Looks like an “I told you so” is in order. When I looked at Typhoon Lupit before midnight EDT on October 22, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had indicated that dry air had gotten into the circulation and so they downgraded Lupit to a Tropical Storm. The forecast still called for the storm to linger just north of Luzon, Philippines for a few days until a trof developed in a weakness in the ridge to the north and then it would pick up the storm and take it north. I had noted last night that I had observed on the Total Precipitable Water loop that it appeared that Lupit had already begun moving north, though it was so few frames worth, I could not be certain that it wasn’t just a wobble.

Well, it wasn’t just a wobble. It has indeed been drifting north and now north-northeast, or away from the Philippines. The trof will continue to pick up the storm and it will slowly increase forward speed to the north-northeast and then northeast. So much so that I doubt this guy ends up being any problems for anything beside shipping interest. The storm simply took too much time to get to the Philippines. It stuck around long enough for the steering environment to change and now it would appear that the Philippines, and everyone else is in good shape. Or, you may say that prayers were answered. Either way, it seems very unlikely that Lupit will be adversely affecting any major land masses, though coastal regions of Japan will probably monitor the storm closely until it has moved sufficiently north to northeast to eliminate any landfall potential there.