For more than 50 years the Vatican’s relationship with China has been intractable. But if Pope Francis has his way, a deal to bridge what many believe is an insurmountable divide between the Roman Catholic church and the communist Chinese government could be announced within the next 30 days.

According to one person who has closely followed developments, the pope would like to seal a deal before the conclusion on 20 November of the Holy Year of Mercy, which was called by the pontiff to celebrate acts of forgiveness.

Any agreement that solves the thorniest issue between the two sides – the Vatican’s right to appoint its own bishops in China – would represent the most consequential diplomatic feat of the Francis’s papacy.

It would also spur a debate about whether Francis – a Jesuit who has always promoted the importance of “encounters” but has declined to meet the Dalai Lama – has been too willing to ignore concerns about human rights and religious freedom for the sake of furthering the Vatican’s own interests in a country that is officially atheist. While evangelical Christianity has seen explosive growth in China, Catholicism has lagged behind.

“For me, China has always been a reference point of greatness. A great country. But more than a country, a great culture, with an inexhaustible wisdom,” the pope told Asia Times this year.

Since his election in 2013, there have been subtle signs that the relationship between the Vatican and Beijing has warmed. There was the telegram Francis sent to President Xi Jinping as his papal plane flew in Chinese airspace on the way to Taiwan in 2014, and the gift of a silk print, symbolic of Christianity’s presence in China, that was reportedly given to the pope this month by a representative of Xi, though the accuracy of that story has not been confirmed.

Chinese Catholics are free to go to mass and attend church, but barred from proselytising. An “underground” Catholic church exists, and members and its clergy have faced persecution by authorities.

No one believes that negotiations between the two sides will lead to formal diplomatic relations, a move that would force the Vatican to break ties with Taiwan. Jeroom Heyndrickx, a Belgian priest who has championed the negotiations, said the talks were centred on whether the Vatican would be given permission to appoint its own bishops.

There is also a disagreement over the the fate of eight “illegal” bishops appointed by officials in China, some of whom have been excommunicated by the Vatican.



“There have been some efforts at dialogue in the past, but never so intensive and ongoing and with perseverance on both sides,” Heyndrickx said. “The situation is more hopeful now than it has been in 65 years.”

Reaching an initial agreement on the bishops could make it easier to tackle other issues, such as the fate of the China Catholic Patriotic Association, a state-controlled organisation that controls the church and appoints bishops.

Heyndrickx said negotiations between the Vatican and Beijing were set to recommence later this month. A preliminary agreement that was reportedly reached in August would allow the pope to choose bishops from candidates recommended by the CCPA.

Church sources have separately told Reuters that China is preparing to ordain at least two new bishops before the end of the year, and these appointments would have the blessing of the Vatican.

The most vocal critic against any such deal is Cardinal Joseph Zen, a former bishop of Hong Kong and critic of China’s human rights record. “It is unthinkable to leave the initial proposal in the hands of an atheist government who cannot possibly judge the suitability of a candidate to be a bishop,” he wrote in an article for AsiaNews in September.

The apparent warming of relations between Beijing and Vatican coincides with a controversial “cross-removal” campaign in eastern China. Communist party authorities have forced more than 1,200 churches in the heavily Christian region to remove the symbol. Zhang Kai, a prominent Christian lawyer, spent more than six months in secret detention after opposing the campaign.



John Allen, the editor of The Crux, a Catholic publication, said Francis – like his predecessors, Pope Benedict XVI and John Paul II – had signalled a willingness to address China’s concerns that the church would be hostile to the state if it was shown any latitude.

He said the Vatican was pursuing a “huge long-term interest” in its courting of China, which was controversial in some circles within the church. But the real difficulty in hammering out a deal was not resistance inside the Vatican but rather China’s objections.

“The problem is that Xi has a strong wing of the party apparatus that says if you give the Christians, and the Catholics in particular, an inch, they are going to take a mile. Ultimately this is about who controls the Catholic community. Is the primary loyalty to the state or the pope?,” Allen said.

Successive popes have had an answer to that question: it can be both. “But the Chinese to date are divided on whether that is true,” Allen said.

The difference between the current negotiations and previous talks is Francis himself. The first non-European pope is viewed as less political and more sympathetic to interests outside the US and Europe, experts say.

Francesco Sisci, a senior researcher at China Renmin University in Beijing, noted that Francis was the first pope to have his homilies translated in China.

“Of course, he is not a superstar, he is not as popular as a rock star, but he is known to the Chinese public and that is very different from other popes, who were totally unknown” Sisci said.



Richard McGregor, a China expert and author of The Party, said it was not clear why agreeing a deal with the Vatican would be a priority for senior officials. “There are lots of obstacles in the way of a genuine deal. At the same time, they have many other political priorities in the area of managing and keeping a lid on religion, so it is hard to see why China would compromise.”

While a deal would be a propaganda coup for Beijing and put pressure on Taiwan, McGregor said there were “fundamental issues of authority” at stake that would make it hard for the Vatican to demand any guarantees on control of the church in the mainland.

Pope Francis is said to have a special devotion to Mary, the “undoer of knots”. After brokering a deal that saw the US and Cuba restore diplomatic relations last year, the pontiff may find a breakthrough with China during the year of mercy a deal worth doing, no matter how big the knot.