Tommy and I will be discussing solutions in the days to come. But first, I want to dwell for a moment on the mess that we have.

I once heard the CEO of a major company tell the following story. His first job was as an engineer at a defense firm, and he was assigned to a team that was designing the guidance system for a long-range missile. After a ton of work, they took the missile to the desert and tested it. Bang, the missile hit the target exactly. A perfect hit. There was much celebration.

They then moved on to the next phase of development, another component to the missile, and added that on. This time, the missile missed the target. Literally by miles. Only then, following the disastrous test, did they go back and really look a the test data from the first launch. The guidance system had been a total failure then too, and it was sheer luck that they had hit the initial target.

The lesson from that story is clear: we are easily misled by the end result. Long term success requires being as critical of apparent successes as you will be of apparent losses.

As we go through the rubble of this epic disaster of a season, there is a great deal of evidence that this team’s figurative guidance system has been broken for some time. More bluntly, the team’s front office philosophy and personnel appear to be fundamentally flawed. And when we think about how to fix this franchise, it is the front office that needs the most immediate attention. Even before we think about what the implications are for the coaching staff.

This isn’t the first time I’ve ranted about this particular subject. There are a lot of difficult questions to answer. But to help us identify the magnitude of the problem, let’s catalog some flaws that have been long-standing — flaws that are immune to the “it is just one bad year” line of thinking.

Cutting Corners. This has been a team flaw for years. And it is inexcusable. The Eagles are notorious for strategically ignoring positions. The list is exhausting. In 2008, it was fullback. In 2009, it was free safety. In 2010, it was right cornerback and right guard. In 2011, it has been linebacker. I could go back earlier as well, but it isn’t worth it. Every year, there seems to be at least one position where the team inexplicably just hopes things work out. And every year, it doesn’t work and in fact winds up hurting us pretty badly. If we were really worried about salary cap constraints, I would understand; you can’t have anything. But we had tens of millions of dollars worth of cap space in every year but this one. This is a systematic problem. If you can get everything right, you do so. You don’t intentionally make your team weaker.

Injury Risk. I don’t think I need to dwell too long here. The team counts on players coming off of injuries too frequently and gets burned too often. From signing Stacy Andrews and steve smith to drafting Cornelius Ingram and Jack Ikegwuonu to counting on Stewart Bradley and Nate Allen, someone is not doing their job and honestly assessing the medical risk of players coming off of injury for this team. And it costs us on the field and financially. Big time.

Self Scouting Failures. More than cutting corners, the thing that shouldn’t happen but does with alarming frequency is failing to properly assess the ability of players who are on your team already. The team thought Quintin Demps could succeed Dawk in 2009. Not even close. In 2010, they thought that Ellis Hobbs and Stacy Andrews, veterans who couldn’t get off the Eagles’ bench the year before, could start at CB and RG, and paid a lot of money to let them do so. Fail. They thought they had LBs capable of starting in the NFL in 2011 in Moise Fokou and Jamar Chaney. That has not worked out at all.

In all of those cases, we are talking about players who the coaches and the team’s front office saw day in and day out. There is nobody in the whole league that you have studied more than your own players. There is no way you can justify missing so badly on your own guys.

Wasted Defensive Drafts. One of the scariest realities is that in 2013 — just two seasons away — there is nobody on the entire defense who we can point to and say, “I know that barring injury, that guy will be an above average NFL starter.” You can do that on offense, for sure. DeSean Jackson, Maclin, McCoy, even Peters and Herremans because of how long OL are usually able to play at a high level. If you were generous, you’d throw in Celek and Vick, though both clearly have their issues, and maybe even Kelce, who should keep getting better if we keep this OL system in place that long.

But on defense? Our best talents, Trent Cole, Asante Samuel, and Nnamdi Asomugha, will all be on the wrong side of 30, when age can jump up and bite them. Babin and Jenkins are already on the wrong side of 30, and looking forward, the chances of them being good decline sharply with each passing year. DRC is a free agent after 2012, so even if he is actually better than he looked this year, it is hard to count on him being here. In fact, if I had to place actual money on one player on defense being here and playing well, barring injury, do you know who it would be? It would be Mike Patterson, who would turn 30 during that season. Think about that for a moment. For every other player on defense, I’m less sure that he is going to be starting the NFL in 2013 barring injury, let alone being above average.

But that isn’t what is scary. What is scary is that only two of the names I’ve listed on defense so far were drafted by the Eagles. Why? A succession of defensive drafts that have left the team without young, ascending talent. A quick count shows 25 defensive players drafted between 2006 and 2010. Only 8 of those guys are still with the team, 5 of whom were drafted in 2010. The other three (Trevor Laws, Victor Abiamiri, and Moise Fokou) represent the remaining defensive haul. And none of those three guys seem too likely to be on the team in 2012 (two free agents and, well, Fokou).

They’ve done far better on offense. From 2006-2010, 22 offensive players were taken, and 10 of those guys are still with the team, including 3 taken in 2010 and 7 taken in prior years. Three of those seven guys are now on their second contracts (Avant, Justice, and Celek) and three more are among the team’s best players (DeSean Jackson, Maclin and McCoy).

Now, let’s place a little blame for this where it is due. There are five defenders (Chris Gocong, Stewart Bradley, Joe Mays, Andy Studebaker, and Brodrick Bunkley) who have moved on and are either starters or significant contributors to their team (or are Stewart Bradley). Those guys are gone because either they weren’t developed well here, were drafted into a system that subsequently changed and they were no longer fits, or have never been the same since an ACL tear. The latter could also be said for Brandon Graham and Nate Allen. So there is bad luck and changing defensive schemes that are partially to blame. That said … when right now, the best player on that list is probably Chris Gocong … it is hard to argue with credibility that our defensive drafting has been adequate.

Talent Retention. One of the hallmarks of Joe Banner’s tenure has been that the team has identified its top young talent and signed players to long term contract extensions before they hit free agency. The franchise kept the vast majority of its best players for their most productive years, from when they were drafted until they hit the wrong side of 30.

That philosophy has disappeared in recent years. In 2006, we extended a number of young players that we had drafted and developed (Trent Cole, Mike Patterson, Todd Herremans, Jamaal Jackson, Reggie Brown, and Shawn Andrews). However, between 2007 and 2011, we have extended just two guys that we’ve drafted: Brent Celek and Winston Justice. (You could include Kolb’s one-year extension, but it seems to miss the point, especially since I’m talking about long term extensions; I also exclude Vick because he was on the franchise tag, which is not really an early extension as much as free agent negotiations with leverage. We’ve also extended, um, Jon Dorenbos. Yawn.) Part of that is a product of rules in the past two CBAs that have limited the ability to extend guys. But a larger part of that is that we aren’t getting deals done anymore.

Why not? Well in part it’s tied to drafting, as I discussed. But in part, it is a failure to deal. And I’m not talking about just DeSean Jackson. There is nothing keeping us from extending LeSean McCoy, as far as I know. There is nothing keeping us from extending Jeremy Maclin. And prior to his injury, Antonio Dixon. Yes, the list of candidates is short. But that makes the failure to extend these guys even more puzzling: there just aren’t that many guys worth extending. Who exactly are they saving the money for?

Leadership. I will admit up front that this is more wishy-washy. I’m going to start in with hyperbole. I hate myself for it, but can’t resist. So, with that caveat:

There used to be guys who represented how the Eagles did things; they played the right way and had little patience for guys who played any other way. At one firm I worked for, we called those guys “culture carriers” and they were considered to be very valuable. The Eagles have ignored that value, and it has cost them. Brian Dawkins was allowed to leave because we wouldn’t commit to him for two years. Or he might have been overpaid by a couple million (aka steve smith money). Either way, gotta draw that line because his play might not be worth it. Sheldon Brown, nope, can’t give him a raise because he might decline. Nobody wants a CB who plays his heart out. Quintin Mikell, see ya. I understand, those guys aren’t going to play as well as their contracts anymore. They are old, declining. But anyone think they would be as despondent as the defensive players we have now?

Maybe the formula for worth is missing a variable, is all I’m saying. But because we didn’t retain those guys, and because we didn’t do a good job drafting defensive players to succeed them, our defense is a terrifying combination of inexperience and free agents. Of the 29 guys on defense, just 9 are in at least their third year in Philadelphia, which includes three guys on IR (Dixon, Abiamiri, and Fokou). Only four are starters: Trent Cole, Mike Patterson, Akeem Jordan, and Asante Samuel. The only one of those guys who seems to have any leadership skills is Samuel, and he seems to be happy to lead the team in the worst possible direction.

To counter this, the team drafted guys who are “high character” and self-motivated, guys who were team captains and high-motor players. That hasn’t seemed to help much. Collectively, this team sure doesn’t play like a high-motor, self-motivated bunch. Leadership is a difficult quality to bring to a new team, whether it is from college or another NFL team. So much of it is situational, based on long-standing relationships and standing within the team. Which is why it is so important to value it when it exists on your team. Again, see Dawk, Brown, and Mikell.

Assistant Coaching Failures. Until 2009, the Eagles under Andy Reid had never fired a real assistant coach that I am aware of. Since then, they have fired (or “allowed to leave”) a slew of them. From Otis Smith to Ted Daisher and Brian Stewart to Sean McDermott, Rory Segrest, James Urban and Bill Shuey, there have been more coaching missteps than we can count. And surely there will be more to come following 2011 even if Reid is retained.

Reid has suddenly developed a problem in terms of identifying and hiring quality coaches. And even when he picks experienced hands, they seem to struggle. Jim Washburn’s and Marty Mornhinweg’s tussle was most appalling for that reason: veteran coaches who can’t seem to show professional respect for each other. Experienced secondary coaches Brian Stewart, Dick Jauron, and Johnnie Lynn have been disappointments to say the least; Stewart was shown the door and Jauron wasn’t good enough to beat out Juan Castillo for the DC job. Lynn’s experience as DC in New York hasn’t helped Castillo, and he doesn’t seem to have helped the CBs play effectively. [By the way I still don’t understand why Jauron isn’t the DC with Castillo as LBs coach. If you want Castillo to take his talents to the other side of the ball, that’s the most rational answer, right? Not saying Jauron is a guru or anything, but compared with Castillo …]

On-Field Coaching Failures. And now the lowest hanging fruit of them all. Reid has struggled for years on game day. I think my current view of him is still that he is the best offensive coach in the league from the moment the last game ends to the moment the next game begins. He comes up with good game plans, creates mismatches, keeps his players practicing and playing at a high level throughout the year, and has strong relationships with difficult personalities on the team. He protects his players as well as any coach in the league.

But during the game, he’s a mess. The wasted time outs. The frequent failures to adjust on the fly. The sideline confusion. The lack of situational awareness. The hated run-pass balance. It’s been equally maddening for 13 years.

He also has shown no ability to improve the defense. He couldn’t help McDermott enough to keep the defense on track. He can’t help make Castillo better. So he seems great on offense but useless on defense. He requires a defensive head coach to be teamed with him, like Jim Johnson was. There’s no shame in that; not everyone can be Bill Belichick. But most coaches are aware of their short comings. Andy Reid does not appear to be aware of this. Or at least, he wasn’t prior to this season.

This season, even some of the strengths are eroding. Players are taking advantage of Reid’s protection rather than using it to take the time to get better. Players don’t seem to be a whit more motivated by Reid than they otherwise would be willing to be. But this seems to me to be the effect of things snowballing. I don’t necessarily consider these to be the long-standing flaws, though they factor into any ultimate decision.

Conclusion. My point here is that there has been a lot going on with this team for a long time that was not working. It was masked by success, but that doesn’t mean that it wasn’t a problem. These problems have a way of building and exploding. And I’m sure I missed several others.

These problems are not one year issues, or just bad luck. They represent long-term, systematic flaws in the Eagles organization. And they require a significant intervention in terms of the organizational philosophy and decision making process in order to correct.

As I said two months ago, Mr. Lurie has a really big job in front of him. And in truth, he now has just five weeks to figure out how to fix it. I don’t think the answer can be merely “fire Andy” though. Too much needs to be rethought.

My biggest concern is that, faced with such a difficult problem, Mr. Lurie will punt and take one of the easy ways out, and limit his decision to the head coaching job. Such action — or, more accurately, inaction — is clearly insufficient.