India’s rise in cases is mimicking the exponential rise seen in the early days of some Western countries

While initially the number of COVID-19 cases were increasing at a slower pace in India compared to many other countries, things have taken a turn for the worse since Friday. With 100 new cases on Saturday, India’s climb has become steeper. Despite this rapid climb, the growth in cases is still lower than many Western countries at this stage. However, India’s testing rate continues to be comparatively poor.

Rapid progress

As of March 21, 166 nations recorded at least one COVID-19 case. Of them, 46, including India, crossed the 300 mark.

How many countries have crossed 300 cases?

image/svg+xml No. of countries Number of cases crossed as of March 21 170 130 90 50 166 92 70 63 53 46 1 case 100 cases 150 cases 200 cases 300 cases 50 cases

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Progression comparison

The table lists the % of countries which took more days or fewer days than India to cross a certain number of cases. For instance, 57% of countries took more days than India to jump from 200 to >300 cases, while only 4% took fewer days. The more days a country takes to reach a mark, the better.

How many countries crossed 300 cases faster than India?

image/svg+xml Case progress % took more days % took less days % took same days Total nations From 0 to 50 cases 11% 88% 0% 92 50 to 100 13% 73% 13% 70 100 to 150 10% 78% 11% 63 150 to 200 15% 74% 9% 53 200 to 300 57% 4% 37% 46

Worrying rise

The graph depicts the no. of cases since the 100th case in each country. With 100 new cases on Saturday, India’s path (shown by the red line) is mimicking the exponential rise seen in the early days of some Western countries.

Where does India stand compared to other countries?

image/svg+xml 2468101214161820222426283032 Days since the 100th case 100 200 500 1,000 2,000 5,000 10,000 20,000 50,000 No. of cases 50,000 20,000 10,000 5,000 2,000 1,000 500 200 100 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 No. of cases Days since the 100th case Italy Spain Germany Iran France U.K. Belgium Qatar Malaysia Japan S. Korea Singapore Hong Kong Kuwait India India has climbed steeper, steering away from the likes of Singapore and Hong Kong After an initial surge, S. Korea managed to flatten the curve U.S.

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Still behind testing

Countries like Taiwan (only 143 cases) and South Korea (which has contained the spread) have some of the highest testing rates. The graph shows the tests per million people as of Feb. 4 , Mar. 9 and the latest date in select nations. India’s testing rate as of March 21 was behind South Korea’s & Taiwan’s February 4 figure.

Where does India stand on testing rates?

The graph shows the tests per million people as of Feb. 4 (shown by blue circle) , Mar. 9 (shown by orange circle) and the latest date (shown by green circle) in select nations.

image/svg+xml Taiwan India U.S. U.K. S. Korea 10 100 500 1,000 5,000 Testing rate in India continued to be signifcantly lower compared to that of other countries Tests per million population (Log scale) 6,388 986 710 11.8 150 Latest date: India & S. Korea: Mar. 21; U.S. & U.K.; Mar. 20; Taiwan: Mar. 15 11.6

Sources: Johns Hopkins University, health ministries of countries