Canada could have a minority Liberal government with an NDP official Opposition a year from now if current trends continue, according to a new EKOS poll conducted jointly for iPolitics and Radio-Canada.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, who have ruled Canada since 2006, risk being relegated to the back corner of the House of Commons unless they can turn things around in the coming year, the poll conducted by EKOS Research indicates.

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are well out in front with 38.5 per cent of the vote. The Conservatives are at 26.4 per cent, with Thomas Mulcair’s NDP in a close third at 25 per cent. However, the NDP leader has the highest approval rating and the New Democrats have the most potential to grow, leading EKOS President Frank Graves to conclude the NDP could form the opposition, despite its current third place standing.

“The next Parliament, if it were to be created based on the poll that we have, would see a strong minority Liberal government with a sizeable NDP opposition with Mr. Harper reduced to a third party, rump status,” said Graves.

That assessment was backed up by veteran poll analyst Paul Barber, who blogs under the name TC Norris. He said if these numbers were to hold up through a campaign, and based on the regional breakdowns, the Conservatives would finish a distant third, 70 behind the Liberals and 27 behind the NDP.

The poll of 1,671 Canadians was conducted October 10-15. It is considered accurate to within 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

However, the numbers also indicate there could be some surprises in store between now and the next federal election, scheduled for October 19, 2015.

It is NDP Leader Tom Mulcair who has the highest approval ratings at 58 per cent, compared with 46 per cent for Trudeau and only 30 per cent for Harper.

Moreover, Graves says the NDP has the most potential to grow. While the poll found the New Democrats in third place, it also found they were the second choice of 30 per cent of respondents – especially Liberals.

“When you look at Thomas Mulcair and the NDP there is reason, I would think, for both the Liberals and the Conservatives to be concerned,” said Graves.

The Liberals were the second choice of 20 per cent of respondents — putting their potential ceiling slightly higher than the NDP’s. The Conservatives were the second choice of only 10 per cent of respondents.

“Things can change but I fail to see how a government, a year out from reckoning with the public in the polls with these many challenges and so few obvious cards to play, is going to have much success,” said Graves.

While Harper still has the solid support of his own Conservative supporters, the poll found he has been losing support among Canadians. Issues his government has trumpeted, like its law-and-order agenda, poll well with die-hard Conservative supporters but are at the bottom of the priority list for most other Canadians. While the Conservatives talk about the need to reduce taxes, the poll found Canadians were more likely to see next year’s expected surplus used to fund social programs like health and education.

The Conservatives have also seen a sharp drop in support among new Canadians, whose support in 2011 in regions like the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) helped hand Harper a majority government.

At the end of 2011, EKOS found the Conservatives and the Liberals were in a statistical tie for support among those born outside Canada, with the Conservatives at 31.8 per cent, the Liberals at 31.6 per cent and the New Democrats behind at 28.9 per cent.

In this poll, however, 47 per cent of respondents born outside Canada told EKOS they favoured the Liberal Party while Conservative support had dropped to 23 per cent and the NDP has dropped even lower to 15 per cent – narrowly ahead of Elizabeth May’s Green Party which is at 13 per cent.

Graves said there has been a dramatic shift since 2011 and the effect has been building over the last 10 surveys.

“In the last election, the Conservatives would have had the support of 44, 45 per cent of new Canadians. The Liberals would have had the support of maybe 18 per cent. So it’s a huge transformation.”

The Conservatives are still ahead of their rivals in provinces like Alberta where they have 43 per cent support versus 28 per cent for the Liberals and 14 per cent for the Green party, which polled better than the NDP’s 12 per cent. They’re also strong in Saskatchewan, where the party is at 48 per cent and the chief rival is the NDP at 36 per cent, well above the 17 per cent Liberals.

However, the Conservatives trail the Liberals badly in seat-rich Ontario, where 49 per cent of respondents favoured the Liberals versus 32 per cent for the Conservatives and 16 per cent for the NDP. Ontario will gain 15 seats in the next election, bringing it to 121 out of 338 seats in the next Parliament.

Part of that is Trudeau’s appeal, said Graves.

“He’s very strong in Ontario and that’s huge because Ontario will be the key to this next election. It’s got a lot more seats, it’s obviously by far the most seats and the Liberal lead is both commanding and stable.”

In British Columbia, Manitoba, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, the Conservatives are running in third place, behind the Liberals and the NDP.

In Manitoba, where the Conservatives currently hold 11 of 14 seats, the poll found the party had the support of only 12 per cent of respondents, compared with 43 per cent for the Liberals and 42 per cent for the NDP. In Quebec, where the NDP still has a commanding lead of 39 per cent and the Liberals have the support of 29 per cent of respondents, the Conservatives are at 14 per cent – only one point above the Bloc Québécois, which mustered the support of only 13 per cent of respondents.

In British Columbia, which picks up six new seats in the next election, the biggest battle appears to be between the Liberals, leading at 36 per cent support, and the NDP at 30 per cent. The Conservatives were at 20 per cent and the Green party at 12 per cent.

In Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives are currently tied with the Liberals at 13 seats each, the Liberals are in a commanding lead at 43 per cent compared with 25 per cent for the NDP, 23 per cent for the Conservatives and 9 per cent for the Greens.

Part of the explanation, says Graves, is that Canadians appear to be becoming more progressive. While voters appear to be moving away from the Conservative Party’s agenda and 52.1 per cent say the country is headed in the wrong direction, they are open to being wooed by either Justin Trudeau or Tom Mulcair.

“There are all kinds of Liberal voters who would consider moving to Mr. Mulcair if they thought he had a better chance to depose Stephen Harper,” Graves explained. “The promiscuous progressive vote doesn’t really care which party it picks as long as it gets rid of Mr. Harper.”

In May 2013, both Trudeau and Mulcair faced a similar challenge — the number of people who said they didn’t know whether or not they approved of their performance was almost as high or higher than those who had an opinion. It appears, however, that Canadians now have a better handle on what they think of the two opposition party leaders.

The poll found the percentage of respondents who don’t have an opinion on Trudeau’s performance is down to 17 per cent, however Canadians are split on what they think about how he has been doing his job. While 46 per cent approve of his performance, 37 per cent disapprove.

With Mulcair, however, as the number of people who don’t know him has dropped over a year marked by the Senate scandal, his approval rating has risen to 58 per cent while his disapproval rate has dropped to 22 per cent.

Graves said Mulcair has been spared the onslaught of attack ads that the Conservatives have directed towards Trudeau but that may soon change.

“These guys aren’t dumb and they see the same polling I do. They’re not going to continue to give Mulcair a free ride.”

Conservative fundraising pitches in the past week have included Mulcair along with Trudeau, urging supporters to donate to stop the two leaders from reversing what the Conservatives have accomplished.

More details from the EKOS poll for iPolitics and Radio Canada