QUEBEC — When Jean-François Lisée won the Parti Québécois leadership in a come-from-behind win, pundits quoted PQ backers saying that they saw in him the candidate with the best chance to defeat Liberal Premier Philippe Couillard.

That was Oct. 7. One month later, a Léger Marketing poll had the PQ under Lisée at 30 per cent, in a virtual tie with Couillard’s Liberals at 31 per cent. Not exactly the kind of post-leadership bounce the supposed dragon-slayer had in mind.

Now a CROP poll, conducted Nov. 16 to 21, has Lisée’s PQ at 24 per cent — down six points from 30 per cent in CROP’s October reading and 11 points lower than the 35 per cent voter intention Pierre Karl Péladeau could claim in November 2015.

Lisée was an outspoken critic of Péladeau, calling PKP a “walking time bomb.” Péladeau stepped down as PQ leader in May and Lisée joined the race to succeed him.

Reacting to the latest CROP poll, Lisée labeled the numbers “suspicious.”

True, pollsters have been off their game recently, having picked the wrong side in both the U.K.’s Brexit referendum and the U.S. presidential election.

Lisée scored 6 per cent in the first poll of candidates to succeed PKP and was in second place, still behind frontrunner Alexandre Cloutier, on the eve of the PQ leadership vote. But this CROP poll has to be worrying for the 58-year-old PQ leader.

Far from being a threat to Couillard’s Liberals — who, at 36 per cent, could easily win another majority government right now — the PQ under Lisée is now trailing Quebec’s third party, the Coalition Avenir Québec under François Legault, with 26 per cent.

And not only is Legault’s party ahead of the PQ overall, the CAQ is also leading the PQ in support among francophone voters, with 31 per cent support to the PQ’s 30 per cent.

On the question of who would be the best premier, Couillard remains ahead in the CROP poll at 24 per cent, with Legault second at 19 per cent and Lisée third at 16 per cent.

Lisée has backed away from identity politics, but now says he plans to unveil a new PQ policy on making Quebec a completely secular state. He insists this new stance has nothing to do with polls. Lisée has backed away from identity politics, but now says he plans to unveil a new PQ policy on making Quebec a completely secular state. He insists this new stance has nothing to do with polls.

More bad news for the PQ: While the Liberals dominate in Montreal, thanks to their 82-per-cent support among non-francophones, Quebec elections are decided in places like Quebec City, where the CAQ now is ahead with 37 per cent, to 27 per cent for the Liberals and 24 per cent for Lisée’s PQ.

In an interview with La Presse a week before the CROP poll was released, Lisée said that he believed Couillard’s Liberals were in decline and the 2018 election would be between himself and Legault. He also asserted that the PQ would win that race because Legault “has no team.”

It has also been observed that the CAQ has no ground game. Unlike the Quebec Liberals and the PQ, which have party organizations across the province, the CAQ relies on Legault’s image to win votes.

Legault claims that weakness is being corrected and the CAQ has also moved to position itself as Quebec’s post-sovereignist party.

Without saying it is federalist (it prefers the term “autonomist”), the CAQ’s position now is that the place of the Quebec nation is within Canada, a Canada that ideally would delegate greater powers to the province.

When Lisée was a close adviser to Premier Lucien Bouchard, he helped recruit Legault to run for the PQ in 1998. Back then, Legault was a fierce sovereignist; today, the former businessman and co-founder of the charter airline Air Transat says the dream is over. Quebecers have chosen Canada.

Bouchard, who had enough of PQ infighting when he resigned as premier and party leader in 2001, encouraged a disillusioned Legault to start a new party after he left politics in 2009.

When Legault formed the CAQ in 2011, a CROP poll gave him a strong lead with 42 per cent, including support from Action démocratique du Québec, which then merged into the CAQ.

In a private conversation at the time, reported by Cogeco radio’s Louis Lacroix, Bouchard said Legault would sweep the province:

“He’s going to take it all.”

Legault, while claiming that he does not comment on polls, said he was “happy” with the CROP numbers. “We are close to the concerns of Quebecers,” he added.

The CAQ will run on “pride, identity and the economy,” Legault said, crediting his party’s growing support to its clear positions on: testing immigrants’ capacity to speak French and adhere to Quebec values; banning public-sector employees from wearing religious symbols; reducing Quebec’s annual intake of immigrants to 40,000 from 50,000 and; boosting economic development.

Lisée closed the gap with Cloutier during the leadership race by playing the Quebec identity card. He has since backed away from that position, but now says he plans to unveil a new PQ policy on making Quebec a completely secular state.

He insists this new stance has nothing to do with polls.

Well, he would, wouldn’t he?

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