A new poll finds women in Michigan are less likely to support President Donald Trump than women from three other Midwest states that were key to Trump’s 2016 victory.

Results from an early election-year poll of likely voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio found Trump may face an uphill climb to win a majority of voters in these states again, especially women. Only 27% of Michigan women would vote for Trump if the election were held today, according to polling released to MLive by Baldwin Wallace University, while 53% prefer whoever becomes the Democratic Party nominee.

“I think a lot of this has to do with a variety of factors,” said Tom Sutton, director of Baldwin Wallace’s Community Research Institute. “One would be what we saw in 2018 elections, where suburban women voted in strong numbers for Democratic candidates in Congress. That’s carrying over into this election.”

The poll found 29% of Michigan voters overall are “almost certain” they will vote for Trump, but about one in 10 said their vote hinges on who Democrats nominate. Trump’s approval rating is underwater in each of the four states, with 53% of Michigan voters disapproving of the way he’s handled the presidency.

These findings come from the first of four polls planned by Baldwin Wallace University, Oakland University and Ohio Northern University. The surveys compare voter sentiment in states that sent Trump to the White House and are expected to make the difference again in 2020.

Trump narrowly won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2016, flipping reliably Democratic-voting states composing part of the “blue wall." He won each state by less than 1 percentage point after they voted for President Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008.

In Michigan, Trump won in 2016 by 10,704 votes out of nearly 4.8 million cast in 2016. His 0.23% margin of victory was the narrowest in Michigan’s presidential election history, which researchers said makes the state more likely to turn blue again in 2020.

The tight victories in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania leave Democrats hopeful that Trump’s success won’t be repeated if the party can bring out voters who either stayed home or voted for a third-party candidate last time.

Trump also flipped Ohio by 8 points, making it harder to argue the state will swing back for Democrats in 2020. Ohio had a reputation as a national bellwether in presidential elections, but it’s expected to stay red this November.

“I think Pennsylvania is a toss-up, but I question the extent to which Ohio is a battleground state,” said Lauren Copelan, associate director of BW’s Community Research Institute. “I see Michigan and Wisconsin standing out and possibly helping a Democrat win the White House.”

Women who gathered near the stops of Michigan’s Capitol last weekend for a rally commemorating the 2017 Women’s March on Washington said female voters will drive Trump out of office in 2020. U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, urged attendees to build on the same energy which elected her and other Democratic women to every top statewide office and two formerly Republican House seats in 2018.

“The reality is, we know that what we’ve done is just getting started because we have to have change in 2020,” Stabenow said. “It starts by changing the man that is in the White House.”

Cheryl Collins, a 59-year-old Okemos resident who attended the Women’s March in Lansing, said she feels women’s rights are under assault. She’s become more active in organizing other female voters and attending political events in response to Trump’s ascent to the White House.

“Women are going to stick up for us and for other people,” Collins said. “I will vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is, no matter what.”

Across all four states, women were more likely to say they are “almost certain” to vote against Trump, while men consistently had larger support for Trump.

“What we saw happening in 2018 is as much a vote against Trump as it is a vote in favor of the Democrats,” Sutton said. “That trend is continuing into 2020.”

Michigan had the largest gap in Trump support among men and women, according to the poll.

Forty-two percent of men would vote for Trump again, compared to 27% of women, the poll found. The poll found Michigan women preferred any Democratic nominee to Trump by the largest margin of the four states surveyed.

The data did not compare results from men and women within the same political party, so it’s not known how Republican women plan to vote. However, Copeland expects to see them support the president again.

“We have a tendency to treat women as a homogenous group,” Copeland said. “To be sure, women tend to be more liberal than men on social issues, but there are strong differences along party lines and by race/ethnicity After the 2016 presidential election, for instance, we learned that political party was a much stronger predictor of vote choice ... The difference-maker will be turnout by Democratic women and the ability for the Democratic candidate to court women who identify as independents.”

Trump campaign National Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany traveled across Iowa last week with the campaign’s “Women for Trump” coalition. In a statement, McEnany said the rise in the female workforce is one reason women will vote to re-elect the president this year.

“There has never been a more pro-America, pro-women, and pro-family president in modern history,” McEnany said in a statement.

A majority of Michigan voters said their minds are made up regardless of who Democrats nominate to challenge Trump. Fifty-three percent of Michigan women and 45% of independents also said they will vote against Trump no matter who opposes him in November.

Self-identified Democrats listed former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. as their top choices in the presidential primary, followed by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

Sutton said it’s not surprising that women voters’ possible disdain for Trump hasn’t necessarily translated to more support for the female Democratic candidates.

“I think the most important question for these voters is who’s going to beat Donald Trump?” Sutton said. "That, to me, is the overriding driving point for a lot of these voters. I think it’s true across the board, but for women in particular.”

The poll found Democrats and Republicans are nearly equally motivated to vote in 2020. Michiganders said their top issues include the economy, health care and security.

Sutton said Trump would be wise to focus on the continued economic growth under his administration, which would conventionally be a “slam dunk” for an incumbent president’s re-election hopes.

“The way he needs to win re-election in these states is to run completely and only on what he’s done with the economy,” Sutton said.

Voters gave Trump high marks for his handling of the economy but disapprove of his moves on healthcare, the environment, immigration, and foreign affairs. Trump could face a tough bid for re-election if the economy begins to decline, Copeland said.

“These are also four states that have been shedding jobs in the manufacturing industry, I’d imagine if the economy turns south we would see a lot of those undecided voters and independents swinging toward the Democrats,” Copeland said.

The poll also found U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, with a 10 point lead over likely GOP challenger John James. Peters had a larger margin among women voters (18 points) and independents (12 points), though 46% of independents have yet to make up their minds.

The BW poll contradicts four polls taken in 2019 that found Peters and James were essentially tied.

Voters in all four states reported both political parties are moving further apart.

Nearly half of Michigan voters said “the Democratic Party has moved too far to the left," including 53% of independents and 27% of Democrats.

Half of Michigan voters also said the Republican Party has moved too far to the right, including 46% of independents and 29% of Republicans.

Methodology

Responses were collected from Jan. 8 to Jan. 20 from 1,023 self-identified registered voters in Michigan through email using Qualtrics, an online sample aggregator.

The survey included quotas for age, education, and gender for each state based on data from the 2010 U.S. Census and the 2017 American Community Survey. It also included quotas for central metro areas and fringe metro areas at the county level using based on data from the U.S. Census, as well as the 2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties.

The survey results for all states are weighted by gender, education, race/ethnicity, and annual household income to be representative of each state’s population.

The overall margins of error were (+/-) 3.1% for Michigan, 3.1% for Ohio, 3.2% for Pennsylvania and 3.3% for Wisconsin.

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