We’re coming up on the biggest release of the season, so let’s review Stalker’s latest v1wk1 estimates.

Already Released



Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series 4,094 4,094 4,094 2018/01/31 -20 2017/12/06 55 Pop Team Epic

Upcoming Releases



Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series 16,376 17,234 17,234 2018/02/23 3 2017/11/06 157 IDOLiSH7 4,197 6,235 6,235 2018/03/14 22 2018/01/08 102 Zoku Touken Ranbu: Hanamaru 608 924 924 2018/03/21 29 2018/01/12 16 Dagashi Kashi 2 232 340 340 2018/03/21 29 2018/01/19 8 Miira no Kaikata 270 518 518 2018/03/21 29 2018/01/07 6 Sanrio Danshi 248 444 444 2018/03/21 29 2018/01/12 7 Takunomi. 660 1,144 1,144 2018/03/23 31 2017/12/22 11 Gakuen Babysitters 829 1,250 1,250 2018/03/28 36 2017/12/16 13 Hakyuu Houshin Engi 3,009 6,190 6,190 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/09 75 Karakai Jouzu no Takagi-san 143 303 303 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/19 5 Killing Bites 438 833 833 2018/03/28 36 2017/12/11 6 Mitsuboshi Colors 291 447 1,203 2018/03/28 36 2017/12/25 5 Ramen Daisuki Koizumi-san 1,288 2,182 2,182 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/09 32 Ryuuou no Oshigoto! 614 1,149 1,149 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/06 14 Slow Start 2,260 5,197 5,197 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/09 57 Sora yori mo Tooi Basho 2,930 7,098 10,836 2018/03/28 36 2017/12/06 40 Yuru Camp△ 856 1,622 1,622 2018/03/30 38 2018/01/12 23 Death March kara Hajimaru Isekai Kyousoukyoku 323 519 519 2018/03/30 38 2017/12/24 6 Itou Junji Collection 724 1,324 1,324 2018/04/03 42 2018/01/06 17 citrus 2,540 4,742 4,742 2018/04/04 43 2018/01/11 67 Violet Evergarden 367 1,278 1,278 2018/04/11 50 2018/02/03 24 Hakata Tonkotsu Ramens 143 281 792 2018/04/18 57 2018/01/19 5 Koi wa Ameagari no You ni 138 516 516 2018/04/18 57 2018/01/22 5 Saiki Kusuo no Sai-nan Season2 1,585 5,603 5,603 2018/04/25 64 2018/01/28 75 Darling in the FranXX 1,182 3,198 6,720 2018/04/25 64 2018/01/12 32 Hakumei to Mikochi 100 418 418 2018/04/25 64 2018/02/01 6 Marchen Madchen 285 606 606 2018/04/25 64 2018/01/13 8 Nanatsu no Taizai: Imashime no Fukkatsu 3,014 5,203 8,473 2018/04/25 64 2017/12/18 49 Overlord II 214 540 1,102 2018/04/25 64 2018/01/15 6 Toji no Miko 20 44 188 2018/04/27 66 2018/01/12 1 Damepri Anime Caravan 1,826 6,658 6,658 2018/05/09 78 2018/01/29 91 Cardcaptor Sakura: Clear Card-hen 1,022 10,420 10,420 2018/05/23 92 2018/02/11 146 Fate/Extra Last Encore 287 802 2,719 2018/05/23 92 2018/01/16 9 Yowamushi Pedal: Glory Line 166 460 1,251 2018/05/25 94 2018/01/19 6 Beatless 49 542 1,296 2018/05/25 94 2018/02/10 6 Kokkoku 1,189 2,545 4,717 2018/05/30 99 2018/01/19 40 Devilman Crybaby 204 683 683 2018/05/30 99 2018/01/20 7 Grancrest Senki 1,819 12,074 12,074 2018/06/06 106 2018/02/01 107 Emiya-san Chi no Kyou no Gohan 1,081 2,803 2,803 2018/06/27 127 2018/01/08 26 Gintama.: Shirogane no Tamashii-hen

Solicited Too Recently, no estimate yet



Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series

The above columns show, in order

• Stalker current wk1 points as of February 19, 2AM JST

• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 19, 2AM JST

• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 19, 2AM JST for high price items, with penalty removed

• Release Date

• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)

• Solicitation Date

• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))

• Show title

Comments

Points per day vs Days to release

Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Penalized vs non-penalized estimated

I’ve gone over this countless times so you probably already know the drill, but you see two estimates for some shows because Stalker tracks two numbers for “high price” items, i.e. anything with an MSRP over ¥10,000. The first number is the estimate with a heavy penalty applied, the second estimate is with no penalty applied at all. The rationale for this is that more expensive items have inflated rankings on Amazon, both due to MSRP potentially factoring into Amazon’s rankings and also the fact that the more expensive an item is, the more likely buyers will use Amazon, as they tend to have the highest discount. There’s no way to know which estimate the Oricon number will be closer to, but it’s usually in the bottom half of the estimated range, and virtually always above the minimum estimate. Of course this varies depending on how a title is ranking outside of Amazon. Because the penalized estimate is the one Stalker makes most visible, I always use it as the default. But it’s worth making the unpenalized estimate more visible to reduce confusion.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses

This season has a number of shows with the potential to sell well, but a few of those weren’t solicited all that long ago and some are currently in the middle of boosts they aren’t likely to sustain, making guesses a bit hard. We also don’t know how the high price penalties will shake out.

• Idolish7 is obviously going to sell the most. Even if v3+ drop a lot after the event tickets end, it’s still going to average well ahead of everything else. Maybe by as much as 10k.

• Tourabu is also being heavily undersold here. While Katsugeki was not Animate-biased, Hanamaru was to a huge extent. If that holds this season, that 6.2k estimate is easily going to be 13-16k wk1. It’s my current guess for #2 of the season, though that’s not guaranteed.

• The two Fate/ series are significant unknowns at the moment. They’ve both got high estimates, but /Cooking was only solicited two weeks ago and /Extra barely a week ago. The latter only just started registering an estimate. Both of them are also extremely late releases, which may inflate the estimates considerably.

• Yurucamp is hands down the surprise of the season for me. Just the fact that a slice of life show is selling this well is uncommon, but for it to be one I love so much is wonderful. I do think it’s heavily Amazon biased, so hopefully it’s not overestimated even with the penalty.

• A couple other shows are performing better than I expected, notably Takagi-san and Yorimoi. Takagi-san has four different Amazon-exclusives where 2/3rds of the points are coming from, so it’s possible it’s heavily overestimated. The v2 estimate is a significant step down too. Hakumei to Mikochi is also doing surprisingly well, especially if it ends up at the higher end of its (quite wide) range.

• Im not sure what to think about CCS Clear Card. v1 was only solicited 2.5 weeks ago and in that time the estimate has consistently gone down. It’s also 8 volumes. But it’s doing well at other shops, so I dunno? Talking about averages for shows with this many volumes is kind of a fool’s errand.

Guesses are almost a total crap shoot right now, especially with two of the biggest titles being only recently solicited, so I wouldn’t call the below a terribly informed guess, especially since I’m trying to figure out averages…

01. IDOLiSH7

02. Zoku Touken Ranbu: Hanamaru

03. Emiya-san Chi no Kyou no Gohan

04. Fate/Extra Last Encore

05. Yuru Camp△

06. Overlord II

07. Pop Team Epic

08. Darling in the FranXX

09. Violet Evergarden

10. Cardcaptor Sakura: Clear Card-hen

I might be selling Takagi-san short, but the numbers for v1 just look pretty suspect unless it’s killing it outside of Amazon, which I don’t see evidence of. And I may be putting VEG too high but KyoAni shows tend to be some of the few to get good boosts from HMV. The Fate series may both be too high as well but it’s Fate so I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt (though with slightly more hesitation than I would have before Apocrypha’s mediocre performance). Also I’m really not really sure where to put PTE because I don’t know what kind of tail v1 is going to have.

All in all, this is shaping up to be a pretty decent season sales-wise in the mid-tier, though it’s possible there may only be two 10k shows, or even just one.