That's letting Republicans play offense, and as Eliana Johnson reports in Politico, Trump-allied groups are targeting the Democrats from the reddest states to complicate any opposition to Trump's nominees to the Environmental Protection Agency and the Justice Department. America Rising Squared has launched campaigns to defend Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), and is planning TV ads to pressure Democratic Sens. Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Jon Tester (Mont.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) and Joe Manchin III (W.Va.). The Judicial Confirmation Network, which pressured Republicans to block any hearings on the open Supreme Court seat, is similarly moving to offense.

But rarely has a president entered office with as little political capital as Trump. Having won more states and congressional districts than any Republican since 1988, he did so with low favorable ratings that have barely moved since Election Day. In the five states lost by Mitt Romney but won by Trump, and that have Senate races in 2018 — Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump's average favorable rating was 40 percent. In Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin, his favorable rating was actually lower than Hillary Clinton's; his victory was sealed by voters who disliked both candidates.

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There was no exit polling in Montana, North Dakota or West Virginia, uncompetitive states with no 2016 Senate races on the ballot. But according to the exit poll in Missouri, just 46 percent of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Trump. Just 42 percent said he was “honest and trustworthy,” while the same percentage said he had the “temperament to be president.” In Indiana, where running mate Mike Pence helped Trump win easily, the numbers were identical — just 46 percent approving of Trump and 42 percent giving him high marks on character and temperament.