The U.S. has another looming immigration problem: Fewer foreign students are coming here for college — and even Texas isn’t immune.

President Donald Trump’s America-first policy appears to be prompting a sharp decline in international student applications and new enrollment, although other factors contributed, too.

In a fall 2017 survey, over 500 U.S. schools were asked about the declines. More than half of the colleges cited the social and political environment in the U.S., three times more than the year before. And nearly as many said that students were feeling unwelcome in America.

That was before the Trump administration's zero-tolerance approach at the border, which temporarily separated children from their parents and made international headlines. That also was before the Supreme Court upheld Trump’s travel ban on Tuesday.

"It's harder to get a visa, it's harder to stay, it's harder to switch visas, it's harder to bring a family member," said Jeanne Batalova, a senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington. "All these policies fit into a vision of America first, and that's leading to significantly fewer students from other countries."

From 2015 to 2017, the number of applicants for F-1 student visas fell 29 percent and the number of visas issued fell 39 percent. That translates into a decline of over 250,000 student visas, according to data from the U.S. Department of State.

Applications and visas are early indicators of demand for slots in U.S. schools. Enrollment by new foreign students declined almost 7 percent last fall after a 3.3 percent decline the year before, according to the survey by the Institute of International Education.

At public universities in Texas, there was a 5.3 percent decline in foreign students statewide over the last two years. In master's and doctoral programs, the number of foreign students fell by double digits, according to data from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board.

These foreign students often account for an outsized share of graduate researchers in science, technology, engineering and math. They’re also part of a valuable talent pipeline that employers rely on, especially in tech fields.

The trend line should raise alarms in the Dallas area, because the region has a tight labor market and a large foreign student population — 29,000 in 2016-17. It also has the state’s top two universities for these students.

Gold standard

The University of Texas at Dallas had over 9,300 foreign students, and the University of Texas at Arlington had almost 7,300, according to the institute.

At UTD, international student counts fell 2 percent from fall 2016 to fall 2017, according to data from the higher ed board. Applications from foreign students declined over 5 percent, according to UTD.

At UTA, international student counts fell almost 5 percent over the same period.

In Denton, the University of North Texas had a double-digit decline in foreign student applications last year but has seen improvement so far this year. Transfers from community colleges account for the uptick, driven by students from Vietnam and Nepal, said Pieter Vermeulen, director of international recruitment at UNT.

“We’re in a much better place than a year ago,” Vermeulen said, even if foreign students still feel a lot of uncertainty about the U.S.

“Some things haven’t changed: A degree from the U.S. is still the gold standard,” he said, in part because hiring managers in students’ home countries have often been educated in America.

Some of the decline in F-1 applications stems from spending cuts by governments in Saudi Arabia and Brazil, among others. The cost of college in the U.S. keeps rising, which is also a factor.

At the same time, other countries have become more aggressive in recruiting foreign students and making it easier for them to remain and build careers. That approach contrasts with the "slim chances" of getting another visa to stay in the U.S. or switch employers, according to a Migration Policy Institute report.

New Zealand, Australia and Canada use points systems that enable foreign students to work toward permanent residency, and that has helped Canada gain market share.

From 2015 to 2017, Canada increased its foreign student population 41 percent, ending the year with nearly half a million foreign students, according to a published report.

"Our colleagues in Canada are getting enormous numbers of applicants and enrollment, and we can see it," said Pia Wood, dean of international affairs at UNT.

U.S. still on top

There’s also been a dramatic decline in intensive English-language programs here, she said, and that’s another negative indicator.

“If they don’t come first to learn English, they probably will not be continuing on,” Wood said.

The U.S. remains the top destination for foreign students, hosting about 1.1 million in 2017, according to a report co-written by Batalova of the Migration Policy Institute. But our share of the market has dropped, and about 10,000 fewer new students enrolled in 2016-17.

Anti-immigration rhetoric from the president can be downplayed, she said, but that’s been buttressed by tougher policies and talk of curtailing other programs.

“When students ask, ‘How’s it gonna be for me?’ counselors can’t say, ‘Don’t worry; it’ll work out,’" Batalova said. "Because they don’t know themselves. And they see it going in only one direction.”

UNT officials want to see clearer guidelines on visas and other rules, including optional work programs for science and tech students. Until then, the decline in international applicants is likely to continue.

“It just makes sense for more and more students to look elsewhere,” said Batalova.