CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — After months of anticipation, the 2012 election season finally begins in earnest—first with the much-watched Iowa caucuses the first week of January and the crucial New Hampshire primary the week thereafter.

This heightened attention means that even casual followers of the Presidential Election Year Cycle will begin focusing on how the election should impact the stock market. Ironically, however, they probably will be too late. The strongest year of the Presidential Election Year Cycle is the third year; the months prior to the actual election are, on average, mediocre at best for the stock market.

Take a look at the accompanying chart, which reflects the average path the stock market takes over the four years of the Presidential term. Following the lead of many researchers of the Presidential Election Year Cycle, I defined the years in terms of fiscal years beginning Oct. 1, with the first year beginning immediately prior to the election.

This means that this January constitutes the 4th month of the 4th year. Notice not only that the fourth year as a whole is a relatively unexceptional one for the stock market, but January on average in such years produces a small loss.

I suspect that, on both counts, these results will come as a big surprise to investors. Causal followers of the Presidential Election Year Cycle believe that the year before the election tends to be an especially good one for the stock market. And since January has a reputation for being an especially strong one for equities, they will be expecting the market to be firing on all cylinders this coming month.

They may of course be right. But if they are, it will have nothing to do with seasonal tendencies relating to January or the Presidential Election Year Cycle.

The bottom line: Trading strategies for this coming month should probably be based less on bets about overall market strength and more on idiosyncratic bets on individual securities.

To get an idea of what those bets might look like, I compiled a list of those mutual funds that currently are most recommended for purchase by the advisers on the Hulbert Financial Digest’s monitored list who have beaten a buy-and-hold in the stock market over the last 15 years. They are, in descending order of popularity among these top performers:

—Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX, +1.40%

—Vanguard GNMA VFIIX,

—Vanguard ST Investment Grade Bond VFSTX,