Christian Schneider

Opinion columnist

On Oct. 7 of 2011, Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain sat down with CBN News' David Brody to answer a few questions. After discussing God's role in Cain's campaign ("God has been in this since the beginning," Cain claimed), Brody dished up a chocolate éclair of a question:

"Are you ready for the gotcha questions that are coming from the media and others?," Body asked. "Like who’s the president of Uzbekistan?"

"When they ask me who is the president of Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan I’m going to say, 'You know, I don’t know. Do you know?" Cain responded. "When I get ready to go visit that country, I’ll know who it is."

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Clearly, Cain was more adept at selling pizza franchises than statesmanship. Yet after this "gaffe," something odd happened: Cain began rising in the polls. Just a week before the CBN interview, Cain had been mired at around 9% of the vote, well behind frontrunners Rick Perry (26.5%) and Mitt Romney (23%.) But by the end of October, Perry cratered and Cain overtook Romney for the lead in the RealClear average of polls. Just a week after his Uzbekistan comments, Cain even pulled ahead of Barack Obama in a Rasmussen poll, 43% to 41%.

When historians look back at 2016's presidential election, they are likely to emphasize what a surprise both Donald Trump's victories in the Republican primary and general election were. Others have argued the temperamental change within the GOP began with John McCain's selection of proud anti-intellectual Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008.

Indeed, all the seeds of what would eventually become Trumpism were glaringly evident in Cain's short-lived campaign three years later. Cain's candidacy is when the Republican Party's Mogwais first had water poured on them and turned into gremlins. And in 2016, the troublemakers finally seized control of the party.

The comparisons ring true all over the board: Cain, like Trump, was an outsider — both began their races as businessmen whose slippery grasp of issues was overcome by bombast and charm.

Trump rode slogans like "lock her up" and "build the wall" to the presidency; Cain shot to the front of the GOP field by pitching a preposterous tax plan he called "9-9-9," which appealed primarily to enthusiasts of saying the same number three times in a row. He was a front-running presidential candidate who, when a number of one poll’s respondents were asked to describe him in one word, used the word “pizza.”

But primarily, both the Cain and Trump campaigns showed that a Republican campaign can flourish as long as it irritates the right people. Late in October of 2011, Cain's campaign released a bizarre online ad featuring mustachioed campaign manager Mark Block coolly smoking a cigarette; many of the political cognoscenti tut-tutted its tone-deaf glorification of cigarettes, but Cain raised $5 million in contributions following the ad's release. Late night hosts played the ad repeatedly; Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker noted that in one ad, Block "took a drag off a cigarette, blew smoke at the camera and sent the political class into coughing fits."

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Cain's surge came to a screeching halt in November, as evidence surfaced that as many as four women had accused him of sexual harassment during his time as CEO of the National Restaurant Association in the late 1990s. Another woman claimed that she and Cain had carried on a secret, 13-year affair with Cain that ended shortly before he began his presidential run. Cain quickly "suspended" his campaign in December, amid plummeting poll numbers.

Of course, Trump was able to survive similar accusations during his unlikely victory, including release of the "Access Hollywood" video in which he joked about assaulting women. But Trump was able to survive where Cain was not for three reasons.

Trump had already won the nomination, and Republicans had little other choice to stick with him.

Trump's sexual predilections were already a matter of public record — they came as a surprise to no one.

And ultimately, Trump faced a general election candidate who was almost as unpopular as he was.

While Trump's rise appeared shocking, in retrospect, all the signs for success were embedded in Cain's campaign; the only difference was, Trump was shameless enough to withstand the torrent of negative media. Both candidates are signs that a campaign can gain traction simply by doing things that prompt political pundits to throw their laptops out of a window.

During the Trump era, conservatives have been relegated to dreaming of a party that one day resembles the one made popular by Ronald Reagan. But there is exactly zero evidence that the Palin-Cain-Trump continuum is complete. Just as Cain begat Trump, it's entirely possible Trump will spawn even more virulent extremists. (See: Moore, Roy.)

And if you're not convinced, all this will be detailed in the memoirs of future President Kid Rock.

Christian Schneider is a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors. Follow him on Twitter: @Schneider_CM.