WHEN Pierre Karl Péladeau (pictured) raised a clenched fist in the air on March 9th and declared he wanted Quebec to be an independent country, Quebeckers took notice. Unfortunately for the ruling Parti Québécois (PQ), for whom the multimillionaire media baron is a star candidate in the April 7th election, it was the wrong kind of attention. Independence, or sovereignty as the PQ likes to call it, might be the party’s raison d’être but the majority of Quebeckers do not want another divisive referendum after failed votes in 1980 and 1995. The PQ was slightly ahead of the second-place Liberals when Mr Péladeau’s candidacy was unveiled. It has been sliding downward ever since.

Why Pauline Marois, who is trying to turn the PQ minority government of September 2012 into a majority, did not see this coming is a bit of a mystery. Until Mr Péladeau thrust independence to the forefront, Ms Marois assiduously avoided talk of a referendum, preferring to focus on a proposed secular charter that would prohibit civil servants from wearing overt religious symbols such as a hijab or turban. Opponents expected the separatist party would tap the latent xenophobia of rural and elderly Francophone voters in order to secure a majority, and then pick fights with the federal government to bolster separatist feeling before calling a referendum.

That option no longer looks possible. Polls indicate the federalist Parti Libéral, led by Philippe Couillard, is most likely to form the next Quebec government. A hint of panic has crept into the PQ’s attempts to redirect public attention away from talk of independence. The PQ has claimed that foreign students attending Quebec universities were registering to vote in order to steal the election. Electoral authorities investigated and found the claims to be groundless. Another scare story, told at a PQ event attended by Ms Marois, about the threat of Muslims commandeering an apartment swimming pool in Montreal and preventing elderly women from doing aquafit exercises, provoked accusations of xenophobia from Mr Couillard. After making a splash at his debut, Mr Péladeau has retreated to the background, although not before a second incident where Ms Marois was seen physically shoving him away from a microphone. She must wish she had done that sooner.