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The study, made public Tuesday, finds the cap would reduce carbon emissions by 236 megatonnes cumulatively between 2025 and 2040, adding up to a cost of more than $1,000 for each tonne of greenhouse gases avoided by keeping the oil in the ground.

The cost is massive relative to other emissions-reduction policies, Green, senior director at the institute’s Centre for Natural Resources, said in an interview.

“You are looking at a measure that is going to cost hundreds of billions to avert a tiny amount of global greenhouse gases, a cost of more than $1,000 (a tonne), when permits are selling for $30 in B.C., and the (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s) highest social cost in 2040 is US$180 a tonne. So, by any measure, there are vastly more efficient ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

For example, he said Alberta should be working harder on sequestration, planting trees, increasing use of gas to replace coal, buying offsets in the international markets and adaptation to climate change impacts.

The NDP’s climate change plan, announced last November, caps emissions from the oilsands sector at 100 megatonnes a year, up from about 70 megatonnes today, leaving room for 30 megatonnes of growth, or an estimated one million barrels a day of incremental production unless technology to reduce emissions improves. That level of production is expected to be reached by 2025.

Without the cap, oilsands production could grow to 4.76 million b/d in 2040, up from 2.3 million barrels a day in 2014, according to National Energy Board projections. Growth would be stronger if oil prices are high, to 5.31 million b/d in 2040, and weaker if oil prices are low, reaching 3.79 million b/d in 2040.