Satisfied With the Way Things Are Going

Satisfied With the Way Things Are Going

In the 365 days since Donald Trump was elected president, the national mood has changed in some important ways. The most important of those changes is simply this: Trump has become less popular, and his political opponents have become more popular.

His unpopularity is now dominating the political scene. Democrats won a wave of victories on Tuesday, many in conservative areas. Congressional Republicans, for their part, are announcing retirements at an unusually rapid clip, fearful that Trump’s standing will drag them down in 2018.

Trump’s approval rating has fallen among supporters of each party. Overall, it fell from 45 percent at the start of his presidency to 38 percent this week, according to Gallup:

President Trump Approval Rating 80% 60 40 20 0 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL Jan. 2017 nov. 2017 JAN. ‘17 NOV. ‘17 jan. ‘17 nov. 17 jan. ‘17 nov. 17 President Trump Approval Rating 80% 60 40 20 0 Jan. 2017 nov. 2017 JAN. ‘17 NOV. ‘17 jan. ‘17 nov. 17 Dem. Rep. Ind. President Trump Approval Rating 80% 60 40 20 0 DemocratS RepublicanS IndependentS OVERALL Jan. 2017 nov. 2017 JAN. ‘17 NOV. ‘17 jan. ‘17 nov. 17 jan. ‘17 nov. 17

Democrats aren’t the only Trump foils who have benefited from his unpopularity. Some of the institutions that have been his targets for withering criticism have become more trusted, too. He has blasted both the legal system and the media, the public has more faith in both than it did a year ago:

Have a ‘Great Deal’ or ‘Quite A Lot’ of Confidence In Institution Newspapers 40% 30 PRE-TRUMP POST-TRUMP 20 10 0 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Television News 30% 20 10 0 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Criminal Justice System 30% 20 10 0 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Have a ‘Great Deal’ or ‘Quite A Lot’ of Confidence In Institution Newspapers 40% 30 PRE-TRUMP POST-TRUMP 20 10 0 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL Television News 30% 20 10 0 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL Criminal Justice System 30% 20 10 0 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL Have a ‘Great Deal’ or ‘Quite A Lot’ of Confidence In Institution Newspapers 40% 30 PRE-TRUMP POST-TRUMP 20 10 0 DemocratS Republicans IndependentS OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Television News 30% 20 10 0 OVERALL DemocratS IndependentS ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Republicans Criminal Justice System 30% 20 10 0 Republicans DemocratS IndependentS OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17

You've probably noticed that there is an exception to the overall trends in those charts above. Self-identified Republicans remain quite happy with Trump (and they're even less happy with the media). That dynamic also has consequences. Republicans who have defied Trump, like Jeff Flake, have generally lost support from the party's base. Flake’s political career seems over because of his criticism of Trump.

Trump's first year has also provided a striking example of the way that partisanship drives other attitudes. Just look at people's attitudes about the economy or crime:

Economic Conditions Are Excellent or Good 40% 20 0 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Economic Conditions Are Excellent or Good 40% 20 0 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Dem. Rep. Ind. TOTAL Economic Conditions Are Excellent or Good 40% 20 0 DemocratS RepublicanS IndependentS OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17

More Crime in Your Area Than a Year Ago 60% 40 20 0 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 More Crime in Your Area Than a Year Ago 60% 40 20 0 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 More Crime in Your Area Than a Year Ago 60% 40 20 0 DemocratS Republicans Independents OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17

Since Trump's victory, Republicans have become more satisfied with the economy and more comfortable with the amount of local crime, while Democrats have become less so. It's almost as if the two groups are living in different countries.

Attitudes on guns have also diverged, although that trend probably has as much to do with recent mass shootings than with Trump. Notably, Republican and independents show no sign of changing their minds about gun control, which helps explain why legislation isn't going anywhere in Congress.

There is at least one area in which Democrats and Republicans seem to agree, though: Both groups say they plan to spend more money during the holidays this year.

Plan to Spend the Same or More on Christmas vs. Last Year 80% 70 60 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Plan to Spend the Same or More on Christmas vs. Last Year 80% 70 60 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 Dem. Rep. Ind. OVERALL Plan to Spend the Same or More on Christmas vs. Last Year 80% 70 60 DemocratS RepublicanS IndependentS OVERALL ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17 ‘16 ‘17

This trend seems particularly worthy of reflection among Democrats who wonder why Republicans allow their partisan views to dictate everything else. In the case of the economy, the Democrats seem to be the ones letting partisanship color reality. How else to explain their newly dark view of the country's economy — as you can see in the chart above — and their willingness to spend more on holiday shopping?