A national Associated TV/Zogby International poll1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a barely distinguishable 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency. The difference between the candidates is statistically insignificant, but nonetheless indicates a notable turn-around for McCain.

The survey results come as Obama, fresh off what had largely been viewed as a successful tour of the Middle East and Europe, including a speech to 200,000 Germans in Berlin. A recent Gallup Poll showed that Obama had actually gotten a bump in the polls while overseas. But the trip quickly became fodder for an aggressive McCain campaign strategy that included a TV ad comparing the celebrity status of Barack Obama to that of Brittney Spears and Paris Hilton.

Pollster John Zogby said:

“The McCain camp seems to have turned lemons into lemonade. Huge crowds and mostly favorable press reviews of Obama’s overseas trip have been trumped by McCain’s attacks on Obama. Loss of support for Obama among young voters may also be due to his perceived reversals on issues they care about, such as the war and government eavesdropping.”

It is not always easy for me to make the link between environmental issues and electoral politics. However, it is clear this time around that the McCain/Republican party focus on drilling for more oil may, in fact, be gaining them some political favor in the eyes of the American voter. McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups including young people, women, independents, and single voters.

So, do you think these early poll results really matter? Or more importantly, do you think that poll results themselves can have an impact on final voting outcomes?

1. This Zogby survey, commissioned by Associated TV, included 1,011 likely voters and was conducted July 31-Aug. 1, 2008. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. A more complete methodological treatment can be found here.

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