Here’s who’s poised to fight for Barbara Boxer’s Senate seat

California State Attorney General Kamala Harris is among the top two names on the Democrats’ list to run for Sen. Barbara Boxer’s seat. California State Attorney General Kamala Harris is among the top two names on the Democrats’ list to run for Sen. Barbara Boxer’s seat. Photo: Michael Macor / The Chronicle Photo: Michael Macor / The Chronicle Image 1 of / 19 Caption Close Here’s who’s poised to fight for Barbara Boxer’s Senate seat 1 / 19 Back to Gallery

While plenty of California politicians are staring into a mirror today and seeing a U.S. senator look back, they might want to check their wallets before jumping into the contest to replace retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer in 2016.

With an anticipated $20 million opening ante for a contested Senate race, anyone looking to run needs to be able either to dig deep into personal funds or have plenty of wealthy friends.

“The buy-in for this game is huge,” said Jessica Levinson, who teaches election law at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles. The winning candidate “isn’t likely to be some unknown person who comes out of the shadows.”

That doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of names on the first lists of Senate wannabes, ranging from statewide officials and out-of-work politicians to members of Congress and rich folks with a yen for public office.

“It’s going to look like the Oklahoma land rush,” said former East Bay Rep. Ellen Tauscher, a Democrat now living in San Francisco who said she would “think about” running for the seat.

Harris and Newsom

The top two Democratic names on the list have long been Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Kamala Harris, former San Francisco politicians who were re-elected to office in November.

Both are proven fundraisers who have run — and won — statewide. While neither has been shy in the past about an interest in higher office, they are being coy about a Senate run.

Both Harris and Newsom released boilerplate messages Thursday praising Boxer for her years of service and revealing nothing about their plans.

But few believe a Newsom versus Harris battle is in the cards. Not only do they share many of the same political beliefs — and the same political consultant — they also apparently like each other. On Monday, for example, Newsom chose Harris to swear him in for his new term in office.

Who blinks first?

“Both of them would rather be governor, but neither one of them wants to run against each other, so whoever blinks becomes the early front-runner for the seat,” said Dan Schnur, a former aide to GOP Gov. Pete Wilson. “It’s difficult to imagine them not committing to some agreement where one runs for (the Senate) seat and the other waits to run for governor in two years.”

But waiting isn’t an option for many ambitious politicians looking to move into the Senate. There hasn’t been an open Senate seat in California since 1992, and while Sen. Dianne Feinstein will be 85 when she comes up for re-election in 2018, Boxer’s seat is the only guaranteed opening.

It’s an easier decision for state officials like Newsom, Harris, Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones and state Treasurer John Chiang, who won new four-year terms in 2014, since they’ll still have their jobs if they run and lose in 2016.

But for members of Congress, a race for Senate means surrendering their seats. Democratic Reps. Jackie Speier of Hillsborough, Loretta Sanchez of Santa Ana (Orange County), Raul Ruiz of Palm Desert (Riverside County) and others, along with Republicans like Darrell Issa of Vista (San Diego County) and Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, will have to decide whether a long-shot run is worth the cost.

Always looking

That doesn’t mean they won’t. Boxer was a Marin County congresswoman when she won the Senate seat given up by Democrat Alan Cranston in 1992.

Members of Congress “have a lot to lose, but politicians are an ambitious bunch and and always looking for the next step up,” Levinson said.

At least one Northern California officeholder is taking a look at the race. In a statement released Thursday, Democratic Rep. John Garamendi of Walnut Grove (Sacramento County) said he has been asked by friends to run and “I will consider it.”

Then there are people like environmental activist Tom Steyer, who spent millions trying, mostly unsuccessfully, to get Democrats elected to the Senate last year. Although Steyer has the money to self-finance a run for Boxer’s seat, California voters have not been kind to rich businesspeople who run for governor or the Senate.

Other Democrats being mentioned include former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Southern California Rep. Jane Harman.

As for the GOP ...

For Republicans, who don’t hold any statewide office in the strongly Democratic state, their main concern has to be coming up with a candidate who can at least finish second in the June 2016 top-two primary, avoiding the distressing prospect of a Democrat versus Democrat contest for the seat.

“The Republicans couldn’t fund a down-ballot effort last year for two candidates who were leading in the polls,” said Tony Quinn, a longtime GOP strategist. “That says to me that no Republican will be a serious candidate, especially in a presidential year,” when California Democrats typically show up to vote in big numbers.

But Republicans see San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, former state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former gubernatorial candidates Meg Whitman and Neel Kashkari as potential candidates, along with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Many of the candidates, both Republicans and Democrats, are little more than names on a list right now, and that list is likely to change dramatically in the coming days and weeks.

“I don’t know who is even looking at the seat,” Boxer said Thursday. “We can talk when more people come forward.”

John Wildermuth and Carolyn Lochhead are San Francisco Chronicle staff writers. E-mail: jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com, clochhead@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @jfwildermuth