TL;DR it’s a slow time for the markets, but that means…

We’ve seen it before, recently and more than once. It seems to be bitcoin’s signature right now. Days of boredom, with prices doing little of interest. Then BOOM! A big move, up or down, immediately followed by a frenzy of speculation that the bear market is finally over or else due another leg down.

Right now, bitcoin is tracking slowly and quietly downwards in what looks a lot like a bull flag. The pattern has continued for several days now after the monster spike higher, with price gently falling, staying below the 50 moving average on the one-day chart. Should this break up – and that’s quite possible – then we’d want to see at least $4,000 before we regain some optimism.

What we need to remember here is that we have not yet seen a higher high in this cycle. Right now, the trend is unclear: after 14 months of the bear, most indicators are still pointing downwards. We’re about to see a 50/100 cross on the weekly moving average, we’re trading below all of the major daily MAs and bumping along the 200 weekly MA. One positive-looking pattern doesn’t change all that – and bull flags don’t have to break upwards. In short, we’re waiting to see how this situation develops before we get our hopes up.

Meanwhile, the fundamentals continue to improve. Jack Dorsey has been making waves after his public endorsement of the Lightning Network by playing the torch game on Twitter. He’s now going all in, suggesting that LN could be used within the Square app.

Lastly, on a more pessimistic note, QuadrigaCX – the exchange that collapsed when its CEO (apparently) died, taking with him the keys to its cold storage – has lost more funds. Someone sent 103 BTC (almost $400,000) to the CEO’s cold wallet. Because he’s still (apparently) dead, they’re gone too.

Oops.

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