A change in formation before the side’s first World Cup has brought mixed success but the coach believes 5-4-1 can trouble Belgium and England

This article is part of the Guardian’s 2018 World Cup Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the 32 countries who have qualified for Russia. theguardian.com is running previews from two countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 14 June.

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For many observers, Hernán Darío Gómez’s much-analysed 5-4-1 formation was the key development to arise from Panama’s European mini-tour in March. Friendlies in Denmark and Switzerland brought a departure from the 4-4-2 setup that had largely seen them through qualifying, the veteran coach opting to test a system similar to the one that has become popular at the top level over the past two years.

In the first match, against the Danes in Copenhagen, Panama were generally impressive. They began aggressively, the formation more resembling a 3-4-3 before they were pushed back, and there was plenty to admire: tactical order, compact lines across the pitch, creativity in the midfield, good physicality and defensive solidity. A 1-0 defeat was no disgrace and the mould seemed to have been set for this summer’s challenge. In Switzerland it was a different story. Gómez changed most of the team, and the result was a resounding 6-0 defeat with few mitigating factors.

Despite the two very different faces Panama showed in Europe, 5-4-1 remains the dominant system in Gómez’s mind: a means, in his view, of competing head to head against Belgium and England, the two major powers of Group G.

The change in strategy has broadly gone down well among the players, who had little time to adapt to their new instructions but showed some promise. Édgar Joel Bárcenas, who put in a particularly impressive performance on the right wing against Denmark, said afterwards: “Changing the lineup was a positive. We are used to this 3-5-2 [or 5-4-1]. I think the discipline and concentration that we showed at times was the positive thing to come out of this game.”

After the Switzerland defeat, Bárcenas added that things were still generally on track. “What our coach planned we carried out for the most part,” he said. “This game was tougher than Denmark. We have to concentrate, think and see what he wants us to do.”

The Honduras-based left-back Luis Ovalle elaborated on the instructions Gómez laid out. “Our coach made us play with five in the middle,” he said. “The key points were: keep the ball and attack quickly. Keep concentration in defence and for everyone to work together.”



The last few weeks showed that the coach had one more tactical possibility up his sleeve: the 4-1-4-1. An injury to Alberto Quintero, suffered against Norway on 6 June and which ruled him out of the whole World Cup, was a severe blow and the team have been forced to adjust. Genk’s José Luis Rodríguez is likely to take his place.



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Probable starting XI

Panama probable starting XI

Which player is going to surprise everyone at the World Cup 2018?

The NY Red Bulls centre-back Fidel Escobar. He has a powerful right‑footed shot and is comfortable taking the ball out of defence. Also look out for the Dinamo Bucharest goalkeeper Jaime Penedo.

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Which player is likely to disappoint?

Román Torres, one of the real stars of the qualifiers. He is carrying an injury and might play without being at a sharp enough level to trouble England and Belgium.



What is the realistic aim for Panama at the World Cup and why?

To avoid getting thrashed. After that, we would be happy with a draw. To win a game would be a genuine joy in our first World Cup. We just want to give a good account of ourselves and compete.

José M Domínguez works for TVN Panama.

Follow him on Twitter here.