Next up in our projection series is Shaun Marcum. The Mets acquired Marcum on an incentive-laden deal, to replace R.A. Dickey in the rotation. No one expects Marcum to come close to Dickey’s 20 Wins or 233.2 IP or his 2.73 ERA, which is a good thing since Marcum has never done any of those things and comes in as an injury risk. Here’s what we think Marcum will do in 2013:

Marcum Projection IP ERA Ks BB HR Gray 162 3.62 128 55 18 Hangley 172 3.73 117 43 16 Joura 115 4.35 89 38 13 Koehler 150 3.70 123 50 22 Manners 170 3.90 145 50 18 Mcwilliam 190 3.69 153 39 19 OMalley 156 3.63 129 45 20 Parker 175 3.60 130 50 17 Rogan 155 3.75 125 52 19 Rogers 180 3.60 120 50 20 Stack 175 3.68 133 47 18 Vasile 160 3.60 135 50 17 Walendin 128.1 3.43 102 40 15

Nearly everyone expects Marcum to bounce back towards his career ERA mark, rather than the 4.32 ERA he had when he returned from the DL last year. Since Marcum will be performing in a pitcher-friendly park for the first time in his career, there is some reason for optimism here, if he can stay healthy.

Here’s what the group thinks Marcum will do in 2013:

Marcum has outperformed his FIP each year he’s been in the majors. Our numbers above would have him posting a 3.98 FIP compared to a 3.68 ERA, continuing that trend.

We have now projected each of the Mets’ five starting pitchers. Collectively, we have them for 864.2 IP and a 3.63 ERA and we should be thrilled if they match these numbers in reality. The five SP with the most innings for the 2012 club notched 765.2 IP and recorded a 3.63 ERA. So, we’re expecting an additional 100 innings from the main five guys with no dropoff in quality, despite losing the player who gave the most IP and the best ERA.

Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of the projection systems available from FanGraphs:

Marcum Projection IP ERA Ks BB HR Bill James 196.0 3.63 161 58 25 Mets360 160.2 3.68 125 47 18 Oliver 169.0 3.47 139 47 14 Steamer 158 4.12 119 46 21 ZiPS 159.2 3.89 140 46 19

Our forecast fit in for the most part with the systematic approaches. Steamer is very negative on his ERA while the James projection is very optimistic on his strikeouts. Perhaps the most interesting thing is how close our forecast is to the ZiPS projection. As a whole, our predictions have been very “optimistic” while ZiPS has been “pessimistic” about Mets players. It took a guy who didn’t play in New York last year for us to see eye to eye.

Check back Saturday for our next entry in this series.

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