Former PM speaking on 20th anniversary of failed referendum says voters need to first decide on a model, then vote on change

Malcolm Turnbull says the only chance Australia has of evolving into a republic is if a future government holds a plebiscite where voters first thrash out whether the proposed change is to a direct election or to a parliamentary appointment model.

The former prime minister, who served as the chairman of the Australian Republican Movement from 1993 to 2000, told a dinner in Canberra on Tuesday night that the searing experience of being on the losing side of the 1999 referendum had taught him that a campaign to change Australia’s head of state could not be won if supporters of a republic were fighting on two fronts.

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Republicans lost the 1999 referendum, when almost 55% of the voting public chose the status quo. The question put in 1999 was whether voters supported changing the constitution to establish the commonwealth of Australia as a republic with the Queen and governor general being replaced by a president appointed by a two-thirds majority of the members of the parliament.

The campaign was lost after John Howard and Tony Abbott characterised the proposal as a politicians’ republic. Turnbull declared after the defeat: “Whatever John Howard achieves, history will remember him for only one thing – he was the prime minister who broke this nation’s heart”.

On Tuesday night Turnbull said the mistakes of 1999 could not be repeated: “What we need to have is plebiscite which sets out a direct election model and a parliamentary appointment model.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Malcolm Turnbull campaigning for the republic in November 1999. Photograph: Mark Baker/Reuters

“We need to thrash that out for months … have a good old barney and come to a decision. Once that decision has been taken, that is the model, whether that is direct election or appointment, that gets put into amendments that go into the referendum. If we do that, everybody will live by the outcome

“I’ve had 20 years to think about it, and that, I can tell you, is my considered opinion as to how we can best deal with this. We cannot afford to have another referendum where we are fighting on two fronts.”

Turnbull said Paul Keating had thought in the 1990s that there could be a plebiscite asking whether voters supported a change to a republic, and if Australians voted yes, they would trust the parliament to determine the model. He said Keating was “an idealist”.

“I honestly think that a plebiscite asking whether we want to become a republic would get thrashed,” the former prime minister said. “People would say you asking for a blank cheque.

“I sincerely counsel a future prime minister not to undertake that.”

Turnbull said the renewed national conversation should be launched at the end of the reign of the current monarch, Queen Elizabeth. “There is clearly a way forward. Timing is going to be critical.

“I’ve never favoured glorious defeats. I like to win. We’ve had one glorious defeat as republicans, so we’ve got to make sure the next one, we win – and, my friends, we will.”

Turnbull’s speech sparked a standing ovation. Government MPs were thin on the ground at the dinner in the Kings Hall of the old parliament, hosted by the Australian Republican Movement. Turnbull was joined by a fellow Liberal, Jason Falinski.

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The Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, told the event the controversy involving Prince Andrew “reminded Australia about why we need an Australian head of state” and he said the deep divisions in English society over Brexit and the possible fracture of the UK, were another reminder reinforcing the folly of Australia being “passive” and tethered to events in another country, beyond its control.

While Albanese spoke strongly in favour of becoming a republic, he said the recognition of Indigenous Australians in the constitution was the “first priority”.

And, while praising Turnbull for his leadership in 1999, he argued that the republic should be put to the Australian people first in a plebiscite asking whether voters wanted an Australian as head of state, with the details of the model to be worked out later.

The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, said the primary challenge ahead of renewing the campaign for a republic would be uniting behind a proposal. He said republicans in 1999 “were divided and conquered”.

For Australia to become a republic, a constitutional referendum would need to be held, with the majority of voters in the majority of states voting yes for change to occur. Australians are conservative about constitutional change. Of the 44 referendums held since federation, just eight have been successful.