I think the Renegades have new meta. And it’s a very risky strategy, but it paid off in the first map of their BO3 with Tyloo

This is a serious tournament. The winner of this BO3 gets automatic entry into the qualifier for the Major. This is no time to be playing around. Yet, in two of the three maps, Renegades did this risky strategy (Map 1: Cobblestone, and Map 3: Cache). Two times. This is a serious strategy.

So what is it?

If you win rounds 1-3 as T Side: Don’t full buy into round 4.

Leave yourself enough money such that 1-2 bomb plants in round 4, 5 or 6 will allow you to full buy in rounds 5 and 6 regardless of outcome.

And, importantly, it’s almost better to lose round 4 than to win it.

Ok, so why does this work? It’s all to do with resetting the CT economy. Here’s how the economy works:

This is important, even for silvers

Round 1: T Side Win

After winning Round 1, buy SMGs into round 2.

You expect the CTs to force buy (since they can’t do a full buy round 3 anyway)

Pros: CTs can’t get any rifles

Cons: CTs will buy helmets, hard to kill at range

Avg CT Money At Start of Round 2: $150 + $1400 (loss bonus) = $1550

Avg CT Money At End of Round 2: $400 (full buy, leave a bit of cash, or get kills)

Round 2: T Side Win

After winning Round 2, buy SMGs into round 3.

You expect the CTs to be full eco this round.

Pros: CTs can’t get any rifles

CT Money At Start of Round 3: $400 + $1900 (loss bonus) = $2300

CT Money At End of Round 3: $2300 (full eco, no buy)

Round 3: T Side Win

After winning Round 3, buy SMGs into round 4. Your money, after buying at the start of round 4, needs to be such that a loss without plant ($1400) is enough for a full buy in round 5

You expect the CTs to do a full buy

You don’t expect full grenades or utility from them, they will be slightly weak.

CT Money At Start of Round 4: $2300 + $2400 (loss bonus) = $4700

CT Money At End of Round 4: ~$450 (a few kills)

Strategy Time

Ok now we have a result. The T’s have just played round 4 in a weaker position than the CTs (they have full utility, but worse guns (SMGs and Tec-9s))

T Side (Round 4) Full Utility Weak Guns (SMGs + Tec-9)

CT Side (Round 4) Low-Moderate Utility Strong Guns



The T Side should attempt to milk out the CT utility, and then make a close quarters site take. If they get a bomb plant, even better for them. Now, we assume the Ts should get a few trade kills, so at least 2-3 CTs should die. Think about where the CT economy is, right now. It’s in the toilet.

If the Ts win round 4

CT Money At Start of Round 5: $450 + $2900 (loss bonus) = $3350

This is enough cash, with two saved guns, to do a force buy into round 5. And, look at the T economy, they’re doing super well.

T Side (Round 5) Full Utility Strong Guns

CT Side (Round 4) Low Utility Medium-Strong Guns



If the CTs win round 4

CT Money At Start of Round 5: $450 + $3500 (win + defuse bonus) = $3950

This is enough cash, with two saved guns, to do a full buy into round 5. And, look at the T economy, they’re doing fine.

T Side (Round 5) Full Utility Strong Guns

CT Side (Round 4) Low-Medium Utility Strong Guns



The Ts are in a stronger position than the CTs at the beginning of round 5, regardless of the outcome of round 4. And they have one massive bonus:

IF THE Ts WIN ROUND 5, AND THE CTs WIN ROUND 4, THE CT ECONOMY IS RESET

And that’s the crux of the argument. Regardless of outcome, the Ts will have a strong buy into round 5, while the CTs are unlikely to have everything they want. All else being equal, that’s a good situation. And, if the Ts have lost round 4, and win round 5, they have put the CTs in a dire position of choosing whether to Eco or force buy. The mental pressure on the CTs is immense to win round 5, and any casualties will severely affect their mental and financial game.

Logs from the game:

Cobblestone Logs

The important features of these logs are:

Full T Buy in Round 5 (after losing round 4, this can only happen if they saved a chunk of cash)

CTs were fully bought in round 5 (they all survived), but after dying in round 5 you can see Attacker only has a famas

This puts the Ts in total economic control after winning round 6 (which would usually happen after round 5 if some of the CTs had died in round 4)

Videos of the Rounds

Here are the videos of the rounds:

If I recall correctly, they had T side casualties of about 2 during Round 3. Meaning the Ts actively rebought SMGs in round 4. This is not usual meta (keeping 1 or 2 SMGs into round 4, and buying rifles). And Cache was the extreme version of this. Here are a list of carried guns:

Cobblestone 1 x MP7 1 x Mac-10 1 x P-90 1 x AK-45 1 x Tec-9

Cache 3 x Mac-10 1 x P-90 1 x Tec-9



Even if this Jayden round is common meta, the level the Renegades took it to is extreme. Buying 1 or 0 rifles, and only carrying 4 Primary Weapons is a clear demonstration they would prefer to dominate round 5 financially, rather than round 4:

Cobblestone Financials: After Finishing Buying Start of Round 4: $3,520 average remaining on each Start of Round 5: $4,920 average $1,400 (Loss) = $1,400 net change

Cache Financials: After Finishing Buying Start of Round 4: $4,340 average remaining on each Start of Round 5: $6,960 average $1,400 (Loss) + ( $600 x2 + $300 x2 + $300 )/5 (Approx Kills + Bomb Plant) + $800 (Plant) = $2,620 net change



Here’s three examples of (recent) NiP meta (with Threat as tactician).

On Cobblestone they buy up rifles (to get 4 rifles total), their economy, however, follows the Renegades economy above (they farmed quite a lot of kills and have ~4.9k per player after rifle buys).

On Train they do a full rifle buy, and their economy is not poised for a round 5 full buy on a loss.

On Cache, they opt for two rifles (and buy one over an already held SMG, they even rifle bought during round 3). Consider the difference, 2 Rifles + 3 SMGs vs. 4 SMGs + 1 Tec-9. There is a vast difference in firepower. Especially against a team that comprehensively dominated you yesterday. This is dedication on the part of Renegades to fully lock down the meta.

Train

Cache

Cobblestone

Here is an example (in the same tournament, previous game against Immunity) on Mirage:

T’s win the 1st through 3rd Rounds, survive with 3 members and the following: 1 x P-90 1 x MP7 1 x UMP 1 x Tec-9 3 x Head + Armour

Their team money at start of round 4 (per player) is: $6,040

I think, due to AZR buying up AK super quickly, they opted to not do the eco-buy strategy (look how long they waited for the other 4 players to buy, given AZR’s buy. They each individually had enough money to perform their own personal buy, so they weren’t discussing trading weapons etc. They were deciding if they eco-buy strat was worth bringing out at that point.)

After Spend Start Of Round Player + Equipment Total Spend Weapon Armour Flash Smoke Molly 1150 5950 USTILLO 4800 2700 1000 200 200 300 400 3050 7850 AZR 4800 2700 1000 200 200 300 400 5300 6200 Spunj (Flash + Tec-9 + P90 + HArmour) 900 200 300 400 50 5300 yam (MP7 + HArmour) 5250 4750 200 300 1500 4900 jks (Molly + UMP + HArmour) 3400 2700 200 200 300

Total Money Left Per Player $2,210

If they had gone for the eco-buy after AZR did his buy, it would have looked like this:

After Spend Start Of Round Player + Equipment Total Spend Weapon Armour Flash Smoke Molly 3850 5950 USTILLO (with Spunj’s P90) 2100 1000 200 200 300 400 3050 7850 AZR 4800 2700 1000 200 200 300 400 5300 6200 Spunj (Flash + Tec-9 + HArmour) 900 200 300 400 4400 5300 yam (MP7 + HArmour) 900 200 200 300 200 4200 4900 jks (Molly + UMP + HArmour) 700 200 200 300

Total Money Left Per Player $4,160

And if they’d done the eco buy at the onset, it would have looked like this:

After Spend Start Of Round Player + Equipment Total Spend Weapon Armour Flash Smoke Molly 3850 5950 USTILLO (with Spunj’s P90) 2100 1000 200 200 300 400 4700 7850 AZR 3150 1050 1000 200 200 300 400 5300 6200 Spunj (Flash + Tec-9 + HArmour) 900 200 300 400 4400 5300 yam (MP7 + HArmour) 900 200 200 300 200 4200 4900 jks (Molly + UMP + HArmour) 700 200 200 300

Total Money Left Per Player $4,490

If they had gone with the eco-buy, they could have saved a few grenades etc, with a set strategy (e.g. quick A execute) Especially good as dead CTs will drop single grenade and gun utility as they fall.



My point here is that, when given the option to do it, and they had the perfect option to do it (Spunj holding P90 and Tec-9) they didn’t execute it. I think they were either:

Saving it for a game/seried that mattered, or:

Using it as an anti-strat against Tyloo

TL;DR

T Side, win rounds 1-3. Only buy SMGs. Plan round 4’s economy with enough to full buy in round 5. Do your best to reset the CT economy (if you lose round 4), and at the end of round 5, you will be in complete control of the first half.

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