Seattle Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner is returning after missing five games with a torn toe ligament. Credit: Mark Humphrey

WHAT'S TRENDING

Upsets continue to be the theme this season and the last three weeks have provided irrational results that must be driving bettors crazy. Start with Week 9 when St. Louis won at San Francisco as a 101/2-point underdog. A nice upset, but not completely preposterous. But then go to Week 10. Cleveland wins at Cincinnati as a 61/2-point underdog, the 49ers win at New Orleans as 6-point underdogs and the Jets beat the Steelers as 4 1/2-point underdogs. Now go one week further. The Texans win at Cleveland as 41/2-point underdogs, the Rams beat the Broncos as 8-point underdogs, the Bengals win at New Orleans as 81/2-point underdogs and the Buccaneers win at Washington as 61/2-point underdogs. Go figure how the Bengals can get blown out at home against Cleveland and win at New Orleans, and the Browns can follow up their victory in Cincinnati by losing at home to Houston. You get the idea. Games like those fit a trend in which road underdogs are covering at almost a 50% rate. Based on an accounting of against-the-spread records this season, road dogs are 54-55-2 this season, a covering percentage of 49.5. That's up significantly from 2013, when the final percentage for road dogs was 45.3. With all that in mind, watch out for Tampa Bay, Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Arizona this week. They might just surprise you.

ON DECK

The Buffalo Bills have escaped their storm-ravaged city and are ready to play a football game — in Detroit. The Bills-Jets game scheduled for Sunday in Buffalo was moved to Ford Field on Monday night. It has been a crazy week for the Bills' players, most of whom were stranded in their homes like the rest of the city after over 7 feet of lake-effect snow fell in a three-day period. Most of the coaches made it to the team's facility on Monday and wound up being stranded there. On Friday, players made their way to Ralph Wilson Stadium — some via snowmobile — some able to drive because their neighborhoods weren't hit as hard. From there they were bused to the airport and flown to Detroit on a charter flight. They had a meal at their hotel, took part in meetings and then held a 90-minute practice at 7:30 p.m. It was the first time they had practiced since Tuesday, because they played on Thursday night in Week 11 and were given the weekend off. They practiced again Saturday afternoon and will have a walk-through Monday morning. In the meantime, the training staff will try to make up for the days the players went without rehab and treatment. Then it's play ball Monday night.

NORTHERN EXPOSURE

The Lions are coming off a tough loss to Arizona last week and their reward for not getting blown out is a trip to the opposite coast to face the New England Patriots. This is a major gut check for a team that has proved mentally tougher than past teams under former coach Jim Schwartz. They have rallied when down, hung in when barely ahead and survived injuries to star players Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush. Asking them to beat the Patriots (8-2) on the road is a lot, but unless the Packers lose to the Vikings, the Lions need to win in order to maintain their edge in the division. The Packers face the Patriots at home next week, but they better not be looking too far ahead because they haven't been a very good road team this year and could suffer a loss they'll really regret later in the season. The Vikings are coming off a bad loss at Chicago, but their defense is solid and QB Teddy Bridgewater has generally avoided really bad mistakes. The Bears get to face their former coach Lovie Smith, who some of the players probably wish still was their coach. Chicago is a prime candidate for an upset loss to the Buccaneers, especially given Smith knows every weakness of QB Jay Cutler.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

When: 3:05 p.m. Sunday

Injury report: Cardinals — DT Ed Stinson (toe) is out; WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee) is questionable. Seahawks — CB Marcus Burley (hamstring), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (shoulder) and C Max Unger (knee, ankle) are out; DE Demarcus Dobbs (knee) is doubtful; G James Carpenter (ankle) is questionable.

Player to watch: LB Bobby Wagner has missed five straight games with a torn toe ligament, and the Seahawks defense hasn't been the same since he went out. Wagner was averaging 10 tackles a game and his return should be a huge boost for the team.

Recent history: The Cardinals have won three of the last five and last year broke the Seahawks' 15-game regular-season home winning streak with a Week 17 victory. Only one other team has beaten the Seahawks at home since the start of the 2012 season.

Key statistic: Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch has 14 touchdowns in his last eight home games.

Bottom line: The Cardinals would really love to be at full strength so they can measure themselves against the Super Bowl champs at CenturyLink. But Drew Stanton replaces Carson Palmer at quarterback and Fitzgerald is a major question mark with his balky knee. Stanton had some difficulty against Detroit last weekend and he'll be facing an equally difficult challenge with the Seahawks defense. Fitzgerald has not practiced all week, but he has not been ruled out. The Seahawks have been vulnerable down the middle of the field, particularly against pass-catching tight ends. This is a huge game for Seattle because they are battling a number of teams for a wild-card spot, including division foe San Francisco, which has an identical 6-4 record. Lynch has been on a tear lately, but the Cardinals defense ranks third against the run, allowing just 80.5 per game. That means there will be a lot of pressure on QB Russell Wilson to put up some bigger numbers than he has (13 passing touchdowns this season). It would help if he had a receiver like Percy Harvin.

NFL BY THE NUMBERS

PACKERS

1,597 Receiving yards WR Jordy Nelson is on pace for this season, which would break Robert Brooks' franchise mark of 1,497 set in 1995.

3 Onside kicks Mason Crosby has attempted this season, all of them unsuccessful.

142 Passes the offense has attempted on first and 10 this season, fourth most of any team in the NFL.

0 Coverage penalties CB Sam Shields has this season.

10 Special teams tackles S Sean Richardson has this season, tied for third in the NFL.

NFC NORTH

10 First-quarter points the Minnesota Vikings have allowed over the last five games.

9 Games this season in which the Vikings' offense has scored one or fewer passing touchdowns.

13 Passing touchdowns Detroit Lions QB Matthews Stafford has thrown this season, 16th most in the NFL.

5 Games in which Chicago Bears QB Jay Cutler has thrown multiple interceptions this season.

10 Unnecessary roughness penalties the Bears have committed this season, most in the NFL.

NFL

5 Longest active losing streak in the NFL (Carolina, New York Giants) after the Oakland Raiders won their first game Thursday night.

1 Teams who have failed to win a home game this season (Tampa Bay).

5-12 The NFC South's record against NFC teams outside its division.

2 Kickers who have not missed a field-goal attempt this season (Giants' Josh Brown and Colts' Adam Vinatieri).

0 Players, before Houston's J.J. Watt did it last Sunday, who have registered a sack, forced fumble, fumble recovery and touchdown reception in the same game since sacks became an official statistic in 1982.