Top story: Virus could force GCSEs and A-levels to be delayed

Morning everyone. I’m Martin Farrer and these are the top stories from the Guardian this Monday morning.

The coronavirus outbreak could last for another year and cause almost eight million people to require hospital treatment, according to a Public Health England document seen by the Guardian. In what was previously a worst-case scenario mooted by chief medical officer Prof Chris Witty, the document says up to 80% of the population “are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation”. The shocking possible extent of the crisis comes as Boris Johnson sought to shore up confidence in his handling of the situation by announcing that he will hold a daily media conference for “as long as necessary”. Deaths in the UK stand at 35 and family have paid tribute to the man believed to be the youngest victim so far, a 59-year-old former police officer, Nick Matthews. There is concern that the virus could force this year’s GCSEs and A-level exams to be postponed until later in the year and unions have warned about lack of sick pay for laid-off courier workers. . More news all day at our live blog.

There are now more cases of coronavirus around the world than inside China, the epicentre of the outbreak. Worldwide infections have grown to more than 86,000, according to the Johns Hopkins university tracker, while cases inside China stood at 80,860 as of Monday. Deaths have reached 6,479.

There’s also more in our Coronavirus Extra section further down … and here’s where you can find all our coverage of the outbreak – from breaking news to fact checks and advice

Working women – For the first time, there are now more women aged 60-64 in work than not, analysis of data from the Office for National Statistics shows. The shift has been triggered by changes to the state pension age, the data reveals, with the number of older women in the workforce increasing by 51% since the reforms were introduced in 2010. The number of working men aged between 60 and 64 increased by 13% over the same period. Experts described the shift as “seismic” and said it would have profound implications for women now and in later life.

Biden v Bernie – They kept their distance and bumped elbows, but Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders still managed to come together to condemn Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis in the first one-on-one debate in the slimmed-down Democratic presidential nomination debate. Biden said it called for wartime-style national mobilisation and he would summon the army while his rival took the opportunity to tout his plan for sweeping healthcare reforms. Biden also pledged to choose a woman as his running mate.

This video has been removed. This could be because it launched early, our rights have expired, there was a legal issue, or for another reason. Biden and Sanders bump elbows in 'hands-off' Democratic debate – video

‘Ghost trains’ – Thousands of trains are sitting idle in depots across Britain despite the country’s creaking rail network being in desperate need of additional rolling stock. An investigation by Channel 4’s Dispatches has found that many of the carriages, which contain around 110,000 seats, could be used immediately. Research also reveals the inequality between services in the north and south of England, with experts calling for more widespread electrification to fix the problem.

Scrolls downer – They were always suspected of being one of the most elaborate hoaxes in history but now it’s official: the fragments of the Dead Sea Scrolls for which an American museum paid millions of dollars are fakes, experts have said. Steve Green reportedly paid millions for the “scrolls” for his Museum of the Bible in Washington DC. But a team of researchers have concluded after exhaustive testing that they are probably fakes made of old shoe leather.

Coronavirus Extra

The story continued to move quickly overnight. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control urged people to avoid gatherings of more than 50 people as the death toll rose to 64 and California’s governor asked bars to shut down. New York City ordered all its public schools to close. Argentina has gone into full lockdown and South Africa has declared a national emergency. In Washington, however, Donald Trump gave a brief press conference in which he insisted the US was “doing great” in fighting the outbreak, and heaped praise on the US Federal Reserve after it announced it was slashing interest rates to near zero.

Play Video 1:05 WHO director general: Europe is now at centre of coronavirus pandemic – video

But even that emergency cut has failed to calm nerves on financial markets with another turbulent day in prospect on global stock markets. The Sydney market dropped almost 10% on Monday despite Australia’s central bank announcing it is on the brink of quantitative easing. The FTSE100 is on course to lose 2.5% at the opening bell this morning.

There was anger in Germany after it was reported that Trump had offered $1bn to a German pharmaceutical company in exchange for exclusive US access to a Covid-19 vaccine it is developing.

Today in Focus podcast

Like a growing number of people, Simon Parkin suffered from insomnia for years. After dozens of failed techniques, he finally found one that worked. Also today: Sally Hayden on a locust swarm in east Africa.

Today in Focus A cure for insomnia? Sorry your browser does not support audio - but you can download here and listen https://audio.guim.co.uk/2020/03/15-81685-200316TIFinsomnia2.mp3 00:00:00 00:23:34

Lunchtime read: why Mike Skinner is back on the Streets

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Mike Skinner, who shot to fame with his rap band the Streets before stepping back from the limelight, is back with a film he’s been planning for “donkey’s years” about the group. He promises it will have a Streets soundtrack and a Raymond Chandler influence – “a DJ as a sort of cynical or disillusioned private detective”. In between untangling his varied career, Skinner also tells Tim Jonze about how he tries to avoid on-the-road hedonism, the Cambrian explosion and Robert De Niro’s eyeballs.

Sport

The International Olympic Committee must act decisively by postponing the Tokyo 2020 Games because of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, a British athlete has told the Guardian. Premiership rugby union fixtures are to be postponed with immediate effect because of the coronavirus outbreak with European competitions set to be mothballed as well. British racing is likely to go behind closed doors from later this week, initially until the end of March but potentially for much longer. Super League newcomers Toronto Wolfpack have suspended training and stood down their entire UK-based staff after four players experienced symptoms of coronavirus. Castleford recorded a 28-14 win against St Helens but some fans were critical of the decision to play at all. And the UK Anti-Doping Agency is poised to launch an investigation into allegations that a member of Tyson Fury’s team offered a farmer £25,000 to provide a false alibi after the heavyweight champion failed a drugs test in 2015.

Business

The coronavirus continues to take a wrecking ball to the business world. One of the worst-hit areas is the cruise passenger sector and we look at what it means for the industry as the biggest operators mothball their fleets and share values plummet. In Britain, manufacturers have urged the government to step in to help the sector after exports have plummeted. The pound has also dropped sharply and is buying $1.234 and €1.11.

The papers

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Many of the papers focus on plans to quarantine the elderly to protect them from the coronavirus. The Mirror says “Save our elderly” and the Mail has “Let’s pull together for our elderly, Britain!”. The Telegraph warns about the sanctions for defying anti-virus measures – “£1,000 fine or custody for refusing quarantine” – while the Sun headline is “Flu Monday”. The Guardian leads with “Virus ‘may last a year and put 8m in NHS hospitals”, a line which the Express also leads with: “Virus will put 8m Britons in hospital”. The Times concentrates on the economics of it all – “Banks act to save world economy from pandemic”.

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