In an unusual reflection of the dropping support for its federal counterpart, the Ontario Liberal Party has lost five points off an eight-point lead it held in May over the Progressive Conservatives and now leads the party by just three points, less than the poll’s margin of error.

According to a July EKOS poll, 31.9 per cent of Ontario residents said they would vote for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals. The PCs had the support of 28.9 per cent of provincial residents, the poll found, with the NDP bringing in 25.9 per cent of voters.

While the Ontario PC party has managed to gain support since the last EKOS poll in May — when it had 26.3 per cent of the vote vs. the Liberals’ 34.7 — Ontario’s NDP has seen the highest growth rate, jumping five points from 20.9 in two months.

The Green party was able to get the support of 9.4 per cent of those surveyed — compared with 9.2 in May — while 4 per cent of people asked said they’d vote for another party.

With advance polls set to open Saturday for five Aug. 1 byelections, the figures point to an unusual and, for Wynne, uncomfortable parallel with federal voter intention numbers released Wednesday by EKOS. Those showed nearly identical support for Ontario’s federal party counterparts, with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals getting the support of 30.4 per cent of Canadians, the governing Conservatives getting 28.4 per cent of the vote and the NDP bringing in 23.4 per cent of the vote.

In both the provincial and federal polls, the Liberals have seen significant gains shaved to margin-of-error leads, with Conservatives managing not only to maintain seemingly unflinching support, but even to gain points. In the case of the federal Conservative party, which has been marred by the Senate expense scandal for months, the numbers are significant.

In a note about the poll, EKOS President Frank Graves said the provincial/federal parallel was uncommon, adding that it could signify Ontario voters are beginning to align themselves with party brands as opposed to politicians.

“(T)his could signal that Ontarians are beginning to associate themselves less and less with parties and individual politicians, and more and more with political ‘brands,'” Graves said.

Ontario’s last provincial election, in 2011, saw Liberals garner 37.6 per cent of the vote, the PCs bring in 35.4 per cent and the NDP total 22.7 per cent.

July’s poll shows that female voters were more likely than men to support Ontario’s Liberals, with 36.6 women versus 28.2 men saying they’d vote for the Grits if a provincial election were held tomorrow. In contrast, 34.4 per cent of men said they’d vote for Tim Hudak’s PCs compared to only 21.9 per cent of women. Liberal party support was highest in northeastern and central Ontario (41.6 per cent), whereas PC support was highest – 30.5 per cent – in the suburban Greater Toronto area. The NDP did best with 31.4 per cent of voters in Southwestern Ontario.

The highest levels of support for both the Liberals and the PCs – 38.8 and 36.5 per cent, respectively – came from Ontarians over the age of 65. The NDP saw most support, 29.3 per cent, with residents under the age of 25.

In terms of education, Liberals saw their greatest support, 41.8 per cent, come from university graduates. The PCs got most of their support – 32.7 per cent – from people with a high school degree or less. The NDP also got most support, 26 per cent, from university educated voters.

According to the poll, more people not born in Canada–referred to as being born in a country ‘other’ than Canada–support the PC party than the Liberals.

The poll showed 35.1 per cent of foreign-born people supported the Conservatives compared with 27.8 for the Liberals. Support for Liberals from those born in Canada was at 33.1 per cent while 27.2 percent of Canadian-born people supported the PCs. Support for the NDP was close between foreign and Canadian-born Ontarians, with 26.3 per cent of those born in Canada supporting the party and 24.3 per cent of foreign born people giving the party a nod.

The poll’s margin of error was +/-3.4 points, 19 times out of 20. It surveyed 830 people in Ontario by cell and landlines between July 4 and 9.