No Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972.

But Donald Trump came close in 2016, losing to Hillary Clinton by 44,765 votes, a margin of just over 1.5 percent percentage points.

Here are three scenarios — note Minnesota political observers — where Trump can win.

WEAK DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE

Many Democratic strategists now agree that the biggest problem with Hillary Clinton’s candidacy was Hillary Clinton.

For whatever reason, voters simply didn’t turn out for her. Trump’s 1.32 million votes was almost identical to what 2012 GOP candidate Mitt Romney got. But Clinton’s 1.37 million votes was a far cry from Barack Obama, who received more than 1.5 million votes in both 2008 and 2012.

RELATED: Trump making major push to turn Minnesota red in 2020. State Dems say they ‘can’t keep up.’

Under this winning scenario for Trump, the Democratic nominee merely matches or falls short of Clinton’s lackluster Minnesota performance, leaving the door open for Trump to win, perhaps aided by a better-than-2016 performance by the president.

Longtime Democratic operative Jeff Blodgett doesn’t think this will happen because he believes Democrats are so motivated to beat Trump that they’ll be energized behind whoever is nominated. But, he said, it’s definitely possible.

“We could have problems with our candidate,” Blodgett said. “President Trump could change course and win over voters with the economy or something. … The other danger is if the Democratic candidate ignores the state. It’s really important, and I don’t think national Democrats think of Minnesota as a competitive truly purple state, but it is.”

MASSIVE GREATER MN TURNOUT

Even if Democrats are energized, it’s possible that Trump supporters will be more energized — or at least, turn out in greater numbers.

According to Hamline University political science professor David Schultz, under this scenario, Trump’s base of older, white working class voters in greater Minnesota turns out in greater numbers than they did in 2016 — to the point that they counteract any boost Democrats may get from their hoped-for boost: suburban women.

Says Schultz: “(Trump’s) campaign sees a lot of signs, like I do, that there are solidly Republican areas of the state.”

This is clearly part of the Trump campaign’s strategy, which doesn’t appear to involve any attempt to moderate the president’s rhetoric or stances. Instead, the plan is to pour resources into the state unprecedented for a Republican candidate in Minnesota. Among them: a staff of roughly 100 campaign workers and tens of millions of dollars that will include advertising and mobilization for his base.

WIN THE THIRD PARTY VOTES

In 2016, the Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson and William Weld finished a distant third, but they garnered nearly 113,000 votes — easily enough to have surmounted Clinton’s margin if they had gone to Trump. In fact, Independence Party candidate Evan McMullin’s 53,000 votes would have been enough.

Longtime GOP strategist Gregg Peppin says a strong portion of these voters were Republicans who didn’t want to vote for Trump in 2016 — but could be swayed in 2020.

Under Peppin’s scenario, Trump could gain a 4 to 6 percentage point boost by tapping into this group of independent voters, many of whom remain skeptical of both parties’ establishments.

“It’s going to be tough, and I don’t want to sound pollyannaish,” Peppin said. “But if you had told me three years ago Trump would’ve come within 1.5 percent, I would have laughed. I really believe he’s got a shot — even though I say that with some incredulity. But it’s definitely possible.”

Ryan Faircloth contributed to this report.