Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC

Luke Rockhold's Big Chance

UFC on Fox 15 is what the deal between the two brands should be all about. The card is stacked from head to toe with quality fights and, most crucially, recognizable fighters. Moreover it is headlined by the brilliant match up between Lyoto Machida and Luke Rockhold, which is easily strong enough to headline a Pay-Per-View.

Machida and Rockhold are both vying for a shot at Chris Weidman's middleweight title, though Machida has been in with 'The Chris' once already in a fight that was considered one of the best of the year. Rockhold, after an embarrassing loss to Vitor Belfort where his nerves pretty much paralyzed him, has since rebounded and gone from strength to strength.

For Rockhold, this is his chance to prove himself. Machida, a former light heavyweight champion who just went the distance in a competitive fight with Chris Weidman, is easily one of the best fighters to ever grace the Octagon—convincingly beating him, combined with Rockhold's previous win over the surging Ronaldo 'Jacare' Souza, would assure Rockhold a title fight and do much to wipe the memory of his loss to Belfort.

In terms of style, Rockhold and Machida share some interesting similarities which might not be apparent. Obviously there is their shared love of the left round kick—though Machida's approach is more to wait for or create scenarios where the opponent's right elbow leaves their ribs for the instant that he is kicking, where Rockhold is more of the Thai school of thought, which believes kicking the arm is almost as good as kicking the body. A more interesting similarity is that both men have fencing-like footwork. They work largely on a line, excelling in the speed in-and-out footwork.

When Rockhold is at his best he is walking forward and bullying opponents. If they circle to his left, he hammers them with the left round kick. This is how he put Costa Phillipou down in their short bout.

If they circle to his right, he'll hit them with his favourite back kick, as was on full display against Jacare. If they try to charge him, he'll move straight back and hammer them with a counter right hook. It's simple, but that's Luke Rockhold in three techniques.



Skip back, land the hook as the opponent's punch falls short. An excellent counter and a favurite of Giorgio Petrosyan.

And this is where Rockhold's height and reach become such a factor. Moving backwards on a straight line is often discouraged, but when you have a gazelle like stride, you're pretty much okay. Nowhere was this more obvious than against Michael Bisping, who simply couldn't get close to Rockhold unless Rockhold decided he would allow it.

Machida, meanwhile, keeps a gulf of distance between himself and his opponent: a distance that forces what I often call 'the extra step'. An opponent knows that he will retreat as soon as they step in with a strike, so they'll take an extra step or two before launching their attack, or really lunge after him. As soon as Machida has an opponent committing to running through where he's standing, he can decide at any time to stop and throw a gyaku-zuki or reverse punch straight into their face. It's this method that has produced incredible results from a man thought to not be a terrific power puncher.

Machida's karate background has made him adept in bursting in or away over distance, and reach has never been too much of a factor for him because the distance that he fights from is so much greater than anyone's jab. More on that in Lyoto Machida and the Double Edged Sword of Competition Karate from earlier in the week.

Even against Jon Jones, Lyoto was able to impart his striking game with some success—he lost the bout, but at no point was he walking through strike after to strike just to try to close the distance, a la Glover Teixeira, Daniel Cormier, Rampage Jackson and Rashad Evans. And that is because the two ways to best a taller man have always been to either crowd him, or step back and force him to lead, then step in at the same time—achieving the same closing of the distance.

Most famously, Machida loves to step in on round kicks. Tournament karate 101, but also an excellent means for securing a knockout. As an opponent steps in to kick he has little control of his weight—he can't change his mind and retreat in an instant. Leon Edwards delivered a stunning knockout loss to Seth Baczynski the other night in exactly the same manner, and knockouts like this are a dime a dozen in kickboxing. Time the rear straight inside the round kick and you've got a good chance of hurting the opponent or at least knocking him over.



Sokoudjou telegraphs his kick by stepping, Machida intercepts with a sen-no-sen reverse punch, then follows with an ashi-barai / foot sweep.

This brings us to an interesting wrinkle in Luke Rockhold's game: the lead leg Brazilian kick / question mark kick. This was popularized by Glaube Feitosa who paired it with a brutal front kick to the body. Semmy Schilt had similar success chaining those two techniques. The weird thing is that Rockhold doesn't really throw lead leg front kicks very much. The Brazilian kick is not working as part of a double attack and yet opponents still fall for it.

So why bring the knee up straight if you're never going to actually front kick? Well, it's fairly common in traditional martial arts. Bringing as many kicks as possible from the same chamber means that much of the telegraph is lost on each. But more importantly it seems, for Rockhold, the knee acts as a barrier. If an opponent rushes in to punch in answer to your long kicking game, you've got a good chance of preventing him from getting to you.



Michael Bisping ran onto Rockhold's lead knee a couple of times, preventing him from using his fists effectively against the taller, longer opponent.

Certainly a technical choice like this could be a smart one to make against Machida. Though Rockhold's rear leg roundhouse kick rarely comes up in this manner. On his left leg he does utilize a nice double attack though, the body kick and the head kick, and he hurt Michael Bisping in exactly the same way that Vitor Belfort did. Kick the body, kick the body, kick the head.

A final curious similarity between the two is their dislike of low kicks. Machida's retreats—necessary to bait the trap for the counter—leave a leg trailing as the last thing to leave striking range. Mauricio Rua was able to exploit this in their first bout, and even Phil Davies was able to take advantage of a slow fight with a few effective low kicks to steal a decision. Rockhold, meanwhile, stands so narrowly that he can be knocked off balance by low kicks to the backside of his lead leg.

Ultimately, this match reminds me why I love MMA so much. If you were to evaluate each man's combinations or boxing skill, you'd have little to talk about.



I had to shoehorn this backfist in somewhere.

They're pretty clumsy boxers, and work poorly in combinations, but that doesn't stop them from using different skills in the same area of the game to obliterate men with better boxing and kickboxing by basic technical standards. Both are sharpshooters, one a pressure fighter and one a counter fighter—though both branching out into the other's forte in recent fights. And we haven't even mentioned the strong ground game both fighters possess but only really use as a plan B or a finishing stroke.

Whether Rockhold's size and aggression can serve him well against the speed and timing of Machida remains to be seen, but one would have to think that keeping Machida on the end of solid round kicks to the arms, body and legs would be the way to go. The times we have seen Rockhold look less effective have been when he has been forced onto the back foot. Against Belfort it was the fear of the punches coming back which did this, rather than Belfort going on the offensive. This alone makes Rockhold versus Weidman and interesting question.

If effective counter punching makes Rockhold think twice, maybe Machida is the man to do it. Even then Machida's mobility often means that he can be made to breath heavily by the end of the third round, and in a five round fight that could serve to hurt him—yet against Weidman his best counters came almost entirely in the fourth and fifth round.

And that, more than anything, is the joy of this fight. I can see it happening a thousand different ways, and I still have a decent chance of not having covered the outcome. I can only point to the habits of both men and the clash of styles. I don't even have a leaning towards one fighter, and that is making me feel the good kind of uneasiness that sets your nerves on edge just before a real, top-notch fight.

Just watch the fight—it headlines the best free card in ages—and get back here the morning after to read about who got their way and how.

Check out these related stories:

Lyoto Machida: The Double Edged Sword of Competition Karate

Jack Slack: How Weidman Solved the Machida Riddle