First minister appears to put aside quest for second independence referendum to focus on protecting Scottish interests in EU talks

Nicola Sturgeon is to appoint a Brexit minister to influence the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union.

The move is a tacit admission that a quick second referendum on independence might not be politically possible.

Sturgeon said she was keen to shape directly Britain’s talks with the EU to protect Scotland’s interests, including special deals for Holyrood agreed by UK ministers. It was essential that Scotland’s economic interests were protected, she added, after publishing a Scottish government paper which forecasts that Brexit could cost Scotland’s economy as much as £11.2bn by 2030, and cut public revenues by £3.7bn.

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Based on forecasts – including a Treasury paper on the costs of Brexit which Sturgeon had previously attacked as “overblown” – the Scottish government document said even the least bad option of remaining within the single market as part of the European Economic Area would cut Scottish GDP by at least £1.7bn by 2030.

The document assumes that the EU economy will be stable between now and 2030, and forecasts that Brexit will damage the UK economy; but some recent figures suggest that the leave vote has not resulted in the economic harm the remain camp had predicted.

Sturgeon said: “The publication today shows very clearly that if we’re removed from the EU that challenge gets harder and the situation gets worse. So Scotland faces a choice: do we allow that situation to become harder by getting out of the European Union or do we seek ways to protect our EU membership?”

She said there had been welcome and substantive talks between UK and Scottish civil servants about embedding Scottish interests during the Brexit talks – a commitment given by Theresa May this summer; her new Brexit minister would press that agenda on her behalf.

“The key priority has been to ensure that is a meaningful process that involves us directly in shaping the UK position that it reflects and protects our interests, including through outcomes which might differ from the position in the rest of the UK,” Sturgeon said said on Tuesday.



Public support for independence has only slightly risen since June’s Brexit vote, despite Scotland’s significant 62% vote in favour of the EU, while there has been no majority support for a fast second independence referendum, polls show.

In July, after a short-lived jump in yes voters immediately following the Brexit vote, a YouGov poll found that 32% of Scots wanted to wait to see the terms of a Brexit deal before deciding on independence, while 53% would vote to remain in the UK despite leaving the EU.

The first minister is for the first time facing public pressure from influential figures in the Scottish National party to accept that Scotland’s best short-term interests could be better protected by accepting Brexit, by putting the quest for a fast independence referendum to one side.



Alex Neil, an influential former cabinet secretary, said in a recent Holyrood magazine article that Scotland’s powers over fisheries, home affairs, workers’ rights and immigration could be greatly strengthened if the right Brexit deal was struck.

But Sturgeon invited ridicule from opposition leaders by arguing that these economic costs proved that UK was no longer providing “a safe harbour” for Scotland. “The argument that the UK offers financial security to Scotland no longer holds water,” she said.

The first minister is to publish last year’s official figures on the state of Scotland’s public finances on Wednesday, which are expected to confirm a black hole in Scottish spending of about £15bn.

The Government expenditure and revenue Scotland (Gers) report will confirm that the slump in oil revenues has cut tax receipts, leaving Holyrood far more heavily dependent on UK Treasury support, increasing Scotland’s structural deficit.

Sturgeon said her anxieties were heightened by the absence of a post-referendum economic strategy from the UK government. However, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, said her claims that the UK did not cushion the Scottish economy were laughable.

“The first minister is in danger of losing the plot completely,” Davidson said. “Her own government’s figures will show tomorrow that Scotland benefits from a multibillion union dividend. And yet, in order to revive her independence obsession, she is trying to pretend these facts don’t exist.”

Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, said Sturgeon’s analysis of the economic damage caused by Brexit should have been published before the referendum, but the new ministerial post was welcome.

“The publication of Gers figures will make clear the benefit that Scotland gets from the pooling and sharing of resources across the UK,” Dugdale added. “It is completely and utterly misleading to suggest otherwise.”