According to market research firm Skew, the chance of Bitcoin returning to its all-time high by year’s end remains low. The group placed the probability at just seven percent.

Skew is pouring cold water over the bulls in its latest probability chart. The firm says that the possibility of Bitcoin closing above $20,000 is “gradually eroding with the passage of time.”

Bitcoin Planning for the Worst

For now, the chance of that happening according to Skew is around seven percent. However, the analysis group did say that October will prove to be an “interesting month” for Bitcoin, as there are two Bitcoin ETF applications pending review by the SEC set to be decided.

Indeed, it is looking increasingly unlikely that Bitcoin will be able to capture enough buyers to push it beyond its previous all-time high. For that, we may need to wait until the halving event set to take place in May of 2020. Bitcoin has historically had massive bull rallies after the halving event, but also a significant rise preceding it as well. This has been the case for both previous halving events in Bitcoin’s history.

Hoping for the Best

Still, there are a few factors which could throw a wrench into Skew’s probabilistic models. After all, an ETF approval could easily cause Bitcoin to skyrocket in price, which would open the floodgates to institutional investors across the board. Moreover, the effect of Intercontinental Exchange-backed Bakkt still has not been priced in yet fully. Being rolled out around the beginning of Q4 this year, the much-hyped exchange could prove to be a major price catalyst by year’s end.

Still, it would take some extraordinary events to push Bitcoin past $20,000 at this point. Bear in mind, Skew’s probability calculations are based on existing variables. Still, if Bitcoin does end up reaching $20,000 by year’s end, it would be considered a pleasant surprise.

Do you agree with Skew’s assessment that there is about a 7% chance that Bitcoin reaches $20k by Dec 2019? Let us know your thoughts below in the comments.

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