On Wednesday, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker arrived in Washington likely expecting to walk into a Category 5 Trump-brand shitstorm. After hitting the European Union with steel and aluminum tariffs on “national security” grounds despite members of the bloc being among the U.S.’s closest allies, Trump spent the day before Junker’s visit moaning on Twitter about how badly other countries have “ripped off” America; claiming that questioning the merit of policies that have resulted in pain for U.S. companies and consumers is a sign of “weakness”; and declaring that “tariffs are the greatest.” Crucially, he also appeared poised to slap foreign-made cars with 25 percent tariffs, a move that would elevate his trade maneuvers of late from simply ignorant and self-defeating to truly insane. (Trade groups, economists, politicians, and virtually everyone outside the craziest members of Trump’s economic team have said auto tariffs would represent “a deadly blow” to American car makers from Toyota to GM). In emergency mode, Juncker was there to make a desperate plea for the president of the United States not to go full crazy. And it worked! Maybe! Sort of!

After meeting privately for approximately three hours, the two men held an impromptu press conference during which Trump told reporters that the U.S. and the E.U. will “work together toward zero tariffs” on industrial goods, the E.U. will import more liquefied gas and U.S. soybeans, and both parties will “work together” to reform the World Trade Organization. In a written statement released later—which contained no concrete promise to buy more soybeans, a proposition the former U.S. ambassador to the E.U. called “absurd”—there is no mention of steel, aluminum, and retaliatory tariffs until literally the last line. And even that aside is about as non-committal as humanly possible, saying simply, “We also want to resolve the steel and aluminum tariff issues and retaliatory tariffs.”

That Trump held off on imposing what would be truly catastrophic tariffs, and that he didn’t, like, tell Juncker to go to hell or call him a weak, little man, is obviously good news. The less-good news is that it’s not clear whether this moment of sanity is temporary, or permanent. As The New York Times points out, “aides have [twice] negotiated deals with China, only to have Mr. Trump reject them and threaten further tariffs.”

It’s possible Trump will negotiate with the E.U. without putting tariffs back on the table, and that he’ll make good on his apparent desire to “resolve” the steel and aluminum levies. It’s equally possible—perhaps even more so!—that some minuscule word, phrase, or imagined insult—something like, say, seeing a Mercedes rolling down Fifth Avenue—will set him off, and he’ll be back to warring with our “foes” and shooting the U.S. in the foot. The Levin Report is not a gambling newsletter, but it’s putting the odds at 50-50.

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