Justin Trudeau’s Liberals swept all 25 of Toronto’s ridings en route to a majority win in 2015, and the party will need to do well in the city again on Monday in order to have a chance at remaining in government.

To achieve that, it needs to defend most — ideally all — of the suburban Toronto seats it won from Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, while simultaneously fending off a New Democrat resurgence downtown.

The website 338Canada, which projects riding-by-riding results based on available polls, has the Liberals as strong favourites in all but eight Toronto ridings, where party hopes rest on seven one-term incumbents and one newcomer.

Losing more than handful of these seats could tip the balance against another Trudeau government.

Here are the eight Toronto races to circle on election night:

Davenport

Why it’s worth watching: Liberal incumbent Julie Dzerowicz is defending her seat against New Democrat Andrew Cash, whom she beat in 2015. Dzerowicz is one in a slate of one-term incumbents at risk as Justin Trudeau’s party seeks to hold on to Toronto’s 25 ridings. Cash, a prominent opposition critic while he was in Parliament, is one of the NDP’s star candidates. Davenport was a longtime Liberal stronghold before Cash won it in 2011’s orange wave, becoming the only non-Liberal to hold the seat since the early 1960s.

Riding profile: Davenport, an arrowhead-shaped part of west-end Toronto between the GO train tracks in the west and Ossington Ave. in the east, includes some of Toronto’s more established neighbourhoods of first-, second- and third-generation European immigrants, particularly from Portugal. The riding includes new condos in the Junction Triangle, shopping and major transit lines on St. Clair Ave. W., Bloor and Dundas Sts., lots of post-industrial redevelopment near the rail lines and dense rows of relatively affordable (by downtown Toronto standards) semi-detached homes from the 1920s and 1930s. Household income is lower than in the city as a whole; affordability issues, such as housing, child care and pharmacare are likely to be important.

What to expect: Davenport is a toss up between Dzerowicz and Cash, according to the website 338Canada, which is projecting every race based on available polling. If Cash wins, expect the New Democrats to win at least one other seat in the city. If Dzerowicz holds, the Liberals are likely to do well.

Read about Davenport and meet the candidates in the riding.

Don Valley North

Why it’s worth watching: An open seat is rarely as comfortable as one held by an incumbent. Liberal candidate Han Dong, who won the nomination after MP Geng Tan did not run for re-election, was an MPP in the former downtown riding of Trinity-Spadina. He’s a seasoned candidate, but the riding’s Liberal character is hardly certain; while the riding didn’t exist in 2011, its residents elected Conservative MPs in that election. Entrepreneur Sarah Fischer is hoping to turn the area blue again.

Riding profile: One of the more suburban Toronto ridings, making up North York’s eastern quarter from Hwy. 401 to Steeles Ave. E. between Bayview and Victoria Park Aves., Don Valley North is split down the middle by the east branch of the Don River, with quiet tree-lined neighbourhoods of detached homes along the ravine. The areas near the Don Valley Parkway are denser, with more renters and a lower median income among the highrise towers on Don Mills Rd. The riding has a slightly below-average income compared to the city as a whole. The riding has a very large Chinese population, a community Dong has had success turning out in the past.

What to expect: The riding is likely to stay Liberal, according to 338Canada. A win for Fisher could be signal major national gains for the Conservatives.

Read about Don Valley North and meet the candidates in the riding.

Eglinton–Lawrence

Why it’s worth watching: High-profile Liberal incumbent Marco Mendicino is looking to hold on to one of Toronto’s ridings divided by income. Conservative activist Chani Aryeh is a well-known face in the riding’s large Jewish community, which played a role in turning the seat blue in the Harper years.

Riding profile: The Allen Road splits the two very different halves of Eglinton-Lawrence, which is bordered by Eglinton Ave W. to the south, Hwy. 401 to the north, train tracks to the west and Yonge St. on the east. The riding has a near average median income overall, but the divide is sharp, with neighbourhoods of very wealthy single-family homes east of the Allen, and denser and poorer communities to the west in the old city of York. The western half of the riding has a large number of recent immigrants, including a big Filipino population. The eastern half is home to a vibrant Jewish community, the second largest in the city after York Centre, and its members tend to turn out to vote. While the riding has only ever elected one Conservative — Joe Oliver was defeated by Mendicino in 2015 — it became progressively more blue over the Harper years.

What to expect: The riding is leaning Liberal, according to 338Canada. The Conservatives will have circled Eglinton-Lawrence as a winnable seat before the campaign began, so a loss here would be a disappointment.

Read about Eglinton-Lawrence and meet the candidates in the riding.

Parkdale—High Park

Why it’s worth watching: Single-term Liberal incumbent Arif Virani is in a close race with New Democrat newcomer Paul Taylor, a community organizer who’s aiming to take back the left-leaning riding for the NDP.

Riding profile: The area around High Park, with well-defined borders at the Humber River to the west, the lake to the south and rail lines to the north and east. The riding includes many streets of stately detached Victorian homes, a large community of mid-20th-century towers north of the park, the vibrant Junction and Roncesvalles neighbourhoods and the relatively low-income area around King St. W. that’s home to Toronto’s largest Tibetan community. The riding has a lower median income and is less diverse than the city as a whole, with the lowest percentage of visible minority residents of any Toronto riding.

What to expect: The riding is a toss up between Virani and Taylor, according to 338Canada. A win here and the Liberals may be on track to successfully hold nearly all of their Toronto seats.

Read about Parkdale-High Park and meet the candidates in the riding.

Scarborough-Agincourt

Why it’s worth watching: Tax expert Sean Hu is hoping to win a diverse riding that has never elected anyone other than a Liberal MP. Incumbent Jean Yip is herself a relative newcomer, having won a byelection in 2017 following the death of her husband and predecessor Arnold Chan.

Riding profile: The northwest chunk of Scarborough, north of Hwy. 401 between Victoria Park and Midland Aves. The riding is made up of large neighbourhoods of relatively modest mid-20th-century single-family suburbs with dense blocks of rental highrises where the major arteries meet. The riding has the greatest percentage of immigrants of any federal riding, with an absolute majority of residents born in Asia. Median income is lower than the city’s average and affordable housing may be a key issue in a riding that’s home to several Toronto Community Housing complexes, such as the Chester Le community and the towers at Sheppard Ave. E. and Birchmount. City Councillor Jim Karygiannis held the seat for the Liberals for nearly 26 years following the riding’s creation in 1988.

What to expect: The riding is leaning Liberal, according to 338Canada. A win for Hu would likely signal several lost seats for the Liberals.

Read about Scarborough-Agincourt and meet the candidates in the riding.

Toronto-Danforth

Why it’s worth watching: New Democrat Min Sook Lee has a chance to defeat Liberal incumbent Julie Dabrusin and regain the seat former NDP leader Jack Layton held from 2004 until his death. Lee, a documentary filmmaker, is running in part on Layton’s legacy, which is massive in the riding.

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Riding profile: Toronto-Danforth is the largely lowrise portion of the city between the Don Valley and Coxwell Ave., with Danforth Ave. and the subway cutting across the middle. The riding, which has large Greek and Chinese populations, contains much of East York, the Greektown neighbourhood, Leslieville and the Port Lands. It is somewhat less wealthy and less diverse overall than the city on average, with streetscapes ranging from mid-20th-century rental towers on Cosburn Ave., to tree-lined and kid-friendly blocks of semi-detached homes near Withrow Park, to hip and gentrifying communities along Queen St. E. and Eastern Ave. Lots of young children make child care a key issue, and huge numbers of TTC users may be looking at the parties’ infrastructure plans.

What to expect: Toronto-Danforth is a toss up between Lee and Dabrusin, according to 338Canada. The riding, the closest thing to a New Democrat stronghold in the city, is perhaps the most likely seat to return to the NDP, so it’s not necessarily the best bellwether of an orange wave. A Liberal win here would be a signal the party may hold off its rival on the left.

Read about Toronto-Danforth and meet the candidates in the riding.

York South—Weston

Why it’s worth watching: Liberal Ahmed Hussen, the incumbent minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, is defending his seat against New Democrat challenger Yafet Tewelde. Hussen may be the Liberals’ most-vulnerable Toronto cabinet minister.

Riding profile: This is the second-poorest riding in the city by median income after Toronto Centre. York South—Weston is bounded by Hwy. 401 to the north, the Humber River to the west and rail lines to the east and south, and contains several of the city’s designated neighbourhood improvement areas. The riding is largely made of streets with modest detached homes from the postwar period, blocks of rental towers along Weston Rd. and Jane St., several large Toronto Community Housing developments and swaths of industrial land. The riding has seen steadily high levels of immigration in recent decades and has large Jamaican, Portuguese, Filipino, Vietnamese and East African communities. In recent years, parts of the riding near Black Creek have been hid hard by flash flooding.

What to expect: The riding is leaning Liberal, according to 338Canada. A loss to the NDP here would be a sign of a very bad night for Trudeau’s party.

Read about York South-Weston and meet the candidates in the riding.

York Centre

Why it’s worth watching: Incumbent Michael Levitt is facing a stiff challenge in a Liberal stronghold that turned blue in the Harper years. Conservative candidate Rachel Willson's anti-abortion views may not prove to be a major issue in a riding that has large communities of religiously conservative voters.

Riding profile: The middle portion of North York, which is, itself, split down the centre by Downsview Park, Downsview Airport and a vast swath of industrial land stretching north from Hwy. 401 to the city limit at Steeles Ave. W. The residential landscape here is split between seas of relatively modest suburban homes divided by the mid- and highrise blocks that line arteries such as Bathurst St. and Finch Ave. W., with stretches of newer condo development on Wilson and Sheppard Aves. Although the riding includes one of the city’s wealthiest streets in Sandringham Dr., its median income is below average for Toronto. The riding includes Toronto’s largest Filipino community and a large Orthodox Jewish community that may be affected by the fact the election falls on the holiday of Shemini Atzeret, when observant Jews are not permitted to work or vote.

What to expect: The riding is leaning Liberal, according to 338Canada, but Willson is among the best Conservative bets to win a seat in the city; if she does, she likely won’t be alone.

Read about York Centre and meet the candidates in the riding.

Other ridings to watch:

Etobicoke Centre, where the Liberals are favoured to hold the seat Borys Wrzesnewskyj left open. Former provincial MPP Yvan Baker is favoured to beat Conservative Ted Opitz, who is seeking to regain the seat he held under Harper.

Etobicoke North, where Liberal Kirsty Duncan, the incumbent minister of Science and Sport, is heavily favoured to win against an all-female slate of competitors, which includes Renata Ford, the widow of former mayor Rob Ford, who is running a long-shot campaign for the People’s Party of Canada.

Scarborough Southwest, where Liberal Bill Blair, the former Toronto police chief and incumbent minister of border security and organized crime reduction, should hold his seat.

Toronto Centre, where a loss for Bill Morneau, the incumbent finance minister, would signal a disaster for the Trudeau’s Liberals.

Toronto—St. Paul’s, where Liberal Carolyn Bennett, the incumbent minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs, should easily retain a seat she has held since 1997.

University–Rosedale, where Liberal Chrystia Freeland, the incumbent foreign minister, is running and should win in all but her party’s worst-case scenarios.

Correction – Oct. 18, 2019: This article was edited from a previous version that mistakenly said University of Toronto professor Laurel MacDowell is the NDP candidate in Don Valley North.

Ed Tubb is an assignment editor and a contributor to the Star’s coverage of the 2019 federal election. He is based in Toronto. Follow him on Twitter: @edtubb

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