Recent machinations over a deal in which the North promised to suspend some nuclear work for American food aid, then reneged quickly on a pledge to suspend long-range missile tests, at least raised the possibility that such a power struggle could be under way. And despite American officials’ worries, there is one situation in which it could lead to more moderate behavior: if the failed missile launching emboldens those who have long believed in reaching some accord with the West and now can make the case that hard-liners fumbled the provocation, which in the end scuttled the agreement to bring in much-needed food.

The launching drew swift, if predictable and somewhat toothless, international condemnation; the United Nations Security Council has prohibited such tests by the North for years, and Pyongyang has ignored it for just as long. But whatever steps the Security Council takes are likely to be weak — there are few sanctions left that have not already been attempted, and there are fears that stronger action could simply push the North to conduct a nuclear test, as it has done when condemned in the past.

Despite the embarrassing setback, Mr. Kim was installed hours after the rocket fizzled as the new head of the National Defense Commission, his country’s highest state agency, during a parliamentary meeting. That was the last among the top military, party and state posts that have been transferred to him after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in December.

For the launching, North Korea has recently completed a new site near the western border with China — at a cost of $400 million, according to South Korean estimates. The rocket itself cost another $450 million, the South Korean government believes. And the lost American food aid was estimated to be worth $200 million, driving the effective cost of the test above $1 billion in a country that cannot feed its own people.

The rocket reached only about 94 miles in altitude, far less than the 310 miles required to place a satellite into orbit and, as North Korean officials liked to say, present “a gift” to the closest the North Koreans have to a deity: Kim Il-sung.

In a socialist country steeped in the traditions of a Confucian dynasty, it is of paramount importance for the country’s new leader to embellish his rise to power with events that show his loyalty to his forefathers while demonstrating his own abilities to lead, analysts said. This launching was supposed to represent that moment: Both Kim Il-sung and his son, Kim Jong-il, ever fearful of an attack from the United States, had dreamed of North Korea having an effective nuclear deterrent, and that requires functioning missiles that could be fitted with weapons and reach the West.