Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Primary:

“First they needed some high-profile endorsements,” said the CIO. “Then they needed to win a couple early primaries,” he continued. “Only then could they raise the big corporate money to fund a campaign.” Few candidates could make it, they’d drop out early, narrowing the field by the end of March. “Now candidates raise money online. And the timeline has accelerated so that 70% of delegates are allocated by March 31, whereas previously it was only 35-40% by then. This will transform the Democratic primary process in ways few people yet understand.”

“If a candidate gets above 15% of the vote in a state primary, they receive their proportional share of that state’s delegates,” explained the same CIO. “In the past, that was fine because the field narrowed early. But we’re likely to see four candidates make it all the way to the convention in July.” Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders. “It’s highly unlikely anyone will win 50% of the delegates.” So candidates will transfer delegates to the contender of their choice, and that will determine the winner. “This will be America’s first parliamentary-style nomination.”

"We’ll head into the July convention with two voting blocks,” he said. Warren and Bernie (Progressive). Biden and Buttigieg (Moderate). “It will create a lot of uncertainty as to who will prevail, and some people will think this will benefit Trump. But he is an extremely weak candidate.” Trump lost the 2016 popular vote and were it not for 77k voters spread across Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, he would have lost the Electoral College. “He’s tripling down on a strategy to bring out his base, but there aren’t many ageing, white, rural males left.”

“If 3rd party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson hadn’t run, Hillary would’ve won,” said the CIO. “And that was with the lowest Black voter turnout since John Kerry ran. That low turnout won’t repeat.” And the youth turnout will be massive this election. “What investors largely fail to appreciate is that it is extremely difficult for the Democrats to lose this election. And not only that, but the whole process will be the messiest primary America has seen in at least 70yrs, with the final Democratic candidate likely to be uncertain until the very end.”



“Progressives are still very angry about how Hillary and the DNC treated Bernie in 2016,” he said. “If Biden somehow gets the nomination this time, the Progressives will go berserk. It’ll be the last election that they lose for a very long time.” Trends in the US toward the Progressive agenda are well entrenched, their strength and numbers will continue to rise. “If Trump then wins the general election, the Progressives will go full metal jacket. They’ll go hard left, the Republicans will go hard right, authoritarian. America’s polarization will be complete.”