Investors must “seriously consider” what a Donald Trump presidency could mean for the US economy, Nomura’s chief US economist and former Treasury Department official Lewis Alexander writes in a new note to clients.

At this point, it’s almost certain the 2016 election for the White House will be between Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democratic front-runner.

According to Alexander, a Clinton presidency would seem “to offer a degree of continuity in economic policy.” Trump, on the other hand, is an “unknown.”

“We think the heightened uncertainty over economic policy associated with a potential Trump presidency could adversely affect both financial markets and the real economy,” Alexander writes.

In the note, Alexander points out that Trump hasn’t laid out a detailed economic plan. He doesn’t have a well-known group of economic policy advisors. He also doesn’t have a record as a policymaker.

Instead, Trump has made narrowly focused statements primarily on immigration and trade, arguing that those policies have resulted in low wages and few job opportunities for Americans at the benefit of other countries.

Trump has also touted his ability as a “dealmaker” and a “negotiator,” but in some cases his rhetoric sounds more like “confrontational bargaining strategies than policy programs that he would seek to implement in full,” Alexander writes.

All of this can pose a risk to the financial markets.

“Trump’s tough rhetoric on immigration and trade, and his apparent willingness to at least propose disruptive negotiating tactics, could affect financial markets in the run-up to the election. Mexico stands out as a country that is particularly vulnerable to any pullback in the US commitment to globalization. Similarly, the relationship between the US and China is arguably one of the most important bilateral economic relationships in the world, and any disruption there could be significant for China and the global economy,” Lewis writes.

He noted that the US economy is dependent on the global economy and any disruption could have “negative consequences” in the short run.

Then again, it might not be so bad.

"All that said, we think concerns about a Trump presidency should not be overstated. He has stressed the importance of getting things done and has focused more on objectives —'bringing back jobs,' for example—than on policy specifics. The defining characteristic of economic policy under a Trump presidency might turn out to be pragmatism. Trump has focused on some of the adverse consequence of globalization. How far he is prepared to go, and what he prepared to do to 'get a better deal,' remains unclear.”

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Julia La Roche is a finance reporter at Yahoo Finance.



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