I'm not sure what has happened to the Panthers this year, as they have stumbled their way to second-last on the ladder with only two wins from nine matches after starting the season as one of the title favourites. I was one of the experts who tipped them to feature in this year's grand final, basing that assessment on them being so strong last year, talented right across the park, and, unlike previous seasons, possessing great depth.

Halfback Nathan Cleary made a name for himself last year in his rookie season, but it's hard to say he is suffering from second-year syndrome because the whole team has been very ordinary. It's an old rugby league adage that the halves will always struggle behind a beaten pack, and Penrith have some big-name forwards who haven't be performing up to their reputations. Trent Merrin admitted that he was shocked by his call up to the Kangaroos after an ordinary start to the season, while James Tamou may have played well for City on the weekend but he has been largely missing in action for the Panthers.

Penrith Panthers (Photo by Matt Blyth/Getty Images)

Tamou and Merrin may well have played themselves out of their New South Wales jerseys with their club performances this year. Laurie Daley likes to be loyal to his incumbents, but there are plenty of forwards in red-hot form just itching for a run with the Blues. Then there is Matt Moylan. Daley is struggling to find a halves partner for James Maloney, and the role was there for Moylan to lose after playing five-eighth in Game 3 of last year's series. But Daley is also a stickler for discipline, so Moylan's indiscretion earlier in the year won't have helped his cause either.

Players going into State of Origin have to be super confident and have enormous belief in their playing ability. Origin is the biggest, ugliest test of a player's ability to handle pressure under extreme physical and mental fatigue. So a player who is struggling on and off the field for his club just isn't going to be up to the test of running onto Suncorp Stadium for Game 1.

When the leaders of a club are struggling, it often filters through the whole team. There have been reports recently that coach Anthony Griffin has held midnight video sessions. They had senior players suspended earlier in the year for breeching team rules. It is fairly obvious, even to the outside observer, that Penrith are a club who have a share of off field dramas to contend with.

On the field where it really counts, and they are in a massive hole; it's hard to put a finger on why, but the obvious flaw is in their defence. Defence makes up 50 percent of the game, and they are conceding some very soft tries around the middle of the ruck. They showed some signs of missing tackles last year, and it really should have been addressed during the off season. You don't win or compete in this competition if you are not in the top three or four defensive teams.

Matt Moylan (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

They still have plenty of points in them, but they look like they play without any real game plan. They seem to throw the ball around on the first three tackles then look for Bryce Cartwright or Matt Moylan to do something creative; then put in a kick if none of that has worked. There's not a lot of purpose or control in their play.

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This week they take on the inconsistent Warriors at home in a match they simply have to win. They need to find some form against the Warriors and the Knights the following week because they then face the Bulldogs, Raiders and Cowboys. The Panthers need to string together some wins now, because it will be next to impossible to make up enough points at the end of the year; the competition is just too close.

The Warriors have their own distractions to deal with after star half Kieran Foran informed them that he'll be off to the Bulldogs next year. I fully expect them to be a bit of a basket case, and this will be a real test of coach Stephen Kearney's ability to pull them together and regain their focus. I expect nothing but an outstanding performance from Foran himself, but some of his teammates will still be gutted by the move. It should mean the Panthers have their best chance to turn things around; if they don't, they can kiss 2017 goodbye.