Survation are showing a lead for ‘Leave’, on EU membership, for the first time since November 2014. Yet how can one rely on opinion polls on this matter when it is doubtful those questioned know anything about the reasons for leaving or even remaining. That question is asked as even those supposedly in the know appear not to know.

A few days ago I became involved in a twitter exchange – on a twitter account I no longer use (and how that happened I know not, but I digress) with a Ukip parliamentary and european parliament candidate. The point of this post is not to ‘knock’ Ukip specifically (although the temptation is great) but to illustrate the question raised in the first paragraph.