Wynne Liberals on Track to Lose Party Status in 2018

Currently trending to win only 7 of 122 seats

Toronto, March 30th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 884 Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, the PCs (43%) hold a 15-point lead over their nearest rival – the NDP (28%). The Liberals (19%) are 24 points back of the leading Progressive Conservatives. The Green Party sits at (8%).

The PCs are close to their February support level, down one point (44%: Feb 16), while the NDP is up three points (25%: Feb 16), and the Liberals have dropped 5 points (24%: Feb 16).

Regionally, the Progressive Conservatives have commanding leads over their nearest rival in four of six regions, Toronto (PC 47% - NDP 24%), Eastern Ontario (PC 43% - Lib/NDP 24%), 905 (PC 47% - NDP 31%), and Southwestern Ontario (PC 42% - NDP 29%). The PCs are statistically tied with the NDP in North Eastern Ontario (PC 34% - NDP 31%).

The Liberals who hold the most seats in Toronto and the 905, but are, at present, displaying low levels of support: (19%) in Toronto and (12%) in the 905.

PC majority, NDP opposition, Liberals third party, without party status

If an election were held today the PCs would win a majority government with 86 seats. The NDP would win 29, and the Liberals just 7, not enough for official party status within the Legislature.

This projection sees an increase of 2 seats for the PCs (84: Feb 16) and the NDP (27: Feb 16), at the expense of the governing Liberals who are down 4 (11: Feb 16).

Andrea Horwath currently the most approved leader

Kathleen Wynne sees has an approval of (12%) and disapproval (79%), and her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) worsens to -67 (-66: Feb 16).

The plurality of voters “do not know” what they think of Patrick Brown (44%). (27%) approve and (29%) disapprove, which increases his net favourable score to -2. (-3: Feb 16).

Andrea Horwath sees the highest approval amongst the three leaders, with (36%) approving, and (30%) disapproving. Over a third (34%) of respondents do not offer an opinion on her leadership of the NDP.

No leader seen as best choice to be premier

A plurality of respondents, almost a third, selected none of these (30%) when asked who would make the best premier. Brown (23%) and Horwath (22%) were tied behind none, with Kathleen Wynne at just (9%), below “do not know” at (15%).

“Support for the Liberals has declined precipitously both in Toronto and the 905, which has them teetering on the brink of losing party status. Even though Kathleen Wynne is a fierce campaigner, and could never be fully counted out, the Liberal budget needs bold ideas that resonate with a lot of Ontarians for the Liberals to have any hope of re-election,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.