Boris Johnson has entered 10 Downing Street with Britain suffering from “one of the worst housing crises in the democratic world”. The state of housebuilding is “more catastrophe than crisis”, with the country blighted by “identikit estates”, “nimbyism”, and in the grip of the “big housebuilding corporations”. This may read like a manifesto from campaigners at Shelter, the housing charity. But they are actually the words of Jacob Rees-Mogg, published in a thinkpiece he co-authored just last week as he was being elevated into Boris Johnson’s cabinet.

Tumbling home ownership rates – which have collapsed to just 27% for the under-35s compared with 65% in the 1990s – have struck at the heart of a Conservative party that has traditionally championed a property-owning democracy. Meanwhile, soaring house prices– now 7.8 times average earnings in England and Wales – have left traditional Conservative home counties voters in despair at their children’s chances of getting on the property ladder.

Johnson himself acknowledges the enormity of the housing challenge – and how it resonates with both his party members and voters. In his speech to the Conservative party conference last October he said: “It is a disgraceful fact that we now have lower rates of owner occupation – for under-40s – than the French or the Germans. That reflects the failure of governments for the last 30 years to build enough housing. But it is also a massive opportunity for us Tories.”

But since taking over from Theresa May, and in sharp contrast to the £3.6bn he has pledged for deprived towns plus £2.1bn extra to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, housing has received little of the Johnson stardust.

Quick guide Boris Johnson's to-do list Show Hide A cabinet reshuffle The first task of any new PM involves rewarding some loyal allies and disappointing more. Several Johnson loyalists have had their eye on the post of chancellor, but only one can do it. A complete clearout of May’s remain-minded ministers provided plenty of opportunity to reward the Brexit believers though. Brexit The issue that will define a Johnson premiership. He has promised to rapidly renegotiate almost all of May’s departure deal, ditching the Irish backstop border guarantee policy – something that would seem a huge task over any timescale, let alone little more than 12 weeks, a fair proportion of which is taken up by a summer break. If this fails, he will be set on a no-deal departure for 31 October, and a likely huge clash with MPs. Iran If Brexit wasn’t enough, a new Johnson government must immediately take steps to make sure he doesn’t begin his time in No 10 with a slide into war. The situation in the gulf is complex, fast-moving and hugely dangerous. Johnson did not cover himself in glory as foreign secretary, especially over Iran. It will be his task to prove he has learned. Managing parliament and Tory MPs Johnson will start as PM with a working Commons majority of four, thanks to the DUP, but within weeks it is likely to be down to three if as expected the Liberal Democrats win in the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection. If this wasn’t tricky enough, a small but significant section of Tory MPs openly detest Johnson, and will not want to help him out - and with his cabinet sackings, the ‘Gaukward squad’ of former senior cabinet members set on blocking a no-deal Brexit swelled in ranks. Loosening the purse strings Such was the fiscal largesse on display from both Johnson and Jeremy Hunt during the hustings process that much as he will seek to kick any decisions towards an autumn budget, voters – especially Tory members – will be expecting both tax cuts and more spending on areas such as education and the police. Everything non-Brexit This might sound glib, but there is a lot to consider – during the three-plus years of Brexit introversion May’s government failed to properly grasp any of a series of long-term, pressing national problems: the crisis in social care; the future of the NHS; a climate emergency; the increasingly insecure future of work; a broken housing market; rampant poverty, including among many working people. This is a huge workload for any new administration. Being prime ministerial Critics might say this is Johnson’s single biggest challenge. The leadership process has shown that while he endlessly harked back to supposed successes as London mayor – an often ceremonial role with relatively few powers – Johnson was notably quieter about his period as foreign secretary. Being prime minister is like the latter, to a factor of 10 – a never-ending succession of red boxes containing vital documents, of urgent briefings, of a whole system hanging on your decisions. Johnson has a tendency to ignore advice, pluck statistics out of the air and rely on sudden, cheap glibness. Curbing these long habits will be a daily struggle - his adopting the acronym 'Dude' in his victory speech shows just how hard it is for him. Peter Walker Political correspondent

In his first speech as prime minister, Johnson talked of uniting the country, safer streets, better education and better road and rail infrastructure. Only further down the laundry list of priorities came housing. “The change I want to see is … giving millions of young people the chance to own their own home,” he said.

There are hints of big changes to stamp duty and decisions to take on help to buy, with a possible new part-rent, part-buy scheme in tow. But there are also fears he will dump the ban on “revenge evictions” pledged by May in her final months. The Housing Act had previously allowed landlords to kick out tenants, such as those who complained about living conditions, without any reason.

Few clues come from the new secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, whose appointment by Johnson came as a surprise to everyone in the housing industry. Robert Jenrick, 37, – the first cabinet minister to have been born in the 1980s - only entered parliament in 2014 and is yet to make any substantive policy announcements. But like every housing minister before, he promises more new homes.

He told the Guardian: “We will focus relentlessly on boosting supply and home ownership,” adding that “As the prime minister has made clear, we’re determined to close the opportunity gap and give millions of young people the chance to own their own homes.”

Will Johnson be any more successful at cracking housing supply issues than previous governments? Many are pinning their hopes on the man who will be a crucial aide in Johnson’s government, his new chief of staff, Sir Edward Lister.

Lister was Johnson’s righthand man in the Mayor of London’s office, and a key figure during his prime ministerial campaign. But he is also steeped in housing issues, currently on leave from his job as chairman of Homes England, the government’s self-proclaimed “housing accelerator”.

“It is very interesting that Johnson has made Eddie Lister chief of staff while he is on a break from chairman of Homes England. It means we have a great person at the heart of number 10 with a very decent knowledge of the housing challenge facing Britain,” said Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills.

Housing supply in England collapsed after the financial crisis, falling to just 124,000 net new dwellings in 2012/13, woefully short of the 300,000 homes a year the government itself says are required. In recent years (Lister joined Homes England in 2016) supply has jumped, hitting 222,000 in 2017/18. But data for 2019 shows that new housing starts have faltered, dropping 9% in the first quarter of the year.

Central to the recovery in new-build supply in recent years has been the Conservative’s flagship help to buy programme. Between launch in 2013 and December 2018 it lent £11.7bn to 211,000 buyers, spurring housebuilding (and profits) at the major builders, but has been blamed for inflating prices.

Currently there are plans to restrict the scheme in two years and close it entirely in 2023. Johnson knows that if the property market cracks after a no-deal Brexit – and the Office for Budget Responsibility predicts a 10% fall in the event of a disorderly exit – then help to buy’s liabilities could pose what the National Audit Office said is a “significant market risk” for the government, because the taxpayer effectively owns a stake in every house bought under the scheme. But if Johnson pulls the plug on the scheme, he risks alienating young buyers as well as the giant builders traditionally close to the Conservative party.

More likely will be measures to prop up the housing market in the wake of a no-deal Brexit, with reports of a £3.8bn giveaway on stamp duty, cutting it to zero on homes below £500,000.

First-time buyers and home-movers could also be helped by suggestions that stamp duty will be shifted from the buyer to the seller. But while it might be a vote-winner among the young, critics say it faces a rebellion from older sellers who will be deterred from putting their homes on the market and downsizing.

Another test for Johnson will be whether he proceeds with Theresa May’s surprise decision in April to scrap so-called “revenge evictions” under section 21 of the Housing Act.

Even campaigners at Shelter were taken aback, hailing it as an “outstanding victory for tenants”. In an open letter to Boris Johnson this week, Shelter’s chief executive, Polly Neate, pleaded for the ban to survive a Johnson administration.

She said: “Your predecessor took a vital step towards improving the lives of England’s 11 million private renters when she unveiled plans to abolish ‘no-fault’ evictions. You can make these plans a reality by seeing through the crucial legislation a Conservative government has already committed to.”

There will also be pleas to improve not just the supply of housing, but of homes that are actually affordable to buy, or available for rent from councils and housing associations.

As mayor of London Johnson claimed he out-built Labour, with more than 100,000 affordable homes. But critics say the definition of what constitutes an affordable home was changed, so figures aren’t comparable. Johnson also cut targets for affordable housing, and frequently approved luxury developments in the city with only limited affordable homes.

In the giant redevelopment of the Mount Pleasant former post office site in Islington he accused opponents of “bourgeois nimbyism”. He approved the project – despite local authority objections – with just 98 of the 681 homes deemed as affordable. However, a housing policy that ignores affordability will have a negative impact on a Johnson premiership.

Just 6,000 new homes at an affordable social rent were let in the whole of England in 2017/18, compared to nearly 40,000 in 2010/11, and shared ownership/affordable homes for purchase have also declined. Britain’s housing market, as the government’s own white paper in 2017 admitted, remains broken.