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Early vote turnout has surged 508% among voters under 30, in part due to the Senate campaign of Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

Here are the early voting turnout numbers in Texas:

Hispanic voters in Texas have surged in early vote turnout by more than any other race/ethnicity, with a 214% increase. This is compared to a 165% increase among white voters. — Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 30, 2018

Ted Cruz Has A Huge Beto O’Rourke Problem

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It has long been the conventional wisdom in the Texas Senate race that the Republican advantage in the state would carry Sen. Ted Cruz to a narrow victory. While this may end up still being true, the early voting turnout numbers that are coming in with key constituencies for Beto O’Rourke are something that the conventional wisdom did not take into consideration.

What happens in Texas if voters who usually don’t vote in elections suddenly turn out? The answer is that Beto O’Rourke will be in a much stronger position than anyone could have imagined on election day. O’Rourke is still the underdog in this election, but there are signs in the data that he has a real chance to win.

Rep. O’Rourke has run a solid campaign. He hasn’t taken the bait and nationalized the Texas Senate race. The Democrat has ignored Trump’s taunts and insults and focused on Texas, which is a smart strategy when challenging an incumbent who started running for president virtually from the moment that he won his Senate seat.

Democrats have consistently outperformed the polls since Trump took office. The early turnout numbers among key Democratic constituencies suggest that this could be happening in Texas. If the early voting numbers stay this strong, what was once unthinkable could become a reality. Beto O’Rourke may defeat Ted Cruz.

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