A deflationary Bacon Cheeseburger Index combined with optimistic Google searches for timeshares reflect a U.S. economy in flux — and, likely, a Federal Reserve in flux.

These readings, plus snapshots of car buying, gun ownership, food-stamp demand and more, make up the “Off the Grid Indicators” report that creator Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the New York–based global brokerage Convergex, argues pushes economic sleuthing beyond the obvious payrolls report or consumer price index.

Read:U.S. adds 215,000 new jobs in March as more workers enter labor force

“ Government data often strip out volatile food prices, but market strategist Nicholas Colas and company say doing so miscalculates inflation expectations among shoppers. ”

Highlights from the current edition of the now five-year-old quarterly report, especially when combined with traditional government- and industry-issued data and anecdotes, indicate the Fed can be slow with raising interest rates, Colas said. The Fed’s next two meetings come later this month and then in June.

Read:Fed will likely hike rates in June in wake of jobs report, economists say

Convergex even trademarked its “Bacon Cheeseburger Index,” an evenly split minibasket of the popular beef-bacon-and-cheese combo that can serve as a relatable inflation gauge. Government data often strip out volatile food prices, but Colas and company say doing so miscalculates inflation expectations among food-conscious shoppers.

As of the first quarter, thanks to price declines in all three of these cholesterol commodities, a bacon cheeseburger now costs 5.1% less than a year ago, the Convergex report shows.

A look back at the Bacon Cheeseburger Index to 1990 finds that it is actually a decent indicator of deflation risk. Prior periods when the BCI turned resoundingly negative (3% or more) since 1990 include: 2009 (financial crisis); 1998 (emerging market and Long Term Capital collapse), and 1992 (the lead up to the Iraq invasion). In each case, the Fed was cutting interest rates, not raising them.

“So should the Fed actually use the Bacon Cheeseburger Index? Of course not. But does it help explain in one compact, if anecdotal, form why the Federal Reserve is happy to hold off on rate increases? I think it does,” said Colas.

Here are some of the report’s other findings:

• Since Google GOOGL, -2.41% searches may reveal consumer behavior, Colas looked at what the search engine “autocompletes” when users type “I want to buy” and “I want to sell.” The algorithm attempts to predict the rest of a query based on what others have attached to the same starting words. “A house” has been the No. 1 autocomplete for “I want to buy” since the first quarter of 2015 and remains on top this quarter. And moving up to No. 2 for “buy” is “a timeshare.” That’s an economic positive for both the primary- and secondary-residence markets. Rounding out the top four are “a car” and “stock.” For “I want to sell,” the top three answers are “car,” “house” and — believe it or not — “kidney.” Kidney-sale searches were popular during the last recession — then, and now, illegal in the U.S.

“ ‘So should the Fed actually use the Bacon Cheeseburger Index? Of course not.’ ” — Nicholas Colas

• Used-vehicle prices remained stable and pickup truck sales still showed positive comps versus last year, in fact rising 8% on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter. That typically means two things: that consumers weren’t limiting their buying to used cars over new and stronger that small-business growth is demanding more pickup trucks in service.

• Data on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP (often called food stamps), can shed light on how deep the economic “recovery” has run through the strata of American society. Prior to the financial crisis (2006 fiscal-year data), there were 26.5 million Americans enrolled in SNAP. That number rose to a peak of 47.6 million in 2013 but has only declined to 45.8 million as of the end of the last government fiscal year in September, according to the Convergex findings.

• Background checks by the FBI for firearm purchases hit a new record 23.1 million last year. At an average transaction price of $600, that equates to $14 billion in firearms sales. Also worth noting: Google Trend data (the number of searches for a specific term) for “buy a gun” are at multiyear lows. Colas surmised that could mean repeat buyers are responsible for the recent growth, since they have no need to search for a federal firearms dealer. Colas has loosely tied gun buying to wavering American sentiment; his research presumes that greater confidence in the economy is tied to confidence in personal security, although the data do not necessarily take into account any law changes that may impact data from one period to another.

• Nervous Americans also continued to stash their savings in the relative safety of precious-metal coins. On a rolling six-month basis, the mint is selling $87 million of gold coins per month now versus $62 million per month a year ago. As for silver bullion, the current average selling rate is $63 million per month versus $69 million last year at this time. Worth noting: Both figures far exceed the amount of incremental capital invested in U.S. equity mutual funds, which is negative $23 billion so far in 2016, according to the Investment Company Institute.