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In Canadian political history, there have only been 11 female premiers and just one has gone on to win a second mandate — which didn’t last long.

(And four provinces — New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan — have never had a female leader.)

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Rachel Notley is the most recent provincial leader to fail to secure a second mandate from the electorate, with her loss Tuesday to Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party in Alberta.

Given that female premiers are so rare, and their re-election record so poor, the question arises whether a politicians’ gender plays a role in their success or failure.

Melanee Thomas, a professor at the University of Calgary, has studied whether female premiers tend to fare poorly in subsequent elections because they are more likely to be chosen as “sacrificial lambs” to lead parties in crisis.

She found that less than half of female premiers could be said to have led parties in crisis. Only Pauline Marois’ PQ minority and Rita Johnston’s short-lived Social Credit government in B.C. truly fit the bill, though she notes Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal party was in decline. That means the “sacrificial lamb” theory couldn’t fully explain the poor electoral results of female premiers across the board.