by Sunny Hundal

In anticipation of David Cameron’s u-turn on Lisbon, Tim Montgomerie has mounted what could charitably be described as a face-saving operation at ConHome, while trying to extract his own pound of flesh for the support.

He says:

Unless Vaclav Klaus u-turns again, the Lisbon Treaty is about to be ratified. The Conservative leadership will say that, if elected, there’ll be no attempt to ‘unratify’ it via a referendum. Lisbon is not the only problem in our relationship with the EU, goes the argument, and it would be a referendum that cannot undo Lisbon. I’m 99% certain of this position having worked the phones over the last 24 hours.

So far so unexpected. In fact Peter Oborne earlier predicted this with an article in the Observer: ‘Cameron has only himself to blame for this mess on Europe‘.

Tim Montgomerie then proceeds to counter expected criticisms with headers such as:

‘DAVID CAMERON PROMISED A REFERENDUM ON AN ‘UNRATIFIED’ LISBON TREATY, NOTHING ELSE’

and

‘DAVID CAMERON DESERVES THE CONTINUING SUPPORT OF EUROSCEPTICS’

and

‘THE NEXT CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT WILL SEEK A ‘MANIFESTO MANDATE’ FOR RENEGOTIATION’.

Again, so far so unexpected.



But David Cameron promised to The Sun in 2007 that:

Today, I will give this cast-iron guarantee: If I become PM a Conservative government will hold a referendum on any EU treaty that emerges from these negotiations.

That “cast-iron guarantee” is in tatters. As Cameron himself said in the same article:

Small wonder that so many people don’t believe a word politicians ever say if they break their promises so casually.

But what’s most interesting in Tim Montgomerie’s defence of Cameron’s new position is this:

If Britain’s relationship with the EU is fundamentally the same after five years of Conservative government the internal divisions that ended the last Tory period in government will look like a tea party in comparison.

That sounds rather like a thinly veiled threat to me. Put his favoured MPs David Davis or John Redwood MP or else…

Tim Montgomerie has written a good article but its main purpose seems to be to try and neutralise a Tory grassroots revolt while giving a clear signal to Cameron that a battle is nevertheless looming.

Unfortunately the Eurosceptics may not be as easily neutralised as Montgomerie hopes.

Paul Waugh reports:

Dan Hannan, who has tried his best not to give the leadership difficulties over all of this, was blunt today however about the idea of abandoning the referendum. Speaking on BBC’s Politics Show, he was asked what would happen if Cameron’s “cast-iron pledge” was dumped: “That’s a question you’d have to put to him. I mean, it’s he who’s given his word, not me.” [my italics]

…

“My own view remains that there must be a referendum and the case for a British referendum does not depend on what happens in the Czech Republic or Ireland or Poland or anywhere else.”

That’s a pretty stark rejection of the Cameron and Montgomerie position.

Over at the Wall Street Journal Iain Martin is similarly scathing:

David Cameron gave British voters a cast-iron guarantee on a referendum on Lisbon and that guarantee is being broken. That may be because circumstances have changed, but still it’s a pledge that’s being abandoned, discarded or torn-up. As a consequence, the word ‘betrayal’ is going to be bandied about rather a lot.

More importantly, he pours cold water on the strength of the Eurosceptic movement.

Euroscepticism in the UK is in serious trouble. It is said the next Tory intake is overwhelmingly Eurosceptic and perhaps it is, but I suspect that will mean diddly-squat in the long-run. The other two main parties are signed up to the EU consensus. As a movement, Euroscepticism is a mess. After the sceptics won the battle on a single currency (which had as much to do with Gordon Brown’s opposition as it did with their efforts) the movement effectively decommissioned intellectually. No enduring institutions or think-tanks were built to advance ideas for reform of the EU. Beyond endless calls for a referendum, and the important interventions of a few figures such as Dan Hannan MEP, there was virtually nothing of any value.

Ouch! Let the civil war commence.