A look at Kitsap's growth over the decade

In 2019, Kitsap’s growing population hit more than 270,000 people for the first time — another milestone in what’s been a decade of steady growth for the West Sound.

Kitsap County added about 19,000 residents over the past 10 years, marking a 7.6% increase for the decade. That growth reflects trends seen across the rapidly expanding Puget Sound region.

“The whole Puget Sound region has been growing so (Kitsap County’s) very similar in that respect,” said Mike Mohrman, a state demographer for the Washington State Office of Financial Management.

But even as Kitsap saw a fairly hefty population bump, the county’s growth lags behind its counterparts on the other side of Puget Sound. King, Snohomish and Pierce counties all had growth rates in the double digits in the past 10 years.

Mohrman says Kitsap — which is not along the I-5 corridor — is “a little more isolated from the urban core, so it doesn’t always grow as quickly or as strongly or immediately as the other counties.”

Much of Kitsap’s growth, as Morhman noted, is tied to the county’s top industry. The Navy brings thousands of sailors and their families to Kitsap, while the shipyard provides well-paying jobs for 14,000 people — both of which set the stage for stable, long-term growth.

Then, there are factors on the other side of Puget Sound, where Seattle remains one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States, but rising housing costs have some looking for a cheaper place, like Bremerton, to live.

In the past 10 years, Kitsap became one of the top places for people exiting King County. The county now ranks as the fourth highest destination for former King residents.

The latest U.S. Census Bureau data shows 2,800 residents moved from King to Kitsap in a five-year period between 2013 and 2017. Kitsap also lost more than 1,900 residents to King County in that time, meaning the county’s gained less than 900 residents.

Kitsap is still a long ways away from Snohomish and Pierce counties, which welcomed 18,000 and 17,000 former King residents, respectively.

Population growth, but at a slower rate

Despite the much-heralded fast ferry system to Seattle — and public perceptions that it would draw an mass influx of Seattle ex-pats — the West Sound has yet to experience a dramatic population spike in the years following its 2017 launch.

The county only saw about a 1.1% annual growth rate the past two years, adding less than 3,000 residents each year.

Washington state as a whole has grown faster than Kitsap. The Evergreen State — now at 7.5 million people — has grown 12.2% in the past 10 years, according to state population estimates.

This decade was actually Kitsap’s slowest growth in the past six decades. In the 1970s, the county added around 36,000 people, an increase of 35.5%.

And although Kitsap has also become more diverse in the past 10 years, it's only slightly so. White, non-Hispanic residents still make up more than three-fourths of Kitsap's population.

Across Washington, people of color and Hispanic residents now account for about 31.5 % of the state's population, compared with 23.8% in Kitsap.

The decade’s fast growth occurred in Kitsap’s smallest cities, Port Orchard and Poulsbo — where populations increased 29% and 21.5%, respectively. Bremerton, Kitsap's largest city now at 42,000 residents, grew 11.5% in the past 10 years.

Though nearly two-thirds of residents live in unincorporated Kitsap, those areas saw the slowest growth rate at just 4.7%.

That’s a trend seen across the region, said Josh Brown, executive director of the Puget Sound Regional Council, a planning body that includes leaders from King, Pierce, Snohomish and Kitsap counties.

“The majority of the growth happening in all four counties, including Kitsap County, is happening in the urban growth area, it's not happening out of it,” he said.

Brown, a former Kitsap County commissioner, pointed out examples like new apartments popping near the Bainbridge ferry terminal, housing development close to downtown Poulsbo and the revitalization of downtown Bremerton.

Looking ahead

What could the next 10 years have in store for the Kitsap? Will the West Sound's growth continue? And how fast?

Population forecasters expect Kitsap’s population will continue to boom in the decade ahead and at a faster rate than the 2010s.

Washington State Office of Financial Management growth management projections show Kitsap adding more than 27,000 people by 2030, which, according to its medium series estimations, would mark about 10% growth over 10 years.

The Puget Sound Regional Council is more bullish, predicting Kitsap will add more than 42,000 people by 2030, which would mean the county's population would surpass 310,000 next decade.

These are predictions and the only way to see if they pan out is to wait. However, PSRC’s models have consistently projected Puget Sound’s overall population within 3 percentage points heading into 2020.

Either way, there’s little expectation Kitsap’s growing population will come to a stop in the years to come.

“The state pattern and the county pattern has been a pattern of growth overall for a long time,” said state demographer Mohrman. “And we don’t expect that pattern to change.”