CLEVELAND, Ohio -- I believe the Browns will draft Baker Mayfield at No. 1 overall tonight and that it's not a smokescreen.

At one point, the Browns narrowed the field to Mayfield and Josh Allen, and now I firmly believe Mayfield will be the pick shortly after 8 p.m. in the 2018 NFL Draft.

I do not buy, as some have speculated, that the Mayfield buzz is designed to bait the Jets or another team into trading up to No. 1. Based on conversations with multiple people around the league who are closely connected with the quarterbacks, I believe the Browns genuinely like Mayfield, 23, and believe he can be their quarterback of the future.

Browns GM John Dorsey has liked Mayfield since he scouted him thoroughly last fall when Dorsey was out of work but hoping to get back into the league. At the Senior Bowl, a source told cleveland.com that Scot McCoughan, who was hired as a Browns draft consultant soon thereafter, was all over Mayfield and that he was talking up the Heisman Trophy winner to Dorsey.

But Dorsey didn't need much convincing. He had already seen at least half a dozen of Mayfield's games by then, and was pretty much sold. One of those was the game against Kansas, in which Mayfield grabbed his crotch towards the opposing players after they refused to shake his hand before the game.

In December, Dorsey told Peter King of Sports Illustrated, "I saw [Mayfield] at Kansas this year, in the OU-Kansas game. You're darn right he's a good quarterback, no matter how tall he is. Some would say he's too short, but I would ask you: How tall is Russell Wilson? How tall is Chase Daniel?"

My second tipoff that Dorsey was serious about Mayfield (6-0, 215) was at the Senior Bowl when I asked him about Mayfield's character, which some have likened to that of Johnny Manziel, minus the substance abuse issues. Dorsey jumped to defend the Oklahoma product.

"Are there character concerns about him?'' Dorsey asked cleveland.com and another local media outlet. "You guys create a narrative that you try to portray him as one.''

Reminded that Mayfield had some well-documented incidents, such as an arrest for public intoxication, disorderly conduct and fleeing and resisting arrest, Dorsey didn't back down.

"Every young man will make a mistake in his life, I bet you,'' he said. "And I think he's very remorseful of that mistake and I think he's moved forward from that, and he's trying to make himself a better person, going through the process.''

He indicated that the crotch-grabbing incident wasn't a dealbreaker, and more a sign of Mayfield's passion for the game and fiery nature.

"Well, he made the fans of Kansas upset, I can tell you that,'' Dorsey said.

McCloughan, in a radio interview in February for On the Cecil & Pritchard show on 104.3 The Fan, said Mayfield was his man and reminded him of Brett Favre, with whom he had spent six years in Green Bay.

"I was lucky enough to have been around Favre, and I've gotten to know Baker pretty well just by watching him," McCloughan said. "There's some off-field stuff, but nothing too hairy. College kids are college kids. It's not like he's doing anything really bad.

"But he is a competitive guy. He wears it on his sleeve from the standpoint of emotions. He plays with strength throughout his body, and the fact that he's just a football player -- it's impressive. It's a really good class this year coming out in the draft for quarterbacks. But I know this, if I was going to play one game tomorrow, he'd be my guy -- hands down."

The remarks expanded on McCloughan's first profession of love for Mayfield on the Doug Gottlieb Show on Fox Sports radio in October.

"He reminds me of a shorter version of Brett Favre," McCloughan said then. "Tough guy. He can throw it. And he's very confident, and he's not afraid whatsoever, whatsoever. He's a battler. I know saying Brett Favre's a big name, and I was around him for a while, but this guy has talent."

McCloughan was also involved in drafting Russell Wilson and the Browns signed similar-sized Tyrod Taylor to keep the seat warm until Mayfield is ready.

During his pre-draft press conference last week, Dorsey once again blamed the media for Mayfield's "bad boy'' image.

"Well, you guys always try to create the narrative of this guy of that he's like something he's not. We said that back at the Senior Bowl. Just meeting with him, he is a pleasant fella. He is pretty sharp. He is fine. I have no problems with him."

Coach Hue Jackson also raved about Mayfield's leadership ability at the NFL Meetings last month.

"No doubt, he is (still legitimately in the mix at No 1),'' said Jackson. "I think he's outstanding. I have a different appreciation for Baker. Spending that time with him, what a leader, tremendous person. He is important in the community. I think he's important to his teammates. I kind of feel like he's the Pied Piper of Oklahoma football.''

Jackson was particularly impressed by what he saw at Oklahoma when the Browns traveled there Thursday to work out Mayfield privately.

"I will share this with you -- when we walked into the building, he made this sound. He just kind of came out of nowhere. He kind of went, 'Hee, hee!' And all the players in the building started going, 'Hee, hee!' And here they go. It's the most unbelievable thing I've ever seen,'' said Jackson. "That shows you something about what he means to young men and how he leads them. And that's who Baker Mayfield is."

And in a few hours, I believe he will be the Browns' QB of the future.