No Joke: Storm Area 51 Raid Launches Extraterrestrial Odds on Alien Pilgrimage Outcome

Posted on: July 16, 2019, 11:49h.

Last updated on: July 16, 2019, 11:53h.

The Storm Area 51 Facebook event that is jokingly threatening to raid the highly guarded military compound has led to one online sportsbook offering up odds on how this whole bunch of nonsense will play out.

What are the odds the Area 51 raid will be a success for those who have registered on Facebook to attend? Long. (Image: Wikipedia/Storm Area 51/Facebook)

Online bookie Bovada has issued three lines on the event that is humorously (not so in the US government’s eyes) planned for September 20 at 3 am PDT. Created by a user named Jackson Barnes, the group currently has 1.3 million Facebook members who have RSVP’d as “going,” and another one million “interested.”

“How many people will RSVP ‘Going’ to the event ‘Storm Area 51, They Can’t Stop All of Us’ on Facebook?” Bovada asks. The over/under is at 1.51 million, with the over at -400, and under +250.

The odds suggest the movement is just getting started, as -400 implies an 80 percent chance the over will win. The event, which Barnes says he created only as a joke, is gaining national attention and attracting the eyes of government officials.

The Nevada Test and Training Range is an area where the Air Force tests and trains combat aircraft,” Air Force spokesperson Laura McAndrews said in a statement. “Any attempt to illegally access military installations or military training areas is dangerous.”

Area 51 and the Nevada Test and Training Range are part of the Nellis Air Force Base. It has been a source of alien and UFO conspiracies for decades.

Trump Weighing In

President Donald Trump rarely shies away from a controversy, but when it comes to betting on whether the commander-in-chief will warn against an Area 51 raid via Twitter, the odds are long.

The line asking if Trump will tell the world to stay away from the Air Force base by September 20 is No -510, Yes +305. As for the actual chances of Area 51 being raided, the line is at No -400, Yes +250.

To put this all in perspective, organizer Barnes lives in Melbourne, Australia. And a pinned Facebook post under the event description cautions, “PS Hello US government, this is a joke, and I do not actually intend to go ahead with this plan. I just thought it would be funny and get me some thumbsy uppies on the internet.”

Still, local businesses say they’re benefiting from the prank event. Motels talking with the Las Vegas Review-Journal say they’ve sold out rooms around September 20, and are expecting increased tourism during the week.

Fun and Games Until…

The Facebook group’s discussion is a comical list of jokes. “We will all meet up at the Area 51 Alien Center tourist attraction and coordinate our entry. If we Naruto run, we can move faster than their bullets. Let’s see them aliens,” the event description reads.

Via other social media, numerous celebrities including musician Kevin Jonas, action-movie star Danny Trejo, and “Old Town Road” singer Lil Nas X have all shared posts discussing the planned raid. But in reality, it will quickly become no laughing matter should anyone or group attempt to enter Area 51.

Signs surrounding the large isolated complex – which the US government only publicly acknowledge its existence in a 2013 Freedom of Information Act request – warn outsiders: “It is unlawful to enter this area without permission of the Installation Commander. Use of deadly force authorized.”

Trespassers face a $1,000 fine and six-month imprisonment, which seems relatively innocent compared to “deadly force.”