

Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.). (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) kicked off his briefing Wednesday by saying 2014 is not as bad as 2010 was for House Democrats. He concluded by saying things would get better in 2016.

And so the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman neatly summed up the bleak landscape he's facing less than three weeks from the midterm elections. By arguing that it could be worse, like last time, and it will get better the next time, Israel illustrated how forgettable 2014 has already become for the minority party in the House.

His Republican counterpart, Rep. Greg Walden (Ore.), is predicting the GOP could pad its 233-199 advantage and reach 245 seats. But Israel isn't dabbling in expectations-setting. At all.

"What's a great night for you? What's an okay night?" one reporter asked him.

"I know that I annoy you when I refuse to predict and prophesize," he responded, noting that there are 32 races where opposing candidates are within within six points of one another, according to internal polling.

Another try: "What would you say would be a disappointing night for Republicans?"

"Forgive me, but I don't know."

How about this: "What would be acceptable losses?"

"I'm not going to go there. I'm just not going to go there."

Part of the reason he's steering clear may be the fact that House Democrats know Nov. 4 will be a bad night -- but they still aren't sure just how bad it will be. President Obama just hit a new low approval rating -- 40 percent -- in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. The DCCC has had to abandon some of its top pickup opportunities in favor of reinforcing endangered incumbents. And despite outraising the national Republican Congressional Committee, Democrats have had to stretch their dollars as Republican outside groups swooped in to reinforce GOP candidates.

Without singling them out by name, Israel pressed Democratic super PACs, labor unions and other allies to ramp up their spending.

"In a world of Republican super PAC hurt, the pain can be ameliorated and even reversed when some of our outside allies decide that they're not going to leave a single race on the table and they come in and help fortify some of our candidates," he said.

With 20 days left to go, the DCCC is focused mainly on defense. The committee just pulled back on the airwaves in about a dozen districts where the GOP is now poised to hold seats. They have ramped up spending to rescue vulnerable Democratic like Reps. Brad Schneider (Ill.), Bill Enyart (Ill.), Rick Nolan (Minn.), Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.) and Ami Bera (Calif.).

"We're in trench warfare," said Israel.

Of the 17 races rated by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report as "toss ups," 12 are Democratic-held seats. Aside from those, Republicans have three surefire or very strong pickup opportunities while Democrats have just one.

Israel defended the DCCC's efforts to shore up endangered incumbents from the earliest days of the 2014 election cycle. The committee deployed field staff sooner than in past elections, he said, bought up air time early to take advantage of lower advertising rates and braced for an unfavorable national environment.

"We anticipated the worst from Day One," he said.

The worst may be about to arrive, even if things don't look as dire as they did for Democrats four years ago. One reason they don't is there simply aren't as many districts where Republicans can make gains, due to their own success.

Further complicating matters for House Democrats is the laser-focus in the political world right now on the Senate, where the majority is up for grabs. That's where the energy in the donor community is, and that's where outside groups have focused most of their efforts. Republicans need to pick up six seats to win control of the chamber.

The good news for House Democrats is that the next election will be a presidential year. That means higher turnout from the voters Democrats need and no unpopular president headed for two more years in the White House dragging them down.

"I really do believe that the Republicans are going to be facing strong headwinds in 2016," Israel said when asked about suburban Philadelphia swing districts.

The 2016 campaign begins Nov. 5. The way things are shaping up now, it couldn't possibly arrive too soon for House Democrats.