RO SS Lyon often says he doesn’t have a crystal ball.

During last year’s finals series he did, and he didn’t like what he saw.

Amid the euphoria of Fremantle’s high-adrenalin preliminary final victory over Sydney, Lyon had a word of warning after the Dockers had sprayed 2.9 in a wasteful first quarter.

“History tells you if you don’t take your opportunities, you are going to be vulnerable,’’ he said.

One week later, Lyon was being consoled by a friend in the MCG dressingrooms after the club’s gut-wrenching 15-point Grand Final loss to Hawthorn.

She told him: “There was nothing you could do. The boys just couldn’t kick.’’

According to official statistician Champion Data, the tears in the Fremantle rooms following the game should have been tears of joy.

The statisticians have come up with a scoreline after analysing both teams’ shots on goal: the Dockers by six points.

It could have been Fremantle 14.10 (94) def Hawthorn 13.10 (88).

Of course, the only scoreline that matters is already in the history books: Hawthorn 11.11 (77) def Fremantle 8.14 (62).

“Based on the AFL average across the shots that they had, Freo should have won,’’ Champion Data analyst Glenn Luff said.

“It felt like Hawthorn was in control for most of the game, but you look at the raw numbers and it was all pretty close.

“Hawthorn nailed them and Freo didn’t.’’

The Dockers had 29 shots at goal to the Hawks’ 24, yet came up short.

Champion Data’s detailed goalkicking analysis considers all shots at goal, including those that fall short or sail out on the full.

Using data from the past two seasons, every shot is given at an expected accuracy out of the full six points, based on the type of shot, the distance, angle and the amount of pressure the player was under.

Fremantle’s worst offenders were Hayden Ballantyne and Nat Fyfe.

Ballantyne had a dirty day and missed all four of his shots on goal, while Fyfe’s three costly misses can more easily be forgiven given he worked tirelessly and was one of his side’s best.

According to the numbers, Freo’s worst miss of the day came from skipper Matthew Pavlich, whose set shot from 33m in the second quarter missed to the left.

Trailing by 24 points approaching half-time and having kicked just one goal for the match, it was a devastating blow for Fremantle given the circumstances.

Danyle Pearce had made a huge statement with a courageous mark and the Dockers needed to finish the play with a goal.

But nothing is more confronting for the purple army than this: Fremantle had the last eight shots on goal of the match.

It would have been an extraordinary comeback, but it could have happened if the Dockers had been able to finish.

It would have been even more amazing considering Fremantle’s half-time tally of 1.6 (12) - the lowest score at the main break of a grand final for 53 years.

Lance Franklin’s behind put Hawthorn 31 points in front with 10min41sec on the clock.

With the Hawks stuck on their final score of 11.11 (77), Fremantle had the next eight shots for a return of 2.4 and two that did not score.

Ballantyne had the chance to give the comeback huge momentum with his relatively simple set shot from 26m.

Commentator Dennis Cometti called it “the biggest kick of his career’’ and Ballantyne kicked it out on the full.

Luff admits the one thing the stats gurus can’t measure is the pressure inside a player’s head.

“We can’t measure the pressure of grand final day,’’ he said.

“We can measure what we see and whether there was corralling or physical pressure, but the mental pressure of the day we can’t measure obviously.’’

Veteran tagger Ryan Crowley admitted he was more nervous than in any of his previous 163 games.

“I’ve been in the system for 11 years and I was as nervous as hell,’’ he said.

“I can imagine what it was like for some of our younger guys. We’ve never played in front of 100,000 before, ever, and not anything like that really.

“So the nerves were there and it’s obviously how you harness them. We missed some shots that we would otherwise have kicked and that hurts a little bit.’’

One of those younger guys was Fyfe, who had kicked 12.1 from set shots during the season.

“My goalkicking hasn’t let me down all year and it sort of did today,’’ a shattered Fyfe said in the changerooms after the game.

“I can’t put it down to anything. There’s no real excuse. It just didn’t go right on the day.’’