Change is good.

In order to give a more objective and structured feel to the article, we are going to be implementing some rules to govern how we select our recommended gameweek squad.

In defence, where we have 7 slots to fill (2 goalkeepers and 5 defenders), we’ll be selecting 2 players from the 2 teams with the best implied chance of keeping a clean sheet in the respective gameweek, and completing the remainder of our back line with 1 player from each of the 3rd, 4th and 5th ranked teams.

In attack (5 midfielders and 3 strikers), we’ll select the 8 likeliest scorers in the gameweek according to the bookies, but not selecting more than 2 attacking players from any Premier League side. We won’t be selecting any players who are a 50% injury doubt or greater, and finally, our entire squad will conform to the Fantasy Premier League squad selection rules and FantasyBet player and squad values. In the event of any conflicts (e.g. having 2 Arsenal defenders along with Giroud and Sanchez, with 4 players from Arsenal being an ineligible squad), the selection(s) with the lowest implied chance (of either a goal or a clean sheet) will be omitted.

Our captain will be the player with the best implied chance of scoring and our vice will be a defensive asset from the team with the highest implied chance of registering a clean sheet. Hopefully, these rules will also result in more successful squad picks, which will in turn lead to more Fantasy points! So, without further ado…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Man Utd 2.15 47% Everton 2.3 43% West Brom 2.38 42% Liverpool 2.5 40% Leicester 2.55 39% Man City 2.6 38% Watford 2.7 37% Tottenham 2.75 36% Arsenal 2.88 35% Bournemouth 2.88 35% Sunderland 3.6 28% Aston Villa 3.7 27% Southampton 4 25% Newcastle 4 25% Stoke 4 25% Crystal Palace 4 25% Norwich 4.33 23% Chelsea 4.5 22% Swansea 5.5 18% West Ham 6 17%

Manchester United top the bookies defensive rankings this weekend with a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet. The Red Devils entertain Southampton, who have lost 4 consecutive away games whilst scoring only 2 goals. In addition, United have only conceded 4 goals at Old Trafford this season, making them the league’s meanest home defence. As a result, the likes of David de Gea and Chris Smalling, the safest routes into the LVG’s rearguard, find places in our squad.

Everton (43%) rank 2nd this week, despite the fact that they are still looking for their 1st home clean sheet of the season. Opponents Swansea have scored just 8 away goals this term, and have blanked in 3 of their last 5 road trips. With the reverse fixture back in September finishing 0-0, Leighton Baines, who carded 2 assists against Chelsea in Gameweek 22, and Phil Jagielka are our recommendations.

West Brom (42%), Liverpool (40%) and Leicester (39%) make up the rest of the top 5 this weekend. The Baggies entertain an Aston Villa side who have scored just 18 goals this season, the lowest in the Premier League. Jurgen Klopp’s men have a better defensive record away (13 goals conceded) this term than they do at home (15 conceded), and Saturday’s early kick off sees them travel to East Anglia to face Norwich, whilst Claudio Ranieri’s charges, who host Stoke at 3pm, have kept 3 clean sheets in 4, 2 of which have come at The King Power. As players with attacking potential, Craig Dawson and Alberto Moreno make our squad, whilst Kasper Schmeichel fills our second goalkeeping position.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet rankings tells us that defensive assets from Chelsea (22% – away to Arsenal), Swansea (18% – away to Everton) and West Ham (17% – at home to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Sergio Aguero 1.97 51% Romelu Lukaku 2.2 45% Odion Ighalo 2.45 41% Harry Kane 2.5 40% Jamie Vardy 2.5 40% Olivier Giroud 2.62 38% Christian Benteke 2.75 36% Wayne Rooney 2.8 36% Troy Deeney 2.88 35% Alexis Sanchez 3 33% Benik Afobe 3.05 33% Theo Walcott 3.1 32% Roberto Firmino 3.15 32% Jermain Defoe 3.2 31% Diego Costa 3.25 31% Kevin Mirallas 3.3 30% Kevin de Bruyne 3.4 29% Riyad Mahrez 3.5 29% Salomon Rondon 3.6 28% David Silva 3.8 26% Connor Wickham 3.85 26% Christian Eriksen 4 25% Aleksandar Mitrovic 4 25% Charlie Austin 4 25% Rudy Gestede 4.1 24% Enner Valencia 4.25 24% Bojan 4.25 24% Dele Alli 4.33 23% Andre Ayew 4.4 23% Shane Long 4.5 22% Georginio Wijnaldum 4.5 22% Dimitri Payet 4.6 22% Joselu 4.6 22% Steven Naismith 4.75 21% Dusan Tadic 6.5 15% Cesc Fabregas 8 13%

Sergio Aguero punished those without him last weekend as 2 goals, an assist and full bonus saw him rack up a 16 point haul. The explosive Argentine is the bookies favourite to score this weekend with a 51% chance of finding the back of the net against West Ham. With their talisman back on top form (3 goals in 3 games), City will be looking to pick up their own poor away form and get revenge against a Hammers side that beat them 2-1 at The Etihad in mid-September. Courtesy of his lofty position atop the attacking ranks, Aguero is given the captain’s armband for our squad this gameweek.

Our other strikers, ranked 2nd and 3rd this week, are Romelu Lukaku (45%) and Odion Ighalo (41%). Both men are well-placed in the race for the Golden Boot, with 15 and 14 goals apiece, however, the pair have stuttered recently, failing to notch in each of their last 3 league games. Home clashes against Swansea and Newcastle, who concede 1.4 and 2.1 goals per away game respectively, offer them the chance to get back on track.

Due to injury concerns, Alexis Sanchez (33%) doesn’t make our gameweek squad, allowing teammate Theo Walcott (32%) to enter the fray. Although he has only scored 3 league goals this season, Walcott’s searing pace means that he’s a threat to any opposition, regardless of whether he plays up front or on the wing. He hosts a Chelsea side who conceded 3 against Everton last time out. Having played up front in Liverpool’s last 2 games, Roberto Firmino (32%) offers us an out-of-position (OOP) prospect and also finds himself in the squad ahead of a trip to Norwich. The Brazilian attacker will be hoping to add to the 2 goals he scored against Arsenal in Gameweek 21.

2 of the breakthrough stars of the season, Riyad Mahrez (29%) and Dele Alli (23%), take up the remainder of our midfield starting spots. Mahrez has the chance to get back on the scoreboard against a Stoke side who have conceded 5 goals in their last 2 away games, whilst Alli will be looking to pounce on a Palace defence who let in 3 against Chelsea when they last played at home. Andre Ayew (23%) makes the squad on the back of an impressive debut season in England to date which has seen him bag 7 Premier League goals and is currently playing OOP at the head of the Swans’ attack.

Kevin Mirallas (30%), Kevin de Bruyne (29%), David Silva (26%) and Christian Eriksen (25%) all represent decent picks for the weekend according to the bookies, but fail to make our XV due to squad selection or budget constraints.

The Gameweek Squad

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.

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