Brexiteer ministers have long believed publishing the government’s preparations for a no-deal exit from the EU was a clever idea. At one point David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, wanted to roll out one big plan per week to put pressure on his EU counterparts to give ground in the negotiations.

Other ministers warned threatening Brussels with a no-deal scenario would cut no ice when the EU27 knew the UK had been slow to draw up contingency plans. But Theresa May gradually warmed to the idea, as the prospect of crashing out in March became real. In recent weeks, ministers and officials have given me six reasons why it was a good plan to publish the “technical notices” that Dominic Raab, Davis’s successor, began to unveil on Thursday.

As ever with Brexit, it was mainly about Conservative Party management. Downing Street hoped the exercise would throw a bone to ravenous Eurosceptics – many of whom would prefer no deal to be agreed and who want May to threaten to walk out of the talks – while also persuading mainstream Tory MPs and the public to rally behind May’s Chequers blueprint and an EU deal based on it.

Today the plan does not look so clever. The Chequers strategy remains unloved in Tory land. Philip Hammond’s explosive and deliberately timed reality check, warning of the “large fiscal consequences” of a no-deal departure, contradicted Raab’s sunny optimism that the UK would be better off outside the EU in the long term. The chancellor’s intervention infuriated never-satisfied Brexiteers who, having demanded the contingency measures, now whinge about a new “Project Fear”.

Another goal of the papers was to reassure a business world increasingly alarmed at the prospect of a cliff-edge departure in March. Although some preparations are better than none, I doubt Raab’s plans will provide much comfort. They need certainty and a proposed transitional period after Brexit – which would be prolonged under the current UK-EU regime until December 2020 – would be lost if there were no deal agreed. A running theme of the government’s preparations for a no-deal outcome was the extra red tape firms would face as a result – another Leave campaign promise broken.

Although Raab said the UK would take unilateral action to limit disruption in the event of a no deal outcome – in practice, sticking to EU rules and standards – he cannot guarantee the EU will reciprocate. What officials call a “quick and dirty deal” would probably be cobbled together at the last minute to keep planes flying and minimise the chaos at borders, but many companies would still be left in the lurch. Brussels insists there cannot be parallel negotiations on a “no-deal deal” while formal talks continue, and the EU’s room for manoeuvre will be limited by the legal constraint of the UK being a “third country”.

An unstated reason for issuing the contingency plans was to try to limit the political fallout from a chaotic exit in March. Imprinted on Tory minds is how the party lost its reputation for economic competence on Black Wednesday in 1992, when interest rates shot to 15 per cent as the UK left the European exchange rate mechanism. However I doubt the public would be forgiving if ministers said they had tried their best to avoid chaos, but failed.

As well as highlighting the risks to the EU of no agreement being reached – with the aim of forcing concessions – ministers hope their preparations will deflect blame for any failure to reach a deal on to Brussels. I doubt this will work either. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has already seen this one coming. “The EU will not be impressed by a blame game, and everyone should understand that,” he said.

Brexit casualties Show all 10 1 /10 Brexit casualties Brexit casualties Andrea Jenkyns - Resigned from Parliamentary Private Secretary at the ministry for housing, communities and local government role May 2018 - The Morley and Outwood MP said: “We want to see a new relationship with Europe, with a new model not enjoyed by other countries – nothing that leaves us half-in, half-out. “And in order to achieve this, we need to leave the customs union.” Ms Jenkyn’s also said she wished to dedicate more of her time to Parliament’s influential Exiting the European Union select committee, after a series of “unbalanced” reports produced by MPs PA Brexit casualties David Davis - Resigned from Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union role July 2018 - quit following a major row with May over her plans for post-Brexit relations with the EU. Davis resignation letter said: “As you know there have been a significant number of occasions in the last year or so on which I have disagreed with the Number 10 policy line, ranging from accepting the [European] Commission’s sequencing of negotiations, through to the language on Northern Ireland in the December Joint Report. “At each stage I have accepted collective responsibility because it is part of my task to find workable compromises, and because I considered it was still possible to deliver on the mandate of the referendum, and on our manifesto commitment to leave the Customs Union and the Single Market. “I am afraid that I think the current trend of policy and tactics is making that look less and less likely.” He went on to argue that the “general direction” of Ms May’s policies would leave the UK “in at best a weak negotiating position, and possibly an inescapable one”. AFP/Getty Brexit casualties Steve Baker - Resigned from Minister at the Department for Exiting the European Union role July 2018 - Mr Baker, a key Tory figure in the Leave campaign, was David Davis’s main lieutenant at Dexeu, and was hailed as ”courageous and principled” by other Brexiteer Tories as he also left. Reuters Brexit casualties Boris Johnson - Resigned from Foreign Secretary role July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. In his resignation letter to the prime minister, Mr Johnson said: "On Friday, I acknowledged that my side of the argument were too few to prevail and congratulated you on at least reaching a Cabinet decision on the way forward. "As I said then, the government now has a song to sing. "The trouble is that I have practised the words over the weekend and find that they stick in the throat." Reuters Brexit casualties Conor Burns - Resigned from Parliamentary Private Secretary to Foreign Secretary role July 2018 - A Brexit supporter who worked alongside Boris Johnson stated in his resignation letter: “I've decided it's time to have greater freedom. I want to see the referendum result respected. And there are other areas of policy I want to speak more openly on.” Rex Brexit casualties Chris Green - Resigned from Department for Transport role July 2018 - The Bolton West MP said: "Parliament overwhelmingly decided to give the decision of whether to leave or remain in the European Union to the British people and they made an unambiguous decision that we ought to leave. "I have always understood the idea in 'Brexit means Brexit' is that the final deal should be clear to me and my constituents - that we have, in no uncertain terms, left the European Union. Twitter Ads info and privacy "The direction the negotiations had been taking have suggested that we would not really leave the EU and the conclusion and statements following the Chequers summit confirmed my fears. "I recognise that delivering Brexit is challenging, however I had hoped at tonight's meeting that there would be some certainty that my fears were unfounded but, instead, they have been confirmed. "I have been grateful for the opportunity to serve as Parliamentary Private Secretary and it is with regret that I offer my resignation with immediate effect." PA Brexit casualties Maria Caulfield - Resigned from Conservative Party vice-chair for women role July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. Lewes MP warned that the direction of travel did “not fully embrace the opportunities that Brexit can provide”. Ms Caulfield said in her letter to the PM: “The policy may assuage vested interests, but the voters will find out and their representatives will be found out. This policy will be bad for our country and bad for the party. “The direct consequences of that will be prime minister Corbyn.” PA Brexit casualties Ben Bradley - Resigned from Conservative Party vice-chair for young people role July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. The Mansfield MP said: “I admit that I voted to Remain in that ballot. What has swayed me over the last two years to fully back the Brexit vision is the immense opportunities that are available from global trade, and for the ability for Britain to be an outward looking nation in control of our own destiny once again. “I fear that this agreement at Chequers damages those opportunities; that being tied to EU regulations, and the EU tying our hands when seeking to make new trade agreements, will be the worst of all worlds if we do not deliver Brexit in spirit as well as in name, then we are handing Jeremy Corbyn the keys to No10.” PA Brexit casualties Robert Courts - Resigned from Parliamentary Private Secretary role July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. MP Mr Courts said: “I have taken a very difficult decision to resign my position as [parliamentary private secretary] to express discontent with the Chequers [plans] in votes tomorrow. “I had to think who I wanted to see in the mirror for the rest of my life. I cannot tell the people of Woxon that I support the proposals in their current form.” Getty Brexit casualties Scott Mann - Resigned from Parliamentary Private Secretary role July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. "I fear elements of the Brexit white paper will inevitably put me in direct conflict with the views expressed by a large section of my constituents. I am not prepared to compromise their wishes to deliver a watered-down Brexit. "The residents of North Cornwall made it very clear that they wish to have control over our fishery, our agricultural policy, our money, our laws and our borders. I will evaluate those principles against the Brexit white paper and ensure that I vote in line with their wishes." Rex

Watching Raab’s speech, I scribbled the words “presentational nightmare”. How do you sound reassuring about something that could be disastrous, with consequences beyond your control and that you don’t want to happen but might be powerless to stop? The task will not get any easier; the word in Whitehall is some of the other 50 or so papers could highlight even bigger problems. The first 24 did not cover citizens’ rights or the intractable Irish border question.

Unintentionally, Raab turned May’s “no-deal is better than a bad deal” mantra on its head. As a Brexiteer, he believes the former. The irony is May might not mind, if Tory MPs and the public don’t. A vague, bad deal a stumbling, exhausted PM carries over the line on 29 March might now be as good as she can get, with key questions about the future UK-EU relationship put off to another day.