Mesoscale Discussion 0574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 Areas affected...Central and eastern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122249Z - 130045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe weather is possible with thunderstorms developing over portions of central and eastern Wyoming. Limited instability and the lack of stronger forcing will likely mitigate the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Afternoon water vapor imagery shows lift from a shortwave trough embedded within 50 to 60 kt of southwesterly flow overspreading portions of Wyoming. 22z surface analysis shows a 1001 mb low over southwestern Wyoming, drawing a plume of low to middle 40s F dewpoints northward across the eastern 3rd of the state. A few storms have developed near the Bighorn Mountains and northeastern Wyoming, near a narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of vertical shear. Evolution of theses storms is uncertain given the weak instability and lack of a stronger forcing mechanism. Nevertheless, it seems possible that isolated severe weather could develop from any multi cell or weak supercell structures that are able to organize before moving east of the narrow instability axis. The main threats would be isolated severe hail and damaging winds, but the limited coverage and lack of a greater severe threat suggests a weather watch is not needed at this time. ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/12/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43850894 44100866 44360826 44610754 44740600 44640575 44300521 44090483 43790452 43450421 42680415 42200418 41930429 41600441 41700490 41900548 42070554 42440602 42380664 42420751 42490856 42550892 43230904 43850894