THE Tories are ahead by double digits in the polls, a majority of voters think Theresa May is the best PM on offer and both Labour and Ukip are in crisis.

Little wonder some Tories are beginning to get excited about an early election.

8 The public see Theresa May as a no nonsense politician and have warmed to her, but an early election would destroy that reputation Credit: PA

“These circumstances are very unusual. We don’t have a functioning opposition and when was the last time we Tories were ten points ahead in government”, argues one MP who backed May for the leadership.

He claims that if she does go for it, “she’ll be in a very strong position as she’ll get a proper majority”.

He warns the alternative is “three years on a majority of 12”. But the Tories going for an early election would be a massive mistake.

8 The Labour Party is in turmoil with the Tories ahead by double digits in the polls Credit: PA

First, the public have warmed to May because they see her as a no-nonsense politician, someone who just gets on with the job in front of them.

She has constantly emphasised that she knows politics isn’t a game, implying that others have treated it as such. Calling an early election would destroy that reputation.

It would look like game playing on an epic scale, a cynical move to take advantage of Labour weakness.

Related Stories James Forsyth It's not about who the PM is, but what's the plan JAMES FORSYTH Top Tories did not see Brexit coming... even Gove conceded defeat and went to bed 'An economy for all' Theresa May hails small business as the 'backbone of Britain' and vows to make most of Brexit Exclusive LORDS HELP THEM Theresa May plots House of Lords overhaul after David Cameron's honours list sparks outrage CRONY ROW CLEAN-UP Theresa May vows to end 'gongs for mates' after cross-party fury at David Cameron's exit list PM'S OSBO VETO Theresa May promises overhaul of Osborne's economy to make Britain £150 billion richer

This is especially true as the fixed-term Parliament Act would mean Tory MPs would have to vote no confidence in their own Government to trigger an election.

The second reason that it isn’t a good idea, is that you can never know how long a honeymoon will last.

At the moment, the voters like May. After all the drama of the past few months, her calmness is reassuring.

8 Gordon Brown knows that public opinion can turn quickly Credit: Getty Images

She’s also benefiting from the fact that no one can accuse her of being a posh boy or a member of the old boys’ network.

But public opinion can turn quickly. As one Cabinet minister warns, “Remember Gordon Brown started like this”.

Public opinion can turn quickly

Those around May are acutely aware that her honeymoon won’t last for ever.

“Things will get far more challenging soon,” says one Downing Street source, adding: “No one is so naive as to think it is going to be easy.”

8 Crisis . . . Steven Woolfe has been barred from the UKIP leadership race Credit: PA:Press Association

Then there is, perhaps, the biggest danger — an early election would expose the Tory divides over Brexit.

At the moment, there is an uneasy Tory truce, as no one wants to start fighting over Europe again.

But May couldn’t hold an election without setting out what she means by Brexit. And as soon as she does that, she’ll disappoint one Tory tribe or another.

Those around May are clear that she is not going to the country early. “Never going to happen”, one member of her circle confidently declares. They believe that there is “no appetite” among the public for another election.

8 Owen Smith is challenging Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour Party leadership Credit: Getty Images

One minister who has worked with her for years tells me: “I don’t think she is going to go for it. She’s not the kind of person to change her mind.”

But if these poll leads persist, there’ll be more and more Tories urging her to go to the country and dish Labour.

May, though, must continue to resist this temptation. As she likes to say, politics isn’t a game.

James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator

Dame Lowell Goddard "surprised by the scale" of child abuse inquiry

8 'Difficult' . . . Dame Lowell Goddard Credit: PA

SO, why did Dame Lowell Goddard quit as head of the independent inquiry into child abuse?

Well, a source familiar with the workings of the inquiry tells me that the New Zealander was a “difficult woman to work with” and she had also been “surprised by the scale of it”.

The inquiry will, I’m told, carry on with its work even without a chair.

I understand that at a meeting with the Home Office yesterday, many of the survivors expressed the view that it would be better for someone already working on the inquiry to take control, rather than bringing someone in from outside who would have to get up to speed on where the inquiry has got to.

This is sensible. It would be very difficult to find anyone from outside who’d be suitable to chair it.

Any senior UK legal figure is bound to have establishment connections that will, given the nature of this inquiry, make things difficult. While it would be hard for anyone from abroad to be sufficiently expert on English law.

I am told that the Home Office has not ruled out this idea. Those closest to the inquiry now regard it as the most likely option.

David Cameron wanted BIGGER honours list

8 Ameet Gill turned down a peerage Credit: Andrew Parsons

DAVID Cameron’s resignation honours would have been even more extensive if he had had his way.

I understand his former director of strategy Ameet Gill was offered a peerage.

But Gill, who had worked for Cameron since he first became Tory leader, turned it down because he doesn’t agree with an undemocratic, appointed House of Lords.

Gill’s behaviour contrasts sharply with those lefties such as Neil Kinnock, Roy Hattersley and John Prescott who spent their careers inveighing against the House of Lords only to join it when offered the chance to do so.

HOLIDAYS ON HOLD FOR BREXIT AUGUST is normally when Westminster decamps to the beach. But this summer, there’ll be a fair few souls staying put as ministers and officials try to work out what Brexit deal to go for. One of those intimately involved in this process tells me it will be six months before we begin to get a clearer picture of what Brexit will actually look like. Senior Cabinet ministers are working on the basis the Government will set out what it wants “in the next three to four months”. For now, Downing Street is keen not to close down any options. That’s why No 10 was irritated by the Trade Secretary Liam Fox declaring the UK would leave the European customs union as well as the EU. I understand ministers have been told not to answer any questions about the details of Brexit. “They don’t want to throw away any cards,” explains one of those involved in preparing for the negotiations. But this can’t go on for much longer. Voters and businesses need to know what kind of deal the UK is looking for.

Gloves are off as Labour's civil war begins

8

THE gloves are off as the Labour and Ukip leadership contests are revealing the least attractive sides of the two parties.

With Labour, voters can now see just how ugly things are. There was nothing comradely about Thursday’s first leadership hustings as the crowd booed Jeremy Corbyn’s challenger Owen Smith.

It is increasingly hard to see how the two sides in this Labour civil war can work together again once this contest is over.

As for Ukip, a party not overburdened with talent has conspired to bar its two best media performers – Suzanne Evans and Steven Woolfe – from its leadership race.

This shows the party is simply incapable of renouncing factionalism and backbiting. A Ukip insider laments: “There aren’t three factions. It is like Syria, there are 300.”

As long as this is the case, Ukip will never become a force at Westminster.

The Tories can’t quite believe their luck. “We all pray for a Corbyn victory. But we just can’t believe it is going to happen,” quips one Cabinet minister.