C. Trent Rosecrans

crosecrans@enquirer.com

The Blog Above Replacement is a daily look at the Reds, their minor leagues and whatever else is on the mind of Enquirer Reds beat writers, C. TrentRosecrans and Zach Buchanan.

Yes, the Reds’ bullpen stinks. That’s not up for debate or really, at this point, too much analysis. That’s it. It stinks.

But here’s the thing, building bullpens is tough, especially on the cheap. The Rays have apparently found the secret sauce, but nobody else has. And for all that, Tampa Bay is still just a .500 team at this point and was 80-82 last year.

The reason is bullpens are notoriously volatile. I particularly liked this headline from Beyond The Box Score: “Consistent bullpens and unicorns.”

The basic point is it’s hard to predict bullpen performance, because of small sample sizes and leverage situations in which they appear, as well as the fact that for the most part, relievers are inferior to starters — that’s why they’re relievers. Even the sainted Rays had one of baseball’s best relievers, Wade Davis, and didn’t even realize it because he was starting and then he was a middle reliever before the Rays traded him to Kansas City, who tried him as a starter first before moving him to the bullpen and he became the best reliever in the game.

I also found SamYam’s analysis at Athletics Nation from last year quite interesting.

Throw money at relievers? That’s best done when it’s the last piece of a team building puzzle, not the first. That’s why the Reds’ bullpen currently has no player making more than $1 million.

It’s not that the Reds are saying they’re broke, as some interpret this lack of spending. It’s that they’re saying it’s not a prudent use of resources. It’s like saying, “I make $50,000 a year and need a car. A Mercedes is better than a Toyota, I’m going to get a Mercedes.” That is not a good use of personal resources.

So yeah, the easy answer is “the bullpen should be better.” That’s true and not up for debate. But how to fix it and what you need to fix is the difference. You need to get to work every day and it’d be nice if the air conditioning worked in your car — but your hope is to go to work enough and progress at work to be able to get that nicer car in the future.

Last season so many people bemoaned the fact that the Reds kept getting pitchers in trades and not position players — how many starters do they need? The answer, as we see, is a lot. Because not all of those starters will be starters and not all of those starters will be successful, consistent relievers.

If I’m Bryan Price in the third year of a three-year contract, I’m pulling my hair out (and stop with the ‘He’s a pitching coach, he should coach ‘em up.’ This isn’t high school football, it’s the big leagues, talent trumps all). But in team building, the last thing you spend money on is the most volatile part, the bullpen. And besides that, at this point of the year, if you’re pulling out your checkbook for a Band-Aid, where are you getting that? It’s not like there’s a surplus of qualified relievers waiting for the right paycheck out there (and even then, you’d have to convince them to come here over all the other teams, and why would they do that?). Do you want to trade a top prospect just so this team wins 76 games instead of 66? That’s silly — because as has been stated before, it’s not about 2016.

MINOR LEAGUE ROUNDUP

Triple-A: Scranton W/B 4, Louisville 2; Scranton W/B 2, Louisville 0: In the first game, A.J. Morris threw six scoreless innings, allowing six hits and striking out one. However, J.J. Hoover gave up four runs on four hits and a walk in 2/3 of an inning in the seventh (and final in the doubleheader) for the loss. It was Hoover’s fourth appearance and first time he’d allowed a run. In the second game, Cody Reed took the loss, giving up two runs on four hits over six. He struck out six with a walk. [Box][Box]

Double-A: Pensacola 3, Mississippi 2: The Blue Wahoos scored all three runs in the third, with 1B Kyle Parker breaking an 0-for-18 stretch with an RBI double. He then scored on 2B Brandon Dixon’s single. LF Phillip Ervin was 2 for 3 with a double and his 16th stolen base of the season. Amir Garrett gave up a run on four hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out six. His ERA sits at 1.51 on the season. [Box]

High-A: Daytona 4, Charlotte 3: Every Tortuga starter had a hit, including two each by 2B Angelo Gumbs, 1B Avain Rachal and C Chad Tromp. CF Jonathan Reynoso drove in two. [Box]

Low-A: Lake County 11, Dayton 10, 10 innings: C Tyler Stephenson was 3 for 5 with a grand slam and 5 RBI. LF Zack Shields was 2 for 5 with three RBI. 2B Shed Long hit his fifth homer of the season. [Box]

THE ROTATION

1. ESPN’s Keith Law has his first mock draft up and has the Reds taking Mercer OF Kyle Lewis. You will hear more about Lewis here at the Enquirer soon.

2. Former Red Travis Wood was the hero for the Cubs on Thursday, working out of a bases-loaded jam and then walking with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 12th for the win. [Chicago Tribune]

3. Bartolo Colon’s secret family. [NY Post]

4. Jayson Stark on baseball’s pace of play problem. [ESPN.com]

5. An Easter egg you might have missed in “Captain America: Civil War.” I know I did. [AV Club]