Newhouse's argument is mostly rhetorical: that voters will turn against Obama because the economy is bad and the race has been close so far. Obama's top strategist, David Axelrod, mocked this analysis on Twitter, saying, "Anyone else find it odd that Mitt's pollster put out a state-of-the race memo this morning that was almost entirely devoid of polling data?" Newhouse does, however, point to a couple of factors working in Romney's favor, such as money and enthusiasm. Many Republicans I talk to also point to the fact that most polls conducted to date are of registered voters, not likely voters; they believe that once the pollsters' "screen" is narrowed to those most likely to turn out, Romney will do better.

But while the race has been close, it's been close so far almost entirely in Obama's favor. The president has led, by a narrow margin, in the vast majority of polling to date. The Republican convention was supposed to be Romney's chance to finally turn that trend around. In the leadup to the convention, GOP strategists and pundits repeatedly stressed how much was riding on it for Romney: It was his biggest opportunity of the campaign to finally convert voters' disillusion with Obama into support for the GOP. Middle-of-the-road voters had soured on the president, I heard over and over, but they weren't ready to put their trust in Romney; with a good convention argument, he could bring them around and start pulling ahead in the race.

Instead, it's now becoming clear that Romney didn't do that. Voters who were unsure about him before the convention are still unsure, or, worse, turned off. Romney will have other chances -- chiefly the three October presidential debates and the ad blitz enabled by his financial advantage. But as things stand, the fact that Romney is still behind after the conventions -- indeed, more behind than he was before -- is a very troubling sign for his campaign.

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