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The Canadian dollar is at more than an 11-year low versus its U.S. counterpart, but the economic outlook and expected path of policymakers on both sides of the border, as well as seasonal influences mean it’s not time to be a buyer of the loonie just yet.

Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank, noted that recent Canadian data, compared with the same figures released in late 2014, show the economy is in significantly worse shape now.

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He highlighted the October trade balance, which had a $100-million surplus last year, but a $2.7-billion deficit in 2015.

Industry-level GDP was growing slightly above two per cent year over year in 2015, versus a -0.2-per-cent reading in the most recent data.

Unemployment was 6.6 per cent in November 2014, but 7.1 per cent this year, while headline inflation was two per cent a year ago and 1.4 per cent last month.

“Fundamental prospects for Canada remain challenging,” Osborne said in a research note. “Growth momentum is disappointing and Q4 GDP is liable to come in significantly below Bank of Canada expectations.”