For three years, the administration pushed ahead with aggressive, risky strategies to confront Iran, North Korea, China and several other adversaries, saying that applying severe economic pressure would compel these actors to submit to its demands.

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But now the president seems to have gone as far as he is willing to go, and his more hawkish national security officials have exhausted their ability to push him further. Realizing that, our adversaries are calling his bluffs and taking advantage.

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With Iran, Trump’s maximum-pressure campaign was sold as a means to bring the Iranian regime back to the table or to its knees. Tehran was to be deterred from fighting back by the threat of an overwhelming U.S. response. But that threat no longer seems to be working.

In September, Trump reversed himself at the last minute, refusing to strike back after Iran destroyed Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. His national security adviser, his secretary of state and his defense secretary had all urged him to act, but he declined. Iran took that as a signal to escalate, leading to 11 attacks on U.S. forces by Iranian proxies beginning in October.

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When the latest attack killed a U.S. contractor, Trump was compelled to retaliate, prompting Iran to retaliate in its own right by having its proxies lay siege to the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Trump’s response was to tweet out another threat. But Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper warned Thursday that “the game has changed” and that Iran “may be planning additional attacks” on U.S. forces.

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The United States will send more troops to the region, but there’s no sign of any real change in the administration’s strategy. There’s no Plan B. That is also the case with North Korea.

Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s message was clear: He considers the 18-month diplomatic effort with the United States to be dead. Kim withdrew his promise from Singapore to pause long-range missiles and nuclear weapons testing. In response, Trump denied that the situation has changed and said he believes Kim is a “man of his word.”

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Former national security adviser John Bolton told Axios last month that Trump is bluffing when he says North Korea won’t be permitted to finish developing the capability to hit the continental United States with a nuclear weapon. Bolton tweeted Wednesday that the United States should resume military exercises and make sure U.S. troops are “ready to fight tonight.”

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Officials tell me nothing like that will happen until or unless Trump decides to change his approach — and there’s no sign of any such decision.

If the Trump administration were to acknowledge that its policies are failing, it would be forced to choose between escalating and dialing back its objectives. With Iran and North Korea, the risks of escalation are real and dangerous. But folding has its own consequences.

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China has called Trump’s bluff on trade — and we’ll be seeing the consequences of that this month. As fits the pattern, Trump increased pressure until he wasn’t willing to go further. When it became clear Beijing would not yield outright, Trump cut what can only be called a small deal that falls way short of what he originally promised.

In Syria, Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops, twice, and reversed himself, twice, telegraphing his lack of commitment. Turkey called his bluff in the northeast, ignoring U.S. calls not to invade. Russia and the Assad regime ignored Trump’s tweet telling Russia, Syria and Iran to stop killing innocent civilians in Idlib.

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In Afghanistan, Trump has signaled for years that he wants to bring U.S. troops home, while demanding that his officials negotiate a deal with the Taliban that will keep the United States safe. But the Taliban have realized they need only wait rather than make real concessions or give up violence.

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Many will say Trump is more risk-averse now because he’s headed into an election and needs a strong economy and relative peace. But that ignores the past three years of tensions between Trump’s own desire to do less and his administration’s promises to achieve more.

“We’ve been pursuing a maximalist policy with no serious resource commitments,” a former senior Trump administration official told me. “Every time we pull our resources, we say our objective is the same. But foreign policy is not just sloganeering.”

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Trump and his team must acknowledge where his policies have failed and devise ways to reconcile their rhetoric with the realities we can all clearly see. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News he was “hopeful” that North Korea would reverse course, keep its commitments and “choose peace.” But hope is not a strategy.

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