Analyst Ben Kallo at W.R. Baird on Wednesday reiterated his outperform rating and $386 price target on Tesla (TSLA) - Get Report but added that if all goes smoothly with its Model 3 production and rollout targets, the stock should trade above $500 a share.

Tesla shares closed up $6.36, or 2.1% at $310.22.

"We continue to believe a successful Model 3 launch will be an inflection point for the stock and recommend owning shares into the launch," Kallo told clients in the note. "We outline a path to a >$500 TSLA share price, which we believe is feasible if management achieves its stated targets."

Kallo added that at $500 a share Tesla's market cap would be more than $80 billion.

The note stands in stark contrast to a note published May 11 by Goldman Sachs, which soothed the anguish of burned short sellers by keeping its sell rating on the technology darling and set a $190 target for the shares.

That translates into an expectation by Goldman that the stock, currently at about $322, has about a one-third downside over the next year, while Baird's note implies, in a perfect scenario, an 86% upside.

Goldman's David Tamberrino noted potential delays in rolling out the firm's Model 3 and said that he believes Tesla will miss targeted production rates. Tamberrino cut his full-year 2017 EPS estimate to a loss of $2.53 from a previous 30 cents a share loss target.

He also sharply cut his estimates for 2018 - to a 69 cents a share profit from a previous $$2.59, and his 2019 outlook is now for $5.14 a share, a bit lighter than his previous expectation of $5.95.

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