For those of you who were old enough to worry about the “mighty” Soviet Union in the 70s and 80s, you all lost sleep about nothing. News broke about the story of an ex-KGB analyst turned professor Igor Panarin predicting that the United States will fall apart in 2010. If this is the best that a KGB analyst and current US-Russia relations expert can come up with, they never stood a chance against the US or against anybody, for that matter. And of course, this theory currently has a huge following in Russia, so we can kiss goodbye any fear of Putin being able to turn Russia back to the old Soviet glory.



I don’t want to undermine the wishful thinking of an old dog, but there are gaping holes in his understanding of America. The very map of how he says the United States are going to be split up illustrates that he fails to show even a layman's knowledge of our great nation. Let’s examine his theory and see how likely these are and what could be the consequences.



The most logical of the fragments that Panarin talks about is the “Central North American Republic” that comprises of the Midwest plus Montana, Wyoming and Colorado. This is supposed to be a part of Canada or under Canadian influence even though I cannot fathom a scenario where Kansans would want anything to do with Canadians. However, Illinois would be a solid addition to Canada and Rod Blagojevich has already earned enough political game points with the recent Burris Senate seat pick to get a post in the Cabinet of Stephen “Prorogue” Harper. If it stays as an independent republic, one can easily imagine Obama retaining the Presidency there after coming back to Chicago and bring about hope and change to the new country with a bailed-out Detroit. Also, it would prove to be an easy transition as he can retain Daschle, Vilsack, LaHood, Salazar, Gates and Jones in his Cabinet and not to mention Rahm Emanuel.



The more reasonable prediction is the California Republic which consists of everything west of New Mexico and is supposed to be a part of China or under Chinese influence. One obstacle that could come would be how Mormons in Utah would find fault with Chinese government's ban on unapproved religion and one-child-only policy and may revert to sponsoring a Constitutional Amendment proposition to overcome them. Another serious impediment to such an outcome would be real communists in Berkley find the capitalistic tendencies of the Chinese government unacceptable and may call for a People's revolution. On the other hand, the Chinese government would be really interested in making this land a part of China because it will guarantee a huge revenue stream from the royalties of every Oregon Trail game sold on iPhone App Store. Another thing that I could predict is that Shaq would be traded to Houston for Yao Ming so that Shaq can get away from Kobe once and for all and Yao can return to the homeland.



The prediction takes an ugly turn with the prophecy of Texas Republic purported to be a part of Mexico or under Mexican influence. I have to question the sanity of anyone who suggests such a scenario while leaving Southern California and Arizona out of it. Moreover, to suggest that Mississippi, Alabama or Mike Huckabee would want anything to do with Mexican influence demonstrates yet again a clear ignorance on the part of Panarin when it comes to American political reality. The business repercussions would be far reaching since Tyson wouldn’t be able to supply its chicken to KFC—according to Panarin, Kentucky will be separated from the rest of the South (about that later). So, ruling out being a part of Mexico, the Texas Republic would in time prove to be the most powerful and greatest nation god has ever given to mankind: Huckabee as the president, Chuck Norris as the Secretary of Defense, George W. Bush as the Secretary of State or National Security Advisor and Sean Hannity as Supreme Court Chief Justice.



Coming to the biggest blunder in Panarin's theory, let us inspect his Atlantic America that stretches all the way from Tennessee and the Carolinas to the New England. I cannot comprehend how Tennessee, South Carolina or West Virginia would want anything to do with New York or Massachusetts let alone join the European Union as he suggests. On the other hand, most of Boston and Upper West Side liberals lament the historic mistake of the North winning the civil war and thus having to bear with the Southern states in the union. So, they may not want anything to do with the Carolinas, Kentucky or West Virginia even though they might want to keep Tennessee just for Jack Daniels. New Jersey may become a part of or under the influence of India and may become the hub of call centers, Dunkin Donuts and gas stations.



The last two pieces in the hypothesis are Hawaii and Alaska. Rather than going to the Japanese or Chinese, I predict the former will become the wintertime capital of the Central North American Republic. This would ensure President Obama's eligibility for the presidency, as he will remain a natural-born citizen and could keep the winter vacation schedule without having to go out of the country. I’m not really sure about Panarin's prediction that Alaska will become a part of Russia. As much as he and his fellow countrymen would love for that to happen, I am pretty sure that Todd Palin and his Alaskan Independence Party would get the real American parts of the state to secede away from the Russian Federation and become an independent nation thereby paving way for Sarah Palin to become the president (Finally!).



So if this old KGB guy’s crackpot theory comes true and I have to choose between these divided states, I should make a decision pretty soon. Even though my huge crush on Rachel Maddow compels me to join the Atlantic America, I realize I stand zero chance of getting her because of her sexual orientation. I will gladly take Central North American Republic any day with Obama, Mount Rushmore, Kansas City Barbecue, Ethanol, Yellowstone, Warren Buffet and the makers of Chevy HHR. Also, I would love to get away of the Yankees and all the obnoxious Boston sports teams, and a smaller league would give a better chance for my beloved Cubs to win the World Series. And you cannot go wrong with Miller, Budweiser and Coors all together.