A preliminary proposal by the government to phase out fossil-fuel-based three-wheelers by 2023 and two-wheelers (up to 150 cc) by 2025 has set the cat among the pigeons. It was so far believed that India will have a 100 per cent electric vehicle (EV) fleet in public transport by 2030, and will aim for 40 per cent electrification in personal transport by then. This was laid out by the NITI Aayog in May 2017, by this government in its earlier term. The idea now is to advance the timeline by five to seven years for bikes and three-wheelers. To be fair, it can be argued that mass adoption of EVs can’t happen overnight and to reach the desired EV mix by 2030, one has to begin somewhere. But there are compelling reasons to believe that the government would have done better to advance the deadline for public transport vehicles such as buses, three-wheelers and taxis. These vehicles account for over a third of diesel consumption by the transport sector (trucks, accounting for 40 per cent, are out of the EV regime). If one takes into account the fact that monthly diesel consumption, at over seven million tonnes, is more than thrice that of petrol, the case for beginning with public transport to shift to EVs becomes stronger. Creating the infrastructure and technology might be also be easier to begin with.

The₹10,000 crore FAME II incentive scheme for EVs, which is operational for three years from April 1, 2019, in fact favours public transport by setting aside more than half its funds for e-buses and e-three-wheelers, including e-rickshaws. To this extent, moving the deadline for three-wheelers may still be acceptable. The accelerated deadline is for bikes with engine capacity of up to 150cc. Bikes in this category are predominantly used by the middle class, a price-sensitive market. And this move is being contemplated at a time when the adoption of BS VI technology and higher insurance premiums for two-wheelers are pushing up costs. The revised schedule cuts short the time for use of BS VI technology to just 3-5 years for both two- and three-wheelers after companies complete the massive investments needed for the BS VI switchover. Whether the supply chain or the charging infrastructure to support mass adoption of any class of EVs will be fully up and running by 2023-2025 is a moot point.

However, there is the question of optics. The number of two-wheelers sold annually is in the region of 21 million, against 3.3 million in the case of cars. In smaller cities, two-wheelers are everywhere; they account for 60 per cent of petrol use. Starting with them will send out the message that air quality in cities is a serious matter. However, the production of electricity too should be from clean sources for net emissions to come down.