Will it be Chow vs. Tory or Tory vs. Ford?

These are the questions political operatives and citizens alike have been asking themselves in anticipation of Tuesday evening’s mayoral debate hosted by York South-Weston community associations. After almost nine months of campaigning were upended by Rob Ford’s surprise cancer diagnosis and Doug Ford’s last-minute entry into the race as his brother’s replacement, the debate will be the first major event in a truncated and recalibrated contest.

It’s an opportunity to upend Tory’s relentless rise in the polls and rewrite the narrative of a 10-month campaign in its closing weeks, said political strategist Brian Kelcey, who until recently headed up David Soknacki’s mayoral campaign.

Kelcey predicts that Tory will focus on Ford, who presents the most likely threat to his lead in the polls.

“The best situation for Tory is one where voters see him as the alternative to four years of the Ford brothers and their misrule,” Kelcey said. “He wants it to be, as much as possible, a conversation between him and Doug about how much more reasonable he is.”

The danger for Tory, however, is that he’ll be dragged into a verbal sparring match that could generate too many fireworks.

“How do you fight a guy who can be as boisterous as Doug Ford without falling into the trap of seeming like you’re part of the same circus?” said Kelcey.

Herein lies an opportunity for Chow, who needs Ford to disrupt the campaign narrative, which has up to this point been a story of her bleeding support. If Tory and Ford lock horns in a way that makes them appear to be similar, said Kelcey, it will lend credence to her position as the only viable alternative to them both.

“Olivia Chow will not be pulling many votes from Ford, so she wants this to be a battle between her credentials as a progressive candidate and the notion that John Tory is too conservative to be the right alternative to Ford,” Kelcey said.

But not everyone thinks Chow should be focusing on Tory. Scott Reid, who spent years working for former prime minister Paul Martin, counsels a more aggressive strategy so that Chow can spoil Ford’s coming-out party: “I would take a chainsaw to him.”

“I wouldn’t give him an inch of room; I wouldn’t give him an ounce of respect. I would try to antagonize him and get him into a conflict. I would try to goad him into being the worst possible version of himself,” Reid said.

The best possible outcome for Chow, he says, would be a YouTube clip of Doug Ford getting angry. “And Chow has to be on camera; she can’t allow herself to be a third wheel,” he said.

As for Ford, he should do his best to stay above the fray, though considering his personality, this may prove difficult.

“If I was counselling Doug Ford, I would tell him to make a conscious effort to speak to voters. I wouldn’t worry about the other candidates. I wouldn’t worry about trying to score debating points. I would speak to the camera, speak to the crowd,” Reid said.

Rob Ford was at his best when doing this in previous debates, and his brother would be wise to take note, said Reid. The problem, however, is that while Rob was well known, people still aren’t familiar or comfortable with Doug Ford.

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“Is he Rob Ford without a crack pipe? Or is he the overbearing, belligerent, angry older brother? He’s got to be very, very careful to not present himself — as he sometimes has in the past — as the raging angry man,” Reid said. “The trap for Doug Ford is to get caught up in a debate … and allow himself to be baited into an angry exchange with either one of his opponents.”

But those pithy comments that have sometimes landed Ford in trouble are also the most memorable, said Kelcey, and that kind of snappy communication is what successful campaigns are all about.

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