This is the big one. After all the huffing and puffing, red-carpet showboating and shameless campaigning, after all the visits to obscure craft guilds and far-flung film festivals to scrape up extra votes, it’s time for the show. The 87th Academy awards may make or break careers, could thrust unknowns into the spotlight, or turn the previously-tolerated into the outright-ridiculed. The gargantuan, four-hour telecast has become a masterclass in product placement, Twitter-friendly stunts, and dead-eyed bonhomie; that, of course, is what makes it a great watch.

Plus, there’s one or two gongs to be dished out. This year has been particularly interesting with regard to the internal politics of the film industry, with American Sniper replacing Selma as the film that’s benefitting from real-world engagement, the most heavily campaigned movies – The Imitation Game, Wild, Foxcatcher – fading at the last, and the advance of what passes in Hollywood for avant-garde cinema – Boyhood, Birdman, Grand Budapest – sucking most of the awards oxygen their way.

Much ink in recent weeks has been spilled on the Oscars’ “diversity” problem – so different from last year, when12 Years a Slave’s triumph was hailed as the thin end of the wedge of proper change. David Oyelowo must count himself as properly unlucky; there seems to be absolutely no reason why his Martin Luther King shouldn’t have been on the ballot. Some blame Selma’s late final lock; others point to the ongoing obstacles to black film-makers’ career prospects.

Be that as it may, we have to play it as it lays. Here’s what we think will win.

Best picture

Guardian

Due to a change in voting regulations, the number of best picture nominees can vary year-to-year. Having introduced a 10-strong list in 2009, tinkering with the votes threshold meant that a film has to have a certain number of first-place votes on ballots cast to achieve a nomination. This year, only eight managed it, with – presumably – Foxcatcher or Wild losing out. I think we can safely discount Whiplash and Selma; neither are part of the best picture conversation in any serious way. After a poor outcome on home turf at the Baftas, The Imitation Game looks like it’s already run out of steam. The other Brit-science pic, The Theory of Everything, has its fans – particularly for its acting – but looks to be overshadowed by the big beasts. Likewise The Grand Budapest Hotel, which unexpectedly accrued the equal-highest number of noms, brings with it a core of devotees for tuba-parts-bicycle-riding auteur Wes Anderson, but whose style is probably too niche to go all the way.

Guardian

That leaves the three biggies. The late-breaking, inside-rail contender is American Sniper, which seemed a long way off at the beginning of the awards race; but its thunderous box office receipts and obvious resonance with the American public has turned it into a real best picture possibility. However, popularity is not all at the Oscars (see Avatar v Hurt Locker, 12 Years a Slave v Gravity, etc etc), and the gruff simplicities that Sniper trades in means that, in our view, it is likely to fall short. Conversely, Birdman and Boyhood feel like they are both potential winners; neither would be a surprise. Both are defiantly unconventional – Birdman for its “one-shot” showiness, and Boyhood for its accretional intensity – and both have harnessed their weapons to maximum effect. In the end, however, I expect Boyhood to get the nod. Birdman, however scabrous, despairing and tricksy, is basically a backstage comedy; Boyhood has a readily digestible thematic ambition that gives weight to its material and is most likely to get a response from the Academy voters.

Will win: Boyhood

Should win: Boyhood

Best actor

Guardian

When the nomination list was announced, it looked like a straight fight between two posh Brits both playing famous scientists: Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking and Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing. For reasons that are not entirely clear, Cumberbatch’s contendership has dropped like a stone, supposedly leaving the field clear for Redmayne. But while Redmayne still seems to be in the box seat, it may not be so easy, especially if there is a sniff of home support for Michael Keaton, in the comeback role of a lifetime as superhero-movie-casualty Riggan Thomson in Birdman. While Redmayne’s performance ticks all the boxes (character possessing authentic genius – check; crippling but not incapacitating disability – check; sensitive cheekbones - check) Keaton’s possesses a raw edge of lived experience that is undeniably gripping. Despite his cheerleading role in setting up Sniper, as well as the Raging Bull style weight gain, Bradley Cooper looks to be an outsider here, while no one (other than our own Peter Bradshaw) is talking about Steve Carell; perhaps the character he plays, millionaire killer John Eleuthère du Pont, is just too non-rootable for Oscar glory.

Will win: Eddie Redmayne

Should win: Michael Keaton

Best actress

Guardian

Right at the start of awards season, well before the Oscar nominations were announced, the word was that Julianne Moore had this in the bag for a movie hardly anyone had seen: the dementia study Still Alice. Despite some not-always-glowing reviews for the movie itself, Moore still seems out of sight of the rest of the field; partly, perhaps, an acknowledgement of one of the great American acting careers. Reese Witherspoon, in her pet project Wild, might have expected a little more credibility in the race, what with her burgeoning career as a producer, while Felicity Jones is entitled to be slightly piqued at the slavering admiration shovelled in the direction of her co-star Redmayne, while her performance is just as good, if not better, than his. Rosamund Pike, likeable as she is, is feeling the Gone Girl backlash and looks well out of the running, and it would be a miracle for the Academy to give its top award to Marion Cotillard for what is essentially a workplace relations drama.

Will win: Julianne Moore

Should win: Julianne Moore

Best supporting actor

Guardian

Like the best actress category, only one name has ever really been in the frame. Whiplash, the indie drama about a music student emotionally tortured by his jazz tutor, provided a chewy showcase for JK Simmons, a long-time down-the-credits man who took his chance, big time. Though Whiplash’s basic lack of plausibility has meant its chances in other categories were thwarted, Simmons created one of the great pantomime villains of modern cinema, and appears unstoppable in the Oscar race. Edward Norton may have a little skin in the game for his gamey turn in Birdman, while Mark Ruffalo and Ethan Hawke presumably looked like possibilities when the jostling began back in the autumn of 2014. Robert Duvall, in a film whose awards-potential went backwards from its promising, high-profile premiere at Toronto, is no doubt there on the strength of his distinguished career.

Will win: JK Simmons

Should win: JK Simmons

Best supporting actress

Another locked-in, no-arguments frontrunner: they may as well give Patricia Arquette the damn thing now. Her heartrending role as the mum in Boyhood has seen virtual unanimity for this category; worse luck for Laura Dern, Keira Knightley, Emma Stone and Meryl Streep. Dern and Knightley are, in any case, riding stumbling horses in Wild and Imitation Game respectively; Stone, arguably, has been swamped by the male elements in Birdman’s cast; and Streep looks to be there on reputation alone, with Into the Woods making little impact otherwise (noms for design and costume, none for music).

Will win: Patricia Arquette

Should win: Patricia Arquette



Best director

Guardian

Some authentic heavyweights have failed to make the cut: no Clint Eastwood or David Fincher, and James Marsh (who won a documentary Oscar in 2009 for Man on Wire) may have expected a nod for The Theory of Everything, considering the writer and two of his actors did. Selma director Ava DuVernay is also a notable casualty, but she doesn’t exactly have the track record. The best director and picture winner don’t always go hand in hand, but it’s a strong possibility. I think we can discount Bennett Miller and Morten Tyldum (Foxcatcher and Imitation Game respectively) for already rehearsed reasons of momentum, leaving three very directorly directors to fight it out. Iñárritu took the DGA award, the industry guild prize, so that suggests he will best Linklater and Anderson on the big night – even if Linklater’s looks like the most successfully realised artistic achievement. If Iñárritu does win, he’ll be the second Mexican in a row to take this one, after Alfonso Cuarón won last year for Gravity.

Will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu

Should win: Richard Linklater

Best original screenplay

Guardian

Here’s where things start to get fuzzy. The screenplay categories sometimes end up looking like strategic consolation awards, for films the Academy admires but doesn’t like enough to give the headline ones to. The last three winners in this slot were Her, Django Unchained and Midnight in Paris (though admittedly only the last of these was up against the eventual best pic, The Artist). So this year, working on the assumption Boyhood wins the big one, we can look to Birdman or Grand Budapest, or even the literary, studied script for Foxcatcher – all the more so since writing, per se, doesn’t seem like Boyhood’s strong point. Nightcrawler, the other one in the race, has largely dropped out of awards chat, so surely not likely. This could be Wes Anderson’s best shot at an Oscar: he’s been nominated twice before for writing, and may well cross the line first this time. Though hard-headed reasoning says Birdman is the strong, non-Boyhood candidate.

Will win: Birdman

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel



Best adapted screenplay

Guardian

With none of the likely best pic winners in this one, it’s an open field. The Brit science biopics seem to cancel each other out, even if critical opinion slightly favours The Theory of Everything, while Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice has somewhat stymied even willing audiences. Whiplash, as mentioned, is likely to burned up in this company, which leaves ... American Sniper. No one could call it finely crafted or sensitively observed, but it works on a basic level, and could end up be the Academy’s way of recognising the film’s achievements.

Will win: American Sniper

Should win: The Theory of Everything

Best animated film

Guardian

First, the big scandal: where the hell is The Lego Movie? Both a commercial smash and critically adored, it ought to be up for best picture, not just best animation. But, in a blow to the Academy’s credibility arguably more profound than David Oyelowo’s exclusion, it’s nowhere. Instead, we have three big commercial hits – The Boxtrolls, Big Hero 6 and How to Train Your Dragon 2 – and two for purists: Irish mythotoon Song of the Sea, and Studio Ghibli masterwork The Tale of the Princess Kaguya. As the nominees are picked by the industry, this waywardness is not unprecedented, but the winner invariably is one of the biggies. (Only with Spirited Away, in 2002, has it not come from a non-US source. The part-Australian Happy Feet and part-British Curse of the Were Rabbit had significant Hollywood backing.) On that score, you’d back Big Hero 6, the main Disney film; but doubts remain as to whether it has been clasped to the collective bosom in the traditional Disney manner. Dragon may sneak through, but so could Boxtrolls, which issues from Seattle’s indie Laika studio, and which should be the sentimental favourite.

Will win: Big Hero 6

Should win: The Boxtrolls

Best foreign language film

Historically, this category has seen some chaotic shortlists and results, with authentic masterpieces excluded from the process (each country can put forward only one film per year, meaning that, for example, France nominated Saint Laurent this year instead of 2013 Palme d’Or winner Blue Is the Warmest Colour). Attempts have been made to sort things out but this year’s Palme, Winter Sleep, didn’t make it; neither did the Dardenne brothers’ Two Days, One Night or Hungary’s White God. All these made a significant splash on the international circuit: those that remain have (mostly) cut bit of a dash too. The one largely unknown quantity is Estonian/Georgian film Tangerines, which doesn’t seem to have had much of a release outside its countries of origin. Argentina’s Wild Tales was reviewed well at Cannes, while Timbuktu, from Mauritanian-born Abderrahmane Sissako, has plenty of fans (plus Cannes’ Ecumenical Jury award). But the momentum looks to be with Leviathan, the Putin-baiting satire from Russia’s Andrey Zvyagintsev, and Ida, the moving Holocaust drama from Poland’s Pawel Pawlikowski. The latter, more digestible, simpler, and more obviously moving, is best placed to take the award – though Leviathan beat it to the Golden Globe.

Will win: Ida

Should win: Ida

Best documentary

Guardian

Another section that, away from the high-beams of the headline awards, can come up with some very odd outcomes. In recent years they have gone with the feelgooders – 20 Feet from Stardom, Searching for Sugarman, Undefeated – while the last “heavy” winner was Inside Job, Charles H Ferguson’s financial-sector investigation. This year, the most obviously uplifting work is The Salt of the Earth, Wim Wenders’ profile of photographer Sebastião Salgado, co-directed by Salgado’s son Juliano. Otherwise we’ve got gorilla wardens under threat in Virunga, the desperate final hours before the fall of Saigon in Last Days in Vietnam, and a mysterious street photographer who left 150,000 unseen pictures when she died in Finding Vivian Maier. But the hot ticket item has to be the Laura Poitras-directed Citizenfour, about Edward Snowden and the NSA scandal. We may be a little biassed, as the Guardian plays its part in the Snowden story, but it would be a major upset if Citizenfour lost.

Will win: Citizenfour

Should win: Citizenfour

Best song

We enter an alternative universe in this category: more often than not it’s a seemingly random collection of big pop acts who have been corralled into hit films, inspirational Disney ballads, and offcuts from whatever musical has sneaked out that year. 2015 seems to be all about consolation, with Selma’s Glory up against The Lego Movie’s Everything Is Awesome. I wouldn’t want to add to Selma’s pain, but Awesome is quite literally awesome. However, Selma will probably get the sympathy vote, and come out on top.

Will win: Glory (Selma)

Should win: Everything Is Awesome (The Lego Movie)

Best cinematography

Guardian

If there’s a sympathy vote in this section, it will go to British industry legend Roger Deakins, who is up to his 12th nomination (for Unbroken) but has never won. In truth, it’s hard to see the stodgy, Angelina Jolie-directed war pic delivering it for Deakins, but stranger things have happened. Likewise, Mr Turner has failed to set the Academy alight, so Dick Pope looks like an outsider, while the Ida team will be delighted, surely, with just a nomination. With no mention for Boyhood’s Lee Daniel and Shane Kelly, the way looks clear for Wes Anderson’s regular collaborator Robert Yeoman to face off against Birdman’s Emmanuel Lubezki, who won last year for Gravity. For that reason alone, we’re inclined to go for Yeoman; not that Lubezki isn’t brilliant – it’s that the Academy likes to spread things around a little.

Will win: Robert Yeoman (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Should win: Robert Yeoman (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Best visual effects

Guardian

This, traditionally, is the only place that Hollywood’s big money sci-fi and fantasy films get a look-in – though occasionally, such as last year with Gravity, things can overlap. This year the fanboys’ grumbling against the general disdain with which the Academy holds the work of Christopher Nolan is likely to materialise in a fob-off campaign that will snag an Oscar for Interstellar. But those disappointed with Interstellar’s po-faced philosophising may be rooting for the surreal invention of the more populist entries: Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, or, maddest of all, X-Men: Days of Future Past. That would get my vote.

Will win: Interstellar

Should win: X-Men: Days of Future Past