Hey there, everyone! Welcome (or welcome back if you’ve been here before) to my blog! It’s a special day as I’m here to share my thoughts on the 20 Castaways who will compete for the title of Sole Survivor and the million dollar prize that goes with it Survivor’s 39th season, entitled Island of the Idols!

First off, I should introduce myself for those of you who don’t know me! I’m Austin, I’m 22, and I recently graduated from the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor and just started Grad School! I’m also involved with Survivor Michigan, which you can check out here! We’re airing our second season right now, and I played on our third, so I was able to put my Survivor knowledge into practice! I’m also a small part of Survivor Michigan’s podcast where I share my bi-weekly Top 5 Moments from the latest episode. I have to give a MASSIVE shout out to you guys if you’re reading this because you three inspire me to keep blogging!

This season is going to be super interesting because it features the return of two Survivor legends: Sandra Diaz-Twine, the only person to win Survivor twice (in Pearl Islands and Heroes vs Villains), and Boston Rob Mariano, the first four-time player and the winner of Redemption Islands! However, they won’t be competing for the million dollar prize, but they will be living on an island separate from the Castaways where they will periodically test them at their “Island of the Idols” for the chance to receive an advantage. I think that this is a really fascinating twist, and it will definitely be good tv!

Let’s get on with why you’re here! This post, the first of the season, is a little different from the rest of my usual posts as it’s just a cast assessment and not power rankings (the latter of which I’ll get into next week!). Today, I’m basically going to be going through each of the 20 Castaways and offering my thoughts on how I think they’ll do in the game — Who will they align with? Who will they butt heads with? Will they be great strategically? Will they go far? Can and will they win? It’s fun, because I’m usually super-duper flat-out wrong. Though I’ve had some successes in the past (I’m 2 for 7 on Winner Picks as of Edge of Extinction…), this is all conjecture. I’m not spoiled in any way (and I’d like to keep it that way, so PLEASE don’t spoil me.)

So, without any further ado, here are my thoughts on the Castaways (in alphabetical order by Tribe)! (Side note: Lairo and Vokai are quite possibly the most BADASS Tribe names in all of US Survivor history, and Lairo’s Buff is awesome.)

Let’s begin with the Lairo Tribe, wearing orange!

AARON MEREDITH | GYM OWNER | 36 | WARWICK, RI

Aaron reminds me a lot of Chris Underwood from Edge of Extinction but with the muscles of Joe Anglim. I think he’s going to be a fantastic social and physical player — although he said in his Twitter video that he wants to downplay his strength — and could be a real threat to win. I definitely see him connecting with his Tribe easily, but the pitfalls of being a great social player come to light when he will inevitably betray or be betrayed. He’s a superfan who’s been watching since the start, so I think that he will definitely brew up some strategic plans that nobody will see coming, but I wonder if we might see him struggle to tow the line between good-guy-Aaron and playing-to-win-Aaron. Honestly, I don’t think he will make it super deep, but at the very least should make it through the swap phase. Someone who stands out physically like Aaron will always is perceived as a big threat, especially if they have strategic chops like he does. No matter what, I’m rooting for him and I think he’ll do pretty well and be a likable character.

PREDICTION: Early Merge

CHELSEA WALKER | VIDEO CONTENT CREATOR | 27 | LOS ANGELES, CA

If you’ve been following me on Twitter at all since the cast reveal.. you’ll know that I’m a VERY big Chelsea fan. I watched her application video from 6(!) years ago on Youtube when I was in High School. Now, she’s finally on the show, so naturally I’m gonna root hard for her. I think that she would be an absolutely phenomenal winner and I am confident that she has the skills to do so. She’s a MASSIVE superfan and knows her stuff, so I don’t see her really struggling with the strategic or social aspects of the game. ESPECIALLY considering that she’ll possibly end up on the Island of the Idols with the legendary Boston Rob and Sandra, she would definitely take their lessons to heart. I think that Chelsea’s biggest struggle will be toning down her energy during the early stages of the game. Then, she can assess before she assassinates, as Jeff Probst said in her Twitter video. We’ve had 4 male winners in a row at this point, and I think we’re due for a badass manipulator and all-around superfan to win. You know, she kind of reminds me of Pia Miranda from the latest Australian Survivor season. If she can be a smiling assassin who charms the pants off of everyone and then slits their throats, she could go deep. It’s entirely possible that she pulls a Jacob Derwin from Ghost Island and blows up her game early, but I think she’s savvy enough not to. Go Chelsea!

Prediction: Final 3 (Winner Pick)

DEAN KOWALSKI | TECH SALES | 28 | NEW YORK, NY

I like Dean a lot, and I think that his tribemates will as well. He seems like a good dude who will be able to get along with everyone and not make waves around camp — the core of a good social player. He’s definitely a challenge asset as well, so I see that working in his favor. He reminds me a lot of Michael Yerger from Ghost Island, and though Dean is a bit older, I think he will fall into the trap of him wanting to play a strategic and manipulative game but the rest of his tribemates will either see him as a little too cocky, or maybe they won’t take him seriously enough. His Twitter video really shows a great awareness of where he could stumble, especially regarding the perceptions of someone in his line of work in sales so I think that Dean will be savvy enough to subvert expectations. Time will tell, but I’m not sleeping on Dean!

Prediction: Early Merge

ELAINE STOTT | FACTORY WORKER | 41 | ROCKHOLDS, NJ

I keep saying that these players remind me of past players and that’s not going to stop with Elaine! She reminds me of a vivacious and fierce Lauren Rimmer from HHH. Elaine is immediately charismatic and likable. Though she’s a little older, she has this youthful energy that is unavoidable, and I think that she will be an amazing social force in this game. She said in her Twitter video that she wants to catch more fish than Rupert… well, that’s a tall order but I’m here for it! I think she’ll be able to bro down with the guys and empower the girls, and she will be so much fun to watch. I worry that down the line she’ll be in a spot where she has a lot of connections and will be targeted, or she’ll try to make a key move too late in the game. But, I could easily see her going far and I hope she does. She has a really great story and I think that it will only get greater if she pulls it out.

Prediction: Mid-Merge

ELIZABETH BEISEL | OLYMPIC MEDALIST | 26 | SAUNDERSTOWN, RI

Elizabeth has been featured in a lot of the promo material for the season so far, and for good reason — she’s really fun to watch! I think that she, like Elaine, has this energy to her that will drawn her tribemates in. She’s also a great physical competitor as a recently-retired Olympic Swimmer, so she should have no problems in water challenges. Her Twitter video revealed some great insight. She’s so enthusiastic and bright that I worry it might turn off some people, but if she can collect herself, she could be a great social threat. I think she’s so smart to not tell anyone she’s an Olympian, and if she can downplay her strength a lot more easily than, say, Aaron, she can rely on her charisma to bring allies to her cause. I think she would be a fantastic winner and definitely should go far. Elizabeth has it all, and her game knowledge, charisma, and grit will be a deadly combination.

Prediction: Early Merge

KARISHMA PATEL | PERSONAL INJURY LAWYER | 37 | HOUSTON, TX

Karishma is AWESOME. FIRCE. DETERMINED. Everything I like to see in a Survivor player. However.. I’m a little worried for her chances. She seems like she could come out guns blazing and her here-for-me-and-me-only ethos might push potential allies away. She reminds me A LOT of Angelina Keeley and Natalie Cole from David vs Goliath, themselves fierce negotiators and competitive powerhouses, and I think that Karishma will need to realize how she might be perceived similarly and work quickly to subvert those perceptions. I totally think that she CAN do well, it’s just a matter of WILL she do well. Her Twitter video highlights her strengths as a lawyer and being able to convince people, so I think that if she can take a page out of Angelina’s negotiating playbook, smooth out the edges, and make some good allies, she could surprise me.

Prediction: Early Pre-Merge

MISSY BYRD | AIR FORCE VETERAN | 24 | TACOMA, WA

Missy is an early favorite who I didn’t see coming. She’s only 24 (two years older than me) and has done SO much in her life. Surviving not only Air Force basic training but also developing a brain tumor while there? Insane. I think that Missy will bring that grit and definitive badassery to the game. She’s a triple threat, with some major game and life knowledge, physical strength, and mental fortitude. I think where she will really shine will be her social game — I mean, anyone who describes herself as ‘decently dope’ as she did in her Twitter video has to be pretty cool. I could totally see myself being captivated by Missy’s story and wanting to align with her so much that I’d struggle to vote her out, and I see that happening in this game. I would not be surprised in the least if she won, nor if she was taken out around the 7th-place mark because she’s such a big threat. I can’t wait to see how her game plays out!

Prediction: Mid-Merge

RONNIE BARDAH | PRO POKER PLAYER | 35 | HENDERSON, NV

Ronnie is a cool dude. He gets bonus points right off the bat because I grew up near where he lives now! His Twitter video immediately shows his duplicitous dual nature as both a mastermind poker player but also a big softie. I think that if Ronnie can play up his social game and maybe take a strategic backseat early on, he can make the early bonds that will allow him to be in a tight-knight alliance that he can maneuver from the sidelines. If he starts to overtly be too diabolical, he will be branded as a threat and taken out. I think that Ronnie has a great amount of potential if he can show people the side of him that will keep them close. I think he’s the kind of player that you really want to go far but gets taken out right before the Merge. I hope I’m wrong and that he goes deep, but I just think that he’ll be seen as too big of a threat.

Prediction: Late Pre-Merge

TOM LAIDLAW | FORMER NHL PLAYER | 60 | GREENWICH, CT

Tom is the very first Canadian to make it on Survivor (which also brings up the side question of why there isn’t a Canadian Survivor to complement BBCan), and OF COURSE he’s a retired NHL player. He actually played for the New York Rangers, which is my dad’s favorite team. So, that’s pretty neat. I like Tom because not only will he be a major physical asset, but I think he will be a pretty good social player as well. Lairo seems stacked physically out of the gate, so if he gets in good with the more physical players like Aaron, Missy, Elizabeth, Elaine, and Dean, he could find himself in an easy majority. However, he is the oldest on his Tribe by 29 years, so he might have a harder time connecting with some of the younger players. Plus, he could just be seen as a big threat right out of the gate if he comes out and wants to be a leader at the start. I don’t see him going very far, but I would not be opposed to it in the slightest. He’s a lot of fun and if he can avoid the pitfalls I see him encountering I’ll be very happy.

Prediction: Late Pre-Merge

VINCE MOUA | ADMISSIONS COUNSELOR | 27 | PALO ALTO, CA

VINCE!!!! I love this guy. He’s got such an entertaining presence and a fascinating story that is super enthralling. He’s fantastic for representation of both the LGBT and Asian-American communities as well, which is always great to see, and this is something that he touches on in his Twitter video. We have such a diverse cast this season and I’m so excited to see what Vince brings. I think that he will find a lot of success in this game if he can pass the massive hurdle of being on a Tribe with a lot of physical people. If he can pull his weight in challenges and not come across as too naive or shifty, he can draw people in and work his shamanic magic (oh yeah, according to his bio he’s apparently a shaman or something? Rad!) to go deep. Vince is super likable and has this tenacity to him that will benefit him in a long game like Survivor. I REALLY hope that he goes far, and even though I’m pulling for a girl to win, I would go nuts for Vince.

Prediction: Final 3

Competing against them, we have the Vokai Tribe in Purple!

JASON LINDEN | PERSONAL INJURY LAWYER | 32 | NEW YORK, NY

The second of two Personal Injury Lawyers on this season (what are the odds?), Jason seems to be this season’s iteration of the ‘neurotic nerd’ archetype. As the last season these players would have seen would be David vs Goliath, being just as likable and genuine as Christian Hubicki could be a fatal part of Jason’s gameplay. I think that even though he loves Survivor, he might come across as too eager to play the game right off the bat and will be targeted for it. There seem to be a lot of level-headed people on Vokai, and I think that that might conflict with Jason’s affable and quick-mouthed personality. In his Twitter video, he says that he doesn’t give off the best first impression (not a good sign), so he plans to use the ‘shut-the-heck-up’ strategy to make sure that he lays low. That might work… but he has to balance being in the background with being present enough to not seem shadier than he’ll already come across. I want Jason to succeed, but I don’t see it happening.

Prediction: Early Pre-Merge

LAUREN BECK | NANNY | 28 | GLENDALE, CA

This season has such a strong female cast, and Lauren is no exception. She is a MAJOR threat to win as a massive superfan and empathetic individual. She’s going to be able to connect with just about everyone and bring the enthusiasm and entertainment that’s necessary to keep allies together and morale strong. She’s never going to give up, and I think that people will underestimate her and get completely surprised by the level of sophistication that Lauren’s game can bring. Her Twitter video pays homage to all of the black women who paved the way for her, and she will do her predecessors justice. I think that she could prove to be even better than players like Cirie. She’s going to have to be careful and not end up in an unwinnable situation, but I think that she can do it and have fun while playing a great game. I’m totally rooting for Lauren!

Prediction: Late Merge

MOLLY BYMAN | LAW STUDENT | 27 | DURHAM, NC

Molly is another really awesome potential winner. Something about her just gives off this Sole Survivor vibe, you know? Jeff puts it better than I can in Molly’s Twitter video. She’s super sharp-minded and gregarious, and I think that her charm and wit will be instrumental in bringing together an alliance that sticks together. I think that if she comes across as TOO analytical she might make others wary of her, but I see her being a really likable and fun person to have on a Tribe. I think she’s on a really great Tribe to start off that will complement her strengths and contain like-minded players, so my outlook on Molly’s game is very positive. I absolutely see her going deep and potentially winning!

Prediction: Late Merge

KELLEE KIM | MBA STUDENT | 29 | PHILADELPHIA, PA

Kellee is another exceptionally smart player with a great academic background that gives her a great head on her shoulders and a lot of tactics to use in the game. However, I think that she’ll fall victim to others’ perceptions of her. She’s SO smart that she won’t be able to not act smart. I think that her Twitter video shows that she could have a major weakness in her philosophy towards the game, so if Jeff’s observations are accurate, Kellee might struggle early on. She seems like a LOT of fun and will be great on camera, but I just don’t see her meshing as well with this group on Vokai than some of the other players.

Prediction: Early Pre-Merge

TOMMY SHEEHAN | TEACHER | 26 | LONG BEACH, NY

Oh man, I love Tommy! He’s instantly likable and charming, and combines the best of physicality and social prowess. His skills as a 4th-grade teacher will come into play, and his Twitter video details his reasoning for being a teacher and that is so relatable that I think that it’s going to be hard for people NOT to want to keep Tommy around, at least until the Merge. He definitely is a gamer, though, and he’ll play hard. I see him playing a really great and well-rounded game and making it so close but finally being taken out because he’s just such a big threat. I definitely see him bonding with the other education-minded Vokais like Jamal, Kellee, and Molly — hopefully that will help him form a good alliance. I’m really excited to see how he plays!

Prediction: Late Merge

JANET CARBIN | CHIEF LIFEGUARD | 59 | PALM BAY, FL

I think that Janet is an incredibly fascinating player. She has immense potential as a leader, strategist, social player, and challenge beast. However, there’s a reason why I’m going to rank her pretty low, and that’s because I see her just trying to push her way through to a leadership role too early and that rubbing her Tribe the wrong way. I’m really hoping I’m wrong — and I very well could be — because I think that she’d be a lot of fun to watch. Her Twitter video showcases just why I think she can do well or do poorly — she has this charisma and grit that translates really well to Survivor, but we saw something similar with Natalie Cole in David vs Goliath — so, I’m a bit wary.

Prediction: Early Pre-Merge

DAN SPILO | TALENT MANAGER | 48 | LOS ANGELES, CA

Dan is another player who I think that like Janet could go deep or be out early, and really because I’m getting down to the wire, I’m putting him lower than is maybe realistic. As a talent manager, I think he has a great strength in getting people to do what he wants while not forcing them. However, I think he could come out of the gate too quickly and come off as a mastermind. His strategy featured in his Twitter video of making sure he’s always with the largest group at any time is sound in theory, but I’d worry about not establishing those important one-on-one connections that can set you up for the long haul. Either way, I’m really excited to see what Dan brings to the table.

Prediction: Early Pre-Merge

JACK NICHTING | GRAD STUDENT | 23 | NEWPORT NEWS, VA

Jack is only a year older than I am, so that’s pretty much reason number one why I’m really rooting for him! I need another young Survivor winner to happen! He reminds me so much of myself. He’s going to struggle of dispelling the perceptions of being like Joe Anglim — hence, he mentioned in his Twitter video that he wants to play more like Fabio and intentionally didn’t learn how to make fire without flint. That’s ballsy, and I love it. I think that Jack, as a superfan, will probably come into the game thinking he’s got it all locked in, but then will realize the emotional toll it can take. He’s the youngest on this cast, and if he can find someone a little older and wiser to balance out his naivete and youthful energy, he could propel himself quite far. I’m naturally inclined to think that he WILL do quite well in the game, because I think that he has the physical and emotional strength to weather the storm and play a sophisticated game that doesn’t crumble under the typical mistakes that players make. I’m definitely rooting for Jack!

Prediction: Final 3

JAMAL SHIPMAN | ADMISSIONS COUNSELOR | 33 | PROVIDENCE, RI

Jamal is a guy that I just need to go super duper deep. He seems like an absolute hoot and I would love to just chill with him. Like Vince, he’s an Admissions Councilor and is also passionate about education. He’s a big dude, but totally connected to people emotionally. I think that he’s going to be an amazing physical and social player who will use his skills from his profession to steer people in the direction that he wants to go without them knowing it. I think that his big weakness could be that as the numbers dwindle he’s too big of a threat, but I think that he can handle it. I’m very, very high on Jamal, and I really want him to do well!

Prediction: Mid-Merge

NOURA SALMAN | ENTREPRENEUR | 36 | NORTH POTOMAC, NC

Jeff says it best. Noura is a wildcard. She’s intense yet energetic and seems introspective yet all over the place. I relate to what she said in her Twitter video about overextending herself emotionally, and I worry that she won’t be able to contain herself and that she’ll get swept up in the game’s darker side. She stands out a bit among the women on her Tribe since she’s kind of in the middle of the pack age-wise, but perhaps she’ll be able to connect with people like Kellee due to their similar lines of work or Jack and Jamal due to their similar social strengths. I’m really excited to see how Noura does because I think that she’ll either be out quickly or make a run for it. Obviously, I’d prefer the latter, but you never know!

Prediction: Late Pre-Merge

That just about sums up my thoughts on all 20 Castaways for Survivor: Island of the Idols! I’m extremely excited for this season. I know a lot of fans are looking forward to the big 4-0 next year more than this, but I am in love with this cast. I genuinely want them all to do well, even though that’s impossible! I think that bringing in Rob and Sandra in a new way and making the players really WORK for advantages is a great twist, and I’m just really excited to see what happens and just how wrong my predictions are!

Catch the premiere of Survivor: Island of the Idols, entitled, “I Vote You Out and That’s It” on Wednesday, September 25th at 7 PM Central, 8 PM Eastern! Whoever said this hopefully didn’t say it to someone’s face — that’d be a bad move!

I’ll see you all on Monday, September 30th (that’s right! New day! Changing things up this time!), for my first week of Power Rankings, where I’ll assess each remaining Castaway and rank them within their Tribes based on who has the most power, and who’s most likely to get eliminated next! PLEASE bear with me as Grad School and life often gets in the way, so I might have to occasionally push my posts back a little bit. I hope you all understand!

Also, one last thing if you’ve made it this far. I’m currently looking to re-brand my blog a little bit… I think it needs a better name than “Austin’s Survivor Power Rankings” and definitely needs a better WordPress domain than austinsurvivorstrategyblog. If you have any ideas, please let me know!

Thanks so much for reading, and if you want to stay updated on the goings-on of the blog, ask me questions, or find out more about me personally, follow me on Twitter!

-Austin