National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Don't Edit

CLEVELAND, Ohio - If you're on the fence about buying new car tires this year in advance of winter, listen up.

This might be a winter when you'll rarely need that extra tread to get through the snow.

The National Weather Service says there is a 70 percent chance of El Nino this winter.

If history holds true, El Nino would mean less snow - potentially a lot less snow - in Ohio.

A typical El Nino winter weather pattern is shown in the map above.

Don't Edit

Cleveland, Akron weather during 3 recent major El Ninos

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Don't Edit

Little snowfall in Northeast Ohio has accompanied each of the last three major El Ninos.

32.8 inches in 2015-16 at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport.

34 inches in 1997-98.

38 inches in 1982-83.

These were three of the four smallest snowfall totals in Cleveland over the last 40 winters.

Normal snowfall for Cleveland is 68.1 inches. The record of 117.9 inches was recorded in 2004-05, and both 1995-96 (101.1 inches) and 1981-82 (100.5 inches) also topped the century mark.

At the Akron-Canton Airport, where the normal amount is 47.5 inches and the record is 82, snow totaled just 30.2 inches in the El Nino year of 2015-16, 22.2 inches in 1997-98 and 38.8 in 1982-83, the National Weather Service said.

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Winter temperatures in El Nino years

Don't Edit

Lisa DeJong, Plain Dealer file (December 2015)

Don't Edit

El Nino winters also have been warmer in Cleveland.

Out of the last 40 years, the major El Nino winters rank third (1982-83), fifth (1997-98) and seventh (2015-16) for average temperatures, each running about 5 or 6 degrees above the 40-year average, cleveland.com found in researching daily weather records.

Don't Edit

Using 2015-16 as a guide

Don't Edit

National Weather Service

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

What would a repeat 2015-16 be like this year?

Consider the weather service's summary for 2015-16, a winter in which the high temperature, as an example, was 65 degrees on Dec. 23, 59 degrees on Christmas Eve and 50 degrees on Christmas Day.

"Winter 2015-16 was greatly influenced by a strong El Nino, one of the strongest El Ninos ever. A strong El Nino usually produces warm winters in northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania and this was no exception. December was the warmest ever, some 13 degrees warmer than normal. There was essentially no snow in December outside of the snowbelt. The warm weather eventually gave way to a more seasonable January. February had some cold days early on, but by February 20th we were on our way to an early start to Spring. March was warm but just when we thought that Spring was here to stay, we had an April cold snap! Most areas had more snow in April 2016 than in March."

Don't Edit

What is El Nino?

Don't Edit

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Don't Edit

Every three to seven years, surface waters across a large portion of the Pacific Ocean warm or cool about 2-5 degrees from what is normal, according to the National Weather Service.

When the ocean temperatures are warmer, an El Nino occurs, leading to changes in wind patterns and in weather patterns across North America - generally causing drier conditions in Ohio and much of the Midwest, and wetter conditions across the South.

To the north, and across much of western Canada, temperatures also tend to be warmer in El Nino years. Ohio is on the fringe of the area for warmer temperatures, according to various National Weather Service maps.

But, these are general trends. Each El Nino can produce different levels of change.

Don't Edit

What about La Nina?

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Don't Edit

Much of the opposite occurs during El Nino's sister condition, La Nina, when ocean surface temperatures are below normal.

In these years, winter temperatures tend to be higher than normal across the Southeast and cooler than normal in northern areas.

Check out the video below for an explainer, on why all this occurs.

Don't Edit

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Don't Edit

So should we expect big changes in Ohio this winter?

Don't Edit

Marvin Fong, Plain Dealer file (February 2016)

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

The National Weather Service said determination of an El Nino is very influential in seasonal weather forecasting. But this is only what to expect "on average" over a long period of time, not every day.

Even in the "warm" El Nino winter of 2015-16, the temperature in Cleveland did dip to 1 degree in mid-January and into single digits on several other days.

And while snowfall was sparse, 9.1 inches did fall over three days in early February 2016.

Overall, the winter temperatures were warmer and there was a lot less snow than normal.

Don't Edit

More Cleveland weather history

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Don't Edit

Search the cleveland.com/datacentral Cleveland weather database to find temperature and precipitation details for every day since 1871. You can search by year, month, holiday and sports events such as Indians home openers or Browns home games.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner.

Don't Edit