In San Francisco, initial projections said hospitals in the Bay Area would be severely overwhelmed by the end of March and into April. That didn’t happen. Instead, hospitals in the region have avoided the anticipated surge of critically ill patients. Projections released by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show the peak of the virus has moved to the end of April, allowing California’s health care system to catch up with the pandemic — which is the entire point of slowing the spread.