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WWE News: Historical look at Monday's Raw TV rating drop-off - cause for concern or ESPN competition?



Jul 13, 2011 - 7:15:44 PM

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By James Caldwell, Torch assistant editor



There could be cause for concern with Monday's WWE Raw scoring a year-low rating (outside of the previous week's Fourth of July rating) for the climax of the John Cena-C.M. Punk-Vince McMahon storyline leading to the Money in the Bank PPV.



Cable TV competition on Monday night could also be viewed as a factor affecting the rating, especially ESPN's "Home Run Derby." A review of the last five editions of the Derby against Raw reveals less noticeable effect on ratings over the past two years (2009 and 2010) compared to 2007 and 2008.



There are also several variables to consider, such as sagging Raw TV ratings over the past three years driving down audience levels, in general, for Raw. There's also the effect of a more pronounced post-WrestleMania lull period in recent years.



Specific to this year, there's the possibility that Fourth of July landing on a Monday this year took regular viewers out of their habitual Monday night viewing practices on this week's Raw.



Looking at the hard numbers, the following is a five-year break down of the past five editions of Raw up against the annual Derby on ESPN:



July 9, 2007 - 3.4 rating / 4.6 million viewers

July 14, 2008 - 3.2 rating / 4.8 million viewers

July 13, 2009 - 3.6 rating / 5.3 million viewers

July 12, 2010 - 3.3 rating / 4.8 million viewers

July 11, 2011 - 2.9 rating / 4.4 million viewers



The following is a break down of the week-to-week change in ratings. Plus, a comparison to each year's average rating for a broader look at whether the Derby potentially affected ratings.



July 9, 2007 - (9.7% decline vs. previous week, down 7.5% vs. 2007 average)



July 14, 2008 - (8.3% decline vs. previous week, down 2.8% vs. 2008 average)



July 13, 2009 - (1.6% decline vs. previous week, down 1.1% vs. 2009 average)



July 12, 2010 - (0.9% decline from previous week, up 1.1% vs. 2010 average)



July 11, 2011 - (vs. Fourth of July previous week, down 12.5% vs. 2011 average)



Caldwell's Analysis: The strength or weakness of individual storylines and coming in or out of a PPV are also factors to consider in previous years. However, the effect of the Derby seems to have subsided the last two years compared to the previous two years. I still lean toward cable TV competition on Monday night being a strong factor in the poor rating for Monday's show, but there should still be concern over the lack of a ratings increase for the climax of the build-up.



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