HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. — Score round 1 for Hillary Clinton.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of swing-state activists, strategists and operatives who watched the first debate here Monday night. The insiders’ bipartisan verdict: Clinton dispatched Donald Trump in their first of three nationally televised meetings.


Overall, roughly 80 percent of insiders — with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans responding to the post-debate survey — said Clinton did the better job at the debate, including 99 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans. Only 21 percent — 1 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of Republicans — picked Trump as the winner.

Democrats said Clinton was prepared and succeeded in provoking Trump — who began the debate speaking so quietly the audio engineers struggled to raise his volume to a comparable level in the debate hall but quickly became more animated in the face of Clinton’s attacks.

“No contest,” said an Iowa Democrat — who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “Trump held it together for 16 minutes and fell apart.”

“Trump melted down,” added a Florida Democrat. “This is bad for him. [It] confirms all the worries of swing voters.”

Some Democrats predicted the debate would swing the momentum, which appeared to be with Trump, with public polls showing a tightening race.

“Donald Trump exposed himself to be a clown,” added a New Hampshire Democrat, who also predicted “the polls will show dramatic movement in next 24 hours.”

But a Florida Democrat countered that Clinton’s performance was unlikely to change fundamentally the trajectory of the race.

“It is becoming a base turnout election, and she did a great job tonight of making the stakes in this election very clear,” the Democrat said.

Among Republicans, the tally was closer — but that speaks to a divided party as much as actual ambivalence about which candidate performed better on Monday night.

“Trump was an embarrassment,” an Iowa Republican said. “I'd hate to be the guy in the spin room lying about how Trump won the debate.”

“It wasn't close,” a Virginia Republican added. “Sure, our tribal politics will force it to seem somewhat close, but even the most committed of Trump supporters know, deep down, that did not go well.”

But there was a significant share of Republicans who thought Trump won — most of whom said Trump’s outside appeal could be the most memorable aspect of the debate.

“Hillary Clinton sounded like every politician has sounded for the last half century. Donald Trump did not,” said an Ohio Republican. “This year that may just be enough.”

“Neither candidate earned a single undecided vote,” a Nevada Republican added. “Clinton supporters will think she won. Trump supporters will think he won. Trump gets the nod because he did not completely implode.”

Here are two other takeaways from the first debate:

Clinton met expectations on Monday night, while insiders are mixed on Trump.

The vast majority of all insiders, 88 percent, said Clinton met expectations going into Monday night. That includes nearly three-quarters of Republicans: One Florida Republican called Clinton “calm in the face of an insane person.”

Insiders were more mixed on Trump, on the other hand. Overall, 55 percent of insiders said Trump met expectations: 40 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans.

“There were no expectations,” said an Iowa Republican. “He got off to a great start, appeared reserved, but then he took the bait. The sneers and reactions when Clinton was speaking undercut his first impression.”

But for some Republicans, meeting expectations wasn’t good enough.

The expectations “were low,” said one Pennsylvania Republican. “He needed to exceed [them], and he didn't.”

And a Virginia Republican said Trump did little to appeal to a key group of Republican-leaning voters whom Trump is repelling this year: white-collar whites.

“He needs college whites, and he didn't connect,” the Republican said.

Republicans are divided on the political impact of the debate.

GOP insiders aren’t sure whether Trump is better or worse off after the Monday night debate.

Asked whether Trump’s performance makes it more likely he wins the race, just 31 percent said yes — comparable to the 33 percent who said it doesn’t. A slim plurality, 36 percent, said the debate wouldn’t have a significant impact on Trump’s chances.

The debate was “not fatal, but very definitely a missed opportunity,” said one New Hampshire Republican.

"Neither of them made a persuasive case that they were more fit than the other to be president. At this point that advantages Trump," said an Ohio Republican.

“Put plainly: he failed the presidential test,” a Virginia Republican added. “And hiding out on Fox News isn't going to fix it for him.”

But despite — or perhaps because of — Trump’s unconventional debate style, some insiders said his message could resonate more than the pundits think in the immediate wake of the debate.

“He spoke in a language that normal Americans understand,” a Virginia Republican said.

“America is looking for something different,” a Colorado Republican added. “He is very different.”

View The first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump The First Presidential Debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, on September 26th, 2016 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, NY.

And some Republicans cautioned against reading too much into the first match-up.

“There are two more debates to watch,” said a Virginia Republican. “Trump has more he can adjust, [while] Hillary is a fixed quantity as a virtual 30-year political incumbent. Trump will be more aggressive in the next two debates.”

Among Democrats, it was more decisive: 60 percent said the debate made it less likely Trump becomes president, compared to 15 percent who said it makes it more likely and 25 percent who said it wouldn’t have an impact.

“Trump wasn't presidential,” a Colorado Democrat said. “He needed to show restraint, and he failed. Tonight was his opportunity to show the country how he would govern, and he missed the opportunity.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this special survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Christopher Murray, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Michigan: Jill Alper, Saul Anuzis, Andrea Bitely, Lori Carpentier, Howard Edelson, Jordan Gehrke, Steve Hood, Darwin Jiles Jr., Joe Lehman, Dennis Lennox, Katie Packer, Ronna Romney McDaniel, John Truscott, Stephanie White, John Yob

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.