John Wisely

Detroit Free Press

Brooks Patterson seeking a 7th term at the helm of Oakland County.

Vicki Barnett, former Farmington Hills mayor wants more redevelopment in older cities.

Oakland County has been trending Democratic, especially in presidential years.

Hillary Clinton is poised to win Oakland County handily and her coattails are good news for Democrats all the way down the ballot.

But are they enough to topple County Executive L. Brooks Patterson, one of the most enduring Republican names in Michigan history?

►Free Press endorsement: L. Brooks Patterson era should end in Oakland Co.

► Voter Guide: See what the candidates have to say

►Related: L. Brooks Patterson to seek 7th term as Oakland County executive

Patterson says no and history shows he's managed easy wins even while Barack Obama was carrying Oakland twice. But he's never faced a storm at the presidential level like the one he could face this year.

A poll conducted last week by EPIC-MRA for the Free Press and WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) shows support for Republican nominee Donald Trump in Oakland County at 25%, less than half the 51% support Democrat Clinton enjoys. By comparison, Obama carried Oakland in 2008 and 2012 by 14 and 8 percentage points, respectively.

Patterson also faces an experienced competitor, Vicki Barnett, a former Farmington Hills mayor who also served in the state Legislature. He will need ticket-splitting, now more than ever, to earn a seventh term at the helm of Oakland County.

"If you combine the top-of-the-ticket anti-Trump factor, you never know," said longtime political analyst Bill Ballenger. "I just doubt it. I think the odds favor his re-election. It may not be as robust a victory as people expect and there could conceivably be a surprise. I just don't see it."

Mixed coattails

Obama's coattails in 2008 helped Democrats capture their first countywide wins in years with Jessica Cooper becoming prosecutor and Andy Meisner winning the treasurer's race. Four years later, Obama's margin shrank to 8 percentage points, but Clerk Lisa Brown and Water Resources Commissioner Jim Nash joined Cooper and Meisner as countywide winning Democrats.

Patterson and fellow Republican Sheriff Michael Bouchard bucked those trends, winning easily over little-known opponents.

In 2008, Patterson posted a 17-percentage-point win over then-Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence, winning almost 90,000 more votes than his party's presidential nominee that year, John McCain. Four years later, Patterson posted a 14-percentage point win over Kevin Howley.

Patterson, 77, has won 10 elections in Oakland County — four as prosecutor and six more as county executive.

He's known for his acerbic wit and for engineering the county's bulletproof bond rating. He said he has plans for the next four years including continuing to attract high-tech, high-wage jobs to Oakland. He notes that about 20% of county jobs are now related to the medical field.

"We have an economic development program that is changing over from manufacturing to high tech," Patterson said. "We still have some things to do in that area, but the county is in great shape. We're debt free."

Barnett, 62, has an MBA from the University of Michigan-Dearborn. She served eight years on the Farmington Hills City Council, including four as mayor. Barnett said the city was able to balance its budget as state law requires, but also to cut taxes and expand services, despite cuts in revenue sharing from the state. In addition to her political experience, she worked in the private sector as an investment adviser.

She said Oakland County has changed and Patterson hasn't.

Patterson is trapped in an outdated mentality of freeways and sprawl when the growth market is in walkable downtowns and redevelopment of older communities to attract young, college-educated workers, Barnett said.

"We have very different philosophies," said Barnett, who acknowledges she's an underdog because of Patterson's name recognition and fund-raising advantage. Through the August primary, Patterson had raised more than $793,000 over the past four years of this election cycle. Barnett raised about $10,000.

Trump comparisons

The Oakland County Democratic Party sees opportunity in linking Patterson to Trump, mailing a flyer to voters comparing the two under the headline "Embarrassed yet?"

The flyer places quotes from both side-by-side. Patterson's is a crack he made about turning Detroit into an Indian Reservation, building a fence around it "then throw in the blankets and corn."

Trump's quote is about Mexicans "... bringing in drugs. They're bringing in crime. They're rapists."

Barnett said she's not making Trump comparison the center of her campaign, but she understands why others would.

"I think everybody's heard Brooks before," she said. "I don't have to repeat his statements. I think the comparisons are being drawn now because suddenly we have someone at the national level who is saying cringe-worthy statements that we have been hearing for years."

Patterson brushed off the criticism, saying people who know him understand his sense of humor.

"I think the public appreciates candor," Patterson said. "I've always told it like it is. I'm so tired of political correctness, I'm practically gagging on it. I'm never going to be politically correct."

I-75 expansion

The two candidates differ on the necessity of expanding I-75 through the county, a project that's expected to cost more than $1 billion and take more than a decade to complete.

Patterson has long supported the project.

"It's needed. Anyone who travels I-75 knows it's a parking lot," Patterson said. "There are several high accident intersections, that need to be updated."

Barnett said it's too late to halt the project and she agrees that safety improvements are needed. But the projects diverts money from mile roads and other north-south roads like Woodward Avenue.

Barnett points to the rebirth of Downtown Detroit as proof that young workers prefer walkable communities with access to public transportation.

"We can't keep building Oakland County as if it's the 1950s, '60s and '70s," she said. "It's not. We need to start building it for them."

Barnett said she supports the Regional Transportation Authority tax that voters are asked to approve in November will fund commuter rail, expanded regional bus service and a streetcar system in downtown Detroit.

►Related:What you need to know about the RTA millage

"I'm proposing redevelopment around transit hubs," Barnett said. "It would increase property values in our older communities, that really need to have redeveloped without being a drag on the county."

Patterson agreed to have tax question on the ballot, but said he's remaining neutral, noting "there are enough issues in that document to give me concern."

He said a commuter rail service that ran near Woodward until the 1980s died off because of a lack of riders. The new QLINE on Woodward in downtown Detroit needs the regional tax to support it because it can't survive on riders' fares, Patterson said.

"If this proposal doesn't pass, these streetcars are going to to be headed to the Henry Ford Museum," Patterson said. "There is some justification for bus rapid transit and you can design it to go where you need it."

Contact John Wisely: 313-222-6825 or jwisely@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @jwisely.

Other Oakland County races

Prosecutor: Incumbent Democrat Jessica Cooper, a former judge, faces Republican Michael Goetz, a former assistant prosecutor in Oakland County who now prosecutes cases for the Michigan Attorney General's Office.

Sheriff: Longtime incumbent Republican Michael Bouchard, a former state legislator, faces Craig Covey, the openly gay former mayor of Ferndale who has made LGBT issues a key part of his campaign.

Clerk: Incumbent Democrat Lisa Brown faces Republican Bill Bullard, a former clerk whom she defeated by 7 percentage points in 2012.

Treasurer: Incumbent Democrat Andy Meisner faces Republican John McCulloch, a former water resources commissioner who lost his seat in 2008 to Democrat Jim Nash.

Water Resources Commissioner: Jim Nash faces Robert Buxbaum, an Oak Park entrepreneur with a doctorate in chemical engineering.