TO: Interested Parties

FR: Meredith Kelly, DCCC Communications Director

RE: Key Takeaways from MT-AL

DT: 5/26/17



Bottom line : Combined with the positive trends in KS-04 and the GA-06 primary, Democrats are gaining ground at a rate that will put a large number of seats in play during the 2018 midterms.

Montana At-Large has long been a reliably Republican-held seat (Rep. Pat Williams was the last Democrat to hold the seat through 1997). In 2016, candidate Donald Trump carried the state by more than 20 points & Rep. Ryan Zinke by more than 15 points – from the beginning this race was going to be very difficult, particularly for an oddly timed special election still in Trump’s “honeymoon.”

Despite the headwinds, Rob Quist had a strong showing, earned over 44% of the vote and outperformed Secretary Clinton by 8 points. Embarrassingly for the Republicans, they squandered more than $6 million in order to protect what has long been considered a safe red seat – for a likely criminal no less.

Realities of Montana At-Large:

In 2016, President Trump carried Montana by 6 points and Ryan Zinke won by 15.6 points.

Unsurprisingly based on that, Trump’s approval rating has not plummeted in the ways we’ve seen in other districts across the country. Relying on a backlash to President Trump was never going to work in Montana. According to a DCCC poll conducted by The Mellman Group (5/16 -17), Donald Trump’s favorability was above water: 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable. It was even higher before events related to FBI Director Comey’s May 9 th

To put this race in context, there are 114 Republican-held districts with more favorable Cook Partisan Voter Index ratings than MT-AL.

In their latest analysis, the Cook Political Report outlined how to interpret the special election results: “But takencollectively, the margins in specials can tell us a good deal about the political environment — and so far, it’s looking really bad for Republicans.”

Republicans Spent Millions to Elect a Likely Criminal in a Ruby Red Seat:

All told, the NRCC & Congressional Leadership Fund spent over $6 million to elect multi-millionaire Greg Gianforte in a congressional seat not held by a Democrat for decades. At that spending rate, these Republicans groups will be forced to spend many hundreds of millions of dollars to defend their incumbents in similarly safe red seats in 2018.



DCCC Polling & Analytics Got it Right:

Since March, the DCCC and its allies recorded five separate polling data sets that showed the race was stuck at an average 10 point deficit with a small percentage of undecideds and a margin of error of +/-3 points. The DCCC always allowed that the race could enter the single digits based on an enthusiasm gap to Quist’s advantage.

with a small percentage of undecideds and a margin of error of +/-3 points. The DCCC always allowed that the race could enter the single digits based on an enthusiasm gap to Quist’s advantage. Early Vote By Mail was assessed each day after ballots dropped to 60% of Montanans on May 1st. Quist needed a strong advantage before Thursday. As with the polling, the DCCC’s modeling also clearly indicated that Gianforte had a consistent, insurmountable advantage in the Early Vote By Mail. That data and modeling was right.

DCCC Took A Smart Chance With Its Investments, Refused to Waste Money on Hype:

Within weeks of the nominating convention, the DCCC took a chance on underdog Rob Quist – who was doing all the right things in his campaign – and invested to help him achieve parity on television. The key question: would this move this tough race in his favor?

All told, the DCCC invested over $500K on television specifically, which allowed Quist to move things around and achieve parity on television for weeks. Millions of dollars in small-dollar donations came in to backfill that decision, and he was saturated on television.

Unfortunately, after weeks of parity, the head-to-head numbers simply did not move , according to multiple data sets before and after the investments.

Greg Gianforte Fatally Flawed General Election Candidate: