The problem with "earning and learning" and working for the dole is that overwhelmingly most youths already work or learn. But hey, the Government won't let the facts get in the way of the spin, writes Greg Jericho.

The mantra of this Government appears to be to solve problems that don't exist, but for which there is a perception that such a problem exists.

Call it the Dennis Denuto guide to government policy: just assert there is an age of entitlement or the welfare systems is being rorted. Don't worry too much about there being a paucity of evidence regarding the age of entitlement or that the welfare system is being rorted - the vibe will do.

Then suggest something needs to be done - if not to solve any actual problem then to solve the problem of voters thinking there is a problem.

The great thing about such a strategy is anecdotes are all that is needed - especially when you have the front page of the Sunday tabloid papers only too happy to run with perception rather than reality.

One of the "more vibe than reality" policies has been that the youth need to be earning or learning. It's one of the policies that sounds great - surely the opposite of earning or learning is nothing, and something is always better than nothing.

Tony Abbott summed up this view in Parliament in May, when he said that "those who are capable of working will be expected to have a go. They will be expected to be either earning or learning - and that is the way it ought to be".

And he will be thus happy to know that that is exactly what the youth of Australia have been doing - and indeed are now doing in record numbers.

More Australian youth are now in full-time education than ever before (this includes those who are working while also attending full-time education). The trend has been long and steady for nearly 25 years.

When it comes to either earning or learning the 15-19-year-olds are doing that in record numbers. In May about 92 per cent of youth aged 15 to 19 years of age were either working or learning. This includes about 44 per cent who were employed, 5.7 per cent who were unemployed but doing full-time education and 42 per cent who were not in the labour force but were attending full-time education.

It's worth noting the ABS records full-time and part-time employment, but only full-time education.

While the 15-19-year-olds are earning or learning in record numbers, there has been a drop off in the 20-24-year-olds since the GFC. This however is not because of a drop in education, but because much more so than 15-19-year-olds, the 20 to 24 age bracket is affected by declines in employment.

In September 2008, 77.2 per cent of 20-24-year-olds were in employment, 1.3 per cent were unemployed but attending education and 9.6 per cent were out of the labour force and in education. In May this year, while the proportion of those in education - whether unemployed or out of the labour force - has increased, the level of those in employment has fallen to 70.7 per cent:

And this is not surprising. There has always been a strong link between the percentage of 20-24-year-olds out of work and not attending education and the total unemployment rate:

Earning or learning sounds great, but not when the number of jobs is declining, and you have reached a point where you have already done a fair amount of learning. Do you do another TAFE course? Another degree?

And the problem is it's not like you can just pick your job. The jobs market is tough - and has become tougher in the past two years.

The latest job vacancy data out last week showed that while the number of job vacancies has slightly improved in the past 12 months, they remain 18 per cent down on where they were in May 2012.

And given the increase in population during that time, this means that the numbers of unemployed fighting for each job has risen.

In May there was about 4.9 unemployed chasing each vacancy in Australia - roughly level with the situation 12 months ago, but well up on the 3.5 unemployed per vacancy in May 2012:

In Western Australia the situation has become much more fierce. In August 2012 a mere 1.4 unemployed were chasing each vacancy in WA; now it is 3.7 - although that remains much better than Victoria where 6.3 unemployed are after each job.

One problem with this data is the averages suggest everyone is equally qualified for each job. In reality some jobs are pretty much out of reach of most - especially inexperienced youth.

The Department of Employment estimates that 27.1 per cent of all job vacancies in May were for professionals, and 12.6 per cent were for managers.

So that's nearly a third of jobs unlikely to go to youth. The labour market is actually quite narrow - 13 specific occupations account for a third of all vacancies:

Throw in factors like being disabled and phrases like "welfare to work" seem great on paper but rather condescending in reality.

And of course not all occupations or industries are always growing.

One of the reasons the fight for jobs in WA has become so much tougher is because the number of vacancies in the mining sector has dropped considerably:

But across all industries, vacancies have declined.

And this brings us to the problem of earning and learning and working for the dole. It sounds great on talkback radio, but overwhelmingly most youth (and adults) already work or learn.

You can find the anecdote of some kid who is surfing on Byron Bay while on the dole, but unless you have some parents secretly supporting you, living on Newstart is pretty much hell. You have to suspend disbelief to suggest people want to stay on it.

There is little to no evidence to work for the dole schemes have worked. The UK's Mandatory Work for the Dole scheme has been a complete disaster. A study by the UK Department of Work and Pensions found being in the scheme had "no impact on the likelihood of being employed".

And as for the proposal to cut people off the dole for six months, in the USA it was found that keeping people on unemployment benefits longer did not prevent people from getting a job, but it did keep people in the labour force longer than they would have if the benefits were cut.

Conservative politicians and media love getting tough on the unemployed, and even better if it is youth unemployed. But the reality is youth unemployment is driven by total unemployment. And far from needing to be encouraged to earn or learn, the youth of Australia have been doing both in greater numbers for the past 25 years.

Youth unemployment will decline when total unemployment declines. All the work for the dole scheme will do will force unemployed to do community gardening projects and other activities that will provide them no help in getting work. And all cutting people off unemployment benefits will do is encourage people to leave the labour force entirely - especially women.

But hey, the vibe will be all good, and I'm sure they'll be able to find a couple anecdotes that will help obscure the reality.

Greg Jericho writes weekly for The Drum. His blog can be found here and he tweets at @grogsgamut. View his full profile here.