Conservative MPs against no-deal Brexit have the power to decide what happens next Boris Johnson’s actions have done him few favours with his internal party critics

During the EU referendum campaign, Vote Leave campaign director Dominic Cummings operated on the principle: “with a pirate, a pirate and-a-half, with a gentleman, a gentleman and-a-half”. The idea being that whoever you deal with, it’s a good idea to think as they do, but better.

With Cummings now installed in 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson’s most senior aide, we have been given an insight into what that approach means when it comes to taking on the anti no-deal alliance of MPs.

After a cross party group of MPs agreed on Monday to try and avert no-deal by seeking to cancel the party conference recess and pass a law in the Commons to block no-deal, Downing Street responded with a plan to suspend Parliament for five weeks.

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Boris Johnson will prorogue Parliament in around a fortnight’s time ahead of a new Queen’s Speech on 14 October. The official reason for this is that a Queen’s Speech – in which a government sets out its legislative agenda – is long overdue, and as a new government Johnson is only exercising his right.

While the current Parliamentary session is unusually lengthy, there is another motive to this. By proroguing Parliament, Boris Johnson is limiting the time and the number of opportunities available to anti no-deal MPs to stop no-deal before the 31st October. ‘Strategically, it’s an astonishingly good move,’ says a Whitehall source.

What next for the Conservative Party?

How will the anti no-deal MPs respond? What happens next rests heavily on how Conservative MPs against no-deal respond. Dominic Grieve has reiterated his promise to bring the government down to stop a no-deal Brexit if need be. However, the bulk of anti no-deal Tory MPs are reluctant to take this nuclear option. Not helping matters is the fact there is no consensus on whether a ‘national unity’ government could be formed in the aftermath to extend Article 50 and stop no-deal ahead of an inevitable general election.

What’s clear is that Johnson’s actions have done him few favours with his internal party critics. Those Tory MPs on the backbench sceptical of Johnson’s Brexit approach only feel further incentivised to try and stop no-deal when Parliament returns next week. Expect an emergency debate to be called on Tuesday and MPs to race against the clock to legislate against no-deal.

During the Cabinet conference call to discuss the proposal, while ministers were broadly supportive, questions were raised. Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith asked the Prime Minister to publish the legal advice, while Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd pressed for further insight into how Johnson plans to get a Brexit deal. Johnson told ministers he saw the chances of a Brexit deal as 50/50.

Downing Street’s uncompromising approach means the chances of an early general election continue to rise – whether it’s because MPs bring down the government with a no-confidence vote or a handful of Tory MPs quit, the government loses its majority and finds itself unable to pass a Queen’s Speech come October. Today’s antics should therefore also be viewed as a message to the public. If there is an election this year, Johnson will fight it on a ‘people vs Parliament’ footing – arguing that his government is the only one listening to those who want Brexit delivered.

Katy Balls is deputy political editor of the Spectator