Pour yourself a stiff one, the party's nearly over. That was the message issued by the International Monetary Fund last week.

The global economic momentum enjoyed in recent times is set to fade. The deadline? Probably the end of 2019.

The global economic momentum enjoyed in recent times is set to fade. Louie Douvis

However, even that timeline has been called into question by the global lender of last resort. Risks termed by the fund as "clouds" on the horizon amid "sunshine" are now "closer than we had anticipated", according to deputy director Mitsuhiro Furusawa.

The UK has cracks showing in its economic health. The housing market is starting to lose pace, particularly in its most expensive area, London. Overall, the market lost a billion pounds of value in 2017. Construction is still hovering close to recession territory, and new starts - the number of new builds being kicked off - have fallen by 8 per cent in the past quarter, compared to a year ago. They remain 14 per cent below their 2007 peak. UK factories are losing steam and exports have fallen.

The jobs market has proven itself a post-recession miracle. But record low unemployment has not been enough to convince policymakers at the Bank of England that the economy is robust enough to raise interest rates. May's much-hyped rate hike was called off, June's opportunity passed and odds for an August hike are mixed.

Poor economic performance at the start of the year, blamed on bad weather by Threadneedle Street and the European Central Bank (ECB), looks to be a longer-term slump.

If Italian defaults give France and Germany - its biggest debt holders - the flu, the UK will also get ill. Paul Harris

Six months ago, hopes were high that monetary policy could be smoothly tapered back from emergency levels towards something resembling normality. Money printing would soon end, and higher positive rates would also be introduced.

Now the eurozone slowdown is gathering pace, with the IMF set to downgrade its growth. Italy is a major worry. With debt to GDP of 132 per cent and a banking system still riddled with bad loans, it is a hazard to the entire eurozone system. If Italian defaults give France and Germany - its biggest debt holders - the flu, the UK will also get ill.

Fears of Italy's mounting debt pile come while the ECB's rates are still in effect negative, and money printing is at billions of euros each month. Central banks are still in crisis mode. This leaves the armoury for tackling a fresh downturn worryingly bare. In 2008, the UK's central bank cut rates from 5 per cent to almost nothing in a few months, cushioning the impact of the financial crisis. Now rates are at 0.5 per cent.

"The UK is not as well prepared as it would like to be for any negative impact on the economy. I think that's part of the reason that the Bank of England, and others, have been so anxious to get some ammunition stored up over the past few years. Until recently, they haven't been able to do that," explains John Wraith, UK economist at Swiss bank UBS.

While the UK's central bank's public statements have been reasonably hawkish about medium-term prospects, some signs suggest that it is trying to brace for a slowdown.

One stands out: it has been very careful to show markets that the floor - the true "zero" for interest rates - has moved.

Ordinarily rates would be cut by 1.5 per cent in order to mitigate a recession. The lowest level officials used to think rates could effectively go was 0.5 per cent. That means 2 per cent had to be reached in order to cushion a downturn.

In June, that thinking shifted. The lower bound for rates is now thought to be 0 per cent, so the base rate only needs to climb to 1.5 per cent before they can sell off the assets built up through money printing.

Global PMIs for manufacturing head up a busy data diary this week, with analysts on watch for signs of damage incurred amid the recent escalation in trade tensions.

"Our interpretation is that the Bank of England wanted you [the market] to be aware that rates can go to zero." This, Wraith says, is a decidedly dovish sign. "There was something relatively concerning that they needed to communicate that."

Only the US has lifted its interest rates into something approaching traditional norms.

"It doesn't have to be a crisis, just a loss of momentum. Circumstances have conspired to stop them getting rates higher. We're at a moment where we hope everything stays on track ... but you don't know if the cycle is going to allow you that time."

Several factors may mean that time is short. Emerging markets are struggling to cope with a stronger dollar and higher interest rates. These economies are an increasingly important driver of global economic expansion, generating - excluding China - 45 per cent of growth between 2010 and 2017. However, fears of climbing US rates have sparked a rout in emerging markets currencies, such as the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira in recent weeks.

Economists are concerned by the mountain of dollar-denominated debt in China. Tamara Voninski

While UK banks are exposed to emerging market meltdowns, a downturn in China could be even more serious. It would "have a significant impact on UK financial stability", the Bank of England warns. "What's different about this cycle is that it's China among the global economies that is slowing first," says Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Export-led China has usually followed a slowdown in demand from the US and Europe. But its economy is now showing signs of weakening.

Economists are concerned by the mountain of dollar-denominated debt in the country. Those fears have been heightened by a 10-day fall in the Chinese yuan against the dollar to a 2018 low. Each downward movement in the yuan against the dollar increases the pressure on emerging markets with large dollar debts.

"It's very big [corporate debt], the immediate problem is that the trade tensions and the slide in the renminbi [Chinese yuan] very recently started to unveil those flashpoints in Chinese corporate debt," warns Beamish. "Corporate debt is the major powder keg."

Chinese stocks on the Shanghai Composite index slid last week into a bear market - when an index plunges more than 20 per cent from its 52-week high. Stocks have fallen as trade tensions between the US and China ratchet up and Chinese firms struggle to service their debts.

China's government has invested heavily in its economy in recent years. But the benefits are wearing off at a bad time.

Like the US, which saw growth rise sharply after big tax cuts, China's government has invested heavily in its economy in recent years. But the benefits are wearing off at a bad time.

According to Mike Bell, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, the "sugar rush" of corporate tax cuts in the US is set to wane by 2020. This would coincide with higher interest rates at the Federal Reserve and spell trouble for the economy.

Risk-averse credit markets have sounded the first warnings, according to JPMorgan. The US bank pointed out earlier this year that the forward curve for the one-month Overnight Index Swap rate - a Fed rates proxy - had "inverted" at the two-year point. This is historically regarded as a recession omen. One that can predict either the end of the economic cycle or a Fed policy mistake.

An inverted Treasury yield curve - when short-term bonds have higher yields than long-term bonds - is a much-feared recession indicator. Historically, it has occurred when the market believes the Fed will have to imminently cut rates in response to an economic downturn. The indicator is not yet in "recession" territory. However, the spread between two-year and 10-year bond yields is narrower than it has been for a decade.

Yet even traditional economic warning signs such as this have been distorted by the money-printing efforts used to mitigate the last crisis, warns Bell. Therefore, while many signs suggest global growth is set to cool, the timing is hard to judge.

In 2017, most economists thought it would stop in 2020, but are starting to worry that might be overly optimistic. Many of the world's major economies, the UK included, have not yet recovered from their last boom and bust hangover.

The Sunday Telegraph, London