Obama's erosion among white voters continues





President Obama continues to struggle among white voters. AP Photo

The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows President Obama's standing among white voters continuing to slip, a potentially ominous sign for his party with the midterm elections fast approaching.

Just 40 percent of whites in the Post/ABC survey approve of the job Obama is doing, his lowest rating among this key demographic since the start of his presidency and well below the 50 percent approval number that he carries nationwide. Forty-three percent of white voters strongly disapprove of the job Obama is doing, while just 19 percent strongly approve.

Among the other lowlights with whites in this poll for Obama: 54 percent of college-educated whites now disapprove of the job he is doing, and, among white college-educated women, Obama's approval numbers has dipped below 50 percent for the first time in his presidency in Post/ABC polling.

Much of Obama's struggles with white voters seems directly attributable to the public's deep pessimism about the economy. (Ninety-four percent of whites polled rated the economy either not so good or poor.) Just over one in three whites (37 percent) approve of Obama's handling of the economy -- his worst rating among that demographic group ever. Forty-eight percent of white voters strongly disapprove of Obama's stewardship of the economy, while 13 percent strongly approve.

It's interesting that Obama's flagging numbers on the economy have been driven not by white Republicans or white Independents but rather by white Democrats.

Since April, white Democratic approval of Obama's handling of the economy is down 20 points, from 80 percent to 60 percent. And, nearly as many white Democrats now strongly disapprove of how he's dealing with the issue as those who strongly approve (25 strongly disapprove; 28 strongly approve).

(Huge thank you to Post polling director Jon Cohen for crunching the numbers!)

Why does this crush of data matter -- particularly for the 2010 election?

As we wrote in an earlier column, recent historical trends suggest that white voters will comprise a larger chunk of the coming midterm electorate than they did in 2008 -- making the erosion of Obama's numbers a major concern for House strategists.

White voters made up 79 percent of the 2006 midterm electorate and comprised 74 percent of the 2008 vote. If the 2010 electoral composition mirrors that of 2006, one Democratic official who closely monitors House race predicted "massive losses" for House and Senate Democrats in November.

The Atlantic's Ron Brownstein has written extensively -- and smartly -- about Obama's struggles with white voters both during and after the 2008 election. (Worth noting: Obama outperformed the party's last two presidential nominees among all white voters in 2008.)

Way back in January Brownstein wrote these prophetic lines:

"The depth -- and breadth -- of the decline in [Obama's] support among whites ought to be giving Democrats heartburn. That's especially so because a falloff in minority participation during the midterm election makes it likely whites will likely cast a slightly larger share of the vote in November than the 74 percent they did in 2008. In each of the three major elections since 2008 -- the GOP's wins in the 2009 New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races and Republican Scott Brown's stunning upset victory Tuesday in the Massachusetts Senate contest -- the GOP candidate ran notably better among whites in their state than John McCain did against Obama in 2008."

The Post/ABC poll provides some grim backup -- if you are a Democrat -- for Brownstein's point. In the overall generic ballot question -- "If the election for U.S. House were being held today would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate" -- the Republican candidate took 47 percent to the Democrat's 46 percent.

But, among white registered voters, Republicans held a 20-point -- 56 percent to 36 percent -- generic ballot edge and among white likely voters the margin for Republicans was 23 points.

What these numbers mean is that congressional Democrats need one of two things to happen to avoid major losses this fall: 1) Obama's numbers must rebound among white voters in some significant way or 2) The Democratic National Committee's plan to re-create elements of the 2008 electoral coalition must work, changing the face of the traditional midterm electoral in a meaningful manner.

Neither scenario, at the moment, is all that likely -- which may well have something to do with the increasingly public airing of discontent aimed at the White House from House leaders.