A pair of special elections taking place in the next week are getting attention from rejuvenated Democrats hoping to build momentum for the 2018 midterms. The race in Georgia’s 6th district has occupied the most air time thanks to Democrat Jon Ossoff’s youthful charisma and staggering fundraising hauls, but sudden moves by a few high-profile Republicans have drawn attention to the race in Kansas’ 4th district.

In a special election that’s flown largely under the national news radar, Republicans are suddenly pouring resources into helping Ron Estes defeat surging Democrat James Thompson in the race for the seat vacated by Mike Pompeo, who is now serving as Director of the CIA. The National Republican Congressional Committee put in a huge last-second ad buy, Vice President Mike Pence has recorded a robocall for use in the district, and even Texas Senator Ted Cruz is campaigning on behalf of Estes in the run up to April 11 vote.

While there’s no reliable public polling on the race, the Cook Political Report moved the race from “solidly Republican” to “leans Republican,” citing these developments. If Thompson wins, it would be a huge upset in a district that voted for Donald Trump by almost 30 points. Pompeo also won the seat in 2016 by more than 30 points. In addition to foreshadowing a potential enthusiasm gap for Republicans, a Democrat win would be a symbolic victory as Wichita, Kansas, is often considered “ground zero” in the modern anti-abortion movement.

Now that the seat appears to be in play for Democrats, the knives are out in Kansas as some Republicans in the state are blaming the candidate, not the party. “Ron’s run a horrible campaign,” a Republican operative in Kansas told the Washington Examiner.

It’s not hard to see. The ads Estes is running bring new meaning to the Trump term “low energy;” the state treasurer is seen standing waist-deep in a swamp talking in muted tones about the need to drain the influence of the Washington establishment. Meanwhile, Thompson’s ad is smart play for a Democrat running in a red state. He emphasizes his background in the military and his concern for veteran affairs, and close by shooting a big scary gun, a token nod to the state’s historic support for the Second Amendment.

New presidents historically suffer losses in the midterm election after they take office, and political pundits like to interpret the outcomes of special elections to fill seats vacated by presidential appointees as early barometers for the country’s mood going into the midterms.

But those races don’t necessarily translate to the subsequent midterms. In 2009, five House seats were vacated by people who went on to serve in Barack Obama’s administration — four Democrats and one Republican — and all five were won by the Democratic candidate. Despite the positive early signs, Democrats were destroyed in the 2010 midterms as they cost control of the House and their supermajority in the Senate.

That hasn’t stopped gleeful Democrats who are energized by the swell of protests in opposition to the Trump administration from presenting the Kansas race and Georgia 6 as evidence for a potential wave election in 2018:

https://twitter.com/2dSentence/status/851459208897863681

Could you imagine if we #flipthe4th, a solidly R+15 seat. Republicans in Washington would be shaking with fear. Vote @JamesThompsonKS #ka04 — ♻️ Christopher Zullo (@ChrisJZullo) April 9, 2017