Simon says Tim Pawlenty and the rest of the GOP field lack the dynamism to beat Obama. | AP photo The Republican freak show

Question: If Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney were on a sinking ship, who would be saved?

Answer: America.


Cruel. Very cruel. But it may set the tone for the 2012 race. The last time a Democratic president ran for reelection was Bill Clinton in 1996. And the press was careful to portray Bob Dole as a credible opponent.

He was not. Though an often nice guy and a highly skilled legislator, he was a disaster on the stump, and Clinton crushed him in a three-way race.

The media will be a little more savvy about campaign skills this time around. Tim Pawlenty, who announced for the Republican presidential nomination on Monday, has already said, “I’m not running for entertainer in chief.”

It is not a new line. But it is an ominous one. Presidential candidates who don’t think they have to get and hold the attention of voters in a positive way — call it entertainment if you want — are probably doomed.

No matter how much Pawlenty tailors his message to attract conservative and tea party Republicans, he may lack the dynamism to beat a fired-up-and-ready-to-go Barack Obama in the general election. It is said that Pawlenty once gave a fireside chat and the fire went out.

While Pawlenty was announcing from Des Moines on Monday, CNN was running videotape of Obama drinking a Guinness in Ireland, MSNBC was running a piece on tattoo artists and even Fox cut away from Pawlenty after a short while. A few minutes later, all three cable networks gave live coverage to every minute of Obama’s rip-roaring speech from Dublin.

That’s what being an incumbent president can do for you.

Take a look at these two fields. The first is Republicans who are not running in 2012: Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee, Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, John Thune and Donald Trump.

Now take a look at the Republicans who are running or getting ready to run: Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Buddy Roemer, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

Which is the stronger field? I have not identified any of these guys by the offices they hold or have held, because if you have to ask yourself “Who is that guy?” then it shows you why the Republicans are at a disadvantage. Nobody has to ask who Obama is, and that is why he doesn’t have to spend a penny of his campaign funds on TV commercials introducing himself to the American people.

Two other Republicans might still declare for the nomination: Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann. If they ran as a ticket, they would be the most dynamic — and unpredictable — duo either party could offer. Forgive me if I would consider it a reporter’s dream ticket, but I would be the first in line for that campaign plane.

The Republicans who have decided not to run in 2012 have done so for a variety of reasons: personal, strategic, financial. But some have done so for one reason: They doubt any Republican can beat Obama in 2012, and they would rather wait for an open seat in 2016.

They may be wrong. At one point, George H.W. Bush looked unbeatable for reelection in 1992, but a dynamic, almost mesmerizing, campaigner, Clinton, beat him.

Who is the dynamic, almost mesmerizing, campaigner among the Republicans this time?

Well, that’s the problem. The Republicans often do not look for campaign skills when they choose a nominee. They are a party of hierarchy. “We typically look for the next person in line,” Tom Rath, a top Republican operative from New Hampshire, once told me. “We want to know: Whose turn is it?”

And if you look at the list of recent Republican nominees, you realize he is right: John McCain in 2008, George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996 were all the next guys in line. They had “earned” their place in the party hierarchy. (Or, in the case of George W. Bush, his father had earned it for him.) Even Ronald Reagan lost the nomination to Gerald Ford in 1976, because Reagan was not the next guy in line. By 1980, Reagan was.

The reason the Republican race for the nomination appears chaotic is that there is no logical next guy (or woman) in line. Romney might come closest, but many question his conservative Republican bona fides.

So it is a scramble. Eugene Robinson of The Washington Post described a recent Republican debate as being like the bar scene in “Star Wars.” To me, it resembled a freak show: There was the two-headed man over there and next to him was the guy who bites the heads off chickens.

Is there a real nominee in this field? Someone who can win over the party in the primaries and the nation in the general?

I know some believe that Obama is doomed because the economy is bad. And they believe the presidency, therefore, will be dumped in the Republicans’ lap in 2012.

They are kidding themselves. The Republicans are up against a real campaigner, and if they want his job, they are going to have to step their game way up and take it from him.

Roger Simon is POLITICO’s chief political columnist.