Operating Veterans Memorial Coliseum would be a money-losing proposition for the city of Portland under all but the rosiest of scenarios during the next 20 years.

City officials and leaders at the Portland Development Commission, the city's urban renewal agency, are considering handing over management responsibility for the sports facility to the PDC as part of a long-term deal with the Portland Winterhawks junior hockey league team.

Right now, Portland contracts with Paul Allen's Portland Arena Management to operate the city-owned coliseum. But Allen's company has been unwilling to make the lengthy commitment the Winterhawks want as part of their pledge to kick in $10 million toward a $30 million-plus renovation of the coliseum, with the rest of the money coming from publicly controlled funds.

Allen's company currently covers operating losses, and in seven of the past 10 years the coliseum has run in the red. PAM has an option to manage the coliseum through 2018, 2023, or longer. As an alternative, the PDC would take management responsibility to assure the Winterhawks that they'll have a place to play.

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, conducted for the PDC and released to City Hall Watch on Thursday, shows that operating the coliseum would run into the red for two of three scenarios between 2014 and 2033.

Under the baseline scenario -- which assumes historical booking trends and "modest operational improvements associated with the planned investments in the facility" -- the coliseum would operate at a loss in 14 of 20 years. Annual losses top out at just under $45,000, however, and the best years show $75,000 in profit, with a net loss over the two-decade span totaling just $129,460.

Under a worst-case scenario -- which assumes the facility would only open for Winterhawks events and selected community events operated at cost -- the coliseum would operate at a loss in 20 of 20 years. Losses range from about $185,000 annually up to nearly $368,000 and total about $5.5 million over 20 years.

Under a best-case scenario -- which assumes increased bookings, concession sales and sponsorship opportunities -- the coliseum would run in the black during all 20 years. Net profits would begin at about $232,000 annually and reach nearly $700,000, for net profits of about $9.5 million over 20 years.

In each positive scenario, consultants at Portland-based Johnson Reid assumed a significant reduction in utility expenses from existing conditions.

In the baseline scenario, they reduce utility costs by about 20 percent because of upgrades to the heating and cooling system, dropping expenses projected for 2013 from about $513,000 to just $423,000 in 2014. For the best-case scenario, they estimate 2014 utility expenses at just $396,000.

But they note that "actual realized savings from utility upgrades is uncertain for VMC" -- meaning any miscalculation of the utility savings could alter projections.

Under terms of the proposed deal, the city would cover annual operating

. Officials hired Johnson Reid as a means to determine how much liability the PDC could face.

"Based on our scenario analysis," the consults wrote, "we would not anticipate that the Portland Development Commission's commitment to cover operational losses in excess of the (Office of Management and Finance's) annual threshold of $375,000 would be triggered."

The consultants concluded that the coliseum "will need to be actively marketed to attract concerts and other events" but "the facility is perceived in the market to have relatively poor acoustics, which limits its marketability for concerts."

Four of five similar facilities compared to the coliseum, according to consultants, operated at losses.

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