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Ridiculously Early Mountain West Basketball 2019-20 Preview, Standings Prediction

Our first glance at the 2019-20 Mountain West basketball season

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Ridiculously early Mountain West basketball ’19-20 preview

The 2018-19 Mountain West basketball season has concluded. With Nevada and Utah State getting bounced in the round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament, each of the 11 MW programs are thinking about the offseason.

We begin our offseason content with a ridiculously early look at next season.

Air Force

Returning starters (5): Lavelle Scottie, Ryan Swan, A.J. Walker, Sid Tomes, Keaton Van Soelen

Impact returnees (2): Christopher Joyce, Caleb Morris

Key losses (0): none

Notable additions (0): none

The 2019-20 season could be a special one for the Falcons. Air Force returns eight of the nine players that started a game this past year, the only exception being the outgoing Pervis Louder (3.6 PPG). The Mountain West’s sixth-place finisher in ’18-19 will shoot for a winning conference record for the first time since 2007 thanks to talented frontcourt duo of Lavelle Scottie (15.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Ryan Swan (12.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG). Watch out for this Dave Pilipovich-led squad that has a knack to surprise some people.

Projected order of finish: 5th

Boise State

Returning starters (4): Justinian Jessup, Derrick Alston, Alex Hobbs, Marcus Dickinson

Impact returnees (1): R.J. Williams

Key losses (1): Zach Haney

Notable additions (1): Abu Kigab (Oregon transfer)

Leon Rice and the Broncos had an uncharacteristically bad year, failing to notch 20 or more victories for the first time since 2012. Boise State was faced with the task of bouncing back from replacing three starters including BSU legend Chandler Hutchison, so it was no surprise the ’18-19 campaign was a bit of a rebuild. Next year’s team should be much improved, though. First off, the Broncos can only be more lucky than they were this past season (dead last in KenPom’s “luck” metric nationally), while Zach Haney and David Wacker are the only key rational losses while they add Oregon transfer Abu Kigab and bring everyone else back. Twenty wins is yet again a possibility in Boise.

Projected order of finish: 4th

Colorado State

Returning starters (3): Nico Carvacho, Kendle Moore, Adam Thistlewood

Impact returnees (3): Anthony Masinton-Bonner, Kris Martin, Deion James

Key losses (1): J.D. Paige

Notable additions (0): none

There were some positives, sure, but the first year of the Niko Medved era didn’t go quite as planned. CSU’s longest win streak of the season was three games and the team never really seemed to have that much positive momentum. Colorado State now has to play the wait-and-see game with guys potentially transferring out of the program, hoping as much talent as possible returns to Fort Collins. If everyone does come back, CSU has one of the better rosters in the conference. Nico Carvacho is fresh off a season where he averaged 16 a night and led the country in rebounds while freshmen Kendle Moore and Adam Thistlewood combined to start 56 games.

Projected order of finish: 8th

Fresno State

Returning starters (2): Nate Grimes, Noah Blackwell

Impact returnees (2): New Williams, Aguir Agau

Key losses (3): Deshon Taylor, Braxton Huggins, Sam Bittner

Notable additions (3): Assane Diouf (redshirt), Jordan Campbell (Oregon State transfer), Chris Seeley (Utah transfer)

Replacing three senior starters won’t be easy, let alone a trio that knocked down 39.9 percent of its 526 three-point attempts. Justin Hutson will enter his second year in Fresno with a tougher job than his first, but he does have some help coming in. Big man Assane Diouf should be ready to go following his redshirt season while Pac-12 transfers Jordan Campbell and Chris Seeley also expect to make an impact. If Nate Grimes continues to improve as he did this past season, he’s a legit all-Mountain West guy in ’19-20. The returners will have to step up or Fresno State will fall back into the middle tier of the conference.

Projected order of finish: 7th

Nevada

Returning starters (0): none

Impact returnees (3): Jazz Johnson, Jordan Brown, Lindsey Drew

Key losses (6): Caleb Martin, Cody Martin, Jordan Caroline, Trey Porter, Tre’Shawn Thurman, Corey Henson

Notable additions (3): Jalen Harris (Louisiana Tech transfer), JoJo Anderson (Northern Arizona transfer), Eric Parrish (Akron transfer), K.J. Hymes (redshirt)

Talk about a make-or-break season in Reno. Nevada loses about as much production as any team ever has in college basketball history, but still has the pieces to contend for a fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament bid assuming Eric Musselman is still on the sidelines. Jazz Johnson is back, a sharpshooter that probably wasn’t used as much as he should have this past season. Redshirted do-it-all guy Lindsey Drew will man the point guard duties and McDonald’s All-American Jordan Brown is a force down low. Combine that with scorers Jalen Harris and JoJo Anderson as well as the grad transfers the Wolf Pack figure to pick up and you have another solid roster. The ceiling won’t be as high as it was the past two years, but Nevada will still be really, really good. It probably won’t come together overnight, though.

Projected order of finish: 2nd

New Mexico

Returning starters (2): Carlton Bragg, Makuach Maluach

Impact returnees (3): Vance Jackson, Corey Manigault, Keith McGee

Key losses (2): Dane Kuiper, Anthony Mathis

Notable additions (3): JaQuan Lyle (redshirt), Zane Martin (Towson transfer), J.J. Caldwell (Texas A&M transfer)

The 2018-19 season was one of the most disappointing and frustrating in recent New Mexico memory. Pegged to finish top three in the Mountain West and compete for an NCAA Tournament bid, the Lobos crashed and burned to a 14-18 (7-11) campaign and were the only team to lose to San Jose State in league competition. The skepticism started when Ohio State transfer JaQuan Lyle went down with a season-ending Achilles injury in the preseason. Next year’s squad won’t lack talent. Lyle, a former five-star, will be part of a lineup that features former five-star and Kansas transfer Carlton Bragg, former four-star and UConn transfer Vance Jackson, and three guys who averaged more than nine points per game (Makuach Maluach, Corey Manigault, Keith McGee). The big question is whether Paul Weir can get all the puzzle pieces to fit. This past season he was brutally unsuccessful.

Projected order of finish: 6th

San Diego State

Returning starters (3): Jalen McDaniels, Matt Mitchell, Nathan Mensah

Impact returnees (1): Jordan Schakel

Key losses (2): Devin Watson, Jeremy Hemsley

Notable additions (3): Malachi Flynn (Washington State transfer), K.J. Feagin (Santa Clara transfer), Keshad Johnson (3* recruit)

So much rides on Jalen McDaniels’ NBA Draft decision as well as if his brother Jaden, a top five recruit for the upcoming class, opts to choose San Diego State. If both guys are on campus in ’19-20, SDSU has at least a top 25 roster in the country. If not, the Aztecs are probably going to pegged to make the NIT in the spring. Senior leaders Devin Watson and Jeremy Hemsley are bigger losses than just their per-game stat lines indicate. Fewer teams in the Mountain West, however, add as much as SDSU next fall. Transfers Malachi Flynn (15.8 PPG, 4.3 APG, 1.6 SPG) and K.J. Feagin (17.5 PPG, 4.0 APG) are standout guards while three-star forward Keshad Johnson will deepen the young Aztec frontcourt.

Projected order of finish: 3rd

San Jose State

Returning starters (0): none

Impact returnees (3): Brae Ivey, Craig LeCesne, Seneca Knight

Key losses (3): Michael Steadman, Noah Baumann, Oumar Barry

Notable additions (2): Caleb Simmons (redshirt), Samuel Japhet-Mathias (redshirt)

Yikes. San Jose State doesn’t bring back any player that started more than 20 times in ’18-19 as both Michael Steadman and Noah Baumann have already announced that they will transfer. This continues SJSU’s ridiculous trend of losing every single double-digit scorer to transfer since the end of the 2017 season. So where do the Spartans go from here? For now, it appears that Jean Prioleau will be back for year three. He’s won four games apiece in both of his first two seasons and again has to figure out how to build an even moderately competitive team in ’19-20. It won’t be easy.

Projected order of finish: 11th

UNLV

Returning starters (0): none

Impact returnees (3): Amauri Hardy, Nick Blair, Bryce Hamilton

Key losses (6): Noah Robotham, Kris Clyburn, Joel Ntambwe, Mbacke Diong, Shakur Juiston, Jonathan Tchamwa

Notable additions (1): Louis Bangai (redshirt)

Things have already spiraled out of control since UNLV terminated Marvin Menzies earlier this month after three years with the Rebels. UNLV already has to replace five of its top six scorers and find a formidable head coach that is not only capable but also willing to rebuild this ailing program. The roster, in many ways, is going to look somewhat similar to what it was in the first year of Menzies’ tenure after the complete teardown that spring. Unless it pulls a rabbit out a hat, UNLV will again be staring down the bottom of the Mountain West ladder for the second time in four years.

Projected order of finish: 10th

Utah State

Returning starters (3): Sam Merrill, Neemias Queta, Brock Miller

Impact returnees (4): Abel Porter, Diogo Brito, Crew Ainge, Justin Bean

Key losses (2): Quinn Taylor, Dwayne Brown

Notable additions (1): Alphonso Anderson (JUCO transfer)

The conference’s big surprise this past season was Utah State, picked ninth in the preseason media poll before winding up with 28 wins and an NCAA Tournament appearance under first-year head coach Craig Smith. Most of the pieces are back to build off the special season, including the league’s best duo in Sam Merrill and Neemias Queta. JUCO transfer Alphonso Anderson is the notable addition for next fall, a swingman who is a former three-star recruit. As long as Queta doesn’t leave for the NBA and Utah State doesn’t suffer any major losses this offseason, the Aggies could see their name in the preseason top 25 and should be a lock atop the preseason Mountain West projections. Everything came together in ’18-19 perfectly, but can Smith and company do the same in ’19-20? Only time will tell.

Projected order of finish: 1st

Wyoming

Returning starters (2): Hunter Thompson, Trevon Taylor

Impact returnees (5): Jake Hendricks, Hunter Maldonado, Trace Young, A.J. Banks, Austin Mueller

Key losses (3): Justin James, Jordan Naughton, Ny Redding

Notable additions (1): Bradley Belt (redshirt)

The seat has already heated up a bit for Allen Edwards, the head coach behind Wyoming’s worst season since the 1950’s. It’s not going to get much easier as the Cowboys lose do-it-all superstar Justin James, which led the team in scoring, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. As bad as the season was in Laramie, there were a few bright spots out of freshmen Hunter Thompson and Trace Young as well as the sharpshooting from Jake Hendricks. The team will be more experienced next season, but saying goodbye to a player like Justin James can’t be stressed enough.

Projected order of finish: 9th

Eli Boettger is the lead basketball writer at Mountain West Wire. He’s covered Mountain West basketball since 2015 and his work has been featured on Bleacher Report, NBC Sports, SB Nation, Yahoo Sports, MSN, and other platforms. Boettger is a current USBWA member.

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