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As the pieces begin to fall together in advance of the 2018 season, the fine folks at Bovada (I don’t know them personally, but they seem nice) have put together odds for the various AFC and NFC teams to make it to the Super Bowl. And there’s a surprise lurking at the top of the AFC stack.

Behind the obvious propositions — the Patriots at 9-4 and the Steelers at 9-2 sit the Texans. Yes, the Texans. Still a 10-1 longshot, the odds remain better for Houston than every other team in the conference, including the Jaguars (11-1), the Chiefs (14-1), and the Titans (16-1).

It’s not really a shocker, but it’s still a stunner. The Texans were 4-12 last year, and quarterback Deshaun Watson is coming back from a torn ACL. Also, with only six career starts, there’s still a chance that defenses over the course of a full season will figure out how to slow down what was an incredible run as a rookie.

At the other end of the spectrum are the Bills. Despite making it to the playoffs in 2017, Buffalo faces 40-1 odds to make it to the Super Bowl for the first time in 25 years, the third worst odds in the conference — and beneath the 35-1 Browns.

The longest shot in the AFC is the Jets, at 65-1, giving the AFC East three teams at the bottom: Bills, Dolphins (50-1), and New York.