Businesses appear spooked by the president’s capricious trade policy. Moody’s Analytics’ global business confidence survey, which asks respondents nine questions about their operations, is as weak as it has been since the economy began its ascent out of the financial crisis a decade ago. Duke University’s quarterly survey of CFOs is even more pessimistic, with about two-thirds of respondents saying a recession is likely by the end of 2020. And Morgan Stanley’s business conditions index, which is designed to capture turning points in the economy, suffered its largest one-month decline on record in May.