The Houston Astros actually have a prospect who weighs less than the parent club’s perennial All-Star second baseman, Jose Altuve. Right-handed hurler Shawn Dubin, a 2018 draft pick, challenges the scale’s calibration at 154 pounds. Altuve? He weighs in at 160 pounds on his 5’5″ frame.

But, Dubin, the Astros’ #23-ranked prospect, has eight inches on Altuve, towering above the Venezuelan native at a rail-thin 6’1″, or 1.126 Altuves.

None of this may ultimately matter, as the 2017 World Champion’s six All-Star games, a league MVP, and four seasons as a league hit leader has proven. A boatload of natural talent helps, of course, and time will tell if Dubin has gifts on the mound that will eventually render his waist circumference irrelevant.

The Skinny on the New Yorker

Shawn Anthony Dubin was born September 6, 1995, in Allegany, in the southwest corner of New York state. He went to Allegany-Limestone High School (playing mostly shortstop for the Gators), before beginning a trifecta of colleges attended, culminating in Kentucky’s Georgetown College.

An outdoors enthusiast who counts hunting, fishing, and snowboarding as favorite pastimes, Dubin also walked the halls of Buffalo’s Erie Community College and the University of Buffalo (where he dove into international studies) in both 2016 and 2017.

In June 2018, the Astros selected Dubin in the 13th round, 402nd overall, and signed him for a $1,000 bonus. In 2018, just before that draft, Dubin scored a 9-1 record, including four complete games and two shutouts in 14 starts for tiny Georgetown College, earning Mid-South Conference Pitcher of the Year. Dubin became GC’s first draft pick in 21 years.

In three years, Dubin’s combined college numbers were impressive, as he started 38-of-42 games, focusing on the starting rotation exclusively in 2017 (at UB) and 2018 (Georgetown College).

In 222 innings, Dubin pitched to a combined 16-10 record, 4.06 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP, while yielding 211 hits. His 2.61 K/BB ratio reflected 245 strikeouts against 94 walks. Keeping the ball in the yard, he gave up only eight home runs, for a minuscule 0.32 HR/9.

Reporting directly after signing to Houston’s short season Class A Tri-City ValleyCats of the New York-Penn League, he went 2-1 with a 4.60 ERA, whiffing 31 in 29.1 innings.

Dubin racked up some impressive numbers in his first full pro season in 2019, posting a 3.58 ERA with 151 strikeouts in 110.2 innings (mostly with Houston’s Advanced-A Fayetteville Woodpeckers). Continuing to gain experience in the rotation, he started 19-of-25 games and logged a 1.12 WHIP, with another microscopic HR/9 number: 0.24. His 12.28 K/9 number was the highest in his career, including college.

He didn’t allow an earned run in his final four starts of the season for the ‘Peckers, spanning 24 innings, earning himself late August Pitcher of the Week in the Carolina League.

Sounding more than a little surprised himself at his early pro success, Dubin admitted to the Olean Times Herald in April 2019, that “It was a dream, but not to this extent. I kind of surprised myself a little bit. I always knew I was capable of getting to this point.

“Having the success that I’m having right now, it’s crazy. It’s inspiring to a point. You see these last two outings I’ve been throwing well, and it’s only the beginning of the season [with Houston’s Class A Quad Cities River Bandits].

Daring to dream, Dubin wondered, “Who’s to say midseason I’m not even better?”

The Scouts Weigh In

Shawn Dubin scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40

Scouts contend Dubin has added approximately three mph on his fastball velocity since college. While he now is consistently at 92-95 mph, it’s said he can reach 97 at times.

His work-in-progress slider is showing the potential of becoming a plus pitch, even to the point of ultimately supplanting his fastball as his best offering. His changeup and command are both still areas of improvement for the 24-year-old.

Pointing to his low HR/9 rates (and high strikeout rates), he has given recent low-minors hitters conniption fits, generating more than his share of swings and misses, as well as coaxing weak ground-ball outs.

Because of Dubin’s spindly build, the jury will still be out on his future as a starter going forward. It remains to be seen if his body type can add any significant weight to add strength and durability.

Despite the early success he’s enjoyed working out of the rotation as he’s progressed, it’s likely Dubin projects as more of a bullpen piece than a starter.

“…Throwing the Hell Out of the Ball”

Lacking sturdy physicality, Dubin may end up, ultimately, being better suited for shorter stints as a reliever, allowing him to crank up his velocity a tad, relying even more heavily on his fastball.

But, to that end, and showing initiative and an enviable work ethic, Dubin worked on his body during the 2018/2019 offseason: “I really got after it with my lower half, trying to get my mechanics down,” he revealed.

“I worked with a pitching coach who actually works with [Los Angeles Dodgers’] Walker Buehler, so he had some good insight for me, and then I just came into spring training throwing the hell out of the ball.

“This is the best my velocity has ever been. I’m consistently sitting like 93-96 (mph), so it’s working. I’m throwing fastballs by hitters. Just the sheer power aspect, focusing on that in the offseason, it’s made a big difference,” he concluded.

2020 Foresight

Having seemingly checked all his boxes at High-A Fayetteville, Double-A Corpus Christi Hooks would appear to be his 2020 starting point. Dubin’s optimistic:

“Hopefully at some point, maybe get a call-up [to the Hooks],” he told the Times Herald, sans crystal ball. “We’ll see. But, just continue to do what I’m doing. This year, I feel like I’ve been more locked in on the mound, making every pitch count and just having constant focus on the batter.

“It’s easy to lose focus with everything going on. (It’s) just staying true to yourself and trusting your pitches.”

Dubin may actually get a non-roster invitation to Spring Training to rub pitching elbows with the Astros’ veteran mound mates.

He’ll just have to weight and see.