Christopher Booker:

538's forecast model burst onto the political scene during the 2008 Presidential election, when founder Nate Silver calculated the results of the popular vote within one percentage point.

In 2012, he got it right again this time forecasting the electoral college votes correctly 332 votes for Obama, 206 for Romney.

But 2016, was a bit different. 538's forecast model sat well outside much of the popular narrative. Reuters had given Hillary Clinton a 90% chance of winning, The New York Times model gave her an 85% chance of winning. While 538, only gave her just over a 71% chance.