SAGE scientists have prepared ‘worst-case scenario’ predictions as the weather gets colder (Picture: AFP)

A leaked government report suggests a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ of 85,000 coronavirus deaths across the UK this winter.

The document, seen by BBC Newsnight, says restrictions could be re-introduced, although schools are likely to remain open.

The report was prepared for the government by the SAGE advisory group in order to help the NHS as the weather gets colder.

It is written based on predictions that government tracing, isolation, and quarantine methods will only prove to be 40% effective in controlling the spread of the virus in public.


Policy measures will be put in place to reduce non-household contacts to half of their normal pre-March 2020 levels by November, the report claims. These measures could be kept in place until March 2021.



Predictions of fatalities are based on ONS data and designed to account for those who are expected to die due to other illnesses.

In England and Wales, there could be 81,000 Covid-19 deaths, with an additional 27,000 excess deaths unrelated to the virus.

Of those hospitalised, 23.3% could die says leaked report (Picture: AP)

Scotland could see 2,600 people lose their lives, while 1,900 deaths could be expected in a worst-case scenario in Northern Ireland.

These numbers represent a significant increase in fatalities when compared to the first Covid-19 wave, which so far has claimed 41,498 lives.

The model also predicts the number of people who may need hospital treatment. While figures are uncertain, it suggests around 2.4% of infected people could be hospitalised, with 20.5% of these patients going into the ICU, and 23.3% of all hospitalised patients dying.

The model predicts an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.7% (0.0% – 9.7%).

SAGE advisory group authors stress these numbers are seen as a worst-case scenario – not a prediction for the winter months.

There is ‘a wide range of uncertainty’ about the actual outcome, they say.

A UK government spokesperson has commented on the leaked reports, saying: ‘As a responsible government we have been planning and continue to prepare for a wide range of scenarios, including the reasonable worst-case scenario.

‘Our planning is not a forecast or prediction of what will happen. It reflects a responsible government ensuring we are ready for all eventualities.’

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