Oregon is nearing its peak for the novel coronavirus, updated projections from University of Washington researchers show.

It’s yet more evidence that by following Gov. Kate Brown’s social distancing restrictions, Oregonians have helped the state escape the worst of the global pandemic -- as long as people continue to stay home.

The new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows Oregon’s hospital system is capable of handling coronavirus patients. But it still predicts 171 Oregonians will die by May 27. It projects a peak on April 20, with about five deaths. Because of uncertainties inherent in modeling, the peak could see as many as 10 deaths in a day -- and potentially more. Between 145 and 209 total could die.

To date, 30 Oregonians have died and 1,132 have tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

The researchers’ state-by-state projections, which have been cited in White House briefings, are inherently uncertain and are constantly being updated. And while they bode well for Oregon, they presume that current social distancing measures continue. State health officials have said cases could spike in as little as a week if restrictions ended.

The IHME projections for the United States are still staggering and grim. They project a death toll by August of 81,766 people – with a range possible between 49,000 and 136,000. The researchers anticipate an April 15 peak that sees 3,100 people dying in a single day, taking a severe toll on the nation’s hospitals, with a bed shortage of more than 36,000.

The strain on Oregon’s hospital system is projected to be far lower than in the researchers’ original forecasts and to peak far sooner. The new figures show 227 hospital beds needed, well within the state’s capacity, as well as 47 ICU beds. Since the outbreak began, at least 404 Oregonians have been hospitalized. The number who have recovered is unclear.

The new analysis benefits from “a massive infusion of new data,” Christopher Murray, director of the IHME, said in a news release.

Earlier projections from the IHME projected Oregon seeing a large influx of cases in the next month, needing about 1,000 hospital beds in May for coronavirus patients. That was a far gloomier scenario than one envisioned in another model that state health officials have used. The revisions bring them far closer together.

The UW modelers said they’ve been able to create more precise estimates in part based on seeing peaks in an increased number of countries around the world.

“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” Murray said.

The IHME’s figures aren’t perfect. They show Oregon needing 40 ventilators at its peak. That’s how many the Oregon Health Authority said were in use last week. But the number of ventilators reported to be in use by COVID-19 patients doubled to 80 over the weekend, after the state resumed reporting the figure. The original number was not accurate, authority director Patrick Allen told reporters Monday.

Dr. Dean Sidelinger, the state epidemiologist, told reporters the total number of people being hospitalized with COVID-19 symptoms continues to increase, but does not appear to be accelerating.

“We do think the social distancing measures are helping us keep cases down,” Sidelinger said Monday.

State health officials expect an update later this week to modeling they’ve been receiving from the Bellevue-based Institute for Disease Modeling. Its most recent projections showed a sharp drop in transmission of COVID-19 in Oregon, by as much as 70%.

An Oregon Health and Science University researcher is currently analyzing hospitalization data in Oregon to see whether the effects of Brown’s March 16 school closure are reflected in hospital admissions. By next week, the effects of the March 23 stay-home order should also be evident.

— Rob Davis

rdavis@oregonian.com

503.294.7657; @robwdavis

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