rpietila

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DonatorLegendaryActivity: 1722Merit: 1016 Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner October 22, 2013, 06:30:06 PM

Last edit: April 22, 2014, 12:35:17 PM by rpietila #1 TL;DR: As a result of analyzing the "Mt.Gox leak", the number of bitcoin holders is likely 1.0 millions. Of these,

* the 400 bitcoin millionaires with at least BTC 2,000 hold 40% of bitcoins.

* 100,000 owners with BTC 10- BTC 2,000 ($5,000-$1,000,000) hold 50% of the bitcoins.

* 900,000 owners have a holding of BTC 0.002- BTC 10, valued at $1-$5,000, and hold 10% of the bitcoins



This is NOT a largest addresses/wallets -list, we are talking about largest owners here. An owner can have many wallets, and a wallet can have many addresses.







22. Apr 2014



#People #Bitcoins #TotalBitcoins 70 BTC 10k+ 3.6M 930 BTC 1k-10k 2.2M 13k BTC 100-1k 3.0M 85k BTC 10-100 2.3M 250k BTC 1-10 0.8M 340k BTC 0.1-1 0.1M 230k BTC 0.01-0.1 0.0M 90k BTC 0.002-0.01 0.0M

Total: 12.2M bitcoins (0.5M bitcoins assumed lost)



The changes from previous estimate:



- Total number of holders revised down from 2.0 million to 1.0 million. This did not change much in the distribution of coins. If new users are added, the large holders do sell according to an experimentally derived rate of 17% per doubling in price, but some newish holders also add to their positions. All-new entrants can come to any bracket, because no amount of coins is yet too expensive to buy. The perceived static totals of the analysis hide the fact that Bitcoin trade is quite brisk and the people who consist of a bracket do change all the time.



- Number of 10k+ holders recalculated because we now know better the average number of coins in each bracket (thanks to Mt.Gox data). So the large holders still have the same number of coins in total, but there appears to be more of the holders.



- Same for 1k+ and 100+. More people but approx the same number of total coins.



- 10+ category turned out to be larger than previously estimated. The Mt.Gox data gave us the confidence to use a steeper j parameter, which means a more "equitable" distribution with more coins in the middle brackets.



- 1+ category remained intact, and the fractional categories were significantly sized down. The lower threshold of "owner" was also raised to BTC 0.002 because of the decline in price.



- Number of Bitcoin millionaires at this price ($500) is about 400. This means that only 400 people worldwide can raise a $million by selling bitcoins, but about 30,000,000 people can invest a $million to buy bitcoins (without going into debt).



- The Bitcoin millionaires command about 4.9 million bitcoins, which is 40% of all bitcoins. The control of world's gold and fiat currency is more centralized with a smaller number of individuals controlling higher percentage.









Earlier estimate of 27. Jan 2014



#People #Bitcoins #TotalBitcoins 46 BTC 10k+ 3.6M 820 BTC 1k-10k 2.4M 10k BTC 100-1k 2.8M 68k BTC 10-100 2.0M 250k BTC 1-10 0.8M 550k BTC 0.1-1 0.2M 690k BTC 0.01-0.1 0.0M 430k BTC 0.001-0.01 0.0M

Total: 11.8M bitcoins (0.5M bitcoins assumed lost)



There is less holders than before in the category of BTC 70+. The number of holdings smaller than this increased.



The number of bitcoin millionaires, previously estimated 930, decreased to 790 (-15%). Their combined wealth is 5.9M bitcoins, which is 50% of all bitcoins.





Earlier estimate of 3. Dec 2013



#People #Bitcoins #TotalBitcoins 47 BTC 10k+ 3.5M 880 BTC 1k-10k 2.6M 10k BTC 100-1k 3.0M 63k BTC 10-100 1.8M 210k BTC 1-10 0.6M 350k BTC 0.1-1 0.1M 350k BTC 0.01-0.1 0.0M 210k BTC 0.001-0.01 0.0M

Total: 11.6M bitcoins (0.5M bitcoins assumed lost)



1,200,000 people own bitcoins that are valued at more than $1 ( BTC 0.001 or more)

280,000 people own bitcoins that are valued at more than $1,000 ( BTC 1 or more), up from 120,000 last month

930 people own bitcoin that are valued at more than $1 million ( BTC 1,000 or more)

1 person owns bitcoins that are valued at more than $1 billion (Satoshi,



Changes from previous month:

- Bitcoin total number adjusted to account for increase in money supply

- Thoroughly re-engineered the number of bitcoin users from original data of the

- Corrected the highest bracket a little bit ( BTC 0.6M ) upwards because it was over-corrected downwards last time. Number of holders in this category went down a little but we have better estimate of the holdings. As this is a base case model, we do not assume large, completely anonymous entities without at least circumstantial evidence of their holdings.

- Number of people in each bracket behaves according to binomial distribution as found in another data with the parameters: total=1.2 million users, highest bracket=fixed, #of_coins=fixed.



As a result:

- Bracket 1,000-10,000 saw the greatest loss -20%, bracket 100-1,000 lost 10%. Sub- BTC 10 holdings gained a lot.





Earlier estimate of 26. Oct 2013



#People #Bitcoins #TotalBitcoins 50 BTC 10k+ 2.9M 1100 BTC 1k-10k 3.1M 12k BTC 100-1k 3.3M 58k BTC 10-100 1.8M 110k BTC 1-10 0.4M 110k BTC 0.1-1 0.1M 57k BTC 0-0.1 0.0M

Total: 11.5M bitcoins, 350k owners

120,000 people own bitcoins that are valued at more than $1,000 ( BTC 5 or more).



Changes from previous estimate:

- Bitcoin total number adjusted to 11.5M to account for lost coins

- Significantly reduced the number of bitcoin users to account for the assumption that few people would play with stashes that are <$10 in value, and other evidence pointing to a lower number

- Significantly reduced the number of bitcoins owned by the highest bracket due to the lack of evidence that there are many large holders. As this is a base case model, nefarious premine schemes are not assumed without proof. Sorry for falling into that initially.

- Number of people in each bracket behaves according to binomial distribution as found in another data.





Thread is self-moderated to retain readability; user content will be amalgamated to the table and possibly deleted. If this happens, don't take it personally. Total:(0.5M bitcoins assumed lost)The changes from previous estimate:- Total number of holders revised down from 2.0 million to 1.0 million. This did not change much in the distribution of coins. If new users are added, the large holders do sell according to an experimentally derived rate of 17% per doubling in price, but some newish holders also add to their positions. All-new entrants can come to any bracket, because no amount of coins is yet too expensive to buy. The perceived static totals of the analysis hide the fact that Bitcoin trade is quite brisk and the people who consist of a bracket do change all the time.- Number of 10k+ holders recalculated because we now know better the average number of coins in each bracket (thanks to Mt.Gox data). So the large holders still have the same number of coins in total, but there appears to be more of the holders.- Same for 1k+ and 100+. More people but approx the same number of total coins.- 10+ category turned out to be larger than previously estimated. The Mt.Gox data gave us the confidence to use a steeperparameter, which means a more "equitable" distribution with more coins in the middle brackets.- 1+ category remained intact, and the fractional categories were significantly sized down. The lower threshold of "owner" was also raised to0.002 because of the decline in price.- Number of Bitcoin millionaires at this price ($500) is about 400. This means that only 400 people worldwide can raise a $million by selling bitcoins, but about 30,000,000 people can invest a $million to buy bitcoins (without going into debt).- The Bitcoin millionaires command about 4.9 million bitcoins, which is 40% of all bitcoins.Total:(0.5M bitcoins assumed lost)There is less holders than before in the category of70+. The number of holdings smaller than this increased.The number of bitcoin millionaires, previously estimated 930, decreased to 790 (-15%). Their combined wealth is 5.9M bitcoins, which is 50% of all bitcoins.Total:(0.5M bitcoins assumed lost)people own bitcoins that are valued at more than0.001 or more)people own bitcoins that are valued at more than1 or more), up from 120,000 last monthpeople own bitcoin that are valued at more than1,000 or more)person owns bitcoins that are valued at more than(Satoshi, estimated to be BTC 980,000 Changes from previous month:- Bitcoin total number adjusted to account for increase in money supply- Thoroughly re-engineered the number of bitcoin users from original data of the userbases of several services blockchain usage . This shows that the last month estimate was probably too small, and perhaps 50% of the growth in number of users can be attributed to correction of a previous underestimate.- Corrected the highest bracket a little bit (0.6M) upwards because it was over-corrected downwards last time. Number of holders in this category went down a little but we have better estimate of the holdings. As this is a base case model, we do not assume large, completely anonymous entities without at least circumstantial evidence of their holdings.- Number of people in each bracket behaves according to binomial distribution as found in another data with the parameters: total=1.2 million users, highest bracket=fixed, #of_coins=fixed.As a result:- Bracket 1,000-10,000 saw the greatest loss -20%, bracket 100-1,000 lost 10%. Sub-10 holdings gained a lot.Total: 11.5M bitcoins, 350k owners120,000 people own bitcoins that are valued at more than $1,000 (5 or more).Changes from previous estimate:- Bitcoin total number adjusted to 11.5M to account for lost coins- Significantly reduced the number of bitcoin users to account for the assumption that few people would play with stashes that are HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth , Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom , Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!) , Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)

BitChick



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LegendaryActivity: 1148Merit: 1001 Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner October 22, 2013, 07:05:23 PM #4 Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2013, 07:00:41 PM Quote from: BitChick on October 22, 2013, 06:49:25 PM So the numbers are speculated? Any thoughts at all to why the brackets and distribution is in that range though? I always imagined that there were far more holders in the 1000+ range than that.



"Far more" holders there cannot be. I know personally several people that have more than BTC 1,000. The mean of their holdings is significantly higher than that. I don't know exact figures because everybody wants to retain privacy, but my estimate is BTC 4,000. To reach a mean of BTC 4,000, we might have for example 4 people, one owning BTC 10k, and the rest BTC 3k, BTC 2k and BTC 1k, respectively. The large holders raise the mean significantly.



To drive in the point, if all the bitcoins are divided equally to people who have BTC 1,000, there would still be less than 12,000 such people, since there is less than 12 million bitcoins! But since many own much more, assuming mean of BTC 4k, this actually leaves us with only 3,000 people!! I agree that it is shockingly few. And this assumes that nobody owns anything in between BTC 0.00000001 and BTC 1,000, which is clearly incorrect.



The values in the table are my current guesses and now it is up to the community to develop them.

"Far more" holders there cannot be. I know personally several people that have more than1,000. The mean of their holdings is significantly higher than that. I don't know exact figures because everybody wants to retain privacy, but my estimate is4,000. To reach a mean of4,000, we might have for example 4 people, one owning10k, and the rest3k,2k and1k, respectively. The large holders raise the mean significantly.To drive in the point, if all the bitcoins are divided equally to people who have1,000, there would still be less than 12,000 such people, since there is less than 12 million bitcoins!But since many own much more, assuming mean of4k, this actually leaves us with only 3,000 people!! I agree that it is shockingly few. And this assumes that nobody owns anything in between0.00000001 and1,000, which is clearly incorrect.The values in the table are my current guesses and now it is up to the community to develop them.

That makes sense. I guess knowing the total number of bitcoins gives the parameters in which to get some numbers for sure. As the price rises it does become even more difficult for there to be large holders.



Are most of the large holders, beside the Winklvii, early miners? My husband thinks that many of them sold off their coin. In that case the winners in this "game" if you want to call it that are those that buy the earliest and just hold the longest. That makes sense. I guess knowing the total number of bitcoins gives the parameters in which to get some numbers for sure. As the price rises it does become even more difficult for there to be large holders.Are most of the large holders, beside the Winklvii, early miners? My husband thinks that many of them sold off their coin. In that case the winners in this "game" if you want to call it that are those that buy the earliest and just hold the longest. 1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo

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LegendaryActivity: 1372Merit: 1000 Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner October 23, 2013, 12:04:07 AM #7 missing bit) the distribution of large numbers is a nice key to understanding the target distribution.



Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2013, 09:07:29 AM



In 2010, you could effortlessly buy BTC 10,000. But only 2100 people will be able to hold it.

In 2011-2012, you could buy BTC 1,000. But only 21,000 people will be able to.

In 2013, most can buy BTC 100. Still, that is only 210,000 people.



There are more than a million bitcoin users now, so obviously most hold less than BTC 100.



Once the bitcoin userbase grows to one billion, only 21 million at most can hold even a single bitcoin. It does not take a scientist to see that BTC 1 is very valuable, and a stash of BTC 100 bought in 2013 is immensely valuable.



More statistics of bitcoin ownership. Warning: simple math and advanced logic.



Situation later:



#People #Bitcoins #TotalBitcoins 63 BTC 10k+ 3M 1000 BTC 1k-10k 3M 10k BTC 100-1k 3M 100k BTC 10-100 3M 1M BTC 1-10 3M 10M BTC 0.1-1 3M 600M BTC 0-0.1 3M

Total: 21M bitcoins, 611M owners





Of course the numbers in ownership brackets can be off by a factor of 2, but it is mathematically impossible for them to be off by a factor of 10! Therefore we conclude that by buying and holding BTC 1, you are forever guaranteed to be among the top 1 million bitcoin owners, regardless of how cheap you managed to buy it, or how valuable it gets in the nearest years.



Iirc, it takes $10M+ to get to the top 1 million in dollar wealth, so we are talking about royal money.



There are only so many bitcoins...In 2010, you could effortlessly buy10,000. But only 2100 people will be able to hold it.In 2011-2012, you could buy1,000. But only 21,000 people will be able to.In 2013, most can buy100. Still, that is only 210,000 people.There are more than a million bitcoin users now, so obviously most hold less than100.Once the bitcoin userbase grows to one billion, only 21 million at most can hold even a single bitcoin. It does not take a scientist to see that1 is very valuable, and a stash of100 bought in 2013 is immensely valuable.More statistics of bitcoin ownership.Situation later:Total: 21M bitcoins, 611M ownersOf course the numbers in ownership brackets can be off by a factor of 2, but it is mathematically impossible for them to be off by a factor of 10!, regardless of how cheap you managed to buy it, or how valuable it gets in the nearest years.Iirc, it takes $10M+ to get to the top 1 million in dollar wealth, so we are talking about royal money. I thought I would add this () the distribution of large numbers is a nice key to understanding the target distribution. Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw

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DonatorLegendaryActivity: 2730Merit: 1016 Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner October 23, 2013, 06:52:56 AM #10



was it linked from here?



Highly interesting stuff about early mining (maybe signatures) I don't know why a tab in my browser is open with this link: http://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/09/03/new-mystery-about-satoshi/ was it linked from here?Highly interesting stuff about early mining (maybe signatures) PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0 3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769

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LegendaryActivity: 1372Merit: 1000 Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner October 23, 2013, 05:59:14 PM #18 Quote from: justusranvier on October 23, 2013, 05:46:40 PM Personally, I'd vote in a poll where I specified the logarithmic range of my holdings long before I'd consider giving out the exact value, like some other threads ask for...



There is a lot of merit in how the question is asked, and what the goal is for gathering the info.

I had in mind something akin to polls of the past.



I tried to get a glimpse into



We are still in the innovators stage, although the law of large numbers will spared out over a similar bell cure, it is hard to see the mechanism by which it will happen.

There is a lot of merit in how the question is asked, and what the goal is for gathering the info.I had in mind something akin to polls of the past.I tried to get a glimpse into this pattern in this pole (also molecular Simon Sinek has a great TED talk link in the pole about Law of Diffusion of Innovations.)We are still in the innovators stage, although the law of large numbers will spared out over a similar bell cure, it is hard to see the mechanism by which it will happen. Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw

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LegendaryActivity: 2156Merit: 1520 Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner October 23, 2013, 06:07:14 PM #19



those figures may be of some value for bitcoin companies. besides that it is really interesting to see where one stands.



maybe satoshi wakes up one morning with the brilliant idea not to sell his stash for dollars but rather giving it away for free to people in need mediocre early adopters



edit: nice thread who has majored in statistics and can help us with this analysis ? there must be ways to squeeze out more info about this out of the public data.those figures may be of some value for bitcoin companies. besides that it is really interesting to see where one stands.maybe satoshi wakes up one morning with the brilliant idea not to sell his stash for dollars but rather giving it away for free tomediocre early adoptersedit: nice thread