Nine months ago, I wrote a Diary that stated Hillary Clinton will run and win the White House. I included polling data from 28 months before the 2008 Presidential Election to show that this time around it will be different.

This update will compare polling 19 months before the 2008 elections to polling 19 months before the 2016 election.

In May 2008, there were:

4 Democrats:

Hillary Clinton

Barack Obama

John Edwards

Bill Richardson

4 Republicans

John McCain

Rudy Giuliliani

Mitt Romney

Fred Thompson

In 2007, Senator Clinton was considered the front runner, but the polling showed that she had weakness within the Democratic party.

The important polling I want to highlight is between Barack Obama and John McCain.

19 months out (May 2007), I doubt most people thought Senator Obama would be the Democratic candidate. Yet there was polling between these two future adversaries.

Newsweek Poll (May 2-3 2007) Senator Obama 52% Senator McCain 39% +12

Diageo/Hotline Poll (May 16-20 2007) Senator Obama 42% Senator McCain 39% +03

Zogby International (May 17-20 2007) Senator Obama 46% Senator McCain 43% +03

Rasmussen Reports Poll (May 14-15 2007) Did not poll this matchup

Three of the main pollsters included the future yet unlikely matchup of Senator Obama and Senator McCain. All three of the results show the future President with a lead of 3 to 12 point and an average of 6 points.

Average Results: Senator Obama 46.7% Senator McCain 40.3% +6.3

19 months later - Actual Results: Senator Obama 53% Senator McCain 46% +7

In May of 2007, these polls (at least the average of 6.3%) turned out to be very close to the actual results (7%).

One more interesting item.

The Rasmussen Reports Poll of May 2007 did not poll this matchup, but it did poll Senator Obama vs Governor Romney.

May 14-15 2007: Senator Obama 49% Governor Romney 37% +12

2012 Actual Results: Senator Obama 51% Governor Romney 47% +04

The actual results 67 months later were much closer, probably due to name recognition and undecided voters braking for Governor Romney. However, the correct winner was indicated.

Two other pollsters had the Obama/Romney matchup in May 2007:

Newsweek (May 2-3 2007): Senator Obama 52% Governor Romney 39% +13

Zogby Int'l (May 17-20 2007): Senator Obama 52% Governor Romney 35% +17

2012 Actual Results: Senator Obama 51% Governor Romney 47% +04

Readers in my previous diary on this subject indicate that its too early to use polls as an indicator. This idea is supported by many political pundits. Yet isn't it interesting that years out, these polls do show a indication that the public has an early sense of who they like and that overall voting decisions are made early.

2016 Election

Now, lets look are current polling 19 months from the 2016 election.

First, let me say that the public is currently still very polarized. This suggests that there will be less movement in the next 19 months, than in the past.

I have more historical polling evidence (See link below) that support the predictability of these early polls.





The above polling data is for the US Presidential elections from 1960 thru 2004. There were 12 elections during this time. These polls were taken at least 19 months before each general election. The accompanying article shows that the data is not a good predictor of the actual results. But I believe that is because there are too many other variables involved in those 12 elections.

If I pull out the elections in which the sitting President was term limited, then there are only three elections that meet that criteria (1960, 1988 & 2000).

In 2 of the 3 cases, the polling leader won the election. They did not predict the margin but they did predict the winner.

The only error was the 1988 elections. It was the Gary Hart - Donna Rice issue that caused Senator Hart to withdrawn within 30 days of this 1987 polling (May 8, 1987). In April 1987, Senator Hart was leading Vice President Bush. Based on the other three early polling results (1960, 2000 & 2008), Senator Hart may have won. However, it was Micheal Dukakis who lost the election 53.4% to 45.7%.

In 1959 Dwight D. Eisenhower was term limited. His Vice President Richard Nixon ran against John F. Kennedy.

In Jan 1959 a Gallup Poll was Kennedy 57% Nixon 35% +22

Actual 1960 Vote - 21 months later: Kennedy 49.7% Nixon 49.6% +0.001

In 1988 the predicted Bush vs Hart election did not take place.

In 2000 Bill Clinton was term limited. His Vice President Al Gore ran against George W. Bush.

In March 1999 a Harris Poll was Bush 56% Gore 41% + 15

Actual 2000 Vote - 19 months later: Bush 47.9% Gore 48.4% +0.005

In summary, there are five cases from 1960 to 2008, in which a term limited President could not seek re-election. In one case, the predicted challenger 19 months out did not win the party's nomination (1988). In the other four cases, the Polling leader, who was from the other party won the election. 2016, will be the first case in which the current President's party nominee is leading in the polling.

This supports Hillary Clinton's decision to leave the Obama Administration before the second term began. This way she would not be perceived as Vice President type candidate and could distance herself from the President.

Its my opinion the following 2015 polling numbers, are going to be more accurate not less than the 2007 numbers. The increased name recognition is due to social media and the 24 hr news cycle. With today's technology, those most likely to vote are following the election earlier and are more knowledgeable.

In May 2015, candidates:

1 Democrat:

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

7 Republicans

Jeb Bush

Scott Walker

Marco Rubio

Rand Paul

Ted Cruz

Mike Huckabee

Ben Carson

Donald Trump

Chris Christe

There are and will be many others, but the current polling covers the list above.

Clinton vs:

Jeb Bush

Fox News 45/44 Jeb +1

Quinnipiac 47/37 Clinton +10

ABC/WP 47/44 Clinton +3

CNN/OR 51/43 Clinton +8

Average: 47/42 Clinton +5

Scott Walker

Fox News 46/40 Clinton +6

Quinnipiac 46/38 Clinton +8

CNN/OR 49/46 Clinton +3

Average: 47/41 Clinton +6

Marco Rubio

Fox News 47/43 Clinton +4

Quinnipiac 45/41 Clinton +4

CNN/OR 49/46 Clinton +3

Average: 47/43 Clinton +4

Rand Paul

Quinnipiac 48/47 Clinton +1

CNN/OR 46/42 Clinton +4

Average: 47/44.5 Clinton +2.5

Ted Cruz

Fox News 48/43 Clinton +5

Quinnipiac 48/37 Clinton +11

CNN/OR 52/43 Clinton +9

Average: 49/41 Clinton +8

Mike Huckabee

Fox News 47/44 Clinton +3

Quinnipiac 47/40 Clinton +7

Average: 47/42 Clinton +5

Chris Christie

Quinnipiac 46/37 Clinton +7

Ben Carson

No Polling in May 2015

Donald Trumpr

Quinnipiac 50/32 Clinton +18

All of the May 2015, show Secretary Clinton winning against all of the above candidates. Only one poll, Fox News, shows Jeb Bush winning by 1 point. However Marco Rubio and Ran Paul are the closest at 4 and 2.5 respectively.

Based on polling history 19 months out, its still Hillary Clinton's race to lose.