4. Return of Kirodi Lal Meena

The return of MLA Kirodi Lal Meena is a shot in the arm for the BJP ahead of the assembly elections. Meena, a five-term MLA and two-time MP, is an influential leader and his community has a significant presence in 28 assembly seats in 11 districts of eastern Rajasthan. He had left the BJP in 2008 after differences with Raje and became the National People’s Party President. The party bagged four seats/4.3 per cent vote share in 2013 even when a strong BJP wave engulfed the state. This was 1 per cent higher than traditional third force Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). It provides a cushion to the BJP in case an alliance of Congress and BSP materialises in the state.

5. Congress has been peaking too early in recent elections

Congress has been peaking too early in state elections and unable to push through. Despite all the positive signs in Gujarat and Karnataka, the party failed to win the elections. While the Gujarat and Karnataka results may have lifted the morale of the average Congress worker, the fact that in the end Modi comes and scores heavily, is a big dampener for the party worker. Another challenge for Rahul will be, how does he allocate time between the three states which go to polls together.

6. BJP has successfully formed an umbrella coalition of caste

BJP formed governments in three states together in 1991 in UP, MP and Rajasthan. These governments were dismissed by P V Narasimha Rao in the aftermath of the Babri Masjid demolition. While BJP lost in MP and UP, it retained Rajasthan in re-elections in 1993, despite a higher minority population comparatively in the state. The party over the years has expanded its footprint amongst castes which used to traditionally back the Congress like Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and lower Other Backward Classes (OBCs). It has also been successful in shedding its urban party image, as the state has primarily rural seats (175 out of 200).

7. BJP’s retention ratio is on an increase

The retention ratio of BJP, that is its ability to retain seats from one election to another, has consistently increased from 16 per cent in 1993-98 to 65 per cent in 2008-13. While for Congress during the same period it has declined from 56 per cent to 5 per cent. It implies BJP’s performance is more stable while Congress party’s more volatile. The seat-share to vote-share ratio is also better for BJP in the range of 0.50 (worse, 1998) to 1.8 (best, 2013) while that for Congress is in the range of 0.32 (worse, 2013) to 1.7 (best, 1998). Even when Congress has emerged victorious, its seat-share to vote share ratio has been witnessing a decline, from 1.7 in 1998 to 1.3 in 2008 as per a Hindustan Times Analysis.

What Are Opinion Polls Saying?

ABP-C Voter opinion poll predicts a Congress win with 130 out of 200 seats, while India Today-Axis also suggests 48 per cent respondents want a change of guard in the state. Public prediction platform Crowdwisdom predicts a hung assembly with Congress as single largest party at 96, BJP at 91, BSP at four and others nine seats.

To sum up, a cracker of an election is on the horizon. The BJP is looking to reverse the trend like Akalis did in Punjab in 2012 and Amma did in Tamil Nadu in 2016.