[Spoilers for the Serial podcast below.]

As most of us expected, Serial ended without coming to any sort of definitive conclusion. Host Sarah Koenig did revisit several of the lingering issues we had questions about, and more new information was brought to light in this 55-minute finale than had been over the course of the last few episodes combined. Koenig spoke with Don, Hae's new boyfriend at the time of the murder. She had an insightful conversation with one of Jay's coworkers at the porn shop. She looped in the show's producers, who determined that the "Nisha Call" might not look as bad for Adnan as we initially thought (it turns out, it's possible that it was never answered, meaning it could've been a "butt dial"). She even reconnected with Deirdre Enright and her team of law students, who put forth the idea of a serial killer committing the crime, even giving the name of a criminal who was released in the area days before the murder and who had committed similar crimes. What we thought wouldn't amount to much more than Koenig wrapping up how she came up empty and what we can all learn from it ended up being one of the most substantive episodes of the season.

Unfortunately for Adnan, most of that substance only helped confirm the suspicion that he is guilty after all (though that hunch by no means justifies a conviction). Here are three of the most telling moments of the finale as far as the "Adnan is guilty" contingent is concerned:

The dubiousness of Jay's testimony fed our curiosity about what really happened to Hae more so than even the lack of evidence. There were holes, there were inconsistencies, and he just didn't seem like someone we could trust. In the finale, Koneig spoke with Josh, one of Jay's coworkers at the porn-video store—not a friend, mind you, a coworker—and his account of how scared Jay was about someone being out to get him lent more credence to Jay's story than anything we'd heard in previous episodes. Josh said that Jay was paranoid and "almost in tears" about how "people connected to the murder" were "after him." Jay didn't mention Adnan's name to Josh, but did say that the person was Middle Eastern, which, of course, doesn't look good for Adnan. Jay still seems sketchy as hell despite this, but Koenig is right in noting that she "finds Josh's version of Jay's fear so much more believable than Jay's version of Jay's fear, which makes me wonder if it's just in the delivery." There are still inconsistencies, but this insight from Josh justifies Jay's skittishness and hesitancy more than anything we've heard so far.

Breakups can be messy, and just because Adnan and others maintain that he was over Hae doesn't necessarily mean this was the case. It's clear from Hae's diary that by January "her romantic feelings are completely absorbed by Don." Koenig says that there was some confusion as to Hae and Adnan's post-breakup status, and that it may not have been until they returned from Christmas break that Adnan realized just how completely Hae had moved on to Don. "Maybe that's when reality sets in for him and that's when the emotions hit him, and so maybe he does kind of lose it," says producer Dana Chivvis. Koenig questions this by saying that none of Adnan and Hae's friends at the time saw it this way, but isn't this precisely the type of thing Adnan would have been internalizing, maybe not even aware himself of his lingering feelings for Hae? Combine this with forensic psychologist Charles Ewing's quote from last week's episode about how the idea of murder can creep up in people and then unexpectedly manifest itself, and it isn't hard to imagine how everything may have come to a head when Adnan got a ride from Hae that fateful afternoon.

There's also the issue that if Adnan is innocent, he was the victim of an almost unbelievable string of bad luck. Koenig brings back on Dana Chivvis, whom Koenig describes as the most logical member of the Serial staff (their "Mr. Spock"), to run down Adnan's unfortunate coincidences, if he is indeed innocent. Here's what she mentions:

The bad luck of "loan[ing] this guy who ends up pointing the finger at you for the murder your car and cell phone for the day your ex-girlfriend goes missing."

The bad luck of Adnan and everyone surrounding the situation confirming that he got a ride from Hae that day, and then Jay telling the cops that "Adnan's plan was to get in Hae's car by telling her that his car was broken down and asking her for a ride."

The bad luck of the "Nisha Call." They determine earlier in the episode that it's plausible that the call was a butt dial, but still... What are the chances? That's pretty damn unfortunate that a girl who only Adnan knew was butt-dialed from his phone on the day Hae went missing, and that the guy with the phone ends up blaming Adnan for the murder. As Chivvis says, "That sucks."

The bad luck of Jay's story and the cell-phone records roughly matching up from around six o'clock to around eight o'clock, the time when Jay said they were burying the body, and that Adnan has no memory of where he was during that time.

Chivvis concludes that "in order to make him completely innocent of this, you have to just think, 'God, you had so many terrible coincidences that day. You had such bad luck that day, Adnan.'"

In the end, Koenig says that she has to acquit Adnan, and that—considering they kind of debunked the certainty of the "Nisha Call"—there just wasn't enough evidence to send a 17-year-old kid to prison for life. You can't argue with her. Koenig also says that in her gut she feels that Adnan didn't do it, but as far as this assertion goes, the fact that she developed a relationship with Adnan over countless hours of phone calls is not insignificant. It's clear that she likes Adnan on a personal level. She doesn't want him to be guilty. She's done an admirable job of suspending these feelings in service of the investigation, but it's only natural to let such bias influence how you feel about something. For casual listeners, though, the most logical answer is probably that Adnan did do it, and if anyone had been leaning toward this conclusion heading into the finale, this morning's episode only bolstered that opinion.

But while what was brought to light in the finale may point in a certain direction, it's still nothing but speculation, and though speculation seems to be something that Koenig abhors, few shows have ever invited so much of it. Serial investigated an actual criminal case, and unlike in Sherlock Holmes stories or CSI, clues didn't conveniently lead to more telling clues which then conveniently led to an answer. This was a nonfictional mystery, and without any kind of linear narrative, all we're left to do is wonder. But this is why Serial has been so successful. We love to speculate. We love rumors. We love to ask, "What if?" Serial allowed for all of that, while providing some new facts, and left the door ajar at the end. It's not something to be frustrated about. It's just real life.

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