One day after watching Wales lose at home for the first time in 21 months, the head coach, Warren Gatland, revealed his World Cup squad that he believes is good enough to win the tournament.

The 22-17 defeat against Ireland held as much succour for Gatland as the victory against England two weeks before had. His 23 for the match did not contain one player who is likely to start the group match against Australia in Tokyo at the end of the month and his side rallied from 19 points down in the final quarter and might have won had the hooker Elliot Dee not lost control of the ball over the line.

Gatland’s selection for Japan, which contains 13 players with experience in the tournament and nine Lions, showed how Wales have grown since he took over at the end of 2007. He had to make up the numbers in his first World Cup squad but is now able to leave out experienced players such as Scott Williams, Samson Lee, Rob Evans and Bradley Davies and include the 21-year old prop Rhys Carre, who made one appearance for Cardiff Blues before joining Saracens this summer.

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Carre epitomised Wales’s performance against Ireland. They were, for long periods, outplayed by a team that contained only four of the starters at Twickenham the previous week but had a more familiar feel. He was given the first half when Irish knowhow, playing little in their own half, kicking long and contesting the set‑pieces, exploited the home side’s barely tried combinations and fed off the mistakes they forced.

Carre carried, taking the fight to Ireland and in the final 20 minutes Wales’s conditioning told as they scored 14 unanswered points. Rhys Patchell was by then on at fly-half in place of Jarrod Evans who was given the first 40 minutes, when Wales were being suffocated and largely operating behind the gainline.

The pair were playing for the second fly-half berth in the squad following Gareth Anscombe’s injury and the impact made by Patchell, who lost his place at Scarlets last season after suffering a severe concussion, swayed the vote in selection.

“Rhys gave a solid performance after a tough first half for Jarrod,” Gatland said. “Rhys controlled the game nicely, scored a try and kickedhis goals. Since he has been with us it has been about rebuilding his confidence. He had not had a lot of rugby and we tried to give him the belief that he is capable of performing at this level.

“He also has some experience and in the last four years we have created depth in the squad which means we have left out players of real quality. That is why I believe we are good enough to win the World Cup. In the past we have been happy with 23 or 24 players and not been sure about the ability of the rest.”

Injuries undermined Wales in 2015, when they almost ran out of centres. They have already lost Anscombe and Taulupe Faletau to injury and Rhys Webb is unavailable because he is based outside the country and has not met the cap threshold of 60 for exiles. They are players in the key positions of 8, 9 and 10 and in the second row Cory Hill was included in the 31 even though a scan last week revealed he had suffered a small stress fracture in a leg and would miss the opening game against Georgia.

Quick guide Wales squad for Rugby World Cup Show Hide Backs: Josh Adams (Cardiff Blues), Hallam Amos (Cardiff Blues), Dan Biggar (Northampton), Aled Davies (Ospreys), Gareth Davies (Scarlets), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Leigh Halfpenny (Scarlets), George North (Ospreys), Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets), Rhys Patchell (Scarlets), Owen Watkin (Ospreys), Liam Williams (Saracens), Tomos Williams (Cardiff Blues).

Forwards: Jake Ball (Scarlets), Adam Beard (Ospreys), Rhys Carre (Saracens), James Davies (Scarlets), Elliot Dee (Dragons), Ryan Elias (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter), Cory Hill (Dragons), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Wyn Jones (Scarlets), Dillon Lewis (Cardiff Blues), Ross Moriarty (Dragons), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Aaron Shingler (Scarlets), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons).

“We felt it was worth the risk,” said Gatland, who is taking 18 forwards but only five props to Japan to accommodate Hill. “We made a massive call over Rhys Carre but I saw someone who came into camp and had his eyes opened.

“The progress he has made in the last 13 weeks is phenomenal and he will only get better.

“I think it will be the most open World Cup in a long time. Six or seven teams look capable of winning it and you are going to need a bit of luck. Northern hemisphere teams have a really good chance. England are going to be tough with their huge side. We will go there with a lot of confidence, knowing we are in great shape physically, which is why we were able to grow in the second half on Saturday.”

Ireland’s players will find out on Monday whether they have made the 31 for Japan, along with the World Cup organisers, but their head coach, Joe Schmidt, will not be making his selection public until after the return fixture against Wales in Dublin on Saturday.

“There are not clear-cut lines between some players,” said Schmidt, who was heartened by a defensive and set-piece display that was a marked upgrade on Twickenham. “Someone who is very close is going to miss out. We restored some self-confidence in Cardiff and we have to make sure that we build on that.”