For Your Consideration: Final Oscar Winner Predictions, Part I

There’s less than three weeks until Oscar; unfortunately, the home stretch doesn’t seem to offer much suspense. True, there are a few genuine nail-biters in categories like best documentary feature, best foreign-language film and maybe even best supporting actress, but overall this is looking like one of the most predictable Academy Awards in recent memory.

But predict we will, with genuine hopes that our generally safe suggestions prove at least occasionally wrong and some surprises prevail on Oscar night. Over the next three of these weekly awards columns, each of Oscar’s 24 categories will be given the prognostication treatment. The first batch is below, taking on the majority of the artistic and technical categories.

In general, this looks very much to be the “King’s Speech” and “Inception” show, with the former a good bet for art direction and costume design and the latter for visual effects, sound editing and sound mixing (though “Inception” is also a definite possibility to take art direction from “Speech”).

Things get a little more interesting when it comes to film editing and cinematography. If Tariq Anwar’s work on “The King’s Speech” does win for film editing, it’s an early indication that a “King’s” sweep is inevitable (film editing winners more often than not also win best picture). However, if anything else wins — especially Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter’s work for “The Social Network” – it could suggest some surprises later in the night (or it could just be a lone bone that voters throw at “Network”).

As for cinematography, the drama actually comes with the expected winner. After nine nominations (including “The Shawshank Redemption,” “Fargo,” “No Country For Old Men” and “The Reader”), Roger Deakins could very well finally take home an Oscar for his work on “True Grit.” His biggest competition is Wally Pfister, whose work on “Inception” brought him his fourth Oscar nomination in six years (all of which have been for Christopher Nolan films, and none of which have resulted in a win). But the opportunity to reward Deakins – and “True Grit,” which the Academy clearly enjoyed given its 10 nominations – seems too strong to ignore.

Then there’s best makeup, which offers three films that can’t be found anywhere else in Oscar’s 24 categories: “Barney’s Version,” “The Way Back” and “The Wolfman.” It could offer a consolation prize to “Version” or “Back,” both of which had bigger Oscar hopes, but more likely is Rick Baker taking home Oscar #7 for “The Wolfman,” some 30 years after he won his first for, oddly enough, “An American Werewolf in London.”

Full list of predictions below. Next week, this column will take on the music, short film and foreign-language, documentary and animated feature categories (though check out Eric Kohn’s take on the short films here).

Best Art Direction :

The nominees: Alice in Wonderland; Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I; Inception; The King’s Speech; True Grit

What will win: The King’s Speech

What might win: Inception

What should win: Inception

What shoulda been a contender: Black Swan

Best Cinematography

The nominees: Black Swan; Inception; The King’s Speech; The Social Network; True Grit

What will win: True Grit

What might win: Inception

What should win: True Grit

What shoulda been a contender: I Am Love

Best Costume Design

The nominees: Alice In Wonderland; I Am Love; The King’s Speech; The Tempest; True Grit

What will win: The King’s Speech

What might win: Alice in Wonderland

What should win: I Am Love

What shoulda been a contender: Burlesque

Best Film Editing

The nominees: Black Swan; The Fighter; The King’s Speech; 127 Hours; The Social Network

What will win: The Social Network

What might win: The King’s Speech

What should win: The Social Network

What shoulda been a contender: Inception

Best Makeup

The nominees: Barney’s Version; The Way Back; The Wolfman

What will win: The Wolfman

What might win: Barney’s Version

What should win: The Wolfman

What shoulda been a contender: Splice

Best Sound Editing

The nominees: Inception; Toy Story 3; TRON Legacy; True Grit; Unstoppable

What will win: Inception

What might win: True Grit

What should win: Inception

What shoulda been a contender: Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World

Best Sound Mixing

The nominees: Inception; The King’s Speech; Salt; The Social Network; True Grit

What will win: Inception

What might win: True Grit

What should win: Inception

What shoulda been a contender: Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World

Best Visual Effects

The nominees: Alice in Wonderland; Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part i; Hereafter; Inception; Iron Man 2

What will win: Inception

What might win: Alice in Wonderland

What should win: Inception

What shoulda been a contender: TRON: Legacy

Peter Knegt is indieWIRE’s Associate Editor. Follow him on Twitter and on his blog.

Previous editions of this column:

For Your Consideration: Sundance and Next Year’s Oscars

For Your Consideration: Final 2011 Oscar Predictions

For Your Consideration: Predicting The Golden Globes

For Your Consideration: If I Had An Oscar Ballot…

For Your Consideration: 60 Women That Defined “The Year of the Actress”

For Your Consideration: A Mid-December Stab at Oscar Predictions

For Your Consideration: A Guide To The Oscar Precursors

For Your Consideration: The 10 Biggest Surprises of the Spirit Award Nominations

For Your Consideration: The 10 Worst Original Song Oscar Snubs of the Past 10 Years

For Your Consideration: A Mid-November Stab at Oscar Predictions

For Your Consideration: Gauging a Crowded and Female-Friendly Spirit Award Field

For Your Consideration: Could a Documentary Be Nominated For Best Picture?

For Your Consideration: Assessing Those Gotham Award Nominations

For Your Consideration: 10 Underdog Actors

For Your Consideration: 10 Underdog Actresses

For Your Consideration: Save For “Love” Snub, Foreign Language Submissions Uncontroversial

For Your Consideration: Post-Toronto Oscar Predictions

For Your Consideration: Updating Oscar Contenders In The Eye of The Storm

For Your Consideration: 10 Things The Fall Fests Should Say About Awards Season

For Your Consideration: Assessing Oscar In The Calm Before The Storm

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