UFC on Fox 8 is headlined by a flyweight title fight between Demetrious Johnson and John Moraga. However, the bout that is perhaps drawing the most attention is the co-main event. #3 ranked UFC welterweight Rory MacDonald will meet Jake Ellenberger (ranked #4). MacDonald is 5-1 in the UFC, riding a four-fight win streak and is coming off a big win over former champion BJ Penn. Ellenberger, 8-2 in the UFC, holds notable victories over Jake Shields, Diego Sanchez and most recently Nate Marquardt. Many fans ask who will win this bout, and no fighter takes a huge lead in the betting odds. It’s safe to say this one will be close.

Here is a breakdown of each fighter and the fight itself:

Rory MacDonald

The 24-year old Canadian prospect has generated a lot of hype. In six UFC bouts, his only loss came to former interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit. That was three years ago. Since then, no one has been able to halt the rise of “Ares”. Recently, he completely destroyed former champ BJ Penn. For three rounds, he dictated where the fight took place, showing improved striking, battering the ex-champ en route to a unanimous decision. Although his striking has improved, displaying excellent punching, kicking and foot work in his last bout, his bread and butter is his wrestling. Like his training partner, current welterweight champion Georges St.Pierre, MacDonald has explosive takedowns and some of the best top control in the sport. When he gets on top of an opponent, he’s difficult to get off, and from the top position he has accurate and powerful ground and pound. This was evident in his bout with Che Mills, where he stopped Mills with ground and pound in the second round. He also has good submissions. He won his UFC debut via armbar. UFC commentator Joe Rogan has often mentioned how great MacDonald’s footwork is also, and that he cuts angles well when setting up strikes. MacDonald is a well rounded fighter, dangerous wherever the fight takes place, and he possesses outstanding cardio. An advantage I give to MacDonald in this fight is his range and versatility. MacDonald has a 3.5 inch reach advantage, and he incorporates kicks in to his striking attack far more then Ellenberger does.

Jake Ellenberger

Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger was so close to a title shot. This was until he saw his 6-fight win streak snapped by Martin Kampmann back in June of 2012. Two wins later, Ellenberger finds himself in arms reach of a title shot once again. Ellenberger might be the biggest power puncher in the UFC’s welterweight division (no disrespect to number one contender Johnny Hendricks). He’s won two ‘Knockout of the Night” awards, but finished two other bouts with strikes that didn’t receive the award. That’s 4 out of 8 wins he’s finished, and the men he has knocked out include some of the sports elite. Mike Pyle, Sean Pierson, Jake Shields, and Nate Marquardt all needed a referee to mercifully step in to save them from Ellenberger’s hands. The thing that makes Ellenberger so special is that he’s no boxer or muay thai world champion, his background is in wrestling. He can control where the fight takes place, and if he needs to take it to the ground, he more than likely will be able to. But yet, Ellenberger has still managed to become this elite striker. If you watch his fight with Diego Sanchez, Ellenberger displayed patience and self-control , dominating on his feet to win a decision. He even dropped the iron chinned Sanchez with a counter punch, something Joe Rogan described as “high level striking”. In this fight, the advantage I give Ellenberger is power. MacDonald hasn’t KO’d anyone with a single strike. He uses a volume of strikes to get the job done. On the other hand, Ellenberger has shown he can stop a fight with one well-timed punch.

The Fight

Cardio shouldn’t be a factor in this bout. Both men have shown they can go the distance in a tough fight. Macdonald will likely look to use jabs and kicks to keep Ellenberger on the outside and prevent him from landing one of his big shots. He can do this for three rounds like he did against Penn and search for a decision win, or he can use his strikes to hunt for an opening for a takedown. From top position, he will use ground and pound to try and earn a stoppage victory. It is unlikely either men will get a submission. MacDonald has never been submitted, and Ellenberger has only been submitted once in 35 fights. For Ellenberger, he will need to get past the reach of Rory, and get inside and land one of his big shots. It is unlikely Ellenberger will takedown MacDonald, because Rory should have a slight grappling edge. I don’t think either man will get a takedown for that matter, since both are great wrestlers. If one fighter was to get the takedown though, expect that it would be Rory MacDonald.

My Prediction

Rory Macdonald is very promising. His talent is evident, but he hasn’t yet achieved enough to live up to his hype. A win over BJ Penn is big, sure, but Penn is a natural lightweight (155 lbs). MacDonald is a huge welterweight, often cutting down from 200 lbs to make 170 lbs. The Penn fight was Rory’s fight to win just on size alone. Other than the win over Penn, he hasn’t defeated anyone ranked top 10 or any other world champions.

Ellenberger has many big wins. He’s knocked out two former world champions while fighting in the UFC, and a win over an Ultimate Fighter winner in Diego Sanchez. Not only does “The Juggernaut” defeat these elite opponents, but he knocks them out or dominates them, making them look like average.

In his bout with Che Mills, MacDonald showed you can get inside his reach and land shots. Before MacDonald began to take him down at will, Mills was getting in close and landing some big shots. If Mills can do it, I have full confidence Ellenberger can, too. The difference this time though is Ellenberger is a great wrestler, while Mills’ ground game has appeared weak. Ellenberger will get in close and land big shots, and be able to defend against takedowns. MacDonald will get desperate and leave an opening, and this is when Ellenberger will land a big punch and turn out the lights. Ellenberger wins by first round (T)KO.

UFC on Fox 8 takes place on July 27

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