Few would argue with that, but Elway has advised the Colts not to draft him because he would sooner continue his baseball career with the Yankees than sign a contract to play in Baltimore. Until the Colts resolve their problem, either by trading their pick or drafting Elway anyway, the order of selection in the first round will remain uncertain. Even then, there are likely to be other last-minute trades by teams seeking either to improve their drafting positions on the first round or to gain additional picks on a later round or in a future draft.

Two such trades were made in the past few days. Last Friday, the San Diego Chargers picked up a third pick on the first round by giving the San Francisco 49ers their two picks on the second round. And Saturday, the Houston Oilers traded their No. 2 position on the first round for the Los Angeles Rams' No. 3 pick, and the Rams' fourth-round selections this year and next year.

Jockeying for position through trades is part of the fascination of the draft, which this year is regarded as one of the best in a long time. Besides quarterbacks, it is especially deep in quality offensive linemen - because of needs, five of them could go on the first round - running backs, linebackers and defensive secondary players. It is thin in tight ends and kickers. Various scouts, personnel directors and general managers list more than 30 players who could go on the first round.

And there might have been more, were it not for the United States Football League. The new league now has 112 rookies on the rosters of its 12 teams, 76 of whom were regarded as players the N.F.L. would have drafted, according to Carl Marasco, the U.S.F.L.'s director of player personnel. Many N.F.L. officials agree that the new league signed at least five players who would have been selected on the first round in the N.F.L. They are the running back Tim Spencer, who signed with the Chicago Blitz; the running back Craig James of the Washington Federals; the wide receiver Trumaine Johnson of the Blitz, and the two signed by the Philadelphia Star, the running back Kelvin Bryant and the offensive tackle Irv Eatman.

''Without the U.S.F.L.,'' one N.F.L. general manager said, ''our draft would have been unbelievable.'' Still, most N.F.L. teams will be in the position of drafting a player on the first round who, because of team weaknesses, could become a starter in his first season. Teams in need of offensive help may find that especially true.