Our recommended XV made it 5 above-average weeks on the bounce as they brought home 46 points, with a low-scoring round seeing the gameweek average Roberto Firmino (12 points – goal, assist, bonus) and Diego Costa (8 – goal, 2 bonus) were our big performers, whilst Guillermo Varela’s inclusion allowed us to get in on the limited clean sheet action available in Gameweek 28. With just 3 days until the Premier League returns to action again, read on as we present our analysis of the bookmakers odds for Gameweek 29…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Man City 58% Chelsea 2.1 48% Southampton 2.1 48% Man Utd 2.3 43% Swansea 2.5 40% Everton 38% Liverpool 38% Leicester 3 33% Tottenham 3.3 30% Newcastle 3.5 29% Watford 3.5 29% Bournemouth 28% Crystal Palace 3.8 26% Arsenal 4 25% West Brom 4.1 24% Norwich 4.33 23% Sunderland 5.75 17% West Ham 5.75 17% Stoke 6.5 15% Aston Villa 13 8%

Manchester City, on the back of 3 league losses in a row for the first time since 2008, have the perfect chance, and probably the last chance, to get their title bid back on track as they welcome Premier League basement-dwellers Aston Villa to The Etihad on Saturday. The Sky Blues are ranked by the bookies as the team most likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend – a 58% chance. With the Villains the division’s lowest scorers, having netted just 22 goals in their 28 league games so far, 5 less than any other team, and only 2 goals in their last 5 road trips, Joe Hart and Bacary Sagna, rested in midweek, form half of our backline for Gameweek 29.

Chelsea and Southampton (both 48%) tie for 2nd place in the rankings, with the duo enjoying favourable home ties against Stoke and Sunderland respectively. We promote Southampton to 2nd-place outright, gaining them 2 places in our defence, solely due to the fact that they have cheaper players. Whilst the Saints, who have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home games, entertain a struggling Sunderland side, it should be noted that the Black Cats have only blanked in 1 of their last 9 away games (last time out to West Ham). Jose Fonte, who boasts a decent goal threat, and budget-friendly Matt Targett are the 2 men we call upon from Ronald Koeman’s contingent. Chelsea, meanwhile, haven’t kept a home clean sheet in the league since their 1-0 victory over Norwich back in November, a 7-game run, but will fancy their chances of shutting out the Potters, who have blanked in 2 of their last 3 away from The Britannia. Branislav Ivanovic has regained something like his best form under Guus Hiddink and is our selection from the Blues’ backline.

Rounding off the top 5 defensive teams for this weekend are Manchester United (43%) and Swansea (40%). Louis van Gaal’s men will be overjoyed at being back in the race for a Champions League place, but could find it tough against a West Brom outfit who have polished their shooting boots recently (6 in 3). Swansea host Norwich and, on paper at least, seem to have a much better chance of defensive success, with the Canaries blanking in 6 of their last 8 away matches, whilst the Swans have managed a respectable 3 clean sheets in their last 6 at The Liberty. As a result, Lukasz Fabianski and Timothy Fosu-Mensah make our recommended XV.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet rankings tells us that defensive assets from Sunderland (17% – away to Southampton), West Ham (17% – away to Everton), Stoke (15% – away to Chelsea) and Aston Villa (8% – away to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Sergio Aguero 1.57 64% Diego Costa 2.1 48% Romelu Lukaku 2.15 47% Graziano Pelle 2.4 42% Harry Kane 2.5 40% Jamie Vardy 2.5 40% Sadio Mane 2.6 38% Raheem Sterling 38% Yaya Toure 2.75 36% Alberto Paloschi 2.75 36% Daniel Sturridge 2.8 36% Odion Ighalo 3 33% Anthony Martial 3 33% Marcus Rashford 3 33% Kevin Mirallas 3.1 32% Aleksandar Mitrovic 3.1 32% Benik Afobe 3.1 32% Andre Ayew 3.1 32% Olivier Giroud 3.2 31% Eden Hazard 3.3 30% Oscar 3.3 30% Roberto Firmino 3.5 29% Alexis Sanchez 3.75 27% Nacer Chadli 3.75 27% Riyad Mahrez 3.75 27% Dele Alli 3.8 26% Georginio Wijnaldum 4 25% Cameron Jerome 4 25% Connor Wickham 4 25% Saido Berahino 4.1 24% Salomon Rondon 4.1 24% Juan Mata 4.33 23% Emmanuel Emenike 4.5 22% Jermaine Defoe 4.5 22% Dimitri Payet 5 20% Wahbi Khazri 5.5 18% Marko Arnautovic 6 17% Rudy Gestede 6 17% Yannick Bolasie 6.25 16% Nathan Redmond 6.5 15%

With a home fixture against Aston Villa, it is little surprise to see Sergio Aguero topping the bookies’ attacking rankings with a 64% chance of scoring. Playing at the tip of the Manchester City attacking unit, the best at home in the division having scored 35 goals this season, Aguero has bagged 10 of his 14 Premier League goals at The Etihad. And with Remi Garde’s men conceding 11 goals across their last 3 games, the stage looks set for the Argentine to run riot on Saturday. His positions atop the rankings means Aguero dons the captain’s armband for our squad this weekend, with teammate Bacary Sagna our vice-captain.

Joining Aguero in our 3-man front line are Diego Costa (48%) and Romelu Lukaku (47%). After scoring at Carrow Road on Tuesday evening, Costa took his tally to 5 in 7 games as he continues his renaissance under Guus Hiddink, and the Blues’ striker will look to further his hot streak on Saturday when he faces a Stoke side who have conceded 7 in their last 3 on the road, a tally only beaten by Newcastle. With 2 goals in his last 3 appearances, Romelu Lukaku, who now has 17 for the season, will be hoping that he can break down a West Ham defence that hasn’t kept a clean sheet in 5 away games.

Following his recall to the starting XI in midweek, Sadio Mane (38%) is the 1st midfielder to make our squad. Despite a poor return of just 3 Premier League goals this campaign, the Senegalese attacker has managed to register 8 assists, and is afforded the chance to improve his goalscoring form when the division’s worst away defence, Sunderland (37 goals conceded in 14 games), visit St Mary’s on Saturday. Joining Mane in our midfield this week is Everton’s Belgian forward Kevin Mirallas (32%), who notched a pair of assists and maximum bonus points for an 11 point haul at Villa Park on Tuesday evening. He faces the aforementioned West Ham defence on Saturday, against whom he’ll be looking to put an injury-ravaged season to date behind him by showing his class and consistency.

Completing our midfield quartet, and giving it a distinctly African flavour, are Andre Ayew (32%) and Riyad Mahrez (27%). Ghanaian Ayew is enjoying an impressive debut campaign in the Premier League having bagged 8 goals and 4 assists, statistics he’ll look to build on when Norwich, who have the joint-worst defence in the league (53 goals conceded in 28 games), roll up to The Liberty on Saturday. Algerian wizard Mahrez needs no introduction in a stellar season that has seen him smash 14 goals and 11 assists so far. He’ll need to be at his best though to unlock a Watford defense that has kept out both Chelsea and Bournemouth at Vicarage Road recently. Dele Alli (26%) completes our squad and takes the 1st spot on our bench. After only playing 30 minutes in midweek, it seems likely that Mauricio Pochettino will reinstate the Englishman, who has 7 league goals to his name this term, to the Spurs starting XI for the North London derby in Saturday’s early kick off.

Other viable options for the midfield positions include Manchester City duo Raheem Sterling (38%) and Yaya Toure (36%), South American trio Oscar (30%), Roberto Firmino (29%) and Alexis Sanchez (27%), and Spurs’ Nacer Chadli (27%), but they all fail to make our XV due to budget and/or squad selection restraints.

The Gameweek Squad

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.

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