Columbus Crew SC returns from a bye week to face New York City FC at MAPFRE Stadium on Saturday night (7:30 PM ET). It marks the second of three meetings between the two sides in 2016 and fifth all-time since NYCFC joined the league last year.

Heading into this matchup, both teams are in unexpected spots in the MLS standings. For the visitors, that’s certainly a good thing. Despite two high profile blowout losses to their Tri-State rival New York Red Bulls, the Citizens currently sit at the top of the Eastern Conference.

In Crew SC’s case, it’s a different story altogether. A year removed from hosting MLS Cup, the Black and Gold languish second from bottom in both the East and overall league table. Having already played 21 games, the club finds itself with just 19 points and seven points out of a playoff spot.

What’s more alarming for Columbus is the recent history of the league. Since MLS went to a 34-game schedule in 2011, the average minimum number of points needed to qualify for the postseason out of the East has been 49.2 points. That means Crew SC would need at least 30 more to feel safe.

The club essentially needs to go 10-3-0 or 9-1-3 to match that threshold. With seven of their last 13 on the road, that’s easier said than done. Fortunately, eight of those games are against teams in the same predicament as Crew SC: namely, they’re currently out of the playoffs.

Columbus Crew SC-NYCFC: Similar Aesthetics, Different Execution in 2016

But first up is a clash against an NYCFC club riding high at the top of the East. Head coach Patrick Vieira has implemented a possession-oriented style that, in many ways, is similar to the tactical approach championed by Crew SC boss Gregg Berhalter. It shows in the fact that both teams are top four league wide in possession percentage.

Possession With Purpose

The on-field ethos of these sides is heavily focused on building out of the back. This entails having players who are supremely comfortable with the ball at their feet and effectively distributing it further up the pitch. When superbly executed, it can lead to some aesthetically pleasing football.

¡Villa Maravilla! El mejor estilo del @Guaje7Villa para continuar su candidatura a MVP. #MTLvNYC 0-1 ?https://t.co/BVrQLUbN6t — Fútbol MLS (@futbolMLS) July 17, 2016

That’s a four pass, ten touch sequence which covered virtually three-quarters of the field and culminated in a clinical finish from golden boot favorite David Villa. Of course, his physicality in out-muscling Victor Cabrera off the ball also played a part. That skill set is a good thing for a center forward to have in his repertoire, but not all players at the position have it.

It’s something Crew SC no longer possesses with the departure of Kei Kamara. One could argue he’s about as good as it gets in the league when it comes to sheer physicality from your number nine. The club’s new target forward Ola Kamara is cut from a different mold in terms of how he finds the net.

But that’s not to say the Black and Gold are hindered in buildup with the latter Kamara. His off-the-ball movement and ability to find space in the box is a highly valued asset within the framework of how Crew SC plays. His first ever goal for the club was a perfect example.

Ola would add two more that game to register the first hat trick for a Crew SC player in 12 years. And in his 11 starts for the club thus far, he’s tallied ten goals. That puts him in a tie for seventh in MLS with Sporting KC‘s Dom Dwyer and the Portland Timbers Diego Valeri.

Rendering Possession Ineffective

So why has Crew SC scored just 26 goals in 2016 compared to NYCFC’s 40? Why is Columbus converting less than 12 percent of their chances created into goals while their weekend opponents are doing so at a nearly 17 percent pop? The answer partly lies in an inability to break down compact defenses.

One of the most consistent criticisms of Berhalter’s tactics this year is predictability. He’s strolled out the same 4-2-3-1 shape in every regular season game for the past two seasons. Couple that with the team’s penchant for holding onto the ball and most opposing teams have been prompted to retreat into a defensive shell.

Factor in anemic play from the attacking wingers and it’s a perfect storm for a scoring slump. Despite Crew SC leading the league in possession, they’re tied for 15th in goals scored. Until players such as Ethan Finlay, Justin Meram and Cedrick Mabwati can take some of the goal-scoring burden off Kamara, it’s going to be a struggle to reverse this funk in the final third.

Frank Lampard: NYCFC’s X-Factor

A center forward can’t do all the scoring himself if a team is going to be successful. The above discussion about Crew SC’s struggles is proof. In NYCFC’s case, Villa’s gotten help from perhaps the most unlikely of sources in Frank Lampard. The English midfielder has quickly gone from pariah in the eyes of fans to unsung hero.

It’s a far cry from when he first saw the pitch at the tail end of NYC’s historic 7-0 thrashing at the hands of the Red Bulls on May 21st. Lampard came on in the 75th minute that day to a cascade of boos from the Yankee Stadium faithful. Much of the talk was centered on the possibility of him being the worst designated player signing in MLS history.

Less than three months later and the narrative is a complete 360. Lampard has made nine starts since gradually returning from a calf injury. In that time, he’s tallied eight goals to become the team’s second leading scorer behind Villa. His 0.92 goals per 90 has, ironically enough, recently overtaken Ola Kamara’s 0.84 for best in the league among players who’ve appeared in at least 750 minutes of game action.

Suddenly, all three of NYCFC’s big name DPs in Lampard, Villa and Andrea Pirlo are making their presence felt. Vieira, for the most part, has figured out how to put the pieces together in his 4-3-3 setup. But for him as well as Berhalter, it’s the back four and particularly central defense that remains problematic.

Breaking “Build from the Back” with Pressure

Despite NYCFC having the most points among Eastern Conference teams, they’re goal difference is 0. That’s what happens when you’re tied for the league lead in goals for but are dead last in goals against. It’s tempting to say “that’s so MLS” but, in reality, it underscores the issues on the back line that have dogged the team all year.

Crew SC is no different. The Black and Gold have conceded 35 goals so far in 2016 which is sixth worst in the league. A long-term injury to Gaston Sauro has left the club short-handed in central defense. They’ve attempted to address this by signing Norwegian Nicolai Næss in the summer transfer window.

But tactically, one of the best ways to disrupt possession teams like Crew SC and NYCFC is through high pressure. It’s a fairly straight-forward concept. Instead of letting teams do their thing with the ball, make them uncomfortable. Try to win the ball back as soon as you lose it. It’s a hallmark of the way the Red Bulls play under Jesse Marsch.

Notice how Bradley Wright-Phillips forces NYCFC center back Frederic Brillant into an errant pass. It falls right to winger Mike Grella who, after some fantastic individual flair, feeds it into the box. From there, BWP makes no mistake heading it past goalkeeper Josh Saunders.

Crew SC has also shown themselves to be vulnerable to pressure. Among the more prominent examples was in their 3-1 loss to the New England Revolution on July 9th.

Watch Lee Nguyen push up towards Wil Trapp which forces a wayward back pass. Teal Bunbury beats Chad Barson to the ball and suddenly a quick counter-attack is on. A combination of frantic emergency defending and, frankly, a little bit of luck, prevents a goal for the Revs.

Conclusion

Heading into Saturday’s clash, it’s clear these two clubs are similar in certain respects. Both coaches are cut from the same cloth so to speak in terms of tactical philosophy. Both teams have had myriad defensive issues all season. Where it differs is in execution in the attacking third. NYCFC have clearly been the better team in that regard.

What this game will inevitably come down to is which team can limit defensive miscues. If Columbus can force NYC into a few while limiting them on their end of the field, they can send the Eastern Conference leaders back to the Bronx with a defeat. But it will also entail executing better around the opposition’s net.

If Crew SC wants to salvage their season, a result this weekend is a must. The club has three of their next four at home and getting three points instead of one out of them will be crucial. Ultimately, it could prove the difference between getting back into the playoff hunt and being left out altogether.

Video embeds from MLSSoccer.com.

Photo courtesy of Columbus Crew SC Communications.