NEW DELHI: Monsoon this year is likely hit Kerala on June 4, close to its normal arrival date of June 1, private forecaster Skymet said on Tuesday while sticking to its prediction of “below normal” monsoon rainfall over the country at 93% of the long period average (LPA).Monsoon is likely to arrive over Andaman and Nicobar islands on May 22, it said. Both onset forecasts have an error margin of ± 2 days.Skymet also forecast less than normal rainfall over all four regions of the country, with northwest and peninsular India projected to get relatively better rains at 96% and 95% of LPA, respectively. Monsoon is likely to be poorer over central India — which could see a 9% rain deficit — and eastern regions of the country.Monsoon hits the Kerala coast before moving into other parts of the country over 40-45 days, with west Rajasthan normally being the last region to come under its influence.Skymet said monsoon’s progress this year is likely to be jerky, in tune with its earlier forecast of adverse conditions for rainfall during June and July. “It appears that the initial advance of monsoon over peninsular India is going to be slow,” said Jatin Singh, MD, Skymet.The India Meteorological Department, has projected slightly better monsoon rainfall this year at 96% of LPA, saying countrywide rains in the June-September season are likely to be “near normal”. The normal range, for all-India rainfall, is 96-104% of LPA.Based on IMD’s prediction, the agriculture ministry has prepared a contingency plan for all 648 districts and set a target of foodgrain production for 2019-20 crop year (July-June) at 291 million tonnes (MT) — 10 MT higher than the estimated production for 2018-19.Asked whether such a high target can be met under near-normal monsoon performance, an official said the country had achieved a total foodgrain production of 281 MT during 2018-19, when the monsoon was “below normal” (91% of LPA).“Better planning and contingency measures may overcome deficit rainfall to an extent. The situation may turn adverse if we face a drought like situation (in case rain deficit is over 10%). We had discussed all such scenarios during the kharif preparedness conference on April 25-26,” he said, while referring to a presentation made by agriculture commissioner S K Malhotra.The presentation on ‘planning for Kharif 2019’ shows that the ministry has identified water stress regions for focussed attention during the sowing operation. These vulnerable areas include Bundelkhand (UP and MP), Vidarbha and Marathwada (Maharashtra), north interior Karnataka, Saurashtra and Kutch ( Gujarat ), Anantpur (Andhra Pradesh), Adilabad and Nizamabad (Telangana), Jharkhand and north-west Rajasthan. Most of these areas are projected to get poor rains.“As contingency measures, the ministry has set up additional seed hubs with focus on drought resistant and short duration seeds and kept its agro-climatic region-wise plan for interventions ready in ‘below normal’ or drought like situation. The plan will be activated on the ground in first week of June,” said the official.Meanwhile, the latest model forecast from US’s Climate Prediction Centre continues to give a high probability (55-60%) for El Nino, which developed in February, continuing through the monsoon season. El Nino, an abnormal warming of the east equatorial Pacific waters, usually impacts the Indian monsoon adversely.