ALMOST all university applicants now know where they will be going in the autumn. As recruitment winds down, two changes are apparent. The first is a rise in the proportion of candidates who found a university via “clearing”, having already received their A-level results, which is up to 9.2% from 7.5% at the same stage in 2013. The second is a big rise in the number of unconditional offers, where entry does not depend on obtaining certain grades. In 2013, just 1.1% of applicants received an unconditional offer. This year 22.9% did.

Together the changes indicate the growing power of students. Most funding now follows them, since they get government loans of £9,250 ($12,000) a year to pay for tuition. From 2012 the Tory-Lib Dem coalition government gradually removed caps on the number of students universities could recruit. This allowed universities to expand, and thus to attract more students from poor backgrounds.

It also forced them to compete harder for applicants. The government hoped this would drive up teaching standards and lower costs. As expected, universities have begun to pay more attention to student satisfaction and have invested heavily in their campuses. Students increasingly use clearing to gain entry to higher-ranked institutions if they outperform expectations. There are even signs that universities are beginning to compete on price—albeit surreptitiously, by offering more scholarships, rather than by cutting their tuition fees.

But universities are also competing in other, unexpected ways. Some are said to be offering inducements such as gym memberships and iPads. University advertisements are an increasingly common sight during the summer (including, this year, from Exeter University, a member of the prestigious Russell Group). This season Portsmouth University is advertising on the kit of its local football team.

The sharp rise in the number of unconditional offers suggests that universities are also competing by lowering their entry bar. “Giving out unconditional offers just to put ‘bums on seats’ undermines the credibility of the university system,” warned Sam Gyimah, the universities minister. It is not clear whether universities are making offers to students who are unsuited to higher education. But Mr Gyimah nevertheless has reason to be uncomfortable. Applicants with unconditional offers are 23% more likely to miss their predicted A-level results by more than two grades. Schools therefore dislike unconditional offers, because they make it more difficult to motivate their pupils.

The issue could turn into a test of the new higher-education regulatory system. Nicola Dandridge, chief executive of the Office for Students, the regulator, says she is concerned by the rise in unconditional offers, and will issue recommendations in the next couple of months after studying their impact. The government hopes that a new teaching ranking, which includes data on student satisfaction and graduate outcomes, will dissuade admissions staff from taking applicants who are not cut out for university.

Yet competition for students will only increase. A dip in the birth-rate at the turn of the millennium means that from 2017 to 2020 the number of 18- to 20-year-olds will drop by 150,000. With a review of university funding coming up, the future for English institutions is uncertain. As one university official notes, “It is not clear how comfortable the public is with universities acting like businesses.”