The Philadelphia Eagles shocked the world when they upset the Atlanta Falcons in the divisional round and they did it again in grander fashion against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game, winning both games by a combined score of 53-17.

What are the chances they can shock the world a third time when they play the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII? The Eagles will not have the benefit of homefield advantage in the Super Bowl and that could throw a wrench in their entire plan.

Philadelphia owns the league-best point differential at home, winning by an average of 15.8 points per home game and they allow a league-best 12.4 points per home game. For comparison, the Patriots have the fifth-best point differential at home, winning by an average of 9.3 points per home game and allowing 20.1 points per home game, roughly a touchdown tighter than Philadelphia.

But when the Eagles go on the road, their advantage plummets as they win by an average of 5.0 points per game- still the sixth-best mark in the league, but a clear drop. They also allow an average of 23.5 points per game, which ranks 16th. The Patriots lead the NFL with an average road win of 11.8 points per game and the defense allows just 16.1 points per game, the second-best mark in the NFL.

The Eagles had the seventh-largest drop in point differential when they move from their stadium to playing on the road, indicating a potential weakness when they don’t have their homefield advantage.

Conversely, the Patriots are one of just seven teams in the NFL to have a superior point differential on the road versus at home, so they’re prepared to step up their game in the Super Bowl.

Factor in all of the Patriots experience at dealing with the Super Bowl circus and New England should be a lot more comfortable with both the stadium and the flow of the game than the Eagles.