While the drought has exacerbated water woes, there is wider discontent about health, education and transport

'You reap what you sow': why furious rural voters are pulling the plug on the Nationals

In dissecting the New South Wales election, the recently retired Liberal minister Pru Goward described the desertion of conservative Coalition voters in her own country seat of Goulburn.

Goward compared the pattern in inland rural seats to the votes for Brexit and Donald Trump, a phenomenon that was no “flash in the pan”.

“I watched … the people taking the One Nation and the Shooters Fishers how-to-votes in my electorate – it was about 10% for both and those people were often unemployed, I could see they weren’t particularly well educated, they felt disenfranchised,” Goward told ABC radio.

“It’s about saying we understand you want a job, you want a quality of life, you want to stay living in the bush and you want to be spoken to plainly.”

Disenfranchised and uneducated. Goward’s response has not quelled the rising anger in rural seats.

Although the ruling Liberal and National state government retained office, the Nationals suffered primary swings of an average of 20%. In targeted seats where there was a strong local candidate, the swing to minor parties and independents was 40%.

It saw the loss of the two largest NSW electorates, Barwon and Murray, which are also the furthest from the state capital Sydney, and the Nationals almost lost a third seat in Dubbo. While a regional coastal electorate, Lismore, fell to Labor, in general the party’s vote was also down west of the divide.

Water bodies have turned into the Enrons of our system. Vicki Meyer

Vicki Meyer is a Deniliquin business woman, chief executive officer of Deniliquin Freighters and a former Liberal branch president in the NSW seat of Murray and the federal seat of Farrer. She has also served as director for the Coleambally Bendigo Community Bank, the Griffith Business Enterprise Centre and Murray Irrigation Limited.

“Is that Hillary Clinton talking? Why are the unemployed under the Coalition banner?” she said. “What happened to equality? Just because you’re unemployed, doesn’t mean you’re not looking for a role. Talk about entitlement!”

Meyer says in her district, water topped the list of issues that caused National party seats to fall to the Shooters Fishers and Farmers party (SFF) combined with a feeling of being taken for granted.

Like much of eastern Australia, Murray has suffered through drought and the region, which is one of the country’s irrigation districts, is hurting.

“We have zero water, which means we can’t convert water into tonnes of freight, we can’t turn it into vegetables, or wine or fodder for other parts of country. There’s no money in fresh air,” Meyer says.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest ‘I watched … the people taking the One Nation and the Shooters Fishers how-to-votes in my electorate,’ Pru Goward told ABC radio. ‘I could see they weren’t particularly well educated.’ Photograph: Joel Carrett/AAP

While the drought has exacerbated the water woes in irrigation districts, there is wider discontent about health, education and transport issues. And a tangible sense among small-to-medium businesses, including farmers, who feel squeezed between big government, big corporations and tone-deaf political representatives.

Meyer says big irrigation companies, which are privatised former government entities that deliver and regulate water as well as trade water for profit, have constructed “Rolls Royce schemes” while delivering very little water.

“Have you ever seen [the Enron documentary] The Smartest Guys in the Room? Water bodies have turned into the Enrons of our system,” Meyer says.

As attention turns to the forthcoming federal election, she has become involved in the political grassroots organisation Voices for Farrer, a campaign group in her electorate modelled on the outfit that drove the rise of the Indi independent Cathy McGowan.

Voices for Farrer is backing independent candidate and Albury mayor Kevin Mack against the Liberal sitting member Sussan Ley. Meyer says while country people have “intestinal fortitude”, they are exhausted at the constant representations being made to governments and other powerful players.

“We have done meetings, submissions, seen our local representatives and yet we are worse off,” Meyer says.

“What is the only thing we haven’t done? It’s got to happen at the ballot box.”

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The rural mood change has dominated the post-election coverage since the 23 March poll. While country voters are energised at the attention, discussions have started over the best rural alternatives.

Emboldened by the win, the SFF recently announced it was turning its gaze on the federal parliament and has been casting around for candidates. The future of the National party is a hot topic.

The party has had a shocking few years, racked by scandals while being caught flat-footed on major issues affecting its rural voters, such as climate change, drought and water supply.

Talk ranges from joining up to improve the Nationals, backing an independent or finding a viable party alternative with longevity.

Boggabilla farmer Pete Mailler ran against former National party leader Barnaby Joyce in his seat of New England in 2017. He is currently considering running in the 400,000 sq km electorate of Parkes.

He was a force behind CountryMinded – a microparty with a wide policy platform that, among other things, recognised the challenges of climate change – a subject the Nationals have denied or ignored in recent years.

CountryMinded fell flat at the ballot box and has since merged with the Australian Democrats. He worries the “Shooters” banner creates the perception of a redneck image in cities and believes voters need a credible alternative which is seen by non-rural counterparts as worthy.

“I think it’s fair to celebrate that rural and regional Australia are now prepared to change but the real challenge is giving the right alternative,” Mailler says.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest ‘There has been an appalling failure in communication so the seeds of destruction were sewn for a long time,’ says Vicki Meyer. Photograph: David Gray/Reuters

“We [country people] are the minority and we need majority to back us and our judgment.

“The candidates are moderates and I’m not sure they fit with SFF. They used SFF as a platform but unfortunately as a brand, how they are perceived [in metropolitan Australia] directly affects their ability to deliver better outcomes going forward.”

Moree farmer Oscar Pearse initially left the National party for CountryMinded but then rejoined to work from the inside. He believes country people should stay in the tent to change the party’s platform and makes the point that the Nationals gained a swing in some seats.

He handed out how-to-vote cards for Nationals MP Adam Marshall, and praised him as a moderate, future focused National, who has achieved a lot for the electorate including a new hospital and significant roads infrastructure while backing renewables projects.

“I have never heard him bagging the other side because he knows we are not interested in that nonsense,” says Pearse. “He is offering hope, not fear and he got a 5% swing.”

Pearse says it is useless to rant and would like to see the party involve more women and a younger membership.

“Perhaps it is not a bad thing to lose government, to go away to use a period to reform and restructure to make [the party] much stronger – like using a drought to fix machinery,” Pearse says.

“If you want to know what’s going on, talk to the women, so we need to increase diversity and scope of representation.”

Now 87, the journalist and founder of the SFF, John Tingle, says notwithstanding the name, he always intended it to represent a much broader platform than gun regulation and believes it has “come of age”.

He says the founding idea was to remove regulation, not just on guns, though he concedes the national firearms agreement, enacted after Port Arthur, is going nowhere.

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“My only gripe is I would rather not have the national firearms agreement, but I recognise it’s there and there to stay. They really need to fix the total maladministration and starvation of funds and staff at the firearms registry.”

Tingle, who served for 11 years in the NSW upper house, says he is most proud of the establishment of victims impact statements in the state courts and believes the SFF is pulling ahead of One Nation because Pauline Hanson’s party has no “straight path”.

With a federal election expected in May, attention has turned to country seats. Independent NSW candidate Mathew Dickerson, who just missed out in the seat of Dubbo, says the biggest issue for challengers was that the system favoured incumbents from major parties.

“[The majors] have designed the system to benefit themselves,” he says. “People might be frustrated with the Nats but they are entrenched so it is hard to get toe into the electorate,” Dickerson says.

There is also a theory that breaking the drought will ameliorate the feeling of discontent in rural seats. Meyer does not think rain will change things now.

“There has been an appalling failure in communication so the seeds of destruction were sown for a long time. They shook our hands, took our trust and you reap what you sow.”