The professionals will quickly howl down such a scenario as unworkable and that we are indeed off to the polls again very shortly - but they might underestimate both the great temptation it would be for the independents to continue to exercise great power after being denied it for so long and the desperation of politicians to cling to the higher pay packets that come with being in government, never mind having Kirribilli House as your weekender or family residence.

By convention, the current Prime Minister has first crack at advising the Governor-General that she can form a government, advice that would be open to testing on the floor of the house, so work with me on this and accept that Quentin will tell Julia: "Go for it girl, and I'm not remotely swayed by the idea that Bill Shorten can therefore become a minister of the Crown and be better able to provide for my daughter than he would on a backbencher's pay."

We'd have to assume that Gillard at least has an agreement with Windsor or Katter that they wouldn't block supply and that they'd need severe provocation to support a no-confidence motion. In return would be the already offered promise of a three-year term. Such agreement might only be worked out as the term unfolds, but without that possibility the game is over immediately thanks to the matter of electing a Speaker of the house.

There are various conventions that govern what the Speaker can and can't do. While the Speaker has a casting vote when the chamber is tied, he or she has no deliberative vote and so, by giving up one of its own to be Speaker, the government is reduced to 74 v 75. (And there's no way the opposition would reduce its leverage by offering up a member for the role and the independents have, so far, said they're not interested.)

Yes, that's very precarious indeed. For any piece of legislation opposed by the Coalition, Labor would still need the support of one independent to achieve a tied vote and so a win with the Speaker's casting vote. And government members in marginal seats had better stay away from the front wheels of buses and keep a very good ear cocked for the sound of division bells.