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Aaron Nielsen ,

January 14, 2014 Email

Aaron Nielsen



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@ENBSports

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What I have learned from all the hype leading up to the MLS SuperDraft this Thursday, including the MLS combine, is unfortunately not very much. I feel sorry for someone who is trying keep up with no prior NCAA knowledge and depends on mlssoccer.com for insight. The first issue is the league has decided not to broadcast any games from this year's combine, so MLS has provided short goal videos from the games. This would make Michigan attacking midfielder Fabio Pereira a big name in this draft for his free kick goal in the second combine game, but the reality is if one has followed his college career he will likely not be drafted. We also have reporting that lacks quality research and you see quotes such as "Steve Birnbaum is an animal on set pieces". In truth, none of his goals in college were from headers and according to my data has only scored two goals in his college career from set plays. At least Birnbaum has been mentioned; as most combine players have been ignored unless you are a GA pick, which reads more as a marketing campaign than a true evaluation. In defense of the 2014 MLS Draft coverage and quality, Home Grown Player ("HGP") signings have had an effect on the draft, with nine players being signed so far this winter and five of them would of been included on my prospect list. LA Galaxy HGP signing Gyasi Zardes would easily have been last year's first overall pick in the draft but this edition doesn't have the same stand out player. Real Salt Lake's home grown signing Jordan Allen could have been a potential first overall pick depending on a club's needs. Other HGP players who should make an impact are Seattle's Aaron Kovar and Sean Okoli, Chicago Fire's Harrison Shipp, and DC United's Jalen Robinson. Toronto FC signing Jordan Hamilton could also be a key player from this season's new signings, however, since he didn't play any college games it's difficult for me to evaluate him compared to others in the draft. Of the players in the 2014 draft, I have listed my top 25 prospects prior to the combine and I stand by these picks in terms of quality and potential regarding this draft. I also joined fellow RNO contributor Kamal Hylton on his upcoming podcast episode of the Gaffer & Hooligan where we talk about the draft in detail and break it down based on each individual team's needs, as well as the best players who fit these roles. Unfortunately due to time constraints we really only had a chance to cover the first round, so here is a general breakdown of players available by position in the 2014 MLS draft this Thursday. Goalkeepers



Top prospect Andre Blake demonstrated his class with a great save against Steve Neumann in the first combine game, but otherwise this hasn't been a great year for goalkeeping. However, the announcement that Washington keeper Spencer Richey recovered from an injury that kept him out most the season, gives clubs a second option. Richey was ranked fairly high in my original draft list before he got hurt and considering he is from Seattle, it wouldn't surprise me if the Sounders take a shot at him in the draft. The third rated goalie in my view is Rafael Diaz who played at St John's, while the other keepers invited to the combine are Kyle Renfro, whose statistics were not great, and two foreign keepers in Kees Heemskerk and Fabian Otte. There is also the possibility of a keeper drafted late who wasn't invited to the combine.



Centre Backs



Centre Back is the real strength in this year's draft with 5 in my top 25 prospects. Christian Dean, Kyle Venter, Steve Birnbuam, Kevin Cope, Grant Van de Casteele, and just outside my top 25, Xavier's Nick Hagglund and Washington's Taylor Peay. If Hagglund played for a higher profile school he'd be ranked higher, while Peay had good offensive numbers for his position, but didn't have the same body of work as the others as he only became a full-time starter in 2012. The top six should be drafted fairly early and could play significant minutes next season. The wild card is Ecuadorian Youth International Ronny Mendoza. The 18 year old is 6'4 and also played as starter with Manta in Ecuador this past season, but one concern is defensively he is very raw underscored by 14 yellow cards in 29 games. I also like combine invite Patrick Slogic and his 6'6 frame, but my only issue is playing at Cornell meant he didn't play against the best competition, while another invite Jimmy Ockford proved to be a useful players after transferring to Louisville but he might become a better defensive midfielder than centre back.



Full Backs



Full Backs has become a weak position in MLS and without North Carolina Boyd Okwounu receiving a GA Contract the options, in my view, are not great. A few should be drafted fairly high and given an opportunity to play. In my prospect rankings I had Eric Miller, Ben Sweat, Damion Lowe and Jacob Bushue who might all be drafted in the first round. While Akron's converted full back Robert Derschang could also be an option, and late combine invite Marco Franco could be a surprise early pick. Some players who played a different position in college might be tried out at full back, such as California's Ryan Neil. There are some not invited to the combine, the most interesting being is if Washington's Micheal Harris gets any interest. While not very talented, he did play a major role in Washington's offense this season using an incredibly long flip throw that created havoc in the opponents’ 18 yard box. Defensive Midfielders



In my opinion, for many college players if they wish to become long term pros in MLS the defensive midfielder role is their best option. Based as much on effort as talent, although this season the draft has a few players who would be regarded as defensive midfield specialists such as Joey Dillon who is committed to the position more than any other draftee in the past. Stanford's JJ Kovel and Jared Watts are good options at this position as well and provide more of an offensive threat than Dillon. Other combine invitees includes only one American in Charlotte's Tyler Gibson and three foreigners in UCONN's George Fochive (France) and Santa Barbara's Fifi Baiden and New Mexico's Michael Kafari who are both from Ghana. The question will be do teams prefer the developing of more offensive players into the position or drafting the more final product who seem to be pro ready? Midfielders

The most competitive position in terms of the combine invites who would be labeled as box-to-box midfielders, including attacking midfielders and midfielders who play the flanks. Unfortunately, many will not be given the same opportunities at an MLS club as they did in college, so the question will be which players can adapt the best? Further proof of this is of the more than 20 players invited to the combine; only four are on my prospect list in Marlon Hairston, Pedro Riberio, AJ Corrado and Aodhan Quinn. This being said, I think Akron's Eric Stevenson, New Mexico's Michael Calderon, Youth International Andre Lewis and Canadian Tomislav Zadro should be drafted and given an opportunity to play. I'm not so high on the others such as VCU's Romena Bowie who is the most athletic, but he had a poor college career. Enrique Cardenas, Victor Munoz, and Justin Portillo might have the best offensive skills but are also under 5'7 in height, while Alex Martinez and Fabio Perreira did not perform at the level they showed in prior seasons. The other issue is players such as Martinez, Perreira, Portillo, Thomas McNamara, Alex Sweetin, Zach Bolden, and Daniel Lovitz have achieved a lot of their college offense through set play opportunities, which diminishes their stats compared to what is expected in the pros. Personally, I rate players not invited to the combine having greater potential including Creighton's Zach Barnes, La Salle's Jason Plumhoff, and Hofstra's Chris Griebsch to name a few. Even Canadian Chase Wickham might be worth a pick after transferring to UAB and being a consistent player after starting career in the CIS at Trinity Western. Wingers



I feel it’s important to break down the forward position between wingers and centre forwards. Wingers either play wide in a 4-3-3 formation, which is a very popular system played in college, or a right/left attacking midfielder in a more advance formation such as 4-2-3-1 formation. The two players who stick out in this draft are not listed as wingers. Schillo Tshuma, despite the lack of size, is seen by many as a centre forward; while Steve Neumann is either an attacking midfielder or secondary striker, although I feel having them on the wing will best utilize their individual skill sets. Reinaldo Brenes, Victor Chavez, Nikita Kotlov and Luca Gimanez are your more traditional wingers who have excelled in the college game having the offensive freedom of playing forward or coming off the wing. Despite above average skills, their college statistics are exaggerated since these players will not be given the same opportunities for a MLS Club. In the history of the draft this has been the most wasted position and especially with the expansion of MLS you would hope teams develop tactically to take advantage of these type of players. Centre Forwards

The centre forwards going into the 2014 MLS draft generally under performed this past season. In the past, strikers have dominated the draft, but this season outside of Patrick Mullins the other forward options either had underwhelming seasons in 2013 or don't have the proven track record to guarantee an early pick. Mullins has his own issues based on opportunities, although after winning the Hermann Trophy two years in a row he should be drafted early and given a shot to play. The most skilled centre forwards in the draft are Mamadou Diouf and Mark Sherrod, however both struggled in 2013, while Pete Caringi is the most consistent player, but played for a school with a weak schedule.



Other centre forwards in the draft might work out, providing depth in this position, but don't have the skills needed to be regular forward options in pro game. Canadian MacKenzie Pridham scored 14 goals during the 2013 season, but most goals were scrappy goals taking advantage of loose balls in the box. Adnan Gabeljic, Wojciech Wojcik and Joshua Wood have good size and strength, but are too slow to cause much trouble. Finally, Oliver Gore, Pierre Omanga and Quinton Christina would count as foreign slots and not worth wasting the pick.



Overall, I feel fifty players or so from this year's draft class will make an appearance in the upcoming 2014 MLS season. As MLS advances their loaning options for players, a high percentage of these players should be part of the league for the next few seasons with a few having long MLS careers. If some of the 2014 draft class can improve and reach their potential, they can even progress to their respective senior national teams and interest in Europe. Aaron Nielsen has worked within the soccer/sports industry for over 15 years. His statistical analysis brings the beautiful game in a whole new light. The detailed player data and prospect lists he produces are used by many scouts, agents, and football insiders around the world.You can find updating stats regularly at ENBSports.

