1) Guardiola’s defence faces ultimate test in Liverpool

Manchester City are enduring a difficult season; we know this because they are in the last 16 of the Champions League and third in the league, seven points off the top. Which is to say that they are a decent and dangerous team, though the criticism they have received is not without foundation. In particular, City’s league defeats are telling, coming against Spurs, Chelsea and Leicester. All three teams play at a ferocious pace, harrying the opposition and countering quickly – rather like Liverpool, their opponents on Saturday evening. City know that they will be denied time on the ball, and against the league’s leading scorers, by far, a backline that looked ill-equipped for the division in general, let alone Guardiola’s stylistic flourishes, is certain to be tested. Of course it is difficult to impose and adapt a method on the hoof in an intensely competitive competition, but at the same time, a creative but suspect defence is all very well when you have the midfielders to ensure that it is rarely under duress; less so when you do not. In replacing Joe Hart with Claudio Bravo and only bringing in John Stones, Guardiola might have been given himself more options against teams likely to sit back, but at Anfield they will not find one of those. And yet it is entirely possible that David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Agüero will click and take them to the cleaners. We should be in for an absolute belter. DH

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2) Wenger must make Giroud feel valued

The best football teams tend to have options and variety, and if there is a criticism of late-Wenger-era Arsenal – if there is – it is that they have lacked both. Through their title-winning years in wide areas they could variously perm from Ray Parlour, Marc Overmars, Freddie Ljungberg, Robert Pires on the wing, along with Sylvain Wiltord who could also play up front. This gave them balance, and it is only in recent months that they have rediscovered it: Alexis Sánchez is a one-man forward line while Theo Walcott, Alex Iwobi, Aaron Ramsey and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are all good and different – likewise the returning Danny Welbeck. But amid these relative riches, Arsenal must not forget Olivier Giroud. Often the subject of ridicule for the crime of being merely excellent rather than brilliant, Giroud has more than enough to account for the majority of Premier League teams, even if he is not what the first-choice striker of champions looks like. In Arsenal’s last game he nabbed them a crucial late winner, and a game at home to a Crystal Palace side not exactly strong at the back is precisely the kind of fixture in which Arsène Wenger should use him; not off the bench, if things are not going well, but from the start. Though Giroud wants to stay at the Emirates, it is not easy to retain players who know they are not first choice, especially if there is no steady supply of medals to placate them, so Arsenal must ensure that he feels valued because should he end up leaving, the chances are he will be replaced by an inferior player. DH

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Facebook Twitter Pinterest Danny Welbeck has returned to Arsenal training and offers Arsène Wenger a much-needed alternative. Photograph: Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images

3) Will Hughes take the blame for Stoke stagnation?

The king is dead, long live the king? Alan Pardew was previously the man upon whom no blame could be placed, who shifted the responsibility for his side’s defeats towards his players and most definitely away from himself. Mark Hughes made a handy bid for the vacant title after Stoke’s defeat by Liverpool, though. “I don’t think too many teams come here and play two up top,” he said. “And they didn’t deal with it very well. I am sure a lot of other teams will look at what we did today and try to replicate it.” It is worth remembering that, despite this obvious tactical masterclass paying off, Stoke did lose 4-1. So why? “We haven’t defended correctly which is a shame. We came here with a good game plan and for the most part we caused them real problems in the first half and they didn’t really deal with it well … Because of individual and collective errors we have been beaten by four goals, which is a bit unfair on us.” In summary: the manager did his job, but was let down by the pesky players. Funny, that. It is also worth pointing out that Stoke are 13th, and their five victories this season have come against the current bottom three, plus Watford and Burnley: not exactly what you would describe as scalps. It might be harsh to suggest Stoke are going backwards, but before they travel to Chelsea on Saturday they are certainly not going forwards. One wonders whose fault that is. NM

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4) Karanka must strike a balance against his old friend

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“Yes, it was one of the first,” said Aitor Karanka when asked if he looked out for Middlesbrough’s first fixture this season against his old boss, José Mourinho. The two men are old friends as well as colleagues (Karanka said they would share “a glass of wine or a beer or coke” after the game), but their personalities and styles of football are different. Karanka’s deliberate, slow passing approach is more reminiscent of the man Mourinho replaced at Manchester United, and is probably the main reason for Boro’s poor scoring record (they have scored 16 goals this term, only Hull have fewer). Will that change in this game though? “I have to do something different because José knows me,” said Karanka. The question is, what? A counterattacking approach relying on the pace of Adama Traoré? Long balls? Whatever it is, Karanka will have to strike a balance between changing enough to flummox his opponent while not flummoxing his own team. NM

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Facebook Twitter Pinterest Might Aitor Karanka deploy Adama Traoré, left, in order to unlock Manchester United’s defence? Photograph: Lindsey Parnaby/AFP/Getty Images

5) Ranieri’s motivational Mahrez gamble

Dropping an underperforming player is not a revolutionary tactic: indeed, it is what is known in the business as “management”. What is slightly more unusual, particularly for Claudio Ranieri, is publicly digging said player out when asked about it afterwards. “He’s not in good form now and I wanted to stimulate him,” Ranieri said of Riyad Mahrez after leaving him on the bench for the defeat by Everton. “I didn’t see him do well during the training sessions and he must give more for the team. I want more.” Still, it is both a gamble and a relatively straightforward motivational tactic – the question now is whether it will work. Ranieri and Leicester need it to against West Ham on Saturday if they are going to get out of the mess they find themselves in. NM

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6) Spurs must capitalise on exceptional win

In the last round of fixtures but one, every side now in the top six took three points apart from Arsenal; in the last round of fixtures, five of that six took three points before Tottenham made the tricky trip to Southampton. And their hosts flew at them from kick-off, their pressure winning them a free-kick from which they scored and initiating a period of dominance that looked good enough to settle the game. This was a problem for Spurs. The fixture was billed as one they had to win to retain any title-winning hopes, but the truth is that it is long gone. On the other hand, their struggle to make the Champions League is real, and they could not afford to lose any more ground in that regard either. Of the six teams competing for those four places, it is Spurs who are most reliant on a team structure, lacking the transcendent individuals able to render systems and tactics irrelevant. But at St Mary’s they found both, Mousa Dembélé, Moussa Sissoko and Dele Alli combining to fashion a goal out of nothing, and after that, the Spurs of last season – the Spurs that pounded Manchester City in October – took over. So the question now is whether they are able to sustain that level of performance; Watford away is precisely the kind of fixture that traditional Spurs would take care to lose, mitigating an uplifting performance with an appalling one as though it were an immutable law of the cosmos. Against Watford they cannot afford to do this; it is time their classy players hit form. DH

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Facebook Twitter Pinterest Eric Dier, Christian Eriksen and Harry Kane celebrate Tottenham’s second goal, scored by Kane, on route to a 4-1 victory over Southampton in midweek. Photograph: James Marsh/Rex Shutterstock

7) Hull still adjusting to their new system

The three-man defence enjoys a renaissance every now and then. Sometimes managers will put a lot of thought into a switch in system, coming to the conclusion that it is the best fit for the players available to them and the easiest method of defeating the opposition in front of them. But sometimes they will try it because nothing else is working. Without wishing to traduce Mike Phelan’s tactical reputation, one suspects that Hull’s switch to a 3-5-2 system belongs in the latter camp. “The players have bought into the new formation,” said Phelan, rather hopefully, this week. “We need to use it to its best.” You can’t blame Phelan for trying, and while it does not seem to be working too well at the moment in terms of results – they have one point in the four games since Phelan introduced it – performances have not been bad. They kept Manchester City at bay in the first half last time out and in the end did not deserve to lose 3-0. Still, ultimately they need those promising performances to translate into results, rooted to the bottom of the table as they are, starting against Everton on Friday. “It’s not an impossible mission,” said Phelan. At least he is keeping his spirits up. NM

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8) Will Swansea’s players step up?

If 2016 has shown us anything, it is that humans have a dazzling and infinite capacity to ruin nice things. Consider, for example, Swansea City. Not that long ago the club was an upwardly-mobile beacon of probity, chaired by Huw Jenkins, a lifelong fan, and co-owned by its supporters’ trust. But, in the summer, American owners took over, the deal apparently done behind the back of Huw Cooze, the trust’s representative on the board – who later resigned following a kerfuffle over payments. And since then, the schism between supporter and suit has only widened, forcing the appointment of a chief operating officer to mediate between the two. Unsurprisingly, events on the pitch have developed in similar vein, the boardroom instability reflected in a churn of managers and a playing squad light on both numbers and quality. As things stand now, Swansea are going down, and they know that it is not always easy to come back. On the other hand, the sacking of Bob Bradley and the opening of the transfer window gives them an opportunity to save themselves. Should they appoint the right man and back him financially, they are not yet so far adrift as to be beyond salvation. But in the meantime, Bournemouth at home is precisely the kind of fixture that they must win, permanent manager or not, and regardless of who gets the job and what goes on in the boardroom, the players know how to kick, how to run and how to try. It is up to them to take responsibility. DH

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9) Moyes getting best out of Sunderland

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Though, in the end, Sunderland were handily beaten on Boxing Day, they showed enough in the course of that game to suggest that, finally, the team understand the nuances and intricacies of Moyesball. They were disciplined and obdurate in defence, confident in midfield and, when possible, enterprising in attack. But the truth is that achieving relegation with a scorer of Jermain Defoe’s pedigree and reliability would represent no small achievement. Whatever the gripes about a young, small and injured squad, Sunderland should have more than enough to do their usual. However, they could really do with winning at Burnley this weekend, all the more so given the arrival of Sam Allardyce at Crystal Palace, the team immediately above them. Fittingly, the best way for them to doing that is not pretty; Burnley will look to play through midfield, so Sunderland must try to avoid it, employing the pace, power, energy and intelligence of Defoe and Victor Anichebe as often and as early as possible – which should also be a good test for Michael Keane at the heart of the home defence. This game is unlikely to be aesthetic, but will be all the more compelling for that. DH

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10) Will Tadic get a chance for Southampton?

Southampton have been a funny team this season. Their inconsistency has been maddening, and they displayed their full frustrating range in the defeat by Tottenham on Wednesday, starting well, not capitalising on their initial dominance, then fading badly; in short, the good things they do are usually wiped out by the bad things. They are currently eighth, so criticism seems a little harsh, but in terms of points they are only one closer to sixth than they are to the bottom three. One slight curiosity is why Dusan Tadic has been out of the team of late. He has not started the last three games and against Tottenham one of the reasons they could not break through was an absence of nous and invention, exactly the sort of thing Tadic would provide, certainly more so than the entertaining but infuriating Sofiane Boufal. Southampton are likely to face a doughty defence versus West Brom, again the sort of opposition that Tadic’s skills should suit. NM

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