Donald Trump has become a villain in climate change drama. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, the US president played his role perfectly, branding climate advocates as “fatal prophets” while teenage activist Greta Thunberg watched from the audience.

However, if you look at the numbers – unlike the theater – it becomes clear that the battle for climate change control now depends a lot more on what is happening in China than in America. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, China is now responsible for generating 29% of global carbon dioxide emissions, compared to 16% for the US, about 10% for the EU and 7%for India. Even on a per capita basis, the Chinese are now emitting more greenhouse gases than Europeans.

As the Trump administration likes to point out, greenhouse gas emissions from America actually declined last year, though by only 2.1%. This is largely due to the fact that US coal production has fallen sharply and is now at 1975 levels. China, by contrast, continues to open new coal-fired power plants.

However, the climate skepticism of the Trump administration matters. The United States was the leader in building most of the major international institutions and agreements that shaped the current world order. If they give up on global efforts to combat climate change, others will have to secure leadership to reach an international deal.

China’s addiction to coal and its authoritarian system, however, means that it will be difficult for the Communist country to take on global leadership on climate issues. Europeans are committed to the subject, but they probably lack the organization and international influence to take responsibility. Discussion in the EU of imposing a ‘cross-border carbon tax’ – essentially taxing imports from highly polluting countries – can also lead to sharp trade disputes, which will further complicate the reaching of an international agreement.

Someone will need to secure leadership quickly because next year will be decisive for international climate efforts. In November, the United Kingdom will host COP26, the latest UN climate change summit. This will be a particularly important meeting as the participating countries are expected to acknowledge that the promises they made under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are insufficient to meet the goal of limiting global warming. At the Glasgow Summit in November, they must commit to more ambitious and detailed greenhouse gas reduction targets.

COP26 will start just six days after the US presidential election. If Trump is re-elected, it will confirm that the US has essentially given up on global efforts to combat climate change. On November 4, the day after the election, the United States must formally withdraw from the Paris Agreement. This, in turn, will intensify the pressure on the EU, China, India, and the United Kingdom (as hosts) to sustain vital efforts to combat climate change through coordinated global action.