Edit: On 9/8, it was announced that James Rojas will miss the season with a knee injury. That really hurts their depth, now making it mandatory that the freshman class be ready to contribute.

Outlook: Proponents of Penny Hardaway, Jerry Stackhouse, etc. – please look away, because Alabama is the site of (another) failed experiment in hiring a head coach with zero (none) college coaching experience. Johnson lasted four years, losing at least 15 games in all four seasons, and despite significant victories on the recruiting trail, he was never able to elevate the level of his team past “bubble-adjacent.”

Johnson’s recruiting classes from 2016-2018: 50th, 8th, 24th

Alabama’s KenPom finishes from 2017-2019: 56th, 57th, 64th

The Tide simply were not showing enough progress on the court, and in Johnson’s place, the athletic department made an aggressive hire: Nate Oats from Buffalo. As recently as the 2012-13 season, Oats was a high school head coach in Romulus, Michigan, but has since risen through the coaching ranks like a rocket bound for the moon. He looked like a future high major candidate after his Buffalo Bulls beat an immensely talented Arizona team in 2018, but he really kicked down the door of “rising star” status with a barnstorming 2018-19 campaign in which Buffalo went 32-4, played like a top 25 team by nearly all analytical measurements, and won an NCAA game for the second straight year.

It’s likely no surprise by this consensus ranking, but we at 3MW are all aboard the Oats Express hype train (particularly me, Jim, who voted them 17th). His teams play with an intensity and intelligence on both ends that can only come from a skilled coach and motivator, and his ability to reel in talent at an upstate New York MAC school bodes well for doing the same (and better) at an SEC institution, albeit one with limited basketball tradition.

Alright, enough intro. This Tide squad comes ready-made with an alpha initiator starter pack, as rising sophomore Kira Lewis looks to be one of the conference’s best players after impressing as a 17-year-old point guard. He hit a bit of a rookie wall down the stretch, but with an offseason to develop and playing for a “guard whisperer” in Oats, we expect a sizable leap this year.

Lewis will start alongside two of John Petty, James Bolden, a West Virginia grad transfer, and James Rojas, a highly-touted JUCO transfer from powerhouse Hutchinson CC. All are proven scorers, particularly when playing alongside a skilled creator. Petty is the poster child for “streaky shooter” in my college basketball dictionary, although I do have hope he’ll progress in a system more focused on taking *good* shots. Similar to Mississippi with Devontae Shuler and Breein Tyree, the Tide were much better last year when its returning guards shared the court together: