Republicans redrew congressional districts across the country in 2010 in an attempt to consign Democrats to a semipermanent House minority.

But in 2018, the long-successful GOP insurance policy is at risk of backfiring in a big way — not only carving a path for a takeover, but possibly allowing for bigger Democratic gains.


In many states, Republicans maximized gains in the House by spreading GOP voters across as many districts as possible. Typically, that left Democrats with around 40 to 45 percent of the vote in those districts, making them difficult under normal circumstances for the minority party to contest.

But this election year is anything but normal. Many of the once-secure 55-45 Republican districts are very much in play, even in states that have not had competitive congressional races since 2012, the year new maps were installed. And North Carolina and Ohio — where Democrats chose nominees in primaries on Tuesday — are turning into the prime examples.

Neither national party has spent money in North Carolina or Ohio in the past two elections. But operatives in both states now rattle off a half-dozen Republican districts that could become fierce battlegrounds this fall, including the fast-changing suburbs of Cincinnati, Charlotte, Columbus and Raleigh. President Donald Trump won less than 55 percent of the vote in each of the seats in 2016 — and some of the Republican incumbents have been caught by surprise by the ferocity of their competition.

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“The math that was used to create these districts was the same math that was calculated in the anti-Obama era,” said Paul Shumaker, a Republican consultant based in North Carolina. But now, he continued, “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

The same phenomenon has hit both parties in the past. Morgan Jackson, a Democratic consultant in North Carolina, said his party drew maps in recent decades that spread Democratic votes thin to yield the most Democratic districts. But “in 1994 and in 2010, [those] who were in 52 percent-to-53 percent Democratic-performing districts lost because of the environment,” he said.

“In a normal year, you're safe in these seats, but in a time like this, Democrats are within striking distance,” Jackson continued. “This is when gerrymandering backfires.”

Reps. Steve Chabot and Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio), along with Ted Budd and George Holding (R-N.C.), are all top targets for Democrats with potentially serious challenges. Two open races — the race to replace former Reps. Pat Tiberi in Ohio and Robert Pittenger, who was defeated in Tuesday’s North Carolina primary — will also likely force Republicans to spend heavily defending once-safe territory.

Pittenger’s district could end up being the biggest gerrymandering backfire of 2018. The Republican lost his primary Tuesday night to Mark Harris, a conservative pastor who cast the three-term congressman as a part of the “Washington swamp,” effectively tapping into the anti-establishment anger driving the GOP base in a seat where Trump, Mitt Romney and John McCain all got between 53 percent and 56 percent of the vote in recent presidential elections.

But Harris, who lagged behind Pittenger in fundraising, now faces Democrat Dan McCready, a veteran and businessman who has vowed not to support House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi for speaker and banked more than $1.2 million in cash on hand in preparation for November. Harris’ campaign had $70,000, according to his pre-primary FEC filing.

Trump won North Carolina’s 9th District, which stretches from the Charlotte suburbs to Fayetteville, with 53.5 percent of the vote in 2016. But the area is stocked with suburban, college-educated voters — a cohort that trended away from Republicans over the past year.

Democrats also outvoted Republicans on primary night by a 10,000-vote margin, even though McCready didn’t face a serious Democratic opponent. “To me, that’s indicative of this being another race that hasn’t been on the table before, but now, based on turnout last night, it’s a real opportunity for Democrats,” said one Republican consultant watching the race.

Another open race nagging Republicans is the special election in Ohio, where state Sen. Troy Balderson squeaked past Melanie Leneghan, who picked up support from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the Freedom Caucus co-founder. Some Republicans are breathing easier now that Leneghan didn’t clinch the nomination; before the primary, pro-Balderson backers warned that Leneghan would alienate suburban voters in the district and leave it vulnerable to Democrats.

But Balderson still faces stiff competition in Danny O’Connor, the young Franklin County recorder who’s styled himself after Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb, the winner of March’s blockbuster special election in a pro-Trump slice of southwestern Pennsylvania. O’Connor, like Lamb, told POLITICO that he would not support Pelosi for House Democratic leader, in an effort to neutralize attacks on him.

Gibbs and Chabot, who both hail from districts with suburban areas, picked up their general election opponents Tuesday night — Democrats Ken Harbaugh and Aftab Pureval. Harbaugh, like O’Connor and Lamb, has also said he plans to not support Pelosi, while Pureval outraised Chabot by nearly $500,000 last quarter.

Budd, a freshman congressman, has less than half of the cash on hand than his Democratic opponent, Kathy Manning. Holding’s North Carolina district overlaps with the suburbs around Raleigh, but Linda Coleman, a state legislator who won the Democratic primary, trails the congressman in fundraising.

But incumbents in safely drawn seats can also be out of practice. “You win every two years, and you put it on cruise control, then before you know it, you’re in an environment you’re not ready for,” said Chip Gerhardt, a Republican consultant in Ohio.

Still, the number of reliable Republicans in these districts is “so significant that unless something dramatic happens, you’re unlikely to lose,” Gerhardt said. “But we may be in a time when dramatic things are happening.”