From the Twitter account of Charles F. Gardner, Milwaukee Bucks beatwriter for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Kidd said team guarded 3 with effort early but did not sustain in 111-92 loss. Rockets 0 for 11 to start; then 14 of 33 on 3s rest of way. — cfgardner (@cf_gardner) January 19, 2017

From Gardner's postmortem of Houston's thrashing of Milwaukee:

"You have to have some pride and there has to be a team effort, and tonight we just didn't give it," Bucks coach Jason Kidd said.

Does this withstand scrutiny?

To assess Head Coach Jason Kidd's assertion Milwaukee players "did not sustain" effort when defending Houston's three-point field goal attempts, contested shot data from stats.nba.com, featuring distance the nearest defender is to an attempted shot, is taken for each individual half as well as for the entire season to establish a baseline. Also necessary is recognizing Houston's goal to shoot as many efficient shots and as few of inefficient shots as possible—three-pointers and attempts at the rim for the former and midrange jumpers for the latter—and what effect, if any, Milwaukee had in suppressing Houston's intentions.

44 of Houston's 95 field goal attempts against Milwaukee were three-pointers. On the season, Houston averages 87 field goal attempts per game, with 40 of them coming from behind the arc. To put it another way, 46.3% of Houston's field goal attempts against Milwaukee were three-pointers, while "only" 46% of Houston's field goal attempts on the season are three-pointers: Milwaukee did not affect Houston's offensive distribution of three-pointers taken versus total shots attempted.

For the season, Milwaukee almost achieves one smothered three-point field goal attempt per game and allows 29.5 three-point attempts per game. Against Houston, Milwaukee had one in each half.

In each half versus Houston, Milwaukee contested a greater percentage of three-point field goals with the nearest defender two to four feet away than the rate posted by the club for the entire season. Milwaukee's contested rate for this range also climbed 66% in the second half.

For the season, 83% of Milwaukee's three-point field goal attempts defended come with a defender more than four feet away from the shooter. Against Houston, it was only 75%, with a first half rate of 80% and a second half rate of 70.8%.

In the second half, while, yes, Milwaukee allowed more "wide open" (defender 6+ feet away) three-point attempts, Milwaukee also allowed fewer "open" (defender 4-to-6 feet away) three-point attempts. Call it robbing from Peter to pay Paul if so desired but, as noted before, Milwaukee also had more "tight" (defender 2-to-4 feet away) contests. It also warrants mentioning that, when Kidd believed the effort of his players to have waned, Milwaukee's defensive contested shot profile for all distances improved relative to its season averages. Warrants mentioning because of Kidd's own words from his press conference after Monday's loss to Philadelphia:

[2:10] "We were one of the best at guarding the 3 point line a couple weeks ago."

It's a simple question: how is it possible to believe "we were one of the best" and then turn around and decry your team's defensive effort when, in that alleged wanting-for-effort period, they did a better job of contesting shots than they did when they "were one of the best"?

From Kidd's Monday press conference:

"Every team we play shoots threes. So, at some point, we have to understand what the three means to us as a team if we want to win."

What does the three mean to Milwaukee?

UPDATED



Defensive Shot Profiles — %age of a team's total shots allowed for each individual zone, relative to league average



Thru Mon 1/16 pic.twitter.com/Tcw6w5EU7K — twelve point courier (@tpcourier) January 17, 2017

Milwaukee "enjoys" one of the worst defensive shot profiles in the league—if not the outright worst—eschewing all analytical wisdom by gifting opposing offenses almost as many efficient corner three-point field goal attempts as inefficient two-point field goal attempts inside the paint but not within the restricted area. By letting opposing offenses get to the rim more on top of shooting fewer midrange jumpers.

HOU Off Profile

RA / Non-ra Paint / MR / Corners / ATB

34.8 / 10.7 / 8.7 / 9.4 / 36.5



vs MIL

37.9 / 10.5 / 5.3 / 11.6 / 34.7



Exploited. — twelve point courier (@tpcourier) January 19, 2017

Houston exploited Milwaukee's generosity: while Houston's three-point attempts came against Milwaukee at the same rate they do against other opponents, Houston traded above-the-break attempts for the more valuable corner three attempts. And Milwaukee, the only team in the entire league allowing more than ten percent of its field goals faced to be from the corners, had no resistance to offer, marred by a defensive scheme that chases the shot clock dragon yet for a return on investment only musters a defensive rating good for 17th in the league because of a shots allowed profile knowingly and purposefully several decades past its expiration date.

And why does shot profile matter? Because, as Nylon Calculus has noted here, here, here and here, "defending the three-pointer means avoiding the three-pointer".

So how is it possible to claim Milwaukee was "one of the best at guarding the 3 point line" as Jason Kidd did?

It isn't. Unless you also then want to claim hitting on nineteen when the dealer has a six showing is anything but a more efficient way to give a casino more of your cash because you did it once and pulled a two and strangers patted you on the back and one of them went, "Eough, the balls on that guy!"

But, here we are, and Jason Kidd is doing just that. Blaming his players for perceived failures of intangibles while lacking the appropriate courage or security to look inwards, let alone into a mirror.

Jason Kidd's perception of the events unfolding in front of him does not match reality. That, or he's aware of the problems of the defensive scheme under his employ but chooses to publicly blast his players instead. He wouldn't be the first ignorant NBA coach, nor would he be the first to favor self-preservation over introspection, but he's gone and poisoned the well. The words of Giannis Antetokounmpo, from Gardner's piece on the Houston game:

"What we've got to do as a team, not just in this game but in all the other games, we've got to play harder. We're trying to build good habits over here and I think we're on the right path. We've got to click a little bit and make a step forward. We're chasing something right here. We're not playing for fun. "I feel it's going to come because I trust my teammates. I know everybody on this team wants to win. I've got to do a better job, too, playing harder. I'm talking about everybody and I'm talking about myself first. We could have had that game today but we gave it away."

Emphasis added.

Milwaukee's best player is believing the argumentum ad verecundiam. That, as his head coach says, Milwaukee's problems are a matter of effort and not of tactics and personnel. That they aren't a charity for points of expected value each game but, rather, just need to try harder.

This offers some hope: what will Antetokounmpo and the team he leads become when freed from Kidd's zealotry?