MOLDOVA is one of Europe’s poorest countries. It has some 3.6m people, excluding the 400,000 who live in the de facto Russian-controlled, breakaway region of Transnistria. Of its workforce of 1.4m people half work abroad, according to Valeriu Lazar, the minister of economy. They used to go to southern Europe, but with less work in the ailing southern economies of the European Union many have gone to the building sites for the Olympic Games in Sochi in Russia. Their remittances account for at least a quarter of GDP. Moldova is now trying to become a place where expatriates would like to return. On November 29th at a summit meeting in Vilnius between the EU and six former Soviet republics, it will sign two major agreements that cover political cooperation, reforms and free trade. The European Commission is also set to propose visa-free travel for Moldovans to the EU’s Schengen zone. All this represents a big opportunity for Moldova. Russia is doing everything it can to sabotage it.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, wants Moldova to join the customs union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, the core of the Moscow-dominated Eurasian economic union he is planning. In September Russia banned the import of Moldovan wine, one of Moldova’s major exports. Dimitry Rogozin, a Kremlin envoy, has made threats about cutting off gas to a country that is 100% reliant on supplies from Russia.

In the contest between Russia and the EU, Moldova is small fry. The real prize is Ukraine, which is vacillating between east and west. All anyone wants to know in Chisinau is which way Ukraine will go. The fate of Moldova is dependent on the fate of Ukraine, says Igor Botan, an analyst. Iurie Leanca, the prime minister, told a group of visiting policymakers and journalists organised by the German Marshall Fund, that he does not want his country to be a “Ukrainian hostage”. For now it looks painfully like it already is.

If Ukraine signs up to similar agreements with the EU then Moldova will have much more freedom of action. If it decides to join the customs union with Russia, says Mr Leanca, it will be “more difficult for us to resist pressure.” One source of that pressure is Transnistria where Russian soldiers are stationed. The leadership of Transnistria wants Russia to recognise it. And according to Nina Shtanski, Transnistria’s foreign minister, her government is keen to join the customs union. Some 75% of Transnistria’s budget comes directly or indirectly from Russian subsidies, so it does not have much choice.

Vladimir Voronin, the leader of Moldova’s Communist Party, which is riding high in the polls, also wants his country to join the customs union. As part of the geopolitical high stakes game he claims is being played, he accuses the EU of openly supporting a government of “bandits and corrupt people”. Even so, he refuses to say whether he would tear up the Vilnius agreements if he were to come to power next year.

If Moldova and Ukraine both sign up in Vilnius the task for Moldova especially is controlling expectations, says a diplomat. Sometimes Vilnius is talked about as though it was a congress of the Soviet Communist Party “after which we will all walk away into the sunny sunset”. It wasn’t a cheerful walk then and won’t be now.