RK PLAYER TM COMMENT

1 Max Scherzer WAS Brief neck injury couldn’t stop him from a 5th straight 200 IP yr; skills & firm health earn top spot, even at age-33

2 Clayton Kershaw LAD Fewer than 30 starts in 3 of the last 4 seasons bring him back to the pack, but he remains unquestionably elite

3 Chris Sale BOS Ks returned and fueled a brilliant debut w/BOS; 214 IP, 36% K, and 2.45 FIP were all MLB-bests

4 Corey Kluber CLE You probably already forgot he had a 5.06 ERA thru 6 starts; had 1.62 ERA in 166 IP post-back inj.

5 Noah Syndergaard NYM Limited to 30 IP, but finished on the mound with velo & stuff intact; 1st good ST start will boost his 38.2 ADP

6 Madison Bumgarner SFG Like Thor, his ADP will crawl back up toward 2017 level (15 for Bummy, 18 for Thor) once ST kicks off

7 Jacob deGrom NYM B2B duds (15 ER in 8 IP) 2 mos. into season essentially account for the entire 0.50 ERA jump; a true Cy candidate

8 Carlos Carrasco CLE Finally reached 200 IP and was the stud we’d been waiting for; must avoid duds for that elusive sub-3.00 season

9 Justin Verlander HOU Maybe leaving the ALC – specifically CLE – will avoid yearly “Is JV done?” worries (10.16 1H ERA v. CLE since ’16)

10 Zack Greinke ARI Rebounded from ugly ’16 w/a great effort; perhaps humidor could bring the HR/9 back under 1.0 (1.2 w/ARI)

11 Carlos Martinez STL Added 3 pts to his K% and 10 IP, but also 0.60 to his ERA because of 12 more HRs allowed; a bona fide fantasy ace

12 Stephen Strasburg WAS Need a 2nd top 25 SP w/Stras due to inj. risk, but fewer workhorses enhances his per-inning excellence.

13 Yu Darvish FA I don’t think he’s fundamentally different after 2 ugly WS starts… assuming he finds a team, of course

14 Luis Severino NYY Elite breakout season was fully supported by skills so even some BABIP/LOB% regression shouldn’t crush him

15 Masahiro Tanaka NYY Curbing his fastball usage spurred summer surge (3.54 ERA in L16 starts) & playoff domination (0.90 ERA in 20 IP)

16 Aaron Nola PHI Added velo, enhanced his changeup, and had a fantastic season; has 16th-best K-BB% since ’15 (min. 300 IP)

17 Chris Archer TBR B2B 4.00-ERA seasons, but 3 straight 200+ IP & 230+ K seasons keep him one of the most desirable arms

18 Robbie Ray ARI Shaved fastball usage (-12%) and breakers shone brightly (.526 OPS, 38% K w/CB & SL); can’t see 85% LOB repeat

19 Jose Quintana CHC Spiked K% w/only minor SwStr boost, but facing SPs will help maintain some gains; underrated fantasy ace

20 David Price BOS Skills and velo as SP and RP were still there amid elbow troubles; fears could be overplayed & create draft value

21 Gerrit Cole HOU Minute Maid more comparable to PNC than you’d think in terms of favoring Ps; ingredients of an ace are here

22 Dallas Keuchel HOU Neck injuries limited IP (146) and now we’re 2 yrs removed from a 200-IP season for the 30-yr old lefty

23 James Paxton SEA As the 200-IP SP becomes increasingly rare, his IP concerns wane some; was a top-20 SP in just 136 IP

24 Jeff Samardzija SFG Can give back some of the 20% K-BB in exchange for fewer HRs (1.3) and get back under 4.00; 5 straight 200-IP yrs

25 Johnny Cueto SFG Blisters tanked season & sent HR sky-high (1.3 was 2x ’16); if healed, he’ll be back; ADP is 5-7 cheaper than ’17

26 Jake Arrieta FA A high-end hot potato whose outlook is clouded further by remaining un-signed; not a bad gamble after pick 100

27 Jon Lester CHC CHC BABIPs regressed as expected and he paired it w/velo dip & HR boost en route to +1.89 ERA; still a workhorse

28 Luis Castillo CIN Season looks like Carrasco’s 91-IP as SP in ’14 w/rock solid skills; HRs a little high, but his ceiling is fantasy ace

29 Garrett Richards LAA You won’t have to pay a price commensurate w/this rank, but I’m assessing skills, not purely guessing draft order

30 Lance McCullers HOU G-Rich, McCullers, and even Ohtani who’s next are Paxton starter kits in terms of high end ~160 IP seasons

31 Shohei Ohtani LAA I keep getting him in the 90s, but ADP is 73 and will only rise w/promising spring starts; I’ll be priced out in March

32 Jose Berrios MIN Delivered on post-hype status in ’17, but the market is back in (ADP 107); I see another level so I’m still buying

33 Taijuan Walker ARI Did curb ’16 HR rate that was blamed on inj., next step is something like his 3.49 ERA, but with full skills support

34 Chase Anderson MIL I wrote a profile on him when he signed his extension; adding Cain & Yelich marries well w/his FB tendencies

35 Zack Godley ARI Had a top-30 yr in just 155 IP; plan for some regression unlleesss that sweet, sweet humidor comes through…

36 Michael Fulmer DET Returning from the same ulnar nerve surgery deGrom had so monitor his ST work, but he should be fine

37 Jon Gray COL A 4.32 career road ERA has been more of an issue than Coors espec. after a skills-supported 3.13 home ERA in ’17

38 Danny Salazar CLE Every bit as good as the #28-31 group, but splitting them is “health confidence” ranking & I’m more wary of his

39 Lance Lynn FA Skirted career-worst HRs (1.3) en route to strong season; I see HR dropping more than his 4.82 FIP coming true

40 Michael Wacha STL Career-high 6 Shellackings (5+ ER start) left his ERA 0.50 shy of FIP as 15% K-BB was 4-yr best; still just 26 yrs old

41 Kevin Gausman BAL Oh great, he reeled me back in with a 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over his L14 starts w/an 18% K-BB & 91 Ks in 87 IP

42 Marcus Stroman TOR Outran poor IF defense en route to 3.09 ERA despite a 1.31 WHIP; could be tough again w/4 31+ yr old IF’ers

43 Dylan Bundy BAL Fast start lacked skills (12% K-BB), bills came due in middle 1/3rd (11%), SL emergence buoyed last 1/3rd (21%)

44 Charlie Morton HOU A season-altering buy late in drafts (ADP 392) who delivered a 3.62 ERA/1.19 WHIP combo; price still fair at 171

45 Jordan Montgomery NYY Only finished 6 IP in 41% of GS, but the great pen afforded NYY that luxury; has skills for 180 IP gem; buy!

46 Jameson Taillon PIT The fact that he could easily slot ~20 spots higher shows depth of The Glob™; had 19% K-BB in F7 GS after cancer

47 Trevor Bauer CLE Yet another SP who cut FB usage to fuel success: 5.59 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 54% FB in F18; 2.60, 3.63, 42% in L13

48 Luke Weaver STL I consider myself a big fan, but the market has blown past me (ADP 112); 7+ Ks in 6/10 starts (30% K in 55 IP as SP)

49 Sonny Gray NYY OAK work (3.25 FIP, 16% K-BB, 0.7 HR/9) masked NYY struggles (4.87, 12%, 1.5) despite similar ERA (+0.29 in NYY)

50 Drew Pomeranz BOS While inj. concerns are fair, he is 1 of just 27 SPs w/B2B 170+ IP seasons; 1 of 7 to add a 24% K in each, too

51 Danny Duffy KCR 81% LOB from ’16 sank as expected, but so did the HRs; injuries returned yielding sub-150 IP again (>150 just 1x)

52 Rich Hill LAD In a vacuum, Hill & Wood aren’t unlike the #28-31 group of lower-IP studs, but Hill is the ultimate hot potato at age-39

53 Alex Wood LAD Saw velo & skills decline over the summer leaving him shy of that group in raw talent; I’ve always been nervous about him even when he’s running well

54 Kenta Maeda LAD Teammates grouped by design as they’re similarly skilled health risks whose ultimate value depends on IP count

55 Gio Gonzalez WAS Obv. not a true talent 2.96 ERA, but he doesn’t need to be w/this rk; can add a run in ERA and still be top 50-60

56 Kyle Hendricks CHC My pessimistic rk in ’17 was right for wrong reasons (IP, not ERA), but 3.88 FIP backs my concerns; I remain leary

57 Alex Cobb FA Never recaptured splitter, resulting in GB% dip; plan for the 17% K we’ve seen since TJ & hope 23% of ’13-14 returns

58 Blake Snell TBR Career 3.83 ERA despite a 1.45 WHIP speaks to quality stuff amid command issues; 3.28 ERA & 24% K in L15 GS

59 Sean Manaea OAK Mostly healthy, but a 3-start run of 17.55 ERA added 0.58 to bottom line (3.79 in other 26 GS); market has cooled

60 Ervin Santana MIN Ran scalding hot in F11 (1.75 ERA, 4.22 FIP), over-corrected in June (6.03, 5.87), then solid in L16 (3.51, 4.17)

61 J.A. Happ TOR Another strong effort (3.53 ERA, 15% K-BB), but inj. caused 4-yr low in IP (145) and age (35) will tamp down cost

62 Cole Hamels TEX Wheels falling off or an off yr tanked by a 2-mo. injury? More the latter IMO & he’s priced to buy at ADP 234

63 German Marquez COL A 1.7 HR/9 in Coors mitigated 17% K-BB as RHB clubbed fastball (1.016 OPS); room for growth here & v. cheap

64 Julio Teheran ATL Just 1 yr of Suntrust, but LHB utterly obliterated him (1% K-BB); solid streamer w/upside if hm woes are cured

65 Tanner Roark WAS Had 3.90 ERA and 86 Ks in 81 IP in 2H; he’s logged 180+ IP in 3 of the last 4 seasons, too

67 Jake Odorizzi TBR Too many HR and BB saw his ERA and FIP soar, but closed with a 3.47 ERA in his final 12 starts

68 Brad Peacock HOU No gtd spot, but 3 inj. risks and a 34-yr old in rotation will offer chances to carve out 110-130 IP w/~15 GS (+/- 5)

69 Dinelson Lamet SDP Needs something to get LHB out or volatility will remain; but swing-and-miss & RHB dominance lay a foundation

70 Patrick Corbin ARI Skills returned to ’13 level, but HR & BABIP kept the ERA higher; could be biggest humidor benefactor… if it exists

71 Rick Porcello BOS As hot as he ran in ’16, he was equally as cold in ’17; hard to peg for ’18, but I’d tab him for a low-4.00s ERA

72 Marco Estrada TOR Stress from personal issues kept him from proper sleep; figured it out in late-summer save 3 Shellackings

73 Joe Musgrove PIT New park should cut HRs (1.4 career) and better maximize the 15% K-BB we’ve seen so far; has K% upside, too

74 Aaron Sanchez TOR Blisters & broken fingernail destroyed season (4 DL stints); only had 12% K-BB in ’16 breakout despite great stuff

75 Mike Clevinger CLE Will struggle to consistently go 6+ IP if 12% BB doesn’t improve; cheap as he currently doesn’t have gtd spot

76 Tyler Chatwood CHC I see something like 140 innings of a 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 22% K rate. Useful, but not transformative

77 Chad Kuhl PIT Flamethrower rebounded w/3.38 ERA in L16, tallying 83 Ks in 88 IP; needs changeup refinement to truly breakout

78 Zach Davies MIL Wasn’t just a product of 17 Ws, but they masked an ugly 8% K-BB; still just 25 y/o & capable of another high-3.00s yr

79 Miles Mikolas STL Put up 19% K-BB in 3 NPB yrs w/’17 being the best (22%, 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP); Colby Lewis comps make sense

80 Sean Newcomb ATL Enough potential to facilitate a bigger jump, but the walk rate keeps expectations in check; fanned 24% in 100 IP

81 Chad Green NYY Being stretched out as SP, but he’s a viable pick even if he doesn’t start as he can deliver 90+ IP of quality work

82 Jhoulys Chacin MIL Skills suggest the nearly 5 runs of difference (1.79 home, 6.53 road) is a mirage; he’s a true talent 4.00 ERA guy

83 Luiz Gohara ATL Probably deserved a better fate against righties as a .418 BABIP overshadowed his 19% K-BB in 102 PA

84 Brent Honeywell TBR Tore through Double- and Triple-A last year with a 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 30% K, and 6% BB in 137 innings

85 Jack Flaherty STL Quality heat (93 mph) misses bats and induces GBs while CB & SL do most of the work generating his strikeouts

86 Lucas Giolito CWS Found some confidence in AAA and carried into a solid MLB sample, though that 1.6 HR/9 needs some work

87 Alex Reyes STL Returning from TJ and will start in the bullpen after returning in May; keep expectations in check for the 23 y/o

88 Mike Montgomery CHC Might be stuck in the swingman role again (14 GS, 30 RP app.), but he can make an impact w/120-140 IP

89 Steven Matz NYM Has some swing-and-miss stuff & good control, but he’s now 27 with just 235 MLB innings under his belt

90 Reynaldo Lopez CWS Big velo, two reliable secondaries, no platoon split, and pedigree could foster a breakout for this 24 yr old RHP

91 Dan Straily MIA Cautionary tale re: parks fixing HR issues; stayed at 1.5 from CIN to MIA, though a horrific road rate played a role

92 Matt Shoemaker LAA Forearm strain ate his entire second half, but there’s still nice upside here if he’s healthy coming into ’18

93 CC Sabathia NYY Crafty southpaw has posted 328.3 IP of 3.81 ERA and 12% K-BB over the last two seasons

94 Felix Hernandez SEA Shoulder bursitis ate up 3 months of his season and a flood of HRs offset his K and BB gains

95 Trevor Williams PIT Quietly had a sharp finish to his season with a 3.49 ERA in his last 98 innings and gets half his gms in PNC Park

96 Walker Buehler LAD Likely opens AAA to tighten up the control & refine changeup; if he gets a shot, he could be a game-changer

97 Jharel Cotton OAK Unquestionably rough season, but there’s still an arsenal for success here if he alters his approach

98 Robert Stephenson CIN Rich secondary arsenal (.510 OPS, 38% K rate in 219 PA) generates plenty of whiffs and keeps hope alive

99 Michael Kopech CWS No incentive for the White Sox to rush him & burn svc. time as they’re not slated to contend just yet

100 Luis Perdomo SDP Addition of Freddy Galvis could be huge as he should turn more of that 62% GB rate into outs

Nathan Eovaldi TBR INJURY RISK

Tyler Skaggs LAA INJURY RISK

Vince Velasquez PHI INJURY RISK

Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD INJURY RISK

Jerad Eickhoff PHI INJURY RISK

Carlos Rodon CWS INJURY RISK

Kendall Graveman OAK INJURY RISK

Anthony DeSclafani CIN INJURY RISK

Andrew Heaney LAA INJURY RISK

Brandon Finnegan CIN INJURY RISK

Jimmy Nelson MIL INJURY RISK

Eduardo Rodriguez BOS INJURY RISK

Shelby Miller ARI INJURY RISK

Nathan Karns KCR INJURY RISK

Matt Harvey NYM INJURY RISK

Andrew Triggs OAK INJURY RISK

Anibal Sanchez FA INJURY RISK

A.J. Puk OAK PROSPECT

Tyler Mahle CIN PROSPECT

Erick Fedde WAS PROSPECT

Brandon Woodruff MIL PROSPECT

Mitch Keller PIT PROSPECT

Forrest Whitley HOU PROSPECT

Justus Sheffield NYY PROSPECT

Chance Adams NYY PROSPECT

Mike Soroka ATL PROSPECT

Kolby Allard ATL PROSPECT

Sandy Alcantara MIA PROSPECT

Jeff Hoffman COL POST-HYPE

Tyler Glasnow PIT POST-HYPE

Jose De Leon TBR POST-HYPE

Luke Sims ATL POST-HYPE

Daniel Norris DET LOTTERY TICKET

Jose Urena MIA LOTTERY TICKET

Tyler Anderson COL LOTTERY TICKET

Jakob Junis KCR LOTTERY TICKET

Adalberto Mejia MIN LOTTERY TICKET

Parker Bridwell LAA LOTTERY TICKET

Chad Bettis COL LOTTERY TICKET

Amir Garrett CIN LOTTERY TICKET

Ty Blach SFG LOTTERY TICKET

Mike Foltynewicz ATL LATE BLOOMER

Matt Moore SFG LATE BLOOMER

Martin Perez TEX LATE BLOOMER

Adam Conley MIA LATE BLOOMER

Junior Guerra MIL LATE BLOOMER

Marco Gonzales SEA LATE BLOOMER

Matt Boyd DET LATE BLOOMER

Rafael Montero NYM LATE BLOOMER

Brian Johnson BOS LATE BLOOMER

Brent Suter MIL PER INNING

Erasmo Ramirez SEA PER INNING

Trevor Cahill KCR PER INNING

JC Ramirez LAA PER INNING

Joe Biagini TOR PER INNING

Ivan Nova PIT BORING VET

Mike Leake SEA BORING VET

Jason Vargas FA BORING VET

John Lackey FA BORING VET

Mike Fiers DET BORING VET

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA BORING VET

Doug Fister TEX BORING VET

Andrew Cashner FA BORING VET

Jordan Zimmerman DET BORING VET

Jason Hammel KCR BORING VET

Chris Stratton SFG BORING VET

Edinson Volquez MIA BORING VET

Jeremy Hellickson FA BORING VET

Nick Pivetta PHI RAW SKILLS

Jesse Hahn KCR RAW SKILLS

Francis Martes HOU RAW SKILLS

Daniel Mengden OAK RAW SKILLS

Jake Thompson PHI RAW SKILLS

Robert Gsellman NYM RAW SKILLS

Dillon Peters MIA RAW SKILLS

Luis Cessa NYY RAW SKILLS

Mark Leiter PHI RAW SKILLS

Sal Romano CIN RAW SKILLS

Buck Farmer DET RAW SKILLS

Brett Anderson FA DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY

Scott Feldman FA DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY

Michael Pineda MIN DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY

Drew Smyly CHC DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY

Steven Wright BOS DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY