A name as good, if not better, as any

Although there is likely to be complaints about the name used here, there are good reasons for it. There is little doubt that calling this the “Winter War” demonstrates so little imagination that it should be embarrassing to any daring to use the term, so the following is a brief summary of the more supposed treacherous elements in this conflict.

Test spent a long time with The Imperium (formerly the CFC) which is a fact that the current leadership are still very much in denial about. Even by the words of the Test leadership they left the CFC and started to court entities that were very much against the CFC. This led to the formation of the Honey Badger Coalition, which met its fate in the battle of 6VDT where Test lost heavily and was abandoned by its newly found allies in the HBC. More recently in Catch a deal was agreed, at least in principal, between The Imperium and Test which Co2 decided to undermine for some reason. With the killing of The Imperium’s Fortizar by Co2, any thought of a deal was now off the table.

Fcon not only turned their backs on The Imperium during The Casino War but have also done so recently against Stain Wagon. It is also believed that Fcon paid NC to be able to move from the galactic north. Paying for the safe evacuation of the north would have been a smart move given Fcon’s history of capital movements, so the rumour does have some credibility. Despite Fcon having an agreement in place Tarkinius then went to great lengths to go back on that agreement with SW. The reasons offered by Tarkinius seem credible until you actually look into them further. Once you do, they seem quite weak and are most likely disproportionate in order to give Fcon another option. It is very likely that Fcon found itself in a position where they had to look after their own interests. If those interests were not aligned with those of their more powerful neighbours, Fcon could be in quite the spot.

Lumpy suffered recently at the hands of the Co2 recruitment team and lost one of their larger corps to Co2. Normally such events are considered less than favourably. Thankfully Lumpy has seen the light and decided to move to Tenal with their good friends FUM8. It is rumoured that part of their exit strategy was to sell their space holdings to Test on the way out.

FUM8 are on their way to Tenal with Lumpy. They get a mention here simply as they seem to have lost 3 titans on their move op. Given that there were complaints about the tethering mechanic and bumping on a “neutral” citadel is unlikely to be related in any way what so ever. By all accounts there were very few people in local at the time of the move which only fueled speculation of an inside job.

NC was allied to Test and Co2 during The Casino War. Once done with that, NC decided that it was unhappy with Co2 and Test, and proceeded to execute a campaign against them in Tribute and the Vale. Now NC is once again cosying up with Test and Co2 against Stain Wagon. The motivation for this move from NC is still unclear, although with the content drought in the north their current actions can easily be explained away.

MC were accused by Co2 as stabbing them in the back during their most recent conflict in Tribute. Co2 said that the failure of MC to help defend Tribute was a breach of their agreements. Additionally MC recently picked up Suas and his corp, both of which recently defected from Co2. MC is currently on contract to aid Test and friends against SW. Who is actually paying for this venture is not known, as is normally the case with such contracts.

Drone Walkers came about by their interest in becoming involved in The Casino War. At the time Drone Walkers believed that their actions were supported by XIX but then XIX decided this was not the case. After Drone Walkers made a point to XIX by setting numerous sov event timers for XIX, an agreement for their independence was reached.

Co2 cemented its place as being a treacherous organisation during the events of M-O. No, not the last one, but the one before that. This is where they turned on their allies, accepted the dirty ISK from the casinos, and aligned with their former aggressors for their own immediate (and with hindsight) short lived, personal gain.

There is a host of other supposed acts of treachery as you would expect in Eve. Rat Salat for instance has moved over to Test from Co2. Angry Dragons has fled the field to join The Culture. Even Vily is creating his own corp within Test, which has normally been a sign of a cult of personality developing within an Alliance, and history has shown only too well how that pans out. There is also the sale of a Fortizar to Test by a rogue corporation within VOLT which was then subsequently kicked.

The more observant will notice that there is a propensity for those aligned against Stain Wagon to be less than honourable. This is probably the most notable element of those participating and which is why the “Traitors War” is quite fitting. So there we have it; an argument for why this is as a decent a name as any. Well at least a name that is better than yet another Winter War.

So what is it all about?

You may ask yourself what this war is all about as it seems far from clear given the statements provided from the numerous aggressors. The following has to be considered as speculative but is based on statements and actions by those involved.

Fcon seems to simply be looking to ensure its survival and not having to move again. They have made some interesting choices over the last year and if the corporation did not align with Test and Co2, then its own space would be threatened. The main strategy at this time seems to be for Tarkinius to simply put up walls of text to defend his alliance. Tarkinius does rightly state that there is no trusting Co2. It also suits Fcon to align with what could be considered its new masters in XIX. This is evident in the cancelling of the NIP agreement that Fcon had with Stain Wagon with such weak arguments.

Test have made a number of statements about wanting to grow and to finish building the final phase of its PvP escalation path. This of course relates to having a greater number of capitals. In order to do this they will need space to generate wealth and provide production opportunities. Building a capital fleet in Vale of the Silent was not going to be possible with Test under the threat of PL and NC. So despite the claims of Test propaganda that they would defend Vale until the last man, they have in fact made a prudent decision in trying to setup elsewhere. It is clear though that Test intend to become a major powerhouse in Eve. With this in mind where they end up choosing to live should be of interest to whoever their new found neighbours are.

TRI and XIX would simply like for Stain Wagon not to exist. Aggression on the part of TRI and XIX has been seen towards Stain Wagon historically. If Stain Wagon were to fall, then the Russian elements would likely consolidate into a single group, thus strengthening the “blue doughnut” controlled by the Russian player base.

Co2 seem to be an organisation in disarray. On November 27, 2016 its leadership released a SOTA. Going back to that it now looks laughable. The more vocal elements of Co2 seem to be very much more interested in cheap self-promotion and have no basis on reality. The reality being of course that there has been friction within the co2 leadership, as first pointed out by INN, which has resulted in the loss of around 20-25% of their membership and also of Suas and his corp to MC and Angry Dragons to The Culture. It is very likely that Gigx realises that his alliance is in crisis after performing two moves close together and a poor showing for the defence of the M-O Keepstar. It would not be unreasonable to conclude with this that he knows he has to stay close to the apron strings of Test for any chance of survival of his alliance. The dependency that Co2 has on others for their existence has been well demonstrated over the years. The main reason for Co2 being here and not in its homelands is simply that Test membership probably recognise that their very existence depends on staying close to a more powerful ally.

MC has been taking a new direction of late. This may be as a result of a reduction in clients willing to buy the services offered. There is no doubt that a trade network of some description is very much in their sights. This is not only shown by their efforts in citadel placements but also by picking up Suas and his corp recently. Suas is also known to be very fond of trade networks, and it is rumoured that this is a key part of the disagreement that he had with Gigx. Ultimately you would have to factor in ISK as being a main motivator for MC at this time. Their increased growth has also caused some observers to comment that this seems to be a move away from their historic roots.

Other elements seem to be simply involved for minor financial gains, favor or “content”. How this pans out for each of these smaller entities will remain to be seen. Lumpy and FUM8 have already made a decision although it has been quite costly for FUM8. FUM8 may have been better off moving their major assets prior to announcing a move in public.

Although Stain Wagon have not made any real declaration it would be foolish to ignore history. Catch has always been seen to be less than the best space Eve has to offer, but more of an important route to other regions. Stain Wagon has endured more wars and invasions than probably any other group in Eve. It is likely that they will simply employ similar tactics as before to endure and survive.

CVA is visible on the field of battle, but its members seem to shoot what they like when they like. There have been excursions from Co2 and Test into Providence which may have influenced their target calling. Severance recently picked up Bovril Borers, formerly of The OSS which used to be run by Suas, so this may affect the direction CVA choose to take. It is likely that CVA does recognise that Stain Wagon have and would be better neighbours than Test and Co2 given recent history. This is even taking into account the move of VOLT over to Stain Wagon from CVA.

The Imperium is one of the few groups to actually be concise in their intentions with regard to this war. It is also remarkably simple and clear. The best way to describe it is to imagine a very large “NO ENTRY” sign on the entrance to Querious and Delve. There are benefits to their participation in not only providing assistance to their good allies in Stain Wagon but also to hinder the efforts of those untrustworthy elements that aligned against them during The Casino War. Many have attempted to create a narrative that this is yet another war against the Goons, which has been considered as a somewhat desperate attempt to gain allies and preserve the morale of the attackers.

As yet there is still not a definitive statement as to what the victory condition of this war are. If anything, given the main players involved, it is likely to fizzle out in many respects once the reality sets in for participating groups. The ultimate future of Catch still remains very uncertain.

Events to date

Test and Co2 were quite public in announcing their initial plans for Catch. It was to be a relatively quick affair from their perspective, taking perhaps no more than a week or so. Their initial plan was to drop Fortizars in F4R2 and use that as their forward staging to push further into Catch. Plans often do not survive their first encounter with the enemy, and this time was no exception. Despite Test and their now seemingly numerous friends, even the ones they paid for, the events of F4R2 did not go entirely to plan.

The fight in F4R2 is the largest battle to date for 2017, and is likely to be so for some time to come, With around 3700 players in a single system at the peak of the battle. This fight was also notable for being around 10 hours long in often maximum time dilatation. There were some technical issues that resulted in some unfortunate losses on the defenders side, but these were simply shrugged off as “CCP, oh well.” After the battle, Test and friends were quick to make some very bold claims, the main one being with regard to The Imperium losing 700 billion ISK. This is likely to be considered the truth by many on the attackers side, as they are too entrenched in their narrative to even question the collective wisdom of Reddit. The reality is quite different though given the statements from an Imperium Reimbursement Director. Additionally the economic reports provided by CCP indicated that the Imperium’s ability to endure those types of losses is greater than that of the Catch invaders.

With the loss of the two Fortizars in F4R2 by Test and Co2 they quickly made moves to rally morale by declaring “Plan B.” In reality “Plan B” was simply to move into MB- which is a system belonging to Lumpy. It is rumoured that Test have paid Lumpy for not only the Fortizar in MB- but also for the entire constellation.

No matter how the result of F4R2 is presented by either side there is no doubt that it delayed the efforts of the aggressors. It also caused them to go for a solution that was not the same as their stated preference. Subsequently the advance by the aggressors has been slower than they hinted at and indeed would have liked.

The V-3 iHub and station timer were set by the invaders. This was being pushed as the next big battle. It did not happen though quite as expected for the invaders. The station timer was saved by Stain Wagon, and it is important to note that only the owners of the structure can “hack” the contest nodes in order to save them. The attacker, however, can have anyone attack the nodes that spawn in order to win an event. There was another incident of contest nodes not working in quite the same way as normal. Reports of CCP developers were made as even being in the constellation to fix nodes. This is unfortunate for Stain Wagon as at one point they had almost saved the iHub timer event at 90%. With only two nodes to go, one could only guess as to whether they would have been successful if the nodes had worked correctly. Perhaps the delay gave the attackers to rally in order to then counter the efforts of Stain Wagon.

This was anticipated by the attackers as an easy win given the timing of the event with the Russian holiday period. Once reality had set in it then became an event lasting over 4 hours with no time dilatation and very little action for the invaders. A feeling of how this received as “good content” for the invaders can be gauged by the number of posts made to Reddit exclaiming their dismay at the process of “winning”.

Ultimately the system of V-3 has been taken by the aggressors and is now the main staging for many of the alliances involved. From V-3 the attackers have a decent jump off point in order to continue their campaign. Triumvirate has also moved up to the system of 36N. The iHub in HED-GP has also been taken by Test although they have yet to claim the station and TCU. Regardless Test and friends are now well placed to start to clean up Catch and establish better infrastructure for logistics.

With the loss of V-3, both SW and Volt have announced that they are pulling out of Catch. SW is setting up in LGK, and Volt is on the move to an unknown final location. As such Catch is very much on fire with many timers being set, it is unlikely that Test et al will be able to win all the timers being set due to their number. So what timers are actually being focused on will show the desired direction they would like to take.

The Imperium gave the orders for sub-capitals to go back to their home system of D-W in Delve, as well as their capitals to the system of 4-07 in Catch from EX6. 4-07 is the gateway into Querious, which is a step closer to The Imperiums homeland of Delve. This move is one of a more defensive posture. It remains to be seen if this influences the actions of Test and their numerous allies.

Co2 has seen gains in Impass which indicates a possible direction of interest for them. The sov timers being set for this region of late are very high so there is more activity to be seen. The levels of resistance that are going to face the attackers is not yet known in this area. Impass does look like a relatively easy target for them though given the withdrawal of SW to LGK.

Feythabolis is also seeing a fair amount of attention by the aggressors. This again demonstrates a desire for this space for purposes as yet unknown.

So at this time the attackers are showing interest and activity in Catch, Impass and Feythabolis.

There have been other incidents, but in the grand scheme of things they mean very little. The real indicator will always be in the publicly available data on both killboards and Dotlan. So far these independent sources show that progress is far from a quick and decisive victory for the attackers that was originally envisaged. With the withdrawal of SW and Volt from the Catch region progress is expected to increase.

A great deal of attention has also been given to the ISK war. Test and friends have claimed that they are well ahead in this regard, but the most recent video by Jin’taan presents a case for this not being very accurate. Jin’taan has created a number of videos about this conflict that are definitely worth the time in watching, although his name for this war is terrible but at least he is not calling it The Winter War.

The future path of the Traitors War

Despite the constant claims of victory made by the attackers, the defenders have been more reserved in the main. Perhaps this is because many of their own objectives have already been secured. Stain Wagon has had time to assess their position and to move assets and The Imperium has loudly declared “KEEP OUT – PRIVATE PROPERTY!” to the hostile invaders should they look towards Querious.

Ultimately the onus is on the attackers to make progress. With the more progress they are indeed likely to make, there then comes the downside of being the defender. As the aggressors make progress their density will start to thin. Income is already an issue and probably has been for some time. Generating income of some sort is likely to be an ever more pressing need. Especially as their income is a factor in how long they can retain some of their “valued allies”.

It is clear however that the defenders are very intent on making this as an unpleasant experience as possible for Test and friends. Given recent events it is probably not a bad idea for market traders to invest in interceptors and entosis modules, if they are not too late already. Timers are still being defended and the stamina of the attackers will undoubtedly be tested as time goes on.

Co2 roams have also been seen heading towards Querious and Delve which may force The Imperium to take some sort of action again in Catch. It is not known if the actions of the Co2 pilots is a deliberate act to draw The Imperium back into Catch or simply the actions of a Co2 FC looking for content that does not involve entosis work. It was the actions of Co2 that provoked The Imperium into being more involved in Catch in the first place.

Omist is held by the renters Kids With Guns and Tenerifis is controlled in the main by Fcon. Both of these regions are aligned with Test and friends so are unlikely to come under attack. Esoteria on the other hand is currently held by SW so may well be another target should an ambitious expansion be the ultimate goal for Test.