Fire Randy Carlyle or stay the course?

Patience or impatience?

Maple Leafs general manager Dave Nonis will face a decision, whether it’s this week or this summer, that will determine Carlyle’s fate.

This is a head coach with an impeccable track record who simply can’t get this particular group of players to play his way.

The Leafs lost their eighth straight game in regulation on Saturday at the ACC against the Red Wings. Their playoff hopes are slim to none.

The decision could come down to an MLSE boardroom battle between Nonis — who preaches patience — and MLSE president and CEO Tim Leiweke, whose impatient approach to Toronto FC is already paying dividends.

“Tim (Leiweke) is an impatient guy, and you have a patient guy in Nonis,” says Richard Peddie, the former CEO of MLSE.

“Nonis is not afraid to say no, he is his own man. Patience meets impatience.”

What do you think?

In the business world, firings are a bit more sophisticated than the sports world, says Peddie. There are written evaluations and annual performance reviews, stated goals either met or missed and perhaps sales results. Weaknesses are identified and corrected.

“If problems persist, you’re let go,” says Peddie, who tried and failed to get that kind of business model introduced to his teams.

“My regret is I could never get my two presidents (the Leafs’ Brian Burke and the Raptors’ Bryan Colangelo) to evaluate their people. I believe what I was trying to get done in a sophisticated, thorough manner was not the norm in sports.”

In the sports world, it’s not as simple as: ‘Win, and you keep your job, lose and you’re fired.’ There are internal politics and external pressures. In the world of sports, hirings and firings instead come down to complicated human relationships.

“In fairness to the coach, have you given him a team?” asks Peddie. “Does the team work together? Have we done everything around the coach to help him?

“If there is an error that coaches make in basketball and hockey, it’s that they don’t always surround themselves with the best assistant coaches. They often hire their buddies. I have a fear that’s because maybe they don’t want to hire someone who could threaten their job.”

So what would convince Nonis to either fire or retain Carlyle?

Money’s not an issue, as it might be with other teams. The Leafs can afford to eat one salary while paying top price for another.

The Star called some current and former general managers — who requested anonymity — to find out at what moment does a GM realize change is better than staying the course.

To one GM, the equation was simple: How much of a chasm is there between Nonis’s expectations of the team and its reality? And how much of that gap is the coach and how much was simply unforeseeable?

“You don’t know what players are dealing with,” said the GM. “Are they under-performing because of the system or the coach or because their wife is having a baby? Or their girlfriend is having a baby and she’s not supposed to be.

“There are so many factors that come in to play that are not necessarily the coach’s fault. Those are all things that have to be considered.”

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A former GM says it’s rare that a coach’s system is to blame, adding the time for change is obvious if the players are tuning out the coach.

“It usually comes down to players not buying into the coach’s message any more,” he said. “Coaches are all smart, they adapt. Coaches can adapt to personnel. You get to a point that the message isn’t being understood but it’s not being acted on.”

There was unanimity that change for the sake of change was a bad idea, as is reacting to fan pressure or listening to the media.

“Pressure from external is something you’re aware of, but you can’t make decisions based on that,” he said. “When you’re on the inside, you know a lot more than what people know on the outside. I know in the Toronto market, it’s ridiculous the amount of feedback people give.”

To a Leaf rival in the Eastern Conference, firing Carlyle would be a mistake.

“If you have a great goalie that carries the team, then the coach looks good, probably better than he is,” said the current GM. “If you don’t have a good goalie that can win you games it doesn’t matter who the coach is.

“Look at what Toronto is going through. I like James Reimer, but the pressure of playing in Toronto. They need a hot goalie down the stretch, that’s what makes the difference.”

This GM believes that firing Carlyle now — in the hopes of getting a boost into the playoffs — could affect the future of the team.

“It appears (getting a boost) is the way it works, but I’m not sure it does,” he said. “They are building towards trying to win a Cup. Are they the odds-on favourite if they get in this year? No. Sure, anything can happen, but if they are considering making any kind of change it has to be for the overall big picture.

“We all talk about making the playoffs. To me it’s not about making the playoffs, it’s about building towards winning a Cup. If they are making a change, then it’s ‘Who is the next best coach to take them to closer to winning the Stanley Cup?’

“Would I (fire Carlyle) just to get in? No, I wouldn’t do it.”

The general consensus was for Nonis and the Leafs to stick with Carlyle.

“When we fire a coach, we hire a coach that was just fired by someone else,” Peddie adds. “I’m a great believer we’re not near patient enough with coaches. In my tenure, I would say the same thing. We had way too many coaches, especially in basketball.

“Like that old quote says: ‘When you start listening to the fans, you’ll soon be sitting with them.’ Right now, it’s a feeding frenzy. People are seeing blood on the floor.

“It’s unfortunate.”

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