One of the hardest questions to answer in MMA is this: How does UFC pick who gets title shots?





Few things are as heavily criticized, or lead as many people to proclaim UFC isn't really a sports organization but an entertainment group.





But all combat sports promotions since the beginning of time have either been based matchmaking on what will draw the most, or else the organizations didn't last very long.





The simplest answer is that matchmaking in any combat sport is based on trying to give the public what they most want to see. Approaching it differently will end up a painful lesson that ends up back in the same place after learning a hard financial lesson.





Except, that's an inexact science, and while people can make reasonably good guesses, nobody can always predict with certainty what the public wants.





It hasn't been that long since UFC's leading competitor, Bellator, had its entire marketing slogan built around the idea that it was a promotion "Where title shots are earned, not given." They created a format where a fighter would have to earn a title shot like it was a team in the NCAA basketball tournament, and the entire key was winning a tournament. While that concept works great in team sports, the minute Bellator was owned by a television station that was concerned with things like ratings and advertising revenue, the tourney system was dropped like a hot potato. The person in charge who created it was gone, and replaced by a guy whose background came from leaning from the masters of carnival fighting, the Japanese, whose belief that fighting sports consists of using celebrities, giants, pro wrestlers and Olympic competitors and throwing them into a melting pot where wins and losses are not even a close second to ratings points.





Almost nobody predicted ahead of time that Ronda Rousey vs. Bethe Correia would do the biggest pay-per-view numbers so far in 2015, which has been a great year overall for the company. Correia was criticized ahead of time for being a joke contender, and the 34-second fight did little to make anyone who said that ahead of time back off that assertion. The fight was in Brazil, which, historically has meant less business on American pay-per-view.





But UFC 190 did have two elements that are the key in doing big numbers: a major drawing card as the key figure and the public believing that her and her opponent really didn't like each other.





Critics complained, and rightly so, that Correia had never beaten anyone in the top 10, and hadn't shown any signs of outstanding skill level. But it was pretty clear that to the public, that didn't matter, given no Rousey headlined show up to that time had come within 275,000 buys of the 900,000 plus that UFC 190 did. The argument that this mentality will hurt the sport due to credibility issues in the long run has been made for years. And some day, perhaps it may. But when the UFC can create a fake championship match with Conor McGregor vs. Chad Mendes , and it does multiples more than a real championship with Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson , this tells you that day isn't now, and it probably isn't any time soon.





With the exception of the featherweight title, which was just defended on Sept. 5, and the heavyweight title, where a match has been announced but a date and place hasn't, every UFC championship will be defended between Oct. 3 and Jan. 17. Some of the fight announcements, like bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz , or middleweight champion Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold, were both almost universally expected and garnered little negativity.









The contradictions are the cause of the controversy. Velasquez, who lost to Werdum via third -round submission at UFC 188 was a two-time champion who was still ranked as the No. 1 contender when he got the surprising title shot off a loss. But, like with Cormier vs. Gustafsson, where Gustafsson got a shot coming off being knocked out in the first round in his previous fight, there was really no great contender being passed over.





Lawler, however, had Johny Hendricks , a former champion who had fought evenly with him over two fights. Rousey had Miesha Tate , who she had beaten twice, but had also won a No 1 contenders' fight and was the clear No. 1 contender, and as rare as this sometimes is, was also the second-most popular and second-biggest drawing fighter in the division.





So in looking at each division and the title shot decision made, we'll compare rankings, marketability (in this case using Google searches in the U.S. over the past year, because of all the metrics I've seen, it comes the closest to actually predicting pay-per-view buys) and extenuating circumstances such as timing, injuries, recent results and other contenders, to look at the always changing decision making process.





HEAVYWEIGHTS: Fabricio Werdum vs. Cain Velasquez (date to be determined)

Rankings: Werdum is the current champion, Velasquez is the No. 1 contender. In theory, that's the "right" fight.

Marketability: Velasquez is at 3.5 times that of Junior Dos Santos and Velasquez is at 3.5 times that of Junior Dos Santos and Andrei Arlovski Stipe Miocic's numbers are too low to even measure accurately.

Extenuating circumstances: Velasquez lost via submission in his last fight. Arlovski has won six in a row, and had great momentum after his win over Velasquez lost via submission in his last fight. Arlovski has won six in a row, and had great momentum after his win over Travis Browne , to where he was largely expected to get the next shot. But even though he beat Frank Mir , he did so in a way that hurt his momentum. Dos Santos hasn't lost to anyone not named Cain Velasquez since 2007, and knocked out Werdum in 2008, and also beat Miocic in his last fight. But Velasquez beat him twice. There's also the question whether Werdum could beat Velasquez a second time and at sea level, as opposed to Mexico City's high altitude, where the first fight took place.

Verdict: Velasquez, Werdum and Arlovski could have all been picked. But it appears by a wide margin Velasquez would draw the best, and he's also the highest rated. So he wins both from a sports and a marketability criteria.





Rankings: Cormier is the champion. Gustafsson is the No. 2 contender, but the No. 1 contender, Cormier is the champion. Gustafsson is the No. 2 contender, but the No. 1 contender, Anthony Johnson , just lost to Cormier. You could argue that's not all that different than Werdum vs. Velasquez, but there's a big difference when a two-time champion who has dominated the division for years loses, and when a contender loses cleanly.

Marketability: Johnson's numbers are almost double that of Gustafsson and five times that of Johnson's numbers are almost double that of Gustafsson and five times that of Ryan Bader , while Glover Teixeira doesn't even rank.

Extenuating circumstances: With Johnson having lost his last fight, the real decision was Gustafsson over Bader. Gustafsson was knocked out in his prior fight. Bader has won four in a row, but his last win, over Phil Davis, was a boring fight which was a split decision that could have gone the other way. Teixeira also has a win over Bader, but lost to both Davis and Jon Jones after that point. The reality is there is no great contender for a shot right now since you couldn't go back to Johnson. Gustafsson is ranked higher than Bader, a bigger star than Bader, and also, a match that on paper would put Cormier in more jeopardy than Bader. Plus, looking one match down the line, UFC at some point will have With Johnson having lost his last fight, the real decision was Gustafsson over Bader. Gustafsson was knocked out in his prior fight. Bader has won four in a row, but his last win, over Phil Davis, was a boring fight which was a split decision that could have gone the other way. Teixeira also has a win over Bader, but lost to both Davis and Jon Jones after that point. The reality is there is no great contender for a shot right now since you couldn't go back to Johnson. Gustafsson is ranked higher than Bader, a bigger star than Bader, and also, a match that on paper would put Cormier in more jeopardy than Bader. Plus, looking one match down the line, UFC at some point will have Jon Jones challenge for the title. Jones vs. Cormier will be a huge fight, even though Jones handily won last time, because of the grudge match aspect. Jones vs. Gustafsson in a rematch is a huge fight, because their first fight was probably the best light heavyweight title fight in history. Jones vs. Bader is a rematch of a fight nobody wants to see again. Jones vs. Teixeira is the same. Jones vs. Rashad Evans is also the same, although it would draw far bigger than Bader or Teixeira.

Verdict: Gustafsson is very much lacking as a contender coming off the loss to Johnson. But nobody else is ready. It's the best of a bad situation. Stylistically, Bader would figure to have far less of a shot at beating Cormier than Gustafsson, and there would be less interest in the fight. There's no real good pick here. Gustafsson really is better both for drawing on Oct. 3, having a competitive fight, and if he wins, for promoting a subsequent fight with Jones.





Rankings: Rockhold is the No. 1 contender to Weidman's title, so from that standpoint, it's the right fight.

Marketability: Rockhold's numbers are 1.6 times higher than Rockhold's numbers are 1.6 times higher than Yoel Romero , and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza doesn't even come close to either.

Extenuating circumstances: In this division, you have three guys who all are very deserving of a title shot right now. Rockhold has won 13 of his last 14, including four in a row, including finishing and wrecking four straight ranked fighters in Tim Boetsch, In this division, you have three guys who all are very deserving of a title shot right now. Rockhold has won 13 of his last 14, including four in a row, including finishing and wrecking four straight ranked fighters in Costas Philippou Michael Bisping and Lyoto Machida . He also has a 2011 win over Souza, and is a former Strikeforce champion who never lost that title. Souza has won eight in a row, but his list of victims isn't as strong. Romero has won six in a row, but his win over Tim Kennedy had controversy. And the way Romero handled Machida was scary.

Verdict: Rockhold is clearly the right pick for right now. But this division is the strongest out there with three contenders who are all very much deserving a shot right now. There is nothing like this in any other weight class.





Rankings: Lawler is the champion. Condit is the No. 4 contender, behind Johny Hendricks, Lawler is the champion. Condit is the No. 4 contender, behind Johny Hendricks, Rory MacDonald and Tyron Woodley

Marketability: Hendricks, the top contender, wins this handily with MacDonald a distant second. He's five times that of Condit, and 10 times that of Woodley.

Extenuating circumstances: Lawler has faced Hendricks twice. Both fights went down to the final round. With each winning a fight, they are even at five rounds each over their careers against each other. Hendricks also is coming off a win over Lawler has faced Hendricks twice. Both fights went down to the final round. With each winning a fight, they are even at five rounds each over their careers against each other. Hendricks also is coming off a win over Matt Brown . MacDonald just lost to Lawler, so for now, he's not in the running. Condit has lost three of his last five, with wins over Martin Kampmann and Thiago Alves . He's lost to Georges St-Pierre in a title shot, as well as Woodley and Hendricks. Woodley has won four of his last five, only losing to MacDonald.

Verdict: Hendricks is clearly the right pick. Yet Condit got it. It's impossible to argue Condit ahead of Hendricks, and difficult to argue him ahead of Woodley. Lawler vs. Condit on paper does sound like an entertaining fight, and it's also new. But the first Lawler vs. Hendricks bout won several Fight of the Year awards. Hendricks doesn't have a lot of public momentum, and even though Condit's shot appears to make no sense, it got very little backlash.





Rankings: Cerrone is the No. 2 contender, behind former champion Cerrone is the No. 2 contender, behind former champion Anthony Pettis , who lost the belt to dos Anjos

Marketability: Pettis is 1.5 times that of Cerrone, while Pettis is 1.5 times that of Cerrone, while Khabib Nurmagomedov and Eddie Alvarez are far behind.

Extenuating circumstances: The dos Anjos vs. Pettis dynamic has similarities to that of Werdum vs. Velasquez. The difference is, there was no lightweight contender as strong as Cerrone. Cerrone has won eight in a row, including wins over Alvarez, Benson Henderson and Edson Barboza. Cerrone also has losses to both dos Anjos and Pettis in fights he wasn't competitive in. Nurmagomedov is 22-0, including a clear win over dos Anjos, but hasn't fought in 17 months due to repeated knee injuries.

Verdict: Cerrone is the right choice for right now. Nurmagomedov faces Cerrone is the right choice for right now. Nurmagomedov faces Tony Ferguson on Dec. 11, while Pettis faces Alvarez on Jan. 17. Who gets the follow-up shot should be based on those two fights and who looks the best. Pettis has the edge if all circumstances are even as the former champion and bigger name.





FEATHERWEIGHTS: Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor (Dec. 12, Las Vegas, UFC 194)

Rankings: Aldo is the only featherweight champion in UFC history. McGregor is the interim champion.

Marketability: Need you even ask?

Extenuating circumstances: One could have argued Frankie Edgar was more deserving of the shot than McGregor, and McGregor got it more due to his mouth than his wins, and before July 11, that would be correct. But McGregor took apart Chad Mendes to win the interim belt.

Verdict: This fight is so obviously the right fight to make that it's not even worth discussing other alternatives. If Edgar beat Mendes, he'll get his shot. If Aldo and Mendes both win, things get trickier and This fight is so obviously the right fight to make that it's not even worth discussing other alternatives. If Edgar beat Mendes, he'll get his shot. If Aldo and Mendes both win, things get trickier and Max Holloway could be in the picture.





Rankings: Cruz is ranked as the No. 2 contender, behind Cruz is ranked as the No. 2 contender, behind Renan Barao , who Dillashaw has now finished twice, both times in one-sided fashion. If Cruz had fought more than once since 2011, he'd be ranked No. 1.

Marketability: still ranks ahead of Cruz, but Faber isn't going to fight Dillashaw. Urijah Faber still ranks ahead of Cruz, but Faber isn't going to fight Dillashaw.

Extenuating circumstances: Cruz was a dominant champion until a series of knee injuries threatened to end his career. He's got a 20-1 career record with his lone loss coming to Faber in 2007, which he avenged in 2011. But he's only fought once in nearly four year. With Cruz was a dominant champion until a series of knee injuries threatened to end his career. He's got a 20-1 career record with his lone loss coming to Faber in 2007, which he avenged in 2011. But he's only fought once in nearly four year. With Raphael Assuncao injured, and Faber being Dillashaw's teammate and training partner, the only other fighter even in a discussion is Aljamin Sterling, who needs to build up his name.

Verdict: This is the obvious fight. The only question is if we actually see it with Cruz's knee issues. This fight has the right story, with the longstanding Cruz vs. Team Alpha Male rivalry, and Cruz going for a title he never lost in the cage.



WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT: Ronda Rousey vs. Holly Holm (Nov. 14, Melbourne, Australia, UFC 193) This is the obvious fight. The only question is if we actually see it with Cruz's knee issues. This fight has the right story, with the longstanding Cruz vs. Team Alpha Male rivalry, and Cruz going for a title he never lost in the cage.

Rankings: Holm is the No. 8 contender, but of those ranked ahead of her, Rousey has beaten five, and Holm is the No. 8 contender, but of those ranked ahead of her, Rousey has beaten five, and Jessica Eye is coming off a loss. Tate, ranked No. 1, has lost twice to Rousey, but has won four in a row since her 2013 loss and won a No. 1 contender fight last time out.

Marketability: Tate is more than double that of Holm, while Tate is more than double that of Holm, while Amanda Nunes , the other top 10 fighter that Rousey hasn't beaten, doesn't even register.

Extenuating circumstances: Holm is undefeated, but hasn't beaten anyone in the top ten. Tate has four top 10 wins, but two losses to Rousey. Tate is Rousey's career rival and there is always a grudge match atmosphere and long-term storyline when they fight. In addition, much of the current Rousey fan base is new, and the Tate fight is new to them, However, Holm has a slew of boxing world titles and with the audience that follows Rousey, which is far more casual, the idea of Rousey being challenged by an undefeated boxing world champion may register well. However, there is no grudge aspect of Rousey vs. Holm, and that was a key component of the success of the Correia fight.

Verdict: Rousey will probably draw big no matter who she fights. But in this case, UFC may have over thought the subject, thinking Tate's two losses would hurt the build. The boxing vs. MMA thing with undefeated fighters is a good hook, but Holm is far less marketable than Tate and thus far hasn't been nearly as compelling in promoting the fight either.





Marketability: Letourneau is far behind everyone in the top ten besides Moroz.

Extenuating circumstances: For marketing reasons, the company wanted Jedrzejczyk on the same show as Rousey. Gadelha, the clear and obvious contender was injured and wasn't going to be able to make the date. Esparza and Penne were destroyed by Jedrzejczyk so them getting a shot is out of the question. They are, rightly so, figuring VanZant is marketable long-term and this would be a bad idea to have her go for the title this early. Namajunas and Torres are already booked for other fights, although for a title shot they could make a change. Calderwood and Markos aren't booked. Letourneau has won four in a row, while Calderwood and Markos each have one-fight win streaks.

Verdict: The only fighter ready for a shot is Gadelha, who wasn't available. The whole idea of the fight is to showcase Jedrzejczyk in front of the Rousey fan base. Letourneau is not as bad a contender given the circumstances as her ranking indicates. But anyone available would be an extreme longshot to win. There are a number of contenders they could have put in, none would seem to have a good shot at winning, but most are higher ranked and better known than Letourneau.