The BBC’s Richard Galpin in Donetsk says that overnight he had not heard any of the heavy artillery barrages that took place before the truce, although there were some unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian army positions had been shelled near Donetsk airport.

Still, it’s safe to say that the ceasefire has held. For the moment, there is no sign of significant fighting.

But one should not confuse a ceasefire with a surrender. Rebel leaders have made it clear that they will pursue an agenda of independence for ‘Novorussiya’ from Ukraine. Our sources in Kiev say that some of the Ukrainian volunteer battalions have said that they will abide by a “tactical ceasefire” but will not accept a surrender and will want to relaunch an attack to retake Donetsk and Lugansk sometime in the future. And the consensus among people we’ve spoken to in Kiev is that there is no appetite at this moment for anything that looks like surrender.

At the end of the day this may be the first real ceasefire of the war, but with so many issues unresolved it is perhaps likely that this is only a small pause in the conflict.

And this is where the Poroshenko administration will have to walk a very fine line. Russia is clearly pushing for the division of Ukraine. The separatists are still prepared to fight. Poroshenko’s allies in the West appear to be more interested to an end to the conflict than a Ukrainian victory. The Ukrainian government is still weak, the military unable to make gains against this level of attack, and the Ukrainian people are not yet willing to part with eastern Ukraine (even Crimea). In the end, if Poroshenko makes a deal with Russia his domestic support could collapse, and if he does not then his country will continue to be invaded by one of the most powerful countries on earth.