Former Brexit minister Steve Baker says ‘in the end, it’s not really about the backstop’

Eurosceptic Conservative MPs will still vote down the government’s Brexit deal even if Theresa May negotiates an exit clause from the Irish backstop, the former minister Steve Baker has insisted.

May’s cabinet has been locked in a bitter internal wrangle about whether, and how, the government could extricate itself from the backstop, with some ministers concerned her plans could leave the UK in a permanent limbo.

The prime minister hopes to win the backing of her ministers for a draft withdrawal agreement at a special cabinet meeting likely to take place early next week.

But Baker, a leading figure in the backbench European Research Group (ERG), said Conservative MPs would be closely scrutinising the accompanying political declaration setting out the framework for the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU27.

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“In the end, it’s not really about the backstop,” he said. “The tearing frustration is that the UK has been negotiating with itself.

“Many of us have long believed that the row over the backstop is at least partly confected in order to have an orchestrated breakthrough”.

The DUP also underlined their objections to May’s approach, casting fresh doubt on her ability to get a deal through parliament. In a letter to the DUP leader Arlene Foster, which was leaked to the Times, May said that the EU is still pushing for a so-called “backstop to the backstop”, which would keep the province in regulatory alignment with the Republic of Ireland to avoid a hard border.

Quick guide Brexit and backstops: an explainer Show Hide A backstop is required to ensure there is no hard border in Ireland if a comprehensive free trade deal cannot be signed before the end of 2020. Theresa May has proposed to the EU that the whole of the UK would remain in the customs union after Brexit, but Brussels has said it needs more time to evaluate the proposal. As a result, the EU insists on having its own backstop - the backstop to the backstop - which would mean Northern Ireland would remain in the single market and customs union in the absence of a free trade deal, prompting fierce objections from Conservative hard Brexiters and the DUP, which props up her government. That prompted May to propose a country-wide alternative in which the whole of the UK would remain in parts of the customs union after Brexit. “The EU still requires a ‘backstop to the backstop’ – effectively an insurance policy for the insurance policy. And they want this to be the Northern Ireland-only solution that they had previously proposed,” May told MPs. Raising the stakes, the prime minister said the EU’s insistence amounted to a threat to the constitution of the UK: “We have been clear that we cannot agree to anything that threatens the integrity of our United Kingdom,” she added.

In the letter May said she would never allow a divide between the province and Britain “to come into force”. The Times said this had been interpreted by the DUP as a sign that the clause will be inserted into the legally binding agreement.

May relies on the support of the DUP’s 10 MPs for her Commons majority, votes that may become crucial as she attempts to get a deal through parliament. However, Foster told the Times that May’s letter “raises alarm bells for those who value the integrity of our precious union and for those who want a proper Brexit for the whole of the UK”.

Baker said that he and his pro-leave colleagues would focus their attention on the declaration. “Conservative MPs expect to get some commitment for the money. The overwhelming attitude of Conservative MPs is that paying £39bn for nothing is totally unacceptable,” he said.

The government hopes it can win over Tory sceptics and some Labour MPs with firm reassurances that the Irish backstop will not be indefinite.

But Baker said few would be convinced. If the deal is voted down, he predicted there would be a moment of “profound political crisis”, during which Eurosceptic Tory MPs would be able to shift the government’s negotiating stance towards a looser future relationship with the EU.

Meanwhile, anti-Brexit MPs believe if the deal is voted down, the crucial days afterwards could be when parliament seizes control of the process and insists on a second referendum or at least a closer future relationship with the EU.

The UK believes it made a breakthrough in persuading the EU’s Brexit negotiators to consider including a UK-wide backstop – in effect a temporary customs union – in the withdrawal agreement, avoiding the threat of a customs border in the Irish Sea.

However, this appears to have failed to convince the DUP and, as a quid pro quo, the EU is insisting on stringent “level playing field” conditions that would tie the UK to EU regulations in a series of key areas, including state aid and workers’ rights.

The taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, underlined that view on Thursday. “We want the future relationship between the EU and UK to be as close as possible, but it must provide a level playing field and the integrity of our single market must be upheld,” the Irish prime minister said.

“The ball is very much in London’s court. Internal British politics is really a matter for them. I just hope Prime Minister May is in a position to get any potential agreement through her cabinet and through her parliament.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Theresa May reassured Arlene Foster that she would never allow a divide between the province and Britain “’to come into force’. Photograph: WPA Pool/Getty Images

The backstop was included in the December agreement with the EU27 as an attempt to avoid a hard border in Ireland, and has since gone on to shape the negotiations.

Baker claimed signing up to it – a decision that took place when he was a minister in the Department for Exiting the EU – had been used by Downing Street as a ploy to secure a softer Brexit.

“If you look at the evolution of the discussion on the Irish backstop, it became a very good excuse to say we have to have a high alignment Brexit,” he said – meaning a relationship in which the UK obeys EU rules.

Cabinet ministers are expected to be asked to sign up to some form of review mechanism, which would see the UK and the EU27 consider jointly whether conditions had been met for the Irish backstop to come to an end.

However, the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, cast doubt on whether that would be acceptable on Thursday. Asked by the BBC about how the UK could extricate itself from the backstop, he said: “That has to be a mechanism where ultimately that decision has to lie with the sovereign British government.”

Fox was entering the Cabinet Office, where senior ministers have been invited to read the draft withdrawal agreement. One source has suggested it runs to 300 pages.

A Whitehall source suggested the agreement could be published as soon as next Wednesday, and the UK hopes EU ministers will respond by giving the go-ahead for an EU Brexit summit at the end of this month.

In Brussels, a senior EU diplomat said he was “fairly certain” that an agreement between the negotiators was within reach but that member states would then need a few days to examine any deal before a November Brexit summit, possibly to take place sometime between 22 and 25 November, could be convened.

Ambassadors for the 27 other EU member states are meeting on Friday to be briefed by Michel Barnier, the bloc’s chief negotiator, after a Wednesday update was cancelled to allow the talks more time.

“In next few days, we will have to see,” the diplomat said. He ruled out a weekend of drama given the armistice commemorations around EU capitals.

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