



Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest poll on the special election in South Carolina finds Democrat

Elizabeth Colbert Busch expanding her lead to 9 points over Mark Sanford at

50/41. Green Party candidate Eugene Platt polls at 3%.

Colbert Busch’s lead is on the rise for several reasons. She has a 51/35

advantage with independents. She’s winning over 19% of Republicans, while

losing just 7% of Democrats. And it also seems that after last week’s

revelations about Sanford that a lot of GOP voters are planning to just stay at

home- while the district supported Mitt Romney by 18 points last fall, those

planning to turn out for the special election voted for him by only a 5 point

spread.

Sanford continues to be unpopular in the district with 38% of voters rating

him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. 51% say the revelations about his

trespassing last week give them doubts about his fitness for public office.

Interestingly the events of the last week haven’t hurt Sanford too much with

Republicans though- 65% say the trespassing charges don’t give them any doubts

about him, and his favorability with GOP voters has actually improved from

55/39 a month ago to now 61/32.

Although Sanford’s unpopularity is clearly the main reason Democrats have a

chance to win in this district, it’s interesting to note that there is some

backlash against Republicans over last week’s vote on background checks. 86% of

voters in the district say they support them to only 12% opposed, and 45% of

voters say the GOP’s opposition to them makes it less likely they’ll support

the party in the next election compared to only 21% who consider it a positive.

That anger over the gun vote comes despite Barack Obama having only a 41%

approval rating in the district with 51% of voters disapproving of him.

“Elizabeth Colbert Busch is now looking like a clear favorite in the special

election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The only question

is whether an extremely unpopular Sanford can find some way to make voters like

her even less than him in the next two weeks.”

PPP surveyed 796

likely voters from April 19th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey

is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political

organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates in the special election for

Congress are Democrat Elizabeth Colbert

Busch, Republican Mark Sanford, and Green

Party candidate Eugene Platt. If the election

was today, who would you vote for?

Elizabeth Colbert Busch……………………………. 50%

Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 41%

Eugene Platt …………………………………………… 3%

Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Elizabeth Colbert Busch?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mark Sanford?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President

Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve …………………………………………………. 41%

Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Stephen Colbert?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Jenny Sanford?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor

Nikki Haley’s job performance?

Approve …………….. .41%

Disapprove…………. .43%

Not sure …………….. .16%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Vincent Sheheen?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were

Republican Nikki Haley and Democrat Vincent

Sheheen, who would you vote for?

Nikki Haley……………………………………………… 44%

Vincent Sheheen……………………………………… 38%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tim

Scott’s job performance?

Approve …………….. .48%

Disapprove…………. .27%

Not sure …………….. .25%

Q11 Do you favor or oppose requiring background

checks on individuals who purchase guns at

gun shows?

Strongly favor……… .72%

Somewhat favor….. .14%

Somewhat oppose . . 7%

Strongly oppose….. . 5%

Not sure …………….. . 2%

Q12 Does the Republican Party’s opposition to

background checks at gun shows make you

more or less likely to support its candidates in

the next election?

More likely………….. .21%

Less likely ………….. .45%

Doesn’t make a

difference …………….28%

Not sure …………….. . 7%

Q13 Do charges of trespassing against Mark

Sanford give you very serious doubts,

somewhat serious doubts, or no doubts at all

about his fitness for public office?

Very serious doubts 35%

Somewhat serious

doubts…………………16%

No doubts at all…… .44%

Not sure …………….. . 5%

Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for

Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%

Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%

Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%

Moderate………………………………………………… 31%

Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%

Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%

Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify

with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%

Republican……………………………………………… 42%

Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,

press 2. If other, press 3.

White …………………………………………………….. 77%

African-American …………………………………….. 18%

Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are

older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%

30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%

46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%

Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%