But in part it’s because the Senate was always a much harder fight. There are far more Democrats on the ballot this year than Republicans, a function of the party’s strong performance in 2012. Those incumbents are now in a somewhat precarious position. FiveThirtyEight estimates there’s a 78 percent chance the Democrats retake the House, but only a 20 percent chance they take the Senate.

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It can be tricky to track the state of play in each of those races. So we made this tool, which pulls data from RealClearPolitics' polling data multiple times a day showing who’s leading or trailing in most of the contested Senate races. What’s presented is the difference in RCP’s polling average, the most recent average of polls tracked by RCP. The more blue a state, the more likely a Democratic victory. The more red, the better the Republican is doing. The border of each state matches the party of the sitting senator.

SENATE GOVERNORS AK ME WI VT NH WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC OK LA MS AL GA HI TX FL

Notice that each state’s polling includes a mention of how recently the average was calculated. In some states, there isn’t much polling, and the poll averages are therefore somewhat older. It’s an important consideration. At the bottom is an overview of the state of play in the Senate races at this moment.

We’ve also included gubernatorial races tracked by RCP. It offers a fascinating contrast: There are a slew of governor’s seats in which Republicans hold substantial leads. There are few such races on the Senate side — again in part because of how many of the seats that are up are currently held by Democrats.

As of writing, there are nine contests in which the margin between the candidates is five points or less. One is tied. Democrats lead in five. Democrats need to win those and two of the other close contests to retake the Senate.