I struggle to find topics to write about. Because, for me, if I don’t think a topic is interesting to write about, I don’t know how it could possibly be of interest for anyone to read. The past two weeks I’ve started and deleted several excel and word documents; I get to the point where I say to myself “this is garbage”, I take a shot of Fire Ball, and I start over.

So I aimlessly wandered around the Internet in search of a topic until I saw a picture of Shin-Soo Choo. I checked out his Fangraphs page, scrolled to last season, and saw that he had a 50 point increase in his OBP from 2012 to 2013, which is convenient for him that this happened in a contract year.

How often does a player improve his OBP this drastically? Choo increased his BB% by over five percent in one year (15.7% in 2013 and 10.6% in 2012), but should we expect this to happen again next year?

Since 2003 there have been 123 players (with a minimum of 300 at bats in each season) that have improved their OBP as much or more than Shin-Soo Choo from one season to the next. There have also been 214 instances where players have improved their OBP by 39 points or more, but we’ll focus on the top 200 hundred to keep the number round.

Highest Increases in OBP

Name Season OBP DIFF Adrian Beltre 2004 0.098 Casey Kotchman 2011 0.098 Jason Giambi 2005 0.098 Mike Napoli 2011 0.098 Tony Womack 2004 0.098 Josh Hamilton 2010 0.096 Matt Kemp 2011 0.089 Ray Durham 2008 0.085 Cristian Guzman 2008 0.085 Magglio Ordonez 2007 0.084 Omar Infante 2008 0.084 Travis Hafner 2004 0.083 Brandon Phillips 2006 0.082 Gaby Sanchez 2013 0.082 Dustan Mohr 2004 0.08 Hanley Ramirez 2013 0.08 Barry Bonds 2004 0.08 Carlos Gonzalez 2009 0.08 Scott Spiezio 2006 0.078 Alex Cora 2004 0.077 Corey Patterson 2010 0.077 Mike Lamb 2006 0.077 Aubrey Huff 2010 0.075 Brandon Inge 2004 0.075 Justin Morneau 2010 0.074 Alex Avila 2011 0.073 Carlos Pena 2007 0.073 Geovany Soto 2010 0.072 Michael Cuddyer 2013 0.072 Josh Bard 2007 0.071 Justin Morneau 2006 0.071 Mark Ellis 2005 0.071 Alex Rios 2012 0.069 Jose Bautista 2011 0.069 Ryan Howard 2006 0.069 Marlon Byrd 2007 0.068 Aramis Ramirez 2011 0.067 David Bell 2004 0.067 Jeff Keppinger 2012 0.067 Kelly Johnson 2010 0.067 Bill Hall 2005 0.066 Daric Barton 2010 0.066 Jayson Werth 2007 0.066 Michael Bourn 2009 0.066 Milton Bradley 2008 0.066 Yadier Molina 2007 0.066 Luis Matos 2005 0.065 Ramon Vazquez 2008 0.065 Alberto Callaspo 2011 0.064 Mark DeRosa 2006 0.064 Dioner Navarro 2008 0.063 Jose Reyes 2011 0.063 Derrek Lee 2005 0.062 Garrett Atkins 2006 0.062 Ichiro Suzuki 2004 0.062 J.D. Drew 2004 0.062 Aaron Hill 2012 0.061 Adrian Beltre 2010 0.061 Julio Lugo 2008 0.061 Ryan Theriot 2008 0.061 Alex Gonzalez 2005 0.06 Austin Jackson 2012 0.06 Corey Patterson 2006 0.06 Jason Bartlett 2009 0.06 Placido Polanco 2007 0.059 Omar Vizquel 2010 0.058 Ben Broussard 2004 0.058 Bill Hall 2010 0.058 Carlos Beltran 2006 0.058 Clint Barmes 2008 0.058 Joey Votto 2012 0.058 Morgan Ensberg 2005 0.058 Reed Johnson 2006 0.058 Chone Figgins 2007 0.057 Emilio Bonifacio 2011 0.057 Jayson Werth 2012 0.057 Jeromy Burnitz 2004 0.057 Joe Mauer 2006 0.057 Martin Prado 2012 0.057 Freddie Freeman 2013 0.056 Joe Mauer 2012 0.056 Ken Griffey Jr. 2007 0.056 Pat Burrell 2004 0.056 Brady Clark 2004 0.055 Ian Kinsler 2010 0.055 James Loney 2013 0.055 Jonathan Lucroy 2012 0.055 Scott Hatteberg 2006 0.055 Adam Lind 2009 0.054 Colby Rasmus 2010 0.054 Jose Reyes 2006 0.054 Paul Konerko 2004 0.054 Aaron Rowand 2007 0.053 Brian McCann 2008 0.053 Deivi Cruz 2004 0.053 Dmitri Young 2007 0.053 Jhonny Peralta 2013 0.053 Mark Ellis 2010 0.053 Nick Punto 2008 0.053 Reed Johnson 2008 0.053 David Murphy 2012 0.052 Jermaine Dye 2006 0.052 Jonny Gomes 2012 0.052 Jorge Posada 2007 0.052 Wilson Betemit 2010 0.052 Carlos Lee 2011 0.051 Buster Posey 2012 0.051 Gary Matthews Jr. 2006 0.051 Gerald Laird 2008 0.051 Manny Ramirez 2006 0.051 Melky Cabrera 2012 0.051 Nick Punto 2006 0.051 Ryan Braun 2009 0.051 Craig Monroe 2004 0.05 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2013 0.05 Chipper Jones 2005 0.05 Edwin Encarnacion 2012 0.05 Geoff Jenkins 2005 0.05 Jay Bruce 2010 0.05 Juan Encarnacion 2005 0.05 Michael Young 2011 0.05 Nick Swisher 2006 0.05 Ryan Spilborghs 2010 0.05 Shin-Soo Choo 2013 0.05 Colby Rasmus 2013 0.049 Aramis Ramirez 2004 0.049 Brian Giles 2005 0.049 Cliff Floyd 2007 0.049 Daniel Murphy 2011 0.049 Eric Hosmer 2013 0.049 Gerardo Parra 2011 0.049 Miguel Cabrera 2013 0.049 Steve Finley 2006 0.049 Cesar Izturis 2004 0.048 Prince Fielder 2007 0.048 Casey Blake 2006 0.048 Mark Teahen 2006 0.048 Eric Chavez 2004 0.047 Miguel Cabrera 2009 0.047 Chase Headley 2011 0.047 Robinson Cano 2009 0.047 Abraham Nunez 2005 0.046 David Wright 2012 0.046 Kenny Lofton 2005 0.046 Adrian Gonzalez 2009 0.046 Alex Rodriguez 2005 0.046 Gary Sheffield 2009 0.046 Jason Bay 2008 0.046 Jim Thome 2010 0.046 Joey Votto 2009 0.046 Juan Rivera 2006 0.046 Carlos Ruiz 2010 0.045 Chris Snyder 2007 0.045 Jeff Francoeur 2007 0.045 Mark Ellis 2012 0.045 Nelson Cruz 2009 0.045 Ramon Santiago 2010 0.045 Ryan Klesko 2004 0.045 Brad Ausmus 2005 0.045 Carl Crawford 2009 0.045 Chipper Jones 2008 0.045 Hunter Pence 2011 0.045 Jerry Hairston 2011 0.045 Miguel Cabrera 2006 0.045 Omar Infante 2013 0.045 Robinson Cano 2006 0.045 Troy Tulowitzki 2009 0.045 Wily Mo Pena 2006 0.045 Jason Bay 2005 0.044 Justin Smoak 2013 0.044 Nick Markakis 2008 0.044 Chris Davis 2013 0.044 Frank Thomas 2004 0.044 Jamey Carroll 2006 0.044 Lance Berkman 2011 0.044 Brian Roberts 2005 0.043 Derek Jeter 2009 0.043 Jose Valentin 2006 0.043 Adam Lind 2013 0.043 Alex Rios 2006 0.043 Lyle Overbay 2008 0.043 Chris Davis 2012 0.042 Ivan Rodriguez 2006 0.042 Paul Goldschmidt 2013 0.042 Terrence Long 2004 0.042 Alfonso Soriano 2006 0.042 Casey Blake 2004 0.042 Coco Crisp 2004 0.042 Eric Chavez 2012 0.042 Freddy Sanchez 2006 0.042 J.T. Snow 2004 0.042 Jacoby Ellsbury 2013 0.042 Jason Varitek 2007 0.042 Manny Ramirez 2008 0.042 Nelson Cruz 2010 0.042 Adam Dunn 2012 0.041 Alcides Escobar 2012 0.041 Mike Lowell 2006 0.041 Brian Dozier 2013 0.041 Eric Young 2004 0.041

Out of the 200 players that increased their OBP the most from one season to the next, 28 of those players’ OBPs continued to go up or staid the same in the third season, 39 players didn’t play in the third season—they either retired, did not accumulate enough playing time in the third season to qualify, or they played in 2013 and their fate remains to be seen—and 132 players had their OBP go down.

What concerns us most, to see if we can expect Choo’s OBP to stay the same or increase in 2014, are the 28 players in the last decade that had as big or bigger of an improvement in OBP from one season to the next as Choo did from 2012 to 2013, and replicated or improved on that success in the third season.

These are those 28 players: Chris Davis (2012), Nelson Cruz (2009), Mike Lowell (2006), Robinson Cano (2009), Marlon Byrd (2007), Pat Burrell (2004), Miguel Cabrera (2009), Carlos Gonzalez (2009), Omar Infante (2008), Paul Konerko (2004), Mark DeRosa (2006), Lyle Overbay (2008), Jayson Werth (2012), Jason Bay (2008), Joey Votto (2009), Nick Swisher (2006), Yadier Molina (2007), Morgan Ensberg (2005), Brandon Phillips (2006), Chris Snyder (2007), Mike Lamb (2006), Scott Hatteberg (2006), Alex Rios (2006), Troy Tulowitzki (2009), Bill Hall (2005), Chase Headley (2011), Coco Crisp (2004), Jose Reyes (2006). The year listed is the middle year in the three year run.

Two primary groups of players emerge when we look at these players. The first group is made up of players in the formative parts of their careers: Joey Votto and Yadier Molina. The second group is the player who develops power that he did not have in the previous season: Chris Davis and Robinson Cano.

Shin-Soo Choo doesn’t fit into either of these groups; he’s not developing as a player anymore, and he didn’t manage to hit more homeruns than he ever has before like Chris Davis did in 2012 and 2013.

But there is also a third group of players: uncategorized. The players in this group are Mark Derosa, Mike Lamb, and Morgan Ensberg. Players that it would be foolish to use inference and try to come up with a reason why they played well all of a sudden.

Let me borrow a metaphor that Nicholas Nassim Taleb uses in the Black Swan. Imagine a cube of ice on the floor. Now imagine it melt into a puddle. See it in your head transform from a cube with perfectly distinct and symmetric sides gradually melt, precipitate moisture, and divulge into a puddle on the ground. Easy enough, right?

Now, try and picture a puddle of water on the ground and picture it develop into an ice cube. It not as easy, is it? I mean I don’t even want to try and right about it.

This metaphor just shows that even though we know what happened in the past, that doesn’t mean we know why it happened.

Derosa, Lamb, and Ensberg aren’t Shin-Soo Choo. But that doesn’t mean that Choo won’t fall into the third group of players that we cannot explain.

It’s seems unlikely that Choo will have as good of year last year as he did this year when it comes to his BB%, but now that he calls the Ball Park in Arlington his home, there still needs to be an additional recalibration for his projected numbers. Beyond Choo, this exercise shows that unless an improvement in walks comes from a player in development, or a batter that changes his approach to generate more power, we should be skeptical about his outlook for the next season.

Devin Jordan is obsessed with statistical analysis, non-fiction literature, and electronic music. If you enjoyed reading him, follow him on Twitter @devinjjordan.