Should they stay or should they go? Climate Migrants and Local Conflicts

NBER Working Paper No. 24447

Issued in March 2018

NBER Program(s):Environment and Energy Economics, International Trade and Investment, Labor Studies



There is extensive evidence that higher temperature increases the probability of local conflict. There is also some evidence that emigration represents an important margin of adaptation to climatic change. In this paper we analyse whether migration influences the link between warming and conflicts by either attenuating the effects in countries of origin and/or by spreading them to countries of destination. We find that in countries where emigration propensity, as measured by past diaspora, was higher, increases in temperature had a smaller effects on conflict probability, consistent with emigration functioning as "escape valve" for local tensions. We find no evidence that climate-induced migration increased the probability of conflict in receiving countries.

Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24447