Budget 2018: Why the Budget has made Tories nervous about an early election Things are about to get very choppy for the Prime Minister – the giveaways of this Budget could come in handy when appealing to voters

As the dust settles on Philip Hammond’s last Budget before Britain leaves the EU, a sense of unease is growing on the Tory benches. It’s not that backbenchers’ demands for extra money for pet projects weren’t listened to.

‘Given that Theresa May previously said there would be no early election only to then call one, her denial doesn’t mean much’

In fact, it’s exactly that which is making them nervous. Fiscal Phil’s uncharacteristic spending splurge has led to speculation that the loosening of the public purse strings is part of preparations for a different event: an early election.

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‘When’s the election?’

“So, when’s the election?” one influential Tory MP asked colleagues after Monday’s speech was over. It’s a view that’s shared on the other side too. John McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor, has been telling every journalist he can find that the Budget shows the Tories are getting ready to send the country to the polls early.

Theresa May attempted to dampen speculation yesterday by using her first post-Budget press conference to say the government is “not preparing for another general election. That would not be in the national interest”. Given that the Prime Minister previously said there would be no early election only to then call one, May’s denial doesn’t mean much.

Too many treats

So, why has a Budget which has been warmly received by the press and won a cautious thumbs up from the public led to predictions of another nightmarish snap election? As a general rule, governments tend to use the Budgets in the middle of their term to make the difficult – i.e. unpopular – decisions, and then the Budget near to an election to dole out the goodies.

But Hammond doled out goodies on steroids – at least by Tory standards. As well as a £20bn bung to the NHS, the Chancellor found billions for both Defence and an attempt to fix some of the flaws in Universal Credit. Potholes also received a splash of the cash – while schools got cash for those “little extras”. The icing on the cake was that all this spending was accompanied with a Tory voter-friendly tax cut – rather than a tax rise.

What’s more, it’s not clear that this was the fiscally responsible behaviour we’d come to expect from Spreadsheet Phil. Rather than keeping his powder dry to deal with a possible no-deal Brexit, Hammond has decided to let off a pile of ammunition. If the economy hits a bumpy patch, borrowing will have to take the strain. Even in benign economic conditions, the Tories won’t balance the books now.

This isn’t the long-term economic plan we had come to know from the Cameron days. The signs that public spending would be eased have been there for some time – with Theresa May announcing a huge cash increase for the NHS in the summer and declaring the end of austerity at the Tory party conference earlier this month. But what has taken MPs by surprise is the pace at which Hammond has tried to enact May’s wish.

A deadlock election

This is not the first time in recent weeks that the prospect of an early election has reared its head. Privately, some influential figures in government have long admitted that if Parliament won’t back the Brexit deal May strikes with the EU, then a general election might be the only way to break the deadlock.

‘Try to organise lunch with a Tory MP or government adviser for next month, and you receive a joking response that they’ll be campaigning for the election’

There are many reasons to think this is pie in the sky – not least the fixed term parliaments act, which means two thirds of MPs would have to vote in favour. This seems unlikely, given that the one thing most Tories can still agree on is that they don’t want an early election as it could open the door for Corbyn.

But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Try to organise lunch with a Tory MP or government adviser for next month, and you often receive a joking response that they’ll be campaigning for the election.

In truth, Theresa May is right to say that No 10 is not actively preparing for an early election, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t bearing in mind the possibility of one when making big decisions around issues such as the Budget – or her conference speech.

This budget could prove very handy

All the difficult Brexit compromises and decisions have been purposely put off until the Budget is out the way, over fears the DUP and Tory Eurosceptics could refuse to vote for it if they didn’t like the Brexit deal being negotiated.

That means that as of next month, things are going to start to get even more choppy for the beleaguered Prime Minister. There’s a chance that MPs will try to move against her before she even brings a deal back. But there’s also a possibility that she manages to get a deal through Parliament, but in the process loses the support of the DUP – the Northern Irish unionists propping up her government – over the Irish backstop. At that point, with no working majority, May would have little choice but to go to the polls.

It follows that whether intentional or not, Hammond’s good news Budget – steered by No 10 – could come in very useful for May should things start to unravel in the coming months.

Katy Balls is political correspondent at the Spectator magazine