Once considered a long-shot to be a major party’s presidential nominee, Bernie Sanders is undoubtedly the Democratic front-runner with less than two weeks before Michigan’s primary election.

Much has changed in the four years since the “democratic-socialist” from Vermont pulled off a surprise upset in Michigan’s 2016 presidential primary -- Sanders now leads in the delegate count, national polls and matchups against his Democratic rivals and President Donald Trump in Midwest battleground states. Supporters shouldering the progressive movement in Michigan said Sanders’ grassroots political operation never left, putting him in a strong position to secure a second Michigan victory on March 10.

“Bernie Sanders has run an incredible campaign that never stopped organizing, never stopped being engaged at the grassroots level across this country since 2016,” said Johnathan Kinloch, chair of the 13th Congressional District Democratic Party and third vice chair of the Michigan Democratic Party.

“I’m not surprised that he has the momentum and wind behind him. Bernie Sanders didn’t just depend upon the wind, Bernie Sanders created the wind.”

There’s still a long way to go before the Democratic primary is settled, but Sanders is charging ahead of his competitors. He bolstered closely contested finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire with a dominating victory in Nevada. He came in second behind former vice president Joe Biden in South Carolina.

Sanders’ contention that he is building a “multiracial, multigenerational, people-driven movement” will be put to the test in the 14 “Super Tuesday” states voting on March 3. Then comes Michigan.

Sanders won across Michigan in 2016 but came out ahead by less than 17,200 votes because he lost the densely populated Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties. Sanders’ campaign has kept a focus on Southeast Michigan, opening field offices in Detroit and Dearborn and picking up the endorsement of U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Detroit, and state Rep. Abdullah Hammoud, D-Dearborn.

Hammoud, who was inspired by Sanders to for office in 2016, said Michigan Democrats are motivated to remove President Donald Trump but are also seeking a candidate who will fight for their values. Sanders proposes raising taxes on the wealthy to create new social programs and cancel student debt, place all Americans on a government-run health care system, end for-profit prisons, boost enrollment in labor unions and raise the pay of teachers and minimum wage workers.

“Sanders’ message has been consistent, it’s been authentic and it’s been genuine,” Hammoud said. “He has the most diverse coalition of support, more than any other candidate. There’s a reason he’s winning the Latino vote, the Arab vote, Muslim vote, and every age group below the age of 65, regardless of his age.”

Michelle Deatrick is the co-founder of Our Revolution Michigan, a local chapter of a national grassroots organization formed to carry on the work of Sanders’ 2016 campaign. She said an army of local organizers and progressive activist groups are reaching across the state to engage first-time voters on college campuses and mobilize people of color on behalf of Sanders.

“The grassroots movement that caused him to win in this state never went away," Deatrick said. "A lot of the new surge of energy and support for the senator is because there’s lots of new people who are volunteering and doing great work. I think we’re really positioned to make this happen.”

The senator visited Michigan six times in the last year, most recently holding a rally in front of 4,700 people that opened with a performance from rock legend Jack White. The campaign held more than 1,500 voter-engagement events, most organized by volunteers.

Lansing-area supporters gathered at a church-turned eclectic business incubator and art house Thursday to recruit volunteers for Sanders before the South Carolina primary. Ross Fisher, 27, said there’s a palpable difference in Sanders’ popularity among Michiganders.

“The campaign last time was always a big underdog, it was kind of running from behind and just trying to catch up,” Fisher said. “This time, getting these wins initially going into Michigan is big.”

Sanders stands out

One major difference from 2016 is the size of the Democratic primary field. Nearly 30 candidates entered the 2020 race, and Sanders still faces seven competitors who remain in the race before Michigan’s primary.

Matt Grossman, director of Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, said Sanders remains the favored candidate to win Michigan. A February poll conducted by the University of Wisconsin-Madison found Sanders with a strong lead in Michigan, with a 9 point lead over former Vice President Joe Biden.

“His biggest competitor and threat for the last year, Joe Biden, is not looking very good at all,” Grossman said. “His main competitor in speaking for the left side of the party, Elizabeth Warren, has not done as well as expected in early states. (Sanders) is in pretty good shape, not because he’s accumulated a majority, but because he’s by far in the best position to do the best in the next couple of weeks.”

Biden led the historically large Democratic primary field in polls taken throughout 2019 but began to drop off when states started voting.

Opposition to Sanders from moderate Democrats is split among Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer -- with Mike Bloomberg set to join the ballot next week -- making it difficult for any single candidate to gain enough momentum to challenge the front-runner.

Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are running on progressive policy platforms, though Warren’s calls for “big structural change” differs in tone from Sanders’ calls for “political revolution." Morning Consult polling consistently shows Sanders is the second choice for Warren voters, and vice versa.

Branden Snyder, executive director of Detroit Action, said Democrats are looking for a candidate to challenge the status quo. Snyder said his organization is working to expand the Democratic electorate with first-time voters and people of color to create a “multicultural populist movement."

“What I think a lot of our folks who gravitate towards Sanders and Warren are trying to make a different argument to, is that the last administration -- as well as what Biden is offering -- doesn’t do anything to rectify that structural imbalance of how politics has been played here in the state, the city and the country,” he said.

Hammoud said too many people in Michigan struggle financially and can’t afford health care, housing or access to higher education. As a millennial facing $345,000 in student debt, Hammoud said Sanders’ promise to provide loan relief and free college resonates with a lot of his peers.

“He was the candidate of choice because the values he spoke to, the principles he fought for, resonated,” Hammoud said. “It was reflective of the life I’ve had growing up in a poor working-class family ... Here was somebody who was actually speaking to me and the values which I was brought up in.”

Sanders supporters said his uncompromising support for progressive policies is a major reason for his appeal.

The Michigan Democratic Party’s Progressive Caucus endorsed Sanders in October 2019, saying he represents a citizens’ movement that is “fed up” with the outsized influence billionaires and corporations have on democracy. Progressive Caucus Chair Tanya Reza said there’s a growing sense of urgency about the increasing gap between the richest and poorest Americans and the looming threat of climate change.

“He’s unapologetic about saying ‘I’m a democratic socialist,’" Reza said. “I think a lot of progressives across the state admire, appreciate and agree with that sentiment. Times are a-changing."

Campaigns are spending more time appealing to Michigan college students who have fewer reasons not to vote thanks to new laws that allow no-reason absentee voting and election day registration. Younger voters are more likely to support the 78-year-old Sanders and generally have a lower opinion of how well capitalism is working.

Ruby Schneider served as chair of the College Democrats at the University of Michigan throughout 2019. She said the Sanders and Warren campaigns have been the most visible on U-M’s campus.

“Bernie Sanders really addresses a lot of the concerns that a lot the young people on our campus are elevating,” she said. “I think for a lot of folks, that is why he is appealing. They’re feeling heard and like he is one of the candidates who is bringing their problems to the national stage.”

Republicans go on offense

Many Democrats are backing the candidate they believe can beat Trump in November, said Mara Zumberg, a 27-year-old Sanders volunteer. One of the most effective ways she’s swayed voters is by explaining that Sanders beat Trump in nearly every poll taken since the start of 2020.

Some Democrats fear Sanders’ policies will turn off independent voters in Midwest battleground states. Other Democratic candidates argue they need to bring in moderate Republicans who have been turned off Trump in the last four years.

Moderate Democrats wonder if Sanders’ support for “Medicare for All” will tank his chances in the general election. Replacing private insurance with government-run health care appears unpopular with swing voters in crucial battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a December 2019 poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Cook Political Report.

In earlier-voting states, Medicare for All was scorned by some union leaders that worked hard to negotiate affordable and comprehensive health care plans for their members. Michigan’s union leaders have largely remained silent on the issue.

Trump told supporters at a December 2019 rally in Battle Creek that “far-left” Democrats are pushing a “socialist takeover of healthcare that will take away your coverage and take away your doctor." Vice President Mike Pence called out Sanders by name during a February rally in Oakland County.

Republicans have begun to attack Michigan Democrats in competitive districts as Sanders rises in the polls.

Democrats representing Michigan’s formerly Republican 8th and 11th Districts haven’t embraced Sanders. U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, does not plan to endorse a candidate, while U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Rochester Hills, supports Bloomberg.

Snyder said Democrats shouldn’t ask voters to make their choice based on conjecture about what could happen in November.

“We’re making this electability argument in old models and talking to folks in Macomb County -- white working-class voters -- when the reality is that if we put forward a candidate who actually inspires folks and actually talked about values and things that people cared about, and double down on turning out our base, we can actually have a fighting chance," he said.

Detroit resident Earl Johnson is planning to vote for Sanders, saying he values the candidate’s honesty. However, he’s not sure that Sanders can win back swing states that carried Trump to the White House.

“I’d be voting with my fingers crossed,” Johnson said.