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TO:

Flip the 49

th

! Neighbors in Action

FROM:

FM3 Research

RE:

49

th

California Congressional District Survey Results

DATE:

February 21, 2018

A recently conducted survey among

likely voters in California’s

49

th

Congressional District demonstrates that this seat offers an excellent opportunity for a strong Demo cratic candidate be elected in November. However, this survey also suggests that the current crowded field of candidates

–

Democrats and Republicans

–

presents a significant hurdle to achieving the goal of

“

flipping the 49

th

.

”

Pickup Opportunity

The mood of CD49 voters is highly negative towards Donald Trump and the Republican brand itself.

As

Figure 1

shows, nearly six in ten regard Trump unfavorably, and it should be noted that a majority (51%) holds

a “very”

unfavorable opinion of the president. Another indication of how this c oastal Southern California d istrict, which was historically the geographic base of the conservative movement in the state, has changed is that nearly half (47%) regard the California Republican Party unfavorably.

Figure 1: Favorability Ratings

Person/Organization Total Favorable Total Unfavorable

Can’t Rate/

Don’t Know

Donald Trump 41% 58% 1% The California Republican Party 41% 47% 12%

The generic Congressional ballot test shows the Democratic Party and its allies well-positioned for a victory in November.

Currently, the Democratic candidate hold s a seven-point lead ( 48%-41%) over a generic Republican candidate

(see Figure 2).

Further evidence of this advantage is the pre ference for a Democratic c andidate among those voters most interested in the midterm election

(“10” on a 1

-10 scale), moderates and non-partisan voters.

Figure 2: Generic Congressional Ballot Test

Vote Preference A

ll Voters

Election Interest Level of 10 Moderates Non-Partisan

Democratic Candidate 4

8%

51% 51% 62% Republican Candidate 4

1%

40% 34% 20%

Other/Don’t Know