Trump misunderstands NATO so badly, he thinks Brazil could be part of it

For the United States' NATO military allies, a good day is a day when President Donald Trump forgets that they exist.

On bad days, he calls the alliance "as bad as NAFTA," ponders whether its existence could result in World War III and raises questions over its future. Tuesday would likely fall into the category of bad days for NATO, too. Once again, Trump showed that he either doesn't understand the alliance - or in case he does, at least ignores everything he knows about it.

During a news conference with right-wing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Trump said: "I also intend to designate Brazil as a major non-NATO ally, or even possibly - if you start thinking about it - maybe a NATO ally. I have to talk to a lot of people, but maybe a NATO ally."

This might be an interesting suggestion - if Brazil was located somewhere between Greece and Britain. NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization and is a European-North American alliance, which is in many ways tailored to the two regions. To add Brazil, Trump wouldn't just have to "talk to a lot of people," but he would also need to get all NATO member states to agree to change Article 10 of the alliance's 1949 founding treaty, which states that only European countries can join, besides Canada and the United States.

To be fair, others have similarly suggested that it might be time to modify that part of the treaty and open the alliance up to new members, such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand. More than a decade ago, Council on Foreign Relations fellow James Goldgeier wrote that adding new countries from outside Europe could be beneficial, "especially at a time when Europeans are having trouble meeting their own defense commitments."

But unlike Trump, advocates of changing the founding treaty were arguing in favor of a stronger and emboldened NATO. The U.S. president has often appeared interested in achieving the opposite.

While Trump frequently lashes out at European NATO members for not spending enough on defense, granting membership to Brazil would not be seen as a way to correct the balance sheet - but instead as yet another attempt by Trump to disrupt the alliance. Some of Trump's prior remarks have raised doubts over the core principles that underpin the alliance's mechanisms, and any Trump suggestion would be approached with caution by members.

"Unlike every president since 1949, President Trump has been inconsistent and unpredictable regarding his commitment to NATO, leaving allies in doubt. So, suggesting offhand a change that would require American leadership to gain consensus to revise the treaty seems a reach," said Douglas Lute, who was the U.S. permanent representative to NATO between 2013 and 2017.

Even if the founding treaty were changed in Trump's favor, the United States would not be able to add countries by itself, but would need the approval of all other members. Nations such as Germany and France would likely have objections to welcoming a right-wing president who has been accused of attacking democratic institutions and whose polices may violate NATO accession rules.

NATO responded to a request for comment by referring all queries to "U.S. authorities."

Since Trump's inauguration, the alliance has dealt more with questions of financing than with concerns over the state of democracy among its members. In March 2017, Trump set a tense tone for future NATO discussions by accusing Germany of owing the United States "vast sums of money" for NATO, because it spends far less per capita on defense than other allies do.

Experts and government representatives swiftly rejected the criticism, with German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen saying that "NATO does not have a debt account." Unlike what Trump suggested, member states do not pay NATO except for a small logistical budget. Instead, member states commit to independently spend at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense and agree to intervene should any of their allies be attacked.

Many NATO members do not currently meet that threshold. Neither does Brazil.

- - -

The Washington Post's Michael Birnbaum in Brussels contributed to this report.