Shell-shocked Democrats looking to recover from 2016 see the large slate of upcoming governors races as their most likely path out of the political wilderness — starting in the Midwest.

Twenty-seven of the 38 governorships up in 2017 and 2018 are Republican-held, including many seats that will be open after eight years of GOP control. That means widespread opportunities for Democratic gains, as well as a critical chance for new ideas and new blood to emerge as the party seeks to identify its next generation of leaders and dig out from a low point after President-elect Donald Trump’s shocking White House win.


The sweeping gubernatorial map takes in virtually every national battleground state and segment of the electorate. Diversifying states where Democrats have struggled in recent midterms, like Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, will have open races in 2018. Unorthodox Republicans who carried blue states like Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts in 2014 will face reelection challenges, too, while Democrats will also look to replicate recent successes in a handful of red states.

And, critically, Democrats itching to prove they can still win in the Midwest will get the opportunity to test themselves by chasing GOP-held governorships in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.

“I don’t think there’s any question that 2018 will be a watershed year for the Democratic Party in the Midwest,” said Joe Rugola, an Ohio labor leader with the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and an at-large member of the Democratic National Committee. “We have to reverse some of the voter patterns we saw in 2016 or we’re going to end up with two Americas.”

Democrats will, of course, also spend significant energy on the next round of Senate and House races, as well as rebuilding the Democratic National Committee under a new chairman. But the conservative-leaning 2018 Senate map means Democrats will be almost entirely focused on keeping key red- and swing-state incumbents in office for the next two years, not electing new Democratic voices.

And while Democrats are out of power in Washington, they are reeling in the states, where there are 33 Republican governors. The GOP holds unified control of government — both state legislative chambers and the governorship — in 24 states, where a raft of conservative policies have been enacted in the latter years of President Barack Obama’s administration.

But Democrats also have a chance to claw back power in the states more quickly than in Washington.

“Just on the number of people who will be term-limited out, and the number of open seats — any time that’s available it gives us a very big opportunity to take back a state,” said Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.

DGA executive director Elisabeth Pearson expects a number of good candidates to come forward in the next year. “I think the future of our party is in Democratic governors’ hands, in a lot of ways,” she said.

While some Democratic Party groups have discouraged primaries in recent years, Pearson said interest in the 2018 races may spark a few spirited intraparty contests — and that it wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing for a party trying to find its way, provided the candidates stay civil.

“It’s not a bad thing to have a lot of people who are really qualified,” said Pearson. “Obviously, you don’t want to have primaries that tear down the party, but there could be some areas where it’s not a bad thing.”

Labor unions and other progressive groups, looking to turn the page from 2016, are already laying groundwork for the gubernatorial races.

“We see every race as make or break for working people, and the governors races will create a focal point for our members to understand how we can elect champions up and down the ballot,” said Mary Kay Henry, president of the Service Employees International Union.

SEIU is keeping organizers in place after 2016 in Hampton Roads, Richmond and Northern Virginia to prepare for the 2017 gubernatorial race there. Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, a self-described fiscal conservative, is seeking to keep the governorship in his party’s hands for a second consecutive term. Democrats are also pushing to take back the New Jersey governor’s mansion in 2017, with Gov. Chris Christie retiring.

Democrats’ gubernatorial push echoes the Republican Party’s rebuild after Obama’s election in 2008, after which the GOP won smashing victories at the state level and elected a slew of governors who went on to become major players in the party, like Wisconsin’s Scott Walker and Ohio’s John Kasich.

Republicans will not sacrifice those gains quietly. First of all, not every open race in 2018 will be competitive; a number are in safely Republican states like Alabama and Wyoming. And the Republican Governors Association is already gearing up to protect incumbents and open competitive seats alike in 2018, while also challenging for open Democratic-held states like Colorado. Republicans also feel confident about preventing Democrats from taking full advantage of all of their opportunities in the next election. The GOP gained governorships in the 2016 elections, flipping Missouri, New Hampshire and Vermont (but trailing in North Carolina, where a recount is underway).

“The DGA talked a big game for the 2016 gubernatorial races but severely underperformed and lost even more states,” RGA spokesman Jon Thompson said. “Republicans may face a larger amount of open seats in 2018, but Democrats have routinely recruited gubernatorial candidates who are out of touch, struggle with Main Street issues and are unable to win.”

Republicans were particularly successful in the Midwest after Obama’s election, something Democrats hope to replicate after Trump’s win. Malloy said he believes Democratic gubernatorial candidates will be able to dispel renewed fears that the region is drifting away from Democrats because they have not been able to sell white working-class voters on their economic agenda.

“Gubernatorial campaigns, by their very nature, take that one on,” said Malloy. “There is no room to have that disconnect. If you’re running for governor, you are going to get known and visit every community. It’s very personal ownership and people want to know you. That doesn’t mean there won’t be close elections, but it’s different.”

SEIU built infrastructure in key 2016 battleground states during the presidential election with an eye toward helping the Democratic Party grow its state-based footprint in 2018.

“Our ’16 investment was about a longer-term cycle,” Henry said. “The reason we were in Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida — all of those investments and our talents were placed in parts of the states where we knew there needed to be a through-line for 2018.”

Some Democrats even harbor optimism about electing red-state governors in 2018, noting that Democratic governors were elected in two Trump states in 2016 (Montana and West Virginia), while North Carolina’s Roy Cooper leads the uncalled race in another state Trump carried.

“I think Democrats can compete and succeed in any state in the country, but we really need to focus on bread-and-butter issues,” said Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, a former DGA chairman who won reelection this month, outrunning Hillary Clinton by double digits. “Politics becomes very local” in gubernatorial races, Bullock added.

Democrats are also hoping the next slate of governors races can catalyze party rebuilding further down-ballot, as it recently did for the GOP.

Numerous Democrats noted that electing governors in 2018 is the first concrete step the party can take toward having a bigger say in the next decennial redistricting process, after the 2020 census.

Republican governors and legislators fully controlled the process of drawing new congressional lines in 18 states (compared to just six for Democrats) after the 2010 Republican wave election. The GOP was able to draw state legislative boundaries in even more states, which helped incubate a new generation of Republican officeholders.

“There are 35 states where governors play a role in redistricting,” Malloy said. “Some we can win, and some we can’t. But a state like Michigan, which was unfairly drawn, or other Midwestern states — I think that gives us a real opportunity to look forward to a Congress that fairly represents people.”

EMILY’s List, the Democratic women’s group, is already talking to potential candidates in the 2018 states “with an eye on redistricting in 2020,” said Lucinda Guinn, the group’s vice president of campaigns.

Partly because of redistricting looming on the horizon, “There will be a lot of money, there will be a lot of focus, there will be a lot of energy around those races,” said Nick Rathod, executive director of the State Innovation Exchange, a group that promotes progressive policies at the state level.

“Everything will come down to those governors races,” Rathod continued. “The stakes are extremely high.”

