To his credit, horse-trading with the crossbenchers and pragmatic compromise did deliver him his two centrepiece reforms – better union governance and resurrection of the building industry watchdog – along with a backpacker tax that should never have taken so long to lock in. The price of the workplace relations successes has been high: a near-death double dissolution election then having to bow to protectionism in procurement and accept a delay of tough measures against errant building unions just to get the bills through the Senate. Still, as Mr Turnbull says: "The alternative was exactly what we had in the last parliament, which was nothing. Zero." We agree. The vocational education sector is getting a much-needed overhaul, too, and tougher anti-terrorism laws have won support in both houses. But the final months of 2016 were notable for another reason: the spectre of Donald Trump. The Prime Minister tacitly acknowledged as much in his year-end speech to the House. Arguing that "post-truth" politics had no place here, Mr Turnbull said the Australian people "are weary of the political games, the sense that politicians say one thing and could easily mean another, and that our promises are throwaway lines with a shelf life of a carton of milk". Words are always cheaper than deeds. In announcing his challenge to Tony Abbott's leadership 15 months ago, Mr Turnbull said Australia needed a style of economic leadership "that respects the people's intelligence, that explains these complex issues and then sets out the course of action we believe we should take and makes a case for it".

Despite a relatively strong economy in Sydney and Melbourne, the Turnbull government has not embraced tax or economic reform. It has not tackled needs-based school funding. It almost lost the July election. People on the left rebelled over Mr Turnbull's kowtowing to the right and fears for Medicare. Those on the right rebelled to protect their superannuation tax breaks. Many turned to minor parties. The coalition now has to fight for every piece of legislation against Senate crossbenchers including Pauline Hanson's One Nation, which is drawing support from those disaffected by elitist politics. Mr Turnbull is increasingly burdened by his need to assuage Abbott supporters. Labor leader Bill Shorten used the last question time of the year to drive home that message, saying the Prime Minister had backed down on everything he once believed in to keep his leadership so why wouldn't he back down on the backpacker tax. After a year of at least some self-control, Mr Abbott wants a cabinet post and his supporters believe he can return to the leadership. Mr Shorten expects to be facing off against Foreign Minister Julie Bishop or Mr Abbott at the next election. The Prime Minister's polling is weak at best. The Coalition trails Labor 49 per cent to 51 per cent on a two-party preferred basis in the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, but a record 34 per cent first-preference support for minor parties and independents tells the real story. Many voters are just not buying the nice words from Mr Turnbull. Poor performances within cabinet ministers are not helping, either. Attorney-General George Brandis in particular remains a liability, having bungled the hate speech reforms, appointed Liberal mates to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal and sought then failed to control how and to whom the solicitor-general could give advice. Senator Brandis faces a senate inquiry on the latter in relation to an alleged deal with Western Australia that would have cost the Commonwealth money.

Many expect him to be shifted out of cabinet in a reshuffle that could revitalise the government, just as the reshuffle early this year relieved some pressure. Before the July election we said that because Labor remained chained to reform-resistant and ethically challenged elements of the union movement, Mr Turnbull deserved a solid majority so he could deliver on his potential. We are still waiting.