The Ledger in Lakeland Florida published a Mason-Dixon poll on Thursday with some interesting results on the Florida early vote. The Florida SOS reports that about 750k people have voted in the Democratic primary already. About 1.7 million voted in the 2008 primary, which was contested by all three candidates, but Florida delegates were not seated at the convention.

Clinton is winning the early vote by 42 points, which would mean an 89 delegate net from Florida’s 214 pledged delegates. The margin on Tuesday is likely to be tighter, but a large lead when so many people have already voted is a good sign for Clinton. 350k, about a quarter of Democratic primary voters, voted early in 2008. Given larger official campaigns in Florida this primary the 750k could be a third or a half of turnout.

Michigan, which was not contested in 2008, does not have early vote. The bad turnout models which appear to have caused Michigan polls to miss the result don’t apply as much to early vote. Likelihood to vote for early vote is measured by asking if the respondent has already voted, it doesn’t have to be weighted for turnout.