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“We are currently working on the legal review of those texts,” said a Mexican official Thursday, asking not to be named. “Little or no change is expected as a result of the negotiation between the U.S. and Canada.”

While it’s still hoped Canada will be in the text made public at month’s end, indications are that one with just Mexico will definitely be completed, said Chris Sands, head of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Photo by Carolyn Kaster/AP

Added Ujczo: “The U.S. will go full steam ahead with the U.S.-Mexico deal, no question about it. The text will be ready.”

Nothing prevents Canada from being added into the agreement after Oct. 1, but prolonging the process does carry risks. The steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the U.S. would likely remain in place, along with the threat of devastating automobile levies. And it’s possible the U.S. could give notice it was pulling out of NAFTA at the same time it released wording of the Mexico deal, said Sands.

What’s more, as the American trade war with China heats up, attention to the Canadian question by the White House and Congress may well wane, he said.

The Mexico-U.S. agreement includes some contentious elements, like extending patent protection for certain drugs and raising the value of goods that individuals can import duty free, but analysts say Canada is likely to endorse those provisions by next week.

That leaves a few, hard-fought bilateral issues between the States and Canada, including the dairy question and the U.S. demand to kill Chapter 19, the NAFTA system for resolving disputes over anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties.