[Breaking down the plausibility of the week's biggest rumor.]

The Colorado Avalanche missed the playoffs again this year and got worse than they were last season, going .500 on the year.

It is really hard to go .500 or worse in the NHL these days, because of the loser point and because there are a number of teams that make it really easy to pick up easy wins. What the Avs seemed not to realize as they came into the year was that they were almost certainly one of those doormats.

The weird thing about the Avs is that they are more talented than most of the teams that finished in the general area of point-a-game. For example, Buffalo, Winnipeg, and New Jersey would likely kill to have Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie and Semyon Varlamov on the roster, among other decent enough players. The problem is clearly one of management.

Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy clearly thought this team was good enough to be competitive, but pursued some not-good additions in the offseason that actually did active harm to their chances. These moves were made in pursuit of intangibles (jam, leadership, etc.) that they thought would help but are actually valueless, or at least of so little value as to not even come close to outweighing the detriment the players allegedly providing those qualities carried with them.

The easiest change for the Avs to make and improve the team is, of course, to jettison both Roy and Sakic and replace them with people who actually understand the management side of the sport. And if you thought that was going to happen (ha ha ha), it was all but confirmed in the past week that it will, of course, not.

So how will they attempt to improve the team? Probably by making a sizable mistake or two.

The Rumor

While there are no concrete rumors out there quite yet as to what the Avs plan to do, we know that they're down for whatever.

Here's Joe Sakic, rolling out the cliches bright and early in this offseason: “Wayne Gretzky got traded — twice. We have to explore different options to see how we can become a better team.”

Gabriel Landeskog added that the players understand no one is immune to being traded, and Matt Duchene added that they have trust that Sakic and Roy can make things work (they shouldn't, obviously, but Roy's made it clear you gotta yes-sir the boss to death). Sakic also revealed that efforts will be made to overhaul the team's system to make them more competitive.

(My favorite stat of the Roy era is that the Avs get out-attempted by 10.7 per game in all situations. Compare that with Edmonton's 5.9-per-game deficit, and then remember the Avs have been trying to win this whole time, while the Oilers very much have not.)

But the most obvious area for a potential change is obviously the maybe-out-of-favor 30-goal-scorer Matt Duchene, who drew Roy's ire by celebrating his milestone goal in a(nother) blowout loss. He has long been a rumored trade chip for the Avs, who are looking to upgrade their blue line. Now, those rumors are getting a bit noisier.

As evidenced by last summer's Ryan O'Reilly trade, Sakic isn't afraid to make a move to ship out a guy who clearly makes the team better just because he's fallen out of favor with the coach. Trading Duchene would be another move like that and the player himself has acknowledged it's a real possibility at a few junctures now.

Also worth noting: MacKinnon and Barrie are both pending RFAs this summer, so for a non-cap team like the Avs to free up some cash by shipping out Duchene might be (incorrectly) seen as a potential benefit for the club in that regard too.

Other moves might be made as well, obviously, but this is the one that people should be thinking about as the biggest possibility.

Who's Going Where?

Okay so let's think about what happens if Duchene is on the block. Someone should want a 25-year-old who just broke 30 goals and had previously scored 20 four times. Especially because he's signed with a $6 million cap hit through 2019, which brings a lot of cost certainty to the proceedings.

Of note: The Duchene-out-the-door skids might be greased further by the rumors from Elliotte Friedman a while back that the Avs are considered the frontrunner for Alex Radulov.

And what are the Avs looking for? Defense, obviously. And if you listen to Roy, they'd really like defenders who have a good plus-minus. (Ahhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!)

Story continues