The everyday commute in Hanoi is a test of endurance; it requires perseverance and concentration, and involves pollution, bizarre noises, and mysterious aromas. Traffic lights act more like loose guidelines for the flow of traffic, and with busy crowded streets, public buses are the most feared among bicyclists for their accelerator-happy feet.

Hanoi is responsible for more than 10% of Vietnam’s economic output and is home to 14% of the population. It’s a crowded city; its nine central districts have an average population density of 20,000 people/km2. By comparison, London’s nine most crowded boroughs have an average population density of 11,738 people/km2 (pdf).

Since Vietnam’s Doi Moi (renovation) policies of economic liberalisation began in 1986, its capital Hanoi has undergone multiple massive transformations. The most visible is Hanoi’s transportation sector, which shifted dramatically (pdf) from bicycle to motorbike and now to car over the last twenty years. In 1990, 80% of trips were made by bicycle, whereas in 2005, 97% were by motorcycle. According to the same study by the Institution for Transport Policy Studies, motorcycle usage will have decreased to 63% by 2050 due to the steady rise in car ownership.

Given this rapid shift, what does the future hold for transport in Hanoi? Increasing congestion, pollution, and inaccessibility, or a more liveable and sustainable environment?

Arve Hansen, research fellow at the Centre for Development and the Environment in Oslo, states that private car ownership in Vietnam is not only important for practical reasons but for cultural reasons as well; in a country with a per capita GDP of $1,900 and an average monthly salary of $185, it is a sign of immense wealth.

Addressing the current and impending issues of increasing car ownership are more complex than implementing a ban on cars. “The car is the ultimate object for distinction,” says Hansen. “Sure, a nice house is necessary, but it is not mobile. A car can be taken anywhere at any time. A car is distinction gone mobile.”

Car ownership is also a symbol of success in Beijing, China, and has resulted in a rapid increase in congestion, air pollution and traffic-related deaths. In response, Beijing is looking at ways to mitigate the negative social and environmental impacts of car use, including promoting bicycle use through personal ownership or bicycle-sharing programmes.

So how can Hanoi succeed in reducing car usage where Beijing has not? Jotte De Koning, a PhD researcher at TU Delft focusing on behavioural change and consumption in Vietnam, says that while status associated with car ownership, the positive attributes of freedom, saved-time and health can encourage bicycle use.

De Koning says: “Changes in public behaviour patterns occurred on a national scale in Holland in the 1970s through public campaigns, school curriculums, and incentives led by the government. Hanoi could work to establish government incentives to residents and businesses to promote more sustainable transportation.”

Luong Thu Thao, an urban planner and lecturer at the Hanoi University of Architecture adds that while there can be improvements to the current system, there are also some strong local government policies already in place in Hanoi, specifically the high rates of tax placed on car purchases and a reimbursement programme for citizens displaced by transportation and other planning projects.

The cities’ planning system also includes a feedback mechanism where notices of major projects are mailed to citizens and they are invited to send back their reactions. While Thao believes this system works better than in neighbouring countries in south-east Asia, she says “improvements to the public participation process could aid decisions towards a more sustainable transportation system”.

A degree of public participation is embedded in urban planning legislation in Hanoi, but how well it is implemented is questionable. Hanoi’s congested roads won’t clear overnight, but change will come from citizens and officials who see that they need to take action to avoid their city becoming an unliveable carpocalypse.

Corey Pembleton is a geographic informations systems analyst at Vietnam Cleaner Production Centre. Follow @pembletonc on Twitter.

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