Iowa Democrats nearly pulled off the upset to end all upsets by coming surprisingly close in a Northwest Iowa special election for Senate District 3 tonight. In a district where Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton 68% to 27%, Democrat Todd Wendt fell to Republican Representative Jim Carlin by just 55% to 45%. Where Trump won the district by a +41 margin in November 2016, Democrats closed that gap to a Republican +10 tonight, a swing of 31 points for the Democrats.

Carlin – who currently represents half the Senate district in the Iowa House – was expected to win handily in the election to replace Senator Bill Anderson, who announced he was resigning from the Iowa Senate a few months back to take a new job. Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by more than two to one in the district (17,677 Republicans and 8,719 Democrats). Senate District 3 covers nearly all of Plymouth County, the Morningside part of Sioux City and part of rural Woodbury County.

But Democrats could hardly have come up with a stronger candidate for the district. Todd Wendt’s father, Roger Wendt, was a popular legislator from Sioux City in the 2000s. Todd Wendt was the recently retired superintendent of the Le Mars School District in Plymouth County, the more Republican part of the district. Well-known in both counties, Wendt ran a strong campaign in the few months since Anderson’s resignation announcement with the assistance of the local Democratic county parties. The Woodbury County Democrats are one of the best-organized parties in the entire state.

He also got some help from the gubernatorial candidates. Nate Boulton and John Norris visited the district to help out in recent weeks, and Fred Hubbell’s staff pitched in today on the phones.

Wendt actually won the Woodbury side of the district, 51% to 49%, despite Carlin representing that area. With Carlin’s promotion to the Senate, voters in Woodbury County will now see another special election to fill his House District 6 seat. Although Trump beat Clinton 62% to 33% there, House Democrats could certainly see this as a district suddenly within striking distance with the right candidate given tonight’s results.

The shift in the vote in Woodbury precincts were significant. In Sioux City’s Precinct 24, where Clinton won just 33% of the vote in 2016, Wendt carried it by 58% (this is without the absentees added in, but Wendt and Carlin split that vote nearly evenly, so it wouldn’t make much difference). See the full changes here:

Take a look at this: compare the Trump & Clinton % to tonight's Carlin (R) & Wendt (D) %s in the NW Iowa senate special election (caveat that absentees aren't distributed into precincts, but since they're relatively even it wouldn't make too big a difference) pic.twitter.com/HKZYrOpbd2 — Iowa Starting Line (@IAStartingLine) December 13, 2017

This marks the fourth Iowa legislative special election since 2016 where Democrats have vastly over-performed the Trump/Clinton margin – twice in Democratic-leaning districts, and now twice in Republican-leaning districts. It’s boosted the party’s hopes that 2018 could be a good year for a big bounce-back – or at the very least that it’ll be much more competitive than the recent electoral red waves. And it gives some optimism that Trump’s 10-point statewide win – marked by massive swings to Republicans in rural and blue-collar counties – may have been a one-time blip and not part of a larger trend toward Iowa becoming a deep-red state.

Tonight’s special election was triggered by Senator Anderson announcing his resignation early into his third term in office. He had been on the outs with the Republican senate leadership, and it was thought that Senator Bill Dix’s handling of the sexual harassment scandal may have played into Anderson’s frustration.

Governor Kim Reynolds will now need to call a special election for House District 6, which will probably be held sometime in January or February. The battle for Morningside will be the next high-profile special election for Iowa’s parties.

by Pat Rynard

Posted 11/12/17