ALBANY — Could a blue wave be heading to the Capital Region on April 24?

Democrats are hopeful that their national momentum since the election of President Donald Trump will carry over into New York, where they're trying to wrestle away from Republicans the state Assembly seats previously held by Steve McLaughlin and Pete Lopez.

For more than a year, special elections across the country have repeatedly resulted in Democratic candidates outperforming the party's past results. There have been notable headline-grabbing surprises in deep-red territory — including the election of Democrat Doug Jones to the U.S. Senate from Alabama and a congressional win in Pennsylvania by Conor Lamb — but smaller upsets and even narrow losses highlight a recurring trend of enthusiastic Democratic voters disrupting expectations.

The wave crashed on Long Island last spring when Democrat Christine Pellegrino won an Assembly seat in a district that had been in Republican hands for decades, and had voted overwhelming for Trump in 2016. For politicians and campaign operatives across the state, that race was a close-to-home indicator of what could happen in a special election, where turnout is abysmally low and a gap in enthusiasm among voters could make all the difference when the votes are tallied.

Now the movement is being tested in the Capital Region, where Troy Democrat Cindy Doran takes on Schodack Republican Jake Ashby to replace McLaughlin in the Republican-leaning 107th Assembly District, which includes Rensselaer County and a portion of Washington and Columbia counties. In the 102nd District — which includes Schoharie and Greene counties and parts of Albany, Columbia, Delaware, Otsego and Ulster counties — Durham Democrat Aidan O'Connor, Schoharie Republican Chris Tague and Middleburgh independent candidate Wes Laraway are vying to succeed Lopez.

McLaughlin was elected Rensselaer County executive in November, while Lopez was appointed as regional administrator of the federal Environmental Protection Agency in September.

Ashby said he's not paying attention to signs of Democratic inroads elsewhere around the state and nation. "I'm definitely concerned when I see trends like that, but I'm trying to focus on the local issues," he said.

The Republicans who tapped Ashby to run are confident he can turn back the Democratic tide. "We picked somebody that transcends a lot of the partisan debates," said local Republican operative Rich Crist, who managed McLaughlin's run for county executive. "We're not seeing any enthusiasm gap."

Doran is hoping Democratic excitement will hand her an upset. She said voters fed up with the president could make the special election a localized referendum on national politics, even while she tries to talk about her career and regional issues.

"It's going to carry over into this race — because frankly, my predecessor operated like Trump," Doran said. McLaughlin's final months in the Assembly were dogged by the revelation that he had used abusive language against a female aide, and he was sanctioned by the chamber's ethics committee — after election day — for allegedly asking another lawmaker's aide for nude photos.

Doran said that McLaughlin tapped Ashby to run. "I feel like at times I'm running against Steve McLaughlin," she said.

Ashby, however, calls McLaughlin "a positive influence. I think he is certainly helping."

In the more conservative 102nd District, the partisan levees preventing a Democratic wave are higher: Lopez netted about two-thirds of the vote in the district in 2012, the last time he had an opponent. But Tague isn't taking anything for granted in his bid, and is fully aware of the Democratic enthusiasm across the country.

"Anybody who says anything different to you would be lying," Tague said.

One warning sign of a potential wave in the rural district is the fact that O'Connor isn't shying away from his political identity: Instead of running as a nonpartisan candidate, he's embracing a progressive Democratic agenda.

Turnout vs. issues

The romanticized notion that elections are solely decided on the day's issues gets a dose of reality whenever special elections roll around. With only a tiny fraction of the electorate participating, the challenge for campaigns is to simply motivate voters to show up.

"Special elections are a completely different animal" than what happens in November, Tague said.

On the ballot Snapshot of the candidates: Jake Ashby (R, C, I, Reform) A military veteran and member of the Rensselaer County Legislature;

Wants to cut state spending, including waste in the Medicaid program;

Believes school safety should be the purview of local districts. Cindy Doran (D, WFP, Women's Equality) A former business teacher and member of the Rensselaer County Legislature;

Argues that as a Democrat she would be better positioned to deliver results for the district in a chamber dominated by her party;

Invested in securing public education funding and accessible health care. Chris Tague (R, C, I, Reform) A former dairy farmer;

Currently serves as Schoharie town supervisor;

Cut taxes in the town's recent budget. Aidan O'Connor (D, WFP, Women's Equality) Works as an emergency first responder and serves on the Greene County Legislature;

Will defend the Medicaid services that rural communities rely on;

Committed to bringing the same energy as former-Assemblyman Pete Lopez See More Collapse

All four major candidates have been campaigning at a breakneck pace, which for some began in December — two months before April's special elections were called by Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Despite the frantic campaigning, though, it's unlikely that any of the candidates will have enough time or resources to get their messages out to all the voters.

"I think these two races are going to come down to who can get the vote out," said Libby Post of Capital Women, a progressive organization formed in response to Trump's election that's backing Doran and O'Connor.

Post's group is hosting postcard parties where they craft hundreds of personal cards to alert voters about the imminent vote.

Despite these efforts, Crist is confident in the Republican effort to get out the vote in the 107th District. "It's going to be a low-turnout race, and we're more engaged in the grass roots than they are," he said.

Tague said he has knocked on 4,000 doors, and believed people were motivated to vote after the encounters. "I noticed that in the last two weeks people are starting to know who I am when I come to the door," he said.

Outside influence

A major force in the Democratic win on Long Island last year was the effort by NYSUT, the powerful state teachers union that invested about $200,000 in an independent expenditure campaign focused on getting out the vote. In that race, NYSUT members voted at a rate that was double that of the general public.

The union is trying to repeat that performance in the 107th District, where local members account for almost 5 percent of the registered vote – a large voting bloc for an election where turnout will likely be less than 20 percent of the electorate.

"We have nearly 4,000 members in the 107th Assembly District. They are passionate about education and they vote," said NYSUT spokesman Carl Korn. "They are already working hard on Cindy Doran's campaign, knocking on doors and volunteering for phone banks."

Doran also has the support of the state AFL-CIO, which is making sure its approximately 28,000 members in the district know the federation's position and — perhaps more importantly — are aware there is an upcoming special election.

The two races are also targets for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a national group focused on state-level elections. It played a role in flipping 39 state seats from Republican control since the presidential election — including Pellegrino's win on Long Island.