O'Malley is out of luck nationally, with a five-poll average of 2.4 percent.

He's out of luck in New Hampshire (2.4) and South Carolina, where there are only four polls (2.3).

It's only in Iowa that he's close. In the five most recent accepted polls, he's at 4.6 percent -- just 0.4 percentage points shy.

That excludes a poll from Fox News that was completed on the same day as the first two that show O'Malley at 4 percent. If the Fox poll replaces one of those, O'Malley rockets up to 4.8 percent.

(This excludes the new Iowa poll from Selzer & Company, which was released Thursday, after the NBC deadline.)

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Now, 4.8 percent is not 5 percent. It's 0.2 percent short. In the 2008 caucuses, 0.2 percent of the total electorate was 27 voters, per U.S. Election Atlas. It's not a big difference.

If O'Malley is excluded from the debate, it's hard to see how he soldiers on -- given that it's hard to see how he's soldiering on even now as polls continue to show he's making little headway. Granted, he's got more overall support than a lot of the Republicans, but that doesn't do him much good in the smaller Democratic field.

The question is: Will NBC round up? CNN rounded up when it included Rand Paul in the last GOP debate. Will NBC figure that 4.6 or 4.8 percent is essentially 5 percent, and let the guy debate? Possibly save the guy's candidacy?