Illinois’ primary election Tuesday produced a stunning result — little-known conservative state Rep. Jeanne Ives nearly upset Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. Even in defeat, Ives’ performance raised serious questions about Rauner’s ability to win reelection in November in a blue state with President Donald Trump as the backdrop.

Democrats, meanwhile, got the result the party establishment has long sought in the governor’s race: J.B. Pritzker cruised to victory in his primary, putting a free-spending billionaire at the top of the ticket in the general election.


But that wasn’t the only closely watched Democratic race on the ballot. In a hard-fought primary viewed as a test of whether there’s still a place in the Democratic Party for cultural conservatives — especially those who oppose abortion rights — veteran Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski squeaked to victory over challenger Marie Newman, who was backed by major abortion rights and progressive groups.

Here are POLITICO’s five takeaways from the second primary election of 2018:

The Pritzker steamroller

Pritzker had to overcome unflattering FBI tapes of his private conversations, tax issues and party-machine taint but with the help of $70 million from his personal fortune and a statewide infrastructure plan, Pritzker went on to crush the Democratic field.

Pritzker had long led in the polls in this six-way race, but few predicted he’d win by roughly 20 percentage points over credentialed challengers Daniel Biss and Chris Kennedy. While Pritzker spent heavily on TV advertising, he also built up a statewide ground game that he’s already counting on to help him in November. “I’ve seen the enthusiasm,” Pritzker recently told POLITICO. “I’m trying to make sure they show up on Tuesday, but I’m also trying to make sure they’re ready for November.”

Lipinski’s ace in the hole

In the toughest fight of Lipinski’s career, abortion opponents delivered critical support in the final days.

Lipinski’s campaign was slow to respond to the assault waged by Newman, an abortion rights supporter who had the backing of a number of powerful progressive groups, including EMILY’S List and Planned Parenthood. Enter Susan B. Anthony List — a group that backs candidates who oppose abortion rights. For the first time in a decade, SBA List got involved on behalf of a congressional Democrat — and it went all in for Lipinski. The group deployed 70 volunteers in the district for four days, targeting 17,000 voters who oppose abortion rights, including knocking on more than 26,000 doors. And SBA List bundled money for Lipinski, sent two pieces of voter contact mail and produced digital ads on his behalf.

Illinois Democratic candidate for Governor J.B. Pritzker (center) and his Lieutenant Governor pick Juliana Stratton (left) wave to supporters during his primary election night victory on March 20 in Chicago, Illinois. | Joshua Lott/Getty Images

In a razor-close race where the two candidates were separated by less than 2,000 votes, that might have made the difference.

Rauner’s in big trouble in November

Yes, it’s a win. But it was a weak, lifeless victory — an anemic performance from an incumbent governor who vastly outspent his competitor. In a solid blue state where he’s already polling below Trump, Rauner now must contend with a divided party as he squares off against a billionaire Democrat.

Rauner’s poor showing is in part due to his dismissal of Ives as a “fringe candidate.” Rather than focusing on her, the governor pointed his campaign weaponry at Pritzker. Getting the GOP base motivated again to support him will be one challenge, but the herculean task will be bringing Ives’ conservative supporters back into the fold in November.

The Chicago machine is still humming

Pritzker was criticized for being too close to the “machine,” the Chicago political organization powered by Democratic Party Leader Mike Madigan. So were Lipinski and Kwame Raoul. Yet they all won — Raoul captured the Democratic nomination for attorney general against a crowded field — ensuring that the machine lives on and remains a force to be reckoned with.

It’s not what it used to be, but the organization can still deliver. In Cook County, Board President Toni Preckwinkle easily held onto her post. And aside from boosting Raoul, the machine also thwarted one of its top foes in the AG race, Scott Drury, who recently called Madigan “probably a bigger bully than Trump.” Despite receiving a $1 million campaign infusion just days ago, Drury finished in the single digits in Tuesday’s vote.

The machine did, however, suffer one big rebuke: the defeat of Cook County Democratic Party Chairman and County Assessor Joe Berrios, who fell decisively to newcomer Fritz Kaegi.

Democratic energy is surging

Democratic primary turnout was up across the state — overall, it was triple what it was in 2014, according to the Democratic Governors Association.

And turnout was 30 percent higher on Tuesday than in 2010, a more comparable primary election since there was a competitive Democratic primary that year. In an ominous sign, Republicans saw an estimated drop of 30 percent in turnout over 2014, a highly competitive primary in which Rauner edged out three other top contenders.

