Robert Moore

El Paso Times

Texas' three largest border counties saw an 83 percent increase in turnout on Monday's first day of early voting compared to 2012.

El Paso County turnout increased by106 percent over 2012, to 19,458, according to figures released by the Texas Secretary of State's Office on Tuesday. Cameron County (Brownsville) turnout increased by 75 percent on the first day of early voting, and Hidalgo County (McAllen) turnout rose 70 percent.

Other large Texas counties also showed large increases in first-day early voting turnout, according to the secretary of state's figures for the 15 largest Texas counties. Only one county had a larger percentage increase than El Paso. Travis County (Austin) had a 120 percent jump.

The 12 large Texas counties not on the border showed a 52 percent increase in first day early voting turnout, well behind the 83 percent growth rate for the three large border counties.

Sylvia Manzano, a principal with Latino Decisions, a national political consulting firms, said the first-day jump in early voting is likely a harbinger of higher turnout among Hispanics, particularly along the border.

"I do think we're going to see higher turnout in those counties where we traditionally don't," Manzano said. "We know there was a lot of voter registration work that happened in those areas. One thing that we do know, just across the board, research tells us that the people who registered to vote more recently are also likely to vote."

Even with the big jump over 2012, the border counties with the exception of Hidalgo continue to trail non-border counties in turnout as a percentage of registered voters. The first day turnout represented less than 5 percent of registered voters in El Paso and Cameron counties, while most other large counties saw turnout in the 6 to 8 percent range.

The emotionally charged presidential race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton appears to have pushed more Texans to the polls this year, at least earlier in the election cycle. Early voting continues through Nov. 4 and Election Day is Nov. 8.

Richard Pineda, an associate professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Texas at El Paso, said the early voting numbers reflect concerns voters have during this election.

"I think the new voting numbers suggest the impact of outreach, and suggest the benefit of different groups trying to mobilize voters," Pineda said.

Pineda added that it'll be crucial to look at the numbers from the second and third day of early voting. He said he expects the numbers to drop to numbers of previous years, but if they rise it can have a remarkable impact on El Paso.

"If days two and three are solid, then I think we’re looking at a revolutionary election," Pineda said.

An El Paso Times analysis of the first day of early voting in El Paso County indicates that the Trump-Clinton race is driving new or infrequent voters to the polls.

About 25 percent of those who voted in El Paso County on Monday did not vote in the 2012 election in El Paso. More than half of those who didn't vote in 2012 had registered in El Paso since the last election.

About 54 percent of the Monday voters in El Paso were women. The average age of the voters was 61, though the average age of voters who didn't vote in El Paso in 2012 was 51.

Texas does not provide ethnicity data on voters, so the county election records can't show how many of the voters on Monday were Hispanic and how many were non-Hispanic. But a group of Coronado High School students conducted exit polls at El Paso early voting sites on Monday that showed about 63and are scheduled to release preliminary results Tuesday afternoon.

Robert Moore is editor of the El Paso Times. Contact him at 546-6149; bmoore@elpasotimes.com; @BobMooreNews on Twitter. El Paso Times reporter Sara Sanchez contributed to this story.

Correction: An earlier version of this story had incorrect numbers for turnout change in Nueces and Galveston counties. Nueces County was up 40 percent and Galveston County up 38 percent.