“Bubble Watch” digs into trends that may indicate economic and/or housing market troubles ahead.

Buzz: One in four Californians have seriously thought about leaving the state.

Source: A poll by the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley.

The Trend

Berkeley pollsters found 24% of voters had given serious consideration to moving out of California with another 28% giving “some consideration” to such a relocation.

The state’s high cost of living and its political divide were clearly on display in this survey.

Pricey housing was cited by 71% of those considering relocation as the top reason to leave — that included 77% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans.

High taxes were problematic, too, cited by 58% of this disgruntled crowd — with a notable split: 77% of Republicans blamed government levies vs. 36% of Democrats.

This philosophic fissure alone is a reason to move for some: 85% of the Republicans pondering a move blamed the state’s political culture vs. just 11% for Democrats.

The Dissection

Let’s remember, it’s easy to say you’ll leave, especially to a pollster. It’s another thing to pick up and go.

And “I’m moving” talk is up nationally, by one yardstick. Gallup pollsters found 16% of Americans in 2017 and 2018 said they’d permanently leave the U.S. — if they could — up from 10% to 11% seen in the previous two decades.

So how does California crankiness grade on a national scale? Sadly, there’s not a lot of comparable data.

Let’s not forget that on a national scale, the state has a young population. Young people move more frequently, but they are also the future.

Consider a 2015 national poll by Gallup that found 28% of California adults surveyed agreed to the statement “they would like to leave their state if they had the opportunity.”

But that level of unease was mid-range discontent on the countrywide scale: California tied with five states while 21 others had lower shares of residents pondering an out-of-state relocation.

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Historically, a small slice of Californians move out of the state compared with the rest of the nation.

Census stats show 4.8 million Californians moving to other states from 2010 to 2017. Yes, that’s 13% of the state’s population in eight years — but it’s also the lowest share (yes, LOWEST!) of exits of any state and nearly half the nation’s 18% rate of state-to-state movers.

Plus, the five big metro areas with the largest increases in length of homeownership between 2019 and 2009 were from California: Ventura County, San Jose, Los Angeles-Orange County, Inland Empire and San Francisco.

Other views

Californians still give their state a high grade. The Berkeley study also replicated a long-running Field Poll question about Californians’ view on the state’s quality of life.

Pollsters found 50% of Californians thinking the state was “one of the best places to live” tying 2007 with the highest score since 2000.

Again, the political divide: 67% of Democrats this year scored the state among the best; just 23% of Republicans did so.

And California looks dreamy to many Americans.

US News & World Report’s annual “best places” rankings include a survey of dream locations to live. Five California locations made the Top 25 this year: Salinas (No. 24), Santa Barbara (16), Los Angeles (11), San Diego (5), and San Francisco, in a four-way tie for No. 1.

How bubbly?

On a scale of zero bubbles (no bubble here) to five bubbles (five-alarm warning) … TWO BUBBLES!

If one in four Californians is seriously thinking about leaving, that’s not good, even if it’s partly political posturing and parallels pumped-up national anxieties.

Now history says, relative to its huge size, Californians mostly stay put. But assuming that such “stickiness” will hold forever can lead to complacency, then disappointment.