UPDATE: How much snow will fall this week?

Weather forecasters say northern New Jersey, New York City and Long Island could get as much as 4 to 6 inches of snow from a storm system that's expected to move quickly through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon.

Based on the projected timing of the storm, it could impact the Thursday morning commute.

"There's a potential for snow to come down here at a fairly high clip," said Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in Mount Holly. "If the rates do pick up Thursday morning, we could have some slick spots or some covering of snow" on roads across the region.

With the storm system still more than two days away from arriving in our region, the snowfall projections can certainly change between now and then, Gaines noted. But as of now, the weather service is forecasting 1 to 2 inches of snow in South Jersey, 2 to 4 inches in much of Central Jersey and 3 to 4 inches in most of North Jersey, with some pockets of 4 to 6 inches.

The weather service's New York regional office is projecting 4 to 6 inches of snow for New York City, Long Island and most of Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties, and 3 to 5 inches in Essex and Union counties.

Early snowfall projections for most of New Jersey from Wednesday night through Thursday, Feb. 9. Projections for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic and Union counties are included in the map below. (National Weather Service)

Just like Gaines, forecasters in the New York office agree the snowfall projections could be revised -- downward or up -- as Thursday gets closer.

"There's a lot of variability," said Jay Engle, a meteorologist at the weather service's New York office. "We're getting a wide spread on the (snowfall) range from the various computer guidance models."

"It really could be anywhere from a little (snow) to a 9- to 10-inch worst-case scenario," Engle said Monday afternoon. At the very least, it's shaping up to be "a shovable snow."

The timing of the storm is a key factor in determining how much snow will fall, because New Jersey and New York will be enveloped in near-record warmth on Wednesday as the storm system approaches from the Ohio Valley.

Engle and Gaines said if the storm arrives early Wednesday evening, when the warm air is still expected to be in place, the precipitation would start as rain or a wintry mix, cutting down on snowfall totals. If the storm arrives later Wednesday night or after midnight, when a surge of cold air will be flowing down from Canada, more snow will likely fall.

Early snowfall projections for Wednesday night through Thursday night in northeastern sections of New Jersey, as well as New York City, Long Island and Connecticut. (National Weather Service)

Freezing rain advisory

A different storm system will be moving into New Jersey overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, bringing rain to most of the region but pockets of freezing rain to parts of Passaic, Sussex and Warren counties.

A freezing rain advisory is in effect for Sussex and Warren from 1 a.m. to 10 a.m. Tuesday, and for western Passaic from 3 a.m. to 1 p.m. Tuesday.

"Icing may create slippery conditions on roads, bridges, and sidewalks, affecting the Tuesday morning commute," the weather service said in a briefing package Monday afternoon.

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.