NOAA just released threat simulations for the oil spill, assuming a 33,000 barrels ber day spill that lasts for 90 days (via SkyTruth). Simulations show an 80% chance damage will round the tip of Florida. There is a 20% chance oil will make it all the way up to Charleston, SC, and west to Corpus Christi Texas. In the worst scenario -- less than 1% chance -- oil could spread down to southern Mexico and engulf the Caribbean islands.

The simulation confirms frightening projections from South Florida College, which had been dismissed by officials we talked to in South Carolina.

See NOAA's latest projections -->