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He has made legitimate criticisms of Mr. Kabila’s regime, but has also shocked outsiders with some inflammatory comments. At one point, he declared himself president and promised that Mr. Kabila would not win under any circumstances. He also urged his supporters to break their fellow “fighters” out of prison after some were arrested during protests (though he did cool his rhetoric after that).

“It would be a disaster if [Mr. Tshisekedi] were to win. All he’s offering is uncertainty and instability,” said Bene M’Poko, the DRC’s ambassador to South Africa and an occasional government spokesman.

On the other hand, a presidential change could be welcome news for Vancouver-based First Quantum and other companies doing business in the Congo, especially now that the opposition is speaking up about the BVI shell deals. First Quantum is in the midst of international arbitration with the Kabila government over its expropriated assets, and it is not clear what the outcome of that proceeding would be if the government changes.

“We appreciate Mr. Joyce’s efforts to raise these issues and hope that the IMF and World Bank take notice,” First Quantum president Clive Newall said.

The International Monetary Fund definitely has. It extended a US$551-million loan to the Congo in 2009, and one of the conditions was that the government provide more transparency in its resource sector. “It would seem that some of these [BVI] sales have been carried out in violation of that condition,” Mr. Stearns said.

However, the IMF has yet to make a fuss about the deals, even saying in April that the government is making progress in its transparency. But Mr. Stearns says the people at the IMF are quietly unhappy with the developments. If the IMF does decide to apply more diplomatic pressure, that could have an enormous impact on the country.

Speaking on behalf of the government, Mr. M’Poko rejected all the allegations from Mr. Joyce and the anonymous report, and said they are not being taking seriously. “Not at all,” he said. He also suggested First Quantum may be funding the opposition.