In the first days of Boris Johnson’s premiership, big business representatives from trade associations and FTSE 100 companies were invited into Downing Street to meet the new regime.

These were not people who had wanted the UK to leave the European Union and they certainly were not fans of the no-deal Brexit being countenanced by the new prime minister.

Under David Cameron and Theresa May, those around the table had often been asked to make interventions endorsing the government's plans on Europe. Johnson’s team also wanted their support.

The message delivered by the PM’s EU sherpa David Frost and other senior advisers was clear: Number 10 is serious about its plan to leave the EU with or without a deal on October 31 — and business should prepare for that reality.

One senior Number 10 aide told the room “early things matter”, a statement those present perceived to mean Downing Street wanted them to back the government’s Brexit positions over the next few weeks, or at least not oppose them too vociferously. One business figure translated the message as: “We’re here for a while. If you want influence you can have it, if you don’t you can fuck off.”

“Many of us came out of the meeting really worried. What do you do? Do you get on board with no-deal? Or do you go silent?” the person said. Some attendees feared that the unsaid threat from Number 10 was that if businesses tried to disrupt Johnson’s Brexit policy, they would be frozen out of future government contracts.

The tetchy meeting is helpful in understanding the questions that have captured Westminster this week. Will Johnson’s government really pursue a no-deal Brexit “by any means necessary” if it cannot negotiate new terms with Brussels, as claimed by his chief aide Dominic Cummings? Will it really then call an election on November 1, with the UK one day into no-deal? To put it simply: Are they bluffing?

Part one of the theory that it’s all a big bluff says that Johnson, via Cummings, is trying to convince MPs that if they vote down his government in a no-confidence vote, they are guaranteed no-deal because the PM will refuse to resign, then watch the UK crash out of the EU by setting the date for an election after the October 31 Brexit date. Aggressive briefings to the media from Downing Street pushing these threats are therefore just a bluff to make sure MPs don’t vote down the government, the theory goes.

Part two of the bluff theory says Johnson’s rationale is that a narrative that no-deal cannot be stopped will then persuade the EU to offer new terms.

The sceptics say it is fantasy that Johnson would be able to stay in office after losing a confidence vote, or, if he did, then hold a snap election at the very moment the public is expecting him to be managing the immediate consequences of crashing out of the EU.