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One turning point could be war with Iran.



1. Bolton urges Trump to attack Iran. Trump resists, but as the economy erodes and the Dems pound the impeachment drum, the lure of a picturesque war as a distraction looks more tempting.



2. Several "incidents" happen with oil tankers. Trump steps up an American naval presence. Tensions rise as Iranian patrol boats and American ships share waters.



3. Eventually, there is a confrontation. Fire is exchanged and some Iranian boats get sunk.



4. With the American navy ships constantly working, accidents happen. An American ship collides with a tanker. Lots of casualties. It's not Iran's fault, but now Trump has lots of flag draped coffins to parade on Fox News. The American sheeple are angry and ready for war.



5. Trump orders a bombing and missile strike. The B52s are in the air. The ships move into position. Fighters launch. The goal is to bomb key military targets. Trump comes up with a catchy name like "Operation Open Lanes". The military goes into action and the media leaps at the new, shiny object. The skeptics of Trump are pushed off the air and replaced with waving flags and "we support the troops" happy talk not seen since the Iraq War.



6. The attack is successful, but the Iranians have new military hardware from Uncle Putin. They managed to shoot down several planes and lobbed a few missiles at American ships. Two smaller ships are sunk. Some carriers take serious damage. The casualty count tops 1000. Trump has shown Iran who is boss, but at a high cost.



7. Trump has a military victory, but his typical tone deafness hurts him. He brags about "kicking ass" and how this is HIS victory. He ignores the sacrifices of the servicemen and women who died. He gets no approval bump from this "victory'. Even Fox News talking heads are appalled at his indifference.



8. Some Dems backed the attack to get brownie points with red state voters. They feel betrayed and they speak out against Trump. They manage to peel off some of Trump's base.



9. While many Americans will say they say they are upset about all the losses in this military action, they really don't care. It's just a big TV show. But then oil prices jump and so do gas and food prices. The country plunges into recession. NOW they care! Unemployment rises and so do tempers.



10. Trump limps through his second term. Pence is being groomed for Trump's replacement in 2024, but his prospects have dimmed. Russia and China have a new swagger thanks to this military mess. Trump lifts his spirits by going to carefully managed rallies. Anti-war Dems have the wind at their backs. For the first time in decades, voters are sick of war and react with revulsion at the GOPs flag waving pro-war militarism. A President Beto or Warren is coming in 2024. The pundits gloat and say this is Trump's true legacy: an exhausted and humiliated nation.