Iowa Poll: Bernie Sanders grapples with too-liberal label but stands on rock-solid base

Nick Coltrain | The Des Moines Register

Show Caption Hide Caption Iowa Poll: Here's how the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates fared November's closely-watched poll results indicate who voters might choose for the 2020 Iowa Caucuses. A new candidate leads the pack.

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U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is stuck in a tie for third place among likely Democratic caucusgoers, with most saying he’s too liberal.

A majority also are skeptical that he could unseat President Donald Trump.

But the Vermont senator leads the other top-polling candidates in terms of supporters who are extremely enthusiastic about his bid to win the Democratic nomination (51%).

Sanders is the first choice of 15% of likely Democratic caucusgoers, according to the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll. That puts him in a tie with former Vice President Joe Biden, 1 percentage point behind U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren. He is 10 percentage points behind the front-runner, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana.

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Of the top four candidates in the poll, Sanders is the only one that a majority of likely Democratic caucusgoers (53%) find too liberal.

A majority (53%) are also either not very confident he’d beat Trump or think he’d almost certainly lose, according to the poll. That's a vulnerability when 63% of likely Democratic caucusgoers place a higher priority on beating Trump than on a candidate’s positions on issues.

The Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., sampled 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers between Nov. 8 and 13. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, has pitched overhauls of the way government operates, including backing a “Medicare for All” universal health care plan and proposing a $16.3 trillion “Green New Deal” intended to remake the economy around fighting climate change. He has also pledged, if elected, to end student loan debt and make all public colleges and universities tuition free.

Michele Hume, 47, a poll respondent from Centerville, said she “rode the Bernie wave last time,” when Sanders battled Hillary Clinton to a near tie in the 2016 Iowa caucuses, and figures on riding it out this time, too.

Hume said she's convinced Sanders would "beat Trump in a heartbeat."

“He's been saying the same things year after year after year after year,” Hume said in explaining her support. “All the other candidates are pretty much just falling into place behind him."

Andre Ruby, 28, a poll respondent from Clinton, caucused for Sanders in 2016, but worries he’d alienate too many moderate voters, whom he believes are key to beating Trump. He now backs Biden.

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"Now, you're looking at the approach of someone who has to be able to counter the radical right,” Ruby said. “You cannot counter the radical right with a radical left."

Sanders leads the field with those who describe themselves as very liberal (34%, which is 19 percentage points higher than his overall support of 15%). He also leads with the youngest segment of likely caucusgoers surveyed, those under 35 (27%). He does better with those who have lower incomes versus those with higher incomes, and with those who have no college degree versus those who have a degree.

Sanders' supporters are least likely of frontrunners' supporters to say they could be persuaded to vote for someone else in the Feb. 3, 2020, caucuses. Of likely Democratic caucusgoers who say Sanders is their top choice, 57% say their mind is made up; none of other top candidates cracks 30% in that metric.

“There's a stickiness in his support,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. He "has the most fired up supporters."

About this poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Nov. 8-13, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 500 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses and 502 registered Republicans who are not planning to participate in the Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,012 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list. For the registered Republican sample, responses for the 533 registered Republican contacts were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active registered Republicans in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the sample of 500 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, as does the sample of 502 registered Republicans. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom is prohibited.

Nick Coltrain is a politics and data reporter for the Register. Reach him at ncoltrain@registermedia.com or at 515-284-8361. Your subscription makes work like this possible. Subscribe today at DesMoinesRegister.com/Deal.