

With In its annual Worldwide CAD Trends Survey, British-based Business Advantage this year surveyed 635 CAD managers and users in several countries. The survey reports on 15 areas of interest that are -- or are not -- important to users, such as 3D modeling, cloud, and real-time rendering.



So much has changed in the five years since the iPad was introduced! Instead of desktop CAD software being the only option (and maybe a central file server or two), now CAD managers have half-a-dozen options for deploying and accessing CAD.



There are several consulting firms that survey the attitudes and aspirations of CAD users, and this happens to be one that caught my eye; plus, Business Advantage makes its report freely available at www.business-advantage.com/CAD-Trends.php . This survey is useful, because it can help cut through the marketing claims that distort the image we have of our industry. For example, one CAD vendor spends a lot of money advertising its cloud-based CAD software; but does the intended audience (CAD managers) care?



Let me first describe the survey results, and then I'll delve into some trends more deeply from my experience.

What the 2015 Survey Reported The survey asks nearly the same set of questions every year. This allows the firm to spot trends. Which CAD topics are gaining interest; which are declining? For each topic, the survey asks respondents two key questions: (1) are youaware of the technology? (2) do you actually use it?



The result allows Business Advantage to place technologies into four quadrants of trends:

Emerging Trends: | Leading Trends:

High usage, low importance | High usage, high importance

-----------------------------+------------------------------

Niche Trends: | Trailing Trends:

Low usage, low importance | Low usage, high importance



Based on the multi-year survey results, Business Advantage places these CAD-related technology trends onto the quadrants. See figure 1. Figure 1

CAD technologies assigned to usage and importance quadrants

The results are shocking: Highly-hyped technologies -- like cloud-based CAD, virtual reality, and pay-as-you-go monthly subscriptions -- suffer from low use and low importance. Few design firms care about them, let alone use them.

The media darling, 3D printing, fares better by making it into the Emerging category.

Newer technology, like mobile CAD, just gets its nose into the all-important Leading category, while 3D modeling blows away everything else. There is a disconnect between the shiny new toys CAD vendors desire to sell us (and that we in the media love to talk about), and what is actually used by design firms to get their work done. The disconnect is even clearer at CAD conferences, when users cheer for better 2D drafting tools, but not for better cloudCAD.



To be sure, the survey has its drawbacks. It does not ask about 2D drafting.The sample size is tiny. The respondents tend to be European. CAM and other aspects important to users are ignored.



And so for the remainder of this article, let me take a deeper look at current trends CAD technology, independent of the survey. I'll describe some of the pros and cons for each one, and indicate which CAD vendors are active in that area.

3D Modeling Three-dimensional modeling was given a boost last decade with the launch of SpaceClaim and its easy-to-use direct editing. Although direct 3D editing is not new and the software only ever sold 30,000 licenses, SpaceClaim remarkably spurred the heavyweights to action. Siemens PLM invented Synchronous Technology direct editing for NX and Solid Edge; Autodesk developed its Fusion direct editor; and PTC merged its history-based Pro/E and direct editor CoCreate to create Creo.



Soon after, new algorithms and graphics capabilities let CAD vendors add real-time surface mesh modeling, where we create those mushy-looking 3D objects with smoothed curves. Here the secret: the CAD systems' algorithms only recalculate the isolines that you manipulate; the rest of the 3D object's surface is filled visually. See figure 2.

Figure 2

Mesh modeling manipulating isolines of the surfaces of 3D models

(Credit: Amir Vaxman at https://www.geometrie.tuwien.ac.at/vaxman)

Fast forward to 2013, and new technologies in the Web make 3D modeling effective in browsers -- and cheap to program. New companies with just a couple of employees lurch into life, pocket millions in financing, and then drop like flies. Names like sunglass.io, TinkerCAD, and To3D either go under quickly or mercifully are bought out.



As those companies found out, it's easy to write a basic 3D modeler that's fun for school children to dabble with, but it is tough to make something serious for which professionals would actually pay. So in 2015, this became the new goal: serious Web-based CAD. After a group of ex-Solidworks employees landed $64 million in funding [now $144 million], they released their Onshape modeler earlier this year, the first Web-only seriously-3D CAD program. Meanwhile, over in Germany, Graebert self-funded a Web-based 2D CAD program code-named Xenon [now named Kudo].



In just one decade, we've gained easy direct editing, mesh modeling, "anywhere" access through Web browsers; even 2D/3D constraints and parametrics are available in sub-$1000 CAD programs. Let's zoom in for closer look at technology that's adjacent to 3D.

3D Printing The only aspect of 3D modeling familiar to the general public is 3D printing. It's been overhyped by reporters who don't understand this "new" technology that's already 25 years old. As the employee of one 3D printer firm told me, the media creates problems for his industry by discussing the topic in unrealistic terms. Terms like "fast," "one in every home," and "print replacement parts easily."



The reality for consumers is that it's expensive, slow, makes small parts, and typically uses generic materials (like melted ABS plastic) that are unsuitable for replacement parts that usually need tough materials, like Bakelite (for pot handles), Delrin (a slippery plastic), and stainless steel. Even cheap 3D printers (under $500) become expensive as consumers buy over-priced spools of additional material.



Three-D printing is best used by big organizations that can afford fast printers and the staff to tend to them, and by hobbyists who have the time to dabble.



Any CAD package that can output 3D models in STL format can be used for 3D printing, and most can. But Autodesk is the only CAD vendor to put big funding into 3D printing, no surprise given that it is run by a CEO who likes to tinker. Today, the company is attempting to set standards for the industry, and so acquires 3D printing companies for both the hardware and the software.

Cloud Cloud-based CAD is hyped by software companies hoping to profit from this pivot in how data is stored and accessed. Really, all it is is FTP with a nice interface. As the Business Advantage survey shows, however, CAD managers and users are not all that interested in it.



The three primary concerns they have are security, security, and security. Proponents like to claim, unfortunately, that our desktop computers are a greater risk. Or that because we do banking on the cloud, CAD data on the cloud is just as safe. The spin is quickly unmasked. Banks cover every cent lost, while CAD vendors artfully offer us T&Cs (terms and conditions) that disavow their responsibility for our data. That's unassuring.



The other primary drawbacks to "the better way" is elimination of the permanent license for running cloud-based software: your design firm's ability to service customers could be cut off should a recession make your ongoing payments difficult. Vendors like OhShape and Autodesk partially alleviate the concern by providing free versions with limited file capacity.



There are many styles of cloud-based CAD on offer: remote-hosted, in-house, hybrid, Web-browser (true cloud), and mobile (also hybrid). Some cloud functions are free (like having a few gigabytes of data storage), but everything else is chargeable like on airplanes, such as gaining more storage space, or getting more tokens for per-job runs like FEA and rendering. Payment become confusing as you buy tokens for jobs, but then have little idea how many tokens an FEA job will consume.



Autodesk, Dassault Systemes, Onshape, and Graphisoft are leading the charge into CAD on the cloud, while PTC, Siemens PLM, Bentley, and Bricsys would rather wait it out, preferring for now to put only their data management on a cloud. Now let me delve more deeply into the types of cloud-based CAD software.

Hybrid CAD Software Hybrid CAD systems are installed and run on desktop computers, but then access the cloud for some functions that are more convenient, more flexible, or faster. For example, files stored on the cloud can be more convenient to access anywhere a reasonable Internet connection permits; the formats for data translation can be updated continuously through the Web; and CPU-intensive tasks like finite element analysis and rendering can run faster by accessing more computing cores on server farms.



The benefit to hybrid systems is that they run even where there is no access to the Internet. Autodesk's Fusion 360 is perhaps the best known hybrid system. Autodesk admits that only 10% of Fusion users are its existing customers. I suppose that desktop-based Inventor continues to be deeply engrained. Dassault also has taken the hybrid approach with its V6 systems.

Browser CAD Software Browser-based CAD runs on a server that has been rented by the CAD vendor from a firm like Amazon. Only the results of the CAD operations appear in the Web browser.



WebGL is the technology that makes 2D drawings and 3D models seem to operate locally in the browser. It handles user interface functions like panning and zooming, entity highlighting, and object selection. This means that any CAD system that works in a Web browsers could also run on smartphones and tablets -- but see the exception below, under Mobile Apps. If the Web browser you want to use does not support WebGL, then the CAD system is a no-show. For example, Safari supports WebGL, but Apple turns it off by default.



The primary drawback to browser-based CAD is that it requires a reliable Internet connection, or else it does not work -- period. OnShape, for example, has no off-line mode, and so it is not available to the bulk of the world's population who could benefit from it. They live in emerging countries with poor infrastructure. As a CAD user from India told me, "Our business pays for two ISPs in the hope that at least one works. I could never afford that at home."



Even when the Internet connection works full time, cloud-based CAD faces a second obstacle: latency, the delay in responding. When latency increases, the data flow slows. It is due to the many switches through which the Internet protocol routes data. The problem is solved by CAD vendors renting servers in many geographic areas, so that our Web browsers access the closest one. When the CAD vendor does not have geographically-dispersed servers, than users suffer.



The CAD leaders in browser-based CAD are Autodesk with its extensive 360 line of software, and Onshape with its one and only eponymous software. See figure 3.

Figure 3

Onshape running purely in a Web browser and on a remote server Mobile Apps Mobile CAD runs as small apps on tablets and smartphones, but CAD vendors hit their peak enthusiasm back in 2013. Vendors became discouraged after they found downloads numbered in the mere tens or the hundreds. Actual usage is far lower. The industry rule-of-thumb is one app is used (defined as "used at least once a month") for every 5-6 downloads.



Nevertheless, CAD on mobile devices provides convenient access to drawings at job sites, especially through file services like Dropobx or even email. But the operation of the software suffers from the restrictions in mobile hardware. Most mobile devices have just 1GB or 2GB RAM (a very few have 3GB or 4GB), into which the entire Android (or iOS) operating system and all of the CAD app and its data must fit, plus any apps running concurrently in the background, like monitoring the phone. Because mobile operating systems do not page memory to other storage (like in Windows), the size of drawings is limited.



Desktop CAD relies on GPUs to handle the rendering tasks, which is why CAD vendors recommend specific models of nVidia or AMD ATi graphics boards. The GPUs in smartphones and tablets are far more limited -- and slower -- at rendering. The good news is that the ARM-style CPUs that are used in mobile devices are now as fast as today's laptop CPUs. Ironically, some laptops are slower in order to extend battery life. My new phone runs at 1.7HGz, Apple's newest MacBook 2015 runs at 1.3GHz in the most expensive model.



Again, Autodesk is the leader in the mobile app arena, with over ten million downloads for the Android version of AutoCAD 360. (Apple does not report download numbers.) Graphisoft is working hard at updating its BIMx software for viewing 2D and 3D models made by ArchiCAD. IMSI/Design has a strong suite of iOS-only apps for recording data at job sites (see figure 4), and Orthograph's Architect 3D for iPads is mature software for capturing floor plan surveys. Graebert is porting most of the command set and most of the APIs from its desktop ARES software into its mobile Touch software.

Figure 4

TurboSite recording geo-located photographs on a site plan, running on an iPad Conclusion We live in exciting times -- well, maybe puzzling times -- as CAD vendors blast many kinds of new technology at us, hoping that one (or more) will stick. There are some wonderful options today for those of us who wander outside the office.



Fortunately, nearly any software using new technology can be tried out for free, and I urge you to try out several products in any class. Not everything that is new is useful, but I find that these things work themselves out over time as users determine what is truly effective.



[This article first appeared in Design Engineering magazine earlier this year. It was updated for this appearance in upFront.eZine.]