Bill Nelson, lacking the governor’s bully pulpit and the independently wealthy Rick Scott’s campaign money and private plane, initially took a lower-profile approach to the Puerto Rico's difficulties and was slower to ramp up Spanish-language outreach. | AP Photo Nelson's narrow lead with Florida Latinos worries Democrats

Sen. Bill Nelson holds a narrow 44-41 percent lead over Gov. Rick Scott among Latino voters in Florida’s Senate race, according to a new poll that’s raising fresh concerns among Democrats that the incumbent is in a dicey position with a core group of voters he needs to carry by bigger margins.

The poll of 400 Florida Hispanics, commissioned by a coalition of Democratic-leaning Latino outreach groups, showed that Scott topped Nelson among Cuban-American voters, who tend to vote Republican, by 24 percentage points. But Nelson’s advantage over Scott among Puerto Ricans, who tend to vote Democrat, was smaller: 7 points.


For Democrats, those numbers are a problem because a Republican who wins as much of the Hispanic vote as Scott is taking usually wins statewide in Florida. Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the survey by 40-33 percent.

Still, Democrats say, there’s time. But it’s running out.

“Nelson has a lot of work to do,” said Mayra Macias, political director for the group Latino Victory Fund, which helped fund the survey along with Alianza for Progress and Power 4 Puerto Rico. The poll was first reported by the Orlando Sentinel.

“But the good news is that Latino voters are more motivated now," Macias said. "There’s this metaphor of the Latino voter in Florida as the sleeping giant. The numbers are there. What has been the missing piece is motivation. There seems to be a very, very high level of motivation."

According to the poll, 78 percent said the "current situation in the U.S. motivating them to vote," 65 percent said they're more likely to register others to vote, 45 percent said they'll attend political functions, and 44 percent said they would get involved more in political campaigns.

The error margin for the survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group between July 30 and Aug. 5, is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Focus groups and other surveys show Scott might have a major weakness with non-Cuban Hispanic voters, who tend to vote Democrat: President Donald Trump.

By 58-28 percent, Hispanic voters in the new survey said Trump hasn’t done enough to help welcome Puerto Ricans to Florida after Hurricane Maria. The feeling is particularly acute among Puerto Rican voters in Florida, but Cuban-Americans also share the sentiment.

When it comes to Scott, 41 percent of respondents said he has done enough to welcome Puerto Ricans to the state, compared to 33 percent who say Nelson had done enough.

Scott made inroads with the Boricua community soon after Hurricane Maria devastated the island. He opened welcome centers in Florida for evacuees, visited them frequently, stood by Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló, advertised in Spanish and snared the endorsement of the island’s secretary of state and its nonvoting member of Congress.

Nelson, lacking the governor’s bully pulpit and the independently wealthy Scott’s campaign money and private plane, initially took a lower-profile approach to the island's difficulties and was slower to ramp up Spanish-language outreach. He has been endorsed by Rosselló’s father, Pedro Rosselló, a former governor of the island. And Nelson last week went on a Spanish-language media blitz.

After being outspent nearly 3-1 by the better-funded Scott, Nelson’s campaign plans to begin campaigning in earnest in two weeks. At that point, Democrats hope, he’ll start to solidify his base — both with Latinos and Democrats in general — and make more of a play with independent voters.

Overall, Scott is leading Nelson in recent polls.

Regarding Florida Hispanics, the new polls shows they say their top issue is jobs (83 percent), followed by expanding health care coverage (76 percent), addressing the issue of migrant family separation (72 percent) and then rebuilding Puerto Rico (64 percent).

Except for the issue of jobs — a top issue for Scott since his 2010 election as governor — most of those top concerns of Latinos play more in Democrats’ favor because of Republican resistance to expanding Medicaid and the Trump administration’s role in separating immigrant families at the border while being blamed for not doing enough to get Puerto Rico reconstructed.

Even among Cuban-Americans, rebuilding Puerto Rico is an important issue for 58 percent of those surveyed.

Cuban-Americans are among the most-reliable voters in Florida midterm elections and experts estimate they could account for a third of all registered Hispanic voters in the state, where 16 percent of those registered to vote identify as Latino. Another third might be of Puerto Rican descent.

More than 1 million Puerto Ricans are believed to live in Florida and they likely outnumber Cuban-Americans. But though they typically vote Democrat, Boricua voters and non-Cuban Hispanics tend to have relatively poor turnout rates.

Without outsized non-Cuban Hispanic support, Nelson has a slim chance of winning, said José Dante Parra, CEO of the Hispanic outreach group Prospero Latino.

“He needs to be winning by double digits. He needs to run up the score with his base,” Parra said. “But Scott is leading but by razor-thin margins. So once Nelson starts advertising, it should change. And what we all need to see is if Scott has hit his ceiling already."