At the time of writing, Senator Bernie Sanders is receiving a 50% chance of being the winning candidate on February 3rd, at a wide distance from former Vice President Joe Biden, who is currently trading at 26 cents on the dollar. Both are followed by Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren, with 20% and 14% chances respectively. The market is giving any other candidate a 3% chance.

Remember we introduced different types of odds on the site at the end of last year. Nothing changes in terms of the outcomes’ probabilities or possible payouts when changing view, but if you prefer to see the odds in a multiplier style, for example, just go to the upper right of the page and select that format. If your prediction is Bernie Sanders you can make about 2x on your money. Risking a little more, make over 4x betting on Biden, 5x with Buttigieg and up to 7x if you trust Warren! All great multipliers for your initial stake.

Chaotic Latest Polls

The highly anticipated CNN/Des Moines Register poll focused on the upcoming Iowa Caucuses was released last Friday, just hours before the deadline to qualify for the seventh Democratic debate, with Bernie Sanders leading its results. The data shows 20% of likely Democratic caucus goers named Bernie as their first choice for president, having increased his support by 5 points since November.

On the contrary, Pete Buttigieg, who had been the leader of the Iowa race 2 months ago, has now faded slightly, falling by 9 points. Warren ranks second in the poll with 17%; Buttigieg 16% and Joe Biden 15%.

In addition, a slew of other contenders fell below the 15% viability mark. Senator Amy Klobuchar and billionaire executive Tom Steyer, the other two candidates who have made January’s debate, have remained at 6% and 2% respectively. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang grew his support from 3% in November to 5% this month, but hasn’t qualified for the debate due to not hitting the polling threshold, and Senator Cory Booker, polling at 3%, surprised many yesterday by cancelling his campaign.

But if you believed that the poll above made things more clear, yesterday a new Monmouth University poll was released showing Joe Biden as the frontrunner for the Iowa Caucuses. The Former Vice President gained 5 points from Monmounth’s November data and is polling now at the top of that leaderboard with 24%. Bernie Sanders has gained a remarkable percentage too, but stays in second place polling at 18%.

The disparity between the latest two polls sets the stage for a crucial three weeks of intense campaign preceding February 3rd. All within the 25%-15% support range, it seems any of the 4 leading candidates could win the first of the Democratic primary votes.

The 7th Democratic Debate, Today

The first debate of this new year takes place today, Tuesday 14th, at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. CNN will co-host the debate with The Des Moines Register and broadcast it live from 9 to 11 pm EST.

As we have seen before, only six candidates met the requirements for qualifying this time: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer.

Candidates who participated in the December Democratic Debate, co-hosted by PBS NewsHour and Politico in Los Angeles

It hasn’t been long, but a lot has happened in the world in the few weeks since the last debate of December 19. Bushfires in Australia have grown to catastrophic levels and terrible flooding has devastated Indonesia. Both disasters are expected to be used to put climate change on the table tonight. Tensions between the United States and Iran spiked during the last days following the assasination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Furthermore, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she plans to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate very soon, which could be followed by a Senate trial on President Trump’s removal from the White House.

The smaller debate size will likely give each candidate more time to speak about these recent events and other crucial Democratic nomination topics like healthcare, economic inequality and education will almost definitely come up.