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This week, the leaders of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador are gathering in Miami with Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for a “Conference on Prosperity and Security in Central America.” The conference, co-hosted by the United States and Mexico, seeks to revamp strategies to stem the tide of mass migration from Central America’s Northern Triangle nations by addressing the root causes of poverty and insecurity. The meeting comes amid fraught circumstances. Trump’s proposed 2018 budget threatens to slash US development aid to the Northern Triangle while doubling down on security and pro-investment policies that have already wrought significant damages in the region. In a Spanish-language statement signed by over fifty civil society organizations and coalitions from across Mexico, Central America, and the United States last month, groups warn that “everything suggests that the central point of this Conference is to make substantial modifications to the Alliance for Prosperity Plan for the Central American Northern Triangle, reformulating it to promote greater private investment from the United States, intensify official arms and military equipment trade and extend the Southern Command Task Forces into Guatemala and venturing into Mexico.” The meeting is the first of its kind to be held during the Trump presidency, and it appears to portend a shift from bad to worse for US policy in Central America.

A Hardened Policy Under Trump Under Obama, Central American governments were incentivized to accept US economic and security strategies with the promise of hundreds of millions of dollars in development aid. In reality, they appear to have little choice. The outsized economic and political influence that the United States exerts leaves little room for maneuver from the impoverished Northern Triangle nations. The Trump administration, however, prefers the stick to the carrot. Under the leadership of Department of Homeland Security Secretary and former US Southern Command Chief John Kelly, the administration has proposed major cuts to foreign aid and refugee assistance and is leaning on Mexico to do more of the United States’ dirty work of detaining, screening, and deporting Central Americans, as well as to further militarize its southern border with Guatemala and train Central American security forces. Under Trump, the State Department has taken a back seat to the Department of Homeland Security — which is subject to much less oversight or public scrutiny — in shaping US-Central America policy. Kelly’s leadership, along with the FY2018 budget request’s preference for defense over diplomacy, suggests a troubling escalation of the militarization of US foreign policy, one that will only make Central American families forced to undertake the perilous journey northward more vulnerable. Trump’s 2018 budget proposes a massive reduction in aid worldwide, with Central America’s economic assistance down 39 percent from its peak in 2016. The proposal slashes the US Agency for International Development’s (USAID) budget by 75 percent and eliminates US funding for the IDB. Refugee services would be cut by 31 percent, and the Emergency Refugee and Migration Assistance Fund, designed to help respond to unanticipated crises, would get nothing at all. Aid to Mexico would be cut in half. At the same time, the administration wants to raise defense spending by 10 percent and build seventy-four miles of border wall at USD$21 million per mile. The Trump administration isn’t offering the Northern Triangle much, but it’s threatening plenty. Two weeks before the Miami conference, Kelly suggested he may move to end the Temporary Protected Status that shields 263,000 Salvadorans and 86,000 Hondurans in the United States from deportation. Mexico, in turn, hopes to score points with the United States in exchange for a favorable outcome to the threatened renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In lieu of development aid, the Trump administration is doubling down on the Alliance for Prosperity’s emphasis on attracting private foreign investment to Central America. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s remarks described the Miami conference as an event to discuss “how we can bring more private capital into investment opportunities in Central and Latin America.” A day before the official activities, the IDB and the US Chamber of Commerce is bringing together corporations including Monsanto, Coca Cola, and Walmart to discuss investment opportunities. Day one of the conference is being organized by the State Department and held at Florida International University; activities will be similarly dedicated to further opening up the Northern Triangle’s resources and workforce to foreign corporations. June 16 is devoted to security and will be held at the US Southern Command headquarters. Secretary Tillerson will only participate in June 15’s events, leaving the rest of the conference to Secretary Kelly. In addition to the multinational private sector actors invited to attend, representatives from the European Union, Canada, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and other nations will participate in the conference. Civil society groups representing the workers, migrants, and communities most impacted by these policy proposals, however, are notably absent.