Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve looked at availability of movies and TV shows that came out in the past year. But what about movies that came two years ago? Are those more available today than they were a year ago? Let’s look at the data.

2010: Box Office Winners availability

A year ago, I went through the list of box office winners and looked at their availability online. I pulled the information again in January 2012, a full year after the initial data set. The 2012 data looked like this:

Rank Title Netflix Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD 1 Toy Story 3 Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 2 Alice in Wonderland No Yes Yes Yes Yes 3 Iron Man 2 Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 4 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 5 Inception No No No No Yes 6 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 No No No No Yes 7 Despicable Me No No No No Yes 8 Shrek Forever After No No No No Yes 9 How to Train Your Dragon No No No No Yes 10 Tangled Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 11 The Karate Kid No No Purchase only Purchase only Yes 12 Clash of the Titans No Yes Yes No Yes 13 Grown Ups No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 14 Tron Legacy Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 15 Megamind No No No No Yes 16 Little Fockers No No No No Yes 17 The Last Airbender Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 18 True Grit Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 19 Shutter Island Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 20 The Other Guys No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 21 Salt No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 22 Jackass 3D Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 23 Valentine’s Day No No Yes No Yes 24 Robin Hood No No No No Yes 25 The Expendables Yes Yes Purchase only Purchase only Yes 26 Due Date No No No No Yes 27 The Chronicle of Narnia:

Voyage of the Dawn Treader No No No No Yes 28 Date Night No No No No Yes 29 Sex and the City 2 No No No No Yes 30 The Social Network No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 31 The Book of Eli No Yes Yes No Yes 32 The Town No No No No Yes 33 Prince of Persia:

The Sands of Time Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 34 Red No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 35 Percy Jackson & The Olympians:

The Lightning Thief No Yes Yes Yes Yes 36 Paranormal Activity 2 Yes Purchase only No Purchase only Yes 37 Yogi Bear No No No No Yes 38 Eat Pray Love No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 39 Unstoppable No No No No Yes 40 Dear John No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 41 The A-team No No No No Yes 42 Knight & Day No No No No Yes 43 Black Swan No No No No Yes 44 Dinner for Schmucks No No No No Yes 45 The Fighter Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 46 The Bounty Hunter No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 47 The Tourist No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 48 Diary of a Wimpy Kid No No No No Yes 49 The Sorcerer’s Apprentice Yes Yes Purchase only Purchase only Yes 50 A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010) No No No No Yes 51 The Last Song Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 52 The Wolfman No Yes Yes Yes Yes 53 Get him to the Greek No No No No Yes 54 Resident Evil: Afterlife No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 55 Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 56 Tooth Fairy No Yes Yes Yes Yes 57 Secretariat Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 58 Easy A No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 59 Takers No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 60 Legend of the Guardians:

The Owls of Ga’hoole No No No No Yes 61 Life as We Know It No No No No Yes 62 Letters to Juliet No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 63 Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps No No No No Yes 64 Predators No No No No Yes 65 Hot Tub Time Machine Yes No Yes No Yes 66 Kick-Ass Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 67 The King’s Speech No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 68 Killers Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 69 Saw 3D No Yes Yes Yes Yes 70 Cop Out No Yes Yes No Yes 71 Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore No No No No Yes 72 Edge of Darkness No No No No Yes 73 Death at a Funeral No Yes Yes Purchase only Yes 74 Step-Up 3D Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 75 The Last Exorcism Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 76 Legion No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 77 The Crazies Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 78 Gulliver’s Travels No No No No Yes 79 Burlesque No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 80 For Colored Girls Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 81 The Back-up Plan No Purchase only No No Yes 82 Vampires Suck No No No No Yes 83 The American No No No No Yes 84 Green Zone No Yes Yes Yes Yes 85 Marmaduke No No No No Yes 86 Devil No No No No Yes 87 Hereafter No No No No Yes 88 When in Rome No Yes Yes Yes Yes 89 Love and Other Drugs No No No No Yes 90 She’s Out of My League No Yes Yes Yes Yes 91 Scott Pilgrim vs. the World No No No No Yes 92 Charlie St. Cloud No No No No Yes 93 Morning Glory Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 94 Daybreakers Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 95 How Do You Know No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 96 Nanny McPhee Returns No No No No Yes 97 The Switch No Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 98 Brooklyn’s Finest Yes Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Yes 99 Machete No No No No Yes 100 Ramona and Beezus No No No No Yes

Aggregate Rental data

When you tally it up, the rental only chart (excluding movies you can purchase) looks as follows:

Netflix Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD Top 10 3 1 1 1 10 Top 25 9 4 4 2 25 top 50 13 7 6 3 50 Top 100 26 15 15 15 100

The data seems to show that hits from over a year ago are still difficult to get. Netflix fares best, capturing 26% of the titles but pay-per-view services like Amazon, iTunes, and Vudu turn in a paltry offering with only 15% of the 2010 box office winners being available for rent on these services.

So, having run the data for 2 years in a row, are we seeing improvements in the market?

Rankings 2010 2011 Difference Netflix Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD Netflix Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD Netflix Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD Top 10 1 7 7 7 8 3 1 1 1 10 +2 -6 -6 -6 +2 Top 25 2 14 14 15 18 9 4 4 2 25 +7 -10 -10 -13 +7 Top 50 4 26 25 26 35 13 7 6 3 50 +9 -19 -19 -23 +15 Top 100 10 50 46 47 75 26 15 15 9 100 +16 -35 -31 -38 +25

The picture here actually shows something fairly disastrous to people who hope that things are improving in terms of availability of movies along the long tail. While Netflix turns in a stronger performance, more than doubling availabilities of 2010 box office winners from 10 to 26, all other online services are seeing availability drop by 31% or more. This means that almost one third fewer 2010 box office winners are available this year as rentals as compared to last year. The strategy here seems to call in question the existence of a long tail in terms of media availability as far as rentals are concerned.

While the cost of storing a movie is a marginal one, it appears studios prefer to not make titles available as rentals online. There is some humor in the fact that whatever corner DVD rental place is still in existence near your home probably has a higher selection of available titles from 2010 than could be found last year because ALL 2010 box office winners are now available on DVD.

Aggregate Rental and Sales data

So, with a strong suspicion that sales numbers may be better, let’s see what happens if we had movies that may not be available for rent but can be purchase (ie. are more expensive to get)

Netflix Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD Top 10 3 5 4 5 10 Top 25 9 15 15 15 25 top 50 13 27 22 26 50 Top 100 26 56 51 54 100

The first one notices here is that the number of titles legally available online is still relatively low a full year after all the titles have been released. While DVDs have come out, legal online streaming services online offer a bit over half of the 2010 box office winners, with Amazon having the most extensive catalog. The availability of legal movie streams, when compared to DVD, is still a challenge.

But have things improved since last year? To figure that out, let’s look at the availability of the same titles over the last couple of years:

Rankings 2010 2011 Difference Netflix Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD Netflix Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD Netflix Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD Top 10 1 7 8 8 8 3 5 4 5 10 +2 -2 -4 -3 +2 Top 25 2 16 16 17 18 9 15 15 15 25 +7 -1 -1 -2 +7 Top 50 4 29 29 30 35 13 27 22 26 50 +9 -2 -7 -4 +15 Top 100 10 58 59 58 75 26 56 51 54 100 +16 -2 -8 -4 +25

My initial hunch was that we would have seen improvements in the sales of legal streams from one year to the next, just as we would would have seen for DVDs because of availability.

But the picture is actually surprising as the availability of legal streams for 2010 box office winners has dropped in the last 12 months. On their face, one might expect sales of legal online streams to see patterns similar to sales of DVDs, even if they would trail the plastic medium. But what’s surprising here is that it appears studios have decided to pull their movie catalogs back offline.

There is still a long way before legal online streaming matches DVD sales as it appears movie studios are still addicted to selling pieces of plastic than they are to selling movies in any form available.

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