Article content

Two thousand years ago, the haruspices of ancient Rome peered at animal entrails to divine the future. Today’s seers have refined the technique, searching for clues to the fate of the global economy — and the modern omens aren’t promising.

We apologize, but this video has failed to load.

tap here to see other videos from our team. Try refreshing your browser, or Burlap, cattle hides and other modern omens of a shrinking global economy Back to video





The raw numbers suggest China’s domestic economy is slowing far faster than many economists were expecting. Consumer prices have hit their slowest growth level since the 2008/09 financial crisis, and imports are at their lowest level in five years.

A big reason for the slowdown could be the stagnation of middle-class incomes, borne out by a per-capita consumption that has fallen to 7.1% from 8.5% in 2009. It is a worrying development for investors, given that the growth story of the Chinese middle class has been widely considered one of the most important economic developments of the past decade. Keep reading.

[/np_storybar]

A gauge of growth rates for raw materials including cattle hides, tallow, plywood and burlap has been signaling economic contraction since September. The last time the growth rate of the JoC-ECRI Industrial Materials Price Index was falling to these levels, the world was mired in recession. At the same time, the price-tracking Bloomberg Commodity Index is near a 12- year low, with bear markets for more than half of the 22 items it measures.