Smartphones have become the preferred computer of the masses. Sales surpassed

those of personal computers in 2010, having grown over 50% per year for

several years. Nearly 500 million smartphones shipped

in 2011. This radically shifts the terrain in the consumer operating

system competition that was, for years, firmly decided in favor of

Windows. This article analyzes the New OS Wars.This chart shows how, over the past three years, smartphones have

decimated Windows’ long OS dominance in popular

computing.

Source: Horace Dediu of Asymco



Tablets play a role in this change, too. TechCrunch projects

iPad sales of 66 million this year. Forrester Research optimistically predicts

that tablet sales will explode to 375 million yearly by 2016.

Smartphones are killing off dumb feature

phones.

The shrinking light blue shading at the top of the chart below shows

the

rate at which feature phones are losing market share to smartphones in

the U.S.:

Sources: Asymco

and comScore



The chart also shows that Android and iOS market shares grew greatly,

while those

of Palm OS/webOS, BlackBerry OS, and Windows Phone/Mobile dwindled.



Now, let’s consider the future. Here is International Data

Corp’s

projection for world smartphone OS market share in 2015, contrasted

with real 2011 numbers. These estimates show Android and iOS doing

well over the next several years, with minor decline for BlackBerry OS

and major decline for Symbian OS.

The key point here — one that some other predictions dispute — is

that

Windows will dramatically come back in the market.

Source: Mobilemancer

and IDC



Winners

Google Android and Apple iOS are the big winners in the

new OS wars. Results over the past two years show dramatic growth

for

both. IDC projects that Android will gain another 5 to 10% market

share by 2015. They believe that iOS will retain about the same market

share in 2015, but

this still represents a cummulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.9%

for

the OS, given the rate at which the total market is growing. (These

predictions exclude tablet sales, an area in which Apple currently has

a huge lead.)

Windows?



Windows is the big question mark in all smartphone predictions.

Microsoft’s

smartphone market share has atrophied over the past couple years and is

only

about 5% of the worldwide pie today. In response, in February 2011

Microsoft inked a deal with Nokia, which agreed to

replace its popular Symbian OS with Windows Phone. The duo debuted

their first

Windows Phone 7 devices in 2011. Analysts

were generally positive about the products.

Microsoft’s goal is to create a third “smartphone ecosystem” to compete

with Apple iOS and Google Android. To that end it has not only signed

on

Nokia but also other partners including HTC, Dell, Samsung,

Acer, Fujitsu, and ZTE.

One challenge Microsoft faces is whether it can get developers on

board to create a viable universe of apps and downloadable content. The

New York Times estimates

that Windows Phone has over 70,000 apps, versus 600,000 for Apple

and 400,000 for Android. Beyond the numbers, there is the question of

whether Windows Phone has the right apps: those the public wants.

Microsoft pays

developers to join in. While some analysts see this as a sign of

weakness — which it is — I also see it as an astute move. Some

companies with Microsoft’s history might be too inflexible

or arrogant to pursue this necessary strategy.

Another issue is whether the Windows brand is a draw or a

liability. Microsoft believes it’s a big plus. They’ve kept the

Windows name and have even gone so far as to combine their smartphone

and

laptop/desktop operating systems. But it’s possible smartphone buyers

will see Windows as a legacy OS rather than a cutting edge offering.

(Do you want IE on your phone? How about Windows malware?) My feeling

is that the Windows brand will attract consumers and turn off the

technically-oriented.

The Microsoft – Nokia partnership presents interesting asymmetries. For

Nokia, it’s do or die. They’ve bet their company on this. In

contrast, Microsoft could survive a failure. It is diversified

with its sales of personal computer, enterprise, and gaming software.

The two

companies have different geographic strengths. Nokia sells best in

Europe and Asia, whereas Microsoft’s trump card has always been its

U.S. monopoly. Will these two

companies synergize? Or is this a mismatch?

My guess is that

consumers will give Windows Phone a fair test. If the

software is appealing and featureful, and if the apps are those

consumers want, there is room for a third smartphone

ecosystem to grow and prosper.





Niche Systems



BlackBerry OS — Only a few

years

ago, “BlackBerry” was synonymous with “smartphone” among North

Americans. But failure to respond in a timely fashion to the dual

challenges of Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android are slowly but surely

reducing

RIM’s market share.

A recent article titled “RIM

To Give Up Most Consumer Markets” quotes RIM CEO Thorsten Heins as

conceding the consumer smartphone market in order to concentrate on its

business customers: “We plan to refocus on the

enterprise business and capitalize on our leading position in this

segment… BlackBerry cannot succeed if we tried to be everybody’s

darling and all things to all people. Therefore, we plan to build on

our strength.”

If RIM indeed concedes the consumer market, BlackBerry OS will lose

market share faster than the above IDC

projections. RIM could end up with a strong niche serving business

customers.

Symbian OS — Symbian OS has a

larger presence in Europe and Asia than in the United States. Symbian’s

market share will recede

as Nokia pulls its support from the OS in favor of its

deal with Microsoft for Windows Phone. Nevertheless, over 400 million Symbian

phones have been shipped over the lifetime of the

OS.



webOS — webOS

was

introduced by Palm, Inc., as a successor to Palm OS in 2009.

Hewlett-Packard acquired webOS in April 2010, intending to use it in

smartphones, tablets, and printers. Since then HP

has backed off its aggressive plans, and in December 2011, it announced

it would open source webOS.

Does open source webOS have a future? It all comes down to whether

OEM’s use it and developers accept it. I believe that if Microsoft can

grow a Windows smartphone

ecosystem, a fourth ecosystem won’t be viable. WebOS will

be confined to niche status.





Bada, Tizen, and Others — There

are many other smartphone OS’s around, including Samsung’s Bada and Tizen

(evolved from MeeGo). Like webOS, these could be useful to

consumers and profitable for vendors, but I doubt any will achieve the

major market share required to become a third smartphone ecosystem. All

will be niche products.

Summary

Smartphones are now the preferred computer of

the common man. Sales are exploding; soon almost everyone will have

one. Smartphone

operating systems hugely impact overall OS market shares. iPads and

other tablets will also have

an affect. After years of stasis, the rise of the handhelds is

shaking up the somnolent market for personal computing operating

systems.

Google Android and Apple iOS are the big winners in this

OS shakeup. BlackBerry OS and especially Symbian OS appear

destined for lesser roles in the future. Samsung has a good niche with

Bada. webOS and Tizen might become niche products

or they could fail altogether.

The big question is whether

Microsoft and its partners can nurture a third smartphone ecosystem. If

so, we’ll have three dominant standards and a handful of popular niche

systems. Otherwise the Android/iPhone duopoly continues, with small

market share for Windows, and larger

possibilities for niche alternatives.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Howard Fosdick (President, FCI) is an independent consultant who

supports databases and operating systems. He also consults for vendors

as an industry analyst. Read his other articles here.