In bad news for girls, sex ratio at birth plunges in southern states

NEW DELHI: Abysmal sex ratios have generally been associated with states like Haryana and Punjab. However, the data for 2007 to 2016 on sex ratio at birth, an indication of which way the sex ratio will move in the coming years, shows that southern states barring Kerala have witnessed some of the most dramatic drops.Data collated by the office of the Registrar General of India from the civil registration system (CRS) showed that in 2016, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan had the worst sex ratio at birth (SRB) of 806. Tamil Nadu was sixth from the bottom with its ratio falling from 935 in 2007 to 840, compared to the all-India figure of 877. In Karnataka, it fell from 1,004 to 896. In Telangana, it fell from 954 in 2013, when the state was formed, to 881. Since most of these states have achieved near 100% registration of births, the low ratios cannot be because large numbers of female births aren’t getting registered.In the case of Andhra, the drop to 806 in 2016 from 971 the previous year does seem abnormal. LN Prema Kumari, joint director of census operations in Andhra, said the sudden fall was due to the confusion created by the bifurcation of population between Andhra and Telangana. However, the bifurcation happened in 2013 and the data from then till 2015 does not show any sharp variations though the data for both states see-saws over the years. Also, in 2016 both states have witnessed a fall in the ratio.Tamil Nadu had dropped steadily from an SRB of 939 in 2006 to an all-time low of 818 in 2015. Compared to that, 840 in 2016, though lower than even Haryana’s 865, was an improvement. Since 2011, the state’s SRB has been lower than the all-India one. In Karnataka too, ever since 2011, when it achieved about 98% birth registration and an SRB of 983, the ratio has steadily declined.Sabu George, an activist who has worked for decades on the issue of falling sex ratios, explained that while declining sex ratios in Southern states were a worry and a reality, they seem to be too low in 2016. “I think there is a problem in the birth registration system in some districts in these states, which is pulling the overall ratio down,” he said.This analysis by TOI does not consider the smaller states and Union territories since the number of births in these are too small for any firm conclusions.Between 2007 and 2016, states which earlier had extremely low sex ratios at birth such as Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Maharashtra, have improved, with Delhi and Assam showing the most significant jump from 848 to 902 and from 834 to 888 respectively. But many others like West Bengal, Odisha, Jammu and Kashmir and Goa are slipping downwards.In Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the SRB fell from 924 to 837 and from 930 to 885 respectively. With just 60% birth registration, these numbers may not give an accurate picture. But anecdotally sex selection is leading to lower ratios in these states too. Madhya Pradesh too had just about 75% registration of births and the SRB was hovering between 904 and 909 after touching 938 in 2009. In Gujarat, with almost 100% registration, the ratio fell steadily from 905 in 2009 to 886 in 2014. Data for 2015 and 2016 was not available.Kerala, which always had amongst the highest SRBs, has continued to improve and in 2016 touched 954. Chhattisgarh was the only large state to record a higher ratio of 980.Nature provides that newborn males slightly outnumber newborn females because as they grow up, men are at higher risk of dying than women not only due to sex differentials in natural death rates, but also due to higher risk from external causes (accidents, injuries, violence, war casualties), explained the World Health Organisation, which tracks sex ratios across countries. Hence, the natural ratio is considered to be around 105 boys being born for every 100 girls, which translates to a sex ratio at birth of 952, close to the Kerala level.