The "Waterloo" Strategy

Let's go back for a moment to the original promise DeMint made in July of 2009 that the August recess would be the death of health care legislation and a crushing blow to the new President's power and agenda:

I can almost guarantee you this thing won't pass before August, and if we can hold it back until we go home for a month's break in August," members of Congress will hear from "outraged" constituents, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint said on the call, which was organized by the group Conservatives for Patients Rights. "Senators and Congressmen will come back in September afraid to vote against the American people," DeMint predicted, adding that "this health care issue Is D-Day for freedom in America." "If we’re able to stop Obama on this it will be his Waterloo. It will break him," he said.

The stated strategy was to scare the living daylights out of enough Senators and Representatives that they returned to Washington and abandoned any effort to change the status quo. It isn't hard to kill health reform - it's hard to pass it. After all, no President in a century of trying had been able to move a comprehensive reform bill successfully through Congress. The last effort died 15 years ago without even getting a floor vote in either chamber. So a whole lot of noise in home districts should have been enough to do the trick, especially with a tough economy making voters nervous and a midterm election to worry about.

But that isn't what happened. Reform came back from the dead, again and again. August was not the Waterloo-sized defeat they were looking for - instead it was part of a long difficult war that is finally coming to a close with victory in sight for the Democrats. There were several turning points, several opportunities to shut it down, but all of them have so far failed to break us.

How Reform Survived Again and Again

First in August, the The News Big Media Won't Report was how supporters totally outhustled opponents on the ground, outnumbering them at townhalls and staging rallies in major cities across the country. OFA posted huge numbers, as did allies like HCAN, labor unions, Doctors for America, and many other offline organizations. Move-On and FDL also sent pro-reform folks out to the townhalls. In most places, members of Congress saw tea party protestors met by a much larger number of their constituents actively supporting the most liberal versions of reform.

And then in September the President gave a major address calling for Congress to move forward, to deal with the untenable status quo that leaves tens of millions without insurance, and hundreds of millions facing rising costs, consumer abuses, and the knowledge that if they lose their jobs they may wind up uninsured. The House shut out the tea party callers screaming in their ear, OFA made 300,000 calls on October 20, many other organizations continued to call, write and advocate, and in early November the House passed its bill. The Senate side was an ugly process that produced a messy result and some painful losses for progressives, resulting in many myths and misconceptions about the good pieces of that bill. It wasn't pretty but by Christmas we had two successful floor votes despite a massive campaign to defeat reform altogether.

And then came January, Scott Brown and we came perilously close to losing everything. Suddenly everyone was afraid to close the deal, but a broad coalition of voices demanded they "pass the damn bill," Benen and Plouffe told them to buck up, and the President stepped into the vacuum. Less than 72 hours after Massachusetts he was out at a town hall event saying he would not quit on reform. He could have backed off or scaled back but he tripled down instead - from the State of the Union to the healthcare summit to a sustained attack on rising insurance premiums. A couple of bloggers built a coalition including Move-On and HCAN and generated a petition drive of over 1 million in a single day. Waterloo staved off yet again.

One of the longstanding myths of the political trajectory of reform is that the tea party had a huge victory in August against the bill and that Democrats have little success to show for their year-long legislative effort. In fact, the tea party has failed to reach its goal so far. They have failed to kill the bill. Certainly they did some damage. They made Democrats in more conservative districts nervous, which probably had an effect on how liberal the final packages looked in the House and Senate. But no one on the right is walking away celebrating Medicaid expansion to 133% instead of 150% of the poverty level. The tea party activists aren't thinking "Thank God we made them settle for just a highly regulated exchange that will make insurance better and cheaper for tens of millions of Americans - we really had a big win there keeping out the public option."

Despite the tea party protests, 8 times as many industry lobbyists as members of Congress, and virtually unanimous Republican opposition, the Democrats are on the verge of a permanent seismic shift in the American political culture.

Waterloo for Conservatism

One of the biggest reasons I supported Barack Obama early on was because of a signature line in his campaign speeches, about changing the view Americans have of government, a powerful call to reclaim activist government: "I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper."

He frequently said that this value of shared responsibility for each other "must express itself through our government." Beginning with the Reagan administration we have seen a three-decade long assault on this value. For so long progressive change has been held back by the myth that Americans won't support activist government and that it is risky politics to even try for it. Even in the depths of economic catastrophe, Republicans resisted government stimulus that could help. Despite the clear market failure that is health insurance in the United States, the Party of No fears any solution that might make Americans question their message that government is always the enemy of the people. That might make Americans remember that it's our government and it is there to help us when we need it.

This legislation, for all its limitations, represents the first time the federal government has said every American - sick or healthy, lucky or unlucky -- deserves access to affordable health insurance. We owe it to each other. I may be young and healthy and have insurance right now, but that can and will change. And many of my fellow Americans are not so lucky. The Democratic plan says we are, all of us, "my brother's/sister's keeper." The Republican "plan" simply reinforces the divide between the healthy and the sick, the lucky and the unlucky, and says its up to every individual to take care of themselves. Jon Chait recently put it this way:

What separates the two parties is not how far to go, but in which direction to go. The divide is simple. Democrats propose to shift resources from the rich and the healthy to the poor and the sick. Republicans want to do just the opposite. Republican health care plans reflect the party’s increasingly widespread belief that good health, like other forms of prosperity, is a matter of personal responsibility. Democratic plans to help the sick at the expense of the healthy therefore amount to socialism.

This is a no-hold-barred fight over two radically different philosophies. Chris Bowers has been writing about all the elements of reform that reflect progressive advocacy and organizing, and it is a good list.

But understanding this as a progressive win over a regressive philosophy goes beyond even the specific elements of the legislation. It's the very idea of the government addressing reform comprehensively with such a big package and such generous funding. Progressives must win this fight, because it is so critical to the future direction of the Democratic Party and its agenda . As Steve Benen says

This is why Democrats exist . . . . comprehensive health care reform . . . is at the core of the party's platform, and has been the Democrats' raison d'etre for decades. It is, to a very real extent, precisely why the party exists. . . . if the party backs off its most important issue, on the eve of a transformative victory, its entire agenda is suspect.

That's why losing this is a potential Waterloo-level defeat. Imagine walking away from all that we have now on the table, and expecting to get Congress to again tackle a comprehensive bill with a $900 billion level authorization any time soon. On the other hand, signing the current Senate bill into law with the reconciliation fixes will be a big win for the Democrats and a devastating blow to the Republicans.

That's why the GOP has fought this from Day 1, and is concern trolling this final vote as hard as it can.

Passing reform will be Waterloo several times over for the Republican governing philosophy of "going it alone," for their long term goal of dividing Americans from their government, and for their prospects of a big win in November. How can we resist such an opportunity - especially with the added delightful bonus of driving Rush Limbaugh to leave the country?

Democrats will have delivered a tangible, popular political initiative (the elements of the current reform bill poll extremely well and that overall popularity is rising), triumphed over adversity to pull it off, and taken a critical step toward boosting turnout for the party in November.

OFA is upping the ante, by pledging over 9 million hours from their volunteer base for members of Congress who support reform. From the group that pulled off 1000 phonebanks and 2 million calls for Coakley in a matter of days, having this army put to work for you should be appealing to any Democrat running for re-election this fall. OFA volunteers are already working for two strong health care supporters facing tough races this fall: Senator Michael Bennet in Colorado and Congressman Tom Perriello in Virginia. And around the country state staff and volunteer Community Organizers are calling people who signed up to take the pledge and talking to them about how they can take action. (Click here to take the pledge.)

So the choice is clear - pass healthcare reform and strike a serious blow to three decades of troubling conservative political philosophy, while helping Democrats in tough races this fall. Not to mention deal a major defeat to a year-long campaign of lies and obstruction and show that the tea party can't kill a core Democratic priority. And if that's not incentive enough, there's always making Rush Limbaugh leave the country. Now that's what I call Waterloo.

If you haven't called or emailed or tweeted your Representative and Senators yet, what are you waiting for?

OFA HEALTHCARE ACTION CENTER

UPDATES: Some truly amazing comments, thank you. A number of folks have pointed out that we shouldn't be celebrating anything until this is done and that we have a lot of work to do. Absolutely right. This isn't an effort to "declare victory" as much as an effort to talk about what victory would mean and how important it is. And also a reminder that a lot of people have fought really hard to get this far, overcoming tremendous obstacles, and so we can bring this home if we all step up to the plate. As for the video clip, well, I just thought it was a hoot. And sometimes we need a little fun to keep us going.

Finally, if you haven't gotten an email in your inbox from David Plouffe yet today, check out the new OFA Final March campaign designed to help push this over the line.