The Cowboys lost to an 0-4 Jets team on Sunday, a team they were supposed to dominate. For those hoping Dallas head coach Jason Garrett would be shown the door in short order, they shouldn’t be holding their breath. It’s more than likely not happening in the middle of the 2019 NFL season, no matter how dire things get. Whether or not it will happen whenever this campaign comes to an end is another question, however.

The prevailing line of thought heading into the year was if the Cowboys failed to reach the NFC Championship game, something not seen around Dallas in more than two decades, Garrett would most certainly be on his way out. There’s only one man’s opinion that matters when it comes to who’s at the helm, and that would be Jerry Jones, owner and general manager of the most valuable franchise in the world.

On Tuesday morning Jones made an appearance on 105.3 The Fan and what he said will have fans shaking their heads harder than a hood ornament.

“I have felt that we got a lot invested in Jason Garrett. He’s had a lot of years that he’s been a part of the Cowboys and he evolved into what, I think, is a top coach. He would be a very sought after coach if he were out here in the open market. So, there’s a lot of pluses there.

He brings a lot to the table and I can genuinely say that that is not a thought that I am having. So, it would be unfair to our fans for me to have any indication about what I may think the future is as far as head coach. Everybody is aware that we’re on the last year of his agreement. But that really just means that we can all sit down and take a look at things at the end of the year. That was the case when he won the first three ballgames, and still the case today after losing the last three.”

Garrett is not the worst head coach in the league. He has his strengths, largely having a heavy hand in building a competent roster. But a top coach? If that feels like a stretch it’s because it is. Head coaches are going to be judged by their ability to win big games, despite the malaise Sunday’s defeat to the winless Jets has put fans in.

Defining what’s a big game is subjective, but for the purposes of this piece, beating teams with a winning record would be a good place to start. Upon examination, Garrett is not passing the test.

Using Pro Football Reference’s Team Finder to suss out each active head coach’s record against winning teams at season’s end in either the regular season or playoffs reveals a cold, hard fact. Against good teams, Garrett has been mediocre at best.

Here’s a list of all active coaches with at least one year of experience through the end of the last complete season, 2018.

Team Coach Years Active Record vs

Winning Teams Win % New England Patriots Bill Belichick 2000-2019 107-63 0.629 Los Angeles Rams Sean McVay 2017-2019 14-10 0.583 Chicago Bears Matt Nagy 2018-2019 5-4 0.556 Indianapolis Colts Frank Reich 2018-2019 6-5 0.545 Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Tomlin 2007-2019 51-46 0.526 Seattle Seahawks Pete Carroll 2010-2019 38-38 0.500 Philadelphia Eagles Doug Pederson 2016-2019 16-17 0.485 New Orelans Saints Sean Payton 2006-2019 48-52 0.480 Kansas City Chiefs Andy Reid 2013-2019 25-31 0.446 Los Angeles Chargers Anthony Lynn 2017-2019 8-10 0.444 Atlanta Falcons Dan Quinn 2015-2019 15-21 0.417 Baltimore Ravens John Harbaugh 2008-2019 38-57 0.400 Carolina Panthers Ron Rivera 2011-2019 25-39-1 0.392 Dallas Cowboys Jason Garrett 2010-2019 25-43 0.367 Tennessee Titans Mike Vrabel 2018-2019 4-7 0.364 Minnesota Vikings Mike Zimmer 2014-2019 14-28 0.333 Jacksonville Jaguars Doug Marrone 2017-2019 8-17 0.320 Houston Texans Bill O’Brien 2014-2019 13-32 0.289 San Francisco 49ers Kyle Shanahan 2017-2019 4-13 0.235 Oakland Raiders Jon Gruden 2018-2019 3-10 0.231 Buffalo Bills Sean McDermott 2017-2019 4-14 0.222 New York Giants Pat Shurmur 2018-2019 2-10 0.167 Detroit Lions Matt Patricia 2018-2019 1-9 0.100

Garrett shows up at No. 14 on a list of only 23 teams. To be fair to Jones’ comment, he did say Garrett has evolved into one of the top coaches, not that he has always been one.

With that in mind, let’s try to parse when that may have happened. Start by discounting 2010 when he replaced former head coach Wade Phillips in a lost season, and then to be even more kind, leave off the three subsequent meme solidifying 8-8 years that followed, and look at only 2014 and beyond.

His record against winning teams since just 2014 is 18-24, good for a .429 winning percentage which would still leaves him outside the top 10. Apologists will point to the injury to former quarterback Tony Romo in 2015, but it’s no excuse.

There are great coaches who have overcome such strenuous circumstances, and those opportunities have increased the luster of those men.

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, for example, went 11-5 with Matt Cassel playing quarterback in lieu of Tom Brady. Sean Payton, head coach of the New Orleans Saints has won four games in a row with Teddy Bridgewater in place of sure fire Hall of Famer Drew Brees.

No matter how it’s cut, Garrett has trouble winning the games that matter most. The kind of wins that define great teams have largely eluded him. So far he’s been able to escape the chopping block by handling the “gimmes”, but if losses like the one last Sunday against the New York Jets keep happening, Jones might resolve himself to finding a new head coach.