FC Cincinnati is noticeably and statistically better with Kenney Walker playing

Alan Koch has said previously that Kenney Walker is under-appreciated, with his influence more apparent when he’s not playing. To Koch, people don’t fully comprehend the quality of the Futbol Club Cincinnati defensive midfielder and his weekly contributions.

But what might go unnoticed in the eye test is apparent in statistics: FC Cincinnati is a better team when Walker is on the field.

At least, that was the norm in the club’s first two seasons. Now a month into the third, a minor concussion has resulted in what would’ve caused a major ripple in 2017: achieving results without Walker.

In the 1-0 win over Indy Eleven on March 31, he sustained a concussion after getting blindsided in the fourth minute. He was substituted for Will Seymore in the 17th. Seymore started in last weekend's loss to Louisville City, and to this point, has played more minutes than Walker.

But Thursday, Walker had full participation in practice for the first time since the injury and could be cleared to play Sunday afternoon at the Bethlehem Steel.

If he doesn't play, however, his absence could lead to a tough question needing a rapid solution: If the holding midfielder is dropped from the starting lineup, how does Cincinnati ensure that doesn’t mean a drop in points too?

FC Cincinnati currently sits sixth in the United Soccer League Eastern Conference standings with six points from three matches, which ties the club's best start to a season.

The club made wholesale changes to its lineup in the offseason, adding three holding midfielders. Walker and Garrett Halfhill were among the nine returnees from last year, while Seymore, Tyler Gibson and Richie Ryan were signed. With significant depth at the position – even with Gibson breaking his leg – Koch has more defensive mids at his disposal than any Cincinnati squad previously.

More depth, in theory, should mean less reliance on certain individuals, such as Walker. Though if performances from previous seasons prove anything, it’s that playing without him has a direct association with FC Cincinnati’s winning percentage lowering. Koch said as much after practice Tuesday.

“Last year, 100 percent,” head coach Alan Koch said about Walker’s absence altering results. “Without Kenney last year, we lost a major, major piece of the group. This year, knock on wood, hopefully not.”

In the 52 USL games, Walker has started, Cincinnati has won 48.1 percent of its matches. Additionally, the club has earned at least a point 73.1 percent of the time. Without Walker, the winning percentage drops to 33.3 percent in wins and 66.6 percent in matches with at least a draw.

Of course, there are variables.

Because soccer is such a fluid game, especially for someone who plays a position crucial to the club’s attack and defense alike, it’s difficult to measure a wins-above-replacement statistic. For example, Walker started in the win over Indy, but he missed the majority of the match and got subbed when it was still scoreless.

What’s concrete, though, is FC Cincinnati was noticeably better in 2017 when Walker started, maintaining a better points-accumulated percentage, in addition to a higher goals per game average and a lower goals conceded one.

With Walker in 2017

Winning percentage: 38.5 Percent

Points earned percent: 73.1 percent

Goal scored average: 1.59 per game

Goals conceded average: 1.42 per game

Without Walker in 2017

Winning percentage: 28.6 percent

Points earned percent: 57.1 percent

Goal scored average: 0.85 per game

Goals conceded average: 2.0 per game

Stats aren’t everything, but they are something, and in Cincinnati’s first season under Koch, playing Walker usually meant earning a better result. (It’s worth noting the 27-year-old has essentially started every league match when he wasn’t injured or suspended.)

“He’s a big influence on our group,” Koch said. “He’s a good player, he’s an intelligent player and he helps manage the game a lot, which is something you don’t really see when you go watch games. If you actually watch a player within the game, you’ll see a lot of the little stuff he does.”

For Walker to maintain this level of influence on a roster that’s constantly been overhauled is a testament to his consistency that, unlike his involvement in matches, shouldn’t be overlooked.

Only three players remain from Cincinnati’s inaugural roster. One is Jimmy McLaughlin, who was a regular starter in the first two seasons, but has only played 20 minutes in 2018; Another is Corben Bone, who’s also been a starter, but is playing an attacking role in the midfield now, as opposed to more defensively beside Walker in previously. The latter has seen his role effectively remain concrete.

“He’s a big, big part of this club, and he has been since day one,” Koch said. “For us to have a player like him who has that big of influence on the group is great. It’s great for us and it’s great for him.”