Columnist Red Jahncke of the the New York Sun tells Breitbart News Daily host Stephen K. Bannon on Sirius XM that frontrunner Donald Trump will likely lock up the Republican presidential nomination if he wins the Florida primary on March 15.

Even if the race isn’t fully over on that date, if Sen. Marco Rubio can’t catch and beat Trump, who now enjoys a double-digit lead there, to win his home state, Jahncke thinks it’s over for Rubio.

Jahncke also thinks Sen. Ted Cruz can survive a slight loss in his home state (Texas votes on Tuesday), while Rubio cannot because of delegate distribution. Said Jahncke, “The three challengers to the Donald have to defend territory over the next three weeks. Donald is free to move about the country like Southwest Airlines.” When asked about having to defend their home states, Jahncke added, “How do you tell voters that you’re the man when you haven’t gotten the backing of the people who know you? You have to win in your home state.”

He later added, “If you look at the home state imperative with a little closer lens there are a couple other things going on. Texas is proportional. Ted Cruz could lose by a hair and be viable. Marco Rubio could lose by a hair in Florida, same outcome, he’s dead.”

Jahncke first laid out his view in The New York Sun here.

If Donald Trump wins the Florida primary on March 15, he will have sewn up the GOP nomination. The odds are that he will win the Sunshine State, where the latest polls show him at 40%, 21 points ahead of second place in the Real Clear Politics average.

As for the current state of play in Florida, per CNN:

Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is in serious danger of losing his home state to Republican presidential rival Donald Trump, a new poll shows. Trump leads Rubio 44% to 28% in the Sunshine State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of Florida released Thursday. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas placed third with 12% support, ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 7% and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 4%. The survey shows Florida voters are beginning to make up their minds: Only 5% of likely Republican primary voters said they are undecided, though 30% say they may change which candidate they support. The Florida GOP primary, which awards the winner all of its 99 delegates, will take place March 15.

The entire interview can be heard below. Breitbart News Daily airs from 6AM-9AM EST on Sirius XM Patriot channel 125.