The actual vote tallies for the pre-Election Day ballots won’t be known until they are tallied on Election Day. | AP Photo/Susan Walsh Sunshine State showdown: Obama heads to Florida in between Trump visits

MIAMI — Former President Barack Obama plans to rally for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum and Sen. Bill Nelson on Friday in Florida, an appearance that will be bookended by President Donald Trump rallying for the Democrats’ rivals for governor and Senate in the Sunshine State on Wednesday and Saturday.

The get-out-the-vote rallies from the two most popular figures in their respective parties underscore the national importance of the two top-of-the-ticket races in the country’s biggest swing state. And they show just how much Democrats and Republicans want to turn out their bases in the two tight races.


Obama is heading to the heart of Democratic country: Miami. Trump is going to Republican-rich Fort Myers on Wednesday to campaign with Senate hopeful Gov. Rick Scott, who is challenging Nelson, and GOP gubernatorial nominee Ron DeSantis, and will return to Pensacola in the Panhandle on Saturday, the day after Obama’s visit to South Florida.

As of Monday morning, the Democrats appear to need the help more.

Despite Democrats’ talk of a “blue wave” swamping Florida, Republicans hold a 42-40 percent edge over Democrats in pre-Election Day ballots cast. Democratic ballots have been slowly eating into the GOP’s margin and may even up the score by week’s end if current voting rates hold.

As of Monday morning, more than 2.7 million Floridians had cast in-person early votes and absentee ballots. That’s about 20 percent of the Florida electorate, and it’s more than double the number of pre-Election Day ballots cast eight days before the last midterm in 2014.

Also, older white voters — who tend to vote Republican — are voting at far higher rates than younger and nonwhite voters, who tend to vote Democrat.

“Is this a blue wave? No. I’m not seeing it yet,” said Daniel A. Smith, a University of Florida political science professor and author of the ElectionSmith blog, which tracks voter turnout. “But it still remains early. There’s a full week and another weekend of in-person early voting and absentee ballot voting.”

The actual vote tallies for the pre-Election Day ballots won’t be known until they are tallied on Election Day. Political campaigns and insiders track the in-person early votes and absentee ballot returns by party to gauge partisan intensity heading into an election. Fewer than 18 percent of the ballots cast so far were cast by no-party-affiliation and third-party voters.

Polls show that Gillum and Nelson are beating their rivals among independent voters, but the races are essentially tied. Most recent surveys indicate the Democrats are leading the Republicans, albeit inside the respective margins of error.