Marijuana is shaping up to be the new gay marriage of GOP politics — most Republicans would rather not talk about it, except to punt to the states.

But when it comes to the 2016 presidential race, a series of legalization ballot initiatives — and a certain outspoken Kentucky senator — could make it harder for the Republican field to avoid the conversation.


When asked to articulate their positions on recreational marijuana, several potential GOP 2016 candidates have tried to strike a tricky balance: stress the downsides of pot use and the upsides of states’ rights. Some have indicated their openness to decriminalizing pot, at least in their state, but none favors outright legalization.

For instance, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who took steps toward decriminalizing pot in his state, declared last year: “I am a staunch promoter of the 10th Amendment. States should be able to set their own policies on abortion, same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization.”

Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, meanwhile, “believes legalization of marijuana for recreational use is a bad idea, and that the states that are doing it may well come to regret it,” said Alex Conant, his spokesman. “Of course, states can make decisions about what laws they wish to apply within their own borders.”

Marijuana may not stimulate the same kind of passion as the debate over same-sex marriage. Still, a majority of Americans support legalizing pot, and young people — who tend to turn out more for presidential elections than midterms — are especially keen on it.

The “leave it to the states” stance allows potential GOP candidates to stake out a relatively safe middle ground between an older conservative base that disapproves of marijuana use and a general-election electorate and libertarian wing that prefers legalization. The states’ rights approach also allows GOP candidates to express some openness to medical marijuana and criminal justice reform and argue against devoting costly resources for federal enforcement.

It’s also a position many in the prospective GOP field have taken on same-sex marriage.

Perry and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush both argued for the rights of states to set their own marriage policies after courts overturned bans in Texas and Florida. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Rubio, among others, have also said marriage should be left up to the states. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has called for a constitutional amendment to disallow the federal government or courts to nullify state marriage laws, saying: “our Constitution leaves it to the states to define marriage.”

At least five states are preparing to vote on legalization of recreational marijuana in 2016 — Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada. There are efforts to put the issue on ballots in Florida, Missouri and Montana. Colorado, Washington state, Oregon and Alaska already have voted to legalize recreational marijuana, as has Washington, D.C.

President Barack Obama’s administration has basically tried to avoid what’s becoming a murky legal issue. The Justice Department announced in 2013 that it wouldn’t block recreational and medical marijuana in states that adopted legalization measures; while a federal cannabis ban remains, the administration has largely opted not to enforce it in states that have voted to legalize.

Many states have laws either legalizing marijuana for medicinal purposes or decriminalizing it — eliminating criminal charges while still having penalties, such as a fine. States have flirted with those two avenues to test the waters on marijuana without immediately embracing full-scale legalization.

Among those states is Florida, which narrowly defeated a constitutional amendment to allow medical marijuana in 2014. Bush publicly opposed it but added that states “ought to have a right to decide.”

In Texas, Perry made reforms to reduce criminal charges against nonviolent offenders, but his spokeswoman said he has no stance on whether the federal government should decriminalize pot use. Instead, he points to the 10th Amendment in arguing that states should choose their own path.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, another likely 2016 contender, has opposed legalization, but has acknowledged his state could vote for it on his watch.

Legalization advocates identify Rubio and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the most outspoken critics of marijuana among potential Republican presidential candidates.

The Florida senator has expressed openness to medical marijuana but ruled out decriminalization. He often talks about the perils of marijuana use, but won’t say whether he has ever smoked pot.

Christie has railed against the Colorado experiment and opposes medical marijuana. Still, he has emphasized the importance of relying on drug treatment more than criminal penalties.

Cruz has called the Obama administration’s failure to enforce the federal marijuana ban “fundamentally dangerous to the liberty of the people,” but hasn’t said what he’d do if elected president. So far, none of the likely 2016 candidates has said the federal government should stop states from legalizing marijuana.

The pro-legalization lobby, buoyed by recent successes, is taking an aggressive state-based approach in the next two years and believes 2016 will be favorable for the ballot initiatives. Advocates don’t see anyone in the GOP field pushing back too hard.

“No one’s been a problem for us,” said Michael Collins, policy manager at the Drug Policy Alliance.

“Largely, major presidential candidates will do their best to avoid the issue,” added his colleague Malik Burnett.

Some advocates have downplayed the parallels between same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization. While recreational cannabis has found its success on the ballot, gay marriage has been decided mostly in state legislatures and courts.

Still, both movements have successfully used state-based models, increasing pressure for federal action. The Supreme Court will decide later this year whether same-sex marriage is a constitutional right.

One Republican outspoken on marijuana is Paul, who has made major overtures to young people and minorities. The Kentucky senator, a favorite in the GOP’s libertarian wing, is the highest-profile Republican to support federal decriminalization and the party’s only potential presidential candidate to do so.

Paul has sponsored legislation aimed at preventing the federal government from cracking down on the medical marijuana industry in states where it’s legal. He’s teamed up with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) to introduce sentencing reform legislation. He recently co-sponsored a Senate bill to legalize industrial hemp — a less-potent sibling of marijuana.

“I don’t want to put our kids in prison for it,” Paul said of marijuana in December. “So if your kid was caught selling marijuana or growing enough that it’s a felony conviction, they could be in jail for an extended period of time. They also lose their ability to be employable. So I want to change all of that.”

The senator’s stance could prove a vexing problem not just for fellow Republicans but also Hillary Clinton. The likely Democratic 2016 frontrunner has been relatively quiet on the issue, asking for a “wait and see” approach to the experiments in Colorado and Washington state and offering some support for medical marijuana.

“He is going to force other candidates, whether it’s in the Republican primary or the general, to take positions on these issues,” Collins said.

Paul has been so outspoken that at least one GOP strategist believed he supports legalization. But he doesn’t, and he often speaks negatively about cannabis use, which irks some legalization advocates who otherwise have a favorable impression of the senator (the Marijuana Policy Project donated $2,500 to Paul’s PAC in the 2014 cycle).

When asked about Paul’s efforts on marijuana, spokesman Brian Darling immediately noted: “He’s been pretty clear that marijuana is bad for people, but they should not have their lives ruined for smoking it.”

Strategists argue that Paul’s reluctance to embrace full legalization and insistence on warning about the dangers of marijuana use indicate he doesn’t want to anger a key segment of the GOP base.

“Part of the reason why Paul finds himself in this conundrum is the amount of older voters we have in the Republican primary,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell, noting that Paul’s libertarian-leaning foreign policy stances already have Republican voters over 50 eying him warily.

Although most Americans support marijuana legalization, just 39 percent of Republicans and 31 percent of conservatives do, according to a recent Gallup poll. Another survey shows that 16 percent of Republicans in Iowa, the first presidential nominating state, favor legalization.

The GOP’s internal struggle over the issue is playing out in Congress, where a group of Republicans — led by House Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal Rogers of Kentucky and Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland — pushed for a provision included in the December $1.01 trillion spending bill that aims to stop the marijuana legalization measure passed in Washington, D.C.

Several Republicans have expressed discomfort with the move, saying it makes the party look bad with younger voters and that the GOP shouldn’t meddle in local affairs.

When the debate is framed around state versus federal rights, Republican voters appear more receptive. Fifty-four percent of Republicans support the federal government not interfering in states that have legalized marijuana, according to a Third Way poll from December.

For legalization advocates, that’s the main issue.

“The question is whether they will continue to allow states to set their own policies on marijuana,” Collins said of GOP presidential candidates. “And the answer will be yes.”