Maharashtra is witnessing an unprecedented manifestation of caste mobilization. It is hard to recollect when, if ever, we saw Marathas in such massive numbers marching silently in city after city.

Does this portend a political storm? After all, Maratha caste is the single largest community in the state, comprising a third of its total population. The trigger was the brutal rape and murder of a teenage Maratha girl in the village Kopardi in Ahmednagar district. But that was just a trigger and nearly everyone agrees that these marches are much more than an expression of outrage against a brutal incident. It is undoubtedly a manifestation of a deep disquiet within the community.

Many people, including Devendra Fadnavis and Sharad Pawar, have claimed that these marches have not been orchestrated by anyone; they are spontaneous. Indeed, there is something remarkable about these marches. Unlike the Jat agitation in Haryana or Patidar agitation in Gujarat, there is no violence, no damage to public property. Hundreds of thousands of people walk with exemplary discipline in total silence. The volunteers clean the street immediately after the protest. The marchers feel exalted being a part of this. It is as if it were a spiritual experience like Gandhiji’s Dandi Yatra.

When did we ever see this kind of public protest in Independent India? How could it be spontaneous?

Of course, the claim that these protests are a spontaneous outburst of an anguished community has added a special lustre to the political action. It is easy to criticize a leader or a political party. They can be accused of having an ulterior motive. But when the masses come out on the streets spontaneously and behave with extraordinary restraint, all potential critics are silenced.

Whom and what would one criticize? Showing even a slight scepticism against the movement would be tantamount to being hostile to a whole community that constitutes a third of the electorate. No wonder every leader of every political party has made sympathetic noises toward the movement though nobody knows its goals.

It would be very puzzling if this mass movement were indeed spontaneous. If not, who might be coordinating it? We don’t know but we could speculate by first asking whose interests would be served by launching such an effective mass movement with no explicitly specified goals.

While we are struck by spectacular silent marches, can we forget the marches of the same community to Modi’s drumbeat during the Lok Sabha and assembly elections? Was not that equally noteworthy? So, is this a dramatic reversal?

History tells us that when the less privileged Marathas deviate from their otherwise set pattern of voting, it creates a political upheaval in Maharashtra. It will be instructive to trace this process to understand what is happening today.

For four decades, Marathas have stood solidly behind Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party. The dominance of this caste is because of their numerical strength, land ownership and a sense of identity tied up with historical glory. Though dominant, this is a highly stratified caste.

At one end of the spectrum, there are modern horticulturists exporting to Europe, and at the other end, there are poor, small dry land farmers and landless labourers. The elite Maratha leadership has tried to keep a firm grip on the community through a network of patron-client relationships, made possible by its control over state resources.

However, eventually, the deep economic divide among the Marathas led to a political fissure. During the assembly elections of 1995, the poorer segment of Marathas deserted the Congress-NCP bringing the BJP-Sena into power for the first time. The majority of Sena candidates belonging to the Maratha community were non-elites.

Economic growth is a disruptive process that demands flexibility in acquiring new skills. For a socially dominant caste trapped in tradition with historically nurtured pride, this adaptation is difficult. Post-1991 growth saw the emergence of contractor lobbies dominated by elite Maratha politicians enriching themselves, while the only growth that the majority of Marathas saw was in their aspirations and this triggered palpable anger among them.

In 2014, they were seduced by Modi’s achche din campaign. His promise of 50% profit through higher support prices for the farm produce also played a big role. This brought in the BJP-led government in Maharashtra. However, after two-and-a-half years, the appeal of achche din seems to be waning. Non-farm sectors are not opening opportunities that Modi had promised. Agricultural development continues to remain thwarted. Not surprisingly, the aspirations of common Marathas are now turning into frustration.

The Kopardi incident was a flashpoint that triggered these massive rallies with no explicit goal except to unite the community. The Maratha vote will determine who rules Maharashtra. If the consolidation through the present events is by design, it must be considered a political masterstroke by Maratha elites.

Milind Murugkar writes on the contemporary economic and political issues.

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