This is a summary of the races for conference titles in leagues that if all things break right could get more than one bid in the NCAA tournament, some more likely than others. The conferences include: Atlantic 10, Conference USA, MAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and WAC.

Atlantic 10



Team x100Rate Conf W-L W-L CheeksRank KenPom RHODE ISLAND 22.89 11-0 19-3 21 30 DAVIDSON 15.59 8-3 13-9 52 58 ST BONAVENTURE 11.87 6-4 16-6 73 75 DAYTON 9.43 6-4 10-12 91 142 VA COMMONWEALTH 7.06 6-4 14-9 109 132 SAINT LOUIS 5.58 6-5 12-11 117 135 DUQUESNE 4.48 6-5 15-9 126 173 RICHMOND -2.53 6-4 8-14 193 186

Last At-Large Bid: 2017 (2005 was last non-multi bid season)

Regular Season Favorite: Rhode Island

At-Large Hopefuls: Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure

Rhode Island is currently undefeated in conference with a 3 game lead over Davidson and a 4.5 game lead over all other teams. Rhode Island hosts Davidson Feb. 9th and travels to Davidson for their regular season finale March 2nd. For that game to mean anything for the conference championship Davidson will need to score a road upset while also hoping to play 1 game better than the Rams down the stretch, a difficult proposition with Rhode Island not yet losing and Davidson having to travel to St. Bonaventure, Duquesne, and VCU down the stretch. St. Bonaventure has quality non-conference wins over Maryland, Buffalo, Vermont, and Syracuse but with 4 conference losses the Bonnies are on the fringes of the at-large discussion, they probably can only afford one regular season loss plus a conference tournament loss at most to have any chance. If Rhode Island wins the A-10 tournament I would expect this league to get only 1 bid for the first time since 2005.

Conference USA

Team x100Rate Conf W-L W-L CheeksRank KenPom MIDDLE TENN ST 15.81 10-1 17-5 50 43 W KENTUCKY 15.34 8-2 15-7 53 55 OLD DOMINION 12.92 8-2 17-5 66 73 UAB 8.48 6-5 13-9 98 98 TX-SAN ANTONIO -1.75 6-5 10-11 188 163 MARSHALL 2.39 6-4 14-8 149 133 N TEXAS -5.16 6-4 11-10 206 187

Last At-Large Bid: 2012 (Southern Mississippi)

Regular Season Favorite: Middle Tennessee

At-Large Hopefuls: Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky

Middle Tennessee is the favorite to win the regular season title having already defeated Western Kentucky and Old Dominion on the road. They host Western Kentucky on March 1st and do not play ODU again this season and five of their seven remaining games at home, barring any upsets they should win the C-USA for the second straight year. Non-conference wins for Middle Tennessee to hang their hat on are a pair of wins over SEC opponents home against Ole Miss and a road win against Vanderbilt, while having no bad losses (Belmont, Auburn, USC, Miami, Marshall). Western Kentucky has the next best chance for an at-large bid resting almost entirely on its huge neutral site win over Purdue, with a win over SMU also looking impressive. A loss to UT-San Antonio really hurt their chances and they probably cannot afford any more regular season losses, the Hilltoppers will have to hope the committee really respects an early season win over a now top 5 team. As for Old Dominion their chances at an at-large are just about zero but if they can win out and finish 25-5, with a loss sometime in the C-USA tournament, they would merit some consideration as a final team in the tournament. Their resume is pretty soft with the best wins against A-10 foes Richmond and Dayton. The conference’s best hopes for an at-large probably rests on Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee winning the rest of their games and meeting for the conference championship.

MAC

Team x100Rate Conf W-L W-L CheeksRank KenPom BUFFALO 14.54 10-1 17-6 57 79 TOLEDO 9.25 9-2 16-7 92 108 W MICHIGAN 1.80 6-5 12-10 153 171 KENT ST 0.27 6-5 11-12 165 213 MIAMI OHIO -0.10 6-5 11-11 170 197 BALL ST -0.91 6-5 14-9 181 177

Last At-Large Bid: 1999 (Miami Ohio)

Regular Season Favorite: Buffalo

At-Large Hopefuls: Buffalo

Buffalo has all but sewn up the MAC Eastern division title with Toledo doing the same in the West. Ball State has beaten Toledo once and gets another crack at them on Feb 17th in Muncie, if Ball State can take that they could make the division interesting with some help. However Buffalo is the conference’s only hope at an at-large bid and even then it is a small chance as the MAC hasn’t received an at-large since the Wally Szczerbiak led Miami Ohio team in 1999. Buffalo missed chances at marquee non-conferences wins on trips to Syracuse and Texas A&M in December. In order to grab an at-large Buffalo would need to win out until a MAC championship loss to Toledo and even then their case would be awfully weak.

Missouri Valley

Team x100Rate Conf W-L W-L CheeksRank KenPom LOYOLA-IL 13.50 9-3 18-5 63 56 BRADLEY 5.20 7-5 16-8 119 115 S ILLINOIS 5.06 8-4 15-9 121 117 ILLINOIS ST 2.63 7-5 12-11 146 148 DRAKE -0.49 7-5 12-12 175 165

Last At-Large Bid: 2016 (Wichita State, last non-Creighton/Wichita State- Southern Illinois in 2007)

Regular Season Favorite: Loyola/Southern Illinois

At-Large Hopefuls: Loyola

With Wichita State’s departure from The Valley the top spot was up for grabs this year with Loyola looking like the favorite at the moment with Southern Illinois right behind them, in their best season since 2007. The Feb. 21st matchup in Carbondale will determine whether Southern Illinois has a chance at winning the conference or if Loyola will pull away with a one game lead already including a home victory over SIU. As for multi-bid hopes Loyola has a huge win at Florida to impress the committee but also a terrible loss against UW-Milwaukee to somewhat offset that. They’ll have to hope the committee likes the Florida win enough, but looking back to just last year’s Illinois State team it will be an uphill battle.

Mountain West

Team x100Rate Conf W-L W-L CheeksRank KenPom NEVADA 23.31 9-1 20-4 20 18 BOISE ST 16.78 10-2 19-4 47 48 FRESNO ST 12.57 7-5 15-8 67 71 NEW MEXICO 4.99 7-5 11-13 122 123 UTAH ST 3.84 6-5 12-11 130 131 WYOMING 3.82 6-4 14-8 132 122

Last At-Large Bid: 2015 (San Diego State, Boise State)

Regular Season Favorite: Nevada/Bosie State

At-Large Hopefuls: Nevada, Boise State

Nevada and Boise State are clearly the class of the league in a year where it looks like the conference as a whole is much improved and trying to get back to its yearly multi-bids. Nevada visits Boise State on Feb. 14th in a game where a victory would give the Wolfpack a 2 game lead with a season sweep over Boise State. If you squint hard enough you could see this league getting three bids if a non Nevada/Boise State team wins the conference auto-bid. Nevada has a very strong case for a bid and barring any bad upsets will receive one regardless of its an at-large or auto. They have quality non-conference wins against Rhode Island and Davidson with close losses to Texas Tech and TCU with the only bad loss to WCC 5th place team San Francisco in the Las Vegas Classic. As for Boise State, they have good non-conference wins at Oregon and against Loyola and no bad losses with only losses away from home (neutral Iowa State, at SMU, at Wyoming, at Nevada). Boise State is currently right on the end of the at-large discussion but cannot afford any bad losses or more than one or two losses at all. This league could get three teams in if someone other than Nevada beats Boise State in the title game but they should be content with just two after two straight single bid years.

Sun Belt

Team x100Rate Conf W-L W-L CheeksRank KenPom LA-LAFAYETTE 14.51 10-0 18-3 58 53 GEORGIA ST 1.75 9-2 16-6 154 101 GA SOUTHERN 0.76 7-4 14-8 160 130 TEXAS ST -7.64 7-5 12-11 228 209

Last At-Large Bid: 2013 (Middle Tennessee, last by a team still in the conference- 2008 South Alabama)

Regular Season Favorite: Louisiana-Lafayette

At-Large Hopefuls: Louisiana-Lafayette

Louisiana-Lafayette has been running roughshod over the Sun Belt not winning a game by less than 10. Their toughest test of the season is upcoming on Feb. 8th at second place Georgia State, if they can win out and continue to dominate and suffer a late loss in the Sun Belt tournament to either Georgia State or Southern they have a slim chance at an at-large with their gaudy win total. They are lacking in the non-conference department with their most impressive wins over Iowa and Richmond in the Cayman Islands and on the road against Louisiana Tech. If they can continue their impressive play and move into the top 50 of RPI and other analytical rankings the committee will at least have to give them a look.

WAC

Team x100Rate Conf W-L W-L CheeksRank KenPom NEW MEXICO ST 17.22 7-0 17-3 45 36 UTAH VALLEY ST 8.43 5-2 13-7 100 100 GRAND CANYON 8.18 6-2 16-7 102 102 SEATTLE -0.43 5-2 13-8 173 199

Last At-Large Bid: 2010 (Utah State, non since large scale realignment)

Regular Season Favorite: New Mexico State

At-Large Hopefuls: New Mexico State

New Mexico State is continuing its domination of the WAC, having been to 5 of the past 6 tournaments, but the league is clawing back from the dead after conference realignment with two other top 100 quality programs. NM State plays UVU and Grand Canyon back to back games Feb. 10th and Feb. 15th, if they can win both of those and the rest of their games until the conference title they would have a solid case at an at-large bid with a 26-4 record and a huge non-conference win over ACC contender Miami. Their losses are to St Mary’s, USC, and San Diego so they will not hold them back to much in the committees eyes. In coach Chris Jans first year New Mexico State has the WAC’s first at-large hopes in years.