Don’t Worry (or Celebrate?) Rick Santorum will Not be the Next President, by Lawrence Spaulding

…even if he wins the Iowa caucuses or comes in second, or third. And Ron Paul won’t be the next president if he wins either. Really. The importance of Iowa is not that it picks the winner, just ask President Pat Robertson or President Mike Huckabee, instead it helps identify the losers (or more gently it “winnows the field.”) Iowa is not about delegates, only a few are at stake, so don’t be distracted by that tally. Instead it can reveal and effect who can keep raising money and who can’t, as well as who has the capacity for campaign organization and who doesn’t. If Michele Bachmann can’t land in the top 3-4 in her neighboring state and where she has been campaigning for the greater part of a year, can she do better in Florida? In South Carolina? If a fire breathing social conservative like Rick Perry can’t end up in the upper tier in Iowa, can he perform well in New Hampshire or Florida? If Newt Gingrich floats like a stone in Iowa, where can he do better? These candidacies may limp on for a few more weeks hoping for an implosion elsewhere in the field.

So, is the nomination Romney’s? If yes, it is not because he wins delegates in Iowa or comes out on top in the polls; but showing well in Iowa makes it more difficult for others to close the gap, narrow as it is. He can keep chugging along, slowly gobbling up more and more endorsements and raising more and more money even if he generates little enthusiasm. He can stub his toe here and there, and still do fine so long as doesn’t actually stumble and fall in a way he has shown no inclination to so far. The question for Republicans is what makes their eventual candidate the strongest against President Obama. A bruising nomination fight can certainly hurt and show a candidates’ vulnerability. On the other hand, a hard fought primary season can strengthen a candidate. Senator Obama may have become President Obama even without the hard fought primary battle with Senate Clinton, but it is hard to doubt that those contests made him a much stronger candidate. Mitt Romney has shown himself to be an aggressive, well-disciplined, well organized candidate, but so far the pre-primary period has not shown if he can take a punch. Iowa won’t reveal that neither will New Hampshire. And if not then, it might be fall before we find out.

– Lawrence Spaulding

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