WCHA Quarterfinal Preview

by Christopher Boulay/CHN Writer (@chrismboulay)

The WCHA regular season concluded last weekend, with nine of the 10 teams still alive for the postseason when games began Friday evening. Due to Ferris State’s loss to Lake Superior State on Friday night, the Bulldogs were eliminated and gave Alabama-Huntsville the eighth seed. Most of the remaining seeds were determined by Saturday night’s results.

Minnesota State won its fourth regular-season title in the past five seasons, finishing 12 points ahead of second seed Northern Michigan. The Mavericks are currently fourth in the Pairwise, while Bowling Green is 17th and Lake State is 22nd. According to CHN’s Pairwise Probability Matrix, the Falcons have a 16-percent chance at an at-large bid, while the Lakers are more remote, at 0.2 percent. Northern Michigan can’t make the tournament as an at-large. So any chance of multiple NCAA tournament bids from the conference for the second-consecutive year likely come down to a deep run by either Bowling Green or Lake State, or a team other than Minnesota State winning the automatic bid.

No. 1 Minnesota State vs. No. 8 Alabama-Huntsville

Verizon Center, Mankato, Minn.

Records: Minnesota State (27-7-2, 22-5-1), Alabama-Huntsville (8-26-2, 8-18-2)

One of the most consistent and talented teams in the nation, Minnesota State is in the midst of a tear. Since the beginning of January, the Mavericks are 13-2-1, with two of those wins being defeats of their first round opponent Alabama-Huntsville. The two played on Feb. 1-2, with Minnesota State outscoring the Chargers 10-1.

Minnesota State is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but is looking for its first conference tournament victory since 2014-15. A strong run to an eventual WCHA Tournament crown would lock up a top seed in the NCAAs, providing a great opportunity for the team to win that elusive first national tournament game.

Huntsville made the conference tournament relatively comfortably, with Ferris unable to gain much ground down the stretch. It will likely depend on sophomore netminder Mark Sinclair to keep it in the series. Though he has just 1501 minutes this season, which is 28th in the country, his 784 saves put him at 18th nationally. However, to have any realistic chance in this series, the team will need to significantly improve on its 1.81 goals per game, third-worst in the nation. Maybe there is some hope in Minnesota State being complacent due to already having a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but it’s unlikely.

No. 2 Northern Michigan vs. No. 7 Alaska

Berry Events Center, Marquette, Mich.

Records: Northern Michigan (19-14-2, 18-8-2), Alaska (12-19-3, 12-14-2)

Last year’s WCHA Tournament runners-up had big hopes this year, but a disastrous non-conference campaign derailed Northern Michigan’s at-large chances. No matter, the Wildcats did what was necessary to take charge during the stretch run of the WCHA regular season. Since the beginning of February, they are 6-2-2, and it was enough to nab the second seed in the tournament.

"I don't know that it's more than any other pressure you feel normally,” Northern Michigan coach Grant Potulny said. “This year we're more prepared. Last year came at us so hot and heavy. Maybe we had a little easier road to finish where we did. Things seemed to break our way. This year we're more prepared for some of the adversity, more prepared from going deep in the playoffs and playing in the championship game (last year)."

Goaltender Atte Tolvanen recorded a school-record 13th-career shutout in the team’s regular season finale against rival Michigan Tech. Tolvanen has a .920 save percentage, and along with junior defenseman Philip Beaulieu, they lead the 14th-best defense in the country, allowing just 2.31 goals per game.

Alaska enters the first round of the WCHA Tournament fresh off its sweep of Alaska-Anchorage to take its 10th-consecutive Governor’s Cup. The final weekend capped off a strong second half for the Nanooks, as they posted an 8-6-1 record. However, against Northern Michigan’s stout defense, they will need to find a way to score. Only five players recorded more than 10 points in the regular season, and coach Erik Largen will need a big weekend from top scorers Steven Jandric, Kyler Hope and Tristan Thompson to give them a chance against the surging Wildcats.

No. 3 Bowling Green vs. No. 6 Michigan Tech

Slater Family Ice Arena, Bowling Green, Ohio

Records: Bowling Green (21-9-5, 16-8-4), Michigan Tech (14-18-4, 13-12-3)

Back in January, Bowling Green was in the enviable position of being a top-10 team and having an extremely favorable schedule to close out the year. It looked like a foregone conclusion that the team would lock up an at-large bid and make a serious push to take the WCHA regular season title from Minnesota State. However, an 8-6-2 finish and a failure to sweep any team during that stretch has the Falcons on the bubble entering the conference tournament. They must make a deep run if they are to make it back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1990, and they’re going to need a lot of help if they don’t lock up the autobid.

First up is a tough test against Michigan Tech, the winners of the last two WCHA Tournaments. The two teams split in mid-January at the MacInnes Student Ice Arena, but the Huskies have been reeling, as of late. Northern Michigan swept Tech during the season’s final week, ending the second half for coach Joe Shawhan’s team with a 4-11-3 mark.

Bowling Green forward Lukas Craggs will miss Game 1 due to suspension, which is a significant blow to the Falcons’ high-flying offense, and welcome news for Tech. This season, Craggs has a line of 13-10—23 and is much of the reason why coach Chris Bergeron’s team is 10th-highest scoring in the nation.

The Huskies will need two big nights from junior netminder Matt Jurusik to increase the chances of another tournament title defense.

No. 4 Lake Superior State vs. No. 5 Bemidji State

Taffy Abel Arena, Sault Ste. Marie, Mich.

Records: Lake State (21-11-2, 16-10-2), Bemidji State (15-15-6, 13-11-4)

What a year it has been for Lake Superior. In December, the team earned its first-ever Great Lakes Invitational win, and later locked up its first winning season since 2011-12. The Lakers now host an opening-round playoff series for the first time as members of the WCHA, with Bemidji State heading to the Soo this weekend.

The Lakers’ turnaround from last season is impressive. Offensively, they average 3.38 goals per game (7th nationally), a huge jump from last year’s 2.11 goals per game (58th nationally). This year, they are also 22nd in goals allowed, giving up merely 2.53 goals per game. One season ago, that figure was 3.36 per game (56th). The offense is anchored by Diego Cuglietta, Anthony Nellis and Max Humitz, who have 51 goals between them. On the other end of the ice, Lake State goaltender Nick Kossoff is someone to keep an eye on. The senior has a .913 save percentage, and a strong few performances from him could propel this team deep into the conference tournament.

Bemidji will have all it can handle on both sides of the puck. The Beavers were just 7-7-3 during the second-half of the year, but they did manage a split against the Lakers at Taffy Abel in late-January. Coach Tom Serratore’s team hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2009-10, and hasn’t won a WCHA Tournament since the team entered the league the following season. However, they should be a tough out, especially if sophomore goaltender Zach Driscoll can keep games close. He’ll have help in defense, as seniors Dillon Eichstadt and Justin Beaudry are talented players who have a knack for contributing on the offensive end, as well.

“Defense is the strength of our team. We’ve got an experienced defensive corps, we ride that,” Bemidji State coach Tom Serratore said. “These guys have played a lot of hockey games. We’ve leaned on those guys all year. (...) It doesn’t matter who we’re playing. We’re going to play the same way. You just have to make sure you don’t make a lot of mistakes this time of year.”

