The prosecution said it seized equipment from alleged terrorists. Photo: Montenegrin Prosecution.

A report by the US Foreign Policy Research Institute, released on Tuesday, said the alleged coup attempt in Montenegro was more serious than many people had realised – and that Russia was stoking political and ethnic divisions in the country in 2016 to stop its further Western integration.

The report, “Hanging by a Thread, Russia’s Strategy of Destabilization in Montenegro,” said the Kremlin’s best-case scenario – referring to the alleged coup attempt in October 2016 – was a pro-Russian government taking power and reversing Montenegro’s Euro-Atlantic course.

“To this end, Russia coordinated with local opposition and Serb ethnic-nationalists in an unsuccessful attempt to topple the democratically elected government of Montenegro,” the report said.

The report, citing testimonies and physical evidence reviewed by researchers, contained new details about attempts to topple Montenegro’s government on the eve of parliamentary elections in 2016, claiming that Russia was so serious in its intentions that it decided to deploy “hard power” to achieve its political objectives in the Balkan state.

“Russia’s willingness to deploy clandestine operations in Montenegro underlines the severity of the threat, demonstrating the lengths Moscow will go in securing its regional interests,” the report reads.

The authors of the report are Reuf Bajrovic, a former Bosnian Energy Minister, Vesko Garcevic, a professor of at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University and Richard Kraemer, a Fellow of FPRI’s Eurasia Program and formerly senior program officer for Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey at the National Endowment for Democracy.

A total of 14 Russian, Serbian and Montenegrin citizens are accused of plotting a coup in Montenegro on October 16, 2016 to overthrow the country’s pro-Western government.

Their alleged aim was to assassinate then Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, bring the pro-Russian opposition parties to power and halt the drive to join NATO, which the small Adriatic country joined in June 2017.

Opposition parties and some anti-government media in Montenegro have continued to dismiss the coup allegations as unfounded.

They say the whole affair was staged by the authorities to ensure Djukanovic won another election and besmirch the opposition. Russia has also denied involvement in the alleged plot.

However, Moscow supports the main opposition Democratic Front and other opposition groups that oppose NATO expansion and champion closer ties to the Kremlin.

According to the report, around 50 Russian military intelligence officials entered Montenegro illegally from Serbia on the night before the coup, allegedly to provide the plotters with assistance.

“The event marks the first time Russia attempted to use violence outside of the former Soviet Union to achieve its political aims,” the report says.

It warned that the democratic civil society groups in Montenegro finds themselves in a difficult place, caught between the Kremlin-tied opposition and a monolithic government.

Despite his Euro-Atlantic orientation and ethnically pluralistic credentials, the country’s veteran leader, Milo Djukanovic, and his ruling Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, have dominated the country’s political space for decades, leaving little space for the emergence of alternatives.

“After decades of alternating between the post of president and prime minister, Djukanovic would be well advised to gracefully exit from Montenegrin politics at his term’s end in 2023; whether he will do so remains an open question,” the report said.

Meanwhile, it said, the Democratic Front’s pro-Russian platform is a non-starter for democrats seeking more liberal alternatives. Opposite Djukanovic is a “Russophile, ethnic-nationalist opposition”, it said.

The report also warned that despite the coup’s failure, the future of Montenegro’s progress toward Western integration remains uncertain.

The institutional actors behind the failed coup attempt remain largely in place and steadfastly opposed to NATO membership, it noted.

“Should they come to power, they likely would withdraw Montenegro from the Alliance, retract its recognition of Kosovo, and potentially reunite with Serbia. Thus, to prevent the reversal of Montenegro’s Western trajectory, the US and its NATO allies immediately must work to deepen their engagement with the country,” the report reads.

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