Sam Amick

USA TODAY Sports

The circus known as NBA free agency is still five months away, but there is an opening act to that annual show that has been ongoing for quite some time now: the scouting process.

With every performance of this 2015-16 season, the free-agents-to-be offer more evidence of their worth – or lack thereof. Even with the cash infusion that is coming this summer – a $22 million spike to the salary cap that will put it at a historic level of $89 million – front office executives must have their intel in order by the time July 1 rolls around.

Yet of all the players who fit that bill, from Kevin Durant to Anderson Varejao, there may not be a more perplexing free agency case than that of Dwight Howard. The Houston Rockets big man has a player option for next season worth $23.2 million, though he is widely expected to opt out in pursuit of another long-term maximum-salary deal. And therein lies the question: is the 30-year-old Howard worth the max that would start at approximately $31 million annually?

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The answer, as always, depends on which team you’re talking to. But quantifying Howard’s worth is tricky, not only because of what playing with James Harden in a three-pointer heavy system has done to his offensive production (14.4 points and 8.6 field goal attempts per game; both the second lowest of his career) but because of the reality that faces big men at his age.

He’s a 30-year-old with a harrowing health history the past few years, from back problems that began in the summer of 2012 and caused him to miss the latest preseason to knee problems that, most recently, caused him to play just 41 games in the 2014-15 campaign. The “Superman” version of Howard, that dominant force who once averaged 22.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game with the Orlando Magic in the 2010-11 season, is clearly gone.

Howard deemed this discussion nonsense in training camp, declaring to reporters that “Y’all acting like I’m going to retire … I got about a good 10 years left in me.” It’s the right message to send if you’re in his shoes, a way to ease concerns about his uncertain future and insist that this is the same guy who won three Defensive Player of the Year awards and has played in eight All-Star games (though he wasn't selected for the Toronto festivities later this month). Yet predictably, the skepticism remains among many NBA decision makers who make these kinds of calls.

According to a person with knowledge of the Rockets’ strategy, they still see Howard as a vital part of their core, want to re-sign him and have no plans of trading him before the Feb. 18 deadline. Specifically, the person refuted a recent New York Daily News report indicating there were Howard trade talks with the Rockets and Boston Celtics. The person spoke to USA TODAY Sports on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation.

But with Howard widely expected to demand the max, it puts the Rockets in quite the quandary. They would clearly prefer to do a more reasonable deal to keep him, one that doesn’t have him making approximately $40.5 million at the age of 35 in his 17th season (2020-21) – especially if they have a chance at landing Kevin Durant. The 27-year-old Oklahoma City Thunder star is the biggest fish in the free agency sea this summer, and the Rockets – who traded for his pal and former Thunder sixth man, Harden, in Oct. 2012 – are expected to make a serious run at the former MVP. They are slated to have approximately $45.5 million in salary cap space, meaning something has to give if there’s any hope of a Harden-Howard-Durant union in the works.

Another team that has long been tied to Howard, the Dallas Mavericks, is known to have no interest in giving Howard a max-salary deal. That could always change, of course, but it’s noteworthy considering the lay of the land: the Mavericks have a center in Zaza Pachulia who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, two other starters who can become free agents (small forward Chandler Parsons has a player option worth $16 million; point guard Deron Williams has a player option worth $5.6 million) and a restricted free agent in third-year forward Dwight Powell.

Parsons, it should be noted, played a significant role in the recruitment of Howard to Houston before his surprising exit in the summer of 2014 (he signed a three-year, $46 million deal as a restricted free agent that the Rockets chose not to match). And while the max money factor is clearly a concern for the Mavericks’ decision makers, Parsons told USA TODAY Sports recently that the friendship between him and Howard has been rekindled and he would welcome the chance to play with him again.

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“For sure,” Parsons said. “I’m talking to him (routinely), obviously, and we share the same agent with Dan Fegan … Obviously I have a really close relationship with Dwight and one year wasn’t enough playing with him in Houston. I was a big reason why he went there, so I’ll have to revisit that when the time is appropriate. The relationship I had with him, and making him feel comfortable, that was big (in Houston).

“We still talk all the time … We’re friends, on and off the court. And I don’t just do it because he’s a free agent. It’s just a relationship we’ve built over the years. He still has a lot left in the tank. You look at the playoffs last year, and he was dominant … When he’s healthy he can go, and he’s one of the most dominant players in the league, so I’m a big fan of his game.”

As recently as Jan. 18, Howard put up the kinds of numbers that would make any team feel good about giving him a max deal – 36 points and 26 rebounds in a 140-132 overtime loss against the Los Angeles Clippers. Yet one game later, Howard sprained his left ankle one minute in and would miss the next three games because of the injury. In the three subsequent games, he would be ejected twice because of technical fouls and was later suspended by the NBA for Tuesday’s game against the Miami Heat because he pushed the arm of official Mitchell Ervin while facing the Washington Wizards.

In the span of two weeks, it was all sides of the Howard dilemma wrapped into one. And all of it, come July, will be evidence for the many executives who are pondering this question.