Eliza Collins

USA TODAY

Hillary Clinton has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in a new North Carolina poll, though she is within the margin of error, following the release of a video from 2005 where the Republican nominee discusses groping women.

Clinton led Trump 45%-43% in a Suffolk University poll in the Tar Heel State released Thursday. Libertarian Gary Johnson had 5% support. While Clinton and Trump are still neck-and-neck, her new edge is a reversal from last month when Trump was at 44% and Clinton was at 41%.

While Clinton gained a small lead over the past month, just 14% of voters said the Access Hollywood video changed their opinion of Trump. Sixty-nine percent said their opinion was not swayed, and 14% hadn’t seen the video.

While Trump still has strong support in the state, there’s been a big shift in how people answered who they thought would win the election, despite whom they were backing.

Two-thirds of those surveyed said they expected Clinton to win the election, while 22% thought Trump would win. The share of voters who think Clinton will win has increased 17 points from September when she was at 49% and Trump was at 33%.

Republican Sen. Richard Burr held a 4-point lead over Democratic challenger Deborah Ross, 40%-36%. The margin has remained the same since last month.

The poll of 500 likely North Carolina voters was conducted Oct. 10-12. The margin of error was 4.4 points. Forty percent of respondents identified as Democrats, 30% identified as Republicans and 25% said they were independent. Four percent identified as "other" and 2% refused to answer.

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