As election looms late this fall, Newfoundland and Labrador premier begins to feel the chill

NL’s Davis sees job approval slide ahead of November 30th election

September 1, 2015 – Almost forgotten outside Canada’s easternmost province is the fact that the federal election isn’t the only time voters will go to the polls late this fall. But while Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Paul Davis gears up to try to win his party another term on November 30, his job approval rating has been on a slide since the spring.

An Angus Reid Institute (ARI) analysis of quarterly online survey results from more than six thousand Canadian adults shows Davis – sworn in a year ago – has seen approval from respondents in his province drop eight points in the last three months, from 39 per cent in late May and early June to 31 per cent at the end of August.

Davis – the third Conservative premier since that party won the October 2011 election – has seen his popularity fall with energy prices, while criticism of his leadership has flared over plans to fund long-term care beds through public-private partnerships. That said, Davis’ job approval is the same as that of Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne and, indeed, better than that of New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant, his counterpart on the other side of the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Gallant’s job approval has sunk a total of fifteen points since March, falling from 40 per cent at that time, to 27 per cent In June, and a further two points over the summer (25%). He has been on the defensive lately over limp job growth.

Also recording a slight decline: Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger (22%). His statistically insignificant drop of one point (23% in June) ranks him once again as the least-approved-of premier in Canada.

For Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, the honeymoon hasn’t quite ended. Down three points from June, she still enjoys the approval of half (50%) of the people in her province for the job she has been doing since winning an historic election May 5.

Meantime, Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne ends a slide that has seen her job approval decline ten points from 41 per cent in the summer of 2014, to 31 per cent. This represents no change from late May-early June.

Trending upward is Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, up two points from spring to 63 per cent. He retains his hold as most popular premier in the country. Also on the plus-side: Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil, up three points to 40 per cent.

The rebound also continues for Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard, whose job approval stands at 41 per cent, up six points overall from March (35%). In British Columbia, Christy Clark also sees a two point gain since the last quarter (32%).

The rest of the provincial trendlines can be viewed below:

Click here for the full report including full tables and methodology

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Shachi Kurl, Senior Vice President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org