You'd think that by Week 3, with nearly 20% of the season complete, we would know more about the teams by now. But there were some major upsets this past weekend and the rankings reflect that.

One interesting thing about Power Rankings: just because one team beats another team, it doesn't automatically make them the better team. Perceptions aren't shaken after one bad (or good) game. Take the 49ers for example. The Minnesota Vikings took care of them rather handily on Sunday. Did they plummet? Not really, they only dropped on average just under 3 spots from last week. Are the Vikings ranked higher than the 49ers? Again, no. But, Minnesota does top this week's Stock Rising list.

Thankfully for the Chargers, getting blown out at home by a very good Atlanta team didn't cause them to plummet either. In fact they didn't even show up in the top-5 of the Stock Falling list. San Diego dropped an average of about 3.2 (subjective) spots this week. That's not that bad considering how bad a game it really was.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

The Chargers were simply outmatched on Sunday. The Falcons were better in all three phases of the game. Sometimes you just get beat, and that is what happened to the Chargers.

Sports Illustrated

Given the way their schedule unfolds, with just two home games in the next eight weeks, the Chargers could have really used a second home win last Sunday against Atlanta. But they didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as the powerful Falcons, and now trips to Kansas City and New Orleans await the next two weeks. Time for Philip Rivers and the offense to re-assert themselves.

SB Nation

The Chargers were all alone atop the AFC West last week. Now they're playing to maintain their first place lead. Chargers-Chiefs and Raiders-Broncos in Week 4. An AFC West special.

Reddit

The Chargers failed their first real test of the season. Incomplete passes and 4 turnovers puts the loss squarely on the offenses shoulders. Jackie Battle accounted for nearly half of the total rushing yards with only 3 touches. Welcome back Mathews, please go sit on the bench.

I was with you until the last sentence.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking NFC West 12.6000 NFC East 12.7167 NFC North 14.0333 AFC North 15.9833 AFC East 16.8000 NFC South 19.0667 AFC West 19.8333 AFC South 20.9667

Would it be wrong to kind of expect the AFC West to be the bottom division next week?

Stock Rising

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference MIN 27.286 19.000 8.286 ARI 14.643 6.727 7.916 SEA 18.143 11.818 6.325 OAK 30.143 25.727 4.416 CIN 17.857 13.546 4.311

Stock Falling

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference NO 19.786 26.909 -7.123 CAR 18.000 24.455 -6.455 DET 13.500 18.818 -5.318 PHI 6.286 11.273 -4.987 DEN 10.643 15.091 -4.448

Subjective Average

Subjective Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1.091 1.195 Falcons 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2.000 2.500 Ravens 3 3 5 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 3 3.273 2.298 49ers 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 3.818 -2.818 Giants 6 5 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5.546 2.740 Cardinals 5 6 3 13 6 7 6 6 9 7 6 6.727 7.916 Packers 7 7 16 5 7 6 8 7 6 5 7 7.364 -3.650 Patriots 8 12 10 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8.273 -2.630 Bears 11 9 7 10 12 12 11 9 8 9 10 9.818 3.253 Cowboys 12 8 6 9 9 10 12 13 14 10 11 10.364 2.922 Eagles 9 11 12 8 10 17 10 10 10 15 12 11.273 -4.987 Seahawks 10 13 11 18 11 9 9 12 12 16 9 11.818 6.325 Bengals 15 10 9 16 13 14 15 16 13 14 14 13.546 4.311 Steelers 16 15 14 12 16 11 14 15 11 12 15 13.727 -4.370 Chargers 13 16 13 15 17 19 16 11 15 11 13 14.455 -3.241 Broncos 14 17 19 14 15 13 13 14 18 13 16 15.091 -4.448 Jets 17 19 15 20 18 15 17 17 16 18 18 17.273 1.513 Bills 19 14 17 21 19 18 19 18 17 19 20 18.273 3.513 Lions 18 20 22 11 20 23 18 19 20 17 19 18.818 -5.318 Vikings 21 18 18 24 14 16 20 20 19 22 17 19.000 8.286 Redskins 22 22 25 22 22 22 21 22 21 21 21 21.909 -2.980 Buccaneers 20 23 26 23 21 24 22 21 23 20 22 22.273 -1.630 Titans 24 24 21 26 25 21 25 24 26 27 25 24.364 3.279 Chiefs 26 21 23 27 23 27 24 25 25 24 24 24.455 3.402 Panthers 23 27 29 19 27 25 23 23 27 23 23 24.455 -6.455 Raiders 27 26 20 29 26 20 27 27 30 25 26 25.727 4.416 Rams 25 25 24 25 24 26 28 30 28 26 29 26.364 -2.721 Saints 28 28 31 17 29 30 26 29 22 29 27 26.909 -7.123 Dolphins 29 31 30 28 30 31 29 26 29 28 28 29.000 -2.429 Jaguars 30 29 27 32 28 28 30 28 31 30 30 29.364 1.779 Colts 31 30 28 31 31 29 31 31 24 31 31 29.818 -3.889 Browns 32 32 32 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.818 -0.961

Observations:

The Teaxans are your new number-1 team. It's not quite a consensus this time around but it's pretty close.

The Falcons are pretty much a number-2 consensus as well. Though they have an exact 2.000 average, SB Nation (1) and PFT (3) cancel each other out and average out to 2.

After a little bit of optimism invaded Cleveland, the Browns are settling back in to their all-too-comfortable 32-spot

Sometimes you'll get pundits who are slow to join the crowd, in either direction. Sometimes teams are ranked too high, others too low. This week, CBS has given up on the Packers before everyone else and USA Today doesn't have the same faith in the Cardinals as everyone else. Also USA Today and the Seahawks and Lions.

The Chargers dropped back down to around 14th. They're still higher than they were to start the season and even following the Week 1 win. They just lost a little ground they gained when they dominated the Titans.

There aren't really any sharp delineations this week, it's kind of a smooth and consistent transition through the rankings. Somtimes clusters will develop, not so much this week.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0.288 -0.412 49ers 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 0.386 0.386 Falcons 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 0.426 -1.211 Browns 32 32 32 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.575 -0.485 Ravens 3 3 5 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 3 0.750 -0.229 Giants 6 5 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 0.891 -1.089 Redskins 22 22 25 22 22 22 21 22 21 21 21 1.083 -0.708 Dolphins 29 31 30 28 30 31 29 26 29 28 28 1.414 0.066 Patriots 8 12 10 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 1.420 -0.566 Jaguars 30 29 27 32 28 28 30 28 31 30 30 1.432 0.307 Jets 17 19 15 20 18 15 17 17 16 18 18 1.483 -0.172 Bears 11 9 7 10 12 12 11 9 8 9 10 1.527 -0.264 Buccaneers 20 23 26 23 21 24 22 21 23 20 22 1.710 -0.669 Chiefs 26 21 23 27 23 27 24 25 25 24 24 1.725 0.084 Bills 19 14 17 21 19 18 19 18 17 19 20 1.763 0.151 Steelers 16 15 14 12 16 11 14 15 11 12 15 1.814 0.705 Titans 24 24 21 26 25 21 25 24 26 27 25 1.823 -0.090 Rams 25 25 24 25 24 26 28 30 28 26 29 1.967 0.210 Broncos 14 17 19 14 15 13 13 14 18 13 16 2.021 -0.001 Colts 31 30 28 31 31 29 31 31 24 31 31 2.081 -0.106 Bengals 15 10 9 16 13 14 15 16 13 14 14 2.148 0.048 Cowboys 12 8 6 9 9 10 12 13 14 10 11 2.227 0.042 Chargers 13 16 13 15 17 19 16 11 15 11 13 2.388 -0.153 Cardinals 5 6 3 13 6 7 6 6 9 7 6 2.416 -0.849 Eagles 9 11 12 8 10 17 10 10 10 15 12 2.526 0.903 Vikings 21 18 18 24 14 16 20 20 19 22 17 2.697 1.419 Panthers 23 27 29 19 27 25 23 23 27 23 23 2.709 0.259 Seahawks 10 13 11 18 11 9 9 12 12 16 9 2.790 -0.545 Packers 7 7 16 5 7 6 8 7 6 5 7 2.869 1.484 Lions 18 20 22 11 20 23 18 19 20 17 19 2.979 0.783 Raiders 27 26 20 29 26 20 27 27 30 25 26 3.018 1.716 Saints 28 28 31 17 29 30 26 29 22 29 27 3.872 -0.682

Observations:

There is no unanimous consensus this week. But the Texans are still solidly the consensus number-one this week.

I expected the Falcons to be more consistently ranked, but the 49ers actually edged them out.

Like I said: Cleveland is settling in.

Even though the Chargers are down in the bottom-third of consistency, their STDEV actually went down this week. So a consensus is slowly devloping there.

Interesting. Usually when a team moves, their STDDEV tends to go up. There are some exceptions to that rule (see the Chargers) but look at the Broncos. They dropped nearly 4.5 spots this week, but it was practically in unison across the board.

Interestingly, 9 of the 11 least-consistently-ranked teams are NFC teams. It seems like the NFC is a little more difficult to figure out?

Objective Average

Objective Falcons 1 2 4 3 2.500 4.000 Ravens 3 4 1 7 3.750 2.500 Texans 5 3 3 10 5.250 1.750 Patriots 2 7 2 15 6.500 -0.250 Cardinals 24 1 5 1 7.750 3.000 Seahawks 19 5 6 2 8.000 1.250 49ers 10 10 8 6 8.500 -3.500 Giants 7 8 7 13 8.750 4.500 Eagles 13 6 17 5 10.250 -3.750 Packers 4 14 9 14 10.250 -4.000 Jets 12 11 12 11 11.500 4.000 Cowboys 16 9 14 8 11.750 -0.250 Bears 6 18 11 17 13.000 0.500 Bills 9 15 18 12 13.500 9.500 Vikings 17 20 16 4 14.250 10.500 Broncos 8 16 15 18 14.250 -3.750 Chargers 22 13 13 9 14.250 -2.750 Steelers 14 17 10 23 16.000 -5.750 Bengals 26 12 19 16 18.250 3.000 Dolphins 20 19 22 20 20.250 -1.250 Lions 15 25 20 27 21.750 -6.750 Jaguars 30 22 24 19 23.750 7.250 Buccaneers 23 26 23 25 24.250 -1.250 Saints 11 31 25 32 24.750 -3.500 Chiefs 29 21 28 21 24.750 5.250 Redskins 21 27 21 31 25.000 -5.250 Raiders 25 24 29 22 25.000 2.500 Titans 28 23 26 24 25.250 -0.500 Panthers 18 28 31 29 26.500 -5.000 Colts 27 30 27 26 27.500 -2.750 Browns 31 32 30 28 30.250 -3.000 Rams 32 29 32 30 30.750 -6.250

Observations:

Football Outsiders: not convinced about the Cardinals, nor Seahawks. And still holding out hope for the Saints. (Most of this can be explained by the fact that their rankings still use 55% pre-season projections).

The Chargers actually dropped less this week Objectively than they did Subjectively. Even though it looked like a terrible game, it wasn't that bad?

Vikings had an excellent showing against San Francisco, and are rewarded handsomly with a 10.5-spot jump in the Objective Rankings this week.

A three-way tie at 14.25 between the Vikings, Broncos and Chargers. Neat.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Jets 12 11 12 11 0.500 -5.437 Dolphins 20 19 22 20 1.090 -1.826 Falcons 1 2 4 3 1.118 -2.453 Rams 32 29 32 30 1.299 -4.804 Buccaneers 23 26 23 25 1.299 -2.307 Browns 31 32 30 28 1.479 -0.306 Colts 27 30 27 26 1.500 -2.332 49ers 10 10 8 6 1.658 -3.085 Titans 28 23 26 24 1.920 -0.568 Ravens 3 4 1 7 2.165 -1.467 Giants 7 8 7 13 2.488 -0.781 Raiders 25 24 29 22 2.550 0.892 Texans 5 3 3 10 2.861 0.625 Cowboys 16 9 14 8 3.345 -1.372 Bills 9 15 18 12 3.354 -0.182 Chiefs 29 21 28 21 3.767 1.896 Broncos 8 16 15 18 3.767 -0.074 Jaguars 30 22 24 19 4.023 3.316 Packers 4 14 9 14 4.146 -0.177 Redskins 21 27 21 31 4.243 1.130 Lions 15 25 20 27 4.657 1.266 Steelers 14 17 10 23 4.743 1.398 Chargers 22 13 13 9 4.763 2.584 Bears 6 18 11 17 4.848 -0.127 Eagles 13 6 17 5 4.969 2.097 Panthers 18 28 31 29 5.025 -2.541 Bengals 26 12 19 16 5.117 1.772 Patriots 2 7 2 15 5.315 -0.824 Vikings 17 20 16 4 6.098 2.075 Seahawks 19 5 6 2 6.519 -0.494 Saints 11 31 25 32 8.378 1.051 Cardinals 24 1 5 1 9.523 -2.126

Observations:

The three teams with the highest STD DEV this week can all thank Football Outsiders for that.

San Diego's STD DEV went up this week, again thanks to FBO.

I've talked about this before, but usually the best and worst teams tend to have the lowest STD DEV merely by the fact that they can only move so far at each end. When teams in the middle tend to be the most consistently-ranked, it's fun to see. This week the two most (objectively) consistently-ranked teams are the Jets and Dolphins; at 11.500 and 20.250 positions respectively.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Falcons 2.000 2.500 2.250 3.250 Texans 1.091 5.250 3.170 1.473 Ravens 3.273 3.750 3.511 2.400 49ers 3.818 8.500 6.159 -3.159 Giants 5.546 8.750 7.148 3.620 Cardinals 6.727 7.750 7.239 5.457 Patriots 8.273 6.500 7.386 -1.440 Packers 7.364 10.250 8.807 -3.825 Seahawks 11.818 8.000 9.909 3.787 Eagles 11.273 10.250 10.761 -4.368 Cowboys 10.364 11.750 11.057 1.336 Bears 9.818 13.000 11.409 1.877 Chargers 14.455 14.250 14.352 -2.995 Jets 17.273 11.500 14.386 2.757 Broncos 15.091 14.250 14.670 -4.099 Steelers 13.727 16.000 14.864 -5.060 Bills 18.273 13.500 15.886 6.507 Bengals 13.546 18.250 15.898 3.656 Vikings 19.000 14.250 16.625 9.393 Lions 18.818 21.750 20.284 -6.034 Buccaneers 22.273 24.250 23.261 -1.440 Redskins 21.909 25.000 23.455 -4.116 Chiefs 24.455 24.750 24.602 4.327 Dolphins 29.000 20.250 24.625 -1.839 Titans 24.364 25.250 24.807 1.389 Raiders 25.727 25.000 25.364 3.457 Panthers 24.455 26.500 25.477 -5.727 Saints 26.909 24.750 25.830 -5.312 Jaguars 29.364 23.750 26.557 4.514 Rams 26.364 30.750 28.557 -4.486 Colts 29.818 27.500 28.659 -3.320 Browns 31.818 30.250 31.034 -1.980

Observations:

Once you factor in overall average, the Falcons knock-off the Texans as the top team in the league. In fact, the Texans are closer to number-3 Baltimore than they are the number-1 Atlanta.

This is where distinct clusters have developed. Look at the cluster of the teams ranked higher than 12th, then a cluster at 14-16, and another cluster at 20-on-down.

Of the top 12 teams, the NFC claims 9 spots to the AFC's 3. The NFC is turning into the power conference this year.

The Chargers are the next-best team out of the top-12, narrowly edging out the Broncos.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Falcons 2.000 2.500 0.718 -1.650 Browns 31.818 30.250 1.143 -0.814 Ravens 3.273 3.750 1.306 -0.632 Buccaneers 22.273 24.250 1.833 -1.039 Titans 24.364 25.250 1.890 -0.491 Giants 5.546 8.750 2.059 -1.053 Colts 29.818 27.500 2.197 -0.490 49ers 3.818 8.500 2.265 -0.522 Texans 1.091 5.250 2.372 0.063 Chiefs 24.455 24.750 2.446 0.531 Broncos 15.091 14.250 2.630 0.088 Cowboys 10.364 11.750 2.645 -0.390 Rams 26.364 30.750 2.655 -0.632 Redskins 21.909 25.000 2.744 0.561 Jets 17.273 11.500 2.863 -0.577 Raiders 25.727 25.000 2.918 1.147 Steelers 13.727 16.000 3.070 1.178 Patriots 8.273 6.500 3.103 -0.289 Bills 18.273 13.500 3.120 0.872 Bears 9.818 13.000 3.155 0.322 Chargers 14.455 14.250 3.200 0.732 Eagles 11.273 10.250 3.386 1.414 Jaguars 29.364 23.750 3.462 2.414 Packers 7.364 10.250 3.500 0.901 Panthers 24.455 26.500 3.596 -0.821 Lions 18.818 21.750 3.738 1.151 Bengals 13.546 18.250 3.833 1.021 Dolphins 29.000 20.250 4.093 0.458 Vikings 19.000 14.250 4.434 1.989 Seahawks 11.818 8.000 4.460 -1.306 Cardinals 6.727 7.750 5.354 -1.054 Saints 26.909 24.750 5.534 0.202

Observations:

That's better: now the best and worst teams on the list are the most consistently-ranked.

The Chargers are still towards the bottom of this list. Much like us fans, the rest of the nation is a little unsure of this team.

Even though the NFC owned the top 12 teams list, they aren't doing so well when it comes to garnering a consensus. Again, 8 of the 11 lest-consistent teams are in the NFC.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Bengals 13.546 18.250 4.705 -1.312 49ers 3.818 8.500 4.682 -0.682 Rams 26.364 30.750 4.386 -3.529 Texans 1.091 5.250 4.159 0.555 Giants 5.546 8.750 3.205 1.759 Bears 9.818 13.000 3.182 -2.753 Redskins 21.909 25.000 3.091 -2.270 Lions 18.818 21.750 2.932 -1.432 Packers 7.364 10.250 2.886 -0.350 Steelers 13.727 16.000 2.273 -1.380 Panthers 24.455 26.500 2.046 1.454 Buccaneers 22.273 24.250 1.977 0.380 Cowboys 10.364 11.750 1.386 -3.172 Cardinals 6.727 7.750 1.023 -4.916 Titans 24.364 25.250 0.886 -3.779 Falcons 2.000 2.500 0.500 1.500 Ravens 3.273 3.750 0.477 0.202 Chiefs 24.455 24.750 0.296 1.847 Chargers 14.455 14.250 -0.205 0.491 Raiders 25.727 25.000 -0.727 -1.916 Broncos 15.091 14.250 -0.841 0.698 Eagles 11.273 10.250 -1.023 1.237 Browns 31.818 30.250 -1.568 -2.039 Patriots 8.273 6.500 -1.773 2.380 Saints 26.909 24.750 -2.159 3.623 Colts 29.818 27.500 -2.318 1.139 Seahawks 11.818 8.000 -3.818 -5.075 Vikings 19.000 14.250 -4.750 2.214 Bills 18.273 13.500 -4.773 5.987 Jaguars 29.364 23.750 -5.614 5.471 Jets 17.273 11.500 -5.773 2.487 Dolphins 29.000 20.250 -8.750 1.179

Observations:

The gap between the humans and the robots is getting narrower each week. Last week, the biggest swing was 4.964 to -8.893. This week it's only 4.705 to -8.750. Slow progress.

Either the perception is way off on the Bengals, 49ers, Rams and Texans, or they really are playing better than the computers suggest. Usually it's the latter, but sometimes the bottom does drop out of a team and they end up falling to their Objective average.

Ever since they drafted Sam Bradford, there has been hope that the Rams are better than they seem; this year is no exception as the subjective rankers are still holding the Rams up.

Looks like the AFC East is getting no respect: 3 of 4 most under-ranked teams come from the AFC East. The Dolphins are running away with it too. I guess first impressions are more important than I thought.

The Chargers have settled. They actually have the smallest disparity between their Subjective and Objective rankings; they're about where they should be.

Sources