Indian fighter jets carried out strikes against targets inside undisputed Pakistani territory, but open-source evidence suggested that the strike was unsuccessful.

At around 3:30 a.m. local time on February 26, a flight of 12 Mirage 2000 multi-role fighters reportedly attacked facilities of the terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) near Balakot town in Mansehra District, Pakistan. Using open-source evidence, @DFRLab was able to geolocate the site of the attack and provide a preliminary damage assessment.

While most sources at the time identified the strike as taking place in the Pakistani town of Balakot, others located the strike at “Jaba Top,” a likely reference to a mountain top near the village of Jaba, about 10 kilometers south of Balakot.

Identification

On the morning of the February 26, after daybreak, a spokesperson for the Pakistan Armed Forces, Major General Asif Ghafoor, tweeted images from what he alleged to be the impact area of the Indian bombs.

Initial tweet showing damage left by Indian strike. (Source: @OfficialDGISPR/archive)

Ghafoor claimed that the payload was dropped in a hurry and impacted in an open area. The immediate imagery seemed to corroborate the statement, as the photographs were taken in a wooded area and did not show any damaged structures.

Two photos included fragments from the ordinance supposedly dropped by the Indian fighter jets. One image contained what looked like a set of tail fins and another what appeared to be a component for the targeting system.

The most identifiable photo was of the fins, which closely resembled those on the Israeli-produced SPICE-2000 precision-guided munitions (PGM). SPICE uses INS/GPS coordinates for autonomous navigation and electro-optical seekers for target identification and terminal navigation. According to Rafael, the manufacturer of the SPICE series of PGMs, the electro-optical sensor matches the scene with pre-loaded imagery for accurate target acquisition and homing.

Bomb components compared against a mockup SPICE-2000 among other Rafael products mounted on an F-16 model during the 2017 Paris Air Show. (Source: AIN Online/archive)

Initial reports stated that Mirage 2000s dropped 1,000-kilogram (approximately 2,000 pound) bombs on their targets, which is the same size of the SPICE-2000. This was corroborated by later reports, which stipulated that the SPICE-2000 was used in the strike. These munitions are compatible with the fighter jets, lending credibility to this assessment.

Location of the Strike

In addition to the imagery posted by the Pakistan Armed Forces spokesperson, video footage emerged of the area near the strike, showing a second point of impact. The video showed locals talking about the strike and claimed that only one man received injuries as a result of being startled by the bomb blasts.

Video showing additional damage in the target area. (Source: @shamajunejo/archive)

The video posted on social media showed a valley similar to the one appearing in the video shared by the Pakistan Armed Forces spokesperson. A single cluster of buildings was visible on top of the mountain ridge. Imagery posted by Uppsala University Professor and UNESCO chair Ashok Swain on Twitter showed a closeup of this building, allowing for a clearer view of the area.

Overlap of closeup view and a still from the video footage, confirming that both images are from the same location. (Sources: @shamajunejo/archive; @ashoswai/archive)

Using this more detailed imagery, @DFRLab was able to confirm conclusively that this strike did in fact take place near Jaba Top. A comparison between tree clusters and the buildings visible in the imagery provided a positive match.