After the first two UFC shows of the year, the talk was about close decisions and controversial judging. After the third show on Saturday night, it was mostly about surprise submissions.





Anthony "Rumble" Johnson's 86-second knockout win over Ryan Bader in the main event, putting him in the front of the line for a future light heavyweight title shot, was neither a surprise nor a submission. It was impressive given how little time it took Johnson to put Bader away. But anytime Johnson fights, the lights can go out on his opponent at a moment's notice.





Josh Barnett losing to Ben Rothwell in a heavyweight showdown was a minor upset, but on its own, wouldn't have been a huge surprise. Barnett losing via submission to Rothwell, well, that's another story.





Similarly, Sage Northcutt losing, while not expected by most, was something bound to happen at some point as it would be with almost fighter in the sport. At the age of 19, writing a fighter off based on one loss is preposterous. But the nature of his submission loss opened up some real questions, and ended up after the fact, being the most talked about story on the show.





With Barnett, in a 19-year MMA career, he had never tapped out to a submission hold. He did submit in a 2004 fight with Mirko Cro Cop, but that wasn't from a submission application, but a shoulder injury that he couldn't continue fighting with. He had tapped out in pure submission competition, but those losses also came in 2000, and his ground game is ridiculously more advanced today than it was at that point. Rothwell had only used a submission maneuver to win one fight in the last eight years, over Matt Mitrione, and had never tapped out someone at Barnett's level.





The main take is that anything can happen in the sport. When someone who is 38 loses, the question is always about whether they should continue. But Barnett was facing someone who now has to be in the discussion for a heavyweight title shot, and was competitive with him the entire way until the shocking finish. There was nothing in the fight that said that if they were rematched, Barnett wouldn't have a good shot of winning.





Barnett won the first round on all three scorecards, and simply left himself open on a takedown attempt. For Northcutt, the situation was very different.





It wasn't the shock of him getting caught, it was of him tapping at the moment he did. Northcutt (7-1), had taken the first round from Bryan Barbarena (11-3), in a fight put together clearly to showcase Northcutt on FOX. Northcutt has been a UFC pet project since Dana White introduced him on his "Lookin' for a Fight" YouTube show in the fall.





This isn't a sport where one loss puts you on the scrap heap. But when Northcutt tapped to an arm triangle while holding half guard, a move that is rarely if ever a submission on the major league stage, and in a fight where he never looked in serious trouble, it opened up real questions.





Every UFC fighter, from Jon Jones on down, is going to face serious adversity during their career. Even the most talented fighters have bad days. The mark of a top fighter is someone who when put in an adverse position, usually gets out of trouble. No matter how talented a fighter is, if they don't have the mentality to do that, they are not going very far in this sport.





It was less than two months ago when UFC was promoted a show around "Sage and Paige," the hot prospects, with hot having a different meaning than one usually uses for it for fighters. There was actually discussion on television and in the media regarding both, including whether either could beat Jon Jones' record for the youngest UFC champion ever. The discussions were premature to begin with, and today those talks seem laughable.





Both lost, and it wasn't because they got caught with a punch, or because of a bad decision. They were both exposed as being nowhere near top level. But with Paige VanZant, her loss was because she didn't have the skill, but in losing, she showed unquestioned heart. She fought through round-after round without an answer for her opponent. She still continued to get out of one bad position after another.

With Northcutt, he seemed the more skilled of the two men in the cage. In his fight with Cody Pfister, there was a hole in his game, that when he is on his back, he doesn't get up so quickly. But he survived and came back to win that fight. When the same thing happened in round two with Barbarena, he once again didn't get up quickly. This time he tapped in a spot nobody expected him to. Already resented by some fighters and fans because of his face, physique, hype and paycheck, the slightest hint of being unable to handle adversity added to his character traits is only going to make him resented even worse.





Northcutt since revealed that he nearly pulled out of the fight with strep throat, and fought while loaded up on antibiotics. Fighting probably wasn't the smartest move in hindsight. He'll have every opportunity to rebound, but discussions and expectations about championships are going to have to be earned in the cage going forward.





Let's look at how Fortunes Changed for Five stars of Saturday night's show at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.

ANTHONY JOHNSON - Johnson (21-5) was here right here a year ago. In a bout to determine the next light heavyweight title contender on the January FOX main event, Johnson flattened Alexander Gustafsson in 2:15. He then lost his title bout to Daniel Cormier.





Now, he's likely to face the winner of Jones vs. Cormier II, even if Cormier says otherwise. Cormier's version of the top of the division is he's beating Jones in their rematch, and then facing Jones in the rubber match, and that Johnson will have to wait until 2017.





If Jones wins, there is no question Johnson should be his first opponent. If things go like Cormier says, and Johnson would have to wait a long time, Glover Teixiera (24-4) makes the most sense as the next opponent.





With Johnson's power, whether it's Jones, Cormier or Teixeira, they can't afford a mistake, because one bad position, or being open for one punch can end the night quickly.





RYAN BADER - Bader's five-fight winning streak went down fast. Bader, more and more, is looking like a fighter who can remain high in the division for years, but when matched against the true elite fighters, like Johnson and Jones, he doesn't fare well.





As far as who he should fight next, the best foes would be Alexander Gustafsson (16-4) or Teixeira. With Gustafsson, a win would be the quickest way out of the perception as a contender who can't be champion. It's a logical match at this point. Gustafsson may have lost three of four, but he took both Jones and Cormier to the limit. Bader lost to Teixeira in 2013, in a short fight where both men ended up in trouble right away.





BEN ROTHWELL - Rothwell's win, most notably the matter which he won and the stage he won it on, makes the heavyweight championship picture even more interesting.





Dana White said earlier in the week that Cain Velasquez, who was to get a title shot at Fabricio Werdum this week, would be undergoing back surgery. However, he also said Velasquez would only be out for four weeks. With Werdum also being out due to several injuries, the company is filled with options.





Werdum (20-5-1) could face Velasquez (13-2), as was planned. Velasquez is the biggest name with the most UFC championship and main event history of the four viable contenders. Rothwell (36-9), has won four in a row, including a win over Alistair Overeem. Overeem (40-14, 1 no contest), has three wins in a row, the last two over Roy Nelson and Junior Dos Santos. He's also not under contract at this point, but the UFC does have the right to match any outside offer. Stipe Miocic (14-2), has won five of six, with the loss close against Dos Santos. But his last fight was a 50-second win over Andrei Arlovski, coming off a stoppage of Mark Hunt. When Velasquez went down, Miocic was the person the UFC picked for the title shot.





If the UFC goes with Velasquez as the next contender, then Rothwell vs. Miocic looks the way to go. If they go with Overeem as the contender, the same still goes. If it's Miocic, then Velasquez vs. Overeem looks like a viable direction, leaving Rothwell with Dos Santos (17-4) or Travis Browne (18-3-1).





JOSH BARNETT - Even though he lost, Barnett has no shortage of opponents for a high profile fight. Arlovski (25-11), Junior dos Santos (17-4) and Mark Hunt (11-10-1) could all main event a television show against Barnett or be a strong main card fight on pay-per-view. A win would keep him strong in a division that lacks depth, and a division where age isn't as much of a factor because most of the top 15 are over 35.





WILSON REIS - Reis (20-6) scored a solid decision win over Dustin Ortiz (15-5) in a prelim fight that pitted two ranked flyweights against each other.





Reis put on a dominant takedown and grappling performance to move to 3-1 since debuting as a flyweight. Both Kyoji Horiguchi (16-2) and Louis Smolka (10-1) are awaiting opponents and either fight would be a solid contenders fight. The problem with flyweight is that nobody sees anyone being able to beat Demetrious Johnson, so the movement in the top ten isn't focused on as much as in other weight classes.