According to data recently published in BP’s 2016 Statistical Review Asian oil production remained at around 8.3 mb/d for 4 years now.

Fig 1: Asian oil production

We see the dominance of China (52% of total). The peak for all other Asian countries together was already in 2000, 15 years ago, followed by decline of around 0.9% pa which has now accumulated to around 600 kb/d (equivalent to 60% of Australia’s consumption). Since 2000, China was able to offset this decline and grow the Asian system but this has stalled now as confirmed by the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China.

Fig 2: China crude oil production

Data are from here: http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01

No matter how this Asian production plateau evolves it is dwarfed by ever rising Asian consumption. Let’s have a look at net oil imports country by country, alphabetically:

Fig 3: Australia’s oil balance

Fig 4: China oil balance

Fig 5: India oil balance

Indian oil production declined by 1.1% pa since 2011.

Fig 6: Indonesia’s oil balance

Fig 7: Malaysia’s oil balance

Fig 8: Thailand’s oil balance

Fig 9: Vietnam’s oil balance

All together now

Fig 10: Asia-Pacific net oil imports

HOMEWORK for governments

who still want to build more motorways, airports and other oil dependent infrastructure: If production and consumption trends continue, where will the oil come from for the next 10, 20 years?

In Part 2 we’ll have a look at this question

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Definition of oil in BP Statstical Review

“Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids – the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately)”

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