'No one will be untouched': Climate change will lead to war, famine and extreme weather, claims IPCC report



Report said we have seen impacts of global warming on every continent

Experts warned people are ill prepared to cope with the dramatic change

It predicted violent conflicts, food shortages and infrastructure damage



Extreme weather will increase poverty and damage animal and sea life

One of the report's contributors has accused the IPCC of being too ‘alarmist’ – and demanded his name be withdrawn

No one will be untouched by climate change with storm surges, flooding and heatwaves among the key risks of global warming in the coming decades, claim scientists.

This was the warning made in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II report.

The report said that violent conflicts, food shortages and serious infrastructure damage were also predicted to become more widespread over the coming years.

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The IPCC has predicted that few areas will be left untouched by the impacts of climate change, which they say will include increasing levels of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and snow storms

It argued that rising temperatures will exacerbate poverty and damage land and marine species.

It also claimed that the world is in ‘an era of man-made climate change’ and has already seen impacts of global warming on every continent and across the oceans.

And experts warned that in many cases, people are ill-prepared to cope with the risks of a changing climate.

The IPCC report is the first comprehensive analysis in seven years of the global consequences of climate change.

Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change over the 21st century. Yellow indicates studies that project crop yield decreases, blue indicates studies projecting increases This graphic shows observed examples of climate change worldwide. Scientists expect Northern Brazil may lose 22 per cent of its annual rainfall by 2100, while the area around Chile could get a 25 per cent increase

KEY POINTS FROM IPCC REPORT

Food shortages are expected to get worse

The report claims that increases in crop yields have slowed over the last 40 years.

Some studies now point to dramatic declines in some crops over the next 50 years – especially wheat and corn. Violent conflict may be triggered as a result Climate change will complicate and worsen existing global security problems, such as civil wars, strife between nations and refugees.

Fights over resources, like water and energy, hunger and extreme weather will all go into the mix to destabilise the world. The gap between the rich and the poor could widen Poor people are going to bear an unfair burden of climate change, the report said.

Climate change is going to exacerbate existing inequalities, and it is going to make it harder for people to fight their way out of poverty. Everyone will be affected This, the report claims, is because there are limits to how far society can adapt to climate change.

The only way is to cut emissions is act now and at the same time make plans to keep people out of harms' way when extreme weather strikes.

Mitigating climate change is tough by achievable The report notes that research on the effects of climate change has doubled since the last report in 2007.

The understanding about what needs to done to protect people from severe consequences has also improved dramatically.



It highlighted that in recent decades, Earth has seen changes in water resources as a result of melting glaciers and differences in rainfall, and reductions in wheat and maize yields.

There has been a decrease in the number of people dying from the cold but an increase in heat-related deaths in some areas, such as England and Wales, the report suggested.

Species including fish stocks are shifting their ranges, coral reefs are being damaged and wildfires are becoming more frequent.

Food security will be hit by reduced yields in the major crops of wheat, rice and maize, while climate change will also exacerbate existing health problems, and lead to more heat wave-related deaths, malnutrition and disease.

Increasing numbers of people are set to be displaced by extreme weather events, and the impacts of rising temperatures could help increase the risk of violent conflicts by worsening problems such as poverty, the report said.

Recent extremes such as heat waves, droughts, floods and wildfires show how vulnerable humans are to variations in climate, the study warned.

And the greater the rise in temperatures, the more likely the world is to see severe and widespread impacts, or even reach ‘tipping points’ which trigger abrupt and irreversible changes to the planet.

In the wake of the report's publication there were renewed calls from scientists and campaigners for action to cut greenhouse gases and to help vulnerable people adapt to already-unavoidable impacts of climate change.

‘We live in an era of man-made climate change,’ said Vicente Barros, co-chair of the IPCC study on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation, from the University of Buenos Aires, Argentina.

‘In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks that we already face. Investments in better preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the future.’

In Europe, there will be increased economic losses and more people affected by flooding in river basins and coasts, in the face of rising sea levels and heavy rainstorms.

Most of the flood damage can be avoided by measures such as flood defences, but the costs of increasing protection will be high.





Projected temperature change from 2081-2100. For the first time, the report connects hotter global temperatures to hotter global tempers. Top scientists are saying that climate change will complicate and worsen existing global security problems, such as civil wars, strife between nations and refugees

HOW IS CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTED TO AFFECT YOUR AREA?

Europe: The IPCC expects 'multiple stresses and systemic failures due to climate change' in the Mediterranean. This will increase energy costs and damage tourism from 2050.

North America: Flooding will be a major threat in this area with rain and storms moving north of New York. Southern areas are expected to experience a shortage of water.



Asia: The majority of the people directly affected by sea level rise will be in southern and eastern Asia. However, water is also expected to affect most of Asia.

Australasia: There remains uncertainty about impact in Australasia, but extreme weather is predicted. The Great Barrier Reef will continue to degrade, with warmer water bleaching more coral. Africa: Food security will be a major issue for Africa. Crops and livestock will be affected by both flooding and drought. There will also be more soil erosion from storms. Central and South America: Scientists expect Northern Brazil may lose 22 per cent of its annual rainfall by 2100, while the area around Chile could get a 25 per cent increase.

There will also be a reduction in water availability from rivers and groundwater, while increased heatwaves will damage human health and quality of life, crop production and increase air pollution and the risk of wildfires in southern Europe and parts of Russia.

Professor Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at University of East Anglia said: ‘The atmosphere and oceans are warming, the snow cover is shrinking, the Arctic sea ice is melting, sea levels are rising, the oceans are acidifying, some extreme weather events are on the rise, ecosystems and natural habitats will be upset.

‘Climate change threatens food security and world economies.

‘We need rapid and substantial cuts in carbon emissions and a move away from burning fossil fuels if we are to limit global climate change below two degrees and mitigate these impacts.'

Professor Sam Fankhauser, of the London School of Economics and a contributing author to the report added: ‘In the UK and the rest of northern Europe, we will need to cope with increasing risks from coastal and inland flooding, heat waves and droughts.

Observed temperature change from 1901-2012 is shown in the image. The greater the rise in temperatures, the more likely the world is to see severe and widespread impacts, or even reach 'tipping points' which trigger abrupt and irreversible changes to the planet, the report said

‘The UK and all rich countries must also provide significant support to help poor countries, which are particularly vulnerable, to cope with the impacts of climate change.’

The report, by more than 300 authors, informs policy decisions of governments around the world.

But one of its contributors has accused the IPCC of being too ‘alarmist’ – and demanded his name be withdrawn.

Professor Richard Tol, an economist at the University of Sussex, said the drafts had been changed to make the findings more ‘apocalyptic’.

He said colleagues ‘drifted too far to the alarmist side’ and were likening climate change to the ‘Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse’.

His section of the report, based on 18 economic studies, predicted in early drafts that global warming of 2.5°C would cut economic output by between 0.2 and 2 per cent a year – much less than the previous estimates of up to 20 per cent.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE WILL PUT THE HEAT ON GLOBAL CONFLICT

For the first time, the report connects hotter global temperatures to hotter global tempers. Top scientists are saying that climate change will complicate and worsen existing global security problems, such as civil wars, strife between nations and refugees.

They're not saying it will cause violence, but will be an added factor making things even more dangerous.

Fights over resources, like water and energy, hunger and extreme weather will all go into the mix to destabilise the world a bit more, says the report. For the past seven years, research in social science has found more links between climate and conflict, study authors say, with the full report referencing hundreds of studies on climate change and conflict. The U.S. Defense Department earlier this month in its once-every-four-years strategic review, called climate change a 'threat multiplier' to go with poverty, political instability and social tensions worldwide.

After the climate panel's 2007 report, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wrote that along with other causes, the conflict in the Darfur region of western Sudan 'began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change.'

While the IPCC report this year downplays global warming's role in that particular strife, saying other issues were far more influential, the report adds that there is justifiable common concern that climate change increases the risk of fighting in similar circumstances.



The rising risk of catastrophic events linked with rising temperatures is shown in this graphic

COULD EATING LESS MEAT AND DAIRY MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE?

Emissions from agriculture threaten to keep increasing as global meat and dairy consumption increases, according to a new study.

If agricultural emissions are not addressed, nitrous oxide from fields and methane from livestock may double by 2070. This alone would make meeting the climate target essentially impossible. 'We have shown that reducing meat and dairy consumption is key to bringing agricultural climate pollution down to safe levels," said Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden. 'Broad dietary change can take a long time. We should already be thinking about how we can make our food more climate friendly.' By 2050, estimates indicate that beef and lamb will account for half of all agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, while only contributing three per cent of human calorie intake. Cheese and other dairy products will account for about one quarter of total agricultural climate pollution.

But the final IPCC report labels his predictions ‘incomplete estimates’. It states: ‘Losses are more likely than not to be greater … than this range.’



Britain, among other nations, lobbied for this highly significant change.

On Friday, before final drafting discussions, the British government submitted a note faulting the draft.



It said: ‘The quoted figures of 0.2 to 2 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] are at best an underestimate, and at worst completely meaningless.’

Other governments including Belgium, France and Norway also complained.



But Chris Field, co-chair of the IPCC writers, last night dismissed criticism of the last-minute alteration and said the final report gave a ‘much clearer picture’.

Despite praising Professor Tol as a ‘wonderful scientist’, Professor Field of Stanford University, added: ‘There were a couple of meaningful errors in the way Richard had done his analysis.’

Mr Davey said: ‘The science has spoken … This evidence builds the case for early action … We cannot afford to wait.’

The report from the IPCC forms the second part of a wide-ranging review of the evidence surrounding climate change.

The first part of the ‘fifth assessment report’ which looked at the science of climate change, concluding there was a 95 per cent chance that humans were responsible for the majority of global warming, was published last year.

The second part of the study drew on contributions from hundreds of experts from 70 countries, and more than 1,700 expert and government reviewers.