While new quarterback Jalen Hurts was indeed 26-2 as a starter at Alabama, there is a dangerous assumption he will simply pick up where Heisman winners and fellow transfers Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray left off before him at Oklahoma. We’re not so sure, considering the record-breaking numbers posted by Mayfield and Murray that helped each become the top picks in the past two NFL drafts.

And the Sooners accelerated pace or not, let’s not forget they ranked dead last nationally in pass defense a year ago. Even though five starters return in the secondary, new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch (over from Ohio State) was tinkering constantly with coverages and possible position switches in spring. For the moment, a veteran defense looms as the strength of the unit, while tackling-machine Kenneth Murray, a middle linebacker, could be the star. Whoever plays on the stop end, the Sooners need to force more than the 11 turnovers they caused a year ago, and let’s not forget that they allowed 40 points or more in five of their last six games a year ago.

Until the issues on defense are solved, we’re not as convinced as we were the past two seasons with Mayfield and Murray that Oklahoma is simply going to outscore everyone again. Remember, it was a very wild ride to get to 11 wins each of the past two years after early-October defeats in both seasons. Another loss to Texas in Dallas, like a year ago, would have the Sooners very precariously perched to reach the 11 wins needed to make the “Over” work. That might be asking a lot.

The play: Oklahoma to go Under the regular-season win total of 10 ¹/₂ (FanDuel).