Viju Cherian

The reasons for the current flashpoint between the Narendra Modi-led Centre and the Mamata Banerjee-led West Bengal is the overlapping of administrative jurisdictions, judicial interpretations and political ambitions which is soon becoming a tangled mess of complex issues.

On Sunday, February 3, a team of about 40 officials of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) arrived at the residence of Kolkata police commissioner Rajeev Kumar to question him in relation to the investigation into two Ponzi scams. The CBI team was arrested by the state police and released later. Protesting the CBI’s ‘overreach’, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has gone on an indefinite dharna to ‘Save the Constitution’.

On Monday, February 4, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Centre approached the Supreme Court with a plea that the state government was refusing to cooperate with its investigations into the scams — particularly the refusal of Kumar. The court has set February 5 for hearing CBI’s plea.

A double-edged sword

The fact that the state government is being investigated turns the heat on its actions. At the same time, the pressing hurry at which the CBI is operating, which many allege is under the instructions of the central government, points a needle of suspicion at the BJP. After all, a few years ago, wasn’t it the Supreme Court that questioned the independence of the CBI saying that it was a “caged parrot speaking in its master's voice”.

However, irrespective of the court’s verdict on February 5, much will also depend on how each party takes forward the narrative to the people.

Mamata Banerjee is no stranger to confrontations — her political journey is a testimony of protests and dharnas. It is no coincidence that Banerjee is now protesting at the same venue where she sat in protest 13 years ago against the land acquisition in Singur.

If Banerjee is in her elements as a protester, the BJP is a party that itches for a confrontation, especially in West Bengal. This means that the CM’s dharna is a double-edged sword that could cut both ways.

BJP’s calculations

By now it is clear that the BJP is betting big on West Bengal. There are reasons for this.

With the once-powerful Left almost relegated to the margins and the Congress only cosmetically better off, the space for the primary Opposition in the state is up for grabs. Even if it does not make major gains in the upcoming general elections, the saffron party will have the 2021 assembly polls in sight. While the dharna theatre is underway, a BJP delegation has also met the Election Commission of India (ECI) to complain against being denied the right to campaign in Bengal. Clearly, the BJP is in it for the long haul.

Another reason could be that if there is constant pressure on the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in Bengal, it will prevent Banerjee from being an active part of the anti-BJP bloc. The BJP’s calculation could be that a preoccupied Banerjee would weaken the Mahagathbandhan.

However, at the moment the TMC is the way ahead of the other political parties in West Bengal. Thus, even if this round of election results goes to the TMC, the BJP will have succeeded in upping the ante against the TMC and creating a narrative that Banerjee and her government are protecting scamsters.

Advantage Mamata?

Much of it depends on the court’s ruling on Tuesday, but the dharna could also benefit Banerjee and her TMC.

The anti-BJP grand alliance is a crowded place where it is still not clear what are the alliances and who is first among equals. Every regional leader with a fleeting chance and unbridled ambition has expressed willingness (or sounded it through the party cadre) to be Prime Minister. In such a scenario, Banerjee projecting her fight against the Centre as a fight to save the Constitution and the system will turn the lens on her. Such a protest also becomes a venue for further distilling the opposition brew.

Most opposition parties have expressed their support and are standing behind Banerjee as she takes on Modi — it is this perception that makes the dharna important. If the anti-BJP parties have a shot at forming a government after the polls and the TMC has a sizeable number of MPs, Banerjee could stand head and shoulders above the others.

Thus, Mamata Banerjee’s current dharna is a high-stakes political game. They say that fortune favours the brave — but in politics?

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