Mark Phelan

Detroit Free Press

SOUTHFIELD, Mich. -- Some 55% of auto buyers said they'd be very likely to buy a partially autonomous vehicle –- one that drove itself on the highway or in traffic jams, said Xavier Mosquet of Boston Consulting Group.

Forty-four percent said they'd buy a fully autonomous vehicle that does all the driving, with more than 20% saying they'd pay $4,000 for the feature.

If regulations don't push the industry toward self-driving cars, customer demand will, Mosquet said.

In addition, new engine technologies may reduce fuel consumption as much as 40% over the next few years, he said.

Electricity, weight reduction and other techniques will increase as automakers and suppliers gear up to reduce fuel consumption and emissions, but improvements to gasoline and diesel engines will play a huge role, speakers at the Society of Automotive Anaysts and Citi Research Automotive Investor Summit said.

Electric and hybrid vehicles will rise from 3.6% of U.S. vehicle sales this year to 9% in 2020, Itay Michaeli of Citi Research said. Surprisingly, EV/hybrid's share of U.S. sales is on track to fall for the first time in ten years in 2014

On the other hand, EVs' global market share could triple by 2025 if there's a major reduction in battery cost, Ken Kcomt , Nissan North America product planning director, said.

Other major developments that will reduce fuel consumption and reward the automakers and suppliers who invested in them, according to speakers:

• A dramatic shift to nine- and ten-speed automatic transmissions over the next decade, Borg Warner director of investor relations Ken Lamb, predicts.

• Significant growth in use of continuously variable automatic transmissions as other automakers adopt the component Nissan adopted 20 years ago, Nissan North America product planning director Ken Kcomt.

• 3D printing will be used commercially to make some vehicles and parts, Ravindra Kondagunta, CEO of TractionLabs said.

• Carbon fiber won't be widely used on volume vehicles until its price falls to $5-$8 from at least $10 a pound today, Ford manager of global materials and manufacturing research Matt Zaluzec said.