Obama up by five … in Montana

A few weeks ago, in its first general-election ad of the year, the Obama campaign hit the airwaves in 18 states, including 14 that supported Bush/Cheney four years ago. Among the states was Montana.

Now, at first blush, this seemed like a rather foolish way to spend campaign money. Four years ago, Bush beat Kerry in Montana by 21 points. Eight years ago, Bush beat Gore in Montana by 25 points. Did the Obama campaign know something we don’t?

As a matter of fact, yes.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain by five percentage points in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%. In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43%. That was before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and defeated Hillary Clinton by fifteen points in Montana. […] Against McCain, Obama leads among voters under 50, including a twenty-seven point lead among voters under 30. McCain leads among those over 50. Obama is supported by 89% of Montana Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans.

Without more data, it’s hard to know if these numbers are an outlier, but given that Rasmussen showed Montana as a competitive state in April, too, the results aren’t too hard to believe.

Indeed, Eric Kleefeld reminds us that as conservative as Montana’s reputation is, this is a state that has a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators.

Talk about stretching the map — I suspect the McCain campaign didn’t expect to have to worry about Montana.