As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) painted the country saffron in the 2014 general election, winning 282 out of 543 seats, a few states stood out for being immune to its leader and now prime minister Narendra Modi's appeal. Odisha was one of them — the BJP won just one out of 21 seats and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which had ruled the state since 2000, won the rest. The BJP was no greenhorn in Odisha, as it was in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, two other states that bucked the Modi wave. The BJP was part of the ruling coalition in the state between 2000 and 2009.What it pointed to was the BJD's, or more accurately, its leader Naveen Patnaik 's grip on the state. It did not matter that the BJD was not part of a national coalition, nor were the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu. Voters in these states backed the regional parties as if it were an assembly election, except that Odisha also had its state polls concurrently, which benefited the BJD in the general election.In its best ever performance, the BJD swept the assembly election too, bagging 117 out of 147 seats (the BJP won 10 and the Congress 16), giving Patnaik his fourth straight term as chief minister. Only two of his present counterparts have won four consecutive elections or more: Sikkim’s Pawan Chamling and Tripura's Manik Sarkar. Patnaik's father Biju Patnaik was chief minister of Odisha twice.The BJD and the BJP first joined hands in 1998 and fought every parliamentary and state election together till 2009, when the BJD decided to part ways because the BJP did not agree to give the BJD more seats than in the old seat-sharing agreement. Some cite the Kandhamal riots of 2008, in which the killing of a Vishwa Hindu Parishad leader led to clashes between Hindus and Christians, as another reason for the BJD severing ties with the BJP; some 38 perished in those clashes that led to the conviction of a BJP MLA.Modi is aware of how far the BJP has to go to even dream of having a shot at power on its own in the state in 2019 and that is why he chose Odisha for one of the five rallies to mark his government's second anniversary.The rally in Balasore, 200 km north of the state capital Bhubaneswar, on June 2, was Modi's second in the state since February. It was also his fourth visit to Odisha since becoming prime minister in May 2014. At the rally he told an estimated 50,000 people that while Odisha is a mineral-rich state, its people continue to be poor, calling Patnaik's government "soi hui sarkar" (government in slumber). Modi said neither the Congress at the Centre earlier nor the BJD in the state has given an account of its performance like his government has. Patnaik responded by saying his government believes in work, not propaganda. He accused the Modi government of stopping some schemes for the state and reducing its contribution in others.Sudhir Patnaik, editor of Samadrusti, an Odia fortnightly, says Modi refrains from attacking Naveen, creating confusion in the minds of voters and the BJP cadre. "People see the BJP and BJD together and that doesn't help the BJP. These days, Modi's rallies are not attracting the kind of crowds they used to." He adds that the 69-year-old chief minister also rarely hits out at opposition leaders. "Naveen Patnaik is an astute politician who uses silence to his advantage."Can the BJP look to its rise in Assam for some lessons in Odisha? After all, the party was not a force to reckon with in Assam after the 2011 assembly polls, in which it won only five out of 126 seats. But it managed to regroup in the years leading up to the 2016 election, which it won through a coalition, helped in no small measure by anti-incumbency against former Congress chief minister Tarun Gogoi, who had won three consecutive terms. The BJP is facing a similar scenario in Odisha, with three years to go for the next poll, so can it capitalise on it?Tathagata Satpathy, a BJD MP, does not think so. "The BJP had (Sarbananda) Sonowal in Assam. Here they don't have a leader like him." Sudhir Patnaik concurs: "Neither the BJP nor the Congress has a leader who can stand up to Naveen Patnaik." The Congress is the chief opposition party in the state, though the number of its MLAs and its vote share have been falling since 2004. The BJP's vote share, on the other hand, rose between 2009 and 2014.The BJP's Samir Mohanty says its leadership vacuum in the state has ended with Dharmendra Pradhan, Union minister of state (independent charge) for petroleum and natural gas, being accepted by the people to lead the party. "He is ahead (of the other leaders)." But Pradhan, observers believe, does not have a pan-state appeal. The other prominent leader, Jual Oram, who is the sole BJP MP from Odisha and is the Union tribal affairs minister, is not in a better position either, though tribals account for nearly a fourth of the state's population. Neither Pradhan nor Oram was available for comment.Differences within the party are also becoming more evident. Recently, Rourkela MLA Dilip Ray stayed away from a party event in the city, protesting against the delay in the upgrade of a local hospital, despite promises by the prime minister. This forced two Union ministers who had been scheduled to attend the event to cancel their plans. Arun Singh, a BJP general secretary who is in charge of Odisha, makes light of it, and says the issue concerned Ray's constituency, not the party.Making things worse for the BJP were the recent bypolls to three local body seats, including one in Cuttack: the party came third in all of them. The BJD, which had held them, lost two to the Congress. Satpathy says while the issues on which these were fought were local, the results are a signal to the party not to be overconfident. Prasad Harichandan, president of the Congress in Odisha, sees the results as a harbinger of better days, but this might be wishful thinking, as these are not Lok Sabha or assembly by-polls.Bhartruhari Mahtab, BJD MP from Cuttack, alleges an understanding between the Congress and BJP in the bypoll in the city, which led to the former's victory. "The consolidation of anti-BJD votes is happening sporadically." He said the BJD wants both the Congress and the BJP in the state. "We want a triangular fight."What the opposition will be banking on is anti-incumbency as Patnaik will have been chief minister for 19 years when the state goes to the polls in 2019. But Satpathy says there is no anti-incumbency in Odisha, thanks to welfare schemes, like 25 kg rice per month at Rs 1 per kg for the poor, and free bicycles to schoolchildren. These welfare schemes have, to an extent, blunted the impact of a Rs 4,600 crore chit fund scam, in which an MP and an MLA of the BJD were arrested. Also, the Trinamool's comprehensive victory in West Bengal, despite its members being linked to the Saradha scam, makes some wonder whether the chit fund scam will have any impact in the 2019 polls, which will coincide with the general election.A Rs 59,000 crore illegal iron and manganese ore scam, which was probed by a commission before the 2014 polls, did not affect the BJD at the hustings. "We can’t say which issues will become important at the time of the election," says BJP's Odisha president Basanta Panda. He rules out the possibility of the BJP going back to join forces with the BJD, at least not before the 2019 election. Singh says the BJP is organising programmes against the government frequently at the mandal and district levels. "It takes time to fight the party you ran the government with. But we are confident of winning the 2019 election.""Anti-incumbency will work only if there is an alternative. In 2014, the Congress was not an alternative to the BJD," says Harichandan. The Congress is hopeful about the 2019 polls. "If the BJP could form the government (at the Centre) with a 31% vote share (in 2014), why should we lose hope?" asks Congress leader and leader of the opposition in the Odisha assembly, Narasingha Mishra. The Congress had a vote share of 26% in the 2014 assembly election.If Modi's rallies are any indication, there is no doubt that capturing Odisha is a top priority for the BJP and with three years to go for the election, it has enough time to work toward its goal. But time is not the only factor; the BJP cannot afford to be rudderless in the state. Modi's frequent visits to the state notwithstanding, the party has to identify and rally behind a leader who can take on the might of Naveen Patnaik.