Runoff would be most likely between Marine Le Pen and either Nicolas Sarkozy or Alain Juppé, French survey finds

This article is more than 4 years old

This article is more than 4 years old

French president François Hollande would be crushed if he stood for re-election next year, according to an opinion poll published on Tuesday.

Already France’s least-loved president, Hollande would be routed in the first round of voting, the survey for newspaper Le Figaro and TV news channel LCI said.

The Socialist leader would get 11% to 15% of the vote according to nine possible combinations of the various candidates, according to the poll by TNS Sofres-OnePoint.

The figures suggest the runoff would be contested between the conservative Republicans party and the far-right Front National, a scenario last seen in 2002.

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The poll was conducted 2-5 September among 1,006 voters.

Hollande, deeply unpopular because of his handling of the economy, has yet to announce whether he will run for a second term.

In a book published last month, he was quoted as saying he had “the desire” to run, but would not put his name forward “if the signs are that it could not lead to a possibility of victory.”

Under France’s presidential system, if no one garners an absolute majority in the first round, the two frontrunners participate in a runoff.

On the right, the Republicans will hold primaries in November that are likely to be a race between former president Nicolas Sarkozy and former premier Alain Juppé.

The Front National, meanwhile, will be championed by Marine Le Pen, the daughter of the party’s outspoken founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen.

The survey found Le Pen and either Sarkozy or Juppé would qualify for the second round on the basis of current voting intentions.

Juppe would pick up 33% and Le Pen 29% in one first-round scenario. In another, Sarkozy would reap 27% and Le Pen 29%.

Hollande’s former economy minister, 38-year-old Emmanuel Macron, who quit on Tuesday and has hinted he will run, would gain 15%-20% of the vote, the survey said.

Jean-Luc Melenchon, of the Left party, would get 10-13%.

The first round of voting takes place on 23 April, with the runoff on 7 May.