So this is it. After three years of high drama, the European Union is staring at its first ever sovereign default and, ironically, unlike every other deadline so far, this one looks set to be adhered to.

At 8pm GMT tonight (7am, AEDT, Friday morning), the authorities will know - or have a very good idea - how many of Greece’s international creditors have accepted its 206 billion euro ($256 billion) bond-swap offer.

If bondholders reject the debt deal entirely, there will be a big problem. Credit:AFP

The results will probably take a few days to come out - Athens has to put its decisions through Brussels’ sluggish decision making processes - but this time it isn’t up to the politicians so the possible outcomes are clearer.

1. A miracle: 95 per cent of Greek bondholders accept the deal, allowing a purely ‘‘voluntary’’ restructuring to go ahead. Athens is desperate to secure a ‘‘voluntary’’ agreement from bondholders - crucial to protecting its word and reputation in international markets, as well as avoiding a dreaded ‘‘disorderly’’ default.