By all appearances, Gov. Phil Murphy and the Democratic legislative leaders are close to reaching a compromise on a bill that would legalize the sale of marijuana to adults for recreational use.

Yet Murphy, who as a candidate promised passage of a legal marijuana bill within his first 100 days, has been burned on this issue from the moment he took office. On Tuesday, he refused to ratchet up hopes that any compromise would quickly become law.

If Murphy was ready to pass the peace pipe in celebration with his legislative antagonists, he gave no sign of it during a bill-signing ceremony in Piscataway.

"This is complicated. We’re starting an entire industry from scratch,'' Murphy said when pressed about details of the new accord, which apparently ironed out thorny disagreements over taxing cannabis sales, supervising the program and expunging the records of minor marijuana offenders.

"We have said all along this is not a light lift. I’m optimistic, but we are machining it to get it over the goal line,'' Murphy said.

The governor has a right to be cautious.

Despite growing public support for legalization and the possibility of a breakthrough blessed by Senate President Stephen Sweeney, D-Gloucester, and Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin, D-Middlesex, there are still some fence-sitters and hard-and-fast foes of legalization within both houses of the Legislature.

If the outlines of a compromise agreement were put before the Senate this week, some State House observers say, Democrats would come up four votes short of the 21 needed for passage (assuming all 16 Republicans oppose the measure).

Some are not convinced that law enforcement is equipped to handle an increase in drivers impaired by marijuana. Others simply represent socially conservative, older suburbs that remain skeptical of such a swift cultural change.

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And Sen. Ronald Rice, D-Newark, fears that the Newark neighborhoods that he has represented for three decades and once patrolled as a police officer will bear the brunt of any unforeseen consequences. Rice believes marijuana is a gateway drug and fears that cannabis-infused candy products will fall into the hands of children.

Rice said Tuesday that talk of a possible compromise had not softened his opposition to legalization. He added that legalization would also undercut efforts to revitalize Newark.

"When you have communities ... starting to see the light, we are going to take them back in time,'' said Rice, who, despite his opposition to legalization, supports decriminalizing marijuana-related offenses.

Another reason for Murphy's caution is the fall election. All 80 seats in the Assembly will be up for grabs this November.

Although there is little chance that the Democrats will lose their comfortable majority — they have 54 seats, or 13 more than the minimum needed to pass legislation — some lawmakers might be skittish about having to defend legalization in several competitive suburban districts. Pressure could build on Coughlin, who will oversee the Democratic re-election campaign, to postpone the vote until after ballots are cast in November.

Coughlin, who attended Tuesday's signing of legislation expanding the state's family leave program, signaled his intention to take a deliberate approach.

"This is a seismic shift in public policy,'' Coughlin said. "We want to make sure we get it right. We want to make sure we get a bill in place that people can support."

Despite the hesitancy and setbacks over the past year, legalization advocates have maintained a steady lobbying effort, arguing that it is inevitable and would correct a historical wrong. Minorities are arrested and convicted of marijuana-related offenses three times more than whites even though the rate of usage is roughly the same, according to an American Civil Liberties Union study.

Public support for legalization grows

Public support, meanwhile, continues to grow. A Monmouth University poll released earlier this week found that 62 percent supported legalization and 32 percent opposed it. That represents a slight uptick in support from last year, but a significant difference from five years ago, when the state was evenly divided over the issue.

The advocates' crusade also has inadvertently been helped by neighboring states that are now exploring or pursuing legalization. Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York announced plans last month to establish a legal marijuana industry within the next year. Further foot-dragging could leave New Jersey playing catch-up in the region instead of establishing an early market dominance.

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That has helped keep the negotiations moving despite the sour relations between Murphy and Sweeney. And those talks have produced significant breakthroughs.

The biggest change is a complete overhaul of the taxation system for marijuana. Instead of simply levying a sales tax on legal marijuana, the state would impose a flat rate of $42 per ounce of marijuana.

The tax rate will fluctuate along with the price of cannabis, getting higher as the price drops. For example, a $42 tax on a $300 ounce is essentially a 14 percent tax, but on a $200 ounce, it represents a 21 percent tax.

Murphy's increased control of the Cannabis Regulatory Commission is also critical. Murphy would still appoint three commissioners to the five-member board under the new deal, but he would do so without having to seek the advice and consent of the Sweeney-controlled Senate.

The remaining two members would still be recommended by the Senate president and Assembly speaker, as written in the most recent version of the legalization bill.

Despite the compromise, some holdouts may leverage their votes during the upcoming budget negotiations this spring. That could force Murphy, Sweeney and Coughlin to offer sweeteners to change their minds — nominations for judges, for instance, or funding for firehouses in their districts or expedited approvals of project permits sought by donors.

Some may already be softening their opposition.

At least one previous skeptic, Sen. Nicholas Sacco, D-North Bergen, is now open to the idea of legalization, a spokesman said Tuesday.

Sacco, who hasn't seen the details of the agreement, remains concerned about how much control municipalities will be able to exert over marijuana dispensaries, said the spokesman, Phil Swibinksi.

Email: stile@northjersey.com

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