Last weeks biggest news story was the Turkish invasion of the northern Syria. Turkish mechanized forces crossed the border together with Islamist militia fighters supplied with Turkish uniforms, weapons and training. Turkish government has openly stated that the operation “Euphrates Shield” is intended to, and this is a direct quote, “sterilize the northern Syria of all terrorist forces”. So the Turkish forces are fighting against both ISIS and YPG. Presumably they will also attack the SDF and it’s Arab troops fighting under the command of the Kurdish YPG.

Norther Syria around the city of Jarablus, that has been targeted by the Turkish operation, has been held by the Islamic State for years. Turkish intervention coincides with the YPG/SDF:s advance into the region. Most western analysts and writers (myself included) have been following a narrative that Turkish government is more worried about democratic Kurds than it is of the genocidal ISIS.

After discussions with Turkish politicians and academics I have noticed a vastly different narrative. It follows the official stance labeling all armed groups in Syria, besides the Russian backed Syrian army and Russian expeditionary force, as terrorists. This narrative explains the timing of the Turkish intervention with the need for an approval from Moscow. Fear of a all out war between Russia and Turkey has postponed the operation until the relationship between Ankara and Moscow improved suddenly after the failed coup attempt in Turkey. Same individuals are also stressing how important Russia is to Turkish economy and how there is a long a prosperous history between the two nations. Narrative happily omits the numerous bloody wars fought between the nations.

There seems to be a hint of truth in this narrative. Turkey has been eager to “sterilize” the border region from the successful Kurdish forces and their de-facto autonomous nation-state. Russian expeditionary operation that has been aimed safeguarding the Russian geopolitical assets in the region, has made a direct air operation in Syrian airspace tricky for Turkish air force. From the Turkish perspective developing closer relations to Moscow has been strongly discouraged by the USA and NATO. Western powers are strongly opposing the Russia geopolitical advance, due to the illegal annexation of Crimea and the invasion of the eastern Ukraine.

The coup attempt allowed Turkish leadership to distance itself from the USA and negotiate directly with Moscow. It is now evident that a deal has been made between Presidents Putin and Erdogan. What we know is that Turkish military has been given a free reign over the border regions between Syria and Turkey.

We do not know what Russia is gaining from this deal. It does benefit from the Turkish presence in the northern Syria. But it would be highly unlikely that Putin wouldn’t have demanded other favors from Erdogan and the AK-party. That those concessions might be? Stalling new NATO membership applications? Closing the Bosporus and the Dardanelles on Russian demand? Blocking Turkish airspace and bases from NATO forces? All of these options could give an edge to any future Russian operation against for example Ukraine or Georgia.

Tehran has clearly aligned itself with Moscow and now Ankara. Iranian troops have contributed greatly to the Syrian war, fighting alongside Syrian army and the Russian expeditionary force. Now Iranian ayatollahs have allowed Russian strategic bombers to conduct operations from Iranian airbases. This basing allows Russian air force to engage NATO assets far in the Indian ocean and to close of the Gulf.

Operation that can easily be overlooked as a border skirmish and a nuance of a complex civil-war can also be a important indicator of rapid and fundamental changes in the geopolitical situation of the world that, if not countered accordingly can lead to a disaster for the western world.