If you’ve played the popular video game franchise MLB: The Show in recent years, you’ve probably heard about as much as you can take from Mark DeRosa regarding “ambush tactics” at the plate. He mentions it just about anytime a hitter swings at the first pitch, and like most sports video game commentary, the few scripted lines get worn out. Interestingly enough though, the Atlanta Braves have themselves one hell of an ambush hitter, and they just locked him up for a decade.

Ronald Acuña Jr. quickly gained notoriety at the MLB level through his method of attacking pitchers and not giving them a chance to work into a favorable count. All that did for the 20-year-old last year was translate into a .293 batting average with an OPS over .900 in 111 games. Once he assumed the leadoff role, Acuña became known for starting games off with a bang. As the first batter of the game (66 plate appearances), he slashed an incredible .387/.424/.855 with three doubles, a triple, and eight leadoff home runs. The kid simply mashed baseballs. It’s what he does.

Through sixteen games this year, Ronald has impressed many with his patience, drawing exactly one walk per strikeout with an 18.3% walk rate. That mark is nearly a full 6% higher than his best mark at any professional level (12.5% in 2016, rookie ball), and could be a sign of a much improved approach from the 21-year-old pheñom.

However, if there had to be a weakness to Acuña’s NL Rookie of the Year campaign, it would be his lack of patience at the plate. While it’s understandable for an elite hitter to put more balls in play as he sees better pitching, it’s also important for him to be able to change his approach as he works into deeper counts. The “ambush mentality” works when you’re being fed a steady diet of first-pitch strikes, but Acuña has seen roughly an 11% decline in them so far this season.

Starting things off right

It’s no secret that Acuña was hitting the ball well when he jumped on the first pitch last year. As mentioned before, he slugged over .850 when doing so, but what happened when he wasn’t able to get good wood on a first-pitch strike?

There were 247 instances in which Ronald Acuña Jr. began a plate appearance down 0-1. Those 247 plate appearances yielded just 17 walks (6.9% rate, nice), and Acuña struck out 98 times (39.7% rate, not nice) after falling down 0-1. His efforts produced just a .179/.243/.335 line, and it’s expected for a young hitter to struggle when behind in the count, but even so, fellow phenom Juan Soto put up a 276/.357/.482 line after getting to 0-1. That’s a huge difference that lies within Soto’s ability to stay patient in spite of unfavorable situations. It’s especially important for Acuña to be able to do so when considering that he saw more 0-1 counts (247) than he did 1-0 and first-pitch contact (240) combined.

Acuña’s 5.6% drop in pull rate and his 48.1% medium hit rate after an 0-1 count are evidence that he might’ve adjusted his swing a bit as the count progressed, but they could also be a product of seeing more breaking balls in pitchers’ counts. Ronnie saw 62% first-pitch strikes in 2018, and that was supplemented with a 66.5% strike rate after the count reached 0-1 (49.3% after 1-0). Taking into account the 151 balls he put into play after 0-1, 53.1% of pitches thrown to him were strikes that he did not put in play. That’s a zone swing rate of 46.9%, which is 25.9% less often than he typically swung at pitches in the zone. Simply put, when a pitcher got ahead of Acuña, he’d continue to pound the zone, and Ronald just wasn’t able to hang around for his pitch.

Inversely, it would make sense for Acuña to have done much better work after getting to a 1-0 count, and he did. In 184 plate appeaeances following a 1-0 count, he slashed .396/.495/.753 with 27 extra-base hits and a super encouraging 13.6% strikeout rate. Acuña saw 27.7% of his fly balls leave the yard in these situations, which is almost double his rate after an 0-1 count (14.5%).

He made it clear in ’18 that his game was to get to the pitcher before the pitcher got to him, and it’s an excellent strategy that he can build on in 2019 and years to come.

Get ’em early & get ’em often.

It’s great to see a young hitter like Acuña ambush pitchers in a way that gets him 56 extra-base hits in just 111 games. As if that’s not enough production, there’s still a ton of room for improvement as the kid gets older. It’s easy to forget that Ronald’s only 21, because he does so many things that normal 21-year-olds should not be able to do, like this:

Ronald Acuña Jr. launches a rocket from one knee. 🚀 pic.twitter.com/HUCe9McGar — FOX Sports South (@FOXSportsSouth) April 17, 2019

In at-bats of three pitches or fewer (including all 0-2 counts due to lack of data), Ronald was 70-for-189 (.370) with 15 doubles, 2 triples, and 11 home runs, which comes out to a .646 slugging percentage. One would expect a higher home run rate, given all the leadoff shots, but just 49 of those 189 at-bats were fastball counts (1-0, 2-0). The “ambush mentality” usually comes hand-in-hand with a lack of patience, though, and the biggest hurdle for young hitters is continuing to develop it at the MLB level.

Once Acuña got past three pitches in an at-bat, his chances of success decreased exponentially. His average dropped down to .234 (57-for-244) with a .439 SLG. Of those 244 at-bats, 203 of them ended after 1-2, 2-2, or 3-2. Now, I don’t know a soul that would complain about an ISO of .205, but I do find solace in the fact that the numbers are going to get so much better when his plate discipline fully comes around. Once Acuña has a few years of seeing MLB pitching under his belt, expect to see that on-base percentage soar up to near or above .400, subsequently putting him in more favorable counts.

The plus side to Ronald Acuña getting himself into so many deep counts is that he’s generally been good with a full count. Due to his ability to make contact and foul pitches off, a great hitter will see more full counts than any other count. Acuña’s .224 average last year with a full count doesn’t scream “elite”, but hell, Mike Trout only batted .231. As long as he consistently draws walks from the count, Ronnie will be fine, and his .470 OBP and 31% walk rate with a full count supplement that claim. So far in 2019, he’s put up a 1.350 OPS in 25 full counts, drawing nine walks to just four strikeouts. Small sample size, but that’s one area he’s improved already.

Sophomore Slump?

No.

Already Adjusting

So far, Ronald Acuña has gotten two strikes on him in 47 of his 71 plate appearances, and he’s fared pretty well. A .263/.404/.421 line is a vast improvement over last season’s two-strike OPS of .605. While he still has just a .158 average in at-bats of more than three pitches, there’s plenty of reason to believe that won’t last throughout the season.

In 88 plate appearances last year in which the count got to 0-2, Ronald struck out 56.8% of the time. This year, that number is just 30% (3 SO in 10 PA). Maintaining that number throughout the year would help get Acuña’s overall strikeout rate well below 20%. This level of discipline is expected with age, but Acuña has always been one to be ahead of the curve. Again, while there’s not a huge sample size to go by, it’s encouraging to see bad habits put to rest early in the season.

We’re witnessing just the tip of the proverbial iceberg that is Ronald Acuña Jr.’s career, and it’s already a thrill. Once he rounds out his game and learns to be a more patient hitter, Atlanta Braves fans are in for quite the treat. Acuña has a legitimate shot at the MVP award this year, as well as each of the next ten years (in which he will make roughly one-third of what Bryce Harper makes), so buckle up for the ride, and Chop On!