For most NFL teams you can bet that one of the most popular players is going to be the backup quarterback. For the average fan, the devil they don't know is frequently preferable to the devil they do even though most NFL backups are a sorry lot. When Aaron Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone last year many pundits attempted to use it as proof that a good backup is essential, even though the injury ultimately didn't cost the Packers one bit in terms of playoffs positioning, and that even the best backup in the league (Note: in 2013 that was quite possible Kyle Orton) was unlikely to have performed much better.

In baseball it's possible for almost any player at any position to add roughly the same amount of value. A pitcher can be as valuable as a 1st baseman, who can be as valuable as a catcher. In football it's completely different. The quarterback is vastly more important than anyone else, and it is much more difficult to find a comparable replacement. The result is that a long-term loss of a starting quarterback is almost always catastrophic for a team. A backup may keep you respectable for a game or two until teams adjust and get tape on the guy, but in general, if you have to go to your backup, you are doomed. The only thing that can really save you (as it did last year) is incomparably incompetent opponents (or a stellar defense). Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that I think backup QB is one of the least important positions in football, unlike Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel who thinks...

Bob also says that the Packers' "biggest need right now is backup" quarterback.

I'm not averse to picking a quarterback in the later rounds as a develop-and-trade project. I think everyone should use the position for this purpose. But that's not what Bob is saying. Except when he is. He's really all over the place here, just try finding a coherent line of reasoning. As usual, he's in quotes, I am not.

Acquiring Brett Favre in 1992 and drafting Aaron Rodgers in 2005 when quarterback wasn't an overarching concern set the Green Bay Packers up for a generation of winning. Now the Packers must try their best to find magic for a third time.

What? Why now? When the Packers drafted Rodgers, Favre was already thirty-six and had a ton of miles on him. Quarterbacks almost never play into their 40s and so even in a best case scenario he only had a few years left. The end of Brett Favre was very much in sight. The current Aaron Rodgers is still in his prime at thirty-one. There is absolutely no urgency to start developing a quarterback for a job that may not open up for another eight years.

Moving along a bit...

In the spring, general manager Ted Thompson will get his next-best chance to take a step toward sustaining two decades-plus of pro football prosperity. If Thompson procures another stellar quarterback to succeed Rodgers, his legacy would be next to impossible to match.

Maybe they could trade that quarterback for some better run defenders or a tight end?

In 2005, Thompson made the ultimate protection pick in Rodgers.

This is a complete mis-characterization of the Rodgers pick. Aaron Rodgers was not protection in case something happened to Brett Favre. Once Aaron Rodgers started falling down the draft board, he became the replacement for Brett Favre. This is McGinn's biggest problem. Having an heir apparent under contract for the future while learning the offense and getting in football shape is a smart plan. Having that guy sitting on the pine for eight years, on the other hand, is a waste of resources.

In 2015, Thompson should make every attempt to do it again.

Maybe this would be worth considering if the Packers were a complete juggernaut with no discernible flaws, but that is simply not the case. They trot out sub-replacement level tight ends every week, and they still boast one of the league's worst run defenses. Moreover, on a team with a lot of resources (properly) invested in their quarterback, it's important to get contributions everywhere else from draft picks.

Thompson has been living on borrowed time at quarterback for too long.

I don't know what this means. But it doesn't seem like a sentence that a Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel employee should write about a team that employs Aaron Rodgers.

The only quarterback he has drafted in the last six years was in the seventh round (B.J. Coleman).

And as we all know, Ted Thompson has no idea what he's doing in the draft.

Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien will be unrestricted free agents in March.

Tolzien seems to draw interest from other teams routinely, but are we really worried that some team is going to give Matt Flynn some kind of exorbitant contract? Most of the teams that would do such a thing (I'm looking at you, Raiders) already have. Also, Matt Flynn isn't any good.

Like most backup quarterbacks, they can't take the Packers where they want to go.

See, Bob agrees.

Rodgers just turned 31, is in the pink of health and, given recent changes in his diet and workout routines, might play into his early 40s. No matter how long Rodgers plays, Thompson can't wait any longer to protect the Packers at the most vital position.

Actually, no, that's not what that means. Having a young star quarterback in his prime means the exact opposite. He can wait like five more years. Like he did with Favre.

They need a talented player, someone with stature, arm strength and smarts.

They also need a Ferrari. And a house with its own movie theater AND bowling alley like on House Hunters International. Man those are cool.

Look, there are like twenty competent quarterbacks in the entire league. There are not enough good starters before we even get into the backup ranks. Guys like that cost money or, if you find them in the draft, they cost you other resources.

Gobs of teams passed on Rodgers, many because they already had a quarterback. Only Thompson, after seeking out and finding that his staff unanimously supported the decision, had the foresight to take a quarterback in the first round when Favre was 35 and still playing superb football.

Rodgers did not fall in the draft because other teams had quarterbacks already. He fell because of scouting. He fell because sometimes the conventional wisdom turns against a player. The Packers did some great homework to see the guy that Rodgers could become, but the Rex Grossman Bears passed on Rodgers. The Jeff Garcia Browns passed on Rodgers. The Griese/Johnson Bucs passed on Rodgers. The Josh McCown Cardinals passed on Rodgers. The Patrick Ramsey Redskins passed on Rodgers. And the Joey Harrington Lions passed on Rodgers. Many other teams passed on Rodgers. It wasn't because they didn't need a quarterback, it was because drafting and missing on a first round quarterback in 2005 could be a team-destroying mistake. With the rookie caps this is not as big of a problem now, but teams still cannot afford to carry huge salaries in positions that never play.

Now the Packers have the luxury of taking a quarterback early on April 30 even though many observers would say they don't need one.

Paul "Many Observers" Noonan.

Such a recommendation comes, of course, without knowing who will be in this quarterback draft class and what the board will look like when it's the Packers turn to pick. Let's say the Packers win the Super Bowl and have the 32nd choice. Would that be too high for a quarterback, a quarterback who might never even play a snap before he's traded or departs as an unrestricted free agent?

McGinn answers his own question here. Is a late first round pick too high for a quarterback who might never play for the team? Yes. Of course it is. In general, it's better to have players who play for your team. Having another high-talent, high priced quarterback on the roster would be like the Brewers giving a huge contract to center fielder who stays in the minors all the time unless Carlos Gomez is hurt.* It's a complete waste. Speaking of complete wastes...

(*Thanks to @akschaaf for the analogy)

The point being that a different non-quarterback pick might be terrible anyway. This is the equivalent of reasoning that you may screw up your job interview tomorrow, so why not get plastered tonight?

Securing protection at the most pivotal position knows no boundaries.

It's so pivotal that 0 NFL teams employ star-level backup quarterbacks.

If Thompson and his people decide a quarterback is the best player, they should take him and then laugh at the doubters.

As previously stated, I have no issues drafting a project quarterback. Bob is angling for Mariota.

During my first decade or so covering the Packers, I was consumed by writing stories on how the franchise could find their next great quarterback. It dominated every off-season and every draft. Then Ron Wolf traded a first-round draft choice for the Atlanta Falcons' unruly third-string quarterback even though Don Majkowski was just 27, two years removed from the Pro Bowl and, in the view of the team's medical staff, fully recovered from rotator cuff surgery.

This is quite the attempt at revisionist history. Ron Wolf was hired in 1991 and there is no indication that he viewed Majkowski as the future, and with good reason. Majkowski spent six seasons in Green Bay and his allegedly stellar 1989 season looks like a huge, volume-based outlier. The fact is that Majkowski was rarely healthy even before the shoulder injury which led to plenty of appearances from Blair Kiel, Mike Tomczak, and Anthony Dilweg. 1989 is the only year Majkowski started 16 games, and while he lead the league in yards, completions, and attempts, he wasn't really very efficient. He was only 14th in DVOA, just behind Bobby Hebert and ahead of Wade Wilson.

Moreover, he was a mobile QB with a questionable NFL arm. Majkowski was a 10th-round draft choice out of Virginia and not much of a prospect. It's likely that Wolf saw the truth of his quarterback situation, and was acting to fix it. It is also worth noting that shoulder injuries were not as easy to treat in 1990 as they are now.

While many of us do have fond memories of Majkowski, and for good reason, comparing him to Favre or Rodgers is a huge insult to both of them. The situation with Wolf, Majkowski, and Favre is simply not like the current situation in any way.

Fans have been spoiled by 23 straight seasons of Favre-Rodgers. "If you don't have one you're looking for one," an executive in personnel for a quarterback-needy NFL team said earlier in the month. "If you have one, you're happy as hell."

And water is wet. Yes, this is obviously true, and if you are lucky enough to have two quarterbacks your best bet is to trade one of them, because you can demand a king's ransom. The worst thing you can do is keep one of them sitting around doing nothing for eight years.

"If we had Aaron Rodgers, he (the team's former coach) would still be here and I'd probably be a GM somewhere. Personally, professionally, things would be different. You get the quarterback thing right, you are set for a long, long time. "Especially with the way the league's going now. It's so imperative that you have a quarterback. The way the league has set the rules, quarterbacks have a chance to play forever. "They're not supposed to get hit. The receivers aren't supposed to get touched. It makes it really easy."

In other words, the league now makes it less likely that quarterbacks will get hurt, which is all the more reason to not invest in a backup.

Geno Smith was a 2nd-round draft pick and Locker was a 1st-rounder. These are exactly the types of players Bob is advocating the Packers take a chance on. It's a weird list in general. Drew Stanton IS a backup quarterback and took over for an injured Carson Palmer. What's the point of including him?

Since the selection of Anthony Dilweg in 1989, the Packers have taken just two quarterbacks in the first three rounds. Rodgers became an all-timer. Brian Brohm was a wasted pick.

Please remember the "first three rounds" thing because this is where the article really loses it. McGinn wants a high pick to back up Rodgers, but at no point does he cite this working out OTHER than with Aaron Rodgers. All of his other examples are late-round picks, and they were all traded before they could do much serious backing up. Matt Hasselbeck was taken in the 6th in 1998. Mark Brunell was taken in the 5th in 1993. Aaron Brooks was taken in the 4th in 1999. Kurt Warner was signed as an undrafted free agent in 1994. So you can invest a bunch of resources for a 50/50 shot early in the draft or you can use the time you have to pick up a project here or there and see what pans out. It's pretty obvious how Ron Wolf liked to handle things.

Now it's high time for Thompson to get back into the quarterback game and remember how Wolf operated during the 1990s when Thompson was at his side.

What did I just say?

Wolf's philosophy regarding quarterbacks was honed from his time in the mid-1970s as the first GM of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Super Bowl-winning coach Jimmy Johnson of Dallas said before the draft in 1993 that he changed his mind about drafting quarterbacks due to the new system of unrestricted free agency that was installed that spring. He didn't want to develop a player behind Troy Aikman, then 26, and lose him after four years. "I was in Tampa for two years and not one quarterback came out of those drafts that amounted to a hill of beans," said Wolf. "You can mess around with any other position but not that one. If you don't have a quarterback you can't play. That stayed with me."

I just wanted to point out that McGinn wrote those last two paragraphs even though they completely contradict his entire point, and just glossed over that fact. EVERYTHING in this article contradicts his points.

At the time, Favre was 23. When Mark Brunell, a quarterback that Holmgren considered a second-round pick, lasted to the fifth, the Packers took him.

Yes. In the 5th. Not in the first three rounds.

"It seemed idiotic not to select a player of that caliber there," Wolf said at the time. "As Mike said, if we can get better at the most critical position in the game, then we should do so."

Any GM is willing to make a value pick at quarterback low in the draft. That's where risk is lowest. This is not controversial.

Brunell threw 27 passes in two seasons before Wolf shipped him to Jacksonville for third- and fifth-round picks. They were used to select fullback William Henderson and special-teamer Travis Jervey, both of whom made the Pro Bowl once.

All-Pro Travis Jervey! The John Kuhn of the 90s. No one objects to developing and then trading a quarterback. McGinn's entire premise is that you should use a high draft choice on a quarterback and then keep him around just in case.

Acting on advice from former scout John Dorsey, the Packers signed Kurt Warner in 1994 as a free agent in lieu of drafting a quarterback.

He was probably taken in the first three rounds of the un-draft though.

They drafted quarterbacks Jay Barker (fifth round) in 1995, Kyle Wachholtz (seventh round) in '96 and Ronnie McAda (seventh round) in '97. All failed. "You hope to hit one," Wolf said. "You hope to hit a Tom Brady."

And if you take a few years and make a lot of late round QB selections, you might! That's a benefit of late draft picks.

The Packers did hit in 1998 with the sixth-round selection of Matt Hasselbeck based on the recommendation of assistant coach Andy Reid. The seventh quarterback taken, Hasselbeck was rated fourth-best by Green Bay. Favre was 29 in 1999 when Wolf struck again with Aaron Brooks in the fourth round. In July 2000, the Packers got a third-round pick from New Orleans for Brooks. In March 2001, they moved up from 17th to 10th in the first round and gained a third-round choice from Seattle for Hasselbeck. Mike Sherman ran the drafts from 2001-'04. He had a different philosophy, drafting only Craig Nall (fifth round) in 2002. Thompson had been on the job for only three months in April 2005 when Rodgers slipped and slipped and slipped all the way to Green Bay at No. 24.

OK, I'm sure everyone gets the point. I feel like I'm beating a dead horse except really, it's Bob beating the horse, and the dead horse he's beating has nothing to do with his travels or the direction he was riding, and is actually camel.

He advocates for drafting a quarterback early, something that Ron Wolf NEVER DID. He then cites Ron Wolf as evidence.

He advocates taking a quarterback high because that is what Thompson did with Aaron Rodgers when Favre was 36. But Rodgers is 31 and McGinn himself even says that any quarterback drafted now may never play.

He advocates taking a quarterback high to backup Rodgers, who was hurt for half of last season. He then cites Ron Wolf's many trades of backup quarterback as evidence. None of McGinn's examples have anything to do with his theory.

There's just one more thing that I need to mention, so let's skip ahead to the quarterbacks McGinn wishes the team already had, like...

The Packers had a first-round grade on Andy Dalton in 2011 but took Sherrod three picks before he went to Cincinnati.

If only the Packers had used their time-traveling powers to see that Derek Sherrod would be a bust while also not using those powers to see that Andy Dalton isn't a first round talent.

The next year, they loved Russell Wilson but went defense with Jerel Worthy and Casey Hayward 25 and 13 picks before Wilson was taken by the Seahawks.

The Packers, like all teams, scout everyone at every position. I'm sure they did "love" Russ, but not at the expense of other needs. Maybe if he'd fallen to the 4th or 5th they would have jumped on him.

Clearly, Thompson has been considering a quarterback high for some time.

No no no no no. Clearly he has not. Just because they love a quarterback or put a high grade on him doesn't mean they've been thinking of drafting him. I'm sure they had a first round grade on Andrew Luck. They never had any intention of trying to draft him (largely because they couldn't), but I am sure they loved him. Nothing about grading players indicates that Thompson has been considering a quarterback high. It indicates they've done their due diligence.

The No. 1 reason to draft a capable quarterback is injury protection. The defeatist attitude that permeated the fan base after Rodgers' injury a year ago was misguided. Great coaches have won with a multitude of backup quarterbacks, but their odds increase the better their backup is.

This is almost always the exception, not the rule. Usually when you have to go to your backup, you lose, and in many cases where this is not true, the reason is that you're built around defense. Do you think Jeff Hostetler was some kind of great backup because he won a Super Bowl? The 1990 Giants had the best defense in the league, littered with All-Pros and future Hall of Famers.

OK, let's move along a bit and wrap this up.

But there's no need for Thompson to center his succession plan on just one player. He probably should start drafting a quarterback every year, preparing them for duty, for trade or for a compensatory pick if lost to free agency.

I actually don't have a huge problem with doing what Ron Wolf did and taking a quarterback basically every year, late in the draft. I don't have a problem with trading redundant assets. But Bob wants to have his cake and eat it too. He wants an All-Pro backup for Aaron Rodgers, AND to trade him for more draft picks. He wants the team to use a high pick on a quarterback AND to draft one every year. You cannot do all of these things, and most of them are a bad idea anyway.

The rare job security enjoyed by Thompson and McCarthy enables them to plan years into the future whereas almost all their contemporaries must worry about next season. The chink in the Packers' armor is backup quarterback.

And run defense and tight end. But yeah, that guy who basically never plays is super important too.

If they get that fixed, the good times might never end.

Nothing says "good times" like Andy Dalton sitting on the bench.