Bay Area cities’ homicide rates show striking drop

Richmond officers enter a home where a burglary in progress was reported. Richmond has seen a precipitous drop in homicides in the past few years, to a low of 11 in 2014. Police have worked hard on stopping violence between two particular groups. less Richmond officers enter a home where a burglary in progress was reported. Richmond has seen a precipitous drop in homicides in the past few years, to a low of 11 in 2014. Police have worked hard on stopping ... more Photo: Michael Short / Special To The Chronicle Photo: Michael Short / Special To The Chronicle Image 1 of / 14 Caption Close Bay Area cities’ homicide rates show striking drop 1 / 14 Back to Gallery

Homicides in the Bay Area’s biggest cities fell in 2014 to a level that hasn’t been seen since 2001 and has rarely been achieved in the past four decades, according to a Chronicle analysis.

Though the new year opened with an upswing in gun violence, including a quadruple homicide Jan. 9 in San Francisco and a double killing Friday in Oakland, the broader trend is unmistakable.

The 223 killings in the region’s 15 most populous cities in 2014 marked a 28 percent drop from two years earlier and a 38 percent plunge from 2007 — a time when a rising death toll caused widespread concern.

San Francisco, where 100 people were slain in 2007, had 45 killings last year. Oakland saw 80 homicides, down from a recent peak of 145 in 2006. Richmond reported just 11 homicides, a figure not seen since 1971.

Santa Clara hasn’t witnessed a single slaying since 2011.

Police leaders and criminologists say they aren’t certain what is behind the historic dip in homicides, which mirrors state and national trends and comes even as California thins overcrowded prisons under court order.

Theories include improved policing strategies that focus on the highest-risk offenders, increased use of video and other technology, stronger community programs, and lessening tension related to street-level drug dealing.

But law enforcement officials aren’t celebrating. Homicide trends have been tenuous over the years, and many neighborhoods remain scarred by violence.

“Obviously, it’s always good when there’s a dip in homicides, but at the end, we still had 45,” said Officer Grace Gatpandan, a San Francisco police spokeswoman.

“One homicide is one death too many, and we’ve got a lot of work to do. It’s little solace to those who lose a member of their family,” said new San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, who spent New Year’s Day on a ride-along with officers.

Underscoring continued concern over violent crime in the region, Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf also spent her first day on the job with police.

In San Francisco, District Attorney George Gascón, a former police chief, credited the decline in killings to Compstat, a data-driven system that holds police commanders accountable for crime trends in their areas, as well as changing demographics.

“I think the city has become older, it has become much more affluent,” Gascón said. “Those things have also had an impact in the way that violent crime sort of manifests itself.”

Alameda County District Attorney Nancy O’Malley said her office’s gang unit has worked closely with Oakland police to cut violence. After Oakland had 127 killings in 2012, then-Police Chief Howard Jordan blamed a pair of groups, the Money Team and the Case gang, that had mushroomed — and that then became prime targets for police efforts.

“As more police are hired and trained, a stronger positive presence in the community correlates with strengthened public safety,” O’Malley said.

Last year was the second straight in which killings in Oakland dropped. Still, as in 2013, several high-profile slayings drew nationwide attention, including the shooting death of a mother of four during a road-rage attack.

Some of the outrage generated by such slayings brought tips from citizens, which allowed police to crack cases, said Oakland homicide Sgt. Rob Rosin.

“For sure, it’s people in the community coming forward to assist us, as well as our partners in law enforcement, such as the FBI and the U.S. Marshals Service,” Rosin said.

Paul Chan, 54, who manages several properties near 45th and Bancroft avenues in East Oakland — the scene of a number of homicides in past years — said he has seen the atmosphere change for the better. He cited an exodus of drug dealers and prostitutes.

“These couple blocks are OK because some of the people selling drugs around here are gone,” Chan said. “It’s all good people now. Before, some bad people. They all got kicked out.”

San Jose’s 32 slayings were down from 44 in 2013, but were still relatively high historically. The city takes pride in being one of the nation’s safest big cities, but has grappled with the departure of officers, some of whom say budget cuts and pension reforms have hampered crime-fighting efforts.

Perhaps the most eye-opening drop was achieved in Richmond, population 107,000, which like Oakland has put a heavy focus on stopping violence between two groups, one in the center of the city and the other along the northern border.

The city’s 11 homicides in 2014 were a far cry from the 47 in both 2007 and 2009. In 1991, Richmond suffered 62 killings, gaining national notoriety along the way.

“The service providers and faith-based community are doing a lot of the heavy lifting in crime reduction,” said Richmond police Capt. Mark Gagan.

The figures examined by The Chronicle do not include killings that authorities deemed to be acts of self-defense, including police shootings.

Franklin Zimring, a professor at UC Berkeley School of Law who studies crime trends, cautioned against identifying any specific causes for the drop in homicides, noting that the figures mark a “regression toward an earlier period” of fewer killings.

“They’re good numbers — they’re wonderful news in terms of feeling less at risk,” Zimring said. “They are not clearly indicating that something particular worked. The person who reads Bay Area homicide numbers should be a cheerful agnostic.”

Researchers at the California Department of Justice have not yet examined the 2014 numbers. However, they recently released a breakdown of the 2013 killings statewide that gave a picture of the nature of the problem.

Among the findings were that 82 percent of homicide victims and 89 percent of those arrested for murder were male.

Motives varied, with 33 percent of killings stemming from gang activity, 30 percent from an argument, 9 percent from domestic violence and 7 percent from robberies. But guns were a common theme: In 72 percent of the cases where a weapon was identified, that weapon was a firearm.

The most pronounced drop in homicides involved Latino victims. Factoring in population growth, their statewide homicide rate dropped 40 percent from 2004 to 2013, according to the state data.

Crime experts cautioned that homicide figures may not paint a complete portrait of any city’s challenges.

Homicide rates can fluctuate for reasons that can be hard to quantify — and might not align with other crime trends. For example, although Oakland homicides have plummeted since 2012, the number of carjackings, home invasion robberies and auto burglaries has increased.

For some residents, property crimes may be more of a barometer of safety.

Robert Weisberg, a criminal justice expert at the Stanford Law School, said that the homicide trends are surprising nevertheless.

“It may be odd to put it this way, but the key thing about the decrease is the absence of an increase,” he said, “ because there has been some fear that the national and local homicide decreases of the last 20 years might reverse.”

Henry K. Lee is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: hlee@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @henryklee