John Kasich’s blue-collar case gains ground in Michigan

Updated: Sept. 21, 10:11 a.m.

A dead cell phone and a wrong-button move meant two Ohio reporters failed to capture video of John Kasich dancing Saturday.

But a tracker for a political action committee allied with Hillary Clinton caught the dance moves on video.

Enjoy!

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MACKINAC ISLAND, Michigan – A Republican presidential candidate last won That State Up North in 1988.

John Kasich thinks he could change that. Touting his blue-collar upbringing, he made his case Saturday at a major Republican conference on Michigan’s island playground between the Upper and Lower Peninsulas.

He also danced.

Stories of Kasich cutting a rug at a local bar on Friday night – while the Michigan lieutenant governor played keys and sang lead vocals; not kidding – were popping up among the 2,300 GOP activists in town. So Saturday afternoon, at a bar reception with upwards of 150 people, Kasich asked aides to turn on “Shut Up and Dance” by Walk the Moon.

With a backdrop of college volunteers, Kasich bobbed his head to warm up. And then, for about 10 seconds, he danced, shuffling and churning his arms. The failure of two Ohio journalists to capture this on video is one of the greatest crises of the primary season. For some reason, campaign aides declined to remedy this by sharing any visual documentation.

Kasich didn’t poll well in the only recent survey of Michigan Republican primary voters, garnering 2 percent to Ben Carson’s 24 percent and Donald Trump’s 22 percent. And he didn’t win the Michigan Republican Leadership Conference’s straw poll Saturday. That honor went to Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, whose legendary turnout machine included dozens of students from conservative Hillsdale College.

But he did build momentum – enough that he could cut loose for a while – in a state he needs to power his presidential campaign. Michigan’s Republican primary is March 8, a week before Ohio’s, so a win here might set up Kasich for back-to-back victories in what could be a long-fought GOP nominating process.

Kasich finished third in the straw poll, behind Paul and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who is surging after back-to-back standout debate performances.

‘Republicans don’t understand Michigan’

Straw polls infamously gauge a candidate’s ability to turn out ballot-casters more than they predict actual election results. But for Kasich, the solid showing evidences his campaign’s budding organizational strength in Michigan.

The campaign is entering a new phase. After a strong first debate in Cleveland and a climb to contention in early-primary New Hampshire, Kasich has ceded the limelight, at least for now, to Fiorina. He and his team must show their ability to build steady progress nationally and in later-primary states. He continues to earn just 2 or 3 percent in national polls.

So Kasich has filed for the primary ballot in Kansas. His team is considering ramping up the campaign in Iowa. They’re trickling out endorsements in southern states.

“Michigan really matters to us,” Kasich said Saturday, tackling another target. “Wouldn’t that be something – an Ohioan winning Michigan?”

Kasich sought to make the case that he’s the kind of Republican who could defeat a Democrat in November 2016.

“Maybe it’s because (national) Republicans don’t understand Michigan,” Kasich said of the GOP’s nearly 30-year presidential drought.

Michiganders are hard-working people with blue-collar values, the Ohio governor said, talking about his origins in the steel town of McKees Rocks, Pennsylvania. He spoke of the need to “lift” minority communities and give aid to those who need it, but not to those who need to learn to help themselves.

Kasich boasted he’d won 51 percent of union households in his successful 2014 re-election bid. CNN exit polls actually put the figure at 53 percent. (Yes, he no doubt got a boost by facing a scandal-weakened candidate in Democrat Ed FitzGerald.)

Thirty-five blue-shirted volunteers, mostly from Central Michigan University, distributed swag and helped gin up enthusiasm for Kasich throughout the weekend. At a brunch, the campaign passed around “Kasich bacon,” embracing oft-made jokes that Kasich’s wavy logo looks like the breakfast meat.

Kasich’s campaign manager, Michigan native Beth Hansen, made the trip, greeting Republicans she’s known since she was the state party’s political director ahead of the 1992 election. Michigan Senate Majority Leader Arlan Meekhof and Speaker Pro Tempore Tom Leonard both endorsed Kasich Saturday.

A win over Jeb, but can Kasich inspire?

Michigan Republican devotees rewarded Kasich with the third-place straw poll finish. He finished higher than the GOP field’s other establishment candidates, most notably edging out a fifth-place Jeb Bush, who had spoken at the conference Friday night.

Still, Kasich faces hurdles among many of Michigan’s more conservative Republicans, who make up much of the state’s smaller towns and rural areas. These Republicans fought Michigan’s Medicaid expansion under President Barack Obama’s health care law, for instance.

Kasich’s support for Medicaid expansion turned off Jennifer Hensley, of Pinckney. What’s more, she said, Kasich’s focus on his 18 years in Congress and his experience helping to balance budgets failed to inspire her.

“Ted Cruz was inspirational and forward-looking, and John Kasich spent a lot of time talking about his experience and his past,” she said. “I want someone who is going to tell us how he or she is going to get us moving forward.”

Cruz had also attracted John Myers, a Republican activist from the northeast side of metropolitan Detroit. He also appreciated Paul’s comments about the way crime in cities affects African-Americans. And he had initially supported Trump, wanting to see a businessman in the White House.

But, he said, Trump’s controversial comments made his attractiveness fade. Myers said he thinks Kasich is more electable than Cruz and Paul. After watching the Ohio governor speak – and dance – over the weekend, Myers asked Kasich’s staff about helping with the campaign in Michigan.

“He was really, really, really on top of his game,” Myers said. “I think he has a chance to make a change and basically bring our country back to what it needs to be.”

Kathleen Gray of the Detroit Free Press contributed.