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Judging from the extensive coverage of the disappearance of Kim Jong-un, you might think that the world is very concerned about the well-being of the North Korean dictator. But it’s not that we all miss seeing his joyous face and rotund figure majestically sitting on a horse, enjoying a roller-coaster ride, inspecting a submarine or a lubricant factory.

When the leader of a highly secretive and unpredictable country and head of one of the world’s most oppressive regimes goes missing for more than a month, anxious speculation is perhaps warranted.

Kim Jong-un has not been seen in public since Sept. 3. He missed several important events, including the anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party, one of the country’s most important holidays. It marks the longest period a North Korean leader has remained unseen since the death of Mr. Kim’s father in 2011. His disappearance has incited speculation of a coup in the country, or a serious illness.

When Mr. Kim was last seen in public, he was visibly limping. Official reports from North Korea have suggested that he was “suffering physical discomfort,” but rumors of turnover in the highest echelons of the regime continue to percolate.

Jiro Ishimaru of Asia Press, a Japanese organization with “high-level contacts in North Korea,” told The Guardian that the most likely reason for his absence is a medical issue. “The most sensible theory is that he has something wrong with his leg and is staying out of the public eye while he receives treatment.”

John Delury, an analyst at the Yonsei University in Seoul, agreed, telling The Guardian that North Korea can’t show off a leader who is physically incapacitated. “It’s a physical issue with aesthetic consequences,” Mr. Delury said. “The regime is incredibly image conscious. It choreographs everything, especially when it comes to the leader. Kim is a young guy, and you don’t want to see a young guy in that condition.”

On Friday, South Korean officials from the unification ministry said that according to their information, nothing has changed. “It seems that Kim Jong-un’s rule is in normal operation,” a spokesman for the ministry said.

But writing for Vice News, John Everard, a former British ambassador to North Korea, says that it is strange that Mr. Kim has been out of the public eye for so long and that state media reports he is physically incapacitated. They usually would not discuss the supreme leader’s health: “It seems more likely that his absence is due to politics, not health.”

To confuse the picture even more, on Oct. 3, in an unprecedented visit, top North Korean officials took part in festivities surrounding the 2014 Asian Games in South Korea, hinting at a possible détente in the tense relations between the two states.

Mr. Everard says that the dignitaries’ behavior during their visit was unusual. “They smiled and chatted, which North Korean emissaries are not supposed to do. The delegation leader appeared in a military uniform, which North Korea normally regards as a concession for special occasions.” Moreover, they did not “not gush the kind of praise of Kim Jong-un that would normally be expected.”

At The Daily Beast, Gordon S. Chang concurs, pointing to the newfound prominence of one of the officials — Gen. Hwang Pyong-so. “Here is a senior figure grabbing the international spotlight,” Mr. Chang writes.

Mr. Everard suggests that the Organization and Guidance Department (O.G.D.), a powerful group within the North Korean regime, has removed Mr. Kim, who served only as their figurehead, from power.

In an earlier article from Vice, Jang Jin-sung, a defector from North Korea and a former member of the country’s counterintelligence, said that members of the powerful O.G.D. have stopped taking orders from Kim Jong-un and have taken control of the country. He claims that two factions are now in conflict: one that would rather keep the status quo, holding absolute control over the economy, and the other that would like to allow foreign trade and a more open market. “It’s not actually consciously civil war, but there are these two incompatible forces at play,” Mr. Jang told Vice News.

“Kim Jong-un is not the dictator we all think he is,” Remco Breuker, professor of Korean studies at Leiden University, told The Independent. He disagrees with Mr. Jang, however. “I don’t think he is entirely powerless, and I don’t think he’s a puppet. I do think he might be the first among equals and not much more.” Mr. Breuker said that Mr. Kim does not have many people he can trust. “He doesn’t have a network to run the country,” he said.

Paul French at Reuters advises caution. “In the world of North Korea analysis there’s no light comedy or gentle drama — it’s always straight to Macbeth!” Mr. French writes. “But hold on a minute before we put the U.S. Seventh Fleet on red alert or open up the bomb shelters in Seoul. We’ve been here before …” Mr. French says, enumerating past instances of North Korean Leaders going off the grid.

Mr. French sees the top officials’ visit to South Korea not as a power grab, but as a political maneuver. “His domestic position will remain dominant, a figurehead to the North Korean people, but internationally, and particularly in relations with South Korea he may be purposely taking a back seat to allow a breakthrough,” he writes.

Moreover, David C. Kang, the director of the Korean Studies Institute at the University of Southern California, notes in an op-ed for CNN that there are no outward signs of a coup. “There have been no unusual military or troop movements inside North Korea, particularly tied to the Pyongyang defense command or other key military units,” Mr. Kang writes.

In the end, news from the Hermit Kingdom remains as elusive as ever.