Advertisement Updated NH Primary Source: GOP-leaning pollster has Hassan, Ayotte in virtual dead heat Also: Gatsas taps Williams for senior advisory role on gubernatorial campaign Share Shares Copy Link Copy

New Hampshire Primary Source covers breaking and behind-the-scenes news and analysis on all things political in the Granite State. John DiStaso is the most experienced political writer in New Hampshire and has been writing a weekly column since 1982. The column posts at 5 a.m. Thursdays, with updates throughout the week. (Wednesday, Aug. 10, update) HASSAN UP BY 3. A new poll by the Republican-leaning Vox Populi Polling has Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan holding a narrow lead over Republican Sen. KelIy Ayotte, with the candidates running within the margin of error. The poll, conducted among 820 likely general election voters Aug. 7-8, has Hassan at 46 percent and Ayotte at 43 percent, with 11 percent either favoring someone else or undecided. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, Vox Populi said. The poll shows Ayotte close to Hassan despite a 10 percentage point spread at the top of the ticket, with Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump, 41 percent to 31 percent, in the Granite State. Libertarian Gary Johnson receives 11 percent, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 3 percent, while 10 percent are undecided and 3 percent said they will not vote. Vox Populi Polling conducted the poll for the Ending Spending Action Fund, a conservative super PAC, headed in the state by veteran GOP strategist David Carney. The group has about two dozen volunteers going door-to-door on Ayotte’s behalf, Carney said. Vox Populi Polling said the Senate poll “is completely consistent with our previous internal polls and nearly all other public polling conducted on the race to date.” It noted that there have been two recent outliers – last week’s poll by Boston radio station WBUR showing Hassan with a 10 percentage point lead and a late June poll by the American Research Group showing Ayotte with a 9 percentage point lead. But six other polls conducted since April were split – with three showing small leads for Hassan and three showing small leads for Ayotte. A poll by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling in June showed Hassan leading Ayotte by 2 percentage points. The Real Clear Politics polling average currently has the race within 1 percentage point. The pollster wrote in a memo that the race will likely remain close through November, “regardless of the volatility at the top of the ticket.” Each candidate is supported by more than 80 percent of the voters of her party, and independents are virtually split, with Ayotte holding a 2 percentage point advantage. Vox Populi says Ayotte has been able to “establish an identity separate from the top of the ticket,” namely Trump, despite efforts by Democrats to tie her directly to Trump. “Currently, more than half of Sen. Ayotte’s vote share is made up of Democrats and independents, and while she is capturing 83 percent of the Trump vote, Sen. Ayotte is also capturing 62 percent of the Johnson vote and 43 percent of the uncommitted presidential vote. Gov. Hassan on the other hand is capturing only 19 percent of the Johnson vote and only 32 percent of the presidential undecided vote. The poll also found that Ayotte runs strong among those who say terrorism and national security is the most important issue, while Hassan runs leads strongest among those focused on jobs and economy. View the polling memo here. (The full Aug. 4 New Hampshire Primary Source column follows. A new column will appear on Thursday, Aug. 11, at 5 a.m.) AYOTTE VS. TRUMP; AYOTTE VS NRSC. While Gov. Maggie Hassan is Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s chief opponent, this week the Republican incumbent found herself at odds with the presidential nominee of her party and the political organization whose job is to help her get re-elected. Such is the strange election year that is 2016. On Tuesday, Ayotte found herself in the esteemed company of her friend and mentor, Sen. John McCain, as well as U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan, in being prominently criticized by Donald Trump. Ayotte had weighed in to hit Trump for his criticism of Gold Star father Khizr Khan’s attack on him at last week’s Democratic National Convention. While Ayotte used the Trump criticism to her advantage -- saying, “I call it like I see it” and reinforcing her contention that she is independent – she didn’t take the extra step of ending her support for the nominee. Indeed, Ayotte still supports Trump, her campaign told WMUR.com. As a result, she is being accused by Democrats – and privately, by some Republicans – of trying to have it both ways. Had Ayotte withdrawn her support for Trump, there’s no telling how that would have played with the 100,000 Granite Staters who voted for him in the first-in-the-nation presidential primary in February. Hard-core Trump supporters may have turned – and may still turn -- to her GOP Senate primary opponent, former state Sen. Jim Rubens. They may simply stay home in the general election, effectively helping Hassan. By continuing to try to walk the fine line of criticizing Trump while still supporting him, however, Ayotte pleases no one – except, of course, the Democrats, who can continue to tie her to every controversial thing Trump does. A senior GOP strategist told New Hampshire Primary Source he wished Ayotte would not appear to be “so scared of losing,” and dump Trump. Ayotte had to deal with Trump just a day after the National Republican Senatorial Committee did her a “favor” on Monday by releasing a new television ad accusing Hassan of mismanaging the heroin crisis. The NRSC was apparently oblivious to the fact that Ayotte had made it very clear that she does not want to politicize the sensitive issue or see it politicized by her allies. When Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s PAC, One Nation, aired an ad attacking Hassan on the same topic in June, Ayotte called for it to be pulled despite the fact that it was produced for her benefit. One Nation refused. Although the drug crisis is regularly politicized in Washington, Ayotte wanted no part of it, saying, “No one should play politics with the heroin epidemic, and this ad should be taken down.” The Ayotte camp appeared to be truly upset the NRSC did not realize that she did not want ads on this topic. The campaign could not legally communicate with the NRSC’s independent expenditures operation, but Ayotte had been very public about her opposition to the airing of the One Nation ad. Was anyone at the NRSC watching? But Democrats weren’t buying what they viewed as a charade. Hassan’s campaign said Ayotte’s call for the ad to be pulled was hollow, that her strategy was to feign outrage, knowing that the ad would stay on the air. The Hassan camp said that if she were serious about not wanting the ad, she should pledge not to raise funds for, or accept funds from, the NRSC unless the ad is pulled. Outside groups have now spent about $30 million on the Senate race, by the way – about $22 million on behalf of Ayotte and attacking Hassan, and about $9 million on behalf of Hassan and attacking Ayotte. WILLIAMS JOINS GATSAS. After working with and advising two Sununus, veteran Republican communications specialist Ryan Williams has joined Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas’ gubernatorial campaign as a senior adviser. So he’ll be working to defeat Executive Councilor Chris Sununu – an interesting twist. Williams is senior vice president at FP1 Strategies LLC, one of Washington’s most prominent consulting firms, which is handing advertising for the Gatsas campaign. The firm is headed by prominent GOP operatives Danny Diaz, former campaign manager for Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign; political advertising specialist and strategist Jon Downs; and Terry Nelson, who was McCain’s campaign manager in 2008. Williams was a communications staffer for former Sen. John E. Sununu’s 2008 re-election campaign. He was communications director for the New Hampshire Republican Party during former Gov. John H. Sununu’s term as chairman, from 2009 to 2011. Williams was also deputy national press secretary for 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s campaign and in 2014 was the top communications adviser for former Sen. Scott Brown’s run for the New Hampshire Senate seat. “I have tremendous respect for the Sununu family and the significant contributions they have made to the state of New Hampshire,” Williams told New Hampshire Primary Source. But, he added, “Republicans have their best chance in years to take back the governorship and restore fiscal responsibility in the corner office. I believe that Ted Gatsas is our party’s strongest candidate, and he has the skills, the executive experience and the background as a self-made businessman that are needed to win in November.” NEW RADIO AD. Speaking of Gatsas and advertising, Gatsas’ campaign on Thursday will launch its second radio ad of the campaign – this one focusing on education. In the ad, which can be heard here, Gatsas says that as mayor he opposed tax increases, the federal Common Core education program and standardized Smarter Balanced Tests. JEANIE’S VIDEO HITS CHRIS, TED. GOP candidate for governor and state tate Sen. Jeanie Forrester released a tough contrast video on her campaign Facebook page on Wednesday. The 30-second piece hits Sununu and Gatsas for refusing to sign the Americans for Prosperity pledge and for being pro-choice on abortion. View the ad here. The AFP pledge commits candidates who sign it to “work tirelessly” to cut taxes and fees and oppose any tax increase; to cut spending and the size of government; to pass a right-to-work law; to oppose “all forms of Obamacare in New Hampshire, including Medicaid expansion; and to uphold the New Hampshire and U.S. constitutions. Sununu and Gatsas have declined to sign the pledge because they do not want to repeal Medicaid expansion until alternatives are in place. Forrester said it’s clear that she’s the only conservative in the race. QUICK TAKES: SEIU LOCAL 1984 BACKS VAN OSTERN. The board of directors of the State Employees Association – SEIU Local 1984 – endorsed Democratic candidate for governor and Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern this week. The group has about 10,000 members. SIERRA CLUB BACKS HASSAN. The national Sierra Club backed Hassan’s U.S. Senate bid on Wednesday, calling her a strong environmental protection advocate and citing her support for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the Renewable Portfolio Standard. NH AFL-CIO ENDORSES SHEA-PORTER. The state AFL-CIO backed Democratic former U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter’s bid to regain the 1st District House seat she lost in 2014 to Republican Frank Guinta. Shea-Porter is the only Democrat running for the seat. CASTING CALL. Boston Casting Inc. offered to pay Granite Staters $250 for a day’s work in Exeter appearing as extras in what its ad described as a “Maggie Hassan political commercial.” While the ad was apparently about Hassan, her campaign was not shooting the ad. The co-owners at Boston Casting said it was an outside, independent expenditure group. ENDORSING STEENSON. In the race for the open District 23 state Senate seat, former Timberlane Regional School Board Chairwoman Nancy Steenson of Danville, one of four Republican candidates, has picked up a group of grassroots endorsements. Backing her are former NHGOP vice chair Cliff Hurst; Atkinson Police Chief Albert Brackett; Chip Current, vice chairman of the Danville Planning Board and a certified NRA pistol instructor; Ted Curtin Jr. and Dr. Humberto Valdes, co-owners of Hampstead Health and Fitness; Sheilah Hitchcock, owner of Carmen’s, an East Kingston restaurant; Danville Selectwoman Sheila Johannesen; Sandown Selectman Terry Treanor; and business owners Steve Lewis of Atkinson, Jim Mower of Kingston, and Sue Padden of Sandown. BACKING EDELBLUT. Earlier this week Republican candidate for governor and state Rep. Frank Edelblut announced he had been endorsed by 57 Republican state House members. View the list here. CLOSE-UP. Be sure to watch New Hampshire’s top political newsmakers sit down with WMUR political director Josh McElveen on “CloseUP.” Among his guests whis week will be U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta. The program airs Sundays at 10 a.m. NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY SOURCE. To view recent New Hampshire Primary Source columns click here. (John DiStaso can be reached at jdistaso@hearst.com or distasoj@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @jdistaso and on Facebook: Facebook.com/JohnDiStasoWMUR.)