Glaciers in the European Alps could shrink by 75% by the end of the century, according to new research into the expected impact of global warming.

The study, published in the journal Nature: Geoscience, concludes that, globally, mountain glaciers and ice caps are projected to lose 15-27% of their volume by 2100, although the extent of the damage varies widely. The analysis suggests glaciers in the Alps and New Zealand will shrink by more than 70% but shrinkage is predicted to reach about 10% in Greenland and high-mountain Asia.

The researchers argue this will result in "substantial impacts" on regional water availability, as well as a rise in sea levels. Retreating glaciers and ice caps threaten the water supplies of cities such as Kathmandu in Nepal and La Paz in Bolivia, which depend substantially on glacial meltwater for drinking and farming.

Scientists from the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada, who conducted the research, predict that melting glaciers and ice caps will be responsible for increases in sea levels of 8.7-16.1cm by 2100. This broadly confirms the range projected by the UN's climate change body, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC).

"What is surprising here is the contribution to sea level rises of up to 16cm just from the melting of small glaciers and ice caps. This may still be a low estimate as we did not include ice loss from calving – when a piece of ice breaks off into the sea," said Dr Valentina Radic, who co-authored the study with Prof Regine Hock.

Total sea level rise is likely to be considerably higher, however, due to the effects of melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets – which make up more than 99% of the water on Earth bound up in glacier ice – and thermal expansion in the ocean.

Dr Murray Simpson, senior research associate at Oxford University's Centre for the Environment, said: "All studies since 2007 clearly show that, in total, sea levels will rise 1-2 metres by the end of the century."

Radic and Hock arrived at the figures by simulating the response of 2,638 ice caps and 120,229 mountain glaciers worldwide to the changes in climate projected by 10 state-of-the-art climate models. These models were developed for the last IPCC report, including models produced by Nasa and the UK Met Office.

The research found that melting mountain glaciers and ice caps have made a growing contribution to sea level rise over past decades. While mountain glaciers and ice caps include only a minor fraction of all water on Earth bound in glacier ice (less than 1%), their retreat has caused half of sea level rises from melting ice over the past 50 years.

"Small glaciers and ice caps will be an important and increasing contributor to sea level rises this century," said Radic.