The fact that Brexit will be a total disaster brought about by deceitful propaganda and an illegitimate, undemocratic procedure, is now firmly established. Brexiteers, if you are not yet ready for reality: print and read in 2 years.

The election has produced a bigger remain-majority in Parliament:

“Hard Brexit” is a logically consistent, albeit disastrous, course of action. “Soft Brexit” is a nonsensical placeholder for the other logically consistent and only sensible course of action (until that becomes permissible to think and speak): “Stop Brexit”. Interpreting Labor-votes as endorsing “Hard Brexit” is ridiculous and desperate. “Soft” is the tactically smart “Stop”. A second referendum is a similar placeholder: systemically more consistent but electorally less effective.

Coming events will produce a bigger remain-majority in the general public:

Brexit negotiations will expose the utter lack of strategy, preparation, competence, and capacity of the UK-side. The UK public will experience the piling up of overwhelming, unresolved and lose-lose negotiation-fronts; the timescale becomes visibly unrealistic. The resulting impasse in the separation agreement will highlight the Government’s logistical and intellectual inability to autonomously engage in new trading-agreements. A continuing slowdown of foreign direct investment will weaken employment. Lost economic momentum, ratings-downgrades, and Bank of England policy will depress Sterling further. The city will accelerate its move to the continent as hopes dwindle and GBP compensation evaporates. The drop in EU-immigration will accentuate supply problems in key sectors (e.g. healthcare, construction, agriculture) and sustain imported inflation. All of the above will damage public finances and necessitate further austerity. Consequently, real household incomes will continue to fall. Real estate prices will drop creating home equity squeezes and undermining consumer spending further. Separation desires in Scotland, NI, and Wales will flourish. A weak and fully absorbed Government will become domestically inactive: Heathrow-expansion, HS2, Trident, policing, (health)care, will go unattended and unfunded. Any serious national security challenge will be difficult to respond to forcefully. These developments will diminish other nation’s interest in pursuing UK trade deals. All opposition parties will thrive, but also the DUP and the Scottish Conservatives will have to respond; Remain Tories will feel emboldened, Labour Leavers go silent.

This economic and constitutional state of emergency supersedes anyhow misused democracy nonsense, e.g. “will of the people”. I see the following scenarios:

A Corbyn Government: his Remainers and coalition partners can force a stop of the Brexit process, if he does not come to that conclusion himself. Seeing the imminent collapse of UK governance, the EU will agree. An open-ended transitional agreement at EU terms (continued free movement, payments, and European Court of Justice oversight), likely to become permanent or the departure-point for a Brexit reversal. The time and experience gained will cure the British public and its (probably changed) Government from the Brexit virus.

Luckily, no Government will be strong enough to leave without a deal in these circumstances. That would amount to becoming a failed state because the combined lack of domestic economic substance, international integration, and responsible political leadership would make orderly statehood unsustainable.

At this point, your political class in England and Northern Ireland lacks the experience, moderation, and intellectual calibre to exit and replace EU rule, even if that were beneficial. It will take years until it learns (and is trusted) again to be a constructive, let alone influential EU member.

Ironically, renewed EU membership (in an irreversibly diminished role), will turn out to be the only road to the UK’s continued existence as a sovereign and united state that can generate the means to sustain its identity and dignity.

* Arnold Kiel is a self-employed Management Consultant, father of two sons in British education, and very concerned about their future in this Europe