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No, we are not going to reverse course and start deconstructing the insufferable media polling. We are committed to continuing to ignore the nonsense, the ‘shiny thing’ chatter.

However, every once in a while an example surfaces where we can explain that decision using a current case in point. Cue today’s PPP Florida poll:

(Via PPP) […] PPP’s newest Florida poll finds a very tight race for President in the state. In the full field Donald Trump gets 44% to 43% for Hillary Clinton, with Gary Johnson at 5%, and Jill Stein and Evan McMullin each at 1%. But in a head to head between Clinton and Trump, the nominal lead flips to Clinton at 47/46. That’s because voters who support one of the minor candidates or are undecided in the full field pick Clinton by 12 points over Trump if they had to choose just between the two major candidates. (link)

OMG… “tight race“. Oooooo,…. Ahhhhh,….. etc.

However, look at this first:

Wait, huh… wha?…. 16% of Registered Democrats are supporting Donald Trump? By itself that’s called burying the lede; but wait…, Independents are split even (not likely)… and yet somehow Trump is losing overall?

The only way that’s even remotely possible is if PPP necessarily over sampled the Democrats in Florida. It would take a considerable “over sampling” to pull off a Clinton poll lead. Let’s look:

Fortunately Florida has awesome “sunshine laws” on voter records and public records. And yep, there it is. The 2016 current registration reality is: Dems 37%, Reps 35%, and Unaffiliated 26%.

Look at how PPP necessarily manipulated the poll with a massive over sample of Democrat voters.

This is beyond silly. The gender splits are virtually identical (see below), so the only way PPP could pull off a close race in Florida is to skew the registration demo.

The results are ridiculously useless.

However, all of that said – I still like PPP pollsters because they are honest with their dishonesty. They are total fibbers with their ending results, but at least they allow everyone to see the biased constructs with disclosure of the methodology. They’re a funny bunch too… (Hey, they poll taco trucks).

[…] Public Policy Polling surveyed 744 likely voters between September 4th and 6th. The margin of error is +/3.6%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel. (link)

The reality is, it won’t be close folks. It won’t even be close.

Unskew the data and Mr. Trump has about a 55 / 45 lead of +10 points in Florida and it’s been that way head-to-head (essentially without movement) since early February of this year.

Florida is Trump Country and Floridians can’t wait to vote Trump !

Here’s the full PPP Poll so you can see for yourself. There are lots of contradictions within it, that also identify the flaws:

https://www.scribd.com/document/323290987/Ppp-Poll-Florida-Sept-7th-2016

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