Philip Hammond is toast – and Boris will follow soon after If the narrowing opinion polls do turn out to be cobblers, and Theresa May wins a healthy majority next Thursday, […]

If the narrowing opinion polls do turn out to be cobblers, and Theresa May wins a healthy majority next Thursday, Philip Hammond will not be the only major Cabinet minister fired.

The Chancellor is toast.

March’s national insurance U-turn, which enraged so many self-employed, might have been enough to guarantee his invitation to take a concrete bath.

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The episode which really angered the Prime Minister and her senior aides, though, came six weeks ago.

Tax lock

During a trip to Washington, Mr Hammond hinted he wanted to scrap the Conservative Party’s promised “tax lock” – which outlaws rises in income tax, NI and VAT – because it prevented the government of the day from being able to “manage the economy flexibly”.

A sound economic argument, but politically dangerous for a top Tory, especially when campaign chiefs like Lynton Crosby want to depict Labour as tax junkies.

So as this hand grenade rolled through the press office at No 10, aides drew their own conclusions about the Chancellor’s reliability.

Boris Johnson will be harder for Mrs May to get rid of.

Don’t doubt her desire to do so. Or his desire to eventually succeed her.

Locking Boris out

There were many potential upsides to calling an early election – and locking Boris out of Downing Street a bit longer was one of them.

Team May still sees him as a threat. With his hands and tongue tied, the Foreign Secretary, they suppose, will eventually get bored and buzz off. Perhaps he could edit a national newspaper. Although he is not the political mayfly they imagine.

The larger the majority, the less she needs to stick with established figures like Mr Hammond.

A whopper of a landslide would allow her to cast the Cabinet in her own image. (Hello, Amber.) As pollsters downgrade that scenario, Team May must contemplate moving more cautiously.

Twitter: @olyduff