As Toronto mayoral candidates enter the home stretch, Mayor Rob Ford is the only one gaining ground while once-frontrunner Olivia Chow has fallen behind him into third place, according to a new large-sample poll.

Forum Research’s automated phone survey of 1,945 Torontonians conducted Monday and Tuesday is certain to send shock waves through campaigns preparing for the critical post-Labour Day push to the Oct. 27 civic election.

“It looks like Rob Ford is on the comeback trail and although John Tory still has the lead, it is narrowing,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff.

The polarizing mayor’s rebound follows the crack cocaine scandal that made global headlines, city council stripping him of his powers, a rehab stint, his ongoing refusal to be interviewed by police about an extortion case involving the crack video, and lingering conflict-of-interest allegations.

Chow, the former NDP MP and widow of Jack Layton who was the clear voter favourite until early July, and who has repeatedly blasted Ford as being morally unfit for office, saw her fifth straight slump in the polls.

“Chow has been stalled for a long while,” Bozinoff said. “Her campaign needs a major reboot, a major rethink.”

Chow spokesman Jamey Heath said Wednesday that, while the former NDP MP will release some new policy this fall, she will focus on “promoting and reinforcing,” platform planks released last spring when she was in the lead.

In the poll, John Tory led with 34 per cent, Ford had 31 per cent, Chow had 23 per cent, and David Soknacki had 4 per cent. Seven per cent said they didn't know who to support, the highest number of undecideds registered by Forum since March. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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The first night of polling resulted in Ford and Tory in a statistical tie within the margin of error. Forum polled for a second night to get a larger sample size, Bozinoff said, to show “a clear leader this late in the campaign.”

Support for Ford grew 6 percentage points from early August, while Tory dropped 1 percentage point. Chow slid 2 percentage points while Soknacki dropped by 1 percentage point.

This was the first test of voter support since former TTC chair Karen Stintz quit the race. Some respondents who identified as former Stintz supporters migrated to fellow right-leaning centrist Tory, as expected, but more told Forum they had moved to the Ford camp.

Bozinoff said Ford “owns” the issues of low taxes, misspending and subway construction but “he has got to stay on message — no personal missteps.”

The mayor had not been higher than 27 per cent for four-and-a-half months. The new poll suggests he has rebounded from his low point, during and soon after his two-month rehab stint, when he sank to 20 per cent and a Tory aide declared him “done.”

Operating without the sophisticated campaigns of Tory and Chow, Ford has held only three policy announcements. He has commented on issues including the city’s raccoon “problem”, taken the ALS ice bucket challenge, attended debates and received rock star treatment at public events.

The poll is the first of the campaign to suggest he has a real chance to win — but only as long as three candidates are splitting the vote relatively evenly. The numbers suggest he would have difficulty remaining competitive if voters opposed to him coalesced around a single challenger.

If Ford is leading or close to the lead, soft supporters of the non-Ford candidate in third place could migrate to the candidate seen as having the best chance of defeating the polarizing incumbent.

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In a hypothetical three-way race without Soknacki, Tory had 36 per cent, Ford 31 per cent, Chow 26 per cent. Again, 7 per cent said they didn't know.

Ford was strongest in Scarborough (43 per cent), people with a high school education or less (44 per cent), and people ages 18 to 34 (38 per cent).

Councillor Doug Ford, the mayor’s brother and campaign manager, did not respond to the Star’s request for comment.

“The season is over and we're into the playoffs now,” said Bob Richardson, Tory’s campaign co-chair of the mayoral race. “We have an incredibly busy schedule for the next 60 days.”

Tory will unleash a major ad radio, TV, online and newspaper ad blitz “sooner rather than later” focusing on alleviating gridlock and his 53-kilometre, 22-stop, $8-billion “Smart Track” surface rail plan.

Bozinoff said Tory needs to steal some of Ford’s support in Scarborough, and some of Chow’s support in the city core, to cement his lead.

Heath said Chow will re-emphasize policies aimed at improving the lives of children, helping commuters with better bus service, creating affordable housing and reducing youth unemployment.

“This isn’t a single issue campaign,” he said. “We will, following Labour Day, be reminding people that Olivia is the only candidate speaking about a broad range of issues, that she is willing to invest in improving people’s lives now.”

Chow will also try to convince Torontonians that Tory’s Smart Track plan is based on unproven financing techniques that put the city at huge risk, and has no hope of being built in the seven-year timeframe he is promising.

Brian Kelcey, campaign manager for Soknacki, the business owner and former councillor largely self-financing his campaign, said his campaign will buy ads if he can afford them and otherwise rely on canvassing and social media.

“For us the next two months are the real campaign and we've got a tight window of a few weeks to show that the kind of surge we need is possible,” Kelcey said.

With files from Daniel Dale

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