1) Fortress Windsor Park to inspire Northern Ireland again

Northern Ireland and Switzerland last met in a competitive fixture in Belfast in 1964, when a home team featuring Pat Jennings, Terry Neill and George Best triumphed 1-0 in a World Cup qualifier at Windsor Park. The current Northern Ireland side boast no players of such high quality, but the indomitable team spirit forged by the manager, Michael O’Neill, in recent years makes them an extremely tough nut to crack at the best of times, particularly when playing in Belfast. Fortress Windsor Park is once again the venue as Northern Ireland resume hostilities with the Swiss in the first leg of a far more significant qualifier on Thursday. For all their delight at being pitted against Switzerland, Northern Ireland fans will be aware their Swiss counterparts will also have been yodelling with delight at the draw. The Swiss boasted a 100% record in their qualifying group until being consigned to the play-offs on goal difference by defeat at the hands of Portugal in their final game. Neutralising the Swiss at home is vital for the Irish and O’Neill has said as much. “The most important thing is we don’t concede an away goal,” he said. One of the greatest players ever to play the game, Best never got to showcase his skills on football’s most exalted stage. A comparatively workmanlike group of players will never have a better chance to rub shoulders with international football’s global elite. BG

World Cup 2018: fans from around Europe preview the play-offs Read more

2) Yellow card peril adds risk to Republic’s challenge in Denmark

People do the strangest things when on the verge of glory. Claudio Caniggia missed the 1990 World Cup final for an entirely senseless handball on the halfway line during the semi-final win over Italy. Louis Saha was ruled out of the 2006 final because he managed to pick up a yellow card for a pointless foul during his five minutes on the pitch in the semi. And David Meyler will miss Saturday’s first leg of the Republic of Ireland’s play-off against Denmark after getting booked for crunching into Wales’s goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey near the halfway line in the sixth minute of stoppage time in Cardiff last month. That could prove a costly rush of blood because, that lapse aside, Meyler’s emergence as a fine midfield anchor has been one of the positive developments of this Irish campaign. He will almost certainly slot straight back into the side for the second leg in Dublin, but how many of his team-mates will be available for that match? Ireland go into Saturday’s game with 10 players a booking away from suspension. The men who will need to be extra careful in Copenhagen, and hope the Serbian referee has a good game, include the goalkeeper Darren Randolph, three of Ireland’s probable back four and perhaps their most dangerous player, James McClean. PD

Facebook Twitter Pinterest James McClean celebrates his winner for Ireland in Cardiff but the influential midfielder will need to keep his head in Denmark. Photograph: John Sibley/Action Images via Reuters

3) Messi’s arrival likely to upstage host nation

Lionel Messi and Argentina touched down in Moscow on Monday, doubtless still relieved that they will be able to do the same in seven months’ time. Argentina squeaked home last month thanks to that timely hat-trick from their talisman against Ecuador; they now need to find some consistency and on paper Saturday’s friendly with a creaking Russia side is an opportunity to get into the groove. Stanislav Cherchesov’s team remain unloved and may find that most gazes inside the Luzhniki Stadium are centred on their celebrity visitor. Back in June, Cristiano Ronaldo’s presence drew far louder screams – and, for that matter, bums on seats – than anything the hosts could produce. It would be a major shot in the arm if Russia could cause some excitement this time around but it remains difficult to see where any spark will come from. They will then play Spain in St Petersburg three days later and, for the neutral, it might be worth hoping they garner at least one result that whips up a degree of local anticipation for next summer. The prospect of Messi and company putting on a show is, of course, hardly a bad alternative; Jorge Sampaoli will hope to use this fixture, and a subsequent meeting with Nigeria, to show he can create the balance that makes them the feared World Cup contenders they ought to be. NA

4) Italian revenge: a dish best served cold

Everyone wanted to avoid Italy in the European play-offs and Sweden have more reason than most to fear them. At Euro 2004, the Italians accused Sweden and Denmark of conspiring to engineer an unlikely 2-2 draw to eliminate them from the group stages. Subsequent reports of conversations between players from both Scandinavian countries before and during the game served only to further enrage the nation that, ironically enough, coined the term for a mutually beneficial arrangement that shafts a defenceless third party. “The ‘biscotto’ of 2004? Life goes on, although the exit from that Euros with five points was a huge disappointment,” said Gigi Buffon in a recent interview. His comments were considerably more measured than those he made in the immediate aftermath of Sweden and Denmark’s famous draw: “I’m very bitter, I didn’t believe this would happen with peoples who are proud of their spirit of fair play,” he said. Currently on course to qualify for his fifth consecutive World Cup finals, the Italy goalkeeper will be forgiven a smug smile should his team overcome Sweden, as they surely will. They are Italy, after all. And in situations like this the Italians invariably find a way. BG

5) Morocco and Hervé Renard to outfox Elephants?

A little over two years ago Hervé Renard led Ivory Coast to victory in the Africa Cup of Nations, becoming the first manager to win the tournament with two countries. Then he left and had a short and joyless stint in club management in his native France before returning to what he apparently does best, uplifting a national team. He qualified Morocco for this year’s Africa Cup of Nations, where they eliminated Ivory Coast. On Saturday Renard will take his team back to his old stomping ground with a view to inflicting more pain on the Elephants. A draw in Abidjan will be enough for Morocco to achieve that, whereas Ivory Coast need victory, which means, at least, that they will have to become the first team to score against Morocco during this group stage. The goalkeeper Munir El Mohamedi may not have played a league game this season for his club, Numancia, but he has been a mainstay for Renard’s solid side and is likely to be entrusted with the task of keeping out the Elephants, who have stuttered under Marc Wilmots and are hoping that Wilfried Zaha’s return to action for Crystal Palace is the prelude to him making his mark at international level. Moroccan football is on a high following Wydad Casablanca’s recent triumph in the Africa Champions League (Wydad’s star forward, Achraf Bencharki, has been called up for the game in Abidjan) and reaching the World Cup would end the country’s 20-year wait for a return to the global stage, which Renard has yet to grace. PD



Facebook Twitter Pinterest Moroccan football is on a high as their national side seek their first qualification since 1998. Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

6) With two shots at South Africa, Senegal have one foot in Russia

Senegal have made had work of reaching the World Cup but surely they cannot lose their way now? Two points clear at the top of their group with a match in hand, they will book their ticket if they win in South Africa on Saturday or if Burkina Faso failed to beat Cape Verde. If Aliou Cissé’s side do not get the results they need this weekend, then they can finish the job at home when South Africa visit Dakar next week. With Sadio Mané and Diafra Sakho fit again and Keita Baldé Diao in sparkling form, the likelihood is that Senegal will do the necessary this weekend. Then Cissé’s phone will light up with message of congratulations … and perhaps pleas, from Liverpool fans in particular, not to risk Mané in the redundant match. PD

7) A needlessly hostile reception for Australia in San Pedro Sula

The first leg of Australia’s play-off against Honduras in San Pedro Sula will be played in a heightened atmosphere of acrimony after locals took grave exception to jokes made by the Aussie TV presenters Waleed Ali and Peter Helliar about the city’s one-time status as the murder capital of the world. Honduran media picked up on the comments and have taken serious offence. Since touching down in San Pedro Sula, the Australian contingent have been forced to embark on a spot of grovelling, with Cahill sent before the press to say that “as players, we respect the country and people, which is most important”. To further infuriate the local media, this respect did not extend to stopping to chat to Honduran reporters who had waited for their arrival at the local airport, a snub that has also been poorly received. Cahill’s opposite number, the Honduras striker Anthony Lozano, has declared that he and his team-mates hope to “kill off” the Socceroos when the sides meet in the Estadio Olímpico. With local pride wounded and passions inflamed, Australia are guaranteed an extremely hostile reception. Some thoughtless remarks on a late night TV show have made a very tough task even more difficult. So much for harmless banter. BG

World Cup play-offs: where the four European ties will be won and lost Read more

8) A change in tactics by New Zealand against Peru?

Few outside (and possibly inside) New Zealand rate the Oceania side’s chances of overturning Peru in a play-off pitting the 10th ranked national team in the world against the 122nd. Having finished fifth in South American qualifying to secure their place in this eliminator, Peru are white-hot favourites to qualify for the World Cup finals for the first time since 1982. With the first leg taking place in Wellington on Saturday, New Zealand simply have to make home advantage count to give themselves any hope before heading to Lima. Even a scoreless draw or 1-0 defeat would leave them a sporting chance before a second leg against a Peru side that could conceivably buckle under the potentially crippling weight of national expectation back home. New Zealand lost all three of their group matches at June’s Confederations Cup, where their manager, Anthony Hudson, employed a high press that will be grist to the counterattacking mill of a lightning fast Peruvian side. The use of similar tactics at the Westpac Stadium would be ill-advised and could end this tie as a contest in 90 minutes or less. BG

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Peru fans in celebratory mood before their qualifier against Colombia. Their team are strong favourites to beat New Zealand. Photograph: Guadalupe Pardo/Reuters

9) Modric and company must seize their final opportunity

A World Cup without Messi would have been sadly bereft – but what about one lacking Luka Modric? The Real Madrid playmaker is now 32 and, when you consider the gifts of the Croatia team-mates he works with, it beggars belief that his place at Russia 2018 hangs in the balance. Croatia’s supporters can be rightly furious at the mismanagement that has seen it come to this, although the appointment of Zlatko Dalic in time for the crucial 2-0 win in Ukraine last month appears to have come in the nick of time. Now Dalic – who replaced the disliked Ante Cacic and will work without a contract until, and unless, qualification is secured – must hope Croatia discover their old verve against Greece. Ivan Perisic, Ivan Rakitic and Mario Mandzukic are among those who, like Modric, may not be around when Qatar 2022 arrives and few would dispute that next summer would be poorer without a crop that, especially in midfield, does not have too many equals. Talent alone is only part of the story, as Argentina almost found out to their cost; a gifted Croatia generation have made similarly heavy weather of things but wish for the same kind of ending. For many of Dalic’s cornerstones, this will be a final shot at the biggest prize of all. NA

10) Boring, boring Greece

From being crowned champions of Europe in 2004 to consecutive defeats at the hands of the Faroe Islands in their feeble attempts to qualify for Euro 2016, Greece showcased their very best and very worst as a football nation in little more than a decade. Finishing in last place in their group in Euro 2016 qualifying was a literal and metaphorical rock bottom for the Greeks, whose mere presence in a European play-off against Croatia can be considered a triumph in the wake of recent humiliations, even if they did depend on a spectacular Bosnia collapse to get there. Whether or not they can see off the Croats remains to be seen, but their manager, Michael Skibbe, has made them extremely difficult to beat. Defensively solid and offering little or nothing going forward, they are a throwback to the Greece team that ground out three consecutive 1-0 wins in the knockout stages at Euro 2004 under another German, Otto Rehhagel: hideously boring and extremely gruelling to watch. After enduring the traumas of recent years, it should go without saying that their fans could scarcely be more pleased. BG