The acid test of a scientific theory is whether it makes predictions that eventually come true. So consider this old prediction, from a pair of researchers in Australia and New Zealand. They were summarizing the results of then-primitive computerized forecasts about global warming:

“The available evidence suggests that a warmer world is likely to experience an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events, associated with a more intense hydrological cycle and the increased water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere.”

That was published in 1995, and it was based on research going back to the 1980s. Fast forward to 2014.

In the National Climate Assessment, published last week, researchers in the United States reported that “large increases in heavy precipitation have occurred in the Northeast, Midwest and Great Plains, where heavy downpours have frequently led to runoff that exceeded the capacity of storm drains and levees, and caused flooding events and accelerated erosion.”

The future, it would seem, has arrived.

Climate is a difficult branch of science, full of ambiguities and uncertainties. But scientists can justly claim to have demonstrated some predictive skill about many of the potential implications of the human release of greenhouse gases.