This week Boeing made a public splash by debuting a new blue spacesuit for astronauts to wear aboard its Starliner spacecraft. What the company did not dwell on as it rolled out “Boeing Blue,” however, was when the lighter, more modern-looking flight suits might be put into action with crewed flights into orbit.

That is because much work remains to integrate all of Starliner’s various systems, including qualifying them for flight, ensuring their compatibility, and writing and testing software that will make for smooth flying. And Boeing is not alone; its “commercial crew” competitor SpaceX also faces similar technical hurdles with the Dragon V2 spacecraft and the Falcon 9 rocket that will launch it into space.

Boeing has set a “no earlier than” date of August 2018 for its first crewed test flight, and SpaceX has targeted May 2018. But those dates seem optimistic. Ars spoke to a handful of sources familiar with the commercial crew program this week, and all expressed pessimism about the public timelines the companies have for reaching the launch pad. According to this unofficial analysis, even a single crewed test flight in 2018 by either company now appears unlikely, as teams from both Boeing and SpaceX continue to work through significant technical issues.

Space really is hard

There is an old cliché in the aerospace industry that is nonetheless entirely true—space is hard. Only Russia, the United States, and more recently China have ever launched humans into orbit. Now two private companies, funded by NASA, are seeking to do the same. That no one else has yet done this speaks to the challenge.

In the early part of this decade, a skeptical Congress hindered the commercial crew program by under-funding it, which caused initial delays from 2015 to 2017. Last year, for the first time, Congress more or less provided every penny NASA requested for its contracts with Boeing and SpaceX. In September, NASA Inspector General Paul Martin reported that delays beyond 2017 were largely due to technical issues. NASA, too, bore some of the blame for its lumbering evaluation and review processes as Boeing and SpaceX developed their spacecraft, Martin said.

NASA, of course, desperately wants the private companies to succeed. Since the Space Shuttle’s retirement in 2011, the space agency has relied on Russia and its aging Soyuz family of rockets and spacecraft to transport its astronauts to the International Space Station. And in the meantime, Congress has groused about paying an increasingly steep price for Soyuz “seats.”

NASA currently has contracts with Russia through 2018 to get its astronauts to the station. However, a delay of test flights into 2019 would necessarily push the first “operational” commercial crew flights into spring or summer of 2019 at a minimum. So, earlier this month, NASA revealed a clever plan that would allow it to procure additional Soyuz seats for 2019 while also reducing the threat of political blowback.

Officials within the ISS program, based in Houston, helped broker a deal for Boeing to acquire the “rights” to sell three Soyuz seats in 2019. Boeing received these rights from Russia's Energia as compensation for the settlement of a lawsuit involving the Sea Launch joint venture. In essence, then, when NASA tells the White House and Congress it needs to buy additional seats for 2019 due to commercial crew delays, it will be asking for money to buy them from Boeing—an American company—rather than Russia.

Crew assignments

NASA has therefore bought some more time for its commercial crew partners. As we get deeper into 2017, there are some clues that can help us track whether Boeing and SpaceX are making good progress. Foremost is the actual assignment of crews to the first missions.

The space agency has previously designated four veterans as its commercial crew astronauts—Bob Behnken, Sunita Williams, Doug Hurley, and Eric Boe—who have since been familiarizing themselves with both new vehicles. These four astronauts are unlikely to be assigned to Boeing or SpaceX until such time that crews are formally announced, not only for the initial two-person test flights, but also for the subsequent operational flights. So there would potentially be two two-person crews named (one for each Boeing and SpaceX), as well as two larger crews, which would include astronauts flying to the station for a regular, multi-month increment.

The timing of these announcements is critical, as they would have to occur at least 18 months before the operational flights begin. This would allow the astronauts flying to the station for long-duration missions time to prepare for all their work aboard the ISS. Ars understands the naming of these crews won’t occur before at least June or July of this year—probably later.

Rocket concerns

Both companies are having trouble with not only their spacecraft, but their rockets as well. The Starliner will launch on the highly reliable Atlas V rocket, but wind-tunnel tests have shown some problems with aeroacoustic issues when the Starliner is stacked atop the Atlas V during launch. Boeing may need to perform additional tests this year to demonstrate that it has moved beyond these issues.

For SpaceX, it will be critical to watch the company’s development of its Falcon 9 rocket. With two failures in 18 months, the company needs to prove to NASA that its booster is safe. The issue is complicated by the fact that SpaceX continues to work toward a “final” version of its Falcon 9 rocket—Block 5—which founder and Chief Executive Elon Musk said will fly by the end of this year. The Block 5 variant of the Falcon 9 is being designed for optimal safety and easier return for potential reuse. It will also be the variant upon which the crewed Dragon spacecraft ultimately flies.

NASA will want to see multiple flights of this Block 5 version before it allows astronauts on top of it. Among those flights will be an uncrewed test flight of the Dragon V2 spacecraft, which will likely dock with the space station. As part of its milestones for Dragon V2, SpaceX nominally plans to conduct this uncrewed test flight in late 2017.

However, because it now seems unlikely that the Block 5 version of the Falcon 9 will make its maiden flight before late this year, the Dragon V2 test flight will almost certainly slip into 2018. How much it is delayed into 2018 should provide some clues as to how overly optimistic the rest of SpaceX’s commercial crew targets remain.