Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks during a caucus night rally, Monday, Feb. 1, 2016, in Des Moines, Iowa. Cruz sealed a victory in the Republican Iowa caucuses, winning on the strength of his relentless campaigning and support from his party's diehard conservatives.(AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

By Michael Collins of the Knoxville News Sentinel

WASHINGTON — On paper, the idea seemed simple enough.

If a group of Southern states held their primaries on the same day and chose a date early in the elections process, they'd get a lot more visibility — and possibly more influence — in selecting the parties' nominees for president.

Some analysts even suggested moving near the front of the voting line might give the region's Republicans the power to pick a conservative nominee, since voters in the South tend to tilt toward the right.

Taking part in the so-called "SEC primary" has given Tennessee visibility. All five of the Republicans still in the race have campaigned in the state over the past week. On the Democratic side, front-runner Hillary Clinton held a rally in Nashville on Sunday.

But in a bizarre election cycle that has defied conventional wisdom again and again, Tuesday's primaries could produce another head-scratcher.

The seven Southern states that will vote on Tuesday could, in fact, help permanently shape the race — by solidifying New York real estate mogul Donald Trump's position as the GOP front-runner and seriously wounding, perhaps fatally, the two Southern candidates still standing, U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas.

"These innovations have a way of backfiring," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

A Bloomberg Politics poll released last week showed Trump with a sizable lead in the Southern states voting on March 1, or Super Tuesday. Trump was backed by 37 percent of likely Republican voters in the seven states surveyed, while Rubio and Cruz were tied at 20 percent.

In all, a dozen states will vote on Tuesday, half of them in the South — hence the "SEC primary" title. On the Republican side, 595 delegates will be awarded (1,237 are needed to capture the GOP nomination). For the Democrats, 1,004 delegates are at stake, with 2,382 needed for nomination.

Tennessee Republicans will award 58 delegates as the result of Tuesday's elections. If no candidate receives at least 67 percent of the vote, the delegates will be awarded proportionally. Tennessee Democrats will award 44 delegates on a proportional basis.

Rubio and Cruz need to win some of the states voting on Tuesday if they are to stand any chance of capturing the nomination, Sabato said.

"A bunch of close seconds might make a difference," he said, "but the presidential process does not award silver and bronze medals. It's only gold. I know you can get delegates (without finishing first). But in the end, you actually have to win. Placing second isn't good enough."

Trump won three of the four states that already have held Republican primaries or caucuses.

"If Trump keeps up his head of steam — and there's no guarantee he will — he could come out of March 1 with even more momentum," said Haley Barbour, former Mississippi governor and former chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Cruz will probably win his home state of Texas, Sabato said, but not by a large enough margin to give him the momentum he will need going forward. Rubio is in an even more precarious position. Polls show him losing to Trump in Florida, his home state.

In many ways, Sabato said, Tuesday's primary is reminiscent of the first Super Tuesday election in 1988. At the time, Southern Democrats thought setting their primaries on the same date might give them more influence and could result in the nomination going to a moderate candidate.

But a competitive race ended up dashing those hopes. Jesse Jackson won the Deep South, while native son Al Gore carried Tennessee and several other states. Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, a liberal, ended up winning the nomination.

This year, "the two Southerners could end up being hurt by the primary that was designed to help them, just as Al Gore was not propelled to the nomination as the founders of the original Super Tuesday intended," Sabato said.

Michael Collins is the News Sentinel's Washington correspondent. His weekly Tennessee in D.C. column highlights Volunteer State lawmakers, causes and connections. Contact him at 202-408-2711 or michael.collins@jmg.com.