Updated at 11:30 a.m. Saturday with more reaction, and at 8:40 p.m. Friday with Trump dropping the tariff threat after striking a deal with Mexico.

WASHINGTON — Democrats have struggled for decades to wrest Texas from the firm grasp of Republicans. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on Mexican imports handed them a huge gift.

The pain of 5% tariffs set to begin Monday would have been tolerable. But the 25% tariffs he threatened in coming months would have pinched farmers, manufacturers and consumers, costing more than 100,000 jobs in Texas alone, and alienating voters Trump can ill afford to lose.

The political risks, strategists in both parties say, were huge. So was the relief among fellow Republicans when Trump announced Friday night that he "indefinitely suspended" the tariffs, after Mexico sent troops to its own southern border and agreed to other steps to stem migration to the United States.

After a quarter-century of one-party control, Texas has reached a tipping point. Last year’s U.S. Senate race proved that it’s a battleground as Sen. Ted Cruz survived with less than 51% of the vote over Beto O'Rourke. The president’s 9-point margin over Hillary Clinton two years earlier was the worst of any GOP nominee in four decades.

So the president was playing with fire when it comes to tariffs that would have hit Texas harder than any other state, risking GOP control of the state and with it, the White House, because Republicans have no realistic path to victory without Texas.

“When you do things that destabilize the economy, it has an outsize effect on Texas,” said Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “When you mess with Texas and with the relationship with Texas’ most important trading partner, Mexico, you definitely target the lives of the welfare of working Texans, other families.”

Most top Texas Republicans had distanced themselves from Trump's tariff threat, even as they embraced his aim — curbing migration that has overwhelmed the Border Patrol and other federal agencies. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick was the only prominent state leader who defended the tariff threat against an outcry from CEOs and business leaders.

"I will yield to nobody in passion and seriousness and commitment to securing the border, but there's no reason for Texas farmers and ranchers and manufacturers and small businesses to pay the price of massive new taxes," Cruz told reporters at the Capitol after GOP senators met Tuesday with White House aides about the threat.

I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico. The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended. Mexico, in turn, has agreed to take strong measures to.... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 8, 2019

Cruz described “deep concern and resistance” among lawmakers. By Saturday evening, he still hadn't weighed in on the 11th-hour deal.

Sen. John Cornyn, seeking a fourth term next year, had likewise refrained from criticizing Trump personally even as he voiced disapproval for the tactics, the same balance Gov. Greg Abbott struck in Austin.

After the deal was announced, Cornyn kept his distance, tweeting: "The Mexican government has pledged to do more than Congressional Democrats to address this crisis."

O'Rourke, now seeking the Democratic nomination for president, called Trump's chest-thumping "another example of Donald Trump trying to be both the arsonist who created this problem in the first place and the firefighter who wants credit for addressing it."

Under the deal, Mexico is sending 6,000 troops to its southern border and agreed to keep asylum seekers from crossing into the United States pending review of their claims, a "Remain in Mexico" policy that Trump had demanded.

The Business Roundtable, which represents CEOs of nearly 200 leading U.S. companies, blasted Trump's tactics, even as it expressed "relief" that tariffs were averted and lauded the progress on migration issues.

"We remain deeply concerned about using the threat or imposition of tariffs to press policy changes with our neighbors and allies," the group said.

According to the Dallas Regional Chamber, the Dallas-Fort Worth area imported $639 million worth of goods from Mexico last year, and tariffs would have driven up costs in automotive, telecommunications, and agriculture. Chamber president and CEO Dale Petroskey warned that costs would be passed to consumers, slowing the state’s economy — the nation’s second largest — which in turn would have “a disproportionate negative impact” on the U.S. economy.

Only such dire risks would prompt Cruz and Cornyn to break so publicly with the president, said Matt Mackowiak, a veteran GOP strategist in Texas.

No thanks to Democrats, who are AWOL on the border crisis. https://t.co/gkX6hJLJID — Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) June 8, 2019

'There's a limit'

"Tariffs are not a weapon that a traditional Republican would ever think to use. It happens to be his weapon of choice. ... And there’s a limit,” Mackowiak said. “Mexico is not an adversary.”

But he said, “I don't fundamentally believe Texas is in play," even if tariffs had gone into effect, though he does foresee a closer race than in 2016, when Trump's 9-point cushion was just half the 18-point margin enjoyed by Mitt Romney four years earlier, when he trounced President Barack Obama in Texas.

Mackowiak called the deal "a very positive outcome for the country. President Trump creates leverage to secure meaningful concessions from Mexico."

And he said, "It is a very good thing for Texas that the tariffs in Mexico will not be implemented."

One complication for Republicans — voters and politicians alike — is that Trump conflated immigration and trade. The tariff threat linked a popular policy goal with an unpopular tool and potentially dangerous tool. High tariffs could weaken the economies of both countries, killing U.S. jobs and also triggering enough desperation south of the border to spur yet more migration north.

Tim Murtaugh, communications director for Trump’s re-election campaign, declined to weigh in directly on the political impact of the tariff threats.

But he defended the president's gambit as a way to prod Mexico to act — a stance supported by the resolution Friday night after days of negotiations.

“There is an undeniable crisis at our southern border and President Trump is committed to addressing it,” Murtaugh said by email. “Over 144,000 people attempted entry in May alone, and we are on pace for one million for the year. At any given moment, there are 100,000 migrants moving through Mexico, bound for our southern border. The people of Texas are well aware of the impact of illegal immigration on public safety and public resources. ...

"President Trump has shown that he is willing to use any tool in his toolbox to fix the problem, including the threat of tariffs on Mexican goods," he said.

Murtaugh argued that tariffs on Chinese goods triggered no noticeable inflation. “The American economy is still burning red hot. The same should be expected to be true if tariffs are imposed on Mexico.”

But soft job numbers released Friday, and a month of shudders in the stock market, signaled anxiety and instability.

1 / 3The U.S. had threatened punitive tariffs on imports from Mexico on June 10, including avocados, despite progress in talks for a crackdown on migrants.(Anna-Rose Gassot / Agence France Presse) 2 / 3Mexican immigration agents check documents in a checkpoint in the outskirts of Tapachula, Chiapas state, Mexico, on June 6, 2019. The U.S. warned Mexico it needed to make more concessions on slowing migration to avoid President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs, as the Mexican leader announced he would visit the border to "defend our dignity." Mexican authorities responded to one key U.S. demand by blocking the latest U.S.-bound caravan of undocumented migrants as it entered Mexico from Guatemala.(Pedro Pardo / Agence France-Presse) 3 / 3Sen. John Cornyn watches Sen. Ted Cruz during a news conference at the Texas Capitol in Austin on April 17, 2019. Both have distanced themselves from Trump's tariff threat against Mexico.(Daniel Carde / Special Contributor)

Complex calculus, or miscalculation?

A Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden ahead of Trump in Texas 48-44, with six other Democrats trailing Trump by such small margins — much worse than his 9-point lead over Clinton — as to put the state into too-close-to-call territory.

A tariff fight with Mexico that drives up prices would have hurt Trump’s prospects in several ways.

First, higher prices would undermine his case that the economy is doing well. And when voters can trace their woes directly to his policies, it would be harder to evade recriminations.

“A slumping economy will mean a difficult slog for the president,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist.

Second, Rottinghaus said, Trump’s calling card as a candidate was that he is a billionaire, a business titan and deal maker extraordinaire.

“The one thing Republicans could say about Trump was that he had enough business experience that he could make the economy hum. If the tariffs drag the economy down, that argument falls apart,” he said. “It’s like pulling all of the bottom pieces out of a Jenga puzzle.”

Third, this is a policy that hit hardest in a state Republicans can’t afford to lose. In a presidential election, Democrats can count on California and New York. Add Texas and its 38 electoral votes, and they’re nearly halfway to the 270 needed.

The dicier the situation in Texas, the more campaign money and resources Republicans would be forced to divert from other states.

It’s the inescapable election year question: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”

The more people who answer “no,” the worse the incumbent’s prospects.

Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist, speculated that to the extent there was a calculus behind Trump’s gambit, it was probably aimed at revving up his base in other key battlegrounds — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio.

“He can afford to lose 5 points in Texas if that allows him to maintain his narrow majority in the northern states,” Jones said. “One way to think about it is, if you’re losing Texas, you've probably already lost Arizona and Georgia, and you’ve lost the election.”

Conflating trade policy and immigration

Economic concerns consistently top the list of the public's priorities, regardless of party. But on immigration, there's a big partisan divide.

In a Pew survey ahead of the last midterm elections, three-quarters of Republicans called illegal immigration a "very big" problem, compared to just 1 in 5 Democrats.

That helps explain Trump’s persistent support from his base. It doesn’t get to the trickier question of how much more voters are willing to pay for their cars and beer and fruit, in exchange for progress at the border.

“It’s a high-stakes bluff that could backfire,” said Rottinghaus, “if the perception is that he gambled with peoples’ money and it didn’t pay off.”

Garcia, the Democrat, argued that Trump, Cornyn and other Republicans on the ballot in Texas next year won’t be inoculated even if the tariffs are long forgotten by Election Day.

Three months ago, before the latest uproar, a Texas Tribune/University of Texas survey found Trump barely ahead in Texas over "somebody else."

“Elections are about trust. We need to make sure we have people with the right values to make decisions that affect your family's life,” Garcia said. “This chaos affects the lives of Texans. ... That trust is lost.”