There is a large amount of interdependence between coral reefs and the inhabitants of reef islands, who use the reef as a source of income, leisure and sustenance . However, human-driven climate change has begun to negatively affect many low-lying atoll nations, who have little to no answer to rising sea levels and the increasing frequency of storm events. The added stress to coral reefs has inhibited their ability to adapt and therefore their capability to protect and maintain these islands. These issues have started to evolve from ecological issues to socio-economic ones, as the inhabitants of these islands will eventually be forced to find a new place to live – leaving not only their homes and livelihood, but their cultural and ancestral homeland with which they have a deep connection.

The impacts of rising sea level and climate change on low lying reef islands has been well researched, with a multitude of papers published over the past 20 years shedding light on the myriad of issues facing these islands. As a result of ocean acidification, coral bleaching and increases in storm events all coping mechanisms these islands have in-built to help counter changing sea levels and other such occurrences have been severely affected . The sedimentary process that is integral to island maintenance is expected to be especially affected by rising sea levels and should the process be halted completely, islands would be faced with shoreline erosion, loss of land, frequent inundations and groundwater salinity.

Social adaptation to changes in climate and weather is nothing new, and has often times served as a catalyst for innovation and development on not only an industrial and economic level, but also a social one. The evolution of irrigation, farming and fishing techniques are examples of how the interactions between communities and the climate have led to multiple adaptations. However, these adaptations were brought about over time and are almost benign in comparison to the current plight facing the inhabitants of low-lying reef islands. This latest interaction between these communities and the climate has pushed the boundaries of social adaptation, as it becomes clear that this is no longer a natural, progressive adaptation aimed at development, but one that is needed in order to survive.

Typically, many reef island economies rely on low-resilience activities such as farming or fishing, and whilst there have been some attempts made to start planting salt-resistant crops or enforcing fishing quotas to try future-proof these activities, these islands are incredibly susceptible to external shocks. Other, larger island groups such as the Maldives rely heavily on tourism, but with sea level rise and climate change threatening practically all forms of local infrastructure, it is expected that these islands’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could decline by as much as 18%. For nations who are already do not have a significant GDP, the further crippling of their economy can, and has already begun to negatively affect many countries’ attempts at trying to save their islands. This, compounded with an already stressed natural environment whose managing and coping mechanisms are already damaged has created a lot of strain on affected communities’ ability to adapt to the changing environment they find themselves in. The resilience of these populations is being tested, but for many, they are becoming increasingly vulnerable on a socio-economic scale not only an ecological one.

Whilst economic and physical issues can be easily observed, the impact on its inhabitants can be harder to fully unlock. Islanders have an intrinsic attachment to their ancestral lands, solidified by thousands of years’ worth of traditions, culture, morals and practices, which has led them to becoming a very resilient people. The inhabitants of reef islands have long-held the knowledge that man-made climate change would threaten their homes through rising sea levels and increases in storm activity. This means that their resilience in the face of issues such as the ones brought about by climate change will be high, and they will fight to try conserve their homelands and with it, their culture, heritage and way of life.That being said, different communities will have different resilience and adaption levels stemming on how dependent on local resources they are, and in turn, how sensitive those resources are to ongoing climate change. For example, the communities dependent on activities such as fishing and farming will not be as resilient as those who are reliant on tourism, industry or have a diverse economic portfolio.

From an historical perspective, there have been multiple migrations between different islands, but none to the scale currently expected. Forcing these people off their lands will result in a significant loss in cultural identity for the thousands displaced whilst adding strain to the local environment and infrastructure of the receiving nations. Furthermore, the displacement of several thousand environmental refugees will raise issues that have never been seen at this scale, with no current international framework currently in place, and a very small chance that an overlapping policy will work across such a large scale. The threshold at which an all-out evacuation has yet to be met – or properly determined – as social structure within at-risk islands are expected to outlast other environmental and economic systems.

Using social capital and collective action is integral to increase the resilience of communities on climate change affected islands, as well as helping create mitigation measures through policies and action. Likewise, mitigation on both a socio-economic and physical scale is incredibly valuable to help stabilize and increase the resilience of at-risk nations. However, despite their best efforts, local solutions to rising sea levels and other issues have often had little success, with poor management and insufficient funds to blame. Additionally, the general scientific uncertainty surrounding the best plan of action against these issues or the total amount of threats currently affecting reef islands is jeopardizing communities’ ability to mitigate impacts. This adds more credence to the growing belief that mass migrations is unavoidable, further emphasizing the need for a strategic plan to help build up community resilience to help mitigate the effects of climate change as well as put in place an international framework to ensure that these refugees and host countries are not left with a lack of options at their disposal.

Higher-elevated islands such as Fiji, New Zealand, Tonga or Samoa which will not be as affected by rising sea levels, are expected to be models of resilience for smaller island nations, with the people’s traditional systems along with their self-help and support networks expected to lead to a general social adaptation to these issues. As a result of this, these islands are also expected to be the intended destination of many climate refugees, with many islanders having already travelled to larger, neighbouring nations over the past 20 years as various climate pressures have taken a toll on their homeland. However, only two nations have so far shown any inclination that they would be willing to accept large numbers or migrants – Fiji and New Zealand – but even then, both countries have different expectations. Fiji has led the way by opening their borders to climate refugees from nearby nations, whilst New Zealand has expressed a desire to help but only within a very local area.

Despite not having any policies – or on some cases, infrastructure – in place to manage a large influx of migrants, social inclusion within several larger island nations such as Fiji will be one of the easier aspects to facilitate, as many social constructs within communities are malleable and therefore able to adapt to new situations. The issues remains however that social inclusion can led to loss of culture and tradition as refugees integrate a country which has different laws, views and culture. Furthermore, an influx of refugees into another country, whether it be gradual or sudden, can upset socio-economic dynamics within the receiving nation.

Refugee Case Study: Germany vs Fiji

In literature, the socio-economic and environmental impacts of climate change on low lying islands and their inhabitants are well documented, however the effects of mass migration from these islands to neighbouring countries can only be debated as scientists struggle to come to terms with the total amount of people affected by climate change. With certain estimates reaching as high as 200 million climate refugees by 2050, it is easy to see why many are frightened at the threat of climate-driven migration. However, by looking at mass migrations in another context it could help determine what exactly are the social, economic and environmental issues that receiving countries may face.

Germany, the country leading the charge in helping relocate hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing their war-torn country, will be compared to the country currently expected to take on the most climate refugees in the Pacific region: Fiji.

During the Syrian Refugee Crisis in 2015, Germany pledged to take in 800 000 refugees, with over 500 000 migrants crossing the border by June of that year, and several other hundreds of thousands seeking asylum in a multitude of other European countries . Although there is currently no literature breaking down the current issues facing Germany as a result of its decision to bring in so many refugees, the impacts have been plain to see through the media. A range of issues have come about including but not limited to security problems, social turmoil and various stressors on local infrastructure – all issues that are also expected to arise as climate refugees begin to relocate to neighbouring countries.

The issues currently affecting Germany are alarming when you realise that it has Europe’s largest economy — fourth overall in the world — and posted a GDP of $3.4 Trillion in 2015. If a country the size of Germany has such issues how will one like Fiji deal with migration equal in size to the one Germany is dealing with? Fiji, despite having one of the better economies of all the Pacific nations, ranks outside the top 100 world economies and has a GDP of $4.7 Billion. When you consider that estimates for the amount of climate refugees in the Pacific stretches from 665 000 to 1.75 million by 2050 and a lack of interest from larger, neighbouring countries to take in refugees, climate or otherwise, Island nations like Fiji will struggle to cope on both a social and economic level with such a large influx of refugees.

In the face of climate change and rising sea level, the resilience of many communities living on low lying reef islands will be tested. The use of social capital and collective action can help mitigate several issues, although many will be forced to relocate to different countries as their islands slip beneath the waves. The loss of cultural identity as a result of this will already be large enough without considering the socio-economic pressures facing both the displaced community and that of countries willing to help relocate them. Scientific uncertainty has limited our ability to predict the extent of the damage done on both a social and economic level as the world faces the potential for one of the biggest migrations in recorded history, but recent examples tell us the results could be disastrous in countries lacking the infrastructure and strength to cope with an influx of refugees.