1 / 5 Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.)

Alan Grayson has wasted no time. The freshman representative from Orlando has quickly become one of the GOP’s most despised Democrats and, not coincidentally, built a national base of progressive supporters that have his campaign coffers bursting at the seams. Grayson glories in the attack, whether it’s dubbing Republicans <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/alan-grayson-republicans_n_305661" target="_hplink">“knuckle-dragging Neanderthals” </a>or announcing from the House floor that their health care plan amounts to <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/alan-grayson-republicans_n_303996" target="_hplink">“die quickly”</a> -- a flamboyant charge that had the effect of putting Republicans on the defensive after a summer of angry anti-health care town hall gatherings. Grayson’s amendment to audit the Fed, <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fed-beaten-bill-to-audit_n_364546" target="_hplink">which passed the House</a> with the co-sponsorship of Ron Paul (R-Texas) and became law in a weakened form, could end up being one of the signature achievements of the 111th Congress, depending on how well it's carried out. He pushed the amendment through against the opposition of the White House, Treasury Department and Federal Reserve. Grayson shares the Orlando media market with freshman Suzanne Kosmas, a Democrat who has followed the Washington-consultant playbook and behaved as a centrist. For her trouble, she was rewarded by the local AFL-CIO by <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/the-news/reporting/ryan-grim-and-arthur-delaney" target="_hplink">being shunned </a>for her first vote against health care and by voters with distrust for her second vote in favor of it. Florida Blue Dog Allen Boyd also initially opposed health care reform and ultimately voted in favor of it; a GOP aide who has seen internal polls said that the flip-flop cost the pair dearly among Democrats and independents, many of whom say they can’t trust them. “I think all three of those guys are gonna lose, but ironically enough, Grayson has the best chance of winning,” said the aide, citing Grayson’s feverish backing among supporters and his national fundraising base. But Grayson’s outspokenness comes at a cost. “There is serious, serious vitriol among everyone who is not a fan of Alan Grayson,” said the GOP aide, saying that more than 50 percent of those surveyed have a negative impression of Grayson, a number that is difficult to reach and makes winning a majority of voters a function of inspiring high turnout among supporters. Grayson is also up against a hostile local media. The Orlando Sentinel appears to be among that 50-plus percent with a negative opinion of the congressman. And with Grayson and Kosmas sharing a media market, opponents of both can get two for the price of one when investing in attack ads. The NRCC has reserved a million dollars of air time in Orlando targeting both Grayson and Kosmas, a person familiar with the ad buy told HuffPost. The good news for Grayson is that his negatives can hardly go much higher, no matter how much money is dumped into the district. And there will be plenty more: a political operation with ties to Mitt Romney, who is flush with corporate cash, called 60 Plus, is out with ads hitting Grayson and Kosmas on health care. The Koch brothers, through Americans For Prosperity, have also spent at least $200,000 in the district and will likely come in with much more. Grayson's support from individual donors is buttressed by MoveOn.org and Democracy For America. Grayson won a recent DFA online survey and was chosen by the group's million-plus members as the House incumbent most worthy of support. Money and volunteer work will flow from the victory. Grayson recently released a poll showing him up by 13 among registered voters, but the composition of the electorate will likely be skewed Republican, so the race is much tighter than that. The NRCC recently released a poll showing Kosmas trailing, but didn’t release a Grayson poll. The Grayson campaign thinks that a poll was done, because several voters contacted the campaign to report that they’d been surveyed. That the poll wasn’t released buyoed the hopes of the Grayson camp that it showed bad news for their opponent Daniel Webster. Both Democratic and Republican sources say internal polling shows a very close race. Andy Sere, a spokesman for the NRCC, said that it would be a special treat to knock off Grayson. “We’re eager to defeat liberal Democrats and liberal Democrats pretending to be conservative Democrats alike, but when someone is seen as a progressive hero, it certainly makes victory especially sweet for conservatives,” he said. "Alan Grayson is going to win because he tells the truth and fights for his constituents. Voters in Central Florida know that Alan Grayson is working for them, not corporate special interests. Thanks to People Power, Alan Grayson owes nothing to anyone but the voters," said his spokesman, Sam Drzymalas. A wild card for Grayson, and one the GOP is watching closely, is a Tea Party challenger running as a third party. While Grayson may not be able to win GOP votes, he may be able to elevate the Tea Party candidate enough to drain votes away from Webster.