Many in and around the video game industry have long been concerned with the way many social games seem designed to encourage compulsive spending on digital gewgaws rather than strategic gameplay decisions. Now the Japanese government looks poised to crack down on one of the more pernicious and addictive forms of virtual good sales, arguing that it runs afoul of the country's lottery laws.

Citing sources close to Japan's Consumer Affairs Agency, Japanese newspaper The Daily Yomiuri reports that the country will soon regulate social games that make use of a popular mechanic known as "compugacha" (short for "complete gacha"). Under this system, players pay a small fee to purchase a random, mystery in-game item (similar to real-world gashapon machines), in an effort to collect complete sets of similar items that unlock a rare "grand prize" item.

Regulators say the compugacha schemes run afoul of the country's law on unjustifiable premiums, which outlaws similar "card combination" lotteries in the real world. Consumers are taking note of the games' addictive nature as well; the Consumer Affairs Agency reportedly received 58 complaints about the practice in the last fiscal year, and some players have reportedly spent tens of thousands of dollars in a single month trying to complete their sets.

In response to growing public concerns, major Japanese social game makers GREE and DeNA voluntarily agreed last month to set maximum spending caps for how much children could spend on compugacha games, but it seems such efforts didn't go far enough for regulators.

Though the CAA hasn't yet formally issued a ruling, a broad-based decision against the practice could decimate the country's social gaming industry, which brings in anywhere from 18 to 50 percent of its income from compugacha sales, depending on who you talk to. GREE and DeNA both saw their stock plummet nearly 25 percent yesterday after the news broke, and traditional publishers like Konami, Namco Bandai, and Capcom also saw smaller stock dips thanks to their more limited social gaming efforts in Japan.

US tilting toward more wagering

While compugacha systems aren't nearly as prevalent in the kinds of social games popular outside of Japan, that doesn't mean Western social games don't have their own elements that resemble gambling. These include everything from slot machine spins for in-game currency in Popcap's Bejeweled Blitz to an outright casino simulation in Zynga's Texas Hold'em Poker. In fact, casino-themed games are now the most popular category of social games, even though none of them currently pay out real money (unless you want to sell your in-game currency through a shady third-party, that is).

But the legal environment in the United States seems to be tilting slowly towards more acceptance for real-money wagering in online games, rather than less. That's thanks in large part to a US Justice Department ruling issued late last year which said that the 1961 Wire Act doesn't bar states from allowing online games of chance within their own borders. California, Nevada, and New Jersey—eager to find a new source of taxable revenue to help close budget gaps—are already considering legislation to allow various types of online wagering.

Social game makers have noticed the shifting tide too. At a February conference, Zynga CEO Mark Pincus said overt wagering was "a natural fit" for his company's social games, and that the prospects for such gambling were "going to be mind-blowing." Attendees at San Francisco's recent Global Gaming Expo were reportedly "overwhelmingly positive" about the prospects for legalized real-money wagers in social games as well, though most think it will be 2014 before such betting will be legal across the country.