By Jeff Dieringer

Coming into the 2018 season, Jason Kipnis’ potential contributions to the team were unclear. After an injury-riddled 2017, where Kipnis would only appear in 90 games, he was hoping to turn in an injury-free, five-win season, the caliber of season that provoked the Indians to sign him to a 6-year, $62-million-dollar extension in the winter of 2014.

Kipnis started off slow the first two months as he was severely under league average, posting 34 and 83 wRC+ marks in March/April and May respectively. Things started to click for Kipnis, though, as the snow turned to sunshine in Cleveland, where he never dipped below a 100 wRC+ the rest of the season. Kipnis’ overall numbers don’t look too hot when it was all said and done, posting a final .230/.315/.389 slash line with an 89 wRC+, a .308 wOBA, and 2.1 fWAR, one of his lowest seasons fWAR wise in his career. One crucial takeaway though was his health, he did miss some games in June/July for hamstring tightness, but there were no serious DL stints that sidelined him for any significant time.

It certainly is perplexing to look at Kipnis’ 2018 campaign, especially trying to figure out what to expect out of him next season, will his numbers look like April and May, or will they start to trend more towards his August and September numbers. I think it’ll trend more towards the second half Kipnis, for good reason, though. Diving into the numbers, Kipnis seems more likely to go that way, despite what ZiPS might say.

There was a significant turning point in Kipnis’ season that came in late August in Kansas City. Kipnis had been making strides, but he still was struggling as such a horrid April and May had drug him down to a .216/.305/.345 slash line, with a .289 wOBA, and a dismal 76 wRC+ up until that point of August 25th. But there was some mysterious thing that happened on a Saturday night in a hotel room, in Kansas City. Unfortunately, it wasn’t a Jobu ceremony like the Indians had tried with former catcher Yan Gomes, but this one did involve an inanimate object, a magazine. Kipnis tells the story.

“I kind of watched a lot of 2016 and just where my hands were and tried to get that feeling back," said Kipnis to media during the season. "I was in my bedroom with a magazine rolled up as a bat like (Roger) Maris in '61 or something like that. But, I was excited coming in today because I thought I found something.”

Kipnis ended up going 4-for-5 that Sunday with a homer and four RBI's. From that date forward, Kipnis started to break out, slashing .295/.361/.589 with a .397 wOBA, and a 150 wRC+ in his final 108 plate appearances. This was more of the Jason Kipnis Indians’ fans grew to love and expect.

I started to dig into the numbers and figure out exactly why there was such a sudden shift. Mentally, it seemed to have made a difference, and that certainly is critical. As one baseball player once said that “Hitting is fifty percent above the shoulders.” Outside of the mental side, there were some key differences between Kipnis’ number pre and post August 26th.

Not the Luck of the Irish

Kipnis was simply unlucky for a good part of the season. Kipnis had a .250 BABIP from March to August 25th, compared to his .306 career BABIP. He also coupled that with a 36.3 Hard Hit% and an average exit velocity of 88.9 MPH. Comparing this to post-August 26th, he had a BABIP of .296, with a significantly lower Hard Hit % of 28.2. His average EV stayed around the same, coming in it at 89.25 MPH. Kipnis was certainly hitting the ball hard as he had 25 barrels pre-August 26th with 16 of those ending up as hits, and went 9-15 on balls batted 100 MPH+. Although a smaller sample size, his three barrels were all hits in September, as well them all being 100 MPH+.

I think this had a substantial effect on Kipnis, he was making good contact, but balls were finding players, and not grass. Another nugget as we start to transition, Kipnis had a .188 BABIP on groundballs pre-August 26th, after, his BABIP shot up to .304. Evident by his surge, those numbers weren’t going to last forever. There’s hope that it isn’t likely he stays unlucky for as long as he did next season as well.

Fly Ball Revolution Club

One of the hottest phrases of baseball over the last couple of years is the fly ball revolution, or launch angle. There’s reason to think that Kipnis may have benefited from this movement this past season. Pre-August 26th, Kipnis’ average launch angle was 19.9, coupled with a FB% of 43.8. Post-August 26th, his average launch angle was 24.5, with an increase in FB% to 48.7. Subsequently, his HR/FB was 7.4% pre-August, and more than doubled to 19.9% post-August. Now comparing this to his career average of a 10.9 launch angle and 34.8 FB%, clearly both of them were higher in post-August 26th.

Most of Kipnis’ batted ball data was the same, his batted ball location percentages and contact percentages were almost exact, but his HR/FB saw the most fluctuation. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that his launch angle and FB% increased, while his home runs increased, as well, while also posting a higher wRC+ and wOBA. Though, this isn’t definitive, the numbers seem to suggest that even if he wasn’t trying, Kipnis seemed to have a fly ball revolution approach.

Conclusion

So what does this exactly mean for 2019? Well, one thing is we hope Kipnis can stay healthy again, which he’ll be 32 next year, so it isn’t a guarantee. ZiPS doesn’t think he’ll do that great with an fWAR of two, with a 95 OPS+, but there’s hope that he’ll outperform that. Kipnis likely won’t be as unlucky as he was most of last year, and if the fly ball revolution works for him, then why try and change it? Clearly, what he was doing mentally with the bat helped, since his finish was so strong. He’ll also head into spring training coming off a healthy season.

Playing after an injured year isn’t as easy and it takes time to get back into game shape and the swing of the season. Will Kipnis be the five-win player he once was? No, I don’t think so, but he’ll be an integral part of a potential deep run in the playoffs for the Tribe, and it’s reasonable to expect he’ll contribute and be productive.