J.D. Martinez trade deadline dilemma puts Detroit Tigers in a pickle As long as Martinez is hitting and the Tigers are competing, it stands to reason Avila could keep him. But therein lies the risk.

Anthony Fenech | Detroit Free Press

Show Caption Hide Caption Detroit Tigers most likely to be traded As the 2017 trade deadline approaches, here's our list of Detroit Tigers most likely to be sent packing. Kirkland Crawford, Detroit Free Press

The Detroit Tigers have a bobble-head giveaway scheduled for July 28 against the Houston Astros.

The promotion is too late in the season for comfort, only three days before Major League Baseball’s nonwaiver trade deadline. It comes at a time when rightfielder J.D. Martinez figures to be among the most talked about players in baseball.

But the conundrum with Martinez goes beyond the possibility of fans receiving his Game of Thrones-themed bobblehead at a time when he could be playing for another team. Of all the Tigers who could be traded by the July 31 deadline, one has been labeled “a situation.”

And as general manager Al Avila said June 2, “I think the J.D. Martinez situation, it will play out on its own. That’s the way I look at it.”

It will play out with Tigers wins and losses and other teams’ injuries. It will play out with his right foot injury in the past, his play in the present and his looming free agency in the future. It will be complicated by MLB’s current collective bargaining agreement, and it likely will be Avila’s toughest decision in two seasons as GM.

“Obviously, we want him to play great,” Avila said. “We want him to hit, and hopefully he does, and if that happens and we’re winning, then great. If there’s another move to make, then we’ll look at it at that point.”

Such is crux of the Martinez situation. He is hitting, and the Tigers, though not consistently winning, are within contention in the American League Central. Since returning from the disabled list May 12, Martinez is batting .310 with 10 home runs. He has an on-base plus slugging percentage of 1.151, reaffirming belief that he is one of baseball’s best power hitters.

So, if the facts remain true for the next seven weeks — Martinez hitting and the Tigers competing — it stands to reason Avila could keep Martinez, who transforms the middle of the Tigers’ batting order into one of the most powerful in the majors.

But there’s risk in doing that. By keeping Martinez, the Tigers will forgo their opportunity to sell him for an influx of young talent before he hits free agency.

Several rival scouts and executives told the Free Press this week that the return for Martinez would be much greater now than the compensatory pick the team would receive if Martinez rejects a qualifying offer in the off-season.

According to the collective bargaining agreement, any team exceeding the competitive balance tax of $195 million — which the Tigers are expected to do — would receive only a fourth-round pick if a player rejects a qualifying offer. Martinez says he wants to stay in Detroit, though it seems unlikely he would pass on his first free-agent payday by accepting the qualifying offer, worth $17.2 million last off-season.

He won’t be cheap.

What's J.D. worth?

The Tigers would avoid the risk of adding much more money to their payroll, which is in the beginning stages of getting pared down, by not offering Martinez a qualifying offer. But in doing so, the Tigers would get nothing in return for his services — unless they trade him before 4 p.m. deadline July 31.

This far from the deadline, what could the Tigers get for Martinez? The consensus among six scouts and executives polled is the Tigers could get multiple prospects — one among an organization’s higher-tier players, plus another in the next tier — and perhaps a major leaguer.

More: Tigers are approaching sell mode, but will GM Al Avila pull trigger?

“Maybe the ‘1A’ prospect,” one National League scout who covers the team said. “Not the tip-top, but among the better group.”

An NL executive speculated the team would seek a near-ready starting pitcher, in addition to a higher-level prospect and lower-impact secondary player.

One AL scout said: “I’d happily give away our No. 2 and No. 4 prospect.”

Tigers GM Al Avila gives state-of-team address Detroit Tigers general manager Al Avila fields questions as the team opens a critical month with a home stand against the White Sox on June 2, 2017. Video by Carlos Monarrez/DFP

Another was skeptical the Tigers could get a major league player in return because teams considering Martinez are looking to add at the deadline, not subtract. Perhaps, a perfect scenario is to find a team with a surplus of bullpen arms willing to part with one. The move could boost the Tigers in the interim — assuming they are in contention — and still add prospects for the future.

Martinez’s value will be impacted most by his impending free agency. Teams would be trading for a two-month rental, looking at Martinez as the piece who could get them over the hump in reaching the postseason or boost their World Series chances.

His value will be impacted by his defense in rightfield, which wasn’t great last season and hasn’t improved much better this season while dealing with lingering soreness from the Lisfranc sprain he suffered in his right foot in spring training.

One NL scout said: “He may be one of the better deals in that you won’t overpay to get him.”

Of the contenders in both leagues, only a couple of teams have openings in rightfield. One team is the Indians, who are unlikely to benefit from their chief rival. Martinez also could play leftfield, manager Brad Ausmus said last week, and could serve as a designated hitter for an AL team.

Talkin Tigers: What selling at trade deadline would mean Free Press sports writers George Sipple and Shawn Windsor discuss the Angels series and what the ramifications of selling at the trade deadline are for the Tigers.

It’s also possible a midmarket team enjoying more success than expected — say, the Diamondbacks, who lately have become spenders — could try to catch lightning in a bottle for the stretch run.

Martinez’s $11.75-million salary would be prorated, costing a team about $4 million in a deadline trade.

“We’ll just have to play it out and see how it goes,” Avila said. “I can’t tell you how we’re going to do it. ... It will dictate itself.”

Contact Anthony Fenech: afenech@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @anthonyfenech.