Peaking performances, the limits of human physical ability

ON AUGUST 5th millions of people will tune in to watch the 100-metre final at the London Olympics. Many will be asking themselves if anyone can repeat Usain Bolt’s feat in Berlin in 2009, when the Jamaican lopped a whopping 0.11 seconds off the previous world record of 9.69 seconds, which he set a year earlier at the Beijing games. As we explain in this week's print edition, another 0.11 seconds would take the time below what Mark Denny, from Stanford University, has calculated to be the absolute limit of human athletic performance in the 100-metre dash, based on an analysis of annual fastest times going back a century. Dr Denny also looked at other distances. Our chart illustrates his predictions for a handful of blue-ribbon events. In some, like the men's 1500 metres, athletes still have some way to go. In others, especially the women's marathon, which Paula Radcliffe completed in a stunning 2 hours 15 minutes and 25 seconds in 2003, they are already nudging the limit of what is possible—statistically, at least.