Donnelle Eller, and Kevin Hardy

DesMoines

With some experts predicting that Iowa's stumbling ag industry could pull the state into a contraction, here's a snapshot at some other economic sectors in Iowa:

‘Just muddling along’

Iowa bankers are projecting little economic change in the coming months.

The Iowa Bankers Association regularly surveys its members to gauge statewide loan demand and banking strength. About half of bankers have responded to the latest round of questioning, and most are projecting slow or no growth, with about a third believing the economy is weakening, President John Sorensen said.

“The vast majority believe we’re at a point where there’s just not a lot of change,” he said. “We’re kind of just muddling along.”

Still, Sorensen says many Iowans should feel optimistic about the state’s economy, which he said weathered the Great Recession better than many parts of the country. Iowans are increasingly willing to invest and spend, he said.

MORE: Cracks start to show in Iowa economy

“For most people, their economy is what they do every day,” he said. “And I would think most Iowans have a fairly positive view, especially relative to where we stood six years ago.”

But there are signs that Iowa’s housing market is slowing after a strong performance in 2015, said Dan Vessely, president of Iowa Bankers Mortgage Corp., a for-profit subsidiary of the Iowa Bankers Association.

Even with low interest rates, he projects the company’s mortgages will be down 15 percent this year as buyers grow concerned with the market.

“While we’re seeing steady home purchases, we are not seeing any significant increases so far this year,” he said. “I would say, given where rates are, that would concern me a little bit.”

Consumers remain confident

So far, economic concerns don’t seem to have shaken consumers’ confidence. New car purchases in Iowa continued to expand last year, as national sales topped the previous sales record from 2000.

Erin McGregor, president of the six-store chain McGregors Furniture, said customers are more willing to spend now than a few years ago. The company operates stores in Coralville, Fort Dodge, Mason City, Marshalltown, Ottumwa and Waterloo.

McGregor said January sales were strong (though she said it was tough to get on TV with so many political ads inundating the state). And so far February spending is strong.

“I don’t know what’s going on here in 2016,” she said. “I like it, whatever it is.”

MORE: Farm income to fall in 2016 amid low grain prices

Customers were stingy with big-ticket items such as furniture in the years following the Great Recession, she said. Only last year did it seem like customers were comfortable spending on the more expensive models of mattresses and sofas, she said.

McGregor noted that fashion trends that sweep the furniture market tend to start on the coasts and take months to make their way to her Iowa stores.

“It seems to be the same with those financial things,” she said. “We tend to feel them later than everyone else.”

Economy helped by gas prices?

Gasbuddy.com’s Patrick DeHaan, a senior petroleum analyst, said Iowa and the rest of the nation will continue to see low prices a couple more weeks as refineries move from winter blends to more expensive cleaner summer blends.

Gas prices in Iowa — averaging $1.82 a gallon in Des Moines and $1.73 a gallon statewide — are expected to drop 10 cents to 20 cents lower as the winter blend inventories are used up. Then prices will begin to tick higher.

"We’ll see the return of $2 gasoline by April or May," he said. "But even this summer, gas prices will be in the low $2 price range."

Last summer, gasoline prices were in the high $2-a-gallon range, DeHaan said.

Why are gas prices so low? "It's a large laundry list of factors," he said.

Large oil supplies are driving prices below $30 a barrel. "China's economic slowdown is one factor," he said, adding that China is the world's second-largest economy.

"Iran is pumping oil and can sell it on the global market" with embargoes lifted, DeHaan said. "And Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are pumping oil at levels we haven't seen in awhile."

DeHaan said consumers tell the company the lower gas prices help them pay bills and put a little more money in their pocket. But, he said, gas prices have fallen so slowly, it's probably had little overall impact on the economy.