You may have seen yesterday’s $415 winner at Mahoning Valley Race Course - yes, I said $415 winner, as in 206 to 1. A result that already raised eyebrows, also happened to be the first training victory ever for owner/trainer Gwendolyn K Crosser. So, what’s more believable: the fact that 206-1 R B Wild Promise won the race, or the fact that the four year old gelding was completely usable in both contests and the parimutuel arena. After a few hours of digging into the past performances, watching replays of his races and talking to owner/trainer Gwen Crosser, I came up with a few answers.

A horse’s past performances are nothing more than a book - a tale about a horse’s career at the races. The opening chapter in R B Wild Promise’s book is indeed promising. His dad, D’wildcat, a $570,000 earner and five time winner in eighteen starts, would certainly seem to provide a solid foundation for young R B Wild Promise. His mom, Leah’s Promise, a three time winner in thirteen lifetime stars was a suitable dam. So where does all this lead? To a debut win at Delaware Park in a $15,000 maiden claiming race. Not a bad start.

Past Performances courtesy of TimeFormUS

After shipping to Texas, R B wasn’t turning any eyebrows, but was running respectively in $15,000 claimers. What R B was subtly proving however, is his tenacity. You’ll often see horses going to the lead, getting passed and instantly giving up or lingering at the back of the pack the entire race. R B wasn’t doing either. He was running his tough and tenacious race every time he went out, but luck was never in his favor. He would either veer out at the start, or he would get into so much traffic, you’d think he was on the expressway during rush hour. R B returned to Delaware Park, the site of his lone win, only to veer out twice more and finish poorly.

If you thought R B had any issues before his August 2nd race at Mountaineer, they were immediately removed. In an eight horse affair, R B Wild Promise sat the trip, went to the front and dug down deep for his second lifetime victory. Once again, his tenacity kept him in the race, except this time his powerful run landed him in the winner’s circle. If yesterday’s race was run directly after R B’s second win, there’s no way he would have been 206 to 1, so why was he yesterday?

Past Performances courtesy of TimeFormUS

In the race following his second lifetime victory, R B bounced heavily, losing by eleven lengths. What happened next will stay in the memory of Gwen Crosser for a long, long time. She picked up R B from trainer Barbara Price, who she says didn’t get along well with him and Gwen made history with him a few starts later.

“He tries hard every race,” Crosser said. “I told (Luciano Hernandez) to do something different with him. I told him to break out of the gate, take it easy and make a nice run. He did.”

During each race since acquiring R B, Gwendolyn was able to get him to settle down out of the gate and wait his turn. He was making subtle improvements each time and after four starts which looked mediocre at best to the public eye, R B got his turn.

“When I first got him he had some mild issues,” said Crosser. “I got those sorted out, but he is a really nice race horse and a hard trier. Yesterday he got the right setup and proved it. For handicappers, you just have to pay close attention to what is going on. You could see he certainly has talent and was maturing quickly in his last few starts.”

Even with R B Wild Promise being 206 to 1 and losing his last three starts by a combined 35 ¾ lengths, the race set up for him. A horse that has solid breeding, successful siblings, notable wins and sets up towards the rear and tries hard every time is going to get the job done more than the public expects. Most would say a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile, but I’d say if you had read R B Wild Promise’s book, you wouldn’t see him as a blind squirrel.

When I asked Gwen if R B should have been 206 to 1, she said, “Absolutely not. You can see how hard he tries by watching one race. Today was the day we could put it all together.” She was ready to back it up too. Her $5 win-place-show bet got her a cool $1383.50 when R B Wild Promise emerged from the back of the pack, tipped out wide in the stretch and dug in for the upset win.

To get a huge edge on the contest competition, look at the past performances like a book. Reading them from start to finish can significantly improve your ability to predict the next chapter. Gwendolyn Crosser saw the next chapter in R B Wild Promise’s book and made history. While your promising chapters might not result in 206-1 winners, you’ll be extremely surprised to see just how many dark horses aren’t necessarily so dark.

By Josh Frederick

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