SPC AC 250540 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two will be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Sunday. Isolated strong wind gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... The current water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough approaching southern CA. This feature will move across the southern Rockies on Saturday before emerging into the southern Plains on Sunday. Models have been quite consistent with the timing and position of this feature, lending confidence in a focused severe weather event on Sunday over parts of OK and north TX. By afternoon, a surface low is expected to be positioned over northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward into western North TX. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along the dryline during the mid-late afternoon and track east-northeastward across a rather narrow warm sector. Forecast soundings from several 00z models indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60F. Forecast hodographs appear favorable for discrete supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds, as well as tornadoes. However, limited low-level moisture may prove to be a negative factor for a more substantial tornado event. Given the narrow corridor of instability, confidence in the eastward progress of the severe threat into AR is low at this time. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A shortwave trough currently over the central Plains will track only slowly eastward and still be affecting the eastern states on Sunday. A consensus of 00z model solutions suggest a corridor of at least marginal CAPE will develop on Sunday afternoon from northern AL/GA into WV and southeast OH. Forecast soundings suggest relatively cool mid level temperatures and strong winds aloft. These parameters would support a risk of hail and gusty/damaging winds in the stronger cells that form. The risk of severe storms should diminish around sunset. ..Hart.. 03/25/2017 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z