​On Friday night, Donald Trump once again seized the news cycle by the scruff of the neck when it emerged that he'd spoken on the phone to the president of Taiwan — the first time (as far as we know) a US President has done so since 1979.

The revelation sent Twitter and reporters into a tizzy — and for good reason. Here's why Trump's call is a big deal (and not in a good way).

This Is A Huge Departure From US Policy, And One That Will Anger China

The call could spark the first major foreign policy crisis for the incoming Trump administration with China, which will see the call as suggestive of an epochal change in U.S. policy toward Taiwan. The government of China had not reacted to the call as of this writing.

[The Diplomat]





In the words of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang:

The Taiwan Question concerns China's core interests and remains the most important and sensitive issue in China-US relations.

[Ministry of Foreign Affairs, PRC]





It's Not Entirely Clear Who Arranged The Call

A few after after the news broke, Trump tweeted that Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen initiated the call:

The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency. Thank you! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 3, 2016

However, the Taipei Times reports that Trump's team initiated the contact:

Trump reportedly agreed to the call, which was arranged by his Taiwan-friendly campaign staff after his aides briefed him on issues regarding Taiwan and the situation in the Taiwan Strait, sources said.

[Taipei Times]





Why Does The US Currently Sell Weapons To Taiwan, If Contact Is A No-No?

In a tweet that followed his first tweet on the matter, Trump raised the fact that the US sells weapons to Taiwan — most recently, a $1.83 billion sale was approved in 2015 over Chinese protestations.

Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 3, 2016

The US has been selling weapons to the Taiwanese for decades, as it committed to do under Reagan:

The Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances made to Taiwan in 1982 by Ronald Reagan mandate, among other things, that the U.S. will never set a date for ending U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and will never consult China in advance before selling arms to Taiwan. The law also says the U.S. will provide Taiwan arms "to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability."

[Bloomberg]





Ever since Nixon made his overtures to China in the early 1970s, the U.S. has played a balancing act, trying to keep its defense commitments to Taiwan while not scuttling U.S.-China relations. History is full of examples of this tight-rope walk. The announcement of the normalization of U.S.-PRC relations in 1979 was closely followed by the passage of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which promised (among other things) "to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character."

[The Diplomat]

The U.S. maintains a strong "unofficial" relationship with Taiwan, including providing it with "defensive" weapons, while also refusing to recognize its independence and pressuring Taiwanese leaders not to upset a fragile but functional status quo. It's the sort of fiction that is obvious to all involved, but on which diplomacy is built: All parties agree to believe in the fiction for the sake of getting along.

[The Atlantic]

And while China is openly unhappy with the sales, it has little leverage to stop them:

Beijing has often used its economic clout to help defend what it sees as key national interests, whether by imposing punitive measures or offering incentives. It first threatened sanctions against U.S. companies selling arms to Taiwan nearly six years ago. But Beijing has limited means for swaying U.S. defense suppliers, which are barred from military sales to China.

[Wall Street Journal]

But Trump's Phone Call Is A New Provocation

The arms sales, while unwelcome to China, have been happening for a while now. Trump's open communication with the Taiwanese leader, however, is new:

The danger, [Barry Pavel, director of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council] said, is that "the Chinese are going to think it was deliberate and that this is the beginning of a hostile policy by the Trump administration, upending the basic geometry of diplomatic relations between the US and China since 1979."

[CNN]





One That Unbalances A Highly Tense Situation

The delicate relationship between Taiwan and China is one of the world's biggest military flashpoints. It is explicit Chinese policy that any declaration of independence from Taiwan would trigger an automatic invasion, and China is believed to, at all times, have thousands of missiles pointed at its small island neighbor.

[Quartz]

It Remains Unclear What Trump Intended, But There's Reason To Think It Was A Purposeful Provocation

Trump has also relied on the counsel of some policy advisers, such as Peter Navarro, who have expressed pro-Taiwan views.

[The Hill]

Trump has said little about Taiwan, but has surrounded himself with advocates of a tilt toward away from Beijing, including former U.N. ambassador John Bolton, who visited Trump Tower on Friday for undisclosed reasons. In January, Bolton, who has been considered for top posts in a Trump administration, argued for "playing the Taiwan card" to pressure mainland China to back off its increasingly aggressive moves in the Pacific region.

[Politico]

It remains to be seen how the situation will play out, but China has already contacted the White House, while the White House reiterated its commitment to China's "one China" policy. Update: In a statement, China's Foreign Minister said he hopes the call won't change the US' commitment to the one China policy.

*Also Of Note: Trump Appears To Be Pursuing A Business Development In Taiwan

There's no way to say if Trump's position towards Taiwan and the interests of his business are related, but it's worth noting that such interests do exist:

The mayor of Taoyuan confirmed rumors on Wednesday that US president-elect Donald Trump was considering constructing a series of luxury hotels and resorts in the northwest Taiwanese city. A representative from the Trump Organization paid a visit to Taoyuan in September, expressing interest in the city's Aerotropolis, a large-scale urban development project aimed at capitalizing on Taoyuan's status as a transport hub for East Asia, Taiwan News reports. With the review process for the Aerotropolis still underway, Taoyuan's mayor referred to the subject of the meeting as mere investment speculation.

[Shanghaiist]









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