There was plenty of room at the beach on this January day. Credit:Leigh Henningham In Melbourne the temperature is expected to climb to 34 on Wednesday and 37 on Thursday, before lower temperatures on Friday and over the weekend. The hottest day in Melbourne so far this summer was December 28, when the mercury peaked at 38.2. And this week, Melbourne recorded its wettest day in more than two years. In comparison, last summer Melbourne recorded two days of at least 40 degrees, including a day of 41.2 degrees in December 2015. Melbourne's current summer is very different to that of 2013-14. Three years ago, the city experienced seven summer days over 40 degrees, including a four-day stretch in January, as tennis fans sweltered during the Australian Open.

While Melbourne hasn't had a 40-degree scorcher this summer, it hasn't been cool either. Senior forecaster at the weather bureau Richard Carlyon said the long-term average temperature in Melbourne for both January and February was 26 degrees. In February 2017 thus far, the Melbourne daytime maximum temperature was averaging 26, while the average for January this year was 26.5 degrees, he said. But given that February was already a week old and Melbourne hadn't recorded a 40-degree day and nor was one forecast, the chances of a 40-degree day for Melbourne this summer were reducing, he said. "It's not impossible, but it would be a very low chance. You can get them out till late February, but they are quite rare," he said. Mr Carlyon said records showed that in Melbourne "the extreme heat, the days above 40, are much more common in January than February".

He also said: "In February it really drops away, particularly the second half of the month...[In] the first half [of February] there's a lot more 40-degree days compared to the second half." Sometimes, there was a fine line between a 40-degree day and a peak in the high 30s, he said. "We have had higher levels of humidity and we've had more cloud bands streaming across from the west this summer. And that cloud has taken just the edge off the temperature," he said. "I think we've just had a bit more cloud cover ahead of cool changes and the humidity has been a little bit higher as well. But I think it's a fine line sometimes, sometimes you get them, sometimes you don't," he said.

Weatherzone meteorologist Graeme Brittain said: "Nine out of the last 10 years have recorded a 40-degree day. The summer of 2015 was the only summer in the last 10 years that did not record a 40-degree or more day." Mr Brittain said temperatures would heat up this week but, while Melbourne could get a high of 36 or 37 on Thursday with northerly winds, "the 40-degree mark doesn't look like it's going to be reached on Thursday". Loading "[For] the next two weeks the models are not strongly indicating for temperatures to reach or breach the 40 mark." Weatherzone is owned by Fairfax Media, publisher of this website.