Ontarians want the Progressive Conservative government to hold the line on teachers’ salaries, but most agree with education unions on class sizes and e-learning, suggests a new poll commissioned by the Star.

The Campaign Research survey appeared to confirm what education insiders have been saying for months — that in order to get onside with public opinion, the government needs to retreat from some of its controversial changes and the unions should make concessions on salary.

Many people “do not want to give the teachers a more than 1 per cent raise,” Campaign Research principal Nick Kouvalis said Monday, “but the teachers should be encouraged that the public is still with them during these rotating strikes.”

Campaign Research polled 1,536 people between Thursday and Sunday using Maru Blue’s online panel. It is an opt-in poll. For comparison purposes, a randomly selected sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points, 19 times out of 20.

All the education questions in the survey were formulated by the Star.

The poll found 52 per cent sided with the teachers over their opposition to high school average class sizes being raised to 25 students from the current 22.5. About one third — 36 per cent — backed the government’s proposed change, 7 per cent supported neither side and 5 per cent were unsure.

Similarly, 52 per cent agreed with the teachers’ opposition to students being required to take two mandatory online courses in high school. Only 28 per cent supported the government, with 11 per cent backing neither side and 9 per cent say they weren’t sure.

But when it comes to the issue of salaries, public opinion appeared to be leaning toward the government.

Asked if they backed the teachers’ demand for a 2 per cent cost of living wage hike or the government’s 1 per cent offer, 45 per cent agreed with Queen’s Park and 35 per cent with the educators. Some 13 per cent supported neither side and 8 per cent weren’t sure.

On what range of pay increase the teachers should receive, 12 per cent of respondents said there should be none, 32 per cent supported hikes of up to 1 per cent, with 35 per cent approving increases of up to 2 per cent and 9 per cent backing raises of more than that. Fully 12 per cent weren’t sure.

Respondents supported merit-based hiring, with 56 per cent saying that’s how school boards should fill long-term contracts and full-time teaching positions.

The current rules, which require boards to hire based on an applicant’s seniority on the supply-teacher list — an issue that’s become a sticking point at the bargaining table — only had the support of 25 per cent. Almost 20 per cent were unsure.

Campaign Research found those polled were divided on some of the teachers’ tactics during the job action. They also didn’t feel Premier Doug Ford or Education Minister Stephen Lecce were doing a good job.

More than half of those surveyed — 55 per cent — disagreed with bare-bones report cards, while 37 per cent agreed with the move, and 7 per cent were unsure.

Kouvalis said that suggests the teachers’ unions have to be careful not to “overplay their hand” by refusing to complete report cards with comments and grades.

Still, 48 per cent of respondents agreed with the elementary teachers suspending extracurricular activities like coaching sports teams and supervising clubs, with 45 per cent disagreeing and 8 per cent unsure.

Rotating strikes, which continue this week, had the support of 52 per cent of respondents, while 42 per cent oppose them, and 6 per cent said they are unsure.

About one third — 32 per cent — said the strikes have impacted their families, while 68 per cent said they haven’t. But 58 per cent said they were concerned the school year could be in jeopardy if the walkouts continued while 35 per cent were unconcerned and 7 per cent weren’t sure.

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Respondents were asked about the average annual teachers’ salary of $93,000, which 44 per cent felt was the right amount, 37 per cent felt was too high, 8 per cent said was too low, and 11 per cent were unsure.

There was support for the government legislating the teachers back to work, with 44 per cent backing that measure and 38 per cent opposing with 18 per cent unsure.

But 46 per cent opposed back-to-work legislation if it would mean giving teachers more than 1 per cent annual pay raises. Only about one third — 32 per cent — backed such a move and 22 per cent weren’t sure.

There was overwhelming support for continuing full-day kindergarten — a key issue for the unions representing elementary teachers — with 73 per cent backing it and only 15 per cent opposing it and 12 per cent unsure.

More than half of respondents — 54 per cent — wanted full-day kindergarten to continue to be taught by one full-time teacher and one full-time early childhood educator while 30 per cent supported the cheaper model of two full-time early childhood educators and 17 per cent weren’t sure.

In terms of approval in the handling of the crisis, more than half — 51 per cent — said Ford is doing a “poor” job, 13 per cent said “fair,” 14 per cent “good,” 10 per cent “excellent,” and 12 per cent were unsure.

Lecce fared a bit better, but some 34 per cent said he’s doing a “poor” job, 19 per cent said “fair,” 15 per cent “good,” 8 per cent “excellent,” and 24 per cent weren’t sure.

The teachers’ union leadership collectively was seen to be doing a “poor” job by 29 per cent of respondents while 21 per cent said “fair,” 23 per cent said “good,” 11 per cent “excellent,” and 16 per cent unsure.

Front-line teachers rated best of all, with only 21 per cent saying they are doing a “poor” job in the crisis compared with 22 per cent “fair,” 27 per cent “good,” 20 per cent “excellent,” and 11 per cent unsure.

Finally, 44 per cent said the government is being “too tough” on the teachers and should settle the dispute, while 42 per cent said the province “not give in to their demands.” Some 14 per cent had no opinion.

That was the last question Campaign Research asked in the survey, ensuring respondents had a more informed view of the overall issue.

Ontario teachers have been without a contract since the end of August.

Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

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