Jeb Bush blew it.

The former Florida governor was a ghost for most of Wednesday’s GOP presidential debate — and when he spoke up, he was swiftly and effectively counterpunched, most notably by Sen. Marco Rubio. As a result, he lost the opportunity to lift his sagging campaign, say insiders surveyed for a special edition of the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly survey of the top operatives, activists and strategists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.


Nearly 60 percent of respondents said Bush lost the CNBC debate, botching his comeback opportunity and looking desperate in an attempt to attack Rubio’s poor attendance record in the Senate. They offered their reactions immediately after watching Wednesday’s prime-time debate in Boulder, Colo.

“[Bush] looked opportunistic and desperate when he went after Sen. Rubio on missing votes and after he walked straight into a crushing right hook,” said one Iowa GOP insider. “He also looked weak and ineffective. The exchange diminished an already failing candidacy.”

Added a South Carolina Republican, "Tonight's performance will do nothing to stop the downward spiral that his campaign is experiencing."

Bush's loss was Rubio's gain: Just shy of half of GOP insiders said Rubio won the night, steamrolling his one-time mentor. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz came in a distant second and third, respectively.

"Rubio knew he was going to be asked a question about his attendance record coming into tonight's debate, but he didn't let it rattle him. He was prepared, and when Jeb Bush tried to nail it on him, he obliterated him," said an Iowa Republican. "Anytime you walk away with a scalp to put on your mantel, you won."

Bush had attempted to mock Rubio’s missed votes, saying the Florida senator should consider resigning if he can’t do the job he was elected to do for a full six-year term. It was one of Bush's sharpest attacks of the campaign — and a clearly well-rehearsed line — but a spry Rubio parried.

“Someone has convinced you that attacking me is going to help you,” he said calmly.

Bush failed to respond, and was then largely invisible for the rest of the night — he finished dead last of the 10 participants in terms of speaking time. GOP insiders noticed.

“Bush got his a-- kicked by Rubio; he's done,” said another Iowa Republican.

The only other time Bush made noise was when he suggested that fantasy football betting is akin to insider trading and worried that it’s unregulated. But Christie stole the moment, ridiculing the moderator's question about whether the federal government should be involved in fantasy football at a time when ISIL is on the move and federal debt is soaring.

"Bush was like the sucker you like to see walk into your poker game. Easy money," said an Iowa insider. "He was obliterated by Rubio. Mocked by Christie. And when not struggling on the stage, was a forgotten man."

Democrats rendered precisely the same judgment, with 61 percent seeing a clear Bush loss and 42 percent giving Rubio the victory.

"Jeb's performance was once again lackluster," said a Nevada Democrat. "It's unbelievable that he or his campaign team have not yet made the adjustments necessary to improve his performance after the last two failed debates."

"Rubio has continued to emerge from the field and prove his ability," added a South Carolina Democrat.

The debate itself was choppy — moderators struggled to control the dialogue and were criticized by the candidates for their occasionally tough questions. But those plays to the crowd often earned the applause of a frustrated Republican audience, leading a few Caucus respondents to conclude the moderators were the ones who bombed the debate.

"CNBC moderators are going to take more heat as the losers than any of the candidates," said one New Hampshire Republican.

The disappearance of Donald Trump

Not a single GOP insider rated Trump, the Republican front-runner, as the victor, but barely any said he lost. It was a remarkable fade to the background for the oxygen-stealing showman who thrives on poll results and drives ratings. One respondent rated his performance a "C." Another said he seemed "banal" and disengaged in the latter portion of the debate.

Trump avoided the kind of memorable or incendiary exchanges that marked his first two debate performances, though he tangled briefly with John Kasich, the Ohio governor who's struggled for attention in recent weeks. Trump dismissed Kasich's stewardship of Ohio's economy as luck because of a fracking boom. Trump also used his closing statements to tout his skill at negotiating — with CNBC. He said he helped convince the network to limit the debate to two hours.

Ben Carson, who surpassed Trump in a recent national poll, also barely left a mark despite high expectations coming in — just 6 percent said he won, and 10 percent said he lost.

"Carson often appeared like a naive deer in the headlights with no answers," said a South Carolina Republican.

