Welcome to the Pacific Northwest, where Democrats hold a narrow trifecta in Washington State. On Election Day 2017, Democrats gained a seat in the State Senate which gave them the majority, 25-24, and completed the trifecta. Since the governor is not up in Midterm years, Dems are simply defending the state legislature in November, and so we start in the State Senate with the ratings chart:

Washington Senate Ratings

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 44 (D) 30 (R) 6 (R) 39 (R) 31 (R) 26 (R) 42 (R) 35 (D*) 47 (R)

* = Democrat caucusing as a Republican

Likely D: 44

44th District: Steve Hobbs

First up is the only true Democratic seat that could flip, SD-44. It’s a D+4 seat with Incumbent Steve Hobbs, who first won here in 2006, meaning he won’t be easy to oust. In 2014, he won a pretty narrow re-election, 53-47, but that was 2014, a pretty strong GOP environment and this is 2018. He’s facing Doug Roulstone, who was an appointed State Rep. once upon a time, a legit candidate. Still, the partisan makeup of the district, incumbency advantage, national environment, and a much more massive war-chest gives Hobbs the clear advantage to hold his seat.

Lean D: 30

30th District: Mark Miloscia

In order for Republicans to be competitive in this chamber, they have to win a number of very blue seats and this D+9 seat held by Republican Mark Miloscia is one of the examples. It was open in 2014 when the Republican won it by 10 points. However, there are many reasons to think Miloscia is in a lot of trouble, including the fact that he’s a freshman Senator (weak incumbency edge) and that the swing in national environments alone (R+7 to D+5-12) swallows up his entire 2014 margin. Additionally, the most likely D candidate is Claire Wilson, a member of the Federal Way Public School Board, which is a good stepping stone to this type of office, and she’s raising enough money to win. Miloscia could easily pull the WA Senate version of Jim Gerlach and survive the potential wave, but I mark him as an underdog at this stage of the race.

Tossup: 6, 26, 35, 47

6th District: Open (Baumgardner)

Our first tossup is an open seat found in Spokane. It’s an R+3 seat that Trump won by 2 points, making it a clear Democratic pickup opportunity. Republicans have State Rep. Jeff Holy in the race, which is helpful since State House districts are identical to the State Senate, meaning he’s been elected by this constituency before. Democrats have Jessa Lewis, who has worked in the non-profit industry. Holy is currently the fundraising leader, though Lewis has been raising a good amount too, so while Holy is probably the favorite, he’s not enough of one, and this district isn’t red enough, for me to call it Lean R, which is why it lands in tossup.

26th District: Open (Angel)

Another open seat, this one might be the best Democratic pickup opportunity of the tossups. An R+1 district that Hillary Clinton won, it profiles like a number of seats Democrats will pickup nationwide in November. Both sides have quality candidates, with Democrats reeling in healthcare advocate Emily Randall, while Republicans got Marty McClendon, who ran for this seat under the old lines in 2010 and for Lt. Gov. in 2016. Randall has more money at this time, which is reassuring for Dems because McClendon has more name recognition. Expect this to be a competitive fight but I think the edge tilts to Randall right now.

35th District: Tim Sheldon

Here we have a turncoat Democrat, Tim Sheldon, trying to defend his seat. Sheldon was first elected to the State Senate in 1996 and he’s been an annoyance to Washington State Democrats ever since. Described on his Ballotpedia page as “the Joe Lieberman of the Democratic Caucus”, Sheldon has been caucusing with Republicans, which helped the GOP hang onto a majority until last fall’s special election. Democrats tried to knock him out in 2014 when a fellow Democrat slipped into the general election, but Sheldon won another term. In 2018, Democrats are trying Irene Bowling as a primary challenger again, hoping this time is the charm. Republicans have three candidates in the race, all of whom filed pretty recently, so it’s tough to get a sense of how this race sits. Since it is a Trump/R+1 seat, I could see anything from a Republican winning, to Sheldon winning again, to Bowling knocking him out and picking it up for Dems, so I’m just going to leave it in tossup and see what happens.

47th District: Joe Fain

One of the bluest GOP-held districts is SD-47, a D+6 seat held down by incumbent Joe Fain. Fain was first elected in 2010 and he had a pretty comfortable re-election in 2014, meaning he will not be a pushover, even if this is a very blue district. He’s also incredibly well funded and will be going up against businesswoman Mona Das in 2018. Das has some money but not a ton and is still considered an underdog. District partisanship and national environment will make her competitive, but she needs to run a very strong race in order to be Fain, which is still a tall task. And for that reason, we rate this as a tossup, but with a small R tilt.

Lean R: 39, 42

39th District: Keith Wagoner

This seat is normally up in 2016 but is having a special election since the old incumbent was appointed to a spot in the Trump administration. Keith Wagoner was appointed and he enters the fall as a nominal incumbent, though there is another Republican in the race, State Rep. Elizabeth Scott. Assuming only one Republican gets through the top two primary, they will be facing teacher Claus Joens, who is new to the race, meaning we have no fundraising data. This is an R+4 district, but Obama won it, so while it’s not a top pickup opportunity, it’s definitely on the board.

42nd District: Doug Ericksen

Our final Lean R seat is up in Whatcom County and sees Republican incumbent Doug Ericksen trying to defend his seat and win a third term in the Washington Senate. In 2014, Ericksen won by a 16 point margin, 58-42. While that’s a nice margin, as we’ve mentioned in other write-ups, the shift in national environment from one extreme to another alone should endanger Ericksen. Also, this is an EVEN PVI district that Clinton and Obama won, making it a tricky district for him to hold onto in 2018’s national environment. He’s facing either Tim Ballew, a commercial fisherman, or Pinky Vargas, a member of the Bellingham City Council, both of whom have been raising a respectable amount of money and putting it in play, but not yet a tossup.

Likely R: 31

31st District: Phil Fortunato

Last but not least, we have SD-31, split between King and Pierce Counties. Held by Phil Fortunato, this seat was actually up for special election in 2017, which Fortunato won 57-43. That margin for a Republican, despite the fact Democrats have been murdering special elections nationwide, was rather impressive, and makes me hesitant to mark Fortunato down as really threatened. That said, it is only an R+4 district and the incumbent doesn’t have a ton of money in the bank, so it’s not totally safe. He will be facing Immaculate Ferreria, who works with non-profits, and she doesn’t have a lot of money right now and it’s not clear she’s running a super legitimate campaign. We have to wait and see on this one but for now it’s a reach.

Path to a Republican Majority

Republicans only have to flip one seat to get the majority but the path is not very clear given that this is a blue state and the wind is in their faces. Democrats are defending 13 seats (not counting the Sheldon one) and only two of those have PVI’s of D+single digits. They are a D+9 seat and then SD-44, which is D+4. None of those are really feasible in a Democratic-leaning midterm. Furthermore, Washington State Republicans have their work cut out for them in trying to defend their plethora of vulnerable seats.

Bottom Line

As with many of this Democratic defense chambers, the chance of Democrats expanding their majority is significantly higher than Republicans flipping the chamber. Thus, I’m calling this chamber Safe D .

Chamber Rating: Safe D

Estimate if election were held today: D+1 to D+5