With this year’s major festivals now out of the way, awards prognosticators have a clearer, if still incomplete, idea of the films we will all be talking about from now to the end of February. By this time last year, we had already seen seven of the nine nominees for best picture and as the frantic pace of Telluride, Venice and Toronto fades, it’s time to look back on the buzz that’s become most deafening.

While using the term frontrunner might be a tad presumptuous at this stage, it appears as if there are two films that have garnered the warmest notices thus far and both premiered during this year’s Venice film festival. The first is Roma, the intimate new drama from Alfonso Cuarón, that’s looking like Netflix’s first best picture contender, a major milestone for the streaming platform given their increase in alliances with world-class auteurs. They’re thirsty for it too, with a splashy campaign under way and reports that the film could be their first to receive an exclusive cinematic release before it heads online. Reviews have been almost universally enthusiastic, with the Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw awarding it five stars, calling it Cuarón’s “best film so far”. But is the often musty academy ready to introduce Netflix to the big league and will the fact that it’s in Spanish restrict its chances to the foreign language film category?

A far more Oscar-ready proposition is Bradley Cooper’s take on the music-driven romance A Star is Born, which scored a roaring reception in Venice and continued the hype through to Toronto. It’s a wildly popular crowd-pleaser with Cooper’s name mentioned in both lead actor and director categories but the performance that’s been talked about the most is that of Lady Gaga who has pretty much already won the best actress in a musical or comedy category at the Golden Globes but is set to compete in the best actress Oscar race as well. Her competition will probably include Olivia Colman who impressed Venice and Telluride audiences with her performance as Queen Anne in Yorgos Lanthimos’s darkly comic romp The Favourite which could also see either previous winners Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz in the best supporting actress category. One performance that quietly made a mark at Toronto last year, Glenn Close in the literary drama The Wife, was finally given a theatrical release over the summer and the six-time nominee could score another nod come January.

Melissa McCarthy and Richard E Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me? Photograph: Twentieth Century Fox

Audiences at Telluride and Toronto also gravitated towards Melissa McCarthy’s turn in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, the tragic-comic true story of author Lee Israel who became a master of forgery. She’s likely to pick up a best actress nomination while Richard E Grant, who plays her unlikely drinking buddy, is heading for a best supporting actor nod. The film landed better than The Front Runner, another true story also premiering at the Colorado-based festival, the tale of disgraced senator Gary Hart. The Jason Reitman-directed drama, starring Hugh Jackman in the lead, received mixed reviews and by the time it screened in Toronto, buzz was quiet, although in a muted year for best actor, don’t count Jackman out just yet. There was a similar fate at Telluride for Joel Edgerton’s much-anticipated gay conversion drama Boy Erased which, despite a stellar cast including Nicole Kidman, Russell Crowe and Lucas Hedges, was met with politeness rather than passion and is unlikely to make an impression in this year’s race.

The same festival also saw two Oscar winners reveal two very different movies. Robert Redford looks like a sure thing, playing a stick-up artist in Old Man and the Gun, especially given his decision to retire, while Nicole Kidman’s turn as an amoral detective in Destroyer will probably be too dark for the academy, with the film also receiving mixed reviews.

On paper, critics weren’t sure what to expect from Steve McQueen’s Widows, a remake of an ITV Lynda La Plante series that marked a giant commercial leap into the multiplex for the director of 12 Years a Slave and Shame. But his ruthlessly entertaining star-studded thriller proved to be one of the most popular films in Toronto, garnering strong reviews with captivated audience reactions suggesting it will be a big hit on release. But is it too much of a genre offering to impress the academy? It certainly deserves inclusion and if they do go big for it then Viola Davis, Elizabeth Debicki and a fantastically sinister turn from Daniel Kaluuya could also figure in the race.

Ryan Gosling in First Man. Photograph: Daniel McFadden/AP

The circuit also brought new films from Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins, two directors who dominated the Oscars back in 2017 (Chazelle picked up best director for La La Land while Jenkins scored a shock best picture victory with Moonlight). The former picked the story of the moon landing in the large-scale drama First Man, re-teaming with Ryan Gosling who took on the role of Neil Armstrong. Reviews were strong, with a few misgivings, suggesting that both the film and Gosling could factor into the conversation. Jenkins’ adaptation of James Baldwin’s If Beale Street Could Talk might have been bigger-budgeted than his breakout but it was far from a step into commercialism, its lyrical, slow-paced ode to the power of love unlikely to please everyone. But it was met with deservingly strong reviews from critics and is close to a sure thing for academy and guild voters, its beautiful artistry likely to be recognised in a number of categories (everything from production design to costumes) with Emmy-loved Regina King also seeming like a strong possibility for best supporting actress for her performance as a strong-willed mother.

One of the season’s biggest surprises came near the end of Toronto with the premiere of Green Book, a charming crowd-pleaser from Peter Farrelly that could be this year’s dark horse. It’s a broad look at racial tensions in the 60s with a warm heart and will likely continue to play like gangbusters until its smartly timed Thanksgiving release. Expect it to show up in a number of categories, including acting recognition for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. It also pulled off a shock victory, winning the people’s choice award in Toronto. Many had expected it to go to A Star is Born (with help from some little monsters) but Green Book was voted the most popular film with audiences and given that in previous years, the title has gone to 12 Years a Slave, The King’s Speech and Slumdog Millionaire, it’s a strong sign of things to come.

Michael B Jordan and Daniel Kaluuya in Black Panther. Photograph: Matt Kennedy/Ph: Matt Kennedy..©Marvel Studios 2018

The furore over the now-axed popular movie category was largely populated by pundits viewing it as a patronising way to ensure that Black Panther received some academy love but the film’s phenomenal year could see it become the first superhero adventure to receive a best picture nomination anyway. Acting-wise, Michael B Jordan’s show-stopping turn as Killmonger might see him receive a deserved best supporting actor nod too. If nominated, he could face Timothée Chalamet whose haunting performance as a meth addict in the grim drama Beautiful Boy received universal acclaim in Toronto even if the film itself was met with a mixed response. In Ben is Back, another film about addiction that premiered at the festival, Julia Roberts earned praise for playing a struggling mother and given her academy history, she could also gain a nod.

There are still some major films to debut, however, and ones that could have a huge impact on the race. The biggest of these is Vice from Adam McKay, following up The Big Short with a dramatisation of the life of Dick Cheney, played by Christian Bale, with Amy Adams taking on his wife. With a cast that also includes Steve Carell as Donald Rumsfeld, Sam Rockwell as George Bush, Bill Pullman as Nelson Rockefeller and Tyler Perry as Colin Powell, expect it to be a contender. There could also be love for Mary Poppins Returns, a film Disney has so much faith in that it reportedly led to them releasing their annual Star Wars offering in the summer just to avoid a clash. Emily Blunt, Meryl Streep, Lin-Manuel Miranda and Colin Firth star. Netflix also has Susanne Bier’s post-apocalyptic thriller Bird Box which could be big for star Sandra Bullock while both the actress and best supporting actress races could see nods for Mary Queen of Scots, starring Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie. Finally, Fox hopes to rise above the negative on-set drama for Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody which could launch Rami Malek into the best actor competition.

Ten safe nominee bets

Lady Gaga – best actress, A Star is Born

Alfonso Cuarón – best director, Roma

Richard E Grant – best supporting actor, Can You Ever Forgive Me??

Olivia Colman – best actress, The Favourite

Regina King – best supporting actress, If Beale Street Could Talk

Robert Redford – best actor, Old Man and the Gun

Timothée Chalamet – best supporting actor, Beautiful Boy

Barry Jenkins – best director, If Beale Street Could Talk

Bradley Cooper – best actor, A Star is Born

Glenn Close – best actress, The Wife