Monday Tailgate: Mapping when undefeated teams will lose

Jesse Yomtov | USA TODAY Sports

Heading into Week 5 of the college football season, 29 Football Bowl Subdivision teams remain unbeaten.

What does that mean? For one, based on history we can expect at least two dozen (definitely more) of them to not be unbeaten months from now when the Bowl Championship Series is set.

USA TODAY Sports offers a field guide for how long each unbeaten will last:

Week 5

Georgia Tech (3-0) vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies' stingy defense grinds out a win against Paul Johnson's crew.

LSU (4-0) at Georgia: A week after giving up 213 yards rushing against Auburn, the Tigers get brought down to earth by Todd Gurley and the Bulldogs.

UCF (3-0) vs. South Carolina: The Knights lose at home to a national title contender two games before getting their shot at Louisville.

Minnesota (4-0) vs. Iowa: Entering Big Ten play having gone undefeated against the 184th-ranked schedule in the country, Jerry Kill's Gophers fall to Iowa at home.

Arizona (3-0) at Washington: Yet to face anybody worthwhile, the Wildcats lose to a Washington squad that trails only Baylor and Oregon, averaging 629 yards of offense.

Colorado (2-0) at Oregon State: The Buffaloes open Pac-12 play with a loss against an Oregon State team that has come on strong, winning three in a row since losing to FCS Eastern Washington.

Ole Miss (3-0) at Alabama: The Rebels have started the season hot, but Alabama is ultimately too much to keep the undefeated run going.

Week 6

Maryland (4-0) at Florida State: Finally facing a competent team, one of the best in the country at that, the Terps pick up their first loss.

Miami (3-0) vs. Georgia Tech: In its ACC opener, Miami is ill-prepared for the Yellow Jackets, losing to Tech for the first time since 2008.

Northwestern (4-0) vs. Ohio State: Yet to face anyone of value, the Wildcats lose at home in their Big Ten opener.

Washington (3-0) vs. Stanford. Quarterback Keith Price and running back Bishop Sankey are one of the most dangerous combinations in the country, but will face a Stanford team starting to hit its groove.

Week 7

Michigan (4-0) at Penn State: The Wolverines have flirted with disaster in their last two games and will finally pay the price in State College.

Missouri (3-0) at Georgia: The Tigers run into a team that's the class of the SEC East.

Week 8

Stanford (3-0) vs. UCLA: Riding a 14-game winning streak, the Cardinal loses at home to UCLA, as Brett Hundley finally breaks into mainstream Heisman discussion.

Navy (2-0) vs. Toledo: The Midshipmen get out to a 5-0 start, but ultimately lose to the Rockets, whose only two losses have come to currently-undefeated SEC teams in Florida and Missouri.

Florida State (3-0) at Clemson: In the much-anticipated showdown of undefeated teams, Tajh Boyd is the first to unlock the Seminoles' defense, bringing their national championship hopes to an end.

Houston (3-0) vs. BYU: Houston gets to 5-0 before being overwhelmed by BYU's ground game.

Week 9

Clemson (3-0) at Maryland: The Tigers have been prone to the big play, and Maryland has the weapons to expose Clemson. The national championship dream comes to an end early.

Texas Tech (4-0) at Oklahoma: The Red Raiders get the Big 12's worst teams in their next three games, and finally fall when faced with elite competition.

UCLA (3-0) at Oregon: A week after upsetting Stanford, the Bruins can't pull off the double play, losing in Eugene.

Week 10

Oklahoma State (3-0) at Texas Tech: Weeks away from perfection, the Cowboys trip up in Lubbock

Week 11

Oklahoma (3-0) vs. Baylor: Baylor's high-flying attack overwhelms the Sooners defense, which to date has played teams whose offenses rank 71st, 89th and 105th in FBS.

Alabama (3-0) vs. LSU: The Tide haven't been as physically dominant as we've come to expect. LSU will expose that in Tuscaloosa, handing Alabama its first loss, perhaps late enough in the season that they won't be able to make up the ground in the polls.

Week 12

Northern Illinois (3-0) vs. Ball State. The Huskies make a run at another BCS bid, but ultimately trip up before the MAC title game.

Week 13

Baylor (3-0) at Oklahoma State: Baylor finally meets its match in Stillwater, coming up just two wins short of an unbeaten season.

Week 15

Fresno State (3-0) vs. Boise State (Mountain West Championship Game): It all sets up perfectly for the Broncos to take revenge in the inaugural MWC title game.

Won't lose

Louisville (4-0): Louisville gets through its AAC schedule but being one of three undefeateds at the end of the season (along with Oregon and Ohio State), the Cardinals are left out of the national championship game.

Ohio State (4-0): Reaches national championship game.

Oregon (3-0): Reaches national championship game

Agree? Disagree? Let us know on Twitter @TheFootballFour!

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