NEW DELHI Private weather forecaster Skymet has downgraded its outlook for this year's monsoon to 'below normal' from its earlier forecast of normal rains for the season, saying August and September were likely to witness depressed rainfall.

The forecaster had in April predicted that the June-September rainfall was likely to be 100% of the long period average (LPA). India's official weather agency, the India Meteorological Department , had also forecast a normal monsoon but pegged the season's rainfall lower at 97%.

In its update released on Wednesday, Skymet said the monsoon could end up at 92% of LPA, with August likely to see poor rainfall at 88% and September performing a shade better at 93%. "The monsoon is likely to go into a prolonged weak phase during August," the release said.

Currently, at the halfway stage of the season, the monsoon has a deficit of 7% (as on August 1), with the sowing month of July having seen rainfall at 94% of LPA. Rains in the first three weeks of July were good over central and south India, after which the monsoon turned weak in these regions . The last week of the month, however, saw a monsoon surge over paddy-growing regions of UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, where large rain deficits had affected kharif crop sowing, particularly paddy. After these wet spells, just seven out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions in the country currently have rainfall deficits, with the worst-hit being Rayalseema.

Among the factors Skymet said could affect rains was the continuing warming in the Pacific Ocean that points to the formation of an El Nino. IMD is also scheduled to release its forecast for the second half of monsoon in the next few days.

