Jennifer Jacobs

jejacobs@dmreg.com

Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley leads Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst 44 percent to 40 percent in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, a poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University shows.

Ernst is closing a wide gap — Braley led with 42 percent to Ernst's 29 percent in Quinnipiac's March 13 survey.

But there's "an unusual gender gap," with more female registered voters supporting the man while more men support the woman, said Peter Brown, the assistant poll director, in a news release. Women back Braley 47 percent to 36 percent, while men back Ernst 44 percent to 40 percent.

That's due to some degree to the fact that women tend to lean Democratic while men lean Republican, Brown said. But voters think Ernst would do a better job on issues important to women than Braley, 49 percent to 30 percent.

Braley and Ernst are grappling for the U.S. Senate seat that Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin leaves open when he retires in January. It's one of the most-watched Senate races in the country as Republicans seek to gain the six seats necessary to retake the majority.

The Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed 1,277 Iowa registered voters from June 12-16, using live interviewers who called land lines and cellphones. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. Quinnipiac conducts public opinion surveys in Iowa, several other states, and the nation as a public service and for research.

GOP operatives pointed out that the party affiliation of the poll respondents doesn't reflect the likely turnout in this fall's election.

The Quinnipiac sample was 40 percent independents, 29 percent Democrats and 27 percent Republican. The turnout in 2010 was 40 percent Republicans, 35 percent Democrats and 25 percent independents.

The survey showed Ernst is becoming better known in Iowa. Eighty percent didn't know enough about her to form an opinion in March. Now, 37 percent are unfamiliar with her. Thirty-four percent think favorably about her.

Fully 57 percent of all registered voters say Ernst's advertisements have been effective. Ernst skyrocketed onto the national political scene when she released her "Squeal" ad in late March. She repeated her "mother, soldier, conservative" slogan everywhere she went before winning the five-way GOP primary on June 3. That line became "mother, soldier, Iowa values" in her first general election ad, released Monday.

Thirty-five percent think favorably about Braley, with 37 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion, compared to 46 percent who didn't know enough in March, the survey shows. Braley, a lawyer from Waterloo, has served in Congress for seven years.

Braley is "about right" on the political scale to 43 percent of voters, while 26 percent say he is too liberal. Ernst is "about right" to 41 percent of voters say, while 27 percent say she's too conservative.

When it comes to specific issues, more voters think Braley would do a better job than Ernst, on the economy and jobs, the new federal health care law, immigration, same-sex marriage, the environment, the minimum wage, helping the middle class and gun control.

Voters think Ernst would do a better job than Braley helping farmers and on government spending.

"One interesting data point is that voters think (by 44 percent to 31 percent) that Ernst cares about their needs and problems, a category in which Republicans, even victorious ones, often struggle," Brown said. "Her TV ads which stressed her farm family background apparently are doing their job."