On Monday, 16 conservative Democrats took their shot at Nancy Pelosi, who is expected to easily win the speakership when the 116th Congress convenes in January. It’s an odd, futile rebellion, one that underscores the incoherence of a lot of Pelosi’s critics, particularly in right-leaning districts.

One problem, among many: An alternative to Pelosi is never named. Ohio Democrat Marcia Fudge is considering a challenge, but she didn’t even sign the letter. The letter itself fails to mention specific criticisms of Pelosi’s past performance, or of the aims she has set for the next Congress. It does not say what the conservative antagonists, who are decidedly to the right of their fellow Democrats and more likely to vote with President Donald Trump, think a Democratic-controlled House should try to accomplish.

Instead, the letter falls back on a familiar gripe: that Democrats need younger leaders and that means replacing the 78-year-old Pelosi. “Our majority came on the backs of candidates who said that they would support new leadership because voters in hard-won districts, and across the country, want to see real change in Washington,” the letter reads. “We promised to change the status quo, and we intend to deliver on that promise.“



It’s true that Democrats should develop the next generation of leaders. Pelosi herself has acknowledged the need for “new blood,” saying, however believably, that she would have stepped aside if Hillary Clinton had won the White House in 2016. But the protest against Pelosi is more about the San Francisco liberal’s unpopularity, particularly in the purple rural and suburban districts represented by letter-signers like Ohio’s Tim Ryan (who challenged Pelosi for the role of minority leader two years ago) and incoming freshman Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. And it ultimately says less about the strength of Pelosi’s position than the weakness of conservative Democrats as we head into the 2020 presidential cycle.



The last time Pelosi was speaker, from 2007 to 2011, the conservative Blue Dog coalition was enormously influential. Today, even with gains in suburban districts, it’s a shadow of its former self. Pelosi’s previous tenure was defined, in part, by the split between liberals like herself and the Blue Dogs. In the 116th Congress, it will be defined by the tensions between Pelosi and her left flank.