The biggest mystery of the Blue Jays’ off-season doesn’t centre on which starting pitchers the club intends to acquire. Instead, it’s largely focused on how much money this team has to spend.

Two years ago, Toronto allocated $163 million (U.S.) for its opening-day payroll. Last season, the number dropped to $114 million and there seems to be a very realistic chance that it will be going down again in 2020.

The Blue Jays have just four players with guaranteed contracts next season: Randal Grichuk, Chase Anderson, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and right-hander Anthony Bass will combine to make approximately $30 million. The 26-man roster figure jumps to approximately $55 million with arbitration estimates and $64 million once rookie-scale contracts are factored in.

Toronto would have to almost double its salaries this off-season to surpass its payroll from 2019. That may have seemed realistic earlier this off-season when a large group of free agent starters was available, but with Zack Wheeler, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and others off the board, it’s getting increasingly difficult to figure out how much money this team intends to use.

“I think that’s reasonable but not necessarily the case,” Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro said when asked if Toronto expected to have a similar payroll next year. “There are still some variables, there are still some situations that would lead to a payroll being bigger, and there are some variables, if we don’t feel like the right moves are out there, that would lead to the payroll being lower.

“We’re not going to spend it just to spend it, but there are certainly opportunities to go beyond last year in the right circumstance as well. (Payroll) is not a static number.”

Shapiro went on to explain that the Blue Jays map out multiple scenarios at the start of the off-season and explain their approach to ownership. There are different levels of payroll associated with each move and the signings the Jays are able, or unable, to complete will cause that number to go up or down.

Toronto has to strategize in advance to avoid seeking Rogers Communications’ approval for every move. When a team is controlled by one individual, it’s easy to get the owner on the phone to provide a yes or no answer. It’s more complicated when dealing with the board at a large corporation. Most of the work must be done beforehand.

The Blue Jays went through that process in October and have since touched base with almost every free agent, but they also seem to have clear numbers in mind for each guy. Toronto has yet to go outside its comfort zone to secure an asset with a long-term deal and Shapiro admitted there is a chance some of the work will be pushed into next year.

“There’s a very limited number of impact players on any given free-agent market,” Shapiro said. “Usually, if you’re competing for those guys, they’ve got their pick of where they go to and how competitive a team is at a given time.

“When I say geography, I am not at all talking about Toronto and Canada. All I’m talking about is east and west, Arizona spring training and Florida spring training. These are the kinds of things they have a choice of deciding. It’s not just, ‘Oh, there’s an impact guy, we’re going to sign him.’ It’s, ‘What does (the player) want.’”

The Jays should be taking advantage of the next three years before the core hits its arbitration years. Vladimir Guerrero, Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette and many others won’t start getting big raises until at least 2023. Prospect Nate Pearson will be even later than that. There was a unique opportunity this off-season for the Jays to front-load contracts to top-tier free agents or find stabilizing pieces on three- or four-year deals. It was possible to do that without limiting the ability to complement the young players with help from outside the organization when they start earning higher salaries.

A perfect example can be found in how the Cubs built their World Series team. Chicago finished last in the National League Central in 2014 after going 73-89. Despite the record, the Cubs were optimistic about their group of young position players, which included Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo.

The Cubs had plenty of hitting but lacked pitching. They could have sat back another year and waited for the core to continue its development, but instead Chicago president Theo Epstein went out and signed Jon Lester to a six-year contract while also adding Jason Hammel, Jason Motte and Miguel Montero to the roster.

Chicago went on to win 97 games the following year before losing in the NL Championship Series. The Cubs upgraded again that winter by signing Ben Zobrist, John Lackey and Jason Heyward, among others. The additions upped Chicago’s win total to 103 and resulted in the organization’s first World Series title since 1908.

The Cubs’ model is the blueprint the Jays should be following. It requires overpaying in free agency but commitments over the next few years would be offset by the rookie-scale contracts. Guerrero and Bichette will never be as cheap as they are right now. This winter was the perfect time to strike. Not all the work can be done in one off-season.

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“The flexibility we have right now is among the best in the game,” Shapiro said. “It might be the best, but we are very well positioned. The combination of young talent along with the lack of future commitments. It will never be this again, it’s just in this moment.”

Flexibility is great, but it doesn’t mean anything if the Blue Jays don’t take advantage of it.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca

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