There are other factors that play into a nationalized election. (Nationalizing an election should be seen as a predicate to the wave, which requires unifying principles to build momentum and engage the base and donors.)

First, scandal often helps fuel a wave. The House banking scandal provided fodder for the GOP sweep in 1994. The House scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) helped bring the Democrats back into the majority in 2006. While the Russia debacle does not implicate the House GOP in wrongdoing, its indifferent investigating and the antics of House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) give the appearance that the House GOP is enabling Trump to avoid scrutiny. Likewise, indifference to taking on conflicts of interest and potential emoluments clause violations in the White House gives Democrats room to argue that without a Democratic majority, corruption will spread.

Second, Trump himself has suggested that he could find it easier to strike a deal with Democrats than with his own Republicans, who are divided between moderates and the Freedom Caucus. Rather than Republicans arguing that a Democratic majority would bring gridlock, Democrats should be able to argue that the House GOP is dysfunctional and incapable of governing. Given the GOP’s performance on health care, Democrats may have a point. (A government shutdown or failure on tax reform would surely strengthen Democrats’ hand in this regard.)

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Third, Democrats start with a ready-made target: 23 House Republicans who sit in congressional districts carried by Hillary Clinton. A few already voted in committee for the much-maligned Republican health-care bill; others will be pressed to take hard votes on a favor-the-rich tax plan or on budgets that slash popular programs.

Finally, Trump’s and the Republicans’ stumbles so far are entirely self-induced. They have yet to experience an external crisis over which they have little control but full responsibility. Kyle Kondick writing for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball asks, “What happens to Trump if/when there is a crisis that is not of his or his party’s own making? What happens if there is an economic downturn? The United States has experienced 77 straight months of positive job growth, a record — isn’t it likely that a record-long streak will not continue in perpetuity?”