Posted by Prof. Goose on August 19, 2007 - 8:30pm

UPDATE, NEW POST UP TOP AS OF 1:20 AM EDT, 8/21

We know that many of the models have Dean going into the Bay of Campeche. But what does that mean for supply and production?

Well, if the current forecast holds we could be talking about 2.5 million barrels per day of supply capacity being shut in for a while, and some of that for an extended amount of time. Can that matter when the US consumes about 21 million barrels per day (and the world consumes 85 mbpd)? Yes.

Especially when there isn't "slack" supply to be brought to market. That is what "peak oil" is about.

The markets aren't reacting yet. Do they know something we don't know? Maybe.

But what do we actually know about Mexico and its supply and infrastructure?

Under the fold (click "there's more" below), I am going to try to bring together some of our information we have gleaned to this point. I also encourage you to deliver news tips, forecasts, insights, and other links in the comment thread below.

UPDATE: PEMEX is shutting down ~140 rigs and moving 13,000+ workers on land. Cantarell + Ku-Maloob-Zaap account for 66% of the total oil production of PEMEX in June 2007. Cantarell alone is 47%.