Pokhran is the area which witnessed Atal Ji’s firm resolve to make India a nuclear power and yet remain firmly comm… https://t.co/lF42dqH5sd — Rajnath Singh (@rajnathsingh) 1565943381000

NEW DELHI: Defence minister Rajnath Singh’s suggestion that India’s no-first-use nuclear posture may not be sacrosanct sparked intense speculation in the midst of heightened India-Pakistan tensions in the wake of the abrogation of special status to Jammu & Kashmir.The defence minister’s comment, which he also later tweeted, came at Pokhran — the site of India’s nuclear tests. Singh’s visit coincided with the first death anniversary of Atal Bihari Vajpayee , during whose term as PM the Pokhran-2 nuclear tests were conducted in 1998. The tests validated India’s nuclear deterrent.“Pokhran is the area which witnessed Atalji’s firm resolve to make India a nuclear power and yet remain firmly committed to the doctrine of ‘no first use’. India has strictly adhered to this doctrine. What happens in future depends on the circumstances,” Singh said in the presence of Army chief Gen Bipin Rawat.The absence of any clarification from the government lent weight to the view that the comments were well-considered unlike in the case of the late Manohar Parrikar, whose similar remarks in 2016 were “clarified” as his personal opinion. Parrikar was defence minister when he said at a book launch function, “Why do a lot of people say that India is for ‘no first use’. Why should I bind myself? I should say I am a responsible nuclear power and I will not use it irresponsibly.”It was, however, unclear whether Singh had indeed been “authorised” to make his comment or had overshot the mark. The comment was also seen as a response to aggressive rhetoric from Pakistan over the reading down of Article 370 and the creation of two Union territories of J&K and Ladakh. In the past, Pakistani ministers have often spoken of nuclear weapons fairly loosely.Singh’s statements might be a signal that India will not succumb to nuclear blackmail or the view in Pakistan that its nuclear arsenal will deter New Delhi from using its conventional forces. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has on more than one occasion said that Pakistan’s nuclear bluff has been called and the surgical strikes of 2016 and the bombing of Balakot demonstrated this.India is one of the few countries that have a declared policy of no first use of nuclear weapons, elaborated in some detail in 1999 after Pokhran-2. Singh stopped well short of describing the “circumstances” that might warrant a change in India’s nuclear posture but his tweet could be another version of the Parrikar sentiment or signal a more public reworking of the Indian nuclear policy .There has been a debate of sorts within the government about relaxing the no-first-use policy. The UPA government inserted the first “tweak” after Pakistan developed tactical nuclear weapons. India indicated that Pakistan’s use of tactical nuclear weapons would invite an overwhelming response. In BJP’s 2014 manifesto, a pledge to “study in detail India’s nuclear doctrine, and revise and update it to make it relevant to challenges of current times” set off discussion on the no-first-use policy. There was no reference to the nuclear doctrine in the 2019 manifesto.In 2010, then NSA Shivshankar Menon said prevailing situations would determine India’s nuclear posture. In a speech to the NDC, Menon said, “It is a result of our own history and experience, and we feel it best suited to our goals and situation. And it too is evolving, both consciously and unconsciously, as is the world around us. It is time now to consciously build our own concepts and strategic thinking, adapted to today’s realities and India’s environment, including on the role of force.”Pakistan has always maintained its nukes are intended for India and maintained a deliberate ambiguity over its red lines. It has refused to spell out what will provoke use of nuclear weapons, leaving it to the world to guess if this would be severe battlefield setbacks or imminent collapse of the Pakistani state. The uncertainty is intended to deter use of conventional force by India in response to its use of terror proxies.In 2016 and 2019, India’s use of conventional military power in response to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism drove a breach in Islamabad’s posture. If Singh made the statement in response to intelligence about Pakistan, that places the burgeoning conflict in a different sphere altogether.It also means India’s nuclear posture has become more dynamic, with the no-first-use policy no longer set in stone.Read this story in Marathi