I came across a great hand on the TV show High Stakes Poker.

The hand is from Season 3, Episode 12, and it features poker professionals Phil Ivey and Brad Booth (yes, the same Brad Booth who used some psychology and game theory in Poker After Dark).

Some background on the hand: Booth had appeared on High Stakes Poker before. This time he bought in for a cool million dollars, hoping to intimidate opponents with a big stack. This is one of Phil Ivey’s first hands on High Stakes Poker and he bought in for about 300,000.

Here’s how the hand went down. Keep reading for my analysis.

Youtube video: High Stakes Poker Brad Booth vs Phil Ivey

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"All will be well if you use your mind for your decisions, and mind only your decisions." Since 2007, I have devoted my life to sharing the joy of game theory and mathematics. MindYourDecisions now has over 1,000 free articles with no ads thanks to community support! Help out and get early access to posts with a pledge on Patreon. .

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The pre-flop betting

The hand started routinely with a raise to $1,800. Brad Booth then re-raised to $5,800 with his weak hand of 2-4 spades, perhaps in an attempt to steal the pot.

But it was not a good time to try because Phil Ivey woke up with pocket kings. Ivey played his hand strongly and re-raised to $14,000.

The action folded around the table to Booth. While contemplating the decision, Booth asked Ivey how many chips he had. He was likely trying to get a read on Ivey and also deciding if the hand was worth pursuing.

Upon hearing Ivey had $300,000, Booth made the call because he stood to win a lot of money with the right kind of flop (in other words, he figured he had good implied pot odds).

On the flop

The flop comes 3-7-6 with two diamonds, missing both Booth and Ivey.

With no ace on the board, Ivey figures his kings are the best hand and he bets out $23,000, about 2/3 of the pot. Ivey probably wants to win the hand right there. He certainly doesn’t want Booth to catch up with a flush or straight draw.

It would seem that Booth would fold here. The flop was not good for him, and he’s seen Ivey represent a strong hand–with a big pre-flop re-raise and a continuation bet on the flop.

And this is where the hand gets crazy. Booth, with only a four high, announces that he’s all-in! He really is putting Phil Ivey all-in. He lays down three cash bricks, each one hundred thousand dollars, right on the table.

Ivey is completely caught off-guard by the bet. His face at 2:15-2:19 is priceless. He’s thinking, what the heck does Booth have?

Ivey understandably takes some time to figure out whether to call. He’s probably mulling over what Booth might have. Here are a few possibilities:

—Three-of-a-kind of 3s, 6s, or 7s: It’s possible Booth raised pre-flop with a low pair like 3s, 6s, or 7s, and he got lucky enough to his a set. Against one of these hands Ivey is a huge underdog, with only about a 13 percent chance of winning.

—An ace high-flush draw: An aggressive player could have raised with ace-queen, ace-jack, or ace-ten suited diamonds on the flop. But this is not a very strong hand even with the favorable flop. Ivey’s kings would still be a favorite with over a 56 percent chance of winning, which would give him the right odds to call $250,000 for a pot of $300,000. Still a gutsy call but one that Ivey might make.

—A pair of aces: This is another hand that could worry Ivey. Booth was fearless in the pre-flop betting and could have represented a strong pair. He also raised big here to possibly price out draws if Ivey were chasing. Against aces Ivey would have just a 13 percent chance of winning.

—A pair of jacks or queens: Ivey might also be putting Booth on a strong pair like queens or jacks. Booth’s pre-flop betting would be consistent with these hands. Ivey would be a huge favorite–over 90 percent–to these hands. He’d be in great position to double up, and it’s tempting to call.

It’s pretty much impossible to put Booth on the hand he actually has. After all, he’s betting $300,000 on a 4 high to win a $55,000 pot. Sure, betting is the only way he can win the hand. But there’s no need to chase this hand. He can pick a better spot, with a better hand, to play a big pot.

In the end, Ivey releases his hand and folds. I read somewhere that he was putting putting Booth on pocket aces, a reasonable rationale.

It’s debated whether Booth was being smart or reckless, but the commentator seems to believe it was a great move. He says that Booth played the hand for two reasons: “One, he doesn’t think Phil Ivey can call him with a pair of queens, kings, or aces. And two, he is advertising. He is showing that he is totally unpredictable and he expects this $300,000 bet here to pay dividends in the future.”

What do you think: was Booth’s all-in bet genius or stupid?