MONTREAL—If political unrest had a geographical home in Canada, it would be Quebec. On the heels of two transformative spring seasons, it continues to be the province least happy both with its governance and that of the country.

A recent poll suggests that unhappiness is grounded neither on the right or the left; nor is it fuelled by the usual conflicting takes on Quebec’s political future. If anything, it is a symptom of an increasingly rudderless electorate.

The latest Léger Marketing numbers, published over the Easter weekend, pegged dissatisfaction with the federal Conservative government at 72 per cent. No federal government has been as unpopular for as long in Quebec as the one Stephen Harper leads.

But the Parti Québécois government — in spite of a mantra that has it saying white whenever the federal Conservatives say black — is not faring any better. According to Léger, almost as many Quebecers (69 per cent) are unhappy with Pauline Marois’ minority government.

It used to be possible to connect the dots of a federal or a provincial party’s standing in Quebec with the ebb and flow of the constitutional debate.

As a general rule, federalism and sovereignty operated on a teeter-totter principle. But that symmetry is a thing of the past as most Quebecers have now abandoned the constitutional playground to the chattering class.

While issues related to the Constitution still have more legs than average in the Quebec media, that is not matched by equivalent traction in public opinion.

Since the beginning of the year, the NDP under Thomas Mulcair has promoted the repeal of the federal Clarity Act and confirmed that it would undertake negotiations towards Quebec’s secession on the basis of a simple referendum majority.

The newly elected leader of the Quebec Liberal party, Philippe Couillard, has advocated a new round of efforts to try to patch constitutional relations between Quebec and Canada in time for the country’s 150th anniversary in 2017.

As part of the federal Liberal leadership campaign, former justice minister Martin Cauchon has urged front-runner Justin Trudeau to take a more pro-active approach to Quebec’s longstanding constitutional grievances.

In the process, those politicians and their parties have taken shots at each other; they have endured a barrage of flack — mixed with the odd bit of praise — from commentators of all persuasions. Sovereigntist politicians eager to promote their own solution to the debate have added their grain of salt to the debate.

Léger found that the majority of Quebecers tuned them all out. Only one in four feels it is important to settle the constitutional issue and more than two-thirds don’t want to reopen the discussion. At the same time, only 33 per cent would support sovereignty in a referendum.

By all indications, the next Quebec federal battle will be fought in different trenches from those of the recent past.

It could also feature the full-fledged federalist duel in Quebec since Brian Mulroney took on the Liberals in the 1980s.

For Léger’s data suggest that the Liberals could be coming out of the cold.

In the wake of Couillard’s leadership victory, the party is back in the lead in provincial voting intentions for the first time in more than two years. And when Trudeau’s name is thrown into the federal mix the party emerges with a clear lead over the NDP and the Bloc Québécois.

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In a province whose main feature has become volatility, it will take more than a few polls to pin down a lasting trend. But by the looks of it, Quebec is poised to become the ground zero of the national battle between the NDP and the Liberals.

Expect that fight to get underway just as soon as the new Liberal leader is in place later this month and don’t expect either party to take prisoners.

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