Bills vs. Colts

Bills

The Buffalo Bills are entering week 7 coming off a 20-13 loss that came at the hands of the Houston Texans last week, one in which they racked up a total of 229 yards on offense. This lack of offense isn’t a new trend either, as lead RB LeSean McCoy is averaging only 40 rushing yards per game, starting QBs are averaging 153 yards passing per game, and the top WR Zay Jones is averaging just 33 yards per game. Each week provides different situations and new opportunities though so let’s take a look at the fantasy relevant information you need to know about regarding the Buffalo Bills this week:

Rookie QB Josh Allen is out with an elbow injury, what can we expect with veteran QB Derek Anderson starting this week?

With 1st round Rookie QB Josh Allen injured and out for this week, veteran QB Derek Anderson is slated to start this week against the Indianapolis Colts. Derek Anderson was last legitimately fantasy relevant back in 2007, yes 11 years ago, when he was the starting QB for the Cleveland Browns and threw for 3,787 yards and 29 TDs while making 15 starts. Anderson has been a backup QB behind Cam Newton for the Carolina Panthers the last 7 seasons, and was recently signed by the Bills just 2 weeks ago as veteran depth but is now being thrust into the starting role.

Expectations should obviously be low for Anderson this week, he’s new to the offense and doesn’t have a great supporting cast around him. The offensive line has been giving out sacks like Halloween Candy (24 sacks allowed which ranks 3rd worst) and the receiving group has struggled to create separation and get open to catch the ball. Now interestingly, QB Josh Allen actually has been given the most time to throw in the NFL among QBs according to Next Gen Stats, so some of the sack issues may be on him rather than the offensive line. This could be a tough matchup against a Colts unit that ranks 4th in the NFL in sacks with 19, and is currently ranked 8th in rush defense which could mean the Bills are forced to air it out and play into the Colts strengths. Anderson isn’t nearly as mobile as Allen in the pocket either at this point and so I would expect the Bills to utilize a short/quick passing game at times to keep Anderson upright.

With a new QB under centre this week, the Bills will need the RBs to step up and carry this offense. Can they and what will the touches breakdown look like?

RB LeSean McCoy had one of his best games of the season last week, rushing for 73 yards on 16 attempts (4.3 YPC AVG), while also catching 3 passes for 21 yards. He notably looked healthier as he moves further away from the rib injury he suffered in week 2, and his burst seems to be coming back too. McCoy is likely going to touch the ball early and often this week as a means of taking pressure off of QB Derek Anderson. I expect the Bills to pound the football, and utilize screen passes to put the team into as many “third and manageable” situations as possible—and the key to doing that is McCoy.

After only rushing 21 times for 85 yards over the course of the season’s first four games, McCoy has carried the ball 40 times for 158 yards over the last two contests. He has been targeted 21 times in the passing game, hauling in 13 passes on the season for an additional 85 yards. Expecting the Bills to feed McCoy is a good bet with one caveat: the Colts will be expecting this, as well and are talented up front. As mentioned above, the Colts rank 8th in rush defense according to Football Outsiders and have allowed just 3.7 yards per attempt. The good news is, McCoy is used to facing stacked boxes as he has faced 8+ defenders in the box 22.95% of the time.

The Bills other RB, Chris Ivory, is used to facing an even higher percentage of stacked boxes as his 37.25% mark of 8+ defenders in the box in the 5th highest in the NFL. He has failed to show efficiency this year with his runs as he has posted just a 2.5 YPC average (tied for last in the NFL), and the Bills have responded by giving him limited touches. He managed just 6 carries last week compared to McCoy’s 16 and a similar 70-30 spit on the touches favoring McCoy sounds about right again this week.

Will anyone from the receiving core step up with a new QB under centre?

QB Derek Anderson does have a familiar target at his disposal in Buffalo in WR Kelvin Benjamin who played together in Carolina. In three regular season games that Anderson started in Carolina with Benjamin also playing, Anderson threw 102 passes—30 of them went to Benjamin, and he caught 19 of them for a total of 266 yards and one touchdown. Anderson targeted Benjamin on 29% of his throws as a starter. He could be targeted heavily this week simply based on familiarity and comfort. Note that Benjamin hasn’t looked the part of a viable WR this year though and that starting him this week would be a desperation play imo. Benjamin continues to struggle to create separation with just a 1.8 avg yards of separation at target mark which ranks in a tie for 3rd worst in the NFL, and he’s put himself into constant contested catch situations which has resulted in a very inefficient 31.25% catch rate which ranks 2nd worst in the NFL.

WR Zay Jones caught his 1st TD pass of the year last week, but showed atypical inefficiency with just 3 receptions on 8 targets. The 8 targets is interesting as it suggests that he may be the new #1 WR in Buffalo. I’ve been pumping his tires seemingly all year as he has consistently shown strong efforts both in route running and run blocking while also showing off valuable receiving skills including separation skills (2.4 avg yards of separation at target which ranks ahead of names like Colts WR T.Y. Hilton, Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins, and Bengals WR A.J. Green) and catch efficiency (61.9% catch rate entering the week that has fallen to 55.17% after this week’s performance). If you’re desperate for potential WR help in a deeper league, Jones could have some sleeper appeal.

TE Charles Clay has looked better the last couple weeks, and he even led the team last week with 4 receptions. Those 4 receptions only led to 20 yards though and the Bills have not been utilizing him downfield much which takes away some of his viability for fantasy purposes. He’s best left on the wire or on your bench at this point.

How about that Bills D/ST unit?

Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck throws the ball a whole lot. The Buffalo Bills force a whole lot of turnovers, and they also sack the quarterback a lot. Very quietly, the Bills D/ST has climbed into a dominant unit and their success coincides with Head Coach Sean McDermott taking over the play calling duties at half time in week 2 from Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier. They have put up at least 13 points in 3 of the last 4 weeks, and currently rank top 10 in both pass and rush defense according to Football Outsiders. If you’re looking for a D/ST unit to pick up off the wire, the Bills are a great option!

Boom: LeSean McCoy

Bust: Kelvin Benjamin

Sleeper: Bills D/ST

-Adam Garland

Colts

Indianapolis has settled into a disturbing trend of falling behind early before relying almost exclusively on Andrew Luck to lead the team back into a losing, but competitive, effort. Luck’s assortment of receivers from the Salvation Army while his undersized, unable to make a play on the ball in the back of the end zone number one T.Y. Hilton has been absent with a hamstring injury. This week, things may be different. The team is getting healthier and the Colts should be able to control the pace against an equally inadequate Buffalo squad.

Can Andrew Luck keep it up?

The face of the franchise is averaging 375 yards with 11 total touchdowns over the past three weeks. His extreme stat lines come as a result of historic opportunity. Luck passed Drew Bledsoe’s record for most pass attempts through week six as Frank Reich is quick in defaulting to his star quarterback. Unfortunately, the extreme amount of pass attempts has resulted in 8 interceptions (second most in the league after Thursday night’s game). Indianapolis is getting healthier with Hilton returning to the field and the most complete arsenal to date (counting the tradeoff of Ryan Grant – out with an ankle injury – for Hilton as a plus). Eric Ebron remains a TE1 with ridiculous red zone targets and a healthy dose of targets underneath the safeties for continued production. It will be interesting to see how Chester Rogers is utilized with the return of Hilton. Luck was quick to turn to Rogers for necessary yardage, but Hilton has long been the weapon of choice.

Things may be pointing up for Indianapolis’ offense on paper, but on the field is one of the top passing defenses in the league. Buffalo is yet to allow a 300-yard passer (something Luck has done four times) and surrendered an average of 153 yards to AFC South quarterbacks this season. Receivers and tight ends alike have struggled to find space. The biggest threat to the Colts’ production this week will come in the matchup of Ebron versus linebackers and safeties. Ebron leads all tight ends with six touchdowns on the season while Buffalo has allowed only two – and just one reception over the past two weeks. Luck is due for at least some bit of regression, but steady work to a healthier bunch of receivers should aid in setting the tempo.

Will this backfield find consistent utility?

There are a number of questions facing this group of running backs:



Is Robert Turbin’s time as a Colt over?

He began the year suspended, ran just four times with a fumble in his two games back, before landing on the injury report this week (he is listed as out for Sunday).

Will Jordan Wilkins find his way back into the rotation?

The rookie from Ole Miss looked strong in the preseason and on a couple of early season opportunities as a short-yardage back. Turbin’s absence opens some window, but Marlon Mack is more likely to take those carries.

Speaking of Mack, can he play as more than a FLEX option?

Give it another week. Mack began Week 6 in a terrible fashion, tipping a pass that would go back for six. He recovered well, rushing a dozen times for 89 yards before the offense went completely pass heavy in the fourth. Buffalo’s run defense has more give than its pass defense, lending some potential to Mack. For overall value, he needs another week in the lineup to show what he can do.

What is Nyheim Hines’ floor?

The other rookie in this backfield flashed his ceiling for involvement over Weeks 4 and 5 when he totaled 19 carries and 16 receptions for a pair of scores. His production dipped a week ago with just three targets against the Jets, something that is unlikely to be repeated. Mack will force Hines into almost exclusive value in the passing game. Touchdown reliant given less opportunity, Hines looks to be nothing more than a bye week filler.

Where is Margus Hunt? And other defensive notes.

First quarter phenomenon Margus Hunt missed last week’s game and remains questionable for Sunday’s outing. After leading a surprising start for this defense with five sacks through three weeks, the Colts have regressed to what was expected – a lot of points and little resistance. The defense is against marred with a litany of injuries. Denico Autry and Clayton Geathers are both out against. Star rookie Darius Leonard did not practice Friday as he continues to nurse an ankle injury and cornerbacks Arthur Maulet and Chris Milton are questionable, but Milton seems more likely to play.

The value for his unit comes from the offensive struggles of Buffalo. Despite only allowing one defensive touchdown thus far, the Bills allow the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Three times they’ve allowed five sacks and four times they’ve thrown multiple interceptions. Derek Anderson has leapt into relevance due to Nathan Peterman’s remarkable inability to play the quarterback position. Expected to rely more heavily on the run, this average Colts’ unit will look to anchor the team towards a win. Despite allowing the 16th most yards, 3.7 yards per carry allowed ranks fourth in the league. A proper bye week fill, the Colts should at least play as a passable option.

-Michael Collins