A Socialist-led coalition is shaping up to be the most likely to rule Spain as rival politicians laid down ground rules on Monday ahead of what are expected to be marathon political negotiations needed to form the country’s next government.



The conservative People’s party (PP) won 123 seats in Sunday’s election and 29% of the vote, leaving it a long way short of a majority in the 350-seat legislature. As the results came in, the party leader, Mariano Rajoy, vowed he would try to stay on as prime minister, despite a set of results that left him with few options to do so. “I will try and form a stable government,” Rajoy told cheering supporters on Sunday. “Spain needs stability, security, confidence and trust.”

But with leftwing parties holding the balance of power in Spain’s parliament, the result is likely to mirror recent political events in Portugal, where the conservatives won the October election but fell to a socialist government backed by leftist parties just days later.

Billed as Spain’s most vibrant and plural election in recent years, the vote chipped away at the country’s decades of two-party dominance and yielded a result that thrust the country into weeks – if not months – of political horse trading.



Owen Jones on the campaign trail with Podemos. Guardian

In the coming days and weeks, King Felipe VI, who took over from his embattled father last year, will reach out to all parties to hear their positions and name the party that will have the chance to try and form a government. If the candidate fails to obtain an absolute majority, followed by a simple majority in a vote of confidence, the king must put forward a new candidate. If no government is formed within two months, new elections must be held.

On Monday morning, as many in Spain waded through the potential scenarios, the Socialist party ruled out any possibility of backing the PP. “The Socialists will vote no to Rajoy. We’re going to vote no to the PP,” said César Luena, one of the party’s senior officials.

The Socialists came second in Sunday’s election, earning 90 seats and 22% of the vote. Despite a result that ranked as their worst ever, the party is now central to the question of what comes next. “Spaniards voted for change and the left and we’re going to translate that to the confidence vote,” said Luena.

Anti-austerity party Podemos, which won 69 seats and 21% of the vote, said it would also block any attempt by Rajoy to form a government. “On no account will Podemos allow the PP to govern,” the leader, Pablo Iglesias, told reporters on Monday, ruling out the possibility of even abstaining during the vote of confidence. “The PP cannot form part of the future government of this country,” said Iglesias.

By contrast, Ciudadanos’s leader, Albert Rivera, said his party would abstain from the confidence vote to allow the PP to form a minority government and urged the Socialists to do the same. “The Socialists need to show that they’re thinking more about Spain than what’s left of their party,” Rivera told Spanish media on Monday. “Spain cannot allow itself to be Greece. Spain cannot allow itself to be a chaotic country.”

Mariano Rajoy celebrates People’s party election result in Spain Guardian

In the lead-up to the election, analysts predicted that Ciudadanos would be a key player in propping up a PP minority. The centre-right party won only 40 seats on Sunday, however, not enough to shield the PP from the no votes promised by the Socialists and Podemos. Rivera has consistently said he will not enter any kind of pact with the PP.

As a result a Socialist government backed by Podemos seems increasingly likely.

While both parties will find common ground in the appeal for change, the pairing comes with its perils; whereas the Socialists have pushed for constitutional reform to address the issue of Catalan independence, Iglesias said on Monday that a referendum on independence would be crucial for any party to secure Podemos’s support. Both parties will also have to weigh the risk of alienating their voter base, made up of rural, older voters in the case of the Socialists, and for Podemos, voters intent on doing away with the establishment parties.

As Podemos ran under coalitions in several regions, any agreement with the Socialists could potentially be complicated by the stamp of approval needed from several other leftist movements, such as Barcelona en Comú or Compromís in Valencia.

An alliance of the Socialists and Podemos would likely still need the support of other parties to advance their agenda, whether it be Ciudadanos or regional parties, such as the Republican Left of Catalonia and Artur Mas’s Democratic Convergence party. The necessity of more votes could amplify the importance of the smattering of separatist parties in the parliament and see the Socialists wrestled into concessions on Catalan independence as the price of gaining support. The option of Ciudadanos as a partner is complicated by Rivera’s strong stance in backing Rajoy as leader of the next government.

Spanish newspapers announce the election results on their front pages. Photograph: Alvaro Barrientos/AP

If the Socialists are able to gather enough support to form a government they could find themselves at loggerheads with the country’s senate – which emerged from Sunday’s election with a PP majority – as the party tries to push forward initiatives such as constitutional reform.



On Monday, the PP urged its rivals to take a step back and consider the bigger picture. “I am asking everyone to show responsibility, because the stability of Spain is at stake, progress in the economic recovery is at stake,” PP official Fernando Martínez-Maillo told broadcaster Cadena Ser.

The messy affair has shone new light on the role of King Felipe. While his father Juan Carlos’s abdication sent tens of thousands of Spaniards into the streets to demand a referendum on the future of the monarchy, polls suggest Felipe’s approval levels have since risen. His growth in popularity has been explained by his careful prudence, with speeches that steer clear of the push for democratic and institutional regeneration in Spain.

But Sunday’s election result will likely force the king to wade into the crux of the issue, with the monarch central to what comes next. With Felipe set to deliver his televised Christmas eve speech on Thursday, many will be watching carefully for clues on what the future of the country’s government could look like.



