Shavkat Mirziyoyev expected to continue Islam Karimov’s iron-fisted rule in Uzbekistan, which has no free press or opposition

Uzbeks will elect a new leader for the first time in more than 25 years on Sunday. Just don’t expect a Trump-like upset.

About 18 million people are eligible to vote for a successor to Islam Karimov, the long-time dictator who died in September after ruling Uzbekistan ever since it gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Karimov’s prime minister for the past 13 years, is set to step seamlessly into the shoes of his former boss and is widely expected to continue his predecessor’s autocratic rule.



Mirziyoyev is likely to win a landslide following a lacklustre election campaign enlivened only by a wild (and probably false) rumour that the new regime had poisoned Gulnara Karimova, the late president’s socialite eldest daughter, and buried her in a secret grave.

Mirziyoyev’s three challengers are all regime loyalists standing only to lend a democratic veneer to an election in a country that has no political opposition or free press.

“This is to show to the outside world that we have some kind of democracy in Uzbekistan,” a local businessman told the Guardian, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. “It’s a show, but the outcome will be the same.”

In the capital Tashkent, signs of election hurly burly are hard to detect amid the weak winter sun and snowmelt streets. Drab campaign posters hang over main roads, each featuring a middle-aged grey-haired man in a dark suit staring out at voters with an earnest expression on his face.

The most colourful billboards are the bright blue and pink posters urging the electorate to get out and vote on Sunday, a sign that Tashkent wants a high turnout to legitimise the choice of Mirziyoyev as the next president.

The four candidates have delivered monologues on identikit manifestos in lecture halls and meeting rooms around the country. Opposition to the status quo that has persisted since Karimov took over in 1989 has been non existent.

Under Karimov the opposition was at best hounded into exile, at worst jailed, tortured and even killed. “Opposition is viewed as a destabilising factor,” said Rustam Burnashev, an Uzbekistan-born analyst based in neighbouring Kazakhstan. “Not a single person in his right mind, if he really believes in this [authoritarian] model – and I think the leadership of Uzbekistan sincerely does believe in it – would go for that kind of liberalisation, because they see it as first and foremost destabilisation.”



Facebook Twitter Pinterest Uzbek politician Samandar Kukanov, left, shown with Islam Karimov, before Kukanov was jailed under the president’s rule. Photograph: Human Rights Watch

The release last month of political prisoner Samandar Kukanov after 23 years in jail sparked a glimmer of hope for those rooting for liberalisation, and was hailed by the European Union as “an encouraging political message” from Tashkent.

However, human rights campaigners point out that Kukanov is only one among thousands held on spurious charges in jails where torture is rife.

“If interim president Shavkat Mirziyoyev is serious about showing the world that his rule will be an improvement over Islam Karimov’s repression he’ll need to release many more political prisoners in addition to ending torture,” Steve Swerdlow of Human Rights Watch told Agence France-Presse.

But Mirziyoyev is standing on a platform of continuing the policies of his predecessor – and although some voters chafe against authoritarian rule, others are happy to vote for more of the same.

“He’s strong, he’s smart, he’s experienced,” explained Abduvahid, a twentysomething resident of Tashkent who gave only his first name. He planned to cast his ballot for Mirziyoyev as “Karimov’s disciple”.

The result may be a foregone conclusion, but a dose of excitement was injected into an otherwise lacklustre election last month by the rumour that the new regime had poisoned Gulnara Karimova, buried her in a secret grave in a Tashkent cemetery and then bulldozed her resting place.

Once a powerful diplomat, wealthy entrepreneur and flamboyant pop diva, Karimova disappeared from the public eye in 2014 when she was placed under house arrest after dragging Uzbekistan into disgrace through her involvement in several international corruption investigations.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Vladimir Putin talks to Tatyana Karimova and her daughter Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva in September. Photograph: Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/EPA

Her downfall coincided with a bitter public feud waged with her mother, Tatyana Karimova, and sister Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva. She once accused her mother of practising witchcraft.



Tashkent has not reacted to the murder allegation, but Gulnara’s UK-based son has cast doubt on the report, published by the Central Asian news website Centre-1 and quoting an anonymous source claiming to be from Uzbekistan’s security services.

Islam Karimov, who is named after his grandfather (from whom he was latterly estranged owing to the family feud) said he believed she remained under house arrest in Tashkent, although he could not confirm it beyond doubt. He still thinks his mother’s life might be in danger following the death of his namesake, he added.