Bill Glauber

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin has seized command in her race against Republican challenger Leah Vukmir, according to Tuesday's Marquette University Law School Poll.

Among likely voters, Baldwin led Vukmir by 53 percent to 42 percent. The 11-point margin marked a substantial bump for Baldwin, who led Vukmir by 49-47 in August.

But with seven weeks to go, there is plenty of time for Vukmir to turn the tide.

At this stage of the 2016 race, Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson trailed Democratic challenger Russ Feingold in the Marquette Poll by 7 points but ended up winning that November.

“This poll is a snapshot of a very competitive race," said Vukmir campaign manager Jess Ward.

The Vukmir campaign has vowed to step up attacks on Baldwin over the scandal at the Tomah Veterans Affairs Medical Center.

For its part, the Baldwin campaign remains on the offensive, hitting Vukmir hard on health care issues.

Vukmir, a state senator from Brookfield, remains relatively unknown, with 36 percent of registered voters unable to offer an opinion on her. And among those who do have an opinion, Vukmir is underwater, with 26 percent viewing her favorably and 38 percent viewing her unfavorably.

By comparison, 48 percent have a favorable view of Baldwin and 40 percent an unfavorable view.

Vukmir was supported by 86 percent of Republicans and Baldwin was backed by 97 percent of Democrats. Among independents, Baldwin led by 54-38.

The poll found Baldwin trouncing Vukmir among white female college graduates, 64-30, and leading among non-college white females, 57-40. Vukmir had an advantage with non-college white males, 54-41, and white college males were evenly divided between the candidates at 48-48.

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Trump approval

President Donald Trump's job approval dropped in this survey, to 42 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval. In August, 45 percent approved of his performance and 51 percent disapproved.

"The striking thing with Trump in our data but more so nationally is from roughly last December through the middle of the summer he sort of steadily edged his way up from about a 36 percent national approval to about a 42 national approval," poll director Charles Franklin said.

Supreme Court debate

Opinion on U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh was split, with 29 percent having a favorable view of him and 29 percent an unfavorable view. Most of the poll was conducted before allegations against Kavanaugh of a teenage sexual assault came to light.

Obamacare views

On the Affordable Care Act, 4 percent said it should stay as is, 55 percent said it should be kept but improved, 25 percent said it should be repealed and replaced and 10 percent wanted it repealed and not replaced.

Forty-seven percent had a favorable view of the health care law and 45 percent said they had an unfavorable view of the law.

Opinion of John McCain

The late U.S. Sen. John McCain, an Arizona Republican, was viewed favorably by 70 percent of all registered voters and unfavorably by 19 percent. But it turned out McCain had higher favorable ratings among Democrats (85 percent) and independents (65 percent) than Republicans (59 percent).

Among Republicans with a favorable view of McCain, Trump's approval rating was 72 percent, while among those Republicans with an unfavorable view of McCain, Trump's approval rating was 93 percent.

Majority oppose tariffs

On tariffs and trade, 31 percent said tariffs on foreign-made steel and aluminum will help the economy and 52 percent said they think tariffs will hurt the economy. Fifty-nine percent of Republicans said tariffs are good for the economy while 76 percent of Democrats said tariffs are bad for the economy.

The survey of 800 Wisconsin registered voters was conducted Wednesday through Sunday night. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among 614 likely voters, the margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

One key aspect in the current poll was the partisan makeup of the sample of likely voters, including those who lean to a party.

In the September poll, 46 percent of likely voters identified as Republican and 47 percent identified as Democratic. In the August poll, it was 48 percent Republican and 42 percent Democratic.