Scan through the South Region on your bracket and you won’t be surprised to find Kansas, Michigan, and Florida in the Sweet 16. All three teams were in the Top 5 at some point this season and despite their flaws, they were all given a fair chance to win the South Region. But not Florida Gulf Coast, the school that was founded in the same year its’ star player, Sherwood Brown, was born, has surprised everyone by beating Georgetown and San Diego State to reach the Round of 16. The debate over whether Florida got a lucky break or a tough match up is just getting started and it won’t be finished until the final whistle blows on Friday night. Here’s a preview of what might happen in the wild South Region.

Kansas vs. Michigan (7:37 PM, Friday)

Key Matchup: Mitch McGary vs. Jeff Withey

Jeff Withey has been one of the most dominating players to this point in the tournament and will need to be contained if Michigan wants to win this game. Mitch McGary has emerged has an important post player on a Wolverine team that gets most of its’ points from the front court. Withey has shot 65% from the field in his first two games of the tournament. Lowering that percentage and finding a way to score down low is huge for McGary and Michigan.

Kansas will win if…

Ben McLemore and Travis Releford can consistently score and make Michigan work on defense. If those two are scoring then Michigan’s suspect defense will be exposed. On defense they must stop Burke and Hardaway Jr., both players can create their own shot and create problems for Kansas’ perimeter defense.

Kansas’ C Jeff Withey

Michigan will win if…

Trey Burke plays his best game of the tournament and his teammates take the pressure of of him by hitting shots. Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson both need to make buckets to keep Kansas from focusing in and shutting down Burke and Hardaway.

Michigan PG Trey Burke

Prediction: Michigan 71-65

Florida vs. Florida Gulf Coast (9:57 PM, Friday)

Key Matchup: Mike Rosario vs. Sherwood Brown

Sherwood Brown’s return to the court in the second half sparked a 17-0 run and clinched the victory for the Eagles on Sunday. Mike Rosario scored 25 points and was the key to Florida’s win over Minnesota. Rosario has emerged as the go to player for the Gators and has been the most consistent scorer in this tournament for Billy Donovan. Matching Brown will be extremely important to keep FGCU from going on a run, something Florida doesn’t handle well.

Florida will win if…

The ball gets to Patrick Young down low and the Gators don’t feel the pressure because of their higher seed. Florida is the more talented team and can shoot the three ball with Rosario, Kenny Boynton, and Erik Murphy. Young and Scottie Wilbekin lead them on defense and used lock down defense to stymie the Minnesota comeback.

Gators G Scottie Wilbekin

Florida Gulf Coast will win if…

They can keep the hot streak going and put pressure on Florida early. The Eagles were clearly underrated entering this tournament and are a talented team, but they’ll need more magic to beat the Gators. Playing relaxed is the best thing they can do to keep it within striking distance for a chance at the Elite 8.

FGCU G Sherwood Brown

Prediction: Florida 75-64