Climate change is an issue that will, and arguably is already starting to affect global food supply.

Scientists say that extreme weather events including the early start to the bushfire season in NSW and the recent Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines are likely to occur more frequently as the earth continues to heat up.

A leaked document from the UN appointed group, the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change, echoed this sentiment by stating that the greatest threat to the world’s food supply is climate change, and that the effects of climate change are likely to intensify as greenhouse gas emission continue to rise.

In order to minimise the impact of climate change on the food supply, researchers from around the globe are conducting various studies into how the industry can minimise the effects of a change in climate, and how best to manage the occurrence of extreme heat events.

Food magazine recently spoke to Dr Peter Hayman who has held the position of leader of Climate Applications within the South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI) since 2004.

As part of his research, Hayman assesses climate risk management and adaptation knowledge in South Australia, and has developed a new research capability for the state focused on understanding and managing climate variability and the impact of climate change on primary industries.

Hayman says that although the planet is predicted to experience a rise in temperature, a warmer climate may present some opportunities and well as challenges for Australia’s agricultural and food production industries.

“What we have a lot of confidence in is the rise of average or mean temperature, so warmer winters and summers and that has the general effect of plants growing quicker, which isn’t always a problem. But what you can find is that the development of plants is at a stage where faster growth can put things out of sync at bit. For example, with wine grapes, warming brings the ripening process from Autumn into late summer, that can be a problem.

“Of course we should acknowledge that there are also crops that open up new opportunities [in a warmer climate], and that is even within viticulture – there are some areas that are too cool for winegrowing. There are opportunities as well as risk with that sort of warming.”

Although there are a number of identified opportunities, Hayman explains that one of the greatest concerns that food producers face in terms of a changing climate is that of extreme weather events.

Spring heat events on wheat, and summer heat events on viticulture and fruit crops can have a damaging effect on production. As much of Australia is very water limited, Hayman explains that there is a real concern in terms of rainfall and long term drying of the land.

“There is a lot more confidence in the climate change surrounding temperature changes than there is surrounding rainfall, but certainly for South Australia, there is a growing trend – a worrying sense of projection of drying in the Southern part which impacts on both dry land farming, and on irrigation,” says Hayman.

“Linked to that is also a concern about the chance that even in a drier world, we may get more highly intense rainfall. If that highly intense rainfall occurs around harvest time, it can be a real problem, especially for a lot of horticultural products where quality is a premium – there is the potential for a lot of loss within that.”

Hayman explains that other pressing consequences of a warmer climate on food production is that of pests and diseases.

“There will be some pests that it won’t suit as well, but part of that is a changing spectrum. It might be that as the climate changes, there will be new insects, but it’s also possible that insects that are now at fairly low levels, may be able to increase up to pest levels.

“There has also been a lot of discussion about human health with the likes of malaria and dengue fever and those sorts of things. There is some work being done on weeds and pests in Australia, and how they may change, but one of the challenges is knowing exactly what the temperature range will be – there is confidence that things will be different, but exactly how the difference will manifest is always going to be hard to be specific about.”

Hayman states that the management of these extreme heat events is going to be an ongoing challenge for food producers, as they must be able to cope with different weather conditions and events.

“If we focus too much on one, of course the other one can come and hit us,” he says. “And I guess that is to the point that there is ongoing variability even with a trend, so even if we were expecting a drying trend, there will still be wet years.”

Even with the current predictions being as they are, Hayman believes that the Australian food producing industries have the capacity to adapt well, both in terms of the varieties of crops that we have, and also with the farming techniques we use.

“I just think … thatit is important to recognise that there is a lot of ability to adapt, but there is also a level of change that will be very hard to adapt to. Australian agriculture is exposed and is very sensitive to changes. There is, however, a lot of ways that you can see where people have adapted to changes in the past, and I think that there is capacity to do that in the future.”