We're about to reach a critical point in the 2018-19 season. Toward the end of Wednesday's 10-game slate, we will reach the season's quarter point (308 of 1,230 games played), when we should start to take a team's record pretty seriously.

On average, about 14 of the 16 teams that eventually make the playoffs are in the top eight at the quarter mark of the season. At the quarter mark last season, seven of the eight eventual Eastern Conference playoff teams were no worse than tied for eighth place in the conference, with the 10-11 Miami Heat (one game out of eighth) being the lone exception. The same thing was true in the West, where the 8-12 Oklahoma City Thunder were the only eventual playoff team that wasn't in the top eight through Nov. 29.

A team's first 20 games are only a quarter of its season, but they can be pretty indicative of things to come. Over the last 15 (full) seasons, 92 percent of teams that had at least 12 wins through their first 20 games went on to make the playoffs, while only five percent of teams with six or fewer wins through their first 20 games turned things around and made the postseason.

Recovering from a slow start has obviously been tougher in the Western Conference, where things are especially jumbled right now. Through Sunday's games there are seven teams that are three games over .500, but another seven that are within a game of eighth place at no worse than 9-11. Come Thursday morning, the West standings may not mean quite as much as they usually do.

But in the East, the Orlando Magic should feel pretty good about being 10-10 through their first 20 games, while the Miami Heat and Washington Wizards should be worried about their chances of returning to the postseason.