President Donald Trump rallies with supporters in Manchester, New Hampshire, February 10, 2020. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

As John McCormack outlined earlier this afternoon on the Corner, a new poll out today from Quinnipiac University surveys registered voters in three swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — to see how each leading Democratic-primary candidate would fare against President Trump. In Wisconsin, Trump leads all six Democrats included in the survey. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, every Democrat has an advantage over Trump.


Let’s take the matchups one at a time by state. In Wisconsin, where Trump performs exceedingly well, he has the largest lead over Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar, 50 percent to her 39 percent. He’s ahead of Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren by ten points (51 percent to 41 percent). Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg perform the same against Trump here, each achieving 41 percent support to Trump’s 49 percent. The contest narrows only a bit if Trump were facing Bernie Sanders, whom he leads 50 percent to 43 percent, or Joe Biden, whom he leads 49 percent to 42 percent.

In the polling of Pennsylvania voters, Trump looks a bit worse off. Here, Biden leads him 50 percent to 42 percent, Klobuchar 49 percent to his 42 percent, and Bloomberg 48 percent to 42 percent. The president does slightly better when facing the more progressive Democrats: Sanders has 48 percent support compared with Trump’s 44 percent, Buttigieg is at 47 percent to Trump’s 43 percent, and Warren gets just 47 percent to Trump’s 44 percent.


Though Trump falls behind each Democrat with Michigan voters, too, the matchups are much closer. Sanders has the biggest lead at five points (48 percent to 43 percent). Bloomberg, meanwhile, gets 47 percent support to Trump’s 42 percent, and Biden does just a bit worse, with 47 percent support to Trump’s 43 percent. The contests with the last three candidates are even closer. Warren has 45 percent to Trump’s 43 percent, and Buttigieg and Klobuchar perform the same at 45 percent, with Trump trailing them by just one point.

In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in all three of these states, albeit by narrow margins. The numbers indicating a close race in Pennsylvania and Michigan might be a bit concerning for his supporters, but his large leads in Wisconsin are a warning sign for Democrats.