Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Walker appears to have a small lead, but he's had one before. More troubling is that he hasn't been above 48 percent in an average since the spring. He should probably be considered the favorite, but he should be very, very worried.

10/28/14 -- Burke and Walker are knotted up at 47 percent. This could take days to sort out.

10/19/14 -- Walker has generally led in the polls, but Burke has hung tough. This race is anybody's ballgame as we enter the closing weeks.

----------Race Preview----------

Wisconsin has a long history of electing progressive politicians, first from the Republican Party, later from the Democratic Party. Robert La Follette and his sons were the typical mold for a Wisconsin governor for most of the 20th century. But during the Great Depression progressives swung toward the Democrats nationally; the state Republican Party became more conservative, and the state Democratic Party began to grow.

During the mid-20th century, Wisconsin favored liberal Democrats for its governors, including the famed Gaylord Nelson and Patrick Lucey. But in the late 1900s, it became a laboratory for conservative politics under Tommy Thompson. The pendulum swung back in 2002, when the state elected Jim Doyle governor.

Doyle was never extremely popular, and in 2010 he opted not to run for re-election. Voters elected Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, a Republican, to succeed Doyle. Walker proceeded to pursue a solidly conservative agenda, resulting in a series of attempts to weaken his governorship. First, progressives attempted to defeat a conservative Supreme Court justice. Then, they attempted to recall enough state senators to capture that body. Finally, they attempted to recall Walker himself. However, these efforts failed.

Given this, we’d expect to see Walker in relatively solid shape. But this doesn’t seem to be the case. He maintains a narrow lead over Madison School Board member Mary Burke.