Orange County continued its trend toward an electorate that looks more like the rest of the Democratic state when it supported Proposition 47 – which reduces some non-violent felonies to misdemeanors – with 53 percent of the vote.

Republicans had a good mid-term election nationwide and in Orange County wrested two state legislative seats from Democrats. But a Register analysis of Prop. 47 is in line with a broader ongoing shift of county voters.

The county GOP advantage over Democrats has steadily declined from 22 percentage points in 1990 to 9 points today, with little indication that the slide’s end is in sight. The area’s shifting demographics – particularly growth in Latino and other ethnic minority voter rolls – are typically cited as the biggest factor.

Orange County joined 34 other counties in supporting Prop. 47, giving it 59 percent of the vote statewide. The most heavily Democratic counties gave the measure the broadest margin of support, while 21 of the 24 counties voting against it were Republican.

“The general trend is exactly what you would predict: Conservatives are tougher on crime,” said Peter Ditto, a UC Irvine sociologist specializing in political partisanship.

Orange County was among 11 GOP counties backing the measure, signaling that they have a more moderate electorate on the issue than most Republican counties.

Cities in Orange County followed a similar trend as counties statewide. Cities opposing Prop. 47 tended to be heavily Republican. The five most supportive cities voted for Gov. Jerry Brown’s reelection and all seven of the cities favoring Brown were among the county’s most supportive of the measure.

Orange County cities with the highest level of violent crime were also among the most supportive. However, the Register analysis lacked data to establish a cause-and-effect correlation.

Reducing prisoners

After decades of ever stricter laws resulting in more and more prisoners, Prop. 47 is one of several indications that trend has come to an end – at least for now.

Incarceration rates have outstripped the state’s ability to house everyone sentenced, resulting in court orders to reduce the prison population and a “realignment” plan to divert some state prisoners to county jails. That, in turn, has contributed to some county jails being unable to handle their load of prisoners.

Los Angeles jails have received particular attention for the overcrowding problem because it has many high-profile prisoners. Last month, former state Sen. Roderick Wright showed up to serve his 90-day sentence for perjury and was released within hours because of overcrowding.

Orange County jails came close to having this problem following realignment last year, but recently had empty beds.

The state’s voters took a step toward easing incarceration rates in 2012 by approving Proposition 36, which rolled back some of the more controversial provisions of the state’s three-strikes law. Orange County approved the measure, with 65 percent of voters agreeing. Statewide, the measure won 69 percent of the vote.

“Prop. 36 was the first voter initiative since the Civil War to reduce the sentences of inmates currently behind bars,” according to an analysis by Stanford Law School’s Three Strikes Project.

Prop. 47 continues in that vein, reducing penalties for certain offenses concerning drug possession, writing bad checks, and the theft of $950 or less.

“There’s a growing sentiment that we’re spending a huge amount of money on locking people up and getting very little benefit from it,” said Scott Sugarman, president of the pro-Prop. 47 California Attorneys for Criminal Justice.

CACJ and other proponents touted the money that would be saved – hundreds of millions annually, according the state’s non-partisan legislative analyst – and hoped that would entice bi-partisan support on Election Day.

A range of Republicans

Orange County was an example of that bi-partisan support, although a closer look indicates that support came most strongly from Democratic areas in the county and from areas with a balance of Republicans and Democrats. The cities most opposed tended to be Republican strongholds.

Villa Park, where Republicans have a 45 percentage point advantage in voter registration and is the county’s most GOP city, was most opposed to Prop. 47, with 59 percent voting “No.”

Next most opposed was Yorba Linda, the third most GOP city, followed by Mission Viejo, the seventh most GOP city.

The strongest support, 66 percent, came from the Democratic city of Laguna Beach, followed by Santa Ana, Irvine, Stanton, Laguna Woods and Costa Mesa.

Santa Ana and Stanton are Democratic cities that voted for Brown. Irvine and Laguna Woods are cities where Republicans have a thin edge in voter registration and were among the four GOP cities in the county that also voted for Brown.

Costa Mesa breaks that pattern. Republicans have an 8-point advantage in voter registration and it voted for Republican Neel Kashkari for governor.

What Costa Mesa does have in common with many of the most pro-Prop. 47 cities is a violent crime rate above average for the county. Violent crime – rape, murder, assault and robbery – averaged 269 incidents per 10,000 residents over the past decade in cities supporting the measure. In cities opposed, the average was 135 incidents.

Criminologists and political scientists who reviewed the Register’s data warned that there were too many other factors to determine if there was a causal correlation.

“There are so many variables that affect these things,” said UC Irvine criminologist Keramet Reiter, adding that issues of income, race, age, and voting over a broad period of time should also be considered.

And there some glaring exceptions: Irvine and Laguna Woods have the county’s two lowest rates of violent crime but were strong supporters of the measure.

Contact the writer: mwisckol@ocregister.com