India’s economic growth is likely to have gained momentum in the quarter ended September with various forecasts pegging the growth at 6.3 per cent, rebounding from a three-year low of 5.7 per cent growth in the previous quarter.Most independent economists expect the gross value added, or GVA, to have grown 6.3-6.5 per cent in the July-September quarter.GVA is the total value of goods and services produced in the economy after deducting the cost of inputs and raw materials used for them.If gross domestic product (GDP) measures economic output from consumers’ side, GVA provides a picture from the producers’ side. Net taxes on products are added to GVA to arrive at GDP where net taxes are taxes on products less subsidies on products. Most analysts now prefer to focus on GVA given the uncertainty in indirect taxes. GVA had grown 5.6 per cent and GDP rose 5.7 per cent in the first quarter.India Ratings and Research has forecast GVA to grow 6.4 per cent and gross domestic product growth at 6.5 per cent in the second quarter ended September. “A major change in GVA is expected from industry with all three elements of manufacturing, mining and electricity likely to pick up in the second quarter,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings.The expected revival in economic activity is attributed to a turnaround in industrial growth and improved demand. Industrial output as measured by the index of industrial production (IIP) averaged 3.1 per cent in the September quarter against 1.9 per cent in the first quarter of this fiscal. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release the growth numbers on November 30.The decline in first quarter growth was largely due to disruption caused by the goods and services tax (GST) and the lingering impact of demonetisation. The State Bank of India in a report said GDP growth in the second quarter is likely to trend higher and might be in the lower end of 6-6.5 per cent band with an upward bias as most lead indicators such as foreign tourist arrivals, international passenger and air freight traffic, railway traffic and telephone subscribers have showed an uptick in recent months. Passenger vehicle sales in India had grown 11.32 per cent in September.Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings, said trade, transport and government sectors, along with a reversal in manufacturing growth will boost GVA in the September quarter. Pant of India Ratings said consumption expenditure could rebound even though government expenditure is likely to remain stagnant.Japanese financial services firm Nomura said a recovery is underway largely because of improved consumption and investment indicators.Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ratings agency ICRA, said, “Corporate results suggest a sequential recovery in earnings growth... This has been led by factors such as rising commodity prices, which helped boost the realisations in some sectors such as metals.”Investment and agriculture are areas where economists don’t have an optimistic projection. “Uncertainty in GDP is likely to creep in on account of indirect taxes because of GST and devolution to states,” said Sabnavis of CARE. “However, the impact of good harvest will be seen in the third quarter.”