The Race for Governor

Democratic Side

It’s funny to me how after a campaign is over, it seems so obvious in retrospect how things were going to go. It was very clear that Rocky Adkins was depending on his roots in Eastern Kentucky, Adam Edelen was focused on urban areas (especially Louisville), and Andy Beshear was banking on voters familiar with his record and name to carry the day. In the end, voters went with Andy Beshear by a fairly healthy margin, despite Rocky Adkins running well in Eastern Kentucky and Adam Edelen making a heavy dent in Louisville and Lexington.

County breakdown in Democratic Gubernatorial Primary 2019 (map by Robert Kahne)

When we wrote about which candidates would earn our vote, I said that Andy Beshear needed to show my why he wants to be Governor. Throughout the campaign, the theme of his which seemed to resonate most strongly was his emphasis on how he has actually used his office to accomplish things for Kentucky. And he’s got a good point! His work in the Attorney General’s office is perhaps the only place where progress has been made in the past 4 years. Running by saying “I know how to do things, and Matt Bevin clearly doesn’t” definitely has the potential to be a winning message. One thing that shouldn’t be forgotten is that Andy Beshear was on the ballot in his own right in 2015, which was a horrible year for Democrats. He defeated a competent and savvy opponent in Whitney Westerfield, even while Matt Bevin was cruising to a big win in the Governor’s race. Do you really think that Matt Bevin in 2019 will be a better candidate that Westerfield was in 2015?

When looking at the places where Andy Beshear earned and lost votes, I think he is well positioned to win in November. I fully expect most, if not all of the vote in Eastern Kentucky he lost to Rocky Adkins in the primary to come in for him – especially given how soft the Governor’s support was in that region. He did surprisingly well in the urban centers, beating Edelen handily in both Louisville and Lexington. I think there is significantly more vote that can be activated for Democrats in Kentucky’s urban centers, especially in south and west Louisville, if Andy Beshear runs a good campaign. Here’s hoping he does that.

Republican Side

Very few people expected the Republican side of the primary election to be competitive. Incumbents very rarely have trouble dispatching challengers, especially if they aren’t very well known (Robert Goforth has served for just two years in the legislature). Matt Bevin walked away from Tuesday with only 52% of the vote – if this were a different state, we might have been looking at a run off! The only way to view the Republican primary is as a major repudiation for the Governor.

County breakdown in Republican Gubernatorial Primary 2019 (map by Robert Kahne)

But will that matter? Matt Bevin won in 2015 by a 9 point margin, so he can stand to lose a lot of the vote that he won last time and still pull out a victory. Most of the counties lost by Matt Bevin in this primary are strongly Republican – many of them are places won even by Republican Gubernatorial nominee David Williams in 2011 (when he lost by 20 points). It stands to reason that much of the area in southeast Kentucky that Bevin lost will vote for him in November.

Much more intriguing is the fact that Bevin lost Republicans in the mountains. Every county along the West Virginia border (save for Boyd and Greenup, which were still very tight) was won by Robert Goforth. Historically, this has been some of the most Democratic territory in the state – but the nationalization of politics has meant that Republicans have been able to win here recently. However, it seems that Republicans in Eastern Kentucky are fed up with Bevin, which to me means that Andy Beshear is primed to win this area of the state, especially if Rocky Adkins keeps his promise to be active in the general election.

Matt Bevin is in real trouble, but Kentucky is a conservative state and Donald Trump will almost certainly visit multiple times. That might make a difference, and it might not – Matt Bevin has made a lot of bad news in his own right recently, and I doubt that will be forgotten by voters, even if he has the support of the President.

Down Ballot Races

Of course, Kentucky nominated a bunch more people for office besides Andy Beshear and Matt Bevin. There were some surprises and some impressive totals, but, like most years, the top of the ticket will have a massive impact on who wins these races. But, in every election since 2003, at least one candidate from the party who lost the Governor’s race won a down ballot race.

Attorney General

The race for Attorney General will be a doozy this year. Greg Stumbo, the scion of Kentucky politics, will be facing off against Daniel Cameron, a former University of Louisville football player and Mitch McConnell staffer. Republicans will certainly try to paint Stumbo as old and corrupt – a relic of a past age. But, given how Republicans have governed for the past 3 years, Kentuckians might be a bit wistful for that past age.

A fun game is to say “Greg Stumbo” to a Republican in Kentucky and see how mad they get. It’s kind of impressive how much they hate the former Attorney General and Speaker of the House, mostly because of his ability to hold together a declining Democratic caucus while Republicans were certainly on the upswing. But, I don’t think much (if any) of the vitriol resonated with voters in 2019. If anything, voters probably remember him rooting out the corruption of the Fletcher administration.

I fully expect this office to go right along with the winner of the Governor’s race. If voters are in a Democratic mood, they will vote in Stumbo, and if they want to return Bevin to the Governor’s mansion, Cameron will be our next AG.

Secretary of State

Heather French Henry will face off against Michael Adams in the race to replace Alison Lundergan Grimes. Both candidates pulled off victories where they won the vast majority of counties, but Ms. Henry’s victory was much more overwhelming – she won 119 counties and got more than 70% of the vote. She received more votes on election day than any other candidate by more than 45,000 votes. Mr. Adams similarly won 114 counties, but the electorate was much more divided, and he “only” won 41% of the vote in a four-way primary.

Heather French Henry’s name will be tough to beat in the fall. There are parts of Ms. Henry’s past, including her husband’s former gubernatorial campaign that ended in $10,000 in fines to the candidate, which could be fodder for attacks. However, I do not see them gaining any traction in a downballot race. If Republicans do manage to pull out a victory in the fall, I think Ms. Henry will be the Democrat most likely to keep an office in Democratic hands.

Auditor

The Auditor’s race will see incumbent Mike Harmon take on Sheri Donahue, who defeated two other Democrats on Tuesday. There is a saying nowadays that “Twitter isn’t real” (mostly said among people already on Twitter). Social networks and conversation online isn’t truly indicative of the attitude of voters – and that was truly born out in this primary. Ms. Donahue has about 1,200 subscribers to her page on Facebook and 716 followers on Twitter. Kelsey Hayes Coots has three times as many subscribers on Facebook, and ten times as many followers on Twitter. Despite this, Ms. Donahue got 30,000 more votes than Ms. Hayes Coots and won 80 counties to her 40.

Clearly Ms. Donahue is a good campaigner – she was within 4,000 votes of knocking off Senate Majority Caucus Chair Julie Raque Adams, and defeated Gay Adelmann handily in the Democratic primary last year. I have to be honest — I didn’t think Ms. Donahue was going to win either primary where she has won now, and I didn’t expect her to get so close to winning last November. I’m done doubting Sheri Donahue – I would not be surprised in the slightest if she knocks off Mike Harmon, especially if Andy Beshear wins at the top of the ticket.

Treasurer

Michael Bowman won the Democratic primary against Josh Mers and will be facing off incumbent Allison Ball in the fall. Bowman won a resounding victory, receiving 66% of the vote and earning more votes than all candidates except Heather French Henry. Like the Auditor’s race, I was somewhat surprised by this – Mr. Mers is someone I know personally and I thought he was running a good race. I’m not totally sure what the difference was in this race – both candidates were well qualified, good speakers, and were both running hard for the office. Most voters chose Mr. Bowman, and other campaigns might benefit from studying why he was so successful.

What does the Treasurer do? Many people have suggested the job should be subsumed into the Finance Cabinet. Allison Ball is the first Republican to hold the office of Treasurer in a long time, but her tenure might be cut short if Matt Bevin fares poorly in November.

Secretary of Agriculture

Robert Haley Conway won the Democratic Primary for the Agriculture Commissioner job, defeating Joe Trigg by a wide margin. The Agriculture Commissioner’s job has been in the hands of the GOP since 2003 – by far the office the GOP has had the most success winning this century. Incumbent Ryan Quarles is a very good campaigner, and his victory for a House seat in 2010 was one of the first blows struck by the GOP during this decade’s battle for the legislature which has resulted in their current supermajority.

Conway is the first Democrat running for this seat in a long time who appears competent. The questionnaires he’s filled out do show that he has good knowledge about agricultural issues and would do a good job as Agriculture Commissioner. However, Quarles is the one candidate besides Matt Bevin in this race who has a meaningful record to run on (hemp), and even if Democrats do very well in November, it may be Ryan Quarles that keeps an office in the hands of a Republican.

(Editor’s note: This excellent analysis came right from the “My Old Kentucky Podcast” newsletter. If you’re not subscribed to it, you need to be. Go to our newsletter page to sign up!)

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