San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have a championship pedigree of their own, winning five NBA titles since the 1998-99 season, but the soul of their team, Tim Duncan, retired, and their backcourt continues to get older.

Holdovers Manu Ginobili (39 years old) and Tony Parker (34 years old) are clearly on the downside of their careers. Ginobili played a career-low 19.3 minutes per game last season and excelled only when he was asked to be the team’s spot-up shooter (58.7 effective field goal percentage). When asked to handle the ball on the pick-and-roll or make a cut to the basket, he was, at best, average. Parker also played a career-low in minutes last season (27.3 per game) while averaging his lowest usage (21.2 percent of possessions) since his rookie season.

AD

AD

But even without Duncan and the older rotation of guards, the Spurs should contend with the Warriors for the No. 1 spot in the West thanks to Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge.

Leonard, a two-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year and former NBA Finals MVP, might be the best two-way player in the NBA. He was used on a career-high 25.8 percent of the team’s possessions last season and scored 1.149 points per possession, No. 3 among players with at least 1,000 possessions, behind Curry (1.177) and J.J. Redick (1.175). On defense Leonard allowed 0.787 points per possessions and led the position in ESPN’s defensive real plus minus (plus-3.88), a player’s net point differential per 100 defensive possessions after taking into account teammates and opponents.

Aldridge dominated the post, scoring on more than half of his possessions while grabbing three contested rebounds per game. And he was equally efficient driving to the basket as he was stepping out for a fade-away jumper. The Warriors were excellent at defending the low post (0.82 points allowed per possession, No. 5 in NBA) but the Cavaliers weren’t (0.85 points allowed per possession, No. 14), leaving them vulnerable in a head-to-head matchup should those two teams square off in the finals.

It will be up to Aldridge to pick up the production that Duncan left behind, but Pau Gasol, the team’s new starting center, will likely get some of Duncan’s minutes too.

AD

AD

Duncan was limited to a career-low 25 minutes per game last season, but the 35-year-old Gasol logged almost 32 minutes per game and was one of the better passing big men in the NBA as a member of the Chicago Bulls last season. He averaged 4.1 assists per game in 2015-16 and raised his points per possession from 0.922 to 1.18 after you account for his ability to pass the ball. Adding Gasol to David Lee and Dewayne Dedmon gives the Spurs the frontcourt they need to be among the league’s elite.

Los Angeles Clippers

Chris Paul is one of the best point guards in the NBA. He can score (19.5 points per game), pass (10 assists per game) and rebound (4.2 per game), and is equally comfortable handling the ball during the pick-and-roll (0.94 points per possession) as he is posting up opponents (1.2 points per possession). And only James is expected to be more valuable to his team than Paul per early RPM projections from ESPN.

But any chance the Clippers have of dethroning the Warriors starts with Blake Griffin remaining healthy and effective. He played just 35 games last season and, when healthy, produced his lowest true shooting percentage to date (54.4 percent). Griffin was at his worst on pull-up jumpers (31.8 effective field goal percentage) and had a lower eFG% on wide-open shots (46.4 percent) than he did when a defender was within two (53.6 percent) or four (56.1 percent) feet.

AD

AD

Los Angeles also needs Green’s domination of Griffin to end. When these two go head to head, Golden State outscores Griffin and the Clippers by 6.7 net points per 100 possessions.

Surprisingly, having Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who now has three consecutive seasons of at least 13.6 rebounds per game, led to the team finishing the season ahead of only the Philadelphia 76ers in rebound percentage (47.4 percent), leading to offseason additions Marreese Speights (3.3 rebounds per game), Brandon Bass (4.3 per game) and first-round pick Brice Johnson (10.4 rebounds per game as a senior with North Carolina).

Redick, meanwhile, led the NBA in three-point percentage last season, which will help stretch the floor against any team in the league.

Boston Celtics

AD

Cleveland’s stranglehold on the Eastern Conference will be tested by the likes of Atlanta and Toronto, but Boston might be the best suited to knock them off.

AD

Celtics Coach Brad Stevens has steadily improved this young team into a playoff contender the last two years, and the addition of Al Horford could be the catalyst that allows Boston to finally make it out of the first round.

Horford showed an ability to shoot from behind the arc, taking 3.1 three-point shots per game while making 34.4 percent of them, and is also adept at scoring in transition, often getting to the rim without resistance.

The Cavaliers and Warriors didn’t have many weaknesses on defense last year, but both struggled against teams in transition, allowing the 18th and 19th most points per possession, respectively.

AD

Boston also has All-Star Isaiah Thomas, who set a career high in points per game (22.2) and win shares per 48 minutes (0.177) last season. But the biggest upside may come from Jae Crowder.

AD

Crowder averaged 14.2 points and 5.1 rebounds per game in 2015-16 and the early RPM projections from ESPN has him as the league’s 18th best player, ahead of Harford (No. 24), Kelly Olynyk (No. 33) and Amir Johnson (No. 49). A slick passer, Crowder created 4.2 points per game off assists and raised his efficiency from 1.04 to 1.18 points per possession via his ball distribution.

And don’t forget rounding out the roster are role players like Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart along with Jaylen Brown, a lottery pick in the 2016 NBA draft.