“I think the transition will come slowly and in a very confused and difficult fashion over the next decade, especially in countries like Australia where we haven’t even completed the NBN rollout,” says sports marketing expert Con Stavros, an associate professor at RMIT University. “The TV networks are being squeezed and they can’t overpay for sport and try to make it up elsewhere," he says. “The big bidding wars won’t be there in the future. For most sports, they don’t know what they are going to look like and many of them are probably better off locking in something now if they can.” Rugby league has long gone with a two-partner model of a free-to-air and subscription provider. The existing deal with Foxtel and Nine Entertainment Co – the publisher of the Herald – expires at the end of 2022, but already the media landscape has shifted dramatically since the ink dried on the last deal. Nine had been the home of cricket for three decades but opted out in favour of tennis when it no longer made financial sense. Nothing is forever. Fox has its own challenges. In a statement to the ASX in May, News Corp flagged cuts to spending on "non-marquee sporting content" and increased subscription rates after a financial loss of $417 million in 2018. In a bid to offset consumer churn, it introduced sports streaming service KAYO, effectively cannibalising its own market in the process. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video

“That damages the business model of Foxtel,” says an industry expert currently involved in a sporting rights negotiation. “It’s driving their average revenue per user down. If you were at $78 [with Foxtel per month] and now people are taking up the $25 offer, simple economics dictate revenues are down.” It raises questions over whether Fox can afford to play a similar role next time around. The NRL isn’t waiting to find out, although it’s unlikely meaningful negotiations will commence for at least another 12 months. Rugby League Central is considering all of its options, including bringing broadcast production of its matches in-house. The model has been used overseas and locally, most notably with V8 Supercars and in tennis. However, industry experts such as Global Media and Sports boss Colin Smith – who has advised the NRL, AFL and ARU during previous rights negotiations – believes the move could increase rather than reduce costs. The only local production companies currently equipped for the task are NEP or Gearhouse. However, a well-placed source with knowledge of the upcoming rights negotiations predicts Fox would transform itself into a production house in time to produce the content for the next league, cricket and AFL rights deals. “Whoever the free-to-air rights holder is will probably end up with less sport but put their own commentators in to voice over the pictures delivered to them by Fox Sports,” the source says.

Loading The next TV deal will be the first big-ticket item for incoming Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V’Landys. The Racing NSW boss will next week officially succeed Peter Beattie, whose greatest legacy is perhaps the introduction of the “no fault” stand-down rule to address off-field player misbehaviour. One of the first stars affected, Dragons forward Jack de Belin, unsuccessfully challenged its validity in the Federal Court, where the NRL claimed scandals had already cost the game $10 million in lost sponsorship and that the figure would balloon to “hundreds of millions” of broadcast revenue if left unchecked. “We are looking to the future, which is why we have started,” Beattie says of preparations for the next rights deal. “It’s very early and it’s rapidly changing. It’s something that doesn’t stand still and for us it’s about maintaining value for the game. That’s what the no-fault rule was about, all of the digital stuff we’re doing, the women’s game, the footprint work. All of that adds value to the game. “The good thing for us is that while the media landscape is changing, our value as a sport has been maintained," he says. “Even in free to air - and people are looking at other devices and other stuff - our share of that has increased. “We’ve made no decision to go early or late, we’re just getting ready and looking at all the options.”

Nothing is off the table. In-house production, having multiple free-to-air or disruptor partners, creating new content opportunities, ending simulcast arrangements, selling off properties such as State of Origin separately, playing matches over quarters to increase advertising slots - they are just some of the ideas that are being workshopped behind the scenes. The CBS-owned Ten network has already publicly confirmed it will likely engage in the bidding process, while Seven will need to weigh up whether it can commit to AFL and NRL. Meanwhile, viewing habits continue to change. Smith believes traditional television viewership is down 20 per cent in just five years as content is increasingly consumed on other electronic devices. However, he describes top-end league content as a “must have” for free-to-air broadcasters. “It provides Australia’s blockbuster [ratings result] with State of Origin averaging over 9 million viewers alone, all exclusive on channel Nine,” Smith says. “Fans watching games on TV is more than 10 times greater than attending a game - for the NRL that is even higher, [about] 15-20 times as the NRL is perfect for TV.” There was once a time when moguls bought media rights for bragging rights. However, a source close to current negotiations says companies are no longer prepared to pay "overs" in order to trump their contemporaries. “The days of Packer versus Murdoch versus Stokes are over,” the source says. “These companies are now answerable to boards and shareholders and they won’t cop a $50 million loss to win a pissing contest.”