Florida Coronavirus (COVID-19) Charts

Below are a number of simple charts showing tests, positives, hospitalizations and deaths for the Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Florida. Unless otherwise noted, these charts show the dates that the cases were reported to the state. This is not necessarily the date that the person was tested, was hospitalized, or passed away. Note that while the Testing numbers include both Florida residents and non-residents, Hospitalizations and Deaths only include residents.

If you'd prefer to see just a quick summary of the latest numbers, this table contains much of the data used for these charts.

• • •

This first chart shows the daily number of tests performed at the state-run and private labs each day, excluding retests from the same day. The 1st Time trace represents the number of people who were tested for the very first time. The Retests trace represents the number of people who have been tested at least one other time in the past (just not on the same day). This might include healthcare workers who are frequently retested as well as people who previously tested positive and are being retested to see if they're now negative.

• • •

The next chart shows only the daily number of people who have been tested for the very first time; it's a subset of the chart above. These are the numbers that the Florida Department of Health shares on the official dashboard. The chart can be toggled between linear and logarithmic; just click on the tabs above the chart. The linear version is best for showing the scale of one trace relative to another while the logarithmic version is best for showing whether the upward/downward trends are speeding up or slowing down.

• • •

Next is the daily positivity chart, which includes a few different positivity numbers, none of which quite represent the actual positivity for the general population; they should all be taken into consideration. Method 1 is used by the FDoH in their daily reports. Method 2 is used by various other Covid-19 tracking sites. Method 3, also used by the FDoH, is the one that is recommended to be below 10%.

Method 1 This method calculates the daily positivity as "The number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day, excluding people who have previously tested positive." One problem with this method is that it factors in negative test results from people who are frequently retested. Some people refer to these as "duplicate negatives", which might give the impression that they are duplicate results from the same sample, which is definitely not the case. These are often test results from healthcare workers who are on the front lines and may get retested as frequently as every two weeks. Since these workers tend to take more precautions than the general population, they are more likely to test negative. That many negative results coming in every two weeks will skew the positivity numbers lower. This method also seems to exclude people who previously tested positive but now test negative. This will skew the positivity numbers higher.

Method 2 This method calculates the daily positivity as "The number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day, excluding people who have previously tested positive or negative." This method excludes -all- persons who have tested negative in previous days, regardless of how long ago those tests may have been. While it does factor out the frequently tested healthcare workers mentioned in Method 1, it also excludes persons from the general population who have tested negative more than once but SHOULD be factored into the daily positivity number. Like Joe Average who thought he had it back in April but tested negative and thought he had it again last week but again tested negative. His negative test results are new for that second day and should be included in the positivity calculation for that day. Leaving out people like that will skew the positivity numbers higher. This method also seems to exclude people who previously tested positive but now test negative. This will also skew the positivity numbers higher.

Method 3 This method calculates the daily positivity as the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for that day divided by the total number of test results for that day. People tested on multiple days will be included for each day a new result was received. A person is only counted once for each day they are tested, regardless of whether multiple specimens are tested or multiple results are received. If a person has a positive specimen and a negative specimen in the same day, only the positive result is counted. This is the metric that is recommended to be under 10%, ideally under 5% according to the WHO. The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center states "we [JHU] feel that the ideal way to calculate positivity would be number of people who test positive divided by number of people who are tested", which is this metric. ::grumbles at u/singulon::

• • •

The next chart shows daily new cases, hospitalizations and deaths as well as the average age of the new cases for each day. Note that the average age calculation uses the mean, not the median like the FDoH's calculation uses.

• • •

Next is a closer look at the daily hospitalizations and deaths. Note that the death traces represent the days that the deaths were reported to the FDoH while the backfilled trace represents the days the deaths actually occured.

There is a substantial delay in deaths being reported to the FDoH. It can take up to three weeks for the majority of the reports for any given day's deaths to reach the FDoH. This is why the last few couple of weeks are not shown on the backfilled trace; all of the death reports for those days have not been received yet.

• • •

Next up are a group of charts showing a break-down of the total Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths by age group. Click the tabs to switch between them.

• • •

The next group shows a break-down of the daily new cases, hospitalizations and deaths by age group. There's a lot of data in these charts and they look like a hot mess; give your brain a moment to sort thru it all! Note that, as of July the 8th, these three charts include both residents AND non-residents.

Cases are shown as a percentage of the total number of daily tests. This is done in order to factor out the number of tests, which often varies from day to day and can give the false impression that new infections are rising or falling. This is NOT the positivity number, for which we'd need to know the total number of tests performed on each age group.

• • •