MLB trade targets: Top 20 players who could move by the deadline

Bob Nightengale | USA TODAY

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Two shopping months remain before the non-waiver trading deadline, but with one-third of the teams already out of playoff contention, Major League Baseball is about to unleash its own Black Friday sale.

There’s no need to wait until July 31 with teams desperately wanting to unload high-priced talent for prospects or to simply to dump payroll, with nine franchises already down by at least 100,000 in attendance than a year ago.

It’s going to be a buyer’s market, and once the amateur draft is over, it could start a free-for-all.

The Baltimore Orioles should get three pitching prospects for prized shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, but likely only one among a team’s top 10.

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The Toronto Blue Jays, whose attendance has plummeted a major-league worst 320,854 from a year ago, and already are 11 games behind the Boston Red Sox in the AL East, will dump All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson and listen to virtually everyone but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. They’re hoping to move pitchers J.A. Happ, Tyler Clippard and John Axford, outfielder Curtis Granderson, and infielder Yangervis Solarte, too. If the price is right, they may listen on starters Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, too.

Yet, considering that Donaldson is earning $22 million, is a free agent after the year, and has struggled throwing the ball to first base, baseball executives predict the Blue Jays won’t get nearly what they envision.

In an informal survey, baseball executives predict that Manny Machado is going to be traded to either the Cleveland Indians, Philadelphia Phillies or the St. Louis Cardinals, but not the Chicago Cubs.

The two most aggressive teams will be the Seattle Mariners, who already acquired closer Alex Colome and outfielder Denard Span last weekend, and the St. Louis Cardinals, who haven’t missed the postseason three consecutive years since the turn of this century.

The two biggest surprise teams are expected to go different directions at the deadline. The Phillies will be active, willing to trade prospects, and pick up bloated contracts. The Atlanta Braves will ride the tide, knowing that the first two months have been peachy, but they’ll stay patient, and refuse to mortgage the future.

The two most passive big-market contenders, executives say, will be the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees. They not only plan to stay under the luxury tax, but won’t blow up their blueprint of trading prospects for rental players.

Oh, and for a friendly reminder how reluctant teams are to trade their prospects these days:

The two World Series teams from a year ago acquired ace pitchers only at the last minute. We’re taking about the Dodgers’ acquisition of Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers, only when the Rangers reluctantly agreed to drop their asking price in the last minute. And the Astros’ Aug. 31 heist of Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers after every team passed, and he cleared waivers.

All Verlander did was help the Astros win the World Series in October, anchor today’s finest rotation in baseball, and is the leading candidate to win his second Cy Young with a 7-2 record and 1.11 ERA..

So for those GMs deathly afraid of trading prospects, you may want to remember the Astros when you start your window-shopping.

Here’s a look at the top 20 players, based on their value and likelihood of being traded, on the block the next two months:

1. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles, shortstop: Machado, a free agent at the season’s conclusion, is on pace to hit 50 homers while playing spectacular defense at either shortstop or third base. The Cubs have been the long-rumored destination, and the Dodgers would love him to take Corey Seager’s spot for the rest of the season. The trouble is that unless Machado can suddenly pitch, the Cubs really don’t have a natural fit. And Dodgers vice president Andrew Friedman has yet to trade any blue chip prospects since his arrival to LA.

Prediction: Machado goes to the Phillies, who spent $169 million during the winter on free agents Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, and still have plenty of cash. The Phillies, who have five front office executives who are former Orioles’ employees, outbid the Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals, believing that not only can he help get them to the postseason this year, but it increases their odds of signing him when he hits free agency. The price tag won’t be nearly as high as wildly anticipated considering no one provided the Orioles with a strong offer in December, when teams would have had him for an entire season and not just two months.

2. Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays, third baseman: The Blue Jays don’t have any intention to re-sign him, not with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. around. The trouble is that his value has diminished from this winter with his throwing woes. Still, you’re talking about one of the most dangerous hitters and ultra-competitors in the game.

Prediction: The Cardinals love his bat, and even more, his attitude. The perfect fit now, and the perfect destination for the future.

3. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers, starting pitcher: The Rangers are not going to pick up his $20 million option in 2019, which includes a $6 million buyout, and would love to dump as much of his $23 million salary now. Hamels, a four-time All-Star and 2008 World Series MVP, is just 3-5 with a 3.74 ERA, but has a postseason pedigree that would be ideal for any contender, particularly in the National League.

Prediction: The Brewers may be on Hamels’ no-trade list, but for a chance to return to the playoffs, Hamels will waive it in a heartbeat.

4. Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals, closer: The best closer sure to be available and his stock is high, with 11 saves and no walks in 19 2/3 innings.

Prediction: Cleveland desperately needs bullpen help with struggling Andrew Miller back on the DL with knee inflammation. It’s time to strike again.

5. Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays, starting pitcher: The Rays certainly don’t have to trade Archer, their ace, and can patiently wait for someone to meet their price tag. Besides, they may want to wait until his performance improves, with a pedestrian 3-3 record and 4.58 ERA, yielding 1.3 hits and walks per inning. Yet, considering the dearth of starting pitching on the trade market, and that Archer is under contract through 2021 for just $24 million after this season, the time may be just right.

Prediction: The Cubs dropped $164 million in the free-agent market on Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood, only to watch Darvish go on the DL more times than games he’s won, and Chatwood to lead the league in walks. They finally bring the prodigal son home seven years after trading him away to Tampa in a package headlined by catching prospect Victor Caratini.

6. Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers, starting pitcher: Everyone is asking the Tigers for Michael Fulmer. Sorry, he’s the 25-year-old guy you want to build a rotation around, not trade away. The Tigers instead are telling teams that Liriano, 34, is readily available. He can certainly provide invaluable depth for a contender, going 3-2 with a 3.90 ERA.

Prediction: The Yankees are going to need another starter if they’re going to hang with the Boston Red Sox. Liriano is a perfect short-term, cheap fit.

7. Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles, closer: Britton, who had surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon in December, will begin a rehab assignment this week. He should be back in the big leagues in two weeks. And gone in two months.

Prediction: The Houston Astros have the greatest rotation on the planet, but after blowing a five-run, ninth-inning lead Sunday against the Cleveland Indians, were subtly reminded that they could use another big-time arm in the bullpen. Britton is their man.

8. Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals, third baseman: Moustakas shrugged off his cold winter market, following up on last year's franchise-best 38 homers with 11 more this year, along with 33 RBI.

Prediction: The Cleveland Indians can move All-Star Jose Ramirez to second base, or even use him or Moustakas as a DH. It would be the ideal, no-risk, high-reward deal that Cleveland has thrived on through the years.

9. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays, starting pitcher: Happ, 7-3 with a 3.84 ERA, striking out 79 batters in 65 2/3 innings, is pitching as well as he ever has in his 12-year career, burnishing his free agent credentials and developing into a strong trade chip for Toronto.

Prediction: The Mariners are desperate to end the longest postseason drought in baseball, and GM Jerry Dipoto is on the final year of his contract. A postseason return should assure he’ll be back, and Happ can certainly help the cause.

10. Brad Brach, Orioles, reliever: Brach is another free-agent reliever that has no future in Baltimore. He’s an ideal setup man who can also close, with 26 saves the past two seasons.

Prediction: The Los Angeles Angels could sure use some pitching help, and with the price tag exorbitant on the starting pitching, why not bolster the bullpen?

11. Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks, starting pitcher: The Diamondbacks had the finest record in the National League just three weeks ago, before suddenly losing 15 of their last 17 games, and becoming a .500 team. They will wait as long as possible before determining whether they will be sellers or buyers, but with Corbin a free agent, D'backs GM Mike Hazen could become a popular man in July.

Prediction: The Mariners are vowing to do everything possible to win now, and the Cubs and Yankees badly need a starter, too. The Mariners are the most desperate to land the prized lefty.

12. Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres, starting pitcher: His velocity is down, but the man is healthy -- 4-3, 3.13 ERA, and striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings. He’s the perfect short-term starter if you believe he can stay healthy.

Prediction: The Cubs see the value in the gamble.

13. Adam Jones, Orioles, center fielder: It was the trade that sent the Mariners spiraling, and in the 10 years since Jones and four others including pitcher Chris Tillman was traded to Baltimore, the Mariners still have not quite recovered. The Orioles love Jones, who has become the face of their franchise, but he’s a free agent in November.

Prediction: The Mariners, who lost All-Star second baseman Robinson Cano to a PED suspension and center fielder Dee Gordon to a broken toe, finally right a wrong and brings back Jones.

14. Matt Harvey, Cincinnati Reds, starting pitcher: His value has increased since his trade from the Mets, going 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA in his four starts . Certainly, the Reds will get back more than they gave up in catcher Devin Mesoraco.

Prediction: The San Francisco Giants showed interest in him before he was traded the first time, and could sure use a fifth starter to stay in the NL West race.

15. Jed Lowrie, Oakland A’s, second baseman: This is the type of player every contender values with his versatility and clubhouse leadership. He’s hitting .300 with an .867 OPS, and hitting in the middle of the A’s order.

Prediction: The Red Sox would love to move Lowrie all over the diamond and the Yankees have eyes on him too. A perfect piece for the tight AL East race.

16. Brad Hand, Padres, closer: The baseball world was stunned a year ago when the Padres didn’t trade their most coveted commodity. Well, one year later, Hand isn’t quite as electric, but he is under control through 2021, and earning just $3.5 million this year.

Prediction: The Padres still are expected to keep him, but if anyone can tempt them, it’s the Dodgers and their rich farm system. Hand has held lefty hitters to 1 hit in 30 at-bats.

17. Jonathan Lucroy, Oakland A’s, catcher:While the A’s may be in the race now, the likelihood of them sticking around by July are as slim as landing Bryce Harper next winter.

Prediction: The Brewers desperately have been looking for catching, so why not bring back their own homegrown catcher?

18. Scooter Gennett, Reds, second baseman: He’s hitting a league-leading .340 with 10 homers and 37 RBI, and is on pace for 201 hits. The trouble now is that he has become so invaluable that he may be unaffordable to the Reds, with his contract expected to perhaps double from his $5.7 million salary in his final year of arbitration. So do they move him now, with his value soaring, or hold onto him?

Prediction: It will take plenty of firepower to win the AL East, has patiently been waiting for second baseman Jason Kipnis to bounce back, hitting just .190 with a paltry .591 OPS, but Gennett could be the quick solution to plenty of their woes.

19. Starlin Castro, Miami Marlins, second baseman:Castro has been professional in his time in Marlins purgatory, hitting .285 with a .701 OPS, but he’d like out as much as the Marlins want him out.

Prediction: If the Marlins trade prized catcher J.T. Realmuto, they likely will ask teams to assume Castro and his contract, too. The Washington Nationals could be tempted if second baseman Daniel Murphy isn’t the same All-Star player upon his return.

20. Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox, outfielder: Sure, everyone wants first baseman Jose Abreu. He’s having another spectacular year with his .924 OPS, averaging 31 homers and 103 RBI in his career. Yet, the White Sox love his presence in the clubhouse, and fear the damage it would create by trading him. They instead are shopping Garcia, who is several weeks away from returning from his strained hamstring.

Prediction: Phillies. Hey, why not bring in an experienced outfield bat?

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