Has the federal NDP leaped forward, backward, or into a pit of confusion? At its Edmonton convention this weekend, the party dumped centre-left leader Tom Mulcair on an ignominious 48 per cent vote of support — a clear (and brutal) sign that it wants a change in direction.

Earlier in the day, delegates endorsed the principles of the hard-left Leap Manifesto, which calls for swift transition to a no-carbon economy, kiboshing the construction of infrastructure that would contribute to oil extraction. Yet at the same convention — held in Canada’s petroleum heartland — delegates cheered both Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, who spoke about the need for a pipeline, and former Ontario NDP leader Stephen Lewis, who believes Canada should leave its oil in the ground.

So at the end of this exercise, the party emerged leaderless, rudderless — and deeply divided. “I’m spitting angry,” said Alberta labour leader Gil McGowan. “These downtown Toronto political dilettantes come to Alberta and track their garbage across our front lawn … It makes them feel good to say that we have to deal with climate change and shut down the fossil fuel industry, but they ignore what they say has real implications for real people.”

This may not be the result the NDP leadership had in mind. Delivering free ammo to Alberta’ Wildrose and Conservative parties definitely wasn’t on their agenda. And that chuckling sound you’re hearing in the distance is coming from the federal Liberals, who now can expect to laugh all the way to the 2019 election.

The big problem with Leap isn’t just that it could torpedo the NDP in the West (although that is the likeliest outcome). It also could kneecap the party in the East, specifically in Quebec — something the NDP simply cannot afford to do. In his closing remarks, Mulcair stated that building the NDP’s Quebec base with the late Jack Layton was his proudest achievement. That base was the reason the party became the Official Opposition in the last Parliament in 2011; its erosion was the reason the NDP lost that status, and all hope of government, in 2015.

The hard-left positions encapsulated by Leap would not appeal to the mainstream federalist or soft nationalist Quebec voter — the people the NDP needs to win back if it hopes to get a shot at forming a government. The hard-left positions encapsulated by Leap would not appeal to the mainstream federalist or soft nationalist Quebec voter — the people the NDP needs to win back if it hopes to get a shot at forming a government.

Francophone voters deserted the party over the niqab question, parking their votes with the Liberals in the hope of unseating Stephen Harper. They got their wish — and now, the NDP needs to find a way to get back their votes.

Could the party do it with the Leap Manifesto? At first blush, there seem to be good reasons to think so. Quebecers are leery of oil pipelines in general. Poll after poll shows a majority of Quebecers oppose Energy East, and they’re more likely than other Canadians to consider pipelines unsafe. The Quebec government and various provincial environmental groups are seeking an injunction against TransCanada over Energy East, and the province’s environmental review agency will conduct a second set of hearings on the project starting April 25.

One political faction is most likely to gain support from opposing Energy East — and it’s not the NDP. Faced with a Quebec Liberal government reeling from an influence-peddling scandal, the separatist movement is seizing the moment and mobilizing on several fronts. A group called OUI Quebec — Organizations United for Independence — is touring the province, trying to drum up support for sovereignty. The provincial separatist party Québec solidaire has said it is open to creating an “alliance” with the Parti Québécois and Option Nationale, the third separatist party on offer. A Québec solidaire poll shows that a coalition of these forces could unseat the provincial Liberals in the next provincial election, two years from now.

While it’s true that the overtly socialist Québec solidaire also endorsed the Leap Manifesto, its ultimate interests are not aligned with those of the NDP. And they aren’t going to draw the mainstream voter; they took just 7.6 per cent support and three seats in the 2014 provincial election, and the latest polls give them 10 per cent. The Quebec Green Party, which also endorsed Leap, took only 0.55 per cent of the vote and no seats.

In a federal contest, the hard-left positions encapsulated by Leap would not appeal to the mainstream federalist or soft nationalist Quebec voter — the people the NDP needs to win back if it hopes to regain opposition and get a shot at forming a government. But renewed support for separation could boost the Bloc Quebecois, currently polling at 17 per cent compared to the NDP’s 19 per cent in the province.

A BQ surge likely would drive federalist Quebec voters in just one direction: toward the Liberals. The party already enjoys 47 per cent support in the province. A renewed separatist movement would revive the old nationalist-federalist axis which served previous Liberal governments — including those of the late Pierre Trudeau — extremely well. Liberals would try to put the squeeze on both the Conservatives and the NDP there and position themselves as the champions of Canada.

In other words, McGowan is right. Alienated in the West, crushed in the East, the NDP risks being reduced to … the party of downtown Toronto. Dilettantes, indeed.

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