James R. Carroll

LCJ

After two polls in his favor, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has slipped behind Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes in his re-election bid, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll.

Grimes, Kentucky's secretary of state, now leads the five-term senator 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, the survey found. Libertarian candidate David Patterson had 3 percent support in the poll, while 7 percent of likely voters said they were undecided.

While Grimes' advantage is within the poll's margin of error, it represents a 6-point swing to the Democrat since the survey was last conducted in late August.

New: Grimes dodges questions about whether she voted for Obama





The latest poll — conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 2 by SurveyUSA for The Courier-Journal, Louisville's WHAS-TV, The Lexington Herald Leader and Lexington's WKYT-TV — was dismissed by McConnell's campaign.

"After fourteen straight public polls all showing Sen. McConnell with a clear lead, this Bluegrass Poll is obviously an outlier," spokeswoman Allison Moore said in a statement. "We're very comfortable with where this race stands and are confident Sen. McConnell will be re-elected in November."

But Grimes campaign manager Jonathan Hurst said the survey "reflects the overwhelming grassroots enthusiasm Alison and our campaign see everyday across the commonwealth."

An internal Grimes survey last week by pollster Mark Mellman also showed Grimes with a two-point lead.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said the Bluegrass Poll results either are an anomaly or the first sign of a Grimes trend.

"You've got a lot of Kentuckians who say, 'I don't want a Democrat who's going to back Obama but I'm sick and tired of McConnell,' " he said. "The question is: How does it balance out on Election Day?"

University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss cautioned that the 6-point swing to Grimes may not be real.

"I would take these results with a grain of salt, given that they deviate from everything we've seen recently," Voss said, referring to a number of other polls showing McConnell leading Grimes.

The Bluegrass Poll asked the opinions of 730 registered Kentucky voters, 632 of whom it determined to be likely voters in the Nov. 4 election. The latter group's responses were used to break down the Senate race, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Whereas the Aug. 28 Bluegrass Poll showed McConnell leading by 4 points, the latest poll, SurveyUSA said, shows "McConnell suddenly and unexpectedly looks wobbly."

The survey also found that 82 percent of likely voters said they had made up their minds, and only 16 percent said they might change theirs.

Perhaps the most alarming number for McConnell is that 57 percent of registered voters surveyed said that after 30 years in office, it's time for him to be replaced. That sentiment was shared by 33 percent of conservatives and 27 percent of Republicans.

"I don't think he's that concerned" about problems facing average Kentuckians, said Alma Harbin, 86, of Hodgenville.

A retired author of cookbooks, Harbin said she plans to vote for Grimes.

"He's taken enough from the government," Harbin said of McConnell. "It's time to let somebody else have a turn."

The poll suggests McConnell has had trouble convincing Kentuckians of one of his central arguments — that Grimes would be a rubber stamp for Obama's policies.

McConnell likewise has had difficulty making his case for re-election, as he also suffers from upside-down job approval numbers: 48 percent of registered voters in the poll viewed him unfavorably, while 35 percent viewed him favorably.

Kentuckians' opinions of Grimes are divided — the poll found 40 percent viewed her favorably, while 39 percent viewed her unfavorably.

Sabato said the survey shows "this has been a battle between Obama and McConnell fatigue."

Voss said the deeper numbers in the survey show Grimes' ads — one showing her trap-shooting and another featuring former President Bill Clinton — are helping her gain ground with conservative Democrats.

Jennifer Duffy, senior analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said that regardless of the mechanics of the poll, "we are still talking in the margins."

"This race is what it's always been: one of the closest in the country and it's going to stay that way — there's no breaking out there," Duffy said. "It's still going to be a 2-, 3-, or 4-point race at the end of the day."

Nationally, Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win control of the Senate. That would make McConnell majority leader if re-elected.

On the other hand, the poll showed McConnell maintaining the support of voters age 50 and older, a group most likely to turn out in a mid-term election.

Grimes is being buoyed by shifts among middle-income voters, those with some college education and Democrats in general. The survey found Grimes doing much better than in the last poll in Eastern and Western Kentucky, and she has improved her lead in the Greater Louisville area from 7 percent to 16 percent.

But just under a majority of registered voters — 49 percent — told pollsters that Grimes "will simply vote for President Obama's agenda and Kentucky needs someone who can stand up to the president."

That is what Shelley Stutzman, 44, of Louisville, believes.

"She is too much of a follower," said Stutzman, who works for Veterans Affairs. "I think she's going to follow what Obama and the rest of the Democrats want."

Even so, she said she is not enthused about backing McConnell. "I don't have a better option," Stutzman said.

A plus for McConnell in the poll is that 47 percent of registered voters said they believe Republicans would do a better job if they were to control the Senate. Forty-two percent sided with the Democrats.

Slightly more than a third of Kentucky's registered voters — 34 percent — think McConnell has done a bad job explaining his positions, while almost two-thirds — 63 percent — think he has done a good or fair job.

As for Grimes, 27 percent of Kentucky voters think she has done a bad job explaining her positions, while 66 percent think she has done a good or fair job.

Reporter James R. Carroll can be reached at (703) 854-8945. Follow him on Twitter@JRCarrollCJ.

MORE COVERAGE

Stories on Mitch McConnell







ABOUT THE POLL

THE BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on surveys conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 2 with 730 Kentucky registered voters by SurveyUSA. Of the respondents, 632 were determined to be likely voters. The poll was conducted for The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV in Lexington.

Seventy-five percent of likely voters were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, while the other 25 percent were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

For results among likely voters, the poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points. For registered voters, the sampling margin was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. In theory, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had all respondents with telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy.

Republishing or broadcasting the poll's results without credit to The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV is prohibited.



