It’s long been assumed that it would be decades before machines could do work that requires more than routine manual or even cognitive labor. But with the development of artificial intelligence that can use that vast wealth of data the computer era has brought to teach itself, machines are becoming able to teach themselves, and may well be able to do much of the work done by humans sooner than we expected, writes Scott Santens at Medium.

We’re not talking about one or two people getting laid off. Or a hundred. Or thousands. We’re talking about hundreds of millions of jobs — jobs involving thought and choices that people once thought machines could never replace. One AI now being beta tested by some companies has learned how to do the work of call center employees, and she (her name is Amelia) has been getting better and better at it. “Because of this, it’s been estimated that she can put 250 million people out of a job, worldwide.”

The solution to a planet full of people with no work? Santens says we may need to rethink the whole concept of income — as some countries are already starting to do — and consider the idea of universal basic income — guaranteeing all citizens an unconditional paycheck.

“Do you want half of people to starve because they literally can’t add economic value, or not?” Santens quotes Jeremy Howard, a prominent data scientist. “If the answer is not, then the smartest way to distribute the wealth is by implementing a universal basic income.”

The upside is that people could then choose to do what is most meaningful to them, rather than settle for what would likely be starvation wages. Although he doesn’t quite say it, it seems the downside would be much, much higher taxes on business and a lot fewer wealthy individuals. But then, the new employees — machines — don’t need much in the way of paychecks and stuff. So far.

I’m reminded of the recent debate over whether to raise the state minimum wage to $15 an hour. Proponents argued that people should be paid enough for a full time job so that they don’t have to go on public assistance (which $15 won’t necessarily do); others countered that at some point, companies will find it more profitable to install machines. This is far, far beyond that discussion.