The Americans still tend to dominate their opponents but their failure to convert chances could eventually cost them dear in Canada

As USA head into the Women’s World Cup knockout round, the team appear to be going through a minor identity crisis.

The Americans have a well-earned reputation as a team that score a lot of goals. The term “an embarrassment of riches” has been tossed around to describe the US forward line. To wit, the team has so much attacking depth that superstars Abby Wambach and Alex Morgan have both served in substitute roles at points through the group stage.

But for all that reputation, the Americans don’t have much to show for it in the World Cup so far. With the exception of a strong 3-1 win over Australia to start the group, a match where none of USA’s goals were scored by forwards, goals have looked hard to come by for the Americans.

In their last two games going into the knockout round of the tournament, the Americans converted just one of 26 chances, an alarming conversion rate of less than 4%. Through the entire group stage, USA’s conversation rate is nearly 11%, which was where the Americans were heading into the World Cup. It’s better but still not quite a gangbusters number.

The tournament’s average goal conversion rate for all teams is 15%.

“We need a higher conversion rate,” USA coach Jill Ellis told reporters after her team’s 1-0 win over Nigeria to advance to the round of 16. “That’s something that’s in our statistical review in terms of what we’re trying to achieve in games. I think the players are disappointed we didn’t convert more, but are pleased we got the one goal.”

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Some impressive saves from opposing keepers and some finishing yips may be part of the problem. Ellis said finishing drills are an important part of the team’s ongoing preparations in Canada.

But tactically, the team’s attacking strategy has seemed to run the Americans into a brick wall at times. Cross after cross and long ball after long ball, the Americans have struggled to capitalize on their preferred style of play, especially without Wambach waiting in the box.

Their aggressive, go-for-goal approach has players turning inside looking for a direct outlet rather working the flanks, which allows opposing defenders to crowd the middle of the park. The Americans move quickly, and it can mean taking chances where there isn’t a great one available.

USA can certainly look threatening at other times, though, and with individual performances, the team can make up for opponents setting up to defend. With a player like Morgan in the line-up, the Americans can look deadly on a quick counter attack – she was twice denied by Nigeria’s Precious Dede in goal on fast breakaways. In the USA’s first match, Megan Rapinoe essentially took matters into her own hands against Australia to score a brace.

Even as their success rate has lagged, the Americans are still creating chances. Not all of them are clear cut and the vast majority aren’t being finished off, but having openings is enough for Ellis.

“We’re not going to change anything,” Ellis said of the team’s style of play. “It comes down to focus in the box. I would be concerned if we weren’t getting opportunities, but opportunities score goals.”

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When it comes to putting the ball in the net, the Americans seem to have set impossibly high expectations for themselves over the years. Fans don’t have to think back too far to remember a time when USA beat teams by hugely lopsided margins in important games.

But this tournament is thus far proving the world of women’s soccer is becoming increasingly competitive. For instance, No 28-ranked Colombia beat No 3-ranked France in the group stage. Perhaps a cycle or two ago, an upset with that large of a differential in world rankings might’ve seemed impossible.

The No 2-ranked Americans walked away from No 33-ranked Nigeria with a close 1-0 win – hardly a dominant scoreline, while Australia upset Brazil on Sunday in the last 16.

“Long gone are the days where we just come out and beat teams five or six to nothing. Those days are over,” midfielder Carli Lloyd told the Guardian when asked what the team need to do about their finishing. “Teams are so much better now and we’re in tougher group than some of the other teams.”

“I think that we’ve just got to keep the faith and belief in ourselves and know that with each game, we’re going to get a little bit better and more comfortable and we’ll be alright.”

When Colombia take on the Americans on Monday, it will be only the third time these two sides have ever met. The Americans beat Colombia in both the 2011 World Cup and the 2012 Olympics by the same margin, 3-0. This World Cup is the first time Las Cafeteras have advanced out of the group stage, and is just their second time qualifying.

Colombia took little more than half the shots the USA took in the group stage, but their conversation rate was higher at 19%.

The Colombian attack has been buoyed by the finishing abilities of Lady Andrade, who scored against both France and England in group play. Andrade, perhaps best known to American fans for punching Wambach in the face during the 2012 Olympics, upped the ante in the lead-up to the match by calling the Americans overconfident.



“They think we’re a team they’re going to walk all over and it will be an easy game for them,” Andrade said. “We’re going to beat them since they like to talk so much.”

We’ll see if both teams have the action to back up their words on Monday night in Edmonton.