AP

Sorry, there's none here either

LAST year, as the southern hemisphere's winter stretched Argentina's vulnerable energy infrastructure to near breaking-point, Guillermo Moreno, the internal commerce minister, sought to assure the public that the fuel shortages would be only temporary. “It will rain diesel,” he vowed. Now, as the country faces its worst energy shortage in nearly 20 years, even a sprinkle of diesel would be a relief.

The end of May brought an unseasonably early cold snap, leading homes to turn up their heaters. This, coupled with the failure of a power plant, caused the collapse of both the power grid and the fuel supply system. In Buenos Aires, two of the wealthiest districts were plunged into darkness. Across Argentina, electricity supplies to industrial users were severely curtailed, causing temporary workers to be laid off. Service stations ran out of the compressed natural gas that powers many Argentine cars, including 90% of the capital's taxis. At least this meant fewer jams, the official news agency noted brightly.

Analysts have long predicted that the consequences of the government's populist energy policies would begin to be felt this winter. During Argentina's 2001-02 economic crisis, the government forcibly converted all energy tariffs from dollars to pesos, representing a cut of nearly two-thirds in their real value. Since then, only a handful of modest increases have been permitted, resulting in energy prices that are some 40% lower than those in neighbouring countries.

This has caused private-sector energy investment to grind to a virtual halt, while the economy has grown by nearly 9% a year. As a result, Argentina's proven gas reserves have fallen from more than 20 years' worth of production in the mid-1990s to less than ten years' worth today, and it can no longer produce enough electricity to cover exceptional demand.

In spite of this, the country has managed to avoid big fuel disruptions over the past few years, thanks to a series of warm winters and ample rains that have boosted its hydroelectric output. To cope with demand peaks, the government has also deployed an arsenal of short-term fixes—but at high cost. Suspending gas exports to Chile has strained trans-Andean relations; importing inefficient liquid fuels from Venezuela and electricity from Uruguay and Brazil is hugely expensive; and forced rationing has hurt industrial production and the overall investment climate. No significant increase in capacity is expected before the end of winter 2008.

The energy chaos could hardly have come at a worse time for the president, Néstor Kirchner, who is up for re-election this October (though his wife, a senator, is expected to run in his stead). He had already lost credibility with voters by authorising a controversial change in the government's method of measuring consumer prices, resulting in an official inflation rate well below private estimates of up to 15%. Now his government's insistence that its energy policies are working seems equally laughable. Moreover, the gas shortages have refocused public attention on a political bribery scandal involving the expansion of a gas pipeline in 2005, which has already led to the departure of three senior government officials.

Energy executives, consultants and economists broadly agree on the path Argentina needs to take. The price controls, which not only discourage investment but also push up demand, need to be replaced by a transparent system of controlled tariffs for low-income households and market prices for everyone else. The government also needs to convince investors that their rights and contracts will be respected before they plonk down the billions of dollars necessary to bring the country's energy system up to snuff. But this would mean an end to the cheap gas and electricity that Argentina's middle class has come to consider an inalienable right—and in an election year, no less.

As temperatures returned to their mild late-autumn norms this week, the government was able to breathe a sigh of relief. But the respite may be short-lived. Winter in the southern hemisphere officially begins on June 21st.