Canada is only days away from the opening of the first Parliament in some eight years where no party holds a majority of seats. Typically, minority parliaments don’t last terribly long, as co-operation among the major parties is often at odds with their own individual political goals, which all too often involves criticizing and undermining one another — and, given the prospect of a snap election, positioning themselves and their leaders so as to be able to hit the ground running if and when they head back out on the hustings.

For any government to hold on to power it must maintain the confidence of the House. In practice, this means the government must be able to win votes in the House on questions of confidence, such as budget and spending bills and other crucial pieces of legislation. Of course, the government can be brought down by the successful passage of a motion deeming that the House has no confidence in the governing regime.

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So, when exactly will the Trudeau Liberals face their confidence test?

Probably early next week.

The House is set to open for the 43rd Parliament on Thursday. After the election of a speaker, the Governor General will read the Speech from the Throne, which is prepared by the government of the day and outlines its priorities and plans for the session.

Once the speech is read, the government will table a supply motion in the House, which allows the government to spend public dollars.

This must take place on or before Dec. 10, which would likely make it the first confidence vote of the newly launched parliament.

MPs can also expect to spend at least two days debating the pros and cons of the Throne Speech itself, courtesy of a motion to consider the address. A government source says debate on a motion on the speech will likely start on Monday (Dec. 9).

The Official Opposition, the Conservatives, can table an amendment to that motion, which considering their rhetoric as of late, and, well, opposition to the Trudeau Liberals, they likely will do.

As the third-biggest party in the House, the Bloc Québécois will then have an opportunity to introduce a subamendment, which must be put to a vote on the second day of debate, which could be Monday or Tuesday, depending on how the government intends to manage the limited time available before the House shuts down for the holidays.

Although it isn’t mandatory, the House might also vote on the main amendment — the one put forward by the Official Opposition — which, under House rules, must be held on or before the fourth designated day.

Those votes are only considered a demonstration of non-confidence if the main motion is amended without the support of the government.

It’s also worth noting that there are a lot of restrictions on subamendments, which, as the name would suggest, can only propose changes to the amendment, and not the main motion, although historically, second-ranking opposition parties have gotten around that by simply drafting their subamendment as an add-on to the main amendment.

The Liberals could even bring forward their own subamendment, which could be drafted to recognize the priorities of a smaller party like the NDP (or even the Greens) in order to secure their support when it comes time to vote.

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