Thanks are due to Joey Barton for enlivening the dog days of summer, but though a new Premier League campaign is finally upon us it remains difficult to ignore last season's news. Manchester United are now out on their own in terms of league championships garnered, with a ridiculous 12 of the record-breaking total of 19 titles being won on the present manager's watch.

That sort of statistic makes everyone else's arrangements look temporary, no matter how many years Sir Alex Ferguson sails on past his free bus pass. Nothing is ever new these days at United, just about every situation has been seen before, recognised and responded to. The history books indicate that you have to be a certified coaching genius – José Mourinho, or the early versions of Arsène Wenger – to disturb the Manchester monolith, unless you inherit a strong team and get lucky with a United collapse, as Carlo Ancelotti did at Chelsea two seasons ago. Either way, the odds are that you or your success rate will fall by the wayside before long, leaving the master of the long game to make a couple of close-season tweaks and prepare for much more of exactly the same.

All United have done over the summer is freshen up with Ashley Young and Phil Jones, in much the same way that they added Javier Hernández to the mix last season and, though bringing in Wesley Sneijder would allow them to play in a slightly different way in Europe, one suspects the ingredients for another title challenge are in place at the club already. That is because all their domestic rivals are in some form of transition.

André Villas-Boas at Chelsea is not yet established as the new Mourinho. He may be young and promising, but he does not arrive on the back of a Champions League triumph, and his squad is old and more than a little creaky without the energy of Michael Essien. As a general rule it normally takes foreign coaches a good few months, if not a whole season, to adapt to England – Mourinho and Ancelotti won the title at the first attempt, as did Wenger, in his first full season, though these were exceptional feats in exceptional circumstances – and Chelsea appear to be placing a lot of faith in the belief that the eventual arrival of Luka Modric will simultaneously boost their creativity and turn Fernando Torres back into a lethal threat.

Tottenham, even with Modric, cannot be guaranteed to do any better than Harry Redknapp's gloomy prediction of fifth or sixth, and without any European distractions this season Liverpool look more likely to break back into the top four. That's assuming Andy Carroll is as good as Kenny Dalglish thinks he is, Steven Gerrard gets better soon and Stewart Downing, Jordan Henderson and Charlie Adam prove worth the money. It could be a good or even great season for Liverpool, though not even the most optimistic scouser is pitching his sights higher than a top-four finish. Knocking United off their perch is going to have to wait.

The noisy neighbours may appear to be in a far stronger position to get right up United's nose this season, especially if any more signings of the calibre of Sergio Agüero are added before the transfer deadline, yet the simple fact is that City are making their first excursion into the Champions League, while United have been presenting a joint threat in Europe and at home for the past 16 seasons. That makes a huge difference. City will do well, one feels, to hold their own in Europe and requalify for the competition next year, avoiding Tottenham's fate of blazing gloriously but briefly.

That in itself would represent significant progress. While City may be in a position to challenge United for the title were they to make it their sole priority – although Roberto Mancini would need to stamp his authority on the squabbling egos within his squad, determine his best team and prevent the impression continually leaking out that being paid a fortune to live and work in Manchester is some sort of unendurable hardship – experience suggests that Champions League debutants find European highs and lows equally distracting to their attempts to achieve league consistency.

All of which might indicate Arsenal should be United's closest challengers this season. Sadly, almost all of last season indicated the opposite. Wenger is Ferguson's closest counterpart in terms of longevity, and he, too, has become expert at the modern requisite of competing in Europe while staying in contention at home, but without the cash backing and perhaps the scale of United's ambition the Arsenal model operates on slightly lower returns. It is still an incredible achievement to entertain crowds and enjoy Champions League football every year for more than a decade, but Wenger has discovered over the past 12 months that players as well as supporters favour achievements of a more tangible, silver-plated nature, and that six seasons is too long for promise to go unfulfilled. Where Arsenal finish probably depends on what happens in the remainder of the transfer window, though even if Cesc Fábregas and Samir Nasri stay it is hard to look at last season's evidence and conclude that United need be unduly worried.

Where Arsenal did score last season was in giving Barcelona a game, if not exactly a scare. The Gunners won the home leg of their Champions League knockout tie and, though outplayed, were a tad unlucky in the circumstances that led to their defeat in the Camp Nou. They offered more, in other words, than United managed against Barcelona in their past two Champions League finals. No matter how exciting, controversial and entertaining the Premier League manages to be this season, the bottom line is that every leading English club, with the possible exception of Arsenal, are hoping someone else knocks Barcelona out of Europe.

United, in particular, seem to be in denial over what it may take to counter the Catalans' successful brand of possession-based, contact-free football, with players, manager and even the chief executive repeating the mantra that the club simply need to carry on doing what they do best and Europe will eventually be conquered. In reality it may not be, at least not for some time. United have certainly cracked England, where more of the same will almost certainly suffice, but in admitting that his side took a hiding at Wembley in May Ferguson confirmed that the best this country can offer is some way short of good enough. If it is any consolation the same is true of Italy, Germany and the rest of Spain, though the fear is that continental sides will adapt more easily to the tiki-taka style that Fifa's rule changes and refereeing directives have helped foster, while the traditional English virtues of pace, strength and aggressive determination will find themselves out of fashion and out of favour with officials.

And you thought Fifa only discriminated against England when handing out World Cups? At least over the next nine months the Premier League can be relied upon to give the world a show, and if the title ends up at a familiar destination the rest of it remains gloriously unpredictable, even including the top four positions for so long set in stone. Predictions? United top, QPR bottom. Blackburn and Swansea relegated, unless Newcastle make another unnecessary nosedive into the Championship. Liverpool to make the top four, with Arsenal. Wheels to come off slightly at Chelsea and spectacularly at City. Football Association to invite Wenger, rather than Redknapp, to succeed Fabio Capello as England manager. Just guessing.