View this email in your browser POOLHOUSE and Cygnal Release Virginia Statewide Poll FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 6th, 2018

Contact: Will Ritter

Will@Poolhouse.co



With 61 days until the first general election of the Trump Presidency, and campaigns shifting into high gear, we wanted to take a closer look at voter sentiment in Virginia.



POOLHOUSE & Cygnal combined forces, pairing Virginia political know-how with top-shelf polling, to survey likely Virginia midterm voters. We interviewed 1,199 likely voters in Virginia and had a margin of error of ±2.83%. For this initial release, we spotlight three questions: Trump’s popularity, the top-of-the-ticket Senate race, and the generic ballot. More questions results will be released over the coming days and weeks.



Neither POOLHOUSE nor Cygnal is associated with the Trump, Stewart or Kaine campaigns. Key Findings The race between Senator Tim Kaine and Corey Stewart is a 5-point race , roughly 50% to 45%. Even with worst-case, low-Republican turnout scenario modeling, the gap widens to 9 points, 51% to 42%. This is better than where Ed Gillespie was polling against Mark Warner in 2014. Kaine’s standing in the POOLHOUSE + Cygnal poll mirrors other public polling results.

, roughly 50% to 45%. The generic ballot is knotted up in Virginia, 47% Republican to 48% Democrat

President Donald Trump’s fav/unfav is 46/51, 3 points sunnier than the most recent comparable nationwide poll. Bullet-Point Analysis Voter enthusiasm is high. More than 85% of respondents said they will definitely vote in November.

Similarly, voters are evenly divided (47% GOP / 47% Dem) on the generic ballot in a normal midterm turnout.

President Trump’s image is still underwater.

Only 4% of respondents were undecided – much lower than other publicly released polls to date. This likely benefits Stewart, who may have gained support from “not Kaine” respondents.

This survey shows support of Kaine reaching levels similar to other polling in VA, but with higher support of Stewart and lower undecided voters. A key takeaway is that there seems to be a block of voters that will not break for Kaine. If these voters had to choose today, they would break for Stewart.

Kaine’s sizeable campaign war chest puts Stewart at a disadvantage as the campaign goes on. ($6 million vs $142,000 as of most recent FEC report) However, Kaine is a well-known former governor and vice presidential nominee in a state that went for Hillary Clinton by 5 points. Kaine has been advertising on TV for 3 weeks before this poll was conducted with no competitive advertising from Stewart, and the result is a very tight race. Methodology Statement



This probabilistic registration-based phone survey was conducted from August 22 – 24, 2018 with 1,119 responses from likely November 2018 general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±2.83%. The margin of error for subgroups may be greater due to limited sample size. Interviewers were conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) to landline phones, allowing any registered voter within the household to complete the survey. All data was collected, processed, and weighted by Cygnal and its affiliate data collection partners.



The partisan makeup of the sample is based on previous midterm election participation and confirmed by voter response on the survey. Respondents were asked “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, or Independent?” The collected sample consists of:

Republican 30% Independent 38% Democrat 31%

An alternate “low-Republican” turnout model was created by weighting the partisan composition of the sample to mirror other publicly released surveys. The partisan makeup of this model consists of:

Republican 24% Independent 40% Democrat 29%

The landline sample was stratified based on past participation and current voter registration within the state of Virginia. Cygnal used statistical weighting procedures to correct sample deviations from known voter characteristics, including: age, gender, ethnicity, and DMA.

### Contact Us Contact: Will Ritter

Co-founder of POOLHOUSE

Will@Poolhouse.co

804.257.7136

poolhouse.co

info@poolhouse.co

804.257.7136

23 W Broad Street

Suite 404

Richmond, VA 23220 1372 Peachtree St. NE

Atlanta, GA 30309

