Republicans Troy Nehls and Kathaleen Wall will head to a runoff and Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni will avoid one after their respective primaries for the open 22nd Congressional District, unofficial final results show.

The race to fill retiring Rep. Pete Olson’s seat is expected to be one of the hottest in the nation. Democrats have had their eye on the seat since Olson just barely hung onto it in 2018, winning by a tight 5-percentage point margin over Kulkarni. The district includes most of Fort Bend County, parts of northern Brazoria County and southeastern sections of Harris County.

This time around, Kulkarni has raked in 34,579 votes, or 53 percent of the vote, giving him the majority he needed to clinch the nomination, the unofficial results show.

Behind him was former Pearland City Council member Derrick Reed at 25 percent, or 16,100 votes, attorney Nyanza Davis Moore at 15 percent, or 9,435 votes, and retired electrician Carmine Petrillo III at almost 8 percent, or 5,065 votes.

Live coverage: Election results in March 3 primary elections

On the Republican side, Nehls, the Fort Bend Sheriff, scooped up 44 percent of the vote, setting himself apart in the crowded, 15-person primary.

Next was longtime GOP donor and largely self-funded Kathaleen Wall at 21 percent; CEO of the local Big Brothers Big Sisters and George H.W. Bush’s grandson Pierce Bush at 17 percent; and former Pearland City Councilman Greg Hill at 15 percent.

For Bush, who was endorsed by Olson, the loss marked the first for the family in Texas since George W. Bush made an unsuccessful run for Congress in 1978.

Nehls said earlier on Tuesday that although he didn’t raise the millions that other candidates had, he felt all along he had a deep grassroots advantage by having been sheriff in the county for 28 years. While stationed at Sugar Creek Country Club just hours before polls closed, Nehls said was going to run like he was trailing until the very end.

“I keep scratching and climbing up the hill,” Nehls said. “If I can get into the runoff, I’m looking forward to that 11 weeks.”

The Republican race is almost certain to come down to a runoff, which is triggered when no one candidate receives a majority of the vote. In that case, the top two vote-getters will face off.

Whoever it comes down to in November, the race is seen by many as a harbinger of whether political tides are changing in Texas and becoming more favorable for Democrats. The midterms in 2018 boosted Democratic optimism after the party flipped two seats in the U.S. House, 12 in the Texas House and two in the Texas Senate.

If anything’s been an indication of how seriously candidates are taking this race, it’s the eye-popping amounts of money they’ve raised over the last year. Wall, who’s loaned herself $4 million, leads the pack, followed by Kulkarni at $1.2 million and Bush at about $1 million.

At Kulkarni’s watch party on Tuesday night, supporters gathered in Sugar Land at Turquoise Grill and Bar cheered as early results came in. As Kulkarni arrived, chants of “Lets go Sri!” reverberated in the air.

In his speech, Kulkarni reflected how far the campaign had come, from nearly beating Olson in 2018, referring to it as a “David and Goliath” race, to the victory Tuesday evening.

“We have created a chance for the 22nd district to have representation that actually represents this district’s values, it represents this district’s diversity,” Kulkarni said. “It represents all of our communities coming together.”

Staff writers Jeremy Wallace and Brooke Lewis contributed to this report.