At first glance there’s not much new in this week’s poll; the Conservatives have a slight lead but this is likely more blip than trend. There are, however, four really interesting and important stories evolving under this deceptively calm surface.

First, the new normal — a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals — is almost exclusively a product of the terror and security file. The more daunting issues of a stagnant economy and regime fatigue are lurking in temporary abeyance.

Second, the profound change in the polling landscape since late summer is due largely to one major shift in the demographic constituency for the Conservatives. In short, if you’re older and less educated, you’re really troubled by the messages on terror and security emanating from the Prime Minister’s Office.

Third, the supposed public consensus around Bill C-51 is an illusion. On the more accessible question of whether police and security services should have more powers, our tracking shows a dead split. This is definitely up as a consequence of recent events — but the rise is almost exclusively to be found in the groups noted above and among Conservative supporters. No one else is much onside and there are serious questions about the shelf-life of this support.

Fourth, the Green Party is showing real and unexpected strength compared to the last election. They could become a significant force if the current deadlock continues and they manage to up their game just slightly. A major brake on their prospects has been tepid turnout — due to a sense that a vote for a Green candidate is largely symbolic, with little chance of electing an MP. As their supporters’ voting intentions firm, however, the party’s prospects rise. Indeed, if the race continues to narrow, this election could be a very important moment for the Green Party.

The regional races are tight outside of Atlantic Canada and Alberta, which remain comfortable and stable havens for Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper, respectively. Quebec is a very close four-way race, while Ontario and Manitoba are deadlocked. The Conservative hold on Saskatchewan appears to be relaxing and British Columbia is seeing a fascinating four-way race with a muscular Green Party poised to win multiple seats.

The demographics show the Conservatives reassembling the base of older, less educated and male voters that was their key to success in 2011. These groups bear closer examination.

In most parts of our society and economy, the values and preferences of older and less educated citizens aren’t much in demand. We rarely see them in advertising or at gala openings and they don’t trend on social media. But they’re certainly having a profound impact on our democracy and national direction. Call it the revenge of the neglected — not a conscious act, of course, but rather the effect of a political climate where their values and beliefs are actually driving the national agenda.

Consider the following chart, which compares how the current voting landscape would look with various demographics included and excluded:

No question, terrorism is the sorting mechanism and animator of the new normal seen in today’s polls. The Conservatives’ constant hammering on the security theme has brought them clear returns, particularly with the older and less educated voters who have moved en masse to their camp. The migration of many Quebec voters to the Conservatives has been driven not so much by security fears as by the focus on jihadists and the topic’s links to secularism and xenophobia. Let’s take a deeper look at how this evolved, with a view to understanding where it may go.

What this tracking suggests is that security concerns are definitely alive — but they’re not inflamed to anywhere near the levels we saw following the 9/11 attacks. In fact, even with this (probably temporary) jolt on the security front, the overall tilt on security versus civil liberties still clearly favours civil liberties.

Furthermore, all previous patterns show that any disruptions in response to a security incident (in this case, the Parliament Hill shooting and the Paris attacks) are always followed by a reduction in support for placing security over civil liberties as time goes on. We expect that this situation will be no different and, while it’s not statistically significant, we’ve already seen a modest swing back to the civil liberties side.

Finally, it’s worth noting that this issue is the subject of a deep divide along partisan lines. While we did not ask specifically about Bill C-51, the question on the trade-off of additional powers for police and intelligence agencies serves as a useful proxy. Support is strongly focused in some very specific polling segments (e.g., older and less educated Canadians) and we can find no evidence to support the idea that there is a massive wave of public support for such a bill. In fact, outside of the Conservative base, clear majorities oppose new police powers. We have a direct test of support for Bill C-51 in field right now, and the preliminary results suggest a public far more divided than earlier polling on this bill suggests.

Should the Liberals and NDP be deeply worried? It’s not entirely clear that Canadians with high school-level educations vote in large numbers, or that their feelings on the terror file are deeply entrenched.

Seniors, on the other hand, are an important demographic that no party can afford to ignore. This is a large segment of the electorate and its members tend to vote in great numbers — and they’ve been swinging from the Liberals to the Conservative in large numbers. The senior vote is also quite accessible for ‘progressive’ parties — particularly for the Liberals, who had a ten-point lead in this demographic not that long ago. Today’s seniors are better educated and more progressive in their values than any seniors’ cohort in Canada’s history.

Here’s what should be worrying the Liberals and New Democrats: the stable — and possibly growing — advantage Mr. Harper enjoys on the values front. While it’s probable that this advantage is being driven by temporary concerns over security and likely will erode as economic and social concerns move to the fore, values help drive emotions — and emotions win elections.

It will be interesting to see in the coming months whether the opposition parties make headway on the values front, which will be critical to the outcome of the next election.

Frank Graves is founder and president of EKOS Polling.

Methodology:

This study was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline-only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are February 25 – March 3, 2015. A random sample of 3,241 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.