The Sacramento Kings have the second pick in the draft and dear god do they need it. The Kings haven’t made the playoffs in over 10 years and are right up there with the Knicks as the greatest laughing stock in the NBA. However, they may have found a bright spot last year with their rookie point guard De’Aaron Fox. Having been picked 5th in last years draft the expectations were high and while Fox’s season was marred by inconsistency, plays like these show the impact he can have on the NBA game https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=69&v=ChP9ymLGqcY. Fox’s quickness and explosiveness bring a legit upside that simply no other Kings prospect has. While Bogdan Bogdanovic and Buddy Hield can be good players who help an NBA team win, they will never be game changers or players that can’t be easily replaced. After all besides maybe big men, shooting is the easiest commodity to find and Bogdan nor Buddy make enough contributions in other areas to be known as more than shooters who are defensive liabilities, Hield had a -1.4 Defensive BPM and Bogdan had a -1.5 last year, which is a pretty average combo. With Fox though there is something more. I mean how many point guards can make a play like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-NLeEWkL3w. Seeing that Fox has this special ability and is the only piece on the Kings who has the upside to change the fortunes of the franchise it would seem necessary to maximize his impact on the court. However, the problem with this is my top ranked player in the draft and the consensus top ranked player to be available at number 2 is Luka Doncic. When looking at both players holistically it is my belief that if the Kings drafted Doncic they would be minimizing the growth of both Doncic and Fox, which would almost in some way show that they are hedging their bets on Fox before he even starts year 2. This is something the franchise shouldn’t be doing.

So why do Fox’s and Doncic’s games not make for a mutually positive relationship. In looking at Fox’s game we start to see a reason why. Fox needs the ball. In the possessions Fox had the ball he ran pick and roll 43% of the time a number that is 11% higher than his rookie point guard counterpart Dennis Smith and 14% higher than other noted rookie Lonzo Ball. And while Smith’s usage percentage is 5% higher than Fox’s this can be attributed to the fact that Fox played the 2 next to George Hill for more than half the season, a combination that was an absolute disaster together, largely because of Fox’s need for the ball. The reason Fox is so ball dependent is a combination of two things: his inability to shoot and his absolutely ridiculous first step which can only be shown with the ball in his hands. As for the shooting De’Aaron shot 30% from 3 at 2.7 attempts per 36 minutes. For comparison’s sake, Ricky Rubio last year shot 30% on 2.9 attempts per 36 playing a similar role as Fox and was often criticized for the harm he did to his team’s offense in the halfcourt with his lack of shooting ability. Now the reason Fox doesn’t have these same halfcourt offense concerns is his ridiculous first step, an ability that allows him to get to the rim at virtually any time. This was seen when Kentucky needed a bucket versus Wichita State in the second round of the NCAA tournament last year https://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2017-03-19/dunk-deaaron-fox-0. The ability to do this is something that should be honed by the Sacramento Kings and with shooters around him like Hield and Bogdanovic, Fox has the chance for the perfect set up as a pick and roll guard if he could get a dynamic pick and roll companion at the big man spot.

Unfortunately the best prospect that will be available, according to myself and most others, is Luka Doncic who is not a dynamic big man. Worse though Doncic is a prospect that could be hindered by Fox, but also hinder Fox’s ability to grow. However before I dive into this I must explain what makes Doncic a part of this discussion and why he is such a special prospect. To summarize there hasn’t been a prospect with his potential plus production since Anthony Davis in 2012. Now I know potential is usually tied to athleticism and Doncic is not the most athletic guy the NBA has ever seen (though plays like this https://twitter.com/Mike_Schmitz/status/989197805242597376 show that Doncic’s athleticism is underrated) but his ability to handle the ball and be a de-facto point guard at 6'8 plus still having plenty of room for athletic growth make him a can’t miss prospect. I mean just look at Ben Simmons’s impact this year who in all honesty isn’t that much more of a dynamic athlete than Doncic is, plus Simmons doesn’t have the threat of a shot that Doncic has. In both Doncic’s and Simmons’ case though a secondary ball handler is important to have (which I noted in my piece about the impact Doncic could have on the Suns https://medium.com/@sam.mazzullo/phoenix-suns-nba-draft-overview-7e4d06b113bd) as seen in the playoffs this year by the impact TJ McConnell had in the Celtics series in helping free up Simmons and other Sixers players this year.

So if Doncic, like Simmons, needs another playmaker to help free up himself and his teammates why can’t he play with De’Aaron Fox. After all he’s played with quick dynamic guards before, Goran Dragic and Sergio Llull, and had tremendous success. With Dragic he was able to win the EuroCup and with Llull he’s created one of the best, if not the best, teams outside the NBA. The problem is the two creators Doncic has played with both have a key differentiator separating themselves from Fox. Both guys can shoot. Dragic last year shot the ball at 37% from 3 on 1.8 more attempts than Fox per 36 minutes and Llull shot it two years ago (last year he was hurt for most of the year) at 35% on 5.8 more attempts per 36 minutes!

Now, in the case of the development of Doncic and Fox the amount of shots Fox makes doesn’t necessarily matter as the Kings wouldn’t be expected to compete for the playoffs. The problem is if teams don’t play Fox as a shooter and sink off of him both players could be in trouble. With another defender in help and not having to track his man as a shooter Doncic is going to have trouble getting to the paint and making plays. After all the biggest knock on Doncic’s game in his inability to sometimes get to them rim versus good defenders. So if Doncic can’t get to the rim it becomes harder for him to create plays for his teammates, which is his biggest strength. Doncic can also make plays out of the post but if a double can easily be sent, due to the lack of shooting on the floor, his advantage there isn’t necessarily a factor either. Therefore with Doncic’s best skills being mitigated the Kings could decide to have Doncic play more strictly as an off ball shooter, like Hield and Bogdan, slowing his development as an all around matchup nightmare.

On top of the problems the Kings situation presents for Doncic are the problems it presents for Fox, if Doncic was the pick. When looking at the Kings situation last year Fox ran pick and roll a ton, as previously noted, but was fairly unsuccessful. He finished in the 27th percentile on pick and roll plays which is a pretty unflattering number. However this number should not all be blamed on Fox. In college Fox was in the 73rd percentile for pick and roll ballhandlers. This percentile disparity has a lot to do with the fact that at Kentucky he had a legit big to throw the ball to and run off of in the pick and roll with Bam Adebayo. In this play https://youtu.be/0g2YeUHsZKg?t=1m22s the impact of Adebayo on Kentucky is shown as even though Fox doesn’t get the ball to Bam at first, the impact of having to play two guys on him allows a shooter to get open and eventually swing the ball on the rotation inside for a bucket. In Sacramento, the bigs Fox had to work with simply didn’t incite this level of fear onto opposing defenses and for good reason. Currently Sacramento’s two big guys of the “future” are Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein. The reason I put “future” in quotations is because, well, they aren’t very good. One place they aren’t very good, though there are many, is in the pick and roll. In the pick and roll Willie Cauley-Stein averaged .967 points per possession, a number that was in the 28th percentile across all roll men in the league this year. Yikes! Except, Skal was even worse. He averaged .924 points per possession a number that put him in the 20th percentile of all roll men. So obviously this combination can’t be Fox’s roll men for the long term, especially when Fox’s value is going to come from being dynamic in the pick and roll. So how does this effect the draft?

Usually it wouldn’t. Even though the fit between Doncic and Fox is rocky, Doncic is a dynamic talent with a boatload of production to back that talent up and usually someone a team wouldn’t be able to pass on at the top of the draft. However, this year is an insanely talented draft at the top with six players who I would’ve ranked number 1 last year. Now I know that is easy to say with the way Fultz played this year, but the bigs in this class that stack the top don’t come around often. And it just so happens that the number 1 thing that should be on the Kings to do list this draft is a dynamic pick and roll big man. So with only Ayton gone, the Kings have their pick of the big man litter in Marvin Bagley, Jaren Jackson, Mo Bamba, and the always controversial Michael Porter. Therefore with all these oozing big man talents the debate amongst the Kings management on who should go second is one of the most compelling of the year.

Marvin Bagley: First let’s start with Marvin Bagley. Bagley has the most pure production of any of these bigs versus higher levels of competition and the reasons why are clear. On offense Bagley’s incredible package of body control, effort, and quickness off the ground at his size have made him simply an impossible cover his whole life. These three skills also so happen to make him the perfect player as a dive man in the pick and roll because not only can he catch lobs but he can create a play off the short roll too. Bagley was rarely used as a role man in college, as he played the 4 with potential top 10 pick Wendell Carter playing the 5 creating an unstoppable high-low in college, but when he did the results were, well perfect. According to synergy, Bagley had 10 field goal attempts at the rim as a pick and roll screener and he finished all 10. However, this is obviously a small sample size so how can we trust that Bagley truly is dynamic in the pick and roll. Plays like this https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/948057919207149568 combined with plays like this https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/983539509748027392. How many players do you know who can make both of these plays? The answer is very few. In the pick and roll a player who can do both of these puts so much pressure on the defense because you’re almost forced to play him with two guys as one guy simply isn’t athletic enough to cover Bagley with a running start. The problem is on the Kings, teams might actually be able to play Bagley with two for the lack of spacing Fox forces as the pick and roll handler. Fox, as one of the most explosive point guards in the league, and Bagley, who will be one of the most explosive bigs in the league, will usually be occupying the same space on the floor, the paint. The allure for both of them to be there is obvious. Fox makes plays going downhill and getting a foot in the paint forcing a help defender to come off a shooter or allow Fox to finish at the rim. And as we just noted, Bagley’s fluidity and explosiveness allow him to make incredible plays in the paint. The problem is if both men are working in the paint a defensive scheme to stop both of them is possible as a team can put two on Bagley in the pick and roll while still being close enough to Fox to stop him from scoring. Still this isn’t a huge problem. Both Bagley and Fox are young and can learn to shoot and Bagley’s dynamic skillset as a rollman is worth betting on at the number 2 pick. The lack of spacing Bagley and Fox would present though isn’t the only problem with the pairing’s fit in Sacramento.

Bagley’s best position on offense is the 5, where his dynamic offensive skillset can be best used. The problem is there are large, legitimate concerns over whether Bagley can anchor a defense there and it’s not like the Kings, who were 28th in defensive efficiency, have the defensive infrastructure to help Bagley be successful there. Bagley had a 3 Defensive BPM which is worse than Deandre Ayton’s at 4 and significantly worse than Jaren Jackson and Mo Bamba who respectively had a 10.3 and 8.9 DBPM. Bagley, and most of Duke’s team, was so bad on defense that the team had to switch to zone halfway through the year, something Coach K despises doing. All you have to do is watch ESPN’s scouting video on Marvin to see these defensive concerns https://youtu.be/LUYwt0yMncM?t=3m10s. So while I noted on my piece on the Suns (yes another shameless plug) that I thought Ayton would be average on the defensive end, in my opinion it would be an outstanding outcome if Bagley even reached that point. More likely, Bagley at the 5 will be a clear minus for any team on the defensive end because of not only his lack of instincts but also his like of pure size. So is it worth it for the Kings to draft Bagley at 2?

Mo Bamba: If the Kings drafted Mo Bamba they wouldn’t have to worry about there defensive anchor for that’s one of Bamba’s biggest selling points. As previously noted, Mo Bamba’s defensive impact was large, no pun intended, in college and expects to be similar in the NBA. His ridiculous measurements- 6'11 without shoes, 9'8 standing reach, and 7'10 wingspan- allow him to cover the rim at any level and Bamba isn’t a stiff, like common bust comparison Hasheem Thabeet, either. At his draft workout with the Bulls, Bamba ran his 3/4 court sprint in 3.04 seconds which is less than John Wall and Russell Westbrook. This speed and athleticism is shown in flashes on film in plays like these https://twitter.com/HoopInDetail/status/998015781987205121 where Bamba is able to mirror guards extremely well for someone so long. Bamba’s freakish ability is also shown on offense in spurts. He actually has good touch to go with his great length creating some vast potential. In theory these skills should all lend themselves as a perfect match for Fox and the Kings team. Bamba’s defensive abilities allow him for him to be a true 5 who can defend while also being able to both pick and pop and pick and roll next to Fox. With Bamba’s ability to anchor on defense the Kings could also play another shooter type at the 4 giving Fox and Bamba plenty of room to operate; unlike if the Kings drafted Bagley therefore forcing them to start another big to help Bagley out on defense. The amount of bigs who can anchor a defense, pick and pop, and pick and roll are few and far between and Bamba has the potential to be this type of player. In fact the only two bigs that can do this right now are Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, and maybe Kristaps Porzingis meaning the Kings have the chance to get something that doesn’t come around often. On top of all this, it just so happens that this type of player is the perfect fit next to shooters and a dynamic point guard who can create plays for his big. I mean imagine all the options Fox would have running the pick and roll. He could have Bamba pop allowing himself to have a one on one opportunity to the rim, he could have Bamba roll giving him a lob option, or he could use Bamba’s gravity as a vertical spacer, due to his absurd length, to find an open shooter as the defense keened in on the lob. It seems perfect.

However, the situation with the Kings and Bamba isn’t so rosy. The problem is Bamba has yet to turn all his abilities and flashes into great production, even on the defensive side where he is considered a stud. Bamba often allows guys to get by him on the perimeter and while he is a very smart individual, his basketball instincts are lacking causing him to often make mistakes leading to buckets for the other team. These lack of instincts are shown in the stat sheet as well as on tape for Bamba’s Assist/Turnover ratio was 1/3 which is worse than all his big man companions at the top of the draft save for Michael Porter who we’ll talk about shortly. Unfortunately for Bamba, he has more obstacles to reaching his potential than just his basketball instincts. Bamba’s frame is incredibly slender causing him to get bodied by college bigs https://youtu.be/nfLBnJLHjSw?t=5m6s. No offense to this guy, but if he’s scoring on Bamba in the post imagine what’s going to happen when it’s Boogie down there. Now hopefully Bamba gains weight and will be able to hold his own down low on the block but the problem is Bamba has struggled with putting on weight. Over the last year, April to June to be exact, Bamba has only gained 9 pounds. This struggle to gain weight is backed up by the eye test as Bamba’s frame just looks skinny compared to the other bigs in this class. For someone so thin this is a large concern. Therefore with Bamba’s lack of instincts, weaker production, and low weight it is fair to wonder if he will ever reach the potential everyone hopes he can, which is the potential he would have to reach to be worth the second pick.

Michael Porter Jr: Everybody is also hoping Michael Porter can reach his potential, but his concerns are different than Bamba’s. Michael Porter came into the season the number 2 ranked recruit in the country, which I think is one spot too low, and was my second ranked prospect going into the season, behind Luka Doncic but in the same tier. Simply put, Porter dominated the highest levels of high school ball winning the Nike EYBL Peach Jam, named Co-MVP with Trae Young, and going undefeated at Nathan Hale beating traditional powers like Oak Hill and Marvin Bagley’s Sierra Canyon team. In many instances Porter just seemed a step above his peers. His impact comes from his legitimate small ball center frame, 6'9.5 without shoes and 9'+ standing reach, while also being able to go coast to coast at full speed before stopping to hit a pull up from 3. And no this is not hyperbole https://youtu.be/a8YrK5ket18?t=2m13s. A small ball center who can hit a pull up 3 while also holding his own on the glass, he averaged 11.4 rebounds per game at Peach Jam, with the ability to make plays at the rim like this https://youtu.be/a8YrK5ket18?t=1m11s is extraordinarily valuable in the modern game and can cause all sort of trouble for opposing defenses, basically playing their team’s center off the floor. I mean I talked about Bamba’s ability to be a dual pick and roll threat causing problems but Porter is already that. A pick and roll with Fox and Porter at the 5 is almost an impossible cover. Porter can naturally play the 4 as a relocation shooter and delayed popper out of the pick and roll for most of the game, allowing the Kings to get a true roll man at the 5 who can protect the rim, before putting him at the 5 at the end of games and during the playoffs to exploit mismatches when the game slows down. Therefore, there aren’t the same questions of NBA fit that there are with Bagley- where playing him at the 4 diminishes his value on offense as he can’t exploit his quickness and fluidity advantage. Porter’s pull up is so smooth that at the 4 he can just shoot over the top of his defender while maintaining enough mobility to defend. The problem is there are serious concerns over whether Porter will want to play the 4, let alone the 5. He fancies himself as a Carmelo Anthony, Paul George type hybrid thinking of himself as a 3. While on offense this isn’t a concern, Fox and Porter could still run handoffs allowing for a switch where Porter gets a 1 on him a the top of the key or if the team doesn’t switch Fox gets a full head of steam towards the hoop, it is a big concern on defense.

An often counterargument to the criticism of Porter’s defense is that he’s never been asked to do it and in college his lack of defense was because of his back injury. However, at least on the perimeter, Porter has serious issues that don’t just involve effort but an inability to stay in front of guys whether he is healthy or not. Porter is very inflexible, which is probably the reason for his back injury, I know from having back surgery that flexibility is incredibly important to put less pressure there, and it shows in his tape on both offense and defense. On offense it is somewhat easy to ignore these flexibility issues as Porter has the ability to just shoot over the top of defenders meaning he doesn’t really need the flexibility to break guys down with quick moves off the bounce. However on defense it really effects his ability to guard on the perimeter which could be an almost insurmountable concern is he is committed to playing the 3. Porter simply can’t get into a stance forcing him to play upright as shown here https://youtu.be/a8YrK5ket18?t=3m29s. These same kind of plays happened pre Missouri too https://youtu.be/a8YrK5ket18?t=3m45s. Therefore in my opinion Porter could very well be played off the court, a la Carmelo this year in the playoffs, if he wants to play the 3 next to other big men. However if he chooses to be a big Porter is way closer to becoming an actual positive on the defense end. Porter with his athleticism could make both help side blocks at the 4 or protect the rim more traditionally at the 5. He is bigger than Marvin Bagley so if we are considering him a 5 why can’t Porter be effective down there. Porter at the 4 with some 5 in situations seems like a can’t miss prospect. He has the requisite ability to guard most 4s while being able to protect the rim from at least the weak-side and still shoot over the top. At the end of games you could slide him to the 5 where he could take 5s with his quickness while putting in enough effort to hold his own on the glass and at the rim. The problem is if Porter is willing to put in the effort to play as a big guy. Coming off a back injury he has already previously stated that he wants to be a small forward, so how willing will he be to bang in the post on defense where his best fit lies. Even if the back is healthy the temperament and mentality is a legitimate question.

Jaren Jackson Jr: Jaren Jackson’s mentality and temperament on the other hand can not be questioned. Jackson has improved almost exponentially over the last year and a half which is a testament to his work ethic but also reinforces where he is on his age curve compared to the other prospects, he’s 6 months younger than Bagley and over a year younger than Bamba, Ayton, and Porter. Therefore Jaren still has time to bulk up his frame, which unlike Bamba is wide, and develop his body. However, something Jackson has that can’t really be changed with age is the best instincts of all the bigs being considered at this pick. While all the bigs at the top of this class have questions on defense, to a certain degree because of their instincts, Jackson has none because of how quickly he reacts on that end. No other big that is mentioned in this article can make a defensive play like this https://twitter.com/sammazz3/status/989240983664590848, we’ll get to the offense later. With these instincts Jackson should have no problem communicating as the quarterback or backline of the defense and with a 7'5 wingspan plus a 9'2 standing reach protecting the rim shouldn’t be an issue at all. Furthermore, Jaren uses his instincts to defend on the perimeter where he rarely has lapses and positions himself well in order to stay in front of quicker guards. This is where Jackson really separates himself from other athletic, long big men. Many of the current, traditional rim protectors in the NBA have the mobility and ability to cover guards on the perimeter but don’t have the instincts to position themselves to be successful. They often take bad stances and don’t understand the concepts of funneling the guard into traffic so they can get help. This is where JJJ separates himself in being almost a bigger Draymond Green on defense. Plays like this https://twitter.com/HoopInDetail/status/998013567944163328 show that even when Jackson is at an athletic disadvantage on the perimeter he is able to stay in front because of his instincts in knowing where to be, giving him upside to be legitimately the best defender in the league. Therefore, Jackson is the clear best defensive prospect in the draft, BPM backs this up, and is almost a lock to be a top 5–10 center on that end. However, offensively is where the questions come into play.

Jackson actually isn’t a bad offensive prospect. As shown in the video he makes quick moves in the post and has nice touch which extends all the way out to 3. He is by far the most advanced big from a shooting perspective because of this touch shooting 40% from 3 on 2.7 attempts while also going 80% from the free throw line. While there are concerns over his shooting stroke, he pushes the ball instead of shooting upward, the simple matter is that he can shoot it and the numbers plus touch bear that out. This should make Jackson a great off ball player as instincts combined with shooting usually are the two things you look for in that kind of ability. People sometimes question Jackson’s instincts on offense but I think the reason he didn’t look as quick-thinking there as he did on defense was just his discomfort in Izzo’s offense. As seen in this play https://twitter.com/sammazz3/status/989244331847507973 it looks clear that JJJ knows he should cut here but wants to follow the offense and not get pulled out. Michigan State wasn’t the best situation for him to feel comfortable on the offensive end as they played 6 big men and Jackson was usually in with a plodder down low. This meant a couple things. Number 1 is he didn’t have room to cut and was told to stay on the 3 point line so guys like Nick Ward could operate 1 on 1 in the post. Furthermore if Jackson made a mistake and messed up the offense Izzo had a quick leash as he had plenty of options, all of which weren’t nearly as good but for some reason he was content to play them, and usually pulled Jackson out. Therefore as Jaren gains more confidence, and is put in better situations to succeed, these instincts he has on defense should come out on the offensive end- unleashing him as a complete off ball weapon. The problem is on offense the Kings don’t really need another off ball player but rather need a guy to be a dynamic pick and roll partner with Fox, helping make the game easier for their point guard.

The weakest part of Jackson’s game is his explosion and it affects him in a couple of ways, primarily rebounding and rolling to the rim. In terms of rebounding this problem could be mitigated by Jackson bulking up and getting stronger allowing him to just box guys out rather than trying to out jump guys. However bulking up doesn’t necessarily improve Jackson’s explosion off the ground and this is the most important part of being a roll man. Jackson literally was used as a roll man 0 times last year so there is no sample to prove that he will be bad there. However, there are other indicators that show he will struggle in this area and prove why Izzo might’ve been right to use him in this role. Mike Gribanov, from The Stepien, wrote a great article about big man finishing that highlighted Jaren Jackson and his ability, or lack thereof, to finish at the rim. One stat he posted that in my opinion encapsulates why Jaren Jackson’s ability to roll leaves me skeptical is his percentage at the rim off put-backs/offensive rebounds. In this stat Ayton shot 75%, Bagley shot 68%, and Bamba shot 68% while Jackson only shot 54% in this area. The ability to score off a put-back is basically the same ability as scoring off a lob as a roll man. In both instances, the big has to jump in traffic and finish over and around defenders in the paint. So if Jackson struggles in this area, it is fair to question his ability as a role man and deem it a negative. Therefore, with the Kings likely to run spread pick and roll with their 5 as the roller because of Fox’s ability as the ball handler, it is fair to question if Jackson is worth picking at 2 even if he is a positive in almost every other area.

Deandre Ayton:Before concluding, I should note that if Ayton miraculously fell to 2 I believe the Kings will take him- and I wouldn’t argue the pick. Ayton is everything the Kings are looking for next to Fox: he can catch lobs out of the pick and roll, he can pop and shoot the midrange jumper, and he can run dribble handoffs making himself a complete pick and roll player. On defense I think he’ll likely be average to maybe slightly below, he’s just too big and athletic to be that bad on that end. And with his athleticism, size, and production he’s the safest pick for the Kings at number 2 for they know he’ll be a good NBA player who at minimum will be a fine starting center in the NBA and someone who can play off Fox and help him succeed. All of this summary is likely a moot point though as it is all but certain Ayton will go 1. So what should do the Kings do?

Conlussion: In my perfect world the Kings should try to trade any package of their current players, including Fox, to get both Jaren Jackson and Luka Doncic. They would be reinventing themselves as more of a motion offense team, without Fox, but the versatility and skill of that duo would allow the Kings to do so many different things. The Kings could put Jaren at the 5 and Doncic at the 4, in a Draymond Green/Kevin Love role, allowing them to run out 5 guys who could make plays from the perimeter while also keeping their defense intact. Or they could put Jackson and Doncic at the 4 and the 3 playing another big who is a pure roller, creating gravity towards the paint and giving Doncic and Jackson room to work on the perimeter. Finally, they could play Doncic at the 1 creating jumbo lineups with all sorts of versatility. The key with all this though is maintaining ball movement and versatility, a la the Golden State Warriors, as Doncic and Jackson work best when they can move off the ball and have space to cut. Keeping the floor spaced also helps both players create with the ball in their hands because while they both have great basketball instincts, they struggle to create plays with lots of ball pressure and in tight spaces due to their lack of explosiveness.

The problem is if the Kings can’t or won’t trade Fox to get their hands on both these guys their selection becomes a lot harder. Doncic and Jackson are, in my opinion, the two best players in this draft but their fit with Fox is extremely troublesome do to the factors I just laid out. With Fox as your point guard your team just can’t have the ball movement, versatility, or spacing that is needed for these two players to thrive. Furthermore, Fox desperately needs a legitimate big man to run the pick and roll with in order to further his development and Doncic and Jackson are the two worst options as a roll man for Fox out of the 5 guys featured in this piece. It is tough for me as the general manager to pick a player at 2 knowing the selection will hinder the development of the only other real prospect on your roster, Fox, while also knowing the situation you are throwing your number 2 pick into will hinder their development as well.

This is why if I was the Kings I would have a long conversation with Michael Porter Jr. I would pour over his medicals and make sure they checked out to the point where he could get back to his old self and the surgery would hold up for the most part. I would ask him what he wants to be as an NBA player and then tell him where we, as the Kings, think he’ll fit best on the roster. If he agrees and admits that his best spot on an NBA floor is the 4 mixed in with some small ball 5, which is a big if, and his medicals check out I would take him at 2, barring that a trade can’t be made to get Doncic and Jackson. I think all of Bagley, Porter, and Bamba fit with Fox and help both parties but there are some unanswerable question, pre draft, with Bamba and Bagley that make me pause at 2. With Bamba it is simple, the current production and ability doesn’t match that of a number 2 pick. So while he checks all of the boxes next to Fox theoretically, it is all projection and with the other options at 2 I can’t take Bamba as he is simply so far behind the other guys. With Bagley, it’s all about the defensive side of the ball. It is so hard to find the perfect frontcourt fit next to Bagley and if that frontcourt fit can’t be found how valuable is Bagley at the 5 on offense when he’s giving up plenty of points at the 5 on defense. A higher end outcome for Bagley is Amar’e Stoudemire but how valuable would Amar’e have been if he didn’t have Shawn Marion at the 4 next to him to space the floor, protect the rim, and guard on the perimeter all at very good levels. Prospects like Marion don’t come around often which is what makes Jaren Jackson so valuable in that he can play the Marion role. Therefore if I’m the Kings, am I willing to role the dice on Bagley and hope I can find the perfect front-court partner to play next to him. I’m honestly not sure. What I do know is if Porter and his medicals are able to answer all of my pre draft questions at a satisfactory level, the answer to the Bagley question is no, I would not draft Marvin Bagley. I would draft Michael Porter. Porter is able to play the 4 at a legitimate level already with his ball skills so his defense isn’t nearly the hindrance it is to Bagley, whose offensive value is largely derived from playing the 5. This gives me no real questions about Porter besides intangible things and injuries.

If Porter failed to satisfy in terms of intangibles, a word I hate to use because I don’t think Porter is a bad guy, and medicals I’d honestly understand anyone of Bagley, Jackson, and Doncic. Furthermore I don’t know which one of the 3 I’d take. This is why the Kings pick is so fascinating to me as it creates legitimate ripple effects. If the Kings pick Doncic or Jaren Jackson we might not ever see what they could’ve been fully optimized which is incredibly unfortunate considering the Hawks are a perfect fit for Jaren Jackson at 3 and the Grizzlies are a great spot for Doncic at 4. To add onto this disappointment if the Kings pick one of these 2 a freak athlete like Fox might never be properly unleashed. However, if the Kings take Bagley there is a legitimate chance he might simply not be that valuable. To add insult to injury if the Kings pick Bagley, and he isn’t valuable, it is likely Jaren Jackson will go 3 to the Hawks and Luka Doncic will go 4 to the Grizzlies where I think they will both thrive almost immediately.

When looking back at this draft the Kings pick will be the pivotal point of not only the draft but the careers of Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson, and De’Aaron Fox. Ultimately all three have the chance to be dynamic players if used optimally. The question is will it happen. It all depends on what the Kings do.