Jeff Sagarin NCAA basketball ratings

 Sagarin ratings index

All Contents Copyright © 2013 Jeff Sagarin tm . All rights reserved. Final COLLEGE BASKETBALL 2012-2013 through results of 2013 APRIL 8 MONDAY - NCAA Championship this output has one part: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom RATINGS, WON-LOSS records, and SCHEDULE strengths are based SOLELY on games between Division I teams -- i.e. the 347 teams in this listing. The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 4 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be favored by 6 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 78. NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season. THREE different home edges shown: first for RATING , second for ELO_SCORE , third for PREDICTOR(PURE POINTS) The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 25 and CURRENT top 50 respectively. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ELO_SCORE applies ELO principles to the actual SCORES of the games and so it is now SCORE BASED and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR , BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is also a very good PREDICTOR of future games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two somewhat different SCORE BASED methods, ELO_SCORE and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) , and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.