After splitting time between the Barracuda and the Sharks in 2016-17, Kevin Labanc was in the NHL full-time for the first time last season, minus a brief AHL stint early in the season, and the results were mostly positive.

In 2016-17, Labanc scored 20 points in 55 games, a 30-point pace over an 82-game season. Last season, he upped that to 40 points in 77 games. His best stretch of the season came was from December through January, when he scored 20 points over 27 games. He cooled off after that with only 12 over the last 32, but that’s at least proof that he can score at a consistent pace over a long stretch of games. Plus, at his age, peaks and valleys in scoring are to be expected, especially out of a sixth-round pick.

It’s important to note that Labanc is ahead of a lot of players drafted his year at this point. 170 players were picked ahead of Labanc in 2014 before the Sharks picked him. Yet, last season, out of 72 players who were 22-years-old, Labanc finished 10th in points, and the nine players who were ahead of him were all drafted well ahead of him. He had more points than 2014 first-round picks Andre Burakovsky, Nikolay Goldobin, and Josh Ho-Sang.

So where does Labanc go from here?

Like many young players, figuring out how to score at 5v5 is a good starting point. Only 23 of his 40 points last season came at even-strength. Part of that is the result of his deployment when he played with Chris Tierney and Timo Meier, his most common teammates for the last third of the season. That line had a ZSR of 41.79, suggesting that his line was more likely to start in the neutral or defensive zones and was less sheltered than other lines.

The other part is that, much like teammates Tomas Hertl and Meier, he has horrible puck luck in regards to scoring. While the difference between ixG and actual goals for Labanc isn’t as stark as it is for Hertl, Labanc still has his own problems with puck luck and shooting percentages. Labanc shot just 7.1% overall, down from his 11.5% the year before, and 5.41% at 5v5. For reference, Marc-Edouard Vlasic shot better at 5v5 (6.67%) than Labanc last season. While his shot selection could use an improvement, it’s not exactly terrible, either.

According to Corsica Hockey’s ixGF model, Labanc was predicted to score 9.04 goals at 5v5, and he ended up with six. Keep in mind that Corsica Hockey’s ixGF model excludes shooting talent from the equation. Between Labanc underperforming his ixGF numbers and him gaining more NHL experience, we should see an increase in goals scored at 5v5 from Labanc next season.

Possession-wise, Labanc was a decent player. In almost 900 minutes of play at 5v5, Labanc had a CF% of 53.85%, Rel CF% 4.32, 52.81% xGF%, and a 1.18 Rel xGF%. Shifting between the top three lines, Labanc spent the bulk of his ice time last season on the second line alongside Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl. And, as we have established earlier in this recap series, the Couture line isn’t always the easiest line to play on.

But the three spent 236.83 minutes together last season and combined to create 56.85% CF%, 7.29 RelCF%, 53.16 xGF%, and a 2.25 Rel xGF%. These are solid numbers for a player playing top-six minutes full-time for the first time in his career. And it’s also clear that coach Peter DeBoer liked this line because these three had the most ice time of any forward combination last season. Still, they didn’t always get the bounces to go their way, as evidenced by their 47.62% GF%.

Labanc had two other line combinations that he played with for over 100 minutes at 5v5: Labanc/Thornton/Pavelski and Labanc/Tierney/Meier. The former is a bit of a mixed bag because while they had a high CF% and a positive Rel CF%, they also had a high proportion of offensive zone starts (65.38 ZSR) and a negative Rel xGF% (-1.94). The Tierney line is kind of the opposite. They had more defensive and neutral zone starts (41.79 ZSR), lower possession numbers (50.55% CF% and .13% Rel CF%), but a high xGF% (55.55% xGF% and 3.17% Rel CF%).

The positive to take away from this is that Labanc has a positive impact no matter where he is played within the lineup, which gives DeBoer more flexibility in how he wants to deploy an already fairly flexible lineup. Being a positive possession player is a good sign for a young player, and it shows that he “belongs” at the NHL level.

2018-19 Outlook

While I don’t think that Labanc has the same ceiling as Hertl or Meier, he can still be a decent middle-six player for the Sharks. He’s the kind of player that DeBoer can easily move up and down the lineup as guys get injured, go through slumps, etc.

A lot of Labanc’s potential success rides on his ability to make strides at 5v5. He’s done a decent job of controlling play and generating possession so far, but he needs to demonstrate that he can consistently produce on the scoresheet at 5v5. He’s not going to carry a line, but he’s a good complimentary piece to a line at this point.

It’s likely that Labanc moves back down to the second unit of the power play, especially with the return of Joe Thornton and Evander Kane. Still, he was a decent playmaker on the power play last season, but he did show some growing pains and was at times too hesitant with the puck. But with those growing pains should come improvement, and he could be a solid piece on that second unit.

At this point, at 5v5, however, Labanc is likely the team’s fifth or sixth option at winger, with Pavelski, Kane, Hertl, Meier, and maybe Joonas Donskoi all ahead of him. That’s not necessarily a knock on Labanc, but it’s worth mentioning because that likely means that he’ll end up back on Tierney’s line, where he spent the last third of the season with Meier.

A prediction more along the optimistic side would be that Labanc makes improvements to his game at 5v5, becomes a pivotal part of the second power play unit, and hits 50 points. That’s probably too optimistic, but a return to 40 or an increase to 45 is still a possibility. 15 goals and 30 assists for 45 points seems to be a reasonable prediction for Labanc next season.

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