Volk is a nasty clinch fighter, because he attacks in both static positions and transitions. He will punch his way into the collar ties, and follow opponents with punches out of the tieups.

The size difference between Holloway and Volkanovski is comical, which makes me wonder how much success Volk will be able to have against Max inside. Dustin Poirier is larger than Volkanovski, but struggled immensely at handling Max in the clinch, who framed Poirier off with incredibly urgency, turned him onto the cage, and let some knees to the body go. Unlike Aldo who was primarily all-defense in tie-ups, Holloway is voraciously potent and difficult to get to inside. I don’t know if it’s a safe zone for Volk.

It’s difficult for me to explain why I’ve come off Volkanovski in his recent performances, but a lot of it has to do with the state of the opponents he’s beaten. Mendes looked like a shell of his former self, and still managed to badly hurt Volk and even knock him down at one point. It was largely a product of Volk’s physicality and Mendes’ diminished physicality that secured the win (see; Volkanovski hulking his way out of Mendes’ back control). That fight with Aldo was a serious bummer.

Mendes and Aldo have become burst fighters who are destined to lose any fight that they don’t finish. In their aged states, they have gotten worse at winning rounds. At this point, it doesn’t look like Aldo will be able to beat anyone he can’t finish. As such, Volkanovski’s process-driven output made a winning proposition difficult for Mendes and Aldo. Holloway is unquestionably the best and most dangerous round-winner Volkanovski will have faced in his career. This means Volk will have to make his clinch work and pressure count, while being able to keep pace with a higher output, more offensively deep fighter. We still don’t know if/how Volkanovski’s game flourishes over five rounds. He sustains pace quite well, but how does he do against someone who ramps up the volume in the final couple frames?

The What Else

My friend and fellow Fight Site analyst, Ryan Wagner, has brought up the directionality of this matchup as a potentially problematic area for Volkanovski. Against Aldo, most of Volk’s legitimate offense came along the fence in the third round. For all of his 2019 flaws, in open space, Aldo is still enormously difficult to pressure which made mounting significant offense in open space a serious challenge. When Volk isn’t pressuring and oscillating between the pocket and the clinch (along the fence), he usually isn’t winning. Holloway might still be the best lateral mover in the division (as Ortega can attest), and his ability to fight off the backfoot is quite potent over five rounds. Volk needs to be pressuring for the entire duration of the bout, whereas Max can traverse the ranges more comfortably. If Max just doesn’t concede range the way Mendes did, Volk has to strike in open space. I don’t know how much confidence I’m supposed to have in that kind of fight.

The Aldo fight was an odd one from Volkanovski, and one I’m not sure that Volk won particularly clearly. Alexander mostly pressured behind countless feints, tapped the legs with inside leg kicks, and didn’t commit to exchanges against the faster, more powerful counterpuncher. Aldo did indeed look horrific, but it also looked as though the Brazilian didn’t feel threatened by anything Volkanovski threw and thus was bullshitted out of the first two rounds. Volk didn’t really get much rolling until Round 3. I have a hard time seeing Holloway being feinted into complete inertia, nor will Volk be able to leverage his typical cardio advantage.

Similarly, I remain skeptical of Holloway’s performance against Frankie Edgar, despite a clean 50-45 shutout. It wasn’t a mess; against a better pure wrestler, Max stuffed nearly all of Edgar’s takedown attempts, countered with the jab off the backfoot, and diligently controlled the clinch. The problematic area for me was in Holloway’s cage craft and his diminished efforts to the body. Volkanovski’s defense to the head is improved, but his body is an incredibly inviting target, and yet no one has managed to commit to a lengthy assault to his torso. What I’m saying is this: If Holloway approaches this fight sloppily and doesn’t hammer Volkanovski’s body all night long, he deserves to lose.

Beyond this, there’s just a general question of where Max is. Maybe we’re being a bit too harsh on the Edgar performance. Or maybe he really is signaling a hit to his confidence and craft.

Prediction

Despite Holloway’s undeniable greatness, I have some concerns not so much about his physicality or “prime” but in his gameplanning and his ability to reconfigure his approach. I don’t generally like talking about “versions” of a fighter, but if Holloway shows up like he did against Edgar, he could lose this. Conversely, Volkanovski has been consistent and impressive on paper, but I still struggle to pin down how he stacks up here. He was nearly finished by a shot Chad Mendes and his performance against Aldo was incredibly smart from a strategic perspective, but unenlightening from a tactical one. If he’s denied the clinch or if he’s not moving forward, Max is simply better than him in open space. How much can Volk’s pressure dull Max’s volume? If Volk just tries to work in the clinch, does he get laced? How much work can Volk do if he’s significantly outsized inside against such a disciplined defensive clincher as Max? What does Max have left in the tank?

There is a lesson I’ve learned from MMA this year, and it has served quite a few of my upset picks at the highest level. From Zhang to Adesanya to Usman: When a streaking contender is fighting a champion in whom the cracks are beginning to show, pick the streaking contender.

Final Pick: Alexander Volkanovski by Unanimous Decision