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Would a Jason Kenney win in Alberta be better for Trudeau - or worse?

Vassy Kapelos, host of Power & Politics

Alberta is an enigma in more ways than one.

Snow in April? In most places, that's unusual. In Alberta, not so much (OK, it happens in Ottawa too - but that's another story).

With snowflakes falling all around, federal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer joined UCP Leader Jason Kenney to rally the troops Thursday night in Calgary. Their message was clear.

"Rachel Notley and Justin Trudeau, they both have the same attitude toward our energy sector … " Scheer told the crowd.

Conservatives insist Trudeau and Notley are aligned, Jason Kenney even calls it an alliance.

It's not, though. In fact, people close to the prime minister tell me his working relationship with Premier Notley is among the most difficult Trudeau has with any provincial leader. I mean, she needed a pipeline and ... well, you know the rest of the story. There ain't one. (Yet.)

Trudeau's people like Notley, they tell me. She thinks the same way they do. But she and the PM don't get along.

In public, Liberals will tell you they're not afraid of a Premier Jason Kenney. They'll say they'd love to run against the Kenney-Ford-Scheer trifecta. (Bring on a climate change battle!) But on the inside, there's anxiety.

Albertans head to the polls April 16 and the outcome will have political and economic implications across Canada. 2:43

They know Kenney will lift the cap on emissions in the oilsands, a policy which gave the feds justification for buying the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. "We'll have to impose something," someone in natural resources told me last week. "That will seal the deal for us in Alberta." Translation: all three Liberal seats in the province would be gonzo as a result.

Conservatives also will tell you that there is power in numbers. Just take a look at who's lined up against the federal Liberals (and the carbon tax): Premiers Blaine Higgs, Scott Moe, Doug Ford, Brian Pallister and now, maybe (election's not over 'til it's over, folks) Jason Kenney.

But federal Conservatives - like their Liberal counterparts - also have some reasons to be nervous. Scheer's big challenge has been translating Liberal voter dissatisfaction into support for himself. Someone in Scheer's inner circle recently admitted to me that Ford and Kenney are such strong personalities they threaten to overpower Scheer on the national stage.

As for the federal NDP ... well, there's that Alberta anomaly again. There's no love lost between the federal party and its provincial counterpart; I'm pretty sure Notley and federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh have spoken just once in the year and a half since Singh was elected federal leader.

Singh's oft-repeated line that Ottawa "should not be spending public dollars on a 65-year-old leaky pipeline" hasn't gone over well with the Alberta NDP. Actually, that's an understatement: Notley has called Singh "naive" and said at one point that she'd hoped he would take "a more mature approach to his leadership."

Remember Notley's surprise sweep in 2015 and the bump in popular support for Tom Mulcair and federal New Democrats that followed? Don't expect it to happen again soon.

See you Tuesday Alberta, I'll be wearing my winter boots.

(Disclaimer: the weather is so crappy in Ottawa I was already wearing them).

Vassy Kapelos is host of Power & Politics, weekdays at 5 p.m. ET on CBC News Network.