The latest Monmouth University poll of New Hampshire shows Donald Trump continuing to lead the GOP field by a double-digit margin.

The poll, however, shows a very tight race for second place, with Jeb Bush surging 9 points since Monmouth’s last survey in January.

Trump leads the field with 30 percent support, essentially unchanged since Monmouth’s last poll in early January. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is second with 14 percent support, also unchanged since early January. Marco Rubio has 13 percent support, up just one point in the last month. Ted Cruz has 12 percent, down just two points since the beginning of the year.

The momentum seems to be with Jeb Bush, who has surged 9 points in the last month. Bush has moved from 4 percent support in early January to 13 percent support today. He is tied with Marco Rubio for third.

Considering the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error, New Hampshire currently has a four-way race for second. Kasich, Rubio, Bush and Cruz are all well positioned to finish runner up in Tuesday’s primary. Chris Christie is much further back with just 6 percent support, down slightly since January.

All the pundit talk about Marco Rubio having momentum going into Tuesday’s vote looks hollow against this poll. Rubio’s support level in the state is unchanged since November. The only significant change in New Hampshire since the Fall is growing support for both Bush and Ted Cruz and a collapse in support for Ben Carson.

Two notes of caution, however. The Monmouth poll was conducted before Saturday’s Republican debate, which may reshuffle the race for second and third in the state. Marco Rubio was widely acknowledged to have stumbled in the debate, while Govs. Bush, Kasich and Christie were perceived to have done well.

In addition, only 49 percent of likely Republican voters say they are certain in their vote. Almost one-third of voters, 31 percent say they have a “strong preference” in whom to support. Monmouth did a follow up survey after the Iowa caucus and found that just over half of those voters with a “strong preference” stuck with their candidate on election day.