In a head-to-head match-up, it will probably be close.

The so-called Republican establishment is in a tizzy about the possibility of Donald Trump being the party’s nominee for president, but in reality he is likely the best positioned candidate to defeat Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup.

Sure, the Real Clear Politics poll tracker has Clinton with more than a 10-point advantage right now – and that is up from just about a three-point spread at the beginning of March. Seems as though Clinton was the winner as more and more Republicans dropped out of the race last month. But if there is one certainty you can take away from this election season so far, it is that there are no certainties in this election.

Outrageous comments degrading women, minorities, the poor, people with disabilities and just about anyone else you can image have only served to boost Trump’s numbers through all the primaries so far. Ted Cruz is trying valiantly to mount a challenge. And John Kasich, for some reason, is staying in the race to play some sort of spoiler role. But at the end of the day, if it was anyone else who had amassed all the votes and all the primary wins that Trump has at this point in the campaign he (or she) would already have been anointed the party’s nominee, regardless of what the race for delegates was.

Trump knows that too, which is why a couple weeks back he said there would be riots at the GOP convention if he didn’t win the nomination. Then, this past week, he rescinded his pledge to support the eventual nominee if it was someone else. Donald, who has conducted his campaign like a schoolyard bully, apparently thinks he isn’t being treated “fairly,” whatever that means in politics, and is threatening to take his ball and go home.

The GOP should treat him better. Anyone who follows politics knows that candidates like to get their name and likeness in front of the public, especially in the months leading up to an election. It’s called building brand awareness. Politicians know that a vast majority of Americans pay little or no attention to politics or political candidates. So when they walk into the voting booth, they are likely to vote for the name of the first person that pops into their mind.

Trump was a household name long before he became a political candidate. He probably is best known for his trademark “You’re fired” phrase from his television series The Apprentice. No doubt about it, a lot of America know the name Trump.

Add to that the fact that Democrats are still in denial about the level of distrust many people have for their likely candidate, Hillary Clinton, and the fact that a lot of people just plain don’t like her. I have a sneaking suspicion that, just as Republicans denied how Mitt Romney’s catering to the elite rich and his flip-flopping on issues would turn off voters in the last presidential election, Democrats this time around might just get a rude awakening of their own.

Clinton and Trump started far apart in polling last July, according to the Real Clear Politics tracker. But over the months the spread got smaller. It has just been in recent weeks that Clinton has again broadened her lead. Look for that to change after the conventions though, especially if Trump turns out to be nominee. By November, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a close battle between the two and, when you throw in all the voters who cast their ballot on name recognition only, I think Trump is going to have an edge.

No other Republican likely would beat Clinton, who has some pretty good name recognition of her own. Things could change, of course, and nothing is predictable this presidential campaign, but Democrats would be wise to not underestimate Trump’s ability to generate votes.