Registration of MargaretGoodForCongress.com domain name invites speculation

After easily winning reelection in 2018, it seemed like U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan might be less of a target in 2020.

The blue wave did not extend to Buchanan's District 16, which he won by nine percentage points despite facing a well-funded challenger.

So far no Democrat has stepped up to challenge Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, in 2020, but an interesting development came recently when somebody registered the MargaretGoodForCongress.com domain name.

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State Rep. Margaret Good, a Siesta Key attorney who won a nationally watched special election last year in a northern Sarasota County district that Trump carried, is the Democratic Party's biggest star locally.

As a young, professional woman who has proven adept at both fundraising and grassroots campaigning and is well-connected locally and statewide, Good would be the ideal recruit to take on Buchanan.

Good already has defeated one Buchanan. She beat James Buchanan, the son of Vern Buchanan, in her special election victory.

But Trump carried Vern Buchanan’s congressional district by a significantly larger margin than he carried Good’s state House district, meaning the congressional race is a bigger challenge for Democrats.

Good already faces a tough challenge in trying to defend her state House seat, with two credible GOP candidates vying to take her on. Could she be mulling an even bigger challenge in the District 16 race?

Good isn’t saying. She did not respond to multiple requests for comment last week.

Kevin Griffith, the Democratic state committeeman for Sarasota County, said he hasn’t spoken to Good about running for Congress but believes she would be a great candidate.

“I do believe she’d be our highest caliber candidate we could put forward,” Griffith said. “She has a proven track record of winning in Republican-leaning districts.”

It’s not clear who registered the MargaretGoodForCongress.com domain name. The identity is obscured by registering through GoDaddy.com. And even if Good or someone connected to her registered the domain, it’s not necessarily an indication she is interested in running for Congress anytime soon.

Potential challengers may be discouraged by how the last effort to unseat Buchanan played out.

Siesta Key Democrat David Shapiro raised $2.4 million and also received considerable help from outside groups, who pummeled Buchanan with negative television ads. But despite facing a well-funded opponent and an unfavorable climate that helped Democrats pick up 40 seats in the House, Buchanan still won in a blowout.

That win could make it more difficult for Democrats to recruit a strong challenger to take on Buchanan in 2020, despite what is likely to be another favorable election cycle for Democrats because of backlash to President Donald Trump.

So far the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — which helped Shapiro financially — has not focused much on Buchanan.

The DCCC did not include Buchanan on a January list of 33 GOP-held seats being targeted in 2020. The two Florida Republicans who made the list are U.S. Rep. Brian Mast and U.S. Rep. Ross Spano.

Spano’s district is just to the north of Buchanan’s and the DCCC looks much more focused on trying to take him out.

That’s because Spano is more vulnerable. He won his seat by six percentage points last year but has since been embroiled in scandal because of questionable campaign contributions that may have been illegal.

The DCCC put out an email this week noting that Spano has spent more money than he has raised so far in the 2020 cycle. The congressman’s campaign is “a mess” and he is “limping into 2020,” according to the DCCC.

The DCCC did take a shot at Buchanan in February, including him on a list of 18 lawmakers who might consider retiring because of the difficult electoral climate for Republicans right now.

The “retirement watch” list is probably wishful thinking when it comes to Buchanan, though. The 2018 cycle demonstrated that he’s not as vulnerable as Democrats hoped, and his continued fundraising indicates he has no intention of stepping aside right now.

But in some ways Buchanan could be more vulnerable than he was in 2018. Trump is still unpopular and could be a drag on Republicans, Democratic turnout will be higher in a presidential year and Buchanan has much less cash on hand now than he did at the same point in the 2018 election cycle.

Buchanan announced last week that he he raised $375,377 in the second quarter of 2019, pushing his fundraising total for the 2020 campaign cycle over the $1 million mark.

But Buchanan has just $503,152 in cash on hand, compared to the nearly $2 million back in July of 2017.

One reason for the disparity is that Buchanan used $250,000 of the money he raised this cycle to pay back a personal loan he made to his 2018 campaign.

That Buchanan is using his fundraising to pay back his loans instead of stockpile for 2020 may be a sign that he’s not too worried about the next election. And as one of the wealthiest members of Congress, Buchanan can always plow money from his personal fortune back into his campaign account if he feels threatened.

If history is any indication, Buchanan has reason to feel confident about 2020. He has faced four truly competitive races and his margin of victory has grown each time. His closest race was his first one in 2006, when he squeaked by 369 votes after a recount.

To have a shot at taking out Buchanan, Democrats would have to recruit a stellar candidate who can raise even more money than Shapiro or is independently wealthy.

But even then, the odds are in Buchanan’s favor. He survived blue waves in 2006, 2008 and 2018.

That’s a pretty good indication that he’ll be able to withstand any challenge that comes his way in 2020, but if anyone has a shot, it’s probably Good.