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Now a hurricane, Michael is rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico, setting up a dangerous strike on the Southeast by mid-week.

The 13th named storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane system was some 1,400 miles away from Philadelphia late Monday, but weather watchers say the newly minted hurricane could bring flooding to New Jersey by the weekend.

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Michael could rush past New Jersey just as a strong cold front settles in over the eastern U.S. with its own saturating rains.

"As of right now, it looks like the primary threat (from Michael) is going to be heavy rainfall," said Alex Staarmann, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly. "Given that we’ve been so wet any sort of excessive rain would mean flooding and flash flooding across New Jersey."

Whether Michael's trajectory bends farther north toward New Jersey or hews closer to the National Hurricane Center's best guess, which takes Michael back out to sea near the North Carolina and Virginia border, is impossible to know at this point.

Michael is thrashing western Cuba Monday and expected to make landfall near Panama City, Florida, sometime late Wednesday.

"There is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall," reads this morning's guidance from the NHC.

The storm was producing sustained winds of 75 mph, according to the latest readings. A Category 3 hurricane, which is considered a major hurricane, has sustained winds of more than 110 mph.

Blustery winds, however, are not likely to be a serious threat to New Jersey, Staarman said. The storm's precipitation potential has their attention, he said.

The Weather Prediction Center is estimating between 1 and 4 inches of rain for New Jersey this week through the end of Friday. That could be revised depending on Michael's track.

The storm will be considerably weaker by the time it arrives in the Garden State, but it will still be an organized system — not remnants.

"By the time it were to pass over New Jersey — if it were to come that far north — it would be transitioning from a tropical cyclone to a post-tropical cyclone," Staarman said.

A cold front is inbound for the weekend and Staarmann said the weather service will be watching both Michael's path and it's potential to interact with Michael.

His advice?

"Keep an eye on (Michael) and be mindful that we’ll probably end up with some heavy rain," Staarman said. The video below shows what you should have on hand in case of a weather emergency.

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This week will feature a little but of both summer and fall.

Until the cold front arrives, the NWS expects highs to hover near 80 degrees for much of New Jersey. The mild temperatures will be accompanied by a sticky humidity.

But by Saturday and Sunday, daytime max temperatures will struggle to get past 60 degrees in the northern half of the state and not much warmer elsewhere.

"While it will feel more like early or mid-September rather than October much of the week, a strong cool front will be following on the heels of the heavy rain," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Carl Babinski in a post Monday. "So by the upcoming weekend, it will feel a lot more like fall in the Northeast."

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Check back at app.com every day to see if severe weather is headed your way.

Russ Zimmer: 732-557-5748, razimmer@app.com, @russzimmer