How one populates their fantasy outfield depends on league roster settings, but either way, we always need to know our breakout stars to fill the back end of our outfield group. When we look at outfielders, typically we look for power or speed, and in some instances a healthy combination of both. You won’t find Kyle Schwarber on this list because frankly, it’s insulting to your intelligence if I write to you why Kyle Schwarber will be a good hitter this season. So instead, here are five less obvious breakout outfielder candidates for the 2017 season that can pay huge dividends if they meet their potential.

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Byron Buxton (MIN)

A player’s ability translating to big league production often falls upon experience and maturation. There is no better example of that than Minnesota Twin Byron Buxton. The 2012 second overall pick (behind Carlos Correa) enters the 2017 season penciled in as the starting center fielder for Minnesota. The biggest obstacle facing Buxton is his poor rate of contact. If you are going to swing at more pitches outside of the strike zone than the average player, you better make Vlad Guerrero type contact, but so far Buxton is missing terribly.

2016 Swing % O-Contact % Z-Contact % Contact % Byron Buxton 46.7 47.5 80.9 67.9 MLB Average 46.5 63.9 86.3 78.2



Buxton’s well below average level of contact prohibits his production opportunities and is obviously the reason for his brutal 35.6 strikeout percentage, inflated thanks to a horrid 15 percent swinging strike percentage.

With all of this going against him, the 23-year-old still managed to swat 10 home runs and steal 10 bags in 92 games. If he progressively improves his contact rate, not only will his average increase, but he has a chance to be a 20 home run, 20 stolen base player that you can have in the mid to late rounds of your draft.

Randal Grichuk (STL)

One dimensional fantasy players come with little complication, but less reward, although it is hard to argue with a potential 30 home runs coming out of one of your final draft picks.

Randal Grichuk, still just 25 years old, hit 24 bombs in 132 games last season, so in a less crowded Cardinals outfield with the departure of Matt Holliday, he can potentially hit 30 without improving any aspect of his game. That’s a solid floor out of someone you can draft in the 17th round or later.

Grichuk swings at seven percent more pitches than the average player, and makes six percent less contact. If he is able to reduce his swinging strike percentage by five percent to even league average, we could be looking at a 35 home run corner outfielder due to increased contact alone. It isn’t 1999 anymore, and 30 home runs is a premium once again. Because of the high floor, and potential for growth, I have Grichuk as a solid power breakout, albeit a one dimensional one.

Keon Broxton (MIL)

In 75 games for the Brew Crew last year, Keon Broxton stole 23 bases (caught only four times), hit nine home runs, and got on base at a 35 percent clip. He only made 13.3 percent soft contact, which in addition to his speed supports his high BABIP of .373.

The downside is Broxton struck out 88 times, good for 36.1 percent of his plate appearances. This was inflated due to an awful 24.5 percent below league average contact on pitches swung at outside of the strike zone. He needs to improve his contact rates if he is going to be a breakout star this year.

The upside in regards to his plate discipline is his walk percentage of 14.8, which was higher than any point in his minor league career. If he is able to improve on his contact and maintain his walk rate, he can increase his on-base percentage, increasing his potential for stolen bases. If he simply maintains his on-base percentage from last year he can steal 40-plus bases, in addition to his ability to hit 20 home runs.

If you buy into Spring Training stats, Broxton is slashing .395/.489/.737/1.226 with three homers and two stolen bases. He will turn 27 in May, entering his prime years, and he can be had in the late rounds.

Hunter Renfroe (SD)

After slaughtering Triple-A pitching in 133 games last year, Hunter Renfroe got a cup of coffee in September to taste the big leagues with the Padres. Because it was such a small sample I won’t harp on the four home runs in just 36 plate appearances, but more-so the fact that he actually had a lower strikeout percentage than at any time in the minor leagues. Granted he did see nearly 50 percent fast balls, but he hit them, and had an 84.5 percent contact percentage in his brief stint with the big club.

Renfroe just turned 25 and will need a larger sample size before we determine what type of major league player he is, but if he reaches his potential as a first-round MLB draft pick, he can offer power and even steal a few bags. He is a pull/center happy hitter so the often unfriendly left center alley of Petco Park may turn some of his power into doubles, but if his showcase last September/October carries forth into this year, he could hit over 20 home runs, 30 doubles, with 10 steals. Due to his small sample size at the major league level Renfroe is the biggest wild card breakout pick for me, but for a last round fantasy draft flier, he is absolutely worth grabbing.

Andrew Benintendi (BOS)

As aging stars of the latest Red Sox title runs begin to fade into the sunset, almost seamlessly their young players are primed and willing to take the flag and run with it. That includes the 2015 seventh overall pick Andrew Benintendi.

Benintendi made his debut with Boston last year, and in 34 games slashed an impressive .295/.359/.476/.835. At 5’10” and 170 pounds he isn’t expected to replace the power void left by David Ortiz, but there have been early talks that he could start the season batting third, a huge vote of confidence from John Farrell.

The 22-year-old benefited from a lofty .367 BABIP, but a lot of that is supported by a below average ground ball rate and excellent 25 percent line drive rate. In his small sample at the major league level he was pull happy, turning 44 percent of his balls-in-play to right field. It’s possible he becomes great friends with the Pesky pole, but unless he changes his approach he won’t be known for peppering the Green Monster.

A patient hitter who swung less but made more contact than the average player last season, if he continues to hit the ball hard, Benintendi can become a high-average doubles hitter. I am thinking a higher ceiling Daniel Murphy before Murphy decided to become a home run hitter. Right now Benintendi is being drafted near the 10th round, and frankly that’s a little too early if you are playing in “OF” leagues versus “LF, CF, RF” set ups, but if he can do what he did last year for a full season it will be well worth the reach. Based on his plate awareness and discipline alone, Benintendi is ahead of the pack as my top breakout outfielder this year.

Statistics provided by Fangraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com. ADP provided by FantasyPros.



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John Hoey is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter at JohnnyCrashMLB.