Today’s European elections are a challenge to me — and to many others. I am familiar with elections in which a traditional two-party system decides the outcome. Contests in which most people back the Conservatives or Labour — or just decide to opt out. But in these crucial elections there is no Conservative or Labour policy on Europe for us to choose between. Both parties are hopelessly divided. Both leaders are in trouble, the Prime Minister surviving in Downing Street hour by hour as even once loyal ministers lose faith and any publication of legislation on Brexit is promised and then put off because Cabinet ministers cannot support it.

So let’s recognise this election today for what it is. A European election — about our place in Europe. Realistically, there is only one question that matters today: are we in, or are we out? That is the question you must answer with your vote. I have already made my decision. I shall vote Liberal Democrat for the first time, five decades after I first stood as a Conservative candidate for Parliament in 1959.

Why? Because the strongest possible showing for the Liberal Democrats, in the face of the Brexit Party ’s toxic populism, is the best way of maintaining the UK’s power and influence in Europe and beyond. It may be, in other parts of the UK, that other parties have a better prospect of defending the pro-European cause. But the vital question remains the same.

What will happen in the next few days? No one can be sure — not even, I suspect, the Prime Minister. Many people, of course, know what they want to see happen. I believe a second referendum is necessary and that a strong showing for parties which want to remain in the European Union will be a step towards one. But no one, on either side of the choice facing our country, is certain about how to achieve their ambitions. We are in deadlock. That is the problem.

When the results come in from these elections on Sunday night they are going to be a disaster for the Conservative Party. That will be the fault of zealots on the Right who would not compromise and a leader who did not stand up to them, as she could and should have done. By voicing my support in these elections for the Liberal Democrats I have had the Conservative Party whip in the House of Lords taken away, although I remain a member and I intend to stay as one. So be it. But why, I wonder, have Brexiteers who have shown sustained disloyalty to this leader and ones before her been treated differently?

The most likely consequence of this election will be a long period of bloodletting and recriminations. Indeed, it has already begun. I don’t know how long it will take the Conservatives to recognise this disaster and rediscover its traditional route to power — either through the aftermath from a catastrophic period of Labour government or through the appeal of the policies of One Nation Conservatism. Or perhaps both.

I have been a One Nation Conservative all my life, and unlike some of those who now claim to be one in the leadership contest which is now under way in all but name, I have fought for those values. Indeed, I challenged a Prime Minister in their name. They involve a respect for our place in the world and for the role business plays in ensuring all parts of our society can succeed. They are Conservative values, which is why I am still a Conservative — and some of those who are now attempting to take control of our party are not real Conservatives at all but a destructive force, damaging to both my party and our country.

"I have seen Europe fought over for decades inside the Conservative Party and truce after truce fall apart"

What is the right response to this? Some say leave the party — the battle is lost. I say stay and fight. The battleground is the old and predictable one of Europe. I have seen it fought over for decades inside the Conservative Party, and have seen truce after truce fall apart. But Europe is not the battleground I would choose. Obsessives who believe that if only we can leave the European Union, voters would thank us, are entirely wrong.

A recent poll showed that the Conservatives have the support of only five per cent of voters aged 18-25. The same poll showed the party had majority support only among voters aged over 51. Results from the European elections, fought by a Prime Minister who says she is desperate to deliver Brexit, whatever that means, will be even more catastrophic.

That is where the future points if we do not change. And that is why I intend to remain a Conservative, to fight for change.

We cannot, as a party, talk to ourselves. We need to speak to the people. And we should not dismiss them or be afraid of what they tell us — which is that the narrow appeal of a relentless obsession about exiting the European Union is the route to self-destruction. So many of the things that conservatism stands for matter today: a powerful economy, strong defence, a respect for the rule of law and for business.

Such things are being forgotten amid the crazed roar from the Brexiteers. The current Prime Minister tried to silence this and has now failed. Her successor must be someone who can do it.