

Scott Lucas

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This isn't a pure performance or prospect list. I take every player's stats, prospect status, usage, level, age and my personal observations, and I arrange the players as I see fit.WAR equals Wins Above Replacement. As I mentioned in the hitters column, WAR doesn’t fly conceptually at the minor league level -- an organization could easily stack a lower-level club with "freely available" ringers if desired -- but the math still works. FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching, which assumes league-average hits allowed on balls in play and reconstructs ERA solely on rates of homers, walks and strikeouts.Age 21.9High-A and AA135.0 IP, 2.73 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 0.7% HR, 9% BB+HBP, 24% SO3.4 WARIn Surprise last March, I saw the 2011 14th rounder at his worst following two decent but nondescript seasons in Hickory. He allowed two homers and four other solid hits in two-thirds of an inning. I've learned not to overemphasize a single outing, but my expectations of him in 2014 were guarded.Purely in terms of performance, Faulkner was Texas's best minor league pitcher in 2014. While not a top ten prospect like some of his rotation mates in Frisco, he did raise his status from "someone I know about" to "someone you need to know about." Faulkner attacks with a 90-95 MPH fastball that usually runs in on righties, a hard curve and mid-80s change. He didn't allow a homer until his 21st and final start in Myrtle Beach. In San Antonio last August, he offered the most impressive fastball command of anybody I saw all season. I've learned not to overemphasize a single outing, but my expectations of him in 2015 are hopeful.Next April: AA.Age 22.6High-A and AA138.7 IP, 2.66 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 1.0% HR, 9% BB+HBP, 19% SO3.0 WARGonzalez runs 89-94 with his three-way fastball: one with as much armside tail as you'll ever see, one a cutter, the last a sinker. He also throws a slider, change and very occasional curve. Gonzalez is refining his command, understandable for someone with so much movement on his fastball(s). He doesn't appear to be the type who'll post lofty strikeout totals, but he induces plenty of weak contact. Chi Chi allowed only 14 extra-base hits in 15 AA games.Next April: AAA, although a few additional weeks in AA wouldn't shock me and shouldn’t disappoint you. The Rangers could promote Gonzalez, Alec Asher and Jerad Eickhoff to Round Rock (Frisco rotation mates Faulkner and Jake Thompson will have to wait a bit), but finding room for all three on Opening Day may not be possible. Gonzalez could reach Arlington next year, perhaps earlier than September, though the parent club's situation will dictate his debut as much as his own performance.Age 22.9AA154.0 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 2.9% HR, 6% BB+HBP, 19% SO2.0 WARAsher is unfazed by the Texas League's reputation of having a tiny strike zone, decreasing his walk rate to a miniscule 5% in his AA debut. When the career of a hitter known more for his eye than his bat stalls, blame pitchers like Asher who force the patient hitter out of his comfort zone. Asher throws a profiles as a power pitcher with his large frame, delivery and durability, but he's no mere thrower, offering a change, curve and slider in addition to his low-to-mid-90s fastball. His strikeout rate dropped in AA, and the two outings I saw featured an enormous number of foul balls. In shorter bursts, he can pump steady 94-96 heat.Next April: AAA. Like Gonzalez, he's walking up to the door, if not quite knocking on it.Age 24.1AA154.3 IP, 4.08 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 2.7% HR, 9% BB+HBP, 23% SO1.7 WAREickhoff is big and durable, throwing more innings as a minor leaguer than any Texas prospect during 2013-2014. On the other hand, Eickhoff sometimes labors in later innings, yielding a 5.60 ERA and .350 OBP from the 6th onwards compared to 3.76 and .286 in the first five innings. Eickhoff's fastball velocity has varied from 90 to 98, typically in the lower-middle area. Like Asher, he also throws a curve, slider and change, with the curve rating best. Eickhoff doesn't throw as many strikes as Asher but misses more bats.Next April: AA or AAAAge 20.5Low-A (and rookie ball on rehab)79.3 IP, 2.72 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.5% HR, 9% BB+HBP, 26% SO2.0 WARSmaller than everyone on this list save Jose Leclerc, Lopez is a control lefty signed out of Venezuela in 2010. His fastball has improved from the mid-upper 80s to 89-91 over the years. He'll never be a flamethrower but has always shown good feel for his curve, and more recently, his changeup. A forearm strain limited him to 73 innings in Hickory. Despite his size, Lopez has maintained a high strikeout rate throughout his career. I'm hopeful that the missed bats and his ability to mix three pitches for strikes will mitigate the effects of the California League.Next April: High-AAge 23AA and AAA123.3 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 2.6% HR, 11% BB+HBP, 24% SO0.9 WARI saw four of Jackson's five home starts in AAA, and let me tell you, he was pretty darn bad. Jackson had a "wild in the zone" inconsistency (not uncommon among power pitchers -- think Tanner Scheppers) that resulted in strikeouts and laser-beamed liners in equal proportion. Though to my eyes he looked like he was trying too hard and seemed off-kilter mechanically toward the end of 2014, please do not equate his situation to Cody Buckel (who is pitching in Australia this fall, incidentally). Oddly, Jackson generated 23 popups in Frisco versus just three in Round Rock. Since popups are equivalent to strikeouts in terms of squelching offense, their absence in AAA greatly affected his success.Earlier in Frisco, he was throwing the best ball of his career, and that's why he's on this list. Texas absolutely will not omit him from the 40-man roster, and I'm not worried about him. Even at his worst, I "starred" many of his pitches while watching at the Dell Diamond.Next April: AAA.Age 22.5Low-A125.0 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.6% HR, 7% BB+HBP, 23% SO2.6 WARConfession: I know less about Tyler Smith than anybody on this list. I've never taken a picture of him, and I've only seen him pitch in person briefly. All that said, on a solid Hickory staff, Smith led the team in innings and strikeouts by healthy margins and ranked second in the league in the latter category. Nathaniel Stoltz of Fangraphs.com, who has seen Smith a couple of times, described him as having an 88-91 fastball, 80ish change, high-70s slider and mid-70s curve. Having survived pitcher-unfriendly Hickory, Smith will tackle an even tougher assignment in High Desert next year.Next April: High-AAge 25.3AA and AAA51.7 IP, 0.52 ERA, 1.91 FIP, 0.0% HR, 12% BB+HBP, 36% SO2.2 WARPitchers are throwing harder than ever, so by current relief standards, Klein's repertoire borders on ordinary: a 90-93 FB with decent but unexceptional movement and a mid-80s slider. Klein utilizes his 6'7" frame and delivery to unleash pitches that seem to reach the plate far more quickly than the velocity suggests. Klein fanned more than one of every three opponents, 15% of his pitches resulted in swinging strikes, and he didn't allow a single extra-base hit to 196 batters. Those results and fewer control lapses raised him from "intriguing guy" to likely 40-man addition to Major Leaguer (with some help from Texas's decimated roster) in the span of a few months. Klein lost his extra-base-hit streak in the Majors, surrendering a homer to his first opponent, but he maintained his 15% swing-and-miss rate.Next April: AAA or MLBAge 21.3High-A and AA49.0 IP, 2.02 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 0.5% HR, 16% BB+HBP, 32% SO1.4 WARKela sits upper 90s and touches 100. That's a decent writeup by itself, but let's go on. In addition to missing bats (32% strikeout rate, 14% swinging strike rate), Kela doesn't even allow many fly balls and has surrendered only two homers in 99.1 professional innings. Forgive me for calling Kela's power curve a slider when I watched him in San Antonio. The two I saw were 84-85 with late movement. At its best, it's a hammer, not just a means of preventing hitters from reading dead red all the time. Kela occasionally struggles mightily with his control.Next April: AAA, I hope.Age 21.7Low-A and High-A56.3 IP, 1.92 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 0.9% HR, 10% BB+HBP, 28% SO1.6 WARTexas had four de los Santoses (Abel, Leonel, Miguel, Ovispo) a few years ago, Abel being the least renowned among them. Now, Leonel and Ovispo are out of baseball, and Miguel was just released by the Brewers. Seemingly nervous upon promotion to Myrtle Beach, de los Santos walked seven of his first 30 high-A batters compared to just 11 of 200 during the rest of the season. After settling down, he threw effectively in high-leverage situations, only once appearing before the 8th. While not a hard thrower, he commands and mixes his 90-91 fastball, slow curve and change well. De los Santos will be Rule-5 eligible this fall if unprotected, a topic I will revisit in the near future.Next April: AAAge 23.9High-A and AA51.7 IP, 1.57 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 0.5% HR, 16% BB+HBP, 27% SO1.3 WAR(I only have 2013 video, and he throws differently now. Sorry.)Unpolished despite three years of college experience because he mostly manned the outfield, Lamb has auditioned several deliveries during his development process. Shortly into the season, Lamb began hitting 97 MPH with improved control, and suddenly Texas had a lefty relief prospect instead of a question mark. I'd love to commend someone in the organization for his improvement, but the best explanation I've heard is that he simply rolled out of bed one morning with several ticks on his heater. Promoted to AA, his pitches per appearance ballooned, a combination of worse control and advanced hitters daring him to throw strikes.Next April: AA, unless Texas leaves him off the 40 and he's claimed and survives big-league camp. Probably AA.Age 20.7High-A57.3 IP, 3.30 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 3.3% HR, 16% BB+HBP, 33% SO0.6 WARLeclerc shared the late innings with de los Santos and offers the same three-pitch assortment. At present, he's the less reliable of the two, sometimes struggling badly with his control and the long ball. His homer rate was twice the league average. Conversely, Leclerc possesses a true late-inning repertoire: a fastball sitting in the mid-90s and reaching 98, a sometimes mesmerizing curve and developing change. Baseball America's Carolina League Top 20 Prospects suggested the #19 Leclerc could reach Arlington next year, which feels optimistic to me, but in any case he's a legitimate prospect.Next April: AAAge 22.5High-A, AA and AAA92.0 IP, 1.66 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 0.8% HR, 4% BB+HBP, 23% SO3.0 WARClaudio relieved in 18 of 27 appearances but logged exactly half of his innings as a starter and made several lengthy relief appearances. Outside of a few glacial curves from Joakim Soria and the like, Claudio's 68-70 MPH change is the slowest pitch in the Majors. It runs a good 15 MPH under his fastball with an identical delivery, resulting in some hilarious swings. He's got zero projection and won't have a long leash in the Majors.Next April: In a crowded field for one of Texas's last one or two bullpen spots. Being left-handed helps.Age 24.2AAA74.7 IP, 4.10 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 2.8% HR, 8% BB+HBP, 29% SO1.4 WARYou learned little about Bonilla's ascent to MLB from me, for which I blame my infant daughter. I just didn't see him much this season. When I did, he usually looked like the guy I saw frequently in 2013: great changeup, speedy but poorly commanded fastball, dreadful slider. I do have video of a couple of better-than-usual sliders, but in writing about him I relied too heavily on my voluminous but increasingly dated viewings from the previous season. Evidently, he saved his best for when I was absent.Next April: Probably AAA.