Intel's Atom processors have rocked the global computing market since their release last year, but plans for migration from the existing N270 and N280 parts to the successor Pine Trail platform, are not as clear. The Pine Trail platform consists of the new netbook CPU and southbridge which will reduce Atom to a two-chip system and cut netbook power consumption while increasing performance, but the timing of the platform's rollout has run up against conflicts between the interests of different players in the netbook segment.

Current Atom platforms like Intel's aging Menlow and GN40 use three chips: a CPU, Northbridge/GPU, and Southbridge, while NVIDIA's Ion platform uses only two: Atom and NVIDIA's 9400M Northbridge/GPU. N270's end-of-life notice has been issued, with last orders taken in February and shipments ending in March.

Like Ion, Pine Trail uses only two chips, a 45nm CPU/Northbridge/GPU called Atom N450 and an I/O hub that will probably be fabbed on a legacy process. Although Ion is higher-performing and parsimonious in chip count, it consumes more power than Menlow or GN40, while Pine Trail will use significantly less.

Pine Trail will be more expensive than Menlow; while rumors place a complete Menlow system at $25, and an unbundled N270 at $45, a Pine Trail CPU and southbridge will run a cool $64 in bulk. Although OEMs have had engineering samples of the new system since last month, they're proving skittish about moving to a higher-priced platform in the price-sensitive netbook segment. Global computer shipments are expected to decline year-over-year in 2009, for the first time ever in the history of the world, and the netbook is a bright spot partially because of low prices.

Digitimes reports that for this reason, Intel is delaying Pine Trail until the first half of 2010 to avoid overly disturbing the current market for prior parts. This would have the effect of forcing an OEM transition by EOLing the oldest part in the same quarter the new one is rolled out. The delay, if true, is a confusing disappointment, because Pine Trail is likely to be a marked improvement over the current Atom platforms, one Intel should be eager to bring to market.

The confusion and disappointment may be settled by Intel, which has

announced there is no delay, and that Pine Trail will launch in the

last quarter of 2009. Digitimes still maintains their information is

correct, and that Pine Trail shipments are being delayed until next

year. It's possible that Intel will merely restrict the pipeline of

Pine Trail parts until next year, turning Pine Trail into a boutique

part until then.

Alternately, we might consider the remote possibility that this explanation of the delay is a smokescreen for some kind of technical problem with Pine Trail. Although working samples have been distributed, it's possible that the integration of CPU, Northbridge, and GPU on one die, a die possibly manufactured at TSMC instead of Intel's own fabs, is causing yield trouble for Intel, prompting a delay. The 45nm process is a mature one, so yield trouble wouldn't ordinarily be expected, but GPU integration and a possible new fab could conceivably cause trouble. AMD's similar "bulldozer" project, which also puts the GPU on-die, has already been delayed. Given that next to no information about Pine Trail's GPU has been released, it's hard to say how difficult the integration would be. This remote possibility, which is mere speculation on our part, is also suggested by the seeming urgency of Intel's market war with Ion.

Clarity about the succession of Atom models, and the specifics of the Pine Trail rollout, and its effect on prices, Ion, and performance, will become clear later this year. In the meantime, netbooks will keep flying off the shelves at a rate of a hundred thousand a day.

Update: Intel ombudsman Mooley Eden has announced that "Pine Trail is on schedule. You can quote me on that... The three chip solution down to two chip solution [is] coming this year." It appears that the DigiTimes report of a delay may have been incorrect.