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“It would be a joke of history,” said Angela Merkel in Monday afternoon’s press conference, “to break up the coalition after a little over six months, just because the current government has not managed to work in a way that does not repel the people.” And people do feel repelled. In an election held in the state of Hesse last Sunday, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its federal coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), together lost around 20 percent of their support. If fresh national elections were held tomorrow, the CDU and SPD would not even reach 50 percent of the vote combined. Germany’s traditional mass parties are eroding, as voters defect in droves to the right-populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the Greens. In response to the Hesse vote, Merkel has decided to give up the office of party chairwoman, moreover announcing that this will be her last term as chancellor. She has now officially begun a departure process that many had long been waiting for. Indeed, one can feel a sense of history being made, not least given that Merkel is Europe’s de facto leader. Seeking to quash rumors that she may now indeed take up a position in the European Union itself, the Chancellor clarified that she will make no such move. She will leave a void not only in her own CDU party, but — within two years at the latest — a highly polarized, post-Brexit EU. Merkel tried to make the announcement quietly, saying that it was about clearing a path for the party’s transition. But the amount of division and uncertainty in the country’s party system means that her move may end up being more abrupt, and make a bigger splash, than she wanted. For the people of Germany, what matters is who will follow in her place. A few front-runners have already emerged, all of whom are well-known figures from the CDU establishment. Yet each of them represents a shift to the right to one degree or another, suggesting that Merkel’s centrist rule will soon be a thing of the past.

The Woman With the Initials To most observers, the most promising candidacy appears to be that of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. The CDU secretary general is widely regarded as the secret “crown princess,” even if Merkel avoided naming a favorite during her announcement. Kramp-Karrenbauer was only recently brought in from the state to the federal level and was immediately regarded by many as Merkel’s heir. Anyone who imagines her a moderate Christian Democrat will soon discover otherwise: “AKK”, as she is called by her parliamentary colleagues, attracted attention this August by calling for the reestablishment of mandatory military conscription after its suspension in 2011. In a discussion with the German journalist Anne Will a day before Merkel’s announcement, AKK spoke about the need to “protect creation,” i.e., prevent abortions, and years before made stirred controversy by suggesting that legalizing gay marriage could open the door to group marriages or even marriages between relatives. Most recently she spoke in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, lumping together the “social populism” of the AfD, Die Linke, and even the Social Democrats, and is in favor of reforming the market economy by bolstering the role of individual responsibility. This includes, for example, regulating the housing crisis not through state intervention but even more private competition.

Spahn: The Right Wing’s Ambitious Face Health Minister Jens Spahn was personally in attendance when Merkel submitted her resignation plan in a party meeting. The party right’s attack dog was appointed to the cabinet to bring him into line. Yet this did not stop him from commenting on sociopolitical issues outside his own brief, stating publicly that recipients of the reduced public assistance known as “Hartz IV” were not condemned to poverty. He claims that the defenders of abortion rights care more about the welfare of animals than about unborn human life and called the demonstrators at the anti-G20 protests “left-wing fascists.” He is expected to receive support from the CDU youth, parts of the Seniors’ Union, and also from decidedly conservative circles such as the signatories to the “Conservative Manifesto,” which he also signed.

Merz: He’s Back The political return of Friedrich Merz, chairman of the CDU parliamentary group in the early 2000s, came as a surprise. Once Merkel’s fierce opponent, after she ousted him he went into retirement and then apparently waited fourteen years for her resignation. Merz is known for his economically liberal, anti-worker, socially conservative politics. He was the one who introduced the assimilationist concept of German Leitkultur (a “guiding culture” based on a set of values and traditions that immigrants should adopt) into the discourse back in 2000. As a dashing entrepreneur who wants to cut taxes for “high performers,” Merz is an almost cartoonish embodiment of financial capitalism’s neoliberal style. He is currently CEO of the investment-management company BlackRock, which participated as a shadow bank in the so-called “Cum-Ex” dividends stripping affair. This scandal, which involved defrauding national governments for multiple tax reimbursements, was a case of organized tax fraud on a massive scale. Merz has also chaired the powerful Atlantik-Brücke group since 2009, a networking association of German and American business and political elites. In ruling-class conflicts over a possible shift towards protectionist and nationalist rhetoric, Merz is clearly positioned in the opposing neoliberal “internationalist” camp. He recently wrote a call for European solidarity with Jürgen Habermas and others, arguing not only for a European army but also for German financial contributions to balance out disparities between regions. Parts of the CSU and the Seniors’ Union have already expressed support for his candidacy.