It’s that time of year when I should be grading papers, so instead I decide to write a blog post. Since the MLS season ended yesterday with the penalty shoot-out victory of the Seattle Sounders, I was looking on twitter to see how many people watched the big game (about 1.3 million according to Sports TV Ratings) and then I thought, “what about twitter followers”? It’s still unclear what role social media will play in the economics of professional sports, but it clearly will play a role, and it also gives us a new way to look at popularity.

So I looked up the number of twitter followers for each of the official sites of the MLS teams that played this season and produced the following Table:

team Twitter followers (000) franchise age Last won MLS Cup LA Galaxy 309 21 2014 Seattle Sounders FC 291 8 2016 Orlando City SC 282 2 New York City FC 277 2 Toronto FC 271 10 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 271 6 Sporting Kansas City 250 21 2013 Houston Dynamo 250 11 2007 Montreal Impact 238 5 Portland Timbers 200 6 2015 New York Red Bulls 169 21 San Jose Earthquakes 154 21 2003 Columbus Crew SC 123 21 2008 FC Dallas 113 21 Real Salt Lake 111 12 2009 D.C. United 110 21 2004 Chicago Fire 108 19 1998 Philadelphia Union 96 7 New England Revolution 82 21 Colorado Rapids 76 21 2010

The total number of followers is 3.8 million, the average is 189k and the ratio highest to lowest is 4x.

Several things struck me as potentially interesting. I wouldn’t want to read to much into the number for any one team, since much also depends on how well run the feed is. But it does seems striking that the top four either won the MLS Cup or joined the league recently. It’s also striking that only two of the founding franchises are in the top half of the table. I guess the point is that social media is driven by news, not history.

I thought of two obvious comparisons. First. here’s the equivalent table for the Premier League:

club Twitter followers (000) Man United 9460 Arsenal 8600 Chelsea 7620 Liverpool 6500 Man. City 3770 Tottenham 1720 West Ham 1020 Everton 984 Leicester City 876 Southampton 662 Swansea City 644 Stoke City 632 Sunderland 617 West Brom 533 Crystal Palace 451 Hull City 305 Watford 265 Bournemouth 230 Burnley FC 205 Middlesbrough 181

The total is 45 million and the average is 2.3 million, while the ratio of highest to lowest is 52x. This repeats a story that I have told many times: English soccer is characterized by huge inequality which doesn’t seem to diminish interest in the product (contrary to a large literature on the economics of sport that says that it will).

The top 5 teams are all globally recognized names, and again it seems clear that history does not count for that much. Everton and Burnley have just as much history as Manchester City and Chelsea, but not the recent record of success. I would also wager that one year ago Leicester’s follower numbers were lower than Burnley’s, but were boosted by their remarkable Premier League success.

For a second comparison I looked at the NFL. Here’s the table:

Franchise Twitter followers (000) New England Patriots 2750 Dallas Cowboys 2240 Denver Broncos 1970 Carolina Panthers 1900 Pittsburgh Steelers 1600 Seattle Seahawks 1560 Green Bay Packers 1450 Philadelphia Eagles 1410 San Francisco 49ers 1410 Chicago Bears 1260 New York Giants 1250 Houston Texans 1170 New York Jets 1040 Atlanta Falcons 1030 New Orleans Saints 995 Detroit Lions 965 Baltimore Ravens 948 Washington Redskins 832 Oakland Raiders 829 Cleveland Browns 761 Minnesota Vikings 757 Kansas City Chiefs 729 Miami Dolphins 713 Indianapolis Colts 710 Buffalo Bills 635 Cincinnati Bengals 630 San Diego Chargers 606 Arizona Cardinals 582 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 531 Tennessee Titans 490 Los Angeles Rams 442 Jacksonville Jaguars 397

The total is 35 million, the average is 1.1 million, and the ratio of the highest to lowest is 5.7x. This illustrates the way in which the more egalitarian NFL dominates the US market while the biggest Premier League clubs reach a much larger international market.

The MLS looks more like a scaled down version of the NFL than the Premier League, which is exactly what the owners intend. To be successful MLS will need to grow its footprint in the US market primarily, since it tends to be the standout teams that generate an international following (Barca and Real Madrid have even bigger twitter followings).

The social media story could be spun positively or negatively for MLS. The positive spin is this: their twitter presence is over 10% of the NFL’s when their TV rights income is around 1% ($7 billion per year for the NFL against a $90 million US soccer contract that includes national team and other games). If the social media buzz could be converted into viewers, then there is potential there.

The negative spin is that these numbers are not large enough to develop into a genuine major league market. MLS is drowning in an overcrowded sports media market which is focused on watching the very best that each sport has to offer.

Note to self: remember to update these figures in one year’s time and see how things are changing.