Female earnings decline after the birth of their first child. But according to a new paper released a few days ago:

Kleven et al. (2018): Child Penalties Across Countries

… it happens to markedly different extents across different countries and cultural blocs.

Robert Dur summarizes:

The short-run earnings penalty is about twice as large in Sweden as it is in Denmark. (2/6)

The UK and US feature less dramatic short-run earning penalties, but larger long-run penalties: 44% in the UK and 31% in the US. (3/6)

By far the highest earnings penalties are found for Germany and Austria: up to 80% in the short run and 60% in the long run. (4/6)

The earnings hit is surprisingly well correlated to public opinion on stay at home moms.

It’s also pretty clear that there’s a strong relationship between this, and realized fertility rates (high in Scandinavia and the Anglosphere; low in the Germanic world).

Plus Cicerone also points out that fertility is less dysgenic in the Scandinavian states than in the rest of the developed world after adjusting for the effects of Third World immigration:

And more importantly, the degree of dysgenics seems to be dependent on government policies. The Nordics with their comprehensive family policies suffer from little dysgenics among their native population. They simply provide the environment that makes highly educated women breed as well or even more so than their low educated co-ethnic brethren. Migrants obviously distort that picture, but in Sweden, third world migrants have less kids than in France, which follows a more “blind” pronatalist policy. By far the worst dysgenic trend, when judged by education level (has its shortcomings, I know!), can be observed in the Latin American countries. Their lower classes still have quite some kids, while their educated classes are as sterile as their counterparts in Spain or Portugal. Why? Because public services suck in these countries, and private schools, security and all other additional perks that are needed to lead a first world lifestyle in Latin America cost a lot of money, meaning that even upper middle class families can’t afford to have a bunch of kids in such an environment.

If you want to solve the fertility problem – it’s either the Scandinavian Model, or White Sharia. No in betweens. Mainstream social conservatism is a failure, as it is in most things.

White Sharia isn’t politically feasible, so that really leaves just the former.