We are asked to believe that having campaign money isn't important. That campaign organization and infrastructure don't matter, even in a fight for delegates spread across 50 states. That it's OK for the entire campaign brain trust of the apparent front-runner to reside under one head of hair and between one set of ears. That it's feasible for one person to not only devise but also implement a national strategy and tactical plans for every state.

Then we are asked to believe that Republicans, specifically conservatives, are going to ignore some of the more problematic aspects of Gingrich's background and policy positions. I personally like and respect Gingrich a great deal, and he has always been nice to me and generous with his time, so I won't rehash all of his potential problems among conservatives. Let's just take one--sitting on a love seat with the reviled Nancy Pelosi talking about climate change, in a 2008 ad that he was asked to do by former Vice President Al Gore, another Democrat not held in exceedingly high regard among Republicans. How is that appearance going to look when an opponent cuts it up and puts it into an ad aired on Fox? A large closet, if not a whole warehouse, of opposition research on Gingrich is being readied and is just now starting to be unloaded. This material is arguably much richer than anything ever assembled against any other candidate. After all, Gingrich has been in the political arena for a very long time and has had far more than his share of detractors willing to share their grievances.

None of this is to suggest that Gingrich cannot win the Republican nomination. It is to suggest that, now that the spotlight is aimed almost exclusively on him, Gingrich has to clear very real obstacles. We should be mindful of the 2008 entrance polls of Iowa caucus attendees and the exit polls of New Hampshire primary voters. Both showed that approximately 70 percent of participants made up their minds in the last four weeks before the balloting; current polls in these states, meanwhile, indicate that 60 to 65 percent say they may not make up their minds until the final weeks. In this Republican nomination contest of musical chairs, the music hasn't stopped yet.

From my perspective, I believe that fundamentals still matter. Someday, someone who has raised very little money may win a presidential nomination. Someday, someone with minimal campaign organization and infrastructure may become the nominee. Someday, someone who has served in Congress with hundreds of fellow party members and dozens of former staff but who has very, very few of them endorsing him and working on his campaign may win. But we are asked to believe that all of this is going to happen in 2012.