Other recently launched services have barely made a dent in the market, with Stan, joint-owned by Nine Entertainment Co and Fairfax Media, publisher of this article, claiming 7 per cent market share in April; while Presto, Foxtel's streaming service, has just 1 per cent. Quickflix, a veteran in the space, has seen its small slice of the pie shrink from 6 per cent six months ago to just 3 per cent in April. Foxtel's business subscribers – company kitchens, meeting rooms and bars – are not captured by the data. Based on a study of 85,000 Australians using Pocketbook's app, the data also shows 97 per cent of Australians who subscribed to Netflix's US service using tools such as virtual private networks (VPNs) have not yet trialled Netflix's Australian service.

This is despite Netflix chief executive Reed Hasting saying last month that he believed the use of VPNs to access the US catalogue would soon "disappear" as a result of the company meeting demand "directly" in each particular market. And, if Stan's claim of 200,000 subscribers is accurate, there could be many more Australians accessing the US Netflix service than previously thought. The number of Australians accessing US Netflix was thought to be around 200,000, though Netflix has never verified this. But looking at the Pocketbook data, if Stan is at 200,000 subscribers now (confirmed by Nine and Fairfax), then Netflix already had about 500,000 paying Australian customers before it officially launched here. CHOICE recently said there were 684,000 Australians using VPNs overall to access overseas content. I think [Netflix] are really in their honeymoon period and that will last until quarter three this year and then you will start to see a lessening of growth. Steve Allen

"We can confidently conclude that Netflix is going to grow to be the dominant player in the media subscription landscape in Australia in the not too distant future," said Bosco Tan, chief operation officer of Pocketbook, which collects data by analysing users' bank statements to collect intelligence and insights. "Their growth in the space of 1 month has been staggering, buoyed by a significant existing customer base accessing the service via VPN services, free month offering and significant public attention." Mr Tan added that the dominant trend of growth over March and April was solely attributable to the growth of Netflix's Australian service, which now eclipses the US subscription. While he said there was "some skew" in the data towards a digitally-savvy audience, that bias wasn't too far pronounced from what was happening in reality.

Media analyst Steve Allen of Fusion Strategy said transactional data like that produced by Pocketbook was useful in understanding what was really happening in the media landscape. While Netflix was recording rapid growth Australia, he said it was important to note that the US company was a new entrant and people were still testing it out. "I think they are really in their honeymoon period and that will last until quarter three this year and then you will start to see a lessening of growth," he said. "That is the way we feel about Netflix," he said. "At the end of the day all future transactions — not so much the hot spot we see now — will be based on content. "And Netflix just doesn't have enough new content in our view to sustain what is happening now ... because some of the key [content] properties are signed up to Foxtel for the next couple of years."

Regardless, Mr Allen said Foxtel's biggest fear from the figures would be people signing up to Stan, Quickflix, Netflix or Presto (owned by Foxtel) at a slightly less cost than a Foxtel subscription. Foxtel does, however, still have live sport, Mr Allen said, which its rivals do not have. Whether that's enough to stop its marketshare falling remains to be seen. Gyde, an industry research tool and dashboard, said in late April that Stan lead in total streamable hours in Australia, while Netflix's Australian catalogue appeared to be closing the gap with new content being added weekly since its launch. Analysis by Gyde and a software developer of Netflix's Australian and US catalogues earlier this year showed the local catalogue had some 7000 fewer titles than the US one, although Netflix said this was not entirely accurate.