Perhaps, trying to be optimistic, it might work out better this way, after all. Maybe England will have the chance later in this tournament to be grateful they avoided the possibility of a quarter-final against Brazil. And, without wishing to get too far ahead of ourselves, perhaps this defeat will not matter greatly if England can find themselves in a position whereby it is Sweden or Switzerland trying to prevent them reaching the semi-finals rather than, in theory, the five-times world champions.

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Alternatively it might just be that England come to regret the night Gareth Southgate chose to field a vastly changed lineup – a vastly weakened one, too, on this evidence – when the reward for preserving their place at the summit of Group G would have been a tie against Japan in the last 16.

Instead England fell flat on a strangely subdued evening, full of intrigue but low on drama with the category-A players from both sides watching from the bench. It was a calculated gamble from Southgate and Adnan Januzaj’s winner, six minutes into the second half, means England will now have to take on Colombia next Tuesday, whereas Belgium get the plum tie against Japan the previous night.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Players from both side watch in awe as Adnan Januzaj’s winner flies past Jordan Pickford. Photograph: Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

Japan, to put it into context, are 61st in Fifa’s world rankings, just above Honduras, Finland, Mali and Cape Verde, yet six places worse off than the Panama side England have already walloped for six. Colombia will represent a much sterner challenge and there are bound to be questions about Southgate’s thinking if the game in Moscow goes badly.

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Southgate plainly felt it was a risk worth taking, making eight changes and giving Harry Kane the night off. Even when England were behind, Southgate resisted any temptation to call for the player who is currently leading the Golden Boot scoring charts. Instead it was Danny Welbeck who was brought off the bench. Kane was there, in his kit, and so were Raheem Sterling, Jesse Lingard, Dele Alli and quite a few others. Marcus Rashford could not beat Thibaut Courtois with England’s outstanding chance and in the closing minutes it could hardly be described as an onslaught on the Belgian goal. And yet Southgate did not seem too crestfallen.

As a spectacle this was a difficult one to assess. Roberto Martínez had put out a form of Belgium-lite, meaning the game went ahead with Thorgan Hazard, rather than his brother Eden, running at Phil Jones. Kevin De Bruyne’s absence further diminished Belgium’s powers. Romelu Lukaku was also given the night off, among nine changes, and it was a shame in many ways that the outstanding fixture of the group should be deprived of so many elite players. Hypothetical, perhaps, but it would have been much better fun if this fixture had been the first or second match, rather than with both teams already qualified.

This was Southgate’s supporting cast apart from Jordan Pickford in goal and John Stones in the centre of defence and, though Ruben Loftus-Cheek also kept his place, it was difficult not to think that was to give the fit-again Alli more recovery time for the possibility of two games in the coming week.

Nobody could say the two teams had been instructed to forgo their competitive instincts and, early on, Belgium’s players could be seen trying to convince the referee the ball might have crossed the goalline after a handling error from Pickford led to Gary Cahill’s recovery clearance.

Equally there were other moments when whistles could be heard from the crowd, frustrated by the lack of penalty-box incident. This had been such an attractive fixture but, with both teams experimenting, something was lost. The tempo had changed. England had played with so much raw energy in their first two games. Belgium had, too – but not here.

The tell-tale sign was when the first Mexican wave snaked round the stadium. On and on it went until it reached the end decorated in St George’s flags and, as always, died out immediately. Another one started and the same again. It made an interesting spectacle – the people throwing their arms in the air versus the saboteurs – but this was midway through the first half and did not say an awful lot for the match. An enthralled crowd does not usually need to make its own entertainment.

England barely created a noteworthy chance in the opening 45 minutes. Rashford flickered only sporadically. Jamie Vardy found it difficult to make any kind of impression and the wing-backs, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Danny Rose, seemed reluctant to venture too far forward.

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Rose, in particular, had a poor evening because he will have to accept a sizeable degree of culpability for Belgium’s goal. Januzaj deserves a lot of credit for a splendid strike once he had twisted past Rose with a little feint, a drag-back and a change of body direction. From an England perspective, however, Rose was beaten too easily and it was a flat-footed attempt to stop the danger. Januzaj was coming in from the right and let fly with a diagonal, rising shot that flew over Pickford despite the goalkeeper getting his fingers to the ball.

Finally there was a sense of urgency from England’s players. It was only briefly, though, and the game petered out without a great deal happening. Belgium’s understudies had outdone their English counterparts and Southgate will be glad to have Kane et al back for their next assignment.