POLLS in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and more

With Theodoric Meyer, Maggie Severns and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (https://subscriber.politicopro.com/proinfo)


POLLTALK — “Quinnipiac polls: Portman by 9, Rubio and McGinty by 3 in Senate races,” by Campaign Pro’s Scott Bland: “GOP Sen. Rob Portman ... leads Democrat Ted Strickland 49 percent to 40 percent among registered voters in the poll, which also found Hillary Clinton leading Trump 49 percent to 45 percent in the presidential race. [Sen. Marco] Rubio takes 48 percent to 45 percent for Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, his likely general election opponent, in Florida, where Clinton takes 46 percent to 45 percent for Trump. But in Pennsylvania, [Democrat Katie] McGinty has a slim advantage over GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, 47 percent to 44 percent. Clinton is pegged to a big lead in the state: 52 percent to 42 percent over Trump. Portman has not trailed in a public poll since June, while McGinty has now led six of the last eight public surveys in Pennsylvania after consistently trailing Toomey. (Clinton has also ticked up in the state.) Murphy, who is still relatively little-known in Florida, has consistently trailed Rubio, though by varying amounts. http://politico.pro/2aNu94W

— I TOOK A POLL IN IBIZA — Feingold 53, Johnson 42 in Wisconsin: “Democrat Russ Feingold has a substantial lead among likely voters in Wisconsin's Senate race, according to the latest Marquette University Law School poll of his race against GOP Sen. Ron Johnson. Feingold earns the support of 53 percent of likely voters to Johnson's 42 percent. Among registered voters, the Democratic margin is smaller - a reversal of the usual trend that has popped up in a previous Marquette survey, as well as this week's NBC/Wall Street Journal polls. Feingold wins 49 percent to Johnson's 43 percent among the broader group of registered voters.” http://politico.pro/2aTHpmu

— DEM INTERNAL — Schneider leads Dold in Illinois: “Former Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider is leading GOP Rep. Bob Dold 46 percent to 40 percent in Illinois, according to a new poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The survey of registered voters also found that Dold is running far ahead of the Republican presidential nominee. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 56 percent to 25 percent in the suburban Chicago district, according to the survey.” http://politico.pro/2bhEndV

— “GOP-leaning pollster has Hassan, Ayotte in virtual dead heat,” by WMUR’s John DiStaso: “A new poll by the Republican-leaning Vox Populi Polling has Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan holding a narrow lead over Republican Sen. KelIy Ayotte, with the candidates running within the margin of error.” http://bit.ly/2aXrW1Z (Score note: It remains unusual, and thus notable, to see an internal poll that shows its favored candidate trailing.)

— MORE ON THAT UNUSUAL LIKELY-VOTER PATTERN: "Another traditional Republican advantage may be going by the wayside this year: Donald Trump, falling perilously behind Hillary Clinton in the polls, isn't getting the standard 'likely voter' bump that usually boosts GOP candidates in the closing weeks of the election. Every four years around Labor Day, the major national pollsters begin an effort to discern which voters will actually show up at the polls and cast ballots in the presidential race. And when the polls switch from measuring the preferences of all registered voters to those most likely to turn out — a smaller pool of voters — it typically results in improved standing for the GOP candidate." http://politi.co/2b0RRaT

Days until the 2016 election: 89.

Days until the Hawaii congressional primaries: 2. Days until the Alaska and Wyoming congressional primaries: 5.

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ALOHA — HAWAII PRIMARY PREVIEW — Mea culpa, Score family: We have neglected Hawaii in our primary countdown recently. A Hawaii Dem insider emails with gentle admonishment, as well as tips on the state's upcoming Saturday primary: Former Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa "should prevail in CD 1. She has a couple of primary opponents, but I expect her to win easily." (Hanabusa is running in the open primary to succeed late Rep. Mark Takai, in the seat she vacated to run for Senate in 2014 against appointed Sen. Brian Schatz, who prevailed and held his seat.) Incumbents Schatz and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard are also expected to cruise, though Gabbard does face a challenger, per the Star-Advertiser's Sophie Cooke: http://bit.ly/2bhZug1

NEW THIS MORNING — Rep. Will Hurd pops new ad in TX-23: The Republican incumbent is out with a new TV ad that highlight his congressional accomplishments, noting his never far from home as he's "constantly" visiting all 29 counties. "Two years ago, I promised to roll up my sleeves and go work for you. Since you've entrusted me with that honor, we've worked to get better care for our veterans, stop terrorists at the border and combat cyber attacks from abroad," Hurd says, addressing the camera. "Now, I promise you this: We're just getting started." The campaign reserved just over $150,000 on San Antonio broadcast for the next two weeks. Watch the new ad here: http://bit.ly/2b7PdBu

THE DAILY DOWN-BALLOT — MN-03's Paulsen takes a step away from Trump: "Rep. Erik Paulsen – still deciding whether he will vote for his party's presidential nominee, Donald Trump - on Wednesday declined to more forcefully denounce Trump's vague but seeming encouragement of violence against his opponent over her gun-control position," the Minneapolis Star Tribune's Ricardo Lopez writes. "'My vote has to be earned, and it has not been earned,' said Paulsen, the Third District incumbent congressman seeking re-election this fall. 'I heard about those comments late last night -- I'll just say that words matter,' Paulsen said. 'They especially matter for presidential candidates.'" http://strib.mn/2aClIbs

— Kirkpatrick ties McCain to Trump again in new ad: Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick's Arizona Senate campaign is out with a new ad doubling down on her strategy of tying GOP Sen. John McCain to Donald Trump. "John McCain has pledged to support Donald Trump over 50 times," a narrator says at the start of the 60-second spot. The ad cuts to three clips of McCain saying he'll support the GOP nominee, following by a clip of Trump saying he's "never been a big fan of John McCain." The ad also includes a clip of Trump saying on Tuesday that "Second Amendment people" might be able to stop Hillary Clinton. It comes three weeks ahead of the Republican primary, in which McCain is facing off against former state Sen. Kelli Ward. The ad is running online, and D.B. Mitchell, a Kirkpatrick spokesman, said that the campaign planned to start airing it on TV soon as well. Watch the ad: http://bit.ly/2aHUKuy.

FROM THE COURTROOM — “Appeals court blocks order easing Wisconsin voter ID law,” by POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein: “A federal appeals court has blocked a lower court's order that would have eased the Wisconsin voter ID law in advance of the November election. The 7th Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order Wednesday staying an injunction a district court judge issued last month allowing voters without legally approved photo identification to vote by signing an affidavit saying they faced a "reasonable impediment" to getting such an ID. The three-judge appeals court panel said that approach was too lax, even if some accommodation was necessary for voters who could not get identification with reasonable effort.” http://politi.co/2aMH1sn

THE NEXT NEXT CYCLE — EMILY’s List to spend $1 million on state legislative races, looking ahead to redistricting: The 2016 elections are still three months away, but EMILY’s List is already looking ahead. The group is launching a major effort to make sure as many governorships and state legislature as possible are in Democratic hands by 2020, when the once-a-decade redistricting process kicks off. The group is planning to target 14 states over the next four years. “In 2016 alone, we intend to flip eight state legislative chambers in seven states,” EMILY’s List Executive Director Jessica O’Connell said on a call with reporters on Wednesday. Those chambers include the Colorado state Senate, the Maine state Senate, the Michigan state House, the New Hampshire state Senate, the New Mexico state House and both chambers in Nevada. EMILY’s List will spend at least $1 million on the effort this cycle, O’Connell said.

MORE ADS, ADS, ADS — COORDINATED MESSAGING — “The DSCC is spending its first coordinated funds on Missouri's Senate race, airing a new TV ad with candidate Jason Kander that hits GOP Sen. Roy Blunt over the Blunt family's ties to Washington politics. The ad is the first coordinated television spending between the DSCC and Kander. Kander is also running a positive spot highlighting his service in Afghanistan this week.” Watch the ad: http://bit.ly/2aMr1q5. http://politico.pro/2b7eNqh

— In Ohio: The well-dressed man on a Segway tour who made appearances in earlier super PAC attack ads in Ohio is back, this time focused on Rob Portman’s trade record. AFSCME is spending $1.1 million running the ad between now and August 15. “Looks like Rob Portman knows how to clear out a factory,” he says. “Ohioans work here – but not anymore. Portman voted to give tax breaks to companies that shipped out jobs overseas. And get this: He even gave them a tax break for packing up the equipment and shipping it to places like China,” he says. Watch the ad: http://bit.ly/2bhUzvR.

— In Pennsylvania: "Senate Majority PAC is plowing nearly $1 million into a new television ad buy targeting Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania over gun policy — looking to blunt a positive ad campaign financed by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg highlighting the Republican’s work to expand background checks for firearms sales." http://politi.co/2biWgYF

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ — “Meet Trump’s filthy rich advisers,” by POLITICO Magazine’s Katherine Clark and Will Parker: “...As of last Friday, Lorber is also a key figure in Trump’s campaign, one of the 13 members of his new economic advisory team. When the group was announced, it immediately came under fire for a lack of diversity in gender and economic status: the team was all-male and mostly white and wealthy businessmen. In addition to real-estate titans, the appointees include several prominent hedge-fund managers and bankers. But the group also drew questions about just who these figures were. They weren’t drawn from the pool of well-known economic thinkers from previous GOP administrations that typical candidates would tap for such a job. By many accounts the most recognizable name on the list was John Paulson, the economist and hedge fund titan who made billions betting against U.S. subprime mortgages in the financial crisis of 2007.” http://politi.co/2b0cSCM

— “ Clinton wrestles with a stubborn swing state,” by POLITICO’s Gabriel Debenedetti: “It's the state that derailed her 2008 campaign, and nearly did it again in the February caucuses. Now, even as Hillary Clinton grows her lead across the swing state map, Iowa continues to bedevil her, remaining well within Donald Trump's reach. Tuesday's Wall Street Journal/NBC poll put her four points ahead of her rival — her biggest lead there since June. And that's despite a concerted effort here since the first day of her candidacy back in April 2015 — a sharp contrast with the less-regimented Trump effort. ...Part of Clinton's problem is the state's demographics. In no battleground state is she more dependent on less-educated white voters — Trump's wheelhouse - than in Iowa. And Trump's relationship with the local GOP infrastructure is in far better shape than in other swing states.” http://politi.co/2aC8o7c

— "Saving Mike Pence," by POLITICO's Matthew Nussbaum: "Mike Pence has been the good soldier. He’s standing up for his boss and cleaning up Donald Trump’s messes. And he’s even holding onto a thin edge in the polls that show more people still like him than dislike him. But Trump’s campaign is devolving, driven by one self-inflicted wound after the next. And barring a sharp turnaround, Pence’s allies will need to focus on minimizing the damage he faces by association if the Indiana governor aims for a political career after Election Day. ... Pence considered running for the Republican nomination himself in 2016. But being on the losing national ticket — particularly this ticket — could carry lasting damage, operatives say. No losing vice presidential candidate has gone on to win the presidency since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. ... If Pence runs in 2020, as many assume he will if Trump loses, much will depend both on the extent of a possible defeat and how he frames it." http://politi.co/2aUJq1M

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "These politicians can really say whatever they want and get away with it. It's disgusting,” Donald Trump said Wednesday, POLITICO reported. http://bit.ly/2bkhoeb

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