The unmistakable end-of-summer box office lull will be increasingly felt this weekend as the major studios begin taking a break from new wide releases until after Labor Day.

Still, the strength of holdovers — Crazy Rich Asians, in particular — will at least keep year-over-year comparisons far above where last August’s market stood at the same point. Warner’s breakout rom-com is likely the only film with a chance at hitting $20 million this weekend. If it falls a bit short, though, that would break a 28-week streak at the box office with at least one film earning that amount at the weekend box office.

STX’s The Happytime Murders could be a dark horse contender for a semi-breakout, but pre-release signals continue to suggest a debut in the mid-teen million range as per our recent tracking reports. The film’s Facebook growth is more notable than Twitter activity, while traditional tracking metrics are similar to those of this summer’s Tag.

Meanwhile, A.X.L. is trending on the bearish end of expectations with social media growth in the realm of fellow Global Road release, Max Steel.

Bleecker Street is releasing their Papillon remake in an estimated 520 locations, but we’re not offering up forecasts at this time.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice estimates this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $79 million or more. That would represent a 72 percent or higher increase from the same frame last year when Leap!debuted to $4.7 million in third place behind The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Annabelle: Creation‘s second and third frames, respectively. That weekend’s top ten accounted for just $46.1 million.

Top 5 Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 26 % Change from Last Wknd Crazy Rich Asians Warner Bros. $17,500,000 $69,500,000 -34% The Happytime Murders STX $14,000,000 $14,000,000 NEW The Meg Warner Bros. $12,700,000 $105,700,000 -40% Mission: Impossible – Fallout Paramount $7,000,000 $192,900,000 -35% Disney’s Christopher Robin Disney $6,700,000 $77,800,000 -24%

A.X.L.* Global Road $1,750,000 $1,750,000 NEW

* denotes rank outside the top five

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