It would be easy, but futile, to call for an immediate about-face on the Morrison government's climate change policy position. It may be tempting to demand a more aggressive target to reduce emissions by 2030, and a credible policy to meet that tougher target. Yet, the harsh reality in early 2020 is that a complex set of facts, pressures and constraints will frame and constrain the Prime Minister’s options.

Illustration: Andrew Dyson Credit:

First are the facts. Subject to any final revisions, the government’s latest figures show that Australia’s emissions have fallen by 13 per cent from 611 million tonnes in 2005 to 532 million

tonnes in 2019. The same report projects that emissions will fall to 511 million tonnes in 2030, 16

per cent below the 2005 level.

After the bushfires, the government’s assertion that this is sufficient to meet its commitment to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent (based on historic overachievement) looks more like creative accounting than a credible claim.

Even more significant is the fact that neither Australia’s target, nor the sum of the targets of all the

signatory countries to the Paris Agreement, is sufficient to meet the objective of keeping the global

temperature rise this century to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels. The best available science indicates that this task requires net zero emissions by 2050, a position already adopted by Britain, New Zealand and all Australian states.