Assuming, of course, that it is close. No one is totally sure. The polling in Nevada is sparse and thought to be unreliable, making it tough to know exactly what the situation is. RealClearPolitics includes just three polls so far this year in its average, which show the two candidates either even or Clinton a little bit ahead. Part of the difficulty springs from the process—the fact that Nevada uses a caucus rather than a primary—and from the state’s geography, which is more spread out and wide open than the other early states, as Nora Kelly reports. Plus there's same-day registration for caucuses, meaning that Republicans and independents could show up Saturday, register as Democrats, and participate.

One reason that Nevada has the nation’s fourth Democratic contest, and one reason it’s expected to be such an important one, is that the state has a far less white Democratic electorate than Iowa and New Hampshire. In 2008, 15 percent of caucusgoers were black and another 15 percent were Hispanic, with whites accounting for 65 percent. The premise of the Clinton firewall argument is that Sanders would run into trouble once he left rural, white states like Iowa and New Hampshire behind and had to content with voters of color. But lately, Clinton’s backers are talking more and more about how that will play in the south, and in particular in South Carolina, than they are in Nevada. Both campaigns have been making their play for Hispanic voters.

On Thursday, Clinton released what’s probably her strongest spot of the cycle, which is just raw footage of a girl whose parents could be deported speaking to her at a rally:

The same day, Sanders released his own strong video, a bilingual ad focusing on the housing crisis, which hit Nevada hard. (Don’t miss Sanders’s Spanish-language disclaimer at the end.)

Both campaigns have also courted black voters. Clinton has tied herself closely to President Obama and accused Sanders of betraying him. In an interview with BET, Sanders accused her of pandering: “We know what that's about. That's trying to win support from the African American community where the president is enormously popular.”

Besides the minority vote, the two campaigns have also battled for the backing of the Culinary Workers Union. The Sanders campaign seemed to have committed a major gaffe when the union accused his staffers of impersonating union workers, but they somehow resolved the dispute, and the union has stayed out of the race.

Assuming the race is as close as the polls suggest, Sanders and Clinton will split a roughly equal number of the Nevada’s 43 delegates. That would be Clinton still way ahead of Sanders in the delegate count—though it remains hard to believe that superdelegates would deliver the nomination to Clinton if primary voters clearly favor Sanders.