SOdhner Graduate Poster

Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Arizona Posts: 1,744

SOdhner Originally Posted by We can talk all day about the nearly infinite variety of errors and fallacies presented by Jabba in this thread, but it's clear that the most fundamental issue is the Sharpshooter Fallacy. Jabba Originally Posted by - We have a lottery barrel of 100 tickets, one of those being yours. And your ticket was drawn. What is the likelihood of your ticket being drawn if this was a fair lottery?



Jabba, two things we need to get across to you:



1. In this scenario presumably the one you refer to as "your ticket" was assigned BEFORE the drawing, not after - right? As in, the tickets were numbered and prior to any drawing I would know that I would only win if the ticket with my specific number (let's say 22) was drawn? Do you understand that if I got to pick my number after the fact (as in, first ticket #22 is drawn and THEN I decide that's my ticket) then it's 100% chance that I'll win?



2. If every ticket belongs to someone, then once a ticket is drawn someone will win. So the chance of someone winning is 100%, and no matter which of the 100 people it is they can say "Golly, that's amazing! It was only a one in a hundred chance!" So there's a 100% chance that the winner will be only one in a hundred, which means it's not actually notable.



But as always, you won't understand that. Literally the very next post.Jabba, two things we need to get across to you:1. In this scenario presumably the one you refer to as "your ticket" was assigned BEFORE the drawing, not after - right? As in, the tickets were numbered and prior to any drawing I would know that I would only win if the ticket with my specific number (let's say 22) was drawn? Do you understand that if I got to pick my number after the fact (as in, first ticket #22 is drawn and THEN I decide that's my ticket) then it's 100% chance that I'll win?2. If every ticket belongs to someone, then once a ticket is drawn someone will win. So the chance of someone winning is 100%, and no matter which of the 100 people it is they can say "Golly, that's amazing! It was only a one in a hundred chance!" So there's a 100% chance that the winner will be only one in a hundred, which means it's not actually notable.But as always, you won't understand that.