Article content continued

Some figures suggest Scheer is now preferred as prime minister by more Canadians than Trudeau. In all cases the margin of error remains significant, but if there are two groups of voters Liberals absolutely must win, it’s urban residents and millennials.

The website 338Canada.com reports an analysis of polls gives the Liberals a 46 per cent chance of retaining their majority, with recent numbers showing a slow slide. At the same time, figures from individual provinces show somewhere between 60 per cent and 85 per cent of voters plan to vote against handing them a second term. During the Harper years, left-wingers and “progressives” bleated endlessly about the supposed unfairness of Conservatives running the country with less than 50 per cent support. With Trudeau barely able to claim the backing of a third of Canadians they’ve been notably quiet, especially since his government abandoned its pledge of electoral reform once the prime minister’s preferred alternative fell out of the running. Will columnists at the Toronto Star and CBC be there on election night to decry the insult to democracy should the Liberals somehow hold onto power with the help of fewer than four out of 10 voters? Oh yeah, you bet.

Maybe, like Rocky Balboa, Trudeau is holding back his best punch until late in the contest. Maybe he’ll unleash it during one of the two remaining debates, though only one is in English and will feature six candidates overseen by five moderators, which suggests lots of room for interruptions, shouting and confusion, and little for sustained questioning. Trudeau refused to participate in two of three earlier debates, calculating the risk was too great. If his fortunes don’t improve soon, he may come to wish he’d taken the chance.

• Twitter: KellyMcParland