Fremantle will be the AFL’s biggest sliders in 2019, if this tried and generally true mathematical formula carries any weight.

The ‘Pythagorean wins’ theory contextualises scoring across the whole season to determine whether teams over or underperformed in the win/loss column.

Using the formula, Fox Sportsconcluded Fremantle should have finished 2018 with just 5.7 wins, placing them 15th ahead of St Kilda (16th), Gold Coast (17th) and Carlton (18th).

And on the basis of their performances last year, the Dockers are rated the team most likely to fall in 2019.

Of course, the analysis doesn’t consider changes to a team’s squad.

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The acquisitions of Jesse Hogan, Rory Lobb, Reece Conca and Travis Colyer will help the club’s depth and scoring potency, while coach Ross Lyon was forced into playing kids following several injuries to key players.

But the formula has proven itself generally true the last few seasons, predicting 12 of 14 sharp rises and falls (based on an ‘actual’ and ‘predicted’ win/loss difference of 2.5 games) since 2010.

West Coast is expected to win 14.9 games - down from 16 last year while Brisbane (8.6 wins, up from five) could be the league’s biggest bolter.

Play Video The Dockers coach says premierships are won in pre-season The West Australian Video The Dockers coach says premierships are won in pre-season

THE 2019 AFL LADDER, ACCORDING TO ‘PYTHAGOREAN WINS’ THEORY

1. Richmond (16.8 wins)

2. Geelong (16.3 wins)

3. Melbourne (16.3 wins)

4. West Coast (14.9 wins)

5. Collingwood (14.8 wins)

6. Hawthorn (14.7 wins)

7. GWS (13.7 wins)

8. Sydney (12.9 wins)

9. North Melbourne (12.8 wins)

10. Port Adelaide (12.5 wins)

11. Essendon (12 wins)

12. Adelaide (11.8 wins)

13. Brisbane (8.6 wins)

14. Western Bulldogs (5.9 wins)

15. Fremantle (5.7 wins)

16. St Kilda (5.6 wins)

17. Gold Coast (2.7 wins)

18. Carlton (2.6 wins)