The Congress may win more than 140 seats in the Lok Sabha elections this year, revealed a recent internal assessment by the party.

Sonia Gandhi Sonia Gandhi

According to a report published in The Economic Times, the Congress believes it would reach the 140-plus figure on the basis of feedback received from its state units where polls have already taken place. However, the party has also predicted that the BJP could emerge as the largest party in the 16th Lok Sabha, though its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi would struggle to help the party even reach its record tally of 182 seats, which was won in 1998 and 1999, under former prime minister AB Vajpayee's leadership.

An upbeat Congress has now instructed all its state committees to step up its efforts in the 194 seats where polls are yet to be held. A proof of this is seen in the way in which Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her children, Rahul and Priyanka, have raised the poll pitch and started campaigning more aggressively.

Though the Congress leadership accepts there is a strong anti-incumbency wave, it has concluded that the BJP's failure to cut through caste barriers in rural areas would affect its performance in the Lok Sabha elections. "The key to Modi's plan is to make RSS' vision propping up a Akhand Hindu vote-bank. But most Dalits and OBCs - along with traditional anti-BJP sections among Hindus - are still refusing to be swept away by a Modi wave," a senior AICC functionary told ET.



Congress' internal assessment gives the party a minimum of 43 seats in the south, 50 seats in 12 northern states, 20 seats in west and 25 seats from east and north-east. "Our assessment makes us feel that a majority of Yadavs are still with Mulayam and Lalu Prasad in UP and Bihar, respectively, despite Modi focusing on the states. While Mayawati still holds sway on majority of Dalits in UP, elsewhere they are rallying behind Congress," the functionary added.

Congress also feels majority of Kurmis are still with Nitish Kumar in Bihar, advertising firmness of caste loyalty over religion. The assessment says BJP would not cross 35 seats in UP and 18 in Bihar. "The only way Modi can sweep the sates would be by making Yadavs switch over to BJP en masse. That does not seem to be happening," a Union Minister told ET.

The grand old party believes that Modi has consolidated significant Muslim and minority voters against the BJP-led NDA. "The more Modi wave is projected and the more Modi gets aggressive, the larger the counter-rallying among minorities for obvious reasons," a Congress leader told ET.