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The team was able to use large amounts of data from sources such as satellites to model where nature was providing those benefits, and where people needed them and weren’t getting them.

It then projected the consequences of future climate change on those benefits.

“It gets at what’s the contribution of nature,” said Bennett. “Where is this important to people?”

The research found that if nothing is done to further mitigate climate change, up to 4.5 billion people by 2050 will face the possibility of water contaminated by chemicals such as nitrogen from agricultural runoff. It also concluded that five billion people might have to deal with crop losses as a result of pollination failure.

About 500 million face coastal consequences, the report says.

But while shoreline risks are spread evenly throughout the globe, the paper concludes the other threats aren’t.

“Where we see the greatest need, we also see declining ability to meet those needs,” said Bennett.

“We see many more people who are at higher risk of water pollution, coastal storms, crops that aren’t pollinated to their fullest extent. That ends up playing out a lot more in developing countries than in developed countries.”

The report says Africa and South Asia are likely to be the most threatened. Well over half the population there could face higher than average risks, it says.

That may seem far away, but it’s not, said Bennett.

“You don’t have to look far before you think, ‘OK, if Bangladesh floods, now you’ve got hundreds of millions of climate refugees leaving Bangladesh and going where?’