The old saw has it that one can lose a stage race on any day but one can win it only on certain selected stages. The time trial on Tuesday at Logroño in northern Spain is one of the latter as far as Chris Froome is concerned in this year’s Vuelta a España, especially given his recent record in the discipline compared with those of his remaining rivals for the red leader’s jersey.

Having won a time trial in last year’s Tour de France and come a close second in one this year, over the 40 relatively flat kilometres at Logroño, Froome can hope to carve out a decisive advantage to serve as a buffer through the four mountain stages that will take the race to its decisive point at the summit of the Alto de l’Angliru on Saturday afternoon. It could prove a vital staging post in his quest to become the first Briton to win the Tour of Spain and the first man to win the Tour de France and Vuelta in the same year since Bernard Hinault in 1978.

Froome’s closest rival, Vincenzo Nibali, who lies 1min 1sec behind, can produce a more than respectable time trial on occasion – as he most notably did en route to victory in the 2013 Giro d’Italia – although he has rarely managed to do so in the three years since he won the 2014 Tour de France. Froome, on the other hand, has time trialled consistently at the highest level since making his breakthrough during the 2011 Vuelta, where he defied the odds to overcome his nominal leader of the time, Bradley Wiggins, against the watch.

Of the danger men in the overall standings below Froome, the Italian is the only one who has managed to come through the many early mountain stages within reach of the Team Sky No1. His persistent attempts to dislodge the race leader have come to nought in the face of Sky’s collective strength and, if Froome gains as little as a minute on him on Tuesday, that will finally give him and his Sky team-mates room to breathe.

Four more riders are grouped within three minutes: Russia’s Ilnur Zakarin, Wilco Kelderman, Esteban Chaves and Miguel Ángel López. But while López and Zakarin have looked the freshest in the weekend’s mountain stages – and Froome admitted on Monday that he would now have to take the Colombian Lopez into account – only the Russian has a time-trial pedigree as his country’s current national champion. “We start on a race track. Once we get out on to the road it’s just a straight long road,” Froome said of Tuesday’s test. “[It’s] 20km going up in steps and then pretty much 20km going down in steps. It’s fast. It’s very much a power time trial course. It’s not super technical. There’s quite a few time triallists here to contend with. Zakarin looks in very good shape [and] Kelderman [and] Alberto Contador have done some very decent time trials this year.”

Froome acknowledged that in a tough final week, and with yet another summit finish on Wednesday at Los Machucos, there will be an element of calculation involved in Tuesday’s stage, and indeed with all the others up to Saturday. “Whoever leaves absolutely everything out there in the time trial will pay for it the day after on Los Machucos,” he said. “That’s not as long as [the] Angliru but the gradients are up there. There are pitches of over 20%. Every day has to be ridden thinking about what is coming up.”