THAILAND’S political battles, slow-burning for years, are raging again. On November 25th tens of thousands of demonstrators linked to the main opposition Democrat Party marched on key government institutions, including army headquarters and television stations. They stormed ministries. Pictures of protesters armed with whistles and brandishing the Thai flag, gathered around a conference table in the finance ministry, were splashed over the front pages of the morning papers. By the afternoon of November 26th, they had moved on to protest outside the ministry of interior (now firmly guarded against intrusions). That afternoon, the country's criminal court approved a warrant for the arrest of the protest leader, Suthep Thaugsuban, a former deputy prime minister, for storming the finance ministry. It leaves some pondering whether Thailand is in essence ungovernable. The government of Yingluck Shinawatra, the prime minister, has been watching silently, but has extended the use of internal securities laws to the entire capital and a neighbouring province. As night fell, a portable diesel-run floodlight was brought in to illuminate the protesters’ trophy. Hundreds entered the building to inspect a government institution from the inside. Two hundred yards down the road mobile toilets were brought into position, as though to make the point that if efforts to topple the government failed, it would not be due to logistical details. Outside the budget bureau of the finance ministry, protesters chanted “Yingluck, get out, Yingluck, get out”.

The mass protests, the biggest since 2010, are the latest round in an escalating battle between the Bangkok-centred establishment and the family clan of Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire former prime minister, and his sister Yingluck, the current prime minister. A no-confidence debate began in parliament on November 26th—an almost certainly futile bid by the opposition to oust Ms Yingluck’s Pheu Thai government, which has a thumping majority in parliament. To opposition Democrats and their royalist supporters, Mr Thaksin is a totally unacceptable figure. Among the paraphernalia on sale at the Democracy Monument, where anti-Thaksin supporters have been gathering for weeks, are red foot mats with pictures of the Shinawatra siblings. Mr Suthep resigned his seat, along with a bunch of Democrat MPs, to lead a campaign of “civil disobedience”. The Democrat Party itself, stuffed with politicians prone to lecture about the rule of law, is unsure to what extent it wants to be associated with an uprising that appears almost designed to provoke casualties.

The opposition has dealt two damaging blows to Ms Yingluck’s efforts to reset the country’s democracy to its state prior to 2006, when a coup removed Ms Yingluck’s brother from power. A fortnight ago the opposition effectively killed a controversial amnesty bill that would have paved the return of Mr Thaksin from self-imposed exile in Dubai. It would also have granted amnesty to everybody else caught up in the political conflicts since 2004, including politicians and security forces. The bill infuriated Mr Thaksin’s red-shirted supporters because it would have absolved those who ordered an army crackdown in 2010 that killed 90 of them.

Then, on November 20th, Thailand’s constitutional court declared unlawful Ms Yingluck’s plans to make the Senate (the upper house of parliament) a fully elected body instead of partially appointed, as decreed by the military following the coup. The ruling was a major victory for the opposition—a fully elected Senate would have given her party sweeping powers through control of both houses of parliament. The court's decision to veto the will of a democratically elected parliament infuriated the government, which sees the verdict as further evidence that the court is acting on behalf of a conservative elite that believes it is entitled to rule the country.

The king’s 86th birthday is on December 5th, and both sides of the political divide claim legitimacy bestowed by loyalty to the monarchy. The opposition has threatened to use lèse-majesté laws to bring down Yingluck and her government—the idea being that by submitting an unlawful bill to the king she violated the (unwritten) principle that the king must never be put in a compromising position. Ms Yingluck’s courtiers have retorted that the judges of the constitutional court violated lèse-majesté laws by ruling on the legality of a bill that was awaiting signature by the palace.

Moving between the protest sites of the anti-Thaksin protesters, in the west of the city, and the base of red-shirted supporters of the Shinawatras at Rajamangala stadium 15 kilometres to the east, an observer may not even have noticed the ongoing battle for control of Thailand’s democratic institutions.

The red-shirt leaders say they will push for a new constitutional amendment, which would allow the formation of a drafting committee to rewrite the entire constitution. The move to amend the constitution is a test of the judiciary’s power. After the 2006 coup, the court ruled against two pro-Thaksin administrations, effectively toppling them from power. The Democrat Party has moved to have 300-odd MPs who voted for the amnesty bill impeached by the National Anti-Corruption Commission. At this point, impeachment of enough MPs to trigger dissolution of the house appears improbable. In any event, that would probably enable another pro-Thaksin party to come to power, and begin the process all over again.

The Rajamangla Sports Stadium is a fitting setting for the red-shirts who have come from the provinces to Bangkok. So far, they have largely remained spectators in the “People’s Revolution” called for by the establishment. The sale of red paraphernalia is swift—wall clocks with smiling faces of Mr Thaksin and Ms Yingluck are a favourite. The mood is upbeat. Some supporters are sporting shirts saying “We love the crown prince”. They confirm the worst inner fears of politicians and protesters at the other end of the city: that the palace—the institution that remains such an important part of the ongoing political manoeuvring but which cannot even be mentioned—may not share their utter distaste for Mr Thaksin forever.

(Picture credit: AFP)