Not a single provision of the Minsk Agreements has been implemented 100%. The most important provision, the ceasefire, is being violated every day.

The main disagreements between Ukraine and Russia concern the sequence of events in which the Minsk Agreements have to be fulfilled.

Immediately after Minsk-1 was signed, Russia started insisting Ukraine fulfill the political part of the agreements before security measures are implemented, i.e. that Ukraine passes amendments to its Constitution and holds elections in ORDLO before it regains control of its border and before a ceasefire is established. Ukraine insisted security comes first. As Minsk-1 did not contain any clear sequence of events, arguments continued amid active warfare.

During the period between Minsk-1 and Minsk-2, Russia continued an assault on the Donetsk airport, attacked the Debaltseve railway hub, and used all the heavy artillery it had, including “Tulip” 240-mm self-propelled mortars and “Buratino” heavy jet flamethrowers, which many consider to be the most powerful non-nuclear weapon on the planet. After Minsk-2, the Russian-separatist forces continued the assault on Debaltseve, led intense battles for Shyrokyne, and attempted an unsuccessful blitzkrieg under Mariinka. Both sides advanced into the grey areas.

Regarding the ceasefire, it is being violated each day, with each side accusing the other of being the first to start. An analysis of OSCE data by the German newspaper FAZ in August 2016 showed that both sides are guilty of violations, but the violations of the Russian-separatist forces “predominate”; a follow-up analysis in October 2016 showed the Ukrainian side violated the ceasefire more often. Heavy weapons have not been withdrawn. As well, OSCE observers who should monitor them are regularly being hampered in movement; more restrictions are carried out by the Russian-separatist forces. Russian-separatist forces have also been shooting down or jamming the OSCE’s drones. The OSCE monitors are allowed to monitor only 2 out of 11 checkpoints on the Russian-Ukrainian border, allowing the inflow of weapons and personnel from Russia to continue freely.

Minsk-2, which specified that Ukraine regains control over its border on the day after elections are held in ORDLO, limited the Ukrainian side in diplomatic maneuvers. However, Ukraine found reasons to refuse to organize and recognize elections in the conflicted territories. Ukraine’s leadership says it’s necessary first to stop hostilities, proclaim a full ceasefire, withdraw military equipment and free Donbas from the Russian military. Russia claims that it doesn’t have its military in Donbas, and the ones who are there are volunteers and are part of the local “police units” which were OK’d by the Agreements.

Despite the active military offensives by the Russian-separatist forces after Minsk-2, Ukraine did adopt some political provisions required by the Minsk Agreements, partly because of western pressure. Hot on the heels of Minsk-1, on 16 September 2014 Ukraine’s parliament passed the bill “On the special order of local governance in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.” It outlined the amnesty, an extended status of the Russian language, cross-border cooperation with Russian regions, and “local police units” created by local councils in the ORDLO. In March 2015, after Minsk-2, this law was amended to the effect that most of its provisions would come into force only after local elections under Ukrainian law and monitored by international observers would take place.

As well, on 31 August 2015, the Ukrainian parliament adopted constitutional amendments for decentralization required by the Minsk Agreements, which included a reference to the “specifics of executing local governance in certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts” which would be defined by a separate law. The vote, done in the presence of US Special Envoy to Ukraine Victoria Nuland, was seen by many Ukrainians as unacceptable foreign pressure on Ukraine. Outside the building of parliament, nationalists clashed with the police, resulting in 4 dead and 100 wounded. However, the amendments require a second vote to become law – a step which the Ukrainian authorities will hardly risk in the visible future.

One requirement of the Minsk Protocol has seen more progress than the others – the exchange of hostages. Despite the hostages, prisoners, and “illegally held persons” still not being exchanged between the sides on the agreed “all for all” basis, several exchanges have taken place, the last of them being on 27 December 2017, when 74 Ukrainians returned from ORDLO captivity. Nevertheless, more than 100 remain imprisoned in occupied Donbas, as do at least 66 de facto political prisoners in occupied Crimea and Russia who have become hostages of the conflict, being accused of false crimes and used for propaganda purposes. Despite the overtly political nature of their trials, Russia insists that they are not covered by the Minsk Agreements and are not eligible for such exchanges.