If Jeremy Corbyn can use the TV debates to hook in remain voters, the Tory path to a majority looks very steep and narrow There are some Johnson allies who question the wisdom of a two-person debate

Jeremy Corbyn needs a game changer to turn around his party’s fortunes in this election campaign. The Conservatives are consistently polling ahead of Labour. The unashamedly pro-EU Liberal Democrats are eating into Labour’s Remain vote. Boris Johnson leads Corbyn on the question of who would make the best prime minister. Speak to a Labour MP and they will privately tell you that their party’s current best case scenario is a hung party where they form a minority government.

That pivotal moment could come next week when Corbyn faces Johnson in the first head-to-head debate of the campaign. ITV’s planned television debate has led to cries of foul play from the smaller opposition parties who have been excluded from the meet. The Liberal Democrats have described it as a ‘cosy establishment stitch-up’ and are taking legal action over the exclusion of their party leader Jo Swinson from the debate. They complain that Labour cannot be described as a true Remain party so those who want to stop Brexit won’t have a voice in the room.

Both main parties believe that the arrangement ought to benefit them. During the 2017 snap election, Corbyn’s popularity climbed in the wake of multiple media appearances. In contrast, risk averse Theresa May’s decision to decline an invitation to take part in TV debates (on the grounds that she preferred ‘to get out and about and meet voters’) backfired. It went on to play into a narrative of a Prime Minister avoiding scrutiny and taking voters for granted. Johnson’s team are determined not to repeat the mistakes of 2017.

Johnson has committed to several head to head debates over the course of the campaign. However, he is eschewing a BBC seven-way podium debate – instead, sending a member of the Cabinet to represent. The majority view in CCHQ is that a head-to-head debate ought to play to Johnson’s strengths. Unlike Theresa May, Johnson is a confident and charismatic public speaker.

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What’s more, he currently has a clear lead over Corbyn on the question of ‘who would make the best Prime Minister?’. A recent YouGov poll put Johnson at 43 per cent to Corbyn on 20 per cent. His popularity has so far climbed in this election.

This is a source of strong encouragement to the Conservative campaign as there is a view that when it comes to indicators of result, this metric is key to success. The Tory campaign director Isaac Levido worked on Scott Morrison’s campaign in the recent Australian election. Morrison won a surprise victory – but even though his party wasn’t leading in the polls for the campaign, Morrison was consistently ahead of his Labor rival on the question of who was voters’ preferred PM.

The hope of a head-to-head debate is that this will cement this image further with voters. If the Tories can press the message that only two candidates can be prime minister on December 13th – Johnson and Corbyn – this should boost Johnson. The question of who do you want to be PM, helps the Tories with both Tory / Lib Dem and Tory / Brexit Party waverers.

But this strategy isn’t without risks. There are some Johnson allies who question the wisdom of a two-person debate. The Conservatives’ electoral strategy rests on the party uniting the Leave vote – and the Remain vote splitting between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. By cutting the Lib Dems out of the picture, Corbyn has a perfect opportunity to pitch himself as the only viable alternative to Johnson and the only viable route to a second referendum.

If support for the Liberal Democrats falls away and goes to Labour, the electoral landscape starts to look very different – and much trickier for the Tories. The former Labour pollster James Morris tells me: ‘The Labour party is not picking enough of the Remain vote up. That vote is splitting and if that vote splits, the Conservatives are going to get a majority. So if I were sitting in Labour HQ I would be thinking about what are the things we need to do to tell remain voters that we are your choice not the other people’. The debate offers a way to do this: ‘The two-head debate is that opportunity to land that message’.

The Tories were taken aback in 2017 when Corbyn’s popularity increased through the course of the campaign. Compared to May, he at times appeared the humorous and relatable option for prime minister. They believe that having Johnson as the Tory candidate reduces the chance of a repeat of 2017.

However, if Corbyn can convince Remain voters that he is their best and only hope of remaining in the EU, the Tory path to a majority could once more look very steep and narrow. Corbyn’s last best chance to turn things around is on Tuesday.

Katy Balls is deputy political editor of the Spectator