ALL TIED WITH A WEEK TO GO

With just a week to go until the General Election, Labour and the Conservatives are tied in this week’s ComRes telephone poll for the Daily Mail and ITV News. Labour are up three points to 35% to draw level with the Tories. While the trend all year in ComRes’s series of phone polls has shown the Conservatives ahead, today’s poll is a reminder of just how close the election is.

Among the smaller parties, the Liberal Democrats have yet to break out from the pre-campaign doldrums (they are currently on 7%) and are just one point ahead of the Greens on 6%. UKIP currently stand to finish as the third largest party in terms of vote share in Great Britain on 11%.

Con 35% (-1)

Lab 35% (+3)

Lib Dem 7% (-1)

UKIP 11% (+1)

Green 6% (+1)

Others 6% (-3)

There are four in ten (41%) likely voters who either don’t know who they will vote for or may still change their mind about the party they are currently considering, adding further to the uncertainty of the election result.

Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling at ComRes said: “With a week to go the race to Number 10 remains too close to call and with a third of voters who could still change their minds there is still plenty left to play for. In this election, like no other in recent memory, even small shifts could be significant to the final outcome. With four in ten likely voters saying they don’t know who they will vote for or may still change their mind from their current choice before next Thursday it all adds to the uncertainty of the final outcome. Many of these ‘undecideds’ will likely turn out and vote for the party they supported all along and they often fall out as does the rest of the country in the end.”

With the leaders’ debates and increased coverage of David Cameron and Ed Miliband during the campaign, Mr Cameron is still clearly the preferred Prime Minister with half (51%) saying he would make the better Prime Minister compared to 32% choosing Ed Miliband (up 3 points since the start of the campaign). This suggests that any improvement in Miliband’s image has been marginal and not changed much in relation to David Cameron.

Contradicting David Cameron’s pledge this week to set ‘English-only tax rates’, more than half of all adults in Britain think England and Scotland should set their income tax levels together (54%). Less than two fifths think England and Scotland should set their income tax levels separately (38%).

Half of all Britons say it would not be legitimate for the SNP to help Labour form a government, even if the Conservatives won the most MPs (50%). However, over a third (36%) say this would be legitimate.

In a significant change since the start of the campaign, two thirds of likely voters naming a party now say they have definitely decided who they will vote for at the General Election next week (66%, up from 50% in March). Around a third say they may still change their minds (34%).

Labour voters are more likely than Conservative voters to say they have definitely decided who they will vote for at the General Election (73% v 65%).

Findings in detail:

Q: For the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your own view?

Option 1 % % Option 2 Don’t know David Cameron would make a better Prime Minister than Ed Miliband 51% (+1) 32% (+3) Ed Miliband would make a better Prime Minister than David Cameron 17% (-3)

Base: All GB adults (n=1,005). Figures in brackets show percentage point change from the first day of the campaign, 30th March (All GB adults, n=1,005).

Q: For the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your own view?

Option 1 % % Option 2 Don’t know England and Scotland should set their own income tax levels separately 38% 54% England and Scotland should set their income tax levels together 8% It would be legitimate for the SNP to help Labour form a government even if the Conservatives won most MPs 36% 50% It would not be legitimate for the SNP to help Labour form a government even if the Conservatives won most MPs 14%

Base: All GB adults (n=1,005). Figures in brackets show percentage point change from the first day of the campaign, 30th March (All GB adults, n=1,005).

Q: Have you definitely decided the party you will vote for at the General Election or may you still change your mind?

% Definitely decided 66% (+16) May still change my mind 34% (-16)

Base: All GB adults likely to vote and identifying with a party (n=790). Figures in brackets show percentage point change from 23rd March (All GB adults likely to vote and giving a voting intention, n=812).

ComRes press contacts: Andrew Hawkins 07971 209995, Katharine Peacock 07880 365773, Tom Mludzinski 07880 493597