A new economic analysis from the Congressional Budget Office paints a grim picture of what's in store for the domestic economy this year and next – throwing cold water on the notion that the U.S. will quickly recover from its coronavirus-fueled recession.

In a series of projections published on Friday, the CBO estimates the national unemployment rate will hit 14% in the second quarter of the year and 16% in the third quarter. Unemployment will average 11.4% this year, and by the end of 2021, the CBO thinks the rate will still sit at 9.5% – nearly three times pre-coronavirus outbreak levels.

Coronavirus in NYC Causes Uncertainty View All 22 Images

During the depths of the Great Recession, unemployment peaked at 10% and was only that high for one month. The average unemployment rate this year and next is expected to exceed that level.

"The increase in that rate in the second and third quarters reflects the net effect of a projected loss of nearly 27 million in the number of people employed and the exit of roughly 8 million people from the labor force," according to the report.

That assessment stands in stark contrast to the rosier picture painted by President Donald Trump and members of his administration, who are still holding out hope that an economic reopening will return the country to its former glory.

Already, more than 26 million Americans have filed for unemployment in just a five-week span. State unemployment offices have been inundated with calls as layoffs and furloughs abound. Millions who have managed to retain their jobs have seen pay slashed, as the economy grinds to a halt and nonessential businesses throughout much of the country remain shuttered.

The U.S. economy is expected to contract 0.9% in the first quarter and 11.8% in the second quarter. On an annual basis, the country's economy is expected to contract nearly 40% in April, May and June. U.S. gross domestic product is expected to contract 5.6% this year and grow only 2.8% next year. The size of the U.S. economy will still not be fully recovered by the end of next year from where it sat during the first quarter of 2020.

The CBO's report warns that "challenges in the economy and the labor market are expected to persist for some time" and that millions of Americans will simply give up on trying to land a job. Labor force participation is expected to plummet to 59.8%, the lowest that rate has been since the late 1960s.

Philip Swagel, the director of the CBO, highlights the "enormous uncertainty" of how the pandemic will unfold and how it will continue to weigh on economic activity. But his office's calculations assume social distancing measures will continue throughout much of the country through June. The CBO also assumes social distancing measures will remain in place in some capacity – though they'll be reduced by an average of 75% from what the country is experiencing now – through the first half of 2021.

The four pandemic-related economic stimulus efforts that have passed through Capitol Hill in recent weeks are expected to cause the national deficit to balloon to $3.7 trillion this year, according to the CBO. The deficit is also expected to hit $2.1 trillion next year.