Liberals Steady, PCs Drop Five Points in Toronto

It is still a tie, but the Tories down from where they were in October

Toronto, November 23rd – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 843 Toronto voters, a third (33%) say that if a provincial election were held today, they would cast their ballot for the Ontario Liberal party, which is unchanged from October (Oct 11: 33%).

The PCs also see support of one-third (31%), but this represents a five-point drop since October (Oct 11: 36%), so while the Liberals and PCs are still statistically tied for the lead in Toronto, it is less favourable for the PCs than it was in October.

The NDP are supported by one-quarter (25%) of Torontonians, a similar proportion to last month (Oct 11: 23%).

The Green Party’s (7%) support is also effectively unchanged since October (Oct 11: 6%). Support for other parties, however, has doubled (4%) since October (Oct 11: 2%).





Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 35-44 (34%), 45-54 (35%), or 65+ (35%), earning $80-100,000 (44%), with a post-graduate degree (38%), and living in East York (40%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the PCs include those aged 45-54 (39%) or 65+ (41%), males (37%), the least educated (38%), and living in North York (38%).

Respondents most likely to say that they support the NDP include those aged 34 or younger (36%), earning $40-60,000 (38%), with some college/university (29%), and living in the former city of Toronto (30%).

“The Progressive Conservatives should be concerned by a five point drop in support here in Toronto,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Breaking the Liberals’ Fortress Toronto will be key to Patrick Brown’s electoral success, and if the Liberals can manage to hold Toronto, it’s not inconceivable they can win a government.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.