Most federal elections are won and lost in Ontario and Quebec and that may be the case again this fall, but I’m keeping a closer eye on Atlantic Canada this time around and Canadian political observers should too.

Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island make up the smallest region in national polls, with just 32 seats up for grabs between them.

In 2015, there was one consistent data point across all polls, across all modes, across all models and aggregators, and that was the Atlantic region. The Liberals consistently held substantial leads in the Atlantic and, of course, won all 32 seats in that year’s election. There were a handful of close races, but there were no surprises.

This time, though, it appears the Atlantic region, closely followed by B.C., is where we can expect the most volatility, and where the outcome of the election could be determined.

To understand why, we have to look back at 2015 and what the subsequent provincial elections in the region might tell us. At the time of the 2015 election, all four Atlantic provinces had Liberal majority governments, but this time we have just one: Nova Scotia. The Liberals also hold court over a somewhat unexpected minority government in Newfoundland and Labrador.

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In New Brunswick and P.E.I., there are Progressive Conservative minority governments. In New Brunswick, the PC government is largely being propped up by the right-wing People’s Alliance.

The provincial Green parties have made significant strides in New Brunswick, where they hold three seats, and in P.E.I. where they hold eight and are the Official Opposition, but have had only moderate success elsewhere. In Nova Scotia, they received just over 2 per cent of the vote in 2017, and in Newfoundland and Labrador there’s not even a party, though they started a drive to form one in July 2019.

The other factor pointing to the chance for greater volatility in the region is the rise of several “alliance” parties. The NL Alliance did not win a seat in the province’s 2019 election but did have some competitive seats, with a high water mark of over 18 per cent support in Baie Verte- Green Bay. The aforementioned New Brunswick People’s Alliance has three seats and holds the balance of power with the reigning PCs. The NDP holds just three seats in Newfoundland and Labrador, had only two second-place finishes in New Brunswick’s 2018 election and just a single second-place finish in P.E.I. in 2019, where they were shut out. The Green parties, and in some cases, the various iterations of alliance type parties, have supplanted the New Democrats as the third and fourth place parties in most of Atlantic Canada.

A look at regional federal polls and models points to more volatility, with seat projections ranging from a low of 17 for the Liberals across the region, a net loss of 15, to a high of 30, a net loss of just 2. If we use some regional numbers alone and not the averages like most models, that range gets even wider. With the Liberals holding mostly stable leads in most polls and averages for Quebec and Ontario, Atlantic Canada could play a very pivotal role in determining the outcome of this election.

Our own polling points to leads that would yield 80-90 seats for the Liberals in Ontario currently, and 55-60 seats in Quebec, for a combined 135-150 range, which has remained largely stable throughout the summer. If the Liberals hold closer to 30 of the 32 seats in Atlantic Canada, a Liberal government is inevitable before we count any seats west of the Ontario/Manitoba border. However, if the governing Liberals only hold 17 or fewer seats, and under-perform slightly in Ontario and Quebec, we could be in for a late night on Oct. 21.

I’ll be watching a number of ridings across the region closely, especially those where incumbents are not seeking re-election. In Newfoundland and Labrador, all the current MPs are returning but two of the four provincial seats in Labrador fell to the NDP and PCs in the 2019 election, pointing to a possible close race in at least one riding (all of Labrador is contained in one federal riding). The same goes for P.E.I., where all four Liberal MPs are running again. But here I would watch for possible close races due to Green Party splits, though local candidates matter a lot in the small province, so it could be hard to unseat these incumbents.

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The really interesting races will be in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, however. In Nova Scotia, I’d expect Cape Breton-Canso, Cumberland-Colchester, Kings-Hants, Sydney-Victoria and West Nova to be competitive. In New Brunswick, there is just a single Liberal incumbent not re-offering (in Tobique-Mactaquac) but other seats like Fredericton could be competitive as well.

As I wrote a few days ago, there are a lot of moving parts and factors to consider in getting a clear picture of this election. Ontario and Quebec may yet see fluctuations that refocus my attention, but for now I’m looking at the Atlantic region and B.C. as the top two regions to watch, and so should you.

Quito Maggi is the president and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

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