1. UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in the three months to October 2018

Figure 1: Rolling three-month growth was slightly lower than the relatively high growth seen in Quarter 3 2018 UK GDP growth, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017 until August to October 2018 Source: Office for National Statistics, GDP monthly estimate Notes: Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept), Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec). Rolling three-month data are calculated by comparing GDP in a three-month period with GDP in the previous three-month period, for example, GDP in August to October compared with the previous May to July. Download this chart Figure 1: Rolling three-month growth was slightly lower than the relatively high growth seen in Quarter 3 2018 Image .csv .xls

Commenting on today’s GDP figures for the three months to October, Head of National Accounts Rob Kent-Smith said:

“GDP growth slowed going into the autumn after a strong summer, with a softening in services sector growth mainly due to a fall in car sales. This was offset by a strong showing from IT and accountancy. “Manufacturing saw no growth at all in the latest three months, mainly due to a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry. Construction, while slowing slightly, continued its recent solid performance with growth in housebuilding and infrastructure.”

Figure 2: Three-month growth reflected the lower level seen in the three months of the base period Monthly index, UK, May 2018 to October 2018 Source: Office for National Statistics, GDP monthly estimate Download this chart Figure 2: Three-month growth reflected the lower level seen in the three months of the base period Image .csv .xls

In today’s headline figures, the three months of August, September and October 2018 (the current period) are being compared with the months of May, June and July 2018 (the base period). While the three most recent monthly growths were broadly flat, the lower level in the base period gives a comparatively strong rolling three-month growth rate. This can be seen in Figure 2, where the levels for the current period are higher than the levels for the base period.