It’s been a depressing season so far for Irish rugby fans. Poor pool stage performances by Munster, Leinster and Ulster mean that for the first time since the 1997/1998 season there will be no Irish involvement in the quarter-finals of Europe’s top rugby competition.

Leinster’s performances in Europe disappointed, excluding a convincing win against Bath in the RDS and a hopeful first 40 minutes against Toulon in the Aviva. Their wins against the other provinces, in particular a comprehensive victory in Thomond Park, has deflected much of the criticism away from them. Ulster were arguably incredibly unlucky not to progress after victories home and away to Tolouse and Oyonnax. Munster, however, seemingly have nowhere to hide.

Back-to-back defeats to Leicester were compounded by a dismal performance against a Stade Francais team that were down to 14 men for a majority of the game. Many would have hoped that a 26-13 victory against Stade a week later would have signified a red renaissance; however Munster’s latest outing against Zebre should largely dampened that expectation. In September it would have been unthinkable that Munster would not contest the final four of the Guinness Pro12, yet this is increasingly becoming a major possibility.

Munster miraculously find themselves sixth in the Pro12, just one point behind fourth-placed Edinburgh and only four points off the top. Seven teams from the Pro12 will qualify for next season’s Champions Cup; however, as each country (Ireland, Scotland, Wales and Italy) have to be represented this top seven shrinks to a top six to include either Treviso or Zebre. As it stands, Ospreys would be the team to lose out, however Munster’s form has been poor and the departure of key players to the Ireland Six Nations squad may see that trend continue.

Munster’s next outing on Valentine’s Day happens to be at home to the Ospreys. While they won the corresponding fixture all the way back in September, the loss of the players that have somewhat defied the slump in form such as Conor Murray, Keith Earls, Simon Zebo and most importantly captain CJ Stander, has weakened Anthony Foley’s side considerably, especially if the underwhelming showing in Parma is anything to go by.

If Munster were to fail to qualify for next year’s ERCC it would certainly damage their chances of retaining the services of Zebo, whose contract expires at the end of the season as well as prop BJ Botha whose decision to leave could be made easier by failure to qualify. The nightmare scenario of losing both Earls and Murray was avoided in midweek as they both signed new three-year deals, however Munster will need further boosts if they are to see any improvement in their form.

Should their woeful form continue and they slide further down the Pro12 table behind Ospreys, Munster’s last hope would be for either Connacht, Newport or Cardiff to win the Challenge Cup or face off against Harlequins in the final (should the West Londoners qualify from the Premiership).

A lot hinges upon the next two months. Should Munster emerge from the departure of their Ireland players with their league position intact, their proud history in Europe would most likely continue. However, were they to lose to both Cardiff and Ospreys in the coming weeks, Munster fans could well face the reality of Challenge Cup rugby in Thomond Park next season.

Dáire O’Driscoll, Pundit Arena

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