Trump made Florida’s 2018 midterm a referendum on his presidency by getting so aggressively involved in the races. | AP Photo Florida becomes 'Trump Country'

MIAMI — Florida solidified its status as Trump Country this week, reinvigorating Republicans and dispiriting Democrats as the consummate swing state sets the stage for a possible three-peat in 2020.

“I'm calling this right now: Unless Trump is getting taken down easily in his re-election, he is winning Florida in 2020. It's not a tossup. It's Lean-R,” said Matt Isbell, a Democratic data analyst based in Florida. “The Florida election map is changing under Trump. It’s the data.”


Isbell said a variety of factors that increasingly favor Republicans in Florida became clear Tuesday, chiefly the “consolidation of the conservative and white vote in Florida that started in 2016 and continued Tuesday.“ It’s not just retirees voting Republican.

“Voters in white working-class areas are becoming more conservative — and hard-line conservative — and more Republican-aligned,” Isbell said. “ And that’s erasing Democratic improvement in the suburbs.”

Like other Democrats, Isbell acknowledges that he’s having an emotional reaction to Tuesday’s election, which shocked the party almost as much as Trump’s 2016 win.

This time, Democrats were supposed to get even. This time, Florida was supposed to be washed with a blue wave. This time, voters were supposed to do what they normally do: punish the party of the president in power during his first midterm. This time, President Trump’s hard-line immigration rhetoric was supposed to help attract more independents and more Hispanics to the polls to reject his party.

But that didn’t happen.

The Democratic party’s fresh new face, Andrew Gillum, likely lost to Trump-backed Ron DeSantis. And 18-year incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson — the lone statewide elected Democrat — trailed Trump-backed Gov. Rick Scott. That race, however, is so close it’s headed to a recount. The governor’s race is precariously close as well to recount territory. The race for state agriculture commissioner will also go to a recount, as will a state Senate race and two state House races.

The close election margins, however, do give Democrats some hope. After all, the 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 top-of-the-ticket races were decided by 1.2 percentage points or fewer. The margins in the 2018 races are even tighter.

It’s also Florida, so anything can happen. And the proportion of registered Democrats, 37 percent, exceeds that of Republicans by two points.

Ryan Tyson, vice president of political operations for Republican-leaning Associated Industries of Florida, said the state is still purple and, to Republicans, the Florida Democratic Party is a threat.

“This is a diverse state. It changes year to year. Candidates matter,” Tyson said. “The party is at a financial disadvantage. It’s at a power disadvantage. And yet they’re keeping elections close.”

If the governor’s race does not go to a recount and if Scott holds on to his winning margin, Florida for the first time since Reconstruction will have no statewide elected Democrats. Republicans also control the Florida House and Senate, giving Democrats no top offices in the state to wield influence or command campaign contributions to help rebuild a party that was already struggling before Tuesday.

With Democrats completely out of power and Republicans in complete control, Trump could meet with less resistance in the Sunshine State on the 2020 campaign trail.

In recent years, Florida played a crucial firewall role in the Electoral College for Democrats. Typically, Democrats would win two of the four largest states, California and New York, while Republicans won Texas. The candidate who carried Florida’s 29 Electoral College votes — more than 10 percent of the total needed to win the White House — became president.

But Trump’s string of Midwest victories in 2016 made Florida more of a symbolic prize for the president, who winters in Palm Beach and calls Florida his second home.

Trump made Florida’s 2018 midterm a referendum on his presidency by getting so aggressively involved in the races. Starting in 2017, he repeatedly urged Scott to challenge Nelson. Against the advice of his own political advisers, Trump endorsed DeSantis in the Republican primary for governor. He also rallied repeatedly in the state, twice in the closing seven days.

“Very clearly the president himself had a lot on the line and this election shows Florida is Trump Country,” said Roger Stone, a longtime Trump adviser and Florida resident. “There’s an absolute Trump majority in the state that can be mobilized.”

Heading into 2020, Stone said, the Democrats are faced with the realization that everything they’ve tried against Trump has failed.

“Their answer is to mobilize the same people they mobilized yesterday,” Stone said. “And they fell short.”

Ashley Walker, who led the For Our Future coalition that turned out huge numbers of Democratic-leaning hard-to-reach voters for the midterm, said Tuesday was difficult but that Democrats need to remember they’ve historically done better in presidential races.

“We’ve won two of the last three presidential races,” she said. “It’s impossible to predict what happens in 2020 on the day after the 2018 midterms.”

The former chair of the Florida Democratic Party, Allison Tant, said she had a discussion with her husband about whether Florida should now be considered a Republican state. She said she’s not ready to give up yet, but acknowledged she’s still “processing” the grief of the election.

“We had great candidates. Enthusiasm huge. Turn out huge. The other side as engaged and stoked by Trump. He got his base out for his candidates ... in red meat counties where he did rallies,” she said via text message. “Dems don’t understand the appeal. But we have to stop underestimating it.”