Whether a university education represents value for money has been called into question in recent years, as students have seen their financial support chipped away thanks to the tripling of tuition fees, and scrapping of maintenance grants and healthcare bursaries. Doctoral education, however, has so far mostly been left untouched – or at least, it had been until the recent launch of doctoral student loans.

Under the scheme, a prospective UK/EU student (starting from August 2018) can apply for up to £25,000 to spend over a maximum of eight years of study (full-time and part-time). The purpose of the loan is to enable around 3,000 more people per year to study for a doctorate who otherwise could not have done so. It is intended to be a contribution to the cost of the PhD, and is only available to those without research council funding who have not yet studied for a doctorate and who are under 60. It’s the final frontier for loans-funded higher education: a student can now fund their whole university education through government-backed loans.

There are things that prospective students should be aware of. While UK undergraduate completion rates are usually above 90%, PhD rates are around 70% (or worse) and 26%-27% of current students are classified as writing up (outside the funded period) according to Hesa data from 2014/15 and 2015/16. Self-funding a PhD, even with the loan, is a gamble – running out of money is a major reason why students drop out. More future doctors could be a good thing, but if they don’t finish their theses, it will all be for nought.

The truth is that while the loan sounds sizeable, students will also struggle to stretch it over four years of tuition and maintenance costs. A maximum of £25,000 over three years full-time leaves a student £10,000 for living expenses after fees. Without other funding, students may need an additional job to support themselves, but many doctoral students work full-time hours (and more) on their research and will struggle to fit that in.

The loan is supposedly designed to help students on the verge of finishing cover costs when other funding runs out. But who will take up that offer? UKCGE think a large number of students needing fourth-year funding will be ineligible since many will be in receipt of a research grant, and are now completed within the funded period. Charity funds are eligible, yet scarce and competitive.

The loans have immediate and long-lasting implications for the value of the doctorate in the UK. Highly competitive UKRI studentships are so prestigious that loan-funded PhD graduates may unfairly be seen as being of lower quality by employers, much like the preference for Russell Group graduates.

The loan may incentivise more people to take up self-funded PhDs, even though they are of questionable benefit to many students. While there are many reasons other than future salary to do a PhD, there’s no getting away from the fact that doctoral degrees do not yield much higher pay after graduation compared to other degrees. It is a period off the pay ladder, prior student loans are not being repaid, no pension contributions are made, and hidden costs such as writing-up fees are hard-to-ignore losses.

The academic job market is oversaturated with PhD graduates vying for already scarce and precarious university positions. Non-academic employers are thankfully seeing the value of the PhD more and more, but there are still many graduates struggling to find work.

A recent study suggests that graduates value their doctorates more as time goes on, better applying their advanced skills as they climb up the career ladder. This could change if mounting loan repayments counteract any PhD salary premium. Loans may also impact the crucial student-supervisor relationship, potentially leading to a dynamic that is closer to a consumer and service provider, as has been seen at the undergraduate level since tuition fees were raised.

The marketing messages around these loans must ensure that prospective students are fully aware of the risk they will be taking. It’s vital that they are able to weigh up the benefits and costs of doctoral study vs employment.

Billy Bryan is a policy consultant specialising in higher education at Technopolis Group

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