Be Patient: Our Prime Source of Stress

The doomsday scenarios played out over every media outlet – social and broadcast – have the global population suffering from more than the COVID-19 virus. The psychological toll on well over 7 billion individuals has become almost unbearable to some. The bombardment of numbers and charts which only paint the worst possible pictures has become our primary source of stress, rather than strength.

However, there is a positive view of the end of this pandemic each of us can hold onto as our source of strength. If we take a look at current percentages of our population who have contracted this virus, we can see the rest is up to us as individuals to put a fork in it. According to Worldometers.info, as of the morning of April 4th, the total number of active cases is currently at 0.01% of the global population; 0.08% of the U.S. population; and less than half of 1% of the epicenter (States of NY and NJ combined).

This translates to 1 out of every 10,000 people around the world who are currently infected; 8 of every 10,000 in the U.S.; and 42 of every 10,000 in the epicenter. In comparison, out of the entire U.S. population, the number of active cases would not even fill 4 college football stadiums.

Worst Case Scenario

However, the following collaborative effort predicts that 5.5% of the global population may become infected at its peak. According to Fairoza Amira Binti Hamzaha and et. al. of The Kyoto College of Graduate Studies for Informatics, in collaboration with the International Medical University & et. al., the projected maximum number of globally infected individuals may reach 425.066 million at the virus’s projected peak on May 23rd.

Thereafter, the number of globally infected individuals will drop to under 10 million by July 12th, under 1 million by August 3rd, and under 10 thousand by September 14th. In other words, the absolute worst-case scenario would see 5 or 6 out of every 100 people in the world that may test positive on May 23rd, with a hyper-rapid decline thereafter.

Binti Hamzah FA, Lau C, Nazri H, Ligot DV, Lee G, Tan CL, et al. CoronaTracker: Worldwide COVID-19 Outbreak Data Analysis and Prediction. [Submitted]. Bull World Health Organ. E-pub: 19 March 2020. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.255695. https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/20-255695.pdf

Keep in mind, this worst-case scenario does not take into consideration acts of mitigation currently in play. Between advancements with Chloroquine and other pharmaceuticals, oncoming warm season (the factors that cause flu to decline in spring might apply to COVID-19, too), this worst-case number will adjust lower.

Most importantly, our adherence to the experts’ guidance to wash our hands frequently and avoid contact with others should make experts’ predicted numbers as over-inflated as the egos of pundits that promote panic over solutions through a unified effort. It may be easier said than done but, in order to avoid becoming a patient, be patient. Do not panic. Follow protocol. It’s up to us now. This too shall pass.