It's that time of year when we draw a breath and think back to our accomplishments over the past year. Framing our lives in periods of 365 days seems natural. That's unfortunate, because sometimes it's necessary to choose another frame of reference if you want to make sense of the world. So let's change our perspective and see if it makes a difference.

On this day two years ago, the headlines were full of hope for Afghanistan. Aussie troops had just pulled out of the provincial capital of Tarin Kowt​ and our last commander, Wade Stolhard, was upbeat. He can still be heard, on a defence video, insisting the Afghan soldiers were effective, ready, and in the lead conducting independent operations. Have a listen. You'll see how otherwise sensible, intelligent people can get sucked in by what they want to believe.

Australian and Afghan troops race to evacuate the civilian victims of a Taliban roadside bomb in Oruzgan Province, Afghanistan.

We know he was speaking rubbish because a United States think-tank has now confirmed that rebels effectively control the province. The Institute for the Study of War insists that, with the single exception of the provincial capital, the territory outside the wire is completely dominated by the Taliban. The report suggests not only do the militants "likely exercise de facto control in the vicinity of the provincial capital" but also the central government has no chance of recovering territory. It faces too many internal threats.

The situation is now so dire that the government is reduced to boasting about its ability to withdraw. It recently trumpeted a "complex operation" by four special forces helicopters flying under cover of darkness to evacuate a beleaguered outpost in Khas Uruzgan​. The mission was successful and reported to sound like a triumph, yet it seems unlikely that the Taliban were fooled. They occupied the village.