The Brewers' chances might be better than you think as they head home needing two wins in the NLCS

JR Radcliffe | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

First, the bad news, Brewers fans.

Since the dawn of the wild card in baseball, teams trailing 3-2 in a best-of-seven league championship series or the World Series have won the series only 10 times in 39 tries, which actually makes perfect statistical sense at just over 25 percent. More statistical sensibility: 17 of those 39 series have gone to seven games (44 percent). You’d figure it would be around 50, and that's roughly right, especially if you figure in a correction for the concept that the better team should, slightly more often than not, win that Game 6.

But it’s different when the teams are heading home.

There have been 19 examples in which a team trailing by a 3-2 count in the series is the home team, and eight of those teams have won the series, with three more forcing a seventh game. That’s a victory for the team facing a 3-2 deficit 42 percent of the time and a seventh game 58 percent of the time.

Here’s the breakdown (Wild Card era seven-game series, since 1995):

Teams down, 3-2, headed home

Lost in six: 8

Lost in seven: 3

Won the series: 8

Teams down, 3-2, headed out on the road

Lost in six: 14

Lost in seven: 4

Won the series: 2

Anecdotes that should give you hope

Hold on, before we do this, I know what you’re thinking.

You’re thinking “these teams are all better than the Brewers because of (x),” and heck, maybe in some ways you’re right. But remember, these teams weren’t champions or World Series qualifiers until they were, and many of them took unconventional routes to the promised land. For example, you may say to yourself, “Well, of course last year’s Astros were better than this year’s Brewers.” And sure, they won 101 games and scored a ton of runs. But they, too, were scuffling offensively in the postseason, and remember that it doesn’t matter which team is better when you’re getting into a small sample. It matters who wins the next two games.

And, as you know, the Brewers did win more games than anyone else in the National League this year.

The 2017 Houston Astros (defeated the Yankees in the ALCS)

The Astros scored nine runs in the first five games of that series (the Brewers have scored 16 in the first five of theirs for comparison), and were it not for their stellar starting pitching helping them win two 2-1 games at home, they would have been toast. In New York, they scored five runs in three games. So bad. And then, they found it, scoring a 7-1 win in Game 6 and 4-0 win in Game 7. They went on to win the World Series.

The 2016 Chicago Cubs (defeated the Indians in the World Series)

The Cubs were down, 3-1, and then went on a memorable finish to win their first World Series since goats freely roamed the Earth. They scored 10 runs in the first five games, with two shutouts, but scored 17 runs in the final two games, punctuated by an insane 10-inning seventh game. Heck, the Cubs even pulled this off on the road.

The 2012 San Francisco Giants (defeated Cardinals in the NLCS)

The Giants scored 15 runs in five games but scored 15 in the final two, as well. And this was before the Madison Bumgarner phenomenon (he pitched one game and allowed six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings), and Tim Lincecum allowed four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. The guys who had the biggest impact were Ryan Vogelsong (two earned runs in 14 innings), Barry Zito (no earned runs in 7.2 innings) and Jeremy Affeldt (no earned runs in 4.2 innings). Sounds a lot like the Brewers' top contributors.

The 2011 St. Louis Cardinals (defeated the Rangers in the World Series)

The Cardinals scored 16 runs in a crazy Game 3 but just six runs in the other four. That was before a 10-9 epic in Game 6 that went 11 innings and a 6-2 win in the final. Remember, that team was the wild-card team and didn't appear to have as many weapons as the Brewers that season.

The 2007 Boston Rex Sox (defeated the Indians in the ALCS)

The Red Sox were down, 3-1, but rallied back for 30 runs in three games to reach the World Series and eventually win that, too.

The 2004 St. Louis Cardinals (defeated the Astros in the NLCS)

Including a 12-inning win over Houston, the Cardinals won their final two games at home after scoring just seven runs in three games on the road. Jeff Suppan won Game 7, so please don’t tell me you need an ace starter to win in a big spot.

The 2002 Anaheim Angels (defeated the Giants in the World Series)

After a demoralizing 16-4 loss in Game 5 one night after a heartbreaking 4-3 loss in which the Giants scored a go-ahead run in the eighth inning, it’s easy to imagine that Angels fans were resigned to their fate. But Anaheim rallied from a 5-0 deficit in Game 6 – scoring three in the seventh and three in the eighth – before the final win, anchored by John Lackey.

The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks (defeated the Yankees in the World Series)

The Diamondbacks had an unfair advantage: Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson in the rotation. But after taking a 2-0 lead, the Diamondbacks scored a measly six runs in the next three games, and that included two extra-innings games (31 innings overall). They responded with 15 in Game 6 and a 3-2 win in the bottom of the ninth on Luis Gonzalez's single in Game 7.

The 1996 Atlanta Braves (defeated the Cardinals in the NLCS)

The Braves scored just 12 runs in the first four games but battled back to win the final two at home and take the series. All right, it helped they had three Hall of Famers in the rotation.