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If a federal election were held today, one third would vote either for the federal NDP or the Conservatives (34% each), a new poll says.

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According to a random sampling of public opinion taken by Forum Research, among 1,720 Canadians 18 years of age or older, just fewer than one quarter would vote Liberal (22%), and few would vote either Bloc Quebecois (6%), Green (4%) or for other parties (1%).

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These poll results mark a slight increase for the Conservatives from 31% in last month’s poll, the research company said.

With these voting intentions, an election today would see the Tories take 140 seats for a minority in Parliament while the NDP would grab 114 seats. Just last month, those surveyed would have handed the NDP 128 seats, giving them a minority, while the Conservatives would have gotten 114 seats.

“Small shifts in the popular vote can lead to large shifts in the projected seat count when the two leading parties are all knotted up like this,” said Forum Research president, Lorne Bozinoff. “It’s a very fluid situation.”

The poll was conducted on Aug. 22, 2012. Results of the poll are considered accurate plus or minus 2.36%, 19 times out of 20.

National Post