Nearly half of North Carolinians in an Elon University Poll would vote for a Democrat to unseat President Donald Trump in 2020, while about three-eighths would vote to return Trump to office.

Asked if the election were held today, whether they would vote for Trump or a Democrat, 48 percent of respondents said the Democrat, 36 percent said Trump, and the rest said someone else, they didn’t know or it would depend.

Asked who they think will win the presidency, 43 percent of respondents said a Democrat, while 36 percent again said Trump. Trump was most favored by white, male and rural voters, while a hypothetical opposing candidate fared better with minority, female and urban voters.

Seventy-seven percent of Republicans and 10 percent of Democrats said they’d vote for the president, while 84 percent of Democrats said they’d vote for the Democrat and 7 percent would vote for Trump.

“Consistent with many others polls, we find President Trump maintains strong loyalty among registered Republicans in North Carolina,” said Jason Husser, poll director and associate professor of political science at Elon University. “However, unaffiliated voters are currently breaking toward a hypothetical Democratic candidate by a margin that could portend serious trouble for the president’s 2020 coalition.

“That said, I expect many of those voters will change their minds as the Democratic nominee moves from hypothetical to actual; the extent of this change will largely shape what we see in North Carolina over the next 20 months.”

The survey was conducted Feb. 20–March 7. Interviewed online in an opt-in survey were 491 respondents. Interviewed by telephone or email were 423 respondents chosen at random from public voter rolls. The poll has a credibility interval of +/- 3.5 percent.

Potential challengers

Voters were asked also about other potential presidential candidates. Here are the names and percentages of North Carolina voters with positive impressions of them:

Joe Biden: 54.4 percentBernie Sanders: 44 percentElizabeth Warren: 29.6 percentKamala Harris: 26.6 percentCory Booker: 24 percentMichael Bloomberg: 22.8 percentBeto O’Rourke: 19.2 percentKirsten Gillebrand: 14.3 percentAmy Klobuchar: 13.6 percentJulian Castro: 13.3 percentHoward Schultz: 9.4 percentTulsi Gabbard: 5.6 percent

Former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont were the most recognizable. Many speculate that Biden could soon announce a plan to run. Sanders made a strong bid for the Democratic nomination in 2016.

Biden had higher favorability among younger, female, urban and minority voters, all of whom were more inclined also to look favorably upon Sanders. Among Democrats, 77 percent had a positive view of Biden, compared to 58 percent of independents and 24 percent of Republicans.

“Biden’s numbers are better, by far, than any other candidate in our poll,” Husser said. “However, I expect those gaps will narrow as voters learn more about other candidates.”

Many in North Carolina remained in the dark about former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who ran a close contest last year with U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. Fifty-three percent of voters said they were unfamiliar with O’Rourke. One-third of Democrats expressed a positive opinion of him.

Seventy-eight percent of N.C. voters were unfamiliar with U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, and 65 percent were unfamiliar with U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who recently gained publicity during the confirmation hearings for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., often considered a prime contender, was viewed positively by 30 percent of Tar Heel voters but negatively by 38 percent.

Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, an independent, was unfamiliar to 61 percent of North Carolina voters, while 9 percent voiced a positive impression of him and 15 percent a negative impression.