A recent report prepared for Toronto about transit ridership predicts that even with both the 'Relief Line' (running from the Danforth and Pape south and west to University at King or Queen) and a frequent SmartTrack service at TTC pricing levels, the Yonge Line will be running at the limit of its capacity (36,000 passengers per hour) by 2041.

Crowding on the Yonge line not likely to get better. Image courtesy of Ian Muttoo

The report, produced by Dr Eric Miller at the University of Toronto's Transportation Research Institute, also looks at the impact of the planned extension of the Yonge Line north to Richmond Hill, and finds that without some further relief the additional passengers it would bring would push the Yonge line over capacity at peak times (37,800 passengers per hour) by 2041.

The projects would have a significant impact on transfers at Yonge and Bloor—the Relief Line and SmartTrack together could reduce them by half—but the report notes, "crowding still generally remains a concern due to the heavy volumes boarding the line from the north." The worst case—a Yonge extension built but without a Relief Line or SmartTrack—would result in 45,000 passengers an hour travelling southbound south of Bloor on the Yonge subway at peak times by 2041. The relief line alone would not be enough to bring passenger numbers down to capacity limits in that case.

Although the study was primarily focused on the future of the Yonge Line, it also says, "SmartTrack and the Relief Line are not significant competitors of, or substitutes for, one another... they largely serve somewhat different travel markets." The report suggests that the Relief Line's ability to attract large numbers of new riders (instead of just improving the commutes of existing ones) would be "limited" (see below). The path of the Relief Line clearly makes a big difference to the projected ridership, however. The route that the city appears to favour—Pape via Queen—would add around a third of the riders that would be generated by a path along King that had a station at Unilever.

Net new riders projected from a relief line between University and Danforth

An earlier report on SmartTrack ridership from the same organization found that net new ridership on that line might rise by as much as 48,000, with a TTC level fare and departures every five minutes, but if fares were higher or trains less frequent, ridership numbers would drop significantly (see below). That report also assumed no relief line would be built and that the SmartTrack Western Corridor would be built from Mount Dennis to the Mississauga Airport Convention Centre (a prospect that was rejected in favour of an LRT or a Bus Rapid Transit corridor).

Net new riders for SmartTrack for various scenarios

The numbers from the report have not normally been part of the conversation as York Region pushes for an extension of the Yonge Line as of late, nor have they been released to the public at the Transit Expansion Consultations currently underway. Why are the public not generally being presented with the predicted numbers? Are we not trusted to interpret them properly, or is it easier to steer us towards the Planning Department's preferred, less expensive, alignment without the numbers?

What is your take? You can email comments on any parts of the City's plan to TransitTO@toronto.ca or to theplan@metrolinx.com and find further information (including a schedule of the remaining public consultation sessions) at http://www.toronto.ca/TransitTO.