Trump's rally in Wildwood scares off NJ GOP moderates, but not Tom Kean Jr. | Stile

State Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr. is planning to trek to Wildwood later this month to join the MAGA-hat-wearing faithful at a rally for President Donald J. Trump.

That's assuming, of course, Kean doesn't get snagged in bumper-to-bumper traffic along the way.

It's a reasonable concern, given what happened the last time Kean was scheduled to appear at an event with a high-profile Republican who was deeply unpopular in New Jersey.

In 2006, Kean, then a U.S. Senate candidate, missed a 6 p.m. appearance at a Newark fundraiser with then-Vice President Dick Cheney.

Asked why he was late, Kean offered one of the great eye-rolling excuses in New Jersey political history. After wrapping up a voting session in Trenton at 4 p.m., Kean said, he drove to Newark on Route 1, with its interminable series of traffic lights, instead of bolting north on the New Jersey Turnpike.

The political world snickered, but Kean avoided having his picture taken shaking Cheney's hand and having it recirculated in attack ads during the fall campaign against Democrat Bob Menendez. (Kean, for his part, denied that he deliberately avoided Cheney and said he hurried as fast as he could to get there.) And the fundraiser also took in $400,000 for his campaign which was ultimately unsuccessful.

Yet Kean, who is running for Congress in the 7th Congressional District this year, offered an emphatic "yes'' when asked if he was attending the Jan. 28 Trump rally in the Wildwoods Convention Center.

But Kean was not eager last week to take questions about his decision to go, questions like this one: Why would he go through such contortions to avoid a photo-op with Dick Cheney yet risk appearing at a red-meat Trump rally?

Trump uses the rallies to vent and rile the right-wing troops by bashing immigrants, spinning unfounded conspiracy theories, leveling misogynistic-sounding attacks on women and even calling the FBI "scum."

It's hardly the kind of event for a moderate Republican to bolster his moderate credentials as he seeks to win in a closely watched swing district.

Trump's Jan. 28 rally — a showcase for Jeff Van Drew, the party-switching congressman who pledged his "undying support" to Trump a day after voting against his impeachment — raises the same complications for moderate New Jersey Republicans that the unpopular Cheney did 14 years ago.

Trump is deeply disliked among independents and Democrats, which imperils the chances of reelection of centrist, more moderate Republicans in a state that has become increasingly Democratic over the last decade.

But they can't afford to openly disavow Trump, either. The president remains popular with Republican voters — a Monmouth University poll in September found that 86 percent of New Jersey Republicans approve of the president. Criticizing Trump could doom their hopes of surviving a GOP primary.

As a result, Trump is forcing many moderates to tiptoe along a political tightrope. Assembly Minority leader Jon Bramnick of Westfield fashioned a formula that helped him stave off an aggressive Democratic Party challenge in November. He criticized Trump for his harsh rhetoric and conduct while endorsing some of his policies, like his positions on trade and deregulation.

"I never appreciated the way he spoke to people, never cared that he called people names,'' said Bramnick, who also fended off a challenge on his right by a duo of independent conservatives who accused Bramnick and his running mate of being too critical of Trump.

Yet Bramnick remains undecided on attending the rally. "At this point, I haven't made any reservations,'' he said.

Veteran state Sen. Christopher "Kip" Bateman is not going to the rally. Bateman, whose legislative district includes the liberal bastion of Princeton and Democrat-rich South Brunswick, believes the backlash over Trump's conduct helped the Democratic Party win majority control of the Somerset County Freeholder Board in November for the first time in 55 years.

"I’m a middle-of-the-road Republican and I don’t agree with all his policies, the way he treats people," Bateman said. "It bothers me."

Kean also fits a similar middle-of-the-road profile, declaring in his kickoff announcement that he's a "Tom Kean" Republican, a reference to his father, the former two-term governor who fashioned an inclusive, moderate Republican brand.

Stile: Whether you know their names or not, keep an eye on these NJ politicos in 2020

Jeff Van Drew: Trump gets valuable ally in blue New Jersey

Bridgegate: From Fort Lee to the U.S. Supreme Court. This is how we got here

And it would seem to make perfect political sense to avoid the rally, given that anti-Trump fever fueled Democrat Tom Malinowski's ouster of Republican incumbent Leonard Lance in the "blue wave" elections in 2018. The district has also become more Democratic. Republicans' 6,700 edge in voter registration over Democrats in 2018 has shrunk to just 1,800.

But there are several reasons that might explain why Kean would make the pilgrimage to Wildwood.

For one, he is facing a primary against Rosemary Becchi, a former tax counsel for the U.S. Senate's Finance Committee, and needs to bolster political and financial ties with the GOP donors who have allied themselves with Trump. The rally might give him a venue to build his network.

"The ability to be in the room with a lot of Republicans ... can be helpful to your campaign,'' said Dale Florio, a Republican lobbyist.

And there is always a risk that snubbing the president during a rare state visit may not go over well with the Republican primary voters who remain solidly in Trump's corner.

Florio also said the fear of a photo-op with Trump is overblown. Democratic operatives will likely craft attack ads linking Kean to Trump even if he doesn't appear at the event. That linkage is almost certainly going to figure heavily in the Democratic strategy this fall.

"All elected officials of both parties are afraid of the visual,'' Florio said. "Voters are smarter than that."

That may be Kean's gamble. But there is still time for him to change his mind. And there is plenty of time to plan his trip to make sure he gets there on time. Google Maps predicts that the drive will take two hours from Trenton if he takes the preferred route — the Atlantic City Expressway to the Garden State Parkway.

Alternative routes could take four to five minutes longer.

Charlie Stile is New Jersey’s preeminent political columnist. For unlimited access to his unique insights into New Jersey’s political power structure and his powerful watchdog work, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: stile@northjersey.com Twitter: @politicalstile