Tracy Booth casts her in-person absentee ballot at City Hall in downtown Grand Rapids on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016. (Allison Farrand | MLive.com)

Five Thirty Eight forecasts U.S. House election results

Nearly all of Michigan voters will have at least two candidates to choose from in their U.S. House districts, but the latest forecasts from the analytics site FiveThirtyEight indicate most of the state's incumbent members of Congress are safe.

Of the 11 Michigan U.S. Representatives facing challenges this year, seven had more than a 95 percent chance of winning reelection, the analysis found.

FiveThirtyEight, headed by statistician Nate Silver, currently forecast the open 11th seat will lean Democratic, and that the 8th Congressional district race could be a toss up between incumbent Mike Bishop and Democrat Elissa Slotkin.

The analysis bases its predictions on polls, fundraising, past voting in the district, historical trends and expert ratings and is set to be updated frequently ahead of the November elections.

Explore FiveThirtyEight's projections for the entire country here, and see the site's methodology for the forecast here.

Below are their current predictions for each U.S. House seat in Michigan.

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LEFT: Lauren Gibbons | MLive RIGHT: Courtesy Matt Morgan campaign

1st District likely Republican

FiveThirtyEight gave incumbent U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman, R-Watersmeet, an 88.9 percent chance of defeating Democratic challenger Matt Morgan in the 1st Congressional District general election.

Their current vote estimate is 55.3 percent for Bergman and 44.7 percent for Morgan.

Bergman was first elected in 2016, coming through a competitive Republican primary and defeating Democrat Lon Johnson to replace outgoing Republican Rep. Dan Benishek in Congress.

Morgan suffered a setback when a petition signature filing error prevented him from running on the Democratic primary ticket. His primary write-in campaign earned enough votes to earn him the Democratic nomination for the general election.

The 1st District encompasses much of northern Michigan, including the entirety of the Upper Peninsula.

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LEFT: U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Zeeland, talks to reporters after a memorial service for former congressman Vernon J. Ehlers at Eastern Avenue Christian Reformed Church in Grand Rapids on Thursday, Aug. 24, 2017. (Cory Morse | MLive.com) RIGHT: Dr. Robert Davidson asks Congressman Bill Huizenga his stance on health care during a town hall event at the Lakeshore Middle School auditorium in Grand Haven on Monday, March 6, 2017. (Joel Bissell | MLive.com)

2nd District solidly Republican

In the 2nd Congressional District, FiveThirtyEight gives incumbent Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Zeeland, a 97.4 percent chance of winning the seat.

Their prediction for the final vote is 56.7 percent for Huizenga, and 40.3 percent for Democratic challenger Rob Davidson, and 3 percent to other candidates.

Huizenga was first elected to the seat in 2011, and he won the 2016 election with more than 60 percent of the vote.

Davidson got into the race to challenge Huizenga on health care issues and has touted his experience as a physician throughout the campaign cycle. One of his main policy pillars is support of a single payer health care system.

The district covers Ottawa, Muskegon, Oceana, Lake and Newaygo counties as well as parts of Mason, Allegan and Kent counties.

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LEFT: Cathy Albro (photo courtesy Cathy Albro campaign) RIGHT: Justin Amash speaks at a town hall meeting in 2017. (Mike Clark | MLive.com)

3rd District solidly Republican

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, R-Cascade Twp., has a 98.8 percent chance of winning, according to the FiveThirtyEight analysis.

The website's current vote prediction is 58.2 percent for Amash and 38.9 percent to Democratic challenger Cathy Albro, and 2.9 percent to other candidates.

The district stretches from Albion in the south to Sand Lake in the north and includes all or portions of Barry, Calhoun, Ionia, Kent and Montcalm counties.

Cathy Albro defeated Grand Rapids pastor Fred Wooden in the 3rd District's Democratic primary, but the district has long favored Republicans.

The general election race will also have an independent candidate, Douglas Smith.

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U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Midland, answers questions in the MLive/Saginaw News office in Old Town Saginaw on Thursday, Feb. 23, 2017. The Saginaw News/MLive.com

4th District solidly Republican

FiveThirtyEight predicts U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Midland, has a 99.7 percent chance of winning reelection in the 4th Congressional District.

The site currently predicts Moolenaar will earn 63 percent of the vote to Democratic challenger Jerry Hilliard's 37 percent.

The district covers 15 counties in central and northern Michigan.

Moolenaar was first elected to the district in 2014.

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LEFT: Travis Wines (Courtesy Travis Wines campaign) RIGHT: U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Flint Twp. Lauren Gibbons | MLive

5th District solidly Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Flint Twp., has a 99.9 percent chance of winning reelection in the 5th Congressional District, FiveThirtyEight found.

The site's current forecast predicts Kildee will earn 64 percent of the vote to Republican challenger Travis Wines' 33.2 percent, with 2.9 percent going to other candidates.

Michigan's 5th Congressional District consists of Arenac, Bay, Genesee, and Iosco counties and parts of Saginaw and Tuscola counties. U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee was first elected to the Democratic leaning district in 2012, taking over for his uncle, retiring Rep. Dale Kildee.

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LEFT: U.S. Representative Fred Upton speaks in Miller Auditorium during a celebration marking the retirement of President John M. Dunn on campus on Friday, April 7, 2017. (Jake Green | MLive.com) RIGHT: Matt Longjohn speaks with reporters after a speech at his Tuesday night election watch party at Bell's Eccentric Cafe in Kalamazoo. Daniel Vasta | MLive.com

6th District leans Republican

U.S. Rep. Fred Upton, R-St. Joseph, has an 88.6 percent likelihood of winning reelection in the 6th Congressional District, FiveThirtyEight found.

Their latest vote prediction was Upton getting 53.4 percent to Democrat Matt Longjohn's 43.7 percent, with 2.9 percent going to other candidates.

Upton was first elected to Congress in 1986. Longjohn is the former YMCA national health officer and emerged the victor from a competitive four-way primary.

The 6th District covers the counties of Kalamazoo, Van Buren, Cass, St. Joseph, Berrien, and most of Allegan County.

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LEFT: U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton (MLive File photo) RIGHT: Gretchen Driskell (Courtesy Gretchen Driskell campaign)

7th district leans Republican

FiveThirtyEight predicts incumbent U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, has a 74.7 percent chance of defeating Democrat Gretchen Driskell in the 7th Congressional District in November.

The site predicts Walberg will receive 52.7 percent of the vote to Driskell's 42.3 percent.

Walberg first served a two-year term starting in 2007 and was ultimately reelected in 2010 after losing an election to Democrat Mark Schauer. Driskell, a former state representative, ran against Walberg in 2016 and lost.

The 7th Congressional district includes all of Monroe, Lenawee, Hillsdale, Branch, Jackson and Eaton counties, as well as western Washtenaw.

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LEFT: Democrat Elissa Slotkin campaigns in Brighton, Mich., on April 30, 2018. Lauren Gibbons | MLive.com RIGHT: Mike Bishop speaks during the Michigan Republican Party "ComMITT to the COMEBACK Rally" on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2014 at the Laurel Manor in Livonia. Jake May | MLive.com

8th District a tossup

FiveThirtyEight predicts the 8th Congressional District will be a close one, currently giving incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop, R-Rochester, a 56.5 percent chance of winning reelection.

The site predicts the vote will be close, currently estimating Bishop will earn 49.1 percent to Democrat Elissa Slotkin's 47.8 percent, and 3.1 percent of the vote going to other candidates.

Bishop was first elected to represent the 8th Congressional District in 2014. Slotkin is a former U.S. State Department and Department of Defense official.

The district covers Ingham and Livingston Counties as well as a portion of Oakland County.

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Courtesy Andy Levin campaign

9th District solidly Democratic

Andy Levin, son of outgoing U.S. Rep. Sandy Levin, D-Royal Oak, has a 99.3 percent chance of winning in the 9th Congressional District's general election, the FiveThirtyEight analysis found.

The site currently predicts Levin will earn 59.2 percent of the vote to Republican Candius Stearns' 37.1 percent, with 3.8 percent going to other candidates.

This Southeast Michigan Congressional district is made up of portions of Macomb and Oakland counties.

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U.S. Rep. Paul Mitchell, R-Dryden. Lauren Gibbons | MLive.com

10th district solidly Republican

U.S. Rep. Paul Mitchell, R-Dryden, has a 99.8 percent chance of winning reelection in the 10th Congressional District, FiveThirtyEight found.

The site predicts Mitchell will take home 62.2 percent of the vote to Democrat Kimberly Bizon's 34.4 percent, with other candidates earning 3.4 percent of the vote.

Mitchell was first elected to the seat in 2016 to replace outgoing Rep. Candice Miller. Bizon emerged the victor in a three-way Democratic primary in August.

The district includes Huron, Lapeer, St. Clair and Sanilac counties, as well as parts of Macomb and Tuscola counties.

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LEFT: Courtesy Haley Stevens campaign. Right: Courtesy Lena Epstein campaign.

Open 11th District leans Democratic, FiveThirtyEight finds

In the open 11th Congressional District, FiveThirtyEight predicted Democrat Haley Stevens had a slight edge, giving her a 66.4 percent chance of taking the seat.

The site predicted Stevens would earn 49.7 percent of the vote to Republican Lena Epstein's 46.5 percent, with other candidates in the race earning 3.7 percent of the vote total.

Stevens and Epstein both emerged from competitive five-way primaries to compete for the seat currently held by outgoing U.S. Rep. Dave Trott, R-Birmingham.

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U.S. Congresswoman Debbie Dingell speaks during a press conference at Grand Valley State University's Pew Campus on July 5, 2018. Neil Blake | MLive.com

12th District solidly Democratic

FiveThirtyEight gave U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Dearborn, a 99.9 percent chance of winning reelection in the 12th Congressional District.

The site currently predicts Dingell will earn 68.5 percent of the vote to Republican Jeff Jones 28.1 percent of the vote, with other candidates earning 3.4 percent of the vote.

Dingell was first elected to the seat in 2014 and replaced her husband John Dingell in Congress.

The district includes Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, Dearborn and other Downriver communities, including Taylor, Woodhaven and Grosse Ile.

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Rashida Tlaib speaks at a rally for a dad who faces deportation and has taken up sanctuary at Central United Methodist Church in Detroit at the the Detroit ICE offices Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018. (Tanya Moutzalias | MLive Detroit)

Tlaib's win all but certain in the 13th

Former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib has a 99.9 percent chance of winning election in the 13th Congressional District, FiveThirtyEight found.

The site estimated Tlaib would earn at least 83.7 percent of the vote, with 16.3 percent going to other candidates.

Tlaib would replace former U.S. Rep. John Conyers Jr., who served the Detroit area and surrounding suburbs in Congress for decades before stepping down following sexual harassment allegations in December 2017.

Tlaib pulled through a heavily contested primary to win election to the two-year term, although she lost the special election to fill Conyers' seat for the remainder of the current term to Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones.

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U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence, D-Southfield. Lauren Gibbons | MLive.com

14th District solidly Democratic

FiveThirtyEight predicts incumbent U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence has a 99.9 percent chance of winning reelection in the 14th Congressional District.

The site currently estimates Lawrence will earn 78.9 percent of the vote to Republican Marc Herschfus' 17.7 percent, with 3.4 percent going to other candidates.

Lawrence was first elected to represent the district in 2014.

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MLive file photo

Election information

The general election will take place Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018.

Check your ballot and see if you are registered to vote at Michigan's Secretary of State website.

MLive Media Group has partnered with the League of Women Voters of Michigan to provide candidate information and other voting resources to our Michigan readers.

Information on all state and federal races and many of Michigan's county and local races are now available on MLive via Vote411.org - the election-information website run by the League of Women Voters.