The paper has a bad record of picking the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses. It has endorsed Democratic presidential candidates in 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016, and the only time it backed the winner (who came in first by just 0.3 points) was 2016.

But Nate Silver notes that the paper’s endorsement historically “helps the endorsee by 3 points, which matters in a race where the top 4 candidates are separated by ~5 points.”


So maybe the Register’s endorsement of Warren will help some undecided “wine-track” voters settle on her instead of Buttigieg and keep Warren above the 15 percent threshold necessary to win delegates in Iowa.

And the Biden campaign must be breathing a sigh of relief that the Register did not endorse Amy Klobuchar, who is still polling below 15 percent. According to the new Siena/New York Times poll, more than half of Klobuchar’s supporters would pick Biden as their second choice, while only 18 percent would pick Warren as their second choice.