The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense performed dismally in 2017. Many pundits are calling for the coaching heads as the reason for the pathetic performance last season. Is that truly the case?

Football Outsider Metrics: Defensive Rankings for the Bucs in 2017

Overall: 32nd

Pass defense: 31st

Rush defense: 19th

Strength of Schedule (SoS): 12th

Defensive line, Run Stopping: 20th (Overall production)

(Overall production) Defensive line, Pass Rushing: 32nd (Sack rate)

Pro-Football-Reference Defensive Metrics: 2017 Bucs

Yards allowed: 6049 yards (32nd)

Passing yards allowed: 4169 yards (32nd)

Rushing yards allowed: 1880 yards (23rd)

Points allowed: 23.9 points (22nd)

An overview of the production is quite unforgiveable. With the addition of DT Chris Baker and Super Bowl champion SS TJ Ward along with 2017 draftees S Justin Evans and LB Kendall Beckwith, how did the Bucs defense fail? Does this all fall onto the coaching staff?

Fortunately, the coaching staff for 2017 was here for 2016. What did that coaching staff and personnel grouping do in 2016?

Football Outsider Metrics: Defensive Rankings for the Bucs in 2016

Overall: 13th

Pass defense: 6th

Rush defense: 26th

Strength of Schedule (SoS): 7th

Defensive line, Run Stopping: 26th (Overall production)

(Overall production) Defensive line, Pass Rushing: 6th (Sack rate)

Pro-Football-Reference Defensive Metrics: 2016 Bucs

Yards allowed: 5881 yards (23rd)

Passing yards allowed: 4012 yards (22nd)

Rushing yards allowed: 1626 yards (22nd)

Points allowed: 23.1 points (16th)

In 2016, with the same coaching staff and relatively the same defensive personnel, the defense performed much better. In fact, it was the top rated third-down defensive rated grouping in all of the NFL in 2016. Also, it had a far stronger SoS than the 2017 defense faced.

If the coaching was the same between the two seasons and the defense gained a few more talents, then what happened? Injuries and inserting new personnel happened.

MLB Kwon Alexander, WLB Lavonte David, CB Brent Grimes, FS Bradley McDougald, and DE Noah Spence all played 16 games in 2016. In 2017, Alexander missed four games, David missed three games, Grimes missed three games, and Spence missed 10 games. Alexander took longer to recover from his injury despite returning early from his injury, as he played through his injury.

Without Spence available, that left DE Robert Ayers as the only edge with speed on the field in 2017. In 2018 OTA reporting, we discovered that DE William Gholston has lost 10 – 15 pounds since the 2017 season ended. That extra weight slowed down Gholston and his usual production pre-2017 was nowhere to be seen in 2017. Having no other true pass rushing options left, the lack of talent edge depth was exposed.

In the secondary, the team could not figure out its safety situation with the addition of FA Ward and rookie Evans. Ward was abysmal in coverage and the coaches forgot about Keith Tandy while trying to get some experience for rookie Evans. The only constant was Chris Conte throughout the whole year, finished third on the team in total tackles and solo tackles. Eventually, rookie Evans slowly evolved into a FS starting position.

At the cornerback position, Vernon Hargreaves was the most picked on CB in 2016 as he gave up the most yards and not many teams wanted to test Brent Grimes, who had four INTs and one forced fumble that season. Instead of improving, Vernon lost his starting outside position to second year DB Ryan Smith, re-converting back to corner back position for 2017 from safety in 2016.

Although DT Baker was released at the 2017 season, he did help the Bucs run defense improve and had comparable production to that Atlanta’s DT Dontari Poe, at a cheaper price. Baker’s production still did not meet expectation.

Conclusion

If the scope of the defensive production lay only in 2017, then one can point towards the coaching staff. That thought would bleed into a query as to why where were not more of a change in the defensive coaching positions with such an abhorrent showing.

If the scope of the defensive production lay within the past two seasons, 2016 and 2017, then we can have a far better understanding on what happened last year. Although the defense ranked last or next to last in several metrics, two metrics stand out in favor of the coaching staff:

2016

Strength of Schedule (SoS): 7th

Points allowed: 23.1 points (16th)

2017

Strength of Schedule (SoS): 12th

Points allowed: 23.9 points (22nd)

The defense allowed 0.8 points per game extra in 2017 despite all the bottom rankings. With all the injuries and personnel juggling in 2017, the defense played bend-but-don’t-break often. It held six teams to 20 points or less in regulation in 2017. The team only won three out of those six opportunities. In 2016, the defense held seven teams to 20 points or less, but the team won all seven opportunities.

It may be difficult to fathom that the defensive coaches were trying to make lemonade out of lemons in 2017, but that is exactly what they were doing. DC Mike Smith pulled out a 3-3-5 scheme because the defensive line had very little pass rush. The defense bent a lot, but the scoring average reflects the defense did not break.

Like a good GM, Jason Licht acknowledged the lack of depth and talent on the defensive side after 2017. He grabbed five new defensive linemen (four of them top run stuffers and the other a proven pass rush specialist), two new cornerbacks, and a safety via free agency or the draft. Gholston will not be a starter. Spence will only be used in pass rushing situations, not run downs, which exposes his shoulder to unnecessary punishment to the lightest defensive lineman projected to make the 53-man roster. There are fail safes at corner should Hargreaves continues to falter or an injury occurs to the other starting corner as the Bucs are now three deep at outside corner if Hargreaves and Grimes are starters. Finally, at safety, they drafted a prospect to become a super sub as the team has settled on Justin Evans being the starting FS and Chris Conte the starting SS.

2016 proved what good coaching existed on the defensive side. Too many pundits and fans often omit the 2016 season occurred, but Licht did not. He did make one change at coaching, the defensive line coach. The run defense was still piss poor after two seasons, ranking 26th in 2016 and 19th in 2017. He opted for a run defense guru in Brenston Bucker, formerly Arizona Cardinal’s defensive line coach. Aside from that, Licht believes in his coaches and provided them with more talent. Injuries are a part of the game, so mitigate a drop in play, Licht made sure to give the defense an overabundance of talent, especially at the trenches. A very good pass rush can mask a weak secondary. A very good run defense can force opposing teams into more third downs or third down-and-long situations. Combine both and there exists a synergy waiting to be tapped seen in two games in 2016, where the defense did not allow a touchdown scored in either game. In both those games, the offense did allow a safety.

Want to know more about those two 2016 games, then read it here: Bucs Going Back to the Future

Can’t win ‘em all.

Recall the 2016 - 2017 off-season. The most important acquisition in the off-season was retaining DC Mike Smith. Despite all the failings of 2017, his defense only allowed an additional 0.8 points per game allowed more than 2016's defense. Sometimes, we fans miss the forest.





