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Math is difficult.

You may remember that ill-advised nugget of condescension then-Progressive Conservative leader Jim Prentice threw at the NDP’s Rachel Notley during the 2015 election debate.

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It was a turning point in the campaign, cementing the transformation of Notley’s crew from upstart underdogs to legitimate election force.

Prentice never recovered from his gaffe. Math is difficult became a rallying point for the NDP, which went on to win its first majority government in Alberta.

Fast forward four years, and the phrase has taken on a different meaning.

In 2019, it turns out math really is difficult for the NDP.

Election math. As in, it’s difficult to calculate many realistic scenarios that add up to Notley winning a second term.

The race has barely begun and there’s a good chance it’s already over.

I don’t say this lightly or with any kind of merriment. No matter what party you might support, I believe it’s in Alberta’s best interests to have a real contest rather than a cakewalk.