Welcome back to RotoBaller's midseason rankings update. Today, we'll be taking a look at the top half of the outfield, with Part 2 coming tomorrow. These rankings were compiled by myself, Nick Mariano, and Bill Dubiel, and any players ranked too high or low are definitely the fault of my colleagues. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading.

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2016 Fantasy Baseball Midseason Rankings Analysis: Outfield (Part 1)

Tier One

Mike Trout

Remember when people were suggesting that Bryce Harper had surpassed Trout as the best player in baseball, either real or fantasy (or both)? Yeah…about that. Trout has cut his strikeout rate, started stealing bases again, and gotten better against curveballs and in deep counts. He currently has a 44.0 fWAR for his career. That makes him better than all but 249 players in the history of baseball, and he’s not even 25 years old yet. WAR isn’t perfect, of course, but you get the point. As D’Angelo Barksdale once said, “The king stay the king.” It’s Mike Trout’s world. We’re all just living in it.

Tier Two

Kris Bryant

Bryce Harper

Mookie Betts

Starling Marte

George Springer

Carlos Gonzalez

Giancarlo Stanton

Ryan Braun

Not to say Harper’s not a generational talent himself. Even in a disappointing sequel to his MVP season, Harper is on pace for 35 homers and 24 stolen bases, and walking more often than he strikes out. His BABIP is also a good 70 points below his career mark at the moment. Speaking of BABIP, Bryant’s predictably seen some regression there, but cutting down significantly on his swings and misses has allowed him to improve upon his phenomenal rookie year. In 265 fewer plate appearances, he’s already nearly equaled his home run total from last season, and only Josh Donaldson has tallied more R+RBI than Bryant’s 138. Betts is third. He’s on pace to set career bests in all five standard categories. You want to talk about career bests? How about Marte having 30 stolen bases in each of the last two seasons, and stealing 30 in the first half this year? That’s helped make up for his expected power decline. Springer’s not running as much as we might have hoped, but he’s stayed healthy so far and headed for a 30 homer campaign. Stanton’s recent struggles were well-documented, but he’s still piled up counting stats. Gonzalez and Braun may be on the wrong side of 30 with long injury histories, but for now, they remain among the best outfielders in fantasy baseball.

Tier Three

Gregory Polanco

Wil Myers

Ian Desmond

Yoenis Cespedes

Nelson Cruz

Chris Davis

Mark Trumbo

Charlie Blackmon

Jose Bautista

Andrew McCutchen

After some growing pains, Polanco has become the all-around player many thought he could be. After some literal pains (mostly in the wrists) cost him the better part of the last two seasons, Myers has regained the form that helped him win Rookie of the Year honors in 2013. We haven’t had a 30/30 season at the MLB level since 2012, but Myers has an honest shot at it. That would make him the second first baseman to ever accomplish the feat, after Jeff Bagwell. Desmond shook off an atrocious 2015 and an even worse start to this year and is on his way to a career season while making a seamless transition from shortstop to center field. Plenty of people expected Cespedes to fall off from the torrid pace he set in his first two months at a Met last season. He’s somehow been even better so far in 2016. Cruz is gunning for his third straight 40 homer season at age 36. Davis led MLB in homers two of the last three years, and he’s second on his own team right now to Trumbo, whose 28 lead everyone at the break. Blackmon hasn’t run as wild as he did last year, though he’s having his best season by most other measures. While it’s true that Bautista and McCutchen weren’t their usual dominant selves in the first half, their talent and track records make it difficult to rank them much lower.

Tier Four

Marcell Ozuna

Stephen Piscotty

Brandon Belt

Carlos Beltran

Christian Yelich

Ben Zobrist

Jay Bruce

Adam Jones

Jackie Bradley

Miguel Sano

Ozuna has bounced back in a big way from his difficult 2015, while teammate Yelich continues to be a terrific hitter despite not flashing much power. Piscotty and Belt are having similar seasons. Beltran, at age 39, is on pace for more home runs than he’s hit since he was 29. Fellow graybeard Zobrist has rediscovered his pop while showcasing his typically excellent plate discipline. He’s on a 110-run pace. Bruce may be a horrid defender, but he’s been quite good at the plate so far. Whichever contender finally trades for him will hope he avoids the second-half swoon that capsized his 2015. Jones is a virtual lock for his fifth straight 25 HR season and figures to top 100 runs and 100 RBI for good measure. Bradley’s perceived value was at its nadir a year ago; now, he’s deservedly starting in the All-Star Game. Sano started slow and then suffered an injury right when he was finding a groove, but he remains one of the game’s most exciting young talents.

Tier Five

Justin Upton

Adam Duvall

Matt Kemp

Dexter Fowler

Odubel Herrera

Melvin Upton Jr.

J.D. Martinez

Kole Calhoun

Lorenzo Cain

Jacoby Ellsbury

Shin-Soo Choo

What kind of odds do you think you could’ve gotten in Vegas back in March if you’d been able to bet on which Upton brother would be better in 2016? Justin’s Tigers career couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start, but he’s always been a streaky hitter and it’s not unreasonable to expect a big second half as he continues to adjust to a new league. Meanwhile, the Artist Formerly Known as Bossman Junior has resurrected his career with a vintage performance. He’s the only player in baseball with 15 HR and 20 SB at the break. Duvall’s a one-trick pony, but plenty of people would love to mash taters like he does. Fowler was headed for a career year before landing on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Herrera’s more than doubled his walk rate, trimmed his whiffs and tapped into more power after a surprisingly excellent rookie year. Martinez is working his way back from a broken elbow and would rank significantly higher if that weren’t the case. Cain is on the shelf as well, though his performance before the injury was somewhat disappointing. Did you know that Calhoun is 17th among all outfielders in fWAR since the start of 2014? Ellsbury has managed to avoid the disabled list, mostly because I drafted Aaron Hicks in a bunch of leagues. You’re welcome, Ellsbury owners. Avoiding injury is one thing Choo hasn’t done this season, but he’s been excellent when on the field.

Tier Six

Khris Davis

Mike Napoli

Nomar Mazara

Josh Reddick

Matt Holliday

Hanley Ramirez

Danny Valencia

Michael Saunders

Adam Eaton

Billy Hamilton

It feels like Napoli isn’t getting a lot of pub for his fantastic first half. Sure, the average is middling, but the counting stats have more than made up for it. Davis offers a similar profile. Mazara’s scuffled badly of late, but remember that he’s barely old enough to drink legally. Kid’s gonna be special, and he’s got the talent to successfully adjust in the second half. Reddick’s hot start to the year was derailed by injury, as usual. Saunders, meanwhile, has managed to avoid the trainer’s room and is well on his way to a career year. It’s weird to see Holliday hitting .240, but he’s at least recovered the power he lost last season and you have to figure the average will climb. His contract still sucks, but Year 2 in Boston has gone a lot better for HanRam. Valencia picked up right where he left off last year and figures to be an asset to whatever contender acquires him later this month. Let’s just forget that I floated the idea that Eaton might be a better draft value than Mookie Betts at one point this offseason. At least my enduring skepticism toward the Hamburglar has been valid.

Midseason Outfield Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Rank Player Name Team Tier 1 Mike Trout LAA 1 2 Kris Bryant CHC 2 3 Bryce Harper WSH 2 4 Mookie Betts BOS 2 5 Starling Marte PIT 2 6 George Springer HOU 2 7 Carlos Gonzalez COL 2 8 Giancarlo Stanton MIA 2 9 Ryan Braun MIL 2 10 Gregory Polanco PIT 3 11 Wil Myers SD 3 12 Ian Desmond TEX 3 13 Yoenis Cespedes NYM 3 14 Nelson Cruz SEA 3 15 Chris Davis BAL 3 16 Mark Trumbo BAL 3 17 Charlie Blackmon COL 3 18 Jose Bautista TOR 3 19 Andrew McCutchen PIT 3 20 Marcell Ozuna MIA 4 21 Stephen Piscotty STL 4 22 Brandon Belt SF 4 23 Carlos Beltran NYY 4 24 Christian Yelich MIA 4 25 Ben Zobrist CHC 4 26 Jay Bruce CIN 4 27 Adam Jones BAL 4 28 Jackie Bradley BOS 4 29 Miguel Sano MIN 4 30 Justin Upton DET 5 31 Adam Duvall CIN 5 32 Matt Kemp SD 5 33 Dexter Fowler CHC 5 34 Odubel Herrera PHI 5 35 Melvin Upton Jr. SD 5 36 J.D. Martinez DET 5 37 Kole Calhoun LAA 5 38 Lorenzo Cain KC 5 39 Jacoby Ellsbury NYY 5 40 Shin-Soo Choo TEX 5 41 Khris Davis OAK 6 42 Mike Napoli CLE 6 43 Nomar Mazara TEX 6 44 Josh Reddick OAK 6 45 Matt Holliday STL 6 46 Hanley Ramirez BOS 6 47 Danny Valencia OAK 6 48 Michael Saunders TOR 6 49 Adam Eaton CWS 6 50 Billy Hamilton CIN 6 51 Leonys Martin SEA 7 52 Yasiel Puig LAD 7 53 Corey Dickerson TB 7 54 Trayce Thompson LAD 7 55 Evan Gattis HOU 7 56 Michael Brantley CLE 7 57 Melky Cabrera CWS 7 58 Yasmany Tomas ARI 7 59 Kevin Pillar TOR 7 60 Jason Heyward CHC 7 61 Joc Pederson LAD 7 62 Ben Revere WSH 7 63 Curtis Granderson NYM 8 64 Brandon Moss STL 8 65 Rajai Davis CLE 8 66 Steven Souza TB 8 67 Brett Gardner NYY 8 68 Colby Rasmus HOU 8 69 Jayson Werth WSH 8 70 Alex Gordon KC 8 71 Gerardo Parra COL 8 72 Steve Pearce TB 8 73 Cameron Maybin DET 8 74 David Peralta ARI 8 75 Nick Markakis ATL 8 76 Josh Harrison PIT 8 77 Michael Conforto NYM 8 78 Denard Span SF 9 79 Hunter Pence SF 9 80 Angel Pagan SF 9 81 Ender Inciarte ATL 9 82 Carlos Gomez HOU 9 83 Billy Burns OAK 9 84 Domingo Santana MIL 9 85 Franklin Gutierrez SEA 9 86 Byron Buxton MIN 9 87 Derek Dietrich MIA 9 88 Jon Jay SD 9 89 John Jaso PIT 9 90 Jarrod Dyson KC 9 91 Ryan Rua TEX 10 92 Randal Grichuk STL 10 93 Kevin Kiermaier TB 10 94 Max Kepler MIN 10 95 Mallex Smith ATL 10 96 Jorge Soler CHC 10 97 Brad Miller TB 10 98 Jarrett Parker SF 10 99 Blake Swihart BOS 10 100 Brandon Drury ARI 10 101 Avisail Garcia CWS 10 102 Howie Kendrick LAD 10 103 Kolten Wong STL 10 104 Eddie Rosario MIN 10 105 Danny Santana MIN 11 106 Chris Owings ARI 11 107 Tyler Naquin CLE 11 108 Austin Jackson CWS 11 109 Norichika Aoki SEA 11 110 Tommy Pham STL 11 111 Aaron Hicks NYY 11 112 Michael Taylor WSH 11 113 Coco Crisp OAK 11 114 Joey Rickard BAL 11 115 Socrates Brito ARI 11 116 Andre Ethier LAD 11 117 Delino DeShields TEX 11 118 Enrique Hernandez LAD 11 119 Carl Crawford FA 11 120 Adonis Garcia ATL 11 121 Dalton Pompey TOR 11 122 Jeremy Hazelbaker STL 11 123 Brock Holt BOS 11 124 Desmond Jennings TB 11 125 Anthony Gose DET 11 126 Rusney Castillo BOS 11 127 Chris Coghlan CHC 11 128 Paulo Orlando KC 11 129 Oswaldo Arcia TB 11 130 Scott Schebler CIN 11

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