(CNN) If House Republicans can't find a way to wrangle their always-fractious conference to support legislation that would avoid a government shutdown by Friday night, they are likely to bear the brunt of the blame for the closure and pay a serious political price as well.

The "why" is simple. Because a) the GOP controls all levers of power -- House, Senate and White House -- in Washington and b) average people are aware of a).

"Republicans control the House, they control the Senate and they control the presidency," Vermont Sen. Pat Leahy told CNN on Tuesday. "The government stays open if they want it to stay open and shuts down if they want it to shut down."

Yes, Leahy is a Democrat. But, smart Republicans know he's absolutely right.

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