Donald Trump has targeted key Senate seats as Republicans look to keep hold of the upper chamber. Odds are, they will

On Sunday, Donald Trump admitted it: he has been focusing his midterms campaign effort on the Senate, where the electoral map favours his Republican party.

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“I think we’re going to do well in the House,” the president told reporters, on leaving the White House for a rally in Georgia. “But, as you know, my primary focus has been on the Senate, and I think we’re doing really well in the Senate.”

Republicans have a huge advantage as they seek to hold or expand their 51-49 majority in the upper chamber, as the battle for control runs mostly through states Trump won in 2016.

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Out of the 35 Senate contests taking place on Tuesday, 10 involve Democratic incumbents seeking re-election in states Trump won, often by large margins. He has therefore spent much of the final week before the election traveling to those states, in the hope that it will nudge his supporters to the polls.

Democratic hopes of taking the Senate hinge on nearly all of their incumbents winning – a difficult task – and on flipping seats in a few states that lean Republican, most notably Arizona, Tennessee and Texas.

Here is a list of key races to watch, listed in order of poll-closing times:

Indiana

Democrat Joe Donnelly is trying to fend off Republican Mike Braun in a state that Trump won by 19%. Indiana’s lone statewide-elected Democrat has sought to align himself with Trump on the hot-button issue of expanding the border wall with Mexico. Otherwise, he has portrayed himself as a moderate who works with both parties to pass legislation. “I go against my party all the time,” he said recently.

Braun has sought to question Donnelly’s independence and describe him as a career politician. He notes that Donnelly supported Hillary Clinton’s bid for the presidency and sided with the vast majority of Democratic senators in voting against the confirmation of the supreme court justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Polls close 7pm ET (12am UK)

West Virginia

Joe Manchin is a former governor in search of a second full Senate term as a Democrat representing a state that supported Trump by a whopping 42% in 2016. His opponent is Patrick Morrisey, a two-term state attorney general and staunch Trump supporter who has called Manchin a liberal who only acts bipartisan around election day.

Manchin has made maintaining healthcare protections for pre-existing conditions a main focus of his campaign and has hit Morrisey for joining a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). He was the only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh and also voted for Trump’s first supreme court nominee, Neil Gorsuch.

Polls close 7.30pm ET (12.30am UK)

Florida

Democrat Bill Nelson is seeking a fourth term. The Republican governor, Rick Scott, has spent millions of dollars out of his own fortune to help fund his campaign. He has said that he would work to cut taxes and regulation if sent to Washington.

The two have clashed sharply on gun violence, a big issue in Florida following the February shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas high school. Nelson has stressed that he favors a ban on military-style assault weapons and implementing a comprehensive system of background checks. Scott signed legislation that requires anyone wanting to buy a gun to be 21 years old, but the bill didn’t include a ban on assault weapons. The two have also differed on healthcare, with Nelson calling for strengthening the ACA but Scott calling the law deeply flawed and costly.

Polls close 8pm ET (1am UK)

Missouri

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Claire McCaskill greets supporters in Fulton, Missouri. Photograph: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Claire McCaskill is running for a third term, against the Republican state attorney general, Josh Hawley. Trump won Missouri by nearly 19% and the state has shifted from a battleground to strongly Republican in recent elections.

McCaskill is touting herself as a moderate: “Claire’s not one of those crazy Democrats. She works right in the middle and finds compromise,” says one of her recent radio ads. Hawley has tried to cast McCaskill as a “party-line liberal”. The candidates have also tangled over Hawley joining a lawsuit filed by a group of Republican attorneys general to overturn the ACA. Trump has traveled several times to Missouri to campaign for Hawley, repeatedly describing the 38-year-old as a “star”.

Polls close 8pm ET (1am UK)

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New Jersey

Robert Menendez is facing a tough re-election fight which has nothing to do with Trump: allegations of corruption have alienated some New Jersey voters. The Democrat’s bribery trial ended last year with a hung jury and prosecutors decided not to retry the case, but the Senate ethics committee followed up with a report that said Menendez’s actions advancing the personal and business interests of a top donor “reflected discredit upon the Senate”. Democratic groups have nonetheless spent millions in the state to boost Menendez in his race against Republican Bob Hugin, a former pharmaceutical executive who has tapped his own wallet for $24m to finance a TV-ad-heavy campaign.

Democrats have more than 900,000 additional registered voters than Republicans in New Jersey, and Trump’s low ratings in the Garden State could give Menendez a boost.

Polls close 8pm ET (1am UK)

Tennessee

Republican representative Marsha Blackburn is running against the former two-term Democratic governor Phil Bredesen in a state Trump won by 26%. Blackburn would be the state’s first female senator. She has served eight terms in the House and is viewed as one of the more conservative members of that chamber.

Bredesen is trying to brandish his credentials as a centrist. He has said he will support or oppose Trump based on his specific ideas and how they affect Tennessee. The two are running to replace retiring Bob Corker, a Republican who has frequently clashed with Trump.

Polls close 8pm ET (1am UK)

Arizona

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Kyrsten Sinema talks to volunteers at a get-out-the-vote phone bank in Phoenix, Arizona. Photograph: Bob Christie/AP

Democrats have high hopes for flipping this seat, where representative Kyrsten Sinema is running against Republican representative Martha McSally for the seat left open when Jeff Flake, a sharp critic of Trump, opted to retire, acknowledging that he could not win a primary in the current political climate.

McSally is a former air force fighter pilot who represents a moderate district based in Tucson. Sinema represents a district in the Phoenix suburb of Tempe and is a former Green party activist who transformed herself into a centrist Democrat. She has one of the most conservative voting records among Democrats in Congress and presents herself as a nonpartisan problem-solver.

Polls close 9pm ET (2am UK)

North Dakota

Heidi Heitkamp is trying to fend off a strong challenge from Republican representative Kevin Cramer in a state Trump won by 36%. Heitkamp has sought to draw differences with Cramer on healthcare and trade. She says she is working to improve the ACA while he’s been working to eliminate it.

Cramer has argued that Trump’s approach on trade must be given time to work. Heitkamp’s campaign stumbled when it identified victims of domestic violence, sexual abuse and rape in an ad. Heitkamp apologized after she learned that several of the women named either hadn’t authorized being named or were not survivors of abuse.

Polls close 9pm ET (2am UK)

Texas

Republican Ted Cruz is seeking a second term against Democratic representative Beto O’Rourke, a rising star who has shattered Senate campaign fundraising records despite shunning donations from outside political groups.

O’Rourke is trying to become Texas’s first Democrat to win statewide office since 1994, but faces long odds given the advantage that GOP candidates have in statewide elections. Cruz has made nice with Trump despite the ugly words they exchanged during the presidential campaign in 2016. Trump held a campaign rally for Cruz in Houston, calling the candidate “Beautiful Ted”.

Polls close 9pm ET (2am UK)

Montana

Democrat Jon Tester is seeking a third term against Republican Matt Rosendale, Montana’s auditor. Trump has invested heavily in the race with four trips to a state he won by more than 20%. Rosendale has returned the admiration, describing himself as a Trump conservative.

Trump has blamed Tester for derailing the nomination of the White House doctor Ronny Jackson to head the veterans affairs department. Facing all the GOP’s firepower, Tester has stuck with the populist approach that worked for him in 2006 and 2012, highlighting his life as a grain farmer and even the three fingers he lost as a child in a meat grinder.

Polls close 10pm ET (3am UK)

Nevada

Republican Dean Heller is seeking a second full term against Democratic representative Jacky Rosen in the one true battleground state that features a Republican incumbent.

Heller and Trump have embraced each other after a rocky start, with both highlighting their desire to get more of the president’s judicial nominees confirmed, a top priority for many social conservatives. Heller is the only Republican running for re-election in a state Clinton carried in 2016. Rosen is a first-term congresswoman who could benefit from a wave of Democratic and female activism fueled by opposition to Trump.