Poll: Clinton faces battle to win Michigan

WASHINGTON – Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is no doubt counting on Michigan being in the Democratic column again in the 2016 presidential race, but with more than half the people in a new poll expressing an unfavorable view of her, that’s not as certain an outcome as it had been.

Clinton, the favorite for the Democratic nomination, has seen her unfavorable rating rise across the U.S. with questions swirling about her use of a private email server during her time at the State Department. And, according to a new poll by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA done exclusively for the Free Press/WXYZ-TV, it’s no different in Michigan.

Some 55% of the 600 likely voters surveyed between last Tuesday and Saturday gave her an unfavorable rating, compared to 32% who viewed her favorably. Meanwhile, in head-to-head matchups with leading Republican candidates, she trailed former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 45%-40% with 15% undecided, and barely led businessman Donald Trump 44%-42% with 14% undecided.

With 15 months to go until the election it’s too early to read too much into head-to-head results. But it’s still a notable turnaround for a candidate who in June led Bush in the same poll 40%-37%, and who counts among her top allies former Gov. Jennifer Granholm, whose Twitter photo shows her standing with the former first lady.

“For a state that is assumed to be a winning state for the Democrats, as it has been for the last several elections, to be trailing Jeb Bush by five points suggests that something is going on,” said EPIC-MRA president Bernie Porn. The poll has a margin of error of plus of minus 4 percentage points.

The only political figure polled with an unfavorable rating higher than Clinton’s was Trump, which was virtually the same at 56%. Political analysts have suggested since he got into the race that Trump, a real estate developer and reality TV star, may be seen too negatively to have a realistic shot at the Republican nomination, despite leading most recent polls.

But Porn said that, in Michigan, Trump isn’t fading -- at least not yet.

“It’s not happening. He’s got a cadre of supporters -- they haven’t faded at all,” said Porn, whose poll did not survey likely Republican voters for their preferred nominees next year. He said in future polls, however, EPIC-MRA will begin adding more Republicans to test potential head-to-head matchups with Clinton.

To be certain, the campaign season is barely under way, with only one Republican debate having been held and the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary four or five months away. But Trump’s entry and rise to the top of the polls, as well as Clinton’s rising unfavorable ratings, underscore how quickly the situation can change.

In recent weeks, Clinton’s unfavorable ratings have been climbing, with polls by CNN, Quinnipiac University and others showing them topping 50% and fueling questions as to her strength as a candidate, even as Vice President Joe Biden weighs whether to enter the race.

Even so, most political experts consider Clinton the presumptive Democratic nominee barring a serious blow considering her fund-raising might, organization, name recognition and polling data, which continues to show her with a sizable lead, nationally, on U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

While Republicans make overtures about capturing Michigan each presidential year, they haven’t been able to do so in more than two decades. The last Republican presidential candidate to win Michigan was Bush’s father, George H.W. Bush, in 1988. And Clinton’s husband Bill beat him in Michigan en route to the White House in 1992, and won the state a second time in 1996 against former Sen. Bob Dole.

In the poll, 62% of white voters gave Clinton unfavorable marks, compared to 47% who did so for Bush and 53% who did so for Trump. Black voters overwhelmingly gave Clinton favorable marks, and Bush and Trump unfavorable ones. But while 62% of men polled gave Clinton an unfavorable rating, 49% of women did so as well -- or about the same percentage as men who gave unfavorable ratings to Bush and to Trump. Sixty-three percent of women gave Trump an unfavorable rating.

Unsurprisingly, most self-described Democrats -- 64% -- gave Clinton a favorable rating. But only 18% of independents did so, while 63% gave her an unfavorable mark. And while Bush got higher favorable ratings than Trump from Republicans, it wasn’t by much: 54% to 52%. Trump’s unfavorable ratings were higher -- 33% to 27% among Republicans -- than Bush’s were, but Trump did better among independents than Bush did, with favorable ratings from 39% compared to 20% for Bush.

In the head-to-head match-ups, however, the difference came down largely to Republican voters: Where 88% say they would prefer Bush to Clinton, far fewer, 77%, would commit to Trump in a race against Clinton, with her gaining 9% of likely GOP voters.

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or at tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.