UKIP 'could hit 30%' if it can get its message across: Analysis of 100,000 voters' views says support for party is not just driven by Eurosceptism

Report says party could gain more of a foothold among electorate

But study also warns of 'demographic timebomb' facing Ukip



The rise of the party, headed by Nigel Farage, has been attributed to voter dissatisfaction with the three main parties and immigration issues

UKIP could attract 30 per cent of the vote if it can get its act together, a major new study of the party claims today.

The academic study, which analysed the views of more than 100,000 voters, says support for Ukip is driven not just by Euroscepticism, but also by ‘hostility’ to immigration and ‘intense dissatisfaction’ with the three main parties.

It suggests that almost one-third of voters share at least two of these values and might be persuaded to vote for the party in future if it can succeed in getting its message across.

The study also finds that Ukip’s potential support has increased since the start of the financial crisis, with public dissatisfaction growing about the way the main parties have handled immigration.

The report’s co-author Dr Robert Ford, of the University of Manchester, said: ‘UKIP are currently winning over one voter in ten but their potential far exceeds their current support in the polls by a margin of three to one.

This revolt has been a long time coming, but may have a long way to run.’ The new study also suggests that Ukip’s supporters have been ‘deeply misunderstood’, with the party now attracting growing support from working class voters.

The findings are drawn from a new book on the party by Dr Ford and Matthew Goodwin, of the University of Nottingham.

Dr Goodwin said: ‘Ukip are winning over the “Left Behind” groups in British society - old, working class, men, with very few educational qualifications.

These are voters who hold a very different set of values to the professional, middle-class majority - they are far more nationalist, Eurosceptic, fiercely opposed to immigration and feel like they have no voice in politics. They look out at a country their neither recognise nor want to be a part of.

The study also warns that the party faces a series of major challenges, including a demographic timebomb resulting from the fact it has 'little appeal to university graduates, the young or ethnic minorities'

‘Euroscepticism gets (Nigel) Farage through the door, but to close the deal he needs to also tap into voter concerns about immigration and their dissatisfaction with our mainstream politics.’

But the study warns that the party faces a series of major challenges, including a demographic timebomb resulting from the fact it has ‘little appeal to university graduates, the young or ethnic minorities’.

The findings come as Ukip comes under pressure over its voting record and the eccentric - and sometimes extreme - views of some of its leading members.

The senior Tory backbencher Robert Halfon last week described some Ukip supporters as being ‘literally akin to Nazis’.

But the authors of the new report argue that political and media attacks on the eccentric views of some leading figures have little impact on its support.

Ukip's London headquarters in Brook's Mews, Mayfair. One former employee yesterday described the atmosphere there as 'extraordinary'

‘The average Ukip voter thinks these attacks are all an establishment stitch-up,’ Dr Ford said.

The new book says that David Cameron has proved to be a ‘significant recruiting sergeant’ for Ukip, with ‘dislike of Ed Miliband’ also a growing factor in the party’s popularity.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage last night said the research contradicted popular stereotypes about the party’s supporters.

In an article in the London Evening Standard he wrote: ‘The point is that the idea of Ukip fishing for votes predominantly from the Tory pond is plain wrong.

'To listen to received wisdom inside the Westminster bubble you would think the typical Ukip voter is a retired half-colonel living on the edge of Salisbury Plain. If there was ever anything in that stereotype there certainly isn’t any longer.’



* UKIP’S head office is a disorganised ‘freak show’, Nigel Farage’s wife has told friends. Reports yesterday claimed that Kirsten Farage has been taken aback by the eccentric atmosphere at the party’s London headquarters.

Mrs Farage, who earns up to £30,000 from the public purse as one of her husband’s assistants, is said to have told colleagues that the party HQ is a ‘work environment that takes some getting used to’ and described it privately as a freak show.

One senior adviser to Mr Farage sometimes brings her pet cat to work, others play juvenile games in the office and one official has been known to sit with an ‘Orgasmatron’ wire massage device on her head.

One former employee yesterday described the atmosphere as ‘extraordinary’, adding: ‘Everybody has been out with everyone else. There are animals in the office, people taking their clothes off... there are no sanctions.’