On the day Duncan Hunter officially ended his tenure representing the 50th Congressional District, a poll released Monday shows the race to succeed him has focused more tightly around three candidates.

A San Diego Union-Tribune/10News poll of 512 likely voters conducted by SurveyUSA shows Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar leading a crowded field of 10 candidates with 26 percent.

Closely following him are Republican opponents Darrell Issa (21 percent) and Carl DeMaio (20 percent). The poll’s margin of error is 5.7 percentage points.


Republican state Sen. Brian Jones was the only other candidate to reach double-digit support with 12 percent. Fifteen percent of those surveyed said they were undecided.

The top two finishers in the March 3 primary, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the general election in November.

The poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, shows strong partisan disagreement over President Donald Trump’s decision to order the killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani and the president’s immigration policies.


Among a subset of voters who said they are certain to vote, Campa-Najjar’s support reached 33 percent, while Issa’s and DeMaio’s tied at 20 percent.

The latest poll suggests the race’s dynamics have changed since October when Hunter was still in the race.

In that SurveyUSA poll, Hunter garnered 11 percent despite being under federal indictment on 60 counts related to federal charges that he illegally spent more than $250,000 in campaign funds on personal expenses.

He pleaded guilty in December to a single count of conspiracy to convert campaign funds to personal use, a federal felony likely to carry some prison time, and later announced his plan to resign.


The new poll has both Issa, a former congressman, and Jones attracted greater support than in October, when they polled at 16 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

Support for DeMaio, a former San Diego City Council member, remained flat at 20 percent in both polls.

Things also appear to have shifted for Democrats since the October poll.

Marisa Calderon, executive director of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, wasn’t part of the October poll; she entered the race in December. In the latest survey, she polled at 3 percent.


Now that Campa-Najjar is not the sole Democrat in the field, his support dipped from 31 percent in October to 26 percent in January.

Of the five other candidates — Republican Nathan Wilkins, independents Helen Horvath, Lucinda Jahn and Henry Ota, and Peace and Freedom Party candidate José Cortés — only Horvath and Wilkins received at least 1 percent support.

The 50th District has more registered Republicans than Democrats: 141,853 to 101,927. Of likely voters surveyed, 44 percent said they are Republican, 31 percent are Democrats and 23 percent are independent.

Among Republican voters, Issa leads with 37 percent, followed closely by DeMaio with 31 percent. Jones received 18 percent.


Meanwhile, Campa-Najjar continued to be the overwhelming choice among Democratic voters, though support dipped from 69 percent in October to 62 percent in January.

Calderon garnered 5 percent from Democrats.

Campa-Najjar maintained a slight lead among independents as well (24 percent), edging out DeMaio (20 percent) and Issa (17 percent).

The poll also sought to shed light on the highest priority issues for district residents.


Voters said the “character of the candidate” is slightly more important than border security, holding President Donald Trump “accountable for his actions” and “rallying around the president.”

Other top issues included climate change, government spending and gun rights.

The 50th District, which includes swaths of East County, inland North County and a small portion of Riverside County, was the only district among San Diego County’s five congressional districts held by a Republican.

Because of the timing Hunter’s resignation, Gov. Gavin Newsom has said the seat will remain vacant until next January.


San Diego County voters will begin receiving mail ballots early next month.

