Even achieving California’s 2030 goals is likely to require “incremental innovation,” cutting the costs and improving the capabilities of energy storage, carbon capture, and carbon-neutral renewable fuels, says Alex Kizer, EFI’s director of strategic research. But pulling off what the state hopes to achieve by midcentury could require technological leaps in long-duration storage, clean cement, offshore wind, hydrogen fuel, and other areas.

“To get to 80% cuts and beyond, breakthrough innovation is needed,” Kizer says.

One finding that won’t be popular among environmentalists or some policymakers in California (who will note that five of the report’s 11 sponsors have the word “gas” in their name) is that adding carbon-capture systems to the state’s natural-gas plants could achieve some of the deepest emissions reductions in the electricity sector. Specifically, those cuts could add up to 17.7 megatons in 2030, compared with 11 megatons for renewable plants coupled with 5- or 10-hour storage systems, which would likely mean big banks of lithium-ion batteries.

Critics argue that embracing carbon capture will lock in an ongoing reliance on fossil fuels—and all the environmental damage that comes with producing them. But the report notes that natural-gas generation will likely continue to play a key role because it’s cheap and steady, which will be crucial features for a grid operating with increasing levels of highly variable solar and wind generation.

Other areas that could deliver significant emissions cuts include fuel economy standards and low-carbon fuels in the transportation sector; carbon capture and shifts to hydrogen fuel in industry; energy efficiency and electrification in the building sector; and converting livestock manure into renewable fuels in agriculture.