Sea level rise: Jersey Shore town flooding predictions; $10B at risk

Some 25,000 New Jersey homes will be endangered within 20 years by regular tidal flooding powered by rising sea levels, according to a new analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

About 5,300 of those homes are in Ocean County, as both of the county's barrier islands are among the most imperiled locations in the U.S.

The threat is global in scope: More than $1 trillion in American real estate, including parts of Miami, Long Island and the San Francisco Bay area, will be in jeopardy by 2100.

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But New Jersey is among the most vulnerable, data from the UCS's "U.S. Coastal Property at Risk from Rising Seas" report shows.

If the ocean encroaches 10 more inches by 2035, $9.6 billion in residential property would be enveloped in the Garden State. No other state has more at risk.

As many as 376,000 people live in New Jersey homes that could be subject to damaging high tides an average of once every other week by the end of the century.

That's 1 out of every 25 New Jerseyans whose lives could be interrupted by coastal flooding even in the absence of a major storm.

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While many seaside communities are headed for a wake-up call, their reckonings could unfold in unique ways, according to Erika Spanger-Siegfried, senior analyst in the Climate and Energy Program at UCS and co-author of the report.

“Some may see sharp adjustments to their housing market in the not-too-distant future; some could see a slow, steady decline in home values; and others could potentially invest in protective measures to keep impacts at bay for a few more decades," she said in a statement accompanying the report.

"In any case, by knowing how much time they have before a significant number of properties will be regularly flooded, communities can start planning and implementing responses now, while they still have a range of options from which to choose,” she said.

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The report is based on what would happen if sea levels rose anywhere from less than a foot in the near future all to the way up to almost 8 feet by 2100.

While there is little doubt within the scientific community that industrialization is warming the planet and melting polar sea ice, reasonable disagreements still exist over the pace of sea level rise.

In Atlantic City, the sea level has climbed by an average of 1½ inches per decade since 1912, according to research by Rutgers University.

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Ocean County

Trailing only Cape May County in expected impact, Ocean County, particularly the barrier islands, should expect regular flooding in the coming generations.

Even if sea level rise fails to match the official projections of 1½ feet by 2060 and 3 feet by 2100, much of the Jersey Shore will be returned to the sea.

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Monmouth County

With the coast's fluctuation in elevation, the effects on Monmouth County are sporadic.

The Bayshore, the barrier island and other low-lying areas are in the crosshairs by 2100.

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Under a nightmare scenario, the Shore would look very much different than it does today, according to Climate Central, a nonprofit that produces research and analysis on sea level change.

Russ Zimmer: 732-557-5748, razimmer@app.com, @russzimmer