(CNN) House Republicans' decision to schedule a Thursday vote on a bill that reforms and replaces the Affordable Care Act suggests they are now willing to roll the dice even though the final outcome is far from certain.

Tonight's decision comes after the party has spent weeks tweaking the bill to attract wavering members. Combine the risk involved with the level of public sausage-making and a simple question arises: Why?

After all, it's clear that threading the needle between the House Freedom Caucus on the ideological right and the Tuesday Group in the center is a perilous proposition. Republicans have already swung and missed twice. Even with the current momentum behind Michigan Rep. Fred Upton's amendment to fund state-based high-risk pools as a fix for the decision to waive the federal mandate on covering people with pre-existing conditions, it's going to be a very, very close vote -- if there is a vote at all.

So, again, why? Especially since the bill may never go anywhere in the Senate or be amended beyond belief. Those two possibilities make Democrats convinced that the worst thing House Republicans can do is vote on this health care bill. (Democrats believe a vote is the best thing for their own political fortunes.) They liken it to their own disastrous decision in 2009 to vote on a cap and trade bill that quickly died in the Senate and was subsequently used against Democratic members in swing districts to cast them as extreme liberals beholden to the national party, not their constituents.

I've talked to a handful of Republican members and senior campaign staffers about just that question. While they recognize voting on a bill with an uncertain legislative future is a risk, they think the bigger risk is not passing anything at all. There are two main reasons behind that thinking:

Read More