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Not everyone, it seems, thinks Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock has turned the corner.

Goldman Sachs on Tuesday reiterated a Sell rating and $225 price target—suggesting a 35% drop from current prices and a similar discount to FactSet’s average around $340. The looming phaseout of federal tax credits could pull demand forward, hurting next year’s sales, analyst David Tamberrino warns.

Elon Musk unveiled the first mile-long tunnel in Hawthorne, Calif. The tech entrepreneur says the system, simply called “loop,” is a first step toward developing a high-speed network underground to eliminate traffic congestion. Photo: Pool/Getty Images

“We believe there is a pull-ahead of deliveries and option mix occurring in the U.S. in the second half of 2018 that will likely create a lull in demand starting in the first quarter of 2019 that may not be fully made up by initial deliveries across Europe,” Tamberrino wrote.

Tesla reported strong third-quarter growth, which has contributed to a bevy of recent upgrades as the stock has climbed some 11% this year. The shares were recently about flat at near $346.

But Goldman highlights the possible challenges Tesla faces as the credit—which will sit at $7,500 until the end of the year—diminishes in 2019. (All of Tesla’s vehicles have thus far qualified for the full benefit, which varies based on the vehicle’s battery capacity.)

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That effectively raises the prices consumers pay for the cars. Meanwhile, competitors are widening the electric vehicle category with new models—which could benefit from the full credit.

That said, Tesla also will see its price mix shifting downward as it introduces less-expensive models. A smaller credit still has value: On a hypothetical $35,000 Model 3 sedan, for example, a $3,750 credit would represent a sizable price reduction. Actual prices, however, are substantially higher right now.

Tesla, in any case, is acutely aware of the value of the credit to possible buyers. On Dec. 15, Elon Musk tweeted the company was releasing vehicles if the customer who originally reserved them couldn’t take delivery before January. That might allow new buyers to snag them.

“In other words, you may be able to get a Tesla before the $7500 U.S. tax credit drops in 2 weeks, even if you haven’t placed an order yet,” Musk subsequently tweeted. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Goldman, meanwhile, also raised questions about the effect lower-cost models will have on Tesla’s margins—a subject we covered in detail recently.

“As we believe the bulk of sustainable demand for the Model 3 likely resides at the lower end of the price curve (i.e., for the not-currently-offered base price $35,000 variant), we believe program margins will likely mix-down as time progresses,” Tamberrino wrote.

Email David Marino-Nachison at david.marino-nachison@barrons.com. Follow him at @marinonachison and follow Barron’s Next at @barronsnext.