Paul's age gap

Aaron Blake spotted a remarkable figure in some polling out of Iowa today: "Ron Paul wins more than 50 percent of 18-29 and 30-44 year olds, but less than 12% of 45-64 and 65+."

A Republican operative who is not working for Paul emails to make the case that this is why Paul's poll numbers are overstated: Republican primaries and caucuses have never seen young voters show up and pick the winner.

And:

Caucus is people standing up & being seen where they stand...12 percent of over 45 may even be high...no neighbor wants people to know they're with this guy. Obama had enough mainline/older voter support as well...Paul just doesn't.

This sounds, superficially, like what Clinton aides were saying when they now-notoriously dismissed Obama's crowds of supporters in Iowa in 2008 as "Facebook" -- kids who wouldn't show up. But Obama really was a broad national youth phenomenon; Paul may not be. And the Democratic Party, of course, skews far younger than the GOP.