Dumbass.fish prices short/medium term options by estimating the PDF ( probability density function ) of the underlying equity and the integrating the option payoff function over that PDF. The resulting predictions are not authoritative (predicting the future is always hairy) but represent a fair numerical model of future behavior, divorced from as many assumptions as possible.

How Dumbass.fish Works

Dumbass.fish constructs a model of the PDF of the daily log-price movements of an equity based on the recent historical movements of the equity. This means that we're modeling variance and estimating payoff under that variance model rather than predicting whether an equity is going to go up or down.