September 19, 2017 - Dem Tops 50 Percent, Up 10 Pts In Va Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Trump Has Big Disapproval Rating

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In the Virginia governor's race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam tops the magic 50 percent mark among likely voters, leading Republican Ed Gillespie 51 - 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra gets 3 percent.





Northam leads Gillespie 95 - 3 percent among Democrats, with 1 percent for Hyra, and 50 - 37 percent among independent voters, with 7 percent for Hyra. Gillespie takes Republicans 94 - 4 percent, with no measurable support for Hyra, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University Poll finds.





This survey of likely voters can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.





There are wide gender and racial gaps as men back the Republican 49 - 39 percent while women back the Democrat 61 - 34 percent. White voters back Gillespie 49 - 44 percent while non-white voters back Northam 74 - 16 percent.





Northam gets a 47 - 31 percent favorability rating among Virginia likely voters. Gillespie gets 40 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable.





For Hyra, 84 percent of likely voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion of him.





"Virginians were just getting used to the idea that the Old Dominion was no longer that tried-and-true, rock-solid Republican bastion that had been the case since the civil rights era of the 1960s and was now a swing state. But as these poll numbers demonstrate, politics in Virginia may be moving further leftward," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"If Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam can keep his lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the race for governor, it won't be long before the state is considered part of the reliably Democratic Blue Wall in the East."





"After all, the state has voted Democratic for president the last three times and reliably Democratic in most statewide elections over the past decade," Brown added.





"Moreover, Republican President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular while Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe is popular. Of course, a come from behind victory by Gillespie would throw a monkey wrench in the Blue Wall talk. At this point, the 3 percent showing by Libertarian Cliff Hyra is not enough to make much of a difference in the race unless Gillespie stages a rally."





For 27 percent of Virginia likely voters, the economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote for governor. Another 21 percent cite health care, as 12 percent list education, 11 percent say taxes and 10 percent say immigration. Approval for President Trump, Gov. McAuliffe, U.S. Senators





Virginia likely voters disapprove 58 - 39 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Democrats disapprove 97 - 3 percent and independent voters disapprove 64 - 32 percent, as Republicans approve 88 - 8 percent.





Voters approve 56 - 37 percent of the job Gov. Terry McAuliffe is doing, including 91 - 3 percent among Democrats and 60 - 32 percent among independent voters. Republicans disapprove 82 - 10 percent.





U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine gets a 55 - 40 percent approval rating among likely voters, with a 62 - 33 percent approval rating for U.S. Sen. Mark Warner.





From September 14 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 850 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.







1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat, Ed Gillespie the Republican, and Cliff Hyra the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Ralph Northam the Democrat, Ed Gillespie the Republican or Cliff Hyra the Libertarian?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Northam 51% 4% 95% 50% 39% 61% 52% 35% Gillespie 41 94 3 37 49 34 42 57 Hyra 3 - 1 7 6 1 2 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 2 1 7 6 4 4 3 WHITE..... Non- Men Wom Wht Wht Northam 32% 54% 44% 74% Gillespie 58 41 49 16 Hyra 6 1 3 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 4 3 4 7

2. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 47% 10% 80% 48% 37% 55% 52% 35% Unfavorable 31 63 5 29 39 23 32 41 Hvn't hrd enough 21 26 14 21 22 20 14 23 REFUSED 2 2 - 2 2 1 2 1 WHITE..... Non- Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 34% 53% 44% 56% Unfavorable 48 26 36 13 Hvn't hrd enough 17 19 18 30 REFUSED 2 1 2 1

3. Is your opinion of Ed Gillespie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 40% 82% 8% 38% 49% 32% 42% 55% Unfavorable 39 5 69 41 30 46 44 27 Hvn't hrd enough 19 11 22 20 18 20 12 17 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 WHITE..... Non- Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 58% 38% 48% 18% Unfavorable 26 46 36 48 Hvn't hrd enough 14 15 15 33 REFUSED 2 1 2 2

4. Is your opinion of Cliff Hyra favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 7% 5% 5% 8% 9% 5% 4% 6% Unfavorable 8 13 6 6 10 6 8 8 Hvn't hrd enough 84 81 88 85 81 88 87 86 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 WHITE..... Non- Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 7% 3% 5% 12% Unfavorable 9 6 8 7 Hvn't hrd enough 83 90 86 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 56% 10% 91% 60% 50% 61% 58% 41% Disapprove 37 82 3 32 43 30 36 50 DK/NA 8 8 7 7 7 9 6 9 WHITE..... Non- Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 43% 56% 50% 75% Disapprove 51 36 43 16 DK/NA 6 8 7 9

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 43% 41% 44% 46% 47% 40% 44% 38% Disapprove 43 44 43 41 43 44 43 51 DK/NA 13 15 13 13 10 16 13 12 WHITE..... Non- Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 46% 37% 41% 52% Disapprove 45 49 47 34 DK/NA 10 15 12 15

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 62% 25% 92% 63% 55% 68% 65% 47% Disapprove 33 68 5 31 42 25 31 48 DK/NA 5 7 3 6 4 7 4 5 WHITE..... Non- Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 47% 65% 57% 79% Disapprove 49 29 39 13 DK/NA 4 5 5 8

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as United States Senator?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 55% 6% 92% 61% 47% 63% 58% 41% Disapprove 40 88 5 35 49 33 38 54 DK/NA 5 6 3 5 5 5 4 5 WHITE..... Non- Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 41% 58% 50% 74% Disapprove 55 36 45 22 DK/NA 4 5 5 5

9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 39% 88% 3% 32% 45% 33% 35% 56% Disapprove 58 8 97 64 52 64 62 40 DK/NA 3 4 - 3 3 3 3 4 WHITE..... Non- Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 52% 38% 45% 18% Disapprove 44 59 52 81 DK/NA 4 3 3 1

10. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: taxes, the economy, education, health care, race relations, the environment, or immigration?