Iowa at Michigan

Betting Line: Michigan -3.5

Over/Under: 48

Iowa moved up to 4-0 on the season with a dominant 48-3 win over Middle Tennessee last week. Iowa ran for 351 yards on the day and saw three backs with at least 90 rushing yards. Toren Young led the way with 131 yards. Tyler Goodson and Mekhi Sargent also had good days on the ground. Nate Stanley had a solid day at quarterback. The key to the game for Iowa will be for their offensive line to hold up. Tackles Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs are both very good players and need a good game. Stanley also needs to be able to punish Michigan’s defense on play action. Defensively, Iowa needs to be sound in coverage against Michigan’s strong group of receivers. Cornerbacks DJ Johnson and Michael Ojemudia need to not get burned by Nico Collins, Tarik Black, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson has had a major problem with turning the ball over, and some tight coverage can lead to that. Michigan has struggled to get anything going on the ground this season and I think Iowa should dare Michigan to beat them by running the ball.

Michigan had a nice bounce back win over Rutgers last week. The Wolverines did win 52-0 against Rutgers, but their loss to Wisconsin is still concerning. Michigan’s offense has quite a few holes in it that I am not sure they can solve. The Wolverines have quite a turnover problem. The Wolverines have lost seven fumbles and have thrown three interceptions. Their turnover margin is a woeful -4. Michigan also has yet to find a reliable lead back. Zach Charbonnet and Christian Turner have shown flashes, but consistency has not been established. The run game needs to improve as their competition ramps up. To have success on offense, Michigan needs to at least have a threat at running back. They also need to watch out for Iowa defensive end AJ Epenesa. Epenesa is a very good pass rusher and athlete. Thankfully for Michigan, they have Jon Runyan matched up with him. Runyan is a very good left tackle and should do well at holding off Epenesa. If Michigan can run the ball with relative success and limit turnovers, they will be in a good spot. On defense, the Wolverines will be playing against a very physical Iowa offensive line. Defensive ends Aidan Hutchinson and Kwity Paye will be playing against a pair of offensive tackles for Iowa that could be first round draft picks. They need to hold their own and not get dominated on the edge.

Prediction:

Michigan’s talent prevails as they win 23-20.

Utah State at LSU

Betting Line: LSU -27.5

Over/Under: 73

After a loss at Wake Forest on opening weekend, Utah State has rattled off three straight wins. On offense, the Aggies are led by quarterback Jordan Love. Love has garnered some NFL attention for his size, athleticism, and arm strength. Love is an elite playmaker and has the ability to challenge LSU’s secondary. While he has definite strengths, he is very prone to forcing bad throws and not having the best field vision. If Utah State wants to make things interesting, Love can not make those mistakes. Against a stacked LSU secondary, Love will his receivers to get open as well. Gerold Bright and Jaylen Warren make up a very strong duo at running back and also need to continue their trend of solid play. On defense, the Aggies will be going against a stable of very good LSU receivers. Cornerbacks DJ Williams and Cameron Haney need to not get burned. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow has diced up defenses that are better than Utah State’s so the Aggies need to be in top form. Linebacker David Woodward will also be a player to watch as he has four forced fumbles already this season.

LSU had a bye last week. The Tigers have been one of the most interesting teams of this season so far. They have bucked their typical trend of relying on their defense and run game and this season are built around their passing game. Joe Burrow threw for 398 yards and six touchdowns last week, and has thrown for 17 touchdowns so far this season. Receivers Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Terrace Marshall have all been great targets. Their receivers need to play well today if they want to cover the spread. Clyde Edwards-Helaire run game also need to develop in order to prevent Utah State from selling out to stop the pass. On defense, the Tigers need to be sound in coverage. Utah State quarterback Jordan Love is a very good player, but will make some bad throws. If LSU can cover well, those errant passes will happen even more often.

Prediction:

Utah State never makes it close but barely sticks around as LSU wins 49-27.

Texas at West Virginia

Betting Line: West Virginia +10

Over/Under: 61

Texas had the week off last week. The Longhorns are 3-1 on the season and their most recent outing was a 36-30 win over Oklahoma State. On offense, Texas has become a bit more balanced this season. Sam Ehlinger is still an elite quarterback and leads a strong passing attack, but the run game has developed more this season. Running back Keaontay Ingram ran for over 100 yards against Oklahoma State and has become a more reliable piece of the offense. With receiver Collin Johnson battling injuries, Devin Duvernay and Brennan Eagles have stepped up their play. With Johnson still not at full health, Duvernay and Eagles need to be ready to play. Ehlinger is also going to have to work some magic as usual. Defensively, Texas might have given up 30 points last week but I was still impressed. Oklahoma State has a tremendous running back and receiver, and Texas was able to do well containing both of them. What is concerning is that cornerback Jalen Green and safety Caden Sterns are both out. Safeties BJ Foster and DeMarvion Overshown are both questionable. All four are contributors to the secondary with Sterns likely being the best player Texas has on defense. The Longhorns will need to not get burned. If they can find competent replacements, they should have little trouble with the Mountaineers.

West Virginia also had a bye last week and sits at 3-1 on the season. On offense, the Mountaineers are led by Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall. Kendall has completed 65% of his passes this season, but barely reaches six yards per pass attempt. Kendall has done fine, but does not seem like the guy to really test a defense. On the ground, Kennedy McKoy leads the way. Martell Pettaway ran 121 yards Texas last season but has just 54 rushing yards so far this season. True freshman Sam James has been a breakout player at receiver as he leads the team with 26 receptions and 263 receiving yards. West Virginia will need to find a big play threat for this game if they want to pull off the upset. Defensively, the Mountaineers will need to put a spy on Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger. JoVanni Stewart looked to be that guy, but he is out this week and Kwantel Raines will look to take that spot. Raines needs to make sure Ehlinger does not ever take over the game. West Virginia’s cornerbacks also need to not get overpowered by a bigger and physical Texas receiving corps.

Prediction:

Texas gets revenge from last season with a 41-28.

Baylor at Kansas State

Betting Line: Kansas State -1.5

Over/Under: 45

Baylor is sitting at 4-0 after a thrilling win over Iowa State last week. The Bears secured the win by making a field goal with 21 seconds left to play. While they had not beaten anyone of note before last week, it is still always nice to be 4-0. Charlie Brewer threw for three touchdowns and connected often with Tyquan Thornton and Denzel Mims. Thornton had 141 receiving yards and Mims had 106. If Brewer gets time to throw, then a performance like that is possible again. Thornton and Mims need to get open, and the offensive line needs to hold up. On defense, the Bears will be playing against a strong Kansas State rushing attack. Baylor runs a 3-3-5 on defense, so they will need to be sending guys on blitzes often. The front six will need to make quick reads and get to the ball quickly. I do not think Kansas State is good enough at quarterback to win this game through the air, so Baylor stopping the run will be huge.

Kansas State suffered their first loss of the season last week as the lost 26-13 to Oklahoma State. The Wildcats were unable to march down the field running the ball and it made it very hard for them to do much on offense before their defense inevitably gave up some points. Kansas State ran for 3.9 yards per carry but never had a run of more than 20 yards. Quarterback Skylar Thompson has had his concerns and he will need to be able to at least hold a threat to make plays through the air. If he can do that, it can keep Baylor’s defense honest. Obviously, running backs James Gilbert, Jordon Brown, and James Trotter need to play well too. Defensively, the Wildcats will have their hands full defending the pass. Cornerbacks AJ Parker Walter Neil need to do well covering Baylor receiver Denzel Mims, as does safety Denzel Goolsby. If defensive end Wyatt Hubert can get a pass rush, it would definitely help out.

Prediction:

Baylor stays undefeated and wins 20-19.

Auburn at Florida

Betting Line: Florida +2.5

Over/Under: 48.5

Auburn is now 5-0 this season after a dominant 56-23 win over Mississippi State. The Tigers led 42-9 at one point in the first half. True freshman quarterback Bo Nix has really settled into the offense by now as he threw for 335 yards last week on just 21 attempts. Auburn’s offense has developed quite nicely this season. Their offensive line is greatly improved, the run game has worked well, and there is a nice group of receivers. Auburn will need to protect Nix this game. The run game will need to develop early with JaTarvious Whitlow and Shaun Shivers. If the offensive line allows the run game to be established early, the Tigers will be hard to stop. On defense, I think Auburn needs to send pressure and create chaos in the pocket. Florida’s offensive line has holes and can definitely be exploited. Auburn’s defensive line is so good, they might not even need to send that many guys at the quarterback.

Florida had a nice cupcake win last week as they blew out FCS foe Towson 38-0. While some of their games have not been pretty, it is still impressive to be 5-0 at this point in the season, and Florida is ranked in the top 10. While Florida is 5-0, I am still concerned about quarterback Kyle Trask’s ability in big games or while being pressured. Auburn’s defensive line might be the best one in the country and he can not falter if there are defensive linemen coming at him. The offensive line needs to hold up this game and give Trask time to throw it. If their receivers can create separation, it would definitely help as well. If not, it will be a long day. Defensively, Florida should be trying to send pressure on Auburn’s true freshman quarterback. While he has had good games, it is hard to trust a true freshman in a big game on the road to handle pressure well. Auburn also is typically a run reliant team, so winning the battle in the trenches will be a big thing.

Prediction:

Auburn wins in a tough environment 27-24.

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