btc_uzr



Offline



Activity: 476

Merit: 250





let's have some fun







Sr. MemberActivity: 476Merit: 250let's have some fun Re: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com September 13, 2013, 03:19:55 PM

Last edit: September 14, 2013, 03:33:23 PM by btc_uzr #9242 Quote from: qiuness on September 13, 2013, 02:03:11 PM looking at thegenesisblock i did some math and things are looking grim..wanted to know what you guys think about it.



Given facts:

- With an initial mining date of October

- Difficulty ~140 mil (now 110 + 30% over the next week)

- 1 Jupiter @ 400 MH/s

- BTC@140$



Results. This scenario with an increase of 77% until march next year will not break even!

Considering that in October we will most likely see 40-50%/11day increase since KNC is shipping, November and December mark the months of newcomers such as (CoinTerra and HashFEst)

The likelihood that the difficulty will taper off until march 2014 is next to 0.



Maybe i`m not seeing all the sides of the cube, but it is not looking good.

With BTC @ 180$ will have profited ~400$



You should modify your calculations to match reality.



Let's say 26th is day1 [1] and diff is 140mil. KnC might deliver until 15th of October ~2-2.5PH [2], then assume that in this time frame blocks pass by fast until last KNC device is online (17th of October) and diff is finally adjusted to the according level of hashrate. So a possible total of upto 3,5PH/s results in diff of ~500M, maybe at October 20th in place. Then it will slab and stuck at this level I guess.



Maybe bitfury increases it a little further until end of October, but not dramatically. Then I expect that it remains at this level it reaches at the end of October (maybe +10%) until KNC starts November delivery. Then next jump seems to be in December when vmc or others start delivery through out January and February [3]. Then KNC next generation appears in March [4].





[1]

Cloudhashing ordered from KNC and their FAQ states "A2: We expect mining for September contracts to start by 26th September 2013 (...)"



[2]



[3]



[4]

"We will then release our new generation of devices, which will begin shipping in March 2014"



*edit:

-have forgotten November delivery from KNC, added some other thoughts as well

-added new srcs You should modify your calculations to match reality.Let's say 26th is day1 [1] and diff is 140mil. KnC might deliver until 15th of October ~2-2.5PH [2], then assume that in this time frame blocks pass by fast until last KNC device is online (17th of October) and diff is finally adjusted to the according level of hashrate. So a possible total of upto 3,5PH/s results in diff of ~500M, maybe at October 20th in place. Then it will slab and stuck at this level I guess.Maybe bitfury increases it a little further until end of October, but not dramatically. Then I expect that it remains at this level it reaches at the end of October (maybe +10%) until KNC starts November delivery. Then next jump seems to be in December when vmc or others start delivery through out January and February [3]. Then KNC next generation appears in March [4].[1] https://www.cloudhashing.com/frequently-asked-questions Cloudhashing ordered from KNC and their FAQ states "A2: We expect mining for September contracts to start by 26th September 2013 (...)"[2] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.msg3125451#msg3125451 [3] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820 [4] https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-24 "We will then release our new generation of devices, which will begin shipping in March 2014"*edit:-have forgotten November delivery from KNC, added some other thoughts as well-added new srcs ..and Thou shalt spread the coin in the name of cryptography for eternity

Mota



Offline



Activity: 805

Merit: 1002







LegendaryActivity: 805Merit: 1002 Re: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com September 13, 2013, 03:36:44 PM #9244 Quote from: qiuness on September 13, 2013, 02:03:11 PM looking at thegenesisblock i did some math and things are looking grim..wanted to know what you guys think about it.



Given facts:

- With an initial mining date of October

- Difficulty ~140 mil (now 110 + 30% over the next week)

- 1 Jupiter @ 400 MH/s

- BTC@140$



Results. This scenario with an increase of 77% until march next year will not break even!

Considering that in October we will most likely see 40-50%/11day increase since KNC is shipping, November and December mark the months of newcomers such as (CoinTerra and HashFEst)

The likelihood that the difficulty will taper off until march 2014 is next to 0.



Maybe i`m not seeing all the sides of the cube, but it is not looking good.

With BTC @ 180$ will have profited ~400$

again with this bs...

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/9b3c1f63cb

use this as a reference if you really want to calculate your earnings in dollar for the next 3 months. after that it won't work with this calculation anymore, but this is pretty much the worst case imo...

(notice the increased power cost for germany, another 1k for VAT, 250 psu and 150 shipping cost extra AND only 400 gh/s AND $ per btc at 100 AND a pretty much unlikely doubling of the hashrate from now to october)

NOW:

let's do the same with 500 gh/s and 850W (850 should be max. with OC (which would, again, be more gh/s)):

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/9dd2b831fc



I am actually more than willing to put my money where my mouth is if that stops this fucking stupid posts about roi shit. anyone interested can pm me for a nice little bet on roi of knc's jupiter delivered until mid october. again with this bs...use this as a reference if you really want to calculate your earnings in dollar for the next 3 months. after that it won't work with this calculation anymore, but this is pretty much the worst case imo...(notice the increased power cost for germany, another 1k for VAT, 250 psu and 150 shipping cost extra AND only 400 gh/s AND $ per btc at 100 AND a pretty much unlikely doubling of the hashrate from now to october)NOW:let's do the same with 500 gh/s and 850W (850 should be max. with OC (which would, again, be more gh/s)):I am actually more than willing to put my money where my mouth is if that stops this fucking stupid posts about roi shit. anyone interested can pm me for a nice little bet on roi of knc's jupiter delivered until mid october.

rizzman



Offline



Activity: 196

Merit: 100









Full MemberActivity: 196Merit: 100 Re: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com September 13, 2013, 03:41:58 PM #9246 Quote from: qiuness on September 13, 2013, 02:03:11 PM looking at thegenesisblock i did some math and things are looking grim..wanted to know what you guys think about it.



Given facts:

- With an initial mining date of October

- Difficulty ~140 mil (now 110 + 30% over the next week)

- 1 Jupiter @ 400 MH/s

- BTC@140$



Results. This scenario with an increase of 77% until march next year will not break even!

Considering that in October we will most likely see 40-50%/11day increase since KNC is shipping, November and December mark the months of newcomers such as (CoinTerra and HashFEst)

The likelihood that the difficulty will taper off until march 2014 is next to 0.



Maybe i`m not seeing all the sides of the cube, but it is not looking good.

With BTC @ 180$ will have profited ~400$



I'm actually counting on difficulty to start tapering off for a while at around 2.201 Billion by February, and here is why.



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0



The thread creator did a pretty good job of estimating the total worst case scenario based on all announced vendors which are suppose to come online and at what time and based off of this information, the genesis block looks to be accurate up until around mid February. I think this is an pretty accurate assessment but even with this bleak of an outlook, any KNC's delivered before Oct 15 should still make ROI (Albeit a low profit) or at-least get close to it.



The only possibilities it does not take into account is

1. Shadow corps which could theoretically exist that start dumping massive amounts of computing power into the network between now and December.

2. Failures by any of the other ASIC vendors to deliver on time.



Both of these would have a significant impact on ROI, however we just down know... I am betting at least one of KNC's competitors is going to be delayed.



But as someone else also mentioned earlier on in the forum, by November they're will still be people willing to buy the hardware used. I personally depending on the outlook intend on selling my Jupiter's around the end of November and using those funds as my ROI/profit, which will then go into the next gen hardware around march.

I'm actually counting on difficulty to start tapering off for a while at around 2.201 Billion by February, and here is why.The thread creator did a pretty good job of estimating the total worst case scenario based on all announced vendors which are suppose to come online and at what time and based off of this information, the genesis block looks to be accurate up until around mid February. I think this is an pretty accurate assessment but even with this bleak of an outlook, any KNC's delivered before Oct 15still make ROI (Albeit a low profit) or at-least get close to it.The only possibilities it does not take into account is1. Shadow corps which could theoretically exist that start dumping massive amounts of computing power into the network between now and December.2. Failures by any of the other ASIC vendors to deliver on time.Both of these would have a significant impact on ROI, however we just down know... I am betting at least one of KNC's competitors is going to be delayed.But as someone else also mentioned earlier on in the forum, by November they're will still be people willing to buy the hardware used. I personally depending on the outlook intend on selling my Jupiter's around the end of November and using those funds as my ROI/profit, which will then go into the next gen hardware around march.