It appears Labor has been rewarded for releasing policy rather than simply attacking the Government. But while the polling gap has closed, the Coalition remains in pole position, writes Peter Lewis.

This was meant to be the election year that rubber-stamped the Turnbull takeover of the Coalition, ending an era of destabilisation on both sides of politics that had the body politic taking on a distinctively Italian feel.

After close to a decade of revolving door leaderships, minority governments and leadership coups, Malcolm Turnbull's personal popularity was going to set up a more progressively orientated Coalition for a long period in power.

But with kick-off for the 2016 federal election fast approaching, Essential is the second poll in as many weeks to have the major parties split 50-50, setting the scene for a tight campaign.

Q. If a federal election was held today, to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don't know, which party are you currently leaning to?

Total Last week (23/2/16) Two weeks ago (16/2/16) Last election (7/9/13) Liberal 40% 41% 40% National 3% 3% 3% Total Liberal/National 43% 44% 43% 45.6% Labor 38% 35% 33% 33.4% Greens 10% 10% 11% 8.6% Palmer United Party 1% 1% 1% 5.5% Other/Independent 8% 10% 11% 6.9% Two party preferred Liberal National 50% 52% 52% 53.5% Labor 50% 48% 48% 46.5%

The big movement in the past few weeks has been a five-point jump in Labor's primary vote, a reward perhaps for the unique idea of releasing policy rather than simply attacking the Government.

While the Coalition vote remains relatively stable, the increasingly obvious splits between the progressives and conservatives within the party room has its primary vote nearly three points down from the last federal election.

But before we get too carried away with our metaphorical toss of a coin, a few things to mitigate the sense that this will be a line ball election.

First, the 2PP result is based on preference flow from the 2013 election, where the Abbott government polled high but attracted very low Green preferences. Turnbull, the more liberal Liberal, may be expected to do better on this front. Mitigating this is the virtual destruction of the Palmer United Party, a conservative offshoot that harvested votes from disaffected Coalition voters.

Secondly, a national vote does not actually decide elections. Rather, Labor needs to win something like 17 seats from the Coalition, and those on the pendulum will be vigorously defended with the advantages of incumbency.

Thirdly, the weight of history shows there hasn't been a one-term government since the 1920s when the Scullin Labor government got mugged by the Great Depression.

Finally, all polls run on a margin of error of 3 per cent, so we might just be chancing our way into a contest.

For all these reasons, while the polls are 50:50, I think it is still a greater than even money bet that the Coalition will be returned.

Those on the Government benches could take further succour from one of Essential's regular benchmarks: the party most trusted to handle particular issues.

Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

Liberal Labor Don't know Difference Liberal - Labor Security and the war on terrorism 40% 20% 40% +20 Management of the economy 41% 22% 36% +19 Controlling interest rates 37% 21% 42% +16 Political leadership 37% 21% 42% +16 Managing population growth 33% 21% 45% +12 Treatment of asylum seekers 31% 26% 42% +5 Ensuring a fair taxation system 33% 29% 38% +4 Ensuring a quality water supply 28% 25% 47% +3 Housing affordability 28% 32% 40% -4 Ensuring the quality of Australia's health system 29% 33% 37% -4 Ensuring a quality education for all children 30% 35% 35% -5 Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 29% 35% 36% -6 Addressing climate change 25% 33% 42% -8 Protecting the environment 24% 33% 44% -9 A fair industrial relations system 28% 38% 33% -10

The Coalition has five policy areas where it has a double-digit advantage including economic management and national security. In contrast, only in industrial relations does Labor have significantly greater trust.

Note also the high number of respondents who don't have a view on which party is better at managing these issues - more than a third in all categories and nudging 50 per cent on some.

With the benefits of incumbency, the Coalition remains well-placed to keep these issues of natural advantage at the centre of the public debate, meaning despite the recent skittish polling numbers, they remain in pole position.

Peter Lewis is a director of Essential Media Communications (EMC), a public affairs and research company specialising in campaigning for progressive social and political organisations. He tweets at @PeterLewisEMC.