Labor has maintained its election-winning lead over the Coalition as the election campaign enters its final fortnight, according to a new Guardian Essential poll.

The survey of 1,079 people shows Labor is leading the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis 52% to 48%, a slight lift within the poll’s margin of error compared to last week, when Labor was ahead 51% to 49%.

But after the start of the election campaign saw the two major parties stage a recovery in their primary vote, support for both major parties has again slumped, suggesting the flow of preferences may still prove critical to the election outcome.

Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 34% compared to 37% a week ago and below the 34.7% it recorded at the last election, while the primary vote for the Liberal and National parties combined remains at 38% – down a point from last week, but unchanged from five weeks ago.

Support for minor parties combined sits at 28%, with the Greens lifting their support from 9% a week ago to 12%, One Nation on 7% and other independents, including Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, preferred by 9% of voters.

With just 12 days to go until polling day, more than half of all voters believe Labor is heading for victory on 18 May (54%), including 90% of Labor voters and 21% of Coalition voters.

On this metric, expectations have moderated in the past week, when 59% of people expected Bill Shorten to become prime minister, including 95% of Labor voters.

Scott Morrison has increased his lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister, preferred by 42% of people compared to 31%, while 27% of people still don’t know.

Among Labor voters, 63% said Shorten was their preferred prime minister, with 13% thinking Morrison would do a better job, while 25% did not know. For Coalition voters, 80% backed Morrison for the position.

Ahead of tomorrow’s final campaign debate between the two leaders, the survey also gauged voter support for the policies of the two major parties. When asked to make a direct comparison between the policies on offer between the two major parties, 46% preferred Labor’s offering, compared to 36% for the Coalition.

Labor’s most popular policy (76%) is the pledge to extend Medicare to cover cancer and aged care dental, while the Coalition’s stalled legislation to break up energy companies who charge too much was also strongly supported (72%).

But in a sign of the challenge facing both leaders as they make their final campaign pitch to voters, the survey shows a large number of people are disengaged with the campaign, with 16% of people saying they have not been paying any attention to the election campaign, with a further 29% paying little attention.

Only 19% are fully tuned in to the contest, reporting they have been paying a “lot of attention”, while 36% say they are paying some attention.

The stories that have been cutting through may have fed through to the voter disaffection with the major parties, with the withdrawal of candidates the most mentioned news item in the past week.

As the leaders desperately try to cut through to undecided voters ahead of the 18 May poll, Morrison will today focus on regional Australia, announcing support for the mobile blackspot program, and pledging $15m for regional study hubs to support university students to stay in their local communities.

The government will also pledge $2m for the Country Education Partnership’s Rural Inspire initiative to support young people living in rural communities to set their sights high and achieve their goals.

“Our new blueprint and our regional deals will boost investment outside our major cities and we’ll tackle the digital and educational divide between the city and our regions,” Morrison said.