Shifting climate patterns in the Indian Ocean driven by global warming are likely to increase the frequency of “devastating” weather events for much of Australia, Indonesia and eastern Africa, a study led by Australian researchers has found.

While attention has focused on the prospect of an El Nino forming in the Pacific, a similar phenomenon may be under way in the Indian Ocean that could exacerbate dry and hot conditions for large areas of Australia.

A change in surface water temperatures on the Indian Ocean due to global warming could produce extreme weather events in Australia. Credit:Greg Wood

Tropical sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are becoming cool relative to those in the west.

Known as a positive-Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), such conditions typically mean less convection off north-western Australian and reduced rainfall in winter and spring for south-eastern and central Australia. Indonesia also tends to endure drought and bushfires while east Africa gets hit by floods.