Labor's agriculture spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon. Credit:Damian White A senior Labor source insisted Mr Fitzgibbon would not be left without a seat. "He's getting saved," said the source. The loss of Hunter will be a factional flashpoint between the Left and Right in the ALP. Mr Fitzgibbon and the Right are likely to push for him to move into the seat of Charlton, which will be renamed Hunter in order to retain the federation link. In that scenario, Labor backbencher Pat Conroy would be forced to move from Charlton into neighbouring Shortland. Jill Hall, the current Shortland MP, is yet to announce her intentions but she is expected to retire at the next election.

Liberal MP Bob Baldwin says he walked out of anti-muslim protest. Credit:Charles Elias Fairfax Media understands Mr Fitzgibbon would not have the numbers to challenge Mr Conroy directly in the rebadged Hunter and the Left could push for Mr Fitzgibbon to instead seek to win Paterson back from the Liberals. Paterson has become notionally Labor and Fairfax Media has been told Liberal Bob Baldwin is likely to bow out of politics. He was demoted as parliamentary secretary to the environment when Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott. The Liberal Party will benefit from changes to Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen's western Sydney seat of McMahon and the electorate of Parramatta. The Liberals are also better off in the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, Robertson under the proposed changes while the Nationals should have a more comfortable margin in the north coast seat of Page .

But Barton in Sydney's south east, held by Liberal Nikolas Varvaris will become, notionally Labor. The ALP believes it will pick up Paterson and Dobell from the Liberals. Electors in the northern part of the existing seat of Hunter will move into Agriculture Minister join Barnaby Joyce's New England electorate and about 40 per cent will become part of Paterson. In total, NSW's 48 seats will become 47 and flow-on effects will mean small boundary changes across the state. It appears as if Barton, one of the Liberals' most marginal seats will become a safe Labor electorate after south Marrickville was lost from Anthony Albanese's Grayndler division.

In a statement, the AEC said 11 submissions to its redistribution process had nominated the area between the Hawkesbury River and the Queensland border as most appropriate to lose a seat. Of the 12 divisions in that area, only Robertson meets the numerical requirements of the Electoral Act. The current target is 103,500 people per division. When redrawing boundaries, the AEC is asked to not spread divisions across major geographical features such as the Great Dividing Range. "The 'push' towards the Hunter Valley Region by the existing electoral divisions to its north and south result in the movement westward of these Hunter Valley Region electoral divisions," the AEC said.

"This movement results in the existing Division of Charlton needing a considerable number of electors to meet the numerical requirements of the Electoral Act. The Committee notes that these can only be obtained from the existing Division of Hunter. With contributions made to the proposed Divisions of Charlton and Paterson the existing Division of Hunter retains only 11.71 per cent of itself. "In these circumstances, the committee unanimously proposes the abolition of the existing Division of Hunter." The AEC has already released draft electoral boundaries to create a new, nominally-Liberal seat of "Burt" in Western Australia from parts of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Tangney. The new division, in the south of Perth, will bring that state's number of seats in the House of Representatives to 16. It will take in parts of the seat of Canning, recently won by Liberal Andrew Hastie at the recent crunch byelection held days after the overthrow of Tony Abbott as prime minister.

An election cannot be contested on the new boundaries until they have been formally gazetted, said ABC election expert Antony Green. If an early election is called, the AEC will be forced into a mini-redistribution in WA. That would involve merging two neighbouring electorates with the largest enrolments and making them three. That would mean a new temporary electorate of Brand-Canning. Objections to the redraw can be made until November before a second proposal is issued. A final determination will be made in February next year. Follow us on Twitter