The SNP has threatened to hold another independence referendum if Scotland is dragged out of the EU by England. The consequences of ignoring Scotland’s voice in this debate have never been direr.

Whilst a storm brews across England regarding the EU referendum, north of the border the state of affairs has already been decided. Latest polls show two-thirds of Scots are set to back remaining in the EU, with the both the SNP and Scottish Labour both stressing its importance to the economy.

However, despite Wales and Northern Ireland being similarly pro-Brussels, there is a strong chance that England, led by a faction of the Conservative Party, will break away from the EU and drag the other three nations with it. The “Leave” campaign, led by Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, alongside other key cabinet ministers like Chris Grayling, Michael Gove, Theresa Villiers and ex-Work and Pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith, look like they could be gaining traction with the public. Earlier this month, the polls had the vote split at 50-50, having been 55-45 in favour of the EU in just last December.

This is a real concern for Scottish businesses, many of whom rely greatly on the free trade agreement with the rest of Europe to get by. Giving up sovereignty to a foreign capital is something Scotland has become accustomed to over the past centuries and the clear public consensus is that the legal limitations are well worth the economic benefits brought to the table. Outside of the UK, nine of Scotland’s top twelve export destinations are countries within the EU, with the Netherlands and France each contributing £1.9bn a year to Scottish businesses.

There is also the key issue of jobs. Big business leaders in the UK, including those from BT and Vodafone, have all signed a letter supporting the “Remain” campaign, saying they feared it would deter investment. This could have serious implications for employment in Scotland, which relies on the FDI to bring in new employment opportunities for its people. After London it, as a region, attracts the most FDI of any region of the UK. This would certainly be distressing for many in the country who work for companies based overseas.

The SNP have come down firmly on the pro-EU side of the debate, as have all of the major parties in Scotland. However, with such sterling support for remaining in the EU, Nicola Sturgeon will see this vote as a huge opportunity to throw forward her agenda for a new independence campaign. Alex Salmond came incredibly close to pulling it off last time, only to fail in the final few days. A key message from Labour in 2014 was that the country would only have to put up with a Tory government for a few more months before Ed Miliband took over; now with the election gone and dismay for Conservative policies at an all-time high, this is already an opportune moment for the SNP to repeat their bid.

If Scotland were to be taken out of the EU against her will, the people would be furious. It is extremely likely that this anger, coupled with the prospect of four more George Osborne budgets, would see enough people switch to make the SNP’s dream a reality. After all, this is exactly the kind of scenario that the public were warned about: England’s government pushing through a hugely unpopular policy and Holyrood being powerless to stop it. It would be a killer blow to those who oppose a split, and just the event the nationalists are waiting for to kick-start the referendum debate for the second time this decade.

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The EU Referendum: Ajockalypse Now was last modified: by