by Aaron Schatz

We have a surprising new number one in this week's DVOA ratings: Denver. The DVOA system believes that Denver's dominating victory over New Orleans (54.1% DVOA) was slightly dominating-er than San Francisco's dominating victory over Arizona (49.5% DVOA), and along with the continued expansion of our strength of schedule adjustments -- now at 80 percent -- that puts the Broncos slightly ahead of the 49ers.

Actually, New England's victory over St. Louis was the dominating-est victory of the week (76.7% DVOA), but the Patriots had more ground to make up on the 49ers, so they're still behind Denver and San Francisco in third place.

Both Denver and San Francisco now rank in the top five for both offense and defense, with roughly average special teams. We all know the Broncos' defense has improved this year, but top five is a bit of a shock. However, this is where the strength of schedule issue really comes in. The Broncos have played the toughest set of opposing offenses so far, including five games against teams in the top 10 of offensive DVOA. And things are about to get much, much easier for the Broncos. Denver has the easiest remaining schedule in the league by a huge margin. Their average opponent remaining has a DVOA of -17.7%. Oakland is next at -8.8%. The average offense left on the Denver schedule has a DVOA of -11.3% (ranked 32nd) and the average defense left has a DVOA of 6.8% (ranked 30th, ahead of only Miami and Houston). Denver's road back to the playoffs is now so obvious that Von Miller could even see it without his ironic horn-rimmed glasses.

Although the AFC now has two teams in the top three, the big gap between the conferences didn't go anywhere. The bottom nine teams are still all AFC teams. The top nine teams in the league form a nice solid group that includes three AFC and six NFC teams. Then there is a gap, then Miami ranked 10th, then another gap, and then you have the beginning of (relative) mediocrity with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. Those are three teams going in very different directions. Pittsburgh is on its way up, especially because like Denver it has a very easy schedule remaining (30th in the NFL). Baltimore is headed down because of injuries, and Minnesota because it has the league's toughest remaining schedule (and, to make matters worse, opponents may have figured out whatever Christian Ponder was doing right earlier this year, but I believe we're leaving disection of that to Andy Benoit in Film Room on Thursday).

Eleven of the 12 toughest remaining schedules belong to NFC teams. That's what happens when one conference is so clearly better than the other. The AFC's gap between the top three and everyone else is so large that the top three most likely teams to win the Super Bowl according to FO playoff odds are all AFC teams: Houston, Denver, and New England, in that order. Those teams just have very little competition except for each other.

Someone asked me on Twitter why the FO stats still have Atlanta just ninth despite its 7-0 record. It's actually summarized pretty easily. First, close wins: four by a touchdown or less. Second, its schedule so far ranks 29th in the NFL. Third, the Falcons have recovered 75 percent of fumbles. (On the other hand, Denver has recovered just 24 percent of fumbles including none of its own offensive fumbles; Green Bay has recovered just 14 percent of fumbles.)

Some years, it seems like FO is not applying opponent adjustments strongly enough because the top teams all seem to be listed with very easy schedules, but that's not the case in 2012. In that top group of nine main Super Bowl contenders, only two teams have played schedules ranked lower than 20th: Chicago (28th) and Atlanta (29th).

Scroll down a bit for some fun analysis of FO's new snap count data page.

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All stats pages should now be updated (or, at least, will be in the next few minutes). FO Premium stats will be updated later this evening.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through eight weeks of 2012, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

Note that as of this week, we are no longer using the DAVE ratings which incorporate preseason forecasts.

Because it is early in the season, opponent strength is at only 80 percent; it will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 36.7% 5 36.7% 1 4-3 22.5% 2 -15.0% 5 -0.8% 20 2 SF 36.3% 1 36.1% 2 6-2 19.7% 5 -16.7% 4 -0.2% 18 3 NE 33.9% 6 34.2% 3 5-3 31.2% 1 0.5% 18 3.3% 11 4 NYG 32.0% 3 32.4% 4 6-2 22.0% 3 -5.2% 12 4.7% 7 5 CHI 28.7% 4 28.9% 5 6-1 -12.5% 25 -33.4% 1 7.8% 3 6 GB 28.7% 2 28.5% 6 5-3 20.0% 4 -7.6% 8 1.0% 15 7 HOU 25.1% 7 24.9% 7 6-1 10.7% 9 -24.1% 2 -9.6% 32 8 ATL 21.1% 9 21.0% 8 7-0 11.5% 7 -6.0% 10 3.6% 10 9 SEA 20.3% 8 20.3% 9 4-4 -1.4% 16 -19.5% 3 2.3% 14 10 MIA 12.3% 10 12.2% 10 4-3 -4.4% 20 -10.1% 7 6.6% 5 11 BAL 4.8% 12 4.3% 11 5-2 3.7% 12 7.4% 24 8.4% 1 12 PIT 3.7% 16 4.0% 12 4-3 8.9% 10 4.5% 20 -0.7% 19 13 MIN 3.6% 11 3.2% 13 5-3 -6.9% 21 -2.3% 15 8.2% 2 14 DAL 1.4% 18 1.6% 14 3-4 0.2% 15 -5.8% 11 -4.6% 27 15 DET -1.1% 15 -0.9% 15 3-4 13.8% 6 6.0% 23 -8.9% 31 16 TB -3.2% 20 -3.0% 16 3-4 1.3% 13 -2.6% 14 -7.1% 29 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 WAS -5.2% 13 -5.1% 17 3-5 7.6% 11 5.5% 22 -7.3% 30 18 NYJ -6.9% 17 -6.6% 18 3-5 -14.5% 27 -3.8% 13 3.8% 9 19 PHI -9.7% 22 -9.8% 19 3-4 -12.4% 24 -6.8% 9 -4.0% 25 20 ARI -10.4% 21 -10.8% 21 4-4 -22.0% 30 -12.4% 6 -0.8% 21 21 CAR -10.5% 23 -10.7% 20 1-6 -7.5% 22 -1.1% 16 -4.2% 26 22 NO -11.4% 19 -11.5% 22 2-5 11.2% 8 25.2% 32 2.6% 13 23 STL -11.6% 14 -11.8% 23 3-5 -10.2% 23 -0.6% 17 -2.0% 22 24 OAK -12.9% 27 -12.4% 24 3-4 -2.3% 18 4.9% 21 -5.7% 28 25 SD -13.3% 24 -13.4% 25 3-4 -13.9% 26 2.1% 19 2.7% 12 26 CIN -15.9% 25 -15.8% 26 3-4 -4.1% 19 16.7% 28 4.8% 6 27 BUF -16.7% 26 -16.6% 27 3-4 -2.0% 17 22.2% 30 7.6% 4 28 CLE -25.0% 29 -25.0% 28 2-6 -20.5% 29 8.5% 25 4.0% 8 29 IND -25.7% 28 -25.9% 29 4-3 0.3% 14 23.5% 31 -2.5% 23 30 JAC -35.6% 30 -35.6% 30 1-6 -22.7% 31 10.3% 26 -2.6% 24 31 TEN -35.7% 31 -35.9% 31 3-5 -17.7% 28 19.0% 29 0.9% 16 32 KC -41.7% 32 -41.4% 32 1-6 -29.1% 32 12.9% 27 0.3% 17

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA W-L NON-ADJ

TOT VOA ESTIM.

WINS RANK PAST

SCHED RANK

FUTURE

SCHED RANK VAR. RANK 1 DEN 36.7% 4-3 29.9% 8.0 1 6.6% 7 -17.7% 32 5.9% 9 2 SF 36.3% 6-2 35.0% 7.0 2 6.2% 8 6.3% 7 22.4% 30 3 NE 33.9% 5-3 37.5% 6.6 3 -2.4% 19 0.1% 14 10.9% 21 4 NYG 32.0% 6-2 31.1% 6.1 5 -1.8% 17 2.0% 11 14.6% 27 5 CHI 28.7% 6-1 32.9% 6.4 4 -7.8% 28 7.8% 4 12.8% 25 6 GB 28.7% 5-3 22.3% 5.9 6 3.3% 12 2.4% 10 13.5% 26 7 HOU 25.1% 6-1 24.8% 5.8 7 0.6% 15 -8.2% 28 15.7% 28 8 ATL 21.1% 7-0 29.7% 5.7 8 -8.1% 29 -2.0% 21 11.3% 22 9 SEA 20.3% 4-4 8.2% 5.7 9 8.3% 6 4.4% 8 3.9% 2 10 MIA 12.3% 4-3 12.5% 5.6 10 -5.7% 23 -0.6% 16 5.2% 5 11 BAL 4.8% 5-2 7.5% 4.3 12 -4.5% 21 0.4% 13 17.6% 29 12 PIT 3.7% 4-3 10.3% 4.0 14 -7.1% 26 -8.7% 30 9.5% 18 13 MIN 3.6% 5-3 11.1% 4.7 11 -10.1% 32 18.4% 1 7.0% 11 14 DAL 1.4% 3-4 -5.6% 4.1 13 14.9% 1 -6.4% 27 9.5% 19 15 DET -1.1% 3-4 -4.6% 3.8 15 4.6% 9 7.1% 6 4.4% 3 16 TB -3.2% 3-4 5.8% 3.4 18 -4.6% 22 1.1% 12 8.7% 14 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA W-L NON-ADJ

TOT VOA ESTIM.

WINS RANK PAST

SCHED RANK

FUTURE

SCHED RANK VAR. RANK 17 WAS -5.2% 3-5 0.1% 3.4 19 2.3% 13 -1.9% 20 8.8% 15 18 NYJ -6.9% 3-5 -8.1% 3.4 17 10.2% 4 -8.6% 29 22.7% 31 19 PHI -9.7% 3-4 -12.0% 3.2 20 3.6% 11 -1.9% 19 3.0% 1 20 ARI -10.4% 4-4 -15.1% 2.6 27 8.6% 5 14.4% 2 5.7% 8 21 CAR -10.5% 1-6 -15.0% 3.1 21 12.7% 3 -4.4% 24 9.2% 17 22 NO -11.4% 2-5 -8.5% 2.9 24 -1.2% 16 8.4% 3 8.3% 13 23 STL -11.6% 3-5 -15.0% 3.0 23 13.4% 2 7.4% 5 8.9% 16 24 OAK -12.9% 3-4 -8.3% 3.1 22 -2.4% 18 -8.8% 31 10.3% 20 25 SD -13.3% 3-4 -4.2% 2.7 25 -9.8% 30 -5.1% 25 7.2% 12 26 CIN -15.9% 3-4 -4.0% 2.7 26 -10.0% 31 0.1% 15 12.4% 24 27 BUF -16.7% 3-4 -16.0% 3.5 16 -7.1% 25 2.7% 9 23.0% 32 28 CLE -25.0% 2-6 -7.4% 2.0 28 -7.6% 27 -1.2% 18 6.5% 10 29 IND -25.7% 4-3 -20.8% 2.0 29 -6.0% 24 -3.8% 23 5.5% 7 30 JAC -35.6% 1-6 -37.3% 0.8 31 4.5% 10 -5.6% 26 5.2% 4 31 TEN -35.7% 3-5 -32.6% 1.0 30 1.2% 14 -1.1% 17 5.5% 6 32 KC -41.7% 1-6 -44.7% 0.6 32 -4.5% 20 -2.9% 22 12.0% 23

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So, this year, the NFL finally made snap count data publicly available, and we've been collecting it each week and displaying it for free on our new snap counts page. Here are some interesting tidbits from the data through the first eight weeks:

Many players have been in for 100 percent of their teams' snaps on offense, primarily offensive linemen and quarterbacks. The Patriots lead the league because of the super hurry-up they've been running, so Ryan Wendell is the league leader with 713 total snaps and 635 offensive snaps. Nate Solder has 686 total snaps and 634 offensive snaps.

Only nine players have been in on 100 percent of defensive snaps: Morgan Burnett of Green Bay leads those players with 564 defensive snaps. The others are Ryan Kerrigan of Washington; James Laurinaitis of St. Louis; Kam Chancellor of Seattle; Curtis Lofton of New Orleans; Kurt Coleman of Philadelphia; Eric Berry of Kansas City; and both San Diego safeties, Eric Weddle and Atari Bigby.

None of those players actually lead the league in defensive snaps. That title goes to T.J. Ward, who has been in on 589 of Cleveland's 601 defensive snaps. No defensive lineman has been in on 100 percent of snaps, but Cameron Jordan of New Orleans is the closest at 94 percent, followed by San Francisco's Ray McDonald and Justin Smith along with Jacksonville's Jeremy Mincey at 93 percent. Rookie Chandler Jones has been on 92 percent of defensive snaps for New England.

No player has been in for 100 percent of his team's special teams snaps. Andy Studebaker of Kansas City is closest; he's played in 100 percent of Kansas City's special teams snaps in every week except Week 1 and Week 8, and he's played in 93 percent of special teams snaps overall. Jason Trusnik of Miami has also played 93 percent of special teams snaps. Studebaker also played 26 snaps on defense in Week 1, but has only been in on seven snaps since. Trusnik has played 15 snaps on defense. Both players are linebackers.

Which teams do the most to eschew a running back committee? Pretty much the teams you expect. Four running backs have been in on more than 75 percent of offensive snaps: Darren McFadden (85 percent), Ray Rice (83 percent), LeSean McCoy (81 percent), and Chris Johnson (79 percent). Larry Fitzgerald leads all wide receivers with 98 percent of team snaps. Calvin Johnson and Steve Johnson are at 97 percent. Donnie Avery (!!!) is fifth at 94.1 percent.

Tight end Heath Miller is the only "skill player" in the league, other than quarterbacks, who has been in on 100 percent of his team's offensive snaps.

The players with the most snaps without being in for special teams at least once are Tom Brady, Brandon Lloyd, and Jeff Saturday.

This year's biggest double threat (well, triple threat, including special teams) is San Francisco defensive end/fullback Will Tukuafu. In fact, you can't see all of his snaps in one place on the chart because San Francisco changed his number at some point from 92 to 48. (I'll get that fixed up by next week.) Tukuafu has been in for 56 snaps on offense, 20 on defense, and 102 on special teams. The only other player listed with at least five snaps on both offense and defense is Charles Tillman. Does anyone know what Tillman has been doing on six offensive snaps? I'm curious. Patrick Peterson, Antonio Cromartie, and Indianapolis linebacker Matt Harvey have been in for four offensive snaps apiece despite generally being defensive players.

Sometime in the next few days, I'll do some XP commentary looking at things like pass targets or tackles per snap.

(Note: I am not sure if fake field goals and punts count as offense/defense snaps or special teams snaps. I have an e-mail in to the league asking for clarification.)