Voters fill out their ballot as they prepare to cast their primary vote, Aug. 30, in Hialeah, Fla. | AP Photo/Alan Diaz Florida Democrats widen early vote lead thanks to South Florida Sunday blowout

In a final surge, Florida Democrats stormed early voting polling stations in the Sunday before Election Day and widened their lead over Republicans to 88,000 ballots cast thanks to the strong support of African-Americans and Latinos in the nation’s biggest battleground state.

The Democrats nearly tripled their Saturday lead thanks to historic voting numbers in just two counties: Miami-Dade and Broward. About 100,000 voters showed up to those two counties Sunday, casting almost 39 percent of the ballots in the 16 counties that held a final day of in-person early voting before Election Day.


If Hillary Clinton wins Florida — and therefore the presidential race — it will be on the strength of these two urban counties, which form the Miami TV media market along with much-smaller Monroe County in the Florida Keys. In this Hispanic- and black-heavy media market, Democrats have rolled up a nearly 318,000-vote margin over Republicans in total in-person early votes and mail-in absentee ballots.

Florida has 10 total media markets that cover varying regions of the state and include different combinations of the state's 67 counties. None gave one party the advantage that Miami's market gave to the Democrats.

Republicans have had their best showing in the far-smaller Naples-Fort Myers market, where they have a 107,000 vote advantage in pre-Election Day ballots cast over Democrats. The GOP also leads Democrats in ballots cast in the markets of Jacksonville (a 78,000 lead); Pensacola (a 68,000 lead); Panama City (19,000); and they’re also out-voting Democrats in the crucial markets that form the vaunted I-4 corridor in the state: Orlando (where the GOP has a 10,000-ballot lead over Democrats) and Tampa (a 44,000 lead).

Democrats are ahead of the GOP in the markets of West Palm Beach (48,000 more ballots than Republicans); Tallahassee (30,000); and Gainesville (17,000).

Though ballots won’t be opened and tallied until Election Day, party registration strongly correlates with support for the top-of-the-ticket candidates. So the early and absentee ballot returns are used as a rough gauge of the strength of the Clinton and Donald Trump campaigns.

The preference of independents, who have cast about 22 percent of the 6.4 million pre-Election Day ballots, is far-harder to estimate, however.

A Monday Quinnipiac University poll of likely Florida voters, for instance, showed Clinton with a marginal 45-44 percent lead over Trump among independents — a statistical tie. Overall, Clinton is essentially tied with Trump in Florida 46-45 percent. The poll also showed Clinton edging Trump 47-43 percent among those who said they had early voted.

“This is what Florida politics are like in the first part of the 21st century. There aren’t blowouts in Florida. There aren’t big margins,” said Peter A. Brown, Quinnipiac’s assistant polling director.

Compared to where they were in 2012, when Democrats had a 167,000-ballot lead the day before Election Day, Democrats have cast fewer pre-Election Day ballots this election. However, that 167,000 margin in 2012 could be recalculated to be as small as 61,000 due to changes in party registrations and increased early and absentee voting by Republicans who had cast Election Day ballots in 2012.

On Sunday, in-person early voting was opened in just major urban counties, which benefitted Democrats. About 258,000 people voted in person Sunday, 24 percent of whom were African-American, 26 percent Hispanic and 41 percent white.

Compared to 2012, Hispanics have far exceeded their share of the early vote. But they’ve only cast about 15 percent of the ballots while they make up 16 percent of the active voter rolls.

Blacks have picked up the pace in early voting in recent days and have cast about 13 percent of the ballots while they’re about 13.4 percent of the rolls.

In looking at all the numbers, Brown said it is no surprise the race is this tight.

“Florida might not be an exact demographic representation of the country, but it's close,” Brown said. “Florida has a heckuva track record of producing nailbiters.”

