The Houston Outlaws came out of the mid-season break with a much-improved performance on the back of their unorthodox compositions, bringing down Stage 2 playoffs winner San Francisco Shock and the Boston Uprising this week. Their remaining opponents this stage appear weak, and the Texans are on course to make their first stage playoffs. But could they dare to dream for more?





The status quo





The second season of the Overwatch League introduced the play-in tournament for the teams that finish 7th to 12th place during the regular season. Those six teams will fight for the remaining two season playoff spots in a double elimination bracket. The 2-14 Washington Justice and 1-14 Florida Mayhem seem unlikely to qualify, and the 8-8 Philadelphia Fusion are probably the highest ranked team that could still slip to 13th place. The Dallas Fuel, despite their recent performances, sit fairly safe at a 10-8, and are likely a lock for the play-ins, at worst.





As for the Outlaws, they are sitting at an admittedly underwhelming match score of 5-12 and an even worse negative 19 map-win differential, right at the bottom of the teams in contention. In a vacuum, their chances don’t look all too promising.





Image via Overwatchleague.com





However, while clinching a play-in spot once required around a 50% win rate throughout the season, the bar is now set considerably lower thanks to the declining performance of the 10th to 13th place teams. At the same time, the teams on the lower half of the “contention zone” looked much improved, and all put on performances that should keep their playoff dreams alive.





Looking at performance trajectories in terms of matches from just this stage, the Outlaws look like the strongest team of the outlined bunch. Better yet, they arguably have the easiest schedule for the rest of the season. Their only two matches against teams above the cutoff are against the Los Angeles Gladiators and the London Spitfire, and the latter team has the uncanny ability to lose games they aren’t expected to lose.





Six of their remaining eleven matches are against teams from the contention zone, giving them the ability to influence the middle of the league’s standings in a major way. The Outlaws also have two matches against the Justice and one against the Mayhem, which they should win.





Arguably the only other team with a comparatively weak schedule are the Paris Eternal, which the Outlaws will play twice. This lets the Outlaws intercept Paris themselves, even giving them the chance to even out the Eternals’ current two-win-lead. So, while the Outlaws are two wins and a lot of maps behind a play-in slot (unlike all the other teams they are fighting against for the precious 12th place spot) they don't play any of the top three teams that would be likely to beat them. This essentially equalizes their current two win handicap.





Map score might make the difference

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If we accept this premise, the Outlaws need to realize that every map is of the utmost importance for their season. Their current map score of 26-45-2 (-19) puts a serious dent in their campaign, and they’ll need to land convincing wins during their six matches against lower mid-tier opposition.





As Jake pointed out on Twitter, DPS compositions are unlikely to work on Rialto, Eichenwalde and Paris. The Outlaws will play those maps four times this stage, but three of those times will be against some of the weakest teams currently in the league (Mayhem, Justice, and the Toronto Defiant).





Given the importance of clean sweeps for their map record, Outlaws need to at least keep their GOATs play at a decent level to squeeze out those crucial wins. The map rotation for the next stage is still unknown, so the Outlaws will have to hope for a selection that favors their play style.





Ultimately, the Outlaws will need to go on a tear similar to the one they pulled off during last year’s Stage 1, where they managed an impressive 18 map win streak. This year, their only clean sweep came in their most recent match against the Uprising.





It could’ve been so much easier, again





The Outlaws’ crippling map 5 woes are once again coming back to bite them. As an organization, they have a 5-14 record during tiebreakers. Just this season, they are at a 1-4 record in those situations. These additional victories could have put the Outlaws at a cushy 9-8 score, and the conversation about their season would be very different. It was therefore no less of a surprise that they took it to the San Francisco Shock and won their tiebreaker⁠.





While this doesn’t mean the team has overcome their issues, it at least sets a different precedent than last year. In season one, the Outlaws only won four of their 12 tiebreaker games, narrowly missing the season playoffs by two wins. Three of those tiebreakers were against the Philadelphia Fusion, and winning just one would have guaranteed the Outlaws a spot in the season playoffs due to a better map record.





Conclusions





The Outlaws came out of the mid-season break by giving fans three strong matches that allow them to dream of a spot in the playoffs. Not only did they beat the Shock, but they did so by winning map five, where they have so often fallen short. They also delivered their first clean sweep of the season against the Uprising at a time when every map counts. If the Outlaws wanted to lay a foundation for reaching the playoffs, then this was exactly what the team needed to accomplish.





It’s unclear if their new approach will be enough to reliably beat mid-table teams or if those teams can adjust to the Outlaws’ new playstyle. Even if we assume Houston still can’t go toe to toe with the best in the league on a consistent basis, their weak schedule gives them a reasonable chance to at least qualify for the play-ins. Given their newly found freedom from their former parent organization Infinite Entertainment, it would be an impressive comeback story for the newly unshackled team.