This tool is intended to help you estimate your chance of successfully summoning ★5s in Dragalia Lost , a mobile game published by Nintendo.

Credit for this methodology and JS code goes to R9K-IC (Archaic). Prior Monte Carlo mass summon simulations also validate the statistics produced by this formula.

Pity Rates

All calculations shown account for "pity rate" mechanics used in-game:

For every ten pulls without any ★5 summons, the individual ★5 summon chance increases by 0.5 points, up to a cap of 9.0%

The summoning rates are reset after any ★5 is pulled, including wyrmprints or other ★5s that you don't want

If a 9.0% "pity rate" is reached, the next summon is guaranteed to be a ★5; this takes 100 consecutive summons on a typical banner (4% base rate), or 60 summons during Gala Dragalia (6%)

"Pity rates" do not carry over to different banners, so you always start at the base rate

Single vs Tenfold Summons

Pulling single summons instead of 10-fold is typically a slight disadvantage, even if you ignore the guaranteed ★4 from a 10-fold. This is because ★5 probabilities are fixed for each 10-fold summon, i.e. the rates do not increase or decrease for individual summons within a 10-fold, only after that 10-fold is completed. Of course, this won't make much difference unless you are sitting on an extraordinarily high pity-rate.

If you do plan on using single pulls (e.g. the daily deals or single summon vouchers), just add them to your total number of summons. This tool assumes that only ten-fold summons are pulled first, then any remaining summons are pulled individually at the end (i.e. with 64 summons, 6 ten-folds are pulled, then 4 singles). Your actual summoning strategy and number of single vouchers may vary from this assumption, but results are not materially affected; the tool will still calculate a reasonably accurate probability.

Featured ★4s

Although this tool only calculates ★5 rates, probabilities for pulling ★4s are relatively straightfoward to produce. A ★4 calculator may be considered for a future update.

Below, you can find a table of the typical cumulative rates for pulling at least one copy of the featured ★4 (1.75% displayed rate) on standard banners. This assumes that you only summon using ten-folds (to get the guaranteed ★4 and up). Note that increasing ★5 "pity rates" typically do not impact the odds of obtaining featured ★4 units.