Beltway insiders and the public do share a similar dissatisfaction with the two major parties. Poll finds D.C. elites tepid to tea party

Washington elites have little faith that tea party candidates will be able to bring change and say grass-roots conservatives have been the most negative in spreading their message, according to a new POLITICO poll released Tuesday.

Washingtonians involved in the political or policy process believe overwhelmingly that tea party candidates will not “be able to bring change to Washington.” Only 11 percent of D.C. insiders polled said they thought the tea party could bring change, compared with 77 percent who did not.


Additionally, 33 percent of Washington elites believe tea party candidates have been the most negative during the 2010 campaign; 30 percent said Democrats have been the most negative, while 26 percent pointed to Republicans.

Beyond the Beltway, the view of the tea party is more wait and see, with 42 percent of those polled saying they don’t know if the movement will be able to bring change. An additional 42 percent expressed doubts that the tea party could change Washington, while 17 percent said they believe this new political force could change the nation’s capital.

Get the full poll results

And when asked which party has been the most negative during this campaign, only 15 percent of the general public pointed to the tea party. Thirty-four percent said Democrats have been the most negative, while 23 percent identified Republicans and 28 percent said they did not know.

The poll, the fourth in the six-month “ Power and the People” series, shows a disconnect between how the tea party is viewed in Washington and how it is viewed in the rest of the country.

The survey also shows, however, that Washington elites and the public as a whole share a similar dissatisfaction with the two major political parties. Forty percent of the general public and 44 percent of elites would consider voting for a third-party candidate in the 2012 presidential election.

Forty-one percent of D.C. elites and 28 percent of the rest of the population said they would not vote for a third-party candidate. Sixteen percent of Washington elites and 32 percent of the general public were not sure if they would back a third-party candidate.

But the poll found other signs of division: Those living outside Washington have a much more positive view of how Republicans would perform if they take control of Congress in next month’s elections.

Forty-eight percent of the general public said Republicans would be “very” or “somewhat” effective at implementing their agenda if they gained majorities in both the House and the Senate, while 33 percent said the GOP would be “not very effective” or “not effective at all.”

Washington elites have less faith in Republicans, as 34 percent believe they would be “very” or “somewhat” effective. The more striking number, however, is the 64 percent who said the GOP would not be effective in the majority.

The general public also seems less worried that divided government would grind Washington to a halt. Forty-six percent said that scenario would “allow each party to block the other and make it harder to get things done,” and 29 percent said having divided government would “set checks and balances so only fair decisions are made.”

Among D.C. elites, 63 percent believe that divided government would result in the two parties blocking each other, while 31 percent said it would bring more balance.

While the general public seems to have more faith in tea party candidates and the Republicans who support them, the survey shows that D.C. elites are paying much closer attention to some of the races that will be viewed as a gauge of the tea party’s success.

Asked to describe how closely they are following Christine O’Donnell’s Senate bid in Delaware, half of D.C. elites said they were watching the tea party favorite “closely,” while only 27 percent of the general public said the same. Twice as many Washingtonians (14 percent) than the general public (7 percent) said they were paying “very” close attention to the campaign.

Not surprisingly, Washington elites are also giving the most attention to a number of top political stories.

Forty-eight percent of D.C. elites are keeping a close eye on the dueling rallies of comedians Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert on Oct. 30 in Washington. Only 24 percent of the general public is paying close attention to the rallies.

The same goes for former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel’s bid to become mayor of Chicago. Thirty-eight percent of Washington elites are closely watching that race, compared with 20 percent of the general public.

The general public is, however, paying very close attention to early news on the 2012 presidential election, even if it is not as much as the politics-obsessed Washington elite. Forty-one percent of the general public is paying close attention to the beginning of the 2012 campaign, while 57 percent of D.C. elites said the same.

The Power and the People poll is based on two Internet surveys conducted Oct. 7-13. For the general population data, 1,002 people were surveyed nationwide for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Washington elites are defined in the poll as those who live within the D.C. metro area, earn more than $75,000 per year, have at least a college degree and are involved in the political process or policymaking. Two hundred twenty-five Washington elites were polled, and that sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.53 percent.