Joan Ryan says ‘realistically no one thinks’ PM will lose, as colleagues say strong poll figures are undermining their message

A Labour candidate has written to voters in her marginal constituency saying that “realistically” Jeremy Corbyn will not win the general election and urging them to back her as an independent-minded local MP.

Joan Ryan, who was Enfield North’s MP between 1997 and 2010 and regained the seat from the Conservatives in 2015, encouraged voters to elect her “whatever your misgivings about the Labour leadership” because she expected Corbyn would not become prime minister.

Several Labour candidates have privately said they are not seeing on the doorsteps the dramatic shift towards Labour that some recent polls have suggested.



Ryan wrote: “I know from speaking to people around here that many who have previously voted Labour are thinking hard this time because, they tell me, they have more confidence in Theresa May as prime minister than they would have in Jeremy Corbyn.

“The polls are all saying that the Conservative party will win a large majority, possibly with more MPs than they have ever had before. Realistically, no one thinks Theresa May will not be prime minister or that she will not have the majority she needs to negotiate Brexit.”

E17 Conservatives (@E17_Tories) Wow, what an endorsement of @jeremycorbyn by his candidate in Enfield North @joanryanEnfield #LabourShambles. Vote @nickdebois on June 8th. pic.twitter.com/S855eONFwg

Ryan said many people were concerned about what a huge Tory majority would mean for the NHS, schools and the state pension.

“I am independent-minded and have always put Enfield first,” she wrote. “I will also continue to work for a Labour party that once again can deserve your confidence and that of the country as a whole, so we may govern in the interests of the many and not just the privileged few.”

Despite polls showing a surge in support for Labour over the past week – some suggest the gap has narrowed from 25 points before the campaign began to just three – many Labour candidates expressed scepticism and warnedthey were not seeing the same trend on the doorsteps.

Several said YouGov’s finding that a hung parliament was possible was baffling, compared with their experience speaking to voters. One senior campaigner said he had seen no evidence of a dramatic change on the doorsteps over the past week. “There is a very big danger that the polls are scaring off the undecideds and sadly there is evidence that they are – I could kill YouGov,” the campaigner said.

Activists said the message from Labour candidates that a Tory majority was likely and that they needed to vote for a strong opposition had been working well but was now being undermined by the polls. “It is killing us, particularly outside London,” the source said.

A Labour candidate who has canvassed in seats across the UK called the polling “bizarre” and said they could not understand the apparent shift. “The polls are so different from the doorsteps. I’m not feeling a change in safer seats or in marginals, so where is it happening? If something is changing, it might be our canvassing samples are too small to pick it up, so fingers crossed that’s the reason.”

A second Labour candidate in a safe London seat said campaigning in marginals had been a dispiriting experience. “I don’t think we are in Tory landslide territory now but we are not likely to win.”

In the Midlands, one candidate described their inner-city seat as “rock solid” but said that in the smaller towns the picture was very different. “Everywhere else, it’s really difficult even with 2015 voters. Either we are talking to totally different people, or the polls are wrong. None of my colleagues are seeing the polls reflected on the doorstep.”

One candidate said the Conservative manifesto had changed voters’ opinions of May but not necessarily their decision about whether to vote for her. “She has definitely plummeted in people’s estimation – there’s shock at how bad she is – but they still seem prepared to vote for her because Corbyn’s negatives are bigger. We get more about him on the doorstep.”

Another in the West Midlands said their experience was that older voters were reluctantly opting for the Conservatives, despite the deeply unpopular “dementia tax” pledges on social care. “Middle-aged and older voters don’t like Jeremy, and that is enough to make them stick with May even if they don’t like individual policies. They still can be persuaded, but it takes longer.”

However, another London Labour candidate said they were confident the Lib Dem vote had shrunk, which they expected would help Labour. “Turnout will be crucial. I’m optimistic for my seat, but Midlands and north-west will be more problematic.”

Several said many traditional Labour voters were telling canvassers they were not sure who to back. “My worry is that they are ashamed to tell us they are voting Tory, but I don’t know for certain,” one candidate said.