Ronald J. Hansen

The Republic | azcentral.com

Many more voters are casting their ballots early this year compared to 2012

Demographically, more younger voters and more Hispanic voters have cast their ballots early

Early balloting tells us who has voted, not necessarily how they voted

Election Day is fast approaching, but more than a million Arizona residents have already cast their ballots.

Here's a window into who has voted and where they live, as tabulated by Arizona's Democratic Party. State Republicans have not shared corresponding data, and county election officials have provided similar information only in sporadic fashion.

The early ballots correspond to voter information — age, location, party registration — and even suggest whether someone's last name is Hispanic. But the ballots are not yet publicly tabulated. That means the numbers don't reflect how many members of either major party have crossed over or whom third-party voters are choosing.

The totals reflect ballots counted through Nov. 1, which may not include every ballot received at that time.

Here are five key takeaways:

1. Increasingly, early voting is the rule

Plenty of ballots will be turned in on Election Day, but most voters want to be done with the process before the deadline. This year, early balloting is up 45 percent over four years ago.

This doesn't necessarily mean either Democrats or Republicans are more enthusiastic this year. Instead, it likely means more people are happy to avoid standing in line to vote.

2. Don't expect big changes in Congress

Early voting patterns by congressional district suggests most of the nine races around the state are going the way they usually do: More Republicans are voting in GOP-heavy districts and more Democrats are voting in seats they already hold.

The 1st and 2nd districts are the ones to watch this year. Democrats had the edge in both through Oct. 31, but that's no guarantee they will keep it.

In the 1st District, Democrat Tom O'Halleran would appear to have a lead at a point when Republicans have typically led. Democrats historically do well in Election Day voting on tribal lands in the district. The Republican in the race is Paul Babeu, the Pinal County sheriff.

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It's a different pattern in the 2nd District, where Democrat Matt Heinz would appear to have the early advantage. That is usually the case in the district. Republicans typically close ground on Election Day in the district, where polling has shown U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., with a lead.

3. Democrats are trimming the GOP's edge

Registered Republican ballots made up the biggest share of votes cast statewide, but Democrats cut that advantage through Nov. 1.

Four years ago, Republicans had a 10 percentage-point lead over Democrats in early balloting at the end of October. This year, that lead was 6 percentage points.

Are Republicans more torn about how to vote? Are Democrats voting more conveniently? These are unanswered questions that have both parties scrambling in the final days to reach their base.

4. More Hispanics are voting early

Every election cycle Democrats in Arizona say Hispanics are a bloc that could help turn the state from red to blue, and every cycle that group votes below its potential numbers.

This year Democrats see evidence that more Hispanic voters are casting ballots early. Through Nov. 1, voters who are believed to be Hispanic cast nearly 12 percent of the early ballots. That's still a small share, but well ahead of the 6 percent at the same point four years ago.

5. Early voters are getting younger

OK, voters aren't really getting younger. (That might really change turnout.) But the share of early voters is skewing younger this year than in 2012.

The changes are small, but they point to another demographic group taking advantage of early voting in greater numbers.

Voters who are 65 or older was unchanged at 41 percent of early ballots through Nov. 1. There was a nearly 2 percentage point drop in the share of early ballots from those who are 50 to 64 years old.

At the same time, those between 35 and 49 years old went up nearly a percentage point. That also happened for voters between 25 and 34. And there was also a tiny bump for voters between 18 and 24.

Reach the reporter at ronald.hansen@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on Twitter at @ronaldjhansen.

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