What are the chances of joining the growing list of states where marijuana, medicinal or recreational, is available? Well, like most everything, it depends on whom you talk to.

In 1996, California was the first state to legalize marijuana use of any kind when it allowed its citizens access to the drug for medical purposes. Since then, 19 other states and the District of Columbia have followed suit in enacting laws to allow physicians to prescribe pot as a legal alternative to prescription drugs when they believe it's warranted.



On Jan. 1 of this year, Colorado undertook one of the nation's most grand social experiments when the sale of marijuana for recreational use became law.



Just more than 55 percent of voters in the state passed Colorado Amendment 64 in November 2012, which allows individuals to possess up to 1 ounce of marijuana. People also can grow up to six marijuana plants in a private space, but smoking pot in public still is prohibited. Washington will follow suit later this year when it begins to allow the sale of marijuana for recreational use.



If they are to be judged by the results of some recent polls, Americans appear to be more open-minded when it comes to allowing the use of marijuana, or cannabis, for medical purposes or even the outright legalization of it.



WILL OHIO JOIN IN?



In a CNN/ORC International survey released last week, 55 percent of Americans support legalizing marijuana. Those numbers are up from a similar poll two years ago, when 43 percent favored the legalization of pot. More telling, perhaps, is that 35 percent of respondents said smoking pot is morally wrong. That percentage has been halved since 1987.



With that backdrop, what are the chances of Ohio joining the growing list of states where marijuana, medicinal or recreational, is available?



Well, like most everything, it depends on who you talk to.



One local state representative doesn't see much happening, either in the statehouse or if the issue was ever put to Ohio voters.



"Every state has a different personality and Ohio has always been more conservative in these areas than other states," Rep. Kirk Schuring, R-Jackson Township, said last week. "Even if it was taken to the people through the initiative petition process, I don't think it would prevail. I definitely don't think it will see the light of day in the general assembly.



"It might stand a better chance if it went to the ballot, but even then I don't think it would pass."



Voters in the state may get a chance to prove Schuring right, or wrong, if either of two statewide petitions reach the ballot. The Ohio Alternate Treatment Amendment and the Ohio Cannabis Rights Amendment are ballot initiatives aimed at making medicinal marijuana legal in Ohio. The latter is headed by an organization called the Ohio Rights Group.



Roughly 385,000 signatures are needed by the sponsors of either petition to get the issue on the 2014 ballot. Three prior ballot issues have been cleared by Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine since 2011, but have stalled before reaching the ballot.



Rob Ryan, president of Ohio NORML (National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws), has an idea what would happen if either of the two initiatives reach Ohio voters.



"They're each a little bit different but, overall, if either one of them make it onto the ballot, it would pass," Ryan said. "There is no doubt in my mind. I would bet a year's salary on that."



State Rep. Bob Hagan, D-Youngstown, introduced House Bill 153 last year that would allow seriously ill patients to grow and use marijuana. The bill received a committee hearing last May but has not been scheduled for a second hearing by the Health and Aging Committee.



"Something has been introduced each of the last four legislative sessions and each time it's never really had a chance," Ryan said. "Someone always quashes it."



OHIOANS CAUTIOUS



Proponents of medical marijuana point to studies showing the drug helps individuals diagnosed with everything from glaucoma to cancer. Some studies have shown the drug helps alleviate epileptic seizures in children. The website ProCon.org cites 105 studies done on marijuana's effects on individuals with severe neuropathic pain, multiple sclerosis, cancer-related pain and other symptoms related to chronic pain. Of those, 41 resulted in a positive effect, 33 were labeled "con" and 31 were not clearly pro or con as to the drug's effect.



Even with the positive outcomes, the muddled results are one primary reason legislators like Schuring are still pessimistic about even medical marijuana use.



"In many respects, when it comes to a variety of issues, we (Ohio) have been more cautious," Schuring said. "We like to have solid information and right now I don't think there is that empirical base of information that would suggest marijuana has the medicinal qualities that some would claim."



Research on marijuana's possible benefits has been complicated by its status since 1970 as a schedule 1 drug — one that has a high potential for abuse, a lack of accepted safety and no currently accepted medical use — in the eyes of the federal government.



Still, the rise in support for it in national polls leads Ryan to believe that states won't be able to ignore the issue forever.



"It crossed that 50 percent mark a couple years ago and every single poll afterward has only repeated that, and the numbers are only increasing," Ryan said.



The bottom line in Ryan's mind is just that — the bottom line. Bloomberg News estimated that marijuana sales in Colorado may bring in close to $570 million this year. Retail sales have a 25 percent state excise tax, along with a sales tax of 2.9 percent. Given the belt-tightening going on around the nation, an extra $100 million or so in tax revenue might look good to some states in a couple years.



"The amount of tax money they generated that first week in Colorado, I think eventually they're going to realize 'My God, we should cash this in,'" Ryan said. "They're going to come to the realization that they're going to be able to benefit tax-wise. All these state governments are strapped. What are we doing? We're in this prohibition, part two, period.



"Quite frankly, I think the Republicans are missing the boat since they're in control. They should take Bob Hagan's bill, put a comma here, a period there and have someone else introduce it and have Gov. Kasich sign it. Tax it, regulate it, control it, put the product labels on it and get it out of the black market."



Reach David at 330-775-1129

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