Ledge (GNS) King

Florida Today

Donald Trump continues to lead Sen. Marco Rubio in next week's Florida winner-take-all presidential primary, a new Monmouth University poll finds.

The poll showed Trump with 38%, Rubio with 30%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 17% and Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 10%. The telephone poll of 403 likely GOP primary voters, conducted March 3-6, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

It's a mixed bag for Rubio, whom most analysts believe must win his home state's winner-take-all March 15 primary -- and Florida's 99 delegates -- to have any chance at the GOP nomination.

Story continues below

Rubio trails both Trump and Cruz substantially in the quest for the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination. But his 8-point deficit in the new poll is half the 16-point lead Trump enjoyed in a Quinnipiac University survey two weeks ago.

And Rubio is trouncing Trump 48-23% among Floridians who have already voted. More than half of Sunshine State voters are expected to cast ballots before the primary.

Rubio leads in Brevard campaign contributions

Story continues below

Trump has led Rubio in each of the 20 previous Florida polls since August, according to RealClearPolitics. And he has a commanding 42-26% lead among those who have yet to vote.

“Rubio is within shooting distance in his home state with a week to go in this volatile nomination contest,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “It is telling, though, that Rubio is not even the clear victor in a direct face-off with Trump. There goes the argument that Rubio would triumph if only it were a two-person race.”

The new poll found Trump would beat Rubio 47-45% in a head-to-head match-up -- a statistical tie due to the margin of error.

Rubio focuses on Florida voters this week