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Elizabeth Warren is encroaching on some of Bernie Sanders' key constituencies in Iowa — those who are under age 35 and those who identify as “very liberal,” according to a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Warren is now the leading Democratic presidential candidate in Iowa, with 22% saying she is their first choice for president. It's the first time this caucus cycle she has led the Register’s poll.

Warren, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is the also first choice of 27% of those under 35, compared to Sanders, the U.S. senator from Vermont, at 22%. Trailing further behind are South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden, both at 9%.

"This standing with young caucusgoers marks the first time Warren has held this group, signaling her rise in Iowa is the result of her claiming territory previously held by Bernie Sanders," said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll.

The poll of 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Sept. 14-18, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

As with her overall standing, she has steadily increased support among younger likely caucusgoers. In that under-35 group, in December and March she won support from 11% and 10%, respectively, and 19% in June.

Shawnee Molk, a senior at the University of Iowa, said she has considered Sanders, but never seriously. She’s more attracted to Warren because of her gender and the issues she brings forward.

"She is very strong in the approaches she takes, and she’s willing to stand up for the ideas she has," the 21-year-old said. "She focuses more on what she wants to change rather than the ideas of Trump and getting him out of office."

Among those who describe themselves as "very liberal" nearly half (48%) are backing Warren. Sanders holds the support of 20% of that group — the only other candidate in double digits.

Also noteworthy: Among those who say they caucused for Sanders in 2016, more now support Warren as their first choice for president than Sanders.

Both unapologetic liberals, the two senators espouse similar political agendas.

They argue the government and the economy are rigged against working- and middle-class Americans. Both want to abolish private insurance in favor of "Medicare for All." And both want to eliminate student loan debt and provide universal college tuition.

Warren also leads the field among several other demographic groups, including women (27%), those who are college-educated (27%) and those who live in cities (25%) and suburbs (24%).

And 71% of caucusgoers say they are considering her in some way, either as their first (22%) choice, second choice (20%) or as someone they are actively considering (42%).

One vulnerable spot for Warren, however, is that of those who name her as their first choice for president, only 12% say their mind is made up. Another 88% say they could be persuaded to support another candidate. In comparison, 26% of Biden supporters say their mind is made up, while 70 percent say they could change their mind.

"At first blush, it appears to be a welcoming poll for her. But it’s not rock solid for her at this point," Selzer said.

See all of our latest Iowa Poll results:

​​​​​​​ About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted September 14-18, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,510 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 602 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.

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Kim Norvell covers Elizabeth Warren and growth and development for the Register. Reach her at knorvell@dmreg.com or 515-284-8259.

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