Ron Paul's quest to be a force at the Republican national convention in Tampa faces a crucial test on Saturday as Nebraska holds a state meeting to select its delegates for Florida.

If Paul's campaign can snag a majority of Nebraska delegates it will give the libertarian-leaning Texan congressman effective control of five state delegations and the chance to be nominated for president from the convention floor at Tampa as well as a 15-minute speaking slot.

Despite not winning a single state at the ballot box during the Republican nomination race, Paul's campaign has waged a stealth "delegate strategy" whereby his supporters use often arcane party rules to get picked as delegates to Tampa. In some states, such as Iowa, that has given them control of the state delegation, despite not winning the state's caucus vote.

Now, with Nebraska being the last state to hold a convention to pick delegates for Tampa, Paul's campaign needs a win to give him just enough states to use the GOP's own rule book and perhaps force a floor vote against the winner of the nomination race, Mitt Romney.

Though no one – including Paul himself – expects Paul to be nominated, it would give the Texan and his political views a huge profile boost. Local Paul supporters in Nebraska were hopeful they could pull it off but offered no guarantees. "I don't know if we have enough delegates to have a majority. We have got a fair number and there are probably a few more that are friendly to Ron Paul. Our goal is a coalition and win that way," said Laura Ebke, chairwoman of the Republican Liberty Caucus in Nebraska and a Ron Paul delegate hopeful.

The coming Nebraska convention has been marred by squabbling between the Paul faction and Romney supporters keen to prevent a Paul win. At one stage party officials planned to hire private security guards for the convention. But recently things have calmed down, and Ebke and state chairman Mark Fahelson have issued a joint statement pledging no disruption. "It's … being cordial and neighborly. Practising the Golden Rule. When differences occur, shaking hands and agreeing to disagree in a respectful way," the statement said.

But elsewhere Paul's delegate strategy has roiled a Republican establishment keen to present a picture of party unity behind Romney. In Louisiana in June, when Paul's team won a majority of delegates from the state, scuffles broke out and several Paul supporters ended up with minor injuries and were arrested. In Massachusetts some delegates who support Paul were asked to sign legal affidavits that they would vote for Romney in Florida. When some refused they were booted off the delegation by state party officials.

Paul has as many as 500 supportive delegates

Even if Paul's campaign fails to win Nebraska his supporters are still headed to Tampa with the aim of trying to inject as much of their anti-government, anti-foreign intervention and anti-Federal Reserve policies into the debate as possible. Paul's team has publicly estimated that they may have as many as 500 supportive delegates at Tampa, even though many of them will be officially committed to voting for Romney. They are aiming to secure as high a profile as possible for Paul and try to inject his policies into the party policy platform.

Some of those policies, especially in the arena of foreign policy, are very different to those advocated by Romney and the prospect of such dissent no doubt unnerves many Republican officials. Unlike the often rowdy events of the past, modern political conventions in American politics are meant to be carefully stage-managed affairs designed to get behind the official candidate.

Yet Paul supporters are warning that any attempt to silence them might come at a disruptive price. Doug Wead, a long-time political consultant and senior adviser to the Ron Paul campaign, said: "The Romney team have been heavy-handed. The price they pay for that will not come from Dr Paul or his campaign. The price they pay will be with his supporters. ... The Ron Paul supporters are feeling very hurt."

However, Wead admitted that he was not sure Paul would get a high-profile speaking slot at Tampa. "I would be surprised if he gets one," he said.

Ron Paul supporters are almost certain to have a highly visible presence at the convention anyway. An event dubbed Liberty Unplugged is being planned for 24 and 25 August in Tampa. It is expected the event, which involve speeches and musical performances, will become a focus for Paul fans flocking to Florida. Meanwhile Paul himself is planning a free public rally at the University of South Florida on 26 August, the day before the Republican convention convenes.

Finally, another meeting called Paul Festival 2012 is expected to be held at the Florida State Fairgrounds on the same day with rallies and marches planned of Paul supporters.

Such a visible presence is certain to attract attention and confirm Paul's move from a fringe personality easily dismissed to a genuine political force. "They are very well organised. They are very impressive," said professor Tim Hagle, an expert on Republican politics at the University of Iowa.

Others, however, see the real influence of Paul's supporters extending beyond Tampa and the 2012 race.

Professor Josh Putnam, a political scientist at Davidson College, sees certain parallels between the growing influence of Paul supporters in the Republican party and the activities of social conservatives in the 1980s and 1990s before they came to be a dominant force in the 2000s. He pointed out how Paul supporters have effectively come to dominate the state party in Nevada to such an extent that some officials have resigned and even threatened to set up a "shadow party" in the state in the face of the Paul takeover. "We should be looking at what is happening in state parties. That is what really matters in the long term," said Putnam.

But in the meantime all eyes will be on Tampa this August and just how many delegates, delegations and supporters Paul will bring to the convention and just how willing – or not – they will be to tow the Romney team's party line. "No one knows what is going to happen. It is going to be interesting, shall we say," said Hagle.