The big news in The Other Big Story is this New York Times Upshot poll that has everybody from Joe and Mika to the Democratic National Committee runnin' a'skeered. The top-line, barely-out-of-bed result seems to be that unless the Democrats nominate Joe Biden—or Pete Buttigieg, about whom we will speak in a moment—El Caudillo del Mar-a-Lago will run the table in the Electoral College again, so let's just have the convention next week and get it over with.

Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, he trails Joe Biden by an average of two points among registered voters but stays within the margin of error. Mr. Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same margin as his win over Hillary Clinton in these states three years ago...

The results suggest that Ms. Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender — including the fraught question of “likability” — could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate. And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.

There are a number of reasons to reach for the salt shaker besides the fact that it's still a year away from an election that's going to be conducted during an impeachment inquiry of the incumbent president*. For example, the Warren-Trump numbers in this poll are outliers in comparison to the most recent statewide battleground polls, particularly in Pennsylvania and Michigan. (In Michigan, the NYT poll has a margin-of-error of over five percent, which is a whopper.) The "likability" question is pure misogyny.

Elizabeth Warren is beginning to encounter some predictable resistance. Scott Olson Getty Images

And, of course, there's this number, which is deadly to any Democratic candidate, including Biden.

The major demographic cleavages of the 2016 election also remain intact. Mr. Trump struggles badly among college-educated white voters and nonwhite voters, though there are signs his standing among the latter group has improved modestly since the last presidential election. He counters with a wide lead among white voters who did not graduate from a four-year college. In contrast to recent national surveys, the Times/Siena polls find that the president’s lead among white, working-class voters nearly matches his decisive advantage from 2016. This group represents nearly half of registered voters in these states, and a majority in the Northern battlegrounds that decided the last election.

There's a bit of a switchback in there that's interesting. We go from white voters without a college degree to white, working class voters, and I would posit that the two groups are no longer interchangeable, even within the very flexible definition of "working class." People without college degrees, black or white, are less likely to be "working class" these days than they are simply to be poor.

It's become clear over the past few days that the big guns of privilege have begun to open up on the Warren campaign. It began with a series of stories quoting anonymous Wall Street types threatening to jump to the president* or sit out the election entirely if SPW is the nominee. (This should have surprised precisely nobody.) The next step was another series of stories in which anonymous Wall Street types began to threaten financial calamity if she were to get elected and reinstate the kind of financial regulatory regime that worked so well for, you know, 70 years.

Joe Biden was the undisputed Back-to-Normal candidate, but he faces new competition from Mayor Pete. The Washington Post Getty Images

Then she rolled out the mechanics of her Medicare For All plan, which were initially applauded, but that applause was quickly drowned out by the HowYaGonnaPayForIt? Hallelujah Chorus. (Democratic leaders are starting to talk about The Deficit again, never a good sign.) Her snipe about Biden's possibly running in "the wrong primary" probably wasn't a good move but, what the hell, if you're the Democratic frontrunner and using conservative talking points against your primary rival, then what SPW said was only what a lot of Democratic voters were thinking anyway.

The general state of the race over the past couple of weeks has evinced the inevitable power of the back-to-normal narrative. There is a substantial portion of the electorate that just wants a break. Biden is that candidate, although Buttigieg is making a strong pitch for being the voice of that desire as well. It's not showing up in any polls yet, but he's clearly becoming the darling of the Morning Joe don't-run-with-scissors crowd. Over the weekend in Iowa, he received considerable praise for comments that, on their own, are almost overpowering in their stunning banality.

The purpose of the presidency is not the glorification of the president, but the unification of the American people.

The purpose of the presidency is to see that the laws are faithfully executed, which includes obeying them yourself. Period. This is consultant-speak, West Wing pablum. And then there was this, on ABC on Sunday.

I think it [Medicare for All] could very well be the long-run destination, but I think there's got to be some humility in our policy here.

No, I don't know what "humility" has to do with anything, either. And, finally, there was this beauty, from a town hall in New Hampshire.

A new culture of belonging is the sort of thing that only the powers of the presidency can deliver. Not the legal powers; the symbolic, the cultural, the moral power of the office. Because the purpose of the presidency is not the glorification of the President, it is the unification and empowerment to the American people.

The presidency is meant to foster "a new culture of belonging"? And people say Marianne Williamson is the cosmic muffin of this campaign. But the people who follow such things, and who yearn for a return to the status quo of the days before Camp Runamuck, love this kind of thing, especially when dished out by a handsome young white man. If those NYT numbers get enough people a'skeered, then, Mayor Pete's "moment" may well be upon us. Double digits, here he comes!

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Charles P. Pierce Charles P Pierce is the author of four books, most recently Idiot America, and has been a working journalist since 1976.

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