Narendra Modi the politician has taken over from Narendra Modi the prime minister in turning India's over six-decade-old policy on Tibet and Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama on its head.

But why this sudden change in India's policy towards the Dalai Lama?

It's an open secret that in the Modi dispensation only one man's writ prevails on all issues - PM Modi. At this juncture, nothing matters more to Modi and the BJP than winning the next general elections, due by April-May 2019 but may well be advanced by a few months. China can rock Modi's boat in a big way. That's why, from Modi's perspective, it is absolutely essential that China cooperates with the Modi government and not create problems.

To seek China's cooperation, the Modi government has extended an olive branch to China on its soft underbelly, the Dalai Lama, who is dubbed by China as a “splittist” and a “dangerous separatist”.

Image credit: dalailama80.org

This is the only explanation for cabinet secretary PK Sinha sending a note (dated February 22 but sent on February 26 presumably after PMO's vetting) to all central ministries and departments as well as all state governments which says "senior leaders" and "government functionaries" of the Centre and states should stay away from commemorative events planned for March-end and early April by the "Tibetan leadership in India" to mark the start of 60 years in exile of the Dalai Lama.

The main event of Dalai Lama targeted by the Modi government is "Thank You India" being organised at Thyagaraj Sports Complex in New Delhi on April 1. Dalai Lama’s government-in-exile also intends to invite a number of Indian dignitaries for this event which is likely to be followed up by additional events in Delhi as well as other Indian states.

Significantly, the cabinet secretary's circular was sent on the advice of the new foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale who until a few months back was Indian ambassador in China and had played a key role in resolution of the 73-day-long Doklam standoff.

The cabinet secretary quoted Gokhale’s note to underline “the sensitive nature of the subject”. In his note to the cabinet secretary the foreign secretary stated: “The proposed period will be a very sensitive time in the context of India’s relations with China. Participation by senior leaders or government functionaries, either from the central government or state governments, is not desirable, and should be discouraged.”

Modi knows that China is seething over India's unprecedented defiance and a strong stand over the Doklam issue last summer. Although the crisis was resolved after 73 days, Modi has been tipped off by his intelligence apparatus that China may trigger a bigger crisis in Doklam and elsewhere in this summer. Such a scenario would be politically disastrous for Modi, who during the 2014 election campaign had hauled the then Congress government over coals for its submissive approach to China.

In the event of China triggering yet another major flashpoint, the Modi government would be pushed on the back foot and the Congress-led Opposition will get a stick to beat the BJP with in the run-up to the next general elections.

Only yesterday (March 5) defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman told parliament that China has built helipads and trenches in Doklam.

It's because of this that Modi has turned India's six-decade-old foreign policy on its head. As per Modi's political calculations a possible China-triggered flashpoint would be more harmful for his political future than turning his back on the Dalai Lama.

At best, the Opposition would cry foul and issue angry statements against the move, but China would be mollified.

Had there been a strong and United Opposition, it would have made life miserable for the government and the prime minister, accusing the government of being soft and pliable and reversing decades-old Indian policy for his short-term political gains. The Opposition has solid reasons to blast the Modi government as it has unilaterally changed a vital component of Indian foreign policy without taking the Opposition into confidence.

And that too at a time when the Modi government should have done exactly the opposite after China recently violated two bilateral MoUs and refused to share upstream data on Brahmaputra and Sutlej and cut off Indian pilgrims' access to two sacred sites in Tibet.

The Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement on March 2, a national holiday on account of the Holi festival, and said thus: “The government’s position on His Holiness the Dalai Lama is clear and consistent. He is a revered religious leader and is deeply respected by people of India. There is no change in that position. He is accorded all freedom to carry out his religious activities in India.” However, the MEA kept mum on the cabinet secretary's note.

The Modi government is exercising more caution than ever before in dealing with China not just because PM Modi will be travelling to China in June this year for attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. But it's not for this multilateral event that he has changed his government’s policy on the Dalai Lama in one stroke.

He is eyeing much bigger prize in lieu: an India visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is now practically the Chinese president for life after the Chinese Communist Party made changes in its rules. A visit to India by Xi later this year would effectively mean that the Xi-led China won't be rocking India's boat and would presumably refrain from staging the much feared Doklam II.

The master political move by Modi makes it clear that it’s more by Modi the politician, rather than Modi, the prime minister.

Also read: Doklam crisis is not over: India and China are headed for more conflicts