QUEBEC CITY — Stephen Harper’s Conservatives did not need Quebec to achieve a majority in the last federal election and the road to a similar victory next fall does not necessarily run through the province.

The addition of 27 new ridings in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia gives the ruling party quite a bit of room west of Quebec to make up for possible losses in Atlantic Canada.

The new ridings tend to be located in more Conservative-friendly territory than most of Quebec, where the party — province-wide — has not run better than third or fourth in voting intentions since the last election.

Still no national party can write off a region and not expect to pay a price down the road.

Just ask the Liberals who, in the glory days, routinely gave Western Canada and, in particular, Alberta short shrift at campaign time.

With 78 ridings Quebec is the second-largest electoral prize on offer in a federal election and with the Bloc Québécois fading from the mix, those seats are back in play for the parties that are vying to form the government.

Moreover the notion that an incumbent prime minister would not strive to have Quebec representation at the federal table would not sit well with many non-Quebec voters.

In the big Quebec picture, the fights that will feature the Conservatives in a competitive role will be sideshows. The 2015 Quebec battle next fall will mainly pit the Liberals against the NDP.

Still, the flip side of Quebec’s status as the province where Harper did the most poorly in 2011 is that it is the place that offers his party the most room — as modest as it may be — for growth.

The prime minister’s five MPs beat the odds of a losing Conservative Quebec campaign in the last two elections. Their re-election prospects are as good or better than most Conservative incumbents outside of Saskatchewan and Alberta.

But when it comes to actual gains, Conservative strategists have specifically circled the Quebec City region.

The provincial capital has long featured a political microclimate that is — among other things — distinctly more Conservative-friendly than the rest of the province.

The so-called Trudeau effect is less noticeable here and it is one place where the notion that Montreal will not give Harper the time of day is an asset. The Quebec City elites don’t mind not having to compete with the metropolis for the attention of this federal government.

The fact that the Quebec City’s media environment features the kind of red-meat talk radio that the Conservatives tend to be comfortable with in other regions of the country also helps.

The conservative Coalition Avenir Québec does well provincially in the Quebec City area. Just last fall, the party won a byelection in the provincial riding that overlaps with Public Safety Minister Steven Blaney’s federal seat.

Harper has been shopping for Quebec City star candidates and it seems he has found one on the front bench of the CAQ. Gérard Deltell — a former journalist turned MNA — is expected to run for the Conservatives next fall.

There has also been talk of former minister Lawrence Cannon, who lost his Outaouais seat to the NDP in 2011, attempting a comeback in a Quebec City riding this year, but so far the rumour has been unsubstantiated.

At the end of the day though the Conservative Quebec game plan mostly speaks of limited expectations. If it were transposed to Ontario, it would be as if Harper set out to bypass the GTA to focus on winning the Ottawa region.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Party strategists maintain they have not given up on Montreal and its large suburban belt. They point to their efforts to make a strong bid for the seat of Mount Royal, an atypical riding in that it boasts a large Jewish community, as proof of their active interest.

But that operation has more to do with bragging rights than with taking Montreal by storm. Even if it meant nothing in the larger scheme of things the Conservatives would love nothing better than to plant their flag in the riding that Pierre Trudeau long represented in the House of Commons.

Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

Read more about: