Simply put…there was major indications that we are getting dark!Dany, Jonsa, and political!Jon in this last season. The major signs and subtle nuances were extremely consistent. The only real complaints I’ve seen is the “flavor” of some of Jon’s actions in episode 1. It’s an understandable criticism but I really think we were fed quite well for a premiere and a TON of plot boxes were checked off and done so quickly enough that the “there’s no enough time!” argument against the Big 3 is really starting to ring hollow.

I think I’ll work largely going theory by theory here and showing what makes them all even more likely than ever.





Big 3 Jonsa Fan Theories

1.) dark!Dany

If you don’t know already…the dark!Dany theory is the idea that Daenerys Targaryen’s arc has been tell the story of an emerging antagonist - principally with Jon Snow as her main political foe.

This is probably the easiest of the Big 3 to identify in Winterfell. Right off the bat, we get a glimpse. The Northerners don’t approve of Dany, very clearly. She gets satisfaction when her dragons flyover and terrify the bejeebers out of the commoners.

Charming.

We move on to the terrifically uncomfortable first meeting with Sansa…and we all know how this went.

I think EC did a really good job conveying the air of superiority and her dissatisfaction with Sansa’s response.

Dany doesn’t have much a poker face. And it’s shown to be contentious for good reason.

This is the first time she’s ever been to WF and she expects to be called “My Queen” like everybody is Jorah Mormont. That’s just not how it works. The first town hall meeting with the North goes even worse than the initial greeting.

“What exactly do dragons eat anyway?”

“Whatever they want.”

Bingo bango. If EVER you needed a money quote point to Dany both 1) being oblivious to what it means to be a good politician; and 2) being an entitled ruler who believes the rules don’t apply to her…this is it.

And it mirrors what we’ve seen before with regard to the dragons.

Ring a bell?

Then we get maybe the darkest Dany moment of the episode. Well…at least one of the top 10 darkest Dany moments of the episode.

“If she can’t respect me…”



Then what, Dany?

Her subtle head shake before she says it conveys a “don’t you get it, Jon?” She follows it up with a very intentional narrowing of her eyes…she’s letting Jon fill in the blanks of what she means here. It’s impossible to ignore the implications.

Notice that Jon doesn’t look too thrilled and gets yet more confirmation that he is walking a very, very fine line.

Next, we get the culmination of a lot of offseason speculation that, as a Jonsa/dark!Dany/political!Jon believer…was told was NEVER going to become an issue: the burning of Randyll and Dickon Tarly.

Let’s recap…

Wonderful advice. Then..

We know how this turned out. And we were shown pretty emphatically that, yes, burning a father and son alive when they are prisoners of war is going to be viewed negatively by a family member of that father and son and it’s probably going to have an effect on how a region feels about you when your father started a war by deciding to burn a father and son alive (or burning a father and strangling a son, as in the books).

So she bumps into Sam. Because Sam’s connection to Jorah does, again, matter. Sam happens to mention he belongs to House Tarly…and Dany’s demeanor gets noticeably stiffer and more steely.

Let’s unpack this.

Randyll Tarly wasn’t executed for being a bad father. He wasn’t executed as a form of justice for “betraying” House Tyrell. He was executed specifically because he would not bend the knee. Bending the knee would have allowed Randyll Tarly to have the exact same lifestyle he’d had before he’d bent the knee. So, again, this was not an act of justice. It was an act of dominance. Unequivocally.

Then…she reveals that Dickon Tarly was executed likewise for:

…standing by his dad. Please, if you have belief in Daenerys as a hero at this point, consider the extraordinary meaning of her words here.

The Loot Train Battle was a temporary triumph and a long term disaster for Dany. There’s not enough food to eat and she executed the members of maybe the greatest non-great house (in stature) in Westeros, people that could have at the very least been valuable hostages. And it’s hurting her now even double because the surviving son of the man she executed is best friends with the man she wants to romance and who holds her only chance for political cohesiveness in her newly “acquired” kingdom. What a complete and total disaster for her. Rightfully so.

2.) political!Jon

I’m going to say that political!Jon is probably the hardest of the Big 3 to identify in the episode…but then again it was hard to identify last season too. The difference is that I’ve actually been seeing much more popular speculation that Jon isn’t necessarily as blind and foolish as he might be leading on.

First, let me remind everyone of what I think is basically the central thesis of political!Jon:

political!Jon is the theory that Jon’s main objective for the entirety of the time after he left Winterfell was centered on obtaining Daenerys as an ally so that her resources could be redirected to the Army of the Dead. This objective was the primary reason for every significant action he took in Season 7, culminating in Jon determining that he must bend the knee in order to get Daenerys’ help in the North.

What I’m seeing from Jon, maybe more than I even anticipated from Season 7 is that his actions are also colored by a distinct emotion that seems to be increasing as the “game” goes on: fear.

Yes, Jon is afraid of what Dany might be capable of doing. To his war efforts. To his home. To his loved ones. So now, I’m practically ready to amend my central thesis of political!Jon to read:

political!Jon is the theory that Jon’s main objective for the entirety of the time after he left Winterfell was centered on obtaining Daenerys as an ally so that her resources could be redirected to the Army of the Dead. This objective was the primary reason for every significant action he took in Season 7, culminating in Jon determining that he must bend the knee in order to get Daenerys’ help in the North - and an increasing realization that, at all costs, Jon must never appear to be a threat to Daenerys’ quest for power else he and his loved ones would become her enemy and he is not powerful enough to stop her.



It’s startling in a way. He truly is Torrhen Stark in this scenario. Think back to what Jon’s seen:

A terrifying first meeting where he’s told that by calling himself a king, he’s in open rebellion against Daenerys…

And asserted her belief that she is entitled to his home…

She leveraged his fear of destruction to demand that he bend the knee…

He watched her berate her Hand for the crime of not wanting his family dead quite enough for her liking…

He had to talk her out of using her dragons on King’s Landing…

He knows how she views her “children” as her source of “specialness” and that she craves being viewed as special…

Because she told him exactly that…

And he knows that even after SEEING the Night King, she gave him no indication that she was willing to halt her war efforts in the south to help save the world unless Cersei agreed. (she also stupidly believed Cersei)

So we get to the first town hall meeting…and Jon drops this incredible truth bomb…

Act surprised if you want…but he’s only confirming what he’s said the whole damn time…

He declared in front of EVERYBODY that he could not protect the North while holding onto his crown. He doesn’t care about Dany getting her chair. He doesn’t care about her war against Cersei. BUT because of who Dany revealed herself to be throughout the Season 7 (very powerful and very volatile) Jon’s learned that being her enemy is an untenable position.

Follow this thought process if you’re still skeptical:

Did Jon believe his crown was important?

Yes, he refused to give it up during the season because of exactly that. It does matter.

Why would he change his mind then?

Theory 1: His relationship with Dany has shown him that titles don’t matter. Ok, well that’s hogwash because now Dany is threatening Sansa for not respecting her enough…and Jon himself was threatened in Season 7 for not bowing to her and calling her Queen.

or

Theory 2: Jon is intimately aware of how important titles are to Daenerys. And that’s exactly why he has to make her believe he could never be threat to her. He knows the things she’s said; the things she’s threatened. He knows how her priorities…else the Dragonpit summit wouldn’t have been necessary to get Dany’s agreement to help in the North. Jon is terrified of the idea of becoming her enemy because he knows how incapable Dany is at seeing things any way other than black and white.

Considering Jon explicitly states that having the crown prevents him protecting the North…I know which theory I find more plausible. You can make up your own mind on that.

This explains Jon’s behavior, I think, better than any other idea. Jon fears Dany. He fears that speaking out against Dany exposes people he cares about. He needs them to realize that this is a dangerous situation. And I think they get that - but I’m not quite sure yet that they understand the amount of destruction that Dany has openly threatened to exact on her enemies.

Sansa is more outspoken now and more confident. When Jon jokes with Arya about Sansa thinking she’s smarter than everyone, he very obviously remembers back when Sansa said that Dany would try to force his political submission before he left for Dragonstone. And that’s exactly what happened. He told Tyrion that Sansa is smart. It’s not a secret that he knows Sansa is smart. But, in my opinion, his fear is centered on Sansa being outspoken to the point where she enrages Dany and puts herself at risk…which is EXACTLY what happened…

This is precisely what Jon fears.

“I’ll protect you, I promise” and

“I had a choice: keep my crown or protect the North.”



His submission is his way of preserving lives.

What’s the best indication that Jon fears Dany? It’s the R+L=J reveal.

So Jon’s finding this out for the first time…his initial reaction is disgust. It took Jon 16 seconds to say “I’m so sorry”. He was at a loss for words. And then Jon has to deflect, deflect, deflect.

His next words? Do they address the problem? Or do they display the heart of Jon’s problem? The latter.

This is a big nothing from Jon. The reality is that this war has put Jon in an absolutely terrible situation and he hates it. But what “war”? Hasn’t he pledged himself in TWO wars?

Why would defeating the NK be in any way connected to Dany killing the Tarlys in the other war? The answer? Jon’s only doing what he’s doing and not openly confronting the realities of who Dany is because he absolutely believes that he MUST delay addressing this situation because raising issues with Dany when the war with the NK is so near creates havoc that Jon can’t even comprehend.

He’s terrified of addressing what’s happened to Sam’s family and he’s probably not even sure what to do next.

To Sam’s credit, he cuts right through the bullshit and presses Jon on the “rightness” of Dany’s actions: “would you have done it?”

I’m not going to go into some silly discussion about “well gosh, hanging Olly is exactly the same as executing the Tarlys”. They’re not the same, but it doesn’t really matter because according to the writers - executing prisoners of war for not bending the knee is very very bad and significantly different than hanging someone who stabbed you in the chest. And we all know Jon Snow wouldn’t execute someone for the simple crime of not bending the knee and recognizing him as a monarch. Every single shallow thing Jon says back is countered immediately by Sam because we know that Sam’s right.

“I wasn’t a king”

“But you were. You’ve always been.”

“I gave up my crown, Sam…”



JON WALKS AWAY AFTER TELLING SAM HE GAVE UP HIS CROWN.

He’s visibly upset about it. Sam tells him that Dany executed his family…and Jon feels powerless to do anything about it. He tries to walk away when telling Sam he gave up his crown.

Ok, so, if titles don’t matter, then why does having a crown or not having a crown determine whether Jon can say whether he would or wouldn’t have made the same choice Dany made? Jon is saying it’s his not his place to say because he doesn’t have a crown anymore - just after saying that titles and crowns don’t matter.

They do matter. And Jon knows this. But he can’t say it. Not yet.

The last bit of powerful political!Jon evidence is in Jon’s reaction to being told he’s the rightful heir. That, in Sam’s opinion, Jon should be the King and Dany should not by Queen. (gonna go ahead and say this means Sam’s not going to be in favor of Jon-Dany marriage…)

Jon’s first thoughts are to step towards Sam and express anger that Ned lied all those years. Then Sam explains that Ned did it to protect him. And that Jon is the TRUE King. And this is where Jon’s episode-long poker face starts to really fall apart. Jon’s backing away. Stunned. Not totally unexpected…but it’s his first words that REALLY paint the picture.

He’s immediately terrified of the talk of succession. If Jon is SO SURE that titles don’t matter. If he’s SO SURE that she’s a good queen. If he’s SO SURE that “it doesn’t matter” - why are these his thoughts. Why is he panicked? Why is he unable to make eye contact? He learns that his birth wasn’t anything like he thought and his first real words about it jump to what it means for him politically.

Sam says what he thinks: she shouldn’t be the Queen. And this evokes terror in Jon’s mind…

It’s treason. His birth status would be viewed as treason. If Dany is a just queen. If she believes in the rule of law. Then Jon SHOULD be the King and Dany should not be the Queen. it’s the line of succession. But…again…titles DO matter. They matter to Daenerys above all. Jon has spent the entire time since he bent the knee trying to craft an image of himself as a total non-threat.

He had made the best decision for the safety of his people.

“When you play the Game of Thrones; you win or you die.”

Jon had very intentionally played the Game of Thrones by not playing the game of thrones. It was the only way for him to survive. Now, The Truth of his birth throws his entire plan out the window. He’s scared. He’s backing away. He’s panicking. Because he knows what it means. He realized at some point that when it comes to Daenerys Stormborn or House Targaryen, you bend the knee and live or you do not, and you die.

Daenerys essentially uses “you win or you die” as her motto. Jon chose the option that Mance refused. He bent the knee. He became Torrhen Stark. Except now imagine he is exactly the threat to Dany’s reign that he tried so tirelessly to avoid.

It’s so clear in Jon’s reactions that he’s afraid. It’s so clear in what he said that he came to view his crown as a threat to the safety of his people BECAUSE titles matter so deeply to Dany. RLJ just exposed ALL of that because his reaction is utter terror.

I can’t even get to the Jonsa stuff because this got so long…but I’m going to end with the central question of the episode and one that Jon doesn’t answer, mostly because of the terrible implications of the question itself.

No. She wouldn’t. And he’s known it all along. And The Truth of that is what scares him most of all.