The AFL’s premier provider of statistics, Champion Data, has released a table that shows where sides should be on ladder based on how good their goalkicking has been so far in 2017.

The “expected scores” are determined by whether a shot on goal should be converted based on the league average.

So far across the opening six rounds of the season, eight results should have been reversed according to Champion Data’s findings, with Collingwood and Melbourne both losing two games they should have won.

The Pies should have won their round one clash with the Bulldogs by five points instead of losing by 14, and they should have beaten Essendon by four on ANZAC Day, rather than losing by 18.

Melbourne lost back-to-back games against Geelong and Fremantle in rounds three and four, although they should have turned 29 and two-point losses into one and 12-point victories respectively.

Matches in which results should have been overturned

Fremantle have been the beneficiaries of the opposition’s inaccuracy this season, beating both the Bulldogs and Melbourne when they should have lost.

Expected scores ladder to round six

Champion Data also released the differential in sides’ for and against based on the expected scores, with Adelaide and Geelong both well above average.

The Crows have had an unbelievable start to the season offensively, putting up 134.3 points a game, but the expected scores system believes they should be averaging 120.2 a game, meaning the undefeated side are gaining 14.1 points a game because of their straight kicking.

Geelong are second in the league with a differential of +12.0, while Brisbane (+7.2) and GWS (+6.5) round out the top four.

The Western Bulldogs (-12.0), St Kilda (-8.4) and Collingwood (-8.2) are the worst sides in the competition when it comes to poor kicking.