Things have changed since the 1999 republic referendum, and earlier beliefs of a drop in support for the ancient institution were wrong, research paper says

This article is more than 4 years old

This article is more than 4 years old

Australians’ support for the monarchy has grown steadily since the 1999 republic referendum, showing the “folly” of previous predictions that constitutional change was inevitable, new research suggests.



A paper published in the Australian Journal of Political Science examines the shift in attitudes between the late 1960s and now, and helps to explain Malcolm Turnbull’s reluctance to champion the issue.

It finds that support for the monarchy fell sharply in the 1990s – a period that included “significant” royal scandals, the divorce of Prince Charles and Diana, and the decision by the Labor prime minister Paul Keating to campaign to move towards a republic.

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After a low point in support for the monarchy at the turn of the century, when voters rejected the form of a republic proposed in the 1999 referendum, the standing of the royals has recovered.

Luke Mansillo, a PhD candidate at the University of Sydney, points to “considerable improvements” in the monarchy’s public profile, culminating in Prince William’s wedding to Catherine Middleton in 2011, and the births of Prince George in 2013 and Princess Charlotte in 2015.

Mansillo suggests in the paper that “this improved profile and the declining number and frequency of royal scandals improved the Australian public’s image of the monarchy”. It enabled younger Australians to develop more positive attitudes towards it, and those of older Australians were repaired.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest An analysis of commercial polling shows Australian support for retaining the monarchy has recovered since a low point at the turn of the century. Photograph: Luke Mansillo

“Previous expectations of continual erosion of support for the ancient institution were folly,” he writes. “Monarchy has become more popular in a country that is better educated and less religious.”



The paper draws on data from previous research, including the Australian Election Study, a long-running project to canvass public opinion in each federal election year.

In 1998, 34% believed Australia should “definitely become a republic” and a further 32% believed it should “probably become a republic”, a total of 66%. By 2013, definite support for a republic had fallen to 26% and probable support had declined to 27%, a total of 53%.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Australians’ attitudes towards the monarchy at the time of the 2013 Australian Election Study, broken down by age groups. Higher figures reflect stronger support for the monarchy. Photograph: Luke Mansillo

Over the same period, total support for retaining the Queen increased from 34% to 47%, the Australian Election Study showed.

Mansillo’s paper says opinions are influenced by childhood and adolescent political socialisation. People who teenagers when the then governor general John Kerr dismissed Gough Whitlam as prime minister in 1975 have “the most resilient passion against the monarchy” and were “the only cohort to strengthen their anti-monarchist resolve in 2001 following the referendum”.

Turnbull and the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, support a republic but they differ on whether now is the time to pave the way for another referendum.



Turnbull – who led the Australian Republican Movement before the 1999 referendum defeat and accused the then prime minister, John Howard, of “breaking this nation’s heart” – played down the prospects for another attempt when he ousted the avowed monarchist Tony Abbott from the Liberal leadership last year.



On Tuesday he restated his view that the next occasion to consider a referendum would be after the end of the Queen’s reign, and said it would succeed only if it was driven by a genuine grassroots movement rather than imposed by politicians.

“To get momentum – and frankly there was more momentum in the late 90s than there is now – it needs to have grassroots support,” Turnbull said.



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“I have led a ‘yes’ case for a republic into a heroic defeat once. I have got no desire to do so again. If you really are committed to Australia becoming a republic, then you want to be sure that the manner and the timing of the referendum is such that it is successful and that it unites rather than divides Australians.”

Shorten said he understood Turnbull had been “badly bruised” by the failure of the 1999 campaign, but that he needed to “shed the ghosts of the past generation, and indeed Tony Abbott and the right wing of his Liberal party”.



“The stars are aligning for a debate about Australia becoming a republic,” Shorten said on Tuesday.

The Australian Republican Movement has sought to build momentum by publishing a pro-republic open letter signed by all premiers and chief ministers, with the exception of Western Australia’s Colin Barnett. The newly announced Australian of the Year, David Morrison, has also pledged support for constitutional change.

But the government frontbencher Steven Ciobo said Australians were more focused on issues such as jobs and growth.

“In time I have no doubt, as in fact the prime minister does, that we will see the republic debate come to the forefront in a more meaningful way, but we’re not going to jump every single time someone stands up and goes ‘Quick, we need a republic today,’ ” Ciobo told Sky News.

The Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese accused Turnbull of sacrificing his principles on the republic, climate change and marriage equality because “none of them were as important as getting the keys to the Lodge”.