Paul Myerberg

USA TODAY Sports

Massachusetts fired third-year coach Kevin Morris in the winter of 2011 after 16 wins and 17 losses, citing performance, of course, but also unrealized progress during the football program's steady transition to the Football Bowl Subdivision.

"It was a move we felt we really need to make to best position ourselves for this transition," athletic director John McCutcheon said.

It's been a bumpy transition.

Two years after Morris' departure and Charley Molnar's arrival, here is UMass football – on its second coach on the FBS level, owners of two wins in as many years, two years away from leaving the Mid-American Conference and perhaps going it alone, should another FBS conference not open its doors to one of college football's paycheck programs.

To reverse this course and rediscover its stride – UMass was once a Football Championship Subdivision contender – the school dipped into its past, bringing back former coach Mark Whipple 11 years after the end of his six-year turn leading the Minutemen. Whipple isn't the only coach to win at UMass, nor was he the last; he's just the program's last, best hope for FBS survival.

But in comparison to the program's move to the FBS, Whipple's transition back into the fold should be as smooth as a three-step drop. Oh, that's a good reminder: UMass needs a quarterback.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION :

The Minutemen's slow, steady, up-from-the-bootstraps climb continues in 2013 with another deadly non-conference slate, another tough MAC schedule and, more than likely, another 10 or more losses. Ten losses seem a safe pick: UMass should beat Maine in September and then get one MAC win, but anything more than that would be a slight surprise. Why? Quite simply, UMass doesn't have the offensive firepower to run with most of the MAC nor the defensive fortitude to bottle teams up and win in the fourth quarter.

2013 RECAP :

In a nutshell: UMass did win once – and no, it wasn't against Maine in September. That was a 24-14 loss, one of 11 on the year, one of five at home. The lone victory came against a MAC foe, believe it or not, and ensured that despite two years of horror, the Minutemen have yet to finish in last place in the East Division. (That's not a good look, Miami (Ohio) and Akron.) Last year's team was magnificently terrible on offense, finishing either 12th or 13th in the MAC in points, passing and yards per game. The defense was only slightly better: UMass allowed 6.6 yards per play, the second-worst total in the MAC – saved only by Eastern Michigan – and 114th nationally. The question by year's end wasn't whether UMass would fire Molnar, the former Notre Dame assistant with the 2-22 record; it was why the school made the hire at all.

High point: The 17-10 win against Miami (Ohio) on Oct. 12. When two offenses of such ineptitude meet, the only winners are those fans who stayed away in droves.

Low point: Single-point losses to Western Michigan and Akron during the second half were painful, but neither lingered quite as long as the continued impotence against the schedule's best opponents. UMass would score only a combined 66 points against eight eventual bowl teams – Wisconsin, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan and Ohio. The defense would allow 317 points.

Tidbit: UMass has won two games on the FBS level, topping Akron in 2012 and Miami a year ago. Akron went 1-11 in 2012; Miami went winless. Of the 22 losses since 2012, 19 have come by 10 or more points. The outliers: 37-34 to Ohio in 2012, 31-30 to Western Michigan in 2013 and 14-13 to Akron in 2013. In just under half of its games – 11 of 24 – the Minutemen have scored a touchdown or less.

Tidbit (coaching edition): Of the 128 coaches in the FBS – yes, there are now 128 FBS programs – Whipple is one of five to have served two separate stints at his current stop. (This does not include coaches who once worked as assistants at a certain program before being hired.) Whipple went 49-26 at UMass from 1998-2003, three times reaching the FCS playoffs. The others are Louisville's Bobby Petrino, Kansas State's Bill Snyder, Oregon State's Mike Riley and Texas State's Dennis Franchione. That number jumps to six if we include Nebraska's Bo Pelini, who was the interim coach at the end of 2003 before returning to the full-time job in 2008.

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST :

NFL quarterbacks coached by Mark Whipple:

1. Ben Roethlisberger

2. Donovan McNabb

3. Seneca Wallace

4. Charlie Batch

5. Kevin Kolb

PLAYERS TO WATCH :

Offense: Good news first: UMass does have a stable of younger pieces with the potential to develop nicely in Whipple's system. Now, the bad news: UMass' young roster is far from ready for the bright lights, outside of a cog or two, and will need every minute, every moment, every snap and every practice to jell before butting heads with Boston College at the end of August. Want another taste of good news? It's obvious that the up-tempo, quick-moving offense used under Molnar wasn't working; Whipple's offense, meanwhile, will blend a quarterback-first approach with the sort of pro-style tendencies even the youngest and rawest of rosters can grasp in a shortened time frame. Good news, bad news, good news.

There's a leadership void at the skill positions without tight end Rob Blanchflower, meaning junior receiver Tajae Sharpe (61 receptions for 680 yards) must carry that additional mantle – leading by example – while maintaining his production in the passing game. Helping matters is the return of junior Marken Michel, who missed all of last season but returns to give UMass a field-stretching threat capable of drawing attention away from its go-to target. It's a young group lacking senior leadership: Sharpe and Michel are the elders, followed by tested-but-unproven teammates like Elgin Long, Bernard Davis, Shakur Nesmith and Shaquille Harris. Another name to consider: Graduate transfer Alex Kenney comes over from Penn State after making three grabs in 2013, a decline from his 17-catch performance in 2012. Missing an intermediate, middle-of-the-field tight end hurts this offense.

Same story in the backfield and up front, where the Minutemen hope to boost last year's paltry ground attack to give some balance to a cover-your-eyes offense – because despite Whipple's history of quarterback tutelage, this offense will be stuck in neutral without some punch between the tackles. The backfield returns three of last year's top four – led by Jamal Wilson and Shadrach Abrokwah, who shined late – while adding Jordan Broadnax, who was projected to start last fall before being lost for the year with a knee injury. Lorenzo Woodley is also in the mix for touches, though it's clear that barring injury, one potential contributor will go hungry. Up front, UMass returns two starters, guard Tyrell Smith and center Matt Sparks, while a younger crop of reserve linemen step into starting roles on the edges. It's not the best front in the MAC, to put it lightly. But the group as a whole will improve.

Defense: UMass will shift to a 3-4 look behind new coordinator Tom Masella, a former Whipple assistant – 2002-3 with UMass – last seen running the offense at Wagner. (Yes, he was the Seahawks' offensive coordinator.) How will Masella fix an equal-opportunity offender – a group that stunk in the first quarter and the last, on first down and third, in its own territory and with its back to the end zone? In a way, shifting to the 3-4 will help offset a heavy degree of attrition up front: UMass has no down linemen worthy of attention, perhaps with the exception of senior tackle Daniel Maynes, and even with the three-man look will be forced to play youngsters throughout the defensive front. A seasoned offensive line will chew this line to bits.

Maynes will likely serve in the middle and, with some help from Al Leneus and Robert Kitching, hold the key to the entire deal – a tall task for a player coming off a knee injury who might struggle holding up at the point of attack. He'll be flanked up front by a combination of ends paced by redshirt freshman Sha-Ki Holines, Peter Angeh, Leo Krisanovic and Adam Richard. There could be growing pains. One option, should UMass look to beef up its pass rush, is to put Trey Seals on two feet and let him go to work; while not productive thus far, the junior has the length and initial burst to make things happen on third down. I imagine he'll spend 2014 at outside linebacker.

The news get better as we work toward the back end. The linebacker corps has an all-conference contender in senior Stanley Andre (111 tackles, 6.0 for loss), who should again pace the team in tackles – should Maynes and friends keep him clean – while juniors Jovan Santos-Knox and Kassan Messiah should slot into starting roles on the outside, joined by Seals. Sophomore Shane Huber seems like a natural fit for the interior should he bounce back from last year's knee injury; he was limited during the spring. If Seals can find a role as an edge rusher, UMass could cobble together a competent second level.

And the secondary is, well, pretty good – if not firmly among the top third of the MAC. Three starters return, led by cornerbacks Trey Dudley-Giles (42 tackles) and Randall Jette (45 tackles), two juniors with a knack for defending the ball, if rarely turning this aggressiveness into much-needed turnovers. (As a team in 2013, the Minutemen forced 19 turnovers, only eight via interceptions.) Although Devin Brown is lost to graduation, the secondary essentially returns a fourth starter in senior Ed Saint-Vil (82 tackles), who served as the fifth defensive back a season ago. Barring a solid offseason from a competitor like D'Metrius Williams – the famous halftime tweeter – Saint-Vil will join junior Joe Colton in patrolling the back of the UMass defense. Forcing mistakes in the passing game should be a top priority.

Special teams: Kicker Blake Lucas can make extra points, with last year as evidence, but things get hazy anywhere beyond 20 yards on field goals. Hence the chance that a pair of redshirt freshmen, Markus Colin and Logan Laurent, take over at kicker and punter – with Laurent stepping in for Colter Johnson. But the return game is fancy, especially with Dudley-Giles back on punts. Next the UMass defense needs to, you know, force punts.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH :

Quarterback: As the competition currently stands, the job is sophomore A.J. Doyle's to lose. Good, bad, ambivalent? Like the rest of the offense, it pays to view Doyle's 2013 season through a certain prism – and to consider how he can improve under Whipple's careful scrutiny. But let's not ignore one fact: Doyle was subpar last fall, to be kind, throwing nearly twice as many interceptions as touchdowns and averaging only 5.4 yards per attempt, the latter miles off even the top 100 quarterbacks nationally. Like the entire offense, Doyle can't provide any less punch. But he was the clear starter exiting the spring, moving ahead of youngsters Todd Stafford and Andrew Verboys, and would be the starter if not for Marshall graduate transfer Blake Frohnapfel – a ready-to-play addition tasked with saving the day.

Here's what we know about Frohnapfel: He played behind Rakeem Cato, which is nothing to cry over; he was a sturdy backup who performed well on the practice field and between the white lines, even in a small game-day sample size; he's a big, strong-armed thrower with the physical gifts to make the offense work; and he'll clearly be motivated to make the most of his final season of eligibility. He's the answer, in short, to UMass' biggest offensive question of the last two years. And if not, UMass is going to finish last in the MAC. What's there to lose?

GAME(S) TO WATCH :

Eastern Michigan: With Miami (Ohio) and Kent State coming on the road, a home date with the Eagles seems like the Minutemen's best shot at a victory. September will be cruel: Boston College, Colorado, Vanderbilt and Penn State. Hide the children. But beginning with the RedHawks, a focused UMass team could pull off a winning streak during MAC play – or at least multiple wins during a short span, which would be cause for celebration.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION :

In a nutshell: The Minutemen's issues, from least concerning to most: secondary, coaching, return game, receivers, quarterback, running game, offensive line, coverage teams, pass rush, run defense, kicking game, depth. So in the MAC – and against another daunting out-of-conference slate – how many wins can a top-flight secondary and a coaching upgrade land UMass? If last year's team went 1-11, this year's team may win … two. Maybe. Let's start with what the Minutemen will do well.

The secondary's solid, truly solid, and could flourish with a beefed-up pass rush. Unfortunately, the front seven will stub its toe in the move to the 3-4, especially up front. It'll take every trick in Masella's arsenal to pressure quarterbacks on third down. Of greater concern, perhaps, is first down – because this secondary will be for naught should UMass leave the opposition short-yardage conversions. Offensively, Frohnapfel could give Whipple's attack the triggerman it needs to take flight; he could also be merely average, if not worse, and the Minutemen will remain stuck in neutral, neither able to run effectively – a likelihood given the inexperience up front – or pass to move downfield.

To put it as politely as possible: On paper – not on the field, and UMass in August will clearly be a different team than the Molnar-era version – the Minutemen don't seem to do anything well. It's going to be a struggle. If not the worst team in the country – because there are more strong contenders for No. 128 than No. 1 – UMass is easily among the nation's bottom 10, a program that understands the importance of winning today and tomorrow yet lacks the talent, experience and depth to win more than one or two games during the regular season. Here is UMass football: today is better than yesterday, but only by a hair.

Dream season: UMass goes 4-8, notching an enormous upset of Boston College in the opener and beating Miami (Ohio), Eastern Michigan and Kent State in October.

Nightmare season: The Minutemen go winless, losing each game by 14 or more points and justifying this cruel preseason ranking.

UP NEXT :

Who's No. 127? Of this program's all-time win total, 34.8% came during a two-year span.