It’s fair to say Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg hedges his bets, but he also sees control of the U.S. Senate coming down to just five states, four of which are held by Democrats.

The GOP has to win just two of the five to snag a Senate majority, according to Rothenberg. He predicts South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana will also turn red.

While things could still change — and national polls continue to show an environment that may produce a substantial GOP wave in the House and Senate — the Senate battle has boiled down to two reliably red states and three swing states.

Here’s how he breaks it down: