With Byleth coming out this week, we’re getting a patch of some kind and it may well be a balance patch because Ultimate hasn’t had one in a while. But even that isn’t too certain as Ultimate’s meta is in a pretty nice spot. The game isn’t dominated by any single character, the top tiers aren’t suffocating, and the competition is still very character diverse.



Still, I think Nintendo will bring at least some balance changes to the table. The question is what those changes will be. And that question makes patch time, and even patch content, stressful for the Smash community. Everyone is wondering how their main will be treated and trying to keep the buzz down so Nintendo hit their character with the nerf bat. Meanwhile a lot of content focuses on directing that hammer and calling for nerfs.

In an effort to have a bit more fun with the patch circus, I want to play a prediction game. Rather than state my desired nerfs or buffs, I’ve gone through the past patches some and I’ve combed for patterns. Now I’m gonna try and predict a few upcoming balance changes.



I will almost certainly be wrong in most of my predictions but that’s part of the fun. In order to make myself less wrong, admit some fallibility, and give the article a bit more depth, I’m going to be assigning probability to each outcome. Instead of just saying, “x will be nerfed” I’ll add a percent value to show how likely x will be nerfed.

Joker will be nerfed

75% chance

I think this is one of the most likely outcomes for the next balance patch. Joker has a heavy presence at the top level even outside of MKLeo. Nintendo doesn’t nerf top tiers for being top tiers, but if you look at the pattern of top tier nerfs so far, Joker lines up.

Nintendo nerfed Peach, Olimar, Pokemon Trainer, Pichu, and Wolf. Not only were these characters close to consensus top tiers when nerfed, but they were pretty common to see in Top 8 and a lot of players picked them up as mains and secondaries. A roughly similar process is underway with Joker and it makes me think he’s surfin’ for a nerfin’.



There’s a chance Nintendo doesn’t touch him because they’ve been careful patches. They may let his reign at the top of the tier list ride. But I’d put his chances of getting nerfed eventually even higher than 75%. My real wonder is how big the hit will be.

At least one Mii will be buffed

75% chance

With the inclusion of a lot of brand new, pretty popular costumes Nintendo has all the more reason to buff the Miis. Nor would it be off the pattern for them. The Miis all rank somewhere in the mid to low range and Nintendo likes to buff in that range because Smash players like these buffs.



I don’t think Nintendo is interested in doing the sweeping, game philosophy-based balance changes you see in League of Legends or Dota 2. I think Nintendo wants to make mostly popular decisions that engage casual and competitive players alike. So they buff mid and low tiers because pretty much everyone likes that. Now I think it’s the Miis’ turn because they’ve got new costumes to bump up popularity and it’s been a while since they’ve been touched.

Zero Suit Samus will be nerfed

65% chance

Is this a hot take? Maybe in the US. On the surface, Zero Suit Samus doesn’t seem particularly busted – and she might not be. However she’s definitely great – never dipping below high tier and pretty much consensus top tier good. Most importantly, she’s very good in Japan and starting to show up more in the US (outside of Marss, who has been showing up).

I base the 65% on Nintendo being a Japanese developer and being especially connected with the Japanese scene. And there is some proof, albeit limited, of my idea in previous patches. Pichu and Olimar, who both took some of the hardest nerfs, were very prevalent in Japan. And in patch 2.0, before American tier lists started putting ZSS in S-tier, Nintendo did nerf her very slightly.



I could see ZSS staying under the radar in the sense that Nintendo is unpredictable and no character is that much of a problem. However, this character has more staying power in Japan than most characters. So I see this as a likely nerf that might surprise a lot of American smashers.

Pit will be at least partially fixed/buffed

65% chance

Props to Nintendo on this; they don’t like their products to be super janky. Nintendo has done a better job of fixing their poorly functioning characters than a lot of much more plugged in, much more patch happy companies do.



Based on what they’ve done for Ken, Ryu, Bayonetta, Lucario, and their general fixes, I see them going after the Pits soon. These two illiterate angel babies are the poster children of jank right now and Nintendo probably doesn’t want that to stand. I’d put the probability higher but with Nintendo busy with Byleth and with very few people caring about Pit, he might get ignored.

Corrin and Isabelle will be buffed

60% chance

To make things interesting, I’m guessing for two here. If the pattern holds, there’s a great chance Nintendo buffs some low and mid tier characters, the question is simply who. Nintendo, and most companies, like to let buffs and nerfs sit so I’m predicting against repeat buffs. Corrin and Isabelle both haven’t had notable buffs in a while. On top of that, they’re both fairly well liked and interesting.



The only thing that holds them back is the raw number of low and mid tiers available for buffing, and gambling on them on both at once. There’s still a chance they get passed over for other similarly neglected characters, but my money is on them both getting at least some baby buffs.

Palutena will be nerfed

55% chance

These odds might strike some of you as low. With Nairo’s success, Abadango’s recent revival, and the fact that everyone has a pocket Palutena, surely Palutena qualifies for a nerf. This is all true, and we’ve seen other characters with a lot of meta presence get nerfed. However, as ZSS is a bigger deal in Japan, Palutena is a bigger deal in the US.



On top of that, Palutena’s success is more recent and a bit less consistent. While she has a very strong presence in Top 128 of American brackets, she’s not a consistent tournament winner and sometimes not even in Top 8’s. Of course, that could be said of other top tiers and it’s often not enough to save them.

What makes me go past 50% is both Palutena’s usage and reputation. Nintendo has seemed totally alright with nerfing on grounds of popularity and annoyance factor. It’s happened to Olimar, to Pichu, and with the across the board nerfs to projectile shield damage. I could see it happening to Palu, though I’m far from certain. Especially since pro players use her in a way that’s pretty exciting for viewers.

Game and Watch will be nerfed

50% chance

This is a controversial one because by merit of results and meta presence, Game and Watch would not deserve the nerf. Game and Watch is a certified great character now and he does have Zackray, as well as some regional threats, playing him. Still, most of his major success comes from Maister and he’s not as dominant and prevalent as the top tiers.



However, I think Nintendo nerfs characters based on what annoys people, whether that’s a good reason or not. We can see this in Nintendo’s slight K. Rool and Isabelle touches and certainly in Nintendo’s Olimar nerfs. Game and Watch is a uniquely annoying character by a lot of viewer and player accounts and that puts a target on his back.



But Game and Watch just isn’t as prevalent as Pichu or Olimar were. He isn’t played nearly as often so he isn’t crowding out a lot of lower tier characters. He’s not the same level of threat as peak Olimar or as current Joker, Palu, and ZSS. Nintendo has less immediate pressure to nerf G&W and they’re patching philosophy so far hasn’t been nerf heavy or reactionary.



Between Nintendo’s nerf conservatism and desire to be make popular balance decisions, this one’s a toss up.

Ultimate patch: Final thoughts and prayers

These are just some of my predictions for the next balance. You could make a lot more good predictions and I encourage you to do so in the comments. With 70 characters, the guessing game for balance decisions becomes both stressful and fun! You never know just where Nintendo is looking or what they’ll do.

Just as we all gave up hope that Kirby would ever get buffs, Nintendo gave him help across the board. Just after Nintendo knocked Pichu and Olimar out of top tier with strong nerfs, they nerfed Peach so slightly that she didn’t go anywhere. Nintendo’s patching philosophy clearly adapts a lot to public opinion and to previous results, which makes it hard to trust the patterns you do spot.

That said, I’m happy with Nintendo’s current balance approach and I think you can find some general rules inside it. Buffs are probably more likely than nerfs. Where there are nerfs, they’re probably going to be small. The largest nerfs we got still haven’t knocked Olimar or Pichu out of relevance. Bad reputation will probably increase chances of nerfing since Nintendo does consider popular opinion when balancing and will balance for competitors, casuals, and viewers. Small mechanical fixes will be common too, and that’s only fitting and good for a game this large.

But who knows? Maybe the next slew of balance changes will throw everything out the window. We can only wait and see.