The running back by committee trend continues to spread throughout the NFL and fantasy owners are left with more and more difficult decisions when their fantasy draft day arrives. The Cincinnati Bengals seem poised to follow suit and employ a two-back system utilizing second-year pro Jeremy Hill and former feature back Giovani Bernard.

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Most fantasy experts agree that the first Bengal RB to target is Hill, and a brief glance at last year’s stats make it difficult to argue. Hill rushed for 1,124 yards and 9 TDs while recording a 5.1 YPC average. The majority of Hill’s performance was accomplished over the second half of the season after a hip injury to Bernard opened the door to an increased workload.

A closer look at Hill’s 2014 campaign combined with 2015’s outlook suggests fantasy owners may need to pump the brakes on Hill’s potential. There were four games in which Hill went over 100 yards on the ground. Three of those games were against the first (Browns), fourth (Saints), and sixth (Jags) worst rush defenses of the 2014 season. In 2015, the Bengals have the worst strength of schedule (SOS) for fantasy running backs compared to the 11th easiest in 2014. Hill’s other game over 100 yards came against Denver when he rushed for 147 yards on 22 carries. But one of those carries covered 85 yards. Remove that scamper from the stat line, and Hill only rushed for 62 yards on 21 carries, a meager 2.95 YPC.

Hill also was almost non-existent in the passing game over the second half of 2014, totaling only 13 receptions and zero TDs in the final eight games, diminishing his value in PPR leagues even more.

Bernard missed two games mid-season due to injury but came back for the final six contests of 2014. In those games Bernard amassed 404 total yards and two TDs on 80 touches, a respectable average of 13.33 touches per game compared to Hill’s average of 20 touches per game. But recently Hill stated that he expects the Bengals will utilize a balanced attack in 2015 while taking advantage of the different skill sets of each Bengal runner.

Hill’s ADP currently sits at 20 overall in both standard and PPR leagues which puts him ahead of solid WR options in Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans and Randal Cobb. Bernard’s ADP falls at 67 overall in standard leagues and 53 overall in PPR allowing fantasy owners to draft lower risk options in the earlier rounds while still providing value in the middle rounds.

Selecting Hill in any format will require confidence that the Bengals will stay committed to the running game despite their tough schedule and that he will see the bulk of the carries. Hill will not have the luxury of facing several of the league’s worst run defenses as he did last year and it is likely the Bengals will be forced to throw the ball more as they face some of the league’s toughest run defenses. Bernard provides much better value with his later round ADP, particularly in PPR formats where he looks to build on his 43 receptions in 14 games last year. Fantasy owners should look to lock up one of the much more dependable WR options available near Hill’s second-round ADP and consider true feature backs like Jonathan Stewart (49 ADP) of Carolina or Andre Ellington (54 ADP) of Arizona who offer better value with their mid-round ADP in standard and PPR formats.

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Bobby Bunch is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Bobby, check out his archive and follow him @bobby_bunch.

