EDITOR’S NOTE (July 6, 2018, 2 p.m.): On June 20, about a week before the annual update of our CARMELO NBA player projections, we published this article using CARMELO’s preliminary data for players who were set to be selected in the NBA draft. In our haste, we failed to notice a problem with our file of NCAA player statistics. The file was compiled from multiple data providers, and the providers used different conventions to list certain statistics such as a player’s true shooting percentage. In particular, for some years, the statistics were listed as percentages (e.g., 51.2 percent), while for others, they were listed as decimals (e.g., 0.512).

This made the rookie projections that we published in the June 20 article a little weird. Because some categories were affected and others were not, CARMELO tended to emphasize unaffected categories such as height, weight, age and minutes played when selecting comparable players. (We discovered this issue and corrected it before we published the final version of CARMELO.) For the most part, the erroneous projections were fairly similar to the corrected ones — both versions like 76ers draft pick Zhaire Smith, for example. But there are some exceptions. Kentucky’s Kevin Knox, the Knicks’ first-round selection, graded out reasonably well in the buggy version of the projections, but the new, corrected version views him as a high-risk, medium-reward prospect — not hopeless, but not a good value with the No. 9 pick.

The original article has been rewritten to reflect the correct data and projections. The projections in this article differ very slightly from the ones on the CARMELO player pages because they use scouting rankings rather than a player’s draft position, as our official CARMELO projections do.

We usually don’t release our CARMELO NBA projections until after the NBA draft. But this year, in an effort to procrastinate from other modeling-related tasks, I finished them a little early. We’ll publish the complete set of CARMELO projections later this month, but with the draft scheduled for Thursday night, I wanted to share the system’s take on the best NCAA prospects.

Our methodology for CARMELO is pretty much the same as last year, with only minor tweaks. It works by identifying statistically comparable players — for instance, John Wall is currently similar to Detroit Pistons Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas and to Deron Williams. For NBA veterans, we use a database of player statistics since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, and for rookies, we use a database of NCAA statistics since 2002, adjusted for pace and opponent strength, as provided to us by ESPN Stats & Information Group. The rookie projections also account for — indeed, heavily emphasize — where in the draft each player was selected. Because the 2018 draft hasn’t taken place yet, we can’t use that variable to evaluate this year’s prospects, so for now, I’ve used scouting rankings for both current and historical players.

As I said, the changes from last year’s model are pretty minor, but one of them is potentially relevant in the context of this year’s draft, which is heavy on big men, including traditional centers such as Arizona’s Deandre Ayton. As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has found, it’s become easier in recent seasons for teams to find once-desirable big men on the waiver wire or available for the minimum salary; the former All-Star center Roy Hibbert, who didn’t play at all in the NBA last year, is one perfect example. After evaluating the performance of players on minimum salaries over the past four years, we now use position-based replacement levels, which reflect that it takes a little bit more for big men to generate surplus value in the NBA than it does for guards and wings.

One last important warning: This list does not include projections for European players (so no Luka Doncic) or for other players who did not play NCAA basketball for some reason. Also, since Michael Porter Jr. played in only three NCAA games as a result of injury, we don’t project him on the basis of his NCAA statistics.

At any rate, here goes: The top prospects as projected by CARMELO, non-Doncic, non-Porter edition. Players are ranked by their upside wins above replacement, a version of WAR that treats below-replacement-level seasons as zero instead.

‘Stats + Scouts’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr. Player Scout Rank Pos. Age on 2/1/19 UPSIDE WAR THRU 2025 Top Comps 1 Mohamed Bamba 3 C 20.7 21.8 Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Derrick Favors 2 Jaren Jackson Jr. 4 C 19.4 18.8 Myles Turner, Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors 3 Deandre Ayton 1 C 20.5 17.3 Jahlil Okafor, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love 4 Zhaire Smith 16 SF 19.7 15.0 Brandan Wright, Malik Beasley, Kevon Looney 5 Wendell Carter Jr. 7 C 19.8 14.7 Noah Vonleh, Derrick Favors, Julius Randle 6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10 SG 20.6 14.1 Tyler Ennis, Wade Baldwin IV, Russell Westbrook 7 De’Anthony Melton 24 SG 20.7 13.8 Eric Bledsoe, Wade Baldwin IV, Patrick McCaw 8 Trae Young 8 PG 20.4 12.3 Dennis Smith Jr., Cameron Payne, D’Angelo Russell 9 Troy Brown 18 SG 19.5 11.3 Xavier Henry, Maurice Harkless, Justise Winslow 10 Marvin Bagley III 5 C 19.9 11.2 Julius Randle, Henry Ellenson, Tobias Harris 11 Mikal Bridges 14 SF 22.4 10.2 Chris Singleton, Tyler Lydon, Sam Dekker 12 Robert Williams 12 C 21.3 10.0 Cole Aldrich, John Henson, Ed Davis 13 Josh Okogie 25 SG 20.4 7.9 Alec Burks, Gary Harris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 14 Kevin Huerter 20 SG 20.4 7.3 Jeremy Lamb, Patrick McCaw, Doron Lamb 15 Lonnie Walker IV 13 SG 20.1 7.1 Xavier Henry, Avery Bradley, Malik Beasley 16 Miles Bridges 15 PF 20.9 6.5 Jordan Hamilton, Ryan Anderson, Luke Babbitt 17 Collin Sexton 11 PG 20.1 6.4 De’Aaron Fox, Jerryd Bayless, Dennis Smith Jr. 18 Jarred Vanderbilt 56 SF 19.8 6.2 Tony Bradley, Cliff Alexander, Harry Giles 19 Jacob Evans 30 SF 21.6 5.7 Wayne Ellington, Allen Crabbe, Sam Dekker 20 Jevon Carter 34 PG 23.4 5.5 Shabazz Napier, Frank Mason III, Paul Delaney III 21 Kevin Knox 9 PF 19.5 4.7 Tobias Harris, Thaddeus Young, Aaron Gordon 22 Bruce Brown Jr. 28 SG 22.5 4.6 Will Barton, Malcolm Lee, Glen Rice Jr. 23 Gary Trent Jr. 39 SG 20.0 3.9 James Young, Malachi Richardson, Malik Beasley 24 Donte DiVincenzo 26 PG 22.0 3.3 Malcolm Lee, Tyler Dorsey, Michael Qualls 25 Jerome Robinson 17 PG 21.9 3.3 Klay Thompson, Dominique Jones, Chase Budinger 26 Khyri Thomas 31 SG 22.7 3.0 Norman Powell, Wayne Ellington, Glen Rice Jr. 27 Ray Spalding 52 PF 21.9 2.8 Richard Solomon, Derrick Brown, Alade Aminu 28 Melvin Frazier 32 SF 22.4 2.6 Glen Rice Jr., L.J. Peak, J.P. Tokoto 29 Trevon Duval 53 PG 20.5 2.5 Marquis Teague, Javaris Crittenton, Eric Bledsoe 30 Omari Spellman 43 PF 21.5 2.5 D.J. Wilson, T.J. Leaf, Cameron Oliver 31 Gary Clark 57 PF 24.2 2.5 Trevor Booker, Melvin Ejim, Larry Nance Jr. 32 Chandler Hutchison 33 SF 22.8 2.5 Gerald Henderson, Dillon Brooks, Quincy Pondexter 33 Hamidou Diallo 37 SG 20.5 2.2 Zach LaVine, Malik Beasley, Frank Jackson 34 Aaron Holiday 22 PG 22.3 2.2 Demetrius Jackson, Ray McCallum, Tyshawn Taylor 35 Kevin Hervey 46 SF 22.6 2.1 Landry Fields, Alec Peters, Will Daniels 36 Grayson Allen 27 SG 23.3 2.1 Joe Harris, Isaiah Canaan, Nolan Smith 37 Bonzie Colson 68 PF 23.1 2.0 Perry Ellis, Matt Howard, Wayne Chism 38 Rawle Alkins 48 SG 21.3 1.9 Vander Blue, L.J. Peak, Michael Qualls 39 Shake Milton 40 SG 22.3 1.9 Allen Crabbe, Nick Johnson, Wayne Selden 40 Keita Bates-Diop 29 PF 23.0 1.7 Justin Harper, Robert Carter Jr., Quincy Pondexter 41 Tony Carr 54 PG 21.3 1.7 Sylven Landesberg, Shelvin Mack, Armon Johnson 42 Kenrich Williams 63 PF 24.2 1.6 Melvin Ejim, Dorian Finney-Smith, Larry Nance Jr. 43 Landry Shamet 49 PG 21.9 1.5 Tyler Dorsey, Andrew Harrison, Tim Quarterman 44 Jalen Brunson 35 PG 22.4 1.4 J’Covan Brown, A.J. Price, Shelvin Mack 45 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 59 SG 21.6 1.4 Wayne Ellington, Hollis Thompson, Wayne Selden 46 Chimezie Metu 45 C 21.9 1.4 Richaun Holmes, Gani Lawal, Richard Hendrix 47 Devonte’ Graham 44 PG 23.9 1.3 Marcus Paige, Frank Mason III, Ben Hansbrough 48 Moritz Wagner 36 C 21.8 1.1 Justin Harper, Ben Bentil, Kyle Kuzma 49 Justin Jackson 41 PF 22.0 1.1 Jarell Martin, Ben Bentil, Tony Mitchell 50 Theo Pinson 70 SG 23.2 1.0 DeAndre Liggins, Tim Quarterman, Brad Wanamaker 51 Keenan Evans 72 PG 22.4 1.0 Nick Johnson, Brandon Paul, J’Covan Brown 52 Vince Edwards 65 PF 22.8 0.9 Chandler Parsons, Solomon Hill, Da’Sean Butler 53 Malik Newman 47 SG 21.9 0.9 Tyler Dorsey, Wayne Ellington, Jodie Meeks 54 DJ Hogg 60 PF 22.4 0.9 Hollis Thompson, Tony Snell, Wayne Selden 55 Alize Johnson 61 PF 22.8 0.8 Kyle Kuzma, Pascal Siakam, James Webb III 56 Devon Hall 51 SG 23.6 0.8 Courtney Fells, Gilbert Brown, Norman Powell 57 Kostas Antetokounmpo 58 SF 20.7 0.7 Chris Walker, Cliff Alexander, Ioannis Papapetrou 58 Dakota Mathias 75 SG 23.6 0.6 Josh Carter, Rasheed Sulaimon, Elijah Johnson 59 Yante Maten 88 PF 22.5 0.6 Matt Howard, Mike Young, JaJuan Johnson 60 Brandon McCoy 64 C 20.6 0.3 Stephen Zimmerman, Jordan Williams, JJ Hickson 61 Doral Moore 86 C 22.0 0.3 Dexter Pittman, Chinemelu Elonu, Trevor Thompson 62 Jaylen Barford 92 SG 23.0 0.3 Charlie Westbrook, Dwayne Bacon, James Blackmon Jr. 63 Allonzo Trier 62 SG 23.0 0.2 Jabari Brown, Tyler Harvey, Jodie Meeks 64 MiKyle McIntosh 91 PF 24.5 0.1 Elias Harris, Romero Osby, Jamel Artis 65 George King 71 SF 25.0 0.1 Jamel Artis, Kenny Kadji, Jaron Blossomgame 66 Isaac Haas 73 C 23.3 0.0 Garrett Stutz, Dexter Pittman, Derrick Caracter Show more rows

Although CARMELO is reasonably deferential to the scout rankings, it has its share of disagreements. Although both CARMELO and the scouts are generally high on this year’s big men, CARMELO (in contrast to the scouts) likes Texas’s Mohamed Bamba and Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr. slightly more than Ayton, for instance — and much more than Duke’s Marvin Bagley III. CARMELO likes Oklahoma point guard Trae Young, but it likes Kentucky’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slightly more. It’s high on Texas Tech’s Zhaire Smith but down on Kentucky’s Kevin Knox.

As both an empirical and a philosophical matter, we think it’s hard to beat the consensus rankings of NBA scouts and franchises. NBA teams are smart these days: Many of them have projection systems that are at least as sophisticated as CARMELO, plus they have lots of other information that we can’t possibly account for. So if CARMELO disagrees with the consensus of NBA teams, we don’t necessarily want to take CARMELO’s side of the bet. With that said, CARMELO is probably doing a few things right. It puts a lot of emphasis on a player’s age, for instance — that’s one reason it likes Jackson, who is the youngest player on our list. And it tends not to like players who score but don’t have good secondary skills, such as Knox (and to a lesser extent Bagley).

We can get a better sense for where CARMELO differs from the scouts by taking the scouting rankings out of the system and running “pure stats” projections instead. (Note that these projections still account for a player’s height, weight, position and age, in addition to his NCAA statistics.) We would definitely not recommend that NBA teams draft players on the basis of the list — it’s pretty wacky — but it helps to reveal how CARMELO “thinks”:

‘Pure stats’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr. Player Scout Rank Pos. Age on 2/1/19 UPSIDE WAR THRU 2025 Top Comps 1 Jarred Vanderbilt 56 SF 19.8 19.7 Harry Giles, Tony Bradley, Cliff Alexander 2 De’Anthony Melton 24 SG 20.7 17.7 Jrue Holiday, Eric Bledsoe, Russell Westbrook 3 Zhaire Smith 16 SF 19.7 15.7 Justise Winslow, Malik Beasley, Brandan Wright 4 Troy Brown 18 SG 19.5 13.7 Justise Winslow, Thaddeus Young, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 5 Jaren Jackson Jr. 4 C 19.4 12.9 Myles Turner, Zach Collins, Karl-Anthony Towns 6 Trae Young 8 PG 20.4 12.4 Dennis Smith Jr., Markelle Fultz, Cameron Payne 7 Mohamed Bamba 3 C 20.7 11.9 Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Stephen Zimmerman 8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10 SG 20.6 11.7 Dejounte Murray, John Wall, Javaris Crittenton 9 Wendell Carter Jr. 7 C 19.8 11.2 Derrick Favors, Karl-Anthony Towns, Noah Vonleh 10 Josh Okogie 25 SG 20.4 10.4 Alec Burks, Sylven Landesberg, Gary Harris 11 Kevin Huerter 20 SG 20.4 7.5 Jeremy Lamb, Ben McLemore, Patrick McCaw 12 Robert Williams 12 C 21.3 7.1 Cole Aldrich, John Henson, Ed Davis 13 Trevon Duval 53 PG 20.5 7.1 Marquis Teague, Russell Westbrook, Javaris Crittenton 14 Marvin Bagley III 5 C 19.9 7.0 Henry Ellenson, Julius Randle, Jarrett Allen 15 Deandre Ayton 1 C 20.5 6.8 Jahlil Okafor, Henry Ellenson, Kevin Love 16 Gary Trent Jr. 39 SG 20.0 6.6 James Young, Malik Beasley, Ben McLemore 17 Jacob Evans 30 SF 21.6 6.4 Wayne Ellington, L.J. Peak, Aaron Harrison 18 Lonnie Walker IV 13 SG 20.1 6.2 Zach LaVine, Avery Bradley, Malik Beasley 19 Collin Sexton 11 PG 20.1 6.2 De’Aaron Fox, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless 20 Jevon Carter 34 PG 23.4 5.8 Shabazz Napier, Fred VanVleet, A.J. Slaughter 21 Miles Bridges 15 PF 20.9 5.6 Jordan Hamilton, Harrison Barnes, Ryan Anderson 22 Mikal Bridges 14 SF 22.4 5.5 Hollis Thompson, Rodney Williams, Davon Reed 23 Omari Spellman 43 PF 21.5 5.3 D.J. Wilson, T.J. Leaf, Cameron Oliver 24 Bruce Brown Jr. 28 SG 22.5 5.2 Will Barton, Tim Quarterman, Sonny Weems 25 Ray Spalding 52 PF 21.9 5.1 Richard Solomon, Alade Aminu, Markieff Morris 26 Tony Carr 54 PG 21.3 4.4 Reggie Jackson, Trey Burke, Sylven Landesberg 27 Bonzie Colson 68 PF 23.1 4.2 Matt Howard, Perry Ellis, Damion James 28 Gary Clark 57 PF 24.2 4.2 Trevor Booker, Melvin Ejim, Larry Nance Jr. 29 Hamidou Diallo 37 SG 20.5 4.1 Malik Beasley, Kobi Simmons, Zach LaVine 30 Rawle Alkins 48 SG 21.3 4.0 Ben McLemore, Elliot Williams, Vander Blue 31 Kevin Knox 9 PF 19.5 3.9 James Young, Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum 32 Donte DiVincenzo 26 PG 22.0 3.6 Tim Quarterman, Tyler Dorsey, Malcolm Lee 33 Kevin Hervey 46 SF 22.6 3.4 Landry Fields, Will Daniels, Alec Peters 34 Khyri Thomas 31 SG 22.7 3.2 Norman Powell, Isaiah Cousins, Wayne Ellington 35 Kenrich Williams 63 PF 24.2 3.1 Melvin Ejim, Dorian Finney-Smith, Wesley Johnson 36 Landry Shamet 49 PG 21.9 3.1 Tim Quarterman, Willie Warren, Tyler Dorsey 37 Melvin Frazier 32 SF 22.4 3.1 Glen Rice Jr., Vander Blue, L.J. Peak 38 Chandler Hutchison 33 SF 22.8 3.0 Landry Fields, Raymar Morgan, Gerald Henderson 39 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 59 SG 21.6 2.8 Wayne Ellington, Hollis Thompson, Reggie Bullock 40 Shake Milton 40 SG 22.3 2.7 Demetrius Jackson, Allen Crabbe, Nick Johnson 41 Kostas Antetokounmpo 58 SF 20.7 2.7 Chris Walker, Cliff Alexander, DeAndre Jordan 42 Keenan Evans 72 PG 22.4 2.7 Erick Green, Nick Johnson, Isaiah Canaan 43 Jerome Robinson 17 PG 21.9 2.5 Klay Thompson, Jordan Clarkson, Shelvin Mack 44 Chimezie Metu 45 C 21.9 2.5 Cameron Moore, Damian Jones, Richaun Holmes 45 Theo Pinson 70 SG 23.2 2.5 DeAndre Liggins, Brad Wanamaker, Tim Quarterman 46 Doral Moore 86 C 22.0 2.3 Robert Upshaw, Dexter Pittman, Ed Davis 47 Brandon McCoy 64 C 20.6 2.2 Jahlil Okafor, Marreese Speights, Stephen Zimmerman 48 Alize Johnson 61 PF 22.8 2.2 Kyle Kuzma, Pascal Siakam, Marquis Gilstrap 49 Yante Maten 88 PF 22.5 2.1 Mike Muscala, Andrew Nicholson, JaJuan Johnson 50 Aaron Holiday 22 PG 22.3 2.0 Demetrius Jackson, Ray McCallum, A.J. Price 51 Jalen Brunson 35 PG 22.4 2.0 J’Covan Brown, Demetrius Jackson, Anthony Barber 52 Vince Edwards 65 PF 22.8 2.0 Chandler Parsons, Quincy Pondexter, Solomon Hill 53 DJ Hogg 60 PF 22.4 2.0 Hollis Thompson, Tony Snell, Reggie Bullock 54 Grayson Allen 27 SG 23.3 2.0 Ron Baker, Joe Harris, Dionte Christmas 55 Justin Jackson 41 PF 22.0 1.9 Jarell Martin, Tony Mitchell, Ben Bentil 56 Malik Newman 47 SG 21.9 1.8 Tyler Dorsey, Antonio Blakeney, Luke Kennard 57 Devonte’ Graham 44 PG 23.9 1.8 Marcus Paige, Frank Mason III, Ben Hansbrough 58 Keita Bates-Diop 29 PF 23.0 1.8 Justin Harper, Robert Carter Jr., Wayne Chism 59 Moritz Wagner 36 C 21.8 1.7 Marcus Morris, Justin Harper, Brandon Ashley 60 Dakota Mathias 75 SG 23.6 1.6 Rasheed Sulaimon, Josh Carter, Elijah Johnson 61 Jaylen Barford 92 SG 23.0 1.5 Jordan Crawford, Charlie Westbrook, Dwayne Bacon 62 Devon Hall 51 SG 23.6 1.3 Courtney Fells, Gilbert Brown, Travis Releford 63 Allonzo Trier 62 SG 23.0 0.7 Jabari Brown, Anthony Goods, Jodie Meeks 64 MiKyle McIntosh 91 PF 24.5 0.4 Elias Harris, Sam Young, Romero Osby 65 Isaac Haas 73 C 23.3 0.2 Garrett Stutz, Dexter Pittman, Derrick Caracter 66 George King 71 SF 25.0 0.2 Jamel Artis, Jaron Blossomgame, Kenny Kadji Show more rows

This list goes to show that ranking players purely on the basis of their college stats is probably an exercise in futility — or at least would lead to some very unconventional picks. On a pure stats basis, the top pick is … Kentucky’s Jarred Vanderbilt (?!?), who ranks just 56th in ESPN’s scouting rankings. Vanderbilt is a weird case, as injury limited him to just 238 minutes played for Kentucky. He was extremely productive in those minutes, averaging 19.7 points and 26.5 rebounds per 100 possessions, but his lack of shooting ability undoubtedly limits his upside, at least relative to where CARMELO pegs it.

Smith is more typical of the types of players CARMELO likes. At Texas Tech, he wasn’t a high-usage player, but usage rate tends not to translate very well from college ball into the NBA. On the other hand, scoring efficiency does, and Smith was highly efficient, shooting 55.6 percent from the field and showing 3-point range. His other statistics, such as blocks, steals and assist-to-turnover ratio, were also mostly pretty good, and he’s one of the younger players in the draft.

In other cases, CARMELO isn’t quite so contrarian. Jackson, Young, Bamba, Gilgeous-Alexander and Wendell Carter Jr. all rank in the top 10 according to both the pure stats and the scouting rankings. Overall, there’s a reasonably strong correlation (.53) between a player’s scouting ranking and his pure stats CARMELO upside score.