Top story: Theresa May asks ‘what this house supports’

Hello, I’m Warren Murray, here to give you a confident notion of what’s going on.

Theresa May will face a vote of no confidence today after sustaining the heaviest parliamentary defeat of any British prime minister in the democratic era, with MPs rejecting her Brexit deal by a resounding majority of 230. The prime minister is to begin urgent cross-party talks about a new approach but has not said what this might involve. Jeremy Corbyn will table his no-confidence motion in the government, due to be voted on this evening. The backing of both the DUP and Tory MPs means May is almost certain to win and, unable to secure a general election, Corbyn will face intense pressure to commit Labour to supporting a second referendum. The Tory MP Dominic Grieve will present two bills to the House seeking a people’s vote. Our live coverage of another dramatic day is under way. So far the markets have been subdued and the pound is expected to remain volatile.

Both Brexiters and pro-Europeans are treating the vote as a victory but there is no consensus about its impact. Campaigners for a second referendum are thrilled because they believe it is now more likely. But as May put it: “It is clear that the house does not support this deal, but tonight’s vote tells us nothing about what it does support.” In her statement to MPs after the result, May implied that she was leaning towards a Norway-style soft Brexit by saying she wanted “constructive” talks with Labour MPs. But she also said any proposals must be “genuinely negotiable” and she was committed to delivering on the result of the referendum. Her cabinet is deeply divided on the idea of a softer Brexit, and her party split between dealers and no-dealers. Our editorial argues the PM has no option but to reach across party lines. Jonathan Freedland laments “the sight of a parliament paralysed by indecision … and the spectacle of a country lost and adrift”.

After May’s defeat, Donald Tusk, the European council president, effectively called for the UK to stay in the EU, saying that a departure deal looked “impossible”. The European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, urged the British government to “clarify its intentions as soon as possible”. In France, President Emmanuel Macron said “maybe we [the EU] will make improvements on one or two things but I don’t really think so”. Michael Roth, Germany’s EU affairs minister, tweeted: “Disaster. Too bad. But EU’s door remains open.” The office of the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, warned that a “disorderly Brexit is a bad outcome for everyone, not least in Northern Ireland. It is not too late to avoid this outcome and we call on the UK to set out how it proposes to resolve this impasse as a matter of urgency.”

Nairobi attack – Gunfire and explosions have been heard at a Nairobi hotel complex more than 16 hours after Islamist extremist gunmen launched an attack that is thought to have killed at least 15 people, including a US citizen, in the Kenyan capital. A security source in Nairobi said the operation was “slow and cautious” because of fears that attackers were wearing suicide belts. The interior minister, Fred Matiang’i, had earlier said security forces had secured all of the buildings affected. The attack was claimed by al-Shabaab, the militant Islamist organisation based in neighbouring Somalia.

Midweek catch-up – Some of the other things going on …

> The school inspections system is to have its biggest overhaul in decades. Schools that make less able children leave or “teach to test” to improve league table rankings will risk being punished by Ofsted under plans due to be announced today.

> The use of private exit polls by hedge funds to predict the Brexit referendum result and bet accordingly on the price of sterling may have been tantamount to insider trading, the head of the City watchdog has told MPs.

> DS Nick Bailey, who was poisoned by novichok in Salisbury, is back on active duty. Angus Macpherson, the Wiltshire police commissioner, said: “He will be given all the support he needs.”

> The New Zealander charged with murdering British backpacker Grace Millane has pleaded not guilty. The accused, a man aged 27, has been remanded in custody to next appear in court in April.

> Rahaf Mohammed al-Qunun, who fled to Thailand from her Saudi family and won asylum in Canada, has pledged to “work in support of freedom for women around the world”.

Christie throws book at Kushner – Chris Christie, who was ousted as chairman of Donald Trump’s White House transition team in 2016, has accused Jared Kushner of carrying out a political “hit job” because Christie prosecuted his father, Charles Kushner, a decade ago. In his soon to be published book Let Me Finish, the former New Jersey governor also writes that the president propelled to fame by the catchphrase “You’re fired” seldom does the deed himself. He got Steve Bannon to deliver the message to Christie and later told him: “Chris, you didn’t get fired. You got made part of a larger team.”

Soft rock in a hot place – An artist has left an MP3 player and speakers in the Namibian desert that crank out Toto’s 1982 hit song Africa on an infinite loop. Max Siedentopf, who is Namibian-German, added solar batteries to keep the mellow vibes going day and night at the secret location. “Finding it might take some time,” says Siedentopf, who said the installation was a tribute to “a song that is understood and liked all over the world”. If that’s not enough zen, here is a giant floating disc of ice spinning gracefully to remind you there is unexpected beauty to be found in the world.

Today in Focus podcast: Inside the Brexit rebellion

On a monumental day in parliament, Anushka Asthana is with the Conservative MP Anna Soubry as she works across traditional party boundaries to defeat Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Political editor Heather Stewart explains what happens now. Plus: the Guardian’s Simon Hattenstone on his time following the Leave Means Leave campaign group.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Conservative MP Anna Soubry arrives in Westminster for the ‘meaningful vote’. Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images

Lunchtime read: Trump’s total war on science

It’s not just climate change – Donald Trump’s administration is cutting scientifically proven programmes across the board, from pollution safeguards to teen pregnancy prevention and healthier school lunches.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A protest in Boston against Donald Trump’s anti-science agenda. Photograph: Steven Senne/AP

Experts who have worked in the federal government under Republicans and Democrats say both have sometimes put politics ahead of science but none have done so as blatantly as Trump. And they warn the consequences could continue long into the future.

Sport

Andy Murray has two choices ahead of him: to rest and sign off at Wimbledon in five months or, his preferred option, to have another operation. His mother, Judy, thinks he could play tennis again, although she believes he is still agonising over further hip surgery that would ease his pain while almost certainly ending his career. Johanna Konta could be the last of eight British players left in this Australian Open by the weekend, but she views her second-round match against Garbiñe Muguruza on Thursday with the same equanimity as she would an opponent from outside the top 100.

Arsenal’s grand plans to restructure post-Arsène Wenger have begun to splinter with Sven Mislintat, brought in as head of recruitment, set to leave after deciding his position has become untenable. Joe Root led the way in the first of back-to-back two-day games against a President’s XI in the West Indies with a run-a-ball 87 as England made 317 runs for the loss of 10 wickets. And Manchester City have refused to give Uefa any comment on allegations that they breached financial fair play regulations and misled the governing body because the club argues the claims were based on “hacked or stolen” emails.

Business

Sterling is expected to remain volatile until the result of today’s no-confidence vote in the prime minister is known. It has been trading around $1.286 and €1.127 in the last few hours. China has vowed to take action to support its slowing economy with small business tax cuts and higher public spending, after disappointing industrial production figures and the first drop in car sales for almost three decades.

The papers

This full round-up of the front pages is essential reading today – our usual summary follows.

Grim tidings for Theresa May’s team, with all the newspapers leading on her historic Commons defeat. The Sun is the most creative, pasting May’s head on to a picture of a dodo, with the headline “Brextinct”. The Mirror focuses on the no-confidence motion launched by Jeremy Corbyn, with the splash: “No deal, no hope, no clue, no confidence.” “A complete humiliation,” says the Telegraph.

The Times has “A complete humiliation”, the Express has “Dismay” but doesn’t blame the PM who the paper says “valiantly fought for her deal”. Even the Mail, which is usually incredibly supportive of the prime minister, can only muster: “Fighting for her life”. The Guardian features a rare picture of the No lobby, which is packed with MPs walking through to vote against May’s Brexit deal. The headline is “May suffers historic defeat as Tories turn against her”. The Financial Times’ headline is “May’s Brexit deal crushed by Commons”. The i calls the day’s events a “historic humiliation”.

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