Bruno Gonzalez/Associated Press

Tens of thousands of students, angry at Mexico’s entrenched political powers, have taken to the streets in the last month, spreading their message with viral videos and organizing themselves using a Twitter hashtag: #yosoy132.

On Sunday, more protests popped up around the country as the presidential candidates gathered in Guadalajara for the second and last scheduled debate before the election on July 1. The debate, which was covered by my colleague Randal C. Archibold, was televised on all of Mexico’s major networks, in part, to meet a demand the students made.

But is Mexico’s burgeoning student movement, called YoSoy132 (or “I am 132″), the start of a “Mexican Spring” as its supporters have claimed?

What impact can it have on the presidential elections, on Mexico generally, and where do the comparisons to the Arab Spring, which toppled and threatened regimes, begin and end?

These questions are being widely discussed across Mexico and among Mexican-Americans since May 11 when online and offline protests grew out a contentious visit at Ibero American University by Enrique Peña Nieto, the front-runner in Mexico’s presidential election.

Chanting they did not want him at their school, the students interrupted his speech, attacking his poor human rights record as governor of Mexico State.

Then, responding three days later to the widely reported claim that the campus demonstration was organized by outside agitators, they took their campaign online with a video that went viral, showing 131 students, many displaying their student IDs; all explaining why they, not outsiders, felt the need to shout down Mr. Peña.



It was not just a matter of his recent record. Mr. Peña is the telegenic new face of the old authoritarian Institutional Revolutionary Party, also known as PRI, which ran Mexico for 71 years before it was ousted in 2000. Across Mexico there are concerns about what the return of the PRI might mean.

Eduardo Verdugo/Associated Press

The students have also focused on the close ties between Televisa and TV Azteca, the media duopoly, that has been accused of favoring the party PRI and Peña’s candidacy. It is an argument fueled by recent charges that Televisa received money in exchange for positive coverage.

WikiLeaks reveals US concerns over Televisa-Peña Nieto links in 2009 //t.co/BNVzIyNK #CopeteLeaks #YoSoy132 @EPN — Julián Esbrí (@julianesbri) 11 Jun 12

In recent weeks, the online protests have evolved into mass demonstrations in the capital and spread to other parts of the country. Newspaper columnists have described the students in heroic terms; thousands of messages about #yosoy132 have skittered across social media networks while satellite groups have appeared in Chicago and San Francisco and their videos are getting views.

Eduardo Verdugo/Associated Press

But is the label, “Mexican Spring,” a misnomer?

Here’s a look at the questions and what experts are saying are the challenges facing the movement, along with arguments that it could serve as an important voice the next president will need to listen to even if it fails to sway voters.

Can a Leaderless Movement Succeed?

IT WAS A SCENE RIPE for satire: speakers who were described as student representatives from 74 universities took turns grabbing a microphone in a university quad, savoring his or her under-two-minutes of fame. Remaining anonymous, they cited the name of the school they were representing, pledged their support to the movement, and each added the phrase:

“Hasta la victoria siempre!”

“We’re all 132!”

It was the movement’s second assembly, and their objectives were clear: to define how they would organize, what they would fight for and what approach should be used. Nearly 12 hours later, they came away with no clear leaders and 250 declarations, proposals and demands — everything from more podcasts to a trial for President Felipe Calderón to the creation of an official #YoSoy132 newspaper to increases in funding for science.

Most people seemed excited to be a part of something, in the same way as many of the protesters involved in the Occupy movement. But what?

Whereas the demands of the Arab Spring were more clear, experts say in Mexico there is nothing limiting the movement more than its multiplicity of demands and adherence to a horizontal management structure that makes everyone and no one a leader, similar to the Occupy movement.

Manuel Gil Anton, a sociologist at El Colegio de Mexico, offered an especially astute critique of this all-inclusive approach in a recent interview where he noted that the approach creates “issues of ownership.”

In short, if one of the 74 spokesmen is interviewed by the media, others will get jealous; if another focuses on a pet proposal while failing to mention the 249 other declarations, anger rises.

YoSoy132 is fragile, Mr. Gil Anton said, “because they do not have a structure.” This could lead not just to confusion and conflict. It could also allow the group to be hijacked by outsiders, maybe even PRI supporters.

“There will be tension,” he said, “undoubtedly, and the possibility of infiltration by groups that are paid is quite likely — conducting violent acts that discredit the movement.”

THE MOST OBVIOUS DIFFERENCE between YoSoy132 and the movements in the Middle East and North Africa is the context in which they have emerged. While the tools and messaging are similar – “I am 132″ is borrowed from the successful Facebook page in Egypt called “We Are All Khaled Said,” that helped propel people into Tahrir Square — the goals are the product of different circumstances.

Protesters in Mexico are trying to influence an election, not oust dictators. “The fundamental situation is different,” said Shannon K. O’Neill, a Latin American Studies fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Tunisia, Egypt, etc., were authoritarian regimes.”

Guillermo Trejo, a Mexican political science professor at Duke University, said the rise of social protest during an election cycle should not be surprising. Protests increase by 30 percent during Mexican presidential elections.

“The rise of a university student movement should not be surprising either,” he said. “Students have a prominent place in Mexico’s dissidence hall of fame.”

AND SO FAR, THE STUDENTS’ POWER has proven to be limited in swaying voters. Mr. Peña still holds a commanding advantage over his two main competitors, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and Josefina Vazquez Mota.

Alexandre Meneghini/Associated Press

Supporters of YoSoy132 often point to recent polls showing that the presidential race tightened after the group emerged, with Mr. Peña’s lead diminishing. But that kind of tightening is typical near the end of a race, and many Mexican pollsters, of various political persuasions, have said that it will be very hard for any of Mr. Peña’s challengers to catch up to him with so little time remaining.

Mexican pollsters say the reason is partly that, for all the sudden burst of student activity, many young people are still more disengaged than angry about this year’s election.

The normal conversation heard in plazas and at bars all over Mexico where young people gather is one of frustration and resignation. And outside of Mexico City, young people are less politicized, less likely to be on social networks — and since they were children during the PRI’s previous reign, they are often less likely to be as worried about the return of the party.

The youth vote is important in this race. There are 24 million voters under age 30, nearly a third of the electorate. But they also have the lowest turnout, with the age 20 to 24 being the least likely group to vote, making it difficult for a YoSoy132 to influence the election’s outcome, or be taken seriously as a change agent.

“They are many,” said Jorge Buendia, a Mexican pollster, referring to young voters. “But they vote the least.’’

Why YoSoy132 Could Lead to a ‘Mexican Summer’

WHILE YOSOY132 STARTED at one of Mexico’s most elite private universities it quickly spread to public universities and beyond, a line rarely crossed in this highly classist society.

“One of the most striking things about the movement is how its message linked groups that are traditionally disconnected: both across class and political affiliation,” said Andrés Monroy-Hernández, a fellow at Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society. “Mexican universities are an emblematic class differentiator, so anything that pokes a hole through these types of class walls is quite intriguing. Furthermore, the movement has also appealed to political groups from the left and the right.”

That intermingling of left and right wingers has partly led to a leaderless, messy movement with competing goals (Mr. Monroy-Hernández described the structure as a weakness not a strength).

But when these divergent groups agree on a goal, like getting main TV networks to televise Sunday’s presidential debate, they have succeeded. If they take a similar approach in other areas, some argue that YoSoy132 could become a wedge, breaking through the partisan divisions that have kept Mexico in gridlock.

Daniel Becerril/Reuters A 132 protest in Monterrey on Sunday. The sign reads: “No Televisa,” making reference to Mexico’s dominant broadcaster.

“The common thread which runs through the movement is the student´s frustration at the lack of progress which has accompanied Mexico´s slow democratic transition,” said John Ackerman, a law professor in Mexico and a columnist for the liberal newspaper, La Jornada.

He added that an assault on the consolidated state of media may be the first point of unity.

“Regardless of who wins the 2012 presidential election,” he said, “the new president will have to engage with the students and their demands to open up and democratize television and radio.”

THE STUDENT MOVEMENT may also draw strength from frustration with the drug war. The movement has recently expanded from the capital to other cities like Guadalajara and Monterrey, where smaller protests have been held. And where drug violence has increased over the past year. Mexico’s nascent peace movement has also signaled its support for YoSoy132.

Some experts believe this suggests the movement is becoming a a generational statement not just about politics but also violence, impunity and the locked-down lifestyle that comes from crime and insecurity.

My colleague, Mr. Archibold, and I reported Monday that the candidates’ positions on the drug wars are changing in part to quell public anger with the status quo.

Mr. Trejo pointed out that young males represent most of the deaths in Mexico’s drug war, and that students without any criminal connection have often become the targets of both criminals and the authorities.

They have also been frustrated, he argued, by “a dramatic change in their daily lives — young adults can no longer go out freely to bars and discos and increasingly have to limit their socializing to their homes under their parents’ watch.”

This party explains, according to several experts, the heightened use of social media for fun and for sharing information about what is happening on Mexico’s streets. For many, Twitter and Facebook have become alternate news sources that highlights the failures of traditional outlets.

The movement’s scattershot goals, some argue, may also be a reflection of the movement’s potential. The young people involved are clearly angry about limited options in media, politics and in life. With time, supporters say, their effort could coalesce. What we see now maybe a beta version of a significant push for better government.

THEY SEEM TO CLEARLY have support and talent. With its YoSoy132 videos and other uses of social media, the movement has shown that it has the coding and technological muscle to endure in some form or another. Celebrities like Demian Bichir, the actor nominated for an Oscar this year, have also declared their support online.

Whether YoSoy132 has staying power may depend on whether other influencers or institutions get behind the movement.

“It is hard to know though if this is the start to something big, or if on July 2 (assuming no uncertainty regarding the election results), this group fades from the street and returns to the classroom,” Ms. O’Neill said at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The more likely possibility may be that it focuses less on street protests than on forms of mobilization that focus on information sharing and campaigns online.

This has happened with other efforts at mobilization in Mexico, and even though YoSoy132 started with a campus protest and shouts of “Ibero doesn’t want you,” the movement may be more at home in the world of Twitter, YouTube and Facebook.

In this case, Mr. Monroy-Hernández said, “social network technologies are as much the medium as they are the message.”

The group released this polished new video on Sunday, further pressing their case.

The hope, among many — including those who see the movement as immature and unfocused — is that YoSoy132 will become a check and balance on the next president, whoever that might be. Online and offline, there is a demand for more accountability and the pressure is mounting.

Can YoSoy132 deliver?