Cruz’s evangelical problem

STRUGGLING FOR CONVERTS: TED CRUZ rode evangelical support to some of his biggest victories in the 2016 campaign. But as POLITICO’s Shane Goldmacher reports, that’s now part of Cruz’s dilemma: When Cruz announced he was running for president, in March 2015, he began his speech to thousands of cheering Christian evangelical students, "God bless Liberty University.”

One year later to the day, Cruz stood in midtown Manhattan under crystal chandeliers and addressed a suit-clad crowd much the same way, "God bless the great state of New York.” Cruz’s unapologetic brand of Christian conservatism hasn’t changed much in the past 12 months, but the political terrain of the 2016 campaign has. After meticulously building an evangelical base that delivered Cruz an opening victory in Iowa and helped him amass the second-most delegates to Donald Trump through March, the Texas senator now faces a gauntlet of some of the least religious states in the country. As few as four of the remaining states are projected to have a majority-evangelical GOP electorate.


Much has been made over the past few days of Trump's challenges in securing enough delegates to win the nomination. But unless Cruz can quickly make inroads with non-evangelical voters who so far have mostly rejected him, he has little chance of stopping Trump. So far, the candidate who disparaged his rival's "New York values" has shown no sign of tweaking his message to appeal to a less religious coastal electorate, gambling instead that antipathy toward Trump will be enough to draw those voters into his camp.

“You can safely say that his best days are behind him when it comes to the solid evangelical states,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll. “He’s going to have to appeal to people who are not necessarily terribly religious at this point.” Cruz’s first test comes in Wisconsin, where he’s emerged as the leading anti-Trump candidate.

Read more at: http://politi.co/1RCLvdR

Happy Friday. Beware April Fools', and you know, fools in general. Here’s your 2016 Blast, where we abide Shaq’s wisdom: Don’t fake the funk on a nasty dunk. http://bit.ly/1UZ6IED Henry C. Jackson (@henrycjjackson) is here to guide you through today’s campaign news. Send your tips, complaints and hottest hot takes to: [email protected].

TRAIL MIX: In today’s campaign news, HILLARY CLINTON’s former aides take an all “four” one legal strategy. BERNIE SANDERS and Clinton get into a tiff about “lying.” Does New York Mayor de Blasio have heart Bern? DONALD TRUMP (still) has a delegate problem. TED CRUZ plays a prank, JOHN KASICH calls for an ad to be dropped, and Rush Limbaugh is unimpressed.

THE DAILY CLINTON

ALL FOUR ONE: POLITICO’s Rachael Bade reports four former, top HILLARY CLINTON aides at the State Department are getting legal advice from the same woman, Beth Wilkinson. “The united front suggests they plan to tell investigators the same story — although legal experts say the joint strategy presents its own risks, should the interests of the four aides begin to diverge as the probe moves ahead.” http://politi.co/1MHFyPL

FUELING DEBATE: The New York Times reports on an escalating back-and-forth between HILLARY CLINTON and BERNIE SANDERS on support from the fossil fuel industry. Sanders says Clinton is beholden to big oil and reiterated the point during interviews today. Clinton expressed exasperation that Sanders’ campaign was “lying” about her record yesterday in New York: http://nyti.ms/1oqhx4j Meanwhile, POLITICO’s Nolan D. McCaskill reports Sanders’ campaign is demanding an apology for the “lying” remark: http://politi.co/1PK7FIU And here’s more on Clinton’s initial remarks: http://politi.co/1q72vSM

PANDER BEAR IS ORANGE: The Wall Street Journal reports HILLARY CLINTON was asked who she was rooting for or picking in the Final Four this weekend. Her response? “The home team” aka, 10th-seeded Syracuse, a school that, yes, is in Syracuse, New York where she campaigned today. http://on.wsj.com/1pRCBBU

HARD TO ARGUE: This The Federalist headline sort of says it all: “In 'Batman vs. Superman' HILLARY CLINTON is not Wonder Woman.” The Blast rules: Technically, yes, this is true. http://bit.ly/1N19GAt

THE ACTUAL WORST: Here’s a studiously unfunny “HILLARY CLINTON arrested” April Fools' gag. Because April Fools'! http://bit.ly/1VYUKdv

THE PROGRESSIVE RESISTANCE

SOME HEART BERN: POLITICO’s Annie Karni talks to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, a HILLARY CLINTON endorser who also clearly has some love for BERNIE SANDERS. “His support may not be as devout as the Clinton campaign is hoping for. He doesn’t hide his admiration for Sanders, whose personal beliefs seem to mirror de Blasio's more than the candidate he ultimately endorsed.” http://politi.co/1VgKhtl

EMPIRE BERNING?: BERNIE SANDERS made a bold proclamation this morning — declaring he would win New York state. It is his home state, as POLITICO’s Nick Gass reports, but he’s trailed HILLARY CLINTON there for months. http://politi.co/25AAgMq

AS MANY MILLIONS AS MILO HAS INTERNS: BERNIE SANDERS took in a cool $44 million in March, POLITICO’s Nick Gass reports: http://politi.co/1UYv4yc

TRUMP ON THE STUMP

COUNTING PROBLEMS: POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Ben Schreckinger report on a big, looming problem for DONALD TRUMP — his delegates may well bolt on the second ballot at the Republican National Convention if he doesn’t get to 1,237 before Cleveland. http://politi.co/1Vf8394

GREASED HANDS?: POLITICO’s Nick Gass reports a watchdog group is accusing DONALD TRUMP of illegally promising a position to BEN CARSON in his hypothetical administration: http://politi.co/1VY1FUo Carson has denied he’d seek a job in a Trump White House: http://politi.co/1ToJJBu

TED’S EXCELLENT ADVENTURE

MOUNTAIN MAN: The Denver Post reports TED CRUZ’s well organized campaign makes him the favorite to take the bulk of Colorado’s unapportioned delegates: http://dpo.st/1MHH3O0

YOU KNOW THE RULES AND SO DO I: TED CRUZ waded into the April Fool’s thing and — Blast nods — not too bad: He Rick Rolled DONALD TRUMP supporters, releasing a video that purportedly was Trump accepting a debate but was actually the totally obnoxious Rick Astley song instead, San Diego Union-Tribune reports: http://bit.ly/1PL1fcl

KASICH’S CASE

LAY ‘LYIN’ DOWN: POLITICO’s Nick Gass reports JOHN KASICH doesn’t like the tone of a new ad run by a Super PAC backing him, which calls TED CRUZ ‘Lyin’ Ted,” just as DONALD TRUMP has. Kasich’s calling for the ad to be removed from the airwaves. http://politi.co/1M74Kzt

LIKE DISHWALLA, OR SOMETHING: Los Angeles Times looks at JOHN KASICH’s attempt to avoid becoming a “one hit wonder” in campaign 2016, after winning Ohio, his home state, and naught else so far. “He may have survived longer than 14 other Republican candidates, but in a year where the electorate has cried out with anger, his prescription of warmth and moderation hasn’t caught on.” http://lat.ms/1RtCfMh

SURE: It’s Friday. So please enjoy some of our “favorite” one-hit wonders, all vaguely applicable to Campaign, 2016. The aforementioned Dishwalla http://bit.ly/1wy2mXs, Nada Surf’s lone hit, “Popular.” http://bit.ly/1qawCc3. And of course Blu Cantrell’s “Hit ‘Em Up”: http://bit.ly/1pEpSgm. This may be the best of the bunch, though: http://bit.ly/1gD53xE

SURVEYING THE 2016 LANDSCAPE

ELRUSHBO DISTILLS: Talk radio host Rush Limbaugh’s summation of the polling numbers of all participants in Campaign 2016? “Everybody sucks.” POLITICO’s Nolan D. McCaskill has more: http://politi.co/1RuqbKP

THE DAILY NUMBER

1. That’s the number of states, thus far, where TED CRUZ has topped 30 percent with non-evangelicals in exit polls. A sign of the challenge ahead of him in Wisconsin and beyond: http://politi.co/1RCLvdR

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