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--> A midday take on what's happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha--breaks down crying hysterically.

The Hill's 12:30 Report -- Presented by MAPRx -- Trump to launch reelection bid in Orlando | What to watch | Supporters camp out ahead of rally | Baby Trump balloon to greet president | Polls show Trump cutting into Biden lead in key states | Trump threatens to deport millions starting next week | Ocasio-Cortez stokes controversy by comparing detention centers to 'concentration camps' | GOP worries about Trump relaunching fight over ObamaCare

HAPPENING TONIGHT

He HAS to top riding down the escalator in 2015

Elephants! Hot air balloon! Riding in on a wrecking ball maybe?:

President Trump Donald John TrumpSteele Dossier sub-source was subject of FBI counterintelligence probe Pelosi slams Trump executive order on pre-existing conditions: It 'isn't worth the paper it's signed on' Trump 'no longer angry' at Romney because of Supreme Court stance MORE is officially kicking off his 2020 reelection campaign tonight at a "Make America Great Again" rally in Orlando, Fla.

This is so well said -- via The New York Times's Peter Baker: "The coming election is shaping up as a test -- not just of the man but of his country. Was Mr. Trump's victory the last time around a historical fluke or a genuine reflection of America in the modern age? Will the populist surge that lifted him to the White House run its course or will it further transform a nation and its capital in ways that will outlast his presidency? What kind of country do Americans really want at this point?" Full article -- it's a good read: https://nyti.ms/2KnTMK7

Livestream of Trump's 8 p.m. EDT rally: https://cs.pn/31F1LYE

Throwback to the 2015 escalator ride: Here are descriptions from people who attended: https://politi.co/2KmxKat

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH AT TRUMP'S RALLY:

Reasoning for each from The Hill's Niall Stanage: http://bit.ly/2Xj1xHb

It's Tuesday. I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com -- and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook.

Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn

THIS MORNING, RIGHT BEFORE TRUMP'S VISIT:

The Orlando Sentinel published an editorial announcing its presidential endorsement: "Not Donald Trump." Read the op-ed: http://bit.ly/2KS9fBw

Why it's noteworthy: "Sentinel has a long history of endorsing Republicans for president including Romney over Obama in 2012." (Tweet from CNN's Jake Tapper Jacob (Jake) Paul TapperThe media's misleading use of COVID-19 data Julia Louis-Dreyfus: 'We can't spend much time grieving' Ginsburg Pence aide dismisses concerns rushed vote on Trump nominee will hurt vulnerable senators MORE) http://bit.ly/2KY8oiQ

SIGHTS AND SOUNDS IN ORLANDO:

Because of course it is: The Baby Trump balloon will be in Orlando, Fla., today: http://bit.ly/2x0rpsz

People have been waiting for 40+ hours (!): Supporters started lining up at 2:30 a.m. Monday morning. http://bit.ly/2IUpADg

Video of people camping out: This looks like a fun tailgate party: http://bit.ly/2XUPNHR

NEW POLL -- TRUMP IS EDGING HIS WAY IN:

According to a new Firehouse-Optimus survey, President Trump has cut into former Vice President Joe Biden's lead in Wisconsin -- and the two are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The numbers: http://bit.ly/2XYwvBA

IN THE WHITE HOUSE

Announced this morning -- talk to me, China:

President Trump said he will have an "extended meeting" with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week to discuss trade. http://bit.ly/2WNpCqa

Where the meeting will be held: At the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan

Trump tweeted: "Had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China. We will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting." http://bit.ly/2WObcWJ

Trump threatens 'millions' of deportations:

Last night, President Trump tweeted that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will begin to deport "millions" of undocumented immigrants. http://bit.ly/2WThZi3

When: Starting next week.

Trump also added: "Mexico, using their strong immigration laws, is doing a very good job of stopping people long before they get to our Southern Border. Guatemala is getting ready to sign a Safe-Third Agreement. The only ones who won't do anything are the Democrats in Congress. They must vote to get rid of the loopholes, and fix asylum! If so, Border Crisis will end quickly!" http://bit.ly/2RjwW6U

REACTION FROM AOC -- SHE COMPARED IT TO NAZI GERMANY:

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Alexandria Ocasio-CortezOn The Money: Anxious Democrats push for vote on COVID-19 aid | Pelosi, Mnuchin ready to restart talks | Weekly jobless claims increase | Senate treads close to shutdown deadline McCarthy says there will be a peaceful transition if Biden wins Anxious Democrats amp up pressure for vote on COVID-19 aid MORE (D-N.Y.) called President Trump a fascist and argued that the detention centers holding undocumented immigrants are "exactly" like concentration camps in Nazi Germany. http://bit.ly/2RiNmwc

Her full quote: "The U.S. is running concentration camps on our southern border, and that is exactly what they are. If that doesn't bother you ... I want to talk to the people that are concerned enough with humanity to say that 'never again' means something." http://bit.ly/2RiNmwc

Where she made these comments: In an Instagram Live video. http://bit.ly/2HscBca

^ Let's just say not everyone agreed with AOC: Rep. Liz Cheney Elizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyGOP lawmakers distance themselves from Trump comments on transfer of power Graham vows GOP will accept election results after Trump comments Liz Cheney promises peaceful transfer of power: 'Fundamental to the survival of our Republic' MORE (R-Wyo.) blasted Ocasio-Cortez for her concentration camp remarks. Cheney tweeted: "Please @AOC do us all a favor and spend just a few minutes learning some actual history. 6 million Jews were exterminated in the Holocaust. You demean their memory and disgrace yourself with comments like this." http://bit.ly/2XgIZYd

^ AOC responded to the criticism: "And for the shrieking Republicans who don't know the difference: concentration camps are not the same as death camps. Concentration camps are considered by experts as 'the mass detention of civilians without trial.' And that's exactly what this administration is doing." http://bit.ly/2MT8E56

And specifically to Liz Cheney: "Hey Rep. Cheney, since you're so eager to "educate me," I'm curious: What do YOU call building mass camps of people being detained without a trial? How would you dress up DHS's mass separation of thousands children at the border from their parents?" http://bit.ly/2MWU1Od

IN CONGRESS

Republicans would like it to ~stay~ on the back burner:

Via The Hill's Alexander Bolton, "President Trump has put the issue of health care back on the political front burner, providing ammunition to Democrats and worrying Republicans who think a new battle over ObamaCare will hurt their party in next year's elections." http://bit.ly/2MVDIkD

Why Republicans are nervous: "Senate Republicans, defending 22 seats next year, thought they had put ObamaCare repeal behind them when they told Trump earlier this year that they have no intention of acting on a health care overhaul before the election."

And they don't know what to expect: "Republican lawmakers have little idea of what to expect and say there hasn't been communication from the administration on the issue."

NOTABLE TWEETS

This kid is going places:

This little guy refused to throw out the first pitch until he was on the mound. pic.twitter.com/X4VsnV0Zpx — Matt Lisle (@CoachLisle) June 16, 2019

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ON TAP

The House and Senate are in. President Trump is in Washington, D.C., and Vice President Pence is in Miami. Trump and Pence are meeting in Orlando, Fla., later today.

11:30 a.m. EDT: President Trump received an intelligence briefing.

12:05 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence and Karen Pence Karen Sue PenceTrump met with chants of protest as he pays respects to Ruth Bader Ginsburg How fast population growth made Arizona a swing state The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden, Pence elbow bump at NYC Sept. 11 ceremony MORE tour the USNS Comfort in Miami.

12:30 p.m. EDT: The Senate breaks for weekly caucus luncheons. The Senate's full schedule today: http://bit.ly/31w22Ng

3:20 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence and Karen Pence land in Orlando, Fla.

3:50 p.m. EDT: President Trump and first lady Melania Trump Melania TrumpThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump faces backlash after not committing to peaceful transition of power FBI director casts doubt on concerns over mail-in voting fraud Trump: 'We could hardly hear' boos, chanting at Supreme Court MORE leave Washington, D.C., for Orlando, Fla.

6:30 p.m. EDT: The House votes. The House's full schedule today: http://bit.ly/2MUJ8N2

7:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump speaks at a private Trump Victory reception in Orlando.

10 a.m. EDT Wednesday: House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff Adam Bennett SchiffSchiff claims DHS is blocking whistleblower's access to records before testimony GOP lawmakers distance themselves from Trump comments on transfer of power Rubio on peaceful transfer of power: 'We will have a legitimate & fair election' MORE (D-Calif.) speaks at the National Press Club. Details: http://bit.ly/31H5kgU

Late June: Former Vice President Joe Biden is holding high-dollar fundraisers in California. http://bit.ly/31FpzeL

June 26: The Hill is hosting "The Future of Healthcare Summit." Featured speakers: Sen. Bill Cassidy William (Bill) Morgan CassidyCoushatta tribe begins long road to recovery after Hurricane Laura Senators offer disaster tax relief bill Bottom line MORE (R-La.), the Food and Drug Administration's Dr. Amy Abernethy, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel and Nano Vision CEO Steve Papermaster. Details and how to RSVP: http://bit.ly/2Xc4Ksb

WHAT TO WATCH

12:40 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a press conference in Miami with Adm. Craig Faller, commander of the U.S. Southern Command. Livestream: http://bit.ly/2KYGZgH

2:30 p.m. EDT: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a hearing on Russia and Ukraine. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2KXT8Cv

6:30 p.m. EDT: Beto O'Rourke Beto O'RourkeJimmy Carter says his son smoked pot with Willie Nelson on White House roof O'Rourke endorses Kennedy for Senate: 'A champion for the values we're most proud of' 2020 Democrats do convention Zoom call MORE appears on NBC's "My Big Idea."

8 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally to officially launch his reelection bid. Livestream: https://cs.pn/31F1LYE

NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...

Today is International Picnic Day.

This is a sad, but interesting list:

Via Eater Washington, D.C., here's a list of D.C.-area restaurants that have closed in 2019: http://bit.ly/2ZtflfC

Looking to buy?:

Via The Washington Post, "Condo where Bob Woodward left messages for Deep Throat during Watergate lists for $349,000." Details: https://wapo.st/2ZxusEG

And to break up your Tuesday afternoon, here's a dog auditioning to be a statue: http://bit.ly/2L4isa7