Tuesday's Wisconsin Senate special election could be bellwether for 2018 legislative races

MADISON - Tuesday's election in a northwestern Wisconsin Senate race could yield clues about whether Republicans are keeping their hold on state government or facing a wave that could break their grip this November.

GOP groups have been aggressive in spending money — and confident in predicting victory — in the Republican-leaning 10th Senate District. Democrats have kept quieter about their own hopes, trying to control expectations in a seat where their party has been disappointed before.

But with President Donald Trump's state approval rating relatively low, both sides are watching the race between state Rep. Adam Jarchow (R-Balsam Lake) and Democrat Patty Schachtner, the chief medical examiner for St. Croix County.

In a first for Americans for Prosperity — the group backed by the conservative billionaire Koch brothers — the Wisconsin chapter is paying for ads and mailings expressly backing a candidate, Jarchow. Meanwhile, Democratic groups like Greater Wisconsin Committee are also spending, but at a lower level.

“The eyes of the nation will be on western Wisconsin as voters go to the polls in the first special election of 2018," said Eric Bott, the state leader for Americans for Prosperity.

No single race or poll can provide a complete picture of a fall election that is still 10 months away. But the race could yield clues — and consequences.

To have even an outside chance of winning back the state Senate under the current districts, Democrats would need to win the 10th District race. A win there for Republicans would give their party a 19-13 advantage in the Senate with one GOP-leaning district left vacant after Sen. Frank Lasee (R-De Pere) left to take a job in Gov. Scott Walker's administration.

The 10th District clearly leans Republican — Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 even though he lost the presidential race in Wisconsin to Barack Obama. Trump crushed Hillary Clinton in the 10th District in the 2016 presidential election and John McCain almost won the district in 2008, despite Obama's easy statewide victory.

But the seat is open, with former Sen. Sheila Harsdorf (R-River Falls) leaving to take a job in the Walker administration. And Democrats scored victories in special elections last year in other states such as Alabama, Virginia and Oklahoma.

Surveys last summer and fall by the Marquette University Law School and the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling both put a roughly 40% Trump approval rating in Wisconsin, though Marquette found his rating was higher in the western part of the state.

The Public Policy poll gave a generic Democratic candidate a 44% to 41% advantage over a generic Republican — a result that suggests Democrats might have a shot at the 10th District but are far from a shoo-in.

Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling (D-La Crosse) said she sees nationwide a "momentum and an energy" for Democrats and is watching to see whether that shows up in northwest Wisconsin.

"It really is the canary in the coal mine as we look to the 2018 elections," Shilling said.

This isn't the first time Jarchow has faced off against a member of the Schachtner family. Jarchow easily beat Travis Schachtner, Patty Schachtner's son, to win his Assembly seat in 2014.

Jarchow, an attorney, has pushed bills to strengthen the rights of property owners over government regulations and has sometimes voted against his party, opposing Gov. Scott Walker's budget last year and the multibillion-dollar deal to bring a Foxconn Technology Group factory to Racine County.

A former emergency medical technician who a decade ago appeared on the show "Wife Swap," Schachtner serves on the board of the Somerset School District and has served on the board of the Town of Star Prairie.

Both Schachtner and Jarchow have been members of the Wisconsin Bear Hunters Association.

Bott, the Americans for Prosperity head, said his group has spent $50,000 so far on radio and internet ads as well as mailings in the race and plans to spend up to another $50,000.

The Wisconsin Alliance for Reform and Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce combined to spend about $80,000 on ads in the race, according to the liberal group One Wisconsin Now. Other conservative groups active in the race include the Jobs First Coalition founded by former Assembly Speaker Scott Jensen and the Republican State Leadership Committee, which supports GOP candidates in statehouse races around the country.

As a sitting lawmaker Jarchow raised money all year and his campaign brought in $271,000 in 2017 — including a $50,000 loan he made to his committee — and has $81,000 in cash, according to a state filing. In her short time available to fund raise during the special election, Schachtner brought in $183,000 and has $53,000 in cash.

In addition, the liberal group Greater Wisconsin spent $30,000 on digital ads. A group known as Post Cards to Voters has also been active in the race, harnessing the power of the internet to help Democratic volunteers in other parts of the country to send handwritten postcards to voters in Wisconsin.

Jenni Dye, executive director of the State Senate Democratic Committee, said that a strong showing in the district after Trump's crushing win there in 2016 would be good news for her party.

"That's going to be a sign that 2018 is headed in a good direction for Democrats," she said.

Mark Morgan, executive director of the state GOP, disagreed, saying Democrats are already trying to cover for a potential loss in the race.

"If they are unable to convert a competitive race into a win ... I don't think it bodes well for them," Morgan said.