With only 12 Premier League games left to play our writers discuss which three teams will join Manchester City in next season’s Champions League and which two will miss out

Manchester City look certain to win this season’s Premier League title but below them the battle for the three remaining Champions League places continue. On Saturday, Tottenham face Arsenal in the north London derby, a game that could go a long way towards deciding how the season ends for the two clubs.

Table as it stands

2. Manchester United (56 pts, goal difference +33)

3. Liverpool (51 pts, +28)

4. Chelsea (50 pts, +23)

5. Tottenham (49 pts, +27)

6. Arsenal (45 pts, +16)

Remaining fixtures between the five teams: Tottenham v Arsenal (10 Feb), Manchester United v Chelsea (25 Feb), Manchester United v Liverpool (10 March), Chelsea v Tottenham (1 Apr), Manchester United v Arsenal (28 April), Chelsea v Liverpool (5 May).

European games could impact race for top four

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The race for the top four places could well be decided by how the teams do in this season’s edition. Chelsea face Barcelona in the last 16 and it is almost impossible to see them get through considering their form but I expect Antonio Conte to sort out their domestic performances and stay in the top four. United will make it too, considering their point advantage and the fact that they play Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal at home in the run-in. Then it is down to Spurs or Liverpool for the fourth slot and Mauricio Pochettino’s team may well just nick it. They looked fresher than Liverpool last weekend and may also be eliminated by Juventus in the last 16 of the Champions League and therefore able to focus on the league and the FA Cup. Marcus Christenson

Verdict Manchester United (2nd), Tottenham (3rd), Chelsea (4th) to qualify

Chelsea turmoil could play into Tottenham hands

Manchester United already boast a buffer of sorts from those at their back and their run-in seems relatively kind, the derby across the city aside. The real intrigue lies in Tottenham Hotspur’s ability to whip up momentum, unbeaten as they are since mid-December and with that intriguing clash at Stamford Bridge still to come. They may have more about them this time around to avoid their customary stutter in the run-in. Arsenal’s inconsistencies, particularly away from home, may hamper their challenge, and the identity of the fourth team may hinge upon Liverpool’s trip to Chelsea on the penultimate weekend. That has the makings of another nail-biter, conjuring memories of Jesper Gronkjaer’s winner in May 2003, but the sense of turmoil gripping the champions at present suggests only one winner. Dominic Fifield

Verdict United, Tottenham, Liverpool

Arsenal too far off pace despite new signings

Chelsea’s 2018 downturn has opened the competition for Champions League qualification when previously it had looked like a clamour for fourth place between several clubs. Tottenham can be the major beneficiaries unless Antonio Conte, or whoever is in charge at Stamford Bridge, arrests the decline quickly. Big January signings should bring fresh impetus to United and Arsenal although the latter have a lot of ground to make up even with, on paper, an easier run-in. That leaves Liverpool to repay Jürgen Klopp’s faith that, without Philippe Coutinho, he has sufficient strength and quality to maintain year-on-year progress. Andy Hunter

Verdict United, Liverpool, Tottenham

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North London derby could shape top four

Right now, it is easy to fear that Chelsea and Arsenal will be the clubs to fall short. The momentum is against Chelsea at an inopportune time and, when behind-the-scenes squabbling spills out into the open, it can only be destabilising. Give players an excuse and they will take it. Arsenal’s trip to Wembley for Saturday’s derby against Tottenham has taken on seismic importance. Lose, and their top-four dream could die. The club’s away form has been unacceptable. Liverpool and Tottenham have the verve to put themselves on the right side of the cut-off while Manchester United would have to slip catastrophically. David Hytner

Verdict United, Liverpool, Tottenham

Tottenham could go past Liverpool

Chelsea’s alarming plunge in form suggests Conte’s side will be the ones to drop out of the top four of the current group by season close. Much depends on how the Italian’s future is resolved. If Chelsea fail to arrest the slide Tottenham Hotspur appear to be the most likely beneficiaries and a sneaking suspicion here says Pochettino’s side also may leapfrog Liverpool to finish third. There is no doubt that Manchester United will claim the second berth they occupy due to the addition of Alexis Sánchez and José Mourinho’s managerial nous. And sixth-placed Arsenal? Their perennial flakiness will cost them again. Jamie Jackson

Verdict United, Tottenham, Liverpool

Europa League the focus for Arsenal

The only real shade of doubt is that old favourite, the Battle For Fourth Place. United have a lot of points already. Liverpool surely have too much scurrying brilliance up front to take a dive now. Chelsea are busy going through one of their cyclical episodes. If Harry Kane plays two-thirds of the remaining league games Tottenham should have the Champions League spot their good husbandry deserves. New-model ageing galáctico Arsenal look more of a threat than they did two weeks ago, but winning the Europa League might be a more achievable goal. Barney Ronay

Verdict United, Liverpool, Tottenham

United could slip on way to second

Right now you would have to say Chelsea look most like missing out, because they are the ones losing games, putting in chaotic performances and looking as though a change of manager might be imminent. That said, Chelsea are also the club most likely to implement decisive change and perk up quickly, always assuming the hierarchy does not tire of these biannual crises. At the moment, however, Chelsea are in ongoing disarray and looking likely to be overtaken by Spurs, who are going well. So it is the two Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Spurs for my top four. City to be champions, obviously, though United are not necessarily nailed-on as runners-up. Paul Wilson

Verdict United, Liverpool, Tottenham