This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

The immediate risk of a humanitarian disaster in the last major Syrian rebel enclave of Idlib appears to have been averted by a joint Russian-Turkish plan to set up a demilitarised zone as a buffer between the Syrian army and the rebels.

The plan was agreed on Monday by Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, at a bilateral summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.

Syria conflict: why does Idlib matter and what could happen? Read more

The nine- to 12-mile (15-20km) zone running along the borders of the Idlib region will be safe from Syrian and Russian air force attack and will be in place by 15 October, the two leaders agreed.

Heavy weapons including tanks, mortars and artillery will be withdrawn from the zone by 10 October.

The plan is designed to prevent a large-scale Russian-Syrian attack on the whole of the Idlib region, a large province bordering Turkey in which more than 3 million civilians reside.

The arrangement leaves the fate of the estimated 10,000 jihadist fighters in the region unanswered. Putin said the militants represented “a threat both to the city of Aleppo and our military facilities in Syria, namely in Tartus and Hmeymim.”

Jihadist rebels fighting under the banner of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seen as the Syrian franchise of al-Qaida and listed as terrorists by Russia and the UN, will be expected to evacuate the zone.

Turkey, the UN and aid groups have said a generalised assault by Russian and Syrian forces backing Bashar al-Assad against what remains of the uprising against him would lead to the displacement of as many as 800,000 refugees across the border into an already overwhelmed Turkey.

Many of the 3 million in Idlib have already been displaced from other parts of Syria following the collapse of the opposition resistance in cities such as Aleppo.

Erdoğan said on Monday that the Sochi agreement had averted a great humanitarian disaster.

The agreement, to be jointly monitored by Turkish and Russian forces, will be seen as a sign of Erdoğan’s influence over Putin and is a huge advance over a trilateral summit held two weeks ago in Tehran when Erdoğan and Putin clashed in public over the feasibility of a ceasefire.

The precise boundaries of the new zone were not spelled out by the two leaders at the summit, apat from saying it would be along the current contact line between the rebels and the Syrian forces.

It is not clear that the areas of Idlib excluded from the demilitarised zone will be open to Russian assault. The Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, said after the deal was announced that there would be no military operation in Idlib.

Putin said the sides had agreed to “resume transit traffic along the Aleppo-Latakia and Aleppo-Hama highways by the end of 2018, also at the initiative of the Turkish side”.

Many fighters in the Idlib enclave now operating under the banner of the National Liberation Front have been protected by Turkey throughout the seven-year civil war and Erdoğan is determined that they are not slaughtered in the final stages of the campaign. He said Turkish forces would remain in already established Turkish observation posts in Idlib.

Erdoğan had for weeks been responding to Russian pressure by trying to persuade HTS fighters to relent or separate from the Turkish-backed forces stationed mainly further south in the Idlib region, including in towns such as Maarat al-Nu’man. But there are pockets of Turkish-backed forces in Idlib within the main area of HTS control closer to the Turkish border.

Erdoğan said Syrian Kurdish fighters east of the Euphrates river posed the biggest threat for Syria’s future.

Jan Egeland, an adviser to the UN envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said: “Hope at long last for 3 million Syrian civilians in Idlib: Russia and Turkey agree on plan that may avert horrific war among displaced people. The Syrian government and armed opposition groups must respect deal, not provoke bloodshed and allow humanitarian access.

Suspected Israeli missiles were fired at several Syrian locations on Monday, including the coastal city of Latakia, , Homs and Hama, according to Syrian state media.

The strikes seemed primarily to be aimed at Latakia Technical Industries Association. Pictures showed huge explosions, but Sana, the Syrian state news agency, claimed Syrian air defences disabled many of the missiles.

Israel rarely claims responsibility for its assaults into Syria. Many of its recent attacks have been aimed at Iranian bases, but the latest missiles, sent from sea, struck close to Russian military bases.