Mitt Romney decided last weekend that he would not run for president a third time in 2016. But even minutes before his Friday announcement, several of his former top aides were held in suspense, some as convinced he was in as others were adamant he was out.

All week, the 2012 GOP nominee looked and sounded like a candidate. On a Sunday night conference call with advisers, Romney talked through the steps he was taking toward getting in. On a campaign-style trip to Mississippi, he stopped by a barbeque joint, gladhanding customers, before taking jabs at Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama during a speech at a state university.


All the while, he and his wife Ann were praying as they came to terms with the choice to recede from the national political scene.

There was no one moment or factor that changed the Republican’s mind, according to interviews with more than a dozen people who have been in touch with Romney since he announced to a group of donors early this month that he was seriously interested in a 2016 bid. It was, by all accounts, a gradual process.

A clear-eyed Romney approached the deliberations like the former Bain Capital executive he is, encouraged by the warm response he got on the campaign trail in 2014 but fully aware of the difficult path forward and the indignities that come with running for president. The return of jokes and columns about Romney putting his dog Seamus on the roof of a car during a decades-ago family vacation exasperated him, for example.

In more candid moments of self-doubt, he worried that he might not wind up being the party’s best hope of beating Hillary Clinton – and thought about the stigma that would come with losing two national elections in a row.

“Today indicates a strong level of self-awareness,” said someone who has worked for Romney in a senior role. “He did a gut check, and it just wasn’t there,” said another. “It’s not like in 2012 where you have to run to save the country from these clowns,” a third person said, referring to the less-than-stellar GOP field four years ago. “There are serious people in this race.”

“When you make the decision to run for president, you really have to want it with every fiber of your being,” added a fourth person, one of his closest confidantes. “And Mitt thought it was time to let new leaders emerge from the field and carry the banner forward. It was a form of duty that he felt to his party.”

Last Friday, alumni from his 2012 run gathered in Boston to collate intelligence and prepare a briefing for Romney. All 99 of Romney’s Iowa county chairs from 2012 had been called, and most said they were still with him. Finance director Spencer Zwick expressed confidence that they could raise ample resources.

“It was, ‘This is gonna be hard but we’re in better shape than we thought we’d be,’” Ron Kaufman, a longtime friend, said of the meeting. “Maybe a little harder than ‘12, but we had a path and it was better than anyone else’s path.”

A handful of his most trusted aides then spent an hour on the phone with Romney Sunday evening, outlining what he’d need to do if he wanted to be a candidate again. They told him there would be some defections of donors, operatives and endorsers, but assured him that he would start as the frontrunner for the nomination.

Two people on the call said Friday that they thought they noticed a change in the tone of Romney’s voice that night compared to conversations in the weeks before.

“I had a sense going back a week or so that he was feeling less bullish on the idea,” said a close adviser who participated in the call. “I don’t want to call them doubts, but feelings were creeping up.”

Romney didn’t have to declare his candidacy, but the team told him it was important to send a signal to donors and potential staff that he was very serious. Jeb Bush was calling around, trying to poach both. One person on the call compared to the situation to an hourglass: the longer you wait, the more people would be picked off.

The governor said at the end of the discussion that he would show his hand either way by the end of the week.

“We were waiting for the green light,” said a top adviser on the call. “We knew that he was serious, but he had not given us the green light to begin reaching out and assemble staff, or to form some kind of an entity that would allow him to run. We were waiting for him to give us the high sign.”

Romney’s 14 months of deliberations Mitt Romney was against running for president in 2016, before he was for it, before he was against it again. Here’s a look at his evolution on a decision he plainly agonized over the past 14 months: Nov. 15, 2013: Mitt Romney tells “CBS This Morning,” “You know it was a fabulous experience, I loved it. But we’re not doing that again.” Jan. 18, 2014: The New York Times asks Romney if he will run again. He responds, “Oh, no, no, no. No, no, no, no, no. No, no, no.” Jan. 31, 2014: Ann Romney to Fox News’ Bill Hemmer: “I think I’m over it. Life is good. Life moves on. There’s woulda-coulda-shouldas, of course, that you feel all the time.” Feb. 5, 2014: Mitt Romney tells CNN’s Wolf Blitzer: “I’m not running for president in 2016. It’s time for someone else to take that responsibility.” He adds, “I’ve had my turn, I gave it two good shots, didn’t win and now it’s time for someone else to do it. I’m not running for president. I made that clear the morning after the last loss.” March 23, 2014: Asked by Bob Schieffer if he’s thinking about running again, Romney responds: “No, I’m thinking about the people who I want to see running for President. And there’s quite a group.” June 13, 2014: Romney tells The Associated Press he’s not thinking about running, but adds, “The unavailable is always the most attractive, right? That goes in dating as well.” June 15, 2014: NBC’s “Meet the Press” moderator asks Romney what he would do if he was “drafted” to run. “I’m not running, and talk of a draft is kind of silly,” he says. Aug. 26, 2014: On “The Hugh Hewitt Show,” Romney says, “The reason I came to the conclusion I did, which is this is not the right time for me to run, is because of my belief that someone else stands a better chance of winning than I do. Had that not been the case, had I believed I would actually be best positioned to beat Hillary Clinton, then I would be running.” He adds, however, that “circumstances can change.” Sept. 7, 2014: Speaking on “Fox News Sunday,” Romney says, “I’m not running. I’m not planning on running.” He adds, “There’s no question in my mind that I think I would have been a better president than Barack Obama has been. I wish it were me. But my time has come — come and gone. I ran, I didn’t win. Now it’s time for someone else to pick up the baton.” Sept. 30, 2014: The New York Times Magazine profiles Romney and asks him if he’ll run. “I have nothing to add to the story,” he responds. “We’ve got a lot of people looking at the race. We’ll see what happens.” Oct. 13, 2014: Ann Romney tells the Los Angeles Times that the Romney family is “done. Completely. Not only Mitt and I are done, but the kids are done.” Oct. 14, 2014: Ann Romney tells The Washington Post, “At this moment, it’s a ‘no’ for Mitt and for the boys,” but adds, “Honestly, we’ll have to see what happens.” First week of December 2014: Mitt Romney holds meetings with New York-based donors, including New York Jets owner Woody Johnson and hedge fund managers Julian Robertson and Paul Singer. Business Insider reports that an attendee was convinced he was running. Jan. 9, 2015: The Wall Street Journal reports that Romney told donors he was “seriously considering” another White House run. Jan. 16, 2015: Romney tells The New York Times that his donors have been “very encouraging” in an article with the headline, “‘No, No, No, No’ Becomes Maybe for Ann Romney.” Jan. 21, 2015: Romney tells a Salt Lake City investment management conference that the country needs “real leadership” on climate change. “The major challenges that this country faces are not being dealt with by leaders in Washington,” he said. The Deseret News’ headline reads, “Mitt sounds like a candidate.” Jan. 22, 2015: Romney meets Jeb Bush in Utah, claims “we put aside” the “awkward side of this, about running.” Jan. 28, 2015: Mitt Romney gives a speech at Mississippi State University in which he attacks Hillary Clinton and says he “might be thinking of running for president again.” Jan. 30, 2015: Mitt Romney tells supporters on a conference call that he isn’t running again. “You know that I have wanted to be” president, he said. “You can’t imagine how hard it is for Ann and me to step aside, especially knowing of your support and the support of so many people across the country. But we believe it is for the best of the Party and the nation.”

As they waited for authority to start bringing on staff, advisers began informally working the phones for potential endorsers. About a week ago, a person from Romney’s orbit reached out to Rep. Peter King, the moderate New York Republican, to ask whether he would advise Romney on how to engage “blue-collar conservatives” and “talk about campaign strategy among Reagan Democrats.”

“That’s where he was weakest the last time,” said King. “He had a hard time appealing to working-class people.”

Meanwhile, Romney looked more and more like a candidate.

Romney had long been scheduled to give a Wednesday speech at Mississippi State University. He asked to tack on a stop at a barbecue joint for a pulled pork sandwich and agreed to drop by a classroom to meet students. Some of his own advisers interpreted this as a sign that he was moving toward a run, when it turns out that he had already made up his mind but was keeping it a secret.

The inner circle didn’t find out until Thursday night, and even many key aides from the past were in the dark until the conference call Friday.

“I’m way more disappointed than I thought I’d be; it’s like losing all over again,” said a senior official on Romney’s 2012 campaign. “All of us are so loyal to Mitt and Ann. It’s harder than we thought to watch him step aside.”

A good friend of Romney’s, who recently traveled to Utah to help him think it through said it was “a very tough call” for the 2012 nominee. They saw polling that showed Romney could defeat Clinton in Virginia, Ohio and maybe Florida. But this person said it all just did not “feel right,” so he advised Romney not to forge ahead.

Another donor and friend said she was in touch with Romney as recently as last weekend and came away from the conversation certain that the former Massachusetts governor would make another run. “Then I began to have queasy feelings about it in the middle of this week. I don’t know why,” the donor said.

One key adviser said Romney, 67, has been thinking a lot about electability. “If the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton [who is also 67], which it looks like they’ll do, and you’re setting up this narrative that Hillary is the past and she’s got old ideas, was he going to be in the best position to set up that contrast and to make that case?”

“It was more just as a matter of politics,” the adviser added. “What’s best for the party? That drove his decision.”

Several advisers involved in the deliberations of the last few weeks played down the role that Jeb Bush played in deterring Romney’s candidacy. The New York Times reported Thursday that Dave Kochel, who ran Iowa for Romney in 2012, will become the former Florida governor’s national campaign manager. Bush is traveling aggressively in order to post an impressive first-quarter fundraising haul, and he’s already come after some of Romney’s biggest boosters from the past.

“The idea that Kochel factored into the decision, ugh,” said one adviser. “To those of us who’ve been around a long time, and understand the team and the process, it’s so weird to think Kochel had anything to do it.”

Romney is unlikely to endorse early in the nominating process, his friends say. It’s more likely he would try to tip the scales when the field is down to two or three contenders. He promised Friday to help whomever emerges as the nominee.

Romney is having dinner Friday night with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, but it’s a social call that has been long planned. He also is said to think highly of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Kevin Madden, who worked on Romney’s last two campaigns, said it was unquestionably an agonizing call for his former boss.

“I think it was a genuine tug of war between the head and the heart,” said Madden. “In this heart, he still believes he’d be a good president and that he could win. And then there’s the reality that it could be a potentially divisive primary process. Oddly enough, I really believed the heart would outweigh the head on this. But one big consideration was that this should be bigger than him.”

Ben White and Katie Glueck contributed to this report.