2010 Midterms Analysis: House Generic, Senate RV/ LV Polls, Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Nov. 26, 2010

Conventional and Unconventional Wisdom

The 2010 midterms are history. The typical reaction of the pundits is to promote the conventional wisdom that it was a GOP blowout of epic proportions - even bigger than 1994. Yes, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. The unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote indicates in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different.

As usual, the pundits accept the recorded vote and final exit polls as gospel and claim that they show that Obama must move to the center – as if he’s been part of the “professional left” all along. They never question the official results. That’s why they’re pundits: they know that they are paid to present the recorded vote as if it represented the will of the voters. So they avoid the subject of: systemic election fraud - otherwise they might find themselves suspended indefinitely at best.

It is standard operating procedure for the exit pollsters to force the Final National Exit Poll (and final state exit polls) to match the recorded vote.

The pundits always assume that the Final NEP returning voter mix is legitimate even though it is always forced to match the recorded vote. As usual, their implicit assumption is that election fraud was not a factor. But it always is.

Given that election fraud is systemic, what does the combination of pre-election registered and likely voter polls, preliminary and final exit polls and recorded vote data indicate? Well, we still have unverifiable elections and a strange reluctance of the Democratic leadership to do anything about it.

This analysis utilizes final likely and registered state and national pre-election polls along with preliminary and final exit polls. Likely voter ( LV ) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. Since 2000, LV polls have closely matched the recorded vote while RV polls closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls.

2010 Election Forecast Model

House: The GOP has a 239-188 seat margin.

The model predicted:

A 234-201 GOP House based on the final 30 LV Generic polls (the GOP led by 48.7-41.9%).

A 221-214 GOP House based on the final 19 RV Generic polls (the GOP led by 45.1-44.4%).

The Democratic margin was 6.1% better in the RV polls than the LV polls.

The GOP led the Final National Exit Poll by 7.4%, within 0.62% of the 30 Generic LV poll margin.

Senate: The Democrats have a 51-47 seat margin.

The model predicted:

A 50-48 Democratic Senate based on 37 LV polls (the GOP led by 48.1-43.5%).

A 53-45 Democratic Senate based on a combination of 18 RV and 19 LV polls (the Democrats led by 45.2-44.6%).

The Democrats did 5% better in the RV polls.

CNN/Time provided RV and LV polling data for 18 Senate races (Table 1). Note that RV polls were not listed in the realclearpolitics.com polling averages. The Democrats led the RV polls in 11 states. They led the LV polls in 8 states (including the WV tie). They won 9.

The Democrats led the RV poll average by 49.2-40.6%. They led the corresponding LV polls by 46.6-45.8%.

The Democrats did 8% better in the RV polls.

Table 2 compares 18 likely voter and exit polls to the recorded vote.

The average GOP 4.2% recorded margin exceeded the average exit poll margin by 2.9%.

The average GOP 6.3% LV poll margin exceeded the average recorded margin by 2.1%.

The Democrats were going to lose seats in the Senate and House. They were surely going to lose in Arkansas . And they did. They were expected to hold on to CA, WA, WV, NY, DE and OR. And they did.

But IL, NV, PA, CO and WI were expected to be close. And they were. The Democrats won NV and CO. Colorado and Washington vote primarily by mail. The GOP won WI, IL and PA. Or did they? The Democrats led the final Illinois and Pennsylvania RV polls. The states vote by machine.

The Final National Exit Poll: Always Forced to Match the Recorded Vote

The 2010 Final National Exit Poll indicated that 45% of the electorate were returning Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters. Obama's recorded vote margin was 52.9-45.6%. Of course, the pundits will claim that the 7.3% discrepancy was due to millions of unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010. Setting the Final NEP returning voter mix to the 2008 recorded vote, the discrepancy from the 19 RV poll margin was an even lower 0.07%.

In 2008 the National Election Pool, a consortium of six mainstream media giants which sponsors the exit polls, decided not to release unadjusted (or preliminary) state and national exit poll data. And they won’t in 2010, either. They don’t want anyone to see the adjustments they had to make to the return voter mix and/or the vote shares in order to match the recorded vote.

In the exit polls, changes are made to the return voter mix and vote share as the polls are adjusted to match the changing vote count in real time - with no change in the number of respondents. Of course, this is standard operating procedure. Who cares if the central tabulators are being hacked in real-time?

Obama won the 2008 recorded vote by 9.5 million. But his True Vote margin was at least twice that; his recorded share understated his True share by 4-5%. If the 2010 NEP returning vote mix is adjusted to match the 2008 recorded share, the Democratic share is within 1% of the GOP - matching the pre-election RV polls. The adjusted 53/45% mix includes the discount for unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010.

Final 2008 National Exit Poll 2008 True Vote

(forced to match recorded vote) (Mix set to 2004 True Vote)

Voted 04 Mix Obama McCain Other Voted 04 Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV 13% 71% 27% 2% DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%

Kerry 37% 89% 9% 2% Kerry 46% 89% 9% 2%

Bush 46% 17% 82% 1% Bush 40% 17% 82% 1%

Other 4% 66% 24% 10% Other 1% 66% 24% 10%

Total 100.0% 52.6% 45.5% 1.9% Total 100.0% 57.6% 40.7% 1.7%

Final 2010 National Exit Poll Final 2010 National Exit Poll (adjusted)

(forced to match recorded vote) (Mix set to 2008 recorded vote)

Voted 08 Mix Dem Rep Other Voted 08 Mix Dem Rep Other

Obama 45% 84% 13% 3% Obama 53% 84% 13% 3%

McCain 45% 7% 91% 2% McCain 45% 7% 91% 2%

Other 3% 33% 56% 11% Other 2% 33% 56% 11%

DNV 4% 38% 60% 2% DNV - 38% 60% 2%

Total 97% 43.5% 50.9% 2.7% Total 100% 48.3% 49.0% 2.7%

LV avg 30 polls 41.9% 48.7% 9.4% RV avg 19 polls 44.4% 45.1% 10.5%

LV margin discrepancy from Final total: -0.62% RV margin discrepancy from Final total: 0.07%

Why Oregon is Important

In the 1992 presidential election, Oregon had the highest exit poll discrepancy (13.6%) of any state. In 1996, 10% of votes cast were uncounted. Oregon had it wrong in 1992 and 1996. So in 1998, it implemented vote by mail. It is the only state which mandates randomly selected counties for hand counts. In 2000, Oregon exactly matched Gore’s recorded margin (Nader had 6%). Oregon had it right in 2000.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded national vote by 50.7-48.3%. Oregon and Colorado were the only battleground states in which Kerry improved his share over Gore. His 51.4% Oregon share closely matched the unadjusted 52% state exit poll aggregate, unlike the other Battleground states. Kerry did 3.1% better in Oregon than he did nationally. Oregon had it right in 2004, just like it did in 2000.

The evidence is overwhelming that the 2004 election was stolen. The Oregon recorded vote confirms it. Exit pollsters have not released the unadjusted 2008 exit polls so we can’t compare them to the recorded vote shares. But we have the 2008 National Exit Poll. It’s a smoking gun, just like it was in 2004 and 2006. The NEP indicates an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters, a 450% turnout of living third-party voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Since an impossible returning voter mix was necessary in order to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote had to be impossible as well. It is therefore a certainty that Obama did much better than his recorded 52.9% share indicates.

In 2008, Oregon voted 56.7% for Obama, matching the National True Vote Model. Unadjusted exit polls have not been released. Oregon had it right in 2008, just like it did in 2004 and 2000. But that is to be expected. As a battleground state, Oregon should be representative of the True national electorate.

In 2010 the Oregon senate race was never in question. Senator Ron Wyden led by 20% in the pre-election LV polls. He had a 57% recorded share, matching Obama’s 2008 share. How does one explain the 25% discrepancy from the GOP 52-45% national margin?

Oregon had it right in 2010, just like it did in 2008, 2004 and 2000. Since the 2000 election, Oregon ’s recorded vote has consistently matched pre-election polls and the unadjusted national exit polls. Is this unique track record due to the fact that Oregon mandates hand counts of optically scanned ballots in randomly selected counties as a check on the central tabulators machine counts? The historical evidence strongly suggests that Oregon ’s random hand-counts are a deterrent to Election Fraud.

Consider the close senate races the Democrats lost. How did they differ from Oregon ?

Wisconsin gave Obama 56.2% in 2008, closely matching his Oregon share (56.7%). But the popular progressive Sen. Russ Finegold lost by 5% in a traditionally progressive state. He trailed the final RV poll by 3% (within the 4% pre-election poll margin of error). How does one explain the 5% loss and Wyden’s 20% win in Oregon ? Was it because Wyden was a popular incumbent? So was Finegold. Or was it due to unverifiable touch screens (DRE) and/or the central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

Illinois : Obama 61.9%

Giannoulias lost by 2%. He led the RV polls by 42-38 and the LV polls by 43-42. Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

Pennsylvania : Obama 54.5%

The progressive Sestak lost by 2% He led the RV polls by 47-43 and trailed the LV polls by 49-45. He led the exit poll at 1015pm but fell behind at 117am as the poll was being matched to the vote with no change in respondents. Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

How come these battleground states shifted to the GOP while Oregon was a Democratic landslide? Is Oregon no longer a battleground state? Or is it because unlike the other battleground states, Oregon ’s recorded vote reflects the actual intent of the voters due to the fact that it is the only 100% paper ballot state which mandates that counties are randomly selected for hand-counts as a check on the central tabulator machine counts?

Consider the senate races the Democrats won. How are they similar to Oregon ?

Washington : Obama 57.4%

Murray won by 52-48%, matching the RV poll margin. Voting is nearly 100% vote by maill.

Colorado : Obama 53.7%

Bennett won by a slim 48-47%. He led RV polls by 5%. Voting method is mail and optical scanners.

California : Obama 61.9%

Boxer won by 52-42%. She led the RV polls by 53-37, LV 50-45. Voting is by mail and optical scannners.

New York : Obama 62.8%

Gillibrand won by 62-36%, a close match to the 60-33 RV poll. Optical scanners replaced levers.

Schumer won by 65-33%, a close match to the 63-30 RV poll.

Washington now votes virtually 100% by mail. Colorado and California also had a high percentage of mail-in paper and absentee ballots. Is it just a coincidence that the Democrats won these states? And that in NY, both senate candidates exceeded Obama’s recorded share by 3-4%.

Fraud Factors

In 2004, election fraud in California and New York accounted for approximately 2.3 million of Bush’s 3.0 million “mandate”. But 2010 was not a presidential election; there was no incentive for the GOP to pad the national vote in solid Democratic states.

The Democrats lost close elections that were ripe for fraud (WI, IL and PA). The states had these factors in common:

1) Unverifiable DRE’s

2) No mandated random hand-counts of machine-counted optical scanned ballots.

3) Progressive candidates

4) The GOP led the final LV polls

5) Democrats led the final RV polls (IL,PA) and were close in WI

6) Late exit poll shift to the GOP

7) In the senate exit polls, a percentage is given for returning “Other” and “DNV” – but the vote shares are missing. Why?

In 2000, there were 180,000 uncounted ballots in Florida , the vast majority for Gore.

In 2002, Georgia Sen. Max Cleland lost despite a solid lead in pre-election polls. Georgia was the first state to vote exclusively with DRE touch screens.

In 2004, Kerry won the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate by 52-47%. But Bush won the recorded vote by 2.4% - a 7.4% margin (WPE) differential.

In 2006, 18,000 votes mysteriously vanished in Florida's 13th congressional district. There was no investigation.

In 2008, Obama won the New Hampshire primary hand-counts, but lost the machine counts by the same margin. The media reported Hillary’s “miracle” win.

In 2010, Martha Coakley won the hand-counted ballots but lost the machine counts in the Massachusetts special election for Ted Kennedy’s seat. She conceded long before the votes were counted. In the South Carolina Democratic primary, Vic Rawl easily won the hand-counted paper ballots, but unknown Alvin Green won the machine counts. In a pitiful post-election “investigation”, Green was the chosen candidate despite the overwhelming evidence of fraud.

Impossible 1988-2004 State Presidential Exit Poll Shifts to the GOP

In Jan. 2005, exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released the 2004 Election Evaluation Report in response to the 2004 exit poll controversy, but it also included unadjusted exit poll data for 1988-2004. The data revealed that the massive 2004 exit poll discrepancy was not an aberration. The pollsters concluded that although their 2004 survey design was near-perfect, the 6.5% within precinct discrepancy (WPE) was due to reluctance on the part of Bush voters to be interviewed. This theory was refuted by the exit pollsters own data which showed just the opposite: Bush voter response was greater in Bush strongholds than in Kerry strongholds. But the full report showed much more than that.

In the five presidential elections from 1988-2004, there were 238 state presidential exit polls, 194 of which red-shifted from the Democrat to the Republican. Of the 108 exit polls that exceeded the 2% margin of error, 99 red-shifted to the Republicans. Of the 65 that exceeded a very conservative 3% MoE, all but one red-shifted to the GOP. At the 95% confidence level, one would expect 12 of the 238 polls to exceed the MoE and be evenly split between the Democrat and the Republican. The probability of the shifts magnitude and direction were less than 1 in 10^30. The bulk of the discrepancies were in strong Democratic states (4.9 WPE) and the Battleground states (3.8 WPE). In GOP red states, the average WPE was just 2.3. Why the miscounts?

Prior to 2004, they were primarily due to millions of uncounted votes in each election (70-80% Democratic). The HAVA-blessed unverifiable DRE’s only caused some of the damage; the rest was due to central tabulators which aggregated votes cast on DRE’s optical scanners, mechanical levers and punched cards. Virtually 100% of the votes are tallied on the central computers. Optical scanners have the virtue of a paper ballot, unlike the other voting machines – but the paper ballots are never counted (the 2008 MN senate election was an exception).

Table 1: Registered vs. Likely Voters vs. Recorded Vote

CNN/Time Poll Group

0.96 correlation ratio between RV and LV margins Discrepancy Discrepancy 18 RV full sample LV sub-sample Recorded Share Final - RV Poll RV Margin Polls Dem Rep Margin Dem Rep Margin Dem Rep Margin Dem GOP WSD Unwtd Avg 46.4 41.1 5.3 45.0 46.2 (1.2) 48.3 47.9 0.4 1.9 6.8 (4.9) Wtd Avg 48.7 39.6 9.1 46.6 45.8 0.9 9 9 Win 11 7 4 7 10 (3) AK 24 36 (12) 23 37 (14) 40.7 59.3 (18.6) 16.7 23.3 6.6 AR 42 53 (11) 41 55 (14) 37.2 57.6 (20.4) (4.8) 4.6 9.4 CA 53 37 16 50 45 5 52.2 42.4 9.8 (0.8) 5.4 6.2 CO 49 44 5 46 47 (1) 47.5 47.0 0.5 (1.5) 3.0 4.5 CT 56 37 19 54 44 10 54.2 44.2 10.0 (1.8) 7.2 9.0 DE 61 32 29 57 38 19 56.6 40.0 16.6 (4.4) 8.0 12.4 FL 31 42 (11) 32 46 (14) 31.5 44.0 (12.5) 0.5 2.0 1.5 IL 42 38 4 43 42 1 46.2 48.2 (2.3) 4.1 10.4 6.3 KY 44 46 (2) 43 50 (7) 44.1 55.9 (11.8) 0.1 9.9 9.8 MO 39 50 (11) 40 53 (13) 40.6 54.3 (13.7) 1.6 4.3 2.7 NV 43 39 4 45 49 (4) 50.2 44.6 5.6 7.2 5.6 (1.6) NY1 60 33 27 55 41 14 62.3 37.7 24.6 2.3 4.7 2.4 NY2 63 30 33 57 41 16 66.5 33.5 33.1 3.5 3.5 (0.1) OH 43 49 (6) 40 55 (15) 39.0 57.3 (18.3) (4.0) 8.3 12.3 PA 47 43 4 45 49 (4) 49.0 51.0 (2.0) 2.0 8.0 6.0 WA 48 44 4 51 43 8 51.9 48.1 1.6 2.8 5.2 2.4 WI 45 48 (3) 44 52 (8) 47.0 51.9 (4.9) 2.0 3.9 1.9 WV 45 38 7 44 44 0 53.5 43.4 10.1 8.5 5.4 (3.1)

Table 2: Recorded Vote vs. Preliminary Exit Poll vs. RCP LV Poll Margin

Recorded GOP Exit Poll GOP Margin RCP10/31 State Dem GOP Margin Dem GOP Margin Vote-EP Margin LA 37.7% 56.6% 18.9% 43.5% 53.0% 9.5% 9.4% 15.0% OH 39.0% 57.3% 18.3% 44.6% 53.9% 9.3% 9.0% 18.2% FL* 50.0% 48.8% -1.2% 53.2% 45.8% -7.4% 6.2% 19.0% NH 36.5% 60.4% 23.9% 40.1% 57.9% 17.8% 6.1% 15.0% WI 47.0% 51.9% 4.9% 49.5% 50.0% 0.5% 4.4% 7.7% CT 54.2% 44.2% -10.0% 56.4% 42.1% -14.3% 4.3% -10.7% AR 37.2% 57.6% 20.4% 40.2% 57.3% 17.1% 3.3% 18.3% WA 51.9% 48.1% -3.8% 52.7% 45.8% -6.9% 3.1% 0.0% MO 40.6% 54.3% 13.7% 42.5% 53.5% 11.0% 2.7% 10.4% CO 47.5% 47.0% -0.5% 49.5% 47.0% -2.5% 2.0% 2.3% IL 46.2% 48.2% 2.3% 47.0% 47.5% 0.5% 1.8% 2.8% DE 56.6% 40.0% -16.6% 57.7% 39.8% -17.9% 1.3% -14.0% KY 44.1% 55.9% 11.8% 44.5% 55.0% 10.5% 1.3% 11.0% PA 49.0% 51.0% 2.0% 50.1% 49.9% -0.2% 1.8% 4.0% CA 52.2% 42.4% -9.8% 53.5% 43.5% -10.0% 0.2% -4.3% WV 53.5% 43.4% -10.1% 53.6% 43.5% -10.1% 0.0% -4.0% IN 40.0% 54.7% 14.7% 40.5% 56.1% 15.6% -0.9% 19.3% NV 50.2% 44.6% -5.6% 47.5% 46.5% -1.0% -4.6% 4.0% Average 46.3% 50.4% 4.1 47.9% 49.4% 1.5% 2.9% 6.3% Correlation Dem 1.00 -0.94 -0.99 0.95 0.96 -0.96 -0.42 -0.85 RCP -0.85 0.85 0.86 -0.81 0.85 0.84 0.37 1.00

Table 3: Late Exit Poll Timeline

PA 117am 2666 respondents Mix GOP Dem Male 48 56 44 Female 52 45 54 Total 100.0 50.3 49.2 Final 51.0 49.0 IL 203am 2394 Mix GOP Dem Male 49 50 45 Female 51 46 49 Total 100 48.0 47.0 Final 48.4 46.1 CO 611am 1048 Mix GOP Dem Male 50 54 43 Female 50 40 56 Total 100.0 47.0 49.5 Final 49.8 50.2 WI 1053pm 2169 Mix GOP Dem Male 50 56 42 Female 50 48 52 Total 100 52.0 47.0 Final 52.4 47.6 WA 609am 1129 Mix GOP Dem Male 48 51 47 Female 52 41 58 Total 100.0 45.8 52.7 Final 48.1 51.9 NV 208am 3785 Mix GOP Dem Male 50 48 46 Female 50 42 53 Total 100.0 45.0 49.5 Final 44.6 50.2 FL 1119am 3176 Mix GOP Dem Male 44 54 18 Female 56 44 23 Total 100.0 48.4 20.8 WV 1142pm 1723 Mix GOP Dem Male 48 46 51 Female 52 41 56 Total 100 43.4 53.6 Final 43.4 53.5 MO 204am 2507 Mix GOP Dem Male 50 58 36 Female 50 49 46 Total 100.0 53.5 41.0 Final 54.3 40.6 CT 1157pm 1455 Mix GOP Dem Male 51 45 52 Female 49 39 60 Total 100.0 42.1 55.9 Final 44.2 54.2

Table 4: Final exit polls vs. Adjusted Returning Voter Mix

2010 Final National Exit Poll 2008 Final National Exit Poll

17504 respondents 17836 respondents

Gender Mix Dem Rep Other Mix Obama McCain Other

Male 48% 41% 55% 4% 47% 49% 48% 3%

Female 52% 48% 49% 3% 53% 56% 43% 1%

Share 100% 44.6% 51.9% 3.5% 100% 52.7% 45.4% 1.9%