Scott Gleeson

USA TODAY Sports

USA TODAY Sports analyzes the biggest story lines for the 2016-17 college basketball season in its Starting Five series. This week: Which undefeated team falls next?

As conference play starts up there are but a few undefeated teams left in college hoops. Previously unbeaten No. 2 UCLA lost on Wednesday thanks to a three-pointer from Oregon's Dillon Brooks.

Two of the five remaining teams without a loss meet Saturday in a premier New Year's Eve showdown (1 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1), as defending national champion Villanova (13-0) travels to Omaha to take on Creighton (13-0) in a matchup between the Big East's best teams. The Bluejays have been one of the young season's biggest surprises and figure to give the Wildcats a tough test on a sure-to-be-raucous CenturyLink Center home court.

Of the remaining undefeated teams, here's an outlook on how they've excelled and when they could be dealt their first loss (all stats as of Thursday morning):

No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (13-0)

► Why they started hot: The Wildcats have simply found ways to win, starting with a three-point victory against Purdue (Nov. 14), a narrow escape against Notre Dame (Dec. 10) and finally a victory again an unexpectedly tough DePaul on Wednesday. The formula has been what it usually is for Jay Wright's teams: Great guard play and hot shooting (50.4% to rank 12th nationally).

Josh Hart (20.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.5 apg) is playing like an All-American and has seized a bigger role in the post-Ryan Arcidiacono era, and newcomers Eric Paschall (Fordham transfer) and freshman Donte DiVincenzo have fit in nicely. Remember, Villanova lost key parts from its title team. Yet this reshaped cast has developed a similarly title-ready identity.

► Loss forecast: Obviously, playing on the road against the likely top Big East challenger in front of 17,000-plus fans adds to the difficulty in remaining undefeated. If Villanova survives Creighton, it doesn't get any easier — next up is Butler, on the road, on Jan. 4 — although returning home helps in games vs. Marquette (Jan. 7) and No. 17 Xavier (Jan. 10).

No. 4 Baylor Bears (12-0)

► Why they started hot: More than anything, Baylor has been efficient, ranking in the top 10 in field goal percentage (50.6% from the floor) and defensive scoring margin (ninth, limiting opponents to 58.7 points a game). Scott Drew's team takes good care of the ball, with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.55, and that's a large credit to point guard Manu Lecomte (11.6 ppg, 5.4 apg). Meanwhile, Johnathan Motley (16.0 ppg, 8.7 rpg) has asserted himself as a key in the frontcourt.

► Loss forecast: The Bears were impressive during non-conference season — beating Oregon, Virginia Commonwealth, Michigan State, Louisville and Xavier — but keeping that momentum going in a rigorous Big 12 slate won't be easy. It gets tough right away, with a matchup on the road at Oklahoma on Friday. Home games vs. Iowa State (Jan. 4) and Oklahoma State (Jan. 7) are easier — if there is such a luxury in the Big 12.

No. 6 Gonzaga Bulldogs (13-0)

► Why they started hot: Nigel Williams-Goss (14.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.8 apg). The transfer from Washington has given Mark Few a crafty point guard to steer the offense, and he has been a perfect fit. Also, good health has been big, and 7-footer Przemek Karnowski (11.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg) has found a rhythm in the post. One key stat: Gonzaga is fourth nationally in field goal percentage defense, limiting opponents to 36.1% shooting. Yes, defense.

► Loss forecast: The obvious answer here is Jan. 14 against Saint Mary's, a viable WCC challenger that beat Gonzaga twice last season en route to the title. But if the 'Zags — who moved past Pepperdine 92-62 on Thursday night — take their foot off the gas, three consecutive road games in early January — at Pacific (on Saturday), San Francisco (Jan. 5) and Portland (Jan. 7) — could do them in.

No. 9 Creighton Bluejays (13-0)

► Why they started hot: The revival of Kansas State transfer Marcus Foster (18.8 ppg) has much to do with the Bluejays' strong start, but this has been part of a long plan to get back to elite status for coach Greg McDermott, who guided Creighton to success when his son, Doug, was the best player in college basketball. The offense has been spectacular this season; the 'Jays are averaging 90 points a game and rank second nationally in field goal percentage (54%). Maurice Watson Jr. leads the nation in assists with 9.1 a game.

► Loss forecast: Luckily, the Bluejays draw Villanova at home. This will be two teams with fantastic backcourts, so the team that excels in the frontcourt could come out on top. Creighton's 7-footer, Justin Patton (12.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg), should pose matchup problems for Villanova. If Creighton wins, two road games (Jan. 4 at St. John's and Jan. 7 at Providence) are on tap.

HIGHLIGHTS: REMAINING UNDEFEATED TEAMS