by Vincent Verhei

The average quarterback in the NFL in 2016 is completing 63.1 percent of his passes, while throwing an interception just 2.2 percent of the time. Both would be the best marks for quarterbacks in league history. Our average 2016 passer is also averaging 7.20 yards per pass -- down a bit from 2014 (7.21) and 2015 (7.25), but otherwise better than every season since 1960*. He is throwing a touchdown on 4.2 percent of his passes, which is lower than the 5-plus percent rates of the '50s and '60s, but higher than the sub-4 percent rates of the early '90s. By any objective measure, the NFL has never had better overall passing than it has in recent seasons.

* NOTE: This sentence was originally published with slightly incorrect data. It has been fixed.

Why is it, then, that so many critics of the NFL say the biggest problem in the league is the proliferation of bad quarterbacks? CBS analyst Bart Scott, a former linebacker with the Ravens and Jets, has said as much publicly: "It's either the haves or have-nots, and listen, there's never been so many bad quarterbacks in the NFL -- ever." Scott actually said that in November of 2015, but it still applies this season. Scott specifically cited Blaine Gabbert as an example of a terrible starting quarterback, and though Gabbert has since been rightfully returned to the bench, his replacement Colin Kaepernick has hardly fared any better. The league still has enough Blake Bortles- and Ryan Fitzpatrick-types (to say nothing of the messes in Los Angeles and Houston) that any random NFL game seems likely to feature at least one quarterback who needs to be replaced.



So we have these two viewpoints, which seem to conflict with each other and yet both seem to be valid. So which is more accurate, the objective viewpoint, or the subjective?

Fortunately we have DVOA, a tool that is uniquely qualified to measure this sort of thing. One of the key features of DVOA is that it compares each quarterback to the average baselines of that specific season. For example, Eli Manning has completed 63.4 percent of his passes this year. That would have been the highest such rate in the NFL in 1990, but this year it is just 18th. As such, Manning is punished more for his incompletions this year than he would have been 26 years ago.

We have DVOA data for quarterbacks going back to 1989. Typically in that timespan, about 30 percent of all quarterbacks in a given season have had a DVOA of -10.0% or worse, and about 30 percent have had a DVOA of 10.0% or higher, with the remaining 40-ish percent falling in the middle. Looking at the data for each of those seasons, though, we find a changing trend that has been subtle, but very consistent:

Good, Bad, and Average QB Distribution, 1989-2016 Year Bad QBs

(DVOA Worse

Than -10%) Average QBs

(DVOA between

-10% and 10%) Good QBs

(DVOA Better

Than 10%) Total 1989 8 15 8 31 1990 9 10 10 29 1991 8 14 11 33 1992 10 8 12 30 1993 9 14 11 34 1994 6 18 8 32 1995 10 8 13 31 1996 7 16 12 35 1997 7 17 9 33 1998 11 10 13 34 1999 8 20 11 39 2000 13 17 10 40 2001 6 18 7 31 Year Bad QBs

(DVOA Worse

Than -10%) Average QBs

(DVOA between

-10% and 10%) Good QBs

(DVOA Better

Than 10%) Total 2002 10 15 11 36 2003 9 18 9 36 2004 13 11 12 36 2005 9 15 12 36 2006 9 15 11 35 2007 15 11 12 38 2008 7 16 11 34 2009 14 7 13 34 2010 8 15 11 34 2011 11 13 11 35 2012 13 13 12 38 2013 14 14 11 39 2014 8 20 9 37 2015 12 18 7 37 2016* 13 12 10 35 AVERAGE 9.9 14.2 10.6 34.7 * 175 passes needed to qualfy in 2016

The trend may not be obvious in that table, but if you read it very closely, you'll note that the numbers of quarterbacks in the "good" column have stayed about the same, while the numbers in the "bad" column have been generally growing. From 1989 to 2003, there were at least as many good quarterbacks as bad 14 times in 15 seasons. The one year in that span when bad quarterbacks outnumbered good was in 2000 -- a unique year, as we shall get to shortly.



[ad placeholder 3]

Since that 2003 season, though, things have changed. There have been more bad quarterbacks than good in eight of the 13 seasons since then, and four of the last five (both of these statistics include 2016, the numbers for which obviously are not final). The worst differential was set last season, when there were 12 bad quarterbacks and only seven good ones. With 13 bad passers and 10 good, 2016 would tie 2000, 2007, and 2013 as next-worst seasons on record when it comes to lousy quarterback differential.

So no, your eyes have not been deceiving you. In recent seasons, there really have been more bad quarterbacks across the NFL, with fewer good quarterbacks to balance them out. It's not crystal-clear exactly when this trend began, but it's probably not coincidental that the league expanded from 28 teams to 30 in 1995, then again to 31 in 1999, and finally to 32 in 2002. As pro football has grown, the NFL (and NCAA) have failed to produce a talent pool to grow along with it.

It is interesting to note what has happened in the Super Bowl after those seasons heavily slanted towards bad quarterback play:

In 2000, the Ravens had an all-time great defense that was capable of carrying Trent Dilfer to a championship over another mediocre quarterback in Kerry Collins.

[ad placeholder 4] In 2007, a record-setting Patriots offense was upset by a Giants team known more for its defense than for its offense.

The Seahawks' win over Denver in 2013 was hardly an upset like the Giants' win, but it was similar in that a record-setting offense was clearly outplayed by the opposing defense.

Finally, in 2015, we had a Super Bowl that was somewhat similar to that 2000 game, with an all-defense, no-offense champion (Denver) beating a more balanced opponent (Carolina).

That's a pretty random and obscure pattern, but should it hold true, it might be good news for Pittsburgh, Seattle, Baltimore, Denver, and the Giants -- this year's remaining Super Bowl contenders who are strongest on defense.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 1. Drew Brees NO 37/48 389 4 0 3 187 187 0 ARI With three minutes to go in the third, Brees got the ball in a tie game. That didn't last long -- he completed eight passes in a row on the drive, for 65 total yards, and Tim Hightower finished the drive with a 3-yard touchdown to put New Orleans ahead. Arizona came back and tied the game on their next drive, but no worries -- Brees was perfect again, completing five passes in a row, each for a first down, for 68 more yards and another go-ahead score. Between the two drives, that's 13 straight completions for 133 yards and two go-ahead scores in less than 15 minutes of game time. 2. Matt Ryan ATL 17/23 286 2 0 1 176 176 0 SF Ryan completed 74 percent of his passes, which is outstanding, but what's even more impressive is that he made those completions count. About 55 percent of all completions have gone for a first down this year. Only of of Ryan's completions, though, came up short of the sticks -- and that was a 4-yard gain on second-and-7. Put another way: The all-time record for passing first downs in a game is 29, set by the Giants against Cincinnati in 1985. It took them 40 completions and 62 attempts to get there. Ryan had half as many first downs on barely 40 percent as many completions and barely one-third as many attempts. 3. Andrew Luck IND 21/28 250 2 0 0 159 162 -3 MIN Late in the first quarter, when the Colts led just 3-0, they had a first-and-goal at the 3 and a chance to open a big lead. Luck then threw incompletions on first, second, and third down, and the Colts kicked a field goal. However, a Minnesota penalty took that field goal off the board, and the Colts added a rushing touchdown shortly thereafter. That sequence seemed to get all the bad football out of Luck's system -- from that point forward, he went 15-of-17 for 188 yards and two touchdowns. 4. Matt Moore MIA 13/18 236 4 1 1 122 122 0 NYJ It was feast or famine for Moore on third downs, with four conversions in nine attempts. The four conversions went for 71 total yards and three touchdowns, plus a 17-yard gain on third-and-6. The failures, though, consisted of three incomplete passes, one sack, and one interception. Another note of weirdness: Moore had only two passes on second down, a 7-yard completion, and an incomplete pass. 5. Dak Prescott DAL 32/36 279 0 0 3 114 99 14 TB Prescott's lob to Dez Bryant downfield just before halftime was notable. Not for what it achieved -- it was incomplete -- but for what followed. That was the last incompletion Prescott threw all day. He completed each of his last 12 passes, for 90 total yards. 6. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 21/35 286 1 0 1 112 112 0 CIN Roethlisberger hit a barrage of deep balls against Cincinnati, going 6-of-11 for 172 yards, with a 12th deep throw resulting in a DPI for 16 more yards. 7. Matt Barkley CHI 30/43 362 2 3 1 103 103 0 GB One of Barkley's interceptions came on a Hail Mary at the end of the first half, so we count that as an incompletion for DVOA and DYAR purposes. That was not the only deep failure Barkley had on the day though -- he threw seven passes that traveled more than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, with only one caught by the Bears (a 34-yard catch by Cameron Meredith), but three caught by the Packers. 8. Carson Palmer ARI 28/40 320 2 0 1 101 101 0 NO Palmer was nearly perfect in short yardage. With 5 yards or less to go for a first down, he went 6-of-7 for 51 yards and six conversions, including a touchdown. 9. Tom Savage HOU 23/36 260 0 0 0 95 96 -1 JAC 10. Cam Newton CAR 22/37 300 2 0 2 68 77 -10 WAS 11. Russell Wilson SEA 19/26 229 3 1 2 57 60 -3 LARM 12. Tom Brady NE 16/32 188 0 0 2 48 48 0 DEN Brady's first seven dropbacks resulted in six incompletions and a fumble-sack. Somehow the game was still tied at 3 at that point, and from there Brady played much better. He was second-worst in first-quarter DYAR this week, but ninth-best after that. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 13. Matthew Stafford DET 24/39 273 0 1 1 45 44 1 NYG Stafford had almost no luck in scoring range. Inside the Giants' 30 he went 3-of-8 for 9 yards with an interception and a sack. His only first down came on a 6-yard DPI. 14. Philip Rivers SD 17/30 206 2 1 3 42 42 0 OAK Each of Rivers' first six dropbacks of the second half resulted in a completion for a first down, gaining 74 total yards in the process. But Rivers wouldn't pick up any first downs after that, going 2-of-6 for 9 yards with an interception and two sacks. 15. Eli Manning NYG 20/28 201 2 0 2 40 40 0 DET 16. Kirk Cousins WAS 32/47 315 0 1 1 22 15 7 CAR 17. Tyrod Taylor BUF 17/24 174 1 0 1 20 30 -10 CLE The Bills got the ball with about eight minutes left in the third quarter, up 17-10 in what was still anyone's game. From that point forward, Taylor went 7-of-7 for 69 yards, with five first downs. 18. Aaron Rodgers GB 19/30 252 0 0 4 19 22 -3 CHI 19. Andy Dalton CIN 16/27 157 0 1 1 15 7 8 PIT The Bengals were ahead 20-9 at halftime in this game, then still led 20-12 after the Steelers kicked a field goal on the first drive of the second half. From that point forward, Dalton went 6-of-11 for just 41 yards and only two first downs, with a sack. 20. Marcus Mariota TEN 19/32 241 0 1 1 14 14 0 KC 21. Robert Griffin CLE 17/28 196 0 0 5 0 -8 8 BUF Griffin and the Browns hardly even tried to test the Bills deep until this game was out of reach. Only one of his first-half passes traveled more than 7 yards past the line of scrimmage: a 59-yard bomb to Corey Coleman on the last play of the half. Then he threw only three deep passes in the second half, even though the Browns were down by at least 14 points the entire time. 22. Joe Flacco BAL 16/29 206 2 1 3 -4 -4 0 PHI Flacco was Griffin in reverse. He threw only four deep passes, all in the first half. Three were incomplete; the fourth was a 34-yard touchdown to Steve Smith. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 23. Colin Kaepernick SF 20/33 183 2 0 2 -7 -5 -2 ATL Kaepernick's last pass of the first half was a 5-yard touchdown to Rod Streater. He wouldn't pick up another first down until the middle of the fourth quarter. In between, he went 3-of-9 for 19 yards with a sack. 24. Derek Carr OAK 19/30 213 1 1 2 -7 -13 6 SD 25. Case Keenum LARM 5/9 32 0 0 0 -16 -16 0 SEA All of Keenum's dropbacks came with Los Angeles down by 21 points in the fourth quarter. His only first down was a 16-yard completion to Brian Quick on second-and-5. 26. Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 5/10 31 0 1 0 -22 -20 -2 MIA All of Keenum's Fitzpatrick's dropbacks came with Los Angeles the Jets down by 21 20 or more points in the fourth quarter. His only first down was a 16-yard 13-yard completion to Brian Quick Bilal Powell on second-and-5 first-and-10. 27. Jameis Winston TB 17/35 247 2 3 4 -50 -54 4 DAL Winston's last pass of the third quarter was a 10-yard touchdown to Cameron Brate that put Tampa Bay ahead 20-17. In the fourth quarter, he went 3-of-12 for 19 yards with one first down, two interceptions, and three sacks, and the Bucs lost 26-20. Winston was sixth among all quarterbacks through three quarters this week, but last by a huge margin in the fourth. 28. Blake Bortles JAC 12/28 92 0 1 2 -71 -67 -5 HOU Apparently Bortles' magic garbage time powers do not activate when the Jaguars are actually ahead. When Bortles first got the ball in the fourth quarter, the Jaguars were up 20-11. Fifteen minutes later, he had gone 2-of-9 for 17 yards with as many first downs (one) as interceptions, and the Jaguars had lost 21-20. These are the kinds of performances that get coaches fired. 29. Jared Goff LARM 13/25 135 0 0 4 -73 -73 0 SEA The new kickoff rules this year mean that teams will start a lot of drives at their own 25. Within his own 25, Goff went 4-of-8 for 23 yards with one first down and three sacks. 30. Alex Smith KC 15/28 163 0 1 1 -76 -66 -10 TEN 31. Carson Wentz PHI 22/42 170 0 1 1 -77 -92 15 BAL Red zone passing: 2-of-9 for 8 yards and no first downs. (He did pick up a first down on a 13-yard DPI.) So of course, on a potential game-winning two-pointer, they passed and failed. 32. Sam Bradford MIN 32/42 291 0 1 5 -84 -84 0 IND Third/fourth downs: 5-of-9 for 21 yards with three conversions and a sack. 33. Brock Osweiler HOU 6/11 48 0 2 0 -91 -91 0 JAC Osweiler only threw two passes that traveled more than 8 yards downfield. Both were intercepted. 34. Bryce Petty NYJ 20/36 235 1 2 3 -100 -100 0 MIA In the third quarter, Petty went 4-of-10 for 15 yards with no first downs and a sack. 35. Trevor Siemian DEN 26/40 282 0 1 4 -104 -105 1 NE Almost all of Siemian's negative value came on third and fourth downs, where he went 6-of-12 for 51 yards with one interception, one sack, and only two conversions.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Ryan Mathews PHI 20 128 1 1/1 5 0 80 79 1 BAL One of the best games you'll ever see by a running back who had a fumble. But Mathews had six 10-yard runs and eight first downs against Baltimore's mighty run defense. The Ravens have now given up 29 10-yard runs on the year. Mathews has 20 percent of them. 2. LeSean McCoy BUF 19 153 2 3/3 16 0 64 65 -1 CLE McCoy's success rate against Cleveland was a mind-boggling 79 percent. He had ten total first downs, and five runs that gained at least 10 yards (including 20- and 24-yarders), while getting hit for no gain just once. 3. Devonta Freeman ATL 20 139 3 2/2 16 0 52 37 15 SF Freeman had a fumble too. He also had 11 runs of 6 yards or more, including gains of 20 and 34 yards, and eight first downs. 4. Jordan Howard CHI 17 90 1 4/4 23 0 51 42 9 GB Howard's five first downs on the ground -- including gains of 11, 13, and 13 yards -- all came in the second half. He was hit for no gain just once. He added another first down as a receiver. 5. Derrick Henry TEN 9 58 2 0/0 0 0 46 46 0 KC Henry's success rate against Kansas City was 89 percent. He had six first downs in only nine carries, including gains of 11, 14, and 15 yards.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Ryan Mathews PHI 20 128 1 1/1 5 0 80 79 1 BAL 2. LeSean McCoy BUF 19 153 2 3/3 16 0 64 65 -1 CLE 3. Ty Montgomery GB 16 162 2 2/3 1 0 39 51 -11 CHI Montgomery ran for seven first downs against Chicago, including gains of 13, 26, 36, and 61 yards. 4. Derrick Henry TEN 9 58 2 0/0 0 0 46 46 0 KC 5. Jordan Howard CHI 17 90 1 4/4 23 0 51 42 9 GB

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Kenneth Farrow SD 15 39 0 2/3 14 0 -60 -37 -23 OAK Odds are most of you have never heard of Kenneth Farrow until right now. But with Melvin Gordon out with a hip injury and Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver, and even quasi-runner Dexter McCluster all on IR, the Chargers have been forced to use the undrafted rookie out of Houston as their primary runner. Against Oakland, Farrow only ran for one first down, his longest carry gained only 6 yards, and he had a fumble. He also had a fumble on one of his two catches.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. LeGarrette Blount NE 17 31 1 0/0 0 0 -41 -41 0 DEN Blount's 1-yard touchdown against Denver was his only first down on the day. His longest run gained only 5 yards, and he was hit for no gain or a loss four times. He did this against a Denver defense that has been pretty terrible against the run this season.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR Opp 1. Brandin Cooks NO 7 8 186 26.6 2 92 ARI Cooks had touchdowns of 65 and 45 yards against Arizona, plus four other first downs. 2. Brandon LaFell CIN 7 9 91 13.0 0 64 PIT On top of his nine catches, LaFell's longest play was a 39-yard DPI. He had seven first downs on the day. 3. Tyler Lockett SEA 7 8 130 18.6 1 54 LARM Lockett had a 57-yard touchdown against the Rams, plus a 29-yarder and two other first downs. 4. Jarvis Landry MIA 3 4 108 36.0 1 43 NYJ In his career, Landry is averaging 6.0 catches and 64.0 yards per game. He only caught three passes against the Jets, but the longest -- a 66-yard touchdown -- eclipsed his career average for yards by itself. 5. Aldrick Robinson ATL 4 5 111 27.8 0 40 SF All of Robinson's catches produced first downs, including gains of 20, 21, and 59 yards.