You’re on the Clock: Mock Draft Analysis Vol.2

Best Available Options Pierre Garcon WR WAS Andre Ellington RB ARZ Michael Floyd WR ARZ Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN Victor Cruz WR NYG Roddy White WR ATL Shane Vereen RB NE Ryan Matthews RB SD Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI

Details: 12 Man League

Scoring: PPR

Roster Size: 16

Starting Line-up: QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, DEF

It’s time for another edition of “You’re On The Clock”, Gridiron Experts group Mock Draft Analysis piece. The concept is simple: a group of our writers will be given a scenario and asked their opinion to make the next pick in a fantasy football draft. Let’s see what our writers did with pick 3.10.

Staying true to our PPR rankings, Pierre Garcon is the pick. Of course, the risk of starting a draft three rounds deep with nary a running back is apparent, but there’s not really much of a point in reaching for the 17th running back here, especially when you consider this is a PPR league. Garcon has amazing hands and catches everything thrown his way, and will continue to shine under Jay Gruden. Jody Picks: Pierre Garcon

The strategy element is something I love about fantasy football drafts. If this was a league I was drafting live, I would have a board that shows me the picks of teams 11 & 12 just for this reason.

Team 11 doesn’t have a running back either. Instead, he has two wide receivers, and the odds of him selecting Pierre Garcon is highly unlikely. There is a high probability that team 11 will draft a running back, my guess would be Andre Ellington or Shane Vereen. Team 12 on the other hand is going WR-WR for sure. This is a PPR league and he is hoping I do something stupid. He is praying Garcon makes it to him, but has probably already come to terms with the fact that he’ll have to pick from players like Vincent Jackson, Michael Floyd,Victor Cruz, etc. The aggressive nature of team 11 going with back to back WR picks makes me think he’ll go RB in round three, but could easily pull the trigger on another WR in round four, as this league starts three WR’s and has a flex. So value wise, I think it would be foolish to let Pierre Garcon slip past me.

My prediction of the next six picks goes: Garcon (me), Andre Ellington or Shane Vereen (team 11), Vincent Jackson & Michael Floyd (team 12), Victor Cruz or another WR (team 11), then back to me. This gives me a chance to have my cake and eat it too. Even if team 11 picks back to back RB’s, I feel there’s a better chance he lets a player like Andre Ellington or Shane Vereen come back my way far before Pierre Garcon. Mike Picks: Pierre Garcon

After assessing the situation, I immediately knew that Pierre Garcon would be my target. I already have a QB, and with Julius Thomas and Jimmy Graham off the board, my options are down to taking an RB or a WR. This thought might not come to other drafters, but I turn down the possibility of taking an RB quickly. 16 out of 33 players selected have been running backs, and without even looking at the backs available, I know that I likely won’t be able to find any value in that position and will be making a reach if that is the route I chose.

The way I see it, as a fake football team, you don’t need a “complete team”, and drafting for needs eliminates opportunities for value and makes you reach for players. Then when I actually look at the available RBs and see that the best options are guys like Andre Ellington and Ben Tate, I think to myself that there is no way I am getting an RB. In most scenarios and especially this one, if I didn’t take an RB at this point in the draft, I would initiate a Zero-RB strategy where I don’t take an RB until the late rounds where I load up on cheap, high-upside backs. At this point I know I am taking a WR due to the process of elimination, and I zero in on Garcon.

Pierre Garcon led the NFL in receptions in 2013; despite the addition of DeSean Jackson, Garcon should still flirt with 100 receptions as new coach Jay Gruden airs the ball out a ton, giving him immense PPR value. Taking into consideration who I already have and what is available, Garcon is without a doubt the pick for me.

Sean Picks: Pierre Garcon

I would consider Pierre Garcon here, but given that I don’t have a running back yet in this scenario, I don’t want to push my luck any further at the position. Shane Vereen is the next running back in my PPR rankings and, coincidentally, I currently have him ranked at #34 overall. In just eight games last season, Vereen caught 47 passes for 427 yards and three scores. He also added 208 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Extrapolated over 16 games, that projects to 94 receptions, better than 1,200 total yards, and eight trips to the endzone. With LaGarrette Blount’s 153 carries, 772 yards, and seven scores up for grabs in the Patriots offense, I think Vereen will be more involved in New England’s rushing game than he has been in the past. Additionally, Tom Brady and company averaged seven fewer points per game in 2013 than they did the year prior, and last season’s scoring output was the lowest for the Patriots since 2009. Even a modest uptick in scoring would provide more opportunities for Vereen, and I think he could easily outperform the 1,200-yard, 8-touchdown scenario. Jason Picks: Shane Vereen

I’m taking a running back here since I know I already have what are likely a top-five quarterback and wide receiver already. Since this is a PPR league, this is a tough choice for me between Andre Ellington and Shane Vereen, and I could go either way, but I’ll take Ellington. He’s the undisputed starter for the Cardinals, who won’t see a ton of shared time in Arizona’s backfield. Vereen will likely be used mainly on passing downs, while Stevan Ridley does most of the running. Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has already said Ellington will be in line for a bunch of touches this season, and based on Ellington’s limited, but productive, playing time last year, he’s a breakout player waiting to happen. Despite seeing relatively limited playing time behind Rashard Mendenhall last year, Ellington was still targeted 57 times, catching 31 passes for 379 yards and a score. His receiving ability is what makes him such a high-potential fantasy option, but he’ll see the majority of carries this year as well. Again, that’s mainly why I’m taking him ahead of Vereen here, but you could go either way. Zach Picks: Andre Ellington

As much as I love Pierre Garcon this year in PPR formats, I look at the teams picking after me and decide to not risk losing out on a PPR stud like Shane Vereen. With an elite-level wideout and an elite-level quarterback already rostered, running back is the next position of need. The best part of this draft position, however, are the chances you still land Garcon on the way back down the draft order. Having already drafted Brandon Marshall and Julio Jones, it’s not likely Team 11 goes for another wideout, instead looking to add a new position this early on. Team 12 is your biggest threat in the Garcon sweepstakes, as he/she has two consecutive picks, but either way — whether based on filling your roster or position scarcity — Vereen holds the most value here at 3.10. Shae Picks: Shane Vereen

Just due to the fact that you have an RB needy team behind you with two WRs, you need to pick a back here and possibly wait on your WR2 at the 4.3 pick. For that RB, I think it needs to be Andre Ellington since he’s the likely starter and expected to get 20+ touches per game in 2014. For PPR he’s pretty good, but did only get 39 receptions last season with a high game of 5 receptions. Those numbers should go up with his larger role. Vereen is tempting, but I will always be wary of Belichick. However, if he’s still there when it comes back to me at 4.3, I would likely take him to pair with Ellington. I just don’t want Vereen as my RB1 on any team, but I like him as an RB2. Already having A.J. Green, I rule out a WR2 as my first pick. PPR is amazingly deep for WRs, so there is no rush when you already have an elite WR1. If I did take a WR right after Ellington, it would likely be Garcon, Roddy, or Andre Johnson. Darren Picks: Andre Ellington

At first blush, Vincent Jackson seems like a curious choice in a PPR league, but consider that his 78 catches from last season were a career high. Since coming to Tampa Bay, Jackson has slowly developed into a more complete receiver, rather than just a deep threat. It’s important to note that Jackson amassed those receptions with a rocky quarterback situation. Going from Josh Freeman to a rookie signal caller is never ideal for a pass catcher. I’m not the biggest Josh McCown fan, but he should at least bring some stability for Jackson. In Chicago, the veteran quarterback showed a willingness to feed his big receivers; Jackson fits that mold. As a bonus, the only true competition for targets is Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Both players are rookies and will be up and down from week to week. Being the elder statesmen of the receiving corps should assure Jackson gets his fair share. Don’t rule out that Jackson surpasses the high-mark of his career, receptions wise. He’s a sneaky pick here, but one that could pay off nicely. This fantasy team can afford to target running backs in the fourth and fifth round. There are plenty of good options there this year. Matt picks: Vincent Jackson