The poll shows Hagan with a 4-point lead in North Carolina and a tight race in Iowa. | AP Photos Poll: Good news for Senate Dems

Democrats got some good news Sunday in the battle for the Senate.

An NBC/Marist poll of likely voters unveiled on “Meet the Press” showed Kansas GOP Sen. Pat Roberts down double digits, North Carolina Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan with a 4-point lead and a neck-and-neck race in Iowa.


The Kansas numbers are the most significant. Independent Greg Orman leads Roberts by 10 points, 48 to 38, in what until recently was seen as a safe Republican hold. The lead for Orman, who won’t say which party he’ll caucus with, comes despite an onslaught of ads from the right that aim to tie him to President Barack Obama.

A GOP loss in Kansas would require seven pickups elsewhere for the party to seize the Senate.

The Iowa results had Republican Joni Ernst with 46 percent to Democrat Bruce Braley’s 44 percent, within the 3.5-percentage-point margin of error. Last weekend, the Des Moines Register poll showed Ernst up 6 points, so this latest survey will aid Democratic efforts to argue that the race to succeed retiring Sen. Tom Harkin remains a true tossup and has not begun to drift away.

In North Carolina, Hagan leads 44 percent to 40 percent — just outside the 3.8 percent margin of error. The freshman Democrat has now led in the past 10 public polls.

But both candidates are underwater: Only 42 percent of voters have a favorable view of Hagan, compared to 48 percent who have an unfavorable view. Republican challenger Thom Tillis, the speaker of the state House, is viewed unfavorably by 47 percent and favorably by 36 percent.

In a danger sign for Democrats, Obama’s approval rating is in the 30s in all three states among likely voters: 35 percent in Kansas and 39 percent in both Iowa and North Carolina.

The environment is not hospitable for an incumbent in North Carolina, which is why the race remains very much in play. Only 25 percent of registered voters think the country is on the right track, one-third approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing and 49 percent think the new health care law is a bad idea (32 percent think it’s a good idea).

In Kansas, Roberts was viewed favorably by only 37 percent of respondents, while 47 percent said they have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican, who has served in Congress since 1981.

Orman, a 45-year-old entrepreneur, is viewed favorably by 45 percent. But 28 percent said they don’t know enough about him to offer an opinion. Fifty-five percent of his supporters say their vote for Orman is really against Roberts.

“He’s got high negatives, his intensity of support is low [and] he’s losing independents by more than two to one,” Marist pollster Lee Miringoff told NBC.

Orman caught another break last week when the Kansas Supreme Court upheld a ruling that Democrats do not need to name a replacement candidate for Chad Taylor, who removed himself from the ballot. In this poll, Orman is winning 77 percent of Democrats and 16 percent of Republicans.

The third candidate included is Libertarian Randall Batson, who is pulling what could become a significant 5 percent. The Libertarian in the North Carolina Senate race, Sean Haugh, has an even greater risk of playing the spoiler for Republicans. He’s pulling 7 percent, mostly from voters who want to vote against Hagan but not for Tillis.

In the Sunflower State’s governor’s race, GOP Gov. Sam Brownback is behind Democrat Paul Davis by a single point, well within the margin of error. The incumbent’s approval rating is 40 percent. About 20 percent of Republicans are defecting to Davis, and the Democrat is ahead among independents by 15 points.

In Iowa, Ernst is viewed slightly more favorably than Braley. An equal 44 percent like and dislike Ernst. Braley is viewed favorably by 39 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent. Republican Gov. Terry Branstad is crushing Democratic challenger Jack Hatch by 22 points — 58 to 36 — which the party hopes could give Ernst a lift.

The polls were conducted in the field from Sept. 27-Oct. 1. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points in North Carolina, 3.5 percentage points in Iowa and 3.9 percentage points in Kansas.