The scientist who predicted Donald Trump's US election victory has claimed far-right candidate Marine Le Pen could win the French election because of voter abstention.

French physicist Serge Galam has said the National Front leader could benefit from her hard-core following who will ensure they turn out to back her.

By contrast, a substantial number of people who said they would vote for her rival may not actually go to the polls, he claimed.

A French scientist has predicted that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win the election

Mr Galam, a researcher with the French National Centre for Scientific Research, said: 'Obviously nothing is done yet but her election is becoming very likely.

I'm taking a scientific view of this. She needs a turnout differential of about 20 per cent to win.'

Only the two top candidates in the April 23 opener go on to the May 7 runoff.

Current opinion polls put the two front-runners - centrist Emmanuel Macron and Le Pen - in the mid-20s, ahead of Socialist Benoit Hamon, his hard left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon and embattled Thatcherite Francois Fillon.

Many conservative voters might refrain from voting for Macron because they regard him as a natural heir to President Francois Hollande

Mr Galam said that, unlike the other candidates, Le Pen might benefit from a committed voter base.

By contrast, many left-wing voters will be reluctant to back Fillon whose campaign has been dogged by the fake jobs scandal.

At the same time many conservative voters might refrain from voting for Macron because they regard him as a natural heir to President Francois Hollande.

Indeed Nicolas Sarkozy's former adviser Henri Guaino said he would rather 'go fishing' when asked to choose between Le Pen and Macron in the second round.

SOCIALIST PARTY IN TATTERS France's governing Socialist party was in tatters Thursday after former prime minister Manuel Valls spurned the party's official presidential candidate and instead backed independent centrist Emmanuel Macron. Valls' endorsement of Macron seals the rift between what the former premier has described as 'two irreconcilable lefts' - one still wedded to the class struggle, represented by presidential nominee Benoit Hamon, and another reformist camp led by Valls. Successive Socialist leaders managed to hold the party together but under President Francois Hollande the tacit non-aggression pact between the two factions broke down, leaving the party in disarray. Le Parisien newspaper said Valls' repudiation of Hamon - a leftist rebel who quit the government in 2014 over its pro-business policies - was the 'nail in the coffin' of the party. Advertisement

Speaking to Politico, Mr Galam explained: 'What is new in the next election is that for the first time, a certain number of future anti-National Front voters of the second round will have decided to reluctantly, with aversion for such and such a challenger.

'To prevent the National Front win, they will force themselves to make a choice that will displease them, but then it is quite likely that many will 'enjoy' the slightest 'good excuse' for at the last moment not to go.

'One can therefore make the realistic hypothesis that there will be more abstentions for the challenger of Le Pen than for her.

'And it is then possible to calculate the differential of abstention necessary to compensate the distance to 50 per cent of the voting intentions for Le Pen.'

He added: 'I am not making a prediction or saying this is definitely going to happen. What I'm pointing out is that there is an enormous zone where Le Pen wins.

'I had intended not to vote, but now I will. I hope this study will open people's eyes to the fact that not voting is as good as supporting Marine Le Pen in the second round.'

The latest poll by Ipsos Sopra Steria said Le Pen would have the most votes in the first round - at 25 per cent - compared to 24 per cent for Macron and 18 per cent for Fillon.

But the poll said the centrist would go on to resoundingly beat Le Pen in the two-way decider vote on May 7, with 62 per cent compared to 38 per cent.