To our politicians,

I would like to draw your attention to an important subject and this is the odd behaviour recently observed in the solar cycle and the possible implications for our climate and its policy implications.

Aim

The aim of this article is to:

make you aware of this phenomena.

make you aware of the possible implications in terms of climate

make you aware of the huge uncertainties

encourage you to support work to reduce the huge uncertainties

to encourage sensible precautions where the cost matches the real risk and uncertainties.

to encourage the appropriate level of awareness to avoid the kind of media speculation that would result in yet another media created scare.

Summary

There is a widespread suspicion that sunspots could have quite a dramatic impact on our climate with the suggestion that the current behaviour of the solar cycle may be a preclude to a period of exceptionally cold climate. If this were to happen at a time of rising fuel prices at a time when governments had been expecting rising temperatures and so lack preparedness, any severe weather could have far worse a consequence than is needed. The result of such lack of preparedness is bound to be severe hardship to many in Scotland. We can not alter the sunspots, nor can we change its effect on the climate, but we can at least ensure we are aware of the possible impacts. If we are armed with the best information to ensure government, private business and the public are able to take measures if these prove necessary, we are also armed to prevent the unnecessary waste of money that will result if this is turned into yet another groundless scare.

THE BACKGROUND FACTS

For a period of 70-years from 1645 to 1715 (known as the Maunder Minimum) the sun showed virtually no sunspots and this coincided with a period of extreme cold in an overall period which became known as the “little ice age”. This was not the only period of cold climate, but it is generally accepted that the worst of the cold climate did appear to coincide with a lack of sunspots. This could be pure chance: that a period of low sunspots just happened to coincide with colder climate or it may indicate a causal relationship. Unfortunately, given the lack of information on the climate at that time, and the lack of similar episodes, we can only speculate whether or not the relationship was causal or coincidental. We lack a detailed knowledge and cannot predict the change in sunspots except that they rise and fall around once a decade. We lack a detailed knowledge of how solar radiation, particles and various other facets associated with sunspots could interact with the atmosphere, but there is good evidence that they can affect the rate of particles which help to seed cloud.

THE CONCERN

The sunspot cycle has been behaving very “oddly” recently. (for details see: WUWT) In place of the normal fairly regular cycle, it has “gone out of rhythm”. One might use an analogy with the heart, but although it’s the same concept of a rhythm the analogy would be wrong if it suggested a “heart attack” as there is no indication at all that the sunspot cycle affects the sun. However it is behaving oddly, specifically:

1. The last peak was an odd double peak which extended the maximum

2. We then had a very slow drop to the minimum compared to normal

3. Then the normal rise in sunspot number was extremely delayed compared to normal

4.Now there are clear indications the sunspot cycle has peaked early and at a much smaller value than normal.

These are all indicators of unusual sunspot cycle activity. Individually most would not be unusual, but put together they do seem to indicate a pattern which is sufficient to raise concern in that:

1. It MAY indicate that we are about to return to another Maunder Minimum

2. That a Maunder Minimum MAY indicate a period of intense cold lasting …. all we can do is guess at the last period of 70years and say: “a long time”.

REQUIRED ACTION

First, you should be aware that this is a contentious subject because many who vociferously assert the relationship between manmade CO2 and climate also strongly deny any other natural impact on the climate particularly any relationship between climate and sunspots. The result is that there is a lot of misinformation on this subject: there is neither a clear relationship between climate and sunspots, nor is it correct to suggest there is no relationship. Given the state of knowledge, all we can say is that there MAY be a relationship between cold climate and sunspots.

In light of the above, I am not asking for any action except

to raise the general awareness of the subject.

to direct funding where it can assist in gaining more understanding of the possible implications of the abnormal sunspot cycle(s)



to examine our contingency plans to see whether there are any sensible measures we can take (with minimal cost implications) to ensure that our economic and social infrastructure would not be unnecessarily compromised by a long period of colder climate.