The breakneck end to the short sprint that is the AFLW season is amongst us, and like last year many teams remain in at least mathematical contention for the Grand Final. Instead of our normal power rankings, we will rank the teams on what we think their chances to make the Grand Final are.

1. Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are the strongest team in the competition according to the HPN Team Ratings, and should go into their (almost) preliminary final against the Demons as favourites.

Club Defensive Score Offensive Score Midfield Score Overall Rating vs League Average Western Bulldogs 104.9 130.7 105.3 113.6 Melbourne 79.7 95.3 146.8 107.3 GWS Giants 103.7 95.4 110.6 103.2 Collingwood 104.3 130.0 73.7 102.7 Brisbane Lions 99.3 87.2 120.4 102.3 Adelaide Crows 116.9 106.0 77.2 100.0 Fremantle 102.3 88.5 88.4 93.1 Carlton 88.8 66.9 77.6 77.8

A big part of the AFLW season is adapting to unfortunate circumstances, and the Dogs have done this better than anyone so far. Despite their loss last week the Dogs remain firmly in the box seat for a Grand Final berth, partly because they can lose and plausibly still qualify.

The Dogs also have star power at the top end of the list, with Emma Kearney backing up a stellar 2017 season with a somehow better 2018 campaign. Kearney has been the best player in the league this season, according to our PAV rankings.

Player Club PAVOff PAVDef PAVMid PAV Total Matches Emma Kearney WB 13.06 12.26 16.57 41.89 6 Daisy Pearce MELB 6.78 5.75 22.49 35.01 6 Chelsea Randall ADEL 7.44 18.01 6.71 32.17 6 Elise O'Dea MELB 8.99 6.62 16.53 32.14 6 Courtney Gum GWS 9.25 7.67 15.11 32.04 6 Brooke Lochland WB 23.08 1.63 6.10 30.80 6 Kate Lutkins BL 5.03 17.83 7.21 30.07 6 Dana Hooker FRE 9.81 8.12 12.00 29.94 6 Ellie Blackburn WB 11.54 7.19 11.16 29.89 6 Christina Bernardi COLL 19.27 3.91 4.49 27.67 6 Emma King COLL 12.85 4.89 7.78 25.52 6 Alicia Eva GWS 4.63 6.96 12.92 24.50 6 Caitlyn Edwards COLL 12.85 4.87 6.58 24.30 6 Ebony Marinoff ADEL 4.53 8.40 10.37 23.30 6 Karen Paxman MELB 4.10 5.96 11.93 21.99 6 Amanda Farrugia GWS 5.03 7.90 8.67 21.60 6 Moana Hope COLL 18.99 0.63 1.40 21.02 5 Brittany Gibson BL 7.45 3.16 10.39 21.00 6 Rhiannon Metcalfe ADEL 9.55 4.11 7.02 20.68 6 Sabrina Frederick-Traub BL 10.44 3.80 6.35 20.59 6 Chloe Molloy COLL 4.47 13.46 2.66 20.59 6 Kara Donnellan FRE 3.63 7.05 9.68 20.36 6 Jess Wuetschner BL 12.67 3.27 4.39 20.33 6 Tegan Cunningham MELB 14.71 1.27 4.35 20.33 6 Ruth Wallace ADEL 13.64 2.23 4.38 20.25 6 Jessica Dal Pos GWS 5.03 5.79 9.33 20.14 6 Jasmine Garner COLL 9.91 5.85 4.36 20.12 6 Hayley Miller FRE 5.76 4.15 9.76 19.66 6 Bonnie Toogood WB 12.30 4.05 3.31 19.66 6 Kate Hore MELB 10.57 2.64 6.42 19.62 6 Aasta O'Connor WB 7.29 5.16 7.09 19.55 6 Richelle Cranston MELB 9.27 0.73 9.46 19.46 6 Libby Birch WB 0.22 17.61 1.60 19.43 6 Jamie Stanton BL 3.91 6.57 8.86 19.34 6 Kirsty Lamb WB 4.79 4.45 10.06 19.30 6 Erin Phillips ADEL 14.88 1.06 3.33 19.27 4 Alexandra Anderson BL 3.35 7.03 8.70 19.09 6 Phoebe McWilliams GWS 13.53 2.81 2.74 19.08 6 Shelley Scott MELB 8.83 1.46 8.50 18.79 6 Sarah Allan ADEL 1.18 15.30 1.72 18.19 6 Emily Bates BL 1.86 6.79 9.45 18.10 6 Jenna Bruton WB 7.40 4.97 5.34 17.70 6 Tahlia Randall BL 6.76 -0.09 10.99 17.66 6 Stephanie Chiocci COLL 6.98 4.58 6.08 17.65 5 Ashlee Atkins FRE 9.55 2.57 5.22 17.34 6 Maddison Gay CARL 5.38 2.99 8.80 17.17 6 Ebony Antonio FRE 4.91 10.01 2.16 17.08 6 Jacinda Barclay GWS 10.86 2.35 3.57 16.78 6 Britt Tully GWS 3.62 2.88 10.27 16.77 6 Lisa Webb FRE 5.55 5.02 6.07 16.63 5 Amelia Barden COLL 8.66 2.84 5.10 16.60 6 Lara Filocamo FRE 4.05 6.06 6.24 16.35 6 Erin McKinnon GWS 8.30 0.82 7.20 16.32 6 Angelica Gogos WB 3.05 2.30 10.64 15.99 6 Rebecca Beeson GWS 5.83 5.53 4.62 15.98 6 Breann Moody CARL 5.73 3.52 6.61 15.86 6 Angela Foley ADEL 2.48 10.28 3.09 15.85 5 Hannah Scott WB 2.39 9.98 3.38 15.76 6 Tayla Harris CARL 8.67 1.88 5.07 15.61 5 Gabby O'Sullivan FRE 7.04 2.25 6.22 15.52 6 Nicola Barr GWS 2.41 8.72 4.12 15.25 6 Sarah Hosking CARL 3.59 4.19 7.26 15.04 6 Emma Zielke BL 2.61 3.41 8.96 14.97 6 Darcy Vescio CARL 9.37 2.59 3.01 14.97 6 Jess Duffin COLL 4.47 8.45 1.99 14.91 5 Cora Staunton GWS 9.45 1.27 4.07 14.80 6 Monique Conti WB 6.75 3.03 5.02 14.79 6 Jaimee Lambert COLL 4.19 4.78 5.78 14.75 6 Kaitlyn Ashmore BL 7.45 1.95 4.89 14.29 6 Jenna McCormick ADEL 10.67 1.13 2.20 13.99 5 Ashleigh Guest MELB 1.58 6.62 5.67 13.86 6 Lauren Pearce MELB 5.84 0.95 7.04 13.82 5 Elle Bennetts GWS 4.02 3.26 6.53 13.81 6 Justine Mules ADEL 3.22 4.69 5.64 13.56 6 Melissa Kuys COLL 8.10 2.66 2.73 13.49 6 Aliesha Newman MELB 5.68 1.39 6.37 13.44 6 Aisling Utri WB 6.75 4.11 2.47 13.33 5 Alison Downie CARL 4.43 5.84 2.72 13.00 6 Katherine Smith MELB 0.63 5.49 6.79 12.91 6 Breanna Koenen BL 1.86 7.53 3.42 12.81 6 Leah Kaslar BL 0.98 9.13 2.27 12.38 6 Stephanie Cain FRE 3.63 4.73 4.01 12.36 6 Nat Exon BL 4.71 3.03 4.48 12.22 5 Courtney Cramey ADEL 3.97 5.18 3.03 12.17 3 Eloise Jones ADEL 5.71 2.69 3.77 12.16 6 Katie Loynes CARL 4.58 2.71 4.78 12.07 5 Belinda Smith FRE 1.07 7.73 3.23 12.03 5 Dayna Cox ADEL 1.74 8.00 2.22 11.96 5 Brittany Bonnici COLL 1.96 5.95 4.05 11.95 6 Emma Swanson GWS 1.81 6.17 3.81 11.79 5 Nicole Callinan WB 3.92 4.06 3.58 11.56 6 Shannon Campbell BL 1.12 7.53 2.78 11.43 5 Melissa Hickey MELB 1.89 3.65 5.82 11.36 6 Gabriella Pound CARL 1.20 8.00 2.02 11.22 6 Kate McCarthy BL 4.10 1.26 5.78 11.14 6 Evangeline Gooch FRE 1.28 8.56 1.29 11.13 6 Kerryn Harrington CARL 1.59 5.63 3.76 10.99 6 Phoebe Monahan GWS 0.00 8.72 2.18 10.90 5 Naomi Ferres WB 2.18 4.27 4.37 10.82 6 Cassie Davidson FRE 0.43 8.29 2.01 10.73 6 Shae Audley CARL 2.39 1.88 6.23 10.50 6 Melissa Caulfield FRE 3.84 3.90 2.75 10.50 6 Sharni Webb BL 3.77 1.08 5.59 10.45 6 Katie Brennan WB 8.16 0.69 1.54 10.39 3 Nicola Stevens CARL 0.60 7.58 2.09 10.27 6 Alicia Janz FRE 4.00 1.44 4.65 10.08 6 Danielle Hardiman CARL 0.80 8.32 0.96 10.08 5 Ellie Brush GWS 1.21 6.63 2.23 10.07 6 Sarah Perkins ADEL 7.13 0.51 2.42 10.06 6 Cecilia McIntosh COLL 2.79 4.25 2.99 10.03 6 Tiarna Ernst WB 1.69 5.63 2.69 10.01 6 Laura Duryea MELB -0.32 9.65 0.60 9.94 4 Meg Downie MELB 0.63 5.91 3.39 9.93 5 Tilly Lucas-Rodd CARL 0.80 6.78 2.25 9.82 5 Amy Lavell FRE 7.89 0.85 1.06 9.80 6 Jordan Zanchetta BL 1.86 2.91 4.91 9.68 5 Jessica Sedunary ADEL 4.47 1.29 3.74 9.49 6 Meg Hutchins COLL 6.91 0.69 1.73 9.33 4 Tanya Hetherington GWS -0.60 9.76 0.15 9.31 6 Emma Grant COLL 1.96 4.40 2.89 9.25 6 Nicole Hildebrand BL 0.75 6.16 2.34 9.24 5 Deni Varnhagen ADEL -0.25 4.95 4.45 9.15 6 Lily Mithen MELB 1.74 1.79 5.60 9.12 6 Jess Hosking CARL 2.39 3.07 3.55 9.01 5 Stevie-Lee Thompson ADEL 0.99 6.14 1.88 9.01 6 Pepa Randall GWS 1.01 5.74 2.18 8.92 6 Marijana Rajcic ADEL 2.98 3.80 2.11 8.88 4 Alex Williams FRE 0.21 7.51 0.66 8.39 6 Katherine Gillespie-Jones CARL 1.49 5.55 1.26 8.30 5 Ashley Sharp FRE 3.63 2.59 2.00 8.22 4 Lauren Tesoriero COLL 2.51 2.08 3.39 7.99 5 Sophie Li CARL 1.20 3.07 3.41 7.67 6 Bianca Jakobsson MELB 0.32 4.62 2.61 7.54 5 Jasmyn Hewett ADEL 2.60 3.49 1.37 7.46 6 Lauren Spark WB 0.49 5.98 0.85 7.33 6 Aimee Schmidt GWS 5.03 0.43 1.72 7.18 5 Georgia Gee CARL 3.59 1.12 2.45 7.16 5 Lauren Brazzale CARL 2.59 1.06 3.45 7.11 4 Erin Hoare MELB 2.76 -0.19 4.51 7.09 4 Renee Tomkins GWS 1.36 3.64 2.00 7.00 3 Jasmine Grierson MELB 1.89 2.78 2.30 6.97 5 Arianna Clarke BL 0.37 5.06 1.53 6.96 6 Hayley Wildes WB 1.96 2.66 2.20 6.82 5 Iilish Ross COLL -0.56 6.77 0.56 6.78 5 Rheanne Lugg ADEL 0.99 3.77 1.90 6.67 5 Harriet Cordner MELB 1.22 1.82 3.53 6.57 3 Sarah D'Arcy COLL 3.35 1.21 1.88 6.44 4 Brianna Davey CARL 0.80 3.89 1.36 6.05 2 Stacey Barr FRE 3.84 0.92 1.28 6.04 5 Sophie Conway BL 4.29 -0.22 1.95 6.01 4 Leah Mascall FRE 1.07 2.81 1.97 5.85 6 Kirsten McLeod WB 3.70 0.75 1.18 5.63 3 Catherine Phillips MELB 0.16 1.98 3.50 5.63 6 Emma Humphries MELB 1.58 1.88 2.15 5.61 3 Maddy Collier GWS 1.61 1.96 1.67 5.24 3 Lauren Arnell CARL 2.99 0.54 1.57 5.10 3 Isabel Huntington WB 4.63 -0.38 0.62 4.86 2 Jessica Allan ADEL 1.80 2.23 0.52 4.55 4 Georgia Bevan ADEL 1.24 2.16 1.07 4.47 4 Jodie Hicks GWS 2.21 0.43 1.82 4.47 5 Sophie Casey COLL 0.28 3.31 0.83 4.42 3 Brooke Patterson MELB 0.32 3.08 0.93 4.33 4 Claudia Whitfort MELB 1.26 0.40 2.66 4.32 2 Anne Hatchard ADEL 1.80 1.00 1.35 4.14 3 Anna Teague MELB 0.47 3.37 0.27 4.11 3 Tara Morgan COLL -0.56 4.52 0.14 4.10 3 Jodie White FRE 1.71 0.86 1.27 3.83 4 Kate Shierlaw CARL 2.54 0.11 1.18 3.83 4 Kim Rennie WB 2.07 0.35 1.40 3.82 3 Renee Forth GWS 0.20 1.40 2.15 3.75 4 Ruby Schleicher COLL -0.84 4.20 0.34 3.70 5 Emily McGuire FRE 2.61 0.37 0.71 3.69 3 Stacey Livingstone COLL 0.00 3.00 0.69 3.68 2 Abbey Holmes ADEL 1.98 1.10 0.43 3.52 3 Alyssa Mifsud MELB 2.68 -0.02 0.82 3.48 2 Deanna Berry WB 0.65 0.65 2.08 3.38 4 Isabella Ayre BL 1.12 0.22 2.03 3.36 4 Madeleine Boyd GWS 0.15 2.35 0.80 3.30 2 Megan Hunt BL 0.19 1.07 1.97 3.22 2 Eliza Hynes COLL 1.75 0.16 1.25 3.16 2 Tayla Bresland FRE 0.64 2.16 0.32 3.11 1 Bailey Hunt WB 0.44 2.33 0.24 3.00 4 Eden Zanker MELB 1.38 0.16 1.43 2.97 2 Sophie Armitstead ADEL 0.50 0.99 1.44 2.93 3 Tayla McAuliffe FRE 0.80 0.69 1.42 2.91 2 Sally Riley ADEL 0.99 0.92 0.75 2.67 2 Kristy Stratton COLL 0.56 0.98 1.07 2.61 1 Tiahna Cochrane CARL 0.40 1.04 1.12 2.56 1 Tiah Haynes FRE 0.21 1.55 0.77 2.54 2 Ashleigh Brazill COLL 0.00 2.44 0.04 2.48 1 Gemma Houghton FRE 0.75 1.01 0.62 2.38 2 Natalie Plane CARL 0.20 1.32 0.78 2.30 2 Talia Radan ADEL -0.50 2.71 0.01 2.23 2 Laura Bailey WB 1.09 0.08 0.98 2.15 2 Madeline Keryk CARL -0.20 1.99 0.35 2.14 2 Emma Mackie WB 0.65 1.14 0.27 2.06 3 Bree White COLL -0.56 1.54 1.00 1.98 3 Emma Pittman BL 0.56 0.47 0.85 1.88 2 Brianna Green FRE 0.43 0.82 0.59 1.84 1 Courtney Webb CARL 0.40 0.44 0.74 1.58 2 Maddy Guerin MELB 0.32 0.00 1.17 1.49 1 Sarah Dargan COLL 0.00 0.83 0.56 1.39 3 Holly Whitford COLL -0.28 0.36 1.28 1.35 3 Rachael Killian ADEL 0.25 0.78 0.29 1.32 2 Daria Bannister WB 0.65 -0.03 0.61 1.24 1 Reni Hicks CARL -0.20 1.14 0.24 1.18 4 Jade de Melo FRE 0.21 0.29 0.48 0.99 2 Sarah Last CARL 0.20 0.56 0.10 0.86 2 Bridie Kennedy CARL -0.40 1.12 0.10 0.82 3 Georgie Parker COLL 0.00 0.74 0.04 0.78 1 Philippa Smyth GWS 0.05 0.48 0.21 0.74 1 Gabby Collingwood BL 0.00 0.38 0.30 0.68 4 Laura Attard CARL -0.20 0.62 0.11 0.54 1 Katie-Jayne Grieve CARL 0.00 0.20 0.28 0.48 1 Louise Stephenson GWS -0.40 0.03 0.34 -0.03 2 Rebecca Privitelli GWS -0.20 0.03 0.14 -0.04 1 Jessica Anderson WB -0.22 -0.05 -0.02 -0.29 1

The Dogs have the most room for error this week; a narrow loss accompanied by other realistic results could see them qualify. If they lose, to qualify and face the Demons they need the Lions to draw with or beat GWS (with a combined margin under 13 goals) and Collingwood to draw with or beat the Crows.

2. Melbourne

Despite playing the ladder leaders in the last round in something that approximates do-or-die, we rate the Demons as having the second best chance of getting through to the Grand Final. They are only narrow underdogs to the Dogs, and they have a similar “loss and make the Grand Final” scenario to the one laid out above.

For a fair chunk of the season the Demons were the best team in the competition, led by their stellar midfield. But, as happened last season, a down stretch against weaker sides put their finals hopes in jeopardy. The Demons don’t need any unlikely scenarios; they just need to win.

If they lose, they can qualify if Collingwood beat Adelaide, but rather than the Dogs’ 13 goal combined margin buffer over the Lions, the Demons only have about five goals.

There’s a theoretical opportunity for a mutually beneficial draw unless GWS beat Brisbane by enough to pass Melbourne’s percentage, but it’s vanishingly unlikely that the two sides would engage in the explicit match-fixing required. Even if they did, the Crows could still jump Melbourne with a very big win over the Pies.

3. Adelaide

Adelaide have the “weakest” opponent of the five sides left in finals contention in the surprisingly frisky Pies. It’s must-win, but the Crows may also need percentage.

The Crows season was partially derailed by better opposition scouting, and partially by injuries, but they still find themselves in with a real shot of finals. To make the Grand Final, the Crows need to win over Collingwood and by the time they play on Sunday they will know the exact equation.

On Friday, they will hope GWS lose to the Lions, allowing any win to vault the Crows past Brisbane. The maths is tough if GWS win, because then the Crows will need a win by a margin of four goals more than the Giants’ margin. For example, a 1-goal GWS win leaves the Crows needing a roughly 30 point margin.

They also have to hope there isn’t a draw in the Bulldogs-Melbourne game on Saturday night – a draw leaves them also needing to gain percentage over the Dees.

4. GWS

The equation is less complex for the Giants than for the Crows, but the actual path is harder purely because they face the once-dominant Lions in the final week and might still the underdogs going in.

The GWS side of 2018 is a completely different side to the 2017 one, with Courtney Gum leading one of the best midfields in the competition. They haven’t lost since round 2 and they’re fresh off a confidence-building dismantling of the ladder-leading Bulldogs’ midfield ball movement.

To make the Grand Final, they need a win over the Lions, and then will be watching the Crows v Collingwood hoping the Crows don’t win by four goals more than they themselves already won by.

5. Brisbane

Brisbane, unbeaten in the AFLW regular season last year, now have three marks in the loss column. They have been overly reliant on certain players, like Lutkins, Frederick-Traub, Gibson and Wuetschner; the first two with the most game-time of any players this year, with Gibson not far behind. Lutkins has played 99.7% of available game time so far, which means she has spent less than two minutes on the bench so far. This time onfield by their stars could be hiding a lack of depth.

The Lions need to win this week and because they play first, they only know that they need to pile on the score to boost their percentage. They need to make up at least 38 points on Melbourne who don’t play until Saturday. A 7-goal Lions win means any Demons loss gets Brisbane in, but anything less than that and they need the Dees to lose by more. If the Demons happen to win, the equation becomes nearly impossible.

Even given all that, the Crows can still jump Brisbane with any win on Sunday.

6. Collingwood

Although the Pies are out of contention, the have the potential to play a major part in who plays next week, for the second consecutive year finding themselves able to spike Adelaide’s chances. After calls for his sacking, Wayne Siekman has transformed the Collingwood side into one of the league’s form outfitted, headed by a motivated Mo Hope. A win over Adelaide would end the season for the reigning premiers, and give an advantage to the loser of the Dogs-Dees match.

A Fremantle-Carlton draw leaves the Pies needing a win to avoid the wooden spoon.

7. Fremantle

Fremantle have also hit their straps to close the season after a shaky start, and have a chance to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon. The match between the Dockers and Blues would see the winner finishing 7th or even 6th, with both sides surely fighting hard to finish the season off strongly. The Dockers in particular have little incentive to tank given the state-segregated draft pools.

The Dockers have looked better and better as their younger players have become accustomed to the big stage, and as some of their veteran heads have regained fitness. Next season shapes as an opportunity for the Dockers to jump the pack, especially with the expansion of the competition in Victoria weakening the talent pool.

8. Carlton

The Blues started the season strongly before falling sharply with the injury to Bri Davey, and a few other knocks and suspension along the way. It’s hard to believe that just one player can have that much of an impact on a side’s fortunes, but as happened with Phillips and the Crows, the Blues look lost without their leader.

For next season, after wasting last year’s trade period, Carlton absolutely must manufacture a midfield from somewhere; either from the draft, trade table or via a overlooked veteran like the Giants did with Gum last season. Assuming Davey recovers in time, the bookends seem fine, but there is a giant hole in the middle of the ground.

In theory, the Carlton list managers might prefer a loss to secure draft pick 1 ahead of Collingwood, but with North Melbourne and Geelong joining in the first AFLW expansion next year, it seems unlikely the Blues would benefit much from that pick.

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