This week, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) released its South African scenarios 2024, which shows that the country may experience a political turning point in the aftermath of the ANC’s 2017 national elective conference, at which a new leader for the party will be elected.

This report looks at what the country is likely to look like after the 2019 and 2024 elections, and also shows milestones and developments before then:

Important milestones on the road to 2024

August 3 2016 provincial elections

Possible ratings downgrade later this year or early 2017

2017: December – new ANC president or earlier if Zuma listens to calls for him to step down

2019 and 2024 – national and provincial elections are two points where we will begin to see the effect of generational change on voter behaviour. Born-frees will change election outcomes in greater volumes each year. These voters will demand parties that enable economic growth and wellbeing rather than one that echoes the sentiments of the Freedom Charter.

Rise of voters who are impatient for change and who are more attracted to populist policies

Developments in the ANC are key

The most important determinant of the country’s development will be developments within the ANC. A big moment will be the party’s 2017 elective conference

Traditionalists in the ANC: those who were originally concerned about damage to their interests if Zuma steps down before 2019. They are socially conservative and subscribe to a nationalist or socialist economic pathway and have benefited materially from the status quo of South African politics

Reformers: a growing educated, largely urban (multiethnic) group that is dissatisfied with the current political and economic trajectory. They are outside the current patronage circle and are motivated by a desire to shift the allocation of state resources closer to home. Largest constituency of reformers is in Gauteng

Bafana Bafana

An uninspiring but most likely scenario

Likely Zuma will step down as president once the ANC elects a new leader to avoid two centres of power

ANC goes into 2019 polls with a new but uninspiring team

ANC to obtain margin of 56% support in 2019 elections

Expectations are that the ANC will fall below 50% in 2024 elections

Mandela Magic

Rapid transition to a new leadership dominated by a reformist grouping

Greatest potential economic and developmental benefits for the country

The most positive election results for the ANC

Sees support for the EFF eventually drop off on the understanding that many EFF supporters’ votes were actually a protest vote against the current leadership of the ANC

ANC voters considering DA (particularly in Gauteng) may be persuaded to give the ANC a chance

Won’t be smooth sailing. ANC will see revolt from those who lose their power and ability to access resources and some will rebel against the party’s more social-democratic policies

Will occur without a change in the balance of forces in the ANC

Will gain impetus from poor results by the ANC in August elections

2019: ANC gets 59% and goes to 57% in 2024

Nation Divided (worst-case scenario)