This is a huge week for Justin Herbert, as the former Oregon quarterback will learn his professional fate in the NFL Draft.

Herbert is expected to be taken in the first round of the draft, set for Thursday at 5 p.m.

Herbert will become the latest in a long line of Ducks quarterbacks in the NFL, but will he be successful?

In the NFL, so much of it depends on which team selects you.

Justin Herbert’s time with the Ducks

Herbert finished his college career strong in 2019, leading the Ducks to the Pac-12 championship and Rose Bowl victory.

He threw for a career-high 3,471 yards and 32 touchdowns while leading Oregon back to the top of the conference.

Herbert’s career came at a tumultuous time for Oregon, as he played for three head coaches in his four seasons — Mark Helfrich, Willie Taggart and Mario Cristobal.

To put that in context, before Herbert got there, the Ducks had just three head coaches since the beginning of the 1995 season.

Despite the instability, Herbert continued to develop throughout his college career, and he enters Thursday’s draft as one of the top prospects in the nation.

He has good size at 6-foot-6 and 236 pounds, with a strong arm. He also has good speed, as he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.68 seconds at the NFL Combine.

Of all the Oregon quarterbacks who played in the NFL, the best comparisons would be to recent first-round picks Marcus Mariota (No. 2 overall to the Tennessee Titans in 2015), Joey Harrington (No. 3 overall to the Detroit Lions in 2002) and Akili Smith (No. 3 overall to the Cincinnati Bengals in 1999).

All three had tough situations.

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Akili Smith’s situation

As a senior at Oregon, Smith had a strong 1998 season, throwing for 3,763 yards, 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

That success landed him a high draft pick in the 1999 NFL Draft, when the Cincinnati Bengals selected him with the No. 3 overall pick.

Smith struggled in his career, and so did the Bengals. During his second season in 2000, Cincinnati fired head coach Bruce Coslet and replaced him with Dick LeBeau.

Smith played four seasons with the Bengals, and appeared in just 22 games, with 17 starts. He completed just 46.6 percent of his passes for 2,212 yards, five touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

He never played another game in the NFL. His record as a starter was 3-14.

Joey Harrington’s situation

Harrington had a storied career at Oregon, improving with the Ducks each season.

He won three bowl games during his Ducks career — the Sun Bowl as a sophomore, Holiday Bowl as a junior and Fiesta Bowl as a senior.

In his final two seasons at Oregon, Harrington threw for 6,622 yards, 61 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. There was a lot of hype on him going into the 2002 NFL Draft.

Harrington was selected No. 3 overall by the Detroit Lions.

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Like with Smith, Harrington dealt with a coaching change quickly while in Detroit. Marty Mornhinweg was fired after Harrington’s rookie season and replaced by Steve Mariucci in 2003.

Mariucci then was fired during the 2005 season, which was Harrington’s last with the Lions.

Harrington then became a starter in Miami in 2006, and Atlanta in 2007. He didn’t play in another NFL game after the 2007 season.

For his career, Harrington completed 56.1 percent of his passes for 14,693 yards, 79 touchdowns and 85 interceptions. His career record as a starter was 26-50.

Marcus Mariota’s situation

Mariota had a stellar career at Oregon, culminating with a Rose Bowl win, trip to the national championship game and Heisman Trophy in his final season in 2014.

In his career with the Ducks, Mariota threw for 10,796 yards, 105 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in three seasons. He also rushed for 2,237 yards and 29 touchdowns.

Mariota was selected by the Tennessee Titans with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft to become their franchise quarterback.

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In his five seasons in Tennessee, the Titans had three head coaches—Ken Whisenhunt, Mike Mularkey and Mike Vrabel.

He was benched in 2019 and replaced by Ryan Tannehill.

The verdict on Mariota’s career is still out. He signed with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason, and while he might be the backup there right now, things could change.

Despite the turmoil in Tennessee, Mariota has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 13,207 yards, 76 touchdowns and 44 interceptions. He also has rushed for 1,399 yards and 11 touchdowns.

His record as a starting quarterback is 29-32, and he has a playoff victory on his resume.

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What Justin Herbert needs

As for Herbert, what he needs is what every young quarterback needs — an organization that will foster growth with patience.

Most projections have him going either No. 5 to the Miami Dolphins or No. 6 to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Of the early pick options, the Chargers are the best fit for him.

The Chargers not only would keep Herbert on the West Coast, but they are opening a new stadium this season, along with the Los Angeles Rams, and they want to make a splash and build a fan base.

That leads to the other positive about the Chargers — they don’t have an established fan base to grow impatient with a young quarterback.

The Chargers moved from San Diego to Los Angeles in 2017, and they have struggled to fill a small soccer stadium in the L.A. area since the move.

The organization won’t feel pressure to rush things with Herbert.

The Chargers’ last two main starting quarterbacks were Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, who both have had long, successful NFL careers. So the organization has a history of being a quarterback-friendly franchise.

For Oregon fans who hope to see a former Duck really excel in the NFL, the hope is for Herbert to avoid landing at a dysfunctional spot, like Smith, Harrington and Mariota.

We’ll find out Thursday.

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Pete Martini covers high school and college sports for the Statesman Journal. You can contact Pete at pmartini@StatesmanJournal.com, 503-399-6730 and follow @PeteMartiniSJ