Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Diego Padres. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Top Prospects Team Lists 2020 2019 AL BAL CHW HOU BOS CLE LAA NYY DET OAK TBR KCR SEA TOR MIN TEX NL ATL CHC ARI MIA CIN COL NYM MIL LAD PHI PIT SDP WSN STL SFG AL BAL CHW HOU BOS CLE LAA NYY DET OAK TBR KCR SEA TOR MIN TEX NL ATL CHC ARI MIA CIN COL NYM MIL LAD PHI PIT SDP WSN STL SFG

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C

1B

2B

SS

3B

OF

LF

CF

RF

LHP

RHP

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Crafty Arms Too Young To Drink

Efraín Contreras, RHP

Luarbert Arias, RHP

Miguel Rondon, RHP

Omar Cruz, LHP

Frank Lopez, RHP

Luis Gutierrez, LHP

Ramon Perez, LHP

Bodi Rascon, LHP

Gabriel Morales, LHP

Manny Guzman, LHP

If you’re thinking, “Gee, that’s a lot of guys in this one, very specific category,” that’s because this is the largest honorable mention subgroup I’ve ever put together. So many of the pitchers San Diego signed in the 2017 and 2018 classes are here, and they all typically have pretty average stuff except for a good changeup, with most of them having very impressive command for how young they are. Contreras has braces on in his 2019 roster photo but still posted a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in full-season ball at age 19 last year. He and Arias, also 19, are squat, projectionless, sit 90-92, have potential plus changeups, and throw a ton of strikes. Rondon, also 19, is the really athletic, skinnier, three-pitch version. He has one of the better breaking balls in the group. Cruz, 20, is the first name on this list who’s over 5-foot-11. He works glove side with tough angle on righties at 90-92, has a loopy curveball that has worked to this point, and has 135 strikeouts in 98 career innings largely because of his command. Frank Lopez was up to 96 as a 17-year-old but his velo has slowly dipped into the low-90s since then and he’s been hurt some. He too has a chance for a plus changeup. Luis Gutierrez is just 17; he was a 2019 July 2 signee. Like Cruz, he’s a lower slot lefty with a good breaking ball, but he needs to add velo. The lefties are all sinker-oriented.

Several Hitters to Monitor

Michael Gettys, CF

Agustin Ruiz, LF

Brandon Valenzuela, C

Jonny Homza, C/3B

Gettys’ tools are such that he might be Drew Stubbs, with plus power, a 70 arm and speed, but a hit tool that might not be playable in any capacity. Ruiz is well-built and has a bunch of average and slightly below tools that might grow enough for him to be something in the long haul. Valenzuela is similar, except at catcher. Homza is a tough-nosed backstop who can also play some infield and might end up with a 50 bat, which makes him an interesting 26th man candidate.

Relievers

Carlos Belen, RHP

Dauris Valdez, RHP

Jake Sims, RHP

Matt Brash, RHP

Belen (up to 98), Valdez (100), Sims (97), and Brash (95) all throw hard. Belen is a converted third baseman whose secondary stuff might yet improve since he’s only been pitching since 2018. Valdez is in Mauricio Cabrera-land for me because of the strike-throwing. Sims and Brash have vertical action breaking balls that could play in relief and their deliveries are deceptive in part because of their violence.

System Overview

There’s not much to say here that I haven’t already said at some point during the Padres rebuild, so I’ll quickly summarize. The Padres draft a lot of high school players, many of whom may have been under-scouted compared to prospects who have been on the radar since they were freshman or sophomores, with somewhat mixed results. They’ve also taken some bold, injury-related risks in the draft room (Cal Quantrill, Mason Thompson) and are apt to take underslot players they like and then spend more later in the draft.

Most of this system was signed out of Latin America, and the long-term members of the org are from two huge classes of $300,000 signees the Padres inked during their penalty box stretch after 2016. Most of these are the crafty pitchability arms in the Others of Note section, who are just so numerous that some of them will probably work out.

The prospect consolidation has begun as the team chases the Dodgers, which means players with ETAs in 2021 are the ones the club is more likely to trade to try to keep pressure off the 40-man if they can.