If it seems like it's been ages since the Chicago Red Stars last faced the Portland Thorns, that's because it has. They last played each other in the second match of the season, amid a crowd of scarf-and-parka clad fans at Benedictine University on April 25. That match ended in a 2-2 draw. In fact, after losing the first two match-ups in NWSL play and winning on June 1, 2013, the Red Stars have only ever tied the Thorns (Chicago is 1-2-4 all-time against Portland). With history as our guide, clearly we should expect another scoring draw on Sunday (7:30 CT on FS1), but possibly the biggest mystery of this match and the NWSL season is which Portland will the Red Stars face on Sunday? Will it be the team that looked like world-beaters on Wednesday, routing Boston 5-2? Or will it be the team on an only recently-ended 281 minute scoring drought that lost back-to-back matches against the Seattle Reign, the last a devastating 3-0 defeat? Can Chicago unlock Portland's defense as Seattle did? Or will it be Chicago's back line that is unlocked? For answers, we look at Portland's style of play, their issues up top, and what their recent form says about their mentality going into the end of the season.

Portland Thorn's Head Coach Paul Riley, a veteran coach in both men's lower division soccer (with the Long Island Rough Riders) and in women's soccer (with the WPSL's Long Island Fury and with the WPS's Philadelphia Independence, where he won Coach of the Year honors in 2010), has had the Thorns playing in a system seldom seen in professional soccer: a 3-4-2-1. It's a system that gives both broadcast teams and the NWSL website fits regarding whether to label players defenders, midfielders or forwards in their match previews and analysis (especially since teams don't provide a graphical representation of their line-ups). So given its relative obscurity as a system compared to the standard 4-4-2, 4-3-3 or 4-5-1, how does it work?





First we have three center backs (typically from right to left: Rachel Van Hollebeke, Kat Williamson, and Emily Menges) which frees up a player to be in the attack. It is system highly dependent on the speed, physical ability, and communication of the three center defenders and the goalkeeper because it leaves the flanks open and provides less cover in transition after midfield turnovers. Such turnovers have played a large role in the goals Portland has given up this season, with both the goals by Seattle Reign's Little on July 22 and Fishlock on July 26 coming from a Portland midfielder losing the ball in their own half leading to a quick counter. But wide play has also be a source of trouble for this line-up. The July 26 match saw Seattle going repeatedly after Van Hollebeke, and the Reign found joy twice in the 46th and 50th minutes through crosses to Beverly Yanez. This is also how Chicago scored both their goals against Portland back in April, with crossfield balls finding Christen Press alone against Portland's right center back (in this case, Taylor Niemiec, who has since been waived by Portland), and Press shooting from the top of the penalty area. However, this vulnerability may have been shored up recently by the acquisition of Australian Clare Polkinghorne, who took Van Hollebeke's spot versus Boston. Much of the defensive responsibilities in this line-up also fall to the two defensive center mids, who must patrol the space in front of the defense, and the wingers, who must be fit enough to play the entire length of the pitch for 90 minutes. Wednesday, the midfield positions were filled by Kaylyn Kyle and Sinead Farrelly, while Tobin Heath and McCall Zerboni occupied the wings. The choice of the dynamic Zerboni, who has also played in the center of midfield this season, at right wing, may have added additional defensive coverage.



Offensively, in the absence of Alex Morgan, Riley has relied heavily on Christine Sinclair and Allie Long to produce goals. Sinclair typically plays the lone striker, while Long and a rotating cast of other attacking players, including Genoveva (Ayo) Añonma and Mana Shim, have slotted in underneath. The Thorns have a potent weapon in long balls to the head of Sinclair, who's knock-down is more often than not claimed by Long. Now with possession in the attacking third, Long either seeks to play one of her teammates in behind the opponent's back line, or sprays it wide to Tobin Heath for a cross back in to find Sinclair or Long crashing the net. Recent goals against the Western New York Flash and Boston came from this type of play. Much of Portland's offense is also generated by a high-press style of defense and through clogging the center of the field, frustrating teams that play through the middle and forcing turnovers that can be put in to Sinclair or wide to Heath. Portland also has a tendency to score on bad clearances, a good example being the game-tying goal from Shim against the Red Stars in April.



With the right pieces in place, Riley's system can be very effective going forward, but it is not without defensive frailties, which the Red Stars can hopefully exploit come Sunday.

Even when Portland was losing to Seattle, they looked dangerous in the attacking third. They just couldn't seem to find the net despite some great combination play from Long and Sinclair. The problem is, when you're forced to rely on a limited number of players for goals as Portland has on Sinclair and Long, those players will eventually hit a dry spell. The Thorns have desperately missed the services of Alex Morgan up top, not just because she's an amazing goalscorer (so is Sinclair) but because of an over-reliance on Sinclair. With forward and England international Jodie Foster getting her first goal in a Portland shirt on Wednesday, this might be changing, but she was subbed off at half and is still listed as "questionable" for Sunday. Moreover, with their recent goals coming against teams from the bottom half of the table, it remains to be seen if they will have as many chances against Chicago this Sunday, much less finish them.

According to the most recent rundown by the league, the magic number for Portland to avoid exclusion from the playoffs is 15, which is exactly how many points they can earn if they win ALL of their remaining games (though the Dash made Portland's playoff push a little easier with their loss to Sky Blue FC on Friday night). This is a team for which every match from now on is a must-win. The first time they lose could see them eliminated from the playoffs. This kind of pressure can crush teams, but Portland probably has enough experience to see them keep their heads up for the entire match. Expect Sinclair and Long to hustle and make chances all 90 minutes. This is something that could haunt Chicago if the game is close late in the second half, especially since the Red Stars have recently given up several leads late in matches.

So how can the Red Stars break the cycle and finally win again against Portland? Chicago will still be without the services of Samantha Johnson, who is listed as "questionable", and Vanessa DiBernardo is listed as "probable" with a right ankle sprain. While this means Abby Erceg will almost certainly start next to Julie Johnston, whether DiBernardo is fit to start could significantly change the Red Stars' strategy and shape in attack. Without DiBernardo against FC Kansas City, the Red Stars looked flat and gave away the ball too much in midfield. This is something, given Portland's penchant for scoring in transition, that the Red Stars cannot afford. Keeping Portland off the scoreboard will also depend on the ability of the defense and defensive midfield to stop Sinclair and Long from winning long and second balls. If the ball is sprayed out wide to Heath, Zerboni or Shim, then Erceg and Johnston must be aware of the late runs of Long from midfield. Taryn Hemmings at right fullback will likely be tasked with shutting down Heath, while Arin Gilliland on the left side will hope to get forward and keep Portland's right wing more concerned with defense than offense.



Meanwhile, on offense, Chicago can stick to the strategy that worked for them in April and also more recently for Seattle. The forward line can use width to stretch Portland's back three and open seams in the middle, counting on good distribution into wide areas from Lori Chalupny, Danielle Colaprico and DiBernarndo. A high press defense, giving Portland some of their own medicine, can catch out Portland on the counter and test Michelle Betos' communication with her back line (assuming Betos continues to get the start over German international Nadine Angerer).



Much will come down to whether Red Stars Head Coach Rory Dames uses a 4-3-3, which will put a lot of pressure on Portland's back three, or a 4-4-2, which might better exploit the width ceded by Portland's not having fullbacks while also stopping Heath's marauding on the wing. Also, whom from the Red Stars ample stable of forwards is better suited to go up top with Press? We'll find out Sunday night on FS1. And don't be surprised if it once again ends up 2-2.