

Michigan Presidential Primary Preference: Michigan Likely Republican

Primary Voters Feb 25-26

2012 Gingrich 8% Paul 15% Romney 35% Santorum 36% Other/Uncommitted * Undecided 6% Rick Santorum holds a slight lead heading into the Michigan Republican presidential primary. Santorum leads with 36% and is followed by Mitt Romney with 35%, Ron Paul with 15%, and Newt Gingrich with 8%. Santorum has lost 2 percentage points since a similar survey conducted February 21-22, 2012, while Romney has gained 1 percentage point. Romney now leads Santorum 38% to 37% among self-identified Republicans, followed by Gingrich with 11% and Paul with 9%. Among self-identified independents and Democrats, Santorum leads with 34%, followed by Romney with 30%, Paul with 25%, and Gingrich with 3%. Santorum leads Romney 36% to 35% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote in the February 28 primary, followed by Paul with 16% and Gingrich with 7%. Romney and Santorum are tied at 35% each among those saying they will probably vote, followed by Gingrich with 14% and Paul with 9%. Santorum leads with 42% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 27%, Gingrich with 13%, and Paul with 11%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 40%, followed by Santorum with 32%, Paul with 17%, and Gingrich with 5%. Santorum leads Romney 38% to 31% among men, followed by Paul with 18% and Gingrich with 9%. Romney leads Santorum 40% to 33% among women, followed by Paul with 11% and Gingrich with 7%. Comparisons to past surveys: Michigan Likely Republican

Primary Voters Feb 11-12

2012 Feb 15-16

2012 Feb 21-22

2012 Feb 25-26

2012 Gingrich 21% 10% 7% 8% Paul 12% 15% 12% 15% Romney 27% 32% 34% 35% Santorum 33% 37% 38% 36% Other 1% 1% 1% * Undecided 6% 5% 8% 6% Preference by party: Michigan Likely Republican

Primary Voters Republicans (63%) Independents (37%) Gingrich 11% 3% Paul 9% 25% Romney 38% 30% Santorum 37% 34% Other - 1% Undecided 5% 7% Preference by likely to vote: Michigan Likely Republican

Primary Voters Definitely - 10 (85%) Probably - 7-9 (15%) Gingrich 7% 14% Paul 16% 9% Romney 35% 35% Santorum 36% 35% Other - 2% Undecided 6% 5% Preference by Tea Party support: Michigan Likely Republican

Primary Voters Supporter (36%) Not/Undecided (64%) Gingrich 13% 5% Paul 11% 17% Romney 27% 40% Santorum 42% 32% Other - 1% Undecided 7% 5% Preference by sex: Michigan Likely Republican

Primary Voters Male (54%) Female (46%) Gingrich 9% 7% Paul 18% 11% Romney 31% 40% Santorum 38% 33% Other 1% - Undecided 3% 9% About this Survey - Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985. Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Michigan (377 self-identified Republicans, 163 self-identified independents, and 60 self-identified Democrats). Sample Dates: February 25-26, 2012 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. An "*" in the tables indicates responses of less than 1/2 of 1 percent. Question Wording: If the 2012 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote? Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2012 Republican presidential primary?