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The influential analysis from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington says the state has already passed through the worst of the planet’s first COVID-19 outbreak.

Monday, the institute’s model says, should represent the terrible heights of the crisis in Washington with 42 deaths reported.

The researchers say increased data — and the work of states like Washington to implement strict social distancing orders — have shifted the forecasts and support predictions for a reduced need for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators.

“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the institute said in an update on its new forecast. “And these projections are vital to health planners, policymakers, and anyone else associated with caring for those affected by and infected with the coronavirus.”

The group’s model now predicts around 700 deaths across Washington from the outbreak.

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CHS COVID-19 TIMELINE: + Feb. 29 First ‘presumptive positive’ COVID-19 case in King County + Mar. 11 Washington put ‘over 250’ restrictions in place + Mar. 11 Schools closed + Mar. 15 Restaurants and bars closed, ‘over 50’ threshold + Mar. 21 Police begin clearing parks + Apr. 2 Washington restrictions extended + Apr. 6 Schools closed for rest of year

CHS reported here on the initial forecasts from the researchers that showed just how close to maximum hospital capacity Washington could come and the importance of social distancing restrictions.

State totals have now reached more than 8,600 positive cases and 394 reported deaths in the outbreak. In King County, alone, there have been 230 deaths. But the recent trends are encouraging with both deaths and new cases showing signs of a slowing pandemic in the region. Meanwhile, the ZIP Codes covering Capitol Hill have tallied five deaths since the start of the outbreak.

Earlier this month, Washington extended its restrictions at least into early May. “The only way to return to our way of life and rebuild our economy in Washington is to defeat this virus,” Gov. Jay Inslee said. “That is why we must continue to stay home and stay healthy.” Washington schools, meanwhile, will remain in distance learning only mode for the rest of the school year.

Washington has now been under strict social distancing restrictions for 30 days.

In addition to a better outlook for its home state of Washington, IHME’s projections are now forecasting a reduced impact from the virus in the United States as a whole.

Across the country, not all state and local leaders are convinced the federal response is ready to help finish containment of the first wave of the virus:

Some state leaders have also grown increasingly concerned about how the federal government is using IHME’s lower estimates to deny states’ increasingly desperate requests for equipment and help in preparations. The stark differences between the IHME model and dozens of others being created by states exposes the glaring lack of national models provided publicly by the White House or agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for local leaders to use in planning or preparation.

Researchers say that social distancing restrictions remain key to containing the outbreak.

“Our estimates assume statewide social distancing measures are continuing in states where they have already been enacted, and for those states without such measures in place, it is assumed they will be will be in place within seven days,” Murray said. “If social distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the US will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow.”

UPDATE: Here are the King County graphs with Wednesday’s afternoon update. The county is now at 244 deaths through Tuesday midnight.

CHS COVID-19

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