LANSING - Enrollment at Eastern Michigan University has dropped nearly 20 percent since 2013. The Ypsilanti school has cut four sports programs as well over 100 staff positions in the past three years.

Central Michigan University’s enrollment is down 20 percent compared to a decade ago. Two years ago, it cut some 50 positions to balance the budget. And more could be coming.

"We cannot escape the impact of our enrollment trajectory on our financial resources, and we will need to make difficult, thoughtful, strategic decisions," CMU President Robert Davies wrote in a letter to the campus community on Feb. 8.

Related:

See enrollment at Michigan's public universities after a decline in high school grads

Lake Superior State, Northern Michigan, Saginaw Valley State and Wayne State have each lost more than 10 percent of their enrollments in the last decade.

Fewer students enrolled at public universities means less tuition money. That could lead to job cuts and a diminished presence in communities.

And, as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer noted in her State of the State address on Tuesday, "a strong economy also requires a concentration of talent." She called for a goal that night of increasing the number of Michigan adults with a college degree or certificate to 60 percent.

But 10 of Michigan's 15 public universities enroll fewer students today than they did five years ago. Those schools enrolled 300,730 students in the fall of 2013, per federal data. This fall, it was 286,801.

Added to that, the number of Michigan public high school seniors who graduated in 2018 was down 11 percent from 2008. Graduating classes are expected to shrink further in the next 15 years, in Michigan and across the Midwest.

A select few public universities are defying the trend, led by the state's flagships, Michigan State University and the University of Michigan.

MSU welcomed its largest-ever freshman class this fall with 8,400 new students and has grown its total enrollment by 8 percent since 2008. U-M’s Ann Arbor campus has grown by more than 5,600 students in the last decade, an 14 percent gain.

Far less than the cost of tuition:Don't miss our introductory offer, which helps us continue to produce this kind of reporting

Despite the declines, "we've also seen some (schools), particularly in rural areas, do some very innovative things to turn around enrollment trends," said Dan Hurley, CEO of the Michigan Association of State Universities.

"Any talk in the big picture of whether Michigan has too many public universities simply because of demographic challenges conveys an attitude of retreat," he said. "There are so many things being done and so many things that can be done to address the challenges."

Why are universities shrinking?

Demographic changes and the rising cost of college are driving the decline in college enrollment, said Richard Vedder, a retired economics professor at Ohio University.

Those declines are pronounced in the Midwest and along the East Coast, and Vedder said it's only going to get worse in the next decade.

That's the prediction for Michigan. In 2018, 104,000 students graduated from public high schools here. By 2032, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education predicts just 84,000.

"Some (colleges) are going to go out of business, probably, and some are going to try to merge," Vedder said.

While closing a public university would be tough politically, Vedder said, state governments aren't likely to bail any out while dealing with rising Medicaid costs and an inability to raise taxes due to competition from other states.

Eastern Michigan isn't shuttering buildings, but it is letting private vendors take over services once provided by the university. It privatized food service in 2016, netting the university a $5 million signing bonus. The university more than doubled its reserves when it accepted a $55 million payment to privatize parking in late 2017. Privatizing student housing could be next.

At CMU, the push is on to grow enrollment away from Mt. Pleasant, said Steven Johnson, vice president for enrollment and student services.

"In response to the declining high school market, we've looked at opportunities for the adult student market, individuals that have some college, or are looking for other opportunities to advance their careers."

Approximately 4,730 students are enrolled in CMU's Global Campus program, which offers remote and online classes. In his Feb. 8 letter, President Davies said CMU has set a target of 6,500, an increase of 27 percent.

Declining birth rates mean it’s not going to get any easier for colleges in the decades to come, said Nathan Grawe, an economics professor who last year published the book "Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education."

He suggests universities focus on getting existing students through to graduation, noting that many could offset enrollment declines through increases in retention.

"If, through our work, we can show students how their studies are moving them toward the students' life goals and support them in that pursuit such that many more students persist to degree competition, we will shore up the financial stability of our institutions," he wrote in an email.

Why MSU and U-M are succeeding

Andrew Johnson and his dad, Maurice, drove up from Zion, Illinois, to snow-covered East Lansing to tour Michigan State along with a dozen other high school juniors and seniors.

Johnson, 17, is looking at the University of Michigan, University of Illinois, Northwestern and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His dad is pulling for Georgetown.

He was drawn to MSU by its diverse academic programs. Johnson said he’s thinking of law school and wants a college that offers a clear path forward.

“Price,” his dad said, “is always a concern.”

After a presentation on academic and extracurricular offerings, Johnson and the other prospective students donned their winter coats for a 90-minute campus tour.

Unlike other Michigan public universities, MSU and U-M can draw a significant number of out-of-state students with an array of highly ranked academic programs, scholarships and opportunities to study abroad.

Brand also plays a role, according to Jim Cotter, an enrollment management expert who served as MSU’s director of admissions for more than a decade.

“You have to look at the role alumni play in recruitment, the role of athletics, the role of brand strategy in recruitment,” Cotter said. “Being a Big Ten institution, you’re part of a prestigious group of institutions.”

MSU and U-M aren’t the only ones who’ve grown in recent years.

Grand Valley State University grew by nearly 800 students, or 3 percent, since 2008. It also more than doubled the amount of money it gives to students in scholarships from $21.9 million to $47.2 million. It's now the second most popular choice of Michigan public high school graduates behind MSU.

Michigan Technological University's enrollment is also stable thanks to a focus on science, technology, engineering and math degrees, said John Lehman, Michigan Tech's vice president for university relations and enrollment.

On its website, Tech boasts of the average graduate earning an early career salary of $66,400.

“As students and parents are becoming more interested in what do I get with this degree, we have responded with here’s what you get: the proof is in the pudding regarding salaries, student’s ability to pay back loans and to get a job when they get out of school."

How are shrinking universities responding?

At Northern Michigan University, where enrollment has fallen 19 percent in the past decade, President Fritz Erickson put out a call for new, innovative programs.

One result: a new medicinal plant chemistry undergraduate program, catapulting graduates into the blossoming marijuana economy.

“It’s incumbent on those of us at universities to make sure we’re offering the kinds of programs that fit future needs of the students we serve,” Erickson said.

A couple years ago, at the prompting of the provost, Northern also started a program to study the decomposition of human remains in the cold, because no one else was.

“We certainly have enough cold weather," he said.

Lake Superior State, down 22 percent since 2008, also will roll out cannabis chemistry degree programs this fall. In order to attract students from outside the area, it's opted to make tuition the same for all, whether they come from Michigan, Minnesota or Manitoba.

Several schools are targeting adults with some college but no degree. Eastern launched an online bachelor’s degree in nursing three years ago, growing from 160 students to about 800 currently enrolled, said Kevin Kucera, vice president of enrollment management.

Wayne State is taking a different approach. Last year, it began recruiting former students by offering to forgive up to $1,500 in unpaid debt to the university if they start taking classes again. Of the first 59 students admitted through the program, nine graduated in December.

And after years of being “in the bottom of the bottom in terms of their student outcomes,” Brandy Johnson, executive director of the Michigan College Access Network, said Wayne has dramatically improved graduation rates.

Of the students who enrolled in Wayne State in 2002, only 29 percent made it to graduation within six years, per federal data. Among freshmen who enrolled in 2011, 47 percent graduated within six years.

Johnson also proposed targeting students who aren't going to college directly out of high school, roughly 40 percent of last year's graduating class.

Statewide, just shy of 30 percent of adults have a bachelor’s or higher degree, she said, or about 1.49 million people.

Nationwide, 33.4 percent of adults age 25 or older reported having a bachelor’s or higher degree in 2017, according to the latest Census Bureau data.

What’s at stake?

Michigan needs another 171,000 people with bachelor's degrees if it's to remain competitive, said Hurley, of the Michigan Association of State Universities.

“We need more talent in this state, driven by more Michigan residents having higher levels of post-secondary attainment," he said.

It's also become an expectation, Hurley said. In a poll commissioned by the association, 83 percent of Michigan residents said they expected their children to earn at least a 4-year degree.

Tuition costs have risen. At Michigan public universities, they range from $9,514 per year at Saginaw Valley to around $15,000 at the University of Michigan before financial aid is factored in. But Hurley noted that the sticker price is far higher than what many students actually pay.

And higher levels of academic achievement mean better paying jobs, he said.

“The strongest case in point in the past year has been the remarkable state competition around Amazon HQ2,” Hurley said. Arlington, Virginia and New York City being picked exemplifies, “how talent among other factors is a huge driver in attracting and retaining economic activity,” he added.

Public universities are also vital to the communities where they are located, particularly those serving rural communities.

That's the case for Lake Superior State and the city of Sault Ste. Marie, said LSSU President Rodney Hanley.

"Of all the places I’ve lived, all the universities I’ve worked at, the university's relationship with the town is tighter than any place I've experienced," Hanley said, noting that LSSU is one of the largest employers in the city and Chippewa County.

That connectivity with communities makes preserving universities a must, Hurley said.

"Pick any university, especially those in more rural parts of the state, they are the economic engines of their areas," he said, noting that getting rid of them would have economic, educational, cultural and social impacts.

"We have challenges, but we need to be proactive in lifting up and leveraging these institutions, their resources, knowledge, and talent in these regions rather than having a retreatest mentality."

Contact RJ Wolcott at (517) 377-1026 or rwolcott@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @wolcottr.

Support local journalism: This subscription deal gives you 3 months of access for $1.