THE MANNIFESTO: APPENDIX I, CHAPTER IX

NOTE: If you are desperate to see the TL;DR, scroll down… it is near the table of contents.

In our final essay regarding Tycho Nestoris, I want to discuss the nature of his urgency.

Why was Tycho willing to take such great risks to reach Stannis as fast as humanly possible?

There are several obvious financial reasons, easily understood and reconciled with textual evidence or obvious reasoning.

Yet there is one other reason, both secret and massive, for the Iron Bank’s support, a self-serving power play that the bank can deliver to Stannis on a platter.

Before we address this secret plot, let us discuss the more conventional factors and why they fail to completely explain Tycho’s interests in Stannis.

First, let’s take stock of those aforementioned ‘obvious’ financial reasons:

There is the obvious financial reason: the Iron Bank wanted to secure a new king, someone willing to repay the debts of the Iron Throne.

Then there is the more implicit financial reason: In the previous essay on Tycho (Charity of the Iron Bank), I presented the argument that the Iron Bank also wanted to insure Stannis’s success, as it would be the only way for the king to endure long enough to actually repay the debts. In this case, another reason for Tycho’s hastiness was to provide Stannis with valuable military intelligence. I also illustrated how Tycho produces Theon as part of a major scheme to address the ironborn.

However, there is a concern here. Stannis is right in the middle of a campaign, mid-march. This raises major questions:

Even if Tycho finds Stannis (as he does), Stannis would not immediately benefit from the loans or repay debts for months.

In this case, why rush to meet Stannis on the campaign trail?

Stannis could still die.

Why would a notoriously dispassionate organization such as the Iron Bank extend loans to (or expect repayment from) a man with an uncertain fate?

The Iron Bank has already been screwed by Cersei, who clearly violated contracts. The Iron Bank has no clear assurances that Stannis will comply with repayment.

Would the Iron Bank risk the same possibility with another king? How could the Iron Bank force Stannis’s compliance with their contracts?

The answer to these questions can be reasoned out with a little effort:

The only reason to race to Stannis is because the Bank believes that Stannis can win, despite the evidence to the contrary. This would indicate that the bank has “insider knowledge” or assets that tips the odds in Stannis’s favor. Tycho’s haste indicates that this crucial advantage is of a time sensitive nature. Tycho’s declaration that he cannot trust matters to ravens suggests that any details of such knowledge or assets is extremely secretive.

This would indicate that that tips the odds in Stannis’s favor. Tycho’s haste indicates that this crucial advantage is Tycho’s declaration that he cannot trust matters to ravens suggests that any details of Sure, the bank can (and does) extend loans to Stannis, yet neither party will see the fruits of those labors for months. It does not help Stannis on his northern campaign in the forthcoming weeks and months. If the bank cannot insure Stannis’s survival for the immediate future, Tycho’s travels will be an entirely wasted effort. Thus, whatever time-sensitive the insider knowledge or assets the Bank has is unlikely to be related to loans.

Stannis has virtually no assets, no collateral that the Iron Bank could leverage to ensure the king’s compliance with any established contracts. We know that the bank was screwed by Cersei, and that Stannis can’t even repay Salladhor Saan. Without the introduction of additional factors, Stannis has no apparent collateral to offer to assure that their loans will be repaid. This must mean that there are unknown factors that would act as the collateral, compelling Stannis’s faithfulness to the Iron Bank.

The most logical explanation?

The Iron Bank already has the collateral that would insure Stannis’s compliance with the repayment of debts. They have something that Stannis doesn’t even know that he will urgently want.

Collectively this means:

Tycho was not just racing to Stannis to secure repayment and secure loans. He was racing to Stannis to give the king something (information, assets, etc) that would greatly aid Stannis’s campaign in the forthcoming weeks. The obvious benefit is that by helping Stannis the bank improves the likelihood that debt payments will resume.

The collateral that would compel Stannis’s loyalty would be something extremely compelling, something the king would not risk losing, yet something that he does not currently possess.

This leads me to the central theories argued in this essay:

Tycho raced to Stannis in order to tell him that the Iron Bank held the real Arya Stark.



The Iron Bank may produce Arya for Stannis as a part of their negotiated agreement.

The Iron Bank may have a self-serving motive for aiding Stannis in this fashion.



These are admittedly far-fetched claims, but ones that seem far more convincing once I’ve argued the supporting premises that constitute the remainder of this essay.

Contents

Underground Connections. The likely relationship between the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men. Goodheart and Elephant. Revealing Tycho’s hidden motives, connected to the Faceless Men. The Dismissive King. The implications of Stannis’s changing priorities. Darkside of the Iron Bank. The hidden motives for aiding Stannis in his time of need.

* * *

UNDERGROUND CONNECTIONS

In the claims above I espouse a seeming falsehood: that Arya Stark is held by the Iron Bank. Obviously the readers know this is wrong, Arya is currently with the Faceless Men.

How then could the Iron Bank claim to have possession of her?

This is because the Faceless Men are most likely affiliated with the Iron Bank, perhaps even being an unofficial branch of the bank.

Allow me to explain.

The Iron Mine

Braavos is built on top of an abandoned iron mine. The Iron Bank has its origins in this mine, where the bank stores its incalculable wealth:

Braavos is also home to one of the most powerful banks in the world, whose roots stretch back to the beginnings of the city, when a few of the fugitives took to hiding such valuables as they had in an abandoned iron mine to keep them safe from thieves and pirates. As the city grew and prospered, the shafts and chambers of the mine began to fill. Rather than let their treasure sit idle in the earth, the wealthier Braavosi began to make loans to their less fortunate brethren. Thus was born the Iron Bank of Braavos, whose renown (or infamy, to hear some tell it) now extends to every corner of the known world.

— BEYOND THE SUNSET KINGDOM, THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE

One thing is quite clear: the Iron Bank stores its wealth and treasures in the vast subterranean labyrinth of an old iron mine.

What makes this conspicuous is that the Faceless Men also seem to have their roots sunk deep into the earth under Braavos:

Eighteen steps brought them to the vaults, where five arched passageways spread out like the fingers of a man’s hand. Down here the steps grew narrower and steeper, but the girl had run up and down them a thousand times and they held no terrors for her. Twenty-two more steps and they were at the subcellar. The tunnels here were cramped and crooked, black wormholes twisting through the heart of the great rock. One passage was closed off by a heavy iron door. The priest hung the lantern from a hook, slipped a hand inside his robe, and produced an ornate key. …This stair was unknown to her, however, and that made it perilous. One-and-twenty two-and-twenty three-and-twenty. With every step the air seemed to grow a little colder. When her count reached thirty she knew that they were under even the canals. Three-and-thirty four-and-thirty. How deep were they going to go?

— THE UGLY LITTLE GIRL, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Clearly the Faceless Men are embedded deep within the earth. It is noteworthy that the tunnels ‘twist’ and are not straight like you would expect if a hallway had been excavated for typical foot traffic. What seems clear is that these tunnels were excavated in the same fashion as in mining. Indeed, a simply Google image search for ‘mining tunnels’ will show countless pictures of cramped, crooked, twisting tunnels carved into rock.

It seems perfectly fair to conclude that the tunnels underneath the House of Black and White are also the remnants of an abandoned mine.

Furthermore, we also know that the greatest secrets of the Faceless Men are stored deep in this mine.

You can clearly see the emerging question:

If the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men both use extensive, abandoned mines underneath Braavos, could these mines be connected?

* * *

The Keyholders

In The World of Ice and Fire, we are introduced to the Braavosi elite, known as ‘keyholders’:

Matthar recounts that the founders of the Iron Bank numbered three-and-twenty; sixteen men and seven women, each of whom possessed a key to bank’s great subterranean vaults. Their descendants, whose numbers now exceed one thousand, are known as keyholders to this day, though the keys they display proudly on formal occasions are now entirely ceremonial.

— BEYOND THE SUNSET KINGDOM, THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE

So clearly, the keyholders of old were able to access the mines and vaults of the Iron Bank using special keys. Modern keyholders however appear to be unable to do so.

During Arya’s descent to the inner sanctum of the House of Black and White, we observe something rather distinct about the kindly old man:

Eighteen steps brought them to the vaults, where five arched passageways spread out like the fingers of a man’s hand. Down here the steps grew narrower and steeper, but the girl had run up and down them a thousand times and they held no terrors for her. Twenty-two more steps and they were at the subcellar. The tunnels here were cramped and crooked, black wormholes twisting through the heart of the great rock.One passage was closed off by a heavy iron door. The priest hung the lantern from a hook, slipped a hand inside his robe, and produced an ornate key. Gooseprickles rose along her arms. The sanctum. They were going lower still, down to the third level, to the secret chambers where only the priests were permitted. The key clicked three times, very softly, as the kindly man turned it in a lock. The door swung open on oiled iron hinges, making not a sound.

— THE UGLY LITTLE GIRL, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

The devil is in the details:

An ornate key?

An iron door on iron hinges, in an abandoned iron mine?

A door with a sophisticated lock that clicks three times before opening?

Even though Arya is supposedly in the tunnels beneath the House of Black and White, the events described in this passage are alarming compatible with what we know about the keyholders of the Iron Bank.

Could the kindly old man be a keyholder?

You may be noticing a possible concern here:

TWOAIF said that keyholders and their keys were largely ceremonial nowadays. Doesn’t that prove that the kindly old man’s key could not be a key to the Iron Bank’s tunnels?

The text in The World of Ice and Fire on this subject is exceedingly clever. Let me point something out:

Yes there are over a thousand keyholders now, whose keys are ‘largely ceremonial’ .

. However, there has always been the original twenty-three keys that we do know are functional.

Notice the clever way this observation is concealed in the text, the idea implicit and carefully skirted:

Matthar recounts that the founders of the Iron Bank numbered three-and-twenty; sixteen men and seven women, each of whom possessed a key to bank’s great subterranean vaults. Their descendants, whose numbers now exceed one thousand, are known as keyholders to this day, though the keys they display proudly on formal occasions are now entirely ceremonial.

— BEYOND THE SUNSET KINGDOM, THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE

Observe the emerging parallels:

The Iron Bank’s vaults are protected by locked doors requiring one of twenty-three special keys.

Access to the inner sanctum of the House of Black and White is also protected by a locked door that requires a special key to open.

Given the compelling idea that the Iron Bank’s vaults are connected to the House of Black and White’s sanctum, this suggests two things:

The inner sanctum may actually be inside the Iron Bank’s vaults.

The key held by the kindly old man is one of the twenty-three functional keys to the vaults.

This certainly makes sense. The “cavern of faces” below the House of Black and White arguably contains one of the most vital treasures to the Faceless Men. Given the reputation for the Iron Bank’s security, it makes sense for these treasures to be stored in the Iron Bank’s vaults, if possible.

Of course I admit that these ideas are all predicated on supposition: the hypothesis that the network of caves underneath the Iron Bank and the House of Black and White are connected.

You could certainly doubt the existence of a connection, but the documented similarities make such concerns increasingly unreasonable: despite a lack of overt evidence, a connection between the Faceless Men and Iron Bank seems clear.

Furthermore, a shared network of caverns is not the only factor that implies an accord between these organizations.

* * *

Neighbors on Good Terms

Let’s set aside all concepts regarding mines and keys. There are other significant reasons for the Iron Bank to have an accord with the assassins of the Faceless Men:

Knowing that you share a city with an assassins guild and perhaps even share the same cave network, you would expect any bank to be concerned with their vulnerability, both to assassination and theft. It seems obvious that one of the most obvious reasons to reach terms with the Faceless Men would be to allay these concerns.

The Iron Bank is exactly that, a bank. The efforts of the Faceless Men are capable of vastly damaging the bank’s interests, should one prince seek to have another assassinated. The Bank would clearly desire to have a stake in the operations of the Faceless Men, for financial reasons.

The Iron Bank is also a notorious political entity. Much like how the Faceless men could possibly interfere with the bank’s financial designs, these actions of these assassins are quite capable of derailing political schemes. Again, the bank would seek to have a controlling interest in the operations of the Faceless Men to carefully influence politics.

Finally, consider how the Iron Bank can actually profit from the Faceless Men: by establishing an alliance with these assassins, the bank can further its own goals and use the assassins to handle any obstacles or enemies. The assassins can also be used for intelligence gathering purposes.

There is scant mention of the Iron Bank’s involvement with assassins, but mention nonetheless:

The Iron Bank will have its due, it is said . Those who borrow from the Braavosi and fail to repay their debts oft have cause to rue such folly, for the Bank has been known to topple lords and princes and has also been rumored to send assassins against those it cannot remove (though this has never been conclusively proved).

— BEYOND THE SUNSET KINGDOM, THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE

Now, given the likelihood of shared vaults and the unstated-but-obvious accord that must exist between the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men, isn’t it almost certainly the case that the Bank would use the Faceless Men for any such assassinations?

* * *

Eyes of the Iron Bank

Recall my earlier observation: The inner sanctum may actually be inside the Iron Bank’s vaults.

This would make it clear that the Faceless Men are indeed very much a part of the Iron Bank’s organization, but only in secret.

If this is the case, then that means that resources and information could be shared between organizations.

What does this mean?

The central discovery is this:

Any information gathered by the Faceless Men is shared with the Iron Bank.

Keep in mind my other observation:

If the kindly man is indeed a true keyholder, that means Arya has already been disclosing secrets to a member of the Iron Bank.

Now the remaining premises fall into place.

The kindly old man knows Arya’s true identity.

As a member of the Iron Bank, the kindly old man can share this information with other bankers.

Therefore, its entirely plausible that Tycho could know this information prior to his departure for Stannis.

An analysis of the timeline shows that this is quite possible from the perspective of timing and logistics.

By now I’m sure all that the proposed hypotheses come off as very specious, nice to think about but unlikely to be true. If you’ll allow me, I believe the next section will begin to substantiate the connection between the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men.

<table of contents>

* * *

GOODHEART AND ELEPHANT

When Jon first meets Tycho, he makes a rather bold request:

“There is always a price, is there not?” The Braavosi smiled. “What does the Watch require?” “Your ships, for a start. With their crews.” “All three? How will I return to Braavos?” “I only need them for a single voyage.” “A hazardous voyage, I assume. For a start, you said?” “We need a loan as well. Gold enough to keep us fed till spring. To buy food and hire ships to bring it to us.” “Spring?” Tycho sighed. “It is not possible, my lord.”

— JON IX, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Notice that while Tycho expressed some small concern regarding the ships, he objected much more strongly to the proposed loan.

Why would he be so seemingly amenable to loaning his three ships to Jon?

Why would Tycho risk being delayed on his return to Braavos?

Lending the ships puts them at unnecessary risk given the ever-present storms at sea. Why would Tycho risk his ships in this fashion with so little to gain?

But perhaps most important of all: why would Tycho lend all of his ships? Couldn’t he keep one as a precaution?

This leads me to the central hypothesis in this section:

Tycho knew about the Lysene slavers who were on their way to enslave the wildlings at Hardhome.

Tycho was willing to send his ships to aid in the rescue because of the spirited Braavosi rejection of slavery.

But most of all… The source of Tycho’s knowledge about the slavers was Arya herself.

These facts emerge from the details:

The Lysene Sailors

Arya appears to be the first person to inform the kindly old man about the Lyseni slavers. I apologize for the lengthy citation below, but it spares you from looking it up in the books:

And later three Lyseni, sailors off the Goodheart, a storm-wracked galley that had limped into Braavos last night and been seized this morning by the Sealord’s guards. The Lyseni took the table nearest to the fire and spoke quietly over cups of black tar rum, keeping their voices low so no one could overhear. But she was no one and she heard most every word… …The next morning, when the kindly man asked her what three things she knew that she had not known before, she was ready. “I know why the Sealord seized the Goodheart. She was carrying slaves. Hundreds of slaves, women and children, roped together in her hold.” Braavos had been founded by escaped slaves, and the slave trade was forbidden here. “I know where the slaves came from. They were wildlings from Westeros, from a place called Hardhome. An old ruined place, accursed.” Old Nan had told her tales of Hardhome, back at Winterfell when she had still been Arya Stark. “After the big battle where the King-Beyond-the-Wall was killed, the wildlings ran away, and this woods witch said that if they went to Hardhome, ships would come and carry them away to someplace warm. But no ships came, except these two Lyseni pirates, Goodheart and Elephant, that had been driven north by a storm. They dropped anchor off Hardhome to make repairs, and saw the wildlings, but there were thousands and they didn’t have room for all of them, so they said they’d just take the women and the children. The wildlings had nothing to eat, so the men sent out their wives and daughters, but as soon as the ships were out to sea, the Lyseni drove them below and roped them up. They meant to sell them all in Lys. Only then they ran into another storm and the ships were parted. The Goodheart was so damaged her captain had no choice but to put in here, but the Elephant may have made it back to Lys. The Lyseni at Pynto’s think that she’ll return with more ships. The price of slaves is rising, they said, and there are thousands more women and children at Hardhome.” “It is good to know. This is two. Is there a third?”

— THE BLIND GIRL, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Every detail is right there. Why is this passage important?

If the kindly old man is indeed a true keyholder of the Iron Bank, then its entirely plausible that Tycho could know.

Keep in mind that the ship was seized in Ragman’s Harbor, and the Lyseni sailors were exceedingly quiet. It would appear that the matter of the seizure is not known to the public, and given the Iron Bank’s exclusive use of the Purple Harbor, they are unlikely to be aware of the seizure themselves, unless an informant tells them. Thus Arya was in fact the primary way this knowledge was acquired.

I’ve also compared this data to one of the most comprehensive ASOIAF timelines in existence. Despite the seemingly incongruent chapter ordering in the books, Arya’s discovery of the Goodheart happens about one month prior to Tycho’s arrival, plus-or-minus a week or so.

NOTE: Setting Arya aside, another completely viable possibility is that the Iron Bank and Tycho learned about the slavers via another informant, perhaps at some other, earlier time. Thus if you dislike Arya as the informer or the timing, other valid possibilities exist which don’t invalidate the remainder of the essay.

* * *

The First Law of Braavos

So, even if Tycho knows about the wildlings and the slavers… what would compel him to lend his ships at such great risk?

The answer is that opposing slavery is fundamental to the Braavosi identity, indeed perhaps the most important quality:

And because they had risked their lives in the name of freedom, the mothers and fathers of the new city vowed that no man, woman, or child in Braavos should ever be a slave, a thrall, or a bondsman. This is the First Law of Braavos , engraved in stone on the arch that spans the Long Canal. From that day to this, the Sealords of Braavos have opposed slavery in all its forms and have fought many a war against slavers and their allies.

— BEYOND THE SUNSET KINGDOM, THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE

Thus there is tremendous cultural incentive to prevent additional enslavement. This also helps explain why Tycho would lend all of his ships instead of keeping one in reserve.

* * *

Too Simple?

After negotiating for hours with Tycho, a contract is drawn up. Jon later reviews it:

Tycho Nestoris had left behind a copy of their agreement. Jon read it over thrice. That was simple, he reflected. Simpler than I dared hope. Simpler than it should have been. It gave him an uneasy feeling.

— JON IX, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

As Jon ponders why Tycho was ultimately amenable to his needs, it is clear that he feels Tycho might have seen other benefits to the arrangement. The points argued throughout this section strongly suggest that Tycho sees the contract as a way to help rescue the wildlings.

* * *

It’s all well and good to have presented a compelling argument that Tycho knows about the slavers, but that was not the ultimate goal of this section.

The real goal?

By showing that Tycho almost certainly knew the secret about the Elephant and the slavers…

I have demonstrated evidence of a connection between the intelligence gathering efforts of the Faceless Men and the actions of the Iron Bank.

Thus this was a long, roundabout way of showing that the Iron Bank profits from the information gathered by the Faceless Men.

It is also our first inkling that Tycho and the Iron Bank may be acting on undisclosed, self-serving interests.

Finally we can start to talk about Stannis and Tycho.

<table of contents>

* * *

THE DISMISSIVE KING

Proving that Tycho told Stannis about the true Arya begins with a look at the king’s behavior after their conversation.

The first thing to note is that Stannis doesn’t appear to care one whit about Arya after her rescue. He only mentions her twice in Theon’s sample chapter from The Winds of Winter. In both cases we see his almost lack of interest in the “Arya” he has:

“Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch.” Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. “A true king pays his debts.”

— THEON I, THE WINDS OF WINTER

There’s something…off about his statement:

Stannis comes off as entirely dismissive… Arya is virtually an afterthought.

He doesn’t even call her by name, she’s just “the Stark girl”.

Sending Arya with Massey is a rather dubious decision.

Collectively, his behavior makes virtually no sense whatsoever at all.

First of all, “Arya” is the jewel of Roose Bolton’s claim to the north.

Why send her to Jon when he could very well send her after the forthcoming battle?

Why would Stannis send a dozen of his men, twelve of his horses and two ‘officers’ (Justin Massey and Alysane Mormont), and his most valuable hostage away right before a major battle?

His behavior here is inconsistent with the letter Jon received from Stannis. Stannis’s letter showed a sincere interest in saving Arya and finding her a better suitor. But as we see in The Winds of Winter , Stannis appears to show absolutely no interest in considering suitors. In fact Stannis doesn’t even seem to want to meet “Arya” or afford her any comforts while she is at the camp.

Why would Stannis abandon his seeming interest in finding a suitor for Arya?

Why would Stannis show such disregard for the proper treatment and attention he should afford to Lady Arya?

The notion of finding a suitor is perhaps one of the most insightful elements at play.

Did you know that Stannis originally planned to take Val on his march?

See:

“This had best not be some bastard’s trick. Will I trade three hundred fighters for three thousand? Aye, I will. I am not an utter fool. If I leave the girl with you as well, do I have your word that you will keep our princess closely?” She is not a princess. “As you wish, Your Grace.”

— JON IV, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Notice that at the very moment Stannis decides to leave the wildlings behind, he asks Jon to keep Val. The obvious implication is that prior to the agreement, the king was going to take Val with him.

Why would he do that?

One major reason is pretty obvious: because he wanted to wed her immediately after defeating the Boltons. The purpose was to establish a proper lordship in Winterfell and secure an alliance with the wildlings.

Why then when Stannis has a much more potent bride-to-be does he simply ship her off without much thought?

* * *

Irresistible Bait

So what is Stannis doing with “Arya”?

Recall what I said about Justin Massey’s mission in The Smiler and the Slayer, that Massey’s mission was largely a diversion.

By sending “Arya” with Massey, accompanied by a seemingly small escort, she becomes an enticing target to capture, either en route to or at Castle Black. Thus she becomes yet another false flag that might draw men from Winterfell (see A Page from History for more details).

The method by which this bait becomes valuable is via Arthor Karstark. In the essays Suicidal Tendencies and The Rising Sun of Winter, I describe how Stannis will leverage Arthor to deceive the Boltons.

Note that Massey’s mission leaves while all of the Karstarks are concealed in the village’s huts. Thus when Arthor is sent to Winterfell, he will only have a superficial knowledge that “Arya” was dispatched to Castle Black. This is information that Arthor could share with Roose Bolton.

Stannis expected Massey’s journey to Castle Black to draw Bolton men from Winterfell.

This is how Stannis can further poison the well. By playing dead, Roose may be goaded into dispatching men from the Dreadfort to recapture “Arya”. This would be yet another feint in Stannis’s ploy to weaken the numerical strength at Winterfell.

This would explain why Stannis dispatched her from his army, rather than keeping his prize (and valid heir to Winterfell) close. The diversion was more valuable than keeping her at the village.

It would explain why he sent her with the Massey, the knight of questionable loyalty.

And why she traveled in such small company, considering her value. He anticipated the possibility of her capture.

The extra horses that travel with Massey would confuse Arthor Karstark into believing that the ironborn left with Massey (see Release the Kraken for details).

This is idea is all well and good. But there’s just one major problem:

It would be an immensely risky (foolish?) mistake to conduct such a gambit with a piece as valuable as Arya.

Unless… Stannis knew Arya was fake.

* * *

Why Tell Stannis?

Remember what I said at the beginning:

Stannis is a poor king with a grim fate, holding no collateral or even ability to repay loans.

Possession of the true Arya Stark is the game-changer here.

Quite simply, Stannis greatly desires a valid heir to occupy Winterfell. All things considered, Arya Stark is the only remaining candidate (unless you consider Sansa).

The Iron Bank is in a position to simply give her to Stannis. You can see how this is both the collateral and incentive:

Stannis would be forced to agree with the Bank’s terms and pay in order to acquire his valid heir. Otherwise the Bank could ‘produce’ Arya at any time and contest Winterfell’s occupants.

Stannis would have no choice but to meet their demands in this regard.

Such an extortionist arrangement is perfect, and it establishes why the Iron Bank would elect to support Stannis.

Knowledge about the fake Arya allows Stannis to use Jeyne Poole to his advantage as previously speculated, for immediate military aid.

It also prevents him from making strategic missteps based on thinking that Jeyne was Arya.

It also allows him to better command his men, the northerners in particular who were wild with impatient desire.

* * *

What I’m ultimately getting at in this section is that something happened to Stannis to dramatically change his interest in the Arya Stark he currently possesses.

This shift seems to occur in close temporal proximity to Tycho’s meeting with the king. We know that Tycho has access to information procured by the Faceless Men. Thus he may know about the true Arya. Subsequently, Tycho may likely have told Stannis about the true Arya.

Keep in mind the extortion-like relationship this creates. The Iron Bank is perfectly poised to aid Stannis, but only because they have something he wants.

If you look at Stannis’s emotions and words in Theon’s sample chapter its quite clear that the king feels like he is being extorted: he compares Tycho to a pirate shaking him down, and implies that the Iron Bank is figuratively sucking his blood. The subtext is obvious, Stannis feels completely screwed.

Why is this interesting to me?

Because you must consider that Stannis was aware of the debts of the Iron Throne.

The guy was the Master of Ships for years and sat on the small council. He knew of the financial status of the kingdom.

Further, he was present when Robert assumed the throne. The Iron Bank most certainly contacted them at that time to discuss loans previously held by the Targaryens.

The point is this: Stannis most likely knew he was going to be assuming those debts. How could he not?

Thus his anger, his sense of being extorted, was about something else entirely, something unexpected.

* * *

Interestingly enough, Jon has some curiously relevant ruminations on the idea of safeguarding Arya in Braavos:

The best solution he could see would mean dispatching her to Eastwatch and asking Cotter Pyke to put her on a ship to someplace across the sea, beyond the reach of all these quarrelsome kings. It would need to wait until the ships returned from Hardhome, to be sure. She could return to Braavos with Tycho Nestoris. Perhaps the Iron Bank could help find some noble family to foster her. Braavos was the nearest of the Free Cities, though … which made it both the best and the worst choice. Lorath or the Port of Ibben might be safer. Wherever he might send her, though, Arya would need silver to support her, a roof above her head, someone to protect her. She was only a child.

— JON VIII, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Oddly relevant considering that Arya is already sheltered (indirectly) by the Iron Bank, with a roof over her head and someone to protect her.

<table of contents>

* * *

DARKSIDE OF THE IRON BANK

You may yet think that there is poor rationale here, or unfettered speculation. There probably is. I could be entirely wrong, having used an early premise that undermines the entire essay. Opinions obviously vary and I respect that.

In particular:

You might find that Tycho talking about Arya is a pretty trivial detail.

You may doubt that the Iron Bank can reasonably turn a profit through the exploitation of Arya Stark.

But most especially, that Arya would not willingly return to Westeros.

Well… ahem. Let me point something out:

Arya no longer has her face. It’s currently in the inner sanctum at the House of Black and White.

There is some debate over whether or not a person’s face is removed when they don another in the sanctum of the Faceless Men. Some argue that the description of donning the ugly girl’s face suggests that the face is worn on top of a person’s skin, or that only the faces of the dead are in the sanctum. I disagree, I believe that a person’s face is indeed removed when she becomes the ugly girl.

I believe the following passage makes it clear:

That night they gave her back the face of Arya Stark.

— THE UGLY LITTLE GIRL

NOTE: Rather than argue this point further, I will save the evidence and reasons for the comments if necessary.

The idea that Arya’s face was taken off has significant implications.

Another Faceless Man might be able to don Arya’s face.

Thus any of the Faceless Men could pretend to be Arya.

Now think about this:

The waif spent a great deal of time learning about Arya and physically resembles her as well.

Observe:

He never told her his name. Neither did the waif, the little girl with the big eyes and hollow face who reminded her of another little girl, named Weasel.

— ARYA, A FEAST FOR CROWS “She will teach you,” said the kindly man as the waif appeared outside her door. “Starting with the tongue of Braavos. What use are you if you cannot speak or understand? And you shall teach her your own tongue. The two of you shall learn together, each from the other. Will you do this?”

— ARYA, A FEAST FOR CROWS

Think about it:

Isn’t it very interesting that Arya and the waif played the ‘lying game’, wherein the waif ended up learning a great deal about Arya’s life.

Isn’t it interesting that the waif was thirty-six years old and had never learned the Common Tongue? Why then was the kindly old man suddenly so interested having her learn it from Arya?

Thus it seems entirely plausible that, when the time comes to produce Arya for Stannis, the Iron Bank can instead send the waif, to advance whatever agendas that profit the bank.

This is a tremendous example of how the Iron Bank can possibly position itself to secure the stability of its political, financial interests in Westeros.

Not only would the waif be Arya Stark, but she’s an expert poisoner.

The Bank would be poised in a perfect position to control major elements in the north.

* * *

Another brief point is that the vast majority of intelligence that Tycho could have provided to Stannis (as described in Charity of the Iron Bank) could not have been known at the time of Tycho’s departure from Braavos.

Thus whatever “insurance” the Iron Bank assumed would aid Stannis’s campaign derived from intelligence that could be gathered by its agents (as theorized in Desperately Seeking Davos), locally or abroad.

* * *

To summarize the entire essay, I would say the following:

If Stannis can claim to possess the ‘true’ Arya and simultaneously invalidate the ‘false’ Arya (Jeyne Poole), he engenders a dramatic power play in the north.

If you couple this huge opportunity for the Iron Bank with how the ‘true’ Arya Stark can be used to exploit Stannis, then you have all of the ingredients necessary to understand why Tycho was so hurriedly interested in contacting Stannis:

The Iron Bank wanted to enact its plot before Stannis failed!

Thus, securing repayment of debts was only a partial reason for Tycho’s ‘adventure’.

I’d like to end this essay with an eerily apropos excerpt:

She has to remember her name. When the tip of her nose turned black from frostbite, and the one of the riders from the Night’s Watch told her she might lose a piece of it [her face], Jeyne had wept over that as well. “No one will care what Arya looks like, so long as she is heir to Winterfell,” he assured her.

— THEON I, THE WINDS OF WINTER

I don’t take this to mean anything serious, its just possibly some oddly relevant text.

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<the mannifesto>

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