About 15% of Arkansans will be difficult to count during the 2020 Census, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

That's about average among states, and it makes Arkansas the 24th-hardest-to-count state population in the U.S., according to an Associated Press analysis.

Those Arkansans -- like other hard-to-count residents across the nation -- may have low incomes, lack computers or internet access at home, or primarily speak a language other than English. The Census Bureau also considers minority group populations harder to count.

Obtaining an accurate count is critical because census results determine the allocation of $1.5 trillion in federal money and decide which states gain or lose congressional seats.

"There is nothing more important, no higher priority, than reaching the hard-to-count," Census Bureau Director Steven Dillingham told lawmakers last summer.

The AP's analysis of Census Bureau data took the bureau's worst 25% of low-response scores among thousands of census tracts. Then it determined the proportions of people living in other geographic areas -- states, counties, cities and towns -- who live within those tracts. Low response scores refer to the percentage of households that the Census Bureau expects will not respond to the census on their own.

If the census's low response score for a tract was 25.7 or higher -- the top quartile of response scores nationwide -- the population in that tract was considered "hard to count."

Desha County, where AP's analysis determined 35% of residents live in hard-to-count areas, has formed a committee to ensure a complete census count. The group has been meeting for a few months.

"If you don't know how many people you're serving and know something about them, you don't know what services they need from the county," County Judge Richard Tindall said.

"Every dollar counts, and we need everything we can get top-rate," he said.

Nationwide, about a quarter of the population lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods, including in Atlanta, Cleveland, Dallas, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Memphis and Fresno, Calif.

About 86% of Detroit's population lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods, by far the highest of any major U.S. city, the analysis found.

Nationwide, the Census Bureau predicts a 60.5% response rate.

In Arkansas, two statewide committees and numerous local committees in all corners of the state have formed to ensure that every resident is counted.

It's not just one type of area at risk of an undercount. Urban and rural areas alike will be challenging to accurately count.

The AP analysis determined that 53% of North Little Rock's population will be hard to count for a number of reasons, including higher numbers of people who have low incomes and lack home computers.

The city, according to its website, is forming committees to help residents fill out their census forms.

The Fort Smith committee has been active for a while and even has a van that travels through Sebastian County to reach residents about the census, said Brad Cameron, communications chairman for the Arkansas Counts statewide committee.

Springdale, where 43.7% of residents live in hard-to-count areas, has formed a committee that has been meeting for several months, said Ashley Earhart, a member of the committee and a spokeswoman for the city.

The committee is particularly concerned about the area's population of non-native English speakers and people not originally from the United States, who may not understand why the census is so important.

"We want to make sure everybody is educated on why we want a good count and not just 'because,'" Earhart said.

A particular problem for the estimated several thousand Marshall Islanders in the area is that the census will not be offered in Marshallese, Cameron said, meaning outreach by the Arkansas Coalition of Marshallese is important.

The Desha County committee has decided to dispatch volunteers across the county next year. They'll likely be in libraries, municipal buildings and even stores in the county's unincorporated areas. A volunteer would take a laptop and help visitors fill out the census form.

This outreach is "all new to us," Tindall said, adding that they'll play it by ear.

"It's really going to depend on the success of each location," he said. "If we're not getting anyone counted at one particular store, then we'll try to move to another. If your count does well, we'll be there a little longer."

The Arkansas State Library System has been an "incredible partner" in trying to communicate with public libraries about how they can be resources to help people fill out the census form, said Abby Hughes Holsclaw, a member of the Arkansas Counts committee.

Sevier County, where 37% of residents live in hard-to-count areas, is setting up a committee, said Erika Buenrrostro, coordinator of the Center for Student Success at the University of Arkansas Cossatot Community College in De Queen.

For Buenrrostro, the opportunity to engage students about the census is similar to her efforts to get students to register to vote. Helping students understand and participate in the census will teach them about their duties as United States residents, she says.

"One of my main goals for freshman students or any students is civic engagement, and this is one way of doing that," she said.

The ideal outreach for the census is peer-to-peer, Holsclaw said. That's when people hear about the importance of completing the census from a friend or neighbor who looks like them, or speaks their language or is someone they trust.

In addition to the Arkansas Counts statewide committee, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson started a statewide Complete Count committee in August.

The committee's first progress report was due Nov. 1. The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette's request for the document went unfulfilled Wednesday.

The census begins April 1. Residents will receive cards with information about how to file online. Those who do not fill out the census form online will eventually receive paper forms. Those who still have not responded after a certain amount of time will be approached by census workers, who will collect data door-to-door.

The Census Bureau announced Wednesday that it would increase pay for those census takers -- temporary workers -- in Arkansas. They can now earn between $17 per hour and $23.50 per hour.

Researchers have learned that Hispanics, black people, non-English-speaking foreigners and children younger than 5 are the hardest to count, along with tribal members, nontraditional families and people with informal living arrangements.

Experts say the Trump administration's effort to put a citizenship question on the census questionnaire may scare off some people, particularly foreigners who live here illegally. Although the citizenship-question effort failed, some people say damage has already been done.

California and New Mexico have some of the nation's largest concentrations of Hispanic people. In those states, more than 40% of the population lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods.

By contrast, Vermont, Maine and West Virginia have some of the highest concentrations of white residents and older people, who are more likely to fill out census forms. There, less than 5% of the population lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods.

To highlight the importance of the 2020 census, California is spending an estimated $187 million on advertising and events, and recruiting neighborhood leaders to encourage participation. California census officials have hired liaisons whose sole focus is 15 specific hard-to-count groups, including farmworkers, homeless people and people who don't have broadband access.

Information for this article was contributed by Corey Williams, Mike Schneider and Angeliki Kastanis of The Associated Press.

A Section on 12/12/2019