Debates don't tend to fundamentally reshape presidential elections, but there's a chance that Romney’s historic performance might prove to be an exception. While it’s still early to judge the exact size and duration of Romney’s bounce, it has already given him his first lead in the national polls. As of last night, every post-debate national poll either shows a tied race or a slight Romney advantage, with Romney averaging a 1.4-point lead among likely voters.

But while there are not yet enough state polls to confidently judge whether Romney’s bounce cascaded across the electoral map, there are signs that Obama has fared slightly better in the battleground states than he has nationally. An equal number of battleground state polls show Obama or Romney ahead, even though Obama starts with more electoral votes and the majority of polls were conducted by firms typically producing Republican-leaning results (WAA, ARG, Rasmussen, and Gravis).

Yesterday's CNN and SurveyUSA polls in Ohio are potentially troubling signs for the Romney campaign. Heading into the debates, Obama led by a larger margin in Ohio than he did nationally, so Romney needed outsized gains in one of Ohio, Wisconsin, or both Nevada and Iowa to break Obama's easiest route to 270. If polls confirm that Obama maintains a slight lead in the key tipping point states, even at the height of Romney's post-debate bounce, it would be an indicator of Obama's resilience in perhaps 2012's most critical state. Certainly, new polls could show Romney holding an edge in Ohio, but so far there is not strong evidence that Romney has taken a lead in the Buckeye State.