The AFL is also expected to benefit from the networks' desperation to secure their future, although the southern code is a step ahead of the NRL in guaranteeing its own, with a staff of 150 engaged in plans, concurrent with the rollout of the national broadband network, to produce games on AFL.com. The intense bidding for rights to both codes, with the AFL's expiring a year earlier, is producing very complicated scenarios, with the most likely being Ten winning a game in both the NRL and AFL. The NRL's program cover could see a Ten game on Thursday night, a Nine game on Friday night, three Fox Sports games on Saturday, two Nine games on Sunday and a Fox Sports Monday night game. This would mean the end of Nine's Friday night double-header, which sees one game being shown live in the Sydney market at the same time as another is shown in Queensland. Because of Queensland's entrenched parochialism, demonstrated by the bias to the northern teams (Broncos, Cowboys, Titans), as well as the Storm, Nine's Friday night game would have a Maroons flavour.

Nine's two Sunday games would be played live on Sunday afternoon and twilight, separated by the only other guarantees of ratings success, the nightly news or reality shows. This schedule would not interfere with Fox Sports' Super Saturday, nor their Monday Night Football, which are essential to retaining subscribers. Fox Sports would be surrendering its early Sunday afternoon game, effectively to Ten, and would seek something in return if the Rupert Murdoch-owned network is to pay more for less product. It may demand a simulcast of all eight NRL games, as it currently does with Channel Seven and the AFL's nine-game coverage. If Fox Sports was to lose a game in either NRL or AFL, it would pass it only to Ten, in which it now has a 15 per cent share, subject to ACCC approval.

Global Media and Sport's Colin Smith said: "The risks would be too great to surrender additional coverage to either of the other free-to-air incumbents. If Nine had more exclusive NRL or Seven had more exclusive AFL, Foxtel would lose subscribers, which is exactly what they must avoid. "Foxtel/Fox Sports passing over one game per code to Ten in its weakened position, both in terms of TV ratings and financial performance, would be far less detrimental, especially if it is simulcast." Nine would object to a simulcast but if Foxtel pays a hefty premium to get the rich rights deal over the line, it may agree. Fox Sports, which is determined to do the best deal for itself independent of any future tie ups with Ten, will likely insist Ten receives the last pick of the eight games on offer per week. The NRL will not want its Thursday night opening game beginning with a historically low-rating match, such as the Raiders, Knights or Warriors, but it has studied betting spreads in matches and is convinced it is producing the most even competition ever.

Nor would the AFL want its weekly coverage to begin with the Giants, Suns or Lions, although digital channels allow networks to broadcast games on their main channel to its primary market, while another program is shown on a digital channel. For this reason, Nine's interest in AFL, or Seven's in NRL can't be discounted. Nine has indicated it will bid for a Sunday afternoon AFL game, to be shown in the south on its main channel and in northern states on its digital channel, flip-flopping with its NRL game. However, Fox Sports would strongly resist moves by Nine into AFL territory and Seven into NRL land, just as Nine will never surrender State of Origin to Seven. "These will be the richest rights ever for both codes, but also the most complicated. If the ACCC do not approve News Corporation's investment in Ten, there may be no Ten," Smith said.

"This would leave only two FTA networks and Foxtel bidding, depressing the price and the investment both codes can make in their games, ultimately to the detriment of the viewer."