by Aaron Schatz

This week sees a little bit more churn on the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and San Francisco re-takes the top spot. Green Bay remains number two, while the New York Giants drop to third after their close victory over Washington. Chicago is fourth and Denver fifth, still the top team in the AFC despite a 3-3 record. (Vince Verhei talks about that in an ESPN Insider piece here.) The split between the NFC and the AFC got even worse this week, and as of this week the NINE lowest teams in DVOA are all AFC teams. There's a huge gap between "good" and "bad" AFC teams. The Steelers and Jets are 16th and 17th. Then teams 18 through 23 are all NFC, and teams 24 through 32 are all AFC.

Last year, offense reigned in the NFL, as the season was mostly dominated by three teams -- New England, New Orleans, and Green Bay -- that had historically great offense but poor defense. Things aren't quite as imbalanced this season, because the top offenses aren't playing at that same historically great level, but it is still worth noting that the five best offensive teams make up five of the top six teams by total DVOA: the teams mentioned above, plus New England but minus Chicago. Unlike last year, however, these teams with strong offense do not all have terrible defense. San Francisco, Green Bay, New York, and Denver all have above-average defenses this season, and even the Patriots are a reasonable 20th in defensive DVOA (which splits into 29th against the pass and fourth against the run).

Chicago is the big exception, the team near the top of this year's ratings that is built on defense and special teams. Chicago has had defensive DVOA of -15% or better in every game this year, and it's time to start tracking where the Bears stand historically. It's particularly interesting to do so since this is the first year we'll be tracking a team's historical ranking using the new DVOA that is normalized for each season's offensive level. The Bears end up with the fifth-best defense tracked by DVOA since 1991, and the best defense since the 2002 Bucs.

BEST DEFENSIVE DVOA AS OF WEEK 7, 1991-2012 YEAR TEAM DVOA 1991 NO -49.0% 1991 PHI -42.8% 2002 TB -38.8% 1997 SF -37.1% 2012 CHI -34.6% 2011 BAL -34.4% 1993 PIT -33.5% 1996 GB -32.8% 2000 MIA -29.6% 1994 DAL -29.1%

Yes, two teams from 1991 are that far ahead even though the 1991 numbers league-wide are normalized to 0%. Much like three offenses were dramatically better than everyone else in 2011, so too were three defenses (New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Washington) dramatically better than everyone else in 1991.

The Bears are imbalanced on offense, one of a number of teams that are much better running the ball than passing the ball, or vice versa. Right now the Bears rank 10th in offensive DVOA running, but 22nd passing. Other teams with a big split include:

Green Bay is first passing, 17th rushing

Atlanta is ninth passing, 24th rushing

Pittsburgh is sixth passing, 29th rushing

Oakland -- this one is a colossal surprise, given the presence of Darren McFadden -- is 12th passing and dead last rushing

Baltimore is 19th passing, third rushing

Buffalo is 23rd passing, sixth rushing

Seattle is 21st passing, seventh rushing

Carolina is 24th passing, 11th rushing

What about defenses with a big split like New England? Other teams include:

Atlanta is fifth against the pass, 27th against the run

Tampa Bay is 20th against the pass, first against the run

Detroit is 22nd against the pass, 12th against the run

San Diego is 21st agaisnt the pass, eighth against the run

* * * * *

All stats pages should now be updated (or, at least, will be in the next few minutes) except for playoff odds. Unfortunately, Mike Harris has been having some computer difficulties, so we won't have those updated until later this evening. FO Premium stats will also be updated later this evening. I will post below when those items are updated.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through seven weeks of 2012, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

[ad placeholder 3]

Because it is early in the season, opponent strength is at only 70 percent; it will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 8.5 percent of DAVE (19 percent for teams with only six games played).

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 SF 35.0% 4 32.0% 2 5-2 18.0% 5 -18.6% 4 -1.7% 23 2 GB 34.1% 2 33.2% 1 4-3 26.0% 3 -7.4% 10 0.7% 17 3 NYG 31.6% 1 30.0% 3 5-2 26.4% 2 -2.3% 14 3.0% 11 4 CHI 31.2% 3 28.3% 5 5-1 -10.4% 24 -34.6% 1 7.0% 5 5 DEN 30.7% 5 25.9% 6 3-3 19.9% 4 -11.1% 6 -0.3% 19 6 NE 27.5% 6 28.7% 4 4-3 27.2% 1 3.0% 20 3.3% 10 7 HOU 23.9% 9 22.0% 7 6-1 9.6% 9 -23.9% 3 -9.6% 31 8 SEA 21.7% 7 18.5% 9 4-3 -5.8% 22 -25.1% 2 2.4% 12 9 ATL 18.4% 8 18.5% 8 6-0 7.6% 10 -6.6% 11 4.1% 9 10 MIA 12.1% 12 7.6% 11 3-3 -2.8% 18 -10.7% 7 4.2% 8 11 MIN 10.4% 11 8.1% 10 5-2 -2.6% 16 -4.5% 12 8.6% 2 12 BAL 4.6% 10 4.4% 12 5-2 3.0% 12 6.9% 23 8.4% 3 13 WAS 1.5% 14 0.7% 14 3-4 12.5% 7 2.7% 19 -8.3% 30 14 STL 0.6% 13 -3.3% 18 3-4 -5.3% 21 -7.7% 9 -1.7% 24 15 DET -1.7% 16 -2.3% 16 2-4 11.1% 8 2.5% 18 -10.3% 32 16 PIT -3.6% 21 1.3% 13 3-3 4.3% 11 6.6% 22 -1.3% 22 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 NYJ -4.2% 17 -3.6% 19 3-4 -14.2% 26 -1.4% 15 8.6% 1 18 DAL -4.2% 18 -2.9% 17 3-3 0.8% 13 0.1% 16 -4.9% 26 19 NO -5.9% 24 -1.8% 15 2-4 14.7% 6 22.7% 32 2.0% 14 20 TB -6.3% 15 -6.0% 20 2-4 -2.5% 15 -3.7% 13 -7.5% 29 21 ARI -6.6% 19 -8.0% 23 4-3 -21.8% 30 -14.9% 5 0.4% 18 22 PHI -10.1% 20 -7.3% 21 3-3 -14.4% 27 -10.4% 8 -6.1% 27 23 CAR -11.1% 22 -7.4% 22 1-5 -6.6% 23 1.3% 17 -3.2% 25 24 SD -14.5% 25 -12.4% 24 3-3 -12.7% 25 3.7% 21 1.9% 15 25 CIN -16.0% 23 -14.7% 25 3-4 -4.7% 20 16.1% 28 4.8% 6 26 BUF -17.3% 27 -15.9% 26 3-4 -2.7% 17 22.2% 31 7.6% 4 27 OAK -18.8% 26 -16.5% 27 2-4 -4.1% 19 7.2% 24 -7.5% 28 28 IND -22.1% 29 -20.7% 28 3-3 -1.9% 14 19.5% 29 -0.7% 20 29 CLE -23.8% 28 -23.5% 29 1-6 -18.0% 28 10.2% 25 4.4% 7 30 JAC -36.8% 31 -32.3% 30 1-5 -24.3% 31 14.7% 26 2.2% 13 31 TEN -37.9% 30 -34.9% 31 3-4 -19.7% 29 19.7% 30 1.5% 16 32 KC -44.7% 32 -35.4% 32 1-5 -28.1% 32 15.4% 27 -1.2% 21

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).