7 days -- One week out -- Republicans expect to be crushed in historic landslide: buy emergency time in Montana and West Virginia Presented by Facebook

GM seeks Treasury $$$ ... GOP blame game now reaches down to state parties — Al Hunt is in Obama's gym pool at this moment — Michelle Obama shops J. Crew online, plans to work with military families, pushes early voting and warns against overconfidence — Maureen alert: Toot calls her grandson “Bear” — Wesley Fricks engaged — Dan Senor and Campbell Brown expecting No. 2

BREAKING, from Politico’s Jonathan Martin: The Democratic National Committee takes out a $10 million line of credit to help House and Senate committees maximize gains AS PARTY OFFICIALS SEE MORE RACES COMING INTO PLAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HOUSE. Money to be split between committees. Similar to DNC move in '06.


***TOMORROW'S FRONT PAGE TODAY — J-Mart: "The goal: ... a massive governing majority and making it more difficult for the GOP to recapture power in future cycles."

Good Tuesday morning. The Republican National Committee buys TV time in deep-red MONTANA and WEST VIRGINIA, a sign the party is scrambling to stave off a historic landslide a week from today. “Tough environment,” one Republican official says sardonically. The McCain campaign has not officially given up on VIRGINIA but a top official concedes it is LOST, while maintaining that a PENNSYLVANIA miracle can still get Sen. McCain to 270. He and Gov. Palin will be there repeatedly before Election Day. But should they also be shoring up Nevada, now a must-win?

DAVID BROOKS PREDICTS “OBAMA BY 9” in a chat with local reporters before a college speech in North Adams, Mass.: “I have a wager with an Obama pollster, who says he'll win by seven” — The Berkshire Eagle. (Hat tip: Romenesko)

The Washington Times endorses ... John McCain.

Gov. Palin, to Fox's SEAN HANNITY on "Hannity & Colmes": "I think it's very close, and I think there is a lot of enthusiasm. ... John and I have both been in that underdog position over and over again. And you know what? I, in my career, happen to take on the good old boy network more than once. Having the scars to prove it. Being in the underdog position, it motivates us. Makes us work harder. And I believe that yes, the wisdom of the people will prevail on Nov. 4.”

ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, on a “demoralized” McCain campaign: “Palin is going to be the most vivid chapter of the McCain campaign's post-mortem. … Those loyal to McCain believe they have been unfairly blamed for over-handling Palin. They say they did the best they could with what they got.”

***In convo with Playbook, a top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless “diva” description, calling her “a whack job.”

DRUDGE BANNER, illustrated by the carton to an Obama superhero doll, ASKS: “ABCCBSNBCNYTLATWSJCNNMSNBCAPREUTERSAFPPOLITICOFTTIMEWASHPOSTNEWSWEEK: CAN THEY ALL BE WRONG?” Links to a column about media bias.

WashPost Howard Kurtz, online this a.m.: "'If the mainstream media are wrong about Obama and the voters pull a Truman, that is going to be the end of whatever shred of credibility they have left,' says Tobe Berkovitz, associate dean of Boston University's College of Communication."

NEWEST POLL -- Reuters’ John Whitesides: “Obama has a 4-point national lead over Republican John McCain as they head into the final week of the presidential campaign, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday. Obama leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, a slight dip from his 5-point advantage on Monday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points."

Politico’s Jonathan Martin says Florida is tilting toward Obama: “Even if Obama doesn’t take Florida — and most Republicans still believe McCain can win there — the Democrat’s decision to compete so aggressively in the Sunshine State has hampered the Arizona senator’s national campaign by forcing him to scramble to spend time and money late in the race on a state thought to be safely in the GOP column as late as the two national conventions.”

USA Today: Obama’s half-hour, prime-time commercials on CBS, NBC and Fox at 8 p.m. tomorrow “cost Obama nearly $1 million apiece. … ABC and Obama could not reach a deal.”

SCOOP — Politico’s John Bresnahan, “Reid eyes Byrd ouster”: “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is quietly preparing to ease 90-year-old Sen. Robert C. Byrd from his perch as chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Democratic insiders tell Politico. Reid has not yet discussed his plans with Byrd. But in a recent closed-door meeting with his advisers in Las Vegas and a private conversation with Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii), Reid has laid out a scenario that would have Inouye — the committee’s second-ranking Democrat — taking over Byrd’s chairmanship by the time the 111th Congress convenes in January. Byrd — the longest-serving senator in U.S. history — would become chairman emeritus, likely retaining coveted office space in the Capitol near the Senate floor. He would also remain Senate president pro tempore, which leaves him third in line to the presidency even though his health now makes even routine public appearances both arduous and awkward.”

***LIEBERMAN ALSO OUT: Bres reports that Reid hopes Sen. Lieberman will “voluntarily” leave as Homeland Security Committee chairman after energetically backing McCain. We’re told he’ll be booted if not.

TOP STORY — DEFIANT STEVENS WON’T DROP OUT — Banner of print Politico — Sen. Ted “Stevens [R-Alaska] Found Guilty, Career in Doubt — A messy, chaotic trial ends with a clear, decisive verdict — Senator vows to remain a candidate [on Nov. 4] but voters, colleagues get the last word”: “[T]he Senate can expel members with a two-thirds vote … [O]f the four members convicted of crimes since 1905 … [t]hree resigned in disgrace — the last one was New Jersey Democratic Sen. Harrison Williams in 1982 — and one died before he could be booted out. The people of Alaska may spare Stevens from such a decision. Even before jurors convicted him on seven felony [corruption] counts Monday, Stevens was running neck and neck with his Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Unless voters rally hard around their beleaguered ‘Uncle Ted,’ his conviction should send his poll numbers plummeting.”

SPOTTED: Bloomberg’s Albert R. Hunt — “The Colonel” — in the pool this morning to accompany Sen. Obama to the gym. Full text tomorrow.

SPOT -- A new McCain ad today is called “ Compare” — A female announcer, as the screen alternates between shots of Obama and sunny shots of McCain: “Your choice...For higher taxes ... for workin' Joes. Spread your income ... keep what's yours. A trillion in new spending ... freeze spending, eliminate waste. Pain for small business ... economic growth. Risky ... proven. For a stronger America, McCain.”

CABLE BAIT – The (Norfolk) Virginian-Pilot: “A phony State Board of Elections flier advising Republicans to vote on Nov. 4 and Democrats on Nov. 5 is being circulated in several Hampton Roads localities, according to state elections officials. In fact, Election Day, for voters of all political stripes, remains Nov. 4. The somewhat official-looking flier — it features the state board logo and the state seal — is dated Oct. 24 and indicates that ‘an emergency session of the General Assembly has adopted the follwing (sic) emergency regulations to ease the load on local electorial (sic) precincts and ensure a fair electorial process.’” PHOTO HERE.

ANOTHER R ENDORSES OBAMA — in a WashPost op-ed — Charles McC. Mathias Jr., who represented Maryland in the U.S. House from 1961 to 1968 and in the U.S. Senate from 1969 to 1986.

MICHELLE OBAMA, TO JAY LENO ON “THE TONIGHT SHOW”:

• “I say this on the trail all the time: Barack Obama is the underdog until he's sitting in the Oval Office,” she said to applause. “When you're named Barack Obama, though, you are the underdog. You start off a few points behind with that name.” Leno noted that if Obama wins, his name could become as common as “Joe Smith in 15 to 20 years.”

• Michelle Obama — like her husband, a Harvard Law School graduate — noted that she has “focused a lot on military spouses” in her events, and added that “it's an issue that I'd love to continue to take on if we are fortunate enough to get into the White House.”

• She said their two daughters “quite frankly … could care less” about the campaign. “When he comes home, they're like, ‘Let me show you my soccer trophy,’” she said. The Obama campaign has bought a half-hour on all the networks on Wednesday night and when Malia, who’s 10, overheard their dad telling his mother-in-law about it at the kitchen table. “She says, ‘You're going to be on all the TV? … Are you going to interrupt my TV?’” Michelle Obama recalled, to laughter. “He said, ‘No, we didn't buy time on Disney and Nick.’ And she said, ‘Oh, good.’ And she got up and walked away. She was just like, ‘Don't mess with my TV.’”

• Leno joked about whether she had paid “60 grand” for her outfit and she drew applause by replying: “Actually, this is a J. Crew ensemble. … Ladies, we know J. Crew. You get some good stuff online. … When you don't have time, you've got to click. You've got to click, click on.”

• Describing her husband as “very romantic,” she told about their 16th anniversary, in early October, when the senator’s campaign press pool accompanied him on his shopping. “I was reading the clips, and I saw that he had bought me flowers before he gave me the flowers,” she said. “I read it in the paper. Sort of took — he came home. I was like, ‘Oh, lovely.’ … I knew they were white.”

• Grandma “Toot” calls her grandson “Bear.”

THE BAILOUT SPREADS – N.Y. Times A1, “The Bush administration is examining a range of options for providing emergency financial help to spur a merger between General Motors and Chrysler, according to government officials. People familiar with the discussions said the administration wanted to provide financial assistance to the deeply troubled Big Three Detroit automakers, possibly by using the Treasury Department’s wide-ranging authority under the $700 billion bailout program that Congress approved this month. Another option under consideration is to tap a $25 billion loan program that Congress just created to help the auto companies modernize their plants. A third option would involve going back to Congress, immediately after the Nov. 4 election, for authority to spend funds aimed specifically at the auto industry.”

NYC MAY SEEK FEDERAL BAILOUT -- “BUDGET DISASTER LOOMS” FOR N.Y. – Daily News cover – “The state's projected budget gap for next year has ballooned to a record $12.5 billion, a Paterson administration source disclosed Monday. The staggering 2009-10 deficit estimate, which will be included in the midyear financial plan Gov. Paterson releases today, surpasses the previous record of $11.2 billion the state faced after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. It's also nearly double the $6.4 billion deficit estimate for 2009-10 the Paterson administration released in August. … In an appearance in Buffalo Monday, Paterson sounded increasingly dire warnings about the impact the Wall Street crisis was having on state finances. He said he hasn't ruled out any cost-cutting measures, including layoffs of state employees, slashing school spending or asking for federal help.”

THE CRISIS -- “Cost of crash: $2,800,000,000,000”: The (British) Guardian banner – “Autumn's market mayhem has left the world's financial institutions nursing losses of $2.8tn, the Bank of England said today, as it called for fundamental reform of the global banking system to prevent a repeat of turmoil ‘arguably’ unprecedented since the outbreak of the first world war. In its half-yearly health check of the City, the Bank said tougher regulation and constraints on lending would be needed as policymakers sought to learn lessons from the mistakes that have led to a systemic crisis unfolding over the past 15 months.”

Bloomberg News: "Sarkozy Adds 100,000 Government-Subsidized Jobs in 2009 Budget."

REAL WORLD – AP’s Pamela Hess: “A top al-Qaida in Iraq operative killed during a U.S. raid on a Syrian compound just over the Iraq border was about to carry out an attack in Iraq, U.S. officials say.”

SCOOP – WSJ A1: “In a major policy shift, … [s]enior White House and military officials believe that engaging some levels of the Taliban -- while excluding top leaders -- could help reverse a pronounced downward spiral in Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan. The outreach is a draft recommendation in a classified White House assessment of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan.”

THE DAY’S TOP CLICKS – Both L.A. Times front page – “Confessions from the campaign trail”:

--MAEVE RESTON tells what it was like to cover McCain for a year. (“Early on, McCain offered an openness that was rare, if not unprecedented. Now, as the campaign plunges into its final days, that intimacy -- real or imagined -- is gone.”)

--PETER NICHOLAS tells what it was like to cover Obama for a year. (“Covering Obama 18 hours a day -- in and out of the limelight -- offers few glimpses of his true self. When in robo-candidate mode, he can be sort of dull, a Times reporter finds.”)

YOUTUBE DU JOUR – Chuck Norris, “ black-belt patriot,” for the NRA. (Hat tip: Taylor S. Gross)

For Nelson -- FACT CHECK: AP’s Nedra Pickler rules “DEBATABLE” the Obama claim that McCain “still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he'd do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy”: “The Obama campaign says the key word of Obama's statement is ‘major,’ and the differences that McCain points to are minor details.”

TOP TALKER -- WashTimes A1, Ralph Z. Hallow, “McCain camp irks GOP leaders in key states” – examples are OH, VA, Michigan – CO and FL say the campaign was fine: “Republican Party leaders from several states … have begun privately voicing reservations about McCain strategies and the campaign's failure to return phone calls or respond to suggestions and offers of volunteer support. … The leaders also question Mr. McCain's decision to embrace the ‘$700 billion Wall Street bailout,’ which riled voters, and his reluctance to make issues out of his Democratic rival's relationships with his inflammatory former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and with Bill Ayers.”

MODERATES AND EVANGELICALS ALREADY FIGHTING OVER WHO’LL RUN FOR RNC CHAIRMAN IN JANUARY – L.A. Times’ Peter Wallsten: “[M]any Republicans are bracing for McCain to lose the election, leaving the party with no obvious leader with broad public appeal at a time when President Bush is exiting the national stage as a depleted figure. … Some conservatives argue privately that an Obama victory would clear out strategists and policy thinkers from the Bush era and the McCain campaign, leaving the party in a better position to rebuild itself as a contrast to the Democrats, who would have control of Congress as well as the White House. They also note that, even in a year of Democratic strength, there are some positive signs for conservatives. Gay marriage bans, for example, stand a chance of being approved by the voters in two big states, California and Florida.”

SECRET SERVICE SAYS THERE WAS NO FORMAL ASSASSINATION PLAN — AP’s Laura Jakes Jordan: “Two white supremacists [a 20-year-old from Tennessee and an 18-year-old from Arkansas] allegedly plotted to go on a national killing spree, shooting and decapitating black people and ultimately targeting Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, federal authorities said Monday.”

Sen. Obama reaction, to KDKA, the CBS station in Pittsburgh: “I think what has been striking is the degree to which these groups have been marginalized. … What I found is people here don’t care what color you are. They want to know who can deliver just like the Steelers. They don't care the color, they want you to make the plays. I think the question they have been asking, is Obama going to follow through on his tax cuts to the middle class, will he work on the health care issue?” Asked if he’s worried, Obama replied: “I have the best folks in the world, Secret Service.”

N.Y. Post – An armed skinhead takes up the whole cover — “WHACK JOB: Loony skinheads in Obama murder plot.”

HOW THEY SEE US: A photo of a smiling Sen. Obama, smiling in a trim suit against fall foliage, takes up one-third of the front page of The (London) Daily Telegraph, with the headline, “Obama death plot foiled.”

D.C. LIFE -- WashPost A1: “Metro to Randomly Search Riders’ Bags.”

MAZEL TOV – Campbell Brown and Dan Senor are expecting No. 2 in April. Eli James Senor was born in December ’07.

ENGAGED – DCI Group senior account executive Wesley Fricks — alumnus of the White House, Bush-Cheney ’04, Auburn, the Kappa Alpha Order and Smith Point — on Sunday night, to Deborah “Blake” Simpson, of Raleigh. She’s a double University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill alum (undergrad and law), and is now an intellectual property attorney at Smith Anderson. They lead their youth group together.

ASK PETE SEAT … how his Phillies looked from lower level, section 135, about 30 rows up from third base in Citizens Banks Park. He finally spotted a Rays fan.

SPORTS BLINK – Philly Inquirer: “Field of Streams: Game 5 Suspended”: “What was pretty much a drizzle for the first three innings turned into a downpour that left the infield a muddy mess and the grass dangerously slick, resulting in the suspension of the game at 11:10 p.m. after 51/2 innings with the teams tied at 2-2. The game will be resumed at the point it was stopped.” AP: “They could play Tuesday night, provided everyone has enough notice, but one look at The Weather Channel made that possibility doubtful. The Phillies lead three games to one, needing one more win for their first championship since 1980.”

DESSERT – AP wraps up the late-night comedy:

"Political experts say that John McCain's only chance of winning the election next week is to attract swing voters. Unfortunately, McCain thinks swing voters are people who listen to Glenn Miller." — Conan O'Brien, NBC's "Late Night."

"They say now that Barack Obama is so far ahead in the polls, that the only way he could mess up the election is if he ... got rid of Joe Biden and replaced him with Andy Dick." — David Letterman, CBS's "The Late Show."

"The other day, a guy who played a game of basketball against Barack Obama said that Obama spent the whole game 'trash talking.' He also said Obama's trash-talking is eloquent, high-minded and inspirational." — Conan O'Brien, NBC's "Late Night."

"Today in Alaska the Anchorage Daily News, Alaska's largest newspaper, guess who they endorsed: Barack Obama. I know! That's another newspaper Sarah Palin will never read." — Craig Ferguson, CBS's "The Late Late Show."

"Sarah Palin has spent $150,000 on clothes. $150,000 on clothes. I'm telling ya, it would have been cheaper if McCain had picked Ellen Barkin. But that's nothing. She's got an even higher tab at LensCrafters." — David Letterman, CBS's "The Late Show."

Follow us on Twitter Anna Palmer @apalmerdc



Jake Sherman @JakeSherman