Murray's three keys and prediction to Nevada-New Mexico

Reno Gazette-Journal sports writer Chris Murray breaks down the Nevada basketball team's game against New Mexico.

New Mexico (14-10, 6-6 MW) at Nevada (7-16, 3-8)

When: Saturday, 7 p.m

Where: Lawlor Events Center (capacity 11,536)

Radio/TV: 94.5 FM/ESPN2

Internet: None

Betting line: New Mexico by 5

Three keys for Nevada to win

1. Defend without fouling: New Mexico has developed a trend in MW play. In its six conference wins, it get to the free throw line with regularity (21.2 attempts/game). In its six conference losses, it doesn't get to the line (12.8 attempts/game). Nevada is coming off its worst defensive effort of the season and gets a so-so offensive team in New Mexico. If Nevada defends without fouling, it should limit the Lobos.

2. Lots of offensive rebounds: This is a matchup of the MW's best offensive rebounding team (Nevada) against its best defensive rebounding team (New Mexico). The Pack figures to shoot a low percentage (New Mexico holds MW foes to a league-best 39 percent shooting), so Nevada needs to capitalize off second-chance points against a team that's good at limiting teams to one shot per possession.

3. Go on some runs: The Wolf Pack has rarely fed of its home crowd and gone on extended runs this season, spurts of 10-2 or 8-0 that can change the complexion of a game. A lot of that is because the Wolf Pack struggles to score, but Nevada needs to go on some long runs and make New Mexico respond. The Wolf Pack has lost four straight conference home games and needs to give its fans something to cheer about.

Prediction

Chris Murray: Nevada 60, New Mexico 57: I'm getting a little tired of picking against Nevada every game, although it's worked for the most part. New Mexico is a solid team but also coming off four straight losses and defeats in five of their last six games (the lone win was over San Jose State). New Mexico is a good defensive team but has struggled on offense, so this should be a close one. The Wolf Pack doesn't have too many shots left to get a win this season, but this is one of the best of them. I'll take the upset and call for Nevada to sneak out a win. Season record: 18-5