Paul Cheng closes gap on Matt Brown in mayor's race

13 point lead now 8 points

TORONTO OCTOBER 7th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 782 voters in London, Ontario, just more than one third will vote for Matt Brown for mayor (35%) compared to more than a quarter who will vote Paul Cheng (27%). This stands in contrast to last month, when Brown's lead was wider (September 4, Brown - 32%, Cheng - 19%). No other candidate is preferred by one tenth (Joe Swan and Roger Caranci - 6% each, other candidates - 8%). One fifth are now undecided in their choice (18%), and this is down from a quarter last month (26%).

Paul Cheng most popular second choice

Paul Cheng has the highest score as second choice for mayor (20%), followed by Matt Brown (14%), Roger Caranci (10%) and Joe Swan (8%). Among Matt Brown's supporters, Cheng is clearly the preferred second choice (34%), while among Cheng supporters, Matt Brown is the leading second choice (27%). More importantly, Joe Swan's supporters pick both Matt Brown (29%) and Paul Cheng second (25%). Among Caranci's supporters, the same applies (Brown - 29%, Cheng - 34%).

Joe Swan with highest negatives

Almost one half of London's voters will never vote for Joe Swan (45%), and this is not matched by any other candidate (Caranci - 15%, Brown - 12%, Cheng - 7%). Brown's supporters are most likely to say they would never vote for Joe Swan (63%), as are Cheng's supporters (48%). Swan voters will never vote Caranci (31%), and Caranci voters return the favour (never vote for Swan - 54%) as well as Matt Brown (36%).

Brown expected to win

Regardless of voters' preferences, almost half expect Matt Brown to be mayor on October 28 (45%), while just less than a quarter place their bets on Paul Cheng (22%). Very few have any expectation that Joe Swan (8%) or Roger Caranci will prevail (6%).

Swan best known, least liked

Awareness of Joe Swan is almost universal (94%) but fewer than one quarter approve of him (23%).Matt Brown and Paul Cheng are both known to the vast majority of voters (88% each), and have similarly high approvals, characteristic of two thirds (67% and 65%, respectively). Roger Caranci is known to as many (82%) but is not well liked (32% approval). Paul Cheng has improved his awareness the most among these candidates since last month (from 59% to 88%).

"While Matt Brown has been treading water in the lead for the last month, Paul Cheng has been consolidating his voter base and, powered by his small ‘c' conservative message of ethics, prudence and growth, moving this race closer to a tie. The growth in his awareness has been notable," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.