Chris Woodyard

USA TODAY

An influential analyst is warning of a "reasonable risk" that Tesla will again push back the expected delivery date of its Model X electric luxury crossover. Now, he hints, deliveries might not start until the fall of next year.

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley told investors in a note that the "slight delay" until the third quarter will help ensure quality and performance in the initial units.

A delay will force the company to continue to depend on a single product, the Model S sedan, to sustain it well into next year. The only other model that the electric car maker has announced, the Model 3, a mass-market sedan, isn't due for a couple more years.

Jonas is careful to point out that his forecast is not shared by Tesla, which has held to predictions that Model X will begin deliveries earlier in 2015. But the Model X's expected debut has already slid: Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the vehicle's schedule has been complicated by making sure some of its innovations will work properly, especially the gullwing-style rear doors.

Musk is scheduled to speak at a forum at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit in January, a hint that it's likely that the production version of the Model X will make its debut there. It has been shown in concept form only so far.

Jonas expresses enthusiasm about the Model X.

"We expect the Model X to go dynamite fishing in the global premium SUV segment," he writes. "While the entry price could be 5% to 10% above the entry-level (listed manufacturer's price) of today's Model S, we expect the Model X to be loaded with far higher levels of standard equipment, particularly in areas of comfort, safety and drivetrain."

Jonas has a $320 target on Tesla shares, which were trading Thursday at about $225.