How serious is the Covid-19 situation in India and how prepared are we?

The fact that cases, even in India, are now increasing rapidly, is there a risk of community transmission?

Many public health experts have expressed concerns about lesser number of samples being tested in India. Even the

Organisation has said that a shift in testing strategy may be needed.

How important is the message from the PM in terms of public awareness about Covid-19 pandemic?

You think his appeal for janata curfew will make a difference?

Is the ‘janata curfew’ a pilot run before government extends it further?

The government has decided to rope in private players. Who is going to bear the cost of testing /treatment at private facilities?

Are there efforts to develop indigenous diagnostics and vaccines against Covid-19? What about novel therapies?

What is India’s strategy to defeat this outbreak?

Sunday’s countrywide social distancing through ‘janata curfew’ will be a blow to the transmission chain of coronavirus and check further spread in case it enters Stage 3 with community transmission, says Niti Aayog member VK Paul. Given the nature of the pandemic, a wider spread of Covid-19 can’t be ruled out in coming days or weeks, he tells TOI’s Sushmi Dey . Excerpts:The nation has succeeded in keeping the spread reasonably contained. Compared to other countries, and despite our large size, the incidence is low and number of deaths few. Some countries succeeded in limiting the disease at this stage, while others could not avert large outbreak. We have some benefit of knowing what worked there and what mistakes were made. Ours is a calibrated approach factoring in our unique epidemiological, demographic, socio-economic and cultural context. The government took many measures to prevent entry of virus into the country with graded restrictions on travel and visa, and strict screening at airports and ports covering 1.5 million passengers. A large number of individuals were quarantined. Surveillance of thousands of potential contacts has been carried out. We strengthened our laboratory network. Centre and state governments have marshalled hospital beds, commodities, ventilators and human resources.Based on the results of surveillance by the National Centre for Disease Control as well as by Indian Council of Medical Research , we believe that we have no definite evidence of community transmission, as of now. At this stage, we should persist with enhanced level of social distancing and contact tracing, coupled with surveillance.WHO’s recommendations are generic and global. We have taken into account WHO’s views and also examined how different countries tackled the outbreak. The pandemic is in different stages in different nations. Testing is done for two purposes. First, as a part of surveillance which is primarily intelligence gathering on the disease behaviour and spread. The second one is for taking clinical decisions for an individual who may have exposure or symptoms. Often the two reasons get mixed up in the media debate. Experts are periodically reviewing the testing strategy.The Prime Minister’s address is a clarion call to the nation to come together to meet the unprecedented challenge. He has given twin mantras of resolve and restraint to ensure that the country is secured, lives are saved and the economy is protected. His speech is the single most comprehensive effort at public awareness. You are already seeing the positive effect with people pledging their participation, social media buzz, new steps on social distancing by states.Yes, very much; at three levels. One, it will demonstrate that our entire nation can voluntarily rise to avert a calamity; and this will be a testimony to our collective determination, will power and discipline. Two, even a single day of universal social distancing will be a blow to the transmission chain of the virus. Three, and perhaps the most important, it will prepare us for next steps in case we experience a full blown stage III scenario. Sunday, the 22nd of March, will mark a quantum change in India’s narrative to fight Covid-19.Our future strategy would depend on how the outbreak behaves. Although we have done well so far, we must be prepared for the next possible scenarios. As is the nature of this pandemic, we cannot rule out a wider spread of the virus in coming days and weeks.Private health sector is an integral part of India’s health system for diagnosis as well as patient care. In some respects, the private sector is better positioned than the public sector for critical care infrastructure. Mapping of private hospital isolation beds and intensive care services has been going on. India’s comprehensive response to Covid-19 is by her entire healthcare enterprise — both public and private. The question of who pays for treatment is not relevant. Let us not forget that Ayushman Bharat (PMJAY) covers hospitalisation expenses for nearly half of India’s population with participation of over 10,000 private hospitals.Our scientists, research organisations and the pharma and biotechnology industry are among the very best in the world. India can offer these solutions for sure. There are at least 4-5 promising indigenous diagnostic tests that are being subjected to validation. Likewise, 2-3 potential vaccine leads are being pursued expeditiously. Departments of Biotechnology and Science and Technology have announced research programmes on treatment, diagnostics and vaccines. Regulatory pathways have been specially tailored to fast track trials and marketing.Our strategy comprises containment of the outbreak at present. If the situation changes, mitigation response will be mounted as a pan-nation mission. The Centre and state governments are in sync. Entire health sector will work as one system. Pharma and medical product industry will ensure that supplies do not dry up. I have no doubt ‘Team India’ will win this war.