State of the Program for March 23rd 2018

In the News

MTG Arena Announcements: Wizards announced the “next phase” of MTG Arena. They will be inviting more players (if you want to apply for the beta, go Wizards announced the “next phase” of MTG Arena. They will be inviting more players (if you want to apply for the beta, go here ) and wiping accounts so all players will start on the same footing. Wizards will also be providing all players with ten precon decks, some packs and wildcards to build collections. Wizards is adding Amonkhet and Hour of Devastation to the MTGA card pool. The announcement is here . Wizards also released a developers video on Twitch.

Wizards Announces “Brawl”: Brawl is a new format – a sort of Standard / Commander hybrid. Decks are built around a single Legendary creature or Commander, which lives in the command Zone until summoned, like in Commander. Decks are Singleton and use the Standard card pool. The announcement is Brawl is a new format – a sort of Standard / Commander hybrid. Decks are built around a single Legendary creature or Commander, which lives in the command Zone until summoned, like in Commander. Decks are Singleton and use the Standard card pool. The announcement is here

MTG Arena Precon Decklists: Wizards will give everyone in the MTGArena closed beta ten precon decks as part of their collections this time around. The decklists are Wizards will give everyone in the MTGArena closed beta ten precon decks as part of their collections this time around. The decklists are here . Note that this is still the beta, and Wizards will do at least one more account wipe before Arena goes public. For now, though, Wizards appears to be experimenting with starting new players with playable decks, not just a $10 credit or some packs.

MTGArena NDA Ends March 22: (repeat from last week) Currently, all MTGArena beta testers are subject to a non-disclosure agreement. That means that they are not allowed to talk about, sow pictures or, or stream MTGArena. That NDA is scheduled to end March 22. Expect to see videos, streams and so forth once the NDA expires. Wizards is even giving away “creator kits” to help content creators. Details Currently, all MTGArena beta testers are subject to a non-disclosure agreement. That means that they are not allowed to talk about, sow pictures or, or stream MTGArena. That NDA is scheduled to end March 22. Expect to see videos, streams and so forth once the NDA expires. Wizards is even giving away “creator kits” to help content creators. Details here . If you want to apply for the beta, go here

The Timeline

This is a list of things we have been promised, or we just want to see coming back. Another good source for dates and times is the calendar and the weekly blog, while the best source for known bugs is the bug blog which appears sporadically on MTGO.com. Not listed, but important: Wizards offers either one or two online PTQs each weekend, with qualifiers running the three days prior to the PTQ.

Upcoming Events Dates Scheduled Downtimes March 28th and April 18th (both extended) Constructed Leagues End April 18, 2018 Sealed Leagues End April 23, 2018 Dominaria April 23, 2018 Core Set Magic 2019 July 13, 2018 Next B&R Announcement April 16, 2018 SOI and EMN Redemption Ends April 28, 2018 Ixalan Redemption Ends May 23, 2018 Rivals of Ixalan Redemption Ends May 23, 2018

WotC Covered Events

Wizards will be streaming a number of events next year, including all four Pro Tours, the Magic Championship and World Magic Cup, along with 35 Grand Prix. Since Wizards does not schedule premier events on prerelease weekends and certain holidays, that means they will be streaming an event nearly every weekend. Here’s the schedule we have so far.

· April 6–8: Grand Prix Seattle (double-GP weekend)

· April 14–15: Grand Prix Memphis

· April 28–29: Grand Prix Bologna

· May 5–6: Grand Prix Dallas

· May 11–13: Grand Prix Birmingham (double-GP weekend)

· May 26–27: Grand Prix Washington, DC

· June 1–3: Pro Tour Dominaria in Richmond, Virginia

· June 9–10: Grand Prix Copenhagen

· June 15–17: Grand Prix Las Vegas (double-GP weekend)

· June 23–24: Grand Prix Pittsburgh

· July 7–8: Grand Prix São Paulo

· July 21–22: Grand Prix Sacramento

· July 28–29: Grand Prix Minneapolis

· Aug. 3–5: Pro Tour 25th Anniversary in Minneapolis, Minnesota

· Aug. 11–12: Grand Prix Brussels

· Aug. 18–19: Grand Prix Los Angeles

· Aug. 25–26: Grand Prix Prague

· Aug. 31–Sept. 2: Grand Prix Richmond (double-GP weekend)

· Sept. 8–9: Grand Prix Detroit

· Sept. 15–16: Grand Prix Stockholm

· Weekend of Sept. 23–24: 2018 Magic World Championship and Team Series Championship in Las Vegas, Nevada (exact event dates TBD)

· Oct. 6–7: Grand Prix Montreal

· Oct. 13–14: Grand Prix Denver

· Oct. 27–28: Grand Prix Lille

· Nov. 3–4: Grand Prix Atlanta

· Nov. 9–11: Pro Tour "Spaghetti" in Atlanta

· Nov. 17–18: Grand Prix Milwaukee

· Dec. 8–9: Grand Prix Liverpool

· Dec. 14–16: World Magic Cup in Barcelona, Spain

2018 Magic Online Championship Series and other events

Complete details, including schedule, rules, and which online events qualify you for which online or paper events is here . In addition, Wizards will be offering these special formats:

· March 16–April 4: Masters 25

· April 4–20: Modern Cube

· April 23rd forward: Dominaria

Magic Online Format Challenges

These are high stakes events that happen every weekend. They cost 25 Tix / 250 play points, and last a number of rounds based on participation (assume 5-8), plus a single elimination Top 8. Details, including prize payouts, are here . Start times are:

Opinion Section: Thoughts on MTGArena

The MTG Arena non-disclosure agreement ended this week. That means content creators, including me, can now stream Arena play, and write about the current beta test of the program. Until now, I have not participated in the beta, because I did not want to be restricted in what I can discuss (and because I didn’t want the hassle of keeping track of confidential and non-confidential information when discussing topics. I do more than enough of that at work.)

I have not applied to join the closed beta before now. When Wizards announced that they were lifting the NDA, I applied. Wizards hasn’t responded yet. I expect that to take a couple weeks. So, at this point, everything I know about MTG Arena is what I have seen in the developers’ streams, in articles and on the mothership. Also, Wizards is rolling out a new iteration tomorrow (as I write this – yesterday when the article gets posted.) So I haven’t kicked the tires on the actual product, yet.

What I can do is discuss what I think Wizards needs to have working to make the product a commercial success. This is still a closed beta, in early times, so a lot of things are missing – things like a couple Standard-legal card sets, sideboards, implementation of the Banned and Restricted list, and drafting. Those will arrive, eventually - we hope. I might discuss those, once I can actually play the program. What I can do is talk about what the program will need. I have been playing, organizing tournaments and writing about Magic and online Magic for two decades. I can leverage that knowledge.

Here’s what I think Wizards needs to incorporate, at a minimum, into MTG Arena.

Casual Play:

The vast, vast majority of Magic games are not played with Tier One Standard decks, or even competitive decks from any given format. The vast majority of Magic games are played between players battling with what they have made out of the cards they have. Most Magic games are unsanctioned, played between friends around the kitchen table (or in the dorm, or wherever.) Even local game stores often have a casual night, for unsanctioned play, as well as FNM and so forth.

Groups of friends usually have some method of balancing play. Players want to have a chance of winning, and won’t keep playing if they get trashed. I remember judging at GP and watching a player learn that their 150 card goblins deck was not good enough for tournament Legacy. More often, players learn how to balance game play, skill and decks. In casual night at the local game store, players discuss what level and format they want to play at, and often choose decks accordingly. Established groups do the same. For years, Ingrid and I played with another couple weekly. We built new decks every time – often theme decks (e.g “everything has pictures of skeletons”, or “all the characters from the Princess Bride.”) I tended to bring two decks, especially if I built a particularly strong or combo deck. I many conversations along the lines of



“Could you please pass me another brownie?”

“Are you going to change decks?”





It was one way our group had of balancing game play. There are others.

The point is that Arena needs some way of letting casual / new / occasional players – those that have not grinded enough wins out of the system to have tier one decks and strong format knowledge and play skills – play without getting repeatedly slaughtered. MTGO never had a good method of doing this, and the current version is terrible at it. This has killed casual play online – and with it the value of everything but the chase cards. Only 7% of the cards on MTGO sell for $1 or more, while over half of all MTGO cards sell for $0.01 or less.

What Wizards has promised is some sort of ranked matchmaking or ladder. In theory, this will create matches between players of similar abilities, wielding similar decks. It has to. Wizards is telling us that we can either invest actual cash money into the game to buy good decks, play for free and earn our decks, or do something in between. To be successful, Arena has to support all three modes, and that means that the matching algorithm has to actually work. It never did on MTGO, despite a lot of tries. (8000 room, “casual” game tags, etc, etc.) Wizards has more experience now, both its own and that of other games. We will see if they can make it work. If not, Arena is doomed.

Limited:

Arena does not yet support drafting. It will. It has too. While the overwhelming majority of all Magic games played, the majority of all Magic revenue is derived from limited, especially draft. Wizards needs to have drafts working, reliably and affordably, if Arena is to flourish. It is early in the beta, so I don’t mind too much that limited is not yet available, but it needs to appear soon. Viewers want to watch meaningful, high-level play when they watch streamers like Kenji and LSV. That could be serious Standard or limited. Serious Standard will be difficult until enough players grind or buy Tier One decks, so Wizards needs drafts to keep the streamers streaming.

A Viable Economy:

We are still in very early days, and the developer streams have not been very inspiring. The developers have been opening packs and getting lots of wildcards, and been enthusiastic about them. (As they should.) The developers have also been enthusiastic about their decks, the rares and Mythics they open, etc. (As they should.) However, it is very clear that the developers have no idea of what cards are important in the current Standard metagame. The beta testers have given them feedback, but changes are still necessary.

I just realized I had better explain wildcards here. Wildcards are cards that appear in boosters and the prize vault that can become any card of the player’s choice. Wildcards come in rarities, and players can only choose cards of that rarity. Thus, a Rare wildcard can become Vraska’s Contempt or Glorybringer. A common Wildcard can become Duress or Negate – but not Glorybringer. Wildcards are a cool idea. They allow players to build collections without grinding up cards to use as a resource. I believe the idea works. However, it is really clear that Wizards does not understand serious players, the Standard metagame, or how collections are assembled. If they did, they would never give out so many common wildcards.

In the latest stream, one of the developers said that players reported having too many common wildcards. I’m not surprised. The developer then suggested using them on the next set, which was coming out soon. That’s a great way to plug the Dominaria release, but a terrible idea overall. If players are getting too many common wildcards now, they are going to get too many next set as well.

The problem is that commons are, well, common.

Ingrid and I run prereleases at our local game store. We usually come home with two boxes of boosters. After a few hours of casual sealed, some pack wars and maybe a Winston draft or two, we have opened the packs. We usually have playsets of all the commons by then. Online, I try to do a half dozen sealed and some drafts during the first week or two after a set releases – and by the time I finish those events I have almost all the commons I need. I doubt I have bought more than a dozen commons a year for either paper of online play. If I do something similar on Arena, I doubt I would need more than a handful of common wildcards. If I have to grind my way to viable decks, that may take more, but not many more. (The current beta is, apparently, different, since limited is not an option, but that will change.)

th. In the 33 decklists, and 33 sideboards, I found 40 different commons, and only 15 of those were complete playsets. I found the staples you would expect: Negate, Duress, Shock, Magma Spray, Fragmatize, Essence Scatter, etc. UI found Sacred Cat and Jungleborn Pioneer. I found some lands – assorted common Deserts, Evolving Wilds and a Cinder Barrens. But, in general, I found very, very, very few commons in serious tournament decks. Wizards has said that they want Arena to be a place to play Standard. Standard decks don’t use many commons. For example, the GB Dinos deck I featured below (and which I chose before I started thinking about this section) contains just 8 commons: 4 Commune with Dinosaurs and 4 Duress – everything else is an uncommon, rare or Mythic. And just to make sure that that was not a fluke, I went through all the 5-0 decks in the Competitive Standard league for March 19. In the 33 decklists, and 33 sideboards, I found 40 different commons, and only 15 of those were complete playsets. I found the staples you would expect: Negate, Duress, Shock, Magma Spray, Fragmatize, Essence Scatter, etc. UI found Sacred Cat and Jungleborn Pioneer. I found some lands – assorted common Deserts, Evolving Wilds and a Cinder Barrens. But, in general, I found very, very, very few commons in serious tournament decks.

I am not at all surprised that players are reporting having too many common wildcards. Unless you plan to build all the decks in the format, a dozen a year is probably enough.

Wizards, here is my recommendation, offered totally for free and without any claim of authorship: don’t have common wildcards. Let players redeem an uncommon wildcard for an uncommon or common, instead. Commons are just too common.

Formats:

Wizards has promised us Standard – with sideboards and three game matches. That’s great. They should also offer some opportunity for newer players or those with smaller collections to play seriously. Matchmaking and ladders are fine, but Wizards should also give players the chance to play Pauper and Peasant (no Rares or Mythics) Magic. Formats like Standard Tribal would also be very welcome. All Standard, all the time, seems boring – even with good matchmaking.

Last minute edit: Wizards has just announced “Brawl,” a Standard / Commander hybrid. This seems like a perfect format for players with limited card pools, and would be great for Arena. I doubt this is a coincidence. Details on Brawl are here

Multiplayer:

Yeah, not happening. I expect screen space is just too limited to display multiplayer games in a comprehensible way. I think multiplayer will remain a paper thing, but I would love to be proved wrong.

Chat, Community, etc.:

I think this is important, but I could be wrong. I don’t know what is available in Hearthstone and the like. I don’t play them, and don’t recall seeing chat in the few videos I have watched. Maybe chat, guilds, etc. are not necessary in online games. I don’t know. So far, Wizards has given us five “emotes” in Arena. You can click to say “Hello!”, “Nice”, “Thinking…”, “Oops” and “Good Game.” Is that enough? Again, I don’t know. I hope there’s more.

Other Stuff:

I could add a number of other things here. Some have been promised, like. cross-platform support. Wizards promised that for MTGO at various times over the years, but it never materialized. We will see what happens with Arena. Other questions – like what happens on rotation, and how do I choose which versions of Colossal Dreadmaw appears in my deck if I have three from Ixalan and four from Rivals, can wait until I am in the beta. Finally, I want to talk about whether Arena and MTGO can coexist, but that will be a whole opinion section in itself.

Cutting Edge Tech

Standard: Standard has a number of viable archetypes. This one has appeared on occasion, and it’s probably what I will play once I get a few more cards. Not sure if this deck can reliably beat Hazoret and Energy, but I intend to find out.

Modern: We had a Modern GP last weekend, and the breakout deck was Ironworks with What does this deck actually do? I’m not sure that anyone on Earth really knows the answer to that question. I suppose it must be a lot like Affinity, as you seem to simply show your opponent cards with pictures of metal things until they concede.” : We had a Modern GP last weekend, and the breakout deck was Ironworks with Scrap Trawler . This is a complex combo deck: as Wizards said in the official coverage , “.”

Pauper: Pauper likes two for ones- even if it is two Hurloon Minotaurs for one card. (The card is : Pauper likes two for ones- even if it is two Hurloon Minotaurs for one card. (The card is Flurry of Horns , if you were wondering.) I played a version of this deck several years ago. Nice to see it back.

Legacy: Wizards actually released the Legacy Challenge decklists last week on the mothership. Usually, you have to dig through reddit or the like to find decklists. I hope this change endures.

Vintage: Montolio won the Vintage Challenge last weekend. If you follow Vintage, or have just read my featured decks over the last couple years, you know what Montolio played.

Card Prices

Note: all my prices come from the fine folks at MTGOTraders.com . These are retail prices, and generally the price of the lowest priced, actively traded version. (Prices for some rare promo versions are not updated when not in stock, so I skip those.) You can get these cards at MTGOTraders.com web store, or from their bots: MTGOTradersBot(#) (they have bots 1-10), CardCaddy and CardWareHouse, or sell cards to MTGOTradersBuyBot(#) (they have buybots 1-4). I have bought cards from MTGOTraders for over a decade now, and have never been overcharged or disappointed.

Standard Staples: Standard prices are mixed again this week, and slightly down overall. I’m not sure if this is disappointment with the format, or a general drop in MTGO as people experiment with MTG Arena. Or if it is just the general malaise we always get before a new set appears.

Modern staples: Modern is down this week, as is most of MTGO.

Legacy and Vintage: Legacy and Vintage are generally pretty quiet this week. A few cards to be reprinted in Masters 25 are dropping, as you would expect, but not by much. Rishadan Port has fallen a ton. A couple years back, Port was over $200.

Standard Legal Sets: This table tracks the cost of a single copy of every card in each Standard legal set, plus Treasure Chests and the current booster pack. I’ll keep tracking these because they are interesting (at least to me).

Complete Set Price Last Week Change % Change Aether Revolt $77.74 $84.02 ($6.28) -7% Amonkhet $69.17 $72.97 ($3.80) -5% Ixalan $75.50 $77.44 ($1.94) -3% Hour of Devastation $62.03 $73.80 ($11.77) -16% Kaladesh $88.43 $95.50 ($7.07) -7% Rivals of Ixalan $74.23 $79.84 ($5.61) -7% Treasure Chest $2.60 $2.47 $0.13 5% Ixalan Booster $3.95 $4.14 ($0.19) -5% Rivals of Ixalan Booster $2.35 $2.63 ($0.28) -11%

The Good Stuff

The following is a list of all the non-promo, non-foil cards on MTGO that retail for more than $25 per card. These are the big ticket items in the world of MTGO. The prices are dropping a bit – nothing even close to over $100.

Name Set Rarity Price True-Name Nemesis PZ1 Mythic Rare $ 90.53 Black Lotus 1E Rare $ 89.37 True-Name Nemesis C13 Rare $ 84.48 Liliana of the Veil MM3 Mythic Rare $ 71.37 Force of Will MED Rare $ 68.14 Liliana of the Veil ISD Mythic Rare $ 62.24 Jace, the Mind Sculptor WWK Mythic Rare $ 54.93 Jace, the Mind Sculptor EMA Mythic Rare $ 53.22 Mox Opal MM2 Mythic Rare $ 52.99 Jace, the Mind Sculptor VMA Mythic Rare $ 52.81 Tarmogoyf MMA Mythic Rare $ 52.30 Mox Sapphire 1E Rare $ 52.05 Jace, the Mind Sculptor A25 Mythic Rare $ 51.74 Mox Opal SOM Mythic Rare $ 51.55 Liliana, the Last Hope EMN Mythic Rare $ 50.91 Tarmogoyf FUT Rare $ 50.86 Tarmogoyf MM3 Mythic Rare $ 49.41 Mox Opal MS2 Bonus $ 46.87 Wasteland TE Uncommon $ 46.72 Mox Emerald 1E Rare $ 46.32 Mox Diamond TPR Mythic Rare $ 46.26 Horizon Canopy IMA Rare $ 45.20 Horizon Canopy FUT Rare $ 44.66 Mox Ruby 1E Rare $ 44.44 Ancestral Recall 1E Rare $ 44.23 Horizon Canopy EXP Mythic Rare $ 43.75 Engineered Explosives MMA Rare $ 43.30 Engineered Explosives MS2 Bonus $ 43.25 Engineered Explosives 5DN Rare $ 43.24 Karn Liberated NPH Mythic Rare $ 43.22 Wasteland TPR Rare $ 42.07 Tarmogoyf MM2 Mythic Rare $ 41.44 Force of Will EMA Mythic Rare $ 40.97 Misdirection MM Rare $ 40.52 Mox Jet 1E Rare $ 40.19 Surgical Extraction NPH Rare $ 37.94 Surgical Extraction MM2 Rare $ 37.79 Force of Will VMA Rare $ 36.42 Dark Depths V16 Mythic Rare $ 36.14 Wasteland EMA Rare $ 35.90 Karn Liberated MM2 Mythic Rare $ 35.88 Unmask V16 Mythic Rare $ 35.88 Force of Will MS3 Special $ 35.07 Mox Pearl 1E Rare $ 33.91 The Scarab God MS3 Special $ 33.42 Exploration UZ Rare $ 33.26 Wasteland EXP Mythic Rare $ 33.20 Underground Sea ME2 Rare $ 32.12 The Scarab God HOU Mythic Rare $ 32.03 Black Lotus VMA Bonus $ 31.24 Containment Priest C14 Rare $ 30.85 Dark Depths CSP Rare $ 29.94 Underground Sea ME4 Rare $ 29.79 Collective Brutality EMN Rare $ 29.50 Cavern of Souls MM3 Mythic Rare $ 29.44 Time Walk 1E Rare $ 29.10 Containment Priest PZ1 Rare $ 28.64 Noble Hierarch MM2 Rare $ 28.43 Fulminator Mage SHM Rare $ 28.13 Gorilla Shaman ALL Common $ 27.19 Scalding Tarn MM3 Rare $ 26.75 Scalding Tarn EXP Mythic Rare $ 26.74 Kolaghan's Command DTK Rare $ 26.68 Noble Hierarch CON Rare $ 26.56 Scalding Tarn ZEN Rare $ 26.56 Show and Tell UZ Rare $ 26.27 Blood Moon 8ED Rare $ 25.98 Chandra, Torch of Defiance KLD Mythic Rare $ 25.87 Ensnaring Bridge ST Rare $ 25.74 Chalice of the Void MRD Rare $ 25.08

The big number is the retail price of a playset (4 copies) of every card available on MTGO. Assuming you bought the least expensive versions available, the cost of owning a playset of every card on MTGO is approximately $ 20,335. That’s down $815 from last week.

Weekly Highlights

I seriously considered bringing my laptop to work and trying to play during certain conference calls. And having MTGO running would be a great way to survive certain meetings, but I can't really do that. Fortunately, courts have upheld a ruling that our notes are work papers, not subject to open records requests, so no one will see that I have decklists scribbled in the margins. At least that's something to do while the lawyers talk for no other real purpose than to accrue billable hours.

(If any lawyers are reading this - I'm joking! Really.)

PRJ

“One Million Words” on MTGO