There’s a problem for the federal Conservative Party in Justin Trudeau’s nosedive: The badly damaged PM may not survive long enough as Liberal leader to lead his party into the next election. And that would end the Conservatives’ best chance of defeating the government.

There is talk in Liberal circles (and so far I’m sure it’s just talk) that Trudeau needs to be replaced before the fall campaign or the government will lose.

Distroscale

Polling numbers are discouraging enough for the Liberals as a party. Since the SNC-Lavalin scandal broke in early February, they have seen their electoral fortunes reverse.

Where once their popularity was in the high 30s and the Tories’ in the low 30s, the reverse is now the case.

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And the regional breakdowns are even more gloomy for the Liberals. For instance, the Liberals seem to have lost the support of swing voters in the suburban ring around Toronto (commonly referred to by its area code, the 905). And they have lost support in southwestern Ontario, too. They remain strong in downtown Toronto (quelle surprise), but that is skewing their overall Ontario numbers, making the Liberals look stronger across the province than they truly are.

The poll-tracking site 338canada.com says that based on an average of all the main polls, the Tories are headed for a sizable minority of 164 seats (170 are needed for a majority).

Trudeau’s personal numbers, though, are even worse than his party’s.

U.S. President Donald Trump is significantly more popular in the U.S. than Trudeau is here. Yes, you read that correctly: Donald Trump is noticeably more popular than Justin Trudeau.

Forty-two percent of Americans have a favourable opinion of their president, while just 36% of Canadians approve of Trudeau. And while nearly 53% of Americans disapprove of Trump, a staggering 63% of Canadians have given up on the Liberal leader.

That means Trudeau’s net rating is -27 compared with Trump’s at -11.

And those ratings were registered before Trudeau’s smug, sneering dismissal of First Nations protesters at an upper-crust Liberal fundraiser in Toronto on Wednesday. Trudeau called out facetiously to a female protester who was being removed by security, “Thank you very much for your donation tonight. I really appreciate it!”

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Even the establishment magazine Maclean’s on a recent cover referred to Trudeau as “The Imposter.”

The bloom has truly come off the Trudeau rose, which is no real surprise to those of us who felt from the start he was a cardboard cut-out of a leader, trading on his good looks and famous name. But it has shocked a lot of Liberal supporters who were caught up with his hair, his shirtless selfies, his celebrity and his Twitter-length intellectualism.

And just wait until this summer. That’s when the breach-of-trust trial of Vice-Admiral Mark Norman begins.

Lawyers for the respected naval officer, who is alleged to have revealed confidential information about a Liberal ship-building deal, are expected to argue their client is a victim of Liberal scapegoating. The Trudeau government wanted to move the contract for a new supply ship from a Quebec firm to New Brunswick’s Irving shipyards.

And they needed someone to pin the blame on, so they picked Norman.

As the trial proceeds, his lawyers are expected to call witnesses who will testify the government has tried to hide documents from his legal team and otherwise suppress evidence that might exonerate the admiral (but embarrass the Liberals).

Hmm, where have we heard that before: The Trudeau Liberals sticking their political noses in the legal process to try to prevent angering their supporters or admitting their own responsibility?

I just hope Trudeau is around during the trial to take more body blows on the eve of the federal election.