The attention of Illinoisans is fixed on the cash-drenched, record-shattering governor’s race. But it’s a typically-under-the-radar congressman’s bid for reelection that’s being closely watched across the nation for clues about the direction of the Democratic Party in the post-Obama era.

On the eve of Tuesday’s Illinois primary, veteran Democratic Congressman Dan Lipinski’s opposition to abortion rights had thrown into question whether there’s still room for him in his party as he faces challenger Marie Newman, who’s backed by major abortion rights and progressive groups.


The outcome won’t have much bearing on the battle for the House majority, since the eventual Democratic nominee is expected to win easily in November in the solidly Democratic, Chicago-based 3rd District. But it will reveal whether conservative, Blue Dog Democrats like Lipinski have a future in a party that continues to veer leftward.

The big-money governor’s race is a different story. At the top of the ticket, two contentious primaries will serve as precursors to the main event in November, which could be one of the most expensive gubernatorial races in American history.

The favorites Tuesday are billionaire Democrat J.B. Pritzker and multi-millionaire Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. Pritzker has spent a stunning $70 million in the primary — with $34 million of that going toward TV ads, according to Advertising Analytics. Rauner, widely considered the most vulnerable governor in the nation, has spent $17 million so far on TV alone.

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Both are facing tougher-than-expected challenges. As late as Monday, Rauner — who had all but ignored conservative state Rep. Jeanne Ives until just last month — was squarely focused on a new, mischief-making Democratic Governors Association ad calling Ives the true conservative.

“What they’re doing in the Democratic Governors Association is trying to get primary voters to vote for Ives,” Rauner said.

Those aren’t the only contests worth watching. An open attorney general’s seat has attracted a crowded field of Donald Trump-bashing Democrats — and former Gov. Pat Quinn. And keep an eye on the GOP primary in the 16th District, where Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s willingness to buck Trump could cloud his performance, and the suburban Chicago-area 6th District, where Democrats have a seven-way primary to face GOP Rep. Peter Roskam in what could be one of the most competitive races in the nation in November.

Here are five things to watch as Illinois goes to the polls on Tuesday:

The magic turnout number

Anecdotal reports suggest weak, unenthusiastic Republican voter turnout, which could explain why Rauner seemed especially unnerved by the DGA’s ploy to steer conservatives toward Ives. The conventional thinking is that if fewer than 550,000 Republicans turn out statewide, Ives can pull off an upset, given that it’s the true party-line voters who get to the polls.

Here’s one snapshot: In solidly Republican McHenry County, just 2,550 GOP voters pulled ballots, which is down from 2014. Democrats in the same county, meanwhile, have tripled their early turnout from four years ago to 2,430.

Rauner is betting his strongest performance happens in Cook County and the Chicago collar counties where more moderate Republicans live. He’s also hoping his veto last week of a gun control bill will help draw out voters in deep-red Southern Illinois. If more than 600,000 Republicans show up at the polls, it’s likely smooth sailing for Rauner.

On the Democratic side, early voting numbers in Chicago are nearly rivaling 2016 levels, a testament to a highly competitive governor’s race and attorney general’s race.

Big Democratic turnout is viewed as a good signal for Lipinski challenger Newman. Another promising sign for Newman: Nearly 40 percent of the early voters so far in the 3rd District are infrequent voters, compared to just 9 percent in 2014, according to campaign lists maintained by the Service Employees International Union.

Can Lipinski hang on?

A collection of national groups — from NARAL to the Human Rights Campaign to EMILY’s List — were on the ground early for Marie Newman (pictured), who is trying to beat incumbent Rep. Dan Lipinski. | Sara Burnett/AP Photo

No race in Illinois has captured as much national attention as Lipinski’s struggle to hold on to his seat. A collection of national groups — including NARAL Pro-Choice America, the Human Rights Campaign and EMILY’s List — were on the ground early for Newman. Lipinski has long had a lock on local Chicago organizations including machine-powered wards in the 11th (historic home to the Daley family), 13th (home to state party boss and House Speaker Mike Madigan) and 14th (home to the powerhouse Burke family). Lipinski in the past has relied heavily on those foot soldiers to get the job done.

“Historically, that kind of organizational support has been very valuable, especially when the race isn't competitive enough to be a TV race,” said Scott Kennedy, who heads the Illinois Election Data website.

But Newman unleashed early TV attacks against Lipinski that the congressman left unanswered for three weeks at a critical time in the primary. And several of his congressional colleagues have endorsed his opponent. Worse, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee declined to throw him a lifeline. What little polling exists suggests the race is within single digits.

The Pritzker primary

The biggest story lines from the Democratic governor’s race are Pritzker’s $70 million in spending, RFK son Chris Kennedy’s name ID and state Sen. Daniel Biss’ ability to attract liberal voters.

High African-American turnout could boost Kennedy, who has polled the strongest among black voters and invested heavily in reaching the city’s black neighborhoods. But high voter turnout overall may benefit Biss, who has worked to inspire a new wave of progressives.

The telltale sign for Pritzker will be voter turnout downstate, where he’s built infrastructure aimed at reviving Democratic enthusiasm in what’s turned into Trump country. With Biss and Kennedy likely splitting the anti-establishment vote, Pritzker could have a clear path if he manages to lure Democrats to the polls across the state.

The politics of abortion rights

Rauner never anticipated a race this tight. But conservatives have made clear they want to punish the incumbent governor, especially for signing a bill that expands public funding of abortion.

That’s placed abortion rights opponents in an awkward position. While Ives has enjoyed their support, she could take a hit in the Chicago area, where conservative groups like Susan B. Anthony List are urging voters to pull a ballot for Lipinski — a Democrat who’s been targeted by NARAL and EMILY’s List.

In Lipinski‘s congressional district, that’s potentially 17,000 voters opposing abortion rights who won’t be able to cast a vote for Ives. (Of course, they wouldn’t be voting for Rauner either.)

With activists supporting his position on abortion flooding the district in the waning days of the campaign, those votes could end up saving Lipinski.

“They have the highest or the second highest rate of Republicans pulling Democratic ballots in the state,” said SEIU political director Jerry Morrison, whose labor group is backing Newman.

The Trump factor

Trump has been a staple of Democratic campaign ads in offices across the ballot — most notably in the crowded race for attorney general, where a handful of the candidates have promised to wage war against the White House.

But Trump also figures in the GOP gubernatorial primary, where Ives is betting that the governor’s refusal to even say the president’s name gives her the edge in Southern Illinois, which went heavily for Trump.

For his part, Rauner’s been walking a tightrope on the issue, trying not to alienate conservative voters in the primary while keeping his options open with anti-Trump voters who he’ll need in the general election — there are many of them in a state where Trump won just 38 percent of the vote.

In House races, Trump is also a factor. In the 3rd District, opponents have worked to tie Lipinski to the president. And in the 16th District, GOP Rep. Kinzinger’s coolness toward Trump could cost him some votes against businessman Jim Marter, a pro-Trump conservative.