The party's money troubles, the leadership turmoil that dogged the Liberals at federal level between 2015 and 2018, and the failure to heed the lessons of the 2014 defeat, were also factors in the November 24 electoral meltdown. Loading The internal report lays bare the full extent of the failure of the Coalition’s "law and order" led strategy. "The focus on African gangs became a distraction for some key voters who saw it as a political tactic rather than an authentic problem to be solved by initiatives that would help make their neighbourhoods safer,'' Liberal elder Tony Nutt said. Post-election analysis found just 6 per cent of voters said the "Get Back in Control" agenda actually changed their vote – and not always in the Liberals’ favour.

The Liberal campaign was built around dozens of tough-on-crime policies with a pledge to "jail the gangs" and to "get back in control" of law and order. A Liberal Party flyer that claimed that “only the Liberals will stop gangs hunting in packs” released in July 2018 was condemned by human rights activists as "racist dog-whistling". But the Liberals defended the campaign material, arguing critics were in denial about the extent of Melbourne's youth gang problem, which had been making headlines since the previous summer. The report comes almost exactly a year after the Coalition’s humiliating state election loss, with many in the party frustrated about the length of time taken to produce the review. The review by Mr Nutt found what little voters knew of Mr Guy was defined by his role in the alleged “Lobster with a Mobster” saga, which was revealed in The Age, and controversial decisions while he was planning minister.

The election ended in catastrophic defeat for the Liberal-National Coalition, losing 10 of its 37 seats, with massive swings against MPs in some of their traditional heartland seats. Mr Nutt also reserved some criticism for political journalists who saw themselves "more as players and influencers than as traditional reporters". "While there are those who have some sympathy for our Party’s views, others, whatever their personal values and beliefs, are reliably hostile,'" he wrote. "Some are simply on the 'drip' to whoever is in office and provide the easy to write or produce, story of the day." Mr Nutt also said the Liberals had failed in their years in opposition to tell the difference between "red-hot issues" playing out in the media and critical strategic developments. "Key seat voters might be very unimpressed by the Red Shirts affair for instance," Mr Nutt wrote.

"But the brutal reality was that it was not going to change their actual vote on polling day given more relevant, personal and compelling factors like delivery of local infrastructure." The veteran Liberal operative allowed some grudging praise for the Andrews government's political manoeuvring. "Labor were ... largely successful in riding out problems through superior issue management,

rolling out new initiatives and changing the subject," Mr Nutt wrote in his review. Despite the report’s findings on the law and order agenda, Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien said the Liberal Party would “never walk away” from keeping Victorians safe. The report also found 17 per cent of voters did not know who Mr Guy was on election day. But Mr O’Brien said he was working to raise his own profile by hosting public meetings and meeting voters in person.

“I am getting out and about. I’m doing that more than any Opposition Leader has done in recent memory,” he said. Loading But he conceded a dispute with the Cormack Foundation, the Victorian Liberals’ most generous donor, had damaged the 2018 campaign. The legal costs amounted to $1.1 million for the party and $1.4 million for the foundation, the report showed. “It would have been far better for Matthew, for us as a party, if we’d been able to perhaps run some paid communications, to introduce him to the public a bit earlier,” Mr O'Brien said.