In Ohio, Democratic U.S. Senator Sen. Sherrod Brown may ride Trump country to re-election

Scott Wartman | Cincinnati Enquirer

Show Caption Hide Caption Watch: Sherrod Brown leading in Scioto County that was previously Trump country Scioto County residents talk about the upcoming Senate race between Sherrod Brown and Jim Renacci.

PORTSMOUTH, Ohio - If you want to know this area's politics – and what it may foretell about this state's U.S. Senate race – David Liddle is a good indicator.

"I think I'm a Republican," Liddle said as he walked into a doctor's office in downtown Portsmouth this week. A few minutes later he reflected. "No wait, I might be a Democrat."

Liddle, 68, voted for President Trump. And he plans on voting for Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown this year.

In 2016 Ohio's rural areas, like Scioto County, helped deliver Ohio – and the presidency – to Trump.

But this year Republicans can't count on these same counties to deliver them Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, according to Enquirer interviews with voters and experts.

Trump country, it turns out, is also Brown country.

The senator won 17 Ohio counties in 2012 that Trump won in 2016. So far this year, Brown has a comfortable lead all across Ohio, according to an Enquirer/Suffolk University poll in June. The poll showed him ahead of his Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, 47 percent to 32 percent; other polls show a similar gap. Most prognosticators now give Brown the edge in the race.

Renacci, a northern Ohio businessman, has allied himself with Trump, courting his endorsement for over a year, even flying on Air Force One into Cincinnati with the president in March.

It may take more than Trump for Renacci to unseat Brown.

"Look at our town. It's falling down"

Trump's faded visage stares from a dusty window of a vacant Rent-2-Own building in downtown Portsmouth.

Trump won Appalachia's Scioto County by 37 percentage points in 2016. He promised to bring industry and jobs back to America.

A hastily scrawled message on a chalkboard invites passersby to take their picture with the president, an arrow pointing to the cardboard cut-out of Trump – behind the window – giving a thumbs up. No one was taking any photos last week.

Portsmouthians haven't lost hope he can turn it around, said supporter Joe Smith. Smith, 55, of West Portsmouth, supervises the maintenance of two high-rise apartment complexes in Portsmouth.

More: Ohio U.S. Senate race: Jim Renacci vs. Sherrod Brown is populist vs. populist

More: Donald Trump would demolish John Kasich head-to-head in Ohio, according to a new poll

Trump's "America First" slogan and hardline approach on trade appealed to a town that hemorrhaged jobs over a period of decades. Scioto County has consistently ranked in the top 10 among Ohio's 88 counties for unemployment the past 25 years, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"Look at our town," Smith said. "It's falling down. There's nothing here."

There's a new tariff in town

Tariffs are popular here.

Smith is a big fan of tariffs. As a result, Renacci – simply because of his support of Trump – has Smith's vote.

Renacci still has to win over many more of Smith's neighbors, who support Brown. Brown won Scioto County in 2012, 51 percent to 44 percent.

Another fan of tariffs? Brown. He's praised Trump's tariffs on steel, blaming "Chinese cheating" for shuttered Ohio steel plants. Portsmouth lost a lot of its shoe business to global trade in the 20th Century. More on that later.

Brown has the "secret sauce" as Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy told The Enquirer in May. He's a Democrat who can appeal to more conservative rural voters.

Brown seems pretty safe in these swing counties, agreed Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey.

In March, he traveled to Scioto County to talk at Shawnee State University in Portsmouth. He spent time in local restaurants and businesses talking to voters and didn't hear many people express a fondness for Trump. Hillary Clinton represented the establishment that had ignored them, he said. Brown will likely continue to do well in these areas with his casual style and brand of populism, Murray said.

"They have to feel you have their back," Murray said of Scioto Countians. "You look at Scioto County, that part of the state feels forgotten."

A difficult 50 years

It's been a difficult 50 years for Portsmouth, as it has for much of Appalachia, plagued with a steady exodus of residents.

Once a boomtown with steel plants and shoe factories, Portsmouth's population has declined from a peak of 42,000 in 1930 to 20,000 today, according to the U.S. Census.

Portsmouth once called itself the shoe capital of the world. At its height in the 1950s, the shoe factories employed about 4,000 people in Portsmouth, about 16 percent of the city's workforce by the Scioto County Historical Society's count.

But many of Portsmouth's factories closed in the 1970s as shoe companies moved overseas. A steel mill closed in the 1990s, putting 1,300 people out of work.

These closures weigh heavily on the minds of those who still live in Scioto County, especially when they go to the ballot box.

"We have to bring jobs back to America," said Doug Besco, 70, sitting outside an antique store in Portsmouth.

Antique stores seem to be one of the biggest industries now in Portsmouth, with five in one block along Second Street where Besco sat.

Besco lives in the smaller town of Wheelersburg, about 10 miles up the Ohio River in Scioto County. He supports Brown even though he tends to vote Republican. He didn't vote in the presidential election in 2016, though he thinks Trump is doing more good than he thought.

Trump's imposition of tariffs encourages him. He doesn't know if it'll bring more jobs here, but he gives the president credit for making an effort.

Factories, roller rinks gone but hope remains

Portsmouthians cling to the hope of better days ahead.

At Patties & Pints restaurant, Missy and Andy Sparks ate lunch last week and reminisced about the shoe factory, the steel plant, even a now-closed roller rink.

Andy Sparks, 24, works construction and still wore the yellow reflective vest from his latest project – building a bypass around the city of Portsmouth. While it provides work, the new highway, as its name suggests, will direct more people away from downtown.

Missy Sparks, 26, wore the blue scrubs from her work as an ER nurse.

The Sparks live in a house along the Ohio River in West Portsmouth, an unincorporated patch of land just outside Portsmouth.

"If you're not into hunting and fishing, there are not many things to do around here," Andy Sparks said.

Missy Sparks voted for Trump. Not because she liked him, but because she had "just never really been a fan" of Hillary Clinton.

Andy Sparks didn't like Trump or Clinton, so he didn't vote in the presidential race. He didn't feel any of them were for the working class.

They still don't know what to make of Trump. But they do like Brown. Renacci? Never heard of him.

"I'm for whoever supports unions," Andy Sparks said. "Brown was really good to us. I think he's for the working class."

For Brown, his re-election effort is more about the economy than Trump, his campaign manager Justin Barasky said.

Brown has supported the president on issues, such as tariffs, and spoke out against him on many other occasions, such as appointments of Attorney General Jeff Sessions and other cabinet members, Barasky said.

"Sherrod is clearly willing to work with the president when it's right for Ohio and speak out when it's wrong for Ohio," Barasky said. "It is not part of a political strategy."

Scioto is '100 percent on the map' for GOP

Renacci's campaign has acknowledged they have work to do in the rural counties.

"Scioto County is 100 percent on the map," said Renacci campaign spokeswoman Leslie Shedd. "We were talking about doing a visit to the southern part of the state around there soon. We're hoping in July."

Renacci struggled in the less populous areas during the May Primary against his Republican opponent, Cleveland-area businessman Mike Gibbons. Gibbons won 37 counties, cutting a wide swath of victories from Toledo and moving southeast through Columbus to the Appalachian foothills of southeastern Ohio.

Renacci eked out a victory in Scioto County by three percentage points, garnering 36 percent of the vote.

These areas need to get to know Renacci, Shedd said. Renacci's from northeastern Ohio and has been in public office since 2011. Voters in Scioto County have not had a chance to know him. But they will this fall, Shedd said.

When Renacci meets the people of Scioto County, he'll remind them of his support for the president, Shedd said. Renacci's campaign will describe Brown as an "obstructionist" to Trump's agenda, Shedd said.

There's some evidence this might work. Some voters in these swing counties who have voted for Brown before said they wouldn't vote for him again.

Mike Woody, a Republican voter from Fremont in the northern Ohio county of Sandusky, has voted for Brown in the past but won't vote for him again.

"He's a marionette and been disappointing," Woody said. "He says one thing and does another."

He said he believes Trump's performance will inspire "more independent" thinkers to the polls.

In Portsmouth, Joe Smith said "99 percent" of his friends love Trump and will vote Republican this fall.

Smith doesn't know much about Brown or Renacci, but Renacci will get his vote because of his support for Trump.

"If nobody is willing to take Trump's perspective on things, then I don't think they're for America," Smith said.

Gannett reporter Craig Shoup contributed to this report.