

Hey guys, first time poster, long time reader.

As I sit here in my cubicle anticipating Thursday's slate of games that should feature dozens of future sixers, I came across KramerSixers' fan post listing all the possible scenarios for next season's additions to the squad. I figured I could add on to his work and throw some numbers atcha. So here ya go.

Some assumptions:

Sixers remain in 1st lotto spot

Lakers remain in 2nd lotto spot

Kings remain in 7th lotto spot - Although I anticipate them dropping to 6th =)

The top 5 picks are:

1. Ben Simmons

2. Brandon Ingram

3. Dragan Bender

4. Kris Dunn

5. Jaylen Brown

To simplify, I kept it constant regardless of stock changes, team needs, etc. All understandable, I hope. However, I'm sure you'll debate my next two assumptions:

Likelihood Embiid is on the opening night roster- 50 %

Likelihood Saric is on the opening night roster- 75 %

These are both arbitrary but realisitc figures IMHO. Also, I DID THE WORK SO I PICK THE NUMBERS.

With the assistance of http://www.lotterybucket.com, these are the draft scenarios and probabilities*:

PHI 4th pick only Dunn 0.195 PHI 1st and 4th Simmons and Dunn 0.142 PHI 1st pick only Simmons 0.140 PHI 2nd and 4th Ingram and Dunn 0.123 PHI 2nd pick only Ingram 0.122 PHI 3rd and 4th Bender and Dunn 0.106 PHI 3rd pick only Bender 0.101 PHI 4th and 5th Dunn and Brown 0.089 PHI 3rd and 5th Bender and Brown 0.012

If you weren't already nervous about lottery night, this should do it. The most likely outcome is the worst case scenario, and the second most likely outcome is the best case scenario.

But, there is over a 50% chance we land either Simmons or Ingram.

Perhaps the most interesting thing I gleaned from this is the likelihood we sit at 4 come draft night (with or without the Laker's pick conveying). There is roughly a 65% this happens, which means we might need to pay more attention to that tier of prospects, as ugly as some of us think it is. The most likely future Sixer in this class is one of Dunn, Brown, Bender, etc.

*I'm aware this adds up to 1.037. I believe I overcalculated some of the multi-pick scenarios. It gets tricky with the SAC pick swap (not complaining). My boss walks in every 2 minutes so I'm a little crunched for time. This should suffice. I'm sure the more educated readers will correct me in the comments below.

With Embiid and Saric factoring in, these are the probabilities:

7.32% Dunn, Embiid, Saric 7.32% Dunn, Saric 5.33% Simmons, Dunn, Embiid, Saric 5.33% Simmons, Dunn, Saric 5.25% Simmons, Embiid, Saric 5.25% Simmons, Saric 4.63% Ingram, Dunn, Embiid, Saric 4.63% Ingram, Dunn, Saric 4.59% Ingram, Embiid, Saric 4.59% Ingram, Saric 3.98% Bender, Dunn, Embiid, Saric 3.98% Bender, Dunn, Saric 3.78% Bender, Embiid, Saric 3.78% Bender, Saric 3.32% Dunn, Brown, Embiid, Saric 3.32% Dunn, Brown, Saric 2.44% Dunn, Embiid 2.44% Dunn only 1.78% Simmons, Dunn, Embiid 1.78% Simmons, Dunn 1.75% Simmons, Embiid 1.75% Simmons only 1.54% Ingram, Dunn, Embiid 1.54% Ingram, Dunn 1.53% Ingram, Embiid 1.53% Ingram only 1.33% Bender, Dunn, Embiid 1.33% Bender, Dunn 1.26% Bender, Embiid 1.26% Bender only 1.11% Dunn, Brown, Embiid 1.11% Dunn, Brown 0.46% Bender, Brown, Embiid, Saric 0.46% Bender, Brown, Saric 0.15% Bender, Brown, Embiid 0.15% Bender, Brown

In other words, philly sports radio has a 1.26 % chance to run Hinkie out of town before the season begins. And if you're like me, there's an 11% at the best case scenario- 4 new players, including Simmons/Ingram, tipping off opening night at the Wells Fargo. Like I mentioned above, these numbers are off. However, I'm fairly confident the order of the possible scenarios is accurate.

Obviously, draft day trades (gasp!) haven't been considered, but aren't out of the question. Also, this post was only meant to show possible additions to the core of our franchise. The MIA and OKC picks as well as possible free agent additions raise both the floor and ceiling of what this offseason can bring.

As the great Andy Dufresne once said, "Remember, Process-followers. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies."

I will be hoping this fanpost finds you, and finds you well.