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A new Probe Research poll (PDF) commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg show the former NDP MP with 41 percent of the vote among those already decided.

Wasylycia-Leis was also leading in August when a ChrisD.ca poll conducted by Forum Research had her at 21 percent.

Privacy lawyer Brian Bowman is in second place, sitting at 23 percent and surpassing former city councillor Gord Steeves at 16 percent.

University professor Robert-Falcon Ouellette has nine percent, lawyer David Sanders has five percent, with city councillor Paula Havixbeck (four percent) and exotic dancer booking agent Michel Fillion (two percent) trailing to round out the bunch.

Probe president Scott McKay said Wasylycia-Leis is “strong city-wide and across all neighbourhoods,” including in all demographics: varying age groups, education level, and income levels, expect for those who earn more than $100,000. The latter still has her statistically even with Bowman.

Probe conducted the random and representative telephone survey of 602 adults between September 18 and October 1. The margin of error is plus or minus four per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The civic election is October 22.