Hailed by Michael Salfino (TheAthletic, FiveThirtyEight, and The Wall Street Journal) for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” The Prospect Digest Handbook has become a mainstay for baseball enthusiasts, minor league aficionados, and championship fantasy general managers. Pick up your print version here and your eBook version here!

______________________________________________________________________________

1. Luis Robert, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55 60 60 45 55 70

Background: Committed to a full-blown rebuild – finally – the White Sox pulled the trigger and dealt away the best pitcher in franchise history when they agreed to send ace southpaw Chris Sale to the Red Sox for a package of four prospects (Michael Kopech, Yoan Moncada, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz). The date: December 6th, 2016. A little more than five months later the club made the second most important move towards their rebuild: they handed Cuban star, fresh off of a .401/.526/.687 showing – at the age of 18 – in the Cuban National Series, Luis Robert a $26 million. The toolsy, wide receiver-sized center fielder promptly dominated the Dominican Summer League the following year when he slugged .310/.491/.536 with eight doubles, one triple, and three homeruns. After that the front office took the training wheels off. And, well, Robert struggled. He quickly moved through the South Atlantic League, but struggled during his stint in High Class A – which was undoubtedly hindered by a month long stint on the disabled list. Regardless, though, nothing could have prepared anyone for the massive, wildly successful breakout last season. Robert ripped through the Carolina League, battered Class AA, the toughest challenge for a prospect, and continued to drop bombs in 47 games in the International League. He finished the year with an aggregate .328/.376/.624 with 31 doubles, 11 triples, 32 homers, and 36 stolen bases. The 30/30/30 club.

Scouting Report: With respect to his work in Class AA last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters to post a DRC+ between 123 and 133 in the Southern League (min. 200 PA): Joc Pederson, Mat Davidson, Chris Young, Josh Lowe, Dustin Peterson, Jordan Schafer, and Luis Robert.

And it should be noted that: only two players posted below 8% walk rates (Peterson and Robert).

Now let’s look at his work in Class AAA:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-olds to post a DRC+ between 110 and 120 in the International League (min. 200 PA): Jose Ramirez, Melvin Upton, Jose Tabata, Ryan Sweeney, and Luis Robert.

And, again, it should be noted that Robert owns the worst strikeout and walk rates.

Let’s break Robert down: he’s a five-tool player – above-average or better tools across the board. That’s known. But his production, while good, was not great last season – let alone elite. There’s a chance for a 55-hit tool, 60-power, 60-speed, 55-defense. The bat speed is incredible and the power/speed combination separates him from the rest of the group. Do I think he becomes a perennial All-Star? Yes. Do I think he becomes a transcendent superstar along the lines of a Mike Trout, which seems to be the comp being thrown around frequently? I think that’s far less of a lock. It could happen, but I think the odds aren’t quite what everyone makes them out to be. I would put his ceiling around the Rafael Devers / Ozzie Albies 2019 production with more stolen bases. Something along the lines of .310/.370/.550. Per FanGraphs data, Robert’s average exit velocity, 90 mph, was tied for the 56th best mark and his peak exit velocity, 111 mph, tied for the ninth best.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

2. Andrew Vaughn, 1B

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 60 55 30 60 50 60

Background: The stocky, broad-shouldered slugger was already a star long before his days with the California Golden Bears. Vaughn, who measures in at six feet and 214 pounds, earned MVP honors by slugging a three-run homerun in the championship game for the 15-U Team USA National club in 2013. The Santa Rosa, California, native would continue to dominate during his time in high school as well, posting a career .380 batting average to go along with 29 doubles, three triples, and one homerun while whiffing only 15 times. He also showed some intriguing potential on the bump too: he finished his prep career with a 2.06 ERA to go along with 166 punch outs. Vaughn continued to swing an impressive stick during his freshman year with Cal, batting .349/.414/.555 with seven doubles, one triple, and 12 homeruns in 54 games for former Manager David Esquer. He also made 10 brief appearances on the mound, posting a 4-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in eight innings of work. Vaughn earned Pac-12 Freshman of the Year and Freshman All-American (NCBWA, Baseball America, Perfect Game/Rawlings). He also appeared in 19 games for Team USA, batting .242/.320/.364 in 66 at bats. His production skyrocketed into another stratosphere during his sophomore campaign: in 54 contests he slugged a whopping .402/.531/.819 with 14 doubles and 23 homeruns to go along with a videogame-esque 18-to-44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And he – once again – earned significant time for Team USA during the summer, though his production cratered. In 49 at bats he hit .224/.316/.367. Last season Vaughn’s production declined ever-so-slightly: he batted .374/.539/.704 with 14 doubles and 15 homeruns to go along with a 33-to-60 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 52 games. Chicago made the slugging first baseman the third overall pick last June. After a three-game cameo in the Arizona Summer League, Vaughn split the remainder of his debut between Kannapolis and Winston-Salem. He hit an aggregate .278/.384/.449 with 17 doubles and six homeruns between all three stops.

Scouting Report: Here’s what I wrote prior to the draft last June:

“Let’s take a look back at his historic 2018 campaign. Consider the following:

Let’s continue…

Of those aforementioned six, three of them walked at least 16% of the time and recorded a strikeout percentage below 15%: Bryant, Peterson, and Vaughn. Bryant was the second overall pick in 2013. Seattle selected Peterson with the 12th overall pick. And it should be noted that both accomplished the feat during their junior seasons.

Now let’s take a look at his work thus far in 2019:

Between 2011 and 2018, only three Division I hitters met the following criteria in a season (min. 175 PA): 20% walk rate, sub-15% strikeout rate, a .350 batting average, and a .650 slugging percentage. Those three hitters: Seth Beer, James Ramsey, and Casey Gillaspise, all three getting drafted in the opening round.

Bat speed, bat speed, bat speed – that’s the name of the game for Vaughn. It’s not on the same level as Clint Frazier, who’s long been lauded for his bat speed, but it is close. Vaughn shows above-average to plus raw power – though it may slide comfortably into the 15- to 20-homer territory in the professional ranks. But he has the potential to be a perennial .290- to .300-hitter with plus on-base skills and some defensive value. One more final note: Since 2010, only two first baseman who were 6-foot or less slugged at least 25 homeruns in a big league season: Prince Fielder, who accomplished it four times, and Eric Thames.”

For the record, per FanGraphs, Vaughn’s average exit velocity was 91 mph with a peak of 111 mph.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: 2021

______________________________________________________________________________

3. Michael Kopech, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Background: It was the deal that – officially – kicked off the club’s rebuild after years, and years, of being mired in baseball purgatory. And the White Sox, as difficult as it was dealing off one of the greatest players in franchise history, knocked it out of the park when they received Yoan Moncada, Luis Alexander Basabe, Victor Diaz, and Michael Kopech for ace southpaw Chris Sale. Equipped with a limitless arsenal and 45-grade control/command, Kopech rocketed through the minor leagues beginning in 2016 when he spent the majority of a shortened season in High Class A as a 20-year-old. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound righty, now in Chicago’s farm system, split time between the club’s Class AA and Class AAA affiliates the following season, posting a dominating 172-to-65 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 134.1 innings of work. And just as he was dipping his toes in the waters of Chicago – he posted a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during a four-game start with the Sox – the former first rounder’s season was prematurely cut short due to Tommy John surgery. The injury and subsequent rehab knocked him out for the entirety of 2019.

Scouting Report: According to FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, Kopech’s fastball – post op – was still sitting in the upper 90s and touching triple digits during his return to action in the Instruction League following the regular. Essentially, at this point, there’s nothing new to report on skill wise. It’s an elite arsenal, assuming it all comes back, that should push him up to bonafide ace status depending upon his feel for the strike zone with the floor of a Yordano Ventura.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

______________________________________________________________________________

4. Nick Madrigal, 2B

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 70 40 60 50 50+ 55

Background: It’s not often that a 5-foot-7, 165-pound collegiate player will hear his name in the opening picks of the June draft. But Madrigal isn’t your typical player. A consistent – often times dominating – bat during his three-year career with the Oregon State Beavers, Madrigal left the collegiate powerhouse with a career .361/.422/.502 triple-slash line, belting out 40 doubles, 11 triples, eight homeruns, and 39 stolen bases. Chicago made the middle infielder the fourth overall pick two years ago, sandwiching him between another pair of dominating collegiate bats (Wichita State’s Alec Bohm and Florida’s Jonathan India). Madrigal continued to impress as he vaulted through three different levels during his professional debut, batting a collective .303/.353/.348 with seven doubles in 43 total games. And last season – once again – the 5-foot-7, 165-pound second baseman skipped his way through three levels, going from High Class A up to the Southern League before settling in nicely in Class AAA. In 120 total games, Madrigal hit .311/.377/.414 with 27 doubles, five triples, four homeruns, and 35 stolen bases (in 48 attempts).

Scouting Report: An on-base machine who possesses the type of speed to wreak havoc on the base paths. Madrigal remains one of my favorite prospects in the game, a player easy to root for. The former Oregon State star is a throwback to yesteryear: he struck out just 16 times in 532 plate appearances last season – or exactly 3.0% of the time. Somewhere, I figure, Joe DiMaggio is smiling. Madrigal owns one of the best – if not the best – hit tool in the all the minor leagues. It’s a genuine plus-plus tool with the likelihood of competing for several batting titles before the end of his career. He doesn’t show a ton of over-the-fence pop, but uses the entire field effectively, shooting the ball from gap to gap. Above-average or better speed. Slightly better than average glove. He looks like a Whit Merrifield clone.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

5. Blake Rutherford, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45 40 40 50 50 45

Background: Takenbetween a couple of power arms in the opening round of the 2016 draft. Rutherford, who was sandwiched by Forrest Whitley and former Boston College star Justin Dunn, was the 18th overall pick. Out of Chaminade College Preparatory School in West Hills, California, the lefty-swinging outfielder was acquired from the Yankees near the trade deadline three years ago in the deal that sent Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle to New York. Rutherford, who was coming off of a quietly solid performance in the Carolina League, spent the entirety of 2019 in the Southern League. In a career-best 118 games with the Barons, the 6-foot-2, 210-pound outfielder batted .265/.319/.365 with 17 doubles, three triples, and seven homeruns. He also swiped nine bags in 11 total attempts. Per Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 5% below the league average mark. Rutherford spent time with Glendale in the Arizona Fall League, hitting a lowly .179/.281/.385.

Scouting Report: The overall numbers are pretty mediocre. But Rutherford’s batting average-driven, slashing approach at the plate shined brightly after a terrible start to the year. After hitting a lowly.160/.212/.255 over his first 29 games, the former first rounder slugged a healthy .298/.351/.401 with 15 doubles, a pair of triples, and five homeruns over his final 89 games. And just prorating those numbers over a full 162-game schedule: 27 doubles, four triples, and nine homeruns. Rutherford remains a bit of an underrated prospect. There’s a chance for a 55-hit tool, with 8 to 10 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. In terms of ceiling, think Adam Eaton’s stat line from 2019: .279/.365/.428.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

6. Jonathan Stiever, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 60 60 55 50 55+ 45

Background: Indiana University has churned out an impressive list of hitters throughout the years, like: Kyle Schwarber, Sam Travis, Micah Johnson, Alex Dickerson, Kevin Orie, and Mickey Morandini. But the Big10 school hasn’t burped out a ton of interesting arms. Jonathan Stiever, however, could change that perception. A fifth round pick two years ago, Stiever, who was the 138th overall player, turned in one of the more pleasant surprises in the White Sox’s system last season. Beginning with a 14-game stint with the Kannapolis Intimidators, Stiever’s punched out 77 and walked just 14 in 74.0 innings of work. The front office bumped the hard-throwing right-hander up to the Carolina League in late June for another 12 starts; he posted a 77-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 71.0 innings of work.

Scouting Report: A far better arsenal than I would have guessed given (A) his lack of strikeouts in college, (B) his feel for the strike zone, and (C) his relatively modest draft status. Stiever features four quality pitches: a plus fastball that he commands well and prefers to keep low; a 60-grade curveball; an above-average slider, and a decent changeup. His curveball is particularly interesting because the ferocity of spin. Mix in some pinpoint accuracy, and Stiever – the former fifth rounder – has developed into a legitimate pitching prospect. With respect to his work in High Class A, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout rate between 27% and 29% with a 4% to 6% walk percentage in any of the three High Class A leagues (min. 60 IP): Leo Crawford, Harold Arauz, Jarod Plummer, Matt Frisbee, Adam Morgan, Eric Surkamp, and – of course – Jonathan Stiever.

Stiever has the potential to develop into a nice, innings-eater type backend starting pitcher with the floor of a solid 8th inning arm.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

______________________________________________________________________________

7. Matthew Thompson, RHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 55/60 55 45/50 45+ 45

Background: Fun Fact: Prior to the Sox taking Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist in the second and third rounds last June, the organization hadn’t drafted a high school arm that early since 2014 when they selected Georgia prep right-hander Spencer Adams with the 44th overall pick. Thompson, a long-limbed, wiry right-hander, signed with the franchise for a hefty $2.1 million – roughly $500,000 above the recommended slot value. Thompson made two brief, single-inning appearances in the Arizona Summer League, fanning two without issuing a walk.

Scouting Report: Thompson’s fastball sits in the low-90s; it’s fairly straight, but it’s likely to be a plus pitch as he fills out. His curveball is hard and tight, almost like a 12-to-6 breaking slider. And he’ll mix in a below-average changeup that’s a bit too raw, too firm. Thompson’s raw, but has the potential to develop into a backend starting pitcher. He seems confident in his ability to spin the breaking ball.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

______________________________________________________________________________

8. Dane Dunning, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Background: Drafted with the 29th overall pick coming out of the University of Florida four years ago by the Nationals. Washington dealt the savvy right-hander to the Pale Hose as part of a four-player return for outfielder Adam Eaton in early December 2016. Dunning, who was acquired along with burgeoning ace Lucas Giolito and righty Reynaldo Lopez, was in the midst of playing himself into a September call-up two years ago. But a wonky elbow, which was originally diagnosed as a sprained ligament but eventually required Tommy John surgery, forced him to miss the second half of 2018 and all of 2019.

Scouting Report: The October 2018 reports indicating that Dunning was throwing pain-free proved to a be a false warning of sorts; the former Gator underwent Tommy John surgery, which was performed by Dr. James Andrews, near the end of Spring Training last season. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound right-hander is now entering his age-25 with just over 50 innings above High Class A. Assuming health isn’t an issue moving forward, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dunning pop up in Chicago down the stretch for a couple short relief outings to get his feet wet in the big leagues.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

9. Gavin Sheets, 1B

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50 45 30 55 50 45

Background: A consistent, smooth hitter in the middle of Wake Forest’s lineup for the majority of his collegiate career, the Pale Hose selected the 6-foot-4, 230-pound first baseman in the second round, 49th overall, three years ago. The former Demon Deacon, who’s father Larry slugged 31 homeruns for the Orioles in 1987, squared off against the most difficult minor league challenge last season, Class AA, and quietly succeeded. In 126 games with the Birmingham Barons, Sheets posted a solid .267/.345/.414 triple-slash line, belting out 18 doubles, one triple, and a career best 16 homeruns – an increase of 10 dingers from his previous season’s output. Per Deserved Runs Created Plus, Sheets topped the league average threshold by 29%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only four 23-year-olds met the following criteria in the Southern League (min. 300 PA): 125 to 135 DRC+, double-digit walk rate, a sub-20% strikeout rate, and an ISO between .130 and .160. Those four players: Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Coghlan, Phil Ervin, and – of course – Phil Ervin.

Sans Sheets, here are their respective career DRC+ totals at the big league level: 103 (Lucroy), 94 (Coghlan), and 95 (Ervin)

That level of production, while decent for up-the-middle and/or role players, hardly screams middle-of-the-lineup first baseman. Best case scenario: Mitch Moreland, who’s been a league average-ish bat during his big league career.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

10. Bryan Ramos, 3B

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45/50 45/55 30 50 50 50

Background: The franchise has never been shy about signing Cuban players. Alexei Ramirez, a 2014 All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger Award winner; Dayan Viciedo, and – of course – the club’s current top prospect, Luis Robert, immediately jump to mind. Enter: Bryan Ramos, a 6-foot-2, 190-pound teenager from La Habana. Signed for $300,000 on the international market in early July two years ago, the young third baseman made his debut in the Arizona Summer League last season, slugging a solid .277/.353/.415 with 10 doubles, a pair of triples, and four homeruns. He also swiped three bags in seven attempts. His overall production, according to Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 19%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 17-year-old hitters that owned a DRC+ between 115 to 125 in the Arizona Summer League (min. 175 PA): Fernando Tatis Jr., Martin Peguero, Gionti Turner, and Bryan Ramos.

Does. Not. Get. Cheated. The ideal goal for Ramos’ swing would be controlled chaos, though there’s still work to be done on the control side. But the bat speed; raw, muscular power, and natural loft all scream future above-average power. I really, really like the upside in Ramos. There’s starting potential here, possibly more. He could be one of the bigger breakouts in the minor leagues in 2020.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2023

______________________________________________________________________________

Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.