For 12 consecutive years, Vancouver Island has stood as an offshore NDP fortress. Party strategists colour it orange in the backroom projections, and it ends up mostly the same shade after the votes are counted.

It was the first region to forgive the NDP following the historic beating it got in 2001 after two terms in office. The B.C. Liberals swept the Island, along with nearly every other seat in the province then, but the NDP grabbed back nine of the 13 Island seats in 2005.

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Another riding was created in 2009, and the NDP bumped its take up by one then, and added another in 2013. There are regions that trend heavily for either the Liberals or NDP, such as the Fraser Valley, the Kootenays or the southern suburbs of Vancouver. But the Island has the biggest concentration of seats (14) that usually go markedly in one direction — NDP.

This time around, a few things make you wonder. The obvious one is the Green Party’s Andrew Weaver, who broke through in Oak Bay-Gordon Head with an easy victory and then took over as party leader.

His win got all the attention, but the party had other grounds for optimism. It almost doubled the Island ballot count from the 2009 showing, even though it couldn’t find candidates for three races. Greens were part of the three-way battle in Saanich North and the Islands, where only a few hundred votes separated the three candidates. And Greens came second in both Victoria ridings.

In this year’s race, the party recruited a full Island slate, and it’s a much stronger team with more money to spend. Greens still trail far behind in fundraising, but with all the controversy over how the major parties bring in donations, that’s not necessarily a negative.

And Weaver’s campaign has been just as critical of the NDP as of the Liberals. He went out of his way to take on NDP Leader John Horgan during the TV debate and has been portraying the NDP as failing to present a vision over 16 years in opposition.

But winning subsequent seats after a breakthrough can be just as hard as making the breakthrough. Federal Green Leader Elizabeth May in 2015 was in just the position Weaver is in now and didn’t make any headway.

The Liberals were irked by holding just two Island seats last time and have been planning a comeback since then.

“For too long the NDP have held the majority of seats on Vancouver Island,” leader Christy Clark said in the introduction to a special Island platform, tailored to break the NDP grip. It’s being presented by a good field of candidates with ample backing.

The NDP is counting on its historic hold and the fact it has 10 veteran incumbents defending its turf. The fact Horgan is Island-born and raised doesn’t hurt either.

The 2013 vote produced 11 NDP MLAs, two Liberals and one Green. Island-wide, the NDP had a 30 per cent edge over the Liberals in the popular vote and was far ahead of the Greens. Its vote count dropped slightly from the 2009 count as the Greens doubled their tally.

But the inconclusive argument about vote-splitting runs continuously, and with 14 ridings there are lots of other dynamics in play.

It’s unusual for a governing party to run as an underdog in a region, but the Liberals join the Greens in that position. It makes for a very fluid situation.

As one candidate discussing the region’s economy observed during the campaign: “We’re surrounded by water.”

Which means, like anyone who lives on an island, you have to keep an eye on the tides.