TTC chair Karen Stintz would be a solid challenger to Rob Ford in a two-way contest for mayor, according to a new Forum Research poll.

Stintz’s numbers in a head-to-head matchup slipped in the latest poll to 43 per cent, but still virtually tied Ford’s 41 per cent, with 16 per cent undecided, the poll found.

Ford has championed a subway extension in Scarborough, recently debated at council, and has been spending significant time there. He campaigned with the Tory candidate in the Scarborough-Guildwood provincial byelection, which was won by Liberal Mitzie Hunter, a subway supporter.

Stintz also supports a Scarborough subway project, but her appeal among Scarborough residents remains weak at only 28 per cent, with Ford at 56 per cent.

Ford’s core support city-wide remains at about 40 per cent but he needs more than that to win, Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in an interview.

“Karen Stintz looks like she would give him a good run for his money, if it’s just the two of them,” Bozinoff said. “It falls apart when it’s three people.”

Olivia Chow, Trinity-Spadina NDP MP who says she’s mulling a run for mayor in 2014, remains what Bozinoff calls a Tier 1 candidate along with radio host John Tory.

“They’re heads above everybody else. They’re giant killers.”

Tory, former Ontario PC leader and failed 2003 mayoral candidate, would beat Ford in a head-to-head race, 52 per cent to 32 per cent. Chow beats Ford 54 per cent to 39 per cent.

The interactive voice response telephone poll conducted Monday of 1,368 Toronto adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Chow, Bozinoff noted, actually does better than Ford in Scarborough and in his Etobicoke stronghold. As well, Ford remains unpopular in the central city where Chow is strong.

However, Chow may not run, prompting Forum Research to ask what people thought of former TTC chair Adam Giambrone, who dropped out of the 2010 mayor’s race due to a sex scandal.

Giambrone was the losing NDP candidate in the Scarborough-Guildwood byelection, but the Forum poll found he could be a competitive mayoral candidate in 2014.

The survey had him at 35 per cent versus 45 per cent for Ford in a two-way race.

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“Is Giambrone so far off the beaten track? No I don’t think so. He’s not that far off,” Bozinoff said.

Campaigning can begin in January for the Oct. 27, 2014, municipal election. Ford speaks frequently about his re-election bid and would-be challengers are mulling things over and gauging their chances.

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