Half of Republicans think Donald Trump hurt his chances in November during his tumultuous first week as the apparent GOP presidential nominee.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 10 key swing states — which weighed in immediately following this week’s primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.


Republicans who thought Trump dropped the ball pointed to an erratic week — which included shifting positions on key issues, pandering tweets and an interview with The Associated Press in which Trump suggested he would eschew the mechanics of modern politics.

“Let me count the ways” it was a bad week for Trump, said an Iowa Republican. “Cinco de Mayo Taco Bowl. Saying data and analytics don't matter in a national campaign. Twitter fights with Elizabeth Warren. Oh, and questioning need to honor full faith and credit obligations to U.S. debt-holders.”

“Come on,” a Florida Republican added. “His next Hispanic outreach plan involves a Chihuahua from 1998.”

But some thought Trump's attempts at rapprochement with House Speaker Paul Ryan and other establishment Republicans would aid him in unifying the GOP, and saw hints that the GOP was uniting behind Trump despite the nominee’s missteps.

“The effort to fall in and organize behind him is galvanizing,” said an Ohio Republican, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “Perhaps in spite of him, but certainly without any actual effort on his part. And ultimately, that helps him.”

“He is mending fences,” added a Florida Republican, “and more and more stop-Trump folks are accepting it is more important to stop Clinton.”

While Republicans were divided on Trump’s first week, Democrats were more conclusive: 70 percent said Trump mostly hurt his chances since knocking out his opponents.

“He has no self-control,” said a North Carolina Democrat. “Even when he tries to become a serious candidate, he stumbles and relies on the same talking points that make him look like a clown. And his latest, ‘We don't need no stinking data’ claim could result in a loss of epic proportions.”

“He changes his positions on issues faster than it takes me to make a three-minute egg,” added a Wisconsin Democrat.

Three-in-10 Democrats disagreed, and worried openly that despite — or perhaps because of — his sometimes-inflammatory rhetoric, Trump is effectively making the pivot to the general election.

“I know it's crazy,” a New Hampshire Democrat said, “but his flipping around is perceived as ‘moderating’ and as proof that he didn't really mean what he said.”

“As long as he continues to get massive media coverage, his celebrity/populist candidacy is being helped,” a North Carolina Democrat added. “It doesn't matter what he says or does, only that it gets airtime in the media.”



Democrats aren’t sweating Hillary Clinton's losses.

Asked whether Sanders’ recent victories, including a big win in West Virginia on Tuesday, raise concerns about Hillary Clinton’s prospects in the general election, Democratic insiders seemed unconcerned.

Seventy-three percent of Democrats said the Sanders victories don’t have them worried about Clinton, while just 27 percent say the results raise concerns.

Two separate Democratic insiders provided identical responses: “Bernie who?”

“She has clearly moved on and is focusing on the general election as she should,” added a Wisconsin Democrat. “Bernie's wins have not been enough to close the gap significantly enough to matter.”

But other Democrats expressed concern that Clinton has been unable to clinch the nomination, and the fight seems likely to drag on through the end of the primary season in June.

“While the delegate math is still solidly in her favor,” said a New Hampshire Democrat, “the fact that Clinton’s campaign has now gone back to ad spending in the primary suggests a level of anxiety over Sanders' accomplishments.”

“I don't think people are voting for Bernie Sanders,” said a Pennsylvania Democrat. “They are voting against her. And it is apparent there is a real question among Democrats regarding her policy positions and character. The longer this is dragged out, the more difficult it will be to motivate the first-time Bernie voter to realize there are two elections in a cycle.”

“I worry they aren't showing the killer instinct,” added a Florida Democrat. “She needs to put him away.”

Republicans, on the other hand, think Democrats who are unconcerned about Clinton's general election prospects are deluding themselves: 71 percent said Sanders’ victories raise concerns about Clinton’s chances in November, compared to only 29 percent who said Clinton shouldn’t be worried.

“HillaryWorld needs to start asking some pretty probing questions about why they can't shake a 74-year-old wild-eyed socialist and what that portends in going against a 69-year-old madman," said an Iowa Republican.

“[Republican National Committee chairman] Reince [Priebus] wasn't wrong,” added a New Hampshire Republican. “Clinton is losing to a 74-year-old socialist. It doesn't bode well for November.”

One North Carolina Republican downplayed Clinton’s struggles because, he said, “there ain't no way that Bernie folks are gonna go Trump.”

Another Republican looked inward, and saw the GOP as more divided than the Democrats.

“The ‘Never Trump’ Republicans vastly outnumbered the ‘Never Hillary’ Democrats,” said a New Hampshire Republican.

Trump was the key to unity for some Democrats, too. A Colorado Democrat predicted a post-primary coming together as the party rallies to defeat Trump: “Spring divisions in the Democratic Party will be healed by a summer of Trump tweetstorms.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Mark Harris, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.