For a more recent update on Typhoon Parma, CLICK HERE

Nearly 300 people lost thier lives this past week in flooding relating to a tropical storm in the Philippines. Now, the Philippines is preparing as best it can for the much stronger Typhoon Parma which will make landfall by late or early Saturday. The Filipino government has declared a “state of calamity” for the nation and evacuation as taking place.

Typhoon Parma at 6Z Oct 2 2009 was located less than 250 miles east of Manila in the Philippines and was moving NW at 15 kts. It’s maximum sustained winds were 120 kts with gusts to 145 kts. That would be nearly 140 mph winds with gusts to over 165 mph. Seas offshore were running as high as 32 feet. The discussion below is from the 00Z report and the remarks that follow correspond with the 6Z update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. There is pretty fair agreement among the models for the storm to continue moving at its present speed to the northwest or west-northwest and make landfall in northeastern Luzon province in the Philippines. The consensus continues to be a slowing of the forward motion as the storm makes landfall late Friday or rearly Saturday. That would result in an increased threat for devastating flooding. Compounding that threat will be the high terrain in the region which will serve to simply enhance the rain intensity. While the storm is not the 165 mph storm that had been earlier forecast, it is still quite formidable and much stronger than the tropical storm that brought so much misery to the island nation less than a week ago. For about 48 hours, Parma is expected to slowly move along the northern edge of the island. Wrap around rains will no doubt be moving off the ocean on the western side of the island and bring heavy rain with gusty winds to Manila. At that point, there is a diversion in the models. About half want to take the storm on a northerly track toward Taiwan with the other half taking it more west toward Vietnam. The official forecast has the more westward trajectory in mind. Parma is expected to be weakening steadily after initial landfall but devastating rains will be the big problem following a 10-20 foot surge to the right of the landfall position.

WDPN33 PGTW 020300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)WARNING NR 18//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE

BANDS ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK INTERACTED WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. TY 19W REMAINS A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 120 KNOTS,

BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL

ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE

IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING

ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE

NORTHEAST.

A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST

PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.

B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD, ALBEIT

PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER, TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. DURING THIS PERIOD,

IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGE ALONG

THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. BY TAU 72, IT WILL CROSS INTO THE LUZON

STRAIT AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY.

C. BEYOND TAU 72, TYPHOON PARMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-

STATIONARY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND

PLACES THE SYSTEM IN A COL AREA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS

SPLIT ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH GFS AND WBAR STEERING THE

VORTEX SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PACK TOWARDS THE

WEST. THIS FORECAST GOES WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION ALBEIT AT A MUCH

SLOWER PACE.//

WTPN33 PGTW 020900

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

REMARKS:

020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 124.5E.

TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST OF

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. TY 19W CONTINUES TO TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY

OF THE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK

TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU

12. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN LUZON INTO THE

LUZON STRAIT BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE

AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH

SEVERAL AIDS (NGPS, EGRR, GFDN) CROSSING NORTH-CENTRAL LUZON AND

MOVING FURTHER INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE REMAINING AIDS (JGSM,

AVNO, WBAR AND TCLP) INDICATE A RECURVATURE SCENARIO, WITH AVNO

BEING THE MOST AGRESSIVE OF THESE (REACHING TOKYO AT TAU 120). THIS

FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD GROUPING, BUT REFLECTS THE

UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TRACKING MUCH MORE SLOWLY IN THE

AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO

TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 019

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

—

WARNING POSITION:

020600Z — NEAR 15.3N 125.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 125.0E

—

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z — 16.7N 123.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

—

24 HRS, VALID AT:

030600Z — 17.8N 121.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

—

36 HRS, VALID AT:

031800Z — 18.8N 120.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS

—

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

040600Z — 19.3N 120.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 01 KTS

—

72 HRS, VALID AT:

050600Z — 19.8N 120.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 01 KTS

—

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

—

96 HRS, VALID AT:

060600Z — 20.1N 119.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS

—

120 HRS, VALID AT:

070600Z — 19.6N 119.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY