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Jeff Sagarin's tm NHL Hockey Ratings

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NHL 2019-2020 ratings through results of 2020 SEPTEMBER 25 FRIDAY - Stanley Cup Final this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom (2) DIVISION AVERAGES (listed top-to-bottom & by conference) (3) teams listed by DIVISION (listed in order within divisions) The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89 NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season. Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings directly over their respective columns. The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively. Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The PREDICTOR , is such that the score is the only thing that matters. PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS , BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The RECENT , is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS) , GOLDEN_MEAN , and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right. Predictions_with_Totals just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NHL 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 25 Friday - Stanley Cup Final RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.28 ] [ 0.29 ] [ 0.27 ] [ 0.29 ] 1 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.81 60 33 4.03( 8) 22 16 | 31 23 | 4.72 1 | 4.79 1 | 5.11 1 ATLANTIC 2 Colorado Avalanche = 4.57 51 34 4.03( 9) 16 16 | 25 21 | 4.54 2 | 4.54 2 | 4.65 3 central 3 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.35 51 40 4.02( 16) 16 18 | 27 26 | 4.40 4 | 4.34 4 | 4.33 7 pacific 4 Dallas Stars = 4.31 51 43 4.12( 1) 24 17 | 37 26 | 4.22 11 | 4.26 9 | 4.54 5 central 5 Boston Bruins = 4.30 49 34 4.07( 3) 16 16 | 26 23 | 4.54 3 | 4.52 3 | 4.03 11 ATLANTIC 6 New York Islanders = 4.29 48 42 4.06( 5) 16 19 | 25 26 | 4.22 10 | 4.20 11 | 4.55 4 METROPOLITAN 7 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.25 51 34 4.03( 11) 14 15 | 29 23 | 4.36 5 | 4.31 5 | 4.13 10 METROPOLITAN 8 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.19 42 34 4.02( 13) 10 15 | 21 19 | 4.36 6 | 4.30 7 | 3.97 13 METROPOLITAN 9 Vancouver Canucks = 4.17 46 40 4.00( 21) 16 15 | 21 24 | 4.11 13 | 4.07 14 | 4.38 6 pacific 10 St. Louis Blues = 4.10 44 36 4.06( 4) 14 17 | 24 23 | 4.29 8 | 4.27 8 | 3.79 21 central NHL 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 25 Friday - Stanley Cup Final RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.28 ] [ 0.29 ] [ 0.27 ] [ 0.29 ] 11 Washington Capitals = 4.06 43 34 4.08( 2) 17 18 | 24 21 | 4.31 7 | 4.30 6 | 3.60 26 METROPOLITAN 12 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.04 36 43 4.05( 7) 8 23 | 15 28 | 3.93 20 | 3.92 21 | 4.31 8 central 13 Winnipeg Jets = 4.03 38 37 3.99( 29) 11 13 | 19 21 | 4.05 15 | 4.05 16 | 4.01 12 central 14 Montreal Canadiens = 4.03 36 45 4.00( 20) 12 19 | 20 22 | 3.93 22 | 3.89 23 | 4.31 9 ATLANTIC 15 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.02 38 37 3.99( 30) 12 11 | 13 21 | 4.18 12 | 4.19 12 | 3.73 23 ATLANTIC 16 Calgary Flames = 4.02 41 39 4.03( 12) 10 18 | 16 26 | 4.09 14 | 4.10 13 | 3.91 16 pacific 17 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.01 41 32 4.00( 24) 11 12 | 21 20 | 4.25 9 | 4.24 10 | 3.48 30 METROPOLITAN 18 Nashville Predators = 3.95 36 37 4.00( 26) 12 12 | 21 17 | 4.00 17 | 4.04 17 | 3.83 20 central 19 Arizona Coyotes = 3.93 37 42 4.05( 6) 10 17 | 17 25 | 3.96 18 | 3.96 19 | 3.88 17 pacific 20 Edmonton Oilers = 3.92 38 37 4.01( 19) 11 11 | 19 22 | 3.93 21 | 3.95 20 | 3.93 15 pacific NHL 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 25 Friday - Stanley Cup Final RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.28 ] [ 0.29 ] [ 0.27 ] [ 0.29 ] 21 New York Rangers = 3.89 37 36 4.00( 23) 11 18 | 20 22 | 3.96 19 | 3.98 18 | 3.73 24 METROPOLITAN 22 Florida Panthers = 3.88 36 37 4.03( 10) 9 19 | 14 27 | 4.04 16 | 4.06 15 | 3.42 31 ATLANTIC 23 Los Angeles Kings = 3.87 29 41 4.01( 18) 8 14 | 15 21 | 3.46 29 | 3.46 29 | 4.68 2 pacific 24 Minnesota Wild = 3.86 36 37 4.02( 14) 12 16 | 16 25 | 3.92 23 | 3.92 22 | 3.75 22 central 25 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.84 37 43 4.02( 15) 12 15 | 21 25 | 3.86 24 | 3.82 24 | 3.85 18 METROPOLITAN 26 New Jersey Devils = 3.73 28 41 4.00( 22) 8 14 | 14 22 | 3.56 27 | 3.66 27 | 3.93 14 METROPOLITAN 27 Buffalo Sabres = 3.67 30 39 3.99( 28) 4 18 | 9 26 | 3.66 25 | 3.66 26 | 3.71 25 ATLANTIC 28 Anaheim Ducks = 3.65 29 42 4.01( 17) 10 13 | 12 25 | 3.54 28 | 3.53 28 | 3.85 19 pacific 29 San Jose Sharks = 3.64 29 41 4.00( 25) 6 16 | 13 23 | 3.63 26 | 3.75 25 | 3.53 28 pacific 30 Ottawa Senators = 3.37 25 46 3.99( 27) 7 16 | 9 28 | 3.20 30 | 3.18 30 | 3.57 27 ATLANTIC NHL 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 25 Friday - Stanley Cup Final RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.28 ] [ 0.29 ] [ 0.27 ] [ 0.29 ] 31 Detroit Red Wings = 3.27 17 54 3.98( 31) 5 16 | 11 24 | 2.79 31 | 2.73 31 | 3.51 29 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings

There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.

DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 central = 4.09 4.12 ( 1) 7 4.12 ( 1) 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.03 4.03 ( 2) 8 4.03 ( 2) 3 pacific = 3.93 3.94 ( 3) 8 3.94 ( 3) 4 ATLANTIC = 3.91 3.92 ( 4) 8 3.92 ( 4) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 4 ATLANTIC = 3.91 3.92 ( 4) 8 3.92 ( 4) 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.03 4.03 ( 2) 8 4.03 ( 2) 1 central = 4.09 4.12 ( 1) 7 4.12 ( 1) 3 pacific = 3.93 3.94 ( 3) 8 3.94 ( 3) __________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 ATLANTIC = 3.91 3.92 ( 4) TEAMS= 8 3.92 ( 4) NHL 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 25 Friday - Stanley Cup Final RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.28 ] [ 0.29 ] [ 0.27 ] [ 0.29 ] 1 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.81 60 33 4.03( 8) 22 16 | 31 23 | 4.72 1 | 4.79 1 | 5.11 1 ATLANTIC 5 Boston Bruins = 4.30 49 34 4.07( 3) 16 16 | 26 23 | 4.54 3 | 4.52 3 | 4.03 11 ATLANTIC 14 Montreal Canadiens = 4.03 36 45 4.00( 20) 12 19 | 20 22 | 3.93 22 | 3.89 23 | 4.31 9 ATLANTIC 15 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.02 38 37 3.99( 30) 12 11 | 13 21 | 4.18 12 | 4.19 12 | 3.73 23 ATLANTIC 22 Florida Panthers = 3.88 36 37 4.03( 10) 9 19 | 14 27 | 4.04 16 | 4.06 15 | 3.42 31 ATLANTIC 27 Buffalo Sabres = 3.67 30 39 3.99( 28) 4 18 | 9 26 | 3.66 25 | 3.66 26 | 3.71 25 ATLANTIC 30 Ottawa Senators = 3.37 25 46 3.99( 27) 7 16 | 9 28 | 3.20 30 | 3.18 30 | 3.57 27 ATLANTIC 31 Detroit Red Wings = 3.27 17 54 3.98( 31) 5 16 | 11 24 | 2.79 31 | 2.73 31 | 3.51 29 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.03 4.03 ( 2) TEAMS= 8 4.03 ( 2) NHL 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 25 Friday - Stanley Cup Final RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.28 ] [ 0.29 ] [ 0.27 ] [ 0.29 ] 6 New York Islanders = 4.29 48 42 4.06( 5) 16 19 | 25 26 | 4.22 10 | 4.20 11 | 4.55 4 METROPOLITAN 7 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.25 51 34 4.03( 11) 14 15 | 29 23 | 4.36 5 | 4.31 5 | 4.13 10 METROPOLITAN 8 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.19 42 34 4.02( 13) 10 15 | 21 19 | 4.36 6 | 4.30 7 | 3.97 13 METROPOLITAN 11 Washington Capitals = 4.06 43 34 4.08( 2) 17 18 | 24 21 | 4.31 7 | 4.30 6 | 3.60 26 METROPOLITAN 17 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.01 41 32 4.00( 24) 11 12 | 21 20 | 4.25 9 | 4.24 10 | 3.48 30 METROPOLITAN 21 New York Rangers = 3.89 37 36 4.00( 23) 11 18 | 20 22 | 3.96 19 | 3.98 18 | 3.73 24 METROPOLITAN 25 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.84 37 43 4.02( 15) 12 15 | 21 25 | 3.86 24 | 3.82 24 | 3.85 18 METROPOLITAN 26 New Jersey Devils = 3.73 28 41 4.00( 22) 8 14 | 14 22 | 3.56 27 | 3.66 27 | 3.93 14 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 central = 4.09 4.12 ( 1) TEAMS= 7 4.12 ( 1) NHL 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 25 Friday - Stanley Cup Final RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.28 ] [ 0.29 ] [ 0.27 ] [ 0.29 ] 2 Colorado Avalanche = 4.57 51 34 4.03( 9) 16 16 | 25 21 | 4.54 2 | 4.54 2 | 4.65 3 central 4 Dallas Stars = 4.31 51 43 4.12( 1) 24 17 | 37 26 | 4.22 11 | 4.26 9 | 4.54 5 central 10 St. Louis Blues = 4.10 44 36 4.06( 4) 14 17 | 24 23 | 4.29 8 | 4.27 8 | 3.79 21 central 12 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.04 36 43 4.05( 7) 8 23 | 15 28 | 3.93 20 | 3.92 21 | 4.31 8 central 13 Winnipeg Jets = 4.03 38 37 3.99( 29) 11 13 | 19 21 | 4.05 15 | 4.05 16 | 4.01 12 central 18 Nashville Predators = 3.95 36 37 4.00( 26) 12 12 | 21 17 | 4.00 17 | 4.04 17 | 3.83 20 central 24 Minnesota Wild = 3.86 36 37 4.02( 14) 12 16 | 16 25 | 3.92 23 | 3.92 22 | 3.75 22 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 pacific = 3.93 3.94 ( 3) TEAMS= 8 3.94 ( 3) NHL 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 25 Friday - Stanley Cup Final RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.28 ] [ 0.29 ] [ 0.27 ] [ 0.29 ] 3 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.35 51 40 4.02( 16) 16 18 | 27 26 | 4.40 4 | 4.34 4 | 4.33 7 pacific 9 Vancouver Canucks = 4.17 46 40 4.00( 21) 16 15 | 21 24 | 4.11 13 | 4.07 14 | 4.38 6 pacific 16 Calgary Flames = 4.02 41 39 4.03( 12) 10 18 | 16 26 | 4.09 14 | 4.10 13 | 3.91 16 pacific 19 Arizona Coyotes = 3.93 37 42 4.05( 6) 10 17 | 17 25 | 3.96 18 | 3.96 19 | 3.88 17 pacific 20 Edmonton Oilers = 3.92 38 37 4.01( 19) 11 11 | 19 22 | 3.93 21 | 3.95 20 | 3.93 15 pacific 23 Los Angeles Kings = 3.87 29 41 4.01( 18) 8 14 | 15 21 | 3.46 29 | 3.46 29 | 4.68 2 pacific 28 Anaheim Ducks = 3.65 29 42 4.01( 17) 10 13 | 12 25 | 3.54 28 | 3.53 28 | 3.85 19 pacific 29 San Jose Sharks = 3.64 29 41 4.00( 25) 6 16 | 13 23 | 3.63 26 | 3.75 25 | 3.53 28 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________