As global sport has ground to a shuddering halt over the past few days, Australia's two biggest football codes have become conspicuous outliers.

The NRL season began on schedule, while the AFL's men's competition could soon join its women's league in playing behind closed doors.

A decision on whether to proceed will be handed down by the AFL Commission on Wednesday.

But why have both codes been so stubbornly determined to push through the coronavirus crisis?

"Our money will only last so long," said Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V'landys.

"Once it's extinguished, we are in big trouble."

V'landys is right to be concerned.

If matches were to be suspended, the rivers of broadcast rights gold would be in danger of drying up.

And when it comes to total revenue, TV is the lifeblood for both big winter codes.

Given the sheer size of these broadcasting arrangements, and the clubs' fixed costs, an extended hiatus would be catastrophic.

Just one year of broadcast revenue is by itself more than either code's cash reserves. That means that without even factoring in any other commercial impacts, neither could cover the loss of its broadcast money without having to beg or borrow.

V'landys's early public plea for government assistance has been widely criticised, but is somewhat understandable in this context.

Without being privy to confidential commercial arrangements, it is hard to know who is liable for losses, and what is insured or agreed by contract. But we can safely assume that salvaging some of that broadcast revenue is imperative for both the NRL and AFL.

With Super Rugby games rendered impossible by the new restrictions on travel, Rugby Australia also faces a loss of the international matches. Rugby union tests are the sport's financial backbone, drawing by far the biggest television audiences. The current uncertainty around scheduling has forced Rugby Australia to pause its negotiations over a new broadcast deal.

Soccer is in a slightly different situation, given the transfer of Australia's major domestic leagues from FFA control to a transitional body. The W-League and A-League seasons are drawing to a close, so they have fewer remaining commitments to broadcasters.

No entry

Even if the NRL and AFL can keep their matches going over the next few weeks, television will be only way to watch them. The stadiums will be closed to fans in compliance with regulations banning large gatherings.

Using the AFL as an example, the lockouts will remove a big chunk of the revenues that clubs rely on. However, the impact is not evenly spread.

Attendances vary wildly between clubs and leagues. Some have big crowds or favourable rental deals for their stadiums, while some struggle to make money from attendance. Some clubs even lose money on home games.

Ticket sales will be entirely lost for the months ahead. As the above chart shows, clubs spend money to make money.

Some clubs fail to fill their stadiums. ( AAP: Dan Peled )

They will cut some costs as a result of not servicing memberships and running matchdays in that period, which will mean hardship or job losses for commercial, office, and event staff at clubs.

Most clubs will lose a lot of their net revenue from closing their gates, but it may not affect smaller clubs as much considering they don't usually make a lot from their matchdays.

A big unknown is how clubs will deal with their members. The ABC has reviewed the membership terms and conditions of several AFL and NRL clubs, and there were near universal statements articulating that refunds are entirely at the club's discretion.

They will be sorely tempted to retain this funding to help manage the crisis, despite the potentially fierce public relations backlash. It could also be a legal minefield.

Can clubs take the hit?

As well as making money through broadcast deals and ticket sales, the codes also collect sponsorship and corporate hospitality revenue. This third major source of revenue is also likely to be hit if games aren't played, although it's harder to project any potential losses in sponsorship.

Will clubs keep hold of membership dollars? ( AAP: Julian Smith )

Some clubs profit from relocating games. AFL clubs sell home games to places like Canberra and Tasmania, while NRL clubs take games out west and into country areas. These agreements are lucrative but could be jeopardised by the lockouts.

One way to measure a club's capacity to cope with the coronavirus crisis is to look at their cash reserves and net assets.

The AFL's richest clubs such as West Coast and Richmond have spare cash resources and other assets or investments to enable them to absorb the huge revenue losses they're facing. Some clubs have substantial side businesses, with a few AFL and NRL clubs heavily subsidised by social club gaming machines.

Others are in a more precarious position and will be forced to either drastically cut costs — including staff — or to take new loans using assets as equity. Some may need to be bailed out.

There are rough waters ahead.