NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Military spending is up across the military alliance and its response force has tripled in size to 40,000 from 13,000 | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images NATO chief: Numbers don’t add up to a new Cold War Jens Stoltenberg sees the Alliance’s posture toward Russia as ‘defensive and proportionate.’

For Jens Stoltenberg, the former Norwegian prime minister and one-time government statistician who is now the 13th secretary general of NATO, even the highest-stakes military and political problems can often be reduced to simple math.

Asked in an interview with POLITICO if he worried that the four new NATO battalions to be stationed in Eastern Europe and the Baltics might be viewed by Russia as a provocation, Stoltenberg said he was confident that Moscow could count.

“There is no way battalions can be seen as a threat against divisions on the Russian side,” he said in the interview at NATO headquarters, at the end of a two-day conference of defense ministers that focused heavily on Russia’s increasingly aggressive posture.

“There is no way that can be seen as a threat,” Stoltenberg said of the 3,000 to 4,000 soldiers that will form the new battalions, including one in Poland that will be led by the United States. “It is a defensive and proportionate response.”

There is the desire by Eastern European allies to draw Ukraine closer to NATO, a goal that is not shared universally across the Continent, particularly in the Netherlands.

Statistically speaking, there is no argument — divisions have at least 10,000 troops — but NATO has given the Kremlin a whole bunch of other numbers to chew on, which clearly make “defensive and proportionate” a matter of perspective.

Military spending is up across the alliance and the NATO response force has tripled in size to 40,000 from 13,000. In addition to the battalions in Poland and the Baltics, a new multinational brigade will be stationed in Romania to answer threats in southeastern Europe and NATO has stepped up naval operations in the Black Sea.

“We have implemented the biggest reinforcement of our collective defense since the end of the Cold War because of what happened in Ukraine and partly also in Georgia,” Stoltenberg said. “But what we do is defensive, it’s proportionate and it’s fully in line with our international commitments, because we don’t want, we don’t seek confrontation with Russia.”

Russian buildup

When it comes to talking points, Stoltenberg’s discipline is remarkable. He also sees promise and possibility where the word others might reach for is “quagmire.”

“The situation in Afghanistan is challenging,” he said in response to a question at a news conference on Thursday, adding shortly afterward: “At the same time, we have seen that the Afghan national army and security forces have been able to make a lot of progress.”

“The situation in Libya is not easy,” he said, in response to another question Thursday, adding later: “We are focused on how we can help Libya build the necessary security institutions and hopefully, we can be able to start that work at some stage.”

The main focus, however, has been Russia. And in his recent public remarks Stoltenberg has recounted, dutifully, the numerous examples of Russian aggression. The invasion and annexation of Crimea, the support for the separatist war in eastern Ukraine, the deployment of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad.

“Over a long period of time, we have seen a substantial military buildup by Russia and we have seen them modernize their military capabilities and most importantly, we have seen them willing to use military force against neighbors: Crimea, Ukraine — but also Georgia,” Stoltenberg said at one recent news conference.

As the civilian leader of the world’s most powerful military alliance, his messages are often political.

“NATO will not counter propaganda with propaganda,” he said in response to a question about Russia’s disinformation efforts. “Our message is that in the long run the truth will prevail so the best answer to propaganda is not more propaganda but the best answer to propaganda is facts, the truth and open democratic debate.”

Similarly, in the interview with POLITICO, he insisted that NATO was empowered and not encumbered by its respect for international norms.

“We are 28 democracies,” he said. “We are open societies with different opinions, different parliaments, different political parties and of course sometimes that contributes to different opinions. That’s part of being democratic open societies and sometimes it also means that decisions take some time.

“But this is not a weakness,” he continued. “This is a strength. I am absolutely certain that in the long run democracy is stronger than autocracy, that open societies are stronger than closed societies and that open democratic societies will prosper more than closed undemocratic societies. And I think the Cold War proved exactly that.”

On the defensive

Stoltenberg will have to navigate some of those differences in coming months, including a push by Turkey to end NATO’s naval operations in the Aegean Sea by the end of the year – a move that other European allies oppose.

Then there is the desire by eastern European allies to draw Ukraine closer to NATO, a goal that is not shared universally across the Continent, particularly in the Netherlands where voters in a referendum opposed an EU-Ukraine trade agreement.

So far, Stoltenberg has shown an ability, when necessary, to walk a rhetorical tight rope.

“Ukraine has not applied for membership,” he told POLITICO. “Ukraine has underlined itself that this is a process that will take time before they will apply. They are now focused on implementing reforms to be able to meet NATO standards and then make decisions on applying for membership later on.”

The NATO chief said he hoped the new American president — whomever that might be — would continue recent efforts to increase the U.S. military presence in Europe.

He said he had met last week with President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine, and also that NATO was supportive of efforts to implement the Minsk 2 peace accord to end the conflict in the east. “NATO will continue to provide support for Ukraine, political support and practical support,” Stoltenberg said.

The NATO chief also said he hoped the new American president — whomever that might be — would continue recent efforts to increase the U.S. military presence in Europe.

“I hope that we will continue to see a United States that is stepping up its efforts and presence in Europe,” he said. “I welcome that because after the end of the Cold War, the U.S. reduced the number of troops in Europe and reduced its military activities in Europe because the tensions went down. Now tensions have increased, we see a more assertive Russia.”

But he did not stray far from his main point.

“NATO’s core task primary responsibility is the defense of allies, our territories and populations and we have for close to seven decades been able to do exactly that,” Stoltenberg said.

“My message is that we don’t see any immediate threat against any NATO ally, and NATO is focused on how to balance the need for strength deterrence presence but also dialogue,” he said, “contributing to keeping tensions down so therefore everything we do is measured and proportionate to try to avoid escalating tensions.”