Right, let’s get this straight. You can’t say “swamped”, but “under siege” is ok. “Swamped” should have been replaced by “under pressure”. But there is nothing disproportionate, hyperbolical or inflammatory about “under siege”. People of this country are, quite literally, “under siege” from hordes of immigrants. These immigrants are marching around seaside towns at night with flaming torches and assorted weaponry, screaming menacing slogans in obscure Slavonic languages, and battering away at people’s front doors as inside innocent residents cower, terrified, under the kitchen table. People are under siege I tell you, they are under siege!

Meanwhile the Prime Minister, who told us last year he would argue for the UK’s continued membership of the EU, grows ever more red-faced and tetchy as he loses friends and influences absolutely no-one. His chancellor is told about an incoming surcharge but fails for 48 hours to share the news of this latest outrage. Indeed, it must have been clear to the government for some time that a recalculation of the size and performance of the UK economy was going to lead to this situation. Our German friends, for so long and so frequently described as being “on side”, turn out to be not on side at all. Spricht jemand in der Cameron-Mannschaft deutsch*? Amazingly, all those hilarious Dave witticisms, about the English countryside belonging to Germany or about the English speaking German if only the war had turned out differently, do not seem to have helped win any support from Angela Merkel and her advisers. The famous Dave charm and intellect have been found wanting, as has his judgment.

Fortune is favouring Labour, again. There is now a gaping political hole waiting to be filled by a mainstream party that can talk pragmatic sense on these two incendiary issues of Europe and immigration. EU membership has in fact become more popular in recent weeks, according to Ipsos Mori. By abandoning a reasonable and measured tone on immigration the Conservatives will fail to win over (back) Ukip doubters while alienating many of those who gave Dave a chance in 2010. Pat McFadden made a good start in establishing a sensible new tone yesterday. Next up: Tory opposition to the useful and necessary European arrest warrant because… well, because it has got the word “European” in it.

What on earth are the Conservatives playing at? They are, clearly, terrified of what growing Ukip support is doing to them. As Jane Merrick pointed out in yesterday’s Independent on Sunday, the Tories are diverting money they should be targeting at potential seat gains back towards constituencies they are worried about losing. They are already admitting to themselves, privately, that winning a majority is beyond them.

But why has Ukip support surged? The party has been given too easy a ride both by political opponents but also by a media that cannot resist novelty even when it comes with a funny taste in the mouth. And by funny I do not mean amusing.

There is a paradox here. Even while many in the media remain convinced that Labour should not and must not get back into government, their own failure to question and challenge Ukip effectively is helping to strengthen the chances of Ed Miliband getting to No 10. The limited attention span and curious methods of some in the media just make Nigel Farage’s grin stretch wider. He is their creation to quite a large extent.

Goodness knows Labour still faces big difficulties – in Scotland, and in trying to maintain a now almost-vanished poll lead. The party has not convinced enough people it is ready to govern. It has not built much enthusiasm for its programme, indeed, it is not clear that many have grasped how a Labour government would differ from the current one.

But the incoherence and panic of the Conservatives should be encouragement enough for the main opposition party to get its act together with under 200 days to go to polling day. In football this is what they call an open goal. But pick whichever metaphor you like. Speaking up for a confident, modern Britain that engages successfully in Europe while offering better opportunities for people at home cannot be too much to ask. Can it?

* Does anyone in Team Cameron speak German?