If it is true Wall Street favors Republicans, which is the traditional analysis, then here is a reason for share prices to be falling. John McCain might not carry Texas.

How could that be? Evidently a Texas law requires a political party, in order be on the ballot, to file the names of its presidential and vice presidential candidates at least 70 days before the election. This year, that fell on Aug. 26, before either Senator McCain or Senator Barack Obama was formally nominated.

Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, is demanding that the law be enforced, and that neither major candidate be allowed on the ballot. He did file on time.

I am confident that the two parties will find a way around this problem, and that Texans will be able to vote for either major candidate. The polls show Senator McCain well ahead in Texas.

But what would happen if Mr. Barr prevailed? It is very hard to see how Senator McCain could get 270 electoral votes without getting the 34 from Texas. So that would mean that if Senator Obama did not get that many, the election could be thrown into the House of Representatives, where each state delegation would have one vote. By my count, the Democrats now control 26 state delegations to 22 for the Republicans, with two ties, in Arizona and Kansas.

There would be arguments that state delegations should vote for the man who carried their state, regardless of party affiliation. There would be arguments that the national popular vote should prevail. There could be lots of litigation.

Could we end up with a messier election than we had in 2000? Would the Supreme Court again get to pick the man who will pick the court’s members? Would all this thoroughly alarm foreign investors, whose sales could damage stock and bond prices while the fight was on?

No, it won’t happen. At least we can hope it won’t.

Addendum: My colleague Pat Lyons suggests I failed to consider one possibility, which is that the Texas winner, perhaps Mr. Barr, would seek to cut a deal before the electoral college met to give his electoral votes, and the victory, to one of the candidates. (He’s not sure if that would be legal under Texas law. Anyone know?)