Despite rapid growth in the world economy averaging US$5 trillion (Purchasing Power Parity) per year from 2010 to 2016[1], inequality is on the rise and over 600 million people around the world continue to live in extreme poverty[2]. Moreover, some analysts expect these trends to accelerate as automation reshapes labor markets and displaces workers from many conventional occupations. As a response, a number of developed and developing countries are considering a universal basic income (UBI): a recurring, unconditional cash transfer that covers basic needs and is paid to all members of a society.

Experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfers have consistently found that recipients of shorter-term transfers do not reduce their work effort[3] or spend the money they receive on alcohol or tobacco.[4] Instead, these evaluations have documented improvements in a wide range of outcomes including food security[5] and educational attainment[6], investment in small businesses[7] and long-term earnings.[8] Even short-term infusions of capital have significantly improved long-term living standards[9], psychological well-being[10], and life expectancy.[11]

However, a universal basic income is a very specific type of cash transfer – long term, sized to be sufficient for basic needs, and given to all members of a society. While governments around the world, from Namibia to New Jersey, have piloted UBI, little rigorous evidence exists on the impacts of a long-term commitment to providing a UBI.