UPDATES AND LIVE CAM LINK FOLLOWS

The battle of the weather forecast computer models is about to be waged. Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. writes on Twitter:

He adds:

Here’s the latest animation of the Hurricane via infrared satellite view, along with the projected storm tracks from the USA models.

And here are some still images showing radar and cloud cover imaged in infrared:

Now, here is the ECMWF (European) model via Dr. Ryan Maue at weathermodels.com

The ECMWF has some tracks steering the storm into Maui and also Oahu.

Let’s hope it’s wrong.

UPDATE: Dr. Ryan Maue adds on Twitter –

Hurricane Iniki was racing north … moving at a significantly faster clip than #HurricaneLane. The flooding threat from Lane is likely worse than advertised by any weather model. The topography or mountain induced rainfall will be measured in feet. — Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) August 23, 2018

wow GFS either major coup or horrible bust ( I think the latter) every day it turns it northeast, but each day it does so further west, But this would be ugly, hit east central islands in 36 hours.. . CHPC hot buying it I like the euro pic.twitter.com/jsPiAnqXhp — Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) August 23, 2018

UPDATE: 4:20PM PDT

It seems the forecast tracks are staring to look more Northwesterly, following the actual persistence track.

UPDATE: 630PM PDT

BREAKING: National Weather Service says Hurricane Lane has been downgraded to a Category 3 storm. — The Associated Press (@AP) August 24, 2018

The center of Lane went over the data buoy, There were GUSTS to 107, IMO this is a cat 2 hurricane now, Does not change threat to Hawaii which is mainly from excessive rain, but just an observation based on pressure rises and actual obs pic.twitter.com/ratYMxxuIg — Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) August 24, 2018

LiveCam at Waikiki Beach:

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