Kentucky voters are split on Rand Paul's 2016 plans

James R. Carroll | The Courier-Journal

Kentuckians are evenly divided over whether Sen. Rand Paul should run only for re-election to the Senate or for the White House, according to a new Bluegrass Poll.

But what might really encourage the Republican lawmaker is that nearly a quarter of the state's registered voters — 23% — have come around to supporting what Paul apparently wants to do: run for both offices at the same time. When the poll asked Kentuckians in late August about the issue, only 15% supported a dual candidacy.

Nineteen percent of registered voters think the state's junior senator should stick to running again for his current job in 2016, while the same percentage back Paul's quest for the presidency — which he is all but certain to announce soon. The August survey, published Sept. 1, found 24% supporting a Senate-only run, and 22% behind a White House-only campaign.

In the new poll, conducted for The Courier-Journal, The Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV in Louisville and WKYT-TV in Lexington, almost two-thirds of the 1,917 registered voters surveyed said they oppose changing state law to help Paul seek two offices at once — the same result as in last August's poll.

Over half of those who identified themselves as politically conservative want to leave unchanged the law that bars candidates from appearing on a state ballot more than once in most cases.

The survey also found that 30% of Kentuckians — predominantly Democrats — don't want Paul to seek either office. About a third of voters felt the same way last August.

The Republican Party of Kentucky's executive committee last weekend gave preliminary approval to changing the state GOP presidential primary in May to a caucus in March, a procedure for selecting delegates to the party's national convention that would not run afoul of state law.

Paul has been traveling across the nation for months testing his message of smaller government and respect for individual liberties before audiences ranging from techies in California to gun club members in New Hampshire. He has said he expects to announce his intentions this month or next.

Ken Shay, 54, a grocery clerk from Erlanger, Ky., said Paul should run for Senate and leave a presidential bid for later. Shay said that if Paul seeks the presidency while trying to hold his Senate seat, "he may knock out (another Republican) who deserves to be in there."

"I just don't think it is right to be able to run for two offices at the same time," said Shay, who said he is a very conservative Republican.

Paul needs more experience before running for president and should pay more attention to his home state, Shay added. "I don't see him enough in Kentucky."

As for the state election law, "I don't think that's right to change the law for one individual," he said.

But Steven Goodwin, 59, of Alexandria, Ky., said the senator should run for both the Senate and president.

"I think a man ought to be able to do what he wants to do," Goodwin said. A disabled former printer, he describes himself as a "hard-core Democrat," but adds he has voted for Republicans.

Goodwin hasn't decided on a candidate for the 2016 presidential race yet but likes Paul's emphasis on protecting civil liberties and his "get up-and-go" energy.

"If he's got the gumption to go for it, go for it," Goodwin said.

Quenton Caudill, 84, of Morehead, Ky., also thinks Paul should seek two offices simultaneously.

"In reality, of course, when a politician runs like that, it's been done in the past — he's just protecting himself," Caudill said. "He'd still like to be senator if he loses the other, and the odds are against him in the presidential race — very much so."

Caudill, who retired after 50 years of running a local insurance agency, is a Republican but doesn't think Paul is conservative enough for him.

"I think he's doing a good job for the state of Kentucky," Caudill said, but in a GOP presidential contest he said he would prefer someone other than Paul, perhaps former neurosurgeon Ben Carson or South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Dorothy Glass, 64, of Louisville, is among those who don't want to see Paul run for anything.

"I'm not a fan of his at all," said Glass, a pre-K teacher's assistant and Democrat. "I don't believe in his Republican mentality of a trickle-down economy, that 'it'll come to you eventually.' "

Paul's vision of a smaller federal government means "he wants to take away everything," Glass said.

State law shouldn't be changed to let Paul run for two offices because the senator should be forced to choose what he wants to do, she said, adding that the senator is a political opportunist who really isn't interested in the Senate.

"I think his goal is to run for president like his dad did," Glass said.

The poll was conducted March 3-8. On the question of whether Paul should run for the Senate, the presidency or both, the margin of error was plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. On the question of whether state law should be changed, the margin of error was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

Follow @JRCarrollNews on Twitter.