One of the appeals of a Lions tour is that not even those in charge can see the bends that lie ahead. A sub-plot in the 1997 tour to South Africa was the confrontation at scrum-half between Robert Howley and Joost van der Westhuizen.

Sunday newspapers which had made it the focus of their first Test previews had just hours to rewrite a few thousand words when Howley suffered an injury on the Saturday against Natal that forced him to pull out of the tour.

The Welshman's misfortune gave an opportunity to Matt Dawson, and he played a key role in the first Test victory in Cape Town, scoring the winning try 10 minutes from time when the Springboks had been leading 16-15. He picked up from a scrum around 20 metres out from the South Africa line and scurried away.

As the South Africa No8 Gary Teichmann was about to pounce, Dawson dummied an overhead pass, checking the defenders and giving him a clear run to the line. When asked afterwards whether he would have bought the dummy off Howley, Teichmann paused, smiled and said probably not.

Dawson had provided a touch of the unexpected and the Lions were on their way to a series win – their last – which was clinched the following week with a Jeremy Guscott drop goal from the scrum-half's pass. Dawson was to go on two more Lions tours, which provided far different experiences.

"I am bullish about the Lions' prospects in Australia," said Dawson, who has been taking part this month in the Shell FuelSave Driving Challenge, which culminated in the Shell Eco-marathon in Rotterdam. "They have an exciting set of players and while they have limited preparation time, I have never totally believed in having to spend lots of time on the training field; and it has been a long season."

There was a considerable amount of time on the training field in Australia in 2001 under a New Zealander who was then coaching Wales, Graham Henry, someone Dawson did not have a close relationship with.

Another Kiwi who is employed by the Welsh Rugby Union, Warren Gatland, is in charge this year and a feature of his time with Wasps, which coincided with the start of the Premiership play-offs, was how he managed his players towards the end of a season when bodies, and minds, became tired. Dawson was one of them.

"There is a perception in Australia that the Lions will be one-dimensional, but knowing Gats as a coach, he will not be planning to play it one way," said Dawson. "The Lions will be powerful up front and they will take the Wallabies on there, but to win the series, they will have to be creative and score tries. That will mean making the correct decisions under pressure.

"It will be interesting to see who they pick at inside centre. It may be Manu Tuilagi, a player who can cause mayhem but who has to be in the mood, but I would look at Brian O'Driscoll: he would provide that extra bit of variation and his distribution skills are what will be needed to bring a dangerous back three into play and take the Lions into the outside channels.

"Tuilagi could run lines off O'Driscoll and that partnership is one of the features I am looking forward to. That is not to forget Jamie Roberts, who did well in South Africa four years ago, but 1997 showed that a tour does not always evolve in the way that is expected at the start.

"In 2001, we started well, winning the first Test and getting well on top in the first-half of the second, but by the final, deciding match injuries meant that everyone had to dig in. There was a momentum shift at the end of the opening period in the second Test: Richard Hill was injured after being tackled by Nathan Grey and just after the restart, a long Jonny Wilkinson pass was intercepted and Australia were away."

It will be the Lions third full tour of Australia (1904 is regarded as unofficial), a series that defies convention because in 1989 and 2001, the team that won the first Test lost the series. The only other tour where that happened was in 1930 in New Zealand when the Lions started off with a victory but lost the next three internationals. In South Africa in 1955, they tied the series after opening with a win.

It is the fifth tour in the professional era and only the second time that the opponents are not the World Cup holders: 2005 was the other occasion – two years after England, and Dawson, had claimed the trophy in Australia. The Wallabies finished third in 2011, but they are being seen as vulnerable, with the head coach Robbie Deans heading towards the end of his contract with a consequent jockeying for his position and a squad that lacks the depth of the Lions' in certain positions.

"To me, a bigger factor than the preparation time the Lions have is Australia's lack of a warm-up match," said Dawson. "By the time of the first Test, it will be their first international for more than six months and some of their players will have gone three or four weeks without a game. That will be the time for the Lions to strike.

"Never mind what happened in 1989 and 2001, winning the first Test gives you an advantage. The Lions will not face the strongest opposition in the build-up because the Wallabies will be in camp, but [that] was the case on the last few tours and I do not expect it to be a factor. Four years ago, the players gelled very quickly and that series could have gone either way.

"It is a long time since the Lions won a series, and being part of a winning team in 1997 was one of the highlights of my career, but what is important is that they live on. When the game turned professional, everyone seemed to be predicting the end of the Lions and the Barbarians, but there they are meeting in Hong Kong next week.

"The Lions are one of the biggest brands in the game, a great commercial animal that provides a bridge between the professional present and the amateur past and gives them a unique ethos. We are in for some special moments in the next few weeks: I was tilting towards a 3-0 Lions win, but Australia do have Will Genia. A lot of pressure will be on one man so I will go for 2-1."

• This is an extract from the Breakdown, our free weekly take on the world of rugby. To ensure a copy arrives in your inbox every Thursday, sign up here.