Australia’s former race discrimination commissioner will warn voters to brace for a possible race-based election, declaring there is every indication that the Coalition government has already “flicked the switch to fear”.

Tim Soutphommasane will use the John Curtin lecture on Thursday night to argue the Morrison government is “already campaigning on fear, seeking to incite hysteria about asylum seekers and border security”.

“You get the impression that Armageddon awaits vulnerable Australians, and if this kind of scare campaigning weren’t bad enough, just ask yourself this – might the fear-mongering get worse between now and the election later this year? Could this be just a preview of a race politics put on steroids?

“If such appeals to fear are to win the government a fillip in the polls, we must anticipate the likelihood of an escalation in rhetoric. We must expect more naked and blatant appeals to racism and division.

“We must prepare ourselves for a potential race election, and all that that would involve.”

Soutphommasane, who finished his term as race discrimination commissioner in 2018, and now has an academic post at Sydney University, has recently authored an essay called On Hate.

He will use Thursday night’s lecture to argue the imperative of building a culture of inclusive patriotism is urgent, and he will also query whether political leaders have really grasped the fundamentals of demographic change, with current trends suggesting the ethnic and racial diversity of Australian society will continue to grow.

The speech is a clarion call to the political class to safeguard democratic institutions, which he argues are under significant threat from the rise of nationalism, and it is also a critique of media organisations “making it their business model to hang on to angry audiences who want to vent against so-called political correctness and against minorities who dare speak up”.

“In a fractured media landscape, outlets are seeking to monetise hatred,” he will say. “They are feeding off the resentments of those in the majority who feel they are losing their position of power and privilege.”

Soutphommasane will use the lecture to warn against the rise of hate in democratic countries, saying hatred erodes democratic systems. “Some may say speaking about a rise in hate is putting it too strongly. Hate is a strong word, after all. Many associate it with organised extremism and racial supremacism.

“As we have seen in recent years, though, there is a clear rise in racist hate. Far-right and neo-Nazi elements have been emboldened. And we must be on guard.”

He will argue the current threat exists both inside and outside institutions. “Racism is finding a happy home both within sections of our parliament and government, and within sections of our media.”

Countering hatred is “an obligation of patriotism”, Soutphommasane says. “The threat that the rise of hate poses to our society isn’t confined to minorities and those who are most vulnerable to intolerance and discrimination.

“The threat is posed to all of us – and to our democratic institutions. When hatred becomes acceptable, it diminishes all of us.

“I have warned recently that, if we’re not careful, the recent outburst of nationalist populism may prove to be more than just an episodic venting of anger.

“If we’re not careful, we may be seeing it give rise to the preconditions of non-democratic government.

“When political hate spirals, it takes us into the realm of fascism. Good citizens, patriotic citizens have always been – and always will be – the ultimate guardians of democracy.

“But our political leaders are the ones who must be our first line of defence.

“It’s time for them to step up in defence.”