TORONTO

NDP MP Olivia Chow would be Toronto’s next mayor … if she put her name on the ballot, according to a new poll.

A Forum Research poll provided exclusively to the Toronto Sun found Chow would win any hypothetical match-up of the candidates — including incumbent Rob Ford — who are planning to or rumoured to be running in next October’s election.

But the poll also shows that Ford’s chances of beating Chow improve as the field becomes more crowded.

The poll conducted last Wednesday came after weeks of bad publicity for Ford as he continued to take flak for his ongoing crack cocaine scandal — and just days after council voted to strip the mayor of much of his power.

“There are a couple of takeaways here — in the first place, the more crowded the field, the more it works to the mayor’s advantage,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement. “Next, the more Ford Nation thinks about a Chow candidacy, the more firm is their opposition.

“Third, Rob Ford is closing the gap on all his competitors as the campaign draws closer, and he has a year of free time to work on closing the gap further.”

The poll asked residents who they would vote for if an election were held now and provided a list of possible candidates.

In a three-way race between Ford, Councillor Karen Stintz and former councillor David Soknacki — the only three confirmed 2014 candidates — Stintz would beat the mayor, capturing 40% of the vote, compared to the incumbent’s 35%. Soknacki would attract the support of 13% of residents and 12% of respondents indicated they didn’t know who to vote for.

In a three-way race between Chow, Stintz and Soknacki, the MP received the support of 46% of those polled while Stintz captured 18% and Soknacki 10%. Around 26% said they didn’t know who to support.

In a four-way race, which added Ford to the mix, Chow would win with 39% while Ford would place second place with 34%. Stintz would receive the support of 17% of voters, while Soknacki could count on only securing 5% of the votes cast. Another 5% were undecided.

If radio show host John Tory was in a race with Ford, Stintz and Soknacki, the mayor would come out on top with 33%. Tory would place second (27%), followed by Stintz (24%) and Soknacki (5%). Another 10% of respondents were undecided.

With Chow added to that slate, she would win with 34% support, followed by Ford (31%), Tory (22%), Stintz (7%) and Soknacki (4%). Another 3% indicated they were undecided.

In a six-person contest — including Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong — Chow would still win with 34%, followed closely by Ford (31%). Tory would score 20%, Stintz 7%, Minnan-Wong 4%, Soknacki 3% and 2% were undecided.

Forum said the poll — a telephone survey of 1,049 Toronto residents — is accurate within 3%, 19 times out of 20.