I see that other Arsenal supporters are finally attuned to the fact that Arsenal’s away form is a problem. But you know what’s really wild? Wilder than Arsenal playing like jellyfish against Everton yesterday? It’s that this has been a problem since February 2017.

Since I am the “stats guy” let me give you some stats.

From August 13, 2016 – December 31, 2016 – Arsenal were the 4th best team in the League in away games.

They played 9, won 5, drawn 2, and lost 2

They scored 20 goals (2.2 goals per game)

They conceded 9 (1 goal per game)

They picked up 17 points (1.89 per game).

Their xG is 1.8 per game

Their xGA is an awesome 0.94

Their expected points is 1.9 per game

But winter is coming.

From January 3rd on, Arsenal’s away form goes down the bog quicker than a vindaloo pizza. If you recall, Arsenal played Bournemouth on 3 January and they give up 3 goals in the first half. There’s a barnstorming 2nd half comeback but the manner of Arsenal’s capitulation is shocking. Bournemouth tore us apart and it should have set alarm bells ringing at Arsenal. It didn’t. At least not for the players, it seemed to alert the opposition.

Arsenal kicked off the month of February with a 3-1 loss to Chelsea away, 10-2 loss on aggregate to Bayern Munich, Koscielny’s achilles injury started to flare up, he also gets a red card.

Fan unrest is now growing to a head. They are showing up to matches with signs begging for Wenger to be fired at the end of the season. Wenger benches Alexis for his public outbursts, and Arsenal kick off the month of March with a 3-1 away loss to Liverpool, and the hammer blow 3-1 away loss to West Brom.

For the rest of the season, Arsenal only lose two more away games, Crystal Palace 3-0 and Tottenham 2-0. The latter could have been much worse. That was one of those games where you could see that Tottenham “wanted it more”. We are often treated to that little idiom whenever someone wants to criticize the team’s effort but there are only a handful of times that I can remember watching Arsenal where you could see it in action: that was one of them.

Arsenal win the FA Cup, Arsenal renew Wenger’s contract, and stuff really starts to spin out of control after that. From January 2017 to present, Arsenal’s away record has been abyssal. In that time, only counting Premier League away games:

Arsenal have won 13 of their last 44 Premier League away games

Arsenal have scored 64 goals (average 1.45 per game)

Arsenal have conceded 78 goals (average 1.77 per game)

Arsenal have taken just 48 points, 1.09 points per game in away games since January 2017

Arsenal have an expected goals of 56.7 (1.29 per game)

Arsenal have an expected goals against of 71.06 (1.62)

And Arsenal have an expected points of 53.09 (1.21 per game)

Here’s the deal, folks, Arsenal are a mid-table team in away games. They are not over nor under performing. They are performing exactly as expected in away games.

This spans multiple managers, players leaving, new players coming in, retirement, injuries, and about 200 different lineup changes. So, what is it then?

Well, I think there are a few things going on here. The first is that Arsenal are (this season) overperforming at home. Arsenal are +12 on expected points (32 xP versus 44 actual points) at home this season thanks to Bernd Leno’s miraculous saves percentages at the Emirates (Arsenal are +8 goals defensively, that’s-xGA 20, actual goals allowed 12).

I know that I promised not to go negative and I’m keeping that promise. I don’t see this as anything other than facts.

But my analysis of those facts is that Arsenal are simply an upper-mid-table team. And I mean that in terms of the overall quality of the squad. I like some of the individual players, some aren’t so great, but overall squad quality is fairly ok, but not near the top teams.

What happens in those cases is that teams like Watford, Everton, Leicester, etc. don’t feel like Arsenal are significantly better than them. If you’ve played football, any sport, you know what I mean. There are times in your sporting life where you face opponents who are just better than you. You know it. You may put in a brave performance, but in the end, the opposition win and you just shake their hand and move on.

What’s really worrying about this is that teams will start thinking that they can get something from Arsenal at home. I think this process has already started. Teams are much more aggressively attacking Arsenal at home, that’s why we have allowed so many shots and why Arsenal have relied so heavily on outstanding keeping to save them at home this season.

But the second part of my analysis is that there’s a slightly more worrying problem, which is best illustrated by Troy Deeney’s comments from October 2017:

“I’ve heard Wenger’s already blaming [the penalty] as the reason for why they lost. Well, I’m not going to be one to tell Mr Wenger about himself, but there’s a reason that they lost and it wasn’t because of one penalty.

“I have to watch what I say, but it’s [having] a bit of cojones, is what I’ll say. Whenever I play against Arsenal, I’ll go up and think ‘let me whack the first one and see who wants it.’

“I came on today and jumped up with Mertesacker — I didn’t even have to jump, actually — I nodded it down, the crowd gets up: ‘Yeah we’ve got somebody who can win it’, and they all just backed off.

“For me as a player, I just think ‘happy days’. That’s my strength — if you’re going to let me do my strength against you, you’re going to have a tough afternoon.

“I just think personally there’s an element of that being an equaliser for me. I know I’m not technically gifted like they are, not as quick, but if you want to fight with me, I’m gonna beat you all day. If you want to come into my world and do that, you can do that, but you’ve got to be at a level where your excellence of keeping the ball, being fast and getting in the right positions are all 10/10 because my equaliser is I’m big, strong, and I do all the ugly stuff you don’t wanna do, and I’m going to make it horrible for you.” (Emphasis mine)

Troy Deeney’s comments were ridiculed at the time (and since, every time we win or take a point and every time they lose we mock him for the “cojones” bit) and they are a bit funny because they are so.. agricultural.

But the point at the end is the key – Arsenal seem to me like a team that is caught between two worlds. We aren’t quite technically good enough to pass rings around others and we also aren’t quite robust enough to kick lumps out of others. That lack of technical quality becomes exacerbated by injuries. Once we start digging in to third string players, we shouldn’t be surprised that Everton can press them off the ball.

Similarly, I’m not going to say any names to blame and shame but that lack of fight is also evident the further you get down the pecking order. I can’t question Aaron Ramsey and Alexandre Lacazette’s commitment. Sokratis also seems like a guy willing to mix things up (even if it means he stupidly picks up a yellow card, knocking him out for the next two matches). But there is a lack of fight in a lot of the players in this team.

I will also say that what’s frustrating about all of this is that even if you’re not a really good technical team, you can at least do certain things to combat your opponent. Pressing for example. Why aren’t we pressing more? Especially in away games. This team seems custom built to be a counter attacking team. And against Tottenham earlier this season (albeit at home), we had a prime example of how we can play football in away games that will terrify opponents. Not only will be look better, but come on, that was fun to watch!

I’ve dedicated a lot of words to some pretty simple concepts so I’ll just wrap up here. I’m not having an existential crisis over Arsenal. I’m not even upset that we lost to Everton, I knew we were going to lose to Everton. I’m not mad at the players, I don’t want Emery fired, and I’m not even at all negative about this team. I’m not privy to Emery’s plans and so all I can do is armchair blaarg about what I see – just like everyone else. And I just see us as a team that still thinks it’s a technical team, but really isn’t and in the absence of that overwhelming technical quality also doesn’t have the sort of tooth and nail fight that teams like us need.

Torreira is a big miss there for sure. Sokratis will be a miss for the next two games as well. And lord only know what we are going to do when Aaron Ramsey leaves us this summer.

Qq