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“There is a (high) risk that the JSS design and its two ship production work in Vancouver could prove unaffordable,” the DND document produced by the JSS project management office states. “This would necessitate significant re-design work to ensure project affordability or necessitate additional project funding before implementation.”

The DND hopes to minimize changes to the already selected ship design and have the construction costs reviewed by an independent third party. If that is done, then it hopes to reduce the level of risk from high to “significant.”

In addition, the DND noted that there is a “very high” risk that construction of the JSS will be further delayed. The analysis pointed out that the project is experiencing delays caused by the building of the federal government’s fisheries science and oceanographic vessels in the Vancouver Shipyard.

The focus on those ships is preventing “rapid progress on JSS contract negotiations and work,” the defence department document noted.

“There is a risk that the situation will continue to impact the JSS schedule and lead to delays in the planned construction start (2017),” the document warned. “This will result in further loss of purchasing power and delays to the capability delivery to the RCN (Royal Canadian Navy).”

There is also a very high risk that because of the lack of shipbuilding work in Canada over the past 15 years, Vancouver Shipyards might not be able to recruit enough qualified staff, JSS project management officials pointed out.