Israeli Climate-Change Forecasts for the Year 2100 Mean temperature increase of between 1.6° and 1.8° C.

Reduction in precipitation between 4 and 8 percent; increased rain intensity; and changes in rainfall patterns.

Increase in evapotranspiration by nearly 10 percent.

Greater seasonal temperature variability.

More severe weather events, such as droughts and floods.

Mediterranean biomes expected to shift 300 to 500 km northward; if a 1.5º C warming were to occur, which could mean that Mediterranean ecosystems in Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan would become more desert-like.

Some models predict as much as a 50 percent reduction in mean annual precipitation in the Jordan River Basin. Environmental Effects of Climate Change on the Middle East Severe water shortages.

More severe weather events, such as droughts and floods.

Desertification, loss of arable land.

Shifting of ecosystems, species loss.

Coral reef bleaching.

Increase in jellyfish population.



Socioeconomic Effects of Climate Change on Middle East Severe water shortages.

Agricultural losses.

Migration in search of resources.

Refugees from inundated lands.

Economic crisis Political Ramifications Increased tension between countries sharing water resources.

Difficulties for governments to provide for their country’s needs, leading to internal instability and a likelihood of failed states.

“Exacerbated marginal living conditions foster extremist and radical ideologies and conflicts.” — U.S. Army Gen. Anthony Zinni Security Implications Fewer water resources available for existing peace agreements.

More difficult to comply with Jordan River water sharing arrangement (50 mcm/pa). More difficult to comply with Yarmouk River water-sharing arrangements (27 mcm/pa). Palestinian future needs recognized as 70 to 80 mcm/pa. In a final agreement, Palestinian demands will be higher.

Fewer water resources available for future agreements. Lebanon will want to share water from the Jordan River tributaries. Syria will want to share water from the Jordan River and sources of the Sea of Galilee.

Less rainfall impacts the economy. Palestinian Authority economy heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture for income and employment. Jordan Valley bread basket of Jordanian food production and rural support backbone of Kingdom’s political stability. Israeli agricultural lobby powerful across political divide.

Rising sea levels will impact the coastal aquifer beneath Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Further increase salinity of drinking water for Gaza. Further contamination of the coastal aquifer.

>>> Click here to download this page formatted as a handout <<< Source: Israel’s First National Communication on Climate Change, submitted under COP 6: The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, held Nov. 13 — 25, 2000 in The Hague, Netherlands.