India was not having any aggressive designs against Pakistan and Sharif’s letter diplomacy will help Modi too.

India is upbeat about Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s very polite and apt three-paragraph letter to his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in which he has talked about poverty alleviation in both countries being their "common economic destiny" but refrained from using the K-word even once.

If Sharif’s visit to India on 26 May (for Modi’s swearing in as Prime Minister) and his talks with Modi the next day broke new grounds, the Pakistani premier’s letter to Modi is being seen as a potential gamechanger. This is even more so because Pakistani media was agog with reports that Sharif was "not too happy" with his India visit because no joint communique was issued and there was no joint press conference after the talks as Sharif had expected.

Sharif’s letter, saying that he was “much satisfied” with his “meaningful” talks with Modi, has effectively rebuffed such kite-flying news reports.

The letter diplomacy serves several tactical points from Sharif’s perspective.

One, it is a message meant for his domestic constituency. The kind of contradictory and speculative reports that were doing the rounds in Pakistan about his India visit were not doing good to his profile. Such reports indicated that he was shortchanged by Modi. It would have harmed him politically.

Two, it would shift the focus on to India and the Modi-led government by spreading the message both domestically and internationally that Pakistan was all too ready and eager for smoking the peace pipe with India.

Three, it would have the Pakistan Army’s acquiescence and approval and thus would help him in his personal engagement with the military leadership. This is important because Sharif has been ousted as PM twice earlier by two different army chiefs and has himself been instrumental in sacking two army chiefs during his earlier prime ministerial tenures.

This point needs a little more elaboration. Why should Pakistan Army support and approve his letter diplomacy with Modi? Isn’t it strange that it took the Pakistan government days to decide on Narendra Modi’s invitation to Sharif for attending his oath-taking and the matter was resolved only after Nawaz Sharif’s brother and Punjab chief minister Shahbaz met Pakistan army chief General Raheel Sharif and urged him to let the prime minister visit India?

Nawaz Sharif’s letter to Modi must have had complete approval of Rawalpindi. In fact, one should not be surprised if the very idea of Sharif writing a letter to Modi conveying his ‘happiness’ over his India visit germinated in Rawalpindi.

In the wake of two deadly terror attacks on Karachi international airport in the past three days Pakistan army’s top brass must have realized that at least for now Pakistan’s enemy number one is Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), not India. In any case, no army in the world can afford to have two simultaneous battlefronts and win both. Pakistan army would like to send a clever signal to India to cool off while it deals with the TTP.

In any case, India was not having any aggressive designs against Pakistan and Sharif’s letter diplomacy will help Modi too.

One most immediate likely fallout of this can be that the India-Pakistan peace talks would start earlier than expected. After the 27 May Modi-Sharif talks, the Indian diplomatic establishment was chary of predicting a breakthrough and foreign secretary Sujatha Singh merely said that the two foreign secretaries will keep in touch. The MEA has never committed to specific dates for meetings at the level of ministers and senior officials between India and Pakistan.

This may change after Sharif’s letter to Modi.

Sharif Letter by Firstpost

The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.