ABC election analyst Antony Green has called the seat of Dubbo for the National Party, delivering the Berejiklian Government a 47th seat and a majority in the NSW Lower House.

Key points: NSW's Coalition has lost at least four seats

NSW's Coalition has lost at least four seats Labor won two of those, while the others went to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

Labor won two of those, while the others went to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Ms Berejiklian is the first woman in NSW to win a state election

Green said that while preference counts for the early voting centres were not yet available, "the current first-preference tallies in the centres, combined with available preference flows and scrutineer reports all point to Nationals candidate Dugald Saunders winning the seat by around 1,500 votes".

The win takes the Coalition to 47 seats in the 93-seat chamber — enough to govern without relying on cross-bench support.

The Nationals retained Dubbo, despite a swing of almost 20 per cent against them.

Mr Saunders succeeds former Nationals leader and NSW Deputy Premier Troy Grant, who announced in July he would not be contesting the election.

Mr Saunders said it was "fantastic news" that Green had called him as the new member for Dubbo, but he was waiting for final numbers and perhaps for Independent Mathew Dickerson to concede.

"I'm feeling really good now, but I need final figures to be in," he said.

"It's great that Antony has called it and I'm delighted to think … the seat of Dubbo can be the one that tips the Berejiklian Government over into a majority Government — I'm just hoping that it officially happens maybe this afternoon."

Just four seats changed hands this election: Barwon, Murray, Lismore and Coogee.

The Sydney seat of East Hills was on Monday night retained by the Liberal Party, with almost 82 per cent of the vote there counted.

Labor won the seat of Lismore, taking it to 36 seats in the Lower House.

It also bagged the seat of Coogee, which was previously held by the Liberals with a margin of 2.9 per cent.

Lismore, was previously narrowly held by the Nationals with a 0.2 per cent margin.

It is the latest seat the Nationals have lost — along with Barwon and Murray which both fell to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF).

The National's poor performance has prompted some Liberal MPs to question the strength of the alliance.

What now for the Federal election?

Green said the Nationals lost a significant number of rural voters, down 3.7 per cent from last election.

"That's been the difficulty for the National Party is their loss in country NSW," he said.

The SFF gained 11.2 per cent of the regional votes.

Overall, votes for the Liberals, Nationals, Labor and Greens were down — with the Liberal vote falling the greatest, by 2.6 percent.

Green said he was "not convinced" that the state election results — in particular the SFF wins in Barwon and Murray — would be replicated at the looming federal election.

The two seats, which cover about 60 per cent of the state geographically, also cover the federal seats of Parkes and Farrer.

"You can imagine, with the right candidate, the SFF would be causing the National Party a bit of grief for the federal election," Green said.

But as federal elections involve full preferential voting, he was not convinced the SFF would be as competitive in May.

"Plus I think Labor would put more effort into a federal election into these country seats in an effort to ensure their centre position," he said.