Ask a millennial to name a state that exemplifies the typical Republican voter and there’s a strong likelihood they’ll tell you Texas. Now a recent spate of House Republican resignations and optimistic polling has the Democratic Party ready for an all-out electoral assault.

Last night’s Democratic debate in Houston is no coincidence. The decision to spotlight Texas marks a belated acknowledgement by party elites that Texas is not only competitive, but potentially winnable. For the first time in memory, the presidential debate stage featured not just one but two prominent Democrats who call Texas home.

How did we get here?

For millennial voters, Texas gained its ruby-red reputation after elevating native son and previous youth movement bête-noir George W Bush to the White House. Bush’s mannerisms and eccentricities became the running Texan stereotype: gun-toting, hyper-religious, contemptuous of the educated and unquestioningly conservative. The state hadn’t voted for a Democratic president since 1976 – before most millennials were born. Texas was a lost cause.

Rumors of Texas’s death as a purple state turned out to be greatly exaggerated. While predominantly white Democratic elites wrote off Texan congressional districts and Senate seats as wastes of party money, grassroots Latinx and LGBTQ coalitions sprang into action in cities like Austin, El Paso and San Antonio. Each electoral cycle narrowed the voter gap between complacent Republicans and upstart, progressive Democrats.

In 2013, freshman Congressman Joaquin Castro urged Democrats to rethink their Texas playbook. The voters were there, Castro insisted. Adapting the message wouldn’t be enough; Democrats would need better messengers. Six years later, Castro’s brother Julian took the presidential debate stage to introduce Blue Texas to a new generation of voters.

The most successful of these new political messengers shatter the gloomy stereotypes about Texas Democrats. Earlier this week, presidential contender Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros in a Justice Democrats-backed primary of pro-NRA Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar. Cisneros is a strong voice for gun safety, the Green New Deal and a host of progressive ideas once considered nonstarters in Texas.

Warren’s endorsement comes with clout: a recent Texas Tribune poll shows Warren in second place there, ahead of Texan Beto O’Rourke. O’Rourke nearly unseated Republican Senator Ted Cruz last cycle, a feat impressive enough to make O’Rourke a brief national celebrity.

Democrats aren’t just mobilizing for federal races. The Texas Democratic Party shocked election analysts by flipping a dozen seats in the state House of Representatives in 2018. That leaves Democrats only nine seats short of the majority – an unheard-of prospect even five years ago. Texas state legislative races have become so competitive for Democrats that national money, long a fantasy for the Texas Democrats, is finally flowing into party coffers.

Republicans are so rattled that Texans have coined a term for the flood of retirements and resignations: “Texodus.” Five Republican congressman have announced they will not seek re-election. Congressman Will Hurd, once considered a Republican rising star, bowed out of the race two weeks ago. Democrats are already fielding candidates that look more like Cisneros and O’Rourke than the Blue Dog Democrats of old.

The wilting of Republican prospects across Texas can be attributed in large part to the ideologically directionless chaos sown by President Donald Trump. Trump’s “Zero Tolerance” immigration policy and family separation scandal have created a human rights disaster on America’s southern border, and many Texans are disgusted by the mounting human cost. Latinx communities that once aligned with Republicans on religious issues have now mobilized in defense of their loved ones and communities. These voters have seen the inhumanity of Donald Trump’s immigration disaster. They want it to end.

The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Show all 25 1 /25 The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Bernie Sanders The Vermont senator has launched a second bid for president after losing out to Hilary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primaries. He is running on a similar platform of democratic socialist reform Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Joe Biden The former vice president recently faced scrutiny for inappropriate touching of women, but was thought to deal with the criticism well and has since maintained a front runner status in national polling EPA The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Elizabeth Warren The Massachusetts senator is a progressive Democrat, and a major supporter of regulating Wall Street Reuters The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is a Minnesota senator who earned praise for her contribution to the Brett Kavanaugh hearings Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Michael Bloomberg Michael Bloomberg, a late addition to the 2020 race, announced his candidacy after months of speculation in November. He has launched a massive ad-buying campaign and issued an apology for the controversial "stop and frisk" programme that adversely impacted minority communities in New York City when he was mayor Getty Images The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Tulsi Gabbard The Hawaii congresswoman announced her candidacy in January, but has faced tough questions on her past comments on LGBT+ rights and her stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Pete Buttigieg The centrist Indiana mayor and war veteran would be the first openly LGBT+ president in American history Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Deval Patrick The former Massachusetts governor launched a late 2020 candidacy and received very little reception. With just a few short months until the first voters flock to the polls, the former governor is running as a centrist and believes he can unite the party's various voting blocs AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Beto O'Rourke The former Texas congressman formally launched his bid for the presidency in March. He ran on a progressive platform, stating that the US is driven by "gross differences in opportunity and outcome" AP The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kamala Harris The former California attorney general was introduced to the national stage during Jeff Sessions’ testimony. She has endorsed Medicare-for-all and proposed a major tax-credit for the middle class AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Bill De Blasio The New York mayor announced his bid on 16 May 2019. He emerged in 2013 as a leading voice in the left wing of his party but struggled to build a national profile and has suffered a number of political setbacks in his time as mayor AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Steve Bullock The Montana governor announced his bid on 14 May. He stated "We need to defeat Donald Trump in 2020 and defeat the corrupt system that lets campaign money drown out the people's voice, so we can finally make good on the promise of a fair shot for everyone." He also highlighted the fact that he won the governor's seat in a red [Republican] state Reuters The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Cory Booker The New Jersey Senator has focused on restoring kindness and civility in American politics throughout his campaign, though he has failed to secure the same level of support and fundraising as several other senators running for the White House in 2020 Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Wayne Messam Mayor of the city of Miramar in the Miami metropolitan area, Wayne Messam said he intended to run on a progressive platform against the "broken" federal government. He favours gun regulations and was a signatory to a letter from some 400 mayors condemning President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord Vice News The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kirsten Gillibrand The New York Senator formally announced her presidential bid in January, saying that “healthcare should be a right, not a privilege” Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Delaney The Maryland congressman was the first to launch his bid for presidency, making the announcement in 2017 AP The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Andrew Yang The entrepreneur announced his presidential candidacy by pledging that he would introduce a universal basic income of $1,000 a month to every American over the age of 18 Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Julian Castro The former San Antonio mayor announced his candidacy in January and said that his running has a “special meaning” for the Latino community in the US Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Marianne Williamson The author and spiritual adviser has announced her intention to run for president. She had previously run for congress as an independent in 2014 but was unsuccessful Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Eric Swalwell One of the younger candidates, Swalwell has served on multiple committees in the House of Representatives. He intended to make gun control central to his campaign but dropped out after his team said it was clear there was no path to victory Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Seth Moulton A Massachusetts congressman, Moulton is a former US soldier who is best known for trying to stop Nancy Pelosi from becoming speaker of the house. He dropped out of the race after not polling well in key states Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Jay Inslee Inslee has been governor of Washington since 2013. His bid was centred around climate change AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Hickenlooper The former governor of Colorado aimed to sell himself as an effective leader who was open to compromise, but failed to make a splash on the national stage Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tim Ryan Ohio representative Tim Ryan ran on a campaign that hinged on his working class roots, though his messaging did not appear to resonate with voters Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tom Steyer Democratic presidential hopeful billionaire and philanthropist Tom Steyer is a longtime Democratic donor AFP/Getty

Trump’s racist words and otherizing of Hispanic Americans is only part of the equation. Republicans are also losing traditionally conservative, suburban whites. Many share the national disgust at Trump’s immigration policies, but a larger number are recent arrivals drawn from other states by Texas’s growing job market. These voters are shaking up the electoral math and driving suburban Republicans to retire instead of facing an uphill political fight.

Donald Trump is still solidly ahead of his Democratic competitors in Texas, but voters are poised to send a stinging rebuke to state Republicans and further reduce Republican hold on the US House of Representatives. The long-held dream of turning Texas into a Democratic stronghold still lingers in the future, but for the first time younger Democrats are optimistic enough to take to the field in force.

When Texas finally does flip, one thing is certain: the coalition that carries the day won’t look anything like the stereotypes. Democrats have the opportunity to write a new – and brighter – chapter.