“This is history,” says economist Ram Bhagavatula, who's also managing director at Combinatorics Capital. “December payrolls will be weak as well. The leading indicators will come from a slow re-activation of the credit markets and increases in consumer spending. You should begin to see that in the next couple of months.”

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Bhagavatula is among a growing number of economists who say the seeds of recovery are already in place, even if they are revising their forecasts for GDP contraction in the fourth quarter to show an even greater decline.

"Every recession has its worst day, and this is probably the worst day," says Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

Economists point to historical data and recent developments as solid grounds for optimism.

"This number is a unique number because it reflects an unprecedented economic situation, which began with the bankruptcy of Lehman on Sept 15, “ says long-time Fed watcher David Jones, of DMJ advisors. “The economy has never been shut down as quicly as it was following that bankruptcy. The economic response to that cut off in credit is unprecedented.”

Jones points to significant downward revisions in September and October payroll losses.

Indeed, the November payrolls decline of 533,000 was enormous and the biggest since December 1974, when they dropped about 600,000. But declines after that month—in what might be considered closer to the end of the recession than the beginning—were much less severe.

“Severe drops like this (the Sept.-Nov payrolls ) cannot be sustained,” says Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics. “It suggests we are getting so weak there will be a turnaround."