For the first time since the general election kicked off, a majority of swing-state GOP insiders say Donald Trump would win their state if the election were held today.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 key battleground states. POLITICO began asking this benchmark question in June, after Trump and Hillary Clinton both clinched their parties’ respective presidential nominations.


Republican enthusiasm for Trump has been limited throughout the campaign — and his prospects, in the eyes of GOP insiders, have been even dimmer. For most of August, only roughly one-in-five Republicans thought Trump would win.

That number jumped to about a third of Republicans leading up to Labor Day weekend, and to 39 percent last week.

Now? Coming off a week that included Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” remark and her health scare in New York on Sunday, 53 percent of GOP insiders say Trump would win their state, compared to 47 percent who said Clinton would win.

“Like the Old Man of the Mountain, Clinton's support is slowly eroding,” said a New Hampshire Republican — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “The health fiasco and ‘deplorables’ nightmare had an impact here to motivate independents I talk to.”

Added an Iowa Republican: “She had the worst week of any presidential candidate in my adult lifetime. Her health and the ‘deplorables’ comment doomed her in this state.”

“I am, for the first time, waffling on this one,” added a Michigan Republican. “More and more of the chattering class here is thinking that Hillary's health situation is opening up the possibility that Trump could actually pull this off.”

A number of Republicans, however, cast doubt on Trump’s odds, despite polls showing Trump leading in a number of states. Most of them chalked it up to an organizational disadvantage.

“Polls are tightening certainly, but the Clinton ground game would carry the day,” said an Ohio Republican.

Another Ohio Republican who chose Trump said it was “the first time I’ve answered the [benchmark] question this way, but today he would win.” Yet the Republican said he was “still skeptical” Trump would carry Ohio in November.

“In a tight race, ground organization matters,” added a New Hampshire Republican, “and Trump's doesn't exist.”

Among Democrats, the vast majority, 90 percent, said they thought Clinton would win their state if the election were held today. But that’s a low-water mark for Clinton on the question: Last week, 94 percent of Democratic insiders picked Clinton, and that percentage peaked at 100 percent last month.

“It's slipped away,” said a Florida Democrat who said Trump would win the state’s 29 electoral votes if the election were held today. “But I do think she can get it back.”

But most Democrats still believed Clinton would win — even if it was just wishful thinking.

“God, I hope so. Who knows at this point?” said an Ohio Democrat who picked Clinton. “I usually don't take stock in polls, but considering everything that Trump has said and done, Clinton should be up by double digits. This is just unreal.”

Here are two other takeaways from this week’s survey:

Clinton’s pneumonia episode took a toll, but Democrats think she’ll rebound.

Clinton’s pneumonia diagnosis, which the campaign only disclosed after the former secretary of state was overtaken by the heat on Sunday morning in New York, will hurt her campaign, according to most insiders.

A narrow majority of Democrats, 52 percent, say it will be at least a slight negative for her campaign. Nearly all Republicans, a combined 94 percent, said it would hurt her, including 44 percent who said it would hurt her “significantly.”

And asked if it was a “mistake” to withhold the initial diagnosis until late Sunday, 55 percent of Democrats and 95 percent of Republicans said it was.

Many Democrats said it was a no-win situation for Clinton — who would have fed into the chatter about her alleged health problems by disclosing the diagnosis, but instead ended up feeding the storyline that she’s hiding something.

“She was going to be criticized either way,” an Iowa Democrat said. “If she released the diagnosis before she had to leave the 9/11 ceremony, it would have invited the same round of attack from Trump and his surrogates and the questions from the media. However, if she had released it earlier, it would have helped the campaign's narrative about how hard she works throughout illness.”

And some Democrats blamed the media for making too much of the episode.

“In hindsight it was a mistake, but only because the media gives her a double standard,” said a Wisconsin Democrat. “If she were any other candidate, it would not matter.”

But even though a majority of Democrats thought the issue could dog her campaign, most expect it to fade quickly.

“Short-term, expect a little dip in polls. Long-term, no impact,” said a Nevada Democrat. “Too much news (debates, etc.) left to happen between now and Election Day.”

Meanwhile, insiders split when asked which will damage Clinton more: the health saga, or Clinton’s characterization of some of Trump’s supporters as “deplorables.”

The majority of Democratic insiders, 52 percent, said neither would hurt that much. But more said the “basket of deplorables” comment would stick more (29 percent) than the health scare (19 percent).

For Republicans, it was flipped: 57 percent said the health scare would hurt her more, while 36 percent said the “basket of deplorables” comment would hurt more.

“The ‘deplorables’ comment has been used more successfully by the Trump campaign,” a Nevada Democrat said.

Other Democrats praised Clinton for reiterating the at-times unsavory views of some of Trump’s most-ardent supporters.

“The ‘deplorables’ comment actually helps,” said a North Carolina Democrat. “People need to remember who is in Trump's base. It is not pretty. The only thing she got wrong was the percentage. It is not half, but it is easily a quarter of his support.”

For Republicans, the health scare and pneumonia diagnosis was viewed as the most damaging for Clinton.

“[I]t was totally, completely preventable, and it plays into so many negative narratives about the candidate and her operation,” a Virginia Republican said.

“The withholding of the diagnosis is more damaging because it reinforces an existing narrative,” an Iowa Republican added. “‘Basket of deplorables’ is a stupid gaffe, but the Trump campaign's faux outrage is pretty rich, given the litany of insults that regularly flow from the Orange One. Her voters simply won't care.”

Trump’s taxes are his biggest liability, but Republicans doubt voters will care much.

Trump may have disclosed some results from recent medical examinations this week, but insiders say his still-undisclosed tax returns are more likely to hurt him than any concerns about the 70-year-old’s health.

More than three-in-four Democrats, 76 percent, said Trump’s hidden tax returns are more likely to hurt him than his health records.

“The press seems to be more determined to unearth information about how much he has actually given to charity and what that donation from his foundation to the Florida [attorney general] really signifies,” said a Wisconsin Democrat. “If he clings to his feeble audit claim and more information comes out about his ties to Russia, the refusal to release the tax information will loom ever larger.”

But some Democrats said attacking Trump for not releasing his tax returns, as every other presidential nominee has done in the modern era, doesn’t really move the needle for voters. Seventeen percent of Democrats said neither would hurt Trump.

“Neither of those seem to rise to the top of the negatives that we can go after Trump on,” a Nevada Democrat said.

As for Republicans, far more said the undisclosed tax returns (43 percent) would dog Trump’s campaign than his questions about his health (3 percent).

“People want to know what Trump is actually worth and what he does with his money,” a Michigan Republican said. “The likely story is that he is not worth nearly as much as he pretends to be, and admitting that by releasing his tax returns would hurt his ego and diminish his reputation.”

“The tax returns are the biggest story out there, because they point to everything that's wrong with Donald Trump,” added an Iowa Republican. “It's a ticking time bomb that the media — and voters — should continue to press him for. No person should be elected without making this basic disclosure, particularly one with the complex business relationships Mr. Trump has developed.”

But a 54-percent majority of GOP insiders said neither the tax returns nor his medical records would have an impact.

“How many voters out there are saying, ‘I'd be with Trump if only he'd release his taxes and health records?” a New Hampshire Republican asked.

“No one cares,” an Iowa Republican added. “He doesn't play by anyone's rules but his own. And if he doesn't like them, he changes them. And no one cares.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this special survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Christopher Murray, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Michigan: Jill Alper, Saul Anuzis, Andrea Bitely, Lori Carpentier, Howard Edelson, Jordan Gehrke, Steve Hood, Darwin Jiles Jr., Joe Lehman, Dennis Lennox, Katie Packer, Ronna Romney McDaniel, John Truscott, Stephanie White, John Yob

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.