It is becoming a familiar tale.

A government faces trouble over spending scandals. The first minister is furious. His top aide, formerly a well-respected financier, tries to minimize the political damage. Eventually, police enter the picture. They obtain a search warrant by telling a judge that they believe the aide committed a serious criminal offence.

The allegation is made public. The opposition parties pounce. The government is rocked.

If you think you have heard all of this before, you are right. It is the story of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, former top aide Nigel Wright and Sen. Mike Duffy — a story that came out last year after information behind an RCMP search warrant was released.

And now, the story has been rewritten for an Ontario audience. The remake includes Ontario Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne, her predecessor Dalton McGuinty and David Livingston, McGuinty’s former chief of staff.

This newer version surfaced Thursday after information behind an Ontario Provincial Police search warrant was made public.

Neither Wright nor Livingston has been charged with any offence.

There are differences. Wright is alleged to have committed bribery and breach of trust in his efforts to deal with the Duffy Senate spending scandal.

Livingston is accused of committing only breach of trust for allegedly arranging to have computer hard drives accessed by a non-government employee in the wake of Ontario’s gas-plant spending scandal.

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But there are also eerie similarities. Harper says he knew nothing of Wright’s alleged activities. He says that whatever happened was the former aide’s responsibility alone, a claim the opposition parties question.

Wynne says she knew nothing of Livingston’s alleged activities, pointing out that the former aide worked for McGuinty, not her.

Here too, the opposition is skeptical.

The biggest difference between the two scandals is political. Harper commands a majority of MPs. Wynne heads a fragile minority government susceptible to defeat at almost any time.

Still, as former Alberta premier Alison Redford discovered, even those who lead majority governments can be deposed if their party finds them to be political liabilities.

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In this context, it is interesting to note that Harper survived Wright-Duffy handily. Conservative caucus mini-revolts came to naught. The Senate scandal itself has slipped below the public radar.

Can Wynne survive McGuinty and Livingston?

The answer depends partly on timing. News that the RCMP had launched a criminal investigation into the office of then-Liberal finance minister Ralph Goodale helped Harper’s Tories win power in 2006. But that allegation (Goodale was later exonerated) surfaced in the midst of a bitterly fought election campaign.

An Ontario election campaign is at least six weeks off.

The answer also depends on how long Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats are willing to prop up Wynne’s government.

Before Thursday, it seemed as if the Liberals were preparing to end their unofficial dalliance with Horwath and force a spring election.

Experienced Liberal insiders warned then that the government’s prospects could only worsen if the premier delayed.

Today, one search warrant later, Wynne may be less anxious to go to the polls. But what’s not clear is where the NDP sits.

Horwath’s caucus was already split over election timing. Her problem now is that an election over government malfeasance promises to play best for Tim Hudak’s Tories, who have taken the lead in attacking the gas plant scandal.

Still, an election that decimated the Liberals and handed the Conservatives a victory could leave the NDP in second place as the official opposition.

The prospect of Hudak becoming premier might horrify NDP voters. But there are plenty in the party apparatus who would welcome any scenario that gives New Democrats more seats.

Thomas Walkom's column appears Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.

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