The Outbreak

Just 2 months ago, it seemed as if Trump had a clear path to re-election. The economy was booming, and average Americans were seeing their wages rise for the first time. The divisions in the Democratic party between progressives and moderates made both sides seem petty against a united Republican front. Trump continually held 90% approval ratings in the Republican party, and nationwide his approval ratings were some of the highest he ever had.

Then came the Coronavirus. Trump’s almost-daily Twitter boasts about the stock market became rarer as the Dow seesawed from a record high of almost 29,000 to, at its lowest, 19,000. Unemployment skyrocketed to 15%, up from just 3.5% in late 2019, leaving many — especially those in manufacturing who helped Trump win key swing states like Pennsylvania in 2016 — economically stranded. His Coronavirus message was far from consistent. He blamed both the Chinese Communist Party and Democrats at points before finally admitting the fact there was a crisis. On the 1st April, the White House predicted up to 240,000 Americans could die from the coronavirus, and Trump said the US should brace for a “very, very painful” next two weeks. Trump’s nearly-weekly rallies, which were broadcast over network television, have stopped due to social distancing. The outbreak has also helped Democrats seem more united, as everyone came together to criticize Trump’s response. America is now the country with the most confirmed cases, with (as of 1st of April) 186,000 cases, with probably far more being unconfirmed. Hospitals are overrun, and the lack of health insurance for many Americans seems like more of a worry than ever before.

Approval — Rally ‘Round the Flag

It seems that Trump’s approval has not been hit, despite his seemingly poor response. Gallup polls actually saw Trump’s approval ratings increase to 49%, and 60% of Americans said that they “approved” of Trump’s response to coronavirus. Almost every democratic leader in countries hit hard by the coronavirus have seen their approval ratings rise. Boris Johnson of the UK has hit 72% performance satisfaction with eligible voters, and 72% approval in his handling of the coronavirus, according to YouGov polls from late March. Similar trends are seen in Germany and France. Why? One explanation is the “rally-round-the-flag” effect. Essentially, this approval rating bump is similar to what wartime Presidents get — during a period of crisis, people are more united. The President is seen as the figurehead of national unity, and people want to trust and believe that their government is working as hard as it can. This, combined with less criticism from opposition parties, leads to a bump in approval rating. Interestingly, the bump comes not from Republicans, but from Democrats and independents. Support of Trump among independents has increased 8%, and 6% among Democrats, according to Gallup. This bump is smaller than what was seen for other Presidents during times of crisis, but is still noticeable — it is a 5% increase from early March.

Criticism

As far as less criticism goes, this seems not as relevant in the coronavirus outbreak than in a war, where going against the army means going against the country. The Democrats have taken every opportunity to criticize Trump’s response to the coronavirus. They accused Republicans of wanting to bail out large companies rather than average citizens, and Trump of being slow to respond and pushing conspiracy theories. Still, the Democrats have had fewer channels for criticism than they did before the outbreak. Network TV plays Trump’s press conferences constantly, and the face of the Democratic opposition — Joe Biden — has had less airtime as a result. Opinion writers have been relegated to the back pages in newspapers and off TV channels, replaced by Trump’s cabinet members and interviews with medical professionals and statisticians. This lack of criticism has given Trump the chance to dominate the news cycle with less pushback, leading to Trump’s bump in approval among independents. Other scandals, such as the impeachment, are over, and pail in comparison to the ongoing crisis. Democrats have been forced to work with Trump and the Republicans on passing coronavirus relief bills, whether they like it or not. After all, if they didn’t, they would appear to care more about achieving partisan goals than helping Americans.

How Does This Affect Congress?

The Democrats have also seen their fair share of criticism on coronavirus. Nancy Pelosi was accused of wasting time and stopping progress by requesting non-essential measures in the relief bill, such as $25 million for the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, new environmental regulations, and $300 million for the National Endowment for the Arts. During a time of crisis, this inclusion of arts in relief funding gave Republicans something to criticize the Democrats on –Trump complained that Nancy’s Pelosi’s bill included “Windmills all over the place, all sorts of credits for windmills!”. The places where the coronavirus has hit hardest, such as New York, are controlled almost entirely by Democratic legislators, shifting at least some of the blame to them in the public eye. Still, after a few days of negotiation, the Senate passed coronavirus relief bills with bipartisan support — the CARES Act passed the Senate 96–0, and other bills had similar vote results. Both parties have had to tread carefully on how they allocate money in the relief bill, as the mass bailouts for big corporations during the 2008 Financial Crisis have left a sour taste in the mouth of many Americans.

This crisis may also have benefits for Republicans in Congress. It is the Republicans who will be able to take most of the credit for the bailout bills passed, as the Republicans control the Presidency and Senate. The CARES Act includes provisions for cash payments to average Americans. These cheques are something Americans will see right in front of them and will undoubtedly improve their financial situations. It’s harder to disapprove of your House representative or Senator when you just got $1200 thanks to them. Alongside this, Congressional action on the coronavirus crisis has been remarkably quick (compared, at least, to how gridlocked Congress seemed before). As Republicans are still widely perceived as being in power, despite the Democrats controlling the House, much of the credit will go to them for passing essential legislation. This is made more impactful by the fact that Republican members of Congress already hold higher approval than Democrats — according to Gallup polls from 10th March, Republicans had 40% approval vs the Democrats’ 35%. It is not unreasonable to expect these approval ratings to go up, especially as Republicans have a head-start in approval, partially due to the relatively unpopular impeachment of Trump by the Democrats. Mitch McConnell, a leading Republican, has already started to push his role in helping to pass the coronavirus relief bills as part of his Senate re-election campaign, and other members of Congress will likely do the same soon.

Election

It’s important to remember, however, that we are still in early days. The 2020 elections are in November, and by this point the coronavirus crisis itself may be over, but the economic damage won’t be. Goldman Sachs predicts that unemployment will increase to 15%, and that US GDP will shrink by 34% by mid-year. The economy is highly unlikely to recover enough by November to let Trump’s message of economic prosperity easily carry him to re-election, and this is something the Democrats will be able to take advantage of once the crisis ends. Many voters who switched to Trump will be jobless and economically stuck, and Trump could be left with a weak economy and low approval. This would give Democrats a clear path to the Presidency, backed by promises of large unemployment assistance and healthcare reform, both of which are front-and-center of American politics now.