Todd Spangler

Detroit Free Press

►Explanation: How the Free Press missed mark on Michigan projection for Clinton

►Update: Donald Trump wins Michigan by 13,225 votes in final unofficial count

With Michigan still not called early Wednesday, Republican Donald Trump captured the presidency shortly before 3 a.m. in an historic upset as CNN reported that Democrat Hillary Clinton -- heavily favored to win on Tuesday -- phoned Trump to concede her defeat in the race.

Trump -- the first president-elect to not have political or military experience -- appeared at his headquarters in New York City, speaking to supporters with his election a foregone conclusion, even as votes continued to be counted in Michigan. Victories in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as projected by CNN, gave Trump a 288-215 edge in the Electoral College, with 270 needed to win.

Both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, like Michigan, had earlier been considered part of a traditional Democratic "firewall" for Clinton. Pundits had gone into Tuesday's election with Clinton, a former secretary of state, U.S. senator and first lady, showing leads across the nation that in many cases never materialized.

In Michigan, Trump maintained a small 1% lead with 90% of the vote counted and votes still outstanding in the Democratic stronghold of Detroit. But it was clear that even if Clinton did pull out a victory there, it almost certainly wouldn't be enough to change the outcome.

"It is time for us to come together as one united people," Trump said. "I pledge to every citizens .. that I will be president for all Americans."

In Trump, America gets a blunt outsider who has made his career as a businessman, casino developer and reality TV star, and who has broken with Republican orthodoxy to promise to tear up existing trade deals with Mexico and other countries to revitalize American manufacturing, including the auto industry in Michigan. He has specifically targeted Ford Motor Co., saying he would unilaterally slap a 35% tariff on any company including Ford if it moved operations to Mexico.

Trump's stunning upset of Clinton came not only against polls showing him trailing, but in the face of a series of controversial statements -- including those in which he spoke of Mexicans as criminals, appeared to make fun of a disabled journalist and called for banning Muslim immigration -- and negative approval rates of greater than 60%.

But Clinton's approval ratings weren't much better. And while Trump appeared to score with disaffected, white, working-class voters with his economic message across the industrial Midwest and Pennsylvania far more successfully than expected; Clinton's strength in urban centers including Detroit, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and elsewhere seemed well under that which turned out for President Barack Obama, whose signature achievement -- passage of the Affordable Care Act -- Trump has promised to turn back, six years after its passage.

Trump -- considered a long shot for the nomination when he announced in 2015 -- somehow navigated through a crowded primary season, quickly picking up support, and then took the fight to Clinton despite her and Obama continually branding him as temperamentally unfit to serve as commander-in-chief.

But Clinton's supposed voters never materialized en masse as the polls -- including those done by the Free Press -- predicted. Earlier on Tuesday, Trump took wins in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, suggesting he might be able to challenge Clinton's lead. But when the returns began to show him leading in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it seemed like Trump could win it all.

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Other key battleground states -- Virginia, Colorado and Nevada -- were called for Clinton earlier Tuesday evening, but they were not enough to stop Trump in states where manufacturing job losses since the 1980s have been severe and many residents feel left behind by globalism and increased immigration.

While Trump had a narrow lead in Michigan and it appeared he could win the state, the Free Press had earlier projected Clinton the winner based on election results data collected from key precincts across the state. Earlier Wednesday morning, Free Press election analyst Tim Kiska was standing by the projection that Clinton would win Michigan.

Clinton had bet heavily on winning in the industrial Midwest because of their traditional strength among Democrats. But the turnout in Wayne County and especially Detroit appeared down. And while Clinton won handily in Oakland County -- 51%-43% with all precincts reporting -- she lost badly in working-class Macomb County, where Trump threw a big rally last Sunday, by double digits.

In recent weeks, Michigan became a last-minute election battleground, even though less than a month ago polls gave Clinton what appeared at the time to be a nearly insurmountable double-digit lead in polls in the state.

As Trump settled down as the election loomed and Republicans initially wary of the volatile, politically inexperienced businessman came home to support their nominee, Clinton's lead narrowed considerably, dropping to 4 points in the latest Free Press poll last week. But that, too, may have missed the level of support for Trump in the state.

That narrowing of the race drew national attention as it appeared that Michigan -- which last voted for a Republican nominee in 1988 when it supported George H.W. Bush, but had long been considered a top target for Trump and his strategy of going after disaffected, white, working-class voters -- was back in play.

Trump and his top surrogates made several visits to the state -- including a well-attended rally at Freedom Hill Amphitheater in Sterling Heights on Sunday before the election, and his closing argument to voters after midnight Tuesday morning in Grand Rapids -- as he worked to break through Clinton's firewall.

Clinton responded with rallies of her own, talking to voters last Friday at Eastern Market in Detroit and visiting the state again on Monday with an appearance at Grand Valley State University in west Michigan, causing national pundits to suspect that her campaign had concerns about holding onto the state. Privately, however, Clinton supporters were said to be cautiously optimistic about holding onto Michigan and the nation.

Obama visited Ann Arbor on Monday as well, giving a speech at the University of Michigan intended to lure millennials to the polls -- and, according to CNN exit polls, it appeared she did win younger voters by a substantial margin. But those same exit polls showed Trump winning every other age bracket in Michigan and taking a 13-point lead among male voters compared to a 9-point lead Clinton had among women in the state.

Those same exit polls also showed Trump winning white voters in the state by a 58%-35% margin -- beating Republican Mitt Romney's margins of four years before.

Earlier in the night, a look at a majority of key precincts across the state by the Free Press' political analyst Kiska indicated that Clinton would win, maintaining a seventh-straight presidential cycle in which the Democrats were expected to hold Michigan. The Free Press called the state on the basis of that analysis, though at 3 a.m. the final votes hadn't been tallied.

Results from 80 key precincts showed Clinton with a slight lead and only slightly underperforming President Barack Obama's margin of victory in those same precincts four years ago.

"I think we're getting a good solid cross section of precincts from across the state," said Kiska. "I just don't see it turning around. It might not be five points, but It's going to be a win for Hillary Clinton."

Republicans questioned the Free Press' decision to call the state, suggesting it was far too early to do so.

What appeared to drive much of the concern about whether Clinton would hold onto Michigan centered on the African-American vote in Detroit, which appeared to be less enthusiastic about supporting her than it was Obama in 2008 and 2012; and the fact that she underperformed in polls that had her winning the state's Democratic primary in March, when low turnout in the city led to a surprise victory for her rival, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Polls in primaries are typically much more volatile than general election polls, but there were still pundits who believed that if the black vote was depressed and conservative voters -- especially those in Macomb County, home of the so-called "Reagan Democrats" who helped propel Ronald Reagan to victory in 1980 and 1984 -- turned out en masse for Trump, he could swing the state to the Republican column.

All along, Trump and his campaign has made Michigan a target, making more than half a dozen visits following the Republican National Convention in July. The reason was simple: Despite Obama's popularity -- he beat Michigan native Mitt Romney by 9 points four years ago -- Trump's "Make America Great Again" message hit hard the idea that the auto industry and industrial Midwest has been decimated by bad trade deals that sent jobs overseas and to Mexico.

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