Polling shows Malcolm Turnbull is still by far the preferred PM, but when it comes to many of the actual policies that are in play this election the public put their trust in Bill Shorten. This is where the battle will be fought, writes Peter Lewis.

"Mr Harbourside Mansion," as Tony Abbott's former chief of staff has so graciously dubbed him, continues to lose authority as the election campaign ambles along.

Last week's Essential Report showed the Prime Minister's dissatisfaction trumping his satisfaction levels for the first time. The net two point deficit (40 approve - 42 disapprove) represented a dramatic 38 point decline in favourability since November.

Meanwhile, Bill Shorten's figures are incrementally improving as more Australians shift from the "don't know" column in the harsh light of a head-to-head election contest.

On preferred prime minister, Turnbull continues to lead Shorten by 15 points (43-28), although this is also significantly down from a November high of 41 points (55-14).

These topline figures have painted the picture that is fast becoming the accepted narrative: Turnbull is under-performing and, hamstrung by his conservative base, has squandered what was a dominant position to set up at least two terms of centrist Liberal rule.

That said, the expectation remains that - on these numbers - the Coalition will limp back into power with a significantly reduced majority, carried by the PM's diminished but still conclusive lead as preferred leader.

New figures released by Essential this week adds texture to this analysis - and throws up a potential curveball that would help explain an election upset if one did eventuate on July 2.

On our index of personal attributes Turnbull still outranks Shorten on most positives, while Shorten out-rates on the negatives - with a couple of notable exceptions.

Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten Difference Out of touch with ordinary people 63% 42% +21 Intelligent 76% 60% +16 A capable leader 55% 43% +12 Visionary 40% 28% +12 Arrogant 51% 40% +11 Good in a crisis 48% 37% +11 More honest than most politicians 36% 26% +10 Trustworthy 37% 31% +6 Superficial 48% 44% +4 Intolerant 34% 30% +4 Narrow-minded 41% 40% +1 Aggressive 31% 30% +1 Hard-working 60% 60% - Understands the problems facing Australia 47% 50% -3 Erratic 34% 37% -3

While seen as more intelligent, more honest and better in a crisis - Turnbull is seen as significantly more out of touch with ordinary people and more arrogant.

Now arrogance and out of touch have never been a major problem for higher office - think Labor heroes Whitlam and Keating - but it does create a frame on Turnbull which the ALP is exploiting every day of the campaign, be it talking about corporate tax cuts, health funding or the NBN: "It just goes to show how out of touch ... yada yada yada."

Ratings on party trust to handle specific issues shows the Coalition maintaining a lead on their core brand strengths of economic management and national security; while Labor's sweet spot is protecting jobs and industries.

But a separate series of questions linking specific politics with trust in the individual leaders makes for better reading for the Labor side.

Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten Don't know Difference Regulating the banking and finance sector 33% 27% 39% +6 Supporting Australia's manufacturing industries 30% 31% 39% -1 Ensuring big companies pay their share of tax 28% 34% 38% -6 Protecting the Great Barrier Reef 21% 27% 52% -6 Funding hospitals 27% 35% 38% -8 Addressing climate change 21% 29% 50% -8 Making housing more affordable for first home buyers 23% 32% 44% -9 Looking after the needs of pensioners 21% 35% 44% -14 Funding public schools 24% 40% 36% -16 Maintaining workers' wages and conditions 21% 43% 35% -22

When it comes to these policies - all in play this election - the public say they trust Shorten over Turnbull in all but the regulation of banks. (Ex-banker? Knows how to keep the bastards honest?)

On funding public schools and hospitals, looking after pensioners, affordable housing, addressing climate change and protecting the reef, the public are more likely to put their trust in Shorten. And on the core Labor brand of workers' wages and conditions the lead is commanding.

Yes, the don't knows remain high, but there is clear evidence here that when the campaign focuses on these issues rather than simply personality traits, the Labor challenger is more than holding his own.

And herein may lie the lesson for Labor - the best way to undermine the Turnbull supremacy is to focus on what he does rather than who he is. And vice versa. As for the Liberals, despite the best efforts of the del-cons, Turnbull is still their best bet

Peter Lewis is a director of Essential Media Communications (EMC), a public affairs and research company specialising in campaigning for progressive social and political organisations. He tweets at@PeterLewisEMC.