Yesterday, David Cameron announced a significant £12 billion increase in defence spending over the next decade to over £178 billion.

I have been talking about the near future of British and international defence for a while now, and it seems that yesterdays defence budget has confirmed my predictions.

Setting out the new Strategic Defence ans Security Review (SDSR), the Prime Minister announced new plans for two ‘Strike Brigades’, high- altitude drones, more F-35 jets, maritime patrol aircraft and type-26 warships.

The defence budget increases should not be a surprise. The situation in Ukraine and the global political climate in relation to Russia has seen the possibility of a conventional war arise again. David Cameron half-heartedly addressed this in the SDSR under the section regarding the resurgence of state-based threats. He states that despite committing to “build a partnership with Russia” they have “become more aggressive, authoritarian and nationalist, increasingly defining itself in opposition to the west.” Cameron then goes on to address the fact that Russia is currently in the process of modernising its military and that their rhetoric has included the threat of nuclear force far more regularly. Cameron also praises the solidarity of NATO following the 2014 Wales summit, although this may be tested following the shooting of a Russian Su-24 by an Turkish F-16 today.

It seems that the cold war is no longer dormant.

Although a real conventional war with Russia is very unlikely, the slight possibility means that military’s will be stepping up efforts to convince governments that they require more money in order to prepare for this potential threat. In regards to the British; competition between the Navy, RAF and the British Army will also increase as they fight for a larger share of the budget. It seems pretty clear that aircraft carriers will become important again because they would be required for a war with Russia in a strategic and operational sense. They would act as a springboard for countries like the UK to project its force over such a large area. We know that aircraft carriers have now become a serious option again as Cameron announced that the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II order would increase to 138, with 24 of these being available by 2023. These would also be bulked up by the new order of at least 13 new frigates and nine Boeing maritime patrol aircraft.

So if there isn’t going to be a war with Russia, what will happen?

As it is difficult to imagine a direct confrontation with Russia, instead what I expect we shall see is even more involvement in conflicts in the middle east in the form of proxy wars. One would imagine that they will take the same shape as the 1991 Gulf War, as NATO forces refocus on developing the doctrine of “Full Spectrum Dominance”, which followed the well-tested AirLand Battle Theory. Focus will especially be on the cyber aspects of this and attempt to remove the fog of war. There are faint signs of increased focus on information control in the SDSR, as secret security services are to receive more personnel, however I’m sure this will become more apparent over the next few years.