David Paleologos

Special to USA TODAY

The Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll released Tuesday shows us two Donald Trumps: the economic leader and the social divider.

For the first time in many years, voters see the country moving in the right direction, 46% to 43%, a net positive of +3. According to Real Clear Politics, you have to go back more than a thousand national polls, to 2009, to find +3 or better.

Strangely enough, it makes sense. The poll was fielded immediately after Trump’s address to Congress last week, which received positive reviews from political analysts on the left and right. Following the speech, CNN’s Democratic analyst Van Jones said, “That was one of the most extraordinary moments you have ever seen in American politics.”

Even more impressive was that 55% of registered voters believe that Trump has shown leadership in his first 40 days in office. This question may be a response to his focusing on policy and issuing executive orders right out of the gate, in contrast to a Congress that historically moves slowly and suffers from a 52% unfavorable rating, according to the poll.

Speaking of 52%, the poll tells us that over 52% of registered voters said they believe the United States is in an economic recovery. While that may not seem like a milestone finding, it actually is. Back in September, only a third of voters chose economic recovery from a list of responses to a question about the state of the economy. In December, the number swelled to 43%, but it never rose to or above 50%, despite repeated claims by economists that the Great Recession ended in March 2009. These findings mirror the trajectory of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has broken all-time highs during that same time frame.

And there is connectivity within these numbers. Among those voters who said the U.S. economy is in recovery, Trump’s numbers for showing leadership rose to 63%.

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Looks like a pretty picture for the new president, right? Not exactly. That’s just about where registered voters draw the proverbial line in the sand.

Voters seem to be experiencing tweet fatigue. Over 59% said that Trump should stop tweeting so much, while 28% said Trump’s tweets are a good way for him to communicate directly with Americans.

Trump’s tweet rationale is rooted in his disdain for the media, and, although the media is disliked in the poll by 50% of respondents, 59% of voters disagree with Trump’s claim that journalists and the media are the enemy of the American people, while 34% agree.

And when it comes to Trump’s temperament, 60% of voters disapprove, while 30% approve, according to the poll.

On issues, voters are sending Trump a strong message: no cuts to Social Security and Medicare (72%). On immigration, 63% want so-called DREAMers — young people who were brought here illegally as children — protected from deportation, a continuation of an Obama administration policy.

The issue of Russian meddling in the U.S. elections does not sit well with voters either. Over 63% say the issue is very or somewhat serious, while 31% said it is not very or not at all serious. And when voters were asked whether there should be an outside, independent investigation into the allegations of contacts between Russia and Trump associates during the campaign, 58% supported it and 35% did not.

So the poll takes us back to Trump’s strongest suit: the economy and how he regularly cites the Dow’s unprecedented and historic rise since his election. Under Barack Obama, the Dow more than doubled, from roughly 8800 to around 19,500 at the time of Trump’s election. But the savvy ex-president never made repeated references to the Dow during his administration until he knew there was not enough time to lose all those stock market gains before the end of his presidency.

Trump doesn’t seem to care. Just 40 days in, he continues to boast about investors’ confidence in him. But March 9 marks the eighth full year of the “bull” run in the stock market, the second longest in history. Can Trump rely on this market to buoy his popularity for the next four or eight years without a correction or crash?

According to exit polls last November, white voters — who have more wealth stored in 401(k)s and retirement plans than any other group — voted for Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton 58% to 37%. One has to wonder how big that margin might be in 2020 if they see their personal wealth shrink substantially due to a serious market correction.

David Paleologos is director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.