How K Street sees the midterms Presented by the Consumer Brands Association

With David Beavers, Sarah Cammarata and Daniel Lippman

HOW K STREET SEES THE MIDTERMS: With five days to go before the midterms, Washington’s lobbying firms are finishing up their final election memos to clients. Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck sent one to clients on Wednesday afternoon, and K&L Gates sent one Thursday morning. Brownstein Hyatt’s memo helpfully breaks down the potential turnover on each committee due to retirements and possible losses, giving a sense of the scale of the changes that could occur on certain committees.


— Take the House Financial Services Committee, for instance. Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) is retiring. So are Reps. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.), Ed Royce (R-Calif.), Dave Trott (R-Mich.) and Ruben Kihuen (D-Nev.). Five members of the committee aren’t coming back after choosing to run for other offices: Rep. Luke Messer (R-Ind.), who ran for Senate but lost in the primary; Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.), who’s running for governor; Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who’s running for Senate; Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.), who’s running for state attorney general; and Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.), who’s running a long-shot campaign for president. And Reps. Robert Pittenger (R-N.C.) and Mike Capuano (D-Mass.) lost their primaries. That’s a dozen members who are definitely gone.

— Now take into account the committee members who might be defeated next week. Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.) is the most endangered, according to the Cook Political Report. He’s running against Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb due to redistricting, and the race is rated likely Democratic. Another seven members are in races that are rated toss-ups: Reps. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), Ted Budd (R-N.C.), Randy Hultgren (R-Ill.), Mia Love (R-Utah), Tom MacArthur (R-N.J.), Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine) and Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.). If all of them lose next week — which isn’t outside the realm of possibility — a third of the committee’s 60 members would be gone. Other committee members could be in trouble, too: Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.), whose race is rated “Lean Republican,” and Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.), Pete King (R-N.Y.), Scott Tipton (R-Colo.) and Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), whose races are rated “Likely Republican.” Just one Democrat is considered at risk: Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), whose race is rated “Likely Democratic.”

— K&L Gates takes a different approach in its memo, outlining what might happen in both chambers depending on which party controls them. If Democrats win back the House, they’ve “indicated they want to quickly pursue an ethics and campaign finance reform package should they assume control of the House,” the firm writes. “Among the other items that may be on their legislative agenda are an infrastructure package, lowering the price of prescription drugs, protecting participants in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program (an upcoming court ruling on DACA will likely force action on this issue, regardless of which party controls the House), working to preserve and protect the Affordable Care Act (ACA), gun control, and protecting voting rights, among other items.”

— “House Democrats will also move quickly to pursue a wide-ranging oversight agenda focused on hearings and investigations into the Trump administration. The impact of these investigations on government agencies could be paralyzing, with many agencies understaffed to reply to the requests for documentation and testimony.” The memo also delves into what might happen in different issue areas, such as the environment, financial services, health care, taxes and trade.

— Here’s Brownstein Hyatt’s full memo. Here’s K&L Gates’ full memo.

Good afternoon, and welcome to PI. Are you headed out to a battleground state or district this weekend for the home stretch of the campaign? If so, drop me a line: [email protected]. You can also follow Marianne (who’s on vacation this week) and me on Twitter: @theodoricmeyer and @marianne_levine.

WELLS FARGO HIRES MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION LOBBYIST: Meghan Sullivan is joining Wells Fargo as senior vice president for federal government relations. She was previously a lobbyist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, where her title was associate vice president for legislative affairs. The hire comes six months after Wells Fargo revamped its Washington office as it was fined $1 billion by federal regulators for “reckless unsafe or unsound practices.” Wells Fargo has spent nearly $2.6 million on Washington lobbying so far this year, according to disclosure filings.

WHY THE CHAMBER IS SPENDING LESS ON PRIMARIES: POLITICO’s Maggie Severns and Lorraine Woellert spotlight a trend that has mostly escaped notice: “The Club for Growth, a small-government group often at odds with the [ U.S. Chamber of Commerce], predicts that November's midterms will add as many as 15 Republican lawmakers to the 30-member Freedom Caucus, the uncompromising conservative bloc that doesn’t hesitate to buck congressional GOP leaders. Rather than fighting them off, the Chamber slashed its primary-season expenditures this cycle, spending just $3.6 million on political communications for its preferred candidates, compared to $11 million and $14 million in 2014 and 2016 respectively, according to federal election data.”

— Scott Reed, the Chamber’s senior political strategist, “said his group identified fewer primaries in 2018 that pitted moderates against less business-friendly conservatives, and the group felt its cash was not as critical in those races. It instead shifted spending to support vulnerable Republican incumbents, he said. 'It’s not a normal year,' Reed said in an interview. 'There weren’t a lot of primaries where there was a real, fundamental difference between the candidates, so we took a different approach.’” Full story.

Your 2018 Midterms HQ: The countdown is on. Policy professionals know the 2018 midterms represent more than keeping track of winners and losers. The outcome of high-stake contests could dramatically alter the course of policymaking across the country. Go beyond election night with POLITICO Pro’s 2018 Midterms HQ. Read More.

CORNYN AIDE LEAVES THE HILL: Sam Beaver is leaving the Hill to join the National Association of Manufacturers as a director of government relations. He was previously a policy adviser in Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn’s office. The association has spent $6.6 million on Washington lobbying to date this year and had 21 in-house lobbyists on staff in the third quarter, according to disclosure filings.

WHAT SOROS’ OPEN SOCIETY POLICY CENTER IS LOBBYING ON: The Daily Beast’s Lachlan Markay has an intriguing item in his newsletter on Washington influence, PAY DIRT, on George Soros’ Open Society Policy Center, which has “dropped millions of dollars this year in an attempt to steer proposals to overhaul the Foreign Agents Registration Act. But unlike many progressive organizations and legislators, the group’s primary concern isn’t surreptitious Russian influence on the American political process. In fact, Soros’ group is worried that overzealous Democrats will go too far, cast too wide a net, and turn FARA into a suppressing force that stigmatizes foreign-funded NGOs in the U.S. and prompts foreign governments to crack down on American ones.”

— Mort Halperin, a senior adviser to the Open Society Foundations, said he worried “that well-meaning attempts to strengthen the act will be used to crack down on Open Society’s activities abroad, and on some groups operating in the U.S. using funds derived from foreign governments. ‘There is a split within the liberal NGO community and therefore a split among members of Congress, some of whom find our arguments more persuasive, and some of whom find the arguments of the people who are concerned about transparency and accountability more persuasive,’ Halperin told” PAY DIRT.

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FORMER LOBBYIST COULD LEAD INTERIOR DEPARTMENT IF ZINKE LEAVES: POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre and Zack Colman take a look at Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s “heir apparent” if he leaves the job: David Bernhardt, the deputy secretary, who worked as a lobbyist at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck until 2016. “‘For the last month, if not longer, it has been a common reference, even from the secretary, that David needs to be ready,’ said a source close to Interior’s senior staff, who requested anonymity to discuss internal personnel matters. ‘Not anything actionable [was said], but Bernhardt could be in charge in the future and the implication was sooner rather than later.’” (The department says Zinke has no plans to resign.) Full story.

JOBS REPORT

— The music-licensing agency BMI has hired Michael Collins as its vice president for government relations. He was previously a lobbyist at Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas, where he lobbied for clients including the Business Roundtable, Chevron, Humana, the Mayo Clinic and Twitter.

— LivaNova, a medical device manufacturer based in London, has opened a Washington office and hired John Versaggi as vice president of government affairs. He was previously vice president of external affairs for UnitedHealth. The search for office space and for Versaggi was handled by Jeff Kimbell of Jeffrey J. Kimbell & Associates, which lobbies for the company.

— As Playbook noted this morning, Harbinger Strategies has hired Jonathan Slemrod as a partner. He plans to register as a lobbyist. He was previously associate director of legislative affairs in the OMB under Director Mick Mulvaney, as well as an adviser to Mulvaney in his role at the CFPB. He’s also a veteran of Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) presidential campaign and congressional office.

None

Battleground Kentucky (PAC)

Citizens for the Center (Unknown)

FORPAC Inc (PAC)

Restore Our Healthcare, Inc. (Super PAC)

The Ozarks (Super PAC)

David Turch & Assoc.: City of Santee, California

Kelley Drye & Warren LLP: HNI Corporation

BGR Government Affairs: Wine Institute

Council of the Americas: Council of The Americas

Cumberland North America, LLC: McConnell Valdes on behalf of ENGIE North America

R2P Strategies, LLC: BeIN Media Group LLC

The Gallagher Group, LLC: Defender Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Follow us on Twitter Theodoric Meyer @theodoricmeyer