By the reverse logic of the current election season, Cynthia Nixon ought to win the Democratic primary race on Sept. 13, to become the next governor of New York.

She is, after all, a woman who has never run for anything, up against a male incumbent who has a lot more money to spend. She is more progressive than that incumbent — Andrew M. Cuomo — and the polling mechanisms that have directed the conventional wisdom toward a misguided certainty for two years now favor him.

As Ms. Nixon put it in a tweet earlier this week, so many others have come unexpectedly from behind recently, that her destiny is perhaps obvious:

“Dana Balter: Down in the polls by 13 percent and won by 25 percent. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Down by 36 percent. Won by 15 percent. Andrew Gillum: Polling at 16 percent. Got 34 percent. Ayanna Pressley: Down by 13 percent. Won by 18 percent. It’s our turn.”

Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, of course, won a celebrated victory over Joseph Crowley. Dana Balter, a doctoral candidate in public policy, in June won the Democratic primary to represent the 24th Congressional District in upstate New York with more than 62 percent of the vote. Her challenger had the support of the national party.