With every new Marvel announcement (the latest of which is due on 5 March), a combination of excitement and resignation hits. While the Disney-owned studio has a habit of producing superhero films that fly a little higher than the rest, there are only so many costumed crimefighters we can bear to see on the big screen.

Do we really need 11 Marvel films in the next four years, which, added to the other superhero offerings on the horizon, makes more than 25 in total?

This week saw the arrival of a rather bleak report from entertainment analyst Doug Creutz, in which he explained why last year’s US box office suffered the worst summer since 2006. He believes that uniformity of studio product has led to audiences staying at home.

“As diversity in the industry film slate decreases, we think the risks of accelerating declines in overall attendance are also increasing,” he wrote. While he thinks that we could see a slight improvement this year, the franchise-heavy release schedule might lead to a small cluster of winners and a large pool of expensive losers.

“While we do expect some significant strength in the top two to three spots in 2015,” he wrote, “we are not convinced that the overall slate is going to drive performance that is significantly better than what we have generally seen over the past four years.” He also fears that the rise in superhero blockbusters is going to lead to disaster for some studios, in the same way that a wider pool of animated films has led to some casualties, with underwhelming receipts for Penguins of Madagascar and Mr Peabody & Sherman most recently.

So far 2015 has seen success stories in the shape of mid-budget adult dramas American Sniper and Fifty Shades of Grey, but there have also been a number of big flops, including Jupiter Ascending, Blackhat, Mortdecai and Seventh Son. Creutz believes that numbers are on a par with 2014 at this stage.

With a year of expensive sequels ahead (Avengers: Age of Ultron and Star Wars: The Force Awakens are both budgeted at more than $200m), it’s a vital time for a dramatic uplift in both US and international box office, which has seen a reduced rate of growth in the past three years. But what can Hollywood learn from what has been working?

Stop splitting



Last year’s biggest US hits were distinctive for various key reasons. The reigning champ was the third Hunger Games film, the latest in a refreshingly dour franchise that’s made over $2.3bn (£1.5bn) worldwide. But while the third chapter of a rare action series fronted by a female character might have come out on top, it was considerably down from Catching Fire’s total. Interest in the films, and star Jennifer Lawrence, is still feverish, but the decision to split the final book into two parts led to an A- CinemaScore from audiences that was down on the A grades handed to the first two and a series low of 68% on Rotten Tomatoes. It was the first time in a critically supported franchise that business needs overtook creative impulses – and audiences realised.

Keep it quippy ...



Guardians of the Galaxy, the surprise hit of the summer, might have come from Marvel, but it carved out its own identity aside from their other superhero fare. Thanks to a quippy script, a loose vibe and an unconventional soundtrack, it broke out beyond the fanboy crowd and showed that comic-book films can still pull large audiences in, if they prioritise elements other than how many things can explode into other things. It also provided a new leading man in Chris Pratt, who also starred in one of the year’s other successful franchise-starters The Lego Movie. Again, what sounded like a tired concept in a crowded genre was brought to life with sharp humour and a casual abandonment of cliche.



... or give it depth



Captain America: The Winter Soldier trailer Guardian

While Captain America: The Winter Soldier might have seemed like a generic proposition on paper, it was a surprisingly cunning conspiracy thriller that over-performed. The smart use of Anthony and Joe Russo as the creative team, best known for working on sitcoms such as Arrested Development and Community, paid off handsomely and showed the importance of hiring talented and unexpected names to handle historically safe material.

Try new voices



Looking forward to the forthcoming crop of films, some daring choices might lead to similar success. Chris Pratt’s next attempt to cement his action-hero status in Jurassic World sees him in the relatively untested hands of writer and director Colin Trevorrow, known for just one movie – the lo-fi time-travel indie Safety Not Guaranteed; Fox’s latest attempt to reboot The Fantastic Four sees Josh Trank, director of impressive found-footage thriller Chronicle, getting a chance to shine; and Looper’s Rian Johnson has been hired as the director of Star Wars Episode VIII.

While the above could lead to great things, experimentation hasn’t always worked quite so well. Remember when Gavin Hood, acclaimed director of Tsotsi, made X-Men Origins: Wolverine? Or how about (500) Days of Summer’s Marc Webb being trusted with the keys to the Spider-Man universe?

Listen to the audience



Marvel’s imminent big announcement will potentially bring with it even more release dates, and given the recent Spider-Man news, maybe some crossover titbits as well. But this time next year, the horizon could look rather different: Sony’s ambitious slate of Spider-Man spin-offs was cut down after the muted reaction to The Amazing Spider-Man 2, while Warner Brothers will be patiently waiting to see if Batman v Superman is big enough to warrant the long list of planned Justice League films.

Even if the next 12 months brings yet more diminishing returns for the big-budget blockbuster, we’re unlikely to see a drastic shift in the industry. But with the increase in popularity of other home-based platforms, audiences have more power than ever and studios will be paying closer attention to which heroes people actually want on the big screen.