In times of international football, the climate changes in the press. Stories can have ample opportunity to stew and ultimately swell into an oversized package that surfaces between qualifiers and friendlies. In the weeks betwixt Premier League debacles there is a blur of discussion before another 10 fixtures whisk another platter of incident to the public. Raheem Sterling has watched his contract negotiations be amplified by the lull from the annual March interlude.

Anyone living in or close to the real world knows that £30,000 is a figure that denotes a good living when applied to a yearly salary, let alone a weekly wage. However what Sterling provides for Liverpool Football Club is worthy of payment of upwards of £100,000 pounds a week, or so his agents say. Sterling has announced that negotiations are to be put on hold until the summer. It’s a discussion that comes up across many sports, whether sportsmen should fully exploit their right to obtain the best salary for themselves. In Sterling’s case, it may come down to how much he really believes in himself and if he would get into the star-studded sides residing over the continent.

On Wednesday night, Sterling had an unexpected interview with BBC Radio 5Live. Already the words ‘sanctioned’ and ‘rogue’ were being used, which suggests Sterling had disclosed government secrets. Actually, he asked that the public’s view of him isn’t unfairly distorted, coming out with the following:

“It’s not about the money at all,” “It’s never been about money. I talk about winning trophies throughout my career. That’s all I talk about.” “I don’t talk about how many cars I’m going to drive, how many houses I’ve got. I just purely want to be the best I can be.”

All fair statements but nothing that a departing player hasn’t said before. Fenway Sports Group, as others have noted, have a reputation of using the press to taint the image of a player before they leave, which is what this looks like. There are warning signs from American journalists that are hinting at the storm of negativity about to hit Sterling. But Sterling’s agents are exploiting a pressure point which is over 2 years from now. It’s this, not to mention the £100,000 a week deal he’s rumoured to have turned down, that a lot of this criticism stems from. This whole ‘contract fracas fairground ride’ is one that everyone who has been involved with or follows football has been on.

What really stoked my personal interest though was this tweet:

To reiterate, if Sterling simply plays out LFC contract + goes abroad on a free, he could command £250k pw. Smart to turn down £100k. — Jake Cohen (@JakeFCohen) April 1, 2015

Sterling believing he’s worth more than £100k and reportedly turning down an offer fairly? Sure. But where is the multitude of clubs that will offer him £250k a week? Who is able to give Raheem Sterling his next contract and who will he realistically consider going to? The threat of Liverpool’s competition for Raheem Sterling’s signature doesn’t seem quite as ominous. Let’s actually examine the challengers.

Now £250k is a boatload of money even for a footballer’s pay packet. Using Forbes’ list, we can see the top 20 clubs in terms of value, in a hastily, horribly tabled format. This gives us an appropriate summary of the clubs that are mostly in the same postcode (Hamburg, um?) as the ballpark Sterling is looking to play in.

Separating the wheat from the Hamburg

Now just applying a dollop of common sense, we can dismiss over half of that list that aren’t a bigger club than Liverpool in the sense that no way would Sterling go there and/or wouldn’t have sufficient funds. Liverpool will stay because obviously they’re still contenders to give Sterling his next contract.

Serie A doesn’t have the power anymore to wrest Premier League stars away, Carlos Tevez to Juventus notwithstanding. Sterling wouldn’t see Spurs as a step-up, nor the Borussia Dortmund after their swoon. Sorry, Atlético but your league title and Champions League success last season doesn’t make you this big of a player in the market and you know it. Besides, Atlético and these others would never even dream about going for Sterling, unless Daniel Levy ingested a scary amount of liquid courage.

Kop pride disqualifies local and league rivals

So we’re closer to a realistic group now. But even in the case of Sterling, a supremely talented forward who’s as close to when he turned professional as when he’ll turn 25, Liverpool will be able to resist who they now see as direct rivals in Arsenal. In what was a wonderful piece of tabloid fabrication, Sterling became the ‘reported’ target of the summer funds Arsenal are apparently obliged to spend on a shiny attacker. They aren’t a major player here. Manchester United’s exclusion goes without saying, unless you really believe Sterling will become the first player to transfer between the two clubs for 51 years.

Allianz, Bernabéu, Camp Nou are out of reach

Now we get to the European giants, frequent Champions League final dwellers that lurk in the murky gossip columns of transfer rumours. Bayern Munich recently let Toni Kroos leave because of a refusal to fulfill his wage wishes (also because he wasn’t crucial to their team) which would have broken their wage structure. Sterling is not the caliber of player that would force Bayern to throw the structure out the window with a £250k offer. Barcelona? They have a transfer ban that won’t be lifted again until after Sterling drama will have plateaued. Leaving Real Madrid on the mega-club island. Even if Gareth Bale leaves (he won’t) Sterling doesn’t lend himself as the immediate replacement. Forecasting the transfer market in is becoming harder each year and especially so with Real, but an assumption that Florentino Pérez doesn’t see Sterling as a starting XI worthy Galactico is acceptable. On top form Sterling is on the fringes of these teams and he reached that consistently this season.

FFP has come calling for the mega-rich

Manchester City have sniffed around Sterling before, his burst onto the first-team scene coincided with Roberto Mancini’s demands of fresh life in his squad. It never amounted to much, but many suggest they’ll have another look given the situation arising roughly 35 miles west of them. This is partly because Sterling qualifies as a homegrown player and also Manchester City’s squad is very old compared to Chelsea’s. It’s debatable whether City would offload key members of their squad — something they’ve already struggled with in the past — to circumvent FFP and sign Sterling. As well as this, City have engaged in a process of restructuring contracts for all their star players. There is no way Sterling could sign on a mega-contract there without disrupting City’s dressing room and accounts severely. Chelsea aren’t as pressurised by the regulations and they already have a method of farming players for profit or use which saves them from the frequent splashes Manchester City have made. Talking tactically for a second, both of these teams could fit Sterling in quite easily. Manchester City need pace anywhere in their team that doesn’t go by the name of Jesus Navas and Chelsea might decide having 4 players cover 3 demanding attacking positions for a whole season won’t work much longer. Completing the trio of cash-laden clubs are PSG. Gabriel Marcotti wrote this brief excerpt in an article for ESPNFC regarding PSG’s state with UEFA.

They are effectively on probation. If they were to violate the rules again, I don’t think UEFA would take it very well.

Doesn’t sound like a club who can delve into the coffers for a prodigious English 20 year old with 2 years left on his contract. If PSG really want a new star they might find a suitable alternative in Serie A, again.

Which leaves…

Oh.

Stick or Twist?

Liverpool won’t be bullied into anything by Sterling and his agents, and the interview the player gave to 5Live seemed genuine, if a little blatant. Sterling already lost possible money by Liverpool not tendering a contract offer last year and holding out for an offer that might never come will only exacerbate this issue for him. Liverpool need to gauge multiple factors, but they secretly have the leverage here which explains why they only began talks this season. The weekend’s game against Arsenal is so beautifully poised that it will instantly pay off BT Sport’s fees for the Premier League TV rights. He’s lit up Arsenal before and this contract situation won’t have pleased him, which might not bode well for Arsenal or Liverpool. Does hell hath no fury like a Sterling scorned?