Deandre Ayton made perfect sense as the potential 2018-19 NBA Rookie of the Year. He was the top pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, he projected to record a double-double in his first season, and there didn’t seem to be much in his way. I definitely saw Luka Doncic and Trae Young as threats before the season tipped off, but I’m not sure in my wildest dreams I expected this. Ayton is on one of the worst teams in the NBA, but he’s still been fantastic. He’s improved as the year has gone on and has put up that predicted double-double (16 points and 10 rebounds per game). He just hasn’t displayed any range on his jumper, and his presence hasn’t actually lifted the terrible Suns. The latter isn’t something you have to worry about when looking at Doncic or Young. Both have been elite scorers in the league and have also been fantastic playmakers. It was Doncic that had been delivering all of the iconic moments against stiff competition, though. He easily had the NBA Rookie of the Year award locked up if you look at how dominant he was during the first half of the year. The key word there, of course, could be had.

Luka Doncic a Lock for Rookie of the Year?

Back in January, the best NBA betting sites pegged Luka Doncic as the clear favorite. As in, it wasn’t even close. BetOnline handed Doncic a disgusting -1200 price back on January 4th, and few sites have updated their ROY odds since. I get why. Doncic was such a disturbing favorite that it made no sense to keep updating the wager. He was the clear winner, and nobody was really taking chances on the guys behind him. If nobody was betting on the Rookie of the Year contenders other than Doncic, and if Doncic himself wasn’t worth wagering on, then what was the point? Seriously, this race was so decided and so certain that MyBookie.ag called it way in advance, signaling anyone that previously placed bets on Doncic were officially winners. Ladies and gentlemen, @luka7doncic brings new meaning to the term “lock bet.” pic.twitter.com/8gdx5ktXTn — Brad Townsend (@townbrad) February 13, 2019 That was bold, to be sure. But MyBookie took it one step further. On top of paying out over $150,000 on winning Luka Doncic wagers, the site also promised to double the payout for any winner not named Doncic.

Latest NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

I’m sure this ends up being amazing free publicity for one of the best basketball sportsbooks, while it also proves they’re not afraid to pay out big winnings. But it also has to show you just how good Doncic was up until January. As fate would have it, though, the Dallas Mavericks blew up their roster and traded away a slew of useful weapons that aided Doncic’s awesome rookie year. Doncic still put up big numbers, but that led to Dallas falling further out of the Western Conference playoff picture. Add in a lingering knee injury, and Doncic slowly slid away from that sure thing MyBookie and everyone else felt he was. Injury and a guy’s team failing to make the playoffs isn’t enough to get me off that bet. Trae Young handing in one of the greatest second-half runs (combined with a plenty fine first half) certainly could, however. Of course, that all depends on who you ask and when. If it’s the FanDuel Sportsbook on March 25th, they’d hand in the most updated NBA Rookie of the Year odds with Doncic still light years ahead of Trae Young. I’m sure just about anyone paying attention to the NBA these days would call this a two-man race, but this is not the price of wager that’s allowing even the slightest possibility of anyone but Doncic winning ROY. Check out the NBA Rookie of the Year odds per FanDuel Sportsbook. Luka Doncic -10000

Trae Young +1100 I would have been fine with these NBA Rookie of the Year odds a month or two after the season started. Going into the All-Star break, I was ready to write Young and everyone else off, too. Doncic’s game is a ton of fun. He’s a good-hearted kid with plenty of swagger and appreciation for the game. He has the stat line of an All-Star and by all accounts has the lead in this race. But it’s a lot closer than anyone cares to admit. And considering the pricing we’ve seen, bets on Trae Young — whether they were made early in the year or within the past five minutes — have a (realistic) shot at returning insane profit.

Why Trae Young Can Win Rookie of the Year

I totally understand if people think Doncic will win. I get it if they’re just pulling for him, too. I also feel for anyone who bet big money on Doncic and now has to sweat out this Trae Young surge. But I don’t at all see the logic in why the pricing gap is still so obscene. How are we grading out rookies and ultimately voting in regards to this award? Based on history, team success can’t play a huge hand in it. It might be a deciding factor in an especially close race, but let’s consider the obvious: the teams in position to land potential Rookie of the Year candidates were trash the year before. Getting one great player doesn’t turn a terrible team into a title contender overnight. Most teams don’t even make the playoffs after drafting inside the lottery — let alone inside the top five. Luka Doncic did lift a bad Mavericks team up for a good portion of the year. They were competitive, he delivered some iconic moments, and they scored some big wins. Doncic even went nuts in a huge blowout win over the Golden State Warriors not too long ago. But this can’t be a half-of-a-year race. It can’t be about one aspect of the game, and it can’t be just about whose team had the better record. It needs to be everything, and if we can agree it’s a closer race than any recent Rookie of the Year odds might suggest, it arguably needs to go down to the wire. I don’t need to go back and forth when it comes to Trae Young and Luka Doncic. A simple comparison by the numbers tells us a lot. Stat Trae Young Luka Doncic Minutes Per Game 30.9 32.2 Points Per Game 19 21.1 Assists Per Game 7.9 5.9 Rebounds Per Game 3.6 7.6 Shooting % 41.6 42.5% 3PT % 33.1 32.7% True Shooting % 53.6 54.4% Assist % 38.9 31.4% Plus/Minus -4.1 -1.7 Offensive Rating 107.1 106.8 Defensive Rating 113 109.7 Net Rating -5.9 -2.9 Double Doubles 28 22 Triple Doubles 1 7 If you look at the year as a whole, this race feels a lot closer than the top NBA betting sites suggest it is. Doncic is leading in numerous categories after starting out of the gates better, but the gap has narrowed significantly. Part of that is because Trae Young has been on an epic heater, putting up over 25 points, 8.8 dimes, and 4.6 rebounds per game since the All-Star break. Young has been red-hot as a shooter, too, hitting at a 45% clip from the floor and 40% from long range. The point here isn’t to say that Trae Young is for sure going to upset Luka Doncic and win Rookie of the Year. It’s that this is a closer race than anyone is letting on, and it’s not impossible. The data above shows how tight things are over the course of the entire season. While Doncic does still lead the way in some key categories, Young has posted more assists, a better offensive rating, more double-doubles, a better three-point percentage, a far better assist percentage, and has also enjoyed the superior second half.

Who Will Win NBA Rookie of the Year?