BEST REALITY CHECK

Is this thing on?

Are the Canucks?

The Canucks are now on an 80 point pace for the season.

To get to 92, the Canucks need 48 points in their final 37 games.

They have to cook at a 106-point clip the rest of the way.

In other words, they just need to play like the Leafs for the next two months.

Godspeed.

That doesn’t seem like there’s going to be a playoff run, does it?

How many of the points will be attributed to Elias Pettersson by the end of the year?

If you weren’t sure before the answer was driven home spectacularly in Toronto in what was a helpless-feeling loss to a superpower.

It’s a lot.

Enough so, without their star 20-year-old carrying them, the Canucks played like they don’t have a soul, or the talent to keep their head out of the league’s bottom three.

There are reasons for it. Vancouver was playing its sixth game of a six-game road trip. Getting the Leafs last, and on a three-game-in-four-night run, comes off as cruel as cutting your friend’s blindfold off in the world of the movie Bird Box.

But this should also be a reality check. The Leafs are ridiculous. They are fast. They are deep. They are well coached. They don’t have a weakness aside from the right side of their defence.

They play a style Travis Green would love to pull from his group if he had the horses.

The Leafs don’t always play like they did today but when they do you can see the distance the Canucks still have to travel to become a regular 100-point team capable of winning a Stanley Cup and it’s immense.

How does Vancouver get there?

“It takes time to be honest,” Green said. “You look at what Toronto has done for the past four or five years and now they’re seeing the rewards of it.

“They don’t have one good player. They don’t have two good players. They have a lot of good players on their hockey team.

“They’ve done a good job with their drafting. They’ve been patient with their group.”

Remember this the next time Pettersson turns Parliament Hill into a pylon. Yes, it’s fun and promising. But no, it doesn’t mean the Canucks have accelerated their rebuild by years.

They haven’t.

They still need difference makers. They still need stars.

“(The Leafs) play quick,” Horvat said. “They don’t waste any time. They don’t go D-to-D and wait for their forwards to get open.

“As soon as they get it, it’s up on their forward’s stick and they have a lot of speed on the rush.

“They are really effective that way.”

BEST COMPLIMENT

What makes the Leafs so good?

BRANDON SUTTER: “Speed. They’re just quick.

“They play a pretty good system too. I don’t think we had any odd-man rushes, not one 3-on-2.

“They definitely close up pretty good. Their forwards just skate and skate.

“Obviously, a couple of guys are really creative and that makes it tough too.

“The young guys who are all 22 and 23 are hitting their prime.

“They are a pretty special team.”

They are that.

BEST PLAYER

This game is a great thought starter because everyone should be asking how the Canucks get from where they are now to Toronto’s NHL superpower status.

It’s going to take a lot more good players, as Green suggested.

Dare I suggest, an army?

They’ll need to find a great player in the first round of the 2019 draft, and probably another in 2020. They’ll need to convince a game-changing free agent, to sign and they’ll need a difference-making trade.

With the trade deadline tumbling toward us, the Canucks need to be thinking about which veteran they can leverage to bring in a potential difference maker.

And by difference maker, I mean a first-round draft pick or equivalent prospect. Not another Goldy.

They have three vets who could command that kind of return if the market conditions are just right: Sutter, Chris Tanev and Alex Edler.

The Leafs have made offers for Tanev in the past and do need help on the right side of their defence, maybe the team’s only soft spot.

And Tanev just played his best game of the season. Until the game got out of hand, Tanev was the Canucks’ best player. The Canucks were controlling shot attempts at a 2-to-1 rate deep into the game when he was on the ice before the wheels fell off.

Tanev did it mostly with his skating which was better than it’s been in recent memory.

You can see what kind of difference he makes when he’s healthy.

He dusted Matthews on this play, and it led to a controlled zone entry after Tanev cut his way through the middle of the ice at speed.

He won puck battles.

He made slick defensive plays.

And he skated.

I have no clue if he can play like this for the next six weeks, but that’s what it’s going to take to get offers to anywhere near an acceptable level; they still aren’t.

That’s what would have to happen to get the TTC back together.

BEST RUMOUR

There’s lots of buzz the Leafs would be willing to move Liljegren and that buzz has been going on for more than a year.

Liljegren has been completely meh in the AHL so maybe the time is now.

Would you?

BEST CASE

This is a statement game for Pettersson’s Hart Trophy campaign @botchford — Patrick (@DudeAb1ded) January 6, 2019

If you don’t think the Elias Pettersson Hart Trophy talk has merit, this could go some way in changing your mind.

There is one what-if you’re going to have to wrap your head around to get started.

What if the Canucks made the playoffs?

And ya, it would take a miracle, but this following model indicates only one other forward in the league has more of an impact on his team, so when you’re really breaking down who has been most valuable it’s hard not to pick Pettersson (who is well ahead of McDavid for the record).

Here are the top 20ish forwards by @EvolvingWild's GAR data (via https://t.co/B27gbx44tS). Pettersson's been, uh, good.

Marner's not an all star 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♀️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♀️ pic.twitter.com/qNwa4FYIYS — Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) January 4, 2019

JD: “Something to consider with that model — it’s a descriptive model.

“It’s not about whether a player is playing sustainably good hockey. It’s how much value has this player added to his lineup in the form of wins.

“So it’s actually a fantastic gauge for something like Hart voting. “Basically, they’re looking at what’s happened with Player X on the ice, and trying to determine how much of that should be accredited to Player X and then how many goals they’re adding to their lineup compared to a replacement level player. “It takes into account things like points, penalties taken and drawn, and on-ice shots adjusted by deployment. “The model doesn’t care if you’re shooting 30 per cent. “It’s just trying to describe how much value that the points a player has scored, along with their defensive and penalty impacts, to determine how many wins they’ve added compared to a replacement level player.” BEST IMAGINE

“Imagine a team people perceived as analytics-based rolled into Toronto tonight and they were not able to defend for shit in the fifth year of their management’s reign.

“Can you imagine what Shannon and Simmons would be tweeting tonight?”

I can. I can.

“Instead, somehow, an 80-point team is ‘right in the playoff hunt’ and it’s ‘time to make trades to sell tickets’ and they’ll be ‘ready for the playoffs’ next year.

“lol.”

What a world.

BEST TRADE UPDATE

So, speaking of the Computer Boys, I’m not sure if you heard but Gudbranson was not good in Toronto.

It was bad. As bad as it’s ever been, and by now we’ve seen some pretty poor Guddy performances.

This one is hard to ignore, and we’ve ignored plenty here this season.

And it wasn’t just the five goals against he was on the ice for.

He got lit up by Marleau.

He turned the puck over with this, uh, clearing attempt.

He got worked by Tavares.

I know he is a polarizing defenceman and by polarizing I mean half of Vancouver thinks he’s awful and the other half thinks he’s OK on the third pair.

The numbers support one side and I’ll let you figure out which one.

Since he came to the Canucks, Guddy has been on the ice for 55 goals for and 94 against at 5-on-5.

It’s the worst goals-for percentage in the NHL and it’s not remotely close.

He has the worst scoring chance share and second worst shot share ahead of only Ceci too.

This doesn’t seem good.

Is this good?

BEST UPDATE

#Canucks Green with a vigorous and prepared defense of Loui Eriksson: pic.twitter.com/PDucp4pe4G — Jeff Paterson (@patersonjeff) October 20, 2018

Where do things stand now?

What follows is Green’s defence of Eriksson in October and a January update.

GREEN: “Loui is second on our team in 5-on-5 points.”

He’s now seventh.

GREEN: “He’s second in plus/minus.”

He’s now 25th.

“It’s seven games into the season not 50”

It’s now 45.

We’ll re-visit at 50.

BEST SHOT/CHASER

SHOT:

Looking forward to Saturday when don cherry blames Pettersson for getting hurt. That should be fun. — Shane🏳️‍🌈 (@SocialAssassin2) January 4, 2019

CHASER:

Don Cherry and Ron MacLean have both blamed Elias Pettersson for his leg injury, saying he was "looking for trouble". This network needs to be hit by a meteor. — Kolby Solinsky (@KolbySolinsky) January 6, 2019

BEST EXPLANATIONS

BEST RESPONSES

An MRI was done on EP, what did it find? — Jason Botchford (@botchford) January 6, 2019

BEST TML TALK

Hey @Sportsnet I can only find the Canucks game on @CBC The announcers seem to be the Canucks broadcasters and seem to think the Canuck have won the last 50 Stanley Cups and all their players are better then Gretzky in his prime. #unwatchable #TMLtalk — Stuart Pollock (@Moviestu) January 6, 2019

BEST GIF

BEST OH SNAP

BEST REVELATION

It absolutely killed Pettersson he couldn’t play tonight.

ROUSSEL: “He wants to be the best. He told me he really, really wanted to play this game.

“He said ‘I would love to compare myself with that team and see where I’m at.’

“It’s great to have that kind of mentality at his age. He couldn’t wait to match up against Matthews and Kadri.

“It’s with guys like that, guys that can’t wait to play players like that, who you win with.”

BIGGEST WTF

Just say no.

BEST ATHLETTIES SWAG

BEST HAT TIP

So I gotta give credit where credit is due and @botchford Ive followed you pretty close over the last year and have loved your content. You have been right about so many things and have worked so hard over the last year congrats, heres to a great 2019 to you. #HATTIP — Darnell Hatt (@Darnell_Hatt) January 5, 2019

BEST EXCHANGE

BOESER: “I see how Elias gives you guys (the media) sarcasm, but he’s a sarcastic kid. He is also super nice and he’s really humble.”

THE ATHLETTIES: Ya, well, it can feel like we’re standing on a glass floor when interviewing him and he can choose to throw a hammer through it at any time to send us spiralling to our death.

BOESER: “Oh, I know it, I know you’re feeling that way.” (laughing).

BEST HANDWRITING ANALYSIS

BIGGEST CONUNDRUM CONTINUED

The Alex Edler business is about to pick up.

What would you do with the Canucks all-time leader in points by a defenceman?

It’s a question which has only got further complicated because of how well he plays and he has been playing well enough to be the Canucks clearcut No. 1 blueliner.

This is especially important if the team is trying to remain competitive this season to set up next year when some seem to think the Canucks should be in position to make the playoffs.

Among those who seem to think that are the Canucks, which makes extending Edler a no-brainer.

But is this really the right lane to go down? Should the Canucks be thinking at all about playoffs?

BOY GENIUS: “Really, if you look at a team like New Jersey last year or Colorado a few years ago, there’s no point in barely squeaking into the playoffs and getting your ass handed to you in the first round.

“The goal should be bigger picture Stanley Cup contention and the assets you get back by trading Edler could definitely help you get closer to that.”

If Edler keeps up what has been a 50-point, 82-game pace, the potential is there for a huge payoff at the trade deadline.

Why is that important?

Because this: More than ever the NHL is a star-driven league and the pieces around those stars are increasingly replaceable parts.

Look at how one like Pettersson has changed the entire outlook of the Canucks.

Where do you get stars?

One place is the NHL’s first round.

People often point out that the Canucks drafted Boeser in a year they made the playoffs. True.

If the Canucks could trade Edler for a first-round pick and have another shot at a Boeser-like talent, are they really in a position to say no?

If it means doing that and trying to re-sign Edler in the summer, don’t the Canucks have to take that risk?

Yes, they could miss Edler in the summer and yes that could mean they’d be further out of next year’s playoff race.

But he’s 32. His time as a peak player is ticking down. He’s not a long-term solution. With Hughes, they don’t need him on the power play so his role is diminished either way.

True, the Canucks aren’t likely going to find a first pairing left-side defenceman to replace him.

Some of us could live with that.

Should the Canucks?

BEST QUOTES

We caught up with Edler to talk contract.

THE ATHLETTIES: How close is it?

EDLER: “I’m trying not to think too much about it. I’m playing every game as well as I can. I’ve been treated well here in Vancouver. I’ve been here my whole career. That’s where I’m at.”

THE ATHLETTIES: Some are expecting a three-year extension, is that in the ballpark of what you want?

EDLER: “I don’t know. I don’t know.”

THE ATHLETTIES: A longer deal could be your last one. Do you want to retire a Canuck?

EDLER: “Yes. I’ve always liked it here. I think if that’s what can happen then absolutely. But I need them to want me to be a part of the future.

“I don’t think any player wants to be in an organization that doesn’t see you as part of their plan.

“Hopefully … Right now, I’m just focused on my season.”

BEST EL-OH-EL

If you recall The Athletties re-telling of Pettersson’s “Google it” moment in Ottawa after his hat trick, you remember how incredulous the Ottawa media was when the 20-year-old explained he once dreamed of playing in Vancouver as a child.

Imagine being unable to comprehend why in 2003, give or take a year, a young Swedish kid would want to play in Vancouver. Markus Naslund was having his greatest seasons, the Sedins were the next big thing and this particular Canucks hockey team was among the most fun to watch in the entire NHL and one that had legitimate potential to be great.

Is it so ridiculous to suggest Vancouver was a hot team then for young Swedes to aspire to play for?

Apparently so.

Even after Pettersson told the scrum to use Google as its friend, media still couldn’t seem to believe him.

So, it turns out, they actually really did Google it.

El-Oh-El.

You really think everyone wants to play for Toronto?

Oh, Roy.

BEST STORY

Way back in time, let’s call the era Vancouver BP for Before Petey, the Canucks managers and scouts engaged in prolonged, exceptionally intense debates about who they would draft leading up to the pivotal decision in 2017.

By then, Thomas Gradin was already telling people he believed Pettersson could lead Sweden’s elite league in points as a teenager.

He also made a case, after the draft, Pettersson should go straight to the Canucks to play with the Sedins in their final season. Given the way EP has performed in his first three months this season, it’s pretty obvious Gradin was absolutely right about his readiness a year ago.

Gradin also told Pettersson not long after his Swedish career in the ended in the spring that he’d play centre in the NHL.

And before this season started, Gradin was asked if Pettersson was strong enough to play against the biggest and best hockey players in the world every single night.

“No,” Gradin said, waiting a beat which he often does to ensure his next point is made emphatically.

“But he’s good enough and that’s what matters.”

Gradin was right again, twice.

Pettersson is not weak or frail or small. The wild exaggerations about his lack of size have become a running joke for those in Vancouver.

Boeser put it this way when asked about EP in Toronto on Saturday:

“There’s not a lot of beef on him but he’s a strong kid. He’s stronger than a lot of you think he is.”

But he is going to get stronger. And he needs to. Don’t take this as a negative because it’s not. It’s actually one of the most encouraging signs of Pettersson’s season because it means he has a lot of room for growth.

He is going to get stronger and when he does it will make him even more dangerous.

Despite all of his brilliant, barnstorming success this year, Pettersson is playing catch-up.

He didn’t have the same advantages many players he’s being compared to have had, especially those in Ontario where the minor hockey machine is on a different level than anywhere else in the world.

Consider this, Mitch Marner’s parents had him working regularly with a top skills coach by the time he was just 4 years old.

Then there’s Auston Matthews. When he was around 9 his family moved a world travelling hockey development coach to Arizona where he lived with Matthews’ grandparents for years and became Auston’s personal coach and trainer.

Matthews is now a 223-pound beast after benefitting from years of elite strength and conditioning training.

Pettersson just didn’t have this kind of access, which he obviously has right now.

It means he is scratching the surface when it comes to gaining an athletic performance edge.

This story is not unfamiliar in Vancouver. Look where the Sedins were when they arrived in North America. Think about how far behind they were in training and how hard they had to work to reach peak physical shape. Also remember what happened when they did. Their games exploded.

It was the same for Alex Edler.

Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston was in the Hockey Hall of Fame today and snapped this shot of Edler starting out in the AHL three years after being drafted.

Is it that crazy to suggest this is one of the issues which can help explain why the Capitals didn’t understand what they had in Filip Forsberg?

Pettersson’s story is so different from his North American peers, his development curve more old school, simple and natural than many of those around him.

Pettersson grew up in a small, rural Swedish town nearly a five-hour drive north of Stockholm. His one big advantage was that he lived beside an ice rink. His other was that he had an older brother who was a gifted hockey player to help lead the way for him.

“He is incredible and he is our superstar,” one Canuck said.

“But he has to get stronger. He just has to.

“You guys want us to fight every time he gets hit and we can’t. It’s impossible.

“You saw how he was hit in Ottawa. There’s going to be more of that. How would a team play him if it was the playoffs?

“He does need to get stronger. And he will.

“I’d like to see him at 190 pounds.”

Pettersson’s elite talent is probably two years ahead of when he will be an elite conditioned athlete.

It probably takes Pettersson two summers to get to peak playing weight and strength.

He’ll still be killing it till then because he is incredible but what will he be capable of when he hits his physical stride?

That one sure makes the mind go wild.

(Top photo: Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)