As tensions rise in the Iraq capital, Sunnis reveal concerns about Isis, and some say they are ready to rise up against Shia militia

In a dilapidated cafe in north Baghdad under a TV set blasting patriotic songs in support of Iraq's embattled prime minister, a young man looked grave.

"Why did the revolutionaries stop?" he asked in a low voice, referring to the Sunni insurgents sweeping across northern Iraq. "Why did they reach Salaheddin [province] and stop? This will be very bad for us, the Sunnis in Baghdad, if they liberate the north and leave us here. We will be under the mercy of the militias. They have to push down, otherwise it will be the end of us."

The man, a Sunni fighter in the last round of civil war, stole a concerned glance at the men around him, some playing cards or backgammon.

"There are many men willing to start the fight again but the problem is there is no fear," he said. People were not sufficiently worried about the situation, he said, and did not realise there was no way back. "If we string two Shia on poles for everyone to see, the militias will retaliate and all the men in the area will be forced to carry arms. This is how we start bringing our men together."

A broad-shouldered Sunni commander next to him leaned forward and assured his friend, saying insurgents had set up sleeping cells and were waiting for zero hour to take the war into the heart of the Iraqi capital. "At zero hour, we start our fight by assassinating all the spies and agents. Our neighbourhood, like every Sunni neighbourhood, has many spies and informers. When we assassinate the leaders, the ranks will collapse."

Such are the deliberations and calculations of the some of the Sunni of Baghdad, marginalised for years under the Shia prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, now suddenly galvanised by the startling advances of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis) to within an hour's drive of the capital. For many ordinary Sunni Baghdadis, the advance of Isis is cause for alarm mixed with a vague hope that somehow Isis and Shia Muslims may severely damage each other, to the general benefit of moderate Sunnis. But for those who have fought for the cause in the past, it appears more like an opportunity.

The Isis advance has been aided by Sunni factions disillusioned with the Shia leadership in Baghdad. Sunni tribal leaders, Ba'ath party members, old army officers and factions of the former insurgency all came together months ago to plan how to take the fight to Maliki.

A leading role was given to the former army officers and Ba'ath party members. "Many factions are all under the command of army officers," said the commander. "Isis are not the only people fighting, but the Shia insist on seeing everyone as Isis and don't want to see the difference."

Patiently he laid out his plan in front of the other man, who appeared unconvinced. "We don't do any move without taking orders and permissions from the leadership of the military council," the commander said. "We start activating when the rebels enter the belt of Baghdad. The areas will fall one after the other. We are ready to start the fight now but we don't act yet, each step we calculate long before.

"Isis will clear the path for us and we will take over. Our men are toppling provinces now and we wait for them."

That may prove optimistic in the extreme. This marriage of convenience has happened before, after the US invasion in 2003, and delivered disastrous consequences when the Iraqi Sunnis allied themselves with insurgents operating under the name al-Qaida in Iraq. Before long, disputes over military leadership, ideology and ways of life splintered the Sunni front. Tribal leaders turned to the Americans and the insurgency was sent packing.

A veteran Sunni politician and a member of the parliament warned that Sunnis were once again making a pact with the devil. "This will lead to a chaotic and fragmented Sunni war," he said. "'What is your programme?' I ask the Sunnis. 'Maliki is corrupt and his army is sectarian, fine, but what is the programme? A Sunni region? And who will lead it? Isis?'

"Whatever happens the Sunnis of Iraq are the biggest losers," the MP added wearily. "In Syria the Sunnis can win if they clean their midst of foreign jihadis but in Iraq the Sunnis will lose whatever happens. They are a minority against the Shia and now they allowed the jihadis and Isis into their areas.

"The Sunnis will not be able to form any [structure] that can last and the moment they start forming it they will start with external fighting. They have lost the compass and they need Iraq but they can't see an Iraq that they don't rule. Yet at the same time no one can defeat them militarily, not Maliki and not Iran."

Countryside standoffs

In the fertile farmlands north of Baghdad, the emir of an Iraqi jihadi group which first fought the Americans, then flipped sides and fought al-Qaida and now is back fighting against the Iraqi army, gave further details of the uneasy arrangements with Isis. In much of the countryside, the emir said, local factions and tribes had wrested control of their areas or just moved in to fill the gap after government forces withdrew. Sometimes this had created a tense standoff with Isis.

"There are many different factions here, and all are cooperating now but we fear that they [Isis] will impose there control, and they start treating everyone as subservient to them," he said. "And we end up sandwiched between the rock and the hard place between the Shia government and Isis and go back to the same bad situation of years ago of internal fighting."

The emir said that he and other factions were trying to contain Isis by using the tribes. "The tribes told them: welcome as our sons, you work under the framework of tribes but you can't come here and tell us what to do."

Much the same thing happened in the mid-2000s, during the last insurgency.

"At the moment they are behaving in an exceptional way," the emir added. "Will they change or maintain this policy? I don't know, and Syria is different from Iraq. We have been through this – we know the meaning of internal fighting. We made mistakes in 2006-07. It's a dangerous fate that everyone fears."

Sheepishly he added: "They will not allow anyone to carry weapons and we have to accept that. The reality is that I don't have enough weapons now to fight them or even to resist. They are trying to reach the belt of Baghdad. This is where we want to reach. Things are heading to a sectarian war – of that I can assure you."