Hail To The Nominee!

But Beware The Gnats

WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, March 7) -- Sen. Robert Dole's overwhelming win in New York cements what most assumed was inevitable from the start -- that the Kansan will challenge President Bill Clinton next fall. Early primary stumbles are history; he's hit his stride.

Honey, Where's the Advil? But, wait, not so fast. Despite resounding losses tonight, the campaign's two most successful idea-men, conservative commentator Pat Buchanan and publisher Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes, Jr., are vowing to press on. They could, in fact, cause more problems for Dole along the campaign trail, especially in California, where a three-man race could be dicey.

Add to that Dole's money problem -- he's butting up against the $37-million spending limit for recipients of federal matching funds -- and the senator's headaches aren't all gone.

Big Al, Secretary of State? Dole had a lot of help in New York. He benefited from a GOP establishment that, almost to a person, lined up behind him. For that, he can thank New York's most powerful politician, feisty Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, famed Senate Whitewater grand inquistor. What role does will D'Amato get in a Dole administration? D'Amato's machine was a tremendous benefit to Dole, from collecting the thousands of signatures needed to qualify for the ballot in each district, all the way to getting bodies out to vote today.

Flatter Than the Flat Tax: Facing New York's Republican Goliath, Forbes played a respectable David just getting on the ballot. He called it a "moral victory," and he may have at least ended New York's tradition of fixed primary battles. But his loss here has likely dealt the deathblow to any credible challenge, at least among the remaining contenders, to Dole.

Never viewed as a viable candidate by GOP elders, Forbes hoped to restart his drive, spending heavily in New York -- $3 million in ads and $1 million to get on the ballot. In the end, neither that nor a late-game endorsement by GOP heavyweight Jack Kemp proved enough to stem the Republican tide flowing toward Dole.

Pat Stands Pat: Conservative firebrand Pat Buchanan has some wiggle room to defend his third-place showing. After all, he didn't make all the ballots statewide. And New York isn't Buchanan country. The former Crossfire host was stung by rhetoric as strong as his own: New York City's Republican Mayor Rudolph Giuliani held several news conferences to denounce Buchanan and urge voters to choose anyone but him.

Dole's Long March: With big-league endorsements flowing in as quickly as delegates, Dole has beaten back the naysayers and can comfortably cruise through the remaining primaries as the uncontested front-runner. Look for Dole to aim his sights squarely on President Clinton and act like it's already a two-man race.

While he's more or less recast his rivals as gnarlsome gnats, Dole still faces a tough chore: energizing a coalition to defeat Clinton. It won't be easy. Just a day after his Junior Tuesday triumph, Dole's lackluster remarks after Texas Gov. George W. Bush's spirited endorsement was reminder enough that the Senate Majority Leader remains rhetorically challenged.

Though improbable, Dole could still slip. Buchanan and Forbes could complicate Dole's delegate dash, especially in California, and that could crack the door to a brokered convention.

Dole on the Dole: Fueling that scenario are Dole's financial woes. Since Dole is butting up against the $37-million limit, could he slip to Forbes, who can continue to spend freely? And how will he combat Clinton's generous campaign coffers? There are well-traveled routes around spending limits, and he's going to take most of them.

Buchanan's Barrage: "We go to San Diego, we break the doors open to this party, and we take it over." So spoke Buchanan, articulating a strategy that will make him a thorn in Dole's side, at least through the convention. Though his threat to Dole's eventual nomination is non-existent, Buchanan will have little trouble maintaining his divisive role in the GOP, as he rallies anti-abortion conservatives and rattles the Republican orthodoxy on free trade.

Forbes Not Flatlined: With the support of flat-tax enthusiast Kemp, Forbes reassumes the role he initially set out to inhabit: as a crusader for the 17-percent-no-deductions flat tax. As Buchanan tortures Dole on morality issues, so Forbes will hold Dole's feet to the fire on economics. And, remember, Forbes could yet pull the unthinkable -- a serious comeback -- by spending enough to score upsets in delegate-rich states like Texas, California and Florida. Especially if GOPers have buyers' remorse with Dole.

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