The season may be over, but if you listen to Timbers Owner Merritt Paulson, GM Gavin Wilkinson, and Head Coach Caleb Porter, the project is only just beginning.

You could forgive Timbers fans (because of emotional connection) or casual MLS fans (who don’t follow the team beyond the standings) for thinking that this year has been a total disaster for the Portland Timbers and major changes are needed. If the story was as simple as: in 2013 Portland finished first in the Western Conference in the regular season and reached the Conference Finals in the playoffs, but in 2014 they were eliminated from CCL and failed to reach the playoffs, then maybe it would be a disaster. But the story isn’t that simple.

Patience in Portland

Since hiring Caleb Porter after the 2012 season, the Timbers have been clear that this is about a long term project. Think back to their recent press conference announcing the USL-Pro Timbers 2 team (or read about it here). The constant narrative has been about setting the club up for a successful future, building the foundation.

In some ways, maybe the Timbers did themselves a disservice by being too good in 2013. Had they simply gone from being abysmal in 2012 to average in 2013, it would’ve been seen as progress. Then, this year would have been another step in the right direction. Instead, 2013 was a year in which everything went perfectly. Donovan Ricketts, always capable of the miraculous, yet usually inconsistent, was phenomenal for the entire year. The back line, held together by Pa Modou Kah and either Footy Danso or Andrew Jean-Baptiste was solid, helping the Timbers concede the 2nd fewest goals in the league. Offensively, a number of players had career years.

2014 was a different story. While he wasn’t bad, Ricketts was nowhere near his 2013 version for most of the year. He, like the rest of the team, came on strong at the end, but it wasn’t enough. The back line was a disaster for much of the year. Kah simply fell apart, transforming from rock solid CB to disaster waiting to happen. Offseason signing Norberto Paparatto, brought in to solidify the backline alongside Kah, had a disastrous start. He too improved as the year went on, but never fulfilled expectations. Rodney Wallace spent the first half of the year working back to form after an ACL injury in the 2013 playoffs, and Darlington Nagbe scored his lone goal of the MLS season in the finale. Prior to the addition of Fanendo Adi, the Timbers struggled, lacking a physical presence at forward. The loss of Ryan Johnson hurt more than they probably expected, and it cost them games early.

In baseball, there’s the cliché that “you can’t win the division in April, but can lose it.” The Timbers learned that lesson the hard way in 2014. After beginning the year 0-3-5, Portland went 12-6-8 in their final 26 matches, earning 44 points along the way. Their 1.7 points per game over their last 26 matches would be good enough for 3rd place in the West and 4th in MLS this season.

Portland finished the season with a goal differential of +9, the highest in MLS history for a team that failed to make the playoffs. They finished 5-1-3 in their last 9 games, including three consecutive shutouts to end the season. Proving that defense really was their achilles heel, Portland scored 61 goals in 2014, good for 3rd most in MLS, and seven more than in 2013 when they finished first in the Western Conference. They also earned the second-most road wins in MLS, going an impressive 7-6-4 on the road.

Should the Timbers be disappointed at missing the playoffs? Absolutely. Are changes needed this offseason? Certainly, and some may even be forced by the loss of allocation money associated with Champions League participation. Should failing to advance in the CCL and make the playoffs lead to the Timbers blowing everything up and rebuilding? NO.

Changes are needed. Improvements must be made. Players will leave and additions are needed to fill holes. But, the way the Timbers played after their disastrous start, nearly recovering to make the playoffs, should be all the proof that is needed that this team is headed in the right direction. With the right additions (we’ll take a look at what’s needed in upcoming pieces), some tactical adjustments, and the continued development of young players in Caleb Porter’s system, Portland should absolutely be a playoff contender again in 2015.

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