AAP may hurt BJP prospects in Haryana



The BJP is all set to sweep Haryana at Lok Sabha level, while the debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) makes an impressive entry in the state next-door to Delhi, where AAP has formed its first government.

The AAP is giving sleepless nights to the Congress in Haryana as well. The BJP must read the warning signs written on the wall - that three months is a long time in politics. If it allows AAP just an elbow's room the party might very well end up putting in the entire head the way it managed to in Delhi.



Following the pattern in Delhi, AAP is eating up the entire BSP vote bank that would have gone to the Congress in a normal scenario. The current scenario shows that half of the votes are coming to the fledgling party's kitty from the BSP and the other half from voters who are not inclined to any other party.



Decision time: Young voters queue at a polling station (file picture)

The survey shows that the Congress and BSP's Dalit vote bank has gone down drastically in the state. This base is done; the natural expansion for AAP is going to be the urban middle class votes which are strongly behind the BJP at the moment. But we have seen these votes slip away to AAP when the BJP was too busy sorting out its own internal mess.



So, the AAP has already hit the BSP and Congress in Haryana; the next target would be the BJP.



The entry of AAP is ensuring that it eats up the buffer vote of the Congress, which would have compensated for the loss of the anti-incumbent vote going to the BJP. Now the Congress stands to lose big-time in the 10-odd Lok Sabha seats of the state.



Looking at the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP seems to be sweeping the state at the moment. But if the AAP enjoys the same growth in the run-up to the General Elections, the contest might become bipolar between the BJP and AAP.



If AAP crosses 25 per cent vote share in a triangular or multi-corner contest, the quantum of seats will start increasing big time.



Ahead of Delhi Assembly elections, AAP saw a rise in vote share from 20 per cent to 30 per cent, which might also get replicated in Haryana.

There is an upstart for AAP in urban areas of Haryana, particularly in the extension part of the national Capital. The debutant party is basically eating up the non-aligned and Dalit votes.



Interestingly, the symbol of the broom has worked well for the AAP in pulling the Dalits, a sizeable community in the state, who feel strongly attached to the symbol just as in Delhi.



One of the reasons is the lack of focus by BSP supremo Mayawati. Her step-motherly treatment to local leaders in Haryana and states other than UP has resulted in the frittering away of Dalit votes. The BSP's fiasco in the Delhi and Rajasthan Assembly polls is one such example.



The second important trend, which was also witnessed in the Delhi Assembly polls, is the shifting of Muslim votes in AAP's favour. Muslims angry with the grand old party are showing their inclination towards AAP.



A huge population of Meo Muslims in Haryana and Faridabad might shift for AAP. In other words, the Congress is seen as the biggest loser at the moment. And it is unable to compensate for the loss.

In the NCR part of Haryana, even the middle-class is voting for AAP. Just as in Delhi, the AAP has hit the anti-incumbent votes in Haryana.



As AAP has an important leader in Yogendra Yadav, who is also projected as the chief ministerial candidate for the state, this might swing Yadav votes in AAP's favour. However, this trend would be limited to Haryana.



Talking about the BJP, in Haryana, the saffron party was never a big player. However, in the case of Assembly elections, the BJP is bound to emerge as the single largest party at the moment. But if the AAP enjoys the same growth in the next three months, it is going to hurt the BJP in the same manner as it did in the recent Delhi Assembly polls.



Better position



In the context of the Assembly elections, the Congress and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) vote share stand in a much better position when compared to their imminent rout in the Lok Sabha polls.



Bhupinder Singh Hooda might still manage Dalit and Muslim votes apart from the non-Jat voters, and the INLD led by Om Prakash Chautala might still manage Jat votes for one last time. So there is no chance of these parties getting wiped out in the Assembly polls.

