In the rush over Goldman coverage and volcanic news, a very relevant piece of market update may have gotten lost, namely that Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index just peaked once again. Moody's reports that this index "measured a 2.6% price decline in commercial properties in February. This decrease comes on the heels of three consecutive months of rising prices, and brings the level of commercial property prices 41.8% below the peak measured in October 2007. Values are now down 25.8% from a year ago, and 41.6% from two years ago." This is the first time prices have fallen since October of last year: have we just hit price resistance in CRE?

The chart below shows the month over month change in prices.

A useful observation from Moody's: "The share of distressed sales in the repeat-sales transaction database has increased significantly over the last year. In early 2009, less than 20% of repeat-sales were identified as distressed. In February of this year, that proportion reached nearly one-third."

Moody's provides this explanation for why prices have plateaued: