What will Europe be like in, say, 10 years’ time, when the matter of Article 50 has become a distant memory? It’s important to try and stand back because this is one of those moments when there is too much short-term comment and too little long-term perspective. The noise drowns out the signals – and the signals in any case are pretty weak.

So try this sketch, set out as 10 points.

One, there is a model for the relationship between the UK and the EU that already exists: Switzerland. The template is not a perfect fit, for Switzerland has only eight million people, but it is extremely wealthy – on most measures it is the richest country on earth. It is completely surrounded by EU countries, so in one sense the challenge of maintaining good relations with its neighbours is even greater than the one that faces the UK.

'We already miss you': Donald Tusk after receiving Article 50 letter

Two, carrying on this idea of the UK as a big Switzerland, the Europe of 2027 will continue to be an integrated economic area even if other countries decide to follow the UK and leave. Indeed it will be an integrated economic area even if the EU fails to survive in its present form.

Three, the future of the euro is less clear. I happen to expect the Eurozone to break into two, a north and a south, with financial controls in between. But whether that is right or wrong, the European economy will continue to have reasonable, though slow, economic growth. Living standards, which have stagnated in much of Europe for the past decade, will have crept up a bit.

Four, there will still be a gap in economic performance between north and south, and that will continue to create tensions. The gap has tended to widen in the past decade and at best will take a generation to close. It may widen further.

Five, while the continental European economy will continue to grow in absolute terms, it will shrink relative to the rest of the world. This trend has been evident for the past 20 years, and is driven largely by the size of the working population, which has started to shrink. The UK will probably grow somewhat faster than the Eurozone, irrespective of the impact of Brexit, driven by relatively favourable demographics.

Six, immigration into the UK will continue, though not at quite the rate of recent years. So the European labour market will remain a fluid one.

How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite Show all 8 1 /8 How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite Weetabix Chief executive of Weetabix Giles Turrell has warned that the price of one of the nation’s favourite breakfast are likely to go up this year by low-single digits in percentage terms. Reuters How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite Nescafé The cost of a 100g jar of Nescafé Original at Sainsbury’s has gone up 40p from £2.75 to £3.15 – a 14 per cent rise—since the Brexit vote. PA How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite Freddo When contacted by The Independent this month, a Mondelez spokesperson declined to discuss specific brands but confirmed that there would be "selective" price increases across its range despite the American multi-national confectionery giant reporting profits of $548m (£450m) in its last three-month financial period. Mondelez, which bought Cadbury in 2010, said rising commodity costs combined with the slump in the value of the pound had made its products more expensive to make. Cadbury How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite Mr Kipling cakes Premier Foods, the maker of Mr Kipling and Bisto gravy, said that it was considering price rises on a case-by-case basis Reuters How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite Walkers Crisps Walkers, owned by US giant PepsiCo, said "the weakened value of the pound" is affecting the import cost of some of its materials. A Walkers spokesman told the Press Association that a 32g standard bag was set to increase from 50p to 55p, and the larger grab bag from 75p to 80p. Getty How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite Marmite Tesco removed Marmite and other Unilever household brand from its website last October, after the manufacturer tried to raise its prices by about 10 per cent owing to sterling’s slump. Tesco and Unilever resolved their argument, but the price of Marmite has increased in UK supermarkets with the grocer reporting a 250g jar of Marmite will now cost Morrisons’ customers £2.64 - an increase of 12.5 per cent. Rex How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite Toblerone Toblerone came under fire in November after it increased the space between the distinctive triangles of its bars. Mondelez International, the company which makes the product, said the change was made due to price rises in recent months. Pixabay How Brexit affected Britain's favourite foods from Weetabix to Marmite Maltesers Maltesers, billed as the “lighter way to enjoy chocolate”, have also shrunk in size. Mars, which owns the brand, has reduced its pouch weight by 15 per cent. Mars said rising costs mean it had to make the unenviable decision between increasing its prices or reducing the weight of its Malteser packs. iStockphoto

Seven, there will be no hard borders for trade in Europe. There is an open border between Switzerland and its neighbours now. That model will continue. However there will be more controls over movement of people, a trend already evident in Eastern Europe.

Eight, coming back to the UK, our labour market will remain an open one. There may be some rebalancing between EU immigrants and those from other developed countries, notably the US, Canada and Australia. But we need the skills that immigrants bring.

Nine, UK trade will drift away from Europe towards the rest of the world. That trend is already apparent, with Europe as a proportion of our trade falling by around one percentage point a year. That is not because of any policy decision; it is simply the result of wider economic forces, in particular the shift of economic activity towards the emerging world.

And finally – and this is important – the European and UK economies ten years hence will not be so different from the economies now. This will be a reasonably successful economic region. The challenges of today will continue: trying to provide good social services and health care for what will, along with Japan, become the oldest societies on earth. But the technical competence of the UK and Europe will not be undermined by Brexit. Indeed if Brexit is negotiated successfully, the ability of both sides in this squabble to cope with these wider social and economic challenges may well turn out to be better, not worse.