Insider: Unlike many bubble teams, IU handles its business

CHICAGO -- It is a beautiful, sun-bathed day here in Chicago, and Indiana has every right to enjoy it.

The Hoosiers might just have locked up their place in this year's NCAA tournament.

No, beating Northwestern does not add a quality win to the resume. All it really guarantees is that you've dodged the last potential pothole on your way to Selection Sunday.

But unlike the Hoosiers, who made easy work of their task with a 71-56 win Thursday, bubble teams across the country stumbled.

Illinois lost to Michigan. Texas A&M lost to Auburn. Ole Miss lost, as did Old Dominion, Texas and Miami (those last two might be hurting the most, having missed real opportunities to grab a quality victory).

General wisdom suggested Indiana entered this week in the NCAA tournament, but barely. The Hoosiers needed to beat Northwestern, and they also needed some of the teams behind them, hoping to dislodge them from the bottom of the at-large field, to lose.

Both of those things happened.

"Almost there," our resident bracketologist, Shelby Mast, wrote along with his most recent prediction. "A win over Maryland locks you in. With a close loss, Sunday will be tense. My gut says you're probably safe."

So that's what Indiana plays for today -- guaranteed safety. Beat Maryland for the second time this season and you're in the field. Even without a win, the Hoosiers should breathe a little easier this morning.

The Hoosiers have four RPI top 50 wins, and four RPI top 100 wins, with just one loss outside the top 100. Coach Tom Crean was asked Thursday if he thought that would be enough.

"I don't know," Crean said. "I would hope so."

For what it's worth: I chatted with Mast last night, and he said a 9-seed is probably Indiana's realistic ceiling at this point. You'll notice in these projections that the Hoosiers are still pretty low, still in the play-in game in two cases.

Thursday's win wasn't one to improve positioning. Northwestern doesn't carry that heft. But it shored up IU's NCAA tournament resume on a night when several other bubble teams stumbled, some badly.

For Indiana, Thursday night was more about what it didn't do, relative to other bubble teams, rather than what it did do.

Here's a look at a few relevant projections:

Shelby Mast, BracketWAG/The Star: No. 11 seed in Louisville, playing Utah

Jerry Palm, CBS: Play-in game, against Ole Miss

Joe Lunardi, ESPN: Play-in game, against BYU

Stewart Mandel, Fox Sports: No. 10 seed in Seattle, playing San Diego State

Patrick Stevens, Syracuse.com: Not a projection, but Stevens writes "Indiana thus avoids a devastating loss; it either solidifies its status with a victory over Maryland or goes home with a defeat that won't hurt its profile."

PROBABLE LINEUPS FOR TONIGHT

Probables and game information:

WHO: No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 2 Maryland.

WHEN: 6:30 p.m. today.

WHERE: The United Center, Chicago.

TV: The Big Ten Network.

RADIO: WIBC (93.1 FM)/IU Radio Network

Probable starters

Indiana: Yogi Ferrell, Robert Johnson, James Blackmon Jr., Troy Williams, Collin Hartman.

Maryland: Melo Trimble, Richaud Pack, Dez Wells, Jake Layman, Damonte Dodd.

• I'm sure you noticed that Hanner Mosquera-Perea isn't listed among starters.

There's no new information on him today. We reported last night that he had re-aggravated a right knee injury and that he would be evaluated further this morning.

That knee injury, which sidelined him for nearly a month, was a kneecap injury. Given its severity the first time around, and how serious it appeared Thursday night, I would caution against expecting him to play against the Terrapins.

We will, keep you apprised of any updates.

• Maryland could go smaller with its starting lineup tonight, but coach Mark Turgeon went with Dodd against the Hoosiers in College Park on Feb. 11, and in Bloomington on Jan. 22.

Dodd only played 13 and 10 minutes, respectively, in those two games, a casualty of the Terrapins trying to match up with Indiana's small-ball approach. But he started both games, so he gets the nod in tonight's probables.

• There might not be a more in-form team in the league than the Terrapins, who have won seven in a row since losing heavily at Iowa in early February. That stretch includes wins over Rutgers, Penn State, Nebraska (twice) and Michigan. But it also includes a home victory against league champions Wisconsin, and it began with the 68-66 win against the Hoosiers in College Park.

Follow Star reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.