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Both opposition parties in fact have anti-Harperism as the emotional dynamite of their pitch to Canadians. The very use of his name — opposition politicians say “Harper” with all the force curse words used to have — is a bugle blast to battle for many. Harper galvanizes the opposition in ways that psychology has more to tell us about than political science has ever dreamed of.

He is, when he chooses, an excellent speaker

Unfortunately for his supporters, that same name doesn’t provide the cheer or uplift that it once did. They see him as self-decidedly remote and disconnected from them. They still admire his brains, like more of his policies than they dislike, and are by no means happy with the thought of the ascendancy of either the Liberals or NDP. They admire his real skills — he is, when he chooses, an excellent speaker, he can be charming and he performs internationally in manner and style as a prime minister should.

But they deplore that he brings those skills to so little exercise, seeming either content or indifferent to leave the persuasion to support him to others rather than himself. When their best communicator doesn’t communicate, his supporters not only lose fire, they feel he’s imposing a burden on them he is indifferent to bearing himself.

There’s the real threat for Harper, and the real cost of those familiar faces wandering off from active politics. It leaves Harper as the sum total of their image. And that, in the nauseating mush of business-speak, leaves them nowhere to “grow the brand.” Those who dislike him are granite in their dislike. As opposed both to the Liberals and the NDP, the Conservatives have — barring exceptional events, like that sad day in Ottawa last fall — no way to expand beyond a fixed base. But, as recent polls inform us, they do have room to fall.