Here, with 5:34 left in the first quarter of the AFC Championship game, you see very clearly the value of a cornerback who can bump a receiver all the way out of his route, and out of the quarterback’s picture as a result. It isn’t the pressure that gets to Mahomes here—he has a clean pocket to throw the deep post. But he’s expecting Sammy Watkins (No. 14) over the middle on a deep timing route, and Watkins isn’t there. Why? Watch on the replay, where cornerback Stephon Gilmore (No. 24) pushes Watkins out of the route at the line of scrimmage, disrupting the timing of tight end Travis Kelce’s (No. 87) quick out as well. Watkins is five yards behind the throw as a result.

Two plays later, Mahomes was sacked on third down by linebacker Kyle Van Noy (No. 53) on an all-out blitz in which Van Noy takes a two-gap stunt to bring front-side pressure that neither Mahomes nor his offensive line was ready to counter. To bring this many defenders against an improviser of Mahomes’ caliber, especially on third down, speaks to an ultimate confidence in your schemes and personnel. Belichick has his blitz/coverage combinations dialed in, and this is the result.

Here’s another third-down sack in the first half–this time, on a third-and-9 with 3:57 left in the second quarter. Defensive lineman Trey Flowers (no. 98) brings Mahomes down at the end of a five-man rush. The pressure kills this play, but the tight coverage, especially against the bunch left formation, makes it impossible for Mahomes to transcend it. He’s looking for a shot play on a long down, and there’s nothing there.

Fast-forward to Goff in the Super Bowl, and how he might deal with such issues. One thing I’ve noticed when watching Goff’s tape is that, at this point in his career, he’s still a late processor at times. Which is to say that he tends to throw receivers open when they’re already open–which means that by the time the ball arrives, his receivers are covered. The ability to throw consistently with anticipation is something he’s not yet mastered. It’s not a fatal flaw, but it does show up–and it allows defenders who cover his receivers closely to jump routes for deflections and interceptions. It’s a bad trait to have against this defense.

This near-pick against the Cowboys in the Rams’ divisional round win shows the issue. Here, Goff is trying to get the ball to receiver Josh Reynolds (No. 83) on an intermediate in-cut. Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (No. 24) isn’t playing Reynolds head-up, so when Reynolds moves inside, this should be a schemed-up pitch-and-catch. But Goff releases the ball late, and Awuzie is able to move through and eliminate the threat. Notice that Goff has a clean pocket here–nothing external affects his timing possibility that cornerback Anthony Brown (No. 30) is carrying Reynolds upfield. In the end, Brown moves to cover tight end Gerald Everett (No. 81) on the release route.

Goff did make some great throws against the Saints’ pressure/coverage combinations in the NFC Championship game, and he’ll need to make even more against the Patriots–a team that has developed an excellent way to keep your offense off the field with its clock-killing power run game. Here, with 13:55 left in overtime, Goff tries to bootleg left, but he’s got pass-rusher Alex Okafor (No. 57) in his face immediately. There are versions of Goff I’ve seen that would not be able to play past that pressure, but this is an ideal response. Tight end Tyler Higbee (No. 89) releases to the outside under the Saints’ coverage, and Goff somehow manages to stop, flip his right hip to re-establish a solid base, and make the throw. Not only did this negate the pressure, but the route underneath the coverage gave Goff an easy read for the completion.

In Super Bowl XXXVI, Rams offensive coordinator Mike Martz was never able to form a winning response to Belichick’s “Bull’s-eye.” Now, with his own quarterback in the eye of the storm, it’ll be up to Sean McVay to devise a series of strategies to defeat the modern equivalent–and up to Jared Goff to avoid Kurt Warner’s fate.