Over the years, trends, tells and tendencies have developed in the draft process of the Dallas Cowboys.While not every tell occurs in every draft, a pattern does emerge that allows fans of the team to have some inkling of an idea how draft weekend will unfold. Sometimes, these trends aren’t obvious initially, but when looking back on how things played out, give a glimpse inside the inner workings of the Cowboys war room.

Here’s a look at 10 insights which should help explain whatever Dallas does throughout draft weekend. We’ll also attempt to use these to figure out who the Cowboys will walk away with from the weekend.

For those with short attention spans and a disdain for all the supporting evidence, jump to Page 5 for how we think these 10 Commandments will impact the options for No. 19.

Commandment No. 1: Thou shall use thy official visits wisely

Dallas doesn’t waste any of their pre-draft visits on fooling the competition. Since 2006, every first-round pick except for one player has been brought in for one of the 30 pre-draft visits. Every one. That also means that none of the Dallas Day invites has been the selection either. Sorry, Courtland Sutton and Connor Williams – though the Jones made it a point to note the local visitors in the pre-draft presser. More on that later.

In 2015, six of the Cowboys selections were all from the list. In 2016, they flooded the list with quarterbacks and running backs and got the No. 1 and No. 2 offensive rookies from that. In 2017, they went Ham on defensive linemen and secondary players, then picked seven players from that group.

Here’s a look at the 2018 visitor list.

These are the first-round candidates:

Calvin Ridley

DJ Moore

Courtland Sutton *

Kolton Miller

James Daniels

Mike McGlinchey

Vita Vea

Taven Bryan

Harold Landry

Da’Ron Payne

Harold Landry

Leighton Vander Esch

Rashaan Evans

Every position group but quarteback, running back, tight end and safety are represented. There’s only one defensive end. Unless a Top 10 pick miraculously falls in their range (Derwin James, Landry) they aren’t being picked at No. 19.

It should be noted that Will Hernandez is very close with the organization and the team would have all necessary information from informal visits with Hernandez over the last several years.

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Commandment No. 2: Thou shall follow the money

One of our oldest commandments. Dallas uses the draft to capitalize on paying wholesale prices for talent. This often means drafting players a year ahead of a need in order to keep costs down. In 2013 they tried to get ahead of cutting Miles Austin by drafting Terrance Williams, Jason Witten with Gavin Escobar and Brandon Carr with BW Webb. In 2014, the selected DeMarcus Lawrence to replace DeMarcus Ware. In 2015 they signed troubled Greg Hardy and then drafted Randy Gregory. In 2016 they looked to prep for moving on from Tony Romo by drafting Dak Prescott.

In 2017, they looked to get Tyrone Crawford’s replacement in Taco Charlton. Earlier in the year they wiped out their secondary and then went for to the well four times for youngsters.

In 2018, the biggest need will be retroactive. Yes, they should’ve had a replacement for Dez Bryant in the pipeline. Also though, one would have to consider the fact that Lawrence, David Irving and Zack Martin are all currently on one-year deals. Sean Lee’s availability makes him a player they could look to move on from. Dallas will have the space to bring all back, but it shouldn’t surprise if DE, LB, 3T and OG are all addressed in this first four rounds this weekend.

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Commandment No. 3: Thou shall not covet trading 1st rounders

Between 2007 and 2013, the Cowboys traded, either up or down, six out of the seven first rounds. They moved back in 2007 and 2013, moved up for a better pick in 2008, 2010 and 2012 and traded the pick away in 2009. 2011 was the only year in that span they stayed put, and selected franchise left tackle Tyron Smith.

However things have changed recently. In the last four drafts, Dallas has stayed put where their slot was. In 2014 they stuck at No. 16 and rolled with guard Zack Martin. 2015 saw them remain at No. 27 for Byron Jones and they refused to move off No. 4 in 2016 to snag Ezekiel Elliott. In 2017 they stayed at No. 28 for Taco Charlton

Have things changed? Well, the director of player personnel has. The ascent of Will McClay to the highest level of player acquisition seems to have led to a more controlled draft environment and Trader Jerry is no longer on the job. The club noted in the pre-draft presser they believe on of their 17 first-round grades should be there for them at No. 19.

Commandment No. 4: Thou shall use first pick on draft’s best player at his particular position

This has always been one of the more fascinating trends and has held up remarkably well. It’s also going to be very difficult to pull off in 2018. No matter where Dallas picks in the first round, they want to select a prospect who was ranked No. 1 at his position on their draft boards.

In 2016 they selected Elliott who was not only their top RB, but their top overall player. In 2015, Byron Jones was picked at No. 27 and was seen as the most versatile DB in the draft. In 2014, Zack Martin was the top guard. In 2013, Travis Frederick was the top center. In 2012, Morris Claiborne was the best corner (and they traded up to acquire him). 2011, Tyron Smith was the best offensive lineman and tackle. 2010, they traded up to get the best WR Dez Bryant (though not the first off the board due to character concerns).

Picking No. 28 last year, this was impossible to hold up. At No. 19 this will be difficult, but arguments could be made for DT Vea, DE Landry (as a pass rusher, not overall DE) and WR Moore to fall into this category.

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Commandment No. 5: Thou shall prioritize certain positions over others

Just before 2015’s draft, we looked at the draft history of the Cowboys over the previous five years. It concluded that Dallas has a preference to draft the following positions, in order, t1) Defensive Line t1) Linebackers, t1) Cornerbacks, t4) Offensive Line, t4) Wide Receiver.

What were 2015’s first four picks? Hybrid DB, DE, OL, LB. In 2016, the Cowboys sure enough picked two defensive linemen, a linebacker and a cornerback, taking off a year from the OL and WR, partially because they had to grab a RB and QB. They honed in on DL and CB in 2017. They appear ready to focus on linebacker, wide receiver and offensive line in 2018.

Commandment No. 6: Thou shall prioritize athleticism in your prospects

SPARQ is a metric that rolls up a prospects combine measurables into one neat score. A few years ago, Dallas got hip to the elite athlete trend and focused on drafting players who were exceptional atheletes. Sometimes, they seemed to value this above collegiate production. The theory is that production in college is nice, but a player has to have the athleticism in order to move that production to the NFL level where the competition is bigger, faster and stronger.

In 2015, Dallas swore by this. Headlined by DB Byron Jones (who broke a world record in the broad jump at the combine) and his 3 Sigma score, the Cowboys class was full of these athletes. Jones, Randy Gregory, Mark Nzeocha and Laurence Gibson all ranked in the Top 10 percentile of NFL players at their position. Not in the draft class, across the entire league.

Of course, time has shown that isn’t the only thing that goes into a successful NFL player, but it’s part of the equation. Having elite measurables is the best way to predict a player being able to do what he did on film in college against pro competition.

Here’s a look at how every single draft prospect compares athletically to who Dallas has drafted at their positions before.

Commandment No. 7: Thou shall take huge risks in Round 2

We’re so happy to have to move this down the list we don’t know what to do with ourselves.

Jerry Jones’ spirit as businessman and owner is channeled through the team’s second-round risk pick. While the club has hit it out the yard in the first round recently, they have repeatedly focused on trying to get inside-the-park homers in Round 2. Dallas loves to snag players who had the talent to be in the first round, but had some sort of red flag that send them tumbling. If not that, they look to make a big splash with their second rounder. When all else fails, reach for a tight end.

2016: Jaylon Smith – ACL injury/nerve damage

2015: Randy Gregory – failed combine drug test, admitted self-medic

2014: Demarcus Lawrence (trades 3rd round pick to move up in 2nd)

2013: Gavin Escobar

2012: Used second rounder to trade up for Morris Claiborne

2011: Bruce Carter – ACL injury

2010: Sean Lee – ACL injury

It’s funny to see Dallas media jump on this one to the point Jerry Jones admits to this in his draft conversations. When we revealed this as our 9th commandment in 2016 no one was discussing it.

Last year Jones hinted the club wouldn’t be looking to redshirt an injured player with their second rounder in 2017. It happened, and now all Cowboys Nation can do is pray they make this a trend in the opposite direction, like the obsession with trading in the first round. There’s nothing wrong with trading, or gambling, but it should be the exception, not the rule.

Commandment No. 8: Thou shall not covet small-schoolers

Since Will McClay’s ascension following the 2013 draft, the club has preferred to steer clear of most small-school prospects. The transition was clear in analyzing previous drafts. From 2009 through 2013, the Cowboys took seven players from non-FBS schools with no success. Starting with the 2014 class, that number dropped all the way to zero.

They stayed away in 2017 as well, with Louisiana Tech’s Xavier Woods being the closest thing. They are an FBS schoo, too, though.

McClay certainly assigns members of his scouting arsenal to research small-school prospects, despite Dallas not taking any in recent years. The issue is that when it gets down to comparing them to players from Division I-FBS, McClay will lean towards the players who have performed on the bigger stages.

He confirmed as much soon after the 2014 draft, via ESPN.

“The difference is if you’re from a small school and you’re coming into this situation you might not be ready for the bright lights,” said Will McClay, the Cowboys’ assistant director of player personnel, who put the draft board together. “The guys who have been through playing those games where there are 90,000 people in the stands, they’ve had those situations there, they’ll [be] a little bit [more] used to it. If they got the same physical traits, I’m going to go with the guy whose been there before, [over] the guy who you got to wait to come up.”

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Commandment No. 9: Pre-draft presser is a gold mine of info

99 percent of the time, Jerry is selling something when he’s talking to the media… majority of the time its hope to a fan base who remains loyal despite the team struggling for two decades. However, leading up to and including the pre-draft presser, the team turns brutally honest if you know how to interpret Jerry speak.

In 2015 told everyone they weren’t hard-pressed to draft a running back. The world scoffed . . . . until they left the draft without a running back and still finished Top 10 in the league in rushing. In 2016, they told the world Ezekiel Elliott was worth a Top 10 pick and they weren’t interested in trading back.

In 2017 the best draft nugget may have been the sentiment the OL is vitally important to the fabric of the team. They didn’t draft one, and paid for it. Will history repeat?

Here’s a look at all of the tidbits we gathered from Tuesday’s press conference. The highlights? WR is very deep. Linebacker may require a double-dip. Flex of La’El Collins, Cam Fleming means they can draft OT or OG to improve Top 5 linemen. They’re equipped to pull off a trade for a vet while on the clock.

Commandment No. 10: Dallas waits until Year 2 of a new DC to flood draft with defensive picks.

This one admittedly has less evidence, but I feel will hold true again. When Dallas hired Rob Ryan to take over the defense in 2011, they let him feel out the roster he was given, only going defense once in the first four rounds and only twice in the draft. Then, in 2012, they threw several picks at the defense. When Kiffin took over in 2013, they didn’t go defense until the fourth round, despite the switch to a 4-3 base defense. The move to Marinelli saw a heavy defensive tilt with the later picks in the draft, following the trend. He was taking over a similar system to Kiffin.

Enter Kris Richard.

Is it really his defense now? If so, then the Cowboys may get him a couple toys, but predictions of a defensive-focused draft may not be the move. There is certainly a need for linebackers and a strong case can be made for a nose tackle. But for the rest, letting him get his hands on the talent in house seems like a wise move.

Continue for the TL;DR summary…

Reading the Tea Leaves the Commandments were written on

Here, we’ll try to apply the six commandments which deal with the first round to round out the field of possible first-round picks. This isn’t the end-all be-all list. It just says if another player is selected, Dallas will have departed from their norm of the last few years which has resulted in mostly productive drafts.

Commandment No. 1

OK so there are 16 players who were 30 visitors who are projected to be first-round picks, plus the wild card of Derwin James who the club seemed to purposely show zero interest in, a la Mo Claiborne.

Calvin Ridley

DJ Moore

Courtland Sutton *

Kolton Miller

James Daniels

Mike McGlinchey

Vita Vea

Taven Bryan

Harold Landry

Da’Ron Payne

Harold Landry

Leighton Vander Esch

Rashaan Evans

Commandment No. 2

Following the money, wide receiver, defensive end, defensive tackle, linebacker and offensive guard are all positions they could try to minimize costs.

Oh look, that’s the entire list, we might be on to something.

Commandment No. 3

They are no longer hell bent on trading around in the first anymore, lowering the chances James is in their mix.

Commandment No. 4

Best player in entire draft at his position. Hmmm

WR Moore / Ridley arguable

OT McGlinchey

OG/C Combo James Daniels

1T Vita Vea

Pass Rusher Harold Landry

3T Taven Bryan (questionable)

Commandment No. 5

Positional preferences. All pass the test

Commandment No. 6

Elite athletes only, (Taco Charlton was an elite 3T last year, but not DE).

WR Moore

OG/C Combo James Daniels

1T Vita Vea

Pass Rusher Harold Landry

3T Taven Bryan

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