(Editor’s note: this article has been updated to include the release of more results)

BETTER LATE than never. Better still would be complete. A day after Iowans attended caucuses to begin deciding who should be the Democratic presidential nominee, party officials at last released state-wide results on February 4th—delayed by the crash of a smartphone app for transmitting data from precincts. The figures accounted for only 71% of total returns. Another small batch, released the following day, brought it up to 75%. They appeared to be representative of all Iowa’s 99 counties. Pete Buttigieg, a 38-year-old former mayor from Indiana, has claimed victory. Judged by “state delegate equivalents” so far allocated to each candidate, the usual measure for Iowa caucuses, he scored 27%, narrowly ahead of Bernie Sanders, a senator from Vermont, on 25%. Elizabeth Warren, another senator, was third with 18% of delegates.

Since these caucuses began in the 1970s, it has been said that there are only three “tickets” out of the state. Among Democrats, whoever comes out ahead in Iowa—the first-class ticket—is likeliest to become the nominee. Those who fail to pick up either the business or economy-class tickets, then, can expect to be squeezed out of the primary race in subsequent weeks. That is because the Iowa results help donors and previously undecided voters to settle on who is really a viable candidate; some leading party figures will also decide whom to endorse based on their movements. For less prominent candidates who do well—Mr Buttigieg was hardly known nationally before launching his campaign early in 2019—the bounce in interest and recognition from Iowa should be especially pronounced. His bad luck is that the results came so slowly and chaotically. That distraction could reduce their impact.

The big question is whether there can be a fourth ticket—stowaway class, perhaps—from Iowa this year. Joe Biden, the former vice-president, performed abysmally. The partial results show him picking up 15% of delegates. For a veteran politician who is extremely well known and likes to mention in his stump speech that he began campaigning for national office in 1972, and whose main message is that he is more electable than the other Democratic candidates, that is dire. Even if Mr Sanders overhauls Mr Buttigieg in the final count, the ex-mayor can now tell centrist Democrats they should rally round him, on the grounds that he can appeal to independent voters and some moderate Republicans and thus defeat President Donald Trump in the general election. For those who don’t believe that candidates on the left, meaning Mr Sanders and Ms Warren, could ever win over the electoral centre, that message could prove powerful.

Expectations had been low for Mr Biden in Iowa, but even so he failed to meet them. The candidate, who is 77, looks stiff, tends to ramble before a crowd and often fails to finish sentences. His ground operation in Iowa, and his television and digital presence, were all noticeably less nimble than his rivals’. He also failed to raise or spend as much money as others. His message is mostly about finding a way to return to a more gentle past, which sounds decidedly unadventurous. Nor were alternative measures of the candidates’ viability at the caucuses any better for Mr Biden. On the share of support given by caucus-goers to candidates at the beginning and then the end of the evening, Mr Biden was still fourth (while Mr Sanders claimed first place).

If Mr Biden is left without a decent ticket, how might he manage to sneak aboard? His supporters have several responses. He has long been the front-runner in national polls. Some of his backers say the outcome in Iowa can’t be fully trusted, implying that the delay has cast doubt on their validity. In any case, his campaign has long said to judge him by how he fares across several early primary states, especially those that vote on Super Tuesday, March 3rd. Mr Biden could yet bounce back. He draws heavily on support from African-American voters—a large and influential block of Democrats—who are barely present in early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire, but who count a lot more in Southern states, such as South Carolina, and then later in the general election. Mr Buttigieg, in contrast, barely registers in polls of black Americans and is likely to do poorly in the South. For these reasons, Mr Biden is certain to push on. But voters will look at him with heightened scepticism.

As the race moves on to New Hampshire, which holds its primary election on February 11th, as well as a televised debate later this week, Mr Biden and other moderates will have to decide how long they can last before a winnowing. Mr Biden is competing not only with Mr Buttigieg but also with Amy Klobuchar, a senator from Minnesota who has a record of doing well in Republican-held districts. She came fifth in Iowa, according to the partial count, with 13%, rather more than polls had suggested. After her late surge, she is hoping to hang on and even gain support in New Hampshire. Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire former mayor of New York, is due to enter the race on Super Tuesday and will try to appeal to similar voters. With so many moderates competing, they risk letting the progressive duo, Mr Sanders and Ms Warren, pull ahead. Mr Biden’s argument is that his true strengths will be showing by this time next month. Were he to flop badly again in New Hampshire, he may not have the luxury of waiting until then.

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