By the political axiom 'when you’re explaining, you’re losing,' Jane Corwin is losing. | AP photo In N.Y., a fix on Medicare

GREECE, N.Y. — Two days before a special congressional election, a Republican House candidate unexpectedly trailing in the polls is explaining to voters that she does not want to destroy Medicare.

By the political axiom that “when you’re explaining, you’re losing,” Jane Corwin is losing.


The assemblywoman’s big event Sunday was a “Press Conference On Protecting and Preserving Medicare” at the Latta Road Nursing Home here.

She defensively told a dozen elderly residents sitting in a circle around her that there’s been “all kinds of nonsense” and “a lot of confusion.”

“I want you to hear directly from me what I want to do to save Medicare,” she said.

The appearance came just one day after a Siena College poll put Democrat Kathy Hochul up 4 points over Corwin and confirmed what’s clear on the ground: Medicare is the biggest issue in this western New York district. More than one in five say its the single most important issue, including 38 percent of Hochul voters.

Rep. Paul Ryan’s name won’t appear on the ballot Tuesday, but Democrats feel increasingly confident Hochul will win in this red district because they made the race a referendum on the Wisconsin Republican’s budget plan.

Unlike all but four House Republican incumbents, Corwin did not actually cast a vote for the Ryan budget.

“The problem is with all the commercials and all the people being inundated, they’re hearing the lies,” she said. “And that’s why I’m out here telling the truth. At the end of the day, people will have to decide. But I just want everyone to be clear on what my position is.”

She calls Ryan’s plan “a terrific first step” but makes clear that she will never support controversial vouchers for Medicare.

“It’s starting a conversation that we absolutely have to have, but I’m not married to it,” she said. “I certainly would entertain any proposals that would improve any of these programs. … I’ve been saying the same thing since Day One.”

But to hear Democrats tell it, Corwin wants to destroy the popular entitlement. The airwaves in the 26th District, which spans the suburban and rural areas between Buffalo on the west and Rochester on the east, are saturated with commercials from the candidates and outside groups. Streets are more crowded with signs than during last year’s general: One that’s popping up all over says, “Save Medicare, Vote Hochul.”

Republicans call it demagoguery; Democrats call it a winning issue.

Hochul, the Erie County clerk, relishes the fight because it’s happening on her terms. Hochul said she has ignored Corwin’s charges that the Democrat is distorting her Medicare position. “I don’t engage. I’m on message.”

Hochul suggested that Corwin is the one not being forthright about her position.

“She supports the Ryan budget 100 percent,” she said. “Everybody else, in the media and the world, knows that it includes a voucher program. So I’m not sure how you distance yourself. I can see why she wants to. She just can’t do it. You can run, but you can’t hide from that position that she took a month ago.”

In the presentation she saw Ryan make about his budget, Corwin said he was clear that his plan is not a voucher system.

Corwin complains that Democrats’ “scare tactics” distract from issues like job creation and “out-of-control spending.” The vast majority of the 19 percent in the Siena poll who said the budget deficit is the most important issue support Corwin.

“It should be a local race,” Corwin told POLITICO, as she stopped at a lemonade stand after greeting voters door to door. “Certainly people care about Medicare, absolutely, and that’s why we talk about Medicare. But to hijack the agenda, which is what Nancy Pelosi is doing, it’s a shame. It’s a disservice to the voters of this district to make it into some national agenda.”

Republicans have seized on a vague comment Hochul made during a debate that “everything is on the table” to resolve the deficit, which they say is evidence she’s the one who really wants to cut entitlements — and raise taxes.

Another key factor hurting Corwin is Jack Davis, the tea party candidate who is polling at 12 percent after spending more than $2.6 million of his own money. A video showing Davis shoving a tracker backfired on Corwin when it was revealed that the cameraman was her legislative chief of staff.

Increasingly confident, Democrats have intensified their Medicare-specific attacks. Speaking to a rally of more than 100 Democratic activists in Amherst Saturday, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand received the biggest cheers when she talked about Medicare.

“She will fight even harder to protect our seniors from the radical Republican proposals that want to end Medicare as we know it,” Gillibrand said of Hochul. “And that is certainly something her opponents cannot say with a straight face.”

Later, Hochul walked over to hug 92-year-old Gerry Simmons, a supporter sitting, holding one of her campaign signs. A bevy of TV cameras surrounded the two.

“People are talking about two things: jobs and their desire to keep Medicare … as it is now,” Hochul said after the event.

Brian Higgins, a House Democrat who represents a neighboring district, praised Hochul for seizing on a nation issue and sticking with it. “Just overall she’s run a very, very good campaign: on message, very disciplined,” he said. “Kathy is rallying at the proper time.”

The race will likely shape expectations for 2012 going forward. If Hochul wins, Democrats might consider retaking the House a realistic goal. If Corwin prevails, Democrats will say the race was closer than it should have been.

Indeed, this is a Republican district. Last November, just months before a shirtless Craigslist photo brought him down, Republican Chris Lee won reelection with 74 percent of the vote. While gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino won just 34 percent statewide, he won this district. Sen. John McCain carried it more narrowly in 2008.

“Every Republican sitting in a swing district is thinking, ‘Oh no, what did I just vote for?’” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Josh Schwerin, who has been on the ground here since Monday.

Corwin’s campaign expects turnout in the low- to mid-20s.

To capitalize on the GOP’s registration advantage, Corwin’s campaign has focused on getting Republicans to the polls. On Saturday alone, her volunteers knocked on 10,000 doors and called 30,000 homes.

When door-knocking Saturday, the last house Corwin stopped at belonged to 80-year-old George Michael, a retired tradesman. He’s a registered Republican who voted for Obama. He’s undecided in this race.

“I’m considering between you and Davis,” he told Corwin.

The difference is Medicare, specifically the voucher. Michael’s chat with Corwin did little to ease his concerns.

“I’ve got a lot of kids,” he said.

Hochul, for her part, is trying to win independents. She’s making trips to diners and farmers markets where she can reach bigger groups.

Democrats bet that their laser focus on the Ryan plan will activate liberal voters and keep Republicans at home — one-fifth of the district’s voting-age population is over 65 and more than 60 percent are over 45. Hochul regularly mentions “future seniors” when she discusses seniors.

Corwin, no longer the frontrunner, is struggling to adopt the tone of a feisty underdog.

“I think I’ve got the best team of the three campaigns,” she said. “They know what they’re doing.”

She might be right, but the Ryan plan has unquestionably motivated certain voters who were subdued last year.

Ann Phillips, a 60-year-old technical analyst at a plasma donation center, has always voted Democrat but never previously volunteered or gave money. She’s given Hochul $250, knocked on doors and attended the Gillibrand rally.

She pulled from her purse a Congressional Budget Office analysis of Ryan’s budget and argued that it screws Medicare beneficiaries without solving the country’s fiscal problems.

Even some Hochul backers acknowledge that their candidate has spent more time attacking Corwin than offering constructive solutions.

“It’s hard to pin Hochul down on specifics too,” Phillips said. “Maybe you don’t want to be specific and give ‘em something they can hit. I understand the political constraints, but for independents, people that are on the fence, they need specifics.”

Phillips’s conservative Republican mother is 86. The two normally avoid talking about politics, but she decided the Ryan budget might be a good opportunity to get her aging mother to support Hochul. They went over the CBO report together, but so far her mother is unconvinced.

“To be honest, I don’t think I can sway her,” Phillips said. “We may cancel each other out.”

The race has also galvanized movement conservatives eager to avert a symbolic blow to Ryan’s push. Jim Martin, an ever-present right-wing activist and chairman of the 60 Plus Association, appeared with Corwin at the nursing home to present her an “Honorary Guardian of Seniors’ Rights” award.

Martin reminded the elderly audience that Democrats have long played political games with entitlements. He talked about the 1964 ad Lyndon Johnson ran against Barry Goldwater that showed a Social Security card being torn up.

“That was a canard, as we used to say in the old days,” he said. “And it’s still a canard.”