Sorting Through the Jags’ Receivers

The Corey Grant and Austin Seferian-Jenkins injuries have left behind 7.4 targets per game. Jacksonville is throwing the ball 44.4 times per game. When pass catchers go down in a pass-oriented offense (at least until Fournette returns), opportunity arises. The Jaguars’ WR core has been a perplexing committee, with a different player seeming to go off each week. By dissecting the top three options, I will attempt to uncover which among them is most likely to serve as a week-to-week asset.

Westbrook has a couple things going for him. Playing in the slot has allowed him the ability to use his wiry 6’ frame and 4.4 wheels to exploit favorable matchups. We saw this in his week 4 performance, when the speedy wideout turned 13 targets into 130 yards.

What’s a bit odd, is that Westbrook looks a lot like John Brown or DeSean Jackson — a guy built to make splash plays downfield. While that can be done from the slot, the position is often characterized by a shallower route tree and YAC opportunities. Westbrook has been a stud in the latter category, averaging an insane 6.1 yards after catch through 5 games.

However, 6.6 targets per game while ranking 47th in air yards presents a tricky path to success. In fact, removing the outlier 13 target game leaves Westbrook averaging just 5.2 per contest. Additionally, the slot receiver is playing just 68.8% of snaps, and has seen 0 red zone or end zone targets. For what it’s worth, Dede leads the WR trio in QB rating when the ball is thrown his way. I just don’t see him being a worthwhile WR option. The position is too deep.

When it comes to actually being on the field, Keelan Cole bests his fellow receivers, lining up for 86.2% of snaps. Many liked Cole as the guy to fill the void left by yet another Marqise Lee injury. I always found him to be somewhat contradictory as a slow guy who earns his keep on the deep ball. That aside, he clearly has a natural aptitude for the position. That’s a must for an athletically deficient receiver in the NFL. While the coaching staff appears to favor Cole as the so-called “no. 1”, much like Westbrook, he’s not drowning in targets, averaging 6.8 per game. The nice thing is, unlike Westbrook, Cole’s target share is more stable game to game, netting 8 or more in 3 of 5 contests. That alone gives him a relatively safe floor compared to his fellow wideouts. The combination of big play potential and stability make Cole the safest and strongest bet out of this group going forward. Even then, he should likely be kept away from gameday lineups.

This is one guy I’ve struggled to pin down. Breakout age, a metric that captures the age a player breaks the threshold for “significant” college production, is one of the top indicators for WR success at the NFL level — with younger being better. Moncrief is in the 100th percentile with a breakout age of 18.1 years old. He’s also an elite athlete with prototypical size for the position. And yet, he’s either been hurt or not good for the entirety of his professional career. Be that as it may, he’s the most targeted wideout on the team (7.4 p/g).

A quick look at the game log, however, reveals that to be an inflated statistic, as the 25 year old has topped 5 targets in just 2 games, with 15 coming in the blowout loss last week to Kansas City. The intrigue, if any, is the Mississippi product’s place as the preferred red zone, end zone, and deep ball option.

But in all honesty, I don’t see it. Moncrief hasn’t been efficient with his looks, struggling to bring down contested catches — a necessity for a go-to end zone option. He’s also the lesser of the WR trio in QB rating when targeted at 66.6, 84th in the league. Additionally, Moncrief has accumulated 3 drops to just 18 catches. My advice? You’re better off dumpster diving elsewhere.