EVIDENCE 'WORLD'S TOUGHEST ANTI-SMOKING LAWS' NOT WORKING Labor's plain packaging fails as cigarette sales rise — The Australian, 6th June, 2014

Hello, I'm Paul Barry, welcome to Media Watch.

And how about that for news?

After a High Court challenge by the tobacco industry ... the threat of $3 billion a year in damages ... and warnings about the assault on freedom ...

Tough new plain-packaging laws for cigarettes don't even work.

And it must be true because it's a front page exclusive in the Australian.

LABOR'S nanny state push to kill off the country's addiction to cigarettes with plain packaging has backfired, with new sales figures showing tobacco consumption growing during the first full year of the new laws. — The Australian, 6th June, 2014

Smoking has increased!

Yes, can you believe it?

Well, as you may have guessed, the answer is no.

The public health expert who chaired the government panel recommending the new laws, Professor Mike Daube, told Media Watch the Australian's front-page story is rubbish:

Every bit of the report is dodgy, from the way it was set up, to what's in it, to the lack of analysis. — Mike Daube, Professor of Health Policy, Curtin University, 6th June, 2014

Well-known economist, Stephen Koukoulas, writing in his blog , The Kouk, was equally scathing about the Australian's scoop.

Fortunately, the story is wrong. — The Kouk, 6th June, 2014

According to Koukoulas, who has written regularly for the Australian's stablemate, Business Spectator, tobacco consumption in the first quarter of 2014 was:

... the lowest ever recorded ... It is a Great Depression for tobacco sales. — The Kouk, 6th June, 2014

To be precise, said the Kouk, government stats showed consumption of tobacco and cigarettes was:

... 5.3 per cent lower in the March quarter 2014 than in the December quarter 2012 when the plain packaging laws were introduced. — The Kouk, 6th June, 2014

The Kouk's figures come from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and if they are to be believed, those official stats make that Australian headline and much of the article either misleading or just plain wrong.

So what's going on? Well, to quote Koukoulas again:

It seems like The Australian is pushing, in a high profile front page story, baseless information fed to it from pressure groups with a vested interest to sell more tobacco and cigarettes. — The Kouk, 6th June, 2014

So what's the basis for the Australian's story?

Well, it's relying on the tobacco companies' claim that they sold 59 million more cigarettes to retailers in 2013 than they did in 2012.

But ... let's ask a couple of questions.

Do the figures mean more people are smoking?

Well, no ... the industry admits , the number of smokers fell in 2013 by 1.4%.

OK. So are the people who do smoke smoking more?

No again ... the average number of cigarettes smoked per person also fell in 2013 by 1.4%.

So... this second headline in the Australian:

Plain fact: more people smoking — The Australian, 6th June, 2014

Is also just plain wrong.

As the tobacco industry admits-but the Australian did not-the rise in wholesale cigarette sales figures is almost certainly explained by retailers trying to beat a rise in tobacco tax last December.

Now the Australian also quotes surveys from NSW and South Australia to back its claim that smoking is on the rise. But in fact the figures don't support that conclusion.

So one might ask, along with Professor Daube.

Why are they running this story? — Mike Daube, Professor of Health Policy, Curtin University, 6th June, 2014

Well perhaps part of the answer is that tobacco industry's profits have been hit by plain packaging as people switch to cheaper brands.

And does another part of the answer lie with Christian Kerr the author of the Australian's exclusive.

Kerr is a regular writer for that leading conservative think tank, the IPA or Institute of Public Affairs.

And the IPA is partly funded - although it loathes to admit it - by the tobacco industry .

Just before the last election Kerr gave this advice to the Coalition in the IPA Review:

End the Nanny State to win ... a majority of Australians-55 per cent-believe the country is becoming a Nanny State with too much government intervention and control of people's day to day lives. — IPA Review, August, 2012

Kerr linked growing concern about the nanny state to the new plain packaging laws for cigarettes.

And just to make his own views clear, he added:

Nanny Statism may give its enthusiasts a sense of moral superiority and general worthiness. But everyone else finds it simply offensive. — IPA Review, August, 2012

Well, not everyone.

Although the IPA's former director of Intellectual Property, Tim Wilson, is certainly among them.

Back in 2010, Wilson and the IPA were all over the media warning that Australian taxpayers could face $3 billion a year in damages if plain packaging went ahead.

That also turned out to be just plain wrong.

But ... four years later, the war over plain packaging is now being waged in Britain.

So it's great news for Big Tobacco that the Australian's claim about the laws not working has lit up the British press.

Australian anti-smoking laws backfire as sales rise — The Times, 7th June, 2014

Plain packaging has backfired in Australia - don't bring it to the UK — The Spectator, 10th June, 2014

This sort of coverage could be worth billions to Big Tobacco if it keeps plain packaging at bay.

It will also be useful in Ireland where parliament is set to debate new plain packaging laws introduced last week.

So it's not surprising that Professor Daube tells Media Watch:

The tobacco companies want stories in the UK that will say plain packaging hasn't helped in Australia. That's the main game for them at the moment. — Mike Daube, Professor of Health Policy, Curtin University, 6th June, 2014

And how lucky they are that the Australian will play it for them.

But it comes at a cost to the paper's reputation.

Not only has the Australian allowed an IPA spear carrier to lead its front page.

It has let him use figures that the government says are misleading and to make claims the experts say are garbage.

And all in the service of what? Freedom, truth, individual liberty?

Not according to Professor Daube.

MIKE DAUBE: This is the tobacco industry up to its dirty tricks again. It's just a beat up. It's a dodgy report. It's a dodgy industry. And always bear in mind this is an industry that relies for its profits on a product that kills one in two regular users. — ABC Triple J, Hack, 10th June, 2014

The Australian's editor Clive Mathieson told Media Watch he was "entirely comfortable" with the story.

He also told us Christian Kerr is not an IPA member and defended the report by saying :

...we are right to question the efficacy of a public health measure that credible data suggests is doing little more than encouraging smokers to switch from more expensive brands to cheaper brands. — Clive Mathieson, Editor, The Australian, Response to Media Watch questions, 15th June, 2014

Yes, The Australian is right to question it. But not to make claims that smoking has increased and the law has failed, when these are simply not supported by the evidence.