NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Worries about Ukraine are on the rise, triggering a mild reaction in global financial markets Thursday after armed men took control of a regional parliament in the Crimea region of the country following the ouster of the country’s pro-Kremlin president by pro-Western demonstrations.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s new government has requested an International Monetary Fund bailout.

So do investors have anything to worry about? Here’s what you need to know:

Global stocks

Wall Street quickly put Ukraine concerns on the back burner, with U.S. stocks rallying and the S&P 500 SPX, -1.11% setting a record close. Earlier, stock-index futures had faced a modicum of pressure tied to Ukraine. Investors typically “sell first and ask questions later,” notes Andrew Wilkinson, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Conn. While the situation offers some “political risk” it would likely take a major escalation of events to exert a major influence.

Ukrainian men help pull one another out of a stampede as a flag of Crimea is seen during clashes at rallies held by ethnic Russians and Crimean Tatars near the Crimean parliament building in Simferopol, Ukraine. Reuters

Think something along the lines of Russian military intervention in an effort to aid the secession from Ukraine of the country’s pro-Russian southern region. While Russia is engaging in saber rattling by, for example, conducting military exercises near its border with Ukraine, it will likely take something more belligerent to put a lasting scare into the market.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his government to consult with foreign governments and the IMF on aid for Ukraine, news reports said late Thursday.

“Should there be a serious confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine, political risk premiums would rise in Russia and in Europe and would likely lead to a general pullback in global equity markets,” said Bill Witherell, chief global economist at Cumberland Advisors, in a note.

But without a big showdown, Ukraine has only “limited potential to deliver a negative surprise sufficient to produce financial contagion in markets,” he wrote.

Currencies, gold

A major confrontation, however, could also do harm to the Russian economy, strategists note, which may end up restraining the Kremlin. Indeed, the Russian ruble USDRUB, +0.00% took a big hit in the wake of the events in the Crimea, trading at its weakest level versus the U.S. dollar in five years.

Gold, a traditional haven in times of international turmoil, found some support Thursday. But the reaction was pretty mild, with April futures US:GCJ4 up just $3.10, or 0.2%, to $1,331.10 an ounce.

If anything, gold’s rise was restrained as the dollar also enjoys some haven-related buying. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the currency more expensive to nondollar users.

The dollar saw a modest rise in Asian and European trading hours, but has turned lower versus the euro. The Japanese yen, which is viewed as even more of haven, remains stronger versus the greenback.

Emerging markets

Ukraine’s problems add to concerns surrounding emerging markets, which are dealing with political and economic problems in places like Turkey and India as well. Ukraine was already in dire economic straits before the latest round of turmoil.

Economists led by Willem Buiter at Citi on Thursday cut their forecast for global growth in 2014 to 3.1% from around 3.3%, while again trimming the outlook for emerging-market economies.

European banks

European equities saw modest losses Thursday, pulling back from multiyear highs as analysts tied the weakness in part to Ukraine worries.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Thursday said the institution will send a fact-finding team to Kiev in coming days while beginning discussions over the policy reforms that “could form the basis of a Fund-supported program.”

Alberto Gallo, credit strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland, warns that ongoing deterioration in emerging-market economies and rising bad loans in Eastern Europe add to reasons to short Austrian banks. Ukraine has called for international help to avoid default.

Meanwhile, Austrian banks Raffeisen Bank International RBI, -2.01% and Bank Austria, a subsidiary of Italy’s UniCredit UCG, -3.12% both own Ukrainian subsidiaries and are exposed to rising bad loans in the region. Around 4.4% of Raffeisen’s loan book is in Ukraine, where nearly a third of loans are classified as nonperforming, Gallo said, citing third-quarter filings.

“A sharp rise in bad loans and/or a sovereign default could hurt both banks,” he said.

Energy markets

Energy markets may offer the most likely market flashpoint. Russia has twice in the past decade shut off natural-gas exports to Ukraine in disputes with pro-Western Ukrainian governments. A 2009 confrontation saw gas supplies to much of Western Europe choked off. Oil futures saw modest losses Thursday, though Nymex WTI futures remain above $100 a barrel.

Armed activists take control of Crimea parliament

The previous gas cutoffs served to anger Gazprom’s Western European customers, noted Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

Still, the Ukraine situation “is making short positions across the energy complex more, shall we say, complex,” Flynn said, in a note.

“The ace card that Russia holds over the region is its natural gas exports. Traders have to determine whether that can trust Russia’s pledge to keep the gas flowing,” he said, noting that Russia supplies 31% of European Union gas imports, 27% of crude-oil imports, 24% of coal imports and 30% of uranium imports.

Finally, the turmoil could also impact grain markets. As MarketWatch columnist Amotz Asa-El notes, Ukraine grain exports were forecast to grow by more than a third this year to 31.8 billion tons, which would place it second in the world behind the United States.

Tensions could make it difficult to ship grain through Russian seaports, while over the longer run, a Ukraine breakup could undercut efforts to modernize the farm sector.

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