California GOP meets amid federal shutdown worries Some worry D.C. stalemate will hurt their chances in midterm elections

Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the state GOP convention's star attraction. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the state GOP convention's star attraction. Photo: Ted Soqui, Special To The Chronicle Photo: Ted Soqui, Special To The Chronicle Image 1 of / 3 Caption Close California GOP meets amid federal shutdown worries 1 / 3 Back to Gallery

Anaheim --

With new polls showing Americans overwhelmingly opposing the government shutdown - and blaming the GOP for the stalemate now heading into its fifth day - California Republicans gathering for a statewide convention here appeared torn and worried about its impact on coming midterm elections.

"It's a disaster in a way, but it kind of had to be done," said Brian Chuchua, a convention attendee from Anaheim. "It may cost the Republicans some votes."

The reaction came as hundreds of Republican activists, candidates and volunteers descended on the Anaheim Hilton for a three-day convention dubbed "Rebuilding from the Ground Up" - a statewide gathering designed to explore how the California GOP can rebound from a decade of declining registration and statewide election losses in California, now a solidly blue state.

But the ongoing shutdown in Washington, D.C., was a top-of-mind conversation everywhere at the convention, as many were wary of how the political impact of the closure would reverberate across the country to California, where Republicans hold no statewide offices and boast only 29 percent of its registered voters.

A CBS poll this week found that 72 percent of Americans disapproved of shutting down the government over opposition to the Obama administration's Affordable Care Act. The poll found that 44 percent of the respondents blame Republicans in Congress, while 35 percent lay more blame on President Obama and the Democrats.

Shouldering blame

With no end in sight and the government shutdown affecting national parks, scientific research and federal functions across California, state GOP activists confronted new evidence that their party is being assigned a larger share of the blame for the deeply unpopular move - driven largely by Tea Party conservatives in Washington.

"Is there even an endgame to it?" wondered Matthew Del Carlo, a San Franciscan who is active with the California Young Republican Federation. "We have to ask what we want out of this."

What isn't doing either party any favors, he said, is that the stalemate shows "how the sausage is made" in Washington.

Assemblyman Rocky Chávez, R-Oceanside (San Diego County), thinks the Republicans in Washington are hurting themselves by trying to derail the health care law through the budget process. "We already had an election on this (last November), already had the Supreme Court weigh in.

"My feeling is that if we let the Affordable Care Act play out, people will see how terrible it is and it will be a lot better for (Republicans)," Chávez said. "People will see how much it's going to cost them, and they're going to say, 'What?' "

Robert Jeffers of Santa Maria, a member of the state party's Tea Party Caucus, said, "While I don't think shutting down the government is good politically or good for the American people, the big issue here is the national debt. And as ugly as it may get, they are doing the right thing."

Some were more measured. Former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, who is running for governor in 2014, said, "It amazes me that people in Washington can't come together and move the country forward. That's why there is no confidence in government and why small businesses have no confidence in government."

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is the convention's star attraction and will address the gathering Saturday, declined to criticize his party's strategy in Congress, but dismissed the stalemate as another sign of Washington's dysfunction.

"We shouldn't look to the gridlock in Washington, D.C., for a way out of our fiscal mess - we need only to look to the states," Perry said.

But some political professionals with longtime Washington connections - like former John McCain 2008 presidential pollster Ed Goeas - said it is too early to tell whether the initial poll numbers will stick.

"The numbers may favor the Democrats now, but you have to look at the intensity of how each side feels," said Goeas, who just joined Maldonado's campaign team.

1995 shutdown

Rick Tyler knows the impact of such stalemates as a longtime adviser to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Also now an adviser to Maldonado, Tyler pointed out that the 1995 shutdown that occurred on Gingrich's watch as speaker was followed by four years of balanced budgets and billions pared from the federal budget deficit.

As for the post-shutdown impacts then, Republicans held their majority after losing eight House seats in the 1996 election - even though back in November 1995, the numbers were even worse for Republicans than they are today. Then, 51 percent of Americans blamed the GOP and 28 percent blamed then-President Bill Clinton.

"Right now, it's too early to tell what the impact will be," Tyler said.