Under ordinary circumstances, Joe Biden would be riding high today. As Barack Obama's vice president, he would normally be the likely heir to Obama and the top choice for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016.

But Biden is facing a hard fact: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite for that nomination and few think Biden would have a chance of supplanting her if he got into the race. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey found that 76 percent of Democrats see Clinton favorably, a powerful hold on party loyalty that no other Democrat can match. And in Iowa, which holds the nation's first delegate-selection contest early next year, 60 percent of Democrats back Clinton. Sen. Bernie Sanders, a self-described socialist from Vermont, and former Gov. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, each of whom is seeking the Democratic nod, are far behind, as are potential candidates former Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland, former Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia, and Biden.



Party leaders and strategists consider Clinton so far ahead that there is little that Biden can do about it. He simply lacks the issues, the popularity, and the stomach for negative campaigning in sufficient measure to elbow her aside. And he is widely considered a politician from the past. Sixty percent of registered voters say they would not consider voting for him (or for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a Republican), according to a new George Washington University poll.

As a result, friends and allies say, Biden is biding his time, doing little to lay the groundwork for another presidential bid but believing he could jump into the race late and have a fighting chance. This is a very optimistic assessment, to put it mildly.

So far, the pro-Biden "movement" has been extremely modest. One recent blip was the endorsement of Biden by four Democratic state officials--three legislaors and a county auditor--in Iowa, which holds the first contest next year. The four, who supported Biden in his unsuccessful 2008 presidential bid, are now backing a strategy to draft him into the 2016 presidential race, but their support provides no evidence that he is expanding his base from the last time.

Will Pierce, executive director of "Draft Biden 2016," a political action committee, told reporters, "Joe is busy performing his duties as the vice president and has said publicly that he has time to make a decison. Building a base of strong support among Iowans and [in] other key early states for a Biden candidacy will allow the vice president to jump into the race with an infrastructure and organization already in place."



His allies argue that if Clinton stumbles badly, Biden could be well positioned to capture the nomination. He has been President Obama's loyal vice president for six-and-a-half years, is an acknowledged specialist in foreign affairs, and has many friends on Capitol Hill as former senator from Delaware.

But there are no signs of Clinton making a fatal mistake. And Biden has had trouble building a national following in the past. He has run for president twice and never caught on. Moreover, he is gaffe-prone and overly loquacious as a public figure. At age 72, Biden is vulnerable to the charge that he is not a leader of the future.

Biden is focusing on being vice president, giving Obama his private counsel, which the president says he values, and explaining administration policy on issues ranging from the economy and Middle East conflicts to civil rights for gays and lesbians. On Monday, he repeated Obama's argument that Congress should approve federal investments in the nation's bridges and highways to improve the infrastructure and create jobs. "We rank 28th in the world in terms of a modern infrastructure," Biden told a conference in Washington, saying it's time to turn this trend around.

He is scheduled to give a speech on law enforcement, a sensitive topic because of repeated confrontations between police and African Americans around the country, to police officers Tuesday evening.