Mr Swire has so far been politically impregnable in his East Devon seat, which he first won in 2001 with a majority of 8,200 votes, going on to build it up to 9,114 in 2010. Conservative pundit Iain Dale expects him to win an increased majority next week, pointing out the "big Lib Dem vote to splinter". In a remarkable display of confidence, Mr Swire wrote to his local newspaper to stress that his East Devon seat should be classified as safe, not a marginal. But the bookies aren't so sure, and as they say in politics, it's good to follow the money.