Florida at South Carolina

Betting Line: Florida -5

Over/Under: 47

Florida’s hopes for an undefeated season were dashed last week when they fell 42-28 at LSU. Florida’s defense got absolutely ran through by LSU (what losers, there is no way my Longhorns would do something like that). The Gators could not get any semblance of a pass rush against a strong LSU offensive line. I the Florida needs to and should get a better pass rush against a South Carolina offensive line that might not be bad, but is clearly worse than LSU’s. South Carolina is going to start a quarterback that is nursing a knee injury and it can turn bad for them fast if Florida gets to the quarterback. The Gators did well in the pass rush against Auburn and I have confidence that they can find their groove again. Jonathan Greenard and Jabari Zuniga are both listed as questionable for the game, so someone needs to step up at defensive line in their absence. Look for Adam Shuler, Kyree Campbell, and Adam Stiner to play big roles if Greenard and/or Zuniga are out. On offense, Florida had some success through the air against LSU. I think Florida should have success through the air against South Carolina, but they need to watch out for cornerback Israel Mukuamu who picked off three passes in South Carolina’s win over Georgia last week. Florida has depth at receiver and leads the country in having 15 different players with a receiving touchdown so I think they will still find some solid options.

Last week, South Carolina had what is likely the biggest upset of this season with their 20-17 win in double overtime over Georgia. The Gamecocks were led by a monster game from cornerback Israel Mukuamu. Mukuamu picked off three passes, returned one for a touchdown, and put up 11 tackles. South Carolina will be playing against a deep Florida receiving corps, so they will need more players than just Mukuamu to step up. Fellow starting cornerback Jaycee Horn will need a good game as well. Another thing South Carolina needs to account for is their defensive front which definitely takes a hit when it was revealed defensive end DJ Wonnum will not play this week. Wonnum leads all defensive linemen in tackles and leads the team in tackles for loss. Javon Kinlaw will be keyed on quite a bit more this game because of that, and somebody else up front will need to have a good day. On offense, it looks like Ryan Hilinski will play at quarterback, but he is still recovering from a knee injury he suffered against Georgia and will likely be pretty limited in terms of mobility. The Gamecocks will need to do well in pass protection in order to keep Hilinski healthy and also give him time to throw. I expect a lot of quick routes to be called, meaning receivers need to create separation early. Rico Dowdle had a decent showing at running back against Georgia but will also need to step up this game so the Gamecocks can try and establish the run game early.

Prediction:

South Carolina hangs around for awhile but Florida pulls out a 27-17 win over their former head coach.

Oregon at Washington

Betting Line: Washington +3

Over/Under: 48.5

Oregon had a fully dominating performance last week in their 45-3 win over Colorado. The Ducks did extremely well running the ball, led by 171 rushing yards from CJ Verdell. As a whole, Oregon averaged seven yards per carry and never really were stopped. Another big reason for Oregon’s success on the ground is their amazing offensive line. Tackle Penei Sewell and guard Shane Lemieux were both named on the mid-season All-American list. With a rainy forecast predicted in Seattle for the game, the ground game will be even more important. The offensive line will need to pave the way well, and Verdell needs to have a good day. Justin Herbert has really improved his accuracy this season, but this game will be his biggest test so far this season. Herbert did lose one of his best targets in tight end Jacob Breeland who suffered a season ending injury against Colorado. True freshman Mycah Pittman (brother of USC receiver Michae Pittman) had a very good showing in his first game back from injury and can hopefully fill that void. Washington has a very good secondary and the Ducks will need to find some answers at receiver. Pittman and Jaylon Redd look like the likely candidates. On defense, Oregon has a very good group of defensive backs led by safety Jevon Holland, cornerbacks Thomas Graham Jr. and Verone McKinley. Holland is playing, but is recovering from an injury that is just being described as a lower body injury. If Oregon can bait Jacob Eason, Washington’s quarterback who can be trigger happy, into an interception or two, they will be set up very well. As I said before, Oregon also needs to be ready to stop the run with weather being a concern.

Washington had a good bounce back game last week with a 51-27 win at Arizona on Saturday night. Jacob Eason had a strong showing, completing 15/22 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns. Eason needs to keep his performance strong against Oregon, as his numbers dip significantly against teams with string secondaries. He needs to limit his bad throws and not force bad passes. True freshman Puka Nacua had a breakout game against Arizona as he led the team with 97 receiving yards. Nacua and Aaron Fuller will be looked to often. Washington has a solid offensive line led by tackle Trey Adams and that line will need to do well this week. The run game might be needed with rain in the forecast, meaning Salvon Ahmed and Sean McGrew will be key players for this game. If they do well, Washington will be set up well. On defense, the Huskies need to get resistance against Oregon’s offensive line. Oregon has one of if not the best offensive lines in the country and Washington will need to find a way to get some penetration into the backfield. Edge rusher Benning Potoa’e, Ryan Bowman, and Josiah Bronson will be called upon often and need to come through.

Prediction:

Washington rides the run game to a 24-20 revenge win.

Temple at SMU

Betting Line: SMU -9

Over/Under: 59.5

Temple improved to 5-1 on the season last week with an impressive 30-28 win over then undefeated Memphis. The Owls have continued to have solid running back play as Re’Mahn Davis has 575 rushing yards this season and Jager Gardner has 375 of his own. Temple also has a solid passing attack as quarterback Anthony Russo has thrown for 1,503 yards on the season. Russo’s passes have been mostly divided between Jaden Blue, Branden Mack, and Isaiah Wright. The Owls need to try and keep their offense balanced for this game and not let SMU sell out to stop one thing. On defense, Temple needs to try and force turnovers. SMU has a bit of a problem in terms of turning the ball over and some well timed fumble recovery or interception will go a long way. Temple needs to account for star SMU receiver James Proche. Harrison Hand and Christian Braswell need to be sound in coverage. SMU running back Xavier Jones has come along strong recently and Temple needs to keep their run defense strong. Defensive tackle Ifeanyi Maijeh has been a major disruptor for opposing offenses and needs to keep that up against SMU.

SMU had a well timed bye week last week, and are one of 12 undefeated teams in the country. The Mustangs needed triple overtime to win in their last outing. Running back Xavier Jones did well against Tulsa and has established himself as a very good running back recently with 276 rushing yards over the last two games. The Mustangs need Jones to play well and their offensive line to hold up as Temple is very good against the run. SMU needs to account for Temple defensive tackle Ifeanyi Maijeh, who has 10 tackles for loss already this season. Maijeh can really terrorize SMU’s run game if SMU’s offensive line does a poor job of blocking. The Mustangs also need to take care of the ball. The fact that they have a negative turnover margin has not cost them a game yet but it will if they are not careful. Quarterback Shane Buechele has had a good showing this season and will need to get rid of the ball quickly against a good pass rushing team. On defense, the Mustangs need to put a lot of their energy into stopping Temple’s ground game. Defensive linemen Delontae Scott, Demerick Gary, and Turner Coxe need to not let Temple run the ball at will. I do not think Temple’s coaching staff has full confidence in their passing game and I think SMU will be set up well if they make Temple beat them through the air.

Prediction:

SMU keeps their undefeated streak going with a 34-24 win.

Baylor at Oklahoma State

Betting Line: Oklahoma State -4

Over/Under: 68.5

Baylor has continued to survive and advance with their undefeated season as they beat Texas Tech 33-30 in double overtime. Charlie Brewer did throw for 352 yards, but he also threw three interceptions. Brewer needs to keep the interceptions down against a team that will definitely make them pay and can easily create points off of turnovers. Brewer had not thrown an interception before the Texas Tech game so I do not expect this streak to continue. On defense, Baylor will have their hands full. Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard leads the nation in rushing yards by over 200 yards and has yet to be really stopped. Baylor needs to be proactive and aggressive in slowing down Hubbard. Their 3-3-5 defense is not the best for stopping the run, but they can counter that if they are aggressive with safety blitzes. The Bears can also benefit from being effective rushing the passer. Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders has a very strong arm, but is prone to bad throws, especially when he is getting pressured. While he can beat defenders with his legs, he can often times force bad throws. Baylor’s last important defensive task will be covering Tylan Wallace. Wallace has been the recipient of 46% of Oklahoma State’s passing yards and stopping him can really stunt the offense. The job of covering Wallace will likely fall to Raleigh Texada, and he will need to hold his ground.

Oklahoma State had a bye week last week that was very well timed as they had multiple players recovering from nagging injuries. The Cowboys had a rough outing in their most recent game as they lost 45-35 against Texas Tech. The Cowboys did not do very well against the pass as Texas Tech quarter Jett Duffey (who is not even their original starter) threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns on 9.6 yards per attempt. The Cowboys will need to be better this week against a strong Baylor passing attack. Charlie Brewer is a solid quarterback and has a very underrated group of receivers to throw to. Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton are both good receivers who are very good at catching contested balls. Oklahoma State needs to stay sound in coverage against both of them. Offensively, the Cowboys have a wide array of weapons. Chuba Hubbard is a gift that keeps on giving for the Cowboys as he already has over 1,000 rushing yards on the season. Hubbard, a Canadian native who has recently had his Heisman campaign endorsed by Wayne Gretzky, is a tremendous athlete who has elite field vision. If Hubbard can get going, Oklahoma State will be very hard to stop. Quarterback Spencer Sanders creates a lot of big plays, but often has freshman moments as well. This is a game where he will need to minimize those freshman moments. That will be aided quite a bit by Tylan Wallace getting open often. Wallace is fourth in the country in receiving yards and carries Oklahoma State’s passing game at times. If Wallace has a good day, so will the passing game. Oklahoma State also has an inherent advantage in that they are coming off of a bye and Baylor just had a double overtime game last week.

Prediction:

Oklahoma State ends Baylor’s undefeated season with a 37-35 win. I think this game will be an exciting one.

Arizona State at Utah

Betting Line: Utah -13.5

Over/Under: 45.5

Arizona State came away with exciting 38-34 win over Washington State in what was Arizona State’s fourth straight game decide by seven or fewer points. The Sun Devils have made some big strides on offense throughout the season and a lot of that has been led by true freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels has thrown for 1,610 yards and eight touchdowns while running for another 198 yards and two touchdowns. Arizona State will need to protect Daniels this game against a very strong Utah defensive front. Steven Miller will have the task of blocking Bradlee Anae, Utah’s star defensive end. Miller can not just get bulldozed and has to give Daniels time to throw. Daniels also has to be ready for the pressure and not just sit idly in the pocket. If Eno Benjamin can get going on the ground, it will also be a big help. On defense, the Sun Devils need to be able to handle themselves against Utah’s physical ground game. Utah can often gash teams with their run game and Arizona State can not fall victim. The Sun Devils have done pretty well against the run, but Utah will be their biggest test.

Utah had a dominant win last week as they beat Oregon State 52-7 and were ahead 35-0 at halftime. The Utes saw a ton of success through the air as Tyler Huntley threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns on just 17 attempts. If Huntley can have that kind of performance again, Utah will be in a very good spot. I do not expect that though since Oregon State might have the worst defense in the Power Five (I am fully aware that I am probably wrong and forgot someone). Zack Moss has been Utah’s bread and butter on offense as he can often times eat up yards with his physical running style and running behind a solid offensive line. Moss ran for 121 yards last week but he also had just five carries, one of which being a 91 yard touchdown. If Moss can grind out yards, I expect Utah to continue going to him until he is stopped. Still, Huntley needs to be ready to strike at quarterback and I expect Utah to again be deadly on play action. Defensively, the Utes needs to try and put pressure on Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels has had a strong showing this season but I still firmly believe every true freshman has one randomly bad game. Utah can make that happen if they keep consistent pressure on Daniels and force him to think and act quickly. Bringing pressure on the defensive front should also prevent Arizona State from solely relying on Eno Benjamin to grind out yards on the ground. Brandon Aiyuk had 196 receiving yards for the Sun Devils in their last outing and Utah can not let that happen either. Jaylon Johnson needs to do well in coverage against him.

Prediction:

Utah slowly breaks down Arizona State and wins 27-17.

Michigan at Penn State

Betting Line: Penn State -9

Over/Under: 47

Michigan survived a bit of a scare last week as Illinois trimmed a 28-0 Michigan lead to 28-25 in the fourth quarter before Michigan pulled away and won 42-25. Michigan had some struggles in what was looking like a cupcake game. The one thing that should make Wolverines fans happy about this game was that they finally saw some success on the ground. Hassan Haskins ran for 125 yards and Zach Charbonnet ran for another 116. Michigan will need to establish the run in this game but it will be a tough task as Penn State’s run defense is very good. Penn State is strong at every spot on the defensive line and Michigan’s offensive line can not get totally outclassed in this game. Shea Patterson also needs to limit his turnovers as he has thrown some bad interceptions this season and has developed a bit of a case of fumble-itis. Michigan can not afford to lose the turnover battle this game. Defensively, Michigan needs to stop Penn State’s recently resurgent run game. Nittany Lions running back Noah Cain has run for over 100 yards in Penn State’s last two games and he can not let that streak continue. Michigan also needs to hoe that defensive end Kwity Paye is ready to go for the game. Paye is listed as questionable due to a hamstring injury, and the defensive front will have their work cut out for him if he is unable to play. Even if he does play, the rest of defensive line needs to step up. Penn State also has some solid receivers and Michigan needs to stay sound in coverage.

Penn State kept their undefeated season alive last week as they escaped with a 17-12 win at Iowa. Penn State had a very strong defensive performance as they allowed just 70 rushing yards on 2.3 yards per carry. If Penn State can replicate this performance against Michigan, they will be set up to win very well. Yetur Gross-Matos is listed as questionable due to a leg injury. If Gross-Matos does not play, Shaka Toney will have to take on the role of being the player the offensive line will key on. Robert Windsor also needs to do well at defensive tackle. Michigan is a bit prone to turnovers and the Nittany Lions could really benefit from a well timed turnover. On offense, Penn State needs to keep their streak of having a strong run game going. If their offense can just stay balanced, they will put Michigan in a much tougher spot. Penn State needs to do well in pass protection and keep a clean pocket for Clifford. Penn State has quite a few strong pass catching threats and Penn State can be deadly if the likes of KJ Hamler and Jahan Dotson have time to get open. Penn State also needs to use tight end Pat Freiermuth effectively. Freiermuth can be a key player in both run blocking and as a receiving threat. A good game from him will take some ease off of Clifford and the run game. Penn State also has the benefit of this game being at night in Beaver Stadium, and is also a whiteout, so the crowd will be going crazy.

Prediction:

Penn State comes out on top 20-14 in an ugly game.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd. Last week was a rough one for me as I went 2-5 picking against the spread. I am 25-20-2 picking against the spread this season.

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