Most Washington insiders seem convinced that House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) will take over for Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) at the end of July; then again, most of these people were convinced Cantor would cruise to an easy re-election.

But if the real race now is to see who takes over as Majority Whip, it seems likely that another insider will take it. It’s current House members, not disaffected GOP voters, who will cast ballots next week, and when things get uncertain in Washington, members often consider who’s been good to them — meaning, which member has helped them the most when they needed money.

Just as McCarthy, currently the No. 3 Republican in the House, seems like a lock for the No. 2 position, the No. 4 guy, Deputy Majority Whip Pete Roskam (R-Ill.) appears to have a strong chance to move up the ladder if one consideration is money handed out to colleagues. He is, according to an OpenSecrets.org analysis, a loyal party guy. Over the course of his seven-year career, his campaign committee and leadership PAC have combined to give $2.6 million away to other candidates and to GOP party organizations. The bulk has gone to the National Republican Congressional Committee, the key party organization supporting House Republicans. Just $875,000 of his funds have gone to candidates directly. So far in the 2014 cycle he has transferred more than $754,000 from his campaign committee to the NRCC, which makes him the third largest supporter of the party organ.

Roskam’s elevation, if it happens, might disappoint anyone who hoped that knocking Cantor out of office would radically transform the House GOP leadership. Like Cantor, Roskam’s top donors this cycle are from the financial world — the insurance and the securities and investment industries. He and his leadership PAC are also popular with big pharmaceutical companies.

Another leading candidate is Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.). On the one hand, Scalise is the head of the powerful Republican Study Committee, a sub-group within the Republican caucus that tries to set a conservative agenda for the party as a whole. That’s the kind of credential that insurgent conservatives would like. But in terms of money, the third-term congressman is a small and local player. When it comes to comparing him to Roskam on fundraising, there is no comparison.

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Scalise has never raised more than $1.6 million to win an election. So far in the 2014 cycle he has brought in just over $1 million and his leadership PAC, Eye of the Tiger PAC, has raised just $200,000. He has given just $85,000 to other candidates, committees and party groups. And since 2010, his leadership PAC has given barely $240,000 to fellow Republicans. And his fundraising network exists mainly within the borders of the Bayou State: 76 percent of contributions to his campaign came from Louisiana in this election cycle.

Scalise has been subsidized by the energy industry, by far the top contributor to his campaign committee, as well as a handful of other loyal donors. An offshore boat company called Edison Chouest Offshore has over the years given $77,600 to his campaign as well as $32,500 to his leadership PAC, Eye of the Tiger. Another one of his reliable sources of funding might soon dry up: he has been a favorite of Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.)’s Every Republican Is Crucial (ERIC) PAC, which has planted $50,000 in his campaign coffers and given $5,000 to his leadership PAC. Koch Industries also figures as one of his largest donors, giving a total of $34,000 to his two committees. He has also been receiving major contributions from the telecommunications industry ever since he first introduced a bill to deregulate the television market in 2011.

Two other names — Reps. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) and Raul Labrador (R-Idaho) — are also being mentioned as possible challengers. Whether either has a serious shot is not clear, but one or both could complicate the race for Scalise or Roskam. Neither, however, has major fundraising chops.

Stutzman, who came to the House when he won a special election in 2010 after a failed run for Senate, has raised $832,000, a relatively paltry amount. He has transferred $96,000 to the NRCC. Likewise, his leadership PAC, Marlin PAC, has managed to raise only $23,000, and he has only given $10,000 directly to other candidates. As expected for a member of the House Financial Services Committee, his campaign counts banks, insurance companies and Wall Street as major sources of cash.

Labrador is no friend of the current GOP leadership and is even more out of the money race, though that might be his appeal. His campaign has raised $358,000 so far this cycle — more in line with Dave Brat’s fundraising than with that of a member of the GOP leadership. As in Brat’s case, Labrador’s fundraising numbers are so low, it’s hard to discern a pattern — the top industry supporting his campaign so far this cycle is crop production, but it’s responsible for only $17,250. Labrador has no leadership PAC, but his campaign did give Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) $2,500 this cycle.

— Lalita Clozel contributed to this report.



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