Nat Newell | IndyStar

Matt Kryger/IndyStar

It's not an exaggeration to call the Indianapolis Colts' 24-21 victory Sunday a season saver. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the Colts now have a 28 percent chance to make the playoffs. A loss would have dropped them to 3 percent.

Kansas City's overtime victory against Baltimore was also huge as the Ravens, Colts, Dolphins and Titans are now tied at 7-6. New England, Pittsburgh and Kansas City lead the other divisions, with the Los Angeles Chargers holding down one wild card at 10-3.

Here's a look at what needs to happen the rest of the season for the Colts to make the playoffs:

To win the division

(Is now a good time to mention how much better off the Colts would have been if they had taken the tie in their first game against the Texans? Indianapolis would be a half-game ahead for the wild card, and one game back of Houston with the tiebreaker.)

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>> If the Colts win out to finish 10-6: They own all tiebreakers on Houston. If the Texans lose their final three games (at New York Jets, at Philadelphia, Jacksonville) the Colts would win the title outright. If the teams tie at 10-6, the Colts win the division tiebreaker if Houston loses to Jacksonville or the common games tiebreaker due to losses to the Jets and Eagles.

At 9-7, Tennessee becomes a factor, so let's break this down to the two possible scenarios, both requiring Houston to lose out.

>> Colts and Texans finish 9-7: Colts, again, own the tiebreakers. If they lose to an 8-8 Tennessee team, they win the common games tiebreaker. If they beat Tennessee, they win the division tiebreaker.

>> Colts, Titans and Texans finish 9-7: If the Colts beat the Titans, they win the head-to-head tiebreaker (3-1 vs. 2-2 vs. 1-3). If the Colts lose to the Titans, the Titans are the division champs due to a 4-2 division record with the Colts and Titans 3-3.

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Photos: Colts take down Texans 24-21 in Houston

To win the wild card

Baltimore's loss Sunday made this significantly messier since we still have wild card possibilities ranging from 8-8 to 10-6. Denver (6-7), Cleveland (5-7-1) and Cincinnati (5-8) are still mathematically in the wild card race. Baltimore could also pass Pittsburgh in the AFC North. But I'm sticking to Baltimore, Miami, Indianapolis and Tennessee at 7-6 for now.

The division tiebreakers determine whether the Colts or Titans advance to the wild card tiebreakers, so let's start there:

>> Colts and Titans finish 8-8 or 9-7: This would come down to the season finale. Colts win, they have the head-to-head tiebreaker; Titans win, they have the division tiebreaker.

From here, we're only considering possibilities with the Colts.

>> Head-to-head: The only scenario where this applies is if the Colts and Miami (advantage: Colts) tie with no other teams involved.

>> Conference record: Miami (remaining conference games are Jacksonville and Buffalo) and Baltimore (Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland) have the edge at 6-4 over Indianapolis (6-5; Tennessee).

One thing should be clear at this point: The Colts' need to win out. Even then they can't catch Baltimore (which also has a non-conference game vs. Tampa Bay) if it wins out. If Miami and Baltimore both win out, the Colts lose this tiebreaker as well.

If the Colts manage to advance past conference record, it goes to common games (minimum of four opponents). Here are the scenarios involving the Colts:

>> Colts and Baltimore: Baltimore leads the tiebreaker at 4-1 vs. 3-1, but a Colts’ victory over Tennessee ties it.

>> Colts, Baltimore and Miami: Baltimore leads at 4-1 but a Colts’ victory over Tennessee ties it. Miami is eliminated due to a 3-1 record.