ALEX WEISKOPF–Republicans have a demographics problem. This isn’t a left-wing talking point, it’s a reality unless the GOP makes changes. The minority population, which tends to vote mainly Democratic, is growing, while the white population, which votes mainly Republican, is shrinking.

At a time in which the Republican Party’s nominee and now President talks about building a wall and overseeing mass deportations, Latino Americans are the fastest growing demographic in the country. Although it should be noted that a slightly higher percentage of Latinos voted for Donald Trump than the GOP’s previous nominee Mitt Romney, it is obvious that Mr. Trump’s strategy is not a good long-term strategy for increasing the Hispanic Republican vote.

As the Hispanic population grows, many states, which used to be solid or leaning Republican, will trend more Democratic. When George W. Bush won his two terms for President, he won Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada both times, and lost New Mexico by only a fraction of a percent in the 2000 election, and won Texas by over 20% in both elections. In the 3 elections after Bush’s Presidency, the GOP has lost New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia all 3 times, Arizona has become competitive despite voting Democrat only once since the 1952 election, and President Trump won Texas by a much reduced 9%.

To this you might respond: but now the entire Rust Belt, which had mainly voted Democratic for the last 20 years, is in play. You also might add that the Rust Belt has more electoral votes up for grabs than the Sun Belt. This is true. But for one, as the Hispanic population grows, mainly in the West and Sunbelt, those Sunbelt states I mentioned (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada), will gain electoral votes as a result of their population increase.

At the same time, as the white working class continues to shrink as a percentage of the US population, the Rust Belt will lose some of its electoral power. But that’s not the only problem for the GOP. Remember, the Rust Belt voted Republican because the white working class in the region swung heavily to Trump, but only after years of supporting Democrats because of the Democratic party’s economic policy. While arguably a majority of the voters in the Rust Belt are culturally and socially conservative, many are in unions, most live modestly, and usually vote for a candidate who they think will protect them economically. Because their economic welfare matters more than social and cultural issues, these voters are not Republican Party locks.

If the Republican Party cannot find a candidate who can communicate how less government involvement in social programs is beneficial to working class people, the Rust Belt could easily swing back to the Democrats in the future. But even if the Republican Party adapted in a way that permanently appealed to working class voters in the Rust Belt, and the entire Rust Belt became Republican territory, the pick-up of that region would not be enough for Republicans if they ever lost Texas. Yes, Texas, a state that last voted for a Democratic nominee for President in 1976, for Jimmy Carter, who was a moderate southerner. No, it won’t happen next election in 2020, probably not even the next couple of elections. But eventually, if Republicans do not make at least modest gains with Hispanic voters, Texas will be in play.

Now, and maybe for the next couple of elections, losing in the West while winning in the Rust Belt is actually beneficial to Republicans, because the Rust Belt has more electoral votes at the moment, but in the long term it will doom the party. However, despite what some might say, it is eminently possible for Republicans to gain much more Hispanic support. While Donald Trump won 29% of the Latino vote in 2016, as recently as 2004, George Bush won 44% of the Latino vote. Love of country, religious values, hard work and saving money are values that Hispanics are not averse to. But Republicans can’t expect to gain much support from the Latino population when their President says things that send negative and hurtful messages to immigrants, both legal and illegal.

Republicans can still be for border enforcement but should be more understanding of the plight of immigrants coming to America. They should not only promote the action of legal immigration but educate people how to actually do it. The GOP would be best advised to become more moderate on their immigration policy to continue to stay competitive in the West, and on the role of government to stay competitive in the Rust Belt, preferably both.

Advocate border enforcement but be pro-immigrant and compassionate to their plight. Advocate self-reliance, lower taxes and regulations, and smaller government, but understand the plight of the working class, and don’t drastically cut certain benefits. Despite what the media might make it seem, America is a center-right nation, incredibly willing to vote for a candidate that values patriotism, free markets, less government, entrepreneurship, Judeo Christian roots, and freedom. If Republicans empathize with minority groups instead of advocating for ideological purity, they will have a much more success in the long term.

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