Despite email flap, Clinton up in Iowa in Suffolk poll

Susan Page | USA TODAY

A majority of Iowa Democrats predict the email controversy will hurt Hillary Clinton in next fall's presidential election, a Suffolk University Poll finds, but they are sticking with her anyway.

The former secretary of State holds a daunting 34-percentage-point lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Vice President Biden, who is weighing whether to jump into the race, is third at 11%.

The survey of 500 likely Democratic caucus-goers in the Hawkeye State, taken Thursday through Monday, underscores the strength of Clinton's support and the challenge Biden would face in the nation's opening presidential contest. "There is a fierce loyalty to Hillary Clinton," says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. Her support persists, at least for now, even though 52% of the Iowa Democrats surveyed say the flap over her use of a private email server while leading the State Department would hurt her in the general election.

What's more, Iowa Democrats are somewhat more inclined to identify Sanders as the most honest and trustworthy candidate in the field. They are slightly more likely to say Clinton "best understands the problems facing people like you" and that she "best represents the values of Democrats like yourself."

Overall, 54% support Clinton, 20% Sanders, 11% Biden, 4% former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley and 1% former Virginia senator Jim Webb. That's a wider lead than the 24-point edge she has held in recent Iowa statewide polls averaged by RealClearPolitics. Just 9% volunteer that they are undecided.

Clinton shows particular strength among female voters, backed by 58% to 15% for Sanders and 13% for Biden. If Biden doesn't run, about four in 10 of his supporters say they would support Clinton instead, three in 10 Sanders and two in 10 O'Malley.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The Iowa caucuses have been a tough contest for both Clinton and Biden in the past. In 2008, Clinton unexpectedly trailed in third place, behind Barack Obama and former North Carolina senator John Edwards. Biden finished fifth at only 1%, behind former New Mexico governor Bill Richardson.

In the new poll, more than one in four say the issue of Clinton's emails bothers them; seven in 10 say it doesn't. An overwhelming three of four say they don't think she broke the law; just 9% say she did. The furor and its fallback are among the factors prompting some Democrats to support other candidates. When those who aren't backing Clinton are asked why, 18% say it was because they like other candidates better. Other reasons given included "untrustworthy/dishonest," "email controversy," "has a lot of baggage" and "she's a Clinton."