Anwar Gargash, United Arab Emirate’s minister of state for foreign affairs, is speaking the language of a person who might have finally begun to recognize the futility of his country’s four-year long effort to gain influence in the war-torn Yemen.

At a political conference in Abu Dhabi, Gargash said the Houthis will have a role to play in Yemen’s future and urged all sides to maintain momentum for a political resolution. This is inexplicable and beyond rare. Granting the Houthis, UAE’s principle adversary, the prospect of a political legitimacy could only have come after realizing that the unflinching rebels are unbeatable.

UAE has been a key ally of the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, which has been fighting the Iran-aligned Houthis tooth and nail for the past four years. Ironically, though, it has been a very outlandish alliance. Both the UAE and the Saudis have been in-fighting in the region as well, with both the countries harboring their own separate agendas. A case of a war-within-a-war.

Peace Deal Among Warring Allies

It’s quite curious and comical to see the two allies fighting against the enemy, the Houthis, and among themselves as well.

But on November 5, the Saudi Arabia-backed Government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) signed a peace deal to unify the two warring sides. As part of the process, UAE announced it was withdrawing its troops from Aden in South after handing the province to Saudi and Yemeni forces.

However, reports indicate the UAE will continue to covertly impose its will in south Yemen, undermining Hadi’s government, making the peace deal fragile. But what really happens for a fact will only be clear in the coming weeks and months. Right now, an effort is being made to present a united front between the Saudis and the Emiratis and many will look at it skeptically.

What also remains to be seen is whether the peace deal between the partners will lead to a more meaningful resolution to a larger problem. Unless the Houthis sit across the table and discuss a peaceful resolution, peace in Yemen will remain a pipe dream. Hadi and STC joining hands only resolves an internal family matter, so to speak.

But the story here is the statement made by Gargash and its larger implication.

When you cannot defeat the enemy, find an honorable way to leave the battlefield. Is that what he is attempting to convey on behalf of the UAE?

Houthis — An Obstinate Force

In 2018, the annual U.S. News & World Report ‘Power Rankings’ declared Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the 9th and 10th most powerful countries in the world. The kingdom and the UAE are both new-age armed forces and spend billions of dollars acquiring sophisticated weaponry, yet, despite enjoying superiority in wealth and weapons, they have failed miserably in putting down a group of guerrilla fighters.

The Saudis, especially, suffer from a lack of experience, a parasitic reliance on U.S. refueling and resupplying, and from a human capital issue. They fear casualty, so are basically fighting from the air. They also lack experience in warfare. They are rusty as they haven’t fought a war for the last three decades. Both the countries are poor in adapting to the conditions on the battlefield and have no experience in fighting a protracted war against rebels.

The Houthis, on the other hand, have been engaged in guerrilla-warfare for decades, it’s their profession. They have the grasp of the terrain they are fighting in, which can only be mastered through experience. It’s their backyard. They also love to fight, it’s what they thrive on. The rift between the Saudis and the UAE in Yemen has also served them well.

The doggedness of the Houthis can be best summarized by Abdullah Al-Mikhlafi, a field commander with anti-Houthi forces in the southern city of Taiz. He said: “We showered them with bullets and killed many of them. But they still continued their attacks.”

Exit Strategy?

The Saudis and the UAE have invested time and money in Yemen. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had claimed that the coalition would end the war swiftly, but it’s been four years now and there is no sign of an end. Reputations are at stake. So ending the conflict by conceding defeat can never be acceptable to the coalition.

By sounding like a statesman and suggesting Houthis also deserve to be part of Yemen’s future, Gargash is most likely attempting to set the grounds for a termination of war without appearing to have failed to win it.