Emissions from Australia’s electricity sector have risen significantly since the repeal of the carbon price, with a record rise in emissions predicted this financial year.

An analysis of the National Electricity Market (NEM) by Mike Sandiford, a University of Melbourne energy academic, has shown their emissions will rise about 9% in 2014-15 compared with 2013-14 – the equivalent of 14m extra tonnes of carbon dioxide. The figure could be as high as 10%, according Sandiford.

The NEM covers about 80% of Australia’s electricity consumption.

“To put it in historical context, this recent increase in emissions is currently tracking at about 250% higher than the previous largest recorded increase,” Sandiford wrote in the the Conversation. “That was back in 2003-04 when emissions increased by a touch over 5m tonnes for the year.”

Sandiford said the increase was clearly linked to the Coalition’s repeal of the carbon pricing mechanism, which was scrapped in July.

“The reason is straightforward,” he said. “During the years of carbon pricing, hydro was being dispatched at unsustainable levels. Since repeal the reduction in hydro output has been substantially picked up by brown coal generators in Victoria.”

Separate figures released by consultancy firm Pitt&Sherry show that annual NEM emissions were 1.3% higher in the month to September 2014 compared with the year to June 2014, the month before carbon pricing was removed.

In a briefing note, Pitt&Sherry said black coal generation has increased 0.5% in this period, with brown coal, the most carbon-intensive type of coal, rising 2.2%.

The increase in emissions wasn’t entirely down to the removal of the carbon price, the note stated, with falling gas generation and “considerably less” wind generation causing coal to take up the slack.

But it suggested that consumer behavioural changes caused by pricing carbon may be unwinding.

“The data suggests that households have been changing their attitudes to electricity

consumption, and hence to their consumption behaviour, much as they changed their attitudes and behaviour to water consumption during the drought of a few years ago,” the briefing stated. “We may now be seeing signs that this attitudinal effect has run its course.”

Last week, the Coalition gained the Senate votes for its alternative climate change policy, which will provide $2.55bn in voluntary grants to businesses that wish to reduce emissions. Auctions for the emissions reduction schemes will start early next year.

The government has hailed figures showing a sharp fall in electricity prices as justification for scrapping the carbon pricing, insisting it will reach its target of a 5% emissions cut by 2020, based on 2000 levels.

However, Christine Milne, the leader of the Greens, said she wasn’t surprised that emissions have risen for four months in a row since the carbon price was dismantled.

“By putting a price on carbon, we had seen the emissions from electricity generation come down,” she said. “They were down by at least 4%. It was a really good news story.

“Now, with the abolition of emissions trading, they are going up and we’re going to see an increased trend of more emissions from black and brown coal, right around the country, to the detriment of the climate.”

A major report released by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on Sunday said fossil fuels should virtually be phased out by 2100 if the world is to avoid dangerous climate change.

However, Tony Abbott said on Tuesday that coal will be the “foundation of our prosperity” for the foreseeable future.

“Coal is the foundation of the way we live because you can’t have a modern lifestyle without energy,” he said.