by Vince Verhei

When New Orleans coach Sean Payton was suspended for the 2012 season, nobody knew how that would affect the Saints offense. Two games - and two defeats - into this campaign, the changes are evident, and not promising. For the defense, though, it's been business as usual - which is bad news. In both a 40-32 defeat to the Washington Redskins in Week 1 and a 35-27 loss at the hands of the Carolina Panthers in Week 2, the Saints fell behind thanks to a sputtering offense and a defense that gave up too many big plays. Both times they staged a furious second-half rally, because they still have too much talent to be shut down for an entire game, but both times they came up short. Can New Orleans turn things around? And is there time left to save their season?

The first change to the Saints' offense is a matter of philosophy. The Saints have been a pass-oriented team since Drew Brees came to town. They ran the ball only 38 percent of the time in 2011, which ranked 28th in the NFL. This year, though, they've gone even more extreme, running just 26 percent of the time. And that's not just because they've been playing catch-up late in games - they've run just 33 percent of the time in the first half.

Worse still, when the Saints do run the ball, they're giving it to the wrong guy. Mark Ingram is getting nearly twice as many carries per game as Pierre Thomas, like he did last year. That needs to change. Thomas was Football Outsiders' top-ranked runner in football in each of his last two healthy seasons (2009 and 2011). We need to keep those numbers in context - thanks to Brees, Thomas rarely saw a defense with eight men in the box, and he enjoyed plenty of crushing blocks from Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans, the league's best guard combo. We could say the same for Ingram, though, and he was much worse than Thomas last season, finishing 22nd in our rankings. This year, despite getting barely half as many opportunities as Ingram, Thomas has 59 more yards on the ground and only one fewer first down. The Saints can avoid early deficits by making Thomas, not Ingram, their primary runner early in games.

Eventually, though, they will have to throw, and that's been a problem so far this year, particularly for the team's wideouts. In 2011, the Saints threw 45 percent of their passes to wide receivers, and those passes were complete 70 percent of the time. This year, only 40 percent of the passes are going to wideouts, and they're only being caught 47 percent of the time. Marques Colston has been a particular disappointment. The Saints' leading wide receiver last season has missed practice with a foot injury lately, and he has been ineffective in games, with only seven catches this year (and remember that Drew Brees has already put 101 passes in the air). Without their best outside receiver to draw coverage and stretch the field, the Saints' remaining wideouts have been shut down, and the passing game is largely limited to dumpoffs to Darren Sproles, who ranks second in the league in receptions going into Monday night. Getting Sproles the ball in space against defenses that have been stretched across the gridiron is a great idea. Relying on Sproles to crack defenses that are bunched up near the line of scrimmage? Less effective.

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For all its faults, the offense has been productive at times this year. Not so for the defense. The Saints rank dead last in points allowed per game, after ranking 13th in that category last season. Looks like a collapse, but what it really shows is that without the support of a Hall of Fame quarterback at his peak, this defense is not and was not good. In Football Outsiders' rankings, the Saints finished 28th in 2011. Why the disconnect between the two measurements? Their middle-of-the-pack ranking in points allowed last seasonhad as much to do with their offense as it did with their defense. They benefited from great field position - the average drive against New Orleans started inside the opponents' 26-yard line, better than 27 other teams. And since the Saints were ahead so often, opponents were forced to give up on the run game. No defense saw fewer rushing plays, and that meant the safeties were free to stay deep and help out on any deep routes. This year? The average drive against New Orleans has started at the 30-yard line. May not seem significant, but over 12 drives per game that's more than 50 yards of real estate worse than a year ago. And due to the offense's struggles, no defense has seen more carries in 2012 than the Saints. That has forced the secondary to crowd the line of scrimmage, which in turn has left them vulnerable to big plays when opponents have passed. New Orleans gave up 49 completions of 20 or more yards in 2011. They have already given up 12 such plays this year.

Even if the Saints can find a way to fix all these problems, is their time left to save an 0-2 season? A few years back we looked at how likely a team was to make the playoffs based on their record at various points throughout the season. In 17 years' worth of data, teams that started 0-2 came back to make the playoffs only 11.4 percent of the time. That's bad news for New Orleans, and also for their opponents in Week 3. The Kansas City Chiefs are also 0-2, which makes their game against the Saints on Sunday critical for both teams. The loser falls to 0-3, which historically means a 3.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. The winner, though, will be 1-2, with a 22.7 percent shot at postseason action. Those are still long odds, but long odds are all the Saints have left.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Brandon Weeden CLE 26/37 322 2 0 149 148 2 A week ago in this space, we told you that Brandon Weeden was the league's worst quarterback in Week 1, and now we are telling you that he was the league's best quarterback in Week 2. That's largely because he played Cincinnati this week after his first game against Philadelphia, and these two games will look different when we apply opponent adjustments to DYAR. (Joe Flacco also looked much worse against the Eagles than he did against the Bengals.) In one stretch over the third and fourth quarters, Weeden completed 12 passes in a row for 178 yards, two touchdowns, and seven other first downs. 2. Andy Dalton CIN 24/31 318 3 1 120 119 1 Was this the best shootout in the history of the Bengals-Browns rivalry? No. Including sacks, the two teams combined for 604 yards passing. They've topped that twice before, led by a 2007 contest when Derek Anderson and Carson Palmer combined for 722 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Browns won that game 51-45. Including a DPI, Dalton had six 20-yard completions (to five different receivers). Only Michael Vick and Eli Manning had more. 3. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25/31 275 2 0 114 114 0 When Roethlsiberger hit Mike Wallace for a 37-yard touchdown in the third quarter, he was 15-of-19 for 196 yards with two touchdowns and two sacks. And then he went into a deep freeze. His next 11 dropbacks produced 47 yards (including a 25-yard gain on third-and-32, one of the longer failed completions you'll ever see) and zero first downs. He finished on an up note, converting third-and-4 and third-and-3. 4. Cam Newton CAR 14/20 253 1 0 103 90 13 Newton only threw seven deep passes (16 or more yards downfield) against New Orleans, but he made them count, completing five of them for 167 yards. Only two of his runs were listed as scrambles, and neither of them were successful. 5. Matt Ryan ATL 24/36 219 2 0 99 98 1 6. Sam Bradford STL 26/35 313 3 1 94 88 7 Was this Bradford's best game ever? We'll see what opponent adjustments do to it at the end of the year, but for now it's second-best DYAR behind his Week 12 2010 game against Denver, when he went 22-of-37 for 308 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. By the way, if you're looking for Danny Amendola in the receiving tables, he finished 13th among wideouts this week. 15 receptions for 163 yards and a touchdown with only one incompletion, but he fumbled on his first reception. (Washington recovered the fumble for a touchdown, though that doesn't affect Amendola's DYAR.) If we ignore that play, Amendola would have finished third. 7. Philip Rivers SD 24/32 284 3 1 93 90 4 How to finish off a defeated foe: The Chargers had a 14-point lead in the middle of the third quarter. Rivers proceeded to complete each of his last 11 passes for 125 yards and 10 first downs, including a touchdown. 8. Eli Manning NYG 31/51 510 3 3 93 107 -13 The Giants may not have needed Eli's fourth-quarter comeback if he had played better on third downs. For the day, he converted only 4-of-12 third-down opportunities, and it's not because he was in long-yardage situations. On average, he needed less than 6 yards for a first down. He also threw two interceptions on third down, including his pick-six. 9. Ryan Tannehill MIA 18/30 200 1 0 85 71 15 What a streaky day. Started out for 4-for-6 for 68 yards. Then he went 6-of-14 for 22 yards and no first downs, plus a sack. And then he finished up 8-of-10 for 110 yards and a touchdown, plus an 18-yard DPI. 10. Alex Smith SF 20/31 226 2 0 75 69 5 Wasn't the Randy Moss signing supposed to bring the deep pass to the San Francisco playbook? Smith threw only two passes to receivers 16 or more yards downfield — and both of those were to Vernon Davis. He also only had two deep passes in Week 1, and one of those went to Davis too. 11. Andrew Luck IND 20/29 224 2 0 74 62 12 First half: 11-of-16 for 146 yards. Second half: 9-of 13 for 78 yards, plus two sacks, including a 22-yard loss from his own 38 while protecting a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter. 12. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 10/19 178 2 0 72 56 16 Started out 4-of-9 for 35 yards and only one first down. By that point, though the Bills were up 14-0. From then on he went 6-of-10 for 143 yards, including touchdowns of 10 and 49 yards. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Christian Ponder MIN 27/35 245 2 0 71 70 1 First three quarters: 12-of-15 for 105 yards, six first downs, with four sacks. Fourth quarter: 15-of-20 for 140 yards, including both touchdowns. 14. Matt Schaub HOU 26/35 195 0 0 60 60 0 Schaub's only 20-plus-yard gain came on a DPI on his last throw of the game. In one stretch from the middle of the first quarter to the middle of the third, he went 15-for 25 for only 90 yards (that's 6.0 per reception, and 3.6 yards per throw) and three first downs. 15. Russell Wilson SEA 15/20 151 1 0 53 39 14 First six drives: 8-of-12 for 79 yards with a sack, but only three first downs. Last three drives: 6-of-7 for 66 yards with five first downs, including a 22-yard score to Anthony McCoy, plus one sack. He also ran for two first downs in the fourth quarter. 16. Michael Vick PHI 23/32 371 1 2 49 35 14 Vick scored the winning touchdown on a 1-yard run to cap off quite the hot-and-cold day inside the red zone. He had seven carries inside the Ravens' 20 (four of them scrambles) for 36 yards. Six of those carries were successful plays. The seventh was a 6-yard gain on third-and-seven; the Eagles converted a fourth-and-1 on the next play. His four pass plays in the red zone, though, were dreadful: one interception, one fumbled snap, and two incompletions, one of which was originally ruled a sack/fumble before being over-ruled on replay. On the other hand, outside the red zone, he went 23-of-29 for 371 yards, with an interception and two sacks. 17. Tom Brady NE 28/45 316 1 1 48 52 -4 Brady's first pass of the game was intercepted, and he didn't fare much better for most of the game. Through three quarters he was 14-of-25 for 150 yards, with the INT, three sacks, and only six first downs. Then in the fourth he went 14-of-20 for 166 yards, with one sack and 11 first downs, including a 5-yard touchdown to Rob Gronkowski. 18. Carson Palmer OAK 24/48 373 1 1 39 40 -1 Palmer's biggest play of the day was a 64-yard touchdown to Mike Goodson that was caught 6 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Goodson then produced 70 YAC that had little to do with Palmer. What Palmer had a lot to do with was Oakland's lousy performance on third downs: He went 3-of-11 on those plays for 19 yards, with just one conversion. 19. Matt Stafford DET 19/32 230 1 1 36 31 6 Stafford threw 11 passes in the second and third quarters, and eight of them were targeted at Calvin Johnson. Five of them were caught, one for a 24-yard gain, the other four for 14 yards combined. Only two of his 12 fourth-quarter passes were thrown to Johnson, caught for 26- and 22-yard gains. He was also sacked twice in the game's final frame. 20. Mark Sanchez NYJ 10/27 138 1 0 15 15 0 On the first drive, Sanchez went 4-of-5 for 81 yards and a touchdown, and also had 12 yards on a DPI, for four first downs. His next 19 dropbacks resulted in one sack, one DPI, three completions, 14 incompletions, two first downs, and 35 net yards. He made a few more plays in the fourth quarter, but by then the Jets were down by 17 points. 21. Matt Cassel KC 24/41 301 2 1 11 1 10 First three quarters: 16-of 27 for 171 yards and nine first downs, with five sacks and an intentional grounding. At that point, the Chiefs were down by 32 points, and Cassel did some serious fantasy stat-padding going 7-of-13 for 130 yards and six first downs, including a pair of touchdowns. His interception on the last play of the game counts as a Hail Mary and is treated like any other Hail Mary in our system. 22. Drew Brees NO 32/49 325 1 2 10 1 9 As noted in the main essay, Brees struggled to get the ball to his wide receivers. His first five passes were all targeted at Darren Sproles. Brees threw 49 passes, and only targeted his wideouts 13 times, completing seven for 93 yards. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 23. Kevin Kolb ARI 15/27 140 1 0 4 5 0 A similar game to Sanchez, kinda. On his first drive, Kolb went 4-of-6 for 29 yards and two first downs to set up a field goal. in the rest of the first half, he went 4-of-9 for 30 yards and no first downs. He rebounded in the third quarter (5-of-8 for 74 yards and five first downs, including a 2-yard touchdown pass), and did almost literally nothing in the fourth (2-of-4 for 9 yards, no first downs). 24. Robert Griffin WAS 21/29 206 1 1 -10 -55 45 That's a bit of an empty completion percentage for Griffin. Eleven of his completions failed to gain successful yardage, most of any quarterback in Week 2. 25. Tony Romo DAL 23/40 251 1 1 -16 -16 0 First six third-down plays: 5-of-6, 78 yards, five first downs. Next six third-down plays: 2-of-6, 28 yards, one first down. 26. Jake Locker TEN 15/30 174 1 1 -25 -32 7 The Titans only ran five plays in the first quarter against San Diego, and Locker only threw two passes, an incompletion and an interception. By the time Locker got his first first down, Philip Rivers had thrown seven, including two touchdowns, and the Chargers were ahead 17-0. 27. Josh Freeman TB 15/28 243 2 2 -28 -28 0 Freeman didn't throw a single pass in the red zone, largely because he was so erratic in the front zone (the space between the Giants' 20 and 40) and mid zone (between the 40s). In that part of the field, Freeman went 4-of-11 with a sack and only two first downs. Of course, those first downs were actually touchdowns of 41 and 29 yards. 28. Aaron Rodgers GB 22/32 219 1 1 -48 -48 0 Since Jay Cutler had such a bad day (as we'll explain shortly) and the Packers got a touchdown on a fake field-goal attempt, Rodgers' struggles largely flew under the radar. In the first half, he went 14-of-21, but only gained 128 yards and six first downs, while surrendering four sacks. He did throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter to put Green Bay up 20-3, but then threw an interception to set up a Chicago touchdown before the game was entirely out of reach. 29. Peyton Manning DEN 24/37 241 1 3 -52 -49 -3 30. Blaine Gabbert JAC 7/19 53 1 0 -86 -87 1 Gabbert's first half, plus the first drive of the second half: 4-of-13 with two sacks, zero first downs, -4 net yards. His longest play to that point was a 6-yard gain on third-and-29. Jacksonville started their next drive at the Houston 37, and Gabbert hit Laurent Robinson for 32 yards and then Maurice Jones-Drew for the touchdown, and somehow it was a 10-point game. Gabbert would get five more plays, and they went like this: incomplete, 3-yard completion on third-and-14, sack, incomplete, incomplete. Seriously, he dropped back 16 times and gained successful yardage twice. 31. Joe Flacco BAL 22/42 232 1 1 -97 -97 0 Flacco had four completions for 20 or more yards, one in each quarter. Otherwise, he went 18-of-38 for 111 yards with an interception, two sacks, and only five first downs. That's 2.3 yards per play. Obviously, all quarterbacks will look bad if you take away their biggest completions, but Flacco had a particularly drastic all-or-nothing day. 32. Jay Cutler CHI 11/27 126 1 4 -234 -241 7 Last week, we tried to measure the historical badness of Brandon Weeden's first game. Well, without opponent adjustments, this was worse. ESPN Stats & Info has a piece on the rarity of four-INT, seven-sack games with all sorts of numerical trivia, but suffice to say that the last player to do it was Patrick Ramsey of the Redskins against the Saints in October of 2002, nearly a decade ago. Only once all game did he manage to go six straight dropbacks without a sack or interception, and in those six plays he went 3-of-6 for 33 yards. And that was the best string of plays he put together all night.

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. C.J. Spiller BUF 123 2 47 0 80 59 22 In 15 carries, Spiller had more gains of 10-plus yards (three, capped off by a 38-yarder) then stuffs for no gain or a loss (two). He finished with five first downs, including two scores. He also caught each of the three passes thrown his way, including gains of 19 and 27 yards. 2. Ben Tate HOU 74 2 23 0 58 43 15 Ten of Tate's 12 carries gained positive yardage and six gained first downs, including a pair of red-zone touchdowns. He also caught each of the four passes thrown his way for two more first downs. 3. Pierre Thomas NO 110 0 33 0 57 44 12 On the one hand, the 48-yarder on his last run kind of skews Thomas' average for the day. On the other hand, three of his other nine runs also gained at least ten yards, and he gained at least 2 yards on every carry. He also caught four of the six passes thrown his way, including three first downs. 4. Willis McGahee DEN 113 2 11 0 50 53 -3 McGahee had three 10-yard runs in the first quarter, including a 31-yarder. His last seven carries of the game came in the red zone. All seven gained positive yardage, two were touchdowns, two others were first down, and six qualified as successful plays. 5. Trent Richardson CLE 109 1 36 1 50 32 18 Kind of a quietly effective day. Richardson's 19 carries produced only two first downs (including a 32-yard score), but he had six other successful runs of 3 to 9 yards, and was stuffed for a loss only twice. He also caught four of the five passes thrown to him, including a 23-yard touchdown.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Michael Turner ATL 42 1 0 0 -43 -38 -5 You know who was happy to see Turner so ineffective on Monday night? Ryan Williams of the Arizona Cardinals, who was saved from being the least valuable running back for the second week in a row after gaining 13 yards and a fumble in ten carries against New England. As for Turner, he only had three successful carries all night: a 1-yard touchdown (on third down, after he was stuffed on first and second down, including a second-down fumble that Atlanta recovered), a 5-yard gain on second-and-8, and a 15-yard gain on Atlanta's final drive to run out the clock. His other 14 carries averaged 1.5 yards each. And he's Michael Turner, historically useless as a receiver, so of course his only catch gained zero yards.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Hakeem Nicks NYG 10 15 199 19.9 1 68 In addition to the numbers seen here, Nicks drew a 16-yard DPI. He had four plays of 20 or more yards, including a 40- and 50-yarders. 2. Dante Rosario SD 4 4 48 12.0 3 49 Three of Rosario's catches were red-zone touchdowns, two of them on third downs. His other catch was an 18-yard gain on first-and-10. 3. Roddy White ATL 8 11 102 12.8 1 45 The first two passes thrown to White were incomplete, and the next was an 8-yard gain on first-and-10. Each of his other receptions gained a first down, including gains of 20 and 21 yards. 4. Malcom Floyd SD 6 8 109 18.2 0 42 Each of Floyd's catches gained 11 to 27 yards and a first down, including two 20-yarders. 5. Victor Cruz NYG 11 17 179 16.3 1 42 Two of the passes thrown to Cruz were intercepted, though in DYAR it's Eli Manning who gets the blame for those, not Cruz. It's usually Cruz, not Nicks, who specializes in big plays for New York, but Cruz only had two 20-yarders to Nicks' four. Of course, one of Cruz's went for 80 yards. So there's that.