When Israelis went to bed after yesterday’s election, the biggest surprise was that—contrary to previous campaigns—there had been few surprises. The exit polls had largely mirrored those published days earlier, with the notable exception that Isaac Herzog’s slight lead over Benjamin Netanyahu had become a dead heat.

But Israelis woke up to a different reality. The Labor-Likud tie had morphed into a Likud blowout (30 seats to 24). The “magician,” as Netanyahu was once called for his uncanny ability to escape political crises, had pulled off the most brilliant act of his political career. And the right-wing bloc had increased its Knesset majority from 61 to 67. There are still some votes to be tallied, and a coalition will likely take weeks to form. But last night’s results permit several conclusions about the race and about the state of Israeli politics.

Right-wing voters came out—and came home

Over the past week, as polls showed Herzog opening a lead of three to four seats, Netanyahu waged a wall-to-wall media campaign to convince traditional Likud supporters that they did “not have the luxury to vote for small parties” if they wanted to avoid a “left-wing government backed by the Arabs.” In so doing, he swung sharply to the right, saying that he no longer supported a two-state solution.

The campaign worked. Turnout—apparently fueled by right-wing fear—surged to its highest point since 1999. Likud, whom many party activists feared would drop below the 20-seat mark, finished instead with 30—three more than when Netanyahu swept back into office in 2009. Bibi, who only a year ago flirted with signing away the West Bank in American-led peace talks, won a majority of votes from the settlements.

The bump came mostly at the expense of hard-right Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett, who earlier in the campaign had been polling just behind Netanyahu. The party finished sixth, with eight seats. Bennett, who will turn 43 in a week, is likely to remain a force in Israeli politics for decades. But his hopes of Jewish Home displacing Likud as the dominant force on the right seems increasingly farfetched.