By Trend





Such strategic initiatives as the Southern Gas Corridor, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, have the potential to deepen the participation of the South Caucasus countries in global supply chains, reads an article posted on the website of The Jamestown Foundation.

In Armenia, there is a growing realization that the protracted conflict with Azerbaijan and its quasi-colonial dependence on Russia are the only factors keeping the country from seizing these opportunities, according to the article.

Europe’s longest running conflict was reactivated in Karabakh on Feb. 25, with ceasefire violations along the line of contact. The skirmishes lasted a few days and left several soldiers dead. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense stated its forces had “suffered losses” while repelling the large-scale Armenian assault. By a suspicious coincidence, the fighting erupted on the eve of the 25th anniversary of the tragic and deadly events in Khojaly, reads the article.

Azerbaijani diplomats believe the recent Armenian provocation was aimed at disrupting the negotiation process over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s peaceful settlement, according to the article.

“In recent years, Baku has perceived what appears to be Armenian preparations for a new assault. Thus, of particular note was news of the supply of MiG-29 fighters and other sophisticated aircraft from Russia to Armenia in February 2016. The Kremlin also extended to the Armenian authorities a $200 million loan for arms purchases. And in the autumn of last year, media reported the transfer of Iskander ballistic missiles to Armenia,” the article said.

A significant development in recent months has been the formation of the “Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Platform,” the first-ever attempt at independent people’s diplomacy, whereby a number of Armenian public figures openly voiced their support for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Some of them even visited Baku while intergovernmental contacts were at perhaps a historic low, according to the article.

A few days prior to the February violence around Karabakh, Baku hosted the Third Ministerial Meeting of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) Advisory Council. It was attended not only by high-ranking officials of the countries involved in the SGC, but also senior representatives from the European Union and United Kingdom, read the article.

It also states that oil production in Azerbaijan is already gradually declining.

“Thus, if Baku wishes to make the most of its limited oil wealth, it has to commit to a wider engagement in Westward transportation networks, of which the SGC is a key part. At the same time, the European Union’s interest in diversifying its energy sources means that Europe has a real stake in the latest energy contest for Caspian energy resources.”

The Southern Gas Corridor project encroaches on Russian interests as a near-monopoly supplier to Southeastern Europe, said the article.

“Thus, Moscow has and will continue to try to prevent the completion of the SGC using both “carrots” (by proposing allegedly more efficient alternative projects, such as “South Stream” and later “Turkish Stream”) and “sticks” (efforts to sabotage projects viewed in Moscow as hostile).”

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992 Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.

The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations. Armenia has not yet implemented four UN Security Council resolutions on withdrawal of its armed forces from the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts.