Be aware, but don’t be alarmed.

Hurricane Irma may impact East Tennessee if it treks in this direction, as some projections indicate, but the extremely dangerous Category 5 storm won’t pack the wallop here that it will bring during its initial coastal landfall.

Packing winds of 185 mph, Irma is expected to hit or brush by several Caribbean islands in the next few days as a high-pressure system steers the storm toward Florida, where it may make landfall this weekend.

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Several predicted paths show Irma impacting Florida and then turning north toward East Tennessee.

“There is still a lot of uncertainty of how it will affect us – if it will affect us at all,” cautioned Jeremy Buckles, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Morristown, on Tuesday afternoon. He said any impact from Irma in East Tennessee likely would be, “breezy conditions, heavy rain and wet soil,” which he said could potentially “take down a few trees.”

Hurricane remnants aren't uncommon here

Although landlocked Tennessee would seem to be safely out of harm’s way from hurricanes, that’s not always the case. Just last week, for example, the remnants of Hurricane Harvey led to widespread flooding in West and Middle Tennessee.

Meanwhile, “It’s not uncommon to have remnants from tropical systems to move up to East Tennessee,” Buckles said.

In 1992, the devastating Category 5 Hurricane Andrew passed over Florida then churned into the Gulf of Mexico to make landfall again over Louisiana before moving inland to dissipate over East Tennessee.

In 2004, both Hurricane Frances (a Category 4 at its peak) and Hurricane Ivan (Category 5) had significant impact on East Tennessee.

Frances crossed over Central Florida from the Atlantic and then into the Gulf before coming ashore again over the Florida panhandle and working its way toward East Tennessee.

Ivan came ashore just west of where Frances made landfall and also trekked to East Tennessee. Damage was severe enough that FEMA made emergency declarations for about a dozen East Tennessee counties (including Roane and Campbell) as a result of Frances damage, and more than a dozen Western North Carolina counties on and near the Tennessee border as a result of damage from both Frances and Ivan.

Andrew, Frances and Ivan all followed paths similar to some of those projected for Irma – and none of those powerful predecessors ever had sustained winds as high as Irma’s 185 mph.

Mountain Effect?

Buckles said that though many factors contribute to steering hurricanes, those that make landfall to our south generally cause Tennessee the most problems.

Also, whereas tropical systems that come ashore from the east (as over North Carolina) tend to run into interference from the mountains, systems that approach Tennessee from the south don’t encounter such complicating barriers when they come north through the valley.

He said the plateau to the west of East Tennessee can also run some interference with approaching systems, though “to a smaller degree” than that of the higher-altitude Appalachians to the east.

Valley Effect?

The Tennessee Valley has often been attributed to “trapping” weather systems, and Buckles said there is some truth to that assertion in the winter months.

He pointed out that since colder air sinks and warmer air rises, cold air can sink into the valley and create atmospheric conditions (including ice storms and freezing rains) that can slow the warming-up process that occurs in the surrounding higher elevations.

However, this isn’t the case for tropical weather systems, which are generally fueled by warm air.

Tornadoes?

Buckles said that while East Tennessee is vulnerable to tornadoes during spring months, the region rarely has issues from tornadoes spawned by tropical systems this time of year.

He said the area of a tropical storm system most prone to tornadoes is usually in the right (east) front quadrant of the system, where instability from wind sheer and friction with land can cause spin.

The meteorologist reiterated that Hurricane Irma is not an imminent threat to East Tennessee and that residents should simply, “continue to monitor the forecast over the week” for the possibility of heavy rain and gusty winds.

And Buckles said whatever impact Irma has on Tennessee (if any), it will be nothing compared to what the storm will likely have in store for the coast.