“Manufacturing is still flat after you pull out the returning strike numbers,” Mr. Zhao said. “It’s still suffering from headwinds from the trade war, but at least it’s not worsening.”

The 7-cent increase in average hourly wages last month was also disappointing considering that the jobless rate is at a half-century low. Wages were up 3.1 percent from a year earlier.

However modest the pay increase, it has given Americans the confidence to keep buying, which is crucial in an economy where consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the gross domestic product.

Among businesses, worries about the economy seemed to peak this summer. Since then, there have been signs that slowdown fears are easing, said Joe Galvin, chief research officer of Vistage, an association of small-business owners and executives.

Roughly 60 percent of the 654 employers surveyed in November by Vistage said they planned to expand their head count next year. Just 4 percent were planning cuts.

Mr. Galvin noted that the uncertainty surrounding trade had been unnerving. Nonetheless, “people feel good about their prospects,” he said. Laughing, he added: “You can’t have a recession when there’s full employment.”

Strong Gains in Most Industries