Actually, that characterization doesn't even go far enough. What seems clear at this point is that the FBI -- representing the US Government and as an agency of the Department of Justice -- targeted Papadopoulos and attempted to manipulate him into appearing to be a vehicle for Russian influence in the Trump campaign. The FBI had no reason to believe that Papadopoulos had any connections to Russian officials before they targeted him. The fact is, Papadopoulos's academic background and previous experience was in what could be broadly termed "Eastern Mediterranean" politics -- Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Israel. Moreover, in his published writings he actually evinced a degree of hostility to Russian influence in that region.

Dan Bongino recently conducted a fascinating interview with George Papadopoulos. The most convenient way to digest the interview is at Jeff Carlson's blog , which has a link to the interview on Bongino's radio show as well as a full transcript of the interview. What emerges from the interview is, in my view, convincing evidence that Papadopoulos was, in Chuck Ross's words , the target of an "FBI sting."

When the FBI's attempt at framing Papadopoulos in this manner predictably fell flat, Papadopoulos was indicted on trumped up "false statements to the FBI" charges stemming from a harmless misstatement -- not a lie.

The entire interview is well worth listening to -- to capture Papadopoulos' personality -- and also worth reading closely for the details that emerge. Chuck Ross's digest is also useful as a summary. Bongino's tone is remarkable. He's well prepared for the interview and, as he goes into the details of how Papadopoulos was groomed to be a fall guy in the FBI's war against Trump, his tone is incredulous to the point of hilarity at times -- the FBI's setup is that transparent. Bongino has difficulty throughout in restraining himself from exclaiming at Papadopoulos' only too obvious naivete. For his part, Papadopoulos is naturally reluctant to portray himself as a complete dupe, but even he at a certain point ends up quoting his wife, who exclaimed to him:

"What on earth are you pleading guilty for, when this guy [Mifsud] is obviously setting you up?"

Rather than attempt an exhaustive analysis of the many intriguing threads of information that can be found in the interview, what I'd like to focus on are two particular themes in Papadopoulos's narrative:

1) That he was the subject of a FISA, and

2) that his conversations with FBI intelligence assets such as Halper, Downer, and Mifsud were "recorded."

Let's take Papadopoulos's FISA assertion first. There are two striking aspects to the FISA assertion. The first is Papadopoulos's claim that the FISA had nothing to do with the Russia Hoax -- recall that Papadopoulos had no Russian connections except those that were manufactured by FBI and British intelligence operatives -- but instead had to do with his undoubted contacts with Israel. The second aspect is that Papadopoulos claims to have been informed about this FISA by MSM sources. Here's what Papadopoulos said in the interview:

Bongino: Do you think there was a FISA warrant on you? Papadopoulos: I do. I think there was a FISA warrant on me and probably … I think the FISA had to do with my work in the energy business – and in Israel in particular. ... I had these contacts – and just to be frank – when the FBI came to my house in January for the first time, they were questioning me about my ties to Israel. And then all of a sudden, when we go into all these other issues – about hacked emails, Russia, there’s a lot more to my story than most people could possibly even imagine. Bongino: You may have been on the radar prior [to Trump’s foreign policy team announcement]. Papadopoulos: That’s absolutely right. I was on the target of some intelligence group – and they definitely knew who I was. And just to make it clear to everyone listening, when I met with Mifsud, when I met with Alexander Downer, and when I met with Stefan Halper, do you know what these people all had in common? They all wanted to talk about my business in the Middle East. And what I was doing regarding advising American Oil companies, etc, etc. It’s public knowledge now that Stefan Halper, himself, paid me $3,000 to write a report about my expertise in the energy business. So, obviously, I had a target on me for that. ... And that’s why I think there was a FISA. Recent information I’ve understood is leading me to believe that even more so. Bongino: If there’s another FISA out there on you, this would be earth-shattering information. Papadopoulos: Well, let me make something even more clear that supports my contention of this FISA allegation I’m making. In April of 2017, before everyone probably listening to your show even heard the name Papadopoulos. This is April of 2017, before I was arrested, I had, let’s say, two representatives from, one, the most powerful newspaper in our country and another representative from the largest network tv channel in our country reach out to me on back-to-back days – a couple days after Jim Wolf was leaking information to Ali Watkins of the New York Times about a FISA. They both reached out to me in April of 2017 and told me we have information that you had a FISA on you. (snip) When they told me this, I laughed it off. I hadn’t been arrested. I hadn’t been embroiled in what I guess I’m in now. So, I was wondering to myself, how could I have a FISA on me when I don’t know any Russians. I don’t know any Russian government officials. What could that possibly be. After that, that’s when this weird guy gives me the $10,000 – a lot of strange things happen after I was told that.

On the face of it, Papadopoulos's assertions regarding FBI interest in his Israeli connections make perfect sense, but may not bear the interpretation that Papadopoulos is offering. Here's why. The shadowy Israeli, Charles Tawil -- who gave Papadopoulos $10K to take back to the US and be met at the airport by FBI agents -- is known from Wikileaks to be a US intelligence asset. As a dual Israeli-US citizen, it's a good bet that Israeli intelligence was aware of Tawil's relationship with the US. What this looks like, therefore, is a joint operation -- an Israeli assist to the FBI in an operation in which the Israelis probably had little interest beyond maintaining good relations with their US counterparts. Overall, it looks like a classic attempt to get a target jammed up in order to coerce him into serving as an asset. Of course, that doesn't mean that the FBI didn't have a FISA on Papadopoulos. As we've already noted, unlike Carter Page, Papadopoulos had no Russian connections to hang a Russia Hoax FISA on, but it's entirely possible that his contacts in the murky politics of the Levant could have been leveraged to obtain a FISA warrant.

Obviously, these are areas that will simply remain in the realm of speculation for the indefinite future, but one thing seems abundantly clear: the various FBI assets who contacted Papadopoulos may have begun by talking him up regarding his Middle East interests, but they all attempted to shift his focus to Russia and the US election -- despite his lack of connections in that regard. As far as the election and the Trump campaign went, Papadopoulos would, therefore, have been more of a target of opportunity for the FBI. True, he had no Russian connections, but on the other hand he had been taken on by the Trump campaign, he was already in contact with FBI assets, and he was, above all, very naive.

In that light, consider Papadopoulos' story about being contacted by two major media sources who told him that there was a FISA on him. We can pose two related questions, assuming for our purposes that there actually was a FISA on Papadopoulos. First, would the FBI have hinted to major media contacts that there was a FISA on Papadopoulos? From all we've seen in the Russia Hoax thus far, the answer can only be: unequivocally, yes. However, if the FISA was not actually related to anything to do with Russia, would the FBI have felt obliged to point that out to their media contacts? I think the question answers itself. The Russia Hoax narrative was out there, Papadopoulos had been sucked into making various suggestions about contacting Russian officials, and there you have it. Everyone would naturally assume that the FISA was Russia-related -- and that would have been precisely what the FBI wanted to accomplish with their leak.

But what about Papadopoulos's repeated assertions that he believes his contacts with the various operatives -- Halper, Mifsud, Downer -- were all recorded? How does that fit in?

First of all we need to be clear that, assuming that there were indeed recordings made of these contacts with Papadopoulos, that has nothing to do with FISA. Those types of recordings are known as "consensual monitoring," meaning that one of the parties -- not the target -- consented to the recording. What is presupposed is that some sort of investigation has already been initiated. It could be either a Preliminary Investigation or a Full Investigation, but there has to be an open investigation.

I am personally inclined to believe that such recordings did take place. I am further inclined to believe that, if there was already an open investigation that had been used to obtain a FISA on Papadopoulos regarding his Middle East ventures, then the consensual monitoring of his contacts abroad with FBI assets would have been piggybacked off the already opened investigation. This would certainly explain the regular trips that top level FBI Counterintelligence officials -- Bill Priestap and Peter Strzok -- were making to London at the same time that Papadopoulos was being groomed by FBI assets there.

Now, here I think we've finally arrived at the point where we can understand what a threat Papadopoulos may pose to the entire Russian Hoax: FBI, DoJ, and Team Mueller at the Special Counsel office. To understand this it's necessary to recall the fundamental structuring of FBI investigations, which I laid out in A Guide To Spygate, Informants, FISA. The important thing to keep in mind is simply this: When we speak about consensual monitoring or about FISA, we're really speaking about investigative techniques. Many of the articles that are written about the Russia Hoax tend to get involved in the investigative techniques and lose sight of the fact that any use of these techniques presupposes the existence of an investigation -- Preliminary or Full -- that has been previously authorized based on very specific criteria.

No doubt a fraud was perpetrated on the FISA Court in the case of the Carter Page FISA, but that never could have happened unless a previous fraud had already been perpetrated: the opening of a Full Investigation on Carter Page which was simply baseless. That first fraud is the one that will, in my opinion, prove to be fundamental to any prosecution in the Russia Hoax. The FISA fraud -- the misuse of a technique -- might be argued away on a number of grounds: bad judgment, officials got carried away by the danger of Russian "meddling," etc. It will be much harder to argue away the actual opening of a Full Investigation on Carter Page.

And it will be much harder to argue all that away if it can be shown that the Carter Page case was part of a larger conspiracy. That's where the framing of George Papadopoulos comes in. The FISA on Papadopoulos (again, we assume ...) may or may not have been warranted. We have no way of being sure of that, from our distance. However, when viewed in connection with the baseless investigation of Carter Page, the efforts by the FBI, through their assets, to manipulate Papadopoulos into playing a role for which he had no background, but which would lend at least the appearance of verisimilitude to the whole Russia Hoax narrative, in my opinion offers powerful evidence that a broader criminal conspiracy was at work. The goal of that conspiracy -- involving at a minimum the FBI and the DoJ -- was to direct through fraudulent means, misusing the investigative powers of the Federal Government, the results of a US Presidential Election.

This is the field of battle that will, I hope, open up after the Midterm Elections.

In closing, I can't urge strongly enough the importance of reading and pondering over the transcript of the Papadopoulos interview. As further reference I've appended a series of tweets that Papadopoulos wrote on the days preceding and following that interview, but they don't substitute for the whole interview.

George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 The entire “Russia collusion” investigation began because Joseph Mifsud (“the professor”) was a supposed Russian agent who told me that the Russians have Clinton’s emails. Now, Mifsud’s lawyer says he was working for Comey’s FBI to fabricate collusion and sabotage Trump. Truth! 1:46 PM - Oct 31, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 The entrapment below is probably just one of only a dozen reasons Comey was fired and his deputies are currently either under investigation, demoted or fired themselves. Director Wray looks like a true leader and a man of honor. This would have never happened under his watch. 2:24 PM - Oct 31, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 Hons: @RepMarkMeadows and @RepRatcliffe I am more than happy to deliver the $10,000 in cash I received, as part of what I believe was a sting operation to frame me in summer 2017,to your committee to examine for marked bills. This is in the interest of me being fully transparent. 2:55 PM - Oct 31, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 Hons: @RepRatcliffe and @RepMarkMeadows the $10,000 has been safety stored away after the likely asset trying to set me up did not want to take their money back after I told them to retrieve it. Am sure we can get the bills to the committee for examination to see who was behindit 4:42 PM - Oct 31, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 The reason my wife has been harassed for a year was because she has known ALL ALONG that Mifsud was connected to the socialists in Europe, Clinton’s and western intelligence circles. Elements of the government have been trying to silence her since summer 2017. Gonna keep fighting 7:08 PM - Oct 31, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 When FISA is unredacted after the midterms, a whole new chapter in this saga is about to open. Look out for key characters: Alexander Downer, GCHQ, And a FISA on me being revealed. 10:09 PM - Oct 31, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 My biggest regret is not having spoken up even sooner. Am making sure I get as much of the truth out there before the midterms. Everything I have stated for the last two months is backed by incontrovertible evidence. Nothing can be debunked. 8:03 AM - Nov 1, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 If my sources were correct in April 2017, largest channel on network tv and one of the two most powerful newspapers in America, and I had a FISA on me; if that country is named, it will rock one of the most important alliances the US has because of Obama DOJ misconduct. No Russia 8:29 AM - Nov 1, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 I was a businessman in Israel and Cyprus. Nothing to do with Russia. If there was a FISA on me as very credible sources told me in April 2017, I was being spied on for my work in that part of the world. That is the real scandal. 9:16 AM - Nov 1, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 Make sure you get out and vote, America. Our future depends on it. Congress needs to remain red to uncover more and more of the corruption of the Obama administration. FISA abuse will never come out if the republicans lose the house. #VoteRedSaveAmerica2018 6:22 PM - Nov 1, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 I was patient zero of “Russia gate”, now this patient is telling you all that “spygate” is more real than ever, and has always been the real narrative. Apologies for not being able to scream it out loud months before. Vote red. 7:16 PM - Nov 1, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 I implore everyone to listen to my interview with @dbongino last night. It’s important to clarify exactly what was happening in 2016 and after, how we found ourselves in this position, and why it’s imperative we all vote RED next week. 2:00 PM - Nov 3, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 My offer still stands for a public testimony on the hill. 8:32 PM - Nov 3, 2018 George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19 If the $10,000 is traced to the Obama DOJ/administration, then we have a massive can of worms that just opened. I will make sure congress has the opportunity to review for marked bills and investigate who authorized an entrapment operation against an American citizen. 12:04 AM - Nov 4, 2018

Image credit: Marco Verch