Proposed Federal SNAP Cuts

Trump’s budget is truly historic in proposing a cost-shift to the states for SNAP. The service was designed for the federal government to bear the full burden of the cost, unlike other services like Medicaid and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families that operate under cost-sharing agreements. As such, many state governments do not have the overhead necessary to absorb the costs. Arizona is one such state.

Trump proposes that each state bear 25% of the cost of SNAP. The federal government spent about $1.4 billion on SNAP in Arizona in federal fiscal year 2016. This means that after the cost-shift is fully phased in, Arizona would have to pay $351 million each year to sustain the program at current levels. The full potential 10-year cost is $2.4 billion to the state — Although it could be higher or lower depending on economic growth and how hard the next recession hits at-risk families. Nevertheless, it acts as a solid baseline to judge potential state budgetary impacts.[6]

Unfortunately, Arizona does not have the money to absorb such costs since the projected surplus in fiscal year 2018 is only $38 million. Nor will state revenue growth save us. Our state’s economic performance against the U.S. compared to historic averages is much worse, which means natural revenue growth will not increase at the levels needed to pay for SNAP. Finally, there are many competing priorities at the state capitol, like education and public safety, that also need to be funded at adequate levels. No matter how you frame it, the state would be unable to find the money needed without revenue increases.[7]

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities analysis on Trump’s proposal to eliminate the minimum benefit.

This means that the originally-conceived cost-shift will become a 25% cut. Such a cut could be envisioned in different ways. One could be cutting 240,000 off the program by targeting lower-risk individuals. Another could be reducing the amount given each month. Still another could be putting a first-come, first-serve cap on yearly enrollment. One of Trump’s proposed solutions is removing the minimum benefit, which would take 43,000 mostly elderly and disabled people off the program — Saving just $5.6 million.[6]

The administration claims that the changes will encourage people to seek work and get away from government services. However, his cuts would do the opposite. Since SNAP allows families to technically stay above the poverty level by providing supplemental income, any of these proposals could very well increase poverty levels and prevent people from rising out of poverty. It also ignores the reality that the program is already working extraordinarily well and efficiently. Trump’s claims are divorced from reality and reflect an ideological commitment rather than sober analysis of the numbers.

I hope that Arizona’s congressional delegation will take a hard stance against these short-sighted cuts so that our state’s vulnerable are not left to the wayside. There are many ways to reduce federal fiscal costs without impacting the well-being of millions of Americans — This is not one of those ways and such cuts would increase poverty in Arizona and the country at-large.

Ethan Clay is an economic policy analyst with the Arizona Center for Economic Progress and Children’s Action Alliance, which both advocate for policies that benefit the social and economic future of Arizona.