The State of the Program for January 17th 2014

This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.

In the News this Week:

Online PTQs to Return: Online PTQs will return in mid-March. Presumably, this means Wizards trusts the program – or maybe they just like risk. More details to follow.

MOCS Returns in its Classic Form: Wizards has announced the return of the MOCS. The last two seats for 2013 will be filled by make-up events, involving both preliminaries and finals, as before. Players will have their QPs for those seasons restored. The seat 1 preliminaries will run January 22-25, with the finals January 26. The seat 2 preliminaries will run January 29-31, with the finals February 1. After that, the MOCS will return in pretty much the same form it had when it was suspended. Details : Wizards has announced the return of the MOCS. The last two seats for 2013 will be filled by make-up events, involving both preliminaries and finals, as before. Players will have their QPs for those seasons restored. The seat 1 preliminaries will run January 22-25, with the finals January 26. The seat 2 preliminaries will run January 29-31, with the finals February 1. After that, the MOCS will return in pretty much the same form it had when it was suspended. Details here . Next month’s MOCS promo is Batterskull.

Online Release Events Back Almost to Normal: Wizards has announced details of the Back to Nix Prerelease and Release events. Much of this is the same as in the last couple events. The special avatar packs and seeded boosters are returning. The 16 player release events are being tweaked, again. You may remember that Wizards was concerned about too many grinders playing those events and slashed both entry and prize payout. That plan bombed – players were very disappointed with the events and both grinders and casual players stayed away. This time around, the entry fee has risen to two TIX higher than the M14 events, while prize payout for 3-1 has risen to three entire draft sets. That payout / entry fee ratio is not quite as good as M14, but it is really close. Probably close enough to get me to play in the release queues like I used to.

Born of the Gods Spoiler Season Begins: Preview cards for the next new set have started popping up all over the web. The visual spoiler, which contains all the officially spoiled cards, is Preview cards for the next new set have started popping up all over the web. The visual spoiler, which contains all the officially spoiled cards, is here . The mechanics are a mix of new and returning, as always:

· Inspired: Whenever ~this~ become untapped, you can pay something to get some benefit. For example, Whenever God-Favored General becomes untapped, you may pay 2W. If you do, put two 1/1 white Soldier enchantment creature tokens onto the battlefield. Interesting limited mechanic, given the tension between burning your mana in upkeep and keeping the mana up to play what you draw. So far, I have not seen a constructed worthy version (and, yes, I have seen the “new Dark Confidant.” It’s not that good.)

· Tribute: A new variant on the punisher mechanic. As the creature enters the battlefield, the opponent chooses between paying tribute (usually making the creature bigger), or giving it some other bonus(es).

· Multicolored Devotion: The gods this time around are two colors. They have devotion 7, and count each mana symbol that matches one of their colors once. Thus, Ephara, the UW god provides two devotion because of the U and W in its cost, while a Judges Familiar adds one, not two, devotion.

· Heroic, Scry and Bestow are back.

PureMTGO Expands Its Lineup: Here at PureMTGO.com, the crew has been working to ensure that you can see quality articles on a predictable basis. In addition, PureMTGO will make info and articles available on Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr and Reddit. JXC talks about all of that in Here at PureMTGO.com, the crew has been working to ensure that you can see quality articles on a predictable basis. In addition, PureMTGO will make info and articles available on Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr and Reddit. JXC talks about all of that in this article . Spoiler: State of the Program will continue to appear here every Friday.

Flashback Drafts Will Continue: Wizards has announced that flashback drafts will be coming back later this month. The next three weeks of flashbackiness (hey, I made a word!) are:

· Jan 22 - 29 Zendikar/Worldwake

· Jan 29 - Feb 5 Mirrodin/Darksteel/Fifth Dawn + Cube

· Feb 5 - 12 Invasion/Planeshift/Apocalypse + Cube

Wizards Looking for More Beta Testers: Wizards is still asking for more beta testers. This would cover testing of both the next sets and the closed beta of the new interface. You can get details and apply : Wizards is still asking for more beta testers. This would cover testing of both the next sets and the closed beta of the new interface. You can get details and apply here

HammyBot Update: Hammybot is a great way to get cards and support the family of the late Erik Friborg. So far, Hammybot has raised well over $6,000! Don’t stop now! Hammybot still has over 25,000 cards to sell, including a number of foil Mythics. Hammybot also has a nice collection of Foil lands, so if you want to pimp out your constructed decks…

Opinion Section: Paper Forgeries

This week’s opinions section was sparked by this article . Chas Andres, the financial writer over at SCG, talked about a Chinese company that was offering counterfeit cards in large volumes (“large” as in a minimum order of 55,000 cards.) The counterfeits are good, and getting better.

That’s scary.

Magic exists as it does because the drafters can sell their cards, the constructed players can buy singles and the traders can always find a touchstone for value. All that relies on the network of dealers and card store. Without that elaborate secondary market, the game becomes a whole lot more expensive and getting decks together for sanctioned constructed events becomes a lot harder. Having a bunch of hard-to-detect counterfeits threatens that secondary market.

This does not mean that Magic is dying. It does, however, provide some solid evidence that the newest card frame, with its hard-to-forge hologram, is needed. (On a related note – as someone who has needed either a magnifying glass or really good light to read the collector numbers on paper red cards for a couple years, I like the new frames. And, yes, that is relevant. As a judge, I am often asked for oracle text for some foreign card that neither player knows by name, so I end up searching by collector number.)

The forgeries are bad, and Wizards is going to have to take steps to save the value of Modern cards, in particular. (Vintage cards are harder to forge: you can get the printing right, but most old cards have a patina of wear that is trickier to duplicate.) It’s not time to sell out, but if you are buying Modern cards as an “investment,” you might need to think about it.

The What to Play? Dilemma:

I am including this section on selecting a deck in the hopes that you readers may benefit. I need a standard deck, and my choice is influenced by card availability, my play style, my preferences and my knowledge of the format. These factors apply to all deck choices, so hopefully you can get something out of it.

This weekend, I have a Saturday with no other commitments. That has happened maybe twice in the last six months. There is a PTQ in town. I’m not judging, so I could actually play. Problem is, it is Standard. I have played maybe a dozen matches of Standard since Theros appeared and the miracles left.

I have some cards. I have judged a half dozen events since Theros appeared, and have played sealed and draft with friends, so I have complete sets of commons and uncommons. I also have a decent collection of rares, but Mythics are more limited. I prefer, as a general rule, not to borrow anything I would have difficulty returning if broken or stolen. That means I might buy or borrow a couple cards, but I won’t borrow a bunch of money cards. What does that rule eliminate? I have zero Stormbreath Dragons, Master of Waves, or Purphoros, and just singletons of Thassa and Polukranos, so Mono-Blue Devotion and most red, Naya and green aggro builds won’t work.

What I do have the cards to build, borrowing a card here and there, are Mono-Black Devotion, BW Control (see Cutting Edge Tech, below), GW Aggro with Voice of Resurgence (well, three voices, not the full quartet), BW Humans (see Cutting Edge Tech) and so forth. I could probably also pull together UW Control or Esper Humans deck. Finally, I have a playset of Ashioks, and I could brew around them. So, what to play?

To begin with, I have tried playing the GW aggro deck, something very similar to the Wb Humans and the UG Flash Aggro build I featured a few weeks back. They are not for me. While the decks are powerful, they either explode out of the gate and win or get behind and then slowly get buried by the card draw and power of more midrange and controlly decks. My main goal in playing a big event like a PTQ is to enjoy myself, and aggro decks like those produce too little of the highly enjoyable time spent winning, and too much time being ground out when you are losing. Moreover, what I like best in Magic game play is clawing your way back from a bad position, and these decks don’t do that well.

Getting out of a bad position and clawing your way to a win is almost the definition of a playing a UW control deck. I have looked at the UW decks with Elixir of Vitality. In theory, I like the idea, and have played this type of deck before. However, I am not a super-fast player when I’m not really, really familiar with the deck. That means I could easily wind up with an unintentional draw. (Paper PTQ, remember?) If I do that, I am would get stuck in the draw bracket, which probably be filled with UW control decks and other slow builds. A day full of mirror matches against other slow control players sounds, well, dreadful. If I had two weeks to practice with the deck, maybe. As is, I can’t play UW control. (That probably applies to Esper control as well. I would have to think about Esper Humans.)

Mirror matches also figure into another possible choice: Mono-black Devotion. I have the Rats, Demons, most of the lands and the Hero’s Downfalls. I could build the deck. However, the deck is heavily, heavily played here in the Midwest (four in last week’s PTQ Top 8.) Players are ready for it, and play it. That means my opponents will likely understand my deck better than I do, which makes for a long, not terribly successful day.

Of the decks I can build, I am wavering between two or three. The first is the BW Control deck Brennan DeCandio played at the SCG Open. The second is an Esper Aggro-Control list, somewhere between Esper Humans and pure control. The third option is to brew something using some of my favorite cards – stuff I like playing. I saw a BUG deck online that looked like it could be a shell. BUG would give me Sylvan Caryatid for blocking and acceleration, Abrupt Decay / Hero’s Downfall / Devour Flesh / Putrefy for removal, Underworld Connections / Divination / Urban Evolution and Opportunity to draw cards, plus utility cards like Far//Away and Golgari Charm. I could play discard in Duress and Thoughtseize, and counters like Syncopate, Dissolve and Gainsay. For finishers, I could mix and match Ashiok (since I have some), Jace, Garruk and AEtherling. I could even play Bow of Nylea to reuse a lot of the one-ofs in the deck, and to keep from decking myself. (That idea has draw bracket written all over it...) I have no idea if it would work, but I might try it out at FNM and see if I like it. After all, what I am looking for at the PTQ is a fun time, not necessarily a Top 8. Realistically, I have not put anywhere near the time into playtesting to have Top 8 as a reasonable goal. (Of course, I said that last month, too – and made Top 8. I’d love to repeat. Hope springs eternal.)

And if BUG bombs, I can play DeCandio’s BW Control – if I can get the mana to work. That list has scary mana – it might be easier to yanks the Hallowed Fountains and Nightveil Specters and go straight BW, but Nightveil Specter seems fun. Oh well, if BUG crashes at FNM, I can playtest and do test draws with DeCandi’s list between rounds. In the paper world, you can playtest with proxies, so I can bring both decks.

Cutting Edge Tech:

Note: the feedback on “what to do with this section?” liked what I have been doing, so I’ll keep spewing out decklists.

Standard: The holidays are over, and events are ramping up again. SCG ran events in Orlando last weekend, and I ran a PTQ in Green Bay. SCG Top 8 lists are : The holidays are over, and events are ramping up again. SCG ran events in Orlando last weekend, and I ran a PTQ in Green Bay. SCG Top 8 lists are here . PTQ Top 8 lists are here . Both events were won by Mono-blue Devotion. The SCG Top 8 was over half blue devotion. The Green Bay PTQ was over half the T8 was black devotion. We’ve all seen those decks a lot. Here are two I haven’t featured.

Modern: We had a Modern GP last weekend, in Europe. The fact that it is in Europe may or may not affect the results – Europe has a very different metagame in Vintage, and to some extent in Legacy. I’m not sure whether that also affects Modern, but it might. Check out Procrastination’s and BlippytheSlug’s analysis yesterday (tomorrow as I write this) for more info.

Pauper: Pauper fired a number of premier events this weekend, thanks to the reduced minimums. A number of high-finishing decks were pseudo-combo: deck like Atog Affinity with lots of baubles, and this Kiln Fiend build. Still, this is way better than the old, finally banned storm bounce decks.

Theros Block Constructed: This is probably one of the last times I feature the block format until Born of the Gods gets here. The format may not be completely solved, but it is close. Born will shake it up.

Vintage: As a run-up to Vintage Masters and fully Powered play online, coming this summer, I am going to mix coverage of Classic and Vintage. This week, I am going to look at the Vintage equivalent of a Classic staple: Shops. The Vintage version revolves around : As a run-up to Vintage Masters and fully Powered play online, coming this summer, I am going to mix coverage of Classic and Vintage. This week, I am going to look at the Vintage equivalent of a Classic staple: Shops. The Vintage version revolves around Smokestack and Karn, Silver Golem much more than in Classic – mainly because Karn can kill so many more artifacts in Vintage. (Die, moxen, die!) Here’s the list:

Legacy: SCG had a big Legacy event last weekend. A week before a Land/Life from the Loam/Entomb deck won, and shook up the metagame. This week we see a return to Delver, but a Delver deck with GB giving the pilot access to Golgari Charm, which can answer a True-Name Nemesis.

Card Prices:

MTGOTraders Bots, so check out mtgotradersbot, mtgotradersbot2, mtgotradersbot3, mtgotradersbot4, mtgotradersbot5, CardCaddy and CardWareHouse, or you can order them directly from Notes: All my prices come from MTGOTraders.com . For cards that are available in multiple sets, I am quoting the lower price. Thus, the price I’m quoting for Thoughtseize is generally the Theros price. In certain other cases (e.g Brainstorm) I will note which version I track. All these cards are generally available from theso check out mtgotradersbot, mtgotradersbot2, mtgotradersbot3, mtgotradersbot4, mtgotradersbot5, CardCaddy and CardWareHouse, or you can order them directly from the website . Now, on to prices.

The cost of entire sets is relevant if you redeem, but it is also a decent indicator of overall trends. Right now, I think we are seeing a combination of the rebound after the panic following the scheduled events suspension, and a slowdown in Theros drafting. Theros was underpriced; now it is moving back to where it should be.

Complete Set Price Last Week Change % Change Dragon's Maze $91.06 $86.41 $4.65 5% Gatecrash $114.61 $109.93 $4.68 4% M14 $140.01 $139.67 $0.34 0% Return to Ravnica $168.53 $162.58 $5.95 4% Theros $121.31 $121.14 $0.17 0%

Standard prices are moving around, but are generally slightly up. I added a couple cards last week – anything else I should be tracking?.

Modern prices are oscillating – but no clear direction is apparent. It’s just weekly ups and downs based on what decks are popular.

Pauper prices were remarkably quiet this week..

Legacy and Classic prices were also pretty stable. Everyone is waiting for the Born of the Gods, so no one is trading all that much.

The Good Stuff:

The Good Stuff starts with a list of the non-foil, non-premium cards on MTGO that cost more than $25 each. Force of Will is back above $110. Other chase cards are also climbing. The list of cards over $25 is now almost 50 cards long, and that does not include foils or special promos. It is interesting to see that Primeval Titan is back on the list. It is only $10 in paper.

Prices Rarity Set Price Lion's Eye Diamond R MI $ 163.39 Force of Will R MED $ 113.94 Force of Will R PRM $ 113.81 Rishadan Port R MM $ 94.64 Tarmogoyf R FUT $ 78.11 Wasteland U TE $ 75.84 Tarmogoyf M MMA $ 74.21 Liliana of the Veil M ISD $ 73.70 Show and Tell R UZ $ 71.11 Misdirection R MM $ 66.09 Gaea's Cradle R UZ $ 60.64 Mox Opal M SOM $ 52.45 Tundra R ME2 $ 49.28 Tundra R ME4 $ 48.17 Karn Liberated M NPH $ 44.17 Underground Sea R ME4 $ 40.30 Underground Sea R ME2 $ 40.29 Natural Order R VI $ 40.13 Vampiric Tutor R VI $ 38.34 Fulminator Mage R SHM $ 38.23 Vendilion Clique R MOR $ 38.19 Vendilion Clique M MMA $ 37.41 Bayou R ME4 $ 37.09 Tropical Island R ME4 $ 36.14 Volcanic Island R ME3 $ 36.00 Voice of Resurgence M DGM $ 35.53 Bayou R ME3 $ 35.37 Tropical Island R ME3 $ 35.27 Jace, the Mind Sculptor M WWK $ 34.82 Volcanic Island R ME4 $ 34.81 City of Traitors R EX $ 34.72 Jace, Architect of Thought M RTR $ 34.71 Polluted Delta R ONS $ 33.22 Mutavault R MOR $ 32.66 Griselbrand M AVR $ 32.59 Sneak Attack R UZ $ 32.55 Batterskull M NPH $ 32.41 Sphinx's Revelation M RTR $ 31.22 Vindicate R AP $ 29.74 Grove of the Burnwillows R FUT $ 29.38 True-Name Nemesis R C13 $ 28.61 Tangle Wire R NE $ 27.67 Mishra's Workshop R ME4 $ 27.43 Dark Confidant M MMA $ 27.32 Mana Drain R ME3 $ 26.30 Mutavault R M14 $ 26.16 Primeval Titan M M12 $ 25.73 Hurkyl's Recall R 10E $ 25.49

The big number is the retail price of a playset (4 copies) of every card available on MTGO. Assuming you bought the least expensive version available, the cost of owning a playset of every card on MTGO you can own is $26,200. That’s up about $400 from where we were last week. Now that the holidays are over, people are playing more and prices are rebounding.

Weekly Highlights:

I spent Saturday running a PTQ, and Sunday goofing off. Good weekend for me, but less so if you are looking for MTGO-related content. The PTQ involved a lot of mono-black control, and a lot of judge stuff that is not really of interest to online players. For example, online players don’t have to worry about why playing Thassa with four blue devotion already in play triggers evolve, but Imposing Sovereign does not tap her. On MTGO, you don’t have to worry about understanding all that stuff; it just works.

My favorite PureMTGO.com article of the week this week was probably the podcast . Joshua is fitting in well. (I started to write “getting his feet wet,” etc. – but those analogies seem strange in the virtual world.) An honorable mention to Blippy’s Overdriven! #73 from last week, just for the Canadian Archeology pic. Been there, done that.

PRJ

“one million words” on MTGO.