The ‘bathroom bill’ and police killing have riven the vanguard of the New South, with Trump and Clinton’s support dividing along racial and educational lines

North Carolina has been in the eye of many storms this year. The state of emergency declared by Governor Pat McCrory ahead of the expected arrival of Hurricane Matthew this weekend follows similar civil measures in September when the police killing of a black man set off a wave of angry protests on the streets of the state’s largest city, Charlotte.

How will the election be decided? The president is chosen through the electoral college, in which each state is assigned a ​certain ​number of ​votes called ​electoral votes (EVs) ​. Electoral votes (EVs) ​, ​which are tied ​ultimately based on population. California has the most EVs, with 55; eight of the least populous states have only three apiece. Most states give all their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the state popular vote. ​ as state after state reports results, the candidates' tallies build. Whichever T ​A presidential candidate who claims ​ a majority – ​ at least 270 ​out ​of the 538 EVs ​– ​wins the election. ​Many states' preferences are clear beforehand, thanks to p ​ Polling and precedent mean the preferences of many states are clear beforehand, resulting in a focus on "swing" states ​. The focus on election night is on "swing states" that could go either way ​. Donald Trump needs a sweep of swing states (watch Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, among others) to win.

Few of the tempests to sweep by in 2016 have defined the national mood quite as much, though, as the political maelstrom battering this state. A vital battleground in the presidential election, North Carolina could determine whether Donald Trump manages to assemble enough angry white voters to make it all the way to the White House. A “bathroom ban” preventing transgender students from using toilets not matching the gender on their birth certificates has reopened the wounds of America’s culture wars, leading to a boycott by college sport authorities and protests from leading employers such as Apple, American Airlines and Bank of America.

But the conservative wave that allowed Republicans to take control of all layers of local government in the state is now threatening to drown the party itself. The fervour stoked by battles over gay rights, voter registration laws, and immigration is putting off many moderates and could yet see Democrats win presidential, Senate and gubernatorial races here in November.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Demonstrators march to protest about the police shooting of Keith Scott in Charlotte. Photograph: Mike Blake/Reuters

What has made such controversies so shocking to many outsiders is that the Tar Heel state had long since stopped conforming to any easy stereotypes of a politically conservative southern backwater. The recent protests against the killing of Keith Lamont Scott in Charlotte took place among gleaming downtown high-rises of the New South – race riots shattering the calm of what otherwise appears a diverse and progressive boomtown at the heart of one of America’s major transport and financial hubs.

Pride in North Carolina’s modern and open economy is still visible, despite the high-profile battles over sexual and racial equality. Drive into the state from the north, and road signs quickly herald its repeated ability to win Nobel prizes, celebrating last year’s award of the chemistry prize to a Turkish American biochemist, Aziz Sancar, based at the University of North Carolina (UNC) in Chapel Hill. He proudly spoke of being a US Muslim at his acceptance speech and told a Turkish newspaper that Trump should not be allowed to obscure America’s multicultural progress in the eyes of the world.

The US attorney general, Loretta Lynch, the first African American woman to hold the nation’s highest law enforcement job, is another famous North Carolinian. She clashed with the Republican governor, McCrory, when he signed the bathroom ban into law, filing a federal civil rights lawsuit against the legislation known as HB2, and she has spoken eloquently about the danger that recent clashes between police and violent protesters in Charlotte “drown out the voices of change” in the country.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Supporters watch Donald Trump’s motorcade arrive for a rally with supporters at High Point University in High Point, North Carolina. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Yet many young liberals in North Carolina are reeling from recent events, worried about the way their state is perceived around the country in ways that echo how many Americans feel about what Trump is doing to the image of the United States internationally.

“It embarrasses me,” says Jamisen Moore, a young medical engineering student at the UNC campus in Greensboro, a town once famous for civil rights protests at a segregated Woolworth counter that is now trying to buck the conservative backlash. “There is a weird mood politically,” she explains. “It brings out all the people who are at one extreme or another. People who think it’s a good idea are really vocal but the people who don’t are not, even though they think it’s bad, they are not out there and as loud.”

UNC Greensboro was one of the campuses that refused to implement the state-wide ban on allowing transgender students to use bathroom facilities of their choice.

Yet the university has nonetheless been swept up in the backlash. In September, the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) pulled a high-profile basketball tournament out of the state in protest at what it saw as unacceptable discrimination. Days later, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) did the same with big football games.

Charlotte protests: governor of North Carolina declares state of emergency Read more

“Duke [University] and UNC is the biggest rivalry in college basketball and we were going to be able to host it in our state but now we won’t be able to because of HB2,” says Moore, who believes the decisions have helped “wake people up” to the cost of being a pariah state.

It is not just students and sports fans who are appalled either. The mayor of Greensboro, Nancy Vaughan, describes the fight over civil liberties as the “best of times and the worst of times” because it is also helping galvanize moderate voters to stand up against those who pushed through the law and tend to lean more loudly toward Trump.

“These things have a habit of sorting themselves out and we will prevail,” said Vaughan during a recent rally at the campus by Hillary Clinton. “I bet there are people right here in this room who didn’t vote in the last council election … You know what? You are the problem. We need to get new voters to the polls in November.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Governor Pat McCrory: ‘Charlotte is a great city and we are not going to let a few hours make a negative impact.’ Photograph: ddp USA/Rex/Shutterstock

But in the meantime, the economic cost is high. The Charlotte Chamber of Commerce estimates that more than 1,000 jobs lost and $285m in economic damage has been caused by companies shunning the state in reaction to its illiberal policies.

“A state that sanctions discrimination will never be a world leader; instead, we’ll have to play second fiddle to other groups.” wrote local businessman Lloyd Smith after he was challenged to intervene by a customer who called the state “backward” for allowing HB2.

“It is the antithesis of building an economy for everyone,” added Mayor Vaughan. “This is a law that hurts our families our social fabric and our economy.”

Even Governor McCrory seems anxious to mitigate the worst affects of the legislation, signing an executive order protecting state employees from being fired for being gay or transgender after state lawmakers threatened to introduce anti-discrimination safeguards. And he seems acutely conscious that the state’s reputation could be further hurt by the national controversy over police violence. “Charlotte is a great city and we are not going to let a few hours make a negative impact,” said the governor in statement after the first night of disturbances over the killing of 43-year-old Scott.

McCrory was lagging in the polls when he first appeased the Tea Party right by signing HB2 into law, and dismissed critics in Trumpian terms by claiming “political correctness [had] run amok”, but Trump’s surge in North Carolina may be fading too and both could lose here in November.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Nine-year-old Zianna Oliphant joins Hillary Clinton at the pulpit at the Little Rock AME Zion church in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photograph: Brian Snyder/Reuters

Recent polls also reveal the social fragmentation driving state and national politics. Few swing states are as polarized, with Trump ahead by up to 53% to 28% among white voters, while Clinton has overwhelming black support at 86% to 3%. North Carolina also has a huge split among educational lines, with college-educated voters flocking to her and those without qualifications drawn to him.

For all the vaunted success of the so-called “research triangle”, Nobel prize-winning research does not employ enough to make up for the collapse in manufacturing jobs elsewhere in the state. One town just outside the gleaming new economy, Goldsboro, recently came bottom of a national league table for declines in its middle class.

It is no surprise that both Trump and Clinton are spending more time in North Carolina than almost any other state in the country.