, the crying, the rude question at the debate, etc. All of these "incidents" laid down the basis for a narrative of a female backlash in support of Clinton, even if the preelection polling numbers didn't justify that any backlash had occurred. I suggest that while no real backlash probably occurred at the polls, the basis of a divisive gender and race-based campaign is being laid. Qui bono? Not any Democratic candidate.

COMMENT #89 [Permalink]

... Bob Fleischer said on 1/9/2008 @ 8:40 am PT...





I love the fact that the machine count is SO wrong. It's the reason why, in America, ANYONE can become president!

COMMENT #90 [Permalink]

... Cosmonaut said on 1/9/2008 @ 8:44 am PT...





Any time - and it rarely happens - that exit polling is different from election results - to the point it changes the outcome - questions need to be raised. Exit polling is extremely accurate. Do people really believe Hillary's tearful moment on Monday was worth as many as 15 points? What about Chris Matthews' eerily prescient statement on MSNBC Tuesday morning about the establishment striking back? Or Bill Clinton telling Hillary donors that primary would be a lot closer than they think? It stinks.

COMMENT #91 [Permalink]

... Linda said on 1/9/2008 @ 8:44 am PT...





Julie at #72 may have hit the nail on the head with: "My best guess is that GOP operatives wanted to put the kibosh on the tidal wave Obama was riding because it would change the whole consequent equation. And, it has."

COMMENT #92 [Permalink]

... Robin Gibson said on 1/9/2008 @ 8:47 am PT...





I was on the phone with Brazil last night, both of us had been watching the news. The story ran in Brazil that Obama won by a 17% margin in New Hampshire at the same time that Hillary was declared the winner here. There was no way to reconcile the two news stories. This was around 10:30Pm eastern time last night.

COMMENT #93 [Permalink]

... mlk said on 1/9/2008 @ 8:50 am PT...





Stealing this primary WAS important. Big money was set to move to Obama if he had won in a landslide last night. There would have been defections. This was absolutely crucial to the Clinton campaign.

COMMENT #94 [Permalink]

... Bob said on 1/9/2008 @ 8:55 am PT...





Brad: First, I've you lived in a place where you've been asked your opinion about ten million times, you might want to keep at least a little something for the privacy of the polling place. Second, the polls are a lagging indicator. One does not really know what happens in the last 24 hours in a race such as this. The dynamic where there are real, and good, choices are unpollable. Third, the NH Secretary of State is about as impartial a public official as there is in the country...and you would need an inside job to affect the vote that dramatically. The AccuVote system is a pain in the ass, but there is no likelihood that the change in voting patterns were due to hacking...just good, smart politics. Fourth, do not underestimate the "Bradley effect." In Iowa, there is no secret ballot. One has to stand up for a candidate. In NH, behind the "curtain," one could do what they wanted. It seems to me that maybe some Dems still don't believe an African-American candidate, right now, can get the prize they desperately seek...1600.

COMMENT #95 [Permalink]

... USRigged said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:06 am PT...





Of course the vote was rigged. Go check out the website of LHS Associates, the company that counts 81% of the votes. OMG, what a joke. It looks like someone threw the site up overnight.

Half the links don't work. And this is the company New Hampshire residents trust with their

votes? What a bunch of dupes.

COMMENT #96 [Permalink]

... BOB YOUNG said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:12 am PT...





#82 They match because they matched them. It is just that simple to fool some of the people. They matched them in Ohio in 2004 too but to match up the final "corrected" exit pole had to require that over 52 million of the voters who voted for Bush in 2000 returned to vote again in 2004. That is a bit hard to believe because no more than 48 and a fraction million of the 50 million who voted for Bush in 2000 would still be alive in 2004. That is why I titled my analysis of the 2004 election linked here http://customer.wcta.net/roberty/return.htm "The Return of the Silent Majority". According to the CNN "corrected" exit poll Bush won in 2004 based on the HUGE turnout of Bush supporters who very clearly had to leave the graveyards to get to the polls to cast their votes in 2004. Sometimes things that “match up” are not exactly believable!

COMMENT #97 [Permalink]

... Robert said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:14 am PT...





I'll tell you why Obama didn't make a big stink. The same reason Kerry didn't make a big stink when he "lost". He gets marching orders just like the rest(with the exception of Ron Paul and maybe Kucinich) "Keep your mouth shut and there will be a bone for you later"

COMMENT #98 [Permalink]

... Joanne Rile said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:16 am PT...





It is still very hard for Americans to believe a woman can lead. The polls are a sham. Remember Harry Truman's win against Dewey? Check your history. This is nothing new. The news media is bowing down to the stirring speech making of Obama and totally dismissed Senator Clinton who has been "less inspiring". I would vote for any democrate this time but don't be fooled. Obama has the wealthest woman in the U.S. backing him and she even arranged a rally for him in Iowa. Good for him. To win you need money. They both have the money. I would like to see a woman finally get a chance to be president. But I would vote happily for Obama, Clinton, Edwards, etc.

Nothing would make the republicans happier than to divide the country again. Let's not do that folks.

COMMENT #99 [Permalink]

... The Sea Dreamer said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:19 am PT...





Very good all round, Bradblog. I admire your commitment. "If I was Barack Obama, I'd certainly not have conceded this election this quickly. I'm not quite sure what he was thinking. And as far as offering an indication of whether he understands how these systems work, and the necessity of making sure that votes are counted, and counted accurately, it does not offer a great deal of confidence at this hour." Yes, he understands how THE system works. Don't rock the vote-counting boat, don't let the proles wake to the fact it's all a shamocratic process, and who is to be President is not to be decided by the people, voting. Not in the least. Not at all. These are the approved candidates. You vote. We decide. Sound familiar?

COMMENT #100 [Permalink]

... Nick in Virginia said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:23 am PT...





Since the poll numbers for all the other candidates were spot-on, I would expect the discrepancy in the Obama-Clinton contest to be most likely the result of latent racism on the part of white voters, who wanted to appear "progressive" and billed themselves as Obama voters, but got into the privacy of the voting both and marked the column of the white woman.

COMMENT #101 [Permalink]

... Jim H said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:25 am PT...





Can we get some raw data for exit polling or links to any comments by Zogby or others? I don't trust the system until we have a random 20% or so recount of all machine precincts. Everybody else loses votes and Hillary gains on the machines only! I don't buy what the MSM is selling me as their latest reason/excuse for the Hillary "surge".

COMMENT #102 [Permalink]

... carrie sheridan said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:26 am PT...





thanks brad - i've watched C-Span programs about voting machines and diebold since after the 2000 debacle in florida...yup... i want each obama voter to mail in an "I Voted For Obama/ Count My Vote" envelope to a PO Box on voting nights to have a verifiable Paper Copy... to make these machines irrelevant... we WERE mystified - the hillary campaign was READY on friday morning to do their best in 5 days and they did - no question about it... and i think we were so sure that a double-digit obama was assured that some people may have voted for mccain to help him out, with a nod to his effort here in 2000 when bradley enthusiasts voted for him independently - but there should be NO diebold machines AnyWhere - and this puts the country on notice that we have 10 months to Fix This... a problem C-Span has shined light on for 7 years...

COMMENT #103 [Permalink]

... Matt said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:26 am PT...





Compare NH Primary 1988 and 2008

"...The actual computer voting machines were introduced on a grand scale in New Hampshire’s 1988 primary. The results were predictable – former CIA director George H. W. Bush won a huge upset over Dole, ..." "...George H.W. Bush was trailing Dole by eight points in the last Gallup poll before the New Hampshire primary. Bush won by nine points..." The complete passage: (p7-8)

"...Thus, even prior to the touchscreen computer voting machines, there was a tradition of suspected election rigging with computer software and central tabulators. The actual computer voting machines were introduced on a grand scale in New Hampshire’s 1988 primary. The results were predictable – former CIA director George H. W. Bush won a huge upset over Dole, but the mainstream for-profit corporate media refused to consider election rigging. Here’s the Washington Post’s account of the bizarre and unexplainable election results when touchscreens were first used: In 1988,George H.W. Bush was trailing Dole by eight points in the last Gallup poll before the New Hampshire primary. Bush won by nine points. The Washington Post covered the Bush upset with the following headline: 'Voters Were a Step Ahead of Tracking Measurements.'..." The complete article: Kudzu Effect http://freepress.org/ima...artments/KudzuEffect.pdf Consider also the missing votes for Ron Paul ( http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/ )

No wonder the Press and Politicians love the New Hampshire Primary! (no offense to the people who live there) (from http://www.democracyforn...shire.com/node/view/5308 linked from http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0801/S00057.htm )

COMMENT #104 [Permalink]

... Jim H said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:27 am PT...





Since the poll numbers for all the other candidates were spot-on, I would expect the discrepancy in the Obama-Clinton contest to be most likely the result of latent racism on the part of white voters, who wanted to appear "progressive" and billed themselves as Obama voters, but got into the privacy of the voting both and marked the column of the white woman. If that's the case, why didn't any of the white men get a boost?

COMMENT #105 [Permalink]

... Tired of the Noise said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:31 am PT...





When will the obvious answer be recognized??? Counting needs to be done not only in public, but recorded on video. Banks do it, casinos do it. For paper ballots, just use cameras mounted over the table and every vote is visable. This can be broadcast live so anyone interested can observe the count. This allows anyone to do an unofficial recount in a speedy and cost efficient manner. Cameras should also record all activety in the polling place and counting rooms. Electronic results can still be hacked, but video will help make switching cards more difficult, and will help spot suspicious activity in the area of the machines. A return to paper ballots, video security in the polling place,and the use of live video feeds and recorded counts will eliminate the majority of opportunities for counts to be altered or manipulated at local polling places. "They" will claim it would be too expensive, but I'd rather my tax money be spent this way than on unsecure voting computers that don't allow every vote to be accounted for!!

COMMENT #106 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:33 am PT...





"exit polling posted on CNN" Did you see how they "adjusted" their "exit polls" to match the 2004 Kerry-Bush election? We're talking about the RELIABLE Zogby poll! Not CNN!

COMMENT #107 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:34 am PT...





I don't buy ANYTHING that begins with, "According to CNN........."

COMMENT #108 [Permalink]

... Jim H said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:37 am PT...





If this chart is close to accurate: http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS Then this: I think we were so sure that a double-digit obama was assured that some people may have voted for McCain to help him out, with a nod to his effort here in 2000 when Bradley enthusiasts voted for him independently - - is nothing more than guesswork to rationalize something that doesn't add up. The vote totals didn't show independents flocking to the Republican primary. They did show them voting for Obama. And BTW he's not my guy.

COMMENT #109 [Permalink]

... Marky said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:39 am PT...





I work in Concord,NH and just visited SoS office. They are working very hard to finalize vote totals, and will post them on their websit this afternoon. I also got a printout of the towns that used Hand Counted Paper Ballots.

FYI, the "Unknowns" in the C:\Documents and Settings\mschauer\Desktop\2008 New Hampshire State Primary Results - A Closer Look At The Count.htm site are virtually all machine counted. Wentworth and Hart are HCPB, but they were only given 20 ballots each.

You need to keep in mind that the HCPB are used in the smaller towns, the max printed for a town was 2420 for Plymouth. Larger towns all use machines. This could easily explain the discrepancy between HCPB and Machine.

BTW, the only machine counter used was Diebold Accuvote.

Note on the Exit Polls: The MSNBC poll separated votes by 76 catagories! I was not polled, but if faced with that long a poll I would have refused, especially given the way we have been barraged in the last week. This weekend we averaged about 3 calls per hour. It has gotten very tiresome.

COMMENT #110 [Permalink]

... MarkH said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:40 am PT...





... epppie said on 1/9/2008 @ 5:33 am PT...

"I'm bothered by the Edwards result too. Everything I read indicated that enthusiasm and numbers were high at his events. How did he seemingly fail to get any bounce at all out of Iowa?"

---------------

It looks like the pre-election polls and election results were goofy for both Iowa and NH. In both cases another candidate was pushed up to make Edwards appear much lower. In Iowa Obama got about a 7pt boost and Edwards appeared to be clearly tied with Clinton. In NH Clinton got about a 9pt boost and Edwards was way way down, despite having a recent increase in national polling of about 9pts. I'd say they don't favor Obama or Clinton so much as they really really don't like Edwards. However, if Edwards has the money to continue then it will be harder for them to boost South Carolina. It went for Edwards by 15% in 2004 and now neither Obama nor Clinton can claim sole ownership of the lead. Two other things: first, the early states have so much emotion behind them that there's always going to be a boost to one's support if you win early. Obama's boost is now burst and Clinton has the appearance of some momentum; second, once you get past the early states where cheating is more likely, then it might become more fair for everyone except that a candidate with less money is very unfairly hindered. What kind of election system do they use in SC? Will Edwards receive a 'favorite son' advantage as Obama had in Illinois and Clinton got in NH? Will it be fair? Time will tell. But, the race is definitely still on!

COMMENT #111 [Permalink]

... Brett Forman said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:42 am PT...





Democratic Underground also purged comments of those who questioned the 2004 results and Kerry's acquiescence. Dogmatism, on left or right, is death.

COMMENT #112 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:44 am PT...





Remember that stat-meister "truth is all"? Where is he when you need him? http://www.electiondefen...polls_vs_vote_count_2006

COMMENT #113 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:47 am PT...





2006 Exit Poll Data Screenshot Captures

Once again, as in 2004, the national media and Edison-Mitofsky have colluded in election deception. http://www.electiondefen...g/2006_EP_Screencaptures

COMMENT #114 [Permalink]

... Todd said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:52 am PT...





Just reported from Bev at blackboxvoting that Sutton NH which posted 0 (ZERO) Votes for Ron Paul Made a mistake.. He actually recieved 31 votes. It was a human error.( Yeah Right.) you only have 12 names on a list and

COMMENT #115 [Permalink]

... John said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:52 am PT...





Julie in comment #72 said, "It's even Rovian." Sure raises a specter.

The 'dirty trick' structure that Rove so patiently put together no doubt still exists and there must be plenty of ambitious Rove protege wannabes more then willing to set Clinton up and later reveal the chicanery at an opportune time to embarrass Clinton and make her look guilty and ruining the chances of the Democrats. It certainly fits within the past history of Rovian intrigue. Just speculation but it does fit a pattern of past behavior.

COMMENT #116 [Permalink]

... Lois G. said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:53 am PT...





I got here from a dailykos link. Great reading and good luck with the spreadsheets; I'll check back. Two points from barely computer-capable me:

1. Wish we had a decent women's group that would stand up and say something because the commentary is making women look like idiots or racists, women my age: 40 and up.

2. The system seems to be practically an honor system. This in a state where people went to prison for jamming phones to sway an election. Unless a candidate takes on the onus of demanding a hand count, the result is whatever this LHS company says it is. There are so many interested parties who might very well put out money to sway the results.

COMMENT #117 [Permalink]

... sheridan ely said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:53 am PT...





In states that use the scanners to count/tally votes, be sure to have poll watchers who can watch every move of the pollsters and workers, including verifying the operation of the machines. Also, call for a manual count of all votes cast for Democrats within the time required by law.

COMMENT #118 [Permalink]

... John Smart said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:55 am PT...





Here is what waves do - they come in, they crest, they break on the shore and recede. obama roared out of iowa and his numbers fell back just as quickly. why would anyone think those numbers on sunday were solid? no one is questioning obama's stunning surge in the polls last sunday. but now we question the equally sudden reversal?

people thought better of it. women broke hard for clinton. get over it.

COMMENT #119 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 9:55 am PT...





Also, there's raw exit polls and "adjusted" exit polls. The question is: Why is the Zogby poll 16% off the "final count", just for Hillary & Obama? I'm sure Zogby can explain this? And if he feels his poll is accurate? Has anyone asked Zogby? That's his living to do this!

COMMENT #120 [Permalink]

... TWT said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:02 am PT...





Are you all delusional? I mean to fail to recognize what our electoral process truely is...a lie...a sham, designed to dupe the masses. Poor fools..."I want my voice to be heard", stated a female voter in New Hampshire...poor woman ...pitiful...I feel like crying. The reality is that Clinton has already been annointed by the high priests of the shadowy ruling elite.

COMMENT #121 [Permalink]

... Todd said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:03 am PT...





my last post cut out half way through.. (sorry) to Conclude. Obama needs to demand a recount by hand. How come in over a hundred years only when electronic machines are involved are these polls so statistically wrong?? If they are so wrong all the time why do people pay for them?? Will there be rebates to the people who paid for the Zogby polls? The polls weren't wrong. Obama Demand a recount!!

COMMENT #122 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:03 am PT...





So, for those of you above "explaining" the discrepancy: 1. When the polls match the count, that's "OK" 2. When the polls DON'T match the count, that's "OK", too! EVERYTHING'S "OK"! NO MATTER WHAT THE RESULTS!

COMMENT #123 [Permalink]

... Wendy said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:05 am PT...





Listen you guys. You have to be very clear when you give this (faulty) data to the Obama campaign. I KNOW this was rigged because I know NH was rigged against Dean by others who like you can read between the lines. At first I did think it was the Clintons'. But you've convinced me it was the repubs. No matter: I am not only in favor of Obama but of fair voting results. I think NH has a history, can anyone look into this? re: Dean's loss in 04. Two friends of mine were there for a month and along with Joe Trippi they KNEW the numbers ahead of time and the numbers reported were discrepant. This time it's even worse because of all you note, how the interests that be want to run against Hillary. I BEG you who are no doubt much younger and much better with numbers than I am to get this out or into NH. This is only the beginning but in another way it's the end if the truth doesn't out. We MUST make this point to those in charge in NH, first and foremost, and then: Let Obama know what you find out, not that he doesn't already know dirt was done, somehow. If you nail that somehow into HOW, you are the real heros here. Yeah, forget MSM, go to NH and dig. Collect money from the rest of us, set up a fund. Let's not be lambs to the slaughter once again. Please follow the ballots and get into those diebold machines. I would give money to any fund that would show they have done this. Go, and fast. Wendy

COMMENT #124 [Permalink]

... Iowa Precinct Caucus Chair said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:13 am PT...





Iowa is much easier to explain in that people had to show up and caucus at a precise time and it took at least an hour or more. The pollsters have always had a hard time being precise w/ Iowa because of all the unknown factors. N.H. pre-election polls were spot on for everyone but Obama and Clinton. It makes no sense. The rest of the country can say what they want about Iowa, but it's hard to mess up the counts of warm bodies and at least it can't be hacked w/ a click of the mouse. For a successful hack to take place it would have to be done with as few people as possible. In N.H., with all the Diebold machines, that is VERY possible. For a hack to take place at the Iowa Caucus would take a huge conspiracy and a massive effort to skew the results right underneath the noses of everyone involved. I made sure a captain from each viable preference group was looking over my shoulder when I called in the results at my precinct. It was open, no monkey business. I can't say the same thing about N.H. I would really like to know ... for all those who raised red flags on Ohio '04, the long lines, the misinformation, the fact that it took the freakin' Green Party to contest the results ... I gotta know, why is the primary illogic in N.H. any different? It looks like monkey business is afoot. The numbers don't jive and it takes a real leap of faith to manufacture a reason as to why 24 hours made such a huge difference in N.H. for Clinton. Even she was planning for a loss. The papers' headlines were practically already written. Ah, but CNN wouldn't talk about their exit polls until after the polling sites were closed. Gee, I wonder if the '04 exit polls showing Kerry ahead at 4 p.m. EST had anything to do w/ that??? Can't let the exit polls differ from the hacked results from the Diebold machines can we? Gotta give some time for CNN to tweek the numbers so they explain the hacked results. To hell w/ their exit polls. They only say what they need them to say. I hope the legions of Obama supporters who know point blank that their candidate won in their precinct raise some questions and demand answers. This looks like it could have been really hardcore blatant. If so, it needs to be exposed, I don't care who the candidate is.

COMMENT #125 [Permalink]

... Badger said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:18 am PT...





Has it only been the last eight years that polls have been so wildly off? Did problems with polls begin in the eighties? Is there a correlation between the advent of increased computer counting and polls not matching outcomes? As for Obama asking for a recount in New Hampshire, his hands are tied because we haven’t yet gotten to the point where his opponents and the media won’t call that rotten apples. Oprah has the money to do it but the apple card is still viable. You’d need New Hampshire democrats to call for a recount and that probably won’t happen. Depending on New Hampshire laws, someone outside the system could ask for it but laws have a tendency to hamper recounts. Were the ballots kept safe or are there chain-of-custody issues? The bigger fly in the ointment is why a seasoned politician like Hillary would resort to the tears thing. That’s a huge strategic blunder down the road if she becomes the Democratic candidate. One potential page out of the playbook: Hillary is the Democratic candidate for President. She could face any of the GOP nominees but let’s say John McCain. Hillary will get drowned in those tears, especially by a candidate that survived being a POW. That’s a marketing dream come true for her opposition. Notice the Tonkin Gulf-like incident just as this primary was happening? I would not assume that the “have to be fearful” card isn’t played for other purposes than just to buoy the current administration. If Bush/Cheney get us into a war or the potential is escalated, gosh, the country just couldn’t have someone breaking into tears when the going gets tough. Why would voters support someone who couldn’t beat the GOP, according to other polls? That ought to be the kiss of death for Hillary, why isn’t it? Why would women vote for a woman who cries? Give me a break- that plays right into the hands of a “woman can’t be tough enough for the job of President.” I agree with Brad that it may not have anything to do with the Clinton campaign- except that IMHO, the tear thing plays right into the hands of the opposition down the road quite conveniently. Either Clinton knows that or she’s not as bright as people think. That bothers me and I hope we don’t see more polls going one way and results another because I’ve got a bad feeling about this. Shades of Kerry “coming out of nowhere”, running a lackluster campaign for President, and refusing to fight for an accurate vote count. That’s one replay I could do without. Why wait until a presidential election to subvert the people’s choice? Stack the deck now, it’s much safer. Clinton has played the inevitability card, experience card, 35 years of non-change but she calls it change card, and now the tears card. She's running out of cards and that last card played right into the opposition's hand.

COMMENT #126 [Permalink]

... Sarah Jane said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:24 am PT...





Obama got Gored! I knew that ALL 8 different polls could not be wrong ONLY for Democrats and right for Republicans. According to the hand count, the corect results are: Obama-39, Clinton-35. McCain-39, Romney-25. This calls for an immediate investigation. http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS This is why I only trust caucuses, where everything is done in the open. These corporation-owned voting machines are easily manipulated. http://www.legitgov.org/index.html#breaking_news

COMMENT #127 [Permalink]

... Yorick said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:25 am PT...





5% advantage for Clinton in the machine counts over the handcounts. In the handcount districts, Obama wins 39-35, much closer to some of the final polls that had him with a 5 pt spread. There's enough here to continue probing this, Bradblog. The fact that the discrepancy between handcounts and machine counts for Romney is more than 7 points is very suspicious.

COMMENT #128 [Permalink]

... RUss Dalripple said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:27 am PT...





reading this stuff makes me angry. Only an idot would assume that an election could be rigged easier thaN SOME POLL. I for one didnt believe that Obama, a no experience politician who only speaks in generalities, would have such an overwhelming edge over everyone else. It didnt make sense at all. So why Brad, who I use to respect, repeats these suppositiotins is beyond me. [Well, let's see, you're suggesting that votes tallied in secret by a private company (LHS) on machines that use secret source code to count votes on machines that are known to be easily hackable (Diebold) is somehow more reliable than dozens of different, independent pollsters, all of whom make their data completely transparent AND all of whom came up with virtually the same results independently? Ok. Let's talk bridge selling next time we chat. Have a few you may be interested in, Russ. --- BF]

COMMENT #129 [Permalink]

... Brian said on 1/9/2008 @ 10:54 am PT...





I've been looking at the exit poll data --- at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225995/, and the LA Times has the same data online, and probably many others besides. I've run the numbers based on the sex data (easiest to calculate due to their being only 2 sexes), and it all looks copacetic to me. Clinton, 38.69%; Obama, 36.58%. That tracks pretty damn close to the final result, within a single percent. I don't think there's any Diebold fraud here.

COMMENT #130 [Permalink]

... Savantster said on 1/9/2008 @ 11:00 am PT...





It's quite simple.. The SOS in NH, in order to give another road test to his -hackable machines-, should call for a 10% -hand verification- of the machine counts, at polling places -he- choses at random. Someone said he was "impartial", great! then prove it by making sure your screwy machines weren't miscalibrated or, worse, hacked. And, Brad, you should contact NPR and see if they want to have a -serious- discussion about these machines.. i.e. Joy Cardine here in Wisconsin had that guy from the Times? (wrote an article about "can we count on these machines") and the general statement to the Wisconsin public was "optical scanners are ok, they aren't hackable like the touch screens".. I about puked on my steering wheel.. Had I not been in my car, I'd have called in and corrected them, but I didn't have that option.. I'd LOVE to hear you on WPR (Wisconsin Public Radio) correcting the misconceptions from that earlier show.. including misinformation about "vote flipping" only being from miscalibrated screens. One caller called in and mentioned Clint Curtis, and the guest new nothing about it..

COMMENT #131 [Permalink]

... bjoy said on 1/9/2008 @ 11:04 am PT...





It's not just the difference in the hand count and machine count that is troubling. For instance McCain beat Romney soundly in the hand count (15%) but by just a couple points on machines. The hand counts are in rural areas, small towns. I can see them really going for McCain and Romney would be more appealing to city republicans (if he was appealing to anyone) But Obama? Since when would rural and small town voters like a young, black upstart candidate so much more than urban voters would?

He would do much better in large towns and cities than the rural areas so we don't get a realistic sense of the margin just by assuming he'd do at least equally well with machine counts. This is just so wrong. Whatever candidate we support this must be looked into.

COMMENT #132 [Permalink]

... John said on 1/9/2008 @ 11:07 am PT...





Brad, I have purged KOS long ago from my computer. It is way too biased and programmed. Hillary cost all of us National Health 10 years ago because of her terrible judgement and terrible controling nature. All we ever needed to do is expand medicare to include everyone; that is a proposal everyone could understand. But instead Hillary did deals in private, and came out with that 1000 page monster plan that the public never understood or supported. But for Hillary we would have had National Health already. If the Dems had gotten national health passed, they would certainly have kept the White House in 2000. Gore would have not gone to war on Iraq, and the entire world would have been in much better shape today.

COMMENT #133 [Permalink]

... Steve O said on 1/9/2008 @ 11:21 am PT...





I found it odd that the percentages never changed much as the vote tally came in from various parts of the state. It was remarkably consistant. On more than one ocaission the vote totals for Hillary ended in 0000. It just strikes me as hard to believe that the percentages in Manchester were the same as in Conway.

COMMENT #134 [Permalink]

... greenwarrior said on 1/9/2008 @ 11:26 am PT...





What bothered me as I watched the results coming in through the night was that even though the numbers of voters were getting bigger, after a certain point early on, the percentages did not change at all for Clinton, Obama and Edwards. Or for McCain for that matter. That seems strange to me.

COMMENT #135 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 11:29 am PT...





"According to the vote tabulators, in the 2004 presidential election George W. Bush won a stunning victory that defied all odds, particularly those applied by unbiased statisticians. He won despite trailing in most state and national polls. He won despite an approval rating of less than 50%, usually the death knell for an incumbent presidential candidate. He won despite trailing in the three National Exit Polls three timelines from 4pm to 12:22 am (13047 respondents) by a steady 48%-51%, miraculously winning the final exit poll (with only 613 additional respondents, totaling 13,660). This poll was “weighted” (altered) to meet the reported election result on the assumption that the reported result was accurate --- quite an assumption. The final poll showed a stunning reversal of the Kerry 51%-48% poll margin, which had been measured consistently all day by the same polling group: major news/networks and polling firm Edison-Mitofsky." http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0507/S00238.htm

COMMENT #136 [Permalink]

... Big Dan said on 1/9/2008 @ 11:31 am PT...





This has been going on for quite a while! WAKE UP!

COMMENT #137 [Permalink]

... Hank J said on 1/9/2008 @ 11:44 am PT...





Vote fraud has been confirmed in Sutton, NH which recorded 0 votes for Ron Paul. When several members of a NH Ron Paul Meet-up group stated that they voted for Ron Paul in that district, all of the sudden 31 Ron Paul votes appearred. These elections are being stolen. Rigging votes,yet another infringement on our rights by the gov't. Add it to the ever-growing list of violations:

They violate the 1st Amendment by opening mail, caging demonstrators and banning books like America Deceived (book) from Amazon.

They violate the 2nd Amendment by confiscating guns during Katrina.

They violate the 4th Amendment by conducting warrant-less wiretaps.

They violate the 5th and 6th Amendment by suspending habeas corpus.

They violate the 8th Amendment by torturing.

They violate the entire Constitution by starting 2 illegal wars based on lies and on behalf of a foriegn gov't.

Support Dr. Ron Paul and save us all.

COMMENT #138 [Permalink]

... Bob In Pacifica said on 1/9/2008 @ 11:58 am PT...





Put on your tinfoil hats. Let me take you through a conspiratorial explanation of what New Hampshire means. There is a permanent government, pro-corporate. It controls the government and wants to keep on controlling it. It uses the FBI, CIA, NSA, etc., on one level, and it owns most of the media and has commenters and talking heads on their leashes. They've got a problem. Their current President is so disliked that there is a chance to see a really progressive Congress (comparatively) get elected as well as a Democratic President. What to do? Even though there isn't all that much difference between Obama and Clinton, she is their horse in the Democratic race. Solution: Create divisions within the Democrats. With the New Hampshire upset a narrative is created that exposes man v. woman and black v. white friction. The Right already hates blacks and wants to keep women down. Why not create a situation that gets the Left to do it to themselves? A tell or two? The New York Times prints a laughable op-ed by Gloria Steinem, "Women Can't Be Frontrunners," when Hillary has been a frontrunner for all but four days of the campaign. To understand you just have to know Steinem's employment history. Everyone in the MSM announces the end of Hillary's campaign, the better to be impressed and amazed when she pulls this one out (with the help of Diebold). There's the "Iron My Shirt Bitch" poster, as subtle as Lee Harvey Oswald handing out Fair Play For Cuba pamphlets. All these reasons "explain" why women forget issues and political positions and "rush to defend another girl." The fix is good because it keeps the fight going. Forget turning Demo guns on the Republicans. They'll have to shoot each other all the way to the convention. And the fight? An orchestrated battle to divide the progressive movements within the Left. Expect Tammy Bruce and the like to be getting lots of publicity really soon. Maybe a dead female staffer working for Obama or Edwards will pull in Nancy Grace. Around August or September when you think that the Dems have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory you will have been forewarned.

COMMENT #139 [Permalink]

... CharlieL said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:02 pm PT...





Awww shucks folks. The Rethuglicans manipulated the voting process in New Hampshire to achive the results they wanted in both the REthuglican and Democratic sides. Surprise, Surprise. And nobody on the Dem side is going to do a thing about it. Surprise, Surprise. I think we need to begin planning for the possible contingency that the Republican ticket in November 2008 will have a "stunning upset" over the Democratic ticket, overcomming a 10-15% (discredited) polling disadvantage going into election day to win 51% to 49%. We have to stop thinking of how we are going to reform the election system --- it ain't gonna happen Brad, sorry, I wish it was, but without the support of at least ONE of the two major parties, it simply is NOT going to happen. We have to start thinking of how we are going to RESPOND when they steal what will surely be the last open election of our lifetimes. Are we going to just turn off the TV, take a swig of booze and continue BLOGGING about it? Or are we going to take PHYSICAL ACTION and PROTEST and MAKE IT CLEAR that: "We are mad as hell and we aren't going to take it any more."

COMMENT #140 [Permalink]

... Jim H said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:07 pm PT...





Support Dr. Ron Paul and save us all. Ron Paul is a racist homophobic kook who's got you and the rest of your cult-of-personality fooled. Pleases wake up and read his decades of writings; then figure out what his economic and social policies would do to this country. That said, if the numbers don't add up I have real questions about the counting/recording of votes.

COMMENT #141 [Permalink]

... SocraticGadfly said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:08 pm PT...





Puhleeze, Brad. On TPM, Zogby has already said he was seeing movement the last day, but the sample size was too small to officially go public.

COMMENT #142 [Permalink]

... Peter said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:22 pm PT...





Isn't it wonderful that there could be an upset not predicted by polls. How is it that a flock of birds suddenly changes course and all of them move in a different direction. Why is it so hard to believe that we voters could also have an animal instinct that causes us to change directions, suddenly, without notice? As John Edwards said, it is two down and 48 to go. The decision isn't over. These states, relatively small and not typical were just the first to set a course. Who knows, maybe the herd will suddenly turn Richardson's way.

COMMENT #143 [Permalink]

... Alex said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:24 pm PT...





I don't want to be one to throw the baby out with the bath water, but if the Dems are just as willing to alter elections as the Reps then maybe we need to scrap the two parties, and start over. When we start over we put restrictions on the power of the parties over the political system. Because George Washington's farewell address warning to the nation seems too accurate when he said,

"However [political parties] may now and then answer popular ends, they are likely in the course of time and things, to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government, destroying afterwards the very engines which have lifted them to unjust dominion." Women should be included in this quote.

COMMENT #144 [Permalink]

... Caleb said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:32 pm PT...





You are right to be suspicious of election results that differ wildly from all the polls, but remember that there was a highly dynamic and changeable situation in the five days between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. The brutal, and in my estimation unfair attacks on Clinton (and I am an Edwards supporter who does not particularly like her), may well have led to a last-minute backlash on her behalf. Ditto for the effect of Obama's snide comment to Clinton during the last debate that "you're nice enough." Also, many of the previous responders are correct as to the possible effects of racism. The possible impact of closet racism should never, never be discounted in evaluating U.S. election results when an African-American is on the ticket. This is true regardless of how purportedly open-minded and liberal the jurisdiction is.

COMMENT #145 [Permalink]

... Marky said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:34 pm PT...





(Sorry, I've had trouble getting this post to work) According to the MSNBC Exit polls Clinton did much better than Obama in the under $50K income group. This generalization would still be valid if the numbers were changed to reflect the results. The {Ed Note: On this end it just looks as though you're hitting the post button too soon...? --99}

COMMENT #146 [Permalink]

... Marky said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:35 pm PT...





The less than $50K group, in general are going to be in the more populated areas in NH, which are all machine counted. Hand counts were only done in small towns, which, in general, do not have a lot of services for the poor. This is a possible explaination for the difference between the hand-counted towns, and the machine counted towns.

When the SoS posts the final numbers I will try to compare similar towns and get a better comparison of hand vs machine count.

COMMENT #147 [Permalink]

... elliott said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:36 pm PT...





Research shows the voting very close between Obama / Clinton in NH. Most the towns are very close whether Diebold or paper ballot. Three big cities, all Diebold show major differences. Ranging from 40 - 80% favoring Clinton are Manchester, Nashua, and Salem, the three biggest cities in NH.

COMMENT #148 [Permalink]

... elliott said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:41 pm PT...





Thats over 5k votes favoring Clinton in 3 NH cities

COMMENT #149 [Permalink]

... AHiddenSaint said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:55 pm PT...





I did do a diary but I make no claims to be a expert first off. I am 26 and the only election I have voted in was John Kerry. I do believe in fair elections. I am leaning more towards Edwards or Obama, but I would vote for Clinton if she won. I do not think Clinton personally would have done something like this, but the establishment in order to keep making money. The tv networks know they make a big amount of money out of the election cycle commericals. Plus news network do not want the election part to in otherwise it won't boost ratings. That is the establishment I speak of. BTW, I'm not the best diariest or best person on stuff. I have seen bradblog posted before when during with 2004 election. I do check many websites for news related stuff. I'm usually a little bit more at ease on changing stuff if I make a mistake, but I was trying to crosspost. I hope I did a ok job and if I can do better I'll try. I'm still learning.

COMMENT #150 [Permalink]

... Pat #1 said on 1/9/2008 @ 12:56 pm PT...





...sorry Jim H. that you feel that way about Dr. Paul...maybe it's you that needs to read up on facts and not smear campaigns. Is that all his opposition can come up with? I can do the same with Hillary...let's see, I'll just call her a lying traitor lesbian, and a friend of mine said she called a black man a *igger once. The secret service can't stand her (they seem to like Bill just fine)but I am actually stating facts here, aren't I? They really are. These things said about Paul are completely untrue.

Paul is the only one that understands foreign policy needs to change dramatically as well as our economy. The point Paul makes is that our economy and our currency is headed straight for the shitter. IS HE WRONG? You think another trillion dollar "social initiative" program like health care will do us any better if we keep fighting these illegal wars? Where 'ya gonna get the money for that Hillary? From China of course. Bring our troops back home where they belong, stop dumping depleted uranium all over the world, killing innocent children(yes folks that's what we do),then we can work on socialism. RonPaul2008!

COMMENT #151 [Permalink]

... lulu said on 1/9/2008 @ 1:08 pm PT...





The difference between the handcount districts and the machine count districts is significant, as is the difference between the polls and the results. Partly because it creates an atmosphere of suspicion that undermines the legitimacy of the process. In order to create confidence in the voting a 10-20% handcount of all machine-count precincts needs to be conducted. It can do no harm, and will increase confidence if the handcount matches the machine count. If not, a full handcount needs to be conducted of all ballots. Members of the election integrity community need to focus now on a calm but firm call for this to take place. Contact the Secretary of State in New Hampshire, and write letters to the editor of your paper. This is a longer entry on my blog. lulu

writer/director

Holler Back - [not] Voting in an American Town

COMMENT #152 [Permalink]

... David said on 1/9/2008 @ 1:13 pm PT...





So we have one documented case of a township in NH claiming Ron Paul got 0 votes while in fact he got 31. The Town Clerk there admitted as much to Bev Harris this morning, blamed it on a human error and now the tallies in Sutton, NH have been changed to reflect the 31 votes. http://prisonplanet.com/...8/010908_not_counted.htm There were numerous other townships where Paul got very few votes compared to his polling numbers. I believe Dr. Paul is going to be forced to pay for a recount. If he doesn't, I predict his campaign will be finished. If he isn't willing to fight for democracy now, people have a right to know why. A caller from Iowa who said he doublechecked the numbers in a precinct there also mentioned that the final numbers didn't add up from what he counted, swinging wildly in favor of Mike Huckster and seeing Dr. Paul's vote total drop by about 40%. That information should be forthcoming soon as well.



They are setting us up for a stolen primary process where Hillary is already the heir apparent. It looks like Obama was really screwed out of votes in NH, and it is strange that he conceeded so early. (Remember John Kerry and Ohio?) This is not real choice but instead the illusion of choice in order to keep us quiet. This should not be tolarated unless you enjoy living in a police state. Wake up people before it is too late. This isn't in anyone's best interest, no matter who took what last night.

COMMENT #153 [Permalink]

... Mac at DraftGoreNE.com said on 1/9/2008 @ 1:20 pm PT...





Hey folks, Remember that e-voting and e-counting is not bad ONLY because it can be hacked. Programming errors and equipment errors can very easily skew results. It's natural to assume foul-play in situations like this, but we've got to condition ourselves, and the media and general public, to realise that these junky machines can screw up all by themselves.... Mac

COMMENT #154 [Permalink]

... Jon Paul said on 1/9/2008 @ 1:27 pm PT...





It is so obvious that something stinks in the whole primary fiasco. The three top candidates are Iraq war mongers while the Dems are hugely against the war. people have to be really gulible to not recognize the we are being bamboozled into a false dichotomy, a false choice. Wake up America. It's very late. Kucinich is th only candidate with the voting record and the positions on issues that match the wishes of the American people. We are all being hood winked. WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!

COMMENT #155 [Permalink]

... Jon Paul said on 1/9/2008 @ 1:33 pm PT...





Also, The problems with electronic voting and counting is only part of the problem. It's way down the line of problems. The first problem is that we have a criminal corporate cabal incharge of the administration , the courts and the congress. they also control the media. We are living in a fascist state right now where any one of you can be taken off the street and sent to a torture camp right now, with no recourse to any help whatsoever. That none of the top candidates have addressed the probelms sith the PATRIOT act is clue enough for any critical thinking citizen. WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

COMMENT #156 [Permalink]

... Mary Arnold said on 1/9/2008 @ 1:35 pm PT...





NH is a small state and it would be relatively easy to recount the votes by hand. Please Brad, start a movement to make a hand count happen!

COMMENT #157 [Permalink]

... Jordan said on 1/9/2008 @ 2:01 pm PT...





dailykos is sooo NOT a clinton centric website. wow that is way off the mark. way off. th e dailykos polls have shown OVERWHELMINGG support for Ewards, and then in 2nd Obama. Clinton is bashed around on that web page evry single day. sorry brad but your just wrong on that. furthermore i posted a series of diaries about ohio fraud in 2004 and i was never deleted.

COMMENT #158 [Permalink]

... PigBag said on 1/9/2008 @ 2:04 pm PT...





{Ed Note: Obnoxious, anti-semitic comment deleted.}

COMMENT #159 [Permalink]

... Erma said on 1/9/2008 @ 2:08 pm PT...





Brad, If you haven't already done so, you might consider contacting John Zogby about this. I read his statement just a moment ago on his thoughts of what happened in NH, and there is ***not one word*** (as per usual from John Zogby) about the voting system(s) used in NH. Here's the link to his statement: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1419 His poll turned out to be "wrong" in 2004 as well when he showed Kerry/Edwards winning. Again, at that time, he did not mention a word about easily-hackable electronic voting machines after the fact. From all that I've seen from Zogby, he absolutely refuses to talk about e-voting systems and from what I've seen from him he even refuses to consider the fact that there are "problems" with Diebold, in particular. I've lost a lot of respect for him because of this---what appears to be---denial on his part. Zogby likes to pretend that we have a legitimate, honest and fair voting system here in the States where all the votes are counted accurately and honestly. That's the impression/message I've gotten from him repeatedly. And because of that, the man frustrates me to no end because of all the credible information available about e-voting, how can any intelligent pollster not even consider the easily-hackable e-voting system the public cast their vote on? And then the pollster (Zogby in this case) wonders why his poll was wrong?! Duh. I suspect that the reason Zogby seemingly chooses to remain in denial about e-voting is because he doesn't want to be labeled a "loony conspiracy theorist" by those who work in the bush state media for whom he works, and have his reputation tarnished or ruined.

COMMENT #160 [Permalink]

... Lois G. said on 1/9/2008 @ 2:23 pm PT...





The one to get on the case is Dick Morris and then it goes on Drudge.

COMMENT #161 [Permalink]

... Bluebear2 said on 1/9/2008 @ 2:23 pm PT...





Have you seen this: WASHINGTON (CNN) --- A conservative majority of the Supreme Court appeared ready Wednesday to support an Indiana law requiring voters to show photo identification, despite concerns that it could deprive thousands of people of their right to vote. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/09/voter.id/

COMMENT #162 [Permalink]

... Bob In Pacifica said on 1/9/2008 @ 2:23 pm PT...





Not saying it is or isn't. But just who is fixing (if there is fixing) doesn't necessarily have to be the candidates or their campaigns. Create a scenario where, say the company who owns the Diebolds is approached by someone who claims to be in the Clinton campaign who goes and asks "How much for ten thousand votes?" And what about the suspicious bumps for Mitt? Would said company owner have one line for Demo bids and one line for Repub bids? The dynamics of fixing primaries goes beyond just party v. party dirty tricks.

COMMENT #163 [Permalink]

... Bluebear2 said on 1/9/2008 @ 2:24 pm PT...





The fix is in!

COMMENT #164 [Permalink]

... Threegoal said on 1/9/2008 @ 2:26 pm PT...





Brad, A couple points: First, as stated by others, you are off in the weeds characterizing Daily Kos as favoring Clinton. From time to time they have run reader polls, and Edwards has always been way out in front, with Obama somewhat behind and Clinton far back. In fact I am not sure if she was doing as well as Kucinich among the Kos community.