Do good ATS teams make good NCAA bracket picks?

The Wichita State Shockers own a stellar 21-6-1 ATS record this season. Photo By - USA Today Sports

The Wichita State Shockers own a stellar 21-6-1 ATS record this season. Photo By - USA Today Sports

March Madness is one of the biggest events for sports bettors, whether it’s cashing in on a Cinderella team against the spread or correctly navigating your NCAA bracket pool. Those two things may go hand-in hand.



Can ATS success transition into a good tournament team? We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest NCAAB handicappers to see what a teams’ ATS record can tell us about their NCAA tournament potential.



ATS and the Final Four



It's safe to say that when it comes to filling out your Final Four you should feel comfortable picking schools with strong ATS records.



Ten of the last 12 programs to make the Final Four have had ATS records of .500 or better that season. Only Kentucky (16-22 ATS) in 2012 and VCU (18-21 ATS) in 2011 have had losing records against the spread and made a run to the Final Four.



With that in mind, top teams - and top breadwinners - like Wichita State (21-6-1 ATS), Villanova (19-8 ATS), Southern Methodist (17-8 ATS), and Virginia (16-9-1 ATS) could all be smart picks to go deep in the tournament this year.



ATS record on the road



While a terrific ATS record isn’t always a clear indicator of just how well a team will do come tourney time, breaking down that success against the spread may give hints of how tough a program is when faced with adversity. Looking at the ATS record on the road can give you an idea of a team's resolve.



"I am very interested in a team's ATS record away from home against quality foes - say, teams that made the Big Dance or even teams that made the Big Dance or NIT, CIT or CBI,” says Teddy Covers. "Teams with good ATS records in that particular subset are most assuredly teams I'd be looking to pick in my bracket as well."



This year's road ATS kings with chances of going deep in the tournament include Michigan State (8-2 ATS), Wichita State (11-1 ATS), and New Mexico (6-2 ATS).



Overrated/Underrated ATS teams



Sometimes a bad ATS record can be just as informative as a good one when penciling in your bracket picks. Chasing trends and hot streaks come March Madness can often lead basketball fans in the wrong direction.



Covers' Expert Steve Merril treats the regular and postseason as two separate entities and believes that you can find some sleeper tournament teams amongst those that fell short of the oddsmakers’ expectations during conference play. These programs are usually good enough to make the cut Selection Sunday and view the tournament as a “new season”. In fact, Merril sees great opportunity to bet against teams on long ATS streaks during March Madness.



"If anything, I would look to play against teams with good ATS records as they have probably become a bit overrated, especially from a handicapping perspective," he says. "In fact, teams on a 3-0 SU and ATS run have been a long-term losing play in the NCAA tournament."



Whichever way you look at it, ATS records can be a significant part of the evaluation process when filling out your NCAA bracket. If you can find the right trends at the right time, you may just get an edge on your opponents in your bracket pool and avoid the upset at the sportsbook.