The media’s ACA obsession has obscured that the top concern of many is the economy. Why Dems should worry about poll

Here are four reasons Democrats should worry about the ABC News/Washington Post poll published today —

The intensity gap favors Republicans in a big way.


Dems lead 45-44 on the generic ballot, but Dan Balz notes in his write-up for The Post that they had a 5-point lead on the eve of their 2010 shellacking.

Among those who say they are “certain” to vote, Republicans lead 49-44. Independents who say they’re certain to cast ballots favor a generic Republican by 23 points (55-32).

( Also on POLITICO: Poll: Obama dips, GOP Congress up)

Both ABC and The Post played up their checks-and-balances question: 53% would rather see Republicans control Congress to check Obama’s power, while 39% want a Democratic Congress to advance his agenda. This figure matches what they found in September 2010 and shows the administration’s break-the-stalemate argument isn’t getting traction.

It’s the economy, stupid.

The media’s Obamacare obsession has obscured that the top concern of many voters remains the economy — and the prevailing sentiment among Americans is that things still aren’t going well.

Only 28% think the economy is getting better, while 36% say it’s getting worse and 35% say it’s stagnant. Among the 71% in the latter two categories, 62% favor GOP control of Congress. [There’s a legitimate correlation between one’s economic views and preference on the generic ballot.] Meanwhile, a consistent two-thirds of Americans think the country’s still off on the wrong track.

( WATCH: POLITICO's Driving the Day)

While half of Democrats say the economy is in good shape; only 22% of independents do.

On the other hand, ABC pollster Gary Langer notes that though “the brunt of economic unhappiness falls on the president, the public divides essentially evenly on which party they trust more to handle the economy – suggesting that the Republicans have yet to present a broadly appealing alternative.”

Democrats can also point to significant advantages on which party is better for the middle class and on “issues important to women.” Pluralities are with them on raising the minimum wage, gay marriage and climate change. Since they control the bully pulpit of the presidency and the Senate’s legislative calendar, they think they can use these as wedge issues to embarrass Republicans and galvanize their base.

Obama is an anchor threatening to sink the Democratic majority.

This might be the most important single sentence in the Post’s write-up: “At this point, Obama’s approval rating looks only slightly better than that of President George W. Bush in the spring of 2006.”

The headline getting attention this morning is that Obama’s approval rating is at 41%, the lowest of his presidency in the Post-ABC poll, down 5 points since March. He’s at 42% approval on the economy, 37% on implementing the Affordable Care Act (down seven from last month) and 34% on his handling of the Ukraine crisis.

Softness on the left helps explain the drop. His approval has slipped to 74% among Democrats, which should worry strategists already concerned about the base staying home.

Recall that these numbers are all among all adults, not registered voters — and certainly not those who say they’re certain to vote. Democrats are also defending Senate seats in seven states this year that Obama lost in 2012, when he was significantly more popular nationally.

Democratic incumbents have already been distancing themselves, and strategists note that their candidates did well in states like North Dakota in 2012 where Obama was already really unpopular. But in five of the seven states, incumbents are on the ballot — and GOP critics can attack them for voting with the president 90-plus percent of the time.

Watch to see whether these numbers drive incumbents in purple-to-blue states like Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota (in addition to House members in Michigan and Iowa) to put a little more distance between themselves and POTUS.

Very few feel helped by Obamacare.

One month ago, as the administration announced seven million enrollees in health plans at the start of April, Democratic strategists touted this same poll to argue that the worst of the Obamacare damage was behind them. That ABC/Post poll showed 49% supported of the law, compared to 48% against it. This indicator has dipped back to where it was at the end of last year: 44% support and 48% oppose.

As more of the benefits go into effect, it’s really striking how few people think the law is good for them.

Only 8% of registered voters say they think their PERSONAL health care costs are going down because of “the Affordable Care Act,” and 47% think their own expenses will rise! The causes of rising costs are debatable, but it really doesn’t matter: Many will continue to blame Obamacare for even the most minor inconveniences at their doctor’s office.

Only 14% say the ACA has made their personal health care better; 29% say it is worse, and 53% say it has no impact. Asked to think big picture, only 16% of independents say the law is making the health system better.

But it’s worth noting that the Democrats still lead by 8 points on the question of which party can most be trusted to handle health care. The DNC just blasted out a separate, new Kaiser poll that shows a majority favor “fixing” the law, rather than “repealing” it – as GOP candidates advocate on the trail. Kaiser found that 58% want their representative to “improve” the ACA, compared to 35% who want to repeal and replace it.

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The Post’s write-up.

ABC’s memo.

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