A post-debate poll finds that surgeon Ben Carson has leapfrogged over businessman Donald Trump as the candidate most Republican voters believe will win the GOP nomination.

Rasmussen Reports said that 59 percent of likely Republican voters believe Carson will end up on top after the primary and caucus season is over next year.

He is closely followed by Donald Trump, at 58 percent, Carly Fiorina at 41 percent and Jeb Bush at 40 percent.

Carly Fiorina is also surging. AP Photo

The poll shows the clearest proof that Carson has caught fire, in part due to his debate performances. When he announced in May, just 25 percent of likely Republican voters expected him to win the nomination.

Fiorina also saw a huge surge in voter confidence in her. When she announced in May, just 16 percent saw her as the eventual nominee.

In its analysis of the findings, Rasmussen said, "Jeb Bush is treading water, but Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina appear to have dramatically improved their chances for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. Carson is now in a virtual tie with recent front-runner Donald Trump."

Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at pbedard@washingtonexaminer.com.