The agency was of the opinion that if the Nizam was overthrown, Hyderabad would fall into the hands of communists

The United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) kept a hawk’s eye on developments in Hyderabad before and after the Dominion of India dealt with the princely State when the latter refused to accede to it in September 1948.

Documents from the time, declassified, reveal rising tensions between the Dominion of India and the State of Hyderabad amidst accusations of violations of Standstill Agreement signed by the two entities. During the week ending May 19, 1948, the Nizam was issued an ultimatum to stop border raids by May 24 or see his State stormed by Indian troops, a report sent by the Near East/African Branch of CIA notes. It also highlights the American concern that the overthrow of Nizam could see Hyderabad fall into the hands of communists.

Though a peaceful settlement of the dispute between the two entities had evaded after ten months of accession negotiations, the CIA’s men opined an open and declared war was not expected in its report for the week ending June 16, 1948.

For the CIA, it appeared that “India would hesitate to divert troops from Kashmir. If a plebiscite was then held, accession could be voted down,” the report states.

During the week ending July 21, the CIA reported that a “forced solution” to Hyderabad problem is threatened by India officials who accused Pakistan of illegally transporting arms to Hyderabad.

The CIA also cited neutral observers who opined the arms did not come from Pakistan.

Tensions escalated with the economic blockade imposed by the dominion and raids into India territory from Hyderabad.

After skirmishes between Hyderabad and Indian forces, Prime Minister Nehru had stated publicly by the end of following week that

“India may need to initiate military action unless Hyderabad accedes. The Nizam had then indicated that he would refer the dispute to the United Nations,” CIA notes in its report.

The CIA notes that the dispute reached a “breaking point” in August. In its report for the week ending August 11, the Agency notes that Nizam’s conciliatory gestures prove no avail as it appears to the Indian dominion that he is controlled by extremist elements. Just a week ago, the Nizam had sent an emissary to New Delhi. Indian Home Minister Sardar Vallabhai Patel had recommended evacuation of British nationals from Hyderabad as conflict looked imminent.

During this time, the CIA notes concerns of communal violence in India and Pakistan as a consequence of military action against Hyderabad.

In its key report for the week ending September 15, the CIA, with a map showing the planned Indian offensive, states that “Indian side is well-prepared and has committed around 20,000 to 25,000 troops.”

During this time, Indian Army’s 1st Armoured Division was advancing from Sholapur and other units were cordoning Hyderabad with ease in the face of little resistance.

The CIA suspected the Nizam was using his force to garrison Hyderabad and Secunderabad. The agency also reported that the 50,000 to 100,000 Razakars cannot prevent the march of Indian troops.