He also compared the fetuses of NSW to the subjugated Uighur people, saying he was entitled to campaign for their rights. “It’s like saying, ‘The Uighur people are being incarcerated and murdered and you should shut up about that, Barnaby, because that is in China, and Barnaby, you are not a Uighur’,” he said. “A leader, and I was formerly a leader, has actually got to lead.” The path to reform is rarely straight, but last week the debate over the de-criminalisation of abortion took a Joyce-shaped detour, when the federal MP and former deputy prime minister staged an intervention to stop the legislation passing the upper house. It caused a backlash from both his critics and his fellow NSW Nationals, who reportedly privately discussed ejecting Joyce from the state party over his vocal stance on legislation they believe should be left to them.

He fired back by threatening to leave the party if four of his Nationals colleagues called on him publicly to leave. This in turn sparked a kerfuffle at the federal level, where a Joyce defection would affect the Morrison’s government’s slim majority. Senior government figures Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and Nationals leader Michael McCormack played down Joyce’s threat and defended his right to speak out on abortion. But Joyce’s voice in the debate created noise and publicity at a critical point – Premier Gladys Berejiklian caved to pressure and delayed by several weeks the vote in the upper house. So will Joyce – a divisive figure with a difficult past – help or hinder the anti-abortionists’ cause?

“I have to say Barnaby is a pretty good operator. I think he’s aware of what he’s doing,” said Sinead Canning, Campaign Manager for the NSW Pro-Choice Alliance. Loading Joyce, whose scandal-plagued personal life has led many to charge he is not in a position to lecture others on moral matters, voiced robo-calls which went out on Monday night, asserting the bill “legalises abortions for any reason right up until the day of birth”. Doctors and activists said this claim was a gross distortion of the facts. “At best is an absolute misunderstanding of what happens,” Canning said. “At worst it’s a complete lie.”

Joyce also spoke passionately at an anti-abortion rally outside state Parliament House on Tuesday evening, telling the thousands gathered that “this is not a reflection of a civilised society” and that he was “not here to espouse religion ... I’m here because I’m trying to argue to those people on logic”. He also wrote an opinion piece, published in The Sydney Morning Herald, which asserted the bill “imposes the death penalty on the innocent”. The Joyce intervention in the abortion debate was not welcomed by his NSW Nationals colleagues and the robo-calls elicited a social media backlash. NSW Nationals leader and Deputy Premier John Barilaro lambasted Joyce for his robo-calls, calling them a “complete intrusion into people’s privacy at home”. “Barnaby is entitled to say what he needs to say,” Barilaro said. “What’s not acceptable is to ring the homes of individual residents in National Party seats through his robo-calls, on a very sensitive issue, a very personal issue for so many, and leave what I believe is a blunt message.”

But Australian Christian Lobby Chief Political Officer Dan Flynn said Joyce was "a very prominent member of the community with a pro-life narrative" and it was “perfectly appropriate for him to make a contribution”. "I congratulate Barnaby for his foray into this issue," Flynn said. "I think it's great to hear from him, a welcome voice in the debate. He has a strong view, this is not the first time he's been pro life, he's been consistently pro-life." Joyce rejected suggestions that as a federal MP, he has no business interfering in a state issue. “I live in NSW last time I checked.” As for his personal life – he famously impregnated his younger staffer while still married to his wife, with whom he fathered four daughters – Joyce says: “Hands up those who are not compromised in some way, shape or form.” One of Joyce’s daughters, Odette, posted to Instagram a news report of Joyce’s address to the anti-abortion rally with the words “And once again I do not support you” written over it.

Joyce’s NSW Nationals colleagues also disagree with him – both on his position on abortion and his intrusion into the debate. Of the 13 Nationals in the NSW lower house, 11 voted for the decriminalisation bill. He’s delusional if he thinks campaigning aggressively on a social issue as divisive as abortion will see him return as leader. All of the Nationals MPs in the upper house supported it last week after the second reading speech. Within the Liberal party 19 out of 35 lower house MPs voted against the bill, and the Premier is facing destabilising chatter about her leadership over her handling of the issue.

The bill has already passed the lower house by 59 votes to 31, and supporters believe it has the numbers to pass the upper house. Last week the vote following the second reading speech in the upper house passed 26 to 15. The final vote has been delayed to the sitting week beginning September 17. Nationals MLC Trevor Khan seemed to target Joyce when speaking in support of the bill on Tuesday, as he lashed those who say they need more time to air the issues. “More time for what?” he asked. “Time for the sort of ill-discipline I have seen displayed by some over recent weeks? Time for the fratricide engaged in by some? Time for the sort of campaign of fear that was run during the same-sex marriage survey and the lead-up to the debate on the safe access zone bill? Time for misleading robo-calls?" One federal Nationals MP said Joyce is suffering “limelight deprivation”.

“He’s delusional if he thinks campaigning aggressively on a social issue as divisive as abortion will see him return as leader of the Nationals.” The federal MP said Joyce’s position on abortion decriminalisation is at odds with the beliefs of many Nationals voters. “Fifteen out of 16 Nats in the [federal] lower house voted ‘Yes’ to same-sex marriage. If he thinks regional Australians are ultra-conservative like him, he is completely misreading the character of Nationals voters. “This issue galvanises the ultra-right membership, but our party membership is not representative of who votes for us.” Canning described it as an “absurd situation”.

Loading “You have the doctors, the lawyers, the women’s health organisations and the domestic violence experts, all endorsing the bill, but it seems the government is being swayed by a few hysterical voices that have no interest or expertise in caring for women, and are clearly not interested in the facts.” However, she does not consider Joyce’s intervention as a threat to the bill, because it is unlikely to sway any votes in the upper house. Joyce might have the voice, but he doesn’t have the numbers. with Tom Rabe