By Scott Conroy - April 20, 2013

When he won the Republican nomination earlier this month for a special election in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, Mark Sanford appeared well on his way to a political comeback that was once nearly inconceivable.

But after new accusations surfaced this week about his personal behavior, the former South Carolina governor’s chances seem to have waned significantly.

The Associated Press first reported that Sanford’s ex-wife, Jenny, had filed a court complaint accusing him of trespassing at her home in February -- a violation of their divorce agreement. Sanford then publicly admitted to having done so -- but characterized the incident as an innocent misunderstanding, saying he merely wanted to watch the Super Bowl with his young son.

But hours after the report emerged, the National Republican Congressional Committee announced that it would not help fund the candidate’s campaign ahead of his May 7 general election contest against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Thursday launched a hard-hitting ad campaign drawing attention to Sanford’s alleged ethics violations as governor and his infamous “hike on the Appalachian Trail” -- the official excuse for the governor’s whereabouts in 2009 when he went missing for nearly a week. In fact, he was secretly visiting his mistress in Argentina.

Additionally, House Majority PAC (a Democratically aligned super PAC) has begun a six-figure ad campaign of its own.

Now only national Democrats are investing in a race that was expected to draw large amounts of money on both sides, leaving South Carolina Republicans to lament the position they find themselves in.

Sanford was a slight favorite over Colbert Busch when the general election campaign began in the GOP-leaning district, but his chances of retaking the seat he held from 1995 to 2001 may now be slipping away.

“Losing the GOP support machine might be enough to allow Elizabeth Colbert Busch to crest at just the right time,” said South Carolina GOP strategist Dave Wilson. “Can we recover? Sure. Will it be this time around? I'm not so sure.”

For its part, the Sanford camp is trying to capitalize on its sudden cash disadvantage by portraying Colbert Busch as being fully aligned with the national Democratic Party.

“I think this raises an incredibly interesting question, and that is: What are Nancy Pelosi and national Democrats expecting from Colbert Busch that they’re willing to spend a million dollars to get it?” Sanford said in a statement. “My opponent has gone [to] great lengths to distance herself from the liberal Beltway crowd, but it simply isn’t believable that those same folks would be trying to buy this race for someone who would truly be an independent voice in Washington.”

The Sanford team announced Friday that the former governor would embark on a heavy slate of public events, including 15 stops around the coastal district over the next five days. The candidate extended an offer for Colbert Busch to join him on the trail, but the Democrat has been lying low recently as negative attention remains pinned on her opponent.

Her campaign announced Friday that she would stump in several locations in Beaufort County on Saturday.

South Carolina Republicans in Congress have been reluctant to discuss their support for Sanford, but Rep. Joe Wilson lamented to the Washington Post on Thursday that primary voters in his neighboring district had not chosen a different nominee in the March primary and April runoff.

“At least 10 to 12 of the people would have been terrific candidates,” Wilson said. “I’m concerned about how the primary worked out. It was just so unfortunate.”

State Republican operatives, meanwhile, have been increasingly second-guessing their party’s wisdom in choosing someone whose political baggage was already vividly evident before last week’s revelation.

"Sometimes the worst wounds are self-inflicted,” said Greenville-based Republican consultant Chip Felkel. “The GOP and Sanford knew this was coming, and he still ran. And for some reason, the party allowed a crowded field, which paved the way. Lots of blame to go around if Colbert Busch wins.”

The Democrat has thus far declined to comment on the most recent Sanford controversy, allowing her opponent’s personal woes to speak for themselves.

Public polling in the race has been sparse with 18 days remaining until the election. With an unpredictable homestretch ahead, some South Carolina Republicans say Sanford still has a chance to win.

Longtime South Carolina strategist Richard Quinn told RCP that Sanford’s best shot at another comeback may be to hope that his opponent shifts away from her strategy of emphasizing a positive message.

“Her best shot is to come off as an independent businessperson and job creator who won't serve the agenda of national Democrats or Obama,” Quinn said. “When the DCCC reminds us she's the Democrat they want, we may see a return to party voting patterns, which would help Mark.”