Traditional priests may (will?) outnumber non-traditional priests in France by 2038 July 7, 2014

Posted by Tantumblogo in Basics

And, I would think, traditional Catholics will similarly outnumber non-traditional ones around the same time.

This is actually a phenomenon I have speculated on in an anecdotal manner on this blog. Looking at the trends in France, in particular, where, I will say it, Novus Ordo parishes and priestly vocations have collapsed to ludicrously low levels, and with the strong presence of not only the Society of St. Pius X, but also the FSSP, Institute of the Good Shepherd, and other groups, I have posited for some time that traditional Catholics would become a majority in France within a 15-20 years. For instance, it is already known that 30+% of all ordinations in France are for traditional groups/order. It turns out, my estimate was not far off, someone graphed the trends and found that traditional priests will outnumber non-traditional ones around 2038 (via Rorate twitter feed):

2038 is not very far away – only 24 years. So, I may live to see the day when traditional Catholicism makes up the majority of a much smaller Church in many countries. Rorate noted that the trend lines do not include the monastic orders, which have quite a few priests among them. That would make the transition occur even earlier. I also think the increase in traditional priestly vocations will gradually depart from the linear growth model shown above to a more asymptotic one (it will go more vertical). But when such will occur is only for the Lord to know.

In detail, I’m not sure how reliable the data is, especially pinpointing the rate of decay of non-traditional priests, but I think the overall trend, in France, at least, is reliable. Traditional Catholicism is very strong in France, and the post-conciliar new order very weak, so that there likely will be a convergence at some point. Whether that is in 2038, or 2025, or 2100, I don’t know, but it will occur. It will be fascinating to see how such a situation plays out, especially if the post-conciliar status quo remains in place with hostile progressives occupying most of the levers of power. Or will the status quo remain? One would think that if the post-conciliar Church does collapse to such a marked extent, there would have to be some movement towards a more traditional mode of belief and practice, but who knows? Ideology is a powerful thing, sometimes, the most powerful thing. Such circumstances could even engender increased radicalism.

But they could also be remarkably clarifying. If the Church really is faced with a new religion in the post-conciliar ethos, observing the reaction of the “new religion” to a situation where traditional priests and Catholics outnumber non-traditional ones could unmistakably reveal the differences and provide a clear picture of the stark contrast between the two. Not that I hope such occurs. Quite the contrary, I’d rather see a holy, devout, strong, vibrant, growing, orthodox Church all around. But I’m afraid we may not get there before experiencing the very nadir of contraction and destruction, first.

On a related note, how sad will it be to think that France will almost certainly have fewer than 1500 priests within 30 years or so? Incredible, and not in a good way. I would hazard to guess Paris alone had around 1000 priests a century or so ago. Maybe more recently than that. And now the entire country most likely will not muster even 1500 at some point in the not too distant future? Tragic.

Finally, let’s not have the comments devolve into warring camps proclaiming “SSPX are our saviors” versus “SSPX are protestant”. I think we can comment and discuss this likely future scenario without going down that particular rabbit hole.