Isis may make the headlines, but the fate of northern Iraq may rest on a brewing clash for a city that neither side will accept losing

In Tuz Khurmatu, on the edge of what Iraq’s Kurds call their new south-eastern border, at least a dozen flags fly. Most are the colours of Shia militias that have set up compounds in the town. There are also Islamic banners paying homage to the faith’s imams; green, red and yellow splashes on a dull winter sky. In the middle, above a fortified base, stands a battered Kurdish banner.

Behind blast walls that date to the US military presence almost five years ago, Kurdish military and security chiefs monitor the situation in the town. They believe they control it, and insist it was rightfully reclaimed from Baghdad in the chaos that followed Islamic State’s rampage through northern Iraq in June 2014.

To the Shia militias surrounding them, however, the matter is far from settled. Tuz Khurmatu, and the road north to Kirkuk, are still very much for the taking.

Last November, an attritional campaign to control the area led to 10 days of clashes, the most serious flare-up with the Kurds anywhere in Iraq in the 12 years since the fall of Baghdad. Tensions have remained high ever since along the 55-mile road to Kirkuk, a city that has been a holy grail for both sides throughout Iraq’s history. The battle for northern Iraq may centre on Isis for now, but the region’s fate could also rest on a brewing clash for a city that neither side will accept losing.

“If this is to be our final battle, then so be it,” said the Kurdish security chief, Lt Col Faruk Ahmed, inside the Tuz Khurmatu base. “We will fight to the end for Kirkuk. It is ours, and always will be.”

Areas of Syria and Iraq under Kurdish control Areas of Syria and Iraq under Kurdish control

Over the past 18 months, Iraq’s Kurds have consolidated their grip on Kirkuk, and tried to secure new footholds in areas to the south, the control of which has long been disputed by both sides. Their unexpected chance to claim the city, coveted throughout Kurdish history, followed the collapse of the Iraqi army in the north. This created a vacuum in which the peshmerga, the Kurdish fighting force, beat Isis in a race to take control.

The Kurds have since commandeered the city’s main oilfield and send crude north through a pipeline to Turkey. The revenues have helped sustain the most emphatic push yet by Kurdish leaders to break a post-2003 tether to Baghdad, which is now under more strain than ever. Military bases and checkpoints are under the control of Erbil, the seat of Iraqi Kurdish power, along with local municipalities and governance.

Kurdish peshmerga seize a chaotic victory in Kirkuk Read more

The Shia militias now stalking them are sure that will change. “We will never accept the Kurds taking Kirkuk or Tuz Khurmatu,” said Mu’en al-Khadimi, a spokesman for one of the militias, the Badr Brigades, which fight under the banner of the Popular Mobilisation Units. Hashd al-Shabi, as the units are known locally, are irregular, predominantly Shia fighters who have more influence than the Iraqi military in many parts of the country.

“This is a direct breach of the constitution and we want to solve the problem through a political dialogue, not through military means like the Kurds,” he said. “They are taking advantage of the spread of Isis in the north. They have been taking Iraq’s oil and selling it through the Turkish border without consulting the central government.

“In Tuz Khurmatu, we are controlling the situation. We have the hospital under our control and we pushed the Kurds back, but they still control some checkpoints.”



Inside the Kurdish base, tensions are palpable. “There is no point denying what is happening,” said Ahmed. “They are on the streets near us talking about security understandings, and within 10 minutes they could be up on their roofs shooting at us.

“What they did on 20 November was unforgivable … For the next 10 days we were besieged in this base. I have bullet holes in my door. They went to the hospital and they slaughtered our lead doctor, just like Isis does. Is there really any difference?

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Kurdish peshmerga forces take up positions in northern Iraq. Photograph: AP

“We are not under any illusion about what is happening. Things are peaceful now, but we know they won’t be forever. For this to be sorted out it is way higher than any of us here. This is regional, and that’s if it’s solvable at all.”

In Erbil, the president of the Iraqi Kurdish region, Masoud Barzani, told the Guardian: “We don’t want clashes with anyone, but we will fight to the last person and we will not let anyone else control Kirkuk. We hope no one will think otherwise.

“I do hope that will not be their thinking,” he said of the militia’s interest in reasserting Baghdad’s control. “Because it will have catastrophic consequences.

“We are saying that that is part of Kurdistan. All of the areas under article 140 of the constitution. It’s illogical for our partners to stand against this. We will leave the fate of Kirkuk to be decided by the people of Kirkuk in a referendum. If they decided not to be part of Kurdistan, we would definitely accept that, but no one can impose their will by force.”

The militias have also made their presence felt on the road north to Kirkuk, where Shia Turkmen villages dot the landscape, near a small number of Sunni villages. The militias say they are there to protect the Shia Turkmen. They have dug trenches and built huge embankments around their villages.

Iraqi Kurdish forces take Kirkuk as Isis sets its sights on Baghdad Read more

They have also established outposts on Kirkuk’s southern edges, where the same flags pitched in Tuz Khurmatu fly defiantly near the beginning of the city’s overpasses. Just out of sight, giant flames belch from the earth, burning excess gasses from the fields beneath.

The North Oil Company stands near the centre of town, and as war booty goes it has been quite a prize. Oil from the Kirkuk fields has added close to 300,000 barrels a day in income to Kurdish revenue streams. Even with oil prices at around 12-year lows, Kurdish officials see the black gold as nation-building.

Not so the men who still run the fields. Inside are Arab technicians who receive their incomes from Baghdad and are hostile to the Kurdish presence. Without them the fields would not function . It is a paradox for Iraqi leaders, however, that if they did leave, the Kurds would install their own technicians, giving Erbil even greater control.

“They won’t meet anyone,” said a Kurdish official who tried to secure access to the company for the Guardian . “They said: ‘We do not take orders from you. If anyone wants to meet us, they should speak to Baghdad and get permission from there. We are being paid by the Iraqi central government and we are their employees.”

“It’s strange, but it’s the way it is,” said a senior Kurdish official in Erbil. “Ask the people who they want in charge, us or Baghdad. We’re happy for them to decide. And in the meantime, we will continue to secure Kirkuk.”