Politics Will Obama Drag Down Hillary Clinton in 2016?

Andrew Kohut is founding director of the Pew Research Center.

There’s no question that Hillary Clinton would make a formidable presidential candidate. She routinely polls as America’s most admired figure, and voters gave her high marks during her tenure as the country’s top diplomat. But Hillary Clinton has a potential problem. His name is Barack Obama.

While she had to contend with “Clinton fatigue” in 2008, “Obama fatigue” is her potential stumbling block this time. Should dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and disapproval of Obama persist as 2016 approaches, the former secretary of state may well struggle to position herself as an agent of change.


For now, she is once again the early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Public views of her are much like what they were as she looked ahead to her first presidential run. In fact, Clinton’s current Pew Research Center favorability rating is almost identical to what it was in 2005. The profile of her most enthusiastic fans resembles her initial constituency, before Obama emerged as a viable candidate. And when tested, she is the hands-down favorite to become the Democrats’ standard-bearer in 2016. For the moment, there’s simply no other contender in sight.

But at the same time, disillusionment with Obama could significantly undermine her current standing. The president’s approval numbers at the start of 2014 are in the low 40s in both the Gallup and Pew Research Center polls—10 points lower than in January 2013, and markedly lower than Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton’s ratings as they entered their eighth years in office. More ominously for Democrats, Obama’s personal image has slipped. Over the course of 2013, the percentage of the public viewing Obama as “able to get things done” fell from 57 percent to 43 percent, and those regarding him as “trustworthy” slipped from 59 percent to 50 percent.

If Obama’s polling troubles persist as 2016 approaches, Clinton might have a problem with voters who want change. Other presidential candidates have had hard going when voters were dissatisfied with the times and/or their bosses. Take for example, George H.W. Bush’s 1988 campaign, which was underwater for much of that year until President Ronald Reagan’s ratings improved over the summer.

Potential problems notwithstanding, Clinton’s national image is quite strong, even though her ratings have dipped a bit since leaving Foggy Bottom. A 56 percent majority of respondents in an October Pew Research Center nationwide survey rated her favorably, somewhat lower than she tested in December 2012 (65 percent) near the end of her term as secretary of state. But there’s little indication that Republican criticisms of her handling of last September’s attacks in Benghazi, Libya, have seriously eroded her public standing. The Washington Post polling unit noted that the dip in her polls this year was concentrated among conservatives, and “despite the modest erosion in what was sky-high support, Clinton remains among the most popular secretaries of state in recent history, matching or exceeding Condoleezza Rice and Madeleine Albright’s popularity and far more popular than Donald Rumsfeld, Warren Christopher and Alexander Haig.”

More importantly for 2016, Clinton is especially popular among those who will pick the next nominee. Among Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic, fully 82 percent of the base holds a favorable view of her, and as many as 38 percent say they have a very favorable view of the former first lady. She is best regarded by women, liberals, older people and more affluent Democrats—the same constituencies that nearly won her the nomination in 2008.

Here’s the potential problem: Demographics notwithstanding, views of Clinton among Democrats correlate strongly with views of Obama. No fewer than 71 percent of Democrats who hold a highly favorable view of Obama feel the same way about Clinton. And the converse is true: Democrats who are unenthusiastic about the president are also unenthusiastic about Clinton—just 29 percent rate her very favorably.

And Clinton faces another potential challenge: the desire for change that divides the Democratic base between populists and centrists, given that she was married to one centrist Democratic president and worked for another. The appeal of populism among Democrats in 2016 cannot be discounted. Sixty percent of Democrats continue to say their finances are not in good shape, even as many of them see the stock market and real estate values having recovered. Little wonder that a September Pew survey found 62 percent of Democrats saying that regulation of financial organizations has not gone far enough, compared with just 32 percent of Republicans who hold that view.

Views of Clinton among Democrats correlate strongly with views of Obama.

None of this seems to bother potential primary voters for now. A November NBC News survey found fully 66 percent of Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic saying they would vote for her if a presidential primary were being held today. Only 14 percent reported they would vote for another Democrat.

But the primary, of course, is not being held today.

How well these numbers hold up will have a lot to do with how well the president fares. It is certainly too early to make a clear judgment about how Obama or in turn Clinton will be evaluated by the voters in 2016. Whether an improving economy discourages voters from taking a chance on little-known candidates, or a faltering one encourages it, will be central to Hillary Clinton’s chances. While the former first lady and secretary of state is her own person and one with a longstanding bond with the American people, her political fate will be much influenced by the most basic of tensions in all political campaigns—the desire for continuity versus the desire for change.