Many were surprised by Mayor Pete’s announcement today that he was suspending his campaign. Less than a month ago, amid a chaotic caucus in Iowa, he proclaimed to his supporters that they had “made history” and "shocked the nation". For a brief moment, when he and Bernie were neck-and-neck in Iowa and New Hampshire, many of us believed a President Buttigieg was a serious possibility.

But South Carolina was the first real test of whether the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana had managed to connect with the African American voters he’d been accused of failing. At the ballot box, their judgment was unequivocal. He had not done enough. Exit polls showed younger black voters were slightly more likely to give him the benefit of the doubt, but almost no middle-aged black voters came out for him at all. They didn’t know who he was, he hadn’t put decades of work in with their communities, and he had blundered when faced with racial controversies in South Bend.

Despite a less than encouraging performance in South Carolina, however, most of us were expecting Mayor Pete to stay on for Super Tuesday in two days’ time. Just yesterday, on Saturday morning, his campaign manager was talking about their Super Tuesday strategy to a reporter at the New York Times. It’s no exaggeration to say that something must have changed overnight.

Multiple theories are afoot, ranging from the vaguely conspiratorial — the Bernie-hating DNC want to back a moderate, so told Klobuchar, Biden and Buttigieg that one of them had to drop out — to the slightly more likely — a back-room deal made with a candidate still in the race. Has Pete agreed to run as VP on a joint ticket with Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar or Elizabeth Warren in an effort to prevent Bernie Sanders from rising easily to the top? It’s possible. If it’s true, then my bet would be on Warren as his running-mate: she has been publicly distancing herself from Sanders in the past few weeks, while at the same time quietly winding back a lot of her most left-leaning proposals, including Medicare for All. Warren has been struggling in caucuses and primaries, but has promised to stay in until the Democratic convention in July; so she’s either bluffing or she’s been concocting a strategy to inject new energy into her campaign with someone else behind the scenes. If it’s not a case of a VP deal, however, it could be a much more straightforward and less risky case of throwing his weight behind Biden and guaranteeing himself a prestigious cabinet position in the event of a future Biden administration.

Equally, Pete may genuinely have no plans for this presidential race. At 38 years old, he was only just old enough to qualify to run for president in the first place (the highest office in the land is reserved for over-35s only.) In debates, Buttigieg made the most of his youthful status, somewhat mischievously interrupting both Biden and Bernie at least once to say, “When I’m as old as you, I hope to look back and think…” Unfortunately, leaning so heavily on his age may have backfired. It underlined his lack of experience; being responsible for a city of 100,000 people is very different to being responsible for a country of 327 million, and few Democrats are in the mood for a gamble after Donald Trump.

Buttigieg is young enough to hold back and wait until he’s accrued a bit more of that vital political experience now that he’s made a national name for himself. No one can deny that he is a fantastic orator and a solid debater. This first presidential run may well be just the beginning of his outreach, and we may see a President Buttigieg in the White House yet. If he is planning a future run, then he may have decided that quitting while he was ahead rather than facing further damaging losses in Super Tuesday would be reputationally smarter, providing him with a springboard from which to launch a similar campaign in 2024 or 2028.

The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Show all 25 1 /25 The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Bernie Sanders The Vermont senator has launched a second bid for president after losing out to Hilary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primaries. He is running on a similar platform of democratic socialist reform Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Joe Biden The former vice president recently faced scrutiny for inappropriate touching of women, but was thought to deal with the criticism well and has since maintained a front runner status in national polling EPA The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Elizabeth Warren The Massachusetts senator is a progressive Democrat, and a major supporter of regulating Wall Street Reuters The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is a Minnesota senator who earned praise for her contribution to the Brett Kavanaugh hearings Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Michael Bloomberg Michael Bloomberg, a late addition to the 2020 race, announced his candidacy after months of speculation in November. He has launched a massive ad-buying campaign and issued an apology for the controversial "stop and frisk" programme that adversely impacted minority communities in New York City when he was mayor Getty Images The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Tulsi Gabbard The Hawaii congresswoman announced her candidacy in January, but has faced tough questions on her past comments on LGBT+ rights and her stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Pete Buttigieg The centrist Indiana mayor and war veteran would be the first openly LGBT+ president in American history Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Deval Patrick The former Massachusetts governor launched a late 2020 candidacy and received very little reception. With just a few short months until the first voters flock to the polls, the former governor is running as a centrist and believes he can unite the party's various voting blocs AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Beto O'Rourke The former Texas congressman formally launched his bid for the presidency in March. He ran on a progressive platform, stating that the US is driven by "gross differences in opportunity and outcome" AP The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kamala Harris The former California attorney general was introduced to the national stage during Jeff Sessions’ testimony. She has endorsed Medicare-for-all and proposed a major tax-credit for the middle class AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Bill De Blasio The New York mayor announced his bid on 16 May 2019. He emerged in 2013 as a leading voice in the left wing of his party but struggled to build a national profile and has suffered a number of political setbacks in his time as mayor AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Steve Bullock The Montana governor announced his bid on 14 May. He stated "We need to defeat Donald Trump in 2020 and defeat the corrupt system that lets campaign money drown out the people's voice, so we can finally make good on the promise of a fair shot for everyone." He also highlighted the fact that he won the governor's seat in a red [Republican] state Reuters The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Cory Booker The New Jersey Senator has focused on restoring kindness and civility in American politics throughout his campaign, though he has failed to secure the same level of support and fundraising as several other senators running for the White House in 2020 Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Wayne Messam Mayor of the city of Miramar in the Miami metropolitan area, Wayne Messam said he intended to run on a progressive platform against the "broken" federal government. He favours gun regulations and was a signatory to a letter from some 400 mayors condemning President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord Vice News The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kirsten Gillibrand The New York Senator formally announced her presidential bid in January, saying that “healthcare should be a right, not a privilege” Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Delaney The Maryland congressman was the first to launch his bid for presidency, making the announcement in 2017 AP The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Andrew Yang The entrepreneur announced his presidential candidacy by pledging that he would introduce a universal basic income of $1,000 a month to every American over the age of 18 Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Julian Castro The former San Antonio mayor announced his candidacy in January and said that his running has a “special meaning” for the Latino community in the US Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Marianne Williamson The author and spiritual adviser has announced her intention to run for president. She had previously run for congress as an independent in 2014 but was unsuccessful Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Eric Swalwell One of the younger candidates, Swalwell has served on multiple committees in the House of Representatives. He intended to make gun control central to his campaign but dropped out after his team said it was clear there was no path to victory Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Seth Moulton A Massachusetts congressman, Moulton is a former US soldier who is best known for trying to stop Nancy Pelosi from becoming speaker of the house. He dropped out of the race after not polling well in key states Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Jay Inslee Inslee has been governor of Washington since 2013. His bid was centred around climate change AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Hickenlooper The former governor of Colorado aimed to sell himself as an effective leader who was open to compromise, but failed to make a splash on the national stage Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tim Ryan Ohio representative Tim Ryan ran on a campaign that hinged on his working class roots, though his messaging did not appear to resonate with voters Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tom Steyer Democratic presidential hopeful billionaire and philanthropist Tom Steyer is a longtime Democratic donor AFP/Getty

Why go this far, take all those donations, attend all those rallies and print out all that merchandise if the plan was to drop out all along then, you may wonder? I doubt this was the plan all along, but in the past few weeks, Buttigieg and his advisers may have sat down and talked about the fact that Bernie Sanders has an excellent shot at being the Democratic nominee this year. Being the moderate who blocked Bernie in 2016 did nothing for Hillary Clinton. It would be risky for Pete as well. And if Bernie did end up losing badly to Trump in November — if a “reds under the bed” socialist scare campaign does serious damage to the Senator from Vermont and the entire party with him — then Buttigieg may well want to dissociate himself with the Democrats of 2020, in the same way that many British Labour politicians sought to distance themselves from the party during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. Walking away now means he protects himself either way: he avoids the ire of the Bernie Bros and he avoids being painted with the socialist brush during his long political career ahead.

In a moving speech in Indiana tonight opened by his husband Chasten, Buttigieg declared that he felt he had a political "responsibility" to step away, and spoke of supporting a candidate with a "broad base" (so, not Sanders) who offered a "new kind of politics" (which didn't exactly sound like Biden either.) He spoke humorously and energetically. His supporters chanted, "2024, 2024!" while he put on a bashful smile.