The Liberals had been reasonably confident they would hold Bennelong despite the bruising on-ground onslaught over the past month or so, but the relief from the prime minister on Saturday night was palpable.



In fact there was something in the vibe of the night which took me back to election night in 2016, when Turnbull was overcome by emotion (on that occasion, shock and blind fury, where on Saturday night, it was pure joy) – while Bill Shorten, the loser of the federal contest, deftly positioned himself as the victor.

The reasons for the Turnbull ebullience are obvious. A loss in this contest would have reversed all the shoring up the prime minister has managed to do in recent weeks in a concerted effort to finish 2017 upright, and in the Lodge.

If Kristina Keneally had prevailed in Bennelong, Turnbull would have been plunged into minority government, and while that might not be the end of the world for some leaders, it would have been for him, given enemies would have resumed their relentless sniping, and ill-discipline would have reasserted itself – and that sad story generally only ends one way.

Turnbull has dodged a bullet, and he knows it.

While the prime minister certainly deserves to raise a small glass to himself during the festive season, given he has outflanked his opponents and held on in a year that has been pure adversity on every level, it would be prudent to do it in private.

Let me put this another way. It would be extremely foolish of the prime minister to present to voters as an all-conquering hero, an arrogant politician with nothing to learn, nothing to account for and nothing to apologise for, because that hubris is entirely out of proportion with reality.

Anyone watching politics in 2017 knows we have been dished up a complete shocker. Given it’s been a year to drive a saint mad, and I don’t say that lightly, voters are fatigued with the circus, and surly.

No one, apart from the most rusted-on partisan, or the most dewy-eyed optimist, looks at their prime minister and sees an all-conquering hero – they see a leader of a three-ringed circus who has, luckily, on this occasion, dodged a bullet.

While politicians are eternally frustrated with political commentators and their theatre criticism, I think I can say this without fear of contradiction. In politics, it really is best to see yourself as the voters do, because for a person who lives or dies by the ballot box, no other reality exists.

Anything else is a distraction and a delusion, and potentially a lethal one.

John Alexander’s humility on the night hit the right note. The prime minister’s triumphalist tone, not so much.

As for Bill Shorten, he’s developed something of a minor specialty in concession speeches that make it sound like Labor has won, but the fact of the matter is Labor lost in Bennelong on Saturday night.

The swing to the ALP was certainly respectable, but it wasn’t mind-blowing.

Labor’s official line on Saturday night was that a national anti-government swing of 5% plus would see them in government. That’s true on paper, but it’s not true in reality.

Incumbent governments have suffered swings in byelections before and gone on to win general elections.

And swings in general elections aren’t usually as dramatic as in byelections, they aren’t usually uniform, and they often vary between states and between individual seats.

Whatever the spin on the night, Labor invested huge resources in the contest, and was hoping for a better result.

The Bennelong loss won’t matter much if the Labor leader is open to a conversation about where the offering might be falling short, if the party can ask itself tough questions – like are we giving voters what they need to trust us to govern again, given the epic disaster of the Rudd/Gillard period remains fresh in the collective consciousness of Australians.

Because without some honest reflection and careful self-analysis, political movements can fall into a trap.

They can find themselves stuck in a rut of dressing up defeats as victories – and that’s a party trick that gets real old, real fast.