Historically, since the Affordable Care Act passed, the one thing in it that has never had majority support is the thing that makes it work—the individual mandate. That's what compels people to get and maintain insurance, and what makes sure there's a very large pool of people that includes young, healthy and inexpensive individuals to help balance costs for everyone else. That's the main thing that Republicans yelled about and the only thing the public wanted to be gone and replaced and over with.

But guess what's more unpopular than the individual mandate? The thing Republicans would put in its place with Trumpcare. A bunch of public policy experts at Wesleyan University conducted a survey of 1,588 Americans, nationwide. Here's what they found out about Trumpcare.

By March 2017, people were well aware that the ACA requires nearly all Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty to the government. In the group that got only basic information about the ACA, nearly three in four correctly identified the tax penalty as part of the ACA. That’s more than knew about any other components, including subsidies for low-income citizens. But only 28 percent knew that the AHCA would penalize enrollment gaps. That’s fewer than knew either that the ACHA would repeal the subsidies; how the law would treat preexisting conditions; or that young adults under 26 could stay on their parents’ insurance. Emphasizing the ACA tax penalty has no effect on whether respondents favor the ACA, even when we adjust for key demographics like partisanship and voting for Trump. But telling respondents about the AHCA’s enrollment gap penalty makes them less enthusiastic about the GOP bill. When asked explicitly which they prefer, respondents told about both the ACA’s tax penalty and the AHCA’s enrollment gap penalty are more likely to prefer the ACA. […] As much as citizens don’t like the requirement to purchase insurance or pay a penalty to the government, our evidence suggests that they dislike the AHCA’s penalty paid to insurers even more.

What do people hate to pay money to more than the government? Their insurance company. The bill as whole was polling at 17 percent after its unveiling in March, whereas Obamacare is polling better than ever.

This is not going to go well for Mitch McConnell in the Senate.