This post will wrap up our series on 2014 Fantasy Baseball busts. We’ve looked at outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, and now we will examine closer busts. As a supplement to this discussion we will look at the velocity loss leaders from 2013 at the end of the post.

More so than any other position in Fantasy Baseball, a closers’ value is based primarily on opportunity. The best middle relief pitcher is not as valuable as the worst closer; saves are all that matter. As long as a pitcher gets the opportunity to pitch in the ninth inning, he can be a valuable Fantasy asset. Ask Shawn Chacon about his 2004 season, and he’ll be able to attest.

That said I’ve chosen to rank any pitcher that has a likely possibility to close in 2014 (i.e. Jake McGee), and all closers that were ranked in the top 132 pitchers for last year’s final roto ranks (i.e. Edward Mujica).

(If you read the previous two articles you can skip the next two paragraphs, which describe how we define a bust.)

To ascribe an analytic value to how we quantify a bust, we will look at a player’s 2013 roto value and a hybrid of their Steamer and Oliver projections.

Bust: Our formula for a bust will be a player’s projected 2014 roto value—this forecasted value will be composed of an average between a player’s Steamer and Oliver projections—minus their 2013 roto value. (Values will be calculated for a 12-team 5×5 roto league)

Steamer & Oliver Closer Ranks

Player Projected tzSCR 2013 tzSCR DIFF Kevin Gregg -8.79 -2.09 -6.70 Edward Mujica -6.05 -0.62 -5.43 Chris Perez -7.25 -2.49 -4.77 Jose Veras -6.84 -2.20 -4.64 Fernando Rodney -4.92 -0.54 -4.37 Heath Bell -6.63 -2.74 -3.89 Brandon League -7.71 -4.28 -3.44 Joaquin Benoit -3.31 -0.11 -3.20 Rex Brothers -4.60 -1.45 -3.15 Joe Nathan 0.00 2.30 -2.30 Jason Grilli -3.25 -1.03 -2.22 Tom Wilhelmsen -5.62 -3.53 -2.09 Steve Cishek -0.27 0.29 -0.56 Koji Uehara 2.04 2.47 -0.43 Rafael Soriano -1.09 -0.70 -0.39 Greg Holland 2.24 2.56 -0.32 Jim Henderson -0.57 -0.33 -0.24 Sergio Romo 0.24 0.24 0.00 Casey Janssen -0.17 -0.30 0.13 Addison Reed 0.14 -0.10 0.24 Huston Street -0.70 -0.97 0.27 Craig Kimbrel 3.46 3.07 0.39 Grant Balfour -0.24 -0.71 0.47 Bobby Parnell -0.32 -0.90 0.58 Glen Perkins 1.17 0.38 0.80 Jonathan Papelbon 0.34 -0.75 1.09 Kenley Jansen 2.84 1.74 1.10 Mark Melancon 0.92 -0.25 1.17 Ernesto Frieri 0.51 -0.86 1.37 Aroldis Chapman 2.73 1.22 1.51 Danny Farquhar 0.53 -3.09 3.61 Trevor Rosenthal 2.36 Jake McGee 0.76 David Robertson 0.67 Tommy Hunter 0.31 Nate Jones -0.35 John Axford -0.84 LaTroy Hawkins -1.98

*Rosenthal, McGee, Robertson, Hunter, Jones, Axford, and Hawkins did not finish in the top 132 pitchers from last year so their is no 2013 rank for them, but I thought it would be helpful to look a their projection for this year.

Fernando Rodney: Free Agent

Rodney is the first big name on this list that is projected to have a drop off from last year to this year. However this projection should be discredited more than it should be valued. Steamer and Oliver project Rodney to have a minimal amount of saves in 2014, but there will most likely be one team (i.e. the Mariners or Orioles) that bite the bullet and pay for Rodney’s services. Rodney is actually projected by Steamer and Oliver to have a better ERA in 2014—2.88 for the former and 3.18 for the latter—than he did last year.

Joe Nathan: Detroit Tigers

Since 2006 Joe Nathan’s control has headed north, while his K% has trended in the wrong direction. Last year was his worst year as far as BB% goes since 2003, which could be a sign that his control or stuff has begun to slip. Control aside, all five of Nathan’s pitches’ velocity was down, and he threw his fastball less than he ever has before (38.2%) and his slider more than he ever has before (33.8%). With Nathan’s age in mind, it makes one think about whether or not his arm will be able to handle the wear and tear that comes along with heavy slider usage at an advanced age.

Rex Brothers: Colorado Rockies

It’s been stated that the Rockies plan to use LaTroy Hawkins as their closer when the 2014 season opens up, but Hawkins will be 41 when the season begins, and Brothers is sure to receive some save opportunities when/if Hawkins performs poorly or makes a trip to the DL. But should you be interested when/if Brothers’ time comes? His projection says otherwise, but his velocity loss says more on that as well. Of any qualified reliever from last season, Brothers lost the sixth most average velocity on his four seem fastball from 2012 to 2013. It still remains to be seen whether of not a loss in fastball velocity is correlated with an overall slip in performance—I should probably look into it myself—but it gives you a reason to pause about Brothers or anyone atop the list below.

Velocity Loss Leaders (Relief Pitchers)

Player vFA 2013 vFT 2013 vFA 2012 vFA DIFF vFT 2012 vFT DIFF Adam Ottavino 91.4 91.5 94 -2.6 94.6 -3.1 Carter Capps 95.5 94.9 97.8 -2.3 Ryan Webb 91.9 93.8 -1.9 Jonathan Papelbon 92 92 93.8 -1.8 93.9 -1.9 Addison Reed 92.7 93.5 94.5 -1.8 95.5 -2 Rex Brothers 93.4 92.8 95.2 -1.8 95.2 -2.4 Casey Janssen 89.9 86.6 91.7 -1.8 91.4 -4.8 Joe Nathan 92.3 91.7 94 -1.7 93.6 -1.9 Wilton Lopez 92.2 89.5 93.6 -1.4 Oliver Perez 91.7 93.1 -1.4 Jamey Wright 89.5 90.8 -1.3 90.9 Chris Perez 92.8 91.2 94 -1.2 92.3 -1.1 Josh Roenicke 91.5 90.6 92.6 -1.1 91.7 -1.1 Trevor Rosenthal 96.4 97.4 -1 Dale Thayer 92.8 93 93.8 -1 93.8 -0.8 Luke Gregerson 88.1 88.2 89.1 -1 89.7 -1.5 Brandon League 94.1 95 -0.9 Jim Johnson 93.5 93.9 94.4 -0.9 94.2 -0.3 Rafael Soriano 91.4 91.7 92.3 -0.9 92.3 -0.6 Jose Mijares 90.2 89.4 91.1 -0.9 90.4 -1 Huston Street 88.1 88.9 -0.8 Pedro Strop 95.6 95.7 96.4 -0.8 96.9 -1.2 John Axford 95.3 91.6 96.1 -0.8 Drew Storen 93.7 94.5 -0.8 Jared Burton 91.8 92.2 92.6 -0.8 93 -0.8 Tyler Clippard 92 92.7 -0.7 Kevin Gregg 90.7 91.4 -0.7 Wesley Wright 89.8 90 90.5 -0.7 90.3 -0.3 Santiago Casilla 93.2 93 93.9 -0.7 93.7 -0.7 Bobby Parnell 95.1 94.9 95.8 -0.7 96 -1.1 George Kontos 90.3 90.4 90.9 -0.6 90.6 -0.2 Darren Oliver 87.3 87.8 87.9 -0.6 88.5 -0.7 Heath Bell 93.1 93.6 -0.5 Jason Frasor 92.5 93 -0.5 92.9 Josh Collmenter 87.1 87.6 -0.5 Ronald Belisario 94.3 94.7 -0.4 Carlos Marmol 93.6 94.8 94 -0.4 93.9 0.9 Edward Mujica 91.6 92 92 -0.4 91.8 0.2 Craig Breslow 90.5 89.5 90.9 -0.4 90.6 -1.1 Casey Fien 91.1 90.6 91.5 -0.4 91.7 -1.1 Mark Melancon 92.7 93.1 -0.4 Sergio Romo 87.6 87.9 -0.3 Anthony Swarzak 92.1 91.8 92.4 -0.3 92.3 -0.5 Jason Grilli 93.3 93.6 -0.3 Michael Gonzalez 91.2 89.3 91.5 -0.3 Matt Belisle 90.5 91.5 90.8 -0.3 91 0.5 Tom Wilhelmsen 95.9 96.3 96.2 -0.3 95.9 0.4 Matt Lindstrom 95 95.2 -0.2 Joel Peralta 90.1 90.3 -0.2 Sam LeCure 89.5 89.3 89.7 -0.2 89.5 -0.2 Kelvin Herrera 97.2 97.5 97.4 -0.2 97.8 -0.3 Matt Albers 93.4 93.6 -0.2 Shawn Kelley 92.1 92.2 -0.1 Mike Dunn 94.3 94 94.4 -0.1 93.8 0.2 Craig Stammen 91.3 91.6 91.4 -0.1 91.5 0.1 Tim Collins 93 93.1 -0.1 J.J. Hoover 92.7 92.8 -0.1 76.1 James Russell 88.9 88.9 89 -0.1 88.1 0.8 Ryan Cook 94.7 94.5 94.8 -0.1 95 -0.5 Greg Holland 96.1 96.1 0 David Robertson 92.3 92.3 0 Glen Perkins 95.2 94.4 95.2 0 94.4 0 Ernesto Frieri 94.1 94.5 94 0.1 94.3 0.2 Alfredo Simon 94.3 94.5 94.2 0.1 94.4 0.1 Brian Duensing 92.4 92.3 0.1 88.2 Tony Watson 87.2 87.1 0.1 Craig Kimbrel 96.9 97.3 96.8 0.1 97.2 0.1 Tanner Scheppers 96.3 96.1 0.2 Jim Henderson 95.2 96.1 95 0.2 94.9 1.2 David Hernandez 94.9 94.7 94.7 0.2 94.5 0.2 Steve Delabar 94.1 94.7 93.8 0.3 94.7 0 Fernando Rodney 96.6 96.3 96.2 0.4 95.9 0.4 LaTroy Hawkins 92.6 91.6 92.2 0.4 91.8 -0.2 Aroldis Chapman 98.4 98 0.4 J.P. Howell 87.5 87.1 0.4 Koji Uehara 89.2 89.7 88.8 0.4 88.6 1.1 Joaquin Benoit 94 94.2 93.6 0.4 93.9 0.3 Nate Jones 96.7 97.7 96.3 0.4 97.6 0.1 Cesar Ramos 91.8 91.3 0.5 Darren O'Day 86.1 85.6 0.5 91.3 Sean Doolittle 94.1 92.3 93.6 0.5 91.3 1 Cody Allen 95.3 94.7 0.6 Grant Balfour 93.3 93.9 92.7 0.6 92.1 1.8 Jake McGee 96.1 96.5 95.5 0.6 95.7 0.8 Charlie Furbush 92.1 91.3 91.5 0.6 91.1 0.2 Logan Ondrusek 93.7 93.1 0.6 Robbie Ross 92.4 91.5 91.7 0.7 Bryan Shaw 90.8 90 0.8 David Carpenter 95.1 94.7 94.3 0.8 90.8 3.9 Luis Avilan 93.5 93 92.4 1.1 91.5 1.5 Junichi Tazawa 93.4 92.2 1.2 89.6 Kenley Jansen 93.6 92.2 1.4 90.2 Burke Badenhop 89 87.3 1.7 Aaron Loup 91.5 92 91.7 -0.2 Troy Patton 88.9 89.8 -0.9

*vFA stands for four seam fastball and vFT stands for two seam fastball.

Devin Jordan is obsessed with statistical analysis, non-fiction literature, and electronic music. If you enjoyed reading him, follow him on Twitter @devinjjordan.