Voters in Ohio — the electoral bellwether that’s picked the winner of every presidential race since 1964 — have generally positive views of international trade and want the U.S. to play a leading role in world affairs, according to a new POLITICO/AARP survey.

But the poll of voters in the key swing state also shows the complicated nature of public opinion about the country’s place in the world in the era of President Donald Trump.


Just a quarter of voters, 25 percent, say the U.S. should take the leading role in world affairs.

A majority rejects the U.S. as a hegemon, however. Forty-six percent say the U.S. should play a major role in world affairs, but not the leading role. And a combined 19 percent say the U.S. should play a minor role in world affairs, or no role at all.

In a sign of how the GOP has changed under Trump, the partisan divides on this question are modest. Among Republicans, 28 percent say the U.S. should take the leading role in world affairs, only slightly more than the 24 percent of Democrats who say that’s the role the U.S. should play.

Voters 50 and older are only slightly more likely to say the U.S. should play the leading role in the world — 28 percent, compared with 25 percent of all voters.

No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio, and the state moved significantly toward the GOP in the most recent presidential election. Trump carried Ohio by 8 percentage points, just four years removed from President Barack Obama’s 3-point victory there in 2012.

But the GOP faces the prospect of a snap-back toward Democrats that could cost the party dearly in November. The POLITICO/AARP poll showed Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown well ahead of his GOP challenger, Rep. Jim Renacci, 47 percent to 31 percent. The race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. John Kasich is deadlocked, with Republican state Attorney General Mike DeWine leading Democrat Richard Cordray, the former state attorney general, by just a single point, 39 percent to 38 percent.

Democrats have a 7-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, 43 percent to 36 percent, the poll shows — despite the fact Republicans currently hold 12 of the state’s 16 House seats. (Democrats are targeting three House districts in the state in this year’s elections, one of which POLITICO rates a toss-up.)

One reason for the GOP’s plight is clear, according to the poll: Trump. The president’s approval rating is just 42 percent, and a 55 percent majority disapproves of his job performance.

Trump’s overall poor poll numbers come despite earning higher marks on a number of key issues. A majority of Ohio voters, 57 percent, approve of the way he is handling the economy and jobs, and roughly half, 51 percent, approve of his handling of national security issues.

The top midterm-election issue for voters in Ohio is health care, according to the poll. More than three-quarters of voters, 78 percent, say health care will be very important to their vote — followed by the economy and jobs (73 percent), Social Security (72 percent), Medicare (68 percent) and national security (66 percent).

Rating lower on voters’ list of priorities: taxes (61 percent), drug prices (59 percent), guns (51 percent), immigration (48 percent) and trade (40 percent).

Health care is still the top issue for voters 50 and older: More than 4 in 5, 81 percent, say it’s very important to their vote. That’s followed by Social Security (80 percent) and Medicare (76 percent).

Part of Trump’s election pitch in Ohio — and throughout the Upper Midwest, where manufacturing has suffered this century — was his skepticism toward free trade. But according to the POLITICO/AARP poll, most voters, 61 percent, say they generally believe international trade is good for the country. Only 22 percent say they think trade is generally bad for the country.

Reflecting a more traditional political dynamic, the percentage of Republican voters who say trade is generally good for the U.S. economy, 69 percent, is greater than the percentage of Democrats, 58 percent.

And for all of Trump’s railing against NAFTA — the mid-1990s-era free-trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico — twice as many voters have a favorable opinion of the trade deal, 52 percent, than view it unfavorably, 26 percent. (Of the voters who said they had heard of NAFTA, 41 percent said it has had a mostly positive impact on the U.S., compared with 23 percent who said it has had a mostly negative impact.)

Ohio has been particularly ravaged by the opioid crisis — the state ranks third in opioid-related overdose deaths per capita — and more than 7 in 10 voters, 71 percent, say opioid addiction is a very serious problem in the state. Asked who’s mostly to blame for opioid addiction, 26 percent say drug dealers, 21 percent say doctors and 19 percent say drug companies.

But while only 7 percent of voters say government is mostly to blame, a majority, 62 percent, say the government isn’t doing enough to address opioid addiction in Ohio. With the GOP in charge at both the federal and state levels, Democratic voters in Ohio (68 percent) are more likely to say government isn’t doing enough than Republicans (56 percent).

The POLITICO/AARP poll was conducted September 2-11, surveying 1,592 registered voters in Ohio (toplines, crosstabs), including an oversample of 841 voters 50 and older (toplines, crosstabs). Interviews were conducted online by Morning Consult. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points for the overall sample, plus or minus 3 percentage points for the oversample of older voters.