Refusal comes despite default no-deal scenario if any deal negotiated with EU is rejected

Downing Street has refused to confirm that MPs will see a full economic analysis of the impact of a no-deal Brexit before their final vote on departure from the EU, even though such a scenario would happen by default if they rejected Theresa May’s proposals.

May has sought to distance herself from a warning by her chancellor, Philip Hammond, that leaving the EU without a deal could cost £80bn in extra borrowing, which No 10 has stressed comes from preliminary forecasts.

Asked what would happen to the final Treasury analysis of the impact of no deal, May’s spokesman declined repeated requests to confirm that MPs would see it before they vote.

Downing Street has made it clear that if parliament rejected May’s plan, Brexit would still happen but with no deal in place.

Once a deal is reached, “the government will provide parliament with that meaningful analysis on the deal, ahead of the vote”, May’s spokesman said.



Asked if this would also include analysis and forecasts of other scenarios, he said: “I’m not going to get into what the precise nature of the analysis will look like, but once the deal is negotiated, MPs will then be presented with that analysis ahead of the final vote.” Asked if this would be just on May’s deal, he said: “On the deal.”

A decision to not release official analysis of the likely impact of no deal seems likely to prompt criticism that the government is seeking to keep information from MPs and bounce them into backing May’s plan.

The government is in the process of releasing a series of technical notices on the possible impacts for businesses and consumers of a no-deal departure.

The first tranche last week included warnings that consumers would face slower and more costly credit card payments when they bought EU products, and that British citizens living abroad could lose access to payments from their bank accounts.

Brexiteers have lost sight of the greatest free trade prize of all | Rafael Behr Read more

The technical notices do not, however, constitute an overall forecast of the economic impact of no deal. Hammond’s £80bn figure came from separate Treasury forecasts.

Pressed repeatedly on the issue, May’s spokesman declined to confirm that anything more than the analysis of the impact of the preferred deal would be shown to MPs. “The analysis will be set out by the Treasury at the appropriate time,” he said. “I’m not going to get into what the analysis will contain.”

He said that both May and the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, had been clear that they expected a deal: “We are confident that we will negotiate a successful outcome as a result of the ongoing dialogue with the commission, and that we will be presenting a deal to parliament.”

Asked again how MPs could make an informed decision on whether or not to accept May’s deal if they were not told of the potential repercussions of rejecting it, the spokesman said: “I’m not going to hypothesise on how parliament is going to vote or not vote. What I’m saying is, once a negotiated deal has taken place, that will be presented to parliament ahead of the meaningful vote.”