Mr. Xi first laid out a sweeping blueprint for economic rejuvenation, including vows to revamp the state sector and nurture market forces, in 2013. But the halting progress reflected his reluctance to cede state control, several economists said.

The mixed signals have paralyzed state officials, who are unsure how far to impose cuts while preserving stability.

“The central government emphasizes supply-side reform,” said Yao Yang, an economist at Peking University. “On the other hand, you still encourage local governments to invest. That’s the confusion that local government officials are facing, so they don’t know the direction.”

Image A steel plant in Hefei, China. Production outpaces demand. Credit... © Jianan Yu / Reuters/Reuters

How far Mr. Xi is willing to go, given the economic warning sirens, may become clearer after the Communist Party leadership presents its economic plans to the legislature, the National People’s Congress.

“It remains to be seen if they walk the talk,” said Jörg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. “It would be terrible for China if they don’t.”

It could also be difficult if they do.

A recent study concluded that more than three million people in the steel, coal and similar industries could lose their jobs in the next two years if state cuts go through. On Monday, the government said it would lay off 1.8 million steel and coal workers, around 15 percent of the work force in those industries, though it did not say when.