Conservative voters would be more likely to choose outspoken TV personality Kevin O’Leary as their party leader among a field of seven declared and potential candidates for Stephen Harper’s old job, a Forum Research pollsuggests.

But among voters generally, not just those likely to vote Tory if an election were held today, former cabinet minister Peter MacKay leads the pack.

A little more than one in four Conservative voters surveyed said O’Leary — the caustic star of Shark Tank and formerly Dragon’s Den business reality TV shows that critique entrepreneurs’ ideas — would be the best person to fill the leadership vacancy left by former prime minister Stephen Harper’s resignation after his government was defeated last fall.

MacKay, the last leader of the former Progressive Conservative party before it merged with the Canadian Alliance to form the Conservatives, follows with a close second among party voters, but is preferred to O’Leary by voters in general, the survey indicates.

“It just goes to show you the overlap of entertainment and politics isn’t limited only to the U.S.,” said pollster Lorne Bozinoff, president and founder of Forum Research.

The poll was conducted last week, before MP Michael Chong announced Monday he’s entering the leadership race.

Forum asked who would be the best Conservative leader from among a field of seven that includes party stalwart Jason Kenney, the already-declared Maxime Bernier, interim party leader Rona Ambrose and former cabinet ministers Lisa Raitt and Kelly Leitch, the latter of which was a children’s orthopedic surgeon in London before entering federal politics.

By far the favourite choice, though, was “someone else.”

It’s clear the race is still in early stages, Bozinoff said.

“No one is like a super-frontrunner yet. No one’s got a lock on this,” he said. “At this stage, it’s a very fluid situation. There’s lots of room for everyone.”

Only Bernier, Leitch and Chong have so far declared they’ll seek the leadership.

One former Conservative MP from the London region, said it’s too early in the race — the new leader will be a chosen a year from now — to be calling it already.

“Even in this last general election, there was a poll-a-day and it wasn’t until the last day that the matter was settled,” said Preston, who retired last fall as the Elgin-Middlesex-London MP but is seeking a seat on the Conservative Party’s national council later this month.

When Tories ultimately do choose a leader, “It will be people who know Conservatives,” he said.

Potentially skewing these poll results is the ongoing question of whether the rules might be changed to allow Ambrose to enter the race.

But to win the leadership, someone is going to have to do better than any are doing now, Bozinoff said.

“To win this, they’re going to have to have national profile. You’re not going to win this with 14 per cent or 11 per cent.”

And just as Donald Trump’s actual political leanings confound some in the U.S. Republican party, O’Leary’s take on politics has to be decidedly unsettling to established Conservative candidates. O’Leary has said his main aim is advocating for tax-paying Canadians and he hasn’t even ruled out running for the Liberals for the next election.

Bozinoff said similarities with the popularity of Trump, who’s won support in part because he’s outside the political establishment — which in another context might be a liability, not an asset— may well be a lesson here.

“The Trump experience tells us we shouldn’t just reject O’Leary out-of-hand. He’s going to be the loose cannon in this one.”

The rankings in the April 11 poll are consistent with a similar poll Forum conducted April 6.

Nathan Caranci, Chong’s field manager mobilizing four London ridings, said the poll results will change dramatically over time.

“At this point, it’s name recognition and who knows who and that kind of thing.”

He noted a new leader won’t be chosen until next May, giving Canadians plenty of time to know the candidates, issues and the party. “It is going to be a year-long campaign, which is a good thing not just for the party or Mr. Chong, but for the country itself.”

Go online to find out more

Read the poll results at poll.forumresearch.com

About the Forum poll:

Forum surveyed 1,517 randomly-chosen, voting-age Canadians by phone April 10-11. Resulted are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Top choices:

Breakdown of survey results in percentages:

All surveyed:

Peter MacKay (18); Kevin O’Leary (14); Rona Ambrose (11); Maxime Bernier (9); Jason Kenney (6); Lisa Raitt (4); Kelly Leitch (3); someone else (35).

Conservative voters:

Kevin O’Leary (27); Peter MacKay (23); Rona Ambrose (16); Jason Kenney (6); Maxime Bernier (6); Kelly Leitch (3); Lisa Raitt (2); someone else (17).

Conservative party members: Kevin O’Leary (23); Peter MacKay (16); Rona Ambrose (12); Maxime Bernier (11); Jason Kenney (9); Kelly Leitch (4); Lisa Raitt (2); someone else (23).

See poll details here: forumresearch.com/polls