Many campaigns and most incumbents do not perform regular issue polling at the state or congressional district level, meaning that they typically have to guesstimate whether a given issue will be popular among their specific electorates based on national support. Simply put, there isn't district-by-district evidence regarding the electoral viability of the progressive agenda. Until now.

For our New Progressive Agenda Project, Data for Progress (@DataProgress) enlisted Civis Analytics (@CivisAnalytics), a leading data science firm, to poll a dozen progressive policies. Our goal is to give policymakers the most reliable numbers to date on support for a new and vibrant progressive agenda. For each policy, we asked a leading politician or expert to explain why it’s necessary. But in addition, we tested it with the public. These policies have durable support and can stand up to predictable right-wing counterarguments. We have good reason to believe that even when they become politicized, they’ll remain popular with persuadable voters and the base in many geographies.

The New Progressive Agenda Project gives policymakers and advocates reliable congressional district and state-level polling data that would normally be out of reach for even the best-funded campaign. In the coming weeks, we’ll be periodically releasing new data on progressive proposals that are message-tested and ready to be introduced in the 116th Congress. Using the state-of-the-art modeling techniques employed by leading campaign professionals, we are confident that these policies will remain popular in the electorate at large while also engaging the progressive base. They have been carefully vetted by veteran campaigners from Civis Analytics, which was formed by the data scientists who oversaw Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. Civis’s political data science arm is one of the most reputable in the business. These numbers are the gold standard -- they are actionable by candidates and campaigns.

It’s time for unabashed progressive policies that can win.

Today, we roll out our first set of policies:

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (@ SenGillibrand ) makes the case for family leave

Senator Tammy Baldwin (@ SenatorBaldwin ) makes the case for employee governance (also known as worker co-determination)

Senator Cory Booker (@ CoryBooker ) makes the case for a federal investment in fair housing

State Senate candidate Zellnor Myrie (@ zellnor ) looks at public housing from a state perspective

State Senator Kevin de León (@ kdeleon ) makes the case for free college

Political scientist David Faris (@davidmfaris) makes the case for DC, Puerto Rico and territory statehood

Methodology:

Civis Analytics fielded support for five progressive policies to determine public support for the policies. Full question wording is available below, but here it is important to note that questions included a revenue pay-for where needed, as well as both partisan cues and counterframes throughout. In other words, respondents were told that these policies were being proposed by Democrats, and were given reasons why Republicans say they should oppose them. The average sample for analysis was 5,925 and these surveys were fielded between February 15th, 2018 and August 2nd, 2018. Using using modern machine learning techniques, Civis generated estimates for Clinton voters, Trump voters, Independent voters, drop-off voters (who voted in 2016 but not 2014) and the overall electorate. Because our goal is to provide information that can be immediately relevant to politicians, the overall number reflects a likely 2018 electorate, not national adults. Policies are presented in terms of their two-way support (that is, excluding respondents who did not register an opinion one way or the other).

For our first round of polling, we analyzed five policies:

Federal investment in housing: we asked respondents whether they would support a large scale investment in public housing. Forty-three percent of likely 2018 voters in support, 40 percent opposed.

Employee governance: we asked respondents if they would support establishing worker representation on companies’ board of directors (also known as “worker co-determination"). Fifty-two percent of likely 2018 voters in support, 23 percent opposed.

Family leave: we asked respondents if they would support paid leave for medical issues or a childbirth. Fifty-one percent of likely 2018 voters in support, 34 percent opposed.

Statehood: we asked respondents if they would support allowing DC, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands to hold a binding referendum for statehood. Fifty-one percent of likely 2018 voters in support, 34 percent opposed.

Free tuition: we asked respondents if they would support a policy granting free tuition to all students. Forty-six percent of likely 2018 voters in support, 40 percent opposed.

The candidates quoted here do not necessarily endorse the policies they do not directly speak to, nor is Civis Analytics endorsing the politicians and ideas presented here.