Unless there is something quite shattering in tonight’s TV debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Clinton is overwhelmingly likely to become the next US president. Ahead of the debate the odds put that at an 80 per cent chance, while the possibility of any other outcome is simply not factored into the financial markets at all. The only market that jumps around whenever the possibility of a Trump victory nudges up a little is the rate for the Mexican peso; a Trump presidency is not seen as bullish for the peso.

But this apparent calm is itself a worry. If people are not prepared for a political surprise, they are liable to react violently should it occur. We have seen something of that in the UK over the past four months. So what can sensibly be said – from an economic perspective – about the US under the next president? Ten thoughts.

One, this is an economy that has grown solidly since the great recession, and which is starting to get pretty close to pull capacity. In cyclical terms, some sort of slowdown should be on the horizon, though the severity of the last downturn suggests that recession is less likely than in previous cycles.

What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? Show all 8 1 /8 What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? On the leaked tape from 2005 where he talks about sexually assaulting women “I'm very embarrassed by it, I hate it, but it's locker room talk. It's one of those things. I will knock the hell out of Isis” Getty What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? On Hillary Clinton “I hate to say it but if I win I'm going to instruct my attorney general to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation. There has never been so many lies, so much deception. You ought to be ashamed of yourself.” Rex What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? On Bill Clinton “What he's done to women, there's never been anybody in the history of politics in this nation that's been so abusive to women.” AP What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? On whether his alleged opposition to Iraq War had been disproven "It’s not debunked. It’s not debunked." Getty What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? On exploiting tax loopholes "I absolutely used it, and so did Warren Buffett, and so did George Soros and so did many people who Hillary is getting money from." Getty What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? On claims he's sexist “I have great respect for women. Nobody has more respect for women than I do.” Reuters What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? On what he respects about Hillary Clinton “I will say this about Hillary - she doesn't quit, she doesn't give up. I tell it like it is. She's a fighter.” Reuters What did Donald Trump say during the second presidential debate? On his controversial immigration policies "It’s called extreme vetting. We’re going to areas like Syria, where they are coming in by the tens of thousands because of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton wanting to allow a 550 per cent increase [of refugees] over Obama. People are coming into this country. We have no idea who they are, where they are from and what their feelings are about this country." Getty

Two, despite nearing full capacity, the US is still running a fiscal deficit of 3.2 per cent of GDP. There is no obvious scope for a looser policy.

Three, the plans of the two candidates are utterly different: huge cuts in taxation from Donald Trump; modest rises in taxation at the top end under Hillary Clinton. But you have to take all such plans with a pinch of salt. For, as in that adage “the president proposes but congress disposes”, fiscal policy will be largely determined by the legislators, not the administration.

So, point four, it is safe to assume that the US deficit will remain high, maybe growing a bit, through the next four years. Financial markets will have to feel comfortable with that, probably bidding up long-term interest rates as a result.

And if that is right, the present era of ultra-easy money will draw to a close. If long rates go up, the Federal Reserve will put up short rates. Already the market expects this, and the debate is about when and by how much it increases rates, not about whether.

This will affect the rest of the world. In the short-term the dollar is likely to get stronger. If you have spare cash better to have it earning some interest in dollars, rather than none in euros or yen. In the long-term, rates around the rest of the world will be pulled up too.

Seven, there is a danger, much greater under Trump than under Clinton, that US support for free trade will weaken. Globalisation is seen as working against the interests of ordinary US workers. Disruption of US trade with China is quite possible – maybe not a trade war, but a cooler relationship eventually leading to slower growth worldwide.

Whoever wins will have to lead a deeply divided nation, not just socially, politically and geographically – we all know that – but also structurally. This is not just a Wall Street/Main Street thing. What is happening in the high-tech industries of the West Coast is utterly different from just about everywhere else. These structural fissures will in all probability widen over the next four years.

Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Show all 28 1 /28 Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Brian Adcock Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Brian Adcock Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Brian Adcock Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Brian Adcock Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Brian Adcock Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Brian Adcock Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Brian Adcock Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Dave Brown Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Brian Adcock Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Brian Adcock Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Christian Adams for Daily Telegraph Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Martin Rowson for The Guardian Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Christian Adams for Daily Telegraph Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Morten Morland for The Times Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Bob Moran for Daily Telegraph Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Christian Adams for Daily Telegraph Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Morten Morland for The Times Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' KAL for The Economist Trumped! The best cartoons on 'The Donald' Martin Rowson for The Guardian

Other countries, notably China and Russia, will want to test the new president. For whoever wins, that will be seen as an opportunity to advance their interests against those of the US. We could see a very bumpy 2017.