It looks like a prison population transfer, he went on, but quickly added that there were not enough state prisons and holding facilities in Allegany County to account for more than 4,000 people. He mused aloud that it was conceivable that inmates from other upstate counties might have accidentally been counted in the mix, although he could not tell for sure.

It seemed the best way to understand this phenomenon for certain was to take a ride to Allegany County, following one possible route of the reported exodus in reverse. Depending on the presence of the State Police, the journey takes between five and six hours. One heads west on Interstates 95 and 80, north on Interstate 81 and then west again on Route 17, where the roadside clutter of motels and pancake houses is replaced by stubbly wheat fields and mournful, sagging barns.

Gorsuch's Tavern, on Main Street in the village of Andover, is the first place to grab a bite and a beer heading west into Allegany County on State Route 417. It is a dark and comfortable spot, fashioned as a mountain lodge and offering a tasty bowl of chili and a friendly clientele.

No one sitting in the tavern at the lunch hour had ever known of a soul from Allegany County who had moved to the Bronx. They seemed, in fact, to think the whole idea was some sort of joke.

"I know a few people who moved out here from there -- they were New York City cops," said C.R. Jackson, a 75-year-old retired state trooper. "But I don't know anybody who moved down there from here. Sounds like hogwash to me."

Sitting next to Mr. Jackson at the bar was Mike Burdick, a slender fellow in a barn coat and a baseball cap. He was asked what image came to mind when he thought about the Bronx.

"Let's see," he said. "Uh, nothing."

John Lyday, a construction worker eating lunch, had passed through the Bronx on several occasions when he was a truck driver.