Stephan Shakespeare analyses an abrupt drop in public support for Britain staying in the European Union

The remarkable thing about our EU referendum tracker is how much it moves. Within the last year we've had a ten-point lead for staying in, and a ten-point lead for leaving.

A week ago 41 per cent said they would vote to stay in, and 40 per cent said they would leave. Exclusively for Red Box, YouGov asked the question just four days later, and those numbers have moved to 35 per cent and 44 per cent, a 9 per cent lead for "out".

That swing is consistent across supporters of Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Conservatives (most Ukippers of course can't swing as much, with only 2 per cent wanting to stay in.) In spite of this, I remain convinced that in 2017 the "stay in" vote would prevail, if there was the merest fig leaf of a renegotiation success for Cameron, and he led a campaign for staying in.

We also asked: "Generally speaking, do you think immigration has a positive or negative impact on Britain?" 25 per cent say "positive", 51 per cent say "negative".

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See the full results