President-elect plans a bonfire of Obama policies but fierce Republican opposition to Cuba regime is countered by appetite for business opportunities

Trump unlikely to reinstate embargo after death of Fidel Castro, analysts say

Trump unlikely to reinstate embargo after death of Fidel Castro, analysts say

With the death of Fidel Castro, one bitter sceptic of the US-Cuban thaw has left the scene just as another, Donald Trump, is about to take office. The fate of the policy is left hanging in the balance.



During the fight for presidential votes in Florida, home to the Cuban exile community, Trump and running mate Mike Pence promised to reverse the executive orders that relaxed the half-century US embargo on the island.

Trump and Obama offer divergent responses to death of Fidel Castro Read more

However, although both men marked Castro’s death by denouncing his human rights record and calling for an end to political repression, they did not repeat the call to reinstate sanctions.

Amid a bonfire of Obama policies Trump has promised on arrival in office in January, the opening to Cuba is unlikely to be thrown on the flames any time soon, foreign policy analysts said.

There was no mistaking the difference in tone between Obama and Trump’s reactions to Castro’s demise. The president’s statement omitted any hint of criticism of the dictator’s abuses, most likely reflecting a desire to defend the president’s dramatic decision to end the embargo and visit Havana in March this year, as part of his foreign policy legacy.

The shift in course started with a surprise simultaneous announcement in December 2014 by Obama and Raúl Castro, Fidel’s younger brother and the current Cuban president. That was followed by a visit by John Kerry, the US secretary of state; Obama’s trip; the resumption of commercial flights and the symbolic lifting of restrictions on Cuban rum and cigars.

However, many restrictions remain in place and can only be removed by Congress.

During the presidential campaign, Trump noted that the measures taken by Obama had been executive orders and threatened to reverse them.

Fidel’s death removes the symbol and the icon of all the rage, among Cuban Americans, that has driven US policy Christopher Sabatini, Columbia University

As recently as 5 November, after campaigning in Little Havana, the heart of the Cuban American community in Miami, Pence tweeted that a new administration would “repeal Obama’s executive orders on Cuba and continue the embargo until there is real political & religious freedom”.

A further signal of a potential hardline policy on Havana was the hiring of a fierce supporter of the embargo, Mauricio Claver-Carone, as part of the Trump transition team.

However, on Saturday neither Pence nor Trump used the spotlight provided by Castro’s death to restate their threats

“Though the tragedies, deaths and pain caused by Fidel Castro cannot be erased, our administration will do all it can to ensure the Cuban people can finally begin their journey toward prosperity and liberty,” the Trump statement said, without saying what exactly the administration would do.

“He’s sending very strong signals that he’s going to take a hard line on Cuba but without giving specifics,” said Gregory Weeks, an expert on US-Cuban relations at the University of North Carolina in Charlotte.

“At the same time, he’s a businessman. He’s been interested in doing business in Cuba. There is not a whole lot of interest in rolling back Cuba policy. The business side of the Republican party is very much in favour of it.”

'The old man is dead': Fidel Castro's death sparks celebrations on streets of Miami Read more

In September, Newsweek alleged that Trump spent at least $68,000 in Cuba in 1998, in contravention of the embargo and while investigating potential business opportunities. The allegation did not noticeably damage Trump’s standing with anti-Castro factions of the Republican party, including Cuban Americans who celebrated on Saturday.

Weeks added: “The hardliners are a pretty small group. Of all the things he has prioritised, Cuba is not going to be very high.”

Christopher Sabatini, a lecturer in international relations at Columbia University, said: “Fidel’s death removes the symbol and the icon of all the rage, among Cuban Americans, that has driven US policy towards the island and for a lot of non-Cuban Americans, it just seems old.

“So I think the momentum that we were beginning to see for changes to Obama-era policy is going to fade.

“Between the range of economic interests that have a vested interest in the maintenance of these policies – whether airlines, Four Seasons, Sheraton, to a number of agriculture companies – and given the US Chamber of Commerce’s very firm commitment to the policy changes, and Donald Trump’s inherent transactional nature as a businessman, we are looking at status quo.”