An automotive consultant is raising concerns about the future of General Motors manufacturing in Canada, predicting that production at General Motors Oshawa will completely shut down in 2019.

The Oshawa facility has already seen the closure of its truck assembly plant and the consolidation of its two car assembly plants in recent years.

Assembly of the Chevrolet Camaro at the plant is slated to end in 2015, while assembly of the Chevrolet Impala and Equinox on the consolidated line, originally slated to end this year, is slated to end in 2016. A flex line, launched in 2008, continues to make the Cadillac XTS, the Buick Regal and a new Impala.

Joe McCabe, president of auto industry consulting firm AutoForecast Solutions, said last week that remaining production in Oshawa is vulnerable, predicting a possible full closure by 2019.

Unifor Local 222 president Ron Svajlenko issued a press release Thursday in response to McCabe's predictions, arguing that the falling Canadian dollar gives GM Oshawa an advantage moving forward compared to U.S. Operations.

"Unifor Local 222 remains focused on working with General Motors to maintain vehicle production in the Oshawa complex," Svajlenko stated.

"The large number of current employees who will be retirement-eligible in Oshawa provides an opportunity to introduce a significant number of new employees to Oshawa, at a distinct cost advantage for General Motors.

"The combination of the current value of the Canadian dollar with the Canadian productivity advantage (10%) and the Canadian health care cost advantage combined the opportunity to hire new employees in the entry level of a 10-year wage progression, makes the Canadian operations cost competitive with General Motors' existing U.S. operations."

Svajlenko called on the federal and provincial governments, which own about $4 billion worth of General Motors stock, to " play a proactive role in ensuring that new vehicle products are allocated to GM's Canadian operations."

In making his prediction McCabe points a domestic production agreement that expires in 2016.

In return for a multibillion-dollar bailout by the province and federal government made during the auto industry collapse, the automotive giant agreed in 2009 to keep 16% of its continental production in Canada through to 2016.

Meanwhile, Canada's share of vehicle production has been declining, with auto investment continuing to ramp up in Mexico.

Oshawa's GM production is especially vulnerable, McCabe said, with a full closure possible by 2019.

As GM vehicles and parts in Canada can be built elsewhere and products can move easily across borders in free trade agreements, it puts investment in Canada at risk -- particularly when stacked against lower-cost areas that produce the same amount of vehicles.

The proportion of GM vehicles built in Canada that are bought domestically is also low, McCabe said, and larger auto manufacturers have a natural inclination to produce where they sell.

He adds the Canadian plants always had a "value-added" boost, including "high quality, high-skilled labour."

"That factor has, and will always continue to be, a benefit to the Canadian automotive landscape," he said.

"But business is business. And if something can be built at a similar quality and be done at cheaper cost, then the numbers outweigh that benefit."

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Top of concern is Oshawa. The Cami facility in Ingersoll is No. 2, with GM's St. Catharines engine and components operations the third most at risk, he said.

"There's been no actual decisions made by General Motors," said Wayne Gates, the NDP MPP for Niagara Falls and a former leader of Unifor Local 199 representing about 1,500 GM workers in the St. Catharines area.

He said he thinks fears of the Oshawa plant closing, and Cami going to one shift, is unfounded.

He adds it's clear Canadian operations are competitive with those of the U.S. for many reasons, including a lower-value dollar and cheaper medical benefit costs.

"That said, I have a lot of worries about GM and new product allocations, including St. Catharines," Gates said. "It is essential that governments play an active role in "¦ an integrated national auto strategy."

He also said governments need to negotiate an extension to the 2016 domestic manufacturing commitment.

"It's really kept us going," he said. "We have to be proactive and can no longer sit back where we see what happens (in the plant closure) in Windsor. It makes no sense we're sitting back knowing our Canadian operations could be in jeopardy."

Tim McKinnon, Unifor Local 199 plant chairman for St. Catharines, spoke of the continuing top quality reputation all the GM plants have in Ontario.

"We've always done the right thing, we've always come to the plate," said McKinnon, who is also union vice-chair of the master committee for GM's plants in Canada. "I believe as a whole, GM Canada -- at least as far as Unifor goes -- will continue to do the right thing to ensure it is manufacturing in Canada.

"Is there a concern? Yes," McKinnon said, "but I really believe "¦ all three plants are viable."

McCabe's predictions come just as Stephen Carlisle, who got his start with GM working in the GM Oshawa truck plant in 1983, gets set to take over as the new GM Canada president.