In April 2018, when it was announced that Arsene Wenger would step down as the manager of Arsenal at the end of 2017-18 season, very few people, if anyone shed a tear on his imminent departure. While Wenger had been the longest-serving and most successful manager in the club’s history, it was widely acknowledged that Wenger needed to go. Unlike Sir Alex Ferguson who retired after winning the EPL, Wenger left Arsenal after his worst season with the club and the rebuilding was not supposed to be that difficult. After all everyone apart from Wenger knew or least pretended to know what was wrong with Arsenal and what needed to be done. Sort out the defense, bring some tactical innovation to go with the Plan A perfected by Wenger and Arsenal would be purring again. At least, that was the assumption. Also, unlike Ferguson, Wenger also bestowed few gifts to his successor including 2 world class forwards – Aubameyang and Lacazette.

When Unai Emery was appointed in May 2018, everyone was happy. It was considered a shrewd appointment by the much maligned Arsenal board. Emery was a proven winner having won unprecedented three consecutive Europa League trophies with Sevilla and domestic quadruple with PSG (which admittedly is not the greatest of achievement). He was widely admired for his style of football and tactical innovations. However, in less than one and a half season, the relationship seems to have turned sour. Arsenal again seems to be in turmoil with fans dissatisfied with the performances / results and openly showing their displeasure with their booing of club captain Xhaka last Sunday.

The question everyone, including the fans, are asking is – How has Emery Improved Arsenal, if he has improved them at all. For the manager of a club like Arsenal it’s imperative that both performances and results are great. Let’s deep dive into data to check if Emery has indeed improved Arsenal, because quite frankly, from an eye test perspective, Arsenal seem to have regressed rather than improved and the mental fortitude which was repeatedly questioned under Wenger seems to have worsened.

Arsenal under Wenger vs under Emery

Arsenal, under Wenger, were great while attacking and brittle in defense. What we can see from the above set of data is that the headlines have not changed a bit from Wenger’s days. While there has been a marginal gain in points and number of matches lost, Arsenal have been worse under Emery in terms of goals scored, goals conceded, and number of clean sheets. This prompts the question – What exactly had changed under Emery? Maybe the underlying stats would prove that slowly but surely Arsenal are improving under Emery. We have compared underlying stats from Wenger’s last season with Emery’s stint so far to get some perspective on the same.

Attack! Attack! Attack!

Arsenal under Wenger were famous for beautiful possession football and for walking the ball in to the net. Even in 2017-18 when Arsenal had a woeful season by their standards, they ranked high on all the attacking underlying stats. At the end of season, they had scored the 3rd highest number of goals, had completed 2nd highest number of passes in the final 3rd and had the 3rd highest amount of possession in the league. With no churn in attacking players, Emery was expected to continue in the same vein. In fact he had an added advantage of having Aubameyang since the start of the season. So how exactly have Arsenal performed under Emery.

The attacking numbers show a grim picture. Under Emery, in 2018-19, while total goals scored remained almost the same, the underlying stats have suffered. From being a side having a vast majority of possession and creating loads of chances, Arsenal dropped down the charts. Under Wenger, they used to create a chance every 6.1 minutes (5th in the league) which plummeted to 7.7 mins (11th in the league). Consequently, their expected goals suffered (3rd to 5th). It was the proficiency of their strikers which meant that there was no impact on the number of goals as their shooting percentage improved vastly. This was mostly down to Auba. However, as expected, his has not proved to be sustainable and this season the expected goals and actual goals have remained at par. Creativity has vastly suffered under Emery: big chances created dropped last season and has further plummeted this season. From being 3rd in the league in terms of big chance creation they fell to 6th last season and are 11th this season.

From a genuine, top of the table attacking side under Wenger, Arsenal have fallen to the level of a mid-table side under Emery. To see how hard Arsenal have fallen under Emery in terms of attack, just check the following stats which were once impossible to imagine:

Arsenal were 11 th in the league in terms of Mins per chance created down from 5 th in 2017-18

Bournemouth created more big chances than Arsenal in 2018-19

From 3 rd in the league for number of shots on target in 2017-18 , Arsenal fell to 8 th for that stat in 2018-19

This season Arsenal have created less Big Chanc es than the likes of Bournemouth, Aston Villa, and West Ham

Aston Villa is better than Arsenal in terms of chance creation than Arsenal this season

Arsenal have only scored 8 goals from open play this season, lower than Burnley

The Case for Defense?

Arsenal, under Wenger, were always considered to be defensively brittle and there was a widely held presumption that any side willing to have a go at Arsenal could easily rattle them. If Emery has not improved the offense maybe Emery has improved the defensive unit and made them harder to beat? Also, Emery has lost fewer number of matches than Wenger: Arsenal had lost higher number of matches in 2017-18 season than Emery has lost till date. However, at the same time, goals conceded have remained the same and cleansheets have dried up. Let’s take a look at the defensive underlying stats.

Once again Arsenal seem to have regressed further under Emery. Though they conceded equal number of goals in last two seasons, expected goals conceded had shot up and Arsenal over performed last season. This season when they are conceding as many goals as expected and are on course to concede even more goals than Wenger’s Arsenal. Only metrics in which Arsenal improved last season were goals conceded from open play but at the same time they conceded more goals on set-plays. They conceded more shots on target, more chances, and more big chances. Only apparent improvement was down to personnel as Leno had a much higher save percentage than Cech which kept the total number of goals conceded at par with 2017-18. This season, they are even worse than the last season and only Leno seems to have carried on his form from the year gone by.

Once again, some of the stats lay bare the fact that Emery has not been able to improve Arsenal:

In 2018-19 Arsenal were 6 th in the league for number of shots allowed on target , in 2017-18 they were 15 th

In 2018-19, Arsenal conceded more shots on target than the likes of Brighton, Southampton, Bournemouth

Arsenal conceded more big chances in 2018-19 than Brighton, Southampton, & Crystal Palace

Arsenal have wor se xGC than Everton this season

What ails Arsenal?

It is clear from the above underlying stats that Arsenal are performing at a level worse than Wenger’s Arsenal but what exactly is the reason for this? Is it the manager or the personnel? While Arsenal were a good attacking unit under Wenger, the deficiencies in the squad were clear.

Emery needed to buy good defenders and defensive midfielders to sort out the defense. To this end Emery brought Sokratis, Torriera last season and Tierney & Luiz this season. Lichtstiener was brought as a stop gap arrangement last season and Guendouzi was brought for the future. While Emery has been unlucky that Bellerin and Holding have been unfit for better part of his regime, his refusal to play Torriera as defensive shield and insistence on playing Xhaka have also played a major part in the resulting defensive mess. Guendouzi has been thrust into action since the beginning and while he has performed admirably a better partner than Xhaka might have helped more in his development. David Luiz while being a better defender than perceived was not the right choice for this Arsenal side and that has been clear from his displays this season. Leno has proved to be a better keeper than Cech for Arsenal but at the same time Emery’s insistence on playing from the back despite not having the correct players for the same has also played a part in the defensive uncertainty. Leno is good with his feet but Sokratis, Luiz, Kolasinac, and Chambers are not good enough to allow Arsenal to play out from the back and break the press of opposition.

Emery inherited a good attacking side. While he did not add any attacking players to his team last season, Pepe and Ceballos have been added this season. At the same time he has lost Ramsey and Iwobi. Ozil, despite being in the squad has become person non-grata. Here I would like to question Emery’s man management too as none of the best attacking players from last season are involved with Arsenal anymore. The best chance creators for Arsenal last season were Ozil (39 mins/chance, not involved anymore), Iwobi (49 mins/chance, sold), Ramsey (53 mins/chance, sold on free), and Mkhitaryan (57 mins/chance, out on loan). To fill in this void, Emery brought Pepe who has not settled in yet and Ceballos (whom he refuses to start). Along with these, some of the young players like Saka, Willock and Reiss Nelson have been promoted to the first team squad but they don’t seem to be ready to carry the burden at this stage of their career.

Tactically, Emery seems to be a reactive coach rather than a pro-active one as all his plans and team selection seem to be centered on how to stop the opposition rather than playing their own game. The irony is they don’t even seem to work as is evident from the defensive stats. In away matches, Emery is even more conservative filling the playing XI with defensive players, inviting pressure and trying to score on counter attack. Famously, last season against the Premier League whipping boys Huddersfield he started with 8 defensive outfield players at home and was rescued by an 83rd minute Torriera goal. He does not seem to be sure of his best starting eleven and last season made most number of substitutions at half time. While this shows adaptability and willingness to accept mistakes, rectify them at the same time, it also shows a manager who does not has a clear plan and is reacting according to situations. While the players are not blameless for this whole sorry mess, most of the blame must lie with Emery.

What does this all mean for FPL?

None of the Arsenal defenders are worth the price tag. Cleansheets would be rare and though Tierney and Bellerin (once he is back) do have attacking potential, the lack of clarity in front would eventually bog them down. In attack, while Auba is awesome and is single handedly carrying Arsenal at the moment and Lacazette is a great forward, Emery does not seem to select any creative midfielders in the team which means onus is on them to create and finish the chances. Pepe does have good underlying stats but he has not proven himself yet. For the price points of Auba, Lacazette and Pepe there are better options available and I would recommend going with those players in your team rather than any of the Arsenal players.

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