President Han Kuo-yu and China: A Sure Thing?

With a nearly double-digit poll margin ahead of the runner up, Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu won the presidential primary of Taiwan’s opposition party, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to run in the 2020 Presidential Election. Han’s nomination has been officially approved by the KMT’s Central Standing Committee on July 18th.

Han’s rise as a populist in the KMT is a rare case in the history of KMT, in which party elites generally have strong family ties, a shiny educational background and extensive business networks. In contrast, Han was born in a middle-class family, and he had backed out from the political scene since 2001, until he was elected as the Mayor of Kaohsiung City.

His electoral strategy was also unconventional for the KMT; instead of putting out lengthy, formal manifestos, Han resorts to emotional elements by depicting himself as a visionary figure and expressing his determination to change the status quo. For instance, he described the industrial port city of Kaohsiung as “old and poor”, and promised that Kaohsiung will become the most wealthy city in Taiwan during his tenure, creating a place that youth born in Kaohsiung can feel secure to stay without having to migrate to the northern part of Taiwan for their careers.

Besides the grassroots connection with voters, China policy also played a pivotal role in his rise. In the local election campaign, Han proposed to build a stable relationship with China based on the 1992 Consensus to create business opportunities for Taiwanese goods to be exported to China, boosting Kaohsiung’s economy. His slogans successfully resonated with those who are pessimistic towards Taiwan’s stagnant economy, which they attribute to China refusing to deal with President Tsai Ing-wen.

China-friendly KMT supporters of all age groups also put their trust in Han to represent their values. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s pro-China media company, Want Want China Times Media Group, almost exclusively featured positive coverage of Han Kuo-yu.

Han’s successful electoral strategies, combined with his personal charisma and media support, eventually led to his victory in Kaohsiung. Due to the “Han-wave” across Taiwan, KMT won 15 municipalities out of 22 and gained almost 10% popular vote margin over DPP in the 2018 Taiwanese local elections.

Han’s China-friendly policies, tested

Even though the China factor has successfully propelled Han to the mayor’s office, it can act as a double-edged sword, making his road to the presidency challenging. The public has come to realize that Han’s media coverage is abnormally high—more that 50% of news covered by Want Want’s CTiTV channel had been Han’s news since the local election campaign in 2018. Journalists from China Times and CTiTV, both under Want Want China Times Media Group, admitted to the Financial Times that “their editorial managers take instructions directly from the Taiwan Affairs Office” in Beijing.

In addition to media support, a recent study indicates that Han’s campaign was supported by Chinese cyber groups, which drove the campaign’s momentum through spreading fake news and other media manipulation tactics. Despite the lack of evidence that Han has been colluding with Beijing to compromise Taiwan’s autonomy if elected, the public has been suspicious of China’s motive to support Han to this extent.

The Taiwanese people’s concern is not groundless; Wang Yang, the Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, urged cross-strait media “to promote the process of peaceful reunification of the motherland and strive to realize the China dream” in the Cross-Strait Media Summit, with approximately 70 Taiwan’s pro-China media executives in presence. In fear of China’s malicious influence on Taiwan, thousands of Taiwanese protested against pro-China media on June 23, with Want Want Group being the main target. The growing mistrust in “red media” might weaken the credibility of Han’s positive news covered by those media, slowing the momentum of Han’s presidential campaign.

Han’s pro-China stance also started to worry the public, especially the younger generation. During his tour to Hong Kong and Macau, Han visited the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government, the representative office of PRC, in both special administrative regions. Han’s action raised domestic concerns that he has been used by Beijing to endorse “One Country, Two Systems”, which has been implemented in Hong Kong and Macau.

Han, on his part, has stated that he objects to “One Country, Two Systems” and persistently supports the 1992 Consensus. However, according to Chinese President Xi Jingping’s speech on unification with Taiwan in January, the 1992 Consensus means “the two sides of the Strait belong to one China and will work together to seek national unification,” leaving no room for a different interpretation. Han’s adherence to 1992 Consensus might become his liability in the presidential campaign as Xi’s speech was given after the local election in 2018.

The public is also dissatisfied with Han’s lack of attentiveness to his mayoral duties. Shortly after the mayoral election, Han began holding rallies across the island. Han has been questioned on his commitment to his responsibilities as a mayor. For instance, in a City Council hearing, Han refused to give details about his proposal to establish a free economic pilot zone, but repeated his campaign slogan “get rich” like a broken record. The video of the hearing went viral on social media.

The public also has gradually realized that his platforms proposed during the campaign are not actionable, including extracting oil off the shores of Kaohsiung, and establishing a horse-racing course in Kaohsiung. In fact, he publicly acknowledged that only two of his platforms are achievable, and that most of what he said were “aspirational.” Series of rallies also have created tensions between Han and KMT elites who supported Han during the local election as they are also eager to run the presidential election. For instance, Eric Chu (former KMT Chairman and former New Taipei City Mayor) urged that candidates shouldn’t spend too much time on rallies and should avoid harming the trust and harmony within the party.

According to a recent poll by Taiwan Brain Trust, Han’s approval rate ranks fifth among Taiwan’s six special municipalities. This poll also indicates that Han might not have been elected if there were an election today. Meanwhile, citizens in Kaohsiung have also initiated a campaign to recall Han, due to his lack of attentiveness to his duties as a mayor. For instance, Han wasn’t fully attentive to the recent flood disaster and suffered a backlash from the public.

These are clear signals that Han’s public support has dropped dramatically since the local election. Beijing successfully used media to manipulate the public opinion and Han played the China card to win the local election. However, in the presidential election, Taiwanese citizens would scrutinize candidates’ China policy and relationship with Beijing, as any future president will be in control of Taiwan’s autonomy and sovereignty. Whether Han can leverage China or vice versa to win the presidency is too early to determine, but one thing’s for sure – the 2020 election is not a sure win for Han Kuo-yu, the KMT, and Beijing.