Below is our list of the top-100 prospects in baseball. The scouting summaries were compiled with information provided by available data, industry sources, as well as from our own observations.

Note that prospects are ranked by number but also lie within tiers demarcated by their Future Value grades. The FV grade is more important than the ordinal rankings. For example, the gap between prospect No. 5 on this list, Victor Robles, and prospect No. 35, Sean Murphy, is 30 spots, and there’s a substantial difference in talent there. The gap between Travis Swaggerty (No. 56) and Adrian Morejon (No. 86), meanwhile, is also 30 numerical places, but the difference in talent is relatively small. You may have noticed that there are more than 100 prospects in the table below, and more than 100 scouting summaries. That’s because we have also included 50 FV prospects who didn’t make the 100; their reports appear below, under the “Other 50 FV Prospects” header. The same comparative principle applies to them.

As a quick explanation, variance means the range of possible outcomes in the big leagues, in terms of peak season. If we feel a prospect could reasonably have a best big league season of anywhere from one to five WAR, that would be “high” variance, whereas someone like Colin Moran, whose range is something like two to three WAR, would be “low” variance. High variance can be read as a good thing, since it allows for lots of ceiling, or a bad thing, since it allows for a lower floor. Your risk tolerance could lead you to sort by variance within a given FV tier if you feel strongly about it. Here is a primer explaining the connection between FV and WAR. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

You’ll also notice that this year, we’ve added probable FV outcome distribution graphs for each prospect on our list. This is our attempt to graphically represent how likely each FV outcome is for each prospect. Using the work of Craig Edwards, we found the base rates for each FV tier of prospect (separately for hitters and pitchers), and the likelihood of each FV of outcome. For example, based on Craig’s research, the average 60 FV hitter on a list becomes a perennial 5+ WAR player over his six controlled years 26% of the time, and a 27% chance of accumulating, at most, a couple WAR during his six controlled years. We started with these base rates for every player, then manually tweaked them to reflect how we think the player differs from the average player in that FV tier, since a player in rookie ball and a player in Triple-A with the same FV grade obviously don’t have exactly the same odds of success. So, these graphs are based on empirical findings, but with the subjectivity of our opinions included to more specifically reflect what we think the odds are of various outcomes. This is just a concept we’ve been kicking around for a while, one we hope to continue to refine to try to better communicate things about prospects.

We think arguments can be made as to how you line up the players in a given tier (and we had plenty of those arguments), but we arranged them as we did for a variety of reasons about which you can inquire in today’s chat, which begins at Noon ET.

70 FV Prospects

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. , 3B, TOR Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TOR) Age 19.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 70 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 65/70 80/80 65/70 40/30 45/45 60/60 Guerrero has a messianic bat, and while he may have to move off of third base quite soon, he’ll probably hit enough to be a superstar anyway. The best prospect in baseball, Guerrero hit a superhuman .381/.437/.636 across 95 games (mostly at Double and Triple-A) despite being about six years younger than the other athletes in the Eastern and International Leagues. The ball doesn’t just sound different off of his bat; when he really lays into one, you can feel a thump inside your chest as if someone set off a firework at home plate. It’s explosive, beautiful, and paradoxically violent considering that Vladimir is so childlike in his shape and demeanor. He plays with a vivacious enthusiasm, totally unashamed of his own at times bizarre mannerisms, as if the way he feels when playing elite pro baseball is how most of us did with a wiffle ball in our hands during adolescence. (Late during Fall League, he was cranky and petulant with umpires.) But his is not a childlike stature. His listed 6-foot-1, 200 pounds is a farce, and on the few occasions that Guerrero and Peter Alonso (who is listed at 6-foot-3, 245) were standing near one another during Fall League, Vlad was clearly the larger human being. While he reaches an almost shocking top speed on the bases given his size, Guerrero does have lateral mobility issues that impact his range at third base. He is very likely to move to first base or DH at some point in his early 20s, but leaving him at third, even if he’s not very good there, might help motivate him to keep his weight in check for as long as possible, something that could be more important than the quality of his play in the field since Vlad had knee issues during the 2018 season. Really though, it matters very little where he ends up playing. This is the best hitter in the minors and the stick will play anywhere. For at least two years now people around baseball, including the late Mel Didier, swore that Guerrero would be ready for and competing in the majors before he turned 20. Toronto’s desire to maintain control of his talent for as long as possible scuttled that notion late last summer when they chose not to promote him, and Vlad will turn 20 in March before this season even starts. He should be up early this year, and immediately become one of the game’s most exciting, productive hitters. He is the cornerstone of the Blue Jays franchise, and perhaps a cornerstone of our sport. Expand arrow_drop_down

65 FV Prospects

2. Wander Franco , SS, TBR Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR) Age 18.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / R FV 65 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/65 60/65 30/55 60/60 45/50 60/60 Franco is really close to a perfect prospect, as he’s plus at almost everything he tries, and has one of the best pro debuts we’ve ever seen. Franco was identified as a top tier player in his age group as early as 12 or 13, and was seen regularly by scouts by age 14. Sometimes, precocious prospects are workout warriors or have early physical peaks, but Franco isn’t either of those. He essentially hasn’t failed on a baseball field in any meaningful way since puberty, with his success punctuated by a 2018 pro debut in which he outpaced the game’s most recent phenom, No. 1 overall prospect Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., in just about every way, at the same level, at the same age. Franco signed for the largest bonus in the 2017 July 2nd class ($3.825 million) and was seen as the best player in the class by a good margin. There were some questions about his occasionally disinterested style of play as an amateur, but he likely already had a deal done and didn’t have anything to play for in later workouts. He’s literally always been the best player on any field he’s been on, usually by a lot. The raw tools are accordingly loud, and match his stats: at least a plus hit tool with explosive bat speed, elite bat and body control, and an advanced sense of the zone to go along with plus raw power, plus speed, a plus arm, and a real chance to stick at shortstop. Franco is about as close as you’ll see to a perfect prospect at this point, with questions only arising if you really nitpick — the main one being that Franco isn’t tall — but he already has huge power, so it matters less that he isn’t physically projectable. The Rays have indicated they will start Franco at Low-A in 2019 and, so long as he keeps performing, keep pushing him until he’s challenged so he can experience adversity before he reaches the big leagues. It wouldn’t surprise us to see Franco move across multiple levels, but we wouldn’t expect a Juan Soto-esque pace of promotion, and a 2019 MLB debut seems incredibly unlikely, given the Rays’ upper-level infield glut and the service time implications. Rays officials have likened their immediate impression of Franco, as a player and person, to Evan Longoria. Teammates respond to him, and there isn’t even a whiff of the makeup concern some scouts conjured up as an amateur. Franco seems to be the sole author of his potential at this point. Expand arrow_drop_down

3. Fernando Tatis Jr. , SS, SDP Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (CHW) Age 20.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 65 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/50 60/70 50/60 55/50 50/55 60/60 Tatis still has a chance to turn into some version of Manny Machado, but opinions differ on how much we should be concerned about his contact ability. Though his numbers were mostly the same as they were during a very impressive 2018 at Double-A San Antonio (.286/.355/.507, 16 HR, 16 SB), Tatis appeared to come of age in the higher-stakes environment of the Dominican Winter League. Except for the sliver of our population who are both prospect hounds and savvy internet streamers, Tatis’ LIDOM brilliance was mostly obscured from American eyes, and may one day exist only as an oral history, the way John Lucas and Bernard King’s D.C. summer league cameos do for basketball fans today. Nevertheless, MLB scouts and teams are well-aware of Tatis’ all-world physical gifts, but the Padres knew first. Scouted and snatched away from the Camelback Ranch backfields by A.J. Preller himself, Tatis had barely worn a White Sox uniform before he was flipped to San Diego for James Shields during 2016 Extended Spring. He wasn’t a highly-regarded amateur prospect when he signed the year before the trade, but he got better very quickly and essentially hasn’t stopped. He has Carlos Correa‘s frame, but is more agile and acrobatic a defender than Correa, and while there’s some risk that Tatis will eventually fill out beyond viability at shortstop, it probably won’t be for a while, and in the interim he’s going to be quite good there. He also has power that is rare for the big leagues generally, let alone for a middle infielder, and he has gotten to it in games thus far despite some issues with strikeouts. There’s a sizable gap between the low-end of Tatis’ possible outcomes (he moves to third quickly and always has contact issues) and the high end (he becomes a plus glove at short and has an offensive trajectory like George Springer‘s, whose contact issues suddenly went away) but right tail outcomes like this barely exist across baseball, and we may see Tatis in San Diego this year. Strikeout-prone prospects often require some time to adjust and can take a little bit to perform, but we like Tatis’ chances to become a superstar, the crest of the Padres’ wave of young talent and a cornerstone of a burgeoning franchise. Expand arrow_drop_down

4. Forrest Whitley , RHP, HOU Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Alamo Heights HS (TX) (HOU) Age 21.4 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 65 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops 70/70 60/65 60/60 60/70 50/55 40/50 93-99 / 100 Whitley has five — count ’em five — excellent pitches, including one of the minors’ highest curveball spin rates and best changeups. He’s also a well-made 6-foot-7 and his upper-90s fastball motors toward the plate at an angle that’s tough for hitters to square. Whitley was listed at 235 pounds on the 2015 Area Code Games roster but was tipping the scales at 260 not long before that. At that event, he was sitting in the 90-92 range with feel for locating a solid-average curveball. He looked like a mature-bodied pitchability prospect whose stuff might be done improving. During that fall and winter, though, Whitley began to reshape his physique. He dropped about 50 pounds and came out the following spring with much better stuff, his fastball creeping into the 93-95 range and touching 97. Whitley and his stuff have continued to improve, though he had a somewhat chaotic 2018. He missed the season’s first 50 games due to a suspension for the use of an unknown stimulant, then had his season debut pushed back due to a lat strain. He finally toed the rubber at Double-A Corpus Christi in June and made five four-inning starts before he was removed in the first inning of his sixth outing and placed on the IL with an oblique strain. He missed a little over a month, then made two more starts in August before feeling lat discomfort warming up for what would have been a third. He was shut down as a precaution and sent to the Arizona Fall League to pick up innings. His stuff was wholly intact in Arizona, as Whitley sat 93-97 and touched 99. His apparitional changeup haunts both left and right-handed hitters, disappearing beneath barrels as it approaches the plate. Whitley’s array of breaking stuff is well-designed. His power 12-6 curveball honors his Texas heritage but has been de-emphasized as an out pitch in deference to his tilting, mid-80s slider. He has the best collection of stuff in the minor leagues, and might have been in the big leagues last year if not for various setbacks. He may be on somewhat of an innings limit this year because he didn’t pitch all that much in 2018, but barring that, we expect he’ll help the Astros cause at some point in 2019. Expand arrow_drop_down

5. Victor Robles , CF, WSN Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (WSN) Age 21.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 65 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 60/65 50/50 45/50 70/70 70/70 70/70 He lacks big raw power, but Robles has every other tool and they all play up because he has terrific feel and instincts. He should be a great defensive center fielder and baserunner who makes lots of quality gap-to-gap contact. If not for a hyperextended elbow that shelved him for several months in 2018, Robles wouldn’t be on this list. (The injury to Robles was also part of why Washington pushed Juan Soto along quickly.) In the 2017 Fall League (he missed some time that season due to hamstring tightness), he looked both readier and nearly as talented as fellow Fall Leaguer Ronald Acuña, and it seemed certain that he’d be up for good at some point the following spring. But in April an awkward dive on a shallow fly ball that most center fielders wouldn’t even have sniffed at bent Robles’ elbow backward and based on the way he writhed around in pain, the injury appeared catastrophic. X-rays were negative and an MRI showed no structural damage, but Robles didn’t start swinging a bat for a month and a half and was out of game action for three. He spent July and August rehabbing before a great September in Washington, during which he slashed .288/.348/.525. This is a do-everything center fielder who glides from gap to gap, has runner-halting arm strength, and plus-plus speed that is aided by seemingly sixth-sense instincts on the bases. Robles has middling bat speed and doesn’t generate huge exit velocity, but he has above-average hand-eye coordination, bat control, and pitch recognition, and a gap-to-gap approach that suits his speed. He’ll slug on paper by turning the line drives he slaps into the gaps in to extra bases. Robles has slightly below-average plate discipline, which may dilute his production for a bit, but he projects as a 3-plus WAR center fielder with a skillset akin to Lorenzo Cain‘s, and he’s big league ready right now. Expand arrow_drop_down

6. Royce Lewis , SS, MIN Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from JSerra HS (CA) (MIN) Age 19.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr R / R FV 65 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/60 50/55 40/50 60/60 40/50 55/55 Lewis has drawn Derek Jeter comparisons for years and after a loud 2018, it’s hard to ignore that that’s a real possibility. Lewis was on the scouting radar early in his high school career in southern California, starring for one of the top programs in the country and showing above average tools at an early stage. Toward the end of showcase season, scouts started throwing around Derek Jeter comparisons, saying that Lewis had a similar frame with chance for a 70 bat, 55 raw power, and the possibility to stick at shortstop with some work. Others saw closer to a 50 or 55 bat and a center fielder, and his draft spring was up-and-down, with scouts that charted all of his games reporting his hitting stats were not strong, though the tools were all still present. The Twins took him first overall and cut a below slot deal, as Lewis was seen as one of five options in a top tier of talent without a clear top option. Things have gone even better than expected for Lewis in pro ball, hitting above league average at every stop and reaching High-A at age 19 while improving defensively at shortstop. Most scouts think he can stick there, which was not the case even a year ago, and one long-time scout even said Lewis is ahead of where Jeter was defensively at the same stage. We’ll call it a 60 bat with 50 game power and 50 defense, but there’s ceiling for more in here. Expand arrow_drop_down

60 FV Prospects

7. Nick Senzel , 3B, CIN Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Tennessee (CIN) Age 23.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 55/70 55/55 40/55 55/55 45/55 55/55 Senzel has a contact and power combination that will profile anywhere on the diamond, and he’s a likely star if he ends up at his natural position (third base) or proves athletically capable of handling second base or center field. Several freak injuries upended Senzel’s 2018. He missed most of May battling vertigo symptoms for the second time in nine months (they first started in late August ’17), then fractured a finger in late-June and missed the rest of the season. He was supposed to play in the Fall League, but a return of the left elbow pain he had played through during the year became severe enough that he needed an MRI, which revealed bone spurs. He had surgery and was shut down for the year. When Senzel did play, he was very good and slashed .310/.378/.509 in 44 games at Triple-A while playing second base for the first time in affiliated ball. Senzel’s likely future defensive home is still to be determined. He wasn’t a very good defensive third baseman early in college but became one as a junior. The presence of Eugenio Suarez led to reps at second base, and Scooter Gennett‘s emergence, led to what was supposed to be reps in left and center field this fall before Senzel needed surgery. The departure of Billy Hamilton leaves an obvious hole that he could potentially fill, but he hasn’t been seen playing center enough to know for sure. At the very least, he has stumbled into defensive versatility. Mostly though, Senzel hits. He doesn’t have monster raw power, nor does he seek to take max-effort swings by utilizing a big stride or leg kick. Instead, his power comes from precise, high-quality contact. He’s going to be a doubles machine with home runs coming opportunistically rather than playing core aspect of his approach, but he’ll still hit for power. He has the skills and polish of a near-ready star, and the injuries don’t seem like they’re going to be a chronic thing. Expand arrow_drop_down

8. Eloy Jimenez , RF, CHW Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (CHC) Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/55 70/80 60/70 40/40 45/50 60/60 Jimenez’s body has gotten very big, very quickly, and he has had a myriad of injury issues, but he has also performed at every minor league level and has cartoonish all-fields power that plays in games because he also has good feel for contact. Even before the White Sox acquired Jimenez from the Cubs in the Jose Quintana trade, he had dealt with a multitude of injuries. Hamstring and shoulder issues plagued him while he was still with the Cubs, and limited him to DH duty, or forced him to sit out for a few days at a time, or altogether kept rehabbing him on the Mesa backfields. He has continued to have various issues since the South Siders acquired him. In 2018 alone, Jimenez dealt with patella tendinitis during the early part of spring training, then was left back in extended due to a strained pec. He suffered a strained left adductor in July, and finally a quad strain this winter, which ended his Dominican Winter League season. But while Eloy has missed considerable time with injuries and sometimes played through them, he has mashed like few other players in the minors. He split 2018 between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte, slashing .337/.384/.577, his strikeout rate plummeting to 13% at the latter stop. Despite his limited speed and at-bats, he somehow managed to net 53 extra-base hits and seemed ready for a big league cup of coffee in September. The White Sox refused to brew him one, and Eloy’s agent threatened to file a grievance against the club. He’ll likely be up at some point this year, and while we think there’s a chance injury or a lack of mobility limit Eloy’s ceiling the way flaws have similarly limited some of Chicago’s other recent prospect graduates, we still think he’ll hit enough to be a star. Expand arrow_drop_down

9. Bo Bichette , SS, TOR Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Lakewood HS (FL) (TOR) Age 20.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/60 60/60 40/55 45/45 45/50 60/60 Bichette had a solid 2018 and still has a shot to be a 60 hit/60 power middle infielder. There’s some contextual disappointment surrounding Bichette’s 2018 stat-line because he didn’t recreate his video game numbers from the year before, but he still netted an incredible 61 extra-base hits as a 20-year-old at Double-A. We remain skeptical of his long term viability at shortstop, where he continues to see most of his reps, but his arm is plus and teams are growing increasingly willing to put players with limited lateral quickness at short if it means shoehorning a special offensive talent into the position, and Bichette is one. Ultimately, it probably doesn’t matter where he ends up playing defense because his bat is likely to profile. He has scintillating bat speed, and Bichette’s hand-eye coordination and bat control are an effective foil for the garage band noisiness of his swing, which hasn’t negatively impacted his ability to make contact in pro ball. Bichette ditches his leg kick with two strikes, something we’re not certain is all that helpful based on visual evidence. Ideally, Bichette will start lifting the ball more often (he has a league-average ground ball rate right now) and turn some of these doubles into homers, but it’s hard to justify making a change when he has been wildly successful so far. Status quo Bo is still a doubles machine who probably stays on the infield, and is a likely All-Star. Expand arrow_drop_down

10. Kyle Tucker , RF, HOU Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Plant HS (FL) (HOU) Age 22.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/60 60/60 50/60 40/40 40/50 55/55 Tucker’s short major league debut did not go well but most scouts still think there’s an above average everyday player in there, one with a shot at stardom if it all clicks. A very divisive amateur prospect, some scouts were put off by Tucker’s unique swing, while it reminded others of Ted Williams‘. The Astros have parlayed his natural bat control into more power. Tucker has gotten stronger and more physically mature, his lower half is better incorporated into his swing than it was in high school, and in 2017, he began lifting the ball more as his ground ball rate dropped from 42% to 34%. With that additional lift has come in-game power and Tucker has slugged well over .500 during each of the last two seasons, and hit about 25 homers during each campaign. He had a horrendous 28-game big league debut but his long track record of hitting suggests that should be heavily discounted. Though Tucker spent much of his minor league career in center field, he’s a below average runner who is ticketed for an outfield corner, probably in right. He’s an opportunistic base stealer but almost all of his value is tied to his bat, and we think he eventually ends up as a middle of the order bat with a dynamic hit/power combination. There are still detractors who don’t like Tucker’s motor, or his swing, but on the low end he projects somewhere in the Max Kepler/Nomar Mazara area, and that still plays everyday. Expand arrow_drop_down

11. Jo Adell , RF, LAA Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Ballard HS (KY) (LAA) Age 19.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/50 70/70 50/70 60/55 50/55 50/50 One of the most explosive athletes in the minors, Adell has made a surprisingly quick ascent to the upper levels and will be an elite big leaguer so long as his bat-to-ball skills continue to develop. Adell played across three levels last year and reached Double-A at age 19. The swing and miss issues he exhibited in high school led many to assume his development might be slow, but after a month of vaporizing Low-A pitching at Burlington, he was quickly sent to the Cal League, where he’d spend most of the year. At Inland Empire, Adell continued to perform, and the Angels pushed him to Double-A Mobile in August, where he was finally forced to deal with some adversity, and struck out 31% of the time. Several prospects of recent memory (Byron Buxton, Domonic Brown, and Brandon Wood to name a few) have possessed such titanic physical gifts that they essentially weren’t challenged until they reached the big leagues, and some people in baseball posit that it can be psychologically taxing to deal with growing pains in that bright of a spotlight, with the hopes of a franchise and its fans on one’s shoulders. Adell is that kind of physical talent. He has a rare blend of power and speed, speed that he has retained since high school even though he has added about 20 pounds. He’s now a better bet to stay in center field during his prime than he was in high school, when scouts assumed he’d slow down as he added weight. His feel for going back on balls in center is pretty good and some of the arm strength that Adell (who was once into the mid-90s on the mound) suddenly lost in high school has returned. His breaking ball recognition and bat control will continue to be tested by upper-level pitching, and if they start to show improvement, it’s not only a sign that Adell is adjusting but that he has the capacity to do so in the future. At that point, we’re talking prime Andrew McCutchen and Grady Sizemore-type tools. Expand arrow_drop_down

12. Taylor Trammell , LF, CIN Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Mount Paran HS (GA) (CIN) Age 21.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/60 55/55 40/55 70/70 55/70 40/40 Trammell has the explosive tools and football background of Carl Crawford, but has better feel for the game at the same stage of development. Trammell has uncommon on-field self-awareness for a two-sport high school athlete who was only 20 last year. He has excellent plate discipline and an all-fields, gap-to-gap approach that suits his plus-plus speed; everything he slices down the line or sprays into the gap goes for extra-bases. Trammell also put on a shocking display during BP at the Futures Game and hit two absolute seeds during the game. He never did anything remotely like that in the Fall League (nor, frankly, did any of the other prospects who played in D.C. and then later in Arizona) and actually struggled to turn on balls there, but there’s a chance of huge, if dormant, in-game power here, too. Though Trammell runs well enough to play center field (by a lot), his arm strength still might limit him to left field. That’s where we have him projected, where we think he’ll be a Carl Crawford or Brett Gardner type of defender. He projects as an excellent leadoff hitter with some pop, but there’s a chance he ends up hitting for more power at some point. Expand arrow_drop_down

13. Keston Hiura , 2B, MIL Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from UC Irvine (MIL) Age 22.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/60 60/60 45/60 45/45 45/50 45/45 Hiura has one of the best hit/power combos in the minor leagues, and it looks like he’ll be able to play a solid second base. Hiura reached Double-A in his first full pro season, and then was clearly one of the top five or six talents in the Arizona Fall League, where he won League MVP. Most importantly, his arm strength is once again viable at second base. An elbow injury relegated Hiura to DH-only duty as a junior at UC Irvine, and he may have gone even earlier in the 2017 draft if not for concerns about the injury and how it might limit his defense. That’s no longer a concern, as Hiura has an average arm and plays an unspectacular second base. This is an incredible hitter. He has lightning-quick hands that square up premium velocity and possesses a rare blend of power and bat control. Hiura’s footwork in the box is a little noisier than it has to be, and if any of his swing’s elements are ill-timed, it can throw off the rest of his cut. This, combined with an aggressive style of hitting, could cause him to be streaky. But ultimately he’s an exceptional hitting talent and he’s going to play a premium defensive position. We think he’s an All-Star second baseman. Expand arrow_drop_down

14. Brendan McKay , LHP/1B, TBR Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Louisville (TBR) Age 23.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 212 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/55 65/65 40/55 35/30 45/50 60/60 Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops 55/55 55/60 50/55 50/55 55/60 91-95 / 96 McKay is the best two-way prospect anyone has seen in a long time (if you ignore Shohei Ohtani) and is on a path to being a mid-rotation starter and solid DH. McKay was a cold-weather, two-way high school prospect with average tools. As is the case with many Louisville commits, his asking price was high. He got to campus and took such an immediate step forward that he was invited to play for college Team USA after just his freshman year. His tools steadily progressed and entering his draft spring, McKay was showing effortless 65-grade raw power, and above-average raw stuff on the mound. On draft day, we think a slight majority of teams preferred McKay as a hitter (the two of us were split). But every MLB team had him as a first round talent both ways, so it seemed inevitable that he would be the rare player who would get a chance to do both in pro ball so his team could at least have time to determine which path was the right one if he couldn’t do both. That open-minded approach has driven how Tampa Bay has developed McKay. In 2018, his offense was fine — he was unlucky by advanced and TrackMan metrics — while he really broke out as a pitcher, regularly showing all the best stuff that he had only flashed in college. McKay leaned on a low-to-mid-90s fastball and didn’t have trouble navigating lineups because of his above average to plus command of the pitch. A plus-flashing curveball is his best secondary offering, but his cutter and changeup are both above-average, giving him No. 2 or 3 starter upside, and he’s not a long way off from reaching it. Shohei Ohtani’s usage is the only precedent for how McKay might be handled: a standout, playoff rotation-caliber starter and DH. Given how baseball is valuing first base/DH players, there appears to be much more value on the mound for McKay, but there’s still a real chance he turns into something like a 110 wRC+ hitter who could make a club just on the merits of his hitting and fielding ability as a first baseman, and scouts have always raved about his makeup and work ethic. The most exciting scenario would be if Tampa Bay paired him with a two-way righty (they currently have two in Matt Davidson and Tanner Dodson) and pull the gambit Joe Maddon has tried before: rotating righty and lefty pitchers between the mound and a spot in the field based on the matchups. It could be an effective strategy on its own while enabling roster flexibility in other areas, and it saves matchup relievers until later in the game. Of course, nobody wants the Rays to get too cute and spoil what might just be a traditional, mid-rotation profile. Expand arrow_drop_down

15. Keibert Ruiz , C, LAD Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (LAD) Age 20.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr S / R FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 55/70 50/50 30/40 30/20 50/60 55/55 Elite arm accuracy, receiving, and feel for contact drive Ruiz’s profile, which is incomplete but still spectacular for a catcher. Watching Ruiz catch is like watching video of Alan Shepard play golf on the moon. Things seem to be moving at a different pace for Keibert, especially on defense. He has a thick, unimpressive build and is a mediocre athlete, but almost all of his baseball skills are elite. He’s one of the better receivers in the minors and is a better ball blocker than one would expect given his lack of athleticism, as if he has wild pitch precognition. Despite average pure arm strength, Ruiz is going to snipe a lot of would-be base-stealers because his throws are almost always right on the bag. The skills-over-tools coloration of Ruiz’s profile continues on offense, where his hand-eye coordination and bat control make him extraordinarily hard to strike out. He struck out in just 8% of his plate appearances last year as a 19/20-year-old at Double-A Tulsa. Because Ruiz can make contact with just about anything, he tries to, and his lack of selectivity will likely limit his big league power output and perhaps his ability to reach base. But he has a very rare skillset for a catcher and a good chance to be an All-Star. Expand arrow_drop_down

16. Alex Kirilloff , RF, MIN Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Plum HS (PA) (MIN) Age 21.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/60 55/60 35/55 50/45 45/50 60/60 Kirilloff has advanced feel to hit and plus raw power, with something like a 1 in 6 chance he turns into Joey Votto. Kirilloff comes from the Pittsburgh area, hardly a hotbed for talent, but he distinguished himself in the summer before his draft year despite a slightly quirky uppercut swing. By the end of the summer, scouts had seen enough from Kiriloff and Bo Bichette to convince them that these swings could work, and that Kirilloff and Bichette belonged in the top few rounds, with both continuing to beat expectations. Kirilloff went in the middle of the first round in 2016, and missed time immediately after playing his first 55 pro games with Tommy John surgery. He came back for his first full season in 2018 and dominated both Low-A and High-A, hitting over .330 at both stops with 20 homers on the season and strikeout rates below league average. There’s some chance he is even more than just a 60 hitter with 55 or 60 power, which is what most scouts are projecting right now, with something like a 15-20% chance that Kirilloff turns into the next Joey Votto. There’s some disagreement about whether his 2018 season was him dominating pitching that didn’t challenge him, or if he has an approach that’s a little too aggressive and he just got away with it in 2018. Kirilloff is a fringy runner who’s an average defender in right field and has a plus arm, but he may bulk up and move to first base down the line, which would likely come with more power as well. Expand arrow_drop_down

17. Sixto Sanchez , RHP, MIA Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 20.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 65/65 45/50 55/60 50/60 45/55 94-98 / 101 Shoulder issues have limited Sanchez’s workload during each of the last two seasons, but he has a rare combination of present stuff and command, which is shocking considering he hasn’t been pitching for all that long. Sanchez’s first 2019 start — during which he walked an uncharacteristically high four hitters and spent much of the outing rotating his head and neck about his shoulders, and stretching his arm and upper back — was perhaps a harbinger of things to come; his season would later end due to multiple injuries. After that rough first start, his stuff and command were as they usually are. He was generating upper-90s velocity with ease, his breaking balls were crisp, and his changeups were well-located and moving. He walked just seven hitters in his final seven starts of the year before succumbing to elbow inflammation, which ended his regular season in early-June. Sanchez rehabbed in Florida in anticipation of an Arizona Fall League assignment and threw some tune up innings early during the 2018 fall instructional league, his stuff intact and ready for Arizona. Then he awoke one morning with soreness in his collarbone. After an MRI it was determined that Sixto would have to shut things down for a bit and head to Arizona quite late, so he was just shelved for the year. Sanchez has now missed time to injury in two consecutive seasons. In each year, he has often been given extended rest between starts and dealt with issues in his neck and collarbone area. That isn’t ideal and all else being equal, we’d rather have a pitching prospect without this kind of injury history. But all else isn’t equal when one lines up Sixto’s stuff and command, both of which are very advanced for a conversion arm so new to pitching, against the stuff and command of other minor league pitchers. This is one of the most talented pitching prospects on Earth, one with top of the rotation potential. He’s still only 20 so the fact that injuries have diluted his innings output isn’t a huge issue yet. Hopefully he has a healthy, robust 2019 and gets back on track to debut in 2020. Expand arrow_drop_down

18. Carter Kieboom , SS, WSN Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Walton HS (GA) (WSN) Age 21.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/55 55/60 40/60 50/45 40/45 60/60 He’s unlikely to stay at shortstop, but Kieboom will stay somewhere on the infield and his early-career performance suggests he’s going to get to much of his plus raw power in games. Kieboom entered 2018 with just 48 full-season games under his belt due to a nasty hamstring injury that cut short his promising 2017 campaign. He crushed Hi-A, hitting .298/.386/.494 and forcing a promotion to Double-A at age 20. Kieboom didn’t hit well during his two-month stay in Harrisburg and he didn’t look very good at shortstop in the Fall League, but he has performed much better than expected for a hitter who is the age of a college sophomore. He is going to stay on the infield, and has big, playable raw power, and we’re unconcerned about his late-season struggles. Kieboom’s hands work in a tight, explosive circle, which generates all-fields thump and enables Kieboom to catch up to premium velocity. He’s a little heavy-footed on defense but his arm plays on the left side of the infield and his mediocre range might be able to be hidden by modern defensive positioning. This is a complete player with a chance to hit in the middle of the order and also stay at shortstop, if not second or third base. That’s a potential All-Star. Expand arrow_drop_down

55 FV Prospects

19. Cristian Pache , CF, ATL Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (ATL) Age 20.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/50 50/55 20/45 70/70 70/70 70/70 An elite defensive center field prospect like Pache needs to do very little with the bat to be a good everyday player, and while his statistics leave much to be desired, he has flashed feel for contact and in-game raw power, just never both for any real length of time. If we told you a prospect seemed like an injury-independent lock to play elite outfield defense, how much offense would he have to provide to be a star-level player? The industry’s six-week look at Pache during the Arizona Fall League further cemented the belief that Pache has a great chance to be one of the, if not the, best defensive center fielders in baseball as soon as he arrives in Atlanta. He’s a plus to plus-plus runner with a great first step, and he has a knack for contorting his body in ways that enable him to make spectacular catches on flyballs that would otherwise fall in for tough-luck hits. He also has a 70-grade arm when he sets and throws properly, though at times he sacrifices velocity and accuracy in order to get rid of the ball more quickly, which isn’t always the right decision. Pache also has good bat-to-ball skills and solid average raw power, but the quality of his at-bats and his hitting mechanics both vary. His upside is enormous if everything comes together, and Pache just turned 20 years old, but there’s risk that the bat plays down because of Pache’s approach. If that’s the case, he might exist in the Hamilton/Pillar area of WAR production, but even a one-dimensional offensive profile likely results in star level production and because Pache is still just the age of a college sophomore, we anticipate growth in this area. Expand arrow_drop_down

20. Ke’Bryan Hayes , 3B, PIT Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) (PIT) Age 22.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/55 45/50 30/45 60/55 55/70 60/60 Hayes is an elite third base defender with contact skills who has performed through Double-A. It’s unclear if power will come, but if it does, Hayes will be a true five-tool player. The son of 13-year big leaguer Charlie Hayes, Ke’Bryan has a rare blend of skills that includes premium defense, plus speed, and an offensive profile structured much like his father’s. The younger Hayes was identified as a potential early-round pick pretty early in high school and eventually climbed to the back of the first round after a strong senior spring. He was drafted 32nd overall and signed for $1.8 million rather than head to Tennessee, where he and Nick Senzel would have played together for a year. Hayes has moved through the minors quickly and had a strong 2018 season at Double-A Altoona — .293/.375/.444 with an 11% BB%, 16.5% K%, 31 2Bs, 12 SB — in what would have been his draft year. He’s one of the best defensive third basemen in the minors and has progressed to become an above-average hitter, as well. A flat-planed swing and conservative hitting footwork are stifling the in-game power production. For Hayes, that’s fine. He does everything else. It’s possible the Pirates will try to coax more power of out him by tweaking either his footwork or by moving his hands, the latter of which feels riskier. Even without further offensive evolution, Hayes projects as an all-fields, league-average offensive threat with plus-plus defense. Expand arrow_drop_down

21. Dustin May , RHP, LAD Video Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Northwest HS (TX) (LAD) Age 21.4 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops 55/60 60/70 45/50 50/60 45/60 93-96 / 98 May has big time heat and a great breaking ball, both of which he commands. Other than changeup development, he’s a complete pitching prospect. May’s flamboyant ginger curls and Bronson Arroyo-esque leg kick are maybe the third and fourth most visually captivating aspects of his on-mound presence once you’ve gotten a look at his stuff. His mid-90s fastball plays up due to great extension, and further incorporation of a running two-seamer has given May’s heater enough tail to miss bats in the strike zone. His vertically-breaking slider (May calls it a slider, but it has curveball shape) has one of the better spin rates in the minors and enough vertical depth to miss bats against both left and right-handed hitters. It’s May’s out pitch, but he also has a developing cutter and its movement is a great foil for his two-seamer. After trying several different changeup grips in 2017, it seems like May is still searching for a good cambio, but his fastball and breaking ball command should suffice against lefties for now. The leg kick makes May slow to home and he may be vulnerable to the stolen base because of it, which forces him to vary his cadence home in an attempt to stymie runners. Now at Double-A, what was once a prospect with mid-rotation upside has become one with mid-rotation likelihood. Expand arrow_drop_down

22. MacKenzie Gore , LHP, SDP Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Whiteville HS (NC) (SDP) Age 20.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/55 45/50 50/55 50/60 45/60 91-95 / 97 Gore’s athleticism enables him to locate a bevy of good pitches despite a weird delivery that serves to disorient hitters. Blisters and fingernail issues were a minor problem during Gore’s 2017 pro debut, and shelved him three separate times throughout 2018. His stuff was intact when he pitched, his fastball resting mostly in the 92-94 range and topping around 96 during most of his starts, though he has peaked at 98. He is mechanically non-traditional, something Gore is able to maintain because he’s such a great athlete. As his front leg kicks up before he pedals toward the plate, so too does his glove and pitching hand, way up over his head, as if his mitt and knee are connected with an invisible wire. When Gore comes home, he drifts toward the first base side of the mound a bit, creating a unique angle on his pitches. And those pitches are good. Though he doesn’t have great natural ability to spin the ball, Gore’s over-the-top arm slot enables him to get tumble on his curveball anyway, he has very advanced changeup feel, and his slider is firm. He’ll be able to locate what he wants, where he wants for as long as he retains his top-of-the-scale athleticism. He may be on a bit of an innings count this year just because he only threw 66 innings in 2018, but otherwise he’s quite advanced and could move through the minors fairly quickly. Expand arrow_drop_down

23. Gavin Lux , 2B, LAD Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Indian Trail Academy HS (WI) (LAD) Age 21.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 25/55 55/60 40/55 55/55 50/55 45/45 Lux has suddenly grown into an enviable hit/power combination and has a middle infield defensive profile, though keep an eye on his throwing issues. Lux has become almost the inverse of what he was in high school. Drafted as a glove-first shortstop, he has developed throwing issues that we believe will push him to second base. His early-season onslaught at Rancho Cucamonga could have been interpreted as a Cal League mirage, but Lux continued to hit and hit for power at Double-A Tulsa after promotion and scouts have future plus grades on his raw power. Now much more physical and strong than he was when he was drafted, Lux is the latest Dodgers player to enjoy a beneficial swing change. His hands have become more active before they fire, and his swing has more lift now, resulting in a ground ball rate that fell from 52% in 2017 to 42% in 2018. His bat is quick enough to catch velocity up in the zone and Lux is strong enough to punish it. The changes haven’t had a negative impact on his feel for contact and he remains a selective hitter, as well. We’re somewhat concerned about the throwing issues but there’s middle infield speed and athletic ability here, and we hope those get ironed out because if they do, Lux could be an All-Star. Expand arrow_drop_down

24. Luis Urias , 2B, SDP Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Mexico (SDP) Age 21.7 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/65 20/35 40/45 50/50 50/55 50/50 Urias reached the majors last year amid some approach tweaks in an effort to coax more power from a profile that already has top-shelf feel for contact. He’s not likely an impact bat, but should be a well-rounded above-average regular at second base. Urias walked more than he struck out in every year of his pro career until 2018, when his K% rose all the way to 20%. Though he has always utilized a long, slow leg kick, Urias used to cut it down when he got into two-strike counts, something he no longer did last year, probably in effort to hit for more power. He still managed to slash .296/.398/.447 as a 21-year-old in the hitter-friendly PCL and reached San Diego in September. Even with minor tweaks, Urias isn’t likely to hit for anything more than doubles power, but he should continue to be a plus bat who adds value on the bases and in the field à la Joey Wendle or Cesar Hernandez. Expand arrow_drop_down

25. Brent Honeywell , RHP, TBR Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Walters State JC (TN) (TBR) Age 23.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Splitter Cutter Command Sits/Tops 60/60 50/55 60/65 55/55 45/50 45/55 92-94 / 97 Honeywell is back from Tommy John surgery and his plus stuff, headlined by his wacky curveball and wackier personality, is ready for his big league debut. Honeywell felt forearm tightness while throwing live batting practice to Wilson Ramos in late February, and five days later Dr. James Andrews was reconstructing his UCL. It was the first of several season-ending injuries Rays prospects would sustain early in the year, and it delayed Honeywell’s run at a potential Rookie of the Year award. A creative sequencer, Honeywell’s deep, unique repertoire is unlike any other pitcher in the minors. Though his fastball touches 98, his stuff is so diverse that he never has to pitch off of it. He can lob his curveball in for strikes, induce weak contact early in counts by throwing a cutter when hitters are sitting fastball, and he’ll double and triple up on the changeup. What you see listed in Honeywell’s tool grades as a splitter is actually a screwball. It wobbles home in the 79-82 mph range, while his true changeup is usually a little harder than that. The screwgie is more than a gimmick and can miss bats, though it’s best in moderation because it’s a little easier to identify out of his hand, and hitters are able to recognize it after seeing it multiple times in the same at-bat. Honeywell’s delivery is pretty violent and his TJ was not his first injury, but he’s ready and has No. 2 or 3 starter stuff if it comes back after the surgery. He has been throwing off a mound since early December and should be pitching in games before April is through. Expand arrow_drop_down

26. Vidal Brujan , 2B, TBR Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR) Age 21.0 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/60 45/50 30/45 65/65 50/60 55/55 Brujan is next in line behind Jose Altuve, Dustin Pedroia, and Ozzie Albies to fit the description of tiny, standout big league second baseman with shockingly loud tools. Indeed, of the current crop of similar prospects (Luis Urias and Nick Madrigal), Brujan’s tools are the loudest. Five years ago, Brujan was illiterate and living in extreme poverty in the Dominican Republic. Now he’s fluent in multiple languages and has grown so much as an athlete and ballplayer that we think he’d be in the conversation for the 2019 draft’s first pick were he a college player. If you’re willing to look beyond Brujan’s diminutive stature, he leaves nothing to be desired. He is an elite athlete with acute baseball instincts, a dynamic up-the-middle defensive profile, and mature feel for the strike zone. He has always been physical enough to make quality contact and fast enough to make an impact on the bases, but really began driving the ball in 2018 as his frame started to physically mature. He slashed .313/.395/.427 at Low-A before an August promotion to Hi-A, where he slugged a shocking .582. Aside from his size, Brujan’s profile is flawless and he has a chance to be a star. Expand arrow_drop_down

27. Jesus Luzardo , LHP, OAK Video Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Stoneman Douglas HS (FL) (WAS) Age 21.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 209 Bat / Thr L / L FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/55 55/60 50/60 45/55 92-95 / 98 Luzardo’s stuff spiked when he was a high school senior, then he broke, then the stuff came back, then he was traded and rocketed through the A’s system. He may end up with three plus pitches and plus command. The summer before his senior year of high school, Luzardo looked like a relatively unprojectable pitchability lefty, albeit an advanced one. His fastball was only in the 88-92 range at Area Codes, though his changeup and curveball were each above-average. He did not throw during the fall and instead devoted more time to working out. The following spring, with a new physique, Luzardo’s stuff was way up across the board, his fastball now sitting comfortably in the mid-90s, touching 97. Four starts into his senior season, Luzardo tore his UCL and need Tommy John. After most of the first three rounds of the 2016 draft had come and gone it seemed as though Luzardo might end up at the University of Miami. Four outings (including the one during which he broke) was not enough time for many teams to have high-level decision makers in to see him and take him early, but the Nationals (who have a history of drafting pitchers who have fallen due to injury) called his name and signed him for $1.4 million, a bonus equivalent to an early second rounder. Luzardo rehabbed as a National and continued to strengthen his body. When he returned the following summer, his stuff had completely returned. He made just three starts for the GCL Nats before he was traded to Oakland as part of the Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson deal. He has quickly climbed Oakland’s minor league ladder and reached Triple-A at age 20 in 2018. Those crafty pitchability traits from high school are still extant. Luzardo will vary the shape of his breaking ball — he can throw it for strikes to get ahead of hitters, he back foot it to righties — and he uses his changeup against lefties and righties. His delivery is a bit violent but it doesn’t inhibit his command, and Luzardo’s musculature seems better able to deal with the effort than it was when he was in high school. His fastball may not play like a mid-90s heater because he is undersized and a short-strider, but he locates it well enough to avoid getting hurt. He has mid-rotation upside and is abnormally polished. We may see him in Oakland this year. Expand arrow_drop_down

28. Brendan Rodgers , SS, COL Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Lake Mary HS (FL) (COL) Age 22.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/55 60/60 45/55 50/45 40/50 55/55 Rodgers has a chance to be an above average hitter with above average power who can play a passable shortstop, and he may be ready late in 2019. Rodgers stood out early in his high school career outside Orlando, FL as a regular on the showcase circuit who was often the best player on the field while also being the youngest player on the field at high profile events. He had mostly solid average tools and good feel through the middle of his prep career. Then in his senior year, the arm strength, raw power, and bat speed all became plus, and he was the odds on favorite to go first overall. But Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, and fellow Florida prep hitter Kyle Tucker all took steps forward in the spring, and the Rockies were able to get Rodgers third overall. In pro ball, Rodgers has benefitted form the Rockies’ affiliates being extreme hitters’ environments, which has mostly obscured in the surface stats the fact that Rodgers pitch selection is below average. It improved a bit in his second taste of Double-A in 2018, then became an issue again in his late-season promotion to Triple-A. He’s fringy at shortstop and is a fringy runner, so most scouts see him sliding over to second base long-term, but he’s good enough to play shortstop everyday if a club doesn’t have better options and focuses on shifting and positioning around him. There’s enough here that it’s likely Rodgers is a solid everyday player of some sort in 2020, but he may not be the star that some have anticipated. Expand arrow_drop_down

29. Michael Kopech , RHP, CHW Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Mt. Pleasant HS (TX) (BOS) Age 22.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 70/70 50/60 45/55 40/45 94-98 / 101 After years of wildness, Kopech suddenly had control of his power fastball/slider duo, then promptly blew out his elbow. We’ll see him again in 2020. Just as Kopech seemed to be harnessing his hellacious stuff, he blew out. In the seven minor league starts before his big league debut, Kopech walked just four batters, and he was similarly efficient in his first few big league outings. His velocity was down and the Tigers shelled him in his final start, and an MRI revealed Kopech would need Tommy John. The timing was particularly cruel, not just because things had started to click, but also because late-season TJs usually cost the pitcher all of next year; Kopech isn’t expected to be back until 2020. His stuff is great, headlined by a mid-90s fastball that often crests 100 mph. The command inroads Kopech made late in 2018 are especially important for his ability to deal with lefties, because his changeup feel is not very good. He’ll need to mix his two breaking balls together to deal with them, and his slider feel is way ahead of the curveball. So long as Kopech’s stuff returns, he has No. 3 starter ceiling if the command comes with it, and high-leverage relief ability if the latter does not. Expand arrow_drop_down

30. Casey Mize , RHP, DET Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Auburn (DET) Age 21.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 208 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Splitter Cutter Command Sits/Tops 60/60 50/55 55/60 60/65 50/55 92-96 / 97 Mize has a non-zero chance of turning into a version of Aaron Nola, and he’ll likely be big league ready in 2019. Mize was a midrange projection arm in high school and broke out on the Cape after his freshman year at Auburn. He looked like a mid-first rounder after his sophomore year and subsequent summer with collegiate Team USA, then took a giant leap forward in his draft spring, which led to Detroit taking him first overall. His command improved and he added an 87-90 mph cutter that quickly became a plus pitch, to pair with his mid-90’s fastball, above average slider, and plus splitter. After pitching for Team USA the summer before the draft, Mize got a PRP injection in his pitching elbow. Some teams had mild concerns about his shoulder in high school, and he also missed time a sophomore at Auburn with forearm tightness. Mize has some violence to his delivery and isn’t the prototypical projectable plus athlete you normally see at the top of the draft. There’s also some anecdotal evidence suggesting heavy cutter usage leads to diminished velocity. These are all things to make you wonder how Mize projects, but right now he may be able to pitch in the big leagues, with some mentioning Aaron Nola as the type of pitcher he could become. He doesn’t really fit Detroit’s timeline for contention, and may not be as good in his sixth year of control as he’ll be in his second, so many have openly wondered if Mize becomes a trade chip once he succeeds in the big leagues. That’s a good problem to have for a big league club in need of top shelf talent; Mize may give them that as soon as 2019. Expand arrow_drop_down

31. Jazz Chisholm , SS, ARI Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Bahamas (ARI) Age 21.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/45 50/55 40/55 55/55 50/55 55/55 Chisholm hit 25 homers and swiped 17 bags last year. His power/speed/position combination is rare, but his approach creates risk that he busts. Few infielders in the minors have Jazz’s bat speed, and even fewer have his swagger and flare. Though his high-effort hacks detract from his ability to make contact, Chisholm has shocking power for someone his size. When he really cuts it loose (which is often), he rotates with violence and explosion reminiscent of Javier Baez and, like Baez, Chisholm is a high-risk prospect whose all-or-nothing style of hitting might ultimately be his undoing. He has a one-note approach that mostly consists of him trying to ambush first-pitch fastballs. He’ll take some ugly swings when he’s cheating on a heater and instead gets something offspeed, though he has the bat control to put these balls in play if they’re near the zone. His strikeout rate (29% for his career) in undoubtedly a red flag, but because Chisholm is such a clean fit at shortstop (plus range, actions, and arm), he has some wiggle room on the offensive side, and shortstops with this kind of pop don’t exactly grow on trees. There’s star ceiling here, but also volcanic instability. Expand arrow_drop_down

32. Nick Madrigal , 2B, CHW Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Oregon State (CHW) Age 21.9 Height 5′ 7″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/70 45/45 40/45 70/70 55/60 50/50 Tiny Nick Madrigal looked like a star before a broken wrist injury last February. Now, we wait and see if post-draft concerns about his size, power, and durability were just due to the lingering effects of the injury or if they’re actual, long-term concerns. When Madrigal fractured his wrist during Oregon State’s second series of the year, he was hitting .560 (14-for-25) with two doubles, two homers, and three steals in three attempts. For two long weekends in Arizona he did everything. He crushed balls in all parts of the strike zone, ran plus-plus times to first base, and made several highlight reel defensive plays at second base. The wrist fracture kept him out for the rest of February, all of March, and most of April. When he returned, Madrigal kept hitting, but not for power, which is consistent with what plagues hitters for several months after they’ve had a break in the hand/wrist area. That trend continued through his first pro summer, which was interrupted by a hamstring issue, as Madrigal struggled to pull and/or lift the ball at all. He had a downward, slashing swing instead of the dynamic and athletic cut he’d had early in the year, when he could scoop and lift stuff at the bottom of the zone. But he kept making contact. It was a month before a pro pitcher was able to strikeout Madrigal, who only K’d in 3% of his pro plate appearances last year. It’s fair to make a distinction between prospects who are small, and ones who are just short. Jose Altuve is short, but is built like a little tank. Madrigal is small, a diminutive 5-foot-7, 165 pounds, and this, combined with his total lack of post-draft power, has the pro side of scouting very concerned. He looked tired and sluggish during instructional league, though it wasn’t as if he’d played a whole year and was an obvious candidate to be run down, furthering concerns that his size will be an issue. We’re inclined to believe there’s a substantial bounce-back on the horizon. He was the best draft-eligible hitter we saw last year, a complete player with few, if any, flaws. Expand arrow_drop_down

33. Austin Riley , 3B, ATL Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from DeSoto Central HS (MS) (ATL) Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/45 70/70 45/60 45/40 45/50 65/65 Riley has big power, solid performance, and improved defense at the hot corner, so now is his chance to fight for a spot on the 2019 Braves. Riley was a two-way high school player who many teams preferred as a pitcher, but the Braves preferred him as a hitter and liked him more than any other club, popping him rounds before most teams were prepared to draft him. That gamble has paid off. Braves personnel rave about Riley’s makeup and the strides he has made defensively, now projecting him as an average defender at third base after a lot of work on his footwork and keeping his strong frame nimble. He has an easy plus arm and plus plus raw power along with the contact skills to avoid being a huge strikeout type. What sort of hitter Riley becomes is more a matter of choice for him, but we think he’ll end up in the .250 average, with an average OBP and plus game power, meaning 25 homers or so annually. Expand arrow_drop_down

34. Chris Paddack , RHP, SDP Video Drafted: 8th Round, 2015 from Cedar Park HS (TX) (MIA) Age 23.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 60/60 45/50 60/70 50/60 92-96 / 98 Paddack wields arguably the best changeup in the minors and his fastball has big velo and tough plane, so it’s probably fine that his curveball is mediocre. Amateur scouting heuristics would not have expected Paddack be here. He was a high school draftee who was 19 and a half on draft day (draft models like young players), and had no feel for spin (something modern pitching research has determined isn’t a malleable trait). The Marlins signed him for $400,000 as an eight rounder and traded him to San Diego just over a year later in exchange for Fernando Rodney. The six starts Paddack made leading up to the deal were incredible. He had a 48:2 strikeout to walk ratio during that span, and he has continued to miss bats while filling up the strike zone since the Padres acquired him. He’d probably have been in the majors last year had Tommy John surgery not robbed him of more than a year of development (Paddack blew out in his third ever start as a Padres prospect). His stuff was fine when he returned last year, with his fastball up to 95 in his first extended spring training start back from injury, and he topped out at 98 this year. He’ll likely never have a great breaking ball, but as long as he locates it properly against righties, it will be enough. If there’s an 80 changeup in the minors, this is probably it, and plenty of starters have survived with heavy changeup use. Paddack’s fastball plays in the strike zone and he can make it sink if he wants to work down, so he shouldn’t run into any game theory-related issues due to a lack of repertoire depth because his stuff is just too good to hit when he locates it, even if you properly guess what’s coming. It’s rare for true aces to have such limited repertoires, and we think it’s more likely that Paddack develops into a 3-4 WAR starter than a demigod, the way his numbers might indicate. Expand arrow_drop_down

35. Sean Murphy , C, OAK Video Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Wright State (OAK) Age 24.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/55 55/55 40/50 20/20 50/55 70/70 Murphy could be big league ready in the second half of 2019, has a 70 arm, and there’s a shot he could be an above-average hitter with above-average power and defense. Once a walk-on at Wright State, Murphy has become one of the more well-rounded catching prospects in the minors. He has always had near elite arm strength but because he didn’t catch much pro-quality stuff in college, his receiving and ball-blocking were undercooked for a college prospect when he first entered pro ball. Those aspects of his defense have vastly improved, and he’s now an average defender with a chance to be above, and his arm douses opposing baserunners. Murphy also has plus raw power, though he hasn’t typically hit for it in games for various reasons. In college, a broken hamate likely masked his power and was part of the reason he fell to the 2016 draft’s third round. In pro ball, his swing has been very compact, relying on Murphy’s raw strength rather than efficient biomechanical movement to deliver extra-bases. He broke his other hamate last year. Murphy’s nearly .500 SLG at Double-A Midland is above what we expect moving forward, and instead think Murphy will be a high-contact bat with doubles power, which would be an above-average regular behind the plate. Expand arrow_drop_down

36. Michael Soroka , RHP, ATL Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Bishop Carroll HS (CAN) (ATL) Age 21.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/55 55/55 50/55 45/55 90-93 / 95 Soroka had an unfortunate shoulder injury in the middle of a successful major league debut, but indications are that he’s ready to pick up where he left off. Soroka is a former hockey defenseman who brings that mentality to the mound, attacking hitters with three above average pitches and command. He attacks the zone with a low-90s sinker down in the zone and is a pitch efficient starter who isn’t gunning for the strikeout. He’s also a shorter strider so his velocity plays down a bit, making his command and offspeed pitches even more important. Soroka’s changeup went from rarely used to a pitch that flashes plus in the last year or so, and his high-spin hybrid breaking ball has always been a trusted secondary pitch. He missed much of 2018 with a muscular issue in his shoulder, but was ready to pitch in the big leagues in September, hitting the mid-90s in simulated games and only staying out of competitive contents because of the Braves’ cautious approach to his rehab. Expand arrow_drop_down

37. Mitch Keller , RHP, PIT Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Xavier HS (IA) (PIT) Age 22.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 60/60 55/60 40/50 50/60 93-97 / 100 Keller is a near-ready sinker/curveball righty who probably won’t miss as many bats as you’d expect from just looking at his pitch grades. He should still be a mid-rotation starter. We think the slight uptick in Keller’s walk rate last year could just have been caused by an increased focus on changeup usage. His swinging strike rate took a dip when he reached Double-A despite having two clearly plus pitches: an upper-90s sinker and a curveball. It’s possible the two didn’t pair well together and that a better changeup, or a third pitch, will be needed in order to miss bats. Keller’s changeup did improve throughout 2018, but he walked more guys; we think that aspect of his profile will bounce back once development isn’t coloring his pitch usage. Keller avoided the DL all year after dealing with various injuries during each of the last three seasons. He projects as an above-average big leaguer starter who misses an average number of bats. Expand arrow_drop_down

38. Ian Anderson , RHP, ATL Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Shenendowa HS (NY) (ATL) Age 20.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/55 50/55 50/60 45/55 91-94 / 96 In two seasons, Anderson has progressed from upstate New York prep standout to Double-A without many speed bumps, with above average stuff and pitchability helping him project as a likely No. 3 or 4 starter. Anderson was a prep standout as an underclassman and despite some minor injuries in his draft year, was the third overall pick in 2016. The Braves got him for an under slot bonus that freed them up to grab Wentz, Muller, and Wilson for over slot bonuses; that group has worked out extremely well so far, especially considering how risky a subgroup prep pitching is. Anderson is the most advanced in terms of his combination of stuff now, command, and size, as evidenced by reaching Double-A at age 20 with excellent stats at every stop. He isn’t the sexiest prospect in terms of spin rates, so his command will need to continue to be a separator as the hitters he faces continue to get better. Anderson flashed a 60 curveball as an amateur but it’s more of a 55 now, while his changeup went from not being used much to flashing plus regularly, passing ahead of his curveball for some scouts. Expand arrow_drop_down

39. Kyle Wright , RHP, ATL Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Vanderbilt (ATL) Age 23.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/60 55/60 50/55 45/50 45/50 91-95 / 97 Wright starred at Vanderbilt, went fifth overall to Atlanta, and reached the big leagues a year later. He’s got all the elements you look for in a mid-rotation starter, and may be the type that throws his breaking ball close to 50% of the time, like Patrick Corbin does. Wright passed up seven figures from the Braves out of an Alabama high school to go to Vanderbilt and got many times more than that three years later as the fifth overall pick. He’s a near ideal combination of frame, arm action, delivery, athleticism, broad repertoire, and feel for pitching. Wright’s fastball is solid, but not a standout swing-and-miss pitch, though his slider often is. He mixes in a curveball and changeup that are tertiary options and his lower slot matches the sinker/slider combo a bit better. His best route to early big league success may be to lean on his breaking ball and throw it as often as his fastball, like Chris Archer or Patrick Corbin do. Given the Braves young pitching depth, there may not be a rotation spot for Wright, but his stuff and approach would definitely work in a multi-inning relief role until that spot is available. Expand arrow_drop_down

40. A.J. Puk , LHP, OAK Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Florida (OAK) Age 23.8 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / L FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 60/65 60/60 50/55 55/60 45/50 93-96 / 97 He was often frustrating at Florida, heavily reliant on velocity and a dominant slider while the rest lagged behind, but Puk seemed ready to ascend last year before he blew out his elbow. It’s counterintuitive to call a lefty with a plus slider and mid-90s velocity a ‘breakout’ candidate, but that’s exactly what Puk looked like during 2018 Spring Training before he tore his UCL and needed Tommy John. Puk was soft-bodied and relatively unathletic as an amateur, but he arrived to Mesa in good shape and his landing leg was more stable throughout his delivery, leading to superior command than he had had at Florida. Additionally, Puk dusted off his high school curveball and reintroduced it to his repertoire. His feel for it returned very quickly, and it was comfortably average near the end of spring and gave him a fresh way of starting off at-bats the second and third time through a lineup. His changeup was also better than it had been in college, and looked like a potential plus pitch. Scouts thought he had a chance to reach Oakland by year’s end, and a surprisingly competitive Oakland club would have been motivated to move him quickly. Puk has recently begun throwing bullpens and should be going full-tilt later in the spring. He appeared to have No. 2 or 3 starter upside before his injury. Expand arrow_drop_down

41. Joey Bart , C, SFG Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Georgia Tech (SFG) Age 22.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/45 60/65 45/55 40/40 50/55 60/60 Bart was the second overall pick out of Georgia Tech, and is now the heir apparent to Buster Posey‘s job in San Francisco. He may get there quickly due to his plus power, arm strength, athleticism, makeup, and defense, with the only real question being about his contact skills. Bart was a solid mid-tier prep prospect in the Atlanta suburbs who a couple of clubs really liked, but they ultimately couldn’t meet his price, pushing him to Georgia Tech. He made the leap between his sophomore and junior years, growing into his athleticism and developing plus raw power along with above average defensive tools and arm strength. The defensive tools are especially rare for a catcher of Bart’s size, as it’s much easier for a more compact-framed player to excel behind the plate. Bart has the rare ability to slow the game down defensively and scouts rave about his makeup, game calling, and game preparation. At the plate, Bart has big power and gets to it pretty often in games, particularly to his pull side, where he hit a majestic shot that was never found over the facade of the football complex in left field at Georgia Tech’s stadium. But while he is exceptional behind the plate, Bart doesn’t have the same ability to slow the game at it, however, with elevated strikeout rates in his draft year and just okay pitch selection. The bat speed is good and he doesn’t have trouble against velocity, and some scouts point to his solid pro debut as evidence that Bart was just frustrated by being pitched around and developed some bad habits in college. Since literally everything else you could want except for contact is already present, most assume that Bart will figure out a way to get to a 40 to 50 bat with above average game power and above average defense, even if it’s on the job in the big leagues in 2020. Expand arrow_drop_down

42. Luis Patino , RHP, SDP Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Colombia (SDP) Age 19.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 60/65 50/60 40/55 40/50 93-97 / 99 A premium on-mound athlete with elite makeup, Patiño has blossomed into one of the more exciting teenage arms on the planet in a very short span of time. Not long ago, Patiño was an undersized Colombian shortstop who would pitch once in a while. The Padres liked his athleticism enough to sign him and move him to the mound full-time. He’s added a full ten ticks to his fastball over the last two and a half years, and now is not only one of the best on-mound athletes in the minors, but a hard worker and team leader with infectious charisma. Patiño’s velocity came as he got in the weight room and added about 25 pounds. He was so dominant during his first few pro starts in the DSL that the Padres quickly pushed him stateside for the remainder of 2017, then to the Midwest League at age 18 the following year. Not only does Patiño have premium arm strength, but he has natural feel for spin, and is a curious learner who quickly actualizes instruction on the mound. He has already begun to vary the cadence of his delivery to mess with hitters’ timing, and has mapped aspects of MacKenzie Gore’s delivery to his own, just to see if it works for him. He’s still a little too confident with his breaking ball in the zone, but it’s hard not to expect an athlete with work habits like these (Patiño has already learned and is fluent in English) to get better at everything. You can go nuts projecting on his secondaries and command the same way scouts did with Hunter Greene when he was in high school, and Patiño’s breaking stuff is further along than Greene’s was at the same age. He likely won’t grow into more velo because the frame for that isn’t here, but he’s already got plenty of heat. Conservatively, Patiño has mid-rotation upside, but how the changeup and breaking ball command develop matter because that’s where there’s room for significant growth. Expand arrow_drop_down

43. Luis Robert , CF, CHW Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Cuba (CHW) Age 21.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/45 65/65 30/55 60/60 50/55 60/60 If we could trade bodies with one guy in the minors, it’d probably this guy. Robert is a toolshed who spent most of 2018 dealing with a thumb ligament issue, and much of his future is unclear due to issues with plate discipline and contact. More than a full year removed from all that intrigue and we still know relatively little about Luis Robert, largely due to a thumb ligament sprain LouBob dealt with throughout 2018. His signing with Chicago marked the end of a more lucrative era for young international players who are now subject to more tight-fisted rules capping bonus amounts. Despite a limited market due to the timing of his deal, Robert signed for $26 million thanks to his all-world physical gifts. The raw power and top-end speed were obvious in workouts, but unless teams scouted him in Series Nacional or during the Cuban National team’s annual CanAm League tour, little was known about his ability to hit big league-quality pitching, or what his instincts were like in center field. Because his thumb cost him April, May, and July (he re-aggravated it), it was hard to get extended looks during 2018 until Robert’s six-week stint in the Arizona Fall League (which was also interrupted by a hamstring issue). LouBob’s AFL stats were fine, but his swing path left him vulnerable to velocity on the inner half, and he too often expanded the zone. There’s doubt that he’ll get to all of his raw power in games, both due to the swing path and lack of plate discipline, but it isn’t as if he’s had time to make proper adjustments yet, and the pitching he saw in Arizona was the best he’s seen in his life. The ceiling is the same as it was purported to be before he signed: power, speed, offensive performance similar to Carlos Gomez‘s best years. There’s just more risk that Robert doesn’t get there. Expand arrow_drop_down

44. Adonis Medina , RHP, PHI Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 22.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/60 50/60 50/60 40/50 92-95 / 97 Medina will show you three plus pitches and easily has mid-rotation upside if he can do so consistently. He mixed several nuclear meltdown starts into what was otherwise an impressive 2018. Medina is right there with Sanchez in the Phillies system when it comes to upside. He shows three plus pitches at times and may be a better athlete than Sanchez, so the elements of frontline starter potential are here. Medina works in the mid-90’s early in games with plus life and at his best, he’ll pair it with a changeup with similar action and a slider that can play even better than 60 when ideally used and located. Like most young power arms, Medina’s command and velocity degrade in the middle innings as his focus and intensity wane and fatigue starts to set in. More advanced hitters can lay off his lively stuff when it’s more area-type control than MLB-level pitch execution. Scouts like Medina’s makeup, coachability, and athleticism (most prefer him to Sanchez in this regard) and expect him to continue to improve in these areas. Expand arrow_drop_down

45. Alex Reyes , RHP, STL Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (STL) Age 24.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 70/70 45/50 60/70 55/60 40/50 93-97 / 101 Reyes’ elite stuff belongs in the 60 FV tier, but constant injury has increased the likelihood that he ends up a reliever, at least for a while. We erroneously peeled Reyes off this list during the summer. When he departed his May 30 start after four innings, he had thrown exactly 50 career frames. The MLB rule for rookie eligibility states that it has been exceeded when a pitcher has thrown more than 50 innings, so he’s technically still eligible. Reyes has developed amid constant setbacks. He had a shoulder injury in 2015, a marijuana suspension that spanned the 2015 Fall League and start of the 2016 season, underwent Tommy John later in 2016 and then suffered a right lat ligament detachment in his first big league start back from TJ in 2018. The surgery to reattach his ligament took place in early June, which, with a six month recovery, means Reyes should be ready for 2019. Healthy Reyes is one of the best arm talents on the planet. His fastball will sit 93-97 and hover near 100 out of the bullpen. He’ll also show you a plus changeup and curveball. His feel for each can be inconsistent, which is understandable given how little he has pitched over the last three years. If fully realized, Reyes has top of the rotation stuff. It’s unclear how St. Louis will usher Reyes along next spring, both as far as his role and workload are concerned. He has the stuff to be a dominant multi-inning or high-leverage relief arm should the Cardinals think he’s more likely to stay healthy that way. His innings total will likely need to be manicured somehow, and perhaps that’s the way to go about building Reyes back up even if the org considers him a traditional starter long term. Expand arrow_drop_down

50 FV Prospects

46. Brandon Lowe , 2B, TBR Video Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Maryland (TBR) Age 24.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/50 55/55 45/55 50/50 40/45 45/45 Lowe’s 2018 sample of big league at-bats was large enough to draw some real conclusions about his skillset. His power and feel for lift are both legit, and he’s due for some helpful BABIP regression. Lowe (pronounced with a vowel sound like ‘plow’ or ‘allow’) was an under-the-radar, bat-first prospect at Maryland who the Rays picked in the third round. He has always been a second baseman but was never the pedigree type given his position and average at best speed, defense, and arm. He also tore his ACL as a freshman. His indicators were positive–plate discipline, contact skills, bat speed, enough power to profile–and we were high on Lowe entering the year, pegging him as a 45 FV. He went off in 2018, following a fine Double-A look in 2017 by demolishing the level in 2018, then performing even better at Triple-A, earning a big league look, where he put up almost 1.0 WAR in just 43 games. The offense has taken off even more than those highest on him internally had expected, with some chance for 50 hit and 60 game power with passable defense at second, along with versatility to play left field and possibly first base if needed. Lowe is now in the weird prospect spot where he isn’t the highly-drafted, tooled-up brand name type you typically find in the middle of a top 100, but he’s about as low risk of a bat as there is with prospect eligibility, and he can also play up the middle, so his six years of control have tons of value to a small market team like the Rays. Expand arrow_drop_down

47. Danny Jansen , C, TOR Video Drafted: 16th Round, 2013 from West HS (WI) (TOR) Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/55 55/55 40/45 30/30 45/50 40/40 Jansen’s 2018 was confirmation that his 2017 breakout was real, and he does enough to stay behind the plate. He’s at least a solid everyday catcher, perhaps a bit more. A 2017 Jansen breakout coincided with good health and a pair of prescription lenses. He walked more than he struck out across three minor league levels, and rose to Triple-A and into our overall top 100. He had a similarly strong 2018, which included a Futures Game invite, a .390 OBP at Triple-A, and then a strong 30-game big league stint in August and September, all reinforcing that Jansen’s 2017 breakout was legitimate. A solid if unspectacular defender, Jansen’s pop times were depressed during his big league cameo, hovering between 2.05 and 2.10, both below average for a catcher. But he’s an average receiver and ball-blocker, and is a perfectly acceptable defensive catcher without a disqualifying shortcoming. Where Jansen shines is in the batter’s box. His hands work in a tight loop, giving Jansen the capacity to catch velocity and still lift the baseball, and he’s strong enough to muscle out balls to his pull-side, though to this point his approach has yielded more doubles than homers. He is a pull-only plodder and he’ll likely always be a low BABIP guy, and it’s possible major league pitchers will find ways to attack him in ways that limit his power output, but he’s going to make a lot of contact and reach base, which, at catcher, could make him an All-Star. Expand arrow_drop_down

48. Peter Alonso , 1B, NYM Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Florida (NYM) Age 24.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/50 80/80 55/70 30/30 40/40 50/50 Alonso has elite raw power and lead the minors in homers last year. He is not a good defensive first baseman and may be the primary beneficiary if the universal DH is instituted. Alonso followed up a breakout 2017 with a minor league leading 36-home run 2018 campaign split between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A launching pad Las Vegas. In addition to clubbing the most home runs, Alonso hit some of 2018’s loudest individual blasts. He had the most prolific batting practice session at the Futures Game, then threatened a passing satellite with a titanic seventh-inning homer off of a grooved, 95 mph Adonis Medina fastball. He exceeded Mets Statcast-era records on a ball in play in the Arizona Fall League, out-hit Vlad Guerrero, Jr. during Fall Stars BP, then homered the opposite way off a 103 mph Nate Pearson fastball in the game. This is what top-of-the-scale, strength-driven raw power looks like, and it drives an excellent version of a profile we’re typically quite bearish on: the heavy-bodied, right/right first baseman. Alonso is tough to beat with velocity because his swing is compact and even when he’s a little late, he’s capable of muscling mis-hit balls out the other way. After some adjustment, Fall League pitching chose to attack him beneath the knees, and well-located pitches down there were successful, but Alonso crushes mistake breaking balls that catch too much of the zone. We think a typical Alonso season will look like something between what C.J. Cron and Jesus Aguilar did last year, depending on whether the 2018 uptick in Alonso’s walk rate holds water or not. He makes some nice effort-based plays at first base, but as a feet and hands athlete, Alonso is well below average. Perhaps more notable than what we anticipate will be several years of mashing in the heart of the Mets lineup, Alonso is a favorite to become the poster child for player compensation reform. Already near the center of public discourse regarding teams’ suppression of prospect promotion, Alonso is 24 years old and has a skillset and body type at heightened risk to enter physical decline relatively early. With his early-career earning power stifled by his parent club, Alonso might start to show signs of physical regression during his arbitration years and also struggle to find a lucrative market in free agency. His free agency is timed awkwardly between what will probably be the next two CBA negotiations, but otherwise the circumstances indicate his situation could one day be a focal point for change. Expand arrow_drop_down

49. Drew Waters , CF, ATL Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Etowah HS (GA) (ATL) Age 20.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 183 Bat / Thr S / R FV 50 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/60 55/60 30/50 60/55 45/50 60/60 Waters has a rare skillset, with 55 or 60 tools across the board. He reached Hi-A as a teenager with a breakout 2018 campaign. Waters was the rare prep prospect who had present hit tool utility, top-of-the-line prep performance, and 55- or 60-grade supporting tools to give him both high certainty and some ceiling. He got lost in the shuffle a bit in his deep draft class and had a tough pro debut due to both fatigue and swing tinkering. His full season debut in 2018 was a smashing success; he demolished the Low-A Sally League and posted a 98 wRC+ in High-A as a teenager. Waters’ raw power is a 55 that will likely be a 60 as he fills out, and his speed is a current 60 that likely becomes a 55. His center field instincts are above average, so he’s still got a solid chance to stick at the position and his arm is an easy plus. Waters’ carrying tool is his bat and he regained an approach that works for him in 2018. His exciting combination of physical projection, now ability, and ceiling will give him upward mobility in the Top 100 with a strong start to 2019. Expand arrow_drop_down

50. Corbin Martin , RHP, HOU Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Texas A&M (HOU) Age 23.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/55 55/60 45/55 40/50 93-95 / 96 There was a lot of talk about relief risk while Martin was at Texas A&M but that has completely stopped, and he now projects as a No. 3 or 4 starter. Martin was a solid two-way performer in high school who hadn’t quite grown into his frame yet when he got to Texas A&M. By the summer after his sophomore year, Martin was flashing three TrackMan-friendly plus pitches and starter traits in the Cape Cod League, but he only started 16 games in College Station due to a deep veteran staff and his own inconsistency. The Astros popped him in the second round in 2017, hoping to tease out the guy they saw on the Cape and in the last 18 months, they’ve done just that. Martin sits in the mid-90s, mixes in a plus slider, with an above average changeup and average command. He still doesn’t post the strikeout rates that you’d assume from a possible No. 2 or 3 starter in the Astros farm system, which annually leads the minors in strikeouts in part because they know how to coach pitchers to make the most of their stuff. Sources with knowledge in this area indicate that Martin should see more K’s in 2019 if he can make a couple subtle adjustments to how he uses his pitches and fully unlock his potential, which could lead to a big league look at the end of 2019 if the vaunted Astros pitching staff has an open spot. Expand arrow_drop_down

51. Hunter Greene , RHP, CIN Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Notre Dame HS (CA) (CIN) Age 19.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 197 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 70/80 50/55 40/45 45/55 40/60 95-98 / 103 Build a pitching prospect in a laboratory and the result is Greene, who has elite arm strength and athleticism. He was developing better secondary stuff, but his season ended prematurely due to an elbow sprain. Greene is a generational on-mound athlete whose 2018 season ended with an elbow sprain. A strong two month run of starts in the early summer culminated in a 7-inning shutout start (2 H, 0 BB, 10 K, it took 69 pitches) on July 2 at Lake County followed by his feat of strength at the Futures Game. Eleven days later, Greene’s season was over. He had a PRP injection and rehabbed the sprained UCL in Arizona with broad plans to start throwing during the winter and so far, he seems on track for spring training. Greene’s development was already pretty likely to be slow. He was able to throw strikes with that upper-90s fastball in high school, but his breaking ball was just okay, and he had no use for a changeup, so both of his secondary pitches were behind other pitchers in the class. Teams needed to project heavily on Greene’s stuff to buy him as a top five pick, but he’s such an exceptional athlete and success-oriented person that many of them did. Focusing solely on pitching for the first time, Greene’s slider improved in 2018. His ceiling will be dictated by the continued development of his secondary stuff. Expand arrow_drop_down

52. Andres Gimenez , SS, NYM Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (NYM) Age 20.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/55 40/45 30/45 60/55 50/55 55/55 More skilled and polished than he is toolsy, Gimenez has been pushed up the minor league ladder aggressively and performed. He perceived ceiling is not that high. While evaluations of his defense are universally strong, assessments of Gimenez’s bat vary significantly depending on when he was seen. He looked like a well-rounded, first-division player while he was hitting with pleasantly surprising power (.282/.343/.432 with 30 extra-base hits in 85 games) at Hi-A St. Lucie during the season’s first half, but like much less of one during a rough six weeks in the Arizona Fall League. In Fall League, Gimenez looked physically overmatched at the plate, likely due to exhaustion. He was still 19 when the Mets promoted him to Double-A for the season’s final six weeks, and his sophomoric body had endured a 122-game season against older, more physically developed athletes before he had even set foot in Arizona. It’s fair to project Gimenez to add strength, but because his frame is small, it’ll probably be just the kind of strength that gives him season-long stamina, not huge raw power. But while big raw power is unlikely, if his feel for contact is refined in a way that prioritizes lift, it’s possible that Gimenez will end up hitting for more power than we project in the same way Ozzie Albies has. Gimenez has excellent natural bat control and can pull his hands in to get the barrel on pitches that would jam other hitters, and he has feel for fully extending on balls away from him and roping them into the opposite-field gap. If he does, he might end up hitting a ton of doubles and out-slug our projections without hitting a lot of home runs, or he may naturally start lifting the ball like Albies did. In general, we like Gimenez as an above-average defensive middle infielder with advanced contact skills. We think he’ll be a solid-average everyday player, and while we think it’s unlikely, we can see a developmental path that leads to better production than that. Expand arrow_drop_down

53. Luis Garcia , SS, WSN Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (WSN) Age 18.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/60 50/55 30/45 55/55 45/50 55/55 See Gimenez, Andres. In the Nationals’ budget-busting 2016 international signing class, Garcia ($1.3 million) was the lesser-paid and, until close to signing day, lesser-regarded prospect when compared to Yasel Antuna ($3.9 million). Antuna looked like one of the top players in the class early, tailed off a bit, and then began improving in pro ball, whereas Garcia was a smaller kid with solid tools and advanced feel who slowly developed above average tools after Washington had locked him up at a lower price. Garcia has fi