Senator Nick Xenophon and his party MPs won't support the plebiscite. Credit:Paul Jeffers "Unless the government can find other numbers for it, whether it's the opposition or any other parties, it seems to be the case ... that's it, but it doesn't mean the debate is over."

Senator Xenophon, new lower house MP Rebekha Sharkie and senators Skye Kakoschke-Moore and Stirling Griff said the planned February plebiscite would not bind MPs and cost at least $160 million. All members of the bloc would vote for same-sex marriage if a private members' bill came to the Parliament. "I would like to see this happen in this Parliament. I think it's a question of an ongoing community campaign," Senator Xenophon said.

On Friday, the plebiscite looked increasingly unlikely to go ahead as the Greens committed to voting against the legislation. Labor is expected to oppose the plebiscite but is yet to finalise its position. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten told Labor's shadow cabinet on Monday the plebiscite campaign would subject gay and lesbian Australians to public vilification. Ridiculing the government's policy, he said Australians faced fines for not voting in the plebiscite while Coalition MPs had pledged to abstain in a subsequent vote in Parliament. Mr Shorten recommitted Labor to pushing for a free vote in parliament.

A total of 38 votes are required to block legislation in the Senate, meaning the plebiscite can now only go ahead with support from Labor's 26 senators. Victorian senator Derryn Hinch is also expected to oppose the plebiscite bill, while Pauline Hanson's One Nation group of four senators would support it. Liberal Democrats senator David Leyonhjelm said he supported a plebiscite as the fastest way to resolve the question, arguing Saudi Arabia could "have marriage equality before we do." On Monday, Education Minister Simon Birmingham said the Coalition would not revert to a free vote if the enabling legislation was voted down.

A leading moderate within the Coalition, Senator Birmingham said a plebiscite was the "only way" for change to happen. "A message that I would give to the Labor Party, to the Greens, to Senator Xenophon, to anybody who says they support change to allow same-sex marriage is that a plebiscite is the only way they will see that change occur over the next three years," he told Sky News. Liberal MP Warren Entsch, a longtime advocate for reform, last week vowed not to cross the floor to support a Labor bill if the plebiscite is blocked. A Fairfax-Ipsos poll in July found seven in 10 voters backed a change to the Marriage Act to allow same-sex couples to wed, while 69 per supported a plebiscite over a parliamentary vote. LGBTI lobby group Just Equal welcomed the Xenophon announcement.

Loading "Labor has very effectively made the case against a plebiscite and now it needs to join the Greens and the NXT by vowing to vote a plebiscite down," spokesman Ivan Hinton-Teoh said.



"I expect that when a plebiscite is knocked on the head the government will look again at a free vote, and even if a free vote isn't allowed only a handful of Liberals need to cross the floor for marriage equality to pass." Australian Marriage Equality chair Alex Greenwich said he would meet with MPs from across the Parliament to try to secure same-sex marriage.



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