Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast ! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, regardless if you're playing season-long fantasy, DFS, or are grinding player props. If you're just looking for fantasy football rankings and only have 10 minutes to skim through for your sit/start decisions, then head over to the "Forecast" sections below where I project each player's PPR finish based on a 12-team league. But if you want to get your research on, then I have full player breakdowns. As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions.

Teams are listed in order of their implied points.

Page 1: KC, NE, PHI, HOU, CIN, MIN, NO, LAC, SF, DAL

Page 2: BAL, IND, CHI, CAR, TB, ATL, ARI, CLE, GB, TEN

Page 3: PIT, NYG, DEN, JAX, BUF, OAK, NYJ, WAS

TNF: SEA, LAR

Byes: DET, MIA

1. Chiefs (34, -11) vs. IND

Update: Sammy Watkins is expected to play, despite being a late add to the injury report. It's worth noting that this game is on SNF, so make sure to have a fill-in option just in case things go sideways.

Forecast: Patrick Mahomes QB1, LeSean McCoy RB2, Damien Williams RB2/3, Darrel Williams RB4, Sammy Watkins WR2, Mecole Hardman WR3/4, Demarcus Robinson WR3/4, Travis Kelce TE1

Backed with the highest team total (34) by a country mile, everyone knows to rank Patrick Mahomes as the No. 1 overall QB. … The Colts have PFF’s 31st-graded run defense and are dead last in run defense DVOA. There's an opportunity for these running backs to go off (that 11-point spread is nice, too) but we do have to guess/project how touches will be divvied up between LeSean McCoy (limited practice), Damien Williams (full practice), and Darrel Williams. … LeSean McCoy should continue to be the Chiefs’ primary runner (10 carries per game), and he’s been decent on the ground -- at least compared to Damien -- through four games despite playing with an injured ankle. McCoy is also capable as a pass-catcher, so Shady is an upside RB2 in a dream home matchup. … Before going down with an injury, Damien was the top passing-game option, but he did see 11 carries per game as well. That’s enough usage to fire up Damien as a high-upside RB2/3, especially against a Colts’ zone defense that has allowed teams to check down to running backs in the past. … Teams rarely use a third running back in a game, so Darrel will probably slide back into a very low-volume role. I’d shy away from starting him in most leagues, but it’s impossible to rule out him having a decent game in this explosive offense.

Tyreek Hill is out. ... Sammy Watkins hasn’t turned his usage into fantasy points in his three games without Hill after going off for 9-198-3 in the opener. Based on air yards and this week’s 34-point team total, Watkins deserves to be in the upside WR2 range. Against a zone defense that wants to limit big plays, I could see Watkins, who has lined up in the slot on 61% of his snaps, being targeted more than usual. … Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson’s outlooks are dependent on Hill’s status. If Hill is out, then Hardman and Robinson warrant WR3/4 consideration given their huge weekly ceilings. As you can see in the chart above, Robinson has been more utilized than Hardman, but Hardman is also way faster (4.33) than any of the Colts’ corners (4.51, 4.52, 4.59). … Travis Kelce is in a blowup spot this week. The Colts have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, and Kelce is getting awesome usage of course. Kelce has four targets inside-the-10 this season, and those are the ones that are actually valuable, not red zone targets (see Tweet below). This is the week when we see that touchdown regression come Kelce’s way.

2. Patriots (29.25, -15) @ WAS

Update: Rex Burkhead (foot) has been ruled out. That makes Michel more of an RB2 than an RB2/3. The same can be said for James White. ... Ben Watson will also not play. There's not a Patriots' TE worth starting this week.

Forecast: Tom Brady QB1, James White RB2, Sony Michel RB2, Julian Edelman WR1/2, Josh Gordon WR3, Phillip Dorsett WR4

Tom Brady has struggled against pressure this season, but the Redskins are in the bottom 15th percentile in adjusted sack rate, so that shouldn’t be an issue this week. The Patriots should carve up the Redskins’ bottom 10th percentile passing defense (DVOA), so Brady is back in the QB1 mix with the Patriots owning the second-highest team total of the week. … As 15-point favorites, there’s obviously room for the running backs to eat as well. Last week, Rex Burkhead was limited to just one touch because of a foot injury, and he’s been limited in practice this week. His touch projection is basically impossible to map out, but I do know his floor is zero and he's been ruled out for Week 5. … Burkhead’s foot injury is good news for Sony Michel who needs some good news right now. The Patriots have had positive game script in three-of-four games, but Michel only has 42.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game to show for it. That’s partially because Michel has the worst elusive rating among running backs and partially because of Burkhead’s role. There’s a decent chance Michel rebounds here. The upside is there and his floor is higher without Burkhead in the mix. He’s an RB2 right now until we see more. … My favorite running back play is James White, who is coming off a 10-target game last week. That level of usage isn’t likely to repeat, but five or so receptions and touchdown equity is enough for me to take the plunge as a fringe RB2/3, especially if Burkhead is questionable heading into Week 5. It’s worth highlighting that Wayne Gallman caught five passes and had a receiving touchdown against the Redskins last week.

A tough matchup and a chest injury slowed down Julian Edelman last week, but it’s time for him to get back on track. Edelman had WR2 usage before heading into Buffalo, and he has a tasty slot matchup with Fabian Moreau, who is dealing with a knee injury currently. Edelman is on the WR1/2 borderline against a Redskins’ defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers. … Josh Gordon will face CB Josh Norman, who has allowed the most touchdowns (4) while in coverage and 7th-most yards per coverage snap per PFF. The Patriots might scrap passing in the second half if this game gets out of hand early, but this is a week where Gordon only needs two or three deep targets to be worth a start. Gordon is a boom-or-bust WR3. I’m feeling a boom this week as long as his knee cooperates. … Phillip Dorsett ran a route on 80% of Brady’s dropbacks and saw the most usage on the team last week. Dorsett can win downfield and has caught all 11 of his slot targets. Dorsett is a flex play for Week 5. … The Patriots have targeted their tight ends the least in the NFL, but Ben Watson should see a handful of targets now that he’s off suspension. Watson is a zero-floor, touchdown-dependent TE2/3.

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3. Eagles (28.25, -13) vs. NYJ

Forecast: Carson Wentz QB1, Jordan Howard RB2/3, Miles Sanders RB3/4, Alshon Jeffery WR2, Nelson Agholor WR5, Mack Hollins WR5, Zach Ertz TE1, Dallas Goedert TE2

Carson Wentz has had to overcome a lot of adversity this season due to his teammates’ injuries, but he’s being rewarded with one of the worst pass defenses this week. Vegas expects the Eagles to shred the Jets, who have been the worst at stopping 20+ yard passes based on per game averages. Wentz is an upside QB1. … The Jets haven’t been much better limiting running backs, but the Eagles’ three-back committee is a headache. Last week, Jordan Howard found the end zone three times, and he’s probably going to be the goal-line back moving forward. Through four weeks, Howard has four inside-the-five carries to Miles Sanders’ two. (Note: Red zone rush attempts don’t matter any more than an attempt at the 50-yard line. The touchdown rate starts climbing once a team is inside-the-ten and particularly inside-the-five.) Because of Howard’s goal-line role and because of the 13-point spread, Howard is an RB2/3. … Rookie Miles Sanders is 88th out of 91 qualifiers in PFF’s rushing grade. He’s struggling, and he only has six receptions to make matters worse. Perhaps Sanders gets going between the 20s, but he’s not overly exciting at the moment, even in this plus matchup. Sanders is an RB3/4 who I’d rather leave on the bench than start in the flex.

DeSean Jackson remained sidelined at practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so it’ll likely be Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, and Mack Hollins at receiver once again. The Jets’ defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers and has averaged the most 20+ yard passes in the NFL. This is a matchup to exploit. Jeffery is obviously the primary beneficiary of that, especially since he saw WR2 usage in his first game back from an injury last Thursday. With extra days to recover, Jeffery should be more than ready to take on CBs Darryl Roberts and Nate Hairston, who both are 20+ pounds lighter than Alshon. I’m firing him up as an upside WR2. … Nelson Agholor has struggled with drops and his targets last week dropped to just one because of it. With Jeffery back in the mix, Agholor is a zero-floor WR5, though there is still some upside in this matchup. The same can be said for deep threat Mack Hollins. … I’m inclined to ignore the Jets’ high ranking against tight ends and way more inclined to focus on his rock-solid target projection. 7-12 targets and a 28.25-point team total are more than enough to lock Ertz inside the top-four at the position as a second-tier TE.

4. Texans (27, -5) vs. ATL

Update: Kenny Stills is unlikely to play. Keke Coutee is a dart throw option, though I think more targets will slide over to Nuk and Fuller.

Forecast: Deshaun Watson QB1, Carlos Hyde RB2/3, Duke Johnson RB4, DeAndre Hopkins WR1, Will Fuller WR3, Keke Coutee WR5, Jordan Akins TE2/3

Deshaun Watson just missed a couple of deep throws last week. If he hits those, Watson is sitting inside the top-five at the position. This is a matchup where Watson should earn those yards and touchdowns back. The Falcons’ defense is below-average in adjusted sack rate, passing DVOA, and stopping fantasy quarterbacks in general. With Vegas projecting the Texans to score 27 points and with the Falcons’ offense running plays at the fifth-fastest rate, Watson is a high-ceiling, high-floor QB1. … Duke Johnson has been out-carried by Carlos Hyde (52 to 23) and only has eight receptions, so Johnson is just a bench option right now despite having the best elusive rating in the NFL per PFF. … Carlos Hyde’s 13.0 carries per game and his goal-line role keep him in the mix as a flex option. This week’s matchup isn’t fantastic -- the Falcons are above-average in rushing DVOA -- but game script is on Hyde’s side as home favorites with the fourth-highest team total. Hyde is also 10th in PFF’s rushing grade for what it’s worth.

Limited by an elite CB gauntlet to start the season, DeAndre Hopkins finally gets a game where he can have a true ceiling. The Falcons have the 30th-ranked passing DVOA against opposing WR1s. Let’s just say there’s not a Jalen Ramsey, Casey Hayward, or James Bradberry in Atlanta right now. This is a classic “get right” home game where Hopkins breaks off chunk gain after chunk gain. Hopkins is my WR1 overall this week. … Will Fuller is 12th in air yards. The usage is there. The talent is there. It’s just a matter of time before Fuller is in the end zone off a 50-yard bomb from DeShaun. With fellow deep threat WR Kenny Stills (hamstring) likely out, Fuller should be more of a primary read, and the Falcons’ bottom 20th percentile pass rush shouldn’t prevent Watson from taking deep shots this week. Fuller is a boom-or-bust WR3. … If Kenny Stills is out, then Keke Coutee will be a near full-time player. Coutee will be the best bet for underneath targets, but Coutee only saw 6.0 targets last year when Hopkins and Fuller played. Coutee is a WR5. … Jordan Akins had two random touchdowns in Week 3, but he has three or fewer targets each week and Hopkins’ expected blowup spot is bad news for Akins. He’s a zero-floor TE2/3 attached to an explosive offense.

5. Bengals (25.5, -3.5) vs. ARI

Forecast: Andy Dalton QB1/2, Joe Mixon RB2, Giovani Bernard RB4, Tyler Boyd WR1/2, Auden Tate WR3/4, Tyler Eifert TE2, C.J. Uzomah TE2

It’s decision time here. The Cardinals’ defense is non-existent, but so is the Bengals’ injury-filled offense. Vegas believes the Bengals’ offense will win this battle of bottom feeders, and I’m inclined to agree, even if it’s volume-based, not skill-based. In terms of situation-neutral pace, this is the fastest-paced game of the week with the Cardinals running the most plays per minute and the Bengals running the 12th-most. Andy Dalton is an upside QB1/2 with Arizona coming across the country for an early kick-off. … Joe Mixon has been out-scored in fantasy by both Bucs’ running backs. It’s that bad right now, but Mixon will benefit from extra offensive plays this week and he has at least seen 15 carries in each of the last two weeks. The Cardinals’ run defense is in the bottom 25th percentile per DVOA, so he has literally everything working in his favor. Mixon has upside as an RB2.

With John Ross on injured reserve and with A.J. Green still rehabbing, Tyler Boyd is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Cincy. Boyd enters a dream home matchup with the fourth-most targets and sixth-most receptions in the NFL. An elevated team total (25.5) gives Boyd slightly better odds for a touchdown, too. Cardinals slot CB Trumaine Brock has allowed 12.3 yards per target in the slot this season. Boyd is on the WR1/2 borderline with everything working in his favor here. … 2018 seventh-rounder Auden Tate has flex-worthy usage over the last two weeks and ran a route on 94% of Bengals’ dropbacks last week. Even if you have zero faith in Tate the player, this is a spot to bet on usage and matchup. Tate is an upside WR3/4. … The Cardinals have allowed 66 more yards and three more touchdowns to tight ends than the second-worst defense against the position. It’s a massive funnel and it cost S D.J. Swearinger his job this week. But Tyler Eifert only has a 10% share of targets and is running a route on just 46% of Bengals’ dropbacks. Eifert is a matchup-based TE1/2 with a wide range of outcomes.



6. Vikings (25.25, -5.5) @ NYG

Update: Stefon Diggs is expected to play. He's a boom-or-bust WR3.

Forecast: Kirk Cousins QB2/3, Dalvin Cook RB1, Alexander Mattison RB4, Adam Thielen WR2, Stefon Diggs WR3

Kirk Cousins isn’t good and the Vikings are really establishing the run. Cousins doesn’t check boxes with efficiency or volume, but he does get a great matchup against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The squeaky wheel narrative is in play after the passing offense has been flamed by fans, the media, and Vikings’ players, but I’m not putting much faith into Cousins, especially if Stefon Diggs says, “I’m out”. Cousins is a QB2/3 even with the sixth-highest team total. … Dalvin Cook is worth getting excited about. He’s second in yards and tied for first with five touchdowns. The Giants’ defense sits directly in the middle against the run and Cook saw eight targets when the Vikings trailed last week, so there’s nothing to worry about here. Cook is a top-five play just about every week. … This is a reminder to make sure Alexander Mattison is rostered in your league.

Stefon Diggs threw his controller at the TV this week and is on the verge of rage quitting on his team (and I really don’t blame him after watching Kirk Cousins this season). It’s still most likely that Diggs plays, however, and the matchups for him and Adam Thielen are dreamy. Giants rookie CB Deandre Baker has allowed the second-most yards allowed per coverage snap per PFF, and Janoris Jenkins is not far behind (4th-most). Volume is still a concern, but this is a game for the receivers to have a ceiling. Thielen is a WR2, while Diggs is a boom-or-bust WR3. We’ll learn a lot about this team this week. Hopefully they manufacture short-area targets to both receivers. … Kyle Rudolph is off the radar after back-to-back one-catch games.

7. Saints (25.25, -3) vs. TB

Forecast: Teddy Bridgewater QB2, Alvin Kamara RB1, Latavius Murray RB4, Michael Thomas WR1/2, Ted Ginn WR5, Jared Cook TE2

Teddy Bridgewater is relying on check-downs and his teammates to win ball-control games. That may have some success in real-life football at times, but that’s not good for fantasy. Bridgewater’s ceiling with the lowest intended air yards in the NFL keeps him on the QB2/3 radar even against a vulnerable Bucs’ secondary. … The Bucs’ run defense is first in DVOA and PFF grade, but Alvin Kamara is too good (he’s avoided the most tackles per carry per PFF) and his volume is too high (15-25 weekly touches) to drop outside of the top-six at the position. I’m just not betting on a ceiling game here. … Latavius Murray is off the radar until Brees returns.

Michael Thomas’ usage has plummeted without Drew Brees. He’s not being targeted downfield and the Saints’ offense isn’t passing it enough for Thomas to have his 2018 floor and ceiling. The good news is the matchup. The Bucs’ defense is in the bottom 20th percentile against fantasy receivers. I’m hoping Thomas plays more slot receiver this week -- he’s at 25% this year -- because Bucs slot CB M.J. Stewart has allowed the most yards in the slot (235) per PFF. The matchup and his talent keep Thomas on the WR1/2. … Ted Ginn is the No. 2, but he has unstartable usage with Bridgewater. His best bet to have a 10.0 PPR-point game is getting deep against a Bucs’ secondary that is in the bottom 20th percentile at stopping 20+ yard passes. … Jared Cook has fallen into TE2 territory, but the Bucs’ defense is the second-worst at stopping fantasy tight ends so far.

8. Chargers (25.25, -6) vs. DEN

Update: Mike Williams is expected to play, as expected.

Forecast: Philip Rivers QB1/2, Austin Ekeler RB1/2, Melvin Gordon RB2/3, Keenan Allen WR1, Mike Williams WR3

Philip Rivers has still been a strong QB1/2 despite all the chaos in Los Angeles, and he’s starting to get his offensive weapons back. The Broncos’ defense hasn’t been nearly as efficient as it was -- bottom 20th percentile in passing DVOA, rushing DVOA, and adjusted sack rate -- but both teams are well below-average in offensive plays per minute. Volume is a concern, but Rivers should be efficient enough to finish around the top-12 at the position this week. … Melvin Gordon was active but didn’t play in Week 4. Coach Anthony Lynn said MGIII will actually play this week, which makes sense given the division rival, but I’m betting on Gordon being eased into action. Austin Ekeler was too good in Gordon’s absence for the Bolts to rush Gordon into his previous bellcow role. In fact, I’m guessing Ekeler -- who has avoided the most tackles on receptions among not just running backs but all NFL players -- will out-touch and out-snap Gordon this week, although Gordon is my favorite for goal-line touches. The matchup against a defense that’s filled with injuries is something to attack, so Ekeler is an RB1/2 while Gordon is a boom-or-bust RB2/3 with unpredictable usage.

Keenan Allen was a victim of game script and bad luck last week. Otherwise, he’s been the best fantasy receiver through four weeks. Broncos elite CB Chris Harris traveled with Allen last year, so the matchup isn’t ideal, but Allen should still see 8-12 targets. Allen is a WR1 with a lower ceiling and floor than usual. … Mike Williams (back) and Travis Benjamin (hip) returned to practice this week. Williams had boom-or-bust WR2/3 usage before missing last week’s game, and he should slide right back into that role for Week 5’s home matchup. Broncos outside CBs Duke Dawson and De'Vante Bausby aren’t players to lose sleep over, so Williams is a decent WR3.

9. 49ers (25, -3.5) vs. CLE

Forecast: Jimmy Garoppolo QB2, Matt Breida RB3/4, Jeff Wilson RB4, Raheem Mostert RB4, Tevin Coleman (questionable) RB4, Deebo Samuel WR5, Dante Pettis WR5, Marquise Goodwin WR5, George Kittle TE1

Jimmy Garoppolo needed the bye week to reset after some up-and-down individual performances, but he still enters Week 5 with an 8.8 YPA and 6.0% touchdown rate. His problem has been the 49ers’ second-lowest pass rate on neutral-script early downs, and this week’s matchup against the Browns isn’t a layup from a volume and efficiency standpoint. Garoppolo is a standard QB2 at home. … The 49ers have averaged the most running back fantasy points this season, but we are stuck with a massive committee. Tevin Coleman was limited in Thursday’s practice, so he might play on Monday Night Football. But that’s assuming he’s not a healthy scratch, something I’m not ruling out. Matt Breida has been rotating with Raheem Mostert between-the-20s before Jeff Wilson comes in and scores the goal-line touchdowns. It’s a mess overall. If forced to rank these backs, I’d go Breida, Wilson, Mostert, Coleman.

There’s not a 49ers receiver getting bankable volume, but the Browns are likely to be without CBs Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams once again after they both missed Thursday’s practice. Browns CB T.J. Carrie has allowed the 5th-most yards per coverage snap as their replacement. I’m guessing the 49ers spent the bye week focusing on their youngest receivers, so rookie WR Deebo Samuel and second-year WR Dante Pettis may get more involved, but they remain WR5s at best.

George Kittle was heavily involved when the 49ers were trailing last year (see above), and the 49ers haven’t been trailing in 2019. That’s why Kittle is on pace for 112 targets this season after seeing 136 in 2018. As 3.5-point favorites, Kittle isn’t expected to be peppered with targets, but he is due for some positive YPT and touchdown regression. Kittle is a second-tier TE1.



10. Cowboys (24.5, -3.5) vs. GB

Forecast: Dak Prescott QB1/2, Ezekiel Elliott RB1, Amari Cooper WR1/2, Michael Gallup WR4, Randall Cobb WR5, Jason Witten TE2

Dak Prescott was slowed down last week in New Orleans, and he’ll likely be playing without LT Tyron Smith this week. Prescott also faces the Packers’ pass defense, who has been amongst the best in coverage and pressure on the quarterback. The Cowboys’ middling 24.5-point team total makes Prescott a low-end QB1, not the elite QB1 he was to start the season. … As you can see from the chart above, the Packers’ defense has been a major run funnel in 2019. That sets up beautifully for Ezekiel Elliott, who is fully back to his elite workload as a runner and receiver. This is a Zeke week.

Amari Cooper has WR1 efficiency with Dak Prescott and has WR1/2 usage in three of the first four weeks, but he’ll be tested this week with Packers CBs Jaire Alexander and Kevin King (questionable), especially since the ‘Boys are without LT Tyron Smith. Cooper has to be dropped in the rankings given the situation, but I can’t drop him below the WR1/2 range. … Michael Gallup is expected to play, but he’s a player I’d like to leave on my bench since he’s coming off a somewhat serious knee injury only to face a top CB duo. Gallup could still pop since he had WR2/3 usage in Weeks 1 and 2, however. … Randall Cobb has just one week with WR3/4 usage, so he’s off the radar in a bad matchup. … Jason Witten doesn’t have enough usage to graduate from the touchdown-dependent TE2 mix.