“He’s struggling to get above 40 percent,” said long-time GOP pollster Glen Bolger. “This could cost him a couple of points. He’s going to get 38 to 40 percent of the vote in swing areas, and swing states, and there’s a huge chasm between that and what Republicans running for Senate or House needs to win.”

From the start, Trump’s unconventional candidacy has been defined by passionate support from some voters and implacable resistance from others. Even during the Republican primary, Trump struggled to attract much more than 40 percent support until late in the contest-despite the visceral connection he established with his heavily blue-collar coalition. And even as he marched toward the Republican nomination, he consistently faced unfavorable ratings from about 60 percent of the general public. Those numbers haven’t improved since.

The latest controversy could reinforce this polarized dynamic. On Saturday after the video’s release, Trump was renounced by a remarkable procession of Republican leaders, ranging from Senators John McCain, Kelly Ayotte and John Thune to Ohio Gov. John Kasich and perhaps most strikingly former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. By Saturday night nearly one-third of the 54 Republican Senators had announced they were not supporting Trump. Probably so many Republican leaders have not repudiated their party’s presidential nominee in 24 hours since the day in June 1912 when Theodore Roosevelt’s supporters stampeded out of the convention re-nominating William Howard Taft to form the competing Bull Moose party.

Trump and his allies have already signaled that they hope to further energize his base by arguing that the wildfire besieging his campaign represented an effort by party elites and the media to stifle not only him but also the voters who propelled him to the nomination. But by all indications, Trump’s core support is too small to win the election. In the rolling poll average compiled by HuffPost Pollster, Trump’s support in the four-way race has not exceeded 40 percent at any point since May; in the RealClearPolitics.com average, Trump’s support now stands at 40.9 percent.

In the major media polls archived on that site, Trump’s support has exceeded 43 percent in only two surveys since September 1, and reached that level in just two more. Especially if support for Johnson and Stein erodes as the election nears––the usual pattern for third-party candidates––the eventual winner will almost certainly need to attract more than that to prevail.

Across party lines, almost all strategists agree the latest controversy would further constrain Trump’s ability to expand his support beyond his current limits. Trump has been stuck around 40 percent primarily because he is underperforming any previous Republican nominee among college-educated white voters. Though no Democratic presidential nominee has carried most of those voters in the history of modern polling dating back to 1952, almost all recent surveys have shown Clinton at worst running even among them, and usually leading Trump; last week’s Atlantic/Public Religion Research Institute survey, for instance, gave Clinton a 10 percentage point lead among them.