A victory for Republican nominee Donald Trump would send stock markets in the United States, the United Kingdom and Asia down by 10 to 15 percent, according to a new economic analysis.

In a paper released Friday by the nonpartisan Brookings Institution, economics professors Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz tracked overnight trading during the first presidential debate last month between Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton. They found that markets around the world surged as it became clear that Clinton had won the face-off.

“Markets believe this election will have huge ramifications for the global economy,” Wolfers wrote in a flurry of tweets breaking down his findings. “It’s not just about us; it’s about the world.”

See more of his analysis below:

Want to know what markets think of Clinton? Analyze how they responded when Trump's debate meltdown made her a more likely POTUS. pic.twitter.com/5biZ9F5B8K — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

How do we know this was due to the greater likelihood of a Clinton win? Well, what else would cause the Peso to skyrocket at the same time? pic.twitter.com/7tV4f27i4B — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

Are we over-analyzing a blip? No. Overnight markets rarely move this much. Something big happened during the debate. pic.twitter.com/SP1cmGQYdz — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

Compared to typical stock movements on a Monday evening, the debate-related move was large. Very large. pic.twitter.com/sqP2BkijQD — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

Indeed, an increasing likelihood of a Clinton win drove equity markets around the world to rise sharply. Bigly, even. pic.twitter.com/apc1JTit2Q — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

Here you see that many currencies rose strongly during the first debate. Most prominent? Mexico, Canada, Korea and Australia. pic.twitter.com/vklTmGSU2W — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

Why are the effects largest in Mexico, Canada, Korea & Australia? They're countries the US has free trade agreements with.They're at risk. — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

The inverse ― that the likelihood of Trump losing would give markets a boost ― also appears to be supported by evidence.

Let's examine another experiment: What happened after the Trump tapes were released? His odds of winning plummeted. pic.twitter.com/W8qtRxWO20 — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

Unfortunately for me, the Trump groping scandal occurred when markets were closed. But when they re-opened, they opened higher. pic.twitter.com/QnGnlZCQnd — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

Trump's groping was good news for markets, because it made a Trump Presidency less likely. — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

Let's put the market rally in historic perspective. Romney beat Obama by more in the first debate, but the market moved much less. pic.twitter.com/7h0xwdjIRg — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 21, 2016

Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.