Hall-of-Fame voters last week received the first preliminary list of candidates for the Class of 2021, and I’d like to share it with you. But I can’t.

The E-mail was marked “confidential.”

What I can share, however, is that one guy in there holds the key to Canton’s doors next year, and it’s not Peyton Manning or Charles Woodson. As most people know, both are eligible for the Hall in 2021, and both are first-ballot cinches.

But then what? Well, then, we get to the power broker.

Calvin Johnson, come on down.

Like Manning and Woodson, the former Detroit Lions’ wide receiver is eligible for the first time in 2021 and could be a first-ballot inductee. Then again, he might not. Which is why he’s the lynchpin that determines what happens to the modern-era class of 2021 ... and let me explain.

If voters make Johnson – a.k.a. Megatron -- a first-ballot choice, only two of five spots remain open, shrinking the odds for this year’s Top-10 also-rans. But if voters don’t? Well, then, we have three spots available for 2021, shaking up the queue and upping the chances for offensive linemen Alan Faneca and Tony Boselli and safety John Lynch.

All have been Top-10 finalists at least three times, with Boselli and Lynch each there four, and all are part of a logjam waiting to advance. But it comes down to Johnson and the likelihood of voters choosing three first-ballot candidates for the third time in four years.

If that happens, it wouldn’t be a first. Voters in 1977 chose three first-ballot inductees, then did it again in 1978. And in 1980. They did it in 1990 and ’91, too. Then chose three more in 1993.

Since 1970, there have been 11 instances where Hall-of-Fame voters elected three players in their first years of eligibility, including three times in the past eight years. That has voters questioning the board’s process regarding first-ballot inductees, with the 2017 election of Jason Taylor the catalyst for debate.

No question, Taylor is Hall-of-Fame worthy. No one disputes that. But a first-ballot pick? He wasn’t a first-team all-decade selection. And he had little playoff experience, reaching the postseason five times in his 15-year career, with no sacks in nine playoff games.

Now fast-forward to Calvin Johnson. He had little playoff experience, too, appearing in just two playoff contests, both of which the Lions lost. But don’t blame Johnson. He had 17 catches for 296 yards, averaged 17.4 yards a catch and scored twice, a vastly different playoff performance from Taylor.

Combine that with a regular-season resume that includes seven 1,000-yard seasons in his last eight years … a league-high 122 catches in 2012 … an NFL-record 1,964 yards that same year … a league-record 5,137 yards receiving in a three-year span (2011-13) … six Pro Bowls and four All-Pro selections (including three first-team choices) … and you might have a first-ballot Hall of Famer waiting to happen.

Of course, it all depends on how voters view him.

No question, Johnson will reach Canton, but playing for a perennial bottom feeder will hurt his first-ballot chances. While 68 percent of all Hall of Famers played for championship teams, Johnson’s Detroit Lions were never close. In his nine seasons there, they were 54-90, had two winning years, went 0-16 in 2008, were 2-30 in 2008-09 and never finished higher than second in their division.

Then there’s the issue of longevity, with Johnson voluntarily retiring after 2015. I know, length of career was devalued after Terrell Davis and Kenny Easley were enshrined in 2017, but their careers were cut short by significant injuries. Johnson’s was not. He retired because he said he felt stuck in Detroit, and “it wasn’t worth beating my head against the wall and not going anywhere. It’s the definition of insanity.”

Yet there’s something more than success or longevity that may make him wait a year or two, and that something is history. I’m not talking about voters’ reluctance to tap three first-ballot choices again (frankly, I don’t think most care) but about a reluctance to make a wide receiver a first-ballot selection.

It’s happened six times since 1970 and only twice in the past 25 years when Jerry Rice (2010) and Randy Moss (2018) were elected.

That doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen with Calvin Johnson, too. He certainly has the resume. But my guess is that he waits in 2021. And if that occurs, the queue of qualified finalists waiting on the steps of Canton has a chance to move forward.

Follow on Twitter @ClarkJudgeTOF