Jan 23, 2014

President Barack Obama may be facing many challenges at home and abroad. However, another emerging one may further complicate his life. NATO ally Turkey is mired in a crisis of its own making that potentially threatens its alliance ties, tax the US government’s patience and even spill over into the increasingly chaotic rest of the Middle East. Washington should perhaps get ready for an increasingly erratic and unpredictable Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who until May of last year was a valued White House speaker on many subjects, especially on Syria and the aftermath of the Arab Spring. On a trip to Brussels this week — the first in five years — Erdogan also saw how much he has alienated his European audience.

Two weeks after he was feted at a May White House dinner, Erdogan was confronted by massive street demonstrations that were violently suppressed by the police. What was remarkable, however, was not the police’s use of excessive force, but rather the discourse that emanated from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan, his ministers and media. They blamed the demonstrations on foreign plots, interest lobbies, Americans, Jews, the foreign press and a variety of other menacing institutions, including Lufthansa.

Obama’s response was to privately warn Erdogan of the potential damage of such diatribes to the US-Turkish relationship and Turkey’s image abroad and to ignore him since. Even when he was contemplating military action against Syria during the chemical weapons crisis, he avoided talking to Erdogan, whose country not only borders Syria but also serves as a critical node for relief operations and base of support for the rebels.

Six months after the Gezi Park protests, Erdogan is facing a corruption probe that has so far claimed four cabinet members and seriously undermined confidence in him. To quash the probe and prevent it from further damaging his administration and perhaps his own family, he has purged the police corps of many of its cadres, altered rules for judicial investigation and, most importantly, embarked on a far-ranging McCarthyesque campaign that claims that this is all part of a plot hatched by a parallel organization within the state to overthrow his government.

No one has been immune to such a scorched-earth strategy. In an unprecedented move, Erdogan directly targeted the US ambassador while his mouthpieces accused individual embassy officials of plotting against Turkey. Not a shred of evidence has been offered in this orgy of conspiracy theories that has also targeted European allies, Israel, Jews, Jewish capital, Dubai and even the Vatican, according to some. In fact, the pro-Erdogan press has worked overtime to manufacture plots. One of my favorites is how Kohlberg Kravis Roberts gave former CIA director David Petraeus $24 billion to overthrow the AKP government.