Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) faces an existential crisis in Uttar Pradesh. Formed on the strength of the Scheduled Castes population, which is a formidable 21 per cent in the state, the BSP has witnessed a serious erosion in its support base over the last five years. The situation is so grim that it has had to extend a hand of friendship to its arch rival, the Samajwadi Party, in order to remain relevant.

All the same, the BSP chief sees light at the end of the tunnel as a result of some recent developments. Atrocities against members of the Scheduled Castes in states ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party or by people associated with with pro-Right groups, have resulted in a narrative that positions the Modi government as being "anti-Dalit".

In Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, the rise of Scheduled Castes leader Jignesh Mevani and his decision to align with the Congress in the wake of the Una flogging incident fortified the anti-BJP campaign, which in turn significantly reduced the BJP’s victory margin in the 2017 state election as compared to the 2012 result.

In Uttar Pradesh, Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad "Ravan" has stirred the pot against the Modi regime, and is expected to make things difficult for the BJP (and by extension easy for Mayawati), especially in the state’s western region.

Facing ignominy: BSP supremo Mayawati. [Credit: PTI file photo]

Mayawati hopes to exploit the growing sentiment. She tried a limited experiment in the state by backing the Samajwadi Party in the Lok Sabha by-elections in Phulpur and Gorakhpur recently, and succeeded. The SP candidates snatched both the seats from the BJP — the defeat in the latter was especially embarrassing for the BJP as the constituency had been held by chief minister Yogi Adityanath. The results showed that a coming together of Yadav and Scheduled Caste votes is not an impossibility and can be again attempted in 2019. In the upcoming Kairana Lok Sabha and Noorpur Assembly by-polls as well, the BSP has not fielded any candidate in order to prevent split of votes. By-polls to both seats will be held on May 28.

That said, it cannot be denied that Mayawati made serious mistakes in the past 10 years, and they seem to be catching up with her. The first was the over-dependence on her core vote-bank. In the beginning, it made sense. The BSP was created on the support of what is now generally referred to as "Dalits". But even when the BSP swept the Scheduled Caste votes in elections through the 1990s and early 2000s, riding on Mayawati’s "Dalit ki beti" appeal, the party could not touch the magic figure to form a government on its own strength. She had to take support from the Samajwadi Party and the BJP at various times.

It was only in the run-up to the 2007 Assembly poll that Mayawati reached out to the upper castes for support. This was an opportune time for her to make the pitch because the upper castes — the Brahmins and the Kshatriyas especially — were upset over being short-changed by Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. She then stitched a rainbow of the upper castes and the Scheduled Castes and comfortably won a majority on her own.

Here came the second blunder. Having discarded the earlier offensive slogan of "Tilak, tarazu aur talwar, inko maro jootey chaar" in favour of a more inclusive "Haathi nahi Ganesh hai, Brahma, Vishnu, Ganesh hai", Mayawati should have strengthened the combine with genuine gestures. But within a year or so of her governance, she began to rethink on the need to retain the upper castes’ loyalty.

First, the so-called "bhaichara" panels — which were supposed to strengthen the low caste-upper caste coordination at the grassroots level — became inoperative, and later they were dissolved. Mayawati’s honeymoon with the upper castes had come to an end, and she returned to her “Manuvadi” abuse of her erstwhile supporters. The upper castes returned to the Samajwadi Party camp for the 2012 election and helped the party oust the BSP from power. There is little possibility of their migrating back to the BSP because they have found relief in the BJP.

It is possible that Mayawati’s decision to distance herself from the upper castes after she had secured their votes in 2007 was driven by the confusion prevailing among her Scheduled Caste constituents. While they were happy that their Behenji was in the driver’s seat finally without a co-driver breathing down her neck, they could not digest the prospect of working alongside the very people who had literally kept them at an arm’s distance.

Mayawati could not ignore the rumblings from within, and so she systematically began to cut down to size the upper caste leaders she had patronised in her new-found zeal at "social engineering".

In course of time, the Brahmin face in her party, Satish Chandra Mishra, was divested of organisational responsibilities and left with only duties of a legal nature. The axe also fell on certain Other Backward Class leaders who had come to her side, influenced by her "Sarvajan" appeal as opposed to the earlier "Bahujan" call.

So, Mayawati was back to square one: Her Scheduled Caste voters. But the third mistake had by then already been made — that of making them share the spoils of power with the upper castes without first effecting a seamless integration.

Can Mayawati make a rousing comeback or will the by-election success turn out to be a flash in the pan? It won’t be long before we know.

Also read: What made Mayawati join hands with Akhilesh Yadav