Note: This article uses expected goals and expected assists. You can click here for expected goals explanation video and here for expected assists explanation video. All data were collected from understat.com.

Real Madrid gave away one of the best cheat codes available in football for €100m. He scored a ridiculous 451 goals in 9 years. He helped a team that was knocked out of the Champions League in the round of 16 for six straight years to a team that won 4 titles in 8 seasons of the tournament. It was always bound to happen, but Real Madrid would have preferred for it to have lasted a few more years. Seeing Cristiano Ronaldo in a Juventus shirt is still weird, but it happened. Now, they turn the page to begin their next chapter. The first line of this chapter goes: how the hell do you replace a guy who took 6.95 shots p90 and scored 26 goals from 1.05 xG90 in the league? This is a preview of what a post-CR7 era would look like in the league. Sort of.

Cristiano Ronaldo only played 27 games out of 38 league games last season, initially due to 5-game ban given by La Liga in a glorified friendly, and later because of Zidane resting him. The games in which Ronaldo was rested usually came in away games. Real faced 10 different opposing teams, and some of them were high-quality teams like Valencia and Sevilla. Real Madrid ended up winning 7, drawing 2, and losing 2 in those 11 games. Although this sample isn’t perfect given that they didn’t face teams at the very top without Cristiano, those 11 games can act as a meaningful sample which could show a glimpse what we might see in this new chapter.

Real Madrid didn’t sign any new goalscorers like Icardi, Kane, or Neymar, so barring a shock transfer, they are likely start with Bale and Benzema as their main goalscorers for this season, with Isco, Asensio and Vasquez being the other potential goalscorers. In this article, I explain what Real Madrid could expect of these five attacking players and what Real Madrid’s realistic target should be. I tried to see how midfielders and full-backs would be impacted without Ronaldo, but there wasn’t a huge difference and sometimes threw up random numbers. So, I removed them. Let’s get started

Gareth Bale

Glossary: no of per90 games= minutes played/90 xG=expected goals xA=expected assists

When Real Madrid signed Bale, it was with the expectation that he would become one of the main players in the team. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen as planned as his body is practically made up of glass, and he hasn’t played over 2000 minutes in La Liga since 2014–15. When not injured, however, he’s one of the best players in the world and is likely to be most benefitted with Ronaldo leaving. He played 7.28 per 90 splits without Ronaldo. In those minutes, he took 2 extra shots p90 and more than doubled his xG. This goes in- hand with the Tottenham Bale who also took a similar amount of shots. With Ronaldo, he didn’t help as much in setting up chances for his teammates as seen from the decrease in key pass per90 and xA per90.

What to expect in 2018–19: If he remains injury-free for a long time and plays 25 games (2200 minutes) or more, Real Madrid should expect him to take >5 shots per90 and score around 25 goals in the league. And that’s a big ‘if’ on the injury. Real Madrid should sign him up for Ronaldo’s resting programme where they rest him on away games to reduce travel and thereby preventing injuries. Bale could end up having the most productive year in his career.

Karim Benzema

Glossary: no of per90 games= minutes played/90 xG=expected goals xA=expected assists

Karim Benzema had his worst year in terms of goalscoring last year. Real Madrid should hope that it’s just a confidence issue, a one-off. Benzema’s numbers without Ronaldo, however, were encouraging. Like Bale, his shots per90 increased from 2.34 to 3.21. His xG has also increased by about 0.27 per90. His xA and key pass per90 had a slight increase, although it could just be random.

What to expect in 2018–19: If he plays 25+ games like Bale, he could have 18–20 xG. The low bar should at least be 15 goals in the league. Alternatively, if he fails, Real Madrid could use Asensio as a false 9 like they did in their pre-season friendly. The striker position creates the most uncertainty for Real Madrid. Bale’s fitness is not in their hands for the most part. Deciding against signing anyone for the short term for scoring goals can very well end up costing them this season.

Marco Asensio

Glossary: no of per90 games= minutes played/90 xG=expected goals xA=expected assists

Another big beneficiary of Ronaldo leaving will be Marco Asensio, not necessarily in terms of offensive numbers but in terms of playing time. He can be a starter, now that Ronaldo is gone. He played the most minutes without Ronaldo among these five attackers. Unlike Bale and Benzema, he didn’t have much of a difference in shots per90 and xG per90. But for some reason, his key pass per90 and xA per90 reduced drastically without Ronaldo. This might be due to the role he played without the man from Portugal. His numbers were slightly better playing with Ronaldo, which is also the case for the remaining three players.

What to expect in 2018–19: His numbers will be the one that will have little resemblance to the 2017–18 without Ronaldo numbers. If he plays false 9, he would take more shots and improve his xG drastically. Asensio, however, played as a winger in the UEFA Super Cup against Atletico. If the numbers above persist, he would have about 7 xG, which isn’t huge. On the other hand, this is just his lower estimate and his potential ceiling can be very high. He could at least get 15 goals and 10 assists in the league with increased shots per90 within the box.

Isco

Glossary: no of per90 games= minutes played/90 xG=expected goals xA=expected assists

Isco’s numbers appear to be the most random. His sample is the smallest among these five players without Ronaldo. Without Ronaldo, he took slightly fewer shots and his xG numbers took a hit. And surprisingly, his xA per90 increased despite no correlation with his key passes.

What to expect in 2018–19: His numbers will remain pretty much the same if he plays deep like last year. However, Real Madrid should try to play him more advanced. He did increase his shots per game from 2016/17 (1.76) to 2017/18 (2.48) and could continue doing it this season. It should be noted that Isco is also a very good finisher, and Real Madrid should tap into that. 10+ goals and 10+ assists should be his target.

Lucas Vasquez

Glossary: no of per90 games= minutes played/90 xG=expected goals xA=expected assists

Like Asensio and Isco, Vazquez was a slightly better player with Ronaldo. Ronaldo’s gravity could be one of the reasons for this. His key pass per90 numbers decreased, but his xA ended up being pretty much the same. His shots per90 numbers took the biggest hit. He took less than 1 shot per90, but his shots were of a higher quality without Ronaldo (which could just be a coincidence).

What to expect in 2018–19: His numbers should remain fairly the same. He is likely to come on as a substitute for the main games as well as start in games in which the starters are rested. Getting 10 goals would be great.

Now that we’ve seen how the players have done without Ronaldo, we’ll see how Real Madrid did in those 11 games without him.

Glossary: xG=expected goals

Predictably, Real Madrid took fewer shots without Ronaldo. They took less than 4 shots per game. Without Ronaldo, Real Madrid’s xG was slightly larger, but they did overperform slightly with Ronaldo. Real Madrid scored over 100 goals in all but one season (2017–18, 94 goals) with Ronaldo. It went as high as 118 goals when Ronaldo scored 48 goals in 2014–15. He has scored 30–40% of their goals each season. That will be their biggest concern. By the expectations above, those 5 players should score about 75 goals next season, but those are some lofty expectations when you consider that they scored only 38 goals combined last season. The midfielders, full-backs and other attacking players contributed to 27 goals, which will remain the same this season too. This season’s success heavily depends on those five players fulfilling their expectations.

What to expect from Real Madrid: Real Madrid should target La Liga and Copa Del Ray. Winning the league means being consistent and developing a tactical identity. The past few years, Real Madrid didn’t have a clear tactical identity, and it was all random. Under new manager Julen Lopetegui, they can change that.

One of the situations in which Real Madrid will miss Ronaldo will be the big games against the likes of Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, and co. But matches against them are worth the same 3 points as against the other 17 teams. In reality, we put too much effort in those 4 games. Instead, we should put the same amount of effort in all 38 games even if the team is a lower ranked one. Lopetegui’s men shouldn’t be judged on those 4 games rather than the other 34.

As seen from the above table, Real Madrid never got more than 5 points in the last 5 seasons against Atletico and Barcelona. Barcelona leads the big-3 table in the last 5 seasons. But the league had often gone to the team that took most out of remaining 102 points (except for 2015–16 where Barcelona bottled their lead in April). Among those 17 teams, the teams that rank between 4–7 are the toughest lot. These are the games where Real Madrid should put more effort than they normally do, as it is very easy to give up points. Just look at 2014–15, when Real Madrid took 75 out of 78 points from the rest, but lost 10 points against those teams ranked 4–7. Losing points against them would hurt more than losing against Atletico and Barcelona.

When it comes to squad rotation, Real Madrid shouldn’t play completely with backups, but rather mix it up with the starters against low ranked teams. Get a +2 or +3 goal difference before experimenting with other players.

As for the Champions League, it is very difficult to set expectations. Anything can happen, as a 2-game knockout tie can go against you even if you play well. A quarterfinals place would be nice, but they could drop out in the round of 16s if they face a tough team. That’s not to say that Real Madrid can’t win it; they are still one of the favourites. They still have players who can change games, even if not at the level we were used to seeing with Ronaldo.

This is a developmental season for Real Madrid. It’s a season in which they see what their young players can do in bigger roles. Unlike most clubs, however, Real Madrid will still be expected to win. Winning La Liga is considerably easier if they put the effort in all 38 matches. Getting second in La Liga will still be great, although I am not sure if the media and fans will react well to that. It is a big ask of Julen Lopetegui to win the league in his first season but unfortunately, that’s the job he signed up for.

Article by Vignesh Velu (twitter: @vigneshbvelu). Edited by Ashwin Raman (twitter: @thefutebolist) Thanks for the read. Feel free to comment about this article.