Since November 8, 2016 India has seen a sudden spurt in the number of emotional economists. These economists either support or oppose demonetisation based on emotions rather than facts. So you have long posts on Facebooks and multiple tweets but the real impact of demonetisation or the lack of it is just lost in this noise.No doubt demonetisation—like everything else announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi-- has ended up polarising people.Either demonetisation is the second best thing to have taken place in India since 1991 liberalisation or it’s akin to the rule of Louis XVI of France— whose political mismanagement led to the French revolution.Taking Modi’s assertion on its face value that demonetisation was aimed at reducing black money, one wonders whether it has been a success or a failure.But before we get to that, we have to set the parameters for measuring success or failure. A perfect outcome would mean eradicating black money from India altogether. Also people not being able to generate future black money may be an added advantage. Similarly, a failure would mean zero impact on black money or perhaps increase in black money in the Indian economy in the coming years.It is no secret that after the government banned old currency notes, many people rushed to buy gold. The trick was simple; buy gold to use up your stash of demonetised Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes.Taking advantage of the situation many jewellers sold gold to black money hoarders at double the price. So when gold was pegged at Rs 30,000 the asking rate was anywhere between Rs 58,000 to Rs 63,000 per 10 grams. This may just be considered a success for the government in some way. Not so much because gold was purchased but mainly because wealth created by black money was destroyed. Many would want to argue whether the wealth destruction could have implications, but that’s a separate debate.Yet, the fact is, half the black money is destroyed due to overpriced gold purchase. While the other half is back has been routed back into the economy using ingenious evasive means. As it’s safe to assume that the jewellers, who sold gold to black money hoarders, will not be holding on to old currency notes. They would have brought the money back into circulation.The other way, a much talked about one, is the cash deposits with the RBI. Going by that standard, from whatever information is in public domain about the amount of currency notes deposited with RBI, demonetisation may have been a failure.As far as future generation of black money is concerned that in some way is taken care of by something unrelated: Goods and Services Tax (GST). Most of the black money is generated by smaller Indian traders and businessmen. Even the bribes paid to politicians and government officials could be sourced back to the businessmen. GST, if implemented in its current form, would leave little scope for tax evasion by Indian businesses. This should reduce if not curb generation of black money.It’s quite clear that one action—demonetisation in this case-- will not lead to completely stop the black economy.To put it clearly then: Has demonetisation reduced black money? The answer is yes, even if it is marginally.Will demonetisation stop future generation of black money? No. GST would.So is demonetisation a success or a failure? The honest answer to that is: nobody really knows till now. Not even Mr Modi as of now.(Sachin Dave is Assistant Editor with The Economic Times and writes on corporate finance and taxation. Views expressed are personal.)