Pelissero: Is Tom Brady just now entering the prime of career?

Tom Pelissero | USA TODAY Sports

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Here's an unsettling thought for anyone waiting for the New England Patriots’ reign to end: What if Tom Brady’s best football is ahead of him?

His numbers over his last 16 games (including playoffs) — 66.8% passing for 4,701 yards and 44 touchdowns with 11 interceptions and a 104.4 passer rating — stack up well against any of his 15 seasons as a starter, save perhaps his record-breaking 2007 campaign.

Brady, 38, is past his physical peak. But he was never winning with athletic ability anyway. He has avoided major injuries since blowing out a knee seven years ago. He plays in an offense that emphasizes a short passing game, limiting wear and tear on his arm. And his knowledge of how to read and manipulate defenses only increases with time.

“I felt the same way when I got later into my career,” Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon told USA TODAY Sports on Thursday. “I had some of my better years when I was 38, 39, 40 years old, because I just felt so in tune with what I was doing.”

Moon made a Pro Bowl at age 41, in his first season with the Seattle Seahawks. Brett Favre was on his third team in three years when he turned 40 during an excellent 2009 campaign with the Minnesota Vikings. Brady has been evolving with one offense since he entered the NFL in 2000.

His ongoing growth has taken place under one of football’s greatest defensive minds, Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who provides a thorough education on opposing coordinators’ rules and tendencies — continuously refining a quarterback without a weakness in terms of knowing how to deliver the ball quickly and accurately to any area of the field.

“The 10% physically (Brady) was better back then, he’s 35% better mentally,” former NFL quarterback Jeff Christensen said. “So he’s a better all-around player today. He’s just brilliant.”

Christensen has taught Brady’s mechanics to young players — including Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo — for more than a decade. It starts with concise footwork, which gives Brady an extra split-second to see the play develop. Brady rarely misses a checkdown, and the Patriots control the middle of the field with players he can throw into position to run after the catch.

“He’s very good at knowing what he wants to do with the ball pre-snap,” said linebacker Dan Skuta of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who visit the Patriots on Sunday. “So we’ve got to try to get into his brain a little bit and figure out what he’s thinking and do our best to stop it.”

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills already have failed this season as Brady racked up 754 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions through two games.

Asked on a conference call with Jacksonville reporters Wednesday if he’ll play 10 more years, Brady said, “That might be a little bit of a reach at this point. But, hopefully, it's a lot more than what people would typically predict.”

The only real concern, Moon said, is gameplans that have Brady throwing 59 passes as he did against the Bills — i.e., 59 chances for bad luck to strike and yield an injury, however minor — could be tougher to shake than in his younger days.

“He takes very, very good care of himself,” Moon said. “He prepares as well as anybody in the league. He has great command of that offense, and he knows where everybody’s going to be. So you combine all those things together with good health, I think he can keep playing for another two or three years at this level.”

SAINTS MARCHING OUT

If not for the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints would have an easy claim to most disappointing team so far — and they’ll probably have the toughest time turning things around.

The scouting report on the Saints after losses to the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is brutal: no pass rush, no run defense, an offense that’s out of sync and presents only one matchup threat (receiver Brandin Cooks) now that Jimmy Graham’s gone and Marques Colston is in decline.

The dearth of weapons isn’t helping 36-year-old quarterback Drew Brees, who didn’t look like himself against Tampa Bay before injuring his throwing shoulder. (Coach Sean Payton isn't saying if Brees will play Sunday against the Carolina Panthers.) At this point, competing even in the wide-open NFC South looks far-fetched.

It has been a remarkable fall for a team and a Payton-led offense that won a Super Bowl after the 2009 season and — save for the 2012 season Payton was suspended over Bountygate — continued to look like a contender through most of 2013.

The Saints were 9-2 when they traveled to Seattle for a nationally televised clash of NFC front-runners on Dec. 2, 2013. The surging Seahawks ran them off the field by halftime in a 34-7 rout that set the stage for Seattle’s title run. The Saints’ record from that night forward: 10-15.

BACK TO BATTLE

Seahawks free safety Earl Thomas gave a curious answer Sunday night when asked why people should believe sidekick Kam Chancellor’s absence isn’t the reason for Seattle’s 0-2 start.

“I can’t tell you that,” Thomas told USA TODAY Sports after the Seahawks’ 27-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers. “The only thing I can tell you is he’s not here. He’s not battling with us. You’ve got guys out there battling their butt off, and he’s not here.”

Thomas was right on this: The Seahawks will never know whether Chancellor’s holdout, which ended Wednesday, cost them a road win or two against the St. Louis Rams and Packers, making the path to a third straight Super Bowl that much steeper. At minimum, his absence didn’t help.

Nobody seems to have a good explanation for why Chancellor returned now — after racking up fines and lost wages in the neighborhood of $2 million — and without the changes he’d been demanding to his contract (which is highly unlikely to change anytime soon).

“It was more just watching my teammates playing in those games,” Chancellor told reporters, “and hearing the texts that they send me all the time and talking to them daily.”

If any of those talks sounded like what Thomas said, that alone could’ve mounted pressure.

INSIDE RUNS

— One striking development in the Eagles’ Week 2 flop: Nobody was getting open. Coach Chip Kelly’s passing scheme is predicated on a lot of crossing routes and rubs, executed at a high tempo. Sam Bradford isn’t the most accurate quarterback, so creating space is paramount.

— Graham was inline for a majority of his 50 snaps against the Packers and never was targeted from a detached position. That includes two snaps on which he was isolated wide against a safety and Seattle stuck with a run play. Puzzling.

— Gus Bradley’s plan to turn around the Jaguars is all about process, not outcome. So what was the coach’s message after the team’s first September win since 2012? “He said it right after the game: We’re going to treat success just as a loss,” Skuta told USA TODAY Sports. In other words, keep working. The Jags’ next three are on the road.

— With all-pro Dez Bryant (foot) out indefinitely, new Dallas Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden’s most talented receiver is Terrance Williams, who faces a tough matchup Sunday. Atlanta Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant is one of the game’s underrated cover men.

— Don’t underestimate the impact of tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins' shoulder injury in terms of its impact on rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. They were establishing a connection at a time when wideout Mike Evans continues to fight a hamstring issue.

TOM'S TOP 10

(Last week’s ranking in parentheses)

1. Green Bay Packers (1): Can anyone slow Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field?

2. New England Patriots (2): With Dion Lewis so productive, how does LeGarrette Blount fit in?

3. Seattle Seahawks (3): Finally at full strength, 5-3 or 6-2 at the bye wouldn’t surprise.

4. Denver Broncos (4): Averaging 2.9 yards a carry neuters Gary Kubiak’s play-action game.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (9): The No. 1-ranked offense gets all-pro RB Le’Veon Bell back. Scary.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (NR): John Harbaugh’s not off-base. The roster remains loaded.

7. Arizona Cardinals (NR): They’ve won 15 of the last 17 games QB Carson Palmer started.

8. St. Louis Rams (7): Consistency is elusive, but no one wants to face that front in St. Louis.

9. Baltimore Ravens (5): Home opener against Cincy is as close as any to must-win in Week 3.

10. Dallas Cowboys (NR): No Dez. No Romo. But the D is rolling, with reinforcements coming.

Dropped out: Philadelphia Eagles (6), Indianapolis Colts (8), San Diego Chargers (10).

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Follow Tom Pelissero on Twitter @TomPelissero

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