History isn’t kind to NFL head coaches whose teams regressed record-wise in their second season on the job.

Even so, Tampa Bay would be wise to give Dirk Koetter the chance to try to buck those odds in 2018. Admittedly, the likelihood of that happening seems unlikely. The decision may even already be made.

WEEK 17 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

Not only are the Buccaneers (4-11) concluding their 10th straight season without a playoff appearance, Tampa Bay’s ownership has declined to publically indicate whether Koetter or general manager Jason Licht will be back.

And casting an even longer shadow on Koetter’s future: The head coach that brought the Bucs their only Super Bowl championship is now a viable candidate to return. The bad blood from when Jon Gruden was stunningly fired after the 2008 campaign ended earlier this year with his induction into the team’s Ring of Honor. Gruden, too, has admitted he would entertain the possibility of coaching again under the right circumstances.

The Bucs would make the most sense of all potential Gruden suitors provided the Glazer family gives him the salary and front-office juice needed to lure him away from ESPN.

The NFL rumor mill is already churning with gossip that Bruce Allen may leave his post as Washington’s football czar to get the band back together on Florida’s gulf coast. We do know for certain that Gruden still lives in Tampa. Statues of him and other key members of the 2002 Bucs are the centerpiece artwork of the lobby at team headquarters.

The reality of a 45-51 record in the six seasons after leading that squad to the Lombardi Trophy has gotten overshadowed by ESPN’s repackaging of Gruden as a quarterback guru despite his never having developed a young Bucs passer of any significance. Television commercials and the "Monday Night Football" announcing platform also have helped make Gruden a larger-than-life figure — particularly in a market where his name alone would sell tickets and create the kind of buzz his replacements failed to generate.

But enough about “Chucky.” The Bucs may still feel change is needed even if a Gruden reunion doesn’t happen. That’s because Tampa Bay rivals Oakland (6-9) as the NFL’s biggest 2017 disappointment. A 9-7 campaign was followed by one marred by shoddy defense, injuries, persistent kicking woes and off-field issues.

MORE: NFL playoff-clinching scenarios in Week 17

Although the excitement surrounding the Bucs following their "Hard Knocks" preseason appearance makes this year’s failings even more pronounced, the Bucs aren’t the only team to regress in a head coach’s second year. Of the five debuting in that role on a non-interim basis in 2016, Philadelphia’s Doug Pederson is the lone one guaranteed a better record from the previous season.

The others:

— Tennessee’s Mike Mularkey would match last year’s 9-7 record with a win Sunday against Jacksonville. A loss that would likely keep the Titans out of the playoffs again and place him squarely on the hot seat entering the 2018 offseason.

— The best Cleveland can finish under Hue Jackson is 1-15 for a second straight season. Yippee!

— Miami’s Adam Gase went from 10-6 to 6-9 in a season mitigated by injuries, shaky personnel decisions and a series of unexpected happenings that ranged from bizarre (linebacker Lawrence Timmons going AWOL on the eve of the season-opener against the Los Angeles Chargers) to a real-life "Playmakers" script (the offensive line coach being forced to resign after getting exposed snorting a white powdery substance on video).

— The fourth coach is Ben McAdoo, who is already gone from the New York Giants after the Eli Manning debacle. The G-Men have slipped from 11-5 to 2-13 and headed toward a top three draft pick.

In the big picture, there were 13 head coaches between 2000 and 2015 whose teams failed to post a winning record in a head coach’s second year after being above .500 in the first. Only one of them — Sean Payton in New Orleans — ultimately won a Super Bowl. Detroit’s Jim Caldwell, Dallas’ Bill Parcells and the Gruden-led Buccaneers later rebounded with playoff appearances but produced zero postseason wins.

For the remaining nine coaches, a step back in Year Two was their first step out the door.

MORE: Best, worst matchups for NFL playoff teams

So after spelling out the case for making a change, what compels the Bucs to believe Koetter can right their trademark pirate ship? It all starts at the game’s most important position — the one that helped undo Herm Edwards in Kansas City, Mike Munchak in Tennessee, Jim Haslett in New Orleans, and both Tony Sparano and college football god Nick Saban in Miami — with the most important player on the Bucs roster.

Quarterback Jameis Winston.

Koetter was hired by Lovie Smith as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator to develop Winston as the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft. Koetter and his staff did such a good job that he became a strong head coaching candidate elsewhere entering the 2016 offseason. Afraid of undoing the progress made, Bucs brass fired Smith and promoted Koetter to head coach.

While there are valid knocks on Koetter overall since then, Winston’s ongoing evolution isn’t one of them.

Before a Week 5 game against New England in October, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick praised Koetter by saying the work done with Winston in his first two seasons “is, probably, arguably as good as any coach has done with any quarterback in the first two years of a career.”

“Some of that’s the player,” Belichick continued. “But certainly, a lot of that’s the guy coaching him.”

Winston would proceed to throw for 334 yards against New England’s defense only for Tampa Bay to lose 19-14 on the game’s final play when rookie tight end O.J. Howard made the wrong decision on what proved an incomplete option route at the Patriots' goal line.

Tampa Bay’s season went downhill from there with four more losses and Winston getting sidelined by a shoulder injury. While the Bucs haven’t won since his return in Week 13, Winston has the NFL’s highest passer rating (114.5) and third-best completion percentage (72) in December.

If the relationship between Koetter and Winston “is not in a good place” as reported earlier this month by NFL Network, the latter sure has a funny way of showing it.

“I rolled in the parking lot at 5:30 this morning, pitch dark, and guess whose truck was already in the player’s parking lot. Jameis Winston,” Koetter told co-host A.J. Hawk and me Wednesday on SiriusXM NFL Radio. “It’s the players’ day off on Tuesday and I roll in nice and early. Guess who’s already there. Jameis Winston.

“The guy is a grinder. He’s constantly studying tape. He’s meeting with the coaches. We’ve had guys in and out of the lineup and he’s meeting with the new guys. He’s trying to get everyone on the same page.”

MORE: Mitchell Trubisky's rise to franchise QB is well-timed for Bears

Koetter acknowledges that Winston must continue working on reducing turnovers and not letting his drive to win spur excessive emotional outbursts like it did last week against Carolina and earlier this season in New Orleans. But nobody is quicker to defend Winston from what he perceives as unfair criticism about his leadership and maturity than Koetter.

“The things he’s doing for a guy his age and experience are far beyond his years,” Koetter said of the 23-year-old Winston. “When you look at the tape, Jameis does a lot of good things. There are always things that have to get better.”

Koetter is the best guy to oversee that process for several other reasons.

As his rookie contract moves closer toward expiring, Bucs ownership must decide whether to offer Winston the kind of mega-deal that other young quarterbacks such as Andrew Luck, Derek Carr and Russell Wilson have signed. The evaluation process is far easier if Winston remains in the same offensive system, especially since he is undoubtedly making strides under Koetter and there are no guarantees he wouldn’t regress trying to master another playbook.

Such stability becomes even more important considering Winston is under NFL investigation after being accused of groping an Uber driver. If the league finds its personal conduct policy was violated and levies a perquisite six-game suspension, it will be far easier for Winston to pick up where he left off upon his return than trying to excel in a new scheme.

That Tampa Bay has spent a decade changing head coaches and general managers every couple of seasons without success is another strong argument for keeping continuity with Koetter and ostensibly Licht for one more year in hopes they get things right.

Koetter allowed this week that conjecture surrounding his fate has become a personal distraction as Tampa Bay prepares to wrap its season Sunday against New Orleans.

“One thing I’ve found over 35 years of coaching: Speculation is all fun and games when you’re talking about somebody else,” Koetter said. “But when they’re talking about you … You don’t control what everybody says so you try to focus on the job at hand and move full-speed ahead.”

That’s what the Bucs should be doing with Koetter.

Alex Marvez can be heard from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. ET Friday and 9 a.m. to noon ET Saturday on SiriusXM NFL Radio.