Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced today that he will not be giving the mandate for forming a government, already returned by his own ruling AKP, to the second-place CHP, and will rather be moving quickly toward fresh elections.

A surge in support ahead of the June election for the pro-Kurdish HDP cost the AKP its absolute majority, and they were unable to convince either of the two other parties to join them in a coalition government, or to allow them to run as a minority government.

Though Erdogan is believed to be betting on fresh votes costing the HDP greatly, what with the new war against the Kurdish PKK, the first polls coming out don’t appear to back that up, and suggest that the HDP, which got 13% in the vote, is up to 14%.

Though some still believe that PKK violence will erode support for the HDP by the time a new vote is held, it remains to be seen if it will hurt them or the AKP, which launched the new war against the PKK in the first place, more. Even if the war fuels nationalist sentiment, the AKP may have to contend with the overtly racist MHP on the nationalist vote, meaning they might not have an easy route to a majority in the next election either.