Sep 21, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the fifth inning at Turner Field. The Mets defeated the Braves 10-2. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Nationals signed pitcher Max Scherzer to a monster contract which has made them a heavy favorite to win the World Series. He joins a rotation that was already one of the better in baseball, and is now in the minds of many the best.

For months, baseball fans were anticipating where Scherzer would decide to call home in 2015 and beyond. It was such exciting news that when he finally did sign with the Nationals, I went out of my comfort zone to casually talk with a coworker about what he thought about the signing. To my surprise, he wasn’t too impressed.

The token New York Mets fan on the payroll, my coworker dismissed the signing and without blinking informed me that his favorite team still had a better rotation.

He has to be crazy to think the Mets have a better starting five than the Nationals, right? I should probably tell my boss he’s unfit to work for our company.

Rather than involving human resources, I thought about what he said. Rooting interest seemed like the quickest reason why he would jump to his insane conclusion.

Certainly the Mets do have a good rotation. Backed by Matt Harvey at the top with a lot of young talented arms with a high ceiling following suit, New York’s second most popular baseball team certainly does have some competitive starting pitchers.

To the Mets’ credit, their pitching is one most teams would be jealous of. However, the starting five remain far less proven than what the Nationals have. Harvey didn’t pitch at all in 2014 and has only 36 career starts at the big league level. The veteran Bartolo Colon is ten seasons removed from his Cy Young Award in 2005 and will turn 42 in May.

My guess is that either Jon Niese or Dillon Gee is traded at some point before Opening Day. Each has experience and could fit into a rotation as a number three starter, but no better than that. Niese has a career 3.87 ERA with Gee just behind at 3.91. If traded to a team in need of some pitching depth, the Mets may get something valuable in return. For now, those two are Mets and carefully placed on the back end of a talented rotation right where they belong.

Also in the rotation is Zack Wheeler and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom. Both pitched well in 2014, particularly deGrom who finished 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA. Ideally, I’d like to think the Mets’ 2015 rotation would include Harvey/Colon/deGrom/Wheeler/and either Niese or Gee. The team also has talented prospect Noah Syndergaard waiting in the wings.

Meanwhile, the Nationals have a rotation that prior to adding Scherzer already included Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark. Strasburg, Fister, and Zimmermann all finished the 2014 season in the Top 10 of the NL Cy Young vote. Scherzer himself finished fifth in the American League voting process after winning in 2013.

The argument seems pretty one-sided at this point. The Nationals clearly do have a better rotation than the Mets. But are the Mets far behind? Past success doesn’t always necessarily mean favorable results in the future. Just because everyone on the Nationals pitched well in 2014 doesn’t mean they will repeat the success in 2015.

Projections are impossible to get right, so knowing which group of men will perform better is just an estimation on how they have done before. The best way to measure these two rotations might be to actually look at them individually from the ace down to the fifth starter and compare them one-on-one.

Although the rotations are not yet set, they should look something like this:

Nationals with 2014 Statistics

Scherzer: 18-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP Strasburg: 14-11, 3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP Fister: 16-6, 2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP Zimmermann: 14-5, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP Gonzalez: 10-10, 3.57 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Mets with 2014 Statistics

Harvey: Did not play Colon: 15-13, 4.09 ERA, 1.22 WHIP deGrom: 9-6, 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP Wheeler: 11-11, 3.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP Niese: 9-11, 3.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Number One Starters: In the small sample we have seen of Harvey, he could potentially become better than Scherzer. Who knows? He’s a baby in terms of baseball experience. From what we do know so far, Scherzer remains the better pitcher.

Number Two Starters: Despite not living up to the hype quite yet, Strasburg is better than Colon is at this point. After all, Strasburg did tie for the NL lead in strikeouts in 2014. Colon will continue to regress in what might very well be his last season.

Number Three Starters: Fister’s only weakness appears to be his lack of strikeouts. In 2014, he averaged just 5.4 K/9. Other than that, you’d be a fool to take deGrom over him; at least in the 2015 season. Fister is coming off a career year while deGrom has the mission of avoiding a sophomore slump.

Number Four Starters: Zimmermann could be an ace on some rotations or at the very least a number three. Instead, on the Nationals he’s possibly pushed to fourth-starter status. Like so many others on the Mets, we’re not really sure what to expect from Wheeler. In two seasons he’s 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA. Zimmerman hasn’t had an ERA higher than Wheeler’s career mark since his second big league season. This could just mean Wheeler ends up better than Zimmermann one day. Right now, it definitely means Zimmermann is the one you want on the mound more.

Number Five Starters: Finally, rounding out the rotations are Gonzalez and Niese. Based on Gonzalez’s somewhat lackluster 2014 season, you may want to consider Niese. However Gonzalez still averaged more than a strikeout per inning in 2014. He only took a step backwards, not a full leap. Even in terms of the future, Niese is just one year younger than Gonzalez with far fewer accolades.

In hindsight, I have to give my coworker the benefit of the doubt. Mets fans may one day be able to brag about having a rotation better than the Nationals. Today, though, he’s just another baseball fan jealous that his favorite team doesn’t have the cash to sign a top free agent pitcher.