2018 Super Tuesday Legislative Primary Preview

Super Tuesday is upon us, meaning six states have legislative races to discuss. Five states are being covered here; Click Here for California Legislative Previews.

Alabama Senate : Note: Alabama PVIs are very approximate 2012/16 PVIs from DRA as opposed to the standard reliable, 2016-only format from DKE I use for legislative previews.

AL-SD-2 (R) is an open ~R+16 seat around northwestern Huntsville and Athens. Ex-State Sen. Tom Butler (R), who served this seat as a Dem in the 90s and 2000s until losing in 2010, is facing off with Madison city councilman Steve Smith (R). There is no clear favorite in the primary.

AL-SD-4 (R) is a rural ~R+37 seat around Cullman. Incumbent Paul Bussman (R) is considered something of a maverick and on bad terms with legislative leadership. He is facing a serious challenge from Cullman city council chair Garlan Gudger (R). Bussman looks like a slight favorite but an upset is possible.

AL-SD-6 (R) is an ~R+17 seat around Florence and Tuscumbia. Incumbent Larry Stutts (R) picked this historically-Dem seat up in 2014 by just 67 votes out of 35K cast. Stutts has had a history of multiple minor issues in office, most notably attempting to repeal a medical regulation that was triggered by a malpractice suit against him in his prior career as a gynecologist. Stutts has also had some minor foot-in-mouth issues. He faces three challengers this year and is probably held to a runoff. Manager Eric Aycock (R) and banker Steve Lolley (R) are both serious and could join Stutts in a competitive second round if one is triggered. The fourth candidate, ex-State Rep. Dan Boman (R), is non-serious. You may remember that Boman was elected as an R on the 2010 wave, then switched parties to run against Rep. Robert Aderholt (R) as a Democrat in the ultra-red AL-4 in 2012 (with a campaign mostly notable for its bizarre statements) before losing re-election as a D in 2014. Boman has both carpetbagged and switched parties again to make this race and seems unlikely to be a factor, though he could make the runoff more likely by making it harder to reach 50. The primary winner will face one of the state’s few competitive legislative elections, as Dems have a top-tier recruit in longtime State Rep. Johnny-Mack Morrow (D).

AL-SD-7 (R, D) is an open ~R+10 seat covering most of Huntsville and suburbs north to the Tennessee line. Elected state school board member Mary-Scott Hunter (R) is an antiestablishment conservative who has been at times controversial on the state board, often feuding with fellow board members. However, she has significant support from antiestablishment groups and has been touted as a higher office candidate, originally seeking an LG bid before aborting it to run for this seat. Hunter is facing off with attorney and Madison County GOP chair Sam Givhan (R), who is more establishment-friendly. Both have fundraised well for this race and there is no clear favorite. For Dems, businessman Jonathan Hard (D, and not a porn star) is the front-runner for the long-shot pickup opportunity, but could be held to a runoff with either principal Deidra Willis (D) or school administrator Deborah Barros (D).

AL-SD-8 (R) is an ~R+30 seat covering Huntsville’s eastern suburbs and the northeast corner of the state. Incumbent Steve Livingston (R) should be a strong favorite over paralegal and former judicial candidate Max Fuller (R).

AL-SD-10 (R) is an open ~R+26 seat around Gadsden. State Rep. Mack Butler (R) looks like a fairly strong favorite for the GOP nomination over farmer Andrew Jones (R). The GOP nominee will face a competitive general with D-turned-I State Rep. Craig Ford.

AL-SD-12 (R) is an ~R+20 seat around Anniston. Incumbent Senate President Del Marsh (R) should be a strong favorite over Weaver (pop. 3K) Mayor Wayne Willis (R). However, Marsh was held to 60% in the primary four years ago, so an upset may be a small possibility.

AL-SD-13 (R) is a open rural ~R+18 seat in the east-central part of the state along the Georgia border. Three Republicans are facing off. Cleburne County GOP chair and 2014 candidate Tim Sprayberry (R) lost a bid for this seat in to the prior incumbent by 3% four years ago on a populist platform. He is probably the front-runner this time but is more likely than not to head to a runoff with one of his opponents. Both farmer and 2014 State House candidate Randy Price (R) and forensic scientist Mike Sparks (R) could have a chance to advance to the second round.

AL-SD-21 (R) is ~R+22 seat covering most of the suburban parts of the Tuscaloosa area and some rural territory. Incumbent Gerald Allen (R) should be a very strong favorite in his rematch with 2014 candidate Frank Chandler (R), who took a quarter of the vote four years ago.

AL-SD-25 (R) is an open ~R+16 seat covering wealthy east-central Montgomery, its eastern suburbs, and some rural areas to the south. Montgomery County commissioner Rhoda Walker (R) is facing off with attorney and 2006 candidate Will Barfoot (R); there is no clear favorite.

AL-SD-26 (D) is a ~D+29 seat covering most of Montgomery. Incumbent David Burkette (D) is facing a rematch with two candidates whom he beat in a special earlier this year, State Rep. John Knight (D) lost the runoff to Burkette by 10 points despite Knight having stronger establishment support, while Montgomery councilman Fred Bell (D) came in third in the first round with 25%. Burkette overperformed expectations in the special, but has only been an incumbent for under a month; thus, while Burkette is favored, it seems possible he is held to a runoff with either Knight or Bell.

AL-SD-32 (R) is an open ~R+30 seat around Fairhope and Gulf Shores. Four serious Republicans are facing off and the race is likely to head to a runoff. Ex-State Rep. Bill Roberts (R) is seeking a comeback here after being ousted in a 2014 primary by 4%. Baldwin county commissioner Chris Elliott (R) and Orange Beach councilman Jeff Boyd (R) also have high name rec and local bases. And dentist and state dental board member David Northcutt (R) has been the best-funded candidate. A runoff seems all but certain and any two could advance.

AL-SD-33 (D) is a ~D+27 seat covering most of urban Mobile. Incumbent Vivian Davis-Figures (D) should be a strong favorite over businessman Michael Cooley (D) and a non-serious Some Dude.

AL-SD-34 (R) is an open ~R+26 seat covering Mobile’s northern suburbs. State Rep. Jack Williams (R) should be a moderate favorite over optometrist Mike Shirey (R). However, Williams could be hurt by his name – a different State Rep. Jack Williams, also a Republican but from the Birmingham area, was indicted this spring on bribery charges. Shirey also appears to have some local establishment connections that might allow him to pull the upset.

Alabama House: Note: I have made an editorial decision to triage previewing Alabama State House Races. It’s because there is no readily available PVI source, meaning I would have to draw out the entire map in DRA to even start to analyze the races.. For the Senate that was doable, but for a 105-member House that’s just not worth the effort, particularly in a week with tons of other primaries to focus on. Sorry!

Iowa Senate :

IA-SD-1 (R) is a rural I-held R+24 seat around Spirit Lake at the northwest corner of the state. Incumbent David Johnson (I), a former Republican who left the party in protest over Trump, is running as an Indie. Three Republicans are vying to take on Johnson: Zach Whiting (R), a staffer for Rep. Steve King (R), Palo Alto County GOP chair Jesse Wolf (R), and businessman Brad Price (R). There is no clear favorite; all are serious and any of the three could prevail.

IA-SD-19 (R) is an R+5 seat covering the northern Des Moines suburbs around Ankeny. Incumbent Jack Whitver (R) should be a strong favorite over Brett Nelson (R), who has lost primaries for the legislature in the last three cycles by large margins. Whitver will start the general election favored but may face a serious challenge from businesswoman Amber Gustafson (D).

IA-SD-21 (D) is an open D+13 seat covering southwest Des Moines and its southwest suburbs. 2016 State House nominee Claire Celsi (D) is facing off with nonprofit exec Connie Ryan (D). The two have split establishment support and there is no clear favorite.

IA-SD-25 (R) is an R+14 seat covering rural areas between Ames and Waterloo. Incumbent Annette Sweeney (R), who was picked as the nominee by a cabal of insiders for a special election earlier this year and won the general by a decent margin, should be favored in the primary for the full term over chiropractor Chad Buss (R). The primary winner will be favored over special election nominee Tracy Freese (D), who is running on a very left-wing platform.

IA-SD-37 (D) is an open D+8 seat covering the Iowa City suburb of Coralville and rural areas east of Iowa City. Four Democrats are facing off. The front-runner is author Zach Wahls (D). As a college student, Wahls became a minor liberal celebrity in 2011 for an eloquent speech to the legislature during the SSM debate on his experience growing up in a lesbian-partner household. Two others, diplomat Janice Weiner (D) and attorney Eric Dirth (D), are also serious and could pull the upset, while the fourth candidate, consultant and former UN staffer Imad Youssif (D), seems like a longer-shot.

IA-SD-41 (R, D) is an open R+10 seat covering Ottumwa and rural areas to the east. For Republicans, Gov. Branstad administration official and three-time IA-2 nominee Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) has strong establishment support and should be the strong favorite over ex-Mt. Sterling Mayor Dan Cesar (R). For Dems, Fairfield Mayor Ed Malloy (D) should be favored over community college administrator Mary Stewart (D), though an upset may be possible. The general election in this historically-swingy but right-trending seat should be competitive.

Iowa House :

IA-LD-5 (R) is an open rural R+27 seat around Le Mars, north of Sioux City. Retired Dentist Tom Jeneary (R) looks like the favorite for the nomination over businessman Joseph Small (R).

IA-LD-9 (R) is an open D-held R+9 seat covering most of the Fort Dodge area. 2016 nominee Gary Waechter (R), who underperformed two years ago, is facing nurse Ann Meyer (R); there is no clear favorite in the primary. The primary winner will face physician Megan Srinivas (D) in a strong GOP pickup opportunity.

IA-LD-10 (R) is a rural R+23 seat north and west of Fort Dodge. Incumbent Mike Sexton (R) should be favored over gadfly 2014 gubernatorial candidate Tom Hoefling (R). Hoefling, an aide to pundit Alan Keyes (R), took 17% against Gov. Terry Branstad (R) in a non-serious primary challenge four years ago.

IA-LD-15 (R) is a D-held R+6 seat covering northern and western Council Bluffs. Three Republicans are vying to take on incumbent Charlie McConkey (D) in this rightward-trending seat. Local GOP official Sarah Abdouch (R) is facing businesswoman Leann Hughes (R), who is running as a fiscal moderate. There is no clear favorite between Abdouch and Hughes; a non-serious Some Dude is also in the race.

IA-LD-20 (R) is an open rural R+13 seat around Panora, west of Des Moines. Farmer and businessman Dodge Perrigo (R) is facing off with artist Ray Sorensen (R); there is no clear favorite in the primary. The primary winner should be favored over attorney Warren Varley (D) in the general.

IA-LD-23 (R) is a rural R+21 seat around Glenwood, southeast of Omaha. Incumbent David Sieck (R) should be a moderate favorite over Red Oak councilman Tony Wernicke (R), but an upset may be possible.

IA-LD-26 (R) is a D-held R+8 seat around Indianola in the outer southern Des Moines suburbs. Two Republicans are vying to take on incumbent Scott Ourth (D) in a competitive general. 2016 nominee Rebel Snodgrass (R), who lost to Ourth by 8%, is probably a slight favorite due to name recognition over attorney Jeff Janssen (R), though Janssen is serious and could pull the upset.

IA-LD-28 (R, D) is an open rural R+17 seat around Knoxville, southeast of Des Moines. Cop Jon Thorup (R) has more establishment support and looks like a slight favorite over vintner Jon Van Wyk (R), but an upset is very possible. This seat could be a long-shot Dem target as it was previously swingy. Former college president Ann Fields (D) should be favored in the primary over farmer Zachary Pendroy (D).

IA-LD-30 (D) is an R+9 seat covering most of Des Moines’s eastern suburbs around Altoona. Two Dems are vying to take on incumbent Zach Nunn (R) in an uphill general. Attorney Kent Balduchi (D) and farmer Dan Nieland (D) are facing off; Balduchi seems a slight favorite.

IA-LD-31 (D) is a D+2 seat covering the eastern end of Des Moines and some inner suburbs. Incumbent Rick Olson (D) is facing two surprisingly serious challengers in state board member and victims’ rights activist Tiffany Allison (D) and vocally left-wing local Dem official Heather Ryan (D). Vote-splitting between his challengers probably leaves Olson favored but either pulling the upset is possible. Republicans are not contesting this seat.

IA-LD-38 (D) is an R+4 seat in Des Moines’s inner northern suburbs, south of Ankeny. Two Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Kevin Koester (R) in what will likely be a competitive general. 2016 nominee and state Dem official Heather Matson (D) has strong establishment support and looks like a slight favorite in the primary over nonprofit exec Reyma McCoy-McDeid (D), but an upset is possible.

IA-LD-44 (R) is an open R+2 seat around Waukee in Des Moines’s western suburbs. Waukee councilwoman Anna Bergman (R) is facing off with insurance adjuster and prominent conservative activist Travis Grassel (R); both seem strong candidates and there is no clear favorite in the primary. The primary winner will head to a competitive general with supermarket exec Kenan Judge (D) in one of the state’s few left-trending seats.

IA-LD-47 (R) is an open R+9 seat covering Boone and rural areas to the west. Three Republicans are facing off, legislative staffer and veteran Phil Thompson (R), ex-Boone councilman Donald Batt (R), and US Rep. Steve King staffer Victoria Sinclair (R). Thompson looks like a slight favorite but any of the three could prevail. The primary winner should start as a favorite over farmer David Weaver (D) in the general.

IA-LD-56 (D) is an open rural R+13 seat around Waukon at the northeast corner of the state. Nurse Lori Egan (D) is a highly-touted recruit and should be favored over summer camp manager Andy Kelleher (D). Republicans will nominate someone by convention after the only candidate was disqualified over petition issues; the general in this historically-swingy seat should be competitive.

IA-LD-57 (D) is a rural R+11 seat wrapping around the Dubuque area but not including the city. Two Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Shannon Lundgren (R), a vocal social conservative, in this historically-swingy seat Republicans picked up on Trump’s coattails last term. Professor Nancy Fett (D) and corrections officer Leo Gansen (D) are facing off; both are serious and there is no clear favorite. The general against Lundgren will likely be uphill but not impossible for either Dem.

IA-LD-68 (D) is an open R-held D+1 seat covering most of Cedar Rapids’s eastern suburbs, including most of Marion. 2016 nominee Molly Donahue (D), who lost by 8% last time, is trying again. She looks like a moderate favorite over civil servant and veteran Scott Foens (D), though an upset is possible. The nominee will face teacher Randy Ray (R) in a competitive general.

IA-LD-72 (D) is a rural R+13 seat around Toledo, south of Waterloo. Four Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Dean Fisher (R) in an uphill general. 2016 candidate John Anderson (D), county official Mindy Benson (D), community college instructor Dave Degner (D), and retired teacher Jocelyn George (D). Benson looks like the most serious candidate but any of the four could win.

IA-LD-75 (D) is an open rural R+14 seat around Vinton, west of Cedar Rapids. Medical researcher Tom Gerhold (R) should be favored in the general, but three Dems are vying for the right to take him on. 2016 nominee Paula Dennison (D) looks like a slight favorite over 2016 State Senate nominee Dennis Mathahs (D) and labor official Doris Guilford (D), but an upset is possible.

IA-LD-80 (R) is an open rural R+22 seat around Moravia, west of Ottumwa. Insurance agent Holly Brink (R) and teacher Richard Keilig (R) are facing off. Brink looks like a slight favorite but an upset is possible.

IA-LD-83 (D) is an open D-held R+7 seat covering the Keokuk area at the state’s southeastern tip. Three Democrats are facing off. Fort Madison councilman and 2012 State Senate candidate Bob Morawitz (D), retired railroad worker and union official Jeff Kurtz (D), and nonprofit exec Michael Hardy (D), who is running on a left-wing platform. There is no clear favorite between Morawitz and Kurtz, with Hardy a long-shot. The primary winner will face veteran and businessman Jeffrey Reichman (R) in a strong GOP pickup opportunity.

IA-LD-84 (R) is an open rural R+17 seat around Mt. Pleasant. Four Republicans are facing off: businessman Martin Amos (R), businesswoman Sheila Matheney (R), and a pair of college students, Trevor Lynn (R) and Joe Mitchell (R). Amazingly enough the two college students look like the more serious candidates, though any of the four could prevail.

IA-LD-87 (R) is a D+1 seat covering most of the Burlington area. Two Republicans are vying to take on longtime incumbent Dennis Cohoon (D), who has not been challenged since 2012. A pair of business managers are facing off; Tim Goodwin (R) looks like the more serious candidate and a favorite over Travis Ingraham (R). Either will likely face an uphill general against the entrenched incumbent.

IA-LD-99 (D) is a D+5 seat covering the southern half of Dubuque. Dubuque councilwoman Lindsay James (D) and professor Brad Cavanagh (D) are both considered touted recruits by Dems; James looks like a slight favorite, but an upset is possible. The third Dem, businessman Pat Cullen (D), seems like a longer-shot. The primary winner will be favored in the general over realtor Pauline Chilton (R).

Montana Senate :

MT-SD-9 (R) is an open rural R+25 seat around Shelby, north of Great Falls. Rancher Butch Gillespie (R) looks like a slight favorite over Fairfield councilman and 2016 State House candidate Charlie Brown (R), who came in third in the State House primary last cycle.

MT-SD-14 (R) is an R+17 seat covering Havre and rural areas to the west. Appointed incumbent Russ Tempel (R) looks like a slight favorite over local GOP official Brad Lotton (R), though an upset is possible.

MT-SD-19 (R) is an open very rural R+31 seat at the state’s southeast corner. State Rep. Bill Harris (R), an antiestablishment conservative, represents half the seat and looks like a slight favorite over congressional staffer Kenneth Bogner (R) and accountant Jerry Schillinger (R), though Bogner in particular could pull the upset.

MT-SD-29 (R) is a rural R+23 seat around Park City. Incumbent David Howard (R) should be a very strong favorite over Andrew Forcier (R), who ran for State House in 2016 as a Libertarian.

MT-SD-41 (D) is an open D-held EVEN seat covering central and northern Helena. State Rep. Janet Ellis (D) should be favored to move to the upper chamber, but she is facing a serious primary challenge from attorney Mike Uda (D), who has some left-wing support. The primary winner will be favored in the general over pastor John Schmidt (R).

MT-SD-43 (R) is a rural R+20 seat around Hamilton. Incumbent Pat Connell (R) is one of the more moderate members of the legislature and facing two serious challengers to his right. Attorney and former congressional staffer Scott McLean (R) and businessman Jason Ellsworth (R) are vying to take Connell on; vote-splitting between the two probably leaves the incumbent favored, but either challenger could pull the upset.

Montana House :

MT-LD-7 (R) is an R+12 seat covering central Kalispell. Incumbent Frank Garner (R), a relative moderate, is facing a challenge from antiestablishment-leaning retired military officer Bob Welzel (R). The incumbent should be a slight favorite but an upset is possible. The primary winner will be favored over attorney Jim Cossitt (D) in the general.

MT-LD-9 (R) is an open R+24 seat covering Evergreen, a northeast suburb of Kalispell. Businessman David Dunn (R) looks like a moderate favorite over retiree Warren Illi (R).

MT-LD-14 (R) is a rural R+23 seat west of Missoula. Incumbent Denley Loge (R) should be a strong favorite over businessman James Mortenson (R).

MT-LD-17 (R) is a rural R+25 seat northwest of Great Falls. Incumbent Ross Fitzgerald (R) should be favored over retired teacher Andrew Watson (R).

MT-LD-19 (R) is a rural R+23 seat south of Great Falls. Incumbent Wendy McKamey (R) should be favored over businessman Steve Moltzan (R).

MT-LD-21 (R) is an open D-held R+11 seat around Black Eagle, a northern suburb of Great Falls. State Sen. Ed Buttrey (R) is termed-out and seeking to drop down to this seat. He should be the favorite over businessman Rickey Linafelter (R) and a white supremacist nut. The primary winner will head to a competitive general with nurse Leesha Ford (D).

MT-LD-25 (D) is an R+7 seat in east-central Great Falls. Three Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Jeremy Trebas (R), who won by just 3% two years ago. 2016 nominee Garrett Lankford (D) is back for a rematch and looks like the front-runner. However, either of Lankford’s two rivals, postal worker Jasmine Krotkov (D) and teacher Staci Bechard (D), could pull the upset. Bechard in particular has teachers’ union backing.

MT-LD-27 (R) is an open rural R+23 seat northeast of Great Falls. Farmer and 2016 candidate Darrold Hutchinson (R), who lost an open-seat primary for this seat two years ago by 15%, is making a second run and is facing insurance adjuster Josh Kassmier (R), who lost a small-town mayoral race in Fort Benton last year by 3 votes. There is no clear favorite in the primary.

MT-LD-35 (R) is an open R+35 seat around Sidney, on the North Dakota border. 2016 candidate and Richland County GOP chair Joel Krautter (R), who took 40% against the prior incumbent two years ago, is probably favored for the open seat over businesswoman Tanya Rost (R).

MT-LD-46 (R) is an open R+11 seat in northwest Billings.Yellowstone County GOP chair Josiah Loven (R) looks like the favorite in the primary over realtor Bill Mercer (R). The primary winner will head to a potentially competitive gneeral with physician Annette Giuliano (D).

MT-LD-49 (D) is an open D-held R+1 seat around downtown Billings. Local superintendent Terry Bouck (D) should be favored over nonprofit exec Emma Kerr-Carpenter (D), though an upset is possible. The primary winner will face a competitive general with realtor Stephanie Krueger (R).

MT-LD-50 (D) is an open D-held R+8 seat in central Billings west of downtown. Manager Jade Bahr (D) is facing off with retail worker Joshua Bradshaw (D); there is no clear favorite. The primary winner will face a competitive general with structural engineer Quentin Eggart (R).

MT-LD-52 (R, D) is an open R+10 seat in southwest Billings near Amend Park. For Republicans, businesswoman Deborah Rowe (R) should be favored over Rodney Garcia (R), who served as a Democratic State Rep. in the 80s and has lost two State Senate primaries in the last two cycles. For Dems, retail worker Amelia Marquez (D) should be favored over tradesman Dusty Deering (D). The GOP nominee will likely be favored in the general.

MT-LD-68 (R) is an R+20 seat covering areas south of Belgrade in the Bozeman suburbs. Incumbent Bruce Grubbs (R) should be favored over businessman Ron Murray (R), an antiestablishment conservative who lost a primary for this seat in 2010 and later settled a campaign finance violation from that race.

MT-LD-70 (R) is an open rural R+24 seat around Townsend, east of Helena. Four Republicans are facing off. Rancher Julie Dooling (R) looks like the slight favorite, but teacher and veteran Jon Jackson (R), EMT Jim Manion (R), and retiree Tim Ravndal (R) could each pull the upset.

MT-LD-75 (R) is an open rural R+16 seat between Butte and Helena. Gregg Trude (R), director of a pro-life group, looks like a moderate favorite over businessman Greg DeVries (R).

MT-LD-81 (D) is an open D-held EVEN seat stretching from downtown Helena to the northern part of town. State Sen. Mary Caferro (D) is termed out and seeking to drop down to this seat. She is facing a serious primary challenge from Helena councilman Rob Farris-Olsen (D). Caferro is one of the more moderate Dems in the legislature and Farris-Olsen is running to her left; they have split establishment support and there is no clear favorite. Republicans are not contesting this seat.

MT-LD-86 (R) is an open R+14 seat covering the town of Hamilton. School board member David Bedey (R) looks like a slight favorite over businessman Jacob DeVries (R), but an upset is possible.

MT-LD-88 (R) is an open R+18 seat covering areas around Florence, south of Missoula. Stevensville Mayor Jim Crews (R) is facing off with Sharon Greef (R), wife of the termed-out incumbent, and office manager Kim Stoltz (R). There is no clear favorite between Crews and Greef, while Stoltz seems a longer-shot.

MT-LD-89 (D) is an open D+7 seat covering the southeast part of Missoula and rural areas to the southeast. Ex-Missoula councilman Patrick Weasel-Head (D), attorneys Kate Sullivan (D) and Dirk Williams (D), and public radio exec and former Missoula council candidate Jon Van Dyke (D). Sullivan looks like a slight favorite but any of the four could prevail. The primary winner will be favored in the general over ex-State Rep. David Moore (R), who gave up an R-leaning seat in 2016 to move to this area and lost re-election in an adjacent, heavily Dem seat.

MT-LD-91 (D) is an open D+28 seat around downtown Missoula. Four Democrats are facing off. Teacher Connie Keogh (D) and gun-control group head Nancy DePastino (D) have split establishment support, and there is no clear favorite between the two. Two others, legislative staffer Alex Gray (D) and personal trainer Eric Love (D), seem like longer-shots.

MT-LD-92 (R, D) is an R+11 seat covering Missoula’s eastern suburbs and adjacent rural areas. Incumbent Mike Hopkins (R) is facing a rematch with 2016 candidate Larry Dunham (R), who he beat 41-33 for the open seat two years ago. A third candidate, realtor DJ Smith (R), is also running a serious campaign. Vote-splitting between Hopkins’s two challengers probably leaves the incumbent favored, though either could potentially pull the upset. Across the aisle, East Missoula councilwoman Lee Bridges (D) and Seeley Lake councilman Cecil Schlabach (D) are squaring off; Bridges seems a slight favorite. In spite of the PVI the general will be competitive as Hopkins won by just 2% two years ago.

MT-LD-93 (D) is an open rural D-held R+11 seat north of Missoula. Attorney and 2014 candidate Eldena Bear-Don’t-Walk and school administrator Steve York (D) are facing off; there is no clear favorite. The primary winner will head to a competitive general with ex-State Rep. Joe Read (R), who represented the area from 2010 to 2012.

MT-LD-94 (D) is a D+1 seat covering northern Missoula. Incumbent Kim Dudik (D), a relative moderate considered a potential statewide candidate, looks like a mild favorite over teachers’ union official Matt Bell (D), but an upset is possible. The primary winner will be favored in the general over contractor Dean Rehbein (R).

MT-LD-97 (D) is an R+9 seat around the Missoula suburb of Lolo. Two Dems are vying to head to an uphill general against incumbent Brad Tschida (R). 2016 primary winner Patrick Maloney (D), who withdrew after the primary, is probably favored to get a second shot over tradesman Dustin Hoon (D).

New Mexico House : Note: New Mexico’s Senate is only up in Presidential years.

NM-LD-13 (D) is a D+15 seat in middle-class Hispanic areas of outer southwest Albuquerque. Incumbent Patricia Roybal-Caballero (D) should be favored over stadium manager Bobby Atencio (D) and 2012 candidate Damian Cruzz (D).

NM-LD-22 (R) is an open R+4 seat covering Albuquerque’s mountainous eastern exurbs. PR executive and veteran Merritt Hamilton-Allen (R) is facing off with surgeon Gregg Schmedes (R); both are mainstream conservatives and there is no clear favorite. The primary winner will face teacher Jessca Velazquez (D) in a potentially competitive general.

NM-LD-24 (R) is a D+4 seat in east-central Albuquerque. Two Republicans are vying to take on one-term incumbent Liz Thomson (D) in an uphill general. Military support worker Trey Morris (R) looks like a moderate favorite over businessman Michael Meyer (R).

NM-LD-27 (D) is an R-held EVEN seat in Northeast Albuquerque around Arroyo Del Oso Park. Two Democrats are vying to take on entrenched incumbent Larry Larranaga (R) in an uphill general. 2014 Indie candidate and physician Bill Pratt (D), who took nearly 40% in a race with no Dem, should be favored over a non-serious Some Dude.

NM-LD-31 (R) is an R+3 seat in suburban areas of northeast Albuquerque. Incumbent Bill Rehm (R) should be favored over physicist Mark Boslough (R), who is running as a moderate. Dems are not contesting this seat.

NM-LD-33 (D) is an open D+11 seat covering southwestern Las Cruces. Three Dems are contesting the seat; nonprofit exec Micaela Lara-Cadena (D) has strong establishment support and looks like the front-runner. However, her two rivals, 80s-era ex-Dona Ana County Treasurer and court administrator Mary Martinez-White (D) and left-wing artist Guenevere McMahon (D), could each pull the upset.

NM-LD-34 (D) is a D+17 seat stretching from the southern suburbs of Las Cruces south to Sunland Park, near El Paso. Incumbent Bill Gomez (D) is facing a rematch with 2016 candidate Ray Lara (D), a school administrator. Gomez won 45-33 two years ago as an incumbent, so he is probably favored this time, but his performance was weak and Lara could pull the upset one-on-one.

NM-LD-40 (D) is an open rural D+15 seat east of Taos. Rio Arriba County commissioner Barney Trujillo (D), who took 43% against the prior incumbent two years ago, is probably favored due to his name recognition. However, he faces two serious rivals in Mora CE Paula Garcia (D) and utility exec Joseph Sanchez (D), either of whom could pull the upset.

NM-LD-41 (D) is a rural D+20 seat west of Taos. Longtime incumbent Debbie Rodella (D) is facing a stiff challenge from nonprofit exec and former congressional staffer Susan Herrera (D). Rodella is a moderate to conservative Dem and Herrera is running to her left; there is no clear favorite.

NM-LD-43 (D) is an open D+9 seat around Los Alamos. Los Alamos county commissioners Christine Chandler (D) and Pete Sheehey (D) are facing off; they have spit establishment support and there is no clear favorite.

NM-LD-46 (D) is a D+27 seat covering western Santa Fe and rural areas to the north. Incumbent Carl Trujillo (D) was accused last month of sexual harassment, though it’s unclear if the allegations have staying power. He is being challenged from the left by ostrich rancher Andrea Romero (D). As it’s still unclear how salient the #pervnado allegations are, there is no clear favorite.

NM-LD-52 (D) is a D+15 seat covering Las Cruces’s southern suburbs and rural areas south to the Texas border. Incumbent Doreen Gallegos (D), the third-ranking Dem in the State House, should be a strong favorite over teacher Jaime Gonzalez-Castillo (D).

NM-LD-53 (D) is an R-held D+2 seat covering Las Cruces’s eastern suburbs. Two Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Rick Little (R) in a competitive general. 2016 nominee Willie Madrid (D), who lost by 2% two years ago, is probably favored over businessman Javier Gonzalez (D).

South Dakota Senate :

SD-SD-1 (D) is an open rural D-held R+11 seat at the state’s northeast corner around Lake City. Three Dems are facing off. Ex-State Rep. and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Susan Wismer (D) is facing a serious challenge from her left in local Dem official Allison Renville (D), who is running on a bold progressive platform. Wismer is favored, but an upset is possible. A third Dem Some Dude seems non-serious; No Republicans are contesting this historically-Dem seat.

SD-SD-5 (R) is an open R+20 seat covering the Watertown area. Ex-State Rep. Lee Schoenbeck (R) is the better-known candidate, but he is also a moderate disliked by the GOP establishment for championing a sales-tax hike. Schoenbeck faces healthcare administrator Brian Callies (R), who might be able to win on base support; there is no clear favorite.

SD-SD-9 (R) is an open R+12 seat covering northwestern Sioux Falls and its northwestern suburbs. State Rep. Wayne Steinhauer (R), an establishment conservative, looks like a slight favorite over ex-State Rep. Lora Hubbel (R). Hubbel is a staunchly antiestablishment conservative who took 20% against Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) in the 2014 gubernatorial primary; however, she did come relatively close in primary challenges to the moderate prior incumbent for this seat in 2012 and 2016, so an upset is possible.

SD-SD-10 (R) is an open R+13 seat covering northeast Sioux Falls and its northeastern suburbs. Manager and local GOP official Spencer Wrightsman (R) should be favored over Margaret Sutton (R), about whom I could find nothing.

SD-SD-14 (R) is an R+5 seat in southeast Sioux Falls. Incumbent Deb Soholt (R) is establishment-friendly and somewhat moderate. She is facing a challenge from 2016 Indie candidate Tyler Swanger (R), an antiestablishment conservative who took just under a third of the vote against Soholt in the general last cycle in a race with no Dem. The incumbent should be favored but an upset is possible. The primary winner should be favored in the general over salesman Justyn Hauck (D).

SD-SD-27 (D) is an open rural D+3 seat covering reservation-heavy areas around Badlands NP. Ex-State Sen. Jim Bradford (D) is seeking to get back the seat he was termed out of in 2016. Bradford, a conservative Dem who briefly switched to the GOP a decade ago (and quickly switched back) is facing a challenge from his left in 2016 State House candidate Red Dawn Foster (D). Bradford looks like a slight favorite but an upset is possible. The primary winner will be favored over photographer Bill Hines (R).

SD-SD-29 (R) is a rural R+29 seat around Sturgis. Incumbent Gary Cammack (R) should be a sight favorite over Bill Kluck (R), president of the state ranchers’ lobby, but an upset is possible.

SD-SD-30 (R) is an open rural R+26 seat in the Black Hills at the state’s southwest corner. Ex-State Sen. Bruce Rampelberg (R), an establishment conservative, was ousted in 2016 by a more antiestablishment challenger, who is now running for AG instead of re-election. Rampelberg is now the favorite to get his seat back, as his challenger comes from his left, ex-State Rep. Patricia Shiery (R), who is quite moderate and seems unlikely to prevail.

SD-SD-33 (R) is an R+19 seat covering northern Rapid City and its western suburbs. Incumbent Phil Jensen (R), an antiestablishment conservative with some foot-in-mouth issues, is facing a serious primary challenge from Rapid City councilwoman Amanda Scott (R). Jensen won his 2016 primary easily, but came within 1% of being defeated by a more establishment leaning challenger in 2014. Jensen is thus a slight favorite, but an upset is possible.

SD-SD-35 (R) is an R+20 seat covering eastern Rapid City and its eastern suburbs. State Rep. Lynne DiSanto (R), an antiestablishment conservative, looks like a moderate favorite over insurance agent Ryan Smith (R). However, Smith has the prior incumbent’s endorsement and could pull the upset.