A greater share of Americans filed for unemployment insurance in the week ending March 21 than in any prior week in American history, according to our analysis of news reports.

Many states reported initial claims growth of over 1,000%. Our model predicts that 3.4 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment insurance this past week, although we believe that number could be as low as 3 million or could be substantially higher. This will dwarf every other week in history, as can be seen by comparing the projection against the trend in initial claims back to 1967 (Figure A).

Figure A The U.S. is experiencing a record-breaking spike in unemployment : Initial weekly unemployment claims since 1967 and projected claims for the week ending March 21, 2020 Week ending date Initial claims, seasonally adjusted Projected claims, week ending March 21, 2020 1967-01-07 208000 1967-01-14 207000 1967-01-21 217000 1967-01-28 204000 1967-02-04 216000 1967-02-11 229000 1967-02-18 229000 1967-02-25 242000 1967-03-04 310000 1967-03-11 241000 1967-03-18 245000 1967-03-25 247000 1967-04-01 259000 1967-04-08 257000 1967-04-15 299000 1967-04-22 245000 1967-04-29 255000 1967-05-06 254000 1967-05-13 231000 1967-05-20 230000 1967-05-27 228000 1967-06-03 248000 1967-06-10 238000 1967-06-17 224000 1967-06-24 218000 1967-07-01 209000 1967-07-08 240000 1967-07-15 241000 1967-07-22 240000 1967-07-29 209000 1967-08-05 221000 1967-08-12 202000 1967-08-19 215000 1967-08-26 213000 1967-09-02 218000 1967-09-09 231000 1967-09-16 220000 1967-09-23 209000 1967-09-30 204000 1967-10-07 231000 1967-10-14 206000 1967-10-21 223000 1967-10-28 207000 1967-11-04 222000 1967-11-11 214000 1967-11-18 198000 1967-11-25 191000 1967-12-02 196000 1967-12-09 221000 1967-12-16 204000 1967-12-23 219000 1967-12-30 216000 1968-01-06 222000 1968-01-13 222000 1968-01-20 221000 1968-01-27 198000 1968-02-03 244000 1968-02-10 210000 1968-02-17 196000 1968-02-24 193000 1968-03-02 190000 1968-03-09 204000 1968-03-16 190000 1968-03-23 200000 1968-03-30 192000 1968-04-06 191000 1968-04-13 171000 1968-04-20 183000 1968-04-27 251000 1968-05-04 209000 1968-05-11 194000 1968-05-18 199000 1968-05-25 194000 1968-06-01 199000 1968-06-08 192000 1968-06-15 194000 1968-06-22 189000 1968-06-29 194000 1968-07-06 214000 1968-07-13 186000 1968-07-20 180000 1968-07-27 205000 1968-08-03 206000 1968-08-10 218000 1968-08-17 192000 1968-08-24 193000 1968-08-31 188000 1968-09-07 189000 1968-09-14 195000 1968-09-21 191000 1968-09-28 189000 1968-10-05 185000 1968-10-12 186000 1968-10-19 191000 1968-10-26 182000 1968-11-02 181000 1968-11-09 183000 1968-11-16 192000 1968-11-23 199000 1968-11-30 162000 1968-12-07 188000 1968-12-14 195000 1968-12-21 192000 1968-12-28 223000 1969-01-04 190000 1969-01-11 191000 1969-01-18 192000 1969-01-25 193000 1969-02-01 203000 1969-02-08 197000 1969-02-15 192000 1969-02-22 192000 1969-03-01 201000 1969-03-08 191000 1969-03-15 189000 1969-03-22 181000 1969-03-29 183000 1969-04-05 182000 1969-04-12 190000 1969-04-19 187000 1969-04-26 177000 1969-05-03 177000 1969-05-10 183000 1969-05-17 179000 1969-05-24 180000 1969-05-31 187000 1969-06-07 192000 1969-06-14 182000 1969-06-21 191000 1969-06-28 203000 1969-07-05 227000 1969-07-12 210000 1969-07-19 206000 1969-07-26 192000 1969-08-02 196000 1969-08-09 203000 1969-08-16 199000 1969-08-23 199000 1969-08-30 195000 1969-09-06 182000 1969-09-13 209000 1969-09-20 195000 1969-09-27 193000 1969-10-04 193000 1969-10-11 200000 1969-10-18 199000 1969-10-25 205000 1969-11-01 198000 1969-11-08 211000 1969-11-15 197000 1969-11-22 217000 1969-11-29 202000 1969-12-06 202000 1969-12-13 222000 1969-12-20 232000 1969-12-27 223000 1970-01-03 230000 1970-01-10 242000 1970-01-17 268000 1970-01-24 256000 1970-01-31 239000 1970-02-07 256000 1970-02-14 265000 1970-02-21 271000 1970-02-28 242000 1970-03-07 262000 1970-03-14 271000 1970-03-21 264000 1970-03-28 276000 1970-04-04 273000 1970-04-11 305000 1970-04-18 374000 1970-04-25 349000 1970-05-02 334000 1970-05-09 318000 1970-05-16 303000 1970-05-23 296000 1970-05-30 301000 1970-06-06 301000 1970-06-13 298000 1970-06-20 296000 1970-06-27 291000 1970-07-04 277000 1970-07-11 288000 1970-07-18 294000 1970-07-25 287000 1970-08-01 261000 1970-08-08 266000 1970-08-15 300000 1970-08-22 303000 1970-08-29 297000 1970-09-05 324000 1970-09-12 292000 1970-09-19 325000 1970-09-26 333000 1970-10-03 350000 1970-10-10 327000 1970-10-17 334000 1970-10-24 330000 1970-10-31 327000 1970-11-07 336000 1970-11-14 314000 1970-11-21 314000 1970-11-28 337000 1970-12-05 308000 1970-12-12 306000 1970-12-19 289000 1970-12-26 321000 1971-01-02 303000 1971-01-09 288000 1971-01-16 299000 1971-01-23 312000 1971-01-30 292000 1971-02-06 296000 1971-02-13 282000 1971-02-20 268000 1971-02-27 290000 1971-03-06 297000 1971-03-13 287000 1971-03-20 291000 1971-03-27 300000 1971-04-03 299000 1971-04-10 279000 1971-04-17 284000 1971-04-24 288000 1971-05-01 290000 1971-05-08 293000 1971-05-15 284000 1971-05-22 295000 1971-05-29 299000 1971-06-05 301000 1971-06-12 295000 1971-06-19 299000 1971-06-26 291000 1971-07-03 277000 1971-07-10 264000 1971-07-17 313000 1971-07-24 304000 1971-07-31 308000 1971-08-07 349000 1971-08-14 325000 1971-08-21 320000 1971-08-28 307000 1971-09-04 359000 1971-09-11 312000 1971-09-18 302000 1971-09-25 308000 1971-10-02 299000 1971-10-09 313000 1971-10-16 299000 1971-10-23 294000 1971-10-30 283000 1971-11-06 301000 1971-11-13 295000 1971-11-20 274000 1971-11-27 278000 1971-12-04 299000 1971-12-11 280000 1971-12-18 269000 1971-12-25 244000 1972-01-01 279000 1972-01-08 295000 1972-01-15 250000 1972-01-22 263000 1972-01-29 269000 1972-02-05 276000 1972-02-12 266000 1972-02-19 258000 1972-02-26 254000 1972-03-04 257000 1972-03-11 264000 1972-03-18 266000 1972-03-25 264000 1972-04-01 258000 1972-04-08 274000 1972-04-15 259000 1972-04-22 259000 1972-04-29 265000 1972-05-06 271000 1972-05-13 266000 1972-05-20 267000 1972-05-27 267000 1972-06-03 264000 1972-06-10 268000 1972-06-17 275000 1972-06-24 286000 1972-07-01 350000 1972-07-08 297000 1972-07-15 318000 1972-07-22 276000 1972-07-29 247000 1972-08-05 250000 1972-08-12 246000 1972-08-19 256000 1972-08-26 262000 1972-09-02 258000 1972-09-09 259000 1972-09-16 258000 1972-09-23 255000 1972-09-30 251000 1972-10-07 263000 1972-10-14 250000 1972-10-21 257000 1972-10-28 234000 1972-11-04 255000 1972-11-11 242000 1972-11-18 271000 1972-11-25 235000 1972-12-02 226000 1972-12-09 252000 1972-12-16 263000 1972-12-23 246000 1972-12-30 225000 1973-01-06 226000 1973-01-13 245000 1973-01-20 229000 1973-01-27 214000 1973-02-03 228000 1973-02-10 226000 1973-02-17 216000 1973-02-24 218000 1973-03-03 225000 1973-03-10 229000 1973-03-17 228000 1973-03-24 232000 1973-03-31 222000 1973-04-07 247000 1973-04-14 230000 1973-04-21 243000 1973-04-28 236000 1973-05-05 248000 1973-05-12 238000 1973-05-19 237000 1973-05-26 238000 1973-06-02 232000 1973-06-09 246000 1973-06-16 237000 1973-06-23 242000 1973-06-30 237000 1973-07-07 248000 1973-07-14 232000 1973-07-21 241000 1973-07-28 250000 1973-08-04 256000 1973-08-11 265000 1973-08-18 258000 1973-08-25 254000 1973-09-01 242000 1973-09-08 252000 1973-09-15 245000 1973-09-22 246000 1973-09-29 249000 1973-10-06 236000 1973-10-13 246000 1973-10-20 249000 1973-10-27 235000 1973-11-03 246000 1973-11-10 282000 1973-11-17 254000 1973-11-24 233000 1973-12-01 256000 1973-12-08 266000 1973-12-15 272000 1973-12-22 326000 1973-12-29 300000 1974-01-05 269000 1974-01-12 340000 1974-01-19 321000 1974-01-26 291000 1974-02-02 302000 1974-02-09 369000 1974-02-16 311000 1974-02-23 292000 1974-03-02 301000 1974-03-09 305000 1974-03-16 315000 1974-03-23 314000 1974-03-30 323000 1974-04-06 296000 1974-04-13 297000 1974-04-20 296000 1974-04-27 283000 1974-05-04 287000 1974-05-11 296000 1974-05-18 298000 1974-05-25 309000 1974-06-01 278000 1974-06-08 314000 1974-06-15 303000 1974-06-22 308000 1974-06-29 325000 1974-07-06 311000 1974-07-13 304000 1974-07-20 303000 1974-07-27 320000 1974-08-03 335000 1974-08-10 347000 1974-08-17 332000 1974-08-24 343000 1974-08-31 350000 1974-09-07 350000 1974-09-14 357000 1974-09-21 370000 1974-09-28 366000 1974-10-05 371000 1974-10-12 413000 1974-10-19 389000 1974-10-26 414000 1974-11-02 406000 1974-11-09 441000 1974-11-16 449000 1974-11-23 518000 1974-11-30 474000 1974-12-07 528000 1974-12-14 510000 1974-12-21 521000 1974-12-28 537000 1975-01-04 456000 1975-01-11 554000 1975-01-18 575000 1975-01-25 555000 1975-02-01 559000 1975-02-08 545000 1975-02-15 530000 1975-02-22 544000 1975-03-01 546000 1975-03-08 551000 1975-03-15 531000 1975-03-22 550000 1975-03-29 555000 1975-04-05 537000 1975-04-12 520000 1975-04-19 531000 1975-04-26 513000 1975-05-03 505000 1975-05-10 507000 1975-05-17 514000 1975-05-24 493000 1975-05-31 475000 1975-06-07 529000 1975-06-14 497000 1975-06-21 497000 1975-06-28 459000 1975-07-05 423000 1975-07-12 446000 1975-07-19 445000 1975-07-26 454000 1975-08-02 454000 1975-08-09 459000 1975-08-16 444000 1975-08-23 457000 1975-08-30 446000 1975-09-06 447000 1975-09-13 456000 1975-09-20 433000 1975-09-27 445000 1975-10-04 426000 1975-10-11 429000 1975-10-18 404000 1975-10-25 426000 1975-11-01 414000 1975-11-08 415000 1975-11-15 386000 1975-11-22 401000 1975-11-29 387000 1975-12-06 373000 1975-12-13 368000 1975-12-20 365000 1975-12-27 391000 1976-01-03 362000 1976-01-10 402000 1976-01-17 370000 1976-01-24 363000 1976-01-31 359000 1976-02-07 353000 1976-02-14 344000 1976-02-21 347000 1976-02-28 349000 1976-03-06 348000 1976-03-13 360000 1976-03-20 368000 1976-03-27 366000 1976-04-03 380000 1976-04-10 373000 1976-04-17 361000 1976-04-24 367000 1976-05-01 385000 1976-05-08 395000 1976-05-15 382000 1976-05-22 394000 1976-05-29 402000 1976-06-05 382000 1976-06-12 407000 1976-06-19 399000 1976-06-26 387000 1976-07-03 394000 1976-07-10 372000 1976-07-17 406000 1976-07-24 394000 1976-07-31 388000 1976-08-07 378000 1976-08-14 382000 1976-08-21 400000 1976-08-28 394000 1976-09-04 421000 1976-09-11 383000 1976-09-18 403000 1976-09-25 423000 1976-10-02 408000 1976-10-09 411000 1976-10-16 403000 1976-10-23 409000 1976-10-30 414000 1976-11-06 390000 1976-11-13 383000 1976-11-20 408000 1976-11-27 377000 1976-12-04 402000 1976-12-11 395000 1976-12-18 365000 1976-12-25 333000 1977-01-01 380000 1977-01-08 416000 1977-01-15 368000 1977-01-22 423000 1977-01-29 422000 1977-02-05 565000 1977-02-12 477000 1977-02-19 399000 1977-02-26 362000 1977-03-05 361000 1977-03-12 355000 1977-03-19 369000 1977-03-26 356000 1977-04-02 350000 1977-04-09 376000 1977-04-16 361000 1977-04-23 375000 1977-04-30 375000 1977-05-07 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1978-06-03 310000 1978-06-10 331000 1978-06-17 326000 1978-06-24 330000 1978-07-01 348000 1978-07-08 356000 1978-07-15 352000 1978-07-22 349000 1978-07-29 346000 1978-08-05 365000 1978-08-12 354000 1978-08-19 343000 1978-08-26 333000 1978-09-02 313000 1978-09-09 337000 1978-09-16 322000 1978-09-23 323000 1978-09-30 318000 1978-10-07 343000 1978-10-14 316000 1978-10-21 338000 1978-10-28 316000 1978-11-04 317000 1978-11-11 304000 1978-11-18 342000 1978-11-25 359000 1978-12-02 377000 1978-12-09 344000 1978-12-16 347000 1978-12-23 352000 1978-12-30 358000 1979-01-06 359000 1979-01-13 392000 1979-01-20 337000 1979-01-27 342000 1979-02-03 348000 1979-02-10 359000 1979-02-17 367000 1979-02-24 360000 1979-03-03 355000 1979-03-10 363000 1979-03-17 359000 1979-03-24 353000 1979-03-31 360000 1979-04-07 465000 1979-04-14 457000 1979-04-21 383000 1979-04-28 357000 1979-05-05 353000 1979-05-12 344000 1979-05-19 346000 1979-05-26 349000 1979-06-02 336000 1979-06-09 365000 1979-06-16 351000 1979-06-23 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448000 1981-08-15 442000 1981-08-22 434000 1981-08-29 451000 1981-09-05 473000 1981-09-12 454000 1981-09-19 475000 1981-09-26 491000 1981-10-03 489000 1981-10-10 491000 1981-10-17 487000 1981-10-24 483000 1981-10-31 514000 1981-11-07 514000 1981-11-14 517000 1981-11-21 464000 1981-11-28 552000 1981-12-05 558000 1981-12-12 551000 1981-12-19 539000 1981-12-26 556000 1982-01-02 495000 1982-01-09 545000 1982-01-16 489000 1982-01-23 564000 1982-01-30 583000 1982-02-06 556000 1982-02-13 507000 1982-02-20 544000 1982-02-27 528000 1982-03-06 556000 1982-03-13 539000 1982-03-20 557000 1982-03-27 574000 1982-04-03 578000 1982-04-10 585000 1982-04-17 597000 1982-04-24 588000 1982-05-01 576000 1982-05-08 584000 1982-05-15 585000 1982-05-22 586000 1982-05-29 588000 1982-06-05 611000 1982-06-12 614000 1982-06-19 591000 1982-06-26 582000 1982-07-03 600000 1982-07-10 572000 1982-07-17 567000 1982-07-24 536000 1982-07-31 605000 1982-08-07 606000 1982-08-14 637000 1982-08-21 628000 1982-08-28 647000 1982-09-04 651000 1982-09-11 641000 1982-09-18 680000 1982-09-25 671000 1982-10-02 695000 1982-10-09 651000 1982-10-16 656000 1982-10-23 623000 1982-10-30 637000 1982-11-06 589000 1982-11-13 599000 1982-11-20 577000 1982-11-27 612000 1982-12-04 557000 1982-12-11 533000 1982-12-18 516000 1982-12-25 489000 1983-01-01 534000 1983-01-08 510000 1983-01-15 479000 1983-01-22 479000 1983-01-29 503000 1983-02-05 501000 1983-02-12 486000 1983-02-19 487000 1983-02-26 481000 1983-03-05 495000 1983-03-12 475000 1983-03-19 470000 1983-03-26 481000 1983-04-02 491000 1983-04-09 496000 1983-04-16 515000 1983-04-23 488000 1983-04-30 490000 1983-05-07 494000 1983-05-14 464000 1983-05-21 460000 1983-05-28 454000 1983-06-04 459000 1983-06-11 442000 1983-06-18 434000 1983-06-25 442000 1983-07-02 422000 1983-07-09 412000 1983-07-16 396000 1983-07-23 395000 1983-07-30 415000 1983-08-06 415000 1983-08-13 457000 1983-08-20 445000 1983-08-27 426000 1983-09-03 411000 1983-09-10 403000 1983-09-17 405000 1983-09-24 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211000 2019-11-30 206000 2019-12-07 237000 2019-12-14 229000 2019-12-21 218000 2019-12-28 220000 2020-01-04 212000 2020-01-11 207000 2020-01-18 220000 2020-01-25 212000 2020-02-01 201000 2020-02-08 204000 2020-02-15 215000 2020-02-22 220000 2020-02-29 217000 2020-03-07 211000 2020-03-14 281000 281000 2020-03-21 3,394,000 Chart Data Download data The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel. The data underlying the figure. Note: Projection for the week ending March 21, 2020, is based on authors’ analysis of news reports from March 15 to March 21, 2020, regarding unemployment claims in 35 states and D.C., extrapolated to all 50 states. Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, March 23, 2020 Share on Facebook Tweet this chart Embed Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Download image

For scale, consider that 3.4 million Americans moving from employment to unemployment would raise the number of the unemployed from 5.7 million to 9.1 million. This alone would raise the unemployment rate by more than half, by 2 percentage points from 3.5% to 5.5%, moving back to 2015 levels in just one week. This spike represents 2.2% of all jobs in the economy. The largest monthly rise in the unemployment rate in American history was plus 1.3 percentage points in October 1949.

To arrive at our estimate of 3.4 million newly unemployed workers over the last week, we collected news reports from March 15 to March 21 and applied a simple extrapolation to fill in estimates for those days and those states that were missing reports.

Many state UI agencies reported partial information to the press over the course of the week. We gathered and harmonized the reported numbers to calculate an estimated full-week initial claims statistic for as many states as possible; we were able to do so for 35 states and the District of Columbia (see Table 1). This required extrapolating to a weekly number based on a few days of reported information, paying attention to the number of weekdays and weekend days included in each public report. These 35 states and the District of Columbia accounted for 78% of national claims over the prior four weeks. This implies a state growth rate relative to its average weekly initial claims over the prior four weeks among these states.

Table 1 State unemployment insurance initial claims predictions for week ending March 21 based on news reports, for 35 states and D.C. State Projected claims Alaska 5,000 Alabama 11,000 California 639,000 Colorado 43,000 Connecticut 60,000 District of Columbia 14,000 Delaware 18,000 Georgia 20,000 Hawaii 12,000 Iowa 67,000 Illinois 121,000 Indiana 43,000 Kansas 12,000 Kentucky 17,000 Louisiana 35,000 Massachusetts 108,000 Maryland 31,000 Maine 12,000 Minnesota 108,000 Michigan 123,000 Montana 13,000 North Carolina 94,000 New Hampshire 27,000 New Jersey 85,000 New Mexico 14,000 Ohio 149,000 Oklahoma 11,000 Oregon 94,000 Pennsylvania 354,000 Rhode Island 42,000 South Carolina 17,000 Tennessee 5,000 Texas 116,000 Virginia 43,000 Wisconsin 67,000 West Virginia 5,000 Total for 35 states and D.C. 2,630,000 Extrapolated total for all 50 states and D.C. 3,394,000 Note: The 35 states plus D.C. listed above accounted for 77.5% of unemployment claims in the four weeks prior to the week ending March 21, 2020. Therefore, we assume that 2,630,000 represents 77.5% of the total claims for all 50 states and D.C. in the week ending March 21, 2020, so the total estimated claims (rounded to the nearest thousand) are 2,630,000/0.775 ≈ 3,394,000. Sources: Sources for each state’s projected claims can be found in column C of this spreadsheet. Share on Facebook Tweet this chart Embed Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Download image

For the 15 states lacking any public reports, we assume they have the same average growth rate as among states with report-based estimates. If growth rates were, in fact, lower in the states that did not report, our estimate would overstate the size of claims. We make two additional assumptions. First, that the ratio of average claims on weekdays to weekend days is 3. Changing this shifts predictions by only a few hundred thousand. Second, that the rate of claims growth is constant throughout the week. This a conservative assumption because many of the news reports are concentrated early in the week. In states with rising claims over the week, our assumption would lead to an underestimate of weekly claims. An enriched model, which harnesses state-level changes in Google Trends search interest in “file for unemployment” to predict the missing states’ estimates, produces similar top-line results. States with and without news-report-based estimates have similar average changes in Google Trends, providing some evidence that claims growth rates may be similar in the 15 states with news-report-based estimates as the 36 with them.

The number of new unemployment insurance claims is a narrow measure of unemployment and underemployment. Not everyone who is unemployed can claim benefits, and many states’ UI offices were overwhelmed by the surge in demand this past week, so not all claims could be accepted. The true impacts are undoubtedly of larger scale than described here. Further, unemployment insurance benefits replace less than half of families’ usual income.

States require federal support as their budgets get hammered by rising costs and falling revenues. Only the federal government can borrow at a large enough scale to match the scale of the problem. These changes are necessary to save lives threatened by COVID-19, given our failure to limit the novel coronavirus spread through means other than broad, indiscriminate quarantine. American working families are paying a large price through no fault of their own. But there is no shortcutting public health to get the American economy back to work. A healthy economy requires public health.