By Kelly Heyboer | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

TRENTON — New Jersey's county colleges charged full-time students an average of $4,700 -- or $123 per credit -- in annual tuition and fees last year, according to state statistics.

Under a new plan, those tuition bills could all disappear.

Gov.-elect Phil Murphy campaigned on a promise to make New Jersey the fifth state in the nation to make county college tuition free for all students.

"We can and we must open the doors of opportunity, wide, for all residents," Murphy said in September, weeks before the Democrat easily beat Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno to win the governor's seat.

Now that Murphy is headed to Trenton, could free county college tuition -- which would cost the state at least $200 million -- become a reality?

Lawrence Nespoli, long-time president of the New Jersey Council of County Colleges, is optimistic. His group, which represents New Jersey's 19 two-year public colleges, has already had talks with Murphy's team about how a free tuition plan would work.

"Not a lot of us have a money tree anywhere, but the governor has a bully pulpit," Nespoli said. "I expect we'll see attention to this important priority."

Here are five reasons experts say free county college tuition could work in New Jersey -- and one big reason the idea might be nothing more than a dream:

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Gov.-elect Phil Murphy has proposed free county college tuition for all New Jersey students. (NJ Advance Media file photo)

1) Murphy has been thinking about a free county college plan for years.

Murphy first began discussing the idea of free county college tuition with state education leaders several years ago through New Start New Jersey, the non-profit advocacy group he founded with his wife. He did a podcast about the idea, long before he announced his plan to run for governor.

The former Goldman Sachs executive saw free county college tuition as a way to help jump start the state's economy. While ambassador to Germany, he saw first hand how that country's extensive system of technical and vocational training works.

His plan calls for free county college tuition for both high school graduates and adults who want to return to school for a two-year degree.

Murphy said New Jersey's $200 million free county college tuition plan could be phased in over several years.

"This won't be as costly as many critics might have you believe," Murphy said in September.

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2) The county colleges are on board.

The heads of New Jersey's 19 county colleges are supportive of the free county college plan, which could dramatically increase enrollment, said Nespoli, head of the county college association.

Under the preliminary plan, New Jersey's free county college program would be a so-called "last dollar" scholarship open to all of the state's high school graduates, no matter what their grade point average, Nespoli said.

That means students would still apply for financial aid. If they qualify for Pell Grants, New Jersey Tuition Aid Grants or other financial aid programs, that money would be applied to their tuition if they attend their county's two-year college.

Then, the free county college program would cover only the "last dollars" of the students' remaining county college tuition and fee bills.

Students would still have to pay for their own books, transportation and other college costs. They would also have to pay for their own tuition if they transfer to one of the state's four-year colleges to complete a bachelor's degree after attending county college.

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3) Other states are doing it.

Tennessee, Oregon, and Minnesota all have versions of free county college tuition, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

New York also recently started its Excelsior Scholarship program that offers free tuition at the state's two-year and four-year public colleges for families that make less than $110,000 a year.

New Jersey might be able to model its free county college program after the successful Tennessee Promise program that offers free tuition to all high school graduates using state lottery money and other state funds, New Jersey officials said.

Tennessee's Republican governor recently signed a bill to expand the program to also offer free county college tuition to a limited number of residents over age 24. Murphy has suggested New Jersey could offer the same program for residents who want to return to county college.

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4) New Jersey already has NJ STARS -- a successful, smaller version of free county college tuition.

New Jersey has experience running a free county college program.

NJ STARS, or the New Jersey Student Tuition Assistance Reward Scholarship, was started in 2004 by Gov. James E. McGreevey in reaction to the rapidly rising tuition at the state's colleges. The program offered free county college tuition to New Jerey students who graduated in the top 20 percent of their high school class.

The scholarship was popular because it was one of the only financial aid programs offered to middle-class and wealthier families in New Jersey. In 2006, the NJ STARS II program was added to give additional scholarship money to students to transfer to four-year colleges after finishing their two years at county college.

State budget problems forced NJ STARS to scale back so only students in the top 15 percent of their graduating classes were eligible. But, the program remains popular with lawmakers and students.

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5) New Jersey's county colleges have room for more students.

If county college tuition was free, could New Jersey's two-year colleges handle a surge in enrollment?

Yes, county college officials say. New Jersey's 19 county colleges enrolled about 150,500 full- and part-time undergraduate students last year. That is 30,000 less students than in 2010.

Unlike four-year colleges, county colleges are designed to be able to easily expand and contract, school officials said. Because they have no dorms and most professors are adjuncts hired on a per-class basis, it is easy to add classes quickly if enrollment climbs.

However, there is one big reason free county college might not be coming to New Jersey:

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1) Money.

When Murphy first introduced the idea of free county college tuition in New Jersey, he said the plan would cost the state $400 million.

He later reduced his estimate to $200 million, citing a study by the non-partisan Campaign for Free College Tuition that estimates New Jersey would give up $197.5 million in tuition revenue if it made its two-year colleges free.

Murphy said the money could come from several sources, including his plan to raise taxes on the wealthy and generate tax revenue by legalizing recreational marijuana.

But, it remains to be seen whether the state Legislature will go along with his plans. It is also unclear whether there will be money left over for county colleges if Murphy follows through on other campaign promises -- including increased spending for K-12 schools, affordable housing, .

Some Democrats in the state Legislature already sounded skeptical there would be enough cash for all of Murphy's priorities.

"We're not going to be able to raise enough in taxes in the first year, two years, three years, to provide free community college and everything else," state Sen. Loretta Weinberg, D-Bergen, said the day after Murphy's election. "All of these things are priorities, let's call them goals, to move forward."

During the campaign, Repubicans warned there was no such thing as free county college for taxpayers.

"There is no such thing as a free lunch, and all of the 'free' stuff Phil Murphy is promising - government-run healthcare, free college - will have to be paid for by New Jersey taxpayers, who will have to work harder and longer to pay for all of the higher taxes Phil Murphy has promised to increase on everyone," Ricky Diaz, Guadagno's spokesman, said shortly after Murphy's plan was introduced.

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Students wait to receive their degrees at Essex County College's 2017 graduation. (NJ Advance Media for NJ.com file photo)

Read more about N.J. college tuition:

7 ways to go to college tuition-free in N.J.

Tuition at N.J.'s 27 four-year colleges ranked from least to most expensive

Here's how N.J. college students can save $21K in tuition

Kelly Heyboer may be reached at kheyboer@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @KellyHeyboer.