You wouldn't think it, given recent commentary, but a look at history suggests the government has no reason to panic.

Anyone who takes opinion polls and media coverage of them at face value would think the Coalition is an even chance of winning this year's federal election. ''Rudd takes a battering'', ''Rudd in free fall'', ''Election-losing result'': the headlines paint a picture of terminal decline. Yes, the Coalition has drawn level, and even edged ahead in two recent polls, and Kevin Rudd's approval rating of 45 per cent is a personal low. Think that's bad within six months of an election? Time for a historical reality check.

Illustration: Andrew Dyson

The polls for Tony Abbott and the Coalition are the worst in 20 years for any opposition at this point in the election cycle. Of seven elections in that time, only two changed the government. Six months before John Howard's 1996 triumph, The Age headline read: ''Coalition opens up huge lead on ALP.'' Huge it was: 51 to 35 per cent on the primary vote and 58-42 on preferences. Prime minister Paul Keating's approval fell to 35 per cent; disapproval was up to 58 per cent. With a 52 per cent approval rating, Howard led 49-37 as preferred PM.

In 2006-07, Rudd turned the tables on Howard, although few were game to write off the Coalition. ''PM gains, but Rudd leads'' and ''Inkling of hope for Howard'' do not reflect the gap between the parties after the 2007 budget. Labor, ahead for more than a year, led by an average of 49-38 on the primary vote and 58-42 on preferences in the major polls. Rudd was preferred prime minister by a 51-43 margin. Yet a one-point gain for Howard and a two-point lift in the primary vote were seen as offering hope, as was a dip in Rudd's approval rating to 64 per cent.