Tory austerity and welfare cuts to blame for Brexit ‘leave’ votes, study finds Non-partisan think tank the Social Market Foundation suggests that rather than age or education, a person’s finances influenced their vote

Those still wondering why so many in struggling areas of the UK voted to leave the EU during the Brexit referendum – despite warnings over job security and the economy – may finally have the answer.

Newly published research by the Social Market Foundation (SMF) suggests that welfare cuts and other austerity measures implemented by the Conservative government during its time in office influenced swing voters to back Brexit.

The non-partisan think tank suggests that rather than age or education, as previously hypothesised, a person’s vote on the referendum was much more decided on how happy they felt with the state of their finances.

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Shifting allegiances

Unhappy people, the report suggests, tended to vote Leave, while those in a more comfortable situation swung towards Remain.

The SMF says it worked this out by analysing the extent of welfare cuts to each area of the UK alongside each area’s support for pro-Brexit parties like Ukip. It argues that if austerity measures hadn’t have been so severe, the UK may well have decided to remain in the EU.

Districts that felt the full force of austerity were 11.62 per cent more likely to vote for Ukip than districts less impacted by austerity.

The report also examined individual data, discovering that people heavily affected by cuts tended to reject the current government and shift their allegiances to Brexit.

A different outcome

“Households exposed to the bedroom tax increasingly shifted to support Ukip and experienced economic grievances as they fell behind with their rent payments due to the cuts,” the report read.

To conclude, it suggested that around 3million votes were decided due to concerns caused by welfare cuts, making up around 9 per cent of the 52 per cent who voted Leave. Without austerity, it claims, Remain would have had a comfortable victory.

“The swing voters who decided the referendum result were not diehard Eurosceptics. They were concerned about public goods and public services and feeling the impact of austerity policies,” Dr Thiemo Fetzer, the author of the report and an associate professor of economics from the University of Warwick, told the Independent.

“If it hadn’t been for austerity, more of those marginal voters would have voted the other way and the referendum wouldn’t have turned out the way it did.”

No-deal woes

The publishing of the report comes as fears worsen for the state of the UK economy and the jobs market as we inch ever closer to the 29 March without a deal in place.

‘Emergency plans’ to evacuate the Queen from London in the event of riots breaking out following a no-deal Brexit have been revealed, alongside growing concerns about civil unrest, food shortages, gridlocked transport routes and delays in medicine deliveries to hospitals.

Last week, it was revealed that the Armed Forces had begun stock-piling emergency supplies on British army bases around the world in preparation.