The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

NBER Working Paper No. 24112

Issued in December 2017, Revised in May 2019

NBER Program(s):Asset Pricing, Development of the American Economy, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, International Finance and Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics



What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long-run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive dataset for all major asset classes, including housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new findings and puzzles.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24112

Published: Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298. citation courtesy of

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