GOP appears in deep trouble in California CALIFORNIA As registration sinks in state, fewer areas safely Republican

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger talks with reporters about the Legislature's failure to reach a solution to the state budget deficit, outside his Capitol office in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2008. The Legislature failed to approve a Democratic budget package which included $8.1 billion in budget cuts and $8.1 billion in new revenues.(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli) less Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger talks with reporters about the Legislature's failure to reach a solution to the state budget deficit, outside his Capitol office in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2008. The ... more Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, AP Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, AP Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close GOP appears in deep trouble in California 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

With their registrations sinking and their political clout withering, California Republicans have come out of the November election in danger of slipping into political irrelevance across much of the state.

"There's been a broad repudiation of traditional conservative Republicans in California," said Tony Quinn, a former GOP analyst and co-editor of the California Target Book, which focuses on political contests in the state. "There are almost no areas in the state that can be considered safely Republican anymore."

Since 2004, Republican registration has dropped by more than 317,000 in the state, while Democrats have picked up 563,000 new voters. Five previously GOP counties, including San Joaquin, Stanislaus and San Bernardino, now have more Democrats than Republicans.

Things aren't any better in the Legislature, where Democrats hold commanding majorities in both the Assembly and state Senate. The Democrats picked up three seats in the Assembly last month, including the last partisan post held by a Republican in the nine-county Bay Area.

And with Democrats moving to eliminate the two-thirds majority requirement for passage of a state budget, the GOP could lose the last bit of real power it holds in the Legislature.

Ron Nehring, chairman of the state Republican Party, doesn't paint nearly as grim a picture for California Republicans, especially in the wake of the pasting the party took across the nation in the Nov. 4 election.

"In a year where all the externals favored the Democrats in California, they came away with little to show for it," Nehring said. "They won a net three seats in the Assembly, but didn't pick up anything in the state Senate or Congress."

In addition, Democrat Barack Obama's sweep in the presidential race cost Republicans big across the West. The GOP lost House seats in Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Idaho, along with Senate seats in New Mexico, Colorado and Oregon.

"Just holding the line was a real accomplishment this year," said Steve Frank, a Republican consultant who runs the conservative California Political News and Views blog.

Republicans, however, had to hold that line in places where there shouldn't have been a battle. Nehring, for example, pointed to the GOP success in electing state Sen. Tom McClintock to a Northern California congressional seat and in fighting back a strong challenge to Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona (Riverside County).

But McClintock, one of the state's best-known Republicans, beat Democrat Charlie Brown by only about 1,800 votes in the strongly conservative Fourth Congressional District, where the GOP has a 14 percentage point registration advantage.

Eked-out victory

Calvert, an eight-term incumbent who won with 60 percent of the vote in 2006, barely eked out a 6,000-vote victory this time.

Obama's 61 to 37 percent victory over Republican John McCain in California - along with the Democrat's 72 percent support among voters aged 18 to 34 - added to the party's worries about the future.

In 2010, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger will step down as governor, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer will be up for re-election and the entire slate of constitutional offices will be on the ballot, along with the usual mix of legislative and congressional seats. A Democratic sweep would be a disaster for Republicans, and party leaders know it.

"The party has a lot of rebuilding to do," said state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a likely candidate for governor in 2010. "The Republican brand has been tarnished across the country, and we have no one to blame but ourselves for not standing true to our ideals, like accountability and keeping spending under control."

The biggest advantage for Republicans in the next election is that the Democrats - and the voters - won't have George W. Bush to kick around anymore.

"Everything about Bush and (Vice President Dick) Cheney turned off residents of California, not just Democrats but also independent voters," Quinn said.

The growing Democratic strength in California is going to force Republicans to look for different types of candidates, he added.

"Individual Republicans can win if they can self-finance (their campaigns), be socially libertarian and fiscally conservative," Quinn said. "That means they can't be hostile to gays and need to be at least moderately pro-choice."

While plenty of Republicans won't be so fast to write off strong conservative candidates, Poizner, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and former San Jose Rep. Tom Campbell, the three names most mentioned for the GOP governor's primary in 2010, all are Northern California residents from the party's moderate wing.

Poizner and Whitman both are former Silicon Valley business people wealthy enough to pay for their campaigns.

Structural changes

Structural changes also are needed to bring the party back into serious contention in California, said Nehring, the GOP party chief.

"We need to pay more attention to local races, putting aside the quaint notion of 'nonpartisan' offices," he said. "There's no such thing as a nonpartisan office in California. Every office is an opportunity to put Republican ideas into action."

Poizner wants to see the party improve its grassroots efforts and focus on a message of rebuilding California's economy through job growth, innovation and entrepreneurship, an agenda he believes has an appeal beyond Republicans.

"There's no question Republicans have hurt themselves," he said. "If we continue on the same path, we will become a one-party state."