SpaceX announced that it had won two big US Air Force launch contracts Wednesday. If successful, the two demonstrations would help them qualify to compete for Air Force business against launch provider ULA (United Launch Alliance), which currently has a stranglehold on the largest Air Force launches.

The first launch, planned for a Falcon 9, will send up the long-awaited NASA DSCOVR satellite to a distant point between the Sun and the Earth, where it can look at the Earth with the Sun behind it. The second, a Falcon Heavy launch, will put up several satellites and a 5 metric ton ballast, in an effort to demonstrate the Falcon 9 Heavy for the Air Force. Both contracts fall under the Air Force's OSP-3 (Orbital/Suborbital) program, an Air Force program specifically designed to bringing in new launch companies.

"GoreSat" rises from storage

DSCOVR, NASA's Deep Space Climate Observatory, has been in deep storage since 2001, when it was imprisoned by the incoming Bush Administration. DSCOVR is designed to measure the Earth's albedo by tracking sunlight reflected back from the Earth from a distant vantage point. Former Vice-President Al Gore suggested that a video camera be installed on the satellite, with the hope that the constant video feed of the distant Earth would provide the same kind of "Blue Marble" perspective that the first pictures from Apollo did. The original Blue Marble picture is probably the most-circulated picture in human history, and is widely credited with contributing to the start of the modern ecology movement.

Climate skeptics quickly labeled the satellite "GoreSat", and the Bush Administration cancelled its scheduled launch from Shuttle Columbia in 2003. The satellite stayed in storage until November 2008, when, shortly after Barack Obama's election, it was hauled back out and began undergoing recertification. Originally known as "Triana", the satellite was renamed DSCOVR, and has now gained both a 2014 launch contract as an Air Force test payload and an additional mission: serve as a sentry for solar storms. As of this week, DSCOVR has a contract aboard a Falcon 9 rocket to Earth/Sun L1, about 1.5 million kilometers sunward.

The Air Force's largest rocket ever

Shortly after the first Dragon berthing, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk began speaking aggressively about going after Air Force EELV (Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle) business. The Air Force's current largest rocket, the ULA Delta 4, can lift 23 metric tons to low Earth orbit. SpaceX's upcoming Falcon Heavy, which combines 28 engines from 3 Falcon 9 rockets, is calculated to lift 53 metric tons.

The Heavy is slated for a first flight some time in 2013. If successful, it could vie for the heaviest Air Force payloads while providing much lower prices. The 2015 Air Force demo flight has an orbital latitude (24 degrees) that suggests that it will be launched from Florida. SpaceX does not currently have a launch facility in Florida large enough for the Falcon Heavy, although they have been in negotiations with NASA over refurbishing the storied Launch Pad 39A, which handled the Apollo launches. The Air Force contract implies a 3-year deadline for SpaceX to get a capable launch pad ready, either at Kennedy or some other location.

According to the mission requirements, the Falcon Heavy must carry its payload up to an orbit of 720 km and deploy a COSMIC-2 weather- and atmospheric-monitoring satellite, up to six auxiliary payloads (probably microsats), and up to eight P-POD CubeSat deployers. The rocket should then restart and continue all the way up to a 6,000 x 12,000 km orbit and deploy the ballast, more science experiments and more microsats. After coasting for a few hours, it needs to restart again, with all of these activities carefully monitored from below.

If SpaceX passes this test, they will they be allowed to bid for 14 of the 50 projected Air Force launches in the rest of the decade. The first of these launches would begin no earlier than 2017.

Launch market disruption

The decision was announced on Tuesday by Air Force Lt. Gen. Ellen Pawlikowski. At the AIAA Space 2012 Conference, she had spoken very candidly regarding the Air Force's search for ways to lower its launch costs. It appears that the Air Force has taken a big step toward increasing competition for Air Force launches.

That's something that ULA would probably like to forestall as long as possible. In answer to SpaceX's contract wins, ULA has emphasized their excellent reliability thus far. Although SpaceX has well over 40 launches booked over the next several years, they'll have their work cut out for them as they try to fulfill the contracts. According to the launch manifest posted on the SpaceX website, the company will need to launch at least a half-dozen rockets next year, and even more in years following, working their way up toward a launch every month.

ULA has already hit that pace with no losses, setting a high standard for SpaceX to match.

For now, ULA is in good shape, since it has already won a block buy of the other 36 launches that will cover the Air Force's needs for several years. Toward the end of the decade, should SpaceX succeed, ULA will be forced to find a way to lower its prices, precisely what Lt. Gen. Pawlikowski would like to achieve.