REPUBLICANS have been busy for a while now tarring Barack Obama as a free-spending Democrat whose spendthrift ways threaten the economy. I suspect that the White House's decision to elevate deficit reduction as a priority early last year was at least somewhat motivated by this charge and the perception of a vulnerability on the issue. So as potential Republican presidential candidates begin previewing their general election campaigns, it's clear that Mr Obama was right to be worried about this seeming deficit weakness, right?

Wrong!

The biggest threat to the president's reelection is obviously the state of the economy, and if it wasn't clear to Mr Obama's advisers before, it should be now. Mitt Romney may actually be doing the president a favour, here, by exposing this vulnerability so effectively when it's not yet too late for the administration to do something about ongoing economic weakness.

What's interesting to me is that I think that Ben Bernanke has a point when he argues that the recent economic downshift is likely to prove temporary. Commodity prices are softening as emerging markets pull back on growth. Rising petrol costs cancelled out the beneficial effect of last year's payroll tax cut in the early months of this year; as they subside a bit, that previous cut may gain a renewed potency. Japan's economy may snap back in coming months, providing a boost to American firms. And there are signs of life in housing markets. If the administration were to win another payroll cut as part of the debt-ceiling negotiations, that could reinforce any emerging positive trend, leading to a meaningfully brighter picture for the economy—and the Obama presidency—going into 2012. If nothing else, it could prove a crucial piece of growth insurance against future shocks, the difference between a close race and a Republican romp.

Either way, a hard push for a new piece of stimulus is a no-brainer for the president. The jig is up. Forget the deficit; the GOP plans to use unemployment to batter Mr Obama into the ranks of one-term presidents.