That may seem to put the event into the "safely disregard" category. But, to remind you how much that reaction depends on the potential result, think about whether you'd be willing to pull the trigger in just one round of Russian Roulette. Your odds of a very bad day are about the same as those of an early end to a McCain first term.

To put the question into a more helpful context, let's look at everyday events that have about the same odds as soon swearing in President Palin:

-Kobe Bryant hitting two consecutive three-point attempts.

-On your next try, pulling a red M&M out of the bag.

-A rainy day in El Paso or San Diego. (A first-term President Palin would be twice as likely as a rainy day in Los Angeles.)

-That you will be delayed on two consecutive flights into Newark Airport.

-Escaping jail in Monopoly by rolling a double.

-That your birthday falls on a Wednesday.

-That, during a full inning of a Major League Baseball game, one of the teams hits a home run.

-That a hurricane hits Louisiana in any given year.

-That a flipped coin comes up heads three times in a row.

-That the next car you see will be black. A first term presidential funeral is more likely than the next car you see being blue, red, green or brown; it is only less likely than the next one being silver or white.

-That any three consecutive traffic lights you hit will all be red.

Speaking of red, if the country does go that way again, a first term Alaskan President is more probable than you are of catching the flu next winter or sharing a Zodiac sign with a stranger. It is also:

-Three times more likely than being dealt a 21 in Blackjack.

-Four times as likely as the next car you see being a convertible.

-Five times as likely as a woman having twins.

-Seven times more likely than meeting someone with green eyes.

-Eight times more likely than being waited on by a redhead.

Lastly, one unlikely-but-common analogy is particularly arresting. If the Republicans win, the odds of a first term President Palin would be about three times greater than the odds of a middle-aged man being left handed (the trait recedes in the population with age). Both candidates are.

Bob Rice is the author of Three Moves Ahead: What Chess Can Teach You About Business, and the former C.E.O. of a tech start-up. He now runs merchant bank Tangent Capital, which he founded in 2005.