John Kasich

Ohio Gov. John Kasich speaks during a campaign rally in Wakefield, Mass., Saturday, Feb. 20, 2016. The Republican presidential candidate was in New England as results came in from the South Carolina primary.

(Michael Dwyer, The Associated Press)

CLEVELAND, Ohio - John Kasich was never going to win the South Carolina primary.

But by downplaying his need for a strong finish there - and by arguing that Jeb Bush couldn't afford a poor one - the Ohio governor and his advisers won the expectations game.

There was a sense leading up to Saturday night's results that Bush, the former Florida governor, would be the next Republican to drop out of the presidential race. Kasich's chief strategist, John Weaver, encouraged that speculation in a morning conference call with reporters.

"For all practical purposes, that campaign will come to an end today," Weaver said of Bush.

"We've already won there," Weaver said later on the call, "because however we do is going to help drive someone else out of the race. ... Whatever we get tonight - and I think it's going to be more than people expect - it will help narrow the field down to four people early next week."

Weaver was right about at least one thing. Bush ended his campaign after South Carolina returns showed him and Kasich each hovering around 8 percent of the vote and fighting for a distant fourth place.

How can Kasich, who fared no better than Bush did in the Palmetto State, continue on while Bush goes home? How can Weaver declare victory now - never mind the fact that he actually declared victory nine hours before polls closed? Here's where the expectations game comes into play.

The Team Kasich company line is its candidate, at this stage in the race, is exceeding expectations. Kasich's second-place finish in New Hampshire has translated into higher standing in national opinion surveys, more media coverage, new donors and some key endorsements.

Bush, meanwhile, underachieved until the end.

He entered the race last year as a presumptive front-runner given his deep political organization and flush financial resources. But through three contests, Bush had zero top-three finishes.

Basically, Kasich saw little to gain or lose in South Carolina. That's why he spent Saturday in Vermont and Massachusetts - two New Hampshire neighbors where his milder brand of politics is likely to play better. Both states are part of a "Super Tuesday" lineup on March 1.

The path to a Kasich nomination in July at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland is murky. The goal, which Weaver reiterated Saturday, is to collect delegates in the Northeast and select Southern states on Super Tuesday and then have a big night March 8 in Michigan and Mississippi. Then comes March 15 and Ohio, which awards all 66 delegates to the winner.

With Bush gone, Kasich is the last governor standing. If you told Kasich a year ago that this would be the case after South Carolina, he might have begun working on his speech for Cleveland. But South Carolina primary winner Donald Trump and two senators - Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz - finished in the top three Saturday. A fifth remaining candidate, Dr. Ben Carson, has no realistic path to the nomination.

Weaver sees the race coming down to Trump vs. Kasich and not ending until April or May.

Here are a few other takeaways from Saturday night's results.

I was wrong about Donald Trump.

After he lost the Iowa caucuses to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, I wrote that the billionaire real estate mogul was a paper tiger - that he folded as soon as the first votes of 2016 were cast. All Trump has done since is win the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries in decisive fashion.

I'll be very careful about underestimating Trump again.

The more Trump wins, the more the notion of unelectable gives way to the notion of inevitable. He has taken advantage of several factors, not the least of which is a national media that can't get enough of his circus act. But Trump wouldn't have such staying power if he lacked appeal.

Voters are looking for something different, and they are drawn to Trump over the less-charismatic Cruz. At this point, it's uncertain if and when the Republican establishment - the elite party donors and leaders - will unite behind an alternative. It might already be too late.

Rubio had a good - not a great - night.

Here's another lesson in setting expectations - a particularly tough one for Rubio.

The Florida senator reportedly had been banking on a "3-2-1" strategy - third place in Iowa, second place in New Hampshire and first in South Carolina. That play was shot after New Hampshire, where he was hurt by a poor debate performance. He worked hard for a Palmetto State rebound and got a late endorsement from popular Gov. Nikki Haley. But it wasn't enough.

The saving grace for Rubio is he kept things close with Cruz. The two were fighting for second place as final results came in Saturday. Rubio also commanded enough of the vote to argue that he, not Kasich, is the best establishment-friendly alternative to Trump.

At some point, though, Rubio needs a win to solidify his case. The race to watch over the next two weeks will be if he can pull ahead of Kasich decisively in the so-called establishment lane.

Cruz is in trouble.

The Texas senator is now 1-2 against Trump. The conventional wisdom has been that Super Tuesday, with its high concentration of Southern and evangelical voters, would be Cruz's firewall on March 1. But Trump did just fine with these voters in South Carolina.

And even if Cruz racks up some wins, he probably won't be able to build much of a lead in the delegate hunt, as the number-crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.com noted this week. The Super Tuesday states award delegates proportionally, meaning Cruz could win the popular vote in a state but only walk away with a few delegates more than Trump or another rival.

South Carolina was a chance for Cruz to steal Trump's anti-establishment thunder. It also was his chance to put some distance between him and Rubio. He failed on both counts.

Kasich needs more cash to contend.

The race now spreads out and becomes more expensive. And Kasich is not among the field's top fundraisers. A report his campaign filed this weekend with the Federal Election Commission showed he had $1.5 million on hand at the end of January. That doesn't reflect what he spent in the final days before New Hampshire or what he has raised since his big showing there.

Weaver, the chief Kasich strategist who spoke with reporters Saturday, insisted the campaign is in sound financial shape. He pointed to the addition of staff and offices across the country as a sign of strength. And he emphasized how Home Depot co-founder and GOP mega-donor Ken Langone backed Kasich after New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out this month.

You can understand why Kasich was so eager to see Bush go. He will heavily court Bush's contributors. But so will Rubio, and he could have an edge among Florida donors.

Kasich now sees this as a four-man race. To break through, he will need every last penny.