Democrat Margaret Good, our candidate to flip HD-72 on February 13, 2018.

A swing district in a swing region of Florida. A well-funded, top-tier candidate. The chance to flip another seat to Democratic control. Are the stars aligning for a pickup in Florida’s 72nd State House District on Tuesday, February 13, 2018?

Following Republican State Representative Alex Miller’s resignation in fall of last year, a special election was scheduled to replace her in this swing seat based in Sarasota, Florida. A win here by our nominee, attorney Margaret Good, would be our 17th special election flip in a state legislative race. Even more importantly, a win here would bode well for Florida Democrats’ chances later this year, up and down the ballot.

Does Good have the goods? I think so, for the reasons I’ll outline below, which is why I’m comfortable rating this race as Tossup/Tilt Democratic. But we’ll find out soon enough.

District Background

Florida’s 72nd State House District.

Florida’s 72nd State House District is based in southwestern Florida and is located entirely within Sarasota County. The core of the district’s population is in the City of Sarasota. However, Sarasota’s precincts are spread out over three different districts, including HD-72. HD-71, held by Republican Jim Boyd, and HD-70, held by Democrat Wengay Newton, each pull some precincts from the city. HD-70, a black opportunity district located in Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Sarasota Counties, pulls many of the city’s predominantly black precincts.

In the last few years, Democrats have done well in Sarasota municipal elections, winning control of all five City Commission seats in 2015 for the first time in decades, and maintaining that control in last year’s municipal elections.

That strength hasn’t trickled up to county-wide races, however. Republicans control every County Commission seat — and they have for decades — and hold every other countywide office. The one exception is Tax Collector Barbara Ford-Coates, a Democrat who has held the position since 1984.

Part of the reason for this Republican dominance in county politics is that, unlike many other Florida counties, Sarasota County has long been a Republican stronghold. In every single presidential, gubernatorial, and Senate election since 1950, Sarasota County has voted to the right of the state. Relative to their statewide performance, Democrats have dramatically improved in Sarasota over the last half-century, but the county still remains light red, and stubbornly so.

The good news is that HD-72 isn’t quite so reliably Republican-voting. While Sarasota County voted for Trump 54-42, HD-72 only voted for Trump 51-46. In fact, HD-72 is a swing district and usually votes quite similarly to the statewide margin, though it has a slight Republican lean. In the table below, I compared the results of statewide races in HD-72 against the overall results. Since 2012, the district has voted for the statewide winner in 5 of 7 elections, and for the statewide loser in just 2: Charlie Crist in 2014 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

HD-72 Results versus Statewide Results HD-72 Results Statewide results PVI 2016-PRES. 51-46 (R) 49-48 (R) R+4 2014-GOV. 48-47 (D) 48-47 (R) D+2 2014-Atty. gen. 56-41 (R) 55-42 (R) R+2 2014-AG. comm. 60-40 (R) 59-41 (R) R+2 2014-CFO 59-41 (R) 59-41 (R) EVEN 2012-PRES. 51-48 (R) 50-49 (D) R+4 2012-SEN. 53-45 (D) 55-42 (D) R+5

Unlike many of the other districts in southwest Florida, which lurched to the right, HD-72 actually stayed pretty steady. Trump’s margin statewide (+1) was 2 points better than Romney’s margin statewide (-1), and the margin in HD-72 reflects that. However, even with such close races at the top of the ticket, Democrats still face challenges in light red districts like this. Though Hillary was narrowly losing this district, 46-51, our Democratic nominee for the State House in 2016, Edward James, lost in a landslide, 42-58. James was well-funded and was a top-tier candidate.

It’s reasonable to conclude that Trump’s approval rating is probably underwater, even though the only available public poll didn’t ask about it. This isn’t such a solidly-Republican district that the Republican candidate would be able to win here regardless of the national environment. Indeed, though the 2002-2012 district lines were slightly different, Democrat Keith Fitzgerald was able to win here in both 2006 and 2008, and only narrowly lost, 51.5%-48.5%, to Republican Ray Pilon in 2010.

In other words, this is a winnable district in a favorable national environment.

Pessimists are likely to point out that Florida Democrats have underperformed Hillary’s 2016 results in last year’s special elections, in the Miami-based SD-40 and HD-116, and in HD-44, based in the wealthy suburbs of Orlando. It’s absolutely true — but those districts are different from HD-72. While Cuban-American voters in Miami are more willing to vote for Democrats in presidential elections — Hillary was perhaps the first Democrat ever to win some of the heavily Cuban-American districts — they’re much more willing to vote for Republicans in downballot races. In HD-44, it’s a similar story: the wealthy, suburban voters who live in Windermere and Winter Garden have long been willing to vote for Republican candidates. But the story of our 2017 loss there, in which our nominee underperformed Hillary by 7 points, is more district-specific.

Our original nominee in HD-44 faced residency issues and dropped out of the race. He was replaced as the nominee by a more energetic candidate, but it was too late to remove his name from the ballot. Our replacement nominee was forced to build a campaign from scratch over just several weeks, and though he raised good money for that time period, he was dramatically outspent.

This district is different. As outlined above, though Republicans have downballot strength here, it’s nowhere near as strong as in the heavily Cuban-American parts of Miami or in the wealthy suburbs of Orlando. Even more relevantly, our nominee has had time to built an impressive warchest and a strong campaign. You might even say that our nominee is...Good.

The Candidates

Attorney and community leader Margaret Good, our nominee.

Our nominee in this race is Good — attorney Margaret Good. She’s a fifth-generation Floridian, an associate with Matthews Eastmoore, and currently serves as a board member of the Sarasota County Bar Association. Though Good is a first-time candidate, she’s already flexed her strength and proved her effectiveness. She faced a competitive primary against fellow Democrat Ruta Jouniari, a Sarasota businesswoman. Good and Jouniari ran respectful and civil campaigns, and in the end, Good won convincingly over Jouniari, 72-28.

In the general election, Good faces off against the Republican nominee, James Buchanan, a real estate agent and the son of Congressman Vern Buchanan. It goes without saying that the younger Buchanan, while also a first-time candidate, is well-connected — he was unopposed in the Republican primary and has raised over $385,000 for his campaign, which is quite a bit for a special election. But Buchanan had a bit of a head start: He was initially running in the regularly-scheduled 2018 election for a neighboring State House seat held by a term-limited Republican.

Good, meanwhile, has been in the race only since September 15, 2017, and has raised almost $500,000 in that time period. In December, she decisively outraised Buchanan, $107,000 to $56,000, and did so even more decisively in January, $257,000 to $104,000, and that includes a check for $34,000 that Buchanan wrote to himself.

The Race

As a preliminary matter, it’s helpful to remember that, even though this is a swing seat, it’s Republican-leaning and that Trump won here in 2016, 51-46. The only public polling in this race comes from St. Pete Polls and seems to confirm a slight Republican edge, putting Buchanan up over Good, 49-46, with the Libertarian candidate winning 3%. However, as David has pointed out before, St. Pete Polls doesn’t have the cleanest track record, so take this poll — which, at this point, is outdated, given that it was conducted on January 23 — with a grain of salt. So an upset win is entirely possible (and I think slightly likely), and the statistics on absentee and early votes bear that out so far.

Though Trump won here in 2016, the lion’s share of his margin came from a strong performance on Election Day: Republicans decisively outvoted Democrats on Election Day and in the early vote, even though the turnout in absentee ballot returns was a lot closer, as the table below shows.

2016 Party Turnout by Vote Type absentee votes percentage early votes percentage E-Day votes percentage total total Democrats 12,844 39.85% 10,436 33.13% 7,693 25.53% 30,973 33.00% republicans 13,343 41.40% 14,146 44.90% 14,912 49.48% 42,401 45.17% others 6,042 18.75% 6,922 21.97% 7,533 25.00% 20,497 21.84% total 32,229 31,504 30,138 93,871

As the table shows, absentee, early, and Election Day vote shares were about equal, each representing about a third of the total votes cast. And though Republicans outvoted Democrats in each method of voting, the Republican margin was much, much narrower in absentee votes — only 41-40, versus a 45-33 margin in the early vote and a 49-26 margin in the Election Day vote.

This was true of the Florida results as a whole — Democrats did better in non-Election Day votes, and got crushed on Election Day. However, as Florida election analyst Matthew Isbell has pointed out, in the 2017 special elections, the exact opposite was true.

In SD-40, for example, Annette Taddeo lost the absentee vote 53-45. She won the early vote in a landslide, 67-32, and won the Election Day vote convincingly, 59-40. Overall, Taddeo won 51-47.

HD-44 told a similar, but slightly different story. Republican Bobby Olszewski won the early vote 59-41 and the absentee vote 60-40, but narrowly lost the Election Day vote, 52-48. Overall, Olszewski won by a relatively wide 56-44 margin.

The overall lesson of both these elections is that Democrats did much, much better on Election Day than they did in 2016. It’s hard to tell why, exactly, that was, but it’s a trend to be aware of.

So how does the absentee and early vote picture look so far? Well, with early voting completed as of February 10, and with just a few more days left for the Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections to receive absentee ballots, we have a pretty good idea.

2018 Special Election party turnout by vote type (as of 2/11/18) absentee votes percentage early votes percentage Democrats 8,936 42.83% 2,830 43.11% republicans 9,374 44.92% 2,545 38.77% others 2,497 12.25% 1,190 18.13% total 20,866 6,565

Democrats took an early lead in returned absentee ballots, but they were overtaken by Republicans in late January. However, Matthew Isbell and Steve Schale make a good point: Democrats have done a better job returning their ballots than Republicans have.

As of Sunday, 73.45% of Democrats have returned their ballots, while only 70.54% have. While this gap is relatively narrow, and necessarily excludes the folks who were mailed absentee ballots but voted early, it could matter in a down-to-the-wire race. Indeed, Democratic turnout, as Schale notes, is about 5% higher than Republican turnout.

Compared to 2016 absentee ballot return, Republicans have expanded their margin slightly. They edged out Democrats by 1.55% in absentee returns, while this year, they have a 2.08% edge. This could decrease over the next few days as a few hundred additional ballots are received by the county.

Hot Take Alert: I’m not concerned that Republicans have a bigger advantage this year with absentee ballots than they did in 2016. Why? Because they’re down in the early vote.

In 2016, Republicans had a pretty wide, 11.78% edge in the early vote. But that hasn’t been the case in this race: with early voting concluded, Democrats have a 4.34% edge over Republicans, thanks to a surge on the last day of early voting. That’s a pretty big change—a 16.12% swing!—from 2016. Or, to put it another way: at this point in 2016, Republicans had a combined 6.60% edge with absentee and early votes combined. As of now, they only have a 0.56% edge.

I’m skeptical about going too far in predicting what this means. As Schale notes, Republicans swamped Democrats in 2012, 2014, and 2016 with Election Day votes. But the size of that inevitable swamping matters. If Buchanan wins Election Day votes by 24%, like Trump did, then I think that he wins. But if his Election Day margin is smaller, in the neighborhood of 6%, like Rick Scott did in 2014, then I think Good wins by a decisive margin.

Unsurprisingly, however, this will come down to the Election Day vote. Did Democrats cannibalize their Election Day vote, as they likely did in 2016? Or they simply more excited about voting? By what margin will Buchanan win the Election Day vote?

Final Thoughts

I think that Good will come out ahead, though perhaps not by much. On a personal level, she’s a stellar candidate with a strong base of support in the community. Her campaign has run smoothly, and has done an excellent job of getting her voters to the polls. Assuming that the breakdown of vote type—absentee, early, Election Day—this year is comparable to 2016, Republicans would have to do pretty well on Tuesday to come out ahead. If they win the Election Day vote decisively enough, they can squeak out a win. It’s possible that they’ll do that...but I think it’s likelier than not that they won’t. A few factors give me optimism:

First, the national environment is more favorable to Democrats this year than it was in 2016. Our string of special election wins proves that more than anything else. If Good outperforms Hillary’s 2016 performance by, say, 15%, like other Democratic nominees have in special elections, she’ll comfortably win. Even assuming that Good’s outpeformance is smaller, in the neighborhood of 5%, she’ll still win. But I think the best indicator of the better environment this year is what kind of campaign Good is running — she’s staking out a bold position on climate change, which will uniquely affect HD-72, and she’s campaigning against Donald Trump.

Our string of special election wins proves that more than anything else. If Good outperforms Hillary’s 2016 performance by, say, 15%, like other Democratic nominees have in special elections, she’ll comfortably win. Even assuming that Good’s outpeformance is smaller, in the neighborhood of 5%, she’ll still win. But I think the best indicator of the better environment this year is what kind of campaign Good is running — she’s staking out a bold position on climate change, which will uniquely affect HD-72, and she’s campaigning against Donald Trump. Second, I believe that there’s an enthusiasm gap between the two parties based on turnout so far. Here’s why I’m confident in that prediction: Democrats are doing better in combined absentee and early voting this year than in 2016. If you looked at the 2016 numbers—41-40 Republican lead in absentee voting and a 45-33 Republican lead in early voting—I don’t think you’d walk away with the impression that Democrats were more enthusiastic than Republicans. But this year, where Republicans are winning just 45-43 in absentee voting and Democrats are winning 43-39 in early voting, I buy that there’s an enthusiasm gap. That's especially true when Democratic turnout is higher than Republican turnout, and where more Democrats have returned their ballots compared to Republicans. And as Steve Schale pointed out on Sunday, female voters are particularly fired up: x One group in HD 72 special really stands out for @GoodforFlorida - women.



In terms of reg, HD 72 is about +8 women (54-46). Turnout so far, women are+15.



Total turnout so far 21%. Dem women: 30%.



Dem women make up 19% of district voters, but 26% of this election. Ã¢ÂÂ Steve Schale (@steveschale) February 11, 2018

Here’s why I’m confident in that prediction: Democrats are doing better in combined absentee and early voting this year than in 2016. If you looked at the 2016 numbers—41-40 Republican lead in absentee voting and a 45-33 Republican lead in early voting—I don’t think you’d walk away with the impression that Democrats were more enthusiastic than Republicans. But this year, where Republicans are winning just 45-43 in absentee voting and Democrats are winning 43-39 in early voting, I buy that there’s an enthusiasm gap. That's especially true when Democratic turnout is higher than Republican turnout, and where more Democrats have returned their ballots compared to Republicans. And as Steve Schale pointed out on Sunday, female voters are particularly fired up: Third, based on the voting patterns in the 2017 special elections in Florida, I don’t think that a repeat of 2016 is likely. I’m entirely unwilling to buy that Republicans are going to turn out en masse for James Buchanan on Election Day, by such a large margin that it erases Good’s pre-Election Day advantage. Such a result seems less likely than not, and borne out by neither the available data nor the trends in other Florida special elections.

For all three reasons, I’m predicting a narrow Good win. I’d race this race as Tossup/Tilts Democratic because I think that Good’s strength as a candidate, combined with the available turnout margins that we’ve seen so far, portends a win on Tuesday.

But this race isn’t over until it’s over. If you live in Sarasota or nearby, get in touch with Margaret Good’s campaign and volunteer to GOTV! And of course, if you live in HD-72, which you can check here, get out and vote on Tuesday!