Carly Fiorina, Ted Cruz in Phoenix at key point in race

Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz, two Republican presidential contenders in striking distance of the GOP’s top tier, are visiting Phoenix as the "Summer of Trump" gives way to a post-Labor Day stretch when Americans traditionally start taking politics and the White House race more seriously.

Celebrity billionaire Donald Trump still tops national polls and decisively leads the Republicans in the key early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But many political experts are skeptical that Trump and, to a lesser degree, second-running conservative retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson will be able to maintain their anti-politician, outsider appeal.

While there is no guarantee Trump or Carson will fade -- and, in fact, Trump's lead has grown -- such a development could mean a big opportunity for Fiorina and Cruz as well as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.

On Wednesday, the 10 top Republicans in the 17-candidate field will reassemble at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., for a second set of debates to be telecast on CNN.

Fiorina, who has never held elected office but previously ran for the U.S. Senate from California, could appeal to Trump and Carson voters who are fed up with career politicians. Cruz, a "tea party"-style conservative who has been courting the right-leaning religious vote, likewise is in alignment with many Trump supporters and could reap a windfall of support if Trump flames out.

Fiorina, a former Hewlett-Packard CEO who was fired in 2005, and Cruz, a first-term U.S. senator from Texas, respectively will address the National Federation of Republican Women's convention at the JW Marriott Phoenix Desert Ridge Resort & Spa on Friday and Saturday. Fiorina also will headline a sold-out Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry breakfast on Friday morning at the Scottsdale Plaza Resort.

Fiorina and Cruz won praise for their performances in Fox News Channel's Aug. 6 debates, with Fiorina's subsequent growth in polls propelling her into next week's prime-time debate. Last month, Fiorina was relegated to the so-called "Happy Hour" debate with other lower-rated hopefuls.

According to the rolling average of polls at the RealClearPolitics website, Cruz is running fourth behind Trump, Carson and Bush; Rubio is fifth and Fiorina is sixth.

"She's (Fiorina) a great campaigner, she's smart and articulate, and she's got the ability to become a major player if she continues to do well in debates," said Charlie Black, a longtime Republican strategist who worked on U.S. Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential bid, which also gave Fiorina exposure as a campaign surrogate.

On Thursday, Carly for America, the Super PAC backing Fiorina's presidential bid, announced former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, who made an unsuccessful gubernatorial run last year, and Karrin Taylor, DMB Associates executive vice president, will serve as its Arizona co-chairs.

Christine Jones, the former GoDaddy executive who also ran for Arizona governor in 2014, said she has known Fiorina for years from their work in the tech industry and likes her. Jones hasn't officially endorsed Fiorina, but co-hosted a local fundraiser for her Thursday.

"People are seeing over the past number of weeks, particularly since the debate, what I've been talking about, which is that she's smart and she's articulate and she's accomplished," Jones said. "People are starting to catch on to the fact that she's a legit candidate and this is not an ego ride for her."

In perhaps a sign of Fiorina's rising standing, Trump was quoted this week in Rolling Stone insulting her physical appearance and suggesting that no one would vote for her because of the way her face looks. "Maybe, just maybe, I'm getting under his skin a little bit because I am climbing in the polls," Fiorina shot back Wednesday in a Fox News interview.

However, a national CNN poll conducted earlier this month and released Thursday seemed to undermine her remark. It had Trump in first with 32 percent and Fiorina far behind with just 3 percent, her worst poll showing since before the "Happy Hour" debate. Its margin of error for the sample is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Cruz, who was at 7 percent in the new CNN poll, also has taken a higher profile by co-starring with Trump at Wednesday's "tea party"-organized "Stop the Iran Deal Rally" in Washington, D.C., and by publicly siding with Kim Davis, the Kentucky county clerk who was jailed for contempt of court for refusing to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

"I stand with Kim Davis. Unequivocally," Cruz said last week in a written statement. "I stand with every American that the (President Barack) Obama administration is trying to force to choose between honoring his or her faith or complying with a lawless court opinion."

As the anti-Iran deal rally demonstrated, Cruz "pretty much has stayed as close to Trump as Trump will allow him," said Mark P. Jones, a fellow in political science at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston. And unlike other Republican candidates, Cruz has steadfastly refused to attack Trump.

"His general strategy is that late this fall or early next year, the Trump bubble, (will) if not burst, will at least deflate," Mark Jones said. "At that time, Cruz hopes to be able to present himself as the most viable candidate who shares many of the positions with Trump that Republican primary voters like and also has a more realistic chance of actually capturing the GOP nomination."

Cruz also has shown an impressive ability to raise money both from big donors and small donors. He needs to stay competitive in the early caucus and primary states and make it to March 1, when several Southern states, including Cruz's home state of Texas, hold primaries, Mark Jones said.

Cruz's struggling Texas GOP presidential rival, former Gov. Rick Perry, is "on life support" and not expected to provide much competition for Cruz at that point in the race, Jones said. Perry is now polling at less than 1 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

Black, the veteran Republican strategist, said Cruz, like other conservative contenders in the race, unexpectedly found himself smothered by the Trump media phenomenon. He warned that Cruz's apparent decision to stick by Trump in hopes of not alienating or angering his backers in case of a Trump implosion is risky and could misfire.

"Trump's not going to win in the end, but he's not going to fall apart, either," said Black, who is staying neutral in the 2016 campaign.

Jaime Molera, a Phoenix-based Republican political consultant, said the presidential race is still wide open and it's still early enough that middle-tier GOP candidates could break out.

"Particularly Fiorina, I think, is in good position to make a move, especially as the ones at the top stumble," Molera said. "Ted Cruz, same way. Both of them clearly have access to a lot of resources, which makes them players."