Fantasy Football Target Analysis

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Adam Thielen led all wide receivers in targets with 19. Jarvis Landry accounted for 40 percent of the Browns target share. Mike Evans led all wide receivers in Air Yards with 234. John Brown (189), Will Fuller (185), and Antonio Callaway (185) were the only other receivers with 150 or more Air Yards. Quincy Enunwa (2.85) led all receivers with five or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Landry (0.81) and Devin Funchess (0.81) tied for the highest Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Other notable wide receivers with high WOPRs in Week 2 include Robert Woods (0.77), Will Fuller (0.71), and Calvin Ridley (0.68). You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week I will highlight one player per tier that is projected to see significant target volume that could result in a big Week 4 performance.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 1 Adam Thielen MIN 3 19 14 105 24.5 2 Jarvis Landry CLE 3 15 8 103 20.3

Adam Thielen continues to lead the Vikings in Air Yards, targets, and fantasy points in PPR formats. He will continue to see significant targets in the Vikings offense and provides you with weekly WR1 upside.

The fortunes of Jarvis Landry improves significantly with Baker Mayfield under center. He currently leads the Browns in targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards, and fantasy points in PPR formats. This trend is likely to continue considering the contract that the Browns front office signed him to earlier this year. The Raiders offense has allowed the fourth highest number of fantasy points to wide receivers. Landry has a high floor in PPR formats with top-eight upside.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 3 Robert Woods LAR 3 11 10 104 33.7 3 Mike Evans TB 3 11 6 137 25.7 3 Will Fuller HOU 3 11 5 101 21.1 3 Juju Smith-Schuster PIT 3 11 9 116 20.6 3 Randall Cobb GB 3 11 4 22 4.2

JuJu Smith-Schuster is in a great position heading into the Steelers Week 4 matchup against the Ravens on Sunday night. The Steelers are currently on a 13 game win streak in prime time games. They have won all of those games by an averaged combined score of nearly 12 points. Smith-Schuster should continue to see a high number of targets. Antonio Brown humiliated the Ravens last December with 11 receptions for 213 receiving yards. If the team goes all out to stop Brown then Smith-Schuster could finish this week within the top-10.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 8 Michael Thomas NO 3 10 10 129 22.9 8 Chris Godwin TB 3 10 5 74 16.4 8 Odell Beckham Jr NYG 3 10 9 109 19.9 8 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 3 10 6 86 14.6 8 Michael Crabtree BAL 3 10 7 61 13.1 8 T.Y. Hilton IND 3 10 5 50 10 8 Taylor Gabriel CHI 3 10 6 34 9.4 8 Antonio Callaway CLE 3 10 4 20 6 8 Stefon Diggs MIN 3 10 4 17 5.7

The only wide receiver with more targets than Michael Thomas (42) entering Week 4 was Adam Thielen (43). He is currently the WR1 in PPR formats and has a salivating matchup against the Giants this week. The projected point total between these two teams is 50.5. The Saints and Giants have hit the over in four of their last five matchups with an average combined score of 71. The Saints offense will continue to have to score a high number of points considering their defense is allowing 421 yards per game to opposing offenses. The Giants have the offensive weapons to keep up with the Saints. This is a dream matchup for those deploying Thomas into lineups this week.

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Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 17 Davante Adams GB 3 9 7 52 18.2 17 Antonio Brown PIT 3 9 6 50 17 17 John Brown BAL 3 9 5 86 13.6 17 Keelan Cole JAX 3 9 5 40 9

John Brown is only averaging 7.6 targets per game but is averaging 152.3 Air Yards per game heading into Week 4. He has a plus matchup against the Steelers defense which provides him a decent floor and WR1 upside.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 21 Calvin Ridley ATL 3 8 7 146 40.5 21 Jordy Nelson OAK 3 8 6 173 29.3 21 Sammy Watkins KC 3 8 5 55 18.5 21 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 3 8 5 38 18.3 21 Brandin Cooks LAR 3 8 7 90 16 21 Christian Kirk ARI 3 8 7 90 16 21 Golden Tate DET 3 8 6 69 12.9 21 AJ Green CIN 3 8 5 58 10.8 21 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 3 8 4 57 9.7

Sammy Watkins has the second most targets (15) on the Chiefs over the last two weeks. This game has a projected point total of 56. The total has gone over in four of the Chiefs last five games. This also applies for the team’s last five games on the road. The Broncos, on the other hand, have seen the total go over in five of their last six games against the Chiefs. I believe Watkins will continue to see opportunities this week against an unintimidating Broncos secondary. He does have a low floor considering the plethora of offensive weapons at the Chiefs disposal, but the upside is immense considering this offense is producing nearly 400 yards per game.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 30 Mike Williams LAC 3 7 4 81 24.1 30 Tyler Boyd CIN 3 7 6 132 25.7 30 Sterling Shepard NYG 3 7 6 80 20 30 Devin Funchess CAR 3 7 4 67 16.7 30 Mohamed Sanu ATL 3 7 4 36 15.6 30 Kenny Golladay DET 3 7 6 53 17.3 30 Allen Robinson CHI 3 7 3 50 8 30 Keenan Allen LAC 3 7 3 44 5.4 30 John Ross CIN 3 7 3 16 4.6 39 Tyler Lockett SEA 3 6 4 77 18.2 39 Marvin Jones DET 3 6 4 69 16.9 39 Cooper Kupp LAR 3 6 4 71 16.8 39 Julio Jones ATL 3 6 5 96 14.6 39 Ted Ginn NO 3 6 3 12 12.2 39 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 3 6 3 35 6.5 39 Brandon Marshall SEA 3 6 2 30 5 39 Torrey Smith CAR 3 6 3 19 4.9

Jones is averaging 11.3 targets per game this season. He actually leads the Falcons in red zone targets with four, but hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 1. Jones currently leads all receivers in Air Yards with 548. He was very productive in Week 4 considering he faced Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Jones remains an elite WR1, but will have another difficult matchup against Bengals corner William Jackson.

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Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 47 Kenny Stills MIA 3 5 3 61 15.1 47 Demaryius Thomas DEN 3 5 5 63 11.3 47 Tyreek Hill KC 3 5 2 51 7.6 47 Cole Beasley DAL 3 5 3 46 7.6 47 Willie Snead BAL 3 5 3 39 6.9 47 DeSean Jackson TB 3 5 3 37 6.7 47 Anthony Miller CHI 3 5 4 35 7.5 47 Martavis Bryant OAK 3 5 2 30 5.4 47 Adam Humphries TB 3 5 3 30 6.4 47 Taywan Taylor TEN 3 5 4 30 7 47 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 3 5 3 29 5.9 47 Nelson Agholor PHI 3 5 4 24 6.4 47 Amari Cooper OAK 3 5 2 17 3.7 47 Phillip Dorsett NE 3 5 0 0 0

Kelvin Benjamin continues to lead the Bills in targets (16) and Air Yards (279). His play needs to improve, but it is difficult to fade this type of volume especially in deeper formats.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 61 Geronimo Allison GB 3 4 2 76 15.6 61 Jamison Crowder WAS 3 4 4 39 14.5 61 Ryan Grant IND 3 4 3 35 12.5 61 Marquise Goodwin SF 3 4 3 30 11.8 61 Corey Davis TEN 3 4 2 34 5.4 61 Laquon Treadwell MIN 3 4 4 33 7.3 61 Dede Westbrook JAX 3 4 3 31 6.1 61 Chris Hogan NE 3 4 3 31 6.1 61 Andre Holmes BUF 3 4 3 29 5.9 61 Trent Taylor SF 3 4 3 24 5.4 61 Allen Hurns DAL 3 4 2 22 4.2 61 Michael Gallup DAL 3 4 1 17 2.7 61 Chester Rogers IND 3 4 2 14 3.4 61 Pierre Garcon SF 3 4 1 11 2.1 61 Chad Williams ARI 3 4 1 8 1.8 61 Robby Anderson NYJ 3 4 2 22 2.2

Lack of consistency at the quarterback position for the Titans continues to suppress Corey Davis’ upside entering Week 4. He leads the team in targets (25) and Air Yards (206). The release of Rishard Matthews locks Davis into the No. 1 receiver role for the Titans. I still believe more productive fantasy days are ahead for the young receiver.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 77 Jakeem Grant MIA 3 3 2 70 21 77 Jaron Brown SEA 3 3 2 25 10.5 77 Tavon Austin DAL 3 3 3 2 11 77 Chris Conley KC 3 3 2 13 9.3 77 Ryan Switzer PIT 3 3 3 9 9.9 77 Danny Amendola MIA 3 3 3 42 7.2 77 Devante Parker MIA 3 3 2 40 6 77 Courtland Sutton DEN 3 3 2 37 5.7 77 Tyrell Williams LAC 3 3 2 22 5.6 77 Rashard Higgins CLE 3 3 3 32 6.2 77 Terrelle Pryor NYJ 3 3 1 25 3.5 77 Josh Malone CIN 3 3 1 12 2.2 77 Josh Doctson WAS 3 3 0 0 0 77 Donte Moncrief JAX 3 3 2 16 1.6 91 Albert Wilson MIA 3 2 2 74 21.48 91 Paul Richardson WAS 3 2 1 46 11.6 91 Vyncint Smith HOU 3 2 1 28 3.8 91 Kendrick Bourne SF 3 2 1 27 3.7 91 Austin Carr NO 3 2 1 25 3.5 91 James Washington PIT 3 2 2 25 4.5 91 Deonte Thompson DAL 3 2 2 23 4.3 91 Jordan Matthews PHI 3 2 2 21 4.1 91 Cody Latimer NYG 3 2 1 15 2.5 91 Dwayne Harris OAK 3 2 2 11 3.1 91 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 3 2 2 9 2.9 91 TJ Jones DET 3 2 1 4 1.4 91 Zach Pascal IND 3 2 1 3 1.3 91 D.J. Moore CAR 3 2 1 3 1.3 91 Rishard Matthews TEN 3 2 1 3 1.3 91 Robert Foster BUF 3 2 0 0 0 107 Cameron Meredith NO 3 1 1 11 8.1 107 Zay Jones BUF 3 1 1 17 2.7 107 Tajae Sharpe TEN 3 1 0 0 1.6 107 Cordarrelle Patterson NE 3 1 1 12 2.2 107 Bruce Ellington HOU 3 1 1 10 2 107 Aldrick Robinson MIN 3 1 1 9 1.9 107 Marvin Hall ATL 3 1 1 7 1.7 107 Marcus Kemp KC 3 1 1 7 1.7 107 Jarius Wright CAR 3 1 1 7 1.7 107 Darius Jennings TEN 3 1 1 7 1.7 107 Ray-Ray McCloud BUF 3 1 1 6 1.6 107 Josh Bellamy CHI 3 1 1 2 1.2

It is surprising to see Larry Fitzgerald only have two targets in an NFL considering his overall statistical body of work. He has averaged 9.3 targets per game throughout his career. The Cardinals change at quarterback from Sam Bradford to Josh Rosen could breathe new life in the offense. Fitzgerald can continue to be viewed as a WR3 in PPR formats until further notice with a low floor and minimal upside.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. Next week we will finally incorporate a receiver’s target volume not only for the current week, but also for the season. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

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