“I think these regional patterns are the main takeaways for November,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “The suburbs here are becoming less strongly Republican even if they are on balance still Republican. The north and west is becoming more Republican, and that’s balancing the change within the state.”

Democratic primary boost

Karofsky was expected to do well because there wasn’t a contested Republican presidential primary and Democratic voter enthusiasm has surged since Trump was elected in 2016. Republicans had even considered moving the primary date to give Kelly a better chance.

But the Democratic primary mostly wrapped up in March as Biden collected endorsements from most of his rivals in a historically crowded field. And then the COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented campaigning and voting challenges with unpredictable effects on the outcome.

In the end, all of the variables added up to a Karofsky win, but political observers didn’t interpret that as a surefire sign that Biden will win Wisconsin in November.