Case growth across states continues to decline, indicating that the U.S. has avoided the worst-case projections of coronavirus illnesses and fatalities. The University of Washington’s IHME model, which earlier forecasted a best-case scenario of at least 100,000 deaths, has been revised down twice this week, with the current estimate at 60,000.

On a per capita basis, the tri-state area remains the hardest hit. Louisiana, Michigan, and Massachusetts have high case numbers as well, but they seem to have succeeded in avoiding the severe outbreaks seen in New York and New Jersey.

The growth rate in new cases continues to decline. The table below shows the average daily growth rate in new cases over the past five days and the change in that growth rate from five days prior. The negative percentages in the right-hand column reflect decreases in the growth rate across all the hardest-hit states. That being said, recent growth in California is higher than we’d expect given that the state is at a late stage in its outbreak. Delayed test results likely account for that increase.

U.S. testing has increased over the past week but fell on Sunday and Tuesday. It is unclear whether that decline reflects limited capacity or a decrease in testing due to reductions in cases. By some estimates, the U.S. will need to administer 2 million tests a day to roll back social-distancing measures. We’ll be watching testing data closely this week to see how quickly the U.S. can move to the “test-and-trace” strategy used by South Korea.

New York and Louisiana have the highest testing capacity of any state. The numbers in Michigan and California are troubling, because they may be undercounting cases. Michigan is on a dangerous trajectory, and it may see a severe outbreak if it cannot administer as many tests as New York and Louisiana.