Photo by Buda Mendes/Zuffa LLC

In the tradition of UFC Fortaleza in early 2019, the UFC has delivered a stacked Brazilian fight night early in 2020; top to bottom, UFC Brasilia is terrific, arguably better than the PPV offerings of the year so far on paper. The main-event itself is worth tuning in for, as a showcase of fighters with awe-inspiring offensive potency; Charles Oliveira seems to be blossoming out of a gatekeeper role with a nasty finishing streak that has brought him to the doorstep of the top-10, and his opponent looking to keep that gate is the battle-tested yet still improving phenom of Detroit, Kevin Lee.

Of course, the implementation of the event has become decidedly nontraditional; with the COVID-19 pandemic in progress, the fights will be contested in an empty arena, the first major show to occur that way in recent memory. Kevin Lee’s weight-miss introduces a further unfortunate wrinkle, as the lightweight prospect to watch at the end of the night may not truly be a lightweight at all. Nevertheless, the fight is still on, and is bosltered by an undercard that straddles the line beautifully between being true-quality and full of the home-country names that populate cards abroad.

In fact, the card features a number of Fight Site favorites; Lee and Oliveira, the great Demian Maia against a fellow top-grappler in Gilbert Burns, the Brazilian redwood Francisco Trinaldo against the elusive Canadian Bull John Makdessi, the lightweight debut of the former 145 top contender Renato Moicano, and a clash of styles between the wild Brandon Moreno and Jussier Formiga (author of 125’s most commanding elite wins). The Fight Site MMA team is here to break the entire event down.

Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira

Sriram: Michael Johnson's mind in a wrestler against Michael Johnson's heart in a grappler.

Legitimately compelling fight, and their organ receipt from the ruins of Menace City is a big part of why that is; Kevin Lee and Charles Oliveira have been marked by dazzling success in their preferred areas, but those strengths struggle immensely to compensate for fatal constitutional weakness. If I could trust Kevin Lee to force the top-game for long enough to make Oliveira fold of his own volition (as Paul Felder did), the fight would seem like a mismatch, but that's not how Kevin Lee rolls. Lee getting pressured and counterpunched by Al Iaquinta bodes awfully for his chances against a guy who seems to be turning into quite the nasty and potent pressure-counterpuncher lately; that said, I can only trust Oliveira to do that for a round or so, because his recent wins have only gone that long, and he hasn't conquered the adversity in his recent run for me to think his historical aversion to difficult fights has just gone away.

Ultimately, despite the risk of picking him, I think I trust Lee a bit more over the distance, and I'm just barely not-high enough on Oliveira's improvement (or not-low enough on Lee's durability) to pin down an early finish as the most likely outcome. RDA/Lee was a terrifically grueling fight for both and Lee was there and trying to round 4, and I think he's a bit further from his development curve's end than Charles Oliveira so I'll give some latitude. He'll be in danger in the open if he tries to stay at range and jab badly as he did against Al Iaquinta, and he'll be in danger from the front-chokes if he shoots, but I'll guess that Lee guts through an early scary spot and finds it easier and easier to wear on Oliveira with his fence-wrestling and top-game as the fight goes on. Kevin Lee via TKO5.

Philippe : Amazing match up. Two great talents of one of the best divisions in the UFC. If they share some finishing instinct, both men also share in their past “I quit” moments. Not because they tapped, but because Do Bronx gave up on the fight when it got tough before and Kevin Lee’s giving up attitude just seems to come from legitimate exhaustion. They both came back very strong since those times, especially Charles Oliveira. For once in MMA, someone did it the right way; rather than plateauing beating/losing to fighters 5 to 15, Charles and his team decided to work on his craft while taking lesser competition. Since his defeat to Felder, Do Bronx went on a six win streak with six finishes (4 submissions, 2 KOs) and no fight went further than Round 2. So Charles rebuilt his confidence, and made major improvements in the striking department (pivot and all that) and his finishing abilities keep getting sharper and sharper. Can he do it now against a legit contender?

Of course he can. Is he going to do it against Kevin Lee? I’m gonna say yes, here’s why. Despite coming from my KO of the year 2019, I still think Lee is so vulnerable; he only spent half a round with Gillespie but reacted so badly to every shot he took. He was way more focused on his defense but still got tagged by the American wrestler. Yes, what happened afterwards was nothing short of amazing, but I don’t believe Kevin will ever get over that vulnerability issue. Does he want to go to the ground with Charles? He'll probably try, he does have a good top game and a very dangerous one, but I’m not even sure he can get Charles down that easy. At 155 lbs, Do Bronx is much stronger than he looks (that Will Brooks slam) and he’s so dangerous from his guard (elbows or triangle). I think Do Bronx reached his prime right now, and erased all the doubt he used to have, whilr Kevin is still questioning his cardio and his capacity to perform constantly well while destroying his body to cut the weight. Therefore, in what should be a banger, I’m picking Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira by Submission in Round 2.

Danny: Kevin Lee is an athletic underachiever, and Charles Oliveira looks like he’s turned something of a corner in terms of maturity and poise. Who knows. Oliveira via first round Brabo choke.

Ed: I’m so interested to see how this one actually plays out. These are two fighters with high skill areas, athletic and physical advantages over many of their opponents, but no clear game to implement them. As of late, Oliveira has been turning into a potent pressure striker and counter puncher, which has lead to more frequent grappling exchanges on his terms.

On the other hand we have Kevin Lee, a crushing wrestler (one who sometimes demonstrates an insane motor) that never quite figured out what he was doing on his feet. It’s not that he’s mechanically hopeless or lacks basic competency as a striker, it just seems as though he’s “fighting” and not working toward landing anything specifically or for any purposeful reason. Against Gregor Gillespie, we saw him make more intentional reads and capitalize with brutality, crossing over the straight of Gillespie to knock him back before swinging up the lead leg to ice him.

There are a few different ways I could see the dynamic between these two presenting itself. One, they both decide they like their chances better on the feet and engage in a weird kickboxing match. I wouldn’t mind that, as it would give us a pretty decent indication of where they both stand as strikers. Another possibility is that Lee has developed some sort of process for getting to his preferred wrestling situations (like coming up on the bodylock or hitting doubles on the cage) and can pick and choose when he engages with Oliveira in committed striking exchanges. At this stage I feel more comfortable with Oliveira as a striking threat, and could see a scenario in which Lee is either hurt or uncomfortable, attempts to wrestle without a safe entry, and ends up in danger from front headlock. Either way, it’s likely that Oliveira pressures on the feet and looks to either finish the job there, or scare Lee into pushing wrestling exchanges he may not necessarily be prepared to control. I could actually see Lee’s lack of process working in his favor. He might be comfortable enough now on the feet to drag a tough fight out of Oliveira in the early going, Lee may just wear Oliveira down a bit before thinking about wrestling, which would be far less dangerous. So even if Lee doesn’t really have a strategy of when or how he’s going to wrestle, which is really what we saw in the Iaquinta rematch, it could still be a winning approach. If Lee gets his preferred top positions, I don’t think Oliveira has it in him to take back momentum. Kevin Lee via third round TKO.

Ben: Y’all gotta know I’m salivating for this matchup. Oliveira on a six fight win streak with very clear strides in his striking game, Lee coming back from a 2 fight skid to knock out Gillespie in the first. The wrestler with heart issues vs. the grappler with heart issues etc.

Let’s discuss some specific things:

Charles Oliveira is actually quite a crafty and skilled reactive takedown artist. He typically prefers to pressure and force his opponents to react in big ways to back him off, giving him his entries into the clinch, where he has an excellent body lock, both control and his takedowns. He’s also quite brutal with his clinch knees as well. His reactive shot takedowns are no joke either. Kevin Lee, despite the strides he made, is not defensively sound for the most part, and still tends to over-extend on his punches. Against Ferguson, he threw himself over his punches multiple times, which is exactly what would give Charles the opportunity to grab a clinch and work his body lock. Kevin is much too easy to back up. If the Gillespie fight shows us he will be more active with his pressure, that can change things. However, if he allows Charles to control the center and take the initiative, working his long kicks to the body and legs, the jumping body kicks and knees, as well as landing his improved counter punches off the big lunges from Lee, I’m not sure we see Lee wilt. Lee relies heavily on his strength to get out of bad spots. He’s a really good scrambler, and his back takes are nothing short of lovely. That being said, he’s more than likely to leave limbs exposed when working out of tough spots or in scrambles, and that’s not a game you can play against Oliveira. People will point to the Felder fight as proof Charles can’t handle games like Lee’s, but aside from the clear strides in the mental game (talking about that next), Felder is a very underrated grappler AND is far grittier than Lee is. Oliveira put him submission attempt after submission attempt for the better part of a half round, spent the rest of it on bottom eating some shots and still attempting submissions, and in round 2 got hurt before getting grounded again and getting finished. Finally, the mental game. In watching Oliveira’s fights since the Felder loss, Chucky Olives has, in my observations, developed small reset ticks, similar to Poirier. These small moments come after instances of adversity for him, like hard shots landed on him, and serve to remind him he’s okay and to keep going. This was most apparent in his win over David Teymur. After 2 blatant eye pokes, Oliveira got pissed rather than cowed, came forward aggressively and got dropped. Rather than folding, after getting up, he immediately began pressuring once more, without stopping. He got tagged hard a few times over that round, yet never faltered. He even nearly grounded Teymur later in the round, lost the control, and still never stopped. In the second, he got the finish after rocking Teymur badly and submitting him. This is something we’ve never seen from Oliveira before, and frankly gives me the confidence to pick him.

So with all that in mind, I think this fight ends rather quickly, and I can see a KO or submission either way (and a Lee win wouldn’t shock me either btw). Charles Oliveira by submission round 1.

Demian Maia vs. Gilbert Burns

Danny: Burns’ move up to welterweight has done wonders for his fire hydrant frame and his general physicality as a fighter. He handled Gunnar Nelson beautifully, and that is a good enough analogue to assume he beats Maia. Burns via Unanimous Decision.

Sriram: Could easily come out of this looking silly, because Maia is still as elite a grappler as MMA has ever seen, and he has in the past made grapplers as good as Gunnar Nelson look like they were nothing at all. That said, the fight against Anthony Rocco Martin was more concerning to me than its lack of staying power in the Maia narrative has suggested; Martin outstriking a gassed Maia in round 3 is expected to some degree, but Martin sticking his back on the fence and refusing to move seemed to frustrate Maia a bit. Burns is another great grappler who's the better wrestler, and Maia beating an athletically-nonexistent Ben Askren seems to have hidden Maia's own athletic decline. Maia's boxing looked fine in comparison to Askren's (damning with faint praise, I agree), but he looked too uncomfortable under Askren's flailing flurries to think he holds up consistently to Burns' fairly uncultured but powerful raids.

I'll be bold; Burns trusts his grappling and physicality enough to come out hot and swinging as he is wont to do, and we find that Maia simply isn't all there anymore. Burns by TKO1.

Philippe: This one is going to hurt. Demian Maia is someone I love and respect a lot. We often praise his ground game but we often forget how tough he is. He’s never been finished since the Marquardt knockout in 2009. But 2020, he’s completely shot and washed. He looked absolutely awful on the feet lately, gassing after a few minutes. His opponent, Gilbert Burns, is super legit on the ground too, and a much more natural striker. Yes, he’s going to be smaller than Maia but he’ll be faster, sharper and in better condition. Maia’s long unfinished streak is going to stop when Gilbert Burns stops him late in Round 2 via TKO.

Ed: If Maia isn’t completely shot physically, I could see this being close, but it’s likely Burns just pushes his physical and striking advantages and finishes Maia after a few failed attempts at creating a grappling match. So much of this depends on what Maia looks like, and if Burns has any desire to grapple in literally any positions. I think it’s likely he does whatever he can to avoid grappling, despite his expertise in that realm, and gets it done standing, in ugly fashion. Burns R1 KO

Ben: This sucks. I love Maia (who doesn’t?) and this fight is not good for him. Burns’ last couple of Welterweight fights against Kunchenko and Nelson don’t bode well for Maia. Maia’s size advantage would likely be negated by the physicality advantage of Burns. The BJJ is not necessarily a wash but Burns is far better than it needs to be to survive any hairy entanglements. On the feet….man, Burns is going to beat the hell out of Maia. Maia’s striking is serviceable, but he’s quite slow at this point and isn’t a big enough hitter to really trouble Burns either. I think we see Maia either go out or just get beat up a lot and TKO’d when the referee feels bad. Gilbert Burns via TKO round 2.

Renato Moicano vs. Damir Hadzovic

Sriram: a bit of a referendum on Renato Moicano moving forward, this is. Moving weight classes is generally a last-ditch effort for a fighter, and Moicano isn't old but he isn't young either, so this isn't a place where he can afford a stumble. Hadzovic has disappointed in his last few, despite looking interesting at points; there's no reason to expect Moicano to lose here at all. Moicano's not particularly easy to control-wrestle or Zubaira Tukhugov would've done it, and essentially every FW was outslicked (at least early) at range by the Brazilian.

At range, Moicano's calling card is one of the craftiest kicking games in MMA; he can kick his opponents out of stance as they try to close him down (and use that to circle off or enter the pocket at a positional advantage), kick on the counter to take away specific tools, or work with nasty Dutchies. Moicano's also a terrific ring general and a strong jabber; he can be flustered by guys who can drag him into messier fights and punch his body (Ortega), counterpunch him in the pocket (Zombie), or simply be impossible to kick or punch (near-prime Aldo), but Hadzovic is none of that. Hadzovic is also the least threatening opponent Moicano has faced since the beginning of his elite run (starting with Stephens in 2017), and Moicano chopping up a phenomenally-talented and offensively potent fighter like Calvin Kattar makes me doubt he simply gets low-percentage-KOed unless he's completely washed. Cautiously optimistic for Moicano's 155 debut. Moicano by TKO3.

Philippe : Stay tuned for my article on Renato Moicano, everything is there. I’ll just say this, as long as he kicks, everything will go well for Carneiro. Moicano by TKO round 2.

Danny: Renato Moicano is a concern. After the Kattar and Swanson wins, he looked like a tough, deep technician who might not necessarily make it to a title shot, but would still be a stiff test for anybody looking into the top 3 of featherweight. Getting knocked out by Aldo wasn’t a good look, considering how Aldo has continued to erode and subsequently, a crushing loss to Zombie sent him running to lightweight with his tail between his legs. At 30 years old, ten years into his career already, there’s a solid chance the Brazilian missed his boat.

I’m not nearly as enchanted with Moicano’s technical game as Sriram and Ryan, but this does seem like a solid bounceback win. Hadzovic can be stranded and frustrated at range, and Moicano’s length should insulate him from any sort of Ross Pearson-esque intercepting-knee. Renato has a great jab, and has shown flashes of being a crafty veteran, so I’m assuming that will be enough. This is the kind of fight where we should be very, very concerned for Moicano if he loses. Moicano via Unanimous Decision.

Ed: Hadzovic is a void as a wrestler and grappler, think this is a bit of a layup for Moicano, R2 Sub.

Ben: Haven’t had time to re-watch any tape on Damir so I won’t comment too much on this. That being said, from what I remember (and looking at his resume), this seems like a layup as Ed pointed out. Not sure how Moicano will look considering the move up in weight and coming off 2 KO losses, but I do expect him to come out of this with a win, and look solid doing it. He isn’t the most athletic guy so filling out a bit may have a Krause effect on him, adding some pop to his strikes. Gonna go with Moicano via UD, maybe he gets a flash knockdown as well.

Johnny Walker vs. Nikita Krylov

Ryan: Yuck.

Sriram: Pretty much. I'll pick the one who seems less fragile, I guess. Krylov by TKO1.

Danny: Hilarious. This is a mirror match, so pick the OG. Krylov tends to lose to powerful top players, and Walker is decidedly not that. Krylov via second round TKO.

Philippe : Fuck yeah! Even in a weird and weak division, some matchups can be fun (if they don’t last long). I enjoy Nikita’s fights a lot; he’s not that good, but he brings it and chases the finish all the time. That fight is going to be a meme. Someone is going to lose quickly and I’ll suggest it’s gonna be Johnny Walker. Nikita Krylov via Submission in Round 1.

Ed: Krylov hasn’t only lost to grapplers via grappling, Misha Cirkunov did rock him first, but I really haven’t seen anything out of Walker that leads me to believe he’s going to win this fight. Then again, there wasn’t anything I saw out of him in the fights that he won that led me to believe he would win those fights. Krylov R2 TKO

Ben: I fucking love this fight! This is what LHW is all about, baby! The battle of two of the most nonsensical games in MMA today, let alone LHW. It’s one of those fights where it’ll be sloppy, wild, and fun/funny as hell, and I’m more than here for it.

Walker has been training at TriStar with GSP and Firas, there’s a good chance we see him try and implement a game plan centered around a jab, and watching it fail because he’s only been doing a jab for about 2 months. Krylov is meme-worthy himself, but he is at least proven to be tough and has proven his grappling is at least serviceable. You don’t have that many exchanges with Glover and nearly win the fight without knowing what’s going on. My guess is that Krylov will be able to get a takedown while Walker attempts a flying cartwheel kick or something and gets a Von Flue choke because LOL. Krylov by submission round 1.

Francisco Trinaldo vs. John Makdessi

Sriram: Love both these guys, but I feel like there's an obvious pick here. Makdessi is at the wrong end of a big athleticism difference, for one, and the crazy-strong Trinaldo could just get inside and fling him through the air. Trinaldo being a southpaw probably hurts a guy who relies on the orthodox jab and lead-hook the way Makdessi does (as Trinaldo could handfight those away), and while Makdessi is the more stereotypically "slick" karate-boxer type, Trinaldo certainly isn't lacking in skill at all as an elite counterpuncher who can pressure to collapse Makdessi's favored distance and has nasty body-work in many of his fights (which could give him routes away from Makdessi's fairly stout defense). Not unwinnable for Makdessi, he's terrific, but very rough against another terrific fighter. Trinaldo by TKO2.

Danny: This fight would’ve been great five years ago. Trinaldo via Unanimous Decision.

Philippe: People talk all the time about Romero’s insane physique for a 42-year old, but Trinaldo is up there too. What a fight this could have been a few years back. It’s a shame we never got to see Makdessi in action more during his prime. He’s a very good fighter (good offensive and defensive footwork, great right hook), but I’d have picked Trinaldo years ago and I’m still picking Trinaldo now. He’s much bigger, much more athletic, and if he’s gonna struggled to pressure Makdessi early, I think his capacity to hurt his opponent’s body will play a factor here and once Makdessi slows down, the Brazilian will get his 15th victory in the UFC as he’ll finish the fight strong and will be close to finishing Makdessi. Francisco Trinaldo via Unanimous Decision.

Ed: I’ve kind of exhausted my Makdessi-Trinaldo thoughts on the podcast this week. Essentially my read is that the range of Trinaldo will force Makdessi into either A) a low volume ranged kickboxing match, where power and size are going to matter too much, or B) leading a bit more often and forcing his pocket boxing exchanges, where he is inevitably clinched and forced to wrestle and grapple. It’s hard to foresee Makdessi getting a fight that favors him here, Trinaldo round 2 TKO.

Ben: I’ve never been as into Makdessi as many others have, and my feelings for Trinaldo are exactly the opposite. I love Trinaldo, and while he clearly has his flaws, they aren’t the type that Makdessi will be able to take advantage of. In close, Makdessi will be at a serious disadvantage in strength and power. At range, Trinaldo can definitely kick with him. Trinaldo would also be able to control him on the ground as well. Throw in the durability of Trinaldo, especially compared to Makdessi, and it’s a receipe for a clean sweep on the scorecards. Makdessi can win if he can just overwhelm Trinaldo with volume, and Trinaldo not pulling the trigger (which can happen considering his age and potential falloff), but I’m not going to bank on that. Trinaldo by Unanimous Decision.

Jussier Formiga vs. Brandon Moreno

Sriram: With Deiveson Figueiredo's win in Norfolk, Jussier Formiga became a piece in a triangle at the top of 125; he took a loss to Joseph Benavidez in his last fight, but Figueiredo's triumph over Benavidez suddenly left Formiga's 2019 win over Figueiredo very relevant. Formiga may finally be looking down the barrel at a title shot for the first time, and I'm tempted to say that fate simply won't allow him to have it.

However, Moreno seems like a forgiving opponent. Formiga's terrific as a control-grappler where Moreno's scrambliness may not fly (as Dustin Ortiz's didn't against Formiga), and Sergio Pettis gave Moreno a schooling on the feet with a meat-and-potatoes fundamentality that Formiga also possesses. Formiga's even better defensively in-close than Sergio, he's far less prone to getting grappled, and the pressure that Moreno showed against Kai Kara-France might have some difficulty against a Nova-Uniao-style pivot and ring-generalship of Formiga. Time is going to catch up to the stalwart flyweight veteran, but the form in which he made the destructively athletic Figueiredo consistently whiff and hesitate due to takedowns and counters was just about a year ago; I think I can trust him to defuse Moreno if that lasted, and I believe there's a better-than-even chance it has. Formiga by UD.

Philippe: How is this fight not the main event or the co-main event? I’m so sick of the UFC burying the flyweights in the prelims. Well, at least there will be an awesome fight to watch early. Because, yes, it is going to be an awesome fight. On one side, you have a veteran who does everything well, he’s a very solid grappler who rarely makes mistakes and who through the years has become a good striker (good footwork, good balance, good timing). M. Fundamental is fighting a young wild assassin, in Brandon Moreno. The Mexican is one I love a lot, he can’t help himself but creating chaos in the cage. He’s very aggressive and willing to take shots in the pocket to land his own one. At only 26 years old, he already has solid victories over Kai Kara France and Dustin Ortiz. If he’s still wild and vulnerable to counter-takedowns under his shots, he seems to improve more and more. I have no doubt that he will be one of the main men of the division in two or three years (if it still exists…) but this Formiga fight may be the last learning experience he needs before reaching his prime.

So I expect a tremendous fight, in which Moreno get some success early and shows his fighting heart but in which Formiga slowly but surely takes over, and controls the Mexican on the ground first and then on the feet (feint and counter). Rooting for Moreno, but picking Formiga via Unanimous Decision.

Danny: Formiga will go down in history as one of MMA’s great unfortunates. Always right at the cusp of a title, and under different circumstances, he should’ve been there already. Brandon Moreno is the more natural fighter of the two, but the inconsistency of his technical game often bites him against more process-driven fighters. Jussier should be able to broadly replicate a gameplan somewhere between Pettis/Moreno and Formiga/Figueiredo to just diffuse the choppy youngster. Formiga via Unanimous Decision.

Ed: Once again, I agree with Sriram.

Ben: Moreno is going to use the jab to get Formiga ducking to his right and he will slip right into the left high kick. I would prefer this not happen and that Formiga gets to initiate the clinch exchanges frequently to create some scrambles. But I think we see Moreno come out hot and jabbing hard to get the reaction he wants, and lands that kick. That being said, even if this goes deeper into the fight, Moreno’s pace is quite high and Formiga doesn’t really get stronger as the fight goes on in those matchups. Either way, Moreno via KO round 1.