Angela Merkel is cruising toward another term as chancellor, but the final days of Germany's election campaign are anything but dull.

With just a few days to go, it's still far from clear which coalition will emerge from Sunday's parliamentary election. The makeup of that coalition will determine the personalities and policies at the heart of the EU's most important government for the next four years.

Also at stake is whether the Social Democrats (SPD) will follow their comrades on the center left across the Continent into the doldrums; Germany's international reputation, which will be tarnished if the far right scores well; and the fate of smaller parties that could end up with plum jobs in government or face four years on the margins.

Here are five things to watch in the final stretch of the campaign, on election day and in the days that follow:

1. SPD's limited room for maneuver

The Social Democrats' score in opinion polls has been up and down of late, from 20 percent to 23 percent. Three percentage points wouldn't normally matter. This time they do.

The SPD got 23 percent of the votes in 2009 when Frank-Walter Steinmeier was Merkel's rival, and the party went into opposition.

It scored slightly better in 2013, with 25.7 percent of the votes. However, Merkel launched coalition talks with the Greens, who declined to join her in government. The SPD was waiting in the wings and became the coalition partner.

Anything above 23 percent would make it easier to convince the party base that the Social Democrats should enter a grand coalition again rather than be in opposition. (As former party leader Franz Müntefering once said: "Opposition is crap.")

Any result below 23 percent would strengthen the argument that serving under Merkel is the ultimate way to make the SPD insignificant.

2. Seats, money and power for the AfD

Pollsters don't have much experience with Alternative for Germany (AfD) supporters on a national level. Are people scared to admit they're voting for the far right? If so, are the adjustments the pollsters are making sufficient?

Polls suggest the AfD will become the third largest party in the next Bundestag, with around 10 to 12 percent of the votes. The better they do, the less likely a two-party coalition between Merkel's CDU and either the Free Democrats or the Greens becomes.

That means a three-party agreement (four if you include the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party of Merkel's Christian Democrats) — or another grand coalition with the SPD. To reach a satisfactory outcome could take a long time.

The far-right party finishing third would also be a wake-up call for the establishment and show that the AfD and their supporters cannot be ignored.

3. The Liberals are tempted — but wary

All polls suggest that the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) will be back in the Bundestag after four years in the political wilderness.

The party's raison d'être is to be a coalition partner; they've worked with both the SPD and CDU in the past, but the last time didn't work out so well. After propping up a Merkel government from 2009-2013, they were savaged in the polls and didn't get over the 5 percent threshold required to enter the Bundestag.

Expect an internal debate on the best strategy after they get back in — and expect them to be a difficult partner in any coalition talks. Party leader Christian Lindner has made it clear that he wants the powerful finance ministry for his party. To meet that demand would mean moving incumbent Wolfgang Schäuble to another role. It would also cause concern among European partners such as France.

4. Germany will take its time

Unless the results mean there's only one obvious choice of coalition partner, don't expect party leaders to engage in even pre-coalition talks straight away.

There's another election coming: On October 15, Lower Saxony will elect a regional parliament. Not much is likely to happen before then, particularly if the CDU and SPD decide to go for another grand coalition. You can't schmooze in Berlin while you're fighting in Hanover.

And there's reason to fight: The Lower Saxony coalition of Social Democrats and Greens fell apart after just one MP left the Greens to join the CDU.

5. Internal split between CDU and CSU isn't over

Merkel's main opposition during the refugee crisis came from inside her own camp. Don't expect that chapter to be closed after the election.

The Christian Social Union (CSU) is a political powerhouse that has run Bavaria for most of its post-war history without the need for a coalition partner. The party considers the five years from 2008 that it needed support from the liberals to be an aberration.

For Merkel, getting a Germany-wide result of 35 percent is good enough — it means no government could be formed without the CDU. But the CSU wants a bigger score in Bavaria next year to secure an absolute majority. That means it will still be in campaign mode, even after the national election.