LONDON’S relocation specialists and employment lawyers have never had it so good. Not that they are advising clients on how to set up in Britain’s capital. Quite the reverse: they are busy advising businesses and individuals on how to get out, and where to go if they have to leave.

More than a quarter of employers surveyed by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), an industry group, say that their workers from European Union countries are considering leaving Britain. Financial-services firms, which are among the most vulnerable to a “hard” Brexit outside the EU’s single market, are dusting off their contingency plans to relocate jobs and offices. A tenth of the companies surveyed by the CIPD are thinking of moving some of their operations outside Britain; a further 7% say they are likely to focus on building their businesses overseas.

This does not indicate a wholesale Brexodus. But it does suggest that many firms, having hoped for the best after the referendum last year, are now preparing for the worst, especially since Theresa May’s speech on January 17th. This set Britain on course for life outside the single market and customs union. The next day the chief executive of HSBC announced that he was preparing to move 1,000 of the bank’s staff from London to its offices in Paris. Most of the hard decisions about relocating jobs will be taken over the next six months, on the assumption that Britain will leave the EU in early 2019.

The beauty contest between Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin and others trying to lure the City’s high-paying, tax-yielding jobs is hotting up. For these would-be capitals of European finance, the prize is a share of the 1.1m people who work in financial services in Britain (rising to 2.2m if jobs in supporting industries are included). These workers pay 12% of Britain’s taxes and generate an annual trade surplus of £55bn ($69bn).

The French have been the most assiduous in courting the City. Europlace, the Parisian equivalent of the Corporation of London, has set up a committee dedicated to advertising the virtues of Paris under the slogan: “Tired of the fog? Try the frogs!” Arnaud de Bresson, the head of Europlace, argues that Paris already has the largest concentration of corporate headquarters in Europe, so the bankers would be closest to their clients. He also points to measures that were introduced after the Brexit vote to make Paris a more attractive destination. The “inpatriates” regime, which reduces by up to 50% the amount of tax paid by people hired outside France, has been extended to cover migrants for their first eight years in the country, up from five years previously. Corporate tax has been trimmed from 33% to 28%. (Britain’s rate is 20%, and due to fall to 17% by 2020.)

Frankfurt is also vying for jobs, although in a more low-key way. Most of London’s banks already have a strong presence there, so it would be relatively easy to move jobs. Frankfurt is also in the middle of Europe’s biggest economy. Dublin shares the same language as the City, and a similar legal system. On January 24th it hosted the European Financial Forum, where a Citigroup executive said his bank had discussed relocating jobs with the authorities in Ireland, as well as those in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Brexit poses risks to Dublin, however (see article). And big American banks might simply repatriate jobs to New York once London no longer offers the advantage of being in the single market.

But as Suzanne Horne, an employment lawyer at Paul Hastings solicitors, points out, there are good reasons why so many businesses and workers came to London in the first place. Banks look aghast at France’s extensive and intrusive labour laws. It is trickier and takes longer to hire and fire people. Workers’ councils, unknown in Britain, have to be negotiated in France and Germany. There are cultural differences, notes Ms Horne, citing France’s “right to disconnect” law, passed on December 31st; it is difficult to imagine City bosses allowing their serfs to ignore e-mails out of hours.

In short, most City firms and workers would prefer not to move if they can help it. But they may not have the choice.