With unlimited transfers this season, match ups are more important than ever. The question is how to evaluate match ups, especially if you’re only an aspiring Armchair Analyst and not yet the real thing. The answer? Expected Goals (xG).

What are expected goals (xG)

The idea behind xG is simple. Every shot is awarded a probability of scoring based on the position on the field and the game situation, based on giant databases of shots from years and years of data. Then at the end of the game all the xGs from the individual shots are added up to generate the team’s xG for that game. This metric is a useful measure of the teams overall attacking or defending play, more so than just looking at how many goals a team has scored or allowed. If you’d like to learn more, there’s a nice video by MLS to explain further:

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/04/24/what-are-expected-goals-learn-what-you-need-know-about-statistic

How to use these rankings

The rankings below use the xG metric to rank the match ups each week to help you determine which teams you should try to choose your attackers or defenders from. Each teams score is an average of their xG/g and their opponent’s xG/g separated out into offense/defense and home/away match ups. For example, if Atlanta plays NYCFC at home. Atlanta has an average home xG/g is 1.62 and NYCFC’s has an average away xG/g allowed is 0.96 for an offensive xG score of 1.29 xG. The reverse can be done to calculate their defensive score for this week. The game by game xG numbers are taken from Ben Baer’s weekly xG article.

Week 19 Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 19 Rank Team Opponent H/A Season OFF Form OFF 1 NE Revolution NYRB H 1.84 1.81 2 LA Galaxy RSL H 1.56 1.78 3 Houston Dynamo MTL H 1.66 1.42 4 Portland Timbers CHI H 1.51 1.56 5 Minnesota United CLB H 1.48 1.39 6 Orlando City TOR H 1.36 1.51 7 Sporting Kansas City PHI H 1.33 1.53 8 Toronto OCSC A 1.36 1.46 9 Atlanta United SJE H 1.32 1.41 10 FC Dallas DCU H 1.37 1.26 11 Vancouver Whitecaps FC NYCFC H 1.18 1.33 12 NY Red Bulls NER A 1.01 1.49 13 Colorado Rapids SEA H 1.23 1.26 14 Columbus Crew MIN A 1.26 1.14 15 Chicago Fire POR A 1.14 1.22 16 RSL LAG A 1.08 1.2 17 NYCFC VAN A 1.06 1.12 18 Seattle Sounders COL A 1.04 1 19 Montreal Impact HOU A 0.88 0.96 20 DC United FCD A 0.87 0.94 21 Philadelphia Union SKC A 0.77 0.81 22 San Jose Earthquakes ATL A 0.83 0.75

Week 19 Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 17 Rank Team Opponent H/A Season DEF Form DEF 1 Atlanta United SJE H 0.83 0.75 2 Sporting Kansas City PHI H 0.77 0.81 3 FC Dallas DCU H 0.87 0.94 4 Houston Dynamo MTL H 0.88 0.96 5 Colorado Rapids SEA H 1.04 1 6 Vancouver Whitecaps FC NYCFC H 1.06 1.12 7 LA Galaxy RSL H 1.08 1.2 8 Portland Timbers CHI H 1.14 1.22 9 Minnesota United CLB H 1.26 1.14 10 Seattle Sounders COL H 1.23 1.26 11 NE Revolution NYRB A 1.01 1.49 12 NYCFC VAN A 1.18 1.33 13 DC United FCD A 1.37 1.26 14 San Jose Earthquakes ATL A 1.32 1.41 15 Orlando City TOR H 1.36 1.46 16 Philadelphia Union SKC A 1.33 1.53 17 Columbus Crew MIN A 1.48 1.39 18 Toronto OCSC A 1.36 1.51 19 Chicago Fire POR A 1.51 1.56 20 Montreal Impact HOU A 1.66 1.42 21 RSL LAG A 1.56 1.78 22 NY Red Bulls NER A 1.84 1.81

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