Social media analysis finds issues such as European court are behind wave of online support for MP as potential Tory leader

This article is more than 3 years old

This article is more than 3 years old

Brexit campaigners have seized on signs of a possible climbdown over Europe and are using it to rally support around alternative Tory leaders, according to a study.

Analysis of social media activity, a key political battleground during the referendum, reveals a particular backlash at the European court of justice (ECJ) after ministers hinted it could play a continued role in British affairs after March 2019.

Researchers at Signify, a data science company, used public data to examine 50,646 individuals sharing articles about the ECJ on platforms such as Facebook and found four times as many people were pro-Brexit than pro-remain, while 83% expressed negative sentiment about the court.

Promotion of hot button issues such as the ECJ now appears to be behind a wave of online support for Tory politicians who are opposed to any softening of the government strategy, and may stir a similar resurgence in support for Ukip as Labour also softens its Brexit message.

“The issue is a proxy for sovereignty and control, and has become a tool for galvanising Tory Brexiteers and Ukip supporters, coalescing their support around Jacob Rees-Mogg,” said Joe Harrod, chief operating officer of Signify.

“It’s hard for remainers to get traction on this topic because all their arguments are about process and statutes, while many leave voters genuinely regard sovereignty and the rule of Brussels as a red line issue. It’s a perfect topic to energise that base.”

There was a similar wave of interest on Twitter, where the ECJ became the second hottest Brexit topic of the last fortnight, overtaking immigration as a key feature of online reaction when the government published a series of new policy papers.

Analysis of social media trends is still in its infancy but is alleged to have played a critical part in helping Brexit campaigners effectively target anti-EU messages during the run-up to last year’s referendum.

The issue has been amplified via alternative media outlets such as Westmonster, a Breitbart-style site funded by the leave financier Arron Banks, and others who have praised the firm response of Rees-Mogg.

However, the Signify research suggests that public understanding of the detailed issues behind the headlines remains limited.

“The ECJ is a boring issue brought to life by personalities, especially Rees-Mogg – which makes it a perfect topic for a network that has been coalescing behind him as a candidate for prime minister,” added Harrod. “Building outrage about red-line issues would seem to provide Ukip with a route back into the debate.”

Public confusion over the best way to pursue Brexit chimes with the findings of traditional opinion pollsters, whose work has been analysed in a separate study published next week by the Centre for Social Investigation at Nuffield College, Oxford.

Noah Carl’s report for the Economic and Social Research Council’s The UK in a Changing Europe initiative looked at 50 surveys since the referendum and found support split evenly for both “soft” and “hard” Brexit.

“At the present time, there is not overwhelming public support for or against any specific Brexit deal,” said Carl. “Things like granting EU citizens the right to stay, the power to control immigration, and continued free trade are widely popular. Yet recent polls continue to show that the public is split on the putative trade-off between staying in the single market and having control over immigration.”