Nationals clearly the better team

By David Schoenfield

ESPN.com

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To be honest, I have it easy. Mr. Knisley, on the other side of this debate, had to work hard, conjuring up arguments and half-truths and black magic. But explaining why the Nationals will win the NL East is like Clayton Kershaw pitching against the Rockies: 1-2-3.

1. They're already in first place. In fact, FanGraphs gives the Nationals a 73 percent chance of winning the division and the Braves a 23 percent chance. That may seem like an extreme difference considering the Nationals lead the Braves (and Marlins) by just 1½ games, but the factors in those odds include performance to date and projected performance.

The Nationals' lead is slim but when you look at some of the underlying results, you'll see they've significantly outplayed the Braves. They've outscored their opponents by 39 runs while the Braves have been outscored by 13 runs. So there's that.

But the key reason the Nationals are projected to win 89 games and the Braves 84 is the Nationals have a better talent base. There is no Aaron Harang mirage helping to anchor the pitching staff. The Braves have clear holes in the lineup -- B.J. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons all have sub-.300 on-base percentages. The only comparable hole the Nationals have is Danny Espinosa.

2. The Nationals have held on to first place despite a slew of injuries. Bryce Harper has missed 48 games, Ryan Zimmerman has missed 45, Wilson Ramos has played just 24 games. Zimmerman is back and Ramos had returned from his Opening Day broken hand, but then suffered a strained hamstring last week. Harper could return July 1 from his thumb injury.

It all adds up to a second-half surge. Once Harper is back, manager Matt Williams will have a lot of lineup flexibility and the ability to rest some of his older players on a regular basis. Zimmerman is playing left field and will likely remain there for the most part, but he can fill in at first base or third base. Anthony Rendon can slide back to second. Harper probably will play all three outfield positions. Most important, with Zimmerman, Ramos and Harper, the Nats will have the meat of their lineup together for the first time since Opening Day.

While the Nationals should then be expected to improve their run scoring, it's hard to project the Braves doing the same. For the most part, their players have performed as expected. B.J. Upton has been better than last year, but still bad. Johnson has predictably regressed. Freddie Freeman and Justin Upton have been fine. Evan Gattis has far exceeded expectations. Jason Heyward is the one guy you may see improvement from, but he hasn't been terrible.

3. Pitching, pitching, pitching. The Nationals have the second-best ERA in the majors at 3.09, behind only Oakland. Since the first two weeks of the season it's 2.79 -- nearly a run better than Atlanta's 3.66 mark. And maybe you haven't noticed but Stephen Strasburg has matched the hype of late. Over his past 10 starts, he's 5-3 but with a 2.15 ERA and a 71-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Jordan Zimmermann had a couple of rough outings early on, but in his past three starts he has allowed one run and 10 hits in 25 innings, looking like the guy who was so dominant for long stretches of 2013. Doug Fister has a 2.38 ERA over his past seven starts. Gio Gonzalez returned from the DL on Wednesday and looked shaky, but that's not a bad addition if he's now your No. 4 starter.

How can the Braves match all that? Sure, they have Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning, but guess which team has the best bullpen ERA in the majors? Yep. The Nationals.

I hope we have a race in the NL East -- with the Marlins involved as well -- but I think by early September the Nationals will be sitting pretty comfortably.