When the Airbus A380 took its maiden flight in 2005, the pan-European company promised airborne lounges, quieter engines, and an unprecedented double-decker fuselage billed as the killer of Boeing's 747 jumbo jet.

Key points: Experts say Airbus hedged a bet on large aircrafts, which turned out to be wrong

Experts say Airbus hedged a bet on large aircrafts, which turned out to be wrong Composite fuselages and hybrid engines are now being created in a race for efficiency

Composite fuselages and hybrid engines are now being created in a race for efficiency The prospect of electric or hybrid commercial airliners landing at airports is decades away

But, fewer than 20 years since its launch, the market has decided the A380 was more of a fizzer, leading Airbus to announce that it would cease production of the jetliner by 2021.

"[The A380] was a 15-year-old bet where Boeing said that aviation's future was going to be 'point-to-point' routes whereas Airbus said it was going to continue to rely on 'major hub' airports," said Professor Brian Falzon, the head of school of mechanical and aerospace engineering at Queen's University Belfast.

"With air traffic doubling every 15 years, Airbus thought hubs would be the model … and in the long run it has proved to be wrong," he said.

In a press statement announcing the decision, Airbus chief executive Tom Enders said there was no substantial A380 order backlog to sustain its ongoing production.

"The A380 is an outstanding engineering and industrial achievement," Mr Enders said.

"Passengers all over the world love to fly on this great aircraft, hence today's announcement is painful for us and the A380 communities worldwide," he said.

Aircraft manufacturers prioritising efficiency over scale

Rolls Royce's Trent 1000-TEN engines power Boeing's Dreamliner fleet. ( US Air Force: Rick Goodriend )

Further reports noted that the A380's main buyer, Emirates, significantly reduced its orders after it was unable to secure more efficient jet engines from Rolls Royce, while in 2017, it surprised Airbus by opting for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner — a smaller aircraft capable of travelling greater distances with more fuel efficiency.

"What's happened since the A380 is the emergence of highly efficient composite aircraft that it could no longer compete against," Professor Falzon said.

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Today, consumers can choose from hybrid, fully-electric or hydrogen-powered cars in addition to traditional combustion engines, but the prospect of electric, or hybrid commercial airliners landing at airports is decades away.

"If you look at what's happened since the 1950s to now — even though you could say conceptually the engines look almost the same — there have been tremendous advancements in jet technology," Professor Falzon said.

He also noted that one of the biggest advances is the greater efficiencies created since the advent of high-bypass turbofan engines — aircraft engines with a larger fan at the front and a turbine at the rear that splits air inside and outside of its core to drive greater fuel efficiency.

"Of course emissions have gone down tremendously since the start of the jet era, and efficiencies in that time have doubled," Professor Falzon said.

He added that engine manufacturers such as Rolls Royce and Pratt and Whitney are working on the next generation of aircraft power plants that are likely to make geared jet engines more common, and in the near future, "hybridisation".

The future of aviation's all down to weight

By 2040, Norway wants all short-haul flights to be fully-electric — an announcement that was made after the country's first electric-powered flight in 2018.

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In order to make that flight, its two passengers — including Norway's transport minister Ketil Solvik-Olsen — had to submit to a strict diet before the short flight to keep the plane in the air.

"A lot of [aircraft] systems that have previously been powered by the engines are now powered by batteries, so [future systems] might include batteries as part of the propulsion system," Professor Falzon said.

Compared to cars, keeping weight down is a major concern of battery-powered planes, as aircrafts won't become lighter by touch down, nor do batteries propel planes with the same power as jet fuel.

Moein Khaloei, a researcher at the University of Washington's Sustainable Transport Lab, wrote on the lab's blog that "1 kilogram of jet fuel contains 70 times as much energy as the best existing lithium-ion battery".

With current battery technology, this means that an electric or hybrid plane's range and carrying loads are severely hindered.

Recent electricity-powered flights have been capped at 30 minutes to 1.5 hours with a maximum of two passengers.

"It seems that for at least the medium term, conventional planes still dominate the skies, especially for medium and long-haul flights," Mr Khaloei wrote.

In the interim, Professor Falzon said that private business jet manufacturers were more likely to have the cash to fund the next generation of jet technology.

"John Travolta doesn't really care whether he's paying an extra million here or there.

"Whereas if you're [Michael] O'Leary [CEO] of Ryanair, you're going to be shaving every penny or Euro that you can off the price," he said.

Are we seeing the end of the 'big-bird' era?



Boeing's Dreamliners are made out of carbon-fibre, allowing Qantas to fly between Perth and London non-stop. ( Supplied: Qantas )

While the A380 program is scheduled to end in a few years' time, current developments point to a world where smaller more nimble aircraft can travel even greater distances.

In 2017, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce challenged aircraft makers to create a plane capable of flying non-stop between Australia's eastern seaboard to cities such as London and New York — an ask that Mr Joyce said would answer aviation's "last frontier".

In May 2018, the Australian carrier also announced that it would retire its 747 fleet by 2020 in favour of Boeing's 787-9 Dreamliner — a plane servicing Qantas's non-stop Perth to London route.

Today only a handful of carriers are flying the 747 jumbo as part of their regular fleet.

"The good thing about the aerospace industry is that the business case is actually compatible and consistent with the environmental case," Professor Falzon said.

The research and development for the A380 was marred by significant cost overruns and delays that some speculate reached up to $US25 billion ($35 billion), while Boeing said it would break even on the Dreamliner project by 2021 — pending 1,100 deliveries.

"It's very difficult to get from aircraft manufacturers the point at which they break even … there's even a question as to whether the A380 will ever be at all profitable, and the 787 probably hasn't crossed the break even point either," Professor Falzon said.

"The important thing to keep in mind is that creating new aircraft is a tremendously expensive exercise, and certifying new aircraft is extremely expensive, too — especially for new materials and systems," he said.

Qantas, Air New Zealand and Emirates were contacted but declined to comment.

