Let’s talk about edgic.

Now that I’ve lost half of y’all, for the rest of you undoubtedly too confused to run away, I’ll explain what it is.

Edgic is a practice revolving around dissecting the story we’re given via the edit, and other traditional guidelines of the edit gathered through the years to determine the outcome of the season. Primarily it’s used to guess the winner, but other outcomes can be gathered as well. Generally this is used via assigning people tones, based on what type of airtime they get, and whether or not it was presented in a way we should approve of or not.

It’s not an exact science, and sometimes it can be ineffectual at guessing the winner, but it works more often than not. In fact, if you don’t want anything about the outcome illuminated, you’re absolutely free to sit this episode out. Honestly, I won’t be mad, promise.

For the rest of you, though, it’s time to analyze some motherfuckin’ story.

Storytelling-Focused Edgic

That’s generally my approach to edgic. A lot of people go by a ruleset of sorts that, while not rigid, tends to be dependable. Things that generally boost the winner’s odds as of late include “consistent confessionals focusing on how someone’s playing the game, emotional backstory often repeated to remind you to root for them, established connections to other players, retconning any regrettable moves to not focus on or impact them”.

In addition, there are ways to spot runners-up- lately, they get far less focus in the post-merge while being solidly edited in the pre-merge, and get some negative second person view- where we’re told their character flaws and can connect it to them losing.

Going a bit beyond, we can infer things from people’s post-game interviews and infer its contrast to what we see on the screen to recognize that maybe we are seeing things differently than they occured for a reason to make people look better or worse.

This week in particular is interesting to edgic, because as the pre-merge ends, the post-merge begins, and things can change pretty drastically. Right now, I’m throwing caution to the wind. This is especially because the edgic rules have been… somewhat undependable lately. Besides, the story is far more interesting to analyze.

What’s the story we have been presented with at large?

The one we’ve gotten so far is that Malolo is getting unfairly savaged by Naviti, and there’s a campaign under the surface for Naviti to stay strong and use their numbers advantage to their benefit. Fight as they might, none of the Malolos appeared to be successful- except for two instances. One was where on New Naviti, the Malolos took advantage of a divide to get one of the alliance of Domenick, Morgan, and Wendell out after Dom spooked them. The other was largely Naviti helmed, where Domenick was so incensed by Naviti strong leader and general jackass Bradley that he broke the original tribe dynamic and voted Bradley out, largely out of spite.

We’ve largely gotten a story of good versus evil. The evil Naviti stonewalls, the good Malolo sweetheart victims, and then some Navitis that ride the middle. Now I’m going to try and make predictions based off of it.

And surprisingly, I am not certain anymore that a Malolo wins.

Part of it is because I think when Malolo burned its flag, Malolo was burned with it. The tribal divide is no more- at the cost of reversing a curse, Malolo is no more- and like Mana, will be factored into Naviti plans.

Part of it is that there’s a Naviti who strikes me as a sure winner.

The Final Four

I believe the final four will be Domenick, Wendell, Donathan, and Laurel.

First, while I have dismissed the edgic rules as fluid and unstable, the one thing I hold onto is that connections are important. People need to have valid reasons to progress further, and connecting them to others makes it less than guesswork. Right now, I know that Donathan and Laurel are connected, Laurel is connected to Domenick, and Domenick is connected to Wendell (and has been since Day One). Moreover, they all are lightly connected to each other. That’s probably the most solid connection sequence this season.

Let’s say they are the Final Four. Where would they place? Well, to answer that, I would have to point out the elephant in the room- the firemaking challenge. True, they know about it in advance this season (according to this article) but that doesn’t solve half the problems of it- that a possible winner can still be taken out due to a challenge seen by many as finicky, and knowing about it means a four-person alliance has little incentive to turn on each other.

That’s my problem with the Final Three- that strips an alliance of three of any incentive to flip on each other to secure a Final Two slot. Fourth place being decided by a challenge strips most of the desire of the Final Four to turn on each other- as it’s only a challenge that lies in their way. Imagine the Aitu Four getting to four and deciding on Becky and Sundra making fire to be fair, only that’s the norm now. Safe to say, I will always think the firemaking twist sucks, in different ways.

Of the four, I expect Wendell to win final immunity. He’s been shown as great at challenges. Not Chris level, but good. I would imagine he sends Laurel and Donathan to firemaking. Of those two, I think Donathan loses- because they established him as not great at challenges, but very liked. He’s the Malolo sweetheart, who keeps the heart of the tribe alive and has been part of both flips on Naviti. It’s for those reasons I can’t rule out him winning, but even stronger is that I can see him being the fourth place sweetheart.

That does mean Laurel makes the end. Does she win? Well… I think it’s possible, but not really the most possible thing. Laurel has been developed as a force of good, but hasn’t been really developed. We see her as intelligent and athletic, connected with Donathan, and considering aligning with Dom and Wendell. She’s a solid player, true, but I think she comes up just short at the end. Probably not by too many votes- but just shy of the win.

I think it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that Domenick loses a jury vote pretty hard. He’s gotten perhaps the most story for a jury vote loser for someone who has the story to make the finals. Naviti strong has been more stressed than anything, and from the outset Domenick has been the force against that. With the Bradley vote and his obsession with Chris, he seems set to break that pinata wide, wide open.

I think back to the premiere, with the rest of the tribe united, and Domenick gallivanting off against Chris like Gollum with his fake idol. I also remember Domenick bragging to the Malolos about lying to Chris about his idol, unable to keep his ego in his pants. I also acutely remember that being the catalyst to the Malolos voting out Morgan over Angela- people saw him as enough of a player to desire to weaken him.

The impression I get of Dom is that he will easily focus on breaking up Naviti to play the game and get back at Chris. He’ll own the title of Naviti slayer probably to the point of arrogance as he steps over the bodies he killed. If the jury is going to be majority Naviti, I cannot see any of them having the desire to vote him- both out of dislike of him, and possible like of his direct Naviti competition.

There’s a part of me that says a Malolo has to win, but maybe it’s more that the Naviti five who voted against Malolo every time has to lose. I recall in Worlds Apart musing around the time that Dan advocated slapping a woman into silence that it would be really fucked up if any of the Axis won. However, it was the one member of the Axis who stood up and acted like a decent person to Shirin, who was the most notable and abused member of the picked off Nagarotes, that got the win.We were supposed to take Mike’s win as a win by proxy for the Nagarotes. I mean, I didn’t, because that season sucks, but we were supposed to think that way.

This is a long winded way of saying one of the Navitis who helped the Malolos may win for them by proxy. That’s Dom, Chelsea, and Wendell. I already think Dom loses, and it is almost certainly not Chelsea, so it has to be Wendell.

To that point, Wendell has probably the most unique winner story, one that calls attention to itself despite him having a low confessional count for a male winner. Everything he’s been shown doing has been for the progression of the alliance and himself.

He tells Dom info about him others are spreading, he’s seen as Dom’s ally. Laurel and Donathan talk about not wanting to split on Wendell, so they align with Dom. Boom, alliance of four created. We see Wendell return Sebastian’s shell to him, boom, he’s shown as close with Sebastian and as a good guy who thinks of others and is well liked. Finally, the idol scene shows Wendell didn’t luck into those positions and has an eye on the game. The takeaway is that Wendell is causing good things to happen due to his focus and likability. Even his booboo in voting for Angela and letting Morgan get eliminated is handwaved as a mistake caused by Dom.

In the final tribal dynamic between Wendell and Dom, I can see the Navitis on the jury thinking “wow, Dom betrayed us, he’s such an asshole” and “man, Wendell betrayed us… but he’s such a cool dude, he probably had reasons.” That’s because Dom is giving people reasons he wants to betray Naviti, and Wendell gives them reasons to like him and be okay with him. There’s a difference between being seen as a player and as playing. The former is a noun. The latter is a verb. Domenick will be seen solely as a player. Wendell will be seen as a person playing the game.

The way I forecast it, I see Donathan being robbed by the firemaking twist, Domenick getting third with probably zero votes, Laurel getting a lot if not all of the Malolo votes, and Wendell getting all of the Naviti votes to edge her out.

But how does that happen?

The Merge Boot

Why would they succeed rather than be an easy thirteenth to tenth? We know that Chris and Dom are a rivalry. What’s stopping Chris from succeeding over Dom? A few things, in my eyes- we see Dom as a gameplayer. Good or not, he’s proactive. Chris, on the other hand, has spent the second swap being portrayed as an arrogant, unaware buffoon.

Sure, before that, he had the fifth episode where he beasted the challenge and warmed Donathan’s heart by relating to his struggle taking care of his grandmother. To that I say, aside from Donathan and Angela, who is Chris connected to? I can’t think of anyone. I think what happens is that Donathan is the main swing between Chris and Dom. Remember, he’s closest to Laurel. Laurel was shown hearing him out during Donathan reminiscing on his grandmother before Chris showed up. Laurel wants to side with Dom, so likely Donathan will do the same.

Then we have Angela. Poor Angela. Her whole story has been being loyal to Naviti while Naviti discredits and uses her. Her only alliance is with Chris and she’s not super attached to him anyways. However, everyone thinks they’re tight, and possibly could use her as a way to get back at Chris. If Chris wins immunity or others fear an idol, I think Angela will take the fall.

Dom and Wendell will likely have Laurel, Donathan, Sebastian, Chelsea, and possibly Libby. Either way, aside from Chris, Angela, and Bradley’s IRL girlfriend Kellyn, I don’t see much reason that the others would stay loyal to Chris. Jenna seems over him, and Des and Michael have no proven loyalty to Dom or Chris. At best, they have some loyalty to Kellyn.

Still, even if the numbers fall against Domenick, he has a way, and that leads me into my next point.

The Fate of Kellyn

The prominent focus is on the final four I’ve laid out (and some more than others), Chris, Michael, and Kellyn. Jenna, Libby, Des, Sebastian, and Chelsea are not relevant to this, and Angela largely through Chris. The next person I want to focus on is Kellyn- namely, the foreshadowing that she’s going to make a bad move.

Ghost Island is focused on the idea of curses and one bad decision haunting you forever. The first confessional of the whole season is Kellyn saying she doesn’t want to make a mistake like that. I could just excuse that as generic first confessional narration of the season… but I don’t doubt that literally everyone, even Sebastian, made a statement saying they didn’t want to make a mistake like those who ended up inspiring Ghost Island. Yet, Kellyn got it, apropos of nothing.

Kellyn has gone to Ghost Island twice. Whenever she’s gone, there’s been a weird zoom on some form of placard that says “One Bad Decision Can Haunt You“. We’re supposed to put a pin in it. The second time, she got a extra vote, and expressed that she wouldn’t make a mistake.

This gets at the core of edgic- hypothesizing something based off of the context the edit has given us. What have we gotten from Kellyn? Kellyn doesn’t want to make a mistake. Kellyn is the voice for Naviti strong. Kellyn has the extra vote. What has the story given us? Dom is exclusively voting for Naviti, Dom and Chris hate each other, and Kellyn looks poised to screw something up. Is it really a stretch, then, to suggest that Kellyn reacts to Dom’s betrayal by siding against him, and using her double vote against him in a bad way?

If I were to get more specific, maybe Dom does end up in the minority, but I can’t see the extra vote used at an odd number as at its most useful it would end up in a tie. If Dom survives the first round, he has an idol for the next one. Because of that, I can see the numbers seeming close, and Kellyn playing her extra vote. Like Dan, Kellyn could trigger an idol- and probably be early in line to be idoled out.

The Rest Of Them

It’s tricky to say that Michael belongs with a miscellaneous group considering he’s a big character, but considering he’s a big character he was very little story. He has no professed allies or connections aside from Kellyn leading him along with utmost fragility. His only real story is having idols and being the Malolo underdog, and I think that will translate. He reminds me of Spencer, the young lad of Cagayan. He may get far, hell he may get far doing some smooth moves, but he doesn’t have the connections or the story to win, just kind of flail around getting further than expected while being Michael. I can see him getting a late game boot- sixth or fifth- but not much further.

Chelsea I think may work with Dom, but I can’t see her making the end. She doesn’t have a story to win or lose. The tricky part is deciding her fate- she was connected to Kellyn and Des, but it was pretty clear she was at the bottom. I think she stays with Dom, but she reads a mid-merge boot- probably to get back at Dom in some way.

Des seems like she’s close to Kellyn, but has a little more independence than the Chelseas and Libbys of the world. I think her story has legs on her own, and she gets further than the early merge range you may see Angela, Chris, and Kellyn in. Possibly her story stays tied to Michael, as flimsy as it is. The Tasha to his Spencer, as it were. The Will to his Jay.

Libby I think may align with Domenick, but the only story she has set up is the valid reason that Domenick would want her voted out. When the Chris threat is neutralized, I see him flipping on her- whether she votes with him or not.

Sebastian is probably the most interesting of the miscellaneous crew. He’s been connected to Wendell- even asserting that Wendell was a missed connection he liked- a buddy who wasn’t his buddy. At the same time, he’s also connected with Jenna- probably the only person who is. The edit painted Sebastian as the sucker to Jenna’s poor, poor attempts at flirting. I could see him helping Wendell and Dom- and probably flipping if they ever need to- before being placed in sixth after Michael wins immunity.

However, it’ll be interesting to see how Jenna impacts things for him. Jenna’s probably the biggest question mark of the entire cast. I had hoped she would get some sort of Natalie Anderson revenge arc for Stephanie Rae, but it was not to be. Her only thing going for her is her connection to Sebastian- I do not think she is connected to anyone else remaining, good or bad. There’s a good chance she’ll be Seb’s smarter half, but if that’s the case, she’ll be cut down before he is.

Ghost Island

In this place was an original bootlist where I guessed where people landed, but this season has one element to it: it is Ghost Island. Advantages are going to be everywhere, and we just don’t know what they are and where they’ll be played. Therefore, it’s hard to guess the middle section at least because of all the advantages we have the potential of seeing. That’s really a fitting metaphor for modern Survivor: advantages and idols clouding the story.

Conclusion

I hope I proved that edgic isn’t just a bunch of poindexters using stats and laws to ruin the fun of everyone. It’s actually a pretty fun story analysis if you’re into that story thing. I’ve learned a lot about editing and writing through the edit’s use of relationships and Chekhov’s guns. In a good season for edgic, it’s a great way to understand what the story is going to be- and how the show led you there.

Now to see how flagrantly wrong I am- but still, it was nice to theorize.

-Cam