1) Vardy’s goal drought under scrutiny

Since he scored 14 goals in 12 league games between late September and 21 December, in which he failed to find the net in only two matches (one of them against Norwich), someone has turned off Jamie Vardy’s scoring tap. In that free-scoring period there seemed to be no stopping him: he may not have been on the scoresheet against the Canaries, for example, but he played excellently and threatened constantly, and it was his (off-target) header from James Maddison’s corner that Tim Krul flapped into his own net for the equaliser in a 1-1 draw. But since Christmas he has not scored at all, and in six league games this calendar year he has had only eight shots – 50% of them against Manchester City last weekend – and only four on target, the most recent against Chelsea on 1 February, 235 pitch minutes ago. Brendan Rodgers’ priority must be to turn that tap back on. SB

• Norwich v Leicester (Friday, 8pm, all times GMT)

Sign up to The Recap, our weekly email of editors’ picks.

2) Fernandinho would merit a fifth League Cup medal

When Manchester City were rocking on their heels in the Bernabéu, it was Fernandinho who cleared heads with two brilliant blocks of goalbound shots. Wednesday’s famous win was another reminder of just how integral the Brazilian has been to the club’s journey into the heart of the European elite. All four of Pep Guardiola’s starting defence – Benjamin Mendy, Kyle Walker, Nicolás Otamendi, and Aymeric Laporte had struggled – but the latter’s departure with the muscle injury that will preclude his involvement at Wembley brought the veteran Brazilian back into commission from the substitutes’ bench. He and Kevin De Bruyne subsequently inspired City to the club’s finest European night in half a century. On Sunday, Fernandinho, David Silva and Sergio Agüero, fellow survivors from the 2013-14 final victory over Sunderland that began City’s recent dominance of the competition, are in line to collect their fifth League Cup winners’ medals,matching Ian Rush’s record. Whatever lies in City’s clouded future, the question of who could replace a player so crucial in both defence and midfield does not present an easy answer. JB

• Aston Villa v Manchester City (Sunday, 4.30pm)

3) Villa should go for it with the pressure off

For all that many Premier League clubs prioritise the sizzling excitement of finishing 14th above the mundanity of winning actual trophies, there is no excuse for Aston Villa not to go for it against Manchester City in Sunday’s Carabao Cup final. For a start there’s Villa’s venerable League Cup tradition – its first winners, in 1961, and victors of memorable finals in 1977, 1994 and 1996 – and then there’s the fact that victory will make no difference to existing fixture burdens. And given poor recent league performances, a feisty showing at Wembley, with the Premier League pressure off, can serve as a morale booster. Of course, Villa’s injury depletions, leaky defence and City’s dizzying, rotating array of attacking talent could make for another horribly one-sided domestic cup final, but Dean Smith’s side tasted Wembley glory last year too and shouldn’t be overawed. TD

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Aston Villa’s last trip to Wembley, for last season’s Championship play-off final, turned out Ok for Dean Smith. Photograph: Tom Jenkins/The Guardian

4) Will Watford opt to hold returning players back?

With Manchester City not in league action this weekend this is an opportunity for Liverpool can open their lead at the top to a ludicrous 25 points – more than opponents Watford’s haul for the season so far. Nigel Pearson’s first game as Watford manager came at Anfield in December, an impressive performance that nevertheless ended in a 2-0 defeat and presaged their Yuletide mini-surge. “When they came here it was a tough game,” Trent Alexander-Arnold said this week. “With the new manager, it’s tough to break them down.” Well, not that tough – their past five opponents have managed it, and one of them was Tranmere. The Hornets have several players returning from injury, including Tom Cleverley and Ismaïla Sarr, who both came off the bench at Old Trafford last week, and the question is whether it is worth risking their recuperation in this game, which they are unlikely to win whoever they choose, or wiser to protect them for more important and winnable battles. SB

• Watford v Liverpool (Saturday, 5.30pm)

5) The sternest test of Moyes’s motivational skills

During their horror-run of fixtures, West Ham pretty much met expectations – losing each of the games everyone thought they would, and surrendering a two-goal lead to draw the one they might have won. David Moyes’ side are in dire need of a victory that will haul them out of the relegation zone. Their fine performance in defeat at Liverpool bodes well going into their game against Southampton, but few among West Ham’s fans will be confident of seeing a repeat of such industrious vim and vigour. Moyes has talked a good game during his side’s recent run of bad results and on Monday night his team played one. A manager who is surely in the last chance saloon as far as future Premier League appointments are concerned, Moyes will have few more sterner tests of his motivational skills than Saturday’s game in Stratford. BG

• West Ham v Southampton (Saturday, 3pm)

Moyes plays percentages game but West Ham need inspiration soon Read more

6) Potter may reshuffle again to test Palace

Graham Potter emerged from Bramall Lane last week with a 1-1 draw, reward for some productive tactical nurdling as Brighton started with three centre-backs and two strikers for the first time since the early weeks of the season. “I think I have had a decent coaching career so far and you don’t have that by doing the same thing all the time,” he said afterwards. So Crystal Palace should expect the unexpected on Saturday. Neal Maupay’s goal in Sheffield was his first since December, at Palace, and might be enough for him to keep his place after a couple of games on the bench. His partner in attack last week, Glenn Murray, has scored in his past three games against Palace but that wasn’t enough to get him on the pitch when they last met. Brighton’s last three league games, and five of their last seven, have ended in score draws. A first league win in 2020 would boost their fight against relegation before a testing run of fixtures. SB

• Brighton v Crystal Palace (Saturday, 12.30pm)

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Neal Maupay celebrates scoring at Palace for Brighton in December, but he has struggled since. Photograph: Matthew Childs/Action Images via Reuters

7) Being away from home may comfort Chelsea

There are only two Premier League teams who have won more points away from home than at their own stadium his season: Southampton and Chelsea. Defeat to Bayern Munich on Tuesday was Chelsea’s eighth home defeat of the season in all competitions, while Bournemouth won at Stamford Bridge in December. Chelsea’s ongoing run of five home games in six is not particularly helpful: they have lost two of the first three matches in that sequence already. Since winning at Chelsea, Bournemouth have won twice in 10 league matches, and should present the Blues with an opportunity to further damage their statistics on Saturday. SB

• Bournemouth v Chelsea (Saturday, 3pm)

8) A Gayle force approach from Steve Bruce?

Newcastle could do without having to entertain a Burnley side whose recent league run of four wins and a draw has put them within sight of European qualification. Seven points clear of the drop but with one win in nine league games, Newcastle are sinking fast. Steve Bruce faces more conundrums than a whole series of Countdown contestants, most puzzling among them how to get the best out of Joelinton. With only one league goal this season, the Brazilian is clearly unsuited to the role of lone frontman performed so well by Salomón Rondón last season. With Andy Carroll injured, either dropping him in favour of Dwight Gayle or pairing the duo together seems worth a punt. Gayle’s record of 21 Premier League goals in 109 appearances isn’t particularly impressive, but he is a snarling terrier with a proven top-flight record, which is more than can be said of his teammate. The pair spent only 89 minutes on the pitch together in the aforementioned run of games without mustering a goal between them, but with Joelinton looking consistently lost, it is difficult to imagine this is an offensive gamble that isn’t worth taking. BG

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Dwight Gayle goes close for Newcastle at Burnley in December. His bustling approach could be what Steve Bruce needs in the return fixture. Photograph: Philip Oldham/BPI/Shutterstock

• Newcastle v Burnley (Saturday, 3pm)

9) More Tottenham negativity against Wolves?

Having lost against Chelsea last weekend after adopting an astonishingly negative approach, it will be intriguing to see how Tottenham line up against Wolves, who are only a point behind them in the hunt for a Champions League place. Considering they were equally negative in defeat at the hands of RB Leipzig in the Champions League, the smart money would go on the heroically stubborn José Mourinho doing much the same. The absences of Harry Kane and Son Heung-min at least provide him with ready-made excuses in the event of defeat. There is no shame whatsoever in losing to an exciting Wolves team, but – with or without their key absentees – the sight of Spurs going down without a fight at home following last weekend’s abject performance is likely to prompt rumblings of discontent, something that has been largely absent around the well-appointed home stands. BG

• Tottenham v Wolves (Sunday, 2pm)

10) Improved Everton evoke bad memories for Solskjær

Even amid the plunging depths to which Manchester United have descended at times this season, Ole Gunnar Solskjær has repeatedly harked back to a specific low point in his time as manager. Goodison Park last April – a 4-0 defeat to an Everton team managed by Marco Silva that were hardly pulling up trees was a very public humiliation. Solskjær, previously a picture of positivity and bringer of 1999 Treble vibes, angrily promised a clear-out of a team of undeserving sloths. “I want my team to be the hardest-working team in the league, that is what we were under Sir Alex,” he said. Ten months on, only Chris Smalling, Ashley Young and Romelu Lukaku have actually fled the nest, with Paul Pogba on standby. The Norwegian’s team are configured rather differently than they were 10 months ago, and United can hardly play much worse than they did then. That said, they are also coming up against a far superior Everton team, who continue to improve under Carlo Ancelotti and were impressive even in defeat last week at Arsenal. JB

• Everton v Manchester United (Sunday, 2pm)