If Mayor Brian Bowman’s approval rating falls any further — it has plummeted 22 percentage points in the past year — he could be in for a real fight if he faces a formidable challenger in the 2018 civic election.

But those are two very big “ifs.”

It’s not unusual for a mayor’s popularity to drop over time, especially once the honeymoon period is over. Few politicians can maintain approval ratings at close to 80% for very long, even in the absence of scandal or unpopular policy decisions. That’s just the nature of politics. You can’t please all of the people all of the time — not even close.

What should be a bit of a concern to Bowman and his political staff, though, is how quickly his approval rating has dropped in just one year. Especially since he’s still a relatively new mayor who’s only been on the job for two years.

In September 2015, which marked the one-year anniversary of his mayoral victory, Bowman enjoyed a 77% approval rating. But after breaking several election promises, including raising property taxes well beyond inflation — something he promised he wouldn’t do — Bowman’s approval rating fell to 63% in June 2016, according to a Mainstreet Research poll. Five months later, the mayor’s approval rating fell even further to 55%, according to the latest Mainstreet poll.

That comes in the wake of Bowman’s decision to push through his new development tax, which will add thousands of dollars to the mortgages of new homebuyers in the city. The move was done with very little consultation and without any evidence whatsoever to justify the new tax. It was one giant tax grab.

Nevertheless, a 55% approval rating still isn’t bad. If Bowman maintains that level going into a 2018 civic election — assuming he plans to seek re-election — he shouldn’t have much trouble winning. But if he falls below the 50%-mark and continues to trend downward as he has been over the past year, he could be in trouble if he faces a strong opponent in the race.

And that’s the other “if.”

At this point, nobody has announced they plan to take on Bowman. It’s a bit early. And if there are no legitimate contenders, Bowman should win hands down.

The only fictitious contender used in the same Mainstreet poll conducted last week that showed any promise at all as a legitimate contender was NDP MLA Kevin Chief. When asked who they would vote for if there was an election today, 44% chose Bowman and 20% said they would vote for Chief. Not a bad showing for Chief — who has been rumoured as a possible mayoral contender — considering he hasn’t even suggested publicly he’s thinking of running.

However, the likelihood of electing an NDP mayor in the current anti-NDP climate in Winnipeg seems remote.

The biggest threat to Bowman’s re-election bid would be facing off against a strong small-c conservative candidate. Bowman sold himself as a fiscal conservative when he won in 2014. But he’s proven himself to be anything but a fiscal conservative.

And that has opened up an opportunity for a small-c conservative candidate to offer a real alternative to Bowman’s tax-and-spend agenda.

So far, though, no such candidate has come forward. And that may be because even under ideal conditions for a challenger, incumbent mayors are rarely defeated in Winnipeg.

Former mayor Sam Katz was an exception. He didn’t seek re-election because he knew he had no chance of winning. But he would have likely lost had he sought another mandate.

Beyond that, you have to go back 60 years to find a sitting mayor in Winnipeg who was defeated. Steve Juba did it in 1956 when he beat incumbent George Sharpe.

The chances of that happening in 2018 are still slim. But a lot can change in two years.