RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE AS CPC LEAD SHRINKS TO LESS THAN FIVE POINTS – June 10, 2010

DIRECTION OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TIES RECORD LOW POINT

[Ottawa – June 10, 2010] – In an often repeated pattern, we see the electorate gently recoiling after bestowing a large lead on the Conservative Party. This has produced a much tighter race. We are also seeing a continued decline in confidence in the direction of the federal government, which is now in sub-40 territory.

These patterns are clearly worrisome trends for the government. Although the Liberal Party continues to be stuck at very low levels, the recent trajectory for the Conservatives has seen them move out of the range where they were approaching a majority to a point where they no longer have even a comfortable margin of victory.

In addition to the downward trajectory of confidence in federal direction (which we have found to be a much stronger leading indicator than “leadership” measures), the regional patterns do not augur well for the Conservatives right now. The Liberals have regained a significant lead in the crucial Ontario arena and now lead in the Atlantic. Quebec remains a puzzling wasteland for federalist parties with no one doing well. Also of note is the continued strength of the Green Party which, at 12.6%, would actually begin to achieve seats.

This poll comes in the midst of growing chatter about coalitions. In some senses, this poll reinforces that movement by showing just how dramatically the centre and left vote in Canada is fragmented across 4 party options, which together attract nearly 70 percent of the electorate. On the other hand, the poll also shows that a Conservative march to victory in the next election is by no means a preordained inevitability and this recognition may take a bit of wind out of the sails of the coalition movements, which had a tinge of desperation fuelling them.

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