Blackburn builds big 14-point lead in New York Times poll, but Bredesen campaign says race still tight

Joey Garrison | The Tennessean

Show Caption Hide Caption Tennessee U.S. Senate race polls: Phil Bredesen, Marsha Blackburn vie to replace Bob Corker A look at the several polls detailing the race of Marsha Blackburn and Phil Bredesen for U.S. Senate

Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn has widened her lead to a commanding 14 percentage points over Democratic rival Phil Bredesen, according to the latest major public poll of Tennessee's U.S. Senate race.

But the Bredesen campaign is pushing back in a memo to supporters that highlights recent internal polls taken by the campaign that show the race is still tight.

A poll released last week by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College found Blackburn, a conservative congressman from Williamson County, with support from 54 percent of respondents compared to 40 percent for Bredesen, former Tennessee governor. Six percent said they are undecided.

The New York Times poll, a survey of 593 registered voters taken between Oct. 8 and Oct. 11, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Third straight public poll with Blackburn increasing lead

It's the third straight public poll that has Blackburn increasing her lead following a Fox News poll on Oct. 3 that showed her up 5 points and an Oct. 9 CBS poll that showed her up 8 points.

Early voting begins Wednesday ahead of the Nov. 6 election.

The uptick for Blackburn has coincided with the partisan-fueled confirmation fight of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh that appears to have given an initial jolt to Republican candidates running in red states.

But Bredesen campaign manager Bob Corney, in a memo obtained by the Tennessean, points to a pair of internal tracking polls taken this month, one from Oct. 3 to Oct. 6 and the other from Oct. 8 to Oct. 11.

Combined, the two polls have Blackburn leading by only a margin of 48 percent to 47 percent.

The surveys, a sample of 600 likely statewide voters conducted by Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

An internal poll from the same pollster had Bredesen leading 47 to 45 percent from Sept. 23 to Sept. 25.

The U.S. Senate debate between Marsha Blackburn and Phil Bredesen in 3 minutes The U.S. Senate debate between Marsha Blackburn and Phil Bredesen in 3 minutes

"If we keep doing our jobs and stay focused between now and Nov.6, we’ll soon be welcoming Sen. Bredesen to the world’s greatest deliberative body," Corney writes in the memo.

"He’s got this. We’ve got this, together. Onward."

Polls have shown wildly different results before

A fundraising email sent Friday by the Senate Conservatives Fund, which supports Blackburn, also said that Blackburn is up just 2 percentage points, making the race "too close" to call."

Polls of Tennessee's U.S. Senate race have shown wildly different results at times.

In July, a poll from Survey Monkey for the website Axios had Blackburn with a 14-point lead at the same time an Emerson College poll had Bredesen up 6 percentage points.

One of the biggest discrepancies between the new New York Times and Bredesen campaign polls involves responses from voters who identified as independents.

In the New York Times poll, 49 percent of respondents said they support Bredesen, compared to 43 percent for Blackburn.

But Bredesen enjoys a much larger lead among independents in the internal poll, receiving 53 percent of support from this group with Blackburn getting 33 percent.

Corney, in the campaign memo, also references the significant boost in outside spending on negative television ads that Blackburn has received.

Blackburn has been boosted by $16.5 million spent by outside groups, more than double the $6.6 million that has benefited Bredesen.

"The fact that this race is a dead heat — despite us being significantly outspent — is a testament to the deep reservoir of confidence and goodwill that Governor Bredesen built up among Tennessee voters during his eight years leading our state, and over the course of this campaign," Corney said.

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Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236, jgarrison@tennessean.com and on Twitter @joeygarrison.