As Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses take place Monday, 2020 Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders is leading in polls focused on the Hawkeye State, but former Vice President Joe Biden isn’t far behind.

Sanders, the Vermont senator, gets 23.0% support in a RealClearPolitics moving average of Iowa polls as of Monday, followed by Biden at 19.3%, then former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 16.8%, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 15.5% and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 9.0%. No other contender is above 4%.

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The No. 1 spot in the average of Iowa polls has switched among the top four candidates over the past three months, with Biden ranked first in mid-January, Buttigieg above the rest in December, and Warren leading the field in early November. In an unusual twist for the Iowa surveys, the pollsters for the Des Moines Register/CNN poll didn’t release their last update over the weekend because a candidate’s name (reportedly Buttigieg’s) was omitted in at least one interview.

The first voter verdicts in the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential primary are slated to come late Monday or early Tuesday as the results of the Iowa caucuses are revealed, then New Hampshire voters get their turn on Feb. 11.

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Bernie Sanders has the lead in Iowa polling.

In the RealClearPolitics moving average of national polls as of Monday, Biden leads with 27.2% support, followed by Sanders at 23.5%, Warren at 15.0%, billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 8.0% and Buttigieg at 6.7%. No other contender is above 5%.

But Sanders is No. 1 in the RealClearPolitics moving average of New Hampshire polls, with 26.5% support. Biden gets 17.5%, Warren draws 14.3% and Buttigieg is at 13.7%, while Klobuchar gets 6.7% and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, 5.2%. No other contender is above 5%.

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While Sanders is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire polling, analysts at Capital Alpha Partners said in a recent note that they “see Biden’s hand emerging stronger” in part because Sanders has been among the senators forced to spend time in Washington, D.C., due to President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial in the Senate.

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“Assume that Biden edges out Sanders and wins the Iowa Caucus,” the Capital Alpha analysts wrote. “The better his margin, the more inevitability is on his side. After easy wins in South Carolina (on Feb 29) and perhaps even Nevada (Feb 23), Biden will cruise into the multistate primaries in March (front-loaded with southern states voting on Super Tuesday, March 3) as the clear front-runner and presumptive nominee. Investors will perceive Sanders and Warren as tail risk at that point, while Biden is a nominee they can be comfortable with — for now.”

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Investors SPX, -2.21% will “likely breathe a sigh of relief” if Biden wins in Iowa, said Height Capital Markets analysts in a note. The analysts described Sanders and Warren as part of the Democratic Party’s “populist/progressive wing,” while Biden is aiming to “carry the moderate wing’s banner through the fight.”

This is an updated version of a report first published on Jan. 30, 2020.