The British business world suffered another setback last week, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicated he would be prepared to walk away from Brexit talks this summer if sufficient progress had not yet been made. A failure to strike a working deal with the EU would surely damage confidence in British markets even further, with many executives already feeling a keen sense of doom regarding the future. According to a study of FTSE 350 companies, nearly half of those surveyed said they expected Brexit to have a detrimental effect on their business, writes Colin Stevens.

In times of national difficulty such as these, the British have traditionally sought solace among their favourite pastimes, football chief among them. However, the same uncertainties that businesses face apply to the Premier League as well. Regulatory confusion regarding player transfers, assets held in British pounds and a possible inability to compete with European top tier clubs, are threatening the Premier League’s status as the most coveted competition in the world.

Uncertainty reigns supreme

The list of damaging consequences of a break from the Union without a proper agreement in place is long. Indeed, the idea of a “level playing field” may comprise the biggest hurdle to a working trade agreement, but its ramifications could unsettle plenty of other playing fields. At present, EU nationals can move freely between member states, meaning Premier League clubs can just as easily sign a Portuguese player as they can one from Portsmouth. Analysis carried out by FiveThirtyEight revealed that 41% of those playing in England’s top league hail from a non-UK or Irish EU nation.

Post-Brexit, it’s probable that those players will need to apply for a work permit and jump through the same hoops with which non-EU players are currently tasked. Obtaining said permits involves a delicate formula based upon the percentage of games the player has participated in for their national team over the previous two years, as well as the size of the transfer fee and wages they are commanding.

Tellingly, FiveThirtyEight found that of the 1,022 EU players who have transferred to the Premiership since its inception in 1992, a mere 431 – or 42% - would qualify under the new criteria. That means that legends such as Gianluca Vialli and Cesc Fabregas, as well as contemporary stars N’Golo Kanté and Riyad Mahrez, would never have featured. Given that both latter players were instrumental in earning Leicester City’s shock triumph in 2015-16, their absence would almost certainly have changed the course of Premier League history.

Quite aside from the freedom of movement of players, the detrimental impact that Brexit continues to have on the UK economy impinges on Premier League clubs’ financial clout. Prior to the June 2016 referendum, one English pound was worth €1.26. Today, it’s valued at just €1.11 and that slump shows no sign of abating. The lucrative TV deals that England currently enjoy is certain to keep them in clover the foreseeable future, but in a sport of such fine margins, a failure to compete financially with the Real Madrids and PSGs of this world could have huge repercussions in the long run.

Finding hope among the doubt

Unsurprisingly, the Football Association (FA) have put a brave face on the situation. Despite the fact that their ex-chairman Richard Scudamore was staunchly against Brexit prior to the referendum, the FA have since attempted to turn an obstacle into an opportunity by suggesting a drop in the maximum allowable number of foreigners in a team’s squad. At present, 17 non-British players are permitted, but the FA is proposing using Brexit to reduce that figure to 12.

This would augment the number of British players in each squad and increase the amount of playing time that the country’s best young prospects receive, thereby theoretically improving the calibre of the national team in the process. However, the reality might not be so rosy. Statistical analysis has revealed that Champions League-winning teams have, on average, 16 foreigners among their ranks. Reducing the number that English clubs are allowed to employ could simply hamstring them against continental opposition.

However, not everyone working in the industry is so negative about a post-Brexit Premiership. Bakari Sanogo, the agent responsible for bringing French midfielder Moussa Sissoko to Tottenham Hotspur and installing him as an indispensable member of their team, has expressed his belief that the League will continue to retain its competitive edge.

“Brexit's main problem, in football as in everything else, is uncertainty. It's true that the English championship is entering a period of uncertainty, but the English know how to sit things out,” Bakari Sanogo explains. “English clubs, financially powerful, with real experience in training and scouting, will be able to bounce back. All the more so as most of them have a real culture of winning in European cups. With European players no longer enjoying a recruitment advantage, it is also likely that English clubs will turn more to other continents, particularly Africa.”

Winds of change are brewing

With Sanogo’s and Scudamore’s words in mind, it’s possible that the Premiership can use Brexit to explore new markets to maintain its prestigious talent pool. Whether that be at home or abroad, the fact that certain clubs in the league are in possession of some of the most respect academies in the world means they should be able to secure their global appeal many years beyond Brexit.

In any case, the one clear indication among this uncertainty is that change is imminent. The Premier League has already shown its willingness to adapt to the shifting sands of football by trialling a winter break this season and reverting to the traditional transfer window model for the coming one. Brexit will prove perhaps the sternest test of that ability to acclimatise to date – but it’s one that the world’s self-professed best league will surely overcome.