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Photo by Darryl Dyck/CP

Current tight polling, the electoral map and the possible voting splits that exist across the country highlight the real possibility of a Liberal minority government for Canada. To retain government and the confidence of Parliament the Liberals would have to be in league with either the NDP or the Green Party or a toxic cocktail of both (each trying to out-Leap Manifesto the other). In that context, hypothetical queries as to a potential negotiated coalition agreement are not only fair but important.

There are two reasons why. First, the Canadian energy sector is still reeling while its American counterpart has enjoyed unprecedented growth in recent years. The very least that the Canadian industry needs is egress, even if it’s just an expansion of an existing pipeline.

Second, Western alienation has never been as strong as it is today. This question has been tested in a series of credible polls this year, the results of which jibe with what many of us are observing and hearing anecdotally. And that is saying something given how strong the disenfranchisement was in response to the elder Trudeau’s National Energy Program, his finger flipping and his obvious disdain for the West. All of that was so special as to help propel a Western separatist party to elect Gordon Kesler in an Alberta federal byelection in 1982.

Western alienation has never been as strong as it is today

Previously in this space I’ve pointed to polling from earlier this year from very reputable pollsters such as Angus Reid and Environics that underscored just how uneasy many in Saskatchewan and Alberta are with the state of the federation. There have been subsequent surveys including one by Abacus that show close to a third of Albertans are interested in outright independence.