A lot of discussion right now is based on how broken the level 25 talents are for some heroes. Some of them seem to defy existing norms and expectations in evaluating strength, as the only similar existing case we have is Invoker getting circular Deafening Blast when Quas/Wex/Exort is at max level.

As pointed out by Anthony Hodgson, considering the level 25 talents in a vacuum is mostly unreasonable, given that players so rarely get even close to max level.

This is a fair point, but given the fact that the experience system has been rebalanced, it might end up being a defining factor in longer games. The new level 25 XP requirement is similar to the old level 23 XP requirement, and there are other changes which will let you get to max level faster:

[major] Abbadon, Bane, Bounty Hunter, Broodmother, Dragon Knight, Eldar Titan, Invoker, Jakiro, Keeper of the Light, Legion Commander, Omniknight, Riki, Shadow Shaman, Techies, Tidehunter, Timbersaw, Tusk, Undying, Venomancer, Visage, Witchdoctor all have level 1 or 2 talents to get XP faster.

[major] There’s now 4 Bounty Runes per 2 minutes.

[moderate] TOME OF KNOWLEDGE: XP rescaled from 425 to 500/600/700/800/etc. per consumed Tome of Knowledge on your team

[minor] Lane creeps now give 50% of experience when denied by neutrals rather than 35% (normal player denies give 50% experience)

[minor] Illusions now give Gold and XP bounties

[very minor] Tempest Double gold/XP bounty increased from 160 to 180

The kill XP has been slightly nerfed relative to 6.88, but it seems mostly minor.

Given all of these changes it’s clear that getting to 25 is a lot more likely in 7.00 than in 6.88— probably equivalent to ~level 22 is at the moment. To be conservative I’ve used level 22 in my the calculations, although for some heroes it might be closer to ~current 21, or even 20.5, based on the magnitude of their XP bonuses.

Let’s look at pro 6.88 games, to see the distribution of the number of heroes that get to level 22 or above (~ new level 25). As you can see, in only 19.53% of games do we see 2 or more heroes getting to level 22 (in ~89.4% of these games it was 1 from each faction).

| Num Heroes @22+ | Num Games | Percent | 1 - Sum |

|-----------------|-----------|---------|---------|

| 0 | 1609 | 57.44% | 42.56% |

| 1 | 412 | 14.71% | 27.85% |

| 2 | 233 | 8.32% | 19.53% |

| 3 | 168 | 6.00% | 13.53% |

| 4 | 139 | 4.96% | 8.57% |

| 5 | 103 | 3.68% | 4.89% |

| 6 | 63 | 2.25% | 2.64% |

| 7 | 37 | 1.32% | 1.32% |

| 8 | 21 | 0.75% | 0.57% |

| 9 | 10 | 0.36% | 0.21% |

| 10 | 6 | 0.21% | 0.00% |

What if we only were to consider games longer than 35 minutes (the current patch’s average is around 38 minutes)? This obviously skews the distribution heavily towards more heroes getting higher levels, but to what degree?

| Num Heroes @22+ | Num Games | Percent | 1 - Sum |

|-----------------|-----------|---------|---------|

| 0 | 287 | 20.47% | 79.53% |

| 1 | 339 | 24.18% | 55.35% |

| 2 | 229 | 16.33% | 39.02% |

| 3 | 168 | 11.98% | 27.03% |

| 4 | 139 | 9.91% | 17.12% |

| 5 | 103 | 7.35% | 9.77% |

| 6 | 63 | 4.49% | 5.28% |

| 7 | 37 | 2.64% | 2.64% |

| 8 | 21 | 1.50% | 1.14% |

| 9 | 10 | 0.71% | 0.43% |

| 10 | 6 | 0.43% | 0.00% |

A massive drop in 0 heroes reaching level 22, and roughly double the odds as before for games having 2+ heroes @ 22+.

Finally, let’s look at the heroes that most frequently get to level 22+, to see if there’s a common pattern. As you’d expect, all of these are 1 or 2 roles. They mostly all have an accelerated farming mechanic (some sort of AoE clear), and many of them have the ability to split push safely. Wraith King and Bloodseeker are exceptions, but have relatively small samples and are picked in niche situations.

| Hero | # Games at >= 22 | T.Games | % games |

|------------------|------------------|---------|---------|

| Anti-Mage | 77 | 152 | 50.66% |

| Meepo | 14 | 28 | 50.00% |

| Morphling | 125 | 345 | 36.23% |

| Ember Spirit | 55 | 152 | 36.18% |

| Spectre | 24 | 69 | 34.78% |

| Wraith King | 10 | 29 | 34.48% |

| Medusa | 57 | 167 | 34.13% |

| Slark | 147 | 432 | 34.03% |

| Alchemist | 101 | 310 | 32.58% |

| Timbersaw | 234 | 734 | 31.88% |

| Storm Spirit | 116 | 372 | 31.18% |

| Sven | 118 | 387 | 30.49% |

| Bloodseeker | 6 | 20 | 30.00% |

| Phantom Lancer | 19 | 67 | 28.36% |

| Templar Assassin | 50 | 180 | 27.78% |

This might also suggest that other non-1/2 role heroes that are able to split push alone could become more popular if a trend towards rushing to level 25 develops, as they are able to acquire experience faster (naturally, by split pushing) and get the max level perks. Nature’s Prophet and Broodmother could fit into this category easily, and Broodmother’s 2nd tier talent helping in this regard boosting XP gains.

When viewed as part of the bigger picture — this information suggests that ceteris paribus unless we see a fundamental shift in the tempo and consequently the duration of the game on average, it’s unlikely that many teams will have part of their strategy involving a hero getting to level 25. At the same time, expecting to not see psychology factor into the equation seems a bit shortsighted. All a metagame convergence takes is a few top teams to start doing something (like, rushing level 25 on a core)and many others will follow suit (even if it’s not statistically optimal).

I think the one change which really factors into this is the Tome of Knowledge scaling XP change. Since their introduction, over 90% of the Tomes are consumed by supports or offlaners in pro games. This is primarily because getting a support up to level 6 is a huge power spike at the 10 minute mark — whereas most cores have already surpassed this spike and are far away from their level 11. At the 20 minute mark, cores are past the level 11 spike and the remaining spike (level 16) is mostly underwhelming. My belief is that given the more regular power spikes from talents and ultimates being so spread out (level 10, 12, 15, 18 and 20 are all ultimate or talent levels) — we will see a lot fewer supports getting the 2nd and 3rd Tomes — and the real question will be which core becomes the most optimal to stack XP on. This stacking might in itself lend itself towards a fast level 25 for a single core (remember it’s still a really massive climb from level 20 to 25), but in my eyes this is where that scenario ends — it’s unlikely we’ll see games go on long enough commonly for way more cores to get max level. Even a significant shift from 6.88’s averages would only lend itself to perhaps 3 heroes per side reaching max level in 15% of their games.

This is obviously hard to predict — given how we actually have a very poor understanding of how much faster or slower the patch will eventually become compared to how it is in 6.88. Shrines have the potential to support both turtling and deathball strategies depending on how teams learn to use & abuse them in the right way, and there’s always small things that are commonly overlooked when assessing patch notes that turn out to be massively important looking back from a mature meta.

At the very least, should the average game become much faster or slower — the talent changes act as a really excellent form of chaos in very close late-game scenarios. In the same way that Moon Shard, Alchemist Aghanim’s reworks and Level 2 Boots of Travel added late-game ways to spend gold with marginal benefits (which often breaks up very close games); these talent changes (and I guess the backpacks too) will add further late-game power spikes for teams which could topple and disrupt late-game deadlocks. Just don’t expect teams to draft Axe with the idea of a “+100 Battle Hunger DPS” situation in mind. Drafting’s focus still seems to me about strength in the laning stages and the mid-game, it’s simply not reasonable to ignore those and draft thinking about rare late-game stalemate situations.

@followNoxville