Gov. Scott Walker and Mary Burke are locked in a close race leading up to the Nov. 4 election. Credit: Rick Wood / Mike De Sisti

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The race for governor has tightened again, with Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Democratic challenger Mary Burke tied at 47% among likely voters in a poll released Wednesday by Marquette University Law School.

Burke eliminated Walker's 5-point lead among likely voters in the Marquette poll two weeks ago.

The race for attorney general is also dead even.

Walker led Burke among registered voters, 48%-45%. But the poll's director, Charles Franklin, said more weight should be given to likely voters, which are defined as those who say they are sure to cast a ballot.

"I think the big surprise is moving from a 5-point Walker advantage to a tie in two weeks," Franklin told reporters.

"This is a significant movement, or an interesting amount of movement."

In the attorney general's race, Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel and Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ were tied at 42% each among likely voters. They each had 39% among registered voters.

Schimel is a Republican and Happ is a Democrat. Both candidates remain unknown to about three-quarters of voters, and a significant chunk of likely voters — 16% — are still undecided.

The election is Nov. 4.

Here are five take-aways from the poll:

Independent voters. Much of Burke's gain can be attributed to independent voters. Two weeks ago, Walker led that group 53%-40%, but in the latest poll Burke had the edge with those voters, leading Walker 45%-44%.

Franklin cautioned that the movement among independent voters could change again. But he also noted far more independent voters now say they plan to vote — 80% say they intend to cast a ballot, compared to 67% two weeks ago.

Before the poll two weeks ago, Marquette's surveys in recent months have showed Walker and Burke to be in a dead heat.

"It's simply striking that neither candidate has broken out and sustained, even for two polls in a row, a strong surge," he said.

Walker won the governorship in the Republican wave year of 2010 and racked up a bigger margin in 2012, when he became the first governor in U.S. history to survive a recall election. Both times he faced Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.

"Surely this (tight race) has a lot to do with the fact that voters are being asked to make a decision about Walker for the third time in just four years," Franklin said. "We've had a lot of practice deciding what we think about him as a candidate."

Gender gap. Voter preference by gender had strongly favored Walker two weeks ago — but it has disappeared.

In the Oct. 1 poll, there was a dramatic difference, with men supporting Walker by a 28-point margin and women backing Burke by a 14-point margin.

Now, among likely voters, men favored Walker 48%-46% and women favored Burke 48%-47%.

Throughout the race, Walker has tended to do better among men and Burke among women. But the numbers have shifted around considerably. Franklin noted the gender gap in the last poll was one of the largest; in the latest poll, it was the smallest.

Debate. The first debate on Friday between Walker and Burke doesn't seem to have been a factor, Franklin said.

Only a small percentage of people in the survey had watched, read or heard about the debate. And of that group, more thought Walker performed better than Burke.

Franklin said he conducted an analysis controlling for partisanship and demographic characteristics among debate watchers.

"I could find no evidence of a shift in vote preference of people interviewed in the two days after the debate," said Franklin, which he said was common.

Walker and Burke will meet in their final debate at 7 p.m. Friday in Milwaukee.

Wisconsin's direction. Among likely voters, 53% said they believed that the state is headed in the right direction, but 43% disagree and say the state is headed in the wrong direction.

That's a change. Two weeks ago, 56% said they thought the state was moving in the right direction and 42% said it was not.

Walker also saw a slight decline in how he is viewed as governor. Fifty percent approve of the way Walker is handling the job as governor and 48% disapprove.

Two weeks ago, 52% said they approved of the job he was doing and 47% disapproved.

Among likely voters, 50% said that Wisconsin was lagging behind other states economically. That's an increase from 43% last time.

Presidential aspirations. More people support U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Janesville in running for president than Walker.

A quarter of likely voters said they would like to see Walker run for president in 2016 and 70% would not. Those results come a day after Walker downplayed the possibility of making such a run.

Among Republicans who are likely voters, 49% would like the governor to run for president.

Ryan — the 2012 Republican candidate for vice president — saw more support for a presidential run. Forty percent of likely voters said they want him to run for president; 52% do not.

But among Republicans who are likely voters, 69% want to see Ryan run and 23% do not. Ryan's level of support among Republicans for a presidential run is 20 points higher than Walker's.

Wednesday's poll included 1,004 registered voters, of whom 803 were likely voters. Voters were surveyed from Thursday through Sunday.

The margin of error was 3.2 percentage points among registered voters and 3.5 points for likely voters.

In other findings:

Burke showed bigger improvements on measures of favorability and empathy, but more people think that Walker can get things done.

On being viewed favorably, Burke's rating increased more — from 40% to 44% over the past two weeks. Walker's totals are higher, but dropped, from 52% to 50%.

Forty-four percent of those polled viewed Burke unfavorably, the same as two weeks ago. Those who viewed Walker unfavorably rose from 46% to 48%.

Walker saw an increase in the number of people who believe he can get things done. It rose from 63% to 67% compared to the last poll — far ahead of Burke. Those who believe that Burke is able to get things done increased from 42% to 46%.

Among registered voters, 15% said that had put out yard signs for the fall elections and 15% said they had made a political donation.