At first, U.S. retailers were most concerned about manufacturing facilities being disrupted by COVID-19 in China, where the virus originated.

Now, in the midst of a global pandemic, this is a much bigger issue than China. While some manufacturing operations are getting back up and running, much of the rest of the world is in distress.

The coronavirus could deal a blow to companies already on the brink of going out of business. While it may seem far off, the disruption is already starting to impact the shipment of goods to retailers for the back-to-school season, analysts say. And if the situation persists, it could end up hitting the holidays, when many retailers make the bulk of their profits.

"In 25 years, I have never seen anything like this," parcel managing and logistics platform ShipMatrix President Satish Jindel said. "There is a psychological element, which is very hard to predict. ... This is an unprecedented situation."

Parcel volume fell 2.4% among manufacturing customers in February 2020 compared with a year ago, according to data pulled by ShipMatrix. Health-care parcel volume dropped 2.2%, it said. And parcel volume was down 1.8% in the automotive and auto-parts sector.

COVID-19 first emerged in Wuhan, China on Dec. 31. By the end of January, the region was sliding into isolation. Wuhan, a city of 11 million and the capital of central Hubei province, virtually went into lockdown, with nearly all flights at Wuhan's airport canceled and checkpoints blocking the main roads leading out of town.

The virus has since spread into the U.S., Canada, Italy, Spain, France, South Korea, Iran and Germany, among other countries. There have been more than 179,000 cases confirmed globally, and at least 7,057 deaths, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University.

It was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on Wednesday. The U.S. declared a national emergency on Friday. Retailers are faced with the reality that there will be supply chain implications, beyond just sourcing and production in China. And some will be more prepared to weather the storm than others.

Still, one cannot ignore the role China plays, by itself, in so many businesses getting goods onto shelves. Overall, roughly 20% of U.S. retailers' supply chains are exposed to China, according to data pulled by Cowen & Co.

Shoemaker Steve Madden, with some of the biggest exposure, has said about 73% of its goods are sourced from China. For Best Buy, it is 60%. For online furniture company Wayfair, it is about 50% of goods. Each American Eagle, Kohl's and Calvin Klein owner PVH source about 20% of goods from China.