The delay means monsoon is now expected to arrive late in other parts of south and central India as well, whic... Read More

NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon , which was expected to arrive over Kerala five days later than its normal date of June 1, is likely to be further delayed by two days, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday.

The rain-bearing system is now likely to arrive over Kerala on June 8, a week later than its usual date. During its onset, monsoon first hits the Kerala coast before moving into the rest of the Indian mainland, usually in surges, over a period of around 45 days .

The delay means monsoon is now expected to arrive late in other parts of south and central India as well, which will adversely impact countrywide rainfall in June.

“Monsoon is likely to arrive five to seven days later than its usual dates in various parts of south and central India. It’s too early to predict monsoon’s progress beyond central India at the moment. But yes, all-India rainfall in June is expected to be below normal,” said D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD’s long range forecasting.

However, monsoon will likely hit northeast India within a day or two of its arrival over Kerala, IMD said.

Private forecaster Skymet, which had earlier projected June 4 as the likely date of monsoon’s onset over Kerala, has also revised its forecast to June 7.

In the past six years, monsoon’s arrival has not been delayed by more than a week. The latest arrival during this period was June 8 in 2016.

Meanwhile, the monsoon system, still over the seas at the moment, advanced further into some more parts of south Arabian Sea , most parts of Maldives-Comorin area and more parts of southwest Bay of Bengal, IMD said. The system had arrived over Andaman and Nicobar Islands around its normal date of May 18 but remained stalled over the region for a number of days due to unfavourable conditions.

“We seeing strengthening and deepening of cross equatorial flow, a feature of the monsoon. An east-west trough has also been established. But the westerlies need to have greater depth for monsoon to be declared. Although Kerala has been getting rain, monsoon is likely to be established only by Saturday,” Pai said.

While forecasting that monsoon this year is likely to be normal — although in the lower end of the range — IMD had stated that the first two months of the season (June and July) may not get good rains due to the presence of El Nino, a weather condition in the Pacific Ocean that often depresses the Indian monsoon. While a weak El Nino is projected to remain through the monsoon season, it is likely to be on the decline during the period.

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In Video: Monsoon may hit Kerala on June 8, says IMD