Gerrymandering ruling could make Mark Meadows' re-election bid tougher

ASHEVILLE – A recent court ruling that declared North Carolina's congressional district lines an unconstitutional political gerrymander injected a huge dose of uncertainty into what had been quiet races to represent Western North Carolina in the U.S. House.

No one knows whether this year's election will be held with existing district lines or new ones, what the new lines would look like, when party primaries will be held and which candidates will end up in which district.

One possibility, said Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper, is that 11th District U.S. Rep. Mark Meadows, R-Buncombe, will face a tougher challenge for re-election than he would have otherwise.

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The 11th today stretches from Lenoir to North Carolina's westernmost tip beyond Murphy and is generally regarded as a safe Republican seat.

Three federal judges on Jan. 9 struck down the map for U.S. House districts adopted by the state General Assembly, saying they are an unconstitutional political gerrymander. The U.S. Supreme Court is likely to decide the case, which could dramatically shift the way courts evaluate the redistricting plans state legislatures adopt every 10 years.

Republicans also have a heavy advantage in the 10th, represented by U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-Lincoln, political experts say. It runs from the Charlotte suburbs in Gaston County west to a twisting boundary with the 11th that runs through West Asheville and North Asheville neighborhoods.

The 10th will probably remain strongly Republican, Cooper said, although he said it is difficult to predict what the boundaries of any district would be if the state General Assembly or the courts redraw them.

Meadows would still be favored to win if new boundaries put all of mostly Democratic Buncombe County back into the 11th, Cooper said, but a Democrat's odds of victory would be much higher than they are today.

"It'll crack a door for a Democrat in a way that hasn't been cracked since Heath Shuler was in office," he said, referring to the last Democrat to represent WNC in the U.S. House.

Shuler declined to seek a fourth term in 2012 after the Republican-dominated General Assembly redrew district lines to make the 11th much more favorable for GOP candidates. One of the biggest changes was splitting Buncombe County between the 10th and 11th districts.

Meadows won the race to replace Shuler that year and has won re-election easily since.

Many rural WNC counties are strongly conservative and would provide a counterbalance to Asheville's progressive voting tendencies if a new 11th District emerges that resembles the old one.

If that happens, Democrats are "still going to have to put up a strong candidate to beat Mark Meadows," Cooper said.

This is expected to be a good year for Democratic congressional candidates because of the unpopularity of President Donald Trump. However, a continued strong economy would help Republicans' chances.

Three Democrats have said they are in the running for their party's nomination in the 11th. None are well known throughout the district.

Kathy Sinclair, Democrats' chair for the 11th District, said she has heard of no additional candidates coming forward since the Jan. 9 ruling.

Meadows' campaign manager, Bob Penland, could not be reached for comment Friday.

New district lines would affect other candidates, too.

Swannanoa resident Seth Blankenship has already started running for the Republican nomination in the 10th District, but it's possible a new district map would put all of Buncombe County in the 11th.

U.S. House candidates are not legally required to live in the district they run in, but living outside a district would be a political liability.

Blankenship said he is "just as ready to move forward as before" with his candidacy.

But, he said, "If my house is drawn out of the 10th and into the 11th, that's something that I'll have to put a lot of thought and prayer and consideration into."

Decisions ahead

It could be months before new lines are drawn for the 10th and 11th, if they are drawn at all. The U.S. Supreme Court may weigh in, possibly handing down a decision toward the end of its current term in June.

Lawyers for Republican legislative leaders on Friday asked the Supreme Court to block enforcement of the Jan. 9 lower court ruling for now, saying it is unreasonable to expect legislators to draw new lines only a few weeks before this year's election process officially begins.

The legislature is also asking the Supreme Court to overturn the ruling and uphold the existing district map. That would keep lines as they are until 2022.

The filing period for 2018 races in North Carolina is set to run Feb. 12-28, with primaries scheduled for May 8 and the general election Nov. 6.

In the Jan. 9 ruling, three U.S. District Court judges directed legislators to come up with and approve a new district map by Jan. 24.

Many observers think the Supreme Court will ultimately agree to hear the North Carolina case, consolidating it with another challenging state legislative district lines in Wisconsin and possibly one over a congressional district in Maryland.

In the Wisconsin case, the court has kept the district lines that are being challenged in place while it decides an appeal. It heard arguments in that case in October and is expected to make a decision by the end of June.

If the North Carolina and Wisconsin cases are joined, a decision in the North Carolina case would presumably come at the same time.

That would not necessarily preclude holding primaries then a general election with new district lines this year, but it would result in a significantly compressed schedule compared with usual procedures.

Pat Gannon, a spokesman for the state's elections agency, said officials there have not made any changes to this year's election calendar, but acknowledged that might be required later.

"We're waiting for clarity from the courts and the General Assembly," he said.

Who's running?

Both 10th District U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-Lincoln, and 11th District U.S. Rep. Mark Meadows, R-Buncombe, are expected to seek re-election this year, although neither has made a formal announcement. Here is a list of candidates who have announced or taken other steps to run.

10th

--Republican Seth Blankenship, a flooring salesman from Swannanoa and former chief of staff of the D. James Kennedy Center for Christian Statesmanship in Washington.

--Democrat David Wilson Brown, an information technology consultant from McAdenville in Gaston County.

--Republican Ira Roberts of Hickory. He is a facilities operations manager for a distribution center.

--Rutherford County Democrat Kenneth Queen declared his candidacy last year but later dropped out for health reasons.

11th

--Democrat Dr. Scott Donaldson, a urological surgeon from Hendersonville.

--Republican Christopher Money of Lenoir has filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission indicating he will run but has apparently made no announcement to the media.

--Democrat Phillip Price, owner of a business that reclaims lumber. He lives in Dysartsville in McDowell County.

--Democrat Steven Woodsmall of Brevard. He is a professor at Brevard College and coordinator of its Business and Organizational Leadership Program.