Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has claimed victory in Maldivian election 2018 defeating incumbent President Yameen Abdul Gayoom. Solih has been a long-standing aide of pro-India politician and former President Mohamed Nasheed. (Photo: Reuters)

First an anecdote from the Lok Sabha election of 1999. The story is about what was termed as a fight to finish at Madhepura Lok Sabha seat in Bihar. In the fray were Sharad Yadav and Lalu Prasad. Sharad Yadav was the president of the Janata Dal (United) then and Lalu Prasad was building his Rashtriya Janata Dal and not yet convicted in the fodder scam cases.

On the day of counting, Sharad Yadav staged a protest outside Madhepura collectorate, where votes were being counted. Sharad Yadav alleged massive rigging in the polls at the behest of Lalu Prasad, whose RJD was ruling in Bihar. As the counting progressed, it became clear that Sharad Yadav would win. When the message reached, Sharad Yadav, he left the venue of protest in hurry and claimed victory.

A repeat of this has happened in a tiny nation situated in the Indian Ocean, only 115 km from the farthest island of Lakshadweep. When votes were polled on Sunday, September 23, the Opposition parties and leaders cried foul saying that the election was rigged and unfair practices were adopted by the Yameen Abdul Gayoom administration.

President Yameen Abdul Gayoom had allowed only a handful of foreign media outlets to cover Maldivian election. Indian journalists were particularly censored. They were required to get business visa despite the policy of visa on arrival for Indians in Maldives.

The European Union did not send election observers saying Maldives had failed to meet the basic conditions for monitoring. The US threatened to impose sanctions on Maldives and its officials if the country failed to hold free and fair election.

Opposition and its common candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih only appeared reasonable. But they erred in estimating the power of people and democracy, which was facing a tough test in the newly democratised Maldives. Solih claimed victory on Monday morning by when 97.5 per cent ballots had been counted with him securing 58.3 per cent of the votes polled.

The election result would not be officially announced till Saturday. The election commission of Maldives has given one week’s time to the parties to challenge the election process in court. Once this period lapses or the matter is settled, the results would be announced officially. In all probability, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih is likely to be the next president of Maldives.

But who is Ibrahim Mohamed Solih?

For those who have no specific interest in Maldivian politics, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih would appear as a surprise candidate. But he is not. He has been an MP in Maldives for over 25 years. Though Maldives became a republic in 1968 but multi-party democracy was adopted in 2008. Ibrahim Mohamed Solih played a key role as a close aide of former President Mohamed Nasheed.

Ibrahim Mohamed Solih is related to Mohamed Nasheed through his wife. Nasheed is the first cousin of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s wife. Popularly called Ibu, Ibrahim Mohamed Soli was chosen as the Opposition’s common candidate in June after the election commission debarred Mohamed Nasheed from contesting the presidential polls citing his pending sentence in Maldives.

What Solih means to India?

Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and Mohamed Nasheed are considered as brothers in arms in Maldivian politics. Nasheed is seen as pro-India unlike Yameen Abdul Gayoom, under whose reign, China has outpaced India in the island nation. China was seen as dictating the foreign policy of Maldives under Yameen Abdul Gayoom making India’s strategic position vulnerable in the Indian Ocean.

During his door-to-door campaign, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih promised that he would repair relations with the neighbours and India First foreign policy would be reinstated. His campaign was getting traction days ahead of the Sunday polls forcing Yameen Abdul Gayoom to say in his interviews that Maldives still maintained India First policy. Maldives was just opening up to other countries, Yameen Abdul Gayoom argued.

India has been critical of the Yameen Abdul Gayoom administration for suppressing human rights and crushing the opposition political forces. During his campaign, Solih said that he would promote human rights and follow the rule of law if elected to the office of the president.

India’s relations Maldives received a blow when Yameen Abdul Gayoom declared Emergency in the country in February this year. The Maldivian Supreme Court had ordered the release of jailed Opposition leaders calling the trials as a sham. Yameen Abdul Gayoom refused to execute the Supreme Court order.

The Emergency was lifted 45 days later but the relations with India have suffered a lot since. With Ibrahim Mohamed Solih winning the majority in Maldives, the bilateral relations with India are expected to be restored and hawkish Chinese influence wane.

Read | Sharad Yadav-Lalu Prasad's fight to the finish in 1999 Lok Sabha election

Maldives presidential election: Opposition candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih declares victory

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