There is certainly a price at which you have to take a Fielder signing seriously. But it is NOWHERE close to >$200M and it's not for nine or 10 years.

One big point gets missed. The Nats may be deciding BETWEEN Fielder and Ryan Zimmerman. One OR the other. Because if you have Fielder, Z'man and Werth on the roster, then they'll be making >$60M for just those three players by the '14 season. So be careful what you wish for.

Remember, Nats payroll last year was $68M, only up $5M from ’05 when MLB had the team. The average Lerner Payroll has been $58M. And, right now, they are only obligated to $42.5M for ’12. That will grow, probably by $25M as players like Morse and Lannan are resigned or go to arbitration. But it looks to me like the Nats payroll may be very close to ’11 if they don’t sign any more free agents of consequence. That’s fairly amazing.

The Lerners leery are of spending before the revenue is actually in hand. They seldom speculate on what is "probably" going to happen __with more $ from MASN and more attendance. They have to see it first. I nag them. But they have 3-billion reasons to think it's smart business. Are they right?



Werth is due $20M in '14 and $21M in '15-'17. Fielder is going to get >$20M-a-year __it's just a matter of how much over $20M and for how many years. If you want to guesstimate RZim, look at Tulowitzki's deal out through age 35 with five years at $20M/yr and figure Z'man will get maybe 85% of that.



What are the implications for fans that want the Nats to have the best chance to maximize this five-year "window __'12 through '16__ when Strasburg is under team control? Even if Nats draw >30K/game will the Lerners go beyond a $90-to-$100M payroll? Or $110M in a max go-for-it-year. Few teams do unless they have a big and ardent fan base.



When Strasburg and Z'mann become arbitration eligible "everybody" is going to want the Nats to try to do what they did with Z'man __that is, make sure they get eight years, not just six, out of him before he can be a free agent.

Except for Boras clients (like SS), who usually go FA after six years, most players want that big insurance policy vs. injury just as RZim (and Markakis) did w his $45M/5yr deal before Opening Day of '09. That may be the situation with Jordan Z'mann, under team control through '15, before the '13 or '14 season. What about Gio Gonzalez? Just let him walk after '15 when he's only 30?



A lot of you will want to see Mike Morse (a FA after '13) stay in town if he keeps hitting. And, in 2-3 years, you may want Ramos, Espinosa, Storen kept happy and here. What if Rendon, Purke, make it? I realize you "can't keep 'em all." But if you have huge Werth-Z'man-Fielder obligations through '17 and big Prince and Zim deals out to '18-'19 it is going to impact a LOT of decisions for a long time. That $21-to-25M/yr for Prince can go to a lot of players in a lot of ways for a lot of years. Or it can all go to Prince. (Or much of it to RZim.)



IMO, they won't sign Fielder unless it's so cheap they just can't help themselves. It causes too many problems in too many different ways for too long. At, say $126M for 6 yrs, you might HAVE to do it. But the price won't get that low, imo. What about $150M for seven years? I’d say the top figure that still stays in a sane world is what they offered Teixeira: $180M for eight years. Teixeira was a year older but a gold glove 1st baseman, a switch hitter and was into fitness.



What’s the worst case in the current off-season drama? They don't sign Fielder and then they don't get Ryan Z'man extended by Opening Day.



When does the “clock” start on worrying about Z’man extension?