Cablegate: (C) Mr. Nice Guy - New Zealand's New Opposition

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000198

SIPDIS

NOFORN

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2027

TAGS: PGOV PINR NZ

SUBJECT: (C) MR. NICE GUY - NEW ZEALAND'S NEW OPPOSITION

LEADER

Classified By: Consul General John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d

).

(U) This message was drafted by ConGen Auckland and approved

by Embassy Wellington.

1. (C) Summary. New Zealand opposition leader John Key's

persona in private meetings with USG officials has differed

little from the face he has presented to the New Zealand

public since taking charge of the National Party last

November. Key comes across as modest and moderate,

determined not to alienate the broad New Zealand political

middle by promoting policies significantly different from

those of the ruling Labour government. Likewise, Key's

public and private statements to date suggest any foreign

policy changes under a Key-led government would be changes of

tone rather than substance. Key's determination not to

offend begs the question of how he will persuade voters that

there is any reason to shift their support away from Labour.

End summary.

2. (C) In recent meetings with USG officials, and in public

statements, New Zealand's National Party chief and opposition

leader John Key made clear that his goal, at least for the

time being, is to give the party a more congenial public face

rather draw dramatic distinctions between National and the

ruling Labour Party. Key met with visiting DAS Glyn Davies

on January 23, after the latter's visit to New Zealand to

mark the fiftieth anniversary of U.S.-NZ cooperation in the

Antarctic and, before becoming opposition leader, with ConGen

Auckland PO.

3. (C) During these conversations, Key declined to describe

a distinctive National Party foreign policy. Asked how New

Zealand foreign policy would differ under a National

government, Key said the change would be more in tone than in

substance. Indeed, one of Key's first public statements

after becoming opposition leader affirmed National's support

for the country's anti-nuclear stance. Key and his advisors

recognize that foreign policy is a weak spot. To strengthen

Key's foreign affairs credentials, the party announced that

it will form a think tank of former senior National

politicians, including former PM Bolger, to advise Key.

4. (C) While we may not see much new foreign policy

substance, we can expect a far more friendly tone from a

National government. Key described Prime Minister Clark as

"fundamentally anti-American," citing then-Duty Minister

Anderton's remarks highly critical of the President's Iraq

policy speech. While Clark disavowed Anderton's comments,

Key is convinced that Anderton was only echoing the sort of

remarks Anderton has heard the Prime Minister make in

private.

5. (C) The conventional wisdom holds that Key's predecessor,

Don Brash, was doomed at least in part because he had been

labeled "conservative" or, even more fatally,

"neoconservative." Key takes a different tack. He told

Davies that National would not differentiate itself from

Labour with a conservative economic program because a

"socialist streak" runs through all New Zealanders - "not

like Sweden, but it's there." Key described the New Zealand

polity as a bell curve, with the bulk of voters occupying the

center. A move to the right, Key said, would lose far more

voters than it would gain. Key is also reluctant to show his

hand because he fears Labour will adopt any popular ideas he

puts forward regarding, for example, tax cuts. Given that

the next election is some time away, the ruling Labour Party

would have plenty of time to make Key's good ideas its own.

6. (C) Hewing to the center is not simply an electoral

strategy - the center is where Key feels most comfortable.

When he was National's finance spokesman, Key spoke privately

in very positive terms about his counterpart, Finance

Minister Cullen, describing him as an intelligent and skilled

policymaker. Asked what National would do to improve the

business climate in New Zealand, Key had little to say. He

declined the opportunity to bash Labour or describe how he

would do things differently. He suggested that New Zealand's

business environment is strong and identified "brain drain"

to Australia as the only significant problem. In remarks to

the press shortly after becoming National leader, Key backed

away from the previous National position that New Zealand's

labor laws undermined labor market flexibility.

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7. (C) Key's private remarks to the Auckland CG reinforced

the impression that he does not see a big role for Wellington

in improving New Zealand's economy and is not seeking big new

ideas for promoting growth and higher incomes. Key expressed

support in a pro forma way for tax cuts, but otherwise

suggested only that New Zealand concentrate on adding value

to its core strengths - agriculture, tourism, and

aquaculture. He avoided the usual platitudes about high tech

and globalization being the keys to New Zealand's future.

8. (C) Comment. Key's move to the center makes sound

political sense. It was probably inevitable given how

effectively Labour exploited his predecessor's alleged

right-wing tendencies in order to frighten New Zealand's

essentially Social Democratic electorate. Key is also a more

natural politician than his predecessor. Key can join a

pickup volleyball game with a group of teenagers without

looking entirely fake, while Don Brash's public events often

were reminiscent of Governor Dukakis's disastrous

tank-driving outing. However, Key's easygoing and

inoffensive approach has already generated accusations that

his National Party is no more than "Labour-lite." What is

impressive about Key is that he has clearly thought through

his strategy and is both aware of and comfortable with its

inherent tradeoffs. He appears to know it will be a

challenge for him to distinguish National from Labour in a

meaningful way without unsettling those voters most

comfortable on the middle ground. End comment.

Keegan

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