Feb 2, 2014

“The international political intervention should target not [Syria's ruling] Baath [Party] but the actors whose proxy war Baath is fighting,” Taha Ozhan of Turkey’s SETA think-tank wrote on Jan. 25, pointing to Russia and Iran. As the chairman of SETA (Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research) — the main civic mouthpiece of Turkey’s deadlocked Syria policy — penned those lines, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was preparing to go to Tehran.

It was a slapdash article reflecting a grudge toward Russia and Iran for fending off regime change in Syria. Four days later, Erdogan was on a completely different track when he told his hosts that he felt like he was at his "second home" in Tehran.

The Turkey-Iran relationship has always been two-sided, but the Syrian crisis upset the balance, threatening the positive side. Erdogan was in Tehran to bolster that side. Back to a “win-win” mode, he set a target of $30 billion in bilateral trade for 2015. In 2013, the trade volume dropped to $13.5 billion from $21.8 billion the previous year. The two sides signed a preferential trade agreement after a decade of negotiations. Under the deal, Turkey will reduce tariffs on certain agricultural imports from Iran, while Iran will do the same for certain industrial goods from Turkey. The two countries agreed also on a road map of enhanced cooperation in commerce, investment, transportation, customs, standardization and transport. Most important, they agreed to establish a High-Level Cooperation Council. The signing of the related accord and the first joint cabinet meeting of the two governments will take place during Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to Ankara, expected to take place later this month. However, joint cabinet meetings that Turkey had launched earlier with Iraq and Syria have been forgotten amid turmoil in its regional ties.

Conditional rapprochement on Syria

The main focus of interest during Erdogan’s Tehran visit was the prospect of rapprochement on Syria. Before the cameras, Erdogan and Rouhani largely avoided the Syrian issue, leading to suggestions that the disagreement persisted. Asked whether any ground for cooperation had been found, an official from Erdogan’s entourage told Al-Monitor, “The discussions on the Syrian crisis can be termed as an exchange of views rather than rapprochement.” Some Iranians, like parliament member Emir Huceste, may think that Erdogan has recognized he erred on Syria, but to say that Turkey has come around to the Iranian stance would be a hasty conclusion. Nonetheless, Turkey has certainly shifted to a new track, where it may have to cross paths with Iran at some point.