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What we know

Hours after Iran launched ballistic missiles against an Iraqi military base housing U.S. troops, a jetliner operated by Ukrainian International Airlines crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran’s airport. There were no survivors.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday intelligence suggests the airliner was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile. The intelligence has come from multiple sources, including Canada’s own intelligence agencies and intelligence from Canada’s allies.

Trudeau said it is “too early” to rule out any possibilities about what happened. The prime minister is calling for a full, credible investigation into the events that led to the plane’s crash before “we can draw any conclusions.” Iran’s civil aviation authority says it has invited Canadian investigators from the Transportation Safety Board to join the probe.

Passengers aboard the plane include 63 Canadian citizens, though Trudeau told media Wednesday that 138 people aboard the plane were transiting through Kyiv to Canada.

The victims include 82 Iranian citizens and 11 Ukrainians, as well as 10 Swedish, four Afghan, three German and three British nationals. The Star is maintaining a separate list of passengers with links to Canada.

Flight 752 took off at 6:12 a.m local time from Imam Khomeini International Airport, en route to Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. The plane, a three-year-old Boeing 737-800, had been delayed from taking off from Tehran by almost an hour. It never made it higher than 2,400 metres, data from the flight-tracking website FlightRadar24 indicates.

The flight through Kyiv is a popular route, as there are no direct flights between Canada and Iran.

For its part, UIA president Yevhen Dykhne strongly rejected the possibility the crew error or failure of the jet were to blame for the crash, saying the aircraft “was one of the best planes we had, with an amazing, reliable crew.”

In a statement, the airline went further, saying: “Given the crew’s experience, error probability is minimal. We do not even consider such a chance.”

The tragedy comes on the heels of rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

NATO has suspended a Canadian-led training mission in Iraq, citing security risks. However, NATO has said they are willing to restart the mission if tensions between the two countries improve.

Global Affairs Canada warned against any non-essential travel to Iran “due to the volatile security situation, the regional threat of terrorism and the risk of arbitrary detention.”

The agency said Canadians, particularly those holding dual Canadian-Iranian citizenship, were at risk of being arbitrarily questioned, arrested and detained.

Air Canada said Wednesday it is rerouting flights to Dubai amid the uncertainty in the Middle East.

The airline hasn’t used Iranian airspace since the middle of last year, but now will also avoid Iraq — affecting its service to Dubai, a major commercial hub.

A relative of a passenger grieves at the site of the Ukraine International Airlines crash on the outskirts of Tehran on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2020. NYT/Arash Khamooshi

Air Canada does not service locations in Iran or Iraq.

Transport Canada said earlier that Air Canada would comply with U.S.-led restrictions on commercial airlines operating in the Persian Gulf region.

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What we don’t know

The Star is still working to confirm the identities of many victims.

It is unclear how this will impact international relationships between Canada, the U.S. and Iran. The prime minister Thursday refused to draw any links between tensions between Iran and the U.S. and the downed plane.

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he would ask NATO to become “much more involved in the Middle East process.”

The Star’s Alex Ballingall reported Wednesday that Canada now faces significant questions about its role as one of the alliance’s 29 member-states. It’s unclear what the request of further involvement by the U.S. would look like at this stage. However, experts say its unlikely Canada will be sucked into a war in the region.

This report was last updated Jan. 9 at 3:50 p.m.

With files from Bruce Campion-Smith, Alex Boutilier, Star Staff and Star wire services

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