Our recommended squad brought home 49 points in Gameweek 27, courtesy of Austrian pair Marko Arnautovic (2 goals and maximum bonus: 15 points) and Christian Fuchs (clean sheet and maximum bonus: 9). With the gameweek average a low 33 points, we were able to make it 4 weeks of above-average performances on the bounce, so read on as we attempt to make it 5 with the Premier League games coming thick and fast…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Arsenal 54% Man Utd 2 50% Leicester 2.05 49% Everton 2.3 43% Chelsea 43% Stoke 2.4 42% Tottenham 2.7 37% Southampton 2.9 34% Sunderland 3 33% Crystal Palace 31% Bournemouth 31% Liverpool 31% Man City 3.7 27% Newcastle 4.33 23% West Ham 4.5 22% Aston Villa 4.8 21% West Brom 5 20% Watford 5 20% Norwich 6 17% Swansea 7.5 13%

Arsenal enjoy a home clash with Swansea on Wednesday evening and it’s the Gunners who top the bookies defensive rankings for Gameweek 28 with a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Arsene Wenger’s troops have registered shutouts in 3 of their last 5 at The Emirates, and have the 2nd best home defensive record in the division (8 goals conceded). With the Swans only scoring 12 in 13 on their travels this term, expectations are rightfully high for Arsenal’s defensive assets to produce returns, but it should be noted that the Welsh side have found the net in each of their last 4 away games. Petr Cech is the top scoring keeper in the game (126 points) and gets the nod for our recommended XV, whilst Laurent Koscielny’s attacking prowess (3 goals this season) sees him join his teammate in our squad as the Gunners look to get their wilting title bid back on track.

Manchester United, the only team to have a better home record from a defensive standpoint than Arsenal (7 goals conceded), host Watford and are ranked as the 2nd likeliest team to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 28 by the bookmakers, with a 50% chance. With the Hornets blanking in 3 of their last 4 road trips, Guillermo Varela and Timothy Fosu-Mensah stand out as the cheap picks from an injury-ravaged Red Devil’s back line.

The top 5 this week is completed by Leicester (49%), Everton and Chelsea (both 43%). The Foxes have continued their impressive challenge for the title by tightening up at the back in recent months, evidenced by 5 home clean sheets on the trot. On Tuesday, they entertain a West Brom side who are the 2nd lowest away scorers in the league (9 goals in 13 games), and with the Baggies also blanking in 3 of their last 5 on the road, we keep faith with bonus point magnet (15 this season) Christian Fuchs. A trip to the worst attackers in the division, Aston Villa (10 goals at home), sees definite hope for Everton, who have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 on their travels of late and have conceded just 12 in 12 games away from Goodison. Joel Robles is our pick from Roberto Martinez’s contingent as our 2nd keeper. Chelsea have been extremely solid away from home under Guus Hiddink in the league, keeping clean sheets in 4 of their last 5, so a trip to East Anglia to tackle Norwich, who do manage to score a respectable average of 1.4 goals per game at home, could prove fruitful. Branislav Ivanovic offers serious potential going forward too, and makes our squad as a result.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet rankings tells us that defensive assets from West Brom (20% – away to Leicester), Watford (20% – away to Man United), Norwich (17% – home to Chelsea) and Swansea (13% – away to Arsenal) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Olivier Giroud 2.2 45% Harry Kane 2.25 44% Diego Costa 2.25 44% Romelu Lukaku 2.25 44% Jamie Vardy 2.3 43% Alexis Sanchez 2.4 42% Anthony Martial 2.62 38% Sergio Aguero 2.65 38% Marcus Rashford 2.8 36% Mame Biram Diouf 2.88 35% Daniel Sturridge 3 33% Jermaine Defoe 3 33% Riyad Mahrez 3.1 32% Marko Arnautovic 31% Shane Long 3.4 29% Oscar 3.5 29% Roberto Firmino 3.5 29% Benik Afobe 3.5 29% Dele Alli 3.55 28% Ross Barkley 3.6 28% Andy Carroll 3.75 27% Sadio Mane 3.9 26% Odion Ighalo 4 25% Connor Wickham 4 25% Wahbi Khazri 4 25% Aleksandar Mitrovic 4.2 24% Rudy Gestede 4.2 24% Saido Berahino 4.4 23% Dimitri Payet 4.5 22% Dieumerci Mbokani 4.5 22% Salomon Rondon 4.5 22% Troy Deeney 4.8 21% Yaya Toure 4.8 21% Alberto Paloschi 5 20% Steven Naismith 5 20% Matt Ritchie 5.25 19% Georginio Wijnaldum 5.5 18% Wilfried Zaha 5.75 17% Gylfi Sigurdsson 6 17% Carles Gil 7.5 13%

Olivier Giroud sits atop the bookmakers attacking ladder for this gameweek with a 45% chance of scoring in Arsenal’s aforementioned home encounter with Swansea. However, with the Frenchman not netting in his last 9 appearances in all competitions, and having been dropped from the starting lineup for Sunday’s loss to Manchester United, his position is far from secure, despite his healthy odds. With the Gunners deemed more likely to keep a clean sheet than Giroud to score, we hand Laurent Koscielny the captain’s armband for Gameweek 28, whilst his countryman backs him up as vice captain.

A 3-way tie for the remaining 2 striking slots in our squad sees Harry Kane, Diego Costa and Romelu Lukaku (all 44%) battling it out. With superior form, Kane and Costa (both 5.8 points per game lately) edge Lukaku (4 per game) and make our recommended XI. England striker Kane has struck 5 goals in his last 6 league games, and will look to continue his recent good form in London derbies when he faces West Ham on Wednesday, having notched twice in the reverse fixture against the Hammers earlier this season. Costa, meanwhile, has scored 4 in 6, also providing 3 assists in that stretch, and bagged the winner against this weekend’s opponents Norwich back in November.

Alexis Sanchez (42%) is the likeliest midfielder to score in this round of fixtures according to the bookies, but cannot make our squad as we already have our full complement of Arsenal players, so we turn to Riyad Mahrez (32%) and Marko Arnautovic (31%). Mahrez has put points on the board in 3 of his last 5 outings (1 goal, 3 assists) and will fancy his chances against a West Brom outfit with just 1 away clean sheet in their last 8. Arnautovic returned to form on Saturday, notching twice against Aston Villa to take home a mega 15 point haul for his owners. The Austrian now has 9 league goals to his name this season and enjoys another plum home tie against Newcastle, who have the joint 2nd worst away defence in the division (31 goals conceded).

A pair of mid-priced Brazilians make up our midfield quartet: Oscar and Roberto Firmino (both 29%). A trip to Norwich, who have the worst defence in the league on current form (16 conceded in their last 6) hands Oscar the opportunity to kickstart what has so far been a lacklustre Fantasy season, whilst international teammate Firmino, in much better form (5 goals and 3 assists in 6), faces Manchester City for the 2nd time in 3 days, with memories of his 15 point harvest against the Sky Blues back in November still fresh. Dele Alli (28%) occupies our final midfield position and makes our bench, with the young England starlet registering an assist against opponents West Ham in November’s 4-1 rout.

Other viable options for the 8 attacking slots include aforementioned duo Alexis Sanchez (42%) and Romelu Lukaku (44%), along with Leicester hotshot Jamie Vardy (43%), Ross Barkley (28%) and new boy on the block Marcus Rashford (36%).

The gameweek squad

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.

Set up your free weekly fantasy team here to compete for £50