Strudelcutie4427



Sr. Member



Posts: 2,388







SingletxguyforfunSr. MemberPosts: 2,388 Re: CA-Gravis: Cox 23, Newsom 22 « Reply #3 on: May 09, 2018, 01:17:41 pm » What are the odds of a R v R runoff? To be fair Im not a fan of the top 2 jungle primary system Logged

brand_allen





Posts: 57





RookiePosts: 57 Re: CA-Gravis: Cox 23, Newsom 22 « Reply #11 on: May 10, 2018, 01:50:15 pm »



Quote from: brand_allen on May 10, 2018, 01:47:03 pm As someone who thinks the term "garbage poll" gets thrown around a little too freely, this poll is absolute garbage, for a multitude of reasons...



1. Gravis would have you believe Trump's favorability is at 47/51%, in *California.*

2. They'd also have you believe that 1 in 4 California *Democrats* views Trump favorably.

3. They'd also have you believe Trump's favorability breaks even with California Latinos (47/48%). Meanwhile, 2016 exits indicated Clinton carried Latinos with 71% of the vote

4. They'd also have you believe that 34% of California African Americans view Trump favorably (only 9% voted for him in 2016).

5. Their sample finds Clinton defeated Trump in 2016 by 14 points. The actual margin was more than double that.



Obviously, I left out several glaring issues (like Cox leading the Governor primary), but yeah, you can throw this one in the dumpster...then set the dumpster on fire.

Just posted my gripes with this poll over in the Senate poll forum, but here it is for those that never venture over there: Logged

Pro-Life Single Issue Voter



Concerned Citizen



Posts: 8,232





Political Matrix

E: 8.39, S: 7.83





ExtremeRepublicanConcerned CitizenPosts: 8,232E: 8.39, S: 7.83 Re: CA-Gravis: Cox 23, Newsom 22 « Reply #14 on: May 11, 2018, 10:56:59 pm » I'm holding out a bit of hope in this race. I think Cox can keep it within single digits and has a real chance if Newsom slips up (which is quite possible). I have been kind of hoping that Newsom will have some big scandal come out right before the jungle primary so that Democrats don't really have enough time to consolidate, and we wind up with Cox vs. Allen in California, with several Democrats just behind Allen.



Seriously, though, I think placing first in the jungle would be a big morale booster for the Cox campaign and could give them momentum into the general election. Logged

mds32





Posts: 1,083







Jr. MemberPosts: 1,083 Re: CA-Gravis: Cox 23, Newsom 22 « Reply #16 on: May 12, 2018, 12:51:46 am » Quote from: ExtremeConservative on May 11, 2018, 10:56:59 pm I'm holding out a bit of hope in this race. I think Cox can keep it within single digits and has a real chance if Newsom slips up (which is quite possible). I have been kind of hoping that Newsom will have some big scandal come out right before the jungle primary so that Democrats don't really have enough time to consolidate, and we wind up with Cox vs. Allen in California, with several Democrats just behind Allen.



Seriously, though, I think placing first in the jungle would be a big morale booster for the Cox campaign and could give them momentum into the general election.



I'll say this, it'll give the GOP a morale boost in CA in general. It'll help prove to Cox that he can probably keep the race below a 20-point loss which the CA GOP will need in order to attempt to save their House seats. I'll say this, it'll give the GOP a morale boost in CA in general. It'll help prove to Cox that he can probably keep the race below a 20-point loss which the CA GOP will need in order to attempt to save their House seats. Logged

KingSweden





Posts: 11,252







Atlas IconPosts: 11,252 Re: CA-Gravis: Cox 23, Newsom 22 « Reply #20 on: May 13, 2018, 07:46:02 pm » Quote from: ExtremeConservative on May 11, 2018, 10:56:59 pm I'm holding out a bit of hope in this race. I think Cox can keep it within single digits and has a real chance if Newsom slips up (which is quite possible). I have been kind of hoping that Newsom will have some big scandal come out right before the jungle primary so that Democrats don't really have enough time to consolidate, and we wind up with Cox vs. Allen in California, with several Democrats just behind Allen.



Seriously, though, I think placing first in the jungle would be a big morale booster for the Cox campaign and could give them momentum into the general election.



EC - while I disagree with your politics Ive always thought of you as a clear-eyed observer/poster. I hope you dont actually believe Cox will come within single digits EC - while I disagree with your politics Ive always thought of you as a clear-eyed observer/poster. I hope you dont actually believe Cox will come within single digits Logged

President Johnson





Posts: 13,460







Atlas IconPosts: 13,460 Re: CA-Gravis: Cox 23, Newsom 22 « Reply #23 on: May 14, 2018, 02:18:32 pm » It would be funny if Cox in fact comes out on top with Newsom second. It's obviously not going to happen, but would be funny. I'm sure some Trumpers would start pretending that California is heavily trending Republican. Logged