Groundhog Day is Saturday. How accurate has Punxsutawney Phil been in the past?

Doyle Rice | USA TODAY

It's that time of year again when meteorologists "graciously" step aside to let a furry rodent make its weather forecast.

Punxsutawney Phil, the world's most famous groundhog, will be coaxed from his burrow in western Pennsylvania early Saturday by a bunch of guys in black hats and suits. Then, an anxious nation will wait to find out whether we'll have an early spring or six more miserable weeks of cold and snow.

But let's not get carried away with his prediction. Turns out that flipping a coin might be as accurate as Phil. Since 1988, the groundhog has been "right" 14 times and "wrong" 17 times.

In other words, in only 14 of the last 31 years did the national average temperature for the remainder of February match what would be expected based on what the groundhog predicted.

The experts agree: "There is no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of the analysis," according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

This is the 133rd year that Phil has made his prediction.

According to legend, if it's sunny and Phil sees his shadow, the scared groundhog returns to his burrow and the U.S. will endure six more weeks of winter. But if it's cloudy when the groundhog emerges on Feb. 2, the critter won't see his shadow and will leave his burrow, meaning winter will soon end and an early start to spring is coming.

The National Weather Service said the forecast for Saturday morning in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, calls for cloudy skies and a temperature of 23 degrees. But Phil is a fickle fuzzball, so who knows what he'll do?

More: Don't look for Punxsutawney Phil to deliver us from winter weather on Groundhog Day

Phil was "wrong" last year: The fuzzy rodent saw his shadow, so there should have been six more weeks of winter. But both February and March ended up warmer than average across the nation, NOAA said.

For members of Punxsutawney Phil's "Inner Circle," his less than stellar record could be classified as fake news. They claim his predictions are accurate 100 percent of the time.

More: Groundhog Day: 5 bizarre things you don't know about this quirky tradition

Overall, Phil tends to predict that winter will continue: Since 1887, the groundhog has seen his shadow 104 times, to forecast a longer winter, and not seen it 18 times, to predict an early spring. (There is no record of the prediction for 10 times in the late 19th century.)

While Groundhog Day is just some midwinter fun, climate records say that winter probably isn't over, according to NOAA. Climatologically speaking, the three coldest months of the year are December, January and February, so winter typically still has a ways to go when the groundhog comes out on Feb. 2.

The most recent prediction for February from the Climate Prediction Center is for cooler-than-average temperatures in the eastern U.S., and warmer-than-average temperatures in the West and in Alaska.

Although Phil is the most famous hog, other furry forecasters include West Virginia's French Creek Freddie, Georgia's Gen. Beauregard Lee, Ohio's Buckeye Chuck, North Carolina's Sir Walter Wally, Louisiana's Cajun Groundhog, Alabama's Smith Lake Jake, Wisconsin's Jimmy and New York's Staten Island Chuck (full name: Charles G. Hogg).

Groundhog Day's origins lie in an ancient European celebration of Candlemas, which is a point midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox – the exact midpoint of astronomical winter.

Superstition has it that fair weather predicted a stormy and cold second half to winter, as noted in this Old English saying:

"If Candlemas be fair and bright,

Winter has another flight.

If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,

Winter will not come again."

The prognostication celebration starts at 3 a.m. EST Saturday at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney. Phil makes his prediction around 7:25 a.m.

Contributing: Matt Eyer, The York (Pa.) Daily Record