“IT IS CLEAR that [in elections] voters respond much more to short-term growth than to long-term growth”. In other words, an incumbent government is very likely to be re-elected if in recent months the economy has been improving. Paul Krugman, who is spending some time at Oxford University, mused on this finding (which has broad support amongst political scientists) at a lecture yesterday. Mr Krugman delivered a familiar (and not terribly well-prepared) speech on the perils of British austerity.

Mr Krugman made an interesting, if somewhat conspiratorial, point. He argued that the British government’s economic policy between 2010 and 2012 was completely destructive. Indeed, as we have argued before, the British economy is still lagging behind its pre-crisis trend. He then pointed out that things started to get better around 2013—thanks in no small part to an easing of austerity. Growth only really got going at the end of 2014—as the election loomed.