Within a couple weeks at the start of the season, it looked like the NFC was the weaker conference; the AFC had all the power! Not so much anymore.

I toyed with the idea of titling this post, "Oh how the mighty have fallen" to point out that many powerhouse teams are no-longer in the upper half of the rankings. I'm going to save that for the rankings in two weeks to do a mid-season review of surprises and disappointments.

This week, let's focus on the rise of the NFC (or is it the fall of the AFC?)

It was just a few weeks ago that many pundits were asking, "are there any good teams left in the NFC?" And the consensus seemed to be "no." Apparently that's not the case anymore as all but 3 or 4 AFC teams have looked soft, and the NFC has looked to be the tougher conference again. Packers, Panthers, Falcons, Cardinals. Hell, even the Vikings have looked borderline great this year.

Patriots? Yeah they're good. Bengals? Looking good too. Jets? Fairly balanced. Broncos? Carried by their defense because Peyton can't throw more than 5 yards downfield and there's no run game to speak of. Aside from those four teams, what AFC team strikes fear into an opponents chest?

Notable Quotes

The Chargers drafted a running back in the first round this year. Despite that, Philip Rivers has dropped back to pass an average of 63.5 times the past two games. - ESPN

The Major League strategy apparently is being employed in San Diego. - Pro Football Talk

Blurb written using the same effort shown on the field Sunday. - Reddit

Division Averages

Division Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference AFC East 10.136 10.022 0.114 NFC West 15.080 14.435 0.645 NFC South 16.500 14.880 1.620 AFC North 14.170 15.565 -1.395 NFC East 15.830 16.620 -0.790 AFC West 17.727 16.783 0.944 NFC North 17.398 17.391 0.007 AFC South 25.159 26.304 -1.145

Stock Rising

Team Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference MIA 19.545 14.811 4.734 NO 22.545 17.917 4.628 OAK 21.864 17.364 4.500 KC 24.955 20.973 3.982 STL 17.409 14.508 2.901

Stock Falling

Team Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference SDG 17.864 22.542 -4.678 IND 15.046 19.462 -4.416 SF 23.409 26.788 -3.379 BUF 13.091 16.345 -3.254 HOU 25.636 28.591 -2.955

Subjective Average

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 Packers 2 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2.417 -0.053 Bengals 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 4 3 2.750 0.068 Panthers 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4.000 0.273 Broncos 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4.833 -0.015 Falcons 7 7 6 7 9 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 6.750 0.705 Cardinals 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 7 7 6 7 6 6.917 1.083 Jets 8 8 9 9 7 6 7 8 9 8 14 8 8.417 -1.599 Vikings 11 10 8 8 6 9 10 11 8 10 8 9 9.000 1.546 Steelers 10 16 17 10 12 10 8 9 10 9 9 10 10.833 -3.015 Seahawks 9 11 10 11 11 15 14 12 13 11 13 11 11.750 3.341 Giants 14 13 11 13 14 13 12 10 11 12 15 12 12.500 1.773 Rams 12 12 12 12 10 11 13 15 12 13 19 13 12.833 2.622 Dolphins 13 9 13 18 13 12 17 13 16 14 18 14 14.167 6.106 Raiders 16 14 14 17 15 14 15 14 18 17 10 16 15.000 5.727 Eagles 15 18 19 14 17 16 11 16 14 16 11 15 15.167 -3.894 Saints 17 15 16 15 18 17 19 18 17 20 12 18 16.833 5.531 Bills 19 20 21 21 21 20 16 17 15 15 17 19 18.417 -4.053 Colts 18 19 18 16 19 21 20 19 19 18 22 17 18.833 -6.287 Redskins 23 17 22 22 16 19 18 21 21 21 27 20 20.583 2.235 Cowboys 20 21 23 19 22 18 22 20 24 22 16 21 20.667 -2.394 Chargers 21 22 20 20 23 23 21 23 20 19 31 22 22.083 -4.992 Browns 24 25 27 25 20 22 23 26 22 23 21 24 23.500 -2.227 Bears 25 29 15 29 24 24 25 22 25 25 26 25 24.500 0.773 Chiefs 22 24 24 30 26 27 27 25 23 24 20 23 24.583 4.417 Buccaneers 28 28 26 23 28 26 26 24 28 26 28 27 26.500 0.046 49ers 27 27 25 26 25 28 24 27 26 27 32 26 26.667 -4.940 Jaguars 32 26 29 24 30 25 28 30 27 29 24 29 27.750 3.886 Ravens 26 31 32 27 27 30 29 28 30 28 23 28 28.250 0.023 Titans 30 23 31 31 31 31 30 31 31 30 25 32 29.667 0.515 Texans 29 32 28 32 29 29 32 29 29 32 29 30 30.000 -4.727 Lions 31 30 30 28 32 32 31 32 32 31 30 31 30.833 -2.469

Observations:

Packers dropped a little in their bye week, likely to make room for the Bengals.

Panthers a consensus 4th-seed.

Broncos are being held in the 5th position by their record because no self-respecting pundit is going to rank a 6-0 team anything lower than 5th. When the Broncos lose to the Packers on Sunday, I expect to see quite a collective exhale when the pundits are free to lower the Broncos.

Normally Pete Prisco at CBS gets the ire of fans for having wacky rankings, but he's spared the pitchforks this week as PFF has made its triumphant return. Amazing how pundits working for a stats-based website can seem so far off the mark.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 Broncos 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0.373 -0.343 Panthers 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 0.577 -0.040 Bengals 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 4 3 0.595 -0.238 Packers 2 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 0.640 0.159 Falcons 7 7 6 7 9 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 0.829 -0.404 Cardinals 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 7 7 6 7 6 0.954 -0.583 Lions 31 30 30 28 32 32 31 32 32 31 30 31 1.143 -1.043 Giants 14 13 11 13 14 13 12 10 11 12 15 12 1.384 -0.217 Vikings 11 10 8 8 6 9 10 11 8 10 8 9 1.414 -0.363 Texans 29 32 28 32 29 29 32 29 29 32 29 30 1.472 -0.828 Colts 18 19 18 16 19 21 20 19 19 18 22 17 1.572 -0.699 Buccaneers 28 28 26 23 28 26 26 24 28 26 28 27 1.607 -0.743 Seahawks 9 11 10 11 11 15 14 12 13 11 13 11 1.639 -0.382 Jets 8 8 9 9 7 6 7 8 9 8 14 8 1.891 0.778 49ers 27 27 25 26 25 28 24 27 26 27 32 26 1.929 -0.331 Browns 24 25 27 25 20 22 23 26 22 23 21 24 1.979 -1.099 Raiders 16 14 14 17 15 14 15 14 18 17 10 16 2.000 -0.378 Saints 17 15 16 15 18 17 19 18 17 20 12 18 2.034 -0.738 Cowboys 20 21 23 19 22 18 22 20 24 22 16 21 2.134 -1.031 Rams 12 12 12 12 10 11 13 15 12 13 19 13 2.192 -0.344 Bills 19 20 21 21 21 20 16 17 15 15 17 19 2.216 0.296 Ravens 26 31 32 27 27 30 29 28 30 28 23 28 2.314 0.356 Eagles 15 18 19 14 17 16 11 16 14 16 11 15 2.339 1.377 Jaguars 32 26 29 24 30 25 28 30 27 29 24 29 2.454 1.304 Chiefs 22 24 24 30 26 27 27 25 23 24 20 23 2.532 1.184 Dolphins 13 9 13 18 13 12 17 13 16 14 18 14 2.544 -1.389 Titans 30 23 31 31 31 31 30 31 31 30 25 32 2.625 1.098 Steelers 10 16 17 10 12 10 8 9 10 9 9 10 2.703 1.367 Redskins 23 17 22 22 16 19 18 21 21 21 27 20 2.812 0.296 Chargers 21 22 20 20 23 23 21 23 20 19 31 22 2.985 0.482 Bears 25 29 15 29 24 24 25 22 25 25 26 25 3.428 0.565

Observations:

Even with PFF throwing a wrench in everything, 19 of 32 teams saw their deviation fall this week, and 1 (Patriots) stayed the same.

Consensus is developing around the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Browns.

In general, the more consistently-ranked teams are in the NFC and the less consistently-ranked teams are in the AFC.

Objective Average

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.364 -0.182 Packers 3 2 2 8 5 5 2 2 2 2 3 3.273 0.182 Bengals 4 5 4 7 4 4 3 3 3 4 8 4.455 0.272 Cardinals 2 6 5 16 2 2 4 6 6 7 2 5.273 0.273 Panthers 7 10 8 2 6 8 5 5 5 6 10 6.546 2.818 Jets 5 9 9 6 1 3 8 8 8 15 4 6.909 -0.091 Broncos 10 3 3 13 7 11 16 4 4 3 11 7.727 -0.091 Steelers 9 7 7 9 9 6 6 10 10 8 6 7.909 -1.818 Seahawks 6 4 6 18 12 10 12 9 9 5 7 8.909 1.455 Eagles 8 8 10 4 13 7 14 12 11 10 5 9.273 -1.546 Falcons 17 17 11 1 8 9 9 7 7 11 12 9.909 -0.363 Giants 12 21 13 5 17 13 15 13 13 12 20 14.000 0.364 Bills 11 18 16 10 15 14 7 19 15 19 13 14.273 -2.455 Vikings 26 11 12 22 10 15 11 11 12 9 18 14.273 0.454 Dolphins 16 13 15 11 21 16 10 18 16 20 14 15.455 3.363 Rams 13 16 17 14 16 12 22 14 14 21 19 16.182 3.182 Chiefs 14 12 14 26 25 19 18 16 17 13 17 17.364 3.545 Saints 20 22 21 19 19 20 17 15 18 17 21 19.000 3.727 Cowboys 24 19 19 17 22 21 21 17 20 14 16 19.091 -3.455 Raiders 15 25 23 15 11 22 13 20 19 26 28 19.727 3.273 Colts 21 15 20 20 27 24 26 21 22 16 9 20.091 -2.545 Ravens 18 14 18 30 24 17 25 23 24 18 15 20.546 -1.819 Redskins 19 27 24 12 14 18 23 25 21 29 24 21.455 0.818 Chargers 25 20 22 24 18 23 27 26 23 23 22 23.000 -4.364 Browns 23 26 27 25 31 25 20 27 27 28 27 26.000 -2.364 Titans 22 30 30 28 20 26 19 32 32 32 23 26.727 0.273 49ers 32 28 28 21 32 27 29 22 26 22 29 26.909 -1.818 Texans 31 24 26 29 23 30 30 28 28 24 26 27.182 -1.182 Bears 29 29 29 23 26 28 31 24 25 27 31 27.455 0.636 Lions 30 23 25 27 30 29 32 29 29 25 25 27.636 -1.272 Buccaneers 28 31 32 31 29 32 24 30 31 30 32 30.000 -0.273 Jaguars 27 32 31 32 28 31 28 31 30 31 30 30.091 1.000

Observations:

Sharp delineation from the Falcons to the Giants

Wow, Football Outsiders and Beat Graphs really don't think highly of the Vikings.

Better watch out, here come the Jaguars!

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.771 0.385 Steelers 9 7 7 9 9 6 6 10 10 8 6 1.505 0.605 Bengals 4 5 4 7 4 4 3 3 3 4 8 1.559 0.016 Jaguars 27 32 31 32 28 31 28 31 30 31 30 1.621 0.457 Packers 3 2 2 8 5 5 2 2 2 2 3 1.863 -0.108 Saints 20 22 21 19 19 20 17 15 18 17 21 2.000 -0.863 Buccaneers 28 31 32 31 29 32 24 30 31 30 32 2.256 0.120 Panthers 7 10 8 2 6 8 5 5 5 6 10 2.271 -1.278 Chargers 25 20 22 24 18 23 27 26 23 23 22 2.450 0.627 Bears 29 29 29 23 26 28 31 24 25 27 31 2.571 0.296 Texans 31 24 26 29 23 30 30 28 28 24 26 2.622 -0.108 Lions 30 23 25 27 30 29 32 29 29 25 25 2.672 -0.381 Browns 23 26 27 25 31 25 20 27 27 28 27 2.697 -0.326 Cowboys 24 19 19 17 22 21 21 17 20 14 16 2.778 -2.704 Eagles 8 8 10 4 13 7 14 12 11 10 5 3.048 0.486 Rams 13 16 17 14 16 12 22 14 14 21 19 3.128 -1.268 Dolphins 16 13 15 11 21 16 10 18 16 20 14 3.258 -0.228 Jets 5 9 9 6 1 3 8 8 8 15 4 3.579 0.254 Bills 11 18 16 10 15 14 7 19 15 19 13 3.645 1.165 49ers 32 28 28 21 32 27 29 22 26 22 29 3.655 -1.344 Seahawks 6 4 6 18 12 10 12 9 9 5 7 3.848 -0.443 Cardinals 2 6 5 16 2 2 4 6 6 7 2 3.863 -0.168 Giants 12 21 13 5 17 13 15 13 13 12 20 4.134 0.410 Chiefs 14 12 14 26 25 19 18 16 17 13 17 4.354 -0.004 Falcons 17 17 11 1 8 9 9 7 7 11 12 4.358 0.216 Broncos 10 3 3 13 7 11 16 4 4 3 11 4.454 0.336 Ravens 18 14 18 30 24 17 25 23 24 18 15 4.717 -0.593 Titans 22 30 30 28 20 26 19 32 32 32 23 4.750 -0.036 Colts 21 15 20 20 27 24 26 21 22 16 9 4.944 -0.215 Redskins 19 27 24 12 14 18 23 25 21 29 24 5.034 -0.736 Vikings 26 11 12 22 10 15 11 11 12 9 18 5.224 0.770 Raiders 15 25 23 15 11 22 13 20 19 26 28 5.378 0.297

Observations:

The consistency is pretty evenly split among the conferences.

15 of 32 teams saw their deviation go up this week.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value Patriots 1.000 1.364 1.182 -0.091 Packers 2.417 3.273 2.845 0.064 Bengals 2.750 4.455 3.602 0.171 Panthers 4.000 6.546 5.273 1.545 Cardinals 6.917 5.273 6.095 0.678 Broncos 4.833 7.727 6.280 -0.053 Jets 8.417 6.909 7.663 -0.845 Falcons 6.750 9.909 8.330 0.170 Steelers 10.833 7.909 9.371 -2.416 Seahawks 11.750 8.909 10.330 2.397 Vikings 9.000 14.273 11.636 1.000 Eagles 15.167 9.273 12.220 -2.720 Giants 12.500 14.000 13.250 1.068 Rams 12.833 16.182 14.508 2.901 Dolphins 14.167 15.455 14.811 4.734 Bills 18.417 14.273 16.345 -3.254 Raiders 15.000 19.727 17.364 4.500 Saints 16.833 19.000 17.917 4.628 Colts 18.833 20.091 19.462 -4.416 Cowboys 20.667 19.091 19.879 -2.924 Chiefs 24.583 17.364 20.973 3.982 Redskins 20.583 21.455 21.019 1.526 Chargers 22.083 23.000 22.542 -4.678 Ravens 28.250 20.546 24.398 -0.898 Browns 23.500 26.000 24.750 -2.295 Bears 24.500 27.455 25.977 0.705 49ers 26.667 26.909 26.788 -3.379 Titans 29.667 26.727 28.197 0.394 Buccaneers 26.500 30.000 28.250 -0.114 Texans 30.000 27.182 28.591 -2.955 Jaguars 27.750 30.091 28.920 2.444 Lions 30.833 27.636 29.235 -1.871

Observations:

Patriots slipping a little?

6 of the bottom 10 teams in the AFC.

3 AFC South teams make up the bottom 5.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1.000 1.364 0.564 0.276 Packers 2.417 3.273 1.434 -0.101 Bengals 2.750 4.455 1.439 -0.126 Panthers 4.000 6.546 2.063 -1.538 Saints 16.833 19.000 2.290 -0.534 Jaguars 27.750 30.091 2.401 1.212 Texans 30.000 27.182 2.530 -0.020 Lions 30.833 27.636 2.578 -0.259 Cowboys 20.667 19.091 2.586 -2.080 Buccaneers 26.500 30.000 2.615 -0.137 Steelers 10.833 7.909 2.651 1.221 Browns 23.500 26.000 2.661 -0.611 Chargers 22.083 23.000 2.780 0.458 Cardinals 6.917 5.273 2.879 -0.409 49ers 26.667 26.909 2.889 -1.339 Jets 8.417 6.909 2.926 0.446 Dolphins 14.167 15.455 2.978 -0.809 Giants 12.500 14.000 3.120 0.253 Rams 12.833 16.182 3.160 -0.926 Seahawks 11.750 8.909 3.240 -0.863 Bears 24.500 27.455 3.387 0.442 Broncos 4.833 7.727 3.413 0.139 Falcons 6.750 9.909 3.454 0.224 Bills 18.417 14.273 3.634 1.077 Colts 18.833 20.091 3.657 -1.048 Eagles 15.167 9.273 3.996 1.372 Redskins 20.583 21.455 4.054 -0.405 Titans 29.667 26.727 4.067 0.175 Vikings 9.000 14.273 4.586 0.603 Raiders 15.000 19.727 4.637 0.511 Chiefs 24.583 17.364 5.042 -0.132 Ravens 28.250 20.546 5.315 -0.914

Observations:

Yes! The Chargers are the most consistently-ranked of the AFC West teams. Oh.

Ravens have actually seen their consensus improve overall.

Cowboys definitely settling in to their less-than-stellar ranking.

Colts too.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value Vikings 9.000 14.273 5.273 1.091 Raiders 15.000 19.727 4.727 2.454 Buccaneers 26.500 30.000 3.500 0.318 Rams 12.833 16.182 3.349 -0.560 Falcons 6.750 9.909 3.159 1.068 Bears 24.500 27.455 2.955 0.137 Broncos 4.833 7.727 2.894 0.076 Panthers 4.000 6.546 2.546 -2.545 Browns 23.500 26.000 2.500 0.136 Jaguars 27.750 30.091 2.341 2.887 Saints 16.833 19.000 2.167 1.803 Bengals 2.750 4.455 1.705 -0.204 Giants 12.500 14.000 1.500 1.409 Dolphins 14.167 15.455 1.288 2.743 Colts 18.833 20.091 1.258 -3.742 Chargers 22.083 23.000 0.917 -0.629 Redskins 20.583 21.455 0.871 1.417 Packers 2.417 3.273 0.856 -0.235 Patriots 1.000 1.364 0.364 0.182 49ers 26.667 26.909 0.242 -3.122 Jets 8.417 6.909 -1.508 -1.508 Cowboys 20.667 19.091 -1.576 1.060 Cardinals 6.917 5.273 -1.644 0.811 Texans 30.000 27.182 -2.818 -3.545 Seahawks 11.750 8.909 -2.841 1.886 Steelers 10.833 7.909 -2.924 -1.197 Titans 29.667 26.727 -2.939 0.243 Lions 30.833 27.636 -3.197 -1.197 Bills 18.417 14.273 -4.144 -1.599 Eagles 15.167 9.273 -5.894 -2.349 Chiefs 24.583 17.364 -7.220 0.871 Ravens 28.250 20.546 -7.705 1.840

Observations:

Yeah, maybe slow down a bit on the Vikings? And I know the Raiders looked phenomenal on Sunday, but they're still flawed.

Pundits still sleeping on the Eagles.

Chiefs may actually be better than even I want to give them credit.

Ravens are playing better than their 1-6 record indicates.

Sources