

Opinium

By comparison TMay’ drop from a net minus 13% to minus 20%

One of the features of conventional British political analysis is that almost all the focus is on voting intention for an election that might not take place for another few years with hardly any attention being given to leader approval ratings.

This is so different from the US where leader ratings dominate the political polling narrative. I was quite impressed ahead of last November’s American mid-term elections how projections for seats in the House of Representatives were being drawn from the declining approval ratings of President Trump. They were right. Nobody ever tries that in the UK

We are not helped in UK because we get so very few regular leader ratings. The regular Ipsos MORI poll always includes satisfaction numbers in a form that has been asked since the 1970s. But that comes out barely once a month.

The one UK pollster that does regular leader approval ratings is Opinium which is generally putting out two surveys a month. The table above, prepared by David Cowling, shows what has happened during the past year during which, of course, Brexit has totally dominated British politics.

Looking at the table so there can only be one conclusion that the leader whose ratings have suffered the most is Jeremy Corbyn. From having relatively healthy numbers at the end of January last year that’s now got worse and worse as his net figures in recent months have regularly been behind Theresa May. Vince Cable ratings are very much affected by the number of don’t knows.

My conclusion is that there was an immediate General Election then it would not be as easier ride for Mr Corbyn to Number 10 than many seem to think.

All the changes of government have been predated by the opposition leader having substantially better ratings than the incumbent Prime Minister.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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