Since dropping Gerard Gallant in a controversial firing last week, the Florida Panthers have won just one game and lost four. Three of those losses came in overtime or shootout at least, including Tuesday’s 3-2 OT loss to the Flyers. But since everything this franchise does now will be under the analytics vs. eye test microscope, the early returns on the surface have not been good.

Let’s take a closer look at Tuesday’s loss.

The Panthers held a lead for less than a minute-and-a-half and outshot the Flyers by a 44-25 count. Eight Panthers, including four of their defencemen, had at least four shots on goal while just one Flyer hit that total. If not for an amazing 42-save effort from Steve Mason, Florida would have won this game, but instead, they left with one of the most dominating losses in the past 10 years of NHL action.

This wasn’t a bad loss — it was incredibly flukey. They didn’t just get more shots than the Flyers, they got many more high quality chances than Philadelphia.

Since Tom Rowe took over behind the bench, the Panthers have outshot each of their opponents except for one, but haven’t been able to pull away or earn wins. Just five of their 12 wins so far this year have come in regulation even though they average outshooting their opponent by 1 1/2 shots a game. Florida is top 10 in the league in shots for and bottom-third in shots allowed and yet they currently sit out of a playoff spot.

There are two ways to look at a loss and start to the season like this. One is to suggest that last year’s division champion Panthers were a mirage, that the young team still has a lot of growing to do before it wins with any regularity and that the roster really lacks a finisher. And, maybe, the firing of a seasoned coach like Gallant will exacerbate these issues.

Or, looking at it another way, you may notice Florida’s moving along with a PDO at 98.4, fifth-lowest in the league, suggesting an uptick is on the way and that losses like these will stop happening. The starting goaltending has been solid, so the top shooters should start to click with greater frequency before too long (and James Reimer should start playing somewhat better).

Through all these bumps in the road, Florida is still just three points out of the post-season picture. Tuesday’s loss, one of the most dominating losses in the NHL stretching back almost 10 years, was the continuation of an early-season trend for the Panthers.

But it’s not the losses that are the trend. It’s the mounting bad luck that’s just bound to be corrected.

At least, that’s what the numbers say. Whether you believe them or not is up to you.