My daily fantasy football advice has largely been sleeper-oriented for much of the year. For the most part, it’s either been somewhat helpful or even spot on. Last week, from top to bottom, I missed the mark.

I wasn’t alone, of course. I ate that Saints chalk, and both Drew Brees and Michael Thomas were terrible. I also wasn’t on some of the top running backs or D.K. Metcalf. I did, however, hit it big with Adam Thielen, while Alvin Kamara, Carlos Hyde, and James White were all serviceable.

It didn’t lead to all of the money, though, so we’re back at it for the 2020 NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs. You can take a look at my favorite NFL DFS sleepers for this round if you’d like, but this preview will take more of a look at my NFL DFS Divisional Round top picks and best lineup.

Top Divisional Round DFS Picks

I went over my favorite NFL DFS value picks earlier in the week, and now it’s time to run through my top pick at each position over at DraftKings.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans ($6.7k)

I like several quarterbacks this week, but does anyone offer a better combination of ceiling, floor, and price? I don’t think so, as Watson dropped 29 fantasy points on a very good Bills defense last week.

He did most of his damage in a little over one half of football, too. Watson can simply burn defenses in so many ways, and he showed that with two rushing scores back in week six against the very team he faces this week.

That helped Watson drop 31 fantasy points on KC, who have made strides down the stretch but still weren’t great defensively as a whole in 2019.

Watson is on the road and in a tough spot, but we don’t need Houston to stage the upset in order for him to pay off in DFS. The odds are good that he’ll be playing from behind and airing it out a good deal. His price tag isn’t accounting for his dual-threat ability enough — not when he’s nearly a full $2k cheaper than Lamar Jackson.

This Chiefs vs. Texans game has the highest total of round two (51 per BetOnline), and Watson is projected to have 13% ownership behind chalkier guys like Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. I love the Chiefs here, but Watson should put up numbers and return serious value.

Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($6k)

I’ll have a tough time figuring out whether or not to pay up for Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry, as Henry has a brutal matchup, and neither of these guys is expected to be playing with a lead.

Our own Michael Wynn does love the Vikings as an upset pick via our Vikings vs. 49ers betting preview, though. If his prediction holds firm, Cook could be a smash play at decreased ownership.

If you do talk yourself into paying up for those guys, you’re likely only rostering one of them. I think Damien Williams is the chalky back you have to roster, though.

Williams proved once again over his last two games (18 and 34 fantasy points) that he has the role and upside to be a real force in daily fantasy football. He has a solid matchup in front of him (Texans rank 28th vs. RBs) and should get plenty of touches both as a runner and receiver.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($7.6k)

There are three stud wide receivers worth paying for this week, and none of them are cheap. My choice of that trio is Hill, who is easily the most explosive option on this entire slate.

Hill wrecked the Texans (25 fantasy points) earlier this year, and that was his first game back from a clavicle injury. His connection with Patrick Mahomes is among the best in the league, and the play is never over when he’s deep down the field.

Houston has had serious issues with stopping the pass, and they really don’t have anyone that can shut Hill down. The Chiefs can hurt you from anywhere with any of their many weapons, but Hill has the best matchup of this game and perhaps the entire slate.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers ($6.2k)

There are three very good tight ends to choose from up top this week, and I’m not sure you can go wrong with any of them. Kittle has the worst matchup on paper, but he also can pay off in one play.

The 49ers will pull out all the stops to advance this week, so Kittle getting a solid dose of targets should be something we brace for. I also like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, but if I’m spending at tight end, the explosive Kittle (16+ fantasy points in four straight games) is my top option.

San Francisco 49ers Defense ($3k)

I like Raheem Mostert this week, and I think the Niners beat the Vikings, so naturally, I also like their defense. The only other defense I’d feel great about is Baltimore’s, as this just doesn’t feel like the week to punt at this position.

San Francisco still gives up some points, but they could be a little more focused after their bye week. Minnesota isn’t an easy matchup, but both of their wide receivers are less than 100% right now, and if they can stop Dalvin Cook, they can stop this offense.

On top of that, the Niners can get a lot of sacks and have forced at least one turnover in 14 of 16 games this year. Something tells me Kirk Cousins takes a step back this week, and San Francisco’s defense should benefit.

My Favorite NFL DFS Lineup for Round Two

You can do whatever you want if you’re entering a bunch of daily fantasy football lineups this week.

Especially when the slate is so small, I tend to just narrow things down to my very favorite plays, assess how I think the games will play out, play some matchups, and also consider ownership to make necessary tweaks.

For better or worse, that leads me to my favorite lineup for the Divisional Round over at DraftKings. Mixing in some of my favorite sleepers and some of my top picks, here’s the team I’ll likely be rolling out this weekend.

QB: Deshaun Watson – Houston Texans ($6.7k)

RB: Damien Williams – Kansas City Chiefs ($6k)

RB: Raheem Mostert – San Francisco 49ers ($5.8k)

WR: Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs ($7.6k)

WR: Will Fuller – Houston Texans ($5k)

WR: Allen Lazard – Green Bay Packers ($4.5k)

TE: George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers ($6.2k)

FLEX: Marshawn Lynch – Seattle Seahawks ($4.8k)

DEF: San Francisco 49ers ($3k)

This is admittedly a pretty chalky lineup as a whole. We only have four games to work with, though, so you’ll have to eat some chalk, take on some mild chalk, and then find a few spots to differentiate without losing points.

One spot where I love the upside and I can differentiate immediately is quarterback. You can punt with one of the quarterbacks in my NFL DFS sleepers blog, or you can save a bit with guys like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or my preferred pick, Deshaun Watson.

As long as you’re not paying all the way up for Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, you’ll be somewhat contrarian here. You just need someone capable of matching or topping their production, and Watson is the most likely in my mind.

You can pair DeAndre Hopkins with him (pivot off of Tyreek with this specific squad), but I like his correlation with deep ball artist Will Fuller. People could be a bit wary of using him due to a groin issue, but I rolled the dice on Adam Thielen last week, and it paid off.

Fuller is too cheap given his upside and currently registers as a contrarian option (roughly 11% projected ownership).

Damien Williams, Raheem Mostert, and Marshawn Lynch are all chalky running backs. They’re also all values and allow me to pay up at QB, one WR spot, and TE.

Beast Mode in particular faces a Green Bay defense that has had major trouble against the run. Pete Carroll has suggested he could feed Lynch more in this game, too.

Williams has the highest projected ownership, but he also has the best matchup. He’s the easiest call of this trio, and he’s a must for me. You could start to get cute from here, either pivoting to guys like Gus Edwards, Travis Homer, and others, or you could just find the funds to pay up for Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, and/or Dalvin Cook.

All of these guys will garner some ownership, however. The problem is they are not cheap, and I honestly don’t like the matchups and game flows for Cook or Henry. They’re calculated fades for me when looking at this specific build.

Tyreek Hill is a great spend to go against my Watson/Fuller stack. He’s a beast and wrecked Houston earlier this year. You should probably pay up for at least one stud receiver, and he makes as much sense as anyone.

George Kittle is my top tight end, and I have no qualms eating his salary. Ditto for the Niners defense, which I expect to find plenty of success in a win over the visiting Vikes.

One more contrarian play is Lazard. I don’t know if the Packers win this week, but he is their number two receiver and one way or another should get a big play or two against a beatable Seattle secondary. He’s also got a great story and is a fun guy to root for.

Marquise Brown is heating up as a super-chalky value play, but I don’t love him. Pivot to Lazard to cut down some ownership.

Summary

There is a good amount of value available to us this week. It feels weird not using guys like Mark Andrews, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Brown at their current price tags.

However, I think eating a fair amount of chalk and then taking 2-3 calculated risks may be the way to go this week. My hope is the ownership only climbs for some of the top studs and they end up disappointing.

That said, Henry and Cook absolutely smashed last week. I also don’t have D.K. Metcalf, who destroyed the Eagles.

But again, this is a small slate, and if you do one lineup like me, you have to take stands, and you can’t have everyone.

You don’t have to take this lineup as it stands, either. Just mix my sleeper picks with my top picks and what I landed on in my favorite lineup. Perhaps that, combined with your own research, is what gets you to the top of a GPP.

Whatever you do, I wish you luck. And if you’d like to try your hand at betting on these games, head over to our NFL Betting Headquarters for some extra advice.