Victoria election 2014: Political leaders rate poorly in trust ranking, Vote Compass reveals

Updated

Leadership appears unlikely to be a deciding factor in the Victorian election, with little separating voter assessments of the major party leaders in the ABC's Vote Compass survey.

When asked "How trustworthy do you find the leaders?" Premier Denis Napthine scored 4.1 out of 10, Daniel Andrews 3.9 out of 10 and Greens leader Greg Barber 3.4

The creator of Vote Compass, Cliff van der Linden, said the result was less than ideal for Labor.

"To score higher than his opponents on trustworthiness is not necessarily a boon for Dr Napthine, but is assuredly an unsettling revelation for Mr Andrews' campaign," he said.

While the scores appear low they are the average of all respondents and are in line with previous Vote Compass surveys on political leadership.

In fact, the scores are better than those for Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his predecessor, Kevin Rudd, in last year's federal election campaign.

Mr Abbott scored 3.7 out of 10 on trustworthiness before he became Prime Minister compared to Mr Rudd's 3.3.

"While the inference should not be overstated," Mr van der Linden said.

"It does imply a slightly more favourable view of state politicians than of their federal counterparts."

On the question of competence Dr Napthine outscored Daniel Andrews, 4.5 to 4.0.

The Premier, who represents the electorate of South-West Coast taking in Warrnambool and Portland, enjoys greater support from country Victorians who rate him more highly than city residents on both trustworthiness and competence.

Historically, there is an advantage for an incumbent political leader with this question.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said Dr Napthine's higher scores did not mean he brought any leadership advantage to the electoral contest.

Mr Green warned the last three Victorian premiers to come to office mid-term - Lindsay Thompson, Joan Kirner and John Brumby - all led their parties to electoral defeat.

"Joan Kirner and John Brumby both led their election opponents as preferred Premier, but both led their governments to defeat," he said.

Mr Green said leadership was unlikely to be a factor in the election result.

"The election is becoming a balancing act for voters between perceptions of the government's record in office, against fear that the opposition would do worse if elected," he said.

FAQ

What is this?

The ABC launched Vote Compass Victoria on Sunday November 2, in the lead-up to the state election.

It is a tool that allows voters to see how their views compare to the parties' policies.

The data was weighted across a range of demographic factors using the latest population estimates to be a true representation of opinion at the time of the field.

The findings are based on 60,111 respondents to Vote Compass from November 2 to November 18, 2014.

Vote Compass is not a random sample. Why are the results being represented as though it is a poll?

Vote Compass is not a poll. It is fundamentally an educational tool intended to promote electoral literacy and stimulate public engagement in the policy aspect of election campaigns.

That said, respondents' views as expressed through Vote Compass can add a meaningful dimension to our understanding of public attitudes and an innovative new medium for self-expression. Ensuring that the public has a decipherable voice in the affairs of government is a critical function of a robust democracy.

Online surveys are inherently prone to selection bias but statisticians have long been able to correct for this (given the availability of certain variables) by drawing on population estimates such as Census micro-data.

The ABC applies sophisticated weighting techniques to the data to control for the selection effects of the sample, enabling us to make statistical inferences about the Australian population with a high degree of confidence.

How can you stop people from trying to game the system?

There are multiple safeguards in place to ensure the authenticity of each record in the dataset.

Vote Compass does not make its protocols in this regard public so as not to aid those that might attempt to exploit the system, but among standard safeguards such as IP address logging and cookie tracking, it also uses time codes and a series of other measures to prevent users from gaming the system.

Topics: state-parliament, elections, vic

First posted