Given the recent rash of injuries suffered by the Portland Timbers, when goalkeeper Adam Larsen Kwarasey went down with injury in the second half of the Timbers most recent game against San Jose, the reaction was probably somewhere between “oh no, not another injury” and “this team is cursed, everyone is hurt, the world is ending.” To most, a Kwarasey injury is the last thing the Timbers need right now. Perhaps Timbers fans have resigned themselves to 2016 being similar to previous years, where slow starts mean they need a hot finish to make the playoffs. Injuries, again, could provide a convenient, and mostly legitimate, excuse for Timbers fans, players, and coaches seeking explanations for the team’s recent play, despite their most recent result being a 3-1 win over San Jose.

Kwarasey Injury Provides Opportunity for Timbers, Gleeson

After all, left-back Chris Klute, the replacement for Jorge Villafana, only just returned from injury, captain and centre-back Liam Ridgewell remains out, starting wingers Dairon Asprilla and Lucas Melano have both missed time, as has Darlington Nagbe, and now right-back Alvas Powell also faces an extended absence. That’s a lot of injuries to deal with only two months into the season, and adding a goalkeeper injury behind a backline that’s already been destabilized by injury and poor performance might not seem like a reason for optimism. But it can be.

Kwarasey’s injury isn’t just something that the Timbers can survive, it’s something they can learn from, and possibly even improve from. There’s a couple of reasons for this. First, despite having a mostly positive reputation since coming to Portland, Kwarasey has actually been mediocre, at best, and by at least one measure, one of the worst goalkeepers in Major League Soccer. To be sure, he’s had some great moments, and as proven his ability to make some miraculous saves, but the numbers would suggest he has been much worse than most would think. But more on that later.

The second reason for optimism comes in the form of Jake Gleeson, the Timbers backup goalkeeper and temporary (perhaps long-term?) replacement for Kwarasey. If Gleeson is merely average while filling in, he could be an improvement, but there’s reason to hope that Gleeson could be significantly above average. Plus, even if he’s only as good as Kwarasey, he’s significantly cheaper, which is not unimportant in MLS.

Kwarasey isn’t as good as you might think he is

Let’s start with the first point, that Kwarasey has been, at best, mediocre, in his time in Portland. In 2015, Kwarasey posted the 2nd worst goals against minus expected goals against in all of MLS, with only Toronto FC’s Joe Bendik scoring worse, according to AmericanSoccerAnalysis.com. Kwarasey’s actual goals against of 36 was 5.82 goals higher than his expected goals against of 30.18. For comparison sake, by this measure, Nick Rimando was the best goalkeeper in MLS last year, conceding only 23 goals against 32.31 expected goals against. For all goalkeepers with over 1,000 minutes, the average goals conceded was 31.96, while the average expected goals against was 32.27, for a -0.3 average goals minus expected goals against. It hasn’t gotten better in 2016, as Kwarasey has already given up 12 goals against 7.61 expected goals against.

To go beyond expected goal stats, consider a few examples. Remember that goal Quincy Amarikwa scored from distance earlier this year? Was it a great finish? Sure, but should any goalkeeper ever get beat from that far out? Nope.

Kwarasey’s positioning routinely gets him into trouble.

Here’s a free kick goal from Real Salt Lake’s Joao Plata earlier this year. Again, nice goal, but definitely within reach until Kwarasey goes the wrong way unnecessarily.

And then there are plays like this, where Kwarasey just whiffs on a ball in the air. :

A similar miss on a punch led to a goal for FC Dallas earlier this year in a 3-1 Timbers loss.

And this one where, well, who really knows? Between his positioning and decision making with the ball, your guess is as good as mine.

Is Kwarasey one of the worst goalkeepers in MLS, as the expected goals data would suggest on its own? No, certainly not, and he has come up huge for the Timbers in some key moments. But, at $260,000 per year (per MLS Players Union), the Timbers should be able to expect more out of their keeper than their getting.

The Potential of Gleeson

Enter Jake Gleeson. Gleeson has long been, seemingly forever, the future of the Portland Timbers at goalkeeper. That future looked bleak when Kwarasey, only 28, was brought in. However, after some solid performances in limited opportunities last year, and the chance for extended minutes with Kwarasey out, this may be Gleeson’s chance to prove that he can be a starting MLS goalkeeper, and perhaps even show the Timbers that they’ve got a much cheaper quality option in goal on their roster.

Gleeson has been with the Timbers since they came into MLS, first with their U-23 side, then out on loan with Sacramento Republic in 2014, where he was a Goalkeeper of the Year finalist and posted a clean sheet in the USL championship game, and spent 2015 with Timbers 2 again in USL.

Gleeson’s most memorable appearance as a Timber came in last year’s MLS Cup run, when he posted a clean sheet while filling in for Kwarasey against Vancouver. Gleeson made three saves in a solid performance, and while Portland dominated possession and the game, Gleeson kept focused, something Kwarasey sometimes seems to struggle with during long spells of inaction.

While Gleeson is not a sure thing at the MLS level, he’s shown enough in his time in USL and his brief spells in MLS to give the Timbers reason to be optimistic going into the next few weeks. Given the salary cap realities within MLS, Gleeson shouldn’t even have to be great in order to make a case for the number one job in Portland. If Gleeson can simply match Kwarasey’s low bar, the Timbers would be wise to offload Kwarasey and his $260,000 salary this summer and go with Gleeson and his $72,600 going forward, freeing up almost $200,000 in cap space for any other moves they might want to make, such as finding defensive help.

I’m not saying Kwarasey is terrible or that Gleeson is definitely the goalkeeper of the future for the Timbers. All I’m saying is that he could be, and Kwarasey hasn’t set the bar very high. Timbers fans, coaches, and the front office should go into the coming weeks open to the idea that Gleeson could emerge as their best option in goal.