WITH three electric games scheduled for the MCG in the opening round, there is every chance all sorts of AFL attendance records will be smashed this weekend as the 2017 season gets underway.

If the Carlton-Richmond, Collingwood-Western Bulldogs and Essendon-Hawthorn games each attract more than 70,000 fans – and the expectation is they should – then not only would the AFL's round one attendance record of 367,792, set in 2012, be under threat, but the overall record of 371,212, set in round 15 of 2013, could be surpassed.

We reckon the fans will turn up in droves as Australia's No.1 sport returns. As episodes such as Luke Hodge's 'mystery' training absence and Jordan De Goey's bizarre broken hand episode demonstrate, don't we badly need the games to start so that we can start talking about, you know, the footy?

Anyhow, we're putting our neck on the line to project how many people will attend each game. Check back Monday morning to see how we went.

Carlton v Richmond (MCG, Thursday, 7.20pm AEDT)

Highest: 83,493 - round one, 2015*

We think: 72,000

It's a Carlton home game, which might keep a few away but if you can't be excited about going to the footy, when can you? Anecdotally, the opening game gets more than its share of neutral supporters.

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs (MCG, Friday, 7.50pm AEDT)

Highest: 67,920 - round nine, 2006

We think: 69,000

It's not the Bulldogs' flag unfurling – that takes place next week – but it is a replacement game for their members so they should rock up in big numbers. There's always early season optimism at Collingwood and their fans will turn up in droves. Add the likelihood of Travis Cloke making his Dogs debut against the Pies and this is a great piece of fixturing.

St Kilda v Melbourne (Etihad Stadium, Saturday, 4.35pm AEDT)

Highest: 40,004 - round four, 2005

We think: 35,000

Another great piece of fixturing by the AFL as it pits the two clubs considered most likely to break into the top eight this year. Saints fans are up and about at the start of every season, but particularly now after a great summer. Melbourne supporters traditionally hate Docklands, but it is a different team this year, one that appears to have set itself to snap a 14-match losing streak to the Saints. If ever they dare venture to the western side of the CBD, this is the time.

Sydney v Port Adelaide (SCG, Saturday, 4.35pm AEDT)

Highest: 41,317 - round 13, 2014

We think: 32,000

The Swans are a big draw now and optimism is high for another finish deep into September. An issue here will be the weather, which can be sketchy in Sydney at this time of year. A few showers are predicted for this twilight game. Port aren’t a huge draw on the road although chairman 'Kochie' will be pleased to be able to drive to the footy.

Essendon v Hawthorn (MCG, Saturday, 7.25pm AEDT)

Highest: 61,006 – round six, 2010

We think: 85,000

The Bombers were given their choice of round one opponents and plumped for their great 1980s rivals. The banned Dons step out for the first time in 18 months, and even if you're the most casual Essendon fan – there is no excuse for missing this game. Bumping up this crowd figure even further is the fact that this is a replacement game for Hawthorn members because of the Tasmanian deal, so they'll be there in huge numbers as well, celebrating their own comeback game as new skipper Jarryd Roughead returns for the first time since 2015 after his cancer fight. Then there's Jaeger.

14 disposals in just over a quarter and now this! Jaeger O'Meara is tearing it up #JLTSeries pic.twitter.com/eqjOcjushW — AFL (@AFL) February 26, 2017

Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions (Metricon Stadium, Saturday, 7.05pm AEST)

Highest: 16,593 – round three, 2015

We think: 16,000

It's a football fiesta at Metricon with the AFLW Grand Final kicking off the day, and if enough Brisbane Lions fans choose to stick around for the nightcap then a healthy crowd figure can be expected. Do the people of the Gold Coast understand that a potentially very good team plays on their doorstep?

North Melbourne v West Coast (Etihad Stadium, Sunday 1.10pm AEDT)

Highest: 33,151 – round 5, 2005

We think: 26,000

The 'graveyard' of time slots, but it is that time of the year where we're between junior cricket and footy seasons, so it's not that bad for families. The Kangas are up to nearly 35,000 members, so unless they're into motor racing and attend the Australian Grand Prix instead, let's hope they turn up in droves. West Coast has about 5,000 fans in Victoria who get to every game.

Adelaide v Greater Western Sydney (Adelaide Oval, Sunday, 2.50pm ACDT)

Highest: 46,737 – round 10, 2016

We think: 42,000

There won't be much away support, but the Crows can pack out Adelaide Oval on their own and despite some likely key outs for the opening game, hopes of Adelaide supporters are riding high.

Fremantle v Geelong (Domain Stadium, Sunday, 4.40pm AWST)

Highest: 38,565 – round nine, 2014

We think: 36,000

This is a great rivalry, and while serial irritant Hayden Ballantyne's absence will be keenly felt, new skipper Nat Fyfe is back – and he's fit, firing and likely to go head to head with Patrick Dangerfield for parts of the game. Going back to the days of Polly Farmer, the Cats have always had a loyal following in Western Australia.

Total crowd prediction: 413,000

* Highest crowd is for home and away games only with the first named team as the home club.

Sore and sorry Swans

Let's not detract for a moment what a magnificent effort it was by the Western Bulldogs to win the 2016 Grand Final. It was a September (and early October) to remember and to cherish for the Dogs, while the match itself was as engrossing as they come for a flag decider.

But a bit overlooked amid all the romance was how brave the vanquished Sydney was. They were a kick from the lead until late in the final quarter, and as the subsequent stories of woe started to mount, it is becoming more evident what a great effort it was from the Swans to even get so close.

Lance Franklin entered the game with a shoulder banged up enough to require a reconstruction after the game and then he injured his ankle in the opening term. He played the game out, but was hampered.

Kurt Tippett missed an earlier final because of a fractured jaw, but had earlier missed a huge part of the season because of a serious hamstring injury. Luke Parker played the Grand Final with a PCL injury from the week before that needed post-season surgery. Dan Hannebery hurt his knee in the final quarter and tried to play the game out, but had to retreat to the bench.

Josh Kennedy was sore, Sam Naismith needed a shoulder reconstruction, Callum Mills and Jarrad McVeigh were underdone entering the Grand Final and McVeigh's calf issues are now chronic. For Tom Mitchell, who came to Hawthorn during the trade period, once the fitness staff there took a good look at him, they decided he needed to be held back from full training until after Christmas.

What does this tell us? That's eight players (that we know of) who were less than their best in the Grand Final and no doubt, there were plenty of hurting bodies on the other side as well.

The Swans have played deep into September for a few years and you can only admire that they keep fronting up year in and year out as they bash and crash their bodies for longer than most. They'll likely do so again this year.

And it probably adds further context to Hawthorn's achievement of winning three-straight flags from 2013-15 with the physical toll that took. While the Hawks would dearly have loved to have won again last year to enter the record books, what you do hear out of Waverley is how depleted they were at the end of last season. They have subsequently enjoyed both their biggest break and longest pre-season for five years.

Dan Hannebery and Tom Papley were a picture of dejection on Grand Final Day. Picture: AFL Photos



Gabba problems laid bare

That Saturday's AFLW Grand Final needed to be moved from the Gabba because of turf issues only brought to the surface what the Lions have known for more than a decade – they really are its second-class citizens.

Talk to those at the Lions and they'll tell you plenty of stories about the Gabba staff trying to put the Lions, and by extension the AFL, back in their place.

Former Lions coach Justin Leppitsch used to have regular run-ins with notorious curator Kevin Mitchell about access to the ground even in footy season. Never mind that the cricketers are allowed to kick the Sherrin for as long and as often as they want as part of their training sessions.

But as recently as a few weeks ago, Lions media staff were shooed away from the boundary area by security staff merely for trying to take a publicity photo for the AFLW team. That explains why whenever a new player joins the Lions, the obligatory happy snap in the new polo shirt usually takes place high up in the grandstand.

And when there is cricket on, particularly the Test match that usually starts the summer, Lions admin staff usually aren’t even allowed into those aforementioned grandstands to watch a few overs on their lunch break.

A caller to SEN radio the other night told of taking a guided tour of the Gabba recently, during which football and the Lions were mentioned once.

Once!

It is Mitchell who cops much of the flak, and deservedly so. But there are a few others at the Gabba who need to understand that they work for the venue, not just for one of the sports that primarily use it.

The Lions have struggled for a fair go at their home ground. Picture: AFL Photos



My movers and shapers

The annual industry-wide movers and shapers survey has appeared on AFL.com.au the last few days and will also appear in full in this week's edition of the AFL Record.

It is a fascinating project to compile and now in its second year, the extra twist is those who jump up the rankings and those who slide down or drop out entirely.

The survey is anonymous and drawn widely from throughout the industry, but for the sake of the exercise, here is my personal top 12.

1. Gillon McLachlan – Boss of the AFL. Nothing more to add.

2. Simon Lethlean – Brought AFLW to life and now heads up footy operations. Huge job.

3. Richard Goyder – Incoming AFL chairman. Not from Victoria, which is important.

4. Andrew Dillon – AFL chief counsel and McLachlan's main confidant and sounding board.

5. Alastair Clarkson – The best coach and a brilliant innovator.

6. Caroline Wilson – The best journo in the game. Breaks news and creates agendas.

7. Patrick Dangerfield – Who said great players don't need to walk down media street?

8. Kerry Stokes/Channel Seven – Shape so much of how we consume the game.

9. Paul Marsh – Happy players, happy game. Needs to bring the CBA home.

10. Ray Gunston – Negotiating the CBA and the AFL's investment model. Both vital.

11. Eddie McGuire – A bruising year but still commands a huge voice.

12. Rupert Murdoch/News/Herald Sun – Also play a huge role in how the game is consumed by millions.