July 4, 2007, 2:11 pm

The purpose of this paper is to provide a layman's critique

of the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory, and in particular to

challenge the fairly widespread notion that the science and projected

consequences of AGW currently justify massive spending and government

intervention into the world's economies. This paper will show that

despite good evidence that global temperatures are rising and that CO2 can act

as a greenhouse gas and help to warm the Earth, we are a long way from

attributing all or much of current warming to man-made CO2. We are even

further away from being able to accurately project man's impact on future

climate, and it is a very debatable question whether interventions today to

reduce CO2 emissions will substantially improve the world 50 or 100 years from

now.

Update: If you would like to start with the 60-second version of this long paper, try here first.

Note you may click on any of the chapter links below to see the full chapter in HTML, or see below for links to free pdf versions available for download.

. 4Table of

Contents for A Layman's Guide to Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)

. 5Chapter 1:

Summary of Global Warming Skeptics Position

. 7Chapter

2: Is It OK to be a Global Warming Skeptic? 8

Charges of Bias

The Climate Trojan Horse

The Need to Exaggerate

. 13Chapter 3:

The Basics of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Theory

. 16Chapter

4: The Historical Evidence for Man-Made Global Warming

16

The long view (650,000 years)

The medium view (1000 years)

The short view (100 years)

Sulfates, Aerosols and Dimming

The troposphere and Urban heat islands

Using Computer Models to Explain the Past

. 34Chapter

5: The Climate Computer Models and Predicting Future Temperatures

. 35

The Dangers in Modeling Complex Systems

Do Model Outputs Constitute Scientific Proof?

Econometrics and CO2 Forecasts

Climate Sensitivity and the Role of Positive Feedbacks

Climate Models have to be Aggressively Tweaked to Match History

. 45Chapter

6: Alternate Explanations and Models for Global Warming

. 45

Solar Irradiance

Cosmic Rays

Man's Land Use

. 52Chapter

7: The Effects of Global Warming

. 52

Why only bad stuff?

Ice melting / Oceans Rising

Hurricanes & Tornadoes

Temperature Extremes

Extinction and Disease

Collapse of the Gulf Stream and Freezing of Europe

Non-warming Effects of CO2

. 64Chapter

8: Kyoto and Climate Change Policy Alternatives

. 64

Kyoto

Cost of the Solutions vs. the Benefits: Why Warmer but Richer may be Better than Colder and Pooer

Chapter 9:

Rebuttals by Man-Made Global Warming Theory Supporters

For those interested in getting a copy of my A Skeptical Layman's Guide to Anthropogenic Global Warming, I greatly encourage you to download it for free. However, I do know that some folks have written about a print version. I have a print version of my global warming book available now at LuLu.com.

It is $16.98 -- that is my cost -- and I warn you that LuLu's shipping

options are not very cheap. I will try to find a less expensive print

option, but no one beats LuLu for getting a book set up quickly and

easily for print-to-order.

The open comment thread for this paper can be found here.