Gov. Scott Walker's plans to balance the state budget by cutting spending and public workers' take-home pay will slow the state's economic recovery, according to projections by a UW-Madison economist.

An estimated 21,843 jobs will be lost over the next year or two as public agencies and workers are able to spend less in their communities, said Steven Deller, a professor of applied economics who studied the ripple effects of Walker's budget-repair bill and two-year budget proposal.

"That's not just a bump in the road," Deller said. "That's a speed bump."

Walker is trying to erase a projected $3.6 billion, two-year budget deficit through spending cuts and a requirement that public workers pay more toward their retirement and health benefits. He's also pledged to create 250,000 jobs in the next four years.

While Deller said nearly any method of closing the budget gap would carry "economic pain," the path Walker has chosen will pack a punch.

The Republican governor has repeatedly ruled out tax increases, saying they would hurt the business climate, and says the new benefit contributions will prevent the need to lay off thousands of government workers. His spokesman, Cullen Werwie, said it's the right course.