Han’s sour view does not add up

By Chen Chih-ko 陳止戈





On Tuesday last week, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) gave himself a long vacation to focus on his presidential campaign. In an announcement of his “northern expedition” on Facebook, which was more than 1,000 words long, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate used his typical exaggerations to smear the government, pointing to the nation’s poverty, public suffering and certain people’s evil deeds.

In Han’s eyes, Taiwan is no different from a living hell plunged in complete darkness, wailing in despair. Are things really that bad?

Rather than engage in a shouting match with Han’s supporters, look at the numbers.

Here are some data that are easily understood by everyone:

First, the TAIEX. When President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) took office on May 20, 2016, outgoing president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) “handed over” a TAIEX standing at 8,095.98 points, with a total market value of NT$23.9 trillion (US$781.4 billion at the current exchange rate). On Tuesday last week, the TAIEX closed at 11,111.80 points — up 3,015.82 points, or 37 percent, in three-and-a-half years.

This places Taiwan at the head of the four Asian Tigers — Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea — and doing no worse than the US and the EU, not to mention China.

The TAIEX has remained above 10,000 points for more than two years, with total market value rising from NT$23.9 trillion to NT$32.9 trillion.

If the current market value were evenly distributed among all Taiwanese, each resident would receive about US$46,000.

Although not everyone benefits from the stock market, it increases the government’s tax revenue and the financial sector profits from it. By this measure, Taiwan could hardly be called impoverished.

Second, Taiwan’s GDP per capita. This number is estimated to reach US$25,332 next year, an increase of US$2,792 — 12.3 percent — from US$22,540, the figure at the end of 2016. Is Taiwan really in as much trouble as Han says?

Third, the basic wage. When the Ma administration left office, the minimum monthly salary was NT$20,008 and the minimum hourly wage was NT$120.

In the three years since Tsai took office, the basic wage has been raised four times to NT$23,800 per month and NT$158 per hour. This means that the minimum monthly wage increased by NT$3,791, an increase of 18.9 percent, and the minimum hourly wage went up NT$38, a 31.6 percent increase.

It is clear at a glance who is making a greater effort to reduce the wealth gap.

Fourth, tax deductions. Take the standard income tax deduction, which has an immediate impact on every taxpayer. The standard deduction for a single taxpayer was raised under the Tsai administration from NT$90,000 to NT$120,000, and the deduction for a married couple was raised from NT$180,000 to NT$240,000.

The special deduction of income from salaries or wages and the special deduction for the physically or mentally disabled was also raised, from NT$128,000 to NT$200,000.

Taxes have been reduced for every household, from several thousand to several tens of thousand of New Taiwan dollars per household, but the government’s overall tax revenue continues to increase.

This exemplifies the increase in social wealth. It is unconscionable to say that people at the grassroots level do not benefit from economic growth.

Finally, Taiwanese investors are returning home. The wrestling between China and the US in the “cold war” over trade has caused the business environment in China to deteriorate, which pushes Taiwanese to invest and set up factories in Taiwan.

As of Tuesday last week, approved investments redirected home from Taiwanese businesses operating in China topped NT$610 billion, and they are expected to create more than 50,000 job opportunities.

The general unemployment rate in July dropped to 3.72 percent, the lowest since the financial turmoil caused by the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Anyone who wants to argue that Tsai’s administration does not work as hard as the Ma administration did to boost the economy would do better to stick to the facts.

The golden age that Han repeatedly expresses a yearning for is a distant memory, 30 to 50 years past, and it runs counter to the common understanding of the middle income trap of economic development.

Was there a high-speed rail 30 years ago? Could common people afford to travel abroad every year? Could ordinary households send their children to study at the bilingual school run by Han and his family?

Running for president is Han’s basic right, but he really needs to show what he is made of.

Trying to bring about a revolution from the grassroots by relying solely on slogans such as “getting rich by shipping out goods and bringing in people” (人進來、貨出去、發大財) and “never forgetting that most people are suffering” (莫忘世上苦人多), Han really underestimates the intelligence of grassroots voters.

Chen Chih-ko is an amateur investor.

Translated by Chang Ho-ming