WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Ohioans who buy their own health insurance should see an average out-of-pocket savings on premiums of 21 percent because of taxpayer subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, according to a new study by the Rand Corp., a widely respected think tank.

Without the health care law, Ohioans who bought individual policies would pay $3,973, on average, in premiums in 2016, the study shows. But the subsidies, or tax credits, will bring the individuals’ costs down to $3,131.

These people will buy their insurance through a computerized marketplace, or “exchange,” where insurers will compete for business.

The study, done for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, covered ten states that together were considered representative of the nation. A number of its findings are likely to please supporters of the health care law, known widely as Obamacare.

But the study also somewhat supports a claim by Ohio Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, an Obamacare critic who leads the state Department of Insurance. Taylor said in early August that the Affordable Care Act will drive up premiums by an average of

. She based this on rates that insurers submitted to the state for policies to be sold on the exchange in 2014.

This was for the same kind of policies studied by Rand: those bought by individuals who don’t have employer-provided coverage and who in 2014 will buy their policies on the exchange.

Taylor’s figure did not account for buyer subsidies, nor for the wide variety of policies that are now available, some with deductibles of $10,000 and even $25,000, that will no longer be sold. Obamacare will require a change in coverage for many, with more exams and medical conditions covered, and will eliminate some of the high-deductible, bare-bones policies now sold and used in Taylor’s comparison.

Figures from the Rand study suggest that on price hikes, Taylor was correct in theory -- if excluding these key factors -- but that her numbers were off.

Without factoring in subsidy offsets and the policies that people are likely to buy, premiums for individual policies in Ohio will average $5,312 in 2016, according to figures from Rand. That’s 34 percent higher than the average for individual premiums without Obamacare, Rand’s figures show.

But that, too, is a high estimate that does not factor what kind of coverage people will actually buy on the exchange (there's a choice of four levels of coverage -- bronze, silver, gold and platinum), the actuarial value of that coverage and how age and tobacco use will play into premiums and choices. Insurers have had to weigh this for their rate-setting calculations.

Christine Eibner, a senior Rand economist and lead author of the study, told us in a telephone interview this afternoon that she considers this is a realistic way of comparing premiums. It compares premiums for coverage people will get on the exchange with coverage they have or would have had without Obamacare.

Based on that calculation, the average premium for individual policies in Ohio would rise by $900, or 22.65 percent. That's nearly half of Taylor’s unweighted calculation.

The price hike would be offset for many Ohioans by the taxpayer subsidy.

Either way, here’s how costs would break down on average in 2016 under the Rand analysis: The policy buyer would pay $3,131 in annual premiums. Another $2,181 would come from a tax credit, paid for by the act’s taxes, fees and offsets.

Tax credit eligibility will be determined by income, phasing out after 400 percent of the poverty level. Some 67 percent of exchange enrollees in Ohio will be eligible, Rand found. By 2016, 9.9 percent of Ohio's non-elderly population will be enrolled, the study estimated.



This is likely to boost business for insurers, Rand data suggest. Fifteen percent of non-elderly Ohioans are now uninsured, and that will go down to 6.2 percent by 2016, the study estimated.

Nearly 63 percent of those expected to enroll in Ohio would not have had insurance without the Affordable Care Act, Rand said.