If there’s a blue wave on Nov. 6, it will have to sweep over the red tide that flowed into the Inland Empire during California’s primary.

Republican candidates did very well in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, giving a boost to the GOP in a region where Democrats have made steady progress and providing a counter-narrative, at least locally, to predictions of a Democratic landslide in the general election.

“It’s déjà vu all over again,” said Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne.

“The voter turnout and results are eerily close to the 2014 election. Lower Democratic turnout is largely to blame, although the votes for Democratic candidates may come up a bit as conditional ballots are counted.”

“Republicans did well in those districts relative to their 2016 performance,” said Rob Pyers, research director for the nonpartisan California Target Book, which studies state legislative races.

“But when you look at the results from the 2014 primary, the results look flat,” he said. “The GOP has been in a steep decline in the Inland Empire over the past four years, though, so even remaining above water in some of these districts will be perceived as a win … Given (Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom’s) relatively weak showings in both Riverside and San Bernardino counties, I’m wondering if that is going to cause turnout issues and create an additional opening for Republicans.”

Whatever the reason, it was a good night for Inland Republicans. While Democrats, including Newsom, prevailed statewide, Republican candidate for governor John Cox finished first in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, as did GOP candidates for secretary of state and controller.

Bill Essayli and Henry Nickel, Republicans running for Inland Assembly seats, outpaced their Democratic counterparts. Inland Republican congressmen Ken Calvert, Paul Cook and Duncan Hunter had strong performances, while GOP congressional candidate Sean Flynn led Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Redlands, as of Thursday afternoon in a district covering part of San Bernardino County.

Currently, Democrats are shut out of the November ballot for the 8th Congressional District – part of San Bernardino County, along with Inyo and Mono counties – represented by Cook, although the chances of flipping that seat were slim from the start.

At the county level, former GOP assemblymen Eric Linder and Russ Bogh guaranteed their November runoff spots with first-place finishes in crowded, nonpartisan races for two Riverside County supervisor seats.

Another Republican, Corona Mayor Karen Spiegel, has a narrow lead for second place next to Linder. If she hangs on, the GOP has an improved shot at keeping its majority on the Board of Supervisors, despite Democrats having pluralities of registered voters in four of five supervisorial districts.

In San Bernardino County, ex-Republican assemblyman Curt Hagman was re-elected supervisor, turning back a challenge from former Democratic congresswoman Gloria Negrete McLeod, whom Hagman beat in 2014.

Riverside County Democratic Party Chairman Steve Ruth pointed out his party’s local successes, including Supervisor V. Manuel Perez winning a four-year term and strong primary showings by Reps. Raul Ruiz of La Quinta and Mark Takano of Riverside as well as Assemblyman Eduardo Garcia of Coachella.

Still, Ruth said he was surprised and disappointed more Inland Democrats didn’t turn out for the primary. “One of my jobs will be to get the base out there to vote in November,” he said.

Turnout in both counties was around 19 percent as of Wednesday morning. About 9,000 more Republicans than Democrats returned their mail-in ballots in Riverside County as of June 4, according to absentee ballot data tracked by Political Data Inc.

The same data show Republican mail-in ballot returns outpacing Democratic returns by about 4,100 ballots in San Bernardino County going into the primary. More than 100,000 ballots remained to be counted in both counties after Tuesday.

‘We’re working hard’

Tuesday’s results were welcome news for Inland Republicans in a deep blue state where registered GOP voters are now outnumbered by voters unaffiliated with a political party. Once a solidly red region, the Inland Empire has become purple in recent years.

In 2012, Democrats won hotly contested races for congressional and state legislative seats representing Riverside County, and today, the Democratic Party has a voter-registration edge in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, although it’s not as big as other parts of California. Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton won both counties in recent presidential elections.

Murrieta Mayor and Riverside County GOP Chairman Jonathan Ingram said the county party has taken a different approach to voter outreach and social media since he became chairman in 2017.

“We’ve tried to bring back civility where possible,” he said. “We’ve reached out in a way that we hadn’t in the past and we’re far more engaged with the voter base … we’re working hard. We’re out there and we’re trying to be a political voice for this region.”

Ingram added: “California looked pretty red the night of (June 5). I don’t see hear or see any (Republicans) saying we’re going to rest on our laurels. We’ve got our work cut out for us – at least to make sure there’s a balance of power in Sacramento so it’s not one-party rule anymore.”

Republican candidates who outpaced Democrats on Tuesday night are seizing on their showings to make the case that their races will be competitive in November.

“The primary election results are a preview of the consequences awaiting Assemblywoman Sabrina Cervantes in November for selling out taxpayers by voting for the $52 billion gas tax hike,” said Republican Essayli, who finished ahead of Cervantes, D-Riverside, in the 60th Assembly District, which includes part of Riverside along with Corona, Norco, Eastvale and Jurupa Valley.

Essayli has made Cervantes’ swing vote for a $52 billion transportation funding bill that raised California’s gas tax a centerpiece of his campaign in a district where many voters commute outside the county for work.

Derek Humphrey, a Cervantes campaign consultant, said: “Tuesday’s results are a product of traditionally low turnout in Riverside County’s primary elections. We are not surprised. The number of voters will more than double in the November election and that electorate will strongly favor Assemblymember Sabrina Cervantes.”

He noted Cervantes finished second to Linder in 2016, only to defeat him in November.

Duane Dichiara, a campaign consultant for Nickel, the San Bernardino councilman running for an open seat in San Bernardino County’s 40th Assembly District, said his finish ahead of Democrat James Ramos “(is) proof of Nickel’s growing momentum.”

A county supervisor with a flush war chest, Ramos has been considered the favorite in the district. Incumbent Assemblyman Marc Steinorth, R-Rancho Cucamonga, chose not to seek re-election and came up short in his bid to unseat San Bernardino County Supervisor Janice Rutherford.

Ramos called the primary “just round one … I am confident that we will be able to gain support from Democrats, Republicans and Independent voters as they learn more of my record for the Inland Empire.”

Godwin pointed out that unlike Nickel, Ramos had to contend with another Democrat on the ballot and the Democrats’ combined votes were more than Nickel’s. James Ramos might have been confused for San Bernardino County District Attorney Mike Ramos, who lost re-election after a barrage of negative advertising, Godwin said.

The 31st Congressional District in San Bernardino County is considered a safe Democratic seat. But Flynn, an economics professor who didn’t make it out of the district’s primary in 2016, outpaced Aguilar in the early going before falling behind by 425 votes in updated results posted Wednesday afternoon.

“While there are still votes being counted, last night’s first-place finish confirms that this is a winnable district,” Flynn said Wednesday.

Aguilar campaign manager Matt Liebman said: “Inland Empire residents know that Congressman Aguilar is focused on expanding opportunities for all San Bernardino County families by working across the aisle to put veterans back to work, reform our broken immigration system, and provide law enforcement with the tools they need to keep our communities safe.”

Unofficial results as of Thursday morning had Flynn in first by just 83 votes. The only other candidate on the 31st ballot was Democrat Kaisar Ahmed, who got 5,500 votes.

Resurgence or not?

Academic observers have mixed opinions about whether Tuesday’s results foreshadow an Inland GOP resurgence in November.

“I don’t think it is a resurgence,” said UC political science professor Shaun Bowler. “It’s a low-turnout election and that generally works in favor of the GOP. And the IE is still pretty conservative, even if the more urban areas are less so.”

“If 2014 is any guide, Republicans will probably do better in the Inland Empire than they will statewide,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College. He noted that 2014 Republican gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari narrowly won Riverside and San Bernardino counties while losing decisively statewide to Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown.

Renee Van Vechten, a political science professor at the University of Redlands, said mid-term primaries “usually don’t create tsunamis, because turnout is so low – roughly half of what it will be in November.”

“I wouldn’t call it a Republican resurgence, because Republicans are just about a quarter of the state’s registered voters. But there’s a vigorous drive to stay alive and influential, and they’re competitive in certain Inland state and federal districts that are drawn to favor them outright,” she said. “Nonpartisan local races tend to favor Republicans.”

Ruth of the Riverside County Democratic Party predicted city council and school board races on the November ballot will boost Democratic turnout.

“City council is where these people can go out and actually engage with the voters and get to know them,” he said. “Once you do that, people are going to vote … I truly believe a big blue wave is coming in November 2018.”

RED TIDE

Here are Republicans candidates who came in first in their respective primary races in Riverside and San Bernardino counties as of Tuesday night.

Governor: John Cox

Lt. Governor: Cole Harris

Secretary of State: Mark Meuser

Assembly: Bill Essayli, Henry Nickel, Melissa Melendez, Marie Waldron

State Senate: Jeff Stone

Congress: Ken Calvert, Duncan Hunter, Paul Cook