ABC election analyst Antony Green says the Coalition has seized power in Victoria, ending Labor's 11-year reign.

Labor has suffered a swing of around 5 per cent to the Coalition, sweeping Premier John Brumby's Government from power and putting Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu on track to form the next state government.

The ABC election computer is predicting the Coalition will form government with 48 seats, with Labor on 40.

In key developments:

First preference votes have leaked from Labor to the Coalition.

First preference votes have leaked from Labor to the Coalition. Melbourne's suburbs led the revolt against Labor.

Melbourne's suburbs led the revolt against Labor. The Greens failed to take an inner city seat as had been predicted.

Labor saw a 6 per cent drop in its primary vote, with 3 per cent going to the Liberals, 2 per cent to the Nationals, and 0.7 per cent to the Greens.

The swing to the Coalition was centred mainly in metropolitan areas of Melbourne.

The ABC election computer had the Coalition gaining 13 seats, with the Liberals taking Bentleigh, Burwood, Carrum, Forest Hill, Frankston, Gembrook, Macedon, Mitcham, Mount Waverley, Prahran, Seymour and South Barwon from Labor and the Nationals gaining Gippsland East from independent Craig Ingram.

Liberal leader in the Upper House David Davies said he expected Mr Baillieu to be Victoria's next premier.

"I'm confident that we will get to 45 [seats]" he told the ABC.

New South Wales Opposition Leader Barry O'Farrell, who will face a deeply unpopular Labor State Government when New South Wales goes to the polls early in the New Year, has offered his congratulations to Mr Baillieu.

"Congratulations to Ted Baillieu and Vic Liberals - demonstrating the community sees thru [sic] Labor's usual negative campaigns," he said on Twitter.

Earlier today Mr Brumby, who had to change voting locations to avoid some protesters, appeared resigned to a swing against his government.

"I don't claim that everything we have done in government has been perfect," he said.

"It will be a tight election, but I think the difference at the end of the day is going to be about leadership for the future. It will be very close, very tight, and hopefully we will get a result tonight."

Mr Baillieu voted in his seat of Hawthorn today and said he was seeking to govern in his own right.

"We haven't done a deal with independents or Greens and we're not about to do a deal," he said.

"The message we're sending is clear. This is a tired, incompetent and out of touch Government that has had 11 years. They haven't delivered, they have left Victorians with big problems.

"We're going to do something about it; fix those problems and get on with it."