Photo: Getty

The Conservatives have inadvertently leaked that they are not targeting 102 constituencies in the forthcoming general election.

The information was revealed after the web address of some of the party’s parliamentary candidates was shown to contain the code “Non%20target%20candidates”. A list of these candidates with this tag was then compiled by Richard Taylor here, before this error was corrected by the party.

We now know which constituencies the party are putting no resources into. Most of the list is unsurprising. It shows the Tories aren’t putting any effort into winning in long-standing Labour seats like West Ham, which Labour won by 48 points in 2010 and May2015 predicts it will win by more than 55 in 2015.

The findings are most interesting for what they suggest about the wider Tory campaign.

But the list is interesting for two reasons. First, it confirms that the party thinks it has no chance of winning seats that Labour won narrowly in 2010, like Birmingham Edgbaston and Walsall North. Labour won these two seats by less than 1,600 and 1,000 votes in 2010, but the Tories have given up on them.

It makes sense that they would: Ashcroft’s polls show the Tories are unlikely to win more than one or two Labour-held seats in May. They need to focus on winning Lib Dem seats and defending their seats from Labour. But we haven’t known they agreed until now.

This leak confirms what we have argued since launching in September: the Tories cannot win a majority – and are not trying to.

Yet the most interesting finding from the leak is how it shows the Tories aren’t competing in five potential marginals. These are:

Dudley South and Ribble South, which the party won by 10.1 and 10.8 points in 2010 but are projected to retain by just 0.6 and 1.2 points in May (holding off Labour). The party seems to be assuming it will win these seats easily.

Cannock Chase, which the Tories carried by 7 points in 2010 but May2015 forecasts they will lose to Labour by 3.4 per cent in May (Lord Ashcroft put Labour ahead by 2 in his poll of the seat in November). It’s unclear if the party is confident of retaining this seat or has already given up on it.

Rochester & Strood, which the Tories lost when Mark Reckless defected to Ukip in September. The Tories only lost the subsequent by-election by 7 points in November, and polls at the time suggested they could win the seat back in the general election, but the party seems to have already abandoned the seat.

Boston & Skegness, which the party is projected by May2015 to hold comfortably in May after winning easily in 2010, but which the bookies suggest will go Ukip in May.

The findings are most interesting for what they suggest about the wider Tory campaign. The party seems to have given up on contesting Ukip-friendly seats like Rochester and Boston & Skegness.

The party seems to have given up on contesting Ukip-friendly seats like Rochester and Boston & Skegness.

Does that mean have they also conceded Thurrock and Thanet South, a pair of three-way marginals which Ukip are trying to win?

It also suggests the Tories are confident of holding onto seats at the far end of Labour’s target list: the ones the Tories won by 8-11 points in 2010 and Labour will need to win for an overall majority.

In December Ashcroft suggested these seats are more likely to stay Tory than swing to Labour, but for the Tories to not even be targeting such seats may end up appearing complacent.