Social distancing is essential to manage the spread of COVID-19. But just 20 per cent of the work leave taken by low-wage earners in Toronto is paid, according to new statistics provided to the Star.

That puts Toronto behind other major cities including Calgary, Quebec, and Montreal, according to an analysis by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. And it leaves low-wage workers in an excruciating position, says the organization’s senior economist David Macdonald.

“This really emphasizes that there are a lot of people who cannot weather the COVID-19 storm very well,” he said.

“They will almost certainly either be in tight straits, asking family or neighbours to help them out with kids — or they will just take a big hit of income. And that’s probably the more likely of the two.”

Macdonald looked at how the coronavirus pandemic might impact workers in the GTA compared to the rest of the country, based on 2019 labour force survey data.

The results showed that while permanent employees in Toronto fare slightly better than the rest of Canada on access to paid leave, precarious workers in the city fared worse.

For example, while 14 per cent of leave taken by Canadian seasonal workers was paid, that figure was just 3 per cent for Toronto. Only 28 per cent of leave taken by temporary workers in Toronto was paid in 2019, compared to the national average of 33 per cent.

Macdonald’s analysis also showed the city’s retail workers – who are likely to be significantly impacted by COVID-19 – also fare worse on access to paid leave than their counterparts nationally.

“It is eye-opening to take a look at this and say, if we were to take schools and close them for three weeks, how many people would be able to cover that with paid leave,” said Macdonald.

“This not an academic question. This is a live question.”

In addition to the GTA-based statistics shared with the Star, the CCPA released a study Monday looking at employer-paid leave and employment insurance coverage across Canada.

The analysis used weeklong absences in 2019 as a proxy for the likelihood of workers receiving paid leave during a COVID-19 related work absence.

It found that nationally, employers paid for less than 40 per cent of illness or disability leave and less than a quarter of family responsibility leaves in 2019.

Again, sectors most likely to be impacted by COVID-19 were also amongst the least likely to offer paid leave.

For example, only 19 per cent of the leave taken by workers in accommodation and food services was paid.

Overall the study found that just 14 per cent of the leave taken by Canada’s poorest 10 per cent was paid. Meanwhile, three-quarters of the leave taken by the country’s highest earning decile was paid.

Without significant support, Macdonald said it was a “fantasy” that low-wage earners could engage in social distancing.

The CCPA report also looked at access to Employment Insurance, as workers lose their jobs due to pandemic-related economic slow down.

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The study found that in 2018, just 33 per cent of unemployed women and 38 per cent of unemployed men received EI benefits. The numbers were worse for unemployed part-time and self-employed workers: just 20 and 17 per cent of those groups respectively accessed EI benefits.

“It’s just so surprising that the coverage is so low,” Macdonald said.

“That is not a universal program. That is a very specialized program. The barriers to entry have been a huge impediment to lower-income or part-time workers getting in the door.”

In Toronto, Erik Kruka is feeling the pandemic’s impact as the head projectionist at TIFF Lightbox. With the venue shut down in response to COVID-19, he’s now on temporary layoff – like many in the entertainment sector.

While the typical one-week waiting period for EI benefits has been waived for those quarantined, it remains in place for those who have simply lost their job.

“I think getting rid of the one-week waiting period for everybody would help and also any pay back provisions. That would be a great assistance,” Kruka said.

“It would be nice if employers would kick in a top-off. Certain venues are and others aren’t,” he added.

Kruka said many of his colleagues juggle numerous part-time jobs, which could complicate their eligibility for EI.

“The front of house staff I think will have a real tough go,” he said.

Justin Antheunis, president of Local 58 of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, Moving Picture Technician union, noted that the sector is “by nature precarious,” and that the impact of the virus “is only going to grow.”

The CCPA report recommends waiving the requirement for a medical certificate to access the EI sickness benefit, creating an emergency fund for those who would otherwise not qualify, lowering the amount of worked hours needed to get EI.

Currently, employees need to have 600 hours worked to get sickness benefits, and sometimes more to receive regular benefits.

“The government should lower the qualifying threshold to 360 hours for both sickness and regular benefits,” the CCPA report says.

Based on its other findings, the report also warns that relaying on paid leave or working from home “aren’t realistic options for most workers.”

“Without better government interventions,” the report says, “many workers will see sudden drops in income, particularly in a quarantine situation.”