

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other. Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.



The momentum in the race is completely on Santorum’s side. He’s moved up 8 points since a PPP poll earlier in the week, while no one else has seen more than a one point gain in their support. Among voters who say they decided who to vote for in the last seven days he leads Romney 29-17 with Paul and Gingrich both at 13. Santorum’s net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else’s favorability exceeds 52%. He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he’s their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul.

Other than Santorum’s rise the other big story of this week is Paul’s fall. He was at 24% earlier in the week but has dropped to 20%. That decline in support coincides with a precipitous drop in his favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that’s gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51). For all that Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday- it just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus. Mitt Romney leads with the more traditional caucus demographics of senior citizens and registered Republicans.

“It’s impossible to say who’s going to win Tuesday night,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If you think momentum will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Santorum. If you think having the most passionate supporters will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Paul. And if you think the ability to beat Barack Obama will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Romney.”

PPP surveyed 1,340 likely Republican caucus voters on December 31st and January 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus

or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?

Republican caucus…………………………………..100%

Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 0%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 If the Republican candidates for President

were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon

Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Buddy

Roemer, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum,

who would you vote for?

Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 20%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 18%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 4%

Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to

that candidate, or might you end up supporting

someone else?

Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 76%

Might end up supporting someone else ………. 24%

Q4 Who would be your second choice for

President?

Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 13%

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 15%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 14%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 22%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Michele Bachmann?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Jon Huntsman?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Ron Paul?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rick Perry?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mitt Romney?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rick Santorum?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q12 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

Are ………………………………………………………… 49%

Are not …………………………………………………… 51%

Q13 Do you regularly watch Fox News, or not?

Do …………………………………………………………. 51%

Do not ……………………………………………………. 49%

Q14 When did you decide who to vote for: in the last

week, the last month, or earlier?

In the last week……………………………………….. 29%

In the last month ……………………………………… 29%

Earlier ……………………………………………………. 34%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q15 In 2008, did you vote in the Democratic or

Republican caucus, or did you not vote in a

caucus?

Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 15%

Republican caucus…………………………………… 50%

Didn’t vote in a caucus……………………………… 34%

Q16 (Among Republican caucus goers:) Did you

vote for Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred

Thompson, John McCain, Ron Paul, Rudy

Giuliani, or someone else in the 2008 caucus,

or do you not remember?

Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 27%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%

Fred Thompson ………………………………………. 13%

John McCain…………………………………………… 16%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%

Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 4%

Someone else…………………………………………. 2%

Don’t remember ………………………………………. 7%

Q17 Which of the following things is most important

to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the

economy, government spending and reducing

the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage

and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign

policy and national security?

Jobs/economy…………………………………………. 26%

Government spending, reducing the debt ……. 38%

Taxes …………………………………………………….. 3%

Social issues…………………………………………… 10%

Illegal immigration……………………………………. 4%

Foreign policy/national security………………….. 4%

Someone else…………………………………………. 3%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q18 What is more important to you when deciding

who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat

Barack Obama in the general election, or their

positions on the issues?

A candidate’s ability to beat Obama……………. 31%

Their issue positions ………………………………… 54%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q19 Do you think that Rick Santorum has strong

principles, or not?

He does …………………………………………………. 59%

He does not ……………………………………………. 16%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q20 Do you think that Ron Paul has strong

principles, or not?

He does …………………………………………………. 60%

He does not ……………………………………………. 19%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q21 Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong

principles, or not?

He does …………………………………………………. 41%

He does not ……………………………………………. 37%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q22 Which of the Republican candidates do you

think has the best chance of defeating Barack

Obama?

Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 9%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 22%

Q23 How much attention have you paid to the

televised debates between the candidates so

far: a lot of attention, some attention, or not

much attention at all?

A lot of attention………………………………………. 37%

Some attention………………………………………… 32%

Not much attention at all …………………………… 13%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q24 Have you seen any of the candidates speak in

person, and if so, how many?

Have not seen any of the candidates in

person…………………………………………………….50%

Have seen only one candidate…………………… 12%

Have seen more than one candidate ………….. 18%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q25 When deciding who to vote for, how important

is it to you that a candidate has spent a lot of

time in Iowa: very important, somewhat

important, or not important at all?

Very important…………………………………………. 25%

Somewhat important ………………………………… 39%

Not important at all…………………………………… 17%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q26 Who do you think has run the strongest

campaign in Iowa?

Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 13%

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 5%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 22%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 8%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 13%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 29%

Q27 Who do you think is going to win the Iowa

caucuses?

Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 4%

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 20%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 9%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%

Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%

Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q29 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are

older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%

30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%

46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%

Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Q30 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ……………………………………………… 6%

Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%

Moderate………………………………………………… 18%

Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%

Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%

Q31 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify

with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 6%

Republican……………………………………………… 76%

Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q32 Do you consider yourself to be a member of

the Tea Party?

Yes………………………………………………………… 25%

No …………………………………………………………. 65%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q33 Date of Interview

Saturday ………………………………………………… 50%

Sunday…………………………………………………… 50%