Party’s focus on environmental crisis has resonated with voters across the political spectrum ahead of federal election

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

﻿Out campaigning for Canada’s Green party ahead of next month’s federal election, Steve Dyck knows history is stacked against him.

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He’s a first-time candidate up against an incumbent MP in an electoral district of Guelph, Ontario, that has been held by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party for nearly 30 years.

But Dyck sees glimmers of hope.

Canvassing one recent summer evening, he spots a vehicle pulling out from a nearby driveway and dashes over. Before Dyck can recite his stump speech, the driver cuts him off.

“Hey man, you’ve got my vote,” says Matthew Bailey, rolling down the window of his minivan.

Until recently, such a scene – a Green party candidate making inroads in the country’s most populous province – would have been inconceivable.

For many years, the Greens were dismissed as a fringe outfit, with just one federal MP – the party’s leader Elizabeth May, who has sat in parliament since 2011.

But growing fears over the impact of the climate crisis and dissatisfaction with establishment parties have left many voters weary of politics-as-usual.

The Liberal government’s efforts to claim the environmental high ground has been undercut by its decision to buy a controversial oil pipeline to make sure construction is completed – despite opposition by Indigenous communities and scientists.

And Justin Trudeau’s own brand has been tarnished – first by a conflict-of-interests scandal and then by the emergence of three images of him in blackface.

In contrast, the Greens have experienced a pre-election surge in popularity: for the first time in Canadian history, they have become the official opposition in one province (Prince Edward Island). And in late spring, the Greens won a federal by-election, stealing the seat from the leftwing New Democratic party and doubling their seats in parliament.

That still leaves the party well short of the 12 seats required for official party status in parliament, and popular support for the Greens averages at around 9%. But against all odds, May has reason to feel buoyant.

She consistently polled as the most trusted federal party leader, Green membership has never been higher and the party is breaking fundraising records. And polls suggest that her party is set to gain more seats in this election.

“The public support feels very different. It’s palpable. It’s tangible,” May told the Guardian.

After years of effort, her party’s focus on a mounting environmental crisis has resonated with voters across the political spectrum.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Green party leader Elizabeth May: ‘The public support feels very different. It’s palpable. It’s tangible.’ Photograph: Carlos Osorio/Reuters

“Conservatives are not immune to concerns about their grandchildren,” she said.

Across the country, polling suggests the Greens have a legitimate shot of doubling or tripling their presence in parliament, running competitive races in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada and Ontario.

And in Guelph, a college town of nearly 150,000 hemmed in by farmland, May believes the Dyck is “very, very likely” to emerge victorious on election day.

But the Greens are also focused on using the election as a way of shedding their image of a single-issue issue party, instead recruiting candidates from a broad range of ideological perspectives: ardent environmentalists, libertarian-leaning thinkers and fiscal conservatives.

“We were the first party to call for equal marriage. We were the first party to call for legalization of cannabis. We were the first party to call for getting rid of ‘first-pass-the post’ voting. There’s a long list,” said May.

In some ways, Dyck represents the archetype of a “green” candidate running for public office: he drives an electric car, drinks a roasted barley beverage and wears a sturdy pair of hiking shoes while canvassing the city’s south end.

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But he also comes from a farming town in Alberta, where his family works in the oil and gas industry. And when speaking with potential voters, he lights up about capital gains tax and zero-interest loans – two policies in the recently released party platform.

The manifesto includes the standard fare of Green promises: reducing the country’s emissions, electrifying cars and bolstering environmental protections.

But it also calls for Canada to resettle climate refugees, rely more heavily on domestic Canadian oil production instead of imports, decriminalize all drugs and promise free post-secondary education.

On the doorsteps and sidewalks of Guelph, it’s clear that not everyone is a Green voter in waiting. Some locals tell Dyck they’re not interested in politics; others listen politely, but tell him they’re skeptical of the party’s chances across the country.

“It’s a hard to ask Canadians to vote for someone who’s probably not going win,” said Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Dalhousie University. “And that’s what the Greens are asking.”

But even a small number of seats would matter: recent polling show both the Liberals and the opposition Conservatives falling short of a majority.

The Greens have the potential to hold the balance of power in a minority government– and a chance to bring Green policy proposals to the negotiating table.

“I’m not interested in a balance of power in order to have power for the Green party,” said May. “What I’m interested in, is the balance of responsibility … We will not support any government that has not put together a persuasive – and convincing – plan for real climate action.”

With increased attention, however, comes increased scrutiny. The party recently ejected a candidate for an Islamophobic social media post and another candidate sowed confusion over whether or not he is a Quebec separatist.

Even May prompted a flurry of questions after she told reporters wouldn’t whip party votes to block a Green candidate from tabling anti-abortion legislation – although she insists that she is firmly in favour of a woman’s right to choose.

“I’ve never made any statements about the abortion issue at any time in my life –never retreating one inch – from a woman’s rights to legal abortion. Ever,” she said.

But the increased scrutiny the party reflects the belief – among voters and analysts –that the Greens may end up playing an outsized role in October, said Turnbull.

“There is a scenario in which May could be a kingmaker. And people really want to know – apart from the environment – what do the Greens want to do?” she said. “There are scenarios in which even though she’s probably going to have the fewest seats, she could still be at the table.”