Joey Garrison

jgarrison@tennessean.com

Donald Trump has a sizable lead over Hillary Clinton in Tennessee one month before the presidential election, according to a new Vanderbilt University poll that reaffirms what most prognosticators expected in the politically red state.

Trump, the Republican nominee, has support of 44 percent of Tennessee registered voters, the poll found, compared with 33 percent for Clinton, the Democratic nominee.

The poll found 7 percent of respondents support Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 1 percent support Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Seven percent said they didn't know whom they would vote for, and 5 percent said they would not vote at all or backed another candidate.

The poll, a survey of 1,000 registered voters with a margin or error of 3.7 percentage points, was taken between Sept. 19 and Oct. 2. Although the first presidential debate occurred between those dates, the poll indicates it did little to change the minds of voters.

“People are locked in,” said John Geer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt who helped oversee the poll. “They have their preferences and they’re not going to shift them very much, barring a cataclysmic event. Tennessee is going to go Republican. There’s no debate about that.”

In 2008, Republican John McCain beat Democrat Barack Obama in Tennessee, 57 percent to 42 percent. Mitt Romney defeated Obama in 2012 by a margin of 59 percent to 39 percent.

Geer said the poll indicates that Trump is underperforming slightly in Tennessee compared with Romney four years ago but not enough to make the state competitive.

Vanderbilt's poll, which was led by the university's Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, comes two days after Middle Tennessee State University released a poll that showed a similarly sized lead for Trump. The latter had Trump, a celebrity real estate mogul, with support of 48 percent of Tennessee voters and Clinton, former U.S. secretary of state, at 36 percent here.

Trump’s biggest stronghold, according to the Vanderbilt poll, is in Republican-heavy East Tennessee, where he leads Clinton by a 53 percent to 28 percent margin. He also holds a comfortable lead in Middle Tennessee's suburban and rural counties, where he was found with 50 percent of the vote compared with just 21 percent for Clinton.

Clinton leads Trump big in West Tennessee, which includes heavily African-American and Democratic stronghold Memphis, by a 46 percent to 28 percent margin. But perhaps surprisingly, the poll showed Clinton leading Trump by only a 40 percent to 38 percent in Democrat-leaning Nashville.

Greer said he wouldn't put much stock in the small two-point margin in Nashville because the poll was designed to look at a statewide sample size, not one concentrated in only Nashville.

"The data suggests it's really close (in Nashville), but she's going to win Davidson County comfortably at the end of the day," he said. "I would be willing to bet on that."

A poll conducted by Vanderbilt in May had found Trump leading by 9 percentage points in Tennessee, meaning the horse race in the Volunteer State hasn't budged much from five months ago.

Trump is outperforming Clinton with rural voters who identify as being religious, according to the Vanderbilt poll, evidence of his high marks with evangelical voters.

The poll found a slight enthusiasm gap between the two candidates, with 86 percent of Trump backers in Tennessee saying they are very or somewhat enthusiastic to vote for him compared with 77 percent of Clinton supporters who said the same about voting for her.

Nationally, Trump has struggled to compete for female voters, particularly in suburban areas. But the Vanderbilt poll found Trump ahead of Clinton among Tennessee female voters by a 42 percent to 33 percent count. Similarly, Trump is beating Clinton among Tennessee college-educated voters, a category he has struggled with nationally, but the margin is by a smaller 42 percent to 36 percent spread.

"Trump does best among those with less education, but even among those with college degrees or more Clinton does better but never actually surpasses Trump," said Josh Clinton, a Vanderbilt political scientist and co-director of the Vanderbilt poll.

Trump is leading among voters between 18 and 29 in Tennessee, the Vanderbilt poll found, with support from 38 percent of this group. Clinton has support of 28 percent of these voters, only 6 percentage points ahead of Johnson.

Not surprisingly, Trump is doing well with Tennessee voters who describe themselves as angry with the direction of the country, capturing 73 percent of that electorate in Tennessee. Clinton leads with voters who said they are “content” with the direction of the country, netting 66 percent of this group.

Also reflecting a national trend, 74 percent of Trump supporters said they back him for his ability to bring change. Forty-eight percent of Clinton supporters cited her personality and temperament.

"These two different supporters are validating the candidates by using two very different sets of ways about thinking about the world," Clinton said. "Trump supporters want to bring about change, whereas Clinton supporters, by and large, are thinking about personality and temperament and the type of person they want in the White House."

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.

Preference of registered Tennessee voters

Donald Trump, Republican — 44 percent

Hillary Clinton, Democrat — 33 percent

Gary Johnson, Libertarian Party — 7 percent

Jill Stein, Green Party — 1 percent

Some other candidate/would not vote — 5 percent

Undecided — 7 percent

* Poll of 1,000 registered Tennessee voters, taken between Sept. 19 and Oct. 2. Margin of error +/- 3.7 percentage points.