Is it rational to vote?

We realize the audio quality when we have live guests is terrible, we’re working to fix that now, hopefully things will start sounding better very soon. Thanks for bearing with us!

Eneasz wants to say that his understanding of Timeless Decision Theory is likely flawed, because it is big and complicated and he is small and simple. His interpretation of it in this episode is not necessarily entirely correct, it is merely his best understanding. He is, as always, open to correction.

Mentioned in this episode:

Mail-in vote can decrease turn-out (includes an alternative explanation as well)

Andrew Gelman on the probability of your particular vote making a difference (pdf!)

Following-up – Andrew Gelman on why you should maybe vote anyway

Caprini’s What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters

Peter Singer’s Why Vote?, defending compulsory voting

Wikipedia on Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

Wittman’s The Myth of Democratic Failure: Why Political Institutions Are Efficient, and Caplan’s reply – The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies

PredictWise, the prediction market!

Hanson’s “Futarchy,” where we would vote on values, but bet on beliefs

Wikipedia on Effective Number of Parties