A new opinion poll done by research agency Cicero for the India Today Group shows that the BJP could bag between 5-7 seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections in the capital. The Congress which had registered a clean sweep in all the seven seats of Delhi in the last Lok Sabha elections in 2009 could see its tally crash to a solitary seat when votes are counted on May 16. The Aam Aadmi Party which surprised everyone with its spectacular performance in the Assembly elections of December 2013 is projected to bag a maximum of 2 seats.

The Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party are broadly garnering similar vote shares to what they registered in the recently concluded Assembly elections. But riding on a strong Narendra Modi wave, the BJP seems to have been able to push up its vote share from 33 per cent in December to a projection of 41 per cent in March 2014.

The Congress' vote share is estimated to crash from a dominating 57 per cent in the last Lok Sabha elections to a poor 23 per cent in the forthcoming elections, which means more than half the people who voted for the Congress in the last election have decided not to vote for Congress this time.

While the BJP has traditionally been strong among the upper castes and the trading community of Delhi, its biggest gains in the Lok Sabha election are coming from Jats and other OBC communities, which are showing a substantial change in voting preference towards the BJP. There is a mass desertion among Congress voters cutting across caste lines, while the Aam Aadmi Party is registering its strongest performance among Dalits and Punjabi Khatris.

The Congress' hold on the Muslim voters in the capital is crumbling. While 68 per cent of the Muslims polled in 2009 had indicated that they had voted for the Congress, this time the figure is likely to come down to 41 per cent. Aam Aadmi Party has emerged as the second choice for Muslims, with 27 per cent saying they would vote for Arvind Kejriwal's party. The BJP is bagging a fairly credible 17 per cent of the Muslim vote, which means that the Muslims of the capital are not polarising against Modi.

The BJP is in pole position in New Delhi, East Delhi and West Delhi, where Meenakshi Lekhi, Mahesh Giri and Parvesh Varma are leading on their seats. BJP's chief ministerial candidate for the Assembly elections Dr Harshvardhan leads in the high profile Chandni Chowk constituency, with Congress heavy weight and Telecom Minister Kapil Sibal giving him a tough fight. The other seat where the Congress is doing well is North East Delhi, where the party's sitting Jai Prakash Aggarwal is locked in a dead heat with Bhojpuri superstar turned BJP politician Manoj Tewari. The Aam Aadmi Party is in fighting chance in South Delhi, where AAP's Colonel Devender Sehrawat is battling Ramesh Bidhuri, and in North West Delhi where former Delhi minister Rakhi Birla is squaring off against BJP's newly inducted Udit Raj.

The BJP's grip is strongest among those who are above 56 years of age with 48 per cent of those polled indicating that they would vote for the lotus come April 10. 41 per cent of those in the age group of 26-55 indicated that they would vote for the BJP. But the youth of Delhi seem divided in their voting preference. 38 per cent indicated that they would vote for the BJP. A significant 31 per cent of those below 25 said they would vote for the Aam Aadmi Party, while 25 per cent indicated that they would vote for the Congress.

The voting preference for the BJP seems highest among upper middle class and the high income categories of voters. Among both categories of the affluent voters more than 43 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the BJP. Even among the low income and lower middle class voters the highest voting preference was for the BJP but the percentage of those inclined to vote for the BJP among the poorer sections of society is lesser than among the richer sections of society.



