Republican leaders in Washington are staring ahead at a potentially grim fall, facing the likely loss of Senate control and potentially heavy losses in the House, too. The last thing they need is more drama out of the Capitol weeks from the election to further stoke voter doubts about their Donald Trump-led party.

If it were only that easy.


While Republicans say they’ve cleared the decks for a placid September, with no debt ceiling deadline approaching and no key programs expiring, they’ll still have less than a month to fund the government upon returning Tuesday from their long summer recess. And with competing ideas among Republicans about what to prioritize, and likely resistance from Democrats, some late-September theatrics look almost inevitable.

The biggest wild card is the House Freedom Caucus, whose members are still steamed after the fall of their colleague Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kansas) in an August primary. They blame House leadership for Huelskamp's defeat, and they’re already making merciless demands on Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) that will put him in a real pinch.

One is to force an impeachment vote against IRS Commissioner John Koskinen, which most Republicans privately reject but conservatives are determined to make happen.

The issue has the potential to spill over into the Senate, where several Republicans are fighting for their political lives this election and would prefer the impeachment matter remain on the other side of the Capitol.

The GOP is also under pressure from Florida Republican lawmakers to approve a Zika rescue package — even if it means caving to some Democratic demands. The mosquito-borne virus has spread in Florida since Congress skipped town in mid-July, infecting multiple counties and beaches. And Democrats are launching a political campaign based on the GOP's inaction, specifically targeting incumbent Florida GOP Sen. Marco Rubio.

Despite the hurdles, Republican leaders are confident they’ll be able to shepherd a short-term spending bill through both chambers. And perhaps, if the stars align, the “continuing resolution” will also contain money to combat Zika.

With so much on the line in November, Republicans say they can't and won’t let the government shut down, despite Minority Leader Harry Reid's raising of that possibility last week. Conservatives are even prepared to accept the higher funding level negotiated by outgoing Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and the White House last year — a figure they spent the entire year opposing.

Many Republicans and even some Democrats privately dismissed Reid's shutdown warning, which others in his party have not parroted. But the relative lack of shutdown talk so far is a little disquieting in a Capitol so accustomed to being in crisis mode, some lawmakers say.

“I’m hopeful we can pass the CR, although I am anxious that someone could create an issue,” said senior appropriator Charlie Dent (R-Penn.) “Last year, it was Planned Parenthood. Before that it was Obamacare … I hope we don’t get caught up in one of those situations.”

As it stands now, the biggest sticking point is one of time: How long to fund the government?

Conservative outside groups and the House Freedom Caucus want a spending bill that extends into next year. They worry that a short-term, two-month patch — the standard practice in recent years — would set the stage for a year-end deal-making bonanza during the lame-duck session. And they fret that Republicans would cave to Democrats on the Supreme Court confirmation fight, or advance trade issues they oppose.

Case in point is the Export-Import Bank. Its charter was revived last year with support from mainstream Republicans and Democrats over the protests of conservatives who say it amounts to crony capitalism. The bank, however, has too few board members to fully function, prompting the White House to pen a letter to Congress recently urging lawmakers to essentially enable it to operate without a full quorum. While aides in both parties said the matter is too politically sensitive to take up before the election, it could surface in the lame-duck session.

"Leadership is essentially saying, 'Trust us, we're going to get a great deal — the best deal — in December even though we're going to get creamed in November,’” said Dan Holler, an official at conservative lobbying outfit Heritage Action. “That is not very compelling given their track record even when they had an electoral mandate."

Senate Republicans, who are in real danger of losing their majority, prefer a short funding bill into December. Passing a longer-term spending bill would mean “giving away the store” to Democrats next year if Republicans relinquish the Senate, in the words of one top Republican source. A short fix would allow them to maintain some leverage if that happens — just as Senate Democrats did after the chamber flipped in 2014.

"Our intention is to move a bill that takes us through after the election and into December sometime," said South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the third ranking Senate Republican, on Tuesday. In a chat with reporters Tuesday, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy also suggested a CR into December would be the way to go in order to give Congress more time to finish appropriations.

Senate Democrats are happy to support that strategy, as long as they get some Zika funding out of it, aides said. And many House Republicans also back that plan.

“I don’t know that the conservatives had made a compelling argument as to why that’s better” to extend funding into the next administration, said retiring Rep. Reid Ribble (R-Wis.). “[I]f they’re concerned about who is going to be in charge next year in the White House, that would be the only way [Republicans] can influence policy. Because in a CR you’re only getting a number and continuing the status quo.”

In the House, some appropriators are pushing for so-called mini-bus packages to fund several agencies and departments — Veterans Affairs, Transportation, Energy, Housing — for the entire fiscal year, while leaving other agencies with short-term funding. House leadership is considering that option, too.

Such a split "would be smart,” Dent said. “It would be a terrible shame to just punt [government funding entirely] into the New Year. It would be giving up on governing.”

Zika also figures to play a big role in the funding fight. During recess, both parties blamed each other for Congress’ impasse on the issue, but Republicans are taking the brunt of the blame from angry constituents demanding action.

On Monday NARAL Pro-Choice America is dropping $175,000 on an ad in Orlando and West Palm Beach, Florida criticizing Rubio over the matter. It singles out his opposition to allowing women who have contracted the Zika virus to get abortions. Rubio has said he will "err on the side of life" when it comes to such a "difficult question."

GOP leaders have said they will try to do something that would neutralize such attacks, but the path forward is still unclear. The Senate will vote on a $1.1 billion GOP proposal when they return Tuesday, but that will fail over objections to language restricting health care spending and Obamacare cuts — policy riders Democrats say they simply can’t support.

Many expect the funding to get tucked into the larger, must-pass spending bill, without the pet GOP provisions. Because while Democrats are unlikely to shut down the government over the Zika issue, they’re already promising to crank up the volume blaming the right should nothing make it to the Oval Office.

“We’re going to get some additional funding here by the end of September — I promise,” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) at a news conference last week in Texas, according to audio provided by his office. “I’m confident that money will be coming.”

Amid the funding skirmish, the House Freedom Caucus is expected to force a full House vote the second week of September to impeach Koskinen, the IRS commissioner whom conservatives say lied to Congress. (He strongly denies that.)

Republican leaders and House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) have refused the Freedom Caucus' call to hold a trial for Koskinen. They say he's guilty of incompetence, not a crime. Many Republicans say privately they’re unhappy about being forced to even take a vote on the matter.

And since only a majority is needed to impeach Koskinen, the House is expected to add the ex-IRS chief to the history books as the most recently impeached official.

The matter will get trickier when it goes to the Senate, the chamber responsible for trying — and, with a two-thirds majority — convicting the accused. Staff working on the issue have been wrestling with the question of whether they can just ignore the resolution, but the rules are unclear.

Every impeachment since the nation’s founding has been executed with the near-full support of the party in power. But the Senate, like the House, does not want to take up the Koskinen impeachment.

However, should the Parliamentarian’s office rule that any lawmaker can call the issue to the Senate floor, the chamber could find itself drawn into a political debate they’d rather avoid, with the election weeks away.