Baseball Prospectus has released it’s PECOTA projections for this year. They figure the Jays to finish 82-80, good for third in the AL East, 8 games back of the Red Sox and 2 back of the Rays. The Yankees project to be 1 game back of the Jays and the Orioles 10 games back, at 72-90.

I like USA Today’s Projections better, in them we finish 2nd in the AL East at 87-75, 7 games back of the Red Sox, but still getting the second Wild Card spot.

Anyway, PECOTA projects each player’s stats for the season. Some of interest:

Random stuff:

It has A.J. Jimenez as our backup catcher, playing 15% of the games. That likely won’t happen.

Rowdy Tellez gets in 8 games.

Ryan Goins (playing 35% of our games) gets most playing time than Darwin Barney (playing 20% of our games. I’d bet against that.

The bullpen, beyond Osuna, doesn’t project to be very good. Osuna is the only member with an ERA better than 3.95.

Non-Blue Jays projections:

It picks the Astros to be the best team in the AL, finishing 93-69. Astros, Red Sox and Indians would be division winners, Mariners and Rangers would take the Wild Card spots.

Royals would be the worst team in the AL, at 71-91, one game worse than the Orioles.

Mets, Cubs and Dodgers win the NL divisions. Nationals and Giants get the Wild Card spots.

Go take a look at the projections and let us know what you think.