While Oklahoma City’s playoff run is over, the 2018 offseason is rapidly approaching and the front office has a series of significant decisions to make that affect their present and future. CBA expert Danny Leroux breaks down the major options, opportunities and risks for the Thunder in The Athletic’s 2018 Offseason Preview series.

Yet again, the Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves at the mercy of a high profile unrestricted free agent. This time that star is Paul George, whom general manager Sam Presti acquired last offseason for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis.

While the organization can point to more rough injury luck, like Andre Roberson missing the second half of the year, as the reason for a disappointing 48-34 season that ended with a first-round loss to the Utah Jazz, what really matters is how George feels about the franchise and its future. Whether it is fair or not, his own read on the situation is more important than context.

While George is unquestionably the headliner, Oklahoma City has a series of other important parts of its offseason, including forward Jerami Grant’s unrestricted free agency and another looming luxury tax bill. Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams are under contract for years to come but the Thunder will need to build intelligently and proactively around them to maintain the most competitive team possible, whatever George decides to do.

Here are three key story lines to watch for Oklahoma City this offseason:

Paul George

The 28-year old swingman should decline his $20.7 million player option because he can make more in 2018-19 salary as a free agent and also secure a long-term contract. While Oklahoma City can offer George a fifth season and 8% raises (other teams can offer 5% raises at most), this is his first opportunity to be an unrestricted free agent and it will show the league what he prioritizes. While the Thunder are a clear-cut playoff team with him and finished with a +3.0 NetRtg during his minutes, despite Roberson missing half the season, George could be looking for a franchise with stronger championship upside, a younger core or a different lifestyle. If George does not want to return, OKC’s options for a sign-and-trade would be limited as many of his potential destinations have enough cap space to sign him outright. If the Thunder gets only that one season out of him, and for it to end the way it did, that is painful but also the peril of acquiring a star just one year from free agency.

Jerami Grant

George’s decision likely affects OKC’s capacity to re-sign Grant as they are probably over the luxury tax with Grant even if George leaves. The Thunder have full Bird rights on Grant and can thus spend up to his maximum but there should be teams interested in an athletic forward capable of switching on the perimeter. One key factor to consider is timing, as lower-profile free agents would be wise to strike early in such a limited market, but Presti may have to wait on George before knowing exactly what he can offer. With George being an unrestricted free agent, another suitor would be wise to force Oklahoma City’s hand in the first few days of July by making Grant a reasonable offer.

Luxury tax

Ownership ponied up for a huge $25 million luxury tax bill in 2017-18 and their willingness to pay moving forward dramatically affects Presti’s options this offseason. George is presumably in his own category but Oklahoma City will likely be over the tax even without him, especially if they re-sign Grant. It is possible that cost mitigation would be enough and they could either use the stretch provision to spread Kyle Singler’s $5 million over five seasons or use an asset to offload his full salary.

Another potentially interesting tax mitigation option could be doing something with Carmelo Anthony. While they could unilaterally stretch his $27.9 million over three seasons, another option would be to negotiate an early buyout with him whereby he leaves some money on the table to sign somewhere else before the available cap space with other teams evaporates. That, however, appears very unlikely at the moment. Currently, the tax mitigation approach seems more likely than ducking all the way under it, especially since Anthony’s expiring contract will likely give the Thunder enough breathing room to be fine in 2019-20, potentially even if George returns.

Potential Free Agents: Paul George ($20.7 million Player Option), Carmelo Anthony ($27.9 million Early Termination Option), Jerami Grant (Unrestricted), Raymond Felton (Unrestricted), Corey Brewer (Unrestricted), Josh Huestis (Unrestricted — declined fourth-year option) and Nick Collison (Unrestricted).

Likely Summer of 2018 Cap Space: None

Realistic Maximum Summer of 2018 Cap Space (using $101M estimate): None

2018 Draft Assets: Own second-round pick (No. 53) and Boston’s second-round pick (No. 57). Own first owed to Minnesota.

Potential Targets: Considering the Thunder’s luxury tax burden, it appears unlikely that they will use their full Mid-Level exception unless their books look significantly different in early July. They will need a backup point guard with Raymond Felton hitting free agency but expect another minimum contract to fill that void. They could have a little more spending power if George leaves but would be looking for a perimeter player, even a rotation level talent, will be hard to come by at their price point. Potentially Presti could hope Corey Brewer would return after a nice close to the season, roll the dice on a Jeff Green return or get Glenn Robinson III on the cheap after a lost season due to injury.

Oklahoma City will have a series of options at or near the minimum to be a depth center. That’s due to the ridiculous supply at the position, even if their spot will be less desirable because Steven Adams misses so little time. They also could be in the market for a forward, although the rotation could be solidified with if a healthier Patrick Patterson takes up some of the minutes and Roberson returns.

Pressure Scale (1-10): 8

Since George cannot receive the higher 35% max due to the Collective Bargaining Agreement’s restrictions on Designated Veteran contracts inspired by Kevin Durant, Presti has a pretty simple negotiation with him: offer the full 30% max and hope for the best. Losing George would be a massive blow for the Thunder’s long-term competitiveness and championship potential; that was always part of the gamble of trading for him in the first place. Figuring out what to do with Grant will also be tough, particularly due to the timing and constraints discussed above.

Outside of George and Grant, the front office’s main job will be filling out its roster while mitigating or eliminating the luxury tax burden. While challenging, there is a comfort level in only being able to offer small contracts to free agents because the two sides can never be that far apart in negotiations. A free agent either desires that opportunity, like Felton did this past season, or that free agent heads elsewhere.

State of the Franchise: Maximizing

At this point, Presti has less on his plate than most general managers because of the gravity of other recent decisions. It would be great if George returned but all the Thunder can do is make the best pitch possible and hope it resonates. Grant’s negotiations are more complicated but ownership’s directive on the luxury tax could end up clarifying that too because there are presumably thresholds for total spending with and without George. The Huestis situation is straight forward because the Thunder cannot offer a higher 2018-19 salary than the $2.2 million option that was declined last year.

Whatever ends up happening with George and Grant, the Thunder front office will have to maximize its limited resources to build the best possible team around Westbrook. Losing established talent would require players stepping up, but they have options like Alex Abrines and Terrence Ferguson on the perimeter that should take precedence over any newcomers. Finding Corey Brewer on the buyout market could also be instructive for the future as keeping a roster spot or two open makes sense if Oklahoma City is still in the playoff mix and wants to keep costs down.

The Thunder will be at the center of one of the biggest free-agent decisions in the last few seasons and how they respond to what George chooses to do will have long-term effects on the franchise’s ceiling and playoff viability for years to come.

MORE: The Athletic’s 2018 NBA Offseason Series analysis

(Top photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images.)