Mitch Sherman ESPN Staff Writer 10 Minute Read

Palmer: Notre Dame's resume is too strong to miss playoff Jesse Palmer explains why Notre Dame doesn't need to go undefeated to make the College Football Playoff.

A month ago, in the first unveiling this season of the Eliminator, 46 teams remained in the mix for the College Football Playoff, including 21 of the unbeaten variety. Since then, we've seen a week-by-week shredding of contenders. Now, six days before the selection committee weighs in for the first time, 15 teams are left to vie for the coveted spots in the Dec. 29 semifinal games in north Texas and south Florida.

You'll notice American Conference unbeatens UCF and USF were discarded this year, even ahead of the initial rankings release on Tuesday. Plain and simple, they're not getting in. Not this year and likely not ever in a four-team configuration.

The SEC leads the way with six teams, highlighted, of course, by Alabama, which has qualified for every CFP.

Just one team apiece represents the ACC and Pac-12. Clemson, with a 57.9 percent chance to win out, appears in great shape to qualify for a fourth straight playoff, while Washington State holds its conference flag as it sits near the bottom of this list.

Speaking of the bottom, Texas A&M remains the only two-loss team to escape elimination. The road is long for the Aggies, and they need more help than seems reasonable. But if it can happen, we're not discounting it.

Others to just make the cut include one-loss Kentucky, Iowa and West Virginia.

The Mountaineers share with Ohio State and Texas the distinction of having endured the worst losses among the 15 contenders. What separates them from NC State, with its one loss to an opponent far superior to Iowa State, Purdue or Maryland?

Well, much like the committee, the Eliminator must draw a line somewhere. And while the NC State résumé compares well with that of a few of the contenders, its remaining chances to impress the committee do not.

Contenders are listed by record and in order of FPI rank.

Still in contention

Alabama Crimson Tide

Trending: EVEN

No team has ever finished 15-0. Alabama, through eight games, appears on track, sharing a level of play with a select few in college football history. The Tide have trailed for just three plays all season. QB extraordinaire Tua Tagovailoa still has not taken a fourth-quarter snap this season.

Clemson Tigers

Trending: UP

So much for the struggles with NC State. QB Trevor Lawrence deftly picked apart the Wolfpack, which tried too often to send blitzers at the true freshman. Among playoff contenders, the Tigers now face the easiest road to a spot in the semifinals, starting with a trip to Florida State this week.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Trending: EVEN

The Irish were off Saturday and sit in a spot similar to Clemson's: as big favorites to win every game left. Could Notre Dame still slip into the final four with a loss in its last five games? It might not be a good idea to find out.

Georgia Bulldogs

Trending: DOWN

Off a loss to LSU, uneasiness surrounds the Bulldogs, as Florida awaits in Jacksonville ahead of a trip to Kentucky. Talk has focused on the quarterbacks --- whether freshman Justin Fields deserves a shot to use his arm -- but what of that defense, first gouged by Mizzou for four rushing touchdowns, then by LSU for three scores and 275 yards on the ground?

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Michigan Wolverines

Trending: UP

That's seven straight wins to enter a bye before Penn State. The Wolverines mastered the formula for late-season Big Ten success on Saturday at Michigan State, rushing for 144 yards on 37 designed runs inside tackles as they held the Spartans to 15 yards on the ground.

Oklahoma Sooners

Trending: UP

Kyler Murray and the one-loss Sooners steered back on track with a rout of TCU, posting 536 yards as the quarterback threw four touchdowns to keep pace with the numbers of 2017 Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. The defense, under new direction, held the Horned Frogs to three points after a rough four-minute stretch in the second quarter.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Trending: DOWN

Sure, the Buckeyes probably still control their fate as a potential one-loss Big Ten champion. But when do the mounting losses by TCU and Penn State's sloppy play impact Ohio State? More pressing, OSU has allowed 35 plays of 25 or more yards in eight games. Dwayne Haskins, despite 73 pass attempts, completed just four balls thrown 15 yards or more downfield.

LSU Tigers

Trending: UP

They're a top-four team because of that smothering D, which forced four Mississippi State turnovers on Saturday -- as many as the Bulldogs had committed all season. All four were interceptions of Nick Fitzgerald, who enjoyed no success on downfield throws. Up next, that defense takes aim at Tagovailoa in the most appealing matchup anywhere this season.

Florida Gators

Trending: UP

Another idle Week 8 contender, the Gators, with five straight wins, can take a giant step toward the SEC East crown with a win over Georgia this week. Florida, without another league road game, ought to feel great about LSU's performance in the two weeks since the Tigers lost in Gainesville.

Kirk Ferentz and Iowa can still play spoilers in the Big Ten. Doug McSchooler/AP Photo

Iowa Hawkeyes

Trending: UP

Other than a Week 4 loss to Wisconsin, these Hawkeyes look a lot like the 2015 group that stayed perfect until December. Headed to Penn State after holding Maryland to 115 yards, Iowa remains a serious long shot to make the CFP but poses likely the greatest threat to spoil the Big Ten's shot at a bid in Indianapolis.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Trending: DOWN

After the four-turnover showing in a Week 6 win over Kansas, something didn't feel right about WVU as an unbeaten playoff front-runner. Well, Iowa State made that clear. The Mountaineers stay afloat because opportunities remain to beat Texas and Oklahoma.

Texas Longhorns

Trending: UP

As the dominoes fell nationally, the Longhorns advanced a notch or two by sitting out. How does the committee this week treat Texas, with its loss to Maryland, now floundering, and tight wins over Tulsa, K-State and Baylor? The Big 12 front-runner is concerned only with an arduous road over the next four weeks and the ailing shoulder of QB Sam Ehlinger.

Washington State Cougars

Trending: UP

Wow, what a Saturday, and congrats to the Cougars, the only Pac-12 team left with a shot at the CFP. But the league is likely going to be shut out of the semifinals again. Even if Wazzu runs the table, it figures to pay a high price for the September scheduling of Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington.

Kentucky Wildcats

Trending: EVEN

Style points matter little for an SEC title contender. That's a good thing because the Wildcats won ugly on Saturday, 14-7 at home over Vanderbilt. And yes, Kentucky remains in the mix, with a trip to Missouri before a Nov. 3 visit from Georgia that will likely settle the East division if both teams win this week.

Texas A&M Aggies

Trending: EVEN

What if the Aggies win out, LSU beats Alabama, then A&M beats the Tigers and finds a way into the SEC title game, in which they beat a one-loss Georgia or Florida? Even that might not earn a spot. But it could, which is reason enough to keep the Aggies alive with their losses to the two best teams nationally.

Better luck next season

Jarrett Stidham and Auburn lost three games in five weeks. AP Photo/Vasha Hunt

Auburn Tigers

The three losses in five weeks grew increasingly more troubling, capped by a Week 7 flop at home against Tennessee. The Tigers' first loss to the Vols since 1999 dashed a lot more than just playoff hopes on the Plains.

Colorado Buffaloes

Two weeks ago, the ESPN Playoff Predictor gave the Buffs absolutely no chance to make a CFP semifinal, even if it finished as the unbeaten Pac-12 champ. Crazy? Doesn't matter after CU lost to USC and Washington.

Michigan State Spartans

The Spartans held Northwestern to 8 rushing yards in Week 6 and still lost by 10 points. That's enough for removal from playoff consideration.

Miami Hurricanes

Coach Mark Richt gambled and lost in handing the offensive keys to freshman QB N'Kosi Perry. Veteran Malik Rosier is back behind the wheel, but it's too late after a three-point loss to Virginia delivered a big hit to Miami's hopes, even in the ACC Coastal.

NC State Wolfpack

One loss doesn't typically doom a Power 5 team. But NC State gets no opportunity to avenge the 41-7 defeat Saturday at Clemson. Even if the Wolfpack find a way into the ACC title game, they would be playing, at best, a two-loss foe.

Oregon Ducks

As unlikely as victory appeared in the closing seconds against Washington, it was even more improbable in Week 8 at Washington State, down 27-0 at halftime. Yet the Ducks made it interesting. No playoff this year, but the future looks strong.

Penn State Nittany Lions

FPI still loves the Lions, but the CFP committee will not look fondly on their inability to close at home in consecutive losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.

Stanford Cardinal

Similar to Penn State, coach David Shaw's club lost two straight to quality opponents. The Cardinal, though, were not competitive against Notre Dame and Utah as running back Bryce Love struggled to play through an ankle injury.

UCF Knights

Let's be real, despite a nation-leading 20 straight wins, it's not happening. The Knights play just one Power 5 opponent this season. Memphis, the team they beat 31-30 in Week 7, lost Saturday by 32 at Missouri. The list goes on. Take aim at another New Year's Six bowl.

South Florida Bulls

Same conference, same story. The Bulls actually boast two Power 5 wins, but neither will do a thing to impress the committee. A Nov. 23 home date with UCF looms again as massive, but USF might not escape unscathed from Houston this week.

Utah Utes

See the above explanations for Penn State and Stanford. For Utah, the double dose of disappointment came at the hands of Washington and Washington State in late September. Things look good in the Pac-12 South, though.

Virginia Tech Hokies

They remained in contention by a sheer thread a month ago, after the loss to Old Dominion, on the hope that an unbeaten run through the ACC could make amends. It won't matter now for the Hokies, who were routed at home by Notre Dame in Week 6.

Washington Huskies

Auburn's two October losses did no favors for the Huskies, but their fate was sealed with an OT loss at Oregon in Week 7, after UW missed a 37-yard field goal on the final play of regulation.

Wisconsin Badgers

Such disappointment. The playoff dream, which lived a year ago until the final minutes of the Big Ten title game against Ohio State, died in the second half two weeks ago on a long night at the Big House.

Others who won't make it

Eliminated after Week 8: Cincinnati Bearcats, Duke Blue Devils, North Texas Mean Green

Eliminated after Week 6: Boston College Eagles, California Golden Bears, Indiana Hoosiers, Maryland Terrapins, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Syracuse Orange

Eliminated after Week 5: Baylor Bears, Buffalo Bulls, Mississippi State Bulldogs, South Carolina Gamecocks, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Virginia Cavaliers

Eliminated after Week 4: Akron Zips, Arizona State Sun Devils, Illinois Fighting Illini, Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Louisville Cardinals, Marshall Thundering Herd, Pittsburgh Panthers, TCU Horned Frogs, Tennessee Volunteers, Vanderbilt Commodores, Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Eliminated after Week 3: Arkansas Razorbacks, Boise State Broncos, Eastern Michigan Eagles, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Southern Eagles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Houston Cougars, Iowa State Cyclones, Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Northwestern Wildcats, Ohio Bobcats, Oregon State Beavers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Toledo Rockets, UL Monroe Warhawks, USC Trojans

Eliminated after Week 2: Air Force Falcons, Arizona Wildcats, Arkansas State Red Wolves, Ball State Cardinals, BYU Cougars, Charlotte 49ers, Fresno State Bulldogs, Georgia State Panthers, Liberty Flames, Memphis Tigers, New Mexico Lobos, Nevada Wolf Pack, North Carolina Tar Heels, Purdue Boilermakers, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, UAB Blazers, UCLA Bruins

Eliminated after Week 1: Appalachian State Mountaineers, Army Knights, Bowling Green Falcons, Central Michigan Chippewas, Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, East Carolina Pirates, FAU Owls, FIU Golden Panthers, Kent State Golden Flashes, Miami RedHawks, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Navy Midshipmen, Northern Illinois Huskies, Old Dominion Monarchs, Rice Owls, San Diego State Aztecs, San Jose State Spartans, SMU Mustangs, South Alabama Jaguars, Temple Owls, Texas State Bobcats, Troy Trojans, Tulane Green Wave, UConn Huskies, UMass Minutemen, UNLV Rebels, Utah State Aggies, UTEP MIners, UTSA Roadrunners, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, Western Michigan Broncos, Wyoming Cowboys

Eliminated after Week Zero: Colorado State Rams, New Mexico State Aggies

Eliminated before Week Zero: Ole Miss Rebels