Ballina (Key Seat)

Far North Coast

Very Safe National 24.6%

MP

The retiring National Party member is Don Page who has represented this seat since 1988.

Profile

Ballina is a far north coast electorate that takes in the Ballina and Byron Shire Councils. Major centres include Ballina, Alstonville, Lennox Head, Byron Bay, Brunswick Heads, Ocean Shores and Mullumbimby. Like many north coast electorates, the relative importance of rural industries is declining, with the district's economic growth now based on tourism and service industries to support rapid urban growth. The electorate also has a substantial alternative lifestyle community inland from Byron Bay. (Map)

Redistribution

Minor changes, gaining around 1,600 voters in the balance of Byron Shire from Lismore. The National margin versus Labor declines from 25.2% to an estimated 24.6%. The Greens finished ahead of Labor at the 2011 election, and the National two-candidate preferred margin falls from 17.8% to an estimated 17.0%.

Background

After a brief existence between 1894 and 1904, the electorate of Ballina was re-created when the Parliament was expanded in 1988. Population growth has seen the seat retained despite two subsequent reductions in the size of the Legislative Assembly. The electorate includes Cape Byron, the most easterly point on the Australian mainland.



Ballina would be Labor held based on local results at the last two Federal elections, mainly because of strong support for the Greens. At the 2003 and 2007 elections Labor had only a narrow lead over the Greens, and the Labor collapse in 2011 saw the Greens almost double Labor's vote. The two parties will again compete for second place at the 2015 election.



The retirement of Don Page could hurt the National's cause, as his personal vote has clearly been a reason for the Nationals polling better locally when you compare state to Federal election results. Optional preferential voting also helps the National cause, but there will be concern for the Nationals if the reduced rate of exhausted preferences seen at the recent Queensland state election is repeated in NSW.

Past Election Results

Year Winning Party 1988 NAT 1991 NAT 1995 NAT 1999 NAT 2003 NAT 2007 NAT 2011 NAT

Coloured tab indicates seat won by a party forming government

Notes on Margin

The margin used for Ballina has been calculated from the alternative 2-party preferred count between National and Labor conducted after the election for information purposes. The National margin versus the second finishing Green candidate was a narrower 16.9%.

Opinion Polls

On 22 March the Sun-Herald published a poll of 690 respondents conducted on 19 March. The poll reported first preferences of National 39.2%, Labor 29.7% and Greens 19.8%, with Labor ahead after preferences 52.2% to National 47.8%.

2011 Census Highlights

Ballina has the highest proportion of residents in part-time work at 22.0% and the third highest female participation rate (49.2%). It has the fourth highest rate of respondents identifying with no religion (28.3%).

2015 Ballot Paper (7 Candidates) Party INDEPENDENT INDEPENDENT THE NATIONALS NO LAND TAX THE GREENS CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (FRED NILE GROUP) COUNTRY LABOR

Matthew Hartley INDEPENDENT Hartley grew up outdoors, running and riding in the bush, playing in the waves, and learning in libraries, and studied at the University of Sydney. He spent a year in hospital, a few years traveling, 9 years on a disability pension, 10 years in public housing, 20 years playing music (enthusiastically, if not very well), and 27 years in medical, psychological, and therapeutic research. Currently, he helps develop low-cost therapeutic technology. Website

Jeff Johnson INDEPENDENT Johnson was first elected to Ballina Shire Council in 2008 for the Greens and re-elected in 2012, though Johnson is now an Independent. In 2006, he completed a Bachelor of Business Administration at Southern Cross University. More recently he went on to complete post-graduate units with the Faculty of Law. Johnson has a long history working in management and small business. Website

Kris Beavis THE NATIONALS Kris Beavis was born and raised on the north coast of NSW. After growing up on a banana farm at Coffs Harbour, Beavis moved to Ballina, where he was employed by a number of banks, and eventually became business manager of a local school. He is currently the CEO of the local Westpac Rescue Helicopter. Website

Tamara Smith THE GREENS Smith says her family has lived in the Northern Rivers region for four generations. A solicitor with a background in energy law, social justice and human rights, she is also a secondary school teacher with professional experience working in the NSW Industrial Relations Commission and briefing members of parliament. Smith was nominated as the 2007 Ballina Quota community woman of the year for her community service. She has been active in a number of National environmental campaigns, including Roxby Downs, Chaelundi Forests, Fraser Island, and Cape Byron Marine Sanctuary. Website

Paul Spooner COUNTRY LABOR Spooner was elected to the Byron Shire Council in 2012. He has also served as the Chairperson of Arts Northern Rivers, Santos Organics and the Arakwal Aboriginal Committee, and as an Ambassador for White Ribbon Australia. Spooner has also worked as the General Manager of the Byron Community Centre. He is a graduate of economics and sociology who has managed community, cultural, legal and youth organisations. Spooner was pre-selected using on of the Labor Party's new community pre-selection ballots. Website

2011 Result Party Votes % Swing FFP 835 2.0 +2.0 NAT 24,054 57.0 +2.6 IND 2,296 5.4 +5.4 ALP 5,033 11.9 -11.2 GRN 9,159 21.7 +2.3 CDP 847 2.0 +2.0 OTH 0 0.0 -3.1 NAT 25,816 67.8 +3.3 ALP 0 0.0 -35.5 GRN 12,268 32.2 +32.2