Emmanuel Macron knows whom he wants as the next president of the European Commission — the bloc's competition supremo, Margrethe Vestager.

According to three senior officials in the European Parliament, the French president hopes to convince the Danish commissioner to be a candidate for the Commission presidency in 2019.

There is a stumbling bloc: She's a member of the Liberals, languishing in fourth place behind two center-right and the main center-left political families in terms of size and support. The backing of a French president — even one whose approval ratings have gone through the floor — could provide a major boost to the Liberals, however.

“Macron has informed some people about it, including Joseph Daul,” said a senior Parliament official, referring to the president of the conservative European People’s Party. The official added that if Macron wants to get his pick into the Commission top job, "his only choice is to put pressure on the Liberals.”

After this article was published, Daul said Macron had never spoken to him about Vestager as a potential candidate to lead the Commission.

The current Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, announced last year that he would not seek a second mandate when his term ends in 2019. And Vestager, who has been dubbed the “most powerful woman in the EU,” would be in a good position to replace him, and is believed to be interested in the job. However, she would likely face competition from fellow Commissioners Jyrki Katainen and Pierre Moscovici as well as Michel Barnier, the EU's lead Brexit negotiator.

“Macron’s interest in Vestager is evident,” said Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade, a French MP for Macron’s En Marche movement. “She’s doing an excellent job, she’s the most visible pro-European, she’s a woman, she’s been successful on files that Macron cares about, and she has shaken things up in the EU on many topics.”

Anglade added it was too soon for Macron to have his heart set on one candidate, and that he could yet support another Liberal candidate, such as Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of the ALDE group.

Vestager’s office declined to comment on the Macron connection and has steadfastly refused to discuss her next steps after the antitrust portfolio.

So far, Macron has not joined any European political family.

Jens Rohde, a Danish MEP from Vestager’s Danish Social-Liberal Party (Radikale Venstre), said he had not discussed the matter with her, “but in my opinion she would be an excellent choice for Europe.”

“Margrethe Vestager is top qualified as a politician, and I also think that it is time for Europe to find a president who is able to make our common project shine,” Rohde said. “Finally, it is time for a woman to take the position.”

Macron, the big prize

At the 2014 European Parliament election, many EU leaders embraced the Spitzenkandidat system under which the political family that won the most seats in the Parliament election (in this case, the EPP) saw its candidate (Jean-Claude Juncker) become Commission chief. The system is likely to be used again in the 2019 election.

So far, Macron has not joined any European political family. He served in the government of his Socialist predecessor in the Elysée, François Hollande, but drew support from all sides when he struck out on his own. Officials say Macron is drawn to Vestager because she is far from the traditional image of the dull Eurocrat.

The liberal ALDE group to which Vestager belongs is the fourth force in the European Parliament and the party has eight EU leaders in its ranks, including Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Xavier Bettel from Luxembourg and now Andrej Babiš in the Czech Republic. If Macron joins the Liberals, they would leapfrog the Socialists to become the second largest group in the Council.

Not everyone is convinced.

“The real question is which political family will he join? If he chooses the Liberals, then he could have something to say about the Spitzenkandidat,” said Alain Lamassoure, a veteran French MEP from the conservative EPP. “But ALDE today is a secondary and highly heterogeneous force with political figures that are not really at Macron’s level.”

Vestager knows Macron well, dating back to his time as French economy minister when she spent months reviewing GE’s takeover of Alstom’s turbine business and EDF’s takeover of Areva.

Merci à @Vestager et @Moedas pour ce riche débat sur l'Europe dans le cadre des #journeesdebruxelles pic.twitter.com/5SrK8DEam1 — Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) October 20, 2016

Vestager’s team has also been conducting a long-running and controversial probe into hydroelectric concessions given by the French state to EDF.

Despite those adversarial proceedings, people close to Vestager have described her relations with Macron as warm. They spoke regularly when he was economy minister, according to one colleague, and have shared a stage at events. Last month, when Vestager was in Paris she had a meeting at the presidential palace.

Common ground

Vestager and Macron appear to have plenty in common. Both have sought to square the circle between economic liberalism and social protection. Vestager prides herself on having driven through tough reforms that, she says, may bring pain in the short term but will benefit Denmark in the long term; Macron appears to be setting off down the same path.

Both are firm believers in the European project and regularly extol its benefits. Both are relative outsiders to their national political establishments, with Vestager hailing from a small party and Macron creating his own. Both are acutely aware of the need to harness the dynamism of the digital economy but also to rein in its excesses.

“It would be strange to have Macron supporting a different candidate than the one put forward by the CDU” — Alain Lamassoure, French MEP

But the unity may not last. In the coming months, Siemens and Alstom will ask Vestager to approve the merger of their railway operations, in a deal that has the backing of Paris and Berlin but has raised competition concerns. The antitrust and state aid probe into EDF could also take a turn that could displease Macron’s government.

Three boxes to tick

According to EU lore, an aspiring president of the European Commission is said to need three qualities. First they must have been a member of the European Council — a head of state or government. Second, they must come from a country that is a member of the eurozone. Third, they must not have been around long enough to have made enemies in national capitals.

Juncker certainly did not tick the third box — but he overcame initial fears about his candidacy from Berlin and strong objections from London and Budapest.

Vestager, a former deputy prime minister of Denmark, would not meet criteria one or two. As for the third: Vestager has not been around that long, but her big decisions against the tax dealings of Apple, Starbucks and others have generated bad blood in the European countries that house them, such as Ireland and the Netherlands.

It would also be hard for Macron to dismiss the claims of Barnier, who is widely believed to harbor a burning ambition for the EU’s top post. Barnier would be a natural fit for the EPP, home to Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats. “It would be strange to have Macron supporting a different candidate than the one put forward by the CDU,” French MEP Lamassoure said.

This article was updated to add comment from Joseph Daul and to clarify comments by Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade.