Michigan House primaries: Democrats need a blue wave

Kathleen Gray | Detroit Free Press

Will a blue wave wash over Michigan, leading Democrats to a renewed position of prominence in the state House of Representatives?

Democrats hope a solid base of support, coupled with newly energized voters upset with the federal policies of President Donald Trump and women empowered by the #MeToo movement, will turn the state blue again.

But Republicans, who have enjoyed significant majorities in the House since 2010, believe that the booming economy and tax cuts that have been enacted under Trump will keep Republicans from defecting and attract the independent voters they’ll need to hang on to their 63-46 majority.

There is much at stake. Republicans have had a stranglehold on all levers of state government for the last eight years and the Democrats’ best chance to break that lock will be in the House and the governor’s office.

“We’re pretty comfortable where we’re at. We’ve got incredible candidates who are working hard across the state,” said state Rep. Kevin Hertel, D-St. Clair Shores, who is heading up the campaign for the Democratic House caucus. “We had a special election last year (in the Upper Peninsula) in a district that Trump won and Democrat Sarah Cambensy won by 14 points.”

But flipping the nine seats the Democrats would need to retake the majority is “too big of an ask,” said former Republican state Sen. Bill Ballenger, editor of the political newsletter the Ballenger Report.

“We have heard that the Democrats have a chance to retake the majority in every election since 2010 when they lost the majority,” Ballenger said. “At this point, I’m getting a little jaded. I think it’s a jump ball and Republicans have to be considered the favorites to hold on to control of the House.”

The House Republican caucus holds a fundraising edge with $3.2 million in cash available for the upcoming race while the Democrats have $1.3 million. But for the second quarter of 2018, the Democratic House caucus out-raised Republicans, with a $616,947 haul to the GOP’s $432,650.

More: Michigan primary election voter guide

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Here are some of the more interesting races in the 2018 election cycle.

Oakland County

The 40th State House District provides a textbook example for Democrats’ plan to retake the majority. It has traditionally gone Republican but is becoming more moderate. And it’s included in the highly competitive 11th Congressional District, where five Republicans and six Democrats are fighting for the chance to replace U.S. Rep. Dave Trott, R-Birmingham, who decided not to seek reelection in 2018. The open seat has Democrats salivating at the prospect of increasing turnout and flipping a congressional seat from red to blue.

“In the primary, we have two incredible female candidates. Both have raised a good amount of money,” Hertel said. “The Democrats in that district are energized, they want to see a change and Hillary Clinton won that district.”

On the Democratic side are Nicole Bedi, a Birmingham dietitian who felt compelled to get into the race after a colleague was shot and killed. She decided her next chapter would be public service and she became a volunteer in the gun violence prevention movement. Also running is Mari Manoogian, a former U.S. State Department employee who was born and raised in Birmingham. Her top priorities are improving K-12 education and making higher education more affordable.

Six Republicans hope to win the nomination to replace state Rep. Mike McCready, R-Birmingham, who can’t run again because of term limits. They are Mike Banerian, the vice president of his family’s wine distributing company and youth chair for the Michigan Republican Party of Bloomfield Hills; Malissa Bossardet, a veterinary and medical salesperson from Bloomfield Township; Paul Secrest, a Chrysler retiree from Bloomfield Hills; Paul Taros, president of the accounting firm Taros & Associates and a self-described “tea party and liberty activist” from Birmingham; David Wolkinson, a Birmingham attorney and president of Bentzion Properties, which owns and manages apartment buildings, and Joe Zane, a Marine veteran and member of the Marine Corp. Reserves and cyber security specialist from Birmingham.

Macomb County

While it's unlikely that Democrats can flip the seat held by state Rep. Peter Lucido, R-Shelby Township, who can’t run for reelection to his House seat because of term limits, the battle for the Republican nomination is one of the most competitive races in Macomb County.

Macomb County went heavily for Trump in 2016 and this district gave Trump 65% of its vote, so turning this seat blue may be a steep climb, but Democrats Robert Murphy and Kristopher Pratt are battling for the nomination. Murphy, of Romeo, has run for the seat four times and is a mediator for the state Court Administrator’s Office; Pratt, of Bruce Township, doesn't have a campaign website and did not respond to a Detroit Free Press voter guide questionnaire.

They’ll be up against five Republicans, including some with political experience: Scott Czasak of Washington Township, who worked for former U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Livonia, and has been the legislative director for Lucido since 2015; Frank Lams of Bruce Township, a middle school teacher in Detroit Public Schools; Karen Potchynok-Lund, a podiatrist from Shelby Township who is married to Peter Lund, the politician who held the House seat before Lucido; Tom Stanis of Romeo, who calls himself the “most ardent Second Amendment” candidate in the race, and Douglas Wozniak of Shelby Township, an attorney and member of the Shelby Township Board of Trustees.

Wayne County

The 11th House District race features a well-known Garden City politician hoping to unseat an incumbent, who just got into a minor scrap with police.

State Rep. Jewell Jones, D-Inkster, is a first-term Democrat who won a seat after the death of state Rep. Julie Plawecki, D-Garden City. But Jones was stopped by Michigan State Police earlier this month and charged with driving with open intoxicants and with tinted windows. He won’t be arraigned on the charges until Aug. 24 in Dearborn District Court. He’ll face Garden City Mayor Randy Walker, a veteran of the U.S. Air Force and retired skilled tradesman for Ford Motor Co.

The winner will face Republican James Townsend, a Garden City resident and evaluation specialist at the Detroit Rescue Mission Ministries, in November.

Detroit

Mayor Mike Duggan has gotten heavily involved in the campaigns of several Detroit House and Senate districts in an effort to try and defeat incumbents who opposed his plan to give Detroiters more options for auto insurance.

In the 6th House District, Terra DeFoe, who is an outreach worker for Duggan, is the mayor’s choice to replace state Rep. Stephanie Chang, D-Detroit, who can’t run again because of term limits. But DeFoe faces a crowded field of 10 more Detroit Democrats, including Willie Burton, the Detroit police commissioner; Tyrone Carter, a retired Wayne County sheriff’s lieutenant; Tom Choske, a digital marketing consultant who worked for former state Rep. and Sen. Hansen Clarke; Aghogho Edevbie, an attorney and former corporation counsel for Wayne County; Paula Georgette Humphries, a retired district court judge; Samantha Magdaleno, executive director of One Michigan, an immigrant youth organization; David Sanchez, a salesman at Gardner White; Ricardo White, who works on constituent relations for state Rep. Robert Wittenberg, and Charlesetta Wilson, a union leader for Unite Here, the union for hospitality workers in metro Detroit.

The winner will face Republican Linda Sawyer, a registered nurse from Detroit, in the November general election.

Michigan November Election Voter Guide Michigan's general election is on Tuesday, Nov. 6. Use the Free Press' voter guide to learn about the candidates in races up and down the ballot in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties



Type in your ZIP code to learn about races that will be on your ballot.

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Contact Kathleen Gray: 313-223-4430, kgray99@freepress.com or on Twitter @michpoligal