Polls from CNN and Quinnipiac represent disappointing news for president – but better outlook on ‘excellent’ or ‘good’ economy

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

Donald Trump’s approval rating has been remarkably consistent over the first 20 months of his presidency, moving between about 37% and 42%, according to polling averages maintained by FiveThirtyEight. That’s bad – likely about 10 points short of what he needs to be re-elected.

But new polls indicate Trump may currently be settling into an approval trough. A CNN/SSRS poll published Monday measured Trump’s approval rating at 36%, down from 42% in August in the same poll. A Quinnipiac poll measured Trump’s approval at 38%, down from 41% a month prior.

“I count... Eight... Count ‘em, eight, live interview polls finished in the last 2 weeks…” tweeted polling analyst Harry Enten of CNN. “Each one has Trump’s approval dropping from the last poll.”

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There are outlier polls that tell a different story, such as a new survey by Rasmussen Reports that measured Trump with a 48% approval rating. Rasmussen results tend towards Republicans, according to FiveThirtyEight analysis.

On the bright side for Trump, 70% of voters told Quinnipiac they think the nation’s economy is “excellent” or “good.”

Pollsters can be wrong: while national polls in the 2016 election exceeded historical standards for accuracy, there were some significant misses at the state level, and those misses continue to happen.

Even with the most recent bad polling numbers, Trump’s average approval rating sits at 40.0%, right in his sweet spot.

The two lowest dips in Trump’s approval so far came after his handling of racially motivated violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, and after the guilty plea of former national security adviser Michael Flynn.

There might be a correlation between guilty pleas by former Trump aides and slumps in the president’s popularity. Three weeks ago former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen and former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort respectively pleaded guilty to and were convicted of multiple fraud charges.

More recently, the Trump administration has been racked by insider reports of a White House in turmoil. A senior Trump appointee published an anonymous editorial in the New York Times last week saying that top administration officials are working around the president for the good of the country, and journalist Bob Woodward further documented that behavior in a new book, Fear.

“American voters believe those tales of intrigue coming from the Trump White House, but they think it’s wrong to tell those tales anonymously,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, in a press release.

A 55% majority of US voters think special counsel Robert Mueller is conducting a fair investigation, according to the Quinnipiac poll. Only 32% said they thought the president is honest.

The only other president to fall short of 50% approval so early in his presidency was Bill Clinton, who notched 44% approval in 1993 before winning re-election.



