Study: Social distancing could have already saved 10K lives in CT

Signs are in place along the Pequonnock River Trail to remind visitors to maintain proper social distancing during the COVID-19 crisis, seen here in Trumbull, Conn. April 16, 2020. Signs are in place along the Pequonnock River Trail to remind visitors to maintain proper social distancing during the COVID-19 crisis, seen here in Trumbull, Conn. April 16, 2020. Photo: Ned Gerard / Hearst Connecticut Media Photo: Ned Gerard / Hearst Connecticut Media Image 1 of / 32 Caption Close Study: Social distancing could have already saved 10K lives in CT 1 / 32 Back to Gallery

NEW HAVEN — Social distancing measures may have already saved 10,000 lives in Connecticut, according to projections from a New Haven public health organization.

Projections released Thursday from the DataHaven model were made using New York Times epidemiological model of the number of COVID-19-related infections and deaths in Connecticut, depending on the severity and length of social distancing measures. The researchers compared the death projections based on Connecticut’s ongoing social distancing measures to the death projections for the state had it not taken any measures and found a difference of 10,000 deaths.

“Social distancing enables us to ‘break the chain of infection’ as it mitigates opportunities for COVID-19 to spread to others, who in turn, may infect many more,” said Brian Weeks, epidemiologist for the City of New Haven Health Department. “Without social distancing and with limited measures/actions, this can rapidly snowball into tens to hundreds to thousands of additional cases burdening the health care system with possible fatalities that could have been easily prevented.”

According to DataHaven data, there were 5,660 new coronavirus cases reported in Connecticut between April 17 to 22, a 19 percent increase over the previous five days. Municipalities with the highest concentration of cases included Stamford, Norwalk, Danbury, West Haven and Bridgeport. The virus has left roughly 2,000 people throughout the state currently hospitalized, according to the data.

An additional two weeks of social distancing could save 4,000 more lives, according to DataHaven’s projections, and an additional month could save as many as 6,000.

“While the coronavirus pandemic is creating significant hardships and poor health outcomes for so many communities across our state, we should also take a moment to congratulate residents for their collective efforts to save so many of their neighbors’ lives,” said Mark Abraham, executive director of DataHaven.