Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, speaking at the BJP National Convention in the National Capital, said, “We have not had one major terrorist attack in this country after 2014. This government under the leadership of PM Modi has ensured one thing that there shall not be an opportunity for terrorists to disturb the peace.” According to the government's own data, presented to Parliament by the Ministry of Home Affairs, there was a "major terrorist attack in the hinterland" in both 2015 and 2016. There's no policy statement or government release where the difference between a major or minor attack has been defined clearly since it’s a matter of perception. According to South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP), there were 388 "major" incidents in India from 2014 to 2018 using their definition.

The incidents in Jammu and Kashmir, which were showing a steady decline from 2009 to 2014, have been on the rise under the current government and in 2018, Kashmir saw the highest fatalities in terror-related violence in a decade with 451 deaths, according to SATP. The data recently released by the Ministry of Home Affairs shows that between 2014 and 2018, there has been a 93 per rise in the number of security personnel killed in terrorist incidents in Jammu and Kashmir. Furthermore, these five years also saw a 176 per cent rise in the number of terrorist incidents in the state.

Based on the information available in the public domain, it seems that Intelligence reports have not been given required attention by the NDA governments. While the accuracy of the claims regarding Intel failure in Pulwama needs to be objectively reviewed in the weeks ahead, what stands out now is the uncanny similarity with what happened during Kargil in May 1999. In both, early inputs received from local sources were either ignored or not given enough importance that was warranted to guarantee national security. In April 2017, a parliamentary panel had rapped Intelligence agencies for the terror attacks in Pathankot, Uri and a few other places, saying these strikes “exposed the deficiencies” of the agencies but there was no analysis of their “failure”.

One area where the Indian security establishment could have done better is in the Intelligence (or Intel) domain. Almost three years have passed since the January 2, 2016 terror attack at the Indian Air Force station in Pathankot but the probe has not been completed by the National Investigation Agency. No analysis seems to have been done of the “failure” of the Intelligence agencies to provide credible and actionable inputs regarding the attacks at Pathankot, Uri, Pampore, Baramulla and Nagrota. Apart from Kashmir region, the security forces also failed paying attention to Intel when it came to Left wing extremism. Some of the prominent instances are listed here.

2014

Chintagufa Attack, Chhattisgarh

Casualties: 14 CRPF personnel

14 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel were killed and about a dozen wounded in an encounter with the Maoists near Chintagufa in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district on December 1, 2014. It was the biggest loss of lives in anti-Maoist operations after the NDA government assumed charge in May. Security forces were deep inside the forests, about 450 km from state capital Raipur, when Maoist gunmen attacked them, using villagers as shields. The CRPF had launched a special operation on November 16 to corner the First Battalion of the CPI(Maoist)’s Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee which had a stronghold in the area. However, the attack was an epitome of Intelligence failure since Intel agencies failed to crack a Maoist code. Maoists had warned of an attack using a code word in a press release issued on November 24 to announce the observance of the People's Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) week between December 2 and 9. Released by the Dandkarnaya Special Zonal Committee of the Communist Party of India (Maoist), the press statement stated, "During the PLGA week, we will carry out a ca dk vk ks u ugla.” The garbled message in the press release about PLGA week mentioned a code about an apparent attack.

2014

Gadchiroli Attack, Maharashtra

Casualties: 7 policemen

Just two days after the Gadchiroli police arrested Delhi University Professor GN Saibaba for alleged Maoist links, Naxalites triggered a powerful landmine blast on May 11, 2014, in an unlikely area of the district, killing seven policemen on the spot and leaving two grievously injured. The blast happened around 9:40 am when a police vehicle passing by Murmuri village in Chamorshi tehsil of the district was hit by a powerful IED explosion.

2015

Kathua Attack, J&K

Casualties: 1 policemen and 2 CRPF personnel, 1 civilian

A 'Fidayeen' squad of militants in Army fatigues stormed a police station in Jammu and Kashmir's Kathua district, killing four persons, including three security personnel, and leaving 10 others injured in the wee hours on March 20, 2015. This was the first major militant attack in the state since the formation of the PDP-BJP coalition government on March 1. Police officers said a group of two to three militants of a 'fidayeen' squad stormed Rajbagh Police Station in the wee hours and opened indiscriminate fire. Six persons were killed in the attack including two militants, two CRPF personnel, a policeman and a civilian while 10 others had been injured. On March 21, 2014, six people including two militants were killed in a similar attack on the Rajbagh police station in Kathua district. Terrorists had launched an attack on an Army camp in Samba district of Jammu and Kashmir. The militants opened fired and lobbed grenades at an Army camp in Meshwara area of Samba around 5:50 am.

2014

Chandel Attack, Manipur

Casualties: 20 Army personnel

On June 4, 2014, around 20 soldiers were killed and another 11 injured when they were ambushed during early hours in the Moltuk valley of Chandel district in Manipur. Troops from 6 Dogra Regiment were returning to their HQ in Nagaland’s Dimapur and were travelling in a convoy of four trucks that were carrying 46 soldiers in all. The attack, which started with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast, took place when the convoy reached a hilly area about 125 km from Imphal and around 15 km from the Myanmar border. A day after the soldiers of Dogra infantry regiment were killed, it was revealed that it was a serious Intelligence failure that led to the tragedy. The Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) had given inputs of a possible attack but it was apparently not taken seriously. Assam Rifles reportedly underestimated the threat from Naga terror outfit Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) after the group abrogated the ceasefire earlier in 2015.

2015

Gurdaspur Attack, Punjab

Casualties: 5 police personnel (1 SP, 2 policemen, 2 home guards)

In a major terror attack, three Fidayeens, believed to have come from Pakistan, on July 27, 2015, attacked passengers in a moving bus and stormed a police station, killing seven persons, including an SP, while all the terrorists were gunned down after a day-long operation. Weapons and a Global Positioning System (GPS) equipment were recovered from the building where the terrorists were holed up. Terrorists next entered Dinanagar police station and opened heavy fire, in which Superintendent of Police, two home guards and two policemen were killed. This was the first major terror attack in Punjab following the assassination of former Chief Minister Beant Singh on August 31, 1995. The Intelligence agencies had warned of two infiltration bids by terrorists based in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK). Naming terror outfits Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), the inputs shared with security agencies had indicated that the terrorists were planning to slip across the border under cover fire from Pakistan Rangers.