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WEBVTT OF 100 MILLION SPEND. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME, THE LOGJAM IN THE RACE FOR U.S. SENATE IS STARTING TO LOOSEN. >> IT HAD HAD BEEN VERY CLOSE FOR THE LAST COUPLE YEARS, BUT IT'S BREAKING A LITTLE BIT TOWARD MAGGIE HASSAN. JENNIFER: LESS THAN THREE WEEKS TO GO BEFORE THE ELECTION, MAGGIE HASSAN HAS OPENED UP AN EIGHT-POINT LEAD OVER THE REPUBLICAN OPPONENT. AYOTTE IS SIX POINTS UNDER WATER IN THAT CATEGORY. ANDY SMITH SAYS LOOK NO FURTHER THAN THE TOP OF THE TICKET. >> THE CAMPAIGN REALLY HASN'T TRIED TO TIE HASSAN WITH CLINTON AS MUCH AS I THINK THEY PROBABLY SHOULD, BECAUSE CLINTON IS NOT POPULAR IN THE STATE AS WELL. WHERE AS THE HASSAN PEOPLE HAVE BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL, I THINK, RECENTLY IN TYING AYOTTE TO TRUMP. JOSH: WHILE AN EIGHT-POINT LEAD IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCORDING TO SMITH, 50% OF VOTERS HAVE YET TO MAKE UP THEIR MIND IN THE RACE FOR U.S. SENATE. WHILE IN THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR, COLIN VAN OSTERN LEADS REPUBLICAN CHRIS SUNUNU BY SIX POINTS, BUT STL 6 STILL 66% UNDECIDED. >> THE DEBATE IS RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE CAMPAIGN WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT THE THIS RACE, BECAUSE FOR MANY VOTERS IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THEY EVER SEE THESE TWO PEOPLE ON STAGE GOING AGAINST EACH OTHER. JOSH: RIGHT NOW THE TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR DEMOCRATS, BUT IF REPUBLICANS ARE LOOKING FOR A SILVER LINING, SMITH OFFERS THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE. A PHENOMENON IN WHICH BACKERS OF UNPOPULAR CANDIDATES AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET CAMOUFLAGE THEIR SUPPORT UNTIL ELECTION DAY. >> AND THEY'RE ALSO LESS LIKELY TO TALK TO POLLSTERS OR ADMIT THAT THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE FOR A PARTICULAR CANDIDATE. BUT AT THE END, A LOT OF THOSE PEOPLE STILL END UP VOTING. JOSH: THE FAVORABILITY NUMBERS IN THE SENATE RACE WER INVERTED, WE'LL GET THAT CORRECTED. IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS POLL IS ONLY A SNAPSHOT IN TIME, AND WITH SO MANY UNCOMMITTED VOTERS REMAINING THE FINAL OUTCOME

Advertisement WMUR poll: Hassan takes 8 percentage point lead over Ayotte Nationally watched race could determine which party controls U.S. Senate in 2017 Share Shares Copy Link Copy

For the first time in New Hampshire’s blockbuster U.S. Senate campaign, the race is no longer a virtual dead heat. Gov. Maggie Hassan has taken an 8 percentage point lead over Sen. Kelly Ayotte, according to a new poll. The WMUR Granite State Poll found that the Democratic governor leads the Republican incumbent 46 percent to 38 percent among likely voters, while 3 percent favored someone else and 13 percent were undecided. When undecided voters were asked who they were leaning toward supporting, Hassan leads Ayotte 48 percent to 39 percent, with 4 percent supporting someone else and 9 percent undecided. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center polled 907 randomly selected New Hampshire adults, including 770 likely voters, from Oct. 11-17. The margin of error for the likely voter sample was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The survey center said the new poll marked the first time either candidate in the Senate race “has held a statistically significant lead since the UNH Survey Center began polling on this race in May 2015.” View the full poll results here. The New Hampshire contest is viewed as the key to determining which party controls the U.S. Senate in 2017, when a new president takes office. Currently, there are 54 Republicans and 44 Democrats in the Senate, as well as two independents who caucus with the Democrats. The Hassan-Ayotte race is shaping up to be the most expensive campaign in state history, with nearly $100 million expected to be spent on advertising and other political activities by outside super PACs and issues groups when the campaign wraps up on Election Day. The poll found that despite heavy media coverage of the race and a constant barrage of negative television advertising focusing on one candidate or the other, only 50 percent of likely voters have definitely decided which candidate they will support on Election Day, while 15 percent are leaning toward a candidate and 35 percent are still trying to decide. Survey Center director Andrew Smith explained that in the so-called “horse race” question, likely voters are asked who they would support if the election were held today. The percentages for the candidates include those who are leaning toward supporting each candidate, even though they might not have made a final, definite decision on who they will vote for on Nov. 8. As a result, 35 percent of likely voters have not made a final decision about who they will support on Election Day, while only 9 percent of likely voters could not say who they would vote for if the election were held today. The Trump effect The poll was released a day after a WMUR Granite State Poll focusing on the presidential race in New Hampshire showed that Democrat Hillary Clinton widened her lead over Republican Donald Trump to 15 percentage points. Smith said the surge by Hassan can be attributed to a drop in Ayotte’s favorability rating. He noted that she is now “underwater” for the first time, with only 39 percent viewing her favorably and 45 percent viewing her unfavorably. In an August WMUR Granite State Poll, 46 percent of likely voters viewed her favorably and 42 percent viewed her unfavorably. In that poll, Hassan led Ayotte by a slim margin of 44 percent to 42 percent. Hassan, meanwhile, was viewed favorably by 50 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 36 percent. In August, 52 percent of likely votes viewed Hassan favorably, while 37 percent viewed her unfavorably. Separately, the poll also found that Hassan continues to have a positive job approval rating, with 48 percent approving of the job she is doing as governor, while 34 percent disapprove and 16 percent were neutral or did not know enough to say. In July, the last time the question was posed, 48 percent approved of Hassan’s job performance while 35 percent disapproved. Smith noted that Ayotte has been on the receiving end of a steady stream of negative television attacks ad produced by the Hassan campaign and outside groups supporting the governor. Groups backing Ayotte have attacked Hassan as well, but the pro-Hassan groups have been advertising more heavily on New Hampshire and Boston television airwaves in recent months. Many of those attacks have focused on tying Ayotte to Trump, who, according to the poll released on Wednesday, is highly unpopular in the state. The survey center began polling three days after Ayotte announced that she was dropping her support for Trump, following the release of a 2005 videotape of sexually charged comments that he made about women. Yet the poll indicates that Ayotte’s decision to drop her support for Trump did not hurt her among Trump supporters. Although she was heavily criticized on social media by hard-core Trump backers, the poll shows that 82 percent of Trump supporters back Ayotte. Among all self-identified Republicans, Ayotte is supported by 81 percent. Hassan, meanwhile, is supported by 84 percent of all self-identified Democratic voters and the same percentage of Clinton supporters. Self-identified independents are almost evenly divided, with 36 percent favoring Hassan and 34 percent favoring Ayotte. In an August poll, independents slightly favored Ayotte, 38 percent to 32 percent. The poll also shows a continued gender split in the race, with women favoring Hassan 56 percent to 33 percent and men favoring Ayotte 46 percent to 39 percent. Smith said many of the Trump supporters who were polled may have been unaware that Ayotte had dropped her support of Trump.Overall, he said, “If she has to rebut the attacks and defend herself, she is not getting across the message that she wants to convey.” Smith also cautioned that the poll results may not necessarily project a final result on Nov. 8. “Republicans are less likely to talk with pollsters whether they like or don’t like Trump, and as a result, our sample is more Democratic than it is likely to end up being on Election Day," he said. " My sense is that Republican turnout is likely to be higher and, as a result, the race is likely to be closer.” The polling sample includes 48 percent registered undeclared likely voters, 27 percent registered Democrats and 25 percent registered Republicans. But 48 percent of the likely voters surveyed identified themselves as Democratic voters, while 38 percent self-identified as Republicans and 15 percent considered themselves independent. The poll also found that two other candidates for the U.S. Senate are largely unknown to voters. It found that 2 percent have a favorable opinion of independent candidate Aaron Day, 7 percent have an unfavorable opinion, 6 percent are neutral while 84 percent did not know enough about him to give an opinion. Libertarian candidate Brian Chabot is also unknown to 84 percent of likely voters, while 3 percent expressed a favorable opinion of him and 6 percent had an unfavorable opinion. The survey center also asked New Hampshire adults for their opinions of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, finding that she was viewed favorably by 52 percent and unfavorably by 26 percent. Shaheen won re-election in 2014 and will not be up for another term, should she choose to run, until 2020.