It’s no wonder the Red Sox haven’t given up on Jackie Bradley Jr. yet. The young center fielder has wowed fans and players alike with his spectacular defense, but only managed a slash line of .196/.268/.280 through 164 Major League games. In Spring Training, however, something clicks. Maybe it’s the weather. Or maybe it’s the water. It might even be his motivation. Who knows?

After a dominant Spring Training in 2013, Bradley looked like the easy heir apparent to incumbent center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury. After being handed the starting job last spring (despite only hitting .158 in Spring Training – let’s ignore that), Bradley floundered to a tune of a .531 OPS before losing his job to Sox phenom Mookie Betts. This Spring looked like more of the same for JBJ. Again hitting over .370, Bradley looked like a force to be reckoned with in Sox camp, but ultimately has no place in the Red Sox crowded outfield.

So the question remains, did Bradley make real strides this Spring? Or is this another blip in the radar of a career destined for mediocrity?

Root of the Problem

With a combination of speed and superb athleticism, Bradley profiles as the prototypical leadoff hitter any team would want manning center field – but that’s not Bradley’s problem. JBJ quickly established himself as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game last year, even garnering Gold Glove consideration. Early this Spring, Red Sox manager John Farrell went as far as saying, ““In my mind, he’s the best [defensive] center fielder in baseball. And I’m not afraid of saying that.”

Case in point.

If the game was based off of defense alone, Jackie Bradley Jr. would be in the MVP conversation. Unfortunately for JBJ, that’s not how baseball works – although defense isn’t completely forgotten.

Bradley’s problem lies in his ability to make consistent contact with the ball, which is something far too familiar to hopeful baseball players across the world. JBJ had been consistently dominant in college and through all levels of the minor leagues, so his struggles at the majors may be all mental. The South Carolina product looked like a man on a mission in Spring Training 2013, and even looked solid in his first Major League game – walking an impressive three times against the Yankees.

Then everything fell apart. Bradley stumbled his way to a .097 average (3 for 31), and then improved to hit .238 in his second stint with the big league club. It’s usually not a good thing to rush a player past Triple-A (note the Red Sox reluctance to start the season with Blake Swihart as the everyday catcher). Triple-A is home to many former major leaguers and solid veterans – the perfect place to test a player’s confidence and ability.

Bradley eventually went to Triple-A in 2013, and managed to hit a solid .275/.374/.469 in 320 at-bats. Something has to give.

Ever since struggling early in his career with the Sox, Bradley has been adjusting his swing in hopes of finding something that would stick. This Spring, Red Sox assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez has focused Bradley on hitting low, to reduce swings and misses on high fastballs – a major problem throughout Bradley’s career. The idea is that Bradley can return to his early 2013 form where he showed great discipline and the ability to make contact with most hittable pitches.

Joon Lee of Overthemonster.com excellently analyzed the progression of Bradley’s swing throughout his two seasons and found that Bradley had added a minor leg kick, and shifted the position of his hips to a more closed position – which greatly reduced his bat speed and ability to make contact.

While Bradley’s defense warrants high praise, his offense has been lacking for all of his Major League career – but with improvements made this offseason and less pressure by starting the year in Triple-A, it looks as if Bradley can return to his status as defensive whiz with a great combination of speed and ability to make contact.

Improvements

This offseason, Bradley’s swing has been altered to mirror not only teammate Dustin Pedroia – but also his own stance from early 2013. By doing this, Rodriguez hopes Bradley will stop swinging at unhittable pitches, but also give the young center fielder his confidence back.

For the first time in two seasons, JBJ will begin the season in the minor leagues without the added pressure of being a “top prospect”. In 2015, Bradley can reestablish himself as the .290 hitter he’s been over the course of his career in the minors and allow him to adjust to his new swing – which will take some getting used to. Over the past two seasons in the majors, Bradley needed to continually make adjustments, but was never able to get in a solid groove with one swing.

While his ability to make contact basically disappeared last season, Bradley’s plate discipline took a hit as well. Not hitting well consistently causes many players to force at-bats and swing at bad pitches. JBJ’s plate discipline in 2014 was a far cry from the player who walked three times on Opening Day against the Yankees. Bradley walked a paltry 31 times last season, while striking out 121 times(!!).

Back in 2012, when Bradley was establishing himself as a top prospect and had no taste of Major League action, Bradley managed to walk a respectable 87 times, while striking out only 89 times. Returning to those numbers would qualify Bradley as a solid contributor at the Major League level. In order to return to those numbers, Bradley will have to adjust to his new swing, which in turn will improve his confidence, which will then, hopefully, lead to improved plate discipline.

Bradley has a lot to prove in Triple-A in 2015, but with a revamped swing and hopefully more confidence, can establish himself as a Major League caliber player – although maybe not for the Red Sox.

Future

Even if Bradley struggles to establish himself as a leadoff hitter, simply improving his batting average to around the .240 range would warrant a spot on a major league roster because of his spectacular defense in center field. With the Red Sox loaded outfield, Bradley and the $72.5 million dollar man Rusney Castillo were sent to Triple-A shortly before the start of the season.

The Sox outfield, as it currently stands, features Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, Allen Craig, and Brock Holt all vying for time at the Major League roster. In the minors, things don’t get any easier. Rusney Castillo figures to be called up sooner rather than later, perhaps to replace an injured Victorino, and below him on the depth chart are Bradley, Bryce Brentz, and possibly Garin Cecchini (as he is blocked by Pablo Sandoval at third base).

In order for Bradley to see time with the 2015 Red Sox, he’ll need to first reestablish himself as a quality hitter, but also hope for some roster changes. If Shane Victorino gets injured again, it’ll be Rusney Castillo who takes over for him in right field – which puts Bradley next in line for a call-up. With an Allen Craig trade looming, and still assuming Victorino is injured, Bradley would then most likely see time in the majors – albeit in a bench role.

Another likely scenario is that the Sox make a trade at some point in the season, and throw in JBJ as a sweetener (although it may be sour if he proves incapable of hitting). Back in February, the Atlanta Braves publicly stated they were interested in trading for Bradley. As a rebuilding team, the Braves make sense – but unless the Braves are willing to part with Julio Teheran or Shelby Miller, it’s unlikely the Sox would make a deal with them. The most likely trade scenario lies in the Sox pursuit of an ace, where Bradley is the third or fourth player included in the deal.

However, with minor league options remaining, the Sox have no reason to trade Bradley in 2015. The potential that Bradley can reestablish himself as a quality major leaguer is enough to entice the Sox to hold onto him and build up his trade value – or, worst case scenario (for Bradley, at least), keep him around as outfield depth who can play outstanding defense and pinch-run.