Democratic Primaries True Vote Model: Bernie has 52%

Richard Charnin

Updated: July 21, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

LINKS TO POSTS

Democratic Primaries spread sheet

From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

This model estimates Sanders’ True Vote. The base case estimate is that Sanders had 52% of the total vote in primaries and caucuses.

It is important to note that Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his

1) recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 190,000.

2) recorded share by greater than the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion.

Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on?

TRUE VOTE MODEL BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS

1.Sanders won the caucuses with 63.9%

2. 10% of voters were disenfranchised (voter rolls, provisional ballots, etc.) .

3. Sanders won 70% of uncounted votes

4. 15% of Sanders’ votes flipped to Clinton.

Sensitivity analysis tables display the effects of flipped votes and uncounted provisional ballots over a range of assumptions.

Sanders NATIONAL VOTE Sensitivity Uncounted Ballots 70% of Uncounted Votes to Sanders 5% 10% 15% Machine counted Votes Flipped to Sanders Sanders Total Share 20% 51.7% 52.5% 53.2% 15% 51.2% 51.88% 52.6% 10% 50.6% 51.3% 52.0%

CALIFORNIA

Assuming a) 30% of California voters were disenfranchised, b) Sanders had 75% of provisional ballots, c) 10% of votes were flipped, Sanders won CA with a 55% share.

On Election Day, Clinton led Sanders 56.4-43.6%. Sanders leads in votes counted since ElectionDay by 52.3-47.7% . This indicates that approximately 15% of Sander’s machine votes were flipped to Clinton. Sanders late vote share exceeded his Election Day share in every CA county. Greg Palast explains why Bernie won California.

Simple California Vote share Model

There was no exit poll, so let’s assume the following.

a) Party-ID: 57% Independents vs. 43% Democrats

(estimated based on 2014-2016 surveys)

b) Sanders won 70% of Independents



Result:

Clinton needed an implausible 85% of Democrats to match her 53.5% share.

Party-ID….PCT…… Sanders….Clinton

IND……… 57.0%….. 70.0%….. 30.0%

DEM…….. 43.0%…….15.3%….. 84.7%

Total…….100.0%….. 46.5%….. 53.5%

Recorded……………. 46.5%….. 53.5% Sensitivity Analysis What if: Clinton had 65% of Democrats?

Sanders would have won by 55-45%. Assume Independents 57% vs. 43% Democrats

………………………..Sanders% IND

Sanders…….. 55% 60% 70% 75% 80%

% DEM……… Sanders Vote share

45%………….. 51% 54% 59% 62% 65%

40%………….. 49% 51% 57% 60% 63%

35%………….. 46% 49% 55% 58% 61%

30%………….. 44% 47% 53% 56% 59%

25%………….. 42% 45% 51% 54% 56%

Clinton Sanders Margin TOTAL RECORDED 53.47% 46.53% -6.95% TRUE VOTE 48.34% 51.66% 3.32% CAUCUS Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Margin 36.1% 63.9% 36.1% 63.9% 27.8% IA 50.1% 49.9% 50.1% 49.9% -0.3% NV 52.7% 47.3% 52.7% 47.3% -5.3% CO 40.6% 59.4% 40.6% 59.4% 18.8% MN 38.4% 61.6% 38.4% 61.6% 23.3% KS 32.3% 67.7% 32.3% 67.7% 35.5% NE 42.9% 57.1% 42.9% 57.1% 14.3% ME 35.6% 64.4% 35.6% 64.4% 28.7% ID 22.0% 78.0% 22.0% 78.0% 56.0% UT 20.7% 79.3% 20.7% 79.3% 58.6% AK 18.4% 81.6% 18.4% 81.6% 63.3% HI 30.1% 69.9% 30.1% 69.9% 39.8% WA 27.1% 72.9% 27.1% 72.9% 45.7% WY 45.3% 54.7% 45.3% 54.7% 9.4% ND 28.5% 71.5% 28.5% 71.5% 43.0% EXIT POLL UNCTD ADJUST Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Margin Total 53.99% 46.01% 53.05% 46.95% -6.09% VT 13.0% 87.0% 12.6% 87.4% 74.9% NH 39.6% 60.4% 38.7% 61.3% 22.6% WI 37.0% 63.0% 36.1% 63.9% 27.8% NC 56.3% 43.7% 55.4% 44.6% -10.8% FL 64.0% 36.0% 63.1% 36.9% -26.1% SC 68.7% 31.3% 67.8% 32.2% -35.7% OH 51.9% 48.1% 51.0% 49.0% -1.9% MI 46.8% 53.2% 45.9% 54.1% 8.2% VA 62.4% 37.6% 61.6% 38.4% -23.1% MS 83.4% 16.6% 82.9% 17.1% -65.7% GA 65.7% 34.3% 64.9% 35.1% -29.7% TX 61.5% 38.5% 60.6% 39.4% -21.2% IL 48.8% 51.2% 47.9% 52.1% 4.2% IN 44.6% 55.4% 43.7% 56.3% 12.6% PA 54.7% 45.3% 53.8% 46.2% -7.5% NY 52.0% 48.0% 51.0% 49.0% -2.1% MA 46.7% 53.3% 45.8% 54.2% 8.4% CT 51.6% 48.4% 50.7% 49.3% -1.4% AZ 37.0% 63.0% 36.1% 63.9% 27.8% AL 73.2% 26.8% 72.4% 27.6% -44.8% TN 63.2% 36.8% 62.3% 37.7% -24.6% AR 66.0% 34.0% 65.2% 34.8% -30.3% MD 65.6% 34.4% 64.8% 35.2% -29.5% MO 48.1% 51.9% 47.2% 52.8% 5.7% OK 47.8% 52.2% 46.8% 53.2% 6.3% WV 39.9% 60.1% 39.0% 61.0% 22.0% NO EXIT POLL UNCTD / FLIPPED ADJUST Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Margin Total 54.96% 45.04% 45.77% 54.23% 8.45% CA 54.22% 45.78% 44.62% 55.38% 10.76% KY 50.2% 49.8% 41.5% 58.5% 16.9% MT 46.6% 53.4% 38.8% 61.2% 22.5% NJ 63.2% 36.8% 51.5% 48.5% -3.1% NM 51.5% 48.5% 42.6% 57.4% 14.9% SD 51.0% 49.0% 42.2% 57.8% 15.7% LA 75.4% 24.6% 61.0% 39.0% -22.0% DE 60.4% 39.6% 49.4% 50.6% 1.2% RI 44.1% 55.9% 36.8% 63.2% 26.4% OR 43.3% 56.7% 43.3% 56.7% 13.3% DC 79.5% 20.5% 64.2% 35.8% -28.4%

Based on the following table of 25 Democratic primary exit polls (assuming confirmation that the WI and CT polls exceeded the MoE), the probability P that at least 12 would exceed the MoE is

P= 2.30E-13 or 1 in 4.3 trillion.

P= 1-binomdist (11,25,0.025,true)