The surge in violence we face at the hands of small groups will continue to increase well into the future. One reason is that the barriers to entry for warfare have fallen (see my book, Brave New War for the definitive background on this) and the new methods that are being developed (at both the organizational and tactical levels) are exceedingly effective.

Another reason is that while the physical and information distance between people has been radically reduced through globalization, our social distance -- defined by culture, function, hierarchy, economic role, etc. -- remains little changed. This means that many of the causes of violence that have taken all of human history to develop are rapidly being unlocked (not unlike Pandora's box) through rapid integration. An excellent way to explore this is through Donald Black 's work on sociology, best applied to this topic in, "The Geometry of Terrorism." He posits that the psychology or ideologies of specific groups is of much less importance than the social connectivity of that group to its social superior -- violence in the form of terrorism is typically directed upwards (Van Creveld's, theagainst the). Large social distances equal danger. Our problem is that as physical distances decline in importance, these social distances become a not merely a necessary condition but a sufficient condition for violence. Even small provocations can set it off.

Is Social Integration the End Game?

... in the long term it (technology) destroys the social geometry on which terrorism depends.

Black's nuanced view of the social origins of violence provides a blueprint for finding ways to reduce the origins of violence. However, given its complexity, we should be prepared to assume that this violence will continue for a significant period of time until:However, I am not as sanguine on the ability of technology to reduce social distance. In fact, just the opposite. Technology can radically increase social distance as we see daily in comment/discussion threads and in the polarized media. The online comity does not exist. We are increasingly using the medium to artificially create social distance. As a result, everything seems to point to more fragmentation rather than less, particularly at the individual level. In the long run it's Virginia Techs with bioweapons