Poll: Barry, Fox in dead heat in mayoral runoff

Megan Barry and David Fox are in a statistical dead heat one week out from Nashville's mayoral runoff election, according to a new independent poll conducted for The Tennessean that shows a strikingly partisan contest like many expected.

A survey taken this week by Public Policy Polling found Barry the choice of 46 percent of likely Nashville voters if the race were held today, compared with 45 percent who said they would vote for Fox. Ten percent of respondents said they are still undecided. (Note: Results may not total 100% due to rounding.)

The poll, a phone survey of 858 likely Metro voters taken on Aug. 31 and Sept. 1, marks the first traditional third-party poll released at any point during Nashville's yearlong mayoral race. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

"It's obviously close and it's partisan," said Jim Williams, polling analyst for Raleigh, N.C.-based Public Policy Polling, a firm that tends to work for Democratic clients nationally. "It's going to come down to turnout and whose supporters are going to turn out in a stronger way."

The runoff election is Sept. 10. Early voting began Aug. 21 and concludes Saturday.

The poll results, which include strong favorable ratings for both candidates, reflect the partisan dynamics that emerged from the outset of the five-week runoff election between Barry, a two-term Metro councilwoman, and Fox, former chairman of the Metro school board.

Barry, popular among liberals and progressives, has support of 74 percent of voters who identified as Democrats, the poll found, while Fox has the backing of 15 percent of Democrats. Fox, who has campaigned hard on fiscal conservatism, holds a strong edge among Republican voters, with 88 percent saying they support Fox compared with just 9 percent for Barry.

In the poll, Fox makes up the difference in Democratic-leaning Davidson County with much stronger support among independents. The poll found that 56 percent of independents said they would vote for Fox if the election were held today, while 32 percent said they would vote for Barry.

But Barry could have an advantage with the 10 percent of undecided voters, according to the pollster. That's because 54 percent of the undecided voters identified as Democrats, compared with just 9 percent who said they are Republicans.

"There's some clues in there that (undecided voters) could be more friendly toward Barry," Williams said. "The question is, will they actually turn out?"

Some political observers have considered Barry a slight front-runner given her base of Democratic supporters in a city that historically elects Democrats, including for the nonpartisan mayor's office. She secured the race's highest-profile endorsement from former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, a political moderate. She's also garnered backing from several top allies of outgoing Mayor Karl Dean.

“We’re taking nothing for granted in this election, and Megan is out every day trying to earn the votes of Nashvillians while David Fox and his Texas tea party consultants are spending their time attacking Megan’s faith and family," Barry campaign spokesman Sean Braisted said in a statement. "Ultimately, we believe the people of Nashville will see past Fox’s personal attacks and instead vote for the candidate who will keep Nashville moving forward.”

The Fox campaign, whose core base consists of conservatives, Republicans and the suburban parts of the county, glowed about the poll results.

“We’re so pleased with this and gratified and appreciative of the voters,” Fox campaign manager Chris Turner said in a statement. “This validates everything we’ve been saying and kind of refutes everything the Barry camp has been putting out there. They’ve actually been telling people they’re up by 20 points — just to try to influence donors to support her and to suppress our vote. We’ve given the facts every step of the way. No games. We’ve said it’s a dead-heat at this point and this poll shows that it is.

“The good news for David is that the turnout has been strongest in areas that are strongest for him. So these results, coupled with the actual turnout so far, means David’s in the driver's seat.”

The poll also comes at a time when the race for African-American votes heats up. A Fox radio ad, which is targeting African-American voters, uses blog writings of Barry's husband to cast the couple as anti-Christian. Meanwhile, Barry recently received the endorsement of Howard Gentry, the lone African-American candidate in the Aug. 6 election.

Neither Barry nor Fox had strong showings among black voters Aug. 6. The new poll shows Barry beating Fox among black voters 68 percent to 13 percent. Nearly half of the undecided voters — 48 percent — are African-American, the poll found.

The poll shows Barry with overwhelming support among Nashvillians who voted last month for Gentry, who were primarily black voters. Barry also holds a clear edge among Nashvillians who supported third-place finisher Bill Freeman and a smaller edge among those who backed Charles Robert Bone. Gentry and Bone have endorsed Barry, while Freeman has stayed neutral.

Fox, according to the poll, is winning big among Nashvillians who voted last month for Linda Eskind Rebrovick and Jeremy Kane, both of whom attracted Republican supporters. Kane has endorsed Fox.

The new Tennessean poll comes after the only surveys made public ahead of the general election came from internal polls leaked by one of the campaigns or special interest groups.

“We felt that having an independent poll of the Nashville mayoral election by a respected organization like Public Policy Polling would be valuable to the public at this moment, just prior to election day,” Tennessean President and Publisher Laura Hollingsworth said.

“It certainly affirms the value of every vote," she said of the poll's results. “It also shows some opportunity yet for the candidates.”

The survey found that Barry is ahead of Fox by a 56 percent to 41 percent among Nashvillians who have already voted early. The reason for the wide margin could be because until last Thursday, the only early voting site was the Howard Office Building, which is closer to Barry's strongholds.

The poll found Fox with 45 percent of support among voters who said they plan to vote early before Saturday, compared with 42 percent for Barry. It found Fox up 51 percent to 41 percent among voters who say they will vote on election day.

Barry is winning among women voters by 50 percent to 41 percent, the poll found, while Fox is leading among men 48 percent to 41 percent. The poll found Fox up among white voters, 56 percent to 39 percent, and up among Hispanic voters, 47 percent to 30 percent.

The pollster called the mayoral runoff "an unusual race" because it found Barry and Fox are well liked. The poll found that 49 percent of likely voters have favorable opinions of Barry and 42 percent have unfavorable opinions of her. Fox is viewed favorably by 48 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 39 percent.

Results suggest a strong divide among loyalists — 89 percent of Fox supporters said they have unfavorable opinions of Barry; 76 percent of Barry supporters said they have unfavorable opinions of Fox.

Seventy-seven percent of Democrats view Barry favorably, and 14 percent view her unfavorably. Twenty-three percent of Democrats said they have favorable opinions of Fox, compared with 61 percent of Democrats who do not.

Eighty-seven percent of Republicans said they view Fox favorably, compared with 8 percent who do not. Just 11 percent of Republicans said they view Barry favorably compared with 82 percent who do not.

Meanwhile, poll respondents named education and traffic as Nashville's most pressing issues. Education came in at 28 percent on that question; traffic, 23 percent; public safety, 15 percent; affordable housing, 13 percent; sidewalks and infrastructure, 7 percent; public health, 2 percent. Eleven percent of respondents gave other responses.

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.