Thanks to young voters and the growing Latino electorate, Republicans’ once massive advantage in Orange County’s voter registration has fallen to 2.8 percentage points and is expected to continue to fade.

The GOP long billed Orange as “America’s Most Republican County,” peaking in 1990 when it had a 22-percentage point lead. By time Trump was elected, the edge had shrunken to 3.7 points and the county, overall, favored the Democratic presidential nominee for the first time since 1936.

Democrats have held steady over the past three decades with about a third of the county electorate, but Republicans have steadily lost market share as more voters register with “No Party Preference.” The latest statistics posted by the county Registrar of Voters finds the GOP at 36.9 percent, Democrats at 34.1 percent and No Party Preference at 24.7 percent.

Voters under 35 are a major reason for the shift away from the GOP

In 2002, 42 percent of that age group registered as Republican and 29 percent as Democrats. Today, just 22 percent sign up as Republicans while 38 percent favor the Democratic Party, according to Political Data Inc. That doesn’t bode well for the GOP’s future as voters tend to retain their original party affiliation, according to Political Data Vice President Paul Mitchell.

In fact, county Democrats also now outnumber Republicans among those ages 35-44. Democrats’ advantage among that group is 6 points.

In 2016, when I last analyzed the county’s voter registration demographics, Fullerton College political scientist Jodi Balma told me the change was due to Republican social policies falling out of favor with young people. Compared to their parents, younger voters today are far more likely to have grown up with friends who are openly gay or who are known to be in the country without proper documents — and that portion of the electorate continues to grow.

“Millennials in particular are socially liberal and one-third don’t have a religious affiliation,” Balma said.

Latino, Asian voters

Latinos in Orange County — and the rest of the state — have been overwhelmingly Democratic since the fallout of Proposition 187. The 1994 measure, pushed hard by the GOP and approved by a majority of state voters before it was thrown out by the courts, called for a ban on public services for those in the country illegally, including schooling.

The county breakdown of Latino voters is 53 percent Democrat and 18 percent Republican, according to Political Data Inc.The Democratic share of Latino voters has remained steady since 2002 but the GOP share has slid from 28 percent, with the balance shifting to No Party Preference.

But perhaps the bigger impact of Latinos on election results is their growing overall share of the county electorate. In 2002, they accounted for less than 13 percent of registered voters. They are now 20 percent and growing.

Also growing is the Asian share of voters, now at 15 percent. The Republican advantage in that group is shrinking dramatically and now is at a single percentage point, down from 6 points just two years ago, according to Political Data Inc. As with voters countywide, the shift is generational: Those under 45 favor Democrats while older ages prefer the Republican Party.

GOP advantages

It’s not all roses for Democrats. They’re still outnumbered in the county and the two groups they’re strongest with — young voters and Latinos — are also those least likely to vote.

Additionally, Republicans continue to dominate county and city offices as well as school and water district boards. That gives the GOP a disproportionate influence over local politics and provides the party with a farm team of seasoned candidates for higher office.

Democrats see opportunity in the county’s four Republican congressional offices. In 2016, a Democrat nearly upset Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, whose district includes part of south Orange County. And Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in all four districts.

But that GOP farm team could prove its worth. In the races for the seats of outgoing Reps. Issa and Ed Royce, R-Fullerton, just one of the 14 Democrats to take out candidacy papers has held elected office — a community college board member. Of the 13 Republican hopefuls, nine have held elected office — four state legislators, two county supervisors and three city council members.