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Half of NHS staff will be no better off under the new national pay deal according to Britain’s top financial experts.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies says the much celebrated pay rise announced by the Tories last week will only just keep pace with inflation for many.

The pay offer would see more than a million NHS staff including nurses, paramedics, porters and cleaners get increases of up to 29% over three years.

However the biggest group of workers - around 50% - will see an increase of just 6.5%.

Analysis carried out for the Mirror by the respected economic research think tank shows inflation is expected to be 6.2% over the same period.

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Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said: “The top of salary scales, which will affect more experienced nurses, for example, will rise by 6.5%.

“While even this sounds generous over three years it is likely to do little more than maintain the real value of earnings once inflation has been taken into account.

“Of course it follows several years of below inflation increases. So by 2020 or 2021 some nurses will still be earning less, in inflation adjusted terms, than were nurses doing the same job back in 2010.”

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The pay offer agreed between unions and Government negotiators is now being put to members to approve.

It comes after a public sector pay cap which has left health workers between 12% and 14% worse off since the Tories came to power.

The average worker is paid £2,000 a year less in real terms since 2010.

Lead union negotiator Sara Gorton, Unison’s head of health, said: “Of course a perfect settlement would see rises of over 12% across the board, to make up for the years of lost pay.

“But we don’t live in a perfect world.

“Staff at the top of their bands will have to decide whether to accept 6.5%, plus the additional lump sum, or leave the Government and the pay review body to come up with a figure - a route that has delivered increases of just 1% for the last few years.”

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After months of secret negotiations a pay offer was agreed to pay half of NHS staff at the top of their pay band a rise of 6.5% over three years.

The IFS told the Mirror the best measure of cost of living for staff is the Consumer Price Index from the Office for Budgetary Responsibility’s most recent monthly forecast.

Other measures of inflation would see NHS staff even worse off such as Retail Price Index estimated at 9.3% over the period.

By all measures NHS staff earning less in three years than they did when the Tories came to power in 2010.

Mr Johnson added: “Mind you the same is true for many private sector workers. Since 2008 NHS staff have done little worse than the majority of other workers.”

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He acknowledged lower paid NHS staff will get much more than 6.5% and those at the bottom of pay bands will rise by more than 20%.

Staff currently earn pay increases as they progress to different grades depending on their seniority within their pay band.

The other half of NHS staff will see rises of between 9% and 29% with more going to those at the bottom of each band to encourage new recruits.

The 29% rise will go to new recruits to a few specialist roles where there are desperate shortages including some nurse roles, physiotherapists, occupational therapists and radiographers.

The overall deal for staff on the main Agenda for Change contract is now being put to union members for them to approve.

Thirteen of the 14 NHS unions have recommended they accept the deal apart from the GMB which represents 30,000 workers.

The offer applies to medical staff including nurses, midwives, healthcare assistants and paramedics, but not doctors, dentists and some senior NHS managers.

If approved by union members then from April every worker employed directly by the NHS will earn at least £8.93 - 18p above the real living wage.

By 2021 salaries for the lowest paid 100,000 workers including porters, cleaners and caterers will be at least £18,005 after rises of between £2,300 and £2,600.

Danny Mortimer, chief executive of NHS Employers, which negotiated the offer on behalf of the Government, said: “The NHS asked the Government to end the pay cap of 1% for our staff and it has.

“In agreement with our unions we have developed a three-year package which recognises existing staff especially our lowest paid colleagues and improves starting salaries across our pay ranges to support recruitment and career development.”