ON SATURDAY April 16th Nigerians went on to the polls to elect a president. The first results from the 120,000 polling stations across the country suggest that Goodluck Jonathan, the incumbent, will be re-elected. He appears to have taken about twice as many votes as his nearest competitor. At least 30 out of 36 states have recorded results so far and Mr Jonathan reportedly won 20 of them. Nine went to Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler who has been his main challenger. The advantages of incumbency in the Nigerian political system are immense and observers were not surprised to see Mr Jonathan ahead. In recent months he has doles out vast amounts of public money to supporters. They now hope he will follow through on his campaign promises, including the reform of the power sector. Support for Mr Jonathan was strongest in the south of the country, from which he hails. Mr Buhari fared strongest in his home region in northern Nigeria.

More important to watch than the results themselves will be the reports from independent election observers on whether the poll was credible. Nigeria has a history of fraudulent elections, mostly due to the machinations of Mr Jonathan's party. But the president made a concerted effort last year to make elections fairer, hoping to win a genuine mandate from the electorate to help him push through difficult reforms in the next four years. Before that, however, he may be forced into a run-off against Mr Buhari. He has to win a national majority of the vote plus a quarter of votes in two-thirds of Nigeria's states. He may well manage that. Full results are expected to trickle out in the next few days.