European leaders have been at pains over the past 12 months to emphasise that Brexit is not the only or even the biggest issue confronting the EU. They do so, in part, to keep the British in their place. But they also speak the truth. Whether it is eurozone reform, the rise of xenophobic extremism or growing pressure exerted by Russia, Europe has an awful lot on its plate without worrying overmuch about what Boris Johnson wants.

Yet the EU’s biggest challenge in 2018 may be none of the above. It comes from within. It has been slowly emerging along the bloc’s central and eastern flanks since the so-called Visegrád Group of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic acceded in 2004. And it has sharpened into all-out confrontation following Brussels’ decision last month to punish the rightwing governments in Warsaw and Budapest for their rejection of migrant quotas and alleged disregard for EU values.

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Front and centre in this fight is Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, who wears his contempt for the liberal, integrationist European agenda advocated by Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president, like a badge of pride. Orbán has called for the defence of Europe’s “Christian culture” against “Muslim invasion”. And he accuses Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, of “moral imperialism” in supposedly forcing Syrian refugees on Europe in 2015.

Orbán’s crude antics have resulted in elevated poll ratings at home, his expected re-election this spring, and a raised profile as the voice of heightened central and eastern European resistance to Franco-German domination of the EU. The prospect of Britain no longer being around to offset the influence of Berlin and Paris has fuelled this reactionary, Eurosceptic dynamic among smaller EU states whose membership London formerly championed – yet another unwelcome Brexit outcome.

Orbán took the fight to Merkel last week, promoting his destructive nationalist-populist, anti-migrant agenda at a conference of the German leader’s CSU coalition partner in Bavaria. By encouraging opposition to Merkel’s approach among her conservative supporters, Orbán could help scupper her last chance of forming a government following 2017’s election reverses. If Merkel falls, a political colossus will have been brought low by relative nonentities, to the lasting disadvantage of a Europe where moderate, commonsense centre-ground politics is eroding.

Orbán now claims a new friend in the almost but not quite neo-fascist coalition that won power in Austria at the close of 2017. But it is Poland, under the ugly tutelage of the authoritarian Law and Justice party, that has emerged as his closest ally. Its government, too, is at legal odds with Brussels. And Poland’s leaders, too, sense a chance to influence the EU’s overall direction of travel. It was Poland’s duty, Jarosław Kaczyński, the country’s de facto leader, said last year, to “show the sick Europe of today the path back to health, fundamental values, true freedom and a stronger civilisation based on Christianity”.

Speaking alongside Orbán in Budapest last week, Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister, predicted a “year of great battles” against western Europe’s multicultural and integrationist values. It was time to scrap the EU’s migration policy, which was a “spectacular failure”. But bigger, glittering prizes were in sight. “I believe like-minded nations like ourselves together can influence Europe’s future in a very positive way … We don’t want to live in an empire but rather in an alliance of free nations,” he said. Nigel Farage would be proud.

The biggest punch-up in 2018 is likely to be over the EU’s next seven-year budget, which kicks in from 2021. Poland and Hungary are net beneficiaries. France and Germany are the biggest net contributors, their burden rendered more onerous by Britain’s retreat. Any cutbacks would hurt Warsaw and Budapest more than most, which may be why they are getting their retaliation in first. Nor can the eastern refuseniks count on unquestioning solidarity within Visegrád. Slovakia, a eurozone member, says its EU loyalties outweigh regional alliances.

Germany and the wealthier west European countries are now linking the future allocation of billions of euros in structural funds to improved cooperation from Poland and Hungary. Given the nationalistic, anti-Brussels mood in many smaller member states, such tactics could backfire. The obvious risk is that a big-boys’ crackdown on dissenters, coinciding with a difficult Brexit denouement, could leave the EU struggling for cohesion on both eastern and western fronts. Once again, the dream of a strong, united Europe may be slipping away.