On Sunday, Andy Murray lost a big Grand Slam final to Novak Djokovic, which is his fourth defeat in the Australian Open final to the World No 1. Upon watching the showpiece final, a section of spectators still feel that Andy Murray isn’t that far from toppling the Serbian on a regular basis. But judging rationally on what we witnessed, is it really true that Murray can get the better of Djokovic when it really matters?

Are Murray and Djokovic Closer Than We Think?

The head to head between the World’s top two players is settled at 22 wins to 9 losses for Novak Djokovic. It’s a heavily favoured record for the Serbian, but most have been accumulated over the last 3 years. Murray actually has only won one match against Djokovic since the Wimbledon 2013 final, losing 10 of 11 meetings since that historic moment. In 8 of their last 10 meetings, it’s been worryingly apparent that Andy Murray suffers a mental let-down whenever he’s played Djokovic in recent memory, including in the Australian Open 2015 final, where he lost the fourth set 6-0, and the French Open semi-final, where he clawed back the scoreline before dropping the last set 6-1. These particular score lines suggest that Murray doesn’t mentally believe he has what it takes to not only compete with Djokovic over the best-of-5 sets format, but also to get over the line and do that with regular success. But that’s not saying that Murray necessarily has shortcomings or limitations in regard to what he presents on a tennis court. It’s simplistically saying that, just like a large portion of the players situated in the Top 100 and beyond, he simply fails to believe they can get the better of Djokovic in best-of-3 sets, never mind best-of-5. Should Murray as a World Number 2 be pushing Djokovic even further like a real World Number 2 would be expected to? A fair assessment would be probably, but it shouldn’t take away exactly what Novak Djokovic has developed and committed to, to become the player he is in modern tennis.

There is a valid argument in relation to both Djokovic and Murray’s games that suggest exactly why Murray in recent times hasn’t been able to force many victories against Djokovic. To a certain extent, it can be debated that Murray and Djokovic share very similar games; both have two of the greatest returns in the game, both have suspect second serves, although Djokovic’s has improved. But the problematic feature, particularly in these best-of-5 matches, that hurts Murray the most is the physical aspect of tennis. It’s been well-documented that Murray has improved and become one of the greater proponents of the physicality of his game, but Djokovic mirrors that and more. Djokovic is as close to an all-around tennis player as it comes, with the one slight area of weakness being his overheads. The Serbian can arguably match Murray’s strength on the return of serve, perhaps it can be debated that he trumps him in that department, and also has become the master of the physicality of tennis in a best-of-5 format. That ultimately puts Murray in a precarious position, as all his strengths are nullified by what Djokovic brings to a tennis court on a regular basis.

Another aspect that I think Murray can improve on, in comparison to Djokovic, is finding a way to win when he’s having a bad day at the office. In 2015 we saw plenty of days where Djokovic probably didn’t want to be on a tennis court, but grinded out tough wins against Goffin, Gulbis, and Dolgopolov. Most recently against Gilles Simon at the Australian Open was a perfect example of Djokovic failing to produce his best tennis, but grinding out good result after good result under the circumstances. That’s not to say that Murray never wins unless he’s beautiful, confidence-building tennis, that’s far from the case. But he needs to be winning matches like against Kevin Anderson at the fourth round of the US Openn in order to be in the same conversation as someone like Novak Djokovic.

The ranking points gap between Djokovic and Murray is now equal to the gap between Murray and World #36 Pablo Cuevas, which speaks volumes when comparing really just how far Murray is from regularly beating Novak Djokovic.

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