All of that said, Republicans have to be considering their options. And there is a real case to be made that withdrawing Kavanaugh may wind up being their best play — or at least an increasingly appealing fallback.

There are certainly downsides. First among them is that it would be an admission of failure — a concession that they were outmaneuvered and that their many defenses of Kavanaugh came up short. They’re invested in this. Democrats, who have long been on the short end of these judicial battles — most notably with Merrick Garland in 2016 — would rejoice, and the GOP would look weak and ineffectual for once.

AD

AD

The second downside would be that Republicans would have to confirm a new justice, and that confirmation would have to take place in the lame-duck session after November’s election. That’s a headache, at best — and especially if Democrats will have just won the Senate. Democrats would point to GOP quotes from the Garland situation, in which Republicans said the voters should decide who picks the new justice. Voters would have just elected Democrats, and Republicans would be ramming through a nominee despite that. (They would do it, mind you, but it would look bad.)

And the third is their nightmare scenario: that the new nominee has a problem, too. If that happens and Democrats have indeed won the Senate, the GOP may lose the ability to run the process. President Trump would still pick the next justice, but it would be subject to Democratic approval. We might see a Garland, rather than a Kavanaugh or an Amy Coney Barrett (a favorite of social conservatives). Conservatives wouldn’t have the hugely significant, clear-cut 5-to-4 majority they’ve had within their grasp.

That, though, is highly unlikely. Republicans are favored to hold the Senate, and they could make the safest pick possible — the most confirmable conservative they can find. The odds that both a Democratic win and a second failed nominee would conspire to deprive them of a Trump-appointed, GOP-confirmed justice are relatively small. All they need, after all, are Republican votes.

AD

AD

And those odds might prove better for Republicans than pressing forward with Kavanaugh. Which brings us to the biggest upside for the GOP for withdrawing him: This all ends.

Republicans have no guarantees that this nomination will succeed, and they have no guarantees that, even if they confirm Kavanaugh, this won’t cast a pall over his service on the court and key 5-to-4 decisions going forward. Every day they spend pressing forward is one more day in confirmation purgatory. It’s also one more day they’re not working to confirm another justice, when that might prove easier and better, over the long haul.

Kavanaugh supporters reading this right now are pulling their hair out. The thought of giving in to Democrats is almost unconscionable, as is the precedent it would set: An unproven allegation with little corroboration taking down an accomplished potential Supreme Court justice. None of this is to say that this would be the correct result, morally or cosmically.