Let’s face it Giants fans, we love us some Barry Zito. Game 5 of the NLCS, Game 1 of the World Series, those were magical performances that will forever live in the hearts and minds of Giants fans everywhere. Things weren’t always so magical for Zito in the Orange and Black, which brings me to the aforementioned 18 million dollar question:

Should the Giants exercise the 18 million dollar option on Barry Zito’s contract for 2014?

Tough one, isn’t it? Let’s examine both sides of this very expensive coin.

Yes, Bring Back Barry

If you believe that bringing back Zito for $18 million is a good idea, you must first believe that he has turned the corner in accepting what kind of pitcher he is. Much in the same way Tim Lincecum needs to accept that he will probably never throw in the mid-90’s again, Zito seems to have finally come to terms with his lessened stuff and it shows.

In 2012, Zito posted his lowest BB% since 2004 (8.8%) as well as the lowest K% of his career (14.3%); 2011 not included as he only made nine starts that year. This shows a major shift in the way Zito is attacking hitters, throwing more strikes and allowing his defense to work for him.

Another major change for Zito, and one needed to be made, was a decreased dependency on the fastball. According to PITCHf/x, Zito threw fastballs 36.7% of the time in 2012, while his previous low was 47.7% in 2009. As a result, Zito has leaned on two pitches that barely existed for him pre-2012, the cutter and the slider, which combined he threw 32% of time with the cutter the more prevalent of the two (22.5%). When you consider that Zito’s average fastball velocity in 2012 was a Moyer-esque 83.7 mph, you can understand why he has opted to rely so heavily on pitches with added movement.

This new approach really began to crystallize about midway through last season and since June 25th of last year, Zito has only given up more than four earned runs in a regular season start once. That may not be the kind of stat that blows you away, but for a back-of-the-rotation starter in the big leagues, you can do a hell of a lot worse. Add in the fact that the Giants best pitching prospects (Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Chris Stratton) are all at least another season or two away from being even close to ready, then perhaps it would be a wise move for the Giants to bite the bullet for a season and bring Zito back. Then again…

No, It’s Time To Move On

That contract, oh that awful, awful contract. When the Giants signed Zito prior to the 2007 season, the money and the years seemed a tad high. Little did we know that the 7-year $126 million deal would become the benchmark for ridiculous contracts, and while his performance of late has served to take some of the sting out, there is no denying that the deal has been mostly a disaster.

Only once in the six seasons Zito has donned the Orange and Black has he been worth at least 2.0 WAR according to FanGraphs (2009), and last year he was only worth 0.9 WAR. That performance put him in the same rarefied air as pitching luminaries such as Jeremy Guthrie and Jeremy Hellickson, who combined made just under $8.7 million in 2012. Compare that to the $19 million the Giants deposited into Zito’s bank account last season and you can see the issue one might have with picking up his option for 2014.

Even if you believe the projections that have Zito being worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 WAR, that still does not justify the money he’s making this year and would be making in 2014. Bottom line, given the contracts given to Matt Cain and Buster Posey and with the impending free agency of Tim Lincecum (who could also be gone), it just doesn’t make a lot of sense financially to exercise Zito’s option.

How long before Zito’s current smoke-and-mirrors act catches up to him and the league readjusts to his new plan of attack? How would you feel about giving $18 million to a guy who is just as likely to be replacement-level or worse as he is to provide a win or two of value?

Obviously this is not a black and white issue and the goodwill built up by Zito’s stunning post-season performance in 2012 carries quite a bit of emotional weight with fans and the organization alike. But in much the same way bringing back a not-fully-healthy Brian Wilson was probably a good call, I can’t help but think doing the same with Zito might be way to go. Perhaps they can negotiate a more palatable one-year contract for 2014, which would be ideal, but if you’re Barry Zito and you have a $7 million buyout cushion to land on, why take the pay cut?

Like I said, after all these years and all the disappointment, Giants fans have finally fallen in love with Barry Zito. Whether or not that love is worth $18 million is a question Brian Sabean and company are going to have to answer sooner rather than later.