Story highlights Republicans take brunt of blame for government shutdown, debt fight

Some handicappers say Democrats have improved their chances in midterms

Tea party groups expected to be very active next year

Democrats showed strong unity during Congressional standoff

Long before the ink had dried on the Senate deal to end the government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling, the writing was already on the wall for the Republican Party: The last three weeks have hurt them.

They have borne the brunt of the blame for shutting down the government, and polls show that a large majority of Americans disapprove of the way the Congressional GOP has handled the fight over funding the government and raising the debt ceiling.

And now, non-partisan political handicappers say the likelihood of Democrats winning the House and maintaining control in the Senate in 2014 has increased.

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Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – The Statue of Liberty looms over visitors below on Liberty Island in New York Harbor on Sunday, October 13, 2013. The statue was closed to the public by the federal government's partial shutdown that began October 1, 2013, but reopened Sunday after the state of New York agreed to shoulder the costs of running the site during the shutdown. Hide Caption 1 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Empty tables overlooking Seal Rocks are seen inside the closed Cliff House on Wednesday, October 9, in San Francisco. The 150-year-old oceanside icon was ordered closed by the National Park Service for the duration of the partial government shutdown, leaving most of the restaurant's 170 employees without work. Hide Caption 2 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Boaters gather to protest the closure of Everglades National Park waters on October 9 near Islamorada, Florida. About a third of the 2,380-square-mile park encompasses Florida Bay and has been closed to Florida Keys guides and recreational fishermen since October 1. Hide Caption 3 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A camping party at the Dolly Copp campground in Gorham, New Hampshire, on October 9 is told that the park will close on Thursday, October 10, at noon. The privately run campground in New Hampshire's White Mountains National Forest was forced to close ahead of the lucrative Columbus Day weekend because of the federal government shutdown. Hide Caption 4 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Rick Hohensee holds a "Fire Congress" sign near the House steps on Capitol Hill in Washington on Tuesday, October 8. Hide Caption 5 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Officers stand at the base of stairs leading to the Capitol Rotunda on Monday, October 7. Hide Caption 6 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Tourists take photos at a barricade blocking access to the World War II Memorial in Washington on Sunday, October 6. Hide Caption 7 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – River runners make camp in a dirt parking lot in Marble Canyon, Arizona, after being unable to access the Colorado River at Lee's Ferry on Saturday, October 5. Hide Caption 8 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A closure sign is posted on the National Mall in front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Thursday, October 3. Hide Caption 9 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Tourists take photos of the Statue of Liberty while riding a tour boat in New York Harbor on October 3. The statue is adminstered by the National Park Service and is closed as a result of the government shutdown. Hide Caption 10 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A single security guard patrols the closed Lincoln Memorial in Washington on October 3. Hide Caption 11 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A U.S. Capitol police officer walks past a statue of Gerald Ford in the rotunda on Tuesday, October 1. The Capitol is closed to tours because of the government shutdown. Hide Caption 12 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Barricades around the World War II Memorial in Washington prevent people from entering the monument on October 1. The memorial was temporary opened to veteran groups who arrived on Honor Flights on a day trip to visit the nation's capital. Hide Caption 13 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – World War II veteran Russell Tucker of Meridian, Mississippi, stands outside the barricade as he visits the World War II Memorial in Washington on October 1. Hide Caption 14 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – World War II Veteran George Bloss, from Gulfport, Mississippi, looks out over the National World War II Memorial in Washington, on October 1. Veterans who had traveled from across the country were allowed to visit the National World War II Memorial after it had been officially closed because of the partial government shutdown. Hide Caption 15 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A park ranger secures a road at the entrance to the Mount Rushmore National Memorial on October 1 in Keystone, South Dakota. Hide Caption 16 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A visitor takes a picture of a sign announcing the closure of the Fort Point National Historic Site due to the partial government shutdown on October 1 in San Francisco, California. Hide Caption 17 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Visitors to Independence National Historical Park are reflected in the window of the closed building housing the Liberty Bell, on October 1 in Philadelphia. Hide Caption 18 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Hot Springs National Park employee Stacy Jackson carries a barricade while closing Arlington Lawn in Hot Springs National Park in Arkansas on October 1. Hide Caption 19 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – The Washington Monument is seen behind a chain fence in Washington, on October 1. Hide Caption 20 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A National Park Service ranger finishes putting up a sign indicating all facilities at the Martin Luther King Historic Site are closed to the public in Atlanta, on October 1. Hide Caption 21 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A Capitol police officer walks through the empty Capitol Rotunda, closed to tours during the government shutdown on Capitol Hill in Washington, on October 1. Hide Caption 22 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – An employee at the Springfield Armory National Historic Site in Springfield, Massachusetts, puts up a sign on October 1, to notify visitors that the site is closed because of a government shutdown. Hide Caption 23 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A U.S. Park Service police officer stands at the closed Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial on the National Mall in Washington on October 1. Hide Caption 24 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A man looks into the closed Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum in Washington on October 1. Hide Caption 25 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A U.S. park ranger places a closed sign on a barricade in front of the World War II Memorial in Washington on October 1. Hide Caption 26 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Park police and Park Service employees close down the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial on the National Mall on October 1. Hide Caption 27 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Members of the U.S. National Park Service close the Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall in Washington on October 1. Hide Caption 28 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A U.S. park ranger posts a closed sign at the Lincoln Memorial on October 1. Hide Caption 29 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – People look at a sign announcing that the Statue of Liberty is closed in New York on October 1. Hide Caption 30 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – Fencing around the World War II Memorial prevents people from entering the monument on the National Mall in Washington on October 1. Hide Caption 31 of 32 Photos: Government shutdown of 2013 Government shutdown of 2013 – A U.S. park service police officer stands guard at the entrance of the closed Lincoln Memorial on October 1. Hide Caption 32 of 32

"Republicans have ratcheted up their risk," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of The Rothenberg Political Report. "There is now a plausible case for the midterms being a plus for the Democrats, where I would never said that six months ago."

Rothenberg said the GOP is being perceived as "a chaotic, disorganized, confused party" and it is likely that their fundraising numbers will likely begin to slow in the coming months.

"Big dollar donors, who are more pragmatic business types, are now worried about where the party is going," he said. "For Democrats, this helps them for 2014 in recruitment, in fundraising and in overall morale."

Conservatives and Obamacare

The shutdown began because conservative Republicans - emboldened by Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah -- pushed Republican leaders to tie funding the government with significant changes to Obamacare and Democrats refused.

Throughout the 16-day shutdown, House Speaker John Boehner and his leadership colleagues listened to their caucus and demanded that President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats come to the negotiating table to make concessions on the presidents sweeping healthcare law.

But when Democrats didn't budge -- only agreeing in the end to increase fraud protection on the healthcare program -- Republican leadership was forced to agree to a scaled back deal.

On top of drawing the ire of a majority of the American people, the back and forth highlighted a noticeable rift in the Republican party: between more pragmatic Republicans and their emboldened tea party colleagues.

As news of the deal broke, unhappy tea party groups, who saw the deal as a capitulation by the establishment Republicans in Washington, began to bang their primary challenger drum, promising to run against Republicans that didn't back tying Obamacare to the shutdown and debt ceiling.

"Congress will feel the repercussions of refusing to negotiate at all and for refusing to live under the same law the forced on the American people," Jenny Beth Martin, national coordinator for Tea Party Patriots said, who told CNN to expect tea party groups to fervently challenger other Republicans in 2014.

"I expect tea party groups will be very active next year," Martin said.

And Martin may be right. Just a quick look at Republicans running for reelection in the Senate shows tea party groups are already mobilizing to take on other Republicans.

Challenges to incumbents

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has been a leading critic of Obama's policies on a number of fronts, but in heavily conservative South Carolina, a Republican incumbent can't take anything for granted. Graham faces a crowded primary field against state Sen. Lee Bright, businessman Richard Cash, and PR executive and Citadel graduate Nancy Mace.

At this early stage of the race, Graham has the clear advantage in terms of money and organization. But that could change if conservative tea party activists begin to coalesce behind a single "anyone-but-Graham" candidate.

The story is similar for Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, who is now seeking his third term in 2014. He faces a primary challenge from state Rep. Joe Carr and 2012 Senate candidate Brenda Lenard.

Alexander is not a favorite among conservative tea party activists. In August, a coalition of 20 Tennessee tea party and conservative groups sent the Senator an open letter asking him to retire.

And the highest profile GOP senate primary of 2014 pits three-term incumbent Mike Enzi of Wyoming against Liz Cheney, the eldest daughter of former Vice President and Wyoming favorite son Dick Cheney. The national party is backing Enzi, while Cheney has the backing of conservative activists.

Many in the tea party see these races -- along with races in the House -- as an opportunity.

"The Republicans have had five years to try and make some progress in remedying the financial ills that plague our nation's future, and have made little to no progress," the Tea Party Express said in a written statement. "The silver lining in all this is that the 2014 elections are just around the corner and 'We The People' have our chance to tell our leaders exactly how we feel about the 'compromise' reached today."

As tea party groups threaten Republican-on-Republican challenges, more moderate Republicans have publicly said that would be a bad idea.

"The way to achieve more conservative governance in 2015 is not spending $$ to defeat Republicans in 2014," Tim Miller, the executive director of the America Rising PAC, a Republican research firm, tweeted hours after the Senate deal was reached.

Miller told CNN he still sees the political map in 2014 as favorable for Republicans, especially if they focus on beating Democrats on Obamacare and the debt.

"We need to take back the Senate and build on our House majority next November," Miller said. "No progress can be made if that objective isn't met."

Miller continued: "So I believe GOP and conservative groups interested in advancing a conservative agenda to focus their energy" on defeating vulnerable Democrats in traditionally conservative states and districts.

Democrats unified

Rothenberg said these divisions in the Republican Party -- between those seeking primary challenges and those seeking to target Democrats -- need to be worked out before the GOP can comfortably say they will keep control of the House.

"At some point, the tea party are going to really want to accomplish stuff," Rothenberg said. "And in order to accomplish stuff, they are going to have to change their views about compromise and negotiations. If to them, victory is taking over an emasculated, weak, unsuccessful Republican Party, if that is what they think victory is, then maybe they can have victory."

All of this news, has been music to many Democrats ears, many of whom believe the last three weeks -- and the Republicans fledgling poll numbers around the shutdown -- have made it less likely the those vulnerable Democrats will lose in 2014.

Before the shutdown, Jim Manley, a longtime Senate Democratic aide, said the vulnerability of Sens. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Kay Hagan of North Carolina made Democrats losing control of the Senate a possibility.

Now, he is far more bullish on his party's chances in both the Senate and House.

"I think that for the first time, in light of what has happened, I think for the first time we can honestly take a look at it and question whether it is possible" to keep control of the Senate and win the House, Manley said. "The Republican Party brand is broken and I am not sure if it can be fixed."

The key for Democrats, Manley pointed out, was their unity during the government shutdown. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi repeatedly delivered the majority of her caucus against House Republicans piecemeal plans to fund the government, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid did the same in the Senate.

"That shows me," Manley said, "that we are not scared of the tea party types like Democrats had been in elections past."