Indian e-commerce is projected to explode from $10 billion to $43 billion in the next five years, according to Nomura’s India Internet Report last month. There are 11 categories, and within them 42 players, that are poised to shape this blazing path.The multi-category segment is on fire this year. The largest pie of the online retail ecosystem is drawing the maximum risk capital and eyeballs.The top three players — Flipkart, Snapdeal and Amazon — are expected to do $4 billion in sales this fiscal. “Indians are horizontal bazaar shoppers and don’t have deep vertical buying experience offline in most categories,” says Suvir Sujan, co-founder of Nexus Venture Partners, an early investor in Snapdeal.Today, all multi-category players are on the inventory-less marketplace model. They are all investing heavily in warehouses and delivery. They are making acquisitions. “You will see us do some very interesting and strategic acquisitions very soon,” says Kunal Bahl, cofounder and CEO of Snapdeal.VC firm Accel Partners expects the product e-tailing market to expand from $2 billion in 2013 to $8.5 billion in 2016. And, for now, the focus is more on growth and less on profitability.If the multi-product players have the largest share of eyeballs, the travel portals have the wallet. At around $8 billion, online travel accounted for 70% of the overall Indian e-commerce market in 2013, according to IAMAI. Three shifts are underway. One, with air tickets becoming a staple, travel portals are turning their focus to hotel bookings and travel packages. “Online penetration (of hotel bookings) is only around 7%,” says a recent Nomura research report.“Commissions paid by hotels are nearly 3x those in the air (ticket) segment.” Two, there’s a growing emphasis on smartphone traffic and applications. “Mobile is the perfect channel for a travel company to provide real value to the customer and create higher engagement by enabling an easy travel-booking experience,” says Deep Kalra, founder & group CEO of Makemytrip, the largest online travel agency. Three, the segment has seen early signs of consolidation.After electronics, fashion and lifestyle is the largest category in online retail, with a 25% share. But unlike electronics, it is more the domain of specialists than marketplaces. Myntra, part of Flipkart, and Jabong are the leaders, competing fiercely with discounts and for exclusive brand partnerships. Myntra, which is targeting sales of Rs 2,000 crore this fiscal, has raced ahead by launching several private labels, including Roadster and Dressberry. While external brands give a margin of up to 35%, in-house labels go up to 60%. Jabong, which has exclusive partnerships with international brands and designers, is also lining up its own labels.Then, there are web-only brands like Fab Alley, Zovi and Yepme. And, lastly, there are the multi-category players. Large players could drive acquisitions. “Don’t be surprised, with the advent of online players like Asos and large Chinese players coming into India,” says Sudhir Sethi, founder-chairman of early-stage venture fund IDG Ventures India. “These players would not like to start ground-up but will look for an acquisition to be the base for their India entry.”Furniture is tipped to become the third largest segment in e-commerce, after electronics and fashion/lifestyle. The value of goods sold by leading players is on course to increase 3-4 times this fiscal. What makes furniture an interesting category, says Niren Shah, managing director at Norwest Venture Partners India, is that it’s a $15-20 billion market but consumers don’t have many offline choices.Pepperfry and Urban Ladder are the leaders, the latter recording average ticket sizes of Rs 18,000-20,000. Among marketplaces, Snapdeal has launched, and Flipkart and Amazon are exploring. But they might not find it easy, given that existing players took nearly two years to perfect logistics and supplies. “Furniture is different from all other categories,” says Ashish Goel, founder & CEO of Urban Ladder. “Players need to build a specialised supply chain and also help in building the manufacturer ecosystem.” Similarly, Pepperfry is working with manufacturers to build furniture that can be assembled on delivery. The pieces of this segment are falling in place.With an estimated market of $350-400 billion, the grocery segment is larger than anything else. “What is seductive about the grocery segment is the high frequency of transactions,” says Rehan Yar Khan, founder of Orios Venture Partners. It’s also challenging. One needs to build hyper-local sourcing, warehouses and supply chain. Hence, expansion across regions is staggered. The exception is BigBasket, which is in three cities. Online players stock 12,000-13,000 products, against 400-500 by kirana stores. But, “logistics is a challenge in terms of timing, order sizes and the large inventory,” says Vipul Parikh, co-founder and CFO, BigBasket.Even as e-tailing explodes, by 2020, 97% of the estimated retail sales of Rs 62,40,000 crore will still happen off line, says Technopak. A large percentage will be made by small shops and establishments. Platforms like Just Dial, Findable, PriceBaba and Zopper are looking to bring them online in multiple ways.BookMyShow is doing the same with ticket bookings in arts and entertainment. Just Dial, the largest local-search player with revenues of Rs 561 crore in 2013-14, extended into transactions this January, enabling services like doctor appointments and flower deliveries. This week, it will venture into products. “Transaction part will be our focus in the near future,” says founder and CEO VSS Mani.Zopper and PriceBaba are also expanding quickly. India has 100-120 million internet users, but only around 20-40 million have shopped online. Such shoppers are referred to as ROPOs (research online, purchase offline). With more smartphones and data connections, their numbers are expected to increase.While horizontals and verticals battle for market share, some e-commerce websites are differentiating by targeting niche customer profiles. GreenDust sells factory seconds and refurbished consumer electronic products at a 10%-76% discount to market price. Limeroad is a social-shopping platform focused on women that also offers users tools to curate and share collections online.Onemi sells products only on equated monthly instalment even to customers who don’t have a credit card. “There is a huge segment of customers who don’t speak good English and are not on the Internet, but are hungry for these aspirational products,” says founder Abhijit Bhandari, who adds Onemi is recording monthly sales of Rs 20 crore.While other verticals are expected to feel the heat of multi-product players, the niches could create their own market. “If there is demand-side differentiation, those will continue to exist and continue to thrive,” says Avnish Bajaj of Matrix Partners India, which has invested in Limeroad.While multi-product players have a large selection of babycare and kidswear products, a few single-category players have emerged. The leader is Pune-based FirstCry, founded by Supam Maheshwari and Amitava Saha in 2011. “Globally, and in India, the babycare category has always had a specialised leader that has captured dominant market share. With repeat buying rates above 70%, this category has huge capital efficiency in marketing,” says Manik Arora, MD of IDG Ventures Indi, an early investor in FirstCry.FirstCry is flanking its online presence with stores — 70 running and 30 more coming this year. It is partnering international brands to provide free hospital kits to parents of newborns in about 6,000 hospitals in top 18 cities. “We are able to engage with customers at the most important point — the birth of their child,” says Maheshwari. Other prominent players, with an estimated potential of $500 million, are BabyOye and Hopscotch. They hope to grow with India’s rising population.This is one segment where niche portals have managed to build strong franchisees. While the focus of Healthkart is protein supplements and personal care, that of Lenskart is eyecare. It currently does around 2,000 shipments per day of both prescription glasses and sunglasses, up from 600 a year ago. It expects to post revenues of Rs 100 crore this fiscal.Healthkart sells products in a range of categories. Other startups in the healthcare segment include Healthadda, Healthgenie and Saralhealth. Players have been looking to personalise their offering to attract customers. For instance, Lenskart also provides eye check-ups at home. “Most spectacle providers are focused on those who already wear glasses. But almost 75% of those who need glasses do not know they need one or don’t wear them,” says Peyush Bansal, founder of Valyoo Technologies, which runs Lenskart. “We want to expand to this market and provide access to good quality eyecare.”Stores, in general, have failed to offer Indian women a wide choice of products or a comfortable shopping experience. Online players are stepping in, offering a wide variety of products, new categories like shapewear and the privacy to shop without human contact.All are betting the $2 billion market will grow and will shift online. So do their backers. “If you look at China, the largest category in e-tailing is apparel, with around 35% marketshare. In that, lingerie is 10%-15% of the entire apparel market,” says Rehan Yar Khan, an angel investor. He has invested in PrettySecrets, which started as an offline player, grew to 200 stores in six years, and shifted online. While horizontals do sell lingerie, none has a wide presence. Taking advantage, companies like Zivame are attempting to corner the market with initiatives like try-and-buy. Going forward, “large players like Flipkart and Myntra could acquire them to make these brands anchor tenants on their website,” says Khan.Given India’s appetite for jewellery, this segment is a no-brainer for e-commerce. Even as physical stores struggle with growth, Caratlane is doubling by the year. “The biggest challenge in jewellery retailing is the cost of inventory,” says Mithun Sacheti, founder & CEO of Caratlane. “We don’t maintain inventory and follow just-in-time manufacturing, which allows us to spend on marketing and on acquiring new customers.”But even online has limitations. High-ticket products means customer trust has to be built first. Ficci estimates the market at Rs 2,51,000 crore in 2013, with the potential to double by 2018. Market players believe only 1% of this is online.They also believe it’s a business for specialists. “As this segment is driven by innovation in designs and launches, it lends itself to private-label play with higher margins. This will be difficult for horizontals to master,” says TC Meenakshisundaram, MD of IDG Ventures India. “Horizontals may find it easy to buy a successful vertical player.”