Baseball is almost back, boys

And that means another year of Fantasy Baseball is right around the corner. I’ve decided to take it upon myself to rank who I think will be the Top 10 fantasy performers at each position by the end of the year. Obviously it’s hard to be 100% correct when making predictions like this, but I’ll at least try to make my case for each player and their positioning. Make sure to post your thoughts in the comment section! And if we’re playing in the same league together next season and you’re using this to get a 1-up on me… then shame on you.

The List

1 – Miguel Cabrera

“Now wait a second, Jeff,” I hear you saying. “Miguel Cabrera is a third baseman!” While that’s technically true, the Tigers are going to try to find anyone they can to play the hot corner next season other than Miguel Cabrera. It’s not like he has ever impressed anyone with his defensive ability, and hopefully the less demanding position will allow him to get even more at-bats. Over the past 3 years, Cabrera has averaged a .341 Batting Average, a .428 OBP, 198 Hits, 129 RBI’s, 39 HR’s, and a .609 SLG (giving him an average OPS of 1.036). So what am I trying to say with all these stats? Nothing you shouldn’t already know. Unless Mike Trout is available (and even then who could fault you for choosing Miggy over him) you are going to select Miguel Cabrera.

2 – Paul Goldschmidt

Maybe it’s just because he’s a fellow Texan, but I’ve been big on Pauly Goldschmidt for some time now. I picked him up in the 8th round of my keeper league and won’t be looking back. He hasn’t been in the majors long, with only 2 full seasons under his belt, but if you’ve seen him play it’s evident that he is the future of First base in Major League Baseball. Last year he got more plate appearances than ever and he improved on basically every single hitting statistic. He walked more, he struck out less often, he hit for power, he got on base more. Hell, he’s even stolen 33 bases the past two years. I can easily see him batting .320/.420/.600 if he continues his trend of improving at the plate. I’m drafting Goldschmidt over just about everyone not named Trout or Cabrera in all formats.

3 – Prince Fielder

Numbers 3-5 were the most difficult for me to rate. They’re all extremely talented ball players who any fantasy owner should feel confident stashing at First Base. Now it’s no secret that Prince had a “bad year” least season, and I think he’s the most interesting option heading into 2014. His numbers were down basically all across the board, highlighted by big drops in OPB, BB/9, and SLG. But even with all these so-called “red flags,” I still see Prince as the 3rd best option at 1B. 2013 may have been one of the worst years statistically of Fielders career, but he still put up some respectable fantasy points. Fielder hit the 8th most RBI’s in all of Major League Baseball and hit the 7th most HR’s for First Basemen. He played all 162 games and had the most AB’s of all qualified First Basemen, while striking out less than hitters like Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto. The discipline is there, Prince just needs to get the power back. And what better place to hit for power than the Ranger’s Ballpark in Arlington? (Yes, I know it has a new name now) Baseball fans know that Comerica Park isn’t the greatest park for power hitters, which I think is reflected in Fielder’s stats. Having the opportunity to pull line-drives over that shallow right field wall 82 games a year should help drastically boost Fielder’s power stats. Assuming he plays another 162 games, gets as many AB’s as he possibly can, and keeps his BAbip around his career average of .309, the power numbers should produce themselves. The stars are aligning for Fielder to have a monster year. Don’t be the guy who regrets passing over Fielder for someone like Tulowitzki, Kipnis, or Hanely Ramirez.

4 – Joey Votto

It’s true, Joey Votto didn’t put up great fantasy numbers last season. He wasn’t hitting for power, the RBI’s weren’t flowing in at their normal rate, and it just didn’t seem like the same Joey Votto. I’m here to tell you not to worry. It’s true the power wasn’t there, but Votto actually had the best full season of his career when it came to getting on base. Votto walked a MLB leading 135 times last year and ended the season with a .435 OBP. Now I know walks don’t normally equate to fantasy points, but I think it’s a sign that his others numbers last year were more of a fluke than a new trend. Votto’s power numbers are his only concern. Last year he slugged .491, a far cry away from his MLB average of .553. Votto’s perceived value will fluctuate a lot from person to person depending on whether you think he’ll be closer to or further away from that .553 mark. Personally, I think Votto hits more HR’s and deep doubles this year, making him my 4th favorite 1B. In leagues that use the OBP stat over Batting Average, he’s an even safer pick as the 4th First Baseman off the board.

5 – Chris Davis

For as uncomfortable and floundering as Chris Davis looked during his time in Texas, he looked just as imposing last season. We all knew he had the raw tools, it was just a matter of getting his head right and putting them all together. But I don’t think anyone predicted the kind of year that Davis was going to have. Davis first burst onto the fantasy radar in 2012 with his solid 33 Home Run campaign, but he forced his way into fantasy owners hearts with his 53 HR, 138 RBI season last year. With these numbers it’s easy to make the case for Davis being the 2nd 1B taken off the board, but I think that would be somewhat of a reach. Davis isn’t the patient hitter at the plate like the previous 4 hitters I’ve listed. This eager approach shows in his power numbers but it also shows in other places, like his 199 punch-outs last season, good for 2nd most in the Majors. Other than that, it’s hard to poke holes in Davis’ game. The only reason I have him ranked lower than Votto and Fielder is the consistency they’ve shown their entire careers (save for last season). The only thing I worry about when it comes to Davis is regression. There haven’t been many players that have hit 50 HR’s multiple times in their careers; most all of them were either in the early days of baseball (Ruth, Foxx, Mays) or have been linked to steroids (A-Rod, Sosa, McGwire), so we’re going to have to temper our expectations for him just a little bit. This isn’t saying I think he’ll tank next year, he just played so well last year that it’s going to be hard to match it. If you want to take Davis before Fielder or Votto, I really can’t blame you at all. But for the sake of consistency (and this list) I have him listed behind those two.

6 – Freddie Freeman

Most Fantasy Sports writers seem to agree that after Davis/Fielder/Votto, there’s a dip in the quality of 1B talent available. Don’t tell that to Freddie “Fingers” Freeman. I don’t know if that’s actually a nickname for him or not, but I’m going with it. Freeman is the model of being consistent while quietly getting better. Every year he’s increased his RBI totals while walking more and cutting down on strikeouts. He may not wow you with his numbers but you know just what you’re going to get when you draft him. Expect Freddie to hit just above .300 with around 100 RBI’s and 25 HR’s. If you’re not able to grab one of the elite 1B listed above you could do a lot worse than Freddie Freeman.

7 – Edwin Encarnacion

Much like Chris Davis and teammate Joey Bats, Encarnacion was a late bloomer with power that seemed to come from nowhere. I’ve seen the case made for Encarnacion being the 3rd best fantasy option at first base, but I’m just not buying it. If you’ve read this far then you’ve probably noticed the one theme I’ve highlighted: consistency. Out of the top 10 first baseman listed, Encarnacion is one of the least consistent. His last two years have been outstanding but he didn’t really do anything of note before that. That being said, there are signs he could improve upon last season. His OBP only dropped 14 points from the previous season and he actually only struck out 62 times, compared to his 94 whiffs from the season before. Encarnacion won’t hit .300, but if he can keep his HR rate the same as the past two years (about 1 every 13-14 ABs) then you’ll get exactly what you expect from him: tons of power. And power is never overrated in fantasy baseball.

8 – Albert Pujols

Pujols isn’t the player he used to be, but that doesn’t mean he’s worthless in a fantasy format. Until last year, Pujols was a consensus Top-5 talent at 1B. But after a lackluster year marred by injuries and the entire Angels squad seeming as bored as their fans at a home game, most people wouldn’t mind avoiding Pujols for the upcoming season. And honestly, I wouldn’t either. His numbers have slowly been declining the past couple years and it wouldn’t surprise me to find out he’s actually older than his birth certificate might claim. But in spite of all that, I wouldn’t feel bad taking Pujols as the 7th 1B off the board. As much as he disappointed fantasy owners last season, I’d venture to say this was more because of injuries than a rapidly declining skill set. Before last season, Pujols was averaging just under 155 games played per season. If we extrapolate Pujols’ 2013 stats over an entire season, he puts up somewhat respectable numbers. Assuming the numbers aren’t lying to us, Pujols would have finished last year with 152 H, 77 R, 27 HR, and 100 RBIs. That doesn’t equal an elite first baseman but it’s definitely not bad, and if you pass up on Pujols you could easily be left with a black hole at first base. Some of the younger guys listed below might be more tempting but consistency is the name of the game in fantasy baseball, and for better or for worse, you’re not going to be surprised by Albert Pujols.

9 – Adrian Gonzalez

What’s that word you keep pounding into our skulls again? Consistency? At just 31, Adrian Gonzalez has plenty left in the tank. It also doesn’t hurt to be an integral part of a lineup that includes the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Yasiel Puig. Gonzalez isn’t the power hitter he used to be, but at this point in fantasy drafts you’re looking for players who give you a little bit of everything. He’s likely going to hit just under .300 with around 20 HRs and 100 RBI’s. In ESPN leagues, Adrian Gonzalez is being drafted after players like Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, and Zack Greinke. Now I don’t know about you, but I’d take Adrian Gonzalez above all three of them. Gonzalez is a solid starting 1B, but would be a stellar fit in a team’s 1B/3B slot as well. First base is shallower this year than it has been in the past. Don’t let your team go without a solid guy like Gonzalez because you were drawn into the allure of players like the ones I previously mentioned.

10 – Mike Napoli

You heard it here first. By the end of the season, Mike Napoli will be a Top-10 Fantasy first baseman. Value is the name of the game when getting to the middle and the end of fantasy drafts, and Napoli will arguably give you the most bang for your buck. ESPN has him rated as their 16th best first baseman and 119th player overall. When your draft comes, feel confident in letting the other guys pick up players like Hosmer in the 4th or Trumbo in the 8th while you kick back and wait for Nap to fall to you. Napoli is going to hit you more home runs and RBIs than Hosmer while getting on base at a higher rate than Trumbo. Plus, when Trumbo is mired in one of his famously bad slumps, you’ll be laughing your way to the finals on the back of your majestically bearded steed. While he will most likely end the season batting somewhere around .255/.350/.475, I can easily see him improving his HR and RBI totals. Last year Napoli had the most plate appearances of his career by far, and who’s to say he couldn’t receive even more next season? He’s not being challenged for his job and he has a great supporting cast around him. If Nap can get the AB’s, I can see him pushing 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.

Best of the Rest

Didn’t get any of the guys listed above? Looking for a solid guy to fill your 1B/3B slot? Try these bro’s out for size

Eric Hosmer

Should hit for average, but can he get the power numbers up?

Anthony Rizzo

Pretty much the exact opposite. The power is there, but he needs to get on base more consistently.

Allen Craig

Solid all around, but won’t wow you with any single stat.

Jose Abreu

Who really knows? He could be the next great hitter or he could flop. Either way, he’ll be getting ABs in Chicago and is definitely worth a late round pick.