Big 12 picks: Iowa State should roll at Baylor, with a Florida bowl game potentially on the line

Iowa State continuing what could be a nationally unprecedented streak of ball security. Moving up in the bowl-game pecking order. David Montgomery zeroing in on 1,000 rushing yards. A longshot hopeful for the Big 12 Conference championship game.

If you think Matt Campbell’s guys are satisfied with already having qualified for their first bowl game since the 2012 Liberty Bowl loss against Tulsa, then think again.

Saturday’s 1:30 p.m. game at lowly-yet-improving Baylor is significant, too, and they know it.

“Once you come from losing, and you feel a certain way for so long — to be where we are now is an honor,” Montgomery said. “It’s a blessing.

“There’s so much more to come.”

Aside from personal glory, there’s that losing streak to consider — bouncing back from one-possession defeats against West Virginia and Oklahoma State to flip.

That’s where it starts for an Iowa State team that can win eight regular-season games for the first time since 2000. There’s an opportunity to win more Big 12 games than it loses, also for the first time since 2000.

Beat the one-win Bears in Waco, and then there’s that game at always-pesky Kansas State to play, but there’s more.

No one in FBS history has gone throughout out a season without losing a fumble. Through 10 games and 747 different fumbling opportunities — this bowl-bound team is still flawless,

Just two seasons ago, the Cyclones lost 12 fumbles, the fifth-highest total in the nation. This season, they’re the only team in the country that hasn’t lost a fumble.

So don’t subscribe to the notion that this isn’t a significant football game.

The Big Breakdown

Iowa State passing vs. Baylor

It doesn’t really matter who plays quarterback, be it Zeb Noland, Kyle Kempt, Joel Lanning, Montgomery, Deshaunte Jones or anyone else that’s thrown an Iowa State pass. Whoever starts (Noland?) has 6-5 Allen Lazard and 6-6 Hakeem Butler as targets.

He’s got a couple very talented guys in the slot — Trever Ryen and Jones. He’s got Marchie Murdock and Matthew Eaton, both of whom have had big moments this season. Manage the game. Don’t be fancy. Don’t over-think the play call. That’s all it’ll take. ADVANTAGE: Iowa State.

Iowa State rushing vs. Baylor

There’s no reason to think the Bears will suddenly get good against the rush, this team that’s allowing a league-worst 195.3 rushing yards during each Big 12 games. David Montgomery needs 64 more yards to crack 1,000, and he could get it in the first quarter. If he can get 164 rushing yards against a mediocre Texas Tech rush defense, you’d think he’d be in for a big day on Saturday. Montgomery has consecutive 100-yard games, he’s been durable, and he’s not about to just coast into a bowl game. “He’s still learning how to be a running back,” coach Matt Campbell said. “You’re asking a guy that was a high school quarterback for three years to play running back. You see him still maturing.” ADVANTAGE: Iowa State.

Baylor passing vs. Iowa State

This isn’t your typical Baylor passing attack. It’s averaging just shy of 294 yards a game. It’s striking fear into no one. No peeking: Who’s the Bears quarterback? Freshman Charlie Brewer set school records for completions (43) and attempts (63) during last Saturday’s 38-24 loss against Texas Tech. “This freshman has played outstanding football,” Campbell said. “You can tell why they’ve got a lot of belief in him. He’s really athletic, he’s a playmaker and he’s a guy that extends plays with his feet and can really throw the ball.” ADVANTAGE: Iowa State.

Baylor rushing vs. Iowa State

It’s a clean sweep for the Cyclones. The Bears don’t have a rusher among the Big 12’s top 10. They’re averaging less than 120 rushing yards a game, and they’re doing it on Saturday against an Iowa State defense that’s stopping the rush as well, if not better, than any Iowa State defense in recent memory. ADVANTAGE: Iowa State.

Score: Iowa State 37, Baylor 17

BIG 12 BREAKDOWN

Let’s peek ahead to Dec. 3, college football’s version of Selection Sunday.

Will a Big 12 team reach the College football playoffs? And what about the other New Year’s bowls?

With two games remaining in the regular season, it’s officially time to glance at bowl projections.

According to USA TODAY'S bowl projection, seven Big 12 teams will be eligible:

Oklahoma is in the College Football Playoffs; TCU plays in the Alamo; West Virginia is in the Liberty (Memphis); Oklahoma State is in the Camping World (Orlando); Texas is in the Texas Bowl (Houston); Iowa State is in the Cactus Bowl (Tempe); and Kansas State is in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

The Sports Illustrated web site has:

Oklahoma in the CFP; Oklahoma State in the Fiesta; West Virginia in the Liberty; TCU in the Alamo; Iowa State in the Camping World; Texas in the Texas Bowl; Kansas State in the Cactus; and Texas Tech in the Heart of Dallas.

As for cbssports.com:

Oklahoma in the CFP; TCU in the Fiesta; Oklahoma State in the Alamo; Texas in the Liberty; Iowa State in the Camping World; and West Virginia in the Texas Bowl.

THIS JUST IN: Don’t order airplane tickets yet. A lot can and will change by this time next week.

Our weekly Big 12 Predictions

No. 14 TCU (8-2, 5-2) at Texas Tech (5-5, 2-5)

Time, TV: 11 a.m., FS1

Vegas line: TCU by 7 ½ points

Prediction: This isn’t a run-of-the-mill game with next to nothing on the line. TCU still a solid bet to face Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game. Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury’s seat wouldn’t be as toasty if it reaches bowl qualification; his team is one win from that, so this is important for the Red Raiders. His team finishes the regular season at Texas, by the way. Can Tech’s offense put a dent in TCU’s very good defense? That’s the question of the day surrounding this game.

Score: TCU 27, Texas Tech 21

Texas (5-5, 4-3) at No. 25 West Virginia (7-3, 5-2)

Time, TV: 11 a.m., ESPN

Vegas line: West Virginia by 3 points

Prediction: The notion that West Virginia can still reach the Big 12 title game is about as far-fetched as someone other than Iowa State’s Joel Lanning winning the Hornung Award, an honor that goes to the nation’s best, most versatile player. The Mountaineers can at least stay in contention by beating Texas on Saturday, and then finishing the regular season with a win against Oklahoma. That’s a tough assignment, and it’s probably not happening. But anything, I guess, is possible.

Score: West Virginia 33, Texas 30

Kansas State (5-5, 3-4) at No. 13 Oklahoma State (8-2, 5-2)

Time, TV: 2:30 p.m., ESPN2

Vegas line: Oklahoma State by 20 ½

Prediction: Mason Rudolph came through when he had to last weekend against Iowa State’s good pass defense. He’ll thrive on Saturday against a Kansas State team that’s been shaky, at best, in the secondary. The Cowboys haven’t been eliminated from the Big 12 championship game conversation, so there’s that. Also reachable is a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game. Kansas State’s bowl eligibility is far from assured, considering the Cats close the regular season against Iowa State.

Score: Oklahoma State 37, Kansas State 31

No. 5 Oklahoma (9-1, 6-1) at Kansas (1-9, 0-7)

Time, TV: 2:30 p.m., ESPN

Vegas line: Oklahoma by 35 ½ points

Prediction: The Sooners are 5-0 after losing against Iowa State. They’re fresh from amassing 533 yards of offense against TCU’s once-solid defense — 200 rushing and 333 passing. Baker Mayfield still must impress Heisman Trophy voters. Need more? Kansas hasn’t improved from last season. Its fans, as always, are in basketball mode. There’s a reason Oklahoma is favored by five touchdowns.

Score: Oklahoma 38, Kansas 0