t was a humiliation, the likes of which Angela Merkel had never experienced in her thirteen and a half years as chancellor of Germany, and as the undisputed supremo of the EU's dominant political family, the center-right European People's Party.

With EPP leaders, including at least six of the party's other prime ministers and presidents, arrayed before her at the neoclassical Academy Palace in downtown Brussels on Sunday afternoon, Merkel laid out a plan for filling the EU's top leadership posts that would install Frans Timmermans, a Social Democrat, as Commission president, the bloc's top job, instead of the EPP's own nominee, German MEP Manfred Weber.

What she proposed would amount to a stunning climbdown for the conservative party that has long commanded the leading role on the EU stage and currently holds the presidencies of the European Commission, Council and Parliament. Under Merkel's plan, which she had agreed with a small group of other leaders on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, the EPP would have been left with only the Parliament post and the job of high representative for foreign policy.

Party bigwigs, including some of her fellow national leaders, were livid. And they quickly gave voice to their rage at the Sunday EPP meeting ahead of an EU summit — complaining the deal had been thrust upon them with no consultation, and that they would not support it. No one rose to her defense.

“Not a single intervention in favor," said one senior EPP member. "People were very angry.”

"It’s fair to say there’s a lot opposition to the proposal that was made in Osaka from the EPP’s point of view" — Leo Varadkar, Irish prime minister

Merkel, the senior EPP member said, arrived "thinking that it was a little gathering, and that the Osaka agreement would be agreed." Instead, "everybody said no ... It was impossible."

The official said Merkel had not consulted with her fellow EPP leaders before sealing the deal in Japan. "There was no organization and it was all out of the blue," the official said, adding "Merkel was highly surprised at the lack of agreement."

Adding kerosene to the fire was the suggestion that Mariya Gabriel, a relatively junior and little-known former member of the European Parliament from Bulgaria who has served for the last couple of years as the EU's digital commissioner, could be elevated to the high representative post.

"Mariya Gabriel? High rep who?" the senior EPP member said, his voice still shaking with rage and disbelief hours later. "That was a turning point."

EPP members would go on to question Merkel's motives, saying she had agreed to a deal that was only good for Germany, for her personally, because it would help relations with the Social Democratic Party, her coalition partner in Berlin, and, to a lesser degree, good for Weber who, under the Osaka plan, was envisioned to become Parliament president for a double-term of five years.

The opposition was so fierce that Merkel left the EPP meeting early and headed to the Council's Europa building to huddle with Council President Donald Tusk, French President Emmanuel Macron and others, on how to find a path forward. EPP members continued to seethe after she left.

"It’s fair to say there’s a lot opposition to the proposal that was made in Osaka from the EPP’s point of view," Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said, arriving at the Council summit. "The vast majority of the EPP prime ministers don’t believe that we should give up the presidency of the Commission quite so easily, without a fight.”

New landscape

ow Merkel and the EPP ended up in such a mess — the chancellor badly weakened and the party deeply splintered — is a case study in veteran leaders failing to recognize a changed political landscape and failing to grasp the ramifications of the European Parliament election in May, in which turnout surged above 50 percent for the first time in 25 years, but where voters also made clear their distaste for the status quo.

The center-right EPP, and its center-left counterpart, the Party of European Socialists — the longtime mainstays of the EU political system — together lost 70 seats in the election, while liberals, Greens and populists gained a combined 99 seats. The EPP still finished first, convincing many of its members that it still holds a rightful claim to the Commission presidency, but it was left diminished, controlling a narrowed plurality.

Despite its first-place finish, the party that has long run the EU is now a minority within the expected pro-EU majority coalition — a coalition that would be more diverse than in previous years. Thanks to the arrival of Macron's centrists and the Greens, the coalition would also be more progressive, making it close to impossible for the EPP to claim to be its natural leader.

Many conservatives still don't seem able or willing to accept the changes. Yet the new math in Parliament means that the center right and center left can no longer call the shots. It also means that the process of selecting the new slate of EU leaders would be far more difficult than before. The Socialists and liberals soon joined forces to make clear that they would not back Weber for the Commission presidency — but the conservatives dug in their heels not only for the position, but for Weber as the man to fill it.

Tusk and his team asked Merkel to sort out the problem that seemed to be obstructing any progress.

Weber, the German leader of the EPP group in the European Parliament and a senior official in Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) party, was heavily criticized for his lack of high-level executive experience. For decades, the Commission presidency has gone to a former head of government or ex-minister. In previous cycles, the EPP might still have been able to muscle someone with Weber's profile through. But not this time.

Weber tried to convene fellow leaders in Parliament for dinner on the night after the election, to begin negotiations on mapping out the road ahead. But the other political groups refused, unwilling to allow him or the EPP to take charge of the process and, by extension, put Weber in pole position to lead the EU. What followed was nearly four weeks of difficult negotiations in Brussels.

A new group comprising the liberals and Macron's centrists, Renew Europe, descended into in-fighting. An effort to develop a joint policy program among pro-EU parties in Parliament also stalled, as the Greens — unlikely to win much in the contest for top jobs — dug in their heels on their priorities, particularly in pushing for more aggressive efforts to fight climate change.

A European Council summit on June 21, the leaders' first real meeting to deliberate on how to fill the top jobs, ended inconclusively with the heads of state and government failing even to agree on exactly what they had disagreed about.

Macron declared that all three "lead candidates" for the Commission presidency nominated by the major political groups — Weber, Timmermans and the liberal competition commissioner, Margrethe Vestager — had been eliminated from contention.

"They have been taken out tonight, which allows us to relaunch the process," Macron said. Other leaders, including members of the French president's own political family, were stunned, believing that while there was clearly a lack of support for Weber, no decision had been made on the other two.

Leaders scheduled a new summit for June 30, and said discussions would also continue in Osaka, where Tusk, Merkel, Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez all planned to attend the summit of the G20 major economies.

But before the discussions could continue, Tusk and his team asked Merkel to sort out the problem that seemed to be obstructing any progress: the EPP's simultaneous insistence that it retain control of the Commission presidency and that Weber be chosen for the job. Other leaders told Merkel the EPP had to choose: It could probably have the job but not for Weber, or it could fight for the Bavarian and end up in a lengthy battle that it is likely to lose.

Schulz scrambles

artin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, listened to EU leaders after that first major summit on choosing a Commission president and didn't like what he heard.

The Spitzenkandidat, or "lead candidate," process that he helped create in 2014 seemed all but dead. Under that system, pan-European political groups nominate lead candidates for the European Parliament election who were also their nominees for the Commission presidency.

But the Parliament, which Schulz had presided over for five years, failed to rally round a single candidate after the election. Each political group was sticking to its own candidate, and none had a strategy to win. And the European Council couldn't agree on a nominee either.

"EPP is split between Merkel vs. the rest; and, roughly, old and new members are clashing" — An EU diplomat

Meanwhile, the parallel process of policy negotiations among leaders in Parliament also hadn't amounted to anything. Parliament was about to lose what Schulz, who ran as the Socialists' first Spitzenkandidat in 2014, had fought hard to achieve: the political leverage to force the Council's hand when it comes to nominating the Commission president, the EU's top executive post.

Schulz, a former leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Germany, is now just an ordinary member of the German parliament — demoted by his colleagues after a failed bid for the chancellorship. But Schulz still has a thick contacts book. He dialed a Portuguese number — Prime Minister António Costa's — to float an idea for overcoming the stalemate, honoring the Spitzenkandidat process — and securing the Commission for the Socialists.

Schulz described his efforts in an interview with POLITICO's Brussels Playbook, with critical parts of his version of events confirmed by Parliament officials, an EU diplomat, a government official and two MEPs from other parties.

Costa, along with Sánchez, had been tapped as a negotiator on the top EU jobs for the Socialists. Together, the Portuguese leader and Schulz devised a plan by which the Socialists would reach out to Weber and offer him a way out of his own cul-de-sac. Weber could swing behind Timmermans as Commission chief, and in exchange, get to be president of Parliament for five years, double the usual term.

Such a move, they argued, would give Weber the chance to portray himself as the guardian of Parliament's interests by making sure a Spitzenkandidat — namely Timmermans — was nominated for the Commission presidency. It would also let Weber avoid a potentially major humiliation: being voted down as Commission president in the Council and then having to secure his parliamentary group's backing for another EPP candidate, perhaps the EU's Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, or Kristalina Georgieva, a former Commission vice president who is now chief executive of the World Bank.

Plus, a five-year term as Parliament president would give Weber, who turns 47 this month, a platform to continue building his political career.

Calculating the numbers, miscalculating the politics

he numbers certainly looked favorable for Timmermans.

The former Dutch foreign minister, now serving as first vice president of the Commission, reached out to Renew Europe and the Greens. Together with his own Social Democrats, Timmermans could command the support of 337 members of the European Parliament — even if he would still need the EPP to reach the necessary 376-vote majority in Parliament.

Weber, on the other hand, could find a majority to defeat Timmermans only with the votes of the far and extreme right — something he had pledged not to do.

Schulz called Weber to tell him the plan ahead of a meeting in Berlin on Wednesday evening organized by Merkel. At that gathering, the German chancellor conferred with Weber, the leaders of her Christian Democratic Union and the CSU, its Bavarian sister party, and EPP President Joseph Daul.

But Weber, in an op-ed Wednesday morning, had doubled down, defending his own bid for the Commission presidency as staunchly as he defended the lead candidate system.

"The chemistry of these meetings — fatigue can sometimes lead to tensions, which happened this morning" — Emmanuel Macron, French president

One EPP official said that Weber had two goals at the Berlin dinner, which he hoped would make it "a key moment" in the race for the Commission presidency: to get Merkel to back the lead candidate process as a matter of principle, strengthening his claim to the job as the nominee of the party with the most seats in Parliament, and to avoid Merkel striking a possible deal with Macron to install Vestager at the Commission, an obvious potential compromise.

Schulz, meanwhile, gave Merkel a nudge toward his plan. He asked the chancellor during question time in the Bundestag on Wednesday if she was still committed to the lead candidate process. Merkel said leaders would have to find a joint candidate for the Commission presidency. “I would like this to be done in the light of the Spitzenkandidaten concept,” she said, adding that the calculation is far more complicated than five years ago.

Despite his public insistence on sticking to his candidacy, the Schulz-Costa compromise seemed to provide an appealing escape hatch for Weber, especially if it came with a five-year term as Parliament president. And, according to EPP officials, Weber, Merkel and Daul agreed the best way forward was to endorse the Socialist proposal, avoid another inconclusive summit, and accept the fact that the EPP's power to simply claim any top job in Brussels has faded.

Three days later, Merkel, speaking from Osaka, said she expected one of the two "lead candidates" for the Commission presidency to win the position, suggesting a potential deal that would install Timmermans in the EU's top job. She had convened with other EU leaders at the G20 — Tusk, Macron, Sánchez and Rutte — and found a tentative deal. The deal seemed to offer something for everyone. For Sánchez, Timmermans is a fellow Socialist. For Rutte, he is a compatriot. And Macron would get the satisfaction of blocking Weber and denying the EPP the top EU job.

Back in Brussels, things began to move with some "first bold contacts," according to a Parliament official, between the Socialist and EPP camps: a phone call between Weber and Costa, and on Friday morning the first bilateral meeting between Weber and Timmermans in weeks. Their discussion focused on the parameters of the deal: Timmermans would have to promise to fight for Weber's five-year Parliament presidency, Weber to vow to get Timmermans support from the EPP. The two met again Sunday morning, shortly after Tusk and his team landed back in Brussels from Japan.

Yet apparently all the discussions — between Tusk and Merkel, between Schulz and Costa, between Weber and Timmermans — and all the planning — over dinner in Berlin and on the sidelines of the G20 in Osaka — had not included an effort to bring along the rest of the EPP, already angry at the prospect of no longer controlling all three of the major EU institutions.

Merkel, speaking in Brussels on Monday after the Council failed to reach a leadership deal and suspended its negotiations, suggested that she had expected other EPP leaders to spread the word.

Meanwhile, Tusk, Macron, Sánchez and Rutte thought Merkel had handled her party's side of things. It was a misunderstanding that would prove highly damaging, effectively scuttling chances for a deal.

Merkel insisted the plan had been hatched not in Osaka but back in Berlin, at her Wednesday night dinner with Weber and other senior conservatives.

“There is no Osaka compromise," she said. "Rather there were results of a discussion between the chairman of the European People’s Party, the lead candidate of the European People’s Party, me and the chairs of the CDU and CSU. And I presented precisely those results in Osaka and others presented them elsewhere — apparently not sufficiently so that there was a consensus.”

“It’s an EPP scandal right now, they are the ones blocking the process” — A high-level European government official

Talk about an understatement.

Even the EPP's officially designated negotiators, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš, complained they hadn't been looped in. Officials said Costa, Rutte, Sanchez and Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel were stunned when Plenković and Kariņš, in a planning meeting on Sunday afternoon, began repeating the EPP's pre-Osaka talking points, insisting that Weber be named Commission president. The two conservatives, apparently blindsided, expressed surprise at the news that Merkel and Weber had already reversed course and surrendered the top job.

Tusk, another senior EPP figure, had expected some opposition to the plan among conservatives. But the anger directed at Merkel in the room at the Academy Palace surprised him.

Many conservatives, it turned out, are far from ready to concede defeat, or to compromise on Weber's candidacy. Deep fissures within the EPP suddenly broke out in public. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker spoke out in support of Timmermans, calling him "capable" and a good listener. But the conservative Budget Commissioner Günther Oettinger tweeted against Timmermans becoming Commission president, saying the EPP had won the election.

Lack of communication and lack of sleep

t’s an EPP scandal right now, they are the ones blocking the process,” a high-level European government official declared on Sunday night.

"They had a go at each other, Kariņš and Plenković were asking Merkel what on earth the [Osaka] proposal was about,” said the official, relaying an account of an encounter between the three.

"EPP is split between Merkel vs. the rest; and, roughly, old and new members are clashing," an EU diplomat said. "In and out, Kariņš, Plenković and Varadkar were kind of the young Turks of the EPP colliding with Merkel."

Still, the willingness of Merkel and Weber to surrender the Commission presidency seemed a concession worth pursuing. Leaders on the European Council on Sunday haggled through dinner, through the night, through sunrise and through breakfast — poring over several permutations, including a shift that would leave the Council presidency in the EPP's hands.

“The app of the night is not Candy Crush, it’s the Voting Calculator!” the high-level European government official said Sunday night while the leaders were talking, a reference to an online tool that simulates voting in the Council.

They took a break, then returned to their talks, but were still deeply divided and far short of a deal. At about 12:15 p.m., with nerves fraying, Tusk finally declared an impasse and suspended the talks, to resume at 11 a.m. Tuesday.

Some leaders said they remain hopeful of a deal, but others said they would virtually have to start from scratch with Timmermans all but eliminated. Macron said the break was badly needed.

"The chemistry of these meetings — fatigue can sometimes lead to tensions, which happened this morning," he said before leaving the Council building. "In these cases we have to have the wisdom to say let’s take a few hours."

The French president said that some participants in the talks had failed to digest the ramifications of the recent election — a clear message to the EPP, including the German conservatives who have long called the shots on the EU stage, and to the party's new guard.

"I think once we’ve slept a bit that we’ll then be willing to find a compromise" — Angela Merkel, German chancellor

“Everyone hasn’t learned the lessons of the political overhaul that happened [in the election]," he said. "Until then, two parties could agree. Now it’s no longer possible. This overhaul means new behavior."

Still, he expressed some optimism. "We saw what didn't work today. We don't need to go through that again. We have to come back tomorrow with one or two concrete scenarios." He added, "I think tomorrow, within a few hours, we can get an agreement."

Merkel also expressed hope. But she suggested that new proposals would be needed that could win a broader consensus among EU leaders.

"With 28 member states, with different ideas, there are many possibilities," she said. "But we didn’t vote on any of these possibilities as it was clear that none of them would have won a majority.”

“We also have to consider if we want to simply outvote big countries, big member states," she continued, in an apparent reference to opposition from Italy and Poland to Timmermans' candidacy.

"That also comes with the responsibility of being in the Council, where we have to work together and want to work together for the next five years.”

Like Macron, she said some sleep would help. "I think once we’ve slept a bit that we’ll then be willing to find a compromise, especially as we would like to reach an agreement before the president of the European Parliament is elected [on Wednesday]," Merkel said.

Where Macron was feisty, Merkel was philosophical — despite a bruising few days.

Asked what could change between Monday and Tuesday to break the impasse, she replied: “If we knew what would change tomorrow, we could have kept going today."

Lili Bayer, Lauren Bishop, Isabella Borshoff, Andrew Gray, Ivo Oliveira, Eline Schaart and Zosia Wanat contributed reporting.