It’s official: Congressman O’Rourke will face incumbent Senator Cruz for Texas’ Senate seat. Barring a major scandal, I predict the Democrat will finish within five points and has a chance at an upset. This is not the view of the major predictors. Cook, Sabato, and the New York Times are saying this race is “likely Republican”; Inside Elections and CNN are predicting “safe Republican”*. These sort of ratings portend a double-digit win for Cruz. Absurd. No pollster should be calling this race safe. Beto O’Rourke is an exceptional candidate, being boosted by Trump’s and Cruz’s tepid approval ratings among Texans. Trump won the lone-star state by single digits, O’Rourke in this environment can reduce that advantage to a shoot-out. Especially against the repugnant Ted Cruz. We have a ball game, some good breaks for Beto would put him in the Senate. The data proves it.

*Since this article was conceived CNN have switched to “likely Republican”

Cruz-ing For A Bruz-ing

Ted Cruz is a Canadian born son of a Cuban refugee who hates immigrants. Ted Cruz is a smug-prick hated by everyone in the Senate, even his own party. Ted Cruz’s habits at Princeton included “donning a paisley bathrobe and walking to the opposite end of their dorm’s hallway where the female students lived.” The Senator embodies the worst hypocrisy, braggadocio and ineffectiveness of the fragile-male-ego wing of the GOP. Correspondingly, in February polling Cruz had a negative net approval rating from Texans. 32% “disapprove strongly”, polling speak for “mega-loathe”. Texas has voted Republican in statewide elections 123 times in a row, yet Cruz is somehow under-water.

In contrast, O’Rourke is endearing. He took a two-day road-trip to DC with a Republican (Will Hurd) and both Congressmen enjoyed it, even found common ground. No one would spend two days in a car with Ted Cruz. Voters sweeten on Beto the longer they know him. O’Rourke improved his vote total every election, garnering 65% in 2012, 67% in 2014(a midterm!) and 85% in 2016. He outran Clinton by 35%, and edged Obama slightly in 2012. Cruz? Trailed Romney in his only election by 2%. Texas produced Governor and President Bush, the guy people wanted to get a beer with. In this race that bar buddy is O’Rourke. The latest poll from UT/TT shows Cruz at 42 % to 40% unfavorable. O’Rourke boasted 29% to 14% favorability. Even Cruz’s own push poll gave O’Rourke twice as many favorables as unfavorables — 14/7% — and had Cruz only barely positive, with favorable/unfavorable of 50/42%. In a campaign push poll! For Cruz to win convincingly with these numbers he’d need Presidential coat-tails or down-ballot help. Instead, Ted is facing an uphill climb.

Trump’s Country, We’re Just Polling Against It

O’Rourke isn’t just running against Cruz. He’s running against Trump. Presidential favorability always affects Senate elections, especially in our polarized electoral environment. For instance, the Nevada and Arizona Senate elections are considered tossups because they like Trump about as much as the nation does. These states’ electorates approve of Trump by a point MORE than Texans according to Gallup. 39% of Texans approve of Trump while 53% disapprove. Trump’s turning Texas purple. Of the 19 states that have below 40% approval of Trump, just 2 states are represented by a Republican Senator. One Senator in Colorado, two in Texas. The other 35 Senators caucus with Democrats. Texas has the lowest approval rating of Trump of any state without a Democratic Senator. November 8th is an opportunity to change that. Even if Trump polled a little higher in Texas, in the 40–50% approval range, Texas would enjoy company with reddish-purple states considered toss-ups in November. All those states voted for Trump or Clinton by less than 5%. About half have one Senator of each stripe. Texas is on the BLUE side of those states.

This is because Texas has soured on Trump faster than the nation as a whole. Comparing this poll to his 2016 victory, 538 found that Trump’s net approval in Texas has dropped precipitously: 18 points. More than all but the most Trump voting states (where he had far more ground to lose). Put another way, Texas voted for Trump by 9%, and nationally Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. Texas should thus approve of Trump by 9–11 points more than the American average. Instead, it is the national average: a tepid 40%. That is not the polling data of a state gearing up for a Republican blowout. It’s the polling data of a tossup. Would you expect different when Republicans trail the generic ballot by Trump’s Texan margin?

When Moms Not A Republican, Nobody Is

There has been a lot of ink spillt about how Texas will turn purple as it diversifies. Even-keeled analysis though will note that white votes will be decisive for decades. Whites will continue to have higher turnout. They are older, richer, and more educated as a cohort than the average Texan, traits that augur higher voting rates. Not good for Democrats, especially factoring in that Texas whites are more conservative than whites nationally. Compound that with racially motivated voter-ID laws and a statewide Democratic win seems phantasmagorical. Simply put, higher minority representation and turnout will help O’Rourke, but won’t get him close to beating Cruz.

However, that’s not the whole story. In 2016 the college-educated got more liberal, add the national polling advantage Democrats enjoy with women this cycle, and you get the foundation of a winning coalition for O’Rourke. In midterm elections, the college-educated, and women vote more than non-grads and men relative to presidential baselines. Nationally, this has historically been bad for Democrats, who relied on male-dominated unions for turnout. In Texas, the college-educated, minorities and women are the Democratic base, not unions. Clinton won women in Texas, and if O’Rourke can improve on her haul by a few percentage points, that’d put him right on Cruz’s tail. Instead, O’Rourke can expect something closer to the 21% national swing in female sentiment about the parties. That’d have him win by high single digits.

Part of why O’Rourke can expect this type of swing is Congressional races. The two most competitive congressional elections are in the Texas 7th, a wealthy educated suburb of Houston, and the Texas 23rd, a majority Hispanic district on the border with Mexico. Both of these congressional seats represent O’Rourke’s target voters, one mostly Latino, and one mostly college-educated whites. Turnout in competitive elections is substantially higher, so having two congressional districts representing your core target demographics — in midterms historically plagued by low turnout — will help. Democratic turnout will also be higher in rich suburban districts like the 4th, 8th and 32nd, and the majority-minority 5th district(where the Republican Congressman retired), all of which didn’t have a Democrat run last time, and now do. O’Rourke will even get help in ruby red majority-white rural districts, specifically the 11th, 19th, and 36th districts. All three districts were uncontested in 2016, and are sporting challengers this year. Narrowing Cruz’s advantage in red districts is perhaps more important than contesting swing districts, this is where Democrats have made the most gains in elections this year. Altogether these districts total 9 out of 36 congressional districts in Texas, meaning O’Rourke can expect substantial down-ballot help in 25% of the lone-star state. In contrast, only O’Rourke’s home district has a Republican challenger and didn’t have one in 2016. Cruz is also getting whacked by the retirement of six Republican stalwarts that outran Trump by an average of almost 20 points, compared to one Democrat retiree that substantially outran Clinton: O’Rourke. That is fertile ground for the challenger.

All to play for

With Texas’ electoral history, a Democrat winning this Senate seat would always need something special. A hated incumbent Senator and President. Some down-ballot help. Great favorability ratings. Luckily for Beto, he’s getting all three. All he has to do now is reach voters, leveraging his massive war-chest to make himself known in the second largest state. It will take something to put O’Rourke over the top, but scandals happen. Perhaps Cruz will continue to share his porn habits, perhaps Trump’s approval will continue to slide. But when O’Rourke has made himself known, don’t be surprised when the polls put him within five. That’s where the fundamentals of this race peg him. Texas is the upset that can flip the Senate.