Effect will be noticeable at the till on 1 May, but some question if policy will help prime target

It is early afternoon in the east end of Glasgow and Neil Martin is buying his regular half bottle of high-strength tonic wine and large bottle of Strongbow cider. The caffeine-reinforced wine Eldorado boasts the distinctive slogan “Scotland’s own” along with a yellow and red thistle.

Martin seems unfazed by the fact that at midnight on Tuesday, the price of a bottle of Strongbow will jump to at least £5. “It won’t make any difference to me,” he says cheerfully. “When you have a drink problem, you’re going to find the money from somewhere. It doesn’t matter how much they put it up.”

Next week Scotland will begin a vast live experiment by introducing a legally enforced minimum price for all alcoholic drinks of 50p per unit, to help tackle a particularly Scottish problem with chronic alcohol abuse. Men like Martin are prime targets and this policy may yet be copied across the UK, with Wales next in line.

Scottish ministers claim the policy will save approximately 400 lives over the next five years and lead to about 8,000 fewer alcohol-related hospital admissions. Death rates are highest among working-class men, and Scots drink the equivalent of nearly 11 litres of pure alcohol a year on average – which is 40% more than the recommended safe drinking limit.



The effects in shops will be noticeable. Supermarkets across Scotland are expected to sideline their own-label vodka, gin and whisky, which will be no longer cheap enough to compete. Overnight, a standard bottle of whisky (700ml) must cost at least £14 from 1 May, compared with £11.25 for Asda’s own brand, while vodka will cost £13.13 or more, compared with £11 for Tesco and Asda own-label bottles.

Drinks firms producing so-called white cider, a high-strength product typecast for its abuse by binge-drinking teenagers, are already taking their largest bottles off the shelves. Some will see their prices triple overnight. Multipacks of beer and cider will also double in price.

Thousands of retailers have, in recent days, received Scottish government-branded warning signs and leaflets, backed by social media campaigns. But to the disappointment of some alcohol health experts, there are no official advertising campaigns on television or radio. Some retailers fear customers unaware of the imminent price hike will react aggressively when they find out at the till.

Further east towards Celtic football stadium in Parkhead, Imran Mohammed sells his bottles and cans behind floor-to-ceiling glass-fronted displays, taking payment through a small grid. One of his bestsellers is the high-strength cider HCC Black, which retails at £1 a can. It will nearly double in price to £1.90.

Sanguine about the new policy, Mohammed plans to stop stocking most of his cheaper brands once the price change comes into force. “Nobody will pay double price, so it will affect business badly,” he says.

“I’m expecting to lose about £500 a week, adding in the vodka too. But you’ve got to get on with it. Once the law kicks in it should help people’s health. If it’s cheap, they’ll buy anything, whether it’s drugs or fake cigarettes.”

Scotland’s pioneering experiment is being closely watched both in the rest of the UK and abroad. Thanks to Nicola Sturgeon’s persistence in defeating repeated attempts led by the Scotch Whisky Association to derail her proposals in the courts, minimum pricing is becoming a widely accepted idea.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Imran Mohammed of Drinks Express in the Parkhead area of Glasgow says he plans to stop stocking most of his cheaper brands. Photograph: Murdo Macleod/The Guardian

“Prevention is better than cure, which is why the introduction of minimum pricing is such a positive step forward,” Sturgeon told MSPs on Thursday. “In years to come, I think this will be something this parliament will be really, really proud of.”

Similar legislation is to come into force next year in Wales. A bill is working its way through the Welsh assembly and will get royal assent this summer. But Wales may set a higher price, of 60p or more per unit. Scottish experts, including the Royal Society of Edinburgh, believe 50p is too low. It was set in 2012, but with inflation they say 70p per unit would be more effective.

Ministers in Northern Ireland were considering minimum pricing before the Stormont power-sharing government collapsed last year and are expected to float the idea again once it resumes. Across the border, the government in Dublin likes the idea too. That combination is forcing the Home Office in London to shift ground. It will consider the policy again in two to three years’ time.

Prof Sir Ian Gilmore, the chair of the Alcohol Health Alliance, which includes the Royal College of Physicians, British Medical Association and Alcohol Concern, said ministers in Westminster needed to follow Scotland’s lead.

“There are more than 23,000 deaths a year in England linked to alcohol, and many of these come from the poorest and most vulnerable sections of society,” he said. “Any delay in implementing minimum unit pricing in England will only cost lives and lead to unnecessary alcohol-related harm.”



In private, industry sources say, the drinks industry is trying to pre-empt that by pressing the chancellor, Philip Hammond, to increase excise duty on low-cost, high-strength drinks rather than support blanket minimum pricing.

Brewers that also run pubs, such as C&C Group, the owner of Tennent’s lager, back minimum pricing as it reduces competition from supermarkets. But other industry sources warn minimum pricing will boost black-market sales.

Glen Friel, a Glasgow-born executive with Aston Manor Cider, which makes Frosty Jacks, a white cider infamous among health campaigners, said: “[The industry] is absolutely supportive if we can reduce harmful and hazardous drinking.”

But he believes most consumers will be shocked by the impact of minimum pricing on them. “What concerns me the most is that these moderate drinkers are going to be paying for the bulk of this policy,” he said. “Their choice is reducing and the products which are left are going to be significantly more expensive.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Scottish first minister. Nicola Sturgeon. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Sturgeon: “We need to change our relationship with alcohol to save lives. This Tuesday, the eyes of the world will once again be on Scotland as we implement a minimum price for alcohol of 50 pence per unit.

She continued: “Alcohol misuse causes around 700 hospital admissions and 22 deaths each week. Behind every one of these statistics is a person, a family, a community struggling with the impact of alcohol abuse.

“Last year, UK chief medical officers published new alcohol guidelines, recommending that both men and women drink no more than 14 units per week. In Scotland, those 14 units can currently be bought for just £2.52.

“The research is clear – alcohol consumption and harm go hand in hand, and the links between the two run deep. Minimum pricing is the best way to tackle the cheap, high strength alcohol that causes so much damage to so many families.

“Given alcohol is an epidemic faced right across the UK we stand ready to share our experience in delivering this responsible, forward-thinking policy with any other government, that is ready to take action.”