Is the fat lady about to sing for Stephen Harper? Has the Teflon Tory had his last hurrah?

Well, if Harper is to be believed, he will not continue to serve either as prime minister or Conservative party leader if he fails to achieve a majority government on Monday — a prospect that now seems unlikely (you just never know with Stephen Harper).

I think we can safely say now that this campaign was not a roaring success for the Conservatives. Kids running for student council president could do better. Why did Harper’s campaign team use all their best ads before the final two weeks? Who decided it was a good idea to put Harper in front of a camera to assure voters that “this campaign is not about me”? For heaven’s sake, who else has it been about? This has been a solo act from the start, with Harper sidelining local candidates and cabinet ministers alike and erasing the very word ‘Conservative’ from his podium signs. Now he wants us to believe he just can’t fathom how it all got so personal.

Such are the foisted fictions of political life. Ironically, if Harper loses, his own wedge issue will be partially to blame. By hitting the niqab button repeatedly, Harper torpedoed the NDP’s fortunes in Quebec, pushing the ABC vote towards Trudeau’s Liberals. Had he left well enough alone, the NDP might still look to anti-Harper voters like a legitimate player, allowing Conservatives to exploit vote splits and come up the middle.

So what becomes of the Harper Party once Harper isn’t leading it? Prime ministers aren’t directly elected the way U.S. presidents are, but — ironically — they shape their parties in a far more profound way. Because of the separation of the executive and legislative powers in the U.S. system, party leaders emerge in the Senate and House of Representatives.

Harper’s influence and imprint upon the party have been of such depth that it’s very hard to separate the party from its leader — or to even define the party in his absence. Harper’s influence and imprint upon the party have been of such depth that it’s very hard to separate the party from its leader — or to even define the party in his absence.

Not so much in Canada — and not at all under Harper, who jealously guarded not only the leadership of the party but the statements and thoughts of everyone in his caucus through the everyday intrusions of his paladins in the PMO.

As a former Conservative staffer, I can tell you that the post-2003 party is at root a coalition — sometimes loose, sometimes tight — of social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, libertarians and Red Tories. At various times, one or more of these groups gets told to keep its mouth shut in the interests of political expediency. Harper has espoused all of these political inclinations at one point or another, but his influence and imprint upon the party have been of such depth that it’s very hard to separate the party from its leader — or to even define the party in his absence.

Is there an heir apparent? Prior to the current election, most of Harper’s high-profile cabinet ministers opted not to run again. The exception was Defence Minister Jason Kenney.

Jason Kenney is the heir apparent. He has excelled in every ministry entrusted to him, doggedly pursued all files dropped in his lap, left no tremor of misjudgment or scandal — and, somehow, he’s managed to avoid challenging Harper directly. He is fluently bilingual, brilliantly educated and a deft debater in the Jesuit tradition.

He’s also from Calgary, and a principled social conservative who has supported pro-life legislation; these facts undoubtedly will be used against him by liberals in the national media.

Former Justice Minister Peter MacKay is also waiting in the wings. MacKay is no Red Tory, despite being from the Red Tory heartland of Nova Scotia. Largely because of his regular contact with Canadian Armed Forces rank and file, he was probably the most beloved defence minister in modern history; a few negative stories in the national media did not make a dent in that popularity.

Then there’s former Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird. As a social small-l liberal and strong fiscal conservative, Baird may well represent where the party is going. One note of caution: when Baird was interviewed on Ottawa station CFRA after his resignation from cabinet, he said he was supporting Hillary Clinton for U.S. president. Conservatives who don’t want Baird as their next leader will be reminding people of that interview.

Strong leaders often leave wastelands behind them when they leave political office. When Stephen Harper leaves, he’ll leave not a wasteland, but a very uncertain political field — and a very ambiguous conservative movement.

David Krayden was raised on Vancouver Island and has written extensively on Western political issues over the years. He was a columnist for the Calgary Herald and host of Calgary’s Liberty Today radio program; more recently he worked as an editor for Sun News. Krayden was a public affairs officer in the Royal Canadian Air Force and spent almost a decade on Parliament Hill as a communications staffer. @DavidKrayden

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