FARGO — The snow has been piling up and so are the chances for a significant flood in the Red River Valley.

The National Weather Service’s latest flood outlook concludes that the risk for significant flooding is substantial throughout the valley, now running above long-term historical averages.

Snowfall in late January and February added a substantial snow pack, “so that widespread, above normal, runoff is now likely,” according to the flood outlook. A delayed thaw or more substantial snowfall could change flooding prospects more still.

“We’re at the mercy of March!” meteorologist Greg Gust said in announcing the new outlook on Thursday, Feb. 21.

The latest outlook gives a 95 percent chance that Fargo will experience a moderate flood of 24.7 feet and a 5 percent chance of a 36.9-foot crest. Major flood stage begins at 30 feet. The record 2009 flood crested at 40.8 feet.

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The entire Red River will see “significantly higher flows,” partly due to higher stream flow and soil moisture as well as runoff from the southern valley.

Runoff could be exacerbated by deep frost caused by the extensive extreme cold weather, although soils are dry enough to handle some snow melt runoff — if the thaw cooperates and is gradual, according to the weather service.

But the climate outlook indicates a later snow melt and runoff, increasing the risk for a rapid melt, possibly coinciding with rains.

Frost depth is deeper than normal, ranging from 35 to 45 inches in most areas. River and lake ice thicknesses are near to above seasonal normal ranges.

Since Dec. 1, snowfall has ranged from 90 percent to 160 percent of normal, with the lowest readings in east-central North Dakota and the highest in north-central Minnesota into the central and southern Red River Valley.

The water content ranges from 2.5 to 4 inches across most areas, including the Devils Lake Basin.

Total precipitation, rain or snow water content, across the Red River Basin measured 1 to 3 inches above the long-term normal for most of the central and southern Red River Basin.