by Cian Fahey

"If being a quarterback was just about throwing the ball, the position would be easy to play."

There are different ways to interpret that sentence. A vast majority of people receive it as a suggestion that the quarterback needs to be a leader, that he needs to be clutch, and that he needs to carry some inherent ability that makes his team win games. That interpretation feels like it belongs in a fairy tale. It also feels like a molded narrative rather than an evidence-based response, because nobody who loses consistently is praised for his leadership or clutchness. Furthermore, judging an individual quarterback on wins means that you presume every quarterback plays in the same situations over the course of his career.

The more logical interpretation of that sentence is that it refers to the technical and mental aspects of the position. In that scenario, "throwing the ball" refers to the physical act rather than the responsibilities of the position as a whole. This interpretation makes more sense because of how quarterbacks succeed and fail in the NFL.

Quarterbacks who sustain success in the NFL generally do so because of their ability to read coverages and mitigate pressure in the pocket. Those are traits shared by quarterbacks such as Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. It's not a coincidence that those aspects of the position are the most difficult to master. At the college level, you can be an effective starter if you are somewhat accurate with enough arm strength to throw the ball to different areas of the field. In the NFL, the windows tighten and the coverages become more complex, so you can't simply rely on your physical talent to thrive. Furthermore, the pass-rushing ability of professional adults is dramatically higher than that of their college student counterparts, so you have less time and less space from which to make those more complex reads.

Finding a quarterback who is advanced technically and mentally at a young age is extremely rare. It's why there was such an outcry from media types when Teddy Bridgewater slid in the first round of the 2014 draft. Twelve months later, the NFL didn't whiff on Jameis Winston's acumen.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected Winston first overall in the 2015 draft. Winston had proven himself to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation back in 2013. The then-redshirt freshman was a foundational piece of a Florida State team that was littered with NFL talent. He won the Heisman Trophy after throwing the game-winning touchdown pass in the National Championship Game. More significantly, Winston showcased a skill set that had NFL scouts and draft analysts drooling. Because he was still just 19 years of age, the expectation was that Winston would only improve the more he played. That wasn't the case, as the FSU starter regressed in 2014, but the strengths of his skill set were still regularly put on show.

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During his rookie season with the Buccaneers, Winston wasn't overly protected like many quarterbacks are. Many quarterbacks are eased into the professional level. Their coaching staffs scheme simplified coverage reads by relying on play-action and screens while asking the center to set protections in passing situations. The Buccaneers did rely on a run-heavy offense and used six offensive linemen more often than all but one team in the league last year, but they were only average in their use of play-action and ranked 30th in their use of shotgun/pistol formations. Dirk Koetter didn't overly stress Winston, but the quarterback was still tasked with doing more than most rookies are. The above play against the New York Giants highlights the base of Winston's success.

From the all-22 angle above, we can see how the Giants defense lines up. The unit is aggressive early by pushing seven defenders into blitzing positions at the line of scrimmage. Winston sets his protections and appears to signal to his wide receiver at the bottom of the screen to reset further towards the sideline. Winston was expecting man coverage based on the pre-snap alignment, and the Giants didn't do anything unexpected before the ball was snapped. This meant that he could immediately find his slot receiver for a first down, converting the third-and-5. Moving the outside receiver to that side of the field further towards the sideline was crucial for the success of this play because it meant Winston didn't need to be concerned about the outside cornerback lingering in the spot where was going to throw the ball.

The end zone angle allows us to get a better look at the protection adjustment Winston made.

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Even though the Giants have seven defenders in the box and the Buccaneers have seven potential blockers, Winston only has six blockers to work with, plus one chip block coming from his tight end. He could alter the play to keep a seventh blocker in, but he can't be certain that the safety who dropped into the box is blitzing or playing man coverage. Instead, Winston sets up his protections so that every defender is definitely accounted for except for that safety. That safety is the furthest player away from the quarterback, so if he is given a free route, Winston will have more time to get rid of the ball then he would with any other free defender. Furthermore, that safety is the least likely blitzer, and the one player who can impact the design of the coverage more than anyone else in the picture. Winston can't adjust his protection right up until the ball is snapped, so he has to play the percentages and then react after the snap if something changes.

He doesn't need to react on this occasion, but he does have to deliver the ball with good timing.



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Winston has a window to hit with his accuracy, but also a window to hit with his timing. He has to let the routes develop so that the outside cornerback can't react once the ball is in the air. The outside cornerback is unlikely to because of the coverage that the Giants are playing, but that's easy to see from this position and a lot tougher to diagnose in the milliseconds you have from Winston's position. He also has to give his slot receiver enough time to get downfield so that the safety can't anticipate the play to cut in front of his route. While showing that patience, Winston also has to get rid of the ball before the unopposed blitz from the strong safety arrives. That safety will emphatically close Winston's timing window.

There are many plays like this one from Winston's rookie season that highlight his acumen. There are more that highlight his pocket presence, movement, and ability to throw receivers open with anticipation. That base of his skill set gives him a high probability of being a good starting quarterback for the duration of his career.

It won't make him great though.

For Winston to come close to scratching the surface of his potential, he has two major flaws that need to be addressed. The first is an obvious one: his turnovers. After that historical 2013 season in college, Winston became a turnover machine in 2014. Winston had a 40-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2013 before throwing 25 touchdowns to 18 interceptions in 2014, with seven fumbles. Winston was regularly throwing his team into holes during the first halves of games that he would then play an integral role in overcoming during the second halves. What was most concerning about Winston's interceptions was how repetitive the reasons for them were. Despite his obvious acumen, Winston regularly made awful decisions and had an apparent blind spot for underneath coverage.

A lot of his struggles were blamed on an offseason spent playing baseball. Whether that was an issue or not, Winston's interception issues in college carried over into his rookie season.

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Fifteen interceptions for a rookie isn't historically an awful number. Thirty-seven quarterbacks have thrown 15 or more interceptions since the merger, with notable names such as Peyton Manning, Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, Kerry Collins, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton on the list. In this era of football, 15 interceptions is a lot more significant than it has previously been. Only four quarterbacks threw more interceptions than Winston last year and, most significantly, Winston's interceptable pass number was extremely high. Winston threw an interceptable pass once every 20.6 attempts. Only six quarterbacks threw an interceptable pass more often. Three of those played hurt for varying periods, one was Johnny Manziel, and the remaining two were Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Interceptions are a major flaw that could very easily disappear. Of Winston's 26 interceptable passes last year, 16 were deemed to be a result of bad decisions. Of those 16, seven came over the first four games of the regular season. Bad decisions should theoretically become less frequent the more experience a quarterback gains, so Winston has reason for optimism in terms of taking care of the football. It's not a guarantee that he will improve in this area, but it's closer to probable than plausible.

The remaining interceptable passes were a result of poor accuracy. Accuracy is Winston's other major flaw at this point of his career, and it's one that is much less likely to be fixed.

Jameis Winston Accuracy Chart, 2015 Distance To 5 6-15 16-25 26-plus Outside Numbers Left 77.1% 35 74.1% 27 48.0% 25 26.7% 15 Outside Hashes Left 88.4% 43 75.0% 36 81.3% 16 0.0% 5 Between Hashes 91.7% 24 58.3% 12 62.5% 8 50.0% 2 Outside Hashes Right 80.4% 51 75.4% 57 59.1% 22 25.0% 4 Outside Numbers Right 82.9% 35 55.8% 52 55.6% 18 22.2% 9

No quarterback had a worse overall accuracy percentage amongst the 35 quarterbacks who were charted for the Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue. Winston had a 71.9 percent accuracy rate. He was the only quarterback to not crack the 72 percent mark, and only he and Fitzpatrick were below 73 percent for the season. In the context of their schemes, Winston was probably more accurate than Fitzpatrick despite the total number. Koetter runs a vertical passing game that asked Winston to regularly push the ball downfield last year. While that context should push him above Fitzpatrick, it isn't enough to suggest that he could be an average or even a below-average passer when it comes to accuracy. As the above chart highlights, Winston's accuracy to every level of the field is bad, independent of his awful deep passing.



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What needs to be noted about Winston is that he had a significant number of highlight throws that can be pointed to as examples of accuracy. The problem with pointing to those individual plays is that he was regularly pairing them with six or seven wild misses on simpler throws. Offenses typically rely on the simpler throws, so missing simpler throws is more of a problem than hitting highlight throws is a solution.

Fortunately for the Buccaneers, they had big receivers who could consistently adjust at the catch point to pull in off-target but catchable passes from Winston during his rookie season. That's a nice benefit to have, but it's not something you want to rely on over the course of a quarterback's career. For one, it's difficult to maintain that quality around the position, and those receivers can only do so much. They will have more drops because of poor ball placement and they can't cover for the quarterback when he misses so wildly that the ball isn't catchable.

As the chart above shows, one of Winston's biggest challenges is throwing to the right sideline.

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Mike Evans' drops became a storyline last year, rightfully so, but those drops overshadowed how often Winston cost Evans opportunities to make plays after he had beaten the defensive back covering him. Evans is an outstanding talent with the size, athleticism, and ball skills to offer his quarterback a margin for error at the catch point that is greater than 95 percent of the receivers in the league. He doesn't need perfect service, but he does need better than what he got last year. The above GIF highlights the kind of miss that Winston had way too often to every level of the field on a regular basis last year.

The Buccaneers get Evans isolated on cornerback Charles Tillman in the slot. The recently retired Tillman was once a great cornerback, but injuries and age made him an easy matchup for Evans in 2015. Evans is able to overpower Norman by first setting him up with his stem. When he comes out of his break, he is wide open. Winston has no pressure in the pocket, so he should easily lay the ball in front of Evans, giving the receiver a chance to catch the ball and turn upfield for a big gain. At worst Winston should give Evans a catchable pass that allows him to make the first-down reception.

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Sometimes quarterbacks will consistently miss receivers in specific ways. To most areas of the field, there wasn't a trend to how Winston missed except that he often missed wildly (exemplified by the above GIFs). However, when throwing to the right side of the field, and particularly to Evans, Winston constantly either underthrew or placed the ball too far infield. He often asked his receivers to make a difficult adjustment or took them out of the play completely.

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Winston doesn't have a great arm. His arm strength is more than adequate but it's hampered by his obvious mechanical imbalance. Winston's passes tend to float to all levels of the field, and he doesn't show off the requisite precision to say that he is simply being overly reliant on touch throws. The best measurement of arm strength typically comes on how a receiver throws downfield. Stronger armed quarterbacks can easily push the ball downfield so their mechanics don't change and they don't need to force the ball. This allows the better quarterbacks with strong arms to throw with precision on 20-plus-yard throws. Because Winston's passes tend to float off target so often, he is reduced to hoping that his passes are catchable rather than expecting them to be perfectly placed with precision. Andy Dalton is a great example of a quarterback who throws the ball this way.

This lack of arm talent and precision is highlighted most on these throws to Evans.

In the above GIF against the Atlanta Falcons, Evans runs a deep curl route where he turns towards the sideline and is expecting the ball to arrive after he turns. It should arrive either in front of his face or outside so it leads him towards the sideline and away from the defender. Instead, Winston puts the ball so far inside Evans that it is essentially between him and the arriving cornerback, Desmond Trufant. Trufant plays the receiver and Evans is very quick to react to Winston's misplaced pass. With a less talented receiver on the end of this pass, Winston was very likely throwing an interceptable pass. Most receivers of Evans' size would not have reacted or moved to the ball as quickly as Evans did, while most smaller receivers would have been more likely to take punishment from the arriving Trufant.

Regardless, the throw, independent of its specific target, was a poor one.

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Winston struggled to take advantage of defensive backs when his receivers beat them deep. He had a number of throws that looked exactly like the above one against the Philadelphia Eagles, where the ball dropped 5 or 6 yards short of where it needed to be.

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The above play against the Dallas Cowboys highlights Winston's arm. This is a difficult throw because of how he contorts his body. Winston needs to push the ball towards the sideline to lead him away from the trailing defensive back, but instead his pass floats and arrives inside. This makes Brandon Carr the favorite to get to the ball ahead of Evans.

Too many of Winston's throws looked like the ones highlighted in the GIFs in this article. Whether it's a mechanical issue, an arm talent issue, a natural inability to throw with precision, or a combination of all three, it doesn't matter. Winston's inaccuracy is what's preventing him from being anything more than an average quarterback at this point. If he corrects his accuracy he can become an above-average starter, at which point he can start working on becoming a great quarterback over time.