Re-election blues… February 24, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics

Pat Leahy in the SBP puts his finger on an unpleasant and inconvenient truth for Fine Gael and Labour on foot of the most recent poll. Away from all the rhetoric this last weekend at the FG Ard Fheis, and the upcoming rhetoric we are bound to hear from Labour at their meet, the reality is that:

With Fine Gael stuck on 24 per cent, and Labour again slipping back to 7 per cent, the coalition is a lot closer to meltdown than it is to victory. For the government to be re-elected, Fine Gael probably needs to be on at least 30 per cent, Labour in the early teens. If that is not impossible, it is certainly, on the face of it, an unlikely prospect.

Think about it. The LP has to all but double its support. FG to gain another 6 per cent. And then think about the terrain upon which this has to be negotiated. For Fine Gael it’s less difficult, they can perhaps drawn in soft FF-inclined voters, or those not so keen on Lucinda Creighton or Shane Ross. Perhaps.

For Labour it’s a task of nightmare like proportions. Their base in constituencies amongst the working class has been eviscerated by the very policies they themselves stood over and implemented. And without that base, well, what do they have? Merely the same sort of chasing around after that elusive ‘middle Ireland’ vote that all the larger parties hope to gain some lock on. That’s all very fine, but the marketplace for same has become markedly more competitive over the years. Just, paradoxically, as the market place for the working class vote has likewise become more competitive. It is, as was noted here last week, a classic case of reaching out for a new constituency while forgetting that the one you have – even if only in part, is the one that requires continual attention.

And there’s the issue that all other things being equal there will be constant reminders in those working class areas from those rivals of Labours iniquities.

Leahy continues:

Yet it speaks to a basic truth about political campaigns in western democracies – the centrality of the economy as an issue in every election. It is also the basis of the government’s re-election bid; the coalition will not make itself loved, but it might get credit for a recovering economy. After a year of consistently strengthening economic news, with the last budget heralding the end of austerity and some minor tax cuts, the question around government is: why is it not the economy?

Well, one could easily contest some of those assertions, but as noted here before as well, is the template one of economic success providing electoral success? One could make an argument that the FG/LP/DL coalition of the 1990s albeit short-lived was reasonably successful and yet it was unceremoniously turfed out by the electorate and that during a time of increasing economic growth. Other examples, that of the BLP across the late 90s and 2000s are different because Britain was going through a time of growth itself. Whereas… any improvement is contingent and rather marginal in comparison to all the problems that remain – and as importantly the legacy, the cumulative legacy, of years of austerity that mean that the ‘end’ of austerity is no such thing.

Leahy makes another point that is worth considering:

The radical left, especially in the persons of Socialist Party TDs Paul Murphy and Ruth Coppinger, has achieved in recent months a massive media profile, yet there is almost no political payoff. Far left parties remain nationally negligible in the polls. They are highly effective critics of government, yet have little appeal in terms of a political alternative for most. Other potential political alternatives – in the shape of Lucinda Creighton’s new party or Shane Ross’s independent alliance – have yet to establish themselves.

This isn’t unimportant. Because simply put we’ve been through the most pronounced economic crisis within living member and the fact remains that the political dividends have been mixed. It could be that the water issue will wash a significant number of specific anti-water tax candidates into the Dáil – that remains to be seen, but even the most optimistic figures I’m hearing on the left suggest that the numbers would be less than ten, at the very very best. That’s far from bad, but look at SF, a racing certainty to have at the very least triple that number and more likely four times that. All this suggests that the work of decades remains for the left.

The same is true to an extent of the Creighton and Ross vehicles, though they are vastly dissimilar from political parties that campaign over long periods. One can see those projects not getting very far off the ground.

And while it is true, as Leahy alludes to, that there is a very large anti-austerity camp, that camp is fluid and currently remains represented in the main by SF.

Leahy’s conclusion?

The political picture remains fragmented and volatile, and the likely shape of the next government as unpredictable as ever.

It’s obvious, but it’s correct.