This analysis showed that demographic factors have little bearing on whether Conservative members would seriously consider voting for Ukip. Ideology and perceptions of the leadership count for far more. What emerges is that those Tory members who are most tempted by Ukip are actually significantly more centrist when it comes to the economy and public services than those who are least tempted; however, they are also significantly more socially conservative. Perhaps not surprisingly, they are more worried about immigration and Europe than those least tempted by Ukip: only 57 per cent of the latter group want to leave the EU right now, compared with 92 per cent of those most tempted by Ukip. But those most taken with Mr Farage are also far less comfortable with gay marriage than those who are least taken with him: 32 per cent of more loyal Tory members support its introduction – twice the proportion expressing support among those members most tempted by Ukip. The latter are also much more likely to wish they hadn’t gone into coalition with the Lib Dems.