"A Stoic is a Buddhist with attitude, one who says 'f**k you' to fate"





"A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys 'with increasing confidence'. "









Some things are hurt by change, while others withstand it robustly. Nassim Nicholas Taleb challenges this dichotomy and introduces a third category, in his book: " Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder ".Exposure to some "harm" can help a system. Vaccinations can build resistance. We know that variation is one driver of evolution, but Taleb asks us to peek at a human through a microscope and see millions of cells. Then spot the analogy to evolution when a germ invades this "system". Some cells can handle the change, some can "evolve" to deal with it, others cannot -- the fittest survive, and the organism is healthier for it. "", says Taleb, extending the analogy to society. ( Niall Ferguson also compares Capitalism to evolution, and he echoes Schumpeter's " creative destruction ").." Body-builder Mike Mentzer advocated taking exercise "to failure". Taleb says this holds true for emotional setbacks, and much more. Passing through an episode makes us stronger. It is actually unclear if we can banish sadness without also banishing happiness, since we might have to banish valuing first. Taleb warns: "."Rigid, bureaucracies do not to gain from variation; instead, they opt for robustness. (I'm reminded of the typical "QA"/"ISO-9000" processes that typicallyproduct-quality.) Taleb argues that the problem is epistemological: "" overestimates of the power of knowledge centralized in a few actors. (Reminds me of a quote from investor Charles Gave (paraphrased): if I could predict the economy, then communism would have worked. Also parallel to Ludwig von Mises's argument that calculation is impossible under socialism .) Taleb himself draws a parallel to Smith's " invisible hand ", which he interprets as the power of distributed knowledge and decision-making. (Note the parallel to organisms.)Well-funded, formal education can transmit what is known, says Taleb, buttechnology mostly comes from individual tinkerers. Society and organizations must allow tinkerers to flourish despite assured, repeated failure.Theory, he says (mostly) comesobservation and practice. Children learn to ride a bike without knowing physics. Option traders were trading options before Black-Scholes. Jet engineers were creating engines ahead of the theory. Carpenters and architects were making intricate geometric shapes before they understood the theorems of geometry. Knowledge and theories come out of practice (proto-induction).Taleb criticises the education establishment for taking more credit than warranted: "bird lecturers" who claim credit for the graceful flight of the chicks they've lectured. However, the real danger is when they try to push rationalistic, or inadequate theory on practitioners. "". (Or, a Black-Scholes model can formalize only part of experiential knowledge, short-changing other useful aspects.)In the second half of the book Taleb goes into detail about many specific areas of accepted knowledge where he is skeptical: for instance, the efficacy of mammograms, the safety of fracking, diet-rules, and more. He tries to apply a somewhat paleo-fill-in-the-blank approach to everything. In this view, everything modern is suspect. How can you be sure there is not some hidden harm that will manifest itself down the road? He tells us: "". He sums up his attitude succinctly thus: "."This was tedious in parts, and I almost put the book down two chapters before the end. Still, Taleb does warn us that "Though Taleb builds on ideas from his previous books, he makes anambitious attempt to look at other facets, and also to apply his core idea to a very wide range of topics: finance, automatic-pilot, medicine, politics, child-rearing, epistemology and finally to ethics. The book is rich with anecdotes, wit and thought provoking arguments. It is his magnum-opus, an ambitious book that makes me want to ask him "What will you do with the rest of your life?"A decade ago, I'd have recoiled from every fourth paragraph in the second half of this book: from the hyperbole and the scepticism. Still, if Taleb encourages us to take"narratives" with a large pinch of salt, we should happily apply the principle to his own book, and take it for what it is. There is much value to be found. Yes, add it on your "to read" list... now.(the book is full of these)