WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump has touted North Korea’s potential to become an “economic powerhouse” – even plugging the country’s “great beaches” as prime real estate for luxury condos and glitzy hotels.

But some experts are skeptical of the Trump administration’s emphasis on offering Kim Jong Un a “brighter” economic future for his insular country in exchange for relinquishing North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.

There’s no question Kim wants to rev up North Korea’s calcified economy, but experts say he is not interested in a broad economic liberalization that would lift up the North Korean people and increase their exposure to outside influences – a potential threat to his own grip on power.

Even if Kim wanted to open his country’s economy to Western-style development, a new analysis concludes that North Korea would be a terrible place to do business – “a responsible investor’s worst nightmare,” according to a report released Monday by Verisk Maplecroft, a London-based global risk analysis company.

That raises serious questions about the possibility for any tangible progress as Trump and Kim prepare for a second summit this week in Vietnam.

Trump-Kim summit:Trump hints at economic rewards for North Korea

“Even leaving sanctions and geopolitical risks aside, the barriers to investment are so wide-ranging as to be insurmountable for any responsible multinational organization,” said Miha Hribernik, head of Verisk Maplecroft’s Asia division.

His firm’s research – based on an analysis of the regulatory climate, property rights and human rights in nearly 200 countries – found that North Korea ranks as the most unappealing place for investment, with “an array of risks without parallel anywhere in the world.” It’s less economically desirable than countries riven by war, famine and failing governments, including Syria, Yemen or Venezuela, the report concludes.

“Whatever potential Trump sees in Kim’s regime, the vast majority of investors are unlikely to act on his claims,” Hribernik said. “The stakes are just too high.”

The report stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s own assessment.

"We think that North Korea and Chairman Kim have a tremendous potential as an economic force, economic power," Trump said Feb. 15 during remarks in the Rose Garden. "Their location between South Korea and then Russia and China – right smack in the middle – is phenomenal. And we think that they have a great chance for tremendous economic prosperity in the future."

(story continues below chart)

As he prepared to leave for Vietnam on Monday, Trump again emphasized North Korea's economic potential.

"With complete Denuclearization, North Korea will rapidly become an Economic Powerhouse," the president tweeted. "Without it, just more of the same. Chairman Kim will make a wise decision!"

Trump's top diplomat, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, has said the U.S. will not agree to easing multilateral sanctions – which severely restrict economic dealings with North Korea – before the Kim regime takes concrete steps toward denuclearization.

"We have to reduce the threat from a nuclear-armed North Korea, and then in turn we can work on peace and security on the peninsula and a brighter future for the North Korean people," Pompeo said Thursday in an interview with NBC News.

What that "brighter future" means is not clear. But North Korea's economy faces severe problems: The central government is unable to provide enough food and other goods for a mostly impoverished population.

According to CIA data, North Korea's gross domestic product was an estimated $28 billion in 2013. In neighboring South Korea, where years of foreign investment have fueled a booming technology and consumer products industry, the gross domestic product hit $1.54 trillion in 2017.

Facing internal pressure, the North Korean regime has allowed hundreds of small private markets to open around the country. The government now permits more than 400 such markets to operate as long as the vendors pay "taxes" and "rents" to state coffers, according to a 2018 study by the Center for International and Strategic Relations (CSIS).

But it’s not clear how much further Kim is willing to go – or if he’s willing to give up his nuclear weapons to get fresh economic investment.

“Kim Jong Un has said explicitly that having completed his nuclear weapons program ... he wanted to move into the stage of focusing on economic development,” said Michael Fuchs, who was a deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs during the Obama administration. “The question, of course, is on what terms.”

Michael Green, a CSIS expert on Asia who worked on North Korean issues during the George W. Bush administration, said that Kim wants “very hermetically sealed projects – kept away from the average North Korean" – that are used to generate cash for the regime.

Green pointed to two economic operations that were once the source of millions of dollars for North Korea’s government. One is a resort at Mount Kumgang that drew an estimated 1 million tourists from South Korea before 2008.

“The North Koreans opened it up to tourism, but you had to pay huge amounts of cash and you were strictly limited in where you could go,” he said. “It was basically an ATM machine for them.”

The second was an industrial park called Kaesong, operated until 2016 with the South Korean government just north of the demilitarized zone between the two countries, with several factories that produced spoons, bowls and other items. Workers at the factories were hand-picked by the North Korean government, and their wages went into an account run by the regime, Green said.

“Between the two, the North Koreans were getting hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and not exposing their people to the outside world – except for a few carefully chosen and vetted tour guides and workers,” Green said.

But South Korea banned visits to the mountain resort in 2008 after a North Korean soldier shot and killed a South Korean tourist who, according to Pyongyang, went off the trail into a restricted military area. And South Korea shuttered the Kaesong operation in 2016 amid an increase in rocket testing and other provocations by the North Koreans.

What we know about North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un

When Kim talks about economic revival, Green said, he’s envisioning the revival of those facilities, and perhaps starting additional ones.

“He wants cash. He wants the U.S. to agree to lift U.N. Security Council sanctions that block South Korea … from reopening (those) two cash cows,” Green said. “He does not want the kind of opening that China or Vietnam did, where foreigners wander around the countryside talking about democracy.”

It’s also not clear that Kim would be willing to give up his nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief.

First and foremost, “Kim Jong Un wants to survive in power,” said Fuchs, the former Obama administration official.

Kim may believe that some economic growth is necessary for his own survival, Fuchs said, but he’s probably also grappling with the risks of any engagement with the outside world. Giving up his nuclear arsenal and creating an economic opening could make him vulnerable inside and outside North Korea.

“He wants to develop his economy while maintaining his nuclear weapons,” Fuchs said.

Green agreed and said the Trump administration’s strategy already has been tried – by the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations.

“We’ve said this over and over: ‘If you choose to give up nuclear weapons, you can have a better life,’” Green said. “It’s such a cliche … It also suggests they don’t have concrete plan.”

Related stories:

Trump-Kim summit: North Korea must do something 'meaningful' to denuclearize before sanctions relief

President Trump 'in no rush' to have North Korea denuclearize – as long as it doesn't test weapons

Spy agencies doubt North Korea will give up weapons