Analysis: Could Scheer Lose His Own Seat to the NDP ?

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer is running to be Prime Minister of Canada – but his first concern on October 21st might need to be his own Regina-Qu’Appelle seat.

As a surging NDP under leader Jagmeet Singh eats into both Conservative and Liberal support across Canada, efforts by NDP and Indigenous activists to push Scheer’s riding into the NDP column have taken on a new energy – leaving the Conservative leader vulnerable not only to an increasingly likely national loss on election day, but also to losing his own seat in the House of Commons.

In 2015, Scheer won the partially urban, partially rural riding in large part due to a surge in Liberal Party votes. Della Anaquod – a placeholder candidate – surged to over eighteen percent of the vote in the red wave that brought Liberals to a majority government.

With that wave crashing back in 2019, riding New Democrats and others on the centre-left are pressing hard to keep the vote behind the local New Democratic candidate, and deny the Tory leader his own seat in the House of Commons – a situation that would throw the already divided Conservative Party into chaos in a minority Parliament. Higher voter turnout and a coalescence of support around the New Democratic candidate, and surging support for the People’s Party among right wing voters over the issue of Quebec equalization, could lead to the Tory leader losing in his own seat.

Indigenous Activists on the Trail

Adding to the challenges for Scheer, Indigenous activists in the riding are also pressing to bring out the vote for the New Democratic Party in Scheer’s riding.

Indigenous groups across the Province were outraged when the Conservatives voted during the last Parliament against the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People. Two of Scheer’s closest allies, Saskatchewan MP Rosemarie Falk and Alberta MP Dane Lloyd shared a high-five after voting down the international rights document.

Here is a video from the #HOC of Conservative MPs @DaneLIoyd and @rosemarie_falk giving each other a high five after voting no to Bill C-262 – An Act to ensure that the laws of Canada are in harmony with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples pic.twitter.com/hryqzjgQtl — APTN National News (@APTNNews) June 4, 2018

The Conservative and Liberal dominated Senate also killed Indigenous Saskatchewan NDP MP Georgina Jolibois’ bill to recognize Orange Shirt Day – a day of remembrance and reconciliation for residential school survivors.

In response to a Conservative Party that has ranged from indifferent to openly hostile toward Indigenous interests, Indigenous activists have recognized that Scheer’s riding contains the most individual First Nations in Saskatchewan – thirteen in total – and have begun mobilizing those First Nations to vote. The surge could deny the Tories the riding – particularly if the Liberal vote from 2015 drifts back to the NDP.

Strategic Voting Could Deny Tories At Least Seven Sask Seats

Although Saskatchewan has recently been seen as a Conservative province, its major and moderate sized cities, First Nations, immigrant communities, organic farming areas, and the north have traditionally gone to the New Democratic Party. The Conservative Party won less than half the popular vote in 2015. Strategic voting could deny at least half of the ridings in the Province to the Conservatives. In addition to Scheer’s Regina Qu’apelle riding, those ridings are:

DESNETHÉ-MISSINIPPI-CHURCHILL RIVER– where incumbent NDP MP Georgina Jolibois has pulled ahead with a tight lead over her Conservative challenger, as Liberal and Green support has crashed across the Prairies.

REGINA-LEWVAN – where Jigar Patel of the NDP is believed to be in a tight race with Conservative Warren Steinley, who has lost significant support to People’s Party candidate Trevor Wowk over Andrew Scheer’s stance in favour of Quebec equalization.

REGINA-WASCANA – where incumbent Liberal Ralph Goodale is leading in a tough four-way fight with the NDP’s Hailey Clark, Conservative Michael Kram, and People’s Party candidate Mario Milanovski.

SASKATOON-GRASSWOOD – where star NDP candidate Erika Ritchie is challenging incumbent Conservative Kevin Waugh, with Mark Friesen of the People’s Party also expected to outperform

SASKATOON-UNIVERSITY – an interesting riding where NDP candidate Claire Card is taking her second run to seek to take the riding from the Conservatives, represented by first-time federal candidate Corey Tochor. Tochor is reported to have lost significant support to Guto Penteado of the People’s Party over Scheer’s stance on equalization, and to Jeff Willerton of the Christian Heritage Party over Scheer’s uncertain stance on abortion.

SASKATOON WEST – Incumbent NDP deputy leader Sheri Benson would be a major voice for Saskatchewan in a coalition government in a minority situation, but faces a stiff challenge from Isaac Hayes of the People’s Party and Brad Redekopp of the Conservatives.

Whether the popular vote will coalesce around the left candidate most likely to win each riding, or whether vote splitting and voter indifference will elect Scheer’s Conservatives in these ridings, will be decided over the next two weeks. Voters can check out when and how to vote on or before Election Day on Octber 21st on Elections Canada’s website.