Expert: America 'one-sided' on climate change

Stanford University professor Jon Krosnick has been studying Americans' attitudes about global warming for nearly two decades and has found in repeated polls that a large majority see climate change as a threat to future generations that should be addressed.

Krosnick provided an overview of his research Tuesday in a speech at the Rancho Mirage Public Library, showing poll numbers that have remained relatively steady over the years.

"On this particular issue, America is remarkably one-sided," said Krosnick, a professor of psychology, communication and political science. "What we've found is between two thirds and three quarters of Americans have endorsed the idea that the planet has been warming over the last hundred years, that it's due at least partly to human activity, that it poses a threat to future generations, and that the federal government in particular should take actions to reduce the amount of warming that occurs in the future and to support preparation for the effects."

Krosnick has been involved in conducting about two dozen nationwide surveys focusing on climate change since 1997. He has partnered with news organizations ranging from USA TODAY to the Washington Post to track public opinion through telephone surveys.

One of the most recent polls, which was published in January by The New York Times, found that 74 percent of Americans said the federal government should be doing a substantial amount to combat climate change.

"Americans don't seem to be flitting around unstably from one moment to the next. They seem remarkably grounded in their opinions, and remarkably on one side in a way that's unprecedented in contemporary American politics," Krosnick said. "There is very little else in the political arena that Americans agree on as much, other than, let's say, their disapproval of Congress these days. So this is an unusual case in which there is a remarkable consensus and a strong signal being sent from the public to government."

Surveys have also found that a majority of Americans favor taking action to prepare for the effects of climate change rather than waiting and responding later. Krosnick said the percentage of those who favor preparation ranged from 61 percent to 82 percent depending on how the question was phrased, with the term "increase preparedness" producing a higher number than the terms "reduce vulnerability" or "reduce risk."

"The differences between reactions to words are not gigantic, but they are significant," Krosnick said.

The surveys have also have yielded some tips for scientists, he said. "What we found is that natural scientists should stick to talking about natural science, because when they begin to talk about public policy, public confidence in them declines, and public acceptance of their natural science opinions declines."

Krosnick visited the Coachella Valley as part of a speaker series organized by the Annenberg Retreat at Sunnylands.

He told the audience that when he presented the results of nationwide surveys to lawmakers in Washington a few years ago, some responded by saying that their constituents "think differently from the country as a whole."

But Krosnick said additional analysis of the data from the surveys showed that there "was not one single state in which a majority of the residents expressed skepticism about these issues."

Krosnick did not mention any of the lawmakers he met with by name.

Those who have denied that climate change is occurring include Sen. Jim Inhofe, the Oklahoma Republican who chairs the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.

The latest survey results, however, suggest that such a position could hurt some political candidates. In the January poll published by The New York Times, for instance, about two-thirds said they were more likely to cast ballots for candidates who pledge to fight climate change.

"The pressure on government is quite substantial. And to the degree that we watch government policy move in the direction of what the public asks for, that will be evidence of effective representation," Krosnick said. "If we do not see that movement happen, it raises a very interesting question about what other forces are operating and may be at work."

After his speech, one woman in the audience stood and asked Krosnick what he thinks about the political forces that may be working against government action on climate change.

"I get that question a lot," he said. "Remember like 15 minutes ago, I told you that climate scientists lose credibility when they step outside their area of expertise? I'm not going to step outside my area of expertise. So this is not something I've studied. It's not something I'm entitled to have an opinion on."

Ian James can be reached by email at ian.james@desertsun.com and on Twitter at @TDSIanJames.

Read The Desert Sun's series about how climate change is altering the desert Southwest: www.desertsun.com/scorchedearth