What are the names of the groups that are active in Idlib?

There are many armed groups in Idlib, that go by various names. The largest is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (previously the al-Nusra Front), but you also have Ahrar al-Sham, the Sham Legion (Faylaq al-Sham), the Northern Division (Knights of Justice Brigade), the Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria (TIP), the Mountain Hawks Brigade, the Army of Mujahideen, the National Front for the Liberation of Syria, the Right Brigade (Liwa al-Haqq) and many other smaller groups. It is important to point out that most of these are or have been affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS in the past and many of these gangs get direct covert support from the Erdogan regime in Turkey. In fact, some of them even operate outside Idlib in Turkish occupied areas all the way from Afrin to Jarablus.

How large are these forces?

Each group has thousands of members, anywhere from 1,000-8,000 a piece. They have divided up the land and each of these groups controls pockets of Idlib, but the largest is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham.

What role does Idlib play in the Syrian War?

Idlib is important since it borders Turkey, the primary backer of extremists in Syria. The terrain is also mountainous, which makes it ideal to defend. Because of this, the Turkish regime of Erdogan took advantage of the early uprisings in Syria and began utilizing his brand of religious fascism to increase the power of Islamic extremists and annex the territory of Idlib for Turkey. By spreading a radical and warped version of Islam, Erdogan thinks he is increasing his own power in the region. You see, Idlib is a garden to Erdogan, where he thinks he can grow his own extremist army to help propel his larger Ottoman project. This all fits within Turkey’s plans of annexing territory in northwestern Syria where they can establish an extremist-run dystopia, governed by the rebranded ideology of al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Which international powers would be fighting in Idlib and why? And what are their alliances?

Each country has their own interests in the region, especially Russia, Turkey, and Iran, as all three of them are afraid of and resistant to democratizing changes in the Middle East. Turkey especially was relying on the assorted gangs of ISIS to stop this evolution, but many of them have been defeated thanks to our forces, so now they have al-Qaeda who has been renamed Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

I would note that sadly, if you follow the news about Idlib, you will see that the conflict there has nothing to do with Syria anymore, but it is rather an international stage for the global powers to conduct their own proxy wars. Russia, Turkey, and Iran believe they should decide the fate of Idlib and who can live there in the future. We oppose this. Turkey, Russia, and Iran have also been using the meetings in Astana and Sochi to debate the fate of Idlib, without considering what will benefit the Syrian people. These states want to bury the initial revolution which began in 2011 within Syria, as they don’t actually care about what Syrians want. Their actions only destabilize the situation more and spread destruction, which is what they want. In fact, they are inviting in international extremist fighters to sow even more chaos. What these powers want to do is stop a true democracy from flourishing in Syria, as then the people in their own countries may want it as well.

What is the role of Turkey in Idlib and how is it connected to their wider occupation of northern Syria?

It’s first important to point out that Erdogan is lying about Idlib and deceiving the world about his real agenda, which is to use jihadis to carry out his policies on behalf of his regime. He views himself as the ‘Sultan’ of a new Ottoman Empire, which includes annexing Idlib and northwestern Syria for Ankara.

Erdogan also wants to destroy the Rojava project in Northern Syria and eradicate all the democratic gains that people have made under the PYD. Since destroying Rojava or the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria (DFNS) model is a top priority of Erdogan, he’s willing to give concessions to Russia and Iran, as long as he thinks it harms the Kurds and their democratic model for all ethnicities. This is also his blueprint when he deals with some European countries such as Germany. He will compromise as long as what he gets first harms the Kurds in northern Syria, which he feels threatened by.

You see, he’s threatened by us because Turkey is failing economically, politically, and militarily, so Erdogan needs something to distract the Turkish people and make them think he is doing something on their behalf. To do that, now that ISIS—who Turkey was arming from the start—has mostly been defeated, Turkey is replacing them with Turkish soldiers themselves.

What is the ideal outcome that the YPG/J would prefer in Idlib?

We would prefer that Idlib is returned back into the hands of the Syrian people. We will not accept the current situation where international powers use it for their own means. We want the map of Syria to return to how it was before Turkey invaded, as they cannot be allowed to annex Syrian lands for themselves. We would also like to see the same democratic model that we have in the DFNS throughout all of Syria, including Idlib, but realize that will take time and compromise. But our first priority is removing Turkey’s army and their international jihadis from Syria.

If Assad does take back Idlib, how would that affect the situation for the YPG/J?

We don’t believe that Assad alone can take over Idlib, or that he will even try if he is alone. Assad can only fully take over Idlib with Russian assistance. However, we now see that all of Russia’s recent bluster was just empty talk about liberating Idlib, or removing the terrorists from there. Now it looks like there will be no attempt to liberate Idlib from the extremists who control it for the rest of 2018, based on a deal between Erdogan and Putin.

Nevertheless, liberating Syria from all the extremists is very important to us and a goal we will never give up. The Syrians of Idlib deserve democracy as well, not a Turkish-backed occupation.

The interview was conducted by Ronahi Elik and Dr. Thoreau Redcrow with the Kevok Foundation