On the face of it, everything looks rosy for the Romania national side. They’re ranked seventh in the world and they sit top of their qualifying group for Euro 2016, having conceded only one goal in six games. If they beat Hungary away on Friday, they’d be a win from securing their place in France next summer.

The president of the Romanian Football Federation, Razvan Burleanu, has been happy to take credit for Romania’s rise, saying that he had a plan to take Romania into the world’s top 20, then the top 15, then the top 10, and merrily asserting that his country is ahead of schedule.

But that is not the full story, not by any means. “We used to have players at the biggest teams in Europe,” said the national team coach Anghel Iordanescu, a member of the coaching staff and a late substitute in the final when Steaua won the European Cup in 1986. “Now our teams are out of Europe earlier than they have been for 11 years and our players who are in the strong leagues are – with only a few exceptions – fringe players for small clubs. We are not seventh in the world.”

Quite how Romania have climbed to seventh in the world, in fact, is something of a mystery. In the past 15 years, the only tournament they’ve qualified for was Euro 2008, where they didn’t win a game and, although it was only a play-off defeat to Greece that cost them a place at the World Cup last year, they were a distant third in their group in qualifying for Euro 2012.

Burleanu’s advisor Andrei Vochin has tried to take credit for arranging tough friendlies to “take advantage of the system” but the 0-0 draw against Argentina last year – the only game that realistically falls into that category – was under Burleanu’s predecessor, Mircea Sandu. This year, Romania have played four games. They’ve drawn 0-0 away to Northern Ireland and beaten the Faroe Islands 1-0.

That, somehow, has earned them more ranking points (786.91) in 2015 than any nation in the world other than Wales (817.58), who have won in Israel and at home against Belgium. Chile, making the foolish mistake of playing more than two games and winning the Copa America, have picked up just 579.37, fewer than Slovakia, England, Albania, Portugal, Argentina, Austria and the Czech Republic.

Iordanescu has always projected a sense of world-weariness, but it’s hard to argue with his assessment. The captain Vlad Chiriches, sold by Tottenham to Napoli this summer, is probably their highest profile player, although he missed training on Wednesday with injury, and while there is healthy competition in the goalkeeping department – Fiorentina’s Ciprian Tatarusanu battling it out with Sunderland’s Costel Pantilimon while Silviu Lung Jnr, the son of Romania’s 1990 World Cup goalkeeper, is a promising third choice – elsewhere the cupboard is largely bare.

Lucian Sanmartean is a sumptuously gifted playmaker, one who recalls the football of a former age in his languid elegance, but he is 35 and playing in Saudi Arabia. The Ludgorets centre-forward Claudiu Keseru is 28 but has only played five internationals – although they have yielded four goals. The two holding midfielders, Ovidiu Hoban and Andrei Prepelita, are 61 years old between them but have just 15 caps – and play in Bulgaria and Israel.

Other than Chiriches, the only outfielders who play for clubs in Europe’s top five leagues are Rayo Vallecano’s 34-year-old left-back Razvan Rat and Stuttgart’s attacking midfielder Alexandru Maxim. The striker Ciprian Marica has been left out by Iordanescu after making just two substitute appearances since February. Having suffered a serious knee injury, Marica has made just four starts since the end of the 2013-14 season, a sorry decline for a 29-year-old who was once seen as one of the great hopes of European football.

A possible move from Konyaspor to PAOK fell through at the last minute but, with the Romanian window open until 7 September, a return to his homeland is still possible. His last international appearance ended in a red card in the 1-0 win over Greece in September last year. Iordanescu seemed strangely irritated to be asked about him, snapping: “This is about the fate of Romanian football, not the fate of Ciprian Marica.”

Fate recently has been rather kinder to country than to forward. The rivalry with Hungary – an underlying antipathy over the sovereignty of Transylvania led to clashes between Hungarian fans and Romanian police last year and the year before – should ensure a ferocious encounter in Budapest on Friday, but beyond that it’s a hugely significant game in terms of qualification. A win for Hungary would reawaken their hopes of qualifying automatically; a win for Romania and they’ll have one foot in France. But they’re still not the seventh best team in the world.