Feb 5, 2020

The Syrian army’s ongoing military operation in the northwestern province of Idlib has resulted in a number of strategic gains for President Bashar al-Assad’s government. On Jan. 28, the Syrian army recaptured Maaret al-Numan, a strategic town south of the city of Idlib, from rebel and terrorist groups. The achievement was seen as an important step to regain full control over the M5 highway that connects Damascus with Aleppo. As has been the case with the previous rounds of the Syrian army’s operations in Idlib, the recent advances were made possible by Russian air support for the Syrian forces. However, what has been new this time is the active presence of Iranian and Iranian-backed forces on the battlefield that has been reported.

The British newspaper The Daily Telegraph published a report Jan. 26 containing leaked radio communications from Iran-backed Afghan fighters known as the Fatemiyoun Division showing their involvement in the ongoing battles in Idlib. The newspaper said the estimated number of Fatemiyoun forces in Idlib is between 400 and 800. Earlier in January, there were media reports, citing Turkish intelligence, that several Iran-backed groups in Syria had been deployed to the Idlib and Aleppo fronts. On Jan. 27, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized “the combined forces of Russia, the Iranian regime, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime” for conducting a massive assault on Idlib and western Aleppo.

Despite its persistent military and political support for the Assad government, the Islamic Republic had refrained from getting involved in the previous rounds of the Syrian army’s operations in the country’s northwest. As such, Tehran’s decision to assist the Assad government in its current military campaign in Idlib could be considered an important development.

If we are to discuss the reasons behind Iran’s change of course regarding Idlib, first we should take into account the situation that emerged after the Jan. 3 assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani by the United States. Removing Soleimani, the mastermind behind the Islamic Republic’s regional strategy, resulted in speculation that Iran would start to lose influence in Syria. Such a possibility appeared to cause concern even for Assad, who quickly decided to dispatch his intelligence chief Ali Mamlouk to Tehran to talk with Iranian officials about their “coordination during the next stage.”

As such, Iran’s recent involvement in Idlib could be seen as both trying to send a message to its rivals that its power and influence in Syria have remained intact, and reassuring Assad that he can still count on Tehran’s support where and when needed. This reassurance effort was also evident when the Fars news agency — affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — published a report Jan. 26 underlining the role of the Quds Force in preventing the collapse of the Assad regime since the early stages of the Syrian uprising. This was the first time a semi-official Iranian news agency had written about the role of the IRGC's Quds Force in Syria before the rise of the Islamic State (IS) in 2013.