One of my pals was asking me which team he should pick to win in his survivor pool. I thought about the Steelers over the Browns first and then the Bills over the Jets next. The third team I thought of? The Patriots over the Chiefs.

I know, I know. How does a Chiefs blogger say that?

There are a few reasons that a Chiefs win would be an incredible upset. Here are a few:

The point spread

Look, I’m hoping for a Chiefs win but all three of those teams I mentioned are 9-point favorites over their opponent, including the Patriots over the Chiefs. That’s the biggest line of the week (you can see all the Week 1 lines here).

Tom Brady (almost) unbeatable at home

That’s just one thing that is going against the Chiefs, not that the betting line actually means anything. The other thing is this stat:

In Tom Brady's last 51 home games against AFC opponents he's 50-1. Lone loss was Week 17 in 2014 vs. Bills and he sat out the second half. — Ryan Hannable (@RyanHannable) December 23, 2016

My gosh. That’s completely ridiculous. I mean, I’m not even sure what to say. That’s one of the craziest stats I’ve seen of the Patriots dynasty.

The home team in the NFL opener

The NFL started doing this season opener where the defending champion hosts the first game on Thursday night in 2004. Since then, the home team has won every time except once: the Cowboys beat the Giants in 2012. (The next year, the defending champion Ravens played on the road due to a scheduling issue and lost the Broncos who hosted the game).

It’s not impossible but the season opener on the road against the defending champs might be the biggest challenge the Chiefs have faced under Andy Reid.