Earlier this month, Imran Kurt, a 22-year-old university student and activist, was preparing to take part in a peace rally in Ankara when an explosion sent a tremor through the group. Seconds later, another hit.

“When I raised my head, I saw bodies on the floor,” says Kurt. “Our bodies were covered in blood and pieces of flesh and we ran away for 50 metres. Then I ran back to look for my mother who was with me.” She was alive, inspecting the bodies around her, looking to see if her son was among those who perished. “When she saw me she started crying,” he says.



On the eve of snap elections taking place on Sunday, banners throughout Istanbul are emblazoned with the professorial face of the prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, and the slogan istikrar (stability). Yet the last few months of rule by the Justice and Development party (AKP) have been anything but stable, with the country suffering bouts of violence and renewed tensions with Kurdish insurgents that could spell more civil conflict in coming months.

Security has emerged as a key flashpoint in the elections, with AKP officials arguing a vote for them means a vote for stability and security. Their opponents, on the other hand, argue that the AKP has failed to protect the country and the opposition from terrorism and that militancy in the country has been nourished by its policy of backing rebels in neighbouring Syria and offering them refuge while failing to adequately defend the border.

Prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu on the campaign trail on Saturday. Photograph: Adem Altan/AFP/Getty Images

“This is precisely the dilemma of this election,” says Ahmet Hakan, a television host and prominent columnist in the mainstream daily Hurriyet.

Parliamentary elections in June whittled away at the AKP’s majority, forcing it to enter negotiations to form a coalition government with its opponents, but the failure of the talks contributed to political uncertainty. In August, the Turkish president and AKP founder, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, called snap elections.

Meanwhile, a series of terrorist attacks have targeted the opposition – a bombing in Diyarbakir struck at a rally for supporters of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic party (HDP) in June, moments before the charismatic party leader Selahattin Demirtas was scheduled to speak. A suicide bombing against a gathering of mostly Kurdish activists in the border town of Suruç prompted small-scale violence and, in turn, a crackdown against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), a campaign that risked inflaming the Kurdish insurgency and increasing violence in the country’s east.

A man crosses a street under the flag of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s party (CHP), in Istanbul. Photograph: Hussein Malla/AP

And then came the double suicide bombing in Ankara on 10 October, which Kurt and his mother survived but which killed dozens of others. It was the worst terrorist attack in Turkey’s history. “I can’t say I’m good, psychologically,” says Kurt. “Even on social media I still see my comrades who died and I see them when I listen to music or when I read a poem.”

Turkish experts say the formation of a coalition government in the aftermath of Sunday’s elections could help reduce tensions and polarisation in the country. But some worry that the AKP may seek yet another election if they believe a single-party government is within reach.

Selahattin Demirtas, co-leader of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP), attends a gathering in Istanbul on the eve of the country’s general election. Photograph: Yasin Akgul/AFP/Getty Images

“Security is the most urgent issue now, it feeds him [Erdogan],” says Can Dundar, editor-in-chief of the dissident newspaper Cumhuriyet. “People ask for an authority to control the chaos. I guess he trusts that psychology. He waits for people to say ‘come and save us’. Another single party government would be a disaster.”

Observers say a third round of elections would be destabilising for the country’s security and economy, extending political uncertainty. Turkey has been through an extended election cycle since local elections in March 2014, which were followed by a presidential election in August, then the first parliamentary polls in June this year.

A bullet-ridden house damaged during a police operation to arrest militants in Diyarbakir, in Turkey’s predominantly Kurdish southeast. Photograph: Lefteris Pitarakis/AP

AKP supporters charge that the instability is a consequence of the prospect that the party, which bills itself as being strong on counter-terrorism, may lose its dominance over government. They say the attacks that have occurred are plots aimed at embarrassing the party and striking at its popularity.

“I think these attacks aim to prevent AKP from coming to power as a one-party government again,” says Fatima, a 42-year-old longtime party volunteer at an election tent in Istanbul. “It is a trap against us.”

Kurt, however, says he will vote for the HDP and blames the government for the instability in the country. Many members of the opposition have accused the government of failing to protect the demonstrators at the peace rally and police of assaulting those who came to help the wounded.

“There was no stability in Turkey,” he says. “They have been inside the state for 13 years, strengthening their own position. Their only aim is to hold on to power. That is their stability.”

