COLUMNS How important is a frustrated minority of voters?

Hood Richardson

Trump's success is a two-act play. The first act is over. That was the 2016 election. The second act will begin in January of 2018 following the primary elections for the US House and Senate. It is now obvious the present Republicans in the House and Senate do not plan to cooperate with reforms proposed by President Trump and mandated by the 2016 electorate. Trump will continue to have battles with the swamp creatures until the 2018 elections are over. The swamp creatures believe their job is to deny the Trump agenda. Do not look for real progress in Obama Care, tax reform, cutting the budget, and an infrastructure program or anything else Trump wants until the new House and Senate members are seated in early 2019.



The swamp creatures--there are many more than the House and Senate members--will continue to try to make us believe they are true Republicans but they will continue to fail. Senator John McCain and his idiot buddy Lindsey Graham will step up to the plate to stop these programs if no one else will. They will readily sacrifice themselves. After all they do not run in 2018.



The "nay sayers," along with the Democrats and the swamp dwellers, are looking toward the 2018 elections to strengthen their position just like the conservatives are (notice I did not say Republicans). It will no doubt be a Battle Royale.



Modern national elections have been won at the margin. That is, the base of each party can be counted on to vote for their party's candidates, up and down the ticket. But the bases are no longer what wins elections. It is the marginal voters—those who can go one way just as easily as the other way. Of course, how heavily they turn out is what makes the difference. Trump election in 2016 proved this.



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2020-Aug-13 More... The six states that Trump was not supposed to win tell us something about voters attitudes, not just in those states, but across the nation. Trump won Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida because a new group of voters showed up at the poles. They were the" frustrated minority." The frustrated minority is not large in numbers but they were large enough to provide the winning margin in these states. These are people who have not been voting in elections because they did not have candidates they could believe in. They have been waiting for a candidate who is willing to address their concerns. Let's face it, a lot of Republicans held their nose and voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney when they ran for president. Neither of these swamp dwellers presented strong campaigns or were willing to address the real issues. The Democrats and their partners in the national press controlled the content of their elections. Why would you vote for these Democrats in Republican clothing? Fewer and fewer are doing so.



The fact that the frustrated minority showed up in not one but six states makes a compelling argument for that to happen again in the 2018 elections. A lot of House and Senate incumbents who have not supported the Trump agenda are going to be replaced in the primary elections with candidates who promise to go to Washington and support the Trump agenda.



Do not think for one minute the Democrat Party, the fake news companies and the swamp dwellers are not aware of the frustrated minority. They know the frustrated minority can make the difference in at least six states, if not more. That is why they are so desperate, using their fake news, lies and deceptions.



Their desperation has reached the panic level. That is why we keep hearing about impeaching Trump and removing him from office. This is the scary part. Conditions are such, in Washington, D. C., that Trump could be removed from office even though he is completely innocent of having committed "high crimes and misdemeanors." All they need are the votes in the House and Senate. Scary, right? Not really. In my opinion impeachment and removal from office will not happen because all of the House members who vote for impeachment have to go back home and run for election in 2018. The American voter would punish them unmercifully. Dumb as they are, every house m ember would have this on his mind if he were faced with having to cast such a vote, It is bad political strategy for an incumbent to have to run for office on a major event that is so well defined so close to his election day. That is what they are faced with. Vote for impeachment and then go face your voters. There is not that much courage in any modern politician,



The situation in the Senate is different with one third of the Senators running. And it takes a three-fifths vote to convict for impeachment. That is what saved Bill Clinton. There are eight Republican incumbents, two independents and 23 Democrat seats open. In this political environment the Republicans are favored to pick up some seats. If Senators voted for removal and then had to run, not only the frustrated minority would show up but a lot of others would be there to hand out punishment.



When you see the impeachment and removal from office issue come up, you can be assured that those Republicans who support it are committing political suicide. Not only would the 2018 candidates be at political risk but he future of both the Democrat and Republican parties.



Now for some good news. Donald J. Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. That means he has a huge say in the strategy for the 2018 elections. He has already used is clout on one of his detractors. Republican Senator Jeff Flake form Arizona. John McCain is the other Senator from Arizona. McCain ran in 2016 and Flake is running in 2018. Flake has an opponent. Flake criticized Trump about Charlottesville. Trump quickly returned the favor by endorsing Flake's conservative Republican opponent.



Trump could bring Reince Priebus back as a employee of the National Republican Party to recruit and run the House and Senate campaigns for the 2018 elections. Although the parties are not supposed to get involved in the primaries, there is no reason Priebus could not run a Republican primary recruitment campaign for Trump outside the Republican Party. There is a need for the recruitment of candidates supportive of Trump. It is for sure the National Republican Party machinery is not going to work for Trump candidates in the primaries. However, they have no choice but to support the winners of the primaries.



Watch out for Steve Bannon going after swamp creatures who have not supported Trump.



The frustrated minority is still there in every state. They are loyal to Trump. They won the 2016 election for him. As long as the frustrated minority does not abandon Trump there will be a lot of Trump support within the rest of the party, but also among the independents.



Do not lose your political vigor over what the fake news media want you to believe. The second act is about to begin and it will be just as exciting and productive as the first act. Trump's success is a two-act play. The first act is over. That was the 2016 election. The second act will begin in January of 2018 following the primary elections for the US House and Senate. It is now obvious the present Republicans in the House and Senate do not plan to cooperate with reforms proposed by President Trump and mandated by the 2016 electorate. Trump will continue to have battles with the swamp creatures until the 2018 elections are over. The swamp creatures believe their job is to deny the Trump agenda. Do not look for real progress in Obama Care, tax reform, cutting the budget, and an infrastructure program or anything else Trump wants until the new House and Senate members are seated in early 2019.The swamp creatures--there are many more than the House and Senate members--will continue to try to make us believe they are true Republicans but they will continue to fail. Senator John McCain and his idiot buddy Lindsey Graham will step up to the plate to stop these programs if no one else will. They will readily sacrifice themselves. After all they do not run in 2018.The "nay sayers," along with the Democrats and the swamp dwellers, are looking toward the 2018 elections to strengthen their position just like the conservatives are (notice I did not say Republicans). It will no doubt be a Battle Royale.Modern national elections have been won at the margin. That is, the base of each party can be counted on to vote for their party's candidates, up and down the ticket. But the bases are no longer what wins elections. It is the marginal voters—those who can go one way just as easily as the other way. Of course, how heavily they turn out is what makes the difference. Trump election in 2016 proved this.The six states that Trump was not supposed to win tell us something about voters attitudes, not just in those states, but across the nation. Trump won Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida because a new group of voters showed up at the poles. They were the" frustrated minority." The frustrated minority is not large in numbers but they were large enough to provide the winning margin in these states. These are people who have not been voting in elections because they did not have candidates they could believe in. They have been waiting for a candidate who is willing to address their concerns. Let's face it, a lot of Republicans held their nose and voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney when they ran for president. Neither of these swamp dwellers presented strong campaigns or were willing to address the real issues. The Democrats and their partners in the national press controlled the content of their elections. Why would you vote for these Democrats in Republican clothing? Fewer and fewer are doing so.The fact that the frustrated minority showed up in not one but six states makes a compelling argument for that to happen again in the 2018 elections. A lot of House and Senate incumbents who have not supported the Trump agenda are going to be replaced in the primary elections with candidates who promise to go to Washington and support the Trump agenda.Do not think for one minute the Democrat Party, the fake news companies and the swamp dwellers are not aware of the frustrated minority. They know the frustrated minority can make the difference in at least six states, if not more. That is why they are so desperate, using their fake news, lies and deceptions.Their desperation has reached the panic level. That is why we keep hearing about impeaching Trump and removing him from office. This is the scary part. Conditions are such, in Washington, D. C., that Trump could be removed from office even though he is completely innocent of having committed "high crimes and misdemeanors." All they need are the votes in the House and Senate. Scary, right? Not really. In my opinion impeachment and removal from office will not happen because all of the House members who vote for impeachment have to go back home and run for election in 2018. The American voter would punish them unmercifully. Dumb as they are, every house m ember would have this on his mind if he were faced with having to cast such a vote, It is bad political strategy for an incumbent to have to run for office on a major event that is so well defined so close to his election day. That is what they are faced with. Vote for impeachment and then go face your voters. There is not that much courage in any modern politician,The situation in the Senate is different with one third of the Senators running. And it takes a three-fifths vote to convict for impeachment. That is what saved Bill Clinton. There are eight Republican incumbents, two independents and 23 Democrat seats open. In this political environment the Republicans are favored to pick up some seats. If Senators voted for removal and then had to run, not only the frustrated minority would show up but a lot of others would be there to hand out punishment.When you see the impeachment and removal from office issue come up, you can be assured that those Republicans who support it are committing political suicide. Not only would the 2018 candidates be at political risk but he future of both the Democrat and Republican parties.Now for some good news. Donald J. Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. That means he has a huge say in the strategy for the 2018 elections. He has already used is clout on one of his detractors. Republican Senator Jeff Flake form Arizona. John McCain is the other Senator from Arizona. McCain ran in 2016 and Flake is running in 2018. Flake has an opponent. Flake criticized Trump about Charlottesville. Trump quickly returned the favor by endorsing Flake's conservative Republican opponent.Trump could bring Reince Priebus back as a employee of the National Republican Party to recruit and run the House and Senate campaigns for the 2018 elections. Although the parties are not supposed to get involved in the primaries, there is no reason Priebus could not run a Republican primary recruitment campaign for Trump outside the Republican Party. There is a need for the recruitment of candidates supportive of Trump. It is for sure the National Republican Party machinery is not going to work for Trump candidates in the primaries. However, they have no choice but to support the winners of the primaries.Watch out for Steve Bannon going after swamp creatures who have not supported Trump.The frustrated minority is still there in every state. They are loyal to Trump. They won the 2016 election for him. As long as the frustrated minority does not abandon Trump there will be a lot of Trump support within the rest of the party, but also among the independents.Do not lose your political vigor over what the fake news media want you to believe. The second act is about to begin and it will be just as exciting and productive as the first act.

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