HAWTHORN moved into the top four on Friday night with a nine-point win over the top-of- the-table Kangaroos.

Many considered the Hawks lucky to scrape home. They only had 21 scoring shots compared to North Melbourne’s 29, while they lost the contested possession count by 28.

It was the 11th time this season the Hawks have been beaten for contested possessions.

This season, they average 14.5 fewer contested possessions than their opponents per game, the worst differential in the AFL.

Round 18

Since the statistic was first captured back in 1999, we haven’t seen a team lose contested

possessions so comprehensively but still manage to win games before, so it will be a fascinating

tracking the Hawks for the rest of the season and into finals.

But first, let’s dig a little deeper into the case of Hawthorn this year.

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WHY THE EMPHASIS ON CONTESTED BALL?

Contested possession counts are an important piece of the football puzzle. Historically, considering contested possessions in a purely win-loss sense, there has been a strong correlation to the final result.

From more than 3000 games since contested possessions were first recorded in 1999, the

team leading the stat has won 70 per cent of games.

So what’s happening at Hawthorn? Have they found a new way to win? or is the contested possession count not all it’s cracked up to be?

Hawthorn games have the third-highest contested possession rate of any team, behind Sydney and Melbourne, whose numbers could be driven up by matches played in the wet.

So are the Hawks not winning enough of the contested ball? They are ranked 11th for total contested possessions — just below Adelaide — and 12th for contested possession percentage, just below Geelong.

Low? For a top-four team, yes. But keep in mind that their win-loss record flatters them slightly and they have the lowest percentage in the top eight.

But terrible? Not really.

Jack Gunston (right) has been deadly in front of goal. Photo: AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy Source: AAP

Hawthorn’s large contested possession differential comes from them conceding the second-most contested possessions in the league.

WHAT’S KEEPING THE HAWKS IN GAMES?

It’s easy to think of the Hawks as just a slick ball movement team with a deadly forward line. Both of those things are true, but they are also manic in their pressure on the ball carrier when the opposition has the ball.

Their high conceded contested possession rate is linked to their high applied pressure factor.

Hawthorn has applied the third most pressure points this season, behind Port Adelaide and Sydney.

Sydney and Port Adelaide also sit first and third in the conceded contested possession rankings.

They set up well behind the ball when they have possession. They have also had the most forward-half intercepts in the AFL and scored the most points from forward-half intercepts.

So perhaps Hawthorn’s high-pressure style of defence forces their opposition’s possessions to be

more contested than against other teams. That would explain why Hawthorn games have the third-highest contested possession rate of any team and why they sit mid-table for contested possessions, but suddenly become the worst in the competition in contested possession differential.

But how is Hawthorn sitting in the top four even though they are just a mid-table team for contested possessions won?

Even with Hawthorn consistently losing contested possession counts, the number has a higher

correlation with the margin in Hawthorn games than nearly any other.

The plot below shows every quarter of every game for the first 13 rounds this season, represented as a relationship between contested possession differential relative to a scoreboard margin, with Hawthorn games highlighted.

. Source: Supplied

The trend is clear, and as you might expect: winning contested possessions leads to a better outcome on the scoreboard.

Hawthorn is no exception. The better the contested possession differential, the more you hit the scoreboard.

In fact, based on the trend line below, a team needs to win the contested possession count by about 6.5 in a quarter against Hawthorn just to break even on the scoreboard.

The reason the Hawks can lose contested possessions but still be in the game is that the contested possession count is just a single piece of a much larger puzzle.

The Hawks, perhaps more-so than any other team in recent history, are well equipped to cope with limited supply and win without dominating possession.

Ball-in-hand they are reliable and precise.

Without the ball they are organised and relentless.

The Hawks are deadly up forward, ranking fifth for goals per inside 50 and third for scoring accuracy. They also boast three of the top 10 players in the league for kick rating in front of goal (minimum 30 shots) with Cyril Rioli, Jack Gunston and James Sicily.

Throw in the bloke who has the record for most consecutive goals without a behind (Luke Bruest with 29) and you can start to see why they are winning games that general play stats suggest they shouldn’t.

In short, the Hawks are a middle-of-the-table team for winning contested possessions and a top-of-the-table team for applied pressure, which explains their ranking of 18th in contested possession differential.

Winning the contested ball is still important for Hawthorn, but their potent forward line

means they will win quarters where they break even for contested possessions and can lose

contested possessions but still break even on the scoreboard.

While it’s not as crucial for the Hawks, it’s important for their opposition to win contested

possession comfortably to give themselves a chance then cash in on their dominance.

Just ask Brad Scott and his Kangaroos.