Gartner and IDC have both turned in their estimates for how many PCs were sold in Q4 2016, and the data isn’t good no matter where you look. While the two companies are characterizing their findings differently — IDC calls its 1.6% decline a “stabilization,” while Gartner charted a 3.7% decline compared to Q4 2015 and called it as such — neither has much in the way of positive forecasting to soften their conclusions.

The numbers: 72.6 million PCs were sold in Q4 2016 and 269.7 million PCs were sold throughout the year, Gartner reports. That’s a 6.2% decline compared to 2015, and the fifth straight year of decline. Total PC sales in 2011, for comparison, were 365 million units, or 1.35x higher than they are today. 269.7 million PCs is still a huge number of computers, but wiping out nearly 100 million unit shipments in just five years isn’t good for any market.

“Stagnation in the PC market continued into the fourth quarter of 2016 as holiday sales were generally weak due to the fundamental change in PC buying behavior,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “The broad PC market has been static as technology improvements have not been sufficient to drive real market growth. There have been innovative form factors like 2-in-1s and thin and light notebooks, as well as technology improvements, such as longer battery life. This end of the market has grown fast, led by engaged PC users who put high priority on PCs. However, the market driven by PC enthusiasts is not big enough to drive overall market growth.”

“There is the other side of the PC market, where PCs are infrequently used,” Kitagawa continued. “Consumers in this segment have high dependency on smartphones, so they stretch PC life cycles longer. This side of the market is much bigger than the PC enthusiast segment; thus, steep declines in the infrequent PC user market offset the fast growth of the PC enthusiast market.”

According to Gartner, Lenovo led in overall unit shipments, followed by HP and Dell. Lenovo, HP, Dell, and Apple all gained market share in 2016 while Asus and Acer both lost share. This was particularly bruising for Asus, whose Q4 2016 shipments declined by 8.5% compared to the same period a year earlier. According to Gartner, Asus’ US shipments fell a staggering 48% in Q4 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. The organization expects the PC industry to decline for at least the next year.

Meanwhile, Q4 sales fell just 1.5% year-on-year, with annual PC shipments declining 5.7%, IDC reports. Where Gartner expects to see stagnation and falling sales, however, IDC is somewhat more positive.

“The fourth quarter results reinforce our expectations for market stabilization, and even some recovery,” said Loren Loverde, vice president, Personal Computing Trackers & Forecasting. “The contraction in traditional PC shipments experienced over the past five years finally appears to be giving way as users move to update systems. We have a good opportunity for traditional PC growth in commercial markets, while the consumer segment should also improve as it feels less pressure from slowing phone and tablet markets.”

“The U.S. PC market was able to pull off a strong last quarter of the year with impressive growth in the retail PC segment that surpassed expectations,” said Neha Mahajan, senior research analyst, Devices & Displays. “Although this might signal regained consumer confidence in the PC market, with most of the sales being driven by aggressive promotions in the holiday season, it needs to be seen how much of the real demand is carried forward in the coming quarters.”

We’ve been wondering if Apple’s Mac shipments took a hit on the back of all the negative press the MacBook Pro accrued in Q4. But so far the answer seems to be “no.” IDC thinks Apple shipped 0.1% fewer units in Q4 2016 compared with Q4 2015, but that’s a blip on the overall radar. It’s still possible that the MacBook Pro will ship in lower numbers over the long run after the faithful snapped them up in Q4, but so far Apple’s decision to dump backwards compatibility (sans dongles) doesn’t seem to have cost them any sales.

As for which firm is more likely to be correct about the shape of the PC market in 2017, frankly I agree more with Gartner, and its predictions of at least one more year of stagnation or contraction. For the past few years, companies like Intel have confidently talked about upgrade cycles that would push consumers to begin replacing their PC hardware. In the beginning, this was a 2-3 year cycle. It eventually became 4-5 years, then 5-6. I’ve seen companies talk about eight-year upgrade cycles. The arguments, at this point, ring hollow.

This is not to suggest that the PC industry will decline forever. Rather, it suggests that the PC market is bifurcating into multiple distinct groups. First, you have power users, whether that means high-end gaming enthusiast or professional workstation customer. Next, you have customers who prioritize gains in battery life or weight reductions. These two groups are both concerned with performance, but they define the term differently and care about different features as a result.

Finally, you’ve got customers who increasingly treat their personal computer as if it’s on a similar replacement cycle to their refrigerator or washing machine. Nobody runs out and buys a washing machine because the 2017 models have amazing killer features, nobody cares about smart toasters, and the ugly truth is, the mass market doesn’t care much about PC hardware, either. Features like SSDs or improved 4K playback support will attract people on the edges. But very few people in the mass market are rushing out to buy new hardware because Intel, AMD, or Asus added those capabilities to existing products.

Ironically, it may be AMD that is best positioned to impact PC sales in 2017. AMD’s Ryzen processor is generally expected to be far more competitive with Intel products than any chip the company has launched in the past four years. We’ve already likely seen Intel adjust its product stack in response, and Ryzen hasn’t even launched yet. Better competition from AMD will likely drive some price cuts and new product introductions from Intel, and that, in turn, could spur consumer adoption of new chips from both companies. After five years of declines, even a flat year would be a win for the battered PC industry.