McConnell has signaled that he's not interested in talking to Harry Reid. McConnell's bipartisanship blues

Mitch McConnell still hasn’t gotten over December’s traumatic fiscal cliff showdown.

The Senate minority leader has signaled privately that he has no interest in sitting in the same room as Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to discuss a possible “grand bargain” on budget and tax issues, Senate insiders tell POLITICO.


McConnell is fine with talking to Obama — just talking at this point — but he doesn’t want Reid there when it happens.

Such is life in Congress, where hope of bipartisanship is giving way to the same old toxic relations.

From the outside, the Senate appeared to have the bipartisan thing down this spring: so called “gangs” of senators have hashed out agreements on guns and immigration. President Barack Obama has had two dinners with Senate Republicans and traveled up to the Hill to meet with lawmakers from both chambers.

( PHOTOS: Mitch McConnell’s career and life)

But the good feelings have really been only in the Senate, and only among a minority of Republicans to boot. Bad blood remains between party leaders and the national partisan realities haven’t changed.

And while the leaders don’t get along, relationships among the other 98 senators will be tested when voting begins on the controversial gun and immigration measures — starting with this week’s expected vote on expanding background checks for firearms purchases. McConnell plans to pull out all the stops to block the bill, and GOP senators are blasting any immigration plan that they say smells of “amnesty.”

That’s just the Senate. House Republicans, their own seats made even safer by redistricting, are in no hurry bring up immigration, gun control or revenue issues or cave in to Obama or Democrats.

( Also on POLITICO: Business groups peel off as immigration details leak)

In May, House Republicans will hold what they are dubbing a “special conference” to plan for the summer’s policy fights with Democrats, similar to their January meeting in Williamsburg, Va., in which they successfully recalibrated early year budget fights, according to GOP leadership aides.

“I don’t see this as a wave and there’s something in the water that has us changed,” said Rep. James Lankford of Oklahoma, chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee.

Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland seemed to agree.

“On the House side, unfortunately you got a very knee-jerk ideologically rigid caucus for the most part,” said Van Hollen, the top Democrat on the Budget Committee. “The most active part of the House Republican Caucus is the tea party movement. They still dominate the discussion.”

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The GOP’s meeting in May is likely to center around the debt ceiling, which could be another high-stakes summer showdown with Obama. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and the leadership are likely to present a few scenarios to the conference and see which one sticks.

How that works out may depend on what — if anything — House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and his Senate counterpart Patty Murray (D-Wash.) do on a budget conference committee that addresses entitlements, debts and taxes. Both the House and Senate passed budget resolutions, but the two sides remain far apart on spending, taxes and reforming entitlement programs.

If Murray and Ryan move ahead with talks yet fail to come to some sort of final deal, it would be an embarrassing setback.

If the two lawmakers — guided by their leadership — decide to skip negotiations altogether, it could be viewed as an ultimate abdication of responsibility, especially after Boehner and other Republicans made hay over the fact the Democratic-run Senate hadn’t passed a budget in years.

“I’d love to see a budget conference. I’m doubtful,” Lankford said. “It’s the first time in four years that the Senate’s done a budget at all. To be able to take it to conference would be a whole different deal.”

“Zero,” was Republican Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt’s response when asked about the prospects of a House-Senate deal on the budget. “There’s no chance.”

A budget failure would put outsize importance on the debt ceiling and the possibility of a U.S. default on its $16 trillion-plus debt. The Treasury Department is set to hit its borrowing limit in late summer, and Obama has repeatedly declared that he will not negotiate with GOP leaders for another debt increase. Some GOP aides think that deadline could slip until September.

House Republicans have an updated view of the gamesmanship around lifting the nation’s borrowing cap, GOP aides say.

They will pass a bill from Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) in the next few weeks that would prioritize debt payments in case of default. House GOP aides hope it is far enough away from the debt ceiling deadline that financial markets won’t see such a move as an act of political desperation.

On the Senate side, McConnell and other top Republicans — opposed to a bipartisan deal by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) to expand background checks to all commercial sales and close the so-called “gun show loophole” — are trying to craft poison pill amendments that could sink the agreement.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is drafting an alternative gun bill that could peel away GOP support, and McConnell may attempt to force votes on allowing guns in federal buildings and national parks, or the creation of a national “concealed carry” standard.

The goal: force red-state Democrats up for reelection in 2014 to pressure Reid to pull the bill.

Reid will need 60 votes to advance the Manchin-Toomey plan, giving McConnell enormous leverage, especially since the majority leader can’t count on his entire caucus to support the bill.

Several red-state Democrats, including Sens. Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Max Baucus of Montana, are considered potential “no” votes. Newly elected Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) is also a swing vote.

Begich and Pryor, up for reelection in 2014, voted with Republicans last week in an unsuccessful bid to continue a filibuster blocking debate on the current Democrat-drafted gun bill, while Baucus and Heitkamp agreed to allow the debate to proceed. Democrats picked up 16 Republicans on that cloture vote, a victory for Obama and gun-control forces.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.), who has serious health problems, is expected to remain at home this week, costing Reid another badly needed vote.

“I think it’s an open question as to whether or not we have the votes. I think it’s going to be close,” Toomey said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the majority whip, said on “Fox News Sunday” that Democrats “haven’t whipped” the Manchin-Toomey agreement yet, but it is clear that Democrats remain short of the 60-vote threshold at this point. A vote could come in midweek, Democrats said.

So far, only four of 45 Senate Republicans — Toomey and Sens. Mark Kirk of Illinois, Susan Collins of Maine and John McCain of Arizona — have come out in support of the bipartisan proposal, or are leaning toward voting “yes.”

GOP senators face a dual-edged sword if they back the Manchin-Toomey agreement. It could open up future primary challenges by National Rifle Association-supported candidates, jeopardizing their own careers. And Boehner has shown no support for the plan, meaning senators may have cast a risky vote that doesn’t have a chance of becoming law.

On the immigration front, while the bipartisan Gang of Eight that includes Durbin and Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), have the outline of a deal that could reach the Senate floor this summer, the knives are already out from the right as “amnesty for illegal immigrants.”

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) blasted the proposal on “Fox News Sunday,” and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a GOP rising star, has also criticized the plan.

“They have produced legislation, it appears … that will give amnesty now, legalize everyone that’s here effectively today and then there’s a promise of enforcement in the future,” Sessions said.

The bipartisan proposal would dramatically rewrite U.S. visa laws, provide a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented immigrants believed to be in the country, as well as beefing up border security. Immigrants in the country illegally now would have to pay taxes and a fine, wait for 10 years, and only then get the chance — but no guarantee — of a green card.

A Senate Judiciary Committee hearing is scheduled for Wednesday with a markup next month.

Rubio — a potential 2016 GOP presidential candidate — appeared on a record seven Sunday talk shows to defend it.

“That is not amnesty,” Rubio insisted on “Fox News Sunday.” “Amnesty is the forgiveness of something.”

Manu Raju contributed to this report.

Correction: The House debt prioritization bill by Republicans is authored by Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.).

CORRECTION: Corrected by: Andrea Drusch @ 04/15/2013 08:38 AM Correction: The House debt prioritization bill Republicans is authored by Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.).