I’m actually a really big supporter of the Disney Springs expansion. You’ll find many critics, especially online, but in general I like what they’ve done with the former Downtown Disney. That said, they’ve expanded so much, and added so many merchants, that SOME of them are bound to fail. Today’s column is all about speculation of which one will be first.

Let’s begin by remembering that Disney Springs has come a LONG way. It basically doubled in size in terms of shops and restaurants, and has gone from all-surface parking to two functional parking garages, with a third one on the way. This is major progress. And the new sections look pretty gorgeous.

Recently, Disney announced that their first-ever drone show – think lights moving across the sky in very precise formations, to make recognizable shapes – was coming to Disney Springs for the holidays. This made some folks sad, as they had hoped Disney Springs was going to inherit the Osborne Lights (it could still happen, of course). Staying on the positive side, we could point out that the drone show effectively represents Disney doubling down: Disney Springs WILL be a success, and they are seeing to it with this unique offering.

The crowds are already there, at least when I’m able to visit on weekends. Both daytime and nighttime have visibly large herds of people moving through the sidewalk, and the parking structures are reasonably full. All that looks good. The establishments must be doing well, right?

Well, maybe not. A couple of weeks ago, Aristocrepes quietly altered its menu to sell smaller snacks and drinks, and officially switched to selling crepes only seasonally. Are the crowds not here after all? Or are there crowds at Disney Springs, but they aren’t buying crepes?

It must be noted this kiosk opposite the Rainforest Cafe volcano is in a pretty horrible spot, without the foot traffic of other parts of Disney Springs. While this menu alteration isn’t a “closure” exactly, it does indicate that not all is well in financial-statement-land, and that represents something of a chink in the armor of the Disney Springs success story. The ultra-expensive steaks at STK have also led to a retooling of the menu there.

As noted at the outset, even when things go well, by sheer virtue of the way things work, SOMEONE is going to go out of business at Disney Springs eventually. It happened all the time at the older Downtown Disney, of course, and it’s just the way things go.

Renting a retail space from Disney has always been expensive, and no doubt that goes double for new property like the expansion areas of Disney Springs. Disney doesn’t disclose exact rental costs, but I’m starting to wonder if this is the sticking point with the eventual DisneyQuest replacement. For a while, the story was that NBA was going to open an experience here (after having vacated the spot at CityWalk where the chocolate restaurant now sells out daily). In anticipation of this, Disney stopped including DisneyQuest in the premium annual pass (once you renewed) because presumably the attraction wouldn’t last the entire year, and they didn’t want false advertising on their hands. In a somewhat abrupt reversal, DisneyQuest is now expected to stay open for a while (maybe all of 2017?) so I’m wondering if the deal with NBA has fallen through. Surely the rental costs are part of the negotiations, and they have to be steep. Disney probably doesn’t make much money on the aging and in some ways embarrassing DisneyQuest, so you could see why they would want steady, safe income from a rental instead.

That is, until a renter can’t make the payments and has to leave. So here, finally, we come to the question of who will be the first to go. I don’t think it will be a restaurant. Pretty much all of them have people sitting in the tables all the time. I can’t speak to how much they are paying, but the sheer volume suggests it’s enough.

I think it will be a specialty shop. There’s a silver store that doesn’t seem to attract much interest every time I go by. And when I do see folks in Uno de 50, they are looking around but leaving without buying anything.

The same could be said for Johnston and Murphy, which sells men’s clothes. Are people buying expensive dress shoes here?

Following that train of thought, we could perhaps zero in on the Art of Shaving, an early favorite of mine to be “the first” to go. Lots of things in here are expensive, and they don’t strike me as the sorts of things one buys on vacation anyway.

For all that, though, my ultimate guess is going to be Erwin Pearl. Sitting on a piece of real estate reclaimed from the Pleasure Island days, this shop had a full rebuild, and everything is attractively presented. But it doesn’t seem to attract many folks inside, and it’s full of things I don’t see many people buying on vacation (maybe the truly wealthy crowd does?) – and it has those same high prices without a lot of things in the low-end market.

Your turn! What do you think will the first to close for good at the new sections of Disney Springs?

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