April 12, 2017 will go down in cryptocurrency history as the first time Litecoin passed the 75% SegWit activation threshold. SegWit, a solution that Bitcoin Core developers developed to deal with transaction problems on that network, is now giving Litecoin a boost. The markets are rewarding Litecoin with gains, in a clear signal to the Bitcoin Community of what could happen if it just gets on board with SegWit. Nevertheless, today’s success belongs entirely to Litecoin, its community and its activist creator, Charlie Lee. Now Litecoin will have to sustain SegWit signaling at or above 75% for 2 whole weeks to lock the solution in and activate it.

Threats Against Litecoin SegWit Activation

This is where it gets tricky for the Litecoin network. There are reports of miners who are pooling resources together to prevent Litecoin SegWit activation. Just like their bitcoin counterparts, some Litecoin miners oppose SegWit. Although they don’t have the same degree of power over the network that the bitcoin miners have, some say these mining pools are increasing hash power to prevent SegWit activation.

Charlie Lee’s tweets explain how Litecoin SegWit activation will move forward to the next stage.

The two main suspects are LTC1BTC and Antpool which increased hash power to block SegWit, but could only manage to hold Litecoin SegWit activation back for a few days. If these miners and their allies wish to roll Litecoin SegWit activation back further, they will have to rally even more mining power over the next 2 weeks.

Litecoin Price Reflects SegWit’s Fate

NewsBTC is one of the most prominent media outlets that reported Antpool’s and LTC1BTC’s resistance to Litecoin SegWit activation. Its report came out on April 9th, which coincides with a dip in Litecoin prices. At the same time, Litecoin SegWit activation signaling fell from the 70% range it had achieved a few days earlier. There appears to be a correlation between the SegWit activation resistance efforts and the reports. On the other hand, there seems to be an even clearer correlation between the price of Litecoin and SegWit signaling on that network.

This 7 day chart shows how Litecoin SegWit activation and prices correlate. Chart courtesy of coinmarketcap.com.

Further Profits Soon?

If this latter correlation holds, investors may still be able to profit further from their Litecoin investments. The pattern shows that the markets will react to SegWit signaling over the next 2 weeks, and although SegWit activation has a good chance to succeed, nothing is guaranteed. This means some investors might actually sell their Litecoin in the coming days to lock their profits in and limit their exposure to SegWit activation risks.

This re-tweet from Charlie Lee shows how Litecoin trading volumes surpassed those of every other cryptocurrency on Poloniex on April 12th.

The other factor to consider is that the markets might have already priced Litecoin’s SegWit activation in, which means there might not be room for additional profits. On the other hand, Litecoin prices are still a long way off their all-time high. Some might look at that and conclude that Litecoin still has a lot of space to grow. Nevertheless, it is important to keep in mind that Litecoin hit its all-time high at a time when bitcoin dominated 90% of the cryptocurrency markets and its price increases attracted many more investors before the bubble burst. Nowadays, cryptocurrency markets are more diversified. This makes it more difficult for Litecoin to climb back to all-time highs.

Litecoin is Bitcoin’s Crystal Ball

Litecoin SegWit activation will however, serve as a test-case for bitcoin. In fact, Litecoin might well be bitcoin’s crystal ball, showing its community members that markets like SegWit. This might be the most valuable piece of information that investors can gather from the Litecoin SegWit activation effort. All eyes will be on Litecoin SegWit activation signaling for the next 2 weeks and on subsequent market reactions.