Written by: Raphie Cantor and Diego Solares

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This article is part of an ongoing series, Padres Trade Court. If you’re a newcomer to the series, please check out the introduction linked here.

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Order! Order! Order!

*bangs baseball bat on desk*

Padres Trade Court™️ is now in session.

Calling case No. 001 — The Friar Faithful versus Kirby Yates. The prosecution will be arguing that Yates should be traded away from the Padres, while the defense is arguing that he should stay. Today’s prosecutor is Raphie Cantor, and the defense is Diego Solares.

The Case for a Trade

It’s safe to say that Kirby Yates was the best reliever in baseball last year. Wait, wait. I hear your protestations. Yes, Athletics reliever Liam Hendriks edged out Yates for slightly more fWAR (3.8 versus 3,4, respectively). But it’s important to note that Hendriks played on the 97-win Oakland A’s, and therefore pitched 83 innings as a closer. Yates was stuck on the 70-win Padres, and thus was only able to throw 60.2 innings in the same role. Aside from that, Yates outpaced relievers in nearly every other category, posting a league-best 1.19 ERA, and pairing that with an also league-best 1.30 FIP. His control was even more impressive. His 36.2% K-BB% differential was second only to Josh Hader. But the stat that sticks out to me most out of all the eye-popping 2019 numbers is Yates’s sheer reluctance to give up dingers. Yates gave up just two home runs last season. Two! There were twice as many no-hitters thrown in 2019 than home runs hit off of Kirby Yates.

Yates’s success can largely be chalked up to his devastating splitter. He went to his splitter 41.9% of the time last year. It was the most valuable split-finger fastball in baseball last year, saving a league-best 11.8 runs above average across all relievers according to Fangraphs. As Rob Friedman shows with his excellent overlay, the fastball/splitter combo can even make MVPs look silly.

So, why the heck would I prosecute the case for trading such a dynamic closer? I have two words for you: trade value. The 2020 season is the last year that the Padres have Yates under team control. He’ll be a free agent come this November, and will likely sign a high-dollar contract elsewhere assuming his productivity remains remotely close to 2019. With a four-year commitment to Drew Pomeranz and young stud Andres Muñoz both locked into the Padres bullpen for seasons to come, the relief staff is secure long-term. Even if Yates were traded tomorrow, the Padres would still project to have a top-10 bullpen.

There are some teams that would like to compete in 2020 who would be salivating at the chance to add Yates to their staff on the cheap. Notably, the Indians’ bullpen projects at just 2.1 WAR. With the White Sox now pushing for contention and the Twins still dominant, Cleveland could be looking to bolster their bullpen to remain competitive. The Padres have been linked all offseason to the Indians in a possible trade for Francisco Lindor, Corey Kluber, or Mike Clevinger. While Kluber was dealt to the Rangers back in December, both Lindor and Clevinger are still on the team. While I wouldn’t advocate for a Lindor trade, trading for Clevinger makes a lot of sense. The Indians rotation would still be quite strong even without Clevinger, anchored by Carlos Carrasco and Shane Bieber. Clevinger carries three years of club control, meaning he could be the veteran leading Chris Paddack, Mackenzie Gore, and Luis Patiño into the Padres future. A package of Yates with Joey Lucchesi and a prospect attached could tempt the Indians into making a move that would work for both sides.

The prosecution rests.

The Defense

While my counterpart made several interesting and impressive points, the fact of the matter is that it’s not in the Padres’ best interest to trade Yates right now. If they were going to move him at any point in his San Diego tenure, the perfect time to do so would’ve been at the trade deadline last season when his true value was at an all-time high and the team wasn’t contending.

It’s my understanding, however, that the Padres want to field a winning ball club in 2020 and potentially compete for a playoff spot. If that is the case, the organization needs to field the best 26-man roster they can and moving on from one of the best, established relievers over the past two seasons in baseball doesn’t make much sense to me.

You could sell me on the fact that San Diego has several other candidates that could take over as the team’s closer, but almost all of them are inexperienced or have never pitched in that role. Sure, Muñoz has wipeout stuff, but he’s going to be 21 all season and there’s still several concerns about how he’ll hold up over an entire big league season. Pomeranz was dominant for the Milwaukee Brewers as a setup man for Hader in 2019, but he to is new to this whole reliever thing and it’s not wise to put everything in his corner. Trey Wingenter, Jose Castillo, and Michel Baez are all closer material, but they to lack experience in shutting opponents out in the ninth. It takes more than just an elite pitch mix to close games out at the big league level and it takes a special type of individual that can handle pressure to do so. If the goal is to win now, why roll the dice and move on from an established closer who happens to be one of the game’s best?

With the rebuild ultimately coming to an end, it’s time for the Padres to stop trading away their most valuable assets for prospects and start competing for playoff appearances. A losing season in 2020 would be 10 straight years in a row without a record above .500, which is obviously not appealing to a fan base healthy to win. If you recall the last time that San Diego had a winning record, they did so with a dominant bullpen that featured several weapons and a truly elite closer. That formula worked for them then, who says it can’t work now?

My main point is this: if the organization’s goal is to win games and win now, they need to have the best 26 players on the field in their most impactful roles. Yates is one of the best at what he does and it’s time that San Diego take advantage of their assets rather than just move them.

In your opinion, who won? Check our pinned tweet on our Twitter page after you give this a read and vote on which writer you agree with!

Credit to Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images for the Featured Image