The author writes that Ron Paul seems unnervingly unanxious about winning the nomination. The political gospel of Ron Paul

What are the odds of Texas Rep. Ron Paul winning the Republican nomination? At this writing, 4.5 percent, according to Intrade, the wagers site for political gamblers the world over. Those are long odds with a large payout attached. One dollar bet now would yield more than $20 in the event that Paul manages to secure his party’s blessing to challenge Barack Obama for the keys to the White House.

The smart money now is on Mitt Romney. Intrade gives him a 70.6 percent chance to win the nomination, followed by Newt Gingrich (12.2 percent), Paul, Herman Cain (3 percent). Once-popular Texas Gov. Rick Perry comes in at an embarrassingly barrel-scraping 2.5 percent. There’s one more candidate, but I can’t remember her name.


Critics question the predictive power of Intrade and similar ventures. Anyone can place a bet, they point out. Bettors are not necessarily voters. They need no political experience or expertise to put their money down. All true, yet they miss that aspiring presidential politicians themselves can be the greatest gamblers of them all.

Politicians often gamble money by plowing their own funds into their campaigns. The Clintons spent more than $10 million of their personal funds on Hillary’s failed 2008 bid. Mitt Romney’s business acumen made him a man of great wealth. He spent $42 million of his own money in 2008 when he lost in the primary to John McCain.

They risk other things by running for president, including their current offices, business arrangements and podiums. Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee had many reasons to sit out these primaries, to be sure. Pretty high on the list had to be that it would disrupt their Fox News contracts and speaking gigs. Rick Perry’s dismal performance so far is making many Texas donors and potential political rivals think twice. Rep. Michele Bachmann — that’s the name! — may find it tough to defend her Minnesota House seat.

Defending his seat is something Ron Paul isn’t sweating because he’s decided to go all in. In July, Paul announced that he would not seek reelection to a House seat that he’s held since 1996, and three terms before that. He wanted to focus on his presidential campaign and either go to the White House or go home.

The press is having a hard time wrapping its head around Paul’s candidacy. Jon Stewart famously mocked several television talking heads who did their best to ignore his second-place finish in the Ames Straw Poll. Paul’s performance in the Republican debates this time has been much better than the last go-round. It might be a stretch to say he’s starting to look more presidential, except when you stack him up against all the other candidates for the GOP nomination.

Paul’s political career is a long list of crazy bets and large payouts. It took three successive elections until he managed to nail down a relatively safe Republican seat, and he threw that away to challenge Phil Gramm for the GOP’s Senate nomination.

When Republicans were trying to sell George H.W. Bush as the third term of Ronald Reagan, Paul stood against him as the Libertarian nominee for the presidency. Paul’s return to Congress came over the loud objection of a Republican Party apparatus, which wanted to anoint a Democratic Party switcher. In 2003, with George W. Bush still basking among sun god-like approval ratings, Paul came out swinging against the Iraq War. In 2008, with no organization to speak of, he got more than a million votes in the Republican primaries.

Paul used the money from that campaign to build an organization for this election and for the future. Paulistas have been testing their strength over the past four years by contesting Republican straw polls, winning several of them. They have people thick on the ground in the early primary states and are doing their damnedest to give Mitt Romney, or some other surprise Republican front-runner, a real fight. They have more natural allies than they did last time in the riled-up tea partiers.

The soon-to-be retired congressman is ready for that fight, but he is unnervingly unanxious about it. My RealClearPolitics colleague Erin McPike recently vocalized the question that a lot of reporters have been wondering: Does he even want to be president? “Sure,” he shrugged. For Paul, it’s all a piece of his life’s struggle. And if he comes up short? Well, like George H.W. Bush, he does have a son.

Jeremy Lott, editor of Real Clear Books, is author of “William F. Buckley” and other books.