The outcomes of two events, one Friday and one Sunday, will have huge and long-lasting effects on the US space exploration program.

Friday morning, NASA will announce the winners of CCiCap, the next round of NASA's Commercial Crew program. CCiCap is short for Commercial Crew Integrated Capability, and NASA's choices for CCiCap could have a profound influence on which companies become players in any future commercial space passenger service to low Earth orbit (LEO).

NASA's Commercial Crew program has been intended to regain American access to the International Space Station and, in so doing, jump-start a commercial launch industry. So far, the Commercial Crew program has been run on a payment-for-milestones basis, where a company is paid a set reward for each milestone it achieves. NASA terms the agreements "partnerships," where each company is a partner with NASA in a pre-agreed development program.

NASA has an informal agreement with Virginia Congressional Representative Frank Wolf that requires it to limit the next round of competitors to three winners. NASA gains, in return, an end to Wolf's ardent opposition — and he chairs the committee that controls NASA's budget. Two companies will receive full awards and one will receive only half of its request for NASA funding for the next period. The next period will begin this month and run through May 2014.

The first round of the Commercial Crew program began in 2009. NASA published a request for proposals for commercially developed spacecraft to carry astronauts to the International Space Station. Thirty-six companies applied for funding from an initial $150 million, and 5 won, but $100 million of the money was diverted to the Constellation program by Rep. Richard Shelby of Alabama. In the end, only $50M was divided among the five companies.

The second round ran through last month. This time there were only 4 winners, Blue Origin, Sierra Nevada Corporation, SpaceX, and Boeing, which divided a total of $315.5 million (out of an original request for $830 million). All of the companies have achieved their original milestones.

The winners of the next round have been hotly anticipated by the space community. Alliant Techsystems (ATK) surprised many by entering a new rocket and space capsule, composed of pieces from other programs, in the CCiCap competition. They've been engaged in a heavy political lobbying effort, causing cynics to bet that ATK will displace one of the previous companies. Blue Origin had been expected to drop out of this particular round, so the competitors are nominally ATK, SpaceX, Boeing, and Sierra Nevada. Each is developing a commercial passenger system to low Earth orbit, with the initial tickets to be purchased by NASA for passage to the International Space Station.

Far, far, far away

Sunday's event will be the equally hotly anticipated arrival of the Mars Science Laboratory "Curiosity" spacecraft. The big rover was far too large to land using any of the methods NASA has used in the past, and the only viable choice was a rocket-powered "skycrane" that will lower Curiosity to the surface and then speed away. There are several other highly complex events in the landing sequence, making Curiosity in some ways much more complex than the Apollo Moon landings. If you haven't yet watched "7 Minutes of Terror" video, you'll be stunned.

If the skycrane landing sequence is successful, it will probably have a heavy influence on techniques for both future manned and unmanned exploration. If it doesn't succeed, no one may have the guts to try it again for quite a long time. The same thing can be said about Curiosity's supersonic parachute, and the landing of such a large spacecraft (1 ton) on a planetary surface. Curiosity is a big mobile laboratory with several instruments, and it has the potential to harvest an amazing trove of scientific data, including information on whether there is life on Mars.

Because of the current 14-minute communications delay between Earth and Mars, the entire landing process must take place without any possible human intervention. The time between Curiosity's 13,000mph atmospheric entry and landing is about 7 minutes (hence the video name), during which time Curiosity operators and fans will be gripping their chairs tightly. By the time we find out what happened, it will all be long over. If it doesn't go well, Curiosity's creators will simply hear the heartbreaking, tragic, plaintive and proverbial sound of dead silence.

If it all works, then there will be some late night/early morning celebrating at NASA facilities.