Washington And The World 5 Stats That Explained the World This Week

Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and a global research professor at New York University. You may follow him on Twitter @ianbremmer.

T he right statistic is often worth a thousand words—and sometimes much more than that. These five weekly data points, put together by Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the risk consultancy Eurasia Group, provide a glimpse into global trends, political dangers and international power dynamics. Some are counterintuitive facts. Others are small stats that tell a big story. This week, Ian looks at everything from German investments across the pond to recent elections in Bulgaria and Bolivia.

***


Israel’s Asia trade

Israel is actively expanding its trade ties with Asia’s two most populous countries. Since formally establishing diplomatic relations with China in 1992, Sino-Israeli trade has ballooned 220-fold to reach $11 billion last year. China (including Hong Kong) has become the second biggest destination for Israeli exports, after the United States; Israel’s high-tech exports to China have grown 170 percent since 2008. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said earlier this year, “China is Israel’s largest trading partner in Asia and fast becoming perhaps Israel’s largest trading partner, period.” Netanyahu recently met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New York while in town for the United Nations General Assembly, the first top-level meeting between the countries’ leaders in over a decade. They discussed cyberspace and defense collaboration, as well as expanding an economic relationship that stood at roughly $6 billion last year.

(Foreign Affairs , China-US Focus , Business Standard )

***

Bulgaria’s political instability

Four Bulgarian parliamentary coalitions have crumbled in the last year and a half. After recent elections sent an all-time high of eight political parties into parliament, the political instability seems likely to continue. Voter turnout was roughly 50 percent, the lowest since post-USSR Bulgaria embraced democracy. Bulgaria desperately needs a stable government to solve its entrenched economic woes. The country’s economy is expected to grow a meager 1.5 percent this year. One out of five Bulgarian households lives below the poverty line—the average monthly salary is just $500.

(Economist )

***

Germany’s American investment

German firms are setting their sights on the United States. Germany has previously invested modestly in the United States relative to its size, accounting for only 8 percent of total foreign direct investment in America (good for 7 th place). But that is quickly changing due to America’s relatively affordable labor costs and recovering economy. This year, German companies, including large multinationals like Bayer and Siemens, have spent more than $65 billion on American companies, and six out of 10 German cross-border takeovers worldwide have targeted American firms. Of all foreign bids for American firms this year, one out of five came from Germany.

(Economist)

***

Thailand’s economic woes

Thailand’s economy has been lagging since the coup earlier this year. The central bank predicts 1.5 percent economic growth for 2014, putting the country squarely its Southeast Asian neighbors growing at a much faster clip—Myanmar (over 8 percent), Cambodia and Laos (7 percent) and Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam (5 to 6 percent). Tourism in Thailand is down. Demand for its main exports—computer hard drives and automobiles—is weak. Thai household debt has doubled over the past four years to reach a record high of $306 billion, roughly 80 percent of GDP. The poor might be bearing the brunt of this economic malaise since water shortages (due to insufficient storms during the rainy season) are crippling crop yields, exacerbating the hardships of many of the country’s seven million farming households.

( New York Times )

***

Bolivia’s economic success?

Evo Morales cruised to a third-term as president in Bolivia’s recent elections, garnering more than double the vote tally of his next four rivals combined. Much of Morales’ popularity stems from his effort to transform the country’s natural gas revenues into a higher standard of living for Bolivia’s landlocked population. In 2006, he ordered armed troops to seize many foreign-owned gas fields; in the years since, the economy has averaged 5 percent growth per year, the government has maintained budget surpluses and per capita income has doubled. But the sparkling economy shrouds deep-seated issues. Despite rising substantially, Bolivia’s per capita income remains the lowest in South America. The economy is dangerously one-dimensional: gas exports to Brazil and Argentina account for 45 percent of fiscal revenue. Gas fields’ production could begin to decline as soon as 2017, when experts believe Argentina and Brazil’s rising demand will overtake increased production in new fields

(Bloomberg Businessweek , Washington Post , New York Times )