After a month long lay-off, we finally got a heavy slate of fights on the horizon. To boot, an extremely stack card with lots of value!

We we’re originally suppose to get Ferguson vs Khabib but I think we’re getting a serviceable replacement in Ferguson vs Gaethje.

Just a reminder, I do a betting article for every UFC event and do full card breakdowns for all of the PPVs.

All picks are made from a betting perspective as well.

If you want to get my bets for FREE, 24 hours before I make them public, click here!

Also, if your looking to bet on the fights this weekend, MyBookie has you covered!

If you guys enjoy the content, be sure to shoot me a follow on my social channels! Twitter & Instagram @SWR_Betting

Alright, let’s get into it!

UFC 249: Ferguson vs Gaethje | Picks, Predictions and Betting Tips

Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey

Ryan Spann

Ryan Spann comes into this fight 17-5 overall and 3-0 in the UFC. His last loss came on the 1st season of the Contender Series against now UFC fighter Karl Roberson. Since then he’s been a 7-fight win streak. Training out of Fortis MMA, Spann secured wins over some solid guys in Emiliano Sordi, Rogerio Nogueira, and Devin Clark.

He’s got a massive reach at 81.5” and possesses lots of power. Spann has struggled stuffing TDs historically but does a good job of sweeping or getting back to the feet. He can also overextend on punches leaving himself open to be countered. His best performance to date was against Nogueira where he was able to get a TD, avoid sweeps/subs and eventually KO him early in the first.

Overall, Spann’s a solid prospect but I’m still not 100% sold on him. If he can keep evolving though under Coach Saud, he could have a bright future.

Sam Alvey

Sam Alvey comes into this fight 33-13 overall and 10-8 in the UFC. He’s currently on a 3-fight losing streak making it the worst skid of his career to date. Alvey’s an interesting character as he’s fought essentially the same way his entire career. Largely until recent years, it’s worked out for him.

He’ll fight behind the black line, looking to counter with the left hook. He’s one of those guys who doesn’t really sway from his game plan and forces opponents to come at him – if they don’t, he will literally stand there for 15 minutes. Traditional logic would be to take him down, but Alvey’s TDD is some of the best in the UFC at 82% over an 18-fight sample size. Alvey’s also been known historically for his chin but he’s been KO’d in 2 of his last 3 losses.

Overall, you know what to expect from Sam Alvey but his fights have always been question marks.

Breakdown

As per usual, I’m picking against Alvey. He’s now 33 years old and fighting up a weight class; I think his best years are behind him. In this matchup, he’s drawing a younger, bigger, faster guy in Ryan Spann. Spann’s also going to enjoy a 6.5” reach advantage which should play useful here.

If Spann can pick his shots and not hang around in the pocket, he should coast to a W here. But I have to throw the caveat in there that if you take a guy like Alvey lightly, he will put your lights out.

No bet

I capped Spann at –300 implying a 75% chance of winning. He currently hovers around –400 which is getting a little ridiculous but I’m definitely not laying anything on Alvey here. You’ll often here the term of “he’ll fight for my money” and you’re not going to get that in Sam Alvey. I was looking to potentially target the U2.5 rounds in this fight but that got steamed to over 60% so this fights a pass for me.

Pick: Spann

Charles Rosa vs Bryce Mitchell

Charles Rosa

Charles Rosa comes into this fight 12-3 overall and 3-3 in the UFC. Rosa trains at American Top Team and is a BJJ black belt under Ricardo Liborio (legit lineage). He’s been relatively inactive throughout his UFC career only fighting 6 times since 2014; however, he’s fought some solid guys. No shame in losses coming to Dennis Siver, Yair Rodriguez and Shane Burgos.

In his most recent outing, he got a nice armbar over a fellow black belt in Manny Bermudez. Rosa’s an interesting fighter. He fights out of a karate stance, will switch stances and comes with a heavy kick attack. This can be effective for him as it’s pretty unorthodox and most opponents want no part of his ground game.

Where he has his success on the feet is largely when he’s the aggressor and not put on his back foot. We saw that in the Bochniak fight as he adjusted between the first and second rounds, ultimately winning the last two. Rosa had some success in the kicking game against Shane Burgos but Burgos took the center that whole fight and out-boxed him. Most recently, he was getting smashed in the guard against Bermudez but secured a slick armbar.

Overall, Rosa presents an interesting challenge for any opponent but will struggle with solid strikers.

Bryce Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell comes into this fight 12-0 overall and 3-0 in the UFC. He came onto the scene via TUF where he went 1-1. From there, he got the call and has made good on three fights.

In his only “loss”, he was out grappled by Brad Katona and eventually submitted. In his debut, he was out grappled again and out struck; thought he lost the fight to Diamond. In his second fight, he was largely out-grappled but was able to get into a few dominant positions that squeaked out the fight for him against Moffett. In his most recent performance, he looked solid securing an early take down and eventually getting a nice twister.

Stylistically, he’s southpaw with a solid straight left and is a brown belt in BJJ. In the standup he doesn’t look very comfortable. He keeps his guard low, is hittable, doesn’t check kicks and will overextend on punches. His defensive wrestling isn’t great but he does have good sweeping ability but can also be swept himself (Katona & Diamond fight multiple times). Mitchell’s cardio is also suspect as he tends to slow in the latter rounds.

Overall, he’s only 25 years old so I’m expecting him to make some improvements but I’m definitely not on the Bryce Mitchell “hype-train”.

Breakdown

We’re opening the card with a very intriguing match up. As per above, I’m largely unimpressed with Mitchell and he’s getting a tough stylistic match up in Rosa.

I know Rosa isn’t the heavy wrestler that Mitchell has faced in the past but on the feet, I think he can give Bryce problems as well as on the ground. Largely how I see this fight playing out is Rosa staying at range, constantly touching Mitchell forcing him to shoot at some point. From there, Mitchell will be playing in the guard of a solid black belt. How long he stays there, I’m not sure but it will get dicey.

Both guys striking defense isn’t great either so I wouldn’t be surprised if Mitchell catches Rosa with something. However, Mitchell’s very hittable as well and with both guys being southpaws, the leg kick will be there all day for Rosa to score. The question is whether or not Rosa will be going forward here.

Ultimately, Rosa’s a tough style match up for anyone and I think he’ll really give Mitchell trouble here.

Bet 1u on Charles Rosa at +155

I capped Charles Rosa as a slight favorite at –122 implying a 55% chance of victory. I’m not capping him higher solely because I don’t know if he will be the aggressor here. If he allows Bryce to go forward the whole fight, it could play out a lot closer than predicted.

Pick: Rosa

Vicente Luque vs Niko Price

Vicente Luque

Vicente Luque comes into this fight 17-7-1 overall and 10-3 in the UFC. Luque was introduced to us back in 2015 via one of the best seasons of TUF (I highly recommend you watch that season). I knew watching that season that there was something special about Luque and have been very high on him ever since.

He lost his debut and has had a few setbacks since then to top welterweights in Leon Edwards and Stephen Thompson. But for the majority of his career, he’s been able to handily beat mid-tier/fringe top 15 guys with relative ease. However, in recent years, Luque has struggled a bit.

He was losing the fight to Bryan Barberena before KOing him in the final seconds of the fight, Mike Perry really tee’d off on him giving him a super close fight and then Thompson beat him pretty handily. So, we’ve seen that some of the subsequent steps up in competition have given Luque troubles. Outside of that though, he’s KOing and choking guys out left and right.

Stylistically, he’s a BJJ black belt whose striking has really come along over the years. He trains out of solid camp at Hard Knocks 365 as well. The only real knock on him is that he’s defensively flawed. Luque exercises little head movement and resorts to “shelling” as his primary line of striking defense. Outside of his high-level skills, he’s largely relied on his toughness to get him through his fights. If he doesn’t fix this defensive issue, I think he’s going to have a real rough time with the division’s elite.

However, his abilities will allow him to beat the caliber of opponents he’s consistently beaten.

Niko Price

Niko Price comes into this fight 14-3 overall and 6-3 in the UFC. In his now 5 years in the UFC, Price has never been to the judges’ scorecards.

He comes into the Octagon with a similar mindset as UFC 249 headliner, Justin Gaethje, in a “kill or be killed” kind of mentality.

His only losses have come to real surging guys in the 170lb division in Vicente Luque, Abdul Razak Alhassan and Geoff Neal. He’s also got solid wins over guys like Randy Brown, Tim Means and James Vick. Price has crafty chokes and heavy hands to boot making him a guy you can never sleep on. However, he’s been defensively flawed as well, enjoys the brawl and has went out on his shield a few times because of it.

Overall, Price is a fun guy to watch but his style will cost him fights.

Breakdown

This fight is a rematch from back in 2017 where Luque was able to finish Price via D’Arce choke towards the end of 2nd round.

Price largely likes to be the pressure fighter but Luque was able to be the aggressor in the first contest. He kept the jab in his face, threw more volume and landed leg kick. The damage accumulated allowing Luque to land the big shot dropping Price and finishing him via choke.

The only way I see this fight playing out differently is if Price just doesn’t give Luque any respect. He’s got to throw caution to the wind, go at him and not be backed. Luque is better in every element of the game so if Price can turn it into a dog fight, that’s where his best chances lie to catch Luque with something.

Important to note, Luque has begun to accumulate lots of damage recently and as touched on earlier, if he doesn’t sure up that part of his game, he’s going to get knocked out at some point.

However, I just don’t see that happening here and the fight to play out relatively the same as the first contest.

No Bet

I capped Luque at –233 implying a 70% chance of victory. I’m not capping him higher solely because his defensive flaws do make me nervous and that he’s ripe to get caught eventually. Luque currently hovers slightly higher than that so I don’t like a play on either fighter here. The FDGTD is also very high at –380 so I’ll be passing on this fight and looking to enjoy the impending violence.

Pick: Luque

Ronaldo Souza vs Uriah Hall

Jacare Souza

Jacare Souza comes into this fight 26-8 overall and 9-5 in the UFC.

The long time Middleweight standout will head back down to his weight class after losing a split decision in his last outing at 205lbs. Souza is now 40 years old and many have said that his best years are behind him. I can’t say I disagree as he’s 2-4 in his last 6 fights. However, even in all 4 of those losses, he had lots of moments in those fights outside of the Whitaker fight.

You could make the argument he beat Kelvin Gastelum (I scored the fight for Gastelum), he hit Hermansson with some big shots but got outboxed/outcardio’d and then he had another close fight with Blachowicz. So, this narrative that he’s completely shot is unfair. In between those fights, he had two solid finishes over Derek Brunson and Chris Weidman.

Stylistically, Jacare is a high level BJJ black belt but his fights have largely played out on the feet in recent years. When on the feet, he fights in spurts. He’ll throw lots of hooks, good digs to the body and strong body kicks. However, he doesn’t throw in combination a ton and when he does, his defense completely goes out the window. Because of this, opponents can begin to build momentum as he starts to slow down and eat shots.

Overall, you can never count out Jacare. I do think his best years are behind him but I still think he can be competitive in the top 15 with the correct matchups.

Uriah Hall

Uriah Hall comes into this fight 15-9 overall and 8-7 in the UFC.

For many years, Hall was predicted to be a future UFC champion but over the last five years, we’ve seen that to be far from the case. However, his most recent losses are nowhere shameful in coming to Robert Whitaker, Derek Brunson, Gegard Mousasi and Paulo Costa.

He’s recently strung together a nice two fight win streak albeit not very impressively. He was losing the fight Bevon Lewis before catching him in the third and had a very close fight with ACJ where he was out grappled but his effective striking won him the fight. If you go back even a little further against Krzysztof Jotko, he was getting tee’d off on in the first round before scoring a nice TKO in the second.

In totality, Hall hasn’t had a complete performance in many years.

Stylistically, he always presents an interesting challenge to opponents though. He’s very explosive and diverse with his kicks and punches to where he can put a guy out at any time. However, he will play on the back foot and look to counter, allowing opponents to get into the clinch and work TDs. When on the ground, his defensive BJJ is pretty solid; however, he’s had his back taken by guys like Mousasi and ACJ but was able to get out of those positions and recover full or half guard.

Hall’s also been very vocal about struggling with the mental side of the sport.

Overall, he’s now 35 and the book on how to beat him is out. However, opponents can’t sleep on him at any time as he can put the lights out in a second.

Breakdown

I thought this was solid match-making from the UFC in this spot. This fight comes down to Jacare being able to effectively close distance, work from the clinch and land TDs.

Now, Jacare has solid hands but can get predictable and sloppy as the fights progress which makes me nervous against a guy like Hall. The path to least resistance for Jacare would be to employ that wrestling heavy attack and try to secure a submission early.

When this fight is on the feet though, Jacare better mind his P’s and Q’s on how he’s closing distance. The longer this fight goes, the more I favor Hall.

However, Jacare clearly possesses the skillset to win this fight. The question is whether he can avoid the big shot or not.

No bet

I capped Jacare at –150 implying a 60% chance of winning. I’m not capping him higher due to some of his defensive flaws and questionable gas tank, coupled by Hall’s finishing ability. I’ll consider a bet on Jacare if he reaches dog money but will more than likely pass here.

Pick: Souza

Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson

Carla Esparza

Carla Esparza comes into this fight 15-6 overall and 6-4 in the UFC.

As the first ever Strawweight Champion, she’s been fighting the divisions best since 2014. Esparza is also one of the only female fighters with a traditional wrestling background which is on display in nearly all of her fights. She’s currently on a 2-fight win streak with wins over Virna Jandiroba and Alexa Grasso.

Carla’s largely fought the same way her entire career; however, I feel her striking has improved significantly over the years. She’s adapted her style very well to fit her wrestling heavy game plans.

Her two most recent losses came via two girls who were able to out grapple her over the course of 3 rounds in Claudia Gadelha and Tatiana Suarez (I thought Carla won the Gadelha fight). Esparza’s a pretty small 115 but doesn’t fight like it.

As touched on earlier, her striking has adapted to complement her wrestling. She does a good job a switch stepping the get into range where she can either feint a TD and go upstairs or shoot the TD. Because she is smaller, she does eat a lot of shots while trying to close the distance but will still land to end exchanges. In the open, she got good blast doubles and can ride the pipe well on single legs. When on top, she does a good job of controlling her opponents.

Overall, Esparza hasn’t been able to put together a solid win streak but I think now in 2020, we’re seeing the best Carla Esparza we’ve ever seen. She’ll struggle with the top of the top but beat a majority of top 15 girls.

Michelle Waterson

Michelle Waterson comes into this fight 17-7 overall and 5-3 in the UFC.

Waterson’s a former Invicta Atomweight Champion and came to the UFC back in 2015.

Most recently she went on a nice 3-fight win streak before drawing former Strawweight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk where she was out struck over the course of 5 rounds.

Waterson is a Karate black belt and BJJ purple belt. Depending on the matchup, she’ll either trying to stay at distance and counter or try to wrestle. She’s had success in both and has struggled in both. She’s also only lost to top girls but has only beaten that fringe top 15.

Overall, Waterson is a serviceable fighter but has struggled in the big fights.

Breakdown

I really like this fight for Esparza.

Both girls have been around now for a while so I think we’ve seen a good sample size of what both are capable of.

Waterson being a former 105er, Esparza isn’t going to be significantly outsized as she has been a majority of her career. Waterson has also historically struggled with pressure. I see Waterson trying to stay on the outside and counter Esparza coming in. I find it hard to believe that Waterson will be able to keep Esparza at bay for 15 minutes.

With that being said, I like both girls to have some success in the striking as they’re both defensively flawed. The difference here will be the wrestling of Esparza. She’ll be able to steal rounds and get some solid top time. Also, Waterson hasn’t faced a wrestler the level of Esparza.

Ultimately, this is Carla’s fight to lose. If she comes in healthy with the correct game plan, she gets the job done.

Bet 1.5u on Esparza at -115

I capped Esparza at –186 implying a 65% chance of winning. I made the bet on Esparza at –115 giving me a solid differential at 11.52%. As touched on earlier, I don’t think it’s a layup, but this is a fight she should win and give me some solid value at near dog odds.

Pick: Esparza

Fabricio Werdum vs Alexey Oleinik

Fabricio Werdum

Fabricio Werdum comes into this fight 23-8-1 and 14-6 in the UFC.

The long-time member of Kings MMA training under Master Rafael Cordeiro, Werdum has been a staple in the UFC Heavyweight division for well over a decade.

He’s now 42 years old coming off of a 2-year layoff due to a USADA suspension. However, the veteran hasn’t looked bad in recent years despite suffering some losses.

Back in 2015, he put on one of the most impressive performances of his career, picking apart Cain Velasquez and eventually securing a submission. Since then, he’s struggled with some of the divisions elite strikers in Stipe Miocic, Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov.

In between those losses, he’s looked impressive gaining wins over Travis Browne, Walt Harris and Marcin Tybura.

Stylistically, he’s the best BJJ guy we’ve ever seen in the heavyweight division holding a 3rd degree black belt. As touched on earlier, he’s also got some solid striking training under Rafael Cordiero.

Overall, Werdum has proved to be a tough, stylistic matchup for many heavyweights.

Alexey Oleinik

Alexey Oleinik comes into this fight 58-13-1 overall and 7-4 in the UFC.

Obviously very experienced, the grizzled vet and submission specialist has been somewhat of an anomaly.

Oleinik is a BJJ black belt under Ricardo Liborio and a Master of Sport in combat sambo. It’s no secret what Oleinik is coming to do when he steps in the cage and that’s to strangle his opponents, hense the nickname “The Boa Constrictor”.

He’s struggled when he’s unable to get his opponents down, proven in his three most recent losses to Curtis Blaydes, Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris. However, when he’s able to get ahold of opponents, he’s very difficult to shake off, proven by his last 5 wins all via submission.

Stylistically, he throws big overhand looping shots to get into range; if they land, they land but it’s ultimately his strategy to close distance. Once he gets a hold of opponents, he’s got good takedowns from the clinch via the bodylock and trips. If he’s not able to get opponents down, he will slow and get tee’d off on.

Overall, Oleinik’s been largely undervalued and has proven many doubters wrong but is very one-dimensional.

Breakdown

I’ll keep this one relatively brief, this is a terrible stylistic matchup for Oleinik.

Oleinik has almost always had a grappling advantage over opponents but this is one of the rare cases where he won’t. Because of his style, he’s going to have to grapple.

Werdum is a “heads and tails” better striker than Oleinik showing much more technical prowess and is a better grappler as well. The only way I see Oleinik winning this fight is landing a big overhand if Werdum gets too comfortable. Other than that, Werdum should cruise.

I actually think Werdum should get a finish here.

Oleinik’s entries are wild and where Werdum’s striking isn’t his core competency, he’s very accurate landing at a 51% clip. I could easily see Werdum catching Oleinik coming in. If that doesn’t happen and Werdum pulls guard on entries, I still like Werdum off of his back as everything in Oleinik’s arsenal isn’t foreign to Werdum.

Assuming we don’t see a completely different Werdum given the layoff and age, he gets Oleinik out in the first or second round.

Bet 2u on Fabricio Werdum ITD at –139

I capped Werdum at –300 implying a 75%% chance of victory. The only reason I’m not capping him higher is the layoff. The line currently sits around there so I don’t like a play on Werdum straight; however, I really like Werdum ITD at –139. Oleinik’s striking defense is very flawed and will gas. I like Werdum to capitalize on this and either put Oleinik out via strikes or submission.

Pick: Werdum

Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis

Donald Cerrone

Donald Cerrone comes into this fight 36-14 overall and 23-11 in the UFC.

Cowboy’s been heralded as one of the most fan-friendly fighters in UFC history. Between being very active, taking fights on short-notice and his willingness to engage in a gritty scrap, Cerrone has cemented himself as a future Hall of Famer.

Cowboy’s currently on a three-fight losing skid to the division’s elite in Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje and Conor McGregor. Prior to, he got a nice 3-fight win streak over fringe top-10 opponents Mike Perry, Alexander Hernadez and Al Iaquinta.

Stylistically, Cerrone brings a well-rounded game with a diverse striking attack complemented by solid wrestling and BJJ when he chooses to use it. Important to note, Cowboy is now 37 years old and has amassed an incredible amount of damage throughout his career. The knock on him is that he’s never been able to win the “big fights”; however, is still no push-over to a majority of the division.

The big looming question posed is that is this the downturn of Cerrone? Only time will tell.

Anthony Pettis

Anthony Pettis comes into this fight 22-10 overall and 9-9 in the UFC.

Similar to Cerrone, Pettis has been in the game for many years now.

He’s only 33 years old still but is well beyond that in fight years.

Since losing the title to Rafael Dos Anjos back in 2015, Pettis has really struggled going 4-8 in his last 12. Again, similar to Cerrone, Pettis is very well rounded as he’s got a BJJ black belt and a black belt in TKD. He’s always taken on the role as fan-friendly fighter but it has largely cost him in recent years. Because of his style, he’s overaggressive on both the feet and the mat allowing opponents to effectively capitalize.

Overall, Pettis is also on the back 9 of his career but is always dangerous if not given the proper respect.

Breakdown

This is a good fight for both considering where they are at in their careers.

I presume this fight to be an absolute war with back and forth striking exchanges and some crazy scrambles if the fight hits the mat. The chin of Cerrone is a big question mark for me here as Pettis can crack but at space, I think Cerrone has the edge.

This fight is at 170 as well so that should favor Cerrone.

Ultimately, I don’t have a great read on this fight as I think both guys will be taking lots of chances here allowing it really go either way.

No Bet

I capped this fight at pick em’ so if you were to bet this fight, I think the value lies with Cerrone at dog odds. The under 2.5 rounds at dog odds may also be something you want to target but I don’t feel great about that one either. Overall, this fight is a massive pass for me as there is lot more value elsewhere on this card.

Pick: Cerrone

Greg Hardy vs Yorgan de Castro

Greg Hardy

Greg Hardy comes into this fight 5-2-1 overall and 2-2-1 in the UFC.

He was made known to MMA fans with his first two fights on the Contender Series securing two quick KOs.

Hardy then made his debut back in 2019 against Allen Crowder where he struggled a bit in the grappling but did have success on the feet before landing an illegal knee, stopping the fight. From there, he got another two quick wins over Dmitry Smolyakov and Juan Adams.

Then in his best performance against Ben Sosoli, the fight was ultimately ruled a no contest due to him using an inhaler.

In his most recent fight, he was just outclassed by a much better fighter in Alexander Volkov. I think people really over-valued his performance there as he didn’t get KO’d but got almost doubled up on in strikes.

Ultimately, I think we’ve seen improvements out of Hardy in recent performances being more patient. This was on display in the Sosoli fight as he picked him apart from the outside for three rounds. Against Volkov, he was too patient and tried to outpoint a better point fighter which lost him a unanimous decision.

Overall, he’s big heavyweight with heavy hands but has had difficulty with effective pressure.

Yorgan de Castro

Yorgan de Castro comes into this fight undefeated at 6-0 and is 1-0 in the UFC.

De Castro came on the scene via the Contender Series where impressed as a +600 underdog against a former D-1 wrestler.

In his debut against Justin Tafa, he was patient looking to counter the over-aggressive fighter. He was able to do that putting Tafa out with a step-back hook early in the first round. He also looked impressive in his regional scene fights.

De Castro isn’t the biggest heavyweight in terms of stature but definitely packs a punch. Also, don’t let the mid-section of Yorgan fool you as he’s a very athletic guy.

Stylistically, he moves very well and can close distance effectively. I also like his ability to mix in the leg kicks which were on display in his fights against Ras Hylton and Alton Meeks. I’ve also seen the guy throw quick, jump knees as well so he’s definitely not a guy to sleep on.

Overall, I think people may make the mistake of looking at his experience level or physique and make a poor judgement call. Personally, I think this guy has some potential and can use his size/speed/athleticism to his advantage in the heavyweight division.

Breakdown

This is a fight that’s been on the books for a while now that I’ve had a lot of intrigue in.

Despite Hardy’s improvements in slowing fights down recently, I think de Castro poses a real threat here.

As noted above, Hardy has a difficult time with effective pressure and de Castro can pose just that. Hardy is the bigger man here with a 6” height and reach advantage but Yorgan’s style can give him trouble. I like the leg kicks from Yorgan to hinder the movement of Hardy early. I also like the high guard from Yorgan to block some of those big shots on entry to eventually counter with hooks and follow with leg kicks.

Ultimately, this is a very good close fight but I like Yorgan to get it done.

Bet 1u on Yorgan de Castro at +165

I capped this fight as a pick em’ at –110 a piece. Hardy currently sits around –200 which I think is ridiculous. I acknowledge his improvement but I think the name value may be influencing this line as well. So, it’s not that I’m discounting Hardy here, it’s more so that the public in undervaluing de Castro. I think he’s going to surprise a lot of people.

Pick: de Castro

Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar

Jeremy Stephens

Jeremy Stephens comes into this fight 28-17 overall and 16-16 in the UFC.

Stephens is one of the longest tenured UFC fighters whose been fighting top competition his entire career. It’s pretty incredible that he’s only 33 years old; granted, in fight years he’s much older.

Stephens has fought largely the same way his whole career but has added more of a kicking arsenal in recent years. I’ve always considered him a technical brawler in which his style has been able to win him fights given certain match ups, but has also been his downfall in numerous others. Stephens has consistently struggled with opponents that aren’t willing to engage in the brawl with him and utilize solid movement. From there, opponents will make him miss a lot and out-strike him from the outside.

However, in his two most recent wins, he drew opponents that gave him the fight he favors in Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett (cashed him at good dog odds against Choi).

Overall, the book is out on how to beat Stephens; it’s more so of how his opponents approach the fight with him to determine the result.

Calvin Kattar

Calvin Kattar comes into this fight 20-4 overall and 4-2 in the UFC.

Kattar’s been a money train for me so far since entering the UFC.

He’s struggled against the division elite but has handled the fringe top 10/15 accordingly. Kattar’s got solid, crisp, serviceable boxing. You’re not going to see anything to flashy from Kattar but his fundamentals are excellent. Personally, I think he’s got one of the better jabs in the game right now. He also digs the body well to set up hooks and crosses.

Where Kattar’s struggled in the past has been with movement and the leg kicks. In both of his losses, roughly 25%-33% of strikes landed on him were to legs with high accuracy. Kattar isn’t a particularly mobile guy in terms of distance traveled but really relies on his footwork in striking range. He’s also been susceptible to the jab.

Overall, Kattar hasn’t had one easy fight in the UFC and he’s not getting one now in Jeremy Stephens.

Breakdown

To continue another great slate of fights on this card, Kattar vs Stephens shouldn’t disappoint.

Pre-tape, I was very high on Kattar and post-tape, I still like him in this fight but a little less.

The main reason I say that is this fight is going to be determined by what game plan Kattar comes in with. If he tries to go strike-for-strike with Stephens, it’s still a winnable fight for him but his chances of winning dramatically decrease. I like Kattar to come with a more efficient game plan here.

I like him to establish his jab early, use his footwork to slip the overhands of Stephens and counter effectively. The leg kicking ability of Stephens and lack of checking of kicks from Kattar has to be mentioned as well. I don’t think you can make the direct comparison of the kicking success against Kattar from Moicano and Magomedsharipov to Stephens though. Why? Both of those guys move exponentially better than Stephens and are much longer featherweights. Will Stephens have success with leg kicks? I’m sure he will but I don’t think it will play as much of a factor in this matchup as it’s had in past Kattar losses.

Overall, I like Kattar to get this done as it’s a very winnable fight for him as long as he comes with the correct game plan and doesn’t go for a “fight of the night” bonus.

No Bet (currently)

I capped Kattar at –250 implying a 71.43% chance of winning. Kattar currently hovers slightly below that. If he gets down to around –200 or better, I will probably make that bet. At current odds, I don’t like either guy. If you’re more leaning Stephens, he currently sits at +525 by decision. There’s definitely some potential value in that bet if that’s the side you’re on.

Pick: Kattar

Francis N’Gannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Francis N’Gannou

Francis N’Gannou comes into this fight 14-3 overall and 9-2 in the UFC.

N’Gannou may be one the scariest individuals we’ve ever seen grace the UFC’s Octagon. He’s finished all 9 of his UFC wins via KO/TKO and has one of the most vicious KO’s in UFC history over Alistair Overeem.

His only setbacks came back in 2018 where he was out boxed by Stipe Miocic over the course of 5 rounds and then just a bad overall fight against Derrick Lewis where both guys didn’t really engage. From there he’s made quick work of Curtis Blaydes, Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos.

Stylistically, I think we’ve seen improvements from Francis over time. He’s really worked on his TDD and his striking seems to be much for fluid and efficient. I think that’s a testiment to his move to Las Vegas and some of the work he’s been doing with Coach Eric Nicksick at Extreme Couture.

Overall, N’Gannou is a fighter where what you see is what you get. I think by the end of 2020, we see N’Gannou as the UFC Heavyweight Champion.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Jairzinho Rozenstruik comes into this fight undefeated at 10-0 overall and 4-0 in the UFC.

The Suriname native has climbed the UFC heavyweight ranks quickly getting 4 wins in just 1 year. He comes from a traditional kickboxing background which is on display in all of his fights.

There isn’t a ton to break down on him as he’s finished all of his fights relatively quickly but there are a few I want to touch on.

Prior to his debut, I looked at his Rizin fight against Andrey Kovalev where despite him winning, he couldn’t stop a TD and had no idea of what to do off of his back. I figured that anyone with any amount of grappling would expose him relatively quickly. However, we haven’t really seen anyone try a wrestling heavy attack against him so that’s still to be seen in the UFC.

Then moving to his Overeem fight, he was clearly losing that fight as Overeem didn’t really commit much but was out striking him before he landed the KO shot with 4 seconds left in the fight. Outside of that, he’s looked impressive but against sub-par heavyweight competition.

I could be completely wrong as heavyweight is very unpredictable, but I don’t see him having a lot of success against the top of the division.

Breakdown

Like many, I really like N’Gannou in this fight.

He’s fought the significantly better competition and is making recognizable improvements. At this point in time, I don’t think Rozenstruik is a top heavyweight. That may change over time but he’s getting a big step up here. I like Francis to use the 5” reach advantage he’ll have here to pop out the jab to set up the big shot and finish Rozenstruik. This is one of those cases where the fight could be over quickly or we could see them stare at each other for 15 minutes. But I like N’Gannou to get it done here.

No Bet

I capped Francis at –250 implying a 71.43% chance of winning. In heavyweight MMA, this is about the max I will cap someone at as the power factor can put anyone out on their best day. But as touched on, I don’t think Jairzinho is at the level of N’Gannou right now. But I’m never stoked to lay over 2-1 on heavyweight MMA so I’m going definitely going to pass.

Pick: N’Gannou

Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz

Henry Cejudo

Henry Cejudo comes into this fight 15-2 overall and 9-2 in the UFC.

He’s currently only the UFC Bantamweight Champion after vacating the Flyweight Title.

Since losing a title bout to Demetrious Johnson and a following fight to Joseph Benavidez back in 2016, Cejudo has been on a tear. He made good his second fight with DJ winning the flyweight belt, defends against TJ Dillashaw and then wins the Bantamweight Title against Marlon Moraes.

This will be his first title defense at bantamweight.

We’ve seen Cejudo evolve before our eyes as he was largely just looked at as a high-level wrestler but now is seen as a great threat on the feet as well. He changed his stance to fight more out of a karate look and will dart in and out of the pocket. However, he still will brawl in the pocket at times. But what we’ve really seen is a more powerful, economical Cejudo securing 3 of his last 5 wins by KO/TKO.

He did face some adversity in the early part of the Moraes fight as Moraes landed a ton of leg kicks on Henry. Henry had problems getting in range but his pressure slowed Moraes and from there he was able to take over.

The move to Fight Ready with Eric Albaracin seems to have been a good one.

Overall, I’m curious to see the evolution of Cejudo continue.

Dominick Cruz

Dominick Cruz comes into this fight 22-2 overall and 5-1 in the UFC.

Arguably the best bantamweight we’ve ever seen, Cruz returns after a 3-year layoff due to injury.

In his most recent bout, he was dethroned as the bantamweight champ at the hands of then surging Cody Garbrandt. Prior, he amassed solid wins over Demetrious Johnson, Takeya Mizugaki, TJ Dillashaw and Uriah Faber. Cruz is best when he can dictate the pace of a fight.

TJ Dillashaw did a nice job of landing the leg kicks that added up over the course of the fight slowing Cruz in the latter rounds; however, Cruz was able to effectively out strike him over the course of 5 to get the decision. He then fought Faber where he put on a masterful performance. Then most recently, he just got out-classed by Garbrandt which is something I never thought I’d say about Cruz. Garbrandt gave him no respect mentally or physically in that fight which played a large factor. Cruz couldn’t get Cody to bite on his feints so he had to engage with Cody prepared to counter. It was truly a historic performance by Garbrandt.

Stylistically, Cruz is known for his footwork, moving in and out of the pocket seamlessly. He also possesses unpredictable movement patterns allowing him to largely avoid strikes from his opponents and land strikes of his own. He can also wrestle if he so chooses (took down Dillashaw and Faber multiple times).

Overall, Cruz is now 35 and has missed the majority of his prime years. The question is whether were going to see the Cruz of old or not?

Breakdown

For starters, I wasn’t a very big advocate of this fight to begin with. I thought there were others currently in mix who were more deserving but none-the-less, the fights here.

Cruz poses a tough matchup for anyone that draws him. The main questions I have coming into this fight is how does Cejudo deal with the movement of Cruz and how does he slow Cruz? Because I can guarantee you that Cruz won’t stand in front of him as Moraes did. If Henry can’t solve that, Cruz can out-point him over the course of 5 rounds.

I really wish the Dillashaw/Cejudo fight could have went longer as it would have given me more insight into this matchup.

Despite Cruz being more of volume guy, he can crack but I still give the power edge to Cejudo. Assuming this fight goes the distance (I think it will), can Henry land the more effective shots to beat the volume of Cruz? Maybe.

Barring Cruz doesn’t get injured mid-fight, I think this fight plays out a lot closer than the odds indicate assuming we’re used to seeing the Cruz of old.

No Bet

I capped Cejudo at –150 here implying a 60% chance of victory. Momentum is real thing and Cejudo is riding a high wave complemented by large strides in his game. But, because of the inactivity of Cruz and his most recent loss (his 1st in a decade), I think people are truly forgetting how great Dominick Cruz is. The value bet here is clearly on Cruz but there are too many question marks for me in this fight to put confident money either way.

Pick: Cruz

Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje

Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson comes into this fight 25-3 overall and 15-1 in the UFC.

Originally scheduled to face Khabib Nurmagomedov for the Lightweight Title for the 5th time, Ferguson now draws a tough matchup in Justin Gaethje.

Till this day, he remains as one of the most unique fighters to ever step in the Octagon. He hasn’t lost a fight in a decade and has virtually no holes in his game.

Since his last loss to Michael Johnson, he’s picked his opponents apart. The closest fight he’s had since was against Rafael Dos Anjos who took 2 rounds from Tony but lost via UD (Tony also landed almost 200 strikes in that fight).

Another honorable mention was the Kevin Lee fight where Tony got outwrestled the first two rounds but was able to secure a submission in the third.

Also, important to note, he was hurt badly in the fights against Lando Vannata and Anthony Pettis (ultimately recovering to secure finishes).

Stylistically, Ferguson can put a pace on guys unlike many others. He throws an incredible amount of volume along with a heavy diversity of strikes from both stances. He’ll keep his hands down throwing from unorthodox angles while also rolling with punches nicely. Ferguson can also keep the same pace for 15 or 25 minutes. Too complement his striking, he’s a BJJ black belt under Eddie Bravo and former collegiate wrestler. Doesn’t get much scarier than to face a guy like Tony Ferguson.

The only real knock on him is that he can be hurt but from a striking defense perspective he sits at 63% which is very good considering his competition.

Overall, he’s fought a lot of good guys but he’s now fighting the top of the top. He’s also now 36 years old so we’ll see if “El Cucuy” can keep it going as he moves into the latter half of his career.

Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje comes into this fight 21-2 overall and 4-2 in the UFC.

The former WSOF champ came over to the UFC back in 2017 and made good on his debut TKOing Michael Johnson. From there he lost two straight fights to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier who were able to outbox him and avoid the big shot. He’s since went on a 3-fight winning streak finishing James Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone in the first round.

After Gaethje took those two losses, we saw a more composed Gaethje. For the majority of his career, he’s thrived in the “fire fight” but he clearly acknowledged some of those issues and has looked a lot better going forward. By composed I mean his punch selection has been much better. He’s not just blindly eating shots to get into range but uses leg kick from range to set up his combinations.

As a former collegiate wrestler, nobody’s had success taking him down and Gaethje uses his wrestling background for defensive purposes exclusively.

He trains at a very good camp at Elevation Fight Team under the guidance of one of the best in Trevor Whitman as well. I think this is large testament to some of the tweaks in his game recently.

Overall, Gaethje possesses arguably the heaviest hands in the division and if he can avoid getting tee’d off on, he’s capable of beating anyone in the division.

Breakdown

I was very disappointed as were most, that we didn’t get Khabib vs Ferguson but this fight serves to be a very legitimate replacement.

As touched on earlier, Ferguson has very few holes in his game which is a credence to all of his success. However, in recent years, he’s been touched and hurt more than he’s ever been in his career.

Gaethje provides an interesting stylistic match up here as I feel the grappling will largely be a non-factor (taking away one of Tony’s best weapons). With that being said, this fight should take place on the feet and it all comes down to whether Gaethje can limit the damage accumulation of Ferguson over the course of the fight. The longer the fight goes, the more it will favor Tony as he can keep a high pace for 25 minutes.

With a now more composed Gaethje, he has to chop the legs of Ferguson early to try to limit his mobility as much as possible. From there, he needs to get Tony out within two rounds. If he can’t do that, Tony will be able to take over the fight. Tony will overextend on punches and leave his chin up at times and that’s when Justin needs to counter to land the finishing blow.

Overall, it’s a bit of a tough fight to call as I think Tony is the better fighter in totality but as they say, “styles make fights” and this is far from as easy fight for Ferguson. Eventually, he’s going to get caught with something given his style, the question is whether or not this is the fight.

No Bet (currently)

I capped Ferguson at –150 implying a 60% chance of victory. Tony’s faced some decorated strikers in the past but he’s drawing the biggest power puncher he’s ever faced in Gaethje. Based on the current odds, it’s a dog or pass situation for me. Given that this is a 5-round fight, I’m going to need +170 or better to pull the trigger on Gaethje.

Pick: Gaethje

Let me know on Twitter @SWR_Betting your guy’s picks, predictions, and bets!

Thanks for reading and good luck on your plays!