Election storm clouds will follow the California Republican Party to its convention in San Diego this weekend.

But some members are starting to see a bit of sunshine ahead:

A couple of rounds of polls suggest Republican John Cox of Rancho Santa Fe has become a legitimate gubernatorial contender for a spot on the November ballot. Some surveys also have Assemblyman Travis Allen of Huntington Beach in the hunt.

A likely measure in the fall election to repeal the state gas tax could bolster Republican turnout.

Some GOP candidates believe they’ve caught a bit of lightning in a bottle by capitalizing on the backlash against California’s immigrant sanctuary state laws.

There is a growing belief among some analysts that the Democratic blue wave won’t be all its cracked up to be.

But then here’s former California Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring bringing a dose of grim reality to the welcoming party as the convention opens today at the Sheraton Hotel & Marina on Harbor Island.

Cox’s poll numbers are a plus, Nehring acknowledges. But he said the very real possibility of two Democrats facing off for governor in the fall — Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, the front-runner, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — would be an unmitigated disaster for the state GOP, with consequences for years to come.


“It’s an existential threat to the party if we don’t have a Republican at the top of the ballot,” said Nehring, contending that would depress GOP turnout and cause big trouble for down-ticket races.

Nehring and other Republicans essentially have given up on the U.S. Senate race. That’s despite a couple of quirky polls that cast doubt on the one seeming certainty this year — another all-Democratic race in November, with incumbent Dianne Feinstein facing state Sen. Kevin de León. The polls were greeted with skepticism.

Former-Democrat-turned-Republican James P. Bradley of Laguna Niguel has never run for office before and has no campaign funds. Yet he polled at 10 percent support, one point behind second-place de León, in a late-April UC Berkeley IGS Poll.

Like most everybody else, Bradley said he was shocked by the results. Feinstein continued to easily lead the field of 32, as she has in all polls, with 28 percent.


Things were even weirder in a SurveyUSA poll in mid-April. Feinstein received 39 percent, some guy named Patrick Little got 18 percent and de León had a measly 8 percent.

Plenty of people were incredulous about that, and no doubt even Republicans activists are disturbed. Little spews strident anti-Jewish sentiments on social media and his website.

Storm clouds, indeed.

All this trouble is just for the June 5 primary. Nobody gives the Republicans any hope of actually winning the governor or Senate races in November, even if they have acceptable candidates.


“It would take a miracle for a Republican to be in the November (Senate) race,” said Nehring, who also had served as a chairman for the Republican Party of San Diego County.

Given Republicans were shut out of the Senate race in November 2016 when there was an open seat, a return performance would raise the legitimate question of whether the GOP could ever get a candidate on the fall ballot.

Under the state’s top-two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes advance regardless of party affiliation. As it stands, no Republican holds statewide office in California — a status that wasn’t even the result of the primary system.

But not having a Republican candidate for governor in November would be a first, and much worse than lacking a Senate nominee, according to Nehring and others.


A fall candidate in theory would attract more money to the party, aimed at boosting turnout and the overall ticket, if not really seeking to win the executive office. Cox, a wealthy businessman who has spent $4 million on his campaign, will be vying with Allen this weekend for the party endorsement, which requires support from 60 percent of the delegates.

But would either have the right stuff to make a difference?

“I don’t see how a Republican gubernatorial candidate who can’t bring tremendous fundraising, star power or excitement to the race has coattails,” Thad Kousser, a political scientist at UC San Diego, told The Hill this week. “We watched this movie in 2014, when Jerry Brown ran against an underfunded Neel Kashkari and saw the lowest turnout rate in state history. There’s no reason to think that the sequel will be any different.”

Republicans pushed to gather signatures for an initiative to repeal legislation that increased the gas tax by 12 cents a gallon and boosted the levy on diesel fuel and fees on automobiles


Early polls showed majority support for the repeal and Republican leaders believe that popular support for the measure will help their candidates. Cox is chairman of the initiative drive to put the repeal on the November ballot.

Nehring agrees the measure would help, but only so much.

“It is not a substitute,” he said. “It is not a substitute for a candidate at the top of the ticket.”

Nehring insists he’s not trying to be a downer, but seeks to goad the party into acting differently.


“It’s not pessimism,” he said. “I want our candidates and their operatives to be aware of the political climate they are running in. They need to run smarter and harder.”

He said Republicans need to tailor their campaigns to their specific races and be wary of broader national trends. Having said that, he said the sanctuary law backlash can work for Republicans if they talk about it in a certain way — raising the prospect that it could help keep criminal immigrants from being deported.

Moreover, while the top-two primary presents a nightmare scenario for the GOP in statewide races, it may work to their favor in some battleground congressional districts, such as the 49th, held by the retiring Darrell Issa, R-Vista. There and in some other districts, Democrats have been trying to thin their large fields of candidates, with mixed success, out of concern that two Republicans could advance to the fall.

Dick Morris, the former consultant to President Bill Clinton, just recently argued that GOP fortunes nationally are more promising than what’s being reported. Now a regular critic of the Democratic Party, Morris pointed out that Trump’s national job-approval numbers have been on the rise and that improves Republican chances of holding the House and gaining in the Senate.


Democrats are also losing ground among millennials, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll

However, Trump’s numbers have dropped in California, according to the UC Berkeley IGS poll. Republicans are trying to protect eight seats targeted by Democrats, a battle GOP state Chairman Jim Brulte has said is crucial to controlling Congress. Trump isn’t helping.

Maybe karma will. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi expressed such confidence in gaining the majority again that she recently introduced fellow Democrats as incoming committee chairs, according to Politico.

If Republicans need some cheering up, they might recall that not long before the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton’s victory was considered such a sure thing that some Democrats believed they might take over the Senate.


That worked out well.