

It looks like Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi has won a big victory against Libyan rebels, while NATO defense ministers figure out whether to do anything to help them out militarily.

Ras Lunuf on the eastern coast, home to the country's largest oil refinery, has been very tenuously in rebel hands for a week. No longer. Under what the New York Times calls a "barrage of rocket and attacks and airstrikes," the rebels are starting to leave the area, figuring that the resistance can't hold out much longer.

Rebel anti-aircraft guns – apparently from eastern Libyan military depots – haven't been able to stop Gadhafi's pilots from bombarding Ras Lunuf, and the Times catches the untrained rebels shooting "randomly and ineffectually" while they "cursed the United States and its allies" for not harassing Libyan jets. Gone are the days when Libyan pilots crashed their planes rather than fire on protesters. If Ras Lunuf falls, Gadhafi will have broken through a line of insurgent advancement toward Tripoli stretching back to the rebel capitol of Benghazi. Mideast watcher and friend-of-the-blog Mike Hanna tweets that "mil momentum is clearly shifting."

NATO is flying AWACS surveillance planes near Libya to monitor Gadhafi's fighter jet traffic. But as two days of defense ministerial talks begin, it's far from clear that NATO jets will follow up the spying by attacking Libyan planes or helicopters. The alliance's top civilian, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said Thursday that any military move on Libya would require a "demonstrable need for NATO action," a "clear legal basis" and "firm regional support."

Listening to the rebels, the need is there: they've said they want a no-fly zone. (The Atlantic has a great account of the disorganization amongst anti-Qadhafi volunteers, few of whom have military experience.) As for regional support, the Organization of the Islamic Conference's leadership backs a United Nations-blessed no-fly and rejects foreign ground troops. But Rasmussen's call for a "clear legal basis" for any military campaign probably tethers a no-fly zone to a U.N. mandate, which veto-wielding Russia opposes.

The NATO ministerial isn't yet concluded. But over Twitter, Rasmussen is putting out some preliminary decisions – and they don't seem to back an endorsement of a no-fly zone. He just tweeted, "We have decided to increase the presence of NATO maritime assets in the Central Mediterranean." And Stars & Stripes' Kevin Baron, who's traveling with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, adds that NATO will keep planning for a no-fly if the U.N. authorizes one, "but that's the extent of it." As Ras Lunuf prepares to fall to Gadhafi, it remains to be seen if NATO ships will help the rebels regain their momentum.

Photo: Flickr/AlJazeeraEnglish

See Also:- NATO Places Unblinking Eyes Over Libya, 24-7 | Danger Room | Wired.com