Bruce Schneier on the danger of worst-case thinking:

You can’t be too careful! Actually, you can. You can refuse to fly because of the possibility of plane crashes. You can lock your children in the house because of the possibility of child predators. You can eschew all contact with people because of the possibility of hurt.

He argues that we’re making bad decisions on the basis of what is possible rather than what is probable. Does anticipating disaster really make us safer? Are the costs worth it?

Schneier and I agree that one group certainly benefits from this kind of Black Swan doom-and-glooming: screenwriters.

Basically, any fear that would make a good movie plot is amenable to worst-case thinking.

When I’m waiting for a meeting, I’ll often wonder, “If Godzilla fell back into this building, knocking it over, would I climb ‘up’ or ‘down’ to get out?” That’s somewhat productive thinking for a screenwriter.

For a policy-maker, less so.