Trendlines

Unbroken long and short (dashed orange and yellow, respectively) term trendlines. The price is approaching the short term one, which when broken should take it to the bottom of the channel (green and orange dashed lines).

Retracements

If this is the top of the current leg (4769) then reversal should happen soon, the most likely retracement for the next leg down seem to be 50% (~3340), near October 2nd:

If we topped out already.

If the top is 5000, with a top near September 11th (close to where the short term trendline (yellow) crosses the top of the channel (dashed green)), the most likely retracement seem to be 50% (~3400) with a floor near October 16th, or 61.8% (~3800) with a floor near November 6th:

If the top is yet to come (5000).

This looks less likely with the short term trend losing steam, as we’ll analyse later.

Please notice that this is a 1 week chart, so a target date wrong by 1 candle is wrong by 1 week!

Either way, it seems that we’re going well bellow 4000 on the next 2 months.

Candlesticks

This leg up has much more inconsistent candles compared to the previous one, this means a less stable, maybe more “mania”, leg up with lots of profit taking and shake outs.

Ichimoku

The kumo is going up on a staircase pattern where the horizontal part of the steps (yellow) are consolidation/correction legs and the vertical part (green) are uptrend legs. This reveals that we are already on a consolidation/correction leg and price should drop significantly (like on previous yellow squares) throughout next month:

The kumo has a staircase pattern.

This is our biggest evidence of the coming leg down and matches pretty well our retracement scenario where the top is at 4769 and the floor at 3340 near October 2nd.

MAs

Price is well above the 26 week MA and should start a movement to reapproach it at the bottom of the channel.

Bollinger Bands

The price has been at the top of the Bollinger Bands for a while now. The bands are very expanded, with the width above 1.0, so we should soon see a correction to a place near the middle of the bands, which would lead it to a long overdue recompression to ~0.6:

Bollinger Bands width lower high.

Stochastic RSI

Stoch RSI is decreasing in slope and currently at ~67 (near the top of two previous peaks) which signals that it might not get to the overbought zone (> 80) on this leg. As the K (blue) line starts to approach the D line (orange) they should eventually cross and price should start to go down:

Stoch topping out?

This is not yet confirmed though, as the current candle is not yet closed.

MACD

The MACD is way up and still pointing up (no surprise as it’s a lagging indicator), the histogram shows that the lines are starting to decelerate though:

Wow.

This is the indicator that best shows how crazy this run up looks.

Volume & OBV

The red candle 2 weeks ago had huge volume (the highest ever) showing high seller activity and the previous one (green) had a much lower volume. OBV is still going up but shows some bearish divergence with the price (the price made a higher high while OBV is making a lower high) and could drop sharply as it usually does on legs down:

Will it hold?

If this trendline is broken this could mean a longer leg down.

ADX

ADX is showing a bearish divergence with the price and is under 50 for the first time in a while, meaning a weakening short term trend:

Double top?

Conclusion

I think that this leg up is very near (as in “weekly chart near”) it’s end and I’m bearish for October/November. I expect a sharp leg down with a floor in the area of ~3400 at the bottom of the channel. The catalyst for this drop could be the coming Segwit2x hard fork in November. Stay alert.