Any talk of a “plateau” in coronavirus cases in central Pennsylvania is premature, said Dr. James Raczek, chief medical officer at UPMC Pinnacle.

“There’s talk of a peak in next week or so,” Raczek told PennLive in a phone interview Thursday. “I don’t think that’s correct in what we’re seeing. I think we are going to see a peak in a number of weeks down the road. We are planning for significant number of (COVID-19) patients that need to be treated.”

Raczek declined to provide specific figures for how many cases the multi-county health system of seven acute care hospitals with 1,160 licensed beds, over 160 outpatient clinics and ancillary facilities is expecting. UPMC Pinnacle serves Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry, York, Lancaster, Lebanon, Juniata, Franklin, Adams and parts of Snyder counties.

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Whatever the number is, Raczek said UPMC Pinnacle is ready in terms of planning, staffing and equipment provisions to effectively treat pandemic patients.

“We want to be ready, and we are ready,” Raczek said. “We are looking at all of our options to ramp. I think we are weeks away from that peak. As Dr. Fauci said, the virus will determine the timeline.”

Raczek did acknowledge that social distancing is working to lower the curve of the coronavirus outbreak, both nationally and in Central Pennsylvania. He expressed hope his hospital system will never need to deploy its worst-case scenario planning for a significant surge in coronavirus hospitalizations.

“I always like to have a plan I don’t have to use,” said Raczek, who added there was “no exact number” of how many hospitalizations his system was forecasting at the peak.

Dr. James Raczek

“Every (UPMC Pinnacle) hospital has a surge plan to take on many, many more patients. We will find a way to take care of the patients who present,” he said.

One aspect of the pandemic response that isn’t performing to Raczek’s liking is COVID-19 testing.

Raczek said UPMC-Pinnacle is currently processing a total of just 30 to 40 COVID-19 tests a day throughout the region. He cited a number of “limiting factors,” including the supply of test kits and the safety and cleaning precautions taken before and after each outpatient sample collection.

To be considered for a test, a patient must have a referral from a doctor that’s then reviewed by the health system’s office of infection prevention and control – all before an outpatient appointment for sample collection is either offered or denied.

Raczek added that the health system also has to be judicious in testing its own staff members who might have had exposure to the virus, forcing them to quarantine rather than resume work.

“The bottom line is we would like to test every person we thought needed to be tested,” Raczek said. “That number is quite large.”

While Raczek said he hopes to ramp up testing soon, widespread testing that would provide a “better picture of community” remains a ways off.

As it is, Raczek said the percentage people who test positive at UPMC Pinnacle sites is running about 11%-12% of all those tested by the regional health system.

“From my perspective, that is high,” Raczek said. “And the reason is, we have a selection criteria to meet certain signs and symptoms. That’s why that number to me is higher than screening the general population.”

System-wide across all of UPMC’s 40 hospitals, those testing positive for COVID-19 is 8% of those tested in the system, a spokeswoman said.

The Pennsylvania Department of Health confirmed 1,989 new cases of the coronavirus on Thursday, raising the statewide total to 18,228.

At least 338 people have died due to the virus, including 29 new deaths reported Thursday.

At least 26 patients have died in the Harrisburg region, including three new deaths reported Thursday by the health department. The new deaths were reported in Lancaster, York and Adams counties. This marked the first death in Adams County, according to state figures.

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