Assuming Indiana voters don’t shock the pollsters tomorrow, Donald Trump will win the Hoosier State, and with that win all-but-clinch the Republican nomination for president.

How did things get here? Cruz was always a long shot for the nomination, but as the field cleared and it became clear that the Texan was the only viable alternative to Trump, states like Indiana were expected to be a firewall, preventing Trump from reaching the majority of delegates required to capture the nomination on the Republican National Convention’s first ballot. Instead, Cruz goes into Tuesday’s primary a deep underdog. The last poll, from NBC, The Wall Street Journal, and Marist, even had Trump up 15 points, though most show a slightly closer race.

Maybe momentum really is real, and Trump’s riding the wave of his huge wins in the Northeast a week ago. Maybe the visceral loathing of Cruz from his fellow Republicans finally caught up with him. Maybe that “basketball ring” gaffe was lethal. But Indiana is supposed to be the sort of state where Cruz would shine.

The state is heavily white. It’s just about average in terms of conservatism overall, but the state has recently tended to elect, and the Republican Party to nominate, leaders who are Tea Party oriented and deeply socially conservative, from Governor Mike Pence to unsuccessful 2012 Senate nominee Richard Mourdock. More than a quarter (26 percent) of Indianans identified as white evangelical protestants, according to the Public Religion Research Institute’s American Values Atlas. That’s the ninth-highest concentration of evangelicals nationwide, and almost nine points higher than the national average of 17.3 percent. In the 2012 election, exit polls recorded that fully 35 percent of Indiana voters identified as white, born-again Christians.