We've seen the preliminaries and now we have a fair idea who's good and who's not. So the time has come to rate the contenders and in this case I mean winning contenders only. We haven't bothered with the bunch of guy who could probably get a respectable top 5-10 in the right circumstances but only the ones that under some set of circumstances. Granted when we reach the bottom category, named for the man who has come to symbolize the extreme case of winning Flanders by pure dumb luck (and grinta), we are talking about pretty remote chances. But chances none the less.

Lion of Flanders Class

Peter Sagan

The worst thing about trying to predict performances from erratic and unpredictable riders is that they are erratic and unpredictable. When it comes to Peter Sagan who has been a top top rider for years now you would think we'd have a reasonable idea of what to expect for a race like Flanders but there is just no way of knowing who shows up on Sunday. Will it be the stone cold killer who was invisible until he needed not to be on the Kemmelberg and then finished with surgical precision in Gent-Wevelgem or will it be Uncle Fluffy from E3 who was flamboyant and impressive until he suddenly collapsed like a house of cards? My guess from early in the season has been that it will be the former but I just don't know.

Could it be that the team support that we rarely see much off is the deciding factor? If they save him energy and he has the sense to use them he is sharp in the finale, if they fall through and he decides to freelance his way through the race he pays for it in the end of a long race?

Fabian Cancellara

In Cancellara's case we know that he can win both with and without much support. Except for an ill timed mechanical his prep has been perfect even without a win under his belt. Wevelgem is a race he is never going to be a favorite to win and still he was up there in contention, beaten in the end by a better sprinter. Any way you look at it that bodes well for the Ronde. Except of course you think history will repeat itself exactly and he ends up sprinting against a fresh Peter Sagan but I have a feeling we all know that a frisky Fabian might find a way to avoid that kind of situation too on a course that favors him a lot more. The old geezer has one last shot at this, does anyone really think he isn't going to to take it?

Iron Briek Class

Greg van Avermaet

First off in the "I was puking from all ends but hopefully I'm better now"-club is old Greg, the most improved rider of the year. At least he was until he had to sit out E3 with illness. If fit he suddenly has the power to stay with the best and a sprint to match Sagan. Most importantly though he seems to be a more confident GVA who is still an aggressive attacking rider but one who has the patience to go on the attack later and at more dangerous stages in the races. His gamble in Nokere Koerse really deserved a better fate but it showed the new and improved BMC captain. Last year he was a "likely podium but never a winner" to me, this year he is quite obviously a likely winner.

Alexander Kristoff

Member number two of the recovering sicko club i last years winner and quite the opposite of GVA he really hasn't been looking improved from last year. Granted that would have been near impossible given how he raced last spring but still his record so far has been less than convincing. It's not that anyone doubts he is fast or strong but the deal with Kristoff has always been a fine balance of if he gets over the hills. A prime edition like we saw last year is almost unshakable but so far it more looks like we're seeing a Kristoff at 2013-14 powerlevels and that guy is going to struggle to win on Sunday, maybe he'll have more luck in Paris-Roubaix frankly. If he has a good prep-week and comes good by this weekend though the competition will have to work furiously to avoid a repeat performance from 2015.

Sep Vanmarcke

It looks like we're seeing a somewhat changed Sep this year. It's still a powerful rider but he looks a more waiting and perhaps a less confident rider? Or maybe less confident is the wrong wording "less eager to show his power" is perhaps a better description. Sep has so far been waiting much more for the races to come to him than before when he was boorishly committed to hammering the opposition into submission sooner rather than later, usually ending in some untimely flat or incident before anything came of all his spent energy.

This years Sep looks perhaps a level below the very best power wise so far but he is very much there or thereabouts. If all the pieces fall in place for him he could be the winner, especially since he has a better than expected sprint if he comes to Oudenaarde reasonably fresh.

Michal Kwiatkowski

You win E3 as convincingly as Kwiat did, you go on the list it's as simple as that.Granted winning E3 is no guarantee for a result a week later but the ease he sat with the best combined with the power of his attack and the short work he made of Sagan points to a guy who found the perfect shape at just the right time. The new Sky recruit hasn't really impressed anywhere this year until he lined up in Harelbeke and suddenly everything clicked and we were seeing the old World Champ back to his best. And that guy is fully capable of winning De Ronde.

Keizer Rik Class

Ian Stannard

I know we're supposed to be feeling the love for Stannard but I just don't really get that golden vibe. The guy is strong, a bit of a low profile version of Sep Vanmarcke without the weight of a nations expectations on his shoulders, but I just can't see to many likely scenarios where he can win Flanders on this course. He is too high profile to be allowed to sneak off in some group that gets to much of a leash and if he gets in a group that manages to ride off on pure power I just don't see he ever gets to pull off a repeat performance of his latest Omloop win. Add in a little illness in the last few days and you have another "better luck in Roubaix"-guy.

Geraint Thomas

You're going to make me write about this bum again aren't you? Well I'm not doing it. He could win. He won't, because he's a dummy. And that's all I have to say about that. Tour de France?.............psssshhh

Niki Terpstra

Niki the Workhorse seems to be the theme this season and if that continues this is a waste of writing. But there has to come a point where either Etixx luck or their gameplan changes. If it does and Niki is released to do what he has done so well for years then of course he is a threat. In fact, starting to throw Terpstra into the action earlier before they are forced into using him as a defensive workhorse may just be the ticket to dig themselves out of the hole they're in. He's done a lot of work for nought but he has still looked strong at critical points in the races. If he saved a little and allowed to play an offensive role they may get more value out of him.

Tom Boonen

Here's another dilemma. Clearly Boonen isn't in bad shape, he is right up there at the important points in the races. Problem is he isn't matching the 3-4 best up the bergs at the decisive moments and that automatically puts him out of contention in Flanders. On the old course I wouldn't have dismissed him because there was alway a good chance race-smarts might overcome pure watts but we don't really see that happening now. Terpstra and Kristoff sliding of the front last year was as close as we've come to a tactical victory in Oudenaarde and even that was a case of the strongest riders getting away and staying away. My guess is we see Boonen make a valiant and ultimately fruitless attempt on Koppenberg or Taaienberg and the big boys fly past him when they decide to go full gas last time on the Kwaremont.

Zdenek Stybar

The international sign for "get your ass in gear" in cycling is when Patrick Lefevere goes in the press and says "he has to think about if he really has what it takes to be the captain right now". For Stybar it has been a disappointing trajectory from world beater in the making by Strade Bianche to the guy who comes up ever so short when the shit hits the fan in the Flanders races. His biggest objectives are still ahead of course but it will take a heck of an improvement to make him a winner because this guy isn't getting anything for free from the other bigs. And now he is feeling the heat that comes with carrying the weight of expectations on this team too. It could either set him on fire or burn him up.

Peter van Petegem Class

Tiesj Benoot

Is it Ok for me to squeal with enthusiastic anticipation now? Or should I wait until Saturday night? Oh the hell with it, he's going to with the whole damn thing isn't he?

Jurgen Roelandts

How someone goes from so impressive on Taaienberg to just disappearing on the Paterberg in E3 I do not know but for Roelandts it was a worrying sign. The Taaienberg / Sanremo Roelandts was looking like a very hot candidate for Flanders but if that backproblem that he talked of after the race wasn't a very temporary thing then Lotto will be severely diminished. Jens Debusschere has had to give up Flanders and Roubaix due to injuries to his vertebrae from his crash last weekend and if Roelandts isn't 100% then they are left with "just" Tiesj Benoot. A fresh Roelandts on the same kind of day he was at in Sanremo would be a sight to see though on Sunday. He may be one of the few capable of really throwing a spanner in the works for guys like Cancellara.

Luke Rowe

You remember Luke Rowe right? He's the one on Sky actually riding classics, and doing it well, when the rest of the gang is sitting on Teide leafing through their Miguel Indurain biographies and sucking in their guts in front of the mirror and wondering if they could pull off that sweet sideburns-look that Sir Bradley Wiggins always looked so cool in? All of that will probably matter nought once the race is on and the team royalty demand service and plenty of water bottles until they unexpectedly fall over on some straight, wide road 60 km from the finish. Ah well, better luck in Roubaix.

Lars Boom

In our continuing effort to overrate Lars Boom I here present him in a higher category of favorites than any kind of rational thought would merit. But he has been stealthily solid so far and I'd hate to break with a fine tradition. Anyways we can talk about Boom for real next week when there's a race he has a realistic chance to actually win.

Jacky Durand Class

Edvald Boasson Hagen

Eddy Boss is basically just a younger version of Tom Boonen in this write-up. Strong but just not quite strong enough to go with the best when it matters most. Otherwise he has been racing a tremendous string of races with very few wrong moves. To win though it's going to take as brave a gamble as he took coming off the Poggio in Sanremo. And he needs to be able to finish it off this time too.

Jasper Stuyven

This is the guy who has been looking at videos of Stijn Devolder winning RvV ever since the day after his Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, because that is the only way he wins this race. Except in his case it will likely have to be covering an early move, not striking out on his own, I'm pretty sure King Fabian will have none of that. Also they took the Eikenmolen out of the course years ago.

Filippo Pozzato

Token mention.

Edward Theuns

Pretty much the same story as for Stuyven except Stuyven has been looking better so far this year. In a group at the end though you'd probably want to have your money on Theuns.

Stijn Vandenbergh

I wish Stijn was higher on the list but in seriousness it is more of a courtesy listing him at this point. I honestly don't know if his qualities have been a bit wasted on Etixx or if he has gotten more mileage out of a limited skillset than he would have on other teams? It may be a little of both. At this point he has really worked up to a big win but i am getting increasingly skeptical if it will ever happen. On Sunday it would have t be as part of some bigger tactical play by Etixx and I don't know if they have it in them at this point.