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Without ‘drastic actions’ to boost growth, Africa will be home to 90% of people living in poverty globally by 2030. This is the sombre conclusion of the World Bank’s latest regional outlook, in which it also cuts the continent’s growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.6%.

Uncertainty in the global economy is accentuating the effects of slow reform, according to the Bank. Combined with the halving of average growth from around 5% before the commodity price slump, to 2.5% between 2015-2019, the prospects for poverty reduction are looking grim.

On current trends, the Bank warns, poverty ‘will soon become a predominantly African phenomenon’.

It’s a striking, and predictable conclusion.

For at least a decade there have been warnings that a general lack of structural economic reform has seen GDP growth have – at best – limited impact on poverty levels. In absolute terms, the number of poor people in sub-Saharan Africa actually increased from 278 million in 1998 to 416.4 million in 2015.

Even if governments suddenly got serious about reform the odds of a change in trajectory are diminishing against a backdrop of fiscal tightening and soaring debt, further constraining their ability to tackle poverty.

With global economic uncertainty and sluggish growth looking like they’re here to stay, the price of slow reform is becoming painfully obvious.

This report reflects the views of the author alone, not those of How we made it in Africa.

Today’s picks

From the continent

Ethiopia could give up majority control of its telecoms monopoly ‘in the future’, the director general of the country’s communications authority has said, as it gears up for much-anticipated liberalisation of the sector. The process is expected to attract significant interest from operators including South Africa’s MTN, Vodafone and Orange. More: Bloomberg

Tunisia has released businessman Nabil Karoui, the runner-up in the first round of presidential elections in September, days before a runoff vote on October 13. Karoui will face Kais Saied, and independent, in the vote. More: Africanews

The global perspective

Bloomberg has reported that Nigeria is looking to recover as much as $62 billion in past profits from international oil companies for failing to comply with a 1993 law entitling the state to a greater share of revenues if the price per barrel exceeds $20. If confirmed, the move will likely add to concerns about the country’s operating environment for foreign companies. More: Bloomberg

Exxonmobil has awarded contracts worth $13 billion to build a large liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in northern Mozambique, according to the country’s oil and gas regulator. The $23.6 billion project is part of an investment boom into vast untapped reserves set to turn Mozambique into a major global supplier. More: Bloomberg

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