Cool have a good day. I suspect interesting things are going to happen in the markets.

Anon (user@email.com)

if yes let me know in advance to rebalance my coins...

Are you holding BTC?

55 mins

Anon (user@email.com)

still some

should I sell?

That's for you to decide

Something I figured out you should be ware of though

Anon (user@email.com)

so what is the news?

https://fork.lol/

See the graph of difficulty adjustments between BCH and BTC?

note that BTC difficulty adjustment is about once every two weeks (actually 2016 blocks)

and the old BCH difficulty adjustment would oscillate wildly and pull hash rate away from BTC for a stretch and then have nothing when BTC would have it all

Anon (user@email.com)

bch less difficulty?

right but that's not the point

so there was a BCH hard for about three hours ago

and what they did was change the difficulty adjustment algorithm so that it doesn't do that wild oscillation anymore

it just focuses on keeping a 10 minute block time.

that's all it cares about.

ok so does everything described so far make sense?

Anon (user@email.com)

all L3 finally running...

mey be even gonna trust it when I am not at home... will see after few days..

cool

this gets pretty complex so I want to make sure you understand the basic way the difficulty adjustment works before we go furhter

Anon (user@email.com)

yes it make sense... conclusion? (not seeing it yet)

the things to gasp are 1) BTC retargets difficulty once every 2016 blocks (approximately two weeks) to maintain a 10 minute block time

and 2) BCH retargets difficulty once every 10 minutes to maintain a 10 minute block time

OK

So

What actually dictates how long each block takes to create is the amount of proof of work hashing each chain.

And you now as someone very familiar with mining should understand well how this part works. What do we mine? The chain with the highest immediate profitability, right?

Anon (user@email.com)

yep

OK

So war game this scenario with me

What happens if the price of BCH spikes right now by any signficant amount, or the price of BTC dips right now by any signficant amount?

Anon (user@email.com)

script on catching the difficulty changes? few minutes before everybody else swithc?

in terms of the influence on the profitability of either chain?

Anon (user@email.com)

eveybody needs to switch quickly... so we can buy hash rate contract when it is cheap as you asid before...

right?

no no it's not about a business strategy for us

think bigger.

What are the actual effects on the block times when that happens?

Imagine BTC price dips by 10%

what happens to the 10 minute block time for BTC?

Anon (user@email.com)

hey... are you thinking about what I thought yesterday?

I don't know what you were thinking about yesterday?

Anon (user@email.com)

i was thinking about creathing BALANCED COIN... coin which buys automatically BTCH +BCH... therefore users buy only BCB (Bitcoin Balanced) and make profit on steady rise of the market... not on stupid decisions which coin to switch to (and human mistakes)

Nope

this is nothing about our business strategy of anything of that nature

think bigger, like entire industry scal

just work with me here and we'll step throughi t

Anon (user@email.com)

ok... eenlighten me (btw do you think BCB would make sense?)

BTC price dips by 10%, what happens to the 10 minute block time for Bitcoin?

Anon (user@email.com)

ok... waiting for eplanation

gradually less hash power... right?

Why gradually?

Anon (user@email.com)

until it balances,,,

Remember how we work?

We're miners

we want immediate profitability

Anon (user@email.com)

ok.. immediate

that's our rational self interest right

So if BTC price drops by 10% then the miners just start hashing BCH instead

but lets be charitable and assume it's a smooth decline which is the best case for BTC

Anon (user@email.com)

I mean that everybody sqitches gradually... as it takes some time... no? for everybody react around the world

even *then* that means blocks come out at 10% slower

so what was initially a blockchain speed of 1mb / 10 minutes

is now 1mb / 10 minutes * 1.1

10 % decrease in transaction throughput

Anon (user@email.com)

eh...

Get it?

Anon (user@email.com)

transactions gets stucked..

Right

And what does the market price do when that happens?

Anon (user@email.com)

yep, goes down...

And what does the profitability do in response when the market price goes down ?

Anon (user@email.com)

so script to react on it before everybody else...

No no no

Anon (user@email.com)

hahaha...

assume that's all already perfect

it doesn't matter.

Anon (user@email.com)

also gos down?

Right.

10% drop in price = drop in miner hash rate

drop in miner hashrate = drop in transaction throughput

drop in transaction throughput = drop in price

drop in price = drop in miner hash rate

See the loop?

Anon (user@email.com)

so you predict at some moment the lop will be irreversible...

when?

like today?

If I'm right

Any time after now.

any signficant BTC price dip would trigger it.

hell even just a significant BCH price rise would trigger it.

Anon (user@email.com)

ok got it... probably moving btc out...

but it depends on new money right?

No..

Anon (user@email.com)

every day now new 2B usd...

Because remember the first thing that we covered

Anon (user@email.com)

saved the loop from happening

not?

BCH has a difficulty adjustment algorithm that adjusts every ten minutes.

Even if BTC keeps rising in price, that's ok for BCH

because it re-adjusts every block

But if BTC dips, or BCH rises...

BTC dies.

you see?

Anon (user@email.com)

I see...

and BTC won't be able to react for at least two weeks

Anon (user@email.com)

what can stop that from happen?

2016 blocks

*and worse*

if blocks aren't ten minutes,, 2016 blocks aren't two weeks.

so if the chain death spiral starts and blocks go to a year...

It's just dead

gone

finished

kaput.

Anon (user@email.com)

nice... so rather different question... how can we help make that happen?

Let's answer the first question first.

Anon (user@email.com)

writting white paper and sending it to everybody around the world ☺

What can stop that from happen

Nothing short of a software upgrade of the bitcoin core software

which the bitcoin core team has been terrible about doing with any kind of speed whatsoever reaction wise.

so... that's... really bad

it suggests the answer is maybe nothing can stop that from happening

To answer the other question

*We* don't make that happen.

people moving the market make that happen

I can't be the only guy on earth to have done the mathematics and figures out the above right?

smart money has to be aware of it.

So if you had hundreds of millions worth of BTC or BCH, and you knew spiking BCH or dipping BTC was throwing a lit match into jet fuel..

what would you do?

Anon (user@email.com)

]sure try to be first to move the assets (first silently and than faster...)

You mean like what happened a day or so ago?

You see where I'm going with this?

The smart money already knows.

Anon (user@email.com)

yes... on sunday it was visible...

Right

but the difficulty adjustment wasn't live then

so they couldn't go for the kill shot

Now though? Throw that match and it's game over.

Anon (user@email.com)

I see...

so what can we do to make it happen?

Like I said

we don't need to do a thing

just wait for the match.

(and don't be in the jet fuel)

Anon (user@email.com)

that nots fun... are we able to make a press release and write everything in a paper within few hours? i got translated it and lets send it to all bitcoin emails around the world.... lets be the match... this is the right PR... ☺

*shrug* Up to you on that front, but you know I don't like publicity so please not my name or anything.

And there's always thepossibility I'm wrong and I'm missing something here.

It's not guaranteed that I'm right

Anon (user@email.com)

I can have **** to send the news to all CEOs in **** ☺ that would be the match... they wills tart doubt and thats it...

I just think I am and wanted to share it with you.

Ok... well if you wanted to play it like that then you would want to be out of BTC and in ETH BCH basically

maybe even trade either of those assets on margin and simultaneously short BTC into the dirt

if you want to be really aggressive about it.

Anon (user@email.com)

I can back it by my name and ****... the press release... you can stay hidden...

Cool with me.

Maybe just throw it at **** and see if he can find a flaw in it

if he can't.. and you can't

and I can't

Anon (user@email.com)

we still need some bitcoin specialist to back it...

and we have an explanation for that billions in turnover from market yesterday

it's probably right.

Anon (user@email.com)

like put omore names on our white paper...

there's no bitcoin specialist I can think of who would want to touch that with a ten foot pole that probably doesn't already know

I would bet that Roger Ver is on top of it.

in fact I know he moved a ton of coins to exchanges recently.

Anon (user@email.com)

can we somehow ger proves about big bitcoin movements?

to put that also to whitepaper?

https://blockchain.info/tx/6ba0e3732c71b04a66a739a20f6a4bdbaa8588c6d34d0be0e1bdb2de0c46c376

https://vote.bitcoin.com/addresses/16cou7Ht6WjTzuFyDBnht9hmvXytg6XdVT

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html