Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting at his office in Jerusalem March 5, 2017. Abir Sultan | Pool | Reuters

Israeli forces this week launched a major operation to destroy what the country's government says are Hezbollah tunnels crossing into Israeli territory from Lebanon. Part of what's been dubbed Operation Northern Shield, the operation is a culmination of several years of searching for the Lebanese militant group's underground passageways, which Israel's military has been trying to locate since 2014. Israel says Hezbollah dug the tunnels as a means of attacking civilians if another war erupts between the two countries. But despite the discovery adding new clarity to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's previous warnings of undisclosed security threats, the operation is unlikely to lead to escalation, regional experts say. Rather, many suspect Netanyahu has publicized the operation in order to boost his popularity ahead of elections and divert attention from damning corruption allegations brought against him in recent months and weeks.

'Miscalculations' possible

The announcement is significant because while Israel has found numerous tunnels dug by Palestinian militant group Hamas from Gaza, this is the first public revelation of a tunnel — 200 meters long and 25 meters deep — into Israel built by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah. The operations would not be limited to Israeli territory, according to government statements, which described the tunnels as not yet functional but posing an "imminent threat." Hezbollah has not yet made any comment. But while the operation will have political and security implications for both Lebanon and Israel, the situation is unlikely to escalate, experts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group say. "A major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah remains unlikely and is only slightly affected by the Israeli operation along the border," Eurasia said in an analyst report published Wednesday. "Both Israel and Hezbollah share a strong interest in avoiding conflict." The two sides have amassed significant deterrent capability since the Second Lebanese War in 2006, which saw more than a thousand people killed in the span of a month. Israel estimates that the Shia militant group has accumulated around 150,000 missiles and rockets, which would enable it to incur far more damage on Israeli territory than it could have a decade ago. And Israel has expanded its military doctrine to allow immediately deploying "overwhelming" military force in the event of a conflict with Hezbollah, meaning much more destructive and protracted fighting than in previous years.

Israel. Army post on the border with South Lebanon. Mark Hannaford

Hezbollah, designated by the U.S. as a terrorist organization, is considered Lebanon's most powerful political party and militant group and wields heavy influence in the religiously diverse country. Netanyahu, in a statement Monday, called the tunnels a "gross violation" of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war. Lebanese representatives on Wednesday told UN officials that Israel's "consistent infiltration of Lebanese territory and airspace" was an "obvious violation" of that resolution. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri tweeted on Thursday that "developments in the southern Lebanon border are no reason for escalation," adding that his government was committed to UN Resolution 1701. But missteps are entirely possible, said Greg Shapland, an associate fellow at Chatham House and former Middle East analyst for the U.K.'s Foreign Commonwealth Office. "Will the situation escalate? Neither side has an interest in letting it do so but there's always the danger of miscalculation — so yes, it could."

Political motivations?