Time is running out to stop a hard Brexit There has been much activity on the political pond over the summer: Conservative and Labour politicians rowing back from the extremes of […]

There has been much activity on the political pond over the summer: Conservative and Labour politicians rowing back from the extremes of “hard Brexit”, as realities sink in. Theresa May acknowledged on her trip to Japan that the best trade deal we could possibly achieve is the one we already have inside the EU. Meanwhile, the arithmetic of the general election has weakened the government’s mandate for its extreme Brexit. The question now is what this means for the balance of pro and anti-Brexit forces.

On Europe, parliament no longer divides on purely party lines

There are four main groups. Driving Brexit are hard line Brexiteers on the Tory back-benches, represented in the Cabinet by Boris Johnson and Liam Fox, and a small number of like-minded MPs on the Labour side who have an ally in the Shadow Cabinet in Barry Gardner. In the opposite corner are Liberal Democrats who question how we could secure a better deal outside the EU than the one we currently enjoy. But in the middle are two pivotal groups who need to find their voice – because they have the power to change Britain’s course for decades.

One of these groups is on the Conservative side. They are soft remainers, concerned that their party risks its decades-held reputation for being the party of business. Philip Hammond, Chancellor, has argued that the loss of free access to the single market and customs union would be economically calamitous, and that a transitional deal is essential. However, Hammond’s commitment to a transitional agreement is weak with the single market and customs union ending in 2019 with Britain retaining only an arrangement which mimics the current structures but isn’t part of them.

The i politics newsletter cut through the noise Email address is invalid Email address is invalid Thank you for subscribing! Sorry, there was a problem with your subscription.

On the Labour side are a similar group of soft remainers who question why Jeremy Corbyn has supported May on Brexit, when it is the EU that protects workers, human rights and the environment. They want to put backbone into Labour’s opposition to the government. Keir Starmer, Labour’s Brexit spokesperson, has announced support for membership of the world’s largest market during a transitional deal. But this involves the UK accepting the disciplines of the single market while having no say on them. And after the transition there is no clarity about whether we stay in the single market and customs union or leave. There are many Labour remainers who see Labour leadership’s has made a small movement towards them but the unity is fragile.

We shall see over the next few weeks whether this summer of repositioning amounts to much. It is possible that tentative groping towards a ’soft Brexit’ in parts of both Labour and Conservative parties represents a genuine realisation that leaving the Single Market and Customs Union will be very damaging. If so I and my party are happy to work constructively with them in parliament to find a way of averting disaster.

Brexit will always be damaging

But the kinds of compromise being advocated won’t work: it simply puts off the day of reckoning. Kicking the can down the road is not a strategy. At some point soon the choice of a very damaging Brexit and rethinking the whole project will have to be faced. The idea of giving the public a vote on the outcome of the negotiations, with the option of an ‘exit from Brexit’ may seem increasingly attractive.

While the party leaderships work out what to do in the long term, divorce negotiations are proceeding and all signs are that they are going badly. It would help greatly if the issue of citizenship rights and the right to remain were removed from the negotiations. The government should unilaterally agree to guarantee the right to remain of EU citizens already here. The current tactic of using them as bargaining chips is proving counterproductive: heightening the insecurity of British people in Europe; and leading to a brain drain from the UK of some of our most talented workers. This is where parliament can hopefully find its voice as we go back to work.