In the playoffs, no game is a guarantee, and every win is earned. The Chargers may be the toughest foe the Patriots have played at Gillette in the playoffs in a long time. Philip Rivers is having a fantastic year, their offensive skill players are incredibly dangerous, and the defense features a strong pass rush and secondary. A league-leading seven Chargers made the Pro Bowl, and the first team All Pro roster featured three players. More importantly, Anthony Lynn’s team has not lost a game outside of Los Angeles all season. New England is faced with a tough test, but it is one the team is more than capable of passing.

The path to victory is clear, in my opinion. Run early and run often. Despite ranking twelfth in yards allowed per attempt against the run, a commitment to the ground game is the key to victory for New England. As Mark Schofield broke down for Inside the Pylon earlier this week, the Chargers are able to consistently bring pressure with only four rushers. They do this by either using stunts and twists along the defensive line or by shifting edge rushers inside. If this sounds familiar, its because its exactly what the Giants did in Super Bowl 42 and the Eagles did last year. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa can abuse guards with their quickness, a scenario in which we’ve seen Shaq Mason struggle repeatedly, so the Patriots will have to stay out of situations that allow the Chargers’ defense to do this. Running the ball punishes a defense for going small, and it punishes pass rush techniques that get defenders out of position like stunts and twists. In addition, LA’s best linebackers are on injured reserve. All of this adds up to one strategy: run first, pass second.

Last week, that defense was able to shut down Baltimore by using seven defensive backs to combat their speed. However, I’m not convinced that defense has the personnel to stop a heavy running attack. Put Dwayne Allen, James Develin, and Sony Michel on the field often to wear down the defense. Remember the Divisional Round game against Indianapolis in 2004? Corey Dillon ran the ball 23 times for 144 yards, with Kevin Faulk chipping in another 56 yards on 11 carries. If the offense can replicate that kind of attack, it will be a long day for Los Angeles. A commitment to running from under center and keeping 12 or 21 personnel on the field will also open up room in the passing game.

Running the ball to set up the pass is about as cliché as it gets for offense in the NFL. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t work, though. The Chargers have had a very hard time covering running backs in the passing game, and this weakness can be exacerbated through the play-action pass. James White, Rex Burkhead, and even Michel have ability to run routes and be a factor in the passing game. With Los Angeles primarily running single-high safety schemes like Cover 1 and Cover 3, using the backs on flat routes should open up room after the catch. These routes can also setup wheel routes against defenders who struggle in coverage anyway. Adding a play-action element should freeze linebackers and free up even more space for a corps of receivers that is exceptionally dangerous after the catch anyway. Chargers’ Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley installed the Cover 3 scheme in Seattle that Brady tore apart in Super Bowl XLIX. I have no doubt he will watch that game and take away what New England did to beat the Seahawks. The Patriots won’t win if Brady is throwing it 50 times, because the Chargers will have an answer for that. The passing game will instead have to be efficient, with the running attack giving opportunities for the pass to work.

A commitment to beating Los Angeles on the ground is the clear path to victory. Doing so will keep the ball out of Rivers’s hands while wearing down the Chargers’ pass rush. This will setup the passing game for success when it is called upon in crucial situations. Slowing down the pass rush will give Brady more time in the pocket to find his receivers, and using to play action to slow down the linebackers and safeties will help receivers get open all over the field. Josh McDaniels will be dealt a difficult task in balancing the playcalling properly, but if he does properly, New England will be one game away from a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance.