This is what happens with these weekend predictions. We use a bunch of metrics and tools and think we have it right, and then Butler beats Cincinnati by double digits. Sure, we finished 3-1 last weekend but that’s the kind of toss-up game you want to hit.

We’re aiming for perfection this weekend.

Last week: 3-1

Overall: 5-3

No. 7 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Kentucky (at Las Vegas), 5:45 p.m. ET, Saturday, CBS: On Dec. 3, the buzz at Rupp Arena died a slow death as UCLA’s diversity and depth emerged against then-No. 1 Kentucky in the first half of its upset victory in a building that hadn’t hosted a losing effort in more than two whole seasons.

While Lonzo Ball went cold -- a rare display for the talented freshman -- and committed five turnovers in the first half, the crowd at Rupp Arena began to notice something they might not have anticipated prior to the game. Early in the game, there on the right block, T.J. Leaf pump-faked with Bam Adebayo’s hand in his face, drove right and scored.

It seemed too easy.

Roy Williams and the Tar Heels secured a five-point win the last time these teams met, on Dec. 14, 2013 in Chapel Hill. Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Leaf, Ike Anigbogu and Thomas Welsh finished a combined 14-for-21 inside the arc that day. Ball answered questions from the postgame dais. But the frontcourt trio helped the Bruins leave Lexington with that victory too.

On Saturday, North Carolina and Kentucky will play fast. Don’t blink. Don’t take a break before halftime.

This could be the most exciting game of the season thus far.

At some point, it will become clear that Kentucky’s unit inside could evolve into one of the nation’s nastiest frontcourts by March.

But North Carolina’s dogs in the paint are ready now. The nation’s top offensive rebounding team will win on second-chance points and dominance in the post. Tony Bradley is one of the top big men in the country and he’s just a freshman. Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks have played in dozens of intense scraps in the paint -- battles some of Kentucky’s young frontcourt contributors will experience for just the second time in their young careers.

Another loss will help the Wildcats in the long run. They’ll learn and evolve. The Tar Heels will, however, win a thriller this time -- they’re just more advanced right now -- as we await the start of an intriguing ACC season.

Prediction: North Carolina 97, Kentucky 93 (overtime)

Texas A&M vs. No. 19 Arizona (at Houston), 12 p.m. ET, Saturday, ESPN2: Is Texas A&M the best two-loss team in America? With apologies to Wisconsin and Xavier, it’s a valid question about an Aggies squad that’s separated from the top 15 by two late-game slumps. Robert Williams gave Texas A&M a 62-55 lead on a jump shot with 3:57 to play in a Nov. 18 matchup against USC. His squad was outscored 10-1 down the stretch in a loss. Against UCLA three days after Thanksgiving, Texas A&M had a 63-62 lead with 3:28 to play, but the Bruins won after finishing the contest on a 12-4 rally.

Time for a change.

Williams, D.J. Hogg and Tyler Davis anchor the frontcourt unit of a squad that can’t buy a 3-pointer (29.3 percent) but will throw a bunch of rugged, big bodies at an understaffed Arizona squad and win.

Prediction: Texas A&M 68, Arizona 66

No. 21 Notre Dame vs. No. 15 Purdue (at Indianapolis), 2 p.m. ET, Saturday, ESPN2: Notre Dame had an 11-point lead in the first half of its loss to No. 1 Villanova on Saturday and a six-point lead midway through the second half. But Josh Hart continued to do that Chuck Norris in “Lone Wolf McQuade” thing and put together a 37-point performance that preserved his team’s flawless record.

But Notre Dame’s 58 percent clip inside the arc would have helped the Fighting Irish beat most teams.

Here’s why they’ll beat the Boilermakers on Saturday: Notre Dame is too good to allow any team to run away in a neutral-site, in-state-bragging-rights matchup. In a close contest, the nation’s best free-throw shooting squad (86.4 percent) is a safe bet.

But Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan is a game-changer. Per hooplens.com, Purdue scores 1.18 points per possession (versus 1.12 PPP) and allows only 0.86 PPP (versus 1.04 PPP) when he’s on the floor. The problem? He has collected four or more fouls in four games this season. Will foul trouble harm him and his team on Saturday?

Prediction: Notre Dame 78, Purdue 74

No. 18 Butler vs No. 9 Indiana (at Indianapolis), 5 p.m. ET, Saturday, BTN: Before we get to this prediction, it’d be nice to see Tom Crean, Chris Holtmann and Indiana’s other Division I coaches on one stage challenging California (USC, UCLA, Saint Mary’s) to a "Best College Basketball State in the Country" pickup run on a neutral-site playground before league play.

Butler and Indiana are linked by state residency and the Scott twins. Fort Wayne’s Bryson Scott and Indiana State’s Brenton Scott led their teams’ respective nonconference upsets of Indiana and Butler earlier this season. Butler (Cincinnati by 10) and Indiana (North Carolina by 9) both followed those losses, however, with impressive top-25 victories.

They’re both top 50 in 3-point percentage, and nearly 40 percent of their shots come from beyond the arc.

Two good teams in a great matchup. But OG Anunoby will return on Saturday after missing time with a sprained ankle. He’ll help the Hoosiers protect the 3-point line and attack the basket in this exciting affair.

Prediction: Indiana 78, Butler 74