New research finds oft-cited estimate that 40% of all firearms are acquired with no screening is out of date, but points to holes in system for online purchases

The share of Americans who obtained a gun without first undergoing a background check is dramatically lower than previous estimates, researchers at Harvard and Northeastern universities have determined. The finding reshapes one of the most prominent assumptions of the US gun control debate.

Just 22% of current gun owners who acquired a firearm within the past two years did so without a background check, according to a new national survey by public health researchers at Harvard and Northeastern universities shared in advance with the Trace and the Guardian.



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For years, politicians and researchers have estimated that as many as 40% of gun transfers are conducted without a background check – a statistic based on an extrapolation from a 1994 survey. Gun rights activists had decried that estimate as outdated and inaccurate.

The new survey, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, found that the current proportion of gun sales conducted without a background check is about half of the figure cited by prominent Democratic gun control advocates, including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

It also found that gun owners in states that require background checks on all private gun sales were much less likely to report acquiring a gun without a background check than those in states with no universal background check law – a potential indication that efforts to boost screenings at the local level are succeeding, even in the absence of federal legislation.

The study’s authors hailed the new statistics as good news. “We’ve been moving in the right direction,” said Deborah Azrael, a researcher at the Harvard School of Public Health.

Background checks screen for individuals who are not permitted by law to own a gun, including criminals and those who pose a public safety threat. But the expansion of background checks has been a key political battleground in the gun control conversation.

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Since the 2012 massacre at the Sandy Hook elementary school, Obama and other Democrats have made the case for new gun laws by arguing that as many as 40% of guns in America are sold without a criminal background check – a statistic criticized by gun rights groups.

The figure was revived again in the 2016 presidential election. In October 2015, Hillary Clinton earned “three pinocchios” from the Washington Post Fact Checker blog when she said during a campaign rally that “40% of guns are sold at gun shows, online sales”.

Azrael hopes the new research can help inform better debate – and policy – concerning background checks. “It’s crazy that nobody has asked these questions since 1994,” Azrael said. “I mean, should we be citing 20-year-old statistics in support of contemporary policy? Probably not, but the problem is that there has been no effort to maintain any kind of ongoing check on what has been happening.”

Phil Cook, a prominent gun law researcher, said the new, smaller estimate did not undermine the argument that the US needs a federal law instituting universal background checks on gun sales. In fact, he said, the finding that a smaller number of guns are acquired without background checks could be an advantage for supporters of stricter gun control laws.

“The headline is that we as a nation are closer to having 100% of gun transactions with a background check than we might have thought,” says Cook, a gun violence researcher at Duke University who conducted the 1994 survey. “So, it’s more attainable, and cheaper, to pass a universal requirement than it would be if 40% of transactions were still being conducted without these screenings.”

The National Rifle Association, which has called the 40% estimate a a “lie”, did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the new background check statistic.

Donald Trump, a close NRA ally who ran on a pro-gun rights platform, opposes expanding federal background check laws, arguing instead that “we need to fix the system we have”.

Gun control advocates say enforcement of the current background checks system is as much a policy goal as expanding background checks.

The federal background check system has put a stop to more than 2.4m gun transactions since its implementation in 1994, but checks are not required on sales between private parties, such as many of those made at gun shows and arranged online.

“It’s not that the laws are ineffective, it’s that they’re so weak,” said Joseph Vince, a former agent for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms who currently heads the criminal justice programs at Mount St Mary’s University. “With the legislation currently in place, it’s incredibly difficult for law enforcement to track down guns that emerge from the secondary market.”

Over the past two decades, 19 states have moved to regulate private gun transfers, including, as of 1 January, Nevada. While research suggests that background checks can help reduce gun offenses, measuring the full impact is difficult given the myriad factors that can influence crime rates. Some studies also suggest that background checks can disrupt the flow of interstate gun trafficking.

The new survey also found that in states that had passed universal screening laws by 1 July 2013, just 26% of gun owners said they had obtained a gun through a private sale without a background check, compared to 57% of purchasers who live in states without such requirements.

Overall, researchers found that half of guns transferred privately in all states within the past two years were obtained without a background check.

While the share of gun owners who obtain weapons without being screened has shrunk, the updated survey results expose the holes that remain in the background check system. Among owners who purchased their most recent gun from a friend or acquaintance, 77% did so without a background check. If the purchase was made online, roughly 45% of respondents didn’t face screening.

“Compared to ’94, there is this shift toward more people getting background checks,” said Matt Miller, a professor of epidemiology at Northeastern and co-director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center. “But we still can’t lose sight of the fact that there are still millions of people every year who are getting guns, often from friends and acquaintances, without them.”

The new study also shows that more Americans than ever are buying their firearms as opposed to inheriting or receiving them as gifts. Eighty per cent of gun owners who obtained their most recent firearm within the past two years purchased it, compared to 60% of people who obtained a firearm more than five years ago.

The new background check statistics come from the most rigorous survey of American gun ownership in more than a decade – but as with any self-reported survey data it has limitations, including potential bias from respondents’ faulty memories. Because the survey was conducted online, the researchers wrote, the results may be less subject to the bias that affects surveys conducted over the phone, where people may be more likely to give live interviewers the answers they think are more socially acceptable.

The researchers asked 1,613 adult gun owners if they had undergone a background check for their most recently acquired firearm. The researchers also asked if the person who sold respondents the gun had asked to see a firearm license or permit before going through with the sale. If the answer to either question was yes, the respondent was listed as having gone through a background check. The team later asked the gun owners when they had acquired their most recent firearm.

The 2015 survey found that just 22% of gun owners who had acquired a gun in the previous two years reported doing so without a background check. Gun owners who had acquired a gun earlier than that – between two and five years before 2015, or more than five years before – were more likely to remember doing so without a background check. A full 57% of gun owners who reported acquiring their most recent gun more than five years before 2015 reported getting the gun without a background check. Because the survey relied on the memories of the participants, the researchers wrote, the more recent gun acquisition data might be more accurate.

This story was produced in collaboration with the Trace as part of a partnership to report on exclusive new gun ownership data.