For the fourth week in a row, a player has missed a potential match-winning shot with the last kick of the game. Isaac Smith relived his Qualifying Final horror last Saturday against the Cats at the MCG, but he has ample company in Todd Goldstein, Tom Hawkins, and Michael Walters who, over the last month, have all failed to give their sides the win with the most important kick of the match.

Goalkicking is without a doubt one of the most important skills in the game. Wins and losses are routinely decided on it. It seems like barely a week goes by without some ex-player coming out and lamenting the quality of "modern day" goalkicking. I disagree with these sort of takes for a number of reasons (increased intensity, improved defence, and selective memory are among the reasons why accuracy appears to have stagnated), but I'll save that for another time.

Today, I wanted to look at the different ways we can measure goalkicking, how useful these are at measuring the "ability" of different types of players, and which players have the best goalkicking records so far this year.

First and foremost the simple goals and behinds tally. You've read it in the papers, you've seen it on Fox, in fact, you probably have a mate who knows how many goals and behinds your key forwards have kicked this year off the top of his head. But just who has kicked the most goals from their shots this year?

Simple Accuracy (Goals / Scoring Shots)

Here are all 231 players to have taken at least 10 scoring shots this year, sorted by simple accuracy. Ben McEvoy leads the way this year with a simple accuracy of 92%, scoring 11.1 from his 12 scoring shots this year.

Player Club Goals Behinds Simple Accuracy (%) Ben McEvoy Hawthorn 11 1 92 Callum Ah Chee Gold Coast Suns 12 2 86 Mitch Robinson Brisbane Lions 9 2 82 Ryan Bastinac Brisbane Lions 14 3 82 Christian Petracca Melbourne 21 5 81 Drew Petrie West Coast Eagles 11 3 79 Tom McDonald Melbourne 19 5 79 Paul Puopolo Hawthorn 14 4 78 Daniel Menzel Geelong Cats 33 10 77 Dan Hannebery Sydney Swans 10 3 77 Riley Knight Adelaide Crows 10 3 77 Steven Motlop Geelong Cats 17 5 77 Jonathon Patton GWS Giants 33 10 77 Matthew Wright Carlton 23 7 77 Rory Sloane Adelaide Crows 13 4 76 Trent Cotchin Richmond 12 4 75 Tim O'Brien Hawthorn 16 6 73 Will Hoskin-Elliott Collingwood 11 4 73 Lewis Jetta West Coast Eagles 8 3 73 Jack Martin Gold Coast Suns 16 6 73 Blake Acres St Kilda 8 3 73 James Parsons Geelong Cats 11 4 73 Mark Blicavs Geelong Cats 10 4 71 Jacob Weitering Carlton 7 3 70 Wayne Milera Adelaide Crows 7 3 70 Brandon Ellis Richmond 7 3 70 Ben Cunnington North Melbourne 7 3 70 Tom Boyd Western Bulldogs 7 3 70 David Mackay Adelaide Crows 7 3 70 Rory Lobb GWS Giants 14 6 70 Dan Butler Richmond 20 9 69 Marc Murphy Carlton 9 4 69 Nathan Hrovat North Melbourne 11 5 69 Jack Watts Melbourne 20 9 69 Josh P. Kennedy Sydney Swans 11 5 69 Jordan De Goey Collingwood 9 4 69 Tom Scully GWS Giants 11 5 69 Jamie Elliott Collingwood 25 12 68 Andy Otten Adelaide Crows 17 8 68 Lachie Neale Fremantle 13 6 68 Tim Membrey St Kilda 26 12 68 Rory Atkins Adelaide Crows 10 5 67 Jake Melksham Melbourne 8 4 67 Todd Goldstein North Melbourne 10 5 67 Ben Brown North Melbourne 41 20 67 Josh Hill West Coast Eagles 16 8 67 Josh Schache Brisbane Lions 8 4 67 Shaun Atley North Melbourne 10 5 67 Alex Sexton Gold Coast Suns 10 5 67 Eddie Betts Adelaide Crows 41 20 67 Mitch Hannan Melbourne 18 9 67 Nick Riewoldt St Kilda 24 12 67 Jeremy Cameron GWS Giants 41 21 66 Josh Jenkins Adelaide Crows 27 14 66 Eric Hipwood Brisbane Lions 26 14 65 Brandon Matera Gold Coast Suns 22 12 65 Kayne Turner North Melbourne 15 8 65 Sam Reid Sydney Swans 22 12 65 Cameron Pedersen Melbourne 9 5 64 Sam Petrevski-Seton Carlton 7 4 64 Cale Hooker Essendon 27 15 64 Zac Williams GWS Giants 7 4 64 Ben Ainsworth Gold Coast Suns 9 5 64 Tom Hawkins Geelong Cats 36 20 64 Clay Smith Western Bulldogs 7 4 64 Daniel Wells Collingwood 7 4 64 Patrick Cripps Carlton 7 4 64 Ricky Henderson Hawthorn 9 5 64 Dale Thomas Carlton 7 4 64 Charlie Dixon Port Adelaide 33 19 63 Orazio Fantasia Essendon 32 19 63 Lachie Hunter Western Bulldogs 12 7 63 Levi Casboult Carlton 24 14 63 Robbie Gray Port Adelaide 40 23 63 Luke Breust Hawthorn 24 14 63 Devon Smith GWS Giants 12 7 63 Charlie Curnow Carlton 12 7 63 Jeff Garlett Melbourne 32 19 63 Jack Gunston Hawthorn 17 10 63 Joe Daniher Essendon 45 26 63 Nathan Jones Melbourne 10 6 62 Taylor Garner North Melbourne 10 6 62 Jesse Hogan Melbourne 10 6 62 Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti Essendon 25 15 62 Steele Sidebottom Collingwood 13 8 62 Tom J. Lynch Gold Coast Suns 37 23 62 Zak Jones Sydney Swans 8 5 62 Jarryd Roughead Hawthorn 23 14 62 Darcy Moore Collingwood 21 13 62 Josh J. Kennedy West Coast Eagles 37 24 61 Jack Darling West Coast Eagles 30 19 61 Michael Walters Fremantle 22 14 61 Jack Riewoldt Richmond 40 26 61 Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows 41 26 61 Elliot Yeo West Coast Eagles 6 4 60 Jackson Trengove Port Adelaide 15 10 60 James Stewart Essendon 12 8 60 Josh Bruce St Kilda 26 17 60 Robert Murphy Western Bulldogs 6 4 60 James Sicily Hawthorn 12 8 60 Sam Jacobs Adelaide Crows 6 4 60 Callan Ward GWS Giants 6 4 60 Sam Powell-Pepper Port Adelaide 15 10 60 Travis Cloke Western Bulldogs 6 4 60 Tim Taranto GWS Giants 6 4 60 Toby Greene GWS Giants 32 22 59 Toby McLean Western Bulldogs 10 7 59 Jack Redpath Western Bulldogs 10 7 59 Isaac Heeney Sydney Swans 10 7 59 David Mundy Fremantle 10 7 59 Alex Neal-Bullen Melbourne 10 7 59 Patrick Dangerfield Geelong Cats 32 22 59 Nathan Vardy West Coast Eagles 7 5 58 Luke Dahlhaus Western Bulldogs 7 5 58 Tom Papley Sydney Swans 19 14 58 Daniel Rioli Richmond 14 10 58 Adam Treloar Collingwood 11 8 58 Peter Wright Gold Coast Suns 22 16 58 Bryce Gibbs Carlton 14 10 58 Ryan Lester Brisbane Lions 11 8 58 Richard Douglas Adelaide Crows 7 5 58 Liam Picken Western Bulldogs 12 9 57 Tom Cutler Brisbane Lions 8 6 57 Charlie Cameron Adelaide Crows 20 15 57 Jarman Impey Port Adelaide 13 10 57 Patrick Ryder Port Adelaide 8 6 57 Shane Kersten Fremantle 17 13 57 Tom Lynch Adelaide Crows 23 17 57 Mark LeCras West Coast Eagles 23 17 57 Travis Boak Port Adelaide 12 9 57 Will Hayward Sydney Swans 13 10 57 Gary Rohan Sydney Swans 10 8 56 Jason Castagna Richmond 19 15 56 Tom Mitchell Hawthorn 9 7 56 David Zaharakis Essendon 9 7 56 Mason Wood North Melbourne 14 11 56 Michael Barlow Gold Coast Suns 10 8 56 Dayne Beams Brisbane Lions 9 7 56 Dayne Zorko Brisbane Lions 25 20 56 Shaun Burgoyne Hawthorn 10 8 56 Rohan Bewick Brisbane Lions 6 5 55 Cam McCarthy Fremantle 17 14 55 Ben Reid Collingwood 6 5 55 Dustin Martin Richmond 22 19 54 Dean Kent Melbourne 7 6 54 Dyson Heppell Essendon 7 6 54 Jack Ziebell North Melbourne 7 6 54 Bailey Dale Western Bulldogs 7 6 54 Jamie Cripps West Coast Eagles 15 13 54 Travis Colyer Essendon 10 9 53 David Swallow Gold Coast Suns 8 7 53 Brady Grey Fremantle 8 7 53 Aaron Hall Gold Coast Suns 10 9 53 Mitch Duncan Geelong Cats 9 8 53 Jarryd Lyons Gold Coast Suns 9 8 53 Harry Taylor Geelong Cats 11 10 52 Alex Fasolo Collingwood 27 25 52 Jarrad Waite North Melbourne 17 16 52 Bradley Hill Fremantle 12 11 52 Lance Franklin Sydney Swans 47 45 51 Chad Wingard Port Adelaide 18 17 51 Ollie Wines Port Adelaide 11 11 50 James Harmes Melbourne 9 9 50 Jake Stringer Western Bulldogs 24 24 50 Jake Barrett Brisbane Lions 9 9 50 Rhys Stanley Geelong Cats 6 6 50 Touk Miller Gold Coast Suns 5 5 50 Dom Sheed West Coast Eagles 8 8 50 Jesse White Collingwood 5 5 50 Nat Fyfe Fremantle 11 11 50 Zach Merrett Essendon 5 5 50 Zach Tuohy Geelong Cats 6 6 50 Jack Viney Melbourne 5 5 50 Luke Shuey West Coast Eagles 6 6 50 Darcy Lang Geelong Cats 5 5 50 Aaron Young Port Adelaide 10 10 50 Jack Silvagni Carlton 15 15 50 Sam J. Reid GWS Giants 10 10 50 Jack Crisp Collingwood 6 6 50 Sam Lloyd Richmond 6 6 50 Liam Shiels Hawthorn 7 7 50 Josh Green Essendon 15 15 50 Jade Gresham St Kilda 21 22 49 Justin Westhoff Port Adelaide 10 11 48 Lewis Taylor Brisbane Lions 12 13 48 Luke Parker Sydney Swans 10 11 48 Steve Johnson GWS Giants 13 14 48 Shaun Grigg Richmond 9 10 47 Matthew Kreuzer Carlton 9 10 47 Marcus Bontempelli Western Bulldogs 16 19 46 Luke McDonald North Melbourne 6 7 46 Tom Phillips Collingwood 5 6 45 Nic Newman Sydney Swans 5 6 45 Josh Caddy Richmond 10 12 45 Dylan Shiel GWS Giants 9 11 45 Nakia Cockatoo Geelong Cats 7 9 44 Brodie Smith Adelaide Crows 7 9 44 Sam Gray Port Adelaide 17 22 44 Jason Johannisen Western Bulldogs 6 8 43 Mitch McGovern Adelaide Crows 6 8 43 Kieren Jack Sydney Swans 6 8 43 Gary Ablett Gold Coast Suns 8 11 42 Cyril Rioli Hawthorn 5 7 42 Josh Kelly GWS Giants 10 14 42 Shaun Higgins North Melbourne 14 19 42 Jack Newnes St Kilda 5 7 42 Jeremy McGovern West Coast Eagles 8 11 42 Scott Pendlebury Collingwood 5 7 42 Hayden Crozier Fremantle 9 13 41 Jack Billings St Kilda 16 23 41 Jared Polec Port Adelaide 7 10 41 Shane Edwards Richmond 7 10 41 Josh Dunkley Western Bulldogs 4 6 40 Jordan Murdoch Geelong Cats 6 9 40 Kane Lambert Richmond 6 9 40 Isaac Smith Hawthorn 7 11 39 Sam Menegola Geelong Cats 7 11 39 Sean Lemmens Gold Coast Suns 8 13 38 Paddy McCartin St Kilda 5 8 38 Tomas Bugg Melbourne 7 12 37 Matthew Suckling Western Bulldogs 7 12 37 Marcus Adams Western Bulldogs 4 7 36 Sebastian Ross St Kilda 4 7 36 Will Langford Hawthorn 6 11 35 Maverick Weller St Kilda 9 18 33 Levi Greenwood Collingwood 6 13 32 Tim Broomhead Collingwood 5 11 31 Jack Steven St Kilda 6 14 30 Jack Lonie St Kilda 5 12 29 Hugh McCluggage Brisbane Lions 5 12 29 Dion Prestia Richmond 2 8 20

I stress, "scoring" shots, because unfortunately due to data availability, we don't have much data on how many shots players have taken which have either fallen short or missed the goals entirely. If we did, I suspect a few of these records would look a fair bit worse. When some of this data does drip through to the public, it can throw up a few surprises.

Even though the data are incomplete, we can still get a pretty good idea about goalkicking ability if we look at the right things. However, looking at that table above, the limitations of a straight goals and behinds record is immediately apparent.

Firstly, we have to decide an arbitrary cut off point for when we consider the sample big enough. If instead of looking at players with at least 10 scoring shots, we look at players with at least 5 scoring shots, McEvoy is no longer number 1. Two players this year (Christian Salem and David Cunningham) have kicked 5 goals straight without registering a single behind. Of course, they are not really the best kicks in the comp, we wouldn't expect their accuracy to remain 100% if instead of 5 shots, they had taken 50.

If we make the cutoff 20 or more shots, Christian Petracca becomes the best kick. If we make the cutoff 40 or more, Daniel Menzel becomes the best. 40 might seem like a sensible value, and Menzel really is a good kick, but if we make 40 shots the cutoff we miss a lot of forwards we would otherwise be interested in, such as Sam Reid who has kicked 22.12 or Matthew Wright who has kicked 23.7.

Another obvious shortcoming of the simple accuracy measure is that the difficulty of shots is not accounted for whatsoever. McEvoy has certainly kicked straight this year, but 11 out of his 12 shots were set shots and the majority of them around 30m out, dead in front. This is not a slight at McEvoy at all, in fact this exactly what you would want your resting ruckman to be doing, it's just not necessarily evidence to support the claim he is the best kick in the comp.

What we need instead is a way to judge the difficulty of shots, perhaps based on how well the rest of the competition has kicked similar shots in the past. Luckily I have that exact tool, something regular readers would know as xScore. If you look at McEvoy's shotplot closely you will see that each of those circles is a slightly different size, the bigger the circle, the easier the shot. The shots further out, and at tougher angles are smaller. As is the one right in front, 25m out. Why? Because this was the one non-set shot of his 12 scores, a snap out of the pack. This is a tougher goal to kick than the set shots right next to it.

An AFL average player given those exact shots would kick about 53 points on average (so around 8 goals). McEvoy's 67 points (11 goals) means he's kicked significantly above average.

Using this model, the next obvious leap is to look at which players have kicked the most points above their xScore expectation given the shots they've taken. These are players that have kicked straighter than the AFL average player would've expected to. Good kicks.

Difference Between Actual Score and xScore

Again using the 10 scoring shot cutoff, here's how the competition has kicked.

Player Club Goals Behinds Score xScore Difference Jeremy Cameron GWS Giants 41 21 267 233 34 Matthew Wright Carlton 23 7 145 114 31 Jonathon Patton GWS Giants 33 10 208 177 31 Daniel Menzel Geelong Cats 33 10 208 177 31 Eddie Betts Adelaide Crows 41 20 266 237 29 Orazio Fantasia Essendon 32 19 211 183 28 Steven Motlop Geelong Cats 17 5 107 79 28 Ryan Bastinac Brisbane Lions 14 3 87 59 28 Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows 41 26 272 246 26 Eric Hipwood Brisbane Lions 26 14 170 144 26 Christian Petracca Melbourne 21 5 131 105 26 Jack Martin Gold Coast Suns 16 6 102 80 22 Ben Brown North Melbourne 41 20 266 245 21 Tom McDonald Melbourne 19 5 119 100 19 Tom Hawkins Geelong Cats 36 20 236 217 19 Trent Cotchin Richmond 12 4 76 57 19 Lance Franklin Sydney Swans 47 45 327 309 18 Joe Daniher Essendon 45 26 296 278 18 Jack Gunston Hawthorn 17 10 112 95 17 Paul Puopolo Hawthorn 14 4 88 71 17 Rory Lobb GWS Giants 14 6 90 73 17 Mitch Robinson Brisbane Lions 9 2 56 39 17 Charlie Dixon Port Adelaide 33 19 217 202 15 Tom J. Lynch Gold Coast Suns 37 23 245 230 15 Jake Melksham Melbourne 8 4 52 38 14 Josh Jenkins Adelaide Crows 27 14 176 162 14 Tom Scully GWS Giants 11 5 71 57 14 Lachie Neale Fremantle 13 6 84 70 14 Steele Sidebottom Collingwood 13 8 86 72 14 Rory Sloane Adelaide Crows 13 4 82 68 14 Callum Ah Chee Gold Coast Suns 12 2 74 60 14 Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti Essendon 25 15 165 151 14 Ben McEvoy Hawthorn 11 1 67 53 14 Dan Hannebery Sydney Swans 10 3 63 50 13 Dayne Zorko Brisbane Lions 25 20 170 157 13 Josh P. Kennedy Sydney Swans 11 5 71 58 13 Sam Reid Sydney Swans 22 12 144 131 13 Andy Otten Adelaide Crows 17 8 110 98 12 Jack Watts Melbourne 20 9 129 117 12 Toby Greene GWS Giants 32 22 214 202 12 Jack Riewoldt Richmond 40 26 266 254 12 Devon Smith GWS Giants 12 7 79 68 11 Marc Murphy Carlton 9 4 58 47 11 Michael Walters Fremantle 22 14 146 135 11 Ben Cunnington North Melbourne 7 3 45 34 11 Adam Treloar Collingwood 11 8 74 63 11 Drew Petrie West Coast Eagles 11 3 69 58 11 Tim O'Brien Hawthorn 16 6 102 91 11 Sam Powell-Pepper Port Adelaide 15 10 100 90 10 Nathan Hrovat North Melbourne 11 5 71 61 10 Dayne Beams Brisbane Lions 9 7 61 51 10 Rory Atkins Adelaide Crows 10 5 65 55 10 Wayne Milera Adelaide Crows 7 3 45 35 10 Jamie Elliott Collingwood 25 12 162 152 10 Riley Knight Adelaide Crows 10 3 63 54 9 Brandon Matera Gold Coast Suns 22 12 144 135 9 Peter Wright Gold Coast Suns 22 16 148 139 9 Luke Breust Hawthorn 24 14 158 149 9 Alex Sexton Gold Coast Suns 10 5 65 56 9 James Parsons Geelong Cats 11 4 70 61 9 Brandon Ellis Richmond 7 3 45 36 9 Jordan De Goey Collingwood 9 4 58 49 9 Mark LeCras West Coast Eagles 23 17 155 147 8 David Mackay Adelaide Crows 7 3 45 37 8 Travis Boak Port Adelaide 12 9 81 73 8 Blake Acres St Kilda 8 3 51 43 8 Mitch Hannan Melbourne 18 9 117 109 8 Lachie Hunter Western Bulldogs 12 7 79 71 8 Josh J. Kennedy West Coast Eagles 37 24 246 239 7 Tom Boyd Western Bulldogs 7 3 45 38 7 Shaun Atley North Melbourne 10 5 65 58 7 Zac Williams GWS Giants 7 4 46 39 7 Callan Ward GWS Giants 6 4 40 33 7 Nathan Jones Melbourne 10 6 66 59 7 Robbie Gray Port Adelaide 40 23 263 257 6 Tim Membrey St Kilda 26 12 168 162 6 Will Hoskin-Elliott Collingwood 11 4 70 64 6 Cam McCarthy Fremantle 17 14 116 110 6 Shaun Burgoyne Hawthorn 10 8 68 62 6 Elliot Yeo West Coast Eagles 6 4 40 35 5 Richard Douglas Adelaide Crows 7 5 47 42 5 Sam Petrevski-Seton Carlton 7 4 46 41 5 David Zaharakis Essendon 9 7 61 56 5 Aaron Hall Gold Coast Suns 10 9 69 64 5 Mark Blicavs Geelong Cats 10 4 64 59 5 Robert Murphy Western Bulldogs 6 4 40 36 4 Zach Tuohy Geelong Cats 6 6 42 38 4 David Mundy Fremantle 10 7 67 63 4 Tom Papley Sydney Swans 19 14 128 124 4 Mason Wood North Melbourne 14 11 95 91 4 Bryce Gibbs Carlton 14 10 94 90 4 Lewis Jetta West Coast Eagles 8 3 51 48 3 Jack Ziebell North Melbourne 7 6 48 45 3 Tom Cutler Brisbane Lions 8 6 54 51 3 Ricky Henderson Hawthorn 9 5 59 56 3 Ben Ainsworth Gold Coast Suns 9 5 59 56 3 David Swallow Gold Coast Suns 8 7 55 53 2 Patrick Dangerfield Geelong Cats 32 22 214 212 2 Zach Merrett Essendon 5 5 35 33 2 Clay Smith Western Bulldogs 7 4 46 44 2 Josh Hill West Coast Eagles 16 8 104 102 2 Patrick Cripps Carlton 7 4 46 44 2 Josh Schache Brisbane Lions 8 4 52 50 2 Charlie Cameron Adelaide Crows 20 15 135 133 2 Tom Mitchell Hawthorn 9 7 61 59 2 Tim Taranto GWS Giants 6 4 40 38 2 Jeff Garlett Melbourne 32 19 211 209 2 Cameron Pedersen Melbourne 9 5 59 57 2 Daniel Wells Collingwood 7 4 46 44 2 Toby McLean Western Bulldogs 10 7 67 65 2 Jacob Weitering Carlton 7 3 45 43 2 Shane Kersten Fremantle 17 13 115 113 2 Will Hayward Sydney Swans 13 10 88 87 1 Bailey Dale Western Bulldogs 7 6 48 47 1 Zak Jones Sydney Swans 8 5 53 52 1 Dyson Heppell Essendon 7 6 48 47 1 Mitch Duncan Geelong Cats 9 8 62 61 1 Isaac Heeney Sydney Swans 10 7 67 66 1 Daniel Rioli Richmond 14 10 94 93 1 Charlie Curnow Carlton 12 7 79 78 1 Alex Neal-Bullen Melbourne 10 7 67 66 1 Luke Dahlhaus Western Bulldogs 7 5 47 46 1 Dan Butler Richmond 20 9 129 129 0 Jarryd Lyons Gold Coast Suns 9 8 62 62 0 Darcy Moore Collingwood 21 13 139 139 0 Dom Sheed West Coast Eagles 8 8 56 56 0 Sam J. Reid GWS Giants 10 10 70 70 0 Jared Polec Port Adelaide 7 10 52 52 0 Chad Wingard Port Adelaide 18 17 125 125 0 Jarryd Roughead Hawthorn 23 14 152 152 0 Sam Lloyd Richmond 6 6 42 42 0 Taylor Garner North Melbourne 10 6 66 66 0 Luke Parker Sydney Swans 10 11 71 72 -1 Nat Fyfe Fremantle 11 11 77 78 -1 Justin Westhoff Port Adelaide 10 11 71 72 -1 Jack Crisp Collingwood 6 6 42 43 -1 Jason Johannisen Western Bulldogs 6 8 44 45 -1 James Stewart Essendon 12 8 80 81 -1 Jesse White Collingwood 5 5 35 36 -1 Tom Lynch Adelaide Crows 23 17 155 156 -1 Travis Colyer Essendon 10 9 69 70 -1 Patrick Ryder Port Adelaide 8 6 54 55 -1 Todd Goldstein North Melbourne 10 5 65 67 -2 Luke Shuey West Coast Eagles 6 6 42 44 -2 Nick Riewoldt St Kilda 24 12 156 158 -2 Jamie Cripps West Coast Eagles 15 13 103 105 -2 Luke McDonald North Melbourne 6 7 43 45 -2 Nathan Vardy West Coast Eagles 7 5 47 49 -2 Kayne Turner North Melbourne 15 8 98 100 -2 Dylan Shiel GWS Giants 9 11 65 67 -2 Levi Casboult Carlton 24 14 158 160 -2 Dustin Martin Richmond 22 19 151 153 -2 Cale Hooker Essendon 27 15 177 180 -3 Liam Shiels Hawthorn 7 7 49 52 -3 Ben Reid Collingwood 6 5 41 44 -3 Jack Redpath Western Bulldogs 10 7 67 70 -3 Jackson Trengove Port Adelaide 15 10 100 103 -3 Tom Phillips Collingwood 5 6 36 39 -3 Aaron Young Port Adelaide 10 10 70 73 -3 Jarrad Waite North Melbourne 17 16 118 121 -3 Nic Newman Sydney Swans 5 6 36 39 -3 Michael Barlow Gold Coast Suns 10 8 68 72 -4 Sam Jacobs Adelaide Crows 6 4 40 44 -4 Bradley Hill Fremantle 12 11 83 87 -4 Dale Thomas Carlton 7 4 46 50 -4 Brodie Smith Adelaide Crows 7 9 51 56 -5 James Sicily Hawthorn 12 8 80 85 -5 Jarman Impey Port Adelaide 13 10 88 93 -5 Travis Cloke Western Bulldogs 6 4 40 45 -5 Ollie Wines Port Adelaide 11 11 77 82 -5 Touk Miller Gold Coast Suns 5 5 35 40 -5 Jack Darling West Coast Eagles 30 19 199 204 -5 Lewis Taylor Brisbane Lions 12 13 85 90 -5 Liam Picken Western Bulldogs 12 9 81 86 -5 Dean Kent Melbourne 7 6 48 54 -6 Rohan Bewick Brisbane Lions 6 5 41 47 -6 Jordan Murdoch Geelong Cats 6 9 45 51 -6 Shaun Grigg Richmond 9 10 64 70 -6 Paddy McCartin St Kilda 5 8 38 44 -6 Darcy Lang Geelong Cats 5 5 35 41 -6 Jake Stringer Western Bulldogs 24 24 168 174 -6 Jack Silvagni Carlton 15 15 105 111 -6 Brady Grey Fremantle 8 7 55 61 -6 Jack Viney Melbourne 5 5 35 41 -6 Jake Barrett Brisbane Lions 9 9 63 70 -7 Josh Kelly GWS Giants 10 14 74 81 -7 Scott Pendlebury Collingwood 5 7 37 44 -7 Gary Rohan Sydney Swans 10 8 68 75 -7 Josh Caddy Richmond 10 12 72 79 -7 Marcus Adams Western Bulldogs 4 7 31 38 -7 Steve Johnson GWS Giants 13 14 92 99 -7 Sebastian Ross St Kilda 4 7 31 38 -7 Josh Green Essendon 15 15 105 113 -8 James Harmes Melbourne 9 9 63 71 -8 Jack Newnes St Kilda 5 7 37 45 -8 Josh Bruce St Kilda 26 17 173 181 -8 Gary Ablett Gold Coast Suns 8 11 59 67 -8 Josh Dunkley Western Bulldogs 4 6 30 38 -8 Matthew Suckling Western Bulldogs 7 12 54 62 -8 Harry Taylor Geelong Cats 11 10 76 85 -9 Jesse Hogan Melbourne 10 6 66 75 -9 Ryan Lester Brisbane Lions 11 8 74 83 -9 Kane Lambert Richmond 6 9 45 54 -9 Cyril Rioli Hawthorn 5 7 37 46 -9 Hayden Crozier Fremantle 9 13 67 77 -10 Kieren Jack Sydney Swans 6 8 44 54 -10 Nakia Cockatoo Geelong Cats 7 9 51 61 -10 Shane Edwards Richmond 7 10 52 63 -11 Jeremy McGovern West Coast Eagles 8 11 59 70 -11 Isaac Smith Hawthorn 7 11 53 64 -11 Alex Fasolo Collingwood 27 25 187 199 -12 Jason Castagna Richmond 19 15 129 141 -12 Sam Menegola Geelong Cats 7 11 53 65 -12 Rhys Stanley Geelong Cats 6 6 42 54 -12 Tim Broomhead Collingwood 5 11 41 54 -13 Mitch McGovern Adelaide Crows 6 8 44 57 -13 Matthew Kreuzer Carlton 9 10 64 78 -14 Hugh McCluggage Brisbane Lions 5 12 42 57 -15 Shaun Higgins North Melbourne 14 19 103 118 -15 Levi Greenwood Collingwood 6 13 49 66 -17 Will Langford Hawthorn 6 11 47 64 -17 Jack Steven St Kilda 6 14 50 69 -19 Jack Lonie St Kilda 5 12 42 61 -19 Sam Gray Port Adelaide 17 22 124 144 -20 Dion Prestia Richmond 2 8 20 40 -20 Marcus Bontempelli Western Bulldogs 16 19 115 136 -21 Jack Billings St Kilda 16 23 119 141 -22 Jade Gresham St Kilda 21 22 148 172 -24 Sean Lemmens Gold Coast Suns 8 13 61 85 -24 Tomas Bugg Melbourne 7 12 54 80 -26 Maverick Weller St Kilda 9 18 72 101 -29

Using this metric Jeremy Cameron becomes top of the class. 34 points above xScore means he has kicked about 7 goals more than the AFL average player would with his shots. This is no doubt very impressive, but it's important to realise that the difference between score and xScore, does not solely measure accuracy, but rather naturally favours those players who take lots of shots.

Cameron has taken 62 scoring shots this season, the 6th most in the league. Kicking 34 points above xScore is not quite the same level of sharpshooting as Matthew Wright who has kicked 31 points above xScore from only 30 shots, the 53rd most shots in the league. Again, looking at their shotplots gives us a better idea of what is going on. The dark grey areas make up a bigger proportion of Cameron's shots than Wright's



Looking purely at score added above expectation certainly gives us an idea of the value of a player, but it's not the best way to judge the accuracy of a player's goalkicking. Instead we turn to the world of statistical hypothesis testing to help us pick out the best kicks.

Probability of Kicking As Many Goals by Luck

To explain how this works I'm going to use a simple example. Imagine a player takes 3 shots at goal, each with individual probabilities of goal of 0.5, 0.6, and 0.3. For those who have forgotten high school maths, probabilities are represented between 0 and 1. A probability of 0.5 is the same as a 50% chance, 0.6 is 60% etc.

The probability of a player kicking all 3 goals, assuming they are in fact AFL average, no better or worse, is 0.5 * 0.6 * 0.3 = 0.09. You could say this is the probability of an average player getting "lucky" and kicking three, as opposed actually being higher skilled then the rest of the competition. For those players with very few shots (like Salem and Cunningham) this is most likely what is going on.

The probability of the same AFL average player kicking 2 out of the 3 shots is calculated so: (0.5 * 0.6 * 0.3) + (0.5 * 0.4 * 0.3) + (0.5 * 0.6 * 0.7) = 0.36. So the probability of an AFL average player kicking 2 or more goals given these three shots is 0.36 + 0.9 = 0.45. There's a 45% chance that a player with complete average skill would kick at least 2 goals given these three shots.

Now we expand this a bit further and look at a real example, the AFL clairvoyant, Mitch Robinson. Here are his shots this year:

Outside of those two shots right near goal, Robinson has taken some very difficult shots this year. No other shot has had more than a 50% chance of goal if kicked at the AFL average.

Using the same method as above, we can calculate the probability of kicking 9 goals or more if Mitch was in fact an AFL average kick. This comes out at 0.0074, or a 0.74% chance. There's less than a 1% chance that we would see this record from an AFL average goalkicker. It's far more likely that Mitch Robinson is actually better than average.

Here's the rest of the competition ranked by this metric:

Player Club Goals Behinds Score xScore Prob Avg. Player Equal or Better M.Wright Carlton 23 7 145 114 0.0041 R.Bastinac Brisbane Lions 14 3 87 59 0.0049 M.Robinson Brisbane Lions 9 2 56 39 0.0074 J.Patton GWS Giants 33 10 208 177 0.0074 S.Motlop Geelong Cats 17 5 107 79 0.0122 C.Petracca Melbourne 21 5 131 105 0.0189 B.McEvoy Hawthorn 11 1 67 53 0.0244 D.Menzel Geelong Cats 33 10 208 177 0.0255 J.Martin Gold Coast Suns 16 6 102 80 0.0342 T.Cotchin Richmond 12 4 76 57 0.0373 J.Cameron GWS Giants 41 21 267 233 0.0387 C.Ah Chee Gold Coast Suns 12 2 74 60 0.0486 E.Hipwood Brisbane Lions 26 14 170 144 0.0527 O.Fantasia Essendon 32 19 211 183 0.0571 E.Betts Adelaide Crows 41 20 266 237 0.0616 P.Puopolo Hawthorn 14 4 88 71 0.0663 D.Hannebery Sydney Swans 10 3 63 50 0.0689 T.Walker Adelaide Crows 41 26 272 246 0.0725 T.McDonald Melbourne 19 5 119 100 0.0766 T.O'Brien Hawthorn 16 6 102 91 0.0822 T.Scully GWS Giants 11 5 71 57 0.0823 L.Neale Fremantle 13 6 84 70 0.0949 J.Melksham Melbourne 8 4 52 38 0.11 R.Sloane Adelaide Crows 13 4 82 68 0.123 R.Lobb GWS Giants 14 6 90 73 0.1236 A.Sexton Gold Coast Suns 10 5 65 56 0.1294 J.Gunston Hawthorn 17 10 112 95 0.1363 B.Cunnington North Melbourne 7 3 45 34 0.1409 B.Brown North Melbourne 41 20 266 245 0.144 J.Watts Melbourne 20 9 129 117 0.1468 J.Parsons Geelong Cats 11 4 70 61 0.148 S.Reid Sydney Swans 22 12 144 131 0.1486 M.Murphy Carlton 9 4 58 47 0.1571 J.Kennedy Sydney Swans 11 5 71 58 0.1589 S.Sidebottom Collingwood 13 8 86 72 0.1667 B.Acres St Kilda 8 3 51 43 0.1681 A.Otten Adelaide Crows 17 8 110 98 0.1766 D.Petrie West Coast Eagles 11 3 69 58 0.1784 D.Mackay Adelaide Crows 7 3 45 37 0.1824 T.Hawkins Geelong Cats 36 20 236 217 0.1835 L.Jetta West Coast Eagles 8 3 51 48 0.1845 D.Smith GWS Giants 12 7 79 68 0.2046 J.Jenkins Adelaide Crows 27 14 176 162 0.2051 J.De Goey Collingwood 9 4 58 49 0.2075 N.Hrovat North Melbourne 11 5 71 61 0.21 T.Boyd Western Bulldogs 7 3 45 38 0.2155 L.Hunter Western Bulldogs 12 7 79 71 0.2155 R.Atkins Adelaide Crows 10 5 65 55 0.2171 M.Blicavs Geelong Cats 10 4 64 59 0.2227 J.Daniher Essendon 45 26 296 278 0.223 T.Boak Port Adelaide 12 9 81 73 0.2276 A.Treloar Collingwood 11 8 74 63 0.2285 W.Milera Adelaide Crows 7 3 45 35 0.2332 W.Hoskin-Elliott Collingwood 11 4 70 64 0.2355 A.McDonald-Tipungwuti Essendon 25 15 165 151 0.2471 C.Dixon Port Adelaide 33 19 217 202 0.2499 D.Beams Brisbane Lions 9 7 61 51 0.2505 R.Knight Adelaide Crows 10 3 63 54 0.2515 T.Lynch Gold Coast Suns 37 23 245 230 0.2543 M.Walters Fremantle 22 14 146 135 0.2577 B.Matera Gold Coast Suns 22 12 144 135 0.2608 B.Ellis Richmond 7 3 45 36 0.2608 L.Franklin Sydney Swans 47 45 327 309 0.2633 S.Atley North Melbourne 10 5 65 58 0.2645 J.Elliott Collingwood 25 12 162 152 0.2705 T.Greene GWS Giants 32 22 214 202 0.2781 D.Zorko Brisbane Lions 25 20 170 157 0.2844 M.Hannan Melbourne 18 9 117 109 0.2846 L.Breust Hawthorn 24 14 158 149 0.294 Z.Williams GWS Giants 7 4 46 39 0.3012 S.Powell-Pepper Port Adelaide 15 10 100 90 0.3029 C.Ward GWS Giants 6 4 40 33 0.3093 J.Riewoldt Richmond 40 26 266 254 0.3114 J.Weitering Carlton 7 3 45 43 0.3154 J.Kennedy West Coast Eagles 37 24 246 239 0.3212 N.Jones Melbourne 10 6 66 59 0.322 D.Zaharakis Essendon 9 7 61 56 0.3231 T.Membrey St Kilda 26 12 168 162 0.3292 T.McLean Western Bulldogs 10 7 67 65 0.345 S.Petrevski-Seton Carlton 7 4 46 41 0.3577 P.Wright Gold Coast Suns 22 16 148 139 0.3595 D.Heppell Essendon 7 6 48 47 0.3598 M.LeCras West Coast Eagles 23 17 155 147 0.3605 B.Gibbs Carlton 14 10 94 90 0.3642 A.Hall Gold Coast Suns 10 9 69 64 0.3716 J.Garlett Melbourne 32 19 211 209 0.3849 S.Burgoyne Hawthorn 10 8 68 62 0.3951 B.Ainsworth Gold Coast Suns 9 5 59 56 0.405 C.McCarthy Fremantle 17 14 116 110 0.4078 Z.Tuohy Geelong Cats 6 6 42 38 0.4093 R.Gray Port Adelaide 40 23 263 257 0.4203 M.Wood North Melbourne 14 11 95 91 0.4219 D.Butler Richmond 20 9 129 129 0.4234 R.Douglas Adelaide Crows 7 5 47 42 0.4311 D.Mundy Fremantle 10 7 67 63 0.4338 P.Dangerfield Geelong Cats 32 22 214 212 0.439 C.Cameron Adelaide Crows 20 15 135 133 0.442 D.Rioli Richmond 14 10 94 93 0.4503 E.Yeo West Coast Eagles 6 4 40 35 0.453 I.Heeney Sydney Swans 10 7 67 66 0.4741 J.Ziebell North Melbourne 7 6 48 45 0.4743 R.Murphy Western Bulldogs 6 4 40 36 0.4864 J.Schache Brisbane Lions 8 4 52 50 0.487 T.Cutler Brisbane Lions 8 6 54 51 0.4978 T.Papley Sydney Swans 19 14 128 124 0.4997 C.Curnow Carlton 12 7 79 78 0.5003 R.Henderson Hawthorn 9 5 59 56 0.5054 D.Swallow Gold Coast Suns 8 7 55 53 0.5058 S.Lloyd Richmond 6 6 42 42 0.5105 J.Hill West Coast Eagles 16 8 104 102 0.5131 T.Taranto GWS Giants 6 4 40 38 0.5163 J.Lyons Gold Coast Suns 9 8 62 62 0.5199 P.Ryder Port Adelaide 8 6 54 55 0.5244 D.Wells Collingwood 7 4 46 44 0.5245 S.Kersten Fremantle 17 13 115 113 0.5253 T.Goldstein North Melbourne 10 5 65 67 0.5277 C.Pedersen Melbourne 9 5 59 57 0.5323 L.Dahlhaus Western Bulldogs 7 5 47 46 0.5336 J.Roughead Hawthorn 23 14 152 152 0.5337 T.Lynch Adelaide Crows 23 17 155 156 0.5353 D.Martin Richmond 22 19 151 153 0.5375 T.Mitchell Hawthorn 9 7 61 59 0.5387 C.Smith Western Bulldogs 7 4 46 44 0.5404 N.Fyfe Fremantle 11 11 77 78 0.5467 Z.Merrett Essendon 5 5 35 33 0.5565 C.Wingard Port Adelaide 18 17 125 125 0.5637 N.Riewoldt St Kilda 24 12 156 158 0.5644 W.Hayward Sydney Swans 13 10 88 87 0.5648 B.Dale Western Bulldogs 7 6 48 47 0.5734 S.Reid GWS Giants 10 10 70 70 0.5746 D.Shiel GWS Giants 9 11 65 67 0.5857 J.Stewart Essendon 12 8 80 81 0.5862 T.Garner North Melbourne 10 6 66 66 0.5974 D.Thomas Carlton 7 4 46 50 0.5979 A.Neal-Bullen Melbourne 10 7 67 66 0.5987 J.Polec Port Adelaide 7 10 52 52 0.606 D.Sheed West Coast Eagles 8 8 56 56 0.613 J.Cripps West Coast Eagles 15 13 103 105 0.6145 M.Duncan Geelong Cats 9 8 62 61 0.6149 P.Cripps Carlton 7 4 46 44 0.6215 D.Moore Collingwood 21 13 139 139 0.6279 T.Colyer Essendon 10 9 69 70 0.6292 B.Reid Collingwood 6 5 41 44 0.6303 K.Turner North Melbourne 15 8 98 100 0.6308 L.Parker Sydney Swans 10 11 71 72 0.6373 A.Young Port Adelaide 10 10 70 73 0.6422 J.Johannisen Western Bulldogs 6 8 44 45 0.6437 Z.Jones Sydney Swans 8 5 53 52 0.6479 J.White Collingwood 5 5 35 36 0.6489 L.Casboult Carlton 24 14 158 160 0.6528 J.Darling West Coast Eagles 30 19 199 204 0.6552 S.Grigg Richmond 9 10 64 70 0.6607 N.Vardy West Coast Eagles 7 5 47 49 0.6688 J.Waite North Melbourne 17 16 118 121 0.6751 J.Westhoff Port Adelaide 10 11 71 72 0.6751 C.Hooker Essendon 27 15 177 180 0.6801 J.Stringer Western Bulldogs 24 24 168 174 0.7003 B.Hill Fremantle 12 11 83 87 0.7155 J.Crisp Collingwood 6 6 42 43 0.7233 J.Trengove Port Adelaide 15 10 100 103 0.7286 J.Impey Port Adelaide 13 10 88 93 0.731 S.Jacobs Adelaide Crows 6 4 40 44 0.7348 L.McDonald North Melbourne 6 7 43 45 0.7419 N.Newman Sydney Swans 5 6 36 39 0.7422 L.Shuey West Coast Eagles 6 6 42 44 0.7428 J.Redpath Western Bulldogs 10 7 67 70 0.7467 B.Smith Adelaide Crows 7 9 51 56 0.7513 L.Picken Western Bulldogs 12 9 81 86 0.7523 J.Silvagni Carlton 15 15 105 111 0.7543 L.Taylor Brisbane Lions 12 13 85 90 0.7579 J.Bruce St Kilda 26 17 173 181 0.7584 M.Barlow Gold Coast Suns 10 8 68 72 0.763 L.Shiels Hawthorn 7 7 49 52 0.7652 O.Wines Port Adelaide 11 11 77 82 0.7734 J.Sicily Hawthorn 12 8 80 85 0.7737 G.Rohan Sydney Swans 10 8 68 75 0.7765 J.Castagna Richmond 19 15 129 141 0.7904 C.Rioli Hawthorn 5 7 37 46 0.7923 J.Green Essendon 15 15 105 113 0.7944 J.Caddy Richmond 10 12 72 79 0.8052 A.Fasolo Collingwood 27 25 187 199 0.8109 J.Kelly GWS Giants 10 14 74 81 0.8121 J.Murdoch Geelong Cats 6 9 45 51 0.8131 T.Miller Gold Coast Suns 5 5 35 40 0.8167 S.Johnson GWS Giants 13 14 92 99 0.8228 I.Smith Hawthorn 7 11 53 64 0.8241 M.Adams Western Bulldogs 4 7 31 38 0.8244 B.Grey Fremantle 8 7 55 61 0.8367 D.Kent Melbourne 7 6 48 54 0.8396 J.Harmes Melbourne 9 9 63 71 0.841 J.Viney Melbourne 5 5 35 41 0.854 J.Barrett Brisbane Lions 9 9 63 70 0.856 T.Phillips Collingwood 5 6 36 39 0.8594 K.Jack Sydney Swans 6 8 44 54 0.8655 P.McCartin St Kilda 5 8 38 44 0.8711 T.Cloke Western Bulldogs 6 4 40 45 0.8715 H.Taylor Geelong Cats 11 10 76 85 0.872 M.Suckling Western Bulldogs 7 12 54 62 0.8766 S.Edwards Richmond 7 10 52 63 0.8779 G.Ablett Gold Coast Suns 8 11 59 67 0.8812 S.Pendlebury Collingwood 5 7 37 44 0.8846 R.Bewick Brisbane Lions 6 5 41 47 0.8869 H.Crozier Fremantle 9 13 67 77 0.8882 S.Higgins North Melbourne 14 19 103 118 0.8903 S.Ross St Kilda 4 7 31 38 0.8908 N.Cockatoo Geelong Cats 7 9 51 61 0.8959 R.Lester Brisbane Lions 11 8 74 83 0.8972 D.Lang Geelong Cats 5 5 35 41 0.8987 S.Menegola Geelong Cats 7 11 53 65 0.9161 J.Hogan Melbourne 10 6 66 75 0.9174 J.Dunkley Western Bulldogs 4 6 30 38 0.9182 K.Lambert Richmond 6 9 45 54 0.9197 S.Gray Port Adelaide 17 22 124 144 0.9312 M.Kreuzer Carlton 9 10 64 78 0.9368 T.Broomhead Collingwood 5 11 41 54 0.9436 J.Newnes St Kilda 5 7 37 45 0.945 J.McGovern West Coast Eagles 8 11 59 70 0.9465 M.Bontempelli Western Bulldogs 16 19 115 136 0.9531 J.Gresham St Kilda 21 22 148 172 0.9535 J.Billings St Kilda 16 23 119 141 0.9648 M.McGovern Adelaide Crows 6 8 44 57 0.9672 H.McCluggage Brisbane Lions 5 12 42 57 0.969 R.Stanley Geelong Cats 6 6 42 54 0.971 L.Greenwood Collingwood 6 13 49 66 0.9714 J.Lonie St Kilda 5 12 42 61 0.9758 W.Langford Hawthorn 6 11 47 64 0.9796 J.Steven St Kilda 6 14 50 69 0.9882 S.Lemmens Gold Coast Suns 8 13 61 85 0.9935 M.Weller St Kilda 9 18 72 101 0.995 D.Prestia Richmond 2 8 20 40 0.9955 T.Bugg Melbourne 7 12 54 80 0.9994

So there's only a 0.41% chance (or alternatively about a 1 in 250 chance) that Matthew Wright is actually average and his record is that of an average player who got "lucky". This may seem like a tiny chance at face value, but it's important to remember that we are looking at 231 players here, it would certainly not be uncommon to see a few players luck out. A way to be more sure of Wright's skill would be to look at his past season's, but I'll save that for another post.

At the other end of the spectrum we have the "statistically significant" worst kicks in the comp. Given the 19 shots he has taken this year, there's a 99.94% chance that an AFL average player would kick as straight or straighter then Tom Bugg has. Maybe his suspension was a bit of a blessing for the Dees.

You can see clearly from his shotplot that other than 4-5 sitters, he's missed virtually everything else he has attempted.

Mav Weller from St Kilda is a similar story. 99.5% of kickers would do as well or better with his chances this year.

Have a click around and find the best and worst from your club.

Looking solely at set shot kicking could also be enlightening. xScore can sometimes misrate the difficulty of shots from open play, as pressure on the kicker is not known exactly, but rather inferred from other data. If we looked only at set shots we could remove some of this noise and get a better idea of who is actually the sweetest kick in the comp. The problem with this is the sample sizes become a lot smaller. I may have a look at this later on in the year, but as it stands now, Jonathon Patton is by far and away the best set shot.