Well a weekend of Bundesliga action without a Gladbach match, combined with recently finished reading James Tippett’s The Expected Goal Philosophy, provided me the perfect opportunity to assess how Gladbach have been faring this season in Expected Points (xPTS) and Expected Goals (xG) models. Also a chance to study the shot locations and stats of Gladbach’s five key attackers, Marcus Thuram, Alassane Plea, Lars Stindl, Breel Embolo and Patrick Herrmann. The xPTS for Gladbach have been fairly reflective of their actual league standing. As for the shooting locations of their primary attackers, a bit more interesting but we’ll dive into that in just a moment.

Team xPTS & xG

Gladbach currently sit in 4th place with 39 points, and one game in hand. According to xPTS model, not only are Gladbach rightfully in fourth place, the Bundesliga top four are in the correct order if the table was organized by xPTS. Gladbach was projected to earn 35.28 xPTS. They’ve actually earned 5 more points than their xPTS suggests. Gladbach are just slightly ahead of Wolfsburg (34.84), Bayer 04 (34.54), and Frankfurt (34.37) in the xPTS table.

Gladbach’s attack amounted a total of 38 goals, not bad for a team that suggests 38.1 xG, right on par. Defensively, however, Gladbach are fortunate to be tied with Bayern Munich for the best defensive record in the league. Marco Rose’s side have conceded 23 goals, the best record in the league along with Bayern, however, the expected goals model suggests they should have conceded 28.1 goals, a solid 5.1 difference. It is safe to say Gladbach have been lucky to not concede a few extra goals, I’d link it to luck, or otherwise known as Yann Sommer. This higher xGA might have been influenced by Gladbach’s early season performance when the squad was adapting to Rose’s high intensity attack minded tactic. In their first 15 matches, Gladbach were only able to hold their opponent scoring chances below 1.0 xG once. That occurred in the opening match day with their scoreless draw against Schalke. However, as Gladbach have found their rhythm, 3 out of the last 5 matches they’ve held their opponents to below 1.0 xG (admittedly they were against Hertha, Paderborn and Mainz). Overall, Gladbach’s results have reflected fairly on their performances and recent results suggest Rose is finding a better balance between attacking threat and defensive stability.

Quality of Shots and Shot Production

Although Gladbach are scoring an apprioriate amount of goals according to the number of high quality shots they’re creating, according to expected Goals model, lets take a closer look into how the five primary attackers are doing and where they are producing their shots.

First let’s assess some key stats for each of the five players including how often their shot hits the target, how many goals they score per shot on target, and their expect Goal contribution per 90 minutes among others.

Name 90s npG SoT % SoT/90 xG/90 npxG npxG/St Breel Embolo 11.3 6 48.0 1.06 0.40 3.7 0.15 Patrick Herrmann 10.4 5 37.0 0.96 0.52 5.4 0.20 Alassane Plea 15.6 8 46.0 1.47 0.49 7.6 0.15 Lars Stindl 4.5 0 20.0 0.22 0.33 0.8 0.15 Marcus Thuram 16.3 6 60.5 1.41 0.39 6.4 0.17 npG=non-penalty Goals; SoT%=Percent of Shots on Target; SoT/90=Shots on Target per 90 minutes; npxG=non-penalty expected Goals; npxG/St=non-penalty expected Goals per Shot

The above table reveals a few different things about Gladbach’s attack. First, the average quality of each shot taken by each attacker is roughly the same. Herrmann takes the slight edge with 0.20 npxG/Shot but that is likely because he takes fewer shots than the others aside from Stindl. Although it should be noted that 0.20 npxG/90 is one of the best in the league and all five of Gladbach’s attackers sit in the top 25 in the Bundesliga in this metric. Its safe to say there is an emphasis on smart shot selection under Rose and Rene Maric. On the opposite side of this is Plea has the most shots on target per 90 minutes, therefore amounts the most npxG at 7.6. For Gladbach, since all their attackers are, on average, able to produce the same high quality shots (expected Goal) per shot, the more scores they are able to create themselves, the higher expected Goals they will have.

Second, none of the Gladbach strikers are under-performing. In fact, all of the strikers have scored the amount of goals expected of them aside from Breel Embolo, who is overperforming, he has 6 goals with just 3.7 npxG. Third , Thuram is able to find the target more than his teammates. His Shot on Target ratio is the best with 60.5% and getting 1.41 shots on target per 90 minutes. Plea may have a higher shots on target per 90, but Plea requires more shots in general to do so, and we’ll see why in his shot map below. Back to Thuram, despite finding the target, the quality of his shots are average compared to the team.

Lastly, poor Lars Stindl. After coming back from injury he has not been able to really find his rythm in Rose’s side, just yet. He has shown some promise but more so in a midfield role. His offensive stats support that his role in the team might be better suited in the midfield winning balls and providing killer passes forward.

Next let’s dive into the shot locations of each player which might provide context as to their expect Goal metric.

Marcus Thuram

Green=Goal; Yellow=Hit Post; Blue=Saved; Purple=Blocked; Red=Missed Target

Thuram shot map reflects his able to find and create space for himself inside the box. This results in shooting locations that make it easier to hit the target. However, outside of his goals, most of his shots are outside the six-yard box at angles coming from a mix of shots at the end of dribbles and headers from crosses into the box. Both of these result in low xG shots since there is typically a defender, or more, nearby. But, if Thuram gets a chance within the six-yard box, which he has proven he can find the space in there, he is almost certain to bury those chances.

Patrick Herrmann

Green=Goal; Yellow=Hit Post; Blue=Saved; Purple=Blocked; Red=Missed Target

Herrmann’s map heavily reflects his position, playing as a right sided winger, rarely in central areas. However, he still does an excellent job of finding space and shooting within the box, uncharacteristic of a typical winger’s shooting map. Despite this ability, he is still taking shots that produce xG. Moving forward, for Herrmann, he has proven he can get into dangerous areas with the ball, but being quicker to release the ball before defenders can position themselves for blocks or force Herrmann to shoot wide will help Herrmann build on an already impressive season and convert more shots within the box into goals.

Breel Embolo

Green=Goal; Yellow=Hit Post; Blue=Saved; Purple=Blocked; Red=Missed Target

The most impressive shot map is Embolo’s. Not only can he find the space to take shots well within the box but also in central areas, arguably the best location on the field to take high quality shots. Although Embolo’s finishing is often questioned from his day at Schalke to a few missed opportunities for Gladbach, he is still over performing his expected goals this season and is demonstrate the ability to get in really dangerous areas. The location of his shots are not the problem, but he still maintains a low shot on target %, but eventually if he continues to take more shots in similar positions, the goals will come for him.

Green=Goal; Yellow=Hit Post; Blue=Saved; Purple=Blocked; Red=Missed Target

Plea’s map is also a very interesting one. Plea takes the broadest amount of shots compared to his teammates with plenty of shots within the six-yard box, 18-yard box and outside of the box. He clearly can find the space in close to goal, which he is more than capable of finishing, yet Plea still likes to be a shooting threat from anywhere within the field. This likely reflects his style of play where he can act as a False-9 and drop in deep, where when faced against defenders he shoots from distance, and he can make smart runs forward, find the space to get the ball on target from close range.

Conclusion

According to the expected goal model (understat.com I used), Gladbach’s results are fair in relation to their performances this season. They may have been lucky to concede a few less than they should’ve but in comparison to the rest of the Bundesliga, they rightfully sit in 4th place. Maybe the likes of Wolfsburg, Frankfurt, and Bayer should be a tad closer. Otherwise Gladbach’s attackers are scoring what they’re expecting and Embolo is even over performing, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out for the five attackers.