BALTIMORE, MD — There's no way Mother Nature would unleash a repeat of last year's record-setting blizzard on Maryland, is there? The chances seem small, according to a longterm weather forecast for winter 2016 just released by the experts at the National Weather Service, but other scientists disagree.

Forecasters say the weather phenomenon known as La Nina is likely to play a big factor. It favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S. So, what does that mean for Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic states? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday put the region in a fuzzy "either/or" sort of category, saying there are equal chances of more precipitation or less precipitation for Maryland, Virginia and the Northeast.



But private forecast services, including the Atmospheric Environmental Research, say the Mid-Atlantic region should bundle up for a cold winter. Its scientists use a model based on Arctic Oscillation, in which large areas of "blocking" high pressure develop at high latitudes, which forces cold air from the Arctic south into much of the United States. "The signals are strong right now for a cold winter in the East," meteorologist Judah Cohen, told The Washington Post.

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His winter forecast model shows plunging winter temperatures chilling much of the country, from the Dakotas all the way down to Georgia, and encompassing Maryland and Virginia.

And, the Capital Weather Gang says forecaster Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics issued his prediction for a cold and snowy winter in the East four months ago. His forecast calls for snowfall 120-150 percent of average in Washington, D.C.



Last year, the Mid-Atlantic region suffered through an intensifying El Niño weather pattern that brought three feet of snow to much of Maryland and Virginia in a January 2016 storm, closing roads for days, schools for a week and trapping residents indoors.

"This climate outlook provides the most likely outcome for the upcoming winter season, but it also provides the public with a good reminder that winter is just up ahead and it's a good time to prepare for typical winter hazards, such as extreme cold and snowstorms," said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter." >>>Click here for the whole NOAA winter forecast<<<