A few weeks ago, I discovered cfbstats.com , which has made available for download an incredible amount of college football statistics from the last eight seasons. Thanks to them, I plan to apply some of the same techniques I’ve used on NFL numbers over the years to college statistics. If you’re a fan of college football, you’re probably already reading talented writers like Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau , but hopefully I can bring something new to the table for you to enjoy.

There are many differences between college and professional football, but many of the same stats still matter. For quarterbacks, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is still the king of the basic stats , and it is arguably even more important in college where teams play at varying different paces.

There’s a small problem, however, if you want to calculate ANY/A at the college level: the NCAA counts sacks as rush attempts and sack yards lost as negative rushing yards. I manually overrode that decision in my data set, so going forward, all rushing and passing data will include sack data in the preferred manner (keep this in mind when you compare the statistics I present to the “official” ones).



But calculating each quarterback’s ANY/A isn’t enough, as the varying strengths of schedule faced by college quarterbacks are too significant to ignore. So using the method described here, I came up with SOS-adjusted ANY/A for each quarterback in each game last year. This method involves an iterative process, so each quarterback’s performance is adjusted for the strength of the opposing defense, which has a rating that is adjusted for the quarterbacks it faced (including the quarterback in question), and so on, until the ratings converge. The usual caveats apply about defenses and quarterbacks that change in ability level over the course of the year.

Top Quarterbacks in 2012

After estimating sack data and adjusting each quarterback for strength of schedule, we now can rate the 2012 quarterbacks. The table below lists the 50 quarterbacks who added the most passing value over average last year. For each quarterback, I’ve listed his basic passing statistics, ANY/A, SOS, and — for reference only — I’ve included their rushing data, too. The table is sorted by the final column which shows the value added over average. How do we come up with that?

I gave each quarterback credit for his value over the average ANY/A (5.82) for all of major college football over the last 8 years. Let’s use Georgia’s Aaron Murray as an example. He averaged 3.88 ANY/A over average against a schedule that was 0.68 ANY/A tougher than average; that means he gets credit for being 4.56 ANY/A over average against a neutral schedule. Since he had 412 dropbacks last year (386 passes, 26 sacks), we multiply 4.56 by 412 to get his value added over average.

It’s not hard to see why Johnny Manziel won the Heisman: in addition to outstanding passing statistics against tough defenses, he also added approximately 1,539 rushing yards (remember, this excludes sack yardage) and 21 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per carry. Fellow freshman Marcus Mariota of Oregon was also outstanding — he averaged more ANY/A, even when adjusted for SOS — and was also deadly on the ground.

It’s also not hard to see why Geno Smith is expected to be the first quarterback selected in April’s draft. With Murray returning for his senior year, Smith has a good case over everyone else on statistics alone. Matt Barkley is an interesting case: he averaged 8.68 ANY/A against a SOS that was 0.35 ANY/A tougher than average, and added 1,462 yards of value in passing yards in 2011. But Barkley actually increased his NY/A in 2012 compared to 2011. Part of that was due to having a transcendent talent like Marqise Lee have a breakout year last season, but much of Barkley’s “down 2012” is due to the 15 interceptions he threw. The thing to remember is that interceptions are never a great way to judge a young quarterback: if you’re a fan of Barkley’s pro prospects, I think the numbers here tend to put him in a pretty good light. Much of the same can be said for Tyler Wilson, who saw his draft stock decline in 2012 despite him actually averaging more yards per pass last year than he did in 2011. Mike Glennon, who some think may sneak into the first round despite a poor 2012, doesn’t look any better under the advanced stats microscope: he averaged just 6.03 ANY/A against a schedule that was 0.15 ANY/A easier than average.

Perhaps the most interesting name on the table above is Tyler Bray. There are two things that make me very excited about Bray: he’s very young and he’s excellent at avoiding sacks. Bray was a true junior last year, and will be a 21-year-old rookie in the fall. Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman are the only recent players to start at that age in the NFL (Alex Smith and Drew Bledsoe did, too, and Mike Vick saw some spot duty): it’s extremely rare for a 21-year-old to play quarterback in the NFL. But that’s a great thing for Bray’s outlook, as Sean Forman always reminds me. But Bray’s sack rate is even more impressive, particularly in the SEC. Officially, he was sacked just 8 times on 459 dropbacks, a number that would make Peyton Manning or Drew Brees jealous. There’s a whole lot more to being a good quarterback in the NFL than being a good quarterback in college — Tim Tebow has struggled despite his success at Florida and NFL scouts didn’t just randomly place Glennon well above a player like Colby Cameron — but my guess is Bray is undervalued by draftniks who aren’t giving him credit for his outstanding sack rate at such a young age.

Top Pass Defenses

To create the rankings, we needed to rank both the quarterbacks and the defenses, so producing a list of the top defenses takes no extra work. Remember, a positive SOS in the table below means the defenses faced better-than-average quarterbacks. The table below lists all 124 defenses.

Rank Team Pass Att Pass Yard TD INT Sk ANY/A SOS Value 1 Florida 444 2498 7 20 30 3.25 1.15 1763 2 Stanford 550 3349 13 15 57 4.26 0.89 1485 3 LSU 457 2678 15 18 35 3.95 0.88 1353 4 Oregon 515 2979 19 25 28 3.82 0.49 1351 5 Alabama 397 2431 8 18 35 3.64 0.87 1314 6 Arizona State 394 2183 23 21 51 3.07 0.18 1302 7 South Carolina 379 2533 18 15 43 4.6 1.6 1187 8 Florida State 453 2266 13 11 36 3.58 0.03 1108 9 Fresno State 380 2173 15 22 38 2.99 -0.49 979 10 Notre Dame 434 2597 11 16 33 3.99 0.24 964 11 Michigan State 425 2285 10 14 20 3.83 0.12 937 12 Boise State 376 2203 4 18 37 2.95 -0.71 890 13 Oregon State 471 2919 14 20 28 4.23 0.16 870 14 USC 434 2951 20 19 45 4.63 0.46 787 15 Virginia Tech 421 2588 17 13 35 4.61 0.46 757 16 TCU 434 2841 22 21 29 4.62 0.4 740 17 Utah State 475 2708 12 14 42 3.92 -0.47 738 18 Oklahoma 420 2684 11 13 24 4.91 0.69 707 19 Rutgers 422 2788 13 18 25 4.6 0.34 697 20 Kansas State 474 3235 18 18 31 5.1 0.57 651 21 Nebraska 397 2354 18 13 31 4.56 0.23 634 22 Texas 351 2756 16 15 34 5.64 1.44 621 23 Vanderbilt 432 2493 7 11 31 4.19 -0.3 612 24 Washington 394 2565 17 17 27 4.74 0.31 582 25 Georgia 351 2459 13 13 32 5.04 0.65 547 26 Mississippi 427 3205 22 15 38 5.81 1.07 502 27 BYU 378 2329 12 12 34 4.39 -0.34 449 28 Ohio State 457 2922 15 14 30 4.79 -0.14 431 29 Mississippi State 414 2883 17 19 18 5.14 0.29 417 30 Texas A&M 485 3259 17 12 31 5.6 0.58 410 31 Minnesota 404 2426 15 13 26 4.57 -0.31 404 32 Western Kentucky 394 2727 24 13 32 5.63 0.74 392 33 Pittsburgh 414 2524 15 15 24 4.59 -0.36 380 34 Oklahoma State 544 3640 20 11 25 5.94 0.78 374 35 Northern Illinois 509 3121 11 15 38 4.4 -0.76 360 36 North Carolina State 455 3249 20 16 33 5.54 0.43 344 37 Northwestern 497 3257 18 13 28 5.42 0.25 337 38 Missouri 401 2897 19 7 21 6.67 1.58 310 39 Iowa State 475 3449 18 14 15 6.28 1.01 267 40 Wisconsin 464 2711 18 8 31 5.07 -0.21 266 41 Cincinnati 498 3282 13 16 30 4.94 -0.39 258 42 Bowling Green 411 2471 11 10 38 4.37 -0.88 256 43 Georgia Tech 448 3217 23 16 28 5.84 0.47 211 44 San Jose State 439 2892 18 15 42 4.89 -0.6 159 45 Tulsa 481 3195 19 12 51 5.04 -0.53 130 46 Louisville 382 2500 22 11 22 5.62 0.12 129 47 Houston 510 3483 25 19 36 5.29 -0.35 99 48 SMU 540 3616 27 21 24 5.41 -0.24 92 49 North Carolina 424 2963 15 16 28 5.19 -0.49 63 50 Penn State 430 2700 15 10 33 5.06 -0.67 44 51 UCF 480 3048 16 11 27 5.29 -0.46 33 52 Connecticut 381 2544 15 6 32 5.74 0 33 53 San Diego State 443 3062 23 14 33 5.61 -0.16 26 54 Michigan 330 2203 16 7 22 5.75 -0.14 -25 55 UCLA 479 3508 27 15 46 5.97 0.07 -43 56 Texas Tech 365 2493 25 8 19 6.53 0.59 -49 57 Kent State 521 3808 27 23 34 5.54 -0.38 -57 58 Purdue 447 3041 21 14 22 5.7 -0.24 -60 59 Kentucky 367 2757 21 5 26 7.03 1.02 -76 60 California 458 3263 32 14 25 6.46 0.46 -85 61 Buffalo 341 2499 18 13 34 5.51 -0.57 -101 62 Clemson 427 3124 23 13 34 5.95 -0.15 -130 63 Utah 401 2823 18 8 29 6.17 0.03 -137 64 Virginia 395 2501 23 4 17 6.48 0.32 -140 65 North Texas 420 3018 19 11 19 6.31 0.13 -161 66 Auburn 358 2675 20 2 22 7.49 1.2 -182 67 Hawai'i 308 2193 20 9 27 5.93 -0.47 -195 68 Florida International 437 3145 24 10 24 6.51 0.24 -207 69 Maryland 368 2490 24 4 27 6.54 0.2 -208 70 Memphis 434 2928 25 8 29 6.21 -0.08 -220 71 Arkansas State 432 2955 21 13 19 5.92 -0.44 -243 72 Boston College 429 2908 21 10 6 6.49 0.11 -247 73 Ohio 474 2977 26 13 25 5.57 -0.81 -279 74 Syracuse 393 3040 23 9 27 6.88 0.32 -313 75 Wake Forest 411 3201 22 11 25 6.8 0.24 -325 76 Navy 356 2799 16 8 18 7.02 0.34 -326 77 Baylor 569 4206 36 18 19 6.78 0.4 -328 78 Iowa 353 2634 16 10 13 6.65 -0.08 -333 79 Tennessee 446 3390 26 12 17 6.97 0.43 -333 80 South Alabama 368 2840 25 11 24 6.86 0.12 -364 81 Washington State 408 3146 26 15 35 6.21 -0.44 -367 82 Colorado State 363 2427 25 7 20 6.51 -0.33 -394 83 Miami (Florida) 429 3222 15 11 13 6.65 -0.09 -409 84 Arizona 500 3807 25 12 16 7.09 0.45 -423 85 Toledo 501 3781 26 17 23 6.46 -0.2 -445 86 Florida Atlantic 286 2443 20 8 12 8.04 0.66 -466 87 Illinois 288 2324 21 7 22 7.35 0.01 -470 88 Louisiana-Monroe 457 3595 29 16 23 6.86 0.03 -485 89 Kansas 402 3430 26 11 11 8.17 1.16 -493 90 Louisiana-Lafayette 475 3685 21 13 27 6.69 -0.14 -511 91 Middle Tennessee 379 3031 22 12 14 7.26 0.08 -537 92 South Florida 373 3023 17 2 25 7.72 0.55 -538 93 Miami (Ohio) 356 2719 17 12 15 6.5 -0.86 -573 94 Texas State 408 3035 26 14 12 6.75 -0.58 -639 95 Troy 372 3101 26 6 13 8.48 0.94 -664 96 UTEP 384 2950 18 7 20 7.06 -0.45 -682 97 Arkansas 419 3430 24 6 31 7.5 0.15 -691 98 Eastern Michigan 350 2548 18 7 7 7.15 -0.67 -714 99 Southern Mississippi 338 2628 23 5 19 7.6 -0.24 -724 100 Nevada 429 2998 27 6 20 7.02 -0.45 -743 101 Tulane 380 3116 23 15 18 6.98 -0.71 -747 102 Rice 378 3058 21 11 28 6.9 -0.76 -749 103 Massachusetts 351 2839 26 13 12 7.42 -0.46 -750 104 Temple 297 2611 21 4 25 8.33 0.16 -760 105 UNLV 375 3096 19 9 20 7.42 -0.42 -798 106 Marshall 426 3042 30 9 19 7.02 -0.6 -803 107 East Carolina 475 3584 28 10 25 7.08 -0.35 -809 108 Western Michigan 387 2889 19 8 25 6.69 -1.12 -823 109 Army 254 2340 19 7 15 8.6 -0.32 -835 110 Idaho 403 3302 27 9 14 8.01 0.11 -868 111 Indiana 356 2786 23 7 26 7.21 -0.9 -876 112 Duke 389 3474 29 11 25 8.24 0.27 -894 113 Central Michigan 420 3129 23 13 18 6.57 -1.33 -911 114 Air Force 343 2738 19 8 17 7.29 -1.14 -942 115 Wyoming 372 2840 26 6 14 7.78 -0.55 -970 116 UTSA 353 2927 24 10 16 7.7 -0.75 -973 117 Akron 380 2867 30 5 16 7.99 -0.31 -983 118 UAB 356 2935 22 6 19 7.97 -0.49 -990 119 Ball State 427 3319 28 7 20 7.72 -0.54 -1090 120 New Mexico 417 3500 33 11 21 8.08 -0.28 -1114 121 West Virginia 435 4067 38 10 23 9.23 0.64 -1268 122 New Mexico State 381 3057 28 4 11 8.6 -0.67 -1355 123 Colorado 366 3150 39 3 19 9.49 -0.11 -1459 124 Louisiana Tech 495 4085 35 10 20 8.12 -0.71 -1553

Top Quarterback Games in 2012

To come up with the numbers, we had to perform the iterative analysis on the game level, so let’s now take a look at the best games from last year. Number one on the list probably won’t surprise anyone: it was Geno Smith’s ridiculous game against Baylor, where he threw for 656 yards and 8 touchdowns on 51 passes. The table below lists the best 500 games by a quarterback in 2012. It is sorted by the VALUE column, which gives quarterbacks credit for their value over the average ANY/A (5.82) in the same way as mentioned above. Using Smith’s game as an example, he averaged 15.6 ANY/A against Baylor, but that drops to 15.1 with the SOS adjustment. That means he was 9.3 ANY/A over average for 52 dropbacks (51 passes, one sack), which is why he is listed with 483 yards over average in that game. You can use the search box to search by player or team; for example, Johnny Manziel’s top two passing games were against Arkansas and Alabama.

If we do this for quarterbacks, we can do the opposite for defenses. The best game by a defense last year was LSU against Manziel, because they held Manzeil to only 2.1 ANY/A on 56 passes. Considering the SOS adjustment, and that was the top performance by a pass defense in 2012.