Saudi Oil Exports Drop 4.9%

Growth in domestic oil consumption in Saudi Arabia is cutting into Saudi oil exports. This trend will continue. Higher prices enable them to export less.

Saudi Arabias exports fell to 6.05 million barrels a day in December from 6.36 million in November even as Saudi production rose to a two-year high of 8.37 million barrels a day, JODI said.

Saudi oil exports have probably already peaked. Rising domestic oil consumption eats into exports. This is known in Peak Oil circles as the Export Land Model problem. Export Land is experiencing much faster consumption growth than the rest of the world. Export Land is exporting less as a result. This trend will continue.

What I expect will happen:

The peak in world oil exports will happen before the peak in world oil production.

The peak in US and other Western imports will happen before the peak in world oil exports.

Western nations are going to shift to lower energy lifestyles and spend more on technology that raises energy efficiency. India and China will displace Western nations from parts of the oil market. So Western consumption will peak sooner than China and India consumption. But their oil consumption will peak sooner than oil consumption in the big current oil exporters.