By Zach Hester | @hestzach

Listennnnnnn. I know the last Academy Awards have just happened, but it’s never too early to start predicting what’s going to be the talk of Tinseltown next year.

This year, the Oscars made the bold (and smart) choice to give Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite the trophy for Best Picture. A historic win like this just shows that the Academy’s efforts to diversify its voting base are working. Let’s hope that will work out again next year.

In this week’s post, I want to delve into 15 films that could very well go on to be nominated for Best Picture next year. I’ve categorized them by their likelihood of being nominated, and of course, some of these *might* be a bit of my own personal choices.

Wishful Thinking

Carey Mulligan in Emerald Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman.”

These two could very well be my own personal interests clawing at the post just because I badly want to see female-led films like Promising Young Woman or Blonde nominated.

The first film is the directorial debut of Emerald Fennell, the architect of Killing Eve’s second season and a recent addition to Netflix’s The Crown, and stars Carey Mulligan as the titular “promising young woman” who has her life derailed by a mysterious event. Blonde is the Marilyn Monroe biopic that was foretold by the success of the fictional musical Bombshell in NBC’s Smash. The most interesting part of this film is going to be Ana de Armas, a Cuban actress in the lead role. I have a feeling that Blonde might have more luck as a Best Actress vehicle for her, but only time will tell.

A Huge Maybe

John David Washington and Robert Pattinson in “Tenet.”

These are those films sitting on the outskirts of the Best Picture race. It’s possible they could sneak into a 9th or 10th slot.

The first film is Christopher Nolan’s Tenet, the director’s latest foray into action thriller territory with John David Washington and Robert Pattison starring. Nolan, along with Da 5 Bloods’ director Spike Lee, is hit-or-miss. Both Lee and Nolan could get in, but it’s also possible that both are left out. Lee’s film stars Chadwick Boseman leading a group of African American Vietnam veterans who return to the warfront “in search of the remains of their fallen squad leader and the promise of buried treasure.”

A24’s most likely nominee this year is Minari, which debuted at Sundance, stars Steven Yeun as a father guiding his Korean-American family in a move to a tiny town in Arkansas in search of the American Dream. I love the concept of this film and the glowing reviews already have me dying to watch it.

The last “Huge Maybe” is what appears to be this year’s strongest animated film, Soul. Starring Jamie Foxx and Tina Fey, and with an Inside Out-esque theme, Soul seems like the most likely film to be nominated for Best Picture since Toy Story 3.

Probably Based on History

Timothee Chalamet as Zefferelli in Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch.”

Industry staples like Wes Anderson and Aaron Sorkin are more likely than to find themselves in the Best Picture category this year.

Anderson’s The French Dispatch doubles down on his well-known style that caused heaps of praise (and awards) to be cast on his last live-action foray, The Grand Budapest Hotel. The French Dispatch is an anthology about journalists and part of it is shot in black and white, two things the Academy loves. It also doesn’t hurt that the loaded cast includes stars like Bill Murray, Timothee Chalamet, Tilda Swinton, and many, many others. I expect to see it nominated across many categories.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 would be Sorkin’s first “big” nomination at the Oscars, but his long, successful career in television has prepared him for his second, and likely more successful, feature as a director. Chicago 7 follows a group of defendants (Sacha Baron Cohen, Eddie Redmayne, Jeremy Strong, etc.) charged with conspiracy, inciting a riot, and more for their role in protests at the 1968 Democratic National Convention.

Two relative newcomers to the Oscars could be directors Chloe Zhao and Francis Lee. Both are indie darlings after The Rider and God’s Own Country, respectively, stunned critics in 2017. In 2020’s Nomadland, directed by Zhao, two-time Oscar winner Frances McDormand as a woman traveling middle America in search of work. McDormand’s presence in the film is a sure sign of greatness and Zhao is overdue for a breakout. As is Lee, who is stepping into the Oscars scene with Ammonite, the director’s second feature, this time about 19th-century fossil hunter Mary Anning (Kate Winslet) and the development of a bond with a client’s wealthy wife (Saoirse Ronan). From the moment the first image was released, I was hooked on this film. Winslet and Ronan are both Oscar darlings and could be huge players in Actress and Supporting Actress. Lee is comfortable with the territory of an LGBT Story after the picture he painted in God’s Own Country, so Ammonite is sure to be another hit.

Sure Things?

Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara, both of Carol (2015) fame, in Del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley.”

These are the films that feel like sure things and would be somewhat of an upset if they missed out on a nomination. We might even have a winner in this triad. The first is Guillermo Del Toro’s first feature since 2017 Best Picture winner The Shape of Water, and it’s called Nightmare Alley. This story, based on a novel by William Lindsay Gresham, was first adapted in 1947, but now stars Bradley Cooper and Cate Blanchett as a corrupt con-man and psychiatrist who scam people out of their money.

The second film is the first collaboration between Netflix and Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy. Based on the novel by J.D. Vance, this film follows three generations of an Appalachian family and stars Glenn Close and Amy Adams. Just like Nomadland, this film opens the struggles of Middle America, a trend that the Oscars could reward this year.

Dune. Dune. Dune. This is my personal most anticipated movie of 2020, and I’m glad that it’s being talked about as a serious contender at the Oscars. The film is directed by Denis Villeneuve and stars Timothee Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, and Oscar Isaac as a family tasked with stewardship of the planet Arrakis, a place where the most revered substance in the world thrives. Dune is more likely to find awards in technical categories or in its music by Hans Zimmer, but a Best Picture is almost a sure thing.

Bet Your Bottom Dollar

Ansel Elgort and Rachel Zegler lead the cast of Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story.”

If you’re going to bet the last penny you have on two movies that are destined to be Best Picture nominees, possibly winners, you better bet on Steven Spielberg’s remake of West Side Story and long overdue director David Fincher’s Mank. West Side Story is a musical that most are familiar with and the original movie starring Natalie Wood and Richard Beymer won 10 Academy Awards back in 1961. Only one remake has ever won Best Picture, but 2021 very well could be a year where we see another one…as long as it outperforms Mank. With Netflix releasing, Gary Olman leading, and Fincher directing, this film, which chronicles the life of Herman J. Mankiewicz during the time he wrote Citizen Freaking Kane is sure to be a critical smash.

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