Scientists are warning that even if coronavirus transmissions dip as we head into the spring and summer, such a reduction shouldn't be mistaken for an end to the outbreak.

Instead a reduction of cases during the summer should be seen as a precious opportunity to prepare for next winter, when a new model suggests the virus could infect 100 times more people.

In a paper currently undergoing peer-review, research scientists from universities in Basel and Stockholm have modelled the effects of seasonal variation on COVID-19 - the prevalent strain of coronavirus - transmission rates.

Their model suggests we are currently experiencing a "small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere" which will be followed by "a larger peak in winter 2020-21".

Based on other coronaviruses, the researchers believe the transmission rate will indeed drop as we head into spring and summer but then rise again, infecting as many as a 100 million people in total.


Dr Emma Hodcroft, one of the paper's co-authors, told Sky News it was "hard to have exact numbers" but said the model was "not an unreasonable scenario".

She added that she "wouldn't focus on absolute numbers" but stressed the "general message that there could be substantially more cases if there is a seasonal affect".

The figure came with "a very important caveat", she explained: "These predictions are ones we've made based on assumptions about how seasonality affects transmission, based on how it is known to affect other coronaviruses."

Crucially, it is not yet clear how the new coronavirus will be affected by the change in season. There is a chance that we could be experiencing the peak of the virus transmission now, although this is not what is seen in other coronaviruses.

Dr Richard Neher is the lead author of the paper, currently titled Potential Impact of Seasonal Forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic.

"The main takeaway is, if seasonality does decrease in the summer time, then we should be cautious still because we could still see a bigger peak in winter," Dr Hodcroft said.

"If we aren't aware of this possibility then we could be caught off guard when winter comes again."

After this peak the model suggests that the virus could become a regular, seasonal occurrence, similar to the flu.

Six people have now died in the UK after testing positive for the virus, NHS England confirmed on Tuesday.

Globally, there are more than 116,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 4,000 deaths.