I am not defecting to Ukip, because I want an EU referendum – but Nigel Farage has filled the vacuum left by my own party

The bookies list David Cameron at 500-1 as the next Conservative MP to defect to Ukip. If I was a betting man, I would suggest that is a better bet than anyone placing money on me going to Ukip, as has been heavily speculated. I have been a Conservative since the age of 15 and plan to stay a Conservative. Let me explain why.

Do I think Ukip has been a good thing for British politics? Yes, definitely yes. It has filled a vacuum on the right of British politics because the Conservatives have spent too much time worrying about the centre ground, not the common ground. The party has been chasing centre-left voters under the mistaken apprehension that people on the right would have no other party to vote for apart from the Conservatives.

This is a complete misunderstanding of British politics – most voters in the UK tend to be centre-right or non-voters. What Margaret Thatcher did with her strong rightwing message was to galvanise those voters who believe in traditional values so she was able to unify Conservative voters – those who did not normally vote – and Labour voters who liked her message. Unfortunately, the modern Conservative party has spent a lot of its time ignoring these voters, and on occasion deliberately antagonising them.

The vacuum left by the Conservative party ignoring much of its traditional base was filled by Ukip. It has a number of very simple messages, such as control of immigration, leaving the EU, and ending the windfarm folly. All these policies resonate with traditional Tory voters, many non-voters, and increasingly Labour voters.

I spend a lot of my time helping the excellent Eurosceptic Conservative candidate in Corby and East Northants, Tom Pursglove. He and his team have canvassed most of the town of Corby. About one in three Labour voters are deserting the party and moving to Ukip because Ed Miliband is just not listening to their concerns: the number one issue by a country mile in the constituency is immigration. Voters are up in arms at the huge numbers of people coming into this country from the EU. They worry about the effect on public services – whether it’s being able to see a GP, the impact on hospital waiting times and school admissions, or housing opportunities.

In contrast, Cameron is listening and taking action. Who would have thought the prime minister would be guaranteeing an in-out referendum, controlling migration from the EU, and ending windfarm subsidies? He has done this because of pressure from within the party, but also because of the rise of Ukip. As I argued to the Cambridge Union, Ukip has changed the shape of British politics and made the established parties take more notice of the electorate.

So why don’t I go to Ukip? In part, because I have always believed in what the Conservative party stands for. But more practically, it’s because only Cameron can deliver an in-out referendum on the EU. Yes, he will have a renegotiation to see if we can get back to something like a common market, but he will then put it to the British people.

My personal belief is that he will not succeed in his renegotiation, and will lead the “out” campaign. But whatever happens, by the end of 2017 I will have a vote on whether I want to be in or out of the EU. This will allow me to campaign within the Conservative party for an exit from this appalling European super state.

So what is the downside to Ukip? Well, it is competing for the same centre-right votes as the Conservative party. At the next general election we might have something similar to the Labour-SDP split which resulted in the Conservative party getting into power for a long period, but this time in reverse.

In Corby, for example, the current prediction for the general election result is Labour 37%, Conservative 33% and Ukip 17%. The vote for Tom Pursglove and the Ukip candidate comes to 50%, so half the voters in this marginal seat want a centre-right MP. Yet at the moment, the intervention of Ukip splits the vote, and Labour gets in with a vote share of only 37%. So here we have Tom Pursglove, who wants to come out of the EU super state, wants to end the free movement of people from the EU, and is director of Together Against Wind (the National Anti-Wind Farm Campaign) being stopped from being elected by Ukip voters who want exactly the same thing. How can that make any sense at all?

If that is repeated across the country, Labour will have a majority in parliament on a paltry vote share. My solution: lock David Cameron and Nigel Farage in a room. Don’t let them out until they work out their differences.