Another day, another poll on the amendments

Yesterday I covered the SurveyUSA poll on the two constitutional amendments Minnesotans will be voting on in November. Today I’ll talk about the Public Policy Polling poll that came out yesterday concerning the very same two constitutional amendments.

PPP (9/12, 6/4 in parenthesis, 1/22 in brackets):

Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota? Yes 48 (43) [48]

No 47 (49) [44]

Not sure 5 (7) [8]

(MoE: ±3.4%)

On the surface this looks like an increase in support for the marriage amendment of five points. But as was the case with the SurveyUSA poll that showed a big increase in opposition, I think this is more related to regression to the mean then it is to any change.

Afterall, both polls show the exact opposite trends. But those trends are the result of the polls being put into the context of the polling firms previous poll. And for both of these firms, their previous polls painted substantially different pictures of the race.

PPP’s June survey showed the opposition ahead 49-43, while SurveyUSA’s July survey showed supporters ahead 52-37. Those polls were not at all like each other. The two current surveys are sort of like each other. PPP’s shows the amendment winning 48-47, while SurveyUSA shows it winning 50-43.

For both of these polls then, the trend lines should probably be dismissed as they won’t do anyone any good to look at.

To help: mnunited.org

Onto the photo voter ID amendment:

PPP (9/12, 6/4 in parenthesis):

Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters? Yes 56 (58)

No 39 (34)

Not sure 5 (8)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

It’s pretty safe to say it’s a good sign that this poll shows opposition to the photo voter ID amendment increasing at the same time it shows support for the marriage amendment increasing.

The big change is Democrats coming home on this amendment, something that is absolutely vital if it’s going to get defeated in November. Looking at the cross tabs tells the story.

While Republican support for the amendment has hardened some, going from 84%-10% to 88%-9%, the much more dramatic movement has been among Democrats who went from opposing the amendment by a 54%-36% margin in June to opposing it by a 72%-20% margin in this poll.

That’s a very encouraging sign, and if Democrats continue to come around on this issue, we might actually have a chance of defeating it in November.

The amendment is still leading by a seventeen point margin though.

To help: ourvoteourfuture.org