Oil prices remain extremely prone to fluctuation. After surging by nearly 30% at the end of August, they have already shed half of their gains again since the beginning of September.



Brent fell by nearly 2% on Friday and has today lost another 1% - and this despite the fundamental picture having brightened of late. The IEA published its latest estimate on Friday and now expects an almost balanced supply/demand situation on the global oil market in 2016.



"For months, the expectation of a supply surplus that could last several years has been weighing on sentiment and prices on the oil market. Now, however, it is becoming apparent that not only the positive reaction on the demand side but also the negative reaction on the supply side has been underestimated. The IEA envisages US oil production declining by 400,000 barrels per day next year", says Commerzbank.