With just four games left in the season, the Dallas Cowboys are cruising right along, riding an 11-game winning streak. Are they an elite team this year? Or just beneficiaries of a soft schedule and no other dominant teams in the league this year?

I'm not sure how many of you are aware, but there aren't any far-and-away elite teams this year. Meaning teams that are dominant on 2-to-3 phases of the game. Cowboys? Great offense, poor defense. Patriots? Same story. Raiders? Yup.

Here's Football Outsiders just to give us some perspective:

The Year of No Great Teams has reached another pinnacle... or is it more appropriate to say nadir? New England has 19.9% DVOA and Dallas has 19.7% DVOA, making this the first time in the history of the DVOA ratings that the No. 1 team has been below 20%.

For a while it looked like the Eagles would be that great team this year, and then the offense fell apart. That leaves us with the Patriots, Cowboys, and (surprising) Raiders as the teams garnering the national attention for their success this year. In a year with no great teams, it's all relative, but in the end one team is going to win the Super Bowl and nobody is going to care just how good the rest of the league was that year.

Notable Quotes

Philip Rivers has had three interceptions returned for touchdowns this season. All three gave the Chargers' opponents the lead. Those mistakes represent only a few of San Diego's league-leading 25 giveaways (tied with the Jaguars) this season, but they might be the biggest. The Chargers head to Carolina this week. - ESPN

The Chargers’ defense has forced 24 turnovers this season, paced by NFL interceptions leader Casey Hayward. Annnnnd that’s almost been enough to offset the mess created by San Diego’s offense, which has coughed it up 25 times, third-most in the league. - Sports Illustrated

Bet you didn't know they've scored more points than any other AFC team. But more is needed for team with two more trips to Eastern time zone. - USA Today

Division Averages

Division Week 11 Average Week 14 Average Difference AFC West 9.772 9.000 0.772 NFC East 9.065 11.852 -2.787 AFC East 15.217 16.170 -0.953 NFC South 17.663 16.284 1.379 NFC North 19.185 17.682 1.503 AFC North 20.804 18.193 2.611 NFC West 18.587 20.091 -1.504 AFC South 21.707 22.727 -1.020

I'm sensing a trend here ...

AFC West back on top with the rest of the NFC East fading a bit. AFC South somehow got worse. Crazy to think where the Chargers would be if they played in the AFC South this year.

Stock Rising

Team Week 11 Average Week 14 Average Difference TB 25.277 15.227 10.050 PIT 14.576 7.773 6.803 BAL 16.466 11.364 5.102 DET 15.470 11.318 4.152 IND 22.902 20.227 2.675

Stock Falling

Team Week 11 Average Week 14 Average Difference PHI 9.038 18.909 -9.871 HOU 15.958 22.273 -6.315 ARI 14.538 17.909 -3.371 MIA 15.420 18.318 -2.898 CAR 20.352 23.091 -2.739

Subjective Average

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value 1 Cowboys 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 2 Patriots 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2.273 0.560 3 Raiders 3 3 3 5 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3.000 1.500 4 Seahawks 4 4 6 2 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4.364 -1.614 5 Chiefs 7 5 4 6 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4.818 -0.401 6 Broncos 9 7 5 10 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 6.909 -0.742 7 Lions 8 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 11 7 7.364 4.303 8 Falcons 10 8 10 4 8 12 12 6 8 6 9 8.455 -1.205 9 Steelers 5 9 11 13 11 9 10 9 10 9 8 9.455 7.878 10 Ravens 6 14 9 12 10 8 9 10 11 8 10 9.727 5.023 11 Giants 14 11 8 8 12 10 8 11 9 12 11 10.364 -1.281 12 Buccaneers 12 10 12 14 9 13 11 13 12 14 12 12.000 12.917 13 Redskins 13 12 14 9 15 11 14 12 13 10 13 12.364 -1.947 14 Dolphins 16 16 13 11 13 15 13 14 14 16 15 14.182 -0.432 15 Packers 11 13 21 22 14 14 15 17 16 18 14 15.909 3.091 16 Bills 18 15 20 23 18 16 18 15 17 15 20 17.727 1.856 17 Vikings 15 17 17 18 24 18 16 22 15 21 16 18.091 -2.174 18 Colts 25 18 18 20 16 17 19 24 22 22 17 19.818 3.349 19 Titans 19 19 19 21 21 23 20 23 19 17 18 19.909 -2.492 20 Chargers 21 22 15 16 20 20 23 19 21 20 22 19.909 1.424 21 Cardinals 17 21 25 26 19 19 21 20 20 13 21 20.182 -3.015 22 Texans 22 20 16 19 22 22 17 25 18 24 19 20.364 -8.447 23 Saints 26 25 22 15 17 21 22 18 24 27 23 21.818 -2.985 24 Eagles 20 24 23 17 26 25 24 21 23 19 24 22.364 -11.197 25 Bengals 24 23 24 27 23 24 25 16 25 23 25 23.546 -1.546 26 Panthers 23 26 26 24 25 26 26 26 26 25 26 25.364 -1.114 27 Rams 27 28 28 25 29 27 27 28 27 28 27 27.364 -1.864 28 Bears 28 27 29 30 27 28 29 27 28 26 28 27.909 1.174 29 Jets 29 30 27 28 30 29 28 29 29 30 29 28.909 -0.742 30 Jaguars 30 31 30 31 28 30 30 30 30 29 30 29.909 -0.076 31 49ers 31 29 31 29 32 31 31 31 31 32 31 30.818 0.099 32 Browns 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 32 31 32 31.818 0.099

Observations:

I know it's been 3 weeks between times I compiled the rankings, but the Cowboys remain the unanimous top pick. For the most part, pundits just go off win-loss records. Heck, even PFT says outright, "we always start with last year's Super Bowl winner at #1 until they lose."

Pretty consistent top 5. In fact, over 2 spots on average separate the Chiefs from the Broncos.

Half of the top 6 teams come from the AFC West. In fact, the Patriots are the only team in the AFC ranked above 75% of the AFC West. That means based on this list, the other 3 division winners in the conference would maybe be underdogs at home in the playoffs

Even though they have yet to win a game this year, some pundits aren't convinced about the Browns being the worst team in the NFL anymore, instead giving the nod to the 49ers.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value 1 Cowboys 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 2 Browns 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 32 31 32 0.386 0.110 3 Patriots 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 0.445 -0.242 4 Raiders 3 3 3 5 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 0.739 -0.379 5 Jaguars 30 31 30 31 28 30 30 30 30 29 30 0.793 0.240 6 Jets 29 30 27 28 30 29 28 29 29 30 29 0.900 0.213 7 Chiefs 7 5 4 6 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 0.936 -0.102 8 49ers 31 29 31 29 32 31 31 31 31 32 31 0.936 0.443 9 Seahawks 4 4 6 2 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 0.979 -0.185 10 Rams 27 28 28 25 29 27 27 28 27 28 27 0.979 -1.200 11 Panthers 23 26 26 24 25 26 26 26 26 25 26 0.979 -1.441 12 Bears 28 27 29 30 27 28 29 27 28 26 28 1.083 0.324 13 Lions 8 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 11 7 1.298 -3.162 14 Broncos 9 7 5 10 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 1.379 0.312 15 Buccaneers 12 10 12 14 9 13 11 13 12 14 12 1.477 -0.583 16 Dolphins 16 16 13 11 13 15 13 14 14 16 15 1.527 -1.818 17 Redskins 13 12 14 9 15 11 14 12 13 10 13 1.720 0.464 18 Titans 19 19 19 21 21 23 20 23 19 17 18 1.832 -0.951 19 Giants 14 11 8 8 12 10 8 11 9 12 11 1.872 -0.692 20 Steelers 5 9 11 13 11 9 10 9 10 9 8 1.924 -1.712 21 Ravens 6 14 9 12 10 8 9 10 11 8 10 2.049 -0.265 22 Chargers 21 22 15 16 20 20 23 19 21 20 22 2.353 -0.711 23 Falcons 10 8 10 4 8 12 12 6 8 6 9 2.388 0.909 24 Bills 18 15 20 23 18 16 18 15 17 15 20 2.416 -0.541 25 Eagles 20 24 23 17 26 25 24 21 23 19 24 2.638 -0.329 26 Bengals 24 23 24 27 23 24 25 16 25 23 25 2.641 -1.056 27 Texans 22 20 16 19 22 22 17 25 18 24 19 2.739 -0.356 28 Vikings 15 17 17 18 24 18 16 22 15 21 16 2.843 -0.252 29 Colts 25 18 18 20 16 17 19 24 22 22 17 2.886 0.062 30 Packers 11 13 21 22 14 14 15 17 16 18 14 3.204 -0.493 31 Cardinals 17 21 25 26 19 19 21 20 20 13 21 3.353 -1.543 32 Saints 26 25 22 15 17 21 22 18 24 27 23 3.639 0.815

Observations:

Cowboys remain unanimous, we knew that.

Pretty good confidence at the top and bottom of the rankings.

Packers, Cardinals, and Saints, three powerhouse teams that many thought would make it far in the playoffs this year are having down years. Some pundits are having a hard time reconciling that.

And really, who knows just what is going on in Indianapolis this year?

Objective Average

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value 1 Patriots 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 4 2 1 1 1.636 0.546 2 Cowboys 2 3 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 4 6 2.455 0.545 3 Seahawks 3 2 3 1 9 5 2 7 5 3 2 3.818 -0.182 4 Steelers 7 5 5 4 5 6 7 9 8 7 4 6.091 5.727 5 Broncos 11 4 4 8 12 4 9 5 6 5 3 6.455 0.181 6 Raiders 6 8 8 7 6 7 8 2 3 6 10 6.455 2.545 7 Falcons 4 7 7 6 13 3 6 6 7 9 5 6.636 1.364 8 Chiefs 8 6 6 5 19 8 10 3 4 2 13 7.636 0.364 9 Bills 16 10 9 23 10 13 13 13 15 11 8 12.818 -2.727 10 Vikings 14 11 11 15 23 10 4 19 13 13 9 12.909 -1.545 11 Ravens 9 12 10 19 7 14 11 15 9 16 21 13.000 5.182 12 Redskins 10 19 14 11 24 12 14 12 12 15 17 14.546 0.636 13 Lions 26 18 15 10 14 16 17 10 10 8 24 15.273 4.000 14 Eagles 5 15 12 25 11 9 15 21 16 22 19 15.455 -8.546 15 Cardinals 22 9 13 28 8 18 12 26 19 10 7 15.636 -3.727 16 Giants 13 21 18 17 17 17 19 11 11 17 18 16.273 -0.091 17 Saints 15 17 21 21 4 15 16 20 20 24 11 16.727 -1.181 18 Packers 12 16 16 14 22 20 24 16 18 14 12 16.727 2.091 19 Chargers 17 13 17 22 15 11 18 14 17 25 16 16.818 1.546 20 Buccaneers 20 22 20 16 21 19 22 8 14 18 23 18.455 7.181 21 Titans 18 25 24 13 3 23 5 23 23 27 20 18.546 1.272 22 Bengals 21 14 19 24 20 21 21 24 22 19 14 19.909 -1.454 23 Colts 25 23 22 12 18 22 25 17 21 20 22 20.636 2.000 24 Panthers 24 20 23 18 16 24 26 25 26 12 15 20.818 -4.363 25 Dolphins 19 24 25 20 25 26 20 18 24 21 25 22.455 -5.364 26 Texans 30 26 26 9 27 25 27 22 25 23 26 24.182 -4.182 27 Bears 23 30 28 29 26 27 23 28 28 29 29 27.273 1.182 28 Rams 28 27 27 26 30 29 28 27 27 26 31 27.818 -1.818 29 Jaguars 27 28 29 27 28 28 29 30 30 30 27 28.455 0.818 30 Jets 31 29 30 30 29 30 30 29 29 28 28 29.364 -1.637 31 49ers 29 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 30.727 -0.091 32 Browns 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 -0.273

Observations:

Patriots with more first place rankings (6) than the Cowboys (4) in the objective rankings.

Broncos and Raiders are actually tied in this list, but Raiders are climbing fast.

Aikman and FPI fairly down on the Chiefs, relatively speaking. Merely outliers or do they see something the others are missing? With 3 divisional games at home to close the season, I still like their chances for the playoffs or to win the division.

Pundits may not agree on Browns being worst, but the models are in full agreement.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value 1 Browns 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 -0.862 2 49ers 29 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 0.617 -0.264 3 Jets 31 29 30 30 29 30 30 29 29 28 28 0.881 -0.720 4 Patriots 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 4 2 1 1 0.881 -0.815 5 Jaguars 27 28 29 27 28 28 29 30 30 30 27 1.157 0.195 6 Cowboys 2 3 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 4 6 1.499 -0.455 7 Rams 28 27 27 26 30 29 28 27 27 26 31 1.527 -0.231 8 Steelers 7 5 5 4 5 6 7 9 8 7 4 1.564 -2.269 9 Raiders 6 8 8 7 6 7 8 2 3 6 10 2.189 -1.249 10 Bears 23 30 28 29 26 27 23 28 28 29 29 2.260 -0.311 11 Seahawks 3 2 3 1 9 5 2 7 5 3 2 2.328 -0.094 12 Falcons 4 7 7 6 13 3 6 6 7 9 5 2.532 -0.572 13 Dolphins 19 24 25 20 25 26 20 18 24 21 25 2.742 -1.739 14 Broncos 11 4 4 8 12 4 9 5 6 5 3 2.935 -0.403 15 Giants 13 21 18 17 17 17 19 11 11 17 18 3.078 -0.802 16 Bengals 21 14 19 24 20 21 21 24 22 19 14 3.204 1.015 17 Colts 25 23 22 12 18 22 25 17 21 20 22 3.625 0.102 18 Packers 12 16 16 14 22 20 24 16 18 14 12 3.744 -0.642 19 Chargers 17 13 17 22 15 11 18 14 17 25 16 3.762 -0.152 20 Redskins 10 19 14 11 24 12 14 12 12 15 17 3.917 -2.215 21 Bills 16 10 9 23 10 13 13 13 15 11 8 3.996 -0.506 22 Buccaneers 20 22 20 16 21 19 22 8 14 18 23 4.186 2.219 23 Ravens 9 12 10 19 7 14 11 15 9 16 21 4.221 1.064 24 Panthers 24 20 23 18 16 24 26 25 26 12 15 4.668 -1.261 25 Chiefs 8 6 6 5 19 8 10 3 4 2 13 4.696 0.390 26 Vikings 14 11 11 15 23 10 4 19 13 13 9 4.814 1.114 27 Texans 30 26 26 9 27 25 27 22 25 23 26 5.202 -2.556 28 Saints 15 17 21 21 4 15 16 20 20 24 11 5.327 0.366 29 Lions 26 18 15 10 14 16 17 10 10 8 24 5.561 -0.193 30 Eagles 5 15 12 25 11 9 15 21 16 22 19 5.727 1.926 31 Cardinals 22 9 13 28 8 18 12 26 19 10 7 7.049 0.024 32 Titans 18 25 24 13 3 23 5 23 23 27 20 7.750 -0.483

Observations:

Again, good consensus on top and bottom of the rankings.

Titans all over the board.

5 of the 7 least-consistently-ranked teams are NFC teams.

Packers were in the bottom 3 in the subjective list, but they're right in the middle of this Objective list.

Cardinals and Saints are in the bottom 5 here again. So really, who knows?

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value 1 Cowboys 1.000 2.455 1.727 0.273 2 Patriots 2.273 1.636 1.955 0.553 3 Seahawks 4.364 3.818 4.091 -0.898 4 Raiders 3.000 6.455 4.727 2.023 5 Chiefs 4.818 7.636 6.227 -0.019 6 Broncos 6.909 6.455 6.682 -0.280 7 Falcons 8.455 6.636 7.545 0.080 8 Steelers 9.455 6.091 7.773 6.803 9 Lions 7.364 15.273 11.318 4.152 10 Ravens 9.727 13.000 11.364 5.102 11 Giants 10.364 16.273 13.318 -0.685 12 Redskins 12.364 14.546 13.455 -0.656 13 Buccaneers 12.000 18.455 15.227 10.050 14 Bills 17.727 12.818 15.273 -0.436 15 Vikings 18.091 12.909 15.500 -1.860 16 Packers 15.909 16.727 16.318 2.591 17 Cardinals 20.182 15.636 17.909 -3.371 18 Dolphins 14.182 22.455 18.318 -2.898 19 Chargers 19.909 16.818 18.364 1.484 20 Eagles 22.364 15.455 18.909 -9.871 21 Titans 19.909 18.546 19.227 -0.610 22 Saints 21.818 16.727 19.273 -2.084 23 Colts 19.818 20.636 20.227 2.675 24 Bengals 23.546 19.909 21.727 -1.500 25 Texans 20.364 24.182 22.273 -6.315 26 Panthers 25.364 20.818 23.091 -2.739 27 Bears 27.909 27.273 27.591 1.178 28 Rams 27.364 27.818 27.591 -1.841 29 Jets 28.909 29.364 29.136 -1.189 30 Jaguars 29.909 28.455 29.182 0.371 31 49ers 30.818 30.727 30.773 0.004 32 Browns 31.818 32.000 31.909 -0.087

Observations:

Cowboys keep the top spot overall, but the Patriots are getting close.

Interesting, teams are paired up all the way down the list with like-rankings. Cowboys-Patriots. Seahawks-Raiders. Chiefs-Broncos. Falcons-Steelers.

Sharp drop-off from the Steelers to the Lions with almost 4 spots separating them.

A larger drop-off from the Panthers to the Bears with exactly 4.5 spots separating them.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value 1 Browns 31.818 32.000 0.288 -0.348 2 Patriots 2.273 1.636 0.767 -0.548 3 49ers 30.818 30.727 0.794 0.074 4 Jets 28.909 29.364 0.919 -0.314 5 Jaguars 29.909 28.455 1.230 0.405 6 Cowboys 1.000 2.455 1.286 -0.395 7 Rams 27.364 27.818 1.302 -0.703 8 Bears 27.909 27.273 1.801 -0.086 9 Seahawks 4.364 3.818 1.807 -0.119 10 Broncos 6.909 6.455 2.304 -0.141 11 Raiders 3.000 6.455 2.378 -0.992 12 Steelers 9.455 6.091 2.430 -2.209 13 Falcons 8.455 6.636 2.624 0.197 14 Redskins 12.364 14.546 3.215 -1.732 15 Colts 19.818 20.636 3.302 0.113 16 Bengals 23.546 19.909 3.453 -0.091 17 Chargers 19.909 16.818 3.497 -0.301 18 Packers 15.909 16.727 3.508 -0.534 19 Chiefs 4.818 7.636 3.667 0.112 20 Ravens 9.727 13.000 3.700 0.460 21 Giants 10.364 16.273 3.901 -0.916 22 Panthers 25.364 20.818 4.067 -1.852 23 Bills 17.727 12.818 4.114 -1.947 24 Buccaneers 12.000 18.455 4.502 2.454 25 Texans 20.364 24.182 4.575 -2.502 26 Dolphins 14.182 22.455 4.694 0.425 27 Vikings 18.091 12.909 4.727 0.639 28 Saints 21.818 16.727 5.224 0.908 29 Eagles 22.364 15.455 5.640 1.637 30 Lions 7.364 15.273 5.652 -0.724 31 Titans 19.909 18.546 5.672 -0.484 32 Cardinals 20.182 15.636 5.969 -0.589

Observations:

Not much new to add here other than to point out that even with only 1.4 spots separating the Titans' objective and subjective rankings, they're still the second-least consistently-ranked team.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value 1 Dolphins 14.182 22.455 8.273 4.932 2 Lions 7.364 15.273 7.909 0.303 3 Buccaneers 12.000 18.455 6.455 5.735 4 Giants 10.364 16.273 5.909 -1.190 5 Texans 20.364 24.182 3.818 -4.265 6 Raiders 3.000 6.455 3.455 -1.045 7 Ravens 9.727 13.000 3.273 -0.159 8 Chiefs 4.818 7.636 2.818 -0.765 9 Redskins 12.364 14.546 2.182 -2.583 10 Cowboys 1.000 2.455 1.455 -0.545 11 Packers 15.909 16.727 0.818 1.000 12 Colts 19.818 20.636 0.818 1.348 13 Jets 28.909 29.364 0.455 0.894 14 Rams 27.364 27.818 0.455 -0.045 15 Browns 31.818 32.000 0.182 0.371 16 49ers 30.818 30.727 -0.091 0.189 17 Broncos 6.909 6.455 -0.455 -0.925 18 Seahawks 4.364 3.818 -0.545 -1.431 19 Bears 27.909 27.273 -0.636 -0.007 20 Patriots 2.273 1.636 -0.636 0.016 21 Titans 19.909 18.546 -1.364 -3.766 22 Jaguars 29.909 28.455 -1.455 -0.894 23 Falcons 8.455 6.636 -1.818 -2.568 24 Chargers 19.909 16.818 -3.091 -0.121 25 Steelers 9.455 6.091 -3.364 2.151 26 Bengals 23.546 19.909 -3.636 -0.090 27 Cardinals 20.182 15.636 -4.545 0.713 28 Panthers 25.364 20.818 -4.545 3.251 29 Bills 17.727 12.818 -4.909 4.583 30 Saints 21.818 16.727 -5.091 -1.803 31 Vikings 18.091 12.909 -5.182 -0.629 32 Eagles 22.364 15.455 -6.909 -2.651

Observations:

I'm trying to remember a time when I remember seeing the Dolphins not only overrated, but overrated by this much. Sure, they're exceeding expectations, but let's not get carried away, people.

I will admit that the Lions, Buccaneers, and Giants have been playing well lately. But again, has it been that dominant?

Texans are slowly coming back down to Earth (they're really not good).

Raiders appear to be over-ranked by almost 3.5 spots. Are they for real and the models have yet to catch up? Or are they not quite that good? (I know we're talking about the difference between 6th and 3rd, still).

good? (I know we're talking about the difference between 6th and 3rd, still). If there's any consolation for Chargers fans, they may not be as bad as you may think.

Sure, the Eagles lose 6 of their last 8 games and now they're a bottom-third team? Does it make a difference that they've had the toughest schedule of any team in that span?

Sources