January 06, 2016 Was This Fantasy Syria Timeline Leaked To Push For Open War? Last years weed harvest at the White House must have produced some extraordinary strong stuff. That at least would explain this leaked administration timeline for regime change in Syria: An internal timeline prepared for U.S. officials dealing with the Syria crisis sets an unspecified date in March 2017 for Assad to "relinquish" his position as president and for his "inner circle" to depart.

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The document obtained by the AP starts Syria's new political process next month. An 18-month transition period would be initiated, consistent with the plan endorsed by the U.N. Security Council last month. The U.N.'s special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, has set a Jan. 25 date for government-opposition peace talks to begin in Geneva. The U.S. timeline envisions the Security Council signing off on a framework for negotiations between Assad's representatives and the opposition, leading to the formation of a security committee in April. That would be accompanied by an amnesty for some government and military members, and moderate opposition leaders and fighters. The transitional governing body would then be created. In May, the Syrian parliament would dissolve, according to the timeline. The Security Council would recognize the new transitional authority and lay out the transition's next steps. These include major political reforms, the nomination of an interim legislature and an international donors' conference to fund Syria's transition and reconstruction. The next six months, through November 2016 — when Obama's successor is elected — would be devoted to the sides drafting a new constitution. The Syrian people would get a chance to vote on that document in a popular referendum in January 2017, according to the timeline.

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In March 2017, the timeline reads: "As[s]ad relinquishes presidency; inner circle departs."

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Syria's new government would assume full powers from the transitional body after the parliamentary and presidential elections in August. This reads as if a White House intern got high and dreamed up a wishlist for regime change planers. There are more problems here than actual steps: Who is "the opposition"?

What is a "security committee" and who would decide who joins it?

Who would legislate an amnesty under what legal authority?

What is a "transitional government body" and who would decide who joins it?

On what basis should such a presumably unelected body have any authority to institute "major legal reforms"?

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Why would Assad "relinquish" his presidency?

Why would the "inner circle", which presumably includes Syria's military leaders, agree to depart?

What about the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in Syria? Following this fantasy timeline would constitute a complete surrender of the current Syrian government and its allies. With the Syrian army progressing on all fronts there is no reason for them to agree to it. The people who leaked the above nonsense must know that it is complete unrealistic. Why then was it leaked? My hunch is that the leak is from someone who has a "faster please" mentality for spreading more chaos in the Middle East. The Associated Press story is framed as "Assad would outlast Obama presidency". It is to incite the war hawks like Clinton to demand an faster if not immediate "solution". Such would require an open war including with Russia. We expect this leak to be followed by new calls for a "no-fly zone" and other war starting gimmicks. Posted by b on January 6, 2016 at 16:20 UTC | Permalink Comments