Transcript

THE LEADERS - Monday 27 June 2016

SARAH FERGUSON: Hello and welcome to this special pre-election Four Corners, I'm Sarah Ferguson.

For seven weeks the two candidates for Prime Minister have cajoled and implored us. They have walked in malls and ridden on trains and pulled every stunt in the political playbook. They have run duelling fear campaigns - on Medicare and border security. Most of all they have talked and talked and talked.

But who are they really? And what makes them think they are worthy of our trust?

Tonight, you be the judge.

SARAH FERGUSON: They're the odd couple of Australian politics. The businessman and the union boss.

Bill Shorten: every day between now and July 2 counts. Every hour, every minute matters.

SARAH FERGUSON: The Workers Friend. And Mr Harbourside Mansion.

Malcolm Turnbull: treat your vote as though it's that's vote that decides the government

SARAH FERGUSON: They are almost caricatures of the post industrial divide: But they have things in common too. Both grew up believing that being Prime Minister was their manifest destiny.

Bill Shorten: I've been preparing for this campaign for the last 1000 days.

Sarah Ferguson: and before that?

Bill Shorten: I've been preparing for this campaign for 30 years.

Malcolm Turnbull: I came here to Parliament at the age of 50 after a career that had many roles, including many in business.

SARAH FERGUSON: Both claim modest origins, both became lawyers. Both married glamorous women from establishment families and shifted religious allegiances for them. One converted from Presbyterianism to Catholicism. The other from Catholicism to Anglicanism. They both became public figures long before entering politics.

Super: April 2006

Bill Shorten: One man has died and two other men are missing. This is a massive tragedy.

Super: 6 November 1999

Malcolm Turnbull: Whatever else John Howard achieves, history will remember him for only one thing - he was the Prime Minister who broke this nation's heart.

SARAH FERGUSON: Both have orchestrated the overthrow of first term prime ministers. And now, for the first time, both are asking the voters to give them a mandate to lead the country. I met them each of them on the campaign trail to ask them why we should.

SARAH FERGUSON: What qualities do you think you possess that makes you fit and the right person to be the leader of the country?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I have a vision for the future. I have an understanding…

SARAH FERGUSON: … Qualities… Forgive me for interrupting. I, I mean more in terms of your personal qualities.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Endurance. Resilience. Openness to new ideas. That's very important. I've never been someone who ah says oh not invented here or was al- we've always done it that way. I'm very open minded uh and consistent, very determined and consistent but I am I'm always prepared to listen to a better argument or a better proposition

SARAH FERGUSON: You're not as well known to the Australian voters as Malcolm Turnbull is. What personal qualities do you have that make you fit to lead?

BILL SHORTEN: I never give up. I respect people to my core. I'm a listener. My view of leadership is to be the coach. I don't have to be the full forward or the ruckman. My job is to c-coach a team to get the best out of people.

SARAH FERGUSON: What would it mean for you to be Prime Minister and in this instance I want an answer If you would from your heart, not from the manifesto?

BILL SHORTEN: It'd be a privilege. And imagine my family have never been big in the establishment or big in politics it'd be a great honour to be able to represent people

SARAH FERGUSON: You've said before that you're not always the smartest guy in the room. I think lots of people acknowledge that Malcolm Turnbull often is the smartest guy in the room isn't that the person we want as Prime Minister?

BILL SHORTEN: This nation can't be run by one person. This nation's too big, too complex, the challenges too broad. The idea of a strong man or just one person setting the sort of messianic direction and then everyone just obligingly following that's not the way of this world.

SARAH FERGUSON: Yesterday Malcolm Turnbull was the smartest guy in a room full of Liberal Party heavyweights launching his campaign just six days out from the election. The image he projected: confident but also modest. His campaign team ever wary of hubris and entitlement.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I have enormous confidence in the resilience and the resourcefulness of this nation.

SARAH FERGUSON: Perhaps to counter the idea that he had sprung fully formed from the head of Zeus the Turnbull's team produced a humble origins video - featuring Malcolm the sentimental bloke.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, most of my childhood I spent with my dad. He was a single father and we lived together, two guys, you know big brother little brother really was the type of relationship. We were incredibly close. We didn't have much money, he was a hotel broker and for most of that time he was, he was battling like a lot of people are, lots of single parents are certainly.

SARAH FERGUSON: Do you wish your father could see you now?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I wish I could see him.

SARAH FERGUSON: What would he make of you now?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I think he'd be proud. I'm sure he would be but I miss him every day.

SARAH FERGUSON: What do you miss about him in that daily way?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: His wisdom, ah his big brotherly friendship. He was a he was he was both a father and a big brother to me and so I miss that. And h- he was very wise. He had a very um classically Australian common sense, a worldliness, a- …

SARAH FERGUSON: Did you get his wisdom from him? I mean did you do you have wisdom?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I don't think I'm as wise as him. I think he was a he had a he had a ah … he had a h- he was probably in many ways the most grounded person I've ever known.

SARAH FERGUSON: In a modest hotel room in Western Sydney with three weeks to go in the campaign Bill Shorten prepped to be grilled by the public in his appearance on QandA, in the key marginal seat on Lindsay.

Bill Shorten staffer: You might get a question on the republic as well.

Bill Shorten: With Malcolm in charge I wish he'd front up more on that.

SARAH FERGUSON: The last time I interviewed you, only time was shortly after your mother died, think about her and what she'd think seeing you here doing this?

BILL SHORTEN: I wish I was able to ask her what I should do but maybe I don't have to because maybe some of her lessons have rubbed off on me already, she always said to me as a kid look it up hard work may not be a guarantee of success but it's a pre-condition and I'm determined to work as hard now between now and the election. Yeah, it'd be good for her to see this, I'd be interested in what she'd have to say.

SARAH FERGUSON: Was she good at criti - good at telling you when you're getting things wrong, too?

BILL SHORTEN: yeah but not necessarily, she could correct me and tell me what I was saying wasn't right but not in a way that felt diminished or silly but rather oh, ok, that's all her years of teaching, she had a generosity about her advice.

SARAH FERGUSON: There are two people in this contest - Bill Shorten described you as a strong man, Messianic even. How would you describe him?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well he is a he's a he's a lifelong politician, which unlike me, uh and he's a p- he's a professional politician, a- a professional advocate.

BILL SHORTEN: I remember when ah Malcolm Turnbull took over. Everyone said well that's that's the end of the Labor Party he'll be there forever.

SARAH FERGUSON: You thought it yourself for a moment didn't you?

BILL SHORTEN: Oh I thought the politics would change. I thought my job would be harder. But I never thought I'd see them go backwards ah in terms of not being the big ideas people but really resorting to talking about us 'cause they've got nothing to about 'emselves..

SARAH FERGUSON: Do you think Malcolm Turnbull underestimated you?

BILL SHORTEN: You'd have to ask Malcolm Turnbull.

SARAH FERGUSON: Did you underestimate Bill Shorten?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I never formed an estimation of him. It is I really just focused on presenting my case. Ah I've certainly never, I've certainly never underestimated any opponent. Ah you don't rise to be the head of the AWU without a- you know f- fair degree of talent and advocacy skills.

SARAH FERGUSON: One of the reasons you gave for replacing your predecessor was that ah he was going to be beaten by Bill Shorten. Do you still think that Bill Shorten would have beaten Abbott?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I think if- if there had not been a change of leadership then we would've lost the election ah very resoundingly.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I welcome today my distinguished predecessors, John Howard and Tony Abbott.

SARAH FERGUSON: Tony Abbott was there at yesterdays launch, the ghost of elections past. Unlike previously defrocked Prime Ministers he's been modestly absent from the campaign.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Tony, you brought to an end, the chaos and dysfunction of the road, Gillard, Rudd years and you remain at powerful and dedicated advocate to for our great cause. John and Tony we salute you.

SARAH FERGUSON: But Mr Turnbull's terse reminder the Government was heading for a "resounding loss" under Tony Abbott… belies the placid appearance that all is well on the conservative side of the party…. For they will be watching, very closely, how many seats are lost at this election.

SARAH FERGUSON: With the election tight now, you must be grateful for the um the buffer than Tony Abbott left you?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Sarah I am focused on winning the election and I'm focused on winning it for the sake of Australia's future. There is a very clear choice here: we have a plan that addresses the economic challenges our nation faces. Our opponents do not. what they have, the most anti-business agenda of any Labor party or Labor leader in generations, so there is an- this is not a case like 2007 where you had the Labor leader Mr Rudd saying he was an economic conservative and he really didn't disagree with John Howard on all that much, this is an enormous gulf and we have stability, strong economic leadership on our side, and the prospect of an anti-business government, a chaotic alliance between Labor, the Greens and who knows whom among the independents.

SARAH FERGUSON: Tony Abbott was big enough to put you into his cabinet. Are you big enough to put him into yours?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I have a very good cabinet. It has only been recently reshuffled following Warren Truss's ah retirement. Ah it's a it's a relatively new cabinet, it's a relatively young cabinet. Ah it has ah by historical standards a larger percentage of women in the cabinet and it will be the same cabinet after the election as it is before the election, assuming we win.

SARAH FERGUSON: Both candidates have issues about their character which have barely surfaced during the campaign. Turnbull's misjudgement as opposition leader - relying on false documents from public servant Godwin Grech to make unfounded allegations against Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. And in Shorten's case his behind the scenes involvement as a factional warlord in the removal of two prime ministers

SARAH FERGUSON: You were instrumental in the overthrow of two Prime Ministers, most decisively of course Kevin Rudd in his first term. Why should voters trust you with that as part of your history?

BILL SHORTEN: Because everything I've done has been about making sure that um the national interests and my view of what's in the public good. Now I believe ah they were very hard times.

SARAH FERGUSON: Do you regret the decision now?

SHORTEN I think in hindsight ah it all happened too quickly. I think it wasn't properly explained to people. I think it showed a Labor Party which was more interested in its own arguments than the people.

SARAH FERGUSON: I'm more interested in whether you've learnt lessons. I mean was it at the time was it inexperience or poor judgment that you didn't see the damage that the removal of Kevin Rudd would do to Labor? Anthony Albanese saw it on the night. Experience or poor judgment, lack of experience?

BILL SHORTEN: I believed in Julia Gillard. Let's be clear here. But I do accept that the conventional wisdom that parties can change leaders um hasn't kept pace with the public expectation about the way parties.

SARAH FERGUSON: There was no conventional wisdom that you could remove a first term sitting Prime Minister?

BILL SHORTEN: Well it's not it…

SARAH FERGUSON: There was no wisdom around that.

BILL SHORTEN Well I think ah eh there have been leadership changes in the past.

SARAH FERGUSON: Not in Government.

BILL SHORTEN Ah Gorton.

SARAH FERGUSON: Since Gorton.

BILL SHORTEN No you're right and that's why in hindsight it wasn't um the right way to go.

SARAH FERGUSON: Well the question that is indeed the question is whether to what extent you have learnt. Are you still the same person or would you make a similar decision now? That's really why it's relevant.

BILL SHORTEN: It's a bit funny now I am the Leader um. But…

SARAH FERGUSON: You wouldn't be removing yourself I take I take your point.

BILL SHORTEN: [laugh] But you know the serious point that you've got.

SARAH FERGUSON: But using your numbers using it's a serious question . . .

BILL SHORTEN: Yeah I understand.

SARAH FERGUSON: using the power that you have within the Party to destroy somebody else's career . . .

BILL SHORTEN: Mm.

SARAH FERGUSON: because that's effectively what you did?

BILL SHORTEN: Ah yes of course Kevin did come back um And I think that one of the things which I've certainly worked at as Opposition Leader is to make sure that rampant factionalism or personality politics takes a backseat to unity.

SARAH FERGUSON: You talk about rampant fact- factionalism but factionalism is something you were engaged in at that period in order to ensure that Julia Gillard um replaced Kevin Rudd. Are you still that faction man?

BILL SHORTEN: No.

SARAH FERGUSON: What's changed?

BILL SHORTEN: When you become the Leader and you go for a thousand days you realise that some of the arguments which you think are important are just not important as getting your policies together and being united.

SARAH FERGUSON: When you did have that revelation?

BILL SHORTEN: It's been an evolving thing. Unity is the prerequisite. It's the green fee you pay to get on the golf course of national government.

SARAH FERGUSON: Mr Shorten says he's evolved. He's learnt from the mistakes he's made in politics. Have you?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I think we all, w- yes, the answer is yes. Y-you learn all the time. You've got you've got to be you've got to be ah self-aware enough to recognise when you haven't you haven't done things as well as you should and learn from it.

SARAH FERGUSON: the former head of treasury, Ken Henry said that he was very surprised and very disappointed by your behaviour over the Grech affair. Are you still that same person?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well of course I'm the same person, but I learnt from the mistakes I made there, yes.

SARAH FERGUSON: What did you learn?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well I learnt that you should not ah you should not be perhaps- perhaps be less rash and less trusting of ah things that appear, things are not always as what they appear to be.

SARAH FERGUSON: Is Mr Turnbull an honest man?

BILL SHORTEN: I think he's um selling policies he doesn't believe in. And I think he doesn't run his Party. I don't think he's a bad man. But I think that um he's caught between what he used to be and what he is now and I think in politics if you can be true to yourself that's the pre-requisite for good leadership. But if you're leading people in directions which you don't actually believe in that's weak.

SARAH FERGUSON: Are you true to yourself?

BILL SHORTEN: Yes.

SARAH FERGUSON: Do you think he's an honest man?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Look, I I've got no reason to- to doubt his personal integrity. Some of the things he's saying in this campaign are simply not true, ah I but I think he no- he knows they're not true.

SARAH FERGUSON: What about you? Have you said anything in the campaign you know to be untrue?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Absolutely not. No, this has been a very from our point of view, this has been a very straightforward campaign. We laid out an economic plan in the budget, that- that brought it altogether and that's what we've been campaigning on.

SARAH FERGUSON: This election was set up as a contest over who was best to run the economy… Knowing that would be the test Labor had been preparing detailed policies and costings since arriving in opposition…

BILL SHORTEN: What we are doing is what no opposition has done in a generation

SARAH FERGUSON: In contrast before the campaign began the new Prime Minister had made a series of clumsy reversals on tax. Raising the flag on the GST...

Super: October 28, 2015

MALCOLM TURNBULL: GST, changes to the GST should be part, should be on the table.

SARAH FERGUSON: And lowering it again...

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I can assure you that the Government will not be taking a proposal to increase the GST to the election.

Super: 16 February 2016

SARAH FERGUSON: Then a grand plan giving the states power to raise income tax.

Super: 30 March 2016

MALCOLM TURNBULL: What we're talking about is the most fundamental reform to the Federation in generations. Really since the income tax powers were ceded to the Commonwealth in the Second World War.

SARAH FERGUSON: The proposition was immediately rejected by the premiers.

SARAH FERGUSON: You described it as the most fundamental reform to federation in a generation and then you were forced to abandon it 48 hours later. Doesn't that raise some questions about your judgement?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: No, it doesn't. It w-what it does is it- it at some point you have to bring matters to a head and we have had the situation in Australia for a long time and very intensely lately where the states have been saying to the federal government raise tax and give us the money. Raise the GST and give us the money; raise income tax and give us the money. and so I said to the states, well how about you raise some income tax. We seed some income tax powers to you and then you can raise it ah as you wish. Give them some autonomy back…and they threw up their hands in dismay and said no way, and I said fine. That's good. Now we're absolutely clear, you don't want to raise taxes, neither do I so we are going to have to live within our means.

SARAH FERGUSON: Let's talking about living within our means 'cause it's something that you share with Bill Shorten, which is that neither he nor you has the policies to return the federal budget to surplus within the next term of government. What's missing from both of you there?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, the, we- we've inherited a budget which from the Labor government, f- l- let's just go back to 2007. We left the government budget in surplus, a very healthy surplus and a lot of cash in the bank. Ah six years later, we inherited a mountain of debt but even worse a very big structural deficit and so what we have been endeavouring to do is to rein that in. Uh we will bring the budget back down from- from around $37 billion deficit in the first year down to six in the fourth and then it'll come into balance in the fifth, but there is a clear plan laid out. It- it's in the budget. Ah the assumptions are all reasonable and they've been judged as such by the secretaries of finance and treasury.

SARAH FERGUSON: Despite the fact that the secretaries of finance and treasury have both said that the forecast for the growth in the economy are extremely fragile, you're not talking about that.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well they've been judged as reasonable, Sarah, but all assumptions…

SARAH FERGUSON: And fragile.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: all assumptions in this time are fragile. The fact is, Sarah…

SARAH FERGUSON: I heard s- I heard Scott Morrison say that he had future-proofed the economy. Is he overreaching?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well what we're doing is making the economy more resilient. You see th- the- the big picture issue here the big choice here is between a government that I lead, which has a plan, an economic plan that is designed to ensure that our economy is stronger more resilient, better able to seize the opportunities of these extraordinary times and also meet the challenges, including particularly the unexpected ones.

SARAH FERGUSON: Let me just talk about over the horizon because this is what the economists are saying that um you get into surplus after the next after this term of government but after that there's some huge big spending increases, which you used to talk about when you weren't running for government, coming down the path, the NDIS, uh huge ex- expansion in- in um spending on pensions and health. But no one's talking about those problems. You used to; you're not talking about them anymore.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, we do talk about building a stronger economy. The, you see the…

SARAH FERGUSON: But you don't talk about how you're going to pay for the NDIS. There's no plan for hospitals after 2020. What's going to happen then?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: What will happen is that with a stronger economy we will have the revenues to afford to pay for those services. You see th- the mistake with respect to you uh that many people in the media make and certainly the Labor party makes, is to assume that the economy is just going to jog along ah without any influence or interference from government and the reality is that we have to ensure that all of our policies support investment, employment, entrepreneurship, innovation, exports and we have a whole set of policies to do that. Our opponents don't.

SARAH FERGUSON: It's not me and it's not the media. It's actually economists and former treasury economists talking about the fact that there is a huge spending problem down the track that no one's talking about just over the horizon beginning in 2020

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Sarah the only answer to that is to have stronger economic growth.

SARAH FERGUSON: If Bill Shorten loses the election on July 2nd analysts may trace their demise to their announcements in week 5 of the campaign. Labor's early advantage from their detailed policy work came to a sudden halt

BILL SHORTEN: If we want to pay for Medicare, for schools, for family-friendly measures, to make sure we can reduce the deficit over time, these are the decisions that have to be made

SARAH FERGUSON: Shorten conceded their spending plans and and the slow return of their new revenue measures would mean higher deficits than the government for the next four years.

BILL SHORTEN: So I think the difference between us in the first four years will be relatively modest.

SARAH FERGUSON: Labor's economic team had scaled the commanding heights of tax reform only to fall off the precipice.

SARAH FERGUSON: Did you feel sick that day at that press conference when you had to concede that you would have higher deficits in the forward estimates?

BILL SHORTEN: No. What I know is that we've got the better plan, both in the medium term and the long term. We've got better plans because what we will do is we will make sure that we make hard decisions tough decisions but I'm not gonna do it at the expense of smashing the ah household budget. I don't have any regret that we're not backing in a fifty billion dollar corporate tax cut

SARAH FERGUSON: Is that the moment you lost the election?

BILL SHORTEN: No not at all. Ah what we've said is that we will get the Budget back to balance at the same time as our opponents and over the longer term we'll make real changes which you can pay down Government debt without sacrificing our healthcare and Medicare systems, without sacrificing childcare funding or schools or universities.

SARAH FERGUSON: After all that work in the lead up to the campaign why did you make those concessions during the campaign? It looked like you were on the back foot from that point.

BILL SHORTEN: No I don't accept that we are on the back foot. Absolutely not. Now I know that my opponent said that he's won the election. Well it's up to sixteen million Australians the people who vote who'll decide that. What we've done is outline the most detailed economic plan that an Opposition's put forward in generations. That's eh you know even know our harshest critics acknowledge that. There are clear choices.

SARAH FERGUSON: But it's an economic plan that now includes the concession that you won't return the bu- Budget to surplus before the Government and before the forward estimates.

BILL SHORTEN: It's the same position as the Government that's right. But what we won't do.

SARAH FERGUSON: And what you will have larger deficits between now and then.

BILL SHORTEN: Well what we won't do is that we're not gonna rely on zombie measures in the Budget which have no prospect of ever passing. We don't like the idea that the Government's relying on a measure a whole raft of retrospective measures to try and um make their Budget numbers look good. The truth of the matter is that this Government is relying for whatever fiscal statement they make in the next three years on measures savage cuts some of which they're just not going to succeed in getting through. So their um their Budget numbers are a house of cards.

SARAH FERGUSON: Let's go to the- the central point of your uh your economic plan, which is the tax cut. Now um economists again and treasury modelling says that the biggest benefit - you know this, I don't need to explain this to you but for the s- for the sake of clarity - the biggest benefit comes from the tax cut to large businesses. That's where the big payoff is. Why aren't you out there championing your tax cut that comes down the road to big businesses?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well we're championing the whole package.

SARAH FERGUSON: You keep saying don't worry, it doesn't happen for another three terms, just vote me in now; we'll worry about that later.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: That's not what I've said at all. I've said the tax cuts are staggered so that they go to small and medium businesses first and they step up so in the next term, it's businesses with a turnover of ten, 25 and 50 million. Then there's an election and then they go up eh uh you know up to ah 100, ah 250, 500, and then after th- another election and then they go a billion and then all companies benefit.

SARAH FERGUSON: Your messages to the voters, don't worry about that later tax cut. Is that because Labor's attacks on you has cut through?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, th- that's… Sarah, that is what you- you say my message is. My message is not that at all. What my message is and I've explained this and I'll explain it again ah the v- reason for postponing the cuts to the larger companies is that the reason you cut company tax and Chris Murphy, you talk about economists, I'll name one, Chris Murphy's made this point today, extensively. The reason you cut ah company taxes, and this is why Keating did it…

SARAH FERGUSON: We know why you cut company taxes. I think the argument about growth is well made and it's been well explained. What isn't clear is why you would delay making the biggest tax cut, which has the biggest dividend for the economy, that's the one that you're postponing.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: A-and that's just what I was going to say if you hadn't interrupted me. The reason for that is that larger companies have longer investment time- timeframes, and so if you offer a tax cut say eight years hence, big companies that make very long, long term investments will make the investments today knowing that by the time those investments are generating profits they will be paying less tax. So in other words, by creating the signal, the longer term signal, you get the investment benefit now.

SARAH FERGUSON: Briefly why doesn't that argument apply to hospitals and education? Huge multi-billion dollar ah businesses if you like that need to plan into the future and they don't the states don't know where the money's coming from for education or for hospitals?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: But they do know w- th- the- the money…

SARAH FERGUSON: They don't know where the money's coming from after 2020.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, th- th- the federal government will always be continuing to support schools and hospital as- as it always has. The uh they the budgets are set over four years ah and- and you know every f- every year, the forward estimates move out another year and funding is there. There is nobody seriously thinks you're not seriously suggesting the federal government will suddenly stop funding health?

SARAH FERGUSON: Well let let's just talk to you about education because your economic plan is based on ah investments in education principally in education and health. Where is your evidence that that is actually going to lead to a boost to the economy?

BILL SHORTEN: Oh I think it's ah an argument beyond doubt that an educated workforce investing the skills and capacities of a people is the best way to drive sustainable growth. If we're to compete for the jobs of the future, jobs around ah the operation and design of machines and computers, jobs of the future in tourism or indeed construction, we need skills.

SARAH FERGUSON: But talking about actual measurable growth in the economy which is what we need where is your evidence that that investment the investment that you've chosen to make instead of . . .

BILL SHORTEN: Oh.

SARAH FERGUSON: Tax cuts for example is going to produce measurable economic growth in the Australian economy?

BILL SHORTEN: There's no doubt that if you look at the most prosperous wealthy nations in the world an educated workforce is one of the key ingredients. If you want to be a First World Nation and not just rely on a whole pile of metal or minerals then you have to invest in people. And I think that is beyond doubt. And contrast this with um the other team's proposal where they just give a massive corporate tax cut where once the money's spent on the tax cut there'll be nothing built and you can't get it back the money's gone. I eh I fundamentally believe the proposition that if we give our kids the best start in life, give apprenticeships the best opportunity for people to do apprenticeships, if we invest in mature age workers eh to help them re-skill, that is the secret of success in a nation.

SARAH FERGUSON: there's a whole range of big spending that kicks in after the period in which you're supposed to return to surplus with health, with the NDIS um. Neither you nor Malcolm Turnbull is talking about what's going to happen with that growth in spending. It's a plague on both your houses.

BILL SHORTEN: Well what we are doing is making structural deficit repair. We are repairing the Budget. We've taken the bold decision to wind back superannuation concessions at the top end which are simply unsustainable. We've taken what was regarded as a politically impossible decision to wind back negative gearing concessions prospectively and and con- changes to capital gains tax discount. Everyone says these issues are too hard, the vested interests are too strong. I don't accept that.

SARAH FERGUSON: But do you understand the argument that both sides in fact are conducting an election campaign as it were in a bubble. Beyond 2020 huge spending in health for example there's no commitment you or from ah Malcolm Turnbull about what happens to hospital funding after 2020.

BILL SHORTEN: Well I actually think we are talking about the long term in health care. We're the only Party with a plan to reform our hospitals but make sure they don't face savage cuts. We're the only Party with a plan, a funded plan I might add, to talk about how we can keep bulk billing and sustain Medicare properly. I'll tell you what a system we can't afford is the privatised American style system which will happen after July three if Mr Turnbull's returned. Do you know in America they spend seventeen percent of their GDP their Gross Domestic Product seventeen percent of every dollar they produce goes on healthcare costs. Our medic-…

SARAH FERGUSON: That sounds like a press conference. I'm going to move on from this subject.

BILL SHORTEN: But but Sarah…

SARAH FERGUSON: I just want to move on.

BILL SHORTEN: Sarah when you said we can't afford it that's the great conservative myth making.

SARAH FERGUSON: In early June massive storms along the east coast blew the campaign off its course. And brought climate change into the frame.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Certainly larger and more frequent storms are one of the consequences that the climate models and climate scientists predict from global warming. But you cannot attribute any particular storm to global warming, so let's be quite clear about that.

BILL SHORTEN: I don't think Malcolm Turnbull quite knows where he's going or who he is anymore. He's changed a lot from the Malcolm Turnbull who was ah not the Opposition Leader or was the former Opposition Leader and now is the Prime Minister. Beforehand he believed in climate change real action. Beforehand he supported having a Parliamentary vote on marriage equality. Ah beforehand he was very interested in tax reform. Now he's shrunk into someone who I don't quite recognise.

SARAH FERGUSON: You understand that a cross section of the population finds it hard to understand how your leading position on climate change has been watered down?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, I, I, I … I absolutely dispute that. The m- my position on climate change has been one, I take it seriously; two, I recognise there's got to be global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; three, you need to have a global agreement to do that and four, Australia should play its part. Now…

SARAH FERGUSON: Now what y- what you used to say before was that you wanted the party to be equally committed as you. You said that Australia should lead not follow and you said that the best mechanism for doing that was a market mechanism. It was indeed a grand liberal, the best liberal way of doing things. Your position may have evolved but it has changed.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well the only point that you've identified there that would be at odds with what I just said is the comment by inference towards an emission trading scheme. Let me say to you emissions trading schemes ah in the six or seven years, seven years since I perhaps or eight years since I made those remarks, have I would say worked better in theory than in practice. Now from our point of view in Australia, we don't care how other countries reduce their emissions as long as they play their part, as long as everyone plays their part in accordance with Paris and as long as we all when we as we increase our reductions do so together, that's fine. Now as it happens we are doing well. We are going to exceed handsomely the 2020 target…

SARAH FERGUSON: Just is this is this our fault that we misunderstood who you were? I mean sometimes, I, I know you answer this question, you say you're puzzled by the way people keep saying that you've changed. Is it our fault? Did we misunderstand you before do you think and the nature of your convictions?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: M- my convictions on climate change are absolutely unaltered. The great mistake and this is a mistake that people on the left often make, is that they turn everything into ideology. You know the ob- if the object is …

SARAH FERGUSON: This isn't a question about i- ideology. Let me just- this is a question about you and people's understanding of who you are and who you stood for and the nature of your convictions and the passion that you brought to those convictions…

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I stand for effective, concerted, global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The fact is that since the Paris agreement in November last year, we do have a global agreement and that has been an enormous watershed and I as- Australia will meet its targets and when they are increased and I, everyone I would expect will do that proportionately, when they are increased, I would think not later than 2020 we will meet those as well but what we have to do is choose the mechanisms that meet those reductions that suit us best, because we th- that's the and- and what we have at the moment I have to say is a set of measures that are doing the job and we will review them next year.

SARAH FERGUSON: Despite having committed to no change to the National party.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: No, we- we have … we have a policy we have a commit- a- an existing policy of which I contributed to as a member of the cabinet, which includes a review of our mechanisms in 2017.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: What we saw was the absolute objective of a Labor Party led by a leader Mr Shorten who says he wants to run Australia like a trade union. That's what he said. Thank you very much.

SARAH FERGUSON: Malcolm Turnbull has used every opportunity in the campaign to remind votes of his opponent's union pedigree.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: He backed the TWU, against independent family businesses. He is backing the UFU the fire-fighters union against 60,000 CFA volunteers, and despite the fact there are over 100 officials of the CFMEU before the courts for breaching industrial laws and regulations, he refuses to support the restoration of the rule of law to the construction sector.

BILL SHORTEN: You need a government on your side and we will be that government.

SARAH FERGUSON: Bill Shorten by contrast has bonded himself to the other Labor leader who ran the union movement

BILL SHORTEN: And what can I say about this man, ladies and gentlemen, Bob Hawke.

SARAH FERGUSON: We watched you at the launch um and Bob Hawke was there. How much do you value Bob Hawke's advice?

BILL SHORTEN: I value his advice and I value his support. And I also value the lessons that they produced of that remarkable Government in 1983.

SARAH FERGUSON: One of the reasons I ask is because Bob Hawke said after the ah evidence emerged from the Royal Commission that the CFMEU should be thrown out of the Labor of the Labor Movement. Why not follow Bob Hawke's advice in this instance?

BILL SHORTEN: Well I don't judge a whole union by the actions of individuals. And I'm not responsible for what every union official says just like I'm sure Malcolm Turnbull's not responsible for every action that a banker takes.

SARAH FERGUSON: Bob Hawke said that ah he wouldn't tolerate it. He said I'd throw them out I'd be happy for not to be affiliated. Bob Hawke got it wrong?

BILL SHORTEN: Well I don't think you judge ah everyone by the actions of a few.

SARAH FERGUSON: So Bob Hawke's got it wrong?

BILL SHORTEN: Well he's entitled to his opinion.

SARAH FERGUSON: Mm. But you disagree with him?

BILL SHORTEN: Well it's not up to me to do that and the point of.

SARAH FERGUSON: Well it is up to you you're the Leader of the Party.

BILL SHORTEN: Oh and ah you understand. You un-.

SARAH FERGUSON: He's saying clearly that the CFMEU should be di- disaffiliated from the ACTU.

BILL SHORTEN: Oh well I'm not s- I don't if he is saying that to be honest. But what I do know.

SARAH FERGUSON: Mm that's what he said.

BILL SHORTEN: Well what I do know is that I'm not gonna judge the actions of all building workers by the actions of some.

SARAH FERGUSON: It would have a sure way to demonstrate that you weren't in the thrall of the unions.

BILL SHORTEN: I'm not in the thrall of the unions. I don't feel the need to answer the News Limited claims or conservative commentators' claims. But let's be cl- let's be really straight here. A Government I lead won't govern for one section, it won't be a Government for business or for unions, but we will work with people. Remember what I said about Hawke in '83 one of the things he used to do is use consensus as a way of driving change. But you can't make meaningful change unless you get all the stakeholders at the table working together. You've got to create an agreed assessment of what the problem is. And an agreed pathway to dealing with it.

SARAH FERGUSON: You were a great friend of Neville Wran's. You've been an admirer of Paul Keating and Bob Hawke's reforms in the past. Do you think you could be as good as leaders as they were?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I would certainly aim to be as- as- as good a reformer as all of those three. They of course were Labor leaders ah and there have been great Liberal reformers too, John Howard and Peter Costello being ah the best examples. But you know it's a th- the critical thing about Hawke and Keating and Wran for that matter is that they saw the world as it is. They recognised the challenges as they were. They didn't h- they never ever hid under the doona. Now what I have done is looked at the position we're in, high wage, generous social welfare net, first world economy in a much bigger global environment, many more opportunities, vastly more competition, all of that global interconnectedness makes us more vulnerable to international events, so what's the answer to that? More innovative, more productive, more resilient, better able to deal with the rest of the world, access to big markets, all of you know more competitive. What I've done is look at the world as it is, as Keating and Hawke did and I put forward a plan to do that. My opponents, regrettably, have not.

SARAH FERGUSON: Bill Shorten used his campaign launch to escalate what has become known as 'the Mediscare'

BILL SHORTEN: if you want to know why this election will make a difference - to you, your family, your street, your workplace, to Australia's future. I can give you the answer of why politics matters in one word: Medicare.

SARAH FERGUSON: the campaign used Labor's hero to accuse the govt of a secret agenda.

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BOB HAWKE: in 1983, Hawke Labor government introduced Medicare. The Liberals were totally against it. And now the Liberals have set up a Medicare privatisation task force. Everybody knows you don't set up a Medicare privatisation taskforce unless you aim to privatise Medicare.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Medicare will never ever be privatised. It will never ever be sold. Every element of Medicare services that is being delivered by government today will be delivered by government in the future. Full stop. That is the fact. What Bill Shorten is doing, is peddling an extraordinary lie.

SARAH FERGUSON: Medicare privatisation looks like a fear campaign a scare campaign in the last period of the campaign because you're facing defeat.

BILL SHORTEN: Not at all. I will fight to defend Medicare no matter what Mr what Mr Turnbull says and does. And our proposition's very clear. We caught the Government. We caught them out setting up a taskforce to privatise the payment system.

SARAH FERGUSON: Ah hold on Chris Bowen had been looking at ah had taken submissions on privatising those functions . . .

BILL SHORTEN: Oh.

SARAH FERGUSON:… of Medicare. The Government has . . .

BILL SHORTEN: No.

SARAH FERGUSON: ruled it out completely. The medical establishment is against you. Turnbull's ruled it out. Why do you persist with it?

BILL SHORTEN: Well first of all what you said about Chris Bowen isn't correct. Second eh when we talk about what the ah medical establishments ruled in and ruled out they think that Mr Turnbull's cuts to GP funding and to…

SARAH FERGUSON: That's not we're talking about we're . . .

BILL SHORTEN: It eh…

SARAH FERGUSON: Talking about your s-…

BILL SHORTEN: It is the Medicare syste-…

SARAH FERGUSON:. I'm calling it a scare campaign around privatisation . . .

BILL SHORTEN: Oh.

SARAH FERGUSON: of Medicare which they have categorically ruled out. The medical establishment says it's a scare campaign. Why do you persist with it?

BILL SHORTEN: Why do you think Mr Turnbull's so desperate in the last minutes of an election to say he doesn't have bad intentions to Medicare. It's because he's been caught out. I tell you and my evidence is very straightforward. Privatisation is when you increase the burden of paying medical bills onto individual citizens from the Government. Australians pay their Medicare levy. Under Mr Turnbull's plans it is inevitable that we will end up on July three if he gets re-elected going down the American path of a two tier health system. It is inevitable.

SARAH FERGUSON: But you. You yourselves support the idea of people using private health insurance through the Medicare rebate.

BILL SHORTEN: No but we don't support ah gutting the public funded Medicare system.

SARAH FERGUSON: And that is not on the table from the Turnbull Government.

BILL SHORTEN: It oh I really have to disagree with you there. If you're freezing GP rebates the payments that go from Government to GPs for six years that will undermine bulk billing. If you're scrapping bulk billing incentives for pathology tests that undermines bulk billing and Medicare. If…

SARAH FERGUSON: It's not privatising Medicare.

BILL SHORTEN: Oh I'm sorry but my definition of privatisation is also when you shift the burden of paying for you medical health care a health care system from Government to individuals who've got make their own payments that is privatising the burden of health care costs in this country back to every person when they're sick.

SARAH FERGUSON: And yet the medical establishment has come out and said that what you are saying is and I quote them virtually all in unison outrageous.

BILL SHORTEN: No ah why don't we also say what the medical the Royal College of Australian GPs are saying will happen if the Turnbull Government gets re-elected fourteen and a half million patients are going to pay more to see the doctor. If Mr Turnbull gets back Medicare is under threat because you will pay more to see the doctor, you will pay more for your medicine, you will pay for your tests. These are not ah these are not made up statements it is the truth.

SARAH FERGUSON: Two weeks ago in the sombre aftermath of the Orlando massacre Malcolm and Lucy Turnbull went to a service at Sydney's St Andrews cathedral. Neither candidate is overtly religious - strangely both of them converted from the faith they were brought up with.

SARAH FERGUSON: I want to go back to some of the um the questions about the kind of person that you are if I may. Um one of the things that's interesting about you and it's actually there's ah, some symmetry with ah with Mr Shorten is that eh you converted to Catholicism as an adult. What did it mean to you to become a Catholic?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well eh it was a actually it wasn't strictly speaking a conversion because it turned out that having ah thought all my life that I'd been um ah christened or baptised in the Presbyterian church it turned out in fact I hadn't been baptised at all. Ah and so um so I was actually I was I was you know ah received anew into the, into the Catholic Church, which of course is Lucy's family's ah church. I, I am very interested in- in matters of faith and theology. I've got a keen interest in it.

SARAH FERGUSON: You were raised as Catholic. But you've converted to Anglicanism. What was the appeal?

BILL SHORTEN: Ah twofold. One is ah that's my wife's faith. Ah and when we got married um that was the faith she wanted to be married in and I respect her very much. Ah also the ah Anglican Church that and the priests who I dealt with they seemed in my opinion have a bit more um um smaller liberal sort of view of the world and ah you know that was attractive.

SARAH FERGUSON: How present is your faith in your political life?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well it- it is it is present. It's par- it's part of me. I have a s- I have a ah I don't want to labour the point. I think um I'm always a bit sceptical about politicians that ah talk about eh their religion too much ah but I d- I would say that ah it is I certainly do believe in god and I do have a strong faith.

SARAH FERGUSON: One of the most basic tenets of Christianity of course is the fact that every person matters equally, has equal worth. How did you feel personally when you learnt that two people on Nauru had self-immolated?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I was I was horrified, naturally. It was it's a … you would have to have a heart of stone not to be moved by that. It's a it is a that's a- a terrible, whenever wherever or whenever somebody is moved to- to ah destroy themselves to kill themselves, it's a that is a that's a terrible abandonment of hope.

SARAH FERGUSON: In that instance by a policy of your government.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Sarah, it is it is n- that- I, I, I dispute that. I absolutely dispute that. Ah the everyone has choices ah and the reality is that the border protection policies that we have are tough, I grant you that. They are tough. But we know what the alternative is and the alt- alternative is 50 000 unauthorised arrivals and 1200 at least deaths at sea.

SARAH FERGUSON: You suggest it's uh either, or. Is there not a third option where you maintain your successful turn back policies and resolve quickly Manus Island and Nauru?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: We certainly are seeking to resettle the people on both those eh o- off- offering opportunities for both those um ah places but you've got to remember that Nauru is managed by the Nauru government, Manus by the PNG government. But we would of course everyone would welcome the asylum seekers that are located there being able to find ah settlement or return to their the countries from whence they came…

SARAH FERGUSON: … You put it passively as if it isn't your responsibility.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well y-you have to remember that those places are those um centres are managed by the res- th- the respective governments, PNG and Nauru, that's a fact.

SARAH FERGUSON: But are you not responsible for the people i- in on in those centres or on those islands as the Australian prime minister who runs the regime that holds them there?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, we don't hold them there. We don't hold them there. That's th- that is that is not correct. We do not hold them there.

SARAH FERGUSON: So you don't feel responsible for them?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, I, I am responsible for ensuring that our borders are secure. The- the reality is that we are not theorising here. You know I I'm the prime minister of Australia, part of my job is to make tough decisions and sometimes those decisions are very are very tough indeed. If we were to for example, say to all the people on Nauru come and settle in Australia, the people smugglers would use that as the biggest marketing opportunity ever. The boats would start again and it would be all on again. This is exactly the mistake that Kevin Rudd made. Now we- we will we endeavour to find alternative places for them to settle in and we encourage them to return to their country of origin, particular those who have not achieved ah refugee status…

SARAH FERGUSON: Are you giving yourself some limit, time limit on this?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: We are seeking to do it as- as quickly as we can but I have to say to you that ah the it'll be it will be easier to do after the election because of course, ah people are being encouraged ah look there is a view that the Labor party will take a weaker view on border protection and all of the evidence suggests that they will and there plenty of people who are saying to those on Manus and ah Nauru, just wait, if there's a Labor government you'll be able to come and settle in Australia.

SARAH FERGUSON: was your conscience touched when you heard that two people had set themselves on fire in Nauru?

BILL SHORTEN: Of course that's a dreadful thing to happen. It's a dreadful thing to happen. What I also know is that if we were to allow the people smugglers back into business people will drown at sea. I've worked on workplace health and safety my whole life. I've seen ah all s- all manner of you know very bad outcomes for people in terms of workplaces. If I'm the Prime Minister of Australia in all conscience I can't advocate a policy even though some on the left would like to me which would see people being sold tickets in unsafe boats and drowning at sea. what I won't do unlike the Liberals is say that because we want to deter people smugglers that what's emerged as ah semi indefinite detention is also acceptable. On the first day we get sworn in as a Government if we get elected I'll be sending my Immigration Minister to talk to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to talk about how we can have regional re-settlement and fast track that. Because keeping people there is a dreadful outcome as well.

SARAH FERGUSON: Do you seriously think at the moment with a world refugee crisis worse than anything since the Second World War that a problem of a few thousand people in Australia should be a priority for the UN?

BILL SHORTEN: I know that Richard Miles has speaking with the UN. I know that people are interested in what a change in Government might mean in terms of being able to help deal with the refugee crisis. I don't accept the right wing argument that we should only take an interest about what happens in our own country. I've allocated in our policies money to help not only re-settlement of refugees but also help the general refugee crisis around the world.

SARAH FERGUSON: Why not just send Richard Miles straight to New Zealand. It's cheaper than going to Geneva and you could get a solution straight away.

BILL SHORTEN: Well we should go and talk to the UN High Commissioner of Refugees first. We are interested in how we can do re-settlement um. And I know one thing I will give a.

SARAH FERGUSON: And does that include New Zealand? Are you open to that option?

BILL SHORTEN: Well there's no doubt that we should look at re-settlement options throughout through-out the region.

SARAH FERGUSON: Including New Zealand?

BILL SHORTEN: Well it's a re-settlement nation but I will also make clear here is you know how toxic this debate's been.

SARAH FERGUSON: Mm.

BILL SHORTEN: It's been a terrible debate. It's terrible because you've got people caught in s- forces greater than them. Ever since 1996 and the rise of Hansen this issue's been a vexed issue in Australian politics. Now I've led the Labor Party on a policy which will still see regional re-settlement. But we're also committed to actually accepting more refugees in this country. We're also committed to making sure that we end semi indefinite detention. So I think we have got the balance right.

SARAH FERGUSON: You were in the government that reopened Nauru and established the Manus Island detention centre. Do you feel personally responsible for the condition of the people living there now?

BILL SHORTEN: I feel a responsibility to make sure that we solve the problem. I'm not going to um say otherwise. I'm not going to I won't be a Leader who pretends this isn't a problem.

SARAH FERGUSON: Well that doesn't acknowledging there's a problem isn't fixing the problem. You've had a lot of time to think about this . . .

BILL SHORTEN: Oh.

SARAH FERGUSON: when you were in Government and during the period of the Abbott and Turnbull Governments.

BILL SHORTEN: I really wish that the Liberals and the Greens had not ganged up on us and done over the Malaysia solution um. I really wish that was the case. But I'm also not gonna ignore the experience of the mass drownings at sea and simply say that we should only worry about people when they get to our shores and it's not our responsibility about what happens as people drown at sea. I tell you what I do owe people in our care we do owe them a duty of care and I I think and I was surprised Mr Turnbull didn't do this. I thought that because traditionally he'd espoused more progressive views prior to becoming Prime Minister and I thought he might give this issue some priority. He's chosen not to. I will.

SARAH FERGUSON: After the marathon campaign the finishing line is in sight. Bill Shorten is hoping his physical effort could translate into a win but the shock of the Brexit vote has again raised the question of instability.

SARAH FERGUSON: Talking about the Australian people why would they want a sixth Prime Minister in six years?

BILL SHORTEN: Because they want better health care. Because they want better school funding. 'Cause they want to make sure that working parents in particular working mums can get a lift in the rebate. Becau-…

SARAH FERGUSON: Don't they don't they also want stability? The the Malcolm Turnbull's been talking about it a lot. It seems like a potent argument that change there isn't enough desire for change again?

BILL SHORTEN: So is the argument that Malcolm Turnbull's now running that well we've just had um you know give me longer to do whatever it is I'm going to do. That's not really a great argument to run the country is it.

SARAH FERGUSON: It's an argument about stability.

BILL SHORTEN: Well what we want is policy stability. What we want is stability in our health care system. What we want is stability and certainty in our schools funding. Malcolm Turnbull's had three different economic plans in the last nine months. There's no stability in what he's offering.

SARAH FERGUSON: Backstage at the liberal party campaign launch - as the party faithful gathered in the ballroom. Malcolm Turnbull spent a few moments with his family before giving his speech. The speech had been rewritten to reflect events in Britain

Malcolm Turnbull: If it could be done smoothly according to the text book that would be better. It's the unpredictability of the political reactions that are going to need really strong leadership.

SARAH FERGUSON: Do you think this is the moment for a less ideologically driven leader?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: This is the time for a practical businesslike view of our circumstances. That is what I've done. I've laid that out and I've said right, this is where we are; these are our challenges; here are our opportunities; here are the measures that will en- enable us best to seize those opportunities and be resilient in the face of those challenges.

SARAH FERGUSON: But a less rash, less risk taking Malcolm Turnbull perhaps?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Perhaps older and wiser, more measured and more considered but we need to have a plan and I do.