I've been playing in these numbers rackets for a couple of decades. Here's some of the wisdom and fortune-cookie logic I've accumulated over the years. Share your own ideas in the comments.



• Floor early, upside late.

• When a player talks about his seasonal goals, pay no mind. They're all hopeless optimists. The same theme applies when a player discusses an optimistic injury return date. Listen to the doctors (if you listen to anyone on injuries), not the players.

• Auctions are more fair and more dynamic, and take a little longer. Drafts are more tidy and easier to work with, but most of the room never gets a shot at Ray Rice or Aaron Rodgers. It's up to you: do you want to play checkers or chess?

• If you're still in college, take Economics electives. That stuff is all applicable to our fantasy world. Wall Street is also worth a review every few years.

• Everyone's cheat sheet becomes an indecipherable mess during the endgame. Take out a clean sheet of paper and recalibrate your targets and requirements for the final few picks.

• Have a plan, but keep it flexible. This game is all about adjustments, and trying to figure out the new, weird season before your rivals do. (Around October the mainstream media will start telling you how it's the strangest season ever. That Mad Lib never fails.)

• Don't pay much attention to player-versus-team history, especially if it's outside the division. Given how quickly personnel changes in the NFL, what happened a couple of years ago is basically irrelevant now.

• Bye weeks have some value, but it's not a lot. Strength of schedule has some early merit, but otherwise it's an exercise in fortune telling. The NFL is a reshuffle league.

• Consider every intelligent viewpoint you come across, but be responsible for your own decisions.

• Static draft lists aren't good enough. You need to consider where the talent clusters and where the talent drops off at each position and tier. The game is all about margin analysis.

• The meaning of the injury report varies from city to city and coach to coach. Some teams tell us the truth, some teams lie to us, and some teams tell us nothing.

• Most of the time you should select a player because he helps you, not because he blocks your opponent.

• Ideally you want your receivers to have opportunity and protection (good teammates to draw attention). But if push comes to shove, take the former over the latter.

• No good commissioner job goes unpunished.

• Let a few hours go by on Sunday before you even consider how your team is scoring. If you try to track every point at 1:15 ET, you'll just drive yourself crazy. I try to be a viewer, only, during the first batch of games; I'll look at scores and such when things slow down during the second wave.

• In an auction of rookie players, the owners will usually spend like crazy in the early rounds. In many experienced auctions, the best time to buy is during the first few nominations.

• If you're one of the favorites in your league, make the rules more dynamic. If you're one of the rookies or casual owners, vote for the simplest rules possible.

• It's nice to have a sense of where the entire room is at, position wise, but it's critical to know your neighborhood. Every early pick should be framed against their roster as well as yours.

• If you're going to target a running back on a presumed losing club, make sure he can catch the ball and play in spread packages. You don't want him routinely eliminated by the game situation.

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