The rest of the Big Five (plus Notre Dame): SEC | ACC | Pac-12 | Big 12 | Independents

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It’s been a quarter-century in the making, but the time has come to see what happens when the big three of the Big Ten rise in unison.

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Last year marked the first time since 1986 that Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all won 10 games in a season. And while Penn State’s entry into the Big Ten in the early 1990s ensured extra games when those teams would lose, schedules have also expanded since that time.

The point of this exercise isn’t to disparage Nebraska and Wisconsin, which have some of the most fervent followers in the land. Nor is it to overlook the exceptional accomplishments of Michigan State from 2010 to 2015. But the three best avenues to sustained success in college football are resources (money), access to talent (usually by geographic serendipity) and tradition (which reinforces expectations from fans and administrators that title contention is not just a possibility but should be a reality).

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The three largest stadiums by capacity in the Big Ten (which provide opportunity for greater revenue) are Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State. All three have produced undefeated seasons in the last 25 years (Nebraska, as a member of the Big 12, is the only other Big Ten school that can say the same).

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Even if there isn’t a California, Florida or Texas to provide a bounty of FBS-ready recruits, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania stack up quite well — especially in comparison to some of the less populated states in the Big Ten footprint.

All three are marshaling their advantages now, and while there is always the potential for a spoiler (Wisconsin is easily the top candidate in 2017), this year’s Big Ten drama will probably revolve around the programs run by James Franklin, Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer.

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EAST DIVISION

1. Ohio State (No. 2 nationally, 11-2 in 2016): The Buckeyes’ record last year was their worst under Meyer, which is incredible. He’s 61-6 since coming to Columbus, though it’s worth mentioning Jim Tressel was 56-9 in his last five seasons with the Buckeyes.

The Ohio State steamroller is headed for another 11- or 12-win regular season and is a pick here to reach the College Football Playoff. That’s thanks to an experienced bunch that includes a monster defensive line led by Tyquan Lewis and a veteran quarterback, J.T. Barrett, who has seen just about everything. The Buckeyes get Oklahoma and Penn State at home, and might have their best defense yet under Meyer. This will be a tough bunch to upend.

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2. Penn State (No. 9, 11-3): Offense is the strength here, and it pretty much has been since halftime of a season-changing victory over Minnesota last year. Tailback Saquon Barkley and QB Trace McSorley jump-started a nine-game winning streak, making themselves household names while ensuring Franklin would be a much richer man thanks to a contract extension issued this month.

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There’s enough back on offense (four starters return on the line, as do most of the receiving corps) to ensure any defensive questions will be answered with a decidedly Big 12 attitude. Go ahead and try to score more than the Nittany Lions; most of the teams they’ll face don’t have much of a chance to do so. After a Big Ten title, the next step is a playoff berth, and that’s probably going to require a victory at Ohio State (and about 11 more triumphs along the way).

In the spirit of the times, here’s a new rule for season previews: Analysis of teams cannot be provided until tryouts are complete. Sorry, Michigan, no second paragraph for you.

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4. Michigan State (No. 57, 3-9): The 2016 Spartans were a great case of the eye test failing to match the numbers. Michigan State saw a slight uptick in yardage gained and a slightly larger decline in total yardage allowed. Yet it went from a 12-win playoff team to 3-9.

In reality, seeing the Spartans’ vaunted defense gashed in person at Maryland (granted, one of its worst days of the year) was startling. Michigan State fell well short of its standard last year, and there probably should be some recovery. But it wasn’t especially great at anything last year, and it is young across the board. Bowl bid? Yes. Division contention? Almost certainly not.

5. Indiana (No. 75, 6-7): It’s hard to change an identity overnight without a head coaching change, but the Hoosiers managed to go from an offensive juggernaut that couldn’t stop anybody to a respectable defensive team with an average offense. Credit some of it to Tom Allen, the team’s defensive coordinator for one year who was then promoted after Kevin Wilson was ousted.

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Expect defense to be an even greater strength this year. Tegray Scales should be one of the best linebackers in the conference, and there’s multiple starters back on each defensive unit. If the Hoosiers could just cut down on their turnovers (QB Richard Lagow threw 17 interceptions last season), they’ll have a shot at their first winning record in a decade.

6. Maryland (No. 79, 6-7): Recruiting rankings are swell for those who like to obsess over them. But football isn’t basketball, and it takes time for most freshmen to physically develop. In other words, the Terrapins’ newcomers might play (as most did last year), and some might play well. But a better ETA on a leap in College Park is either 2018 or 2019.

Even if this was an older, veteran team, the schedule would have made earning consecutive bowl bids a tough task. In addition to the three powers in the division, the Terps will face Northwestern and Wisconsin in crossover games and travel to Texas to start the season. With quarterback questions continuing to hover, it could be tough for Maryland to get traction this fall.

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7. Rutgers (No. 105, 2-10): On the subject of teams playing brutal nonconference openers, the Scarlet Knights welcome Washington to the banks of the Raritan next week in a rematch of a 48-13 loss in Seattle last year. That actually ranked in the top of the Rutgers’ offensive outputs last year.

The Scarlet Knights were blanked a combined 224-0 by Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State in 2016. That leaves a long way to go in Chris Ash’s rebuilding project. Simply increasing the victory total, which would mean winning at least one Big Ten game, would constitute progress this year.

WEST DIVISION

1. Wisconsin (No. 14, 11-3): The Badgers lost linebacker Jack Cichy to a season-ending injury in the preseason, and that obviously doesn’t help. Wisconsin is still in good shape to win its fifth division title in seven years and make another run at 10 victories.

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And after a year when the schedule worked against them, the Badgers are in better shape on that front. They get five league home games and don’t face Ohio State or Penn State. If Wisconsin finds an able replacement for TB Corey Clement (and since it is the Badgers, they surely have a few capable rushers in the pipeline), they could deliver another top-10 season under Paul Chryst.

2. Northwestern (No. 29, 7-6): The Wildcats have a bunch back on both sides of the ball, including TB Justin Jackson and a stout defensive line that brings back three starters. Both are keys to Northwestern’s rugged identity: Run, and stop the run.

The running part wasn’t as efficient as the Wildcats would have liked last year, but they still managed to keep three of their losses to a one-possession game. There’s not much fancy here, but with Minnesota, Nebraska and (to a lesser extent) Iowa taking more personnel losses, there’s a chance for Northwestern to move up.

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3. Nebraska (No. 33, 9-4): The Cornhuskers became reacquainted with an old friend last year — the Pelini Line. Nebraska lost exactly four games in each of former coach Bo Pelini’s seven seasons, and after Mike Riley debuted in 2015 with a 6-7 mark, he got the Huskers right back to where they’ve spent the better part of a decade.

Even Alabama isn’t quite as consistent as Nebraska, though the Huskers are certain to look different this season. Riley adapted to his personnel last season (namely QB Tommy Armstrong Jr.), but it’s safe to expect this year’s offense to be a little more pass-oriented. If a more experienced defense with no blatant weaknesses can hold up, Nebraska will find itself in the top half of the division again.

4. Iowa (No. 43, 8-5): This is the sort of program that demands you look first at the returning talent in the trenches and work outward. All five projected offensive line starters have plenty of experience, and three of the four defensive line starters return as well. There’s nothing sexy about what Iowa tries to do, but it’s usually good for seven or eight victories.

Yes, it’s concerning the Hawkeyes have a new quarterback and receiving corps. Yes, the secondary might be a bit vulnerable after some graduation losses. Still, the safe bet is Iowa hands the ball a bunch to Akrum Wadley (a 1,000-yard rusher last season) and slows down enough opponents to secure its normal solid finish. This probably isn’t a year for a random 11-win season in Iowa City, but serious slippage is unlikely as well.

5. Minnesota (No. 50, 9-4): It’s time for some boat-rowing in Minneapolis, where P.J. Fleck begins his first season after taking Western Michigan to the Cotton Bowl last year. It’s not a bad time to install some new ideas, even with a team coming off its best season in more than a decade. After all, the defense brings back less than half its starters and there will be a new quarterback and modest experience among the receivers.

Minnesota is still built to run, with Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks a formidable one-two punch out of the backfield and a largely tested offensive line. The Golden Gophers should be better over the long haul with Fleck, though a minor step back wouldn’t come as a surprise in 2017.

6. Purdue (No. 91, 3-9): The Boilermakers’ biggest win last year didn’t come against Eastern Kentucky, Illinois or Nevada. Rather, it was securing the services of Coach Jeff Brohm, who is coming off a 30-10 run at Western Kentucky.

Not a lot has gone right in eight years since Joe Tiller’s tenure ended in West Lafayette, but Brohm is the program’s first coach with multiple winning seasons at an FBS school since … well, Tiller. Purdue is a meager 3-30 in the Big Ten over the last four years, but it’s still situated in the right division. Brohm inherits a decent (if interception-prone) quarterback in David Blough, but there’s a lot of youth and question marks. This will not be a rapid turnaround, though the Boilermakers should be more competitive this fall.

7. Illinois (No. 100, 3-9): It’s popular to point to college coaches who flame out in the pros (this is a merry sport for those who follow both the NFL and the NBA), but there’s never a guarantee those moves work in reverse, either. And while ex-Bears and Bucs coach Lovie Smith didn’t have much to work with in his first year at Illinois, the Illini still took a noticeable step back.

That’s part of the price of having three head coaches in a span of seven months, but it will still be a young team that tries to drag itself closer to bowl eligibility. Illinois wasn’t an effective offensive team and struggled to stop the run. There’s a lot to fix, and it’s possible things get a little bit worse before they get better in Champaign.

A previous version of this story incorrectly reported that Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan have all won a national title in the last 25 years. Penn State went undefeated in 1994 but finished No. 2 in the major polls that crowned the national champion at the time.