South Korea’s exports in August are expected to rebounded into positive territory for the first time in 19 months, a poll found on Monday, mainly aided by smartphone exports and two more working days this year. The poll of 16 analysts forecast August exports would rise by a median 0.6 per cent compared to the same period a year earlier, compared with a 10.3 per cent drop in July.

Monday’s survey was part of a poll on major economic indicators to be released later this week. Exports have fallen since January 2015 amid stubbornly weak global demand and lower prices for oil and other global commodities. Forecasts in this poll ranged from a 7.0 per cent jump to a 5 per cent decline. Imports, on the other hand, were expected to have continued their long declining trend, but at a more modest pace. They likely slipped 3.3 per cent in August from a year earlier, less than a 13.6 per cent drop in July.

“Oil prices have moved similar to last year’s level, which removes negative base effect from oil prices. Moreover, the newly launched mobile phone model started its pre-orders which showed high global demand,” said Kathleen Oh, an economst at Standard Chartered Bank in Seoul, referring to Samsung Electronic Co Ltd’s latest product, the Galaxy Note 7.

Samsung Electronics said last week pre-order results for the new premium smartphone exceeded its estimates, suggesting strong initial sales. Separately, the Reuters poll also forecast factory output in July to slip by 0.6 per cent in monthly terms, worsening slightly from a 0.2 per cent fall in June on weak exports and poor car production. On year, industrial output was seen to have risen 0.3 percent.

Inflation is expected to pick up marginally to 0.8 per cent in August, the poll found, from July’s 0.7 per cent, as agricultural product prices rose on unusually hot weather this month compared to the average in previous years. Industrial output data will be released on Aug. 31, while trade and inflation data will be announced on September 1.

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