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There is a real and pressing reason that Andrew Scheer is pushing on the idea that the party winning the most seats gets to form government. There is no way that I can see the Liberals winning the most seats in this election.

Looking at all the polling available, Scheer and his Conservatives will win the most seats come Monday.

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That includes the latest polling done for the Toronto Sun as part of the DART & Maru/Blue Voice Canada Poll.

Nationally, this poll puts the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals with a four-point lead. DART has Scheer’s party at 33% voter support compared to 29% for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and 21% for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. The Greens come in at 7% and the People’s Party at 2%.

“The polling suggests a minority parliament for either the Conservatives or the Liberals, dependent on two major factors — voter turnout and geography,” said pollster John Wright, a partner at DART.

That’s Wright’s official stance but allow me to differ from my friend and longtime collaborator on watching politics. Based on Wright’s own numbers and looking at geography and voter turnout, I’m willing to say we are looking at Prime Minister Andrew Scheer.