There were times this winter when it felt like the offseason would never end. But end it has, and on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to future public ridicule and predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Last year, we had the American League playoff picture pretty well pegged, with the exception of the A’s. Washington’s collapse? Not so much. The Rookies of the Year? Got ’em. Either league’s Cy Young winner? Nope! That’s ok, though. Baseball is best when it is energetic, even a touch frenzied.

Folks from FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, and The Hardball Times weighed in; here are the results.

The National League

The National League gets to have all the fun. Of course, some things are as you’d expect. The Dodgers are still anticipated to be a powerhouse. Only two of the 32 ballots cast exclude them from a postseason berth entirely, and they actually received one more vote to take their division than Cleveland did, despite their division opponents being projected for an average of 77.25 wins vs. Cleveland’s 72.5.

The Marlins look quite hopeless. The Giants don’t look a ton better. The Padres have not yet arrived.

But there are a lot of compelling races to be had. The Central and East each have four teams receiving at least one vote to win their division. Only four ballots mirror our current projected division winners precisely (the Dodgers, Cubs, and Nationals). Despite having a worse projected win total than either the Cubs (87) or Cardinals (85), our staff thinks the Brewers will repeat as Central champs, though our predictions suggest that we’re in for a tight race again, with the top spot separated by just two votes. And the Phillies, who last year received just eight total votes, none of which were for the division win, check in with 24 this year, the second-most in the NL. I guess a Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto will do that for you.

One team the staff is not impressed with, despite their offseason additions? The Mets, who at 39.5%, have the sixth highest playoff odds in the NL, but who received just four playoff votes, two of which are for the second Wild Card. And the poor Diamondbacks, who received 19 votes last year, got none this year. That’s particularly rough considering only four teams (Arizona, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Miami) were shut out of postseason voting entirely.

Staff Predictions: NL West Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Los Angeles 26 3 1 30 Colorado 5 0 1 6 San Diego 1 0 0 1 Arizona 0 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: NL Central Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Milwaukee 13 5 3 21 St. Louis 11 5 5 21 Chicago 7 1 5 13 Cincinnati 1 0 1 2 Pittsburgh 0 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: NL East Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Washington 14 7 9 30 Philadelphia 14 8 2 24 Atlanta 2 3 3 8 New York 2 0 2 4 Miami 0 0 0 0

The American League

Where the National League lends itself to compelling drama, the American League, much as it was last year, is a wasteland of the assumed outcome. Only one brave soul picked against Houston at the top of the AL West, and even that brave soul still had them making the playoffs through the second Wild Card. 19 of the 32 ballots cast have the Astros, Indians, and Yankees as their division winners. Five more keep Houston and Cleveland, only to swap in Boston.

Cleveland and New York each enjoy a touch less consensus than Houston does in their respective division races, though for different reasons. Where the Yankees’ are acknowledged to be a very good team (projected to be the best in baseball with 97 wins) that happens to play in a very tough division, Cleveland is a pretty good team that refused to expend the resources to become a great one. Their division is weak, but likely won’t be historically so again, and with injuries already cropping up, the seven games separating the Indians from the Twins don’t feel like they come with as much daylight as they once did.

If there is intrigue to be had, it will be found in the East, where the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are all seen as playoff teams, making the AL East the only division in baseball to boast three teams that we think will play in October. A Red Sox vs. Rays Wild Card game could be fun, a contest between one team with no bullpen to speak of, and another who has built their entire plane out of relievers.

Staff Predictions: AL West Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Houston 31 0 1 32 Oakland 1 0 4 5 Los Angeles 0 1 4 5 Texas 0 0 0 0 Seattle 0 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: AL Central Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Cleveland 25 0 1 26 Minnesota 7 0 2 9 Chicago 0 0 0 0 Detroit 0 0 0 0 Kansas City 0 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: AL East Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs New York 26 6 0 32 Boston 6 19 5 30 Tampa Bay 0 6 15 21 Baltimore 0 0 0 0 Toronto 0 0 0 0

Individual Awards

We couldn’t quite make up our minds on NL MVP. I picked Anthony Rendon personally, because when is that guy going to finally get his due, but the field is a mix of established stars, young luminaries, and a couple of veterans returning from injury, not to mention the reigning NL MVP.

Staff Predictions: NL MVP Player Votes Nolan Arenado 6 Paul Goldschmidt 6 Anthony Rendon 4 Bryce Harper 3 Ronald Acuna Jr. 2 Kris Bryant 2 Manny Machado 2 Juan Soto 2 Justin Turner 1 Trea Turner 1 Josh Donaldson 1 Corey Seager 1 Christian Yelich 1

Cy Young feels more certain, with 2018 first place finisher Jacob deGrom one of two Mets, third place finisher Aaron Nola making a showing, and second place finisher Max Scherzer leading the way. It is also a tally marked by an absence. This is the first year I could find since 2012 (the internet fails me after that) in which Clayton Kershaw did not receive a Cy Young vote from our staff.

Staff Predictions: NL Cy Young Player Votes Max Scherzer 16 Noah Syndergaard 5 Jacob deGrom 4 Aaron Nola 4 Jameson Taillon 2 Jack Flaherty 1

Victor Robles was Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel’s fifth overall prospect on this year’s Top 100, but he is first in voters’ hearts here.

The size and composition of the voting body isn’t exactly the same, but after Mookie Betts won the award last year, and Alex Bregman put up what would have been an MVP season in many other years, Mike Trout has still somehow increased his share of the vote from last year to this year (59.3% vs. 55%). And why not? Barring injury or a sudden desire to become a cobbler, he’s a hard guy to pick against.

Sale led last year’s voting, and the year before that’s voting. He might well lead next year’s voting, too. At some point, he will stop leading our staff voting, but with the second-best starting pitcher projection (5.8 WAR) and the best among AL starters (deGrom edges him slightly at 5.9 WAR), I can’t fault our staff for their selection, nor for the names that follow him.

Vlad Jr.’s recovery from an oblique strain is reportedly proceeding apace, but it does feel rather rude of baseball to hurry itself along to the point of it finally being Opening Day, only to deny us the top prospect in the game, who Eric and Kiley described by saying, “He is the cornerstone of the Blue Jays franchise, and perhaps a cornerstone of our sport.” Then again, based on the fact that he was ticketed for Buffalo to work out defensive woes that were set to resolve in about 15 days, I suppose we were due to wait regardless.

That’s the whole shebang. As we always do, we’ll check in on how close to right we were when the season wraps up. We look forward to writing about all of the ways in which we end up being surprised in the meantime. We hope you’ll tag along. Happy Opening Day, everyone.

2019 Staff Predictions: National League Author Name West Central East WC1 WC2 MVP Cy Young RoY Mike Werner LAD STL PHI ATL WSN Acuna Jr. Scherzer Robles Nick Dika LAD CHC PHI WSN COL Acuna Jr. Syndergaard Robles Ariel Cohen COL STL WSN LAD CIN Arenado deGrom Alonso Justin Mason COL MIL PHI LAD WSN Arenado Scherzer Robles David Laurila COL CIN ATL LAD CHC Arenado Nola Robles Sung Min Kim LAD MIL WSN PHI STL Arenado Scherzer Robles Rachael McDaniel LAD STL PHI WSN CHC Arenado deGrom Paddack Alex Chamberlain LAD MIL PHI WSN CHC Arenado Syndergaard Paddack Ryan Pollack LAD MIL WSN PHI STL Bryant Scherzer Robles Brice Russ LAD CHC WSN PHI ATL Bryant Scherzer Tatis, Jr. Dustin Nosler LAD MIL WSN ATL PHI Donaldson Scherzer Tatis, Jr. Rian Watt LAD MIL PHI CHC WSN Goldschmidt Scherzer Robles Ben Clemens LAD STL WSN MIL NYM Goldschmidt Scherzer Alonso Brad Johnson LAD STL PHI MIL WSN Goldschmidt Nola Robles Audrey Stark COL STL PHI MIL WSN Goldschmidt Scherzer Robles Al Melchior LAD MIL WSN PHI STL Goldschmidt Scherzer Hampson Nick Pollack LAD MIL PHI STL CHC Goldschmidt Taillon Tatis, Jr. Jeff Zimmerman LAD MIL WSN PHI CHC Harper Scherzer Senzel Devan Fink LAD CHC PHI WSN STL Harper Scherzer Alonso Jay Jaffe LAD CHC PHI WSN MIL Harper deGrom Robles Eli Ben-Porat LAD STL ATL PHI WSN Machado Scherzer Paddack Dan Szymborski LAD CHC WSN STL MIL Machado Scherzer Paddack Craig Edwards LAD CHC WSN PHI STL Rendon Scherzer Senzel Paul Sporer LAD MIL NYM STL WSN Rendon Syndergaard Hampson Meg Rowley LAD MIL PHI STL WSN Rendon Syndergaard Paddack Eric Longenhagen LAD STL PHI WSN MIL Rendon Taillon Tatis, Jr. Ben Kaspick LAD CHC WSN PHI NYM Seager Nola Paddack Shane Tourtellotte LAD STL WSN MIL ATL Soto Scherzer Robles Sheryl Ring LAD MIL WSN STL PHI Soto Syndergaard Robles Birchwood Bros. SDP MIL WSN ATL LAD Turner Flaherty Robles Greg Simons COL STL NYM MIL WSN Turner Nola Robles Kiley McDaniel LAD STL PHI WSN ATL Yelich deGrom Robles