A warning to Blue Jays fans who may think the signing of Ervin Santana is now a slam-dunk.

The Orioles agreement with free-agent right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez for a reported four years, $50 million, may, in fact, signal that Santana, the other prime free-agent starter left, could be out of the picture for the Jays. It seems counter-intuitive but based on the GM’s history, may very well be true.

The Jays, Mariners, perhaps the Yankees and Royals are seen as top remaining suitors for the talented Santana, but if the Jimenez deal has, indeed, set his new market value, the thing to remember, the way Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos conducts his business is that he doesn’t “chase” contracts that he doesn’t think make sense. He prefers to stay within range of the value he set when his pursuit began.

Example? His boss, Jays’ president Paul Beeston recalled that several years ago Anthopoulos received ownership approval to sign Cuban free agent, Aroldis Chapman, to whatever dollar amount was needed. But when the Reds bumped up their offer, last minute, he backed away. He never chases.

The fact is that all of this past off-season, since the GM meetings following the World Series, Anthopoulos has kept a quiet interest in both Jimenez and Santana. But his strategy was to wait until the asking price dropped to a more realistic number, in line with his view. The Matt Garza free-agent deal with the Brewers likely re-set the market — four years, $50 million. The Garza difference was that there was no draft-pick compensation attached, so that fact should have opened up the bidding to more teams making Garza more expensive. With draft pick compensation attached, fewer bidders.

With Jimenez and Santana as the prime free-agent starters left, the Jays believed that with fewer teams willing to give up draft picks and with his own two first rounders protected, that as spring training approached the cost of doing business with those two coveted starters would go down. Wrong. The landscape changed again. The O’s had been interested in A.J. Burnett, but he preferred to remain in the NL and agreed to a one-year, $16 million deal with the Phillies. The O’s then moved to Jimenez.

Anthopoulos had continued to stay in touch with Jimenez and Santana reps. He has a solid relationship with both agents. Face it, the Jays’ GM always plays it close to the vest, offering very little information. Thus, he may or may not have established an informal, but understood ground-floor offer of three years and $27 million with the agents to cement his continued interest. But all of a sudden, the O’s, who had money to spend and an obvious need, in choosing to match the Garza deal for Jimenez, have blown the Jays’ strategy of patience out of the water.

The belief now is that if Santana and agent Bean Stringfellow are willing to come back to the Jays, to negotiate a lower figure than they’ve just witnessed, a deal may still be done. But if they are waiting for a Garza/Jimenez contract, then Anthopoulos, given past history, may well be out.

However, that does not mean for sure the Jays won’t add a 2014 starter. Beyond free-agency, there is the trade market, a method the Jays’ fifth-year GM has always preferred. And once again he has an inventory of spare parts that has value — as long as he doesn’t trade Aaron Sanchez or Marcus Stroman. The Jays have depth in the bullpen, young outfielders and other minor-league starters.

A trade would likely be in the spring. Anthopoulos has a history of playing draft-pick angles to the max (e.g. Miguel Olivo trade and release as Type B). If he trades for a pitcher with five-plus years service, who will become a free agent, then he would prefer to do it before Opening Day, otherwise he can’t manipulate the rules to make a post-season qualifying offer to obtain an extra draft pick if he signs elsewhere. This applies to a guy like Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs, who the Jays coveted earlier.

In summary, the bottom line is if the Jays do not sign Santana or trade for an established starting pitcher prior to the opener, then the off-season will have been an abject failure for Anthopoulos. The reason? The day the ’13 season ended, in the immediacy of a disappointing 74 wins, he emphatically stated his team needed to make changes in order to compete, strongly suggesting one, maybe two starting pitchers, anticipating free agency for Josh Johnson. Doing nothing now becomes a failure.

But all is not lost. Just because the off-season will have been a failure for the GM minus a starter, it does not mean that the 2014 season is a write-off. Anthopoulos has talked himself into believing that even without changes his rotation could be alright. Over the course of 162 games, he may be right, but the failure is that it’s not what he said, what he promised fans and hios players.

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What has happened to soften his once-firm resolve to add starters? There was the Arizona Fall League rebound from Tommy John surgery by Drew Hutchison. There’s the minor-league success and contagious self-confidence of Marcus Stroman. There was the great report on the renewed good health of Brandon Morrow. There is the successful late-season change in arm-angle by J.A. Happ. How about the second half rebound of R.A. Dickey and the continued consistency of Mark Buehrle? Finally, there’s the Cards’ example of Michael Wacha emerging from the minors in the second half to become a star.

Conclusion? Adding Santana, even on the same terms as Jimenez, is what the Jays should do but given history, is something Anthopoulos likely will avoid unless he or Santana has a change of heart.

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