Who Won the January 17 Democratic Debate on Social Media? For Hillary and Bernie, the Race is Closer Than Ever Crowdbabble Follow Jan 23, 2016 · 6 min read

By Katie Meyer

On January 17, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton faced off in the nationally televised Democratic Presidential Candidates Debate in Charleston, South Carolina. After the debate, pundits struggled to pick a winner in a race that might be getting close. As reported by The New York Times, viewers leaned towards Sanders while third candidate Martin O’Malley “was most notable for his unsuccessful efforts to get a word in.”

National polls conducted by phone indicated that the debate pushed Bernie Sanders closer to the nomination. On social media, have Sanders’ and Clintons’ trajectories also changed?

There might be a correlation between the engagement of social media followers and a candidate’s performance in the polls. Can Bernie and Hillary’s followers on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram help predict who will win the nomination?

Points vs. Followers Before the Debate

Between December 19 and January 19, national polls have shifted drastically in favour of Bernie Sanders.

As of December 19, according to a Monmouth University poll of Democrats conducted nationwide, Hillary Clinton had 59 points. She also had 7,552,887 total followers across Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Sanders had 26 points, and 3,754,109 social media followers on the three platforms.

It’s not a perfect comparison: the poll allowed respondents to choose between all democratic candidates while the share of followers only includes Sanders and Clinton. Still, their share of followers and their share of respondents are similar.

Before the debate, Hillary Clinton had more than double Sanders’ social media following and double the points in the poll.