Here are some assessments of the economic impact on the UK economy, over the short (business cycle horizon) to long run.





Table 2 from Angus Armstrong and Jonathan Portes, “Commentary: The Economic Consequences of Leaving the EU,” National Institute Economic Review No. 236 May 2016 .

The IMF’s assessment came out in mid-June, and hence is not included in the above table; here’s the IMF’s view.





Table 1: from IMF, “United Kingdom-Special Issues,” IMF Country Report No. 16/169, June 17, 2016.

These are detailed model-based assessments, expressed relative to a baseline. What are investment bank economists predicting in terms of actual levels, rather than deviations?

Deutsche Bank does not forecast an outright contraction, expressed on a year-on-year basis.

Source: “Special Report: Navigating in post-referendum Europe,” Deutsche Bank Research, June 23, 2016.

Going forward, keep your eyes on Simon Wren-Lewis’s Mainly Macro blog.

Update, 8:15AM Pacific: Reader Manfred cites Minford. Here’s a survey of the academic studies which places in context where Minford’s estimates stand.