This is the final part of a five-part series covering various issues surrounding the MLS CBA. You can read parts 1-4 here.

Where things stand

On several individual components, there is room for a deal to be had, but constructing the parts into a whole is easier said than done. And there are many other factors to consider. The players’ leverage is in a strike, as noted by the MLSPA, but the union is young and doesn’t have nearly the strike fund of other leagues in the US. Thus, how long could they strike for before the money runs out? MLS is loathe to see a work stoppage as it starts its 25 year with an unprecedented broadcast schedule and other planned celebrations. Additionally, the league will bring in the Liga MX All-Stars for a revamped All-Star game. Along with Champions League, Leagues Cup and Campones Cup, there are a plethora of events MLS is looking forward to using to boost its profile as a new TV deal approaches.

There is also expansion, as the league will expand to 30 teams by 2022 right before the previous TV deals expire. Thus you can see the pressure points the MLSPA can exert during these negotiations. That said, the union had similar leverage in 2015 when they agreed to a last-minute deal. Sources told me that MLS during the last negotiation was slow in coming to the table, and as the deadline approached put substantial pressure on the MLSPA to come to the table to make a deal, implying a work stoppage would be fatal to the league at the time. This time around there seem to be the same warning signs for the MLSPA.

“I don’t want to sound too pessimistic, but it’s been a little bit frustrating for the players,” Alejandro Bedoya said in November. “We’ve made proposals in the past, and we really haven’t gotten substantive responses from them [MLS).”

Foose said in response to a question I asked back in November that he also had concerns a similar process to 2015 was playing out. “This is one of my biggest fears as to how this could derail,” Foose said. “What we have seen from the league in the past is a tendency to take a very long time to react and put proposals on the table.

“We’re seeing some of that right now. If things don’t move more quickly and if the league takes the same approach that was taken the last time through, the odds of a work stoppage skyrocket. A strategy to run out the clock is not going to be viewed favorably by the player pool or by the [MLS]PA.”

It’s unclear whether negotiations have improved much since November — the parties took a break for the holidays and just got back to negotiating Tuesday. A PR offensive by the MLSPA doesn’t speak particularly well to smooth negotiations. While the official deadline is Jan. 31, the real deadline is around Feb. 15, when Champions League begins. The players are under no obligation to compete in that tournament without a new CBA, so that is where the MLSPA can really start to turn up the heat.

The lack of a CBA has clearly taken its toll on MLS front offices, who are reluctant to make major moves without knowing what rules they will operate under. Sounders general manager and President of soccer Garth Lagerwey addressed the issues in a conference call with reporters Thursday.

“The real drag is the CBA,” he said on Thursday. “We don’t know the rules, we don’t know the money we [will] have. The most important thing for us is not to jeopardize any of the good players we have. We have a very good foundation, and we do not want to be in a position where we have to offload one of the guys that helped us win an MLS Cup or MLS Cups. So we are going to be conservative until that agreement is reached.”

It’s not just Lagerwey who is concerned about the CBA. The lack of a deal is affecting teams all across the league, who are wary of spending big—especially in the TAM area—before a deal is consummated.

Interesting nugget from #NashvilleSC GM Mike Jacobs on why GAM (and not TAM) changed hands in today's trades: "For us, we know about the present and future of GAM, so I think it was easier for us to part with…GAM rather than the fluidity of TAM." #BandTogether — Jeff Carlisle (@JeffreyCarlisle) January 9, 2020

Until a deal is reached, you’re likely to continue to see a slow-burn on many player transactions, save minimum salary players and big ticket DP’s who wouldn’t be affected either way. In any case, it’s unlikely we’ll see a deal until close to the deadline. Even though the parties have been working on this deal for quite some time, these things have a way of simmering until the last minute.

Will we see a deal?

Yes, obviously. Eventually. The real question is: Will we see a deal before the start of the season? My perspective is informed partly by the past on this — particularly the 2015 negotiations. Based on my conversations and contemporaneous reports, the MLSPA succumbed to a hard sell from MLS in the days before the season was to begin. But they were prepared to strike — and, reportedly, had even agreed to — before MLS came to the table with an improved offer at the last minute, and convinced the union that a work stoppage would be nigh-fatal for the league.

The Union has been open about their frustration about the league slow-playing negotiations this time around, and openly suspicious that MLS employing what the Union believes is a “run-out-the-clock” strategy similar to 2015. The MLSPA has put forth a united front and a PR offensive to get galvanize fan support, but as always, while the players may have the cards, the owners have most of the chips.

I’m also bearish on the revenue potential of the league, at least in the short term. The 2026 World Cup might be still two CBA windows away (assuming the one gets done), and I remain skeptical the league will get a substantially improved TV deal (the current one ends after the 2022 season) before then. Given that, MLS will likely continue to pursue a conservative investment path.

I remain pessimistic that we’ll see the season start on time based on what I’ve heard, what I’ve read and the timeline we’re dealing with to get a resolution. The key date will be the start of CCL. If the players are playing, then it’s a good sign a deal is in sight. If not, all bets are off.