I notice Harry Reid said yesterday that he'll schedule a Senate vote on the Ryan plan soon (no date set):

Reid said that he wanted to see if Republicans in his chamber would be as supportive of the plan as those in the House. But his hope, he added, was that the Ryan budget would ultimately fail (as is likely to happen in a Democratic-controlled Senate).

Well, obviously, it's not going to pass. I don't think a single Democrat will vote for it, not even Ben Nelson and Joe Manchin. Remember, not one Democrat supported it in the House, and those House Blue Dogs are in more dangerous electoral shape that any senator if for no other reason than that incumbent senators tend to be a little bit safer on average than incumbent House members.

The interesting question is which Republicans will vote no. Susan Collins already said she would. Olympia Snowe? You'd think, but she's got this big tea-party challenge coming up in 2012, right? So she's probably going to vote for it. Can't wait to read that press release!

I'd bet Scott Brown will vote against Ryan. He's increasingly becoming a reasonably reasonable guy. Those are your obviosos. Who else?

Tom Coburn? The Oklahoman is awfully conservative, but he proposed ending the tax break for ethanol and voted for the Bowles-Simpson report, which includes tax increases (of a highly theoretical nature I might add), so today, as far as the Norquistians are concerned, Coburn is practically a Kenyan. Plus he's retiring after this term, which is a wildcard element. He just might vote against.

Coburn is one of three Republicans in the "Gang of Six," the bipartisan group that is allegedly finding a bipartisan solution to the problem. The other two Republicans are Mike Crapo of Idaho and Saxby Chambliss of Georgia. I've not heard much from Crapo, but Chambliss has been giving interviews (to NPR, no less!) talking about how serious he is about finding revenues. If the Gang releases a plan and it is at odds with Ryan, one would think it might be kind of difficult for these three to support Ryan.

I don't see any other possible no's, so that's five at most, six if Snowe surprises me, so forty-plus Republicans in the Senate will join 234 in the House in support of the Ryan plan. Liberal bloggers have been to my reading getting a little carried away with the "Republicans scared of Ryan plan" story line, elevating one booing of Ryan in his home district into a bigger event than it really was. I don't see it. Ryan is their money. If not, then what's all this presidential talk about him in the last few days?

Mind you this is the outcome I want - I want Ryan hanging around their necks like cloves of garlic. But I also think they're still pretty bullish on it by and large.

