State Rep. Winnie Brinks, R-Grand Rapids, waves to supporters as she declares victory for the 29th State Senate seat. Brinks was one of five Democrats to flip a state Senate seat from red to blue in the 2018 election. (MLive file photo)

How big was the blue wave in Michigan?

Consider this: In all 83 Michigan counties, the share of Democratic votes increased compared to the 2016 presidential election.

That's based on the percentages of voters who backed Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump in 2016 compared to the collective votes cast in the eight statewide races on the 2018 ballot. (The eight races: Governor, U.S. Senate, attorney general, secretary of state, state Board of Education and three university boards.)

That blue wave resulted in a Democratic sweep of the statewide offices. Michigan Democrats also flipped two Congressional seats from red to blue as well as five seats each in the state House and Senate.

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Note: Two seats were on the ballot for the Michigan Board of Education and three university boards.

Still, the Democratic surge this November didn't wipe out Trump's 2016 refashioning of Michigan's political scene.

In fact, Michigan appears to be part of the national re-alignment of Democrats and Republicans: Affluent, college-educated voters are trending blue, even as Trump seems to be solidifying his base among the white working-class, especially in rural counties.

Among trends evident in county-level vote totals collected by the Michigan Secretary of State's office:

There's a strong correlation between education levels and the partisan divide: Democrats have made their biggest gains in counties with the largest percentage of college graduates, while counties with the lowest percentage of college graduates have become more Republican since 2014.

Kent, the longtime heart of the Michigan Republican Party, is becoming a swing county.

Former swing counties such as Oakland and Kalamazoo are now Democratic.

The Democratic base is eroding in the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City region, where white, working-class voters seem to be aligning with Trump and the GOP.

Since 2014, Republicans have strengthened their hold on northern Michigan.

Below is a closer look at those trends, starting with a chart that shows Michigan's partisan divide since the 2004 presidential election.

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Percentage for 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 reflect Michigan's vote for president. The percentages for 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 show the collective votes cast for statewide offices.

The chart shows that more votes were cast for Democrats most years, although Republicans had a strong year in 2010, when Gov. Rick Snyder was first elected. That was the election where the Tea Party was a growing force and voters were rebelling against the newly passed Affordable Care Act.

(The 2014 election offered an interesting scenario: While Republicans won re-election for governor, attorney general and secretary of state, Democrats took more votes for U.S. Senate and the four statewide down-ballot races: Michigan Board of Education and the three university boards.)

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Partisan trend by county

Next is an online database that allows you to see the 2014-16 numbers by county

The database shows the margin in favor of Democrats or Republicans for the 2014, 2016 and 2018 November elections.

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If the database doesn't appear in this post, you can click here.

As with the statewide chart, the 2014 and 2018 numbers reflect votes cast in statewide races and 2016 numbers reflect the margin for Trump or Clinton.

Also shown is Republicans' gain or loss in 2016 compared to 2014, and the Democrats' gain in 2018 compared to 2016. The final column shows the net change between 2014 and 2018. (Note: The net change may not equal the other two columns because of rounding.)

The database uses vote totals compiled by Michigan Secretary of State office.

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Interactive map of 2016 presidential election

This map shows the counties that voted for Trump or Clinton in 2016. You can click on any county to see the underlying data.

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Trump's victory included flipping 12 counties that voted for Obama in 2014: Macomb. Saginaw, Bay, Monroe, Calhoun, Van Buren, Eaton, Shiawassee, Isabella, Lake, Manistee and Gogebic.

Trump also won nine counties by at least 40 points: Alcona, Luce, Kalkaska, Osceola, Montmorency, Oscoda, Sanilac, Hillsdale and Missaukee. (Trump scored his biggest win in Missaukee, where 74% went from Trump compared to 21% for Clinton, a 52-point margin.)

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Interactive map of 2018 election

The next map shows the percentage of votes cast for Republicans vs. Democrats for statewide office in 2018.

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Of the nine counties that went 40 points or more for Trump, only one -- Missaukee -- had at least a 40-point winning margin for Republicans in 2018.

Meanwhile, seven counties that went for Trump gave a winning margin to Democrats in 2018: Macomb, Saginaw, Bay, Gogebic, Isabella, Eaton and Leelanau. (In Leelanau, Democrats got 0.1 percent more votes than Republicans.)

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Davison residents fill out applications to vote on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018 at First Baptist Church of Davison. (Jake May | MLive.com)

Partisan divides

What the 2016 and 2018 maps don't reflect are the more subtle changes occurring within Michigan counties.

Ottawa and Genesee counties are good examples of those shifts.

Ottawa, which is part of metro Grand Rapids, was Michigan's most-Republican county in 2014. It remains solidly Republican today, but the GOP base is eroding: The margin between Republicans and Democrats shrunk by 17 percentile points between 2014 and 2018 as affluent, well-educated voters shift their alliance from Republicans to Democrats.

Meanwhile, Genesee County, which includes Flint, is an example of the reverse phenomenon. In 2014, Genesee was Michigan's second-most Democratic County. It remains solidly Democratic today, but the Democratic base is eroding, as the margin between the two parties shrunk by 8 percentile points between 2014 and 2018.

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The education gap

Below is a map that shows the percentage of Michigan residents with at least a bachelor's degree by county.

Educational attainment has become a strong indicator of the partisan shifting within Michigan.

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In fact, the 10 counties with the biggest shift towards Democrats between 2014 and 2018 are also among the counties with the state's highest percentage of college graduates.

Here's a list of the 10 counties where Democrats gained the most ground, with the percentile shift listed in parenthesis: Kent (19 points), Washtenaw (18), Ottawa (17), Oakland (16), Kalamazoo (15), Ingham (11), Grand Traverse (11), Leelanau (10), Emmet (10) and Livingston (9).

(Note that while the GOP vote share is shrinking there, Kent, Ottawa, Grand Traverse, Emmet and Livingston remain Republican counties.)

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Winnie Brinks' victory party in Grand Rapids on Election Night. A Democratic state representative, Brinks won the 29th State Senate seat, flipping the district from red to blue. (MLive file photo)

Notice the county with the biggest shift left was Kent County, home of Grand Rapids and considered the heart of the Michigan Republican Party.

In 2014, 57% of Kent County ballots in statewide contests went for Republican candidates and 37% for Democrats.

In 2018, It was 48% for Republicans and 47% for Democrats, a 19-point swing.

Kent County's vote for Democratic governor breaks decades-long streak

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At the other end of the spectrum

Meanwhile, Trump-inspired enthusiasm has helped Republicans make gains in large swaths of rural Michigan, particularly in areas where median household incomes and educational attainment is below the state average.

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Map showing median household income, based on Census Bureau's average for 2012-16. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.

Here's the list of the 10 counties where Republicans made the most gains since 2014: Oscoda (17 points), Ogemaw (17 points), Montmorency (16), Arenac (15), Clare (14), Gladwin (14), Alcona (13), Baraga (13), Roscommon (13) and Lake (12).

A common denominator among those counties: In all 10, less than 17% of adults have a bachelor's degree, which is 10 points below the state average.

The 10 also rank at or near the bottom among the 83 counties in median household income. In fact, only Baraga had a median household income over $40,000. The statewide median for 2012-16 was $50,800.

Oscoda County in the northeast Lower Peninsula saw the biggest shift towards the GOP between 2014 and 2018.

In 2014, 54% of Oscoda ballots in statewide contests went for Republicans and 37% for Democrats. Then in 2016, 70% of Oscoda voters backed Trump.

This past November, 64% voted for Republicans on the statewide ballot and 30% for Democrats, a 17-point shift since 2014.

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Haley Stevens, Democratic candidate for Michigan's 11th Congressional District, gives a thumbs up as exits her polling place Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018, in Rochester Hills, Mich. Stevens defeated Republican Lena Epstein. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

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Oakland County as the 'blue wave' epicenter

The county-level data also shows the importance of Oakland County in Michigan's blue wave.

In 2014, 14 counties had Democrats outvoting Republicans in the eight statewide races. In 2018, it was 15 counties. The very big addition to the list: Oakland, the state's second-most populated county.

This November, Democrats in Oakland County won four congressional races, flipped four seats in the Michigan Legislature and gained a majority on the Oakland County Board of Commissioners for the first time in 40 years.

"They won everything," said David Dulio, a Oakland University political science professor. "Nationally there was no blue wave but there was a lot of localized flooding. That localized flooding was really significant here in Michigan and I think you could say Oakland County was the epicenter of that."

Oakland County was epicenter of Michigan's 'blue wave'

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The shift within Oakland County also illustrates the importance that metro Detroit plays in Michigan elections.

Although Republicans have an advantage in 68 out of 83 counties in Michigan, Democrats dominate in vote-rich urban and suburban areas.

That includes Wayne County, the state's most-populated county, where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1. And in 2018, the number of ballots cast in Wayne County alone roughly equaled the collective total in 53 rural Michigan counties.

In fact, 38% of all ballots statewide were cast in metro Detroit -- Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties -- and the state's 10 largest counties, seven of which are now Democratic, accounted for almost two-thirds of Michigan voters.

In other words: Democrats won in Michigan this election because their gains in larger urban and suburban counties outpaced the GOP gains in rural Michigan.

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Related stories

Here are links to related stories on post-election coverage:

Democratic enthusiasm, lack of clear message contributed to Schuette's loss

How Michigan's Congressional makeup changed after the 2018 election

11 biggest surprises from Michigan election

Democrats remain in minority in Michigan Legislature despite winning majority of votes

See map of how Michigan counties voted for governor

See how your county voted on legal weed and other 2 statewide proposals

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