A lot of analysts distrust Chinese economic data.

But there’s a hack for that: Study the trends at companies with significant exposure to the world’s second-largest economy. They offer detailed analysis of China in their conference calls.

I recently drilled down on the commentary of over a dozen companies that do a lot of business in China, and here are the key takeaways.

China is OK, even if there are areas of weakness like heavy construction and mining.

Chinese consumers are in remarkably good shape.

U.S. consumers are in good shape, too. This means you should position your portfolio for a Santa Claus rally in U.S. stocks. It’s going to build as fears about China ease, and U.S. consumer spending helps the U.S. economy — and China’s as well.

Let’s start with the good news on China.

Chinese consumers are spending like crazy

It’s tough to get nervous about China when you see how much Chinese consumers fork out for handbags, sneakers and java. This is good news, because it confirms that China is successfully making the transition to a consumer economy from one based on manufacturing. A big part of the bear case on China is that it will flub this transformation. Not so, judging by the results of four consumer companies that do a lot of business there. Let’s look at some examples.

Overpriced Starbucks coffee? Chinese consumers don’t even bat an eye.

The company’s China Asia-Pacific division posted 18% third-quarter revenue growth, and that includes the drag from a strong dollar. Now, Starbucks Corp. SBUX, -1.10% is expanding rapidly in China. It opened 1.5 stores a day in the quarter. So you have to adjust for this. But even accounting for it, China Asia-Pacific sales are great. On a same-store basis (outlets open more than a year), sales advanced 6%. China posted the strongest comparable-store growth in the Asia-Pacific region.

“Our business in China remains very, very strong,” said John Winchester Culver, the president of Starbucks’ China & Asia Pacific division, on the company’s Oct. 30 conference call. “We’ve seen no systemic slowdown in our business in China.”

Starbucks’ rapid expansion in China also confirms the health of its economy. After all, Starbucks is not dumb. It would not be expanding so aggressively if it thought the Chinese economy was about to fall off a cliff, as the gloom-and-doom crowd wants you to believe. Expansion in China will account for half of Starbucks’ 2016 growth — it plans to open 900 stores, on top of the 1,800 that are already there in 95 cities. It wants to have 3,500 stores in China by 2019. “We’re just very optimistic about the opportunity,” said Culver.

When buying pricey coffee, Chinese consumers reach into expensive handbags for the cash. How do we know? Coach Inc. US:COH posted great sales in China for the third quarter. Tellingly, most of the growth was in mainland China, the part of China that the bears are most worried about. Double-digit growth there offset weak sales in Hong Kong and Macau. The trends are so good in China, Coach reaffirmed its guidance for the year.

An interesting twist here is that China isn’t the only place Coach gets a boost from Chinese consumers. Chinese tourists account for growing demand in Europe and Japan — so much so that Coach is hiring more sales staff who speak Mandarin in those areas.

Next, Nike Inc. NKE, +8.12% saw third-quarter sales in China jump an “amazing” 30%, to use the company’s own words. “While we’re very mindful of the macroeconomic volatility in China, our brand has never been stronger and our marketplace has never been more healthy,” Nike CFO Andy Campion said on the company’s conference call.

Yes, Nike posted strong growth just about everywhere, because it is so good at what it does. But this alone does not explain the amazing growth in China. The 30% gains were far above Nike’s 19% growth in emerging markets overall.

Finally, you have to look at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. BABA, -0.92% if you’re trying to gauge China’s consumer strength. Here, it’s the same story. The amount of goods sold at the website was up 28% in the third quarter, in yuan terms, and Alibaba revenue was up 32%. “User engagement is very healthy with more buyers purchasing across all categories,” said CEO Daniel Zhang in the company’s Oct. 27 conference call. Of course, part of this growth comes from Chinese consumers buying more online. But even accounting for that, 28% growth at a huge Chinese retailer doesn’t suggest a troubled consumer.

It’s a mixed picture for industry

It’s better than the plunge off the edge of a cliff that the China bears are forecasting. “If the story you are getting is that it’s a mixed picture, that is positive compared to ‘China is going into a hard landing,’” says Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research.

How mixed? Honeywell International Inc. HON, -2.66% , which makes components and control systems used in everything from planes and vehicles to factories, offers a good example, says Andrew Meister, an industrial sector analyst at Thrivent Financial.

Honeywell was hurt by lower commercial vehicle production in China. That doesn’t sound good. But sales of automation and control systems used in factories and other buildings advanced 10%. It also saw strength in aerospace. “We are one of the guys that are doing pretty well overall,” said Honeywell CEO Dave Cote, referring to China.

United Technologies Corp. US:UTX, though, sounds downright bearish on China. Sales of climate, controls and security systems fell 8% in the third quarter. Heating, ventilating and air-conditioning sales were weak. Otis elevator and escalator sales dropped 19%, but that was partly because the company is losing lots of market share to competitors. The company also projected 10%-15% declines in commercial aerospace sales next year. “We continue to see the China market weakening,” said CEO Gregory Hayes. “Growth in fixed investments has slowed considerably.”

In contrast, General Electric Co. GE, -2.16% was upbeat. Commenting on industrial sector demand, CEO Jeff Immelt said: “Business for us in China is still pretty good.” GE also saw sales growth in services, and improvement in health-care-equipment sales. “We actually feel better that China is stabilizing a little bit for health care,” he said.

The heavy-construction-equipment market is bleak

Not much positive spin here. Cummins Inc. CMI, -0.44% , which sells engines, blamed a lousy third quarter, in part, on a 24% decline in China’s truck market. Caterpillar Inc. CAT, -2.08% described the market for construction equipment in China as “quite depressed.”

This is no surprise, though, given the government’s pullback in infrastructure spending, and the steps China has taken to cool the real-estate boom. “Demand for construction equipment remains very depressed in China due to the slowdown in real estate development and infrastructure spending,” said Cummins CEO Tom Linebarger. Mining sector weakness didn’t help, either.

Signs of hope from shippers

Shippers offer another good read on economies. Here, the picture is mixed, as well, but there’s a ray of hope for China, even if it is a bank shot.

The bad news is that UPS CEO David Abney cited China’s growth slowdown as a reason to trim optimism on global GDP growth.

But both United Parcel Service Inc. UPS, -0.01% and FedEx Corp. FDX, -0.72% sound downright bullish on the U.S. consumer. UPS expects U.S. holiday shipping to advance 10%. FedEx expects holiday shipments to increase 12.4%. Those gains come, in part, because consumers are shopping more online. But overall holiday sales will be solid, too.

The National Retail Federation expects holiday retail sales to increase 3.7%. A recent Gallup survey found consumers are more enthusiastic about opening their wallets this holiday season than they have been since 2007, points out Robert Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management. “Holiday spending should be strong,” he says.

What does that have to do with China? Well, just as the bears are worried that China might bring our economy down, the reverse can also happen. So much of the stuff we buy comes from China, strong holiday sales are bound to flow through to boost China’s economy.

At the time of publication, Michael Brush had no positions in any stocks mentioned in this column. Brush has suggested GE in his stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks. Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist group, and he attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program.