What a start to the week!

That Sunday evening crash took us down to $6,627 (Bitstamp), which hit a low not seen since 1 April ($6,427). Yesterday evening we saw a further fall to $6,461, only slightly higher than that level. Just about every analyst agrees this is crunch time.

This has been a low-volume fall. The volume on Sunday, when bitcoin plunged $800, was just a fraction of what it was in early February, when over 70,000 BTC changed hands on Bitstamp alone. When volumes are so anaemic, it’s far easier to push the market around and big sells (or buys) make more difference.

And so we find ourselves at a crossroads. The April low represents a Last Chance Saloon for bitcoin. Falling below the current level will expose the $5,920 low of 6 February, and at that point it could drop a lot further. As @NicTrades comments (https://twitter.com/NicTrades/status/1005879454567141377):

‘The 6430 April low is key for Bitcoin. If we trade below it we will bounce but will continue lower to 4300. If we hold above it the bulls have a chance but this is the last line in the sand.’

One of the reasons for the fall could be the recent transfer of a very large number of bitcoins onto an exchange (see https://coinsupdates.com/huge-bitcoin-whale-with-94000-btc-transfers-crypto-onto-an-exchange-rattling-nerves/). Not much is known about this whale, except that he is an Asian trader who accumulated almost 100,000 BTC earlier this year. He’s now starting to unload a few – meaning he is likely selling at a loss. Is his intention to reduce his liability or to manipulate the market for profit? Right now, we don’t know – only that he has a LOT of firepower. You can keep track of his coins at https://blockchain.info/address/1KAt6STtisWMMVo5XGdos9P7DBNNsFfjx7.

So, the next few days are critical for determining the long-term trend for bitcoin. Watch closely, trade carefully or, if you don’t know what to expect, allocate whatever funds you can afford to live without to fiat and BTC respectively and HODL tight. Good luck!

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