Three things Portugal must accomplish in its tournament warm-up matches

The Seleção have five friendlies to find adequate solutions (if not total remedies) to some of their most vexing problems before the European Championship begins. Lots of young talent is available, but is Euro 2016 too soon for Portugal to take full advantage? Could this finally be our year? Can Ronaldo lead the Seleção to glory? Join Nathan Motz as he discusses some of the key decision making points that Fernando Santos will encounter in the run up to Euro 2016.

1. Make the right decision concerning the arrangement of our attacking trident

The 2015/16 season is yet again a case of “same song different verse” for Portugal when considering the No9 role. Young strikers André Silva and Gonçalo Paciência are not ready. Not for a tournament of this magnitude. Thus Portugal and especially Fernando Santos will be required to make the crucial decision regarding where the team’s best player and captain, Cristiano Ronaldo, should play. This decision will consequently resolve other questions about which assortment of strikers/wingers to bring to the tournament and where they will fall in the pecking order.

There are three possible variations of our 4-3-3 to be tested:

A “fluid-front-three” in which the forwards change positions at random

I like this particular arrangement because Ronaldo does indeed thrive when he is not restricted to one role or one side of the pitch. He would favour the left wing of course, since that is where he could work alongside Fábio Coentrão. Ronaldo shows a similar inclination to work on the left side of the pitch for Madrid where Marcelo’s overlapping runs pull the opposition’s defence out of shape, allowing him to exploit the space. Cutting Ronaldo loose to wander about creates confusion in the minds of defenders about who exactly is responsible for marking him. Ronaldo is as proficient as he is unmerciful in his ability to exploit any space negligently afforded to him.

But what pair of attackers can we use to fill the other two positions in our forward trident? More importantly, which pair of forwards are versatile enough to alter between the wing and central striker positions? Based on club form and prior experience with the Seleção, Rafa Silva, Nani, and Bernardo Silva are the best forwards we have to play alongside Ronaldo, but I have doubts about how well they would execute the No9’s responsibilities, even periodiocally.

Rafa Silva, Nani, and Bernardo Silva lack the strength and stature to duel with top-tier centrebacks, and none of them are consummate finishers. Their skillsets strongly favor their utilization as ancillary players, marauding counter-attackers that provide the killer pass, not apply the killer finish. Their respective clubs, Braga, Fenerbahçe, and Monaco, have never asked them to play with their backs to goal as a traditional striker often must, which seems to preclude the notion of asking them to perform this role for the Seleção.

Likewise, consider one of our strikers attempting to excel as a winger. Portugal have a grand total of two natural strikers who might find themselves in Santos final squad for Euro 2016: Nélson Oliveira and Éder. Neither are great finishers, but they are both even worse candidates to play the role of a traditional winger, especially Éder. To his credit, the Guinea-Bisseau born striker has scored twice for Lille since his loan move from Swansea City in January, but his role for Portugal will not be the same in a fluid-front-three attacking schematic. He will be asked to rotate out onto the wing where speed and technical skill in 1-v-1 encounters are more important than brute strength and hold-up play. Suffice it to say, Éder is not tailor-made for that particular assignment.

Hence, if we play a fluid front three, the only player who has the right blend of physical and technical skills to move about the attacking end of our 4-3-3 is Ronaldo. The others have appreciable limitations, so much so that it might be better to implement Ronaldo as our permanent No9.

Ronaldo as a permanent No9

Fielding Ronaldo as a centre forward might then seem to be a decent option given the aforementioned disadvantages of using a fluid-front-three. In the not so distant past, Ronaldo has been employed as a striker for both Real Madrid and Portugal, so it is not an entirely foreign role for him either. The prospect of putting Ronaldo as close to the opposition goal as possible is tantalizing, I admit. Ronaldo has 40 goals and 13 assists with two more months left in the club season. Because of these reasons, it is my personal opinion that Santos will at least attempt to play Ronaldo as our lone striker at some point during the pre-tournament friendlies if not during the tournament proper.

As I’ve written about in the past, isolating Ronaldo at the top of the formation introduces problems with our ability to creatively link midfield to our front three. This is especially true when playing against top-tier competition such as Germany or Spain. These teams simply (and rightly) determine that their best bet is to cut-off midfield support. Once the battle is won in midfield, Ronaldo’s influence is greatly diminished and has often (e.g. Portugal v Spain 2010 WC) forced our two wingers to retreat in aid of the defence, asphyxiating our offensive threat entirely.

One crucial point that I will concede is that for this tournament our midfield will be stronger than in years past. So much so that it might allow us more flexibility in terms of where to play Ronaldo. We also have unknown qualities in Bernardo Silva and Rafa Silva. I say unknown because we cannot be certain how well these players will perform in a tournament of this magnitude. If one or both of them were to break out as a dynamic playmaker, this would give Santos much more freedom to utilize Ronaldo as a striker.

I have fought against the notion of using Ronaldo as a No9 for many years now, but I am not simply fighting on principle. If our midfielders and supporting wingers are talented enough, Ronaldo could still be used to great effect as a centre forward for the Seleção. But I need to see strong evidence in these five friendlies that we can still creatively build attacks without as much influence from Ronaldo.

Playing Éder/Nélson Oliveira as a static centre forward

I do not wish to insult either of these two players, but it must be said that the fact either are even eligible for a call-up offers an indicting perspective on the state of Portugal’s striker situation. Of the two, I favor Éder and I think Santos will too, especially if he continues scoring for Lille.

Having said that I have never been particularly enamored with Éder’s attacking instinct. What I mean by “attacking instinct” is that special sense that all good strikers have about being in the right place at the right time. The cliché often used is “having a nose for goal.” Luís Suarez has it. Ronaldo has it. I would argue that André Silva has it too. But Éder, as far as I can tell, does not have it. To be fair, injuries have plagued him this season, but even for Portugal Éder often plays with the appearance of one who is overwhelmed by the prospect of exploiting the weaknesses of a defence.

In fact, when I compare his play to that of some of Portugal’s former strikers, say Hugo Almeida, I see a rather large disparity between him and Éder in terms of the number of chances they create. Almeida often found the right positions, made the right runs, held up the ball well, and was in position to score with relative frequency. Regrettably, Almeida was an absolutely dreadful finisher. Éder is by no means any better at hitting the target, and does not possess an intuition for finding goalscoring positions that Almeida did. He is clearly not a “troublemaker”, a rogue and unpredictable nuisance that opposing defences have to be constantly aware of at all times.

Oliveira at this point is a back-up option that I hope we will not have to use. At 24, there is still hope for Oliveira’s career, but despite scoring 9 goals for Championship club Nottingham Forest, he is simply not up to the standard that Portugal requires at this time.

There is still some value of fielding a true No9 such as Éder in a fixed role. It is the style with which Portugal are most familiar, there would not be as much of a physical mismatch with the opposition’s centrebacks, and Ronaldo can still be given plenty of freedom to roam. But can our strikers really do the job? Will Éder or Nélson be able to finish off that perfect cross from Ronaldo after he’s just stormed 50 yards up the pitch?

Over the next five matches, we need to choose the correct attacking structure and the specific players to implement it. No single option stands out, but if Santos gets the formula right, Portugal will cause any defence problems.

2. Complement João Moutinho in midfield

Usually my personal preferences regarding which players should make the starting eleven are based solely on merit, but in the case of Moutinho I will just say that we need him. His form at Monaco this season has not been bad by any means, but you could argue that there are several other players who might claim to be more deserving of the box-to-box role that he currently executes for Portugal. Renato Sanches, João Mário, and Adrien have all had excellent seasons. You might argue that Sanches is better suited for the holding midfield role, but then what to do with William Carvalho and Danilo Pereira? And how do you not play André Gomes? But at the end of the day there are only three midfield slots available and Moutinho has to get one of them. He is one of those few players who is so uniquely suited to Portugal’s style of play that his club form is nearly irrelevant. The question in midfield is about which two players must take the field alongside him.

The simple answer is whichever two fit seamlessly into Portugal's defence-to-attack tempo and develop the best on-field chemistry with Moutinho. Each midfield position has a specific role. Moutinho is Portugal’s work-horse and possesses a distinctive counter-attacking intelligence. But against more physical opposition, he (and most of Portugal’s other midfielders) can be gradually worn down throughout the course of 90 minutes. For this reason, I will suggest that he needs a more physically imposing counterpart.

Renato Sanches, William, Danilo, and André Gomes all fit this description, but at this point I favor Danilo. With all due respect to Sanches, Danilo is stronger and has more experience. What Renato Sanches has done at the age of 18 is sensational, and he is destined to become the cornerstone of our midfield. But as is the case with many talented Portuguese youngsters (Rúben Neves anyone?), this tournament has come just a few years too soon for him. As I have written before, what separates Danilo from William is overall intensity and the ability to rampage up the field, Yaya Toure-style. By comparison, William has not consistently demonstrated that kind of vigour or technical ability.

The final midfield berth needs to be set aside for a player that can focus slightly more on supporting the attack. We need a maestro with a higher creative IQ to sit just behind our attacking trident. This player must be able to do more than just distribute. He needs to possess the ability to run with the ball at pace, drawing defenders in and creating space behind them in the process.

Our best choices for this role are André Gomes, João Mário, and Adrien Silva. The reason why I choose André Gomes is not because he is statistically the best. It is partly because he plays against tougher opposition in La Liga, and partly because of his physical stature. But it is also because of his inclination to exploit that bit of space just outside the box. Portugal’s strength is on the wing (especially if Ronaldo is not our central striker) and Gomes is exactly the type of player who will become a target for a perfect square ball from one of our wingers. Adrien Silva is a close second because he has also demonstrated an ability and willingness to hit the target from that soft spot on the edge of the penalty area.

3. Build a formidable defence

We have the opportunity in these friendlies to face different modes of attacking threats. In England and Belgium, our defence will encounter talented individuals such as Harry Kane, Wayne Rooney, Romelu Lukaku, and Eden Hazard. Conversely, Norway and Bulgaria will remain compact and try to hit us on the counter, a strategy that has created plenty of complications for the Seleção in the past.

Every statistical analysis currently available reveals that teams who defend well have the best odds of winning. While sorting out our issues in attack may seem to be most important, it is actually far more essential that we defend well. When fit, Pepe is still a top class defender provided that he can remain in control of his emotions. The real question is whether Santos is going to give José Fonte an opportunity, or stick with the age and experience of Carvalho or Bruno Alves.

Portugal also has several decent fullbacks to choose from in Cedric and Vierinha, but it is Fábio Coentrão who will make the most difference to this squad, both in defence and attack. Eliseu, Raphael Guerreiro, and Ricardo Pereira may also factor into the equation, but for all six of these players there is a common liability: every one of them is prone to positional indiscipline. Many of them are dual-role players and have also featured for their clubs on the wing at times this season or in the past. Regardless, they will be required to tailor their offensive exploits to the demands of the occasion. Far more discernment (and restraint) will be needed against England than Bulgaria, for example.

But a good defence does not rest on the back-four alone. It begins with a strong midfield, and fortunately we are blessed with an immensity of talent and depth in this sector of the pitch. One criticism I will make of Fernando Santos’ Portugal is that our midfielders need to leverage possession more effectively. Patience in possession not only supports the evolution of our attacking movements, but decreases reliance on our defence. In these friendlies, we have to grade our defenders and midfielders based on how well they control a match with intelligent ball movement, not simply by how well they tackle. There is good news for us defensively in that we have allowed only 8 goals in 11 matches dating back to November 2014. But we still need to be able to score goals too, and our fullbacks are essential in that regard.

And in the end we must be reminded that football, though complicated by a myriad of trifling details, is really a simple game in concept. Put the ball in the net more than your opponent, and you win. The factors for Portugal that will decide their ability to effect that outcome will be researched and enhanced over the next five friendlies beginning 25 March against Bulgaria.

Força Seleção.

by Nathan Motz