This post reflects my personal views, not those of my employer (SlamData), and is dedicated to Alan Chhabra (VP Partners at MongoDB), whose passion in a recent email to my company inspired me to write about MongoDB again (thanks Alan!).

MongoDB World 2016 kicks off a week from today, on June 28th!

It’s a tradition for MongoDB to use the conference to announce major product improvements — not unlike Apple does at WWDC.

At MongoDB World 2015, the big announcements were Compass, BI Connector (AKA the PostgreSQL database), and joins.

So what’s the big news for 2016? Let's look at the options!

ACID

In the relational world, all the grown-up operational databases have ACID, which stands for Atomicity Consistency Isolation Durability.

While some NoSQL databases intentionally trade-off consistency for availability or partition-tolerance, someone recently discovered that MongoDB doesn’t even return all matching documents. Whoopsy-daisy!

Given MongoDB’s apparent reluctance to follow the footsteps of other NoSQL databases like MarkLogic, Couchbase, and Aerospike, and push for greater ACID, I’d say there’s zero chance that an ACID compliant storage engine will be announced at MongoDB World 2016.

A Real BI Connector

MongoDB’s current BI Connector is really the PostgreSQL database in disguise. However, MongoDB could theoretically build a real BI connector that executes 100% in-database analytics.

However, release notes for the BI Connector on Github suggest to me the project is in life-support mode (almost no changes in 6 months!), and field reports from my day job suggests the connector’s limitations (flattening, no in-database analytics) result in many people abandoning the BI Connector for a native analytics solution like SlamData.

In addition, a real BI connector might require a different mindset than the one that intentionally masqueraded a competing database as a BI connector.

My verdict: not going to happen.

Single Unified Query Language

MongoDB’s three overlapping, ad hoc, Javascript-infected query mechanisms have resulted in me affectionately calling the database the Frankenstein Monster of NoSQL databases.

MongoDB could put their thinking cap on and implement a unified query language that can handle the full range of queries over BSON data. You know, like Couchbase did with N1QL, and MarkLogic did with XQuery.

But given MongoDB’s history for tacking on more stuff to un-designed and under-specified query mechanisms, I’m going to guess they’ll add more ad hoc operators to their existing query languages.

No, much as I long for it, MongoDB will not announce a single unified query language at MongoDB World 2016.

So if it isn’t ACID, a real BI connector, or a single unified query language, what’s going to get the press buzzing next week?

Are you ready for it?

The Real Big Announcement

Clues to what MongoDB has cooking can be found in Eliot Horowitz’s Ramblings.

First, Eliot laments the shutdown of Parse:

I’m a fan of [Parse’s] approach. MongoDB’s number one focus has always been on making developers more productive, so they don’t have to work so hard to use their databases.

Eliot followed that up early this year with the following juicy snippet:

All this discussion I’ve had about Parse has got me thinking about the nature of the Mobile Backend-as-a-Service space and MongoDB’s role there.

Just last month, Eliot came out with this quote:

In an ideal world, it would be great if your web or mobile app could talk directly to a database. … Parse and Firebase are probably the best examples at the moment. They both definitely have pushed this along pretty well, but I think another big step function is needed.

If you combine these quotes with an interview of Eliot Horowitz conducted by Derrick Harris a few months back, you obtain the complete picture:

So the intersection of open source databases and cloud is incredibly interesting. I wish I knew exactly where it was going to be in three years, but we see cloud adoption continuing to grow, and a big focus of ours is exactly where we should go with that.

A database in the cloud that is magical is pretty appealing. … I think it’s going to be a race to getting there. DynamoDB has one angle on it, they’re working in one direction. We’re working on a very different direction.

I think the idea of a fully managed database in the cloud is incredibly appealing—as a developer I just talk to it and I don’t have to manage it, I don’t have to worry about up time.

There you have it. Clear as day.

The giant announcement at MongoDB World 2016 will be that MongoDB is launching a new cloud-hosted version of MongoDB!

In fact, I’ll go further and say the hosted version will run on AWS (given Cloud Manager’s love affair with AWS), it will utilize some beefed up version of Cloud Manager, and it will enable (if not now, in the near future) MBaaS.

Hosted MongoDB, coming to an Amazon cloud near you!

An Anti-Climax?

Of course, given that MongoDB has been available in hosted form from mLab, ScaleGrid, and IBM Cloud (Compose) for some time, some will question whether this is newsworthy at all.

I’d argue that it’s a sign MongoDB is trying to add top-line revenue, possibly because it’s been unable to generate massive revenue off the core database (you don’t see MarkLogic jumping into hosted MarkLogic, do you?).

Hosting MongoDB in the cloud is a good way to add top-line revenue. Unfortunately, most of the revenue will be paid to AWS for the hardware and virtualization infrastructure, and the profit margin will probably be thin.

No doubt, many large companies who want a DBaaS will choose MongoDB's version, since MongoDB created the database and offers support.

But the competition will ensure profit margins remain low unless they can differentiate in the product, which means you can expect MongoDB to put a lot of extra goodies into the cloud offering, focused on developer productivity and ease-of-administration for ops.

Given that MongoDB is hiring for Compass, I’d also expect a dog and pony show around the future of Compass. And possibly a little talk of a few actually newsworthy items around the database itself (but nothing earth-shattering).

Nothing to See Here, Move Along

Having been to MongoDB World for two years in a row, I can tell you that from where I have stood, the conference does not seem to be growing.

In fact, for 2015, MongoDB was offering ungodly discounts literally right up to the event itself, probably in an effort to sell vacant seats.

For 2016, MongoDB seems to have taken a different strategy: they’ve invited Adam Savage from MythBusters.

Savage will deliver a (no doubt) inspiring keynote—one that has absolutely nothing to do with MongoDB. But hey, if it sells seats!

The other two front-page (and quite awesome) keynote speakers have also probably never built an application on MongoDB in their entire lives!

In addition, MongoDB’s main announcement is going to be the launch of a MongoDB Cloud product! Yep, a me-too product that will funnel money to Amazon and may do little to turnaround MongoDB’s speculated losses.

Of course, in the broader scheme of things, the news is not all bad. MongoDB continues to rise in popularity. The database of today is genuinely better in every way compared to the database of 5 years ago!

What upsets me is contemplating what MongoDB could be announcing at MongoWorld 2016. Stuff that’s not ever going to be announced with the current product (un)focus.

In my opinion, MongoDB needs to go all-in on improving and monetizing the actual database, making tough choices that rock the community boat but pave the way to substantial revenue. Anything else is just so much flash…

Exactly like MongoDB World 2016, in fact.