WATERLOO REGION - Commuters drive to work just as often as they did 20 years ago, resisting a steady bus expansion and a pending rail transit launch meant to draw them from their cars.

The latest census data released Wednesday shows 80 per cent of Kitchener, Cambridge and Waterloo commuters drove a car, truck or van to work in 2016. That's unchanged since 1996.

"It is discouraging," said Mike Boos, spokesperson for the Tri-Cities Transport Action Group, a grassroots lobby that promotes walking, cycling and transit.

"It confirms the stance that I take, that we're not moving quickly enough to enable cycling, to promote transit and to shape our urban form.

"We're taking small steps now and getting small results. Very small results."

John Cicuttin, regional manager of transit development, doesn't see it as evidence that drivers will never abandon their cars. He cites passengers with briefcases and laptops that he sees at bus stops.

"It takes time," he said, arguing that commuting will be different two decades from now.

Transit has gained 8,155 new commuters over two decades, the census reveals. But driving has attracted 47,895 new commuters, leaving transit as the choice of seven per cent of local commuters.

People drive to work at the same rate despite Grand River Transit increasing service per resident by 62 per cent since 2002. Meanwhile, commuters over two decades have become less likely to walk, less likely to carpool, and no more likely to ride a bicycle, census data reveals.

Ridership is declining on Grand River Transit after peaking in 2013. By 2016 residents were 14 per cent less likely to ride transit than in 2013 even as taxpayers expanded buses by nine per cent over the same years, government data shows.

Advocates argue that street-level electric trains will draw more passengers and pull drivers from cars.

"We should be seeing that trend turn around," Boos said. "I think that trend is reversible and I'm pretty optimistic," Cicuttin said.

The delayed Ion system is expected to launch next spring in Kitchener and Waterloo.

To support their arguments, transit advocates cite new residences being built near rail transit stations, saying residents will be more likely to ride transit. They cite a young workforce that's friendlier to transit. They argue that governments could do more to discourage driving, for example by making parking more expensive.

Boos contends cycling can be made more attractive by improving networks and by separating bicycles from traffic. Just 2,600 residents rode bicycles to work in 2016, up from 1,830 in 1996. Cycling remains stalled at one per cent of commuters, unchanged over two decades.

"We are living in the legacy of 1970s cycling planning, that said that what we simply need to do is train cyclists to be as stoic as possible and tough it out on the roads, rather than carving out a space for them," Boos said. "The result has been that only the most determined and stoic are actually out there."

Grand River Transit expects ridership to stabilize this year below 20 million passengers, after peaking at 22 million in 2013. A growth target of 28 million passengers has been delayed two years to 2023, pending more expansion.

Ridership decline is attributed to factors such as fare hikes, bus routes disrupted by Ion construction, lower gas prices that make driving cheaper, more school buses that have siphoned away students, the arrival of ridesharing services such as Uber, and the expansion of campus-area housing university students can walk to.

"When you lose somebody from riding transit because they find it unreliable, it's very difficult to attract them back," Boos said, citing construction disruptions.

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Half of local transit passengers are students paying discounted fares. This makes the service highly sensitive to students. It helps explain the system's relatively low average fare ($1.58) and the relatively low share of costs (39 per cent) it recovers from passengers. No fare increase is planned in 2018.

Census data shows local transit commuters earn $26,053 on average. That's half the average earnings of a driver with passengers at $51,704. Drivers who are alone in their car, the bulk of commuters, earn $56,904 on average.

- Census 2016: school, work and commuting