This year's European club final is due to be staged in Twickenham in May but the non-English feel to this year's Heineken Cup grows ever stronger. For the first time there will be five sides from the Pro 12 in the last eight, with just two from France and one, Saracens, from the Premiership. If the English are to progress any further, they will have to reverse the prevailing tide.

There is at least one glimmer of optimism, with Saracens assured of a semi‑final on home soil, possibly at Wembley, if they can win their quarter-final against Clermont Auvergne, currently set to be played at Vicarage Road. The downside is that Leinster, the defending champions are favourites to defend their title, will almost certainly provide the opposition unless Cardiff Blues become the first Welsh team for 13 years to win a Heineken Cup tie in Dublin.

With Munster, who finished as top seeds by virtue of their 36-51 win in Northampton on Saturday, due to entertain Ulster, at least one Irish province is already guaranteed to make the last four. Given Edinburgh, last-gasp bonus point winners over London Irish, and Saracens are also guided by former Irish internationals, Michael Bradley and Mark McCall, there is no question which home union has the momentum entering next month's Six Nations championship. In terms of sheer bristling passion, the Munster-Ulster game could also be the stand-out tie when the quarter-finals come around in early April.

Scotland will be similarly buoyed by Edinburgh's achievement in securing the country's first home knock-out tie. Not for eight years have the Scots been represented in the last eight and Toulouse's defeat in Gloucester on Friday night will not have gone unnoticed. When the dust finally settles on a fluctuating pool phase, the failure of the French sides to gain more than two knock-out spots, their second-worst return in the tournament's history, will also be a matter of intense debate.

The same is already true on this side of the Channel where an inquest is already rumbling. One representative in the last eight equals the Premiership's worst-ever return, excepting those years in which they did not compete. The picture is not much rosier in the Challenge Cup, where only London Wasps will be hosting a quarter-final. Harlequins have qualified among the three back-door qualifiers from the Heineken Cup but must now go to big-spending Toulon. Exeter Chiefs, whose recovery from 14-0 down to beat Perpignan 31-14 on Saturday was another fine example of Devonian spirit, must now roll up their sleeves again at Stade Français.

According to Mark McCafferty, Premiership Rugby's chief executive, the root of the problem is that the English and French clubs have to expend too much energy on the home front to target Europe as successfully as the Celts are clearly doing. He believes it is unfair the majority of Pro12 sides qualify automatically for Europe's elite competition and can also rest players more easily because there is no possibility of relegation.

"Our view is that Heineken Cup qualification should be based on league form," said McCafferty. "There are three of those – the Aviva Premiership, the Top 14 in France and the Pro 12 – and you should take the qualifying teams from the best sides in those leagues. Then it's a completely meritocratic system. This season the 24 teams in the six Heineken Cup pools are made up of 11 from the Pro 12, six from France and seven from the Premiership. It should be eight across the board."

Given the European Rugby Cup voting structure, where the Celtic unions and Italy hold the balance of power, that is unlikely to change any time soon. For all the English protestations, it is hard to argue they are at a disadvantage in terms of squad depth with, say, Edinburgh, who topped Pool Two and beat London Irish both home and away. Treviso, who gave Saracens a scare in the final round of pool games, are also a growing force, particularly at home. The cold reality is that too few Englishmen are rising to the big European occasions on a consistent basis. Harlequins, Gloucester and Northampton all had their moments but, ultimately, Bath, Leicester and Irish all suffered pool campaigns they would mostly prefer to forget.

Whether this has a knock-on effect in terms of the Six Nations remains to be seen. England's players will meet up for their first training camp under the caretaker coach, Stuart Lancaster, this week uncomfortably aware that Scotland, their opening opponents at Murrayfield on Saturday week, scent blood. Andy Robinson's comments over the weekend that he found England to be "arrogant in their approach" at last year's World Cup have simply ratcheted up the intensity a further notch or two.

Wales will also have to regroup amid the ice-chambers of Spala in Poland where the national squad are based this week. It is three years since more than one Welsh region reached the last eight and the Ospreys' heavy defeat in Biarritz was another worrying indicator. Unless the balance of power shifts radically, there could even be an all-Irish final at Twickenham on 19 May.