Ahok, a Christian of Chinese descent, has angered Indonesia’s religious conservatives by referencing a verse from the Islamic holy book on the campaign trail

What is happening?

Jakarta’s governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, better known by his nickname Ahok, will face the first day of his trial on charges of blasphemy on Tuesday.

Ahok, a Christian of Chinese descent, angered religious conservatives after he referenced a verse from the Islamic holy book, Al-Maidah 51 of the Qur’an, on the campaign trail in September. Ahok rather boldly told voters they should not be duped by religious leaders using the verse to justify the claim that Muslims should not be led by non-Muslims.

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An edited version of that speech was later posted online with several words omitted, making it seem as though Ahok was suggesting the Qur’anic verse itself was misleading, not the Islamic leaders citing it.

A recent poll by Saiful Manjani Research and Consulting (SMRC) showed that more than 45% of Indonesians believe Ahok’s statement was blasphemous. However, 88% of those polled across the country said they were unaware of how exactly Ahok referred to the Qur’anic verse.

Why is it happening?

For a start, Indonesia’s strict 1965 blasphemy law, which makes it possible to prosecute Ahok for his provocative comments. Rights groups have long campaigned for the law to be revoked. In 2012, a civil servant from Sumatra was sentenced to two-and-a-half years in prison for declaring himself an atheist on Facebook.

The second, more complicated, part of the answer appears to be politics. In the run-up to the Jakarta governor election in February there has been intense pressure from religious conservatives and hardliners, who have staged three colossal rallies since October calling for Ahok to be jailed for insulting Islam.

The rallies have put pressure on President Joko Widodo, leading the government to declare the case would be dealt with swiftly and would go to trial. The president has also publicly deplored “political actors” who he said have exploited the rallies for political gain.

Who is benefiting?

In short, Ahok’s rivals in the gubernatorial election. Before the blasphemy storm hit, Ahok and his running mate Djarot Saiful Hidayat were ahead in the polls, but that lead has since been eroded.

Running against Ahok are two pairs of candidates: one headed by Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, the son of the previous president, and the other by Anies Baswedan, who was axed as education minister in July. Three polls from November show Agus Yudhoyono now has a slight lead.

Does the Ahok blasphemy case mean Indonesia is becoming more radical?

Several indicators over recent years point to rising religious intolerance in the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, including growing discrimination and attacks against religious minorities, and a recent wave of vitriol against the LGBT community.

Rising religious intolerance was a criticism aimed at the former Yudhoyono administration, which oversaw a period when the hardline antics of Islamic thug groups such as the Islamic Defender’s Front (FPI) were largely tolerated.

The anti-Ahok rallies – the latest which saw an estimated 500,000 people take to the streets – was organised by a newly formed coalition of Islamist groups called the National Movement to Guard the MUI Fatwa (GNPF-MUI). The coalition also includes well-known members of the FPI.

While religious intolerance is a factor in Indonesian society, analysts have been reluctant to say the recent rallies are a sign the country embracing a more radical version of Islam – in part because there is a strong political dimension to the rallies.

The 2 December gathering was the biggest protest the country has witnessed in years but despite the huge turnout, in comparison to the more than 200 million Muslims in the country, it is still a small minority. Indonesia’s largest Islamic group, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), also urged its members not to take part.

However, there has been a new validation of hardline voices. The president’s decision to pray on stage with members of the FPI and other groups at the December rally appeared to diffuse tensions on the day, but some say it has imbued hardline groups with an unwarranted sense of legitimacy. Critics say courting such groups sets a dangerous precedent, one where a noisy hardline minority can influence the government and legal processes.

What happens next?

With his case expedited Ahok will attend his first court hearing on Tuesday, where he will be officially charged with blasphemy. If found guilty, he faces a maximum five-year jail term. Acquittals in blasphemy cases in the Indonesian courts are rare, but Ahok has vowed to continue his campaign and to contest the election.

Long term, the political pandora’s box Ahok’s case has opened up has raised big questions about Indonesia’s democratic progress, its commitment to unity and diversity, and the viability of members of the ethnic Chinese Indonesian minority holding prominent political positions in the future.