Richard Charnin

Nov. 7, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

LINKS TO POSTS

Unlike corporate mainstream polls, the 2016 Election Model provides two forecasts: the Recorded Vote and the True Vote. Pollsters are usually quite accurate in their projections of the Recorded Vote. But they avoid the fraud factor. The fraudulent Recorded Vote is never the same as the True Vote. Clinton won the recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%.

The Election Model is based on the effects of changes in party affiliation (Dem, Rep, Ind) from 2012 to 2016. Clinton led the final 9-poll average 45.8-43.3% (298-240 EV).

Election Model forecast: State party-ID weights were adjusted to Gallup party-affiliation survey weights. Gallup is the only poll dedicated to tracking national party affiliation.

After adjusting the polls for the Gallup voter affiliation (40I-32D-28R), undecided voters were allocated (UVA) to derive the final adjusted TRUE poll share. Typically the challenger (in this case Trump) wins the majority (75%) of the undecided vote.

Forecast before UVA: Trump wins 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV.

UVA adjustment: 75% of undecided voters allocated to Trump.

True Vote after UVA: Trump wins 48.4-44.3% with 352-186 EV.

Forecast Methodology

The 2016 party-ID for each state is calculated by applying the same proportional change from the 2012 state party-ID as the change from the 2012 National party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National survey party-ID. The popular vote win probability and corresponding Electoral Vote are estimated for each pre-election poll. State votes are forecast by applying national pre-election poll shares to the state party-ID.

The electoral vote is calculated two ways: 1) the total EV (snapshot) in which the winner of the state wins all of the state electoral votes and 2) the statistically expected EV (state win probability times the state electoral vote). Sensitivity Analysis tables show the effect of incremental vote shares on the total vote.

Sensitivity Analysis: Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) effect on expected Electoral and Popular vote win probability

UVA Trump Clinton EV WinProb

50%….47.1….45.6…….310….. 75%

60%….47.6….45.1…….332….. 86%

75%….48.5….44.3…….352….. 96%

Note: The 2008 and 2012 election models exactly forecast the electoral vote (365 and 332 for Obama). But the True Votes were quite different. The 2008 model forecast that Obama would win 420 votes with a 58% share, exactly matching the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37%.

The 2012 model forecast that Obama would win 51.5% recorded and 55% True vote (380 EV}. The exit pollsters did not poll in 19 states. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

9 Polls Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein

Party-ID Gallup Pct Ind 40.0% 33.8% 43.6% 8.9% 3.8% Dem 32.0% 88.1% 6.9% 1.3% 1.7% Rep 28.0% 5.6% 87.8% 3.9% 0.3% Calc 94.7% 43.29% 44.67% 5.07% 2.14% 9Poll Avg 94.6% 43.31% 44.13% 5.07% 2.14% UVA 100.0% 44.33% 48.43% 5.07% 2.14% Recorded 98.77% 48.25% 46.17% 3.29% 1.07%

REPORTED Vote EVote Party ID Ind Dem Rep Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Ipsos 16% 45% 38% 43.0% 39.0% 317 221 IBD 37% 34% 29% 41.0% 43.0% 216 322 Rasmussen 32% 40% 28% 45.0% 43.0% 313 225 Quinnipiac 26% 40% 34% 47.0% 40.0% 378 160 Fox News 19% 43% 38% 48.0% 44.0% 317 221 CNN 43% 31% 26% 49.0% 44.0% 362 176 ABC 29% 37% 29% 47.0% 43.0% 317 221 Gravis 27% 40% 33% 47.0% 45.0% 294 244 LA Times 30% 38% 32% 42.6% 48.2% 180 358 Average 28.8% 38.7% 31.9% 45.5% 43.2% 299 239

Gallup Adj. Vote EVote Trump UVA 40I-32D-28R Clinton Trump Clinton Trump WinProb WinProb Ipsos 37.9% 36.4% 288 250 25.2% 96.2% IBD 40.2% 43.2% 216 322 88.3% 99.5% Rasmussen 41.1% 45.3% 187 351 94.4% 99.6% Quinnipiac 44.7% 40.8% 335 203 6.5% 35.8% Fox News 44.2% 43.9% 255 283 45.3% 66.1% CNN 48.6% 44.4% 335 203 7.0% 13.7% ABC 46.8% 47.0% 249 289 53.9% 58.0% Gravis 43.6% 45.5% 216 322 75.0% 97.5% LA Times 40.3% 49.8% 51 487 100.0% 100.0% Average 43.3% 44.1% 236 302 74.7% 91.4% Calc pre UVA 43.3% 44.7% 232 306 96.1% Calc post UVA 44.3% 48.4% 186 352 100%

Forecast Vote Recorded Electoral before UVA Clinton % Trump % Clinton Trump Total 42.9 44.4 232 306 AK 32.4 49.6 0 3 AL 37.4 51.0 0 9 AR 39.4 48.6 0 6 AZ 37.9 47.6 0 11 CA 45.7 41.0 55 0 CO 39.1 46.5 0 9 CT 44.2 40.5 7 0 DC 66.0 23.6 3 0 DE 47.6 39.7 3 0 FL 42.2 44.8 0 29 GA 40.5 47.7 0 16 HI 46.7 41.8 4 0 IA 39.4 46.1 0 6 ID 33.2 54.5 0 4 IL 45.8 42.4 20 0 IN 39.4 48.6 0 11 KS 33.9 52.3 0 6 KY 47.9 41.8 8 0 LA 38.6 45.7 0 8 MA 45.9 37.2 11 0 MD 51.4 36.7 10 0 ME 40.9 44.1 0 4 MI 44.1 44.0 16 0 MN 43.6 44.7 0 10 MO 40.3 48.0 0 10 MS 39.4 49.0 0 6 MT 36.1 52.3 0 3 NC 44.5 42.3 15 0 ND 38.3 50.0 0 3 NE 35.8 52.0 0 5 NH 38.1 46.6 0 4 NJ 42.8 41.2 14 0 NM 46.5 41.1 5 0 NV 42.7 44.4 0 6 NY 49.3 37.7 29 0 OH 41.6 46.7 0 18 OK 42.5 46.5 0 7 OR 42.9 43.3 0 7 PA 46.6 42.3 20 0 RI 48.7 35.4 4 0 SC 40.3 48.0 0 9 SD 37.5 50.4 0 3 TN 37.9 50.3 0 11 TX 40.1 47.5 0 38 UT 31.2 57.3 0 6 VA 41.2 47.0 0 13 VT 46.7 41.0 3 0 WA 42.8 46.6 0 12 WI 42.7 45.7 0 10 WV 48.2 39.5 5 0 WY 26.8 61.9 0 3

PopVote Exp. EV Gallup UVA WinProb Prob*EV Clinton Trump Trump Trump 91.4% 365 Actual Actual PreUVA PostUVA 232 306 306 358 100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 AK 100.0% 9.0 9 9 9 AL 100.0% 6.0 6 6 6 AR 100.0% 11.0 11 11 11 AZ 22.5% 12.4 55 CA 100.0% 9.0 9 9 9 CO 36.9% 2.6 7 CT 0.0% 0.0 3 DC 3.0% 0.1 3 DE 96.0% 27.8 29 29 29 FL 99.9% 16.0 16 16 16 GA 17.7% 0.7 4 HI 99.9% 6.0 6 6 6 IA 100.0% 4.0 4 4 4 ID 34.2% 6.8 20 IL 100.0% 11.0 11 11 11 IN 100.0% 6.0 6 6 6 KS 99.9% 8.0 8 8 8 KY 100.0% 8.0 8 8 8 LA 2.4% 0.3 11 MA 0.0% 0.0 10 MD 98.2% 3.9 2 2 4 4 ME 77.7% 12.4 16 16 MI 87.3% 8.7 10 10 10 MN 100.0% 10.0 10 10 10 MO 100.0% 6.0 6 6 6 MS 100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 MT 54.3% 8.2 15 15 NC 100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 ND 100.0% 5.0 1 4 4 4 NE 100.0% 4.0 4 4 4 NH 67.1% 9.4 14 14 NJ 15.2% 0.8 5 NM 92.5% 5.6 6 6 6 NV 0.1% 0.0 29 NY 99.4% 17.9 18 18 18 OH 98.2% 6.9 7 7 7 OK 51.9% 3.6 7 7 OR 23.1% 4.6 20 PA 0.0% 0.0 4 RI 100.0% 9.0 9 9 9 SC 100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 SD 100.0% 11.0 11 11 11 TN 100.0% 38.0 38 38 38 TX 100.0% 6.0 6 6 6 UT 99.7% 13.0 13 13 13 VA 12.1% 0.4 3 VT 97.8% 11.7 12 12 12 WA 96.3% 9.6 10 10 10 WI 1.4% 0.1 5 WV 100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 WY