Faced with declining ridership and a projected $25-million shortfall, the TTC intends to cancel planned service improvements and crack down on youngsters who ride for free by making kids as young as 10 get photo ID.

According to a ridership update released on Wednesday, the commission has carried 250.3 million passengers so far this year, which is slightly less than numbers posted at the same time last year and 7.4 million fewer than the amount the TTC was anticipating by this point in 2016.

Commission staff project that by the end of the year, the agency will fall short of its originally-projected 553 million rides by up to 13 million trips, leaving it with a $25-million hole in its budget.

In order to make up the shortfall, the commission has already identified about $10 million in savings that include lower-than-anticipated costs of fuel, hydro, and employee benefits. To save an additional $1.5 million, the TTC intends to abandon service improvements planned for the fall of this year. That leaves a gap of about $13 million that the commission needs to bridge.

With no guarantee that ridership will improve next year, the agency is also planning to scrap improvements planned for 2017, which would save $6 million next year.

“We’re going through sort of austerity measures to see where we can find additional savings inside the organization,” said TTC spokesman Brad Ross. He said that measures the agency is considering include putting a freeze on non-essential hiring, having staff opt out of attending conferences, and even reducing office furniture expenses.

Ross said he couldn’t specify which TTC routes would lose out as a result of the decision to cancelservice improvements, because the agency had planned to add service to parts of the network that showed increased demand. “That growth isn’t there so we’re not adding that service,” he said. “We’re not going to add service where none is justified. That’s not prudent planning.”

But Suhail Barot, a spokesman for advocacy group TTCriders, warned that scrapping the improvements is an “extremely stupid idea.” He argued that more service would actually induce more people to ride public transit.

“Anybody who’s taken the TTC knows how overfull the service is, how crammed you are on the trains and the buses. You need to make the TTC an attractive proposition for the average Torontonian. And you’re not doing that by cutting services,” he said.

The TTC report identifies several factors that could be contributing to this year’s “soft” ridership numbers, which it says are consistent with an industry-wide trend that has seen trips on public transit decline this year in places like Los Angeles and Montreal.

Staff believe the most significant factor is employment, which “historically has been the single best predictor of TTC ridership.” The report cites city data that shows while the number of employed Toronto residents has essentially remained the same since 2013, an increasing number are employed in temporary or part-time work.

The $141.50 price of a Metropass “may not be a viable purchase for people who use the TTC to commute to their part-time jobs,” the report said.

Sales of adult Metropasses, which represent 47 per cent of all customer journeys, fell last year after the TTC raised the price from $133.75. Over the next 12 months sales declined 3.6 per cent compared to the year before.

The report estimated that employment conditions, coupled with the decreasing popularity of Metropasses, could account for 5 million fewer rides.

But sluggish ridership growth isn’t the only factor that could be contributing to the TTC’s bare coffers. The staff report also raised concerns about the abuse of fare concessions for post-secondary students and children.

The report noted that there has been an 11 per cent increase in the purchase of post-secondary Metropasses, which cost $112. But sales of TTC post-secondary photo ID, which is required to use the passes, have actually declined. The figures “strongly suggest that there may be an increase in the fraudulent use of the post-secondary Metropass, which must be addressed,” staff wrote.

Staff also suspect that young riders have been taking advantage of a new policy introduced in March 2015 and championed by Mayor John Tory that allows kids 12 and younger to ride for free. According to the report, front-line operators have observed a significant number of students boarding without paying a fare at stops located close to high schools.

“There’s a lot of 10-year-olds with moustaches and beards who are riding the system (for free),” quipped Ross.

To combat the problem, staff recommend a number of “fare control” measures that include requiring children between 10 and 12 years old to get a TTC-issued photo ID on their Presto card in order to ride for free. Riders between 13 and 19 years old would also have to get a TTC photo ID to prove eligibility for a lower youth fare.

Even children between six and nine years old would be required to have their own Presto cards that would let them access the system without paying.

That’s because the TTC intends to replace all Metropasses, tokens, and tickets with the Presto card by the end of 2017, and subway station fare gates won’t open without the swipe of a Presto card.

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Ross explained that the TTC reasoned that children five and younger are small enough go through the fare gates with an adult.

Currently, riders between 10 and 12 are issued a TTC proof-of-age card that doesn’t require a photo, and passengers between 16 and 19 must show a school photo card or government identification in order to access student fare.

Seniors 65 and older would still be able to show government ID to prove eligibility for a lower fare.

The TTC intends to bring a ridership growth strategy to the commission board by early 2017.

Five possible reasons for TTC ridership slump

With TTC ridership slumping, the agency is looking for answers. A report released Wednesday examined likely contributing factors to the problem, which the commission says is part of an industry-wide decline in the popularity of public transit.

Employment

While the number of Torontonians who are employed has been stable for several years, the nature of work is changing. More than half of new jobs created since 2008 are temporary work, and almost half are part time. The $141.50 cost of a Metropass may be worth it for someone who works a stable five-day week, but not for the growing number of people who are precariously employed.

Metropass slump

Adult Metropasses make up 47 per cent of TTC journeys. Their sales declined 3.6 per cent in the year after March 2015, when the commission raised the price from $133.75 to $141.50. The decreased popularity of the passes, which likely has something to do with employment patterns, could account for up to 3 million fewer rides in 2016.

Subway closures

The TTC shut down the subway 35 times in 2015 to perform maintenance, and expects to have roughly the same number of closures this year. That’s more than double the 14 closures in 2012. The report noted that while the shutdowns are “carefully planned in order to minimize their impact” on customers, an “unavoidable consequence” is that some people decide not to ride the Rocket.

Fare evasion

In anticipation of the arrival of its new streetcar fleet, the TTC introduced all-door boarding and a proof-of-payment system on all its streetcars in January. While some people have speculated that scofflaws have been abusing the system to ride for free, the report determined that since the TTC stepped up enforcement, evasion is estimated at only 2.7 per cent per month and concluded that the new system hasn’t resulted in a significant increase in riders skipping out on fares.

Customer satisfaction

Another popular theory is that fewer people are riding the TTC simply because service is terrible. But the report didn’t bear that out. In fact, it found that “perceptions of TTC service (are) at an all-time high over the last 12 months.” In the first quarter of this year, the agency scored a 79 per cent on its customer satisfaction survey.

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