Akin is now mounting a populist-tinged campaign. Akin still has shot in Senate race

CAPE GIRARDEAU, Mo. — Senior Republicans and leading pundits quickly declared Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments a mortal blow to his Senate candidacy, writing off the conservative congressman’s campaign in one of the country’s most important races.

But a month after his comments set the political world on fire, there’s a different feeling on the ground here among operatives, voters, activists and officials in both parties: Akin can still win.


Akin’s strategy rests on a big push to turn out the base in areas like conservative southwestern Missouri while stemming losses in Democratic-friendly bastions, such as the St. Louis region — all the while waging a pressure campaign on Republicans in Washington to send national money into a tightly contested race. It’s a strategy intended to rehab his badly bruised image — much of it stemming from sharp criticism from within his own party.

The devoutly religious Presbyterian is making an active push to court evangelical voters, including here in Rush Limbaugh’s hometown, where he delivered an emotional appeal — holding back tears at times — to several dozen social conservatives so he can launch a grass-roots campaign to bring out like-minded voters to the polls.

“There are a lot of people in this state who still love freedom, and they still love God, and they’re willing to stand up for it,” Akin declared at the onset of a weeklong bus tour to try to energize the conservative base.

As polls show that Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill remains vulnerable, Akin and his team are relentlessly attacking her vote for “Obamacare,” believing the tactic can pick away at undecided voters even in Democratic-leaning areas. Even though Mitt Romney has called on Akin to quit, he’s running strong in Missouri, which could help the congressman. And two of Romney’s old rivals, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, jumped behind Akin’s campaign this week, a sign of new support on the right.

The fact that Akin is still a contender has unnerved Democrats here and put Republican leaders in Washington in an increasingly awkward position after they slammed the congressman and vowed not to spend a dime in the state if Akin refused to drop out — a decision that some Republicans fear could cost their party the majority.

Akin is now mounting a populist-tinged campaign, where he’s stoking anger among the party faithful toward his GOP “bosses,” a shot at Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn — all of whom called on Akin to end his bid before the Tuesday drop-out deadline.

In an interview with POLITICO, Akin accused McConnell and Cornyn of being hostile toward conservatives and gravely warned them that if he loses a race that could determine the Senate majority, the blame will fall squarely on them.

“It’s opened my eyes to a new world,” Akin said when asked about the calls from his party’s leadership to drop out. “There are certain people in the Senate who are not comfortable with conservatives — and as I look back historically, seeing what’s been done in a couple of past elections, I’ve been hit by the same thing that other people have been hit by.”

McConnell, who held a fundraiser in Missouri Wednesday for his own reelection committee, declined to comment through a spokesman. In a Wednesday afternoon statement, Rob Jesmer, the NRSC’s executive director, called Akin the “far more preferable candidate” in the race and signaled that the group may reverse its stand after scrapping a $5 million ad buy attacking McCaskill because Akin refused to drop out — a risky statement that gives national Democrats a new opportunity to tie the controversial congressmen firmly to his party.

The changing nature of the race has given Akin a new lease on life, but there still are considerable challenges facing his bid. McCaskill is up and running with more than $500,000 a week on TV, branding herself as a bipartisan moderate and attacking Akin as part of the extreme right wing of his party, including a hard-hitting ad Wednesday singling out his rape comments and other controversial statements he’s made. Akin sources don’t expect to match McCaskill dollar for dollar on TV — they’re being outspent about 10 to 1 this week — but they do plan to make a heavier investment in two bigger media markets of Kansas City and St. Louis in the coming weeks.

Akin also lost a month of crucial campaign time as he apologized for his comments and fended off criticism from his own party that contributed to his growing unpopularity. Though he’s hired more staff, Akin is still running a shoestring campaign of sorts, with his wife, Lulli, serving as his closest adviser and his 31-year-old son, Perry, managing his campaign.

“You’ve got to move them one inch at a time,” Lulli Akin quietly told supporters here as she coached them on how to convince undecided voters, according to a person in the conversation.

Moreover, Akin’s now-infamous comments — that in “legitimate rape,” women rarely get pregnant because their bodies shut down — have energized Democrats in the state, including Planned Parenthood activists who show up at virtually every one of his campaign events with chants of, “Todd Akin is mistakin’ about the baby-making!”

To close the gender gap, Gingrich — the former House speaker — urged Akin this week to begin enlisting every elected female GOP official to provide testimonials in an ad campaign on the congressman’s behalf.

Still, Akin has yet to prove he can broaden his appeal beyond his enthusiastic conservative following that helped elect him to the House six times, and he’s trying to make clear he’s not a one-issue candidate.

“I’m not running for pastor. I’m not running for priest. I’m not running for any of those things,” Akin said when asked about his views on the separation of church and state. “I’m running for the Senate.”

While Akin’s team hopes to raise $1 million between the time of his remarks last month and mid-October, officials inside the campaign won’t say how much of that has been spent, meaning he could still be at a sizable financial disadvantage to the well-funded McCaskill.

Regardless of McCaskill’s money advantage, there’s no doubt the state has trended more conservative since McCaskill won her first term in 2006, and Republicans believe they can pull off big wins between the metropolitan areas of Kansas City and St. Louis.

“If the farm bureau of his state is endorsing him — this is a very big rural state — by what right do Republicans in Washington say he’s not an acceptable candidate?” Gingrich told POLITICO.

Polls have been unreliable in the race, but both sides agree that it’s close. And if it stays tight in mid-October, GOP party leaders in Washington will be left with some tough decisions.

If they decide to put money into his race, they will give Democrats a bigger opportunity to make Akin a liability for GOP candidates nationwide. But if they bankroll Akin and he loses, they would have squandered precious resources that would have otherwise been spent in hotly contested races that could tip the Senate majority in their favor.

Yet if they do nothing and Akin loses, they will be blamed by the GOP rank and file and conservative activist base for contributing to Akin’s loss by sitting on the sidelines. And if they do stay out while watching Akin pull off a stunning upset, they’ll have a Republican senator who owes his party’s leadership absolutely nothing. Indeed, Akin wouldn’t say if he backs McConnell or Cornyn for the No. 1 and 2 spots they are respectively seeking in the next Congress.

“I think there will be backlash” if GOP leaders don’t engage, said Connie Mackey, president of the political arm of the Family Research Council, which plans to launch a Missouri bus tour in October and unveil a Christian radio-ad blitz on Akin’s behalf.

In the interview, Akin accused Republican leaders of advancing policies that have “not been pretty friendly” to conservatives. And he said that in the immediate aftermath of his comments last month, Cornyn told him privately that it was “reasonable” to expect the NRSC would come back into the race. Jesmer, the senior NRSC aide, quickly called Akin back to tell him not to expect any support at all.

Other conservative groups have yet to decide whether to get back in the race. The anti-tax Club for Growth has no plans to spend money in Missouri, and Adam Brandon, executive vice president at Freedom Works, said his tea party group won’t jump into the race, largely because of Akin’s stand on earmarks.

But that gives little comfort to McCaskill’s supporters.

“We’re concerned,” said Alison Gee, a Planned Parenthood official protesting outside an Akin fundraiser in Kirkwood. “This is Missouri.”