I was 50:50 when it came to Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz’s “welterweight” match.

For I dislike Conor, he is a spectacular fighter. He is a gifted counter fighter, knows how to set up his money punch, an incredibly disciplined weight cutter, and a master of psychological manipulation.

But Nate, seemingly ignored by casual fans, was no slouch. After two blistering rounds, Nate sank a choke to set up the most anticipated rematch of all time.

Then, Conor and his fanbase immediately dismissed the loss to preserve their egos. As though Nate was being shellacked until the fight changing 1-2. To think that Conor would win the first fight is understandable. To think he’ll win the rematch is understandable.

But to dismiss the result of the first fight as a fluke is idiotic on a biblical scale.

So before we delve into a prediction for the rematch, let’s break down their first fight.

Conor had weighed in at 168 lbs. and Nate at 169 lbs.

Usually fighters cut down to their weight limit and then re-hydrate to bulk up significantly past the limit. If a fighter weighs in under the weight, they’re usually not coming in any heavier on fight day.

Nate’s base level of fitness is great, but he was nowhere near fight shape. In only 11 days of training he was already below the weight limit, meaning that his “true weight” was more likely in the low 160’s. On the other hand, Conor was cutting to lightweight and then was allowed to stop since the fight took place at welterweight, leaving his “true weight” in the low 160’s as well.

Neither fighter was drained, the weight difference was small. Conor was the healthiest he had been in the octagon while Nate didn’t have to worry about cutting and just focus on fight readiness.

In 11 days, Conor had put together a fantastic game plan.

When I suggested that, in a southpaw vs southpaw match up, Conor could cross counter the jab happy Nate I was only half serious. But the Diaz brothers rely on smooth technique rather than raw hand speed, allowing Conor fire his cross whenever he desired.

Eventually he began firing it through Nate’s lead hook as well, and the punch would be responsible for 90% of the damage he inflicted throughout the fight.

He was also the first fighter in recent memory to punish Nate for his habit of leaning over at the waist to extend his range.

Nate is tough as nails so its hard to gauge exactly how much damage they were doing, but if an uppercut forces a fighter to straighten up and stops their momentum it’s definitely doing something.

Conor continued winning the first round, but it was clear that his momentum was stalling.

Conor was still landing the left cross, but Nate’s preemptive slipping and leaning was mitigating the impact; half the time Joe Rogan yelled “good left hand by Conor!” the punch was skating off at an angle while Nate swayed to divert the damage. The jabs that had previously been counter fodder for the Irishman were now connecting with just enough force to throw his punches off course.

The round ended with Conor sweeping Nate and ending up on top. We’ll never know if it was overconfidence from Nate or guile from Conor (likely a combination) because the round ended soon after in a solid 10-9 for the Irishman.

But Nate had been plotting. A rangier fighter can sit back and observe their opponent since they can strike at a range where the opponent (usually) can’t hit back. And for all the damage Nate took, he gained valuable information.

He was beginning to understand the range at which Conor would counter his jabs and the range at which he’d be content to sit back. He milled his arms (or as I call it, doing the Fighting Irish) to see how Conor would react to potential strikes. He was banged up and one round down, but he had all the information he needed.

As soon as round 2 started, the fight looked eerily similar to his brother Nick’s win over Takanori Gomi.

The jabs that had previously been disrupting Conor’s accuracy were now landing square, stopping him in his tracks and dropping his hands. Rather than eating the left cross, Nate was now baiting it and countering the counter. With the timing of the cross down, he was spinning his neck to disperse the impact and returning with a hook every time.

Conor was still throwing hard but nothing was connecting squarely, either bouncing off Nate’s forearms or skating off his shoulders and head.

Eventually Nate landed a 1-2 that shook Conor to his heels.

He knew exactly where Conor would put his chin in reaction to his jab, and threw his straight across his jab where it cracked like an elephant gun. Whereas the jab clipped Conor, the straight was a bulls eye.

If there’s one area that I would say the (possible) weight advantage mattered, it was in the clinch. The Diaz brothers are slick clinch fighters on their own, but with a weight advantage it’s easy to see how a fighter inexperienced in the position would get absolutely mauled. After brutalizing him against the fence, Nate landed another 1-2 and blind angle right hook set up the takedown attempt and choke.

So what to make of the fight?

The fight boiled down to the fact that Conor couldn’t overcome the natural match up issues presented by Nate. His game plan was very good, punishing Nate’s jab and leans but he became too predictable in doing so. Nate’s toughness is not a function of his chin (unlike his brother Nick) but rather his defensive savvy, and many of Conor’s connections weren’t clean enough to rattle him before he downloaded his opponent. These aren’t issues that can be ascribed to weight class or lack of preparation.

With both fighters having a full training camp and being proper welterweights, how does the match up change?

We’ll figure that out Friday.