This goes beyond NATO, as well. Russia has made a number of veiled threats toward both Finland and Sweden in recent years, as both countries becoming increasingly interested in the collective security of the alliance. If Swedish officials decide to join the military bloc, "we will interpret that as an additional threat for Russia and we will think about how to eliminate this threat," Russian President Vladimir Putin told TASS earlier in June 2017. On the same day in June as Russia's unsafe intercept of the American RC-135U, the Swedish Air Force said one of their signals intelligence aircraft had a similar run-in with a Flanker.

“We are treating these as exercises as such, nothing more, but of course, on the local level, some risks are here,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Raimundas Karoblis said during a visit to the United States to meet with his American counterparts earlier in 2017. “We need to also be prepared for surprises … they could, say, go to a different direction than planned, and there also may be some tests of how the border protection is working, etc.”

It’s very likely that these encounters will continue in the coming months, with both Russia and NATO’s continuing a busy exercise schedule. Most notably, approximately 100,000 Russian and Belorussian troops are set to take part in a massive war game along their boundary with NATO this fall. These Zapad exercises happen every four years and pit the two countries against a notional large scale opponent, largely seen as a stand-in for NATO. The name simply means "West" in Russian.

There may also be an additional surge in intercepts as the Kremlin seeks to retaliate indirectly for American activities in Syria. In spite of international condemnation of Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad and his regime, Moscow has continued to support the leader in exchange for strategic access to the country’s territory, an issue we have discussed in detail in the past. In nearly three weeks, the U.S. military has shot down two Iranian-made Shaheed 129 drones and a Syrian Air Force Su-22 Fitter attack jet. The confrontations have many worried the United States is inching closer to a broader and more dangerous confrontation with the government in Damascus and its Russian and Iranian allies.

In April 2017, following a reported chemical weapons attack on innocent civilians, the U.S. Navy did fire a number of Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles at Syria’s Shayrat Air Base. However, by most accounts, American officials went to great lengths to avoid hitting Russian personnel at the base. After the Su-22 shoot down, Moscow took a hard-line stance, suggesting, at least initially, that it would effectively include Syrian forces under the protective umbrella of its own fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles.

With all this in mind, the Baltic Sea definitely seems like a potential hot spot to keep an eye on, whether the activities are related to what’s going on in Europe or developments further afield.

UPDATE- 2:15pm EST: New details have emerged showing the intercepting aircraft was actually an F-16AM from the Royal Netherlands Air Force. The Dutch fighter also had an impressive combat load of four AIM-120 and two AIM-9 air-to-air missiles.

UPDATE- 8:20am PST 6/22/2017: Apparently Polish Vipers did the intercept yesterday. The confusion came from a archive photo ran by the AP showing the a Dutch F-16 through a airliner cabin window.

Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com