Howdy, travelers! With the completion of the Global Challenge, the Ultra Bonus has now begun! This three-week event brings new Pokémon to Eggs and Raid Battles, along with the release of many new Shiny Pokémon. The focus of the first week is Johto Pokémon, with five Unown forms (U, L, T, R, A) appearing in Eggs, the return of Raikou, Suicune, and Entei to Raid Battles, and the release of Shiny Sentret and Gligar. Silph Researchers began scouring their local areas for these species to determine their shiny rates and whether they differ from other species. Let’s take a look at what we’ve found so far!

9/7/2019 6:00 UTC Final Update

Shiny data for this event has some peculiarities. Here’s the raw data for the entire event aggregated together:

Species Shinies/Encounters 99% CI (1 in X) 54 / 19,297 260 – 520 36 / 6,205 115 – 275

Gligar’s 99% confidence interval excludes the standard shiny rate of 1 in 450. A closer look at the rough time series for Gligar leads to an obvious conclusion: Gligar’s shiny rate changed mid-event. For approximately the first 24 hours, Gligar was using the standard 1 in 450 rate, but this was later increased to around 1 in 150.

Separating Gligar encountered more than 24 hours after the start of the event, researchers collected 33 shinies in 4,234 encounters, leading to a 99% confidence interval of 1 in 85 to 1 in 210 and an average shiny rate of 1 in 130 for this time period.

Thanks for reading, and see you on the road!