Contagion. That was my first thought when two disparate countries witnessed two apparent terrorist attacks in the earliest hours of 2019. In Japan as in Germany, a man drove a car into crowds of pedestrians in what has now become an achingly familiar scene. In both cases, only injuries were inflicted, although one victim’s injuries in Germany are life-threatening. But beyond these superficial similarities, the cases have just about nothing in common.

Illustration: Simon Letch Credit:

The Japanese driver was a 21-year-old, who said he “would not make any excuses” for his self-declared act of terror because it was “in retaliation for an execution”. Perhaps he’s referring to a particular execution, or perhaps this was his protest against capital punishment; at this stage we don’t know. Meanwhile, in Germany, police arrested a 50-year-old who officials said “had the clear intention to kill foreigners”, and had been making anti-foreigner comments during his arrest. He managed to hit some Syrian and Afghan citizens. We’re told he may have been treated for mental illness in the past. There’s no common profile here. No similar age, no common ideological orientation. Even the mental illness component hasn’t yet been raised in the Japanese case. All that’s left is the method. Ramming pedestrians has now become its own thing, a phenomenon in its own right rather than the exclusive tool of anyone or anything. In short, it has become contagious.

Ever since Darren Osborne drove a van into the Finsbury Park mosque in London, the catalogue of perpetrators has become strikingly diverse. Credit:AP

Given the seminal examples of Nice and Berlin in 2016, we tend to regard this kind of attack as a signature of Islamic State. And it’s true that until 2017, this was overwhelmingly an Islamist style of attack, stretching from Barcelona to Stockholm, and incorporating a suite of attacks in France. But ever since Darren Osborne drove a van into the Finsbury Park mosque in London, the catalogue of perpetrators has become strikingly diverse.