The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS) are advancing towards Baghdad, the capital city after capturing large swathes of territory and towns, all within a few days. What took everyone by surprise was the ease with which they had captured Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq. From Mosul, they rapidly swept through Tikrit, the place where former President Saddam Hussein was born and are now only 60 kms from Baghdad.

The rapid advances of the ISIS armed groups start from June 10, when they captured Mosul. From Mosul, they have struck out on wide arc, taking over a large part of northern Iraq (except the Kurdish areas) and a number of provinces and towns. While large parts of these areas are Sunni, they are now also controlling areas with mixed Sunni and Shia populations. Towns such as Karbala, Samarra that are important religious places for Shias are also threatened by the ISIS. ISIS has captured military bases, jails and armament depots, greatly boosting their firepower and adding to their numbers from jailed militants who have been released. The Kurdish groups, already entrenched in the northern part of Iraq that adjoins Turkey, have taken over the oil rich town of Kirkuk, with its Peshamega fighters holding it against the ISIS and with tacit consent of the Baghdad government.

ISIS, formerly known as Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, is dominated by religious fundamentalists and a known affiliate of Al Qaeda. It had held parts of Iraq earlier but did not appear to be a major force in the last few years. What has given it a new lease of life, including men and money, was its entry into the civil war in Syria. It received funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf monarchies, recruited foreign (non-Syrian) jihadis and arms from the NATO, in particular the US and Turkey. Without the US and Turkey igniting a full blown civil war in Syria, backed by Gulf monarchies, ISIS would not have got its new lease of life. They took over parts of Syria first, spread into the Anbar region in Iraq adjoining Syria, and from there began their lightning strike across the north and now towards Baghdad.

Image Courtesy: en.wikipedia.org

The rapid ISIS advance shows the inherent weakness of the Iraqi army, as well as the alienation of the Maliki government from the people. The Maliki government has been completely sectarian, giving a fillip to the Sunni extremists, and also completely corrupt. To add to the US woes, it is also close to Iran. Not surprisingly, the US now does not want to militarily support Iraq, while Iran is considering support.

Many of the security forces in Northern Iraq surrendered to the ISIS armed groups without even putting up a resistance. In Mosul, a force of over 50,000 surrendered the town to probably 1,500 ISIS men, virtually without firing a shot. The government security forces thew down their gun, removed their uniform and just ran away. This pattern was repeated in a number of other towns, and only now, as the ISIS near Baghdad are there reports of fighting. With the capture of Mosul, ISIS has not only gained credibility but also gained more than $400 million cached in the banks there, which will now be used to finance their armed rebellion.

Image Courtesy: en.wikipedia.org

The government of Iraq was completely caught off-guard by these developments. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, set up a special crisis and also appealed to the Parliament to declare a state of emergency to deal with the situation. He warned the fleeing officers and other personnel of Iraqi Security Forces of dire consequence if they are found abandoning their posts. In spite of these threats, many officers and soldiers are refusing to confront the attacking militants and put up a resistance. Some 90,000 security forces have already deserted. The only exception was that the security forces were only able to hold the Baiji refinery and Samarra in Salahaddin as the latter includes the Shia Askari shrine.

Apart from the ISIS, there are other forces who are attacking the Baghdad government. It includes the Naqshbandi's, a sufi group, allied with Baathist groups. It is believed that al Douri, a former Vice President under Saddam Hussein, is leading former Baathist soldiers in these attacks.

A lot of planning and preparation went behind the attack. According to Abu Karam, a senior Baathist leader who is involved in the armed attack along with the ISIS, and also a former high-ranking army officer, said that “planning for the offensive had begun two years ago. According to him, “The decisive battle will be in northern Baghdad. These groups will not stop in Tikrit and will keep moving toward Baghdad”.

The rapid advance of the ISIS, which was facing setbacks in Syria, raised alarms amongst the other countries in the region too. Syria, which is fighting the ISIS in its territory is naturally extremely concerned with these developments. So is Iran. Both these countries might extend their support to the Iraqi government, as that will also address their strategic interests in the region.

Image Courtesy: un.org

One of the goals of the American foreign policy is to have West Asia polarized on sectarian lines; the Shia-Sunni fault lines have been encouraged, earlier under the colonial powers, now under the US. With Iraq now splitting on sectarian lines and descending into a sectarian civil war, the danger in the region of permanent wars has only increased. For the Saudi and Gulf monarchies, and Turkey, these sectarian fires may come back to haunt them as well.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Newsclick