Jon Ralston

Predicting electoral outcomes in the Year of Trump is a task most suited to someone almost as narcissistic and obnoxious.

I’m here for you.

Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll, and I have not believed surveys here for many cycles. Remember all those polls that guaranteed Harry Reid would lose in 2010? Sen. Sharron Angle? Paging Sen. Sharron Angle?

Donald Trump may have been here this weekend, believing in the polls that show him ahead or competitive here. But like Bruce Willis in “The Sixth Sense” (spoiler alert), he does not realize he is dead.

The Democratic early voting effort, which was much more difficult with a nominee so many Democrats don’t like or trust, has been impressive — a valedictory statement from The Reid Machine. A nearly 73,000-ballot lead over Republicans for Democrats in Clark County beats the 2012 margin (71,000) — and President Obama won the state four years ago by nearly 7 points.

The Democrats even have a 1,000-ballot edge in Washoe. Ominous.

Yes, 2016 is not 2012. Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama. Plenty of votes will be cast Tuesday.

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But: About two-thirds of the votes already have been banked if the past is prologue, so unless the GOP can juice turnout to record levels on Election Day (especially in the rurals where Trump will win bigly) and win Tuesday by a huge margin (the Democrats won Election Day in 2012) and an unusual number of Democrats are voting for Trump (no reliable private polling shows this) and Trump wins independent voters by more than 20 points (reliable polling here shows him losing nonpartisans), he is cooked. Believe me!

The only real question, I think, is how deep the blue wave goes. My guess: Very deep. (I think Rep. Mark Amodei will be fine, but the stain of his full Trump embrace will linger when he returns to run for something in 2018.)

President: Nevada leaned toward Hillary Clinton since the race began. Why?

The last two cycles. The high Latino vote. The Democratic machine vs. the Trump/GOP nonexistent ground game.

The only reason I ever thought he had a chance here was because of the lack of enthusiasm for her and the plethora of uneducated voters here (aka, Trump’s base). But the early voting numbers are so daunting, and the Hispanic turnout was so large in Clark County his path went from narrow to blocked. Clinton, 46 percent; Trump, 40 percent; Gary Johnson, 7 percent; none of the above, 7 percent.

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U.S. Senate: Rep. Joe Heck saw the possible wave coming from the beginning, and he was running against a foe, Catherine Cortez Masto, who was not well-known despite two terms as attorney general. So, with the help of some outside friends who will make this a $100 million race and the most expensive in Nevada history, Heck portrayed Cortez Masto as a corrupt tool of Reid. This was how Dean Heller survived in the blue wave of 2012, but his opponent, then-Rep. Shelley Berkley, was under a House Ethics probe. Heck is a formidable candidate — an Iraq war vet and brigadier general who knows the issues very well. But he, like so many here and elsewhere, had trouble with Trump. He reluctantly embraced him, calling him “the nominee,” which was code everywhere for “he who shall not be named.” But then he disavowed Trump after the “Access Hollywood” tape and told him to step down — only to equivocate just last week. How much did it hurt him, if at all? Enough, I think, combined with high Hispanic turnout to elect the first Latina in U.S. Senate history. Cortez Masto, 46 percent; Heck, 43 percent; rest and none of the above, 11 percent.

CD3: Heck’s seat should go to a Republican. It has only been held by a Democrat for one term in its history (Dina Titus won it in 2008). But Danny Tarkanian is no ordinary Republican. He has the famous name, but that has not carried him far enough in four previous runs for office. He has the enthusiasm and energy, but his baggage would make his late Dad chew through his towel. Jacky Rosen was Reid’s 17th choice or so, but the political neophyte has proven to be the surprise of the cycle: tough, resolute, nimble. Fifth time not the charm. Rosen, 48 percent; Tarkanian, 45 percent; rest, 7 percent.

CD4: Rep. Cresent Hardy defeated then-Rep. Steven Horsford in one of the biggest upsets in Nevada history last cycle. Hardy is a rural guy in a mostly urban district, with high minority turnout. If it hadn’t been for Trump and the blue wave, he might have pulled off an upset, especially with brutal (and over the top) ads linking state Sen. Ruben Kihuen to his pal, Ricki Barlow, a Las Vegas councilman under federal investigation. The early vote has given Kihuen an insurmountable lead. Kihuen, 51 percent; Hardy, 47 percent; rest, 2 percent.

Legislature: The question in both houses is whether the blue wave wipes out GOP control. The Democrats didn’t get much help to win back the house where they lost 10 seats in the red wave of ’14. But they got it, so I think they will have 24 seats come 2017. I am saddened that some good, thoughtful GOP rookies will be drowned by the wave — it’s rare to get high-quality folks in Carson City. As for the state Senate, despite the early vote leaning toward the Democrats, Republicans feel confident that Heidi Gansert will take Greg Brower’s seat in Washoe. I believe it will be closer than they think. That would mean Democrats would need to take both seats down South. It will be tight, but I believe it will happen. Democrats, 11-10, in the Senate.

I could be wrong, but that rarely happens — believe me!

Jon Ralston has been covering Nevada politics for more than a quarter-century and also blogs at ralstonreports.com.