In discussing Survivor, we often hear that it is a strategic game. I say it myself all of the time. On the surface, that is a fact. The social aspect of the game relies heavily on strategy and one’s ability to understand and apply game theory. In a perfect world, everything about the show’s camp hierarchy would be decided purely on strategy but we don’t live in a perfect world.

The fact of the matter is, to win Survivor one needs to also be lucky at many ventures. There is no winner out there that has not had a few things break their way in order to get them a victory. Whether a twist or a tribe swap, a lot of people who are in a great position one moment can find themselves right at the bottom the next.

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”, these words were uttered by poet-laureate Mike Tyson back in his boxing prime and it applies to Survivor too. Contestants often talk about having a plan for everything on the island but the second the game begins, it will often be who can best adjust that plan on the fly. Nobody can predict the turns any game will take ahead of time. Similarly, nobody can predict the type of people one will play with. So much about Survivor is simply being able to read the room and reacting to it.

… damn it Zhan Hu

You’ll often hear fans discuss certain player’s fates. For example, one I often hear is that Aaron Reisberger of Survivor: China got swap fucked. He was on the dominant Fei Long tribe and was essentially captured and taken by the more inept Zhan Hu tribe who then threw a challenge to eliminate one of the biggest threats in the game. In a sense, all of that is true but Aaron wasn’t the only one to be taken by Zhan Hu. James Clement was also swapped over to the other tribe. After seeing the writing on the wall, James managed to avoid having the axe fall on him instead of Aaron and then proceeded to figure out a game plan with Todd Herzog to avoid being the next to go when Zhan Hu threw another challenge. Now I love James Clement dearly but no one has ever accused him of being a mastermind and yet, he found a way out of his bad situation. Aaron could have fought a little more to have the same opportunity.

Besides, whether you like it or not, Survivor will never be fair. If the show was so worried about keeping things fair for everybody, Survivor: Micronesia and Survivor: Caramoan would have never even taken place. Both seasons start with an entire tribe of people that are basically there as fodder for the returning players. Putting new contestants on a season with people who have already had the island experience is anything but fair to those rookies. In no other season would you ever see a contestant manage to convince another to give away their immunity necklace in an attempt to curry jury votes (Brandon’s situation in South Pacific is different). That’s just what happens when you have Cirie Fields giving out directions to her alliance and sweet little Erik Reichenbach just wanting approval of his tribe.

There’s no way this will backfire

Just like in life, to be successful, you have to be a little lucky. How different is the entire scope of South Pacific if Ozzy draws a Upolu buff and Coach goes to Savaii? Brandon Hantz is almost certain to be an early boot for his quick triggered temper and then the entire season’s religious angle is basically thrown out the door. In Thailand, things probably shake out very differently if Jake and Jan go a different direction in the tribe pick, although Brian probably wins that season regardless because he is the iceman.

Sometimes, players make their own luck. Like in Survivor: Gabon where the game began with a school yard pick, just like in Thailand. Gillian Larson’s Fang tribe selection was so terrible, even at first glance, that it could be predicted that they might have a tough time competing. Had the players chosen themselves in a more intelligent way, the game breaks down a lot more evenly and the entire shape of the season changes.

Consider also the tie breaking rule; the purple (or later on other colored) rock. It becomes a game of chance where you have one chance out of x amount of rock drawers to be eliminated from the game. Not because your tribe voted you out but because you drew the wrong colored rock. Imagine if in Blood vs Water, Tyson Apostol would have been the one to draw the rock. With an idol in his pocket no less. The entire end game of that season would have been altered. Both fans and producers probably breathed a sigh of relief when he managed to avoid being eliminated.

Katie is about to find out where her seat is

If you need luck to be successful, the inverse is also true. Consider Survivor: Palau’s Ulong tribe. On paper, they were the more athletic and young crew when compared to the bunch of people that made up Koror. Out on the field, it became quickly clear that Ulong was destined to be outclassed by Koror every step of the way. At any point, producers could have stepped in with a random tribe swap to change the way the waves were flowing but they didn’t. Ulong was being beaten due to their ineptitude but also some bad luck and the producers didn’t feel the need to alter their chance. If they had, it would have been a stroke of good luck for them while fans would have complained that it wasn’t fair to Koror, who were doing just fine without any production interference.

Like the players, producers also have to rely on luck every once in a while. Think back to Survivor: Cambodia when the vote for the cast was being held. Producers decided to completely hand over the casting for an entire season to the fans. History can back up that fans don’t always make the best decisions and it could have been recipe for disaster if they had wanted to strike a campaign to elect some weird choices out of the 32 possible contestants. The final 20 were maybe not the perfect mix but ultimately, the cast was still fairly strong.

Another moment that had production gambling on chance was the Outcasts twist in Survivor: Pearl Islands. Both the Morgans and Drakes could have beaten the outcast tribe in the challenge and suddenly, nobody re-enters the game from Ponderosa. That both tribes lost to them was the best possible outcome from production’s point of view but it was never a given. The Outcast twist is also often cited as the least fair twist that the show has ever thrown the contestants’ way. That is probably true but you have to remember that everything and anything is part of the game. Besides being a Survivor fan, I also watch Big Brother and that show has contestants returning from being voted out almost every season so it didn’t surprise me that Survivor followed suite.

As fans we are always going to complain about the way things work out if our favorites are impacted. It’s natural, I was pissed during Survivor: Game Changers when Malcolm Freberg was voted out at the combined tribal council and when Cirie was voted out without a vote to her name. What we have to understand is that to producers, they don’t care about anything other than creating a good television product. Getting anger out of the fans is a win from them because they are eliciting emotions. Producers would rather see us get angry rather than not react to their show whatsoever because it means we are getting involved with the product. As long as Survivor is on the air it will remain that way.

Strategy will always be important and necessary to win the game. It is just one component of the many things a winner needs to have in their back pocket. Part of those components will always be at least a modicum amount of luck. It may not be what the fans like to hear but it does not make any less true. You just have to hope that next season, your favorite players have the luck fall on their side.