An earlier version of this column contained incorrect data. It has been corrected and updated.

President Trump is proposing cuts — in some cases big cuts — to safety net programs that millions of Americans depend on. It’s part of his 2021 budget that the White House unveiled Monday.

The plan, being rolled out in what is expected to be a tight re-election bid for Trump, calls for steep cuts in programs like student loan assistance, affordable housing efforts, food stamps and Medicaid. Medicaid, of course, is a federal and state program that helps Americans of limited means with medical costs not normally covered by Medicare, such as nursing home care and personal care services.

Medicaid cuts would come, notes the New York Times, in the form of a lower portion of Obamacare-related medical bills that the federal government would pay for. It would also impose new requirements on beneficiaries who wish to enroll. Altogether, such spending reductions could come to $1 trillion over the next decade.

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But Trump is not proposing benefit cuts to the two biggest entitlement programs: Social Security or Medicare, possibly to avoid giving Democrats an election year issue. He tweeted to that effect over the weekend, vowing that his budget “will not be touching your Social Security or Medicare.”

Even so, the idea of possible cuts to these so-called “third-rail” programs may be on the president’s radar.

“We’ve brought it up with President Trump,” Sen. John Barrasso, Republican of Wyoming, said last summer. And Trump “has talked about it being a second-term project.” And as recently as last month when he attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the president was asked if he would ever consider cutting entitlements. Trump’s response: “At some point they will be.” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has also expressed a desire to cut entitlement spending, calling it “the real drivers of the debt.”

For their part, Democrats charge that Trump’s 2017 tax cuts—heavily focused on breaks for corporations and wealthy individuals—have spiked the deficit. These dueling narratives will be a key part of the nasty 2020 campaign.

That debate aside, the numbers do show that spending on the “big three”—Social Security ($1.1 trillion), Medicare ($679 billion) and Medicaid ($418 billon)—will be approximately $2.19 trillion in 2020, nearly three times more than defense spending ($738 billion).

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It’s also true that spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is soaring, as an estimated 10,000 baby boomers retire each day, a trend that is expected to continue through 2029. The strain on Social Security is evident right now: This year, the program began dipping into reserves to pay beneficiaries; by 2034, that surplus is projected to be gone and after that Social Security—which is based on payroll taxes—will only be able to pay 79% of projected benefits. To make up the difference, payroll taxes will have to go up, or eligibility ages will have to rise—perhaps both. Either way, pain is in the forecast. More workers could also enter the workforce and pay into the system, but U.S. birth rates are declining and the Trump administration is working to lower even legal immigration.

For now though, this is all academic. Trump’s proposed cuts to the social safety net are highly unlikely to get through Nancy Pelosi’s House of Representatives, just as Democratic proposals to raise taxes to expand entitlements would never get through Mitch McConnell’s Senate. This means entitlement spending will keep chugging along and growing. We’ll see who’s in control after November.

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For now though, this is all academic. Trump’s proposed cuts to the social safety net will surely never get through Nancy Pelosi’s House of Representatives, just as Democratic proposals to raise taxes to expand entitlements would probably never get through Mitch McConnell’s Senate. This means entitlement spending will keep chugging along and growing. We’ll see who’s in control after November.