NEW DELHI: India’s summer-sown foodgrain production is likely to fall nearly 3 per cent , dashing hopes of higher farm income, because of erratic rainfall and farmers shifting to other remunerative crops.Output of kharif, or summer-sown crops, is expected to fall to 134.67 million tonnes from the record 138.52 million tonnes last year, a fall of 2.8 per cent , according to the government’s first formal estimate of the harvest. It makes four ‘advance estimates’ in the course of the year.This is expected to hit rural incomes in some areas, although the government said the harvest of 134.67 million tonnes, estimated with the help of inputs from states and other sources, would still be 5 per cent higher than the five-year average of 128.24 million tonnes.“The country has adequate stock of foodgrain. So on food security front, there is nothing to worry about. But farmers in rain-fed areas may be hard-hit and their income might go down if prices don’t recover,” said former agriculture secretary Siraj Hussain.He said lower production may hit rural economy and buying capacity of farmers. “The government has to ensure farmer gets minimum support price for pulses, soyabean and cotton . Also, a stable trading regime needs to be ensured for commodity prices to recover.”Experts said food prices are likely to remain steady. This year’s monsoon is about 5 per cent below average, but some parts of the country were flooded while others were relatively dry, hurting kharif output.However, the recent surge in rainfall will help the winter-sown, or rabi, crop because of good soil moisture and more water in reservoirs.Production of rice, the main kharif crop, is estimated to be 94.48 million tonnes, or 1.98 per cent less than the previous year. There was a small drop in paddy acreage, to 37.68 million hectares from 38.18 million hectares a year earlier, on account of deficient rains in a number of districts in Chhattisgarh , Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.“Rice is one commodity in which we have been self-sufficient since 1991-92,” grain analyst Tejinder Narang said. “There are unlikely to be a spike in prices. In winter, planting of rice will take place in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana which can make up the deficit.”Output of kharif pulses such as tur, moong and urad is estimated at 8.71million tonnes against 9.42 million tonnes last year. The ministry cited a shift by farmers to more remunerative crops like sugarcane and cotton for this 7.5 per cent fall in production.Lokesh Goenka, managing director of U Goenka Sons that trades in agriculture commodities, said this would have no major impact on prices in the short run. Area under pulses this season was 14.12 million hectares, 3.47 per cent less than last year.Production of oilseeds such as groundnut, soyabean and castorseed is estimated to decrease by 7.68 per cent over the previous year to 20.68 million tonnes, with farmers shifting to urad, sugarcane and cotton on expectation of higher profitability, the government said.Solvent Extractors' Association of India president Atul Chaturvedi said the Indian farmer was losing interest in the oilseed crop as it was not remunerative compared with others.Sugarcane production is estimated at 337.69 million tonnes, higher by 30.97 million tonnes than the last year. Area under sugarcane has increased by 9.4 per cent .According to Abinash Verma, director-general of Indian Sugar Mills Association, “The government’s estimates are very similar to ISMA’s which was 340-345 million tonnes. ”Despite an 18.68 per cent increase in area coverage this season, lower productivity of cotton has resulted in reduced estimated production of 32.27 million bales (of 170 kg each) as compared to 33.09 million bales in 2016-17, said the ministry.