It’s that most wonderful time of the year, folks. That’s right, it’s the holiday season, which means that people like me are frantically trying to come up with things to write about that don’t take a ton of time so that we can piss off to our vacations! And what more time-honored sportswriter tradition is there than prematurely predicting year-end awards two months before the All-Star break? That’s right, there isn’t one. I’ve got a case full of NBA MVP hot takes sitting in a case mounted on my wall with a bit of glass over it that reads “Break in case of emergency.”

It’s way too soon to choose an MVP, but for the purposes of this column, let’s pretend it’s not. This year’s crop of candidates is as strong as it’s ever been, which makes this exercise slightly less ridiculous. We have multiple guys on pace for historically significant seasons, so this will at least be less wanky than all the years people refused to vote for Kobe Bryant because he didn’t “play the game the right way.” By the way, Kobe Bryant’s 2005-06 season was one of the greatest of all time (shoutout to Slam magazine for pointing this out on Twitter recently), statistically, but Steve Nash won the MVP. If that doesn’t show you the rather tenuous nature of the MVP system as it stands now, then nothing will.

Let’s look at the top three candidates as of mid-December and try to suss out who has the upper hand. Obviously, some guys who deserve a look didn’t make the cut, so these are my honorable mentions: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant. Sorry, guys.

LeBron James

If LeBron wins this year, that would give him five MVP awards, tying him with his own personal measuring stick, Michael Jordan. If you think King James isn’t making this a priority, shaking hands with voters, and kissing their babies, you’re dead wrong. By his own admission, he’s chasing a ghost that played in Chicago. He wants it, and he might get it for sentimental reasons.

So far, he’s averaging 25 points and nine assists a game and having his third best season of his career in effective field goal percentage, per Basketball Reference. On the down side, he’s also on pace for his worst turnovers per game average in his career. Such is life for a guy who clearly loves distributing the ball.

The case is always there for LeBron to be an MVP, since he’s easily the most valuable player on any team he plays on, but there’s the age-old debate about whether or not MVP truly means most valuable or is simply a player of the year award.

Russell Westbrook

If we awarded the MVP to the guy who has made me throw my remote out the window so that my wife can’t change the channel as easily when said player is playing, then it would immediately go to Russ. It’s been an absolute pleasure watching him do his job this season. He’s averaging a triple-double (30.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 10.6 assists), his effective field goal percentage is 45.8, and his PER is 28.5. LeBron has a higher effective field goal percentage, at 56.3, but he has a lower PER (26.3). The historical importance of the triple-double average sways me towards Westbrook, plus he’s slightly more valuable to his team than LeBron. If James left the Cavs, they’d still likely be a mid-tier playoff team in a bad conference. If Westbrook left the Thunder, I think they’d be quarantined. His usage rate is 41.2 this season, which would be the all-time record. By the way, Russ is already number two on that list, behind … Kobe Bryant.

James Harden

James Harden certainly passes the eye test, assuming “the eye test” means that you want to stab your eyes out with a salad fork when you watch someone play. No offense to James Harden, but his interminable top-of-the-key dribbles, propensity for drawing convoluted fouls that grind the game to a halt, and other classic Harden-isms make it difficult to want to vote for him. Plus, he got his coach fired and drove Dwight Howard out of town last year. That shouldn’t matter at all, but they do contribute to the aforementioned Black Mamba Syndrome that prevented number 24 from winning MVPs in some of his most prolific seasons. (This is the last Kobe reference, I promise.) People just plain did not like him.

A case could be made that without the Beard, the Rockets wouldn’t be a playoff team either, but while he’s clearly very important to Houston both as a leader and as a statistical necessity to win basketball games, Westbrook is slightly more necessary. Harden is fourth in usage rate to Westbrook’s first. What stat better illustrates someone’s pure value to a team than usage rate? Still, Harden is having a great season, averaging 27.6 points per game, 7.8 rebounds, and 11.8 assists. All three of these guys could end up averaging a triple-double when the season is over. All three are cornerstones of their teams. All three are in the top five in total turnovers, so no one has been particularly careful with the ball. None of them are in the top 50 in defensive rating. So…

Your pre-Christmas MVP is Russell Westbrook. All things being relatively equal, Westbrook is the one on track to make history. His team is the one that would truly implode without him. The narrative of him winning the MVP after being jilted by Kevin Durant will be irresistible to voters. He also has a better in-game defiant snarl than either of his opponents. Russ, your pre-Christmas MVP trophy is in the mail. Please enjoy.