It is time for another look at the salary information for the Dodgers in 2019. I wrote one early last month (it has a lot of details about how the luxury tax works) but the rumor mill about signing Bryce Harper or trading for a stud starting pitcher brings the need for more discussion about the current salary posture. In 2018 the Dodgers avoided the luxury tax for the first time since 2012. There are indications that they will stay under that cap in the near future also. However, I do believe they could go over the $206M limit given the right opportunity.

2019 Salary Information

The 2019 salaries for the Dodgers as of December 15, 2018 are below. All arbitration information is an estimate from Trade Rumors. Most of the salary information is from COTS. The bWAR is Wins Above Replacement from Baseball Reference. Players like Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler are not on this list as they are all making around the league minimum for 2019. AAV is the Average Annual Value and is what is used to calculate the salaries for luxury tax purposes.

Player Notes 2018 bWAR 2019 AAV Baez, Pedro Arb-Est 0.7 $1,800,000 Cingrani, Tony Arb-Est -0.2 $2,650,000 Freese, David 1/$5M 2.1 $5,000,000 Fields, Josh Arb-Est 0.9 $2,800,000 Garcia, Yimi Arb-Est -0.7 $900,000 Hernandez, Enrique Arb-Est 2.8 $3,200,000 Hill, Rich 3/$48M 1.3 $16,000,000 Jansen, Kenley 5/$80M 0.6 $16,000,000 Kelly, Joe 3/$25M 0.5 $8,333,333 Kemp. Matt 8/$160M 1.1 $20,000,000 Kershaw, Clayton 3/$93M + inc. 4 $31,000,000 Maeda, Kenta 8/$25M + inc. 0.4 $3,125,000 Pederson, Joc Arb-Est 2.3 $4,300,000 Puig, Yasiel Arb-Est 2.7 $11,300,000 Ryu, Hyun-Jin QO 2.6 $17,900,000 Seager, Corey Arb-Est 0.4 $2,600,000 Taylor, Chris Arb-Est 4.1 $3,200,000 Turner, Justin 4/$64M 4.5 $16,000,000 Utley, Chase 2/$2M -0.2 $1,000,000 Wood, Alex Arb-Est 1 $9,000,000 Kemp Trade To Padres $3,500,000 Club Control $3,950,000 40 Man Minors $2,250,000 Player Benefits $14,500,000 Total $200,308,333 CBA Tax Threshold $206,000,000 Amount Under Threshold $5,691,667 Draft Pick Penalty $246,000,000 Amount Under Penalty $45,691,667

The “Amount Under Threshold” is the amount before tax penalties begin. The “Amount Under Penalty” is the amount before they start losing draft positions.

2019 Salary Ramifications

As is it plain to see,the Dodgers are only about $5.7M away from the tax threshold. The main differences between my previous article and now is that Hyun-Jin Ryu accepted the $17.9M qualifying offer, and Joe Kelly looks to have been signed for an AAV of $8.33M. If the Dodgers are going to do anything big, they will need to get back into the tax penalties. The penalties have been reset and it is time to get back into improving this team without this boundary. The qualifying offers and the signing of Joe Kelly leads me to think they are willing to go over. Even if they are willing to go into the salary penalty, players like Bryce Harper, Corey Kluber or Francisco Cervelli aren’t cheap.

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Key Money Expiring After 2019

A big factor isn’t just 2019 but the future after that. Players like Corey Seager, Walker Buehler and Cody Bellinger will see their salaries escalate as they head into their arbitration years. Some key salaries off the books after 2019 are:

David Freese – $5M

Rich Hill – $16M

Matt Kemp – $20M

Yasiel Puig – ~$11.3M

Hyun-Jin Ryu – $17.9M

Chase Utley – $1M

Alex Wood – ~$9M

That totals up to $80.2M off the books in 2020. Of course, some arbitration decisions will reduce that number so let’s assume $65M off the books for next year.

Reducing in 2019

By looking at the above tables, just about any player is trade bait except the following, in my opinion:

Kenley Jansen – $16M

Clayton Kershaw – $31M

Hyun-Jin Ryu – $17.9M – not eligible to be traded until 6/15/19

Corey Seager – ~$2.6M

Justin Turner – $16M

Cody Bellinger – almost minimum

Walker Buehler – almost minimum

Julio Urías – almost minimum

I included the last 3 for some completeness but they don’t impact the total AAV for 2019 much at all.

The Rumor Mill

Some prominent names that are in the rumor mill due to the Dodger wanting to offload some contracts and remove some overcrowding:

Rich Hill – $16M

Matt Kemp – $20M

Joc Pederson – ~$4.3M

Yasiel Puig – ~$11.3M

Alex Wood – ~$9M

All these players are well liked by fans and some are beloved. My purpose here isn’t to advocate for getting rid of any of these players, just to figure out how Andrew Friedman and Company might handle this. I did write about how some players would benefit from a change of scenery to better their careers. Below I’ll offer some possibilities for reducing the salary hit.

Some Difficulties

In most cases other teams would not take on the full salaries of Matt Kemp or Rich Hill which is why you hear about names like Homer Bailey coming back to the Dodgers to lesson the impact. Let’s say there is a trade with the Reds with Kemp and Bailey involved. The Dodgers would save only $2.5M in that case and I’d easily contend Kemp is far more value than Bailey. Another difficulty is that some players like Yasiel Puig or Alex Wood might not be valued by other teams like, we the fans, think they should be.

How To Keep Puig

If, as rumored, that other teams might not want Puig, I’d like the Dodgers to look into a multi-year contract for him. If they were to negotiate a 3 year/$21-24$M contract, that would lower Puig’s AAV for 2019. The Dodgers have too many outfielders that deserve to play everyday, and if they get Harper, then a plunger needs to get taken to the outfielders on the roster. The Dodgers are always looking to get best value for players and having Puig at $7-8M AAV might keep him in right field for the next three years. Just imagine having both Puig and Harper; that might be fun.

Possible Incoming Salaries

There’s not much of a point in the Dodgers unloading some salary if there aren’t some big money coming back. Some of the rumored players and their salaries from an Average Annual Value (AAV) perspective (courtesy of COTS):

Corey Kluber – $11.7M

Trevor Bauer – ~11.6M arbitration estimate

Francisco Cervelli – $10.33M

Tucker Barnhart – $4M

Homer Bailey – $17.5M

T. Realmuto – ~$6.1M arbitration estimate

Bryce Harper – ~$35-40M (free agent)

If the Dodgers want to stay under the penalty they only have about $5.7M of room. Of course, someone like Harper makes it nearly impossible to stay under the penalty but those others would allow them to stay under, given they unload some current salary.

Analysis

A point of reference, the Dodgers started the 2018 season with a team AAV of $182M and ended at $195M. It rose during the season due to the mid-season acquisitions. They will need a similar amount of room for 2019 if they plan to stay under. Given that, to stay under the cap and have room for mid-season acquisitions, the need to start 2019 at $193M. They are already at $200.31M so they could also look to offload salaries to just have that extra room.

This post is about numbers and most of us could care less about them. However, the ownership and the front office probably do or else we wouldn’t be hearing rumors about off-loading some salary. There are also a plethora of starting pitchers and outfielder so they are also dealing from a position of strength. I view Bryce Harper as a generational talent and he will get PAID by somebody. If the Dodgers want him they will have to go into the luxury tax penalties unless they find ways to unload about $40M in salary. Oh yeah, they still need another catcher, no matter what they do about Harper.

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