After almost all exit polls gave Bharatiya Janata Party a thumping majority in the 2019 elections, political analyst Bishal Paul, based on independent research, predicted the election result to be a much closer fight.

According to Paul’s analysis, the BJP will win only 169 seats, and the total tally of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will stand at 200. Compared to this, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is not far behind. Paul projects the UPA to win 197 seats, with the Congress party winning 145 seats on its own, up 101 from the 44 seats it won in 2014.

It's time for me to release my All India stats. Given the exit poll numbers, high chances I'll be massively trolled. But would stick my neck out & wait for 23rd May. Here are the numbers : BJP : 169

NDA : 200

INC : 133

UPA : 197

OTH : 145#GeneralElection2019 #Prediction2019 pic.twitter.com/O3FvAQTqyl — Bishal Paul (@BuiSpeaks) May 19, 2019

Regarding the margin on error, he wrote, “I’m keeping a range of +/- 20-25 seats between the final tally of both UPA as well as NDA.”

Here are some of the projections for key states:

Uttar Pradesh: SP-BSP-RLD 42, BJP 32, Congress 5, Others 1

Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 14, TDP 11

Tamil Nadu: UPA 33, NDA 5, Others 1

West Bengal: TMC 32, Left 1, BJP 5, Congress 4

Maharashtra: NDA 26, UPA 22

Haryana: NDA 5, UPA 4, Others 1

Punjab: NDA 2, UPA 10, Others 1

Rajasthan: BJP 15, Congress 10

Assam: NDA 7, UPA 5, Others 2

Bihar: NDA 24, UPA 16

Karnataka: NDA 15, UPA 13

Odisha: NDA 4, Congress 2, BJP 15

Telangana: TRS 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, BJP 0

Gujarat: BJP 20, Congress 6

Here comes the state wise tally of which party is winning how many seats & the status of both the major coalition. Note : I’m keeping a range of +/- 20-25 seats between the final tally of both UPA as well as NDA. #GeneralElections2019 #Prediction2019 pic.twitter.com/aJ4jOEmQkg — Bishal Paul (@BuiSpeaks) May 19, 2019

Paul also explained the mixed methodology he used for the analysis.

Here’s the methodology followed to derive at this analysis. For all those who might be interested in knowing the basis of these numbers, given the fact that it’s contrary to most of the exit poll numbers shown across channels. #GeneralElections2019 #Prediction2019 pic.twitter.com/LscZoSeCOL — Bishal Paul (@BuiSpeaks) May 19, 2019

Also Read: Axis My India Takes Down Seats & Vote Share Predictions After Multiple Errors Reported in India Today-Axis Exit Poll