As US officials have made clear in recent statements, oil prices and global market supply are informing administration policy on Iran’s oil sanctions, and how rapidly they can advance a scheme to get Iran’s exports down to zero.



In recent months, that’s meant officials arguing that the market could sustain further cuts in Iranian oil , which would mean fewer US waivers when the decision comes up for approval in May. The market, however, no longer seems to be supporting that.



Oil prices have been steadily increasing, and extraneous supply on the market is declining, two things which very much do not fit with the idea of the US taking more of Iran’s 1 million-plus barrels of daily supply off the market.



The admission seems to have already been made, with President Trump pushing for more OPEC supply because “price of oil getting too high.” OPEC, however, may not be so willing to replace supply from Iran and Venezuela which the US are keeping off the market.



Even if slight production increases are possible, analysts are predicting further price increases, with general market tightening and instability in places like Libya knocking even more supply out of the market.



Author: Jason Ditz Jason Ditz is news editor of Antiwar.com. View all posts by Jason Ditz