The lion may be losing its position as king of the savannah.

Almost all large populations of the animal in West and Central Africa are declining, and may halve within 20 years. The situation is similar in East Africa.

But there is a glimmer of hope: lion populations in Southern Africa are stable or increasing. This is encouraging because it means that it might be possible to reverse the downward trends seen in East and West Africa, says Hans Bauer of the University of Oxford’s Wildlife Conservation Research Unit.


Bauer and his colleagues analysed existing data on populations in different parts of Africa, identifying declines across much of the continent and then modelling future trends.

There are about 20,000 lions left in the wild – down from more than 200,000 a century ago. But it is hard to get reliable numbers of lion populations, says Stephanie Dolrenry of the conservation charity Lion Guardians.

The three main explanations for this decline are a loss of habitat caused by a rise in the human population, the depletion of prey through hunting, and conflict with humans who perceive lions as a threat to their livestock, says Bauer.

These results yield yet another scientific indication of how imperiled lions are, says Laly Lichtenfeld from the conservation organisation The African People & Wildlife Fund. Yet, she adds, there is little international awareness or recognition that an African icon of the wild is at risk.

Fenced communities

But in Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe, where most lions live in fenced reserves that are heavily managed, lion populations have been growing. This is both good and bad, says Bauer.

Lions in these reserves are provided with extensive vet care and even extra prey. But what this means, says Bauer, is that in 20 years we will be mostly left with lions living in artificial conditions rather than roaming in true wilderness. An additional concern is that fencing may also affect other species beyond lions, says Lichtenfeld.

Bauer believes that artificial management should be combined with more traditional conservation efforts to ensure lion survival in a more natural environment.

Dolrenry agrees. Conservation efforts should include maintaining the lion habitats and working with local communities outside of fenced areas to teach them to tolerate living with wildlife and so minimize the number of lions killed, she says.

“We know very well what we need to do to save the lions,” Bauer says, but the problem is lack of resources and political will. “What we need now is implementation,” he adds.

This, he says, would not only save the lions, but also the biodiversity around them.

This is because lions play a key part in the ecosystem, as a so-called keystone species. The loss of lions has a knock-on effect on other organisms in their environment, such as the zebras they prey on and plants that prey eat, says Bauer.

Journal reference: PNAS, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1500664112

Read more: “Rewilding: Bring in the big beasts to fix ecosystems”

Read more: “Last of the lions”

Image credit: Chris Johns/National Geographic Creative