PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. — If.



It is a short, beguiling word. Trace its origins back far enough, through Old English and back to the Germanic and Scandinavian, and its derivation is likely connected to a noun meaning “doubt.”



If is intrinsically tied to doubt, and the fate of the 2018 Mets is intrinsically tied to if.



Few teams possess as much talent as New York. The Mets have six different players who have posted a season of at least four wins above replacement since 2015, according to Fangraphs. That’s one more than the Nationals, the same number as the Cubs and Dodgers, and behind only the retooled Giants in the National League.



The difference, of course, is the reliability of that type of production. San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles and Washington have players who have consistently continued four-win seasons. On the Mets, only Yoenis Cespedes has done it more than once in the last three seasons. The Nats' five players...