According to the results of the economic forum in Krynica, the Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Moravetsky made a number of important statements.

First, the Polish economy continues to grow steadily, and secondly, the country’s influence in Eastern Europe is increasing. And in the third place, Warsaw needs to look for new support points, since the EU and the US can hardly be considered reliable partners.

The first two positions sound joyful and hopeful. And indeed, Poland is almost the only EU state whose economy demonstrates consistently stable growth. Accession to the structure of the European Union was a powerful locomotive and gave such a significant impetus that even during the financial crisis, the country’s GDP steadily grew by 2.6%. To date, according to Eurostat, real GDP growth in Poland is 5%, which can not boast of any European economy. For this, Warsaw deserves to say a special thanks to the Ukrainian labor migrants, the number of which according to official statistics has already exceeded 3.5 million people. This made it possible to fully fulfill the number of Poles looking for a job in Western Europe.

Well, now a little about the sad. As part of the European Union, Poland receives not only a positive impetus for the economy, but also takes all the risks existing in the alliance, such as “foci of inflammation”, such as countries in southern Europe (in this case I mean the difficult economic situation in Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain).

The grave financial and economic crisis of the countries of Southern Europe is a huge threat to the economies of all EU countries. And Poland will not be an exception. After all, if the European economy slides into a new crisis, it will certainly hurt.

Yes, and the upcoming Brexit will have a negative impact on the Polish economy. After all, the EU budget will decrease by 20%, which will naturally affect subsidies from Brussels.

The adoption of the seven-year EU budget is expected soon. It will already review the alignment policy, which was an important reason for such high Polish economic indicators. Financing of Poland is planned to be cut by 23%, which does not cause rapture in Warsaw. And this is in view of the fact that the European Commission has already decided to reduce the participation in the infrastructure projects of the countries of Eastern and Central Europe in order to redirect financial flows towards Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy.

I also think that it is worth mentioning the recent statement of French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in which he said that Poland and Hungary “do not respect the fundamental principles and believe that they do not owe anything to other members of the community.” And Warsaw is designated as a victim who will be demonstratively punished by an economic whip for refusing to accept refugees and uncoordinated legislative reforms in Brussels (the most vivid contradictions were caused by the judicial reform carried out by Poland).

The unfolding negative for Poland environment is fueled by the growing contradictions between the US and the EU. Warsaw is the contender for the position of the main American ally in Europe. After the release of Britain, the counterweight to German-French domination disappears. And, consequently, there is another reason to appoint Poland a victim.

And such opportunities are not satisfied with the Polish leadership. The development of the economic and political situation is pushing Warsaw to search for new sources of income and financing in order to ensure economic prosperity. And if there are none in the West, then the search for new support points in the East begins.

The Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century is becoming the most developing center for the intersection of world economies. Therefore, Poland’s integration into its financial flows is viewed by the Polish leadership as a more reliable basis for economic development than European subsidies.

President of Poland Andrzej Duda has already stated that his country is interested in investment cooperation with China. At the same time, the Polish side supports all Chinese initiatives within the framework of the “New Silk Road” project.

But even here there are pitfalls. Strategic partnership with Asia causes irritation and misunderstanding among overseas friends and patrons. In Poland, they are well aware that if a full-fledged partnership with China is realized, it will be necessary to completely reconsider the direction of its foreign policy and to reorient itself to the East.

But the way to the East lies through a hostile Russia, without establishing relations with which one should not dream of full cooperation with Beijing.

And given that the US and China view each other as direct competitors, Poland will definitely have to make a choice. And this situation can happen quite soon.

So it turns out that at present Poland stands at a crossroads. And if the direction of the EU seems to be no doubt and has already exhausted itself, the choice between the US and the Eastern partners is very difficult and vitally important for the Polish leadership.

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