GOP alarm? Dem challengers outraise seven California House Republicans

Democratic challengers outraised seven Republican members of Congress in California over the last three months of 2017, the latest sign of a flood of support for Democrats as they try to take control of the House of Representatives in this year’s midterm elections.

The GOP’s lackluster fundraising totals showed up in more than half of the races here in which Republican incumbents are running for re-election, according to campaign finance reports released Thursday.

Republican incumbents fell short from a deep-red district in California’s north — where two first-time Democratic candidates each topped Rep. Tom McClintock’s campaign haul — to more competitive districts in the south — where Reps. Mimi Walters and Dana Rohrabacher collected less than their Democratic opponents.

The figures suggest that California, long a source of campaign funds for battleground states, could be a major focus for big donors outside the Golden State this year.

“This early money sends a strong signal for Democrats,” said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University. “Democrats cannot win the House without picking off at least several of these Republicans in California.”

Democrats must win 24 Republican-held seats to take control of the House. And two California GOP incumbents — Reps. Darrell Issa and Ed Royce — have already announced they will not run for re-election.

Three Republican incumbents even ended the year with less cash on hand than Democratic challengers — an extremely rare development in House races, where incumbents usually have a strong financial advantage.

Most strikingly, Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Alpine, raised less than $51,000, being outraised by two Democratic challengers in his San Diego-area seat. Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official, took in $176,000, and Josh Butner, a former Navy Seal, raised $106,000. Hunter ended the year with $290,900 in the bank, compared with $299,000 for Campa-Najjar.

Hunter — whose anemic totals have raised red flags among Republican strategists — is facing a criminal investigation into his campaign spending for video games and personal travel. The FBI filed a search warrant for his campaign office last year. The congressman, who has denied criminal action and said he’s cooperating with the investigation, spent three times more on lawyers’ fees than he raised in the last quarter. A Hunter spokesman did not respond to a request for comment Thursday.

“People are looking for redemption,” Campa-Najjar said in an interview. “There’s a national appeal and a national spotlight on California that a lot of us are benefiting from.”

Also in the race is another Republican candidate, Shamus Sayed, who raised $85,000 from donors and gave his campaign a $100,000 personal loan.

A few hundred miles to the north, McClintock, R-Roseville, showed signs he could be vulnerable. The five-term incumbent raised $216,000, while Jessica Morse, who worked at the State Department and the U.S. military, raised $292,000 and Regina Bateson, a professor and former foreign service officer, raised $261,000. Morse also entered 2018 with more cash on hand.

Hunter and McClintock’s districts are strongly Republican and were won by Donald Trump in 2016.

Democrats also outraised incumbent Republicans in three Southern California districts won by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa, was outraised by Democrats Harley Rouda and Hans Keirstead. Rouda raised $626,000, more than double Rohrabacher’s $272,000 haul, and has more cash on hand — although $500,000 of that was a loan from himself.

Rep. Steve Knight, R-Palmdale, was narrowly outraised by Democrat Katie Hill, $240,000 to $252,000.

And Rep. Mimi Walters, R-Irvine, took in less than Democrats Brian Forde and Katie Porter, although she has far more cash on hand, with over $1.5 million.

“The enthusiastic support for our campaign demonstrates that people in Orange County and throughout the nation are hungry for progressive leaders who have a strong track record of solving problems as opposed to partisan bickering,” said Forde, who worked as an adviser in the Obama administration.

Democrats won fundraising fights even in some of the state’s most deeply red districts, in campaigns that are more or less off the radar of national strategists.

Rep. Paul Cook, R-Yucca Valley, raised just under $128,000, while Democrat Marge Doyle — a nurse and health care executive whose campaign slogan is “put Marge in charge” — raised $178,000. And Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Richvale, raised $130,000, compared with $147,000 for attorney Jessica Holcombe. Both LaMalfa and Cook have substantially more in the bank than their Democratic rivals.

Rob Pyers, the research director for the nonpartisan political data group California Target Book, said the state was seeing unprecedented Democratic enthusiasm in Congressional races. But he cautioned that the big sums going even to long-shot candidates such as Doyle and Holcombe could be a waste for party donors.

“There should be more than a little worry that Democratic candidates are the next cryptocurrency bubble,” Pyers said. “There’s an argument to be made that there’s a mania sweeping Democratic donors who are throwing money at candidates without paying attention to the underlying fundamentals.”

Two Central Valley Republican incumbents that Democrats are also targeting are doing comparably better. Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Turlock, raised almost $200,000 more than any of his dozen Democratic opponents, while Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, raised about 10 times more than his only Democratic rival, Emilio Huerta.

No Democratic House incumbents in the state were outraised by Republican challengers.

In the closely watched Southern California districts held by Issa and Royce, who said last month that they wouldn’t run for re-election, the Republican candidates don’t have to file their first financial disclosures until later this year.

“Democrats across California are out-hustling and out-organizing Republican candidates, who face an uphill climb in a state where President Trump and the Washington Republican agenda on healthcare, taxes, and immigration grows more unpopular by the day,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Drew Godinich.

For their part, Republicans say they aren’t worried at this stage.

“Our incumbents are in great financial shape and they’re all taking these races seriously,” said Jack Pandol, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “The Democratic challengers are all in competitive primaries, and they’ll be forced to spend way down just to survive.”

In some districts — especially the open seats vacated by Issa and Royce — the large numbers of well-funded Democratic candidates could work against the party. Because of California’s top-two primary system, it’s possible that Democratic candidates could split the vote between them in the June 5 primary and allow two Republicans to skate into the November general election.

That’s something Democratic strategists are actively working to avoid. Primary endorsements at the state Democratic Party convention in San Diego later this month could help consolidate support.

Money raised in the last three months of 2017 in California House races with targeted Republican incumbents:

CA1

Doug LaMalfa (Republican incumbent): $130,278.00 raised, $266,840.27 cash on hand

Jessica Holcombe (Democrat): $147,404.11 raised, $144,853.19 cash on hand

CA4

Tom McClintock (Republican incumbent): $215,854.10 raised, $461,943.07 cash on hand

Jessica Morse (D): $291,761.40 raised, $488,842.40 cash on hand

Regina Bateson (D): $260,724.41 raised, $276,060.07 cash on hand

CA8

Paul Cook (Republican incumbent): $127,610.70 raised, $828,227.34 cash on hand

Marge Doyle (D): $178,294.07 raised, $168,259.04 cash on hand

CA10

Jeff Denham (Republican incumbent): $468,680.38 raised, $1,897,891.69 cash on hand

Josh Harder (D): $290,937.10 raised, $674,916.35 cash on hand

TJ Cox (D): $227,001.63 raised, $279,822.39 cash on hand

Sue Zwahlen (D): $124,093.52 raised, $131,965.93 cash on hand

CA21

David Valadao (Republican incumbent): $242,356.49 raised, $981,189.57 cash on hand

Emilio Huerta (D): $24,582.51 raised, $96,553.52 cash on hand

CA25

Steve Knight (Republican incumbent): $240,244.10 raised, $794,747.79 cash on hand

Katie Hill (D): $252,350.81 raised, $382,848.25 cash on hand

Bryan Caforio (D): $211,496.93 raised, $377203.39 cash on hand

Jess Phoenix (D): $158,033.55 raised, $ $110,187.58 cash on hand

CA45

Mimi Walters (Republican incumbent): $253,722.29 raised, $1,512,452.89 cash on hand

Brian Forde (D): $403,829.45 raised, $560,761.73 cash on hand

Katie Porter (D): $266,669.83 raised, $510,298.91 cash on hand

Dave Min (D): $212,575.35 raised, $410, 148.57 cash on hand

CA48

Dana Rohrabacher (Republican incumbent): $271,969.57 raised, $713,144.00 cash on hand

Harley Rouda (D): $626,254.14 raised, $833,687.51 cash on hand

Hans Keirstead (D): $402,140.78 raised, $490,436.44 cash on hand

Omar Siddiqui (D): $254,194.28 raised, $540,251.21 cash on hand

CA50

Duncan Hunter (Republican incumbent): $50,703.11 raised, $290,904.18 cash on hand

Shamus Sayed (Republican): $185,539.00 raised, $147,486.35 cash on hand

Ammar Campa Najjar (D): $176,181.35 raised, $298,989.07 cash on hand

Josh Butner (D): $106,536.08 raised, $276,694.15 cash on hand

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