Jason Williams

jwilliams@enquirer.com

(Scroll down to view maps comparing the 2017 and 2013 Cincinnati mayoral primary elections)

Where did Cincinnati City Councilwoman Yvette Simpson's votes come from to help her pull off the upset in Tuesday's mayoral primary?

And which neighborhoods didn't show up to support Mayor John Cranley after he easily won the primary four years ago?

The Enquirer analyzed the voting data from across the city to see what the maps could further tell us about the primary and what the trends might be heading into the November election between Cranley and Simpson. Here's what we found:

• Reminder: Overall turnout was 11 percent. Simpson took 45.1 percent of the vote with Cranley taking 34.5 percent and Rob Richardson Jr. 20.4 percent.

• A deeper-dive into the map indicates a tight race in November. The 10 biggest wards hold 60 percent of the vote. Primary turnout was better than the city median of 9.9 percent in eight of the 10 wards. Both Cranley and Simpson each won a majority of the votes in three wards. The mayor nearly won a majority in a fourth ward. Meanwhile, Simpson took a plurality in the other three. The biggest wards are: Mount Washington (Ward 1), Madisonville (2), Hyde Park/Mount Lookout (5), Bond Hill/Roselawn (7), Pleasant Ridge/Kennedy Heights (14), Clifton (15), College Hill (23), Winton Hills/Carthage (24), West Price Hill (25) and Westwood (26).

• Simpson's campaign aggressively targeted voters in College Hill and Pleasant Ridge/Kennedy Heights, and she won both wards. Voters in these wards have been highly engaged in elections the past two years, and the neighborhoods are some of the most racially and economically diverse in the city. Look for College Hill (Ward 23) and Pleasant Ridge/Kennedy Heights (Ward 14) to be battlegrounds in November – where Simpson and Cranley will fight to grab the 20-plus percent of votes Richardson won in each area.

• Cranley won or took a plurality in Westwood, West Price Hill, East Price Hill and Hyde Park, but he didn't dominate in those areas like he did in the 2013 primary. The West Side and Hyde Park are where a majority of the city's conservatives live, seemingly validating the belief that Republicans didn't turn out for Cranley on Tuesday. In Hyde Park/Mount Lookout, Cranley took 53 percent of the vote after garnering 61.4 percent there in 2013. But Cranley is likely to grab a big chunk of the 11.9 percent of the vote Richardson took.

• Cranley finished third in two wards that cover key predominantly African-American neighborhoods. That's a steep fall from the primary four years ago, where he won in wards that include Bond Hill, Roselawn, Paddock Hills and parts of Avondale. Simpson took a majority in both wards, and she stands a good chance of widening the margins in November by grabbing most of Richardson's votes. Both Simpson and Richardson are African-American, and Cranley did not face a serious black candidate in 2013. That could explain the difference in the results. But is there more to it? Are African-American voters sending a message to Cranley that they're not happy about some of the decisions he and his administration have made, including the ouster of police Chief Jeffrey Blackwell in 2015?