Bernie Sanders is in the top tier of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, typically running behind only former Vice President Joe Biden in national polls.

But the democratic socialist from Vermont could be in trouble -- a lot of trouble.

Sanders won 23 states and territories in the race for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. But more than half of those states held caucuses, not primaries. Caucuses -- which typically involve voters congregating in groups on the night of the election, declaring their allegiance to the room and seeking to bring others into the fold -- tend to reward drum-beat ideologues like Sanders more than candidates making gauzier “leadership” pitches.

Which is why the new Monmouth University poll out of Iowa, a caucus state which holds the first vote in the process, should unnerve Sanders and his supporters.

Only 9 percent of respondents likely to participate in the Iowa caucuses said the 77-year-old Vermonter was their candidate, down from 16 percent in April.

If Bernie Sanders can’t compete in Iowa, Democratic voters and progressive activists across the country might wonder, where can he compete?

Biden leads the Iowa poll with 28 percent. The 76-year-old lifelong politician has premised his campaign on his supposed ability to beat President Donald Trump. Biden gave a blistering speech in Iowa on Wednesday, in which he said the president “encourages and emboldens” white supremacy and violence. He insisted the 2020 election will be a battle for “the soul of the nation.”

The Monmouth poll also found that “a majority of likely caucusgoers want a public option rather than a ‘Medicare for All’-type health-care system.” Biden has made a public option, which would compete with rather than replace private health insurance, a hallmark of his campaign. Sanders is the foremost advocate of Medicare for all.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, another Medicare-for-All proponent, placed second in the poll, with 19 percent support. Sen. Kamala Harris of California came in at 11 percent and South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg stands at 8 percent, just behind Sanders.

The Monmouth poll’s margin for error is 4.9 percent. Check out the poll and its methodology.

-- Douglas Perry

@douglasmperry

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