Nearly one-third of the “most critical” preparations for a no-deal Brexit are behind schedule, according to newly released government papers on the implications of a disorderly exit from the EU.

The documents – published on Tuesday after demands from MPs – also say that UK citizens are not preparing for a no-deal scenario as it is not viewed as a “sufficiently credible” outcome by the public.

Reporting analysis supplied to the cabinet, the documents add that leaving the bloc without a deal could leave the UK economy between 6.3 and 9 per cent smaller after 15 years than it would otherwise have been.

Critically, the government papers state: “Notwithstanding the very significant efforts to prepare for a no-deal scenario, the latest internal government-wide delivery reporting reveals the scale of risk remaining in the limited time available.

Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Show all 12 1 /12 Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Derry, Londonderry A garage door displaying unionism, bolted shut, like a visual representation of Brexit Britain, locked to outsiders, safeguarding what’s inside Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Derry, Londonderry Rossville Street, the site of Bloody Sunday, where messages demand a severance with England. From this perspective, Britain is England in sheep’s clothing, the real empire, the centre of colonial power Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Bangor A political message in paint not yet dry, still forming, setting, adjusting, or in old paint finally eroding, melting away Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Bangor Moral judgement frames a residential view. The message seeks to make everybody involved in the religious narrative: those who don’t believe are those most in debt Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Castlerock The beach is sparse and almost empty, but covered in footprints. The shower is designed to wash off sand, and a mysterious border cuts a divide through the same sand Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Belfast Two attempts to affect and care for the body. One stimulated by vanity and social norms and narratives of beauty, the other by a need to keep warm in the winter night Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Belfast The gate to an unclaimed piece of land, where nothing is being built, where no project is in the making, where a sign demands the creation of something new Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Derry, Londonderry Under a motorway bridge a woman’s face stares, auburn and red-lipped, her skin tattooed with support for the IRA and a message of hostility to advocates of the Social Investment Fund Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Derry, Londonderry The Fountain Murals, where the curbs and the lampposts are painted the red, white, and blue of the Union Flag. A boy walks past in the same colours, fitting the scene, camouflaged Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Coleraine A public slandering by the football fields, for all to see or ignore. I wonder if it’s for the police or for the community Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Belfast A tattoo parlour, where the artist has downed tools, momentarily, bringing poise to the scene, which looks like a place of mourning, not a site of creation Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northern Ireland Derry, Londonderry A barrier of grey protects the contents of this shop, guarding it from the streets outside, but it cannot conceal it completely, and the colours of lust and desire and temptation cut through Richard Morgan/The Independent

“In February, departments reported being on track for just under 85 per cent of no-deal projects but, within that, on track for just over two-thirds of the most critical projects.”

The papers claimed that the introduction of tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade in the case of a no-deal Brexit can be expected to have a “very severe” impact on some UK industries.

And around 240,000 UK companies which trade only with the EU would be caught up in the customs processes, with a total administrative burden on business from customs declarations of around £13bn a year.

In regards to the public, the papers claim: “Evidence suggests that individual citizens are also not preparing for the effects that they would feel in a no-deal scenario.

“Government judges that the reason for this lack of action is often because a no-deal scenario is not seen as a sufficiently credible outcome to take action or outlay expenditure.”

The document stated that “the cumulative impact from a no-deal scenario is also expected to be more severe in Northern Ireland than in Great Britain, and to last for longer”.

It warned: “In a no-deal scenario there is an expectation of disruption to closely interwoven supply chains and increasing costs that would affect the viability of many businesses across Northern Ireland.

“There is a risk that businesses in Northern Ireland will not have sufficient time to prepare. This could result in business failure, and/or relocation to Ireland with knock-on consequences for the Northern Ireland economy and unemployment.”

And food prices are “likely” to increase in the wake of a no-deal exit, the papers said.

Theresa May gives parliament opportunity to take no-deal Brexit off the table

Much of the information and analysis contained in the paper, released in response to an amendment tabled by the now-Independent Group MPs Chuka Umunna and Anna Soubry, was already in the public domain.

But Mr Umunna said it painted “a disastrous picture of the catastrophe which would befall our country if there is a no-deal Brexit”.

He continued: “In light of what she knows, it is utterly irresponsible for the prime minister to keep a no-deal Brexit on the table given the extreme damage it will do.

“These papers set out how food prices will rise, we may see panic buying, there will be severe disruption at the border, and jobs and livelihoods would immediately be put at risk.