On the issues, moderates often see virtue in both sides' arguments. A huge majority (84 percent) want more background checks for gun buyers, but 58 percent say our current gun laws are "sufficient to protect me and my community." Three-quarters want to expand domestic exploration of coal, oil, and natural gas, but nearly 90 percent want to invest more in renewable energy. Seventy-six percent agree that it's immoral "to leave our children a country that is $17 trillion in debt," but 72 percent agree that "we need to increase investments in infrastructure and education rather than worrying about long-term debt."

On immigration and national security, however, moderates are mostly on one side of the issue: 86 percent of moderates see undocumented immigrants as hardworking people trying to care for their families, and a slim majority disagree with the idea that giving them citizenship would "reward bad behavior," 50 percent to 47 percent. Meanwhile 72 percent worry about the government going too far monitoring phone and internet usage, and a majority say they are not worried we're not doing enough to stop the next terror attack on U.S. soil.

On issues of poverty and opportunity, moderates worry about structural obstacles to the American dream, but they don't see themselves as victims. Just 28 percent of moderates agree that discrimination against racial minorities is a thing of the past, compared to 18 percent of liberals and 43 percent of conservatives. Four in 10 moderates think people are poor primarily because they've made bad choices; a quarter of liberals believe this, while 60 percent of conservatives do.

Majorities of moderates believe government should play a role in creating equal opportunity and that a strong safety net is important even if "a few lazy people game the system," but moderates also largely believe the government has created incentives for poor people not to work. Most interestingly, even as they see society as unequal, seven in 10 moderates disagree with the idea that "the deck is stacked against people like me." In fact, it was conservatives who were most likely to see themselves as victims: 35 percent said the deck was stacked against them, versus 28 percent of liberals and moderates.

Source: State of the Center, Third Way and the Benenson Strategy Group, 2014

Moderates see both parties as overly ideological—they say Democrats are too liberal and Republicans too conservative—and they are distressed by the harsh nature of modern political discourse, more likely than liberals or conservatives to say they avoid political conversations because they're too divisive. But they aren't disengaged: Only 35 percent say they tune out politics, about the same as liberals and conservatives.

The Third Way researchers are what might be termed partisans of moderation—the importance of moderates in politics is their raison d'etre, and they have an obvious interest in reinforcing that notion. But this poll provides compelling evidence that they're correct. There is indeed a major segment of the electorate that doesn't belong firmly to either ideological camp, and it is distinct in its ideas and sympathies from either liberals or conservatives. Democrats' success in recent national elections can be attributed to their arguments' generally greater resonance with voters in the middle. But Republicans could win them back with a more centrist message—and Democrats could lose them if they stray too far to the left.

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