It's been a cruel summer for Scott Walker and Martin O'Malley.

That's the assessment of this week's POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top activists, operatives and strategists in Iowa and New Hampshire. Ahead of Labor Day weekend, insiders weighed in on who won — and who lost — the summer in their own parties and the results couldn't have been clearer.


On the Republican side, nearly half of GOP insiders said Walker, the Wisconsin governor, had the worst summer on their side of the aisle. In Iowa, where he was until recently considered the front-runner but now lags in polls, insiders were particularly down on him: 56 percent said he had lost the summer.

"He can't seem to find his way on any given issue with a handheld GPS," an Iowa Republican said of Walker. "He's been on all three sides of every two-sided issue. For the last two months hasn't made a single policy pronouncement that he or his staff hasn't had to clarify or clear up within two hours. When you're reduced to saying 'yeah' doesn't mean 'yes,' you're in trouble. 'Unintimidated' has given way to 'uninformed' and 'unprepared.'"

"Not since, well, Tim Pawlenty has a candidate so hyped or seemingly invincible had their bubble burst in this way," agreed another Iowa Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely. "He owes the Iowa GOP a big favor for canceling the Straw Poll to keep him from repeating Tim Pawlenty's untimely demise."

The GOP insiders' criticism of Walker was rooted in the sense that his positions on a number of policy issues, from immigration to abortion, have shifted repeatedly, and that he has recently attempted to pander to Donald Trump voters.

"[That] plunge [in the polls] has come as a result of his inability to articulate where he stands on a single issue," an Iowa Republican said. "Authenticity matters in Iowa. Big time. In fact, it's the only thing that matters. Scott Walker advocated building a wall between the U.S. and Canada. How do you NOT lose the summer with a statement like that?"

Among New Hampshire Republicans, Walker wasn't so clearly considered the biggest loser — about 40 percent called him that, compared to one-third who gave Jeb Bush that designation. Still, Walker left Granite Staters unimpressed.

"He's lost his lead in the make or break Iowa caucuses. He has alienated donors with his pandering to the base of the party. He is woefully unprepared in interviews. He has cemented his reputation as a shameless flip-flopper, and worst of all he has raised questions about if he is actually smart enough to run for president," said a New Hampshire Republican.

"Forgettable in the debate, mind-numbing acrobatic answers to issues of the day — he has become not ready for prime time," agreed another.

Those who pointed to Bush, who came in second place for having the worst summer according to New Hampshire Republicans, said he has been underwhelming despite enormous fundraising hauls.

"Bush hasn't even been able to generate a spark among voters — or even his own supporters. Unless that changes, he is headed for disaster," a New Hampshire Republican said.

Another added that Bush is no longer running "joyfully," as he once promised he would.

"The happy tortoise has become the angry badger, and it doesn't sit well," the Granite State Republican said.

On the Democratic side, more than 60 percent of insiders surveyed said former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley lost the summer, mostly because of his failure to gain traction as a Hillary Clinton alternative amid the unexpected rise of liberal Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.





"Martin who?" snarked an Iowa Democrat.

Added a New Hampshire Democrat, "His slow tentative launch gave Bernie all the room he needed. Now with Biden seemingly tip toeing into the race, O'Malley is a dead man walking."

Several said O'Malley has been doing all of the right things but that there's little appetite in the Democratic Party for a mainstream white male candidate when the front-runner has the chance to be the first female president and the leading insurgent is running on a deeply progressive message.

"Martin O'Malley has done absolutely everything a caucus candidate is supposed to do," an Iowa Democrat said. "Small to medium-sized events that everyone can get into? Check. Shake every hand in the room? Check. Answer a lot of questions, and answer them right? Yep. Good performance at cattle calls? Yes. In 2004 that would have him near the head of the pack. But he's still at 3 percent. This is an identity politics election. Move The Democrats Left is identity politics every bit as much as Woman President is. And there is no room in that mix for a mainstream Democrat who also happens to be a straight white male."

In both Iowa and New Hampshire, around a quarter of Democrats said Clinton had the worst summer.

Said a New Hampshire Democrat, "Hillary is stuck in neutral ... she can't move beyond the server/email conversation which has been interpreted as a "trust" issue and given her long history in politics (she IS the poster child for politician in a year that the word has taken on an even more toxic meaning than prior elections) it has thrown her in a quicksand of innuendo, distortion, lack of trust and disappointment."

"She gets hit on just about anything she does, the email issue will last through next year, and her poll numbers have slipped," an Iowa Democrat said. "But I believe she will be fine. Her numbers were too high to sustain. Iowa voters like to be courted and will not coalesce quickly around anyone. She has staying power and will be the Iowa caucus winner in February."

The summer winners

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders had the best summers in the presidential field, POLITICO Caucus insiders said.

Among Republicans, Trump was the overwhelming favorite — 82 percent of GOP insiders said he won the summer on the Republican side, though many said so grudgingly.

"It's painful to say Trump, but who else dominated the political and media bandwith the way he did?" said one New Hampshire Republican.

Agreed another, "Pains me to say it, but [I] can't deny it was the summer of Trump. I don't think it will be the winter of Trump, too, though. Kasich and Cruz still have room to rise, and Jeb will be one of the finalists for the nomination."

They pointed to the billionaire businessman's domination of political news coverage, and his ability to suck up oxygen from many of the other campaigns.

"Despite having had his political obituary written numerous times, Trump continues to soar in the polls," a New Hampshire Republican said. "He dominates and drives news cycles day in and day out, and has an unmatched megaphone of all the candidates on either side of the aisle. Say what you will about the guy, but he knows how to swat away heat seeking missiles that would derail any other candidate, and he also can pack his own punch and sideline his opponents."

On the Democratic side, overall, 54 percent said Sanders had the best summer. He and Clinton tied for the best in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, where Sanders has made inroads in the polls, 60 percent of New Hampshire Democrats said he won the summer, while only 40 percent named Clinton.

"Bernie's campaign has brilliantly tapped the anti-establishment crowd," an unaffiliated New Hampshire Democrat said. "Nothing short of genius."

A New Hampshire Democrat added that there is goodwill toward the progressive senator, even if he is not expected to ultimately be the nominee.

"Clearly the alternative to Hillary," the insider said. "Bernie has energized the left; never pragmatic but always vocal. Hillary will win in the end, but Bernie will have a big say in how the convention plays out ... and good for him!"

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

