Kelly Olynyk is the darling of advanced statistics aficionado’s; seemingly playing the game the way the god of sabermetrics intended. He has a 15% assist percentage, a 4.5 career VORP and a 113/107 ORtg/DRtg. The fans however, often view Olynyk in a different light. They see him get swatted trying to lay the ball up or attempting a pump fake while driving, leading inevitably to a travel call. Typically, this has been boiled down to a lack of confidence or awareness. For all of Olynyk’s passing ability and ball handling potential, it appeared at times, Olynyk did not know what he was going to do with the ball once he got it. This season, Olynyk has shown much improvement in these areas and with his playoff performance in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semis, it would appear playoff Kelly has improved as well. So, while the fans may be anxious to rid themselves of their goofy Canadian center, the Celtics likely have other plans.

Olynyk has begun to evolve as a player. Where once he would pump fake in to a drive to nowhere, he has now added a pull up 18 ft jump shot that has led to a shooting percentage of 40% from 16ft and out (up from 24%). And instead of going straight up with the ball and getting swatted, Olynyk has begun to use the basket as cover. Raising his shooting percentage from 0-3 ft, to .753 (up from.657).

While the fans may be frustrated with Olynyk, the truth of the matter is his game is evolving in front of us. He compares very favorably to the top stretch 4’s in the league and better than the RFA contract recipients from a year ago.

Contracts can be like the players they are attached to. They can grow and mature; not in size, but in value. In the summer of 2014, the Celtics signed Avery Bradley for an AAV of $8M per year. That amount accounted for 12.5% of the, then salary cap. There was speculation at the time that this may be an overpay, as Bradley had not yet fully developed into the player that he is today. Fast forward to 2017. Bradley has become a 17pt per game scorer, a 1st Team All-NBA defender, and a 41% 3pt shooter. The contract, for all the initial dismay, has turned out to be one of the best value contracts in the league. Bradley now accounts for an extremely modest 8% of the 2017-18 salary cap.

The Celtics have seemingly injected an accelerant in to their rebuild, specifically by accumulating contracts like Bradley’s. No one can (or would) deny what is missing; A superstar who can help the Celtics at the end of games. Nevertheless, teams with an eye on consistently competing over a long period of time have a need and can seriously benefit from the systematic accumulation of these contracts. They are valuable not only for their ability to later fit in other impact players, but also as an enticing piece in a trade to another team.

Jared Weiss, of Celtics Blog tweeted recently, “On Kelly Olynyk’s free agency: After speaking with a slew of front office people recently, the consensus on his top market value is ~$13m.”

The 2017-18 cap is reportedly rising to $102M. At an AAV of $13M, Olynyk will represent 13% of the salary cap. With the cap expected to rise to $114M by 2020-21, the contract will mature and account for 11% of the salary cap. As Olynyk’s cap number matures, so will Ainge’s ability to add talent to the Celtics.

Last offseason saw a cash windfall for NBA players. The salary cap was increased by 50% from an extremely lucrative TV deal the NBA signed. A rare amount of very good FA’s combined with an enormous spending ability for each team contributed to an offseason that we likely will never see again. Writers and podcast hosts alike responded in kind, expressing profound disbelief. Seemingly undeserving players agreed to contracts for amounts that 12 months earlier would have appeared preposterous. While the free agent list this year is nowhere near as robust, there will also be less money to spend and no shortage of talent starved teams, which should keep the market fairly competitive.

The NBA is in uncharted territory; with their newfound spending ability and wondering where allocate it in an otherwise truncated time window. For this reason, there are not many past contract comparisons for a potential Olynyk deal.

Player Designation Years Total Contract AAV Allen Crabbe RFA 4 $75M $18.75M Evan Fournier RFA 5 $85M $17M Jordan Clarkson RFA 4 $50M $12.5M Maurice Harkless RFA 4 $42M $10.5M Mirza Teletovic RFA 3 31.5M $10.5M

The RFA class of 2016 does have some comparable contracts. Not all of the RFA’s from 2016 fill the same role as Olynyk; which is to be expected, as effective stretch 4s are extremely rare. Based on player designation, service time, FA pool and the combined NBA cap space available; many of these numbers are pretty reasonable if not value contracts. Statistically, Olynyk outperforms these “comparable” contracts in a great many categories:

As we are all too aware, salaries alone do not indicate a player’s overall value. A player’s production is ultimately the most important component. Olynyk has maintained a pretty consistent statistical output throughout his 4 years in the NBA. He ranks amongst the tops at his role/position in the NBA in qualified production.



Olynyk holds his own in most all statistical categories and is near the top in FG and 3pt%. His defensive rating is noticeably bested by only Draymond Green (who may be the defensive player of the year) and his offensive rating is significantly topped only by Nikola Jokic (potentially the best all-around offensive big man in the NBA).

The most important thing to consider after the impressive statistical output Olynyk has been able to compile in relation to his peers, is his true peers all are or will be max players. A max player with 5 years of service time under the new CBA will take roughly $22M per year of cap space (22%). So, Olynyk at 13M looks to be a bargain. Olynyk’s ceiling may never be as impactful as the players listed here, but assuming consistent growth, his value may be much higher over the length of his next contract.

Statistically analyzing and predicting future output is a job is for writers and GMs. Proving those predictions is for players. Kelly exploded in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Scoring 26 points on 10-14 shooting, including an unconscious 14 points in the fourth quarter. While this is only one game, the players that can do things like this in the playoffs, are simply that and there isn’t a surplus of them. In previous postseasons, Kelly appeared overmatched by the speed and enhanced competition level of the playoffs. Even before this game, Kelly appeared to have overcome those demons, with the help of some of the adjustments discussed earlier and the concurrent confidence therein. Kelly is improving and it seems fair to begin projecting a new career arc for him, if not a more vaulted ceiling.

These decisions do not exist in a vacuum and a great many things can change between now and the beginning of the new league year. There is no certainty that there will be a league wide consensus that Kelly Olynyk’s value will be $13M annually. In fact, with Kelly’s recent Game 7 performance there is a strong chance that some team will identify Kelly’s development and make him an offer eclipsing this assessment. There is also no certainty that even if the Celtics see this amount as an extreme value, they will be able to add the All-Star player that they need, while incurring Olynyk’s $7.74M cap hold. They may have to jettison Olynyk, Bradley or both, amongst other players just to sign a max free agent. They may also have to consider the possibility that they keep Olynyk over Bradley. Bradley’s contract has been extremely valuable to the Celtics during this rebuild, however, he is soon due a massive pay increase. Many have speculated already on whether this would be worth it or not. The Celtics just have to weigh whether the emergence of a new value contract helping to provide salary cap flexibility in the future is worth more than keeping an admittedly better player for one more year. In short, Kelly may be here to stay and you should want him.

[All stats provided by basketball-reference.com]

[All contract data provided by spotrac.com]