by Tim Carter

The fact that the Tories came away victors from the general election in December shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone, the majority was bigger than most expected, my prediction was 37-45 but maybe that was because I have an in-built Labour bias and at times tend to see my glass half full even when it is almost empty!

But politics is always about numbers and with 365 Tory MPs sitting across from 202 Labour MPs the numbers look daunting, leading most sane commentators to decide that the next Labour government is at least two general elections away. But they might be, and probably are, wrong – here’s why.

Back in 2005 the Conservatives had just suffered third general election defeat and their 198 (up from 166) MPs sat looking across at 355 Labour MPs. The talk was that for the Tories the game was over and opposition was now their natural role, they were now the ‘nasty party’ with the Lib Dems on 62 the talk was of ‘two party politics’ coming to an end. The Tories were, we were told, a busted flush.

Howard resigned as leader and a leadership contest was triggered, David Davis was the continuity Howard candidate and in the first round of the contest he was leading Cameron. Following Ken Clarke’s elimination and after the departure of Liam Fox in the next round, the members got to choose between Cameron and Davis – the clear choice offered was change or more of the same and the membership chose change.

Cameron set out on a on a path of reform and detoxification – sound familiar, well it should do because this is where Labour is after three election defeats and the decision members and eventually MPs have to make, is the same.

Cameron dragged the Tories from 198 up to 306 seats with Labour dropping back to 258 – the Lib Dems (down five) decided to deliver a Tory-led government.

During the 2010 campaign most Labour insiders had decided that a hung parliament was the best achievable result and another political fact came true – play to draw or lose and you won’t win.

People will dismiss all of this by shouting “financial crash” or “bigotgate” but the truth is Labour didn’t campaign to win and accepted defeat before one vote had been cast.

So back to 2020 the here and now: Labour are about to rid ourselves of a toxic leader who the public didn’t and would never have warmed to, so step one is choosing the right leader, I’m not going to suggest who that should be but if the membership make the wrong decision – throw this post in the bin along with any chance of future success.

Once the new leader is installed, it is about trust and convincing the electorate we have listened and learned. A full acceptance without argument of the EHRC recommendations, a comprehensive action plan along with expulsion of anti-Semites is the next step, not just zero tolerance but zero tolerance towards those who argue against it!

A leader needs to have the best shadow cabinet possible along with the best advisers so a complete overhaul of staffing both structures and personnel is next and it has to be done without favour or prejudice: “keep the best – chuck the rest” should be the rule…

After that we need to act within two years to make sure that as many seats as possible have candidates selected, in place as insurgents but acting like incumbents, if a seat flipped in 2019 it can flip back in 2024 and if a seat was Labour in 2005 it can be Labour again – go look at some of the majorities – from wafer thin to 5000 the road to victory is there if you want to look for it

What about Scotland you say? I say go and talk to Ian Murray (Edinburgh South) a majority of 316 in 2010 to a majority of 11095 in 2019 – fight to win and you win, build trust across communities, listen and always be on their side – winning elections isn’t always easy but simple things make it easier.

With Brexit decided Johnson has no shield and from here on in everything is down to him and we should be brutal, no hiding place, no escape route – hold him and his MPs to account for every decision – it is a long road but it is a road we must take.

Ignore people who talk about the ‘red wall’ just as you should ignore the fools and knaves who scream #UnseatJohnson, from Leigh to Swindon, Redcar to Gedling and beyond, James Frith to Mel Onn, if we decide we can win, we stand a chance – if we decide we can’t win, we won’t.

But of course, in the leadership election, the membership might decide that slogans and giving the members a vote on whether we should go to war, is more important than winning elections and making Britain Better. If common sense does prevail though, just remember 198 to 306; winning isn’t impossible unless you decide not to try.

Tim Carter is a freelance communications specialist and can be found in Westminster bars and cafes or on Twittter @forwardnotback

Tags: 2005 general election, David Cameron, Labour, Labour leadership election 2020, moderniser, Tim Carter