In light of the federal government’s program to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of February of this year, it is not surprising that net international migration made a significant contribution to Canada’s population growth in the first quarter. Indeed the gain in Syrian refugees, plus a net inflow of 61,216 individuals from other countries, resulted in a net increase of 86,666 international migrants who accounted for a record 81% of the 106,966 increase in Canada’s population (bringing the total to 36,155,478) during the first quarter. To put the latest gain in perspective, over the past ten years net international migration has averaged 62,700 and accounted for approximately 65% of the increase in total population.

Across the country, the surge in net international migration contributed to population growth in all ten provinces and it more than offset outflows of individuals to other provinces which occurred in eight of the ten provinces. Consistent with the pattern of international migration since 1961, the majority (45.4%, 39,357) of foreign immigrants arriving in Canada in the first quarter of 2016 chose to initially settle in Ontario. Indeed, this inflow of individuals from outside the country, plus 1,101 migrants from other provinces and a natural increase (i.e. births minus deaths) of 6,108, caused the Trillium province’s population to post its largest year over year population gain (1.2%) since mid-2005.

After Ontario, Quebec accepted 13,573 foreign migrants. This inflow of individuals from other countries plus a natural increase of 3,690 was partly offset by a net loss of 1,221 individuals to other provinces, the smallest net interprovincial outflow since Q4/2011.

The strong economic headwinds being faced by Alberta appear to be the prime cause of a net outflow of 1,788 residents to other provinces in the first quarter. However, despite this interprovincial exodus, the largest since the fourth quarter of 2009, the wild rose province saw its population grow by 17,883 in the quarter due to the combination of a net inflow of 12,050 foreign migrants plus a natural increase of 7,621. It’s worth noting that Alberta’s total population rose by 1.8% y/y in Q1, the fastest year-over-year increase of the ten provinces and well above the 1.1% y/y increase recorded by the country as a whole.

For the third consecutive quarter, British Columbia has attracted the most migrants from other provinces. After a gain of 3,762 in the final quarter of 2015, net interprovincial migration totalled 5,067 in Q1/16 largely as a result of a 2,628 inflow from neighbouring Alberta. This gain in net interprovincial migration was accompanied by an inflow of 7,426 international migrants. While the combination of solid gains in interprovincial and international net migration made a significant contribution to the province’s Q1 population growth, natural increase in the province was only 1,418, its smallest rise in more than seventy years.

From our perspective there are a number of key takeaways from the latest population report. First, the very strong net inflow of international migrants into Ontario should underpin housing demand in the province (especially Toronto) well into 2017. Second, although Alberta’s population growth has slowed over the past two years, the fact that its population increase has still outpaced the rest of the country, despite very low oil prices, suggests that its economy is more resilient than most had expected. Finally, although the B.C. government’s recently announced tax on foreign home buyers may cause a hiatus in home sales, the sustained growth of net migration into the province coupled with strong employment growth over the past year indicates home sales should rebound in the final quarter of this year or early in 2017.