By Noah Lieberman

Ballotcraft is a fantasy politics game (think fantasy football, but for politics). Play against your friends and win by best predicting what’s going to happen in upcoming elections. Sign up and play here: www.ballotcraft.com.

With six days left before the first Democratic Presidential Debate, trading is starting to heat up on Ballotcraft. And while you’re going to have to be active on Tuesday night to win your league, implementing a strategy now might be enough to get a leg up on the other traders. So with that in mind, here are the big trends we’re seeing on the market and how you can use them to get ahead.

Clinton Competes, But Sanders Pulls Ahead

For much of the past week, the story on Ballotcraft has been pretty much the same. While the lesser-known Democrats languished in the measly single digits, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders duked it out for the top spot. Each candidate took a few turns on top, with Bernie holding the lead for the majority of the past week, until Monday night, when Bernie began pulling away and pulling away fast.

Since 8:00 PM Monday Bernie has increased his lead from just over 10 points (leading Clinton 49.5 to 38.8) to 43 (he leads 68.1 to 25.1 at the time of writing for this article). And frankly, I don’t see this trend as being too unreasonable. Bernie draws in bigger crowds than candidates ever have before, purely on his ideas and skill as an orator. Hillary on the other hand has felt wooden and manufactured for most of this campaign, and lost the 2008 race to Obama because she lacked his ability to fire up a crowd. I’m not saying Clinton only has a one in four chance of winning the debate, but I think Bernie is rightfully out in front. Don’t hesitate on Sanders because of the high price, because it looks as though it may only get higher.

Second-Tier Candidates Fail To Make Waves

Before we go back to the Clinton-Sanders competition that will likely take up most of the debate, let’s take a quick look at the other three candidates who will grace the stage on Tuesday. Martin O’Malley was the Governor of Maryland, and his odds currently sit at 2.5%. Jim Webb is a former Virginian Senator, whose odds are at 2.3%. And Lincoln Chafee is the former Governor of Rhode Island, whose odds are hovering around 2.2%. If you’re sensing a trend, you’re not alone. Traders have largely stayed away from these candidates, and not without good reason. They’re all polling abysmally (O’Malley leads the bunch with a resounding 1.0% on the Huffington Post’s Pollster), have done nothing to generate media attention in the last 4 months, and are all incredibly bland, boring speakers, especially compared with the energetic and impassioned Sanders.

The one thing I would keep in mind with these three is that the question asked of our focus group is which candidate “best improved their chances” of winning the nomination based on the debate. Since these guys all have a zero percent chance of winning at the moment, it may not take much for them to improve their odds. Still, I highly doubt any of them will come up with a good enough line to bump their price even momentarily during the debate, so stay away unless you’re feeling the need to be risky.

McCarthy’s Comments Fueled Clinton Rise

Finally, let’s jump back to our frontrunners and consider what events could fuel a Clinton resurgence on the site. For that, we’re going to have to look back to the past week, and see what kept Clinton in the hunt up until Tuesday. Clinton’s best performance of the past week and a half came between Tuesday and Friday, when, coincidentally, the news was focused on comments made by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. These comments supported a long-held Democratic belief that the House Select Committee on Benghazi was just a way to defame Hillary Clinton, and temporarily had the media focusing on the “Hillary vs. the GOP” storyline which has dominated much of the past two years.

Now it’s probably not enough evidence to conclusively say Hillary’s five point rise over this time was due to the renewed focus on her general election prospects, but I think that may be a fair assumption. Her price rose without Sanders’ going down, indicating the rise was motivated entirely by faith in her chances, rather than lack of faith in his. If talk on the Sunday shows this week, and certainly if talk in the debate, turns to the general election, expect Hillary to look a bit more competitive on the site.

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Noah Lieberman is the founder of election forecasting website PollingLab. Click here to see more of his analysis of the 2016 election.