Postseason Projection: NIT

Outlook: Before we embark on our Iowa State basketball preview, let’s all pour out whatever drink we have in front of us onto the pavement (or carpet) and wave a tearful goodbye to the Iowa State seniors, particularly Monte Morris, one of 3MW’s favorite players of all time. My colleague Matt Cox gave a wonderful tribute to the college senior back in March – please go read that now.

Welcome back! So yes, Steve Prohm and the Cyclones lose a very large portion of their production from last season with the departures of Morris, Deonte Burton, Naz Long, Matt Thomas, and Darrell Bowie. Not many programs would be able to stay competitive the following year after so much turnover, but the Clones restocked their kitchen with a couple high-ranked recruits and once again played the transfer market brilliantly. My other colleague (there’s three of us) Jim Root and I have a friendly wager this season on the Clones about whether they make the 2018 Tournament. I lean to the “no they don’t” camp, but that doesn’t mean ISU isn’t capable of getting there – a lot will depend on the maturation of de facto leader Donovan Jackson and the incoming youngsters and “experienced hires”.

When Prohm took over for Fred Hoiberg a few years ago, he dialed back the tempo of the Clones’ offense, focusing more on executing in the half-court setting versus all-out transition (though ISU did still get out and run a bit). Like Hoiberg’s squads, Prohm’s two teams have relied on “small ball” lineups featuring a dynamic undersized 4 (Burton last year) and athletic undersized 5. Morris’s ball protection ability was historically great over his career, which propelled the elite efficiency that ISU enjoyed (also everyone on the floor could shoot the shit out of the ball). Size-wise, this year’s team will fall into the same mold as last season, but fully replacing Morris is impossible.

4-star (some places 5-star) point guard Lindell Wigginton will get the assignment of replacing Morris in the Clones lineup. Wigginton is the 37th ranked recruit per ESPN, but following Morris is like following the overachieving second grader that had his creative Dad help him on his book report (apologies for this awful simile). There’s a lot to like about Wigginton; he’s an astronomically explosive scoring guard that can run the 1 or 2 and thrives in transition and in the pick-n-roll game. Wigginton averaged 12 points and 4 assists for Canada’s gold medal U-19 squad this offseason, showing he can compete with the top talent. We shouldn’t expect a completely smooth transition from Morris to Wigginton, as the freshman still needs to improve his shot selection and decision making, but he has the all the makings of a future college basketball star.

The three primary returners on the squad, Donovan Jackson, Solomon Young, and Nick Weiler-Babb will assume much larger responsibilities than what they were privy to a season ago. Jackson is the guy everyone in Ames is hoping can breakout and become the leader of the program. Like Wigginton, Jackson will be able to play either guard spot – he proved in the Nevada NCAA Tourney game that he’s capable of creating his own shot with step-backs and blow-byes (where he finishes nicely with his off hand), and is comfortable in an off-ball role where he can take advantage of his sweet stroke (45.4% on threes last year, 28th in the country). Jackson’s defense will actually be an upgrade over Morris, a small silver-lining if you’re an ISU fan looking for anything good coming out of Morris’s graduation.

Solomon Young came on strong at the end of the year, starting the team’s final 12 games and averaging 6 points, 5 boards, and 1 block in those contests. His best game came against K State where he put up 18 points, 12 boards, and 2 blocks in a key Clones win in Manhattan. Young’s game is a bit reminiscent of Jameel McKay, an active shot blocker with low post scoring chops and a strong knack for rebounding. He should grow considerably in his second year in Ames. Weiler-Babb will have to fend off the newcomers for playing time, but he should be a valuable piece for Prohm on the wing. The 6’5” junior contributes in several areas on the floor and can guard multiple positions on the defensive end.

The Clones haven’t had particularly deep teams in Prohm’s two seasons at the helm. That will change this year with the wealth of capable options ISU has at the 3 and 4 spots. Transfers Jeff Beverly (UTSA), Hans Brase (Princeton), and Zoran Talley (Old Dominion) will each fight for minutes along with the aforementioned Weiler-Babb, redshirt freshman Cameron Lard, and Top 100 prospect Terrence Lewis.

Beverly could land the starting four spot on day one (against Mizzou); he comes in after averaging over 15ppg for UTSA last season. On UTSA, Beverly shot the 9th highest percentage of his team’s shots in the country, meaning he gunned often. While he wasn’t shy about stepping behind the arc, Beverly shot a disastrous 21.3% from downtown; he was much better attacking the rim where he got to the free throw line at one of the highest rates in the nation. Beverly should improve efficiency-wise with the scoring load shared across his much more capable teammates (no offense to UTSA).

Like Beverly, Talley was a big-time gunner at Old Dominion, which featured an anemic offense. Talley came off the bench most of the time for the Monarchs as an “instant offense” type of player and trends more towards a true slashing/playmaking wing style versus Beverly’s 4-man tendencies. Hans Brase was one of the best players in the Ivy League back in 2014-15, but two ACL surgeries have slowed him down quite a bit. While he should be ready for opening day, Brase likely won’t regain his top-speed at ISU. He’ll still be a valuable piece off the pine, a big-time shooter than can slide into the 4 or 5 spot and compete on the glass.

Lewis is going to be a tough matchup on the wing and will compete for a starting spot with Weiler-Babb. The 6’6’’ freshman is a good shooter, but he shines on basket penetration and using his athleticism to play above the rim. Like Wigginton, Lewis has the potential to turn into a college basketball star.

Bottom Line: The Clones will once again be must-see television and should feature a dynamic offensive attack. Prohm has the capability to take this squad back to the Dance, but it will depend on the smooth meshing of new faces and the capacity of a guy like Wigginton or Jackson to become a consistent, go-to scorer.

9. Kansas State

Key Returners: Kamau Stokes, Barry Brown, Dean Wade, Xavier Sneed

Key Losses: Wesley Iwundu, D.J. Johnson

Key Newcomers: Mawdo Sallah, Amaad Wainwright, Nigel Shadd, Mike McGuirl

Lineup: