Only 5% of council chiefs feel positive about the impact of Brexit on their local economy, with 71% expecting Brexit to have a ‘negative’ or ‘very negative’ impact on development, a survey by New Local Government Network (NLGN) has found.

Key Findings:

Councils are increasingly pessimistic about the impact of Brexit. 71% of council chiefs expect it to have a negative or very negative impact on their local economy – an increase of 16% since March 2018. Those who expect Brexit to have a positive or very positive impact has halved to 5%.

Among Conservative-led councils, almost half (46%) expect Brexit to have a ‘negative’ or ‘very negative’ impact on their local economy and only 11% thought it would have a ‘positive’ or ‘very positive’ effect.

More than three quarters (79%) of respondents have had to divert resources from key public service to prepare for Brexit.

Optimism in the local business environment has continued to decline and is now the lowest since the first Leadership Index survey in March 2018.

The proportion feeling optimistic has fallen by 54% since NLGN first asked the question in March 2018. Among these, almost half of Tory-led councils (46%) expected Brexit to have a ‘negative’ or ‘very negative’ impact on their local economy, while only 11% thought it would have a ‘positive’ or ‘very positive’ effect.

Meanwhile more than three quarters said they’d had to divert resources away from key services like healthcare, adult social care and children’s services to prepare for Brexit.

This is against a backdrop of decreasing confidence in the local business environment – respondents scored this at 55 (0 being lowest and 100 being highest) this quarter, the lowest since NLGN began measuring this in March 2018.

132 council leaders, chief executives and mayors took part in NLGN’s survey, which showed the effect of Brexit uncertainty varying between types of council, region and service type. For example, in Yorkshire and the Humber, 92% of council heads said they’d had to divert resources towards Brexit planning, while in the North East only half had to do the same.

Across key services, those from upper-tier councils (including county councils) felt more confident than those from district councils. For example, overall under half of all councils said their health and wellbeing services (45%) and adult social care services (44%) were prepared for Brexit whereas around three-quarters of respondents from upper-tier councils (who provide social care) felt their children’s services and adult social care were ready for Brexit.

Most councils’ planning efforts focused on reassuring businesses, with some supporting EU-national staff to remain in the UK and others stockpiling goods. One council described “endless scenario planning and testing of emergency and business resilience plans”. However, as one respondent noted, “Practical acts are difficult [when the] type of exit is not yet known.”



Adam Lent, Director of the New Local Government Network, says:

“As the Brexit saga roles on, hope is being drained from the people in the driving seats of our local areas, with optimism hard-to-come-by even in Tory-led councils. Wherever you stand on the UK leaving the EU, it is clear that Brexit has already exerted an economic toll, stripping resources from vital services that are already eroded by years of cuts.

“The survey shows examples of the tenacity of local government, who are putting efforts into preparing local businesses and residents. However, the bottom line is that while the nature, timing and true impact of Brexit is unclear, planning remains a vague endeavour, which is sucking energy and resources from our communities.”

Notes to editors