Saying that the race consists of “Gwen and the men,” Gwen Graham has made abortion rights and support of the #MeToo movement central to her campaign. | AP Photo Governor's race could pit Trump surrogate vs. #MeToo supporter, poll shows

Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Gwen Graham have solid leads in their party’s respective primaries for governor, according to a new poll that foreshadows a general election pitting the candidate of President Donald Trump against the candidate of women’s issues.

DeSantis, a two-term member of Congress, has had a meteoric rise in the GOP primary, pulling to a 41-29 percent lead over Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, thanks in large part to Trump’s support, the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey showed. Trump will campaign for DeSantis on Tuesday in Tampa, the center of the state’s largest media market.


Graham, a former member of Congress, has 27 percent support in her primary against four men and leads the second-place Democrat, former Miami Beach mayor Philip Levine, by 9 percentage points, according to the survey. Saying that the race consists of “Gwen and the men,” Graham has made abortion rights and support of the #MeToo movement central to her campaign.

“If this is the way the general turns out, this will be a race that’s all about the national dynamic for Democrats to motivate the women’s vote against Trump because of his positions and what he has said,” Brad Coker, Mason-Dixon pollster, told POLITICO.

“Having a woman candidate face off against Trump’s guy is the beating heart of the type of campaigns that Democrats are counting on,” Coker said.

While there’s still time for anything to happen ahead of the Aug. 28 primary, the Republican race has been more stable than the Democratic contest. DeSantis has steadily picked up support that finally reached a tipping point when Trump endorsed him last month. For the primary match-ups, Coker surveyed 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans. The poll has an error margin of 4.5 percentage points.

Because the races still are fluid and have so many candidates, Coker didn’t survey general election head-to-head match-ups. Instead, he polled each candidate’s favorability ratings.

And right now Graham looks like a stronger contender heading into a general election, Coker said.

She is the best-known and best-liked candidate in the race, with 35 percent having a favorable impression of her while only 5 percent have a negative view of her, making her net favorable rating 30 percent.

DeSantis’ net favorable rating is 11 percent, with 32 percent viewing him favorably but 21 percent unfavorably. Putnam’s net favorable rating is 10 percent, a sign that the $20 million ad campaign run on his behalf and the additional $4.8 million in outside spending trained on DeSantis have had little effect.

The numbers stand out even more because Putnam has been elected statewide twice and has continually held various elected offices in the state for 21 years. DeSantis’ camp has spent $9.7 million on TV, less than half of what Putnam’s team has spent on air, plus an additional $399,000 attacking Putnam.

The spending has been far bigger on the Democratic side because of the presence of Levine, a multimillionaire, and Jeff Greene, a billionaire who quickly climbed to third place with 12 percent on the strength of a $10.2 million TV ad campaign in about five weeks. Levine has spent about $15 million in eight months, and Graham about $4.7 million in about two months.

“Levine had been running about even with Graham until Greene jumped in. Both men have extremely similar profiles — politically experienced, successful business owners who are white, male, Jewish and from South Florida,” Coker said in a polling memo. “They each have tremendous personal wealth that gives them the ability to put a considerable amount of their own money into their campaigns. With this overlapping appeal, the two are drawing a combined 30% of voters — slightly more than Graham.”

Rounding out the Democratic primary, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the only non-millionaire and African-American in the race, polled at 10 percent. He just started an undefined “six-figure” TV ad buy. And Orlando businessman Chris King is at 7 percent and has spent $4.1 million on TV.

Coker said that Graham is “benefiting as the only female candidate, receiving the support of 30 percent of Democratic women” and that she also has highest name recognition —79 percent — and the highest favorable rating, 45 percent, among Democrats.

Unlike any of the Democrats in the race, Graham also can take a political punch. A so-called “dark money” group fueled with secret donations spent as much as $1.1 million attacking her as a phony progressive, and it made almost no difference, Coker said.

“Graham’s numbers have only gone up. She’s finally got her act together,” Coker said. “If she gets passed the primary and gets to the general election, she’ll be tough. She has the highest favorable and the lowest negatives. She is set up pretty well in the general.”

Read the poll's details here.