“Our fate is tied directly to this simple sentence: ‘Do middle-class voters think the tax bill helps them or not?’ That’s the most important factor for the midterm—period. End of story,” a Republican strategist told David Drucker for Vanity Fair in January. “That’s the most important thing by a multiplier of 1 million.” Through a legislative agenda riddled with setbacks—a failed Obamacare repeal, a botched immigration deal, and a buried infrastructure package—Republicans have thus far felt secure in building a 2018 campaign around their only major legislative achievement to date: a massive tax cut for corporations and the wealthy. G.O.P. strategists doubled down on the tax-cut messaging at the end of January. “If we stay focused on selling the tax reform package, I think we’re going to hold the House and things are going to be O.K. for us,” predicted Republican Congressman Steve Stivers, who chairs the House’s campaign arm. But in the era of Donald Trump, in which the news cycle is repeatedly rocked by explosive allegations, ethical scandals, and policymaking decisions that threaten Trump’s own voter base, the G.O.P. is waking up to the fact that a decidedly unsexy bill from 2017 may not be enough to carry them through an already-contentious election cycle.

As this realization has dawned on the party, a series of high-profile Republicans have sounded the alarm, explicitly calling on their colleagues to do something—anything—to show the American people that they deserve to retain control of all branches of government. “We need some more wins,” said Republican Study Committee chairman Mark Walker told Axios, “first of all because that’s the right thing to do, second of all, because it’s politically expedient to our base to turn out in the fall, to make sure they see us being active and following through . . . in talking with leadership, they understand and seem to agree that we can’t just talk about Neil Gorsuch and tax cuts from here to November.”

“People want to know what you will do; they don’t want you constantly saying ‘You’re welcome’ for being functional long enough to pass tax reform,” a senior Republican aide added. “Especially when tax reform isn’t overwhelmingly popular.” The concern bridges the gap between moderate and conservative wings of the party, with Freedom Caucus chairman Mark Meadows saying that Republicans “need to complete one landmark piece of legislation signed into law each month between now and November,” and Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a moderate, noting that “The more we can get done, the better.”

Even Ted Cruz, who is facing down a well-funded Democratic opponent in Texas, agreed, though his suggestion that Republicans stick to a traditionally conservative agenda—“deliver on tax reform, on regulatory reform, on Obamacare, on judges, and we need to be focusing on jobs, jobs, jobs”—was in opposition to views of people like Marco Rubio, who told the Economist that focusing on the tax bill would hurt the party’s chances. “There is still a lot of thinking on the right that if big corporations are happy, they’re going to take the money they’re saving and reinvest it in American workers,” he said. “In fact they bought back shares, a few gave out bonuses; there’s no evidence whatsoever that the money’s been massively poured back into the American worker.”

In another era, perhaps Republicans would have been able to coast on tax cuts alone. But with Trump as president, the party has struggled to drive home its message, continually driven off course by the president’s off-the-cuff attacks. Late last week, Trump went on an unhinged rant on Fox & Friends that indirectly implicated him in his personal lawyer’s scheme to pay hush money to a porn star with whom he’d had an affair. And at a recent rally in Michigan, Trump hammered on the Democrats he wanted to kick out of office, hinting that he had blackmail on the Montana senator who uncovered allegations that knocked one of his Cabinet nominees out of contention. “I know things about [Sen. Jon] Tester that I could say, too,” Trump said at one point. “And if I said them, he’d never be elected again.” Even if Republicans do opt for a final legislative push, their chances for success are minuscule, thanks to the trifecta of a divided party, a slim Senate majority, and a bombastic and distractible president.

Backed into a corner, some Republican candidates have turned to attacks similar to those that won Trump the presidency. West Virginia primary candidate Don Blankenship has called Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell a “Swamp captain” and compared him to the Russians for “interfering with elections outside their jurisdictions,” and when it became clear that taxes were not enough to secure a comfortable lead, Pennsylvania candidate Rick Saccone pivoted to attack on sanctuary cities and immigrants. The results, for Saccone, were disappointing—he lost to Democrat Conor Lamb—and it’s unclear whether the same tactics will work for Blankenship, who is fading in the polls. Only Trump, it seems, can do Trump—a fact of little comfort to Republicans should their “one-trick pony” fail to perform.