"This is a race among local political superstars. Liberal incumbent Doug Eyolfson, a former ER physician unseated the then-Conservative MP in a stunning upset in 2015, and he’s now facing a rematch with that former MP, Steven Fletcher, who is running for the People’s Party. The Conservatives are running a star candidate of their own, Marty Morantz, a Winnipeg city councillor."

Maxime Bernier addresses the crowd in Toronto as he reveals the People's Party of Canada's candidates for some of the city's ridings. Richard Lautens/Toronto Star

Maxime Bernier, the leader of the People’s Party, is scheduled to hear a final decision today from the Leaders’ Debates Commission about whether he can participate in their debates, scheduled for Oct. 7 (English) and Oct. 10 (French).

The Leaders’ Debates Commission itself was spawned by the 2015 election. Historically, the national media outlets acted as a consortium that hosted and broadcasted debates in both official languages. In 2015, convention was tossed aside when then-prime minister Stephen Harper refused to participate in debates organized by the consortium and said he would instead participate in other organized debates. This caused great uncertainty for media and election watchers, and the Leaders’ Debates Commission was established by the Liberal government to manage future national electoral debates.

In the late summer of 2019, the commission invited Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, Green leader Elizabeth May and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet to participate. On that day, it informed Bernier that he had not satisfied the criteria for participation but gave the leader some time and avenues to appeal this decision. The People’s Party did not provide additional information to the commission as was requested, instead they submitted a list of their most prominent candidates and hoped for the best.

PREMIUM ELECTION SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: Why Canadians deserve to hear from Maxime Bernier

I suggested last week that Canadians deserve to hear from Maxime Bernier in this election and the results of a poll of Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley made exclusive to iPolitics supports my position. Last week, I said that the commission should consider whether a close election outcome might place the balance of power in the hands of a few small party leaders, or even in the hands of a single MP, as was the case with the 2005 budget. Whether the commission believes the electoral outcome is likely to produce a minority Parliament or a majority one, close votes can occur in the broader House or at committee that have national significance, regardless.

The poll results in Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley continue to make my point in that regard. This is a race among local political superstars. Liberal incumbent Doug Eyolfson, a former ER physician unseated the then-Conservative MP in a stunning upset in 2015, and he’s now facing a rematch with that former MP, Steven Fletcher, who is running for the People’s Party. The Conservatives are running a star candidate of their own, Marty Morantz, a Winnipeg city councillor.

Regardless of the impact on the Leaders’ Debates Commission’s decision, this race in Manitoba is one to watch in the weeks ahead. It may well be the race that changes the makeup of the debates.

PREMIUM ELECTION SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: Liberal, Conservative candidates in statistical tie in Winnipeg riding: Mainstreet poll

Quito Maggi is the president and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

His columns about the election campaign are exclusively available to subscribers of iPolitics’ Election2019 premium package, which will also include early access to the latest Mainstreet Research polls, as well as substantive political analysis and specialized campaign reporting.

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