In talking about the young Crew SC season, phrases like “generating a lot of chances” and “clear goal-scoring opportunities” have dominated the conversation.



It’s easy to see why those phrases pop up, based on the team’s play. In most of its games this season, Columbus has passed the eye test. Crew SC plays aesthetically pleasing soccer, rarely prioritizes defending and has a tendency to score pretty goals.



But those chances and opportunities and that pretty play haven’t produced wins as of late. The club has followed up a 3-0-1 start with a 0-3-1 record over the last month. And while the naked eye may not be able to explain why, a look at the team’s expected goals can help.



Some of the few people regularly tracking MLS expected goals – usually abbreviated xG – are the folks at American Soccer Analysis, where xG is calculated by player, team and game.



At ASA, they explain xG as “the...