HALIFAX—The New Democrats begin the fourth week of the campaign tied with the Liberals for second place, but their support could collapse by the time voters go to the polls, according to a new survey.

An Angus Reid poll shows one quarter of Canadians say they would vote for the New Democrats, an increase of four percentage points since early this month.

That puts the party in a tie for second place with the Liberals, who are also at 25 per cent after seeing their support drop by two percentage points over the same period.

The Conservatives remain in first place with 36 per cent of the support, down by two percentage points but still a double-digit lead.

Support for the Bloc Québécois came in at 9 per cent nationally and the Green Party was picked by 5 per cent of survey respondents.

It remains to be seen whether the NDP can remain at this level long enough for voters to cast their ballots. The party was also tied with the Liberals after the debates in the 2008 election but this did not last or translate into a large number of seats.

The survey also notes that New Democrat support is considered soft.

“There is a clear difference among people who say they are going to vote for the NDP and the other parties,” said Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion, noting that 41 per cent of respondents who said they would vote for the NDP also said they could change their mind before the May 2 election.

The other parties claim much stronger support.

Just 26 per cent of Conservative supporters, 28 per cent of Liberal supporters and 21 per cent of those who said they would vote for the Bloc said they could change their minds when asked how certain they were of their decision.

“Jack Layton did quite well in that debate and he’s attracting the attention of a lot of people, but he hasn’t really locked down their votes yet,” said Mukerji.

“I think the NDP historically has had a bit of a hard time closing the deal.”

Much of the growth in support also comes from Quebec, where the NDP is at 26 per cent.

That is a big leap from the 2008 election result of 18 per cent of the vote — and puts them in second place ahead of the other federalist parties — but it is unclear whether it could translate into seats as it is still well behind the Bloc, which has 36 per cent.

The pollster also said the party could suffer if anti-Conservative supporters decide to vote strategically to try to prevent Stephen Harper from winning a majority, a recurring theme the Liberals and Bloc spin to their advantage.

“A lot of people are flirting voting for the NDP but it’s not a solid thing at all. That could quickly evaporate as . . . a Tory majority becomes a little bit more of a possibility (and) I think you will see some of those votes from the NDP peeling off towards the Liberals,” said Mukerji.

That phenomenon is nothing new to the NDP and so Layton has been campaigning just as hard against Michael Ignatieff as he has against Harper, accusing the Liberal leader of cozying up to the Conservatives on issues like the war in Afghanistan.

“I think people are realizing increasingly that they have a choice, unlike what the old parties always say, which is that you can choose only one door or the other,” Layton told reporters in Halifax on Sunday, when asked how he would grow his support with only two weeks left.

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“I think a lot of Canadians don’t like to be told what to do, and so we’re seeing a lot of enthusiasm on the ground.”

Party officials say they are running a growth campaign, hoping to win new seats in some ridings but aiming to improve organization and boost the profile of NDP candidates in others.

The online survey of a representative sample of 2,032 Canadian adults took place April 15 to 16 and the margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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