Hogan Enjoys Commanding Lead Over Jealous In Latest Goucher Poll

Gov. Larry Hogan enjoys an 22-point lead among likely voters in a poll out Wednesday

The latest Goucher College poll finds the well-funded Republican incumbent leading Democrat Ben Jealous, 54 percent to 32 percent.

Read the Goucher Poll results here.

Jealous, who only started running television ads this week, has earned support from national figures like Bernie Sanders but struggled to earn endorsements among Maryland Democrats. Comptroller Peter Franchot, who earlier said he would stay neutral in the governor's race, recently said he wouldn't even cast a vote in the contest.

Jealous, who upset establishment pick Rushern Baker in Maryland's primary, has the support of just 48 percent of Democratic likely voters, while 38 percent said they would cross the aisle for Hogan. Seventy-three percent of voters say they don't see themselves changing their minds before voting (including 71 percent of Democratic likely voters).

LISTEN: Goucher Poll director Mileah Kromer joins WBAL News Now to discuss the latest results:

Jealous' support skews toward younger voters, while the majority of likely voters 35 and older support Hogan. Around half of black likely voters support Jealous, compared to little over one-third for Hogan. If elected, Jealous would be the state's first black governor.

Among central Maryland voters, Hogan leads Jealous 56 percent to 29 percent. Among voters in Montgomery and Prince George's counties, Hogan has just a five-point edge, just outside the poll's margin of error. Outside those areas, Hogan holds a more commanding lead, 68 percent to 23 percent.

Green candidate Ian Schlakman and Libertarian candidate Shawn Quinn each claimed 1 percent support.

Numbers released from the Goucher poll on Tuesday found that 64 percent of adults approve or strongly approve of the job Hogan is doing, but that many are fans of some of Jealous' proposals. That's what the Jealous campaign latched onto, noting Hogan, too, lagged in the last polls before his own election.

"The Goucher Poll doesn't change our path to victory—if anything it explains it. It shows that public pollsters, just as they did in 2014 when they had Larry Hogan down by 17 points in October, continue to underestimate voter turnout dynamics," senior adviser Kevin Harris said. "It shows more than a third of the electorate has yet to make up their minds, showing that we have tremendous room for growth before any of our advertising spending has taken place. It shows our message is the winning message, with voters looking for change rooted the bold progressive planks of Ben's vision."

However, Hogan's campaign manager, Jim Barnett, accused the Jealous campaign of "fuzzy math," and said the poll already assumes a heavily Democratic turnout. Barnett said Jealous' path would require all undecided and minor party voters to swing to Jealous, along with significantly higher turnout among Democrats.

"In short, it seems Jealous is relying on the same crowd to calculate his path to victory as he uses to calculate the cost of his policy ideas because none of it adds up," Barnett said in a statement.

If Hogan wins, he would be the first Republican governor to win re-election since Theodore McKeldin in 1954. He would be the first Republican to win re-election to any statewide office since Charles "Mac" Mathias won a third term in the U.S. Senate in 1980.

Jealous also lags behind in financing. His campaign reported having $265,518.81 in the bank as of Aug. 21. Hogan's campaign claimed just over $8 million, according to the most recent available campaign finance reports.

The poll found that the economy was the primary deciding factor for voters (25 percent), with education, racial and social justice and national politics just behind (all 13 percent).

By a 47 percent to 36 percent margin, however, voters said it was more important for a governor to bring about change than maintain stability.

On specific issues, voters trusted Hogan more on economic development (66 percent to 23 percent), education (51 to 36) and health care (51 to 35).

On down ballot races, 38 percent said Hogan's endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate (25 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate). Jealous' endorsement carried weight for 26 percent of those polled, while 35 percent said they would be less likely to vote for that candidate.

Jealous has attempted to tie Hogan to President Donald Trump. However, the poll found that feelings about Trump may have little sway at the ballot box even in heavily Democratic Maryland. Just 27 percent of voters polled said feelings about Trump would have a major impact on their vote while 50 percent said their views on Trump had no impact. Those numbers are basically the same as the ones from Goucher polls conducted in February and April.

Hogan's support among Republicans wasn't significantly hurt by his distance from Trump. He didn't endorse the president in 2016 and has publicly split from him on various issues. However, Hogan still claims the support of 91 percent of Republican likely voters in the poll.

The poll found Sen. Ben Cardin leading handily in his re-election bid, with 56 percent of adults polled saying they would vote for him over rivals including Republican Tony Campbell. Fourteen percent said they were undecided.

Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh leads Republican Craig Wolf, 58 percent to 26 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

The poll drew from 831 Maryland residents. Of them, 696 said they were registered voters, and 472 were identified as likely voters. The poll surveyed Democrats and Republicans at a rate roughly equal to their share of state voter registrations. Interviews were conducted from last Tuesday, Sept. 11 to Sunday. Eighty-three percent of the live interviews were conducted on a cell phone. The poll had a 4.5 percent margin of error.