An increased cap is coming. It’s inevitable and the NBPA refused to work with the NBA owners to slow the rise – not that they had any reason to. But with the increased money comes the need to realign our expectations on salaries.

Some great sites already give this as an option, here’s looking at you spotrac, but viewing NBA salaries as a percentage of the cap is more important than ever right now. It’ll help to ease the transition from a good-to-great roleplayer making $5-$10 million in our minds to the same making $7.5-$13 million.

Right now we look at a good (not great) player making about $8,750,000 as fair; this is about 12.6% of a more stable cap era. Then what is Omer Asik doing signing a $12,000,000 per year contract that is taking up 17.9% of the cap? More illustrative, DeMarre Carroll, $15,000,000 per, and 22.4% of the cap. You can find all of the signings and their cap percentage for the next three years in the table at the end of this post.

When the salary cap jumps from $67.1 million to a whopping $89 million in just one season, you’ll see deals like Asik’s and Carroll’s fall to 13.5% and 16.9% of the cap respectively. Then in 2017-18 the cap is projected1 to jump all the way to $108 million and these percentages will fall to 11.9% and 13.9%.

These deals will be just that in two years, deals. Short of injury and complete ineffectiveness – always a possibility – none of the long-term deals signed this off-season should be terrible contracts by their end. There is just too much cap increase coming for these deals to be a bad idea.

Before the NBA free agency period began and players started getting max contract offers all around, we all thought that this would be the year of the short-term contract. How wrong we were. This taught us a few lessons. First, turning down $90 million when it is within your grasp is very hard. For the restricted free agents of the group, almost impossible. After all, with their max qualifying offer, the shortest deal they could take was three years and that’s just long enough to be a huge risk but not short enough to trust that you won’t get injured.

Second, the amount of potential earnings after a shorter term deal is huge, but if there is an Achilles tear or a knee injury that never fully fixes, then you’re not earning anything extra and might be losing out in the end. A few players are giving it a go: Greg Monroe has an opt out after two years, Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko took two-year deals, and everyone has a player option for the final year it seems.

Finally, players got higher annual averages than expected for more than just the rise in cap. Even under the impending cap jump, players like Tristan Thompson, Khris Middleton, and Carroll probably wouldn’t have gotten the contracts they did. But teams paid out higher annual averages than expected in order to lock players in for the full 4-5 years. They’re hurting their flexibility in 2015-16 in order to vastly help their flexibility in 2017-18. Even a max contract this year at close to 30% of the cap ($20-$22 million) will be just 18.5% of the cap in two years. That’s similar to signing a near-max level guy to a $12.5 million contract for the coming season. Damian Lillard’s no defense, $20 million per year contract may look iffy in 2015-162 but will be a good bargain if he keeps developing.

In the end, the players got high AAV and teams got high years. This could all come crashing down if there is a lockout or hard CBA negotiations after the 2016-17 season. Teams need to collect on those below value seasons where the cap has jumped to justify these signings.

Right now, it’s an intriguing, though fairly predictable future cap jump and ramifications. But that could all be thrown into turmoil by the biggest issue for those negotiations, the definition of “basketball-related income.” The cap could jump more if the players win those negotiations or it could drop some if the owners do. That’s an issue for another day. Right now, enjoy the updated table below.

EDIT 7/8/15 – This post was written before the cap for 2015-16 jumped up to $70 million. I may redo the math, but have not yet.

Player Average Annual Value 2015-16 Cap % ($67.1 mm) 2016-17 Cap % ($89 mm) 2017-18 Cap % ($108 mm) Anthony Davis $29,000,000 43.2% 32.6% 26.9% Kevin Love $22,000,000 32.8% 24.7% 20.4% DeAndre Jordan $20,250,000 30.2% 22.8% 18.8% LaMarcus Aldridge $20,250,000 30.2% 22.8% 18.8% Brook Lopez $20,000,000 29.8% 22.5% 18.5% Dwyane Wade $20,000,000 29.8% 22.5%* 18.5%* Damian Lillard $20,000,000 29.8% 22.5% 18.5% Paul Millsap $19,666,667 29.3% 22.1% 18.2% Jimmy Butler $18,000,000 26.8% 20.2% 16.7% Kawhi Leonard $18,000,000 26.8% 20.2% 16.7% Goran Dragic $18,000,000 26.8% 20.2% 16.7% Draymond Green $17,000,000 25.3% 19.1% 15.7% Greg Monroe $16,500,000 24.6% 18.5% 15.3% Tobias Harris $16,000,000 23.8% 18.0% 14.8% Tristan Thompson $16,000,000 23.8% 18.0% 14.8% DeMarre Carroll $15,000,000 22.4% 16.9% 13.9% Khris Middleton $14,000,000 20.9% 15.7% 13.0% Brandon Knight $14,000,000 20.9% 15.7% 13.0% Robin Lopez $13,500,000 20.1% 15.2% 12.5% Wesley Matthews $13,000,000 19.4% 14.6% 12.0% Tyson Chandler $13,000,000 19.4% 14.6% 12.0% Thaddeus Young $12,500,000 18.6% 14.0% 11.6% Omer Asik $12,000,000 17.9% 13.5% 11.1% Amir Johnson $12,000,000 17.9% 13.5% 11.1%* Danny Green $11,250,000 16.8% 12.6% 10.4% Monta Ellis $11,000,000 16.4% 12.4% 10.2% Rajon Rondo $10,000,000 14.9% 11.2%* 9.3%* Iman Shumpert $10,000,000 14.9% 11.2% 9.3% Corey Brewer $8,000,000 11.9% 9.0% 7.4% Arron Afflalo $8,000,000 11.9% 9.0% 7.4% Al-Farouq Aminu $7,500,000 11.2% 8.4% 6.9% Jae Crowder $7,000,000 10.4% 7.9% 6.5% Ed Davis $6,666,667 9.9% 7.5% 6.2% Aron Baynes $6,666,667 9.9% 7.5% 6.2% Marco Belinelli $6,333,334 9.4% 7.1% 5.9% Patrick Beverley $6,250,000 9.3% 7.0% 5.8% Brandan Wright $5,709,880 8.5% 6.4% 5.3% Alexis Ajinca $5,050,000 7.5% 5.7% 4.7% Kyle Singler $5,000,000 7.5% 5.6% 4.6% Jonas Jerebko $5,000,000 7.5% 5.6% 4.6%* Derrick Williams $5,000,000 7.5% 5.6% 4.6%* C.J. Watson $5,000,000 7.5% 5.6% 4.6% Mike Dunleavy $4,800,000 7.2% 5.4% 4.4% LaVoy Allen $4,000,000 6.0% 4.5% 3.7% Paul Pierce $3,527,920 5.3% 4.0% 3.3%

*Indicates that player’s contract doesn’t enter that season