It’s also true that Belichick loves to shock his N.F.L. colleagues by doing something radical or at least unconventional, so Stidham — whom Belichick calls “Stid” — could still be the plan under center. Having watched Stidham in the preseason and in practice sessions, Belichick undoubtedly knows the quarterback’s capabilities. After Brady’s rookie season in 2000, the Patriots knew they could uproot Drew Bledsoe if necessary. In that light, maybe Belichick is planning moves with the knowledge that his team has talent to build on at quarterback.

But don’t expect the rest of the N.F.L. to buy that just yet. Belichick’s Patriots have been making the rest of the N.F.L. jumpy and paranoid for too long, and the silence from Foxborough about the team’s plans to replace Brady has people expecting a Patriots gambit involving a quarterback. Adding fuel to that suspicion was New England’s hiring of Eliot Wolf as a personnel consultant last month. Wolf, a former Cleveland assistant general manager who also spent 14 years in the Green Bay front office, is the son of the longtime N.F.L. executive Ron Wolf.

Ron Wolf was general manager of the thriving 1990s Packers, and an influential figure in draft circles. His best-known maxim was that an N.F.L. team should select a quarterback in some round of every annual draft. Wolf was also very close to Bill Parcells, one of Belichick’s early mentors.

“I would be surprised if by Friday night, the Patriots don’t pull a quarterback off the board in this draft,” said Mark Dominik, the former Tampa Bay general manager who is now an analyst for SiriusXM N.F.L. Radio. “Whether it’s in Round 1, 2 or 3 — just to be in competition. Because they’ve had success in finding guys who can compete in this league at that spot.”

As with many players in the pre-draft process, there is disagreement about whether Tagovailoa or Herbert has the better N.F.L. future. And almost all of it has to do with Tagovailoa’s recovery and durability after recent hip surgery.

“Will Tua be there playing for you this year? Yes, but the real question is: Will he be there in 2023 or 2024?” said Gil Brandt, the former longtime Cowboys executive and another SiriusXM analyst. “All these doctors are giving good reports on Tua, but they don’t say what his shelf life will be.”

Belichick, however, will not be going into that medical evaluation blind. Nick Saban, Tagovailoa’s coach at Alabama, has been friends with Belichick for roughly 40 years, and the duo talk and share information frequently.