by Aaron Schatz

There were a lot of big games in the NFL last weekend. Carolina and New Orleans battled for the NFC South division lead. Seattle resuscitated its season with a home victory over Philadelphia. Minnesota and Atlanta battled for playoff position. But are you ready for the biggest game of the entire NFL regular season this Sunday?

Are you ready for the DVOA Bowl?

Or, if I want to hype it up even more, are you ready for the third annual DVOA Bowl?

That's right! This weekend, for the third straight year, we'll have a regular-season game pitting the No. 1 team in DVOA against the No. 2 team in DVOA. Two years ago, Arizona spoiled the spirit of the DVOA Bowl by sitting starters at halftime, leading to an easy Seattle victory. Last year we had a much closer game, as the Seattle Seahawks -- who were actually aware they were playing in the DVOA Bowl -- took down the surprisingly strong in DVOA (but near-.500 in record) Philadelphia Eagles.

How often do we play a DVOA Bowl during the regular season? Well, I went back to look and it turns out that it's more common than you might think. It seemed special when it happened the last two years because it didn't happen a single time from 2010 through 2014, and it only happened very early in the season in 2009. However, throughout the '90s and '00s, a DVOA Bowl took place roughly twice every three seasons.

But this year's DVOA Bowl is an extra special DVOA Bowl. We've seen No. 2 play No. 1 before. We've never seen No. 1 play No. 1.

That's essentially how the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles stand in DVOA right now. The Rams are at 32.449%, and the Eagles are at 32.392%. To show you how close that is, five extra yards on Carson Wentz's final 20-yard completion on Sunday night would be enough to make up the difference and put the two teams in a dead heat.

How does the Sunday afternoon Rams-Eagles tilt compare with previous DVOA Bowls? Here's a look at all of the times we had a DVOA Bowl during the regular season, going back to 1989. Note that this is total DVOA instead of weighted DVOA, and it does not include 1986-1988 because we still need to go back and do week-by-week DVOA for those seasons.

DVOA Bowl: No. 1 vs. No. 2 in Regular Season, 1989-2017 Year Week No.1 DVOA W-L No.2 DVOA W-L Home Winner 1989 7 CHI 30.6% 4-2 CLE1 27.0% 3-3 CLE1 Cleveland, 27-7 1991 5 WAS 71.8% 4-0 PHI 35.4% 3-1 WAS Washington, 23-0 1994 7 DAL 47.6% 4-1 PHI 32.8% 4-1 DAL Dallas, 24-13 1996 7 GB 59.5% 5-1 SF 32.4% 4-1 GB Green Bay, 23-20 (OT) 1996 12 GB 41.1% 8-2 DAL 31.6% 6-4 DAL Dallas, 21-6 1996 15 GB 34.8% 10-3 DEN 33.0% 12-1 GB Green Bay, 41-6 1998 16 DEN 37.1% 13-1 MIA 29.3% 9-5 MIA Miami, 31-21 2000 9 TEN 31.2% 6-1 WAS 30.7% 6-2 WAS Tennessee, 27-21 2004 9 PHI 38.3% 7-0 PIT 31.6% 6-1 PIT Pittsburgh, 27-3 2006 4 SD 66.9% 2-0 BAL 56.4% 3-0 BAL Baltimore, 16-13 2007 9 NE 73.6% 8-0 IND 48.7% 7-0 IND New England, 24-20 2008 10 NYG 36.3% 7-1 PHI 35.5% 5-3 PHI New York Giants, 36-31 2008 14 NYG 33.3% 11-1 PHI 31.4% 6-5-1 NYG Philadelphia, 20-14 2009 2 PHI 98.0% 1-0 NO 75.0% 1-0 PHI New Orleans, 48-22 2015 17 ARI 34.0% 13-2 SEA 33.4% 9-6 ARI Seattle, 36-6 2016 11 PHI 30.2% 5-4 SEA 23.6% 6-2-1 SEA Seattle, 25-16 2017 14 LARM 32.4% 9-3 PHI 32.4% 10-2 LARM

There are some interesting stories here. My favorites:

The 1996 Green Bay Packers played not one, not two, but three DVOA Bowls in the same season. Three times, three different opponents who were ranked No. 2 going into that game. The Packers won the two games they played at home but lost to the defending Super Bowl champions in Dallas in Week 12.

The other year that featured multiple DVOA Bowls was 2008. You might be surprised to see that the New York Giants were at No. 1, because they washed out of the playoffs with a quick Divisional round loss. But the defending champion Giants were much, much better in the 2008 regular season than they had been in 2007. What's interesting here is that both of the DVOA Bowls featured the same two teams. Each team won on the road. That second game, with the Giants losing in Philadelphia, kicked off a late-season collapse for Big Blue. The Giants finished 1-3, with the only win coming in overtime. They still got a bye week in the playoffs, but that Divisional round loss? It was their third game against the Eagles that season.

[ad placeholder 3] No year has featured two DVOA Bowls with a different team at No. 1 each time.

The Giants' post-DVOA Bowl decline is nothing compared to the implosion of the 1989 Chicago Bears. The Bears had started the year 4-0. Then they lost two straight, but both games were close: 42-35 to Tampa Bay and then 33-28 to Houston. The DVOA Bowl in Cleveland was Chicago's first big loss of the year. While they did win two of the next three, those were the last wins the Bears had all year. They finished the season 6-10, dropping to 11th in DVOA by the end.

The best-remembered DVOA Bowl is probably from 2007, when New England went to Indianapolis for a battle of unbeatens. I believe that game still has the highest TV ratings of any NFL afternoon regular-season game in history. (Note: Now fixed; prime-time games have had higher ratings.)

Below our DVOA Bowl participants, the DVOA ranks stay mostly the same, but the ratings themselves do not. Pittsburgh may still be No. 4 and New England may still be No. 7, but the Steelers dropped 2.8% when they barely beat Cincinnati while New England improved 2.8% by easily dismissing Buffalo. The difference is even bigger in weighted DVOA, where that Week 1 loss to Kansas City is now long ago for the Patriots. New England has passed the Steelers, No. 4 in weighted DVOA with the Steelers one spot behind. The difference between the teams is enough to make the Patriots our new Super Bowl favorites. With so much less competition in the AFC for that trip to Minneapolis, whichever team is favored to win the AFC is going to have the best Super Bowl odds. For the first time since early September, that's New England again.

Speaking of Minneapolis, why did the Vikings drop a spot to No. 6 this week? They're even lower in weighted DVOA, at No. 7, even though they are currently in the No. 1 seed in the NFC and they've beaten three of the teams above them in our ratings (Saints, Rams, Ravens). What's going on here?

The first issue, of course, is that DVOA cares not for wins and losses, in particular for which team has beaten which other teams. DVOA is figured at the play-by-play level, so it's looking at how a team played throughout the game, not just a 1/0 result.

Minnesota's lower-than-expected rank is even stranger when you see that the Vikings have two reasons to be ranked higher than conventional wisdom. The Vikings have played the hardest schedule of any of this year's top teams, ranked No. 4 so far. And the Vikings have had miserable luck recovering fumbles, particularly on defense where they've caused nine fumbles and recovered only two of them.

No, the real explanation here is that wins come in different sizes and Minnesota's have generally been small. That 24-7 victory over the Rams in Week 11 was really impressive, but it was also just the third Vikings win by two touchdowns or more. The Vikings have a 5-1 record in games decided by eight points or less. The Vikings have outscored opponents by 81 total points, but that ranks only sixth in the NFL this year. As you might expect, the Vikings have been outstanding in the most important game situations. They currently rank seventh in offensive DVOA and fourth in defensive DVOA in "late and close" situations (second half, game within eight points). They've had the best defense in the league when tied or losing by a touchdown or less.

The Vikings are also outstanding on third downs. The ranks are similar to their ranks overall, but because third down DVOA has a larger spread, the ratings are stronger, especially on defense. On offense, the Vikings are 14.5% overall (6) but 22.1% on third down (5). On defense, the Vikings are -8.5% overall (8) but -33.9% on third-and-long (4).

Finally for this week, I turn your attention to the bottom of the rankings, where we have a new team in last place. When we predicted before the season that the Denver Broncos would be worse than expectations, I never, ever thought we would be talking about "worst team in the league." The Broncos now rate as the worst offense in the league, and that amazing defense of theirs has fallen to 10th place. Both Miami and Denver are now lower in DVOA than the winless Cleveland Browns. Perhaps that's why our simulations still have the Browns going 0-16 only 21.1 percent of the time.

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Late addendum: I ran these splits on Wednesday morning and tossed some comments up on Twitter. I thought I would post here as well for people to enjoy and dissect.

Fun with splits, part I: #Patriots defensive DVOA. Weeks 1-5: 26.9% (32nd). Weeks 6-13: -0.5% (16th). — Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) December 6, 2017

Fun with splits, part III: #ChiefsKingdom offensive DVOA. Weeks 1-5: 38.8% (1st). Weeks 6-13: -3.4% (18th). — Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) December 6, 2017

Fun with splits, part V: #Chargers DVOA. Wks 1-5: Offense 0.4% (17th), Defense 9.0% (25th). Wks 6-13: Offense 14.8% (8th), Defense -12.1% (7th). — Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) December 6, 2017

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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 18. This week, we've got TWO sets of content: our weekly content for Madden Mobile and our monthly content for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles.

These players will get special Madden Mobile items branded as "Powerline, powered by Football Outsiders," beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. The Football Outsiders stars for Week 4 are:

MLB Paul Posluszny, JAC (HERO): Led Week 13 defenders with 8 stops (preventing successful offensive play) including 2 sacks plus 6 run tackles for combined 15 yards.

Led Week 13 defenders with 8 stops (preventing successful offensive play) including 2 sacks plus 6 run tackles for combined 15 yards. OT David Bakhtiari, GB: Packers RB gained 96 yards on 11 carries running left, 73% success rate.

Packers RB gained 96 yards on 11 carries running left, 73% success rate. DE Frank Clark, SEA: 2 sacks, run TFL, PD.

2 sacks, run TFL, PD. G James Hurst, BAL: Ravens RB gained 91 yards on 21 carries running up the middle, 62% success rate; Joe Flacco never sacked.

Ravens RB gained 91 yards on 21 carries running up the middle, 62% success rate; Joe Flacco never sacked. G Senio Kelemete, NO: Saints RB gained 152 yards on 25 carries overall; no sacks personally allowed.

And here are the Football Outsiders "Best of November" players for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles, which will go live around 11am Eastern on Friday. Stats below are from Weeks 9-12, and players were chosen before this past weekend's games.

QB Case Keenum, MIN: Second in passing DVOA for November; with 8.9 yards per pass and 71% completion rate.

Second in passing DVOA for November; with 8.9 yards per pass and 71% completion rate. HB Alvin Kamara, NO: No. 2 in rushing DYAR and No. 1 in receiving DYAR among RB in November. 76 rushing yd/G and 73 receiving yd/G with 6 total TD.

No. 2 in rushing DYAR and No. 1 in receiving DYAR among RB in November. 76 rushing yd/G and 73 receiving yd/G with 6 total TD. TE Eric Ebron, DET: Third in receiving DYAR among TE in November; caught 13 of 18 passes for 157 yards, 7 first downs and a TD.

Third in receiving DYAR among TE in November; caught 13 of 18 passes for 157 yards, 7 first downs and a TD. LG Joe Thuney, NE: Patriots RB had 4.69 yards/carry up the middle in November with 55% success rate (second in NFL); Tom Brady only sacked 3 times.

Patriots RB had 4.69 yards/carry up the middle in November with 55% success rate (second in NFL); Tom Brady only sacked 3 times. C Alex Mack, ATL: Falcons RB had 53% success rate up the middle in November (fourth in NFL); Matt Ryan only sacked 4 times.

Falcons RB had 53% success rate up the middle in November (fourth in NFL); Matt Ryan only sacked 4 times. RT Joe Barksdale, SD: Chargers RB had 4.39 yards/carry to the right in November with 57% success rate (fifth in NFL); Philip Rivers only sacked once.

Chargers RB had 4.39 yards/carry to the right in November with 57% success rate (fifth in NFL); Philip Rivers only sacked once. RE Adrian Clayborn, ATL: League-leading 6 sacks in November plus 15 pressures according to Sports Info Solutions charting.

League-leading 6 sacks in November plus 15 pressures according to Sports Info Solutions charting. DT Damon Harrison, NYG: Led NFL with 17 run stops in November, for average gain of 1.7 yards.

Led NFL with 17 run stops in November, for average gain of 1.7 yards. ROLB Lavonte David, TB: Led NFL with 12 defeats in November, including 4 TFL and six tackles to prevent third-down conversion.

Led NFL with 12 defeats in November, including 4 TFL and six tackles to prevent third-down conversion. CB Kendall Fuller, WAS: Only allowed 3.1 yards per pass in coverage for November according to Sports Info Solutions charting.

Only allowed 3.1 yards per pass in coverage for November according to Sports Info Solutions charting. K Greg Zuerlein, LARM: 25 touchbacks on 27 kickoffs. 11-of-12 on field goals with only miss from 63 yards.

25 touchbacks on 27 kickoffs. 11-of-12 on field goals with only miss from 63 yards. P Sam Koch, BAL: 7 of 17 punts downed inside the 10; 22-yard pass to convert fake punt.

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All stats pages should now be updated through Week 13, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium DVOA database.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 13 weeks of 2017, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 LARM 32.4% 1 33.7% 2 9-3 12.0% 8 -11.9% 4 8.5% 2 2 PHI 32.4% 2 34.7% 1 10-2 15.2% 4 -14.0% 3 3.2% 10 3 NO 29.8% 3 31.8% 3 9-3 27.1% 1 -4.8% 11 -2.1% 22 4 PIT 26.5% 4 26.5% 5 10-2 14.9% 5 -10.6% 5 0.9% 15 5 BAL 23.0% 6 24.1% 6 7-5 -9.8% 23 -23.4% 1 9.4% 1 6 MIN 22.4% 5 22.9% 7 10-2 14.5% 6 -8.5% 8 -0.6% 19 7 NE 20.2% 7 27.3% 4 10-2 25.6% 2 11.0% 29 5.6% 5 8 JAC 14.5% 8 11.2% 9 8-4 -2.8% 20 -21.8% 2 -4.5% 27 9 SEA 10.9% 11 13.6% 8 8-4 3.4% 13 -7.0% 9 0.6% 16 10 CAR 10.7% 9 10.1% 10 8-4 -2.3% 19 -8.7% 7 4.3% 8 11 KC 10.1% 10 1.2% 15 6-6 15.4% 3 10.8% 28 5.6% 6 12 DAL 5.3% 17 6.0% 12 6-6 7.0% 11 9.5% 26 7.7% 3 13 GB 4.4% 14 2.0% 14 6-6 4.4% 12 0.3% 18 0.3% 17 14 ATL 4.3% 15 4.3% 13 7-5 14.4% 7 9.1% 24 -1.0% 20 15 DET 3.6% 12 -0.8% 17 6-6 2.4% 14 4.5% 20 5.7% 4 16 LACH 2.0% 16 6.3% 11 6-6 8.9% 10 -3.0% 13 -9.9% 32 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 WAS -0.1% 13 -3.6% 18 5-7 0.3% 17 -4.0% 12 -4.4% 26 18 CIN -2.9% 20 0.6% 16 5-7 -1.9% 18 0.7% 19 -0.3% 18 19 HOU -5.1% 18 -8.3% 22 4-8 -3.5% 21 -1.8% 14 -3.3% 23 20 TEN -5.3% 22 -6.0% 21 8-4 0.9% 16 7.3% 21 1.1% 14 21 OAK -5.4% 19 -4.6% 19 6-6 10.8% 9 17.3% 32 1.2% 13 22 BUF -11.2% 21 -16.9% 24 6-6 -16.2% 27 -0.4% 17 4.6% 7 23 ARI -11.9% 23 -5.9% 20 5-7 -13.7% 25 -8.8% 6 -6.9% 30 24 NYJ -15.4% 25 -12.6% 23 5-7 -5.8% 22 7.9% 22 -1.6% 21 25 TB -15.9% 24 -17.9% 25 4-8 1.3% 15 13.5% 31 -3.7% 24 26 CHI -20.4% 26 -20.5% 27 3-9 -18.3% 28 -1.7% 15 -3.8% 25 27 SF -24.4% 29 -23.0% 28 2-10 -14.8% 26 11.3% 30 1.7% 12 28 NYG -24.9% 28 -25.1% 30 2-10 -10.5% 24 8.3% 23 -6.1% 29 29 IND -26.6% 30 -20.2% 26 3-9 -21.1% 30 9.3% 25 3.8% 9 30 CLE -27.0% 31 -23.4% 29 0-12 -22.3% 31 -0.8% 16 -5.4% 28 31 MIA -27.3% 32 -27.6% 31 5-7 -20.1% 29 9.8% 27 2.5% 11 32 DEN -27.4% 27 -33.8% 32 3-9 -23.2% 32 -5.4% 10 -9.6% 31

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).