Pairwise Probability Matrix

These are the results of 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining games prior to Selection Day. The winner of each game in the simulation was determined randomly, weighted by KRACH. When that simulation was completed -- playing out the six conference tournaments -- a Pairwise was calculated based upon those results.

The numbers in the chart represent the percentage of times (among the total simulations run) each team placed in that spot in the Pairwise. Note that just placing in the top 16 does not indicate the team made it, due to automatic bids (AQ).

Please see below the chart for more information.

Last updated: March 8, 10:08 pm

RK TEAM In AL AQ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 1 North Dakota 100% 48% 52% 88% 9% 3% 2 Minnesota State 100% 28% 72% 10% 61% 28% 1% 0.1% 3 Cornell 100% 36% 64% 3% 30% 61% 5% 1% 0.2% 4 Minnesota-Duluth 100% 77% 23% 0.1% 4% 49% 33% 13% 0.8% 0.1% 5 Boston College 100% 60% 40% 0.1% 3% 40% 13% 43% 0.9% 6 Denver 100% 84% 16% 0.1% 5% 52% 31% 11% 2% 0.1% 7 Penn State 100% 71% 29% 0.0% 0.7% 6% 31% 35% 21% 5% 0.2% 8 Clarkson 99.4% 80% 20% 0.0% 0.4% 4% 17% 24% 24% 14% 7% 4% 3% 2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9 Massachusetts 100.0% 83% 17% 0.1% 0.7% 22% 18% 20% 19% 13% 5% 2% 0.4% 0.0% 10 Ohio State 100% 71% 29% 0.1% 3% 15% 11% 13% 24% 21% 9% 3% 0.3% 0.0% 11 Arizona State 96% 96% 0.5% 8% 24% 32% 23% 10% 2% 0.3% 0.0% 12 Mass.-Lowell 71% 56% 15% 0.1% 2% 5% 7% 9% 12% 11% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 5% 2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 13 Michigan 58% 37% 21% 0.2% 3% 9% 6% 4% 7% 13% 19% 19% 13% 5% 1% 0.1% 14 Bemidji State 59% 42% 18% 0.1% 2% 4% 6% 9% 12% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 7% 6% 5% 2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 15 Quinnipiac 45% 36% 9% 0.4% 2% 3% 4% 6% 9% 11% 13% 12% 9% 7% 6% 7% 6% 4% 2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16 Minnesota 32% 11% 21% 0.1% 0.9% 6% 8% 6% 5% 8% 13% 16% 17% 13% 6% 2% 0.3% 0.0% 17 Western Michigan 40% 34% 6% 0.1% 0.7% 2% 3% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 9% 11% 11% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 18 Maine 41% 30% 11% 0.1% 0.1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 9% 10% 9% 7% 5% 6% 9% 9% 6% 3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 19 Northeastern 23% 17% 6% 0.0% 0.6% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 7% 9% 13% 12% 6% 2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 20 Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 4% 13% 26% 28% 18% 8% 2% 0.3% 0.0% 21 Bowling Green 9% 1% 8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 8% 13% 15% 14% 12% 8% 4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 22 Providence 5% 2% 3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 1% 1.0% 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 10% 14% 18% 18% 11% 4% 0.7% 0.1% 23 Sacred Heart 33% 33% 0.0% 0.3% 1% 3% 6% 6% 5% 7% 12% 15% 13% 10% 7% 4% 4% 3% 2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 24 St. Cloud State 3% 0.1% 3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 7% 10% 14% 12% 10% 10% 8% 4% 2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 25 Michigan Tech 3% 3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 2% 4% 8% 11% 17% 24% 21% 9% 2% 0.1% 26 American Int'l 25% 25% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 2% 4% 5% 6% 9% 13% 13% 10% 6% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 4% 2% 0.6% 0.0% 27 Harvard 4% 4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 2% 4% 8% 12% 14% 12% 9% 8% 6% 3% 5% 7% 4% 2% 0.2% 0.0% 28 Michigan State 0.2% 2% 9% 24% 33% 22% 8% 1% 0.2% 0.0% 29 Boston University 4% 4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 1% 2% 3% 4% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 6% 6% 17% 13% 5% 1% 0.0% 30 Nebraska-Omaha 1% 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 2% 3% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 7% 4% 4% 5% 13% 21% 11% 2% 0.1% 0.0% 31 New Hampshire 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 4% 15% 30% 27% 14% 6% 3% 0.2% 32 Wisconsin 0.0% 0.6% 5% 16% 23% 27% 20% 7% 1% 0.0% 33 Connecticut 4% 4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1% 2% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 21% 22% 7% 0.5% 0.0% 34 Northern Michigan 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 3% 12% 31% 33% 17% 3% 0.2% 0.0% 35 RIT 18% 18% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 11% 18% 16% 18% 12% 2% 0.0% 36 Alaska 1.0% 22% 47% 27% 4% 0.1% 37 Rensselaer 2% 2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1% 6% 13% 18% 34% 21% 3% 0.1% 38 Army 13% 13% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1% 3% 4% 7% 14% 39% 26% 5% 0.6% 0.0% 39 Yale 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 2% 7% 21% 56% 11% 1% 0.1% 0.0% 40 Colorado College 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 3% 9% 26% 29% 22% 9% 2% 0.1% 41 Dartmouth 36% 34% 23% 6% 0.7% 0.0% 42 Colgate 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 7% 18% 32% 25% 14% 3% 0.3% 0.0% 43 Miami 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 19% 27% 22% 7% 2% 0.1% 0.0% 44 Bentley 3% 3% 0.4% 1% 8% 7% 6% 9% 15% 30% 18% 5% 0.7% 0.1% 45 Lake Superior 1% 24% 33% 33% 9% 0.3% 46 Niagara 3% 3% 0.6% 1.0% 3% 3% 5% 7% 6% 6% 21% 4% 36% 8% 47 Merrimack 0.3% 2% 36% 50% 10% 1% 48 Air Force 3% 3% 0.0% 0.2% 1% 1.0% 2% 3% 6% 34% 48% 5% 0.0% 49 Robert Morris 1% 1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 1% 3% 4% 5% 85% 0.0% 50 Canisius 99.5% 0.5% 0.0% 51 Holy Cross 0.2% 99.5% 0.3% 52 Vermont 0.0% 98% 2% 0.1% 53 Brown 1% 98% 0.5% 54 Union 98% 2% 55 Princeton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1% 98% 0.0% 56 Ferris State 0.0% 100.0% 57 Alaska-Anchorage 100% 58 Alabama-Huntsville 100% 59 St. Lawrence 100% 60 Mercyhurst 100%

NOTE: This does not represent all scenarios that exist, just the ones that occurred in the simulation. It is technically possible, albeit very small, that a scenario exists where a team gets in the NCAAs that is not reflected on this chart.

Key

IN - % of simulations in which a team qualified for the NCAA tournament

AL - % qualified as an At Large

AQ - % qualified as an Automatic Qualifier (won the conference tournament in the simulation)

% in red, if any, indicates amount of times team qualified for NCAAs on criteria, but was ineligible by virtue of having a <.500 record.

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