1. Mike (LW: 1)

Yes I know Mike had an incredibly rough week, but if the game ended right now, I think that he would easily get the most votes. He has the best combination of likability and strategy, so most people wouldn’t vote against him out of spite and would be forced to acknowledge that he’s been playing the game as hard as anyone from the start. He also has an idol and has shown well in almost every immunity challenge, so he could very well win more than one along the way. Now to the negatives. We’re at the point where everyone has crucial flaws that will hold them back from winning, and Mike’s is obviously that he only has Shirin as a strong ally. This is clearly a huge problem, and he is going to have a lot of work to do in order to avoid being sent home next week. The auction wasn’t his finest moment, and he should’ve been more decisive one way or the other. Although, I thought that whole thing was completely blown out of proportion by Dan. Based on what we’ve seen from Mike so far, I do think that he is more than capable of making a compelling argument to Sierra and Dan to get them back on his side. We’ll see.

2. Rodney (LW: 4)

It wasn’t surprising that Rodney’s sub-alliance was outed last episode. What was unexpected was that after it happened, Rodney actually gained two members. If the numbers sit tight, Rodney’s in a great position. But he faces two major roadblocks. Since Mike and Shirin are so obviously on the outs, it makes in-fighting between the new majority alliance more likely – the group knows it can easily vote for Mike or Shirin the next time around if they decide to blindside a threat from inside the alliance first. Second, there’s a chance that Dan and Sierra’s jump was a temporary one, and if Mike gathers them in addition to Shirin, with Dan’s extra vote that would give them a 5-4 majority. Rodney’s reaction to Mike’s accusations of his sub-alliance, both after the auction and at tribal, weren’t the best, and he could have been calmer in his response. But the end results worked out in his favor, and we can’t forget his crucial conversation with Dan, which shows Rodney just may be getting the feeling for how to play a social game. As the leader of the new majority alliance, we move up Rodney to second overall.

3. Tyler (LW: 3)

I continue to come away from each episode disappointed in Tyler. We almost never hear from him, and he seems content playing second fiddle to Rodney. While there’s a chance he’s got strategy building up inside and is waiting for the right moment to use it, Tyler doesn’t have the track record at this stage of the game to deserve complete benefit of the doubt. It also doesn’t seem like he’s making major social connections with anyone out there, which may limit how many people vote his way if he makes it to final tribal. The reason he’s so high is that because this cast has become pretty unlikable, he’d still win were he matched up against many of the people below him. Additionally, he has been shown to at least consider strategic gameplay before when people have approached him. I am encouraged by the scenes for next episode where he finds out Dan’s advantage – while we don’t know if it’s a great idea to look in someone’s bag, at least Tyler’s doing something, and that’s more than we can say for these past few weeks.

4. Carolyn (LW: 2)

It’s difficult to get a read on what Carolyn’s mindset is because she isn’t at all open about what her strategy is. Is she completely sold on sticking with Rodney, or could she flip to Mike’s side next week? I really don’t know for sure based on what she’s shown us. She does have an idol, which is obviously a huge weapon, but I have to wonder if she is becoming too comfortable because of it. One thing I know is that she’s beginning to become unlikable and isn’t helping herself win any votes. Her name was being floated around this week as someone to vote out, and Jenn’s words were about how much she doesn’t like “Mama C.” She’s the kind of person who isn’t loudly obnoxious like Dan or Rodney but has a sort of arrogance that definitely gets on people’s nerves. However, she still is one of the smarter players left in the game and has a shot to keep going if her alliance holds up. The problem is that her alliance might not make it past next week, which means she may have to play her idol earlier than she probably would have hoped.

5. Dan (LW: 9)

This week’s episode showed us a different side of Dan than we’re used to. While we still got plenty of his bumbling idiot moments, his personal side came out which suggested that he isn’t 100% crazy like we previously had thought. I don’t think Dan will win, but he’s gaining enough momentum where depending on what the final three is, he may have a shot. Winning that extra vote was huge, and Dan using that correctly could be his guide to winning the million dollars. It would give him a strategic move he could sell to the jury, and could help him take out a major threat. It looks like Dan’s game might come down to the decision he makes this upcoming week – does he go with Mike, the guy that’s had his back the whole time, or does he move over with Rodney? With Mike he has a surefire alliance, while in Rodney’s crew him and Sierra are likely 5 and 6. It also wasn’t encouraging that Dan was quite flustered when people on both sides were pressuring him for his vote. But Dan’s advantage, coupled with him being a quasi-swing vote, vaults him up to the middle of the rankings.

6. Shirin (LW: 6)

Shirin, like Mike, is an obvious candidate to be voted out next. However, Shirin has shown she’s intelligent about the game, and she could really have an impact down the stretch. The majority alliance is 6 strong, but it’s also newly formed, which leaves plenty of posturing of who’s actually on top. If Shirin’s smart, she could really shake things up by going at the weaker links of that alliance. The good thing for her is that Mike and her trust eachother 100%, so they can talk strategy without fear of it being repeated. I’m excited to see what they can cook up, especially if they pull over Dan, which would give them an idol and an extra vote to work with. Shirin also has another thing going for her: the jury loves her. Except for possibly being in a final tribal with Mike, I think Jenn, Joe and Hali would 100% vote for Shirin. So that’s a plus for her, but if the other castaways are smart enough to notice, that puts a target on her back. But I’m not quite sure we’re there yet with the members of the Rodney alliance.

7. Sierra (LW: 5)

I don’t think Sierra said one word this week, or at least, she didn’t say anything worth remembering. Her once promising position in the game is fading fast, and she is going to have to make a big move soon if she wants to make it to final tribal. Her problem is that even if she does make it there, she will have no case to win. She can’t seem to decide who she wants to be loyal to and seems to switch sides multiple times each episode. This might be a smart way to survive each week, but it’s not a million dollar strategy. I can’t blame her for not liking most of the contestants, but she’s going to have to build a relationship with someone and fast. I think she has as good a shot as anyone to make it through to the final 5, but I don’t know who would like her enough to bring her further than that. Her best bet is probably to bring Dan with her back to Mike’s side and hope that the three blue collars, excluding Rodney, can stick together until the end.

8. Will (LW: 8)

I was stunned to see Will unload on Shirin, especially since she wasn’t even the one who started the food rumor. He was clearly frustrated and didn’t have the guts to take it out on Mike or Jenn, so he chose poor Shirin who was just sitting there minding her own business. The thing is, this is the kind of person Will is. He’s been a follower the whole game and hasn’t had the guts to make any big moves. The one thing he had going for him was that he seemed to be the nicest guy remaining, but now even that is gone. He wasn’t going to get many jury votes before the outburst, but his attack on Shirin definitely hurt whatever slim chance he still had. At this point, he might be the most likely contestant to make the final three because he has absolutely no case for winning. In fact, I’d like to see him make it there just because of how entertaining it would be to see him try to make a case for himself.