Bradley Byrne is facing tea party flame-thrower Dean Young in the special primary runoff. | AP Photos GOP frets over Alabama contender

Tuesday’s special primary runoff for an Alabama congressional seat is heading toward a photo finish — and emerging as a potential black eye for the Republican establishment forces that have converged on the race.

Despite a fierce, last-minute push from House GOP leaders and the business community to supply cash and endorsements to Bradley Byrne, public polling shows the former state senator in a tight race with Dean Young, a flame-throwing tea party contender with a penchant for controversial remarks.


A Wednesday poll conducted by the Republican consulting firm Cygnal showed Young, a wealthy real estate investor, with a 43.2 percent to 40.2 percent lead over Byrne among likely voters. Sixteen percent of those surveyed said they were undecided. The results were within the survey’s 3 percentage point margin of error.

( Also on POLITICO: GOP identity crisis plays out in Ala.)

The two candidates are competing for the 1st Congressional District seat of Republican ex-Rep. Jo Bonner, who resigned in August to take a position at the University of Alabama System. Byrne and Young finished atop a crowded Sept. 24 primary field. Whoever wins the runoff is expected to easily secure the conservative district in the December general election.

Many people in Washington and Alabama political circles still view Byrne as the favorite: He has raised more than twice as much money as Young, is getting backup from several outside groups, and has a far more sophisticated campaign operation than his opponent.

( Also on POLITICO: Byrne, Young head to Ala. runoff)

But to some, the survey confirmed what many of Byrne’s supporters had feared all along: that Young — through his hard-nosed conservative rhetoric — was tapping a vein of support in the deep red, Mobile-area district. Firing up the district’s most conservative voters — those most likely to turn out in what is expected to be a low turnout, off-year special election — is harder for the more low-key Byrne to do.

“I think it’s a close race. It’s always been Bradley’s to lose, but I think it’s tightened in the last few weeks. Dean, if anything, embodies people’s anger at the Obama administration,” said Jerry Lathan, an Alabama Republican Party vice chairman. “It’s the same thing we’re seeing across the country, where someone is seen as the angry insurgent and they get traction.”

In an interview this week, Byrne declined to directly address the poll but said he is confident he’s in the lead.

“I think we’re ahead, but it’s a turnout race,” he told POLITICO. “But we always knew it was a turnout race.”

Should Young win, it would come as a shock to the business and Washington power brokers who’ve rushed to Byrne’s aid during the final days of the race. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has spent about $200,000 on Byrne’s behalf, and the group Ending Spending, funded by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, has poured in around $75,000 on TV and radio ads boosting him.

Others backing Byrne with campaign money include House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), as well as dozens of Washington-based political action committees, including the National Association of Homebuilders, Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America, and the National Beer Wholesalers Association.

Young, meanwhile, is relying on a grass-roots organization to pull him over the finish line.

The largesse reflects a widespread concern in GOP and business circles over Young, and a desire to strike back against the tea party members whose push to defund Obamacare in the budget fight led to the government shutdown.

GOP operatives on Capitol Hill also worry that Young’s rhetorical flair would hand Democrats a fundraising tool. Over the course of the campaign, Young has said that he’s “against homosexuals pretending like they’re married,” has called for President Barack Obama’s impeachment, and has even said he believes the president was born in Kenya.

During a recent radio interview, Young said listeners should get “a big ole thing of popcorn and a Big Super Gulp and lean back and turn on C-SPAN. Because I promise you, I will stand on the floor of the House and stand for the principles that we believe in that made this nation great.”

Of Young, Byrne said: “I think if he were elected he would be an embarrassment to the Republican Party and an embarrassment to our district.”

To some observers, however, Byrne’s backing from power players is a negative — particularly at a time when anti-Washington sentiment is through the roof.

“The more endorsements that come in for Bradley, the more he looks like the establishment. It’s hurt him,” said Brent Buchanan, an Alabama-based GOP consultant who conducted the Cygnal poll that found Young and Byrne in a horse race. “Dean’s turned this into the little guy versus The Man.”

Dax Swatek, a prominent GOP lobbyist in the state, said: “There were two things that could happen that needed to be avoided by Byrne to keep his momentum and win. One, not to let the race become the establishment candidate versus the tea party candidate and, two, not to let the race get close and the national media define it as something that matters outside of Alabama. Big picture, both those things have happened.”

Young’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

There are also some factors working against Young. While other tea party candidates have attracted the support of conservative groups like Club for Growth and the Madison Project, Young has been fighting his battle without their assistance.

And Young is running as an anti-statesmanlike figure in a district that, for decades, has elected statesmanlike figures, such as Bonner and exRep. Sonny Callahan — both of whom enjoyed close relationships with the same business community that’s now propping up Byrne.

And with voters from either party allowed to vote in the primary, there’s the possibility that Democrats will head to the polls to pull the lever for the more moderate Byrne.

Byrne made clear he didn’t think Young had much appeal from either side.

“I don’t think my opponent is a Republican,” he said. “My opponent is an extremist and he’s the kind of person we don’t want to have from either party in Washington right now.”