In terms of prediction models for forecasting, they say the simplest model is often the best. For example, no matter how many variables are studied in the crazy world of the stock market, very few models out-perform those that simply look at recent stock prices to predict future prices.

Using this theory, the AFL Bluster has run analysis on the last 20 years of AFL ladders to create a forecasting model to predict the finishing positions for 2016.

Many of the model's predictions seem fine and dandy, but there are few eye-brow raises worth discussing. Here is 2016 ladder as predicted by the model:

Fremantle - the model predicts the high finishing to continue for Freo this year. I think it would be a very impressive effort to pull off two years on top, but we have seen over the last 20 years that "premiership windows" are staying open for longer. Think Brisbane in the early 2000s, Geelong 2007-now, Hawthorn 2010-now and Sydney who have finished in the top eight 13 of the last 14 years.

Hawthorn - it would be a brave model to predict a fall from grace at this point.

Sydney - based on the last 14 years, its understandable that the model has them lingering in the top 4 like a bad smell. I however don't see this happening...

Geelong - recent history shows that when Geelong drop out of the 8, they don't stay out for long - and that's exactly why the model has shown a return to the big-boys club in 2016 for the Cats.

West Coast - similar to Geelong but in reverse - we've seen the Eagles charge up the ladder one year, only to fall all the way to bottom again next year. Hence the tentative prediction of 5th from the model, despite the pundits predicting their momentum to grow. Time will tell here. I'm not convinced.

Adelaide - very hard to gauge where this team is at. The model has them continuing to climb, but not by much.

Western Bulldogs - similar to the Crows in a lot of ways, I'm very interested to see if either of the clubs can build on what they started last year.

Kangaroos - they have hovered between 7 and 13 for the past 8 seasons. The model has them in there again. It would be surprising to see them fall outside of this range.

Port Adelaide - the model has not been as quick to pencil them in for finals as the experts have been. Probably fair enough - history has shown it is difficult to regain momentum after a stutter. Another year of heart-ache? Let's hope so.

GWS - a very smooth upward trend is predicted to continue for the babies (still?) of the competition. The same was thought of Gold Coast though, so be careful here.

Richmond - this was a very interesting one. The Tigers were starting to show something last year and had some good momentum towards the end of the season. The model has about as much faith in that continuing as those who have seen this all before. How savvy this model is.

Collingwood - "stop the rot" appears to be the order of the year. I think the model is spot on there.

Essendon - ah, the benefit of knowing what's actually going on. The model is predicting the trend to reverse for the Bombers and the climb up the ladder to begin. It could be forgiven in thinking this as the Dons rarely stay down the bottom for long. It will be a tough ask with half a team of amateurs. Good luck.

Carlton - again, the dignified recent history of the club has the model predicting a bounce-back, of sorts. The rest of us expecting another heavy-weight of the competition to be playing the part of anchor this year.

Melbourne - set to make it 10 straight years without a finals appearance, unless the model is severely wrong. They have averaged a finishing position of 15th over this time period, and hey-presto, this is the prediction for this year. Boooring.

Gold Coast - had a nightmare season last year and the model is again playing on the "hard to regain momentum" trend that is prevalent over the last 20 years. We agree. They had their chance, now its time to rebuild... already?

Saints - looking at the trend-line for the last 6 years, it would be easy to believe that they have hit their bottom and are now yo-yoing back up. The model thinks not.