There is no doubt that projections can play a big role in putting together pre-draft lists as well as weekly starting lineups. There is also no doubt that there are numerous mathematical formulas, algorithms, and analytical theories that lead to coming up with projections. They can vary from site to site and generally it’s a good idea to find projections that best align with your league’s scoring format.

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That being said I am not a mathematician nor do I play one on television or on the internet. This article will not be A Beautiful Mind breakdown filled with equations to help owners come up with their own particular projections. There are smarter folks than me doing that leg work and bless them for it.

This piece is based on my 13 years of playing in IDP formats as well as the last seven years writing about this wonderful form of fantasy football. I’ll try to break down things as simply as possible when chasing down tackle totals for linebackers (LB), defensive linemen (DL), and defensive backs (DB). Put away the calculators (do folks still use them?) and let’s take a look at some easy ways to target tackle production in IDP formats.

Tackles by Position

Target Linebackers

The simplest jumping off point when chasing tackle production is understanding which position historically amasses the most tackles on a yearly basis. It is hands down the LB position and, more importantly, the inside or off the ball LBs. In a 3-4 defense, the right inside and left inside LBs are the tackle producers while the ‘weak side’ and ‘middle’ LBs in a 4-3 scheme are the players to covet.

In general, NFL defenses, regardless of scheme, are geared toward forcing running plays inside to avoid a running back getting around the edge for a big gain. The defensive ends are tasked with setting the edge while defensive tackles take on as many blockers as possible to free up the LBs to make the tackle. Last season there were 32 LBs that had 100-plus total tackles. From a fantasy perspective, consider that eight of the top-10 LBs in total tackles finished in the top 10 in most balanced scoring systems. It’s important to keep in mind that it’s three-down LBs that we covet here and snap counts can easily be found to help in determining every-down players.

Safeties are the way to go in the secondary

Next up in tackle production would be DBs and, more specifically, the safety position. With defenses lining up in sub packages on well over 50% of the defensive snaps more and more strong safeties are playing ‘in the box,’ which is within eight yards of the line of scrimmage. In 2018, there were eight DBs that put up 100-plus total tackles and all were safeties. In fact, the top-10 DBs last season in total tackles played the safety position. Cornerbacks are obviously dropping in coverage and that caps their tackle production opportunities.

Defensive line checks in third

The DL position is the least productive from a total tackle standpoint for many of the reasons stated above. While they play a crucial role in stopping the run by setting the edge and occupying blockers, DL simply don’t get the tackle opportunities to put up big totals. Last season, there was no DL that reached triple digits in total tackles and 65-75 in a season would be the ceiling for the position.

Constructing IDP pre-draft rankings

Now that we’ve established a pecking order in terms of how positions stack up in amassing tackles, let’s look at some tips for setting up our pre-draft rankings. Once again keeping things simple is advisable. When setting up IDP draft boards from a total tackle perspective it can be helpful to simply look back at the previous season and which offenses were fantasy-friendly in handing out tackle opportunities.

Target running teams and those that run a lot of plays

It’s simply a case of chasing the offenses that produced the most offensive plays and more importantly ran the ball the most times. Last season, the top-five offenses in total plays were Baltimore, New England, Indianapolis, Los Angeles Rams, and Pittsburgh. The top-five teams in terms of rushing plays were Baltimore, Seattle, New England (surprise!), Houston, and New Orleans. While each NFL season is an entity in and of itself, there are trends to glean information from. As long as the coaching staffs do not turn over, which they have not with any of these teams, then these are offenses to draft IDP options that play against them. When deciding where to rank players that have similar totals in terms of tackle production in the past, I look to rank the player who is in the division of one of these offenses a bit higher, as they will have two games a season against the offenses.

Avoid teams that don’t run a lot of plays

On the flipside of things, let’s look at the bottom-five teams in terms of total offensive plays ran in 2018. Los Angles Chargers (surprise!), Cincinnati, Tennessee, Arizona, and Miami. Three of the teams have new coaching staffs and all of these offenses failed to reach 1,000 total offensive snaps. I’ll err on the side of moving players that face these offenses twice a season down a bit. Remember, keep it simple.

Setting your weekly lineup

Just as looking at the matchups against top offenses helps to determine pre-draft lists, it’s vital to use matchups when setting weekly lineups. Offensive identities can change throughout the season and monitoring their production is a must. Once again, it’s advisable to look at teams that run the ball more, as there are obviously more tackle opportunities. A great example of how important it is to closely monitor a team’s offense is the 2018 Baltimore Ravens.

Through the first nine games of the season with Joe Flacco at quarterback, the Ravens ran the ball an average of 25 times per game. Once Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback, the Ravens averaged a whopping 45 rushing attempts per game from Weeks 11-17. Many IDP fantasy championships were won by savvy owners that started their defenders lining up against the Ravens down the stretch last season. While it’s highly unlikely Baltimore averages 45 rushing attempts over the course of the whole season, they will remain a run-heavy offense with Jackson at quarterback. Yes, I like the idea of selecting linebackers from Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh heading into the season. Keep. It. Simple.

Know your IDP scoring format

Finally, there is an often overlooked angle in IDP formats that directly effects tackle production. Offensive scoring systems are pretty cut and dry with 10 yards rushing/receiving equaling one point and one reception equaling a point in point per reception (PPR) leagues. The same cannot be said in IDP scoring as each home team has a staff that decides if a tackle is solo or if there is an assisted tackle on the play as well. It is subjective and varies from stadium to stadium. Some staffs that are friendlier from a total tackle perspective are the New York Giants, Tennessee, and Buffalo. A few of the stingier staffs in doling out nice tackle numbers are the New York Jets, Minnesota, and Miami.

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Walton Spurlin is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Walton, check out his archive and follow him @waltonspurlin.