From the Financial Times:

Africa cannot count on a demographic dividend

Population growth will not necessarily translate into rising living standards

DAVID PILLING Add to myFT

David Pilling AUGUST 16, 2018

… If you asked people to identify the most important trends shaping the world, many would name climate change, the rise of China, the potential of artificial intelligence or the surge of nationalism. Few would mention the dramatic increase of the population in a continent that to many is an afterthought. …

The UN’s base case is that the number of Africans will double in 30 years to 2bn and at least double again, to 4bn, by the end of the century….

If, as seems equally plausible, they cannot, Africa could become a focus of instability and desperation. Food shortages could worsen, exacerbated by climate change. …

In African Exodus, Asfa-Wossen Asserate, an Ethiopian who has spent his adult life in Germany, says future waves of immigration to Europe could dwarf existing numbers. “Above all, it is a general lack of prospects that is driving Africans from their homes,” he writes.

Some argue that this is Africa’s demographic dividend. Just as Asia did before it, Africa will reap its rewards in terms of high growth and rising living standards. But this is to misunderstand what a demographic dividend is. If adding people were enough, then Africa would already be rich.

The true meaning of a demographic dividend is a drop in the dependency ratio, or a rise in the working-age population relative to young people and retirees. By this measure, Africa does not have a dividend at all. It has a deficit — one that is widening. In much of the world, the working age population (15-64) makes up 60-70 per cent of the total. In Africa, it makes up just 54 per cent.

The main reason is that fertility rates have not fallen as fast as in other regions. In 1960, women in most developing countries had more than six children each. This fell dramatically in subsequent decades. By the mid-1990s, the rate was 3 in Latin America and just 2.2 in east Asia. In Africa it remained stubbornly high, falling slightly to 5.9 by the mid-1990s and to 4.85 today.

The reasons are not obvious. One may be lack of access to contraception, used regularly by less than one in five African women.

The UN Development Programme says that, with an average age of 62, African presidents are out of touch with the policy needs of much younger populations.