Will There Be Lasting Effects?

Some pro-democracy activists hope that the election, and expected pro-European landslide, will hasten the reform process in Ukraine. Many others are much less sanguine, and believe that the same corrupt political class will ultimately dominate the next parliament, stymieing real reform.

“‘All the people who were on Maidan know that we went to Maidan with certain goals, and everyone sees that that goal is not achieved yet,’ said Zhukovska. The country is heading in the wrong direction, especially with the conflict in the east. Even the parliamentary elections this week do not bring Zhukovska much hope about the future. ‘They will re-elect the parliament, but I don’t see anything good happening,’ she stated.”

Other observers point out that the elections might alienate constituencies in southeastern Ukraine. With the collapse of the Communist Party and Party of Regions following Maidan, the two political forces that once represented broad swaths of the region will almost be entirely absent from Kyiv.

“A more productive move would have been a serious commitment to decentralization throughout Ukraine, demonstrating that Kiev is in charge of the state design. This process would also help regenerate Ukraine’s party-political landscape. While the October 26 parliamentary election is necessary to rebuild democratic legitimacy from within, the vote’s immediate effect will be the opposite: to deepen existing divisions and anchor them in Ukraine’s political system. Kiev’s hesitation on the issue of decentralization has made matters worse.”

Recent polls show that voters in largely Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions are less likely to believe that the current Ukrainian government represents all of Ukraine. These perceptions may worsen following the expected pro-Western landslide.

39% of respondents in eastern regions (excluding Donetsk) and 45% of respondents in southern regions do not think that the governments represents all the regions of Ukraine. (IFES 2014 Ukraine survey)

P.S. This piece would not be possible without help of terrific election wonks from The International Foundation for Electoral Systems. Check their website:

http://www.ifes.org/