As the Season of Judgement is now nigh upon voters, there is a degree of disillusionment that PM Modi’s delivery on the promise of providing 2 crore jobs a year have been short of expectations. Quantum of job creation is therefore going to be one of the key electoral issues for 2019.

On UPA’s much touted claims that they handed over a vibrant economy to NDA that was growing at 8.87 per cent in its first term which peaked to 9.5 percent, let’s remember that this feat was achieved during the period of 2004 to 2008. Those were the pre- crisis levels of synchronised global boom, followed by the bubble and bust thereafter. China too was growing at 10.5 per cent in the same period that UPA l had captured the peak in global boom. But after the Great Recession of 2007-08, no country was insulated, and thereafter growth-averages plummeted proportionately in India also. Besides, as regards the figures released in the latest NSC report two days back, “higher growth rate in 2009-2011 and in previous years was funded by untenable fiscal deficit and reckless extension of credit “ according to NITI Aayog’s Vice Chairman, Rajiv Kumar.

Economies can be micro- managed by policy makers upto a point. But black- swan global events and negative macro- triggers can impact employment projections. Trump’s protectionist policies, rising price of crude oil, geopolitical tensions, unanticipated Supreme Court interventions, and unforeseen market- forces due to innovations have caused unprecedented disruptions that guzzled- up the most well run corrporates with ferocity, eroding profitability and the potential to generate employment. These were force majeure occurrences that required constant government-industry recalibrations.

Unfortunately India sat out of the synchronised global recovery two years back because of the Modi-led government’s resolve for structural reforms. The interim period was undoubtedly one of set backs, but the much maligned demonetistation did ultimately lift tax buoyancy and ushered many new return filers into the formal economy, as income- tax returns increased from 3.79 crores in 2013/14 to 6.86 Crores in 2017/18. Still, India did suffer a reversal of an estimated 1 percent in GDP, which lowered job creation during that period.

No government has the capacity to create all the jobs needed to absorb its growing workforce, despite GOI having put in every effort to speed up construction activity in roadways, airways, railways, broadband, hundred percent rural electrification and low-cost housing which are all sectors that have contributed to job-creation. It is the private sector that creates jobs in capitalist countries, even as the government has been doing its fair bit by giving the necessary thrust for start-ups through the collateral-free Mudra Yojna and the self-employed category of professionals. According to EPFO data, 45lakh jobs have been created in the last six months alone, and 70 lakh jobs were created in the formal sector, which constitutes 80% of all jobs.

Let’s then have a look at the biggest laggards in job- depletion which happened due to unanticipated sectoral and serial setbacks in industry after industry. And each of the sectors enumerated below has a multiplier potential in generation of jobs because of the ancillary industries that are affected in the supply- chain downwards, affecting crores of livelihood.

The real estate sector is a key driver of growth and employment, and spurs retail credit offtake, as also has a multiplier factor because nearly 200 sub-industries feed off it. After the global economic crisis a decade back and post- demonitisation, the industry is yet to recover. Herein, builders are largely to blame for the self-inflicted debt crisis that has led to inventory build- up and inabilty to complete projects because unscrupulous builders and developers misappropriated homebuyers funds and bank loans. On the other hand, the affordable housing segment is witnessing unprecedented push from both the government and private sector. Momentum in this area is expected to gather pace in fiscal 2019 with higher budget allocations and increasing participation by private players.

Take the aviation sector, where despite healthy passenger traffic growing at 21%, the industry is unable to raise fares due to intense competition and translate the growth to higher yields. Carriers are compelled to keep fares competitive, consequently they are unable to mitigate the impact of higher input costs. While the public-sector Air India has remained in the red with a debt of about Rs 52,000 crore with no takers for its sale, even the private sector Jet Airways which is the second largest carrier has reported a whooping loss of Rs 1040 crores; while Indigo with a market share of 40% has reported a shrinkage in profits. Indian aviation provides direct employment to 220,000 people besides lakhs of indirect jobs, which are bound to be impacted due to operational losses.

Trouble in the telecom sector has also taken its toll on older players like Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular due to Reliance Jio’s predatory pricing. While the data pricing war is great for customers and enhanced teledensity, it has had a “corrosive impact on competition,” by forcing older operators into debt totalling around Rs 4.8 trillion by March 2018. The telecom sector which contributes 7per cent to the country’s GDP, and provides employment to four million people has seen gross revenues strained due to continued downward revision in realizations from voice and data revenues. There is high debt burden and consequent cash burn for all telecom operators, though Jio is insulated, as the behemoth has deep pockets to fund itself through its oil and gas cash flows.

Add to that are the woes of half a dozen stressed power companies who owe 50,000 crores to Public sector banks. As operators deal with declining revenues and cumulative debt, it has posed a challenge for policy makers and led to its proportionate share of job destruction.

Nationalised banks are amongst the biggest job creators, but have been beset by legacy issues from UPA times, as gross NPA’s of 19 nationalised banks have increased by 33 per cent over the previous fiscal, with the largest bank, SBI, having reported its hugest ever quarterly loss of Rs 7,718 crore in the March-ended quarter. Slippages from agriculture and small and medium enterprise portfolios contributed nearly 63 percent of the total watchlist. Agri-NPAs continue to be a pain-points for nationalised banks. The potential of jobs creation by banks has its own weightage in the job market.

Add to the above, are the 2,100 companies that have defaulted on repayment of loans to banks, and were forced to settle their dues of around Rs 83,000 crore before action was initiated under the newly strengthened Insolvency and Bankcruptcy Code. While the job losses accruing from these companies is difficult to account for, one can only hazard a guess at the extent of job erosion.

Then, there have been a series of Supreme Court’s judgments on telecom airwaves, mining and coal allocation cases through which licenses were cancelled en masse due to illegalities, as also the apex courts ban on liquor vends on national highways which has impacted livelihoods. Take the case of Vedanta wherein the Tamil Nadu state government ordered a permanent closure of the plant in May following protests over alleged environmental violations to shut down Vedanta Resources’ biggest copper smelter over environment concerns which has hit 350 companies that buy its products and led to over 5,000 layoffs.

Despite the sluggish job market, a recently conducted mega CEO poll affirmed India Inc’s reiterated confidence in the Modi Sarkar, with 50 percent rating economic growth as ‘good’, and 23 percent as ‘very good’. Only 7 percent opined GST had a negative impact on business, and 57 percent CEO’s endorsed they are making significant hires this year as demand has begun to revive. But 75 percent did red-flag India’s job problem, expressing serious concerns.

However, there is reason for optimism as we go into an election year. Because according to human resources service provider Team Lease, as GDP growth gets back on track to 7.5% and demand revives, the manufacturing, retail, autos, FMCG, media and entertainment, low-cost housing, educational, hospitality, and IT and knowledge sectors are seeing an increase in hiring activity. These are the sectors that are expected to generate 1.30 crore jobs between 2018-22. Also, the qualifications required for the job market has completely altered in five years, which requisites talent that has futuristic skills in Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Analytics, as employees need to constantly re-skill and up-skill in order to cope with technological disruptions.

A non-partisan interpretation of deciphering the quantum of job creation till date lies in the fact that we lack ‘reliable, real-time and single-source data’. We must admit that the real problem has been in the quality of jobs which are mostly in the informal sector where wages are low and lack social security, where as “India’s youth has raised its aspiration from subsistence wages to living wages.” PM Modi has surely upped India’s aspiration quotient, and thereby become a victim of raised benchmarks he had set in 2014. Because the yardstick for progress is no longer about roti-kapdaa- makaan, but about power, connectivity, water, health, skills, and insurance.

Bindu Dalmia, author, columnist, and Chairperson Niti Aayog for Committee on Financial Literacy.