The latest battle between Republicans and Democrats for control of the New York Senate is set to rumble this fall through the Hudson Valley and Catskills, where the twin retirements of Republican Sens. John Bonacic and Bill Larkin have created two rare openings in a chamber where incumbents are tough to beat.

Their two, adjacent districts — the 39th and the 42nd — are among no more than a dozen in the state that are seen as competitive and that will likely determine party control of the 63-member Senate, which Republicans have ruled for 48 of the past 50 years and now control by a single seat.

Which party emerges with a majority on Nov. 6 will be significant for New Yorkers. For Democrats, taking over the Senate would remove the only obstacle to a host of bills Republicans have opposed, including proposals to codify abortion rights, close a notorious loophole in campaign donation limits, allow early voting and enable people who were sexually abused as children to sue their abusers and culpable institutions.

Republicans are sounding alarms about that very prospect, warning that a Senate Democratic majority would embrace a liberal agenda and a tax-and-spend mentality, and would steer more funding such as school aid to New York City at the expense of the rest of the state. They cast themselves as the last line of defense for upstate interests — and a needed counterweight for a Democratic governor and Democratic-controlled Assembly.

Upstate vs. downstate

Tom Basile, the Stony Point Republican running to succeed Larkin in the 39th District, pointed to the focus on New York City issues during a debate last month between Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his primary challenger, Cynthia Nixon, as an indication of where Democrats' priorities would lie. He also invokes the tax and fee increases enacted when Democrats controlled the Senate in 2009 and 2010 — including the creation of the MTA payroll tax — as a cautionary tale for New Yorkers.

"If it happens again, you're going to see an out-migration of people and capital, the likes of which we've never seen before," he said.

Assemblyman James Skoufis, the Woodbury Democrat running for the 39th District seat, counters that regionalism cuts both ways in Albany, and that Republicans have channeled disproportionate school aid to Long Island, where they hold seven of nine Senate seats. He plays down the partisan stakes in his own race, arguing that he has earned the respect and trust of Republicans during his three Assembly terms and that "the most important thing is to have good people in government" regardless of party.

"I'm not running to deliver a majority," Skoufis said. "I feel that I'll be effective, regardless of whether my party is in the majority."

Jen Metzger, the Rosendale Democrat running to succeed Bonacic in the 42nd District, said her campaign has focused partly on her longtime community involvement and the new perspective she would bring to Albany, but also on the chance for the Legislature to pass Republican-blocked bills if Democrats win control of the Senate. She cited the Reproductive Health Act and the Child Victims Act as two urgent examples, and also mentioned proposals to close the campaign-finance loophole for limited-liability companies and create an independent ethics commission.

She also supports an Assembly-approved proposal to create a single-payer health system in New York, even though the federal waiver it would need effectively puts that prospect on hold as long as there is a Republican administration in Washington.

"We have to at least try to move forward with this legislation," Metzger said, arguing that soaring health-care costs amount to a crisis that the state must address.

Orange County Clerk Annie Rabbitt, the Greenwood Lake Republican seeking the 42nd District seat, argued that the stalled bills that Democrats invoke are secondary to the concerns that she hears about most often from voters, and that would be hers and the Republicans' focus: taxes and school aid. She said gun owners in the district, still fuming over new gun restrictions New York enacted in 2013 after the school massacre in Newtown, Conn., also frequently voice concern that Democrats will chip away at their Second Amendment rights.

Rabbitt, a former assemblywoman, said that helping Republicans preserve their Senate majority "absolutely" motivated her to run.

"It's bigger than me now," she said. "There's a lot of people counting on me."

Electoral math

Democrats need a net gain of just one seat to take control, and they have more seats they think they might flip than Republicans do. They consider all five districts with retiring Republican senators — including the Larkin and Bonacic seats — to be pickup opportunities, and also see potential victories in a handful of districts with Republican incumbents in the Hudson Valley, on Long Island and in New York City.

Republicans, meanwhile, identify just two or three Democratic seats their party could win. They have a bull's-eye on Sen. John Brooks, a freshman Democrat from Long Island who won by 314 votes in 2016. They also hope former Rockland County Executive Scott Vanderhoef can unseat Democratic Sen. David Carlucci, although Carlucci beat Vanderhoef to win that seat in 2010, Democrats have a 2-to-1 voter enrollment edge in the district, and Vanderhoef — out of office now for five years — lost an election for a school board seat last year.

Basile takes aim at what he said would be the cumulative cost of initiatives that Skoufis and other Democrats support, including a potential expansion of eligibility for free tuition at public colleges, tuition aid for the children of undocumented immigrants, and particularly the single-payer bill, known as the New York Health Act. He refers to it as "socialized medicine" and highlights Skoufis' support for it, even if it is unlikely to advance any time soon.

"Mr. Skoufis has voted for this four times, so he has demonstrated his agreement with the concept of going to a government-run health system," Basile said.

Skoufis notes in response that the most common complaint his office hears from constituents involves problems with health insurers. He said he hears no complaints at all about Medicare, and wonders if Basile also calls that government-run health program "socialized medicine."

"His entire campaign is: 'Vote for me because I'm a Republican, and look at all these scary things that I'm putting out there that could happen,'" he said.

Skoufis tamped down speculation about a Democratic Senate takeover, pointing out that Democrats may need to flip more than one seat to counter any Republicans gains.

"It's not just this race," he said. "We could win this one and lose another, and nothing changes."

cmckenna@th-record.com