The most predictable words uttered by any AFL spokesperson in 2019 are likely to occur this evening.

After stepping up to the podium at Melbourne's Docklands stadium, AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan is expected to announce: "With pick one, in the 2019 AFL draft, the Gold Coast Football Club have selected Matt Rowell from the Oakleigh Chargers."

If you haven't watched or followed the draft before, it will probably look a bit like this:

Loading...

Rowell's name will almost certainly be followed by his long-time club teammate Noah Anderson, with the Demons set to grab Western Australian ruckman Luke Jackson.

After that, there's disagreement. But amid the fog of the draft, there is the power of the consensus to help cut through it.

Who is likely to go where

In the past few days, a consensus has formed around the top-end of the draft, with most experts in the field believing that at least the top three selections are now locked in.

Various sources in and around the media landscape, however, have thrown up various names for the tier below, a large grouping of talent that evaluators believe is relatively even.

Since 2015, HPNFooty has been tracking the various phantom drafts in circulation and producing a composite draft called the consensus phantom draft (CPD).

The CPD relies on the wisdom of the crowd and is usually more accurate than all bar one or two individual drafts. The CPD is compiled from phantom and mock drafts from experts and dedicated amateurs, and due to the wide range of views is likely to provide a better indication of who will go where.

There's a bit more about the art of phantom drafts and the CPD below, but this is how it looks on the day of the draft with players sorted by their average ranking in the expert phantom drafts:

Early on, it appears that the actions of GWS will shape much of the draft. At pick four, several opinions existed for the Giants but they are expected to be leaning towards Lachlan Ash. Several other players are in the mix, however, including Jackson if the Demons change their mind at the last minute.

Most expect Ash and Sam Flanders to go to GWS and Sydney respectively, with Adelaide then reaching for the tall Fischer McAsey. With two consecutive picks, the Dockers are where the consensus among the experts starts to diverge, as illustrated when draftees are assigned by the club of selection rather than the rankings:

The consensus pick-by-pick draft shows a strong agreement for the first few picks but then the Dockers are expected to go for any two of Hayden Young, Dylan Stephens or local boy Deven Robertson.

In either case, Caleb Serong is tipped to slide to Carlton, despite being seen for a good part of the year as a top-five selection. It's worth noting that several of the more reliable experts have the Dockers overlooking Robertson.

The other key moment involving the Giants regards bidding on Tom Green, the player many believe to be the third best in the class.

As Green will almost certainly go to the Giants after their first selection — and that the Giants will almost certainly match any bid — the actual pick he is nominated at is somewhat academic.

It was mooted early on that the Swans would place a bid in at pick five, but the normally reliable reporter Cal Twomey from the AFL's website has a bid coming around the edge of the top 10, or even outside of it.

The larger impact of a potential Green bid could be a signal of how willing clubs are to nominate a player that they are almost certainly not likely to be able to attain, with about five further-tied players in the 2019 draft and about 20 in the 2020 crop.

Loading

A delayed bid may mean that clubs lucky enough to have talented father-son and academy prospects are rewarded beyond the points discount they already receive.

An early or late bid could influence whether GWS have a points deficit next year, or whether they can perhaps also afford their fringe draft prospect in Liam Delahunty in the later rounds.

Bids for Liam Henry and Finn Maginness for Fremantle and Hawthorn will also shape their later pick availability.

The consensus after Melbourne's second pick (tipped by the most trustworthy of experts as being Kysaiah Pickett) diverges, but there's still strong agreement on Cooper Stephens going to Richmond.

With a draft class built around solid utility, midfield and rebounding defender types, this draft could see several clubs reach for need beyond the widely held view of the talent available.

Many recruiters are believed to be tossing up the lower perceived talent levels of this draft class — compared to the 2018 and 2020 crops — against the 2020 draft being very compromised, with many top prospects tied to clubs through academy and father-son links.

Rising or sliding

The analysis of the junior crop starts much earlier than November. Dedicated reporters begin ranking and evaluating talent from almost the second the previous draft is wrapped up.

From tracking the consensus of such rankings over time — and comparing to the consensus draft — it can be seen how club decisions shape the final draft order away from where outsiders might rate players.

Against earlier observer rankings, the biggest risers in the draft are both linked to Melbourne, with Jackson not considered a top-10 prospect until footy stopped for the 2019 season and Kysaiah Pickett moving into first-round considerations for many phantom drafts.

On the other hand, several names mentioned early on as top-10 chances — such as Dylan Williams, Mitchell O'Neill and Cam Taheney — have completely fallen out of favour and slid outside of the predicted first round, as has Brodie Kemp, who impressed at the under-18 national championships but then tore his ACL.

Also of note is Emerson Jeka, who was thought of at this time last year as a potential top-10 selection and is now rated towards the tail end of the draft.

What about the rest of the crop?

The AFL draft is open for almost any male footballer who was 18 or older in 2019 to nominate themselves, with the nomination forms available online.

For the 2019 draft, 843 players from across the nation threw up their hand, from star 30-year-old Gerrard Cunningham of the Mininera and District Football League (and the Tiwi Islands) to Connor Tilyard from Victorian junior club Eastern Ranges, who scraped into the draft by just one day.

The candidates for this year's draft represent the ever-increasing national spread of the game.

More players in the draft are like Tilyard than they are Cunningham, with young players dominating the nominations. Regardless of age, most won't hear their names called this week, with only 87 primary list spots available across the rest of the league.

Over the past four years, clubs have opted to leave an average of 15 list spots vacant, in order to list extra rookie-listed players. As a result, expect around 70 draft selections to be taken in the national draft.

A reason for this is that clubs save around $80,000 towards a club's total player payment cap per vacant primary list spot. The other key reasons are that some clubs will save spots to pick up players in the rookie draft or post draft supplementary selection period (SSP), which is open until just before the 2020 season kicks off.

Further complicating matters for new players is the increasing trend of delisting players and relisting them later as rookies, to generate draft picks primarily for academy and father-son bid matching purposes. This limits the real number of AFL list spots available to emerging talent.

How the CPD is put together

As the football industry has become more professional over the years, so has the media reporting on the industry. In the early days of player recruitment football departments would be lucky to have more than one staff member tabbed with the responsibility of working out who their club should pick up and how.

Likewise, few in the media used to specialise in the dark arts of player recruitment and retention, whereas now it is a firm part of the media landscape.

To most, these are known as mock or phantom drafts, exercises in working out where the new crop of talent will end up. It's part talent evaluation and part old-school journalism, relying on sources for good information and discarding the bad.

The best at it turn a media gig into a full-time football department job (such as former reporter Emma Quayle, who moved from The Age to GWS), while others turn a passion into a media gig, such as Chris Doerre or Matt Balmer — both former amateurs — who are now with ESPN and Fox Footy respectively.

For the 2019 CPD, the following sources have been used:

Chris Doerre (ESPN), Josh Elliot (The Roar), Matt Balmer (Fox Footy), Jordan McArdle (The West Australian), Chris Cavanagh (Herald Sun), Tom Basso (Mongrel Punt), AFL Draft Central, Michael Alvaro (Geelong Advertiser), Jordan Pinto and Andrew Capel (The Advertiser), Cal Twomey (AFL), Daniel Cherney (The Age).

Generally, Twomey, Doerre and Balmer have been the most accurate of this crop in previous years, but there always tends to be a surprise lurking around the corner.