by Vince Verhei

The Denver Broncos' dramatic upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers may have stolen the spotlight, but Tim Tebow was not the league's best quarterback on wild card weekend. That honor goes to Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints, which is nothing new - Brees has been by far the league's best passer for weeks now. With the Detroit Lions firmly ground up beneath his shiny gold cleats, Brees now turns his sights west to the San Francisco 49ers, who allowed the fewest points in the NFC this year. Is this the defense that can stop the unstoppable?

Brees' performance against Detroit - 33-of-43 for 466 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and only two sacks - works out to 359 DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement - more info available here). Football Outsiders' game-by-game database goes back to 1992. In that time only one quarterback has posted a better performance, and that game was in the playoffs too: Kurt Warner's 29-of-33, 379-yard, five-touchdown game against Green Bay in the first round of the 2009 playoffs. Brees' numbers may not look historically great, but he gets a big boost in DYAR for playing so well against Detroit, which was one of the league's better pass defenses this year (seventh in yards per pass allowed, fifth in interceptions).

For Brees, though, they were just his latest victim. In the final two months of the regular season, Brees ripped the entire league to shreds, averaging 341 yards per game, completing 72 percent of his passes, with 27 touchdowns, four interceptions, and only five sacks. The Saints went 8-0 in that stretch, including four wins against playoff teams, averaging 35.9 points per game.

Does San Francisco have a chance of stopping this juggernaut? We may be able to find an answer in New Orleans' passing tendencies. At Football Outsiders, we sort passes by distance into four categories: short (within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage), mid (6 to 15 yards downfield), deep (16 to 25 yards), and bomb (26 or more yards). Despite the highlights you've seen showing Saints marching into the end zone with long touchdown passes (and there have been many), New Orleans actually fields one of the shortest-passing attacks in the league. The Saints are third in percentage of short passes, but 21st in rates of mid and deep passes, and dead last percentage of bomb passes.

That tells us what kind of passes Brees likes to throw, but it doesn't tell us which ones he threw well. We can accurately measure Brees' accuracy using success rate. Unlike standard completion percentage, success rate only rewards teams for plays that gain meaningful yardage towards a new set of downs, and also accounts for pass interference penalties. So at which distance does Brees excel? All of the above - the Saints are first or second in success rate in all four distance categories.

San Francisco's defense, meanwhile, is softest against those short passes on which New Orleans relies. The 49ers rank ninth in success rate against bombs; sixth against deep balls; ninth against mid-length passes; and 12th against those critical short routes.

Looks like the 49ers will struggle with covering the Saints' receivers. Can they make up for it by putting Brees on the ground? Not likely. The New Orleans offense ranked third in adjusted sack rate (sacks per pass play, adjusted for down, distance, score, and opponent) this year. San Francisco's defense ranked 22nd in the same category. Big edge for New Orleans here.

By the numbers, it would be a big upset if the San Francisco defense was able to slow down the New Orleans attack. Of course, by the numbers, there was no way Denver should have beaten Pittsburgh on Sunday. And we know how that turned out.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Drew Brees NO 33/43 466 3 0 359 356 4 Brees’ completion rate was 77 percent. That’s good. Even more impressive: He had exactly one "failed completion" on the day, a 2-yard toss to Pierre Thomas on first-and-10. Throw in a couple of sacks and a DPI call, and his success rate was 71 percent, which stretches the limits of believability. He had 21 first downs, including the three touchdowns. 2. Tim Tebow DEN 10/21 316 2 0 208 188 20 Ten completions in 21 attempts won't win too many playoff games, but when those ten completions average 31.6 yards each, it'll do. In addition to his passing numbers, Tebow also rushed nine times for 51 yards. Nine of those completions and four of those runs gained first downs, including three total touchdowns. Tebow threw four short passes, six at middle distance, five deep, and a whopping seven bombs. On those seven long throws, he went 4-of-6 for 179 yards, and also drew 32 yards on a defensive pass interference call. 3. Eli Manning NYG 24/32 277 3 0 155 148 6 In the first two quarters of the New York Giants' 24-2 win over Atlanta, Manning went 10-of-13 passing, but gained only 60 yards and three first downs (including a touchdown). Three of those completions lost yards. Manning was also sacked and gave up a safety on an intentional grounding penalty. That worked out to 2 DYAR. And then came the second half: 13-of-18 for 217 yards, eight first downs (including two touchdowns), 146 DYAR. 4. Matt Stafford DET 28/43 380 3 2 143 149 -6 At the end of the third quarter, Stafford was 20-of-31 for 288 yards with no sacks or interceptions. He had thrown for 15 first downs, including two touchdowns, good for 158 DYAR. And the Lions were behind 24-21. Things quickly got out of hand and Stafford threw a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions in desperate situations, but he also threw for 92 more yards, another touchdown, and four more first downs. 5. T.J. Yates HOU 11/20 159 1 0 59 59 0 At halftime, Yates was 6-of-13 for 79 yards and a sack, good for just 16 DYAR, and the Texans were up 17-10 thanks only to a defensive score. In the third quarter, though, he went 4-of-6 for 76 yards (and another sack), with each completion gaining a first down, including a 40-yard touchdown, for 45 DYAR. He had only one pass in the fourth, a 4-yard completion to Andre Johnson. That was -2 DYAR. 6. Matt Ryan ATL 24/41 199 0 0 0 11 -12 We touched on this in the Audibles thread, but it’s amazing how conservative Atlanta’s game plan was. Only 13 of Ryan’s passes traveled 10 or more yard past the line of scrimmage, and only two of them went more than 20 yards downfield. As a result, only six of his completions gained 10 or more yards, and none gained more than 21. 7. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 22/40 289 1 1 -39 -44 5 Late in the first quarter, the Steelers had the ball in the red zone, nursing a 3-0 lead. Roethlisberger’s next nine dropbacks resulted in one interception, one sack, six incompletions, and just one completed pass — a 7-yard gain on third-and-10. By the time Roethlisberger threw for another first down, Denver was ahead 20-6. He played better in the second half to force overtime, but it’s largely his fault that a comeback was necessary. He was also sacked four times in his last 11 dropbacks. 8. Andy Dalton CIN 27/42 257 0 3 -40 -48 9 The Texans defense forced Dalton to check down repeatedly -- he threw 24 short passes (including nine at or behind the line of scrimmage), 11 at middle distance, four deep passes, and four bombs. On those deep and bomb passes, he went 2-of-7 for 36 yards with two interceptions, plus a 52-yard defensive pass interference penalty on a throw to A.J. Green.

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Arian Foster HOU 153 2 29 0 76 62 14 In 24 carries, Foster was stuffed for no gain or a loss only twice, with 15 runs of at least 4 yards and four carries for 10 or more yards, capped off by a 42-yarder. Including his two scores, he ran for seven first downs on the day. Foster also caught each of the three passes thrown his way for 29 yards and two more first downs, converting on second-and-9 and second-and-10. 2. Pierre Thomas NO 66 1 55 0 63 28 35 Remarkable production in limited opportunity. In only eight carries, Thomas had gains of 31 and 18 yards, plus a 1-yard touchdown and an 8-yard gain on first down. He also caught each of the six passes thrown his way for 55 yards. Four of those catches gained 10 yards or more, and another gained 8 yards for first down. That’s 14 total plays and 10 total successes. 3. Darren Sproles NO 51 2 34 0 57 37 20 Slightly less remarkable production in slightly more opportunity. Sproles rushed 10 times for 51 yards, and though he was hit for no gain or a loss three times, he also had two touchdowns and two other first downs. He caught four of the five passes thrown his way for 34 yards, and while only one of those catches led to a first down, all four qualified as successes. 4. Isaac Redman PIT 121 0 21 0 57 50 7 Redman didn't play like a backup against Denver, running 17 times for 121 yards and seven first downs. First 11 carries: 52 yards, three first downs. Last four carries: 69 yards, four first downs. Redman was stopped for no gain just once all day, and had three runs of ten or more yards, capped off by a 32-yarder on third-and-2. He also caught both of the passes thrown his way for 21 yards, although one of those catches was a 12-yard gain on third-and-26. 5. Brandon Jacobs NYG 92 0 8 0 26 28 -2 Jacobs' 14 carries led to five first downs, including gains of 34, 15, and 14 yards. He also caught each of the two passes thrown his way for 4 yards each.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Willis McGahee DEN 61 0 0 0 -39 -39 0 McGahee rushed 19 times for 61 yards against Pittsburgh, an average of 3.2 yards apiece. He had as many first downs (two) as fumbles, and was stuffed for no gain or a loss three times. Meanwhile, only six of his carries gained 4 or more yards, and his longest carry of the day gained only 11 yards.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Calvin Johnson DET 12 15 211 17.6 2 109 Johnson had something of a slow start, catching three passes in five targets for 43 yards in the first quarter. He then caught seven passes in a row, for 18, 13, 21, 15, 21, 42, and 9 yards. His next pass fell incomplete, but in his last two plays he made good with catches of 17 and 12 yards. He had ten catches for 10 or more yards. Only one man could match or top that this year: Johnson himself, who had 11 10-yard gains against Green Bay in Week 17. That's 21 10-yard gains in back-to-back weeks. Cowboys receiver Miles Austin only had 21 10-yard catches in his 10 starts this season. In 2011, Calvin Johnson was the best receiver in the game, and he went out on top of his game. 2. Demaryius Thomas DEN 4 7 204 51.0 1 92 Thomas’ longest three catches went for 51, 58, and 80 yards, and he also drew a 32-yard DPI call. Nobody had four 30-yard pass plays in a single game in the regular season. Only five men had even three 30-yarders in a game. One of them was Thomas himself, against Minnesota in Week 13. The others: San Diego’s Vincent Jackson against Chicago in Week 11; Indianapolis’ Reggie Wayne against Carolina in Week 12; New England’s Rob Gronkowski against Washington in Week 14; and Detroit’s Calvin Johnson against Green Bay in Week 17. That's good company. 3. Marques Colston NO 7 7 120 17.1 0 66 In addition to the numbers listed above, Colston also drew a 23-yard DPI call. Seven of the passes thrown Colston’s way resulted in first downs. The other was caught for a 13-yard gain on second-and-2, but Colston fumbled the ball away at the end of the play. (If he hadn’t fumbled, he still would have finished third this week.) 4. Devery Henderson NO 2 2 64 32.0 1 46 Henderson’s two plays both came on first down. One was a gain of 23, the other was a 41-yard touchdown. 5. Robert Meachem NO 4 8 111 27.8 1 37 Yes, literally half of the top backs and receivers of the week played for New Orleans. In related news, Drew Brees is good. Meachem barely made the list — his first six targets resulted in two catches, 14 yards, and one first down. He got two more throws to close out the game though, and made them count. The first was a 56-yard touchdown (on second-and-17, no less), the other a 41-yarder.