When the subject of National Women’s Soccer League expansion is raised by league observers (which is quite often), it’s usually in the context of which Major League Soccer owner is next poised to add a women’s professional team to their portfolio. It’s an obvious inference, as America’s largest domestic soccer clubs seemed naturally situated to parlay their resources into the women’s game. Three new teams have joined the NWSL since its 2013 inaugural season, all MLS-affiliated clubs: the Houston Dash, Orlando Pride and Utah Royals. Two teams have completed folded, both independently owned clubs: the Boston Breakers and FC Kansas City.

And then there’s the Western New York Flash, the NWSL mainstay that was sold in early 2017 to Steve Malik, then the owner of the North Carolina FC in the second division North American Soccer League (NCFC is now part of the second division United Soccer League). Malik relocated and rebranded the Flash to the North Carolina Courage, and he is the only NWSL owner concurrently operating a non-MLS men’s pro team, an experiment now reaching the end of its second year.

When Malik, also the chair of the newly formed NWSL Executive Committee, recently appeared on the Inverted Triangle Soccer Podcast, he was asked about recent rumors concerning a possible future partnership between the NWSL and USL. Malik’s response reframed the query from league-to-league cooperation to the issue of NWSL expansion.

“I just came from the USL meetings,” Malik said earlier this month. “Are there USL clubs that NWSL is talking to? Absolutely. There are some great fits where, if you build a 10,000- to 12,000-seat stadium in an urban area in a top 40 or top 50 market, particularly one that may not have Major League Soccer. If you own that stadium, do you want some dates? Yeah, you want some dates.”

Malik’s curiously specific answer postulates another avenue contemplated for NWSL expansion. Any existing men’s pro team operation, MLS or otherwise, is able to share staff and pool overhead costs when adding a NWSL team, cushioning the financial impact fully born by independently owned NWSL clubs. With the NWSL’s current team salary cap of $350,000, the ratio of a NWSL team’s payroll to the overall budget of an MLS club is far smaller than to a USL club. However, there are numeric and monetary benefits that could make NWSL expansion a comparatively tempting option for some lower division men’s team owners, chiefly in USL.

As Malik suggests, soccer clubs with available and suitable stadia often covet additional dates to utilize, and thereby monetize, their facilities. That said, the costs – utilities, staffing, security, and possibly rent –associated with operating a 18,000 to 20,000 capacity MLS stadium for NWSL matches is greater than the operational costs of 8,000 to 12,000 seat facilities utilized by some USL teams.

There are currently four NWSL teams co-owned by MLS team owners: the Houston Dash, Orlando Pride, Portland Thorns and Utah Royals. In 2017, the Pride accounted for just 14.8 percent of the aggregate regular season attendance with Orlando City SC. The Dash accounted for 15.5 percent of the aggregate regular attendance with the Houston Dynamo. Even the Thorns, the perennial NWSL attendance leader by a wide margin, accounted for 37 percent of the aggregate regular season attendance with the Portland Timbers. Thus far in their 2018 inaugural season, the Royals have accounted for 28.5 percent of the aggregate regular season attendance with Real Salt Lake.

By contrast, last year the NC Courage accounted for 42 percent of the aggregate regular season attendance with North Carolina FC. Thus far in 2018, the Courage actually comprises 53 percent of the club’s aggregate attendance. In 2016, North Carolina FC (then the Carolina RailHawks) drew a total regular season attendance of 80,923, its highest gate in nearly a decade. In 2017, NCFC’s attendance dropped by over 11 percent from the previous year, but thanks to the Courage, the club’s aggregate attendance rose to 124,211, a yearly increase of 53 percent.

These attendance increases represent a larger number – and larger percentage – of fans purchasing tickets, consuming concessions, buying merchandise and viewing stadium signage and other ad sponsors. According to public records, there were requisite increases in stadium rent and other costs associated with adding dates for the Courage. But, North Carolina FC also realized a larger amount of naming rights revenue to WakeMed Soccer Park that the club has long shared evenly with the Town of Cary. From 2012 through 2017, WakeMed Health and Hospitals paid $315,000 per year for naming rights to the soccer park, yielding NCFC $157,500. In 2018, a year after the Courage arrived in Cary, the Town of Cary entered a new three-year naming rights agreement whereby WakeMed paid $450,000 in 2018, with conditional escalator increases to $500,000 in 2019 and $550,000 in 2020. North Carolina FC will still receive half of those annual naming rights fees.

Moreover, last year NCFC negotiated a separate sponsorship agreement for the main stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park with the Sahlen Packing Company, a corporation founded by the former owners of the Western New York Flash. Per that sponsorship agreement, NCFC will receive $400,000 over five years, while the Town of Cary will receive $100,000 over that span.

Of course, it helps to have a team enjoying the on-field success of the Courage, which recently claimed its second consecutive NWSL Shield. Still, the on-and-off-field success of Malik’s foray into NWSL provides a template for other interested USL owners.

Malik’s quote again provides a few factors in surmising a list of possible USL candidates for NWSL expansion, including stadium and market size. The USL club should not only exercise some control over their stadium but also have sufficient open dates to accommodate a NWSL home season. That criteria could eliminate many USL clubs sharing space with minor league baseball teams. And, of course, the owners should be stable and well-heeled enough to absorb the added expense of a new pro soccer team, even one with institutional cost controls like NWSL.

Even if more USL teams seek NWSL expansion, it’s not likely to happen for 2019. But there are several potential candidates for 2020 and beyond [FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC are not being considered for the purposes of this article, since both teams will be part of MLS by 2020]:

Louisville City FC: Louisville City has consistently ranked among the top three in USL attendance annually since the team’s 2014 debut, and the club recently broke ground on a new 11,000-seat soccer stadium, due to open in 2020. Louisville is a top 45 metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Amanda Duffy, NWSL’s current managing director of operations, is the former president of Louisville City.

San Antonio FC: Even with their MLS hopes presently dashed, Spurs Sports and Entertainment remains the long-term tenant of the soccer-specific, 8,500-seat Toyota Field. San Antonio is a top 25 MSA, and the team has ranked at or near the top five in USL attendance since joining the league in 2016. San Antonio FC Managing Director Tim Holt is the former president of USL, where Duffy was his colleague when she was director of USL PRO operations and senior director of the USL’s W-League.

Sacramento Republic FC: Club owner Kevin Nagle remains firmly focused on his pending MLS expansion bid. Should that effort remain unrequited, Sacramento Republic is a USL team with an average attendance of over 11,000 in each of its five USL seasons at Papa Murphy’s Park, a 11,000-plus soccer-specific facility built in 2014 for the Republic’s arrival. Sacramento is a top 30 MSA, and Nagle once expressed eager interest in adding a NWSL team.

Phoenix Rising FC: Phoenix is nearly a top 10 MSA, and the club’s ownership has deep pockets, made deeper in conjunction with their MLS expansion push. The Phoenix Rising FC Soccer Complex, a modular stadium erected last year near Tempe, might need some expansion beyond its current 6,200 capacity, perhaps in conjunction with eventual plans to build a permanent stadium on the same site.

Hartford Athletic: It’s taken so long for a pro soccer team to return to Hartford that it's probably presumptuous to start talking about NWSL expansion. But Hartford is a top 50 MSA and top 30 Nielsen TV market with a rich soccer history, and Hartford Sports Group, owners of the USL team due to kick off in 2019, are investing millions of dollars into their men’s team startup. Moreover, renovations are set to begin to Dillon Stadium, where Hartford Sports has been awarded a 20-year lease that notably includes 40 priority scheduling dates in 2019 with an option of 20 additional dates in subsequent years. Two possible problems in the current renovation plan are Dillon’s reduced 6,000-seat capacity and the stadium’s new artificial turf field, although the type of turf being utilized could allay that concern.