CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The 2017 Cleveland Indians are the easy choice to win a second straight AL Central Division title.

Too easy.

The Indians, coming off 94 regular-season victories and a glorious postseason run that reached Game 7 of the World Series, will be good. But they won't be quite good enough to hold off the Detroit Tigers in the division.

This is more about respect for the Tigers than disrespect of the Indians. And I expect the Kansas City Royals to make it a three-team race.

If the Tribe wins the division, I'm not jumping into Lake Erie in shorts.

Here is my predicted order of finish:

1. Detroit Tigers

Manager: Brad Ausmus

Last year: 86-75, second place.

Skinny: The Tigers, some seem to have forgotten, were a playoff contender until the final weekend of the regular season. They managed to do so despite significant time lost to injuries. They were a disastrous season series against Cleveland (4-14) from at least securing a wild-card spot. The Indians deserve credit for such dominance, but the Tigers view it as a fluke and don't shudder at the sight of them. In the offseason, Detroit brass reportedly contemplated selling off select pieces but ultimately stood pat with a veteran group led by 1B Miguel Cabrera, LF Justin Upton, 2B Ian Kinsler, DH Victor Martinez and RHP Justin Verlander. When healthy -- and even when just 75 percent -- the Tigers can mash, especially left-handed pitching. They will need to overcome the early absence of RF J.D. Martinez (foot). RHP Jordan Zimmermann definitely is capable of rebounding from a rough first season in Detroit. Look for LHP Daniel Norris, 23, to have a breakout year.

2. Cleveland Indians

Last year: 94-67, first.

Manager: Terry Francona.

Enlarged skinny: The Indians performed superbly in 2016, eventually losing to the Chicago Cubs, 4-3, in the World Series. That the shorthanded Indians were even competitive against the mighty Cubs is impressive, but the harsh reality is: They blew a 3-1 lead and ended with a 1-3 record at home. Tribe ownership kept the overall momentum going by spending boatloads of cash in the offseason, most of it on slugger Edwin Encarnacion. As formidable as Encarnacion is and can be, however, he is not a straight addition: He replaces 1B-DH Mike Napoli, who had 34 homers, 101 RBI and 92 runs in 150 games of his one season in Cleveland before returning to Texas. The Indians bolstered their bullpen with LHP Boone Logan, giving them two nasty lefties (Andrew Miller) when for so many years they had none.

The Indians won the division last season thanks largely to a terrific record within; they went a combined 49-26, including 28-9 against the Tigers and Royals. The Indians will have difficulty replicating those numbers. (They also will be hard-pressed to go consecutive seasons without more than a three-game losing streak.) The Tribe features a Hall of Fame-caliber manager and quality pieces all over the field, but there are legitimate health concerns about two of their better position players: 2B Jason Kipnis (right shoulder; DL to open season) and LF Michael Brantley (11 games in 2016; still recovering from right-shoulder surgery). What makes me most nervous about the Indians, and why I have them finishing behind Detroit, is the rotation after RHPs Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. RHP Danny Salazar does not pitch deep in games and was bothered by arm discomfort in the second half of 2016; RHP Josh Tomlin is gritty and gutty and crafty, but with a relatively low ceiling; and RHP Trevor Bauer is a box of chocolates -- you never know what you're going to get. The Tigers' lineup fears no one in the Tribe's rotation.

3. Kansas City Royals

Last year: 81-81, third.

Manager: Ned Yost.

Skinny: During the offseason, the Royals largely were ignored and otherwise dismissed as a threat to the Indians in the Central or to the upper tier of the American League. I'm puzzled as to why. I'm not expecting them to be awesome by any means, but I do see them fighting for a playoff spot deep into September. If breaks go their way, they could steal the division. It was not long ago that the Royals played in back-to-back World Series (2014-15), winning the second time. They dealt with all sorts of injuries and other issues last season but still found a way to finish .500. There have been subtractions, specifically in the bullpen, since the World Series glory days. And the Royals were dealt a cruel blow with the death of RHP Yordano Ventura, 25, in a car accident in January. But they have more than enough talent to compete, led by 1B Eric Hosmer, LF Alex Gordon, CF Lorenzo Cain and 3B Mike Moustakas. They don't get unnerved by the Tigers or Indians. If healthy, their contact percentage, defense and base-running should rank among the best in baseball. Their rotation, while not sexy, will be better than people think. Look for RHP Jason Hammel, who won 15 games for the Cubs in 2016, to be one of the best pitchers in the division.

4. Chicago White Sox

Last year: 78-84, fourth.

Manager: Rick Renteria.

Skinny: At this point, the division experiences a steep dropoff -- big three, little two. Fourth place makes sense, but does not come with shame, for the White Sox because they are rebuilding. In early December, the bosses shipped CF Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals and LHP Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox for a collection of interesting prospects whose MLB ETAs vary widely. Get the White Sox now, while you can. Provided that more significant veteran pieces don't get moved, they still can be pesky. Among those who have caused the Indians trouble: 1B Jose Abreu, LF Melky Cabrera and LHPs Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon. Keep an eye on SS Tim Anderson, 23, who showcased ample skills in 99 games of his first season in 2016.

5. Minnesota Twins

Last year: 59-103, fifth/last.

Manager: Paul Molitor.

Skinny: The Twins lost 103 games last year -- and it could have been worse. They owned the Indians early and finished a respectable 9-10 against them (runs: 92-92). The Twins won't be triple-digit-loss terrible this season because some of their highly touted youngsters, including 3B Miguel Sano and CF Byron Buxton, figure to improve alongside veterans such as 1B-DH Joe Mauer and 2B Brian Dozier. Keep on eye on RF Max Kepler, 24, who was solid as a rookie in 2016. The Twins' biggest problem among many is the rotation; none of the five members is consistently good enough or healthy enough to make the opposition uncomfortable.