NBA commissioner Adam Silver has observed a sudden shift in market trends in college basketball just as a massive scandal involving agents, coaches and shoe companies has overwhelmed the sport.

The combination, he said Monday, will likely cause the end of the NBA’s so-called “one-and-done” rule, which would dramatically alter how young basketball talent is developed while changing how college teams are built.

Since 2005, a player has had to be at least 19 years old or one year past high school to be eligible for the NBA draft. The days of that rule appear numbered. The era of LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and, indeed, any number of unprepared busts going straight from the prom to the pros will likely return in some form.

“It’s clear a change will come,” Silver said Monday on ESPN’s “Mike & Mike” show.

This won’t eliminate cheating and corruption in college basketball. That’s been going on for generations and will continue as long as money and competitive humans are involved. And yes, losing out on the most talented of players is never a great thing. Getting to watch Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson and others is good for college basketball’s entertainment value.

Yet the current system is unsustainable, the proof being last month’s FBI-led investigation into bribery and fraud. Ten men were arrested, seven schools were swept up in at least potential NCAA violations and the career of Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino ended. The scandal promises to widen if any of those currently facing charges wants to start flipping for leniency.

The issue is simple. The market shows that top players who project to be high draft picks are worth a great deal more than the NCAA’s amateurism rules allow. Their future value is so great, parties interested in doing business with them, whether negotiating their contracts, managing their millions or employing them as endorsers, don’t feel they can wait until they turn pro to try to retain them as clients.

Yet, the NBA all but forces American players to enter into a system that is attempting to stop the wheels of capitalism. It doesn’t work and never will. The market will go wherever it needs.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver says the current college system needs to be overhauled. (AP) More

The NCAA needs a complete overhaul, but in the interim, having players who are worth the most bypass its artificial stopgap will at least take some heat out of the system. Adidas, which saw two executives arrested in the current scandal, is far less likely, for example, to offer a recruit $150,000 if he’s a projected second-round choice three years from now. (While it may still pay some recruits because it needs the schools it sponsors to win, the amount of money and players involved should decrease.)

Right now, even honest coaches don’t know where to turn in recruiting. You need top-20, likely one-and-done recruits to win big. Yet the vast majority, if not all of them, are being heavily pursued by agents and shoe companies. So even if you want to recruit them by the NCAA book, they may have taken payouts outside your knowledge. You either hope they didn’t, pray they don’t get caught, or you try to win with lesser talent.

Just letting them go pro would at least be more honest.

Silver, for his part, cited three things that have dramatically shifted. The scandals are one. “It’s clearly not working for the college game,” Silver said. Second is the increase in one-and-done players declaring for the draft. There were 16 last year. Silver said the average had been about eight per year.

And finally, it appears more top recruits don’t care about where they go to college and are just biding their time until draft night. This may be most concerning to the NBA because it impacts the league directly.

“What’s really interesting to me is the last two No. 1 picks in the NBA draft, Ben Simmons two years ago and Markelle Fultz last year, both played with teams that did not make the NCAA tournament [LSU and Washington, respectively],” Silver said. “And I don’t think enough people are talking about that. That seems to be a sea change.

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