Deirdre Shesgreen and Scott Wartman

USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — At first blush, Ohio’s 1st Congressional District might look like fertile ground for Democrats to pick up one of the 24 seats they need to win control of the House in the 2018 election.

It’s the closest thing Ohio has to a swing district, cutting through Cincinnati’s Democratic heart before meandering into more conservative suburban terrain. President Trump won here by 6.6 percentage points — his narrowest margin in the state’s Republican-held seats.

So perhaps it’s no wonder Democrats put the seat on their target list right out of the gate last January, as party strategists sketched out a possible path to the majority.

Nearly a year later, though, there is little sign of an anti-Trump wave cresting in this Midwestern hub. The election is still nearly a year away, and the seat now held by Republican Rep. Steve Chabot isn’t on any toss-up lists.

There is a wild-card candidate in the contest — a Cincinnati rabbi named Robert Barr who appears to be raising money at a quick clip. But so far, this sleepy contest may serve to illustrate how hard it will be for Democrats to claw their way back into power in Washington, despite a highly favorable political climate.

“The House map nationally is in Republicans favor,” said Kyle Kondik, a political analyst with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. Kondik says right now, the battle for control of House is shaping up as “a coin flip,” and UVA’s race tip sheet lists Chabot's district as “likely” to stay Republican.

Working in the Democrats’ favor nationally: the party that controls the White House historically loses seats in Congress during mid-term elections. And President Trump’s approval ratings are particularly dismal — fewer than 40 percent of Americans say he’s doing a good job — so he will be a drag on GOP congressional candidates.

But Republicans start out with several structural advantages: gerrymandered districts that strongly favor in the GOP in states like Ohio, plus the power of incumbency and the fundraising spigot that opens.

There are only about 20 true “toss-up” seats that could swing either way, according to UVA’s ratings and others. About 16 of those are held by the GOP, and four by Democrats.

To overcome the GOP’s edge, Democrats are trying to put as many GOP seats in play as possible. Which brings us to Ohio’s 1st district.

“I think there is a potential for Democratic candidates to surprise a lot of people,” said Tim Burke, Hamilton County Democratic Party chairman. “Will it be easy? No."

Voting for GOP incumbent a tradition

Chabot, the incumbent, is a soft-spoken, hard-core conservative first elected in 1994. He lost the seat to a Democrat in 2008, wrestled it back in 2010, and now seems safely ensconced thanks to a GOP-redistricting effort that shifted the demographics in his favor. In 2016, he trounced his Democratic foe in the last election by 19 percentage points.

Voting for Steve Chabot has become a tradition for many on Cincinnati’s west side. And in a neighborhood where many people stay on the street they grew up on, tradition takes on even more importance.

Mark Kluesener grew up in the same house in East Price Hill where his father grew up. When he married his wife, Marcia, more than 30 years ago, they moved into a house in the nearby neighborhood of Westwood. They’ve since moved a few miles west to Green Township in an area locals call Western Hills.

“There’s a Catholic Church on every other corner,” Mark Kluesener said.

The Klueseners don’t describe themselves as very political, but Chabot has their vote. They attend the same church as Chabot, Our Lady of Lourdes.

“It’s just a very conservative area,” he said.

You can learn a lot about the people who always vote for Chabot by just walking into Price Hill Chili. On the walls in the entrance foyer are the pictures of Republican presidential candidates and vice presidents who have stopped in. There’s Dick Cheney with a to-go order of Cincinnati-style chili. There are pictures Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Mike Pence greeting patrons at the restaurant.

On the television is Fox News and ESPN. This Friday, like many Fridays for the past 20 years, four friends sat at a corner table.

They weren’t shy when changing the subject to politics.

“This is a Republican area, you know that, right?” said Bill Blaes, of Bridgetown. “You watch Fox News? Then you ought to know what the hell is going on.”

And like many regulars, they know Chabot. He’s one of them.

“He still lives out in Westwood,” said Larry Loebker, of West Price Hill. “He still drives seven- and eight- year-old cars. He doesn’t drive around in a new Mercedes, stuff like that.”

Will this election be different?

Democrats say this election could be different. Their base is energized, and some newly engaged voters have targeted Chabot and other Republicans over the GOP’s efforts to repeal Obamacare, among other issues. Chabot has tread carefully when it comes to Trump — criticizing the president harshly in some instances and supporting him wholeheartedly in others.

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And while there haven’t been public polls in the Ohio race, recent national polls show that voters say they would support a Democratic candidate for Congress over a Republican by about 13 percentage points, according to an average of surveys by RealClearPolitics.com. Those “generic ballot” polls are seen as a key indicator of the electoral mood.

That backdrop could make the Ohio race “a jump ball,” said Jason Bresler, political director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Chabot is a committee chairman, incredibly ingrained with (House Speaker) Paul Ryan. You don’t get much more establishment.”

Republicans scoff at the idea that Chabot is vulnerable. Chris Martin, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the Democrats’ target list is simply not realistic.

“There’s no question this is going to be a challenging cycle,” Martin said. But Chabot has more than $1 million in the bank and a strong record to take to the voters.

“To knock off an incumbent, it’s going to take more than $8,000,” Martin said, referring to the fundraising haul reported by one of Chabot’s Democratic challengers, Laura Ann Weaver, a transgender dentist who is new to politics. She is the only Democratic candidate to report raising any money so far, but her first filing shows less than $10,000 raised and $8,200 in the bank at the end of September.

Several high-profile Cincinnati Democrats rebuffed pleas from party leaders to challenge Chabot. Among those approached to run was Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune, who flew to Washington, D.C., last year to hear a pitch from the Democratic Caucus Campaign Committee. He weighed the idea briefly before saying no.

“It’s a daunting challenge for anyone that wants to spend the time and effort and money to run against him,” Portune said of Chabot.

Democrats are not dissuaded by the lack of a star recruit. They say a political newcomer with outsider credentials could be effective in the current political climate.

Barr, the Cincinnati rabbi, has embraced a “change-agent” message and emphasized his work counseling people in crisis. And he says he’s raised more than $150,000 since announcing his campaign in mid-October.

“I'm running for Congress with the same commitment to problem solving, service, and bringing people together that drove me to become a rabbi 37 years ago,” Barr said in a statement. “Congressman Chabot has served for a long time. It's time for a change.”

Kondik said Chabot’s seat is a “marginal target” at best. But, he added, “I don’t think that Democrats need to win a single extra seat in Ohio to win a majority” in the House.

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