2016 Tour Down Under Stage 1 Preview

THE ROUTE

A difficult stage but still set to end in a sprint. Extreme heat will play a factor with a forecast of 38C for the Barossa Valley, site of the finishing laps taking in Lyndoch, Williamstown and Cockatoo Valley.

Yettie Road provides a sharp test within those laps, and could catch some out as it is an uncategorised climb. It is, however, too far from the finish to create real gaps, but weights in the legs of the sprinters are always welcome in my book.

THE FAVOURITES

After Ewan’s People’s Choice Classic win, and with the strength of OGE at their home race, it is impossible to go past the diminutive Australian. If he fails, OGE could also rely on a bonus chasing Gerrans, as well as Daryl Impey and Michel Albasini.

Outside of OGE, Swift, Wippert and Pelucchi look most likely. Swift especially could deal with a harder race, so Sky may look to push as they did on Sunday. Wippert has form in Australia from his days wth Drapac, and while Pelucchi didn’t look stellar on Sunday, his leadout was perfect. However Nizzolo will prove the biggest challenge as a fellow second tier sprinter.

Possible upset winners include names such as: Kump, Howard, Blythe, Martinelli and UniSA rider Shaw.

A breakaway has next to no chance of succeeding on the day.

***** Caleb Ewan

**** Nizzolo

*** -

** Swift, Wippert

Pelucchi, Kump, Blythe

THE INTRIGUE

The heat will shock riders coming from the European winter, regardless of training camps Down Under, nothing prepares riders whose last races were autumn classics in somewhat torrid conditions for 38C, dry, heat.

Furthermore we will see who really cares about this race, as some teams will protect key riders and attempt to set up their sprinters, while others may just roll in.

ONWARDS

For the rest of the race an the season, this will tell us little. The winner here will rocket up in predictions for the next day and for the final stage, but little else may be extrapolated. GC riders will look to avoid crashes and survive the heat, but we should not expect anything visibly serious to occur.