Iowa's Democratic debate for governor: Who won, who lost and where the race stands now

Kevin Hardy | The Des Moines Register

Show Caption Hide Caption These are the issues the Democratic candidates won't compromise on From civil rights to health care, the five Democratic candidates for governor said these are the issues they would not compromise on if they elected.

Ahead of Wednesday evening's debate among Democratic candidates for Iowa governor, pollster Ann Selzer expected every candidate to take a big swing in a last-ditch effort to stand out before Tuesday's primary election.

But that's not what she saw when the five candidates took the stage, she said during a live episode of "WONKS!," a monthly politics podcast hosted by former KCCI anchor Kevin Cooney and Dennis Goldford, chair of the political science department at Drake University.

"I'm not sure there was a single," said Selzer, whose Selzer & Co. conducts the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. "I expected every candidate to take a big swing and to say 'I've got nothing to lose.'"

Democratic and Republican analysts largely agreed with Selzer's assessment of the debate. Just days before voters head to the polls, none of the five candidates managed to steal the show — for better or worse — during Wednesday's debate hosted by the Des Moines Register and KCCI.

"No runs, no hits, no fouls," said Matt Paul, a senior vice president at Cornerstone Government Affairs who ran Hillary Clinton's victorious Iowa caucus campaign. "This was not a big fireworks show."

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Paul said he saw a few strong moments, but said "overall it was a pretty low-key night."

"So you have to give that advantage to Fred Hubbell," he said.

Why?

First of all, he's the frontrunner.

Hubbell made no major missteps that would jeopardize his lead, the panelists said. Other candidates failed to rise above the crowded field with any standout moments. And many exercised restraint given the opportunity to take a hit at the favorite.

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Selzer noted that Hubbell showed a command of the issues, speaking in depth, while other candidates spoke more at a "soundbite level."

"So I'm going to give the win to him," she said.

Hubbell led the field of six candidates in the most recent Iowa Poll, but failed to reach the 35 percent threshold needed to clinch the nomination outright at the ballot box. Nate Boulton's abrupt departure from the race after facing accusations of sexual misconduct threw an already fluid race into more turmoil.

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Matt Strawn, the former chairman of Iowa's Republican Party, said Hubbell seemed to play it safe.

"Who needs Ambien when you have Fred Hubbell?" he said. "I thought I was going to get a dissertation on the benefits of whole life versus term life insurance. It was a snoozefest."

He said Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds was Wednesday's big winner "if this is the best that Iowa Democrats have to offer." The primary winner will face the Republican governor, who does not have a primary in her quest to win a first full term in office in November's general election.

So who lost the most at the debate? Everyone on stage who wasn't Hubbell, Strawn said.

That included: nurse and union leader Cathy Glasson, former USDA official John Norris, former Iowa City Mayor Ross Wilburn, and physician and former party chairwoman Andy McGuire.

Glasson's passionate appeals did seem to connect with the Democratic base, Strawn said. And he gave credit to Norris, who related to gun owners with anecdotes of hunting and target shooting, for understanding that Democrats must do a better job connecting with rural voters.

But none was able to challenge Hubbell's lead, he said, and recast the shape of the race.

"It was a missed opportunity for those other candidates to draw blood," he said.

But anything can happen on Election Day, Paul warned. He cautioned against falling into the trap of "traditional wisdom," particularly following the unexpected election of Donald Trump in 2016 to the presidency.

He said he saw many empty chairs inside the auditorium at the Iowa Historical Building and suspects that could foreshadow low voter turnout.

"This may be a lower turnout than anybody expected," he said. "And when there's low turnout, weird things can happen."