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1. Casey Mize, RHP

FB SL SF Control Overall 60 55 70/80 55/60 70+

Background: Following a prolific career at Springville High School, Mize, who went 19-2 including a perfect 3-0 record with a 1.83 ERA during his senior season, quickly established himself as one of college baseball’s most promising talents a year later. Splitting time between the Auburn’s bullpen and rotation, the 6-foot-3, 200-pound right-hander tossed the second most innings for Manager Butch Thompson (69.0), amassing a promising 59-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He would also make a couple brief appearances for the Wareham Gatemen in the Cape Cod League that summer as well, fanning 11 against five free passes in 12.0 innings of work. Mize would follow it up with an even more dominant showing in 2017: in 13 appearances, 12 of them coming via the start, he pounded the strike zone like very few power pitchers, striking out an impressive 109 with just nine walks in 83.2 innings. Mize – of course – earned a spot on Team USA’s roster, tossing another seven innings (where he fanned eight and didn’t walk a hitter). Last season, he continued to sparkle for the Tigers of Auburn. In a career-high 17 starts, the broad-shouldered righty tossed 114.2 innings, recording a mind-boggling 156 strikeouts against just 16 – 16! – walks. He tallied a 10-6 win-loss record to go along with a 3.30 ERA. Detroit made Mize the top pick in last year’s draft, signing him to a deal worth $7.5 million.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote about the talented right-hander heading into last year’s draft:

“Stud. One of my favorite collegiate arms in this year’s draft class. Mize ticks off all the important boxes: big and projectable, handled conservatively during his amateur career, pounds the strike zone, power pitcher’s arsenal, and high levels of success [against] elite competition. First let’s take a look at his production during his sophomore campaign. Consider the following:

Among all Division I pitchers with at least 50 innings in a season between 2011 and 2017, here’s the list of arms to fan at least 11 hitters per nine innings with a sub-1.00 BB/9: Casey Mize.

Well, that’s pretty exclusive. Let’s expand it a bit.

Here’s the list of pitchers to fan at least 11 K/9 with a walk rate of 1.5 BB/9 or fewer (min. 50 IP): Mize, Kyle Freeland, David Peterson, Taylor Clarke, and J.T. Odom.

Freeland, of course, was the eighth overall pick in the 2014 [draft] out of the University of Evansville. Peterson was the 20th player picked last June. Clarke was a third round choice by the Diamondbacks in 2015. And Odom, who starred at Mercer, went completely undrafted. With respect to Mize, [there are] two important factors to remember: (1.) he’s actually improved during his junior season and (2.) he’s played significantly tougher competition. My lone concern for Mize moving forward has been a tendency to be a bit too homer-prone: he’s surrendered 19 long balls in his 227.2 career innings, or an average of .75 HR/9. He looks like a pitcher that – potentially – could front a rotation, but watch the dingers.”

Mize owns a filthy repertoire built around three pitches – all of them above-average to plus. The big right-hander’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, touching as high as 97, but it settles toward 93-94 in the latter parts of the game. His splitter’s already one of the best in the minor leagues, showing late, hard tumble. It was his go-to swing-and-miss pitch often in college. He’ll also use a 55-grade slider, though not as often as he should.

Ceiling: 5.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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2. Matt Manning, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 65 60/70 50 50/55 65+

Background: The son of former NBA power forward/center Rich Manning, a second round pick by the Atlanta Hawks in 1993, Matt got most of his dad’s skyscraper height, though the talent came in the form of a different sport. The younger Manning, who stands a rock solid 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds, was the ninth overall pick three years ago. After making 14 starts between Connecticut and West Michigan in 2017, Manning made stops at three different levels last season, going from West Michigan to Lakeland and finally up to Erie for a pair of starts to wrap up a highly successful campaign for the young righty. Manning finished the year with a career best 22 starts, throwing 117.2 innings with a whopping 154 strikeouts and 51 walks. He compiled an aggregate 3.29 ERA and an even better 3.02 FIP.

Analysis: Reliant on two pitches most of the time. Manning establishes himself early in at bats with well-placed fastball, which typically sits in the 94- to 96-mph range. His heater generates a ton of late swings-and-misses, more so than the average plus-fastball. His curveball, the other go-to offering, adds a second plus-weapon to his arsenal, showing impressing two-plane depth. Manning will also occasionally mix in a straight changeup as well. The big right-hander has the look, build, and repertoire of a future #2-type arm, though he’ll need to further refine his changeup to ascend to that status. With respect to his work in High Class A last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old arms to fan at least 30% of the hitters they faced in the Florida State League (min. 50 IP): Yovani Gallardo, Jake McGee, Jeremy Jeffress, Shelby Miller, Tyler Glasnow, Alex Reyes, Sean Reid-Foley, Will Inman, and – of course – Matt Manning. Sans Manning and Reid-Foley, both of whom are current top prospects, the remaining members of the group have had some solid success at the big league level.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 55/60 50/55 30 50 60+

Background: Acquiredalong with third baseman Jeimer Candelario in a deal that sent veterans Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to the Cubs at the trade deadline two years ago. Paredes, a stocky infielder from Hermosillo, Mexico, turned in his finest – by a wide margin – season to date in 2018. Splitting time between the Lakeland Flying Tigers and Erie SeaWolves, the 5-foot-11, 225-pound middle infielder slugged a robust .278/.359/.456 with 28 doubles, two triples, and a career best 15 dingers. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 31%. For his career, Paredes is sporting a .270/.349/.421 triple-slash line, belting out 70 doubles, five triples, and 27 homeruns through his first 297 games.

Analysis: Paredes spent significant time at shortstop, his natural position, as well as second and third bases. The glove and bat will play at any of those three positions, though they do profile better up the middle. There’s some – growing – concern that Paredes, who’s listed at just 5-foot-11 but tips the scales at a hefty 225 pounds, may never reach his potential as a table setter because of conditioning issues. Despite that, though, Paredes elevated his entire approach at the plate last season, showing more patience and significantly more pop than in past years. He’s got a chance to be an above-average starter, but the weight is concerning. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only three 19-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 118 and 128 in the Florida State League (min. 300 PA): Matt Dominguez, Jon Singleton, and Willy Adames – all of whom were once considered Top 100 prospects, by the way.

Adames, another young infielder, seems like a reasonable comp for Paredes moving forward, though the Tigers’ young infielder doesn’t quite own the elite eye that Adames consistently did.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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4. Daz Cameron, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 45/55 55 55 60+

Background: One of my favorite outfield prospects in the minors. Cameron, whose dad has one helluva argument for the Hall of Fame, fits the mold as a do-everything-well type of youngster. Acquired as part of the return in Justin Verlander swap with Houston a couple years back, Cameron got off to a bit of slow start before kicking into high gear last season. The toolsy center fielder batted a mediocre .259/.346/.370 in a first half assignment with Lakeland, but his production improved to a steady .285/.367/.470 in a second half promotion up to the Eastern League. The former supplemental first rounder also spent a couple weeks in the International League down the stretch as well. Cameron finished his fourth professional season with an aggregate .264/.343/.406 triple-slash line, belting out 25 doubles, nine triples, and eight homerun to go along with 24 stolen bases.

Analysis: Loud – and underrated – tools like his old man. Cameron – along with fellow top prospect Isaac Paredes – showed some serious developmental progress in terms of patience at the plate last season. The young outfielder walked in a career best 9.7% of his plate appearances in 2018. Cameron uses the whole field effectively, shooting balls from gap-to-gap with plenty of authority. There’s still a bit more untapped power potential as well. Solid-average hit tool, above-average power and speed with the defensive chops to remain in center field. I very much think that Cameron winds up as a slightly lesser version of his old man.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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5. Franklin Perez, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 60 55 60 55 65

Background: Part of the bounty the club received from the Astros in the Justin Verlander swap a couple years ago. Perez, who was acquired with center fielder Daz Cameron and backstop Jake Rogers, essentially lost an entire season of development due to a severe lat strain. The talented fireballer was limited to just seven brief starts between the Gulf Coast and Florida State Leagues. He posted a 14-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 19.1 innings of work. For his career, the 6-foot-3, 197-pound right-hander owns an impressive 228-to-68 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a nice looking 3.60 ERA in 222.1 innings of work.

Analysis: I happened to catch one of the few starts Perez made in High Class A last season. And, simply put, the stuff never went away. Perez challenged hitters with an explosive plus fastball that sat anywhere from 92- to 95-mph. His curveball showed that trademark hellacious bend, making it the second of three plus-offerings wielded by Perez. His changeup, a mid-80s offering, showed impressive fade. And his slider flashed above-average at times. Understandably so, Perez didn’t throw as many strikes as he’s been accustomed to. And despite the lost year, he’s only entering his age-21 season with some success at the most important minor league test (Class AA). He’s just another one of these Detroit arms that looks like a potential #2/#3-type starting pitcher in the coming years.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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6. Alex Faedo, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 60 60 50 55 60

Background: At this point I’ve burned through enough ink –real and virtual – spewing about the epically historical pitching staff the 2016 Florida Gators collected. But it deserves to be repeated – again. Every single member of the pitching staff eventually got drafted, including: five first round picks (Faedo, A.J. Puk, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, and Dane Dunning), one second rounder (Logan Shore), a third round choice (Shaun Anderson), and a fourth round selection (Scott Moss). It could – very well – go down as the single greatest collection of pitching talent in the history of college baseball. Faedo, a gangly 6-foot-5, 230-pound right-hander, was the 18th overall pick in the 2017 draft. The former Gator wouldn’t make his debut, though, until last season. The Tampa, Florida native split the year between Lakeland and Erie, throwing 121.0 total innings with 110 punch outs against just 35 walks. He complied an aggregate 4.02 ERA and a mediocre 4.54 FIP.

Analysis: The perfect recipe for a mid-rotation caliber starting pitcher. Faedo challenges hitters with two plus-offerings – a lively mid-90s heater and a tightly-wound slider with late tilt – and a competent third pitch (a straight changeup).Less than two years after getting drafted the righty’s already knocking – loudly – on Detroit’s big league door. With respect to his production in Class AA last season, consider the following:

Since 2006 only four 22-year-old pitchers met the following criteria in the Eastern League (min. 50 IP): 22% to 24% strikeout percentage and a walk percentage between 8% and 10%. Those four arms: Garrett Olson, Jordan Zimmerman, Mitch Keller, and Alex Faedo.

Faedo’s production in Class AA was skewed a bit thanks to some wonky homerun numbers: he surrendered 15 dingers in just 60.0 innings in Class AA, including nine in an awful four-game stretch. He’s always coughed up more homeruns than expect, even going back to his college days, but even that was way out of whack. He’s positioned himself for a second-half call-up to Motown.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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7. Parker Meadows, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/55 50/55 45 50/55 60+

Background: How’s this for bloodlines? Parker’s older brother is Tampa Bay Rays’ outfielder-of-the-future – and potential club cornerstone – Austin Meadows. Taken with the first pick in the second round and handed a well above-slot bonus worth $2.5 million, Meadows the Younger spent time in the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues during his debut, slugging a solid .290/.377/.473 with three doubles, one triple, and four homeruns. He also swiped three bags in four attempts. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by a whopping 41%.

Analysis: First off: the bonus Detroit handed Meadows was roughly the equivalent of late first round money, somewhere between picks 26 and 27. The lefty-swinging center fielder shows a smooth stroke with a lightning quick bat and a natural loft that should generate above-average power as he matures. Meadows struggled with some swing-and-miss issues during his debut, but his patient approach should push his K-rate down towards the league average mark. The initial results from his work in center field looks like he’ll be a competent, perhaps even an above-average defender. Tremendous, tremendous grab early in the second round last June.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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8. Carlos Guzman, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 60/65 55/60 55/60 50/55 60

Background: It took the Tigers just two years to realize that Guzman’s bat wasn’t going to go anywhere other than just back into the rack at the end of the bench. So the organization quickly shifted gears and converted the shortstop/third baseman into a full-time pitcher two years ago. And the move’s already beginning to pay dividends. Last year the wiry 6-foot-1, 170-pound right-hander made 13 appearances, 12 starts in the New York-Penn League and one relief appearances in High Class A, throwing a career-high 52.1 innings with 54 strikeouts and just 14 walks. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.78 ERA. For his career, Guzman’s averaging 9.1 strikeouts and just 2.3 walks per nine innings with a 2.77 ERA.

Analysis: Beyond the club’s most recognizable arms, Guzman – likely – has the highest upside, especially considering his lack of experience on the bump. The hard-throwing right-hander will challenge hitters with an explosive mid-90s fastball that already grades out as plus. And both of his offspeed pitches – an upper-70s/low-80s slider and a fantastic fading changeup – flash plus as well. The soon-to-be-21-year-old hurler also throws a surprising amount of strikes too. There’s a reasonably high ceiling as a mid-rotation caliber arm with the floor as a three-pitch, late-inning reliever. Guzman could be one of the bigger breakouts in 2019. Remember this kid’s name.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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9. Beau Burrows, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 50 50 50 50 55

Background: Detroit snagged the burly right-hander in the opening round, 22nd overall, in the 2015 draft. Burrows, the stereotypical Texas-born power pitcher, teamed with fellow top prospects Alex Faedo, Matt Manning, and Kyle Funkhouser to provide a lethal pitching staff for the Erie SeaWolves last season. In a career-high tying 26 starts, Burrows tossed 134.0 innings with 127 strikeouts and just 56 walks. Burrows finished his fourth professional season with a 4.10 ERA and a horrific looking 6.93 DRA (Deserved Run Average). For his career Burrows is averaging 8.3 strikeouts and just 3.2 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.38 ERA in 394.0 total innings.

Analysis: Not quite on the same plane as a lot the club’s top arms. Burrows, nonetheless, has the potential to develop into a capable backend starting pitcher. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander offers up a solid four-pitch mix: a heavy, plus-fastball, an average curveball that lacks late movement, a solid slider, and a competent changeup. Burrows lacks a strong secondary option that would allow him to ascend toward the middle of a big league rotation. Consider the following:

Since 2006 only three 21-year-old arms posted a strikeout percentage between 21% and 23% with a walk percentage between 9% and 11% in the Eastern League (min. 100 IP): Carlos Carrasco, JoJo Romero, and – of course – Beau Burrows.

There’s a lot of value to be had in a durable innings-eater. And that’s exactly what Burrows will be.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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10. Jake Rogers, C

Hit Power SB Field Control 35/40 55 30 70 50

Background: Furtherevidence that Class AA is the most challenging level in a prospect’s development: Rogers, who was coming off of a strong showing in High Class A, completely fell flat on his face as he moved up to the Eastern League last season. The former Tulane slugger batted a disappointing .219/.305/.412 with 15 doubles, one triple, and 17 homeruns in 99 games with the Erie SeaWolves. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, was essentially the league average mark. Rogers, who was taken in the third round of the 2016 draft, owns a saber-friendly .240/.332/.431 career line, belting out 50 doubles, seven triples, and 38 homeruns in 257 total games. Detroit acquired the backstop as the third piece in the Justin Verlander swap a couple years ago.

Analysis: Regardless of how poor the hit tool is – and it most definitely is – Rogers will likely carve out a lengthy big league career as a starting caliber catcher thanks to his terrific defense. Since the beginning of 2017 the 6-foot-1, 190-pound brick wall has, according to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, saved 40 runs better than the average. In other words: that’s Matt Chapman territory as a backstop. It’s unheard of, essentially. As a hitter Rogers is staring down the path of a Three True Outcomes performer. Above-average eye, which blossomed in 2017 and carried over into 2018, with matching in-game power. One more thought: Martin Maldonado was – arguably – the top defensive catcher in the big leagues last season; he tallied nearly a win above replacement despite hitting .225/.276/.351 with zero on-base skills and little power.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.