HONG KONG -- As the 20th anniversary of the U.K.'s handover of Hong Kong to China approaches, concerns over the territory's political and economic freedoms have been surfacing, especially among the city's youth.

The Nikkei sat down with Rikkyo University professor Toru Kurata, a specialist in Hong Kong affairs, to talk about developments in Hong Kong and what the future might hold.

Q: How would you sum up the past two decades since Hong Kong's handover to China?

Rikkyo University professor Toru Kurata (Photo by Yasuo Awai)

A: In essence, sinicization has progressed in Hong Kong. There is a saying going around,"No change over two decades," but in reality it should be more like, "A dramatic change over five decades."

Q: Do you think Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" governance has worked?

A: Leaders in Beijing have changed the definition of the "one country, two systems" framework, depending on changing political and economic climates. For Deng Xiaoping, who is thought to have created this policy, "two systems" meant capitalism and socialism. He did not give much thought to democracy, freedom and human rights.

The difference in economic strength between Hong Kong and mainland China was largest immediately before and after the handover. China strongly needed to make the most of Hong Kong's prosperity and came up with the idea of granting political autonomy to the territory.

Q: The situation has dramatically changed since Xi Jinping took over in 2012. Can you elaborate on this?

A: Owing in part to the democracy movement that spread through the Middle East in 2011, "national security" became a keyword. Beijing has started clamping down on Hong Kong's democracy movements in order to eliminate any threats to national unity. The effect of this combined with Hong Kong's chief executive Leung Chun-ying, who took a hard-line stance against democratic groups, was so significant that it led to the pro-democracy Umbrella Movement in 2014, which transformed into an independence movement last year.

Q: What do you think Carrie Lam-Cheng Yuet-Ngor will do after she becomes Hong Kong's chief executive on July 1?

A: Carrie Lam is a former government official who may focus on social welfare and education. Except for young radicals, a large majority of Hong Kong's citizens are exhausted with the incidents of the past five years. Increasingly, people just want things to settle down.

In Beijing, there is no sign of weakening as regards national security. There is also a strong feeling for the need to improve the system of overseeing Hong Kong. The biggest political risk would be to enact a national security ordinance.

Q: The National Congress of the Communist Party, a major event held every five years, will take place this fall. What will be its focus?

A: Xi was in charge of Hong Kong and Macao as vice president, and he is believed to have been in control of recent Hong Kong policy. The focal point will be how his speech during the July 1 ceremony -- which marks the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover from the U.K. to China -- impacts Xi's Hong Kong policy after the autumn National Congress of the Communist Party.

Q: Democratization, such as implementing popular vote to elect Hong Kong's chief executive, has made little progress. What is your view on that?

A: I don't think there will be any progress in the next five years, and it will be no surprise if the current situation becomes the permanent de facto standard. As for popular vote, I think Beijing has learned that it is impossible to solve this issue quickly. Young people who believed public opinion would be taken into account in the future have lost hope. The hurt they feel is not small.

Q: Young people are increasingly identifying themselves as "Hong Konger" as opposed to "Chinese." What is your take on that?

A: The independence movement has been dealt a blow and is now at a standstill. But it is unthinkable that young people's heightened awareness as Hong Kongers has weakened. The number of elderly who have emotional ties to mainland China is gradually declining. Hence, the increasing sense of detachment from China will not be easily stopped. Unless Beijing refrains from hostility towards Hong Kong's autonomy, it will be difficult to change the direction of [the territory].

Q: What will happen to the system after the 50-year "one country, two systems" policy ends in 2047?

A: Beijing will likely say nothing until the last minute leading up to 2047, because giving a freehand to the leader is China's way of governance. But it means major trouble for Hong Kong. Those who initiated the Umbrella Movement will be in their 40s and 50s, the most critical age in their lives. In Hong Kong, the younger the people are, the more seriously they consider this issue, but Beijing gives no thought to this. This frustrates young people in Hong Kong.

Interview by Nikkei staff writer Yasuo Awai in Hong Kong