While Trump administration officials and Border Patrol agents are high-fiving each other about a brief, minor dip in illegal crossings at the southern border, it’s important to highlight the most important thing acting Customs and Border Protection commissioner Mark Morgan said on Monday, “We know these numbers could always spike upwards.”

Indeed, that's exactly what will likely happen come the fall, when the weather cools and it becomes less dangerous for more Central Americans to trek their way north to the Texas border.

The administration is acting like it’s a win that border crossings have steadily declined in the last three months. And yet, even as August showed the lowest number of border apprehensions (64,000) since January, it’s still more than any August of the past five years.

Anyone here tired of winning?

President Trump deserves some credit for trying. House Democrats won’t act on any immigration reform that can’t be summarized as “let them all in.” So it’s left to him to tinker with executive actions on the screwed up asylum process and to dig through the White House couch cushions for extra change that could be used for more border wall.

None of that is an excuse for Trump’s failure to secure the border. A drop in illegal immigration apprehensions is a step in the right direction but it’s negligible when you consider that we were already six light-years from normal.

They might all hold off on the celebrating. Fall is coming.