Click here for the PDF version of the following article.

NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

March 1st, 2017

Two points. That’s all that was missing to make it a perfect night. Went 3-1 (including a win on the 4-star Wizards bet), with the only loss the Lakers +4 who ended up losing by 5. Oh well, those things happen and it’s part of the game. I also advised to grab the Grizzlies if the line moved a little more in their favor (don’t know if it eventually happened or not) and they also beat the spread.

Remember the following quote: “The more successful the individual, the less inclined he is to make excuses.” The Magic of Thinking Big, David J. Schwartz. We should all strive to stop making excuses for our failures.

Without further ado, here are today’s projections as we have 4 value bets. They are rated 5 stars, 3 stars, 2 star and 1 star.

MARCH 1, 2017 SPREAD MONEY LINE Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Knicks +1.5 +2.2 +110 +127 2,10 2,27 -7,5% Magic -1.5 -2.2 -121 -127 1,83 1,79 2,2% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Wizards +4.5 +5.6 +162 +218 2,62 3,18 -17,6% Raptors -4.5 -5.6 -180 -218 1,56 1,46 X 6,6% Tip: Bet the Raptors. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Mavericks +6 +6.6 +214 +265 3,14 3,65 -14,0% Hawks -6 -6.6 -240 -265 1,42 1,38 2,9% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI 76ers +9 +8.7 +373 +394 4,73 4,94 -4,3% Heat -9 -8.7 -435 -394 1,23 1,25 -1,9% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Nuggets +2.5 +3.7 +129 +160 2,29 2,60 -11,9% Bucks -2.5 -3.7 -143 -160 1,70 1,63 X 4,6% Tip: You could consider betting the Bucks. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Pistons +1.5 +1.3 +106 +111 2,06 2,11 -2,4% Pelicans -1.5 -1.3 -117 -111 1,85 1,90 -2,4% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Cavaliers -1 -1.1 -113 -109 1,88 1,92 -1,7% Celtics +1 +1.1 +102 +109 2,02 2,09 -3,3% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Pacers +10 +10.4 +450 +566 5,50 6,66 -17,4% Spurs -10 -10.4 -535 -566 1,19 1,18 0,9% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Twolves +7 +4.9 +248 +197 3,48 2,97 X 17,2% Jazz -7 -4.9 -280 -197 1,36 1,51 -10,0% Tip: Bet the Timberwolves. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Rockets +2 -1.4 +113 -112 2,13 1,89 X 12,5% Clippers -2 +1.4 -125 +112 1,80 2,12 -15,1% Tip: Bet the Rockets. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Nets +1.5 +6.8 +116 +274 2,16 3,74 -42,2% Kings -1.5 -6.8 -128 -274 1,78 1,36 X 30,5% Tip: Bet the Kings.

“AMAZING BET” (5 stars / 5):

I’m taking the Kings -1.5 at home against the Nets. Am I missing something? This seems almost too good to be true. When two evenly matched teams play each other in the NBA, the home team is favored by 3.5 or 4 points. So Vegas is basically telling us that the Nets have the better team here? Sure, the Kings traded their star player DeMarcus Cousins and lost their 2nd-highest scorer Rudy Gay to a season-ending injury. So far they have won roughly 42% of their games. What percentage of games do you believe they’d win over the course of a full-season with their current lineup? Would it really be LOWER than the .155 record by the Nets, especially considering they got rid of their second-highest scorer Bogdanovich? I really don’t get it. Maybe Brooklyn wins by 10 points tonight, and then I’ll have my answer, but for now I’m baffled.

A few more arguments in favor of the Kings value bet: Sacramento received some players in return of the Cousins trade. They aren’t all-stars, but it’s not like the team lost Cousins and that was it. The Nets are on a 16-game losing streak, and have lost 27 of their past 28. The only thing I don’t like right now is seeing about 80% of the money being wagered on the Kings. Apparently, I’m not the only one in this boat, but I usually prefer to be on the opposite side.

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

I’m picking the Timberwolves +7 in Utah. Wiggins and Towns have literally been on fire of late. They will face a tough defense tonight, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

The Jazz have won in Minnesota twice this year (by 9 and 2 points). In fact, Utah beat the Timberwolves in the past 5 meetings.

The main reason I end up picking Minnesota is the fatigue factor, which I believe is underestimated in the current line. The Timberwolves have played 1 game over the last 3 days, so they are fine. On the other hand, not only is Utah playing the second of back-to-back games, but tonight’s matchup will mark their 3rd in 4 nights (4th in 6 nights). That will take its toll on the Jazz.

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

I like the Rockets +2 against the Clippers. They have beaten up LA earlier this season by a 140-116 score in Houston. The Rockets have won 5 of the previous 7 meetings. The acquisition of Lou Williams has boosted an attack that was already explosive. After blowing a 17-point lead at home against the Pacers two days ago, Houston will be very focused and motivated tonight.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

Finally, I’m going with Toronto -4.5 against Washington. I see two things going against the Wizards: 1) they are playing the second of back-to-back games; 2) they are coming off an emotional win against the top team in the NBA. Toronto has won the last 8 meetings between the two teams, including a 10-point win in Washington earlier this year. The loss of Lowry hasn’t affected the Raptors so far, and we’ll see if the trend continues.

As usual I thank you very much for reading this and I wish you the best of luck!

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

Come join our Facebook group! https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ/