Insider: What I learned about who the Colts will select in the NFL draft

ORLANDO – Predicting how the NFL draft will play out is akin to assembling a jigsaw puzzle that is missing half its pieces.

Yes, information can be hard to come by. And even when you do acquire some details, media must determine whether it’s legitimate or merely a smokescreen.

Which brings us to the Indianapolis Colts, owners of the sixth pick in next month’s draft. Here at the annual meeting, where the draft is among the foremost topics of conversation, a picture is beginning to emerge of where things stand with the Colts:

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>> Internally, the Colts are banking on at least two quarterbacks coming off the board before they pick at No. 6. The more quarterbacks chosen in the top five of this quarterback-rich draft, the better off the Colts will be.

The Colts’ brass has been surprisingly open about this subject. Granted, it’s not a shocking revelation, but it isn’t every day teams are this open about their hopes and intentions in the draft, however obvious they might be.

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“These four quarterbacks are probably the best four quarterbacks to ever come out,” coach Frank Reich joked Tuesday. “If they go 1, 2, 3 and 4, that would be just fine with us. There will be an impact player there at (No.) 6 for sure.”

The four quarterbacks Reich was referring to are, presumably, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen.

“We’ll always take the worst-case first,” General Manager Chris Ballard said. “So, we’ll start under the premise that two quarterbacks come off the board and then we’ll work from there. If three come off the board, then good.”

Ballard didn’t speculate where the quarterbacks might go, but the Colts clearly have some sense of what will happen. Either way, they’ll be prepared for every situation. If the worst-case happens, as Ballard outlined -- which likely means Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb and Quenton Nelson are selected in the top 5 picks -- they have a plan for that. And they’re developing plans for the other scenarios as well – three quarterbacks, four quarterbacks, whatever.

“You work on the premise of two (being picked) and then decide, 'What would you do at 6?'" Ballard said. "Even before we made the trade (from No. 3 to 6), we thought that through. 'Who would we take if there are only two quarterbacks off the board?' You have to go through that in your mind. If there’s three, we’ll work through that scenario. If there’s four, then we’ll work that scenario, too.”

>> Now that we’ve established that the Colts are not choosing a quarterback, it seems pretty clear which players they are focusing on.

Here’s another instance where the Colts have been relatively open about the fact that they are focused squarely on Barkley, the running back from Penn State; Chubb, North Carolina State's pass rusher; and Nelson, a guard from Notre Dame (though we don’t know how the Colts have the trio ranked on their draft board).

This is what most smart Colts fans have been assuming for quite some time, but this week, we essentially got confirmation from the top.

“We can go a lot of different directions,” owner Jim Irsay said. “We have a lot of needs. We could go pass rusher, we could go franchise running back, we could go offensive lineman. We don’t really feel the pressure to go any direction except the one that helps us have the longest sustained success going forward for greatness.”

Who will that be? We shall see.

As for what the Colts think of the individual prospects, we know they see Barkley as nearly flawless. That’s in line with pretty much the rest of the NFL. Chubb is an interesting evaluation. He’s not a freakish player in the mold of Von Miller but, internally, the Colts have used Terrell Suggs as a comparison due to their similar physicality and power. And at Notre Dame’s pro day last week, Ballard said of Nelson, “You can see his natural power. He’s a big, strong man. He’s got quick feet, good agility and balance, so you saw about everything you wanted to see. You saw it on tape, too.”

>> Here’s something we don’t know: Who would the Colts be inclined to pick if Barkley, Chubb and Nelson are all gone at pick No. 6?

What we learned in Orlando: The Colts have identified which prospect outside that group they most like, and they are ready and willing to pick him if this scenario plays out. We won’t speculate, but don’t rule out any position (except quarterback).

>> The Colts don’t seem inclined to trade down any further unless the run on quarterbacks fails to materialize.

If two of that top-four group of quarterbacks remain on the board at No. 6, the Colts do think they might garner some attractive trade offers for their pick. But they are not actively seeking to trade the pick as of right now.

“If it’s beneficial for us, and we think we have a deal that works long term, we’ll make the deal,” Ballard said. “But (No. 6) is a good spot for us.”

Follow Colts Insider Stephen Holder on Twitter: @HolderStephen.