Broadcaster predicted to suffer drop in sign-ups as analysts say growth in traditional TV business has stalled

This article is more than 6 years old

This article is more than 6 years old

BSkyB is facing its first fall in TV subscribers in 15 years as pressure mounts from rivals including BT and Netflix.

BSkyB has added satellite pay-TV subscribers with such reliability – every quarter since the late 1990s – that former chief executive James Murdoch successfully predicted in 2004 that it would hit 10 million customers by the end of the decade.

Since then growth has sunk from about 100,000 a quarter to anaemic levels, as Sky has tapped out most of the households willing to pay for relatively expensive TV packages.

Analysts at Berenberg and Credit Suisse predict a fall of 5,000 and 15,000 traditional TV customers respectively when Sky reports its results for the three months to the end of March on Thursday.

"Over the last three years, growth in the traditional TV business has effectively ground to a halt," said Omar Sheikh, analyst at Credit Suisse. "If BSkyB can find growth selling more of its other products to customers and that generates profitable growth, that should be good enough for shareholders. It is now a triple-play business."

BSkyB has been shielding the dwindling TV subscriber numbers by using a wider reporting method that takes in sign-ups to its cheaper online service Now TV, launched partly in response to the rise of film and TV services such as Netflix and Amazon's LoveFilm.

Analysts put BSkyB's total TV customer growth in positive territory for the three months to the end of March, with total net additions between 40,000 and 60,000.

BSkyB added 77,000 total TV customers in the previous quarter.

Arguably of greater concern is the expected tailing off of the growth rate of its broadband business, the focus of its battle with BT Sport, which is likely to show a drop of up to 50% on the 110,000 the company signed up in the previous quarter.

Sky executives have told the City that this is not evidence of the impact of BT spending billions building its TV service – snatching prime rights such as Premier League and Champions League football – or winning the battle to keep broadband customers.

"Management are saying that it is due to the weather, that they are reliant on BT's infrastructure and that with the flooding the sign-up process has temporarily slowed," said one City source.

Intense competition has mounted from rivals such as BT, TalkTalk's budget TV service and low-priced online firms like Netflix, BSkyB has started to build a "pay light" strategy.

Over the past 18 months, Sky has been experimenting with low-cost brand Now TV – separately launching a £9.99 set-top box and an internet service that does not require a pay-TV subscription – and is targeting the 13 million Freeview households previously thought to be resistant to pay-TV.

Now TV users can choose to test pay-TV by paying as little as £4.99 a month for access to shows such as Game of Thrones on its entertainment channels; £8.99 a month for movies; or £9.99 for a "day pass" to sports, including Premier League football.

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