Conclusions

In an attempt to find games where the Devils’ goalies rose to a level of play far above the team’s, I dug into the numbers. I found 26 games where the difference in xGF% (a stand-in for team performance) and the goalie’s save percentage (goalie performance) was 50 points or greater.

Those games had the following distribution:

Kinkaid: 9 games | 3 wins | 33.3 win %

Blackwood: 9 games | 6 wins | 66.7 win %

Schneider: 8 games | 4 games | 50 win %

Having rewatched footage from all 26 of these games, I’ve come to a couple of conclusions:

Kinkaid’s 2018/19 season was full of extreme highs and lows. Some of his 9 games profiled here were the prototypical games that showed a goalie bailing out a team. Others were more complicated, and showed a goalie that failed to stay calm under pressure.

The Devils gave up a lot of shots. Some games, this was mitigated by a disproportionate share of high-danger shot attempts (giving up 40 shots, but somehow having a HDCF% of 50).

There are two distinct kinds of games captured by the criteria outlined in this article (SV% - xGF%) games where the goalie actually did ‘bail out’ an outmatched team games where the team’s play was so poor that nearly any level of goaltending at all would trigger the SV% - xGF% criteria



It is this last point that illustrates the potential for this project to extrapolate towards the upcoming 2019/20 season - Kinkaid tied for the most games on this list (9, tied with Blackwood), but 5 of those games turned out to be either poor performances, or games where his level of play was not actually higher than the team after review.

If we dig into both Blackwood (9 games) and Schneider (8 games) this is not the case. In fact, after reviewing the 17 games on this list that our 2019/20 tandem played I am more optimistic about their potential to split starts this season. Let’s take a look at each goalie and the games that made this list.

Blackwood (9 games)

After reviewing Blackwood’s 9 games, I can comfortably say that five or six of them fit our initial hypothesis - a hot goalie bailing out a poor team. The game on April 6 against the New York Rangers is borderline, as the criterion sits right at 50, and the Devils actually led the Rangers in high-danger shot share.

Blackwood’s strengths lay in his size, his athleticism, and his relative calm under pressure. He demonstrated good positioning and, when he misread the play or the opposition exploited poor coverage, the ability to make quick and decisive lateral movements to cover the net. As noted earlier, all four of Blackwood’s first four starts made this list of games, suggesting that the team didn’t make the start of his NHL career easy. From time to time you’ll hear that for some goaltending rookies, the NHL is actually easier than the AHL because of the predictability and steadfastness of your defense and team. I can’t really call the 2018/19 devils predictable or steadfast, and Blackwood mostly impresses in the games listed above and inspires a measure of confidence. In most Blackwood’s games within this 26-game sample, the team played relatively poorly. I believe in his ability to play in front of a much improved Devils roster.

For the 2019/20 season, I want to see more of the calm, mobile Blackwood that was able to steal so many games in the final stretch of 2018/19. From his first start to the team’s final game in Florida, Blackwood’s season was defined by traits and play that I believe are highly repeatable.

Schneider

Coming into this project, I was most curious about Cory Schneider. Schneider’s poor early play stands in direct contrast to his play late in the season. While he only has 8 games on this list compared to 9 each for Kinkaid and Blackwood, after review he has the most games that fit our initial hypothesis - a hot goalie bailing out a poor team. I’d count 6 of his 8 games above as individual efforts that countered comparatively poor team play. All 6 took place in February or later.

What impressed me most about Schneider’s play in these games was his improved lateral movement, and ability to prevent chances off of the rush. Of the 26 games listed in this project, Schneider led all goalies in games with a perfect high-danger save percentage with five. Schneider also played in the game with the largest SV% - xGF% difference of the season - March 9 against the New York Rangers. In that game, the Devils only posted a 17.76 xGF%, and only contributed 7% of the high-danger shot attempts. The statistics for March 9 are worse than the 8-3 pummeling they took against St. Louis, and the Devils only lost to the Rangers 4-2, and at one point actually led the Rangers 2-0.

While Schneider’s second-half resurgence had a few setbacks, his play in games where the Devils performed poorly as a whole (the games listed above) was by far the most encouraging among the Devils’ 2018/19 goalies. More of his games fit the description of a goaltender rising above the play of his team, and more of those games showcase the greatest statistical difference between goalie and team performance (using the metrics tracked for this project).

Barring a re-injury of Schneider’s groin or hips, I was greatly encouraged by exactly how much of Schneider’s late-season success was due not to strong team play, but individual performance in tough situations.

***

In this project, I tried to answer the task of evaluating goaltending in a season that saw poor team performance. To do this, I took all 82 games and sorted them to try and find games with the biggest difference in goaltender performance (save percentage, or SV%) and team performance (expected goals-for percentage, or xGF%). I found 26 games where the difference between these two metrics (SV% - xGF%) was 50 or greater. In theory, these would show the games in which the goalie had the most opportunity to mitigate poor team play.

After reviewing all 26 games, I found that this was not exactly the case. Only 14-16 of these games survived review, and could (subjectively) be called goaltending successes. Of those successful games, Schneider (5 or 6) was most often represented, followed closely by Blackwood (5). While the SV% - xGF% function did not exclusively return games that featured a goaltender bailing out a struggling team, the sample returned enough interesting games that did fit that description to help provide insight into the Devils’ late-season goaltending resurgence.

Looking at Blackwood and Schneider’s games specifically, I am encouraged about the Devils’ goaltending for the upcoming season. While full-season goaltending statistics suggest a year full of poor play, the latter half of the season was full of games where each goalie rose to a level of play far above the team’s. Both goalies demonstrated a far greater ability to quickly react to second and third chances. Both showed an improved ability to move across the crease while maintaining good coverage and positioning.

This project has led me to another conclusion - my only major concern about the Devils’ goaltending is a lack of an obvious callup in case of injury. Even though both Schneider and Blackwood are entering the season healthy, the season is long. While I think both goalies performed extremely well in the latter half of the season, the team has had to lean on a third goalie for stretches in the past two seasons.

Barring injury, I think the tape shows two goalies that were heavily challenged by poor team play for long stretches of the season. Both of their games seemed to improve throughout the season (Schneider especially), despite the team selling at the deadline. The stage is set to see if that play can continue, and if Blackwood can continue to grow at the game’s highest level.

All that is needed is for the season to begin.