Harry Reid takes the lead over Sharron Angle in Nevada





Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid leads Sharron Angle in the latest poll in Nevada. Photo by Kevin Lamarque/REUTERS

1. A new independent poll shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) opening up a seven-point edge over former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle -- by far the most encouraging survey of this election cycle for the top ranking Senate Democrat.

Reid takes 44 percent to Angle's 37 percent in the poll, which was conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal by Mason Dixon Polling & Research.

Since Angle emerged as the surprise winner of the Silver State's June 8 primary, Reid has engaged in a steady -- and clearly effective -- television campaign to define the former state legislator as outside of the Nevada political mainstream. He has run ads hitting Angle for past comments about abolishing Social Security and for her alleged opposition to saving a major construction project in downtown Vegas.

Reid's onslaught has worked. In the Review Journal poll, Angle's unfavorable rating went from 25 percent in June to 43 percent now. Her favorable score fell from 38 percent to 33 percent.

While the poll affirms what Republicans have been saying privately -- that Angle has not done well for herself since the primary -- there remain a few bright spots for the GOP.

First, Reid is universally known in the state and still only at 44 percent in a head to head matchup with Angle. Also, just 37 percent view him favorably while 46 percent see him in an unfavorable light. Those numbers mean that lots and lots of voters are not sold on him and won't likely get sold on him. But do they go to Angle or to some other option -- like "none of the above" -- on the November ballot?

Second, Reid has, to date, used his vast financial edge to define Angle on television. Having raised an amazing $2.6 million between April 1 and June 30 -- $2.3 million of which came in after she won the primary -- Angle will be able to fight the Majority Leader on more equal footing now.

Still, the poll shows Angle has incurred real political damage in the early days of the general election.

2. West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will announce at 2 p.m. today who he will appoint to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.).

Although Manchin himself has not said publicly who he is leaning toward appointing, speculation has settled on several candidates. Among the top names floated (all Democrats) are former Gov. Gaston Caperton, former Byrd aide Anne Barth, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2008, and former Manchin general counsel Carte Goodwin. (Late word was that Goodwin was the frontrunner although Manchin has not shown his hand on which way he is leaning.)

West Virginia Democratic Party chairman Larry Puccio, who also served as Manchin's chief of staff, took himself out of the running yesterday.

Former Gov. Bob Wise (D), another potential pick, said yesterday: "I am exactly where I should be."

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said yesterday that the appointee will be sworn in at 2:15 p.m. on Tuesday, July 20, again giving Senate Democrats 59 votes.

Manchin is expected to announce his own run for the seat soon after appointing the interim senator. With a run by Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) appearing less and less likely -- she would have to give up her House seat -- it's uncertain who will emerge as Republicans' nominee in the special election.

That hasn't stopped the West Virginia Republican Party from slamming Manchin, however; the state GOP has taken out full-page newspaper ads linking Manchin to President Obama and Democratic leaders.

3. Colorado Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis clung to his political life Thursday, insisting that he will stay in the race amidst plagiarism revelations.

McInnis, a former congressman, said on his Facebook page that he's in it for the long haul. "I am in it to win it," McInnis wrote in what can only be taken as an unintentional reference to the slogan of then Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's unsuccessful 2008 presidential campaign. "We will continue to fight for Colorado's businesses and families and will not leave this race. Stay strong!"

At the same time, McInnis skipped a rally having to do with water issues, which happens to be the very same subject of some of the work he is accused of plagiarizing.

Also, the Republican Governors Association on Thursday denied reports that it is pulling out of the state in reaction to McInnis' problems. Republicans are in a tough spot because McInnis has an under-funded opponent in the Aug. 10 primary who may wind up being the nominee if McInnis is forced out.

RGA spokesman Tim Murtaugh said the committee is letting the state Republican Party sort things out and remains neutral in the primary between McInnis and businessman Dan Maes. He said the RGA hasn't pulled back any resources.

"We remain committed to that effort," Murtaugh said. "Anybody who says anything otherwise is peddling fiction."

Still, McInnis' campaign is flailing badly and predictions of its death are everywhere. The operative questions in Republican circles now seems to be whether another candidate can legally step in -- state Sen. Josh Penry anyone -- to keep the race competitive in the fall. Democrats have united behind Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

4. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Democrats with a wide lead in the race to succeed Gov. Jodi Rell (R), giving their party a shot at winning the governor's mansion for the first time in more than two decades.

The two Democratic contenders -- Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) and businessman Ned Lamont (D) - are ahead of all three Republican counterparts by double digits in the poll -- good news for national Democrats who have privately expressed concern about their prospects in the Nutmeg State.

In the Democratic primary, the poll showed Lamont, who was also Democrats' 2006 Senate nominee, leading Malloy 46 percent to 37 percent -- a margin roughly half the size that Lamont enjoyed in a June Q poll.

Foley, who has faced controversy recently following revelations over two past arrests, leads the Republican primary field with 48 percent to Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele's 13 percent and Oz Griebel's 7 percent. Forty-eight percent of likely Republican primary voters said that the arrests are a "private matter."

With the exception of Griebel, all of the major candidates have gone up with TV ads in recent days. Foley's highlights his "no nonsense" plan to "fix Connecticut"; Lamont's two ads focus on job creation and fighting special interests; and Fedele's commercial focuses on his bio. The primary is August 10.

5. If it's Friday, it's time for Fix chats -- times two!

First at 10:30 am, we'll unveil -- via web video -- who had the "Worst Week in Washington". (HINT: It was a near-unanimous pick this week.)

Then, at 11 a.m., we'll be back with our hour-long Live Fix chat where we field your questions about anything and everything -- literally.

Come in and stay for a while. Let's play two!



With Felicia Sonmez and Aaron Blake