A question of maths - preview

Monday, 15th Dec 2014 00:14 by Clive Whittingham QPR are posting alarming numbers away from home prior to Monday night's trip to Everton. How much longer can their current approach to road trips continue and still have the sums add up come May? Everton (13th) v Queens Park Rangers (18th) Premier League >>> Monday 14 December, 2014 >>> Kick Off 20.00 >>> Goodison Park, Liverpool There’s something so eccentrically British about the experience of sitting down to watch Soccer Saturday on Sky Sports. The obvious flaw is that this is a programme about goals that isn’t allowed to show you any goals. This has been tried before, when ITV attempted to carry on with Saint and Greavsie after the dawn of the Premier League with Sky holding all the live rights and BBC taking the highlights to the top division. It was like watching your granddads team up for Christmas Day charades. It was not a conspicuous success and Greavsie played out the rest of his ITV contract, bizarrely, by hosting a daytime talkshow which, we were asked to believe, was being broadcast from his kitchen. “Come round Greavsie’s gaff…” went a jolly, blokey theme tune. A particular highlight was when he introduced Vicki Michelle, at the height of her ‘Allo ‘Allo fame, as “Ricky”. Only the British would come up with a rule whereby a certain kick off time on a certain day of the week – 15.00 Saturday – is considered to be sacred in some way and must be protected by allowing no other football to be shown live at that time, less it reduce the attendances at grounds up and down the country. In Spain, Italy and elsewhere all games are available for broadcast at all times and in the US there’s a ‘Red Zone’ facility for the Sunday NFL that takes you to whichever game looks most likely to bring you a touch-down in the next play. Good on the British for that. But then only the British would then say it’s then ok to shift half the FA Cup Third Round – the most historic and traditional knock-out trophy in the world game – to weird and wonderful kick-off times, Wimbledon v Liverpool, a particularly wonderful pairing, now Monday night at 19.55. Everton v West Ham on a Tuesday. A Tuesday? The FA Cup Third Round? Exeter City fans sent up to Warrington on a Friday night. The FA Cup, incidentally, is sponsored by Budweiser. Not to mention the poor QPR fans being forced to trek all the way up to Liverpool on a Monday night if they want to actually go and support their team this week, at a time of year when everybody has notoriously got loads of time and money to spare for that sort of thing. But showing goals in games taking place at 15.00 on a Saturday? Not on our watch mate. And so we end up with this weird concept where four ageing men sit behind a desk watching the football we’re not allowed to see and try to describe it to us. In the case of former Southampton star Mat Le Tissier, by actually describing it to us. In the cases of ex Liverpool gobshite Phil Thompson and old Arsenal shagger Charlie Nicholas, by yelling at us, and interrupting anybody else who may be talking at a key moment by bellowing “CHAAAAAAANCE….. GOOOOOOOAL”. In the case of Paul Merson, by trying to saddle up enough brain power through a fog of chemical abuse over the years to be able to pronounce the name of the player who has just scored. Out and about, a collection of former pros and journalists, stuffed into a spare seat in the crowd from where they can tell us that “somebody has scored, but I’m not sure who it is”. Non-football people would tell you this is all a bit mad. As, probably, is sitting with arse cheeks clenched for two hours, working a set of worry-beads over in your hand fretting about other results in mid-December when the league runs through until May. Southampton’s missed penalty at Burnley followed by Ashley Barnes’ late winner becomes like a death in the family; Leicester’s home defeat by Manchester City a religious experience. West Brom win bad. West Brom keep Alan Irvine in charge for next week’s game at QPR good. CHAAAAAANCE….. GOOOOOOAL. QPR know what they have to do this season regardless of what anybody else does. They need 42 points – possibly fewer but 42 points has almost always been enough before – and that leaves them requiring 28 from 23 matches remaining. Seven wins and seven draws would do it. It’s the only way I’ve found to comfort myself when writing about QPR away games. Eight played, eight lost, two goals scored, 18 goals conceded, it’s just tripping off the finger tips now – each away match just add one more match, one more defeat and two more goals to the against column. But the fixture list has been uniquely difficult for QPR, sending them to almost all of the top sides and nobody from the lower half of the table. Everton, who finished fifth last year, currently lie thirteenth and will be the lowest ranked side Rangers have travelled to this season. I get the impression Harry Redknapp has, privately, written a lot of these games off. Certainly at Man Utd, West Ham and Spurs QPR just didn’t look bothered and at Newcastle and Swansea the big idea was to do little more than sit in and see if the R’s could bore their way to a 0-0. His claim in his weekly press conference that he has “tried everything” is a bit like giving your broken fridge a bit of a kick and then throwing your hands up and giving it up as hopeless if it doesn’t turn back on. It’s all in stark contrast to the adventurous approach at home and I just wonder whether there is some solidity to this “bonus game” idea that Redknapp and Joey Barton have allowed to slip out in interviews from time to time. I think back to last season where Rangers played without a striker at Watford, and with Luke Young at centre half at Blackburn. It strikes me that Redknapp isn’t afraid to just toss games aside, and may well have done so with a lot of these more difficult away games with the idea being we focus on the winnable home games for now and try to pick up the road points after Christmas when the trips get “easier”. A risky strategy, but one that has so far brought four home victories and some decent performances at Loftus Road. It’s particularly galling if you’re one of those mentalists who goes to all the away matches to see QPR playing like this, and I suspect there’ll be a few cross words spoken late on Monday night and into Tuesday if QPR once again offer nothing by way of attacking threat and slip to defeat in the sort of tactical shemozzle and something-nil scoreline we’ve seen in most away games this season. Everton are in poor form and have had obvious weaknesses in their personnel and system exposed in recent weeks. They were booed off here last time out against Hull so there may be a crowd ready to turn a bit restless if QPR can frustrate Martinez’s team or maybe even – brace, brace – score a goal of their own. There are points to be won here if QPR play to their full potential. But then the meek surrender at Swansea was sandwiched by two home wins and if QPR do the same again in the next fortnight – beating West Brom and Palace at home while losing at Everton and Arsenal – I guess many would take that. Unpleasant and dull to watch in fixtures like this in the meantime mind. Links >>> QPR’s hat trick of Everton hat tricks – history >>> Martinez’s difficult second album – opposition profile >>> Class of 93 – podcast >>> Defensive frailties behind Everton stumble – interview >>> Swarbrick’s first QPR game for a year – referee >>> Travel Guide QPR’s Tommy Smith wheels away to celebrate the only goal of this fixture back at the start of the 2011/12 season in front of the travelling QPR fans. Playing their first Premier League away match for 15 years, and fresh from an opening day hammering at Loftus Road by Bolton, Rangers scrapped out a 1-0 victory at Goodison Park with a backs-to-the-wall effort that manager Neil Warnock rated as one of the best of his career. Monday Team News: Charlie Austin, who has scored QPR’s only two goals away from home so far this season, sits this one out with a one match suspension for the first red card of his senior career in the win over Burnley a week ago. Other than that Rangers have all the same players available to them as they did a week ago. Sandro remains sidelined by knee troubles, Steven Caulker is available despite cracking his head at the Christmas party/Sunday lunch last week. Everton have a headache at the base of their midfield whether Gareth Barry is suspended for collecting his fifth yellow card of the season against Manchester City last time out and James McCarthy faces a late fitness test having not played since November 27. Darron Gibson will also be checked late along with striker Steven Naismith. However defender John Stones, a big miss during Sulvain Distin’s dip in form, has recovered from the ankle injury he suffered two months ago at Man Utd and may feature sooner than initially anticipated. Elsewhere: Not a terrific weekend for QPR, who play last obviously on a Monday night which is terribly considerate of the television companies considering the distance the away fans have to travel and the close proximity to Christmas. But then I doubt this is a “game that matters” in the grand Sky scheme of things. One of those took place earlier today when Louis Van Gaal beat The Men of Liverpool together collectively as one whole together always in unity 3-0. Penny for Alex McCarthy’s thoughts after the dropping of Simon Mignolet today – the promising young stopper joined QPR ahead of Liverpool in the summer presumably because he felt he had better first team prospects at Loftus Road. Tottenham won a fourth away game of the season in similar fashion to the previous three – scoring in the final minute at Swansea. Big Racist John and the Boys had a dive about against Tigers Tigers Rah Rah Rah and referee Chris Foy was pretty good at spotting the cheating and dishing out cards – booking Willian and Costa – until Gary Cahill did it in the penalty area when another yellow would have meant a red and a proper message and deterrent. Bottled that one naturally. Arsenal stuck four through Newcastle, including a chipped penalty kick from Santi Carzorla against young goalkeeper Jak Alnwick on his full debut right at the end. Poor form from the Spaniard. Arsenal, you may recall, not nearly so brave and swaggering last week against Meticulous Mark and the Boys. Did somebody say flat track bullies? Stoke followed last week’s success with a 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. Of the games that QPR care about, Burnley were the big winners as Southampton continue their inevitable slide down the table with a fourth straight defeat at Turf Moor. Could have been different had Tadic scored a second half penalty but this inevitable slide has been inevitable for some time and will inevitably continue. Leicester remain bottom after a routine 1-0 home loss to Manchester City. West Brom beat Paul Lambert’s terribly exciting Aston Villa side 1-0 – actually good news for Rangers who avoid the prospect of new manager syndrome when the Baggies comes to Shepherd’s Bush on Saturday. Big Fat Sam’s Big Fat Brand of Entertaining Football ran into Big Fat Phil Dowd at Sunderland – his disgraceful decision to award the home side a first half penalty meant the Hammers had to settle for a 1-1 draw which keeps them fourth. Referee: Lancashire official Neil Swarbrick, who has never been overly kind to QPR since being promoted to the Premier League with us three years ago, takes charge of his first R’s game in almost a year on Monday night. His last game with Rangers was at Watford last Christmas where Harry Redknapp fielded an adventurous 4-6-0 formation in a desperately awful 0-0 draw. For Swarbrick’s recent stats and full QPR case-file please click here. Form Everton: Roberto Martinez’s men have only won twice at home this season, drawing three and losing two of the other five – half as many victories as QPR have managed at Loftus Road. They’ve conceded 13 times on their own patch which is the joint worst record in the league along with bottom-placed Leicester and West Brom. They’ve beaten Villa and West Ham here but Arsenal, Swansea and Hull escaped with a point and Palace and Chelsea both won. If you include Everton’s Europa League games the picture is a little rosier – Wolfsburg (4-1) and Lille (3-0) were both swept aside before Krasnodar won a dead-rubber last week. This will be the sixth league game Everton have played after a European fixture this season – albeit on a Monday rather than a Sunday this week – and so far they’ve won one, drawn one and lost three. They’re currently on a run of one win in six in the league, and no win in four in all comps. QPR have been a bogey side for Everton during the Premier League era – the Toffees have won just three of 12 meetings since the league formed in 1992 and the R’s have won three of their six trips to Goodison in the league in that time. QPR: Well this is all fairly well documented. At home, QPR the ninth best record in the league with four wins, two draws and two defeats. You have to go up to eighth placed Swansea to find a team with more than four home wins, and Manchester City in second have only won five on their own patch. Leicester, Hull and Sunderland haven’t won four home games between them in the league. Away from home, different story: eight losses from eight games in all competitions with 18 goals conceded and just two scored. Only Bolton in 1995/96 have lost more (nine) consecutive away games at the start of a Premier League season than QPR. With Everton and Arsenal up next on the road, that record could well be under threat. Half of QPR’s 16 league goals have been scored by Charlie Austin who is suspended for this game, and remains the only Rangers player to score a goal away from home so far this season. Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion WestonSuperR tells us… “I noticed that Clive recently suggested a ‘copy&paste’ for all his away match reports and I am thinking along the same lines with my predictions section. It’s all getting a little boring and thoroughly depressing; my suggestion is to really go for it, 442 with Zamora and Vargas getting a chance to play in his preferred position up top. Although this positive approach probably won’t be enough to win the match I do think we could cause Everton a few problems. “The two recent home matches have seen us secure maximum points but they haven’t done too much to inspire a huge degree of confidence that we can transport these results to matches on the road, I think Leicester and especially Burnley could feel a little aggrieved to have left Loftus Road with nothing at all. Our patchy form combined with how dreadful we have been on the road this season makes it near impossible to make a case for us picking up anything on Monday night, when you consider we have no Austin as well then I suggest if you really believe we can win then get to the bookies quickly as nice odds are available. I’ll be sticking with the usual though…” John’s Prediction: Everton 2-0 QPR. No Scorer LFW’s Prediction; Everton 2-0 QPR. No Scorer The Twitter @loftforwords

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AgedR added 07:34 - Dec 15

I expect us to get beat by something nil too, but, it is an odd one this. With slightly improved performances away and slightly worse performances at home we would probably be getting more draws and fewer wins, with the net resulting points being less.



I think we'll give anyone a game at home and we should have a more realistically winnable set of away fixtures after Arsenal.



I'm staying cautiously optimistic until we start losing our "six pointers" at home. 0

ShotKneesHoop added 08:26 - Dec 15

I'd love to see the Presser for this game, is / was there one? 0

QPRski added 09:26 - Dec 15

I really do not understand why we have such a difference in attitude and performance home and away. To date we behave as if we were asked to play a totally different game away from home.



Is it too much to hope for a point, or even a win? Perhaps the absence of Charlie Austin may create a suprising and efficient new formation? Perhaps pure statistical chance may come to our aid? We can always "hope" .... but I've predicted with my head and gone for a 2-0 defeat, although I sincerely hope I will be wrong!

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HastingsRanger added 10:12 - Dec 15

Clive, I do enjoy your observations on Sky and their sports desk football, especially the 'somebody has scored' reference.



The different approach to away games seems puzzling - since it is about damage limitation, so there will not be any 'loss of confidence'. At what scoreline does a loss of confidence kick in, presumably not 0-4!



My biggest concern is that other teams in our mini-league pull off the odd point from their 'bonus games', whereas we just do not. And this failure obviously puts bigger pressure on the 6 pointers, as a draw just will not do.



Given the turnaround on the fixtures in the latter half of the season, will we see attacking displays away and parking the bus at home?



All said, I hope for those at the game tonight, there is some attempt to press up field, rather than lamely sitting back.



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BrisbaneR added 11:01 - Dec 15

So....we're about to break a record for consecutive away losses (or match it at least), the only bloke to have scored a goal for us away from home this season isn't playing and absolutely everyone expects us to lose to nil.

If that isn't the perfect recipe for a win to the R's I don't know what is.

Expecting the unexpected...Vargas to be the man....COYR's... 0

TacticalR added 13:06 - Dec 15

All we are saying is...give us a goal. 0

Burnleyhoop added 18:53 - Dec 15

With Jagielka and Distan the donkey at the back, if this isn't ripe for some pace and trickery up top, I don't know what is. Get the line up right with a positive approach and we could have them rocking. Time for Philips or Hoilett to finally step up with Vargas leading the attack. Cum on u Rrrrsss. 0

Burnleyhoop added 19:29 - Dec 15

Just seen the line up. One of the few occasions I have been happy with it. An attacking line up that sets out with serious intent to take the game to Everton, with two wingers and Fer in his preferred Central position. This is it boys, time to deliver on too many empty promises. 0

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