Chances are that guy in the U-Haul truck is looking at Houston through the rearview mirror.

A perennial No. 1 on the moving giant's list of "destination cities," Houston last year saw the number of one-way inbound moves slip below 50 percent, suggesting a net outward migration of customers. The gap had been narrowing for a few years, but 2015 was the tipping point, said Matt Merrill, president of U-Haul Company of West Houston. The ratio of incoming movers using the company's services fell to 48.6 percent, as the number of one-way trips overall declined, U-Haul statistics show.

So far in 2016, U-Haul has helped 2.4 percent more people move out of Houston than into the city.

Still, U-Haul continues to expand its presence in Houston. The company already has more than 130 dealers here, Merrill said, and it announced three more last week. It's also doubling the size of its 90,000-square-foot U-Haul Moving & Storage of West Oaks, along Westheimer Road near Texas 6, to keep up with demand.

"In terms of moving activity, Houston remains one of the busiest markets in the country," Merrill said. "So, if busy translates to 'hot,' then Houston is still hot."

The moving business can be affected by all sorts of factors, Merrill said, from college students coming and going to the ebb and flow of local economies. When folks are doing well, they upgrade to larger homes; when times get tougher, they downsize or relocate for work. All of that increases the need for storage and moving materials like pickups, vans, trucks and trailer hitches.

Competitor Penske doesn't give details on its one-way moves in particular markets, but the company said the Houston area ranked seventh among the company's top destinations in 2015, up from eighth in 2014.

"Houston has appeared in every single edition of our popular top-moving destinations list that we debuted in 2010," Penske spokesman Alen Beljin said in a statement. "It has ranked as high as six and as low as eight. In four of the six years, the market has appeared in the sixth spot."

U-Haul ranked Houston as its top destination city in 2014 for the sixth straight year. U-Haul has yet to release its list for 2015, but Houston again is expected to be among the top U.S. metros.

The energy slump is likely contributing to the change in moving patterns. Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting with the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, said the slump began in November 2014 and "the job growth machine was turned off in January 2015."

The Houston area finished 2015 with a net gain of only 15,000 jobs, far below its boom-time peaks. Gilmer predicted that about as many people will arrive this year, likely drawn by reasons other than energy.

More Information MIGRATING TO HOUSTON Most popular cities for one-way U-Haul moves to Houston, 2015: 1. Austin 2. San Antonio 3. Dallas 4. Spring 5. College Station 6. Beaumont 7. Baton Rouge 8. Plano 9. Corpus Christi 10. Fort Worth Source: U-Haul International

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In his chats with customers, Bruce Long, who manages the Auto Fix Unlimited U-Haul dealership on Jones Road in Jersey Village, said people have mentioned housing and road construction jobs and petrochemical work.

He estimates eight out of 10 moving vehicles leaving his lot are going to other places in Texas. Mostly, the drop-offs at the Jersey Village dealer have arrived from states like New Jersey, New York, Virginia, Missouri and Oklahoma, he said.

Many of Long's customers are people who moved here and are bringing their family members in to join them.

He said he still notes a confidence among newcomers.

"This is Texas," Long said. "If you really truly want to work and really truly want to have a good life, you can do that."