Disclaimer: All statistics referenced are of the past 2 months

I am aware the layout is messy. I am still new to WordPress. If there is a good amount of interest in these analyses I will significantly improve them for the future

Favorite/Least favorite maps are judged by how often the team chooses to play it. Not based on their performance on those maps.

If you bet, I suggest betting Bitcoin at http://nitrogenesports.eu

Map Preference

Astralis’s favorite maps:

Overpass Mirage Nuke

Astralis’s least favorite maps:

Cbble Cache Inferno

OpTic’s favorite maps:

Cbble Cache Train

OpTic’s least favorite maps:

Mirage Overpass Nuke

We know that Optic will ban Mirage and Overpass against Astralis. We also know that Astralis will ban cbble and cache against Optic (assuming Astralis takes them seriously enough to study).

Likely veto process:

Optic bans mirage

Astralis bans cbble

Astralis bans cache

Optic bans overpass

Optic bans nuke

Astralis bans inferno (they will likely choose to remove a map that they cannot study Optic’s playstyle on)

Train

Player vs Player Expectations

We have the following data from when Optic played Astralis on Nuke at DreamHack Las Vegas 2017 and when Optic played Astralis on Train at ELEAGUE Major 2017

RUSH vs Astralis

Xyp9x 1.00 6:6 50.00% dupreeh 1.00 10:10 50.00% gla1ve 1.75 7:4 63.64% device 0.54 7:13 35.00% Kjaerbye 1.33 8:6 57.14%

NAF vs Astralis

Xyp9x 1.25 5:4 55.56% dupreeh 0.44 4:9 30.77% gla1ve 0.55 6:11 35.29% device 0.63 5:8 38.46% Kjaerbye 0.60 6:10 37.50%

mixwell vs Astralis

Xyp9x 0.86 6:7 46.15% dupreeh 0.70 7:10 41.18% gla1ve 0.83 5:6 45.45% device 0.75 6:8 42.86% Kjaerbye 0.86 6:7 46.15%

tarik vs Astralis

Xyp9x 2.33 7:3 70.00% dupreeh 0.25 3:12 20.00% gla1ve 1.17 7:6 53.85% device 0.27 3:11 21.43% Kjaerbye 0.70 7:10 41.18%

Hiko vs Astralis

Xyp9x 0.00 0:2 0.00% dupreeh 0.80 4:5 44.44% gla1ve 0.00 0:5 0.00% device 0.20 1:5 16.67% Kjaerbye 0.25 1:4 20.00%

This is not nearly enough data to draw a sufficient conclusion, however, it suggests which players may stack up well against the Astralis players. Obviously Hiko must improve his performance. Device is very likely to perform well against Optic. Thus Optic, if they are smart, have studied how to shut down device on likely maps they will play against Astralis. Dupreeh is also likely to perform well based on these limited statistics.

Recent Activity

? indicates that their profile is set to private

Name Hours (last 2 weeks) RUSH 40 NAF 41 mixwell ? tarik 34 stanislaw 45

Name Hours (last 2 weeks) device 43 Kjaerbye 39 dupreeh 40 Xyp9x 46 gla1ve 34

Their CSGO activity is about equal. Nothing to write about. But both activities are low considering that they both should be preparing for the tournament.

Map Specific Analysis

Likely maps to be played are: Train, Inferno or Nuke

Retakes and holds…

Astralis…

inferno

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 4(/6) 66.7% T bomb hold rate 1(/1) 100.0%

train

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 7(/18) 38.9% T bomb hold rate 8(/11) 72.7%

nuke

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 6(/16) 37.5% T bomb hold rate 10(/16) 62.5%

OpTic…

inferno

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 3(/5) 60.0% T bomb hold rate 1(/1) 100.0%

train

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 1(/8) 12.5% T bomb hold rate 9(/14) 64.3%

nuke

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 0(/0) NaN% T bomb hold rate 0(/3) 0.0%

It is clear that in terms of retakes and holds, Astralis outranks Optic in every respect on these three maps.

Pistol Analysis…

Astralis…

inferno

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 2(/2) 100.0% T Pistol Round Win Rate 0(/2) 0.0% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 2(/4) 50.0% Map wins with CT pistol 2(/2) 100.0% Map wins with T pistol 0(/0) NaN% Map wins with both pistols 0(/0) NaN% Map losses without CT pistol 0(/0) NaN% Map losses without T pistol 0(/2) 0.0% Map losses without both pistols 0(/0) NaN%

train

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 2(/5) 40.0% T Pistol Round Win Rate 0(/5) 0.0% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 2(/10) 20.0% Map wins with CT pistol 2(/2) 100.0% Map wins with T pistol 0(/0) NaN% Map wins with both pistols 0(/0) NaN% Map losses without CT pistol 2(/3) 66.7% Map losses without T pistol 2(/5) 40.0% Map losses without both pistols 2(/3) 66.7%

nuke

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 3(/7) 42.9% T Pistol Round Win Rate 4(/7) 57.1% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 7(/14) 50.0% Map wins with CT pistol 2(/3) 66.7% Map wins with T pistol 3(/4) 75.0% Map wins with both pistols 2(/3) 66.7% Map losses without CT pistol 1(/4) 25.0% Map losses without T pistol 1(/3) 33.3% Map losses without both pistols 1(/3) 33.3%

OpTic…

inferno

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 1(/1) 100.0% T Pistol Round Win Rate 0(/1) 0.0% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 1(/2) 50.0% Map wins with CT pistol 1(/1) 100.0% Map wins with T pistol 0(/0) NaN% Map wins with both pistols 0(/0) NaN% Map losses without CT pistol 0(/0) NaN% Map losses without T pistol 0(/1) 0.0% Map losses without both pistols 0(/0) NaN%

train

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 2(/3) 66.7% T Pistol Round Win Rate 1(/3) 33.3% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 3(/6) 50.0% Map wins with CT pistol 1(/2) 50.0% Map wins with T pistol 1(/1) 100.0% Map wins with both pistols 1(/1) 100.0% Map losses without CT pistol 0(/1) 0.0% Map losses without T pistol 1(/2) 50.0% Map losses without both pistols 0(/1) 0.0%

nuke

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 1(/2) 50.0% T Pistol Round Win Rate 1(/2) 50.0% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 2(/4) 50.0% Map wins with CT pistol 0(/1) 0.0% Map wins with T pistol 0(/1) 0.0% Map wins with both pistols 0(/1) 0.0% Map losses without CT pistol 1(/1) 100.0% Map losses without T pistol 1(/1) 100.0% Map losses without both pistols 1(/1) 100.0%

There is not enough pistol data to draw conclusions from. However, it is clear that Astralis is very weak on Train pistols, and when they lose pistols they usually lose the map. If Optic can manage to win both pistols on Train, they likely will win the map (granted they don’t get eco’d).

Performing Eco’s and Getting Eco’d…

Astralis…

inferno

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON…

Second round win rate on inferno: 2(/2) (100.0%) – CT: 2(/2) (100.0%) – T: 0(/0) (NaN%)

Third round win rate on inferno: 2(/2) (100.0%) – CT: 2(/2) (100.0%) – T: 0(/0) (NaN%)

Fourth round win rate on inferno: 2(/2) (100.0%) – CT: 2(/2) (100.0%) – T: 0(/0) (NaN%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON…

Second round win rate on inferno: 0(/2) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/0) (NaN%) – T: 0(/2) (0.0%)

Third round win rate on inferno: 1(/2) (50.0%) – CT: 0(/0) (NaN%) – T: 1(/2) (50.0%)

Fourth round win rate on inferno: 0(/2) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/0) (NaN%) – T: 0(/2) (0.0%)

So, Astralis has never performed an eco on inferno on Inferno. They also have never been eco’d. They have won only 1 of 2 first gun rounds. This data is limited.

train

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON…

Second round win rate on train: 2(/2) (100.0%) – CT: 2(/2) (100.0%) – T: 0(/0) (NaN%)

Third round win rate on train: 1(/2) (50.0%) – CT: 1(/2) (50.0%) – T: 0(/0) (NaN%)

Fourth round win rate on train: 1(/2) (50.0%) – CT: 1(/2) (50.0%) – T: 0(/0) (NaN%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST…

Second round win rate on train: 1(/8) (12.5%) – CT: 0(/3) (0.0%) – T: 1(/5) (20.0%)

Third round win rate on train: 1(/8) (12.5%) – CT: 0(/3) (0.0%) – T: 1(/5) (20.0%)

Fourth round win rate on train: 4(/8) (50.0%) – CT: 2(/3) (66.7%) – T: 2(/5) (40.0%)

So, Astralis has never been eco’d on train. They have performed an eco one time. They are very weak at winning the first gun round.

nuke

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON…

Second round win rate on nuke: 5(/7) (71.4%) – CT: 1(/3) (33.3%) – T: 4(/4) (100.0%)

Third round win rate on nuke: 5(/7) (71.4%) – CT: 1(/3) (33.3%) – T: 4(/4) (100.0%)

Fourth round win rate on nuke: 4(/7) (57.1%) – CT: 1(/3) (33.3%) – T: 3(/4) (75.0%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST…

Second round win rate on nuke: 1(/7) (14.3%) – CT: 1(/4) (25.0%) – T: 0(/3) (0.0%)

Third round win rate on nuke: 2(/7) (28.6%) – CT: 1(/4) (25.0%) – T: 1(/3) (33.3%)

Fourth round win rate on nuke: 4(/7) (57.1%) – CT: 2(/4) (50.0%) – T: 2(/3) (66.7%)

Interesting statistics here. Astralis is weak at anti-eco’s on CT nuke. Only 1 of 3 CT pistols they won resulted in a successful anti-eco. They are also weak at performing ecos on nuke.

OpTic…

Not enough inferno data

train

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON…

Second round win rate on train: 3(/3) (100.0%) – CT: 2(/2) (100.0%) – T: 1(/1) (100.0%)

Third round win rate on train: 2(/3) (66.7%) – CT: 1(/2) (50.0%) – T: 1(/1) (100.0%)

Fourth round win rate on train: 1(/3) (33.3%) – CT: 1(/2) (50.0%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST…

Second round win rate on train: 1(/3) (33.3%) – CT: 1(/1) (100.0%) – T: 0(/2) (0.0%)

Third round win rate on train: 3(/3) (100.0%) – CT: 1(/1) (100.0%) – T: 2(/2) (100.0%)

Fourth round win rate on train: 2(/3) (66.7%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 2(/2) (100.0%)

So, Optic has never been eco’d on train. They have performed 1 eco out of 3 opportunities and they have only lost 1 out of 6 first gun rounds.

nuke

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON…

Second round win rate on nuke: 2(/2) (100.0%) – CT: 1(/1) (100.0%) – T: 1(/1) (100.0%)

Third round win rate on nuke: 1(/2) (50.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 1(/1) (100.0%)

Fourth round win rate on nuke: 0(/2) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST…

Second round win rate on nuke: 0(/2) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

Third round win rate on nuke: 0(/2) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

Fourth round win rate on nuke: 0(/1) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/0) (NaN%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

So Optic has never been eco’d on nuke. They have also never performed an eco. They have won only 1 of 4 first gun rounds.

Overall Map Results…

Astralis…

inferno

Map Map Win Proportion Map Win Rate Round Win Rate CT Half Win Rate T Half Win Rate

de_inferno 2/2 100% 59% 100% 50%

Map CT Half Win Rate CT Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting CT

de_inferno 100% (2/2) 73% (22/30) 100% (2/2)

Map T Half Win Rate T Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting T

de_inferno 50% (1/2) 40% (9/22) 0% (0/0)

Despite good results, Astralis has never chosen to play on Inferno.

train

Map Map Win Proportion Map Win Rate Round Win Rate CT Half Win Rate T Half Win Rate

de_train 3/5 60% 47% 40% 60%

Map CT Half Win Rate CT Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting CT

de_train 40% (2/5) 47% (23/48) 100% (2/2)

Map T Half Win Rate T Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting T

de_train 60% (3/5) 47% (35/73) 33% (1/3)

nuke

Map Map Win Proportion Map Win Rate Round Win Rate CT Half Win Rate T Half Win Rate

de_nuke 5/7 71% 59% 57% 66%

Map CT Half Win Rate CT Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting CT

de_nuke 57% (4/7) 58% (48/82) 75% (3/4)

Map T Half Win Rate T Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting T

de_nuke 66% (4/6) 59% (47/79) 66% (2/3)

OpTic…

inferno

Map Map Win Proportion Map Win Rate Round Win Rate CT Half Win Rate T Half Win Rate

de_inferno 1/1 100% 59% 100% 0%

Map CT Half Win Rate CT Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting CT

de_inferno 100% (1/1) 73% (11/15) 100% (1/1)

Map T Half Win Rate T Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting T

de_inferno 0% (0/1) 41% (5/12) 0% (0/0)

train

Map Map Win Proportion Map Win Rate Round Win Rate CT Half Win Rate T Half Win Rate

de_train 2/3 66% 54% 0% 66%

Map CT Half Win Rate CT Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting CT

de_train 0% (0/3) 37% (14/37) 100% (1/1)

Map T Half Win Rate T Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting T

de_train 66% (2/3) 68% (30/44) 50% (1/2)

nuke

Map Map Win Proportion Map Win Rate Round Win Rate CT Half Win Rate T Half Win Rate

de_nuke 0/2 0% 25% 0% 0%

Map CT Half Win Rate CT Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting CT

de_nuke 0% (0/2) 23% (3/13) 0% (0/0)

Map T Half Win Rate T Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting T

de_nuke 0% (0/2) 26% (8/30) 0% (0/2)

Fun Facts…

Astralis…

Astralis wins the map 81.82% of the time when dupreeh’s frag count is equal to or above 15

Astralis wins the map 0.00% of the time when dupreeh’s frag count is equal to or below 15

Astralis wins the map 88.89% (16/18) of the time when Kjaerbye’s rating is equal to or above 1

Best performer of past 2 months: device (1.23 average rating)

Best opponent of past 2 months: byali (1.24 average rating)

OpTic…

OpTic wins the map 80.00% of the time when NAF’s frag count is equal to or above 20

OpTic wins the map 16.67% of the time when NAF’s frag count is equal to or below 15

OpTic wins the map 100.00% of the time when mixwell’s frag count is equal to or above 20

Hiko has not yet acquired 25 or more frags in one map while a member of OpTic

Best performer of past 2 months: RUSH (1.04 average rating)

Best opponent of past 2 months: dupreeh (1.38 average rating)

Prediction…

There is nothing to suggest that OpTic has the ability to defeat Astralis on any map. Astralis would need to significantly underperform, or Optic would need to significantly overperform for an upset to occur. If any upset does occur, it’s likely that it will occur on train, since Astralis is very weak at winning pistols on train. Current odds look about right, OpTic ML @ 3.8, Astralis ML @ 1.3 with a spread of 4.5.