Around Tampa Bay, households, community centers and businesses are preparing for the start of hurricane season on Wednesday with the annual ritual of cleaning storm drains, making essential building repairs, reviewing insurance policies and assembling emergency kits. This routine is a way of life for anyone who lives on or near the coast. But Tampa Bay hasn't experienced a major landfalling hurricane since 1921, nor a direct hit since 1946.

People can't help but wonder: Will 2016 break our lucky streak? Are we prepared, or have we become too complacent?

NOAA issued our annual hurricane season outlook Friday for the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. We predict 2016 will yield a near-average season with 1 to 4 major hurricanes and a total of 10 to 16 named storms expected to form. For seven decades, Tampa Bay has been lucky, but a long lucky streak does not guarantee continued good fortune. Subtle changes in wind direction ahead of the next tropical storm or hurricane would be all it takes to ruin this streak.

Due to topography and a shallow, sloping seafloor, the Tampa Bay coastline is particularly vulnerable to storm surge flooding, which occurs when water from the ocean is pushed onto the shore by the winds swirling around a hurricane. This vulnerability is compounded by rising sea levels and the exploding population along Florida's west coast, which puts more people in the path of a potential storm. The worst-case scenario for the region would be a hurricane hitting north of Tampa Bay, with the counterclockwise winds forcing water into the bay and farther inland. Thousands of homes and families, particularly in peninsular and riverside areas, could be displaced, and flood waters could overwhelm causeways, bridges, and hospitals.

State, city and county officials take this risk seriously and are working closely with NOAA to apply the latest weather and water science to boost the bay area's resilience to any and all conceivable scenarios. This year we're offering a new flood map to help people better understand the worst-case scenario of regional flooding due to storm surge from a tropical system. The intuitive new product, with vivid visualizations of this specific and dangerous threat, can help people recognize and understand their personal risk so they can make informed decisions.

NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program marks its fifth anniversary this year. We have met our five-year goal to improve both intensity and track forecasts by 20 percent. Powerful new supercomputers have enabled upgrades to our weather and climate prediction models that will bring even more precision to hurricane forecasts this year. Improvements to a number of the storm models that help predict the power and movement of tropical systems will also be completed by the time hurricane season is in full swing.

NOAA's hurricane monitoring work stretches tens of thousands of miles above the Earth. Earlier this year, NOAA launched Jason-3—a new environmental satellite that, along with its older sibling, Jason-2, carries specialized radar which watches for pools of warm water that can fuel the explosive growth of tropical storms. Jason-3 is expected to become fully operational this season, and another powerful hurricane monitoring satellite—GOES-R—is slated to launch later this year. GOES-R will scan the Earth five times faster and, with a resolution four times greater than ever before, will produce much sharper images of severe weather.

It's not a matter of if, but when, Tampa Bay's lucky streak ends. Take time now to update your family's emergency plan and make sure your kit is stocked with essentials. Be prepared with the information and resources you need should a hurricane threaten Tampa Bay this season. Working together, we can build a Weather Ready Nation that ensures everyone is empowered in the face of extreme weather.

Kathryn Sullivan is the NOAA administrator.