This is the first of a five-part series covering various issues surrounding the MLS CBA. You can read future parts here.

The 2020 MLS season — which will be the league’s 25th — is set to start on Feb. 29. And even before that, the league will be participating in the Concacaf Champions League, to say nothing of preseason training which starts up next week. The strides the league has taken since launching in 1996 are hard to quantify — in part due to the league’s opaque structure and byzantine roster rules.

Still, the league has grown from 10 teams at the start of its existence, survived near-extinction at the start of the 21st century and now sits on the cusp of a robust 30-team league.

The 2020 season could represent a turning point for the league, with a new media deal on the horizon and the North American 2026 World Cup not far off. Both of those events stand to help shape the league for years in the future. But in the short term, MLS has a large hurdle to jump over: a new Collective Bargaining Agreement with the MLS Players Association.

Like most sports leagues in the United States, the CBA governs how an organization operates between management (MLS and its owners) and the employees (the players). From salaries to player obligations to travel to drug testing to scheduling, the CBA outlines who is responsible for what, and who gets what.

The 2015 agreement was a fairly contentious negotiation, with the league and players coming to an accord seemingly moments before the season was to start. Many observers believed the players left a lot of money on the table, opting to focus most of their energy on obtaining Free Agency, which they did receive — in a very limited sense.

This time around, the MLSPA has indicated they are willing to follow through with a strike if they’re not satisfied with the league’s proposals. While the MLSPA has presented a united front in public, there are several factors which could test their resolve. The biggest of which is that the group of largely billionaire owners is far better positioned to withstand a work stoppage than the far less wealthy players, even with a more substantial war chest than they had last time around.

That said, the league is reticent to go through a work-stoppage either. MLS faces a number of headwinds not endured by other soccer leagues around the world, or in the United States specifically. As no better than the sixth or seventh most popular sports league in the country (and no better than the third most popular soccer league), MLS can ill afford a prolonged work stoppage where consumers can take their sporting dollars elsewhere. The league continues to suffer from a relative lack of mainstream media attention, and middling television ratings could mean that what fans the league does have don’t come back.

That’s not to say the league doesn’t have momentum, however. There are still a number of potential owners who want to bring MLS to their cities as evidenced by the ever-increasing expansion fees. Soccer United Marketing continues to provide the league with a significant source of income, and the 2026 World Cup promises to be a financial bonanza unlike the country has ever seen, especially with the expanded 48-team format.

Thus, it behooves both sides to come up with a deal to continue to ensure nothing interferes with the upward trajectory of the league. The MLS Players Association on Tuesday launched an online hub outlining the priorities they hope shape the next CBA. MLS has maintained radio/print/video silence, a tactic they employed during the 2015 negotiations as well. It’s unlikely MLS will provide much in the way of a formal update until a deal is done (they did not respond to a request for comment to this story). It appears the MLSPA will be somewhat more open about progress — or lack thereof — as the deadline to reach a deal approaches.

With the MLSPA release of their four main “priorities” (and my own on/off record interviews), we can at least see where some of the sticking points in reaching an agreement are, and handicap the likelihood of an agreement — or strike.

Free agency

Background: The MLSPA regularly touts that one of their major successes in the 2015 negotiations was securing some form of free agency, which they say was something that MLS had previously maintained was never going to happen. That said, the free agency they obtained is limited.

Current agreement: There is a 28-age/8-year service requirement to qualify for free agency. There are some significant restrictions, including a maximum salary increase for signing with a new team depending on previous salary:

Players earning up to $100,000 in base salary: 125%;

Players earning between $100,000 and $200,000 in base salary: 120%;

Players earning more than $200,000 in base salary: 115%

There are also limits on how many free agents (2) a team can sign, and a quirk which can cause Designated Players who otherwise qualify for free agency to lose their rights based on the offer his old team makes (Ozzie Alonso fell into this category, and MLS constructed a convoluted mechanism to get him to Minnesota, his preferred destination according to sources).

What the Union is looking for: A simplified system, with players able to qualify for free agency at a younger age with less service years. “Everyone should be able to choose where they want to work, especially once they have a certain level of experience,” said Seattle Sounders midfielder and player representative Harry Shipp. The MLSPA hasn’t said outright what they’re looking for, but a system that allows more players to participate in free agency earlier is obviously the goal.

What MLS is looking for: Player/cost control and cost certainty.

Chances of an agreement: Decent. Based on conversations I’ve had, it seems like there is an understanding that the free agency system as constructed is overly restrictive and convoluted. The union seems pretty confident that the league will agree to some reduction in age and/or service time. Whether some of the other restrictions (compensation maximums) are lifted is another issue, but it’s likely the Union would agree to give that up in exchange for getting more players to participate in free agency earlier in their careers.

Part II (Compensation) to come...