Can a Red Wave Actually Happen?

The midterms are right around the corner and political pundits everywhere are sounding off about the most likely outcomes. And despite the feeling that Democrats are about to regain majorities, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Republicans can maintain their stronghold. Here’s What the Democrats Need to Do

It’s hard to believe that we’re already nearing the halfway point of President Donald Trump’s first term in the White House. But November 6 is quickly approaching, which means it’s once again election season. While midterm elections rarely get the hype and turnout that presidential elections do, they’re arguably just as important -- this year especially. If the Republicans can keep control, President Trump will be able to keep up the momentum he’s gradually built over the last 18-plus months. But if the Democrats regain majorities in either the House or the Senate, the tides would begin to change. In the Senate, the Republicans currently hold a 51 to 49 lead. There are 35 seats up for grabs this year, of which 26 are held by Democrats. Considering that they need to gain two seats in order to take control, the Democrats face an uphill battle. They’ll essentially need a clean sweep -- plus two additional seats. The problem for the Democrats is that they have to defend ten seats in states that Trump won in 2016. On top of that, there aren’t very many opportunities to take seats from Republicans. The best chance the left has of regaining some control in Washington is to reclaim the House. They need to flip 24 seats here, which is neither unprecedented nor uncommon. “There have been swings of 24 seats or more in half of the midterm elections since 1994,” Jasmine C. Lee writes for the New York Times. “The last time Democrats took the House with that kind of swing was the 2006 midterm election, when they picked up 32 seats. In 2010, as the Tea Party movement against President Obama’s policies shifted the political landscape, Republicans took control of the House by flipping 64 seats. They have held the chamber ever since.” All 435 House seats are up for grabs this year, with more than 10 percent of them considered highly competitive (tossups or slight leans towards one party). Most pundits are predicting the Republicans hold on to their narrow lead in the Senate, while the Democrats regain control in the House -- albeit by a slight margin. So the idea of a red wave or blue wave doesn’t seem all that likely. However, as history has shown, it’s never smart to postulate the impossible. And while the blue version is certainly more probable, don’t count out a fiery red wave. A Red Wave is Still Possible… And Here’s Why Just as the Democrats need a lot to go right to facilitate a blue wave, the Republicans need a perfect storm of sorts. While some are more likely than others, here are a few of the reasons why a red wave is possible. The Economy Continues to Thrive The left can scream about Russia until they lose their voices, but most Americans frankly don’t care. The majority see it as much ado about nothing. (A recent poll of Americans on both sides of the political fence reveals that Russia’s alleged involvement in the recent election isn’t even one of the eight issues Americans care most about. Even the broad issue of ethics and morality is viewed as more important.) Americans care about concrete issues -- ones that impact their daily lives in tangible ways. And what’s more tangible than the state of the economy? Trump’s economy continues to thrive, which has been catalytic in his growing approval rating. As economist Chuck Jones explains, GDP growth is up, the S&P 500 is soaring, unemployment rates are at record lows, millions of jobs are being added, hourly wages are up, and people are happy. Voters who are on the fence won’t want to rock the boat -- which bodes well for Republicans. Republicans Have Mastered Grassroots Campaigning Trump won the 2016 election as a result of grassroots campaigning. Sure, he was backed by millions of dollars, but it wasn’t the money that earned him the victory -- it was the way in which his campaign swept through the nation and moved individual people to become part of a larger collective. While Democrats spend a lot of time campaigning based on identity politics, their policies and campaigns are ironically very individualistic and divisive. Republicans, on the other hand, have grasped the significance of taking a collective focus and using words like “we” and “us,” rather than “me” or “them.” If Republicans are to win big in November, it’ll be the direct result of strategic grassroots campaigning. Simple things like printing and distributing flyers or hosting community events all count. They cut through the BS that oozes from campaign commercials and involve the very people who control the outcomes -- the voters. The Democrats Have No Platform When you look at Republicans, it’s pretty clear what they’re fighting for right now. They want safer borders, a stronger Department of Defense, and true freedom of speech. When you look at Democrats, it isn’t clear what they want. Can you name an issue that the Democrats are running on without using Trump’s name? All they care about is Trump this and Trump that. They have no platform to stand on. They’ve become so hardened against the right that they’ve actually begun to turn on themselves. The left seems to have lost all reason, with key party leaders going so far as to say that America was never great to begin with. In the words of Fox News host Tucker Carlson, “Trump has totally corroded their own standards.” No matter what year it is or who controls Washington, it’s hard to win a midterm without a solid platform. Only Time Will Tell Again, it isn’t very likely that a blue wave or red wave will sweep the nation in November. It’s far more probable that the Republicans will hold the Senate and the Democrats will put up a fight for the House. But, if a red wave does happen, you can bet the three factors outlined here will come into play.