RedQueenRace Jul 26, 2018

The odds of it making it may be higher than you think.

The SPX has 3 gaps remaining. One is at the 2872.87 ATH it closed at on January 26th. It gapped down the following Monday, followed by a huge gap down on Tuesday, which left a partial (from the previous close) gap from 2853.53 and a full (from the previous low) gap from 2851.48.

I have figured the market would make a serious attempt to close all these gaps. Yesterday it made a huge run at the 2851.48 gap but fell short. It was likely to pull back (gap resistance) before attempting to close it, especially after a big run like that, and FB blowing up is certainly helping but probably won't stop it from trying again and again until it eventually gets it. If Seeking Alpha is any indication, the world sees this FB disaster as a huge buying opportunity. If it's buy-the-dip for big money as well, when it rallies back that will be used to help continue the technical gap-fill drive.

If fills the next 2 gaps, sights will be set on the ATH. But folks need to consider that this market is in a race against time versus the Fed tightening and liquidity drain (now $40 billion / month) and even if it does hit the ATH and make a new one it does not necessarily mean it is "game on" again. The market can do some pretty amazing stuff but it can't fight the Fed forever.