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“Hong Kong’s Past, Present, and Future.” This was the name of a seminar held at Rikkyo University in Tokyo. Academics from every corner of Japan flocked to attend. The seminar left no stone unturned as participants pored over the former British colony’s politics, economy, society, culture, language, and even cinema.

It goes without saying that Hong Kong is “trending” with the Japanese academia. The subject matter may seem like dry scholarly research, but over a hundred experts congregated for this one event.

Professor Lui Tai-lok (呂大樂) from the University of Hong Kong, who had been invited to speak at the seminar, expressed astonishment. “I didn’t know Japan was so concerned with Hong Kong.”

In truth, Japan’s fascination with Hong Kong is well-documented. The Japanese have always liked Hong Kong. They obsess over Hong Kong cinema and drool over Hong Kong cuisine. For a time, the older generation would only vacation abroad in one of two places: Hawaii or Hong Kong. On a whole, Japan is very familiar with Hong Kong.

In fact, based on what I’ve seen, Hong Kong is a stranger to Taiwan. Despite the very short travel distance and a common language, neither Taiwan nor Hong Kong seem very knowledgeable about one another. Conversely, Japanese research on Hong Kong and Taiwan is generally wider in scope, and more in-depth.

I am aware the reasons are historical. I will say it straight, the psychological distance between Hong Kong and Taiwan is greater than the geographical distance. To put it even more bluntly, in the past, Hongkongers didn’t care for the Taiwanese, and the Taiwanese didn’t care for Hongkongers.

Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?

It is widely known that Hong Kong and Taiwan only began to warm up to each other in 2014, when two parallel protest movements—the Sunflower Student Movement in Taiwan in March, and the Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong in September—united the two populations in the face of adversity. (Read: The Burden of 'One Country, Two Systems')

At the Rikkyo University seminar, I heard Professor Fukuda Madoka of Hosei University speak on the topic of “Viewing Hong Kong from a Taiwanese Perspective.” Her speech was very intriguing. “Is today’s Hong Kong tomorrow’s Taiwan? Or is today’s Taiwan the future of Hong Kong?”

“Today’s Hong Kong, tomorrow’s Taiwan” was a popular catchphrase in 2014. Modern Hong Kong exemplifies Taiwan’s concern that Chinese rule will deprive it of freedom and democracy. Similarly, Taiwan has continued to express sympathy with Hong Kong, not to mention disappointment and dismay in the “one country, two systems" principle that forms the basis of Chinese reunification.

There’s also a more positive interpretation of this catchphrase. It raises the hope that Hong Kong will one day become akin to Taiwan: a self-made, self-ruled democratic society. Democratic and localist groups in Hong Kong cling to the ideal that they are fighting to become more like Taiwan.

Have you read?

♦ Hong Kong: Beijing's Big Headache

♦ Will Taiwan Go the Way of Hong Kong?

♦ Han Kuo-yu's Visit to Hong Kong Raises Suspicions

From an objective perspective, the harsh truth is democracy in Hong Kong is facing an existential crisis. The so-called “two systems” of the “one country, two systems" principle is coming undone. More and more, people are worried Hong Kong is losing its identity and becoming another indistinguishable part of China.

And so, there’s the rub, the frightening unspoken threat. It may very well be “today’s Hong Kong, tomorrow’s Taiwan” is also the long-term mission statement of the Chinese government in regards to Cross-Strait relations.

Japan Does Not Want to be the Next Korea

Japan is in a category apart from Taiwan and Hong Kong, because its tension with China does not arise from contentions over sovereignty. But Japan, too, has a neighbor it does not want to emulate. That neighbor is Korea.

The Korean Peninsula is connected to the Chinese mainland. Hence, Korea is more susceptible to Chinese influence than Japan. And indeed, its economic dependence on China is growing. (Read: Where Is Economic Dependence on China Taking Us?)

An example is the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployment dispute between China and South Korea. China retaliated by hitting South Korea with economic sanctions. Seoul eventually capitulated. The Moon Jae-in administration cozied up to Beijing by postponing the scheduled THAAD deployment.

What are the Japanese thinking as the world watches Korea seesaw between its pro-China and anti-China positions? We are thinking, “today’s Korea, tomorrow’s Japan” is not a future we want to see.

Without a doubt, Japan has a lot of problems of its own making. I am not saying the Japanese are more fortunate than Koreans, or anything like that. What I am saying is, Japan benefits from the political reality that most of its population has the same, undivided opinion regarding the matter of China.

China is a world superpower and not a neighbor to make slight of. From an economic point of view, 1.3 billion people is an enormous market. We certainly welcome more Chinese tourism and more business with China.

But we operate on fundamentally different political systems. China’s military and territorial ambitions have us worried. The good old days of trumpeting “China-Japan friendship” as the cure-all for our diplomatic woes are over.

China’s laser-sharp focus on opening its doors and assuming leadership on the global stage has not gone unnoticed. We must remain vigilant, even as we keep a careful, respectable distance. (Read: Former India Ambassador to China: 'With China, Stay Engaged… and Alert')

By and large, there is such a consensus among the general populace, and so Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been able to stick to his guns as he deals with China, knowing that the voters have got his back.

A unified front exposes fewer weak links for the Chinese to exert pressure on. Japan enjoys a relationship of equals with its much larger neighbor. Perhaps, this is something the Tsai Ing-wen administration would like as well.

Japan is buoyed by its powerful economy and steady alliance with the United States. This is an advantage Taiwan lacks.

Japan did not come to its understanding of China overnight. In the early seventies, Japan broke diplomatic relations with the Republic of China—that is, Taiwan—and officially recognized the People’s Republic of China. What followed was a brief era of “China-Japan friendship,” until amiable relations turned to rivalry during the nineties.

You might say we speak from experience. Japan went through the bitter and the sweet before we discovered the true face of China, and we found the best way of dealing with them.

Facing Down the Chinese Threat

As I’ve said, “today’s Korea, tomorrow’s Japan” will not be our future. And as a Japanese person, I feel the problem of Hong Kong is a good reflection of our common situation.

Whether your slogan is “today’s Hong Kong, tomorrow’s Taiwan,” or “today’s Taiwan, tomorrow’s Hong Kong,” you are basically expressing the same sentiment.

All the countries and societies existing in China’s shadow are on the same boat. We face a common problem. We are dealing with a juggernaut of an authoritarian nation that’s coming into great power on our very doorstep.

Certainly, democracy in Hong Kong is deteriorating fast. Unfortunately, all that the international community cares about seems to be the lucrative Chinese market. It must be disheartening for the people of Hong Kong to witness the apathy coming from the rest of the free world.

But the question of Hong Kong will without a doubt be debated, discussed, and remembered by all Asians living in the twenty-first century.

We are all part of the international community, and we are Hong Kong’s closest neighbors. So attention, attention must be paid, lest the saying “today’s Hong Kong, tomorrow’s Taiwan” become much more than an ominous catchphrase.

Have you read? More from Nojima Tsuyoshi's column:

♦ No International Recognition, No State?

♦ Taiwanese Drivers Turn Streets into Warzone

♦ Tokyo’s Kabukicho - City of the Taiwanese

Translated by Jack C.

Edited by Sharon Tseng

This article is translated from the original Chinese column of Nojima Tsuyoshi. It presents the opinion or perspective of the original author / organization, which does not represent the standpoint of CommonWealth magazine.