In a guest post exclusive to HonestReporting, Col. (Res.) Grisha Yakubovich, former Head of the Civilian Department in the IDF’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) unit, explains the Gaza electricity crisis and its implications for Israel.

The Gaza energy crisis has been in the making for many years and was predictable. In fact, the writing was on the wall ever since Hamas’ violent takeover of the Gaza Strip in June, 2007.

The simple fact is that while Gaza’s energy needs are 400 to 500 megawatts (MGW) at any given time, the Strip utilizes four different sources of energy to receive a mere 30 percent of its energy needs.

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Where the electricity comes from

Ten electricity lines from Israel supply Gaza with 120 to 140 MGW depending on the season, with the assisting lines working to their full capacity.

Within Gaza itself, there is a partially working power plant consisting of four power turbines which require diesel fuel to provide an additional 139 MGW. At present, the diesel entering Gaza from Israel is financed by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and only allows for the power plant to provide 20 to 40 MGW.

Two electricity lines provided by Egypt supply an additional 28 to 32 MGW, depending on their capabilities.

The fourth and final source of electricity are individual home solar panels. Though not significant to the total amount of energy, they play an important role to the households of Gaza.

Who pays?

The financing of the electricity supplied by Israel is paid by the PA after Israel deducts the full costs from the PA’s revenues on a monthly basis. This averages around NIS 35 million per month.

Hamas collects the payment from the residents of Gaza, and is obligated to deliver the amount collected to the PA treasury. Not surprisingly, over the past 10 years, that money has not been delivered.

No one really knows exactly how the undelivered money is being used, but what is certain is that Hamas has used some of this money in the past to buy diesel from Egypt, which was then smuggled into the Gaza Strip through one of the tunnel systems. It is also a known fact that some of the money was used to buy diesel from Israel, which is much more expensive.

Reliability

Additionally, all non-Israeli power supplies contain flaws which further complicate the situation. Thanks in part to a draconian operations contract signed between the PA and the power plant managers, the watt/hour cost of energy production in Gaza’s own power plant is actually more expensive than the cost of electricity from the Israeli lines and related expenses.

While it is unclear if the Egyptian electricity is being paid for, what is certain is that its supply is not at all reliable.

Finally, solar panels only serve as an economic source of energy for those who can afford to purchase such a system.

Solutions

Gaza’s daily existence is dependent on energy — for health services, water supply, sewage, and the Strip’s continued reconstruction after Operation Protective Edge. As things stand presently, without a change, Gaza is heading towards a humanitarian disaster. In addition to the current needs, the Strip faces the collapse of its aquifer – its main water supply – which is predicted to reach a climax in the year 2020.

This inevitable crisis must be addressed urgently and solutions must be provided for the 2.1 million people who will be left without a drop of water in three years’ time. International support is essential to help the people of Gaza build desalination and sewage treatment plants to provide a new water supply and stop the existing aquifer pollution. Millions of dollars are needed to implement the necessary projects, but donors will not agree to donate the funds without a long-term energy plan in place.

There are a variety of solutions to the energy problem, but if there is not a change to the existing reality, all of these solutions will result in a catch-22.

Hamas has the power to improve the situation by delivering the collected money to the PA, which will allow the PA to continue to pay for the required energy sources. Through this mechanism, the PA can pay for the diesel, thereby allowing Gaza’s energy to increase as the power plant operates at full capacity. The PA could then build another power plant to complete the gap or request that Israel to build more energy lines to be funded and paid by Ramallah and the international community.

While this seems like a feasible solution on paper, no one can provide guarantees that Hamas — a terrorist organization — will not use the Israeli electricity or PA funds for continued terror efforts, such as digging attack tunnels and producing massive rockets that will be fired at Israeli cities (and ironically, at times the Israeli power plant that provides the very energy Gaza requires).

Israel for its part, will demand that the international community find solutions to prevent the predicted crisis in Gaza – even through direct work with Hamas or its Gazan representative, while bypassing the PA. This might be a creative solution and will probably solve the problems of the predictable crisis.

But in addition to the looming security threat that Israel must deal with, one must ask if this will serve a future two state solution or create a new reality requiring a three state solution.

Meanwhile, with the PA demanding a reduction in the amount of electricity supplied by Israel to the Strip, an important question must be asked regarding Ramallah’s relationship to Gaza. Is the PA taking responsibility for the situation, or are Ramallah officials really washing their hands of Gaza? Regardless, Israel finds itself bearing the weight of Hamas’s accusations – despite the energy reduction being a PA demand, Egypt has an unmentioned role in supplying energy, and many facets of a feasible solution lie in the hands of Hamas itself.

Unfortunately, the only ones that have paid, are paying, and will continue paying the price in this paradox are the residents of Gaza. In all probability, Hamas will not relinquish its power over the Strip, and as a result the PA will not be able to return to governing Gaza. That reality will prevent Egypt from changing its present policy toward the Gaza Strip, and will also deny Israel the security guarantees it requires. In short, any energy solutions for the Strip will continue to support Gaza terror.

Any solution must provide an answer to the financial issues, Israel’s need for security guarantees, and the expected humanitarian price while also taking into consideration that any solution enforced while Hamas is in power will be viewed by Hamas as a win for their policy of terror.

What happens next? Will Hamas take the risk (as happened in Protective Edge) and turn to another round of violence to try and, ironically, improve the situation in Gaza? Or is the present situation restraining Hamas from another round with Israel?

Only the future will tell.

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