February 5, 2016 - U.S. Republicans Want Trump, But Rubio Is Best In November, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Dem Race Is Tied, But Sanders Runs Better Against GOP

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Donald Trump still leads the GOP presidential pack among Republican voters nationwide, with 31 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 22 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 19 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 6 percent, with 9 percent undecided and no other candidate above 3 percent.





In the Democratic race nationwide, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has 44 percent, with Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 42 percent, and 11 percent undecided. This compares to a 61 - 30 percent Clinton lead in a December 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.





Sanders and Rubio are the strongest candidates in general election matchups. If former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs, he hurts Sanders more than he hurts any of the top Republican contenders.





Among Republicans, 30 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, while 15 percent say no to Cruz and 7 percent say no to Rubio.





Sanders has the highest favorability rating among top candidates, while Trump has the lowest.





"Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"And despite the Iowa setback, Donald Trump is way ahead of his GOP opponents."





"But that's not the whole story nine months before Election Day. In mano a mano, or mano a womano, face-offs with all contenders, Sanders and Rubio would be the candidates left standing," Malloy added.





"Although he is characterized as the New York counterpunch to Trump, Mayor Mike Bloomberg is more the nemesis of Bernie than he is of Donald."





General election matchups among American voters show:

Clinton tops Trump 46 - 41 percent;

Clinton ties Cruz 45 - 45 percent;

Clinton trails Rubio 48 - 41 percent;

Sanders thumps Trump 49 - 39 percent;

Sanders edges Cruz 46 - 42 percent;

Sanders and Rubio are tied 43 - 43 percent. If Bloomberg runs as a third party candidate in some contests, results are:

Sanders at 35 percent, with Trump at 36 percent and Bloomberg at 15 percent;

Sanders at 37 percent, with Cruz at 36 percent and Bloomberg at 15 percent.

Sanders has a 44 - 35 percent favorability rating among American voters. Ratings for other candidates are:

Negative 39 - 56 percent for Clinton;

Negative 34 - 59 percent for Trump;

Negative 36 - 42 percent for Cruz;

Positive 42 - 28 percent for Rubio;

Negative 20 - 25 percent for Bloomberg with 53 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"While Trump, Clinton and Cruz wallow in a negative favorability swamp, by comparison, Rubio and Sanders are rock stars," Malloy said.





From February 2 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,125 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 507 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points and 484 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.





Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS................ Wht Tea BrnAgn COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Men Wom Yes No Bush 3% 1% 1% 2% 4% 2% 3% Carson 6 5 9 5 7 4 6 Christie 3 3 3 2 3 4 2 Cruz 22 31 28 19 26 18 24 Fiorina 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 Gilmore - - - - - - - Kasich 3 2 3 5 2 6 3 Rubio 19 14 18 18 20 28 15 Trump 31 32 31 39 23 25 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 9 9 5 6 13 7 10

1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................ CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1........... Tot Cruz Rubio Trump Made up 48% 45% 46% 60% Might change 52 55 52 40 DK/NA - - 2 -

2. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Kasich, Rubio, or Trump? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)

REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS................ Wht Tea BrnAgn COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Men Wom Yes No Bush 24% 36% 16% 29% 17% 22% 24% Carson 8 4 6 8 7 10 6 Christie 12 12 6 12 12 13 11 Cruz 15 6 10 17 12 21 12 Fiorina 13 10 9 15 11 14 13 Gilmore 10 7 7 12 8 10 10 Kasich 11 11 12 12 10 12 11 Rubio 7 7 5 11 4 8 7 Trump 30 24 28 27 35 35 28 No/No one 28 34 38 27 29 27 29 DK/NA 7 6 5 6 7 2 9

3. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.... COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Yes No Clinton 44% 38% 48% 45% 44% Sanders 42 48 38 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 2 DK/NA 11 10 12 10 11

3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3................ CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3...... Tot Clinton Sanders Made up 65% 67% 63% Might change 33 29 37 DK/NA 2 4 -

4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Clinton 46% 9% 87% 48% 39% 52% 51% 44% Trump 41 80 7 34 48 36 37 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 4 3 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 7 6 2 10 8 6 8 7 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 2 4 3 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 61% 40% 44% 41% 30% 42% 36% 82% Trump 23 50 43 49 57 44 50 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 11 7 6 4 8 7 8 3 DK/NA 2 1 4 3 2 5 3 3

5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Clinton 45% 9% 89% 42% 38% 52% 51% 42% Cruz 45 86 5 41 49 41 40 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 3 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 3 9 7 3 6 4 DK/NA 3 1 3 5 3 4 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 57% 39% 44% 40% 30% 42% 36% 77% Cruz 33 52 45 49 56 49 52 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 1 3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 6 4 5 9 4 6 2 DK/NA 4 1 5 4 2 4 3 5

6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Clinton 41% 5% 84% 38% 34% 47% 45% 39% Rubio 48 89 9 47 54 43 48 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 8 7 2 3 5 DK/NA 4 2 4 5 3 6 3 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 50% 35% 42% 38% 27% 37% 32% 79% Rubio 37 58 48 51 60 54 57 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 3 3 4 8 2 5 4 DK/NA 5 1 5 5 3 5 4 4

7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Sanders 49% 11% 84% 56% 46% 52% 51% 48% Trump 39 76 8 30 45 33 35 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 5 4 8 5 7 9 4 DK/NA 5 4 4 4 2 7 4 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Sanders 72% 40% 47% 39% 37% 42% 40% 77% Trump 19 46 42 48 55 42 48 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 7 6 6 4 6 5 6 DK/NA 4 6 4 4 2 8 5 7

8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Sanders 46% 9% 81% 51% 44% 48% 51% 44% Cruz 42 83 6 35 44 40 38 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 6 6 6 4 5 5 DK/NA 6 4 6 6 4 7 4 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Sanders 65% 41% 41% 38% 37% 40% 39% 64% Cruz 26 47 46 49 51 49 50 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 6 4 7 7 3 5 4 DK/NA 5 4 7 5 4 7 5 10

9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Sanders 43% 6% 81% 43% 41% 44% 46% 41% Rubio 43 83 8 40 47 40 45 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 DK/NA 8 5 6 10 5 9 3 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Sanders 62% 37% 40% 34% 34% 36% 35% 67% Rubio 26 53 45 52 54 51 52 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 DK/NA 7 4 10 6 6 9 7 10

10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as an independent, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Sanders 35% 5% 70% 35% 35% 35% 34% 36% Trump 36 69 7 28 41 30 28 39 Bloomberg 15 15 11 19 14 15 23 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 6 4 5 4 4 DK/NA 9 5 10 11 4 13 9 9 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Sanders 55% 29% 33% 27% 26% 26% 26% 67% Trump 18 40 39 45 50 38 43 8 Bloomberg 15 16 16 12 16 18 17 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 6 4 5 3 5 4 6 DK/NA 9 8 9 9 4 13 9 10

11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat, Ted Cruz the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as an independent, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Sanders 37% 6% 70% 36% 37% 37% 36% 37% Cruz 36 74 3 28 39 33 33 37 Bloomberg 15 12 13 21 13 16 20 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 5 5 3 3 4 DK/NA 8 5 10 9 5 11 7 9 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Sanders 57% 32% 33% 28% 29% 29% 29% 61% Cruz 20 41 38 44 46 41 43 13 Bloomberg 14 17 15 12 15 17 16 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 5 5 5 3 4 4 DK/NA 8 5 9 10 6 10 8 9

12. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 39% 7% 75% 39% 31% 47% 43% 37% Unfavorable 56 89 22 55 64 49 54 57 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 2 5 3 2 1 3 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 39% 34% 42% 41% 23% 39% 31% 73% Unfavorable 55 63 54 56 74 57 66 20 Hvn't hrd enough 5 2 2 1 2 3 3 5 REFUSED 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2

13. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 34% 60% 13% 26% 39% 29% 28% 37% Unfavorable 59 34 83 64 54 64 67 56 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 3 8 5 5 3 6 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 16% 40% 37% 41% 47% 36% 41% 8% Unfavorable 79 51 59 51 46 57 52 84 Hvn't hrd enough 2 8 3 5 4 5 5 6 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 3 1 2 2

14. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 36% 68% 9% 27% 39% 33% 33% 37% Unfavorable 42 19 61 48 45 38 56 35 Hvn't hrd enough 20 11 27 23 13 26 9 25 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 25% 42% 37% 41% 42% 39% 40% 19% Unfavorable 49 41 41 35 45 38 41 41 Hvn't hrd enough 25 17 19 21 11 21 16 38 REFUSED 1 1 3 3 2 2 2 2

15. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 42% 69% 17% 40% 47% 38% 44% 41% Unfavorable 28 8 48 30 30 26 36 24 Hvn't hrd enough 29 20 34 28 21 36 18 33 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 34% 45% 45% 44% 52% 44% 48% 12% Unfavorable 32 27 26 23 28 22 25 38 Hvn't hrd enough 31 27 27 30 18 33 26 50 REFUSED 3 - 1 3 2 1 2 -

16. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 44% 13% 72% 53% 44% 45% 51% 41% Unfavorable 35 66 10 30 41 30 38 34 Hvn't hrd enough 19 19 18 16 13 23 10 23 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 60% 41% 41% 36% 39% 40% 39% 55% Unfavorable 19 43 39 38 48 38 43 14 Hvn't hrd enough 19 16 19 23 12 20 16 31 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 1 2 2 -

17. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?