FIGHT FOR ODI STATUS

Upsets at World Cup Qualifier could embarrass ICC

by Bertus de Jong • Last updated on

Should Afghanistan and PNG both lose, they will both have lost three group matches and be all-but certain of going down to losers' classification. © ICC

The Netherlands are currently struggling against the UAE, with just 176 to defend and the latter cruising at the Harare Sports Club. Afghanistan let Hong Kong get to 241 at Bulawayo after having them on the ropes at the start, and have already lost three wickets in the chase. Papua New Guinea had the Windies 4 down early chasing 200 over at Old Hararians. Upsets can happen. If the results fall a certain way, however, the ICC may face a very serious problem.

Should the Netherlands, Afghanistan and PNG all lose on Thursday (March 8), and two of those three are more likely than not, a severe issue with the tournament format will be exposed. PNG will want to lose their next match.

The problem stems from the fact that the tournament not only decides who qualifies for the World Cup, but also which three of Scotland, Hong Kong, the UAE, Nepal and PNG are awarded ODI status for the next four years. As the Netherlands have already earned ODI status by winning the World Cricket League Championship, there are only three more slots available, which will go to the best finishing three of the aforementioned five.

With three teams from each group progressing to the Super Sixes, the expected eventuality was that the classification playoffs between the losing four teams would decide ODI status. However, if three of the five reach the Super Sixes, those three will claim ODI status automatically and there will be no ODI spots available in the losers' play-off matches.

Should Afghanistan and PNG both lose, they will both have lost three group matches and be all-but certain of going down to losers' classification, though the Afghans could still scrape through on a three-way tie, PNG's odds would still be better if the Dutch make it through too. Should the Netherlands lose to the UAE, they will have to win their next two matches to have any realistic chance of reaching the Super Sixes at the expense of the UAE. The problem is, their next match will be against PNG.

In this scenario, it will clearly be in the interests of PNG to lose this match, and hope the Dutch reach the Super Sixes, or else their chances of retaining ODI status will be essentially nil. Should the Papuans win, they will have made sure the Dutch join them in the losers bracket, and all-but guaranteed that the three ODI spots will go to the UAE, Scotland and either Nepal or (more likely) Hong Kong.

The decision to base ODI status for the coming four years on the outcome of a single tournament always looked rather strange, in light of the chosen format, it may potentially also be extremely embarrassing.

© Cricbuzz

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