Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi gave his “sincere and brutal” assessment of the debate over Brexit, and it doesn’t look good for Brits.

“The consequences will be worse for English citizens than for European citizens in the sense that if the UK leaves Europe the main problem will be for the UK, for its companies and entrepreneurs, for its citizens,” Renzi said at a press conference at the foreign press centre.

“That’s why I am convinced that in the end common sense will prevail, because it’s not just right for the UK to remain in Europe, it’s useful especially for them.”

But Renzi is under no illusion that the campaign will be an easy one for David Cameron.

“The referendum won’t be a “passeggiata’ [walk in the park] for anyone,” Renzi said.

While Renzi insisted that the deal reached late on Friday was a “good compromise for all”, he said citizens were not about to vote on technical matters. Rather, it was a philosophical question about whether “Europe is still attractive or not”.

“We know that this element of appeal in the UK has always been challenged there more than elsewhere ... it will be a very difficult campaign,” Renzi said.

“David is a great organiser of electoral campaigns so I send him a gigantic wish of good luck – but it’s natural and logical that the [game] will be played within English public opinion. I don’t think I am in condition to make a forecast but I hope [Cameron] wins,” he said.