By now, Sabres fans should know all about Victor Olofsson. He’s got the incredible upper-tier level shot that led him to scoring 30 goals in the AHL last season, as well as two more in six NHL games. While it took the 23-year-old winger longer to get called up to the NHL than some may have wanted last season, he spent his time in Rochester improving his ability to get open on the ice as well as working towards being a better two-way player.

Yet it will be a lot to ask of Olofsson for him to jump in and be an immediate impact player in 2019-20. We know there’s a drastic lack of depth on the wings for the Sabres, especially on the right. The left was addressed this summer with the signing of Marcus Johansson and the trade for Jimmy Vesey, but help is needed and Olofsson currently seems like the team’s best option to move into a full-time role.

We saw last season how tough it was for a 19-year-old Casey Mittelstadt to make the jump from college to an NHL role that required him to play second-line minutes, along with the two-way responsibilities that go along with playing center. Olofsson’s gap may not be as wide, but he’s still aware that there’s plenty of need for improvement.

“I can get stronger and just to be a little bit better in those dirty areas – get my shots off even when I have guys on me,” Olofsson said during development camp. “I’ve got a lot of work left to do, sure, but it’s a process too. I don’t have to rush anything and (can) just be patient.”

So what can we expect from Olofsson, who’ll be 24 years old on Thursday and has nearly 300 professional games under his belt (200 in the SHL)? One way to figure that out is through NHLe, a formula that predicts how a prospect’s production in their current league would translate to in the NHL. Rob Vollman, currently part of the Los Angeles Kings staff, had a helpful way to explain how it’s calculated.

Dobber Sports keeps an NHLe calculator on their site now and that’s where these Olofsson projections come from: Based on Olofsson’s 63 points in 66 AHL games, that computes to 37 NHL points. That probably makes you shudder, but it falls in line with his last season at Frolunda, in which he had 43 points in 50 games. That translates to 40 NHL points.

If Olofsson put 40 points up last season, that would’ve made him the fourth-highest scoring forward behind Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, and Sam Reinhart. He would have been the sixth-best scorer on the team, with Rasmus Dahlin and Rasmus Ristolainen ahead of him as well. Forty points can be spread out a lot of ways, but if it came in the form of 25 goals and 15 assists that’d do just fine. His whole career has been pretty balanced so a score line of 20-20-40 would make for a pretty good first full NHL season.

But Joe, he scored 30 goals in Rochester – we need goals in Buffalo. Please tell me he’ll score goals!

I know, I know. His output made me wonder just how many guys have scored 30 or more goals in the AHL over the past few seasons and how their careers went from that point. Is hitting that mark in your first or second AHL season conducive to NHL success? Results varied.

(Age, number of AHL season appearances in parenthesis; current NHL players bolded)

2018-2019

Carter Verhaeghe 34 (23, 5)

Alex Barre-Boulet 34 (21, 1)

Chris Mueller 33 (32, 12)

Zac Dalpe 33 (29, 11)

Sam Carrick 32 (26, 8)

Reid Boucher 31 (25, 8)

Riley Barber 31 (24, 4)

Daniel Carr 30 (27, 5)

Olofsson 30 (23, 1)

Mike Sgarbossa 30 (26, 7)

Anthony Greco 30 (25, 3)

Aleksi Saarela 30 (22, 3)

Joel L’Esperance 30 (23, 2)

Joe Gambardella 29 (in 50 games at 25, 3)

2017-2018

Valentin Zykov 33 (22, 3)

Chris Terry 32 (28, 9)

Daniel Sprong 32 (20, 1)

Eric Tangradi 31 (28, 8)

Nick Lappin 31 (25, 3)

Greg Carey 31 (28, 5)

2016-2017

Wade Megan 33 (26, 5)

Nicklas Jensen 32 (23, 6)

Rocco Grimaldi 31 (23, 3)

Pontus Aberg 31 (23, 3)

Chris Terry 30 (27, 8)

2015-2016

Frank Vatrano 36 (21, 1)

Chris Bourque 30 (30, 9)

Rookie leader: Vatrano

2014-2015

Teemu Pulkkinen 34 (23, 2)

Paul Thompson 33 (26, 5)

Shane Harper 32 (25, 6)

Andrew Agozzino 30 (24, 4)

Rookie leader: Daniel Carr 24 (23, 1)

2013-2014

Zach Boychuk 36 (24, 6)

Travis Morin 32 (30, 7)

Colton Sceviour 32 (24, 5)

Teemu Pulkkinen 31 (22, 1)

Ty Rattie 31 (20, 1)

Mike Hoffman 30 (24, 4)

Matt Puempel 30 (21, 1)

2012-2013

Tyler Johnson 37 (22, 2)

Matt Fraser 33 (22, 3)

Chad Kolarik 31 (27, 4)

Brett Connolly 31 (20, 1)

Jeremy Morin 30 (21, 3)

Ryan Hamilton 30 (27, 7)

Jamie Tardif 30 (28, 7)

There’s a healthy mix of players who made their careers in the AHL in that group. If you look at the younger players from these past seven seasons – those in Olofsson’s age or experience range – it’s a fascinating to see the one big-time NHL scorer to come from the bunch was Tyler Johnson, who scored 50 points the following season with Tampa Bay (and 72 points in 2014-15). While Johnson spent two seasons in the AHL, a player like Mike Hoffman also turned out pretty good after four years in Binghamton.

This isn’t to say that Olofsson won’t live up to the hype, but more a means to see if success at the AHL level can be predictor of the same in the NHL.

What we’ve seen from Olofsson through his career is that he’s made a huge leap the past two seasons in Sweden and the AHL, which bodes well for how he can do with the Sabres. His shot seems to be as advertised, but placing any immediate expectations on the rest of his game seems a bit premature at the moment.

(Top photo: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports)