Categories: House races Report: Walsh promised $3.5M to switch Money changes everything, even for tea party purist Joe Walsh. The Daily Herald reports a promise of heavyweight fundraising from the speaker for Walsh's move back into his considerably more Democratic 8th Congressional District. Walsh — lured by the thought of an easier primary and the promise, according to top Illinois GOP officials who requested anonymity and influential Barrington Republican Jack Roeser, of $3.5 million in general election fundraising help from House Speaker John Boehner — will now make a bid in the recently drawn 8th District, roughly centered in Schaumburg and including Addison, Elk Grove, Hanover and Wheeling townships. At the conclusion of the third quarter, Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi had $635,996 on hand and his primary opponent Tammy Duckworth had $364,295. UPDATED @ 3:16 PM: When asked directly by POLITICO whether the report was true, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Paul Lindsay did not deny it. “Congressman Walsh gives Republicans the best opportunity to win the 8th District, and we’re excited about his candidacy. We anticipate he will enroll in the NRCC’s Patriot Program, which is based on need plus merit," he said. UPDATED @ 4:36 PM: A spokesman for Speaker Boehner called the report "not true." "The Speaker has not pledged financial support to Congressman Walsh," said Boehner spokesman Cory Fritz. Tags: Illinois,

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Categories: Senate races A policy of intervention My story on the mothership this morning explains how the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has embraced a policy of intervention this cycle, while their counterparts at the National Republican Senatorial Committee have kept their distance from primaries in public. The question is whether that all-in strategy will pay dividends down the road — or whether the NRSC's hands off public approach is the safer route. One Connecticut Senate candidate feels spurned by the process, but is embracing the outsider roll. Susan Bysiewicz, a former Connecticut secretary of state elected three times who is also running for Senate, suggested Murray is only backing [Rep. Chris] Murphy because he’s already in the Beltway.



“She knows him because he’s in Washington. She may not have her finger on the pulse of voters in our state and around the country that are upset at the grave dysfunction and gridlock in Washington,” she said Thursday. “This is a year where the special interests in Washington do not matter to people.” Tags: DSCC,

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Categories: House races Walsh announces run for a suburban Chicago-based seat Illinois Rep. Joe Walsh, the controversial and bombastic freshman Republican, appears finally to be done with his district shopping.



Walsh announced Thursday evening that he’s running for a suburban Chicago-based seat — a decision that came less than two months after initially announcing that he would be running against fellow GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren in another district.



He will have an uphill path: The 8th District seat that he’s settled on is Democratic-friendly, and both of Walsh’s prospective Democratic opponents, former Veterans Affairs Department official Tammy Duckworth and ex-state comptroller candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi, have established themselves as formidable fundraisers.



But running against Hultgren, Walsh likely realized, wouldn’t be any easier.



GOP officials in Washington say they were largely left in the dark about Walsh’s move, but many of them said privately that the Republican had damaged himself severely and wouldn’t have stacked up well against Hultgren — particularly after telling a local newspaper that he would “punch [Hultgren] in the face, figuratively speaking” and after a video emerged of Walsh becoming confrontational with his constituents.



Still, Walsh’s decision is a win for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has circumvented an ugly brawl between two members. post a comment

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Categories: House races Calif. Dems fundraise for Berman California House Democrats are lining up behind Rep. Howard Berman in his race against fellow Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman — and now they’re going to bat for him on the fundraising circuit. On Wednesday, 22 members of the delegation — all of whom endorsed Berman several weeks ago — will host a Capitol Hill fundraiser for Berman, according to an event invitation obtained by POLITICO. The list of hosts crosses the ideological spectrum, including liberals like Reps. Lynn Woolsey and Barbara Lee and more moderate members like Reps. Jim Costa and Dennis Cardoza. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who appears to be strongly leaning in Berman’s favor, isn’t listed on the invitation — but several of her top allies, including Reps. George Miller and Xavier Becerra are expected to attend. Berman has received the backing of more than two-thirds of the state’s Democratic delegation, while Sherman has picked up the public support of just two members: California Reps. Grace Napolitano and Judy Chu. Tags: California,

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Categories: House races Bob Turner’s lessons from the N.Y. special One of Bob Turner's main consultants, Steve Goldberg, offers lessons learned from the New York 9th Congressional District special in a memo obtained by POLITICO. The first takeaway -- Stay on message -- isn't all that groundbreaking, but the second offers a window into the campaign's thinking about how to handle tea party sentiment in a Democratic district. In essence, Goldberg, a New York based strategist who has worked for John McCain and Jon Huntsman, argues that Turner let it flow to him naturally without being defined by it. Lesson 2. Democrats tried to demonize Turner with the Tea Party, social issues and social security issues but they didn’t stick. He wasn’t going to let himself be pictured as a radical because he’s not a radical. He is a man of middle class values and the voters knew it. They, too, are middle class. The Turner campaign did not care and did not get caught up in where the anti-Obama feelings were coming from. They were respectful and willing recipients of all the anti-Obama sentiment. They knew that they had to harness that anger and channel that focus into votes for Turner. The Democrats tried to portray Turner as a white, male, non-caring conservative, Tea-Party radical who is disconnected from people. The voters in the district felt empowered that their vote meant something and they were making a statement. That is the critical lesson: the voters knew their vote mattered as should every vote in this upcoming election. We’re at a critical juncture in our history where we need a President in the tradition of an Andrew Jackson or a Teddy Roosevelt who has to recognize where we need to go as a country to properly lead us. The Republican candidate that is able to demonstrate that he or she has these leadership qualities will be our next president. The only way to achieve that outcry of support from the community is a simple, clear message that cuts through all the chatter and the noise and tells the voters in the district “your vote matters and you need to exercise it”. Goldberg's first lesson is after the jump. » Continue reading Bob Turner’s lessons from the N.Y. special Tags: Bob Turner,

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Categories: Senate races The best of four new Crossroads ads Of the four new Crossroads GPS Senate spots rolled out Thursday, the Ben Nelson commercial is the most biting, and in my judgment, the most effective. In addition to the cadence and the memorable voice of the narrator, it tells a clear story of what's likely to be the Democrat's greatest vulnerability: Trading favors in exchange for a critical vote. "He demanded a payoff ... accused of selling his vote ... cynical what's-in-it-for-me-type politics ... What's wrong with Washington," is the money line. It's the monkey on Nelson's back summarized in nine swift seconds. It's also the only one of the ads when the viewer does not hear from the Democrat in the cross hairs. In the spots against Sens. Claire McCaskill and Jon Tester, and Massachusetts candidate Elizabeth Warren, Crossroads lifts soundbites from each to paint them as a hypocrite. It's understood that the idea is to pit their own words against their actions, but a Democratic strategist involved in one of the races wonders why Crossroads would allow their foes to appear to validate their own points on camera. For instance, in the Missouri clip, McCaskill says, "All of us need to realize the debt is a real problem." The words are plastered across the screen. A casual observer doing laundry or on the treadmill may read that quickly and be left with the impression that McCaskill is ... serious about the debt problem. "It comes across like they're allowing [them] to defend [themselves]," observed the Democrat. Remember, most of the people who see these ads don't watch them as closely as we do. Tags: Crossroads Media,

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Categories: Senate races Oppo pre-empts Thomas Senate entry Bob Thomas's likely entry into the Indiana Senate race means trouble for Richard Mourdock's insurgent bid to upend Sen. Dick Lugar. A Howey Politics report signaling a move just after the New Year swiftly prompted a drop of oppo on Thomas. Documents provided to POLITICO show that Thomas, a wealthy auto dealer, has had an checkered voting history. Thomas did not vote in primary elections in 2008 and 2011and failed to cast a ballot in the 2010 general. Going back further, he appeared to be more inclined to skip primary votes. In the past decade, he showed up just once to participate in a primary — and that was in 2010 when he was running for Congress. An email to Thomas' campaign account was not returned. Mourdock's team should see Thomas as a real threat. His entry likely divides the anti-Lugar vote, squashing the best chance at bringing down the six-term GOP incumbent. Tags: Indiana post a comment

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Categories: Senate races Herald poll puts Warren up 7 A second poll in as many weeks shows Elizabeth Warren with a lead over Sen. Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race. The University of Massachusetts-Lowell/Boston Herald delivers Warren a 7-percentage point spread, 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 5 points and the total includes "leaners." The Herald details Warren's movement: The poll of 505 registered Massachusetts voters was conducted for UMass-Lowell by Princeton Survey Research from Dec. 1 to Dec. 6, and shows Warren with her largest lead yet in the campaign. A UMass-Lowell/Boston Herald poll taken in late September showed Brown ahead by a 41 percent -38 percent margin, so the new poll represents a 10-point swing in Warren’s favor in less than two months. Last week a UMass-Amherst poll put Warren up 4 points over Brown, 43 percent to 39 percent. The troubling trendline for Brown: He is well under the 50 percent marker and appears to be slipping behind Warren, less than three months after her official entry into the race. Republicans argue Warren's bump is to be expected after dropping $1.5 million onto the airwaves with a well-produced sunny bio spot. In addition, Brown has taken some body blows as a result of the League of Conservation Voters advertising campaign. But it's not as if Warren isn't taking her licks as well: Crossroads GPS has been on the air linking her to the "Occupy Wall Street" movement. Nonetheless, a GOP strategist familiar with the campaign promises there's no reason to panic. "There was always going to be a Democrat, any Democrat, running within single digits of Brown. That's the nature of the state," said the operative. "The upside is that Scott has a lot of resources, the right record and remains a popular figure, even with independents." All in all, this is the success story of the off-year for Democrats: Evidence that they have a real shot at stealing a seat away in a cycle that almost everyone thinks will result in a net loss of seats for the party. This race is promising to produce a photo finish, but Warren is out in front a few legs ahead in the first lap. Tags: Elizabeth Warren,

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Categories: Governors' races The Kaine-Allen debate The first general election Senate debate of the cycle is today in Richmond, between Virginia titans George Allen and Tim Kaine. I'll be traveling there to take in the 90-minute face-off live beginning at 1:30 p.m. It will also be live-streamed by the Times-Dispatch HERE. Going in, both campaigns have signaled that the debate could turn into a proxy battle over the Obama and Bush administrations. From my preview piece: Since announcing his candidacy in April, Kaine has worked to shed the trappings of Washington, fashioning himself as a fiscally responsible, independent leader who reaches for compromise. Allen’s team views Wednesday afternoon’s debate in Richmond as a chance to remind voters that for the past 2½ years, Kaine has been a leading partisan cheerleader for Obama’s unpopular policy decisions. Kaine, on the other hand, will likely tout another point on his résumé: his tenure as governor, during which the commonwealth was seen as a magnet for new business. And with anti-Washington fervor casting a large shadow in Virginia, Allen is also likely to spend more time talking about his gubernatorial record than his job in the Senate, which he lost after a humbling single-point defeat in 2006. “The stimulus, the health care debacle, the spending: Those are the things Tim Kaine championed. Virginians know what they are getting with Tim Kaine and that’s him standing shoulder to shoulder with the president,” said Allen adviser Dan Allen. Kaine’s team embraces the economic contrast — but projects it through a different prism in order to ask voters to turn the clock back five years. “Gov. Kaine balanced the state budget and cut more than $5 billion in state spending. Sen. Allen took us from record surplus to record deficit, adding more than $3 trillion to the national debt. Under Gov. Kaine, Virginia was the best state for business four years in a row, while Sen. Allen voted for Bush policies that led to near economic collapse,” said Kaine spokeswoman Brandi Hoffine, playing up Allen’s tenure in the Senate. Tags: George Allen,

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Categories: House races Crossroads puts 'Pea-losi' in Boswell's pod Crossroads GPS is investing another $150,000 over the next two weeks into its advertising campaign against Iowa Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell. The newest spot, released first to POLITICO Wednesday, ties Boswell to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and plays a quote twice of her saying how "we took a half a trillion dollars out of Medicare" to pass the Affordable Care Act. "Leonard Boswell, Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Three peas in a pod on healthcare," says the narrator before a shot of Pelosi morphs into a pea pod. Its the second Crossroads ad against Boswell this fall. An October spot utilized the "pea pod" theme as well to criticize Boswell's support for the stimulus package. But that commercial only referenced President Obama and left out Pelosi. This latest flight will put Crossroads' television tab at over $300,000 in the 3rd Congressional District.

Crossroads GPS is investing another $150,000 over the next two weeks into its advertising campaign against Iowa Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell. The newest spot, released first to POLITICO Wednesday, ties Boswell to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and plays a quote twice of her saying how "we took a half a trillion dollars out of Medicare" to pass the Affordable Care Act. "Leonard Boswell, Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Three peas in a pod on healthcare," says the narrator before a shot of Pelosi morphs into a pea pod. It's the second Crossroads ad against Boswell this fall. An October spot tapped the "pea pod" theme as well to criticize Boswell's support for the stimulus package. But that commercial only referenced President Obama and left out Pelosi. This latest flight will put Crossroads' television tab at over $300,000 in the 3rd Congressional District. Tags: American Crossroads,

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Categories: Senate races Warren defends outside groups During a Democratic Senate candidate forum Tuesday night, Elizabeth Warren defended the role of outside groups to have their say in the Massachusetts Senate race. "There are environmental groups, there are family advocacy groups who want to be heard in an election, so I think a blanket notion that nobody talks except the two candidates is not within the spirit of how democratic elections work," Warren said. Last month, Sen. Scott Brown said he wished all outside groups would cease running ads. Brown campaign manager Jim Barnett said it was "sad" Warren declined to join Brown's call. This fall, the League of Conservation Voters and the anti-Brown super PAC Rethink have targeted Brown while Crossroads GPS has assailed Warren. Tags: Elizabeth Warren,

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Categories: Senate races Translating Patty Murray's briefing (Photo Credit: AP)



Flanked by three female Senate recruits, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Patty Murray predicted Tuesday that Democrats would make the 2012 cycle a historic year for women. Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley, Hawaii Rep. Mazie Hirono and Wisconsin Rep. Tammy Baldwin were all showcased at the DSCC press briefing, each allotted time to lay out their personal biographies and highlight unique qualities they bring to the race as females. But when it was Murray's chance to field questions, she mostly exercised a prevent defense strategy, playing it safe by couching her answers and not offering much up in terms of news. As a result, the time seemed ripe to utilize a POLITICO favorite -- the dissection of what Murray said and what she really meant. New Mexico Senate What Murray Said: "As you know we recruited Rep. Heinrich, he's doing a great job. We have not endorsed in that race. But I think he's doing really great and look forward to supporting him." What She Meant: The DSCC is with Heinrich. There isn't a sitting member of Congress they aren't supporting. But it doesn't want to fan flames and upset Hispanics, who are hoping to nominate State Auditor Hector Balderas. Using the word "recruited" rather than support is semantics but it provides some space to avoid a headline that could upset locals. Nebraska Senate What Murray Said: "[Ben] is a fighter. He really knows his state and understands his state. Obviously he's going to be deciding here in the next few weeks whether he's going to run or not. He's got a tremendous amount of encouragement from our caucus and from our people from both sides of the aisle." What She Meant: That 'no more retirements' statement she made earlier this year is no longer applicable. There's now a real sense Sen. Ben Nelson could decide to throw in the towel, but it's likely the DSCC is just as much in the dark as the rest of us. Murray didn't offer a contingency plan if Nelson quits, but the bench in Nebraska doesn't seem to be deep for Democrats. Missouri Senate What Murray Said: "Claire knows her state. She knows when to stand with the president and she knows when to say 'this is not right for my state.'" What She Meant: McCaskill should go near President Obama only if absolutely necessary, meaning a big dollar fundraiser. Other than that, her messaging and charm is when she flashes her independence from her party. We not only expect her to do that, we hope she does. It's Missouri for gosh sakes. Texas Senate What Murray Said: "Texas is a large state and of course we have a Democratic candidate there and he's out working and we're following that race closely." What She Meant: Likely not to draw audible laughs, which that response did. After being initially hailed as a pick-up opportunity, Texas is off the radar for Democrats. DSCC executive director Guy Cecil suggested as much last month. Murray didn't even mention Ricardo Sanchez's name. Connecticut Senate What Murray Said: "When we go out to talk to people in states, we look at who is the strongest candidate, who can win, who has the strongest support. And in that state Chris Murphy is just a great candidate and I expect him to win." What She Meant: It's significant that even as the DSCC touts a 'year of the woman' meme, there's one female candidate who didn't make the cut: Susan Bysiewicz, a former Secretary of State who is the only person in the race who has previously won statewide. Does deference belong to Murphy because he's a congressman? Bysiewicz's camp doesn't seem to mind. It gives them the "outsider" label that's so en vogue. "We have no problem not being accepted by the party," campaign manager Jonathan Ducote tells POLITICO. "If you look at Susan's record she has never been a favorite of insiders in Hartford either. It is because she has taken on tough fights." Tags: DSCC,

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