The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.

Otto von Bismark (1815-1898).

There is no remedy for a collective nostalgia of an empire, among its subjects, which has long disappeared. The ghost of the past glory can haunt the national psyche for many years to come in a way where the collective national leap to present is hard for the once shining and commanding past. Edward Gibbon’s landmark history of the Roman Empire elegantly captured that thesis.

Moreover, the political class, if needed, can harp on the past triumphs to excite and manipulate the masses to achieve any purpose – no matter how sinister, including blaming the outsiders for any internal misfortunes of a once mighty global player. By galvanizing the ancient memory of greatness and relevance, the leader/s of a once mighty empire, can skillfully divert the attention from internal decay. That, in essence, sums the contemporary Russian situation.

The glitter of Sochi spectacle does not tell the whole story of Russia’s political, economic and social upheaval while it’s sole self-proclaimed protector, President Putin continues to plow ahead with the vision of bringing Moscow back in the commanding center of the international system through proxy support to regimes like Iran and Syria and inflaming the internal dynamics of other nations such as Ukraine and Hungary instead of rebuilding the Russian state through cohesive and focused economic and social policies. The Russian economy has been losing steam since the fall in the commodity prices and the Ruble continues its slide – level never seen since 2009. The Russian demographic challenge is well documented and with a shrinking middle-class who is fed-up with Oligarch driven corruption, Russia as a state is facing its own internal challenges.

These are indeed tense times between the West and Russia, especially the Russian-US relations. The suspicion has grown on both sides and there is little or no commitment to strategic partnership on major global issues. But, one must not be surprised with this realistic assessment of the Russia-West relationship. Russia’s challenge to the West has been building up for several years. The NATO expansion on its doorstep is a thorn in Russian eyes and even though the common consensus even in Russia, regarding the Missile shield, is that it is to protect the Eastern front from Iran, Russian psyche still sees it as an assault on the Russian sovereignty and territorial integrity on its surroundings. And then, there is this proxy showdown between Russia and the West which has been happening for the last several years in places such Georgia, Hungary, Poland and now Ukraine.The stakes in this geopolitical gamble for Moscow and Brussels-Washington axis are very high. The ongoing unrest in Ukraine is a result of Moscow’s relentless pursuit of influence, by any means, including the economic aid, to Kiev.

Meanwhile, the collective Western response continues to be lukewarm and without any clear guidelines or certain threshold which could create a feeling of I-have-your-back-argument for those who are putting their lives on the lines to shackle the Russian influence on their nation. That is why it is important to ask now that the elected leaders of Ukraine are on the run while the economic and social order is in chaos, will there be an economic help for Ukraine? Are the EU and the US up to this task and commitment? At some point, actions must be followed by words in order to develop a credibility and confidence.

Furthermore, the Ukrainian situation also has an internal dynamics at play. The East-West cleavage in Ukraine creates its own complications. The majority of the protesters are from the western part of Ukraine, which does have European leanings as well as borders. Both the eastern and southern parts of the country have deep roots in Russia, dating back not just to Soviet times but to Peter the Great. Their land borders Russia, their factories and farms are intertwined with Russian markets. The connection between Russia and the Southern-Eastern Ukraine is deep and historical.

As of now, Ukraine will have new elections in May 2014. However, it is not guaranteed that pro-Western candidates would prevail in a new ballot. What would happen if the southern and eastern Ukraine essentially returns the same people to office? A new government could be seated that looks quite similar to the current one—at least in terms of its policies (including maintaining close economic links to Russia and maintaining the status of the Russian language). If the latter regions believe that the westerners are attempting to gain by protest what they could not win at the ballot box, then a shift in government does not guarantee renewed political stability. The coming days for Ukraine will be filed with more chaos, confusion and political instability and Moscow will not give up its aim to make Ukraine a satellite Russian entity. Caught between internal and international intrigue, Ukraine has a tough road ahead.

Preeminently, It is Putin’s Russia. It is his iron grip on every facet of the Russian state which has paved the way for his vision of Russia to be penetrated from Tbilisi to Damascus to Tehran. The so called reset button, which was supposed to transform the US-Russian relations in post 9-11 era, is no longer functioning – if it ever did. Putin’s open support and promotion of the Iranian nuclear sovereignty; the Assad regime and Hezbollah along with the strangulation of the former Soviet republics, is a conscious effort by Putin to restore the traditional pattern of Russian leverage in its relations with the West. The fall of the Soviet Union is still fresh in his memory and the wounds of the Soviet collapse are still not collectively healed.

Russia is determined to regain its former geopolitical heights and Putin’s dream of bringing back former Russian republics, (in which Ukraine is a make-or-break play) under Moscow’s influence, is a major part of his plan. Within this context, it is no surprise that the Ukrainian situation is a transformative moment, whose outcome will set a new course – most probably for the worse – between Russia and the West. The Western response is, mostly, at least until now, encompassed of empty sanctions and lofty gestures of support and assurances. Additionally, said in private, but now public; “F— the EU!” remark by the US Diplomat Nuland, was a reflection of the West’s inability to develop a coherent policy towards Russia or to the former Soviet Republics. While the promise of EU’s economic dynamism continues to be challenged by the ongoing eurozone crisis, Putin has successfully used the anti NATO campaign, within and around the borders of Russia, to advance his own vision of modern Russia which contains certain elements of former Soviet glory.

Moscow’s skillful meddling in the affairs of the Middle-East have irritated and frustrated the West and the U.S. in particular for a long time. While Moscow marches on crushing the Sunni urgency on its borders, along with cementing its ties further with Iran and Syria, the traditional American allies of Saudi Arabia and Israel are losing faith in the US support for their survival. In that manner, Putin has shown an enormous capacity to re-engage Russia in the Middle-East while the West continues to dither and the US response varies from drawing the red lines to arrange meeting after meeting on Iran, Syria and Iraq without any clear goals in sight. The West’s response to Ukrainian situation is similar. How much money and political will, both the US and EU, will invest? Is the US willing to back the EU in a serious effort to bring a united Ukraine under the Western tent? Is the EU, with all its political worries and economic problems, ready to undertake a mission of this scope?

In the end, like all nations, Russia has a choice to make – either today or tomorrow but it has to be made. At some point, the grievances and anger towards the West will run its course and Russia will have to look internally to face its own challenges which are plenty. Yet, the time to make profound choices does not last forever. Russia has a potential to become a serious contender – a 21st century Germany with a thriving economy and a political order, which allows a culture of political dissent and open dialogue on key Russian national issues between Russia’s leaders and its subjects. But that will not happen until Russia becomes a well-functioning state. That is the ultimate choice for Moscow.

And the West has choices to make, too. The Ukrainian situation can have lasting impact on the NATO alliance. What the US and the EU do in the next coming days or weeks will have serious consequences for the future of the world’s oldest alliance. The situation, as of now, in Ukraine is very fluid and circumstances are changing very quickly. In revolutionary situations such as Ukraine, it is quite difficult to predict any outcome; if one attempts to do that. The dice are cast. This will be a long haul game of pure geopolitics. That is one prediction we can certainly make.

photo: Simon Lee / flickr.com / CC BY-SA 2.0