Note: I’m doing this forecast because both new releases are coming out on Wednesday, and I’ll update every few days throughout the holiday.

Terminator: Genisys is the big new film of the weekend, though the audience for the aging franchise is getting tired of bad sequel after bad sequel. Both 3 and Salvation received considerably worse reactions than either of the first two, meaning James Cameron could be whats missing from this franchise. That, or the new sequels are just bad films. Genisys isn’t exactly knocking critics off of their feet either, with a nasty yet predictable 22% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. Combining that with the very controversial spoiler filled second trailer and you have a film that pretty much no one wants to see on a weekend with a lot of other appealing competiton. Throw in a $170M budget and you have the perfect recipe for a summer flop.

Given that this appears to be another reboot of the long running franchise, this newest installment could be confusing to audiences, who might not be able to tell if this is a sequel to the much maligned Terminator Salvation and a plot that leaves even the most die hard fans grasping at straws to try and figure out what on earth is supposed to be happening in this muddled, confusing timeline.

Despite costing less than a tenth of Terminator, Magic Mike XXL may actually do better business. The original has a fairly strong reputation and a holiday weekend is the perfect time for it to come out. It also has pretty decent reviews, with a 65% on Rotten Tomatoes so far. The original was very much a surprise hit, and this sequel probably won’t do nearly as well overall. It may face the same dilemma as Ted 2 from last weekend, both of which came out the same weekend and have sequels just a few days apart.

Predictions

1. Inside Out – $30M ($45M Five Day)

2. Jurassic World – $29M ($42M Five Day)

3. Terminator Genisys $28M ($47M Five Day)

4. Magic Mike XXL $26M ($33M Five Day)

The Bottom Line

Terminator Salvation opened to $71M over its five day opening. Genisys should be at least around $60M to get a pass. Magic Mike XXL is fine if its over $30M by the end of the holiday.