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KEY POINTS Democrat Conor Lamb has an edge in the House special election in Pennsylvania in three different turnout models, according to a Monmouth University poll.

Republicans are looking to avoid a loss in the 18th District, which President Donald Trump won easily in 2016.

Democratic candidate Conor Lamb has seized the lead in Tuesday's closely watched House special election in Pennsylvania, according to a poll released Monday. A Monmouth University poll of the 18th District race in southwestern Pennsylvania showed the 33-year-old former prosecutor with an advantage under three different voting models. Lamb leads 60-year-old Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone by a 51 percent to 45 percent margin if turnout matches the Democratic enthusiasm seen in special elections during the last year. A model that aims to capture historical turnout in midterm election years found a 2 percentage point lead for Lamb. A third, high-turnout model showed a 7 percentage point edge for the Democrat. Saccone led in all three models in a Monmouth poll released last month.

Conor Lamb, Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, left, greets an attendee after speaking during a campaign rally with members of the United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) at the Greene County Fairgrounds in Waynesburg, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Sunday, March 11, 2018. Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images