Romney’s chances dwindle to the risk of a systemic error in the polls if he can’t close the gap over the next ten days. Ask Michael Bennet or Harry Reid about whether that's possible, but one argument attempting to explain why one should expect systemic error in Ohio is that the polls are "oversampling" Ohio’s Democratic-leaning early voters, who have constituted as much as 40 percent of recent surveys, even though Michael McDonald’s invaluable US Elections Project’s Early Voting page shows that just 985,000 of Ohio’s voters have cast ballots—or about 18 percent of the 2008 electorate.

But even though all but one recent Ohio poll shows a 2-5 point race, the same polls show early voters ranging from perhaps as low as 20 to a high of 32 percent of the electorate. Although the Time breakdown is unweighted, they appear to show voters early voters around just 20 percent of the electorate. What poll shows 31 percent? Rasmussen--the closest poll. This suggests that random sampling, not systemic bias, is influencing the results. After all, Rasmussen shows a tied race with 31 percent of the electorate voting early and voting for Obama by 31 points—they get it back to a tie by showing Romney doing far better among Election Day voters than anyone else.

Of course, the average poll still shows early voters at 26 percent of the electorate, and that might seem too high. Part of the issue might be the 800,000 outstanding absentee ballots that have been sent to voters but haven’t yet been returned. Many of these voters may have “voted” in the presidential race by filling out their ballots, even if they haven’t returned the ballot. I don’t know how many Ohio voters would have filled out a ballot and say tell a pollster that they voted before it's submitted, it’s worth noting that the polls usually ask “have you voted” without further elaboration. What percentage of the '08 Ohio electorate has received ballots or voted in-person? 28 percent.

Speaking from experience as a Washington State voter where elections are conducted almost entirely by mail, I can say that I repeatedly told people that I “voted” in the presidential race since Tuesday, even though I completed my ballot yesterday still haven’t submitted it. After learning about this controversy, I asked a few fellow Washingtonians if they voted and they said yes. Then I asked whether they submitted their ballot, and all but one said no. So it’s possible.