As Rep. Eric Swalwell nears a decision on running for president, he could set off a scramble among East Bay politicians hoping to move up the political ladder.

There’s a lot riding on his choice — one that could provide a rare opportunity to fill an open congressional seat. If Swalwell decides not to run for re-election in his heavily Democratic congressional district, the race to succeed him could include multiple state legislators, local officials and a Hayward councilwoman who’s already being compared to progressive phenom Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Swalwell, who has become a frequent visitor to Iowa and other early primary states over the last two years, has said he’ll make a decision on running for president by the end of this month — although he would likely wait to announce a bid until early April so he doesn’t have to file a campaign finance statement until the following quarter.

The fourth-term congressman has also said he won’t run for president and seek re-election simultaneously. But his political allies insist he has some wiggle room: If he runs for the White House and his campaign hasn’t taken off by the time of California’s December candidate filing deadline, he could drop out and run for re-election to Congress instead.

“If I’m in the presidential race beyond the filing deadline for the House, even though I can file for both, I won’t,” he said in a recent interview. “So if I’m in the race at that point, I’m going to stay running for president.”

Even with that caveat, the potential of an open seat is attracting attention from ambitious East Bay pols. The 15th district covers a swath of southern Alameda and Contra Costa counties, including Hayward, Union City, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Livermore, Dublin, San Ramon and parts of San Leandro and Fremont.

The highest-profile potential contender so far is State Sen. Bob Wieckowski, a Fremont Democrat who several Bay Area politicos said had been quietly making moves toward a possible run. A former assemblyman and Fremont council member, Wieckowski has been representing the area in Sacramento since 2010. Earlier in his career, he worked on Capitol Hill for former Bay Area congressman Don Edwards.

“I was just re-elected to represent the 10th State Senate District and I am devoting my time and energy to representing my constituents by focusing on reforming mandatory arbitration, protecting consumers and building more affordable housing,” Wieckowski said in a statement. “If ultimately Congressman Swalwell decides to not file for re-election, I will consider it then.”

Wieckowski’s senate district covers 60.6 percent of the population in Swalwell’s congressional district, according to an analysis of Census data. He lives in Fremont, about two miles outside the congressional district’s border, but members of Congress aren’t required to live in the districts they represent.

The senator could face questions about a former aide in his office who sued the Senate alleging she had been fired in retaliation after reporting being sexually assaulted by another legislative staffer — a case that resulted in a $350,000 settlement, the largest paid out by the legislature in recent memory. The aide’s lawsuit didn’t allege that Wieckowski personally knew about her report of sexual assault when she was fired. His office declined to comment on the case, referring questions to Senate leadership.

Another possibility is Assemblyman Rob Bonta, who’s focused on issues like criminal justice reform over his six years in Sacramento. But Bonta lives in Alameda, significantly farther outside the district than Wieckowski.

“It’s way too premature for me to be making any decisions,” Bonta said. “Mr. Swalwell’s doing a great job, he’s on TV every night fighting for our values and holding the president and the administration accountable.”

An open seat race could also attract many local officials from around the district, including Hayward City Council member Aisha Wahab.

A 31-year-old former foster child who became the first Afghan-American elected official in the country when she won her council seat last year (a distinction she shares with a New Hampshire state legislator), Wahab has pushed for policies like raising the minimum wage, expanding rent control and training city police officers to de-escalate confrontations. She’s also ruffled feathers in Hayward politics, and has drawn comparisons to Ocasio-Cortez.

“With the growth in our district, there’s a lot of opportunity and definitely a lot of desire for new voices,” Wahab said in an interview. “However I could have the most impact in my local community is really what I’m interested in. I leave all doors open.”

Longtime Alameda County Supervisor Scott Haggerty said he had considered running for the district if Swalwell ran for president but decided against it. “The climate there in D.C. is just so toxic,” he said.

Republicans’ best hope for the race also appears to be bowing out for now. Former GOP Assemblywoman Catharine Baker, who narrowly lost a hotly contested re-election race last year in a district that includes the Tri-Valley region, said she isn’t eyeing the seat.

Related Articles Is Kamala Harris the Democrats’ secret to stopping Trump’s Supreme Court nominee?

California fires bring Kamala Harris back home for first visit as Dems’ VP nominee

As election draws nearer, Biden assembles legal team

Charges, sanctions revive specter of Russian interference in presidential election

Opinion: Christians must fight Trump attempt to monopolize faith “I love our community and know I will be staying very much involved and in service to it, but I do not have any plans to run for CD15 should Eric not run for re-election,” she said in a text message.

Several local observers called Baker, who has a history of winning support from across the aisle, the top GOP option. Democrats in the district hold a registration advantage of almost 30 percentage points over Republicans.

If Swalwell doesn’t run again, “I think it’s wide open,” said Assemblyman Bill Quirk, D-Hayward. “The person who can win is the person who can raise the money, work hard, and get to know the people of the district.”

One name to cross off the list of potential congressional candidates is Quirk himself. “My wife would shoot me,” he joked.