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Research suggests visa overstays are now a larger source of unauthorized immigrants to the U.S. than undocumented border crossings. The Center for Migration Studies found in a 2017 report that overstays had exceeded illegal crossings every year from 2007 to 2014.

Still, experts say it’s unlikely the U.S. will target its northern neighbour as it attempts to address the issue.

“I don’t know if these numbers are necessarily indicating that Canada’s a serious risk to America,” said Henry Chang, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer licensed in Ontario and California.

A big part of the reason Canada tops the visa overstay list, Chang said, is simply that a lot of Canadians travel to the U.S. Last year, 9.2 million Canadians were expected to leave the U.S., compared to 2.9 million Mexicans. Chang pointed out that the rate of Canadian visa overstays — about one per cent — is much lower than that of many developing countries.

We’re hardly the worst offender, and I don’t think they’re necessarily going to single us out

“We’re hardly the worst offender, and I don’t think they’re necessarily going to single us out,” he said.

While Canada is the biggest culprit when it comes to visa overstays, the Center for Migration Studies estimates that Canadians accounted for just 0.4 per cent of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. in 2015, while Mexicans made up more than half of the unauthorized population.

Chang said some Canadians end up staying in the U.S. longer than the standard six-month limit for tourists because they don’t realize they’re breaking the law. He mentioned one client of his who married a U.S. citizen and spent three years in the U.S. as a visitor. “I told her she’d been illegal for three years, and she was shocked,” he said. “They seem to think that they’re kind of the 51st state and the laws don’t apply to them.”