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Another report predicting slower growth in oilsands production over the next five years arrives just as short-term bitumen economics have taken a turn for the worse.

Northern Alberta production from the oilsands is expected to grow by 800,000 barrels per day to about 2.9 million bpd by 2020, think-tank IHS predicted in a new report Tuesday. That’s down by 280,000 bpd from the 1.08 million bpd growth it predicted last year when world oil prices were twice as high.

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Kevin Birn, Calgary-based director for IHS Energy, said the forecast assumes oilsands projects now under construction will be built despite low oil prices. He said the forecast was not reduced because Alberta elected an NDP government in May, despite its vow to review royalties and implement higher carbon prices, nor is it influenced by continuing pipeline construction barriers.

“Overall, the positive features that underpinned oilsands growth over the last decade are intact: large resource base, proximity to large consuming market and stable investment climate … but so are some challenges that faced the industry even prior to the price downturn, such as environmental concern, a history of capital cost escalation and market access,” he said.