Whomever you support in the primary, it’s difficult to deny that there is a correlation between turnout and results thus far. Where turnout has been better than 2008, Sanders wins. Where turnout has dropped less than 20%, Sanders usually wins. When turnout has dropped more than 20% Clinton always wins. This table shows the relationship between turnout and results thus far:



Turnout Change Prediction >0% Bernie wins with 18%+ -10 to -20% Bernie wins with 10%+ except in Mass -20+% Hillary wins (broad range of margins)

Note that both primaries and caucuses seem to hold true to this trend so far (with caucuses showing the highest relative turnouts). With that in mind, we move on to Michigan. The trick with Michigan though is that it’s demographically different than all of the states we’ve seen this far. It’s a mid-west post-industrial state with large rural areas contrasted with affluent areas and the big city in Detroit. We don’t really have a comparative framework to date so I am relying somewhat on the polls and the Massachusetts results for this projection.



Turnout Change Prediction >0% Bernie wins close election -0 to -10% Hillary wins close election -10 to -20% Hillary wins by +10-15% -20+% Hillary landslide of 25%+

But here is the gravy. so far turnout has directly predicted results everywhere except Massachusetts. However, if you weight the polls with turnout (which is how the polls are created in the first place so tricky) you can see that the polls had Massachusetts for Hillary the week before the election by a smaller margin than they do in Michigan, so it’s fair to assume that Bernie needs a very high turnout to win. Michigan also is quite new demographically so it’ll be interesting to see what patterns hold from other regions.

With that all done, we should be able to predict results based on turnout. So here is a county-by-county table of 2008 turnout for Michigan. If you support Hillary and turnout today isn’t meeting these levels, that is likely good for your candidate. If you are a Bernie supporter and turnout today is matching or exceeding these levels, this is likely very good for Bernie. So here is a tool for monitoring results.



Counties 2008 Votes 593,897 Alcona 616 Alger 479 Allegan 3,762 Alpena 1,505 Antrim 998 Arenac 729 Baraga 436 Barry 2,427 Bay 8,110 Benzie 1,067 Berrien 6,356 Branch 1,403 Calhoun 5,324 Cass 2,348 Charlevoix 1,087 Cheboygan 1,218 Chippewa 1,446 Clare 1,227 Clinton 3,047 Crawford 600 Delta 1,620 Dickinson 1,177 Eaton 4,890 Emmet 1,222 Genesee 26,399 Gladwin 1,399 Gogebic 781 Grand Traverse 4,217 Gratiot 1,567 Hillsdale 1,389 Houghton 1,343 Huron 1,497 Ingham 16,313 Ionia 1,886 Iosco 1,521 Iron 849 Isabella 1,992 Jackson 5,665 Kalamazoo 12,378 Kalkaska 677 Kent 25,817 Keweenaw 148 Lake 532 Lapeer 4,193 Leelanau 1,315 Lenawee 3,839 Livingston 7,968 Luce 239 Mackinac 583 Macomb 56,311 Manistee 1,250 Marquette 2,915 Mason 1,129 Mecosta 1,386 Menominee 1,088 Midland 3,287 Missaukee 581 Monroe 9,242 Montcalm 2,099 Montmorency 526 Muskegon 9,426 Newaygo 1,889 Oakland 86,595 Oceana 1,228 Ogemaw 1,177 Ontonagon 443 Osceola 751 Oscoda 370 Otsego 972 Ottawa 7,784 Presque Isle 652 Roscommon 1,401 Saginaw 9,044 St. Clair 8,561 St. Joseph 1,797 Sanilac 1,726 Schoolcraft 385 Shiawassee 4,393 Tuscola 2,587 Van Buren 2,837 Washtenaw 27,952 Wayne 163,459 Wexford 1,053

I actually have this set up in a google doc which can be used to keep a live tally of turnout throughout the state but I have a soccer game to attend. If I find someone to manage it though I can leave it in good hands. Any volunteers?