The last significant movement in the Presidential race occurred after the first debate. Here are national polls, unraveled day-by-day:



I calculated this for each date by taking the median of all polls that were surveying voters on each particular day. Then I smoothed it with a 3-day rolling median. It’s not perfect, but it does reveal that after the first debate Hillary Clinton gained 4 percentage points on Donald Trump. The smaller bumps are probably noise.

Oddly, the Access Hollywood video and ensuing sexual-assault scandal for Trump have not had a consequential effect yet on the Presidential race. To my thinking, the more important question is whether it will enhance the Democrats’ ability to tie Trump to downticket races.

There’s a story going around that Senate races are flat or trending Republican, even as the Presidential race is moving toward Clinton. Although it is true that several races have recently become competitive, the overall picture shows a fair amount of similarity. See the PEC aggregated-polling snapshots:



The similarity in these two graphs is remarkable. This was also the case in 2012:



However, there is one reason that a casual observer might form a different impression. Look at the graphs closely, and you will see periods when the Senate aggregate has lagged behind the Presidential Meta-Margin by 1-2 weeks. In other words, the Senate aggregate can give us a time-machine look at late September – around the time of the first Presidential debate. I suspect that Senate polls will move slightly toward Democrats in the closing weeks. The caveats are in Indiana and Wisconsin, where Democrats Evan Bayh and Russ Feingold are struggling more than one would have expected a month ago. Those races bear watching.