Senate

● MN-Sen-B: While Sen. Al Franken has not yet specified exactly when he'll resign from office, he now says that he expects Lt. Gov. Tina Smith, who was named as Franken's successor by Gov. Mark Dayton last week, to fill his seat in early January.

Smith is running in the November special election for the final two years of Franken's term, and Minnesota's House delegation quickly consolidated behind her. So far, the only Democrat who's floated a challenge to Smith is state Sen. Melisa Franzen, whom the Associated Press' Kyle Potter describes as a "moderate Democrat from a swing district." Franzen says she plans to decide at the end of the year, but she doesn't sound especially enthused about such a bid. "I think Minnesotans like to elect their leaders rather than have something … decided for them," said Franzen. "I am debating whether I want to go through that process, especially because [Smith] does have a lot of support." Franzen also said she is considering running in 2020, when the seat will be up again for a full six-year term.

Smith herself has only run for office once, when she was Dayton's running mate in his successful 2014 re-election bid. However, she's no political neophyte. Notably, Smith stepped in to jumpstart Walter Mondale's Senate campaign in 2002 after Democratic incumbent Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash shortly before the election. Mondale narrowly lost, but Smith was credited with taking charge in an incredibly tough situation. Smith later served as executive director of Planned Parenthood's regional affiliate before serving as chief of staff to Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak and then to Dayton before he picked her to be his running mate.

However, Smith has shown some hesitation to run for office in her own right. There were rumors for months in 2013 that Smith, who by then was working for Dayton, would run to succeed Rybak when he retired that year but she never sought to do so. And after Smith became lieutenant governor and Dayton made it clear he wouldn't seek a third term in 2018, he spent years helping her boost her profile ahead of what appeared to be a likely campaign to succeed him. But in March, Smith surprised the political world when she announced she wouldn't run for governor. She said at the time that the 2016 election, where Minnesota went from a wide 53-45 Obama victory to just a 46-45 Clinton scrape, had "turned everything on its head" and concluded that her path to the governorship would be a "difficult" one.

Indeed, after Franken announced he would resign, Dayton reportedly wanted to appoint Smith to the seat, but those same stories also said that Smith wasn't interested in running in next year's special election. However, the Washington Post reported that Senate Democrats, unhappy at the prospect of a caretaker, pressured Dayton to pick someone who would campaign for the rest of the term, and Smith decided to run after all. As we wrote last week, if Smith is only running reluctantly in what will likely be a tough general election, that's a bit unnerving. However, Smith is well connected, and if she's going to give the race her all, she could be a formidable candidate.

● TN-Sen: Army veteran James Mackler recently dropped out of the Democratic primary for Senate following the entry of former Gov. Phil Bredesen into the race, and on Friday, Mackler endorsed Bredesen. The governor faces no notable primary rivals and is on track to serve as Team Blue's nominee in this deeply Republican state.

Gubernatorial

● AL-Gov: Good news, Alabamians: You've got another statewide election coming! Republican Kay Ivey ascended from the lieutenant governorship to the top job in the spring when incumbent and fellow Republican Robert Bentley finally bowed to reality and resigned after allegedly using state resources to cover up an affair with a staffer, and until recently, it looked like Ivey was the clear favorite to win the crowded June GOP primary. However, AL.com's Josh Sharp examines a new question that's suddenly on a lot of minds: Will the fallout from Democrat Doug Jones' win against Roy Moore damage Ivey's own election prospects?

Right now, there are no easy answers, but Sharp notes that Ivey's actions throughout the Senate race pissed off power players on both sides of the aisle. While Bentley, who appointed Luther Strange to the seat, had set the special election for the remainder of Jeff Sessions' term for November of 2018, Ivey rescheduled it for December of this year, ultimately giving Democrats an opening at an odd and unpredictable time.

And with Jones now victorious, plenty of Republicans are blaming Ivey for giving Moore a chance to beat Strange in the primary and for Jones to take a seat they thought was theirs for life. Local political columnist and former GOP legislator Steve Flowers summed up the situation: "The whisper campaign and talk among Republicans who have been around the machinery ... is that they think she hurt the party," and national Republicans haven't hidden how angry they are with Ivey for not just leaving the electoral calendar alone.

Ivey's statements during the general election also could cause her problems. Ivey infamously said that she had no reason not to believe the women accusing Moore of predatory behavior but planned to vote for him anyway because it was better to have a Republican in that Senate seat, which horrified not only Democrats but also conservatives who ended up backing Jones. And the day after the election, Ivey refused to reveal who she actually had voted for by saying, "It's not important what one person votes for," which won't make Moore fans happy or appease anyone else. However, it remains to be seen how much these issues actually resonate with GOP primary voters.

One potentially huge wildcard is Moore himself, who doesn't appear interested in conceding the special election anytime soon. Moore has a legion of Republican voters who worship him and have convinced themselves he's the subject of a smear campaign. If Moore goes after Ivey, it could make a difference in a primary. Indeed, a few observers have wondered if Moore himself will enter the gubernatorial race himself, though so far, he hasn't hinted he will.

It's all a considerable change from just a few months ago, when Ivey seemed to be on a glide path through the primary. In September, Ivey released a poll showing her leading Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle 66-11, with the rest of the field barely registering, and no one ever released contradictory numbers. And while Ivey waited until late summer to begin raising money, she very quickly made up for lost time. Ivey currently has a $1.9 million to $1.2 million cash-on-hand edge over Battle, while state Sen. Bill Hightower is a distant third with $585,000 in the bank. Alabama requires candidates to report their fundraising numbers every month, so we'll soon have a better sense as to whether disgruntled donors are now giving the cold shoulder to Ivey. One important note is that there will be a July runoff if no one takes a majority in June's primary, so Ivey can't just coast to a plurality win.

While the GOP nominee will be favored to keep the governor's mansion red no matter what happens, the prospect of a Democratic victory next year doesn't look as unlikely as it did just a week ago. Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox faces a primary against ex-state Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb. While Cobb was one of the last Democrats to win statewide before Tuesday, she has an uneasy relationship with Democratic groups, particularly after she resigned from the bench in 2011, which allowed Bentley to pick her replacement. Maddox, who has been mentioned as a Democratic rising star for years, has a small $152,000 to $138,000 cash-on-hand lead over Cobb, though both war-chests are well behind what the GOP frontrunners have. Of course, the Senate campaign has been the priority for donors for months, so we'll see if Jones' win helps Democrats bring in more cash ahead of another tough race.

● KS-Gov: On Friday, state Sen. Laura Kelly announced she was joining the Democratic primary, making her the first woman to enter the race. Kelly is close to ex-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, who served from 2003 until she resigned to become Obama's secretary of Health and Human Services in 2009, and the Kansas City Star's Bryan Lowry writes that she likely will have the same fundraising network as Sebelius. Kelly won re-election last year 52-48 as her Topeka-area seat went from 52-45 Romney to 53-40 Trump, so she has some experience winning tough races.

Kelly has been an outspoken critic of outgoing GOP Gov. Sam Brownback's tax cuts, which ended up devastating the state economy, and Democrats are hoping that Brownback's toxic legacy will give them a big opening in this very red state. However, wealthy independent Greg Orman, who was the de facto Democratic nominee in the 2014 Senate race, has formed an exploratory committee, and Democrats are very worried he could help the GOP hold the governor's mansion. Still, it may be an encouraging sign that Kelly decided to get in even after Orman set his sights on this contest. Kelly joins former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, state House Minority Leader Jim Ward, and former state Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty in the primary, making this the first time Kansas Democrats have had a contested primary for governor since 1998.

Several Republicans are also competing to succeed the extremely unpopular Brownback, including Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer. Months ago, Trump tapped Brownback to server as his ambassador for religious freedom, and if he's confirmed by the Senate, Colyer would become governor before the 2018 primary. However, Brownback's nomination appears stalled in the Senate, and he says he won't resign until he's confirmed. This has created a very awkward situation at home: Colyer is putting together a proposal for the next state budget and is even making new appointments to the state cabinet, but Brownback still nominally remains governor. A few Republican legislators have even admitted they're not sure who's really in charge of the state, with state Senate Budget Chair Carolyn McGinn outright saying, "I can't really pick up the phone and get any real decisive answers to anything in particular."

● MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA takes a look at a hypothetical general election matchup between former state Senate Democratic Leader Gretchen Whitmer and GOP Attorney General Bill Schuette and … holy undecided, Batman! They give Schuette a 38-35 lead, with 35 percent of voters saying they have yet to make up their minds. Back in August, EPIC showed a 35-35 tie. Several other candidates are running in both primaries, but Schuette and Whitmer look like the frontrunners.

● NE-Gov: Back in October, Nebraska Democratic Chair Jane Kleeb said that, while the state party would field a candidate against GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts, the eventual nominee could drop out of the general election and become independent state Sen. Bob Krist's running mate. The idea didn't sit well with several Nebraska Democrats, and Kleeb has now announced that the party won't back Krist, who left the GOP this year, even unofficially. Kleeb declared, "It's not my job to make sure Krist has a path to beat Ricketts. I'm not the chair of his unnamed party. If he wants to become a Democrat, our door is wide open."

The incredibly wealthy Ricketts doesn't look vulnerable even under the best of circumstances, and until recently, no notable Democrat had shown any interest in facing him. But on Friday, Omaha community activist Vanessa Ward announced she was forming an exploratory committee for a possible bid and expects to announce after the holidays. Ward formed a community block party in her neighborhood two decades ago after a man was killed in front of her house, and she's been locally celebrated for her work in an area she said used to be "gang-ridden, drug-infested, high crime." Ward even has a street named for her, and she received the key to the city from GOP Mayor Jean Stothert in 2014. Ward would very much be a longshot if she enters the race for governor, but she at least would give Team Blue a noteworthy candidate who could motivate Democrats to turn out.

If Ward doesn't end up running, though, Kleeb sounds ready to take one for the team. Before Ward made her announcement, Kleeb said that if an experienced candidate doesn't come forward, she would put her own name on the ballot. However, Kleeb said if she did run, she wouldn't mount a serious bid and would instead support Democrats seeking other offices.

● NY-Gov: Former Erie County Executive Joel Giambra has reportedly been considering entering the GOP primary against Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and he seems quite serious about it. On Wednesday, Giambra resigned from his job at a lobbying firm "to concentrate full time on trying to secure the Republican endorsement." As we've written before, Giambra didn't exactly leave office on a high note during the last decade. In 2005, the state appointed a financial control board in 2005 to monitor Erie's finances; two years later, Giambra decided not to seek a third term.

● RI-Gov: Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo has had her share of struggles with progressives and labor groups during her career in state government, but it's been several months since there was even a sign of a serious primary challenger emerging. However, Raimondo might have to worry about a larger threat after Robert Walsh, who is the executive director of the state branch of the National Education Association, recently said he's interested in seeing an independent candidate challenge Raimondo from the left and could even run himself.

It's a story we've seen play out before in politically fungible Rhode Island, when Lincoln Chafee just barely won a 36-34 plurality as a left-leaning independent against Republican John Robitaille in 2010. However, Chafee's situation was very different in many respects: He was a former Republican senator who was seeking an open seat, and he had the good fortune that the Democrat running that year was the conservative Frank Caprio. When told that Barack Obama had no plans to support any candidate that year, Caprio told the president he could "take his endorsement and really shove it as far as I'm concerned," which unsurprisingly helped Caprio finish a distant third.

Walsh was heavily involved in Chafee's 2010 campaign, but Raimondo will undoubtedly retain far more core Democratic voters than the hapless Caprio, making it far likelier that a left-leaning independent would simply play spoiler and help elect a Republican in 2018. Raimondo has had a rocky relationship with labor and progressives ever since ushering through painful pension cuts as state treasurer, but it remains to be seen whether Walsh or another candidate is serious about an independent challenge.

● SC-Gov, SC-AG: Henry McMaster ascended from lieutenant governor to the governorship at the beginning of the year, and he faces a credible GOP primary challenge next June from former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton. McMaster got some decidedly mixed news over the last few days about his prospects for winning his first full term: While a new poll shows him far ahead of Templeton, a long-running investigation into his political allies is only picking up steam and could cause him more trouble.

As we've written before, McMaster's ties to powerful political consultant Richard Quinn are a huge potential liability, and Quinn is not leaving the headlines anytime soon. State Rep. Rick Quinn, who is Richard Quinn's son and close confidant, pleaded guilty on Wednesday to misconduct in office as part of a deal with prosecutors. Their firm, Richard Quinn & Associates, also pleaded guilty to a separate count of failing to register as a lobbyist. The elder Quinn, who has been a close McMaster ally for decades, avoided any charges himself, but the political and legal fallout from this widespread corruption investigation is only intensifying.

Notably, special prosecutor David Pascoe has turned his focus to Attorney General Alan Wilson, another longtime Quinn client. On Wednesday, Pascoe told a judge that Richard Quinn helped Wilson draft a letter seeking to remove Pascoe from the corruption probe, even though Wilson knew full well that the Quinns were potential targets. As part of the plea deal, Richard Quinn has agreed to testify next month before a grand jury. Wilson is already facing GOP primary opposition over the Quinn affair.

McMaster has not been directly implicated in any of this mess, but his ties to the so-called "The Quinndom" run very deep. Templeton has been arguing that, unlike McMaster, she's separate from the "corrupt good ol' boy system," and thanks to her solid fundraising, she'll have the money to broadcast this message. Democrats, meanwhile, have largely consolidated behind state Rep. James Smith, and they're hoping the Quinn scandal will drag the GOP down in this conservative state.

However, a new poll indicates that GOP primary voters aren't taking the Quinn scandal out on McMaster quite yet. Mason-Dixon, polling on behalf of unnamed public policy groups that say they aren't associated with any candidates, gives McMaster a wide 51-21 lead over Templeton, just over the 50 percent threshold he'd need to win without a runoff. Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant, a former state senator who took over McMaster's old job, is a distant third at 8, while Yancey McGill, a former Democrat who briefly served as lieutenant governor in 2014, takes 1.

We've only seen one other poll of this race, and it was a bit different. In October, South Carolina Public Affairs showed McMaster leading Templeton 33-7, while Bryant was at 5. While both primary polls gave McMaster a wide lead, he'd certainly rather have more voters committed to him now, especially since Templeton's large war-chest gives her room to grow.

However, even this Mason-Dixon poll isn't all great news for him. The sample gives McMaster a 48-26 approval score with primary voters, which is fairly weak for an incumbent among members of his own party. A bit surprisingly, the same sample gives McMaster a 46-7 favorability score, which indicates that there are plenty of primary voters who don't know how they feel about McMaster in general but don't think he's doing a good job as governor. Templeton is largely unknown with a 23-2 favorable rating.

● WY-Gov: On Thursday, a woman named Tatiana Maxwell publicly accused Secretary of State Ed Murray, a potential GOP candidate for governor, of sexually assaulting her in 1982. Maxwell says that after she graduated high school, she interned at a law firm where Murray was an attorney. Murray asked her to meet with him at the office after hours, and Maxwell says he proceeded to grope her and tried to kiss her. Then, says Maxwell, he "wrestled me down to the carpet in front of the receptionist desk, opened his pants, lifted up my blouse and ejaculated on my stomach." Murray put out a statement declaring, "This baseless claim about an encounter from thirty-five years ago is unequivocally false."

House

● AZ-02: Southern Arizona's 2nd District seat swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-45 Clinton, so national Republicans are aware that the last thing they want is a Trumpy candidate seeking to replace Rep. Martha McSally, who's likely to run for the Senate. But good luck telling the Trumpkins to butt out. Pima County Supervisor Ally Miller recently told Arizona Daily Star's Joe Ferguson that she's considering a bid, and boy is she something. In response to this summer's white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Miller posted on Facebook, "I'm sick and tired of being hit for being white....It is all about making us feel like we need to apologize. I am WHITE-and proud of it! No apologies necessary." Lea Marquez Peterson, the president and CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and a close ally of Gov. Doug Ducey, is already running for the GOP.

● AZ-08: On Friday, Republican Steve Montenegro resigned from the state Senate to focus on his primary bid to succeed his disgraced former boss, Trent Franks, in next year's special election. Montenegro made his decision even though the state legislature's legal counsel said that Arizona's resign-to-run law does not apply to this race, but a number of other GOP legislators have expressed interest in seeking this 58-37 Trump district, so they'll be relieved that they don't need to sacrifice their seats to campaign here. And one new potential candidate is state Rep. Tony Rivero, who hasn't said anything yet but whom multiple media outlets say is considering running here. The filing deadline for the February primary is Jan. 10.

● FL-20: Earlier this month, Roll Call reported that a former congressional staffer named Winsome Packer had received $220,000 in taxpayer money in 2014 to settle a lawsuit alleging that Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings had sexually harassed her. Hastings denied everything, and a House Ethics Committee investigation concluded at the time that "the most serious allegations" against Hastings were "not supported by evidence," though it did add that the congressman "did admit to certain conduct that was less than professional."

So far, though, Democrats haven't put any public pressure on Hastings to retire or resign from his safely blue South Florida seat, with a spokesperson for Democratic Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi recently saying, "The House Ethics Committee has investigated this matter and ruled on it." While several Democratic House members called for then-Rep. John Conyers to resign after news broke that taxpayer money had been used to settle a sexual harassment claim against him, lawmakers are treating things differently this time. Legislators from both parties tell the Miami Herald that unlike in Conyers' case, the investigatory process already had a chance to play out, and they say there's no reason for Hastings to leave as long as there are no new allegations.

● KS-03: On Friday, attorney Andrea Ramsey dropped out of the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder after The Kansas City Star asked her about a 2005 lawsuit in which a former employee, Gary Funkhouser, accused her of sexually harassing him and retaliating after he rejected her advances. Funkhouser sued LabOne, where Ramsey had been an executive, and multiple sources told the paper that Funkhouser and the company reached an agreement to settle the case following mediation the next year.

Ramsey denied the charges as she exited the race and accused the DCCC of threatening to cut off support. "In its rush to claim the high ground in our roiling national conversation about harassment, the Democratic Party has implemented a zero tolerance standard," said Ramsey, who was not a party to the lawsuit and also said that she had not known about the company's settlement with Funkhouser.

Ramsey had looked like a potentially promising candidate in this competitive suburban Kansas City seat, and she'd had the support of EMILY's List. Fortunately, Team Blue has some other candidates running against Yoder. Teacher Tom Niermann raised a credible $182,000 during his first quarter in the race, despite attracting little national attention when he announced, and he had $125,000 on-hand at the end of September. Labor lawyer Brent Welder, who served as a Bernie Sanders delegate from Missouri at last year's Democratic National Convention, also took in more than $100,000. Businessman Jay Sidie, whom Yoder beat 51-41 last year, is also in, but he's raised very little for his second try.

● OH-12: Cathy Lyttle, an executive at the manufacturing giant Worthington Industries, has announced that she'll stay out of the GOP primary for this 53-42 Trump seat.

● PA-07: On Sunday, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that a former staffer had accused state Sen. Daylin Leach, who is seeking the Democratic nod to challenge GOP Rep. Pat Meehan, of sexually harassing her. The woman, identified as Emily, says Leach grabbed her thigh at an event last year after suggesting he could help her find a job. Two members of the state party confirmed that Emily sent them distraught messages just hours later describing what had happened to her.

Eleven other people, including former Leach staffers, also told the paper that they had witnessed similar behavior from Leach for years, saying he engaged in inappropriate touching and told jokes that made them feel objectified. One former finance director, Aubrey Montgomery, summed up her old boss thusly: "[A]s great as his legislative record is for women globally, he can be awful to women individually."

Leach issued a statement denying he ever behaved inappropriately toward women and blaming a "whisper campaign" on supporters of an unnamed primary opponent, though he acknowledged touching people while talking to them and awkwardly added, "[S]ome people subjectively find such touching unpleasant." (Then why do you do it?) Leach also defended his sense of humor as "no more racy than the average person's, but to be clear, it's not pure either." Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, who had not taken sides in the primary, was not persuaded, and he called for Leach to resign from the state Senate.

Until now, Leach had looked like the leading candidate to face Meehan in this competitive suburban Philadelphia seat. Leach outraised the entire field in the last quarter, including Meehan, and he had $200,000 on-hand. Attorney Dan Muroff, who ran in the Philadelphia-based 2nd District last year, and bioengineer Molly Sheehan both had amassed war-chests about the size of Leach's, but both had been in the race longer and did some self-funding. This seat went from 50-49 Romney to 49-47 Clinton, but Meehan is a very strong fundraiser who has cultivated a moderate reputation throughout his career.

● TX-27: Last week, Republican Rep. Blake Farenthold announced he would not seek re-election after multiple former aides accused him of bullying and sexual harassment, but Texas' filing deadline had already passed. Farenthold missed the deadline to withdraw from the March primary, but he's asked the state party not to include him on the ballot, and the state GOP is suing the state to ensure that Farenthold's name gets removed. Ex-Texas Water Board Chair Bech Bruun looks like the frontrunner to succeed the congressman in this 60-37 Trump Corpus Christi seat, but ex-Victoria County GOP head Michael Cloud and a few others are also running. It would be something, though, if Farenthold still managed to "win" the primary.

Legislative

● VA State House: Control over Virginia's state House now depends on the outcome of three recounts, after a fourth concluded without altering the result. The first recount recently finished in the 40th District, where GOP Del. Tim Hugo, who led by 106 votes heading into the review, saw his lead narrow, but he still finished 99 votes ahead of Democrat Donte Tanner. While a change in outcome was always unlikely here, an errant tally on election night had actually show Tanner up by about 100 votes, so it made sense to pursue a recount in case it uncovered any further issues.

The next recount will begin on Tuesday in the 94th District, where Republican Del. David Yancey maintains a razor-thin lead of just 10 votes over Democrat Shelly Simonds. Seeing as the gap narrowed by 7 votes in the 40th District, it's not hard to imagine something similar happening here, so we could be in for a real roller coaster. A Simonds victory would give the chamber a 50-50 tie and force Republicans to share power with Democrats.

One final GOP-held district, the 28th, will go to a recount on Thursday, but the race comes with a giant asterisk. While Republican Bob Thomas holds an 82-vote lead over Democrat Joshua Cole, election administrators have revealed that at least 147 voters were given the wrong ballots between the 28th and two neighboring districts. Democrats have asked a federal court to void the outcome and order a special election to take place, and they've also pressed ahead with a recount after the state certified the election results.

Lastly, Republican Del. Manoli Loupassi has asked for a recount in the 68th District against Democrat Dawn Adams, but Adams' 336-vote lead is almost certainly too high for him to overcome when officials recount the votes on Wednesday.