Sitting in 11th place and six points back of the playoff spots, the Charlotte Independence have an incredibly difficult task ahead of them in the last 11 games of 2018.

Before you start yelling at me, I know: 11 games is a lot of time to make up a six-point gap, especially because most of the games are against teams ahead of them in the standings. But considering those teams could be ahead of them for a reason, that’s also the team’s biggest problem.

There are a myriad of reasons that the task ahead is difficult, but simply put, Charlotte has not performed well enough so far in 2018 to give fans much hope that they will turn it around down the stretch.

Of the remaining 11, the Jacks only play three games against teams that are currently below them in the table. Two of those games are away from home, and they have been less than stellar on the road in 2018. More on that later.

The rest of the eight games are against teams above them in the table right now. Here’s a look at that table.

Maybe we just aren’t very good?

This thought has been bouncing around my head all summer as I’ve watched the Independence struggle. There are three clear tiers in the East that have emerged in the 23ish games this season, and I’m not sure anyone would put them in either of the first two tiers below:

Top 4 (FCC, PIT, CHS and LOU)

(FCC, PIT, CHS and LOU) Bottom 3 (TFC II, ATL II and Richmond)

(TFC II, ATL II and Richmond) Bloodbath (everyone else)

By the Numbers

Let’s look at the Jacks’ results against each tier, starting with the Top 4.

Charlotte has played five games against these teams and has a record of 1–1–3. That’s good for 0.8 points per game, and all of the points were earned in the two home games. It’s a small sample size, but after this Saturday’s match against the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, there will be another result to add to the sample. Win that, and maybe it’s a different conversation.

Charlotte’s four remaining games against the Top 4 teams are split evenly between home and away.

Now, let’s look at the Bottom 3. Charlotte’s record against these teams is 3–3–0 for a total of 2 ppg, not bad at all. The Jacks did benefit from playing TFC II at home a second time instead of traveling to Toronto due to issues with the playing surface at the time. They have one more game in this tier, at home against a Richmond side that has really been struggling since long-time coach Leigh Cowlishaw stepped down after their 1–1 draw with the Jacks in June.

Finally, here are the results from the Bloodbath.

The record here in the middle of the table is just 3–3–6, or 1 ppg. This is the biggest speedbump in Charlotte’s quest to make the playoffs for a third consecutive season.

This sample size is much larger, so let’s break the numbers down a little further. The Independence have earned 1.26 ppg at home in seven games in the Bloodbath tier, and have earned just 0.6 ppg away from home in 5 games in this tier.

There are six games remaining against these teams, 3 home and 3 away.

The sun may be setting on the Jacks season a little earlier in 2018. (Photo Credit: Alex Warren)

Making Predictions

So what? If we’re honest, the numbers reflect a side that just isn’t good enough to get into the playoffs in a highly competitive Eastern Conference, and if they do, they likely can’t win on the road against one of those Top 4 teams.

There are reasons for this, reasons that Ben Goshorn and I have discussed ad nauseam on Talkin’ Jacks and will continue to discuss for the next few months. But let’s keep it simple here:

The Jacks have been unable to perform at a high level against other sides competing for the last four playoff spots. In my opinion, that will be the primary reason that we miss out on the playoffs in the end.

Of course, I would love to be wrong.

There are 11 games left, and we could go on a tear like we have in seasons past and sneak in to one of those last couple spots.

But I would be surprised, and here’s why: Last season, the last playoff spot was earned by Bethlehem Steel with 1.38 ppg and 44 total points. Right now the 8th place team on ppg is earning 1.42 ppg, or around 48 total points at season’s end. The Independence are at just 1.22 ppg through 23 matches, so they will need to earn around 1.91 ppg over the last 11 games to get to 49 total points, above where the playoff line is currently.

That, combined with the tough schedule ahead makes me pessimistic about our playoff hopes.

All that being said, no matter what, I’ll be in section 101 or watching at home supporting the Jacks until the end with hopes that we can recapture some of the magic that we’ve been unable to replicate so far in 2018.

Come on you Jacks!