Explaining Trump: The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities

From:dcorps@democracycorps.com To: podesta@law.georgetown.edu Date: 2016-02-29 14:40 Subject: Explaining Trump: The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities

------------------------------------------------------------ http://gqrr.comhttp//www.democracycorps.com/?ct=t%28RPP+websurvey+release%29 Explaining Trump: The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities As the Republican Party grapples with a fateful decision about its nominee for president, this new Democracy Corps survey of Republican voters shows the GOP is headed towards a train-wreck that will change our politics. That may seem like hyperbole, but this one of kind survey is an eye opening glimpse into what is really happening inside one of our major national parties. When you see the results of this survey you will believe that Donald Trump either has an amazing antenna for the mood of the party or a great pollster. It is clear from this study that there is an explosive civil war inside the GOP and it can move significant numbers of voters out of the Republican camp – and this poll begins to show how. * Trump is poised to win because his intense opposition to Obama Democrats and anti-immigration views gives him a Tea Party and working class base, and because he competes among Evangelicals and Moderates. Cruz has faltered because Observant Catholics don’t like him; Rubio is faltering because his hard pro-life stance blocks gains with Moderates, as it did for Jeb Bush. * What unites and animates today’s Republican Party are two things: the fight against Obama-Democratic governance and the insistence that the party get serious about fighting growing immigration: + They are fundamentally opposed to Clinton, Obama, Obamacare and the Democrats they believe are socialists that threaten the Constitution; + They are opposed to illegal immigration and the growing foreign presence in a more racially diverse America. Thus, they deny facts and evidence about net-migration across the U.S.-Mexico border and demand their presidential candidate fight to get immigration under control; + They also favor a strong military and oppose regulation, but those preferences are not what is motivating today’s Republicans. * The GOP’s problems begin the Moderates who form 31 percent of the base. They are heavily college-educated and accept the sexual revolution. They believe most abortions should be legal and they dislike the pro-life groups. They want the Republican nominee to stop fighting gay marriage. + Their distinct attitudes are the reason why the GOP establishment has not been able to consolidate their votes behind any candidate. + Their attitudes create a vast opening for Democrats in the general election. * The GOP is further endangered by a huge crack that runs right down the middle of the GOP separating the Tea Party and Evangelical voters (47 percent) from the Moderates and Observant Catholics (45 percent). These are the issues that fracture the party: + The Moderate/Observant Catholic bloc believes government should help with health care and the free market needs regulation. Not the Tea Party/Evangelical bloc. + The Moderate led bloc believes the facts and scientific consensus about climate change. Not the Tea Party led bloc. + The Moderate led bloc is anti-NRA, not the Tea Party led bloc. * The Trump race in particular already pushes 20 of Republicans to say they are uncertain what they will do in the general election against Hillary Clinton, including one quarter of the Catholics and one third of the moderates. The party is poised to shed voters. After attacks and messages, the Trump vote drops 14 points among the Catholics and among the Moderates, the Trump margin against Clinton drops 9 points. * The strongest attacks on Trump are that he is an ego-maniac that is for himself, not the country; he is disrespectful of women; he can’t be trusted with nuclear weapons; he is intolerant towards immigrants; and he denies America a clean energy future. * The strongest Democratic messages that shift the Tea Party, Observant Catholics and Moderate voters away from Trump make the case for long-term investment in modernizing America; for reforming corporate governance so CEOs and corporations focus on investing in their companies and employees, not stock prices; and for an end to fighting to turn back the clock on social issues so we can address the country’s problems. The GOP civil war has consequences and this poll gives people the tools they need to plan their strategy and campaigns. READ THE FULL MEMO (http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1025/Dcor_RPP_Memo_2.29.2016_FOR%20RELEASE.pdf?ct=t%28RPP+websurvey+release%29) _________________ Democracy Corps is an independent, non-profit organization dedicated to making the government of the United States more responsive to the American people. It was founded in 1999 by James Carville and Stanley Greenberg. Democracy Corps provides public opinion research and strategic advice to those dedicated to a more responsive Congress and Presidency. 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