With champion Germany out, who's the World Cup 'favorite' now?

Martin Rogers | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption Germany's historic failure proves to be Mexico's saving grace SportsPulse: USA TODAY Sports' Martin Rogers puts into perspective Germany's epic collapse and Mexico's chances in the round of 16.

MOSCOW — It is a funny thing, favoritism. At any time really, and especially at the World Cup.

We talk about favorites in sports and the reasons for that status is so often that it seems like the tag conveys a mythical benefit. Like an extra injection of pace into a player’s legs or, in the World Cup, a one-goal head-start.

In truth, that’s rarely – if ever – the case, with the burden of expectation more often serving as a weighted jacket.

On Wednesday, Germany became the latest team to turn favoritism into a fallacy, ending its campaign more than two weeks sooner than it thought it would, with the ignominy of a last-place finish in Group F, behind Sweden, Mexico and South Korea.

Such an outcome barely seemed possible a year ago, when the Germans sliced through the Confederations Cup with what amounted to a reserve team, nor at the start of this month, when it selected a squad so loaded with talent that a cache of genuine world-class stars were omitted.

But favoritism is shaky here because it is based on unreliable factors. Because soccer is primarily a club game and national teams don’t play together very often, likely winners are usually picked based on the strength of a squad on paper. In reality, soccer is a game more reliant than any other on the collective meshing of pieces.

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Performances against inferior opposition, in situations far different from the World Cup mean that preconceived notions are often misleading, tilted or out of date.

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It stands to reason that a previous World Cup champion should stand among the favorites for the next tournament, and it was clearly the case here. But Germany became old and stale over the intervening four years, and it took the most demanding competition in soccer to lay that bare.

Four of the past five World Cups have now seen the champion falter in the group stage, with Spain four years ago, Italy in 2010, and France in 2002. Only Brazil managed to survive that fate in 2006 by getting to the quarterfinals.

It is less a curse than a suggestion that four years is an eternity in international soccer, and that former glory is not a reliable barometer of a pending repeat.

With the champion gone, fans, observers, speculators, gamblers and the merely curious will look to see who will step into that breach. As the group stage closes out, there is no shortage of contenders.

There are those of true and tested historical strength. Brazil could have found itself in trouble on Wednesday night but was stylishly ruthless in disposing of Serbia to top Group F.

Only one South American team has won a World Cup staged in Europe, so it has its work cut out, but the victor in question was Brazil itself in 1958. Neymar is a charm, capable of performing the silkiest of skills and lamentably, the most elaborate of dives, and he hasn’t hit full stride yet here in Russia.

The very concept of favoritism is mainly derived from odds and betting, and the bookmakers, those unsentimental seekers of profit, have Spain at the top of their markets. Part of that is because of how the draw has unfolded, with Spain on what is considered the more comfortable side of the knockout bracket.

France is up there too in the odds table, and has every right to be considered among the chief contenders. It has quality in every position, sauntered through its group and its current crop came mightily close to winning the European Championship in 2016.

How it progresses may hinge on its ability to showcase the effectiveness of a strong team as opposed to a brilliant individual. France meets Lionel Messi’s newly-reprieved Argentina in the last 16, and could see a Euro final rematch with Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal in the quarters. Each of those soccer megastars craves a World Cup title. Both may feel a little wounded that their teams are regarded as being only on the fringes of the group of serious contenders.

Indeed, Belgium, England, Uruguay and Croatia all have better prospects and more rounded teams. England’s golden era is nearly an obsolete memory, with its sole title coming in 1966. Uruguay’s wait – since 1950 – is even longer, while the Belgians and Croats are running out of time to capitalize on their respective golden generations.

Beyond that you have the optimistic believers of Mexico, capable of excellence and ineptitude depending on the day, and even host nation Russia. The host was quite the opposite of a favorite coming into the tournament, ranked lowest out of all teams and even written off by its own fans.

The rest of the round of 16 is made up of squads with fan bases that are simply delighted to still be around, because Moscow is not such a bad place to be in the summer and there’s something to be said for still being kicking when half the field has packed up and gone home.

For everyone who is left, it is a race to the finish. Thursday’s conclusion to the group stage means that 75 percent of the tournament’s games will have been played, even if the duration of the event is less than halfway done.

More upsets will surely follow but even when that happens, the deposed favorites are replaced by new favorites, until there are no favorite at all...

Just one winner.