The "lessons from Longman" were that the Coalition television and radio advertising remained effective and that careful vetting could have avoided a scandal over Liberal National Party candidate Trevor Ruthenberg that cost votes. The survey also revealed that just 4 per cent of voters remembered the Coalition message from being "doorknocked" at their homes, dangerously below the 15 per cent achieved by Labor and union volunteers. The conclusion was that the Coalition needed to boost its contact with individual voters, particularly at a time when about 15 per cent of the electorate were supporting Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. The polling was presented to Malcolm Turnbull's full ministry in the wake of the Longmann byelection. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen The Longman result had been a vital factor in the growth of party room support for Mr Dutton, with his allies citing the byelection loss as a reason for MPs to turn to an alternative leader who could "connect" with voters.

"You can't win an election without your base. It's called a base for a reason and you build on it with other parts of the community, but you need to listen to your traditional supporters," ACT senator Zed Seselja said between the Tuesday and Friday leadership ballots. "What happened in the Longman byelection is one example." The Liberal report did not name the "policy barnacles" that should be removed but found an extraordinary 70 per cent of voters in Longman recalled the Labor message that the Turnbull government was giving tax breaks to the banks. Even so, the report showed the government was always likely to lose Longman and that the result was not a trigger for a dramatic change. "It was a very factual presentation, explaining that the result was predictable from day one," said one Liberal who saw the analysis.

The presentation, obtained by Fairfax Media, sheds new light on the briefings at the top of the government when parliament resumed on August 13 for a sitting period that became the final fortnight for the Turnbull government. The findings were outlined to the full ministry at a meeting on the Monday night, ahead of the Tuesday party room meeting where former prime minister Tony Abbott and others declared they were willing to cross the floor on energy policy. As Mr Turnbull sought to quell a revolt on energy, supporters of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton sounded out colleagues ahead of a spill. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video Fairfax Media was told that one of Mr Dutton’s allies asked a fellow Liberal MP a key question – "are you with us?" – on the Friday night, in preparation for a spill in the second week of the fortnight.

The briefing to the ministry now divides opinion among those involved in the leadership spill, with the Longman result triggering anxiety among Queensland MPs who threw their support behind Mr Dutton. The Liberal Party polling could have eased concerns over a backlash across Queensland but failed to assuage Mr Dutton and the ministers who backed him in the first leadership ballot the following week – Greg Hunt, Steve Ciobo, Michael Keenan, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, Alan Tudge and Angus Taylor. The report said the Liberals had overseen a "well run campaign" in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon, with a "solid ground game" even though the party was outspent by Labor on advertising. In a warning on the government policy to cut tax rates for big companies including the major banks, the research said Labor had done an effective job at warning against cuts to hospitals in a "banks versus healthcare" debate. The report said Liberal candidate Georgina Downer had campaigned well in the Mayo byelection to maintain the party’s primary vote.

The findings in Longman were based on a benchmark poll conducted at the end of May and a spot poll conducted in July, showing results in line with the final tally from the July 28 byelection. Loading The headline result was that the LNP had a primary vote of 30 per cent in the first survey, 32 per cent in the second one and 30 per cent in the byelection. The report also showed the One Nation primary vote was 15 per cent in the first survey, 15 per cent in the second and about 16 per cent in the byelection. One source said this showed the final result was in line with expectations.