

Betdata.io

Even if Mrs May survives as Conservative leader until after Brexit we could still be less than 9 months away from a leadership contest that would choose not just the blue team’s flag carrier but, of course, the Prime Minister.

As can be seen from the chart which plots Betfair changes over the past month there is an incredible amount of movement with money going in and out of one candidate after another. I’ve long felt that the former favourite, Jacob Rees-Mogg, was going to have big difficulties at the first stage in the contest which is, of course, securing the backing of Conservative MPs and getting into the final two for the members’s ballot.

Javid is a very new face and is already making an impact as Home Secretary, the Department, of course, that used to be run by his boss Theresa May.

Boris, of course, is always going to be there but after what happened years ago I’m less convinced of his chances.

Maybe the future Conservative leader who will take the party into the next general election is somebody who simply not on the radar at the moment? Maybe TMay hangs on until the next general election in 2022?

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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