Let’s first start off by saying, I had hope that ace David Price would return to the Toronto Blue Jays given the fact that new President Mark Shapiro believes that with this current core, there is another season that the Blue Jays will be very competitive and that in certain cases, Shapiro can see a deal of upwards of 7 years. The more news that comes out about Price, it seems less and less likely he comes back and it is nearly a certainty he re-unites with Joe Maddon with the Chicago Cubs. Let’s proceed without Price.

As things currently sit, there are likely two openings to be filled in the Blue Jays rotation. With Price not returning, Marcus Stroman is the new ace, which he can easily be. You have a gap for #2 and #3 in the rotation where you get to the knuckleballer and easy 200.0+ inning man, R.A. Dickey. The 5th spot could be up for grabs between Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez, and perhaps Roberto Osuna. Sanchez has already been informed the Blue Jays plan to have him enter Dunedin as a starter. If you ask me, Osuna, who I believe to be more built to be a starter than Sanchez will remain the Blue Jays closer to not open too many holes in the bullpen.

Entering 2016, I do believe the Blue Jays smart play would be to have Drew Hutchison begin the year in the rotation as the 5. Why? The kid has talent. There is no denying how good Hutchison is when he is pitching out of the windup. He can paint his fastball wherever he wants on a good day and his slider is very nasty. The key for Hutchison is that changeup, which is very hit and miss. Despite his awful 5.57 ERA, his FIP was 4.42 and xFIP was 4.21. With those and his high strikeout rate, the potential for Hutchison to be a very good #5 is there. His BABIP was also extremely high at .343 which one would assume comes down next year. It would be silly to not have Hutchison get another stab at being a key cog in the rotation. Considering how bad his 2015 was, he was still worth 1.5 wins. For a #5 starter in 2016, you take that.

Let’s see where we stand. There are a few ways I can see the Blue Jays going with this and we will operate under the projected contracts that Fangraphs projects these players to get. Both of my ideas involve bringing back Marco Estrada which also means Dioner Navarro.

In late September, it was still unclear as to whether or not Marco Estrada would be even in the rotation for the post-season. The Blue Jays sure are glad they put him there as he saved the Blue Jays season twice with absolute gems. Estrada defeated the Texas Rangers in Game 3 in Arlington with a nice 6.1 inning performance only allowing 1 run and striking out 4. Estrada started game 1 of the ALCS and threw a decent 5.1. It was his game 5 performance against the Kansas City Royals that sent the series back to Kansas City, and nearly a full 7 games that Estrada shined. He threw an absolute clinic, going 7.2 innings allowing a solo shot to Salvador Perez while striking out 5 and scattering 3 hits. His post-season likely is what cemented the Blue Jays giving Estrada a qualifying offer of $15.8 million.

There are a bunch of doubters about Marco Estrada and whether he can repeat his 2015. The biggest thing that people have going against him is the very low BABIP of .216. They also look at his 4.40 FIP and 4.93 xFIP. Being a flyball pitcher, defense is crucial for Estrada’s success which usually will almost always mean a higher FIP and xFIP. However, look beyond that and there is not much reason to bet against Estrada being a #3 or maybe even a good #2. The first thing is, Estrada does not beat himself. The opposition only hit .202 against him in 2015 which was the best in the American League. His 1.04 WHIP was 2nd best in the AL. He simply does not beat himself. The only real way to beat Estrada is the home run ball. He does allow a fair share of home runs but if he isn’t allowing baserunners, the majority of those are only solo shots which usually don’t mean a whole lot.

Even if Estrada regresses a bit in 2016, I think there is a whole lot more working in Estrada’s favour to be successful again in 2016 than there is working against him from being a reliable starter again. Fangraphs predicts Estrada earning himself a 3 year deal worth $33 million. Depending on how the contract is structured, that would be about $11 million per season. Dioner Navarro is projected to make $10 million over 2 seasons. For a starter and backup catcher who have almost an entire season of success together, $16 million is a steal.

This is where I see the Blue Jays going one of two ways. If they have the money to throw at an upper echelon starter, the one they pursue the hardest is Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has been worth no less than 3.0 wins since the 2011 season and his most valuable season was 2014 when he was worth 5.3 wins which is ace calibre. Zimmermann is nearly a lock for 200.0+ innings year in and year out. He has had himself a very nice career with the Washington Nationals. He has a career ERA of 3.32, a 3.40 FIP, and 3.57 xFIP. The most impressive stats for me in his career is his BB/9 of 1.82 and HR/9 of 0.86. Zimmermann doesn’t get beat by walking guys or the home run ball. Batters have hit .248 against him for his career, which is right around league average.

As you can tell by some of the stats I have highlighted, Zimmermann is right around ace calibre. Fangraphs projects Zimmermann coming in at around 6 years and $120 million for an AAV of $20 million. There are some who think he could get more depending on whether or not teams view him as a top level arm or just a steady mid-rotation arm. Based on his career, I would peg Zimmermann as one of the better starters in the MLB and an easy #2, maybe even an ace.

If the Blue Jays have the cash to spend, a combo of Estrada, Navarro, and Zimmermann comes in at a projected $36 million for the three for 2016. Considering Price is projected to make nearly $30 million per season, you let Price walk and get these $36 million. That could even make some room to add a bullpen arm or two.

Should the Blue Jays not want to throw a lot of money at a starter, I look at these three arms as potential fits:

Mike Leake has been a very reliable mid rotation starter since 2011 with the Cincinnati Reds. He has himself a decent 3.88 career ERA and has really been able to start inducing groundballs the past few seasons. He doesn’t strike many guys out and really relies on defense to be successful. The majority of contact made against Leake is medium % at a 55.0% average in 2015. He doesn’t get a whole lot of soft contact. His stuff isn’t very flashy, so like Estrada, Leake relies on location to be successful. Leake is projected to earn a contract of $56 million over 4 years for an AAV of $14 million.

Estrada + Navarro + Leake = $30 million

2. Ian Kennedy

Have you heard of a pitcher who has good stuff but is frequently beaten by the home run ball? That was Marco Estrada before 2015. Now, I look at Ian Kennedy in a similar lens. Kennedy has had seasons where he was worth 4.8 wins (2011) and 3.5 (2014) where he has looked like a mid to top of the rotation type of arm. Why? He wasn’t beaten by the home run ball. In 2015, Kennedy was barely above replacement level at 0.8 wins and he allowed an awful 31 home runs pitching primarily in San Diego! When Kennedy isn’t beaten by the home run ball, you can see the top of the rotation potential with his high K/9 and league average BAA. Pitching for the San Diego Padres at Petco Park and allowing 31 home runs is troubling, but that was the same concern everyone had about Estrada coming into 2015. Kennedy is projected to earn $36 million over 3 years for an AAV of $12 million per season.

Estrada + Navarro + Kennedy = $28 million

3. Yovani Gallardo

Gallardo has been worth at least 2.0 wins every season of his career (except 2008 with only 4 starts) and just came off his best season with the Texas Rangers since 2012 with the Milwaukee Brewers. Gallardo peaked early in his career with Milwaukee when he was near ace level talent in 2010 and 2011. With decline in velocity with all of his pitches since then, Gallardo has become more of a contact pitcher who relies on defense behind him. Long gone are the days of Gallardo striking out 200+ batters. This past season, he showed flashes of his former self with Milwaukee but being worth 2.5 wins is a nice total. He is a consistent mid-rotation type pitcher but the true caveat with Gallardo is that he didn’t even average 6.0 innings per start in 2015. He struggles the 2nd and 3rd time through lineups due to his mediocre stuff but you can almost be guaranteed he throws you a solid 5-6 innings every start. If he’s locating his pitches, he has the ability to rack up outs quickly and go deep into ball games. If not, you’re looking at 5-6 innings. Gallardo is projected to make $56 million over 4 years for an AAV of $14 million.

Estrada + Navarro + Gallardo = $30 million.

In my mind, the Blue Jays will be able to pony up the money to bring Jordan Zimmermann to Toronto while being able to bring back Estrada and Navarro. It all depends on what the other 29 MLB teams view Zimmermann as. Some may view him as a solid mid-level arm while there are others who see an ace. If Zimmermann gets Jon Lester type money ($155/6 years), I don’t think the Blue Jays make a play. That brings in the three options I listed as potential fits, all for $30 million or less.

What do you want to see the Blue Jays do? Pony up and bring David Price back for nearly $30 million per season? Sign Zimmermann, Estrada, and Navarro for $36 million? Or go the cheaper route to add a free agent reliever or two, plus maybe someone on offense? I take the Zimmermann package which keeps Sanchez and Osuna in the bullpen.