The views expressed in this course are the instructor's alone and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, the Intelligence Community, or the Department of Defense.

This course builds on the Level 1 and Level 2 courses on Intelligence Analysis to teach the student how to think in probabilities and structure their analysis to produce predictive intelligence. Upon completion of the course, the graduate will be able to use MS Excel to apply the Bayes Theorem to participate in forecasting tournaments and make specific intelligence predictions to prevent surprise.