Mayor John Tory’s signature transit plan is facing an uncertain future under the new provincial government, with Premier Doug Ford’s Conservatives refusing so far to commit to a key policy that underpins the SmartTrack project.

In March, the former Liberal government pledged to lower the cost of GO Transit for trips within Toronto to $3 when using the Presto fare card, effectively cutting the cost of journeys within the city in half and pegging them to TTC prices.

Making GO travel within the city as cheap as the TTC was expected to boost GO ridership for short trips within Toronto by 10 to 15 per cent, according to Metrolinx, and Tory has described the policy as a “critical component” of SmartTrack, his plan to add six new stations to GO lines within Toronto.

The policy was to go into effect early next year, and cost $90 million over three years. But the Liberals said they intended to pay for it in part through proceeds of the cap-and-trade program, which Ford is scrapping.

At a news conference last Wednesday as part of his re-election campaign, Tory called on the Conservatives to preserve the policy.

He said the lower GO prices were a “major step forward in terms of choice and affordability for people using transit in the city of Toronto.

“And I know that the new government, the Ford government, places a real importance on keeping life affordable for Ontario residents, and so I am confident they will keep this initiative in place,” he said.

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Following the mayor’s comments, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Transportation took the unusual step of reaching out to the Star to clarify the province’s position on the matter.

In an email, spokesperson Gordan Rennie signalled the government had made no commitment on keeping the $3 fare policy. “The new government is currently looking at all means and considering all options when it comes to making transit more affordable,” Rennie wrote.

The most recent SmartTrack ridership projections published by the city estimated the six new stations on the Kitchener and Lakeshore East/Stouffville GO corridors would attract 33 million trips per year by 2041, 6.2 million of which would represent new riders to the city’s transit network. Those numbers were predicated on the lower fares, however.

A city spokesperson declined to speculate on what impact not lowering the fares would have on SmartTrack ridership, but Eric Miller, director of the University of Toronto Transportation Research Institute, said the effect is simple to predict.

“If you raise fares, fewer people use the service. It’s pretty basic economics,” he said.

Miller analyzed SmartTrack’s potential ridership for a city report published in 2016, and found it would attract significant numbers of passengers. The plan has changed considerably since then, including being whittled down from Tory’s original promise of 22 “new” stations to just six.

According to Miller, the six-station version of SmartTrack would still be “well worthwhile” if the fares were set at the current higher GO fares. But he warned “if you keep it at GO fares, it’s going to underperform relative to what it could. You’re not getting the best out of your system.”

There is still plenty of time before SmartTrack is complete for lower GO fares to be implemented. The new SmartTrack stations aren’t expected to be complete until 2024 at the earliest.

But council voted in April to spend up to $1.46 billion on the stops, and work is proceeding. A city spokesperson said roughly $20 million has already been spent on the planning, design, and engineering for the new stations.

A spokesperson for Tory wouldn’t answer directly when asked whether the city should continue investing in SmartTrack with no guarantee of the lower fares.

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“We have an agreement with the provincial government and Metrolinx to reduce GO fares in the city of Toronto by roughly half and the mayor has and will continue to urge the government to confirm that fare reduction on the basis that it promotes transit use, reduces congestion and helps make life more affordable,” wrote Daniela Magisano.

In an emailed statement, mayoral candidate Jennifer Keesmaat called on the province to “honour” the $3 GO fare promise. “A Toronto and GTA where people can get around quickly and affordably is critical to our economy,” she said.

The opposition NDP also urged Ford to follow through with the plan. University-Rosedale MPP Jessica Bell said cancelling the policy would “take money right out of the hands of transit riders every day” and exacerbate crowding on the TTC.

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