Summary

Utah continues a general pattern of dry and warmer-than-average temperatures for the foreseeable future.

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Short Term Forecast

Today (Monday, Sept 28) we have some of our coolest temps of the season so far after a weak cold front brushed northern Utah this weekend. 20s and 30s are widespread in the Wasatch with even low 40s in the lower valleys of the Wasatch Front. This is only noteable because we've been so warm lately. Otherwise, cool temps like this in late September would be quite normal.

This week, we are going to see high pressure re-establish itself after our brief cooldown to start the week. Temps will be running 10+ degrees above normal for as far as we can see. Normally I wouldn't be too upset with temps in the low 80s in the valleys with 50s and 60s in the mountains this time of year, but we are in extraordinary circumstances this year. We've never been this dry.

How dry? Since July 1, the Alta co-op observer has recorded just 0.52" of precipitation. We have reliable records there going back about 50 years. The next driest year prior to this year was 1988 when we had 1.66" thru October 10. It doesn't look like we will see any additional precip between now and then. That means that the next driest such period was over 300% wetter than this year. Just to give you further idea how dry we've been, even if we had seen 4" of precip (which is 8x as much), we'd still be in the top 5 driest such periods on record. I'm not an arborologist, but I have to think that some of the trees in the Wasatch are undergoing severe strain due to lack of water and hotter than normal temps.

So when is relief arriving? Well, not in the next 5 days. Even the next 5 days after that are still bone dry. Here is the precip anomalies for October 2-7:

The entire state of Utah and most surrounding states are in the brightest pink color, which means that essentially zero precipitation is expected. If we look at the same map for the next 5 days after that (Oct 8-13), we see that some above-average precip anomalies start to nose their way into the western US, but Utah still remains relatively dry:

The next 15 days should be dry with very little chance of any precip in Utah.

Extended Forecast

Because the short-term forecast is so dry and monotonous, our extended portion of the forecast is looking WAY out to see if there is any chance of change. When we look at week 3 and week 4 in the CFSv2, we see that maybe we transition away from just dominate ridging:

This doesn't mean storms necessarily, but it's just something other than full blocking ridge as current forecasts give equal chances of above or below normal precip. If it feels like we are grasping at straws, it's because we are. Our only hope at this point for precip is likely the second half of October. Of course, things could change in a hurry. We've seen it happen before, especially this time of year when there is a seasonal transition.

I'll keep you updated...

Evan | OpenSnow