Article content continued

“These volumes do not depend on the commissioning of new pipelines to evacuate Albertan oil to the Pacific Coast, since according to official data, Canada already exports the odd cargo to China, India, Malaysia and Singapore,” the IEA said.

“It is presumed that volumes will grow in the event of an expansion of Canadian companies being permitted to re-export crude via the United States or by increasing volumes being railed to the Pacific Coast.”

All but a fraction of Canadian crude today is exported to the U.S., although producers have begun drip-feeding small batches onto global markets.

A decision on Enbridge’s $7.9-billion oil pipeline from the federal cabinet is expected Tuesday. The 1,178-kilometre line would ship up to 525,000 barrels of oil sands-derived crude per day from Alberta to a Pacific port at Kitimat, B.C.

Regulators approved the project with 209 conditions last year, but it remains hotly contested by some aboriginal and environmental groups, who contend the risk of an oil spill outweighs the pipeline’s projected benefits.

The project could start-up by late 2018 at the earliest, the IEA said. A rival Pacific pipeline proposed by Kinder Morgan Canada Inc. could be commissioned after 2019, the agency said.

“If one or both of these lines get completed during the forecast, it would mean that Canadian exports to the Pacific Basin could steeply increase,” the IEA said.

Canada has seen rapid growth in the volume of crude shipped by rail in recent years, as producers look to skirt pipeline shortages. The shipments reached about 160,000 barrels a day in the first-quarter this year, up more than 50% from a year earlier.

Oil companies including Suncor Energy Inc., stymied by delays to TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline to the U.S. Gulf Coast, are exploring re-exporting crude from the region, taking advantage of a provision that allows Canadian crude to bypass U.S. export restrictions.

In May, Repsol bought a 600,000-barrel cargo of Western Canada Select heavy crude from the Gulf Coast for use in its Spanish refineries, in one of the first major re-exports of Canadian volumes.