In January, when I first started writing about the coronavirus that has officially been given the name of COVID-19, I said that it was still too early to tell what the trajectory of the outbreak would be or if it would eventually become a pandemic.

Unfortunately, it is now official. COVID-19 is a pandemic. So, I wanted to follow up on the current status of four charts I considered critical for monitoring the global spread.

The overall situation is deteriorating rapidly. Community infections are now widespread. The number of new cases is now beyond any threshold a rational observer would consider “under control.”

At the end of February, the number of cases worldwide was about 5%. Now, almost a third of all cases are worldwide. There is, however, some positive news in this next chart which shows the ratio of cases outside of China to overall cases. Even though this chart shows a steep rise, indicating global spread, it also means that the relative number of new cases in China is slowing down. Assuming the reported Chinese numbers are accurate, it means that transmission can be slowed to some extent.

Back to pessimism, we also have to recognize that no two countries are alike. They differ in their ability to respond. China took drastic measures in response to the outbreak. And, with the number of countries that now have confirmed cases, we cannot guarantee that every last one will be able to fully mitigate the damage.

Since the end of February, the number of countries reporting cases has doubled.

Finally, this last chart is really one about a story that is too early to tell, which makes it super important for ongoing monitoring. By dividing the number of deaths outside of China by the number of infections outside of China, we can continue to assess the global mortality rate, which we won’t know for certain until the disease has finished its course. As of now, the non-China mortality rate is lower than in China (about 3.5%) but barely and climbing steeply.

The data continues to tell an increasingly alarming story and I will continue to track material news and developments as they occur. As I have said many times before, let’s continue to hope for the best in all of this.

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