Thomas Ricks has a new book out on Iraq. Here's part of an interview with Ricks:

I actually think 2009 in Iraq is gonna be a lot tougher than 2008, for three reasons:

--Elections in Iraq tend to be destabilizing, and there are three scheduled for this year, with national elections at the end of the year.

--At the same time, large numbers of American troops, who have been keeping a lid on things, probably will be withdrawn. General Odierno says at the end of the book that he thinks things will get dicey at the end of his year and the beginning of next year, when we start pulling out of less secure areas, having already left the more secure ones.

--Finally, NONE of the basic questions facing Iraq have been resolved. Oil revenue is just the most prominent. As Odierno says in the book, the surge created a breathing space, and some Iraqi leaders used that space to move backward.