FARGO — Population growth in North Dakota’s two leading urban centers sputtered — and declined in two other metro areas — while two counties in the heart of the Oil Patch tallied significant gains, according to 2019 population estimates.

Cass County, home to Fargo and West Fargo, gained an average of 3,571 residents per year from 2010 to 2018 — but saw the trend of rapid growth slow dramatically from 2018 to 2019, with an increase of 407 residents, according to Census Bureau estimates.

The story was similar in Burleigh County, which includes Bismarck. The county grew by an average of 1,590 residents from 2010 to 2018, then gained 353 from 2018 to 2019.

Kevin Iverson, the manager of the North Dakota Census Office, was surprised by the lackluster population gains in the state’s fastest-growing urban centers.

“I actually thought the growth would be a little more significant,” he said.

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Three counties in western North Dakota topped the state in population gains, including two counties in the core of the Oil Patch, Williams and McKenzie.

Williams, which includes Williston, gained an estimated 2,239, or 6.3%, from 2018 to 2019, while McKenzie, home to Watford City, grew by 1,392, or 10.2% during the yearlong period ending July 1, 2019.

Stark County, which includes Dickinson, gained an estimated 492 people, or 1.6%, an example of more modest growth outside the most productive petroleum counties in western North Dakota.

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Among urban counties, Grand Forks stood out as the county in the state with the greatest population loss between 2018 and 2019, according to the estimates.

Grand Forks County, which added an average of 288 residents from 2010 to 2018, lost an estimated 1,319, or 1.9%. The steep loss there appears to stem from a combination of factors, including a reduction in about 500 residents of group quarters, Iverson said.

“Much of that is UND in the dorms,” he said, referring to residential students at the University of North Dakota. The loss of residential students has been masked by the increase in students enrolled in online classes, he said.

“It’s not just UND, but other locations as well,” Iverson said. There also was a decline of about 400 people from residential housing, such as single-family homes, a population closely tied to employment.

“That also shows a similar decline,” Iverson said. “They lost about 500 stable employment positions.”

The losses in Grand Forks County could be at least partly explained by the growth in Fargo-Moorhead, 80 miles away, he said.

“As the Fargo region has grown, its reach becomes greater and greater,” drawing businesses and people, he said. “I think Grand Forks is in that range.”

Barnes County, which includes Valley City, located 61 miles east of Fargo, also has struggled because of its proximity, he said. Many Valley City residents work in Fargo and over time some get tired of the commute and move, Iverson said.

“It shows to me that pull,” he said.

The slow population growth in Cass County last year was evident from other indicators tracked by Jim Gilmour, director of strategic planning for the city of Fargo.

“It’s not that surprising given some of the data that I’ve seen,” he said, such as a decline in construction, including apartments, and increasing apartment vacancy rates, which suggest slower household growth.

“We saw building permits down last year,” Gilmour said. Enrollment is down at North Dakota State University and Minnesota State University Moorhead, and firms in Fargo that do business in the Oil Patch probably are experiencing a slowdown, he said.

Job creation in Fargo “hasn’t been growing as much as it has in past years,” Gilmour said. “Right after the recession we saw a lot of people migrate to Fargo because there were jobs here.”

North Dakota’s other major urban center, Ward County, which encompasses Minot, also lost population in the latest estimates. The county, which gained an average of 663 residents annually from 2010 to 2018, lost 103 residents, or negative 0.15%.

The economic “ripple effects” from the Oil Patch — which now is likely contracting from the collapse in oil prices due to the coronavirus crisis — apparently were not strong enough to benefit Minot, Iverson said. Outside the Oil Patch, most rural counties continue to lose population, according to the latest estimates.

“For the rural counties, it’s a long, slow decline,” Iverson said.