Recent oil production figures from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, simply don't add up.

There are competing explanations for this inconsistency. Some analysts claim that the increase in oil production Saudi officials promised in late February to compensate for lost Libyan supplies was fictitious. Statements from the Saudis themselves imply that the kingdom cut its production several weeks later much more sharply than reported. But either scenario contradicts previous statements from Saudi officials.

This...