QB Rank, Week 13: Why Cam Newton belongs as MVP front-runner

Steven Ruiz | USATODAY

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Believe it or not, there are still people who do not consider Cam Newton the front-runner for 2015 NFL MVP.

Arguments against Newton's candidacy typically hit on two points: The Carolina Panthers defense is one of the best units in the league, and Newton’s passing statistics do not measure up to those of Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton.

These are legitimate arguments and can be backed up in the numbers. But a deeper dive puts Newton’s contributions to the NFL’s only undefeated team in a more positive light.

Let’s start with the defense, which some will point to as the biggest reason the Panthers are 12-0. Carolina ranks third in the NFL in total defense and second in defensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders.

But the unit has had moments of vulnerability, during which the onus has fallen on the offense to win games. The Panthers have won a league-best five games when allowing 23 or more points (NFL teams are averaging 23.1 points a game). That’s more than Brady’s New England Patriots, Palmer’s Arizona Cardinals and Dalton’s Cincinnati Bengals.

So while Carolina’s defense has been great, the offense hasn’t exactly had a free ride to 12-0.

The Panthers defense is allowing 20.2 points a game. That’s marginally better than New England (20.6) and worse than Arizona (19.3) and Cincinnati (16.3).

So why is it that the defense argument only comes up when discussing Newton’s candidacy?

It probably has something to do with Newton’s passing stats. He ranks sixth in touchdown passes (25) but 15th in passer rating (93.2), 18th in passing yards (2,797) and 29th in completion percentage (58.4).

Those numbers do not reflect an MVP, but they also lack context. Most significantly, the stats do not account for his supporting cast. Newton’s top two wide receivers are Ted Ginn Jr., who struggled to get on the field in Arizona last season, and Devin Funchess, a raw rookie thrust into the lineup after Kelvin Benjamin suffered a season-ending anterior cruciate ligament tear.

The two are capable of big plays but are unreliable on a play-to-play basis.

Devin Funchess (24%) and Ted Ginn (18.6%) have 2nd- and 4th-highest drop rates among NFL WRs, per @PFF. Yesterday didn't help. — Joe Person (@josephperson) December 7, 2015

Ginn and Funchess are weighing down Newton’s stats to a staggering degree. Take a look at Newton's stat line this season when throwing to anyone but Ginn and Funchess:

And it’s not like he’s just relying on Pro Bowl TE Greg Olsen to pad those stats either. Take Olsen’s target out of the equation as well, and Newton’s stats actually get better.

Those numbers are on throws to Jerricho Cotchery, Corey Brown, Brenton Bersin, Ed Dickson and his running backs out of the backfield. That’s not exactly the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

Cam isn’t the only MVP candidate throwing to a depleted receiving corps these days. Brady has gotten a taste of what Newton is working with over the last few weeks after losing Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski in recent weeks. Since Lewis went down, Brady’s stats have declined significantly. He has completed just 54.8% of his passes and thrown nine touchdowns and four interceptions.

Over that same time, Newton, playing with a comparable supporting cast, is completing 67.2% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and one interception.

Now imagine what Newton's stat line might look like with Cincinnati’s A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu or Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. Maybe he’d be putting up numbers comparable to the ones Palmer and Dalton are producing.

This doesn't even factor in Newton’s contributions on the ground. He’s tied for fourth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns, and 38% of his attempts have resulted in a first down – that’s best in the league.

Carolina is third in the league in rushing, and Newton is a big source of their success. Take away Newton’s runs, and Panthers running backs are averaging a below-league average 4.0 yards per carry. Even when he’s not carrying the ball, Newton commands attention in the running game, making things easier on his backs. While teams with traditional pocket passers are playing a man down in the run game, Newton allows the Panthers to play 11-on-11. When Jonathan Stewart attempts a run from a shotgun formation – where Newton is a threat to keep it on a read-option – he averages 5.1 yards a carry. He averages only 3.2 yards on attempts from under center with no read-option threat.

Newton is the man behind the Panthers’ success in the passing game, but he’s also the driving force on the ground. And according to offensive coordinator Mike Shula, Newton plays a big role in deciding what plays are being run:

Panthers offensive coordinator Mike Shula says Cam Newton is calling an audible 30 to 40 percent of the time... https://t.co/4zlsVQa7S5 — David Newton (@DNewtonespn) November 9, 2015

More than any player in the league, Newton is his team’s offense – a unit that ranks third in scoring at 31.1 points per game. He's making the players around him better and making winning plays in crunch time for the team with the league's best record. What more is required of an MVP?

On to this week's rankings...

Brady is losing his grip on the No. 1 spot after a two-interception performance in New England’s loss to Philadelphia. He was without his top two targets in Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman and was hit 13 times, but we expect Brady to elevate the players around him. That didn’t happen on Sunday.

There’s not a better deep-ball thrower than Carson Palmer, who tore up the Rams secondary Sunday with a number of bombs down the sideline. Palmer is playing with a much better supporting cast than Brady or Newton, but that shouldn’t take away from how good he has been all season long.

Newton may not have the efficiency stats of a great pocket passer, but he’s been making big throws from the pocket, which is a testament to his development. The game-winning score against the Saints was a great example of his improved play from the pocket. He looks to his left, drawing the safety to that side and opening up a throw up the right seam:

Big Ben is playing the best football of his career. He has never been more decisive or more accurate. And for only the second time this season, he played a clean game with no turnovers against the Colts.

Rodgers might have played his best game of the season in Detroit on Thursday. He showed off all his tools: Smarts, accuracy, mobility and arm strength. And he needed every bit of his arm talent on the Hail Mary that won the game.

Pete Carroll likes his quarterback to be a distributor. Wilson has played that role perfectly these last three weeks. He’s not exactly making difficult throws, but he’s been nearly perfect on the throws he has made.

After a bit of a slump on deep throws in the middle of the season, Dalton was on point against the Browns. He and A.J. Green connected for a few deep perimeter throws against a woeful Browns secondary. When Dalton’s deep ball is on point, the Bengals are extremely difficult to defend.

Brees doesn't put up elite performances week-to-week anymore, but he’ll remind everyone just how good he is every so often. He did that against a good Panthers defense on Sunday, making big throws downfield throughout the game.

As expected, Rivers and his offensive line fell back down to earth against Denver’s defense. Rivers took four sacks and was hit 11 times. It’s hard to play well under that type of pressure with a group of receivers who struggle to create separation.

It’s basically Eli and Odell Beckham Jr., against the world these days. The Giants don’t have a running game and the other receivers cannot be relied on to make even the simplest catches. Against the Jets, Manning compiled a 129.9 passer rating when targeting Beckham and a 54.3 passer rating when targeting anyone else.

THE REST OF THE PACK:

11. Matthew Stafford, Lions

12. Alex Smith, Chiefs

13. Jay Cutler, Bears

14. Derek Carr, Raiders

15. Tyrod Taylor, Bills

16. Matt Ryan, Falcons

17. Blake Bortles, Jaguars

18. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers

19. Marcus Mariota, Titans

20. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets

21. Sam Bradford, Eagles

22. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

23. Kirk Cousins, Redskins

24. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins

25. Brian Hoyer, Texans

26. Blaine Gabbert, 49ers

27. Matt Hasselbeck, Colts

28. Brock Osweiler, Broncos

29. Johnny Manziel, Browns

30. Case Keenum, Rams

31. Matt Cassel, Cowboys

32. Matt Schaub, Ravens

Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are getting better as the season progresses. The two rookie quarterbacks should be the front-runners for offensive rookie of the year – a race that will likely come down to the final game. Last week, they matched each other with similar throws; this week, it was the plays made with their legs that were most impressive.

Against the Jaguars, Mariota pulled off the longest run of the season by any quarterback:

And Winston executed off what might be the most impressive run by any signal-caller this season to convert a third-and-19:

BEST THROW OF THE WEEK

Even at 38, Brady is still improving his game. He has worked on improving his mobility, and the effort is clearly paying off.

WORST THROW OF THE WEEK

As good as Newton has become, he'll miss an open receiver every now and then. This throw to a wide open Corey Brown would have been a touchdown if Newton had hit the mark.

Follow Steven Ruiz on Twitter @theStevenRuiz.