The sky? She is falling. Nintendo has taken a beating in the first half of the year, and for the first time in six years the company is projecting its earnings to fall. The ?64.59 billion ($709.3 million) the company earned in the April to September is a 52 percent drop from the same period last year, when the company posted profits of ?144.83 billion ($1.59 billion).

So what's going to happen now? The Japanese company is going to have to lower its gaze and fight in the trenches, as analysts expect at least one more big hit to drive profits before the holidays, but no one believes that sales will ever be able to match the highs Nintendo has experienced in the past years.

The ride couldn't last forever

"It is unrealistic for any company in the entertainment industry to believe they can sustain aggressive growth," Jesse Divnich, director of Analyst Services for Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) told Ars. "The appetites of consumers change too frequently when it comes to how we entertain ourselves. The same pace at which an entertainment product can grow is the same pace at which the product can retract."

We've already seen the Nintendo Wii fall from its lofty heights in the United States. Last month the PlayStation 3 outsold the Wii by 29,000 units, an achievement that would have been surreal even six months ago. The Nintendo DS was still the number one selling piece of hardware, but only by 32,400 units.

It's not much better worldwide. "Nintendo, which did not break down quarterly numbers, said it sold 5.75 million Wii machines around the world during the period, far short of the more than 10 million sold for the same six months last year," the Associated Press reported.

How will the price drop affect sales? "We already saw unit sales of the Wii increase substantially in September, so yes, consumers do react to price drops. The question is how long it will impact sales," NPD Group analyst Anita Frazier told Ars. "Looking historically at price drops across a multitude of hardware platforms, there is a wide variance in the sales impact." She does note that $200 is a great psychological price point for consumers.

Divnich claims that Nintendo's success was more than impressive, it was a once-in-a-lifetime event; sales may be buoyed by the price drop, but they'll never reach 2008 levels again. "And that's not to slight Nintendo, I'm just saying that Nintendo's success in 2008 was so massive that it is unlikely anyone will ever be able to repeat it."

Nintendo's secret weapon? New Super Mario Bros. Wii

Nintendo may sound like it's in trouble, but it has one very large advantage coming into this holiday season: a new Mario Bros. title.

Nintendo has claimed the first half of its fiscal year was light on hits, but Frazier points out that this was an industry-wide problem: there just haven't been many monster hits in the past months. "That said, not only should New Super Mario Bros. Wii sell extremely well, but big hits from other publishers (notably MW2) should help improve industry results." It may not be enough to match last year's sales, but she expects a marked improvement in sales coming in the next few months.

Divnich has some bold predictions for New Super Mario Bros. Wii as well. "The New Super Mario Bros. for the Wii will be the best selling game this holiday season, it will even outsell the Xbox 360 version of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2," he told Ars. "That is how big of a release this will be. Typically, just one game can't make a difference, but this would be an exception, as New Super Mario Bros will be a large catalyst for hardware and accessory sales for the Nintendo Wii." He puts lifetime sales at over 17 million units, which would make it a hit on the scope of Nintendo's past large successes such as Mario Kart, Wii Fit, and Wii Play.

Our prediction? New Super Mario Bros. Wii is going to be huge. Anecdotes abound: relatives are calling about the game, a story simply featuring a trailer for the game brought in huge traffic, and every time we write about the game the comment thread basically turns into people saying they're either going to buy it or they already have a preorder in. Every sign points to the game becoming a monster, and Nintendo has to be looking forward to its release on November 15 in the US.

What does this mean for Nintendo moving forward?

Everyone seems to agree Nintendo won't be able to match the numbers posted in the first few years of sales for either the Wii or the Nintendo DS, and it's unlikely we'll see a system come close to that level of sustained sales or buzz in the next few generations. Nintendo may be forced to try harder with games and accessories in the coming year, and that's good news for gamers looking for more franchise and AAA titles coming to the system.

After all, sales may be dropping for Nintendo, but that means the company is only very successful, instead of amazingly profitable. Somehow, they may have to learn to live with only being #1 by a smaller margin.