In Jake Arrieta's last three starts for the Chicago Cubs, he has allowed nearly as many runs (15) as he has thrown innings (16 1/3). His “best” start in that stretch was against his first opponent in the second half: the New York Mets. In that start, Arrieta lasted 5 1/3 innings and allowed four runs.

How the Mets beat him last time

The Mets hit Arrieta hard on July 2 at Citi Field. Their five hard-hit balls against him were tied for his second-most in a start this season. It was one of three starts this season where a team had a hard-hit rate of at least 20 percent against him.

Arrieta had poor command in the start, and the Mets made him pay. New York was 4-of-8 with a home run and a double against pitches thrown in the middle third of the plate. Four of the Mets’ five hard-hit balls against Arrieta came against pitches in that location.

Is it possible his slider is back?

In our last preview, we noted how Arrieta’s slider had started to get away from him. Despite his struggles against Pittsburgh, his slider spin rate was up to 929 rotations per minute, higher than his season average.

Against the Mets in the start prior, it was a season-low 682 rotations per minute. The low spin rate helped New York enjoy a 3-for-5 day with two walks in plate appearances to end in the pitch.

The key number for Arrieta on his slider spin rate is 1,000 rotations per minute. When he averages at least 1,000 rotations per minute on the pitch, he has a 1.80 ERA and four scoreless outings. In 11 starts when he doesn’t, he has a 3.36 ERA.

The presence of Céspedes

Yoenis Céspedes hasn’t faced Arrieta much in his career, but he is 3-for-11 with a double and homer against him. Just before the break, Céspedes strained his right quadriceps. He's 0-for-6 in two games since returning.

Whether or not he is fully healthy changes a lot about the lineup Arrieta will have to face. Céspedes is the only qualified hitter on the Mets’ roster with an OPS above .800.

Either way, the Mets ranked in the bottom 10 in the majors in OPS and runs per game in the first half.

Round three against Syndergaard

Arrieta will face Noah Syndergaard for the third time on Tuesday as each makes his first start since July 8.

In their first meeting, Syndergaard was making his major league debut, but Arrieta got the better of him, allowing one run in eight innings while striking out 10.

The second meeting came in Game 2 of the 2015 NLCS. Syndergaard went 5 1/3 innings and struck out nine, while Arrieta had an uncharacteristic start, allowing four runs in five innings, including a two-run home run in the first inning to Daniel Murphy.