With 46,000 union members striking at plants across the U.S., including Detroit-Hamtramck, Orion Township, Delta Township and others, loss of consumer spending and tax revenue is already taking hold, said Patrick Anderson, president and CEO.

"We already know suppliers and contractors that are affected, anecdotally," Anderson said. "Places like Delta Township (near Lansing) that are reliant on the GM economy, there's already an effect. If (the strike) gets to the end of the week, we'll start to see furlough notices at major suppliers, and that's when things get bad."

The research doesn't project how large the economic impact of the strike would be, but Anderson said a single-state recession is possible given the size of GM and its employment base if the strike goes on long enough.

Anderson said he fears a prolonged strike would have a lasting effect on the state's economy and the domestic car industry, given negative attention both GM and UAW have received in recent years.

The UAW is embroiled in a federal corruption investigation, with many of its top brass indicted of taking bribes and funding a lucrative lifestyle with union dues. GM is only a decade removed from its government bailout and a few years past a problem with ignition switch failures that led to the deaths of more than 100 people.

"I fear there will be a serious miscalculation by the UAW that could have repercussions for years," he said. "GM is under 17 percent of market share in the U.S. There is ample opportunity for consumers to shop other automakers."

GM has enough inventory that its management can hold out on a deal with the union, Anderson said. The automaker has thousands of vehicles in its inventory pipeline, with enough cars on lots to maintain a production stoppage of 90 days for Buick models, 133 days for Cadillac models and 125 days for its popular Yukon SUV, the analysis said.

"This is a dangerous situation for the Detroit-based auto economy," Anderson said.

The UAW went on strike at just before midnight Monday. A person with knowledge of the talks told Automotive News that the two sides had agreed in principle on just 2 percent of the key points found in a typical contract.

GM's initial offer called for workers to pay 15 percent of health care expenses — well below the national average of 28 percent but far higher than the 3 percent to 4 percent workers currently pay. The union balked at the proposal, and the automaker quickly walked it back and offered to keep members' obligations at existing levels, according to Automotive News sources.

On pay, the automaker proposed two wage increases of 2 percent and two lump sum payments of 2 percent, according to Mike Warchuck, president of UAW Local 653, who was briefed on the plan Sunday by UAW-GM VP Terry Dittes.

Dittes called the union's first strike against GM since 2007 a "last resort" after negotiations broke down.

"It represents great sacrifice and great courage on the part of our members and all of us," he said Sunday.