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Every offseason, NHL teams have to deal with a number of their players with expiring contracts and decide whether to give said players an extension or release into free agency.

The Toronto Maple Leafs this summer face an intriguing dilemma. According to Cap Friendly, the team currently has 17 players that are either RFAs or UFAs without a contract heading into the 2018-19 season.

Just looking at the list of players, there appear to be some obvious decisions as well as more tricky ones. As it stands, by the time July 1st rolls around not every one of the players without a deal will remain in the organization,leaving room for cap space and potential trades throughout the summer.

Previously, I looked at potential free agents the Leafs should realistically pursue if available. Today, we'll take a look at the Leafs current pending free agents to see what the team will do with all of them.

Renewals

Photo credit: TOM SZCZERBOWSKI-USA TODAY SPORTS



Out of the 17 players that the Leafs currently need to re-sign, I can confidently say that at least 7 of those players will be returning to the team for the 2018-19 season.

The most obvious one is William Nylander, who is coming off his entry-level contract. Since becoming a full-time NHLer a year ago, he has been one of the Leafs top scorers and has dominated the league at times when playing alongside Auston Matthews. Last season, he finished third on the team in scoring with a 61 point campaign (20 goals, 41 assists) and improved his abilities in the faceoff circle (51.4%).

In terms of a contract, it seems like Nylander will get a deal similar to David Pastrnak ($6.66 million for 6 years) and Nikolaj Ehlers ($6 million for 7 years), who I think are the best comparables to the 8th overall pick in 2014. My guess is that Nylander takes a contract at roughly $6.5 million for between 6-7 seasons, which would still allow some needed cap space for next offseason when players such as Matthews and Mitch Marner will be seeking a big payday.

Connor Carrick is another player that will likely get re-signed. Despite inconsistent playing time, this season was his best in the NHL with a career-high 12 points in just 47 games. He has a lot of upside and at just 24-years old, he still has room to grow and improve, and he's a right-shooting defender.

I expect a bridge deal that pays Carrick over $2 million a season for at least 2 years to prove his worth on the roster and limit the impact on cap space. Considering he has arbitration rights this year as an older RFA, it will be important that the Leafs get a deal done before the hearing later this summer.

In the farm system, the Leafs have a few players that will very likely be back for another season.

Andreas Johnsson headlines this group after making a nice impression with Toronto this year, scoring 3 points in 9 games plus 2 points during the playoffs. He also was a solid possession player with an incredible 57.1% Corsi-for during his brief NHL stint. After returning to the Marlies he became a man on a mission, dominating the competition to the tune of 16 points in just 12 games played, which currently leads the team.

Though these numbers are great and his development to this point has been exceptional (he was a 7th round pick in 2013), he still has a lot to prove at the NHL level. He will get his full-time role this fall, but it makes sense to also give him a 2-year bridge deal between $1.5 and $2 million a season. This way he can continue to progress and make strides with his game, while also working his way up to a possible long-term extension.

Rounding out this list, I can see Miro Altonen, Frederik Gauthier, Justin Holl, and Calvin Pickard being resigned. Considering they have all been integral to the Marlies run to the Calder Cup Finals and help fill positional needs on the Leafs roster, it makes sense to retain these players for at least a year or two.

In short, the majority of the players that need a new contract this summer will be returning to the Leafs come October.

Departures

On the flip side of the coin, I believe that at least 6 players will be seeking a new home on July 1st as the Leafs will likely let these players walk.

Starting with the main roster, Leo Komarov has been a fan-favourite for a number of years since joining the team during the 2013 lockout season. A consistently good defensive forward with a nasty edge and hard-nosed playingstyle, his best season came in 2015-16 where he scored 36 points and made an All-Star appearance (my, those were dark times!).

Fast-forward to this season and it's beginning to show that Uncle Leo has begun to fall out of favour as more youthful and skilled players like Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen have taken over his spot in the lineup. He scored just 19 points this year and barely played during the 2018 playoffs (just 2 appearances total), indicating that the Leafs were preparing for life without him. Though he has been one of my favourite players during the team’s rough years, it's hard to see a scenario where the 32-year-old stays with youthful forwards within the organization eager for playing time.

Tomas Plekanec, the big splash of this past season's deadline, has reportedly given indications that he wants to return to the Montreal Canadiens. After struggling to produce during the regular season, Plekanec stepped up big time following Nazem Kadri's suspension and scored 4 points during the 7 game series (tied for 4th on the team). He also showed grit and tenacity while playing the shutdown role and being a decent faceoff guy.

The problem is that, as previously stated, he doesn't appear to want to remain in Toronto for another year. Even if he does want to stay, it's hard to picture him willing to take a massive pay cut from the $6 million a season he’s been earning to assume the role of 4th line center. Though he did perform well in the playoffs, there's also a number of Marlies looking for a chance to compete so it doesn't appear that Plekanec will be back on the team for 2019.

Additionally, Roman Polak and Dominic Moore are likely to be let go as the team will be looking for upgrades at their respective positions. Starting with Moore, he was signed cheap to a 1-year deal with the intention of being the Leafs 4th line center. Unfortunately, to say this season was a disaster for him is quite an understatement. He quickly fell out of favour with Mike Babcock and his fate was sealed with the aforementioned Plekanec trade. Moore's return to Toronto will be short lived and will need to seek a new contract elsewhere.

As for Polak, the problem for him isn't so much that he's a right-shooting defender, but more to the fact his age puts him at a disadvantage. He was also used sporadically throughout the year (though he did recover from that knee injury from the 2017 playoffs) and wasn't a full-time roster player (54 games played), which is not a position you want to be in during a contract year. Add to the fact that the Leafs have more youthful options in the waiting, like Carrick and Holl, plus the likely new switch in play style with Kyle Dubas as GM, it's hard to see Polak returning next year.

Finally, there are two players on the Marlies currently who don't appear to be getting a contract extension: Colin Greening and Ben Smith. I understand both players have been key pieces for the team's playoff run this spring, but considering NHL needs it's hard to envision both being on the Leafs roster anytime soon.

Greening faces the problem of there being too many wingers in the organization and ahead of him. He does deserve another shot at the NHL so the Leafs should allow him to walk. Smith meanwhile disappointed last season in the role of 4th line center and was hindering the line in that position. Because of it, he has been stuck in the AHL and doesn't appear to be getting another shot with the Leafs anytime soon. He can be a serviceable player on a cheap deal for other teams so he could get an additional chance elsewhere (especially since he's just 29 years old).

To put it simply, the Leafs can comfortably let at least 35% of their pending free agents walk and find a new team in the offseason.

Question marks

With the majority of the pending free agents fate decided, that leaves 4 remaining players that the Leafs will have a hard time deciding whether or not to keep them on board for next season.

The most obvious player on this list is James van Riemsdyk, who has been at the forefront of trade rumours and speculation for over a year now. On one hand, I see JVR as a positive contributor to the offence and on the power play. He's consistently been one of the team’s top scorers nearly every year since he's joined the Leafs in 2013. This past season he posted a career high in goals with 36 and his net-front presence is a critical aspect of the power play being as good as it has been the past few years.

However, the two main issues that are worth noting to keeping JVR is his asking price and the high influx of young wingers in waiting. He could ask to make $5.5 million or more a season, but would the Leafs be comfortable giving that kind of money with Nylander, Matthews, and Marner due for a payday? The Leafs need to be smart with their cap space so that they can keep the core intact for as long as possible. Also, the fact you have many young wingers like Kapanen, Johnsson, Josh Leivo and many others on the Marlies desperate for an NHL role, it becomes harder to envision JVR on the team long-term.

The Leafs can either resign him to a team-friendly deal, trade his rights to get something out of him or let him walk to sign elsewhere. As it stands currently, the Leafs haven't given any indication as to what they will do with JVR.

Tyler Bozak is another pending free agent whose future with the Leafs remains unclear. Unlike JVR who's a winger, Bozak is a centerman, which is a position that Toronto has question marks around heading into the upcoming campaign.

This past year saw him struggle to produce (43 points in 81 games) after posting his best statistical season in 2016-17. Despite this, Bozak was still a positive contributor in the faceoff circle (53.6%), Corsi-for (53.3%), and puck possession. He can still be effective on the team and should he remain, he would likely slot into the 3rd or 4th line.

On the flip side, there are a number of centres previously mentioned that are seeking a shot at making the team next season. Altonen, Gauthier, and Par Lindholm are just a few examples of Marlies that could easily make the jump to the NHL full time in 2019. If that's the case, then it appears Bozak's time with the team is coming to an end.

It basically comes down to how comfortable the Leafs feel with their centre prospects. If management feels said players need more time, then Bozak comes back on a cheaper contract. If they are ready, then he leaves. For now, it's unclear which route the team will take.

Rounding out the list are two Marlies players in Martin Marincin and Kyle Baun, whose immediate and long-term future with the team is unclear currently.

For Marincin, he, too, has an unclear future with the team currently, but his position and shooting side could help him stay onboard. He hasn't been relied on for his offence this season (20 points in 52 games), but the 6'5'' and 212-pound defender has been a steady defensive presence that has helped bring the Marlies to the Calder Cup Finals.

It comes down to if the Leafs see Marincin as a useful depth option on their backend in case of injuries, or to look elsewhere for more youthful and skilled options. As the right side of the defence was one of the weaknesses this past season, he has a chance to remain on the team for another year. The problem is that he's fallen down the depth chart and was used sparingly since arriving. How he performs during the rest of the AHL playoffs could determine if he stays or walks.

Finally, Baun was one of the pieces the Leafs received from Montreal in the Plekanec trade at the deadline. He hasn't played a single minute in the AHL playoffs and had limited production offensively with the Marlies (just 6 points in 17 games). The reason he's listed here is simply to point out the potential for that trade to blow up in their face with Plekanec's likely departure.

While he is the grandson of former Leaf Bob Baun, it doesn't appear that Kyle will be able to reach the NHL anytime soon. At the very least, they can try and get something out of him to retain value in a trade instead of having both assets of that Plekanec trade walk away. Though in reality, since he has no future with the team, the Leafs could be content with just letting him depart.

Conclusion

Basically, out of the 17 expiring contracts the Leafs currently have I can say at least 7 of those players will be re-signed, 6 players will depart, and 4 players remain unclear. Of course, these numbers will change as the days pass leading up to July 1st, but what the Leafs decide to do with these players will determine which direction the team takes heading into next season and who they target once the free agent frenzy begins in a few weeks.

Regardless of what the Leafs decide to do, you can guarantee the roster will look very different come Opening Night.

All stats for this article are from Hockey-Reference.com.