Eight teams took a 3-1 series lead in their best-of-seven series in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, including 5 of 8 Preliminary round matchups. All won (Boston, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay [2], Vegas, Winnipeg, Washington). While a 3-1 lead is always a good thing, it's never a sure thing.



Through 2018, teams have trailed 3-1 in a best-of-seven series 300 times. Only 28 times has the trailing team comeback to win the series. Put another way, the team with a 3-1 series lead wins 90% of the time with the down-and-nearly-out team recovering only 10% of the time.



The chart below describes all 28 comebacks by year, team and round.

Year Matchup Round 1942 Toronto over Detroit Final 1975 New York* over Pittsburgh Preliminary 1987 New York* over Washington Preliminary

Detroit over Toronto Quarterfinal 1988 Washington over Philadelphia Quarterfinal 1989 Los Angeles over Edmonton Preliminary 1990 Edmonton over Winnipeg Preliminary 1991 St. Louis over Detroit Preliminary 1992 Detroit over Minnesota^ Preliminary

Vancouver over Winnipeg Preliminary

Pittsburgh over Washington Preliminary 1994 Vancouver over Calgary Preliminary 1995 Pittsburgh over Washington Preliminary 1998 Edmonton over Colorado Preliminary 1999 St. Louis over Phoenix Preliminary 2000 New Jersey over Philadelphia Semifinal 2003 Minnesota^^ over Colorado Preliminary

Vancouver over St. Louis Preliminary

Minnesota^^ over Vancouver Quarterfinal 2004 Montreal over Boston Preliminary 2009 Washington over New York** Preliminary 2010 Montreal over Washington Preliminary

Philadelphia over Boston Quarterfinal 2011 Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh Preliminary 2013 Chicago over Detroit Quarterfinal 2014 Los Angeles over San Jose Preliminary

New York** over Pittsburgh Quarterfinal 2015 New York** over Washington Quarterfinal

* New York Islanders

** New York Rangers

^ Minnesota North Stars

^^ Minnesota Wild



In the 31 seasons since all playoff rounds were expanded to best-of-seven series in 1987, 26 teams have comeback from a 3-1 deficit to win their series. In the thirteen postseasons since the 2004 NHL Lockout, however, only eight teams (Washington 2009, Montreal 2010, Philadelphia 2010, Tampa Bay 2011, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014, New York 2014, New York 2015) have turned the trick. Breaking it down by round, such comebacks have happened only once in the Stanley Cup Final (Toronto 1942) and Semifinal (New Jersey 2000), and seven times in the Quarterfinal (Detroit 1987, Washington 1988, Minnesota 2003, Philadelphia 2010, Chicago 2013, New York 2014, New York 2015), with the remaining 19 comebacks occurring during the Preliminary round.



Of the 28 teams that completed the comeback, six (6/28 = 21%) won the Stanley Cup (Toronto 1942, Edmonton 1990, Pittsburgh 1992, New Jersey 2000, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014) and three more made it to the Final but failed to hoist the hardware (Vancouver 1994, Philadelphia 2010, New York 2014).



Only one team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit twice in the same playoff (Minnesota 2003). Similarly, only one team has ever comeback down 3-1 and blown a 3-1 lead in the same postseason (Vancouver 2003).



The chart below lists all teams involved in such 3-1 series comebacks, showing the total number of series involving such circumstances and their overall win/loss record.





Team Series Record Washington 7 2-5 Detroit 5 2-3 Pittsburgh 5 2-3 Vancouver 4 3-1 Edmonton 3 2-1 New York** 3 2-1 St. Louis 3 2-1 Philadelphia 3 1-2 Los Angeles 2 2-0 Minnesota^^ 2 2-0 Montreal 2 2-0 New York* 2 2-0 Toronto 2 1-1 Boston 2 0-2 Colorado 2 0-2 Winnipeg 2 0-2 Chicago 1 1-0 New Jersey 1 1-0 Tampa Bay 1 1-0 Calgary 1 0-1 Minnesota^ 1 0-1 Phoenix 1 0-1 San Jose 1 0-1

In sum, with a 10% chance of recovery for teams trailing their series 3-1, it's statistically likely their season will soon end.