In Dem poll, the case for challenging Paul Ryan

A prominent Democratic pollster is making the case that the party should invest in a challenge to Rep. Paul Ryan, the architect of the conservative House budget plan.

Pollster Paul Maslin's survey of 405 likely voters "shows that challenger Rob Zerban is well-positioned to give incumbent Paul Ryan the toughest fight of his career, with a very good chance to upset him," Maslin wrote in a memo.

A serious campaign against Ryan is a tempting prospects for Democrats hoping to restore the third-rail status of the major entitlement programs Ryan would dramatically alter; it would be a massively expensive effort on both sides in a state, Wisconsin, that has been the center of the ideological combat of the last year.

The survey found the district, the Wisconsin First, evenly divided on partisan issues -- both President Obama and Governor Scott Walker have even approval and disapproval ratings

According to the memo, the late October and early November poll found a deep dislike of Congress in general that is spilling over onto Ryan:

All of this background has weakened incumbent Paul Ryan, who used to enjoy electoral and image majorities well over 60%. Ryan’s favorable rating has declined to 54% positive, his job rating is 55% and his reelect is 54%—all this before the beginning of an active campaign against Ryan. When voters hear positive information about Rob Zerban and Paul Ryan, Ryan’s support weakens further to 52%. Rob Zerban’s description receives a better than 3 to 1 positive reaction. And, after respondents hear one additional paragraph description linking Ryan to the Republican leadership in Congress and describing his authorship of the House budget plan, his support falls below 50% and his favorable rating becomes like Obama’s and Walker’s—dead even at 46% positive and 46% negative. And... Rob Zerban trails Ryan by only six points after this very brief exposition of Ryan’s signature idea, 49-43%, with undecideds holding nearly unanimously negative views of Congress in general and more than 80% saying they have either a negative or neutral feeling toward Ryan at the end of the poll.

Now, this sort of poll is designed to show a path to victory -- it's not a simple snapshot of the moment. But the case -- "that with sufficient resources, Rob Zerban has an excellent opportunity to unseat Paul Ryan in what will undoubtedly be a very close race" -- is likely one that will appeal to Democrats an their allies.