STEVE DOANE

SDOANE@NEWS-PRESS.COM

Billions of dollars in coastal homes and infrastructure are being threatened by rising sea levels, but you wouldn't know it by the actions of local governments.

Other parts of the state are underway with planning and preparations. Southwest Florida is not and that could be costly.

Sea level rise is a slow, creeping process — only millimeters a year right now — but the rate is accelerating, according to many scientists.

Southwest Florida is at particular risk. The flat topography, porous bedrock and heavily developed coast mean just a few inches of sea level rise could have disastrous consequences.

If climate models hold, the area could experience up to 4 feet of sea level rise by 2100. That would put thousands of acres and billions of dollars of property and infrastructure underwater.

It's already evident in some places, like Cape Coral, where some marshes have moved more than a football field inland since the 1950s due to rising sea levels.

Lee and Collier governments do not have specific plans to address the impacts of sea level rise, despite the threat. Both counties have implemented plans for water-related events caused by hurricanes, such as storm surge, but lack the cohesive approach to rising sea levels demonstrated in other vulnerable communities in the state.

At least one commissioner even questioned if sea rise level was a myth. There's also the question of political will. It will take hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer money to make the changes necessary to ready the coast.

READ:

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How is everyone else dealing with sea level rise?

Lee County paid $50,000 for sea level rise vulnerability and resiliency studies in 2010, but county leaders haven't implemented them into strategic plans.

"I think we need to look at how fast the sea levels are rising and before we start throwing out ideas," said Lee Commissioner Brian Hamman.

Leaders in Collier County have taken actions to prepare for rising waters from storms, which they say will cover sea level rise effects.

"You don't address sea level rise specifically, you address all rising waters in your community," said Collier County Commissioner Georgia Hiller. "It's like asking if we're prepared for a fire in the kitchen; we protect the whole house."

Naples Mayor John Sorey said his city is working with various federal and state agencies regarding saltwater intrusion, but that's about it.

"At this juncture we haven't done that much because we haven't seen that much of an increase in sea level rise, like the East Coast has," he said.

Punta Gorda is regarded as one of the best-prepared cities in the country following a 2008 overhaul of city guidelines supported by resident input. The action was brought after Hurricane Charley pummeled the city in 2004.

"It's important to get this planning in place, even if it (sea level rise) takes longer than the projections, the planning is in place for when it does," said Harold Wanless, chairman and professor of geological sciences at the University of Miami. "They (leaders) have to accept the coming reality and abandon some sectors to the coming sea."

Southeast Florida has taken the problem seriously. The area from Palm Beach to Key West, particularly Miami and Miami Beach, has been pegged the epicenter for sea level rise in the United States.

Leaders in Broward and Miami-Dade are revising zoning standards and investing in infrastructure, while images of a flooded South Beach have graced media outlets from The Guardian to Time to Rolling Stone.

"On this coast, my impression is there have been more people in decision-making positions that have been able to move stuff along, whereas on the west coast it's been the regional planners, people not really in the government hierarchy," said Leonard Berry, director of the Florida Center for Environmental Studies at Florida Atlantic University.

The issue moving forward is whether leaders in Southwest Florida will take the initiative to head off the effects before they become more widespread and painful.

Regional planners have outlined steps governments can take to mitigate and adapt to the rising seas. The topic is too important for local leaders to put off and wait for the effects to become more evident, said Jim Beever, principal planner at the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council and widely regarded as the region's foremost expert on sea level rise.

While disappointed more action wasn't taken on the reports, Beever said there's still time to act before the major impacts are felt.

"I like to say, belief in sea level rise is voluntary, participation in mandatory," he said.

Damage assessment

Since measurements of the tidal gauge data started being taken at Key West in 1910, the Gulf has risen between 8 and 9 inches. Subsequent measurements in Fort Myers and St. Petersburg support this. At the moment, the seas rise at a rate of 0.12 inches per year, but that's accelerating. How much will depend on a number of factors.

So far most sea rise has been caused by oceans absorbing atmospheric heat and expanding. Like mercury in a thermometer, when seawater is heated it expands. Additional sea level rise will come from glacial meltwater. The timing is in flux, however, as climate models and research are refined and more carbon is added to the atmosphere, Wanless said.

The implications are far-reaching for Southwest Florida.

"One foot, in this part of the world you can get used to, you get your feet wet too often, 2 feet gets tricky, and 3 feet is a real major problem," Berry said. "The projections now show that three feet is really probably by the end of the century."

A News-Press analysis of property values and topographic maps shows the region has about $15 billion of property value within 3 feet of current sea levels. It's an approximation because census data don't match the maps used perfectly. The heavily built-up coastline, low profile and tourism-reliant economy mean changes, large or small, will have severe effects.

Southwest Florida

It's not often a public official scoffs at something.

But at the Feb. 11 Collier Board of County Commissioners meeting Commission Chairman Tom Henning did.

The board was discussing beach renourishment projects when the conversation turned to sea level rise.

"Well, 30 years ago we didn't have sea level rise and, of course, we didn't have Y2K either at that time. And at that time we knew that if you ate too much bacon you're going to get cancer," Henning said.

"So you're telling me that my land is now lower than it was 30 years ago?" Commissioner Donna Fiala said in response.

"No. I'm just saying that people want to profit on theories, which is Y2K," Henning said before the subject changed.

Y2K was a predicted computer problem in which programs using two-digit dates instead of four would revert to the year 1900 instead of 2000 at the end of the last century, causing widespread technical issues. The threat turned out to be overblown.

Henning did not respond to multiple email and phone requests for comment.

Henning's sentiment is prevalent throughout the region.

Beever's 2010 planning council study represents the best assessment of the risks faced by the region.

"The likely effect of climate change and particularly seal level rise on Lee County and Southwest Florida ecosystems and infrastructure development are too great for policymakers, property owners and the public at large to stand by and wait for greater evidence before considering strategies for adaptation," Beever wrote.

Among other things, the plan calls for a public forum for citizens to determine how they'd like to go about adaptation, either through armoring — sea walls, like in the Netherlands — planned relocation or building adaptation — i.e. make buildings that deal with increased sea levels. The planned relocation option is by far the most cost-efficient, according to the report.

Small portions of the report were incorporated into the county's comprehensive plan, but little has been done.

Collier leaders haven't requested a vulnerability assessment from the planning council. There are no projects or studies underway or plans to specifically address threats from sea level rise, according to county staff.

The county land use code does ask builders to plan for 6 inches of sea level rise, which could happen as soon as 2020 under some projections.

This doesn't mean Collier is ignoring the risks of sea level rise or has failed to plan for them, it just means they're not limited to rising oceans, Hiller said.

She cited the county's work on mangrove preservation — particularly in Clam Bay — as well as efforts to restore vegetation near Collier's beaches.

"I think it's important to frame the issue correctly," she said. "It's not whether the seas are going to rise, it's whether we're prepared for any kind of rising water."

East Coast

In 2009, governments from Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe counties formed an alliance to investigate ways to prepare for the rising oceans.

The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact has since devised regional responses to sea level rise, including obtaining grant money from state and federal agencies and collaborating on adaptation plans and policies.

"The beauty of the compact is we have all these people working on this problem across these four counties with different expertise and we don't have to duplicate it four times over," said Jennifer Jurado, Broward's director of natural resources planning and management division and a member of the compact's steering board.

Individual counties have launched their own initiatives, including Miami-Dade Sea Level Rise Task Force's report earlier this month on concrete steps the county can take mitigate dangers.

"With trillions of dollars of built environment and invaluable natural resources at stake in the region, the economic imperative to take action sooner rather than later is clear," he report states.

Broward has worked sea level rise elements into its comprehensive plan, the county's land use code denotes the area vulnerable to 2 feet of sea level for special consideration and planners are required to account for sea level rise when devising capital projects, Juardo said.

The county even has two full-time staffers who work on sea level rise issues.

"It isn't in 50 years, it isn't in 100 years, it's happening today and we feel these investments are prudent and necessary to protect our citizens," she said.

What could happen by 2100

Southwest Florida is in imminent danger if sea level rises 3 feet. Coastal areas are most vulnerable, but even some low-lying more inland areas, like Centennial Park in downtown Fort Myers, would be submerged. The Third National Climate Assessment, released earlier this year, predicts global sea levels will rise by 1-4 feet by 2100, but that estimate could vary.

Pine Island Sound and Matlacha Pass

Pine Island Sound and Matlacha Pass will be one of the harder hit areas of sea level rise, causing entire islands and large portions of marsh to disappear. Fort Myers itself won't be particularly affected due to its inland location and the relative height of its land.

1. Useppa Island and Cabbage Key » These low-lying islands will lose most of their landmass along with dozens of high-priced homes.

2.Little Pine Island » This sparsely populated island will disappear under three feet of sea level rise.

3.Cape Coral » Dredged canals will enable rising seas and storm surge to reach further inland, making structures not along the coast more vulnerable.

4.Centennial Park » Mangroves will not survive three feet of sea level rise because they cannot migrate to higher ground.

Sanibel

Sanibel's barrier island status, along with its low, swampy profile, make it particularly vulnerable to multiple aspects of sea level rise, including increased erosion.

5.J.N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge » Nearly all of Sanibel's signature attractions will be affected, if not submerged by rising seas.

6.Sanibel Lighthouse » With three feet of sea level rise, the lighthouse will be the only thing above water at the eastern edge of the island.

7. Sanibel River » A large portion of the island's storm water is channeled into the river. Rising seas will make drainage more inefficient.

Fort Myers Beach

Large portions of Estero Island and Estero Bay are vulnerable to sea level rise because they're low to the Gulf. Expect to see more flooding around Estero Boulevard in rainstorms.

8.Times Square » Area will be prone to increased flooding and inundation during high tides and storm events.

9. Matanzas Island » Rising seas will inundate most of the eastern portion of the island.

10.Southern end of Estero Island » Despite renourishment efforts, beaches on this end of the island will suffer increased erosion as seas rise.

11. Mound Key » This island will be one of the few in Estero Bay not completely flooded by three feet of sea rise. This is due to the large Calusa shell mound.

Bonita Springs

Estuary systems and densely populated coastal communities make Bonita Springs susceptible to rising seas

12. Big Hickory Island » This island at the southern end of Lovers Key State Park will disappear under three feet of sea level rise. Large portions of the entire park will be affected.

13. Spring Creek » With three feet of sea level rise, water will move deeply into the Pelican Landing and Bonita Bay communities.

14. Little Hickory Island » This densely populated coastline will experience more frequent flooding in storm or high tide events.

15. Imperial River » Rising sea levels will affect homes and businesses far inland as the water travels up the river. Will also affect flora and fauna.

Naples

Naples is home to some of the priciest real estate in the country, but it's vulnerable to sea level rise around the Naples Bay area.

16. Fifth Ave. » The downtown Naples area will be subject to increased flooding as sea levels rise with areas along the water becoming frequently submerged.

17. Gordon River » Sea water, traveling up the river, will affect non-coastal sites like the Naples Airport and Naples Zoo, along with surrounding homes and businesses.

18. Gov. Rick Scott's house » The governor's beachfront home on Gordon Drive is about a foot above sea level and faces storm surge risks.

19. Naples Botanical Gardens » The park in East Naples will be almost completely inundated with three feet of sea level rise.

Marco Island

Marco Island and the Ten Thousand Islands are at risk to sea level rise due to man made and natural elements. The extensive canal network on Marco enables seawater to move further inland and the extremely low height of much of the land around the islands means incremental changes in sea level have drastic effects.

20.Isles of Capri » Home to a small community, this area would experience more frequent flooding and would be susceptible to storm-related surges.

21. Tigertail Beach » One of Marco's most popular beaches, Tigertail would be subject to frequent erosion due to rising seas.

22.Cape Romano » Morgan Island has seen powerful erosion forces reshape its coastline in the past 30 years. Nowhere is this more evident than at Cape Romano, where the beach has retreated more than 25 feet.

23.Ten Thousand Islands » Most of the island chain is less than a foot above sea level, it extremely vulnerable to slight sea level changes.

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