One of the biggest stories of the 2016 Election was that of the colossal failure of polls to capture the mood of the country. The pollsters predicted monumental victory for Clinton, yet she was crushed. Clearly polls were not telling the whole story.





When trying to gauge something as complex as public opinion, it's important to consider many different signals. Polls have their place as one such signal, but they often suffer from sampling bias and feature questions with wording that subtly skew responses. Polls can be useful, but one must be aware of their shortcomings and consider their results accordingly. They are only one of the many signals that one should be using to get a full picture of public opinion.

One of these additional signals is television ratings for news/opinion programs.





In the wake of the Mueller report, it is apparent that many on the Left have lost enthusiasm in politics to the point where they are tuning out and turning off the dominant Leftist station on cable, MSNBC. Rachel Maddow's viewership numbers have been collapsing along with those of a number of other major MSNBC programs while Fox News' numbers have been relatively stable. CNN, whose viewership (aside from unwatched airport televisions) consists mainly of those on the Left, has collapsed almost to the point of total irrelevance.





In the week immediately following the release of the Mueller report in late March, there was a visible drop in MSNBC's overall viewership numbers, which were down 13% from the week prior to the report's release [1].





These numbers only tell the story in the week following Mueller's report all the way back in late March however. How has MSNBC fared in the intervening time between then and now?





Not too well.





Consider the entire month of May. In May, MSNBC's flagship program featuring Rachel Maddow was down over 500,000 average nightly viewers compared to its performance in the first quarter of the year prior to the release of the Mueller report. More broadly, MSNBC's viewership among the key 25 - 54 age group in May collapsed with a prime time 26% decline and a full day 32% decline versus May 2018 [2].





This data paints a picture of declining interest in MSNBC's product, which is Leftist agenda driven reporting. Now while MSNBC's lost viewers are likely not packing up and moving over to Fox News, their declining enthusiasm bodes well for President Trump and the Republicans.





As primary season heats up, keep an eye on television ratings along with the polls. If MSNBC continues to pull in weak ratings it will tell us that enthusiasm for Democrat primary candidates is also weak.





---





[1] - https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/rachel-maddows-suffer-after-mueller-report-determined-no-collusion

[2] - https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/may-2019-ratings-msnbc-remains-one-of-basic-cables-most-watched-networks-but-sees-losses-among-adults-25-54/403786/







