Prospects of an early end to the big dry affecting much of eastern Australia are diminishing, with the latest estimates from the Bureau of Meteorology pointing to drought conditions intensifying and seeping southwards into Victoria.

Separately, new research out Wednesday points to an acceleration of global warming in the years to 2022, with natural variability predicted to accelerate the background increase in temperatures from climate change.

Dry conditions that have taken hold over much of NSW, such as this farm near Mudgee, are forecast to extend into Victoria. Credit:Janie Barrett

The bureau's latest update on climate influences in the Pacific and Indian oceans indicate that the odds of an El Nino forming by the end of the year remain about 50 per cent.

El Ninos typically result in drier and hotter than average summers for eastern Australia as rainfall shifts eastwards.