EDITOR'S NOTE: Interested in the marijuana business industry? NJ Cannabis Insider is a new premium intelligence briefing that features exclusive weekly content geared toward entrepreneurs, lawyers and realtors. View a sample issue.

Few things compel New Yorkers to cross the Hudson River into the Garden State. They might come to visit the Jersey Shore or catch a Giants game.



Marijuana advocates think New Yorkers would also come for weed, filling PATH trains and tunnels to legally buy marijuana. But that's only if New Jersey beats its neighbor to market.

While New Jersey maintains a healthy lead over New York in progress toward legalizing marijuana, the gap isn't as insurmountable as it once seemed. If New Jersey can't get an adult-use market up and running before New York, it could lose out on millions of dollars, according to people close to the industry.

"New York getting into the driver seat on this would pull away from the benefits that New Jersey would be able to realize," said Daniel McKillop, an attorney with Scarinci Hollenbeck who is advising clients in the cannabis space. "There will be a big detriment to the state that finishes second."

A few months ago, the thought that New York might be able to launch a legal weed market ahead of Jersey was laughable. The Empire State had a governor long opposed to recreational marijuana and New Jersey had just elected Gov. Phil Murphy, who ran partly on a legalization platform.

What a difference six months makes.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo commissioned a study on marijuana legalization and has softened his stance on legal weed, due in no small part to his gubernatorial opponent Cynthia Nixon, who fully supports legal weed.

The study Cuomo commissioned was released this month and recommended that New York make marijuana legal, saying the benefits of legalization vastly outweigh potential risks.

Pennsylvania also recently released a report that projected $580 million in annual tax revenues from legal marijuana, though that state seems further away from legalization.

On this side of the border, Murphy remains a vocal supporter of legalization, but just emerged from a bruising budget season that saw no movement for bills on medical marijuana expansion or full legalization, and it's not clear when any action on recreational marijuana could come.

Up for grabs are millions of potential marijuana customers who advocates say wouldn't think twice about hopping across the George Washington Bridge to buy weed in Jersey.

In 2016, New Jersey Policy Perspective and New Jersey United for Marijuana Reform combined to write a paper that estimated the Garden State could make $300 million in annual tax revenue on recreational marijuana. Those projections were based on some New Yorkers and Pennsylvanians coming over to buy weed.

But that only happens if New Jersey can legalize marijuana first.

"It would be somewhat significant because people who would have come through New York wouldn't have to anymore," said Brian Staffa, a New Jersey-based cannabis consultant. "It would limit the number of people who would come across the border."

But Staffa said that he doesn't think New York legalizing marijuana first would strike a devastating blow to New Jersey's fledgling industry.

"New Jersey is still too great an opportunity to pull out of," he said, adding that Jersey would still be the second biggest market on the East Coast."I think it would be a detrimental effect to every other market. I think it'd be a huge detriment to Massachusetts," which just went fully legal this month.

Still, New York remains several steps behind Jersey on the path to legal weed. No bills have advanced in New York, and the state's Legislature doesn't return until January.

Some advocates think the recent public surge in support in New York could catalyze Jersey's efforts.

"I'm not overly concerned with New York's market. Hopefully that will convince lawmakers here to support it," said Scott Rudder, president of the New Jersey CannaBusiness Association, a trade organization.

"It would be better if we got off the ground first," Rudder said. "Businesses would do better, tax revenue would be greater, jobs would be greater. But that would level out once other states come online."

When lawmakers will return to Trenton to debate marijuana remains unclear, as does which plan they'll consider. Senate President Stephen Sweeney, D-Gloucester, had previously said he wanted to reconvene in late July, but nothing concrete has been scheduled.

State Sen. Nicholas Scutari, D-Union, last month introduced a recreational marijuana bill that remains the prevailing plan, but advocates had several complaints. Assemblyman Jamel Holley, D-Union, has since proposed several amendments to that bill.

For its part, the Murphy administration isn't focused on beating New York to market but rather making sure they get the law right, said a spokeswoman.

"The governor is committed to working with the Legislature to legalize adult-use marijuana the right way, one that makes the state fairer, prioritizes the safety of New Jersey residents, and ensures that some of the economic benefits go the communities hardest hit by the war on drugs," said Alyana Alfaro, a press aide to the governor.

The ambiguous timeline has left potential business owners wondering when and if New Jersey lawmakers will legalize marijuana.

Tara Sargente, owner of Blazin' Bakery, plans to apply for a license to expand her herbal brownie company into a full line of marijuana edibles. She said she wants to be based in New Jersey, but she hopes to see some signal of progress soon.

When asked if she would consider launching her business in New York if it were to legalize marijuana first, Sargente said, "I could see it happening to me and other people at a certain point."



"But I really don't want that to happen. I want to be here."

Are you interested in the N.J. cannabis industry? Subscribe here for exclusive insider information from NJ Cannabis Insider.

Payton Guion may be reached at PGuion@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @PaytonGuion. Find NJ.com on Facebook.