While the Turkish military has suffered significant casualties in Syria's Idlib region as a three-month Russian and Syrian offensive intensifies, Erdogan's former Arab partners in Syria have largely left him alone in the quagmire while they quietly broker new ties with Syria's Bashar Assad.

Experts say those Arab countries are following US policies in withdrawing from Syria and that they fear Turkey has imperial ambitions of its own. Some also dislike Erdogan's relations with their regional rival Iran, they say.

"Now he stands alone facing a superpower like Russia and an experienced Syrian army on Syrian soil," said Abdel Bari Atwan, the editor-in-chief of the London-based online Arabic daily Rai al-Youm. "His position is critical."

Read more: Idlib: 'I'd rather suffer bombs than Assad'

Although Turkey's NATO allies held urgent talks Friday after 33 Turkish soldiers were killed overnight, the body's ruling council did not commit to any new assistance, something Erdogan does not much count on anyway, according to Turkish political analyst Taha Odehoglu.

Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster On the run Traffic is heavy on the roads heading north through the Idlib region toward the Turkish border. Soldiers of the Assad regime are advancing from the south and east, aided by their Russian and Iranian allies. Some Syrian rebel groups are supported by Turkey, which also has soldiers of its own in the region. But ordinary people just want to reach safety.

Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster 'Horror has multiplied' Almost 1 million people have been displaced since December. According to UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock, "the horror has multiplied" in the past two weeks. The front lines are closing in, triggering large movements of people in the space of just a few days. Assad wants to drive the civilian population out of Idlib province, and is moving to capture this last rebel stronghold.

Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster Bombed to pieces Maaret al-Numan and the surrounding area has been particularly badly hit by the attacks. The city has been bombed to pieces and is practically deserted. The important M5 highway runs through here, from Damascus via Aleppo to the Turkish border. Most of those fleeing are trying to make it to Turkey — but the border is closed.

Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster Waiting at the border Around 100 people, including 35 children, died in bombings in the first half of February alone, according to the United Nations, which has spoken of the "blatant disregard for the life and safety of civilians." This family fled to the Turkish border months ago. They're living in the Kafr Lusin refugee camp, holding on to the hope that Turkey will eventually let them in.

Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster 500,000 children in need Out of the almost 1 million people who have fled it's estimated that around half are children. Of the rest, the majority are women. There aren't enough shacks at the Turkish border to house them all, and many refugees are living in tents. Camps are often set up in haste and are severely overcrowded. People are sleeping in doorways and on pieces of cardboard, sometimes in sub-zero temperatures.

Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster Little food and medicine Those who have been able to find a tent usually share it with about a dozen family members. Medicine is running out in many of the camps, and basic food and clothing is also becoming scarce. Doctors on the ground report that many children are suffering from malnutrition, and some are even dying of starvation. The cold is also taking its toll, and some people have already frozen to death.

Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster Refuge in a school Many children in the region can no longer go to school, so some school buildings have been repurposed. This school has been turned into a refugee shelter — sometimes, even the refugee camps are targeted in bombing raids.

Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster Trying to reach safety The illegal route across the border to Turkey is costly; hardly anyone can afford it. Smugglers are charging people up to $2,000 (about €1,800). Those who do make the attempt are risking their lives: Turkish border guards have thermal imaging cameras to help them spot people trying to cross. Sometimes they shoot at refugees who try to climb over the wall.

Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster Looking for dignity The UN has said the situation in Idlib could be the greatest humanitarian disaster of the 21st century. No one knows whether or not there will be a ceasefire. The refugees don't care who puts an end to the war; they just want a life of safety and dignity, for themselves and for their children. A four-way summit between Turkey, Russia, France and Germany, planned for March 5, is now in jeopardy. Author: Diana Hodali



"Going back seven years, Turkey was the tip of the spear in a coalition that included 65 countries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar all supported Erdogan in his political and military intervention in Syria," Atwan said.

The Arab League recognized the Syrian political opposition coalition in 2013. But now, Qatar appears to be Turkey's only firm ally in the fight, while other Arab states rebuild relations with Assad.

Switching sides

Jordan — which had previously armed rebels and flown sorties into Syria — announced in August 2017 that its bilateral ties with Damascus were "going in the right direction" again. A week later, Saudi Arabia told Syrian political opposition leaders it was disengaging from Syria.

In December 2018 the UAE and Bahrain announced they were reopening their embassies in Damascus, and in March the next year, the UAE pledged its support for Assad in the war.

But Erdogan's stalwart ally Qatar has repeatedly expressed public support for his actions in Syria, with Qatar's foreign minister telling regional media in January his country will never forget Turkey's support and will side with Ankara when necessary.

While pro-Assad outlets in Syria have reported a warming of ties with Saudi Arabia, that country's loyalties appear less clear. Turkish-Saudi relations have long been fraught but soured considerably in 2018 when Turkey pushed the de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman to account for the death of Jamal Kashoggi.

The kingdom has denied reports it has been planning to open an embassy in Damascus, and committed to supporting the opposition in Idlib in a meeting with US diplomats on Friday, according to the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Vanishes into thin air October 2: Prominent journalist Jamal Khashoggi was last seen entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, where he had gone to obtain an official document for his upcoming marriage to his Turkish fiancee, Hatice Cengiz. He never emerged from the building, prompting Cengiz, who waited outside, to raise the alarm.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Confusion over whereabouts October 3: Turkish and Saudi officials came up with conflicting reports on Khashoggi's whereabouts. Riyadh said the journalist had left the mission shortly after his work was done. But Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said the journalist was still in the consulate.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Murder claims October 6: Turkish officials said they believed the journalist was likely killed inside the Saudi consulate. The Washington Post, for which Khashoggi wrote, cited unnamed sources to report that Turkish investigators believe a 15-member team "came from Saudi Arabia" to kill the man.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Ankara seeks proof October 8: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Saudi Arabia to prove that Khashoggi left its consulate in Istanbul. Turkey also sought permission to search the mission premises. US President Donald Trump voiced concern about the journalist's disappearance.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death 'Davos in the Desert' hit October 12: British billionaire Richard Branson halted talks over a $1 billion Saudi investment in his Virgin group's space ventures, citing Khashoggi's case. He also pulled out of an investment conference in Riyadh dubbed the "Davos in the Desert." His move was followed by Uber's Dara Khosrowshahi, JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon and a host of other business leaders.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Search operation October 15: Turkish investigators searched the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The search lasted more than eight hours and investigators removed samples from the building, including soil from the consulate garden and a metal door, one official said.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Death after fistfight October 19: Saudi Arabia finally admitted that Khashoggi died at the consulate. The kingdom's public prosecutor said preliminary investigations showed the journalist was killed in a "fistfight." He added that 18 people had been detained. A Saudi Foreign Ministry official said the country is "investigating the regrettable and painful incident."

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death 'Grave mistake' October 21: Saudi Arabia provided yet another account of what happened to Khashoggi. The kingdom's foreign minister admitted the journalist was killed in a "rogue operation," calling it a "huge and grave mistake," but insisted that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had not been aware of the murder. Riyadh said it had no idea where Khashoggi's body was.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Germany halts arms sales October 21: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany would put arms exports to Saudi Arabia on hold for the time being, given the unexplained circumstances of Khashoggi's death. Germany is the fourth largest exporter of weapons to Saudi Arabia after the United States, Britain and France.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Strangled to death, dissolved in acid October 31: The Turkish prosecutor concluded that Khashoggi was strangled to death soon after entering the consulate, and was then dismembered. Another Turkish official later claimed the body was dissolved in acid. Turkish President Erdogan said the order to murder the journalist came from "the highest levels" of Saudi Arabia's government.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Grilled at the UN November 5: Saudi Arabia told the United Nations it would prosecute those responsible for Khashoggi's murder. This came as the United States and dozens of other countries raised the journalist's death before the UN Human Rights Council and called for a transparent investigation.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Fiancee in mourning November 8: Khashoggi's fiancee, Hatice Cengiz, wrote on Twitter that she was "unable to express her sorrow" upon learning that the journalist's body was dissolved with chemicals. "Are these killers and those behind it human beings?" she tweeted.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Turkey shares audio recordings November 10: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reveals that officials from Saudi Arabia, the US, Germany, France and Britain have listened to audio recordings related to the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Symbolic funeral prayers November 16: A symbolic funeral prayer for Khashoggi is held in the courtyard of the Fatih Mosque in Istanbul. Yasin Aktay, advisor to President Erdogan, speaks at the service.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Saudi-owned villas searched November 26: Turkish forensic police bring the investigation to the Turkish province of Yalova, where sniffer dogs and drones search two Saudi-owned villas in the village Samanli.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death 100 days since killing January 10: Amnesty International Turkey members demonstrate outside the Saudi Arabia Consulate in Istanbul, marking 100 day since the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. One woman holds up a street sign which reads "Jamal Khashoggi Street". The organization has called for an international investigation into the case.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death Saudi murder trial begins January 3: The Khashoggi trial begins in Saudi Arabia, where state prosecutors say they will seek the death sentence for five of the eleven suspects. A request for the gathered evidence has been send to Turkish authorities. A date for the second hearing has not yet been set.

Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death UN inquiry team in Turkey January 28: Agnes Callamard, who is leading the UN probe into the handling of the Khashoggi case, arrives in Ankara where she meets with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. The human rights expect will stay in the country for the rest of the week to speak with prosecutors and others involved in the case. Author: Ashutosh Pandey



Facts on the ground and regional rivalries

Rai al-Youm'seditor Atwan said those Arab states that had withdrawn their support were following the US' lead and realized the situation had changed after Russia entered the war, Islamic State (IS) was brought down and opposition groups had become more radical.

"The US has almost withdrawn from the Syrian crisis, and revolutionary factions have begun to fall away to the benefit of militant Islamic groups that are on the US' terrorism list," Atwan said.

But regional rivalries have also played a strong role. Atwan said one of the reasons for the split was what some Arab states saw as Turkey's attempts to "revive a neo-Ottoman empire."

Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been wary of Turkey's ambitions as it expands its military footprint in Syria, Iraq and across North Africa.

Read more: Turkey poised to send troops to Libya, ratcheting up tensions in E. Mediterranean

Qatar and Turkey also share sympathies with the Muslim Brotherhood, which those Arab monarchies and autocracies see as an ideological threat to their own political orders.

Erdogan holds out four fingers in what is known as the Rabaa sign, also understood to be a gesture of solidarity in the Muslim Brotherhood.

Turkish analyst Odehoglu said Erdogan's diplomacy with Iran over the conflict has also contributed to its isolation, as Tehran is the major regional rival for Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Limited options

As the offensive has escalated even more in recent weeks, Atwan sees two ways out: Turkey can abide by the 2018 Sochi agreement, meaning it would have to disarm Islamist groups such Hayat Tahrir al-Sham within the territory it controls, or it should withdraw, Atwan said.

"Erdogan's continued interference in Syria is interpreted as an invasion and occupation, and in the long run it can't continue," Atwan said. "Further involvement will not benefit him, and he faces strong opposition inside Turkey, especially after the death of more soldiers."

But a new influx of Syrians fleeing the violence could further erode his support domestically. Allowing them to move on to Europe, on the other hand, would see him lose billions in funding from the EU agreed as part of a deal to keep Turkey's borders closed.

Odehoglu said Erdogan is banking on a deal with Russia. "The blow Ankara has received was painful and any false steps in its response will have major repercussions for Turkey," Odehoglu said. "It does not want to lose its relationship with Russia … Turkey is tending toward striking an agreement to make a compromise to deescalate the crisis."

"Without a doubt, Turkey totally feels that it is alone among Arabs and Europeans and even with its American allies, but it does not count very much on them … the door is not completely closed with Russia."

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