Rookie QB Review: Josh Rosen

Let's start with the good: Lamar is as deadly of a running threat as we expected.

Now, this matters. It's a little tongue-in-cheek to say "Let's talk about the good bits" and then skip over passing all together, but the Ravens had an efficient running attack with Lamar at the helm. Given the structure of their team -- below-average receiving weapons, stable of backs, strong defense, struggling rookie QB -- shortening the game with a ground-and-pound approach worked.

And Lamar was a huge part of that. On those plays I just happened to pull above, you see read option, GT Counter Wrap, inverted veer, speed option, and a smattering of other ideas. Lamar's legs moved the chains and scored points on a schemed, predictable basis -- and critically, he protected himself from hits with better frequency than he ever did in Louisville.

That will continue to a big part of the Ravens offense -- for better or worse, I would say the foundational part of the Ravens offense. The training camp visit of Paul Johnson, ex-Georgia Tech head coach and triple option maven, may just be smoke without fire, but again: given the Ravens' roster construction and Lamar's strengths, I'd imagine the triple option is a part of the offense moving forward.

Is this a complete devolution? In a league that perennially sets new volume and efficiency benchmarks for the passing offense, are the Ravens going totally backwards by developing out their running game. Not exactly, in that these option ideas put your best athletes (Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Justice Hill) in one-on-one, space matchups. They force the defense to re-learn a philosophy and play disciplined football. With the variety of schemes Lamar and Co. can throw at you, that's a mighty tough ask.

But the simple reality is yes: if your quarterback can't throw an accurate football and move the ball through the air, then you might get to the playoffs, as the Ravens did -- but you'll never win there. Lamar regressed from his time in Louisville, struggling mightily at all three levels of the field to deliver well-placed balls on time with the offensive structure.

Mechanics has been the primary culprit of Lamar's issues -- but that's just a catch-all buzzphrase, and it needs more context. In Louisville, Lamar was a very narrow-based and upright thrower, who generated a ton of spin and loft with a little flick-of-the-wrist motion, while often failing to set his throwing hallway with his feet and thereby generating no power from the ground up.

This tendency not only followed him into the NFL, which was predictable -- it got worse. Especially when pressured, as you can watch below, Lamar threw with all arm and without directional guidance from his lower body. A gifted natural thrower of the football, Lamar continues to neglect the mechanized aspects of throwing the football -- where talent turns into consistent, predictable accuracy.

When Lamar is inaccurate, this is almost invariably why: he didn't lead step into this throw, so he didn't generate rotation in his hips, so he had to get all of his velocity and aiming from his upper body. That's just a bad formula -- it can work, but it isn't reliable. And as with everything, the incident of pressure makes it trickier.

When Lamar declared for the draft, he was knocked by many as a scrambling QB, who could not hang in the pocket when pressure threatened. He actually has the opposite problem: despite his tremendous escapability, Lamar has tremendous faith in his own arm and ability to throw off-platform, so he remains rooted in the face of pressure and attempts these throws than inevitably end up misplaced because of his mechanical issues. In the 2018 Contextualized Quarterbacking, we see that Lamar attempted 22% of his passes Beyond First Read and 21% Under Pressure, but with only 12% coming out of the pocket. He truly fancies himself a pocket passer, and had some good moments as such.

Lamar has evidently improved some of his mechanics thus far in camp -- it's been a focus for the Ravens in Year 2. I do wonder the extent to which they started working on Lamar's issues in Year 1 -- I thought his drop footwork/timing looked different between Baltimore and Louisville -- and to what degree he regressed back to old habits when thrust into the starting job. It's important to remember that they originally started Lamar because Flacco went down with injury, and kept Lamar as the starter because the team was winning and had returned to playoff contention.

This matters because mechanical adjustments for young QBs take time, especially when that QB is like Lamar, such a natural when slinging the rock. He's done it well and it felt right for years, and now he has to relearn some very intrinsic habits. That process likely began the moment he set foot in Baltimore's facilities -- but the injury to Flacco disrupts that process, and that's where you can invite regression.

So a full offseason is helpful in that Lamar will have more time to improve his mechanical flaws, but as the bonafide starter now, you also can't mess too much with what Lamar does. His inaccuracy wasn't completely prohibitive to your offense's success -- we saw that last year -- and so forcing mechanical changes is a dangerous game. If it goes sour and saps at his accuracy, your team won't compete, and you potentially ruined what was at least a young, functional QB.

Experience as the starter and a year in camp will also help Lamar adjust to the speed of the game, which was his other big issue as a thrower in 2018. Lamar regularly addressed underneath windows off-rhythm and with apparent blindness to squatting zone defenders, which put the ball in harm's way at an unacceptable click. The reality isn't that Lamar didn't see them -- it's the common complaint, that windows close just so much faster in the league, and for rookie QBs, it takes time to adjust to that speed.

It's worth noting that the two biggest issues that Lamar has as a thrower -- which made him the worst thrower of the 2018 rookie class, in terms of their freshman seasons -- are the two most common issues for all rookie QBs. Adjusting to speed and improving college mechanics with NFL coaching are the two hurdles we most frequently see looming for quarterbacks prospects, and that can be both good and bad news for Lamar. Maybe it means the coaching staff was prepared for this multi-year process of developing a rookie QB; maybe it means that Lamar has just the same demons that have already beaten down so many rookies before him. Sophomore year will tell us a lot about that.

As it is, we should expect Lamar to get better as a passer -- slower game, practice with the ones, improved pass-catching options -- and I think he will. He was a better passer than this at Louisville, and an offense built around his intermediate vision, mobility, and live arm will benefit him tremendously. (I know I said he fancies himself a pocket passer, but for the love of Michael Vick, can we get this dude on a rollout?)

We should also expect the Ravens to continue building out a run package that challenges overhang defenders and secondary alley-runners to make space tackles against their elusive athletes. Lamar's running ability and Baltimore's running weapons will help the Ravens stay ahead in games and keep pressure off of Lamar as he continues to grow as a passer.

And finally, we should expect NFL defenses to sit in Cover 3, leave eyes on Lamar from the pocket, and dare him to hit window throws in the seam and between dropping underneath defenders. He's done it before; it's in his bag. But without consistency, the top NFL defenses will take the two throws he makes for the one he misses badly, which turns into a turnover or ends a drive on third down. Consistency is the name of the game for Lamar right now, and with it acquired, he has the physical tools to take a big leap in Year 2.