MUMBAI: If the recent Lok Sabha elections are any indicator, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine can expect to take its seat tally way higher in the state elections due within October while the Congress-NCP alliance could see its small 2014 kitty of seats halved.Each of the 48 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state have six assembly seats (total 288), and going by Election Commission statistics, BJP was leading in 124 seats and Sena in 105 assembly segments. Though electorates tend to vote differently in general and state elections, the 229 segments the saffron twins were ahead in ties in with CM Fadnavis’ claim (see interview) that BJP-Sena could win over 220 seats in 2019. Last time, BJP and Sena contested separately and won 185 seats before coming together to form the government (see box).In the Lok Sabha elections, Congress led in 19 assembly segments and NCP was ahead in 21, which means it could translate into far fewer seats in the state polls than the 83 the duo has in the present House. More worryingly, Congress was leading in only 9 of the 42 assembly segments it holds now, while NCP was ahead in 12 of its 41seats.Analysts said a Sena-BJP pact will be crucial in delivering a thumping result. While announcing the Sena-BJP alliance for LS, CM Devendra Fadnavis had said assembly seat- and power-sharing formulae have been finalised. Thackeray reiterated the same after LS result were announced on May 23.If Congress and NCP are not able to turn things around in the next few months, they face neardecimation in the state barely five years after ruling for over a decade. But the leaderships of Congress and NCP seem unable to act decisively. While BJP and Sena reaped the benefits of coming together despite much acrimony, the opposition alliance was hurt as it could not tie up with Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), a loose Muslim-Dalitand-OBC coalition led by Dalit leader Prakash Ambedkar and AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi.VBA polled a cumulative 41 lakh votes in the state, mostly denting the Congress-NCP vote share. While its Imtiyaaz Jaleel (AIMIM) won from Aurangabad, it played spoiler in 9-odd seats and affected over 10 by bagging over 50,000 votes.This is one of the key challenges the opposition faces, and though Congress is accusing BJP of sponsoring VBA, senior Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan has sent an open request for an alliance with Ambedkar. But Ambedkar has indicated he will need wooing, saying, after the LS results, VBA will contest all 288 assembly seats in the state. “If Congress-NCP wants to ally with VBA, they should come to the same platform to talk,” said a VBA leader, making it clear the party should be treated as a crucial member of the ally.