The government just upped the Deepwater Horizon leak estimate to 60,000 barrels per day:

Secretary Chu, Secretary Salazar, and Dr. McNutt convened a group of federal and independent scientists on Monday to discuss new analyses and data points obtained over the weekend to produce updated flow rate estimates. Working together, U.S. government and independent scientists estimate that the most likely flow rate of oil today is between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels per day. The improved estimate is based on more and better data that is now available and that helps increase the scientific confidence in the accuracy of the estimate.

Just last week the official estimate was 20,000 to 40,000 barrels per day; up from BP's long-standing estimate of 5,000 barrels per day; up from the original estimate of 1,000 barrels per day. At this point Cassandras like Matthew Simmons are starting to look a lot more credible.