The litmus test for Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath will take place on March 11 when Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha seats will go to polls after being vacated by him and his deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya respectively. There is no denying that BJP has been in pole position ever since the monk turned politician took over the reins of the state last year. But former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has managed a coup of sorts by convincing BSP supremo Mayawati to counter Yogi in the by-polls.

BJP leaders have been trying to create an impression that there is no alliance on the ground between the two regional parties but the message lies in the fine print. Mayawati told journalists in Lucknow, “We have not floated any candidate for Phulpur & Gorakhpur by-polls. Our party members will exercise their vote to defeat the BJP candidate.” Passing of vote to defeat BJP may technically not be an electoral alliance for Mayawati, but it has given enough indication to foot soldiers like BSP coordinators in Allahabad and Gorakhpur to do the needful against BJP.

UP CM @myogiadityanath recalls state guest house attack on Mayawati amidst SP-BSP proximity speculation https://t.co/0rVMyPRmyg via @TOILucknow pic.twitter.com/F08eeAzIso — Times of India (@timesofindia) March 4, 2018

In 2014 Lok Sabha, BJP had polled 503,564 and 539,127 votes in Phulpur and Gorakhpur respectively but their numbers dipped to 429,674 and 452,495 votes respectively in the assembly-wise breakup of the two seats in 2017 assembly elections. In contrast, SP and BSP recovered from jointly securing 358,966 and 402,756 votes in 2014 to 519,616 and 525,126 votes during 2017 assembly polls in assembly segments of Phulpur and Gorakhpur respectively.

Akhilesh Yadav rose over anti-BSP feeling https://t.co/QrF38VSnPz — TOI Lucknow News (@TOILucknow) March 5, 2018

Gorakhpur may still be a foregone conclusion due to Yogi’s past winning record and the Gorakhnath temple’s association with the region. But Phulpur could present a totally different picture as the seat had remained with JD, SP or BSP right from 1989 and it was only in 2014 that Maurya managed to wrest it for BJP. This could make the by-polls an even contest between the popularity of Yogi versus the caste arithmetic of SP-BSP.