Gloating about and reporting on candidate recruitment has become commonplace in the election process. But too often, the grading and grandstanding is premature — and even completely wrong.

This cycle, Republicans are crowing after former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams declined to run for the Senate and freshman Rep. Cindy Axne decided to forgo a Senate run in Iowa. But their decisions don’t change the national dynamic (the GOP majority is still at risk) or the local dynamic (both of those races are still competitive). History tells us we have a long way to go before November 2020.

“The recruiting nightmare continues to embarrass national Republicans with this week possibly being one of the worst yet after major failures in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and Alaska,” according to a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee memo detailed in a May 30, 2013, story in The Hill, entitled, “DSCC hammers GOP on Senate ‘recruiting nightmare’ in 4 states.”

More than a year later, Republicans gained nine Senate seats (including all four of the states Democrats determined were failures) and recaptured the majority.

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