There are battle lines drawn firmly in the ongoing war between The Analytics Community and The Hockey Guys, and neither side ever wants to lose a skirmish.

The mainstream acceptance of analytics is still in its infancy, so every season we’re presented with several different canaries in several different coal mines so both sides can test their validity. Hence the scrutiny of John Chayka as Arizona’s kid genius general manager. Hence the overreactions to puck possession anomalies in the 2017 postseason, where great Corsi teams usually win but where four games of unbeatable goaltending can buck any trend.

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Hence the grave dancing on Randy Carlyle, a.k.a. a fancy stats denier a.k.a. the old fuddy duddy who can’t work a toaster, when he was hired by the Anaheim Ducks to replace Bruce Boudreau last year. Absolutely nothing brings out the pom-poms for The Computer Boys and Girls faster than seeing an old-school coach with seemingly no regard for puck possession flop hard. (See Tortorella, John.)

Doom was predicted.

“Once upon a time, Carlyle may have been capable of leading a team to the Cup — but that clearly isn’t the case today,” said Neil Greenberg, advanced stats guy and Washington Post columnist. “In fact, the reason for Carlyle’s inability to coach in the modern NHL is simple: he doesn’t believe in what works.”

“Carlyle isn’t a good replacement, if we’re weighing the odds of success,” wrote James Mirtle, then with the Globe & Mail. “Carlyle’s issues in Toronto were tactical, not personal. The crash-and-bang style the Ducks won with nine years ago wasn’t high on x’s and o’s, and with a weaker roster in Toronto, Carlyle was exposed as a poor systems coach. Increasingly, those types are being culled from the game. As evidenced by the Pittsburgh Penguins winning the Stanley Cup with speed, finesse and an emphasis on puck possession, the NHL has changed dramatically in the nine years since the Ducks last won it all.”

“Maybe this will finally be the stint that puts the nail in the coffin of Randy Carlyle’s career coaching in the NHL. Either way, I don’t see any situation where the Ducks improve on their season next year with Carlyle at the helm instead of Boudreau,” wrote Ryan Hobart of The Leafs Nation.

I picked the Ducks fifth in the Pacific and the Kings first, which in hindsight was obviously some sort of graphic design error and not actually what I … no, actually I was right there with the rest of the fancy stats true believers. Going from Bruce Boudreau, who got it, to Randy Carlyle, who didn’t get it with the Toronto Maple Leafs, was going to be a leap backward.

Except it wasn’t. The Ducks finished with 105 points, first in the Pacific. They sit six wins away from their second Stanley Cup, the first one coming in 2007 with Carlyle behind the bench. We were right: The Ducks went from fifth in the regular season in 5-on-5 puck possession with a 52.5 percent Corsi under Boudreau to 19th with a 49.7 percent Corsi under Carlyle. And it didn’t matter.

Seeing Randy Carlyle succeed with the Ducks is like seeing a couple that broke up rekindle what they had. And you’re all like, “No, this is wrong, this didn’t work out and now they’re different people,” and your buddy’s like, “I don’t know, they look pretty happy,” and you’re like, “no, this is a mistake and it makes no sense,” and your buddy’s like, “[Expletive] man, it’s love.”

Your 2016-17 Anaheim Ducks, folks.

So why has it worked?

View photos NASHVILLE, TN – MAY 16: Head coach Randy Carlyle of the Anaheim Ducks reacts during the second period in Game Three of the Western Conference Final against the Nashville Predators during the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bridgestone Arena on May 16, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) More

Let’s start with the obvious, which is that Anaheim is not Toronto.

Carlyle can make a move and not have every media outlet in the entire province scrutinize it. This was before the teardown and rebuild, before Auston Matthews. This is what Carlyle called the most high-pressure job he’s ever held, and that’s not an easy environment to coach in. “The intensity level was, at times, could be overbearing, just from a standpoint of everything you did was news,” Carlyle said last year.

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