A deal between the European Union (EU) and the UK for the transitional period after Brexit will not be formalized until October 2018, according to a document prepared by the EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. Under the most optimistic scenario, according to which block leaders decide in December that significant progress has been made in the Brexit talks, the indicative negotiating framework set out in the document provides for a start of talks for the transition period no earlier than February next year.

In the development of the favorable scenario, the negotiations will be conducted in parallel with the “preparatory and preparatory discussions” on the future links between London and Brussels. The culmination is scheduled to take place in October 2018 with the signing of a “Political Declaration on Future Relationships”.

This would give time for its ratification by national parliaments before the end of March 2019, when it is set for Britain to leave the EU.

The 14-page document was delivered yesterday (November 16th) by Barnier to the Brexit observation group in the EP. The document states that Michel Barnier will insist that Britain remain within the single market and the customs union, as well as in the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice. It is clear, however, that London will not have “institutional rights”, that is, there will be no political representation in the European institutions, as well as the right to vote in the EU Council.

This transition model would provide security for much of the British business, but the schedule includes some signal lights. The UK companies are pushing for more clarity about the links and regulations they will have to answer after the UK leaves the EU. If there is no clarity, a large part of the business is threatening to move its operations and employees to mainland Europe in order to be able to continue working with the EU or directly redirect investments.

The British authorities continue to insist that a fast deal on the transition could be reached, and then to negotiate trade relations – something that Brussels does not agree at all. Michel Barnier’s paper also does not indicate how long the transition would be. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May suggested the period could last up to two years, but the EC has not yet commented on its point of view.