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POLITICS BRIEFING

By John Ibbitson (@johnibbitson)

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The American political class is obsessed, as it should be, with how a racist ("Build the wall!"), sexist ("her whatever"), isolationist ("America First"), authoritarian ("If I say do it, they're going to do it"), lying (Arab Americans in New Jersey "were cheering as the World Trade Center came down"), hypocritical ("I'm a strong Christian") , cruel ("He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured"), Islamophobic ("I think Islam hates us"), narcissist (take your pick) like Donald Trump could have possibly become the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.

On this side of the border, Mr. Trump matters too. Even if he loses to Hillary Clinton, which the odds heavily favour, the billionaire TV star's candidacy will change Canada's relationship with the United States. Herewith three reasons why Donald Trump's Republican win is bad for Canada, and one reason why it could be good.

Trump threatens Canadian trade: Ronald Reagan supported the Canada-U.S. and George H.W. Bush the North American free-trade agreements. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were free traders, and Barack Obama launched trade talks with Europe and Pacific nations. But the free-trade consensus has broken down. Ms. Clinton, who is almost certain to win the Democratic presidential nomination, confronts both Democratic challenger Bernie Sanders, who opposes free trade from the left, and Mr. Trump, who on Tuesday called NAFTA "in the history of the world the single worst trade deal ever done." In consequence, Ms. Clinton has become more hawkish on trade, saying she opposes the Trans Pacific Partnership as currently negotiated. Trade represents two-thirds of Canada's GDP, and three-quarters of that trade is with the United States. If the Trump/Sanders opposition to free trade becomes entrenched, Canada will suffer more than most from the rising protectionist tide.

At a press conference Wednesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau noted that "a bit of rhetoric around protectionism" is common in any election campaign, but that the rhetoric "tends to dissipate" afterward.

We can only hope.

Trump undermines global security: The pax americana has kept the globe at peace (even the Korean and Vietnam wars were brushfires, by historic standards) for seven decades since the end of the Second World War. But Mr. Trump's ugly threats to weaken or scrap NATO as president, to abandon America's alliances with Japan and South Korea ("let them protect themselves") and to launch a trade war against China strengthens the hand of Russia and other geopolitical rivals. Mr. Trump's threats may never become policy, but they serve as a warning that a strong isolationist current pulses through contemporary America. And that makes everyone less safe.

Trump will make Canadians insufferable. We are always at our worst when we indulge the strain of anti-Americanism that is as old as the country itself. Now the Republicans have picked the most contentious presidential nominee since the Southern Democrats nominated John C. Breckinridge in 1860 on a platform of extending slavery into the territories. Canada, in contrast, has a rock-star prime minister in Mr. Trudeau, who has adopted a far more compassionate approach to the Syrian refugee plight than the United States, who is deeply committed to fighting global warming (Mr. Trump calls it a "hoax"), and who embraces the Conservative legacy on free trade. It's bound to make us so intolerably smug that no one will want to have us over for dinner.

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And the reason Trump could be good for Canada?

Trump Dodgers would boost our economy. English Canada was partly founded by American loyalists fleeing the revolution. Tens of thousands of Americans moved to Canada to avoid being drafted during the Vietnam War, enriching Canadian society (and helping tilt us politically to the left). A Trump victory could convince many thousands of well-educated, highly-skilled and socially tolerant Americans to come north. Canada would be better for having them.

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW FROM OTTAWA

By Chris Hannay (@channay)

> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Alex Trebek this morning for a photo opportunity on the Hill.

> Saudi Arabia says its upcoming festivities on the Hill are to "celebrate the friendship" between the country and Canada, and have nothing to do with the controversy around the $15-billion arms deal.

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> The third-largest federal public service union, representing policy analysts and translators, is facing infighting and a petition to oust its president. In other public-service news, the government says it has fixed its payroll system that was causing thousands of workers to go weeks without receiving paycheques. And Elizabeth May says all public-sector executives should be shuffled from their jobs because they are "contaminated" by their years working for the Conservative government.

> The Liberals cut debate short on its assisted-dying legislation, but the bill still passed a second-reading vote with the support of Liberal MPs, 20 Conservatives and most New Democrats.

> And GQ says Mr. Trudeau has gone "full bro."

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

> Ontario: Former NDP MP Rathika Sitsabaiesan explains why she's running for the Ontario Liberals.

> Manitoba: Premier Brian Pallister has named his new cabinet, including a Minister of Francophone Affairs who doesn't speak French.

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> Alberta: The aftermath of the Fort McMurray fire has left tens of thousands of people homeless and oil-sands projects have been forced to cut production.

> British Columbia: The Western premiers' conference in Vancouver will see new dynamics between the leaders. And the conflict of interest commissioner says Christy Clark has not broken any rules with her exclusive fundraisers.

WHAT EVERYONE'S TALKING ABOUT

Jeffrey Simpson (Globe and Mail): "The Trudeau government tends to see the world through the prism of its own 'sunny ways.' Alas, many parts of the world are not terribly sunny these days. Freedom and democracy, values that we associate with peace and security, are in retreat." (for subscribers)

Yves Boisvert (Globe and Mail): "The [Parti Québécois] needs a new leader, its third in three years, and quickly. The classic divide between 'hard-liners' and 'realists' will resurface. The same old endless debate will tear apart PQ members: Should they go all-out for independence and a referendum? Or sell 'good government' while waiting for the 'winning conditions'?"

Chantal Hébert (Toronto Star): "For if one had to name one distinguishing feature that has come to light over the past six months, it would not be the marketing flair of the Trudeau team or the so-called sunnier ways of the new prime minister."

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Tasha Kheiriddin (National Post): "Defenders of Canada's relationship with Saudi Arabia will say that we can't base trade on human rights; that lots of countries commit horrible violations and we still do business with them; that, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeated ad nauseam, thousands of Canadian jobs depend on this LAV contract; that if we pull out, Saudi Arabia will just buy its vehicles elsewhere; and finally, that we need the Saudis to help fight the spread of Muslim extremism in the Middle East. Many of those same arguments could have been made just as well in the 1980s about South Africa."

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