Matt Wuerker GOP falling short in midterms

Tepid fundraising, underperforming candidates and a lousy party brand are threatening to deprive House Republicans of the sweeping 2014 gains that some top party officials have been predicting this year.

POLITICO interviewed more than a dozen top strategists from both parties about their outlook for the House in the midterms, and their assessment was nearly unanimous: Republicans are on track to expand their majority by only five or six seats, or roughly half their goal. The conversations covered everything from advertising strategies to fundraising to polling.


A small gain would again leave Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) largely beholden to the tea party wing of the party, with little room to maneuver on a governing agenda.

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With the post-Labor Day homestretch kicking off, the interviews revealed:

* Republicans are convinced they’ll be significantly outspent by Democrats — in contrast to the 2010 midterm elections, when the GOP overwhelmed its opponents with an avalanche of cash.

* GOP strategists are particularly worried about the performance of a handful of candidates who are well-positioned to win but seen as running poor campaigns. Three are mentioned repeatedly: Florida Rep. Steve Southerland, Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry and Virginia House candidate Barbara Comstock.

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* Nearly a year after the government shutdown, Republicans privately say the party’s tattered public image is dragging down candidates in key races.

* Despite the GOP’s troubles, Democrats remain anxious that the political environment could deteriorate still further before Election Day. They say two of their vulnerable incumbents, New Hampshire Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and Illinois Rep. Bill Enyart, may soon be lost causes and are scrambling to prevent that list from growing.

The GOP’s House prospects have fluctuated throughout the election cycle. For much of last year, it was widely assumed Republicans would pick up roughly the half-dozen seats they now look poised to gain, but President Barack Obama’s troubles this year raised hopes among party leaders they could do significantly better than that. As recently as July, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden was quoted as saying Democrats faced a “wave” and were about to get “blown away.”

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From a historic perspective, a five- or six-seat gain would be a disappointment for the GOP. Since 1950, the party out of the White House during the sixth year of a presidency has gained an average of 25 seats. In the most recent midterm election, Republicans swamped Democrats across the country en route to a 63-seat gain.

And it would fall well short of the 11-seat pickup some top Republicans have set as their goal.

The GOP could still achieve its target if the environment for Democrats gets bleaker, strategists from both sides agree. Democrats say two incumbents, Shea-Porter and Enyart, face particularly tough paths to reelection. Additionally, Democrats have all but ceded seats in North Carolina and Utah where incumbents are retiring. They also say it will be difficult to retain an upstate New York seat that Democratic Rep. Bill Owens is vacating.

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But Republicans concede it would take a dramatic shift in the political landscape against Democrats for the GOP to reach 245 seats, up from 234. Leisl Hickey, the NRCC’s executive director, said “the environment is favorable to us right now” but stopped short of predicting a wave. Republicans, she said, have “a great opportunity to expand our majority.”

To a large degree, Republicans are victims of their own success. After the 2010 blowout, Republicans used their vast power in statehouses to redraw congressional lines to lock in their new House majority — potentially until after the 2020 elections. Combined with demographic shifts, the redistricting had the effect of solidifying the chamber’s composition, making the vast majority of seats unattainable for the opposing party. As a result, senior strategists from both parties say they’re closely monitoring only about 40 races this year, the smallest playing field in a decade. Given the limited opportunities, some Republicans argue even a small gain would be reason to celebrate.

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Another problem is self-inflicted: fundraising. Despite having the benefit of the party’s majority status in the House, the NRCC has been outraised by its Democratic counterpart by $27 million. The Democratic cash advantage will play out on TV screens this fall: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has booked $43.5 million for TV ads in 36 districts, while the NRCC has reserved just $30 million in 26 districts, according to party officials.

And the outside groups that played an outsize role in the GOP’s 2010 House takeover aren’t showing up this time around. A Democratic group, House Majority PAC, has announced a $20 million fall TV campaign — a figure that far outpaces any investment plans from an outside Republican group.

GOP strategists have grown increasingly anxious about the cash shortfall. Many of them attribute it to donor fatigue after the disappointing 2012 presidential election and to the intense focus on the battle for the Senate.

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“It’s not a question of if we’ll be outspent,” one Republican strategist said. “It’s a question of by how much.”

Much of the consternation surrounds the Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside group founded by Boehner allies after the 2010 takeover to protect the GOP majority. It has yet to reserve any TV airtime this fall — an indication, some say, that the group’s funding is badly lagging.

Brian Walsh, a former NRCC political director who heads up Congressional Leadership Fund, declined to say how much money the organization would spend but acknowledged that fundraising had become a serious concern for the GOP.

“The 2014 race for the House is shaping up to be a fight between Democrat money and a Republican environment,” he said. “The battlefield, solid candidates and a strong political environment have the makings for what could be a very good year for House Republicans, but the current cash deficit is substantial and impacts our ability to maximize the environment and win seats for future cycles. We’d always rather have a wind at our backs than a cash advantage, but this deficit is a real problem.”

Walsh said donors haven’t recognized the urgency of investing in the House ahead of what is certain to be a more difficult 2016, focusing instead on “the short-term prize of winning the Senate.” As a result, he said, Republicans will face tough decisions about what House races they could invest in.

The NRCC has also struggled to collect cash from GOP members who are responsible for paying “dues” to the national party. When lawmakers return to Washington next week, the committee will launch a final push to collect funds before the election, offering incentives for members to pony up. On Sept. 17, members who’ve paid their dues in full will be treated to a lunch hosted by House GOP leaders at The Source, a posh Wolfgang Puck restaurant in downtown Washington. That evening, members are invited to a committee-hosted dinner at Nationals Park.

Republicans also complain that some of their candidates in critical races are waging less than stellar campaigns. In 2010, a host of Republicans who waged mediocre campaigns still won because the environment was so favorable to the GOP. This time, Republican strategists say, candidates will need to step up their game.

“Campaigns will matter,” said Brock McCleary, a former top NRCC official. “This isn’t 2010. The bad ones will lose.”

Many are worried about Southerland, who’s trying to beat back a ferocious challenge from Democrat Gwen Graham, the daughter of ex-Florida Sen. Bob Graham. Southerland has raised less campaign money than his opponent — typically an ominous sign for an incumbent — and his first TV ad was panned by strategists as awkward and ineffective.

There is also concern about Terry, an eight-term Nebraska congressman with a long history as an underwhelming campaigner. During the government shutdown, Terry apologized after answering “dang straight” when a reporter asked whether he would continue collecting a paycheck, explaining that he had to cover the expenses of a “nice house” and children’s education. In May, Terry barely survived a primary against an obscure challenger.

A Republican group that recently polled the race, and provided POLITICO with its data, found Terry tied with Democratic state Sen. Brad Ashford at 41 percent — distressing for a longtime incumbent.

Others say there is growing consternation over Comstock, the Clinton investigator-turned state legislator who is seeking an open Virginia seat being vacated by a Republican. Privately, some GOP strategists are miffed that Comstock’s political team is composed of some of the operatives who guided ex-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s losing primary campaign.

Operatives from both parties say the GOP’s weak brand, which took a hit after the shutdown and never fully recovered, is weighing down Republicans. In an early August McClatchy-Marist poll, just 22 percent of those surveyed approved of congressional Republicans. While Republicans have linked many Democratic candidates with Obama, the president’s approval rating registers nearly double theirs.

In other words, unlike 2010, when voters directed their anger squarely at Democrats, this year they’re upset with both parties.

Democrats are working aggressively to hitch GOP hopefuls to congressional Republicans. One TV ad that just began airing in a competitive San Diego-area district tells viewers that the Republican candidate, former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio, received political donations “from reckless tea party leaders that shut down the government.”

“I think the Republican Party’s terrible image around the country is a critical reason why 2014 is not shaping up to be a wave election,” said Ali Lapp, House Majority PAC’s executive director. “Look, the country is frustrated, but they don’t see the Republican Party as the answer to their frustrations.”

Republicans aren’t giving up on significantly increasing their 17-seat majority and are seeking out issues that can expand the political map. In some races, they say, that will mean highlighting issues other than Obamacare or the president’s leadership. In Texas, for instance, Republicans believe they’ve gained ground on a Democratic incumbent, Rep. Pete Gallego, by talking about border security. While Obamacare will pop up in campaign ads this fall, Republicans say, it won’t happen as much as it did in 2010 or 2012; instead, they expect the Affordable Care Act to be part of a broader mix of issues used in commercials.

And Democrats say their list of likely casualties could grow. About two-thirds of all the seats most likely to change party hands are currently held by Democrats, many of them locked in fierce battles.

Democrats have gradually narrowed their focus to protecting jeopardized incumbents and are likely to seriously invest in only the dozen or so candidates seen as realistic contenders for Republican-held seats. At the start of the cycle, for instance, national Democrats had been talking up the candidacies of Ann Callis, a former county judge running for an Illinois seat, and Amanda Renteria, a former Capitol Hill aide seeking a California seat. Neither candidate is now seen as likely to win, and neither is receiving as much attention.

That a six-seat loss would be seen as a good outcome for Democrats shows how grim their midterm prospects are. But they say they’re reasonably upbeat about their prospects two months out.

“We track our metrics very closely,” said Kelly Ward, the DCCC’s executive director, “and right now Democrats are overperforming on everything within our control.”