ALEXIS TSIPRAS, Greece’s radical left-wing opposition leader, believes that by raising his profile abroad he can impress voters at home. His audience last month with Pope Francis, party officials explained, was a “meeting of minds”. The pontiff, they said, agreed with Mr Tsipras, an atheist, about the unjust suffering caused by harsh austerity policies imposed in the wake of economic collapse, whether in Greece or, in the late 1990s, in the Pope’s native Argentina.

Mr Tsipras’s unsuccessful but well-publicised run for president of the European Union’s commission as the candidate of the European left also helped boost his credibility back home. His Syriza party finished 3.8% ahead of the governing coalition, led by New Democracy, a centre-right party, in the elections for the EU parliament in May.

Talk of an early general election is in the air: New Democracy and the PanHellenic Socialist Movement need 180 votes in parliament next February to choose a new president to replace the incumbent, Karolos Papoulias, who is retiring from politics. With only 154 lawmakers between them, it will be a struggle to round up the extra votes from a pool of fractious independents and moderate left-wingers. If they fail, an early general election will be held. Mr Tsipras is in pole position to win.

Three recent opinion polls showed Syriza’s lead over New Democracy widening to up to five percentage points, which, if replicated at a general election, would leave Syriza just ten seats short of a parliamentary majority. One of the latest polls, published on September 27th, shocked the government: it gave Syriza a lead of 11 percentage points over New Democracy.

Mr Tsipras is no longer pledging to rip up Greece’s bail-out agreement, yet many are still suspicious of his new €11 billion ($14 billion) tax-and-spend economic programme. It calls, among other things, for restoring the minimum monthly salary to €750 (about 60% higher than the average salary now being paid by cash-strapped private employers), cracking down on tax evasion, creating 300,000 new jobs and restoring Christmas bonuses for pensioners. “It’s much too good to be true,” sighed Koula Peristeri, an unemployed factory worker who nonetheless supports Syriza.

Antonis Samaras, the centre-right prime minister, has riposted with his own promises. Next year’s budget will include tax breaks for hard-pressed households, including cuts in levies on property and heating fuel. There is even talk of reducing the corporate tax rate from 26% to 20%.

Mr Samaras would like to go further but he is constrained by the “troika” of bail-out monitors from the EU, the European Central Bank and IMF. Back in Athens for a final review of Greece’s progress with reform, they are pressing for yet more austerity measures: another 6,500 dismissals from the civil service this year, further cuts in pensions and a new law permitting mass sackings at larger companies.

The EU’s bail-out programme is due to end in December, leaving the IMF to supervise reforms until March 2016 while disbursing a final €15 billion of loans, an awkward arrangement. Mr Samaras would like to follow the example of Portugal last May and finish the IMF programme early, dispensing with the last round of handouts. “Greece is ready to stand on its feet again,” he claimed, signalling that the coalition would prefer to raise its own financing on the international capital markets.

Ditching the IMF would bring the coalition benefits—a boost in the polls, and perhaps more MPs onside for the presidential vote. But the price of Greek bonds fell sharply after Mr Samaras spoke. It may be too soon to wave the monitors goodbye.