The Political Trader’s Guide to Super Tuesday

Introducing a one-stop shop with the latest market prices and live election results for every state — all on guesser.com

Election year had a surprising beginning. A disastrous kick off in Iowa, the consolidation of Bernie Sanders as Democratic national front-runner and President Trump acquitted in his Senate impeachment trial.

As we wait for a further early state result this weekend in South Carolina, the political trader community gets ready for a March madness that will grab attention not only from Democrats, but from the entire national political landscape. Traders should see this month as a golden opportunity to profit off their political predictions.

Super Tuesday — The Big Prize

On March 3rd, Super Tuesday, more than a third of all delegates for the Democratic National Convention are up for grabs on this single day.

Super Tuesday includes 14 states across the country, plus American Samoa and also Democrats Abroad, whose vote begins this day and extends until next week. This diverse set will include heavily Democratic states like Massachusetts, traditionally Republican ones such as Texas and divided states like Colorado or Virginia. The star guest this year will undoubtedly be California, which has moved from an early June primary up to March 3rd. The Golden State is the largest state in terms of pledged delegates, with 415 over a total of 3979. It takes 1991 delegates to win the party’s nomination, so you get an idea of the West Coast’s weight in this battle.

Super Tuesday map, with state delegates comparison — Washington Post

With the Democratic choice still being relatively undecided — 6 considerable candidates? — these states voting all at once will take the race to the next stage, probably leaving only two or three contenders fighting for the nomination after it. Get ready for some important dropouts on the days after the event.

Guesser.com — Track All The Action

The speed and sensitivity with which betting markets react to the first traces of new information provides insight that continues to beat polling — PredictIt charts showed Bernie as the national front runner 2 weeks before the RCP poll average.

But the landscape of tools for political traders still lacks the desirable quality, making operations much less efficient than they could be. A few weeks the blog Augur Edge wrote these thoughts about some needed improvements in tracking the Iowa caucuses:

A large part of the community saw themselves in this situation that night or during the New Hampshire and Nevada votes. It can only get worse when 14 states open their polls or precincts, each in their own time zone and with their own particular electoral procedures. With the tools used so far, keeping a pulse on this would be a headache.

Taking a view on the most decisive day in the presidential primary calendar, we’ve accepted the challenge of solving this fragmented experience problem by launching a brand new page focused on boosting efficiency when trading on political markets. From today you can find at guesser.com a special Super Tuesday dashboard that will be the only place to show you the latest PredictIt prices and trends along with election live data.