Throughout our planet’s space-faring history, there have been two major impediments to putting a lot of private citizens into orbit. Only governments have had spacecraft, and there have been only a few government-controlled space stations to visit. But now that may finally changing in a big way. Within less than two years, both Boeing and SpaceX should complete development of private capsules that will carry people into space. Two other companies, Blue Origin and Sierra Nevada, are also developing orbital spacecraft.

The second part of the problem may soon be addressed as well. Less than a week after the launch of Bigelow Aerospace’s experimental 13-foot habitat to the International Space Station, the company has announced an agreement with United Launch Alliance to deliver two much larger B330 habitats into orbit by 2020. Each of these habitats, which will be fully self-sufficient, has 330 cubic meters of habitable volume—about one-third that of the space station.

Financial details of the agreement were not released, but the move is significant because of its potential to become the first truly commercial human activity in space—people launching aboard private spacecraft and staying in a privately developed habitat. “We are standing on the very threshold of an expanded and permanent human presence beyond our planet, and the foundation for that future will be the commercialization of low-Earth orbit,” said Tory Bruno, president and chief executive of United Launch Alliance, at a news conference this week.

Bigelow Aerospace is most definitely thinking commercial. Robert Bigelow, the hotel entrepreneur who founded the company, characterized the large, expandable habitats as “time shares.” The first participants might well be space tourists, staying perhaps a week, or they may be commercial researchers. There will be an opportunity for naming and branding of the space habitats, perhaps by an anchor tenant. The goal of sponsorship would be to keep costs lower for users or individuals. “We would love to see Disney have a Disney space station,” he said. “Wouldn’t that be cool?”

Aside from mass, the primary limitation of launching objects into space is that all structures must fit inside a rocket’s payload fairing. Because expandables lack a rigid structure, they can be folded inside this limited diameter, and once in space, they can be inflated to create a massive amount of volume. With their composite structure, expandables should offer as good or better protection from orbital debris and radiation as the aluminum shell of the International Space Station.

Let’s work together, NASA... please

Despite the push for commercial viability, Bigelow said his company would still like to work with NASA when the first B330 is launched. Although the orbital mechanics of delivering the structure to the space station are not simple and there are myriad technical concerns about connecting such a large object to the station, Bigelow said he would still like to see the first B330 tested at the national laboratory.

Such a test would provide NASA with a “terrific opportunity” to assess the facility, he said, and give the Bigelow company confidence in a new suite of life-support technologies. But getting permission will require running through a gauntlet of technical challenges and questions, from convincing station engineers that the large B330 will not perturb the station during its expansion to working with the laboratory’s international partners.

During a news conference this week, Bigelow was asked why he didn’t just want to fly autonomously and avoid the headache of dealing with NASA. “That is really attractive, believe me,” he acknowledged. “However, that isn’t in the best interests of NASA. The station offers the best choice of the two choices, and our hope is that NASA will be the primary customer.”

If NASA agrees to the test, it may also benefit Bigelow by helping to pay for the launch of the module to the station.

NASA declined comment on the possibility of docking a B330 to the space station, reiterating only that it had signed a NextSTEP agreement with the company to study the possibility of using its expandable technology for deep space habitation. That contract is worth up to $1 million—and potentially much more—if NASA selects the technology for additional development.

NASA and Bigelow have already partnered to launch the company’s much smaller BEAM module to the station. Beginning early Saturday morning, flight controllers at NASA’s Johnson Space Center will use the space station's robotic arm to remove BEAM from the unpressurized trunk of SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft and attach it to the station’s Tranquility module. The Bigelow module will be expanded at the end of May; astronauts will enter it in early June if all goes well.

The potential use of a B330 module on station highlights the difficult balance NASA must strike as it seeks to move beyond low-Earth orbit toward exploring deeper space near the Moon—and possibly sending humans to Mars in a few decades. While it looks to deep space, NASA would also like to leverage the value of the its space station, which will fly for at least another eight years, to help private companies commercialize low-Earth orbit. But in doing so, it does not want to completely subsidize those businesses and end up being the sole customer.

And that’s the biggest question facing Bigelow and United Launch Alliance. How big is the market beyond NASA in low-Earth orbit? So far, because of high launch costs and very limited commercial activity, no markets have developed to make space profitable. With a private launch company and a private hotelier seeking to offer such opportunities to commercialize space, will anyone show up to use them?

“The vision is the most exciting part of this,” Bruno said. “This is innovation. The real thing. We needed a place to go and a way to get there and get back. The funnest part about this type of endeavour is that we just don’t know what will happen now.”