Because it is preposterous to insist that Jerusalem is not the capital of Israel, the political clique opposed to the United States’ recognition of this plain fact—that is, almost all of the western foreign policy establishment, journalists, commentators, former Obama and Clinton administration officials, European politicians and bureaucrats, United Nations cretins, and so on—settled on a different strategy to oppose it.

They fearmongered. In unison, they predicted violence, killing, terrorism, rioting, protests, instability, blowback, and general catastrophe if President Trump followed through on his campaign pledge (and the campaign pledge of many presidents before him).

One sensed that most of these warnings were dishonest—issued not as genuinely believed analysis of what would happen, but as an attempt at scaring the administration out of pulling the trigger. Having spent decades insisting the United States cannot recognize Jerusalem until the Palestinians, Europeans, et al agree, a Trump announcement would not just embarrass but suggest the impotence of an entire political community.

So there was much more on the line than whether the Middle East would plunge into chaos – there was the vanity, prestige, and power of a group of people who have exercised a great deal of control over Middle East foreign policy for decades. The real danger for this group wasn’t so much the announcement itself. It was that Armageddon would not follow it.

Which is exactly what has happened. Yes, there have been protests and a few instances of violence. But nothing close to what opponents presented as the risks of the president merely uttering the words "Jerusalem is the capital of Israel."

This is the same group of experts, of course, that just a couple of years ago reassured the world that the Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran would not set the region on fire. Yet the rise of an aggressive, acquisitive, uncontained Iran, fueled by its liberation from sanctions and billions in cash, has been the real story of instability, violence, and blowback in the region. From Yemen to Lebanon, virtually every armed conflict in the Middle East today has one thing in common: Iran.

So the recent record of our foreign policy and media elites is as follows: when they predict catastrophe, there is none; and when they predict harmony and goodwill, there is catastrophe.

To see just how hysterical and wrong they were about Jerusalem, take a look at the tweets below, from the days leading up to Trump’s announcement, and decide for yourself. They’re from a who’s who of journalists, analysts, and former Obama and Clinton administration officials.

Jerusalem is a tinderbox waiting for a match. What's the compelling US interest in recognizing Jerusalem as Usrael's capital? https://t.co/zTur194iVB — Aaron David Miller (@aarondmiller2) December 3, 2017

In order to cater to his political base, Trump appears willing to: Put US personnel at great risk;

Risk C-ISIL momentum;

Destabilize a regional ally;

Strain global alliances;

Put Israeli-Palestinian peace farther out of reach. https://t.co/chbrHUez2Z — Ned Price (@nedprice) December 6, 2017

Can’t think of another warning this dire stemming from an American action—a reckless and crassly political one at that. https://t.co/DlZPeCIVOh — Ned Price (@nedprice) December 6, 2017

Just got this in my in box from Ayman Odeh, leading Arab Israeli member of parliament: "Trump is a pyromaniac who could set the entire region on fire with his madness. — Susan Glasser (@sbg1) December 5, 2017

A dismal week for US diplomacy: First we boycott the UN conference on migration at a time 1 of every 100 people in the world is uprooted; then we change US policy re Jerusalem in a way that could well introduce yet another source of violence in Middle East https://t.co/bGYoBEaLF8 — Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) December 5, 2017

Don’t underestimate Trump’s desire to disrupt the status quo on Jerusalem on the theory that out of crisis can come an opportunity. He should beware: Jerusalem is a dangerous place to test a theory. https://t.co/UPEJI4Mttd — Martin Indyk (@Martin_Indyk) December 3, 2017

Trump seems to view all foreign policy as an extension of a patchwork of domestic political positions, with no regard for the consequences of his actions. https://t.co/uNKfy1vfaG — Ben Rhodes (@brhodes) December 5, 2017

Then why cause an international crisis by announcing it? https://t.co/Bvgo6lqtbt — Ben Rhodes (@brhodes) December 8, 2017

In addition to making goal of peace even less possible, Trump is risking huge blowback against the US and Americans. For no reason other than a political promise he doesn't even understand. https://t.co/NxJU1NeIDZ — Ben Rhodes (@brhodes) December 6, 2017

Worth noting that the consulate is roughly a block from the Old City so even going to work could be dangerous. But diplomats will because thousands of Americans may need their help. https://t.co/Lx2PMlewG0 — Moira Whelan (@moira) December 5, 2017

If there is any nuance to the President’s message on Jerusalem he needs to get out there with it publicly now! This is not a story you want leaking out & dictated by other voices. Otherwise, there will be protests/riots/violence by the time he says anything — Ilan Goldenberg (@ilangoldenberg) December 5, 2017

The President is rolling the dice with the safety of US diplomats because of domestic political concerns. https://t.co/4HNwDqPeDC — Ilan Goldenberg (@ilangoldenberg) December 5, 2017

Looks like something is happening. Hold on tight while the President generates a potential international crisis for no good reason https://t.co/VYuuUZ2sec — Ilan Goldenberg (@ilangoldenberg) December 5, 2017

The President is putting American diplomats at risk because he doesn’t want to sign a piece of paper that contradicts an unrealistic campaign promise https://t.co/nLwROTAU20 — Ilan Goldenberg (@ilangoldenberg) December 5, 2017

Funny – when I testified to Congress last month and warned of the possibility of serious unrest should the embassy be moved absent a final status agreement, a number of congressmen acted as if I was crazy to predict or be worried about such a thing https://t.co/uvTNSDJbGX — (((Michael Koplow))) (@mkoplow) December 5, 2017

I am strongly confident that this embassy announcement will lead to real violence, and just as strongly hopeful that I have never been more wrong about anything. — (((Michael Koplow))) (@mkoplow) December 5, 2017

https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/938099199501062144

Great takedown by @GershomG of possible U.S. decision to recognize Jerusalem as capital of Israel. https://t.co/r8clWQgF5p — Rob Malley (@Rob_Malley) December 5, 2017

Striking coda to thread on Trump's Jerusalem move from Mideast expert @Katulis: Pray https://t.co/mEf6KrPVQt — Anne Barnard (@ABarnardNYT) December 5, 2017

Right now there are several good people committed to protecting US national security working hard trying to mitigate the risks of Trump's statement on Jerusalem tomorrow — Brian Katulis (@Katulis) December 5, 2017

And, in fairness, here is someone who got it right – a reporter for Haaretz, the far-left Israeli daily.