Where the candidates fall in Iowa could be just as important as who wins. | AP Photos Iowa: Who will survive?

No matter who wins, Iowa will reshape the Republican presidential race one week from today — and almost certainly in ways that don’t adhere to any semblance of a traditional political script.

All the candidates dream of finishing at the top of the pack, but where the losers place and whether they drop out or valiantly trudge ahead could be as significant as who comes in first.


The most recent example from political history: the narrowest of margins separated Fred Thompson and John McCain in the 2008 caucuses, but because Thompson barely claimed third he found a rationale to go forward, skip New Hampshire and make a final stand in South Carolina. That mattered — Thompson’s staying in the race resulted in a split conservative vote in South Carolina which snuffed out Mike Huckabee’s chances at the nomination and enabled McCain to score a critical win and boost before Florida.

In other words: The post-Iowa decision of a candidate who is otherwise politically dead can not only be relevant but even determinative.

And in this primary, where the unforeseen has been the norm, most every candidate has a chance to be an influential supporting actor if not the glamorous lead.

Ron Paul

If there’s an odds-on favorite to win Iowa at the moment, it’s the libertarian Texas congressman with a pair of assets unique in the field: His Iowa supporters are passionate and they are organized.

As it happens, Paul is also probably the candidate whose political fortunes are least dependent on the outcome in Iowa. Because he occupies a totally distinct space in the 2012 field, Paul can count on votes — and, just as important, donations — all the way through the California primary in June.

What Iowa could give Paul, however, is a shot at making the race closer in New Hampshire and subsequent caucus states — such as Nevada — where his campaign has already begun to organize. Internal Paul campaign polling already has him in the low 20 percent range in New Hampshire. The bigger Paul’s margin of victory in Iowa, the better the odds that he can rack up real delegates and embarrass Romney or another national front-runner as the race proceeds.

“A strong Iowa finish, combined with our organization and our support up there — I think we’re positioned to do very well in New Hampshire,” said Paul campaign chief Jesse Benton.

A Paul win in Iowa could also be a gift to Romney’s other would-be conservative challengers. To the chagrin of Paul’s supporters, a runner-up such as Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum could try to effectively nullify a victory by the 76-year-old congressman and argue that they can’t be counted out until they lose to a traditional Republican opponent.

Mitt Romney

The state that did so much to dash Romney’s 2008 White House hopes could go a long way to ensuring he’s the GOP nominee next year. If Romney captures the caucuses and then scores a win in New Hampshire, where he enjoys a double-digit lead, he’ll have done something that no other Republican hopeful has done in modern history and almost certainly be on his way to Tampa as the GOP standard-bearer.

If Romney does lose Iowa again, he’d prefer it be to Paul rather than Gingrich or one of his more traditional Republican rivals. Paul’s success in the caucuses and beyond would be an irritant to Romney’s nomination hopes but not an actual threat. Such has been made clear by Romney advisers who openly muse about the well-organized congressman’s strong Iowa prospects.

Boston’s worst-case scenario is that Gingrich or another conservative surges in the final week before the caucuses and enjoys a decisive win. That would mean that, once again, Romney has been rebuked by his party’s most conservative elements and that a non-Paul candidate has coalesced the makings of an anybody-but-Mitt coalition.

Keep an eye on Romney’s schedule this week. Right now, he’s slated to be in the state only through Friday. If Gingrich can’t revive his campaign and no other candidate is catching on, Romney may go for a knock-out blow by adding additional time in the Hawkeye State before Jan. 3.

Newt Gingrich

With a week before the Iowa vote, Gingrich appears a victim of shifting expectations. If, two months ago, he had a chance of coming in third in Iowa, he could have portrayed that as something akin to the stirring beginnings of an historic comeback.

But the former speaker’s campaign came roaring back to life in the first week of December, not the first week in January.

So after rising to the top of Iowa polls a month out, Gingrich is going to be damaged if he doesn’t win or at least come in something he can depict as a tie at the top.

The candidate himself has said in recent days that he’s only hoping to finish in the top four coming out of the caucuses, but if he can’t establish himself as a serious conservative alternative to Romney in Iowa, it will only be harder to do so in New Hampshire.

As Gingrich is learning right now, it’s difficult to get a momentum-driven campaign back aloft after it has fallen to earth.

Rick Perry

Perry has a problem that no amount of money on TV ads can solve: Iowa Republicans just don’t seem inclined to give him the second look he’s been seeking.

The Texas governor has been Santa Claus to the bank accounts of Iowa’s network affiliates, but he hasn’t moved much in the polls as voters seem to have rendered their verdict after watching Perry in debates that he’s not up for the presidency.

He now appears likely to be faced with a decision similar to that of Thompson four years ago — bypass New Hampshire and make a sustained push in South Carolina or begin the next campaign: legacy rehab.

As with Thompson, there is significant anguish among Perry’s advisers, a group riven by factions and increasingly projecting the sort of is-it-over-yet gallows humor native to a campaign resigned to its fate.

The challenge for Perry is that, without finishing at least within striking range of the top in Iowa, he may not even have the resources to make one last go of it down south.

Multiple sources say that Perry has little cash left — enough for the last week in Iowa but perhaps not beyond without some success that could bring in fresh contributions. So how willing is he to incur debt?

A solid third or even fourth in Iowa may mean he keeps up the fight. Anything worse, and it’s back to Austin.

Rick Santorum

As one campaign adviser put it, the most consequential question hanging over Iowa may have less to do with the apparent leaders, Romney and Paul, then with the undercard.

To the point: Who will emerge from the Gingrich-Perry-Michele Bachmann-Rick Santorum mini-caucus?

“The winner of that group can have a rationale for continuing,” said the campaign official.

Santorum is an odd case. Many Iowa veterans think his social conservative credentials and willingness to campaign the Hawkeye way, one Pizza Ranch at a time, make him the best bet to make a surprise showing.

But he lacks the charm of a Huckabee and has been battling with two other candidates making an aggressive play for evangelicals.

Because he’s not yet had the surge of his rivals on the underballot, however, he enjoys modest expectations.

Winding up in the top four, and seeing Bachmann and Perry exit the race, could be enough for Santorum to stick around for New Hampshire and South Carolina and make a hard play for the votes of his fellow religious conservatives.

Talking to reporters after a pheasant hunt in Iowa Monday, Santorum indicated he’d declare victory, and presumably stay in the race, so long as he topped Perry and Bachmann.

“There’s the libertarian primary, which Ron Paul’s going to win, then you’ve got the moderate primary which Gingrich and Romney are scrumming for, and then you’ve got three folks who are running as strong conservatives,” Santorum said. “And I think if we win that primary, we’re in pretty good shape.”

Michele Bachmann

The Iowa straw poll winner now finds herself in much the same political position as Perry and Santorum: hoping that evangelical voters will suddenly coalesce behind her candidacy, help her finish near the top of the pack in Iowa and fight another day.

But with little money — she can barely afford a light TV buy a week before the caucuses — and no New Hampshire organization to speak of, Bachmann is counting more than anyone on the kind of finish that would designate her as the conservative standard-bearer going forward.

Losing to Perry or Santorum as well as the top-tier candidates in the state the Waterloo native has claimed as her own may be embarrassment enough to send her back to the state she actually represents in Congress.

She is “playing for respectability now,” said one veteran Iowa operative.

But even a third-place finish might not be enough for Bachmann to ultimately rebound. Finishing behind Romney and Paul might keep her in the game in New Hampshire, but, given her weakness in the Granite State, what she really needs is a result so convincing that she can power through the 18 days between Iowa and South Carolina with real momentum.

If Bachmann achieves that, she could conceivably end up as the third or fourth candidate in a South Carolina faceoff with Romney, Paul and another candidate, and pull enough votes to affect the outcome.

Jon Huntsman

The former Utah governor isn’t competing in Iowa. So for Huntsman, the ideal is anything that substantially undermines Romney’s standing in New Hampshire.

“If he were looking for silver linings, he would hope for an unusually high percentage, around 8 or 9 in the caucus, or for a blowout by Gingrich or Paul,” said New Hampshire strategist Mike Dennehy, who steered McCain’s campaign in the state. “If Gingrich, Paul and Romney are all bunched at the top coming out of Iowa, that will be the story for the next seven days and there is nothing Huntsman can do to get attention short of running down Elm Street naked.”

Huntsman’s position is perilously dependent on what happens to Romney in Iowa. He has worked to chip away at the former Massachusetts governor’s Granite State support and win over disaffected independents. But all that could be for naught if the Bay Stater wins Iowa and has momentum rolling into New Hampshire, where he’s already the favorite. A strong Paul victory in Iowa could also be problematic, since both Paul and Huntsman are winning significant support from independents and crossover Democrats.

For Huntsman to have a good shot at finishing strong in New Hampshire and staying relevant beyond, he needs a weak Romney finish in Iowa — third or worse — and for a credible conservative such as Gingrich to end up on top. Only that outcome fully preserves Huntsman’s political market space and gives him a chance at outflanking Romney somewhere on the map.