by Cian Fahey

For the past 24 hours, it has been easy to picture Brock Osweiler standing on a stage next to Ryan Seacrest or some other forgettable face in a suit, celebrating his new contract from the Houston Texans. Maybe there is a single tear of joy sliding down his cheek as he receives overwhelming applause from his new fanbase. Maybe he drops to his knees and throws his hands in the air, unleashing all of the emotion that has been built up over the past few months.

It's not that Osweiler's Robert Pattinson-like facial features make him an ideal stage actor; it's that his career arc resembles that of someone who won X Factor, American Idol, or The Voice.

When Osweiler first tried to establish himself as an NFL quarterback, he was passed over by every team in the league. He wasn't taken in the first round of the 2012 draft. Fifty-six players and four other quarterbacks went off the board before the Denver Broncos chose him. When he landed in Denver, he was trapped behind Peyton Manning for three and a half years. Osweiler couldn't establish himself as a starting quarterback in the traditional way. He would be forced to wait before eventually seizing his opportunity in 2015.

Those TV shows typically don't span longer than a few months. Osweiler's time on the field during the 2015 season, and therefore his time on the field for his whole career, lasted roughly two months. During those two months, Osweiler didn't play particularly well. Using data from the Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue, Osweiler threw an interceptable pass once every 21.2 attempts (27th among the quarterbacks in the catalogue) while throwing accurately on just 76.2 percent of his passes (22nd). But that's OK. In these TV shows you don't need to be great to be the winner. You can be benched for Peyton Manning and still be rewarded for your below-average ability.

Playing subpar football for two months landed Osweiler one big contract. His $72 million deal suggests he will be around for at least four years in Houston, but his actual skill set and play to this point suggests he's more likely to follow the majority of those who have taken the talent show path to fame.

The main issue with Osweiler is his lack of a standout trait. He doesn't have great arm talent like Derek Carr. He doesn't have exceptional intelligence and decision-making skills like Jameis Winston. If you're going to be a well-rounded quarterback in the NFL, you need to be closer to Marcus Mariota than Brian Hoyer. You need the majority of your traits to be above average rather than below. Even though Osweiler had his moments during his stretch of starts in Denver, he mostly proved to be a mediocre quarterback who made bad decisions in the pocket, lacked subtlety, and couldn't throw with precision. He could make some impressive moves in the pocket that highlighted his poise, but that was often negated by his awkward movement. Osweiler's size impacts his timing as a passer so even when he extends plays inside the pocket he is unlikely to hit receivers in stride through tight windows.

The Broncos continued to win with Osweiler as their starter and he had a positive touchdown-to-interception ratio, so Denver can justify drafting him. As Peyton Manning proved, the Broncos were going to win games regardless of who was their starter last year. As for Osweiler's touchdown-to-interception ratio, small sample sizes and some luck can craft a misleading line. Again from the Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue, only 23.1 percent of Osweiler's interceptable passes turned into actual interceptions. This means that very few of his passes that should have been interceptions were caught by the defense. Only two quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Brian Hoyer, were luckier than Osweiler last year.

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This was one of Osweiler's worst plays from the 2015 season. With just 18 seconds left in the second quarter and the Broncos leading by 14 points, Osweiler's priority should be to take care of the football. Not only is he oblivious to his team's situation, he's also oblivious to how much time he has in the pocket and what kind of coverage the defense is playing. Osweiler stares down his post route, a post route that is running into the thickest part of the secondary's coverage. His pass arrives perfectly for Eric Weddle to break onto at speed. Weddle would have been running into space from a position that would have been relatively easy to score from, or at least set up a field goal before halftime.



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Weddle dropped the ball so the interception never happened. The interception is less important than the action though.

One of the main issues with Osweiler is that he makes very bad decisions and struggles to read coverage. He is essentially a rookie even though he has been in the league for four years. As much as playing behind a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady is made into a talking point, there is no translatable value for a quarterback who sits behind either passer. Your success in the NFL will be determined on the field, not by the tips you received from a more experienced, more talented peer. Too many players have played behind Brady and Manning before proving to be inadequate on the field to suggest that it has enough of an impact to be meaningful.

Bill O'Brien should know that. O'Brien had not one, but two quarterbacks who played behind Brady on his roster last year. He benched both at different times before Ryan Mallett played his best football for the Ravens and Brian Hoyer spectacularly imploded in the playoffs.

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From the same game, just a few minutes of game time later in the third quarter, Osweiler made a similarly poor decision. Despite being in field goal range with that 14-point lead intact, Osweiler forced a pass to a covered Emmanuel Sanders down the left sideline. Forcing the ball to a covered receiver is something Osweiler did regularly for the Broncos. He relied on his receivers to adjust and force their way to the ball when it was in the air. While this is a method that will work with DeAndre Hopkins, it relies too much on the quality of the receiver to consistently make plays.

Osweiler's decision on this play was a bad one, but it was made worse by his accuracy. This was a recurring issue when Osweiler forced the ball to his receivers. Sanders has no chance of getting to this ball before Jason Verrett. He would have to have beaten the cornerback decisively to be that far infield. A good throw on this play would have arrived with more velocity, arced over the defensive back and leading Sanders towards the back pylon. Osweiler doesn't have that kind of precision throwing to any level of the field.

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There is a consistent streak of panic in everything that Osweiler does. He isn't capable of holding the ball to throw from tight pockets, so instead he rushes to release the ball. When he does show off good movement in the pocket, it is more decisive than subtle to reset. Most concerning is how oblivious he is to what the defense is doing. Even when he tries to come off his first read and make throws to second options, he isn't seeing the field clearly. On this play from Week 14 against the Oakland Raiders, Osweiler expects to find space over the middle of the field because the underneath linebacker followed his eyes. He throws the ball blindly so it arrives perfectly for safety Charles Woodson, who had rotated down when the ball was snapped.

This throw came on third down, during the first quarter when the Broncos were in field goal range. Osweiler had plenty of time in the pocket. He didn't need to force this pass.

If you wanted to sell Osweiler's potential moving forward, you would point to these plays as rookie errors, errors that would disappear the more he played. That wasn't how Osweiler's season went though. Discounting his first game of the year because he entered as a backup, Osweiler's worst display of the year came against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15. He had been playing for more than a month by that point, yet the errors multiplied. Osweiler threw four interceptable passes in that game. All four came in the second half, even though the Broncos had entered halftime with a 14-point lead.

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Early in the fourth quarter, with that 14-point lead intact, Osweiler faces a second-and-20 deep in Broncos territory. He is going to make a good decision on this play, but he is required to execute a timing route with Emmanuel Sanders. Osweiler needs to hit Sanders as soon as the receiver turns around at the top of his deep curl route. Sanders beats Ross Cockrell badly, so badly that the defensive back falls down as he tries to accelerate with him back towards the quarterback. If Sanders hadn't beaten him so badly, Cockrell likely would have been able to catch an easy interception. Osweiler's pass arrived way off target.

His timing wasn't actually that bad on this throw, but asking him to make that throw on time while pressure was closing in the pocket was too much for him. With his long arms and often elongated release, Osweiler is prone to making this type of throw. The ball will slip out of his hand aimlessly, rather than accurately delivered to his intended target. That is extremely problematic against NFL defensive backs.

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On this play early in the fourth quarter, the Broncos and Steelers are tied. Osweiler is deep in his own territory, facing a crucial third-and-5. He needs to make a play here. He needs to stem the momentum of the Steelers and create a first down for his offense. The Steelers show a blitz at the snap but drop out of it immediately. Osweiler not only has time in the pocket, but he has space to move his feet and adjust his upper body. He tries to slide away from the right side of his offensive line, where there is some potential pressure arriving. While doing that he brings his eyes from the middle of the field to the right side of the offense.

This is disastrous.

As soon as Osweiler tries to move his feet and reset his eyes, his mechanics completely collapse. He doesn't have the subtlety in his feet to comfortably reset and deliver the ball. Instead he throws the ball with his heels in the ground, not fully stepping into the throw. Predictably, his pass floats off target. Robert Golden undercuts Andre Caldwell's route with ease. The pass is so slow that Golden has time to catch the ball in stride. He drops it, so the interception never happens. Had he caught it, Golden would have had a chance to walk in a touchdown.

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Not to worry. Osweiler eventually threw the Steelers into the lead with an ill-advised decision deep in Broncos territory.

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He had a chance to atone for that mistake. He couldn't, but he did give us another example of how well he can fit the ball into safeties in double-coverage over the middle of the field.



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Peyton Manning threw 17 interceptions in nine games before being benched for Osweiler. When it came down to deciding who to start in the playoffs, it wasn't about Manning's resumé versus Osweiler's. It wasn't about his experience or the storylines that Gary Kubiak and John Elway would face with Manning on the bench. It was that Manning was the better option. For as much as the Broncos didn't want to admit it at the time, that was an indictment of Osweiler when they benched him in Week 17. He deserved to be benched, and he didn't deserve the huge contract he just signed in free agency.

Bill O'Brien likes players who look like quarterbacks. Tall guys with big arms or guys who are perceived as smart with winning resumés. He doesn't look for players who can play like quarterbacks. He wants the manufactured talent show winner, not a true artist at the position.