Randy Tucker wants to hear two things from the Democratic presidential candidates lobbying Iowa union members for support: "First, I want someone who's not afraid to say the word 'union.'"

"And, second, I want someone who isn't afraid to say the word 'union,'" said Tucker, a member of IBEW Local 347, after listening to Montana Gov. Steve Bullock at a reception in May.

Tucker is getting his wish. Nearly two dozen Democratic presidential hopefuls are vying for Iowa's more than 100,000 union member votes, touting their support for collective bargaining, worker rights and social justice as they crisscross the state. Their fight in Iowa, which went for Republican President Donald Trump in 2016, is emblematic of the Democrats' national battle to win back labor votes.

The Democratic presidential candidates have gone further than just uttering the wordunion.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont both have marched with striking McDonald's workers in Iowa, pushing for higher wages and union representation.

Former Vice President Joe Biden even held a rally at the UAW union hall in Waterloo.

“I’ve got to be blunt with you. I’m a union guy,” Biden told the United Auto Workers. “Unions are the ones who built the middle class. I know it. You know it."

Labor vote up for grabs

Winning the labor vote is not the slam-dunk Democrats experienced in past decades.

Trump snagged 38.4% of the union vote in 2016, 8 percentage points more than presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012, according to FiveThirtyEight, a website focused on opinion poll analysis.

While Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won 55.2% of labor's vote in 2016, that was 9.6 percentage points less than former President Barack Obama's share four years earlier.

And some Democratic proposals, such as "Medicare for All," concern union members who fear the universal health care plan could eliminate hard-fought medical benefits they've negotiated over decades, leaders say.

"That’s the tricky thing," said Paul Frymer, a politics professor at Princeton University. "Because they're in unions, workers get benefits that other Americans don't have — good health care, retirement packages.

"So something like Medicare for All can threaten that," he said.

Unions still have people power

About 69,000 fewer Iowa workers belong to unions now than nearly 30 years ago, federal labor data show. Union members make up 7.7% of the total workforce, down from 15.2% in 1989.

Nationally, unions have lost nearly 2 million members over the same time, dropping to 14.7 million workers. They've shrunk from 16.4% of the workforce to 10.5%.

Iowa's public employee unions have been weakened as well, with the Republican-controlled Legislature two years ago limiting collective bargaining to just negotiating wages.

"Unions are becoming less and less of a factor for Democrats," said Steffen Schmidt, an Iowa State University political science professor.

"Twenty, 30, 40 years ago, they used to be a big change-maker for Democrats," he said. "But that's no longer true."

Even with shrinking numbers, union members can make a big difference in winning an election, labor leaders and experts say.

Candidates "understand that this is a large block of folks they want on their side," said Danny Homan, president of AFSCME Council 61.

"We can't compete with the Koch brothers when it comes to money," Homan said. "But we have something the Koch brothers don't.

"That's people who are willing to use their shoe leather, their knuckles, and their mouths to support a candidate," he said. "Unions provide people power."

Tucker said a lot of rank-and-file members supported Sanders in 2016, when national leaders endorsed Clinton. "When Sanders didn't get the nomination, they flipped" to Trump, he said.

Ken Sagar, the Iowa Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO, president, acknowledges losing members to Trump.

The president, he said, picked up issues in the last election that "trade unions have espoused for decades."

"He talked about trade, he talked about American jobs, he talked about infrastructure," said Sagar, whose group is hosting 19 candidates at its annual convention Wednesday at the Prairie Meadows Hotel in Altoona.

"Our message truly did win," he said. "Regrettably, the candidate who picked it up and ran with it wasn't the one who would actually do what was necessary to meet the needs of the working class."

A bigger problem was that thousands of union voters didn't vote, Sagar said. "Those are the people we have to wake up."

Are candidates connecting?

Like the broader population, unions can lean more conservative or liberal, depending on the group, said Schmidt, the ISU political science professor.

"The new, more progressive Democrats ... don't connect that well with some conservative unions," he said. "That's the struggle that Democrats have, selling themselves to labor unions in 2019."

Tucker said some union members he talks with are uneasy with such proposals as erasing college debt, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, or establishing more lenient immigration laws, including giving amnesty to undocumented workers already in the country.

Some members worry about increased job competition with more open immigration policies. And more workers could depress wages, they fear. "They've pulled themselves up by their bootstraps," and think others should as well, Tucker said.

And members would be more likely to support Medicare for All proposals that allow Americans to keep their private medical insurance, while allowing access to a government-backed health care insurance option for those without.

That could add support for more moderate candidates like Biden, the polling leader who has backed expanding the Obama-era Affordable Care Act.

"I just don't feel I can convince our men to vote for somebody who's Medicare for All,"

said Tucker, a membership development coordinator at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers local.

"We have a strong insurance program," he said. "We're not for that."

Debt-forgiveness appeals

Monique Cottman, an eastern Iowa teacher, likes the idea of student loan forgiveness or tuition assistance.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sanders have strongly advocated for eliminating more than a $1 trillion in student debt. Other candidates are backing ways to make tuition more affordable.

Cottman, who's a member of the Iowa State Education Association, doesn't want loan forgiveness for herself — she no longer has student loans — but for future teachers.

"We have a lot of people who are leaving the profession because of financial reasons," she said.

"It could be a game-changer for young students who are considering whether they want to be a teacher," said Cottman, whose own parents were concerned she wouldn't be able to support herself.

Higher minimum wage lifts everyone

Sagar said Iowa workers tell the union they care about jobs, health care, education and retirement.

A lot of Iowa families are struggling to survive, said Sagar, pointing to about 196,000 Iowa students who qualified for free or reduced lunches last year. (The state says it's about 40% of the 486,264 students enrolled.

"We have a lot of people working, but they have to work multiple jobs to sustain their families," he said.

Most candidates support raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, with Warren, U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Castro and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee striking with workers at events across the country.

Homan, the local AFSCME president, said workers should back initiatives like raising the minimum wage. "We need to lift everybody up," he said.

"If the minimum wage goes to 15 bucks, there will be more money for people to spend, which just creates more jobs, and more better-paying jobs for folks who earn above $15," Homan said.

Frymer said the economy could become a major issue for the president if it begins to decline.

The U.S.'s escalating trade war with China has pulled down the stock market, worsened corn and soybean prices for farmers, and has economists worried the U.S. could be facing a recession.

"Trump support hasn’t been all that great. He's rarely been above 50% in the polls ... so if he loses a strong economy, he loses one of his biggest chips," Frymer said. "A recession could really tip things."

'Too many friends'

With so many union supporters running, Homan said AFSCME Council 61 won't endorse a presidential candidate for the Iowa caucuses for the first time in about three decades.

Biden already has won the International Association of Fire Fighters' endorsement.

Other candidates are making strong appeals to union members: Buttigieg wants to expand union membership, in part by changing the law so "gig-economy" or contract workers can unionize.

Candidates like Bullock, a labor attorney, and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the daughter of a union teacher and newspaperman, have strong ties to unions.

"There are too many running who are friends of ours," Homan said. "There's a cadre of candidates that we've supported time and time again.

"It's extremely difficult to say, 'We pick this one,'" he said.

Connecting with labor

The Iowa Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO, will host 19 presidential candidates at its annual convention at Prairie Meadows Hotel in Altoona, beginning at 9 a.m. Wednesday. The event is open to all union members.

Reporter Stephen Gruber-Miller contributed to this article.

Donnelle Eller covers agriculture, the environment and energy for the Register. Reach her at deller@registermedia.com or 515-284-8457.

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