As of writing this, Trump has a 42.2 approval rating and a 52.9 disapproval. I know people get upset about the approval rating being anywhere above 0 but honestly, given the country he inherited from Obama, those numbers are PATHETIC. Ezra Klein writes “He’s playing a strong hand, poorly.”

3.8 percent unemployment and 42 percent approval. Is that “winning”? Another way to think about this question is to look at the last time the economy was at 3.8 percent unemployment amid a record stock market. That was in April of 2000, when Bill Clinton registered a 59 percent Gallup approval rating — 17 points above where Trump is now. The last time consumer sentiment was this high was January 2004, when Bush’s approval rating was 60 percent. “Trump’s poll numbers are probably 20 points below where a president would typically be with consumer sentiment as high as it is now,” says John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University who has done work benchmarking presidential approval to economic indicators.

So really, what we are seeing for Trump, and the Republicans, is the highest their numbers are likely to go anytime soon. This is as good as it gets. Everything is going their way and he can’t get above 42%.

And even with the great economic numbers leading to him having a higher rate than he deserves (although still pathetic), most of the forecasters have us as most likely to win the house and with a chance of winning the senate. For example → The Midterms Really Are Looking Good for Democrats

Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist with a historical bent, has some advice: Calm down. The Democrats’ chances to retake the House remain extremely high, she writes in a new piece, and those chances haven’t fallen much in recent months. Bitecofer argues that the conventional wisdom about the midterms is influenced too much by polls of all registered voters. Come November, many of them won’t actually vote. In particular, reliable Republicans are likely to vote at a low rate, and reliable Democrats at a relatively high one — as is normal when a Republican occupies the White House. As for swing voters, they don’t matter as much because there aren’t a huge number of them in today’s highly partisan atmosphere.

And this is with Trump at the highest he is likely to be!

people report that the #1 thing people report caring about is the economy. And the economy is likely to get worse (and quick) is the area where trump’s supporters live. For example: Chinese Tariffs Hit Trump Counties Harder

The fallout from President Donald Trump’s tariffs and China’s countertariffs—which formally went into effect on Friday—will have the greatest impact on the U.S. counties that voted Mr. Trump into office.

thus, this “trade war” is going to hurt them in November.

And trump keeps pushing his racist immigration policies as his best hope for November, even though it is actually an issue that will hurt them:

More people think Democrats are more effective at handling immigration overall, however. Thirty-eight percent of the Americans surveyed said the Democrats in Congress are likely to be more capable in handling the issue, as compared with the 30 percent who said the same of Trump. As the president makes the rounds across the country, he’s repeatedly associated immigrants with gang violence, advocated for more closed borders, and vocally championed his harsh tactics. It’s a strategy that could resonate with Trump’s base, while alienating Republicans and independents who are more moderate, experts told the Post.

To summarize — with the best economy he is likely to see, trump can’t get above the low 40s and we are predicted to best him and his crew in November. AND there is a lot of reason to think that the odds of us doing well in November will only increase.

Here are just some of the troubles coming for trump and co. before November:

Legal Troubles Are Coming For Trump Before November (including Mueller) and That Will Increase Our Chances of Victory

Why Trump’s inauguration money is a major part of Mueller’s Russia investigation

What happened at Donald Trump’s inauguration 18 months ago, and why does special counsel Robert Mueller appear to be so interested in it? These reports have broken in the months since former Trump aide Rick Gates agreed to a plea deal with Mueller’s team in exchange for his cooperation. That may not be a coincidence — Gates was heavily involved in planning the inauguration, with a Yahoo News report in 2016calling him the “shadow chair” of the event. Yet beyond just Russia, there have long been serious questions about the money behind Trump’s inauguration — and where, exactly, it went. Trump’s inaugural committee raised a truly astonishing $106.7 million, double the previous record set by Barack Obama’s 2009 inaugural. But what they did with it isn’t so clear. In a report for ProPublica and WNYC by Ilya Marritz earlier this year, the chair of George W. Bush’s second inauguration, Greg Jenkins, said he was baffled. “They had a third of the staff and a quarter of the events and they raise at least twice as much as we did,” he said. “So there’s the obvious question: Where did it go? I don’t know.” For now, whether this was sloppy financial mismanagement or something shadier, is unclear. But if there is anyone who might know where much of the money went, it is Rick Gates. And whatever he knows, Robert Mueller now knows too.

Manafort Kept in Solitary 23 Hours a Day to ‘Guarantee His Safety,’ Lawyer Says

Paul Manafort is being kept in solitary confinement in a Virginia jail in order to “guarantee his safety,” his lawyer said in court documents filed this week. “He is locked in his cell for at least 23 hours per day (excluding visits from his attorneys),” defense attorney Kevin Downing wrote.

Mueller fights Manafort's bid for release from Virginia jail

Special counsel Robert Mueller's prosecutors are urging a federal appeals court to reject former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort's bid to be released on bail as he prepares for two criminal trials, including one set to begin later this month. In a filing Thursday, Mueller's team urged the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit not to disturb a lower court's order last month jailing Manafort over charges that he tampered with witnesses related to the cases against him.

flip flip flip!!

Cohen Tells Friends: Trump Won’t Pardon Me

Michael Cohen has reportedly told friends that he’s pessimistic about the chances of receiving a pardon from his longtime client and friend President Donald Trump. The attorney—currently under criminal investigation in New York—has not yet been charged with any wrongdoing, but has told his friends he doesn’t think the President will ride to his rescue. “I brought up the pardon, and he said, ‘I don’t think so. I just don’t think so,’” Cohen’s friend recounted to a CNN reporter, adding: “He’s certain in his mind that he has been dismissed.” A second friend told CNN that they have discussed the possibility of a pardon, and that it is becoming increasingly clear that Cohen is not “counting on it,” adding: “His mindset is of someone who is operating under the assumption that he is not getting that, though of course he doesn’t know one way or the other.” In a recent interview with ABC News, Cohen said his “first loyalty” was with his family and his country—not the President.

flip flip flip!!

Election News that Suggests Victory For Us in November:

Harry Reid's 'machine' may help Democrats take the Senate

What if Trump’s Nativism Actually Hurts Him?

President Trump’s short-lived family separation policy extended the hard line on immigration he promoted during his presidential campaign. Many analysts believe that this strategy helped him win the election by politicizing latent nativist sentiment among white Americans. Contrary to received wisdom, however, the immigration issue did not play to Mr. Trump’s advantage nearly as much as commonly believed. According to our analysis of national survey data from the American National Election Studies (a large, representative sample of the population of the United States), Hillary Clinton did better in the election than she would have if immigration had not been so prominent an issue. In fact, a liberal backlash seems to have contributed to Mrs. Clinton’s victory in the popular vote count. it seems possible that highlighting immigration may no longer be an effective political strategy for the Republican Party. This may be the case for two related reasons. First, xenophobic whites have long been reliable Republican voters, whereas less intolerant whites have tended to waver in their presidential voting. Second… In 2016 (and 2017 and 2018), Mr. Trump dispensed with dog whistles in favor of a more explicit strategy of cultural confrontation, which prompted — and may continue to prompt — a more powerful liberal counterreaction. For these reasons, we think that Mr. Trump’s explicit appeals to intolerance are likely to help Democrats more than Republicans.

Women Might Save America Yet

Shortly after Trump was elected, worried citizens confronted their representatives at raucous town halls all over the country. But as it became clear that Republicans didn’t want to listen to anti-Trump constituents, grass-roots activism has turned from protesting Republicans to the quieter work of replacing them. But it’s not just Congress. The Resistance has burrowed deep into electoral politics at every level, from school board on up. These days, both Gabriel and her husband are Democratic committeepersons, the party’s elected neighborhood representatives. She’s involved in her community in a way she never had been before. Her social life revolves around political organizing, which is what makes that organizing sustainable amid the outrage fatigue of Trump’s presidency. “My husband and I always joke, Donald Trump really is making America great again, just not the way he thought,” she said. “Because I’ve never seen this many people mobilized to be part of anything.”

Our own NiftyWriter has a great story about how Tennessee can’t revoke drivers licences from people who can’t pay fines.

The case was about the state confiscating driver’s licenses of people who had been unable to pay court costs when appearing for various misdemeanors. Losing their licenses severely impacted their ability to find or keep employment which would have enabled them to pay later. In some cases, desperate people would drive even without a license in order to work, and when caught driving without a license would then face further court costs in a terrible cycle which seemed almost designed to keep people indigent (and also disenfranchised). So, it’s great news that this case was won in favor of people getting their licenses back if they lost them only because of inability to pay court costs, but the larger significance of this decision could be a game changer. It could have enormous implications for civil rights and the effort to stop voter suppression. It is the first decision of its kind challenging these policies and it could potentially set a national precedent. In fact, there is a case up before the NC court right now (brought by ACLU, naturally — if you can, donate here).

All The Allies We Have Are Going to Help Us Win

Can the A.C.L.U. Become the N.R.A. for the Left?

spoiler alert: Yes

The suit filed on behalf of families separated at the border was just the latest action against the administration by the civil liberties group. I recalled a conversation we had there 16 months earlier, a few days after President Trump issued his first travel ban. The A.C.L.U.’s response to the ban had been immediate and wide-ranging. The new president had taken decisive action, and the courts and citizens rising up in protest had beaten him back. There had been, as with the crowd at the Women’s March a week earlier, a feeling of power and possibility. “That’s the model,” Romero said when I met him that next week. “That’s the way we’re going to survive this. Pressure in the courts, pressure from the public. We have to keep him in the pincers. It’s the only way.” In the 15 months that followed the election, the A.C.L.U.’s membership went from 400,000 to 1.84 million. Online donations in the years before averaged between $3 and $5 million annually. Since then, it has raised just shy of $120 million. “Until Trump,” Romero told me, “most of our support came from people who have been with us since we challenged Nixon. Now we’re kind of cool. Cool’s not a word generally associated with us.” A big chunk of the money that the A.C.L.U. has raised has gone toward hiring more lawyers, both in the national office and throughout its network of 54 affiliates. Since Trump took office, the A.C.L.U. has taken 170 “Trump-related legal actions.” There have been formal calls for investigation, administrative and ethics complaints and requests for documents under the Freedom of Information Act. There have also been 83 lawsuits, more than at any other equivalent time in its history — in defense of immigrants and transgender people and abortion rights and free speech and voting rights and access to birth control.

A Conservative Group Is Using Ronald Reagan to Attack President Trump's Immigration Policies

A conservative group is running a Fourth of July ad using footage of former President Ronald Reagan to repudiate President Donald Trump’s immigration policies. The ad, paid for by the Becoming American Initiative, uses audio of a Reagan speech in which he praised immigrants and their contributions to American society, along with footage and photographs of the Statue of Liberty and various immigrants through the years. “They didn’t ask what this country could do for them, but what they could do to make this refuge the greatest home of freedom in history,” Reagan says in the footage. “They brought with them courage and the values of family, work and freedom. Let us pledge to each other that we can make America Great Again.”

Tom Arnold says ‘Apprentice’ outtakes prove just how racist — and incompetent — Trump really is Comedian Tom Arnold is on a mission to bring down President Donald Trump, and he recognizes the absurdity of the situation. The fringe celebrity is hoping to reveal outtake recordings from “The Apprentice,” which Trump hosted and Arnold appeared on as a contestant, that he believes would do politically fatal damage to the president, reported Politico. “The second he says my name, we’re going to f*cking go in to [‘Apprentice’ producer] Mark Burnett and he has to open it up for me,” Arnold said. “Because I know exactly the episodes. I know exactly what I’m going to do.” Arnold has claimed outtake footage shows Trump using racial slurs and other offensive language, but the former “Apprentice” contestant said the president’s incompetence was on full display in those recordings. “My whole goal, really, is to get one 12-hour day of the boardrooms shoot, because if America could see that, they’d know what’s going on in the White House right now, how incompetent the guy is,” Arnold said. “That’s really my goal. It’s not to hear one N-word — and by the way, you’d hear much worse than that.”

The Destruction of Trump’s Biggest Cheerleaders is Going To Help Us Win

Powerful GOP Rep. Jim Jordan accused of turning blind eye to sexual abuse as Ohio State wrestling coach

Rep. Jim Jordan, the powerful Republican congressman from Ohio, is being accused by former wrestlers he coached more than two decades ago at Ohio State University of failing to stop the team doctor from molesting them and other students. Jim Jordan, who has made a name for himself in Congress by grilling investigators probing alleged collusion by the Trump campaign with the Russians, is among the witnesses expected to be questioned by the law firm that Ohio State hired to conduct the probe into Strauss’ misconduct, officials involved with the investigation said.

this is not the end of this story for Jordan. I don’t think he is going to be able to weather this storm. I will be glad to see him go down.

Pruitt Was Told to Resign in Call From White House, Sources Say

Pruitt didn’t want to leave his post and was described as being devastated that he had to resign, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing a personnel matter.

Trump was not happy that he FINALLY had to let Pruitt go. Why? Because:

x One important point - this was not just coming from Pruitt, the idea of him as AG. Trump aides want to separate the president from it now, but this wasn't a one-sided thing. https://t.co/ji7Ocm5EzV — Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) July 6, 2018

Trump thought of Pruitt as a “get out of jail free” card that he could play at any time to put Pruitt in as AG and have him effectively end the investigation into him. Since he already had confirmation for a cabinet appointment, he could have done it without senate approval. Now that option is gone. Sorry (not sorry)!

and speaking of losing cheerleaders, even the Heritage Foundation is trying to remind him what country he serves:

x Things to remember before @realDonaldTrump travels to Europe:



-Russia is the aggressorÃ¢ÂÂUkraine is the victim

-Crimea belongs to Ukraine

-NATO & US troops in Europe serve our national interests

-Europeans must spend more on defense

-Putin's track record shows he can't be trusted — Heritage Foundation (@Heritage) July 5, 2018

The Section in Which I Use a Weed Metaphor to Explain Why All Hope is Not Lost:

first, a little from this article: Why the death of democracy may be overhyped

Clearly there’s been some democratic backsliding in some countries, and we shouldn’t be complacent about that, but at the same time there are other countries that have been moving forward. For instance, since about 1999, the number of democracies in countries in Africa has doubled, according to one major democracy indicator. So we should try to see the whole picture, rather than focusing on what’s happening in the US and in various European countries. And I also think we need to distinguish between what has already happened and what might happen in the future. We can be concerned about the possibility of future deterioration, but we also need to see the current state of play objectively and not overreact. none of this is to say that I’m not concerned about the trends in the US — I absolutely am. And the 68 percent of Americans who think democracy is getting weaker may be right, but that doesn’t mean that democracy is collapsing and that we’re going to wake up in an authoritarian state. democracy is far more resilient than many believe. Since democracy began, people have been warning of its imminent collapse, and yet it has continuously spread across the world. So we should keep this history in mind, and not panic needlessly.

This really resonated with me. I see a lot of people looking at what is happening and assuming that this is an inevitable slide towards Gilead. It isn’t. We need to be aware that what is happening is BAD and that it CAN lead to even worse things, but that doesn’t mean it necessarily WILL end that way.

Think about it this way: remember all the propaganda about pot as a gateway drug? People looked at the data that almost everyone who ends up doing heroin or other dangerous drugs starts with pot. So they called it a dangerous “gateway” drug and argued that it should be illegal because it will lead to other awful things.

And while it is true that most people who do harder drugs start with pot, the vast majority of people who smoke pot never go on to those much more dangerous drugs. Pot became terrifying to people because they saw it a sign someone was on the road to ruin, which makes sense — it does come first on the road to heroin, but pot doesn’t HAVE to lead to ruin. In fact, it doesn’t usually lead to ruin.

You can understand our current situation that way. If you wanted to look to what can lead to a dystopic Gilead ending to our country, Trump as president and a loaded supreme court would be an awfully good start. But that doesn’t mean that this DEFINITELY is the start to that. This end of this story has not yet been written and **we have a role in writing the next part**.

I am not trying to minimize how bad things currently are and our desperate need for all of us to do what we can (see next section). Instead, I want to make sure that we are not so paralyzed with fear of a future that many very well not come that we stop trying and instead curl up in fear at home. That is not helpful AND it is not necessary.

The ending to this story that we are all writing may very well be fantastic, hopeful, and amazing. Let’s keep doing the work we need to get us all there!

The Section in Which I Do Some Yelling:

I have been seeing some things that are worrying me. I see some people being super negative about our chances in November because of Russian interference. I see people arguing that November doesn’t even matter, that we should give up because the Republicans are working with the Russians and the fix is already in.

Yes, the possibility of the Russians changing votes or removing people from voter lists is terrifying, but first, in order for those things to be undetectable, they have to happen in small numbers. That means that if we bring out the people and really WIN this thing they can’t take it from us (if that even is their plan). And we have the numbers to do just that.

Second, that isn’t the main tool of the Russians. You know how the Russians won in 2016? Dividing the Democrats. Lying about our leaders. Getting us to stay home.

We cannot let the Russians, or anyone else, divide us! I already hear people complaining: “The left of the party is picking people who can’t win and dooming us.” “The party establishment is picking candidates who aren’t exciting and dooming us.” “The Democrats aren’t much better than the Republicans.”

This is NOT the time for any of that.

If people ranging from Bernie Sanders to George freakin’ Will can agree that we need to get Democrats elected in November, we should all be united as well.

Yes, the odds are stacked against us with the Russians and gerrymandering and voter suppression, but does that mean we should quit? Was MLK like “Wow, with segregation laws and voter suppression and how poor most of us are, we can’t ever win. I am just going to give up!” NO HE DID NOT. Were the British like “Wow, Hitler has already taken most of Europe. We might as well just hand over the Island.” NOT THEY WERE NOT. Was Harriet Tubman like “You know, Canada isn’t perfect either. Maybe I should just leave the slaves where they are.” NO SHE WAS NOT.

Things are hard; things are scary; things are not certain; and yet we persevere, because that is the way forward.

Need any more reason to push as hard as you can for Democratic candidates? How about this → Maxine Waters could be a serious problem for Trump if Democrats win the House

If President Donald Trump doesn’t like Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), he really won’t like her if Democrats take back the House in the 2018 midterm elections. T Waters is currently the ranking member of the committee, which is charged with overseeing the financial services industry, including banks, insurers, and housing. As ranking member, she’s pushed for probes into the financial ties of Trump and those around him, including his relationship with Deutsche Bank and, perhaps, Russia. Her hands have been tied on taking action because she’s not chair, but if Democrats take the House and she is, that changes. She’ll have the ability to issue subpoenas, call hearings, and request depositions, including regarding the money trails surrounding Trump.

Now doesn’t that sound amazing!?!

I know a lot of you are already working hard for us for November (THANK YOU). Read this amazing story of the impact of the Postcards to Voters movement on a Russian-red district in Texas. It will warm your heart to all the amazing ways that you are already making a difference for our country.

Keep at it people! We are not on an inevitable path to destruction. We have not lost our country for good. We do have great candidates to work for. And with hard work and dedication **we** can be the heroes we need to survive. Heck, we already ARE those heroes. Let’s do this!

Yosef52 has amazing ideas for how to get involved in this diary. Take some time to read it, pick just one thing that sounds great to you, and do it! It’ll make you feel great!

I feel so proud and so lucky to be in this with all of you!! ❤️ ✊ ❤️