Eddie Olczyk's 2019 Kentucky Derby Picks

Weather Again Muddles Kentucky Derby Picture

By Eddie Olczyk, Xpressbet Handicapper



I’m spending as much time as watching the weather as I am reading the Racing Form. I’m hoping on Mother Nature to shine upon us come about 6:30PM ET on Saturday evening. You have to have two plans come Saturday – one if it rains in Louisville and the other if it stays dry. As of Wednesday evening, there’s a 100% chance of rain on Derby Day.



Fast Track Plan: On a dry track, it’s ROADSTER for me. And it has been for some time. I got ROADSTER at 30-1 in February and 16-1 in March in future bets. That said, I’m not going to bet him to win Saturday because of the futures coverage. But I’ll use ROADSTER a lot in the gimmicks on a fast track, including longshots LONG RANGE TODDY and CODE OF HONOR as well as stablemate GAME WINNER.



Wet Track Plan: If it’s an off track, things really change for me after the scratch of mud-loving Omaha Beach. I don’t know if ROADSTER can get up and down on a wet surface. CODE OF HONOR could be interesting at a price if it’s wet given his turfy pedigree. Shug McGaughey-trained Orb rallied in the slop to win here in 2013. If the conditions worsen, you’ve got to stay flexible; I know I will be. And you know where to find me – on the NBC telecast – for the last-minute thoughts.



Analysis: As for handicapping the race, it starts with the question: Where is the pace coming from? I think there’s more pace in this race than a lot of people believe. Everyone has their opinion and that’s fine. But the rail draw is going to force WAR OF WILL to be sent to the front early. He has to come out looking for position. MAXIMUM SECURITY should be right there. If you watched ROADSTER’s April 20 work at XBTV.com, he looked like he sling-shotted out of the gate. He had 5-lengths on his workmate in a few jumps; he’s got some natural speed. TAX is also drawn on the inside and won’t want to get buried in there. And LONG RANGE TODDY is another horse with speed coming out of the 18 post and he’ll have to get involved early due to his outside draw.

$100 Wagering Strategy (Fast Track)

$40 Win: ROADSTER ($40)

$20 Exacta: ROADSTER over LONG RANGE TODDY, CODE OF HONOR and GAME WINNER ($60)

$100 Wagering Strategy (Wet Track)

$100 Wagering Strategy (Wet Track)

$40 Win: CODE OF HONOR ($40)

$10 Exacta Box: CODE OF HONOR, GAME WINNER and ROADSTER ($60)

Eddie's Fast Track Picks

ROADSTER LONG RANGE TODDY CODE OF HONOR

Eddie's Wet Track Picks