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Published on the Doomstead Diner on December 1, 2015

Discuss these Results at the Survey Table inside the Diner

Drought Survey Results are IN!

This is a very speculative survey of course. Nobody can give any absolute scientific proof for their opinion on any of these questions. However, when you look at a group of Doomers, you begin to get a picture of where they think things are worst, and where they are less worse.

Since you don't know precisely where Mother Nature will decide to drop down some water in any given month or year, these estimates can change quite a bit from year to year. For instance, the El Nino event this year appears to have brought copious rainfall to Texas, which has been in drought for quite a few years. It hasn't completely alleviated the drought, and has actually brought the opposite problem of several major Flooding Events, which can be just as destructive. In flooding events also, most of the water isn't captured, it ends up running back to the sea before it can be sequestered behind some dam, if in fact the dam has not burst. For predictable Ag needs, your ideal is a regular amount of rainfall, not so little everything dries up, not so much that everything is periodically under 3 feet of water and bridges get washed away.

Despite the problems with being precise here, there are some fairly obvious ongoing trends, and Doomers who follow climate issues are pretty aware of them, so getting a snapshot here of how Drought will play out is interesting information.

So, here we go.

Starting with when the Hoover Dam will have to be shut down and stop producing cheap electricity for the Vegas Strip to stay lit up and Californicators to run their Plasma TVs

What is closest to the year that the Hoover Dam will have to be shut down and stop providing Electricity?



2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later The Hoover Dam will produce Electricity for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses All Data 3

(6.25%) 9

(18.75%) 10

(20.83%) 2

(4.17%) 9

(18.75%) 9

(18.75%) 4

(8.33%) 2

(4.17%) 3.32 48

Most Doomers believe this will occur between 2017 and 2020, about 60%. I agree with that assessment.

At the same time though, most Doomers think it will take until 2025 before Vegas is a complete Ghost Town and the lights on the Strip will go dark forever more.

What is closest to the year that Las Vegas will become a Ghost Town?



2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later Las Vegas will not become a Ghost Town for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses All Data 2

(4.17%) 3

(6.25%) 3

(6.25%) 1

(2.08%) 7

(14.58%) 17

(35.42%) 15

(31.25%) 0

(0%) 6.1 48

It is hard to fathom though how people will still live there for 5 more years even if there is some drinking water left. The Casinos will all be out of biz. What will they do for work? It will take a while for it to empty completely of course, but I don't think it will take 5 years.

How about Los Angeles? When do the Californicators hit the Refugee Highway and abandon Hollywood?

What is closest to the year that Los Angeles will become a Ghost Town?



2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later Los Angeles will not become a Ghost Town for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses All Data 2

(4.35%) 0

(0%) 3

(6.52%) 0

(0%) 3

(6.52%) 11

(23.91%) 22

(47.83%) 5

(10.87%) 6.96 46

Most Doomers think LA doesn't become a complete Ghost Town until 2030, and I mostly agree with that. There will still be some left, they will desalinate water, expend huge amounts of energy to keep Snorting Cocaine in Malibu Mansions, at least if they haven't been inundated with Mud Slides before they get the lines laid out on the Mirror and the $100 Bills rolled up..

There are even bigger and more immediate problems with drought than in Vegas or LA down in Sao Paolo, Brasil. Really all of Brasil since they are burning down the Rainforest for Ag land which might last them 2 seasons, but Sao Paolo has the worst problems right now.

What is closest to the year that Sao Paolo will become a Ghost Town?



2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later Sao Paolo will not become a Ghost Town for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses All Data 2

(4.26%) 2

(4.26%) 1

(2.13%) 2

(4.26%) 13

(27.66%) 12

(25.53%) 14

(29.79%) 1

(2.13%) 5.56 47

Again, most Doomers think it will take until 2020 before the city becomes unlivable, but on that one I am not so sure. They'll need some serious rainfall in 2016 to stay viable,and the Brasilians are also BROKE. So building new infrastructure and pipelines for water doesn't seem likely either for the Paolistas.

Probably the BIGGEST question in terms of Global Homo Sap Dieoff from drought issues is concerned is the Great Plains of the FSoA, the so-called "Breadbasket". It's only been a breadbasket since we started pumping water up from the Ogallala Aquifer and throwing down megatons of fossil fuel based fertilizer on the soil. Prior to this, the neighborhood was basically a desert, only suitable for grazing herds of Bison and a few First Nations People who hunted them down, following the herds.

When Ogallala is pumped dry, or when the energy to pull up what water is still left deep underground is unavailable, the Great Plains are DONE as a Breadbasket. Once that occurs, the FSoA will not only no longer be shipping off Food Aid to MENA countries, we will have serious problems feeding our own current population.

So when does this major Doom Event come to pass?

What is closest to the year that the Great Plains will cease to be productive as an Agricultural Region due to depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer? (20% or less of current total grain produced)



2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later The Great Plains will remain productive for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses All Data 3

(6.25%) 2

(4.17%) 4

(8.33%) 0

(0%) 5

(10.42%) 17

(35.42%) 16

(33.33%) 1

(2.08%) 6.24 48

According to general Doomer Wisdom, this will not occur until 2025 or later. I would agree with that except for the energy issue, having enough energy to pump the water UP from an aquifer that drops lower each year. That factor plus availability of Fossil Fuel based fertilizer brings the crash date for Midwest Grain Production closer to 2020 than 2025, IMHO.

Ordering few US Big Shities currently threatened by drought west of the Mississippi, Vegas comes out on top as expected.

Order these USA cities from 1st to last on which will be 50% depopulated from its current population level.



1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Standard Deviation Responses Weighted Average Las Vegas 31

(68.89%) 8

(17.78%) 2

(4.44%) 3

(6.67%) 0

(0%) 1

(2.22%) 0

(0%) 10.35 45 1.58 / 7 Los Angeles 0

(0%) 12

(26.67%) 14

(31.11%) 5

(11.11%) 8

(17.78%) 3

(6.67%) 3

(6.67%) 4.75 45 3.67 / 7 Fresno 4

(8.89%) 7

(15.56%) 9

(20%) 9

(20%) 9

(20%) 6

(13.33%) 1

(2.22%) 2.82 45 3.76 / 7 Phoenix 8

(17.78%) 13

(28.89%) 7

(15.56%) 8

(17.78%) 7

(15.56%) 2

(4.44%) 0

(0%) 3.96 45 2.98 / 7 Abequerque 1

(2.22%) 3

(6.67%) 10

(22.22%) 8

(17.78%) 9

(20%) 11

(24.44%) 3

(6.67%) 3.7 45 4.47 / 7 El Paso 1

(2.22%) 1

(2.22%) 2

(4.44%) 8

(17.78%) 9

(20%) 16

(35.56%) 8

(17.78%) 5.1 45 5.29 / 7 Salt Lake City 0

(0%) 1

(2.22%) 1

(2.22%) 4

(8.89%) 3

(6.67%) 6

(13.33%) 30

(66.67%) 9.81 45 6.27 / 7

Obviously none of these places are real good choices, but at least for this bunch if you are committed to staying in this neighborhood, this might be a good time to consider converting to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. lol.

Can Water Desalination make a difference here? There's PLENTY of Water Earth of course, Oceans FULL of it, even if it is a little warm and being pumped full of radionucleotides by the Radiation Supply Warehouse at Fuck-You-Shima. Just gotta take the Salt out of the water and we are SAVED!

Of course, the first problem here is that desalination is energy intensive by itself, then after that it really only works in coastal cities. Anywhere else you have to expend still more energy to pump it uphill from Sea Level.

What do Doomers think about the plausibility of Desalination as a solution to Fresh Water Resource Depletion?

Can Water Desalinization make a signficant difference for coastal cities in maintaining potable water supplies?



Yes No Maybe for a short while, but not for long. It depends how large the city is. Other Standard Deviation Responses All Data 4

(8.33%) 13

(27.08%) 27

(56.25%) 4

(8.33%) 0

(0%) 9.69 48

Most Doomers think it can make a significant difference in coastal cities for a while. I disagree with that. Only a very few of the richest cities in the world like Riyahd in Saudi Arabia or Los Angeles could even get credit to build these plants to begin with, and then as soon as the monetary system and energy distribution systems fail, they fail right along with them. It's completely insignficant as a solution on the grand scale. Epic Fail and waste of what resources we have left here.

So, all in all the Water Issues are not shaping up well, and based on the fact Homo Sap can't live more than around 3 days without Water and the crops we grow for food need copious amounts to produce high yields, it looks likely the Dieoff of Homo Sap and population reduction will begin between 2020 and 2025. How far down it will go is anybody's guess, but once it gets rolling my guess is that it will move along pretty fast.

Next Collapse Survey TM coming soon to a Laptop Near You: Terrorism!