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These words from the BIS ought to terrify anyone who thought central banks were unprepared for the last recession in 2007, when U.S. interest rates were “high” at about 5.3%:

Financial markets are euphoric, but progress in strengthening banks’ balance sheets has been uneven and private debt keeps growing. Macroeconomic policy has little room for manoeuvre to deal with any untoward surprises that might be sprung, including a normal recession.

And that crisis looks set to arrive any day now because stocks are at a peak. Bloomberg underlined the point at the weekend:

One thing making people nervous about stocks these days is the fact the U.S. market has gone more than two years without a correction, or a 10 percent drop.

It just doesn’t feel right. Sort of like going two years without changing a car’s oil, or two days without brushing your teeth, or two paragraphs into a column without a good metaphor.

The last major dip for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) was an 11 percent drop from its intraday high on April 2, 2012, through its low on June 4, 2012. This year, the closest it’s come was a 6.1 percent slide from the middle of January to early February and a 4.4 percent decline in April.

On top of that, the M&A market hit new records this year. The Financial Times reports:

Deal frenzy, animal spirits, merger mania – call it what you like, it is back. The value of global mergers and acquisitions hit $1.75tn in the first six months of the year, a 75 per cent rise on the same period last year and the highest since 2007.