What will be the biggest surprise on election night?

It’s a common and valid question, but I’m always a little amused by it.

If I were able to identify a completely unexpected or astonishing event that would happen a month from now, then that event shouldn’t be considered completely unexpected or astonishing. I think the better exercise is to understand how and why surprises happen, particularly with saturating coverage of elections. Here are four reasons.

Lack of attention

Two of the biggest electoral surprises in recent history happened because of a lack of media coverage and party attention. Both took place in primaries in districts that weren’t regarded as competitive.

I get asked if I predicted primary victories by Republican Dave Brat in Virginia in 2014 or Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York this year. The short answer is no. (I was actually playing softball for Category-5 when House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost to Brat.) But the longer answer is that I wasn’t really looking either.