This is a projection of possible seat tallies in an assembly election using data from the Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph poll of September 2013 (link), this being the latest poll carried out of Assembly voting intentions in Northern Ireland.

Using the proportional swing method, we can get an idea of which way an election might fall if this poll was reflected in the results. Generally the poll showed little change in the major parties’ support, with slight falls in support for the three biggest parties the DUP, Sinn Féin and the SDLP.

However there was big change among the medium-sized parties, with a complete sea-change among the UUP, NI21 and Alliance. The UUP has again declined in support, dropping 3 percentage points since the 2011 election, while Alliance increased 3 points, possibly reflecting their increased profile as a result of the flags protests. It should be noted that since the election the UUP has suffered 4 defections, inevitably effecting their support levels. The arrival on the scene of NI21 added to the shake up, the party recieved 4.7% across Northern Ireland, a very respectable showing considering it’s lack of solid foundation and shortage of personalities.

As a result, in the seat projection we see Alliance replace the UUP as fourth biggest party and even threaten the SDLP for the third party postition. Meanwhile the UUP sinks down into single figures for the first time, solidifying its fall from dominant party to minor player. NI21 on the other hand is on the up and up, according to the projection they would double their amount of seats, a more than respectable showing for the first time out. UKIP would also double their seats, going from 1 to 2 in Strangford.

As the major parties go, Sinn Féin remain as they were, the SDLP gain one and the DUP lose one, essentially the status quo, despite various controversies over the Boston College tapes or motions by DUP leader Peter Robinson to attract more Catholics to his party. The Green Party and TUV also show no change in seats, maintaining their single seat each despite an increase in voting intent.

It’s important to note that this poll took place before the Haas talks and the failure to reach agreement on those issues, we’ll have to wait and see whether this has had an impact on support levels.

There are a long list of important caveats to note with this projection. It was done using a simple proportional swing method, basically the performance of each party in each constituency is altered by the proportional change in support between the last election and the poll. So, for example, since the Greens got 44% more support in the poll than the election, each constituency they ran in gets 44% more vote. After that a simple D’Hondt system is applied to see who gets the seats.

This ignores any individual circumstances on the ground, transfer rates, campaign management, individual candidates, local scandals, etc and is merely a crude method of getting a sense of what change we might see if the poll results were reflected in an election.

The poll it was based on also lumped Others and Independents in with Don’t Knows so they were excluded for the seat projection. This is unlikely to have a big impact except in East Belfast and Foyle where the PUP or Dawn Purvis and People Before Profit have a good chance of winning a seat respectively, especially considering the increased support for smaller parties and slight drop in DUP and Sinn Féin support. People Before Profit also have a slim chance of a seat in West Belfast but would need a large swing.

This is on top of the usual caveats associated with Northern Ireland polls, that is, a tendency to under-report support for extreme parties and over-report support for moderate parties, though this tendency seems to not be as pronounced in recent years.