We’re only a quarter of the way through the 2015 NFL season, with almost all of the 32 teams having played four games, and some teams have started hot. But it’s safe to say there are already some big disappointments in this young season.

The Miami Dolphins, who many picked to contend in the AFC East and make the playoffs, fired head coach Joe Philbin on Monday. I didn’t have the Dolphins in the playoffs when I made my preseason predictions, but I did think they would battle the Buffalo Bills for second place in the division. And I believe a change was necessary after the Dolphins got off to a 1-3 start this season. Another disappointment this season has been the poor play of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (I’ve long said I think he has talent, but he’s overrated). That being said, I didn’t think Kaepernick would be this bad this season. There have been other teams and players who have underperformed thus far this season, but the Indianapolis Colts offense has been the biggest disappointment.

Many experts and fans predicted that the Colts would make it to the Super Bowl this season. I didn’t go quite that far, but I did have Indy in the AFC Championship game in my preseason predictions. Coming into the season I felt that the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots were the two strongest teams in the AFC, but based on the seeding I predicted, the Patriots and Steelers would play each other in the Divisional Round. And yes, I also thought that quarterback Andrew Luck and company had enough offensive talent to get Indy to the AFC Title game.

With one of the better young quarterbacks in the league in Luck, and weapons like running back Frank Gore and wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson, it looked like the Colts had the offensive fire power to hang with anyone in the NFL this season. But through four games in 2015 the Colts are averaging 337.8 total yards per game (21st) and 18.0 points per game (26th) on offense. In 2014 Indy averaged 406.6 total yards per game (third) and 28.6 points per game (sixth) on offense. Those are some serious drop-offs, especially when the Colts added Gore and Johnson this offseason. Both were expected to help the offense get to another level, but that has not happened. Instead, only five teams are averaging fewer points per game than the Colts this season (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are tied with Indy at 18.0 points per game).

This is Johnson’s 13th year in the NFL, but his first in Indy, after he spent his 12 years in the league with the Houston Texans where he was one of the best receivers in the league. In four games this season Johnson has seven catches on 20 targets for 51 yards and no touchdowns. True, Luck did not play on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars because of a hurt shoulder, but that doesn’t explain why the Colts were only averaging 18.6 points per game with Luck on the field.

Johnson isn’t the only member of the Colts offense who is struggling so far. Luck did miss the one game, but he’s thrown for 753 yards with five touchdowns and seven interceptions in the three games he started. That puts the former Stanford Cardinal on pace for 3,012 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. Luck appears to have all the talent and intelligence to be one of the game’s best, but it isn’t happening so far this season.

The team would benefit if their defense improved as well, because as of right now, they are allowing 387.5 total yards per game (27th) and 23.3 points per game (T-15th). But the play of the defense isn’t as big of a surprise or disappointment as what is happening on offense in Indianapolis. If the Colts want to win the AFC South again and make a deep postseason run (like to the Super Bowl), the offense must get exponentially better.