The population worldwide is aging rapidly, according to a new study, and the trend is playing out in San Diego County as well.

According to the U.S. Census, the global phenomenon is caused by declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy. By 2050, the world’s 65-and-older population will increase to almost 1.6 billion people.

In San Diego County, 13.1 percent of the population was age 65 and older in 2015. By 2050 it will be 20 percent, one in five people. The northeastern areas of the county is currently home to the largest percentage of the older population, and the trend is projected to continue in 2050.

About 23 percent of California’s population is projected to be 65 and older by 2050, increasing ten percentage points from 13.3 in 2015. In California’s 58 counties, the 65-and-up population ranged from 9.5 to 29.2 percent in 2015, and is projected to be between 14.1 and 40.3 percent in 2050. One-quarter or more of the population will be 65 and older in 22 counties.


(Michelle Gilchrist)

The population in the United States as a whole will also become much older, projected to almost double from 48 million to 88 million in 2050. But it will age at a slower rate compared to other countries. The U.S. was the 48th oldest country out of 228 countries and areas in 2015 with 14.9 percent of the population 65 and older. That group will increase to 22.1 percent in 2050 and the U.S. will fall to 85th. Baby boomers who began turning 65 in 2011 will be over 85 in 2050, and are largely responsible for the increase.

An estimated 8.5 percent of the global population was 65 and older in 2015. In 2050, one in six people, almost 17 percent of the population worldwide, will be 65 and older. By 2020 people 65 and older will outnumber children under five for the first time in history. And by 2050 the proportion of the population 65 and older will more than double children under five. By 2050, the 80 and over population is projected to more than triple from 126.5 million in 2015 to 446.6 million.

(Michelle Gilchrist)


By region, Europe had the largest percentage — 17.4 — of the population 65 and older in 2015. By 2050 one in four Europeans will be 65 or older. Asia will be home to almost two-thirds of the world’s older population, 975.3 million in 2050. In Africa, the youngest region, just 6.7 percent of the population will be 65 or older in 2050. The projected growth of the older population will present challenges to countries, policy makers and programs worldwide.