Joggers are pictured running next to a deserted Tower of London. The UK has had 3,269 confirmed coronavirus cases since the outbreak was identified. (Getty Images)

The coronavirus’ death rate may be lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated, research suggests.

With the virus virtually unheard of at the start of the year, experts have been racing to uncover how dangerous it really is and the patients most likely to succumb to complications.

At the beginning of March, the WHO announced the virus had killed 3.4% of patients worldwide, which other experts called a likely “overestimate”.

To learn more, scientists from The University of Hong Kong looked at the 48,557 confirmed cases that had arisen as of 29 February in the Chinese city Wuhan, where the outbreak emerged.

They found the average death rate among patients under 30 was 0.3%, rising to 0.5% for those between 30 and 59, and 2.6% for people aged 60 or above.

Overall, they calculated the fatality rate to be 1.4%.

Although “promising”, experts have stressed estimating death rates in the midst of an outbreak is “fraught with difficulties”.

A woman is pictured wearing a mask next to a banner reading: 'Hold on, thank you for everything' in front of the Geneva University Hospitals on 20 March. Switzerland has had more than 4,100 confirmed cases. (Getty Images) More

Latest coronavirus news, updates and advice

Live: Follow all the latest updates from the UK and around the world

Fact-checker: The number of COVID-19 cases in your local area

Explained: Symptoms, latest advice and how it compares to the flu

The coronavirus is thought to have emerged at a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan at the end of last year.

It has since spread to more than 160 countries, across every inhabited continent.

Since the outbreak began, more than 246,000 cases have been confirmed, of whom over 86,000 have “recovered”, according to John Hopkins University data.

Cases have been plateauing in China since the end of February, with Europe now the epicentre of the pandemic.

Italy alone has had more than 41,000 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths.

In the UK, 3,269 people have tested positive for the virus, of whom 145 have died.

Globally, the death toll has exceeded 10,000.

‘This is a very important new piece of data’

The new coronavirus was officially identified as the cause of an outbreak of illness in Wuhan on 9 January.

In an attempt to combat the infection, scientists quickly got to work uncovering how severe the infection could be.

Using “public and published information”, the Hong Kong scientists looked at the 48,557 cases in Wuhan, of whom 2,169 died.

Based on this, the scientists calculated the overall “symptomatic” death rate in Wuhan at the start of the outbreak to range from 0.9%–to-2.1%, averaging at 1.4%.

Compared to those aged between 30 and 59 , the patients aged 60 or over were on average 5.1 times more likely to die “after developing symptoms”, according to results published in the journal Nature Medicine.

Patients without symptoms would likely have gone unreported and not been included in the analysis.

“This is a detailed epidemiological analysis and the results are cautiously encouraging, in that they indicate a lower fatality rate from [the coronavirus] than has thus far been estimated,” said Professor Robin May from the University of Birmingham.

“Using patient data from the original epicentre of the outbreak, Wuhan, they show an overall death rate of around 1.4% of symptomatic cases, which is lower than previous estimates.

“They also show that mortality rates appear to be very low for people under 50 (around 0.3-0.5%) which is, again, promising.”

He stressed, however, the same results may not apply to other areas of the pandemic.

Death rates can vary according to the strength of the country’s health service.

“One important caveat, is this study is based primarily on data from Wuhan and therefore does not necessarily reflect mortality rates that may be seen in other areas of the world,” said Professor May.

Story continues