“The epidemic of drug overdoses in the United States has been inexorably tracking along an exponential growth curve since at least 1979, well before the surge in opioid prescribing in the mid-1990s,” said senior author Donald Burke, MD, Pitt Public Health dean and UPMC-Jonas Salk Chair of Global Health.

“Although there have been transient periods of minor acceleration or deceleration, the overall drug overdose mortality rate has regularly returned to the exponential growth curve. This historical pattern of predictable growth for at least 38 years strongly suggests that the epidemic will continue along this path for several more years.”

Burke and his colleagues say the type of drug and the demographics of those who die from overdoses has fluctuated over the years. When the use of one drug waned, another drug replaced it, attracting new populations from different geographic regions.