It will be difficult to beat the drama of the shock 10pm survey that predicted the Tory majority at the general election. Politicians will start hitting the airwaves, making forecasts and managing expectations.

Midnight: Result from the English bellwether town of Nuneaton

An early test for Labour will be results from Nuneaton & Bedworth council in the West Midlands. The area’s three MPs are all Conservative – including the key marginal of Nuneaton – but the council is firmly controlled by Labour. Labour needs to retain its councillors to show it is still dominant at a local level.



From 1am: Welsh declarations begin

Wales should provide a spot of good news for Labour. The party is expected to keep control of the regional assembly, albeit with a reduced number of seats. Constituency seats are scheduled to start declaring from 1am with Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney at 1am, a solidly Labour seat. However, many in Welsh Labour would maintain they are doing well in spite of Jeremy Corbyn, who was asked to stay away from the campaign in its final days.

From 2am: SNP wins in Scotland start rolling in



Constituency seats in Scotland will start declaring by the early hours of Friday morning, with the SNP expected to take nearly every single constituency seat starting with Cunninghame South. Pay close attention at 3am to Dumfriesshire, previously Labour held but which now looks like an SNP-Tory battle, and at 3.30am to Edinburgh Southern, which is Labour’s best chance of gaining a constituency seat.

Early hours: Two new Labour MPs elected

There are two Westminster byelections, both in safe Labour seats. In Ogmore, south Wales, the contest comes after Huw Irranca-Davies stepped down to run for the Welsh assembly. In Sheffield Brightside the incumbent new MP Harry Harpham died earlier this year. Both are almost certain to elect the Labour candidates as their MPs: Harpham’s widow, Gill Furniss, is standing in the Sheffield seat and Welsh councillor Chris Elmore in Ogmore. Armchair psephologists will want to see how far Labour maintains its share of the vote.

3am: The Tory v Labour battle in swing seats across England

The English council results will reveal whether Labour is making a recovery in swing seats it failed to win in 2015. Councils to watch for are Crawley, Stevenage, Plymouth, Dudley, Exeter, Southampton, Thurrock and Bolton, which are all announcing at around 3am. The Lib Dems will hope to show good results from Eastleigh, due to announce its results at about 2am, former seat of Chris Huhne which also went blue at the general election.

From 5am: The Tories may have leapfrogged Labour in Scotland

The second part of the Scottish elections – the results from the list system, will start to come through at around dawn. That will give a good breakdown of how the parties have done. At this point, it should be clear whether Labour or the Conservatives are in second place; given Labour’s historical dominance, third place would be an extraordinary result.

From 7am: Ukip may have its first assembly members

The Welsh list system results are likely to be in by now, showing the assembly members elected based on alternative votes. Watch here for how well Ukip is doing. The expectation is that Farage’s party will post gains of up to seven assembly members after it stood candidates for the first time. Former Tory MPs Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton could be among those to take seats for Ukip.

10am: Police and crime commissioners elected on a low turnout

It is easy to forget that about 40 police and crime commissioners are being elected at the same time across the country. Many people still do not know what they are, four years after the coalition introduced them as new elected representatives overseeing police forces. The candidates are a mixed bag and there are likely to be a few independents elected overnight as well as those from traditional parties; although the result from South Yorkshire, after the Hillsborough verdict on the conduct of the force, is one to keep an eye on.

From mid-morning: Liverpool and Salford declare their mayoral results

Two more places where Labour is in pole position In Liverpool, the incumbent Joe Anderson is expected to hang on easily and Paul Dennett is likely to hold the mayoralty for Labour in Salford. Bristol is not expected to announce until later on Friday – here the Labour candidate faces a tricky fight to dislodge the current independent mayor, George Ferguson.

11am: More English council results dribble through

It will be fairly clear by now whether Labour has lost councillors, held its position or made progress in the English council elections. Results such as Cannock Chase come through at 12am, which is another Labour council with a Tory MP that it had targeted in 2015. Two Yorkshire ones to watch are Kirklees and Calderdale, which the Conservatives have their eye on.

The team around Corbyn are saying Labour will do well to make any gains and to hang on to control of councils where voters opted for a Tory MP at the general election. But Labour MPs opposed to Corbyn feel the party should be well ahead and wiping the floor with the Conservatives by putting on more than 400 councillors given the poorly received budget, tax credits U-turn and controversy over academisation of schools. A key question is how much of this difference of opinion will be aired in the media.

From 1pm: Lib Dems have a chance to show a revival

Lib Dem are focusing on the traditional strongholds such as Cheltenham (results expected at lunchtime) which fell to the Tories in 2015 for the first time since 1992. Eyes too will be on Watford (due to finish at about 4pm), which has a Tory MP but a Lib Dem mayor. If they go backwards in these areas, it will be a sign the party is fading away. If they hang on at a local level, there is hope yet for Tim Farron to rebuild.

3pm: London assembly results start declaring

London does not start counting until Friday, and the first results for the assembly are expected to emerge. London is thought of as a Labour city, where support for Jeremy Corbyn – a north London MP – is particularly strong. But there are still jitters within the party about whether it will make progress in terms of assembly seats.

5pm-10pm: Sadiq Khan probably becomes London mayor for Labour

Another bright spot for Labour is likely to be regaining the city from eight years of Conservative rule under Boris Johnson. The timing of the declaration here is likely to be early on Friday evening, but could be longer depending on whether any boroughs need to recount. If Khan does not win, from having a double-digit poll lead, this will be a major upset that could even trigger an attempt to depose Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservatives have run a relentless campaign trying to associate Khan with Islamist extremists, while activists are worried that the wider row about Labour’s handling of complaints of antisemitism could have harmed their support.



Evening and weekend: The fallout

The scale of Labour relief or anger will crystallise after the London mayoral result. Corbyn supporters will have already been on the airwaves to defend the results as a boost for the leader. If the party falls short of winning seats, his opponents will be pointing to Corbyn’s comment earlier in the week that Labour would not lose councillors. A coup against Corbyn is unlikely at this point, but there could be some minor shadow ministerial resignations if it there is a really bad result for the party.

Any seat losses will be seen as less significant for the Conservatives because the governing party generally does badly in local elections – although Scotland may be an exception – when voters tend to take their chance to give the government a kicking. The smaller parties around the country will be hoping to edge forward, except the SNP which hopes to maintain its hegemony.