Chris Archer is a pitcher that is heavily relied upon. He’s taken as an ace in drafts and is the Rays number one starter. Keeping in mind that it is a small sample, after three lackluster starts to begin the season, people should be worried. He flashes plus pitches, with good strikeout numbers but has been missing the truly important part of an ace for some time. The results.

Chris Archer debuted in 2012 and has only outperformed his FIP twice, once in 2013 and once in 2014 (3.22 ERA to 4.07 FIP and 3.33 ERA to 3.39 FIP). He’s only outperformed his xFIP in those same two seasons (3.91 xFIP and 4.70 xFIP). It seems as though Archer is suffering from Michael Pineda syndrome.

Pineda is a sabermetric darling, posting peripheral statistics far better than his actual results in 2015 and 2016. His lack of success, despite good peripherals, may come down to something simple but hard to quantify.

Archer and Pineda both share a similar flaw: a propensity to give up the longball. The idea that home runs are bad is obvious and sabermetrics account for this. However, Archer and Pineda pitch in a way that deceives advanced statistics.

Both flash elite stuff with good strikeout numbers along with average to above average walk rates leading to good peripheral statistics. According to the algorithms behind these statistics, if you can strike batters out without walking many, you’re a good pitcher. This is a good rule of thumb, but it can’t account for some problems.

Archer and Pineda both tend to lose control for one second and hang pitches or launch a meatball to the batter. Both to the observer and the advanced statistics, it’s a simple mistake. With a little practice, it can easily be fixed. But both pitchers are proving it’s not that simple.

Prince Fielder tees off on a pitch Pineda leaves up in the zone

Daniel Nava crushes a slider that Archer leaves over the plate

To keep your control for an entire baseball game is difficult, and some pitchers struggle with it more than others. Pitchers who tend more to the latter are the ones who seemingly implode out of nowhere. We as viewers often attribute it to bad luck, saying that one or two things didn’t go his way. But how often can that truly be said? When it becomes a pattern, something must change.

That isn’t to say Chris Archer is a bad pitcher. He he has good stuff and is beneficial to the Rays in real life, just as he can be to fantasy baseball players. However, both in real life and the fantasy realm, there is too much optimism that Archer can revert back to his 2013/14 form.

The new Archer, that has a propensity to give up home runs and is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, will struggle in the juiced ball and sabermetric era. Hitters will tee-off on his bad pitches and figure him out the third time around.

Archer could return to form by finding a way to repress home runs: either by developing another pitch, changing pitching strategies or even just working on his command. But this idea seems far-fetched as we are now four years removed from Archer’s last season of outperforming his peripherals. After four years of underperforming, when is time to change our viewpoint?