Written By: Grant Dowling (@TheGrantDowling)

(Sunday, January 22nd, 2017)

It’s been more than six months since we last witnessed the most respected and revered tournament in Counterstrike take place: the Major. And in those six months, many changes in these teams have occurred, both in terms of roster and performance, and we already know of some changes that are planned to happen following this tournament.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We want the major, and we got it. Without further ado, here are my predictions for what I expect from each participating team at ELEAGUE Atlanta: 2017, in alphabetical order, and my prediction for who will win the major at the end.

Astralis (Xyp9x, dupreeh, gla1ve, device, Kjaerbye)

After another underwhelming first two-thirds of 2016 from the best team out of Denmark, Astralis decided to part ways with former in-game leader, Finn ‘Karrigan’ Andersen, and replaced him with Lukas ‘gla1ve’ Rossander, after gla1ve stood-in for Marcus ‘Kjaerbye’ Kyærbye at ESL Cologne: 2016. And since the swap, Astralis finished 2016 on a dominant run, so much so that they are the wide-held favorite to win this upcoming major.

In the three LAN events that they finished 2016 with ‘gla1ve’ on the roster, the Danes finished as follows: 3-4th at IEM Oakland (November 20th), 2nd at ELEAGUE Season 2 (December 3rd), and 1st at ECS Season 2 Finals (December 11th). They finished 2016 on a steady upward pattern, seem primed for their progress to come to its full potential after over a month of competitive break, and are heavily favorited to win it all here in Atlanta.

EnVyUs (SIXER, kennyS, NBK-, apEX, Happy)

2016 was anything but kind to the once-major-champion French squad. After the experiment with Timothée ‘DEVIL’ Démolon instead of ‘kioShima’ did not pay off, the team turned to another LDLC player in Christophe ‘SIXER’ Xia, and not much improvement followed. nV ended the year flunking out of ELeague Season 2 Finals in 13-16th place, albeit, losing to eventual title winners, OpTic Gaming, and 3-4th at ECS Season 2 Finals, again to the same North American squad.

2017 has now come along, and while the prize pool at WESG Finals was the biggest CS:GO has ever seen ($1.5 milion), EnVyUs won the event, going home with a grand prize of $800,000. It was not the final we all were expecting, as tournament favorites, Virtus.Pro surprisingly lost to their Polish little brother, Kinguin, in the Semi-Finals, and nV ended up running over said little brother, 2-0. The competition at the tournament was quite underwhelming considering how much money was at stake. Outside of nV and Virtus.Pro, none of the other 22 teams qualified for Atlanta.

While each player on this squad may feel like 133,000 bucks (assuming each player got the fair cut without the organization getting a cut), some of these players will be left in the dust, as players from nV and their French rivals, G2, will be combining to make a French “super-team” after this major. The team will reportedly consist of EnVyUs’s ‘kennyS’, ‘apEX’, and ‘NBK-‘, and G2’s ‘shox’, ‘bodyy’, and ‘SmithZz’ as coach. As we will see this tournament, of course every player wants to win and finish the best they can, but how motivated are those that will be left off of the super team in a matter of days? I do not expect nV to gain three wins this major.

FaZe (karrigan, allu, kioShima, aizy, rain)

FaZe’s success in 2016 would line up perfectly with that of Astralis. Do you remember when you learned about parallel lines in middle school? Ya, parallel lines were discovered when mathematicians studied the success of FaZe and Astralis: they both occurred at the same time in 2016.

After their own year of uncertainty and unimpressive performances, the skill-studded multi-national European team got what so many suggested it needed to become a consistent serious threat in the professional scene: a real in-game leader. When ‘gla1ve’ replaced ‘karrigan’ on Astralis, FaZe was quick to pick up the heralded free agent, and they haven’t looked back. They finished out 2016 finishing 3-4th at ELEAGUE Season 2 (December 2nd), 5-6th at ECS Finals (December 10th), and 1-2nd at the ELEAGUE Major Qualifier (December 17th).

FaZe isn’t a team nearly ready to win a major title, but with the most glaring hole in their armor filled now that ‘karrigan’ is on board and comfortable, I expect them to regain legend status in Atlanta.

Flipsid3 (markeloff, B1ad3, WorldEdit, wayLander, electronic)

The CIS region team that everybody forgets about. I wouldn’t say F3 had a sub-par 2016 campaign because they did just as well as one would expect, finishing out 2016 14th in ESL Pro League Season 4, 7-8th at iBP Masters 2016, 5-6th at Dreamhack Winter, etc.

What does refresh my memory, however, was F3’s ability to perform and succeed where nobody expects them to do so. According to multiple sources, Andrey ‘B1ad3’ Gorodenskiy, F3’s in-game leader, had only double-digit hours played in CS:GO coming out of the scene-wide off-season leading up to 2017’s Dreamhack Leipzig, and still, F3 were able to place 1st at the event.

What I am personally excited to see from this team is if newest-addition Denis ‘electronic’ Sharipov can replicate his impressive performance from DH Leipzig (1.26 rating) in Atlanta against top tier pros. The kid is only 18 – could he be CS:GO’s next prodigy?

F3 consistently perform well at majors, for whatever reason against the best judgement of most, and I expect the same to occur in Atlanta. Maybe it is the veteran prestige on this team, maybe it is because they save strats for the major, I don’t know. But they find a way to finish better than everyone else expects.. And that is all that matters.

Fnatic (olofmeister, dennis, twist, KRIMZ, disco doplan)

2016 was the first year in CS:GO without a Swedish team winning a major title, and what ensued was a messy Swedish shuffle – a shuffle that happened twice – with a third edition reported to be happening after this major. With Freddy ‘KRIMZ’ Johansson getting swapped back to Fnatic from GODSENT in exchange for Jonas “Lekr0” Olofsson, Fnatic took GODSENT’s legend spot for Atlanta. However, it seems Jesper ‘JW’ Wecksell and Robin ‘flusha’ Rönnquist of GODSENT will be rejoining the three players on Fnatic that currently retain legend status after Atlanta back on Fnatic.

With that being said, this edition of Fnatic has not done anything much at all. With the lineup they have going into the major, Fnatic finished 9-12th in ECS Season 2 Regular Season (though, most of that season was played with ‘Lekr0’ instead of ‘KRIMZ’), but they did qualify for Dreamhack Las Vegas 11 days ago, which is set to take place in February.

Without a question, the names on this lineup have explosive potential: ‘olofmeister’ was the best player in all of 2015; ‘dennis’ is considered the pistol god of CS:GO; ‘KRIMZ’ is usually the constant rock whenever he is on the same squad as ‘olofmeister’; ‘disco doplan’ is the newcomer who had been time and time again impressive on Tier-2 Swedish squad Epsilon, and finally got brought up to play with the big dogs; and ‘twist’, a veteran-once-young-prodigy who is most known for his success and potential back on the old Swedish LGB squad, which also consisted of ‘olofmeister’, ‘KRIMZ’, and ‘dennis’.

Unfortunately, this is 2017 – not early 2016, not 2015, and not 2014. Fnatic will not make the playoffs at ELEAGUE 2017.

Gambit (AdreN, Zeus, Dosia, mou, HObbit)

The CIS-region squad that everyone forgets about. Seven months ago at the last major in Cologne, Gambit snuck into legend status, but since, have not been able to further their pedigree. They were able to pick up ex-Na’Vi IGL ‘Zeus’ and bring in new talent in the form of ‘HObbit’, who specifically would go onto win MVP at Dreamhack Winter 2016.

Yes, Gambit won DH Winter, but it was no major. In fact, it was far from a Tier-1 tournament. For instance, they 2-0’d Renegades in the final…in. the. final. For $50,000. Granted, ‘HObbit’ deservedly won that MVP award, finishing the tournament with a 1.21 rating, but he has yet to prove his ability against the top talent of the world on the main stage. Atlanta is his first chance to do so, and I am rooting for the young gun, but even if he lives up to the performance he teased us with at Dreamhack Winter 2016, I find it to be too hard for even that to pull this squad into the playoffs. I see Gambit going out in groups with a 2-3 record.

GODSENT (pronax, flusha, znajder, JW, Lekr0)

Speak of the devil. I could take most of what I said about EnVyUs, edit some words a bit, and place them right here. 2016 GODSENT was anything but successful, as the Swedish scene was in constant roster turmoil, and this squad was not protected from it. They spent 2016 playing in premier leagues, placing anything but first in small-name tournaments, and to top it off, ‘KRIMZ’ decided to go back to Fnatic after the original Swedish Shuffle, and giving Fnatic GODSENT’s legend spot for Atlanta in the process. GODSENT handily qualified for Atlanta at the Main Qualifier, however, going 3-0 without much difficulty. But this squad has yet to prove itself on the big stage and live up to the expectation that comes with having big names like ‘flusha’, ‘pronax’, ‘JW’, and ‘znajder’, four out of the original CS:GO Fnatic five that won Fnatic their first CS:GO major. ‘Lekr0’ has been a shining and promising new talent to the top-tier CS:GO scene, but this squad just has not lived up to the hype that came with the shuffle.

With reports that ‘flusha’ and ‘JW’ are headed back to Fnatic after this major, GODSENT does not seem like they will turn the curve this tournament, and should be knocked out in the group stage.

G2 (shox, RpK, SmithZz, ScreaM, bodyy)

While G2 were overall the more impressive French squad in 2016 between them and EnVyUs, they have not finished in a noteworthy place at a LAN tournament since they finished first at ECS Season 1 Finals back in June. Since then, it has been a string of poor finishes for the French, who have plans for three out of their five, as mentioned before, to join up with ‘kennyS’, ‘apEX’, and ‘NBK-‘.

There has not been anything before the scene-wide break that inspires any confidence in this team going into Atlanta, and I expect them to go out in groups as well. However, if the field is very kind to them, and the chips fall their way with the teams they get matched up with, I can see them squezing by with a 3-2 record, getting into the playoffs.

HellRaisers (ANGE1, bondik, STYKO, Zero, DeadFox)

The HellRaisers organization has found its logo back onto major stickers, this time, with a revampled, newlook lineup. While they do not posses any standout qualities that makes them a legend-worthy squad, I must say, they showed a very gritty and hard-earned performance at the Main Qualifier. Keep in mind, this team is very young, both in age and in pedigree, being the first majors for ‘STYKO’, ‘Zero’, and ‘DeadFox’. While I do not expect HR to make it into the playoffs, they should manage to grab a win or two.

mousesports (NiKo, chrisJ, loWel, Spiidi, denis)

Oh, mouz. Rather, oh ‘NiKo’.

2016 was not the year of the mouse. The European-mixed squad had a couple credible finishes in the form of 3-4th place at both ELEAGUE Season 1 Finals and ESL Pro League Season 4 Finals. Other than that, mouz have not seem to have found a consistent stride in their performance.

What is even more concerning is that their main carry in Nikola ‘NiKo’ Kovač was on a crazy hot streak for the first eight months of 2016 – and in those eight months, the only impressive performances that they were only able to come away with were those two top four finishes at ELEAGUE and ESL. Keyword from that last sentence? “Was.” Mouz’s main carry, who some called the best player in the world early on in 2016, was no longer crazy hot during the final stretch of 2016. What is even more terrifying is not that ‘NiKo’ is not insane, but that he was slumping at the end of last year. I repeat: Mouz’s main carry is in a slump.

Unless ‘NiKo’ found his mojo again over the last month, and somehow wills this team through a brutal Swiss-System to three bo1 wins, mousesports should find their way home before getting to the main stage. In fact, I have them in-game as my pick to be one of the two teams at the major that is bound to get shut out and get knocked out in groups with a record of 0-3.

Natus Vincere (s1mple, Edward, GuardiaN, seized, flamie)

What potential this squad holds. We have seen the best-of-the-best ability that ‘GuardiaN’, ‘flamie’, and ‘s1mple’ each have, time and time again. The second half of 2016, after Oleksander ‘s1mple’ Kostyliev left Team Liquid for good to join the CIS-region squad, however, brought nothing but lackluster performances for such a star-studded lineup. ‘GuardiaN’ finished the year in a slump, ‘flamie’ had not been the explosive rifler he was earlier in the year, and ‘s1mple’ just could not carry them enough.

Early on, Na’Vi found success, winning ESL One: New York, but have not done anything of note since, unless we count placing 3-4th at EPICENTER 2016, losing to eventual champions, Dignitas.

It is clear, however, that this team has not realized the full potential that the insanely high level of skill its roster on paper suggests, and much like how I will later discuss about Team Liquid, I feel as though the more than two months off from competitive play will have done this squad good and in a way slingshot the CIS-region squad toward a great performance at Atlanta. Many people are quick to hesitate when discussing where they predict Na’Vi to place at the major, but I firmly believe they have the ability to reach at least the semi-final.

And just for flavor, I almost chose them to be my choice for one out of the two teams that will qualify for the playoffs with a 3-0 record. It is a toss up between Virtus.Pro, Na’Vi, and Astralis. I went with VP, if you’re wondering.

North (RUBINO, cajunb, MSL, Magisk, k0nfig)

Their bootcamp site was sick. Let us just get that out of the way.

Ex-Dignitas seemed to have turned the corner in the latter part of 2016, but just as they were about to finish it on an upward trend, they started to falter, and kind of came back down to Earth with the way they were underperforming. This five was able to pull off an impressive EPICENTER 2016 victory, beating Virtus.Pro 2-1 in the final, but since, have not placed higher than 5-6th (ECS Season 2 Finals) at any event of notice.

Emil ‘Magisk’ Reif had a breakout year, finishing in HLTV’s Top 20 players of the year for the first time at #14. ‘MSL’ seems to have ditched the IGL-bot role and become a more constant contributor to the fragging power of this squad. If North can find their old swagger, especially now that they play for a Danish football organization with plenty of swagger, they can go far in this tournament, say, semifinal. I see them making it through to the playoffs with a record of 3-1.

OpTic Gaming (RUSH, mixwell, stanislaw, NAF-FLY, tarik)

What a rise to the near-top it has been for the North American squad. After the Green Wall picked up Tarik ‘tarik’ Celik from Counter Logic Gaming, they turned the corner and had a series of events with very impressive finishes: 1st at Northern Arena 2016: Montreal (beating G2 in the final, 2-1), 1st at ELEAGUE Season 2 Finals (beating Astralis in the final, 2-1), and 2nd at ECS Season 2 Finals (losing to Astralis in the final, 0-2).

OG comes into Atlanta ranked #2 on HLTV’s rankings, and deservedly so, seeing as how they finished 2016 on a rampage. It seems that once this squad gets the momentum going, they are a hard runaway boulder to stop.

However, it seems OpTic caught some typical North American luck, as they have to face the historical NA-Killers in Virtus.Pro in their first match in Atlanta. VP is known for always beating North American teams, no matter how good they have ever been coming into facing them. The reason this is bad luck and a problem for OG is because being a momentum-based squad, losing to a team like ‘Virtus.Plow’ would be a pretty demoralizing way to kick off a major campaign.

I do believe OG can find a way to make it through to groups, but seeing as how it would be the first time for any of these five players playing in the playoffs at a major, I lack confidence in their experience to perform at a high enough level under pressure and on a stage more powerful than they have ever experienced before.

SK Gaming (FalleN, coldzera, fer, TACO, fox)

2016 belonged to nobody but the Brazilian powerhouse. Winning both majors of last year, and with two of their players making up HLTV’s top 2 spots in its Top Players of 2016 (2, ‘FalleN’, 1, ‘coldzera’), SK looked like their reign had no end in sight.

Unfortunately, Fernando ‘fer’ Alvarenga had to leave the team for about a month after he came down with an injury in August, and SK Gaming’s performance has not bee the same since. While they did manage to place pretty well at many top-tier events, like 3-4th at ESL One: New York, 3-4th at EPICENTER 2016, 2nd at ESL Pro League Season 4 Finals, 2nd at IEM Oakland, and 3-4th at both ELEAGUE Season 2 Finals, and ECS Season 2 Finals, these finishes are not the types of major-winning performances we are used to seeing from this core.

To add insult to injury, Lincoln ‘fnx’ Lau has been sidelined by the team due to his incendiary relationship with the rest of the team. Former FaZe awper, Ricardo ‘fox’ Pacheo of Portugal will be the stand-in for SK, but he is everything but a good replacement for someone of ‘fnx’s talents.

SK seemed to have been going on a downward streak, and with a chink in their armor in ‘fox’ standing-in, do not be surprised when SK cannot retain its title as major-winners after Atlanta. They will surely make the playoffs, but not team is going to win a major playing 4v5 :>

Team Liquid (Hiko, EliGE, nitr0, Pimp, jdm64)

Team Liquid. The once-NA hope. After quite the major runs in both majors last year, finishing 3-4th and 2nd at Colubmus and Cologne, respectively, the four Americans and Dane found themselves on a steady downhill curve. Valve’s new rule, which would limit the Coach’s ability to be an IGL, suddenly put the calling responsibilities onto ‘Hiko’s back, and he has been under-performing since. According to their former coach, ‘Peacemaker’, a dispute with management forced the coach to seek giving his coaching services elsewhere.

After Cologne, where TL surprised everybody, going on a convincing tear through Na’Vi and Fnatic in the playoffs eventually submitting to Luminosity Gaming in the final, they did not finish higher than 3-4th (ESL One: New York) in any competition. The last time we saw Liquid in 2016 was at ECS Season 2 Finals on November 23rd. TL found a replacement for ‘Peacemaker’ in the middle of Northern Arena 2016: Montreal in former Immortals player, ‘Zews’ (November 11). Since this two week window, we have not seen the North American squad play competitively, barring a fourth-place finish in Dreamhack: Las Vegas 2017’s North American Qualifier, where TL was forced to play with 110-140 ping (they were bootcamping in The Netherlands in preparation for the major) and while saving strategies for the major, as confirmed by Entryfragger, Jonathan ‘EliGE’ Jablonowski.

It surprises me how quickly spectators are to write off the team that retains four out of five players that made it to the first final of a major for any North American team, simply because they have not played a legitimate match in over two months. Sure, they were boosted by eventual HLTV #4 player, Oleksander ‘s1mple’ Kostyliev, but star young players like ‘EliGE’ and ‘nitr0’ can hold their own, especially on LAN. After two months of time to thoroughly practice with their new coach, and based off of what most think they will see from TL, I expect the North American + Dane squad to surprise most, and make it out of groups. Plus, the last two majors, nobody expected Liquid to do much at all, especially because of how lackluster their online reputation is. But they always find a way to scrap it together on LAN. It would be unwise to expect any different this time around. They have the veteran experience and capability to at least scrape by with a 3-2 group-stage record.

Virtus.pro (TaZ, NEO, pashaBiceps, Snax, byali)

The oldest current lineup in CS:GO is still going strong. 2016 brought VP some great victories, including 1st at ELEAGUE Season 1, 1st at Dreamhack Bucharest 2016, 2nd at ESL One: New York, and 2nd at EPICENTER 2016. They even finished the year with positive win percentages on all eight maps used in 2016 – the only team to do so.

This squad is the most seasoned and experienced five at this major, and we all already know how scary VP is on LAN. In a way, Team Liquid is like them a lot: they underperform online, people lower their expectations for LAN events, and bam!: they find a way to out-do expectations and finish with flying colors on LAN. VP should breeze through the group stage (my pick in-game to go 3-0) and here is why:

Atlanta is as great of an opportunity as this squad may ever get again: SK Gaming is using a far from formidable stand-in; Astralis, though primed to bring their first major victory home, has yet to prove themselves worthy of even a final appearance; Na’Vi has not lived up to its unprecedented potential yet; Team Liquid is one big wildcard; Fnatic and GODSENT weakened the dominant Swedish team by splitting the legendary names into two different teams; history says OpTic will not get passed Virtus.pro; G2 and nV are on the verge of a huge French shuffle; FaZe has yet to prove itself worthy on a big stage; HellRaisers are mostly young bucks on the block; mousesports’s main carry is in a slump; North have been declining; Flipsid3 has not shown any promise to improve beyond retaining their legend status; and Gambit…well, even the Sex God himself will not be able to will that squad past groups. Bonus points: NiP was slaughtered by Vega Squadron in the biggest upset in CS:GO history at the Main Qualifier.

The point is, who standing in Virtus.pro’s way is actually a more legitimate threat to VP than VP is to them? Before, SK Gaming would have beat them, as they did in the semifinals of Cologne 2016. But VP was the only team that tournament to give SK a run for their money. Now they are playing 4v5.

The Poles should plow through this field, and with such an opportunity on LAN, go home with their second CS:GO major title (first since ESL One: Katowice 2014). Full control, my friends.

P.S. I am very excited to see the Swiss-System on the main stage at a major for the first time.

P.S.S. Look out for my recaps after the major 😉