Between 3,000 and 15,000 people could die from COVID-19 by the time the pandemic is over, even with protective measures in place, according to newly released provincial models.

Projections released by Public Health Ontario on Friday suggest that, with no public health measures in place, that number would be as high as 100,000.

However, Dr. Peter Donnelly, President and CEO of Public Health Ontario says several strong measures have already been taken by the province, including closing non-essential businesses, limiting social gatherings and limiting visitors at long-term care homes.

He says the steps that have already been taken must stay in place to halt the spread of the virus, adding that additional measures could drive those numbers down further.

He says the numbers are only projections and could change based on a number of factors.

Donnelly expects the pandemic to last between 18 and 24 months.

Key highlights from the modelling include:

While COVID-19 impacts Ontarians of all ages, those over the age of 60 face higher risk of severe disease leading to higher mortality rates. The data demonstrates the need to focus public health measures on protecting seniors.

Had Ontario taken no action, the impact of COVID-19 would have risen to an estimated 300,000 cases and an estimated death toll of 6,000 people.

Due to timely public health measures, Ontario has avoided much more dire impacts, preventing an estimated 220,000 cases and 4,400 deaths to date.

Over the course of the pandemic, between 3,000 and 15,000 deaths related to COVID-19 are predicted with current public health measures in place, compared to a total projected 100,000 deaths if no action were taken.

By taking further measures, Ontario can further reduce the number of cases and deaths related to COVID-19 down to projections as low as 12,500 additional cases and 200 additional deaths by the end of April.