Group G, which includes Belgium, England, Panama and Tunisia, has the highest insurable value at over £2.3bn, according to the analysis.

Colombia, Japan, Poland and Senegal will battle it out in the ‘Group of Death’ for a place in the knockout stages – with just £26.5m separating the three teams in terms of valuation, Group H will be the most competitive in the tournament.

Having plotted the teams’ paths right through to the final, Lloyd’s predicts that Germany will fail to retain their title and France will be crowned World Champions. Similar analysis was undertaken by Lloyd’s and Cebr ahead of the 2014 FIFA World Cup which correctly predicted that Germany would be victorious.

The research also provides insight into the average insurable values of players:

Forwards are the most valuable players – their legs are worth £19.2m on average.

Midfielders have the largest share of total squad insurable value (38%).

Players aged between 18-24 years old have on average the highest insurable value at £20m.

Cebr used players’ wages and endorsement incomes, alongside a collection of additional indicators, to construct an economic model which estimates players’ incomes until retirement. These projections formed the basis for assessing insurable values by player age, playing position and nationality.

The analysis enabled Lloyd’s to predict who would qualify from their respective groups. Thereafter, Lloyd’s has plotted the path of each team in the knockout stages based upon their insurable values. The team with the highest insurable value in each match is the team Lloyd’s predicts to win and progress.

The research was supported by Sporting Intelligence, who provided anonymised footballer salary data for each of the 32 teams participating in the 2018 FIFA World Cup, based upon an indicative 30-man squad for each nation.

Victoria De’Ath, Lloyd’s Class of Business, said:

“Our model correctly predicted the winner of the 2014 FIFA World Cup so we wanted to put it to the test once again. The analysis makes interesting reading for football fans who are preparing for the most popular and widely viewed sporting event in the world.

“The contrast between the teams at the top and bottom in terms of insurable value is staggering, with the top six national teams worth more than the other 26 combined. We can’t wait to see if some teams can defy the odds and make it through, and if the favourites can prove their worth.”

About Lloyd’s

Lloyd’s is the world’s specialist insurance and reinsurance market.

With expertise earned over centuries, Lloyd’s is the foundation of the insurance industry and the future of it. Led by expert underwriters and brokers in more than 200 territories, the Lloyd’s market develops the essential, complex and critical insurance needed to underwrite human progress.

Backed by diverse global capital and excellent financial ratings, Lloyd’s works with a global network of over 4000 insurance professionals to grow the insured world – building resilience for businesses and local communities and strengthening economic growth around the world.