How can we tell these are tough times for the Ontario Liberals?

First, public opinion polling suggests the opposition Progressive Conservatives have a substantial lead when people are asked who they’d vote for if an election were held today. Second, the recent byelection in Scarborough-Rouge River is another sign: the PCs swiped a seat which had been reliably Liberal for three decades.

These are both useful indicators, but hardly comprehensive. Fortunately, we now have something much more substantial with which to judge both the government and its two main opponents.

The Innovative Research Group, which has offered strategic advice to governments, media and other organizations based on deep-dive polling for a couple of decades now, recently conducted a biannual in-depth survey. Though the results aren't public I have obtained a copy, and it’s filled with the kind of information you don’t get just by asking people where they’re currently parking their voting intentions. (The fine print: the poll talked to 600 Ontarians, via both landlines and mobile phones, from September 15-24. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)

Stay up to date! Get Current Affairs & Documentaries email updates in your inbox every morning.

One of the most important findings: when you remove undecided voters from the mix — and that’s a significant 17 per cent of the electorate right now — the race is actually very close. Those who are firmly or slightly inclined towards one party still favour the PCs, but only by four points over the Liberals, 30 to 26 per cent. The New Democrats are well back at just 16 per cent, with the Green party at eight per cent. This suggests that with a year and a half to go before the next election, things are still plenty competitive, especially since the legislature will expand to 122 seats from its current 107. Many of those new seats will be created in areas where the Liberals have done well over the past 13 years, during which they’ve won four straight elections.

That undecided factor extends to assessments of party leaders as well: nearly three in 10 of those polled can't say which of the three major party leaders would make the best premier, and an additional 10 per cent say "none of the above." Among decided voters, the race is essentially tied: PC Leader Patrick Brown has 22 per cent support, the NDP's Andrea Horwath has 19 per cent support and Premier Kathleen Wynne is at 18 per cent support.

Taken together, these results suggest a large chunk of the electorate is still open to persuasion.

“Premier Wynne is down but not out,” is how IRG’s Greg Lyle puts it.

What the Liberals have to figure out is how to make the premier more appealing to the electorate, since she seems to be the source of much of the public’s antipathy to the Liberals. When judging the positive vs. negative attributes of each leader, Horwath leads with a +20 per cent score, and Brown comes next at +9 per cent. Premier Wynne, however, has a huge hill to climb: She’s at -34 per cent, suggesting voter qualms are more about the Liberal leader than the party's brand overall.

Horwath always scores high on this question, but this is rarely sufficient to translate into votes. Other factors, such as party platform, performance on the campaign trail and past voting habits, have a bigger impact election results.

And what about the Tory leader? “The wild card in all this is Patrick Brown,” Lyle says. “He has a net positive reputation among those who know him, but most people don’t know him. Who will define him? The PCs? The Liberals? The unions?” Clearly, that is still to be determined.

Perhaps the most frightening number for the governing Liberals is the “it’s time for a change” metric. Fully two-thirds of those surveyed think the province needs a new party in government.

In his recent book, Campaign Confessions, long-time campaign consultant John Laschinger says when that number reaches 60 per cent, it’s virtually impossible for a candidate or party to win. Laschinger points out Stephen Harper started the last federal election campaign with more than 60 per cent of the electorate wanting a change in government, and thus Laschinger knew the federal Conservatives were done. Wynne still has a lot of time to do something about her unpopularity, but as the number suggests, it’s a very tall order.

Interestingly enough, the Grits are still plenty popular in the part of the province which has given them oodles of seats. In the centre of Toronto the Liberals enjoy 42 per cent support, with the PCs trailing at 30 per cent, the NDP at 20 per cent and the Greens at seven per cent. Liberal support is even stronger in the inner suburbs that ring Toronto: there they are at 48 per cent, the PCs are at 28 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent, and the Greens at 5 per cent. (The Liberals currently hold 19 of Toronto’s 22 seats in the legislature.)

When it comes to specific issues, the Innovative Research Group found the overall health of the economy was still issue No. 1 for the public (26 per cent). Electricity prices ranked second (19 per cent), with fully half the electorate saying that how each party handles the electricity file would affect how they ultimately vote — that’s up 17 points in just two years.

Need more evidence that the electricity file is affecting the government’s popularity? Fully 70 per cent strongly or somewhat disagree with the notion that Ontario’s electricity prices and quality of service are "well-protected."

The survey also clearly indicates the public still doesn't understand one of the Liberals’ most significant policy initiatives: the cap and trade approach to carbon. Ontario has joined a new carbon market (which also includes Quebec and California) that puts a price on carbon emissons. Big polluters are expected to contribute $1.9 billion to the Ontario treasury next fiscal year by buying carbon credits to comply with new emission standards. Only 22 per cent of Ontarians think that’s a good plan; 22 per cent think it’s bad. But a whopping 57 per cent have no idea what cap and trade is at all. Given that the government has staked much of its future on this signature policy, that has to be concerning to them.

Lyle says that even though the overall numbers look bad for the Liberals, the measures the government took in its recent throne speech to reduce electricity prices, such as taking the HST off hydro bills, were effective with the voters the Liberals need to win over.

The numbers also show that for better or for worse (perhaps for better and for worse), the public clearly identifies the Liberals as the party on some key energy and environmental issues. For voters who care about ensuring energy reliability and reducing the impact of the electricity system on the environment, the Liberals rank first. But on the issue of keeping utility prices in check, the Liberals were fourth. More respondents chose the PCs and NDP or said they were undecided — despite support for the HST cut.

On the one hand, this survey shows a clear road map ahead for the Liberals’ re-election hopes. They clearly have to demonstrate a much better handle on the energy file. As Lyle points out, despite everything, “The Liberals’ potential pool of support is still almost as large as in the last election.”

On the other hand, it’s taken a long time and billions of dollars to make up for years of neglecting the energy system by governments of all stripes. The Liberals have less than two years to fix what still ails it. That much change in so little time could be an Everest-sized mountain to climb.