Good news for the prime minister: the number of Canadians saying they’re ‘discouraged’ with his performance grew in December.

Discouragement with Stephen Harper grew to 40 per cent over last month, up from 34 per cent at its outset. In an emotional-response survey conducted by EKOS before Christmas, respondents were asked which of four emotions — ‘angry’, ‘discouraged’, ‘hopeful’ or ‘happy’ — each party leader elicited in them.

Why is increasing discouragement good news for Harper? Because, according to EKOS’s Frank Graves, “anger is going down and being channelled into a more discouraged outlook,” thereby frustrating the opposition parties’ get-out-the-vote plans.

“The shift from anger to discouragement is good news for the Conservatives because it means that those who aren’t going to vote for Harper are less likely to turn out,” adds Jeff Smith of EKOS. “This also means that some voters who wouldn’t have considered him before — those angry with Harper are never going to vote for him — are more likely to do so now.”

Nineteen per cent reported being angry with Stephen Harper, compared to 11 per cent for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and 10 per cent for NDP Leader Tom Mulcair. Angriest with Harper were prospective Green voters — 41 per cent — while Liberal and NDP voters came in at 27 and 24 per cent respectively.

“Anger and discouragement among Conservative voters didn’t budge in December,” says Smith. “Most of the movement from anger to discouragement came from Liberal and NDP supporters.”

On the other side of the emotional spectrum, voters seem most satisfied with Trudeau by a slim margin. Respondents were 39 per cent hopeful and 11 per cent happy with the Liberal leader, compared to 39 per cent hopeful and 8 per cent happy with Mulcair. Harper’s scores were 22 per cent hopeful and — suggestive of a base that has yet to give way — 12 per cent happy.

“Trudeau and Mulcair are pretty well emotionally twinned in voters’ minds,” says Graves, but the NDP “have lost pace … in an increasingly two-horse race.”



