Bullock qualifies for July debate

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Quick Fix

— Montana Gov. Steve Bullock has qualified for the second Democratic presidential primary debate in July — likely triggering a complex set of tiebreakers to determine who will actually appear on stage.


— President Donald Trump is banking on Florida as his reelection efforts officially kicks into gear.

— The Supreme Court punted on a question on racial gerrymandering in Virginia, allowing a redrawn map to stay under procedural grounds instead of issuing a ruling on racial gerrymandering.

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Days until the Mississippi gubernatorial primary election: 48

Days until the NC-03 and NC-09 general elections: 84

Days until the Louisiana gubernatorial primary election: 116

Days until the Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia general elections: 140

Days until the 2020 election: 504

TopLine

THE DEBATE STAGE — Bullock won’t be on stage during the first round of Democratic debates in Miami next week. But he has now qualified for the July debates. By earning 1 percent in a CBS News poll in Iowa released Sunday, Bullock has now crossed the 1-percent mark in three polls, qualifying him for the second round of debates on the last two days of the month in Detroit.

CBS News’ polling is fairly unique: Instead of a national poll or state-specific poll, the network published a “Battleground Tracker poll,” conducted by YouGov, which aggregated polling from 18 “battleground states” that will all vote on the early side of the primary process. In addition to the aggregate polling, the network also published individual polling results in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. All of the polling was conducted entirely online.

The Democratic National Committee confirmed to Score Monday that the individual polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will count toward debate qualification. The rolled-up polling that includes all of the 18 battleground states will not (as always, the DNC does not comment on the individual qualifications for candidates; POLITICO is saying Bullock has qualified based off publicly available polling).

But now, qualifying for the debate stage will no longer guarantee a candidate a podium in July. Bullock is the 21st candidate to qualify for the July debate — and the DNC has said that it will limit the debates to no more than 20 people. This could (eventually) trigger a series of tiebreaker rules, which prioritizes candidates who cross both the polling and donor threshold, followed by candidates who only crossed the polling threshold (sorted by polling average), followed by candidates who only hit the donor threshold (it is impossible to qualify solely through donors for July since more than 20 candidates have hit the polling mark). Right now, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Bullock are effectively tied for the 20th spot, each having identical polling averages — one percent in three qualifying polls. But there is about a month to go before qualification closes for the July, giving plenty of time for more polling.

Two other candidates who have not yet made the July debate stage picked up qualifying polls from the CBS News/YouGov polling. In the South Carolina poll, Miramar, Fla., Mayor Wayne Messam and former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel each got 1 percent. It is Messam’s second qualifying poll, and Gravel’s first.

— Bullock will appear on a pair of locally televised town halls in Iowa and New Hampshire on the days of the debate next week, POLITICO’s Alex Thompson reported.

Presidential Big Board

THE SUNSHINE STATE — Trump is digging in in Florida as he kicks off his official reelection bid with a rally in Orlando later tonight. “With an eye on reelection during his entire first term, Trump’s politics and policies have a Florida-first bias,” POLITICO Florida’s Marc Caputo reported. “Under Trump, the state and national Republican parties are integrated into his campaign, which classifies Florida as an independent region in a nod to its make-or-break importance.”

— American Bridge is meeting Trump in Orlando with a digital radio ad sharply criticizing Trump over family separation.

A WHOLE NEW BALLGAME — Gone are the days where Democrats can rely on a strong ground game in just early states. “The 2020 Democratic primary is taking place online and in the national media as much as it is on the ground, leaving some candidates behind while others thrive in the new paradigm,” NBC News’ Alex Seitz-Wald wrote.

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A new poll from The University of Texas/Texas Tribune in the Lonestar State has Joe Biden leading the field (the poll was conducted online). The former vice president has 23 percent to Beto O’Rourke’s 15 percent, Elizabeth Warren’s 14 percent and Bernie Sanders’ 12 percent. Pete Buttigieg has 8 percent, and Kamala Harris has 5 percent. Julián Castro and Tulsi Gabbard are each at 3 percent, the last candidates polling above 1 percent (483 Democratic primary voters, May 31-June 9).

— This week's update from Morning Consult's 2020 Democratic primary tracking poll (June 10-16, 17,226 Democratic voters, +/- 1 percentage point): Biden, 38 percent (+1 from last week); Sanders, 19 percent (unchanged); Warren, 11 percent (unchanged); Harris, 7 percent (unchanged); Buttigieg, 7 percent (unchanged); O'Rourke, 4 percent (unchanged); Cory Booker, 3 percent (unchanged).

DEMS IN DISARRAY? — Democratic lawmakers are not particularly enthused with how the DNC has been running the primary process so far, including the debate rules. “Against that backdrop, a collection of Democratic lawmakers are still aggravated with [DNC chief Tom] Perez after he yielded to the party’s base last year and agreed to dilute their power as superdelegates — a problem Perez is still trying to defuse in private meetings with Democrats,” POLITICO’s Burgess Everett and Heather Caygle reported. The DNC defended both the superdelegate changes and debate criteria, and other lawmakers backed Perez’s management of a difficult process.

AD WARS — And speaking of debates (and let’s be honest, when am I not?): 2020 Democratic hopefuls are already turning their attention to the fall, with several posting Facebook ads explicitly fundraising to hit the 130,000 threshold. Pros can read more in my weekly roundup.

POLICY PRIMARY — Swalwell released a plan on how he’d tackle gun violence, POLITICO’s Sarah Cammarata reported.

— Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s climate-first campaign was profiled by the Los Angeles Times’ Matt Pearce.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — CA-16’s Democratic Rep. Jim Costa backed Harris, per The Fresno Bee’s Brianna Calix (here’s our endorsement tracker).

Down the Ballot

THE MAP LINES — The Supreme Court largely punted on a case involving racial gerrymandering in Virginia. The high court “turned aside a challenge from Virginia state House Republicans in a closely watched racial gerrymandering case, leaving in place a map that gives Democrats a good shot at taking back the chamber this November,” Campaign Pro’s Steve Shepard wrote. “The GOP-controlled state House appealed to the Supreme Court to halt the new map, but the justices ruled, 5-4, that the state House lacked standing to bring the appeal.”

This also means that last week’s General Assembly primaries won’t have to be redone. More from Steve: “The new map redrew a number of seats in the Hampton Roads area of Southeast Virginia. Under the new lines, five of the nine GOP state delegates who saw their districts shift now hold seats Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 presidential election. Meanwhile, of the 16 Democrats whose districts changed, all hold seats that Clinton carried.” And don’t forget about the two outstanding cases on partisan gerrymandering before the court. They’re expected to be decided in the next two weeks.

THE SENATE MAP — Democrat Eric Mansfield, a former North Carolina state senator and veteran, announced he was running for Senate on Tuesday, Campaign Pro’s James Arkin reported. “Mansfield had been widely expected to run after announcing an exploratory committee in April. In an official announcement video, shared first with POLITICO, Mansfield highlighted his background as a surgeon, veteran and pastor, and his survival last year of a car accident after his heart stopped while he was behind the wheel.”

This comes after Democrat Cal Cunningham announced he was running for the Senate in North Carolina on Monday after he filed with the FEC Sunday, per James.

— Americans for Prosperity Action said it’d back Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in his reelection bid in a memo and Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) in an op-ed in The Colorado Sun.

THE HOUSE MAP — Montana state Auditor Matt Rosendale, a Republican, announced he’ll run for Montana’s at-large House seat, per KECI. Rosendale quickly picked up an endorsement from Club for Growth PAC (recall that the group sunk over $4.7 million into his ultimately-failed bid against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2018).

— Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), a Frontline Democrat from CA-45, said in a video that she now supported “an impeachment investigation” of Trump. She joins Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) as battleground Democrats who back impeachment hearings.

— Utah state Sen. Dan McCay, a Republican, is passing on challenging Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams in UT-04, per Utah Policy’s Bryan Schott.

— Former Florida GOP Rep. Allen West said he’d make an announcement about his “political future” on July 3. National Journal’s Ally Mutnick reported that West is eyeing running in TX-32 earlier this month.

CODA — REAL ESTATE LISTING OF THE DAY: “Condo where Bob Woodward left messages for Deep Throat during Watergate lists for $349,000” — From The Washington Post.

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