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This article was published 13/11/2015 (1775 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Opinion

The Manitoba Progressive Conservatives tried as much as possible to make their mock throne speech, unveiled Friday, feel like the real thing.

A large committee room at the Manitoba legislature was booked for the event. Dignitaries were ushered into the room, just before a procession of Tory MLAs and candidates. Then, leader Brian Pallister arrived for a triumphant stroll to the podium.

Although it’s not real, it’s a pretty good bit of political theatre. Many opposition parties have used similar events, held just a few days before the government of the day delivers the real throne speech. The Selinger government will give its address on Monday, kicking off the last legislative session before next April’s election.

How did the Tories do? In general, Pallister’s messaging is solid.

In his speech, he hammered away at trust and integrity, subjects that are top of mind for Manitoba voters after 16 years of NDP government. He picked away at the NDP’s most prominent scabs: the decision to raise the PST, to fund infrastructure after promising not to; poor outcomes in health care and public education; an inability to bring the budget back into surplus.

To amplify NDP weaknesses, Pallister promised to pass new laws on accountability and ethics. The key takeaways were "trust," "accountability," and "Manitoba values."

Pallister is no fool, and he understands the NDP is tired and weak and carrying a lot of baggage. The NDP is also governing through a period of low economic growth and high economic uncertainty, conditions that make it hard to get re-elected.

Put it all together, and it’s no surprise the PCs are riding high in opinion polls, staring down an election that will be very hard for Pallister to lose.

However, that does not mean the Pallister agenda is flawless.

Although it hits all the right thematic notes, the Tory throne speech was a reminder Pallister’s policies are rife with conflicts in logic, sloppy mathematics and dubious political strategy. If this is a sneak peek into the tone and content of next spring’s Tory election campaign, there is reason for Pallister’s supporters to worry.

In particular, fiscal matters continue to be Pallister’s Achilles heel.

Pallister promises to maintain key services and balance the budget while providing hundreds of millions of dollars in tax relief for Manitobans in the form of a lower PST, a higher basic personal exemption and an end to bracket creep. Oh, and a robust, predictable infrastructure program.

RUTH BONNEVILLE / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Progressive Conservative Leader Brian Pallister

To balance these pledges, Pallister has promised to eliminate wasteful government spending. As an example, on Friday he pledged to cut his cabinet by one-third, eliminating or blending many of the current departments and saving "millions" of dollars for taxpayers.

That could be a good thing. However, measures that provide "millions" of dollars in savings will do nothing to pay for promises, and budget deficits, that are measured currently in "hundreds of millions" of dollars.

Pallister said in a post-speech scrum he will reveal specific details on his fiscal policies and the costing of some of his key pledges in the very near future. This, he said several times, would show his plan is entirely doable.

Perhaps. But in this speech, he demonstrates he has not learned much from elections past. Two, in particular.

In 1999, then-NDP leader Gary Doer took on Tory premier Gary Filmon. As history has shown us, Doer trumped Filmon’s ambitious plan for new spending and tax cuts with relatively modest but symbolically important pledges to improve government services, health care in particular.

When the NDP won a majority, many Tories couldn’t figure out how Doer’s underwhelming campaign had triumphed over their own big and bold ideas. The NDP figured out it did not have to pull rabbits out of hats to capture the electorate’s appetite for change; all it had to do was pledge "better government."

A similar lesson was there for the taking from the recent federal election campaign.

The brilliance of Justin Trudeau’s campaign was its ability to promise within its means. On non-fiscal matters — things that did not necessarily require expenditures or tax measures — Trudeau was bullish, promising to change the tone and culture of federal government. On fiscal matters, Trudeau was practical, admitting he had to run deficits to fund his more costly pledges.

The big lesson was voters can see the difference between promises that are practical and ones that are impractical. And they are ready and willing to reward politicians who do not try to sell them pixie dust and unicorns.

There is a healthy dose of both unicorns and pixie dust in Pallister’s throne speech.

Promises to return integrity and accountability in government, along with his efforts to improve outcomes of key government services, are effective political strategies. Pallister’s continued insistence he can balance the budget, protect services and lower taxes is not particularly effective as a campaign message, because it’s not believable.

There was a moment when it seemed Pallister was ready to acknowledge that key point. In his comments, he raised the idea he cannot say exactly when he’s going to do everything he is promising because he does not know the actual depth of the NDP’s fiscal mess. This is opposition politics 101 — leaving the door open to breaking or delaying pledges — and perhaps a signal he is ready to dial down his strategy.

Pallister would be well-advised to go out with his throne speech in hand and survey party members, some of whom realize the value of the hard lessons learned in the elections of 1999 and 2015. Lessons that must be reflected in Pallister’s 2016 campaign if he has any hope of winning.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca