There's clearly more than we know behind Doug Ford's surprise pre-Christmas decision to kill Hamilton's light rail transit project, with leaked documents casting even more doubt on the already-suspect revised cost estimates the premier blamed for the cancellation.

The Progressive Conservatives suddenly upped the LRT's price tag from $1 billion to $5.5 billion, adding in 30-year operating costs, financing and contingencies. The province refused to provide detailed documents supporting its figures. Now we know why.

Documents obtained by the Toronto Star show the government's Infrastructure Ontario estimated the cost of "all elements" of Hamilton's 14 kilometre LRT, over the same time, at $3.75 billion, just $87 million more than the approved budget. That's nowhere near enough to cancel, especially with Hamilton's population projected to grow 46 per cent over 20 years.

Hopefully the auditor general will look at both estimates, and compare the cost of Hamilton's LRT with a just-approved $4.6 billion, 18 km LRT in Mississauga, and with Ford's hastily-designed subway to link Ontario Place on Toronto's waterfront with the Ontario Science Centre.

Perhaps more concerning, the leaked documents also show two of the three groups shortlisted to bid on Hamilton's LRT had stopped participating in the process, citing concerns about a lack of provincial and municipal support, but without listing specific reasons.

The big money folks can read the tea leaves, and didn't like what they saw when the newly-elected Ford government imposed an eight-month funding freeze on the Hamilton LRT in August 2018, the only Metrolinx project affected by the "pause" in spending. Why would the "open for business" PCs single out Hamilton's LRT with such an ominous signal?

LRT proponents shouldn't give up yet, given Ford's willingness to change his mind in the face of public pressure. He's already reversed course on autism funding, development on the Green Belt, and cuts for ambulances, public health, daycare, children's aid societies and legal aid.

Ford likes to say his government listens to people, a common refrain when backtracking, so people who still think an LRT is possible in Hamilton need to ensure the premier hears the best financial case for getting it back on track.

The LRT was already spurring much needed investment, which predictably ground to a halt with Ford's sudden cancellation. Hundreds of millions of dollars in projects had been green lit because of the planned LRT, and that was likely just the start. Kitchener-Waterloo saw $2.1 billion in private investment along the corridor of its new LRT.

Metrolinx has spent at least $160 million buying up dozens of properties for the LRT, but instead of new development Hamilton has decrepit old homes and businesses, empty and boarded up. Future unknown, but bleak because of Doug Ford. Remind him of that.

A task force that will recommend how the $1 billion promised for the LRT will be spent will have four provincial appointees but just one named by the city, and according to the CBC, it will "consider both transit and highway projects, including light rail transit."

It's supposed to have a preliminary list of projects by the end of February, an unusually short time frame, which combined with the 4-to-1 appointee ratio suggests the province already has a plan in mind. But what exactly?

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Ford needs to be reminded, repeatedly, that he promised Hamilton an LRT. Anything less will set the city back decades instead of helping it move forward into a more prosperous future.

Keith Leslie is a veteran Ontario journalist covering politics

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