They used to share the same conference, but to call UConn and Louisville "rivals" in women's basketball is a stretch. The Huskies lead the series 17-1, with the Cardinals' lone victory coming in 1993. At that time, UConn coach Geno Auriemma hadn't yet won his first NCAA championship, and Louisville's Jeff Walz was still in college.

But as the teams head into Thursday's nonconference showdown at Louisville (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET), there's a sense that the Cardinals could break through. That has seemed possible in some of their other meetings in recent seasons, but it didn't pan out.

With the Huskies ranked No. 2 and 18-1, and Louisville ranked third and 19-1, this is a marquee matchup that could have NCAA tournament implications. Will we see a familiar result, or will it shake up the women's basketball world a little?

Three reasons why Louisville will win

Resilience: Not only are the Cardinals 1-9 at home against top-five teams since Walz arrived, only two of those losses were by single digits. And as impressive as the lone win was, a 33-point rout of Notre Dame a season ago, even that game was effectively over by halftime. Particularly early on in the Walz era (from 2007), Louisville was a team that maxed out its ability, like a runner that didn't have anything left for a finishing kick when a truly elite opponent pulled away for a comfortable win.

That has been changing for a number of years, even if the results remained the same. And Louisville's lone loss this season, 82-68 at Notre Dame on Jan. 10, was one of the more encouraging recent data points. After getting buried in foul trouble and giving up its halftime lead, Louisville fell behind by double digits early in the fourth quarter. Rather than wilt, the Cardinals cut it to a one-possession game, the run fueled not by Asia Durr but freshman Mykasa Robinson and junior Bionca Dunham.

Losing to UConn (again) won't necessarily be cause for disappointment. The disappointment will be if Louisville doesn't answer the inevitable UConn run.

Asia Durr and third-ranked Louisville must have an answer for the inevitable UConn run. Matt Cashore/USA TODAY Sports

Defensive pressure: The Huskies arrive in Louisville ranked 26th nationally in turnover margin, forcing 4.47 more turnovers per game than they commit. On an absolute scale, that's excellent. But UConn hasn't ranked that low or had that small of a margin for an entire season in nearly a decade, since the 2011-12 season that ended with a loss against Notre Dame in the Final Four.

Louisville is among the teams ranked ahead of UConn in turnover margin this season (the Huskies still maintain a comfortable lead in assist-to-turnover ratio). That's a reflection of the perimeter depth Walz has amassed with Arica Carter, Durr, Dana Evans, Jazmine Jones and Robinson.

When UConn lost earlier this season to Baylor -- admittedly a team constructed with an entirely different blueprint than Louisville -- the Lady Bears didn't allow UConn extra possessions off turnovers. Whether in limiting its own turnovers or creating them, Louisville will hope to do the same.

Best player on the court theory: There is nothing analytical about this one. It is grounded in nothing more than the mostly unfounded notion that it's worth picking the team with the best player on the court -- especially if she's playing at home. Granted, we don't know that Durr is the best player on a court that includes UConn's Katie Lou Samuelson and Napheesa Collier. For that matter, we don't even know what condition Durr is in after she dressed but didn't play in Louisville's most recent game. ("Asia's been playing a ton of minutes," Walz said afterward. "It's just her knee was a little sore.")

But with all apologies to NC State, which visits in late February and is the lone unbeaten team in Division I, Thursday is Durr's final opportunity to bring down the house on the banks of the Ohio River. This is the last home game she will play with the entire sport watching her. She was outstanding at Florida State last week. She was commanding against Kentucky in December. Louisville's best hope might be that its best player proves yet again she can score like a professional.

Three reasons why UConn will win

Because the Huskies own Louisville: The Cardinals have not only lost 17 straight to UConn, the closest they've come was six points in 2008 and seven points in 2006. The Huskies' average margin of victory in the series is 21.8. The teams have met twice in the NCAA final; the Huskies won 76-54 in 2009 and 93-60 in 2013.

It would seem like somewhere along the line, the Cardinals would have caught the Huskies on a less-than-great day. And maybe they have, but it still hasn't translated to a victory. Last season, Louisville -- like UConn -- ended up as a Final Four team. The Cardinals seemed to have the tools then, as they do now, to challenge the Huskies. But they fell 69-58 in Storrs, Connecticut, and it didn't seem that close.

The Huskies are excellent at stretching defenses: This never seems to change, regardless of personnel. UConn's consistent ability to find the holes in every defense remains unmatched. It's the way the Huskies cut and screen, the way they pass and the way they learn to trust their well-honed instincts.

Last season, the Huskies won with a dominating first half in which they shot 56.3 percent from the field. They didn't keep that up for the second half, but they didn't need to; the game felt over after UConn took a 24-6 first-quarter lead.

Kia Nurse, Gabby Williams and Azurá Stevens are gone from that team. But Samuelson (18.8 points, 7.2 rebounds per game) and Collier (18.6, 10.0) remain among the best one-two punches in college.

Crystal Dangerfield (12.9 PPG), Megan Walker (12.9) and Christyn Williams (11.1) all average double figures in scoring, and Dangerfield has 109 assists to just 35 turnovers. In other words, as usual, UConn has scoring capacity at every position. It doesn't have much depth, but that has never really been an issue for the Huskies.

The Huskies' lone loss isn't as big a deal as some think: UConn loses so infrequently and so much is made of it when it happens, it sometimes feels as if one loss counts for about four by any other team.

This isn't to make excuses for UConn, or take away from Baylor's great performance in the Lady Bears' 68-57 victory over the Huskies on Jan. 3 in Waco, Texas. But UConn hadn't played a game since Dec. 22, looked a little sluggish, and shot the ball worse (29.4 percent) than any Huskies team had in 20 years.

It was the first regular-season loss that seniors Samuelson and Collier had experienced. On the bright side, it gave them a chance to put a defeat to use right away by learning from and responding to it. The only other games they'd lost were both season-enders in 2017 and '18.

Losing at Baylor was a rare thing in another way, too: The Huskies are typically just as good on the road as they are at home. Over the past 20 seasons, UConn has won 15 road games against top-five opponents.