More than a week after we were supposed to have left the European Union, and more than a week after solicitor Robin Tilbrook, head of the English Democrats Party maintains that legally we did leave the EU, Theresa May is still just about managing to slither over or under, or around all of the obstacles placed in her way, and to stumble on in the insistent and blinkered belief that her Brexit deal is ‘The One’. Sadly however, as time goes on, she seems more and more to be the only person who believes that.

Half of the Conservative Parliamentary Party believes her agreement will not give the EU enough power over us if it forms the basis of an eventual Brexit, while the other half believes it is ‘BINO’ — Brexit it name only – an arrangement that will leave the UK permanently locked into satellite status as a vassal state of the EU.

In desperation May has over the last few days attempted to negotiate with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, a version of her deal that might win the support of Her Majesty’s opposition, however, the Labour party is just as divided as the Tory Party where Brexit is concerned, albeit for different reasons, and the cross-party talks appear to be grinding to a halt.

Theresa May now has until the EU summit on Friday, to cobble together a deal with Jeremy Corbyn or else she will go to Brussels, cap in hand once more, to plead for a further extension to Article 50. Such a development will be fraught with danger however, both for Theresa and for the EU.

Theresa May wants a short extension, while the EU want a longer extension that will keep us trapped within the EU for a further year and which will involve the UK in participating in the European Parliamentary elections in May.

The EU are reluctant to grant a short extension to Article 50, on the grounds that with nothing new to offer there is no point allowing Theresa May any further time to continue hawking her tired old, three times rejected deal to a parliament and a British public who just don’t want it. Without an extension, the UK will leave the EU on May 20th on World Trade Organisation terms and it is likely that Mrs May will feel she has no choice but to step down from the Tory leadership.

If the EU force Theresa May to accept a year-long extension, the European elections will almost certainly see pro-Brexit parties like UKIP, the English Democrats, For Britain and Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party win lots of seats in the European Parliament, as long as they don’t stand against each other and split the anti-EU vote. The prospect for the EU of having perhaps thirty or forty anti-EU MEPs in the European Parliament is not something they would relish and this may bear heavily on their eventual decision as to whether or not they should grant any further extensions to Article 50. Already pro-Brexit MEPs, such a Nigel Farage and Patrick O’Flynn have been forewarning EU leaders that they will do all in their power to disrupt the proceedings of the European Parliament if the EU chooses to keep us trapped within the by granting May a further extension.

There is the very real possibility therefore, that while EU leaders would prefer to keep the UK trapped in BINO, and might still want to keep us trapped within the EU for years to come, they will decide they are better off without us and say no to Theresa May’s requests on Friday.

Should this happen it is likely that Labour would put forward a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister in the hope of provoking a general election.

As things stand however, with the Tory Party in disarray, Labour would decimate the Tory Party at the polls. Tory MPs are therefore likely to demand that Theresa May steps down so that they can elect a new leader and give that person several months at least to re-unite their party and make some headway in negotiating trade deals before facing a public vote.

Should there be an early general election, and Labour win, Jeremy Corbyn would have the ultimate ‘Get Out of Jail Free Card’, as no matter what a ‘dogs breakfast’ he may make of running the country, he will be able to blame it on Theresa May’s bungled Brexit for years to come.

For the Conservatives however, they will have no such convenient scapegoat. Whoever wins the Tory leadership will face the white-heat of public opinion and should they stumble or falter in that role, compounding the incompetence displayed by Theresa May, they can expect no mercy. While some leading figures within the Tory party may battle for the top job once May resigns, wiser heads will recognise it as a ‘poisoned chalice’ and prefer to step back and let someone else take the fall, in the hope of eventually securing the leadership some years hence, once the memory of the debacle we have all witnessed has dimmed considerably.

As for British nationalism, whichever way the Brexit saga plays out, we have been afforded a golden opportunity with which to capitalise on the demonstrable incompetence of the establishment parties and win new recruits. Let us work together, lets us redouble our efforts and fill our boots!

By Max Musson © 2019

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