The many ways of Essex

It’s simplistic to say the Tories scored a victory by winning back some of the UKIP vote this year. Not in Essex where the disenchantment with Labour among its traditional supporters began between 2001 and 2005 in Blair’s second term. It’s really a story of Labour’s gradual failure over 15 years. On the upside, it seems to have passed the worst point seen in 2009. However, there is no sign of an imminent return to a 1990s levels of support.

The Conservatives have been consolidating their position in Essex for over 20 years, partly due to gentrification and an ageing population. The Liberal Democrat vote started falling in the mid-1990s, largely to the benefit of the Tories.

The Labour vote started falling after 2001, particularly after the Iraq War which completely gutted some CLPs of membership as activists quit in anger.

In 2009, a tiny proportion of Labour’s traditional voters issued a cry for help by making protest votes for the neo-Nazi BNP – not due to racism, but a deep sense of despair. In 2013, some of those votes went to UKIP, which also ate significantly into the Tory vote. But, with the Tories faring worse from the UKIP challenge, by 2013 Labour was able to regain most of its 2009 losses. The Tories only turned the tide this year due to Brexit, which was supported by around 60 per cent of Essex voters.

The case of Harlow