So far, 2018 is bringing a general sense -- supported by economists -- that Michigan's jobs rebound continues. Overall unemployment remains around 5 percent. The minimum wage is now increased to $9.25 per hour. And wages are trending up, slowly, in response to the tight labor market.

The gains don't just end in the workplace. Most home values are increasing, along with consumer confidence -- and spending.

But at least half of the state's residents can't trust that those glimpses of the improving economy benefit them. Those gains look good on paper, but they don't tell the whole story about how economics affect residents' wallets.

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Michigan continues to work its way back to employment and payroll levels that it last saw before the Great Recession, leaving a gap between improving data and personal gains.

And it raises questions about what Michigan needs to do next, particularly as voters make state leadership decisions in the 2018 election.

Consider: While overall unemployment reached 5 percent early this year, the range across the state was 3.6 to 11.3 percent -- showing the disparity of opportunity, based on where a person lives.

At the same time, per capita income increased in only 24 of Michigan's 83 counties from 2010 to 2015, when the dollars are adjusted for inflation. That means it fell in 59 counties.

And in 25 Michigan counties, the per capita income fell from a generation ago: In each of those places -- counties like Ingham, Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne -- formerly thriving manufacturing communities in the late 1980s gave up some prosperity as their lost high-paying jobs weren't replaced.

Meanwhile, the Michigan United Way in 2017 updated its report on low-wage workers and found:

25 percent of Michiganders are working but not earning enough for basic household necessities. Another 15 percent are below the federal poverty line.

62 percent of jobs in Michigan pay less than $20 per hour, or $41,600 per year.

40 percent of jobs in Michigan pay less than $15 per hour, or $31,200 per year.

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And over time, the situation is not improving. When adjusting wages for inflation, the number of jobs paying less than $20 per hour grew from 55 percent in 2007.

"There are a lot fewer good-paying jobs than people think there are," said Lou Glazer, economist and CEO of Michigan Future Inc.

Critical to understand within that dynamic, Glazer said, is the fact that a job that pays more than $37,000 per year -- which is the midpoint across the U.S. -- increasingly requires a four-year degree. Among jobs that pay $60,000 per year, 88 percent require a four-year degree.

More data supporting that: In 2016, according to the U.S. Census, a person with a bachelor's degree earned 57 percent more than someone with a high school diploma. That gap is expected to grow.

"Jobs that don't require advanced education are just disappearing," Glazer said. "Some is due to globalization, but mostly to technology.

"That trend is going to continue for a long time."

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Experts considering the trend for Michigan recognize a number of metrics that need to change for the state to experience true growth in opportunity and outcomes across its population.

The time is right to address them, they said, since residents will be choosing a new governor -- and, given history, the business cycle could change in coming years.

"We are at or very near full employment," said Charles Ballard, economist at Michigan State University. "Our economy has been growing for eight or nine years. We're at the peak of the business cycle.

"... Here we are, at the peak of the business cycle, and the economy is as big as it's ever been," he said. "What will happen when we have a recession?"

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Here are eight moves that experts in Michigan's economy say would mean significant economic and job growth for the state:

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1. Michigan needs more people with four-year college degrees.

There are several reasons. One is that over time, those are the people who will earn the most. Another is that talent is the driver for the best jobs -- so if we want to be home to tech hubs, major high-paying employers or expanding companies that are here now, our residents need to be work-ready.

And that means a four-year degree -- or more.

Today, about 28 percent of Michigan residents completed four years of college. Another 10.3 percent earned associate's degrees. Nationally, about one-third of Americans hold a four-year college degree.

"The core of growing an economy is human capital," Glazer said. "If you have talented people, companies will come."

Gov. Rick Snyder's Marshall Plan addresses education and job-readiness across the spectrum, and Ballard says it's a good first step for Michigan. Other efforts have focused on building the skilled trades and apprenticeship programs, which also are important to the state -- for example, someone who doesn't choose a four-year degree will find higher-paying jobs via those routes.

But Glazer says the semi-skilled jobs will end up declining in number.

"Despite all the rhetoric to the contrary, folks with four-year degrees are doing terrific," Glazer said. "And those opportunities are expanding. "

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And, he warns, the four-year degree attainment can't remain below the national average if Michigan expects to grow its relevance with top employers -- and grow its income levels.

"Most of the really good paying jobs require a four-year degree," Glazer said.

He continued: "There just aren't that many $60,000-per-year jobs where a typical worker can make that kind of money without a four-year degree."

Glazer added that residents should recognize concerns arising from the fact that children of college graduates are most likely to pursue higher education. Getting kids who aren't from college-educated homes to choose a four-year degree, and not trade school or low-wage jobs, will broaden the middle class, Glazer said.

He continued: "If ($60,000 per year) jobs are what you're trying to attract, that should be the focus. Increased educational attainment is the single most important leverage toward doing that."

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2. The state needs good-paying jobs, not just jobs.

Landing an Amazon warehouse with more than 1,000 full-time jobs with benefits is a win for Michigan. But that time of job gain -- along with other lower-wage manufacturing work, which might pay $10 or $11 per hour -- self-limits how many Michigan residents in those jobs will enter the middle class.

None will, unless they have a spouse or household member earning the same amount.

While those jobs offer move-up opportunities to minimum wage workers, it's the higher-paying jobs -- which also now mean jobs that require more education - that move the needle for Michigan's economic progress.

According to Business Leaders for Michigan, a nonprofit advocacy group, creating 250 new jobs at 125 percent of the regional average wage will prompt an additional 400-1,100 new jobs, and create $13- to $28 billion in additional tax revenue, depending on the industry.

The Michigan Economic Development Corporation, the state's job attractor, tracks the pay ranges for the companies that it awards grants and tax breaks. In 2017, new jobs in six of the nine regions of the state averaged below the regional wage.

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3. Michigan needs to increase school funding.

Experts are watching this closely. The K-12 concern is part of this, such as Michigan students' below-average performance on standardized math tests when math is a key to high-paying careers.

"If it were up to me, I'd have a K-12 school year of 195 days or even 200," Ballard said. " ... Kids in America just spend a whole lot less time on educational tasks ... with predictable results."

Other issues include retaining teachers, he said, due to pay and other concerns.

"I would do more from preschool to Ph.d., " Ballard said. And he warned: "Some things will cost money."

But he notes that the refrain among legislators is to cut taxes, no matter where the money comes from.

Gov. Rick Snyder recently proposed the largest per-pupil state aid increase in 15 years, a move with a $313 million price tag that he said can be addressed, in part, with line-item adjustments.

However, higher education funding also has struggled, with Michigan's public universities seeing a 44 percent drop in aid from 2010 to 2017, in current dollars.

Education funding is an issue in job-training, too. Greg Pitoniak, CEO of Southeast Michigan Community Alliance, said Recovery Act funding wound down after the Great Recession, and other funding streams are limiting. The agency is the Michigan Works! Office for Wayne and Monroe counties.

"The ability to fund training for individuals or employers is much more limited," he said.

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4. Upskilling Michigan workers needs to be an ongoing effort.

Gov. Rick Snyder announced in his Marshall Plan that he wants to train the state's residents for the high-skill, high-demand jobs the workplace needs. Training programs, financial assistance and incentives all are a part of that. Ultimately, he said, that could mean an additional $50 billion in wages paid within Michigan.

That follows efforts to increase apprentices, and a federal push -- fueled in part by Sen. Debbie Stabenow -- to increase training for jobs in construction, trades and advanced manufacturing.

It's an important effort because many of the people who could take advantage of the program are destined for low-wage work -- and they will never be a part of the state's middle class, experts said.

For that income group, "it's been a pretty mediocre time. Earnings for people in the bottom half of income distribution have not done anywhere near as well as earnings in the top half," Ballard said.

He said he thinks the Snyder plan is a "step in the right direction."

"Anything that gets people skills they need to fit into modern workforce is good," he said. "I wish the governor had done more along those lines a year ago."

But the danger comes from thinking that's enough. Some of those workers should be in the pool who go on to get four-year degrees, Glazer said.

And others -- no matter where they stand on their career continuum -- need to be ready to gain new skills and consider next work steps.

Even degree-holders "can get lost in the economy, too," Pitoniak said.

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5. The state's best urban environments need to grow and thrive.

Glazer points to the recent Amazon search for a second headquarters and how the internet retail giant only would consider metro areas of 1 million people or more. That represents about 5 percent of the land mass of America.

"Knowledge-based companies need concentrated talent," he said. "They can't find the talent they're looking for in small-size communities."

That means the state needs to cultivate its urban centers of Detroit and Grand Rapids, along with its university corridors. That may mean more attention and funding to public transportation.

The concentrations of jobs become attractive to younger people, many of whom choose to stay in Michigan because of jobs in those cities.

But we lose ground, Ballard said, when considering the factors that would cause people to move here from outside the state.

"Not all kids move to Chicago," he said of recent graduates. "It's not that the rate of outmigration is unusually high; the rate of in-migration is unusually low."

"(People in other states) don't think of moving to Michigan very often," Ballard said.

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6. Michigan should look at policy to improve jobs.

Wages are only part of the picture when it comes to hiring and retaining workers, and increasing productivity.

Stronger states will have public policy regulations that take that into account, said Ruark, which effectively create safety nets for lower-wage workers that can keep them in the job market and outside of public assistance.

"We want to see improved job quality in Michigan," he said. "... We want people moving to a state where workers are taken care of."

Ruark offered examples like predictable schedule laws, which operate in other states. Allowing all workers to earn paid sick leave could be another meaningful measure. One proposal that didn't pass in Michigan called for a worker to earn one paid hour of sick time for every 30 hours worked.

Even mandating increases to the minimum wage so that it keeps up with inflation would maintain its value to workers, Ruark said. He added that 85 percent of them are age 20 or older.

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7. Altering the sales tax structure would boost revenue.

Ballard looks at both infrastructure and education at areas where the state ranks low, and sees one immediate -- and not politically popular -- way to improve Michigan's value to residents, business owners and potential new employers.

Michigan could raise taxes.

"A lot of people say that would be the most horrible thing," he said. "But maybe we could pave our roads. Maybe we could have really good K-12 education."

And a discussion of tax hikes could also illustrate where promises of tax cuts will not correspond to improvements in either.

One specific area, he said, is sales tax. The structural problem, he said, is that it doesn't apply to services or entertainment.

"Those are areas growing in the economy," he said. "... Sales tax applies to an ever-shrinking portion of the economy."

Taxing ourselves at the national average would raise $3 billion more per year, Ballard said. Taxing at the rate of a generation ago would mean $10 billion more.

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8. Michigan could better leverage its universities and innovation.

John Austin, director of the Michigan Economic Center, released a range of recommendations in 2017 to position Michigan's strengths for growth.

Key among them, as the state considers growing high-paying jobs, is increasing university funding -- with an eye toward further growing the innovation in our existing research and development centers.

"Probably our greatest economic engine is our top-tier university research," Austin said in June, adding that the research is accompanied by a value of $2 billion.

Yet Austin said the state "walked away from investing in the innovation ecosystem" as it altered the 21st Century Investment Fund. He suggested starting a new innovation fund, with investment from private investors, to seed development in emerging areas.

The other part of that includes investing more in higher ed. "This is where the state should be making more investment not less," Austin said. The funding, he added, would be "huge investment in new jobs in Michigan."

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Over the course of the next several months, MLive will explore issues of economy, education and infrastructure, and what Michigan leaders need to do to create a better future. We'd love to hear from you, about your struggles and your wins, as you navigate Michigan's economic landscape. We want to use your voice and your questions to frame the conversation with candidates as we head into midterm elections. Have a story to share, send us an email to michiganbeyond@mlive.

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