Indeed, when you study what moment could take out each candidate, the role of these states cannot be understated. Already Iowa has eliminated Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, and Rick Perry from the race. New Hampshire ended the efforts of Lindsey Graham, Lawrence Lessig, and Lincoln Chafee, where all three campaigned the most, but never took off.

Iowa and New Hampshire do not pick presidents. What they have done in the past is winnow the field and point the way on a few options. With a field that still includes 16 major candidates between both parties, Iowa and New Hampshire could do a lot of winnowing.

After all of the talk about Iowa and New Hampshire ceding their political clout to the national media and the biggest political donors, a month before the voting begins it is possible that both states could retain their biggest traditional role.


Here is a look at the places where, if the candidates perform poorly, they could be forced out of the race. Some candidates (like Jeb Bush) have the money to continue even amid many early losses. Some (like Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz) will also likely continue until the convention so their team can build a political infrastructure for their brand of politics in all 50 states.

But many candidates will be eliminated after a specific contest because they said they would win it and would be hard to make up momentum to continue on if they didn't (see: John Kasich, Chris Christie and Rand Paul in New Hampshire).

So here is the decision day for each of the major contenders for president (in no particular order):

Republicans

Jeb Bush -- Florida

Donald Trump - *

Chris Christie - New Hampshire

Ben Carson - Iowa

Marco Rubio - "SEC primary" in the South

Carly Fiorina - New Hampshire


George Pataki - New Hampshire

John Kasich - New Hampshire

Rand Paul - New Hampshire

Jim Gilmore - New Hampshire

Mike Huckabee - Iowa

Rick Santorum - Iowa

Ted Cruz - convention

Democrats

Hillary Clinton - convention

Martin O'Malley - Iowa or New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders - convention

This means that, including those who have already dropped out, Iowa could eliminate six candidates. New Hampshire could end the presidential dreams of nine candidates. Together that means that 15 of the 23 candidates who ran for president could be wiped out by the first two states.

That number could be larger. First, there is the issue of Trump. No one is quite sure how Trump's campaign will end -- if it will. It is possible that even a second-place finish in Iowa will mean that Trump, for personal reasons, calls it quits. He might even drop out before Iowans caucus if it looks like it will go down that way. It is also possible that Iowa and New Hampshire deliver a one-two punch of third place finishes. (Then again Trump could win both states.) Because it is so unclear what moment Trump's campaign hinges on for elimination, I did not include him as eliminated by either state.

Second, there is O'Malley. He has invested more staff and focus in recent weeks on Iowa. Logistically it might be that he needs a big moment in Iowa to continue on. That said, as long as he still makes the debate stage in New Hampshire (and there currently isn't a Democratic debate scheduled) he might not drop out until New Hampshire delivers a knockout blow.


James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell. Click here to subscribe to his daily e-mail update on the 2016 campaign.