With “unusually high” activity levels of the Russian navy in the North Sea and the English Channel, it might be tempting to picture a menacing Moscow, with President Vladimir Putin directing operations from a position of total control. But that would be wrong. This show of strength comes at a time of Russian anxiety in the face of the coronavirus pandemic – and Putin’s own succession problem.

Russia’s political leadership has only recently started to acknowledge the severity of coronavirus. In an address to the nation on 25 March, Putin reluctantly postponed a nationwide vote on constitutional changes that would allow him to remain in power as president until 2036. He said the vote would be held once the epidemiological situation has improved. The worry for the regime, though, is that developments in popular opinion might make holding a vote risky. The poll will be widely seen as a plebiscite on Putin personally – and, if economic woes associated with falling oil prices, a weaker rouble, and the coronavirus worsen, then Russians could well take out their anger at the ballot box.

Putin is already in a vulnerable situation. According to data from an independent Russian polling agency, the Levada Centre, Putin’s approval rating has dropped markedly from February to March this year. His approval figures now hover around level​s last seen before Russia’s annexation of Crimea​ in 2014. This event produced an enormous rallying around the flag effect in the country – ​and Putin’s approval ratings soared.