Obama won 57 percent of the key group in 2008. Obama leads among 'swing' indies

Independents like President Barack Obama better but feel ideologically closer to Mitt Romney, according to a new poll of a dozen battleground states released Monday.

The survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group for the moderate Democratic think tank Third Way, homed in on the attitudes of “swing independents” who express views of Romney or Obama that are neither strongly favorable nor unfavorable.


The majority of those who call themselves politically independent typically lean toward one major party or the other, but about 15 percent of the total electorate (roughly 40 percent of independents) are thought to authentically swing between parties.

Obama won 57 percent of this group in 2008. In this poll, which took place in mid-March, he led Romney 44 percent to 38 percent.

Yet when asked to assign a number on a scale of one to nine (one being liberal, nine being conservative and five being moderate), the swing independents put themselves at an average of 5.2 — slightly right of center — ranking Romney at 6.1 and Obama at 3.9.

“There’s definitely some good news for Obama. It’s not shocking to any of us that he’s very likable … Romney’s ideology is much closer to where they see themselves, but the likability factor isn’t there for him,” said Lanae Erickson, the deputy director of Third Way’s social policy and politics program, who has written a 12-page memo on the results.

Obama is viewed favorably by 57 percent. Only 41 percent of the swing independents said the same for Romney.

As the general election unofficially begins, the Obama reelection campaign’s dual challenge is to convince these voters that Romney is more conservative than they think and that Obama is ideologically closer to them than they realize.

Despite bragging about his “severely conservative” record to primary voters, Romney is still perceived as significantly more moderate than congressional Republicans — to whom the swing voters assigned a 6.8 on the 1-to-9 scale. Congressional Democrats, meanwhile, are seen as essentially identical ideologically to the president. On the generic ballot, Republicans led Democrats 39 percent to 34 percent among independents overall.

The backdrop of the poll is a decades-old debate among Democrats about messaging and an even longer-term battle between those who prioritize growth and ‘opportunity’ against those who prioritize redistribution and ‘fairness.’ The ‘fairness’ school of thought is more attractive to the party base; the ‘opportunity’ message speaks to what some pollsters and strategists consider the vital center.

Third Way, solidly in the latter camp, points to several data points that they say demonstrate Democratic candidates generally (including the president) are better off framing their plans as designed to create future opportunity rather than make the present system fairer.

In the poll, the greatest fears are about the future: Fifty-nine percent of swing independents are strongly confident they will be able to pay all their bills over the next 12 months, but only eight percent are strongly confident that the next generation of Americans will be able to find good, well-paying jobs.

“The worldview of independents differs from a lot of people in the Democratic establishment. They really don’t think the system is stacked against them,” said Erickson. “Messages that are aimed at people who feel like victims in a rigged system or are struggling day by day just to get by don’t resonate. Independents don’t think you’re talking about them.”

Independents strongly reject the idea that they are victims. About 60 percent of swing independents say America is divided between haves and have-nots, but a nearly identical number believe the American system is basically fair and that the deck is not stacked against them. Sixty-two percent say they’re “doing better than the average American.”

“A fairness message may appeal to the base, but independents think it’s strange to hear a fairness message coming out of Washington, which they perceive as the reason that things are unfair,” said Third Way co-founder Jim Kessler, who oversees the policy division.

The poll of 1,000 self-identified independents who voted in the 2008 presidential election was conducted March 8-18 in 12 states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The margin of error for the full set of independents is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. For the smaller subset of swing independents, the margin of error is 5.1 percentage points. Because African-Americans and Latinos overwhelmingly vote Democrat, the sample of swing independents is 83 percent white.

On each of the eight topics, half the voters were asked what they are angry about and the other half were asked what they are anxious about.

The independents were angriest about congressional gridlock, the national debt and Wall Street bailouts — in that order. But a higher percentage said they were “worried” about the next generation’s ability to achieve the American Dream and America falling behind its global competitors than Wall Street bailouts.

“Democrats have been focused on anger and trying to show they’re just as angry,” said Kessler, a longtime former legislative and policy director for New York Sen. Chuck Schumer. “What they’re really worried about is the country slipping. They’re not sure their family is going to reach the heights they expected. They’re relatively sure China will have the world’s leading economy in 15 years. They’re looking for someone to answer that.”

The economy overwhelmingly remains the issue of greatest concern. As to whom they trust on the economy overall, Republicans are in a statistical tie, 41 percent to 40 percent, with the president among swing independents. The GOP has a 46 percent to 32 percent edge on the deficit and a 51-29 advantage on handling government spending. Obama has opened a 6 percentage-point edge on taxes — 44 percent to 38 percent — historically a key Republican strength.

Presented with three options to strengthen the economy, 42 percent said reducing the deficit is the most effective approach and 28 percent picked reducing regulations and taxes on business. Just 22 percent chose reducing income inequality.

In surveys and focus groups, Third Way has consistently found that independents in the battlegrounds see “fairness” differently than elites inside the Beltway. Asked what was “the most fair” of three options, 36 percent of swing independents said making the wealthy pay higher taxes, 33 percent said making everyone pay a flat tax and 27 percent said it would be fairest to make everyone (no matter how little they earned) pay something in taxes.

Asked whether fixing the budget deficit or reducing the income gap is more important, swing independents preferred the former 57 percent to 38 percent. Even emphasizing that the focus on income inequality is “to help the middle class” did little to move to the needle in the poll.

Obama included themes of opportunity and fairness in his January State of the Union, and his stump speech tries to fuse the two.

Erickson argues that independents believe Obama is far more likely to talk about making society fairer. In the poll, independents were read two paragraph-long statements. About two-thirds said Obama was more likely to say “a fairer economy is a stronger economy” than “more opportunity means a stronger economy.”

“They’re only hearing the thing that confirms what they already think,” she said. “He really needs to pivot and make sure that he’s focused on the opportunity message much, much more than the fairness message if he’s going to get it heard by these folks.”

Correction: A previous version of this story stated that Republicans led Democrats 39 percent to 35 percent among the swing independents. They lead Democrats 39 percent to 34 percent among independents overall.

CORRECTION: Corrected by: Vivyan Tran @ 04/09/2012 10:00 AM Correction: A previous version of this story stated that Republicans led Democrats 39 percent to 35 percent among the swing independents on the generic ballot. They lead Democrats 39 percent to 34 percent among independents overall.