WR Target Analysis Entering Week 8

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Jarvis Landry led all wide receivers in targets with 15. Landry (0.45) and A.J. Green (0.42) were the only receivers who account for 40 plus percent of their team’s target share. Robby Anderson led all receivers in Air Yards with 219, but was only able to convert them into 44 receiving yards.

Nelson Agholor (2.50) led all receivers with six or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Landry (1.12) had the highest Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week I will share statistical observations regarding a player from each tier that you should know about heading into Week 8.

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Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 1 Jarvis Landry CLE 7 15 10 97 25.7 1 Stefon Diggs MIN 7 15 8 33 10.6 3 AJ Green CIN 7 14 7 117 18.7 4 Julio Jones ATL 7 12 9 104 17.4

Julio Jones is averaging 12 targets and 0.6 red zone targets per game this season. He has yet to score a receiving touchdown, but is averaging 116 receiving yards and 163 Air Yards per game. Positive regression is coming for Jones. He will be in a position to be a league winner with a favorable fantasy playoff schedule that includes matchups against the Packers, Cardinals, and Panthers secondary.

Julio Jones is still scoreless this season. His 812 receiving yards are the most through a team's first 7 games without a TD. (via @EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/gQrqYCv6AS — NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 23, 2018

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 5 Odell Beckham Jr NYG 7 11 8 143 28.2 5 Devin Funchess CAR 7 11 6 62 18.2 5 Mike Evans TB 7 11 7 107 17.7 8 Adam Thielen MIN 7 10 9 110 26 8 Alshon Jeffery PHI 7 10 7 88 21.8 8 Tyreek Hill KC 7 10 7 68 20.6 8 Donte Moncrief JAX 7 10 7 76 14.6 8 Robby Anderson NYJ 7 10 3 44 7.4

Mike Evans is in the midst of his most effective season. He has caught 73 percent of his targets and as a result currently has the highest receiving fantasy points over expectation per target of his career. Evans is averaging nine targets and 130 Air Yards per game.

Bucs targets in 2.5 games with Jameis Winston this season: Mike Evans (21)

Chris Godwin (18)

Adam Humphries (18)

DeSean Jackson (17)

OJ Howard (13) — Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 25, 2018

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 13 Michael Thomas NO 7 9 7 69 19.9 13 Tajae Sharpe TEN 7 9 7 101 17.1 13 Michael Crabtree BAL 7 9 5 66 11.6 13 Adam Humphries TB 7 9 4 37 7.7

Michael Thomas is averaging 10 targets, 2.3 red zone targets, 98 receiving yards, 0.7 touchdowns, and 69 Air Yards per game. Albert Wilson (334), Adam Thielen (280), and Golden Tate (244) are the only receivers with more yards after the catch than Thomas (243).

Most receiving yards since the start of 2016

Julio Jones 3,665

Antonio Brown 3,295

Adam Thielen 3,065

DeAndre Hopkins 3,039

Michael Thomas 2,970 — Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) October 23, 2018

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 17 Sterling Shepard NYG 7 8 5 167 21.7 17 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 7 8 3 50 14 17 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 7 8 4 40 14 17 Julian Edelman NE 7 8 5 36 14.6 17 Will Fuller HOU 7 8 6 68 12.8 17 Cole Beasley DAL 7 8 7 56 12.6 17 Chad Williams ARI 7 8 4 34 7.4

DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 10 targets, 1.7 red zone targets, 101 receiving yards, and 146 Air Yards per game. The probability is high that Will Fuller suffered a torn ACL last night against the Dolphins which will result in additional targets for Hopkins moving forward.

Most Targeted WR's Heading Into Week 8 1. Adam Thielen (91)

T2. Julio Jones (81)

T2.Jarvis Landry (81)

4. Odell Beckham (80)

5. Stefon Diggs (74)

6. Antonio Brown (72)

T7. DeAndre Hopkins (71)

T7. Davante Adams (71)

9. A.J. Green (69)

10. Michael Crabtree (64)#FantasyFootball — Donnie Druin (@DonnieDruin) October 25, 2018

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 24 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 7 7 6 102 27.32 24 John Brown BAL 7 7 7 134 26.4 24 Danny Amendola MIA 7 7 6 84 20.4 24 Josh Gordon NE 7 7 4 100 14 24 Robert Woods LAR 7 7 5 78 13.4 24 Sammy Watkins KC 7 7 4 74 11.4 24 Chris Hogan NE 7 7 6 63 12.3 24 Willie Snead BAL 7 7 3 23 6.6 24 Anthony Miller CHI 7 7 2 35 5.5 24 D.J. Chark JAX 7 7 4 31 7.1 24 Keelan Cole JAX 7 7 2 21 4.1 24 Nelson Agholor PHI 7 7 6 20 8 24 Corey Davis TEN 7 7 3 10 4

Josh Gordon continues to see his number of snaps played increase in addition to his targets per game with the Patriots over the last two games. He leads the Patriots wide receivers in targets (16), receiving yards (142), and Air Yards (186) over that time frame.

Josh Gordon is not human. pic.twitter.com/JmeqVHQJRC — Pats Pulpit (@patspulpit) October 21, 2018

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Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 37 Allen Hurns DAL 7 6 5 74 12.4 37 Golden Tate DET 7 6 4 36 10.6 37 Torrey Smith CAR 7 6 4 61 10.1 37 Chris Godwin TB 7 6 5 59 10.9 37 Christian Kirk ARI 7 6 3 57 8.7 37 Tre’Quan Smith NO 7 6 3 44 7.4 37 Calvin Ridley ATL 7 6 5 43 9.3 37 Demaryius Thomas DEN 7 6 5 42 9.2 37 Josh Doctson WAS 7 6 3 42 7.2 37 Andre Roberts NYJ 7 6 2 21 4.1

Tre’Quan Smith played 73 percent of the offensive snaps last week and accumulated 68 Air Yards. He will continue to see an expanded role to fill the void left by Ted Ginn. If Smith is somehow available in your league he should be rostered immediately.

Here's how Tre'Quan Smith's promise — literally — and these other traits have #Saints WR on upswing https://t.co/WRxACfdPlU — New Orleans Advocate (@theadvocateno) October 26, 2018

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 47 Michael Gallup DAL 7 5 3 81 17.1 47 Brandin Cooks LAR 7 5 4 64 17.1 47 Keenan Allen LAC 7 5 5 72 12.2 47 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 7 5 4 71 11.1 47 D.J. Moore CAR 7 5 3 29 5.9 47 Zay Jones BUF 7 5 3 27 5.7 47 Marquise Goodwin SF 7 5 2 24 4.4 47 Allen Robinson CHI 7 5 1 4 1.4

Kelvin Benjamin has accumulated 10 targets, 114 receiving yards, and 170 Air Yards over the last two weeks. He’s only averaged five targets and 31 receiving yards per game this season, but has averaged 91 Air Yards per game. Benjamin is simply a name to monitor if he’s available in your league especially in deeper formats.

LeSean McCoy, Kelvin Benjamin, Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson. The four names that come up the most when Bills fans discuss who could be traded by Tuesday. I take a look at all four situations and what the team could and should do: https://t.co/AraRQmsJcg — Sal Capaccio 🏈 (@SalSports) October 25, 2018

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 55 Tyrell Williams LAC 7 4 4 118 21.8 55 T.Y. Hilton IND 7 4 4 25 18.5 55 DeSean Jackson TB 7 4 2 25 11.3 55 Chester Rogers IND 7 4 4 40 8 55 Marvin Jones DET 7 4 3 29 5.9 55 Tyler Boyd CIN 7 4 3 27 5.7 55 Taylor Gabriel CHI 7 4 3 26 5.6 55 Dede Westbrook JAX 7 4 4 17 5.7 55 JJ Nelson ARI 7 4 2 8 3.5

Tyrell Williams has had a high floor this season, but he is only averaging four targets per game. His average depth of target or aDOT over the last two games is 25.8.

Since the start of last season, @HoustonTexans Will Fuller is tied for the 6th-most receiving touchdowns of 20+ air yards in the NFL (6). Only Robby Anderson (10), Tyreek Hill (8), Tyrell Williams (7) and DeAndre Hopkins (7) have more deep TDs in that span.#MIAvsHOU #Texans pic.twitter.com/dNaHe3PtL7 — Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 26, 2018

WHAT MATCHUPS CAN YOU EXPLOIT OVER THE NEXT FIVE WEEKS?

The core idea of the Buy Low Machine at RotoViz is to use the strength of schedule to identify wide receivers whose matchups during certain weeks may cause them to either underperform or over perform. This is an excellent app to pair with the statistics I discuss in this column to help make start or sit decisions. This app is also useful to find receivers to buy low on as we approach the trade deadlines in many fantasy football leagues. What observations do you have after viewing the chart above?

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

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Thanks & Good Luck Week 8