Polling data reveals more Americans support Friday’s executive order banning travel and immigration for people from seven Muslim-majority countries than oppose it. So far, two major surveys have asked American adults about this specific executive order. Both polls suggest that those who back the ban outnumber those who don’t.

The most recent poll was conducted by Reuters and Ipsos on 30 and 31 January, just days after the order was issued. Of the 1,201 adults who responded, 48% said they agreed with the executive order and 41% said they disagreed (the group of respondents included independents as well as an almost even split of Democrats and Republicans).

In all polls, question wording is important but that is particularly true of politically charged topics. In the case of the Reuters/Ipsos poll, the wording was relatively neutral: “Do you agree or disagree with the Executive Order that President Trump signed blocking refugees and banning people from seven Muslim-majority countries from entering the U.S.?” The same was not true of a second survey conducted by Rasmussen, a conservative-leaning polling company.

The Rasmussen poll, conducted days before the order was issued, asked respondents a question which was factually misleading. In total, 1,000 likely voters were asked: “Do you favor or oppose a temporary ban on refugees from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen until the federal government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists from coming here?”



But the order does not ban all refugees – only Muslim refugees. The order states that refugees will be admitted if “the religion of the individual is a minority religion in the individual’s country of nationality” – all seven countries mentioned in the order have a Muslim-majority population.



US travel ban - a brief guide The executive order signed by Donald Trump suspends the entire US refugee admissions system, already one of the most rigorous in the world, for 120 days. It also suspends the Syrian refugee program indefinitely, and bans entry to the US to people from seven majority-Muslim countries – Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen – for 90 days. The order has prompted a series of legal challenges, while thousands of Americans have protested outside airports and courthouses in solidarity with Muslims and migrants.

Moreover, the Rasmussen poll is misleading in its implication that the government does not currently “screen out potential terrorists”. Refugees entering the US already face a rigorous vetting process by at least four separate US government agencies, with dozens of steps which can take up to two years.



Crucially, though, Saturday’s policy was implemented in the context of widespread anti-Muslim feeling in America. A YouGov poll in December 2015 found that 58% of surveyed Americans had an “unfavorable” opinion of Islam. Those views might not change easily, either: 45% of all respondents also said they would not be interested in learning more about Islam.

In November 2015, Donald Trump was asked about whether Muslims in America should be legally required to register themselves in a database. He responded: “I would certainly implement that. Absolutely … There should be a lot of systems beyond databases.” Many Americans agree. A YouGov survey conducted days after the comments found that 40% supported a national policy requiring Muslims “to register with the government and provide their home address”. Those views were more common among older respondents.

Source: YouGov survey of 999 US adults, November 2015 Illustration: Mona Chalabi

Just 0.9% of Americans describe themselves as Muslim according to Pew Research Center, although estimates vary widely partly due to a reluctance to self-identify to interviewers. That too is problematic given that research finds Americans are more likely to like Muslims if they actually know one.