Population trends are working against the Republican Party — at least that’s what we’ve been told.

But a combination of the 2016 presidential results and early looks at reapportionment after the 2020 census shows that the short-term changes may not be as dramatic as once believed.

Fifteen states are likely to gain or lose a congressional seat next decade due to population shifts, according to Election Data Services. Those changes will also impact how many electoral votes are allocated to each state.

Texas is poised to gain three seats and Florida two seats, according to EDS analysis done at the end of 2015. Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado and Oregon are likely to each gain a single seat.

Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia are likely to lose a seat. (Updated census data and analysis are expected in the next few weeks.)