Iowa Poll: O'Malley struggles, despite working Iowa hard

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley has had his feet on the ground in Iowa more often than either of his two Democratic rivals, but he can’t get any traction.

The new Iowa Poll shows O’Malley continues to struggle. Just 4 percent of likely Democratic caucus participants say he’s their first choice. Although that’s double what O’Malley drew in October, Bernie Sanders has nearly 10 times as much support, and Hillary Clinton has 12 times as much.

O’Malley is a polished speaker who projects a populist message. He also is a hard-working campaigner. He has spent 47 days campaigning in Iowa, according to The Des Moines Register’s online “candidate tracker,” compared with 39 for Sanders and 31 for Clinton. On average, O'Malley has also appeared at more events per day.

Iowa Poll participant Betty Rae Potts, who lives near Ottumwa, is one of the few Iowans planning to caucus for O’Malley. She said she likes his experience as Maryland governor and Baltimore mayor. He cites impressive accomplishments on the environment, education and gun control, and he offers specific proposals, she said.

Potts has seen O’Malley speak twice, and he's charmed crowds by playing his guitar and singing.

“He’s very personable. I just think he’s a very good candidate,” she said. If he doesn’t gain enough support at her caucus to be considered “viable,” she’ll probably switch her support to Clinton.

If O’Malley doesn’t become the Democratic nominee, she hopes he’ll run again, as some other candidates have done. “Part of it is, you just need to get your name out there,” she said.

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National Democratic strategist David Axelrod said O’Malley hoped to be the populist alternative to Clinton, but Sanders beat him to that spot.

“I don’t think this is a reflection on him, as much as there’s just no room at the inn,” Axelrod said of O’Malley’s disappointing poll numbers. “He’s a smart and talented guy. But for whatever reason, no matter how often he puts down the bowl, people aren’t eating the dog food.”

Strategist Chris Kofinis said O’Malley has been touting his competence and executive experience, but the Iowa caucuses tend to be won with passionate messages.

Kofinis said O’Malley is highly regarded in Democratic circles, but he’s unlikely to catch fire.

“If you run as hard as he has, and you aren’t able to break 4 percent, Iowans are telling you something,” he said.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Dec. 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 2,635 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.