Should Zach Britton be a Starter?

If you expected BSL’s first post since the O’s were ousted from the playoffs to be us waxing poetic about the season and all that the 2014 Orioles achieved; well, you don’t know us very well at all. If you want to know how I feel about the Orioles this season, I recommend you pick up Baseball Prospectus’ 2015 Annual where you can read my essay on the O’s 2014 season. We’ll wrap up the 2014 season for sure, but it’s never too early to start thinking about 2015, and that’s just what we’ll start doing right now.

Discuss this post and more offseason decisions on the BSL forums here.

O’s fans should be familiar with discussion around turning into starters. After all, this discussion happened nearly every offseason for at least the past five years. Let’s make Jim Johnson a starter, or not, has been a common theme to O’s offseasons. This offseason will be no different. Should Zach Britton be moved back into the starting rotation After all, Britton has a better case for being moved to the rotation than Jim Johnson ever did.

There are plenty of reasons that Britton should stay in the bullpen. He was an excellent closer in his first full seasons as a reliever, recording 37 saves in 71 games while posting a 1.65 ERA for the birds. Now, his peripherals (BABIP and FIP especially) would suggest that Britton was pretty lucky this season, but that’s really neither here nor there. He did it on the back of his sinker, which he threw more than 90% of the time this season. He only mixed in a handful of curveballs, so it was really his sinker alone doing the heavy lifting.

Ironically, Britton’s signature pitch was a happy accident. The O’s coaching staff intended to teach Britton a cutter, but the resulting sinker has transformed into one of the better pitches in baseball. It’s also at the center of the debate around whether Britton could transition back into the rotation if he wanted to. The common refrain is that you can’t throw 90% sinkers in the rotation. While that’s true, it’s missing the point. The other stuff was never the problem for Britton.

His career as a starter wasn’t exactly what the O’s expected from the former Top 100 prospect. His career 4.86 ERA as a starter left a lot to be desired, resulting in the O’s giving Britton as he was left out of an already crowded rotation heading into 2014. Britton flourished, largely because of his heavy sinker usage. That sinker picked up more than 3 mph from his time as a starter, something that Britton would largely give back should he transition back into the rotation.

The difference though is how opposing hitters are handling the sinker. In 2014 opposing hitters were held to a .191 batting average and .270 slugging percentage against Britton’s sinker. Take those numbers with a grain of salt as batted ball results over a single season are extremely volatile. That said, those numbers suggest that Britton’s sinker is an elite level pitch especially among left handed pitchers. The critique here is that Britton can’t throw his sinker 90% of the time as a starter, though it’s one that is easily answered.

The chart below shows the batting average and slugging percentage against Britton’s various pitches as a starter:

Pitch AB BAA SLG Fourseam 185 .384 .616 Sinker 492 .274 .384 Change 143 .256 .371 Slider 86 .116 .128 Curve 22 .091 .091

As a starter Britton had two pitches that really killed him. They were his fourseam fastball and his sinker. The 2011-2013 sinker and the 2014 sinker though appear to be two different animals. Britton doesn’t need to throw his sinker 90% of the time because his offspeed and breaking stuff was never the issue. In fact, you could make the argument that Britton’s breaking balls and offspeed stuff were his best tools as a starter. The batted ball data would suggest that opposing hitters were sitting on the hard stuff, and hitting it well.

Should Britton be moved back to the rotation, it’s safe to assume he’d ditch the fourseam fastball altogether. He might also leave out the sinker, a pitch he hasn’t throw in an MLB game since 2012 in favor of the curveball, which seems to be a better pitch anyway. Adding back in the change up gives Britton three average or better pitchers: sinker, curveball, change up. That repertoire would no doubt be enough to help him excel as a starter.

Zach Britton was a starter as recently as last season, which is a hurdle that often confounded those who advocated for Jim Johnson in the rotation. It would not be difficult for the O’s to stretch Britton out given he’s recently been a starter in terms of workload. Cross off that objection.

Now there’s more to this than Britton. The O’s have six starting pitchers under contract for next season who all have a case to make for being in the rotation on opening day. They also have Dylan Bundy who will presumably be ready for a spot in the rotation by mid-season, further complicating the matter. Adding Britton to that mix seems silly given the glut of options the O’s already have.

It could make sense though, as the club could maximize their resources in doing so. Suppose the O’s resign Andrew Miller to a 3/$24MM deal to be their closer. Britton moves into the rotation, and the O’s could then trade some of their controlled starting pitching for upgrades at other positions of need. If Britton struggles in the rotation the O’s could replace him with Bundy, and move Britton back into the bullpen with O’Day and Miller.

It’s a possibility. Is it a probable scenario? No. There are reasons to believe though, that Britton could excel as a starter once again. The idea has to be enticing to an O’s front office that can clearly see its starting pitching talent is almost entirely right-handed and generally very flyball prone.

Should Zach Britton be stretched out as a starter for 2015? Realistically, no. It’s not as crazy a notion as trying to make a starter out of Jim Johnson was though.