This week in ‘Three things to look for’: The final eight is set and that’s that; fourth spot is well and truly open, and a simple test to spot a liar. Here’s what’s coming in Round 25…

Beware those selling false hope

At this time of the season we tend to hear the term ‘mathematically possible’ a lot. Usually it’s used to keep stories of finals drama bubbling along, but most folks will know that it’s also a proxy for the term ‘no chance’.

Right now it’s ‘mathematically possible’ that one or both of the New Zealand Warriors (ninth) and Wests Tigers (10th) will shake off their mediocrity, win their last two games, have other results go their way and take one of the last two positions in the finals.

It’s also ‘mathematically possible’ that I’ll eat more fruit, swim the English channel and finally get around to building that deck in the back yard that my wife is after.

Last week, the injured and staggering Tigers were flogged 40-10 by a surging Penrith while the Warriors played a bunch of kids in their tired, error-prone 34-6 beating in North Queensland. Neither team look remotely worthy of finals football and to be honest, neither team look like they want to play one minute more than they are obliged for 2016.

Yet because this finals place is ‘mathematically possible,’ there are calculations being made, hopes being raised and straws being clutched at across the league world that we could have a late finals surge.

Fortunately, this Sunday the Tigers travel to New Zealand, so one of these stories will come to their end. If rugby league had a sense of pity, we’d see a draw that puts both sides out of their (and our) misery.

Unfortunately, this Saturday the Gold Coast Titans (eighth) play Penrith (seventh), a game that could well give us another week of speculation, false hope and calculations. Look for Penrith to win, and a final week focused on mathematical possibilities for the Warriors and the Titans.

One door closes…

Just two weeks ago it looked like no one could bridge the gap between the top four and the lower parts of the eight. The Raiders were on a tear, the Bulldogs were doing what they needed to do (and not much else) while the Broncos and Cowboys had dropped off a cliff to occupy fifth and sixth.

All of a sudden, the Queensland clubs have come to life. North Queensland had lost three games on the trot before having their way with the New Zealand Warriors in Townsville. It was a performance to send a few shivers around the place – Jason Taumalolo was a destroyer, the rest of the forwards chewed up metres and most importantly, halves Johnathon Thurston and Michael Morgan worked their way back to some kind of form after a lean spell. It was a great win, sure. But it was against the Warriors.

This Thursday the Cowboys have a five-day turnaround, interstate travel and a game at Belmore against the fourth placed Bulldogs. Win, and they’re fourth. But it can be reasonably said that they are well and truly against it.

A win by Canterbury will see off the threat from the Cowboys but they will still have work to do to secure their place in the four.

Friday night’s game sees Brisbane in very unfamiliar territory, playing a Friday away game (you can be sure heads will roll at NRL HQ once they find the person responsible). Brisbane play a Melbourne team highly unlikely to be caught on top of the ladder and just marking time until real football starts. The Broncos have won three straight after a horror midseason period, perking up with finals well ands truly in sight.

If Brisbane win, they leave a sliver of opportunity to finish the season in fourth. Last time they played the Storm, they were manhandled on their own turf to the tune of 48-6. Wayne Bennett certainly hasn’t forgotten that. Look for the Broncos to make a statement heading into the finals action.

How to spot a liar

Got a sneaking feeling one of your mates isn’t always completely honest with you? Looking for a subtle method to find out if they are on the up and up? Let me help you out with a foolproof test to find out who among your friends is full of it. All you need ask is:

“Did you think both the Roosters and Souths would miss the finals this year?”

If they reply ‘yes’, you’ve got them pegged. Coming into season 2016 on the back of three straight J.J. Giltinan Shield minor premiership wins, the Roosters had a truly appalling start to the season for reasons well covered elsewhere.

South Sydney, on the other hand, had a poor finish to 2015 but still played finals and even this year were in finals contention at the mid point of this season. Their 2016 nadir was a rock-bottom round 21 performance against Canberra, going down by 50 points. In the three games since, they lost in golden point to the Storm in Melbourne, flogged the Warriors in New Zealand and last week beat second placed Cronulla.

We have two reasonably experienced, undoubtedly quality teams that are languishing in the lower reaches of the table. Lately though, they have started to rediscover some form and you get the sense they are enjoying being able to play a spoiler role for teams looking to assert their position in the eight.

This week the Roosters look for their third win in a row against Cronulla. The Sharks are cruising, waiting for finals time but after the loss to Souths they find themselves a chance to drop to third, releasing their grip on a week one home final. Look for the Roosters to continue making mischief.