The bruising five-candidate Democratic primary took a toll on Democratic congressional candidate Donna Shalala, who is well-known in the district as the former president of the University of Miami. | Brynn Anderson/AP Photo Elections Democrats fear Shalala campaign is in ‘sleep mode’ while challenger surges

The congressional seat was supposed to be the easiest of Democratic pickups. Hillary Clinton carried the Miami-based 27th District by nearly 20 percentage points just two years ago. Donna Shalala, the Democratic nominee, was a well-known, former Cabinet secretary with a talent for raising money.

But now local Democrats are dismayed as Shalala is struggling to put away her Republican rival, a popular former Spanish-language television newswoman named Maria Elvira Salazar.


According to internal polls from both campaigns obtained by POLITICO, Salazar is either ahead — or just narrowly trailing — Shalala.

Salazar leads the former Clinton Foundation head by 7 percentage points in a poll conducted for the Republican’s campaign that was completed Thursday. In a poll from Shalala’s campaign, completed Sept. 1, the Democrat leads Salazar by 4 percentage points.

Either way, the race is far too close for Democrats in Miami, who have been buzzing for months that Shalala’s campaign appeared to run out of steam well before the Aug. 28 primary, when she squeaked by with a 4.4 percentage point win. Insiders had been expecting a blowout.

“Donna’s campaign changed in April. It went from active mode to sleep mode. And she hasn’t woken up,” said Grant Stern, a longtime critic of Shalala’s and a Miami-Dade County Democratic Executive Committee member, echoing the sentiment of party insiders.

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Stern said a friend of his, a middle-aged Democrat who knows Salazar but would like to vote for Shalala, complained recently to him that Andrew Gillum’s gubernatorial “campaign has already reached out to her. But she has never heard from Donna. Donna hasn’t messaged her. She doesn’t know what her platform is.“

“Donna needs to rescue this campaign. And now she needs to do it in two languages,” Spanish and English, Stern said.

But Shalala, 77, doesn’t speak Spanish. Salazar, 56, does.

The language gap could be a major edge for Salazar in a district where 57 percent of the registered voters are Hispanic, many of them Cuban-American like Salazar.

“The swing voters in that district are non-Cuban Hispanics,” said Congressman Carlos Curbelo, a Miami Republican and ally of Salazar’s. “They know her. They’ve watched her for 30 years report about Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Peru. Donna Shalala is going to have a really hard time connecting with them. This could be the biggest mistake Democrats have made in the recent political history of South Florida.”

Salazar gives frequent personal interviews in both Spanish- and English-language media, while Shalala is personally limited to the latter.

In Salazar’s poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, she led Shalala among Spanish speakers 70 percent to 15 percent, while Shalala led Salazar among English speakers by 52-30 percent.

In Shalala’s poll, conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International, the Democrat had a 55-27 percent edge among non-Hispanic whites but the Republican led among Hispanics by 55-35 percent.

Among the major differences between the polls: Shalala’s survey shows the Democrat winning independents by 16 points and Salazar’s shows the Republican winning independents by 9.

Also, Shalala’s survey includes third-party candidate Mayra Joli, who’s running as an independent Trump-loving “master of selfies” and is polling at 8 percent, behind Salazar at 42 percent and Shalala at 46 percent. The error margin for the poll of 600 likely voters in the district, completed Sept. 1, is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Salazar’s polling memo obtained by POLITICO Florida didn’t include Joli‘s numbers, but Curbelo and another source who had seen the survey said Salazar’s margin actually increased from 7 to 9 percent with Joli in the survey. Otherwise, Salazar is ahead of Shalala 51 percent to 42 percent in a two-way matchup. The error margin for the poll of 400 likely voters in the district, completed Thursday, is 4.9 points.

The bruising five-candidate Democratic primary took a toll on Shalala, who is well-known in the district as the former president of the University of Miami. Her opponents spent more than $1 million combined in negative TV ads and mailers against her.

Salazar, by contrast, had a crowded primary but her opponents were underfunded and disorganized. She pulled more than 40 percent of the vote in the nine-candidate GOP race Aug. 28, beating the second-place candidate by double digits.

In Salazar’s poll, 31 percent of voters had a favorable impression of Shalala and 30 percent a negative one, for a net favorability rating of 1 point. Salazar’s net favorability rating: 31 points (viewed favorably by 45 percent of the likely voters and unfavorably by 14 percent).

“Despite the massive negative ad campaign against Donna Shalala she ran a positive issues-based campaign about what she will deliver to this district,” Shalala’s pollster, Fernand Amandi, told POLITICO. “Voters in this district understand that a vote for Maria Elvira Salazar is a vote for Donald Trump, and his extremist chaotic agenda for America that she embraces.”

Democratic leaders in the state still believe that, regardless of the polling, Salazar won't be able to overcome Donald Trump’s unpopularity of Trump combined with the energy of Democratic voters. But there's still a persistent worry that Shalala's struggles could require a bailout from party donors in Miami who want to focus on defeating Curbelo and the area's third Republican member of Congress, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart.

One of the most popular politicians in the district, outgoing Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, has endorsed Salazar. Ros-Lehtinen won reelection to her seat in 2016 by 10 percentage points as President Trump was losing by 20 points.

Lesser noticed were the results of the contested 2016 U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, who carried the district by just 0.6 points despite a Democratic turnout advantage of 2.8 percentage points.

“Contrary to the narrative set by national Democrats, this district remains competitive and winnable for Republicans,” Salazar’s pollster, Jim McLaughlin, wrote in a polling memo that cautioned the race could be close.

“In addition to the political environment, past vote performance and demographics, the undecideds are leaning left of center,” McLaughlin wrote. “While Salazar is ahead, she must not take anything for granted and will need significant resources to continuing running a very strong campaign.”

