Poll: Trump leads the GOP field but falters against Clinton

Susan Page and Erin Raftery | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption Trump's up in new poll A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows Donald Trump taking the lead over the rest of the Republican field in the presidential race, but he's still got a long way to go to catch up with leading Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump has surged to the top of a crowded Republican presidential field, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, but the brash billionaire is also the weakest competitor among the top seven GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

In the nationwide survey, Trump leads at 17% and former Florida governor Jeb Bush is second at 14%, the only competitors who reach double digits. Trump's edge, which is within the poll's margin of error, is one more sign that his ​harsh rhetoric about immigration and toward his rivals has struck a chord with some voters.

"He's got some backbone," Steve Fusaro, 59, of San Clemente, Calif., who was among those polled, said approvingly in a follow-up interview. "We need a businessman."

But Buxton McGuckin, 19, of Columbia, S.C., who supports Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, expresses alarm at the potential repercussions of Trump's words. "I know he's a conservative and Republican but I mean ... the (stuff) that comes out of his mouth," the audio engineer says.

Trump has gained 6 percentage points since the USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll taken in June; Bush's support has stayed steady.

The survey of 1,000 adults, taken by landline and cellphone Thursday through Sunday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample of 349 likely Republican primary and caucus voters has an error margin of +/-5.25 points.

Trump's strengths and his weaknesses are on display.

While he leads the GOP field, he fares the worst of seven hopefuls in hypothetical head-to-heads against former secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic nominee. Bush, the strongest candidate against Clinton, lags by four points nationwide, 46%-42%. Trump trails by 17 points, 51%-34%.

That's a wider margin than Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (down 6 points), former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (8 points), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (9 points), Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (10 points) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (13 points).

Nearly half of all those surveyed, 48%, say Trump's comments about illegal immigrants, including characterizing Mexicans as rapists and drug dealers, matter a lot to their vote. Just 15% say the comments make them more likely to support him; 48% say they make them less likely.

"We've seen Donald Trump make it to the top, but the question is can he stay on top," says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "In 2012, Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain led the GOP primary field briefly but only to fade."

When the first and second choices of Republicans are combined — an indication of how things might sort out when the field eventually gets smaller — Trump does a bit less well. Bush is at 14% and Trump at 13%. Rubio and Walker are supported by 10%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 6% and Carson by 5%.

"I haven't decided which of the several thousand candidates we have who I'm supporting," jokes William Turville, 68, of Reedville, Va. At this point, he says he could see himself backing Bush, Rubio or Walker.

"Bush has some good ideas, (but) I think his problem is he's painted with the Bush last name," Turville says. Some voters "were not happy with his older brother, (and) there's still stigma from his father."

"I think we've had enough Bushes in there," says Charlene Birdwell, 70, of Texarkana, Texas.

Even Stacey Richardson, 43, of Gretna, Neb., calls Bush her first choice but volunteers Trump's name as well. "I like the way he tells the truth," she says.

Trump is the best-known of the Republican contenders. Just 2% of those surveyed have never heard of him, compared with 27% who have never heard of Walker and 16% who haven't heard of Rubio. But Trump also is viewed the most negatively of all.

In the poll, 61% have an unfavorable impression of him and 23% a favorable one, a net-negative rating of 38 points. Bush's favorable-unfavorable rating is 35%-42%.