President Donald Trump boards Air Force One for travel to New York from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S. July 28, 2017. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Trouble at the pump

Rising oil prices are starting to hit Trump where it hurts: the gasoline pump. U.S. gasoline futures are outpacing the oil price rally, surging 44 percent this year. Analysts say there are several reasons for that, but the bottom line is Americans are paying more to fill up their gas tanks. The national average gas price has risen 35 cents since January and now sits at $2.58 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. The run-up has been particularly pronounced in the Midwest, with Michigan's price surging 75 cents and costs in Ohio and Illinois up more than 60 cents. "It's been nothing short of madness at the pumps since early January with retail gasoline prices on a tear, especially in the Great Lakes," Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a briefing on Wednesday. "The news doesn't get much better either. Motorists can expect the jumps at the pump to continue into April, and perhaps even lasting up to Memorial Day, when the transition to summer gasoline and refinery maintenance have generally wrapped up."

OPEC pushes back

As gasoline prices bubble up, Trump's opportunities to influence OPEC policy suddenly narrowed this week. On Monday, a committee of OPEC members and their allies canceled an April meeting meant to review their deal to keep 1.2 million barrels per day off the market. The move leaves the output curbs in place until June, when the full group next meets. Meanwhile, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo has been trying to improve the group's image among Americans, including by pushing back on a bill meant to hobble the organization at last week's CERAWeek by IHS Markit conference in Houston.

The No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act, or NOPEC, would allow the Justice Department to sue OPEC members for coordinating production, the group's primarily lever for adjusting oil supply and prices. "Not only is OPEC showing a willingness to ignore the White House's renewed call to open the taps, but the messaging from the organization is more assertive in saying that US shale producers would be a prime casualty of the NOPEC bill that is being considered by Congress," Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a research note on Wednesday. "In our view, economic self-interest will continue to trump satisfying Washington and thus, we do not see any extraordinary OPEC production policy changes in the immediate offing."