Across the Afghan capital, carpentry shops are turning out crude pine tables. Soon, thousands of families will spend icy winter evenings huddled around them, with a few hot coals underneath and blankets spread over the top. In many areas, electricity cuts and high firewood costs have made these traditional sandali stoves the only source of heat.

“The cold is getting worse, the prices are going up and there is no work,” says Baba Pahlawan, who sells firewood for about eight cents a pound. Most customers, he says, can afford only a few sticks at a time. When they run out, they buy a few pieces of coal. When that runs out, “people stay under their blankets and wait for the morning”.

As another harsh winter approaches, worry is sharpening the seasonal chill in this bustling but bedraggled city of four million surrounded by white-capped mountains. It is being felt not only in communities like Pahlawan’s – and not only because of the worsening daily struggle to survive.

Two larger, intertwined struggles to determine the country’s future have dominated the national conversation for months: on-and-off peace talks with Taliban insurgents and a contentious process to choose a new president. Now, both efforts have slowed to a near-halt, and analysts say it may be spring before either bears fruit.

Negotiations between Taliban and US officials, which had advanced in fits and starts, were cancelled by President Donald Trump in September. This month the talks were revived, and various truce proposals are under discussion.

But the insurgents seem in no hurry to make a deal, while the White House appears likely to withdraw thousands of troops even as Taliban violence continues. Last year, army sergeant Michael J Goble was killed during combat operations in northern Kunduz province, becoming the 20th American service member to die violently in Afghanistan in 2019. Taliban spokesmen claimed responsibility for his death in a roadside bombing.

Vendors warm themselves up around a fire as they wait for customers (AFP)

Meanwhile, the troubled Afghan governing transition has become bogged down in complaints of fraud, leaving the country rudderless and tense. On Sunday, election officials released preliminary results showing that Afghan president Ashraf Ghani narrowly won re-election in the 28 September poll, with just over 50 per cent of the vote, but his opponents immediately challenged the results.

Shoppers crowd a market in Kabul, Afghanistan (The Washington Post)

It will now probably take many weeks for an election panel to review thousands of fraud allegations, including charges that numerous votes were cast before or after election day. If enough votes are invalidated, a runoff will be required in the spring.

“We are at a deadlock of war and peace and politics,” says Rahmatullah Nabil, a former national intelligence director who placed third in the race. He predicted that with up to 300,000 ballots being challenged and a 12,000-vote margin announced between Ghani and his top contender, Abdullah Abdullah, a runoff is likely.

But others also warned that further delays could lead to political turmoil. The insurgents have refused to recognise Ghani’s government, and Nabil says a broad array of Afghans need to “sit down and discuss the way forward. Either a fraudulent government or a parallel one would be dangerous for democracy”.

Insurgents refuse to recognise Ghani’s government which has led to further turmoil (Getty)

Ghani and his aides have put an aggressive, upbeat face on the situation. The president promised one gathering of supporters this week that he and his “state-building team” will consolidate a “true Islamic republic” – meaning a Muslim democracy. Taliban leaders seek to instal a theocratic emirate.

While US and UN officials have cautioned that the election will not be over until all complaints have been investigated, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, who shares Afghans’ widespread antipathy towards their common neighbour, Pakistan, has already called to congratulate Ghani.

Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Show all 20 1 /20 Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Nooria*, 15 in the home her family has lived in for the past two years in Mazar-i Sharif She was forced to flee her home with her family after their town was attacked by armed groups. Nooria describes a rocket hitting her neighbours home killing many inside. They fled on foot with just the clothes on their backs and she now lives in Mazari Shariff where Save the Children have enrolled her in school and provide vocational training Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Nooria* hopes for a future with no war; "When they attacked our village, the rocket hit our neighbour's house and they all died. Our house then caught fire and we ran away. My friends who I used to play with - I still don't know if they are alive or if they are dead.” Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict “I'm hoping for a better future, to learn, to support my family and to get them out of this difficult life. And I'm hoping for a future where there is no war.” Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Naveed*, 16 at his family home in Mazar-i Sharif Naveed lost his leg when he stepped on a mine aged just 8-years-old. He was herding the family's sheep in the mountains near their home when he triggered a landmine Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict After months of medical treatment his right leg was eventually amputated. He received physiotherapy and a prosthetic leg from the International Committee for the Red Cross in Mazar Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Now enrolled in school, Naveed is being given vocational training by Save the Children. “For around a year I felt and dreamt that I still had my leg. But when I woke up and saw, there was no leg. Sometimes I’d feel with my hand to check and find it wasn't there.” Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict “If someone has loses their leg, it does not mean that they have lost their mind." Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict "With the help of our minds we can continue to study, learn, and work to make the future of our families brighter.” Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Naveed and Mahboob*, 55 (Naveed's father) Several years ago Neveed's father, Mahboob, was brutally beaten with rifle butts by armed groups after, he says, he failed to provide food for them while they were stationed in the family's village. He suffered brain damage which affected the right side of his body, speech and his brain function Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Habiba*, 14, and Arezo*, 15 in a village outside Kabul Habiba and Arezo were injured with their mother three years ago in a suicide bombing in Kabul. Arezo is still traumatised from what she saw and has become completely withdrawn Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Arezo's younger sister Habiba cares for her, takes her to lessons and anywhere she wants to go. They are both in school through Save the Children's 'Steps towards Afghan girls' education success' (STAGES) programme, which helps the most marginalised girls get access to education, stay in school and learn. Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Habiba says: “When I woke up and I opened my eyes I saw lots of bodies and I thought I was not alive any more. It was horrible. I'll never forget that. Whenever there is a big sound she gets scared because she was traumatised by the sound she heard during the attack. I love my sister, and I help her with her lessons, I take her anywhere." Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict "She's older than me but I feel like the older one because I support her. I hope for a better future for me and my sister.” Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Khalida*, 10 in a classroom in a village outside Kabul Two years ago Khalida lost her 18-year old brother when he was killed in an explosion in Kabul. She misses him every day and says the family are still carrying the grief of his loss Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict "Two years ago, my brother was going to Kabul when an explosion happened and he lost his life. We are still carrying the grief and are crying over him. At the time we were happy, everyone was happy. Now no-one is happy in the family. When I remember him, I cry and feel so bad. I hope for peace and that war will stop, and that nobody loses their brother” Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict “I want to get education to become a teacher. I want to teach others who have never been to school” Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Sema*,11 at her family home in Kabul Sema recalls coming home from her aunt's house and being told that her father had been killed in a suicide attack Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict Sema still thinks about him every second and likes to look at his prayer beads (Tisbeh) to remember him. They hang from the curtain in the family home. She loves school and wants to become a teacher one day. Sema says she wants peace in her country to stop other children losing their fathers. “We still have lots of his belongings, like his car, his clothes, his watch, his shoes. Whenever we see them we cry. He gave us all so much love every moment and he is on our minds. I want for the powerful people around the world to stop the war and bring peace, because I don't want other children to lose their fathers.” Andrew Quilty/Save the Children Afghanistan war: lives of children devastated by the endless conflict “I want to become a teacher to serve the country and I don't want any girls to be illiterate. I want to teach all the girls, so they have access to education.” *Names have been changed to protect identities Andrew Quilty/Save the Children

For many Afghans, both the election contretemps and the disappointing trajectory of the US-Taliban talks exemplify the distance between high-level power struggles and everyday concerns.

“Peace and elections are the preoccupations of the elite, while human circumstances are in crisis,” says Davood Moradian, executive director of the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies. “Facebook has created a virtual world for Afghan politics, but it is not the world in which most Afghans live.”

Families sit round blanketed tables with hot coals underneath them (Getty)

In interviews this week, a variety of Kabul residents said they were disillusioned with the national leadership, especially those living in poverty. After years of massive foreign aid, Afghanistan remains one of the world’s poorest countries. A recent survey by the Asia Foundation said that a quarter of Afghan households earn less than $64 (£49) a month.

“There is no security, and there are no jobs, because all the rich people have fled,” says Mawladaad Wasi, who carts wood and coal all day but does not earn enough to keep his home warm. He denounced politicians as corrupt and says funds spent on the elections “should have been donated to poor people”.

Pahlawan says most customers can afford to buy only a few sticks of firewood at a time (The Washington Post)

Several others with professional backgrounds seemed equally despairing. Some say they have lost good jobs after the drastic cutback in US troops in 2014; others blame the conflict for blocking investment or say the Ghani government has failed to create jobs while pursuing grandiose projects.

Abdul Rashid was once a teacher, but he now sells fruit. He says two of his sons had to leave school to work washing cars, while he returns home exhausted each night after 15-hour days pushing a heavy cart.

“I am very worried about the future,” Rashid says. “If we did not see improvement for a majority of people during the past 18 years, when there was a flood of foreign aid and troops, how can we be hopeful for a future that brings peace and good governance?”

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Last year, the Asia Foundation survey found that Afghans’ optimism had increased slightly, with 36 per cent of respondents saying the country was “going in the right direction”, up from about 32 per cent in 2018. But much of that increase, it says, was based on hopes for a breakthrough in peace talks.

Since September, that hope has subsided again. Even if a proposed brief truce can be reached, analysts say, the likelihood of further US troop cuts has left the insurgents feeling more powerful, while the election dispute lessens the chance of creating a unified, credible Afghan team to negotiate the country’s political future.

“The momentum has been lost,” Moradian says. “Things are stuck, enthusiasm for the peace effort has dwindled, and the Taliban look like they are aiming for victory.” The US, he says “used to own the peace process. But no one in Kabul does”.

Sitting next to a pyramid of firewood, Pahlawan put the problem another way. “What we need are more factories, so people can go to work and stop being beggars,” he says. “Instead it looks like we are just going to have more war.”