TORONTO -- New modelling data suggests Toronto is at its peak period for COVID-19 cases and that the city has started to successfully flattened the curve.

"We haven’t seen the dramatic surges in hospitalizations that we originally feared," Dr. Eileen de Villa said on Monday. "In fact, the number of new hospitalizations each day has started to decrease."

"We are seeing our curve flattening because you are washing your hands, you are staying home and you are keeping a safe distance from your friends, families and other loved ones, as difficult as I know this is."

De Villa stressed that the only way to stay on a positive trajectory is to keep current physical distancing measures in place.

There are currently 3,362 cases of COVID-19 in Toronto. More than 260 are being treated in hospital, with 99 of those in intensive care.

As of Monday, 181 people have died from the virus in the city. De Villa said the majority of deaths in the city are driven largely by patients in long-term care homes.

"We've come a long way," Mayor John Tory added. "We're in a better position to win this war."

"We will win as long as we stay the course."

The new modelling from the city comes as the province said cases of COVID-19 in Ontario appear to have peaked.

While the modelling data released Monday does not indicate how many people could die as a result of COVID-19, it does shed light on the number of cases that could be reported in the province.

Health officials say that the total number of cumulative cases for the span of the outbreak is now likely less than 20,000, a far cry from the 300,000 possible cases the province had projected it would see by the end of the month in a worst-case scenario.

The previous modelling data had predicted a peak in cases in May, but officials say that thanks to public health measures, including physical distancing and self-isolating, the peak has been accelerated to today.