Another week, another very interesting Tavern Brawl to analyze. Far more popular than the Captain Blackheart brawl, users on HSReplay.net played over 16000 games over the course of the brawl.

The rules:

Each player starts with a randomly-generated deck of 15 cards for their class

Before their first draw, players get to “discover” one of three other classes and shuffle 15 more cards of that class to their deck.

The “second class” twist adds another interesting dimension to winrates as we now look at class pairs, although with the possible combinations of 9 starting heroes and 8 possible second picks for each player, that makes for 5184 possible different starting games! We would have needed at least 50000-100000 games to draw solid conclusions from those.

It is also worth noting that the opponent’s “discarded” second class choices were not available for the player to see, so we could only gauge popularity from the friendly player.

Class winrates and popularity

Paladin had by far the best cards for this brawl, with a 55% overall base winrate and 52% overall second-pick winrate.

First Hero Winrate Popularity PALADIN 55% 12% MAGE 54% 17% DRUID 53% 11% HUNTER 49% 11% ROGUE 49% 10% SHAMAN 49% 8% WARLOCK 46% 11% WARRIOR 46% 10% PRIEST 45% 10%

Picked Class Winrate Popularity PALADIN 52% 15% DRUID 51% 13% WARRIOR 51% 9% HUNTER 50% 12% MAGE 50% 19% PRIEST 49% 10% SHAMAN 49% 9% ROGUE 48% 9% WARLOCK 47% 6%

Class pair winrates and popularity

As we saw above, Paladin and Mage are the uncontested winners of this brawl.

Best pairs

1st / 2nd Hero Winrate Popularity PALADIN / WARRIOR 59.6% 1.3% MAGE / PALADIN 57.8% 3.2% PALADIN / MAGE 57.4% 2.9% MAGE / HUNTER 56.6% 2.6% ROGUE / PALADIN 56.3% 1.5%

Worst pairs

1st / 2nd Hero Winrate Popularity WARRIOR / WARLOCK 42.1% 0.5% WARRIOR / HUNTER 42.0% 1.1% PRIEST / DRUID 41.9% 1.3% PRIEST / WARLOCK 39.2% 0.8% HUNTER / PRIEST 39.0% 0.7%

Most popular pairs

1st / 2nd Hero Winrate Popularity MAGE / PALADIN 57.8% 3.2% PALADIN / MAGE 57.4% 2.9% MAGE / HUNTER 56.6% 2.6% MAGE / DRUID 55.4% 2.6% DRUID / MAGE 52.4% 2.4%

Least popular pairs

1st / 2nd Hero Winrate Popularity HUNTER / PRIEST 39.0% 0.7% DRUID / WARLOCK 49.7% 0.6% ROGUE / WARLOCK 43.6% 0.5% WARRIOR / WARLOCK 42.1% 0.5% SHAMAN / WARLOCK 50.3% 0.5%

We are already working on the next brawl: Top 3.

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The HSReplay.net team