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Industry executives are also worried job losses will continue to hammer the industry, with 41 per cent expecting further reduction in headcount in 2018, and another 36 per cent of the view that employment prospects in the industry will not change.

“The mood of uncertainty shows up again in views of rig deployment in 2018,” Deloitte said in its report. “Over half expect the number of rigs to decline”.

Structural changes to the sector are also feeding the grim prognosis. While 53% believe increase fuel efficiency in gasoline and diesel engines will crimp oil demand, as many as 41 per cent expect demand for the commodity to be tempered due to broader adoption of electric vehicles. Popularity of ride-sharing services and autonomous vehicles are also emerging as new concerns for the industry.

The U.S. oil executives’ cautious mood comes as other industry observers believe markets are finding equilibrium — even if it’s fragile.

Over half expect the number of rigs to decline

“Looking into 2018, we see that three quarters out of four will be roughly balanced — again using an assumption of unchanged OPEC production, and based on normal weather conditions,” the IEA said in its monthly report published Thursday, noting that Saudi Arabia and Russia have strong incentives to manage prices.

Still, it will remain a long, slow path to recovery, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, forecasting prices to remain range-bound at its current levels next year.

“Lower prices are beginning to weigh on U.S. shale oil activity as concerns mount that aggressive development could lead to output declines,” OPEC said in its monthly report earlier this week.

“Oil prices are expected to remain at $50-55/b in the next year. A rise above that level would encourage U.S. oil producers to expand their drilling activities, otherwise the lower prices could lead to a reduction in their capex.”