Photo by Brandon Magnus/Zuffa LLC

Did you know that Rory MacDonald is challenging for Robbie Lawler's welterweight title this weekend? I get paid to watch this stuff and I'd almost forgotten.

The downside of the UFC putting all of its eggs in the Conor McGregor basket—aside from the whole venture being a colossal waste of money if McGregor loses in the revised bout sans Jose Aldo—is that the welterweight title fight is flying almost completely under the radar. Can you even imagine a Georges St. Pierre era welterweight title fight being second on the bill to featherweights? It would never, ever happen. St. Pierre was the biggest star the UFC ever had, probably their greatest champion, and for his entire tenure the welterweight class was where it was all going down.

And perhaps that explains some of the lack of public excitement for this fight too. Current welterweight champion, Robbie Lawler was for years an “also ran”. While his career turn around has been incredible to watch, there is still the feeling that Georges St. Pierre never lost his title. Even those who believe Johny Hendricks beat St. Pierre in their bout still feel bitterness over the decision going to St. Pierre. There's a good deal of unfinished business there and it seems like Georges St. Pierre might be the one fighter smart enough to not let the fight game tempt him back in.

That night in 2013 when the unflappable welterweight champion looked so fragile and hittable was a dual revelation. Both St. Pierre, and his teammate, Rory MacDonald were met with a brutal reality. They had developed the most educated and fluid jabs in the sport, yet they were finding no joy with them against their opponents, and they showed little else to fall back on. The problem with a perfect scientific fighter who starts with the jab and builds everything off it is that he often has no plan B when he can't get step one going.

What eliminated the fantastic jab of both men which had punished and confused so many fighters before? The hand fight.

A special kind of hand fight which only takes place when an orthodox and southpaw fighter meet. The lead hands clash and are used to check each other's quickest offence. St. Pierre had met a southpaw in his last bout, in Nick Diaz, but Diaz doesn't really control his opponent's lead hand, instead looking for jabs and lead hooks. When St. Pierre met Hendricks, his lead hand was being smothered and checked all night, while Hendricks was throwing his leads and powerful rear hand punches around it.

Earlier in the night, Rory MacDonald had suffered the same difficulties against Robbie Lawler. In the toughest match of his welterweight comeback tour, Lawler stifled the methodical jabber, used his butterfly guard to scramble up when the fight hit the deck, and nailed the young Canadian with some hard counter blows. Lawler picked up a close split decision and moved forward to eventually win the welterweight title from Johny Hendricks.



Lawler constantly checking MacDonald's lead hand, killing the jab.

Since that loss to Lawler, Rory MacDonald has gone on a three fight winning streak over very respectable competition. First was Demian Maia, also a southpaw. The grappling savant got MacDonald to the floor and mounted him in the early going of the bout, but MacDonald quickly freed himself and used body kicks to punish the Brazilian into a sluggish shell of his first round self.

Then came Tyron Woodley, the hard-hitting wrestler who was fresh off of a TKO victory over Carlos Condit. Here MacDonald returned to his beautiful jab, even using the triple jab high-low-high to set up combinations. Don Familton said of this simple set up that “it's worked for a hundred years and it'll probably work for another hundred”.

MacDonald's pressure in this bout was masterful. He would walk the squat wrestler to the fence to inject some urgency, then counter as Woodley tried to fight off the fence. A couple of times he caught Woodley with the folding left elbow he stunned B.J. Penn with—this strike works exceptionally well when the opponent's right glove is moving more towards their centreline in anticipation of the jab.



Convincing wrestlers to run onto large chunks of bone. Counter wrestling 101.

MacDonald also had terrific success with kicks with the ball of the foot. As in the karate front snap kick and round kick, MacDonald snaps these kicks in to wind his opponents and when Woodley woudln't attack off of the fence, MacDonald would dig in a quick kick to the ribs or throw one up under Woodley's chin to add a little more urgency to Woodley's situation.

Robbie Lawler has also been making terrific use of kicks with the ball of the foot—his sankaku-geri or 'triangle kick' against Johny Hendricks was pretty as a picture.

MacDonald won a convincing decision over Woodley after three rounds of control and pinpoint striking.

Finally, MacDonald met Tarec Saffiedine. Another southpaw and a terrific low kicker. Saffiedine's most famous performances were chopping down Nate Marquardt and Hyun Gyu Lim with low kicks, and he ranks among the best low kickers in MMA. MacDonald boxed him up decently, but ate a fair few low kicks as he backed off with his lead elbow projected, stonewall style stance. While it protected him perfectly from punches, Saffiedine is not a great puncher—he's great at punting people's legs as they retreat.



Perfect against a puncher.



Not so great against Saffiedine.

MacDonald knocked Saffiedine out in the third round with a beautiful C-cut combination, using an overhand to lower Saffiedine's head into the line of a lead uppercut.

But you'll notice that Saffiedine is in an orthodox stance. That's because Saffiedine is a switch hitter. He changes from stance to stance in order to low kick from different angles. His boxing is not particularly sharp, and neither he nor Demian Maia use their lead hand to check their orthodox opponents' jabs and make the most of their southpaw position.

That is what makes this title bout at UFC 189 so interesting. MacDonald has fought two southpaws in the year and a bit since he met Lawler, but neither has used the simple method which caused him fits against Lawler. Dodging and moving away from jabs is hard—especially when the opponent is using pressure and feints so well. Sticking your hand on top of theirs is simple by comparison.

One would have to think that as the strategy worked so well for Lawler in their first match, he will continue to hand fight, wait for MacDonald to do something uncomfortable like drop his lead hand or attempt to swing wide, and nail him with the short right hook.

For MacDonald, I would hope to see him open up his kicking game more than he did in the first bout. While Lawler's active guard thwarted MacDonald's efforts on the ground in their first meeting, I would like to see MacDonald go back to his wrestling, if only to move Lawler to the fence and break free so that he is in better position to pound the body. MacDonald is a shark along the fence and his work against B.J. Penn and Tyron Woodley is excellent evidence of that.

Perhaps the best thing about this rematch happening for a title is that the two men get five rounds in which to find their opening or build their momentum. By all means, get excited for McGregor versus Mendes, but don't you dare be one of those people who only tunes in for the main event when a fight as compelling as this is happening moments before it.

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