Amid all the talk of a banking stocks bubble, the big four have collectively managed only a marginal rise over the past 12 months – and have been decisively outperformed by the regional Bendigo Bank and Bank of Queensland.

And if the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority takes measures to cool the overheating Sydney property market, the big four could continue to underperform regional banks as they are most exposed to the Sydney market, Macquarie says.

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In the year to May 15, which is the period used in Macquarie's analysis, Westpac's share price has fallen 3.6 per cent, ANZ has risen 0.5 per cent, NAB has lifted 4.5 per cent and Commonwealth Bank has gained 5.4 per cent.

Overall, the big four have risen just 1.7 per cent over the past year, after all of their shares were heavily sold off in recent weeks.