For quarterback Dak Prescott to solidify himself as a “no doubt about it,” top-tier passer in the NFL, he’s going to have to be aggressive, especially in third-down situations. His tendency to play conservatively has many doubting the mega-contract Prescott is demanding.

Football Outsiders, via ESPN, covered the best and worst of all things quarterback in 2018. Cowboys fans hoping to find Prescott as a surprise member of the league’s best will be disappointed as the only mention here is his lack of aggressiveness, grading out as the third-most conservative third-down quarterback in the NFL.

One of the major reasons Prescott surprised in 2016 after being a Day 3 draft pick was his willingness to be aggressive on third downs. That year, Prescott threw 1.2 yards past the line to gain on average and converted 41% of his third-down chances into first downs. But since then, Prescott has declined to +0.5 ALEX in 2017 and minus-1.0 ALEX in 2018, and his third-down conversion rate has declined in step. On a run-focused team, Prescott tends to face third downs that are more difficult than ones for a typical quarterback — he averaged 8.3 yards to gain in 2018 — but that was true in his rookie season, too. Perhaps the Cowboys have the defense and running game to win using Prescott as a game manager, but he has the talent to be more than that.

For those unfamiliar with Football Outsiders nomenclature, ALEX is named for noted conservative quarterback Alex Smith, and per their almanac, it’s defined as “Air Less EXpected and measures the distance of each quarterback’s average third-down throw compared to how many yards were needed for a first down.”

Not only was Prescott the third-most conservative quarterback on the most important down in football, as far as full-time starters go, he was the absolute worst. On the average third down, Prescott was throwing the ball an entire yard short of the first-down marker.

So is it scheme or talent holding Prescott back?

The naysayers would say it’s the latter, but coaching and play-calling have been the primary culprit. It’s no secret the run-heavy offense often puts the Dallas offense behind the chains. After all, it’s much easier to throw a 2-yard pass on third-and-1 than it is a 9-yard pass on third-and-8. Whether the blame lies at the feet of head coach Jason Garrett or former offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, Dallas has been perfectly fine with avoiding turnovers and continuing to play close games.

And as long as the Cowboys are content to live to see another play, Prescott will continue to struggle in this metric and Dallas will have a hard time putting points on the board. It is the job of newly minted offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to rectify this. It’s his job to make Prescott’s life easier.

Prescott is more than capable of cutting the ball loose. By passer rating, he was at his best in 2018 when throwing the ball downfield.

This isn’t to say that every third down needs to be a pass that travels 20-plus yards past the line of scrimmage. But it is to say that an uptick in aggressive play-calling can work wonders for both Prescott and the offense, regardless of the down-and-distance.