If the playoffs began today, the Cincinnati Bengals would be the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the Denver Broncos would be its No. 2 seed. The New England Patriots -- who had a 98 percent chance to earn a first-round bye two weeks ago -- would be the AFC’s No. 3 seed.

What are the chances those teams enter the playoffs in that order, and which team is most likely to emerge from the crowded AFC to represent the conference in the Super Bowl?

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Patriots remain the favorite to earn home-field advantage and represent the AFC in Super Bowl 50. New England has a 42 percent chance to leapfrog the Bengals and Broncos for the No. 1 seed and a 35 percent chance to win the conference.

The Bengals are the next-most likely No. 1 seed (32 percent) and AFC representative (30 percent), followed by the Broncos (26 percent for No. 1 seed, 20 percent to make the Super Bowl).

Despite its recent slide, New England is projected to be the strongest team in the AFC going forward. The Patriots’ offense has been stymied by injuries; their four worst single-game offense performances of the season have come in their last four games. Yet, with a number of players expected to return and a healthy Tom Brady, New England is projected to be FPI’s top offense going forward.

The bigger reason New England is favored, however, is it does not have to face any of the major contenders in the coming weeks. The Patriots’ final four games are against the Texans, Titans, Jets and Dolphins. FPI projects that New England has at least a 56 percent chance to win in each of its remaining games and a 21 percent chance to win out and finish 14-2.

The Bengals and Broncos face off in Week 16. The Broncos also have to travel to play the Steelers in Week 15 in a game which FPI favors the home team, resulting in an average projection of about 2.3 more wins this season. The Bengals have an average projection of 2.7 more wins, and the Patriots have an average projection of about 2.8 more wins.

Overall, the most likely AFC Championship Games are Bengals versus Patriots (27 percent likely), Broncos versus Patriots (19 percent likely), Broncos versus Bengals (15 percent likely) and Chiefs versus Patriots (6 percent likely).

In the NFC, the projections are more clear. There is a 54 percent chance the NFC Championship Game features the Cardinals versus the Panthers and an 81 percent chance that one of those teams represents the NFC in Super Bowl 50.

NFL Football Power Index Team FPI Projected

Wins Chance to Win

Division Chance to Make

Playoffs Chance

to Win SB Panthers 6.0 14.9* 100.0% 100.0% 18.6% Cardinals 8.7 12.9 98.8% 100.0% 24.5% Patriots 7.6 12.8 99.8% 100.0% 17.5% Bengals 7.1 12.7 98.7% 100.0% 14.9% Broncos 3.0 12.3 92.4% 99.3% 9.0% Packers 3.6 10.3 68.5% 95.0% 2.8% Chiefs 5.8 10.1 7.6% 91.9% 3.3% Seahawks 7.1 9.8 1.2% 90.7% 5.0% Vikings -0.4 9.8 31.6% 82.3% 0.5% Steelers 5.9 9.5 1.4% 51.1% 1.4% Jets 2.8 9.2 0.2% 33.5% 0.4% Bills 2.4 8.4 0.0% 22.2% 0.2% Colts 1.1 8.4 68.1% 68.3% 1.0% Texans 0.0 8.0 31.4% 32.6% 0.2% Buccaneers -2.8 7.9 0.0% 22.1% 0.1% Falcons -1.4 7.8 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% Bears -2.0 7.0 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% Eagles -0.2 7.0 50.9% 50.9% 0.4% Dolphins -1.1 6.9 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Giants -2.2 6.6 19.7% 19.9% 0.1% Raiders -2.8 6.5 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Redskins -4.2 6.4 21.2% 21.4% 0.1% Lions -2.7 6.1 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Saints -4.4 5.8 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Jaguars -4.5 5.7 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Rams -5.4 5.6 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Cowboys -2.5 5.6 8.2% 8.3% 0.0% Ravens -0.7 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49ers -8.5 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Chargers -3.7 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Titans -4.7 4.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Browns -6.9 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *27% chance to go 16-0

For a full explanation on how the FPI is put together, please read this explainer. For more background, you can also read this Q&A with the developers of the FPI. The offensive, defensive and special teams breakdown can also be found here.

Matchups to watch in Week 14

Top Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

* Bengals: 61 percent chance to win or tie (3.6 predicted point differential)

* Highest pregame matchup quality of the week (86.7 on 0-to-100 scale)

* Matchup of two of the top six teams in FPI

* Steelers: about a 77 percent chance to make the playoffs if they win, about a 35 percent chance if they lose (now at 51 percent, sixth in the AFC)

Monday Night Football: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins

* Dolphins: 62 percent chance to win (4.0 predicted point differential)

* Giants: About a 34 percent chance to win the NFC East if they win, about a 13 percent chance if they lose (now at 20 percent, third in division)

Game with playoff impact: Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles

* Bills: 50.4 percent chance to win (0.2 predicted point differential)

* Eagles: about a 62 percent chance to make the playoffs if they win, about a 38 percent chance if they lose (now at 51 percent, sixth in NFC)

* Bills: about a 31 percent chance to make the playoffs if they win, about an 11 percent chance if they lose (now at 22 percent, ninth in AFC)

Game with draft impact: San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns

* Browns: 65 percent chance to win (5.0 predicted point differential)

* Browns: 60 percent chance to finish the season with the No. 1 overall draft pick and an 87 percent chance to finish with a top-two pick

* Browns: Chance for the No. 1 pick will rise to approximately 85 percent with a loss this week

* 49ers: Chance of top five pick will rise to approximately 43 percent with a loss (now at 32 percent)