EDMONTON—Alberta’s proposals for what Premier Jason Kenney calls a “fair deal” for the province within Canada have been explored by other governments in the past, and may result in costly alternatives and more red tape for Alberta taxpayers, political analysts say.

Kenney announced the Fair Deal Panel on Saturday during his keynote speech at the Manning Centre conference in Red Deer. The panel’s mandate is to examine ways Alberta can gain more independence — including breaking away from the Canada Pension Plan, establishing its own revenue agency and police force, and drafting a separate constitution for Alberta.

“Our government is prepared to deploy every legal, economic and constitutional tool at our disposal to maximize our leverage and to win a fair deal for Alberta,” Kenney told conference attendees on Saturday.

Kenney’s announcement is likely his most important since the beginning of his premiership in May, according to Duane Bratt, a political scientist with Mount Royal University. If the ideas of the panel are implemented, he said, it could lead to a massive decentralization of Canada and the confederation.

“This is really big,” Bratt said. “It would completely change Alberta and Alberta’s place in Canada.”

The panel will be led by Preston Manning, founder of the Reform Party of Canada and long-time influential conservative politician. Other members include Stephen Lougheed, son of former Progressive Conservative premier Peter Lougheed, and Donna Kennedy-Glans, a former PC MLA. Three current United Conservative MLAs will also sit on the panel.

Part of their mandate will be to hold town halls across the province between Nov. 16 and Jan. 30, 2020, which will result in a report that will be released to government in March.

But Bratt and other analysts say they are skeptical of whether some of the panel’s ideas are necessary or economically viable for Albertans.

Kenney’s speech, as well as government media releases on the panel following its announcement, place a heavy emphasis on emulating certain measures that Quebec already has in place to establish its autonomy from Canada, like a separate pension plan. But Quebec’s unique place in the country, Bratt said, stems from the province’s strong emphasis on its identity that is strongly influenced by a distinct culture and language.

“There are very historical reasons why there are asymmetrical federalist aspects in Quebec … what is Alberta’s distinctiveness?” Bratt said.

Trevor Tombe, associate professor at the University of Calgary’s department of economics, also pointed out that Quebec never broke away from the Canada Pension Plan, but rather established its own separately at the same time.

“Disentangling ourselves from the Canada Pension Plan would be phenomenally complex,” Tombe said, and no other province has attempted it in the past.

Tombe added that many of these measures, including establishing a separate revenue agency for Alberta, would come at quite an expensive cost for Albertans. Quebec, Tombe said, spends $1.1 billion per year on its revenue agency, and he estimates Alberta would foot an annual bill of around $500 million for its own.

“(Quebec) is willing to be poorer in exchange for independence,” he said. “I am not sure that Alberta is in the same situation.”

The ideas examined by the Fair Deal Panel are not entirely new, both Tombe and Bratt pointed out. In fact, many of them were outlined in a 2001 letter to then-premier Ralph Klein, dubbed famously the “firewall letter.” It was most-notably signed by a young Stephen Harper, and was meant to express the frustrations of Albertans over Jean Chrétien’s Liberal majority win that year.

The letter asked for the creation of a provincial police service to replace the RCMP, as well as the creation of Alberta’s own revenue agency and pension plan. “If Quebec can do it, why not Alberta?” the letter asked.

A panel created in 2004 by Klein, dubbed the MLA Committee on Strengthening Alberta’s Role in Confederation, was tasked with examining those proposals, Tombe said. It found, however, that the majority of those ideas were not feasible and it would be too costly on Alberta taxpayers.

And when Harper went on to become Prime Minister in 2006, those ideas were never re-visited by him, Bratt said.

Bratt added that, much like the “firewall” letter of 2001, the Fair Deal Panel is created in response to the results of the Oct. 21 federal election, which saw Justin Trudeau win a second term as Prime Minister — a result that has angered many Albertans, and stoked a fringe, separatist movement within the province.

The panel, however, may take away some of the oxygen held by the “Wexit” movement in Alberta, Bratt said, which is calling for the province’s complete separation from Canada in favour of becoming an autonomous state.

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“The conversation now is what sort of powers does Alberta get in the confederation, and how much are we willing to pay?” he said.

But others worry that it may only stoke the flame of anger and separatism in the province. Lori Williams, a political scientist at Mount Royal University, said she believes some will expect Kenney to deliver on some of these proposals in the quest to give Alberta more autonomy, and it may backfire on him if he doesn’t.

“There’s a real chance that these town halls held (by the panel) will be quite passionate,” Williams said.

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