Photo by Niko Tevernise - © Lionsgate

As if doing a personal mitzvah for Keanu Reeves, Lionsgate just dropped the first official poster for the third John Wick movie. Nothing like taking the sting out of a studio dump like Replicas ($2.5 million, his lowest opening ever for a wide or semi-wide release) by offering new marketing for a surefire hit sequel. No, I don’t know if this means we’ll be getting a trailer soon, but a Super Bowl debut wouldn’t shock me in the least. So, yes, this moody, rain-soaked poster confirms that Lionsgate is apparently going with the terribly garbled John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum.

Geez, that totally rolls off the tongue, and 94% of all moviegoers are just going to say “Uh, two tickets for John Wick 3, please.” anyway. To be fair, that didn’t hurt the Star Wars prequels. And it probably won’t hurt Chad Stahelski’s third chapter in the ongoing “Keanu Reeves kills everyone but it’s okay because he likes dogs and he’s still so f***ing beautiful” franchise. The film will open on May 17, 2019, getting a clear upgrade from Chapter 2‘s early February release two years ago, which in turn was a promotion from the first film’s late-October debut back in 2014.

The only question is whether the franchise has peaked at part II (like Scream 2, Lethal Weapon 2, Taken 2, etc.) or will end on a financial high note (like The Bourne Ultimatum, The Return of the King or X-Men: The Last Stand). Presuming that it’ll at least open on par with John Wick: Chapter 2 (which was well-liked and well-received by fans and general audiences), we’re still looking at a $30 million+ debut. Despite being a sequel, John Wick: Chapter 2 legged it to $92m from a $30m launch and earned $171m worldwide, which was a rare case of a sequel increasing domestically and worldwide from its predecessor. It doubled the first film’s domestic take and made 93% more worldwide than John Wick.

Presuming this threequel, which adds Angelica Houston and Halle Berry to the mix, plays well to audiences, at the very least Reeves may snag his biggest non-Matrix opening weekend ever. For those keeping track, we’ve got The Matrix Reloaded ($91 million in 2003) and The Matrix Revolutions ($48m in 2003) and then Bram Stoker’s Dracula ($30.5m in 1992), The Day The Earth Stood Still ($30.4m in 2008), John Wick: Chapter 2 ($30.4m in 2017), Constantine ($29m in 2005) and The Matrix ($27m in 1999). Everything else, inflation notwithstanding, is $16m or below.

So, inflation aside, anything over $30.6 million for John Wick: Chapter 3 makes it Reeves’ third-biggest debut and his biggest non-Matrix opening ever. That would also give John Wick 3 Reeves’ seventh-biggest inflation-adjusted debut, behind only The Day The Earth Stood Still ($38m adjusted), Constantine ($41m adjusted), The Matrix ($48m adjusted), Bram Stoker’s Dracula ($64m adjusted), Matrix Revolutions ($70m adjusted, or what it made in the first four days of its $84m Wed-Sun debut) and Matrix Revolutions ($134m adjusted, which is ironically what it earned in its Thurs-Sun debut back in 2003). Could John Wick 3 pull a Bourne Ultimatum/Skyfall and pull a $40m+ debut weekend? Sure, that’s possible, but let’s not panic if it “only” opens with $25m.

Lionsgate

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