We are just waiting for a date now. The moment when an ownership will agree to gorge on a significant portion of what is left on a sizeable contract.

The Blue Jays did this last December, releasing Troy Tulowitzki with two years at $38 million remaining. That topped the $33.4 million the Dodgers ate with Carl Crawford as the most ever.

Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis and Albert Pujols are now on the clock. Each began this season poorly. Maybe better days are coming. Their recent history does not suggest that, at a time when the finish line to their contracts remain far away.

Large contracts are as pertinent a subject today as at any time in the game’s history. The free-agent market was stagnant for a second straight year. Then beginning late in the offseason and carrying into the early part of the schedule, a flurry of substantial deals were completed. Two went to free agents, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Most were extensions — ranging from those near free agency, such as Nolan Arenado and Chris Sale, to those far away, such as Ronald Acuna and Eloy Jimenez.

Those extensions were worth more than $2 billion yet hardly signalled victory for the players. In some ways it was a concession speech, a recognition that waiting for free agency was not the pot of gold of the past. And the overall average pay in the sport remained static or decreased slightly at a time when MLB revenues keep increasing.

But teams should hold off on their victory lap. They often got what they wanted, namely by going earlier via extensions the chance to get more prime years. But for Arenado, Sale, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Jacob deGrom and others, there are plenty of thirtysomething seasons guaranteed.

And keep in mind the deals Tulowitzki and Cabrera are currently operating on were extensions. David Wright “retired” with two seasons left on his extension. Matt Kemp’s extension has been traded four times. Johan Santana was an extension, so was Adrian Gonzalez.

So maybe the players are right to have suspicion about how negotiations and pay have been handled the past 24 months. To that end MLB, has promised to discuss substantial financial issues well before collective bargaining agreement expires in 2021.

But a more simple explanation of what has transpired recently is about eyesight, not collusion. Simply looking at the largest contracts of all time would reveal they are generally not good business. The big multi-year deals that work out — like with Derek Jeter, Jon Lester or Max Scherzer — are rare compared to the failures. Do teams greatly benefit on the front end by drastically underpaying the true value of stars? Yes. However, the big deals that turn bad tend to have a crippling impact — not just on the books, but in navigating how to play (or not play) a fading star and deciding when (if) to just accept the sunk cost and get out.

Here are five deals that will challenge franchises to make tough choices:

1. Miguel Cabrera: Tigers owner Mike Ilitch was willing to subsidize chasing a championship that never came. Ilitch died in 2017, leaving a team needing to rebuild with lots of bad contracts. The worst belongs to Cabrera — who signed an eight-year, $248 million extension in March 2014 when he was among the best hitters ever.

That guy is gone due to injury and age. This season began with five years at $162 million left. Consider that deGrom’s extension was five years at $137.5 million. Cabrera, 36 in two weeks, played just 38 games last year mainly because of a torn biceps and even with three hits Saturday began this season 7-for-31 (.226) without an extra-base hit.



2. Chris Davis: At his best, Davis was what so many hate in the modern game. In 2015, he homered, walked or struck out in 51 percent of his plate appearances. That got him a seven-year, $161 million contract. The homer frequency dropped, the strikeouts rose.

In 2018 he hit .168 with 192 strikeouts. He began this season hitless in 17 at-bats with 11 strikeouts (he was 0-for-38 dating to last year). He began this season with four years at $92 million left, and he may have pushed across the borderline of unplayable.

3. Albert Pujols: His 2017-18 looks a lot like that of Jose Bautista — some lingering power, but a drastic decline in batting average, on-base skills and impact. Bautista, 38, does not have a job. Pujols, 39, has three years at $87 million left on his $240 million pact. He had again gotten off poorly amid an Angels lineup that was performing terribly — except for Trout. Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton are recovering from injury. When Ohtani returns, he will be the DH. For Pujols that will mean having to play first base (where he is no longer a strong defender) or nothing.

4. Jason Heyward: The Cubs gave an eight-year, $184 pact before the 2016 season believing they were getting an all-around player in his prime. In retrospect they recognized in that kind of contract that the bat (especially for a corner player) has to be considerable because elite defense and baserunning are not enough. Of the 117 players who came to bat at least 1,500 times from 2016-18, Heyward’s 81 OPS-plus was the fourth worst. His OPS-plus in 2019 was 89 even after homering Friday. He has five years at $106 million left.

5. Buster Posey: Didn’t expect to see him here, did you? Posey is so iconic (think of him as the Giants’ Jeter) that his leash will be exceedingly long. His power evaporated last year, and that could be explained by him needing hip surgery in August. But I wonder if Posey ends up similar to Joe Mauer — who was an icon in Minnesota and was a catcher when he signed an eight-year, $184 million pact in 2010. But injury took him from behind the plate after a few years, and his bat, once great, faded to just effective.

Posey signed a nine-year, $167 million contract in 2013. As time has progressed, he has gone from a great to effective hitter (less than that to begin this season), with indications that his time catching will be less, and there could be more time at first base as the final three years at $64.2 million play out.