With the Government behind in the Essential poll for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, a lot is riding on next week's budget. Trouble is, what voters want and what a Coalition government is likely to deliver are two different things. Peter Lewis writes.

Federal budgets usually define a government's agenda, but Scott Morrison's first effort could well determine his government's fate.

Thanks to his prime minister's telegraphing of his political tactics, next week's budget looms not so much as an election year budget, but as the starting whistle for an extended election campaign.

With the Government now behind in the Essential poll 52-48 (two-party preferred) for the first time since the removal of Tony Abbott, the budget provides the government's best chance of framing the upcoming election.

While much energy has been spent taking things off the table - changes to negative gearing, increases in GST, changing the funding arrangements for health - there has been precious little on what a second term Turnbull Government will actually do.

Tuesday shapes as the reveal:

Will the government take meaningful steps on corporate tax minimisation and the tax loopholes and concessions that support the very rich?

Will the government take meaningful steps on corporate tax minimisation and the tax loopholes and concessions that support the very rich? Will it make good on its commitments on reining in the budget deficit?

Will it make good on its commitments on reining in the budget deficit? Will it attempt to bribe the electorate with personal tax cuts or invest in health, education and infrastructure?

The choices articulated in the budget will provide a sense of the Turnbull pitch for re-election - not the slogans so much as the actual policy.

While support is lagging there is still widespread belief the Coalition will win the election, a prospect that, despite his falling fortunes, is still more likely under Turnbull than under Abbott.

Voters are also telling us that they are looking for positive ideas - two-thirds saying they will be motivated to support a party - rather than guided to vote against a party for negative reasons.

If there is one thing operating in Morrison's favour it is that expectations for this budget are extremely low.

In general, do you think the next federal budget, to be announced on Tuesday, May 3, will be good or bad for the following?

Total good Total bad Neither good

nor bad Don't know You personally 10% 30% 42% 18% Average working people 13% 37% 31% 19% Australian business 35% 14% 31% 19% The economy over all 21% 24% 37% 19% People who are well off 46% 10% 27% 18% People on lower incomes 12% 46% 23% 18% Australian families 12% 36% 34% 18% Older Australians 10% 44% 28% 19% Younger Australians 11% 35% 34% 20%

People are expecting a budget for the well-off and the big end of town.

In contrast, just 10 per cent of voters think the budget will be good for them personally, or for average working people, or for those on lower incomes - or for the young - or, for that matter, the old.

They don't think it will be good for the economy overall either, suggesting that the 2014 default of pain for no gain has taken root.

These expectations are light years away from the Howard-Costello years where people expected - and got - fistfuls of direct payments and tax breaks as the government splashed the proceeds of the resources boom.

These expectations are no longer there - and while the temptation might be to reprise the memories with some cheap money, there is simply not so much to splash around in 2016.

And these findings question whether voters would embrace a tax cut anyway. When looking at the various measures floated by the major parties, increased funding in health and education now trump personal tax cuts in desirability.

Meanwhile, Labor's plans to rein in concessions to the well-off on super and negative gearing wins favour, while the Coalition's mooted corporate tax cut gets a resounding thumbs down.

Would you support or oppose the following measures being included in the Federal Budget?

Total support Total oppose Don't know Tighten tax exemptions for capital gains tax 52% 19% 29% Limit negative gearing 48% 24% 27% Reduce superannuation tax concessions for high earners 60% 22% 18% Increase tax on cigarettes 67% 21% 13% Cut corporate tax 22% 57% 21% Cut personal income tax 63% 19% 17% Increase funding to health 83% 7% 10% Increase funding to education 80% 10% 11%

Voters say they want a budget that sees a stronger role for government - in delivering services and, critically, in ensuring that everyone pays their fair share of tax.

The problem for the Government is that sounds very like a Labor budget.

Peter Lewis is a director of Essential Media Communications (EMC), a public affairs and research company specialising in campaigning for progressive social and political organisations. He tweets at @PeterLewisEMC.