New research finds that broadband users are increasingly turning to the web for their video content fix, but almost everyone still prefers the comforting blue glow of a television screen.

Nielsen conducted the study on behalf of the Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing (CTAM), which obviously worries that the rise of online TV shows and movies could eat into cable and satellite market share. The survey found, though, that 94 percent of cable and satellite subscribers prefer to watch content on regular TV sets. Whew!

It's not all good news for pay-TV, though, as the survey seems likely to undercount those who are most comfortable watching online video, as those folks are not likely to sign up for pay-TV service in the first place (our household survives on a diet of over-the-air HD local channels, TV shows on DVD, and online sites like Hulu).

The survey also found that over a third of all US broadband users have watched at least one TV show on the Internet, generally at the television networks' sites, so the shift to the web is well underway. But most of those (82 percent) who watched online shows did so because they searched for a specific program they had missed on TV, so the report points out the "critical importance of strong marketing for the initial TV showing."

But the world is moving to the web, and cable and satellite operators desperately want to avoid becoming a dumb IP bit-hauler. (Imagine Comcast only being able to charge $40 a month for a 15Mbps line, rather than more than $100 a month for TV programming, phone service, and Internet access, and you can see why this is a scary prospect.)

Web video is being held back not just by novelty or lack of content, but also by technical limitations. It's still difficult to get web video onto TVs for most people; even if your laptop has a DVI or HDMI jack, the majority of US televisions remain mired in the analog age. And quality can still be spotty, although ABC is now streaming episodes of Lost in HD and Hulu offers 480p streaming for FOX and NBC TV shows.

As TV sets go digital, something that the upcoming February 2009 digital transition may help, innovative set-top boxes and easier laptop connections will help blur the distinctions between "online" and "broadcast" video. So it's still a good time to be in pay TV, but the lean years could be a-coming.