MADISON, Wis. - Let me start this story by saying: I am not even close to an expert on politics.

I am a meteorologist who can (hopefully) tell you what the weather will be like for the next week or so. I think the most political statement I've made in the last few months is, "I am pro candy corn."

But I also like history, climatology and having fun. So, with that in mind, let's talk politics!

However, I did find this tidbit interesting: If rain has fallen on #ElectionDay and high temps were above average, GOP has won both times. If it's rained and high temps were below average, Dems have won both times. #ElectionDay2018 has been rainy with below avg temps in Madison. — Dave Caulfield (@DaveCaulfield_) November 6, 2018

I wanted to see if there was any correlation between the weather on Election Day in Madison and the political party that won the governor's race that particular year. I looked at weather data for the last 10 midterm election days, starting in 1978.

Here are those statistics:



Here are the political parties of last 10 winning governors:

2014: Republican

2010: Republican

2006: Democrat

2002: Democrat

1998: Republican

1994: Republican

1990: Republican

1986: Republican

1982: Democrat

1978: Republican

When you combine all of this information, it might be a bit overwhelming. Here are the basics:

High temperatures have been at or above average four times, and below average six times

It has rained four times and snowed once on midterm Election Day in Madison. Five times, southern Wisconsin has been dry

Republicans have won more on both above average temperature days (3/4) and below average temperature days (4/6)

Republicans have won more on dry days (4/5) and days with precipitation (3/5)

Democrats have won both times low temperatures have been in the 30s (2002/1982)

There is not much of a correlation between the winning party and the weather, at least at first glance. However, when you combine some of this information, it becomes a bit more interesting.

On the days with rain and above normal highs, Republicans have won both times (2014/1994)

On the days with rain and below normal highs, Democrats have won both times (2002/1982)

So, what does all of this mean?

The answer is: nothing! This is a very small sample size, and we would need a lot more data to make any sort of scientific conclusion or accurate prediction. However, I hope you had fun looking at the numbers with me!

However, just for fun: Election Day 2018 has been rainy with below normal high temperatures.