We had a brief glimpse of Lucas Giolito in 2016 as he started four and relieved in two games for the Nationals, accruing 21.1 innings of 6.75 ERA ball. We were looking forward to better times for the 6’6″ right-hander and after a trade to the Chicago White Sox during the 2016 off-season, Giolito held a 9.37 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, and 4.48 ERA in 24 starts in Triple-A. Tuesday night marked the return for 23-year-old Giolito and I for one was excited to see what he had morphed into during his time away from the majors. Let’s jump into the start and talk about what we saw.

First Inning

We’re going to hit the ground running here as right out of the gate I already noticed something with Giolito’s mechanics. Here are two pitches from his first at-bat against Brian Dozier and like in the Reynaldo Lopez breakdown, try to identify why his second pitch hits its target while the first misses off the plate:

Look at Giolito’s back leg after delivery. In the second pitch, it goes much higher into the air, suggesting he’s using his bottom half more to drive himself toward the glove and ease his timing on release. This a big necessity for Giolito and I’ve even made a beautiful reference image to use through this breakdown:

Keep that it mind as we go through the game (let’s call it the Backfoot Line), though I wouldn’t say that it’s the reason for this horrible pitch to conclude Dozier’s at-bat:

There is just so much going through my head: Does Giolito struggle with going inside to right-handers? Is his command this terrible? Why was his front shoulder closed for so long? In summary, this is bad. Which you already knew, but there is just so much bad here. Let’s hope it’s a jitters situation and less so of what’s to come for the rest of this game.

The first pitch to Joe Mauer was intended to be inside, but peeled off toward the outside corner for a strike. It’s still down, but there’s already a sense that Giolito’s command problems haven’t been eradicated from last year. He turned to a Changeup at 0-1 – probably the gameplan to feature Changeups over Curveballs when facing left-handers – and it sailed high above the zone with minimal movement.

The next pitch was Fastball close to the spot gets a groundout to second base, though it’s still a juicy pitch that needs to be farther inside overall:

Giolito can get away with pitches like these given his high release point that creates a downward plane as the ball travels to the mitt, but he’s not always going to have that luxury. Giolito will never be known as a flyball pitcher. By the way. I haven’t seen him hit the Backfoot Line since that 2-1 pitch to Dozier and I doubt we’ll see much of it this game. Major red flag.

And now we have more interesting mechanical differences between two pitches. Here are the first two Fastballs thrown to Jorge Polanco:

It’s asking a lot for any pitcher (let alone a 23-year-old making his first start of the season for a new ballclub) to repeat their mechanics with each pitch, but I think it’s incredibly important to scrutinize with Giolito as we need to pinpoint what works and what doesn’t. Anyone watching him on the hill will tell you that tweaks need to be made somewhere.

The focus here is on his glove, which moves differently after each pitch. In the first, it violently zips out and away from his body, with the second staying closer to his hip after release. Checking the Dozier GIF to lead off this breakdown will show the same thing – minimal glove movement at the end = better command. The reason is the same as the Backfoot Line – more momentum toward the plate. On well executed pitches, he’s getting closer to the plate, getting better extension on the ball on release, with a flatter back as his whole body is falling more toward home plate as his arm follows through. A greater lean toward home will force his glove to move more toward second base than first.

Alright, that’s enough mechanical talk, let’s move forward in this game. Giolito’s 1-1 pitch was the second Changeup of the night, with the pitch never looking like a strike as it sailed into the dirt. The 2-1 Fastball wasn’t any different, leading to a 3-1 Fastball that is right in the middle of the zone…

That’s a dodged bullet right there. Polanco was sitting Fastball in a 3-1 count and got a meaty one right over the middle of the plate. Giolito’s lucky Dozier is still on second base.

Quickly Giolito falls behind again on a borderline pitch to Eddie Rosario, though he was aiming high-and-tight and the ball just missed down-and-away. Now he spikes a Fastball in the dirt and about two pitches out of the sixteen he’s thrown thus far have done what he’s wanted them to do. The 2-0 pitch sailed a bit high above the zone, but he got a weak check swing from Rosario for a gift of a strike. Now 2-1, Giolito throws yet another meatball that is tagged to right-field:

The box score shows Giolito looking dominant as he didn’t allow a walk or hit. To the rest of us, we’re worried about what’s to come.

Second Inning

My hope for the inning was to see Giolito try to get a feel for locating his Fastball and right away he nails his spot for a well deserved groundout. So far so good:

Backfoot Line looks solid, glove not so much but I’ll take it. Giolito hits the spot again to another left-hander and I’m followed by a looping Curveball that hangs long enough to be slapped for a single to left. It’s one of his better thrown Curveballs of the entire game, and I can’t say I’m surprised that it came with a great Backfoot Line:

Right, you haven’t seen his Curveball yet. As you can see it’s a massive hook that will be effective when he has a feel for it. It’s the pitch that made Giolito such a prized arm and it will cause trouble. Even this one that resulted in a single isn’t terrible as it could have easily found a glove for an out despite its location. It would be shocking if he found himself getting into trouble with the pitch unless he struggles mightily to get it over the plate for a strike in the long haul.

First pitch to Vargas was a decent Changeup despite it’s location out of the zone. Good tumble to it and would work in other situations. Fastball misses up on the inside edge and we’re behind in another count. The next pitch is near the same spot, slightly more over the plate inducing an awkward swing and miss from Vargas:

The reason I wanted to highlight this pitch is to show the deception Giolito can get on elevated Four-Seamers. I was discussing Giolito’s start on the fly on Twitter with Jeff Long from Baseball Prospectus, and he made a great point about Giolito suggesting that he may work best by pitching backward: using secondary pitches to get ahead while turning to his Fastball more as a deep count pitch. Seeing this poor swing on an elevated Fastball in a 2-0 count exposes the possibility of this approach.

The following 2-1 pitch was a borderline heater down and in that got the call with an excellent 2-2 pitch after for a broken bat to get the groundout to second:

This is the best pitch I’ve seen from Giolito the entire night thus far, not only executing the pitch perfectly, but doing so when execution equates to an out.

With a man on third, Giolito tries to go inside to left-hander Jason Castro and misses away. Then he tries to fade a Changeup off the outside corner…which floats up but clips the top of the strikezone. So far so bad but luckily a 1-1 count. However, he recovers in his final two pitches to putway Castro:

The first pitch illustrates more of the “pitching backward” philosophy from before, especially when this pitch looks like 100mph after following an 83mph Changeup in the same spot. The second has me a little more on the fence. On one hand this pitch got plenty of the zone and was pretty hittable. On the other, Giolito’s deceptive delivery make it hard to square up a Fastball and let’s give him credit here for getting the ball in the zone and a bit down. He’s earned his first strike out as a White Sox pitcher and we’re moving onto the third, still with 0 ER to his name.

Third Inning

While it’s right down the middle, I’m fine with Giolito’s first pitch of the third with a Fastball for a strike. It’s followed with an elevated heater that swung through by Ehire Adrianza and Giolito is in the first 0-2 count of the game. Now he tugs a Fastball well inside followed by a terrible Curveball bounced in front of the plate. So much for the pitcher’s count. After a Fastball away that’s fouled off (supposed to be down-and-in) and a heater down-and-away that sails far off the outside edge, Giolito tries to hit a Fastball down-and-in:

Fine. His Fastball was all over the place in this at-bat and it clearly has the ability to miss bats, but his command of it is absolutely terrible. It’s hard to believe he won’t run into trouble in this game.

After throwing another Curveball 55 feet, Giolito tries to hurl a 1-0 Fastball away to right-handed Dozier and misses middle-in to get a whiff. Now 1-1, he tries again to hit the outside corner…and misses middle-in for Dozier to roll over for a grounder to third. Bad command again leading to another out.

Giolito got ahead 0-1 with a Fastball that was supposed to be inside and peeled away. This is getting tiring to type. Now 0-1 to a left-hander, Giolito threw his best Changeup I’ve seen in this game:

That’s beautiful! Right on the corner, fading action, and a free strike to get to 0-2. And look at that Backfoot Line! Please repeat this a ton.

0-2 renders a Fastball up-and-in that was supposed to be down, but this is a good miss. At 1-2, Giolito finally turns to his Curveball against a left-hander and executes it beautifully, ending below the zone where Mauer rolls over it for a groundout:

Look at that. Two well commanded secondary pitches earning the out for Giolito. And the Backfoot Line! I’m totally fine with him commanding his secondary pitches and not relying on Fastball command through the outing.

Fourth Inning

Here I was, excited about Giolito maybe getting into a groove and he tugs the first pitch of the inning for a wasted Fastball to Polanco. The next two Fastballs weren’t close to the plate either, and after a 3-0 Fastball right down the middle, Giolito doubled up with the pitch on 3-1 and…

It’s about time. With how wild his Fastball command has been and the plethora of poor counts, it was inevitable that Giolito would have one of his Fastballs crushed.

Alright I’m not going to tell you what this next pitch is. Just look at it:

What was it? I’m inclined to believe it was a Slider, a pitch that he’s been known to have in the minors and has yet to showcase in the majors yet. It’s a little slow at 83mph (reports were around 85+ in Triple-A), but its sharp downward movement makes me think it’s the slide piece coming out of the woods. And I love it. I think this can be the pitch Giolito needs to throw near 20% of the time or more. Use it often to get ahead 0-1 like it did here, saving his Fastball as a finishing pitch instead of opener. And guess what, Giolito saved the heat for two strikes, using his Changeup to get strike two, leading to a groundout on a well located pitch inside.

Excellent! Here’s your blueprint for success Giolito.

After two poor pitches to Byron Buxton that weren’t close to the plate (spiked Curveball yet again and a incredibly wild heater up), Giolito went exclusively Fastball the rest of the at-bat and popped up Buxton on a decent Fastball over the plate.

With two outs, Giolito wastes a Fastball into the opposite batter’s box to left-handed Euardo Escobar before nailing the inside corner with a heater on the following pitch – one of the better Fastballs he’s thrown all night. After a poor Fastball down and one that leaked out over the plate for a foul ball, Giolito paints the inside corner at 94mph to freeze Escobar and send it to the fifth:

It’s a great pitch, though it’s hard to be enthused by it when the other Fastballs during the at-bat were all over the place. He’s Effectively Wild, you could say, but that used to describe Francisco Liriano and I wouldn’t say that’s something pitchers should strive to be.

Fifth Inning

I’m undecided about this first pitch to Kennys Vargas:

On one hand, it induced a terrible swing with good movement out of the strike zone that got Giolito ahead quickly. On the other, he missed his spot once again and versus most batters he would be in the hole 1-0 as he has been fairly often tonight.

He doubled up with the pitch to get to 0-2, where fresh with the memory of the previous time facing Giolito where he broke his bat, Vargas sees this slightly elevated fastball inside and…

Ouch. Some may call this a poorly located pitch, but I wouldn’t. He barely missed the glove and while it should have been a little higher, this wasn’t close to the same mistakes he’s made throughout the game. Still, it should have been a slightly more uncomfortable pitch to hit, a little higher and a little tighter. Easily the least deserving punishment Giolito received during this start.

It seems as though the Twins are getting the idea of Giolito’s gameplan in the fifth as Castro battles to a 2-2 count and muscles into right-field the same pitch Vargas took yard. Uh-oh.

Deeper in the fifth now, I adore this first pitch to Adrianaza as it earned a quick out with a first pitch Fastball for a strike.

Keep in mind, after busting Fastballs inside to left-handers elading to a pair of hits, it wouldn’t be surprising if Adrianza was looking for the same pitch and Giolito changed it up, leading to this flyout.

If Giolito isn’t going to pitch backward, it’s important that he’s pounding the strikezone. The Twins have proved today that his Fastball is good enough to get outs more than hits when in the zone, and he’ll get plenty of free outs if he can hit this outer-half Fastball for a first pitch strike.

Moving on, the next batter is Dozier who is served a Fastball for another first pitch strike, exactly the same as the ones we saw before to Dozier where Giolito tried to go outside and it peeled middle-in. After tugging a Curveball and getting a kind call on an outside Fastball, Giolito escaped the fifth with a Curveball that fell to the middle of the plate, but Dozier could only slap it to short for a double-play:

It was just the second Curveball of the game that landed inside the strike zone, both hit as grounders to short. That works for me, just make them sit in the zone more often.

Sixth Inning

He fell behind 1-0 with an inside Fastball to Mauer, then used two Changeups to get back ahead 1-2. The goal is to bury a solid Curveball in the dirt, but this one hit the front of the plate instead of falling behind it and Mauer didn’t offer. We’ll get there one day. Mauer fights off a Fastball right down the middle (probably looking off-speed again), takes a Fastball missing down-and-in, then Giolito leaves another Fastball in the middle of the plate, which was lined to left-field. This should have been an out as Garcia lost it in the lights leading to a double, though it was hit hard enough with a terrible location that I don’t have much sympathy for Giolito.

A bunt sent Mauer to third and with one out, Giolito made yet another mistake with his Fastball:

If you’re still thinking about the Backfoot Line, this is the most apparent pitch of them all and it led to a horrible spot for his Fastball. His backfoot barely hovers above the dirt and it needs to be corrected moving forward.

Now, Giolito is not going to boast a 42.9% HR/FB rate. I’m not going to tell you that and I’m sure some will look at that number and expect a fair amount of regression. However, you’ve seen the pitches he’s thrown that led to the trio of homeruns in this game and I think we can both agree Giolito’s 4 ER day wasn’t a product of bad luck.

Buxton is up next and grounds to third on a 1-1 pitch that’s a meaty Fastball over the middle-half for the second out. His final batter of the day was Escobar, who rocketed a hanging Changeup foul, then took a terrible swing at a great fading Changeup off the outside corner. Giolito tried to nail that 0-2 Curveball, but spiked it yet again. One day, Giolito. One day. After another poor Changeup, he gets the call with a Fastball on the inside corner to complete his 2017 debut:

A fantastic at-bat to end on as it’s exactly what we want Giolito to do: Pitch backward.

Final Line: 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. 64/99 Strikes.

It shouldn’t come as a shock when I say that I’m worried about Giolito. He dances in and out of Fastball command, showing ability to spot the pitch glove side at times, but struggling mightily to hit arm-side with consistency, while many heaters simply have a mind of their own. His Curveball is incredibly raw with only a few landing in the zone and plenty wasted as he rarely executed the proper two-strike breaking ball. His Changeup had flashes of brilliance arm-side to left-handers, but it was far from becoming a pitch he can trust to get outs. He had one pitch that could be called a Slider and I hope in future starts he shows off the pitch more often as it could be a solution to help Giolito get strikes earlier in the count to set up an elevated Fastball.

Mechanically speaking, there’s plenty to work on, primarily with his lower half. His push from his back leg is different with every pitch, ranging from a release high in the air – which resulted in better executed pitches – to his back foot dragging just above the mound – which led to plenty of mistakes. I wonder if a simple tweak like focusing heavily on his back leg can make a major difference for Giolito in future outings.

These 3,000 words have come with an air of negativity toward Giolito, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t elements that can make him a stud down the road as his Fastball will miss plenty of bats when elevated in the zone, his Curveball has 70+ grade upside, and his Changeup had its moment in this outing. He has plenty to work on before getting to that point, though, and for 12-teamers, he’s a not my favorite flier who I’d expect to hurt more than help. There’s plenty of room to grow when considering him for 2018 and at a young age of 23-years-old, there’s hope he can blossom with more time in the league.