Don’t listen to Bill Parcells, who famously said “You are what your record says you are.” The 3-4 San Diego Chargers are not cooperating with that theory. Those four losses currently have Mike McCoy’s team sitting at the bottom of the AFC West standings. After beating the Falcons 33-30 on the road, the Chargers look like the best team in the division.

Thanks to four heart-breaking losses, San Diego is a 6-1 team masquerading as a mediocre ball club. Statistics have shown that an NFL team’s record in close games has little to no predictive value, and teams that suffer an unusually high number of close losses can expect some regression to the mean.

Related A brief history of the Chargers blowing games in the fourth quarter under Mike McCoy

That regression has finally arrived for the Chargers, who knocked off the Broncos and Falcons in one-possession games in back-to-back weeks. The reversal of fortune is coming at a convenient time, with San Diego’s schedule getting a heck of a lot easier after a trip to Denver next week. After taking on the Broncos on Oct. 30, the Chargers have only three teams with winning records (Houston, Oakland and Kansas City) left on their 2016 slate.

The rest of the division is due for the bad kind of regression over these next two months. The Raiders are 5-2 but have the point differential (+6) of a .500 team and have played a soft schedule. The 4-2 Chiefs’ point differential is better than Oakland’s but still eight points worse than San Diego’s. In Denver, Trevor Siemian has looked more like a seventh-round pick of late, and the Chargers hold a tie-breaker over the defending West champs having beaten them in Week 6.

Going beyond the numbers, the Chargers look like the best team in the division.

Philip Rivers and the offense still drive this team. Only the Falcons have scored more points this season and only three quarterbacks are averaging more yards per attempt than the 34-year-old Rivers. Keep in mind, he’s doing this with a suspect line and ineffective running game while missing his No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen. How Rivers isn’t getting serious MVP buzz is beyond me.

Don’t sleep on this defense, which is quietly playing at a high level. The Bolts rank 12th in defensive DVOA and look even better now that third overall pick Joey Bosa has been inserted into the lineup. In just under a month’s time, the Ohio State product has already established himself as one of the league’s most disruptive defensive ends.

Joey Bosa has 20 pressures this season. Only 23 edge rushers have more. Bosa has only played in 3 games. — Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 24, 2016

The defense was doing just fine before Bosa’s arrival thanks to positive contributions from Melvin Ingram, Brandon Mebane, Casey Heyward and Denzel Perryman, who came up with a big fourth-quarter interception and made the pivotal fourth-down stop in overtime against the Falcons. The offense gets all of the attention, but the Chargers have some intriguing pieces on the other side of the ball.

Injuries are still the main concern for this team, as they have been for the last three seasons. A lot of talent is stuck on the team’s injured reserve list, including Allen, Danny Woodhead, Jason Verrett and Manti Te’o. The Chargers’ depth will be tested down the stretch of a long season.

And with four losses already on the board, San Diego’s margin for error is basically non-existent. A 9-7 record may not be good enough to win the AFC West, so the Chargers can really only afford to lose two more games if they are going to make it to the postseason.

A second win against Denver will significantly improve their chances of making the postseason. It’s the team’s final road game within the division and could be the last time San Diego isn’t favored over an opponent for the rest of 2016.

Just two weeks ago, the Chargers were sitting at 1-4 with two tough games on the upcoming schedule. Two season-saving wins later, San Diego looks like one of the better teams in the AFC regardless of its mediocre record.