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Update

We saw some cooler weather over the weekend from a weak trough the moved, as well as some clearer skies around the area. But as high pressure builds in over the West this week the weather will continue to be dry and will turn warmer. Fire danger remains high and the smoke from fires burning around CA will blow back into the area.

Here is a look at the smoke forecast for today (Tuesday) from OpenSummit.com. (we have made the smoke overlays free now for first time users)

High pressure is building in over the West which will bring a continuation of the dry weather and warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Highs back into the 80s near lake level.

Southwest winds will be the predominant wind direction with smoke and haze likely continuing to push back into the area.

High pressure breaks down next week with another weak trough possibly pushing through the Pacific NW. That could cool us down and clear us out a little again, but we should stay dry through the 8th.

Long-Range:

Thursday is the first day of October. In the last few posts we have talked about the pattern possibly changing somewhat for the 2nd half of October, and possibly bringing in some much needed precipitation to at least northern CA.

The long-range models continue to show the possibility of roughing off and near the West Coast by the end of next week, around the 9th. Then possibly continuing into the 2nd half of October.

Right now that looks to likely bring more storms to the Pacific NW, with northern CA right on the edge of the storm track. Some model runs, like the GFS yesterday and last night, have hinted out some storm pushing farther south into central CA. I'm not buying into that quite yet. The MJO seems to be out of phase, and the PNA pattern is not in agreement on the models.

The European ensembles do show a negative PNA pattern by mid-October and the weeklies show increasing precipiation for the 2nd half of October over northern CA, but mostly weaker systems. the GFS and Canadian ensembles also show some precipiation working into northern CA by mid-October.

So we will continue to keep an eye on the 10th-15th time frame to see if any systems of significance will push into norther CA. It's a little early still for any big storms, but any precpitation would help with fires and smoke, so we will be watching closely and I'll be posting more regularly if systems show up in the 10 day window.

The CFSv2 climate model for October shows increasing precipitation for the Pacific NW and northern CA for October.

Then farther South into CA for November as the jet stream wakes up and shifts farther south. That's the trend as we head towards the upcoming winter season.

Here is a look at October snowfall numbers for the Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Summit over the last 50 years. Usually boom or bust, and that boom is usually from an early snowstorm near the end of October.

The Upcoming Season:

We are still watching the La Nina conditions develop for the upcoming winter season, as well as other SSTs and patterns. We will continue to watch things develop and go through possible implications for our upcoming snow season like I have already done a few times this fall.

We are also hard at work here at OpenSnow. We are developing all kinds of new tools for powder tracking this season. This week we added a Maps feature to the iOS version of the OpenSnow app. So far we have added radar, forecast radar, temperature forecasts, and snow depth maps. We have a lot more coming by this winter!

I'd sign-up now for our All Access subscription because the prices will likely increase later this fall. Get in early. We will continue to be adding features based on the feedback you have given us over the last several years.

Stay tuned...