Brian Lyman

Montgomery Advertiser

In most other states, a party seeing three major leaders forced out of office – two due to convictions or plea deals – would face a troubled future.

In Alabama, that’s not a certainty.

To be sure, Democrats and Republicans going to voters in 2018 will have to grapple with one of the most tumultuous periods in the state’s never-boring political history. In a little less than a year, Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley; House Speaker Mike Hubbard and Chief Justice Roy Moore, all Republicans, lost their jobs. The drama would seem to provide the medicine the ailing Democratic Party needs.

But other factors might dilute the potency of the issue. After two disastrous statewide elections, Alabama Democrats are in rebuilding mode and have been slow to talk GOP problems. Republicans, meanwhile, are distancing themselves from Bentley and Hubbard (if not necessarily Moore, who remains popular within the party) while arguing that the scandals proved the strength of ethics laws approved by the GOP-controlled Legislature since 2010.

“Ethics reform was passed by the Republican majority,” said House Majority Leader Nathaniel Ledbetter, R-Rainsville. “They’ve put these bills in law. Regardless of whether you’re Republican or Democrat, if you go across the lines set forth, there’s accountability for it.”

Democratic leaders say Republicans allowed corruption to take place, and dismiss the idea that the GOP should get credit for the downfalls.

“As a whole, the Republicans have governed for their own benefit, to fatten their own pockets,” Alabama Democratic Party Chairwoman Nancy Worley said last week. “And they have broken every promise to the voters when they ran.”

Democratic legislators are more cautious, saying they think bread-and-butter issues – such as education and the economy – will resonate more with voters than ethics.

“How many jobs does Bentley resigning create?” said House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels, D-Huntsville. “How many jobs did Hubbard’s conviction create? Really, there have been only three jobs created.”

Ethics vs. pocketbooks

Despite the scandals, the Alabama Republican Party’s dominance seems unlikely to fade in 2018. The GOP holds 72 of 105 House seats; 26 of 35 Senate seats and large numbers of district attorney and circuit judge seats.

Democrats will have to improve on their feeble 2014 effort to challenge that. The party ran candidates in just 52 of the state’s 105 House districts and 22 of the 35 Senate districts. Most of those weren't competitive. Only two Senate and five House races had margins of 10 points or fewer. The best Democrats could do on statewide offices was an 18-point loss by Joe Hubbard, the party's nominee for attorney general, to incumbent Luther Strange.

The Democrats also face internal divisions between Worley and the Alabama Democratic Reform Caucus, which criticizes what it sees as inertia at the top of the party.

If there’s any comfort, it’s that the party doesn’t have much further to fall. Democrats hope that court-ordered redistricting will buoy candidates next year, and say President Donald Trump's election motivated their base.

Organizers also think the scandals provide an opportunity for the party to re-establish its credentials with the electorate. Sheila Gilbert, the chairwoman of the Alabama Democratic Reform Caucus, said last week voters’ “trust has been betrayed.”

“We have already had a great number of people here, people that are emerging with new interest,” she said. “This just prompts them to say, ‘Let’s get rid of that old stuff and start something new.’”

To do that, though, Democrats will have to make their voices heard and offer choices to voters. Many Democrats remain frustrated by the party’s slow reaction to the Hubbard scandal (party leaders moved more quickly as news about Bentley snowballed earlier this month) and the lack of recruitment. Worley said she did not expect Democrats to field candidates in every district.

“I do expect to see candidates running throughout the state, not only because of the redistricting issue but also because of the fact that voters are going to be looking for change,” she said.

Incumbent Democrats weren’t dismissive of ethics issues but saw more advantage in talking about things closer to voters’ lives, such as education, infrastructure and removing the sales tax off groceries.

“Our schools are horrible, our communities are going down, our infrastructure needs upgrading,” said Sen. Bobby Singleton, D-Greensboro. “Democrats have been putting forward measures to help.”

Singleton, though, said ethics should be on voters’ minds and made an allusion to "Storming the State House," Hubbard’s book about the 2010 GOP landslide, which occurred in part due to promises of ethics reform.

“When a group comes in says they’re storming the State House and say they’re going to clean up corruption, and when I see top offices are plagued with corruption, it makes one wonder where the state is going,” he said.

Taking credit

GOP leaders argue that the focus should be on the fact that Bentley and Hubbard no longer hold office. The reasons, they say, are GOP-led efforts to strengthen the ethics law and, later, to impeach Bentley over misuse of state funds.

“The big message is it was Republicans who started the methodical process of impeachment; it’s Republicans who pushed it; it’s Republicans who policed our own house,” said Terry Lathan, chairwoman of the Alabama Republican Party.

Bentley, for instance, pleaded guilty last week to a misdemeanor charge of failing to file a campaign finance report, a violation of a law approved by the Republican-controlled Legislature in 2011. (The second violation, using campaign funds for personal use, fell under a statute last amended in 1997, when the Democrats were in charge). Hubbard voted for changes to the state’s ethics laws that played a key role in his conviction on 12 felony ethics charges last year.

Rep. Ed Henry, R-Hartselle, who filed the articles of impeachment against Bentley in the House last year, said he did not expect the Republican brand to suffer in the state.

“Regardless of what Bentley does or anyone else, it’s not going to cause the people of Alabama to back a socialist welfare party, which is what the Democrats are,” he said.

Moore, who was not convicted of a crime, still commands a sizeable constituency in the state GOP and could mount a political campaign next year. Lathan said the chief justice’s issues “were on a different rail” from Bentley and Hubbard. Still, Republican legislative leaders last week were less inclined to discuss legal mechanics than to move on from the ordeal.

“This body wants to show the people we have got things in order, we’ve cleaned house and we’re moving forward,” said Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh, R-Anniston.

Lathan and Republican legislators last week said that they hoped voters would see them as individuals.

“If they’re going to pass judgment on us, I would ask them to take a look at each individual rather than painting us with a broad brush,” said House Speaker Mac McCutcheon, R-Monrovia.

But Democrats say the scandals have tarnished the Republican Party.

“I’ll let people judge individuals,” Daniels said. “(But) they made a promise of cleaning up Montgomery, and I think something backfired.”