Fall ad buys shifting as November outlook clears

With Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today.


RESERVATION HESITATION: We’re less than six weeks out from Election Day, and that means tough decisions are coming for both parties as they seek to maximize the millions of dollars they have booked on television. Party committees and outside groups typically book tens of millions of dollars across the map early in the cycle to reserve the lowest possible rates, only to add, cut and shift funding around as certain races become more competitive and others start to look like foregone conclusions.

We’ve started to see the very beginning of those decisions already: last week, for example, the NRCC’s independent expenditure arm pulled back its TV ad reservations in Rep. Keith Rothfus’ district, and the pro-Trump super PAC America First Action did the same shortly after, according to Advertising Analytics.

But the committees and super PACs don’t just have to decide whether or not to pull money out of races where they don’t see a path to victory. Equally difficult is the decision whether to pull back money in races where operatives are confident, which can potentially backfire if races that appear safe become more competitive down the road and they are forced to buy airtime at a more expensive rate. The closer to Election Day the ads are purchased, the less bang for your buck on TV.

Still, Democrats are beginning to slowly take those steps. House Majority PAC, the top super PAC supporting House Democrats, cut nearly $1 million from its TV ad reservations in Virginia’s 10th district, my colleague Elena Schneider reported yesterday. The move came out of confidence that Democrat Jennifer Wexton is in strong position against Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock.

Similarly, the DSCC cut $725,000 out of its TV ad reservations in West Virginia yesterday, where Sen. Joe Manchin is up for reelection. Democrats have been bullish on Manchin’s prospects and the committee will now not start running ads until the third week of October.

This is just the beginning, and we are likely to see more cancellations and money moving into different races as Election Day approaches. Keep a close eye on where different organizations are adding or removing spending, and you’ll have a good idea where they’re confident in their prospects.

Good Thursday morning. Your usual host Zach Montellaro is somehow still on vacation and you’re still stuck with me. Shoot me tips, notes, jokes or just say hello: [email protected] /@JamesArkin.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ZachMontellaro, @ec_schneider, and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 40.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation’s top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country! Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today! Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.

REPUBLICANS STAND BY KAVANAUGH — Ahead of today’s hearing featuring Judge Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who accused him of sexual assault, GOP Senate candidates have stuck with their support of the Supreme Court nominee. More from your Score author: “Strategists, pollsters and activists working on Senate races say the GOP base is fired up by what they view as unfair treatment Kavanaugh has faced. The Senate battleground is being fought overwhelmingly in deep red states, and many Republicans believe that even those who don’t approve of the president will be energized by the recent court confirmation.But the unequivocal defense of Kavanaugh from most Republican candidates carries risks, given the uncertainty surrounding Thursday’s hearing and the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who has accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her decades ago.”

CHECK YOUR RESUME — Steve Watkins, the Republican candidate in Kansas’ 2nd district, inflated his role as a defense contractor in the Middle East by claiming he built a company from scratch. He didn’t. More from the Kansas City Star: “But records and interviews with company officials show that company existed years before he was hired on as a consultant, a Kansas City Star investigation has found. And Versar’s chief executive officer at the time gives credit for building VIAP to another person. Asked by The Star about his involvement last week, Watkins acknowledged he didn’t own VIAP.”

BUCKEYE BATTLE CRY — The Ohio gubernatorial race between Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine is tied at 47 percent among likely voters, according to a poll from NBC News. The Senate race is less competitive, with Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Rep. Jim Renacci 52-39 percent. More via your Score author.

FIRST IN SCORE — Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen’s campaign released two new ads today. The first is a positive spot where a narrator says Rosen works with both parties, including touting that she helped author legislation signed by President Trump and “took on Nancy Pelosi to reform the VA.” The second ad is an attack ad against Republican Rep. Dean Heller over his support of Republicans Obamacare repeal bill last year, featuring clips of Trump pressuring him on the issue.

Related: Rosen’s campaign says it raised more than $1.1 million since Wednesday of last week, which was the eve of President Trump’s visit to Nevada and the same day Sen. Dean Heller was quoted calling the allegations against Judge Kavanaugh a “hiccup” in his confirmation. The campaign says it’s the strongest fundraising week of the cycle.

JR ON THE TRAIL — Donald Trump Jr. is headlining two fundraisers and appearing at two campaign events for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz next week. The appearance follows events for Republicans Matt Rosendale in Montana and Danny Tarkanian in Nevada this week.

HIGH FLYING — A man who owns strip clubs in Cleveland has flown Republican Senate candidate Jim Renacci to more than a dozen campaign events since July, Jessica Wehrman of the Columbus Dispatch reports. “Renacci said he paid only $2,500 combined between January and June for the multiple trips provided by Don Ksiezyk, who owns the Peek-A-Boo and the Bug-A-Boo clubs in Cleveland, according to campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. Renacci, a four-term congressman, is challenging Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, in November. Ksiezyk, a licensed pilot who lives not far from the Weltzien Skypark in Renacci’s hometown, appears to have flown him to destinations around the state since at least February in a plane registered to his now-defunct company, American Nightlife Magazine.”

CALIFORNIA CHILLIN’ — Democrat Gavin Newsom is running a notably low-key campaign for governor of California, the New York Times reports. “Mr. Newsom took the stage to cheers in the hot afternoon sun in Orange County the other day. For 20 minutes, he talked about the Democratic candidates for Congress and the California Legislature. He talked about President Trump. He talked about poverty, homelessness, immigration and global warming. But there was one topic that Mr. Newsom, the lieutenant governor, barely mentioned: the fact that he is the Democratic candidate for governor of California. Mr. Newsom’s decision to glide over that point is testimony to his dominant position in the race to succeed Gov. Jerry Brown.”

BORDER BATTLE — Republican Rep. Will Hurd’s independence is on the ballot in his Texas district, Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek reports: “...Hurd has emerged as arguably the most prominent Republican from Texas willing to split with Trump — or at least strike a different tone — on some key issues, including immigration and Russian interference in the 2016 election. It is a profile that has earned him national attention and bipartisan plaudits — and it has only hardened Democrats' resolve this November to try to puncture the image he has crafted as a different kind of Republican.”

INVESTING IN YOURSELF — Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner has routinely invested campaign funds in a brokerage account, netting him a few hundred thousand dollars but leaving questions about his financing, via the Pittsburgh Post Gazette’s Julian Routh: “It is "unusual" to see campaigns invest funds, said Aubrey Montgomery, a principal with the strategic fundraising firm Rittenhouse Political Partners. The risk is too high, she said, and the short nature of campaigns requires a need to move money quickly….The Wagner campaign said he has only invested his own campaign contributions into the brokerage account — and none straight from donors. Mr. Wagner has self-financed much of his gubernatorial campaign.”

FLORIDA GREEN — A former GOP megadonor who has left the party gave $200,000 to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum last week, Matt Dixon of POLITICO Florida reports. Meanwhile, billionaire Tom Steyer announced that he’s putting $5.2 million of his money behind Gillum, bringing his total to $6.6 million, via Marc Caputo.

GILLUM’S WITH HER — Hillary Clinton will campaign with Gillum in October. Those appearances, reported by The Hill’s Amie Parnes, follows a fundraiser Clinton did in September for another gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Jared Polis.She is also going to headline a fundraiser for Sen. Bob Menendez in New Jersey, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports.

AD ALERT — We got another few dozen TV ads today, and your Campaign Pro team watched them all so you didn’t have to. Check out our roundup here.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Wow, that’s a lot of hands.” President Donald Trump to reporters during his press conference Wednesday afternoon.

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