“Our view is that the most likely consequence is not to encourage more consumption of oil,” he said. Rather, drawing more oil from existing fields will reduce the need to develop new ones, “and that’s an environmental plus,” he said.

The Future

Boundary Dam’s owner will evaluate the project for two years before deciding whether to capture carbon dioxide from other boilers at the plant, which it says it could do at lower cost. Part of the calculus is that, less than 10 miles away, there is an almost limitless supply of cheap coal that it otherwise might not be able to use as Canada’s new standards take hold.

“We had to figure out if we could continue using coal as a fuel source for the next 100 years,” said Mr. Zeleny, the former employee.

As for the United States and the rest of the world, the prognosis for carbon capture is less clear. If the United States moves forward, China and other countries may make bigger strides as well. This month, the United States and China announced plans for several collaborative research projects.

“How this will play out over time is hard to tell,” said Professor Rubin of Carnegie Mellon. “Inevitably, there will be a balance between technological capability, cost and political realities.”

Others were even more upbeat. Dan Reicher, who directs the Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance at Stanford University, said the Obama administration’s recent moves on emissions could be a catalyst.

“We’re finally getting some clarity on where we’re headed on carbon emissions,” Mr. Reicher said, arguing that collecting carbon dioxide could become a significant industry.

“We need every tool in the toolbox to address climate change,” he said.