Washington’s Warning

For much of US history the American people and our elected representatives have worked very hard to stay clear of wars. Wars, after all, are horrible. Our country was founded on religious freedom, a desire to escape tyranny and, in a way, mind our own business. In his farewell address in 1796, President George Washington warned a young nation about the perils of foreign entanglements.

Washington told his countrymen to avoid “permanent alliances” with other countries. Our destiny, he said, should not be entwined with the destiny of any other nation. Entanglement permits “our peace and prosperity” to be threaded into the ambitions, rivalries, interests or whims of other nations. It was sage advice, but for a simpler time. Today we are the world’s lone superpower and the world is not as simple as it once was.

The Middle East Mess Continues

In 2001 the U.S. ousted the Taliban, drove out al-Qaeda and embarked on building a democratic Afghanistan, a mission that continues to this day. In 2003, we fought in Iraq to plant democracy in the heart of an infertile Middle East. That fight continues. In 2011, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton ordered U.S. planes to attack Gadhafi’s forces in Libya. Libya’s civil war, the second since the attack, continues.

Despite US warnings, Turkey has started receiving parts for a Russian S-400 air and missile defense system.

In 2013, in an attempt to oust Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, Obama backed the rebels fighting to overthrow his government. In 2015, Obama sent U.S. forces to help the Saudi’s fight Houthi rebels’ in Yemen’s civil war. In early 2017, President Trump lobbed 59 Tomahawk missiles into Syria in response to a horrific chemical attack. Today, Assad’s brutality still reigns and Yemen’s bloody civil war continues.

The Collapse of NATO

In May 2017, Trump decided to exit Syria without leaving a void. That meant he needed skilled fighters we could arm and trust to remain free from al-Qaeda. His available choices were all flawed. Trump chose the Syrian Kurds. Our NATO ally, Turkey, hates the Kurds and considers them terrorists. Trump’s decision, which was later reversed but only after the damage was done, could lead to the collapse of NATO.

At the time and to ease Turkey’s fears, the Pentagon said, “We want to reassure the people and government of Turkey that the U.S. is committed to preventing additional security risks and protecting our NATO ally.” The Turks were not swayed but said little. In December 2018, Trump withdrew over 2,000 US troops from Syria to keep a campaign promise. Last week the Turks finally got back to us.

Last Train-Wreck to Turkey

Despite US warnings, Turkey has started receiving parts for a Russian S-400 air and missile defense system. That’s a big problem. The White House said, “The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform.” Turkey’s $800 million order for 100 F-35 fighter jets was canceled. Under U.S. law, we must now impose sanctions on Turkey. Sanctions. On Turkey! It gets worse.

The conflict is destabilizing NATO. Turkey fields the second-largest army in the alliance. The U.S. Incirlik air base in Turkey is highly strategic. The base serves as a deterrent to Russia and is ground zero during Middle East crises. Plans to remove Turkey from NATO have begun. The Trump administration, the Turks and NATO members are scrambling. Moscow, meanwhile, is smiling.

Risks Against Gains

The Mullahs in Tehran are unhappy. Trump’s “maximum pressure” sanctions are devastating their economy and more are coming. Tensions between Iran and the US are high. Iran shot down an expensive US drone, so the US nearly launched a retaliatory strike and then a US warship shot down an Iranian drone. Iran, unable to go tit-for-tat with US military might, seized two British oil tankers. It’s a mess.

The clock is ticking and the trajectory of events is not good. The path to compromise and calm is, at best, narrow and murky. Hawks prefer a military strike to diplomacy and endless searches for a moderate Iraq. Trump will weigh the risks against the gains but he understands that the world doesn’t function properly unless its lone superpower, the United States, defines and enforces the rules.