Gemel Smith is 24 years old with 63 games played over two years and 17 total points. The Dallas Stars placed him on waivers at the end of last week leading up to his arbitration hearing, and he passed without any of the other 30 teams in the NHL making a claim. Viewed through that lens it seems like a fairly natural transaction.

It's also late July. The Stars haven't made any roster additions in a while. There is no pressing roster issue forcing the Stars to expose Smith to waivers.

The Stars placed Gemel Smith on waivers yesterday and he cleared today. — Mark Stepneski (@StarsInsideEdge) July 27, 2018

No, it's likely just a maneuver prior to his arbitration hearing which is scheduled for next Wednesday. The fact that no team claimed him can bolster the Stars' case for a lower salary. — Mark Stepneski (@StarsInsideEdge) July 27, 2018

The most likely explanation is that the Stars placed him on waivers to bolster their arbitration case. This is an interesting theory thrown out there by Mark Stepneski, among others.

It begs a couple of questions. The biggest one is how much could Gemel Smith be seeking that this is really even an issue? Matt Cane's model projected Smith to get $729,347 based on what players with his counting stats have historically gotten.

The arbitration process the club and player will go through is straight-forward. Stanley Cup of Chowder has a really nice write up of what the process looks like. One key takeaway is that only other restricted free agent contracts can be used as comparable deals in arguments. The evidence that can be used is as follows (from an example about Ryan Spooner):

A lot of the appeal of holding on to Smith are the underlying numbers produced when he is on the ice.

The data collected by Ryan Stimson and Corey Sznajder shows Smith does many things at a wonderfully high level. The only real negative that shows up is that Smith doesn't shoot enough. Otherwise? He looks pretty elite.

From Corsica, Smith's expected goal percentage this past season was 55.34%, second on the Stars behind Brett Ritchie. The problem with all of this is that the information isn't from NHL.com so it isn't going to be admissible in an arbitration hearing.

The information is great and fans can expect a lot more from Smith if he gets the ice time his underlying numbers suggest he should get. It makes the fact that he went unclaimed through waivers all the more odd because he has several indicators suggesting that he will be a solid contributor when he gets an increased role. He's still with the club though, and to argue his case his representation will need to find statistically comparable players to buoy his case for whatever salary number he's seeking.

Who could they be looking at?

Looking at the data from all forwards who have 600 or more minutes the last two seasons from Corsica, we can find reasonable comps for Smith. Or, players who primarily started in the defensive zone and focused on things like Corsi %, Points per 82 games, and Points per 60 minutes. Interestingly, among the close comps were teammates Devin Shore, Brett Ritchie, and Remi Elie.

All four players are between 22 and 24 years old. They're all right between 10-12 minutes per night of even strength ice time over the last two combined seasons. Prorated over 82 games all four are at 18-20 points per 82 games at even strength. Smith leads in Points per 60 minutes. He starts more frequently in the defensive zone, making those points generally tougher to get since he has more ice to navigate. He and Ritchie have the highest Corsi For % of the group.

Elie ultimately signed for about what Smith was projected to receive. Shore and Ritchie separated themselves from Smith on special teams, but if you're Smith you can't control the way ice time is distributed. You're also very confident that you're a better player than Elie, or at least should be confident.

Gemel Smith has a reasonable case to ask for close to the money Ritchie got. The Stars have a reasonable case for sticking him with the salary Elie got. Pushing Smith through waivers with ease, the Stars have to be confident they'll win their case despite solid evidence that Smith is ultimately going to be underpaid relative to several of his teammates.