Last year, I predicted that success in the USL would be determined by three factors: coaching, consistency, and momentum. If you read my 2018 year in review, you’d discover the Rowdies possessed none of the above in 2018. There was a mid-season coaching change that led to starting centre-back and team leader, Neill Collins, retiring to become head coach a few days later. A slew of player injuries and departures that led to new players being signed frantically during the season (the Rowdies had to get starts out of Kyle “cross to the seventh row” Porter last season, yikes). By the time Collins had a set squad and formation, the season was almost over, and the Rowdies lacked the momentum needed to carry them to a second straight USL playoff berth.

Player turnover in the USL is nothing new for most clubs. It’s normal for teams to let go of players after a year or two and acquire new signings for the next season. The best talents are either young prospects who hope to get called up or long in the tooth veteran hired guns from other leagues. The Rowdies spent the last two seasons relying on the veteran quality of Joe Cole, Marcel Schafer, Georgi Hristov, and Neill Collins. Former owner Bill Edwards employed the pay now, win now strategy which worked well for the Rowdies in 2017 but quickly ran out of steam early in 2018. At the end of the Rowdies’ 2018 season, Stuart Sternberg, owner of the MLB franchise Tampa Bay Rays, purchased the Rowdies.

From all accounts thus far, the Rays have made more of an investment in the Rowdies than taking a hands-on approach. As soccer grows as a marketable sport in America, it’s smart for the Rays to invest in a historic team with a passionate local fanbase. The value of the Rowdies as an organization should only grow in the coming years as the USL and MLS become a fixture of the American sports market. Baseball earns its keep, but on the grand scale, its popularity is similar to college basketball. A listless regular season that relies on post-season dramatics. Soccer’s regular season impact is closer to that of the NFL. Each regular season game has a demonstrative effect on the standings. The MLS and USL already have a streaming deal with ESPN. Both leagues are ever expanding, and there’s still some outside hope the Rowdies could make an MLS bid in the distant future. Maybe even some promotion/relegation rules could come to terms. *Fingers crossed*

But for now, the Rowdies are sitting pretty as a fixture and face of the USL. 2018 can be compartmentalized as a lucid fever dream and now the Rowdies can enter 2019 with a fresh slate.

from prostamerika.com

In a joint effort led by Rowdies COO Lee Cohen and coach Neill Collins, the Rowdies have dipped into the fountain of youth, signing young players left and right throughout the offseason. In previous years, former coach Stuart Campbell kept on at least 11 players or more as names like Nanchoff, Mkandawire, Cole, and Hristov were fixtures of the squad. There were 9 players on the Rowdies 2018 roster that were 30 years old or above. This year, the three oldest players are 28 (until the recent signing of goalkeeper Chris Konopka, the only player over the age of 30). The Rowdies also have two loanees, Caleb Richards, aged 20, and Jordan Doherty, 18, coming from Norwich City and Sheffield United.

Cohen mentions in his interview with Unused Substitutes contributor, Jake Nutting, that the Rowdies underwent a roster rebuild over the winter. The soccer universe has such a diverse base of talent that a rebuild doesn’t necessarily equate to a season devoid of winning. There’s no need to tank in soccer since there’s no draft in place to reward losing. The onus goes on the coach and scouting efforts to bring in the best players that will win in the coach’s system. 2019 will be Collins’ first real test of who he is as a coach. Did he and Cohen bring in the best available players for Collins’ system high press and high energy system?

As someone who loves sports betting odds as a barometer for the realistic financial suggestions of what teams are expected to fail or succeed, the Rowdies are at 50/1 odds to win the USL Championship according to William Hill.

According to advanced analytics community though, the Rowdies are in much better shape. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Rowdies rank as the ninth best team with a 69% chance of making the playoffs and 4% chance of winning the league. The most notable numbers on the chart are the offensive and defensive ratings where the Rowdies rank among the league’s best defensively and in the top half offensively. FiveThirtyEight has a detailed explanation for how their league and match prediction system works and it’s quite intricate. Reliable? We’ll have to find out. I’d doubt Vegas has comprehensive USL knowledge.

The Rowdies had a busy preseason featuring competition ranging from college teams to MLS clubs. The Rowdies opened with three wins against the Birmingham Legion, UCF, and Orlando City B.

The three tune-up preseason exhibition wins were followed up with live streamed games against two MLS clubs, DC United and Montreal Impact. The Rowdies lost to DC United 0–1, and drew with the Impact 0–0.

The Rowdies then made a quick trip north to Georgia and lost to USL League 1 team Tormenta (two goals from former Rowdie Alex Morrell) and beat the breaks off Georgia Southern the next day. Only a home match against USF is left.

Preseason soccer results are to be taken with a grain of salt, but all early indications point to the Rowdies having a ways to go to be a playoff contender in 2019. Cohen indicated as much in his interview. Coach Collins now has his team with his players so we can really see his coaching ability. Collins still deserves some leeway considering this will be his first full season as a head coach, but USL is the perfect proving ground for him.

The fact of the matter is, Rowdies fans should expect mistakes and hiccups early on. The important factor is that Collins grows as a coach, finds dependable and reliable talent on his roster, deciphers how best to use said talent, and transfers that into goals and wins as the season goes on.

Last season I went through the roster and attempted to pick starters at each position. It was much easier to do considering Cole, Schafer, Collins, and Hristov were just about locks to start the season. There are four locks to start this season that I would be shocked not to see in the first starting lineup. I’ll get to them in my positional breakdown. Starting now.

Goalkeeper

from US Soccer

Big John McCarthy. aka Lord Helmet.

No not that one. Well, not that one if you’re like me and you remember watching big UFC fights 5+ years ago. The Rowdies one big offseason splash, which was more of a jump in feet first and try not to get all the girls in the pool wet splash, was signing Philadelphia Union’s backup keeper John McCarthy.

McCarthy was beloved by Philly fans as the guy who was starting quality but buried behind Andre Blake on the depth chart. McCarthy gets an opportunity to prove his worth as the starting goalkeeper of the Rowdies.

McCarthy wears one of those ridiculous looking head straps that I do understand are for protection, they just still happen to look ridiculous. But if I get to make Spaceballs memes on Twitter during Rowdies games anytime McCarthy makes a big save, I’ll take what I can get. Also, McCarthy apparently plays Fortnite to which I say, get on Apex Legends, it’s a much better game.

McCarthy showed his ability to make clutch saves in his preseason bouts against DC and Montreal, earning the clean sheet against Montreal. With a solid rotation of defenders ahead of him, McCarthy could anchor a superb defensive unit for the Rowdies this season.

Macklin Robinson and Chris Konopka are the backups. McCarthy took a knock against Montreal but should hopefully be all systems go for game one against Memphis.

Predicted Starter:

Goalkeeper: John McCarthy (lock)

Defenders

There are three returners from last year’s squad, two of which were signed mid-season, and David Najem who spent last season on the shelf due to injury after only a handful of matches.

Diakite and Morad are the other returning defenders and both were phenomenal last season, including Diakite who has filled in Collins’ role as the heart and soul of the back line. If you want to go into the heart of the Rowdies defense, you’ll have to go through Diakite first. Diakite is composed and confident on the ball, not allowing pressure from attackers to faze him. Morad played well as a wing defender, being able to push the ball up the sidelines and into the channel. Morad was also a great one-on-one defender.

from Philadelphia Union

The Rowdies signed four new defenders including USL veteran Ryan Felix. Felix was also injured last season in his stint with San Antonio. Shawn Barry joins the Rowdies from Real Salt Lake City but was buried on the depth chart and didn’t see much playing time for their MLS team or USL counterpart.

Mohamed Kone may be the most intriguing signing as he comes with experience from leagues and teams no one has ever heard of yet seems slotted to be playing next to Diakite as one of three starting defenders.

The Rowdies also acquired Caleb Richards on loan from Norwich City after the two green and gold clubs made a partnership over the offseason. Richards is a 20-year old left back.

Although the Rowdies only have three defenders, Dominic Oduro is a defensive minded midfielder and Collins has run out defenders like Najem and Richards into the midfield. It’s possible Collins could have five defensive minded players on the field at a time. Compounding on the skill of Diakite and Kone, who has looked capable, the Rowdies come into 2019 with a massive advantage on the defensive side compared to last year’s struggling group.

Predicted Starters:

Centre Back: Diakite (lock), Kone, and Morad (maybe Barry)

Midfielders

The Rowdies defense will likely anchor the Rowdies in this season’s campaign, so the difference maker in results will fall on the shoulders of how cohesive the midfield is.

The premiere starter was last year’s breakout player Dominic Oduro called up from the PDL last season to be the Rowdies’ starting defensive midfielder. Backing up Oduro will be Sheffield loanee, Jordan Doherty. It will be critical this season for Oduro to be able to keep possession of the ball when under pressure and make accurate passes to his midfielders.

Two returners from last season are Leo Fernandes and Kwadwo Poku. Fernandes got off to a hot start last year before a number of inconsistent appearances and performances. Fernandes is a great dribbler and a winger who likes to make runs into the box hunting for goals. Poku is a good passer but struggled mightily last season to make an offensive impact in the final third. Poku didn’t possess a ‘run of the offense’ ability that was the role he was slated to fill when Schafer departed.

from Lemon City Live

Poku will face competition from new central midfielder Zach Steinberger who played a decade ago for Bradenton’s IMG Academy. Steinberger was bounced around the Houston Dynamo, Indy Eleven, and Jacksonville Armada where he saw his most significant playing time. Steinberger’s middle name according to Transfermarkt is ‘Wolfgang’. That tifo makes itself.

Andrew Tinari and Yann Ekra are the two offensive midfield signings that both come with a considerable amount of USL experience. Tinari is fresh off a full season of starts from New York Red Bulls II. Tinari has seen significant time playing this preseason. If he plays, Ekra will open this season with his 150th USL appearance. Ekra spent a significant amount of time with Harrisburg City, now known as Penn FC, before joining Charlotte last season. If there’s any guy I have my eyes on to be a key member of the Rowdies offense, it would be Ekra. He’s one of the older players on the team and is very familiar with the USL eastern conference.

Predicted Starters:

Defensive Midfielder: Oduro (lock)

Central Midfielders: Poku and Ekra

Outside Midfielders: Fernandes and Najem

Forwards

There’s seven forwards on the Rowdies roster and only two centre-forward spots in Collins’ 3–5–2 lineup. Two of the forwards, Siaj and Johnson, play on the wing so they may be stretched out as wingers in the midfield if either does see playing time. Collins did hint at Siaj being played more in a different role anyway though (undoubtedly he means as a forward), so that point may be mute.

The rest of the Rowdies attackers are all vying for the starting spots. The forwards are highlighted by Antoine Hoppenot, arguably the Rowdies most important signing this offseason. Hoppenot, like Ekra, has a wealth of USL experience but also plenty of MLS experience as well. Hoppenot is a proven playmaker and goal scorer with 21 career goals and 22 career assists in 89 USL matches. He has 7 goals and 6 assists at the MLS level in 68 matches. If he isn’t starting week one, you oughta throw me down a chimney.

from Fusion

Brandon Allen joins the Rowdies from Nashville and a legendary run at Red Bulls II. Allen is a proven goalscorer at the USL level and his consistency from season to season scoring wise is phenomenal. 10 goals in 2018, 9 in 2017, and 11 in 2016. Allen had 6 playoff goals in four games for Red Bulls II in their championship run. Notable: Some Nashville fans question Allen’s ability.

The two returners from last season are Leon Taylor and Sebastian Guenzatti. Taylor had a hot start when he joined the Rowdies mid-season before an unfortunate red card and injury derailed his season. Taylor showcased good leaping ability and athleticism. Guenzatti netted five goals last season, three coming in one game. Guenzatti has 7 USL goals in 34 appearances. Only one goal came against a playoff team and that was the 8th seeded Bethlehem Steel in 2017. For Guenzatti to prove he’s the better option over Hoppenot or Allen, he’ll have to score or make plays against top tier competition. I do believe the Rowdies organization and Collins are high on Guenzatti so it will be fascinating to see if he’s given the nod to start game one.

Malik Johnson and Jaime Siaj are wild cards because they have not been heard from or featured this preseason as far as the public knows. Both are young wing players. Johnson comes from Toronto’s Youth Academy and has also represented Canada’s U18 and U20 teams.

The Rowdies granted a roster spot to trialist Juan Tejada who has been featured often this preseason. Tejada also played with the touted IMG Academy. Tejada was most recently playing for the Lakeland Tropics PDL team where he saw some goal scoring and playmaking success. There’s a generous amount of hype from the Rowdies staff and fans alike so Tejada has a lot of support going into this season but he has stiff experienced competition above him.

Predicted Starters:

Centre Forwards: Hoppenot (lock) and Guenzatti (though I’d expect Allen or even Tejada may swipe starts from Guenzatti if he is the starter from the jump)