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1. Sixto Sanchez, RHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 70 55 70 60 60

Background: Let’s be honest: from the Marlins’ point of view the Christian Yelich trade was an utter disaster. Yelich, who is fresh off of his team friendly contract extension, turned in back-to-back otherworldly campaigns. And, well, the Marlins’ return has been quite blah. Monte Harrison has been a league average bat in Class AA and Class AAA since 2018. Lewis Brinson owns a laughably poor .189/.238/.294 in 184 big league games with the Marlins. Isan Diaz looked miserable in his debut in Class AA two years, but rebounded in the offense-inducing environment known as the PCL last season. And Jordan Yamamoto looks like a solid #4 starting pitcher. And, to be honest, it looked like the club’s mega-deal with the Phillies had the potential to move down the same path when they traded All-Star backstop J.T. Realmuto for an injured – though, admittedly, potentially franchise-altering – pitcher with a worrisome elbow, a finesse left-hander (Will Stewart), and solid big league catcher (Jorge Alfaro). But Sixto Sanchez came roaring back from the wonky elbow like a bat of out hell. After two brief starts in the Florida State League, the 6-foot, 185-pound firebolt-slinging right-hander chewed through the Southern League like a wolf devouring its prey. The Dominican Dandy finished his stint in Class AA, the minors’ most important challenge, with 97 strikeouts and just 19 walks with a 2.53 ERA in 103.0 innings of work.

Scouting Report: I have to be honest: I’m not sure I would’ve had the fortitude to make the trade the Marlins did when they acquired Sixto Sanchez. He was limited to just 46.2 early season innings in 2018. And a setback with the elbow curtailed his Arizona Fall League debut before it even began. A few months later Miami’s front office pegged him as the centerpiece of a deal involving one of the best backstops in professional baseball. But here we are. And it’s proving to be a brilliant deal. Sanchez’s repertoire just screams top-of-the-rotation caliber pitcher. His fastball was sitting mid- to upper-90s with the effort of throwing a slow pitch softball. His changeup jumped from a potential plus pitch to a plus-plus weapon. And he showed a level of confidence in the offering that’s reminiscent of an in-his-prime Pedro Martinez. And his curveball falls in line with a 55-grade. But what makes Sanchez’s high ceiling actually obtainable is his ability to throw – consistent – pitcher’s pitches. He’s a bonafide, budding ace. As long as the body holds up.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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2. Edward Cabrera, RHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 70 65 55 55 60

Background: One of the bigger surprises in a now bountiful farm system. The wiry right-hander looked every part of a budding ace during his breakout campaign between the Florida State and Southern Leagues in 2019. A native of Santiago, Dominican Republic, Cabrera showcased some promising peripherals during his stint with Batavia in 2017 (8.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9) and his season with Greensboro a year later (8.3 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9). Last season, though, the 6-foot-4, 175-pound loose-armed fireballer began his fourth minor league campaign on a bit of sour note: he allowed four earned runs and walked more than he fanned in a 4.1-inning start against the Palm Beach Cardinals. From then on he didn’t allow a run – earned or unearned – over his next four starts. Miami promoted the baby faced hurler up to Class AA, the minors’ toughest challenge, near the end of June. In total, Cabrera tossed 96.1 innings, recording 116 punch outs and just 31 walks to go along with a barely-there 2.23 ERA.

Scouting Report: I scouted a handful of Cabrera’s games in Class AA season. The main takeaway: he’s evolving from a thrower into a full-fledged pitcher. He’s always possessed a plus-plus fastball and that wipeout, hard-tilting slider, and a lot his early success was simply from overpowering low level hitters. Last season, though, his changeup progressed into an above-average weapon – one that (A) he showed a significant amount of trust in and (B) adds a third swing-and-miss option to his repertoire. It’s power changeup, sitting in the 91- to 92-mph range, with some dive to it. Cabrera has the look, build, and repertoire of a #2/#3-type arm. I really, really like him.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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3. J.J. Bleday, RF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50 60 30 50 50 60

Background: The lynchpin in a potent Commodores lineup last season; Bleday, a hulking right field out of Panama City, Florida, teamed with Ethan Paul, Philip Clarke, Austin Martin, Stephen Scott, Cooper Davis, and Pat DeMarco to thrust the school’s offense towards the best in college baseball. Out of Mosley High School where he earned Third-Team All-American recognition by Rawlings/Perfect Game, Bleday turned in a solid freshman campaign for the SEC powerhouse three years ago: in 51 games for long-time skipper Tim Corbin, he posted a respectable .256/.384/.341 triple-slash line, belting out eight doubles and a pair of homeruns. Bleday spent the ensuing summer playing for the Newport Gulls in the New England Collegiate League, batting .232/.376/.449.The 6-foot-3, 205-pound corner outfielder showed tremendous strides at the dish during his follow-up campaign en route to slugging .368/.494/.511 with five doubles, one triple, and four homeruns in an injury-abbreviated season. Bleday continued to swing an impressive stick as he moved into the Cape Cod League during the summer as well, hitting .311/.374/.500 with nine doubles, two triples, and five homeruns in 36 games with the Orleans Firebirds. Described by Corbin as a “very low maintenance young man”, Bleday’s power blossomed into a legitimate plus tool in 2019: he slugged 13 doubles and a career-best 26 homeruns while batting .350/.464/.717. Miami made the former Commodore the fourth overall pick last season, signing him to a deal worth $6.7 million, and pushed him – aggressively into High Class A for his professional debut. He hit .257/.311/.379 in 38 games with the Jupiter Hammerheads.

Scouting Report: Here’s what I wrote prior to the draft last season:

“Currently tied with Tulane’s Kody Hoese for the lead in homeruns among all DI hitters; Bleday’s thump has pushed his prospect status up towards the early part of the opening round. Consider the following:

Since 2011 here’s the list of SEC hitters to slug at least 20 homeruns in a season: Andrew Benintendi, Jonathan India, A.J. Reed, Brent Rooker, Chad Spanberger, and – of course – J.J. Bleday.

Let’s continue…

Of those six players, five of them walked at least 15% of the time and fanned in few than 20% of their plate appearances: Benintendi, India, Reed, Rooker, and Bleday.

Ignoring Bleday momentarily, here’s where the remaining members of the group were drafted: seventh overall (Benintendi), fifth overall (India), 35th overall (Rooker), and 42nd overall (Reed).

Moving along…

Player Year Age PA AVG OBP SLG K% BB% J.J. Bleday 2019 21 216 0.337 0.447 0.750 18.52% 15.74% Brent Rooker 2017 23 309 0.387 0.495 0.810 18.77% 15.53% Andrew Benintendi 2015 20 288 0.376 0.488 0.717 11.11% 17.36% Jonathan India 2018 21 300 0.350 0.497 0.717 18.67% 20.00% A.J. Reed 2014 21 290 0.336 0.476 0.735 16.55% 16.90%

That’s pretty favorable company. Let’s take a look at his production in the Cape in 2018. Consider the following:

Bleday shows easy nature loft in his swing which allows his plus-raw power to transition into plus-in-game power. Bleday tends to be too pull happy, so he’s likely going to face a plethora of defensive shifts. He looks like a capable starting outfielder, though one not destined for stardom.”

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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4. Jazz Chisholm, SS

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 40/45 65 50 50 45+ 60

Background: The Marlins and Diamondbacks got together on an old fashioned challenge trade at the deadline last July. Miami dealt underrated right-hander Zac Gallen – and his sub-3.00 ERA and impressive strikeout rate – for lefty-swinging shortstop Jazz Chisholm. Originally signed out of Nassau, Bahamas, for the relatively modest sum of $200,000 in 2015, Chisholm began shooting up prospect charts after a strong second showing in the Midwest League and an explosion in the hitter-friendly confines of Visalia’s home park two years ago when he slugged an aggregate .272/.329/.513 with 54 extra-base hits. Last season, the 5-foot-11, 165-pound shortstop played in 112 games between both organizations’ Southern League affiliates, hitting a combined .220/.321/.441 with 10 doubles, seven triples, 21 homeruns, and 16 stolen bases. His overall production, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by roughly 6%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, there have been nineteen different 21-year-old hitters to post a DRC+ total between 100 and 110 in the Southern League (min. 300 PA) in a season. Yorman Rodriguez, Taylor Trammell, a current Padres top prospect, and Trent Grisham, whom the Padres just acquired, own the second, third, and fourth highest strikeout rates among the group (23.3%, 22.6%, and 21.5%, respectively). Chisholm sports the worst – by a mile – with his 32.1% whiff rate.

Continuing:

Using the same parameters for all three Class AA leagues, only two 21-year-old hitters with a DRC+ between 100 and 110 have fanned in more than 30% of their plate appearances: Chisholm and Willy Garcia.

Now, to be completely fair, Chisholm looked completely rejuvenated in his 98-game stint in the Marlins system. But the facts are clear as day, still: he can’t hit left-handed pitching and he’s fanning way too frequently. And on top of that this is the exact type of trade that the Marlins whiffed on – punned intended – by trading Yelich for a package of volatile prospects. Chisholm owns an intriguing power / speed blend not often seen at shortstop. And the Marlins’ development engine has been tremendous strides in the past year in terms of player development, so that adds a layer of hope. A potential saving grace: Chisholm’s average exit velocity was a stout 91 mph with a peak of 108 mph. Boom or Bust. Go Big, or Go Home.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

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5. Jesus Sanchez, RF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50 45/55 35 50 50+ 50

Background: With the new regime in place, the Marlins have been incredibly active on the trade market by adding a bevy of fresh blood to the organization in the likes of Sixto Sanchez, Jazz Chisholm, Lewin Diaz, Monte Harrison, Jordan Yamamoto, Isan Diaz, Lewis Brinson, and – of course – right fielder Jesus Sanchez. Born in Higuey, Dominican Republic, Sanchez spent the first four-and-a-half years of his professional career grinding through the Rays’ system. Miami acquired the well-built 6-foot-3, 230-pound slugger, along with hard-throwing right-hander Ryne Stanek, for right-handers Trevor Richards and Nick Anderson. Sanchez split last season between Class AA and Class AAA, batting an aggregate .260/.325/.398 with 14 doubles, two triples, and 13 homeruns.

Scouting Report: So let’s take a look at Sanchez’s performance in Class AA last season. Consider the following:

Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hitters have met the following criteria in the Southern League (min. 300 PA): 117 to 127 DRC+; a walk rate between 6% and 8%; and a strikeout rate between 17% and 21%. Those three hitters: Alex Kirilloff, one of the best prospects in baseball; Dustin Peterson, and – of course – Jesus Sanchez.

The power’s taking a bit longer to develop, but there’s thunder in the bat – something along the lines of 20 to 25 homeruns in a season. The contact rates are solid. The defense is above-average. And the lefty-swinging outfielder isn’t showing any problematic platoon splits. Sanchez may not develop into a full-blown star, but he’s set to become a reliable, above-average right fielder for many, many years to come. In terms of offensive ceiling, think Corey Seager’s 2019 campaign in which he batted .272/.335/.483. One more final thought: per FanGraphs’ data, Sanchez’s batted ball data was near the top last season as his average exit velocity was 92 mph with a peak of 111 mph.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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6. Lewin Diaz, 1B

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50 55+ 30 50 50 50

Background: Oh, just another one of the many new, fresh faces added to the organization’s resurgent – and emerging – farm system. Miami acquired the middle-of-the-lineup thumper for hard-throwing right-hander Chris Vallimont, veteran reliever Sergio Romo, and a player to be named later. Diaz, a well-built 6-foot-4, 225-pound first baseman, rebounded after a terrible 2018 campaign in which he batted a lowly .224/.255/.344 in High Class A. He opened up last season back in the Florida State League. And the results were significantly improved. He slugged .290/.333/.533 with 57 games. Minnesota bounced him up to the Southern League and he hit .302/.341/.587 in 33 games before the trade. Diaz’s numbers took a noticeable dive after he slid into the Marlins’ system. And he finished the year with an aggregate .270/.321/.530 with 33 doubles, two triples, and a career best 27 homeruns.

Scouting Report: The young first baseman shows an intriguing blend of plus-power potential and strong contact rates. He struggled a bit against left-handers for the first time in his career last season, so a strong bounce back is incredibly likely. And he’s surprisingly adapt at spraying the ball around the field. There’s a reasonable chance that he repeats his minor league line last season – .270/.321/.530 – at the big league level during his peak. If he’s promoted up to The Show in the early part of the 2020 season, Diaz could be a dark horse candidate for the Rookie of the Year.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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7. Braxton Garrett, LHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 50 55 55 50/55 50

Background: The second prep arm taken in the opening round of the 2016 draft – and second southpaw – Garrett was viewed one of the safer arms available in the class, offering up a strong feel for his offspeed pitches and oozing pitchability. But after a brief four-game stint in the South Atlantic League in 2017 – he tossed just 15.1 innings – the 6-foot-3, 190-pound left-hander succumbed to elbow woes and eventually hit the operating table for Tommy John surgery. He missed the remainder of 2017 season and the entire 2018 season. Finally healthy, Garrett spent the majority of last season working out of the Jupiter Hammerheads’ rotation. In 20 starts, the lefty fanned 118 and walked just 37 in 105.0 innings of work. He compiled a 3.34 ERA and a 4.85 DRA (Deserved Runs Average). Garrett also made one disastrous start in the Southern League at the end of the year.

Scouting Report: Garrett looked like the prototypical crafty lefty in his return from injury. His fastball continued to sit in the low-90s. His curveball didn’t look quite as sharp as years past, though it’s still an above-average offering. And his changeup looked better than advertised. Ignoring Braxton’s first three starts of the year – due to his long layoff and injury – and his final three starts of the year, where he was clearly tiring, the big southpaw tallied an impressive 91-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 82.0 innings. He looks like a nice, solid #4-type arm – a league average starting pitcher to help fill out a club’s rotation.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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8. Trevor Rogers. LHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 50 50 55 50 55/60 50

Background: Taken in between a couple other prep stars – flame-throwing right-hander Shane Baz and sweet-and-sour swinging first baseman Nick Pratto – with the 13th overall pick; Rogers signed for a hefty $3.4 million. The 6-foot-6, 185-pound southpaw wouldn’t make his debut until the following season. In 17 starts with the Greensboro Grasshoppers, the Carlsbad High School product posted a promising an 85-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 72.2 innings of work. Rogers opened up last season with 18 strong starts with the Hammerheads, fanning 122 and walking just 24 in 110.1 innings of work. He capped off his sophomore season with five starts in the minors’ toughest level, Class AA. In total, Rogers tossed a 136.1 innings of work, tallying a 150 punch outs and just 33 walks to go along with a 2.90 ERA.

Scouting Report: The fastball velocity’s backed up – so much so, in fact, I caught more of Rogers’ starts than any other pitcher in the minor leagues last season because, well, I couldn’t believe it. Last season it lacked the same type of life he showed the previous year; it was sitting in the upper 80s and would kiss 90 mph on occasion. He complements the average offering with a variety of breaking pitches: an above-average slider that he will vary the break on, sometimes showing it as a true slider and other times it acts as more of a traditional cutter; and he’ll throw a fringy curveball. Rogers will also mix in a respectable, average-ish changeup. His large wingspan, long limbs, and pinpoint accuracy allow his repertoire to play up. Equipped with a better fastball two years ago Rogers looked like a #3-type arm. Now, though, he’s been downgraded into #4 / #5 territory. With respect to his work in High Class A last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old pitchers to fan between 26% and 28% the hitters they faced in the Florida State League (min. 100 IP): Touki Toussaint, Adonis Medina, Braxton Garrett, and Trevor Rogers.

A few final thoughts: Rogers owned – by far – the best walk percentage among the group, as well as showcasing the lowest graded fastball.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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9. Kameron Misner, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50/55 50 60 55 55 50

Background: A decorated two-way prospect coming out of Poplar Bluff High School. Misner, a 6-foot-4, 219-pound first baseman / centerfielder, was ranked by Perfect Game as the third best prospect – and top outfielder – in the state of Missouri. Misner slugged a robust .422 with eight doubles, nine triples, and eight homeruns with a whopping 29 stolen bases during his senior season. And he also posted a tidy 2.13 ERA across 32.0 innings on the mound, striking out a team-leading 48 hitters. The Kansas City Royals took a late round flier on the Missouri-native as well. A three-year starter for long time Head Coach Tim Jamieson, Misner earned Freshman All-American honors after batting a hearty .282/.360/.446 with 12 doubles, one triple, and seven homeruns to go along with 17 stolen bases (in 23 attempts). He spent the ensuing summer dominating the New England Collegiate League, hitting a scorching .378/.479/.652 with 13 doubles and eight homeruns for the Newport Gulls. Misner’s production jumped up into another stratosphere during his sophomore campaign, but a foot injury knocked him out of the club’s final 22 contests. He finished the year with a Ruthian .360/.497/.576 with nine doubles, three triples, and a four homeruns in only 34 games. Last season Misner’s production has backed up a touch: the tools-laden first baseman/outfielder hit a solid .286/.440/.481 with 20 extra-base hits (10 doubles and 10 homeruns) while swiping 20 bags against just one caught stealing. Miami drafted Misner in the back up the first round, 35th overall, and sent him to the Midwest League after a quick detour in rookie ball. In 34 games with Clinton, Misner batted .276/.380/.373 with seven doubles and pair of homeruns while going a perfect 8-for-8 in the stolen base department.

Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about him prior to the draft last season:

“With respect to his breakout, injury-shortened 2018 campaign, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2018, only five SEC hitters slugged at least .350/.475/.550 in a season (min. 150 PA): Andrew Benintendi, Jonathan India, Mikie Mahtook, Brent Rooker, and – of course – Kameron Misner. Benintendi, India, Mahtook, and Rooker were all taken in the opening round.

So know let’s take a look at his work thus far in 2019. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2018, only one other SEC hitter posted a 20% walk rate with a strikeout rate north of 18% (min. 250 PA): University of Florida slugger, and fifth overall pick in 2018, Jonathan India.

Consider the following:

Player Age Year PA AVG OBP SLG K% BB% Kameron Misner 21 2019 262 0.287 0.443 0.485 21.40% 20.60% Jonathan India 21 2018 300 0.350 0.497 0.717 18.70% 20.00%

Obviously, India’s overall production dwarfs Misner’s numbers this season. The University of Missouri star has loud, loud tools: above-average power potential, above-average speed, and a phenomenal eye at the plate. The hit tool, though, is questionable. Misner took some important strides during his sophomore season – he cut his punch out rate down to 16.3% – but the progress has been undone this season. If he can stick in center field, he’s an above-average – albeit risky – starting outfielder. He has a lot of Bradley Zimmer in him.”

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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10. Jorge Guzman, RHP

FB SL CH Command Overall 80 60 40 40 50

Background: Equipped with a blistering fastball that ranks among the best in all of professional baseball. Miami acquired the talented, though sometimes erratic, righty in the Giancarlo Stanton money dump with the New York Yankees on December 11th, 2017. Guzman, a native of Las Matas de Santa Cruz, Dominican Republic, made the leap from the New York-Penn League to High Class A two years ago. And the results were…interesting. Throwing 96.0 innings across 21 starts for the Jupiter Hammerheads, the broad-shoulder hurler tallied a 4.03 ERA despite walking 64 hitters – or an average of 6.0 walks every nine innings. Guzman spent last season in the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, and showed some progress in terms of locating the strike zone. In a career best 138.2 innings of work, he fanned 127 and walked 71 to go along with a 3.50 ERA and a 4.16 DRA (Deserved Runs Average).

Scouting Report: An easy 80-grade fastball that looks effortless. The Marlins’ player development engine saw several players take major strides in 2019, but Guzman honing in on the strike zone more frequently ranks near the top of the list. His slider is a devastating secondary weapon that haunts hitters’ nightmares. But at this point he is what he is. And that’s a potential late-inning, high leverage, mow-‘em-down reliever masquerading as a starting pitcher. His lack of control / command and a third pitch have all but made it official. The Marlins just haven’t made the move – yet. He could be the rare reliever that tallies more two wins above replacement – a sort of Dellin Betances type arm.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.