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Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 65 65/70 40 55+ 55 80

Background: Deep bloodlines: Lux’s uncle, Augie Schmidt, was considered one of the top prospects available in the 1982 draft. A dynamic infielder out of the University of New Orleans, Schmidt was taken by the Blue Jays with the second overall pick that year, directly behind Shawon Dunston and ahead of several notable players including: Dwight Gooden, Spike Owen, Duane Ward, Todd Worrell, Ron Karkovice, and Sam Horn. As for Lux, the 20th overall player chosen in 2016, he’s already made a strong case that he was one of the top players available that year. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound middle infielder began to show some offensive promise during his professional debut as he slugged an aggregate .296/.375/.399 between the Arizona Summer and Pioneer Leagues. His production stumbled noticeably during his sophomore campaign as he cobbled together a disappointing .244/.331/.362 with 14 doubles, eight triples, seven homeruns, and 27 stolen bases. Undeterred by the speed bump, the front office bounced the lefty-swinging infielder up to the California League. Lo and behold, Lux’s production came roaring back: in 88 games with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, he slugged a scorching .324/.396/.520. And that stat line was nearly identical during a late season promotion up to Class AA as well (.324/.408/.495). Last season Lux returned to the Texas League with remarkable consistency (.313/.375/.521). His numbers exploded during a 49-game stretch in the offensive-friendly Pacific Coast League as he walloped the competition to the tune of .392/.478/.719. He capped off his wildly successful year with a solid 23-game stint with the Dodgers in which he batted .240/.305/.400.

Scouting Report: First and foremost: how’d he fare against left-handers in 2019? He hit a healthy – and career best – .299/.355/.485, though his peripherals remain a bit concerning in a limited sample size (4.7% walk rate and a 31.8% strikeout rate). But…it’s progress. Important progress. With respect to his work in Class AAA last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 21-year-old hitters posted a DRC+ total of at least 160 with a double-digit walk rate and a strikeout rate below 20% in the Pacific Coast League (min. 200 PA): Kyle Tucker and – of course – Gavin Lux. And for the record: Lux’s production was a whopping 16-percentage points greater than Tucker’s mark.

Above-average to plus tools across the board. As Lux’s performance improves against lefties, his ceiling continues to rise. He’s burgeoning star. Above-average patience, plus hit tool, plus-plus in-game power, above-average speed, and a strong glove. In terms of offensive ceiling think: Ketel Marte’s 2019 season in which he slugged .329/.389/.592.

Ceiling: 7.0-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019

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2. Dustin May, RHP

FB CB CU CH Command Overall 65 60 70 50 65 60

Background: The great state of Texas is known for its ability to breed big, burly, hard-throwing hurlers. The likes of Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Kerry Wood, Josh Beckett, and Noah Syndergaard immediately jump to the forefront of many minds. And May, a lanky 6-foot-6, 180-pound right-hander from Justin, Texas, is ready to claim his place among the most notable Texans. A third round pick out of Justin High School four years ago, May, who the 101st overall selection, has continued to showcase an elite arsenal with pinpoint control/command. May began his domination as an 18-year-old in the Arizona Summer League as he posted a 34-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30.1 innings during his debut. He spent the majority of his sophomore campaign flummoxing the Midwest League competition by averaging 8.3 strikeouts and just 1.9 walks per nine innings. The flame-throwing hurler split time between High Class A and Class AA two years ago, posting a strong 122-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in a 132.2 innings of work. And last season, just his fourth in the Dodgers’ organization, May twirled 15 – mostly dominant – starts in the minors’ most challenging level, Class AA, before moving up to Oklahoma City and eventually onto Los Angeles. He finished his minor league season with 106.2 innings, fanning 110 and walking just 29 to go along with a 3.38 ERA. He made another 14 appearances in the big leagues, striking out 32 and walking just five with a 3.63 ERA in 34.2 innings.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old arms to post a strikeout percentage between 25% and 27% with a walk percentage between 5% and 7% in any of the three Class AA leagues (min. 75 IP): Jose Berrios, Nick Neidert, Michael Bowden, and – of course – Dustin May.

The cutter. It’s filthy. It’s hard with late movement. And he throws it better than any minor leaguer I’ve seen since I started writing about prospects in 2013. He completely, wholeheartedly trusts the plus-plus offering and will throw it any count. I know this is going to be a bit sacrilege, but its dominance is almost Mariano Rivera-esque. But May isn’t just sporting one dominant offering. His explosive, late-lifed fastball sits in the mid-90s with ease and it plays up given his long limbs and stride. His curveball’s a true 12-6 hammer. And he’ll mix in a solid mid-80s changeup that flashes above-average at times. And then there’s the pinpoint accuracy. He’s not just a strike-thrower; he’s a quality strike-thrower. May has a chance to ascend towards true pitching stardom. And he’s only scratching the surface of his potential.

Ceiling: 5.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019

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3. Keibert Ruiz, C

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50/60 40/50 30 50 50+ 60

Background: The Dodgers have a lengthy, impressive history of talented catchers: Roy Campanella, Mike Piazza, John Roseboro, Mike Scioscia, Steve Yeager, Russell Martin, Paul LoDuca, and Yasmani Grandal immediately jump to the forefront of my mind. And Ruiz, a young, baby-faced switch-hitter, is poised to become the next great Dodger backstop. Signed out of Valencia, Venezuela during the summer of 2014. Since then he’s quickly – and efficiently – moved through the Dodgers’ farm system like a shark’s fin cutting through the ocean. Ruiz torched the Dominican Summer League pitching, hitting a hearty .300/.340/.387 as a 16-year-old. The 6-foot, 200-pound catcher slugged .354/.393/.503 in 48 games in the Pioneer League in 2016. And he didn’t miss a beat as he split time between the Midwest and California Leagues the following season. Two years ago Ruiz acquitted himself as a potent, middle-of-the-lineup thumper in the Texas League, batting .268/.328/.401 – as a 19-year-old. Ruiz opened up last season back in Class AA – though the numbers declined down to .254/.329/.330. He spent an additional nine games with Tulsa before an injury – a fractured right pinkie finger – prematurely ended his season.

Scouting Report: There’s an artificially concerning trend in Ruiz’s production line: his performances declined in each of the past three seasons. But, of course, he (A) is playing the most rigorous position on a field, (B) against vastly older competition, and (C) his batted ball data and peripherals remain remarkably strong. FanGraphs’ data shows he averaged 88 mph on his exit velocity. And he whiffed in less than 7% of his plate appearances last season. Ruiz’s power is still largely untapped, grading out a present 40, though he has a future 50. He’s still a budding star, though his position, age, and level of competition have dulled his production line.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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4. Diego Cartaya, C

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50/55 45/55 20 50 55 55

Background: One of the club’s biggest international free agent expenditures two years ago; the Dodgers signed the 6-foot-2, 199-pound backstop to a hefty $2.5 million deal. Cartaya, a native of Maracay, Venezuela, made his pro debut last season. After a brief trip through the foreign rookie league, Cartaya settled in for 36 games in the Arizona Summer League, slugging an impressive .296/.353/.437 with 10 doubles and three triples. Per Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, his production in the stateside rookie league by 26% – a solid showing for a 17-year-old.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only three 17-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the Arizona Summer League (min. 150 PA): a 120 to 130 DRC+ with a walk percentage between 6% and 9%. Those three hitters: Kristian Robinson, Jhonkensy Noel, and Diego Cartaya.

Big time pull power. Cartaya shows an incredibly low maintenance swing and keeps his hands inside the well. Smooth. Based on foot speed alone, Cartaya’s – maybe – a 35 runner. The young backstop looks like the he’s going to move quickly. Plus-throwing arm, both in terms of accuracy and arm strength. He’s going to break out in a big way in 2020.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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5. Tony Gonsolin, RHP

FB CB SL SF Command Overall 60 60 50 65 45 55

Background: Fun Pact Part I: During his four seasons at St. Mary’s College of California Gonsolin tallied a career ERA of 4.06 while averaging just 7.3 strikeouts and 4.0 walks per nine innings. Fun Fact Part II: During the same time the former two-way star slugged an impressive .305/.383/.453 in 774 plate appearances, belting out 32 doubles, 17 triples, and 11 homeruns while also stealing 21 bags. Los Angeles selected the 6-foot-3, 205-pound athlete in the ninth round, 281st overall, four years ago and they slowly converted him into a full time starting pitcher. Fast forward a couple years, and the hard-throwing right-hander handled himself well in the offensive war zone known as the Pacific Coast League and earned an 11-game cameo in the big leagues. He tossed 41.1 innings with Oklahoma City, posting a 50-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And another 40.0 innings with the Dodgers, fanning 37 and walking 15.

Scouting Report: Still sporting that gnarly facial hair and approaching hitters with his impressive, potentially mid-rotation caliber arsenal. Gonsolin’s curveball showed a bit more bite and bend than the previous year and his slider was slightly more flat. But – unfortunately – he’s caught in a numbers game as the Dodgers are running out the major’s deepest rotation – Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Julio Urias, and Alex Wood – and one of the top bullpens (Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, Pedro Baez, Adam Kolarek, Ross Stripling). And that doesn’t include top prospect Dustin May, who’s forcing the club to make a spot. I’d love to see a team like the Indians or Rays pull a trade for Gonsolin and let him rack up the innings.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019

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6. Brusdar Graterol, RHP

FB SL CH Command Overall 80 60 45 55/60 50

Background: For decades – and decades ­– the Twins’ pitching philosophy was centered around crafty, make-‘em-put-it-play, soft-tossing hurlers. Guys like Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, Eric Milton, and Joe Mays were norm. But over the past several seasons the paradigm shifted in the way the club approached young arms. They began to horde hard throwing, blow-it-by-‘em youngsters. And no one better personifies that than Brusdar Grateral, the Zeus-ian right-hander who flicks lightning bolts from the sky with the ferocity of few men. The behemoth 6-foot-1, 265-pound right-hander began to come into his own following his return from Tommy John surgery in 2017. He dominated the stateside rookie leagues by averaging 10.1 strikeouts and just 2.9 walks per nine innings that season. He split the following year with Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, tallying an absurd 107-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 102.0 innings of work. The then 20-year-old began the 2019 season in Pensacola’s rotation, but after returning from a two-plus month absence he was shifted into a relief role in order to help the big league club down the stretch – and, boy, did he. Graterol posted a 10-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 9.2 big league innings. Dodgers shipped right-hander Kenta Maeda to the Twins in exchange for Graterol and minor league outfielder Luke Raley.

Scouting Report: The fastball is easily amongthe best in baseball. Graterol’s heater, which was already a plus-plus weapon as a starter, averaged 99.0 mph during his debut. But it’s just not the velocity alone; it’s the movement. It darts and cuts and dives and fades. If there were a grade on the scouting scale above an 80, it would certainly be applied here. His slider, an upper 80s offering, is tightly wound with cutter-like movement. And the flame-throwing youngster commands it especially well. He pretty much scrapped the changeup as a reliever, which isn’t a surprise. In terms of relief value, only two relievers – Liam Hendricks and Kirby Yates – topped the 3.0-fWAR threshold in 2019. Graterol has a similar ceiling. One final thought: personally, I’d really love to see the organization push him back to the rotation; the below ceiling, though, is based on the assumption that the move won’t happen.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player (as a reliever)

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019

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7. Josiah Gray, RHP

FB SL CH Command Overall 60 50/55 50 55 50

Background: Gray, a 6-foot-1, 190-pound athlete out of LeMoyne College, became one of the trendy picks of the 2018 draft. A former two-way guy that…well…couldn’t really hit and didn’t have a ton of experience on the mound prior to his junior season. But the hard-throwing right-hander’s draft stock shot through the roof with each passing start. After posting a 1.25 ERA across 13 starts and a sparkling 105-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio, the Reds drafted Gray in the second round two years ago. Roughly seven months later Cincinnati flipped the young hurler to the Dodgers as part of the massive six-player deal involving Alex Wood, Matt Kemp, Homer Bailey, Kyle Farmer, and fellow top prospect Jeter Downs. Last season, Gray rocketed through three separate levels as he averaged 10.2 strikeouts and just 2.1 walks per nine innings across 26 appearances. He tallied a 2.28 ERA in 130.0 innings of work.

Scouting Report: Anchored by a mid-90s fastball, Gray moved efficiently through five Low Class A starts, 12 High Class A appearances, and settled in at the Texas League for another nine games. Plus 94- to 95-mph fastball. Gray’s slider was a bit inconsistent during the couple games I saw last season, regularly flashing above-average though he struggled with finishing it. His changeup’s firm, but shows some fade. As it stands, the arsenal’s not very well-rounded. It’s fastball/slider heavy – though everything plays up thanks to his strong feel for the strike zone. The Dodgers develop pitchers as well as any organization, so an uptick in his secondary offerings (A) wouldn’t be shocking and (B) something I’m banking on. With respect to his work in High Class A, his longest stretch at a level last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old hurlers to post a strikeout percentage between 29% and 31% with a sub-6.0% walk percentage in any High Class A league (min. 50 IP): Brent Honeywell, Rafael Montero, Edwin Escobar, and Josiah Gray.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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8. Miguel Vargas, 3B

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50/55 40/55 35/30 50 50 50

Background: Signed for a paltry sum of $300,000 after defecting from his native homeland of Cuba, Vargas, who hails from La Habana, put on an offensive display during three abbreviated stops in his debut season. He slugged a hearty .330/.404/.465 with 15 doubles, three triples, a pair of homeruns, and seven stolen bases in 53 games between the Arizona Summer, Pioneer, and Midwest Leagues. Last season Vargas ripped the Low Class A pitching as he returned to the Midwest League, slugging .325/.399/.464 with 20 doubles, two triples, and five homeruns. The front office bumped him up to High Class A in early July. Vargas hit a respectable .284/.353/.408 during his 54-game stint with Rancho Cucamonga.

Scouting Report: With respect to his work in High Class A last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the California League (min. 200 PA): a 122 to 132 DRC+ with a walk percentage between 8% and 11%. Those three hitters: Cody Bellinger, Domingo Santana, and – of course – Miguel Vargas.

A few additional notes:

Cody Bellinger owns a 134 DRC+ in 450 big league games. And Santana is sporting a 102 DRC+ in 492 games.

Vargas, by the way, owns the best contact rate among the group; he whiffed in just 17% of his plate appearances.

One of the more underrated prospects in the minor leagues. Vargas continues to showcase the type of skills – offensive and defensive – to be a perennial All-Star caliber third baseman. Solid patience, phenomenal bat-to-ball skills. And Vargas, who stands 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, hasn’t even tapped into his in-game power. There’s 20-homer potential here. In terms of ceiling think .290/.350/.460.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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9. Kody Hoese, 3B

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50 55 30 55 50 50

Background: One of the rare draft-eligible sophomores that pop up each season; the Kansas City Royals took a flier on the then-20-year-old third baseman in the 35th round two years ago. And it looks like the Royals’ scouting staff knew something the rest of the baseball world didn’t: Tulane University slugger Kody Hoese was on the precipice of stardom. A two-time All-Indiana selection as a junior and senior at Griffith High School, Hoese, who was ranked the top shortstop in the state by Prep-Baseball Report and Perfect Game, struggled mightily during his first season with the Green Wave: in 44 games for first-year Head Coach Travis Jewett, the 6-foot-4, 200-pound infielder batted a paltry .213/.287/.279 with just seven extra-base knocks (six doubles and a dinger) in 44 games. Hoese, a native of Griffith, Indiana, had a bit of a coming out party during his follow up sophomore campaign: in 58 games he slugged a healthy .291/.368/.435 with 13 doubles, a pair of triples, and five homeruns while showing solid peripherals at the dish; he posted a 33-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 262 plate appearances. He spent the ensuing summer playing for the Newport Gulls in the New England Collegiate League, batting .283/.370/.493 with 11 doubles and seven homeruns. But that surge in power only proved to be a harbinger of things to come. In a career-high tying 58 games, the wiry third baseman slugged an impressive .391/.486/.779 triple-slash line while setting career highs in doubles (20), homeruns (23), and walk rate (13.6%). Los Angeles drafted him in the first round, 25th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2,740,300 – the full slot value. Hoese split his debut between rookie ball and Low Class A, batting .299/.380/.483 with eight doubles, two triples, and five homers.

Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Hoese heading into the draft last season:

“Consider the following:

Breaking the group down: there are three first round picks (Peterson, Benintendi, and Lewis and a fourth that is a lock to join them in 2019 (Vaughn). Dewees and Stafford were taken in the second and third rounds, respectively. Krizan was an eighth round pick by the Tigers in 2011. And Moses was a late round flier by the Braves in 2012. Let’s approach it in a different way. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2018, there are 44 instances in which a Division I hitter slugged at least 20 homeruns in a year. Of those 44 instances, only two hitters have fanned in less than 12% of their respective plate appearances: Andrew Benintendi and Andrew Vaughn.

That’ll do… Hoese shows an incredibly rare – obviously – combination of power, patience, and bat-to-ball skills. He owns a simple, smooth right-handed swing and keeps his hands inside the ball well. The Phillies snagged Alec Bohm with the third overall pick last June and Hoese owns a significantly higher ceiling. If the defense grades out as average, he could be a perennial All-Star.”

I may have been a little overly optimistic about Hoese’s ceiling (as compared to Bohm), but he’s a player.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45/50 45/50 35 60 50 50

Background: Highly ranked among all Minnesota prep prospects coming out of high school; Perfect Game listed the lefty-swinging infielder / outfielder as the No. 1 shortstop and No. 3 overall player in the state a couple years ago. A 2016 Perfect Game High Honorable Mention All-American following his senior season at Simley High School, Busch looked underwhelming during his first go-round against collegiate pitching: appearing in 55 games for the Tar Heels, the Inner Grove Heights native batted a lowly .215/.349/.341 with eight doubles and a trio of homeruns as a true freshman. Things began to click offensively for him during his tour through the Northwoods League the following summer, though. In 49 games with the St. Cloud Rox, Busch batted a respectable .291/.426/.500 with 17 doubles, one triple, and four homeruns. Listed at 6 feet and 207 pounds, the lefty-swinging Busch carried that offensive momentum into his sophomore campaign for the ACC powerhouse: in 64 games for long-time Head Coach Mike Fox, he slugged an impressive .317/.465/.521 with 10 doubles and 13 homeruns to go along with eight stolen bases in nine attempts. Busch spent the ensuing summer playing for the Chatham Anglers in the premier Cape Cod League, looking quite comfortable against some of the elite college-age pitching. In 27 games, he batted .322/.450/.567 with 10 extra-base hits and a 17-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Last season Busch’s production maintained status quo: he batted .284/.436/.547with a career high in doubles (14) and homeruns (16). The Dodgers drafted him in the opening round, 31st overall, and signed him to a full slot bonus worth $2,312,000.

Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Hoese heading into the draft last season:

“Lacking the prototypical size and/or power projection for a first base or corner outfield prospect. Busch, nonetheless, owns an above-average hit tool, 15-homer power potential, and strong on-base peripherals. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2018, here’s the list of ACC hitters to post a .280/.440/.550 with at least a walk rate of at least 17% and a strikeout rate below 15% (min. 200 PA): James Ramsey, Mike Papi, Will Craig (twice), Seth Beer (three times), and Josh Stowers.

The good news: Ramsey, Papi, Craig, and Beer were all selected in the first round. And Stowers, the lone “outlier”, was taken in the second round, 54th overall, last season. The bad news: Ramsey, Papi, and Craig have failed to live up to their lofty draft expectations. Beer and Stowers are only entering their second professional seasons, by the way, so the jury’s still out. Busch looks like a solid fourth outfielder-type at full maturity.”

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.