Earlier this week, we launched a survey to ask you which countries deserve to make it through the Semi-Finals to earn a spot in the Grand Final of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest. Your votes came in loud and clear - and it’s time to spill the beans. Who are your picks?

Semi Final 1

Definitely: Estonia, Belgium, Russia, Belarus, Georgia, Albania

Dubious: Macedonia, Netherlands, Romania, Serbia, Armenia, Denmark

Don’t Bet On These Horses: Greece, Moldova, Hungary, Finland

It should come as no surprise that the biggest contender in the first semi-final is Estonia. 94.3% of voters think “Goodbye to yesterday” will make it through to the final.

With an 85.7% chance of passing for both Belgium and Russia, “Rhythm Inside” and “A Million Voices” get to share the second place. They’re followed closely by Belarus. Interestingly, “Time” had a perfect 100% score for a few days - meaning everyone thought it would pass - but that has since decreased to 82.9%.

Next in line are Georgia and Albania. With 75.7% of votes, “Warrior” could very realistically make it into the Grand Final. “I’m Alive” doesn’t have much to fear either, gaining the support of 72.9% of voters.

Things get a little less certain for the following countries. The best odds go to Macedonia, with a 65.7% chance for “Autumn Leaves”, and The Netherlands, slightly lower with 64.3% of the vote.

There’s a 60% chance “All Over Again” will bring Romania into the Grand Final, which is still marginally better than Serbia’s 58.6% odds for “Beauty Never Lies”. Although that’s still a majority, it means there’s a large chance they won’t pass either. Voters also couldn’t agree on Armenia’s odds - 57.1% for “Face the shadow” - and Denmark finds itself in a risky position as well, with just 55.7% of votes in support of “The way you are”.



There are only 4 entries in this semi whose chances are below 50%. You’ve placed Greece at 37.1%, while Moldova finishes just below that with 35.7% Hungary and Finland share the bottom spot, having only convinced 34.3% of voters that “Wars for nothing” and “Aina mun pitaa” are worth a spot in the Grand Final.



Semi Final 2

Certain: Sweden, Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, Ireland, Azerbaijan, Israel

Could Go Either Way: Latvia, Malta, Lithuania, Switzerland

Count Them Out: Poland, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Portugal, Montenegro, San Marino

The results for the second semi-final on the other hand, seem a lot more clear-cut. The favorites are obvious, but more importantly, the difference between the qualifiers and the non-qualifiers is a lot bigger, with your least favorite entry only getting a 12.9% chance.

Having won the national selection by a landslide, “Heroes” does the same in this poll. You’ve given Sweden a 97% chance of going through - that’s as close to 100 as we’re going to get, although Iceland also performs very well; 91.4% is not an unimpressive result for “Unbroken”.

Finishing off this Nordic trifecta is Norway, with 88.6% of voters convinced “Monster Like Me” should at least be heard a second time on Saturday. The same can be said about Slovenia, with 85.7% supporting “Here for you”. Voters are also in support of Irish ballad “Playing with numbers,” giving Ireland a 84.3% chance.

There are relatively strong odds for Azerbaijan, with a 74.3% chance of seeing “Hour of the wolf” again in the Grand Final. That’s a bit better than “Golden Boy”, which provides Israel with a 70% chance of making it out.

Technically, Latvia has a good chance as well, though 62.9% means it could go either way for “Love Injected”. The same can be said for Malta, as you’ve given the anthemic “Warrior” a 61.4% chance. It could be good enough for Lithuania as well, though 57% doesn’t quite put “This Time” in the Grand Final for sure. But most uncertain is Switzerland, with only 51.4% of the voters convinced that “Time to Shine” will actually manage to shine.

And now, for those who are truly unfortunate. With support for the top acts in the second semi-final much higher than in the first, it becomes relatively easy to see which acts the voters are pre-emptively counting out of the race. Poland could still easily come back, with 45.7% in support of “In the Name of Love”, but the Czech Republic doesn’t fare so well. With 38.6%, hope may have already died for “Hope Never Dies”. One thing Cyprus should have done was probably send a better entry, because voters give “One thing I should have done” a 30% chance. Still, it could be worse: both Portugal and Montenegro have to settle for a 24.3% chance - could the language barrier be a deciding factor here?

Unfortunately, there must always be someone at the bottom, and that dubious honor goes to San Marino. If voters are to believed, “Chain of Lights” isn’t good enough for a place in the final, and with just 12.9% of those votes, we’d be inclined to agree.



What do you think? Are your favorites at the top, or do you think your favorites deserve better odds? The Unofficial Semi-Final Survey is still open and you can still vote or amend your previous choices. Eurovision Division will of course return next week for another update!

