Among the field of 19 Democratic hopefuls, 12 met the qualifications for the debate (polling at least 2% in the 4 polls approved of by the DNC and securing 130,000 unique donors).

Tuesday’s debate featured a record number of candidates in a primary debate and was the largest primary debate in history according to NYT. Frontrunners Vice President Joe Biden (DE) and Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA) appeared center stage, flanked by Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN). Senators Kamala Harris (CA), Cory Booker (NJ), entrepreneur Andrew Yang, and Representative Beto O’Rourke follow, with Representative Tulsi Gabbard (HI), philanthropist Tom Steyer, Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN), and Secretary Julián Castro completing the lineup. The stage is filled with current Democratic superstars, but that being said, the real winners of the debate are going to be determined by their polling numbers afterward.

Pre-debate context

Since late September, one main scandal has dominated the news: the Ukraine scandal. Congress received a complaint from a White House whistleblower about a call in which President Trump pressured Ukrainian President, Volodomyr Zelensky, to investigate Joe Biden by threatening to withhold crucial military aid for Ukraine’s ongoing war. The scandal introduced two interesting themes in the debates. The first was the impeachment inquiry, announced by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on September 24, which played a major role in last night’s debates. The second issue, although less prominent in last night’s debates, was Joe Biden’s involvement with his son’s role in Ukrainian oil company Burisma.

Polls from before the debate show Warren closing in on Biden, but most of her new supporters aren’t decreasing Biden’s, rather, she’s gained support from candidates like Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders, and lower polling candidates like Cory Booker. The Ukraine scandal hasn’t hurt Biden’s numbers, but Warren’s surge forward does put her in a better spot ahead of Iowa. As for the other 2020 hopefuls, not many pose a threat to the two front runners. Sanders’ polling data has remained within the same range since May, Harris’ tidal wave of support from her attack on Biden during the June debate has crashed, pulling her down to the Buttigieg’s level in the polls.

Source: Real Clear Politics As of October 16th

Spotlight Moments

“The difference between a plan and a pipe dream is something that you can actually get done.” – Amy Klobuchar calling out Elizabeth Warren’s “Medicare for All” plan

“My son did nothing wrong. I did nothing wrong. I carried out the policy of the U.S. government in rooting out corruption in Ukraine. That’s what we should be focusing on.”- Joe Biden on his son Hunter Biden

“Women are people, and people deserve to control their own bodies.” -Cory Booker

I know what’s broken, I know how to fix it, and I’m willing to get out and fight for it. #DemDebate pic.twitter.com/wyzchdc53u — Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) October 16, 2019

“We need to win this election by talking about who and what we are for.” -Booker

“People need to keep their hands off women’s bodies and let women make decisions for their own bodies.” – Harris

Republican legislatures need to keep their hands off of women’s bodies. #DemDebate pic.twitter.com/YVywwyu1vY — Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 16, 2019

“Democrats will win when we fight for the things that touch peoples’ lives… When we give people a reason to fight” -Elizabeth Warren



Winners

Elizabeth Warren

If the focus on Joe Biden was an indication of his Democratic top dog status in the first three debates, Elizabeth Warren clearly intimidated most candidates going into the fourth debate. Throughout the night, Warren was the subject of constant attacks and questions, showing the crowd that Warren is now a serious front runner and competition to Biden. The first question of the night went to Warren. The moderators questioned why President Trump’s fate should be left to Congress rather than the voters, and Warren’s response set her up for success throughout the night. She reinforced the idea that impeachment is about “more than just politics.” After the question about impeachment passed, she faced a round of attacks from candidates like Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Gabbard, Harris, O’Rourke, Biden, and even faced off against Yang on automation. Certain aspects of her performance were weaker than others, namely when she dodged questions about Medicare, but for the most part, she stood strong against the attacks. After the fourth debate, Warren’s frontrunner status is clear leading up to the Iowa caucuses.

Bernie Sanders

The October debate was Bernie Sanders’ first appearance on the campaign trail since suffering a heart attack and having an emergency surgery earlier this month. Between being the oldest 2020 candidate and his recent medical issues, Sanders needed to reassure viewers of his physical fitness to serve as president. When the moderators prompted him to speak on his health, he did just that, telling viewers, “I’m healthy, I’m feeling great!” Throughout the night, Sanders was lively and spoke passionately about his plans, arguably more so than he had in the past debates. After the debate, Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), Ilhan Omar (MN), and Rashida Tlaib (MI), plan to endorse Sanders. With the backing of three-fourths of the “squad,” and his impressive post-heart attack debate performance, the message is clear: Bernie Sanders is here to stay.

Pete Buttigieg

Voices like Warren and Sanders have pushed forward far-left, progressive policies like wiping out student debt and Medicare for all, but Buttigieg became a voice of moderate pragmatism throughout the night. He took strong stances on many hot issues of the night; boldly criticizing Warren’s healthcare plan, facing off with Beto O’Rourke on gun control, and condemning Tulsi Gabbard’s stance on Syria. This was an impressive and heated debate between the two veterans on the stage. Viewers saw a more passionate side of Mayor Pete during the fourth debate, one who is willing to assert himself as a voice for centrist solutions.

Andrew Yang

Yang has laid low in the past three debates, but the fourth debate finally got him talking about his policies. Moderator Erin Burnett introduced automation to the debate, and while Sanders argued that everyone ought to be guaranteed federally funded jobs, the hallmark of Andrew Yang’s campaign finally got its airtime: the Freedom Dividend. The plan is a universal basic income of $1,000 every month to every citizen over the age of 18 and has been front and center on Yang’s website and in his interviews. When finally given the opportunity to spread his ideas, Yang did not disappoint. He clearly explained the benefits of the Dividend, stating that it would be a “positive vision in response to the Fourth Industrial Revolution,” and Julían Castro and Tulsi Gabbard supported his proposal during the debate.

Losers

Joe Biden

Biden lost his leg up as the only front runner so far, and it shows. Even though the attacks of the night were laser-focused on Warren instead of him, that also left him without the disproportionate amount of attention he had been receiving in previous debates. He kept up with his recent pattern of odd slip-ups, like confusing Afghanistan and Iraq and replacing the word “exponentially” with “expediently.” At the beginning of the debate, the moderator asked him why Hunter’s involvement with Ukrainian oil company Burisma was justified, and Biden’s response missed the mark. Rather than answering the question, he said, “My son did nothing wrong. I did nothing wrong. I carried out the policy of the United States in rooting out corruption in Ukraine. That’s what we should be focusing on.” However, his answer doesn’t address the fact that Hunter’s Burisma involvement does seem questionable to many Americans. The debate was his chance to clear the air of controversy, debate experts even encouraged him to do so. But instead, Biden left viewers with an underwhelming response and rambly, mediocre discussions of policy in a substance-filled night.

Elizabeth Warren (on Medicare)

Warren held her own through despite censure from her fellow candidates on most issues, except Medicare. While she’s known for “having a plan for that,” Medicare for All is one of her key proposals. Warren’s discussion of her healthcare policy prompted an onslaught of criticism, largely from Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, who were quick to catch one of her major weaknesses. When asked whether or not her plan would increase taxes on the middle class, Warren refused to provide a definitive “yes” or “no” answer, instead opting to answer with the vague claim that Medicare for all would “lower costs.” Mayor Pete called out her obvious ambiguity, and Klobuchar’s rebuttal reminded the crowd of the moderate alternative to many far-left policy proposals. “I appreciate Elizabeth’s work. But again, the difference between a plan and a pipe dream is something that you can actually get done,” said Klobuchar.

ICYMI: Elizabeth Warren was repeatedly confronted by fellow Democrats for refusing to admit her “Medicare for All” plan will raise taxes on the middle class, and how she hasn’t admitted to how she would pay for any of it. #DemDebate pic.twitter.com/tCoDpkFz2Q — MRCTV.org (@mrctv) October 16, 2019

Tom Steyer

Steyer’s debate performance, much like his campaign thus far, was lackluster and easily forgettable. Aside from Andrew Yang, Steyer was the only candidate on the stage who hadn’t previously held some sort of office, which was apparent in his performance. The debate started on a discussion about impeachment, Steyer’s signature issue, and instead of making a memorable first impression in the debate, his commentary was lost between other candidates’ support of impeachment and a heated discussion of Medicare. He didn’t dive into most of the discussions about policy. In the end, many people still don’t recognize Steyer’s campaign and those who do, define his campaign with his pro-impeachment stance.

Conclusions

Although the October Democratic debate had more candidates than the September debate, the night was one of the most substantive debates we’ve seen so far. Discussions of actual policy trumped impeachment talk, which didn’t get much attention after the first hour of the night. Issues like health care and taxation dominated the start of the debate, many candidates expressed a sense of urgency about the climate crisis, and some even took a stand on women’s reproductive rights. Notably, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker voiced their support for greater abortion accessibility. O’Rourke and Buttigieg clashed on gun control, and the recent controversy surrounding plans to remove American troops from Syria forced candidates to discuss foreign policy. Automation and the economy also received well-deserved air time. The focus on substance served a refreshing shift from the previous soundbite-driven debates.

Heading into the fifth debate in November, eight candidates have already met the qualification, which has been changed since September’s standards. Now, candidates will need to have at least 165,000 unique donors and reach at least 3% in four DNC approved polls, or 5% from two polls in the early caucus and primary states. Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Booker, Buttigieg, Yang, and Steyer have already qualified. The debates, which are to be held on November 20th in Atlanta and hosted by MSNBC and The Washington Post, will be too late for lower polling candidates to drastically change their trajectory head of the Iowa caucus.

October’s debate was an interesting change of pace for the Democrats. They got real about policy, supported impeachment, and clashed on key issues, but most importantly, Elizabeth Warren solidified her place as a strong contender for the 2020 nomination. Biden has been ahead in the polls, but Warren’s numbers have been closing in on his. Upcoming polling data will determine the real winners of the night, but after Warren’s strong performance, and Biden’s weak commentary, it’s clear that she’s giving him a run for his money ahead of the home stretch.



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Demos Negash Demos Negash is a sophomore at duPont Manual High School in Louisville, Kentucky. Demos comes from a immigrant family from Eritrea, a country in East Africa, that was torn by civil war. He enjoys going out with friends, doing service, and politics. He is actively involved in his school's Y-Club and Debate Team. He also currently works for the Edelen for Governor campaign in Kentucky. When he gets older, he hopes to pursue a career in government. Sasha Rieser Sasha Rieser is a junior at Needham High School where she's a captain on the Speech and Debate team as well as co-editor of the art and literary magazine and member of GirlUp. Throughout the past few years, she's become increasingly passionate about politics and hopes to contribute to the growing movement of teenagers using their voices and speaking up for their beliefs. Competing in speech and debate and developing an interest in writing has allowed her to advocate for her beliefs in a world increasingly divided by politics.

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