



The population growth (about 1.47%) is one of the most serious problems we are facing at the moment. The present 162.2 million people, crammed in about 56,977 sq. miles (1,47,570 sq. km), and high fertility rate are a challenge to our economic and ecological viability. All our economic efforts for national development are

nullified by the ever-growing population every year.

In the next decades, if steps are not taken now, we will not have sufficient land to cultivate to meet our increasing demand for food grains or for building industries, and urban expansion.

In 1600 AD there were only 4 million people living in Bangladesh. It has taken thousands of years to reach the present number. We do not have any record of population prior to 1600 AD. It is found that after the end of the Sepoy Mutiny there was a sharp rise in population.

In 222 years (1650 to 1872 AD) the country's population rose by 12.6 million (1.26 crore), which, in fifty years (1931) increased by 15.2 (1.52 crore). From the last census report of 2001, it is evident that between 1961-2001 the population increased by 123.1 (12.31 crore). In forty years the population increased by 77 million (7.70 crore). The population was in 75 million 1971, and in less than 40 years it has crossed 152 million.

Out of the total population (162.2 million), men and women were about 82.8 million and 79.4 million respectively. The age structure of the population is not favourable for economic development since about 42% are under 15 years of age. This increases the dependency ratio and creates pressure on various social sector services.

As age is the prime determinant of labour force, population growth leads to an increase in the working-age population over a period of time, which exerts pressure because of high levels of unemployment.

The urban population is growing at a faster rate (about 7%) than the rural population -- slum dwellers are distressed migrants from rural areas and most of them live below the absolute poverty line. In the slums of metropolitan cities, tens of thousands of people shelter in huts made of cardboard with polythene roofs.

There is no running water and no sanitation. The stench is overpowering: garbage and human waste heap up in piles. The poverty of the slum population is further aggravated by the fact that the government's development efforts devoted to the slum population are less than those for rural population.

Fertility rate and its implication for economic growth have become increasingly important in our predominantly agrarian economy because our development plans aim at increasing per capita income and standard of living of the majority of the people of the villages. Thus, the problem of population growth in relation to economic development of our developing economy involves consideration of:

Size of the population;

Rate of population growth and

Age distribution pattern of the population.

Age distribution pattern of the population.

Our rural as well as national development depends on population growth. Since long, our population has been overwhelmingly rural in character. In 2001, 77% of the population of the country was rural (about 7%3 now), but in 1961 the proportion was 94.81%. Because of the magnitude of the rural population our economic structure is agricultural. As such, it would be worthwhile to examine the general age structure of our society to understand the characteristics of socio-economic phenomena, which are directly related to it.

One of the main problems of socio-economic development of our society has resulted from its unbalanced age structure and the large dependent population. If the dependency ratio is about 1% a country is said to be over-populated. The dependency ratio in our country is high, which is alarming in view of the economic and demographic condition.

The high agricultural density together with a massive population growth potential puts tremendous pressure on the existing land and resources. In addition, it has become difficult to meet the nutritional demands of the people. Because of the growing number of the poor, it has become even more difficult to get them within the reach of development programmes.

To increase economic growth, population must be regulated through capital formation, which can ensure a greater rate of productivity at the existing standard of living. Taking into consideration the rate of population growth at about 1.5% for feeding 1.5%more people, we require 10.2% increase in capital formation. But capital formation does not exceed 5%, and it is difficult to keep pace with the population growth with so little capital formation.

The development interventions do not incorporate any concern about maintaining demographic balance through streamlined population policy and conservation of environmental resources. When the population base is extremely high it harms per capita well-being and per capita consumption. The fundamental condition for economic growth is population growth at the desired level.

Industrialised nations are attempting to distribute their considerable wealth more equitably, but the underdeveloped as well as developing nations are struggling simply to achieve a bare subsistence level for most of their people. An agrarian country like Bangladesh has to contend with other serious internal problems as well as the problems of education, health, involvement of women in development work, political stability and people's participation.

Population pressure has already created additional demands on the scare land, water and other non-renewable resources, thereby making it increasingly difficult to support the increasing number of human beings. The declining land to man ratio as well as the limited absorptive capacity of agriculture have pushed a vast number of people from rural to urban areas. Without any concomitant industrialisation and creation of urban amenities and facilities, most of the migrants end up in informal sector jobs and live in deplorable conditions in slums and shanty towns.

Whatever issue the society attempts to solve -- hunger, environmental disruption, economic growth or stagnation in its various forms -- it seems safe to say that unless the problem of population is confronted first or at least simultaneously, a satisfactory solution is unlikely to be found. Without substantial decrease in fertility, improvement in socio-economic conditions will be difficult if not possible to achieve.

A significant change in fertility pattern will not occur unless overall development strategies are designed to involve both men and women equally. So, the organisational and management structures of family planning and population control programmes have to be strengthened to achieve the desired goal.

Dr. Mohammad Mohiuddin Abdullah Is Joint Chief, Prl, Planning Commission. Email: Dr.abdullah.bd@gmail.com