The invitation for the gala in December read: “In 1991, a group of visionary men and women came together to found the Australian Republican Movement. They did so to advance the belief that our nation deserves government of Australians, for Australians, overseen by an Australian. This 25th anniversary dinner provides an opportunity to acknowledge the leadership and dedication of our founding mothers and fathers, as well as all those who have served the Movement with such distinction.”

The invite promised “a very special guest speaker” to celebrate the occasion.

“Hmmm,” I said to my friend. “I wonder who that could be. You think they’d have that worked out before they issued the invites.”

My friend said, “Surely, it’s Malcolm Turnbull.”

I said, “Surely, it’s not.”

What could Malcolm possibly say to the 25th ARM anniversary dinner?

“Hi folks. Great to be here. Great time to be alive. Great to see you kept the republican flame burning after we lost the referendum in 1999. I can’t believe you kept this campaign going for so long. That 8-week double dissolution election nearly killed me, and I was just doing one event a day.

Now, on the question of an Australian republic, gosh, I wish I could help, but as prime minister, I simply can’t afford the time or energy to support your efforts. I am not able to help in practical terms. But know that I am with you in spirit, and I join you in the hope that, one day, there will be an Australian prime minister willing to mend the nation’s broken heart.”

“Good point,” said my friend. “But maybe that’s his big announcement: he will hold a new republican referendum. It’s a reset of the Turnbull government’s narrative!”

Then we both fell about laughing.

The idea that prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, a founding member of the Australian Republican Movement and its chairman during the 1999 republican referendum, can’t be counted on to speak with conviction or authority at the ARM anniversary dinner – well, that just draws into sharp relief his authenticity problem.

“What’s the point of the Turnbull government?” Labor has taunted the PM in question time for months.

It used to be a catchy catcall across the parliamentary chamber. Now the same question echoes through lounge rooms and newsrooms and boardrooms across Australia.

The republic is just the start of the problem for Turnbull. A few weeks ago I was asked, “Can you name one issue Malcolm Turnbull is passionate about that he is acting on now that he is prime minister?”

Climate change? Nope.

Parliamentary vote on same sex marriage? Nope.

Trumpeting multiculturalism? Turnbull is fond of saying Australia is the most successful multicultural nation on earth. That enthusiasm was notably missing when he was asked if he agreed with his immigration minister Peter Dutton’s observation that the Fraser government failed Australia by not foreseeing that the grandchildren of a very small number of Lebanese Muslim migrants might one day commit crimes. He didn’t endorse Dutton, he didn’t contradict him. He just dodged the question.

An independent Australian foreign policy? In 2011 Turnbull said Australia should avoid “extravagant professions of loyalty and devotion to the United States.” But when Labor’s foreign affairs shadow minister Penny Wong wrote last week that Labor will contemplate how Australian foreign policy might need to change in response to Donald Trump’s election as US president, Turnbull thundered that Wong was putting “our nation’s security at risk.”

Stopping the boats? Turnbull says as opposition leader he “begged” Kevin Rudd not to reverse John Howard’s offshore detention policies. Rudd says that’s not true, and points out Turnbull wasn’t even opposition leader at the time.

Reclaiming the economic narrative? This was one of the key reasons Turnbull challenged Abbott. Since then, wages have slowed, the job participation rate has fallen, and the government’s debt and deficit have ballooned.

Famously, Turnbull also justified his leadership challenge by pointing to the Abbott’s string of 30 losing Newspolls in a row. Media outlets are now tracking Turnbull’s Newspoll losses as if they are a countdown to the next leadership challenge. If you are playing along at home, that’s five down, 25 to go.

The authenticity problem and the polling problems are, of course, linked. For months there has been anticipation in many quarters that the PM was heading for a “real Malcolm” moment, looking for an opportunity to reset his narrative and reclaim his momentum, and just maybe, his authenticity.

If there was ever a time that would happen, the ARM 25th anniversary would be the perfect opportunity. As a republican, I’d welcome it.

But I’m not holding my breath.