Washington Wizards Didn’t Have Firepower For Uptempo Offense

When John Wall said the Washington Wizards would finish top-5 in pace before the season started, he wasn’t joking.

Randy Wittman’s Wizards are currently 5th in the league in pace after ranking 16th and 19th the last two years. They are first in the NBA in fast break points.

Back then the style change seemed obvious. Wittman’s two-big lineups and mid-range offense was outdated. John Wall would finally have space around him. He would get to run.

Flash forward six months and here we are: no playoffs, no draft pick.

So, why has this happened. Well, for many reasons. One reason is that the change of pace has created about five more possessions per game than last year, but the team simply has not had the firepower to fill those extra possessions.

The Washington Wizards’ most used lineup this season is Wall-Temple-Porter-Dudley-Gortat.

Those five players are also the team’s top five in minutes played. Garrett Temple, Otto Porter, Jared Dudley, and Marcin Gortat all have usage rates below 20 percent, which means that they all like to use less than a fifth of their team’s possessions.

2015-16 season, through 4/5/16, per nba.com/stats:

Usage Rate % of FG’s assisted % of FG’s assisted by John Wall Garrett Temple 14.1% 74.6% 40.2% Otto Porter 16.2% 76.5% 40.5% Jared Dudley 12.7% 93.1% 44.4% Marcin Gortat 18.8% 80.6% 44.3% John Wall 28.4% 28.7% —

A fast game with many possessions can be good for a team that has superior offensive players, but not so good for a team with only one guy (Wall) who can create. Great fast paced teams like the current Warriors, the Nash Suns, or the Webber Kings had elite talent to shoot the ball.

Most of the shooters Wall has had this year are not able to create offense themselves, or even attack a rotating defense. In fact, they haven’t shot the ball especially well either, as Wall actually leads the team in made threes (which is not a good sign).

On top of that, the philosophy change came at the expense of the team’s defensive identity, which former-starter Nene was a large part of.

This year’s role players have also has had to make up for the contributions Nene and Paul Pierce gave the starting lineup last year. Usually noted for their veteran presence, Pierce and Nene still took on some creation duties. In 2014-15 Pierce has a usage rate of 19.7 percent and Nene of 21.9 percent.

John Wall, surrounded by low-usage players, has had to take on the burden of filling the extra possessions. He currently leads the league in touches. He has stretched himself about as thin as he can go, and it has come at the expense of his efficiency. If usage and efficiency are inversely related, then Wall has passed his equilibrium.

Evidence:

Of the top twenty players in the league in usage rate, Wall is second to last in TS%, behind Kobe.

He has taken the most 15-19 foot jumpshots (the long two) in the league and is hitting a lower percentage than anyone else in the top 25.

He is third in the league in turnovers

His defense has also been lost to the cause. Last year he ranked fourth among point guards in ESPN’s defensive real plus-minus, this year he is 16th.

He is tied for third in the league in technical fouls.

Still, Wall has fought hard to reach new heights. He’s fourth in the league in double-doubles, he’s near the 20-5-10 club, he’s first among guards in blocks, and he’s first in assists per game that lead to a three.

He is currently averaging a career high in points per game, assists per game, rebounds per game, steals per game, and made threes per game. His free throws are down for the third straight year, but if he stays as healthy as he has been the last three years, I’ll take that.

What has gone unmentioned so far, but lingers over this discussion of usage rates, is that Playoff Bradley Beal was supposed to step in and take the extra possessions.

Beal, however, has missed large chunks of time to injury, and was usually on a minutes limit when he did play.

He currently sits 6th for the Wizards in minutes played and 3rd in points scored.

Somehow he only has one game with 28+ points this season, after recording four such games in last year’s playoffs.

These days his contract situation seems to loom over every shot he takes.

Going forward, can Ted Leonsis and probably Ernie Grunfeld address this problem?

Markieff Morris was a nice addition—he can create his own offense.

While Beal underwhelmed, he actually has had an efficient season while playing 31 minutes a game. The team also has $20+ million in cap room to use in free agency this summer. Finally, they could potentially upgrade by cashing in some assets—a.k.a young players.

But the bottom line is this: the minute Wall was drafted in 2010 Leonsis and Grunfeld rolled out a literal red carpet for him—and thereby placed a huge weight on his shoulders.

He has responded by leading the team in points scored every year since, by being a three-time All-Star, and by winning two playoff series. Wall is under contract for three more years and Ted/Ernie need to live up to their side of the bargain and get him some high-level teammates.