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Normally, political types wouldn’t pay much attention to a poll released in mid-summer. Last week’s EKOS poll for iPolitics was, however, something different.

It’s not just that it shows the Conservatives in deep trouble, just over a year before the October 2015 election. It’s the size of the sample (2,620 Canadians) and the time in the field (an entire week from July 16-23) that make the findings impossible to dismiss.

This isn’t the one bad poll in 20. And it wasn’t a one-night stand. The Liberals now lead the Conservatives by 38.7 to 25.6 per cent, with the NDP at 23.4 per cent. In effect, the Liberals have doubled their vote from the 18.9 per cent they received in the 2011 election, while the Conservatives have plummeted from 39.6 per cent to the mid-20s.

The Liberal brand is back. The Liberals lead in every province except the Tory heartland of Alberta and Saskatchewan. And where it matters most — British Columbia and Ontario — the Liberals lead not by a little but by a lot: 37 to 22 in B.C., where the NDP is actually in second place at 26 per cent, and 46 to 28 in Ontario. Those are blow-out numbers, pointing to a Liberal sweep of the lower B.C. mainland and the Greater Toronto Area.

In Quebec, the NDP lead with 37 per cent, with the Liberals at 30 per cent, the Bloc at 16 per cent and the Conservatives at a measly 12 per cent. This means the Liberals would re-gain most of the Montreal and Outaouais regions, with the NDP retaining most of their seats in the rest of the province. The Bloc would disappear and the Conservatives would be shut out, except perhaps for a couple of seats in the 418 Quebec City region.

In the Atlantic zone, the Liberals lead the Conservatives 53 to 29, with the NDP at 21 per cent. What the Conservatives are getting Down East is pushback from voters on employment insurance reforms, much as the Liberals did in the 1997 election. These numbers point to the Liberals winning all but a handful of the 32 seats in the region.

It isn’t just the regionals that should concern the Conservatives. It’s the demographics. Not only do the Liberals lead the Conservatives among men (40-28, with the NDP at 20 per cent), the Tories fall to third place among women (Libs 37, Dippers 27, Cons 23). And the Liberals lead in every age demo — even in the 45-64 and 65+ segments, traditional Tory strongholds.

Around the table at the morning meeting in the Langevin Block last week there was, perhaps, an impulse to wave off these numbers — because EKOS president Frank Graves is thought to tilt Liberal. If so, that would be incredibly stupid.

Paradoxically, this might be the worst outcome for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, who would be called upon to form a minority government in which NDP Leader Tom Mulcair would hold the balance of power.

Graves called the Quebec and Ontario elections in April and June to within 1.5 points in both cases. And his methodology — a hybrid of telephone, automated response and Internet samples — is virtually bulletproof, with a margin of error of less than two points.

The one caveat is that EKOS was in the field a month ago, and four weeks is a long time in politics. But a government’s poll numbers usually improve in the summer, when the House isn’t sitting. Voters are in cottage country and politicians are on the barbecue circuit.

What should really worry the Conservatives is how the EKOS popular numbers would translate into seats in the new 338-seat House, with 15 new seats in Ontario, six more in both Alberta and B.C. and three more in Quebec. In a seat projection for iPolitics based on the EKOS poll, analyst Paul Barber sees the Liberals forming a minority government with 156 seats, the NDP retaining Official Opposition status at 95 seats — and the Conservatives falling from government to third place at 86 seats. Stephen Harper wouldn’t even be in Stornoway. He’d be in Calgary.

Which, paradoxically, might be the worst outcome for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, who would be called upon to form a minority government in which NDP Leader Tom Mulcair would hold the balance of power in a House where 170 votes makes a majority. This would be make it very expensive for him to seal the deal on the first Liberal budget. A better outcome for Trudeau might be winning government over two elections — first as Opposition leader in a minority Conservative House, where he could prove himself ready to be prime minister, something he clearly hasn’t done yet.

For the NDP, the EKOS numbers are fairly efficient, especially in Quebec, where they stand to retain 35 to 40 of the 59 seats they won under Jack Layton in 2011. Mulcair runs a highly disciplined operation in the House, with coordinated question period attacks in both languages. And his Quebec caucus is under standing orders to work their ridings hard on weekends and periods like the summer recess. Mulcair deserves much credit for all of that. And he has good approval numbers — the best of the three leaders. What remains to be seen is whether he’s the guy voters would like to have a beer with.

With the House resuming in just four weeks, the Conservatives need to get on a winning streak in the fall sitting. Harper caught a break on Friday with the revised July StatsCan Labour Force Survey, which showed 42,000 new jobs created last month, rather the lousy 200 new ones first reported. Since the current government was elected in 2006, the Canadian economy has created 1.66 million jobs. There’s nothing wrong with that narrative, and with the economy as the Conservatives’ signature issue. Quite simply, they need to own it.

The Conservatives also need to work on persuading their own voters to return to the fold. Progressive Conservatives are leaving the Tory tent because they’re turned off by wedge politics (like the attack on the Supreme Court) and puerile politics (like the anti-Trudeau attack ads). Red Tories would never vote for the NDP, so they’re turning to the Liberals. Red Tories and Blue Grits are very much alike — socially progressive but fiscally conservative.

Bottom line: The Conservatives can’t go into the Christmas recess with poll numbers like this. If they do, Harper may have another kind of decision to make about the future — his own.

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The EKOS Poll Click any chart to expand.

L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94. The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.