Guest commentary



Visualization of “Superstorm” Sandy’s winds (NASA)

The two writers of this piece don’t always agree with each other, but on this topic we do: the term “Superstorm” is overused. While this may seem like a trivial little complaint, it has significant implications for weather warnings, public response, and trust.

In an era of 24-7 weather information, social media hypecasts, and “click bait”, “Superstorm” is increasingly ubiquitous. Yet, we find no formal definition for the term in any of the standard resources like the American Meteorological Society’s Glossary of Meteorology. It is fair to ask: “Do we need Kryptonite for the use of the term “Superstorm?”.

California recently experienced much needed rainfall as ample moisture rode the “Pineapple Express” into the West Coast. While not sufficient to end their drought, it was a welcome relief. Meteorologically speaking, the storm was associated with a relatively new but understood process called an “atmospheric river”.

NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory describes an atmospheric river as “relatively narrow regions in the atmosphere that are responsible for most of the horizontal transport of water vapor outside of the tropics. While [atmospheric rivers] come in many shapes and sizes, those that contain the largest amounts of water vapor, the strongest winds, and stall over watersheds vulnerable to flooding, can create extreme rainfall and floods.”

Yet, many in the media described the storm as a “Superstorm”.

In a provocative blog post entitled “Weathering Superstorm Whogivesa$h*t”, Sarah Miller challenges the notion. She raises some very fair points about the use of the term and illustrates particular challenges the weather industry faces with a public and its insatiable appetite for weather and climate news.

Social science is increasingly grappling with the juxtaposition of good meteorological information and public perception. Social scientist Kim Klockow – a postdoctoral researcher at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research – responded to Miller’s blog post by suggesting research is need to understand the effects of such terminology:

In the case of this author, there were strong impacts near her, as she notes. But if she wasn’t tied to them, she’s much less likely to internalize this alarm as being justified. What this experience may imply for future behavioral intentions is an open question. It’s unlikely that forecasters can do anything to address this from a physical science perspective — this is a perceptual issue that is ripe for study in the social and behavioral sciences.”

Klockow’s comments suggest that, until we better understand what terms like “Superstorm” really mean to people and how they will respond – caution must be taken with the use of terminology.

Ironically, a storm has brewed recently over the naming of winter storms, and the show Weather Geeks recently considered the “pros” and “cons.” Irrespective of that practice, various outlets and people do name storms (e.g. Frankenstorm, Storm of the Century, and so on). The most famous Superstorm may be Sandy. But even with Sandy, did we overstep or was the use of “Superstorm” justified?

Weather stories continue to headline the news because they are relevant and affect millions of people. Extreme weather events are also exciting, awe-inspiring demonstrations of nature’s power. But maybe our current storm vocabulary is not “extreme” enough to satisfy today’s social media or attract enough eyeballs to nightly network news broadcasts.

On Twitter, it is not apparent sometimes what will become a trending hashtag to describe upcoming or ongoing extreme weather possibly leading to confusion about what is forecast. Since disaster preparation is critically important in the days and hours prior to a landfalling hurricane or tornado outbreak, accurate and useful information must flow unimpeded from meteorologists to the public including emergency planners at the state and local level.

Cities and states have specific plans set in place to deal with a hurricanes of different categories. Storm surge maps provide a first look at likely evacuation zones due to rising seas. Emergency managements train to respond to severe weather and requires accurate weather information to assess their given responses. To meteorologists and the National Hurricane Center, the term hurricane has a specific definition. Categories 1 through 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale have been used in practice since the early 1970s.

But now the public is being introduced to new terms like Superstorm. Is this worse than Category 5 hurricane? What actions should a coastal city homeowner take to protect their family and property?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) explains that hurricanes historically were named to provide ease in communication of warnings and advisories so agencies around the world were all on the same page.

Communication of warnings matter critically to the public as impacts to life and property are dependent upon understanding the nature and severity of the extreme weather phenomena. We are concerned that the proliferation of non-technical terms might indeed spawn a “perfect storm” of confusion.

Indeed, the Weather Channel stated the recent California “Pineapple Express” deluge failed to meet its objective criteria for “naming” from its winter storms list. Ironically, as many have criticized a private company’s foray into branding weather events, an alphabetized list of “winter storms” may actually serve an important purpose: to coalesce social media, emergency planners, and the public on one descriptive name, term or hashtag. Ultimately, we believe the weather enterprise will find its way on the naming issue, but it needs to do so as a community.

Thus, we urge journalists and social media content generators to embrace accuracy in describing weather events with terms that already have meaning. A hurricane is scary enough without being “supersized” or turned into a zombie.

Marshall Shepherd is the Georgia Athletic Association professor of atmospheric sciences and geography, and director of the University of Georgia’s atmospheric sciences program. He is the host of The Weather Channel’s WxGeeks program and was the 2013 president of the American Meteorological Society.

Ryan Maue is global weather news editor and meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics LLC where he leads meteorological research applications activities.