Castro, along with former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), who remains in the race but failed to qualify for the December debate and has, so far, failed to qualify for the January event, formed a triumvirate of relatively young contenders who could not differentiate their message from better-funded and more experienced contenders. All were overshadowed by now-former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg, who came from nowhere to rise to the top tier of contenders.

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Castro’s departure and Booker’s inability to break out cements the idea that only a handful of candidates have a realistic chance at the nomination. Fundraising results may further separate the field into realistic contenders and long shots.

Buttigieg, who raised $24.7 million in the fourth quarter and leads in many Iowa polls, will likely be on the receiving end of attacks from opponents at the Jan. 14 debate — perhaps their final shot at knocking him off course before the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses.

Less than five weeks before the first votes are cast in the 2020 Democratic primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) reports that he hauled in $34.5 million in donations during the fourth quarter, confirming that he will be a force to be reckoned with well beyond the early primary and caucus states. His success following his heart attack, both in fundraising and enthusiasm, does not mean he will break through what so far has been a low ceiling of support, mostly in the mid-20s.

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As Sanders rises, Elizabeth Warren’s prospects seem to fade. The Massachusetts senator has yet to release fundraising numbers, but do not be surprised if she comes in closer to Andrew Yang’s $16.5 million than to Sanders’s $34.5 million. Increasingly, she is on the defensive, struggling to avoid talking about Medicare-for-all (not a bad tactic considering it has become political quicksand for her), and to explain apparent hypocrisy in attacking Buttigieg for fundraising practices she employed as a senator.

Former vice president Joe Biden, to the amazement of 30-something, left-wing social media users, is also solidly positioned. Biden raised $22.7 million in the latest quarter, his best so far, and also picked up a significant endorsement from Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Iowa). Moreover, the media has awakened to the reality that despite constant heckling from the left-dominated Twitter and from the president, Biden’s broad support has remained as solid as Sanders’s. Biden is not expected to win in either Iowa or New Hampshire, but provided he comes in ahead of one or more of the top contenders in those contests, he will remain competitive.

Two other contenders are building momentum at just the right time. Iowa caucus results will be critical for Yang (who has money but poor polling results, leaving him out of the January debate) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who has yet to release money figures and has a shot to finish strongly in her neighboring state.

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In sum, we now know at least two candidates in the top tier (Buttigieg and Sanders) have the resources to take them to Super Tuesday, but Warren may not (especially if she disappoints in Iowa and New Hampshire). Klobuchar’s fate may be determined in Iowa, just as Biden’s will hinge on South Carolina. From a field of two dozen, only three or four might survive Iowa with the resources and momentum to win the nomination.