HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS! CAMPAIGN 41 DRAWING TO A HEART STOPPING CONCLUSION – May 1, 2011

[Ottawa – May 1, 2011] – In what has been the most exciting federal election in many years, Campaign 41 is drawing to an exciting and as yet unclear conclusion. The Conservatives are at 34.6 points, while the NDP is three points back at 31.4 and the Liberals at 20.4. The Green Party is at 6.3 and the Bloc have dropped further to a modern low of 5.4 points nationally and a mere 22.8 points in Quebec. Of those who are “certain to vote”, things are tighter still with the Conservative lead reduced to a scant 2.4% (34.8 vs. 32.4, which is statistically insignificant). The Green Part is reduced to 5.6 points and all other parties remain unaffected.

Using these numbers, and we will reserve the final forecast until later this evening, we would see a Conservative minority where the NDP were within 20 seats and the NDP and the Liberals combined would have a narrow majority between them. This means that if there was common will between the NDP and the Liberals, they would have both the legal (and according to our recent polling on the topic) the moral authority to swiftly dispatch Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party.

There are, however, some final movements which could alter the final configuration of the next parliament. At the top of the list are younger and women voters. Although these voters have moved dramatically to the NDP, they are still somewhat less committed to their choices. There is, however, little evidence that they are actually likely to move as their second choices (Liberals and Greens are fading). Ontario remains crucial and there may be evidence of a late strengthening of Conservative support (possibly due to the leak of the massage incident).

It is also the case that there is massive vote splitting which favours the Conservative Party. It is notable that the Conservatives are ticketed to do much better than they did in 2006 but with a significantly lower share of the popular vote.

Quebec is abandoning the Bloc Quebecois even further and the NDP could virtually sweep that province in a breathtaking development. Collectively, Quebeckers are most responsible for what will be a dramatically different Parliament. A key remaining question is whether the final vote will all show up. The Conservatives are certain to do so and the NDP voters say they are equally resolved. However, the resolve of the Conservative supporters is proven while the NDP vote a little less so. Offsetting that potential advantage, however, is that most of the remaining softer vote (i.e., women, younger voters, dispirited Liberal and Bloc supporters, and quite significantly the one million odd Green voters) is much more likely to turn NDP than to any other choice. The NDP ceiling is now 55 points, fully 11 points above the Conservative Party.

British Columbia shows a strong Conservative base but also a remarkable rise in NDP support and the party now leads insignificantly there. There have been no real changes in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but the NDP may well be on the rise in Manitoba. Ontario is showing the Conservative Party widening its lead slightly but mostly due to a saw off in the now tied NDP-Liberal race. Quebec is painting itself orange in a remarkable display of unanimity. The Atlantic provinces remain locked in a tight three-way struggle but the NDP are showing a late spurt there which has placed them in the lead.

We are going to take the unprecedented step of interviewing on the final day of the campaign. We are also going to apply a sophisticated multivariate commitment index to try and focus as accurately as possible on those who have or will actually vote. Coupling the latest data and these refinements to focusing on those most likely to vote, we will offer our final forecast tonight around 10 pm.

Right now, it appears as if Canadians are going to elect a conservative minority with the NDP close behind. At this stage, our best guess is that the combined opposition forces, without the Bloc Quebecois, would have a majority of seats in this new parliament which could ring a death knell for Stephen Harper’s Conservative government.

Click here for the full report: full_report_may_1_2011

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