Comcast yesterday claimed that it will invest more than $50 billion in infrastructure over the next five years because of the repeal of net neutrality rules and the new tax overhaul.

But the numbers show that Comcast's investments soared while the net neutrality rules were in place and would hit the "new" milestone if its investments continued increasing by a modest amount.

Comcast's announcement yesterday said the following:

Based on the passage of tax reform and the FCC's action on broadband, Brian L. Roberts, Chairman and CEO of Comcast NBCUniversal, announced that the Company would award special $1,000 bonuses to more than one hundred thousand eligible frontline and non-executive employees. Roberts also announced that the Company expects to spend well in excess of $50 billion over the next five years investing in infrastructure to radically improve and extend our broadband plant and capacity, and our television, film and theme park offerings.

Big investment increases under net neutrality rules

How does $50 billion over five years compare to what Comcast already spends on infrastructure? The company's quarterly earnings reports answer that question.

In Q3 2017, the most recent quarter, Comcast's capital expenditures were $2.4 billion. Continuing to spend at that rate, even if Comcast doesn't increase spending to account for inflation, would push Comcast to $9.6 billion a year or $48 billion over the next five years.

Spending patterns can vary by quarter, however, so it may be more instructive to look at Comcast's capital investments over the past 12 months.

In the most recent four quarters combined (Q4 2016 through Q3 2017), Comcast spent $9.4 billion on capital investments. (Q4 2016 was the high point at $2.6 billion.) Continuing to spend $9.4 billion annually without any inflation-related increases would result in $47 billion over the next five years, a few billion below the "new" target.

But based on previous years, Comcast's spending likely would increase regardless of whether the net neutrality repeal and tax cut happened. In the 12 months ending September 30, 2014, Comcast's capital investments were $7.2 billion. Over the next 12 months, leading up to September 30, 2015, the spending rose to $8.1 billion.

The net neutrality rules took effect in June 2015. Though Comcast and other ISPs claim in some public statements that the rules suppressed investment, Comcast's annual capital expenditures continued to increase, hitting $9.2 billion in the four quarters ending September 30, 2016.

Thus, if Comcast continues increasing capital expenditures by the same rate as it did with net neutrality rules in place, the company would easily break the $50 billion figure that Roberts attributed to the net neutrality repeal and tax break.

Industry-wide, cable broadband speeds soared during the years net neutrality rules were in place.

Investment is tied to technology upgrade cycles

Comcast's recent spending history shows that it increases capital investments because of factors other than the presence or absence of net neutrality rules or tax breaks. When Comcast's capital expenditures related to cable increased 7.9 percent in calendar year 2016, the company said the change "primarily reflect[ed] increased investment in line extensions, a higher level of investment in scalable infrastructure to increase network capacity, and continued spending on customer premise equipment related to the deployment of the X1 platform and wireless gateways."

Spending increases at Comcast's NBCUniversal division "primarily reflect[ed] increased spending at our Theme Parks," Comcast said.

Cable lobby claims that investment was suppressed by net neutrality rules were eagerly accepted by FCC Chairman Ajit Pai when he led last week's vote to repeal net neutrality rules. But when talking to investors—to whom public companies are required to provide accurate information about risk factors—Comcast and other ISPs have admitted that the rules did no quantifiable harm.

"In December 2016, Comcast's chief financial officer admitted to investors that any concerns it had about reclassification were based only on "the fear of what Title II [net neutrality rules] could have meant, more than what it actually meant," a report by Free Press noted.

When ISPs ask for handouts

When ISPs are asking the government for a specific policy change—such as the repeal of a regulation or a tax break—they are quick to claim that the desired policy will lead to more investment.

AT&T, for example, announced last month that it would invest "an additional $1 billion" if Congress passes tax reform. With the tax reform now passed by Congress, AT&T said yesterday that it will move ahead with that $1 billion increase.

But neither one of those AT&T announcements said what the exact level of investment would have been if the tax bill wasn't passed.

And in 2010, AT&T told the FCC that capital expenditures are based on technology upgrade cycles rather than government policy. At the time, AT&T was asking the FCC for a favor—the company wanted a declaration that the wireless market is competitive, a finding that can influence how the FCC regulates wireless carriers.

To make that argument, AT&T said that the FCC shouldn't interpret year-to-year investment changes as evidence that the market isn't competitive.

"There is no reason to expect capital expenditures to increase by the same amount year after year," AT&T said at the time. "Capital expenditures tend to be 'lumpy.' Providers make significant expenditures to upgrade and expand their networks in one year (e.g., perhaps because a new generation of technology has just been introduced), and then focus the next year on signing up customers and integrating those new facilities into their existing networks, and then make additional capital expenditures later, and so on."