mbpd= Millions of barrels per day

Gb= Billions of barrels (10 9 )

Tb= Trillions of barrels (10 12 )

NGPL= Natural Gas Plant Liquids

CO= Crude Oil + lease condensate

NGL= Natural Gas Liquids (lease condensate + NGPL)

URR= Ultimate Recoverable Resource

EIA Last Update (November)

Data sources for the production numbers:

Production data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (Crude oil + NGL).

EIA data (monthly and annual productions up to November 2006) for crude oil and lease condensate (noted CO) on which I added the NGPL production (noted CO+NGL).

The All liquids peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production value in 2006 (11 months) is down from 2005 for all the categories except for the total liquids which now equals 2005 production. The peak date for Crude Oil + Cond. is May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd (see Table I below).



Fig 1.- World production (EIA data). Blue lines and pentagrams are indicating monthly maximum. Monthly data for CO from the EIA. Annual data for NGPL and Other Liquids from 1980 to 2001 have been upsampled to get monthly estimates. Click to Enlarge.

Category Nov 2006 Nov 2005 12 MA1 2006 (11 Months) 2005 (11 Months) Share Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids 84.62 84.66 84.60 84.59 84.58 100.00% 2006-07 85.47 Crude Oil + NGL 81.45 81.63 81.42 81.40 81.43 96.25% 2005-05 82.08 Other Liquids 3.17 3.02 3.18 3.19 3.15 3.75% 2006-08 3.54 NGPL 8.04 7.52 7.88 7.92 7.86 9.50% 2005-02 8.05 Crude Oil + Condensate 73.41 74.11 73.54 73.48 73.57 86.75% 2005-05 74.15 Table I - Production estimate (in millions of barrels per day (mbpd)) for November 2006 taken from the EIA website (International Petroleum Monthly). 1Moving Average on the last 12 months.

Revision Pattern



Fig 2.- Cumulative changes in production numbers since first estimates are issued for each month. The red line indicates the average revision for the entire year. Click to Enlarge.



Fig 3.- Share of each liquid category to the total liquid production. Click to Enlarge.



Fig 4.- World oil production (Crude oil + NGL) and various forecasts (1940-2050). The light gray box gives the particular area where the Figures below are zooming in. Click to Enlarge.

Business as Usual



Fig 5.- Production forecasts assuming no visible peak. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Bottom-Up Analysis



Fig 6.- Forecasts by PeakOilers based on bottom-up methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Curve Fitting



Fig 7.- Forecasts by PeakOilers using curve fitting methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

Production Growth



Fig 8.- Year-on-Year production growth. Click to Enlarge.

The cumulative changes in production estimates are shown on Figure 2 . The 2005 annual production for all liquids has been revised up by 0.5 mbpd since the first estimate has been issued. NGPL estimates increased by 0.25 mbpd in average. CO production has been revised down for the two first quarters of 2006.The share of CO is now only 86.75% of the total liquid production.The following results are based on a linear or non-linear fit of a parametric curve (most often a Logistic curve) directly on the observed production profile:The chart below gives the year-on-year production growth (or decline) for each month. Growth has been weak (below 1%) most of the year but went back in positive territory since last July.





Forecast 2005 2006 2007 2010 2015 Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids Observed (EIA) 84.56 84.59 NA NA NA 2006-07 85.47 Koppelaar (2005) 84.06 85.78 86.61 89.21 87.98 >2011 >89.58 EIA (IEO, 2006) 82.70 84.50 86.37 91.60 98.30 >2030 >118.00 IEA (WEO, 2006) 83.60 85.10 86.62 91.30 99.30 >2030 >116.30 IEA (WEO, 2005) 84.00 85.85 87.64 92.50 99.11 >2030 >115.40 IEA (WEO, 2004) 82.06 83.74 85.41 90.40 98.69 >2030 >121.30 CERA1 (2006) 87.77 89.52 91.62 97.24 104.54 >2035 >130.00 Lahèrrere (2006) 83.59 84.82 85.96 88.93 92.27 2018 92.99 Lahèrrere (2005) 83.59 84.47 85.23 86.96 87.77 2014 87.84 Smith (2006) 85.19 87.77 90.88 98.94 98.56 2012-05 99.83 Crude Oil + NGL Observed (EIA) 81.45 81.40 NA NA NA 2005-05 82.08 IEA (WEO, 2006) 80.10 81.38 82.67 86.50 92.50 >2030 >104.90 ASPO-71 80.00 81.90 84.48 90.00 85.00 2010 90.00 ASPO-58 81.00 82.03 83.10 85.00 79.18 2010 85.00 ASPO-45 81.00 80.95 80.80 80.00 73.77 2005 81.00 Koppelaar (2006) 81.76 82.31 83.68 91.00 NA >2010 >91.00 Bakhtiari (2003) 80.24 80.89 80.89 77.64 69.51 2006 80.89 Skrebowski (2006) 80.90 81.42 82.59 87.32 NA >2010 >87.92 Smith (2006) 80.53 82.81 85.45 91.95 88.60 2011-02 92.31 Staniford (High) 77.45 77.92 78.31 79.01 78.51 2011-10 79.08 Staniford (Med) 75.81 75.94 75.97 75.52 73.00 2007-05 75.98 Staniford (Low) 70.46 70.13 69.71 67.92 63.40 2002-07 70.88 Loglets 81.12 82.14 83.02 84.65 83.26 2012-01 84.80 GBM (2003) 76.06 76.27 76.33 75.30 67.79 2007-05 76.34 Shock Model (2006) 80.76 80.43 80.01 78.27 73.74 2003 81.17 Constant barrels/capita 78.81 79.73 80.66 83.42 88.01 2050 110.64 Crude Oil + Lease Condensate Observed (EIA) 73.65 73.48 NA NA NA 2005-05 74.15 IEA (WEO, 2006) 70.80 71.78 72.77 75.70 80.30 >2030 >89.10 CERA1 (2006) 76.49 76.89 78.60 82.29 83.83 2038 97.58 ASPO-71 73.10 74.45 75.87 78.00 72.00 2010 78.00 ASPO-58 73.00 73.80 74.65 76.00 69.50 2010 76.00 ASPO-58 72.80 72.56 72.25 71.00 63.55 2005 72.80 Deffeyes (2004) 69.81 69.81 69.71 68.90 65.88 2005-12 69.82 Table II. Summary of all the forecasts (figures are in mbpd) as well as the last EIA estimates.1Productive capacities.

Next update in March.

Previous Update:

Khebab@theoildrum.com