Mock Drafts Were Meant to Win Mock Draft Pools

Making a mock draft without entering it into a mock draft pool is like filling out a March Madness bracket and just tucking it under your pillow. What’s the point? If you’re gonna make a mock (and I suggest you all do) put it in a pool! See how your mock stacks up.

One thing I’ve learned from my Attack the Mock series (where I interview an analyst and dissect their mock draft) is that the way I create a mock draft is totally different from every other person everywhere.

I didn’t know I was a unique little snowflake… but now that I know I am, I’m ready to let the secrets of my process dissolve all over your tongue. Sorry, that metaphor got weird, fast.

HEADS UP! If you are not interested in my process, and just want to see the mock, here is the complete Mock Draft. But I think you should stay here, you know, for the context.

This is a little sooner than I was expecting to release this next mock of mine, but sometimes I get a little over-eager. Sue me. I’m using this as an excuse to lay out exactly how I make a mock draft, specifically, one with the aim of winning a mock draft pool.

If I use a term or strategy you aren’t already familiar with (hedge, chalk, contrarian) and you want some clarification… write me. I’ll go into it with you. And be sure to know the scoring system! It is the backbone of a mock draft pool.

Round: predicting the round when a player is drafted (1 point)

Player-Pick: predicting the pick when a player is drafted (5 points)

Player-Team: predicting the team who drafts a player (5 points)

Trade Bonus: predicting a team will draft a player with a pick that wasn’t theirs (20 points)

For examples, check out How to Play.

And if you aren’t planning on entering a mock draft pool with your own mock draft, I don’t know what to tell you. You’re making a huge mistake. Get the MockOut app, make a mock draft pool, invite your friends, and thank me after you have the best draft of your life.

Of course, my way is not the only way to make a competitive mock draft. Honestly, as you can see from my barely-adequate showing in last year’s Expert Mock Draft Contest, it’s probably not the best. But it’s my way. And I’m a sharer.

Step 1: Arrange the QBs

First things first, start with the Quarterbacks. QB is the easiest position to predict, because they carry by far the most positional importance, there’s only one starter per team, and it’s really obvious when a team needs one.

As the QBs go, so goes the draft.

The other thing to remember is that QBs are by far the most traded-for position in the draft. Unless there is a QB who is definitely going #1 overall to a team in need of a QB (or this year, when a team doesn’t even have a need at the position) I like to predict that every QB who is drafted in the first round does so as a result of a trade. Hedging your bet is nice, but hitting on that Trade Bonus is a must if you want to win your contests.

According to our Scoring System, if you totally nail a standard (not-traded) pick, you score 11 points. 5 points for Player-Pick, 5 points for Player-Team, and 1 point for First Rounder. But that Trade Bonus is an extra 20 points. It’s huge, and it is virtually impossible to win a mock draft pool without nailing at least a couple draft day trades. So you take your shots on the most-traded-for players. QBs.

The way I see it, there are three early first round QBs (Murray, Haskins, Lock) and one player who I think shocks the world and sneaks in at the end of the round. I’ll save that for later. First, let’s look at the top guys:

Kyler Murray is going to ARI at pick 1. Don’t get me wrong, maybe this won’t happen… but for my mock, I’m taking the chalk and agreeing that Murray will go first.

Dwayne Haskins has a lot of teams who I think could be in on him. I think the leaders, from a draft position and schematic standpoint, are OAK, NYG, CIN, MIA, WAS. I’m going to knock OAK out of the running because I think they will go Edge first. I’ll knock the Giants out because of how they’ve shown they “value” the QB position in the past. I still believe the Skins ultimately land Rosen, so that leaves me MIA and CIN.

This is great. I’ve had many discussions about why I believe MIA will trade up for Haskins, and having them move up just two spots to do so is easy. So there we go. MIA trades up to pick 11 and drafts Haskins.

Drew Lock is a bit easier, since there are such consistent and firm rumors that DEN loves him. I’m going to have DEN make the move. As for a trade partner (someone who might surprisingly take Lock) my only real options are NYG and WAS. I had WAS take Lock in my last mock draft, but that one wasn’t concerned with winning a mock draft pool. This one is. So I’ve got a better move.

I’m going to have DEN move back 7 spots, allowing the Giants to move up (for a player who I believe both they and the Broncos could highly covet) and DEN to still get that Trade Bonus if they make a move up or down for Lock. And if DEN surprisingly passes on Lock, and he falls to 17, I could easily see the Giants grabbing him there. DEN moves back to pick 17 and drafts Drew Lock.

All this could go out the window if Rosen isn’t traded (or at least heavily rumored to be traded) to WAS before the draft starts.

QBs are done. For now.

Step 2: Fill Glaring Needs By Trading Up

Next, we find some teams with HUGE needs, and see if any of them can be reasonably filled by trades. Still hunting for that Trade Bonus.

Here, I see three good opportunities, all of which I actually predicted in my last mock draft as well. But they all work really well, so I won’t go changing them.

HOU needs an OT. Having two second round picks, I think they could trade one of them away to move up to pick 14, where they will draft Jonah Williams. The trade makes sense for both teams according to the Trade Value Chart, and both teams could reasonably draft Jonah Williams if he were to fall to them. HOU’s need on the O-line is so great that a trade up for a sliding lineman is very likely, so this pick is pretty much etched in stone for me.

KC needs a 4-3 DE. Another team with two second round picks are the Chiefs, and they also have a glaring need (though, with the Ogbah trade yesterday, it is slightly less dire) at DE. All the top Edge rushers are slated to be off the board in the top-10, but there’s one player, who perfectly fits the 4-3 scheme KC is transitioning into, and whose draft stock would have him fall to the pick range that KC could trade up to if they were to trade one of their second round picks, according to the Trade Value Chart.

And that team they would trade up with? They also play a primarily 4-3 scheme, and also have a need at DE. It’s perfect. This is why I will continue to mock this trade, probably in my final, official mock draft. KC trades up with CAR to pick 16, and drafts Clelin Ferrell.

LAC needs a DT. Finally, we know, for 100% certain, that SEA will be trading back. It’s a lock. One more trade I really like is having LAC (who is in win-now mode) trade up to pick 21 to grab an impact DT. The price is perfect (it would cost them only a 3rd rounder to move up) and I’ve finally found the player who I want to give them: Dexter Lawrence. Manning the middle of that defense. There aren’t many players who are good enough to force SEA to stand pat and draft him in their original draft slot, but I can see Dexter Lawrence as one of them.

For a full explanation of why I like Lawrence, go check out the full, finished mock draft. Just please, wait until the end of this article. I don’t want to ruin any surprises.

Step 3: Find Common Pairings For the Trading Teams

This mock is starting to fill out now. It’s time to go to my trade-back teams (CIN, HOU, SEA, and CAR) and find common needs/scheme fits/players who fall into that range.

MIA/CIN – we either want an O-lineman who is more of an outside zone (nimble) player, or we’d like a D-lineman. These are the common needs for these two teams. I don’t love the OT options here (it’s a bit early for Dillard, and I want Jonah to go one pick later) so let’s focus on DT. This might be a bit late for him, but I’m going to write Oliver in pencil here, as he can fit in any front (CIN as a 3T, MIA as a 5T, assuming they switch to a 3-4 base) and this is his floor. If I end up having Oliver go earlier than this, it could push Jonah up to pick 11 and have the Texans move up for Dillard.

ATL/HOU – Houston has two very large needs, at OT and CB, and the Falcons have a need at OT as well (which is why the trade up worked so well) and only a slight need at CB. I think the safe move here is to mock another OT who could fall into this range, and double-dip at the position with these two teams. This is a pretty good spot for Dillard (if I don’t give him to HOU) so I’ll write him in pencil.

SEA/LAC – We have the Seahawks up again, but I am pretty confident that we will see them trade back again and move out of the first round entirely, so I’m going to leave this spot blank for now, to see if I can have another team trade up for a certain player who I am going to go for as a contrarian first round trade target.

CAR/KC – Both teams need edge help, for sure, but I think grabbing a rangy FS is also going to be a priority for both teams this year, and that this is a good range to get value at the position, rather than reaching for a second round-caliber Edge. I think CGJ will be the only first round Safety this year (Adderley gets a lot of hype, but I think playing at a small school will ding him a little bit) so I’m going to split him between two teams that could use him.

Step 4: Hedge Bets By Calling Proximity Trades

Now that I’ve handled both ends of all my first-level trades, it’s time for me to stop focusing on needs, and start focusing on specific players, and their value. The range in which I see them being selected. Once I do that, and identify two teams who are picking in the same range, I can hedge my bet with said player by predicting a trade between both teams that could realistically draft him.

So, as of right now, here are the remaining prospects, the ranges in which I think they’ll be picked, and the teams (if any) where I especially want to try and mock them:

TOP-15:

N. Bosa

Q. Williams

J. Allen

D. White (TB, JAX, DET)

B. Burns

D. Metcalf (JAX, BUF, WAS)

SURE-FIRE 1ST:

J. Taylor (NYJ, JAX, BUF, CIN)

R. Gary

C. Ford (JAX, BUF, MIN)

C. Wilkins

B. Murphy (BUF, WAS, OAK)

H. Butler

PROBABLE 1ST:

J. Tillery (IND, PHI, LAR)

A. Brown

T. Hockenson

FRINGE:

C. Winovich

CGJ

G. Bradbury

C. Lindstrom

K. Harmon

N. Fant

J. Simmons

C. Omenihu

W. Grier

J. Jacobs

P. Campbell

D. Risner

E. McCoy

A. Oruwariye

J. Thornhill

D. Baker

Looking at this list here, I think the only players I’d consider hedging on right now are Ford, Taylor, and Metcalf, and the teams who will be pulling the trade are BUF and JAX.

With Metcalf pretty roundly considered the top WR in this year’s class, and with BUF’s history of showing that they prioritize elite physical traits over polish, I’m going to have BUF trade up to pick 7 for him. Then JAX moves back to pick 9 and grabs one of the linemen, TBD. Both Ford and Taylor are great fits for both teams.

Step 5: Player-Team Matches I Really Like

That’s it for trades! Whew. I know there were a lot, but I can’t stress enough how important the Trade Bonus is to ultimately winning your mock draft pool.

Moving on beyond the Trade Bonus now, let’s find some player-team matches we really like (where need, value, and scheme fit all line up perfectly) and slot them in. Let’s also go back to old mocks and see some pairings I’ve really liked, focusing on contrarian picks. If you just go along with everyone else’s mock drafts, you’ll probably finish middle of the pack. If you want to win, you’ll have to make some contrarian picks, and you’ll have to hit on them.

Here are contrarian pairings, and some picks from my previous mocks that I’d like to put in here:

Montez Sweat, DE Mississippi State

Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama

Devin Bush, ILB Michigan

Greedy Williams, CB LSU

N’Keal Harry, WR Arizona State

Step 6: Bring On The Chalk

Now that I’ve put in the picks and trades that I want to start my mock from, and now that I’ve grouped my prospects into tiers, it’s time to hop on some chalk picks, especially early. The beginning of the draft is no place to get cute or try to find a surprise pick. I have learned to go chalk early in my mock, and some of the chalkiest picks this year are:

Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State

Josh Allen, OLB Kentucky

Devin White, ILB LSU

Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma

Jerry Tillery, DT Notre Dame

As always, the best way to keep up with which picks are chalk and which are contrarian… is to read a bunch of mocks! Our Mock Draft Database has got you covered.

Step 7: Fill It In

Now is the point at which I make a mock like a normal human being, going in order and filling in my mock. I’m going to leave the final version and my reasoning behind the picks for you to read over on at my official Mock Draft page, but here’s what it looks like before filling in the holes:

1. Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

2. Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State

3. Josh Allen, OLB Kentucky

4. Montez Sweat, OLB Mississippi State

5. Devin White, ILB LSU

6. Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama

via JAX 7. D.K. Metcalf, WR Ole Miss

8.

via BUF 9. Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida

via DEN 10. Devin Bush, ILB LSU

via CIN 11. Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State

12.

via MIA 13. Ed Oliver, DT Houston

via ATL 14. Jonah Williams, OT Alabama

15.

via CAR 16. Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson

via NYG 17. Drew Lock, QB Missouri

18. Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma

19.

20. Greedy Williams, CB LSU

via SEA 21. Dexter Lawrence, DT Clemson

22.

via HOU 23. Andre Dillard, OT Washington State

24.

25.

26. Jerry Tillery, DT Notre Dame

27. N’Keal Harry, WR Arizona State

28.

via KC 29. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Florida

30.

31.

32.

Over half of my picks are accounted for. It’s time to finish this thing. To finish, it’s very important to get your last few First Rounders in there. Don’t worry about your rankings (as in, “how could you have Player X go so late? he’ll definitely go before then!”) and just make sure that you get every guy you think will get drafted in the first round, in the first round. You need every point you can get, if it’s a tight race.

Rather than tell you the guys that I feel confident will be first rounders, and will try to find a natural home for… I’ll give you the list of guys I purposefully left off my mock, as I don’t believe they will go in the first round. These guys will be in a lot of first round mocks, and I’ll try to separate myself from the pack by not falling for them.

Noah Fant

Josh Jacobs

Jeffrey Simmons

Dalton Risner

Chase Winovich

Now head on over to the full Mock Draft, where the whole mock will be filled in, along with explanations.