REGINA — If you want to avoid the headache of a water main break, you might want to steer clear of making Whitmore Park or Hillsdale home.

According to an analysis conducted by the Leader-Post of all water main breaks reported between January 2009 and Nov. 10, 2014, that southeast quadrant was the most prone to breaks during that period.

“It’s just the nature of the soil that we have here,” said Mayor Michael Fougere. “Unless we were to remove all the clay and replace it with sand, we’re going to have this kind of problem.”

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Ah, clay: That pesky substance. Clay absorbs and releases moisture, expanding and contracting in the process and shifting the ground. It is highly susceptible to rainfall, frost and changes in temperature.

The low-lying Whitmore Park-Hillsdale area was once a slough, so it is one of the wetter areas of the city. It’s also one of the oldest, with many pipes having reached — or approaching — their 40- to 50-year life expectancy.

The Leader-Post’s analysis shows other pockets with repeated problems: A triangle formed by Park Street, Arcola Avenue and the Trans-Canada Highway; Argyle Road, especially near Whitmore and Westgate avenues; and Garnet, Retallack and Cameron north of 7th Avenue, to name a few.

Despite these patterns, Fougere said the breaks are “systemic in that they happen everywhere and there’s no way to predict where they will happen.”

In 2014, Regina residents faced 183 water main breaks. Number crunching of breaks over the past five years — 1,061 total — indicate September is the worst month for water mains. Fougere explained that’s because drier weather in autumn causes clay to contract and crack, affecting the pipes. The first three months of the year can be harsh on pipes, too, because of frost penetration.

Over the past two years, flooding and frost have been partly to blame for the breaks, but neither year came close to the 2012 tally of 306.

“Officials are saying there is no indication it’s getting worse over time but, that being said, our infrastructure is getting older ...” said Fougere.

All of those water main breaks don’t surprise Coun. Barbara Young, whose ward covers Whitmore Park and Hillsdale. She said the issue often comes up with residents in the area. She wonders at what point the city should invest in infrastructure upgrades over patchwork repairs, which she said suck city resources.

The city is currently working on a master plan for its water system that will evaluate the city’s most vulnerable areas, which need the most attention, and how to go about preventing water main breaks in the future.

“Do we have enough resources to do replacement (everywhere)? Pretty difficult to do that,” said Fougere, citing the city’s $2-billion infrastructure deficit. “Rather than be digging everything up all the time, we’re trying to find a way that’s more cost effective and that (would be the) relining of these pipes as opposed to digging them out of the ground.”

The city has added a liner to 4.3 kilometres of pipes since 2009.

Fougere said the master plan is critical to helping city council make some long-term decisions on infrastructure issues.