Whether it will mark an end to Altaf Hussain’s politics or a new beginning for Muttahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM) is premature to say, but a comprehensive legal reference, which the government intends to send to the British government in the next couple of weeks, can make things extremely difficult for Altaf Hussain to continue his politics in Pakistan. So, what he and the party will decide?

The new ‘minus Altaf’ formula is different from the past. There will be no defection, no change of loyalties of MNAs or MPAs, but the authorities intend to completely eliminate the party’s militant wing and isolate Altaf Hussain.

MQM, as a party, would be allowed to continue but without its ‘tanzeemi committee’ (TC), which the authorities believe is controlled by the militants. Thus, TC might not be allowed to function, even if it is not officially announced so.

MQM may also find it difficult to continue with its sectors and units heads particularly those nominated by Hammad Siddiqui or even by Aamir Khan.

But how strong the government intends to come down on Altaf Hussain? Talking to some very senior officials in the Rangers and within the government suggests there is a clear ‘red line’ on his future politics or on MQM’s alleged militancy. Some 1,000 to 1200 MQM men including heads of sectors and units in Sindh have been marked as ‘militants’.

The legal reference, which interior minister, Ch. Nisar Ali Khan has mentioned, comprisesdozens of criminal cases including Dr. Imran Farooq case and its links with Pakistan. The authorities attach importance to the statement of key suspect, Muzzam Ali, and claim that they have collected important evidence. There are dozens of money laundering inquires also.

Sources well aware of these developments also revealed that DG Rangers, Maj. General, Bilal Akhtar, is likely to go to London soon in this connection. He has recently met the interior minister to discuss the progress in some sensitive cases

particularly those in which Altaf Hussain’s direct links were found, which would be essential to establish that despite being a British national, he is allegedly instigating violence here.

Sources said he has also given the list of 56 alleged MQM militants, who received training in India to the minister.

The government does not want to file a weak reference, as it knows how difficult it would be to block his Pakistan’s links under the British laws. Therefore, the Rangers have only picked those cases that have strong evidence of the alleged direct involvement of MQM leader.

Altaf Hussain, in his emotional speech on Thursday, during which he almost broke down, talked about the conspiracy to form a new MQM and, at the same time, admitted that party leaders, Rabita Committee members and ex-ministers are leaving him. It was Altaf’s counter attack as he knew that things are getting difficult for him. Sensing the pressure on the party leaders, he has already alerted them. So, he has rallied workers around and it is his preemptive measure so that the remaining party leaders would not fall in any trap. So far Altaf Hussain has maintained his grip on the party, though he himself has hinted at cracks in the party when he said that the people are running away.

But what will he do if he loses the case and gets jailed. Has he decided who will run the show in his absence? This time around he is finding it difficult to find strong leaders to defend him except Dr Frooq Sattar and a few others. Above all, his own speeches have become his biggest problem.

Under the new ‘formula, he might though continue as a symbolic head of the party In the past the revolts were against Altaf; the first led by Afaq and Aamir and the second by former MQM chairman Azeem Ahmad Tariq. This time, there may not be any revolt but the idea is to isolate him.

Some believe Governor Ishratul Ibad has been tasked by the establishment to contact those party leaders who have not officially left the party but have decided to remain silent and are living in Dubai, USA and in London.

Governor Ibad has succeeded in persuading the establishment not to repeat the events of 92 or 94, or cause a split in the party and has also asked for political rights for Muhajirs.The move under the new formula is simple; cut off all his links and contacts in Pakistan; seek ban on his activities in London particularly his links here as the authorities here are moving fast on Dr. Imran Farooq case but are still undecided about handing over three suspects including the key accused Muzzam Ali to the British government. Some very important details of the case would be part of the reference.

But why disband the Tanzeemi Committee? Some concerned senior officials indicate that in the light of investigations and interrogation of key members of the committee, they are now convinced that this committee was allegedly controlled party militants, which MQM denies. MQM social network, Al-Kidmat Foundation and others may not be allowed to collect hides on Eidul Azha.”

The authorities feels that if they succeed in persuading the British government to proceed against Altaf Hussain in the light of the reference, and if he gets convicted in London, the MQM would be left with no other option but to look for a new leader.

So, political temperature in Sindh is going up but at the same time chances of local bodies elections are getting slim. How MQM fares in these elections will decide whether the party can forge ahead without Altaf Hussain.

The authorities here are confident that after filing a strong reference against Altaf Hussain, it would be difficult for the British government to allow him to continue with the alleged violence-linked politics. This, they believe, will provide MQM an opportunity to adopt a different political discourse without discarding Altaf. This is the new ‘minus Altaf’ formula and maybe a ‘new’ MQM.

The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.

