Republicans ran Todd Akin for a seat that was ripe for the taking. Senate elections: 8 things to watch

At the beginning of the year, the math looked grim for Senate Democrats. The party had to defend 23 of the 33 seats up for election, and more than a few of them in states that aren’t friendly to the national party.

Then came Richard Mourdock. And Todd Akin. And a few GOP retirements that put Republican-held seats in harm’s way.


As a result, Democrats are in a better position than anyone could have imagined on election eve — and poised to hold their Senate majority.

Here are eight things to watch in the Senate on Election Day:

A more polarized Senate

It’s hard to believe, but it’s a very real possibility: The Senate could become even more polarized.

Democrats could elect a collection of liberals that makes progressive hearts flutter. Among them: Reps. Mazie Hirono of Hawaii and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, and Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown leads in his reelection bid.

On the GOP side, Ted Cruz, a prominent conservative voice, is the all-but-certain next senator from Texas. He could be joined by Richard Mourdock, who outflanked GOP Sen. Dick Lugar in the primary to win the Indiana Republican Senate nomination, and Deb Fischer, a conservative state senator who has a slight edge over Bob Kerrey in Nebraska.

At the same time, the ideological center of the Senate continued to wither away this year with the loss of Lugar and the retirements of Nebraska Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson, Maine GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe, Connecticut independent Sen. Joe Lieberman and Virginia Democratic Sen. Jim Webb.

The clock

By 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Timetime, polls will be closed in states hosting three of the most competitive Senate races in the nation: Indiana, Ohio and Virginia.

The races should give a good indication of the direction political winds are blowing. And if Republicans aren’t winning at least one of these, their chances of capturing the Senate are dim.

The Obama effect

President Barack Obama is likely to play a key role in determining which party wins the Senate majority, but his effect differs from state to state.

In red states such as Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota and Nebraska — not to mention West Virginia — the president is no asset. Democratic nominees are getting pounded for their ties to the president.

But in places like solidly Democratic Massachusetts, where Warren will get a boost against GOP Sen. Scott Brown from a blowout Obama win, or swing state Nevada, where the president’s ground game could pull Shelley Berkley over the finish line, Democratic nominees can’t embrace the president tightly enough.

The great GOP Senate giveaway

If Republicans fall short of winning a majority on Election Day, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves.

With Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill poised for victory in Missouri and the possibility of a Democratic win in Indiana, it raises the prospect that the GOP will have all but given away four Senate seats — maybe even five — over the course of the past two election cycles by nominating unelectable candidates in seats that were ripe for the taking.

The reason, of course, is the inability to achieve an armistice in the ongoing primary wars between the party establishment and grass-roots conservatives.

The nostalgia candidates

Three former governors — and onetime political giants in their home states — are attempting comebacks this year: Nebraska Democrat Kerrey, Virginia Republican George Allen and Wisconsin Republican Tommy Thompson.

At the height of their popularity, all drew mention for the national ticket. But they’ve struggled at times with the changed political world they encountered upon their returns. Kerrey, who’s seeking a second tour in the Senate, is the longest shot of the three though he’s closed fast on Fischer.

A great year for female candidates

Two of the Senate’s 17 women are retiring this year, but their ranks could still grow thanks to a record number of female Senate candidates.

Four Senate races — California, Hawaii, New Mexico and New York — feature female Democratic and Republican nominees.

There are 18 female nominees in all, 12 Democrats and 6 Republicans, and more competitive female Democratic Senate nominees this year than ever before — candidates such as Baldwin, Berkley, Hirono, Warren and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota.

Republicans can also point to a handful of high-profile nominees, among them Fischer, Heather Wilson in New Mexico and Linda Lingle in Hawaii.

Recount bait

Depending on who’s counting, there are as many as nine toss-up Senate races this year, raising the odds that one or more of them will be decided by a razor-thin margin and the outcome unclear on election night. Best bets for a photo finish: Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Virginia or Wisconsin.

Harry Reid’s evening

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has more at stake Tuesday than just his leadership post — he probably has more skin in more games than almost anyone else.

His home state of Nevada is a key presidential battleground. He’s made headlines with his slashing criticism of Mitt Romney. Then there is the matter of his Democratic Senate majority.

Locally, he has a hand in the Senate race, where he’s aiming to crank up his machine to lift Berkley to victory over his GOP colleague Sen. Dean Heller. He’s even waded into Nevada House races by holding a conference call in which he attacked GOP nominee Danny Tarkanian and said his election would be “embarrassing” to the state.