Two seats may for first time be decided by migrants, who make up majority of voters, with parties warned not to ignore this electorate

A record number of people who were born outside the UK will be able to vote in this year’s general election and are likely to hold the balance of power in several key constituencies, according to the first comprehensive analysis of the migrant vote.

Almost 4 million voters – about one in 10 of the entire electorate in England and Wales - are predicted to have been born overseas come May and, for the first time, it is predicted that more than 50% of voters of the eligible electorate will have been born abroad in two seats.

The report’s authors say the growing significance of the “migrant vote” is being largely ignored by the main parties and widespread anti-immigrant rhetoric risks alienating this key constituency for generations.

“Migrant voters are almost as numerous as current Ukip supporters but they are widely overlooked and risk being increasingly disaffected by mainstream politics and the fierce rhetoric around immigration caused partly by the rise of Ukip,” said Robert Ford from Manchester University, the report’s co-author. “Britain is more than ever an outward-facing, globalised country with a huge, hardworking, mobile electorate born overseas. However, the political debate fails to reflect that contemporary reality in any meaningful way.”

The report, by Ford and Ruth Grove-White from the Migrants’ Rights Network, is published on Thursday and based on an analysis of data from the census in 2001 and 2011 and the national statistics agency. It found:

• Almost 4 million people in England and Wales who were born overseas will be eligible to vote in May, compared with just under 3.5 million at the 2010 general election.

• Two seats – East Ham and Brent North – are predicted to be the first constituencies with a majority of the eligible electorate born abroad. In a further 25 seats they will constitute more than a third of the electorate and at least a quarter in another 50 seats.

• Most of these voters are highly concentrated in inner-city seats in London and the West Midlands and could hold the balance of power in several marginals.

• The voters come from former Commonwealth countries or the Republic of Ireland, or have become British citizens after living in the UK for five or more years.

The study says that although migrants will not vote as a bloc, previous patterns suggest they are likely to prefer parties viewed as positive about race equality and immigration – and are likely to turn their back on those engaged in hostile denunciations of migrants.

Ford said: “Ukip have made all the running with the immigration debate in the past few years and we have seen all of the parties looking to offer a harder line on migrants. But there is another side to this debate – millions of hardworking British citizens who came to this country from abroad who find this kind of rhetoric profoundly alienating … If the parties do not respond to that then they face lasting damage as this electorate is only going to become more significant.”

The study highlights seats where the migrant vote is likely have the biggest impact – areas where there are large numbers of eligible migrant voters and a relatively small majority for the sitting MP. In this “migrant power list” there are 12 Labour marginals, six Tory seats and two held by the Lib Dems.

Politicians, ignore the UK’s migrant voters at your peril | Robert Ford and Ruth Grove-White Read more

According to the report, the country that provides the most foreign-born voters in England and Wales is India, followed by Pakistan, the Irish Republic and Bangladesh.

Ford said: “What we have learned from the first wave of these migrants who came in the 1950s and 1960s is that first impressions matter profoundly and voters have very long memories. If these voters’ first exposure to politics is one in which they are viewed as an outside, threatening force then it risks alienating them in a way that will reverberate for years to come.”

Grove-White said: “Migrant voters, just like anyone else, want to hear what the parties are saying on issues that are important to them. Too often, though, the message is that they are not welcome here. Instead, politicians should put forward a bold vision in which migrants are an equal and valued part of 21st-century Britain.”





‘We are all minorities in Brent’

In the shadow of England’s national football stadium, Haji Momand pauses for a few seconds before answering with a smile.

“This is a very good place to live,” says the interpreter, 55, who moved from Afghanistan to the UK 19 years ago. “Look around … you can walk down the road and hear people from all over the world. And people get on, it works … people look out for each other.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Haji Momand, 55, in Ealing Road Photograph: Christian Sinibaldi/The Guardian

Momand is standing in the heart of Wembley, north London. A new study predicts that this constituency – Brent North – will be one of two at the next election where, for the first time, more than 50% of the eligible voters will have been born outside the UK.

The huge diversity of the area is clear within a few hundred metres of the railway station. Along Ealing Road the Muslim Welfare Association sits alongside the Central Mosque, which in turn is just a few doors down from the Buddhist centre. Further along the bustling high street is the predominantly Hindu Brent Indian Association building and the Methodist church.

For Brent North’s MP, Barry Gardiner, it is the area’s diversity that gives it its strength – and cohesion.

“The great thing is that we are all minorities in Brent. We know we have to get on, and by and large we do.”

He said the national debate around immigration had been distorted by Ukip and threatened to demonise people who had come to the UK over the past 50 years to work and bring up their children.

“These are the people who are prepared to leave everything in order to forge a better life for their children.

We should admire that and encourage them to help Britain grow stronger.”

The report from Manchester University and the Migrants’ Rights Network said that migrants do not vote as a bloc, but historically they tend to favour parties with positive attitudes to race and immigration.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Chandu Pandya, second from the left, plays cards with friends at the Brent Indian Association. Photograph: Christian Sinibaldi/The Guardian

However, that is not always the case. Chandu Pandya, enjoying his daily game of cards with friends in an upstairs room of the Indian Association, is clear the time has come to stop people coming to the UK altogether. The 72-year-old, who arrived from east Africa in 1968, takes a break from the game to explain.

“There are too many immigrants already we have got to stop them wherever they are from … My children are very well educated but can not find work because there are simply too many people here.”

But for Momand the increasingly hostile political debate around immigration is unsettling for him and his family.

“We do feel a bit more anxious about the way immigrants are being talked about … I suppose it makes us feel less welcome, less safe.”