Global Carbon Budgets

How much must global net CO 2 emissions be reduced to meet the Paris Agreement?

The Paris Agreement state that the global temperature increase should be kept well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and that efforts should be pursued to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The IPCC special report on global warming of 1.5ºC (SR15) state that the budget to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels with a 66% probability is 420 GtCO 2 . (1 GtCO 2 = 1 billion tonnes (metric tons) CO 2 .) To make sure that the carbon budget is not overrun, net zero emissions must be achieved before the budget runs out.

Not a lot has happened with regard to emission reductions since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. How much harder will it be to meet the Paris Agreement if we wait even more? What is needed to fulfill the agreement?

Same emission reduction amount every year

One way of modelling emissions reductions is to reduce the emissions with the same amount every year. Every year of delay in action means that the emissions must reach net zero one year earlier.

How much (in GtCO 2 ) must global emissions be reduced per year to reach net zero emissions before the carbon budget runs out? Limit warming above pre-industrial levels to 1.5ºC 1.6ºC 1.75ºC 2.0ºC with a probability of 33 50 67 percent. No action is taken until the year Note: This scenario can't tell what the warming will likely be, only when the budget runs out, since net zero emissions are not reached before the budget runs out. .

. . .

Same percentage of emission reductions every year

Another possible way of modelling emissions is to reduce the emissions by the same percentage amount every year, e.g. a 10% reduction of emissions every year. In the calculations below, all years with emissions above 1/100th of the emissions the start year are counted.

How much (in percent) must global emissions be reduced per year to reach net zero emissions before the carbon budget runs out? Limit warming above pre-industrial levels to 1.5ºC 1.6ºC 1.75ºC 2.0ºC with a probability of 33 50 67 percent. No action is taken until the year Note: This scenario can't tell what the warming will likely be, only when the budget runs out, since net zero emissions are not reached before the budget runs out. .

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2030 goal vs net zero goal

The Emission Gap Report 2019 state that global GHG emissions would need to be 55% lower in 2030 than in 2018, to limit global warming to below 1.5ºC. The SR15 report state that net zero CO2 emissions must be reached in 2050 to be able to limit global warming to below 1.5ºC.

Since the total warming is depending on the total amount of CO2 emitted, there is a relationship between the 2030 goal and the net zero goal. If emissions are reduced more to 2030, the net zero point can happen later in time. Conversely, if emission are not reduced enough in 2030, the net zero point must happen a lot sooner.

What is the relationship between the 2030 and the net zero goals? Limit warming above pre-industrial levels to 1.5ºC 1.6ºC 1.75ºC 2.0ºC with a probability of 33 50 67 percent. No action is taken until the year Reduce emissions to 2030 by percent compared to 2018. Note: This scenario can't tell what the warming will likely be, only when the budget runs out, since net zero emissions are not reached before the budget runs out. . . .

Flat or increasing emissions

The 2017 emissions reduced the budget by 42 ± 3 GtCO 2 per year, which means that with todays emission levels, the 1.5°C warming with a 66% probability budget of 420 GtCO 2 runs out in 10 years (420/42). Currently, CO 2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are increasing with about 1% per year, and increased 2.7% in 2018. (Burning fossil fuels is by far the biggest contributor to CO 2 emissions.)

How long does the budget last if global emissions continue increasing or stay flat? Limit warming above pre-industrial levels to 1.5ºC 1.6ºC 1.75ºC 2.0ºC with a probability of 33 50 67 percent. Increase emissions by percent per year. Note: This scenario can't tell what the warming will likely be, only when the budget runs out, since net zero emissions are not reached before the budget runs out. . . .

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© 2020 Patrik Erdes