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Four years after an NDP government seized a surprise victory in the centre of Canada’s Conservative heartland, the party is … doing not that bad, all things considered.

Polls show that Alberta premier Rachel Notley’s government is probably doomed to defeat on April 16, but her personal popularity remains higher than her rival, United Conservative leader Jason Kenney. In February, a ThinkHQ poll found 44 per cent of respondents approved of Notley’s performance, compared to 43 per cent for United Conservative leader Jason Kenney.

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As premier, Notley’s approval rating is 40 per cent, higher than Ontario’s Doug Ford and the highest of any Canadian premier who has served a full term.

All told, it’s a remarkably good showing for a party whose provincial governments typically go down in flames.

Photo by Larry Wong

On both sides of Alberta, the last NDP-defeats on record were utter blowouts. In 2007, the Saskatchewan NDP lost two thirds of its 30 seats to Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan Party. In 2001, the B.C. NDP immolated from a majority government to only two seats.