July 8th, 2019 was a historic night. The MLB home run derby saw its youngest field ever competing for a $1 million prize and the title of Home Run Derby Champion. While Pete Alonso may have gone home with the winnings, the true winner could very well be the young stud Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Despite a very slow start to his rookie season, Vlad Jr. received an invite to the annual tournament due to the jaw dropping displays of power that he has put on throughout the minor leagues and pre-game batting practice. Guerrero, the top prospect in all of baseball coming into the season, struggled to find a groove in the first half. After flirting with .400 for most of the minor league season in 2018, Guerrero posted a .249/.328/.413 slash line in 253 plate appearances in the majors. The struggles were not only limited to hitting for average as Guerrero only managed to hit 8 home runs and drive in 25 RBIs in those 253 plate appearances. the power and pure hitting ability that Guerrero had become known for had decided not to show itself yet.

The night of the derby saw Vlad put on the show that everyone was waiting for. In the first round of the night, Vlad easily dispatched Matt Chapman by crushing 29 home runs, the most in a single round in derby history. Guerrero, however, was not done there. In the second round he matched his first round total of 29 home runs, however so did Joc Pederson. Pederson and Guerrero needed two rounds of overtime, one timed and one limited to three swings a piece, to decide the winner of the round. Guerrero managed to club another 11 home runs in the overtime, giving him 40 for the round. Pederson could only muster 10 long balls in overtime, giving Guerrero the win in round two. Vlad would hit another 22 in the finals, however Pete Alonso took the crown with 23 home runs in the final round. Despite the loss, Guerrero set a derby record with 91 total home runs.

After the home run derby was finished, many people brought up the yearly debate of the “Home Run Derby Curse”. While it can be argued all day whether the derby ruins hitters swings or if poor second halves are just natural statistical regression, Vlad Jr. is doing everything he can to throw both arguments out the window. Since the start of the second half of the season, Guerrero has been on an absolute tear. In 78 plate appearances, Vlad has hit .324/.385/.592 with 5 home runs and 22 RBI, while cutting his strikeout rate from 18.6% to 14.1%. Could it be possible that the home run derby has helped Vlad Jr. hone in on where he needs to be? Since the derby, Vlad is making better contact with the ball. He has seen his soft contact rates drop from over 22% to 15%, wile his medium contact rate has jumped from 40.2% to 46.7%. Guerrero is also getting the ball in the air more this half. His ground ball % has dropped from 49.2% to 41.7%. All of these factors have helped Guerrero improve his offensive production to the tune of a 156 wRC+ in the second half(56% above average).

While it may be hard to link Guerrero’s improvement directly to the home run derby, something over the break clicked for him. Despite the relatively small sample size, there is reason to believe that the Vlad we all know and love from his time in the minor leagues has finally made his grand entrance. For Guerrero’s sake, as well as for the sake of baseball fans everywhere, lets hope Jr. is here to stay.

