AP Photo Poll: Hurt by Trump, Rubio in 'too close to call' U.S. Senate race with Murphy

Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy is catching up to Sen. Marco Rubio and is nearly tied with him in a new Quinnipiac University poll that suggests Donald Trump is a drag on the incumbent Republican.

Rubio has a marginal 3-point lead over Murphy, 48 percent to 45 percent, in the latest poll of likely voters. However, last month’s Quinnipiac poll showed Rubio ahead by 13 points, 50 percent to 37 percent. Factoring in the new poll's 3-point error-margin, the Senate race is now "too close to call," Quinnipiac said in a news release.


The cumulative 10-point shift in Murphy’s favor comes amid bad local press for the Democrat and relatively little paid media that would normally lead to such a change.

Quinnipiac’s assistant polling director, Peter A. Brown, suggested Trump’s struggles are hurting Rubio in Florida — just as he appears to be damaging Republican Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania. Toomey trails his Democratic challenger, Katie McGinty, in the portion of the poll surveying likely Pennsylvania voters.

“At this stage of the campaign, Republican U.S. Senate candidates may be running against their own presidential nominee, Donald Trump, as much as they are against their Democratic opponents,” Brown said in a statement accompanying the poll results.

“The incumbent U.S. senators seeking re-election are running better than Trump,” Brown said. “But if Trump continues to lag behind in the presidential race, that will make it more difficult for GOP candidates, logic holds, up and down the ballot.”

Only one of the three Republican incumbent senators hasn’t seen his poll numbers drop in the month since Quinnipiac’s last swing-state poll: Ohio’s Rob Portman, who has been outspending his Democratic rival, Ted Strickland, on television. Quinnipiac surveys the three states together because every recent president has won two of the three.

In Florida, Trump was leading Democrat Hillary Clinton, 41 percent to 36 percent in July, with Libertarian Gary Johnson receiving 7 percent support and Green Party candidate Jill Stein pulling 4 percent support. Now, Trump and Clinton are tied at 43 percent each in the survey of 1,056 likely voters.

While Trump and Clinton remain unpopular in Florida, President Obama’s approval rating has soared

Quinnipiac’s polling technique suggests the electorate is trending more Democratic in Florida for now. In July, only 29 percent of respondents self-identified as Democrats while 31 percent said they were Republicans. In this survey of 1,056 voters, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats and 31 percent as Republicans.

Just after Rubio entered the race in late June, Murphy was the focus of a series of negative news stories that questioned whether he was inflating his resume and criticized him for skipping the only televised debate with his primary rival, Rep. Alan Grayson. Murphy said he wouldn’t stand on stage with his fellow member of Congress because Grayson was accused of beating his ex-wife.

A Rubio-Murphy race isn’t guaranteed. Both face primary challengers. But other polls indicate Rubio is highly likely to beat challenger Carlos Beruff on Aug. 30 and Murphy is ahead of Grayson.

Quinnipiac did not poll the Florida Senate primary but its general election match-ups show Rubio and Murphy are the strongest candidates in their parties. Murphy beats Beruff, 48 percent to 34 percent and Rubio defeats Grayson, 49 percent to 43 percent.

Rubio dropped out of the presidential race after Trump easily defeated him in the Florida primary.