Article content continued

Horgan hit on the major planks of his platform, including housing affordability, health care and education. He encouraged volunteers to get out and rally their neighbours with 16 days left before the election. He also touched upon Liberal scandals, and elicited a chorus of boos and chants of “shame” from the crowd when he mentioned B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark.

“I just cannot wait to be your premier and the premier for the rest of British Columbia that’s been ignored for the past 16 years,” said Horgan.

Solid speech. Energetic rally. Not quite as good as that time in 1974 when Ted Nugent shot a flaming arrow from the Commodore stage into a target above the bar, just about burning the place down in the process. But all in all, pretty darn good for the NDP.

Yet despite all that, here’s a scenario that could easily play out May 9: The NDP thump the Liberals hard in the Lower Mainland. And still lose the election.

To understand why that’s a possibility, let’s start with the math behind the ridings the NDP needs to win government. The magic number is 10 new seats, to increase the party’s share from 35 at the dissolution of the legislature to the 45 required to form a solid majority government.

More than half of B.C.’s 87 ridings are in the Lower Mainland, if you go as far as Chilliwack. So it’s smart campaigning for the NDP to focus there. The leader’s tour can hit three or four ridings a day and pick up substantial media coverage.

But many of the Metro ridings are basically locked in for each party. In a normal election, there’s maybe a dozen good races, where advantages shift due to boundary adjustments, party momentum and local issues.