Two years ago, considering the blocksize debate, I made two attempts to measure average bandwidth growth, first using Akamai serving numbers (which gave an answer of 17% per year), and then using fixed-line broadband data from OFCOM UK, which gave an answer of 30% per annum.

We have two years more of data since then, so let’s take another look.

OFCOM (UK) Fixed Broadband Data

First, the OFCOM data:

Average download speed in November 2008 was 3.6Mbit

Average download speed in November 2014 was 22.8Mbit

Average download speed in November 2016 was 36.2Mbit

Average upload speed in November 2008 to April 2009 was 0.43Mbit/s

Average upload speed in November 2014 was 2.9Mbit

Average upload speed in November 2016 was 4.3Mbit

So in the last two years, we’ve seen 26% increase in download speed, and 22% increase in upload, bringing us down from 36/37% to 33% over the 8 years. The divergence of download and upload improvements is concerning (I previously assumed they were the same, but we have to design for the lesser of the two for a peer-to-peer system).

The idea that upload speed may be topping out is reflected in the Nov-2016 report, which notes only an 8% upload increase in services advertised as “30Mbit” or above.

Akamai’s State Of The Internet Reports

Now let’s look at Akamai’s Q1 2016 report and Q1-2017 report.

Annual global average speed in Q1 2015 – Q1 2016: 23%

Annual global average speed in Q1 2016 – Q1 2017: 15%

This gives an estimate of 19% per annum in the last two years. Reassuringly, the US and UK (both fairly high-bandwidth countries, considered in my previous post to be a good estimate for the future of other countries) have increased by 26% and 19% in the last two years, indicating there’s no immediate ceiling to bandwidth.

You can play with the numbers for different geographies on the Akamai site.

Conclusion: 19% Is A Conservative Estimate

17% growth now seems a little pessimistic: in the last 9 years the US Akamai numbers suggest the US has increased by 19% per annum, the UK by almost 21%. The gloss seems to be coming off the UK fixed-broadband numbers, but they’re still 22% upload increase for the last two years. Even Australia and the Philippines have managed almost 21%.