Any gains made by the King St. pilot project will likely be moot if 6 per cent or more of future residents along the line take the streetcar, a new study from Ryerson University has found.

The problem is that transit cannot keep pace with development, said Diana Petramala, senior researcher at Ryerson’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, calling the issue a “mismatch.”

“What we’re seeing here is that they’ve put a lot of development along the King. St. corridor, and now you basically have the streetcar operating at its full capacity and still have an overcrowding problem,” she said.

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The King St. pilot project seeks to make the service more reliable between Bathurst and Jarvis Sts., cutting down east-west travel times.

According to TTC’s March update, 85 per cent of streetcars travelling west arrive within four minutes during morning commutes; travel times have improved by five minutes in each direction during the evening.

But Petramala noted that King St. streetcars travelling eastbound are now running six seconds slower during the morning rush hour than they did prior to the pilot project, indicating an already stressed line.

“Density is good,” Petramala said. “What’s better, I think, is a more milder density spread out across the region, as opposed to directing so much construction to one small pocket.”

The study is based on 8,000 residential units under construction within 400 metres of the entire King St. corridor. It excluded new office space, meaning overcrowding could be more severe.

Toronto Star reporters Ben Spurr and Tamar Harris rode the TTC's King streetcar along the pilot project route and drove a car on corresponding streets to see if travel times have changed during the morning rush hours. (Toronto Star)

Toronto has seen rapid housing growth for years, particularly along King St., which has caused transit infrastructure to “creak under the pressure” because it hasn’t seen corresponding investments, said Matti Siemiatycki, an associate professor at the University of Toronto, whose expertise includes urban and transportation planning.

“The King St. pilot frees up some additional transit capacity, but not nearly enough,” he said. “I think we’re starting to experience the crowding and the challenges. Growth is continuing along this corridor and it’s only going to exacerbate the challenge in that area.”

Siemiatycki said transit should be given the priority, especially in the downtown core, but making neighbourhoods more pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly is also necessary.

Coun. Joe Cressy said the pilot project is not a panacea: it’s but one measure that must work in tandem with others — such as Toronto’s recently approved SmartTrack plan — to offset pressure on the system.

“Not one of these on their own will solve the growing challenges of movement, but taken together they’re all part of the solution,” he said.

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Cressy said 41 per cent of downtown residents walk or bike to work, whereas 34 per cent take transit, and, when you look south of Queen St., “the number of those who walk or cycle to work is even higher.”

This was the rationale behind the city’s official plan to increase density in the area, he said.

“The only way we’re going to be able to get people in and out of the core, where they work and where they study, is by prioritizing active transportation, and that means walking, cycling and public transit,” he said, adding that one million residents are expected to come to the city in the next 25 years.

“There is not space to widen the roads.”

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