The Russian leader is top of Forbes magazine's power-list, but that power is merely illusory

For a self-styled man's man in a mean man's world, Forbes magazine's decision to anoint Vladimir Putin as the planet's most powerful hombre risks raising his notoriously volatile machismo to bursting point.

The pint-sized Russian leader does not deserve this ego-inflating boost. Russia's president, ex-prime minister and much-muscled main man is already basking in the spurious role of peacemaker after he (and others) persuaded the Syrian regime to surrender its chemical weapons, indirectly heading off a US military strike.

This double-edged diplomatic coup is presumably one of the reasons why Forbes's editors accorded him the No 1 slot in this year's 72-strong power list, ahead of Barack Obama, China's Xi Jinping, and Pope Francis, in that order. They seem to forget the Syrian civil war is still raging unchecked, fuelled by Russian arms.

Putin's penchant for having himself filmed bare-chested, riding feisty mustangs or facing down bemused Siberian wildlife with large guns plays to the male power image. So, too, does his not-forgotten intimidation of German chancellor Angela Merkel (No 5 on the power list) with a large dog in one of their first meetings.

But the Forbes power-pickers seem happy to swallow all that. They also appear overly impressed by Putin's decision to give safe haven to Edward Snowden, the NSA whistleblower. "Anyone watching this year's chess match over Syria and NSA leaks has a clear idea of the shifting individual power dynamic [between Putin and Obama]," said Forbes's Caroline Howard.

Her logic is difficult to follow. Snowden acted on a matter of conscience and point of principle – not the way Putin does things. People who follow their consciences in Putin's Russia have a way of ending up in jail, as many political opponents and the Greenpeace Arctic 30 can testify.

Putin's rise comes as Obama's stock has fallen. His perceived dithering over Syria cost him support in Congress and abroad while the recent US government shutdown, when the president appeared a hostage to events, angered the American public and worried the international markets. Fairly or not, Obama was seen as weak and vacillating.

But the praise for Putin from Forbes, a magazine that supposedly champions individual free enterprise, as a man who "has solidified his control over Russia", is jaw-dropping. If power is to be measured by the successful imposition of authoritarian governance, then surely Kim Jong-un, North Korea's dictator, should be Forbes' No 1? On this basis, Saddam Hussein and Joseph Stalin would qualify for emeritus awards.

In point of fact, Putin's power is largely illusory – a false idol erected and nurtured by a phalanx of Kremlin cronies, and maintained through control of Russia's fast-depleting oil and gas revenues and an ever more repressive grip on civil society and the media.

As a former British ambassador to Moscow pointed out in a recent Guardian interview, Russia's economic power is faltering amid entrenched structural problems, under-investment, capital flight, a brain drain and adverse demographic trends that Putin's policies have only exacerbated.

"The premise that Russia has become more assertive is correct," said Sir Andrew Wood, Britain's envoy in Moscow from 1995 to 2000. "Is this due to weakness or strength? Weakness, probably. There are growing problems with the economy, large internal problems and tensions."

Russian cold war era influence in the Middle East has largely been eclipsed by the US, hence Moscow's last-ditch stand in defence of the Assad regime. In Asia, China and Indonesia are the big new players, and likewise China in Africa.

Even in eastern and southern Europe, Russia's attempts to maintain leverage over former allies and satellites is failing. Poland, former East Germany and Czechoslovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia (plus the rest of former Yugoslavia), and Georgia have already gone west, while Ukraine and Moldova are set to move into the EU's orbit at (Nov)November's Vilnius summit.

Forbes's concept of power looks strangely warped in respect of other individuals. Women such as Merkel (5), Brazil's Dilma Rousseff (20), and India's Sonia Gandhi (21) are rightly chosen. But there is no place on the list for Hillary Clinton, the former first lady and US secretary of state who may well become the next US president.

The idea that David Cameron (11) or Mario Draghi (who he?) (9) or King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia (8) have more global pull and influence than the internationally high profile Clinton is plain daft.

• This article was amended on 31 October 2013. The earlier version described Vladimir Putin as "Russia's prime minister, ex-president and much-muscled main man".