Rand Paul is once again the talk of the Senate. The question on everyone’s mind: Will he cave again?

No other senator has more of a knack for becoming the center of attention seemingly every time there’s a controversial close vote — in the past year alone, he commanded the spotlight on Obamacare repeal, the budget, and now confirming Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks.


And with the Senate preparing for a nail-biter on Trump’s CIA nominee Gina Haspel, the chamber is abuzz over the latest will-he-or-won’t-he Rand guessing game. The libertarian-leaning Kentucky senator says he’s a hard “no,” but Democrats and Republicans believe he may yet fold under pressure from Trump, as he did with Mike Pompeo for secretary of state.

Aside from the palace intrigue, Paul’s vote will provide more clues about his relationship with Trump, his onetime rival for the Republican presidential nomination, and might even determine whether Haspel can get through the Senate. If Paul opposes the CIA pick, Haspel has little margin for error unless more Democrats besides Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana back her.

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Paul had a simple answer when asked if he again can be persuaded by the president to support one of his crucial nominees: “No.”

“Someone who has been an active participant and enthusiast for torture is not someone who should represent America,” Paul said in an interview as he left the Senate for the week on Thursday.

His colleagues aren’t so sure.

“I love Rand. But you probably shouldn’t count his vote until it’s cast,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who has worked with Paul on foreign policy matters. “He lets people make arguments right up until the last minute.”

Much as he did before Pompeo’s eventual confirmation, Paul has been digging in ahead of the floor vote on Haspel. In a POLITICO op-ed Friday, he criticized the CIA nominee for selectively releasing information about her record of harsh interrogation techniques on detainees and said “that fact alone should be enough to cause the Senate reject her nomination.”

Paul also launched a dual attack on Pompeo and Haspel in March, vowing to do “everything I can to block them.” Plus, he's opposed the past two CIA directors under both Trump and President Barack Obama.

Paul’s eleventh-hour turn in favor of Pompeo, which came after a private conversation with Trump, has raised suspicion among colleagues that Paul could do another 180. If a pair of undecided Republicans oppose Haspel as well, his opposition could prove pivotal, or at a minimum contribute to the narrowest confirmation of a CIA director in history, a notable blemish for a new intelligence chief.

“He’s not for the most part a guy who’s going to change his mind once he makes it on certain core issues. But there’s nothing wrong with changing your mind based on new information,” said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a member of the Intelligence Committee and the Foreign Relations Committee, who supports Haspel. “What’s the point of meeting people or learning new things if you’re not prepared to use what you learn?”

“It did surprise us on Pompeo,” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas). A similar last-minute conversion on Haspel, he added, “would be terrific.“

For Paul, it’s the latest test of his resolve in the face of enormous pressure from his party and the president to toe the party line. The evidence of which way he’ll go is mixed, though he and his aides insist this time is different.

In February, Paul single-handedly caused a brief government shutdown by refusing to relent in his opposition to a budget deal, but then backed off before forcing a second one in March. In the case of Pompeo, he relented after being personally lobbied by the president, saying that Trump and Pompeo agree with him that the Iraq war was a mistake and that it’s time to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

This time around, Paul has spoken with Trump about Haspel. But Trump has not yet publicly called out Paul him as he did with Pompeo, when the president said the senator has “never let me down.”

A White House official said the administration doesn’t believe Paul will end up voting for Haspel, in part to preserve his credibility.

With Republican leaders essentially having given up trying to change Paul’s mind when he’s dug in, Trump appears to be the only capable of doing that.

“Hopefully, the president and Gina can persuade him,” said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a key senator pushing Haspel’s nomination.

The dynamics surrounding Haspel’s nomination are different from those surrounding Pompeo’s. Paul does not serve on the Senate Intelligence Committee, which will hold the first vote on Haspel’s nomination. Pompeo was first taken up by the Foreign Relations Committee, which Paul does sit on, and his opposition threatened an embarrassing “unfavorable” vote by the panel.

For now, Haspel is short of votes for confirmation. Manchin, an Intelligence Committee member, and Donnelly support her. But other moderate Democrats such as Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota are not yet behind her, and neither are Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah).

Though he‘s unlikely to be present for the vote, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) came out against Haspel last week over what he called her evasive responses to questions about the morality of torture, which he called “disqualifying.” That marks one of the few times the hawkish McCain and libertarian-leaning Paul have agreed — McCain once called Paul “wacko,” and Paul last year said McCain was “unhinged” — on foreign policy.

Paul has “been pretty explicit about” his opposition to Haspel, said Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), an ally of the Kentucky Republican on surveillance and interrogation issues. “And John McCain ... raised the bar quite a bit.”

Still, most of Wyden’s colleagues can’t help but be skeptical.

“He’s typically not stuck to his guns. We spend a lot of time amused on the Democratic side by the so-called hold-outs … they always cave,” said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). “I wouldn’t be surprised” if Paul changes his vote.

Asked to respond to those doubts, Paul had a curt response: “I’m a ‘no.’”