Pyongyang’s tight rein on the flow of intelligence means the outside world knows little about the missing ruler

Kim Jong-un has not been seen in public for more than two weeks, yet the world has few clues as to the North Korean leader’s whereabouts or the state of his health.

Even Donald Trump, arguably the one person outside North Korea who might have been expected to shed light on the mystery surrounding his “friend”, did little to end the speculation on Monday when he claimed to have a “very good idea” about how Kim was faring.

“I can’t tell you exactly,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “Yes, I do have a very good idea, but I can’t talk about it now. I just wish him well.”

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Trump, who has met Kim three times and claims to have developed a personal rapport, suggested that all would be revealed soon. “I hope he’s fine. I do know how he’s doing, relatively speaking. We will see – you’ll probably be hearing in the not too distant future.”

Trump’s ambiguity may have been informed by diplomatic caution or by the simple fact that, like everyone beyond Kim’s inner circle of advisers, he has no idea.

The secrecy that dictates every official pronouncement emanating from North Korea makes it virtually impossible to construct a definitive account of the state of its leadership, including the health of members of the Kim dynasty.

The regime’s control over the flow of information is absolute. While mobile technology has made it impossible to prevent every single morsel of information from reaching the outside world – particularly from areas near the border with China – the most sensitive details are known only to a small number of trusted people until they are disseminated, in highly propagandist terms, by state-controlled media.

Stripped of proper access and insight, observers are forced to parse the wording of official news reports or interpret how a certain political anniversary is marked – and by whom – as well as analysing satellite images in an attempt to build a credible narrative about the regime.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Kim Jong-un with his sister Kim Yo-jong Photograph: AP

The country’s previous leader – and Kim’s father – Kim Jong-il, had been dead for almost two days before confirmation came from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

Even neighbouring South Korea has been unable to create a reliable intelligence network, according to Du Hyeogn-cha, a senior researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.

“It is clear our government has some level of information on the North but not enough to make a confident statement about where he is and whether he’s fully healthy,” said Cha, an ex-intelligence secretary to the former South Korean president Lee Myung-bak.

Kim Jong-un’s absence since 11 April, when he led a party politburo meeting, has generated several theories, including that he is dead or gravely ill, that he is on holiday, or even that he self-isolating from a coronavirus outbreak that the North Korean media continues to insist has not affected the country.

A report by the Daily NK website last week claimed that Kim’s unhealthy lifestyle – he is a heavy smoker with clear weight issues and a family history of heart problems – had caught up with him. The Seoul-based site, which employs North Korean defectors, said Kim, who is believed to be in his mid-30s, had undergone heart surgery on 12 April and was continuing to receive treatment.

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Kim missed celebrations to mark the anniversary of the birth of his grandfather and North founder, Kim Il-sung on 15 April. He had not missed the event, one of the most important in country’s calendar, since assuming power in late 2011.

This weekend, however, satellite images of Kim’s train analysed by 38 North, a monitoring group based in Washington, led some to suggest he was taking time out at his compound in Wonsan, on the country’s east coast.

South Korea’s government has insisted that despite Kim’s absence, it is business as usual in the North. The unification minister, Kim Yeon-chul, told a forum in Seoul on Monday that the South had “enough intelligence” to say with confidence that there were no unusual developments to support the theory that Kim was unwell.

North Korean media, meanwhile, has sought to portray Kim as a leader still in control of state affairs, reporting that in recent days he has sent greetings to the presidents of Syria, Cuba and South Africa.

In addition the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said as recently as Monday that Kim had sent a message thanking workers building tourist facilities in Wonsan, where some believe he is staying.

Crucially, though, none of the reports carried photographs of him.

While the world continues to speculate, North Korea watchers have warned the US, South Korea and other countries in the region to prepare for instability, should the rumours about Kim’s health – and perhaps his death – prove correct.

With no obvious successor in place, even a brief power vacuum could lead to instability, including a potentially huge exodus of North Koreans over the border into China and a struggle among party and military elites for control of the country’s nuclear arsenal.

“Planning for those worst-case scenarios is crucial because nobody knows for sure what’s happening,” said Nam Sung-wook, a North Korea expert at Korea University in Seoul.

“He could very well be OK and reappear in North Korean state media again, but considering his weight and worsening shape the risks linked to his health will sharply increase as he gets older,” added Nam, a former director of a thinktank affiliated with South Korea’s spy agency.