Announcement! I’ve made a Facebook page for the blog! If you like what you read please please (please) give me a like so you can keep up with the blog when new stuff comes out. I also have a Twitter, which is pretty neat. Follow me if you enjoy my content!

Good teams are built around good goaltending. This is true with very little exception. Keeping pucks out is just as important as getting them in, and there has been many a team transformed by the acquisition of a capable netminder. The Panthers are no exception to this.

In 2013-14 the Panthers .900 SV% and 3.20 GAA were big parts of the Panthers 29th place finish. Roberto Luongo returned to South Florida at the end of that season, and after other free agent acquisitions in the off-season led to major improvements for the cats defense and goaltending. Luongo finished that season with a .921SV% and 2.34 GAA. The Panthers also improved 25 points despite their continued struggles on offense and special teams.

To be blunt, a big part of that Cats’ 25 point improvement in 2014-15 and their presence among the top teams in the Atlantic this season is their goaltending.

However, Luongo is getting old. He is 36 right now and by the time many of the Cats young guns reach their prime years Luongo will most likely be too old to contribute as a starter. He is half-way through a 12-year deal, and will not be eligible for free agency until July 1, 2022 when he is 43 year old. Luongo’s contract details are complex due to an interesting clause in the Collective Bargaining Agreement called the Cap Advantage Recapture Rule (an article for another time), but suffice it to say that Luongo’s cap hit of $4.53 million could cause issues down the road if he decides not to retire

The biggest issue with Luongo isn’t his performance now, but the fact that he is aging and won’t be able to produce at such a capable level toward the end of his contract. If he chooses to play, Luongo could be relegated to a backup by the end of his career. The $4.53 million cap hit won’t be gone though, at least not until the deal is up or he retires. This contract could possibly hurt the Panthers down the road if owners Vincent Viola and Doug Cifu go through with their plan to bring the Panthers to the salary cap rather than the floor.

Dale Tallon said about the Panther’s ability to spend “They’ve [Viola and Cifu] given me the green light to be a cap team. So that’s fantastic. Not a floor team, a cap team” in a 2014 Sun-Sentinel article. If this is still the plan, Florida may have issues in the 2020s or even in the near future depending on how closed to the cap they want to get. The Salary Cap could also grow enough to make Luongo’s contract a non-issue. Time will tell on the money issue, but the performance issue is almost out the question.

Simply put, Luongo isn’t going to be able to produce as a starter at the end of his contract term, and that very same contract could conceivably make it hard to find another affordable option. Assuming the Panthers don’t force Luongo into retirement, which I don’t think they would do, what are the Panthers going to do about their future in net?

My best guess is that the Panthers look into free agency or trade to solve their goaltending woes. It may create cap issues to have two high paid goaltenders on the payroll in the coming years, but goaltending is so necessary for success in the NHL nowadays that the Panthers may choose to let go other future assets in order to pay a suitable goaltender.

The other goaltenders in the Panther organization right now are not strong enough to emerge as NHL starters, in my opinion. Let’s take a look at the goalies in the Panther organization right now who could compete the starting job in the future.

Al Montoya

Al Montoya was drafted 6th overall by the Rangers in 2004 with hopes of one day emerging as a top starter in the NHL. Unfortunately for him and the teams he has been on, it hasn’t quite panned out that way for The Big Cubano. Montoya has been hot and cold for his entire career. He has posted solid save percentages as .925 in 2008, .920 in 2013, and .930 thus far in 2015, but also some less than savory numbers as .893 2011, .899 in 2012, and 892 in 2014.

Montoya just isn’t consistent enough to be a starter for a team that hopes to contend for a cup in the future. The Panthers may opt to re-sign him this off-season as a backup for Luongo in the near future, but he is probably not in the team’s long-term plans.

Sam Brittain

Sam Brittain was drafted in the fourth round of the 2010 draft by the Panthers. He had a very solid four year career at University of Denver. In his career at Denver he finished with .924 SV% and a 2.97GAA. He entererd the professional scene last season, playing 27 games in the ECHL before earning an AHL call up due to injuries with the Panthers that forced then AHL backup Dan Ellis to the NHL. In his 7 AHL games last year he posted a .943 SV%. This year in 9 contests he appears to have slowed down, posting an .899 SV%.

Brittain is an AHL backup at the moment, but he still needs to take steps to refine his game. It may take him a few seasons to find his way in the minors before he is ready for a call up the NHL. He isn’t ready to take on a starting role in the minors, let alone get minutes in the NHL, especially as a starter. Unless he whoops all projections and does so fairly quickly, he isn’t a contender for a starting job in the future.

Colin Stevens

Colin Stevens is the current keeper for the Manchester Monarchs of the ECHL. Originally undrafted, he is posting a solid .910 SV% this season, his first professional season. Stevens won a national championship with Union College in 2014, and in his career at Union he posted a mighty impressive .924 SV% and a 1.91 GAA.

Stevens is my favorite choice to get a starting job in the future of all the goalie’s in the pipeline. Stevens is a winner in big games, and has numbers to prove it. He was a very successful goalie in the NCAA and is starting off his career on the right foot. If he continues to improve he can jump into a nice role with the big league organization, but I’m not sure exactly how high his ceiling is. He could wind up being a diamond in the rough for the Panthers, but still has to climb the ECHL and AHL totem poles to get there.

Samuel Montembeault

Samuel Montembeault was a 2015 3rd round draft pick by the Panthers, currently playing in the QMJHL for the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. While his team sits 13th in the league, Montembeault is 4th in the league in GAA allowing just 2.79 goals against in a very high scoring league. Montembeault is also representing Team Canada at the World Junior Cup, although he hasn’t played yet.

Montembeault is a few months younger than me. Montembeault just turned 19 in October. He most likely age out of juniors after one more season and then join the minor league development train that most goalies have to get on. Montembeault will be lucky to be NHL ready (if he even gets to that point) in 4-5 years, at which point Luongo will already be 40 or 41. It will probably be too late for Montembeault to be the answer to the Luongo problem if he can solve it at all.

Final Thoughts

The Panthers are going to have a big problem on their hands once Roberto Luongo gets old and his performance drops. This problem seems far away, and it many ways it is. However, due to the nature of developing goalies (it takes a while) and how unpredictable the development process can be for goalies, the Panthers actually have a fairly pressing matter on their hands. I’m sure it’s something that Dale Tallon was aware of the second he traded for Luongo, but it is nonetheless an enormous red flag for the Panthers.

I don’t know which goalies will emerge as starter candidates via free agency by the time that Luongo is too old to start, but I am certain that the Panthers best bet is to get their next starter via free agency or trade rather than by good old fashioned player development. Unless the Cats draft a prodigious young goaltender, they will have to dip into the free agency pool to find their replacement.