Since Robert Griffin's spectacular rookie season, there have been an previous few other things to talk about with regard to Washington—especially once he started to regress. Now there's speculation he could be traded. It's obvious his production has declined, but to what extent exactly? Is it as bad as it seems?


Griffin posted the highest rookie passer rating (102.4) in NFL history and his 7.47 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) ranked second among rookies with at least 200 attempts, trailing only Marc Bulger's 7.67 ANY/A after stepping into the Greatest Show on Turf. There have been only twelve rookie quarterbacks who posted a passer rating above 80 with an ANY/A above 5, according to Pro Football Reference. The list features Hall of Fame quarterbacks like Jim Kelly and Dan Marino as well as current league stars like Cam Newton (shut up) and Ben Roethlisberger.

But it's obvious Griffin isn't playing at that level. Comparing Griffin's second year and third year stats to players like Marino is mostly pointless, because you already know Griffin's play drastically fell off while Marino continued being great. However, there is one quarterback on the list Griffin's play more closely resembles—Charlie Batch.


The table below shows how Batch's and Griffin's stats changed from their rookie season to their second and third seasons on average. For example, Griffin's passer rating his rookie year was 102.4. His second year it was 82.2 and his third year it was 85.7, giving the two years an average of 83.95. The difference between his rookie year and this average is a drop of 18.45. Passer rating is not a good stat, but as a reference point, it tracks performance more or less accurately.

Player Comp% TD% Int% ANY/A Pass Rate Batch -2.35 0.40 1.10 -0.79 -7.80 Griffin -0.70 -2.50 1.25 -2.42 -18.45

While Griffin's completion percentage has declined less than Batch's did (and is actually at a career high of 69.7 percent this season), his overall stats regressed more than Batch's. Griffin's touchdowns, yards per attempt, and passer rating dropped at a higher rate, while his interception rate rose more than Batch's.

Batch had his best season as a rookie, and after a few lousy seasons with Detroit he was traded to Pittsburgh where he became a gold standard backup. We should hope there are brighter things in Griffin's future.