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The Progressive Conservative candidate in the new Carleton riding will lose and would be a bad MPP even if she won the next election, Ottawa’s most prominent provincial Tory said in a private email Tuesday.

Lisa MacLeod has represented Nepean-Carleton in the Ontario legislature since 2006 but the riding is being split at the next election. MacLeod is running in the northern suburban section, called Nepean. After one of their now-routine ugly nomination squabbles, the Tories nominated young trade lawyer Goldie Ghamari in the rural Carleton section last November.

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Ghamari is a dangerous pick, the email says.

“For 22 years John Baird and I have kept Carleton deep Tory Blue and now that is at risk,” says the email. “I chose a tougher, urban seat and I do not regret the choice, but I am gutted by what comes next in Carleton as I not only believe the current candidate will not win but worse, if she does win, she will not be a suitable representative for my constituents who I remain loyal to.”

The email went to prominent Nepean conservatives, including former senator Marjory LeBreton and fundraiser Thom Bennett, and was forwarded several times before I saw it. At first, MacLeod said she didn’t know anything about the email. Later in the day, she acknowledged it was genuine.

“I have remained silent on the choice of the new PC Candidate in Carleton,” MacLeod’s email said. “I know it is clear to many that she does not enjoy my support- .my sign crew in Carleton has all quit the party- not one remains as a result of the shady founding meeting and subsequent nomination (you may recall my speech at the founding meeting where I warned against splitting the party but clear as day, it is split now). Tories are looking for new parties in parts of the riding to support and I have dealt with many constituents who call me in tears asking me to come back. So evident is the poor choice of candidate that Kathleen Wynne actually went to Carleton last Friday as a target seat for the Liberals (I do not need to remind anyone that Pierre Poilievre only narrowly maintained his seat in the last election!).”