As things are decided i will just make a post for the records to see how much of my predictions and concerns come true than:

I allready saw harmony blossom as a death horse than back, now with the time locking my personal view on it is even worse, i predict it’s the most useless, not needed, total wrong approach ZEC could go, doomed to fail bevor it even started.

List of my concerns, points, predictions for the records. For each prediction becoming true i would like to get a golden star attached to my nickname

the GPU algo-B in general: I think it’s a bad idea because by than gpu pow mining will be mostly allready non profitable in most worldwide regions. Reason: ETH constantinople upgrade lowering ETH rewards from 3 to 2 will shift and drive out allready a lot of POW gpu miners ETH switching to POS maybe at the same time than the release of blossom harmony or maybe a bit later will cause the biggest POW gpu miner shifting we have seen. As all other gpu coins can’t take that hashrate anyway, the result will that only the gpu miners in the lowest electricity cost regions will be able to contineu POW mining.

POW mining in general: it will get more and more centralized to the regions with lowest electricity prices. Both algos, the current asic one and the new algo-B one will have huge mining concentration in china and some former soviet regions due the very low electricity prices there (2 - 5 cents/kw/h). If this is the intention, so it be, i see it has a very negative impact hurting fair distribution a lot.

algo-B mining pool issue: I have a feeling this will be one of the big problems the algo-B will face. Without knowing all details on how this will be managed i predict that a single pool will have more than 60% of the networks hashrate, mostly the pool with most financial background to handle the various time lock issues…

Parasite mining: I call this the mining where miners only come at lowest difficulty through auto-algo-profit mining pools. While the time locking is mostly designed to prevent this i think it will actually encourage these parasite auto miners. As the main intention of these miners is to mine at lowest difficulty they still will do so, mostly resulting in big hashrate spikes on the algo-B. These eventually are even more encouraged by services like nicehash which anyay pay them out in BTC and these services will take the risk but payout the miner immediatly. Prediction: It won’t fix the issue with these miners but resulting in even bigger hashrate spikes.

Inflation: While many wrongly think this will help ZEC inflation i predict the opposite. As i’am not aware that the algo-A block reward will be lowered the result from algo-B is just that we get more coins in the very same time, no matter they are time locked for given periods. The end result especially after 50 weeks is just even more ZEC in circulation, more ZEC than now released and issued and more inflation. The fact that they are time locked doesn’t change the fact that they allready excist. In case both algos are set to 1:1, the inflation will just double over 50 weeks or to keep it simple as the prediction: Inflation will be higher!

Price: Due the last point of more inflation the price will suffer. While the intention might be to keep the price more stable i absolutly fail to see how this can happen with even more coins issued and higher inflation. Time locking of algo-A asic mined coins may achieved this, but with an additionaly algo and addtional block rewards i absolutly fail to see how this can have a positive impact on price, actually i bet on a negative impact. Again, the time locking of coins doesn’t change the fact they are “present” and issued allready when mined. Time locking in my elementary calculations and logic would anyway only have a positive effect for at most 50 weeks, than things are back to normality. Prediction: BTC/ZEC price will dive further, the longer after blossom harmony release the more getting worst after 50-60 weeks after introduction of blossom harmony time locking!

Legal issues: While it has mentioned several times “no problem here” i doubt the full impact of time locking miner rewards from a legal law point of view has been proper researched so far. I missing law consultation here at max… In my opinion there is a big chance that time locking may change the whole status of ZEC from a pure payment coin into something else, be it a security or whatever. I just see this crying for unseen problems. Prediction: There will arise soon or late some legal problems eventually changing the whole issue at a later point and having lot of working hours wasted and/or putting ZEC forcing into a worse category of cryto assets.

Algo-B Network issues: In my opinion there is a real high chance this algo-B will be a security hole in ZEC POW mining due several reasons:

a.) Mostly it will be a very weak on relying on gpu’s. Wouldn’t ETH switch to POS i wouldn’t have that many concerns here, but after having them switching making millions of gpu’s unprofitable literally over night i see a huge danger here arising from bad actors.

b.) The attack cost per hour will be very low in my opinion on this algo-B. I predict an attack cost per hour below $5,000.

c.) I can’t see any logic behind helping algo-B increasing network security, actually i see, at least so far, only how it lowers the whole network security. Prediction: Exchanges may rise confirmations needed for ZEC.

d.) % of blocks obtained at a zero excess cost in difficulty will be on this algo at least 7.5% on this algo-B.

Time locking favouring big mining facilities: It will favour absolutly big mining facilities in low electricity cost regions. It’s not clear from the blossom statement if this is to be the intention by the meaning of “loyal miner” if this is wished, but the outcome will be just like this. The time locking favours big mining facilities extremely compared to other higher electricity costs. I made allready a simple calculation in another topic today showing that the 2 cent per kw/h mining facility will have covered their while year electricity costs allready very soon within the first months of time lock mining algo-B. Means there is no big burden to them compared to the worldwide average miner at average or high cost electricity costs investments. Running a 1,000 gpu mining facility in a 2cent region will cost just as much as ~$36,000 per year, means it’s a very low investment they face with time locking while having still way higher liquidity and are still able to dump their mined coins as electricity costs are realy fast recoved even under time locked. Additionally they get a free bonus of having by algo-B design mercenary, unloyal, part miners forced out leaving them the battlefield for FREE. Prediction: Algo-B hashrate will be “controlled” by low electricity miners even more than the current asic algo!

Unfairness btw Algo-A and Algo-B. Having the new algo-B time locked mining rewards while algo-A not is just unfair. This cries just again for community problems, fully understandable by the way. Prediction: While one of the intensions might have been to bring back the gpu community this will fail and bring a lot of trouble. It might be bring back some miners sure, but community is something different in my opinion. I might be wrong on this one eventually, we will see how it works out. At least it will cause a lot of trouble as long as the asic algo-A isn’t time locked

Loyal algo-B miner will profit more: This is an argument i personally absolutly disagree. There are so many flaws with this assumption that i struggle to mention them all why this is at least misleading and incorrect.

a.) Volatility: To make such assumption someone must speculate on a higher ZEC price at very least to compensate for inflation and volatility. This is highly speculative as we have seen in whole 2018. Actually i would say that due high volatility the algo-B time locked miner is exposed to a very higher risk getting a victim to volatility than a winner on it. The last 12 months have shown that ZEC/BTW went from ~0.05 to ~0.015 today, leave alone the USD value. Prediction: Time lock miners will suffer from volatility!

b.) Hodl compared to time locking: Every miner has the possibility to hodl even without time locking. But with time locking the holder has lost basic freedom over his assets for a long time. I consider 50 weeks in crypto as a long time. The better bet for sure would be instead of buying hardware just to buy ZEC and hold it with all the freedom to do whatever something considers at a given time. Prediction: Lot of unhappy algo-B miner posts/topics on the different social networks/forums.

c.) Increased inflation versus more profitability for time locked mining: Again, the increased inflation isn’t working for the time locked mined coins, it’s working against them, hence i predict again that in most cases the time locked reward will have less BTC value compared to the moment they are mined at.

d.) Limted 50 weeks effect with. After i’am pretty sure that after 50 weeks the daily supply is back to normality i could be that in exactly 50-55 weeks after blossom release and algo-B time locked mining starts i predict that this will be the worst period within the first 55 weeks for the BTC/ZEC pair as we are just back to full release of daily supply from 2 mining algos/

e.) there is a good chance that at some time miners due volatility or other needs sell their private keys for a given wallet at a cheaper price as they are exciting and/or a black market on hacked/compromised mining wallets at cheaper ZEC prices. Up to the whole setup time locking is introduced there is mostly even a big chance mining pools just vanish with the mining rewards. Highly speculative assumptioms of course, no doubt, but a good chance these take place…

f.) In case of a fork, which will mostly happen soon or late the time locked algo-B holders are in a disadvantage as well. They don’t have the full amount of coins they own in theory in their wallet. Again, prediction: Time locked holders will have way more disadvantages and not a single advantage!

g.) other issues why time locked profitability won’t be as good as immediatly released rewards for the miners like gains from trading, shorten, using, buying, whatever.

Founders Reward: With a new algo-B my assumption is there will be as well a new founder reward attached to it. As i’am not aware of any proposal/correction of the Founders Reward % on the algo-A equihash based on my assumption is that there will be more funds released, be it the foundation, investors and/or zcash company. I guess these are not time locked. In case i’am wrong with one of the these assumptions for the algo-B founders reward please correct me. In case my assumptions are correc than we have an increased Founders reward taking place. This might be for good or bad and i’am not commenting the impact for the foundation/investors/zcash here but just the impact. Prediction: This will increase directly as mostly not time locked ofZEC ciruculation or if time locked delay but later higher ZEC circulation. . Actually if my assumptions are right it’s a smart move to increase the Founders Reward automaticaly…

Transaction times: As it’s mentioned that transaction times still take up to 40 minutes i can’t see any improvement here. While most projects work on lower tham as much as possible we just keep some dissatisfied 40 minutes while on many other projects we see nearly immediate transacton finalization.

Prediction: Some direct privacy coin competitors will outperform us at least in transaction time, mostly in capacity of transactions as well within the next 2 years.

Equihash 150,5: By coincidence i’am trying to mine BEAM there with some gpu’s for some days now. Just out of curiousity to see all the features BEAM wallet has with cpu mining and so on. From what i see the AMD gpu’s get nearly no hashrate there for some reason (Didn’t read throug the whole topics yet). However, why was equihash 150,5 choosen and not ProgPOW which was favourized so far? Just of couriosity. Prediction: highly efficient FPGA’s will enter this algo soon.

Sidenote on Equihash 150,5, it seems the gpu must be at least a nvidia 1070 and AMD cards are not working any good on it, which again means everything on hand that the network will be a relativly week one.