Rob Ford improves; Olivia Chow continues to falter

TORONTO AUGUST 26th, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1945 Toronto voters five days after Karen Stintz dropped out of the mayoral race, just more than a third will vote for John Tory in the municipal election on October 27 (34%), while just more than 3-in-10 will vote for Rob Ford (31%). This represents stability from two weeks ago for Tory (August 6 - 35%) and an improvement for Ford (from 27%). Olivia Chow now attracts the votes of less than a quarter (23%), a slight decline (from 25%). David Soknacki takes very few votes (4%), as do any other candidates (1%), while just one fifth are undecided (6%). Of note, voters who said they were going to vote for Karen Stintz have mostly moved to Ford or Tory (30% and 27% respectively), while just under a quarter moved to Chow (24%).

In a race where only the three leaders contended, John Tory would take well more than a third (36%) to 3-in-10 for Rob Ford (31%). Chow would improve to just more than a quarter of the vote (26%).





Tory's, Chow's approval down slightly, Ford's up

Virtually all voters know of John Tory (93%) and Olivia Chow (94%), and each has seen their approval decline slightly from two weeks ago (August 6, Tory - 67%, Chow - 52%, now, 63% and 49%, respectively). Two thirds are aware of David Soknacki (67%) and his approval is stable at one half (August 6 - 46%, now - 48%). Rob Ford's approval is up (from 35% to 39%) and is now higher than it has been since mid-April.





Ford Nation on the increase

One third now say they will vote for Rob Ford in October, with no other candidates mentioned (the "Ford Nation" question - 33%) and this is up sharply from two weeks ago (28%).





Fewer call for Ford's resignation

Half of Toronto voters now want Rob Ford to resign (50%), down from 6- in-10 two weeks ago (58%), and as many as two thirds in early June (June 6 - 63%).

"Well, it looks like Rob Ford is on the comeback trail, and although John Tory still has the lead, it is narrowing. Olivia Chow, on the other hand, is suffering from a different kind of over-exposure. She was introduced to her public too long before she entered the race, and has already peaked. With her timing, the election should have been in June," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.