Peter Chalk, a counterterrorism specialist with Rand Corporation, was in India recently to deliver a lecture. He speaks to Sanjeev Verma on the South Asian scenario:

What are the major challenges before South Asia in its fight against terrorism?

South Asia confronts a range of challenges in its fight against terrorism. Principal among these are the range of extremist groups that exist in the region, which span the spectrum of ethno-nationalist, communist, religious and sectarian movements; numerous ungoverned spaces where militants can plan, recruit and organise; the existence of state entities that have been prepared to support violent radical movements as a deliberate tenet of foreign policy; porous borders that have been extremely difficult to police; and a lack of international cooperation, especially in terms of intelligence sharing.

What is the impact of Afghanistan’s opium trade?

Taliban retains monopolistic control over Afghanistan’s booming opium “industry”, deriving as much as 60% of its operational income from the production and trafficking of heroin, most of which is exported to Europe. As such, there is little opportunity for other groups such as al-Qaida Central (AQC) and its affiliate al-Qaida in South Asia (AQIS), Islamic State, Jaish-e-Muhammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) to make concerted inroads into the trade to bankroll their own terrorist operations. That said, the money that Taliban has derived from opiates, estimated to be around $150 million a year, has allowed the movement to sustain a high-level insurgency which has in turn severely undermined the stability of a state that has for many years acted as a base of operations for jihadist groups, several of which have an explicit anti-India agenda.

What about the looming threat of IS in the region, specifically India, as many people have joined IS in the past?

The biggest threat related to Islamic State is the return of South Asian militants who volunteered to fight for the group in the Middle East and who are now starting to return home. These veterans have extensive combat experience that can be used for conducting high-level terrorist strikes and are now endowed with an aura of jihadist “credibility” other aspiring Islamists will doubtless be drawn to. These dangers should be a concern to several countries in the region, including India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Which countries have the best counterterrorism policy?

The UK, France, Canada, Australia, Singapore, and the US are all examples of countries that have developed relatively effective counterterrorist policies. Some of their unique aspects include intelligence-led policing that draws on both classified and open-source information; a heavy focus on community engagement; institution of rigorous structures of accountability and oversight to monitor and control executive agencies of the state; regular interaction with the public to explain the purpose and justification for specific actions taken in the name of national security; for the most part measured responses that do not unduly threaten the norms of liberal democracy; efforts to foster “soft” hearts and minds programmes to “de-bunk” militant ideology and propaganda; and the consolidation of formal fusion centres that allow for effective inter-agency cooperation and coordination.

How can governments keep a check on internet, social media platforms and other communication platforms used by terror groups?

I think the best approach is a multi-faceted strategy. Legislation obviously needs to be in place that allows law enforcement authorities to monitor, identify, block and remove any malignant information that is deemed to pose a national security threat. At the same time, independent monitoring agencies should be set up to ensure that these laws and regulations are only directed against extremist electronic propaganda and do not serve to undermine freedom of expression or net neutrality. In addition, efforts should be made to channel the efforts of service providers, community groups and communication experts to develop effective counter-messaging campaigns that credibly de-bunk terrorist cyber-messaging and promote awareness among the youth so they are able to make informed and educated choices of what they see and read online. Finally, filtering tools and algorithms that trace specific patterns of cyber interactions need to be fine-tuned so that preemptive digital interventions can be consistently pushed to social media users who exhibit traits that may be indicative of an early move to radicalisation.

What will be the fallout of changes to Article 370 of the Indian Constitution?

The abrogation of Article 370 was a key pledge of Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the election trail so it should come as no surprise. I think within India, at large, it has been a popular move and is seen as bringing in an outlier state back into the mainstream of the national polity. However, within Kashmir itself, I believe, it will merely stoke civil unrest or discontent by further fuelling perceptions of anti-Muslim marginalisation and this will inevitably play into the hands of jihadi outfits, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and JeM, which will be able to leverage it for their own ideological and recruitment efforts.