Poll: Mike Espy leading Cindy Hyde-Smith, Chris McDaniel in Senate race

A poll commissioned by Democrat Mike Espy's U.S. Senate campaign shows him leading Republicans Cindy Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel in a three-way race as the two Republicans split votes.

The poll was taken by Chism Strategies in the days after Gov. Phil Bryant announced his appointment of Hyde-Smith to temporarily fill the seat until a Nov. 6 special election.

The special election will be a general election — no party primaries — and is likely to result in a runoff with no candidate getting more than 50 percent.

The poll was taken before Democratic Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton announced his candidacy, which could siphon votes from Espy, and Republican attorney and author Andy Taggart announced he is "seriously considering" a run. Taggart said he will likely announce a decision by the end of this week.

The poll of 603 likely general election voters shows Espy leading with 34 percent, Hyde-Smith with 27 percent and McDaniel at 21 percent.

A widely reported, although not publicly released, poll allegedly conducted by the National Senatorial Republican Committee earlier this year had Hyde-Smith trailing McDaniel and a generic Democratic candidate. The Espy camp's poll would indicate Hyde-Smith saw a bump from the governor's appointment and endorsement.

The polling memo details the "electoral math" for Espy to win, depending on the level of African-American turnout.

In the poll, Espy carried 18 percent of white voters; 26 percent of white voters under age 35. His overall 34 percent in the poll included 63 percent of the African-American vote. In its result summary to the campaign, Chism Strategies said historical vote patterns suggest Espy, if he's the only African-American candidate, would carry 95 percent of that demographic in a general election.

The polling memo said Espy would need at least 22 percent of the "other" vote — largely white voters — but even then would need black voter turnout to be around 39 percent, which would match what happened in Alabama when Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore.

Mississippi's black voter age population is 35 percent. The 2016 black voter turnout was 33 percent. At that turnout level and assuming Espy wins 95 percent of the black vote, Chism Strategies said he would need 28 percent of all other voters to win.

The poll also showed Espy with high name ID, 94 percent, and a 44 percent approval rating, including 33 percent approval among white voters. The poll was weighted at 35 percent African-American voters.

Espy, an attorney, served in the U.S. House representing the 2nd District from 1987-1993, the first African American to hold a Mississippi congressional seat since Reconstruction. He then served as secretary of agriculture during the Clinton administration, the first African American to hold that post.

Read more:

Bryant officially sets special U.S. Senate election, Hyde-Smith to be sworn in

Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton announces run for U.S. Senate

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