THE BIG RED POLL





Politics in Kentucky





April 11-15, 2018





Dr. Joel Turner

Director, WKU Social Science Research Center





SURVEY METHODOLOGY

The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a student-led, live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 531 Kentucky residents between April 11-15, 2018. 67% of respondents were reached via land line, and 33% were reached via cell phone. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.

DONALD TRUMP

45% approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, 45% disapprove, and 10% are undecided. 73% of Republicans approve of the President, while only 23% of Democrats and 33% of Independents approve of the job Trump is doing. Trump has a 65% approval rating among conservatives, 42% approval among moderates, and 16% approval among liberals.

MATT BEVIN

Only 32% of Kentuckians approve of the job Matt Bevin is doing as governor, while 56% disapprove, and 12% are undecided. Bevin has an approval rating of 45% among Republicans, 17% among Democrats, and 32% among Independents. Bevin has a 46% approval rating among conservatives, 25% approval among moderates, and 20% approval among liberals.





KENTUCKY LEGISLATURE

Only 25% of Kentuckians approve of the job done by the Kentucky legislature. 58% disapprove, and 17% are undecided. The legislature has a 31% approval rating among Republicans, 20% among Democrats, and 23% among Independents. The legislature has a 26% approval rating among conservatives, 26% approval among moderates, and 19% approval among liberals.

MITCH MCCONNELL

30% of Kentuckians approve of the job Mitch McConnell is doing as Senator. 56% disapprove, and 14% are undecided. He has an approval rating of 37% among Republicans, 21% among Democrats, and 30% among Independents. McConnell has a 28% approval rating among conservatives, 35% approval among moderates, and 21% approval among liberals.

RAND PAUL

Among state politicians we asked about Rand Paul has the highest approval rating at 45%. 42% of Kentuckians disapprove, and 13% are undecided. He has an approval rating of 60% among Republicans, 23% among Democrats, and 55% among Independents. Paul has a 60% approval rating among conservatives, 43% approval among moderates, and 24% approval among liberals.





BIGGEST PROBLEM

Respondents were asked to name the biggest problem currently facing Kentucky. The answer most commonly given was the pension crisis (19%), followed by the opiod crisis (15%) and education (10%). Of course, it is possible that at least some of those mentioning education would have been referring to the pension situation. No other problem mentioned managed to reach double digits in terms of frequency.





PENSION CRISIS

We asked a variety of questions regarding the pension crisis facing Kentucky. First, we asked respondents if they favored Governor Bevin’s position, the teacher’s position, or if they were neutral between the two. 53% expressed support for the teachers, 16% expressed support for the Governor, and 20% indicated neutrality. From a partisan standpoint, support for the Governor’s position was highest among Republicans (28%), while support for the teacher’s position exceeded 50% among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Ideologically, support for the Governor’s position is highest among conservatives (30%), while the greatest support for teachers comes from liberals (75%).





Compounding problems for the Governor, 62% disapproved of the manner in which he has handled the pension issue, while only 29% approve of his handling of it. His highest level of approval came from conservatives (43%) and Republicans (41%), while the greatest disapproval came from liberals and Democrats (78% each).





We also asked respondents about their level of support for tax increases, marijuana legalization, and casino gambling as mechanism by which to address the pension shortfall. Casino gambling was the most popular option (56%). This option was supported by 58% of Republican, 57% of Democrats, and 56% of Independents. Marijuana legalization (46%) was the second most popular option. Marijuana legalization was supported by 51% of Democrats, 47% of Independents, and 43% of Republicans. Tax increases, with only 29% support, was the least popular option among Kentuckians.





In the wake of recent teacher protests, we also asked if these demonstrations, and accompanying school closings, made respondents more likely to support, less likely to support, or had no impact on support for pension reform. The protests appear to have had the desired effect, as 36% indicated it made them less likely to support pension reform. 32% indicated that these actions had no impact, and 18% indicated it made them more likely to support pension reform. These protests also had a positive impact across all partisan and ideological groups, as they made conservatives (30%), moderates (37%), and liberals (48%) all less likely to support pension reform.





During the midst of the survey, the Governor made his controversial remarks regarding children in Kentucky being sexually assaulted or otherwise harmed due to being left at home unattended as a result of the teacher protest and corresponding school cancellations. Although the sample is not large enough to make broad claims regarding the impact of this, we do have enough pre- and post-comment data to take a look at the general impact of these remarks.





Roughly a quarter of the sample was contacted after Bevin’s remarks. What we see is roughly a 7 point decline as his approval before the remarks was 34%, while his approval after the remarks was 27%. His disapproval rose from 55% before his remarks to 60% after his remarks. Although we do not have enough respondents pre- and post-remarks to perform more nuanced analysis, it does appear that they did indeed negatively impact his approval.





GUN POLICY

We asked a variety of questions regarding gun policy in the wake of high profile school shootings that have occurred in the U.S. First, we asked respondents if they favored having an armed resource officer at all public schools. This proposal received overwhelming support from Kentuckians (70%). Support for this was bipartisan, as it was supported by 78% of Republicans, 72% of Independents, and 63% of Democrats, and crossed ideological lines, as it was supported by a majority of moderates, liberals, and conservatives. Additionally, 63% of those in favor of this also supported a tax increase in order to pay for it. Again, in each instance a majority of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents demonstrated support for this proposal.





Finally, 70% of respondents favored raising the minimum age to purchase an AR-15 from 18 to 21. This policy was supported by 79% of Democrats, 73% of Independents, and 64% of Republicans. This proposal also received 82% support from liberals, 79% support from moderates, and 62% from conservatives.





ABOUT THE WKU SSRC

The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews. For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).





DONALD TRUMP

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?





Gender Party Id Ideology Income

All Men Women Rep Dem Ind Con Mod Lib <50 50<100 100+ Approve 45 52 43 73 22 33 65 42 16 49 44 48 Disapprove 45 39 46 17 76 48 26 42 82 42 44 45 Not sure/refused 10 9 11 10 2 19 19 18 2 10 12 8







Age Race Education

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ White Non-White HS or less College Adv. Degree Approve 40 30 33 54 75 41 44 50 35 Disapprove 32 40 38 30 10 38 41 41 62 Not sure/refused 28 40 19 16 15 10 15 19 3





MATT BEVIN

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Matt Bevin is handling his job as Governor?





Gender Party Id Ideology Income

All Men Women Rep Dem Ind Con Mod Lib <50 50<100 100+ Approve 32 41 29 45 18 32 47 25 20 34 24 40 Disapprove 56 54 57 43 76 51 41 62 72 55 60 52 Not sure/refused 12 5 13 12 6 17 12 13 8 11 16 8







Age Race Education

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ White Non-White HS or less College Adv. Degree Approve 30 30 33 37 32 32 36 31 32 Disapprove 55 56 55 61 56 59 55 55 56 Not sure/refused 15 14 12 2 12 9 9 14 12

KENTUCKY LEGISLATURE

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Kentucky state legislature is handling its job?





Gender Party Id Ideology Income

All Men Women Rep Dem Ind Con Mod Lib <50 50<100 100+ Approve 25 21 24 31 20 23 26 26 19 26 22 25 Disapprove 58 57 57 50 65 61 57 54 70 52 73 58 Not sure/refused 17 12 19 19 15 16 17 20 11 22 5 17







Age Race Education AD 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ White Non-White HS or less College Adv. Degree Approve 31 27 20 16 24 28 26 25 20 Disapprove 58 55 59 64 58 57 54 58 69 Not sure/refused 11 18 21 20 18 15 20 17 11





MITCH MCCONNELL

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mitch McConnell is handling his job as Senator?





Gender Party Id Ideology Income

All Men Women Rep Dem Ind Con Mod Lib <50 50<100 100+ Approve 30 31 30 37 21 30 28 35 21 32 28 27 Disapprove 56 61 54 47 67 56 60 47 68 53 60 62 Not sure/refused 14 8 16 16 12 14 12 18 11 15 12 11







Age Race Education

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ White Non-White HS or less College Adv. Degree Approve 45 28 23 14 30 31 34 28 26 Disapprove 45 58 63 64 58 43 56 55 65 Not sure/refused 10 14 14 22 12 26 10 17 9





RAND PAUL

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rand Paul is handling his job as Senator?





Gender Party Id Ideology Income

All Men Women Rep Dem Ind Con Mod Lib <50 50<100 100+ Approve 45 51 43 60 23 55 60 43 24 46 36 45 Disapprove 42 43 42 28 61 38 31 38 65 40 52 43 Not sure/refused 13 6 15 12 14 8 9 19 11 14 12 12







Age Race Education

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ White Non-White HS or less College Adv. Degree Approve 43 52 38 44 46 39 39 50 44 Disapprove 42 37 47 50 41 53 48 38 47 Not sure/refused 15 11 15 6 13 8 13 12 9





PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Regardless of how you voted in the last election, do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?





Democrat 36%

Independent 20%

Republican 40%

Not Sure 4%





IDEOLOGY

On a scale of one to ten where one represents very liberal and ten represents very conservative where would you place yourself? ***(1-4 classified as liberal, 5-6 as moderate, and 7-10 as conservative)***





Liberal 24%

Moderate 32%

Conservative 40%

Refused 4%









SEX

What is your sex?





Male 46%

Female 54%





EDUCATION

What is the highest level of formal education you completed?





Less Than High School 2%

Some High School 3%

High School Graduate/GED 26%

Vocational/Technical School 10%

Some College 21%

College Degree 26%

Post-Graduate Degree 12%





RACE

Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else? ***(collapsed into white/non-white categories)***





White 88%

Non-white 12%





AGE

What is your age?





18-34 26%

35-49 30%

50-64 30%

65+ 18%





INCOME

Which of the following categories best describes your total household yearly income? Less than 25,000, 25,000 to less than 50,000, 50,000 to less than 75,000, 75,000 to less than 100,000, or 100,000 or more? ***(collapsed into less than 50,000, 50,000 to 100,000, and more than 100,000)***





Less than 50,000 46%

50,000 to <100,000 38%

100,000 or more 16%

Refused 9%





PENSION 1

Governor Bevin and a large number of teachers have been in disagreement over how to reform the pension for Kentucky teachers. Are you generally more supportive of the Governors position, the teachers’ position, or are you generally neutral in the in the political debate over pension reform.





Governor 16%

Teachers 53%

Neutral 20%

Not sure/refused 11%







Party Id Ideology

Rep Dem Ind Con Mod Lib Governor 28 6 10 30 9 7 Teachers 38 71 50 36 63 75 Neutral 24 13 28 26 19 12 Not sure/refused 8 10 13 8 9 6





PENSION 2

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Bevin has handled the pension crisis?





Approve 29%

Disapprove 62%

Not sure/Refused 9%







Party Id Ideology

Rep Dem Ind Con Mod Lib Approve 41 16 32 43 24 18 Disapprove 48 78 60 48 66 78 Not sure/refused 11 7 8 9 10 5





PENSION 3

Several school districts across Kentucky closed over the past couple of weeks to allow teacher to go to Frankfort to protest pension reform legislation. Did these actions make you more likely to support, less likely to support, or have no impact on your support of proposed pension reform?





More likely 18%

Less likely 36%

No impact 32%

Not sure/Refused 14%







Party Id Ideology

Rep Dem Ind Con Mod Lib More likely 23 18 16 22 18 17 Less likely 36 44 27 30 37 48 No impact 23 27 43 44 33 16 Not sure/refused 18 12 14 4 1 0





PENSION 4

Do you support or oppose the following proposals as ways to help the state government fund the state's pension obligations?





Tax increases

Support 24%

Oppose 54%

Not sure/Refused 22%





Marijuana Legalization

Support 46%

Oppose 39%

Not sure/Refused 15%





Casino Gambling

Support 56%

Oppose 22%

Not sure/Refused 22%





ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER

Do you think the state of Kentucky should, or should not, allocate state money each year to pay the salary and other related expenses to put a full-time armed, trained law enforcement officer -- known as a school resource officer -- in every public school in the state?





Should 70%

Should not 15%

Not sure/Refused 15%





ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER FOLLOW UP

Would you support an increase in taxes to support putting a school resource officer in every Kentucky public school? ***(asked to those who answered should to previous question)***





Yes 63%

No 20%

Not sure/Refused 17%





AR-15 AGE LIMIT

Do you think Kentucky should, or should not, pass a law raising the minimum age for purchasing a semi-automatic weapon, such as the AR-15, from 18-21 years old?





Should 70%

Should not 23%

Not sure/Refused 7%





BIGGEST PROBLEM

What do you believe is the biggest problem facing Kentucky? ***(open ended)***





Pension crisis 19%

Opiod crisis 15%

Education 10%

All others combined 56%



