Joseph Gerth

Opinion Columnist | Louisville Courier Journal

With time running out before the Iowa caucus and his polling still in the low single digits, Sen. Rand Paul finds himself desperately needing a strong showing in the Hawkeye State to get back into the presidential discussion.

Once a promising candidate who was leading in some polls two years ago, the U.S. senator from Kentucky has seen his fortunes plummet as his message became lost in a large field of GOP contenders who had more money and more star-power.

Now, says Dave Nalle, the vice chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus, which has endorsed Paul, the candidate is re-emphasizing his libertarian roots in a final dash that Nalle says is crucial for him to stay relevant.

“I think it’s vitally important,” Nalle said of the Feb. 1 Iowa caucus where he said Paul must do better than polling now shows - which he expects Paul to do.

According to the most recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, Paul gets 5 percent of the vote and sits in fifth place among likely caucus-goers in Iowa behind U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, businessman Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

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Nalle’s group last week endorsed Paul because Nalle said his small-government, libertarian message is more pure than that of his opponents, who he said are pandering to establishment Republicans to win votes.

A stronger-than-expected showing in Iowa could give Paul some steam headed into other early primary and caucus states like New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, he said.

“The higher he goes, the more momentum he gets,” Nalle said.

But Nalle is in the minority.

Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said “not a soul” outside the Paul organization believes Paul has any chance of winning the nomination.

Second-tier candidates are in the race, at this point, to increase name recognition and keep attention focused on them, Sabato said.

“They’re all addicted to the roar of the crowd and there is nothing like a presidential campaign,” he said.

Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, agreed that the race is essentially over for Paul - something that she said was underscored when he didn’t make the prime-time GOP presidential debate in South Carolina last week.

“I can’t imagine that there is anything he can do to break into the pack chasing Trump,” she said.

Paul’s campaign manager Chip Englander and chief adviser Doug Stafford didn’t respond to numerous attempts to contact them over three days.

Stafford didn't respond to numerous requests for an interview but said in a statement Monday Paul is still fighting for voter support.

"Iowa and beyond are wide open," Stafford said after this story appeared online. "These same polls indicated over half of voters are still undecided. Rand is in it to win it and is on the rise."

The belief among analysts that the race is over for Paul and concern that he needs to focus his efforts on being re-elected to the Senate haven’t stopped him from plowing ahead with his presidential campaign.

And as of late, Paul appears to have been working harder to reclaim the libertarian heritage of his father, former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, a Republican who once ran for president on the Libertarian ticket.

Sabato said Paul alienated some of his father’s supporters by changing some of his views in the course of the presidential race to fit Republican orthodoxy.

Those changes came largely in the area of foreign policy where Paul went from downplaying the threat posed by Iran and supporting normalized diplomatic relations to taking a more strident approach and opposing President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with the country.

He also sponsored a resolution declaring war with the Islamic State.

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Recently, though, Paul has been more dovish. He’s repeatedly attacked New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for wanting to set up a no-fly zone over Syria.

And he has gone after Trump for not knowing during a December debate about America’s “nuclear triad,” its ability to deliver nuclear weapons from bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched missiles. He was also critical after Trump’s spokeswoman said that Trump would not be afraid to use nuclear weapons.

After he didn’t make the South Carolina debate last week, Paul went on a two-day media tour of New York City television and radio, appearing non-stop almost on the air trying to get his libertarian message out – hitting hard on the issue of limited overseas military engagement and government prying into private affairs.

“I have a unique voice. I am the one voice saying we shouldn’t make the sand glow. I’m the one voice saying … the government shouldn’t be collecting all your records,” he said during an appearance on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on Wednesday.

Those were also recurring themes during an 80-minute webcast Paul held on Twitter during the South Carolina debate on the Fox Business Channel.

Duffy said that Paul hasn’t been able to capture all of the network of support that Ron Paul cultivated over the years - some of which has gone to Cruz, Trump and Rubio - and that it's likely too late for him to reclaim it.

But Nalle said Paul is on the right course to take back the so-called “liberty voters” who have left the Paul family fold. “I think he’s listening to his constituents,” Nalle said. “A lot of us have urged him not to moderate his views.”

Joseph Gerth can be reached at 502-582-4702 or jgerth@courier-journal.com. Follow him on Twitter at @Joe_Gerth.