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NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for Tuesday – November 8th, 2016

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-8.5) – O/U: 206.5

Line Analysis :

The Cavs are sizeable favorites and I expect them to win this game somewhat comfortably. However, it is possible for the Hawks to keep it close enough so that the Cavs stars pay off on their price tags.

ATL :

I typically don’t like to pit too many players against the Cavs, and tonight is no different. I may have some level of interest in Paul Millsap or Dwight Howard, but I don’t see them paying off in value .

Thabo Sefolosha will get the start tonight since Kyle Korver is on maternity leave. Just in case you were wondering if new medical advances happened without your knowledge, it’s Korver’s wife that had a baby…not him. That would be weird.

ELITE PLAYS: none

SECONDARY: Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, Thabo Sefolosha

CLE :

If this game does stay close, it’s going to be a solid night for the Big Three- LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.

—-The Hawks have given up the most FDP on average (51.5) to point guards…Hello, Kyrie.

—-K-Love profiles well against Atlanta. As we have seen twice this season, a similar power forward in Markieff Morris had games of 35.8 and 36.3 FDP against the Hawks.

—-Last, but not least, we all know LBJ is matchup-proof and if the game stays close he’ll have a solid stat line. Check out what he did against the Hawks last regular season/playoffs.

I don’t mind JR Smith as a deep flyer for GPPs, but I’m mainly sticking to my guns with America’s favorite trio since Neapolitan ice cream.

ELITE PLAYS: LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love

SECONDARY: JR Smith

COST-FITTING: Channing Frye

Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) @ Brooklyn Nets – O/U: 205

Line Analysis :

I truly hate to do this time and time again for the fear of being a homer, but when the Nets are slight underdogs it always raises some flags. The T-Wolves (-175 money line favorites) have a much better roster, so a 3.5-point spread just seems way too easy to cover. I’m not saying my beloved Nets will win this game, but I am 100% certain that we won’t see a blowout- fantasy goodness!

MIN :

A lot of these T-Wolves have solid matchups tonight, so this is a great spot to build your lineup around. The Nets have been playing at a tremendous pace and this will do nothing but help the T-Wolves in this instance.

The twin towers, Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng both have a solid outlook. The Nets have struggled mightily against opposing frontcourts, and these two are as good of a tandem as it gets. If we’re looking at a close game, it makes sense for the T-Wolves to pound it down low instead of raining three-balls. One thing to note is that Nets center Brook Lopez loves to play out on the perimeter; this could draw KAT out there more often and leave The Gorgeous Dong to claim all of those rebounds.

Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins and Kris Dunn all have different skill sets that profile well against the Nets and their up-tempo style. I do want exposure to whichever guy will be defended by Bojan Bogdanovic, because he sucks on defense. I assume that’s going to be LaVine that draws him but we shall see.

ELITE PLAYS: Karl-Anthony Towns, Gorgui Dieng

SECONDARY: Andrew Wiggins Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn

BKN :

Sean Kilpatrick isn’t much of a surprise to me since I’m a Nets fan, but it’s good to see him finally getting the league-wide recognition. It’s tough to say what kind of ownership he’ll have tonight since he got to a rough start on Friday (but finished with 31.8 FDP), the team’s last game. It’s been a while since the Nets played and hopefully everyone forgot about him because he’ll certainly be in all my lineups. Ever since Jeremy Lin and Greivis Vasquez have been out of the lineup, Kilpatrick has become the focal point of this offense.

I have no idea what to do with Brook Lopez. Coming out of the preseason, it was clear that he didn’t fit into the Nets offensive scheme…and then he had a decent game against the Pacers…and then he stunk it up against the Bulls (it was a blowout)…and then he dropped a 50 burger on the Pistons…and then he absolutely sucked against the Hornets. You see where I’m at on all this- proceed with caution.

Bojan Bogdanovic could be a very sneaky play tonight. The T-Wolves have given up some decent totals to small forwards this season- Rudy Gay (41 FDP) and Matt Barnes (33 FDP), Danilo Gallinari (27 FDP) and James Ennis (24 FD), all of which would exceed 5x value for Bogey’s price tonight. If he gets hot, he can score with the best of them.

I don’t mind Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in this instance either. He had an excellent game across the board (11 points, eight rebounds, six assists and four steals) last time out against Charlotte, and didn’t have easy matchups either. RHJ will be busy guarding either LaVine or Wiggins tonight so he should see plenty of time on the court. Be cautious and just know that he can go off like that, but could also completely dud out.

ELITE PLAYS: Sean Kilpatrick

SECONDARY: Bojan Bogdanovic

Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies (-2) – O/U: 201

Line Analysis :

Ugh…

DEN:

There are a lot of uncertainties with this Nuggets team, and unfortunately, the most confusion lies with their two best players- Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. The minutes aren’t consistent and the matchup isn’t the greatest, but I don’t mind either guy in a GPP.

I guess you could take a chance on Emmanuel Mudiay, but there are better options on the board and it’s probably not needed. If Conley is out, it could turn into a better matchup.

ELITE OPTIONS: none

SECONDARY: Danilo Gallinari, Emmanuel Mudiay (if Conley is out), Jusuf Nurkic, Nikola Jokic

MEM :

Mike Conley is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, so if he is out Wade Baldwin could actually become an option on DraftKings only at minimum price. The Nuggets have given up massive games to point guards this season so this is a spot I may look at. Conley is pretty banged up with an Achilles and hamstring injury, and you can see that in his play of late. Wait for word on that situation.

If Conley is out, then guys down low like Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph would have to shoulder more of the load, but Denver has a weird reputation down there. Yes, they do give up big games, but they have also shut plenty of guys down as well. I don’t think it’s absolutely necessary to attack them tonight with so many other great options out there. If you want to take a chance in GPPs, be my guest.

We should also look at James Ennis, who has been very good at times this season. However, he’s coming off his worst output of the season. The one thing that remains in constant is the minutes; Ennis has played at least 34 minutes in four of the team’s last five games.

ELITE PLAYS: none

SECONDARY: James Ennis, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol

Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers (-8.5) – O/U: 215.5

Line Analysis :

Everything sets up well for the Blazers tonight- a revenge narrative, high spread, massive total and mismatches in the backcourt. The Suns won the first meeting between these two teams just six days ago on a buzzer-beater in overtime.

PHX :

One guy that could produce massive results at a low price tonight is Alex Len. Starting center Tyson Chandler was not at shootaround (personal reasons) this morning and, as of now, his status is unknown. In the previous meeting between the teams, Len had his best game of the season with 18 points, six rebounds and three blocks (32.7 FDP) in just 21 minutes; Chandler had six points and 18 rebounds that game. This could be…wait for it…wait for it…legendary!

The price on TJ Warren finally came up, but he’s still fully capable of hitting value. Last time out against the Blazers, Warren put up 41.4 FDP, his second-highest total of the season. Even if Warren was at his current price of $6400 FD/$6900 DK, he would have exceeded or been close to 5x value in five of his seven games.

Devin Booker finally got back to his old self, but he does draw an unfavorable matchup in this game. He did drop a dud last time out against the Blazers so you should exert some caution for that and another reason. Much like work-horse running backs in the NFL, Booker has logged an incredible amount of run these last two games, playing a combined 86 minutes; fatigue could be a serious issue tonight.

Eric Bledsoe has a great matchup, but he hasn’t gone into the 40+ range yet and that makes me a bit hesitant to use him.

ELITE PLAYS: TJ Warren, Alex Len (if Tyson Chandler is out)

SECONDARY: Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe

POR :

Damian Lillard– take it to the bank and make it rain on these fools. As I mentioned in the line analysis, everything sets up well for the Blazers backcourt according to Vegas. What I didn’t mention was that Phoenix was ranked dead-last in the NBA against point guards last season and they’re currently second-worst in that regard this season. Don’t think twice, Damian is nice!

In the Blazers last game, it was CJ McCollum who led them over the Grizzlies. He too has a great matchup, but if you don’t paying up for the most expensive shooting guard to play a really good second fiddle…be my guest.

The Blazers complementary pieces could be in play here- Mason Plumlee and Al-Farouq Aminu can both do well.

I don’t mind Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe or Maurice Harkless as usual for GPP darts. They are heavy favorites and, if the blowout train comes to town, they could be beneficial cost fits. The only problem is that they are all so inconsistent, but when they’re on…they’re on.

ELITE PLAYS: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum

SECONDARY: Mason Plumlee, Al-Farouq Aminu

COST-FITTING: Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless

New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings (-5.5) – O/U: 203

Line Analysis :

The Pelicans played a tough game last night in Oakland and almost came out with the victory, had it not been for Steph Curry’s record-setting night. Vegas is trying to lure the people in, but I see right through their valiant efforts. Playing the Warriors takes a lot out of teams, but will be the Pelicans third back-to-back set so far in eight games. I guess it makes sense why they are 0-7…the NBA hates the Pelicans.

NO :

We have seen Anthony Davis look absolutely terrible on the back-end of back-to-back games this season: 29 FDP @ SA, 24.9 @ MEM. Last season against the Kings, AD averaged about 48 FDP per game with a 51.8 ceiling and 44.5 floor.

Even though Tim Frazier posted 32.8 FDP last night against the Warriors, it’s impossible to overlook the 18.3 and 7.8 FDP totals he’s put up on back-end of back-to-backs early on this season. Part of the problem is that Frazier has only played a total of 40 minutes in those two games, while averaging 32+ minutes in four of the other five games. If this trend continues, we may see the Pelicans debut of Archie Bradley…but that’s not a solid DFS play, just another hindrance to Frazier.

Buddy Hield didn’t exactly pop off last night like we hoped, but there is (hope) just that tonight. Hield’s best performances so far have come on the back-end of back-to-backs. How hilarious would that be if the blowout we all predicted last night actually happened tonight against the Kings? Well, not that funny…I rostered Hield last night, but I could give him another chance in this circumstance.

ELITE PLAYS: none

SECONDARY: Anthony Davis, Buddy Hield

SAC :

Tonight we’ll see the return of Darren Collison, sparing Ty Lawson any further threat to his lungs. Collison should play a ton of minutes tonight, and this could put the production of Rudy Gay into a free fall. With Collison back in the lineup, Rudy won’t be handling the ball as much. All of this could blow back in my face since they’re facing a practice squad-like defense, but I’m just giving you as many angles as I possibly can.

One guy that won’t suffer a decrease in production is DeMarcus Cousins. Tonight he gets to go up against a tired and weary frontcourt of the Pelicans and that is just flat out good news. I do think KAT is a better $/pt play, but Boogie wouldn’t be a bad differentiator in GPPs.

ELITE PLAYS: DeMarcus Cousins

SECONDARY: Darren Collison, Rudy Gay

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5) – O/U: 205.5

Line Analysis :

The Lakers may actually be a real thing now, winning three straight games. I’m not overly surprised that they’re favored in this game because the Mavs will be without their top two players.

DAL :

Dirk Nowitzki has been ruled out for this game and Deron Williams is doubtful, so two guys are going to have a monstrous boost in this game- Harrison Barnes and JJ Barea. For starters, Barnes’s usage rate is at whopping 31% without Dirk in the lineup; this has led Barnes to at least 39.5 FDP in two of the three games Dirk has been absent. There has only been one game in which D-Will was out this season, and that resulted in 33.7 FDP for Barea. Last season gave us a similar barometer of what life was like for Barea without D-Will.

Wesley Matthews is averaging just under 38 minutes per game and should get some consideration. His last three games have been anything but impressive, so you’ll be carrying a ton of risk if you go this route. However, this is the Lakers they’re facing and anything is possible.

ELITE PLAYS: Harrison Barnes, JJ Barea

SECONDARY: Wesley Matthews

LAL :

Larry Nance Jr. is out for this game so Julius Randle should be in line for a massive workload. He’s only been able to notch one double-double in seven games so far this season, but this should be the perfected opportunity to make it two in eight.

D’Angelo Russell is a guy whose price continues to remain at $6000 on FanDuel so this is an interesting scenario. Surprisingly, he’s only exceeded 5x value twice in seven games but I like this spot for him since the Lakers are favored in this game.

It’s still kind of crazy, but Nick Young is actually an option! He’s exceeded 5x value in four games this season, including three straight. You may feel a bit more comfortable rolling with Lou Williams or Jordan Clarkson, and I surely cannot blame you there. Williams has also exceeded 5x value in three straight, while Clarkson has been buzzing around that same territory but not quite getting there.

ELITE PLAYS: Julius Randle

SECONDARY: D’Angelo Russell, Nick Young, Lou Williams, Jordan Clarkson