Written by Timothy Lewis (@MrTeeLew) — November 23rd, 2017

In this weekly segment, I apply numbers to context in an effort to uncover plausible trajectories in the wild world of fantasy football. Last week’s segment had me covering Tevin Coleman, Adam Thielen vs Stefon Diggs, the evolution of the Patriots’ backfield, Le’Veon Bell and Marcus Mariota. Welcome to Trends and Takeaways Week 12. Happy Thanksgiving!

Versatility wins for Devontae Booker

C.J. Anderson concluding he’s the 2nd favorite child (via Jeffrey Beall, wikimedia commons)

Earlier this season, I wrote about the travesty that is the Broncos backfield. That’s back when they were a competent football team. Therefore, take this “win” with a grain of salt. With all disclaimers out of the way, Devontae Booker has long been the common sense choice to take over the backfield as the only option with a combination of youth, rushing prowess and pass-catching ability. Yes, I’m aware the sophomore back averaged just 3.5 yards per carry last season, much of which was accrued in a starting role filling in for an injured C.J. Anderson. However, the Broncos switch from Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme to a power blocking scheme has been speculated to be a better fit for Booker. While that has yet to materialize with Booker averaging just 3.8 yards per carry to Anderson’s 4.1, there’s been a far more lopsided difference in their respective usage as receiving options. Despite playing 3 less games than Anderson, Booker has 3 more catches, out-gaining his backfield mate by 71 receiving yards. This dimension of his game has corresponded with an increased workload, stealing opportunities from his one-dimensional competition. Over the past 3 weeks, the former 4th round pick’s snap share has gone from 34% to 37% to 59%. There is one hiccup to the ascension: It’s unclear how running back usage will be divided after the firing of offensive coordinator Mike McCoy.

Corey Coleman, welcome to the party

Via Tucci

We’ve all been waiting for Corey Coleman, and while the Browns don’t have much to be excited about, we certainly do. The former first round pick is a 4.4 speedster with terrific explosiveness and a surprising catch radius for his 5’11” frame. In limited playing time, the results have been extremely promising. Coleman has averaged a stellar 8 targets per game through 3 contests in 2017. His ability to gain separation has distinguished him from the cesspool of mediocrity that is the rest of the Browns’ receiving corps. The 23.3% target share is close to what one would expect from a WR1 and his usage could climb as he builds chemistry with Deshone Kizer. Upon return, Coleman gave reason for excitement, posting 6 catches for 80 yards on 11 targets against what is possibly the league’s most ferocious defense. Inevitably, the question arises: WHAT ABOUT JOSH GORDON? Well, what about him? We’ll see if he can still play. If so, it could only open the field more for the second year receiver, who will demand volume regardless of competition, thanks to a Browns team that finds itself down on the scoreboard early and often.

Samaje Perine: Last man standing

Chris Thompson is broken. Rob Kelley is awful and broken. Washington now has no choice but to turn to their rookie back. Previously, I suggested it was possible for the Oklahoma product to rise to the top in a similar fashion to Jordan Howard supplanting Jeremy Langford. While that most certainly hasn’t been the case, he looked every part of bludgeoning beast this past Sunday against the Saints, totalling 117 yards on 23 carries. Despite earlier struggles, the rookie may be finding his footing. A ridiculously strong player (30 reps of 225 lbs at the combine), Perine has excellent balance and will make defenders pay upon entering the second level. Taking a back seat to controversial figure and collegiate star, Joe Mixon, Samaje averaged a whopping 6 yards per carry for the Sooners. This hasn’t quite translated to NFL production, as he’s managed just 3.7 YPC. Additionally, he’s found little work in the passing game despite reeling in 7 of 8 targets. While Perine isn’t a particularly explosive runner, his meat-and-potatoes physicality will wear down defenses and make him an enticing red zone option. Volume in the absence of reasonable competition should give the first year back a safe RB2 floor.

A turkey because Thanksgiving > these guys

Can I say neither? Just as Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, and DeVante Parker play musical chairs for fantasy value any given week, it appears Williams and Drake are largely the same. Both profile as similar athletes offering above-average acceleration, speed, and burst. However, they have not seen similar efficiency in production. While sample size is quite limited, Drake has vastly out-produced Williams on a per carry basis (5.5 to 3.8 yards). Before the departure of Jay Ajayi, Williams typically functioned as the designated receiving back, and despite having only 5 more receptions than Drake on the season, he’s managed 79 more yards. With Ajayi gone, Williams has been pinned as the starter. In that period, he and Drake have traded successful outings. Because he’s been the more effective ball carrier, one would think Kenyan Drake should be the starter. However, Adam Gase has yet to arrive at this conclusion. Considering neither has seen more than 10 touches in a game, it’s doubtful a meaningful verdict will be reached any time soon. Both backs are relatively average talents that should be regarded as no more than desperation plays.

Make some noise for DeAndre Hopkins

HOW!? via thegameswelove (Giphy)

Seriously. I have a hard time recalling such an awesome season receiving so little acclaim. Hopkins is back to proving he can succeed with literally anyone under center not named Brock Osweiler. In PPR the Texans’ stud is 2nd in fantasy points. In standard leagues he ranks 1st. So far Hopkins leads all receivers in touchdowns (9), targets (117), and target share (35.3%), while ranking 3rd in receiving yards (87.9 p/g). Another outrageous fact? DeAndre Hopkins has only 3 games with less than 10 targets. It’s amazing how quickly we wrote off one of the league’s supreme talents after one season tethered a noodle-armed can of off-brand dog food. A previous criticism of the star receiver was his abysmal yards after the catch. Taking note, Hopkins has broken into the top 30 — an impressive accomplishment considering his catches are commonly of the contested variety. Why else has Hopkins been great? He’s 3rd in red zone and end zone target share, meaning he gets targeted where it matters most. In summary, the man cannot be stopped. His combination of volume, high leverage usage and undeniable talent simply needed to be recognized. This week will be a true challenge and potential testament to the Clemson product’s greatness, as he draws one of the league’s toughest matchups in CB Jimmy Smith of the Baltimore Ravens.