Analysis | 6 reasons why the Nashville transit referendum lost big

A controversial referendum on raising taxes to fund transit lost — and lost big — Tuesday despite backing from much of the city’s political establishment, including Mayor David Briley, an army of business heavyweights and the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce.

It’s now time for some Monday morning quarterbacking on where things went wrong on the proposal anchored by light rail.

Beyond judging the merits of the plan, here are six missteps, miscues and misfortunes that cost the city’s transit boosters and things the opposition did right.

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1. Muddled messaging

The Nashville for Transit coalition, steered by the public relations firm McNeely Pigott and Fox and other local consultants, started with a message of fighting traffic gridlock. Fair enough.

But as the campaign continued, supporters seemed to start throwing anything at the wall to see what would stick. They touted job creation, affordable housing that could grow from transit-oriented development, health and wellness of using transit and environmental benefits. Each might be true, but the hodgepodge of messages failed to create a compelling, coherent narrative that stuck on why to support transit.

Although proponents spent vastly more than the opposition on TV ads, the transit coalition’s proved less effective. By the end of the campaign, transit backers were decrying “dark money” from auto dealership magnate Lee Beaman and the opposition group NoTax4Tracks.

It seemed to be a move to rally a Democratic base around the transit project, but it wasn’t the type of message to persuade undecided voters to support raising taxes for transit.

The plan itself, which showed light rail lines stopping miles short of the county line, was a tough sell to neighborhoods outside the heavily gentrifying hot spots close to downtown.

Many Nashvillians couldn't see how the transit plan would benefit them.

Complicating optics was Metro government's current budget situation. At the same time Nashvillians were voting on a big-ticket transit project, the budget forecast showed a short supply of new revenue for schools and other basic government needs.

► More: Nashville transit plan a tough sell in neighborhoods near county line

2. Megan Barry’s scandal and resignation as mayor

Before Jan. 31, former Mayor Megan Barry was the most valuable asset for the transit cause. But when she admitted to a nearly two-year affair with her former police bodyguard, it changed everything.

There was perhaps no more devastating single event to the pro-transit campaign.

For several weeks as the Barry scandal grew, the pro side lost valuable time to build its message. It gave the opposition group NoTax4Tracks, which was late to organize, time to catch up. And that it did.

Special report: Inside the final 34 days before Megan Barry resigned

Barry, who had enjoyed approval ratings of greater than 70 percent, was poised to be the chief salesperson for the transit referendum, likely appearing in TV ads and using her celebrity status to reach new voters.

Instead, she resigned March 6, giving the baton to community leaders such as Criminal Court Clerk Howard Gentry, Davidson County Clerk Brenda Wynn and Briley, the former vice mayor, less than two months before the vote. None was as effective on the stump as a pre-scandal Barry would have been.

3. Proponents chose the wrong election

Barry and transit boosters had three elections to choose from to hold a public referendum this year — Tuesday's election, and two others set for August and November. They chose, and the Metro Council approved, what was historically the lowest turnout election of the bunch.

Their rationale seemed reasonable enough: Look to control turnout to the polls by identifying their backers and making sure they vote.

But in retrospect, the November general election would have been the better call.

The high-turnout November election will feature competitive races for U.S. Senate and Tennessee governor, driving significantly higher turnout among Democratic voters.

Republicans, who were more resistant to the transit vote, will have more ground to defend in November. In contrast, the May election cycle allowed conservatives to galvanize and rally around the single-issue referendum, making the transit vote balloon into a louder debate than it would have been in the fall.

More than 123,000 people voted in the referendum, far more than supporters had expected.

4. Jeff Eller and jeff carr

The temptation would have been for the NoTax4Tracks opposition group, funded by conservative donors such as Beaman, to wage a tea-party style campaign against the transit referendum. But it smartly chose not to, recognizing that wouldn’t work well in blue Davidson County.

Instead, it tapped Jeff Eller, a former Democratic consultant from Austin, Texas (previously from Nashville), who now works for mainly corporate clients.

Eller, who held past stints in former Nashville Mayor Bill Boner’s office and the White House under President Bill Clinton, was recruited back into Nashville politics by prominent attorney and friend Aubrey Harwell. Eller made the outreach of African-American voters a top goal, hammering above all the extra burden a sales tax increase hike would have on working families.

► More: Fight for black voters could swing Nashville transit referendum

Eller gave a lot of control to the Rev. jeff obafemi carr, an African-American community activist who impressed on the campaign trail and helped fine-tune the opposition’s message. carr, who uses lowercase letters in his name as a gesture of humility, is now among 12 candidates running against Briley for mayor.

5. Pro-transit campaign chamber heavy

The for-transit campaign, on the other hand, was very much the product of the chamber of commerce.

And in the end, it was probably wiser to take a different approach.

Rather than broadening support by running a traditional campaign boosted by small individual donors, the transit coalition chose to build its coffers almost exclusively with checks from large companies, firms and powerful institutions.

You don't turn down that money, of course. But it wasn’t the best way to build a broad coalition of supporters to fight for the project until the end.

It’s the second time the chamber has lost a major transit fight in Nashville. Four years ago, then-Mayor Karl Dean’s Amp project was derailed amid fierce opposition as well.

6. A rejection by many African-American voters

Heading into the campaign, the simplest way for the Nashville for Transit coalition to win would be to keep intact a coalition of Democratic voters in left-leaning Nashville.

That's the formula Barry used to defeat David Fox in the 2015 mayoral runoff election.

The transit coalition had widespread support among young voters and millennials, white educated liberals and organized labor, but evidence of a split emerged among African-American voters.

All four African-Americans among the top tier of mayoral candidates, including Rep. Harold Love Jr. and Councilwoman Erica Gilmore, each opposed the transit plan. Gilmore initially supported the proposal.

In other cities, black voters have typically backed transit projects. Although the numbers are still being crunched in Nashville’s race, it appears that the backing from African-American voters didn't come to fruition.

Most of the Metro Council districts with large black populations voted against the transit plan.

Reach Joey Garrison at jgarrison@tennessean.com or 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.