NOR'EASTER PATTERN? | Active storm track

Atlantic Canada's active June storm track explained

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Tyler Hamilton

Meteorologist

Sunday, June 3, 2018, 8:36 PM - As we're under three weeks away from the summer solstice, we'd expect hints of summer to begin popping up across the Maritimes. But alas, we've been stuck in a rut with a perpetual trough digging from Hudson Bay and spinning towards Labrador. What's to come?

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A couple key ingredients have enhanced the threat for an active storm track for the Atlantic Canada. Let's address them, but let's be honest, summer has been missing in action across Atlantic Canada.

1. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

A key to the puzzle – a warmer ribbon of above normal sea surface temperatures has surfaced south of the Maritimes. How warm is the anomaly? Look at the latest analysis from Environment Canada:

Note, some of the temperature anomalies are upwards of 3°C, which is relatively significant, but we need another ingredient, an ample supply of cold air...

2. AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH

There's been no shortage of troughs of cold air to work with the past several weeks across the Maritimes, and the troughs have been migrating a little further south than in typical for May and June. When these pockets of cooler air push out across the Atlantic, where a weak frontal system may be present. These frontal systems have the potential to mature into more robust low pressure systems this June:





This warm water anomaly also plays a key role in the 2018 Atlantic Canada hurricane season in our summer forecast release. Check out the link for all the extra details, and what to expect for the Atlantic hurricane season ahead. The pattern isn't particularly easy to track or forecast, so yes, expect tweaks to your forecast over the coming days. For example, subtle changes to coastal front positions, and placement of the upper level trough energy will influence tracks of these spring low pressure systems.





And yes, next monday (yes, next Monday...), shows the best potential as this point for something that would qualify for a nor'easter, but model guidance is muddled and conflicted at this point, so it'll just remain on our radar, for now.

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