With historic terrorist attacks, decisive actions, coups, and more, 2016 will certainly be a year to remember. The drama of politics is taking many turns. This is also proving to be a significant year for the United States’ Republican Party. With recent polarization in the public discourse, the Republican and Democratic Parties have drifted further away from each other. For the GOP, this culminated in the rise of Donald Trump. Trump’s rise caused the Republicans to begin to tear themselves apart; George Will, Iowa State Senator David Johnson, and several others have left the Republican Party; Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney are strongly considering voting for the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. This leads to one inevitable conclusion; the Republican Party is beginning the process of disintegration, churning the political drama of the United States.

Setting the Stage

The precursor to the beginning of the end was the Tea Party overstaying its welcome. In 2009, the Tea Party movement had a purpose, and it communicated its message. In 2010, they were able to get members of their movement elected in the mid-term elections. At that point, the Tea Party had been heard, and the GOP pivoted to be more mindful of their small-government roots.

Despite the success, the Tea Party movement continued to rail against government and became increasingly polarized. After 2010, Tea Party legislators caused more havoc than anything else with their continual refusal to work with the Democrats, and sometimes other Republicans. They shunned any calls to compromise to ensure continuity of government; they allowed the government to shut down.

Progressively, the Tea Party also disapproved to a greater extent more moderate Republican candidates and those whom the Tea Party deemed to much of an “insider.” More and more, Republican public servants were replaced by hard-to-please, inflexible Tea Party activists.

The 2016 election truly was ripe for a GOP return to the White House. The Democrats’ front runner was a woman with a questionable record whom many, even on the Democratic side, did not trust. 2016 was the Republicans’ election to lose. All they needed to do was keep the more reactionary sects of the party at bay and nominate a sane, respectable candidate for president. Unfortunately for them, the Republicans seem to never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

Enter Donald J. Trump

In June 2015, Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president. Most people looked on with intrigue but did not take him seriously after his ridiculous proposal to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. All rational people who heard that scoffed. That could never happen. In fact, Dana Perino, former Press Secretary for President George W. Bush and current host of the Fox News talk show The Five remarked, “On what planet is that actually true?”

For the early part of the presidential campaigns, most of the nation neither took Trump nor his supporters too seriously. He was a blustering, offensive, thin-skinned man. He was more a reality show spectacle than serious presidential contender for a major political party. While the Republicans had in recent history elected a few rather reactionary officials, but most everyone believed that the GOP would come to its senses and nominate a sane candidate out of the seventeen that were in the running.

The primary changed everything, though. It was expected that Trump would win a handful of states and come close in others, but his success came as an absolute shock. Many individuals asked why and how he was so successful. The reason was that he was different; he was outside the political class. He spoke directly to the far right wing, the wing that is anti-compromise. He spoke to the Tea Party, which morphed from having a stance rooted in the belief in small government to a stance rooted in ultra-conservatism.

Trump was hailed as “not being politically correct” and “telling it the way it is.” In fact, this is untrue. He was not just “not politically correct”; he was intentionally offensive. He was not “telling it the way it [was]”; he was being an alarmist. This inflamed the base of the Tea Party and those who have similar beliefs in support of Trump. Typically, these people did not vote in primaries, and they generally did not pay much attention to politics until the general election. Unfortunately, these people have taken hold of the Republican Party.

Exeunt Republican Party

In November, there are only three possible outcomes, and none of them are beneficial to the GOP.

Outcome One: Re-enter GOP

The first outcome is the best for the Republicans. Trump will lose, and the GOP insiders will reassert control over their party. However, it will be tarnished for a long while afterward. The damage that Trump did to the Republican brand will take years to repair, but the party will still be alive. Those who left in frustration and anger because of the Trump nomination will come back to the party and purge the more rancorous segments of the party. It would take years, and probably several election cycles, but the GOP will be strong again.

Outcome Two: Fade-out GOP, Fade-in Successors

The second outcome is that Trump loses, but the GOP will not recover. The insiders will not be able to reclaim their leadership. The Republican Party will become nothing but a vaguely populist party that becomes increasingly irrelevant. There will be some die-hard insiders who will stay and endeavor to remedy the situation, but it will be to no avail.

Because of this, two effects of this will be that a new party will be formed, a sort of Republican Party in exile that becomes the true standard bearer for true Conservative thinking. Also, the Libertarian Party will begin registering new Republican refugees, mostly those who are ardent supporters of small government and less concerned with social issues.

The “New Republican Party,” for lack of a better wording, will look very similar to the GOP of the Reagan and Bush eras. That is, it would be somewhat socially conservative with some leanings toward small government. Most likely, it would take several election cycles to truly become a political force. When it does, though, this new party will be more inclined to compromise. It will have shed much of the baggage of the current GOP.

Furthermore, the Libertarian Party will begin to become more mainstream. It will begin pulling from both the old GOP and the Democrats who are disenchanted with the party’s more progressive heading. Because of this influx of new members, the Libertarians will need to tweak their platform and make it broader than just legalization of marijuana to make it more palatable to the masses.

As the old Republican Party fades further into obscurity, the new Republicans and Libertarians will take more to the national stage. For some time, the country will run on a three party system. (Though, most likely, the Democrats will be the most successful during this time.) Eventually, the Libertarians and the new Republicans will merge bringing the United States back to a two party system.

Outcome Three: Last Breath of the GOP

In this unlikely scenario, Trump wins the general election. However, his presidency will be an utter disaster. The Trump administration will be marked by fits of rage and hawkish behavior. More than likely, he will be a single-term president. This term, though, will be enough to effectively neutralize the Republican Party.

Ultimately, the result will be similar to the second outcome, but the current Republican Party will dissolve far more rapidly. This could have the effect of the Tea Party wing moving to both the new Republicans and the Libertarians in equal measure. While they would be present, though, these reactionaries will never have as much power as they had when they bled the Republican Party of legitimacy.

Epilogue

2016 is a watershed year with a watershed election. History will look back at this election as a turning point in American political history. No matter the outcome, the Republican Party will never be the same. The development of the Trump phenomenon has damned the GOP and conservatism for, at least, the next few years. Politics is a drama, though, and with each new development, the drama deepens. Certainly, 2016 will be remembered as one of the most dramatic years.