The bitcoin-US dollar (BTC/USD) exchange rate closed above the 50-day moving average yesterday – crossing a key milestone for the first time since September 13.

However, while this might be read as a bullish signal, the follow-through has not been encouraging so far. Prices fell to a low of $3,836 earlier today and were last seen trading around $3,990 levels. The 50-day moving average is located at $3,982 levels.

As per CoinMarketCap, the cryptocurrency has hardly moved in the last 24 hours.

BTC is up 4.5% on the week and month. (Indeed, the lackluster action in the cryptocurrencies is eerily similar to the one seen in equities, currencies, bonds and commodity markets at the moment.)

However, this may be a sign that investors across the various asset classes would prefer to sit on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC rate decision tomorrow. The Fed is widely expected to keep the interest rates unchanged and announce the beginning of the balance sheet taper.

What to watch

Daily chart

Bullish crossovers occur when the short-term moving average (5-day moving average) crosses or cuts the long-term moving average (10-day moving average) from below.

A bullish 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average crossover, if confirmed during the overnight trade, would help bitcoin take out resistance at $4,209 (confluence of falling trend line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

A move above $4,209 would improve the odds of bitcoin rallying to record highs. As discussed yesterday, only a drop below $3,465 (the September 17 low) would revive the bearish view.

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