I can feel your cold, hard stares now. I've mentioned one of Texas's favorite sons, and the fact that I included the word "regression" in the title probably has you a little more than agitated. No matter, I press on.

Mitch Moreland had a career season in 2015. He matched a career high in home runs, he put up a WAR of 2.2 according to Baseball-Reference, and his defense at 1B provided some value, especially over what Prince Fielder likely would have provided in his place.

Based on the weight of that successful season, Moreland and Texas hammered out a 1-year, $5.7 million deal immediately before Moreland would have been able to make his case in salary arbitration, a situation that Texas has avoided with any player since Lee Stevens in 2000.

All told, $5.7 million is a good buy -- in terms of fiscal responsibility in baseball -- for what Moreland provides. I know it's something I bring up quite often, but an assumed cost per win of $6.5 million on the open market would end up costing Texas $14.3 million to replace Moreland at his 2015 production level. Those types of numbers are always a bit give-and-take, but give us a general guideline.

Now, I'm prepared to come right out and say it: Mitch Moreland is due for regression in 2016.

For starters, Moreland is heading into his age-30 season, and it's been well-established that players on the wrong side of that figure tend to taper off. That issue is often further exacerbated in power hitters, a profile that Moreland more closely fits than not.

Adding into the equation that he's never really managed to stay healthy -- even an elbow injury and apparent stress fracture in his left foot hampered him in 2015 -- and we're talking about a player who isn't likely to see a sudden disappearance of these issues in a post-30 career.

For all of the success he saw in 2015, Moreland still wasn't very impactful against left-handed pitching. Don't get me wrong, not every left-handed hitter can be like Joey Votto -- who posted a higher wRC+ against lefties (178) than righties (170) in 2015 -- but you'd still like your 1B to be able to produce better than a wRC+ of 80 against lefties, which comes in at well below-average.

Beyond just the splits is a bigger issue. Determining exactly how much of Mitch Moreland's 2015 success was "real", so to speak. To expound on that a bit, most of the damage done in Moreland's 2015 campaign was in the month of June. For starters, his ISO -- isolated power, a measure of a hitter's raw power -- was .313 in June, and you can see a little bit of how awesome that was in the heat map below.