Control of the House of Representatives is teetering on a razor’s edge, poised to fall to the Democrats on Nov. 6, but hardly a lost cause for the Republicans.

Amid a blue tide of cash, grass-roots activism and voter enthusiasm, the Democrats only have to win 23 seats to erase the GOP’s 42-seat majority.

Every single House seat in the country is facing an election. The wave, if there is one, could crash the hardest in America’s suburbs, where dissatisfaction with President Trump, particularly among women, is driving typically Republican districts toward the welcoming arms of the Democratic Party.

Trump’s job-approval rating of 44 percent, according to RealClearPolitics, is low but holding steady, and the Democratic edge of around 7.6 points on the generic ballot is just wide enough to project a House takeover, but not quite enough to guarantee it. Indications are the partisan battle to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh improved the GOP’s position, especially in ruby-red exurban and rural districts that were threatening to don blue on Election Day.

“Democrats are most likely to regain the majority in the House. But there are enough close races where a shift of just a few points overall in one direction is the difference between a narrow margin and historic gains,” said Nathan Gonzales, publisher of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan political handicapper.



But Republicans are still in the fight.

Making projections in an era of chaotic politics and lightning-fast news cycles is dicey. As this story went to print, nonpartisan prognosticators were predicting a narrow Democratic takeover — in the range of 25 seats on the low end, which would win Democrats a barely governable two-seat majority, to 40 seats on the high end.

To understand Republicans’ precarious position, look no further than where the battle for the House is being fought. Of the 48 districts rated a “toss-up” or likely to change hands by the Cook Political Report, just three are currently controlled by the Democratic Party. Inside Elections, meanwhile, rates 44 seats as a “toss-up” or leaning toward switching parties — all but eight held by the GOP.

There are some key districts to watch as the returns roll in on Nov. 6:

First and foremost, the 23 seats that re-elected their Republican congressman in 2016 but pulled the lever for Democrat Hillary Clinton for president. That segment includes districts in historically ruby red Orange County, Calif., such as the 45th District held by Rep. Mimi Walters and the 39th District, where House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce chose to retire rather than run for re-election.

Next up are some of the Republicans’ untested conservatives — those incumbents running for re-election in districts gerrymandered to protect GOP candidates which could flip because the Democrat is a better politician and has attracted more resources. Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.), running in the Richmond suburbs, is among them; so is Rep. John Culberson (R-Texas), facing his toughest general election challenge ever in the suburbs of Houston.

Gonzales has rated 14 Republican-held districts as a “toss-up,” another 12 GOP-held districts as “tilt Democratic,” another six Republican districts as “lean Democratic” and yet another 3 GOP seats as “likely” to fall to the Democrats on Election Day. That’s a total of 35 Republican districts leaning blue in some form.

Less than 10 Democrat-held seats are rated similarly.

The Cook Political Report, another experienced nonpartisan prognosticator, rates 45 Republican seats as in either a little or a lot of trouble.

“It would be shocking, barring some massive late development that was extremely positive for Republicans, to imagine the Democrats netting less than 15 seats. But on a seat-by-seat basis, there are just enough question marks to leave the door to the House majority open for the Republicans,” said Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

California’s 39th District

Open: Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D)

Presidential margin: Clinton +8.6%

President Ronald Reagan once quipped that Orange County, Calif., is where Republicans go before they die. And yet this seat, left open by retiring Republican Rep. Ed Royce, sided with polarizing Democrat Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016, signaling the rise of culturally conservative populists and the diminishment of upscale suburban voters in the GOP. The Republicans nominated Kim, an Asian woman who previously served in the state Legislature, at a time when their party looks whiter and more male. The Democrats nominated Cisneros, a Hispanic, at a time when Hispanics don’t always show up to vote in large numbers. This seat may not just determine control of the House but how both parties might look in the future.

Texas’ 32nd District

Incumbent: Rep. Pete Sessions (R) vs. Colin Allred (D)

Presidential margin: Clinton +1.9%

Sessions is reaping the trouble Trump is causing Republicans in traditionally red districts. For years a Republican bastion, the congressman’s suburban Dallas seat sided with Clinton in 2016. Now this Republican power broker — Sessions is the chairman of the House Rules Committee — is working harder than he has in years to hold off Allred, who like many Democrats raised significantly more than his Republican opponent in the third-quarter filing period. Sessions is dealing with the same problems dogging other Republicans in suburban districts: unhappy female voters and moderates and independents who usually vote GOP but can’t stomach the president’s behavior, even if they like some of his policies. Sessions understands revolts against presidents: He was chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2010, a wave election that saw the GOP win more than 60 House seats in a backlash against President Barack Obama.

Kansas’ Third District

Incumbent: Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) vs. Sharice Davids (D)

Presidential margin: Clinton +1.2%

Yoder has done everything right this election cycle. The 42-year-old Republican has raised money and stayed in close touch with his district.

Anticipating a tough midterm election after Clinton won his district, he even ordered his campaign to construct a homegrown voter-turnout operation, so that he wouldn’t be at the mercy of a national Republican Party that might have other priorities. Plus, Davids is arguably a little too progressive for this suburban Kansas City district (it is situated in Eastern Kansas, adjacent to the Missouri border). But that’s the marker of midterm rebukes against a sitting president. An incumbent can do everything right and still get punished because the voters want to send a message. This race isn’t over, but it isn’t looking good for Yoder with less than three weeks to go.

Illinois’ Sixth Congressional District

Incumbent: Rep. Peter Roskam (R) vs. Sean Casten (D)

Presidential margin: Clinton +7%

Roskam was one of the few Republicans to succeed in 2006, a year that saw the Democrats capture control of Congress in a wave election, defeating now-Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) in this suburban Chicago district in an open-seat race. He’s had to work hard to win re-election every year since, but always came out on top thanks to dogged campaigning, aggressive fundraising and attention to detail on major legislation. Supporting President Trump on tried and true Republican issues like tax cuts, while opposing him on evolving issues like gun rights, Roskam has kept up with the concerns of the voters in the district. But the suburban revolt that threatens to sweep the GOP from power in the House might finally catch up to the congressman. If Casten squanders the race, it could be an early sign that Republicans have managed to defy expectations and hold the House.

Florida’s 27th District

Open: Maria Elvira Salazar (R) vs. Donna Shalala (D)

Presidential margin: Clinton +15%

After veteran Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen announced her retirement, this South Florida seat looked like a shoo-in for the Democrats. After all, voters there chose Clinton by 19 points over Trump. But in an example of why local candidates and campaigns matter, first-time Republican candidate Maria Elvira Salazar will likely hold this seat for the GOP on the strength of her name and ethnic kinship to the influential Cuban community. Meanwhile, Donna Shalala is struggling to capitalize on the district’s Democratic leanings, in part because she doesn’t speak Spanish, and in part because, as a 77-year-old former official in the administration of President Bill Clinton, she seems like a relic of the past.

New Jersey’s Third District

Incumbent: Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D)

Presidential margin: Trump +6.2%

MacArthur is the sort of congressman voters claim to want. He tackles the tough issues and is willing to compromise. The Republican was a key negotiator in the House GOP effort to repeal and replace ObamaCare, helping to forge a compromise between Republican centrists and conservatives that paved the way for passage of a bill, albeit the legislation died in the Senate. No matter, MacArthur has a tough re-election bid in a swing district that voted for President Barack Obama twice and Trump in 2016, because of discontent with Trump’s leadership and concerns about how GOP health-care policy might impact federal protections for pre-existing medical conditions that were not the law of the land prior to the Affordable Care Act. Not surprisingly, the suburban Philadelphia portion of MacArthur’s district is leading the way against him. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Republican survive on Election Day, but he’s going to need a strong showing from the pro-Trump part of his seat along the New Jersey shore to get over the line.

Virginia’s Seventh

District Incumbent: Rep. Dave Brat (R) vs. Abigail Spanberger (D)

Presidential margin: Trump +6.5%

Brat shocked the political world in 2014 when he upset then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a GOP primary on the strength of support from disgruntled conservatives. He could be the victim of similar revolt, this time by unhappy suburban women and independent voters frustrated with President Trump’s provocative leadership style and unhappy with a polarized Washington that they are blaming on a Republican Party that controls the Congress and the White House.

Democrats here nominated a stellar candidate. Spanberger is a former clandestine officer in the Central Intelligence Agency and wisely said she would not support House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), for speaker if the Democrats win the House. Whether she flips this suburban Richmond district could signal how good of a night, or not, Democrats have on Nov. 6.

David Drucker is a Washington Examiner Senior Correspondent and CNN political analyst