As Iran continues with its enrichment of uranium for civilian purposes, the nation is running up on a cap on the size of the stockpile that was meant to be in effect when the P5+1 deal first went into effect. Exactly when Iran runs into the cap is unclear, but US hawks seems positively to be salivating about the possibility.



US officials, and US media, are eagerly calling this a “breach,” and talking about a new round of sanctions to punish Iran. The more likely turn of events is that literally nothing will happen.



Since the US already dishonored the P5+1 deal, the stockpile caps became voluntary, and Iran has made clear that, barring more serious efforts at sanctions relief, they don’t intend to stay in voluntary compliance.



While the US is trying to present this as vindication, the reality is that no one who is still involved in the P5+1 deal considers this a real violation, nor a reason to end the deal. Indeed, the only reason it is happening at all is because of what the US has done, and this is just a continuation of the US move complicating matters.



The only real danger of all of this is that the US will use the “breach” as a pretext for more hostile action against Iran. Since the US takes hostile actions against Iran on a regular basis either way, however, it’s probably not a major change in that regard either, and just a continuation of the unsettled status quo.





Author: Jason Ditz Jason Ditz is news editor of Antiwar.com. View all posts by Jason Ditz