Florida, America's biggest retirement hub, may be at higher risk for the novel coronavirus than other states.

"Florida is like an uber-Italy," Andrew Noymer, a demographer at the University of California, Irvine, told Matt Simon of Wired. "Florida is going to be a tough situation, I would predict."

His comments were based on a new paper by University of Oxford researchers in the journal Demographic Science, which looked into why Italy suffered so greatly from the coronavirus. As of Thursday morning, Italy has more than 35,000 known cases of the coronavirus and nearly 3,000 reported deaths — second only to China, where the novel coronavirus originated.

The researchers found two factors that put Italy at risk, Simon wrote: It has the second-oldest population, and younger generations interact more often with older generations there. The latter is linked to the country's multigenerational households.

The Italian coauthors of the paper told Simon that some young Italians commute between their jobs in big cities like Milan, where they socialize in big crowds, and the rural homes they live in with their parents and grandparents. This frequent travel may have fueled the "silent" spread of the coronavirus, they said.

The coronavirus hit Italy hard. REUTERS/Antonio Parrinello

Asymptomatic carriers can spread the coronavirus

People over 60 are at greater risk of becoming ill than younger folks who don't have underlying health conditions (those who do have preexisting conditions are also at higher risk). Coronavirus risk increases with age, making people in their 80s and 90s — for many of us, our grandparents — at the highest risk.

People who are lower risk and feel healthy, like millennials and Gen Zers, can be asymptomatic, meaning they're infected with COVID-19 but not exhibiting symptoms. This can make them unknowing vessels for spreading the coronavirus to those who are more high risk.

Consider the new study published in Science on Monday, which said that an estimated 86% of COVID-19 infections in China went undiagnosed before the country's travel ban was enacted on January 23. Undiagnosed people were the source of 79% of reported cases in the country. If they hadn't spread the virus, the number of cases could have been reduced by 66% in Wuhan and 79% across all of China, according to the study.

The authors said those who don't get diagnosed often have mild or nonexistent symptoms and contribute to the "rapid spread" of the virus in the country.

Florida's mix of retirees and young tourists poses unique risks

The possibility of a silent spread of the coronavirus from the young to the old in Italy made Noymer adamant that social distancing in Florida is especially crucial to avoid a fate like Italy's. Florida has a notable number of older residents: Those over 60 comprise a quarter of Florida's 20 million-plus population.

But spring breakers — mostly college kids who could be asymptomatic — continue to flock to Florida's beaches. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hasn't closed beaches statewide, leaving the decision up to local governments. According to The New York Times, he's reluctant to enforce measures that may hurt the state's $86 billion tourism industry.

Spring breakers swamped Clearwater Beach this week. Steve Nesius/Reuters

In Florida, Miami and Fort Lauderdale city officials shut down their beaches this week at the same time that Panama City Beach and Clearwater both made national news for their packed beaches. After backlash, Clearwater announced on Wednesday it would close its beach on Monday.

"I am freaking out," Fran Greenberg, a 63-year-old Boca Raton, Florida, resident, told The New York Times. "They absolutely did not take this seriously soon enough. Just yesterday, the beaches and Disney were still packed." (Disney World closed on Monday.)

She added: "What is the risk to Florida? In two months, somebody I know could be sick. Somebody I know could be dead."

This all makes testing particularly problematic for Florida

The entire US is significantly behind on testing for the coronavirus, Aria Bendix reported for Business Insider.

But public officials told The Times the lack of testing could be even more problematic for Florida, given its unique mix of the young and old. Floridian patients and family members who were interviewed by The Times said many people with known exposure to the virus or who are showing symptoms haven't been offered testing because there aren't enough test kits. One said her 61-year-old mother-in-law, who is hospitalized in critical condition with telltale symptoms, wasn't tested until she was put on a ventilator and placed in a medically induced coma.

Only 2,493 tests have been conducted in Florida, according to The Times. As of Thursday morning, Florida has 322 known coronavirus cases. DeSantis said on Wednesday Florida "needs to do way more tests than that" but added that the virus is affecting communities differently in the state. "The response may not always be the same on every little thing," he said. "We have counties that have not had a single case."

That same day, Florida Sen. Rick Scott tweeted that there was no excuse for every county in the US not to have a mobile testing center up and running by Friday.

"It's not destiny to say Florida is going to be absolutely clobbered by this," Noymer told Simon. "There is time with social distancing to flatten the peak. Maybe we can make this the dog that didn't bark, so to speak."