After a prolonged period of wet weather, the Houston region will see a moderate reprieve as we break from a pattern of widespread, daily rainfall. (Showers aren’t going away entirely, however). It is during this break that we will look for the region’s first real fall cold front. We’re overdue, now—way overdue. As you may recall, we’ve made the arbitrary decision to define this front as the first night after September 1 with an overnight low temperature of 65 degrees or lower at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

The average date for this first front is Sept. 18—two weeks ago—but there is a wide range of variability. For example, it is not unheard of for the first front to arrive in October. It happens about once every 10 years, on average. However, it is rare to get too deep into October without a cold front, and the latest Houston has waited since at least 1889 is October 13th. I’m afraid we’re in danger of setting this record this year.

Per the ensembles of the GFS and European forecast models, the region’s first cold front is unlikely to arrive in Houston this year any time before a time period between Oct. 11 and Oct. 15—nine or 10 days from now. Ughhhhhh.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As higher pressures move into the region, our weather pattern will turn moderately warmer, with high temperatures likely in the upper 80s. Temperatures will ultimately depend upon the amount of sunshine this afternoon, as we expect partly sunny skies. Rain chances will fall back into the 30 percent range, with showers most likely during the late morning and afternoon hours along with daytime heating. Lows in the mid-70s.

Thursday and Friday

The pattern more or less continues, although as the influence of high pressure backs off, we may see slightly more rain coverage toward the end of the work week. There’s still no signal for heavy rainfall, so the 40 to 50 percent of the region that does see rain will likely only see tenths of an inch, rather than inches. Highs, again, should be in the mid-80s, with lows in the mid-70s.

Saturday, Sunday, and early next week

With no real fronts on the horizon to clear out this muggy weather, for now we expect it to carry into the weekend and early next week. We expect a healthy chance of rain, especially on Sunday and Monday, but for now there’s nothing to indicate anything too extreme. We’ll try to have a more dialed in weekend forecast tomorrow, but for now there’s not a whole lot of clarity beyond these generalities.

In terms of rainfall, overall, the region may see between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of rain through next Monday, with higher localized totals.