







window._taboola = window._taboola || []; _taboola.push({ mode: 'thumbnails-c', container: 'taboola-interstitial-gallery-thumbnails-5', placement: 'Interstitial Gallery Thumbnails 5', target_type: 'mix' });









window._taboola = window._taboola || []; _taboola.push({ mode: 'thumbnails-c', container: 'taboola-interstitial-gallery-thumbnails-10', placement: 'Interstitial Gallery Thumbnails 10', target_type: 'mix' });





window._taboola = window._taboola || []; _taboola.push({ mode: 'thumbnails-c', container: 'taboola-interstitial-gallery-thumbnails-12', placement: 'Interstitial Gallery Thumbnails 12', target_type: 'mix' });

















Photo: Special to the Chronicle Image 1 of / 13 Caption Close Image 2 of 13 Boats full of spectators and media encircle the Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Boats full of spectators and media encircle the Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Photo: The Chronicle Image 3 of 13 Peter Mel holds up his Jeff Clark surfboard trophy after winning Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Peter Mel holds up his Jeff Clark surfboard trophy after winning Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Photo: The Chronicle Image 4 of 13 Peter Mel drops in on a wave during the final heat of the Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Mel went on to win the contest. Peter Mel drops in on a wave during the final heat of the Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Mel went on to win the contest. Photo: The Chronicle Image 5 of 13 Image 6 of 13 HALF MOON BAY, CA - JANUARY 20: Peter Mel competes during the first heat of the Maverick's Invitational surf competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, California. Mel went on to win the event. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) less HALF MOON BAY, CA - JANUARY 20: Peter Mel competes during the first heat of the Maverick's Invitational surf competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, California. Mel went on to win the event. ... more Photo: Getty Images Image 7 of 13 Colin Dwyer competes during heat 4 of the Mavericks Invitational big wave surf contest in Half Moon Bay, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez) Colin Dwyer competes during heat 4 of the Mavericks Invitational big wave surf contest in Half Moon Bay, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez) Photo: Associated Press Image 8 of 13 Colin Dwyer drops into a wave during the 4th heat of Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Colin Dwyer drops into a wave during the 4th heat of Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Photo: The Chronicle Image 9 of 13 Colin Dwyer, Anthony Tashnick and Grant "Twiggy" Baker all get on the same wave at Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Colin Dwyer, Anthony Tashnick and Grant "Twiggy" Baker all get on the same wave at Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Photo: The Chronicle Image 10 of 13 Image 11 of 13 Tashnick tries to escape the white water of a big wave at Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Tashnick tries to escape the white water of a big wave at Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Photo: The Chronicle Image 12 of 13 Ryan Wormhoudt gets in a barrel during the final round of Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Ryan Wormhoudt gets in a barrel during the final round of Mavericks Surf Competition on January 20, 2013 in Half Moon Bay, Calif. Photo: The Chronicle Image 13 of 13 Mavericks surf contest could be held on Friday 1 / 13 Back to Gallery

Barring a dramatic change in the surf and weather forecasts, the Mavericks big-wave surfing contest will be held on Friday at the famed spot off Half Moon Bay.

Earlier today, meteorologist Mark Sponsler, the contest’s official surf forecaster, said “the strongest storm of the season” is heading toward the West Coast. “It developed on the dateline on Monday and quickly exploded, generating 60-knot west winds and seas in excess of 50 feet, aimed well at California and particularly at Mavericks.”

This is a northwest swell said to be similar to the one hitting Mavericks today, although it is expected to be larger. “We’re using this one as a model,” said contest director Jeff Clark, who will make the call after consulting with Sponsler and a number of elite surfers. “By all indications, we’ll see some really big waves on Friday, with good weather and offshore winds. We need to make sure of all that before we decide for sure.”

Clark has established 48-hour advance notice for the contest, so official word may not be issued until tomorrow, but Clark left open the possibility that a decision will be made tonight. “We want to avoid the situation last year, where we called the contest five days out and the surf wasn’t really consistent enough,” he said. “That was a wing-and-a-prayer kind of thing, because we were running out of days when we could hold it. At that time, we called it with the swell 2,500 miles out to sea. It will be around 1,500 miles this time. And it’s a bigger storm. It really looks like it’s going to hold together.”

I spoke this afternoon with Steve Dwyer, one of the greats of Northern California big-wave surfing and the father of Colin Dwyer, who makes his debut on the contest list this year. He was out in the Mavericks channel, talking via cell phone, and said there were “definitely some 20-footers (40-foot faces) coming through. Looks like most of the guys are already here. This is real Mavericks. And there’s been some carnage.”

One of the more severe wipeouts was suffered by San Francisco-based Alex Martins, for years one of Mavericks’ most talented surfers. “He went down hard, was held under a long time and was badly shaken,” said Dwyer. The lineup also included former contest winners Greg Long, Twiggy Baker and Peter Mel, all of whom flew in from Hawaii after surfing “Jaws” (Peahi) on Maui.

(See a separate piece on this blog for complete biographies of the contests and heat assignments)