Exclusive: Poll shows climate change tops list of issues for people in the electorate, ahead of the economy and hospital funding

A clear majority of voters in the electorate of Wentworth want children on Nauru to be brought to Australia for medical assessment, and 55% say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who could deliver that outcome, according to a new poll.

A poll commissioned by the Refugee Council of Australia says 65.4% of a sample of 870 Wentworth residents want children on Nauru brought to Australia, supporting a recent public intervention to that effect by the Australian Medical Association and other medical groups.

The poll also suggests climate change is a significant issue in the byelection, which could cost the Morrison government its one-seat majority in the House of Representatives.

Climate change topped a list of issues influencing the votes of local residents on 20 October, ranking ahead of the economy and hospital funding, and 62.3% of the sample said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate with a credible plan to tackle climate change.

Refugee advocates ramp up campaign in Wentworth ahead of byelection Read more

Prominent local faith leaders and refugee advocates are mobilising a ground campaign in Wentworth with the objective of building political pressure for a breakthrough for children enduring physical and mental health problems on Nauru.

They are also concerned about the impact of the government changing the eligibility status for the status resolution support services (SRSS) program, which provides a safety net for people living in the community on bridging visas.

The senior rabbi at the Emanuel Synagogue, Jeffrey Kamins, has urged the Wentworth candidates to attend a town hall meeting in the electorate on 14 October. “The members of our community are deeply concerned about the situation facing refugees and people seeking asylum in Australia,” he said.

“They’re especially troubled by what doctors are referring to as a humanitarian emergency for children on Nauru and also the destitution of thousands of people seeking asylum in Australia due to government welfare cuts.”

The Anglican rector, Geoff Broughton, echoed that view. “The Anglican church has grave concerns about the kids trapped on Nauru,” he said.

“We need to hear from all the candidates what they plan to do to ensure the safety of these kids and their families.”

The chief executive of St Francis Social Services at House of Welcome, Lyn Harrison, said an additional hundred people a week were now seeking food, financial assistance and accommodation because of the cuts to the SRSS.

While single seat polls can be unreliable, the survey, conducted this week, suggests the contest in Wentworth is tight.

The poll has Liberal Dave Sharma on 38.1%, Labor’s Tim Murray on 24.5%, the independent Kerry Phelps behind Labor on 15.9% and the Greens’ Dominic Wy Kanak on 8.7%, with other independents polling in single digits.

The pollsters were asked to project two two-party preferred calculations – one with Sharma and Murray finishing in the top two and another with Sharma and Phelps in those spots.

The calculation suggests that if Labor finishes in the top two, the contest is split 50/50, and if Phelps finishes in the top two, then Phelps gets over the line 53% to 47%.

Electoral analyst Ben Raue has looked at the numbers to compare the current Liberal vote as captured in the poll with the vote in the seat during the election in 2016.

Raue says the Liberal vote has dropped in every demographic group, but particularly among men and residents aged between 35 and 65.

The vote is down 27.1% for men, 18.5% for women, 5% for residents aged from 18 to 34, 29.2% for 35-50 year olds, 30.8% for 51-65 year olds and 17.7% for people over 65.

Wentworth byelection: Liberal vote collapses as poll shows safe seat now a close contest Read more

Raue then looked at the cohort of voters who backed Malcolm Turnbull in 2016 but are not intending to vote for the Liberals on 20 October, to ascertain what issues were influencing their votes.

Climate change again topped the list (36.6%), followed by sending a message to the Liberal party that Turnbull should not have been deposed (32.5%). Getting children out of offshore detention on Nauru was nominated by 7.9% of the group – ahead of hospital and schools funding.

A substantial majority of that cohort – 87.9% – answered yes when asked whether children should be removed from Nauru for medical assessment and treatment, and 72% said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate championing that outcome.

Thus far, only the Greens candidate, Phelps and fellow independent Licia Heath have indicated they will attend the town hall on 14 October.

Scott Morrison has rebuffed the push to send an independent medical team to Nauru and bring children and families off the island, saying nothing can compromise Australia’s deterrence regime.

The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, has expressed concern about the condition of children in offshore detention, and tacitly backed the Australian Medical Association, without giving a firm commitment about what he might do.