We conducted our final poll for the South Carolina Republican presidential primary on February 18th and 19th, and the results show a sizable surge for the Rubio campaign, placing him within 3 points of Donald Trump.

The horse race:

Trump 27% Rubio 24% Cruz 19% Bush 11% Carson 8% Kasich 7% Undecided 4%

Rubio has increased his support in several key demographics, including the 45-64 and 65+ age cohorts. Rubio is also ahead of Trump in the Lowcountry, a less conservative area of the state with a lower percentage of Republican voters. In our most recent polls, Cruz has hovered around 19%, which he maintains once again.

Trump has managed to improve his ranking within the youngest demographic, and he maintains the highest commitment from voters: 97% of Trump supporters indicated that they do not foresee changing their vote.

For all intents and purposes, the results indicate a very likely Trump win… just don’t be surprised if Rubio fares better than expected.

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