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Marco Hernandez Pablo Robles Forget about carbon emissions and carbon neutrality – if permafrost continues to melt at current rates, it could be game over for humanity

What is permafrost? Permafrost is a layer of soil, rock or sediment that is frozen for more than two consecutive years. It is commonly found in snowy, high-altitude mountains. About a quarter of the entire northern hemisphere has permafrost, but it is especially prevalent in areas above the 50th parallel north

Permafrost seals highly compressed carbon and methane gases created from decomposed organic and vegetal remains. Greenhouse gases are released when this frozen layer thaws. In areas not overlain by ice, the surface freezes and thaws annually and is called the “active layer”







Autumn

The ground is frozen beneath the active layer where grass grows

Winter

As temperatures vary the permafrost expands and contracts, cracking the top layer

Spring / Summer

The cracks allow warm water to permeate the frozen ground. When the temperature increases enough, the permafrost begins to melt, releasing gases

THE FEEDBACK EFFECT

The feedback effect occurs when the soil defrosts and releases large amounts of the flammable gas methane, accelerating the warming of the close environment. As the process multiplies, the cycle accelerates exponentially across large reserves of permafrost in the northern hemisphere According to Nature and the Harvard Review the amount of carbon sequestered in permafrost is four times that of the carbon already released into the atmosphere from modern human activity







WHERE THAT CARBON IS STORED

According to Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost the map below shows the locations of organic matter carbon

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The Tibetan Plateau If the northern hemisphere is the kingdom of permafrost, then the Tibetan Plateau is the arsenal. Covering some 1,300 million square metres of frozen ground, the Tibetan Plateau is the largest alpine permafrost region in the world

Extreme weather events occurring in other parts of the planet can affect the permafrost on the Tibetan plateau Global symptoms Data collection and metrics about changes to the climate have led to much debate about why the weather has become more extreme around the world

Anomalies Back in 2001 NASA researchers found a statistical correlation between a weak polar vortex and outbreaks of severe cold in the northern hemisphere. However, because the observations are short-term, having been recorded for just 13 years, there is considerable uncertainty over the conclusions Records clearly indicate a trend of temperatures rising. The graphic below shows deviations from the average monthly temperature in the Northern Hemisphere at the beginning of every decadeyear between 1880 and 2010. We also include the latest data from 2018

The immediate effects of these anomalies are visible in storms, heatwaves and the polar vortex occurring in opposite hemispheres. There are other warning signals such as how fast the ice under the ground is melting You may remember the story of the Aral Sea shrinking. Some theories pointed to tributary streams being cut off to irrigate crops as the culprit, but regardless, the reality remains – large parts of the sea simply disappeared











The opposite is happening on the Tibetan Plateau. New lakes are appearing, seemingly from out of nowhere. Existing lakes are growing bigger and bigger. Researchers link this to glaciers and permafrost melting Zhenquancuo lake Dogai Coring lake Xianhe lake

The huge impact in the Siling Co lake Fed by the rivers Boques Tsangpo and Za'gya Zangbo, this salt lake is one that shows one of the biggest increase in water levels in the last 30 years, according to studies conducted by the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, the lake has grown approximately 45 per cent since 1970









Jiangi Caka lake Xianhe lake

Rola Co lake The Rola Co is a large freshwater lake located in the district of Shuanghu, Nagqu province of China. It has grown to the point that it has merged with the neighbouring Danbing lake









