Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker is in the "fight of his life" trying to fend of a recall challenge. The latest Marquette poll finds him leading by a single percentage point, while the most recent Public Policy Polling survey has him ahead by 5 points over his likely Democratic opponent Tom Barrett.

A Walker victory would be a major blow to state Democrats and labor unions who were stirred into action and organised a successful recall campaign by his signing of anti-collective bargaining legislation in 2011. Yet, while it is still very possible Walker may be defeated, his odds of survival have always been better than some might have wished to believe.

Last year, tens of thousands of people gather at the Capitol in Madison to protest Walker's proposed legislation. You might have thought then that he was the most hated governor in history, or at least in the country at that time. In fact, Walker's average net approval over the last year in Public Policy Polling (PPP) polls, before they switched to likely voters last month, was about -7%: that places Walker in the 30th percentile, along with other governors such as Linc Chafee and Rick Snyder. Walker's not loved, but he isn't hated.

As far as precedent goes, the only recall of a governor in the last 90 years, Gray Davis in California, illustrated that voters really have to hate the job the incumbent is doing to vote for a recall. Davis' disapproval in the exit polls was 71% – but only 55% of people actually voted to recall him. Part of that 16-point gap, no doubt, was from disapproving Democrats who knew that tossing out Davis would all but guarantee the election of Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, but not all of it was.

(Note: in California, you first vote to recall a governor and if a majority says yes, then voters choose among a host of replacement candidates; in Wisconsin, the Democratic and Republican parties hold primaries and Walker would then go up against the Democratic candidate and other minor parties' candidates directly.)

In 2003, 63% of voters voted for a Republican in the second round, which is 8 points more than voted to recall Davis. Exit polls indicate that 8% of Arnold Schwarzenegger voters and 26% of alternate Republican Tom McClintock voters chose no on the recall question – and then voted Republican. Clearly, there was decent segment of the population that preferred a Republican, but was against a recall.

The Wisconsin recall state senate elections from last year illustrate the same point to a lesser extent. In all six districts where a Republican was being recalled, the final PPP poll found that more voters disapproved of Walker's job than were voting for the Democratic replacement for senate.

Table: Harry J Enten/guardiannews.com

The average difference between Walker disapproval and voting for the Democrat of 1.8 percentage points sounds slim but could make a world of difference in a recall election, since Walker's disapproval has hovered around an average 52.4% over the last year. A look at the data specifically for the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall reveals a more uphill fight for Walker's opponents.

Table: Harry J Enten/guardiannews.com

Only one poll taken since last year has indicated that at least 50% of voters support the recall. The same polls indicated that the most likely, and arguably generic, Democratic candidate Tom Barrett also only hit 50% once. Disapproval for Walker has been higher than both support for Barrett and support for recall in every poll, by 3-6 percentage points. As in California, there is a clear segment of the population that disapproves of the incumbent governor, but does not want to recall him.

Polls taken in the last year may have also been too favorable to recall because they were taken among registered and not likely voters. The latest PPP and Marquette polls both show Walker doing better, in fact, among likely as opposed to registered voters, which matches the pattern of non-presidential elections almost always featuring turnout more Republican than the electorate we saw in 2008.

You might say to yourself that undecideds usually go to the challenger. In this case, 5% of voters in the PPP and Marquette poll are undecided in a match-up between Barrett and Walker. If undecideds go to Barrett in unison, it would either even the race, in the case of PPP, or provide him with the margin of victory, in the Marquette poll.

But the fact is that undecideds actually went against recalling the Republican state senators in 2011. Further, every single final Davis recall poll in California overestimated the margin by which Davis was recalled. The 5-10% of undecideds in the California polls went overwhelmingly against the recall.

Now, it's possible that Walker could end up being despised enough generally for an outright recall win, or that the undecideds do go against him. But going by past history and the numbers I see, I think he will survive.