When will COVID-19 peak? A state-by-state analysis

Peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 is expected by mid-April in the U.S., according to an analysis from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle.

The study presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.

While peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators, will occur at the national level in two weeks, this varies by state. About a third of states, including New York, are projected to hit peak capacity in the first half of April, but some states will see the most demand for hospital resources in May.

Below is the projected date of peak hospital resource demand in each state according to the model, which uses data last updated April 1.

April 8

New Jersey

April 9

Louisiana

Michigan

New York

Vermont

April 11

Delaware

Washington

April 15

Alaska

Connecticut

District of Columbia

April 16

Massachusetts

April 17

Alabama

Colorado

Maine

New Hampshire

April 18

Pennsylvania

April 19

Indiana

Ohio

Tennessee

April 20

Illinois

Nevada

Rhode Island

April 21

Mississippi

North Dakota

April 22

Minnesota

April 23

Nebraska

Oklahoma

Utah

April 24

Georgia

New Mexico

April 26

Arkansas

California

Idaho

Montana

North Carolina

April 27

Arizona

Wisconsin

April 28

Kansas

South Carolina

April 29

Maryland

May 1

Iowa

May 3

Florida

Hawaii

May 4

South Dakota

West Virginia

Wyoming

May 5

Oregon

May 6

Texas

May 16

Kentucky

May 20

Virginia

May 21

Missouri

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