ALLEN PARK -- The Detroit Lions had the worst running game in the league by almost every statistical measure in 2017, and Bob Quinn has said he expects to upgrade the running back personnel this offseason.

But according to ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr., just don't expect it to happen in the first round of the draft.

"I think running backs are (their) biggest need, but you're not going to see one there at that point," Kiper said on a teleconference with reporters. "So you look at the pass rushing defensive ends, which like I said, could be a guy like Sam Hubbard from Ohio State."

The Lions currently hold the 20th overall pick in this year's draft, but the only running back Kiper projects to be taken in the first round is Penn State's Saquon Barkley. And he's going to be long gone by then.

So Kiper sent a pass rusher to Detroit instead in his first mock draft. And the Lions certainly need help there too after pressuring opposing quarterbacks on just 25.5 percent of their dropbacks last year. That was fourth worst in the league.

Ezekiel Ansah did finish with 12 sacks, which was eighth in the league, but nine came in three games, and six in the last two. He was otherwise ordinary throughout much of 2017, and now his contract is set to expire in March, which means Detroit must figure out whether to place the franchise tag on him or sign him to a new deal -- or, perhaps, let him walk.

Either way, the Lions are expected to pursue a pass rusher after neglecting the position in free agency and the draft last year. And Kiper has them doing it with their first pick.

"I gave them Sam Hubbard, the kid from Ohio State," Kiper said. "The Urban Meyer connection there to Bill Belichick. You need a pass rush. Ezekiel Ansah is also a free agent."

But, Kiper added, "they also have to get a top-flight running back. There's just not one to take at that point."

Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey were both selected in the first round last year -- matter of fact, they were both top 10 -- and both enjoyed productive rookie seasons. But nobody had more rushing yards than Kareem Hunt, and he was taken in the third round. So was Alvin Kamara, who averaged 7.7 yards every time he touched the ball.

Can you imagine somebody like that complementing Matthew Stafford?

Quinn said he had no regrets passing on Kamara in last year's draft, but he also said he didn't do enough with the personnel in the running game last year. So even if there are no running backs to be taken in the first round, expect to see him do it sometime in the second or third.

And as Kamara and Hunt showed, diamonds can be found there too.

"In the second round, you could look at (Georgia's) Sony Michel," Kiper said. "In the second or third, you could look at (LSU's) Derrius Guice. Ronald Jones from USC is another one that could go in the second round."

Michel is especially intriguing because of his big-play threat. He averaged 7.9 yards per carry for the Bulldogs last year and scored 16 touchdowns.

Guice bolstered the depth of the class by declaring for the draft a year early, and has run for more than 1,200 yards each of the last two years. Kiper says he's a first-round talent who should slip into the second round.

"I could have put Guice in the late first, but didn't find a team for him," Kiper said. "Running backs historically drop. Look at Alvin Kamara. He was a third-round pick. Guice is a good player, but he's not as versatile as Alvin Kamara. I see him as a second-round pick."

As for Jones, he piled up 2,568 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns the last two years. He's cracked 100-plus rushing yards nine times -- something no Lions running back has done since 2013 -- and twice went over 190 yards.

The 6-foot, 200-pounder projects as a three-down back at the next level.