Wednesday’s bomb attack on a military convoy in Ankara was the fifth on Turkish soil in less than a year, bringing an unprecedented level of conflict to a country that, once upon a time, stood out for its relative tranquillity compared to its politically tumultuous neighbours.

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Like many countries, Turkey is finding it difficult to meet the security challenges emanating from the bloody, internationalised five-year war across its border in Syria. But Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has also itself to blame, having recklessly acquiesced to jihadist groups entering Syria across its borders and establishing a presence in Turkey to arm and fund their campaign to overthrow the Assad regime.

Attacks in Turkey over the past year, including those directly targeting civilians, have been attributed to jihadist groups such as Islamic State. Other jihadist groups that have recently emerged and thrived under Turkish patronage include Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria.

However, the Turkish government has already attributed Wednesday’s attack to Kurdish group the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) or its sister-group in Syria, the Democratic Union party (PYD). Both have denied involvement.

After a two-year ceasefire, conflict between Turkey and the PKK has been renewed over the past year, which has led to destruction in multiple towns and cities in Turkey’s Kurdish-dominated south-east. Yet if the government’s contentions about Wednesday’s attacks are true, the path to a solution becomes much clearer.

Turkey and its population are familiar with the PKK. It has, for the past 40 years, fought the Turkish state, initially for Kurdish statehood. It now seeks integration for the country’s 20 million oppressed Kurds by way of greater political and cultural rights. The PKK has members and supporters among NGOs, teachers, trade unions, grass-roots organisations and other elements of civil society.

These realities are not lost on the Turkish population or the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has previously argued that the PKK cannot be defeated through military force and has advocated negotiations and a lasting settlement with the group.

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Turkey can also live with the rise of the PYD in Syria. The group has emerged as the de facto government of Syria’s Kurdish region in its north-east and looks set to continue in this capacity for the long-term, in much the same way Iraq’s Kurds have developed their autonomous region over the past 20 years.

Turkey now has a strong relationship with Iraq’s Kurds, based on mutual strategic and commercial interests, despite its initial reluctance to acknowledge the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq. Turkey may have no choice but to do the same with Syria’s Kurds, who have been undertaking state-building measures since 2012.

The situation on the ground is unlikely to change, particularly because Syria’s Kurds are backed by both the US and the Russians, which has escalated its military role in Syria and could repel any Turkish advances.

The US has made it clear where it stands with respect to the PKK and PYD: it now recognises the two groups as crucial partners in the war on Isis. Asked to choose between Turkey and the PYD by Erdoğan last week, the US made it clear that its partnership with the PYD was not up for negotiation.

The west, particularly the US, must shoulder some responsibility for the renewed conflict between Turkey and the PKK. It has failed to play a more proactive role in alleviating tensions between its two allies and will have to mediate a peace process if it wants the PKK and the PYD to remain focused on Isis.

Erdoğan also has objectives in mind that will worsen tensions at the expense of the Turkish population. He has no appetite for peace as he seeks greater presidential powers by way of a proposed referendum. His hope is that conflict with the PKK will rally the nationalist vote and give him the support he needs. Turkey’s allies, such as the US, must do their part to stop Erdoğan from continuing in this vein.

Erdoğan is becoming increasingly isolated. He will have to choose between peace with the Kurds, or his personal ambitions and the costly policy of backing jihadis in Syria – both of which are likely to hurt Turkey in the long run much more than the PKK can.