NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 49, Romney 43

The latest round of polling from The Wall Street Journal and NBC News has data points for partisans on both sides to jump on, but the overall takeaway is — you guessed it — this remains a close race with what looks like a slight edge for Obama:

In the presidential horserace, Obama leads Romney by six percentage points among registered voters, 49 percent to 43 percent. … In a smaller sample of registered voters living in 12 battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin), the incumbent president’s lead over Romney is eight points, 49 to 41, which is essentially unchanged from June. But among high-interest voters across the country – those indicating a “9” or “10” in interest on a 10-point scale – Romney edges Obama by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. What remains remarkable about this presidential contest, according to the NBC/WSJ pollsters, is how stable it has been, despite everything that has occurred in the past month. For example: The U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding Obama’s health care overhaul; the June jobs report, which showed that just 80,000 jobs were created last month; and the daily campaign attacks and counterattacks (including snipes over Obama’s business views, Romney’s unreleased tax returns, and the Republican’s time at Bain Capital).

The pollsters tell NBC and the Journal that the race is getting more polarized as the campaign turns more and more harshly negative. That's notable because of what it means for the playing field the candidates are competing on, but also may shed some light on the Obama campaign's move this week away from acid negative ads and toward direct-to-camera messages from the candidate himself.

That's not to say the attack ads haven't had an impact. Voters who have learned new information about Romney are more likely to have turned away from him than toward him. But the same is also true of Obama, who has taken a beating on the air, mostly from Republican outside groups. In the debate over whether Obama's ads have helped hold Romney down or whether they've produced very little change in the race at an enormous cost, the answer seems to be: yes.