In reaction to the military movements in and around Crimea from the last few weeks, many claimed that Russia was prepping a possible invasion of mainland Ukraine through Crimea. Lending credibility to this theory were some dramatic measures taken by Russia during the ongoing Kavkaz-2016 military exercises involving the Southern Military District, which includes Crimea, the Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and other regions that have seen a dramatic uptick of military movements. On August 29, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that its fighter jets on the Ukrainian border are on a two-minute readiness alert, and the state-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports that Russian Airborne Forces (paratroopers) were deployed to the Opuk training ground in eastern Crimea. In March 2014, before Russia sent thousands of its tanks, missile systems, and active servicemen into Ukraine, President Obama and U.S. officials warned of a massive Russian military presence along the border, coinciding with military exercises. Months later, many of these troops invaded Ukraine, sent a Buk-M1 TELAR numbered 332 into Ukraine, helped win the Battle of Ilovaysk in August, and later sent a second surge in February 2015 to secure the railway hub of Debaltseve for separatist forces, all documented in the 2015 Atlantic Council report “Hiding in Plain Sight.”

The open source information does not support the conclusion that a repeat of 2014 is happening in Crimea in August 2016. Along with Crimea, we have seen significant movements and deployments of Russian equipment in the Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast; however, in the case of an impending invasion from Crimea, one would expect an amassing of equipment at Russian military positions in northern Crimea, such as Dzhankoi and Armyansk. Instead, we see movements both into Crimea via the Kerch ferry, and out of Crimea via the same route, along with movement of equipment between major road and railways connecting military bases in southern Crimea, such as in Simferopol and Sevastopol. There has been witness accounts of military activity near the aforementioned northern Crimean military bases near Dzhankoi and Armyansk, but there is scant evidence indicating that there have been large-scale deployments of new equipment from Russia’s Krasnodar Krai or Rostov Oblast into these areas.

Michael Kofman from the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute provides analysis of the Crimean confusion in a column for War on the Rocks that coincides with the openly accessible digital footprints. The military deployments in Crimea are not likely an omen of an invasion, but instead a combination of the Kavkaz-2016 exercises that were already scheduled to be held in the Southern Military District, regular rotations, and a possible upsurge in activity in Syria. It should be noted that Russian troops and equipment often leave from Crimea to reach Syria. Kofman suggests that “most of the current activity is likely in response to the security alert on the peninsula, with other troop movements planned well in advance” and “in line with an intense schedule or readiness checks and troop rotations set for August and September.” As Kofman points out, a U.S. official’s statement supports his conclusion, saying that “a recent rotation of several divisions of Russian forces into Crimea to relieve an equal number, which have since departed.”

Additionally, the photographic and video sightings of Bastion-P systems that went viral on social media should not come as a shock, as Russia deployed these missile systems in Crimea in 2014 — and they were prominently displayed in the May 9, 2014 Victory Day parade in Sevastopol. Furthermore, there are videos from Russian media of the Bastion-P system performing exercises in Crimea in 2014. Russia may be sending more Bastion-P systems that will remain after the Kavkaz-2016 exercises, but their deployment in Crimea was well-known over two years ago.