Elizabeth Warren is now the front-runner

Yesterday’s Civiqs poll for Data for Progress was (probably) the first public poll to show Elizabeth Warren leading Joe Biden, and it does so by a significant margin—30-24 (and Sanders at 14). Whether you buy these results or not—they are definitely outside the current polling consensus of a small Biden lead—there’s no doubt that Warren has been slowly and steadily creeping up into Biden’s personal space. An inflection point has been virtually inevitable, and it’s either happened or is about to happen.

But even if the poll is 100% accurate, fact is, 30% is not exactly dominant territory. In this best-case scenario for Warren, she is still supported by less than a third of Democrats! It wasn’t impressive when Biden sat at 30%, and it’s no more impressive if Warren is there. A third won’t win you any nominations.

Thus, we have to look deeper into the numbers to see who the real front-runner might be. And luckily for us, a new wave of polling has started digging into voters second choices. If a first choice isn’t winning, and in a field of 800, most aren’t, who will voters shift to when it’s time to cast a vote that actually matters?

And it’s on that metric that Warren truly shines.