The poll precedes Monday's publication of Newspoll, which is forecast to be the 30th successive negative Newspoll for the Turnbull government. This will be significant because Mr Turnbull cited 30 negative Newspolls as one of the reasons for rolling Tony Abbott in September 2015.

As senior ministers circled wagons around the Prime Minister on Friday, the Fairfax/Ipsos poll showed 62 per cent of voters believed the Liberal party should stick with Mr Turnbull while 28 per cent said the party should change.

Among Coalition voters, support for Mr Turnbull is much stronger with 74 per cent opposed to removing him and just 21 per cent supporting change.

It shows Labor's primary vote to be 34 per cent, up 1 point since the last such poll in December, and the Coalition's primary up 2 points to 36 per cent. The Greens were on 12 per cent.

Despite pressure on Mr Turnbull and a poor start to the year caused by the Barnaby Joyce fiasco, the Prime Minister's approval rating has risen 5 points to 47 per cent since December and his disapproval rating has fallen 6 points to 43 per cent.

Labor leader Bill Shorten's approval rating has stayed steady at 38 per cent and his disapproval rating was relatively unchanged at 53 per cent.

Mr Turnbull also continues to best Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister, beating him in the latest poll by 52 per cent to 31 per cent, a 4-point increase since December.


The encouraging numbers for the Coalition will be sullied by an announcement on Friday by the Australian Electoral Commission. Following a draft redistribution of electorates in Victoria and the ACT, the Liberals have notionally lost four seats. In Victoria, the Liberal seats of Corangamite and Dunkley have been rendered Labor, while a new seat created in each of Victoria and the ACT are notionally Labor.

Nonetheless, the latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll, which suggests the contest could be as tight as 50-50, could take some of the heat off the prime minister, at least for now.

The last poll taken in December showed Labor leading the Coalition by 53 per cent to 47 per cent, based on how preferences flowed at the last election, and by 52 per cent to 48 per cent based on stated preferences.

On Thursday, in an interview with the The Australian Financial Review, Mr Turnbull urged his MPs to look beyond Monday in the belief he can beat Mr Shorten in a head-to-head contest over the economy.

He noted that other reasons he gave for rolling Mr Abbott had been fulfilled, including the restoration of business and consumer confidence, and getting the economy going.

On Friday, Cabinet minister Christopher Pyne downplayed the impending Newspoll, saying the public was not interested.


"Sure there might be a bad Newspoll on Monday, nobody cares," Mr Pyne told the Nine Network on Friday.

"We have a prime minister who will stay the prime minister and lead us to the next election and win."

Finance Minister Mathias Cormann noted how John Howard had come from further behind than the government is now to win elections, in 2001 and 2004.

In 2001, Mr Howard's government trailed Labor by 43 per cent to 57 per cent.

"The record shows that John Howard won the election later that year," he told Sky News.

On Thursday night, Mr Howard also suggested the Liberals pull their heads in and unite against Mr Shorten.

"I do not regard the next election as unwinnable, but there are a lot of our supporters who are nervous and they will be very unhappy and very angry with the parliamentary party if, through what they regard as their negligence, the opportunity of pinning the Labor Party on many policy failures is passed over," he said.