Live Updates: Crossing out guys as they fall.

UPDATED VERSION 4.5 (4/26/2018): POST TRADE UPDATE:

Mock Draft:

Round First Choice Second Choice Third Choice Fourth Choice Fifth Choice 1 (32) Derrius Guice (RB) Justin Reid (S) Courtland Sutton (WR) Ronald Jones (RB) Leighton Vander Esch (LB) *2 (52) Justin Reid (S) Courtland Sutton (WR) Ronald Jones (RB) Chukwuma Okorafor (OT) James Daniels (C) *4 (125) Kyle Lauletta (QB) Nyheim Hines (RB) Tim Settle (DT) Rasheem Green (DE) Kemoko Turay (TE) 4 (130) Nyheim Hines (RB) Jaylen Samuels (TE) Tim Settle (DT) Rasheem Green (DE) Kemoko Turay (TE) 4 (132) Nyheim Hines (RB) Hayden Hurst (TE) Jaylen Samuels (TE) Tim Settle (DT) Rasheem Green (DE) 5 (169) Durham Smythe (TE) Chris Herndon (TE) Jaylen Samuels (TE) Kemoko Turay (DE) Jalyn Holmes (DE) 6 (206) Chris Herndon (TE) Daurice Fountain (WR) Jeremy Reaves (S) Dalton Schultz (TE) Tyquan Lewis (DE) 7 (250) PJ Hall (DT) Tony Adams (C) Dalton Schultz (TE) Bilal Nichols (DT) Chase Edmunds (RB) UDFA Tremon Smith (CB) Jermaine Carter Jr (LB) Jordan Mailata (OT) David Wells (TE) Jamil Demby (G)

Top Ten at 52:

Name Position Justin Reid S Courtland Sutton WR Ronald Jones RB Chukwuma Okorafor OT James Daniels C Connor Williams OT Uchenna Nwosu DE Donte Jackson CB Ronnie Harrison S Darius Leonard LB

UPDATED VERSION 4.0 (4/25/2018): Final Pre-Draft Update (Unless they make some trades). I have added the latest and the most detailed information from this BGN post: NFL Draft 2018: List of every known prospect the Eagles have shown interest in. The total Player input is up to 170 and BLG has added in a ton of reports that has shift the matrix with players already included. After the draft I will do an update to evaluate how my Spreadsheet did.

Interest Matrix:

Early Mid Late UDFA TOTAL QB 1 4 1 1 7 RB 15 12 6 4 37 OT 16 5 2 9 32 G 4 0 1 8 13 C 0 7 5 1 13 WR 11 6 10 2 29 TE 4 6 17 7 34 FB 0 0 2 2 4 DT 3 12 9 4 28 DE 3 11 8 1 23 LB 11 8 7 10 36 CB 11 6 4 9 30 S 12 5 8 0 25 K 0 0 1 0 1 P 0 0 0 2 2 LS 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 91 82 81 60

Mock Draft:

Round First Choice Second Choice Third Choice Fourth Choice Fifth Choice 1 Derrius Guice (RB) Justin Reid (S) Courtland Sutton (WR) Ronald Jones (RB) Leighton Vander Esch (LB) 4 Kyle Lauletta (QB) Nyheim Hines (RB) Hayden Hurst (TE) Jaylen Samuels (TE) Tim Settle (DT) 4 Nyheim Hines (RB) Hayden Hurst (TE) Jaylen Samuels (TE) Tim Settle (DT) Rasheem Green (DE) 5 Durham Smythe (TE) Chris Herndon (TE) Jaylen Samuels (TE) Kemoko Turay (DE) Jalyn Holmes (DE) 6 Chris Herndon (TE) Daurice Fountain (WR) Jeremy Reaves (S) Dalton Schultz (TE) Tyquan Lewis (DE) 7 PJ Hall (DT) Tony Adams (C) Dalton Schultz (TE) Bilal Nichols (DT) Chase Edmunds (RB) UDFA Tremon Smith (CB) Jermaine Carter Jr (LB) Jordan Mailata (OT) David Wells (TE) Jamil Demby (G)

First Round Top 10:

Name Position Derrius Guice RB Justin Reid S Courtland Sutton WR Ronald Jones RB Leighton Vander Esch LB Jaire Alexander CB Chukwuma Okorafor OT Rashaan Evans LB Connor Williams OT Mike Hughes CB

I have added in a top ten list for reference during the draft tomorrow. No big surprises here beside the lack of OT on the list.

Based on the latest iteration it is clear that the Eagles are going to cut Carson and pick up Kyle Lauletta as the QB of the future! Kidding, but it is odd how much work has gone into a QB when they have the best 2 in the league on the team already. I don't really expect the Eagles to draft Lauletta unless Foles is dealt for picks and Lauletta falls.

The Eagles have shown a lot of interest to Early round Offensive Tackles and Running Backs. After the top 2, S, LB, WR, and CB are right there. I would say this is pretty accurate to what Mock Drafts have said. The one surprise is the lack of Tight End.

While the Birds have shown a lot of interest in the position, they have not shown much interest in any particular player. I would see this as a sign that they will take a tackle if one of the top guys falls, or if one of the second tier guys is available in the Second after a trade back, but they don't really expect it. If it happens, at least they have done their homework to be familiar with the players.

There is a lot more interest in DE and DTs in the mid to later rounds than in the past, Particularly with DE. I wonder if interest picked up after cutting Vinny Curry.

An RB seems likely in the 4th based on the interest, but it is looking more likely that the Eagles will be looking deeper in the draft for their TE

UPDATED VERSION 3.0 (4/15/2018): Quick update. I added a bunch of visit information based on this article from NJ.com. There is now ~130 prospects in Spreadsheet.

Interest Matrix:

Early Mid Late UDFA TOTAL QB 1 0 1 1 3 RB 9 10 5 2 26 OT 13 4 2 1 20 G 1 0 1 7 9 C 0 5 5 0 10 WR 11 5 9 1 26 TE 2 3 11 4 20 FB 0 0 2 2 4 DT 2 6 5 2 15 DE 1 7 5 1 14 LB 10 8 3 5 26 CB 5 6 4 8 23 S 8 5 6 0 19 K 0 0 1 0 1 P 0 0 0 2 2 LS 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 63 59 60 36

Mock Draft:

Round First Choice Second Choice Third Choice Fourth Choice Fifth Choice 1 Derrius Guice (RB) Courtland Sutton (WR) Leighton Vander Esch (LB) Chukwuma Okorafor (OT) Rashaan Evans (LB) 4 Hayden Hurst (TE) Jaylen Samuels (TE) Kalen Ballage (RB) Mark Walton (RB) Nyheim Hines (RB) 4 Jaylen Samuels (TE) Kalen Ballage (RB) Mark Walton (RB) Nyheim Hines (RB) Josh Adams (RB) 5 Chris Herndon (TE) Durham Smythe (TE) Brandon Parker (OT) Jaylen Samuels (TE) Troy Fumagalli (TE) 6 Daurice Fountain (WR) Jeremy Reaves (S) Brandon Parker (OT) Troy Fumagalli (TE) Dalton Schultz (TE) 7 PJ Hall (DT) Tony Adams (C) Dalton Schultz (TE) Javon Wims (WR) Braxton Berrios (WR) UDFA Tremon Smith (CB) Matthew Gono (G) Jermaine Carter Jr (LB) David Wells (TE) Tony Adams (C)

Derrius Guice is back after all of the latest news updates this past week. He is the top pick but OT, WR, and LB are ranked above RB based on positional interest. Seems like a run to the podium if he is there kind of pick but otherwise they will likely not pick an RB.

It seems like they will look to add an RB and a TE in the 4th or 5th. It looks like there is not a lot of interest in mid round TEs yet there are some borderline late round guys who could sneak in such as Jaylen Samuels. I do not expect Hayden Hurst will be available, he is only in the 4th because CBS rated him at 186 and threw off the average. I am not here to evaluate players, only the interest that the Eagles have.

UPDATED VERSION 2.0 (4/11/2018): I have updated the spreadsheet to include a few new visits. Additionally, I have redone the Draft Ranking as an average of each prospects Rank from the CBS Sports Big Board and the Tuls Big Board from NDT Scouting, along with the previously used DraftTek Big Board. These updates created a bit of a shift in the Interest Matrix and the Mock Draft Selections:

Interest Matrix:

Early Mid Late UDFA TOTAL QB 1 0 0 0 1 RB 5 8 3 1 17 OT 10 3 2 0 15 G 1 0 0 5 6 C 0 4 5 0 9 WR 9 1 7 0 17 TE 1 0 9 3 13 FB 0 0 2 2 4 DT 0 6 5 1 12 DE 0 2 2 1 5 LB 10 6 1 5 22 CB 4 6 2 8 20 S 8 1 6 0 15 K 0 0 1 0 1 P 0 0 0 2 2 LS 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 49 37 45 28



Top 10:

Name Position Round Range Courtland Sutton WR Early Leighton Vander Esch LB Early Rashaan Evans LB Early Tremon Smith CB UDFA Chukwuma Okorafor OT Early Connor Williams OT Early Derrius Guice RB Early Donte Jackson CB Mid Justin Reid S Early

Mock Draft:

Pick First Choice Second Choice Third Choice Fourth Choice 1 (32) (Rank 2-62) Courtland Sutton (WR) Leighton Vander Esch (LB) Rashaan Evans (LB) C. Okorafor (OT) 4 (130) (Rank 100-160) Mark Walton (RB) Nyheim Hines (RB) Akrum Wadley (RB) Duke Dawson (CB) 4 (132) (Rank 102-162) Nyheim Hines (RB) Akrum Wadley (RB) Duke Dawson (CB) Andrew Brown (DT) 5 (169) (Rank 139-199) Chris Herndon (TE) Durham Smythe (TE) Brandon Parker (OT) Troy Fumagalli (TE) 6 (206) (Rank 176-236) Daurice Fountain (WR) Jeremy Reaves (S) Brandon Parker (OT) Troy Fumagalli (TE) 7 (250) (Rank 220-280) PJ Hall (DT) Tony Adams (C) Dalton Schultz (TE) Javon Wims (WR) UDFA (280+) Tremon Smith (CB) Jermaine Carter Jr (LB) Matthew Gono (G) Tony Adams (C)

Notes:

There has been a bit of a shift in priority based on the draft ranking changes and some new Official Visits. Courtland Sutton moved into relevance after an Official Visit and WR would now look like one of the priorities. Also moving up the board are Offensive Tackle and Safety. The updates have Also Pushed Guice out of the top 4.

It seems like RB is a dominant priority in the 4th, Obviously I do not expect them to use both picks on RBs. The system breaks down a bit because there hasn't been a lot of interest from the Eagles in players within striking range of the 4th round picks. There were no players with Official Visits or Workouts in that range. This is probably more of a discrepancy with the Rankings. I still would not mind if they picked up Hines.

Please see below for a full explanation and if you are interested in looking at my spreadsheet: Eagles 2018 Draft Interest Spreadsheet . I plan to update this a couple more times before the draft as we get the news all of the Official Visits in.

ORIGINAL POST:

Hey BGN Community, I am a long time reader/listener and a first time poster. I am not football expert in any way but I am a nerd so I decided to join to the draft discussion in a way I have not seen before and make a mock using data manipulation for all of the prospects the Eagles have been linked to (Official Visits, Combine Meetings, Pro Days, East-West Shrine, etc). I would like to emphasize that this exercise was for fun and is still a bit rough but maybe we can learn a bit about positions and player that the Eagles value in this years draft as opposed to who the draft experts suspect they are interested in and who we as fans want them to pick. If you would like to see my spreadsheet for the detailed calculations you can take a look here: Eagles 2018 Draft Interest Spreadsheet

I found a list of ~80 players the Eagles have shown interest in some form from WalterFootball.com and gave them a draft rating from Drafttek.com (Only because they have a 400 player big board). Then I created an weighted interest grade (Official Visit is worth 4 points, Private Workouts are 2, and Pro Days/Combine/etc. are worth 1). From this I was able to produce the below matrix that illustrates where the Eagles Focus is in the Draft. The Values here are a sum of the total "Interest" points.

Interest Matrix Early Mid Late UDFA TOTAL QB 1 0 0 0 1 RB 6 8 2 1 17 OT 6 3 2 0 11 G 1 0 0 5 6 C 0 4 2 3 9 WR 5 2 1 5 13 TE 1 1 8 3 13 FB 0 0 2 2 4 DT 1 5 6 0 12 DE 1 1 2 1 5 LB 11 5 0 6 22 CB 4 6 2 8 20 S 4 2 1 0 7 K 0 0 1 0 1 P 0 0 0 0 0 LS 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 41 37 29 34

Here are some thoughts on the results:

It looks like the the Eagles are valuing the LB position with the 32nd pick more that we generally suspect. They also have some interest in mid round guys if the miss out on the top prospects like Rashaan Evens and Leighton Vander Esch.

OT is also high early but not as high as I would expect based on the eventual need to replace Jason Peters. Also there is not a whole lot of interest in later round tackles. Also of note is the Early guy that they have looked paid the closest attention to is Chukwuma Okorafor (trade back?)

It looks like the Eagles may be looking at RB with one of the 4th round picks if they do not snag a guy like Guice in the first.

It appears they are looking mainly in the later rounds for a Tight End. I wouldn't think the recent signing of Rodgers will impact that too much.

From this matrix I created a composite score for each player which also attempts to factor in the interest level the team has at their position in their range of the draft and their overall draft ranking from DraftTek. From this Composite score we can look at the players that the Eagles are most interested in:





Name Position Round Range Leighton Vander Esch LB Early Derrius Guice RB Early Rashaan Evans LB Early Dante Jackson CB Mid Tremon Smith CB UDFA Chukwuma Okorafor OT Early Rashaad Penny RB Mid Chris Herndon TE Late Mike Hughes CB Early Darius Leonard LB Mid





And produce a mock draft (with alternates):





Mock Draft First Choice Second Choice Third Choice Fourth Choice 1 (32) (Rank 2-62) Leighton Vander Esch (LB) Derrius Guice (RB) Rashaan Evans (LB) Chukwuma Okorafor 4 (130) (Rank 100-160) Rashaad Penny (RB) James Daniels (C) Durham Smythe (TE) Brandon Parker (OT) 4 (132) (Rank 102-162) James Daniels (C) Durham Smythe (TE) Brandon Parker (OT) Mark Walton (RB) 5 (169) (Rank 139-199) Chris Herndon (TE) Durham Smythe (TE) Bo Scarbrough (RB) Deadrin Senat (DT) 6 (206) (Rank 176-236) PJ Hall (DT) Christian LaCouture (DT) Jamarco Jones (OT) Dimitri Flowers (FB) 7 (250) (Rank 220-300) Dalton Schultz (TE) Tracy Sprinkle (DT) Kemoko Turay (DE) Martinas Rankin (OT) UDFA (300+) Tremon Smith (CB) Jermaine Carter Jr (LB) Daurice Fountain (WR) Matthew Gono (G)

This draft obviously does not include other teams so some picks here are likely to be gone by the time the birds pick. To avoid this and over-drafting players I have limited the choices to a range of +/-30 in the rankings, and if the first choice showed up at multiple picks I removed it the second time around since we can assume they are gone by then.

Overall this is probably meaningless but maybe we can get a better idea of what the Eagles want to do in this draft by taking a closer look at the evidence that they have presented us. I hope someone else finds this interesting too. And of course not to rain on everyone's parade but Dallas has won 2(!) playoff games since their last Superbowl win and the Eagles haven't won a single game since theirs, so let's not get too cocky.