COUNTDOWN TO IOWA ... FIVE days Presented by the United States Postal Service

With Daniel Strauss, Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (https://subscriber.politicopro.com/proinfo)


TROUBLE BACK HOME — Rand Paul’s had a better week as he preps for his return to the main stage debate on Thursday, but he did pick up some trouble at home. Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, a potential self-funding Democrat who’s also openly gay, announced he will challenge Paul, who’s running in both the presidential and Senate races simultaneously. When asked if Gray’s entrance would affect how long he stays in the presidential race, Paul gave a flat “no.”

— “The people of Kentucky elected me because I’m conservative. I work very hard on balancing the budget. I turned in over $2 million from my own office budget to try and help the treasury and help give money back to the taxpayers. And I think that will be rewarded in Kentucky as the election goes forward,” Paul said. “But for right now we’re working very hard to show what the American people want.” Paul also noted that he believes that by him being on the national stage that “gives Kentucky a bigger voice in matters before the public.” Read more about Paul’s return to the main stage debate here: http://politi.co/1SIO4zH

SKELETONS IN THE CLOSET — "Old NRSC oppo book details John Kennedy's Democratic past,” by Campaign Pro’s Kevin Robillard: Popular GOP Louisiana state Treasurer John Kennedy has a glaring weakness as he starts a U.S. Senate run, which he announced Tuesday: He was a Democrat until 2007. And when he ran for Senate in 2004 as a Democrat, the National Republican Senatorial Committee prepared an oppo book on how to beat him, which a source provided to Campaign Pro. http://politico.pro/1ZR0g0p

LAST OFF THE ISLAND — “Inside Marco Rubio’s survival strategy,” by POLITICO’s Eli Stokols and Marc Caputo in Des Moines: “Marco Rubio won’t finish first in Iowa's caucuses six days from now, but he and his allies have increasingly positioned him to make a third-place showing look like the victory they always wanted. ... For months he has been playing the expectations game — and hearing a chorus of conservatives carping about his campaign’s cool, confident approach. But now, with Donald Trump taking the lead back from Ted Cruz in Iowa, Rubio’s team says the caucuses are setting up to give their candidate the boost he needs to sideline rivals in New Hampshire.” http://politi.co/1TngoGY

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 5. Days until the 2016 election: 286.

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FIRST IN SCORE — McSally outraises Democratic opponent: Freshman Rep. Martha McSally, who’s become one of the top Republican fundraisers in the House, raised about $738,000 in the quarter, according to her campaign, giving her nearly $2 million in cash on hand. Former state Rep. Matt Heinz, one of two Democrats running for McSally’s seat in Arizona’s 2nd District, raised about $203,000 in the quarter, giving him about $306,000 in cash on hand. The other Democrat in the race, former state Rep. Victoria Steele, declined to release her numbers on Tuesday.

TV TIMEOUT — More on that IN-09 super PAC we reported on Monday: Indiana Jobs Now's first ad, "Clones," paints GOP candidate Trey Hollingsworth as different than conventional politicians. The story behind the ad is growing more conventional, though. It appears to be chock-full of B-roll shot by Hollingsworth's own campaign and posted on the YouTube account of media consultants Jamestown Associates.

— ( The same account just posted about 40 minutes of B-roll of NY-19 GOP candidate Andrew Heaney; look for the single-race super PAC backing him to put some of those clips on TV eventually.) Indiana Jobs Now's James McKay declined to identify the PAC's donors. Its first donor disclosure will be in April.

REID’S PICK ENTERS NV-03 RACE — Democrats have struggled to find a candidate for Nevada’s 3rd District, a competitive seat left vacant by GOP Rep. Joe Heck, who’s running for the Senate. But Jacky Rosen, who leads a prominent synagogue in the state, announced Tuesday that she would run. Jon Ralston reported that Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid wooed Rosen, who traveled to D.C. earlier this month and had “conversations” with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. On the GOP side, state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, Danny Tarkanian, who ran for Congress in 2012, and Michele Fiore, a conservative favorite, are all jockeying for the Republican nomination. http://bit.ly/1KDULuU

GOING TO THE TAPE — TV station airs footage of Babeu discussing punishment at school he ran: KNXV, the ABC affiliate in Phoenix, aired footage on Tuesday night of a Republican congressional candidate discussing the harsh methods used to discipline students at a boarding school he ran more than a decade ago. Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, who's considered the GOP front-runner in the race for the rural Arizona House seat Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is vacating to run for Senate, served as headmaster of the DeSisto School, a Massachusetts boarding school for troubled youths, from 1999 to 2001. Babeu played down his role at the school, which was sued by the state while he ran it and later closed, during his previous run for Congress in 2012. But the new footage appears to link Babeu more closely to practices that were later condemned by the state. http://bit.ly/1nmKKwJ

UNDER-REPRESENTED — Minorities are underrepresented in Congress relative to the population, but they lag even further in state legislatures, according to a new report from the New American Leaders Project, a group focused on expanding immigrant participation in voting and civic leadership. 62 percent of the population is white, but 86 percent of state legislators are, the report found. The remaining state legislators are 9 percent African-American, 4 percent Latino, and 2 percent Asian-American. The numbers are narrowly higher in Congress, especially among Latinos (7 percent of Congress is Hispanic). Read the report here: bit.ly/1PfTyzv

RYAN RAISES — “Ryan raises $5.3 million to wrap up 2015,” by POLITICO’s Jake Sherman: “House Speaker Paul Ryan’s political operation raised more $5.3 million in the last two months of 2015 … He is appearing at a big-dollar Chicago fundraiser Wednesday evening alongside National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden, where top-level tickets are going for $50,000. Ryan has been working to keep the NRCC’s coffers full, transferring $2.5 million to the committee in the last month of the year, bringing his total donations to $4.1 million last year. … Ryan for Congress … raised $1.7 million in the last quarter of 2015. He has $5.3 million in the bank, according to a source in Ryan’s operation. Prosperity Action PAC, his leadership committee, raised $877,000, according to a summary provided by his political team. In addition to raising $192,000 for GOP lawmakers at events, Ryan has raised more than $170,000 for the NRCC in online efforts, including $92,000 in one mailing, according to his political staff.” http://politi.co/1ZQy1ig

POLITICO MAGAZINE’S “What Works” series- “Mayors: We’re More Scared of Terrorism Than Ever” by Ben Wofford and Manuela Tobias: “With attacks in Chattanooga, San Bernardino and Philadelphia fresh in their minds, the concerns of mayors from Honolulu to New Orleans, Syracuse to Los Angeles show that the American anxiety about security extends well beyond hot rhetoric of the GOP debate stage and has hit home…” http://politi.co/1K8mby4

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ — “Donald Trump quits debate stage to stay center stage,” by POLITICO’s Shane Goldmacher, Ben Schreckinger and Katie Glueck in Marshalltown, Iowa: “With less than 150 hours before the Iowa caucuses, Trump thrust himself squarely into the center of the political conversation and the news cycle with his surprise declaration that he would boycott the final debate before voting begins in Iowa. Trump has blustered about boycotting debates multiples times before but never followed through. But the rhetoric Tuesday from Trump and his campaign team was, by far, the sternest and most forceful to date. Ted Cruz, Trump’s chief Iowa rival, immediately challenged Trump to a one-on-one debate, as his aides and supporters tried to get the hashtag “#DonaldDuck” trending on Twitter.” http://politi.co/1TmFJ46

— “Cruz backer Steve King suggests Trump is buying endorsements,” by POLITICO’s Katie Glueck in Centerville, Iowa: “Ted Cruz's most influential backers, stunned by Donald Trump's commanding lead and growing list of endorsements, opened a new line of attack against the GOP front-runner on Tuesday - suggesting the New Yorker is buying support. One of Cruz's most important surrogates in Iowa, Rep. Steve King, on Tuesday said Donald Trump has succeeded in lining up critical endorsements because he's able to make offers that are ‘awfully difficult to refuse.’” http://politi.co/1QAxqRg

— “Strategists for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Aim for Every Inch of Iowa,” by the New York Times’ Patrick Healy: “ ... With the Iowa caucuses six days away, and both campaigns seeing Mrs. Clinton with a slight edge in private polling, the Democratic race has been billed as a contest between the passion for Mr. Sanders and the organizational muscle behind Mrs. Clinton. But the gamesmanship in Mason City highlights the most consequential strategic fight underway: a neighborhood-by-neighborhood battle between two canny veterans of Iowa politics. … ’These guys are two of the best in Iowa Democratic politics,’ said John Stone, chairman of the party organization in the Mason City area, who is backing Mrs. Clinton. ‘Each knows how to win. Each could win. It’s so unpredictable, but what I do know is they’re sure trying hard.’” http://nyti.ms/23qLwKd

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “This whole thing is a disaster … I think I’ll write a book about it.” — Curt Anderson, a former Republican National Committee political director and veteran operative, on Donald Trump’s takeover of the GOP primary over the past half-year. http://politi.co/1QADoBL

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