Virginia Right! has created a new computer modeling program that allows us to plug in the poll demographics of today’s polls and calculate the results based on the actual voter turnout as far as party affiliation in the presidential elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008. In addition, the software calculates the what-if scenario if Republicans, Democrats and Independents turn out in exactly even numbers, as well as the polled 2012 party identification, which is presently Republicans +2.

What we do is use the party split of both parties and the independents and apply those ratios to the models from the other election years.

In most polls, Republicans are found to overwhelmingly favor Romney and Democrats overwhelmingly favor Obama. No real surprise there. But this year, thye Independents are breaking for Romney in nearly every poll, and by significant numbers. The exact opposite happened in 2008 when Obama benefited from the Independent voters.

Take a look at the chart below. There are 7 polls that are presently being averaged at Real Clear Politics for Virginia. These are the ones we analyzed with our new computer modeling software. The RCP average shows that Romney is up by only 0.5% – a half of a point.

But then we look at the skew! And anyone living in Virginia is well aware of the Republican sweep of 2009 when Republicans swept the top 3 state offices, and the continued Republican resurgence in 2010 where Virginia was a great part in retaking the US House and 2011 where we managed a tie in the state senate despite the job protecting redistricting the Democrats did with the Senate lines. All of these polls skew between 4 and 8 points towards Democrats except Rasmussen which is the lone Republican advantage of the last 7 polls.

Virginia didn’t even lean that far to the left in 2008 when Obamamania was at it’s height.

Check out the result and skew of each poll and the way it would have turned out in the las t 3 elections, as well as “even” and 2012.

Poll Date Grade Skew Results Neutral 2000 2004 2008 2012 Va CBS-NYT-Q 10-23 10/23 - 10/28 68 (D) Dems + 8 O -49% R-47% Obama + 2 O- 46% R- 51% Romney (R) +5 O- 46.5% R- 51.6% Romney (R) +5.1 O- 44.5%% R- 53.3% Romney (R) +8.8 O- 48% R- 49.3% Romney (R) +1.3 O- 46.2% R- 51% Romney (R) +4.8 Va Gravis 10-26 10/26 - 10/26 57 (F) Dems + 8 O -48% R-48% TIE O- 43.4% R- 52.7% Romney (R) +9.3 O- 45.1% R- 51.8% Romney (R) +6.7 O- 43.3%% R- 53.6% Romney (R) +10.3 O- 46.7% R- 49.5% Romney (R) +2.8 O- 43.7% R- 52.7% Romney (R) +9 Va Roanoke 10-23 10/23 - 10/26 82 (B) Dems + 4 O -44% R-49% Romney +5 O- 43.6% R- 51.9% Romney (R) +8.3 O- 45.6% R- 52% Romney (R) +6.4 O- 43.7%% R- 53.8% Romney (R) +10.1 O- 47.2% R- 49.8% Romney (R) +2.6 O- 43.9% R- 52% Romney (R) +8.1 Va Rasmussen 10-24 10/24 - 10/24 54 (F) Repubs +2 O -48% R-50% Romney +2 O- 48.4% R- 49.1% Romney (R) +0.7 O- 48.7% R- 49.5% Romney (R) +0.8 O- 46.7%% R- 51.3% Romney (R) +4.6 O- 50.4% R- 46.9% Obama (D) + 3.5 O- 48.3% R- 49.5% Romney (R) +1.2 Va Purple 10-23 10/23 - 10/25 76 (C) Dems + 5 O -47% R-47% TIE O- 45% R- 47.3% Romney (R) +2.3 O- 47.8% R- 48.3% Romney (R) +0.5 O- 45.8%% R- 50.2% Romney (R) +4.4 O- 49.5% R- 45.8% Obama (D) + 3.7 O- 44.8% R- 47.8% Romney (R) +3 Va WaPo 10-22 10/22 - 10/26 71 (C) Dems + 4 O -51% R-47% Obama + 4 O- 46.7% R- 46.7% TIE O- 48.9% R- 48.3% Obama (D) + .6 O- 46.8%% R- 50.2% Romney (R) +3.4 O- 50.7% R- 45.8% Obama (D) + 4.9 O- 46.3% R- 47.2% Romney (R) +0.9 Va Fox News 10-23 10/23 - 10/24 61 (D) Dems + 5 O -45% R-47% Romney +2 O- 41.3% R- 49% Romney (R) +7.7 O- 44.6% R- 50.4% Romney (R) +5.8 O- 42.7%% R- 52.3% Romney (R) +9.6 O- 46% R- 48% Romney (R) +2 O- 41.7% R- 49.2% Romney (R) +7.5

It is not really much of a shock that the Washington Post poll shows the largest Obama lead. That poll is not revealing much of the internal numbers and they had to be calculated, but it is odd that the breakdown of independents is exactly evenly split at 45% each. None of the other polls show that.

In fact, they show just the opposite.

The CBS poll shows Romney with a 57% to 36% advantage with Independents, a 21 point advantage. Gravis shows Romney ahead with I’s 58 to 3, Ronake gives Romney a 59 – 33 advantage, Romney has a 49 – 44 advantage with Rasmussen, 41 – 45 with Purple, and a 53 – 29 lead in the Fox Poll.

And with these numbers in 2008, the best Obama could have done in Virginia was a tie at 48% each.

These polls all show the enthusiasm is with the Romney voters and there is no gender gap, except the one Obama has with men. Romney is tied in most of the polls as far as the female vote goes. Young people are not lining up like they did in 2008 for Obama and the elderly have moved in droves to Romney.

2004 was a good year for Republicans. 2008 was a good year for Democrats. But 2012 is not going to look anything like 2008. It does not appear to be as good for the Republicans as 2004, but it won’t be far behind based on the polling data.

We are looking at at least a 5 point Romney win in Virginia and George Allen had been tracking a couple of points behind Romney, but looks to have come up almost even. And more importantly, at least 4 points better than Tim Kaine.

Real Clear Politics says it’s a dead heat, but at least 3 major polling firms have pulled out of Virginia and called it for Romney and Allen.

And we clearly believe they are correct.