Last season, Arsène Wenger asked people to judge him in May. This time, judgement might come as early as September

Guardian writers' prediction: 5th (NB: this is not necessarily Amy Lawrence's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)

Last season's position: 4th

Odds to win the league: 9-1

First the good news. Jack Wilshere seems perfectly happy to play for Arsenal. Thomas Vermaelen looks ready to resume a promising career for the club after a season blanked out by injury. Gervinho might prove to be another classic Arsène Wenger bargain, an athletic and pacy ball player raring to step up a level, spirited over from France for a fee that doesn't make a certain manager with a well-documented devotion to cautious housekeeping choke as if he was asked to fix the Greek economy before breakfast.

Unfortunately at this point the scales lurch with a foreboding clang towards the less good news, the downright depressing news and the bewildering lack of news in critical areas that have made this the most pessimistic close season for Arsenal in decades.

For some years now summertime has merely represented a mix of dread about the best players being picked off, together with frustration that the handful of ambitious signings required to turn potential into the real deal never came. But few really expected, or even asked for, a radical overhaul.

Until now.

This summer was always going to feel different. For a start, patience wore down to breaking point as the 2010-11 campaign imploded in a way that was as miserable as it was predictable. Why are the lessons never learned? Arsenal were mauled like a pretty animal in a David Attenborough documentary that ends up as dinner to even the rangiest of scavengers. To make matters worse their fate was largely self-inflicted as they made traps for themselves to fall into (witness the fiasco against Birmingham City in the Carling Cup final).

So much goodwill in the bank from Wenger's past successes has been raided. Also, for the first time, it became obvious that some players had lost belief in the manager's philosophy. The atmosphere in the dressing room became increasingly bitter during a run of two wins from their last 12 league matches post-Carling Cup final. They knew, with even more clarity than any fan or pundit, that this youth project, for all its valiant idealism, has profound failings.

The other fundamental difference about this summer is the new scene at board level, with Stan Kroenke's takeover and Alisher Usmanov's increased shareholding suggesting that something somewhere would be adjusted in terms of the club's direction. But so far, the only thing to be altered is ticket prices, hiked with timing perfect in its clunkiness.

Even though there was never much chance of Wenger departing, this summer required major surgery in all departments to lift the mood. Experienced players are a necessity. Dead wood needs binning. A change in both the coaching staff and ideals can refresh an approach that is too feeble, too flawed, to last the distance (Patrick Vieira and Dennis Bergkamp's new roles elsewhere look like an opportunity missed, and while the competition are signing up the likes of Steve Clarke and Roberto Di Matteo as assistants, Pat Rice was talked out of retirement to prolong the status quo).

Wenger doesn't want to practice defending? Fine, so long as you bring someone in who will. The squad players not up to the task when the going gets tough? Fine, so bid au revoir to Manuel Almunia, Emmanuel Eboué, Sébastien Squillaci, Carlos Vela etc.

Some have departed, and others have flashing "for sale" signs attached, but Arsenal have not yet been as aggressive and decisive in the market as suggested by the promise from Wenger that they would be "very active". There is still a lot to do, with, astonishingly, the defence barely touched thus far. Where is the new robust centre-half, the experienced left-back to replace Gaël Clichy, the alternative to Alex Song in defensive midfield and the goalkeeper to prevent any more sightings of Almunia if injury strikes again?

The lack of arrivals is presumably linked to the demoralising sagas concerning the futures of Cesc Fábregas and Samir Nasri. But a "very active" window was needed regardless. Waiting for last-day bargains, as Arsenal tend to do, doesn't seem like a brilliant idea. Could be a bit late by then.

August brings meetings with Liverpool and Manchester United, plus a crucial Champions League play-off and a trip which is bound to remind them of all their worst foibles, to Newcastle United, where last term the good, the bad and the hideous of Arsenal morphed into one extraordinary game.

Arsenal remain in an elite group who have qualified for the Champions League for 14 successive seasons, and they have managed it with the "sustainable business model" that operates at a fraction of the outlay of their competitors. It is admirable. But with the big four now potentially a big six, it may not be workable for much longer.

Without a shaken-up squad, the only other source for change is at the training ground if the will and wherewithal is there. Andrey Arshavin has suggested they have been working on set pieces and a more intense pressing game during pre-season. Notably Arsenal's most impressive performances of last season, wins against Chelsea, Manchester United and Barcelona, showed how energetic pressing, rather than languid passing, reaps rewards. Equally notably, that approach didn't transmit to less interesting challenges. It remains to be seen whether Wenger can inspire enough of a change, whether a few alterations here and there is enough.

Last season Wenger asked people to judge him in May. This time, judgement might come as early as September.