With the spread of novel coronavirus continuing and March break looming, there are a lot of things to think about before taking a trip outside the country.

The Star asked four epidemiologists to weigh in on the risks that may come with your getaway. Here’s what they said:

Dave Fisman, University of Toronto

“The difficulty is we don’t live in a country where the country restricts your civil liberties on a whim. We don’t have strong evidence of transmission in the U.S. because testing has been such a clown car. And, so, on what basis would you tell people the planes are grounded and you can’t go forward? There is no basis.

“My friends going to Florida are younger people with kids. I’m not worried about the risk to them, I’m worried by reimportation that’s hitting our elderly.”

Fisman says if a couple dozen — or a couple hundred — COVID-infected people return to Canada after March break, it could lead into a new cycle of infection.

“I’m not worried about 10-year-olds, I worry about their grandparents when they come back from Florida,” he said. “It’s a community risk problem where we don’t have a lot of leverage to say, ‘You can’t travel because you might reintroduce a disease that kills people who aren’t you.’ But if you have pre-existing conditions, if you’re older than 50, then you probably want to think twice, because you’re at risk.”

Sue Bondy, University of Toronto

“The Canadian government has not stated that people should cancel voluntary travel plans because they are concerned about economic harm and individuals.

“If not taking a trip is an enormous cost to the family, right now the government agencies are not instructing you to cancel. We’re also part of a society, so we can make our own decisions on how to conduct ourselves, as part of a community.

“Of course, some employers might advise against travel, because if you get caught up in a quarantine, or travel restriction, you’re taking someone out of supply.

“You could be facing a situation like many parts of the U.S., where the number of patients who need care just explodes. Think about the risk to yourself and the risk to the community you’re associated with. If you have extended family that are frail, elderly, have pre-existing conditions, you might have motivation to not be part of a trip that has even the slightest risk.”

Timothy Sly, Ryerson University

“It’s an individual decision. I wouldn’t go to Iran or Italy at this time and we really don’t know the extent of the outbreak because the numbers could be manipulated. All the figures point to this being the best-case scenario; the least could be 20 times more dangerous.

“Not travelling is also logical in a human way, it’s probably better to avoid it. It’s probably better to have a quantitative or qualitative logic rather than just adding numbers. However, the vast majority of people will get on planes and head to their destination and they’ll come back OK.

“We don’t know exactly what proportion of people, but a number can become infected and infectious and possibly spread it to others. Even though they’re not a very large proportion, they can be very mildly asymptomatic or presymptomatic so it’s a bit of a concern.”

Isaac Bogoch, University of Toronto

“There’s no one-size-fits-all solution. It’s important that people be mindful of certain things before they travel. Some trips will go on as planned, but there are risks.

“You have to be aware of travel advisories. Know the travel advisories of the country you’re in and the country you’re going to. If you’re travelling from Canada to South Africa, but Japan is a stop along the way, South Africa might not let you in if they’ve cancelled incoming flights from Japan. So you need to know where you’re going and how you’re getting there.

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“The other thing to be aware of is that the rules may change along the way. You need bulletproof cancellation and travel insurance, and you need bulletproof health insurance as well.”

Otherwise, says Bogoch, you may want to reconsider travel plans.

“Everyone has their own risk tolerance and risk perception. What works for some people might not work for others. Some people just won’t feel comfortable going, and that’s of course understandable.”

Raneem Alozzi is a breaking news reporter, working out of the Star's radio room in Toronto. Follow her on Twitter: @r_alozzi

Jacob Lorinc is a breaking news reporter, working out of the Star's radio room in Toronto. Follow him on Twitter: @jacoblorinc

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