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Has the coronavirus pandemic “peaked” in the US?

Oliver Milman, an environment reporter for Guardian in New York, has some analysis on the progression of the coronavirus pandemic in the US.



A model relied upon by the White House, from the University of Washington, estimates that the virus will “peter out” in May and then essentially grind to a halt by the summer. This is based on the experiences of China and Italy, previous coronavirus hotspots.



But this model, like all predictions, is dynamic and depends upon the application of measures such as social distancing to slow the rate of transmission. Other forecasts have been more pessimistic, warning that it will be difficult to tame the spread of the virus until well after summer. Premature relaxation of restrictions on gatherings of people could see a second, much more severe, increase in infections.

The sheer size of the US, as well as its large population, means that there will be several ‘peaks’ at different times across the country. While the situation may be starting to stabilize somewhat in New York, areas in the heart of the country have yet to see the worst of the virus.”That is going to be confusing for people,” said Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. “If wow, New York had all these deaths and they are opening up, why aren’t we opening? That will be a communication challenge for us, but we have to just keep monitoring and see where we are going on this.”

Updated at 12.41 EDT