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So both sides are readying for a strike, with OPSEU telling members to fill out forms that will enable them to receive strike pay and the government readying managers from across the public sector to go in to run its jails.

Here’s an updated version of what you need to know about how a strike will affect jails, inmates, public safety and government coffers — and how the walkout could still be prevented. (An earlier version of this post first appeared in late December).

How likely is a strike?

It’s always hard to gauge the likelihood of a strike — remember the threat in May 2013 that OPSEU workers in government-run liquor stores would strike ahead of the long weekend? Many in Ontario had already stocked up at the LCBO when the late-night news broke a deal had been struck, quite literally at the eleventh hour. But as O’Neill noted, this isn’t simple positioning.

Sixty-seven per cent of OPSEU corrections members voted to reject a tentative contract in November, which is relatively uncommon in the public service — especially when the general membership accepted the same deal. Treasury Board President Deb Matthews and Minister of Correctional Services Yasir Naqvi said in a joint statement Tuesday they hope bargaining soon resumes and a deal can be reached. But a government spokesperson said Wednesday that talks have yet to resume:

With bargaining set to resume Friday, there remains a lot of daylight between what the union wants and what the government is willing to give. At the moment, a strike appears more likely than a deal.