Want to keep up to date on Welsh politics? Sign up and get political news sent straight to your inbox Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice Invalid Email

One of Wales’ most influential political thinkers has sketched out a vision for the nation if Scotland leaves the United Kingdom in the wake of the Brexit vote.

The United Kingdom could be replaced by a “confederation” between each of the home nations and possibly the Republic of Ireland, according to David Melding, who was Deputy Presiding Officer until this year.

Mr Melding, who has been a Conservative AM since the Assembly’s founding in 1999, fears it will be “harder for Wales to maintain and strengthen its autonomy should Scotland secede”.

He has put forward a bold series of proposals for reform to protect the position of Wales in the years ahead ranging from a guaranteed position for a Welsh politician in one of the top two jobs in Government to the establishment of an official royal residence in Cardiff.

(Image: Justin Tallis/PA Wire)

Is is time for brand new parties on the left and the right in Wales?

A key proposal is the creation of “fully independent Conservative and Labour parties in Wales” or “their replacement by new and independent parties of right and left”.

If this did not happen, he warned, political parties could “find it difficult to persuade the Welsh electorate that their interests are front and centre”.

Mr Melding said that although Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservatives had “attempted to be distinct enough to avoid capture by Westminster” they had “fallen considerably short of effective autonomy”.

He said this was “most clearly illustrated in their failure to secure a larger block grant for Wales to compensate for the anomalies of the Barnett formula” which is used to allocate Treasury cash to Wales.

A further idea is the replacement of the House of Lords with a “Senate containing a disproportionally large number of Welsh members and with some form of veto on decisions altering the balance of powers in the Union”.

Describing further changes to protect Wales’ interests, he said: “The office of Deputy Prime Minister could be entrenched and strengthened, and held by a politician with a Welsh constituency (vice versa if the PM were Welsh). At the ceremonial level the bells, whistles and baubles of state could be theatrically adapted: a Royal residence at Cardiff Castle, the Tudor dragon restored to its armorial status, a dragon also on the Union flag and Royal standard, a Welsh Order of Chivalry.”

(Image: Mirrorpix)

Would the English go along with this?

Mr Melding recognises that it is uncertain “whether opinion in England would think such reform warranted to satisfy the interests of a small, Welsh minority that practically speaking has little ability to form an alternative political association”.

He added: “It would take genuine statesmanship on the part of English politicians to establish a Union of true partnership between England and Wales, especially amid any resurgence of English nationalism. Partnership might not be the first thing on the minds of those intent on restoring English dignity after the loss of Scotland.”

(Image: Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images)

Could the Welsh Government be left with responsibility for the 'cultural sphere'?

Describing the future he fears could await Wales, he said: “The threat now facing Wales is less the wilful encroachment of Westminster into devolved politics, but rather the practical consequences of English decision-making and the space left for different policy options in Wales. The effective power of the Welsh Government over public policy could shrink to the cultural sphere and perhaps the clever adaptation of policies generated in England.”

However, he suggested the present nations of the UK could come together around an “Atlantic Islands Council”.

He argues this would offer something “quite vital” to each of the nations, stating it would allow Scotland to “secure much of what it values in the current social and economic union with the rest of the UK” and Northern Ireland would “feel less isolated than otherwise in the wake of a hard Scottish secession”.

Setting out his concern that a Scottish exit could have negative implications for Wales, he said in a speech for St Andrew’s University: “[Politically] we are the poor cousins among the home nations with little constitutional capital to shape our own future. It should surprise no one that the prospect of Scottish independence in 2014 struck many in Wales with a sense of foreboding.

“A Yes vote would have set Wales adrift – a constitutional coracle on a tempestuous ocean. That might yet be our fate post-Brexit.”

Funding is a problem for a federal UK

Mr Melding doubts whether the Scots would embrace a federal UK in which there is real reform of how cash is distributed.

He said: “Textbook federalism would require a rational, needs based funding system, but this would sharply reduce the Scottish block grant which makes it impracticable – certainly as part of a federation to keep Scotland in the UK.”

Arguing there is no guarantee that Brexit will lead to powers moving from Brussels to Wales, he said: “Some of the EU competences in fields otherwise devolved – environmental policy, agriculture and fisheries, regional aid – might be repatriated to Westminster, not Edinburgh and Cardiff.”

New momentum in Scotland - but a challenge for Wales

The push for Scottish independence gained new momentum after Scots overwhelmingly voted to stay in the EU in the June referendum but now face being taken out on the back of votes to leave in Wales (52.5%) and England (53.4%).

Commenting on the pro-Brexit votes, he said: “Wales still seems closely bound to England by the huge forces of economic deprivation, proximity and voting behaviour, as it was before the advent of devolution. The old fear that Wales is being steadily assimilated into its giant neighbour’s political culture has returned and is once again a source of anxiety for many political actors and observers.”

He suggested the result had “weakened” the negotiating position of the Welsh Government, adding: “The Brexit vote could mean that future changes to the constitutional settlement in Wales will be determined by the consequences of Scottish and, to a lesser extent, Northern Irish negotiations with the UK Government.”

Highlighting challenges faced by Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives as they adapt to the rise of Ukip, he stated that the “fate of Welsh devolution is in the hands of three frail veteran parties facing an insurgent party of uncertain potential”.