by Vincent Verhei

Late in the first quarter on Sunday, the Broncos had a second-and-13 at their own 22-yard line, trailing Kansas City 10-0. Peyton Manning lined up in the pistol with Ronnie Hillman behind him, two tight ends to his left, and two wide receivers stacked to the right. The Chiefs countered with a base 3-4, with strong safety Ron Parker and cornerback Marcus Peters covering the two wideouts and Eric Berry backing them up. At the snap, the Chiefs rushed three linemen, plus inside linebacker Josh Mauga, who rushed from Manning's left across center Matt Paradis' face and into the A-gap. Paradis didn't lay a finger on Mauga, but Hillman stepped up and was able to slow him down and give Manning time to try a pass. Manning targeted Demaryius Thomas, who had beaten Parker on a deep out. However, Peters, who had been trailing Emmanuel Sanders deep, read the pass and broke on the ball. Manning's pass sailed in front of Thomas, and things looked bad. By this point Peters had already intercepted one pass and dropped another, and it looked like he was going to get his third chance at a turnover, this one likely to be a pick-six. Thomas, though, was able to reach out with one hand and reel in the catch, taking the ball from the air before it could reach Peters, and finishing with a gain of 17 yards. I went ahead and made a GIF of the play. Here it is:

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I described this play in such detail and am showing it to you here because it is quite notable. Not only was it Manning's only first down of the day, it is entirely possible it will be the last of his career. Manning has been a terrible NFL quarterback all year, he's been banged up, and on Sunday, he was benched. After four interceptions, one fumble, one intentional grounding foul, and zero points, Broncos coach Gary Kubiak sat Manning down and put 2012 second-round draft pick Brock Osweiler into the game. With all those turnovers and so little yardage, this was one of the worst games of all time, but it was not the worst of this season. That "honor" goes to Nick Foles, whose horrible game against Green Bay in Week 5 looks even worse in hindsight thanks to the Packers' recent defensive struggles. Remember, though, that DYAR is a counting stat, and Manning only dropped back 22 times against Kansas City, while Foles had 29 dropbacks against Green Bay. Manning's DVOA against the Chiefs (-204.7%) was significantly worse than Foles' against Green Bay (-158.6%). And putting numbers aside for a minute, remember that Manning only got his one first down because one of his receivers was able to do this:

With Manning out of the game, Osweiler threw his own interception before leading a pair of garbage-time touchdown drives. He'll get at least one more chance to prove he can produce points when it matters. Manning came into the game with rib and foot injuries. Kubiak later admitted that he made a mistake letting Manning start the game. On Monday, word broke that Manning would miss the Week 11 game against Chicago with a case of plantar fasciitis. Kubiak's prior statements, though, suggest the move is temporary. "Peyton's our quarterback," he said following the Kansas City game. "If he's healthy and ready to go, Peyton's our quarterback." Should he be, though? Despite the Broncos' stellar win-loss record, Manning has had one good game this season: In Week 8, when he was fifth in Quick Reads after throwing for 340 yards against Green Bay. He was only above replacement level one other time, against Detroit in Week 3. In his other seven games this year, Manning has been below replacement level every time, finishing 22nd or worse in Quick Reads each week. Given the sorry state of Chicago's defense (22nd in pass defense DVOA coming into Week 10), it's quite likely that Osweiler will look better against the Bears than Manning has in any game this year; a couple of touchdowns with no interceptions (Manning leads the NFL in interceptions and has thrown at least one in every game this season) should do it. And even as bad as the Bears defense is, Osweiler should come out OK in the Quick Reads rankings if he can just avoid turnovers. Let's make this clear, this is not an endorsement of Osweiler as much as it's an indictment of Manning. Through 10 weeks of the NFL season, he has been by far the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, last among qualifying quarterbacks in both total value (-447 DYAR) and efficiency (-31.9% DVOA). (These numbers will change slightly after the Monday night game.) His "lead" for worst DYAR is commanding; nobody else is worse than -290. There are some close competitors for worst DVOA, but those are names like Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick who have already lost their jobs and might not get a chance to catch him. And really, doesn't it say a lot that all players who have played anywhere near as badly as Manning have already been benched? Among players who are still starting for their teams, Manning's closest threat in both categories is Sam Bradford, he of the -49 DYAR and -13.3% DVOA. And Manning already has 340 dropbacks this season, more than enough to qualify for the end-of-season leaderboards. What all this means is, even if he doesn't throw another pass this season, Manning is a virtual lock to finish last in both DYAR and DVOA when all is said and done.

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Just how bad are those numbers? A -31.9% DVOA is nothing memorable. It would tie Manning with Chris Simms in 2006 for the 106th-worst season on record. Four qualifying quarterbacks had worse DVOAs last season alone. Manning's mark of -411 DYAR is worse, and would put him right outside the bottom 40 in worst DYAR seasons ever. Now, for the sake of argument, let's say Manning returns to the lineup after the Chicago game, but doesn't play any better than he has in the past. Through nine starts, Manning is averaging -49.7 DYAR per game. If he maintains that average over 15 starts, he would finish with -745 DYAR. That would be one of the 10 worst seasons of all time, but not close to the worst season in recent history (Blake Bortles had -955 last year) or of all time (David Carr's mark of -1,130 in 2002). What does a season like this mean for Manning's legacy? He entered the season as the all-time leader in both DYAR and DVOA among all players with at least 1,000 passes since 1989. His lead in DYAR is still very safe (even with his dismal campaign and Tom Brady already amassing more than 1,000 DYAR, Manning's career totals still trump Brady's by more than 6,000), but his lead in DVOA is not. Manning entered the season with a career DVOA of 32.0%, but his current numbers would bring that down to 29.7% -- which would leave Manning second in this category, just behind Steve Young (30.4%) and just ahead of Brady (26.3%, including his 2015 numbers). It's never a good thing when you get your record "broken" by a guy who retired 16 years ago. Those numbers, though, speak to Manning's bountiful glory days of the past, and not his woeful days of the present. Osweiler doesn't have to play well against Chicago to prove he should be Denver's starter. He doesn't even need to be average. If he is merely bad-but-not-terrible -- or even terrible-but-not-The-Worst -- then he'll have played better than Manning has at almost any point this season, and will have proved that he deserves to stick in the starting lineup. Because terrible-but-not-The-Worst would be an obvious upgrade for a team that still has serious Super Bowl aspirations.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 1. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 22/33 379 3 1 1 164 164 0 CLE Roethlisberger's completions, yards, and touchdowns do not include the four DPI flags he drew for another 141 yards, but those penalties are accounted for in his DYAR. Each of those DPI flags gained at least 29 yards, and they made up four of his eight longest passing plays. There have only been 27 DPI flags that long all season. No other quarterback has even drawn four of them all season, let alone in a single game. Carson Palmer and Jameis Winston have drawn three each; Palmer is the only other quarterback to get two in a game. Roethlisberger killed the Browns all day long with deep passes. Counting those DPIs as completions, he went 10-of-13 for 356 yards on passes that traveled at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage. Yes, that is 27.4 yards per play. 2. Eli Manning NYG 24/44 361 3 0 3 129 127 2 NE Manning also benefited from the yellow hankies, drawing DPIs for 15, 18, and 21 yards. And, like Roethlisberger, he excelled at the deep pass. Counting those two DPIs as completions, he went 8-of-17 for 264 yards. After all those big plays, though, he had some struggles in the red zone. Inside the 20, he went 2-of-8 for 2 yards, and though one of those completions went for a touchdown, he was also sacked twice, fumbling once. Is this a bad time to point out that the Giants lost this game on a last-minute field goal? 3. Jay Cutler CHI 19/24 258 3 0 2 120 106 14 STL About 75 percent of Cutler's DYAR comes from two plays: an 87-yard touchdown to Zach Miller, and an 83-yard touchdown to Jeremy Langford. (One of those passes was caught 2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, the other 5 yards behind it, with 173 total YAC between them. Cutler did not complete a pass deeper than 10 yards downfield in this game.) There have only been eight 80-plus-yard touchdown passes all season. Four of them were on Sunday: Cutler's two, Eli Manning-to-Odell Beckham for the Giants, and Alex Smith-to-Charcandrick West for the Chiefs. Cutler is the only player with two, and he got them not only in the same game, but in the same half. In the second half, though, he did almost nothing, going 7-of-9 for only 25 yards with as many first downs (one) as sacks. 4. Cam Newton CAR 21/26 217 1 0 5 96 74 22 TEN Newton ran seven times for 25 yards, which doesn't sound like much, but all seven were successful plays and five went for first downs, including three third-down conversions, one a 2-yard touchdown. As a passer, Newton had some serious streaks in this game. His first 11 dropbacks all resulted in completions for 132 total yards and eight first downs, including a goal-line touchdown. His next six dropbacks resulted in one incompletion, one completion for a 6-yard loss, and four sacks. And then he finished 9-of-13 for 91 yards with five first downs and one sack. 5. Kirk Cousins WAS 20/25 324 4 0 3 95 95 0 NO Cousins takes the biggest hit due to opponent adjustments this week. The Saints have given up 28 touchdown passes this season, seven more than any other team. They have four interceptions, tied for fewest in the league. They are giving up 8.9 yards per pass, most in the league. In the last three weeks, Cousins, Mariota, and Eli Manning have completed 74 percent of their passes against New Orleans for 10.0 yards per throw with with 14 touchdowns and no picks. So yeah, the Saints stink, they've been getting worse, Rob Ryan got fired, and Cousins' DYAR takes a hit for that. 6. Russell Wilson SEA 15/31 240 1 1 2 60 34 26 ARI Wilson's DYAR is higher than you might have guessed because he was always in a tough situation Sunday night. Seattle's offense kept sticking him in long-yardage scenarios with penalties. The average pass this season has come with 9.0 yards to go for a first down; Wilson's average pass against the Cardinals came with 12.0 yards to go. It was even worse on third downs, when the average distance to go this year (including fourth downs) drops to 7.6, but Wilson's went up slightly to 12.6. That's part of why he had positive DYAR on third downs even though he had just one conversion in seven dropbacks. Twelve of his dropbacks came with 12 or more yards to go, including five with at least 20 to go. He also ran six times for 52 yards and three first downs. 7. Carson Palmer ARI 30/48 363 3 1 3 56 56 0 SEA Palmer fumbled on two sacks in the fourth quarter; those fumbles were both recovered by Seattle. Take those two fumbles away and Palmer would have been second this week. 8. Alex Smith KC 17/31 204 1 0 2 48 45 3 DEN Smith gets the biggest boost from opponent adjustments this week. That's important, because he only threw for four first downs this whole game. From the last minute of the second quarter to the end of the third, he went 2-of-12 for 2 yards with no first downs and no sacks. He only threw one pass in the fourth quarter: an 80-yard touchdown to Charcandrick West. 9. Brock Osweiler DEN 14/24 146 1 1 3 44 42 2 KC Peyton Manning has only one game all year with more DYAR than what Osweiler put together in four drives. 10. Marcus Mariota TEN 16/24 186 0 1 1 34 35 -1 CAR Mariota only had two pass plays inside the Carolina 40, and none in the red zone. One was a 4-yard completion on first-and-10, which Dexter McCluster then fumbled away. The other was a 6-yard gain on third-and-11. 11. Matthew Stafford DET 24/38 242 2 1 0 28 26 2 GB 12. Aaron Rodgers GB 35/60 333 2 0 3 26 22 4 DET Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 13. Sam Bradford PHI 19/25 236 1 0 4 25 25 0 MIA 14. Ryan Tannehill MIA 21/36 217 2 0 4 24 24 0 PHI 15. T.J. Yates HOU 5/11 69 1 0 1 16 16 0 CIN 16. Tyrod Taylor BUF 17/27 158 1 0 4 3 4 -1 NYJ 17. Derek Carr OAK 29/43 302 2 2 2 0 -1 1 MIN Carr had a weird dead spot in his passing splits. On passes that traveled 10 or 11 yards downfield, he went 1-of-9 with two interceptions (although that one completion went for a 10-yard touchdown). Anything shorter than that, he went 21-of-24 for 138 yards with seven first downs; any deeper, he went 7-of-9 for 154 yards and seven first downs, including a touchdown. 18. Brian Hoyer HOU 12/22 123 0 1 2 0 -6 6 CIN Hoyer's interception came on a Hail Mary on the last play of the first half. 19. Teddy Bridgewater MIN 14/22 140 1 0 4 -1 -12 12 OAK Bridgewater's first third-down play was a 7-yard gain on third-and-2. He didn't convert another third down all day, going 1-of-4 for 11 yards with two sacks. 20. Johnny Manziel CLE 33/45 372 1 1 6 -5 -9 5 PIT 21. Andy Dalton CIN 22/38 197 0 1 3 -5 -13 8 HOU From the last minutes of the first half to the last minutes of the game, Dalton went nearly 30 minutes of clock time without picking up a first down. In that stretch, he went 4-of-13 for 13 yards and two sacks. Inside the Houston 40, he went 5-of-7 for 36 yards and only one first down. Those completions included a 1-yard gain on second-and-18 and a 7-yard gain on third-and-17. 22. Joe Flacco BAL 34/45 316 3 2 1 -12 -23 11 JAC Take out the third quarter and Flacco was a top-five quarterback this week, but in that third quarter he was far and away the worst. In that third quarter, he went 5-of-9 for 26 yards with one first down, two interceptions, and one sack-fumble, recovered by the Jaguars. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 23. Jameis Winston TB 22/39 264 0 2 2 -13 -14 1 DAL 24. Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 15/34 193 2 2 1 -16 -21 5 BUF A poor day on third downs for the Jets passer. He went 5-of-11 for 37 yards with as many interceptions (two) as conversions. 25. Mark Sanchez PHI 14/23 156 0 1 0 -19 -15 -3 MIA In a game the Eagles lost by one point, Sanchez struggled to finish drives. Inside the Miami 26, he went 1-of-4 for 4 yards with no first downs and an interception. 26. Tom Brady NE 26/41 334 2 1 3 -26 -31 6 NYG 27. Matt Cassel DAL 19/28 186 0 1 3 -26 -8 -18 TB Cassel and the Cowboys also lost a close game, losing 10-6 to Tampa Bay. And Cassel also struggled to finish drives. On Tampa Bay's half of the field, he went 4-of-10 for 26 yards with two first downs, two sacks, and one desperate interception at the end of the game. 28. Drew Brees NO 19/28 209 2 2 2 -33 -33 0 WAS 29. Blake Bortles JAC 22/45 188 2 1 3 -87 -101 14 BAL For a long, long portion of this game, Bortles was nearly useless. From about 5 minutes left in the second quarter till about 13 minutes left in the fourth, he went 7-of-22 for 54 yards with two first downs and two sacks. Bortles couldn't do much to get Jacksonville out of trouble. At or inside his own 25, he went 4-of-13 for 30 yards with one first down, one interception, and two sacks. The Ravens have now lost seven games by eight points or less; the record for a single-season is nine, set 13 times, most recently by last year's Bucs. 30. Nick Foles STL 17/36 200 0 1 1 -113 -113 0 CHI On Chicago's half of the field, Foles went 1-for-6 with an interception; that one completion was a 6-yard gain on third-and-7. He threw 12 passes that traveled 10 or more yards past the line of scrimmage. All were incomplete. And even when Foles did complete passes, they didn't really go anywhere. Nine of his 17 completions were failed completions. Only two quarterbacks had more failed completions this week: Johnny Manziel had 12 (out of 33) and Joe Flacco had 13 (out of 34). This is the kind of performance that gets you benched for Case Keenum. 31. Peyton Manning DEN 6/20 35 0 4 2 -246 -246 0 KC On passes that traveled 3 or more yards past the line of scrimmage, Manning went 1-of-15 for 17 yards with four picks. I know I have made some errors in this column this year, but I promise you that sentence is 100 percent accurate. He did not throw a pass on Kansas City's side of the field; from right on the 50, he went 0-for-2 with an interception. He did not complete a pass on third down, going 0-for-7 with two interceptions.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

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DYAR Rush

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DYAR Opp 1. Matt Jones WAS 11 56 0 3/3 131 1 78 17 60 NO All of Jones' carries gained positive yardage. He had three first downs, including a 20-yard gain on third-and-2. His three receptions, each on second down with 7 to 9 yards to go: a 24-yard gain, a 29-yard gain, and a 78-yard touchdown. Each was caught at or behind the line of scrimmage, which means Jones had 135 YAC on the day. 2. LeSean McCoy BUF 19 112 0 5/5 47 0 62 53 8 NYJ McCoy had six runs of 10 or more yards and six first downs on the ground, while being hit for no gain or a loss four times. His receptions included a 15-yard gain on second-and-17 and a 17-yard gain on first-and-10. 3. Charcandrick West KC 24 69 1 3/5 92 1 51 18 34 DEN West's longest run gained only 15 yards, but he had six first downs on the ground (including conversions on all four of his carries with 2 yards or less to go) while getting hit for no gain four times. His 80-yard touchdown included 15 yards in the air and 65 YAC. 4. Jeremy Langford CHI 20 73 1 7/9 109 1 41 15 26 STL We already talked about Langford's big touchdown catch, but he also had a 5-yard catch on second-and-5 and an 11-yard catch on fourth-and-1. He was hit for a loss on six runs, but he balanced that out with four first downs, including a conversion on third-and-10 and a touchdown on third-and-goal from the 6. 5. Andre Ellington ARI 5 61 1 3/4 27 0 38 29 10 SEA Virtually all of Ellington's rushing DYAR came on one play, a 48-yarder on third-and-4 that was 13 yards longer than any other run against Seattle this year. His biggest catch was a 13-yard gain on second-and-8.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

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TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

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DYAR Opp 1. LeSean McCoy BUF 19 112 0 5/5 47 0 62 53 8 NYJ 2. Adrian Peterson MIN 26 203 1 2/3 13 0 36 40 -4 OAK In addition to his 80-yard touchdown run, Peterson had four other gains of 10 or more yards, and eight total first downs on the ground, while being hit for no gain or a loss just three times. 3. Andre Ellington ARI 5 61 1 3/4 27 0 38 29 10 SEA 4. Marshawn Lynch SEA 8 42 1 1/2 8 0 22 27 -5 ARI Much like his quarterback, Lynch spent most of the night against Arizona trying to get out of huge holes. He had a 3-yard touchdown on first-and-goal and a 5-yard gain on second-and-1. His other six carries all came with 10 or more yards to go, including second-and-15, second-and-20, and second-and-25. The average running back carry this season has come with 8.2 yards to go for a first down. Lynch's average carry against Arizona needed 11.8 yards to convert. 5. Alfred Morris WAS 15 92 0 3/3 14 0 15 20 -5 NO Morris was hit for no gain just once while running for four first downs, including runs of 12, 14, and 28 yards.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

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TD Rec Rec

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TD Total

DYAR Rush

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DYAR Opp 1. DeAngelo Williams PIT 17 54 0 1/2 15 0 -32 -35 3 CLE Williams had two first downs against Cleveland, but he was hit for a loss four times and fumbled once.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

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TD Total

DYAR Rush

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DYAR Opp 1. DeAngelo Williams PIT 17 54 0 1/2 15 0 -32 -35 3 CLE

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR Opp 1. Antonio Brown PIT 10 14 139 13.9 2 89 CLE In addition to the catches and yardage listed here, Brown drew three DPIs for 106 total yards. He had nine total first downs on the day, including touchdowns of 56 and 4 yards, plus conversions on third-and-2, third-and-12, and third-and-15. 2. Michael Floyd ARI 7 9 113 16.1 2 67 SEA Floyd's touchdowns of 35 and 27 yards (the latter coming on third-and-14) were his biggest catches of the day. He had five first downs, including a 10-yard gain on third-and-4. 3. Doug Baldwin SEA 7 10 134 19.1 1 52 ARI First six targets: three catches, 27 yards, no first downs. Last four targets: 33-yard gain, 32-yard touchdown, 28-yard gain, 14-yard gain. 4. Brent Celek PHI 4 4 134 33.5 0 47 MIA His four catches: 60-yard gain, 20-yard gain, 40-yard gain on second-and-15, 14-yard gain. 5. Martavis Bryant PIT 6 10 178 29.7 1 44 CLE Bryant drew a 35-yard DPI, and also had catches of 28, 32 (and a touchdown), 44, and 64 yards. Bryant fumbled the ball away at the end of the last play, but it was so long it still went down as positive DYAR. If you want to pretend that fumble never happened, you can add about 20 DYAR to Bryant's numbers.