Former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore's victory in Tuesday's GOP runoff all but solidifies the inevitable: He's the next U.S. Senator from Alabama.

That's the conventional thinking in Alabama, where a Democrat hasn't won a statewide election since 2008, and hasn't won a U.S. Senate race since 1992.

But typical political beliefs, observers note, could be out the window for the next 2-1/2 months as the national attention shifts toward a Dec. 12 general election pitting two opponents with striking differences in personality and biography.

"I expect a real donnybrook in the general election," said Quin Hillyer, a conservative writer based in Mobile. "It could get ugly, and it could get exciting."

Democrats feel with Doug Jones, a former U.S. Attorney in the late 1990s, that they have a tantalizing prospect for taking U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions' former Senate seat.

But most political observers believe that Jones remains a longshot candidate even with a compelling background of prosecuting two Klansmen responsible for the Sixteenth Street Church bombing during the height of the Civil Rights Era.

"I just don't see a Democrat winning statewide," said Steve Flowers, a former Republican member of the Alabama Legislature and an author whose weekly column about Alabama politics appears in more than 60 newspapers.

Said Hillyer: "Moore remains the betting favorite."

Added Brent Buchanan, a Republican strategist based in Montgomery: "The December election is not a tossup. No one knows who Jones is, and there's not enough time or Democrat money to change that in order to win."

'Real race'

Democratic operatives are hopeful, and point to a wave of good luck that has bolstered Jones.

"In every turn, the dominos have fallen to Doug Jones," said Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster for Anzaolne Liszt Research in Montgomery.

McCrary said there have been several examples of good political fortune: An ugly and expensive GOP primary, a polarizing nominee in Moore who could be viewed as "unacceptable" to more establishment Republican voters, and the potential for outside-the-state resources funneling into Jones' camp.

"Democrats I've talked to in Alabama and elsewhere are becoming increasingly believers this will turn into a real race," said McCrary. "The number I keep coming back to is the 51 percent being the share of the vote Moore got the last time he ran against Democrats."

Indeed, the Alabama State Supreme Court race in 2012 is likely to surface as a talking point in the Senate battle. That year, Moore barely defeated Bob Vance, a circuit judge in Birmingham. Vance was a late entry into that race.

McCrary said in 2012, the Moore-Vance election was on the same ballot as the presidential election. Republican Mitt Romney defeated President Barack Obama in Alabama with a 60.55-38.36 percent split.

"Doug Jones does not have the drag of the top of the ticket to worry about," said McCrary. "It's the only thing on the ballot."

William Stewart, professor emeritus of political sciences at the University of Alabama, said the political climate is different today than it was in 2012, as more white conservatives in the Deep South have mobilized around President Donald Trump and his "America First" agenda.

Stewart said there are more hot-button social issues which resonate with voters in Alabama and is beneficial for conservative politicians. The most recent issue, perpetrated by Trump during his Huntsville speech Friday, was this weekend's display by NFL players kneeling during the National Anthem.

"So many Democrats are making statements which rightly or wrongly, a great majority of white Alabamians would disagree with and that will make the Democratic challenge even more difficult," Stewart said. "Alabama is one of the most Republican states in the nation."

The numbers are also against Jones. During the Aug. 15 primary, Moore received 162,570 total votes which was more than the entire Democratic field. Jones won his primary with 104,549 votes, or 65.6 percent of the 154,481 votes cast by Democrats.

Trump's return

Jones is reaching out to political heavyweights to bolster his campaign. Former Vice President Joe Biden will stump for Jones on Oct. 3 in Birmingham.

Moore is expected to join up with Republican stars. He was joined Friday in Fairhope for a pre-election rally with former White House strategist Stephen Bannon, British politician Nigel Farage, and "Duck Dynasty" patriarch Phil Robertson. He's also received support from conservative talk radio personalities like Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham, and had his campaign boosted by an appearance last week from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

There is also the looming potential for another Alabama visit by Trump, who stumped for Moore's GOP rival, Luther Strange while in Huntsville.

Moore has not criticized Trump for that decision, and his supporters like Bannon have underscored the ex-judge's allegiance to the president's "America First" agenda.

But people who've shown up to Moore's pre-election rallies questioned Trump's decision to back Strange.

Gena Jackson, a Semmes resident and devoted Moore supporter, said she expects Trump to return to Alabama and make amends with Moore's supporters. Trump, himself, said on Friday that if Moore wins the runoff, he will return to campaign for him.

"If he wants my vote again, he better get his butt here and stand up for the judge," Jackson said about Trump.

Hillyer said he anticipates another visit from the president, which could take place in coastal Alabama. Strange admitted last week that Trump initially wanted to hold his rally in Mobile, not Huntsville. Trump's first rally in Alabama was held in Mobile in August 2015, and has been viewed by pundits as a key moment in his successful run at the White House.

"He's definitely a political chameleon," said Jess Brown, a retired political science professor from Athens State University. "He'll instantly work for Roy Moore and will be a Moore guy."

Said Flowers: "You can't predict what Trump is going to do. He's just totally unpredictable. Moore will embrace him and he'll be forgiving and all that stuff."

Trump, during his Huntsville speech, said the Senate seat could be at risk for Republicans if Moore won. Republicans own a slim 52-seat majority in the Senate, and losing a reliable GOP seat could cost the White House crucial votes in upcoming political battles on tax reform or repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act.

"If (Trump) saw it would become a Democratic seat, you'll have every Republican here," said Brown. "We're still the only show in town. Trump will probably come back."

Campaign messaging

Three campaign-related elements to keep an eye on, observers note, are whether the two will debate, how Jones will position his messaging in a deep-red state, and whether moderate Republicans will mobilize around Moore.

Hillyer said he believes the GOP establishment will back the ex-judge. The Senate Leadership Fund, the political action committee which bolstered Strange's campaign and attacked Moore, sent a news release out Tuesday indicating it is "vital" to keep the seat in Republican hands.

"I expect Republican Party committees eventually to lick their wounds and spend even more to keep the seat," said Hillyer.

Jones is labeling the completed GOP contest as a "bitter race" with little discussion on issues. He said in a news release Tuesday, that he's focused on "issues that matter" to Alabamians such as health care, jobs, and the economy.

Moore is expected to double down on his social crusades, especially religious liberty. He was removed as a judge in 2003, for refusing to remove a Ten Commandments monument inside the Alabama State Supreme Court building.

What is unknown is whether Moore's more recent past of battling same-sex marriage will become a campaign issue. Moore was suspended from the bench in 2016, for ordering probate judges to deny marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

At a pre-election rally in Fairhope, Moore did not delve into the matter.

Eva Kendrick, Alabama state director with the Human Rights Campaign, said she anticipates outside LGBTQ organizations to come into the state to combat Moore's record.

"Roy Moore is as anti-LBGTQ as they come," Kendrick said. "His words and actions put LBGTQ Alabamians at risk while promoting a cynical politics of division that does nothing to improve the lives of citizens of Alabama."

Moore, as a populist conservative whose social crusades have gained him national name identification, will have an advantage in messaging in Alabama, Brown said.

"He'll attempt to tie Jones to being a big-time social liberal," said Brown. "He'll attempt to paint Jones as someone who will advocate abortion on demand. He'll paint Jones with a national party stereotype, especially on the social issues. That's the spectrum of issues he feels more comfortable with."

Brown said he could see Moore "charging down to" Lee County and joining with a public prayer before a football game. The Lee County School System recently announced it would end the practice of having a pre-game invocation over the loudspeaker.

Said Brown: "I could see him getting into the middle of that, calling Doug Jones out by saying, 'Where's Doug?'"

For Jones, Brown said, the key will be to selling himself to voters as the "calm, deliberative problem solver" who has a "populist" message on economics. He said that it's a message that worked effectively in a previous generation of Alabama politics when Democrats ruled elections with candidates like former U.S. Sen. Howell Heflin and John Sparkman.

"You have to be seen as not wasting the taxpayer's money that you are for balanced budgets and, at the same time, you are for using the largesse of government to help folks with education and health care and that you have sympathies for the working class," Brown said. "I think Doug Jones has to go economics and that the Republicans aren't solving any problems ... that they haven't passed a single piece of legislation (since the 2016 election)."

Stewart said Jones can lean on statistics, which often show Alabama ranking in the bottom among states in poverty and health.

"He should focus on the economic issues and how his party and his programs are better for the average Alabamians than are tax cuts for the rich, as Democrats would say," Stewart said.

Jones will also have some advantages that other Democrats in other states do not, Brown said. "He can be an advocate for greater border security and not pay a price for it in Alabama."

But will Jones get to discuss his agenda during a debate with Moore? That remains questionable.

"Doug Jones should certainly clamor for one day after day after day," said Brown. "I think Moore might agree to a certain number. He'll play coy with it for a while and there will be a challenge and they will agree to something in the end. I sense that he just might want to avoid a high structured debate where journalists or academics might ask him some pointed policy questions."

Alabama, in the weeks ahead of the general election, could be a proving ground for Democratic and Republican strategies in the 2018 midterm elections.

Gary Nordlinger, a professor at the graduate school of political management at George Washington University, said similar efforts were deployed by the Obama camp during recall elections in Wisconsin during 2010 and 2011.

"Alabama has a lot of these forgotten men and women we've been talking about, the people the Democrats have to be able to attract," said Nordlinger.

McCrary said he anticipates both sides testing a variety of messaging strategies.

"I suspect this will become Ground Zero for political battles," McCrary said. "The more action there is from both sides, the more it indicates that both sides are believers and that this seat is legitimately in play."