A decision by Austria’s mainstream parties to end their grand coalition and hold a parliamentary election in the fall gives the right-wing Freedom Party its best chance in nearly 20 years to join, and possibly even lead, the government.

The governing alliance of Social Democrats (SPÖ) and People’s Party (ÖVP) had been shaky for months and began to topple last week after the surprise resignation of ÖVP leader and Vice Chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner. His departure triggered a chain reaction that left Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz in charge of the center-right People's Party and the four-year-old government effectively dead 18 months before it was due to expire.

"The ties between us have been cut," Chancellor Christian Kern, a Social Democrat, told Austrian television after Kurz said he did not want to continue the grand coalition. Leaders of the party groups in the Austrian parliament agreed on Monday to support a motion in favor of an early election, which is expected to be on October 8 or 15.

The coming campaign promises to once again turn Austria into a battleground between Europe’s political establishment and right-wing populists. In December, the FPÖ saw Austria’s presidency snatched from its grasp after a bitter and tumultuous campaign, the first of a recent string of major setbacks for Europe’s populists.

Unlike in the Netherlands and France, where voters managed to keep right-wing parties out of government, in Austria it may be impossible to form a coalition without them.

Neither of the large centrist parties wants to reprise the grand coalition, which has been in power under SPÖ leadership for a decade. That makes the most likely alternative partner for either party the FPÖ.

The two coalition partners and the FPÖ are each polling between 25 and 30 percent. With the Greens at just 12 percent and the liberal Neos at 5 percent, it’s difficult to make the coalition math work without the populist right.

While a grand coalition — the constellation that has governed Austria for most of the postwar period — would likely still be possible, officials in both the SPÖ and ÖVP worry it would only further strengthen the FPÖ.

Corrosive coalition

Despite its large majority in parliament, the grand coalition has had a corrosive effect on the country’s democracy, critics say, driving voters tired of centrist compromises to the political extremes.

That effect has most benefited the FPÖ, which first gained international notice, some would say infamy, in the 1990s under Jörg Haider, its charismatic leader whose slick image and camera-ready soundbites helped define contemporary European populism.

With Haider at the helm, the FPÖ finished second in a 1999 parliamentary election after an ugly anti-immigrant campaign. He forged a coalition with the third-placed ÖVP, agreeing to grant the center-right party the chancellorship.

That concession did nothing to temper the international reaction. Austria’s EU partners, then numbering 14, imposed bilateral diplomatic sanctions.

Current FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache has vowed not to repeat what many in his party regard as Haider’s mistake of bargaining away the chancellery in 1999.

Yet the FPÖ’s aspiration to finish first and nominate one of their own to the chancellorship may temper the party’s appeal. Many voters, even if they generally agree with the FPÖ, may not be ready to give one of its leaders the keys to power. A similar reluctance helped thwart Marine Le Pen’s presidential bid in France.

Like Le Pen, Strache is an aggressive politician. While his no-holds-barred style may work in opposition, it’s a more difficult match with the position of chancellor, a role that requires diplomatic finesse.

The reservations about Strache are reflected in his approval ratings, with just 18 percent of Austrians supporting him for the top job, according to a poll published this month by the daily Der Standard.

The SPÖ’s Kern and the ÖVP’s Kurz are vastly more popular, suggesting the coming campaign is likely to turn into a personality contest between the two.

Kern versus Kurz

Kern, who took over as chancellor a year ago, is a former business executive whose calm demeanor and experience have earned him a reputation as a safe pair of hands.

But in Kurz, Kern faces a political juggernaut whose meteoric rise to the top of his conservative party has won him many admirers beyond the ÖVP’s traditional base. Though just 30 years old, Kurz has proved to be a skilled political tactician. He laid the groundwork for his ascension to his party’s leadership for months.

In the end, he not only got the job but convinced party bosses to give him sweeping authority over strategy and personnel, a major break with tradition.

While for many Austrians the vote will come down to a choice between Kern and Kurz, the more important question may be which of the two is more likely to pursue a coalition with the FPÖ.

If history is any guide, it would be Kurz. The ÖVP broke the taboo of governing with the populists in 2000 and there’s no reason to think they wouldn’t do it again.

The SPÖ ruled out cooperating with the FPÖ for decades but has recently done so at the provincial level. Still, much of the SPÖ's leadership remains opposed to a national coalition with the populists.

Nonetheless, Kern has so far refused to rule it out. Instead, the Social Democrats are working on a "catalog of criteria" the FPÖ must meet before they would agree to consider cooperation.

Many former socialist voters have switched to the populists, especially in traditional strongholds like Vienna. Kern, eager to stop the bleeding in his own party, believes setting strict conditions for partnership could be a way to adapt to the reality that a deal with the FPÖ may represent his best chance to break the cycle of grand coalitions.

The discussion reflects a broader dilemma Europe's mainstream parties are likely to face in the age of populism: Is cooperation with far-right parties, under strict conditions, the least bad option? Jan-Werner Müller, a political scientist at Princeton University who has written extensively about populism, says laying out criteria for cooperation as the SPÖ is planning could make it more difficult for populists to claim they are being shut out of the political process by the elites — a common refrain.

"From a more democratic theory point of view, it might not be a bad idea to say 'look, we don't exclude you for ever and ever, we're not saying you're all evil people and your voters are all deplorables, but if you really want to come to power with us, this is what you're going to have to do,'" Müller said. "In all likelihood, they're not going to comply, but if you do this, matters become more transparent for voters."