For Donald Trump, the long-awaited launch of his paid television advertising effort — like the recent shakeup of his campaign team — might be too little, too late.

Trump has been savaged for months by Hillary Clinton and her allies on the air across the swing-state landscape — with little answer. Since the middle of June, 10 ads attacking Trump have aired on television for every spot hitting Clinton. Clinton and her allies have spent upwards of $100 million on television ads before the Trump campaign’s first spot, unveiled Friday, ever aired.


With Trump already flailing due to a series of self-inflicted controversies in recent weeks, Clinton’s ads have provided another body blow. Sensing the success, Clinton’s campaign is shifting its ad buys to maximize the pain. Out of the seven initial states Clinton targeted for ads, campaign officials have already suspended advertising in two of them after building large leads in the polls. They did add a new state last month, Pennsylvania — but, already, Clinton and her allies are scaling back there, too, after Clinton surged ahead this summer.

Even with the new Trump investments — and with Clinton’s shuffling of her ad buys — he is still going to be outspent on the airwaves by Clinton and a network of Democratic groups by a margin of more than 2 to 1 over the next two weeks, according to a POLITICO review of Trump’s reservations.

“The Trump spending is much needed, but he is facing a serious headwind on the airwaves with the combined forces of Hillary and her super PACs,” said GOP ad buyer Kyle Roberts.

Clinton and pro-Clinton outside groups are poised to spend more than $17 million this week and next week, according to data provided by The Tracking Firm, a company that monitors ad purchases. That includes $10.75 million in the four states in which the GOP nominee has engaged: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. (That’s more than the roughly $8.5 million Trump and his allies are spending.)

Those four states are probably the most crucial to Trump’s campaign. If Trump won those four states — and held all the other states that Mitt Romney won in 2012 — it would equal 273 electoral votes (270 votes are needed to win).

But Trump is demonstrably behind in these states. According to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average, Trump trails by 5.2 points in Florida, 4 points in North Carolina, 2 points in Ohio and 9 points in Pennsylvania.

It’s not just notable where Trump is advertising — it’s also where he isn’t, at least on broadcast TV. In Ohio, Trump is taking advantage of the energy of last month’s GOP convention by skipping the Cleveland media market, instead putting most of his money into Cincinnati and Columbus.

And Trump is also shunning other media markets where the message of his first ad might play best: places with large numbers of downscale white voters who have historically voted Democratic but are drawn to Republicans more recently (and more acutely toward Trump).

Trump’s first ad is a spot that says that under Clinton, “the system stays rigged among Americans” because of undocumented immigrants and refugees from war-town Syria “flood[ing] in.”

Trump’s campaign is playing that ad in Ohio — but not in Northeast Ohio, either Cleveland or Youngstown. In Pennsylvania, Trump is up in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh — but not in Wilkes Barre-Scranton or Johnstown. Those markets contain large numbers of downscale white voters who have traditionally supported Democrats but have trended toward Trump this year.

GOP ad-maker Russ Schriefer, who was a senior adviser on Romney's campaign four years ago, said Trump's first ad was also a missed opportunity to unite Republican voters behind an economic message, rather than one on immigration and Syrian refugees. Schriefer pointed to polls showing Trump winning fewer than 80 percent of Republicans and said the GOP nominee's first ad is unlikely to help him consolidate those voters and win crossover support.

"It seems to me that the easiest place for him to go and make up considerable ground is to go from 80 percent of Republicans, to 90 percent of Republicans," Schriefer said. "And it just seems to me that the message in this ad appeals maybe to the 78 percent that he’s already getting, but it doesn’t do much to increase the vote share with Republicans who are uneasy with Trump as the nominee and Trump as a potential president."

A Trump spokesman didn't return an email inquiry about the ad's messaging.

The other issue with Trump's first foray into TV ads: He's covering only about half the swing-state landscape.

Polls show tight contests in two small states that will each award six electoral votes: Iowa and Nevada. Clinton leads only by 0.6 points in POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average in Iowa, and she’s up by only 2 points in Nevada. But Republicans aren’t actively contesting those states on television: Clinton and her allies are spending a combined $2.4 million in Iowa and Nevada over the next two weeks. Pro-Trump spending there consists solely of a high-five-figure buy from the National Rifle Association’s Political Victory Fund, about $98,000.

Clinton has a more significant lead in New Hampshire. The POLITICO Battleground States polling average gives Clinton a 5.2-point lead there, and her campaign and the super PAC Priorities USA Action are set to spend about a half-million on ads over the next two weeks. Trump, or groups supporting his candidacy? Nothing.

And Priorities USA Action is still spending money in Colorado and Virginia — two states from which the Clinton campaign withdrew, at least temporarily, weeks ago. (Priorities USA executive director Guy Cecil told Bloomberg Politics this week it would be coming down in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia.)

Trump does have some backup on the airwaves in the core states. The super PAC Rebuilding America Now is spending more than $2.5 million over the next two weeks in Florida and Ohio. The NRA Political Victory Fund is set to spend a little over $1 million combined in North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

But it still leaves Trump, who has questioned the value of TV ads in the past, at a disadvantage at a precarious time for his candidacy.