Community has announced that a character from the show is going to die this season. I try to figure out who it is.

Ever since I sat down and watched the entire run-to-date of Community (and immediately became so fanatical that I rewatched the entire series again), I’ve been promising at least one 11 Points list on the show.

I know Community isn’t the most universal topic, but I assume a reader of 11 Points is more likely to also be a fan of Community than the average person. So I’m going with it. If you’re not a Community person, well, this list will basically be gibberish to you. But I’d really recommend just giving the show a try. Every episode is available on Hulu Plus. And once you get into it, you’ll watch all of them before your free trial even expires.

A few days ago, Joel McHale told TV Guide (for some reason) that, quote, “A character from the show will die… someone you’ve seen a lot.” This list is all speculation on who that is. I’ve picked 11 possibilities and ranked them from least to most likely.

11 | Gobi Nadir

Why he will be killed off: The show gets a ton of mileage out of times when they can pull some raw emotion out of Abed. (The season one episode where he makes a short film about his parents’ divorce; the season two animated Christmas episode.) Also, the actor who plays Abed’s father plays the principal on Glee — and Community has made it abundantly clear they have no respect for anything associated with Glee.

Why he won’t be killed off: Seems a little too cruel to Abed at this point to essentially make him an orphan. That would take the show to a darker place than I think they want to go. It’s essentially the “darkest timeline.”

10 | Pierce Hawthorne

Why he will be killed off: He’s one pain pill away from taking orders from Andy Dick again. Also, the show has made it very clear he’s both old and sinister.

Why he won’t be killed off: They’re not going to kill off one of the core study group. And especially not the one played by the actor who might still bring in occasional casual viewers. (“Hey, isn’t this the show with Chevy Chase?! I loved him in Hot Tub Time Machine!”)

9 | Magnitude

Why he will be killed off: Pop pop!

Why he won’t be killed off: Pop pop!

8 | Fat Neil

Why he will be killed off: The show can’t decide whether he’s a fully sympathetic character or something of a punching bag. Plus, Jeff Winger COULD always go out and try to find a fatter Neil.

Why he won’t be killed off: They played Dungeons & Dragons for an entire episode because he was feeling suicidal. That’s a lot of devotion to keeping him alive.

7 | Ben Chang

Why he will be killed off: Ken Jeong has a busy movie career. Ben Chang was best as the Spanish teacher and second-best as a loser crashing on Jeff’s couch — making him a security guard feels like a shoehorned attempt to keep his character around. It reminds me of when Screech became the assistant principal on Saved by the Bell: The New Class.

Why he won’t be killed off: He’s a pretty major character and a somewhat big-name actor. And I don’t feel like his arc has come to an end yet.

6 | Professor Duncan

Why he will be killed off: Known drunk driver. Doesn’t seem to have a whole lot to do this season. Since he’s British, he might be like Doctor Who Inspector Spacetime and just regenerate as a new professor.

Why he won’t be killed off: John Oliver is really too entertaining in his role to let go of. I don’t see how killing him off would lead to any big character breakthroughs. And it would be nice to see him succeed with one woman before the show ends.

5 | Vice Dean John Goodman

Why he will be killed off: I had no idea what his character’s name was (turns out it’s Robert Laybourne). All you see when he’s onscreen is John Goodman. And I think Dean Pelton might need him to disappear to keep Greendale running at its current level.

Why he won’t be killed off: Thanks to his loyal, secret society of air conditioning repairmen he’s protected (and at room temperature) at all times.

4 | Dr. Rich

Why he will be killed off: It would have a significant impact on several of the characters and drive their development in the future. Also, on a less meta note, no one can be that perfect. He would need to die in a kettle corn and/or kiln explosion.

Why he won’t be killed off: Based on the study group becoming more and more of an evil force, you can’t really kill off the yang to their yin.

3 | Starburns

Why he will be killed off: He might take a gimmick too far to differentiate himself — I mean where do you go after star-shaped sideburns, a top hat and an iguana? Either that, or his meth lab explodes.

Why he won’t be killed off: I can’t see them putting “Alex” on his tombstone.

2 | Leonard

Why he will be killed off: He’s really old and lives a very dangerous lifestyle. Also, he eats way too much frozen pizza for someone his age.

Why he won’t be killed off: It’s too obvious. Plus he’s an outstanding occasional foil to Jeff.

1 | Todd (no offense)

Why he will be killed off: Because ever since he met the study group, his life has been poisoned by their toxicity.

Why he won’t be killed off: I can see no argument for keeping him alive.

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