Labour appears to be squeezing the Liberal Democrat vote effectively, and uniting Remainers more than was thought possible at the start of this general election campaign. But the party is struggling to defend the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats where Labour Leavers seem to be switching to other parties – including the Tories.

Datapraxis has published a report of key battleground seats, including 32 ‘Red Wall’ Labour heartland seats where “Tories are on the march”. Jeremy Corbyn’s party must work hard to defend these seats on December 12th.

Two factors will decide the outcome in these 32 seats, according to Datapraxis – how many Labour Leave voters switch to the Tories, and how many Remainers vote Labour to keep the Tories out.

The data in the report is based on 269,838 polling respondents interviewed by YouGov. Its constituency-level analysis is likely more accurate than that of other polls. Each constituency typically had 300–400 responses, and the fieldwork was done between November 4th and 22nd.

If Boris Johnson’s party wins most of the Labour Leave constituencies listed below, the Conservatives are set to secure a large Commons majority on Thursday. As many as 20% of 2017 Labour Leavers are currently undecided as to who to vote for and turnout will be key, so campaigning in these seat is crucial.

LabourList has picked out the ‘Red Wall’ seats, along with their predicted majorities as set out by Datapraxis, to help you decide where to go on polling day: