What an opening week of Football, topped off by that Saints Texans game on Monday night. Desaun Watson is incredible, and his head coach is garbage. I could have sworn I saw that since Watson has entered the league the Texans have blown a lead with under 1 minute 4 times following Watson putting them ahead? I could have made that up in my head but I’m going to run with it cause it fits my O’Brien stinks narrative. Anyway after a solid week 1 for the Big Dog lets make some more money in week 2 because daddy needs a new pair of shoes. (Not just an expression either, I legit need new shoes so I really need to keep winning.)

Thursday night we have two NFC South opponents, both coming off week 1 loses looking to right the ship in Carolina. When I saw this match up I was pretty sure I knew where I wanted to put my money. The Panthers, at home coming off a tough loss to a good Rams team had me feeling good about them covering. Then when I looked at the line and saw they were 1 TD favorites and it made me take a step back. Not because I didn’t think they could win, I’m not a huge fan of betting on touch down favorites. It was then I knew I had to watch the Bucs vs 49ers game to make my final decision. After watching Jameis Winston’s inept performance against the 49ers, I don’t know how anyone could put money on them. Not only was he inaccurate and loose with the football, he looked legitimately frightened at many times during the game. When the 49ers were able to generate pressure it’s like he became a chicken with his head cut off and every time you thought he was about to turn the ball over. I mean just look at this pick six that clinches the game for the 49ers.

Jameis Winston with the game-clinching TD pass…for the 49ers pic.twitter.com/ieOH4hE5Vd — Pick Six Podcast (@picksixpod) September 8, 2019

Along with Winston having a bad opening game the Bucs defense didn’t look particularly good. I think the 49ers had 3 TDs called back on them in the 1st half which allowed the Bucs to stick around. The Bucs defense did force two turnovers, but they were bailed out a few times by the 49ers 11 penalties.

Having said this I also watched the Panthers game and wouldn’t say their performance was anything to write home about. Cam Newton looked very inaccurate and he still looks scared to push the ball down field. Considering he got injured in the preseason and had off season shoulder surgery I think he will get better as the year goes on, but week 1 he didn’t look great. I would look for Newton to run a little bit more against the Bucs as he only ran the ball 3 times for -2 yards against the Rams. My biggest reason for liking the Panthers is CMC. I just don’t see how the Bucs are going to stop him. He was the Panthers only offense against the Rams, and if Newton can play even average they should have no trouble scoring. I could look dumb and Arians could right the Bucs ship and come in and get the win in Carolina. However based on what I saw in week 1 and, really every other game of his career, I just don’t think Jameis Winston is a franchise quarterback. He is far to loose with the ball and even when he has good protection he is often inaccurate. Since these teams are division rivals we have some good data to look at how each quarterback performs against the other team.

Jameis’s career averages versus the Panthers: 3-4 Rec

CMP% TD INT YDS SK FMB RU YDS RU TD 62 1 1.3 266 3.1 0.85 21.4 .14

Cam’s career averages versus the Bucs: 9-4 Rec

CMP% TD INT YDS SK FMB RU YDS RU TD 65 1.5 1 225 2.2 0.23 39.2 .69

Cam has a better record, better passing numbers, less turnovers and better rushing numbers. Last I checked books had the Panthers at -7(+100), and to me that’s an easy bet.

Pick: CAR -7

Prediction: CAR 27 TB 17