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Jamie Vardy pulled away. Everton defender Michael Keane grasped for his arm as though trying to haul himself on to the back of a runaway train.

Leicester City fans, breath held, would usually expect only one outcome.

A dinked finish, perhaps. A cool side-foot into the bottom corner. Maybe even an extra touch to take the ball around Jordan Pickford before slotting it into the net. By whichever means, a goal.

What they saw instead was Vardy stab at the ball with his toe and watch it trickle wide of the post.

(Image: Plumb Images/Leicester City FC via Getty Images)

And it was not for the first time this season. As we will come to see, for as ruthless a finisher as Vardy has proven himself throughout his record-setting Premier League existence, the City striker’s start to this campaign has been less clinical than normal.

Using statistics available on the Premier League website and WhoScored.com, we delved down the data rabbit hole to uncover the numbers behind Vardy’s season so far compared to the previous three stretching back to the incredible Premier League title win.

The results, even if we do say so ourselves, are revealing.

Goals

Vardy has scored three Premier League goals this season: the consolation off the bench at Manchester United on opening day, his chipped finish at home to Huddersfield and his penalty at Newcastle.

They have come from five starts and a total of 431 minutes. A goal, then, every 143.7 minutes.

Even taking into account his inconsistent start, that is still better than both the previous two campaigns – don’t forget Vardy scored 20 Premier League goals last season – and bettered only by the title-winning season.

That’s 0.63 goals per 90 minutes. In 2015/16 it was 0.69. Early days, but he’s not far off.

Even at this current rate, when as we will see he is squandering chances, he would still pass 20 goals for a third out of his last four seasons.

Involvement

A grumbling concern has bubbled up and mutated over time that Vardy is one of the biggest victims of Claude Puel’s style. The Frenchman’s preference for possession, instead of the good old-fashioned lump into the channels at the first opportunity for Vardy to chase, leaves the striker isolated and starves him of chances.

This season, that is simply not true.

Vardy has had 17 attempts on goal so far this season. That equates to an attempt every 25.4 minutes. Or 3.5 per game.

Last season – when, remember, he still scored 20 goals – it was one every 45.8 minutes. Even in the title-winning season, when he was one goal shy of sharing the Golden Boot with Harry Kane, he mustered an effort on goal once every 27.3 minutes. Or 3.3 per game.

So far, then, Vardy is having more shots on average per game then when City won the title. Yes, read that again.

Why might that be? It could be down to a number of reasons.

James Maddison’s arrival has to be one. The summer signing has fast become the creative heart-beat of Puel’s side and has created the joint-most chances (15) of any other player in the Premier League this season.

With that comes Puel’s style having longer to bed in. He’s had a summer transfer window and a pre-season to get his ideas across. With the likes of Maddison and Ricard Pereira adding to that, Vardy may well be using that to thrive.

Another could be the blossoming partnership with Kelechi Iheanacho. In the last three games, Puel has started both Vardy and Iheanacho together with Maddison starting on the left.

(Image: Plumb Images/Leicester City FC via Getty Images)

While that may raise problems for Maddison’s creativity, Iheanacho’s inclusion has given Vardy more support up front.

Vardy mustered five goal attempts in his first three appearances, which included a substitute cameo at Old Trafford, an hour before being sent off against Wolves, and a start at Bournemouth.

An attempt every 35.4 minutes. In the three games he has started with Iheanacho, Vardy has had 12 shots with one every 21.2 minutes. Iheanacho also assisted Vardy’s goal against Huddersfield.

Vardy is having more shots. The problem, as we are about to find out, is that City’s usually ruthless finisher is struggling to take them.

Big chances

Data analysts Opta define a ‘Big Chance’ as ‘a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter’. Penalties are always considered big chances.

Vardy has already had seven big chances this season. That’s one every 61.9 minutes or 1.46 a game. Last season it was one every 162.8 minutes, the season before 187.2 minutes and, even in the title-winning campaign, it was 82.6 minutes or 1.09 per game.

Conclusion: He’s getting more big chances than ever. He’s just not taking as many. Of the seven big chances, he has scored three but missed four. In the entirety of last season, Vardy only missed six.

Vardy scored one at Manchester United but missed another when he ballooned a volley over the bar. Opta say he missed another when he went through against Bournemouth, got a toe on the ball, only to go cartwheeling over the onrushing goalkeeper. He produced a fine finish at home to Huddersfield but also snatched a volley wide from Maddison’s quick free-kick. Vardy scored his penalty at Newcastle but then scuffed his one-on-one effort in the defeat to Everton.

That leaves Vardy with a big-chance conversion rate this season of 42.9 per cent. Last term, Vardy boasted one the best in the entire Premier League after he found the net with 14 of his 20 big chances (70%). That’s a big drop.

The season before that, he buried nine of his 15 (60%). Surprisingly, in the title-winning season in which Vardy netted 24 goals, he actually only scored 16 of his 38 (42.1%) big chances.

As we saw earlier, Vardy has had more shots per game this term than when he fired Leicester to the title. But he has also taken more of them to score.

This season, he’s had 5.7 shots per goal. In previous seasons: 3.6, 4.1, 4.8.

Cause for concern or confidence?

All of that, then, can be boiled down to three facts: Vardy is having more chances. Vardy is missing more chances. Vardy is still scoring.

Those last four words are why Vardy’s current misfiring form should be seen, more than as a cause for concern, but as a reason to be confident.

Vardy has plenty of mitigating factors to account for his stuttering start. Not only was he at the World Cup, the labours of which have seen many other summer internationals endure slower starts to the campaign, but he also suffered a groin injury while on duty.

He returned, too, with only a few days of pre-season before being thrust into the first game off the bench at Old Trafford.

His red card in the following game against Wolves saw him miss three matches, two in the Premier League. No chance, then, of Vardy getting into a rhythm.

That will surely come soon. And when it does, Vardy will gobble up chance after chance. Because he’s sure getting them.

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