Election results — See how the Coalition defied the polls to retain power

Updated

Labor went into the 2019 federal election favourites off the back of almost three years of opinion polls, but within hours it became clear that the polls had failed to capture the mood of the electorate.

Queensland

The ALP was expecting to pick up seats off a low base in Queensland, but that was not to be the case.

The most high-profile scalp Labor was hoping to claim was that of Liberal leadership contender Peter Dutton, who sat on a slim margin in Dickson.

Despite a large Labor war chest and a scathing attack on Mr Dutton from former PM Paul Keating — who urged voters to "drive a political stake through his dark political heart" — the Liberal member held on.

Mr Dutton quoted Mr Keating in his acceptance speech: "This was the sweetest victory of all."

The result was emblematic of what occurred across the rest of the state.

Labor had hopes of taking seats like Petrie from the LNP …

… But instead the party found itself fighting for strongholds like Wayne Swan's former seat of Lilley.

In Queensland, the rise of United Australia Party and One Nation saw a collapse in Labor's primary vote and added up to two extra seats for the LNP in the Sunshine State: Longman and Herbert.

Victoria

Labor's east coast hopes rested with Victoria, where it might have been expected to do well — given the popularity of the state Labor Government.

And it was further helped by two redistributions, which turned two marginal Liberal seats notionally Labor.

The party was able to hold both Corangamite and Dunkley, but elsewhere in Victoria, it was a different story.

While Treasurer Josh Frydenberg faced a tough battle for his east-Melbourne seat of Kooyong, he prevailed.

Labor had been hoping to claim Higgins, in Melbourne's inner south-east, given the retirement of Liberal MP Kelly O'Dwyer.

But while there was a swing in Labor's favour, it was not enough to stop Katie Allen from retaining the seat for the Government.

The ALP also had hopes for Chisholm, but late on Saturday night it had swung back to "in doubt".

So for Labor, Victoria was not the bloodbath of the north, but it still wasn't pretty.

Tasmania

Of the five Tasmanian seats, Labor held four going into this election.

But the Liberal Party knew it could gain ground there.

Clearly in their sights was Braddon.

In the end, it was a boost for minor party candidates — particularly One Nation — and a significant plunge in Labor primary votes that handed the seat to Justine Keay's Liberal challenger Gavin Pearce.

Labor was able to retain the central seat of Lyons — likely benefitting from the disendorsement of the Liberal candidate — and Franklin, which takes in part of Hobart.

But the national shift was evident in the fight over Bass.

The Labor MP Ross Hart could not hold onto his seat, making the Apple Isle now equally blue and red, with one independent.

New South Wales

In NSW, off the back of a strong Coalition state election win, each side of politics took a seat off the other.

The Liberal Party faced internal struggles and insurgent independents.

They paid for that in Gilmore, where the Prime Minister had gone over the heads of local officials to install Warren Mundine — an ex-Labor Party national president — as the party's candidate.

Labor's Fiona Phillips was able to take advantage of the discontent to win the seat.

But in seats like Lindsay, on Sydney's western edge, the results were better for the Liberals.

With sitting Labor MP Emma Husar not recontesting following a staffing scandal, the Coalition saw an opportunity — and took it.

The biggest news out of New South Wales on the night — and a result against the grain of the election — was former PM Tony Abbott's loss in Warringah, a seat he held since 1994. Mr Abbott was pushed out by independent Zali Steggall, who campaigned heavily on a platform of climate change action.

And he was one of the first to acknowledge his party was on the march: "The good news is that there's every chance the Liberal National Coalition has won this election," he told the crowd in his concession speech.

Western Australia

As the results unfolded, Labor stalwarts turned their eyes to the west in the hope that it would buck the trend and deliver salvation, but it wasn't to be — essentially returning a status quo.

The Government's Minister for Aged Care and Indigenous Health, Ken Wyatt, came into this election holding Hasluck for the Liberals by a margin of 2.1 per cent.

He managed to boost that majority on Saturday.

The same goes for Pearce, Attorney-General Christian Porter's seat.

Mr Porter is considered a rising star in the Coalition ministry.

The two-party-preferred gap has gotten progressively smaller in Pearce over the past few years, leaving him with a margin of just 3.6 per cent coming into election day.

On Saturday, he managed to increase that, soundly beating first-time Labor candidate Kim Travers.

Swan, taking in both affluent and working-class areas of eastern Perth, was solidly Labor territory for years when it was held by former party leader Kim Beazley.

More recently it has gone blue, with Steve Irons holding the seat by a margin of 3.6 per cent going into the 2019 election.

His chief challenger this time around was someone with a bit of family history in the race: Mr Beazley's daughter, Hannah Beazley.

But the name recognition for Ms Beazley was not enough to overcome the statewide — and nationwide — mood.

And so at the end of the night the Coalition stood on the cusp of electoral victory. When it gets a majority in its own right, the Coalition will find itself in much the same position it did after 2016 — with all the risks to unity that a slender majority carries.

Credits

Reporters: Paul Donoughue and Tim Leslie

Developers: Nathan Hoad and Colin Gourlay

Editor: Cristen Tilley

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Topics: federal-elections, liberals, liberal-national-party

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