THE appalling attacks in Paris on November 13th are a brutal reminder of the danger of terrorism to the West, mainly from Jihadist groups such as Islamic State (IS). Yet terrorism is a threat everywhere. The day before the atrocities in Paris, two bomb blasts killed 37 people in Beirut. On November 17th a suicide bomber blew up a market in northern Nigeria, leaving at least 36 people dead. Last year 32,700 people were killed in attacks worldwide, nearly twice as many as in 2013. And this year the toll may turn out to be even higher.

Most of the deaths last year (and every year) are in the Middle East and Africa—not the West. Iraq, Nigeria, Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan together account for three-quarters of the global total. Western countries suffered under 3% of all deaths in the past 15 years. Boko Haram, a jihadist group that operates mainly in northern Nigeria and Cameroon (and recently pledged affiliation to Islamic State), was responsible for over 6,600 deaths according to the Institute for Economics and Peace (which excludes military targets). That is more than any other group in the world—even IS. Nigeria has also been plagued by a new outfit in the south, the Fulani militants, which did not even exist until 2013. The increased bloodiness of both groups contributed to a quadrupling of deaths to 7,500 in 2014, the largest rise ever seen in one country. If deaths caused by war were counted, IS is far more deadly than any other organisation, even using the most conservative estimates.

The Paris attacks and the downing of a Russian airliner in Egypt killed more than 100 people each. Such lethal attacks are rare but are increasing. Last year, there were 26 compared with a handful in 2013. Most were carried out by IS, and most occurred in Iraq. And terrorism is spreading. 67 countries saw at least one death last year compared with 59 the year before. The number of plots by jihadist groups against Western countries has leaped, in particular since September 2014 when an IS spokesman called for its followers to attack those Western countries involved in military efforts in Syria and Iraq. Most plots have failed, though a growing number have been successful. But the terrorists only need to carry out one big plot to succeed.

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