CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Consumer overall heating bills may be lower this winter, as federal energy forecasters predict, but don't expect to completely dodge the arctic bullet, says a leading private weather forecasting company.

There will be strong blasts of very cold arctic air knifing into the nation's midsection this winter just as they did last year, AccuWeather predicts in its annual winter forecast released Wednesday.

And yes, there will be slightly more snow than normal in Northeast Ohio and much more than normal snowfall further east and south into the Appalachians.

"I could see some air masses as cold as last year coming down into the nation," said Jack Boston, AccuWeather senior meteorologist.

He was referring to the outbreak of the "polar vortex" that pushed January temperatures to 20 below 0 degrees in large parts of the nation, leading to an energy crunch, as gas home heating had to compete with gas-fired power plants.

"But they are not going to last," he said of the invasions. "They will come down and move out. We think there will be breaks in the cold."

And good news for Northeast Ohio, the intensely cold blasts are expected, at this point, to be more severe in areas west of here, including northwestern Ohio.

A year ago those arctic blasts pushed the three-month average temperatures in Greater Cleveland 5 degrees below normal in December, January and February.

This year, AccuWeather is predicting that temperatures over the three-month period will average about 2.5 degrees below the 30-year average or normal.

In short, this winter it will be colder than normal, but not quite as cold overall as the winter of 2013. Federal forecasters have earlier said pretty much the same, and are expected Thursday to give a detailed winter forecast.

Despite that proviso of "not as cold as last year," there will be days during which it could be every bit as cold as it was last year. The impact on consumer heating bills remains to be seen.

Natural gas supplies in storage for this winter are still about 10 percent below last year, but are increasing weekly at a record pace, notes the American Gas Association in its mid-month report, also released Wednesday to utilities. Still, commodity gas contracts over the winter are selling for about $4 per thousand cubic feet, or 42 cents per 100 cubic feet, the AGA reports -- setting the stage for a little higher than last year, but still moderate home heating bills.

While winter supplies and continued increases in shale gas production are expected to continue to set monthly records, the weather will still remain the wild card, especially as winter gets under way, say experts.

Traditionally, a cold November pushes natural gas, heating oil and propane prices higher, sometimes well into the winter, depending on the depth of the cold and the supplies on hand.

The cold-air down escalator is expected to turn on during the last couple weeks of November, delivering a flow of "arctic light" air into the Midwest and Ohio -- pushing temperatures below normal for that time of the year and wiping away the warm start to the month when temperatures are expected to be mild.

"You could see a couple of pretty cold outbreaks of air," said Boston, defining "pretty cold" as daytime temperatures cresting in the 30s, well below the normal late November upper 40s.

And snow? Yes. Snow in November could accumulate about 6 inches for the month, or about 2 inches above the normal November snowfall for Cleveland.

But that estimate does not include the suburbs and counties east of Cleveland, where "lake effect" is expected to dump heavier amounts of snow, said Boston.

After a cold Thanksgiving, December should be pleasant for this region, the company is forecasting, based on its conclusion that the winds in the upper atmosphere will have shifted, temporarily blocking cold air invasions.

"We think the real severe weather will back off in December," Boston said.

But the rest of the winter? Not so much.

"January and February will be pretty harsh," he said.