Michigan is aging faster than the rest of the U.S. — here's why

They used to be rare as a steel penny — people turning 100.

Now they're still remarkable, just not so rare.

Earlier this month, parishioners at Greenfield Presbyterian Church in Berkley celebrated the 100th birthday of member Jean Marnich, a church founder in 1949. Ever since then, Marnich has volunteered at the church, doing "just about everything but clean the men's toilets and preach, and I still might try preaching," Marnich said. Her actual 100th is June 9.

A couple of days later, at a senior center in Grosse Pointe Farms, another party feted another Jean: Jean Gilbert had her 100th last week. While the crowd at Services for Older Citizens ate a heart-smart medley of chicken and vegetables, Gilbert got her favorite meal: Kentucky Fried Chicken, mashed potatoes with gravy and onion rings. At her table stood a framed photo showing Gilbert posing proudly in uniform while she served overseas in the Army Air Corps during World War II.

Marnich, born in Scotland, said her secret to longevity was having "a good family, wonderful friends and a good God." Gilbert credited "a lot of hard work," beginning with early stints in counter sales for J.L. Hudson and Woolworth stores, although these days she admits to being fully retired so as to relish twice-weekly games of bingo at the senior center.

It’s no secret that Americans are living longer. But behind that fact of longer lives is a bigger trend involving the nation's seniors, one that will reshape American culture. And in Michigan, it’s happening faster than almost anywhere, according to veteran demographer Kurt Metzger, retired founder of the prominent think tank called Data Driven Detroit.

Metzger, a former director of Wayne State University's Center for Urban Studies, said he came to a startling conclusion after crunching numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Michigan Department of Transportation and the University of Michigan's Institute for Research on Labor, Employment and the Economy.

First, he zeroed in on an unprecedented moment in the future, "when the seniors will outnumber the youngsters," Metzger said.

"It's a big deal — the first time in history," he said, that people aged 65 and over will outnumber those 17 and younger. That moment is what forecasters call "the cross-over," and nationwide it's expected to occur in 2035. But what startled Metzger was discovering that, in Michigan, it's to come a decade sooner -- in 2025.

Michiganders to age sooner

"To see that Michigan will beat the nation by 10 years, that's really going to be something visible here," Metzger said. Just why Michigan is in the cross hairs of the "cross-over" stems from some population oddities within the state, which are accelerating several broad trends sweeping the nation, he said.

First, the broad trends: Americans are indeed living longer. Although longevity figures can be distorted for short periods by statistical flukes, such as the current rash of premature deaths from opioid overdoses, in general Americans are consistently outliving their parents. So more and more of them are going to be enjoying centennial birthdays, like the two celebrated this week in metro Detroit.

Also, consider the much-ballyhooed bulge called Baby Boomers. They’re the biggest bunch of Americans ever and they aren’t getting any younger. Born between 1946 and 1964, the Boomers now constitute an unprecedented tidal wave of aging Americans, dubbed “the silver tsunami.” Their group is a large reason that the trend line, on a chart showing the nation's population of elderly Americans, angles up over time like the side of a mountain. That trend line is what forms the "cross-over" when it bisects a descending line, which represents the shrinking number of American children up through age 17.

And why are there fewer and fewer kids? Birth rates have fallen for roughly half a century, releasing a cascade of effects in the U.S. and other developed nations, from Italy to Japan. They include smaller families, schools that are closing and employers thinking they'll soon need a lot more robots because there won’t be enough workers.

Yet, in Michigan these trends are being magnified by local phenomena, said Metzger. For example, for the last two decades, countless young Michiganders — many in their 20s — have left the state for more enticing job markets, on both US coasts and in the New South. That exodus ramped up to a stampede during the Great Recession of 2008-12, when Michigan's job market tanked, Metzger said.

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Another factor is that immigrants for decades have flooded other parts of the country, mainly the Deep South and Southwest. But in Michigan? Not so much. And because immigrants tend to be young and tend to have many more children than other Americans, they inflate a state's share of youth — a boost that Michigan missed, Metzger said.

Finally, Michigan's seniors are typically not as well-heeled as those in some other states. So they’re less able to retire to Florida, Arizona and other havens of flush retirees. Michigan's seniors are more likely to grow old right here.

Although Michigan as a whole is “aging” faster than the rest of the U.S., Metzger found that Wayne County is not. That’s because, contrary to the general statewide trend toward smaller family size, Wayne County has several factors pushing family size up. Those factors include having many more single-parent households than in neighboring counties, and also having much larger populations of color and ethnicity.

“African Americans, Latinos and Middle Eastern immigrants tend to have larger families, and that results in a younger overall population,” Metzger said.

Even so, in the Wayne County of the future, silver hair and bifocals will proliferate. Meanwhile, virtually everywhere else in Michigan, as well as nationwide, they will dominate. So, what's in store? Turns out, there's some good coming, and some that's not so good.

Senior glut won't be all bad

Metzger, a Baby Boomer who is mayor of Pleasant Ridge, said it's widely known that seniors tend to vote. That's generally good for society. Less obvious is that, as the average age of Michiganders rises, getting a public school millage proposal to pass will get harder, Metzger said.

Another good thing about the trend is that Boomers will be the healthiest old fogies the U.S. has ever seen, mentally and physically, said Therese Jamison, director of the nursing degree program at Lawrence Technological University in Southfield.

"Not only is this the most health-minded generation we've seen, they are going to enjoy significant advances in care," driven not only by the inexorable march of science but also by the vast number of new patients seeking that care, Jamison said.

The nation's overall health-care costs are sure to rise, including society's tab for Medicare. Who will pay more in taxes, and how laws might change to control costs, are looming questions posed often by AARP — formerly, the American Association of Retired Persons.

On the other hand, the coming glut of seniors could change American culture in ways that many younger folks find they like, said Eric Schneidewind, a retired lawyer in Lansing. He's the volunteer president of the national AARP, which is based in Washington, D.C.

Seniors tend to join clubs, to volunteer, to attend concerts, to visit libraries as well as art galleries, and they provide assistance to younger family members, Schneidewind said. Also, frankly, they're less likely to commit crime or tear up the neighborhood on Saturday night.

“We believe that the growing presence of seniors in America is going to have a very positive effect," Schneidewind said.

The big cohort of Boomers will have significant political clout, something that AARP hopes to wield in a campaign to create what AARP calls "liveable communities," so that more seniors can "age in place" rather than move to costly, specialized retirement centers, he added.

"That means building support for things like better transportation options, more walkable communities — with things like curb cuts and paths — and easier access to health-care facilities and nearby exercise programs," he said.

Such amenities can help more Americans live longer, healthier lives. Of course, for a lucky few it seems that little more is needed than merely possessing good genes.

Gilbert said she hears and sees pretty much as she always did, going back to the 1920s when she'd swim on hot days at Belle Isle. Her mind is still sharp as she calculates the best deals while grocery shopping, her daughters added, during the June 5 birthday luncheon. As the crowd chattered, Gilbert tapped her noggin and told a reporter, "I have all my, you know, faculties."

Marnich, too, seems to hold a lucky hand of genetic cards, right down to having survived a fall on a Sunday night in her bedroom. She lay there, without food or water, until Tuesday morning when a friend found her.

"Once I was picked up, I was fine. That's the good Scot in me," she said with a laugh.

Contact blaitner@freepress.com