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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000045 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CA, PGOV SUBJECT: OPERATION THUNDERING POUTINE: EMBASSY OTTAWA'S INFORMAL ELECTION OBSERVATION MISSION HITS THE HUSTINGS OTTAWA 00000045 001.2 OF 003 1. (SBU) Summary: In an effort to penetrate the headlines and polls, Embassy Poloff and PolFSN visited local Ontario and Quebec campaign headquarters to talk with candidates, campaign managers, and volunteers. The resultant worm's-eye view of the campaign revealed the importance of local issues and often local personalities to the party's strategy for victory, no complaints or concerns about the winter and holiday campaign (other than its length), generally better organization and use of technology in the Conservative headquarters but better ability to mobilize young people among the Liberals, little interest in the U.S. as an issue, and the emergence of law and order as an topic of unexpected prominence. Everyone we spoke with agreed that the campaign really began in earnest only in January, and in ridings that are strongly contested there is a growing amount of energy as the crucial final push gets underway. Even in ridings that appear firmly in one camp, however, nothing is being taken for granted. En d Summary 2. (SBU) Deployment Order 1 Operation Thundering Poutine, Phase I Mission: Visit Ontario and Quebec campaign headquarters and get a sense for how this election really looks on the ground in the National Capital Region. Unit of Assignment: Embassy Political Section Logistics: One Embassy Ford Taurus, one tank of gas, unlimited supply of Tim Horton's coffee and donuts Length of Deployment: December 20 to January 5 (with time off for holidays) 3. (SBU) Embassy Poloff and PolFSN hit the local hustings over the past several weeks to talk to campaign managers and candidates in the Vanier, Ottawa Center, Gatineau, Nepean, and Nepean-Carlton ridings. The visits were generally well received, with campaign organizers anxious to share their view of how the campaign is progressing and their strategy for victory. ISSUES--ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL, BUT THE BACKDROP IS NATIONAL --------------------------------------------- -------------- 4. (SBU) There was a wide variety of issues that campaign organizers said they were hearing from voters. Nepean candidate John Baird said he saw health, a desire for change, crime and corruption as being the key issues while his Liberal counterpart believes the bottom line will be the strength of the economy and the preservation of health care. All ridings had at least one purely local issue that voters were reportedly concerned about and were interested in how the various candidates would take up that issue with Ottawa on their behalf. In Barrhaven, for example, there is a key question about the status of a local hospital, in Vanier, the fate of a local military facility, in Ottawa Center, the area's status with the National Capital Commission. There were also, especially in the more educated ridings, certain "boutique" issues -- foreign assistance was cited in Ottawa center for example, as was funding for the CBC. There was also concern about how otherwise national issues would effect local voters -- i n Nepean-Carleton, which is a mixed suburban-urban riding, voters in Barrhaven (known locally as "Babyhaven") were concerned with day care policies, while their rural neighbors Qconcerned with day care policies, while their rural neighbors were concerned with the gun registry. 5. (SBU) But national themes were ever looming. Health care, specifically reduction of wait times, was one of the few issues that was universally mentioned. Even before the Boxing Day shooting there was talk of crime and gun violence as secondary issues, but in ridings we visited after the holidays law and order had emerged as a key issue. Some of what we were told of course reflected what the parties hoped to hear -- the Liberal campaign manager in Nepean told us she thought voters were still focused on the strength of the economy and not wanting to rock the prosperity boat, while her counterpart on the Conservative side said he was hearing a strong desire for change and and and end to corruption. Another issue that resonates in certain ridings is immigration, particularly how to best manage the integration of immigrants in ridings with large numbers of recent OTTAWA 00000045 002.2 OF 003 arrivals, and how Canadians can sponsor family members as new immigrants. ISSUES, PARTY, OR CANDIDATE? ---------------------------- 6. (SBU) We asked every campaigner whether they believed the key factor in their riding was the personality of the candidate or the national issues of the party they represented, and were given mixed views. The campaign manager for the Conservative candidate in Vanier said that he believes there are very few ridings where the candidate wins based on his own personal merits, and that voters only factor in the local candidate on the margins of their decision. But two other local ridings show the importance of the candidate's local credentials. Conservative Pierre Poilievre unseated Defense Minister David Pratt in Nepean-Carleton in the last election in a huge upset by simply being on site far more than the incumbent and showing that he would be more focused on the community's issues (especially those of rural voters) than carrying out cabinet duties. He reportedly is expected to now control this previously Liberal riding for as long as he wants it. In his campaign, it is all about Pierre, not the Conservat ive party. The highly popular NDP candidate Ed Broadbent returned to politics in Ottawa Center after a 12 year absence in 2004 and easily unseated the Liberal incumbent, again based on personal, not party appeal. But in other races there was a clear effort to campaign on the coattails of the party or party leader -- Ottawa Center Liberal candidate Mahoney is clearly linked to "Paul Martin's Liberals" and Nepean Conservative candidate John Baird is running on the National Conservative "Time for Change" platform. U.S. NOT A FACTOR, YET ---------------------- 7. (SBU) The U.S. was not seen to be an issue anywhere (and we don't think this is because people were just trying to be polite because in some cases they really weren't all that polite). The campaign manager for Gatineau Bloc candidate Richard Nadeau said that while the softwood lumber issue might generate some anti-American sentiment in the campaign further north in lumber country, it is simply not an issue here. She said that there were too many immediate issues to allow something as abstract as relations with the U.S. to be a factor. Everyone else we spoke with essentially agreed. The bottom line was they couldn't see any angle to U.S. relations that gave one party an advantage, so the candidates at the local level were simply leaving it alone. None were being fed any American content from national campaign headquarters. WINTER CAMPAIGN? NO PROBLEM --------------------------- 8. (SBU) There was no grousing from anyone about the winter campaign, although there were certain logistical adjustments that had to be made. Nepean candidate Baird made the point that the length of the campaign is the real issue, since the amount of money a candidate may spend is the same for a 28 day as a 56 day campaign. Outlays for rent, phones, internet, even signs had to be spread out and budgets rigidly adhered to. With the advent of the 2003 campaign finance reform there is a limit on what a local riding can spend - Qreform there is a limit on what a local riding can spend - Baird said it is currently CN$81,000, with strict limits on campaign contributions -- CN$5,000 from corporations and CN$1,000 from individuals. Funding comes either from local fund-raising, party fund-raising, or the national coffers which are proportionally stocked by the government with CN$1.75 per vote in the most recent election. In ridings that are in play, such as Ottawa Center, it was clear that the national parties made sure the local ridings had the full amount of funding, wh ile in ridings such as Vanier, which the Liberals have won in every election since 1930, the Conservative candidate appeared to be left largely to raise what he could on his own. There is clearly a prioritization of scarce resources. 9. (SBU) The winter also had an impact on how candidates campaign, although apparently only on the margins. Amazingly, door-knocking, even in a winter campaign, is still OTTAWA 00000045 003.2 OF 003 seen as one of the most important tasks for getting elected. While the Liberal and Bloc candidates in Gatineau said they did look for venues that would bring together several dozen or optimally several hundred persons indoors, they also scheduled time each day to knock doors. Both campaign managers in Ottawa Center said that they actually limit the number of group events because it takes time away from door knocking. Debates are accepted as necessary evils but are generally limited because they are seen as merely "preaching to the converted." They believe that making the effort to contact voters directly is simply expected in this riding and there is no substitute for knocking doors. The trick is to do so quickly and efficiently and candidates have come up with ingenious ways to manage the issue of escaping heat without getting drawn in to houses and losing precious time. 10. (SBU) Most ridings also have four party debates and candidates looked for formal and informal events that would have the maximum impact. On all campaign schedules there were a number of events for senior citizen voters, visits to old folks homes, bridge tournaments, etc. The offices were also largely staffed during the daytime with the older volunteers, and this was clearly a key constituency for candidates and a key source of volunteers. GEARING UP FOR THE FINALE ------------------------- 11. (SBU) Energy levels in the campaign headquarters varied widely -- some were flush with volunteers and activity while one had only the candidate's spouse getting ready to go put up signs. Several of the Conservative ridings evinced a very corporate atmosphere, with very well-organized phone and computer banks and scores of volunteers. Nepean candidate Baird said that Stephen Harper brought to the Conservative party a more sophisticated use of technology in campaigning that is helping all local ridings to better identify their target audience and get the message out (although one American Emboff who was sent something by the Conservatives as a registered voter questions this). The strong Liberal ridings such as Ottawa Center were also very well organized and energetic, and benefited from large numbers of young volunteers from local universities. The Liberals have an organized youth wing which the Conservatives opted not to develop so as not to "ghettoize" youth in the party; at a time like this the abil ity to muster the Young Liberals of Canada appears to be a definite asset. While one Liberal staffer almost dismissed youths as big talkers rather than big voters, there can be no doubt the Liberals mobilize the YLC to their full advantage -- a ready-made, educated, and enthusiastic work force. 12. (SBU) Comment: In the last election some 100 ridings were won by less than 1,000 votes. Candidates from parties in the third of the country's ridings that lost by low margins in the last election see this as an opportunity while those from winning parties see it as a clear threat. It is leading few candidates at this point to take anything for granted and the campaign's energy level is beginning to grow. The Conservatives have now seemingly pulled even with the Q The Conservatives have now seemingly pulled even with the Liberals in national polls, and at both the local and the national levels the contest will intensify over the coming weeks, especially in those key 25 or so southern Ontario ridings that will determine the next government. Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa WILKINS