After oil price rallied by more than 30% since the beginning of the year, the trend may remain in the next few weeks because of the combination of a number of bullish factors related to global oil supplies.

In the coming weeks, a number of geopolitical events may lead to a new appreciation of the crude oil, which will remain a trend over the next few months. These events, combined with the tightening of the oil market, could further increase prices that are highly sensitive to any kind of supply fluctuations, especially with regard to the policy of production cuts, which the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies voted at the end of 2018.

The experts recognize the fact that the oil market may be affected by a substantial supply disruption.

The three candidate countries for the role of such a destabilizing factor are Iran, Venezuela and Libya, all members of OPEC and all the exemptions from the voted cuts by the cartel. Their production since the beginning of the year has shown strong signs of volatility or a decrease in yield.

According to Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, Libya is the state that represents the most serious risk for oil markets. Earlier this month, General Khalifa Haftar launched a massive offensive with his Libyan National Army against the Tripoli government, triggering a series of serious domestic political shocks that are also expected to have an impact on domestic oil production.

According to Cailin Birch, an economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Iran is the country that will most likely influence the growth of oil prices. The US’s decision to end waivers for countries to import Iranian oil on Monday, part of the Trump administration’s effort to drive Iran’s exports to zero, coupled with OPEC’s production cuts.

However, many analysts believe that the United States will not be particularly focused on Iran, as a possible “zeroing” of oil sales from the country will push prices even higher.

Other experts point to Venezuela as a potential driver for price rising, as US sanctions against Nicholas Maduro’s regime continue to tighten, curtailing production in the country. If Washington wants to continue with the measures against Caracas, it will probably give up exerting pressure on Tehran to avoid a drastic rise in prices.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices will not exceed 80 USD per barrel.

Citigroup, on the other hand, assumes that prices can still cross this limit.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch points out that Brent may grow more expensive than market analyzes as the new regulations adopted by the International Maritime Organization on reducing sulfur in fuels on vessels that from 2020 will switch to low-sulfur fuels, will lead to serious supply disruptions by the end of the year.