It's time for Irsay to swallow hard, bite the bullet and give both Grigson and Pagano their walking papers at season's end.

INDIANAPOLIS (WTHR) - At the time, it didn't seem like a mistake to keep Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano. They had interest in New Orleans' Sean Payton, who reportedly was in talks with the team at the same time Jim Irsay spoke to Grigson and Pagano on that weird Monday after the season ended. But it made sense to move forward with the pair: They had great success their first three years together, and last year seemed to be an anomaly inspired by the injuries to Andrew Luck.

Now, it's time to admit a mistake – a very expensive mistake, but not too expensive for a man who routinely drops $3 million for a rock star's guitar.

Whether the Colts make the playoffs (highly unlikely) or miss the playoffs (highly likely), it's time for Irsay to swallow hard, bite the bullet and give both Grigson and Pagano their walking papers at season's end.

There is no excuse for what has transpired here. There is no excuse for failing to make the playoffs when you have Luck on your team and you play in the decidedly ordinary AFC South that has Houston leading the division without J.J. Watt and a below-average Brock Osweiler. There is no excuse for continually missing on draft picks both high and low, for missing on free agents year after year. And there is no excuse for the kind of coaching snafus that have come to define Pagano's tenure in Indianapolis.

If you're asking me, "Who's more responsible for the Colts' decline and fall?", I'll answer that it's Grigson by a 75 percent to 25 percent ratio, maybe 80-20. The talent on this team is sorely lacking. The pipeline of young talent is sorely lacking. The offensive line continues to be a dumpster fire and the defense lacks playmakers, except maybe for Vontae Davis when he's healthy. I cannot be convinced, though, that this team shouldn't be better than it is, shouldn't be better than 6-7 with two tough road games at Minnesota and Oakland before a gimme at home against Jacksonville. And that's on the coaches, on Pagano, on underachieving defensive coordinator Ted Monachino, on offensive coordinator Rod Chudzinski, on offensive line coach Joe Philbin and the others.

The Colts already tried blowing up the coaching staff; that didn't work, not in the least. They regressed, actually.

So what's next?

Here's what's next: Blowing up the whole thing and starting over with a new general manager and head coach, or someone who can handle both jobs.

Now, is it conceivable Irsay could can Grigson and keep Pagano? It's conceivable. I have no insight as to what Irsay is thinking right now. But if you bring in a new GM, or a new GM/coach, there's no way you saddle the new guy with the old guy. Remember when Grigson was brought in for Bill Polian? There was some talk he might retain Jim Caldwell – who is having a terrific year in Detroit, by the way – but it was ultimately decided the Colts would do better to start completely over.

Believe me, I don't write this casually. I like Grigson personally. I like Pagano personally. There are no issues there, at least on my part, although after this column, I can't imagine the relationship will be all warm and fuzzy. But five years into "building the monster," this franchise is mired in quicksand and going nowhere fast. The offensive line was poor in Year 1 and it's poor in Year 5. The defense, which is Pagano's area of expertise, remains among the very worst in the league. Five years into this thing, there's still no identity beyond "put it in Luck's hands and hope he gets crazy-hot."

Irsay said he was tired of "Star Wars numbers" and post-season collapses. Well, at this point, he would take a post-season collapse. He would take any kind of post-season because the Colts are ready to miss the playoffs for the first time in 15 years while operating with a healthy quarterback and will miss the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since 1997 and 1998.

In the end, Irsay has to set aside his ego and answer this question: Does he trust Grigson?

Does he trust a guy who whiffed on Bjoern Werner, Trent Richardson and now, it appears, Phillip Dorsett, all first rounders or first-round equivalents? Does he trust a guy who spent $56 million in guaranteed money during the team's 2015 free-agent splurge, having only Erik Walden to show for that cash? The Colts will have roughly $50-60 million in funds to spend in free agency next year; do you trust Grigson to spend that money wisely?

I don't.

But you don't spend good money after bad. Yes, it would cost Irsay a pretty penny to cut bait with Grigson and Pagano. Both have spanking new contracts; both would get that guaranteed money, and the only way that blow would be softened is if they find employment elsewhere. Let's say one or the other makes $3 million a year. If they find a new job that pays $1 million, the Colts would be on the hook for $2 million. However the math works out, it's going to be expensive.

Then there's the matter of paying a new coach and GM, or a combination coach/GM. The top guys demand top dollar, and it only makes sense to make this change if the Colts can get a high-level football mind who can rebuild this franchise and rebuild it in short order. It CAN be done quickly: Look at the New York Giants, who had an awful defense one year ago, then dove into free agency and emerged with a high-level defense.

It's this simple: Unless the Colts forge a late-season miracle – I'm talking MIRACLE in all caps – there's no way Irsay can sell this brain trust to this market for another season. No. Way. This remains a soft market that will turn away from the Colts without giving it a second thought.

They were joined at the hip when they were retained. They should be joined at the hip on the way out the door.