michael barbaro

From The New York Times, I’m Michael Barbaro. This is “The Daily.” Today: The kickoff to the 2020 campaign was undercut on Monday night by major delays in the reporting of the results from the Iowa caucuses. The story of the day. It’s Tuesday, February 4.

lisa tobin

Here comes Alex.

alexander burns

I’ll just grab a water.

michael barbaro

Yeah, yeah. (WHISPERS) That was Alex Burns. Hi.

alexander burns

Hi.

michael barbaro

Happy caucus day.

alexander burns

Happy caucus day.

michael barbaro

Is that a thing people say out here?

alexander burns

I don’t know. It’s something we say out here.

michael barbaro

Exactly. So let’s just set the scene a little bit. It’s 4 p.m. We’re in Des Moines. In about 2.5 Iowans are going to start heading to these caucus locations around the state. We’re going to do the same. And I want to talk with you about how this is going to work. So can you just give me a quick primer on this very particular tool of American democracy, the caucus?

alexander burns

Well, calling it a tool of democracy is generous in the view of some people. It is not a secret ballot. This is not something where people take 10 minutes in the middle of their workday, go vote and then return to their desk. This is an in-person, out in the open exercise of demonstrating your public support for a candidate. The way this works — literally, physically, in practice — is there are hundreds of predesignated caucus locations around the state. And around 7 p.m. local, people show up at these locations, and they’re asked to gather themselves into groups according to which candidate they’re supporting. They do that. There is an assessment made about which candidate has 15 percent of the support in the room and which candidates do not hit that threshold of support. So when people refer to the threshold, that’s what they’re talking about — 15 percent support at the caucus site.

michael barbaro

Of everybody in the room — 15 percent of everybody who has showed up.

alexander burns

That’s right. If you haven’t hit that 15 percent threshold, your candidate does not qualify to get delegates. And then the voting goes to a second round, where you get to reallocate yourselves to candidates who did hit the 15 percent threshold. So if you go in there expecting to caucus for Alex Burns, and Alex Burns in the first round only has 9 percent of the people in the room supporting him —

michael barbaro

Highly possible.

alexander burns

Entirely possible. He’s not super popular in Iowa. You can reallocate your support to somebody else in the room, perhaps Michael Barbaro, who just barely cleared the threshold at 16.5 percent.

michael barbaro

So what might be the impact of this process on the field of 2020 Democratic candidates and what we know about those dynamics? I’m thinking about Bernie Sanders, for example, who has been polling in the lead and who we understand has benefited from more moderate Iowans splitting their support among the other leading candidates in the race.

alexander burns

Well what the Sanders campaign believes will certainly be good for him, or almost certainly be good for him, is having that first-round popular vote ultimately released to the public. They believe that however the reallocation process ultimately sorts itself out, that he is very, very likely to have the most support on that first round of caucusing. So that even if he ends up slipping behind somebody else, they will be able to brandish that as a symbolic victory.

michael barbaro

Which is another way of saying he predicts he might lose some support through the process as it goes along.

alexander burns

Exactly. And for the more moderate candidates, those candidates have been competing for a lot of the same indecisive voters who are trying to sort out which of these candidates is the best bet against Trump, but I’m not for Bernie Sanders. Right? So if you are a moderate woman in the suburbs of Des Moines and you are tempted by three or four of these candidates, you may very well have the chance to vote for one and then change your mind in the second round. And it’s really anyone’s guess right now as to whether you are going to see more moderates moving towards Joe Biden on the second round, or women moving towards Elizabeth Warren on the second round, or perhaps Pete Buttigieg supporters scattering across the field. It is wildly unpredictable. And because of the way that 15 percent threshold works, it is hugely important whether somebody in the first round is at 16 percent or at 14 percent. Not only because whether they hit the threshold for themselves, but because it will determine whose supporters are actually deciding what happens on the second round. And in a caucus site where Elizabeth Warren is at 16 percent, her people are locked in. In a site where she’s at 14 percent, that’s a place where suddenly Bernie Sanders is in a position to pick up all the support from liberals who preferred Elizabeth Warren but might consider him on the second round.

michael barbaro

Right. Right. But if Elizabeth Warren’s at 16 percent, Bernie Sanders can’t go after any of her supporters because they’re locked in.

alexander burns

Right. So if you are Pete Buttigieg or Joe Biden, you are looking at the other guy and really hoping he doesn’t clear 15 percent in a lot of places. Because you’re betting that most of those voters are moderates and are likelier to go to me — by a lot — than they are to go to Bernie. But if both Biden and Buttigieg mostly end up at 16 or 17 percent, then they could find themselves sort of persistently stuck behind Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

michael barbaro

So what should we be most on the lookout for as we head out to these caucuses?

alexander burns

A lot of voters here are not necessarily going to make up their mind based on the ideological factors that we perceive as the national media looking at these candidates from afar. There can be a real sort of oversimplification for the way we see the lanes in this race that we think that somebody who is an Elizabeth Warren supporter is more likely to go to Bernie Sanders than to Joe Biden, as I just said. But it may be that somebody is an Elizabeth Warren supporter, not because they are left populist ideologically, but because they like her experience and they saw her in television ads with Barack Obama and they liked that.

michael barbaro

So they could easily go to Pete Buttigieg, not Bernie Sanders.

alexander burns

Right, or to Joe Biden or anybody else, right? That if you’re a Klobuchar voter, I think we in the national media tend to think of her as a centrist candidate, and by and large she is. She’s also the only other woman with a real shot at clearing the 15 percent threshold in this process. And if you’re for Amy Klobuchar, not just because she’s a centrist, but because you feel like it’s important to elect a woman president, you might end up moving to the ideological left on a second round just because Elizabeth Warren is the option available to you.

michael barbaro

Got it. So you’re saying don’t make assumptions.

alexander burns

I’m saying that anybody who is gaming this out in advance, with ideology as the sole or defining characteristic of how these voters make up their minds, is really risking missing the way real people are going to experience this.

michael barbaro

Thank you, Alex.

alexander burns

Thank you.

michael barbaro

So we will talk to you four hours — five hours?

alexander burns

Hopefully four.

michael barbaro

O.K. Good luck.

alexander burns

You too.

clare toeniskoetter

Here we go.

michael barbaro

Prepare yourself for some extremely unpleasantly cold weather. O.K. I don’t know — oh actually that’s Reid.

clare toeniskoetter

Yeah.

lisa tobin

Hello!

clare toeniskoetter

Hi!

sam dolnick

Hi, Reid.

reid epstein

Hi, how are you?

lisa tobin

Thank you for being our chauffeur. I feel like my dad’s taking us all to the soccer game.

reid epstein

It’s really wild.

michael barbaro

What are you listening to, Reid?

reid epstein

I have “Les Mis” on. I told you.

sam dolnick

Are you a big “Les Mis” guy?

reid epstein

No, but this is like the last day, so this is the song that —

clare toeniskoetter

Last day of Iowa?

reid epstein

The last day of Iowa.

michael barbaro

So this is the idea of the song, is like one day more.

reid epstein

One day more.

clare toeniskoetter

Can we crank it?

reid epstein

We can crank it. Hold on.

["one day more" of "les misérables" playing]

“One day more. Watch them run amuck. Catch them as they fall. Never know your luck when there’s a free for all. We’ll be ready for these school boys. Tomorrow we’ll be far away. Tomorrow is the judgement day.”

group

(SINGING ALONG) “Tomorrow we’ll discover what our God in heaven has in store. One day more!”

reid epstein

Can you pull the lyrics up on your phone?

group

(SINGING ALONG) “One more day! One day more!”

gps voice

Continue on Second Avenue for four miles.

michael barbaro

So we’re pulling into Johnston Middle School, and the parking lot is getting pretty —

reid epstein

There’s a lot of cars here.

michael barbaro

— pretty full. I’d say there’s a couple — maybe 150 cars here.

speaker 1

We’re asking you to stay right in this area here.

speaker 2

O.K.

speaker 3

And then when —

speaker 4

Press?

speaker 5

Press. Right over here on the left.

[cheering]

speaker 6

I’ll take it. I’ll just go over here.

speaker 7

T’s over there and see if you’re on the —

michael barbaro

O.K. It’s 6 o’clock and the doors have just opened.

speaker

Precinct One is on this side. Precinct Two on this side.

michael barbaro

We are now in a very crowded main hallway of the school, and I think they’re going to go register.

speaker 1

You’re not on here either.

speaker 2

Yes I am.

speaker 1

Oh good. Thank heavens.

speaker 2

That’s my husband —

michael barbaro

Checking IDs.

speaker 1

Thank you.

speaker 3

Hi.

speaker 1

How are you?

clare toeniskoetter

You know each other? Do a lot of people know each other?

speaker 3

Yeah, neighbors.

speaker 1

Two houses down.

speaker 2

Yeah.

michael barbaro

And then they head into the caucus room.

clare toeniskoetter

Which is a gym.

michael barbaro

Which is, I believe, a gymnasium. I’m just — I’m having flashbacks to high school. So now we’re in the gymnasium. There’s a huge set of bleachers in the back, and that is where the candidate alignment is going to begin. There are signs for Bernie, and people are sitting on those bleachers. There are signs for Pete, people are sitting on those bleachers. Warren, Klobuchar, Yang.

tom leffler

The sign-in is practically done and it’s 7 o’clock. So how about that? [APPLAUSE]

reid epstein

(WHISPERING) It’s Tom Leffler. He’s the precinct chairman. He’s running the caucus.

tom leffler

— in the vicinity.

speaker

Testing, testing.

michael barbaro

(WHISPERING) Amy Klobuchar is outside.

clare toeniskoetter

Is she allowed in?

michael barbaro

Yeah.

speaker

All right.

michael barbaro

Amy Klobuchar has just walked into the room.

[applause]

michael barbaro

Dramatic entrance.

amy klobuchar

It is so great to see all of you here. So my story, just so you know, I am from Minnesota. I am a granddaughter of an iron ore miner. I’m the daughter —

michael barbaro

(WHISPERING) Why is Klobuchar here, and why is she allowed to be here?

reid epstein

Any candidate who shows up can speak.

michael barbaro

(WHISPERING) And what’s the point of her showing up at the last minute right before the caucus?

reid epstein

Because this is really the time when she has to convince undecided caucus goers to come for her. And more important, people who their candidates might not be viable on the second alignment, to get them to come to her on a realignment. Iowans love people to show up, and she’s literally shown up at the caucus.

michael barbaro

Yeah, it’s a really dramatic gesture.

amy klobuchar

— what unites all of you in your separate groups is bigger than what divides us. I would love to have your support, but I also want us to win big in the general election. Let’s do it. Thank you, everybody. Thank you. [APPLAUSE]

[indistinct speech]

clare toeniskoetter

Do you know what’s happening right now?

speaker 1

Excuse me?

clare toeniskoetter

Do you know what’s happening right now? Is now the time you vote?

speaker 1

Yeah see what we’re doing is —

speaker 2

I don’t think we have to.

speaker 1

— they told us we had a total of 358 people here to caucus, registered voters. We have to have 15 percent to be viable. Well, that figures out to 54 is a count that you have to have to be viable.

michael barbaro

So I was going to ask, does it look like anyone’s in, at this moment, in danger of not being viable, and who isn’t?

reid epstein

Well the Yang group is probably not going to be viable. Doesn’t look they have 54 people over there. Biden — it doesn’t look like Biden is going to be viable here.

michael barbaro

So Biden and Yang may not make 15 percent —

reid epstein

May not make —

michael barbaro

— may not have 54 people.

reid epstein

Right.

michael barbaro

(WHISPERING) Are you surprised that Biden doesn’t seem viable at the moment?

speaker 1

Very surprised.

michael barbaro

Are you upset?

speaker 1

Well, what happens happens, but I think that’s a mistake. I can’t understand the lack of support. Of course, my wife’s supporting somebody else.

michael barbaro

Who is your wife supporting?

speaker 1

Warren.

michael barbaro

O.K.

speaker 1

Yeah.

michael barbaro

So if you don’t become viable, where do you think you’re going to go next?

speaker 1

Warren.

michael barbaro

O.K.

speaker 1

Yeah.

michael barbaro

We’ll see you over there.

speaker 1

Yeah.

michael barbaro

(WHISPERING) Are you guys the Yang gang?

speaker 2

(WHISPERING) Yes we are.

michael barbaro

How are you guys doing? We’re from “The Daily” with The New York Times. How’s your vote count?

speaker 2

We’re about 20 short to viability. We’re also looking at a very small Biden crowd and hoping we can pop over there. I don’t know how —

michael barbaro

And then maybe negotiate?

speaker 2

We’re hoping. That’s my hope.

clare toeniskoetter

So you want to convert them to Yang? You think —

speaker 2

My hunch is the Yang is probably more of a group of true believers, versus hoping just for the most electable candidate. So we’ll find out.

michael barbaro

The Yang people are now heading over to the Biden people to do some business. Do you want to —

speaker 3

Over here, we’d be willing to tell you why he’s a good candidate.

speaker 4

For me, I really like Yang. I really want to see him in the government. He needs to be in the government. I don’t see him as president quite yet. He’s still young. He’s got a lot to do, but we need him in the government now. And I think that —

speaker 3

I would agree, cabinet member at least.

speaker 4

Cabinet member or something, and so he will be there. Let me tell you why I think Joe, and we would love to have Joe —

speaker 3

No, we’re not going to go Joe because he caucused when I was 24 — his first election. 1988.

speaker 4

He is solid as a rock.

speaker 3

No he’s not. He just almost got impeached, or caused our whole country to fall apart with the impeachment. And his son — he got his son that job for $50,000 a year. That’s crooked. 100 percent. And that’s going to come up during the election. If you don’t think that’s not going to come up when he runs against Trump —

speaker 4

Have you fact checked that?

speaker 3

Yes, I have. Yes.

speaker 4

Have you fact checked the whole thing —

speaker 3

Yes, I have.

speaker 4

— and about the legitimacy of it?

speaker 3

His son — yes, his son — his son has not done anything for that money. His son has not done anything for that money.

michael barbaro

So this is your overture to the Biden people?

speaker 3

Yeah I’m sorry. I know, it didn’t work very well, did it? It fell flat on its face, so I’ll go back.

speaker 5

God, these people scare me.

speaker 4

That amazes me. I’m so sorry about that.

sam dolnick

You didn’t seem swayed.

speaker 4

What?

sam dolnick

You didn’t seem swayed.

speaker 4

I’m not swayed.

clare toeniskoetter

Are you angry?

speaker 4

No I’m not angry. I’m disappointed.

michael barbaro

Your face is a little red.

speaker 4

O.K.? Well yeah, because I’m hot. But not that kind of hot.

michael barbaro

Did that feel like a winning argument from the Yang people to you?

speaker 4

No, not to me.

clare toeniskoetter

Do you know where you might go?

speaker 4

Biden.

clare toeniskoetter

No, but are you going to go somewhere else if he’s not viable?

speaker 4

If he is not viable, Amy would be my second choice.

clare toeniskoetter

Will you try to convince your group to go to Amy?

speaker 4

I don’t know what I’ll do. I’ll have to think about that. I have to think about that because I — but Amy would be my second choice.

michael barbaro

Final results are being read now for the first allocation.

speaker 1

Biden has 37. 37 will not be viable.

speaker 2

You can come over here.

emcee

O.K., this is Pete. Pete Buttigieg has 70. Viable. [APPLAUSE] Viable. Warren has 59. Viable. [APPLAUSE] Klobuchar has 75. [APPLAUSE] Viable.

michael barbaro

So at 8 o’clock, here is the count from the first round, the first allocation as it’s called: Sanders has 76. Klobuchar has 75. Buttigieg has 70. Warren has 59. Biden has 37, is not viable. Yang has 33, is not viable. Steyer has four, not viable. Gabbard has three, not viable. And there are now 77 votes among the nonviable candidates that will be redistributed in the coming minutes, and that could obviously — given the spread between the top candidates — completely change everything. Of course, some voters may just walk out because dinner’s at home getting cold or because they don’t believe in any of the other candidates.

speaker 1

If you want your voice to be heard, join us. Join team Bernie.

speaker 2

I think we’re going to go — I’m going to go with Amy. Amy Klobuchar.

michael barbaro