The data for the charts below are from the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review. I will update this post Friday, May 31st with March data for the USA and charts for several states when the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is published. All data is through February 2019 and is thousand barrels per day.

World C+C production was down only slightly in February, dropping only 87,000 barrels per day to 82,389,000 bpd.

It is my contention that World, less USA peaked in November 2016 with the 12 month average peaking in 2017.

A longer view of things. I am thinking of creating a “World less US Tight Oil” graph. Perhaps I will do that next month.

Non-OPEC production was down 36,000 bpd in February.

Non-OPEC less USA peaked in December 2015. The 12-month trailing average peaked one month later.

OPEC is not, and will not, be our savior from Peak oil. It is the Non-OPEC big three.

Canada was down only slightly in February according to the EIA. The Canadian Energy Board has them recovering in March but dropping big again in April.

Mexico recovered slightly in February.

China seems to be holding steady after the big decline in 2016.

Russian oil according to the Minister of Energy through April. I converted tonnes to barrels using 7.33 barrels per ton. The EIA data is through February.

All the USA data below is through March 2019.

The above chart is through March 2019. US production was up 241,000 barrels per day to 11,905,000 bpd. That was after February production was revised down by 19,000 bpd. Production is still below November and December however.

The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review had estimated March production to be 12,110,000 bpd. They were 205,000 bpd too high.

The lions share of the March increase came from the Gulf of Mexico which was up 191,000 barrels per day. USA less the GOM has been flat for 5 months. Does this mean anything?

Ahhh, there’s the problem. The Permian is petering out. Either that of Eagle Ford is pulling things down.

And the Bakken is not doing all that well either.

Alaska continues its slow decline. This is the first time in decades that they failed to reach half a million bpd this past winter. They got to 497,000 bpd in November.

The GOM seems to be doing okay however.

The State of Exploration 2019

Discovered volumes from high impact drilling fell overall by 50% in the 2014-2018 period compared to the previous five years. Only a little over half of the decline can be accounted for by a lower well count which fell by 28%; falling success rates and average discovery sizes accounted for the rest. Portfolio renewal has become a critical issue for the industry and larger companies have responded by trying harder to open new plays through increased frontier drilling.

So they drilled 28% fewer wells and found 50% less oil. No wonder they are drilling fewer wells, apparently they are just not that profitable.