A large majority of white evangelicals voted for Roy Moore – 80%, according to exit polls – in Alabama, in the deep south, in a solidly red state. And they lost.

The results of Alabama’s Senate race are an omen for the future of white evangelical politics. White evangelicals, as a whole, are still flexing some political muscle. But their future outlook is of an embattled political bloc with extremist views and diminishing power to decide elections.

Moore was a fundamentalist Christian hero. He was removed from office twice while serving as Alabama’s chief justice: first for refusing to remove a 5,280lb Ten Commandments monument he installed in the state court house; then for defying the US supreme court by directing probate judges not to issue marriage licenses to gay people.

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Although Moore faced serious allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, involving women as young as 14, white evangelical voters were largely undeterred in their support for him. Nevertheless, they were unable to propel him to victory. The key factor: although most white evangelicals voted for Moore, they only made up 44% of total voters.

At first glance, some may chalk this up to evangelicals staying home. White evangelicals’ total share of the vote dipped in comparison with the 47% share they had in the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections. Yet the factors are more complicated.

Tuesday’s special election in Alabama was far more representative of the state’s population than is usually the case

According to the Pew Research Center, white evangelicals comprise – at most – 49% of Alabama’s population. Considering national religious trends in the past few years, this number is probably a little lower.

Moreover, white evangelical voters are typically overrepresented, especially in midterm elections, when minority and younger voters usually have lower turnout. This was no longer the case in Alabama’s Senate race on Tuesday night.

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African Americans constituted 29% of all voters, aligning more closely with their share of Alabama’s total population. In this light, Tuesday’s special election for Alabama’s open Senate seat was far more representative of the state’s population than is usually the case. Within an environment of strong voter suppression, the fight for voting rights shows what is possible when conditions are more democratic.

Roy Moore’s loss is not attributable to a depressed white evangelical vote. Sure, some may have stayed at home or opted to write in another candidate. But many still stuck by the politician they saw as defending their priorities on abortion, gun rights, and same-sex marriage.

The reality is that the white evangelical vote is losing its power. As the Public Religion Research Institute has demonstrated, white Christians have been consistently declining as a proportion of the country’s electorate. The percentage of white Christians living in this country fell to 43% in 2016. By 2024, white Christians are projected to no longer constitute a majority of voters in the United States.

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While white evangelicals have typically made up for their decline through overrepresentation in midterm elections, Alabama’s race shows that even this pattern might not hold.

Once deemed the Moral Majority, white evangelicals are increasingly looking like they will be an immoral minority in the landscape of American politics. Backing alleged sexual predators and discriminatory policies, they are losing elections having already forfeited their souls. They are cracking as a firewall for Donald Trump and the extreme sectors of an extremist political party.

As the religious right’s obituary is being written, another chapter is yet to form. This one includes Christians of color and attempts to reconstruct a viable religious left. Nevertheless, such a coalition is still fraught with its own problems.

The degree to which a substantial religious left can exert political influence is still up in the air. But one thing is clear: the religious political playbook in the United States is changing.