Will Secaucus Junction station turn into a mausoleum in the Meadowlands if a loop is built to give commuters on four NJ Transit rail lines a one-seat ride to New York, or will new development bring it more passengers?

Experts said that a proposed loop track, which would connect the Bergen, Main, Pascack Valley and Port Jervis lines to the Northeast Corridor, will be a game changer for Secaucus Junction and Hoboken Terminal, where those rail lines end.

"New York customers will stay on the train and that is 80 to 90 percent of the business at Secaucus," said Joseph Clift, a former Long Island Rail Road planning director and transit advocate. "What's left are intra-New Jersey riders. Secaucus will be a ghost town," he said.

The Secaucus Loop, also known as the Bergen Loop, would be built as part of the larger Gateway Project. That Amtrak project would build new Hudson River rail tunnels, an annex to Penn Station New York, additional track in New Jersey and other infrastructure. The loop track could be in service by 2030 under conceptual plans.

"After 2030, (the loop) will diminish it. But, in 13 years, there could be a lot of development. There is much more (development) possible around there," said Martin Robins, director emeritus of the Voorhees Transportation Institute at Rutgers and a former NJ Transit official.

When will North Jersey get direct NY trains?

Original plans called for construction of office buildings over Secaucus Junction, Robins said. Those office plans could be changed to apartment buildings instead, he said.

"All of that can come to pass, but it may take time and requires an entrepreneur who wants to take the risk, and the right market conditions," he said.

Hoboken Terminal also would likely see ridership drop, but that could be offset by companies relocating into new office buildings constructed along the Hoboken and Jersey City waterfront, Robins said.

"There are two markets, Midtown and Lower Manhattan, Hoboken serves with PATH connections," Robins said. "Hoboken won't dry up and die. In the future, train (traffic) will be split between those going to the loop and those continuing to Hoboken."

Secaucus Junction is NJ Transit's fourth-busiest station, according to the agency. Ridership there has steadily increased from 20,649 trips in fiscal year 2012 to 27,568 trips in fiscal year 2016, said Nancy Snyder, an NJ Transit spokeswoman. Hoboken is the fifth busiest, with 15,101 trips in fiscal year 2015. A fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30.

Secaucus Junction's original function as a rail-only transfer point has changed since the $450 million, federally funded structure opened in late 2003.

The station was built to shave 10-15 minutes off the travel time for passengers who would have normally accessed the city through Hoboken Terminal and allowed passengers to transfer between 10 of 11 rail lines for the first time.



That function changed with the 2005 opening of Exit 15X from the New Jersey Turnpike and the addition of a park and ride lot in 2009, which opened the station up to vehicular traffic. Residential housing totaling 430 units and 30,000 square feet of shops opened between 2008 and 2012.

In March, NJ Transit opened up an expanded bus plaza at Secaucus Junction, used by people who arrive by train and travel to nearby industries and distribution centers.

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Clift said its function, as a transfer point between train lines, could have been accomplished with a smaller, simpler structure that wouldn't be a drain on NJ Transit resources.

"NJ Transit would be left with an expensive white elephant that ill-serves the remaining intra-Jersey riders," he said. "It's already huge for the service it does provide."



Expenses, such as constant repair and maintenance of the numerous escalator banks in the station, would continue to be an expense for NJ Transit, he said.

Robins, however, said that by the time the Secaucus Loop enters service in 2030, the station will have been in use for 27 years.

"Secaucus Junction has paid off dividends that are incalculable," he said. "During the time the region was recovering from 9/11, it was critical to get people from the Bergen (rail) lines to New York by enabling them to transfer."



Despite the problems that football fans experienced traveling to and from Super Bowl XLVIII in Feb. 2014, the region would have never been considered to host the game without Secaucus Junction, Robins said.

It also serves as a "safety valve" to move passengers between trains and buses when there is an incident, from a bus delay to a train crash, Robins said.

Larry Higgs may be reached at lhiggs@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @commutinglarry. Find NJ.com on Facebook.