Bitcoin (BTC) has started the day in green but things do not look good as the price is extremely unlikely to defend against a fall below the yearly low. The daily chart for BTC/USD shows the price trading in a large triangle which could break to the downside anytime now. The reason we expect it to break to the downside is because the price has failed to break above the 5 Day EMA and is expected to test the $2,972 historical support before a reversal. It also has to descend down to the 200 Week MA before a reversal can be confirmed. The bears remain confident as before and the bulls, fearing another fall, are afraid to step up.

As things stand, the bears are going to have little to no resistance dragging the price down to $3,000. However, around $3,000 we can expect the bulls to put up a serious fight. That being said, the probability of a fall below $3,000 still remains high despite the big buy walls around that level. A fall below $3,000 seems inevitable at this point. Bitcoin (BTC) is ready to fall and we are very likely to see another crash during the weekend, but the real question is, “How low could Bitcoin (BTC) fall?” The similarities between2014 and 2018 are starting to get a bit confusing as the correction has taken a long time and if this is not the final capitulation, then the current correction cycle might be a lot longer than the previous one.

The weekly chart shows signs of hope for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls as the RSI are trading along a resistance turned support. The 200 Week Moving Average is usually a very strong level for a reversal. Most markets rebound from a 200 Week MA to begin another rally. We have seen this happen countless times in other markets. It is very likely that we will see the same in the case of Bitcoin (BTC). BTC/USD will recover from the 200 Week MA but that does not mean that it may not first fall below it. In fact, in 2014 the price did fall below the 200 MA when it tested it. If this happens again, Bitcoin (BTC) might be able to test the historical support at $2,972.

The trading volume for Bitcoin (BTC) has once again started to decline. Since October, we saw some heavy trading volume that resulted in a break below market structure. There still appears to be some room for the bears to drag the price down one last time. After that, we will likely see green weeks at least for the next few months. Bitcoin (BTC) may still fall below current levels to find an actual bottom but that is not likely to happen before a retest of market structure. It is clear that the price has to fall below $3,000 in the days ahead and there might still be a lot of room for Bitcoin (BTC) to fall in order to find a permanent bottom, but under present conditions the price is likely to fall briefly below $3,000 before correcting upwards for the next few months.