Mike Jinks

Matt Jinks takes over a Bowling Green program coming off a MAC championship. Can he put the Falcons in position to beat Ohio State in September?

(AP)

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Here's our schedule breakdown of Ohio State's season, as we assign a percentage chance for each opponent to beat the Buckeyes. We'll continue multiplying those chances until we reach our final number, the chance we think Ohio State has to go 12-0 during the 2016 regular season.

Bowling Green Falcons

vs. Ohio State: Saturday Sept. 3, at Ohio Stadium at 12:00 p.m. on Big Ten Network.

2015 record: 10-4 (7-1), finished in first place in the Mid-American Conference East Division. Beat Northern Illinois in MAC Championship.

Bowl: Lost to Georgia Southern, 58-27, in the Military Bowl.

Returning starters: 12 (five offense, seven defense).

Phil Steele preseason rank: No. 83 in Steele's Power Poll.

Week before the OSU game: There is no game the week before, which is probably a good thing for Bowling Green, especially considering it just hired Mike Jinks to replace Dino Babers. Jinks comes from being an assistant at Texas Tech, so he'll have the entire fall camp session to install that high-powered, pass-heavy spread to bring into Ohio Stadium.

Chances to beat Ohio State: 1 percent. Could you imagine if one of these MAC teams in Ohio finally landed on Ohio State's schedule at their peak? Like what if the Bowling Green team from last year, the one that had a ton of talent and won the MAC for the second time in three years, came into Ohio Stadium? The chances would have certainly been greater than one percent.

However, Bowling Green lost quarterback Matt Johnson, running back Travis Greene and four wide receivers, one of which was Roger Lewis, who originally committed to Ohio State during his recruitment.

All those key players are gone, and so is Babers. So Jinks has to come in and get a ton of new players adjusted to a new offense and have them playing atop their game by week one.

It's enough that Ohio State is vastly more talented than Bowling Green. But chances to actually beat Ohio State -- beat, not keep it close -- are one percent.

How they could compete with Ohio State: Let's not forget that Ohio State is replacing the vast majority of its contributors from a year ago, and the Buckeyes don't always come out and play well in early season day games.

How could the Falcons come in and compete? Well, let's just start off with the fact that Ohio State has no game tape of Jinks' Bowling Green vision, so the assumption probably is that the Texas Tech offense is what to expect.

What if Jinks comes out with an entirely new offensive game plan for Ohio State that the Buckeyes aren't expecting? It's not like Bowling Green isn't going to follow Jinks' vision of that air-it-out spread.

Though Bowling Green has a lot of replacing to do, it is a team that averaged 40 points and 500 yards per game last season. And though it doesn't have Johnson anymore, senior quarterback James Knapke is a mature signal caller who could be perfect for Jinks' first year.

Bowling Green could come out, score early, watch Ohio State muddle around for a few quarters and actually be in the game midway through the second half.

But that type of game and actually winning are two different things.

Projection: This game would have been a lot more fun had Ohio State been matched up with last year's Falcons, but if Bowling Green lines up with five-wide and starts airing it out all over the field, it could be an entertaining game to watch.

Ohio State has so many young players its counting on, and many of them will be playing in Ohio Stadium for the first time. Mistakes are going to happen.

Expect a sloppy performance from the Buckeyes for the first half, then talent and depth will take over and they'll win the game by 14-20 points.