WorldPop, an open-access population mapping project, first analysed the areas within China most at risk of the novel coronavirus epidemic, based on internal travel within mainland China over Lunar New Year. The novel coronavirus originated in Wuhan in Hubei province but the researchers said 17 other Chinese cities were also at high risk of epidemic: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Changsha, Xi'an, Nanjing, Shenzen, Chongquing, Nanchang, Chengdu, Hefei, Fuzhou and Dongguan. The researchers then analysed the international cities - including the non-mainland Chinese cities of Hong Kong, Taipei and Macau - that would receive the most airline passengers from those at-risk cities, based on the visitor patterns of previous years. Sydney was ranked 12th in a list of international cities expected to receive the most number of airline passengers from those high-risk Chinese cities, while Melbourne was ranked 14th. But Sydney and Melbourne were more at risk than any other Western cities, ahead of Los Angeles, New York, London, Paris and Frankfurt.

Bangkok and Hong Kong were most at risk outside mainland China, anticipated to receive more than a million visitors from high-risk cities in mainland China over the three months. The Australian cities were also considered safer than a number of other Asian cities, including Bangkok, Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. Education Minister Dan Tehan outlined government measures including the passenger ban. "To substantially reduce the volume of travellers coming from mainland China, [the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee] recommends additional border measures be implemented to deny entry to Australia to people who have left mainland China from 1 February, with the exception of Australian citizens, permanent residents and their immediate family and air crews who have been using appropriate personal protective equipment," he said. "This [ban] also applies to transit passengers who are not Australian Citizens or permanent residents."

The university sector is bracing for an influx of students returning from China, with Monash University in Melbourne taking the unusual step of delaying the start of the academic year and holding online classes for the first week. Students would return to campus in mid-March. Other Australian universities have not altered teaching plans but will provide flexibility for students who need to go into quarantine. Monash student Veronica Smith said the delayed start to the year would seriously impact students because the university planned to shorten the study vacation period before exams from 10 days to three days. "I absolutely hate it, and the fact that students or the [students association] were not consulted is appalling," Ms Smith said. The University of NSW has less leeway to provide a quarantine period for returning students because of its three-term academic year. Orientation week at UNSW is scheduled for the week of February 11, with teaching to start on February 18.

Mr Morrison said universities were not the government's first concern, but that the threat was being addressed. "We have also tasked the Education Minister particularly to work with the tertiary sector to identify additional measures and precautions that will see the least disruption possible to this year for international students and that can mean the delaying of the commencement of courses, the providing of courses online in the initial phases, the delaying of orientation weeks," he said. Loading The University of Sydney, Macquarie University and the Australian National University start teaching on February 24, the University of Melbourne and RMIT on March 2 and the University of Technology Sydney starts on March 9. UNSW professor Bill Rawlinson said the university had other options such as providing face masks through the medical service on campus.