What a wild ride we have been on this year. After a week 2 blowout against the Jets that had us sitting at 2-0, it looked by all accounts that we were right back in 2016 mid-season form. The offense looked great, Carr was humming and even recent acquisition Marshawn Lynch hosted a sideline dance party.

Then, the inexplicable hit us like a ton of proverbial bricks….

It’s what I call The DC Debacle©. Suddenly, in the span of four quarters, all of JDR’s ‘Mojo’ came to a screeching halt. During that contest in Washington, and the three putrid games that followed, nothing went right. Previous boy-genius Todd Downing’s offense transformed into a league-wide joke along with our (lowercase) d that more closely resembled a sieve than an NFL caliber defensive unit. Suffice it to say that at 2-4 things were not looking good in Oakland.

Just when it appeared that the outright ugliness could transform into outright implosion, a funny thing happened.

Unexpectedly, the team responded just like a wounded cat would when backed into a corner. Against a heavily favored 5-1 KC team, the Raiders came out scrapping and clawing like their season depended on it. Carr had his best game of the year and a previously comatose Cooper somehow produced a career-high 200+ yard performance that helped seal a desperately needed, victory.

Now, as we fast forward to this week, the team once again finds itself in an eerily similar, must-win situation facing the same adversary.

With three teams currently tied atop the AFC West sporting less-than-impressive 6-6 records, it might appear to the casual observer that the matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders might not in fact be “do or die.” And mathematically speaking, those observers would be correct.

Neither team would be eliminated with a loss. That said, the loser of this contest on Sunday will no question have a much harder time clawing their way into the post season. As always, especially here within the confines of the TRF Playoff Pontificator, we will let the numbers determine just how difficult that climb would be.

This week, we will concentrate on the ramifications of how a Raider win or loss on Sunday affects their chances of an AFC West Championship. Keep in mind that scenarios exist for both KC and Oakland to make the post season as wild card teams. However, as you will see below, the best chance for ANY of the three teams still alive in the AFC West to make the playoffs is by securing the AFC West title.

It is also worth noting that I am not concentrating on analyzing the Chargers as a key variable this week since the Chargers chances of making the post season do not materially depend on the outcome of our matchup with KC this Sunday. Of course all of that changes next week when LA visits KC. It is highly likely that loser of that contest will be in flatline mode for the remainder of 2017.

In any event, before we get into the machinations of how a win or loss translates on Sunday, lets take a quick look at how things stand right now in the AFC West for all three teams still in contention.

Prior to kickoff, here are the individual odds for the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders to make the tournament, win the Division and get an AFC wild card berth.

Kansas City (6-6; 1st place in the AFC west):

The ‘Division leading’ Chiefs are flailing after losing 6 of their past 7 games but are still managing to holding on to the top spot in the AFC West and the number 4 Seed due to a 2-1 AFC West divisional record. Currently, KC has a 54% chance of reaching playoffs, a 51% chance of winning the AFC West and a 3% chance of securing a wildcard berth.

Los Angeles (6-6; 2nd in the AFC West):

The Chargers on the other hand have won 6 of their last 8 matchups and are ahead of the Raiders in 2nd place due to their earlier victory over Oakland. Currently, the chargers have a 33% chance of receiving a playoff berth, a 30% chance of winning the AFC West and a 3% chance of making the post season as a wildcard.

Oakland (6-6; 3rd in the AFC West):

The 3rd place Raiders have a 21% chance of securing a playoff berth, a 19% chance of winning the AFC West and a 2% chance of earning a wildcard slot.

At first glance the ‘statistical spread’ between the three teams may seem a bit surprising, given the teams’ identical 6-6 records. However, after diving a little deeper, one discovers that the Raiders have a much tougher path going forward.

Oakland only has 1 home game remaining (Cowboys) and do not face a team with a losing record. Conversely, the Chiefs and Chargers have 3 and 2 home games remaining, respectively and do not face any teams with winning records. When combined these factors help explain the playoff likelihood discrepancies we see above.

Ok, this is all well and good, but you may ask how will things change after KC and Oakland face off this Sunday?

If the Raiders win on Sunday:

– Oakland’s odds to make the Playoffs increase to 45% (+24%)

– Oakland’s odds to win the AFC West increase to 43% (+24%)

– KC’s odds to make the Playoffs fall to 23% (-31%)

– KC’s odds to win the AFC West fall to 20% (-31%)

If the Chiefs win on Sunday:

– KC’s odds to make the Playoffs increase to 74% (+20%)

– KC’s odds to win the AFC West increase to 71% (+20%)

– Oakland’s odds to make the Playoffs fall to 5% (-16%)

– Oakland’s odds to win the AFC West fall to 3% (-16%)

As the numbers above show, Sunday’s outcome is critical for Oakland. A loss puts the Raiders chances at 5% (i.e. 1 in 20) to make the playoffs. And while a loss certainly does not help the Chiefs odds, they still would have ~ a 1 in 4 shot at making the post season after a defeat on Sunday.

As noted in last weeks TRF PP, the Raiders have no real choice except to win BOTH remaining AFC West matchups. This stipulation does not exist for the Chiefs. Even with a loss on Sunday, KC would still have a 68% (2 in 3) chance of making the playoffs if they were to finish at 9-7, while the Raiders odds at 9-7 after a loss would sit at 37% (roughly 1 in 3).

So there you have it. Obviously the Raiders have a big test in front of them. How they handle it will go a long way in determining their playoff fate come January. I for one have faith in Carr and company to once again answer the challenge standing in front of them. One thing is for certain. Both teams will leave everything they have on the field, making this a must-see matchup that has the potential to become an epic battle we will not soon forget.

And now for your amusement, I leave you with this week’s TuckRoo’Foo’ishFact©

I have not included an “other games to root” for section in this week’s Edition because the ONLY other game that matters is the Redskins @ Chargers matchup.

Why is this the case? That’s because the odds of the Raiders securing a wildcard slot have dramatically reduced. This might seem a bit odd given the fact that the team is merely one game behind the 6th Seed 7-5 Baltimore Ravens. However, if we once again dig a bit deeper into the numbers we begin to see why this is the case.

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For starters, due an early season loss to the Ravens, the Raiders are actually 2 games behind both Baltimore and Tennessee (who is currently sitting at 8-4). With only 4 games remaining, securing a 5th or 6th seed would likely mean winning at least 9 games.

But here’s the twist. If the Raiders can somehow pull off 10 wins (or 9 with an AFC West sweep) they are 100% guaranteed to win the AFC West, which of course is preferable given the higher seeding and guaranteed home game that comes with it. While there are 9-7 (and even some crazy 8-8) scenarios that get the Raiders into the playoffs as a wild card, those particular pathways are limited.

And speaking of crazy scenarios…

If the Raiders do end up beating both KC and LA, the odds of them winning the AFC West at 8-8 is still 66-68%! What is even more mind-boggling is the fact that the odds of a Raider AFC West Championship after a 9-7 finish (that includes a loss to KC or LA) sits at only 35-47%. Ponder that…

Written by: Tuck’Roo Foo’