Since 1990 only 3 number 1 overall draft picks have played for 3 teams before their age 30 season: Steve Emtman, David Carr, and Sam Bradford. These three players all share some common traits, such as injury history untapped potential, and bad to mediocre teams surrounding them. Some of the blame can be placed on the players themselves, but it takes a 53 man roster to be a team, so sometimes some of the blame can be placed on the other 52 guys that make up the team. However, Bradford is in a much better position to succeed than the other two to be successful on his third team.

Emtman was a star defensive tackle who came out of the University of Washington, leading his Huskies to a Rose Bowl victory in 1990, and being named the Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year in 1991. He was drafted first overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 1992, but could not stay healthy. Injuries derailed his career with the Colts, but in 1995 he made a comeback with the Miami Dolphins. After spending 2 years with them, he played 3 games for the Washington Redskins in 1997, but retired after that. In only 5 years, Emtman had blown out both knees and ruptured a disk in his neck, causing an untimely retirement from the game.

David Carr rose to stardom on the back of his 2001 college season with the Fresno State Bulldogs in which he threw for over 4,800 yards and tossed 46 touchdowns to only 9 interceptions. He was drafted by the Houston Texans in the 2002 expansion draft, becoming the first ever draft pick by the Texans. Carr struggled mightily in his time in the NFL, especially with his accuracy. In his five years in Houston, only once did he ever post a completion percentage above 62%. He was released following the 2006 season and signed with the Carolina Panthers. Carr started 4 games for the Panthers following an injury to Jake Delhomme, posting a 58.3 Quarterback Rating (QBR) and a 53.7% completion percentage. He was injured in the fifth game of the season and played very sparingly after that. He was then traded to the New York Giants when he was 29. He played a few more years as a backup and retired in 2012.

Now on to Bradford. He was the Heisman winner in 2008 at Oklahoma throwing for 4,721 yards, 50 TDs, 8 INTs, and a 67.9% completion rate, all while leading the Sooners to a 12-1 record and an appearance in the National Title Game. Looking for redemption after the National Championship loss to Florida, Bradford returned to school for one more shot at the title. However, he suffered a shoulder injury in a game against BYU, and then again against Texas, ending his season. He declared for the draft that year, and was selected by the St. Louis Rams. Bradford made strides forward in the following years, but an ACL injury prematurely ended his 2013 season, and re injury to it in the 2014 preseason voided that ensuing season. He was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles for Nick Foles in 2015 and had a stellar back half of the season with a 98.5 passer rating and a 10/4 TD to INT ratio over his final 7 games. With the Eagles drafting Carson Wentz and Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater going down with injury, the perfect storm had been created to give Bradford a shot at a third team before his 30th birthday.

QB G GS Rec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Y/A QBR Carr ‘06 16 16 6-10 302 442 68.3 2767 11 2.5 12 2.7 6.3 82.1 Bradford ’15 First Half 7 7 3-4 170 274 62.0 1766 9 3.3 10 3.6 6.4 78.1 Bradford ’15 Second Half 7 7 4-3 176 258 68.2 1959 10 3.9 4 1.6 7.6 98.5 Bradford ‘16 3 3 3-0 66 95 69.5 719 4 4.2 0 0.0 7.6 105.5

Bradford showed a significant increase in performance over the second half of his season, getting better in every stat, and he has increased his performance even more to start this year. Compare this to David Carr’s last full season as a starter. His stats are comparable to Bradford’s first half. The biggest difference has been Bradford’s ability to avoid interceptions, as well as put the ball on receivers: two things that Carr failed to do throughout his career. This is also one of the Vikings biggest strengths. Big, sure handed wide receivers such as Stefon Diggs, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Kyle Rudolph make for easy targets to hit, something he severely lacked in both St. Louis and in Philadelphia. In 2015, Philadelphia receivers dropped 7.9% of all passes thrown their way (42/532), and as you might assume, it upped Bradford’s interceptions and took away a few touchdowns. This 7.9% was the highest drop rate in the entire league. When Bradford was with the Rams in 2013, two of his primary targets in Tavon Austin and tight end Jared Cook had 7 and 6 drops respectively. Compare this with the 2015 Vikings drop rate: 3.6% (16/447). Bradford finally has a team around him that can catch the ball when it hits them in the hands, automatically he should be better off than he was last year.

Bradford will also benefit from having a defense that does not rank in the bottom three of the league like he did last year in Philadelphia. The Eagles ranked 30th in the NFL last year in yards surrendered and 28th in points given up. The Vikings in 2015 ranked 13th in yards/game given up, but a stellar 5th in points surrendered. Since he will not have to worry about the field position given up nearly as much, Bradford will have the opportunity to take more chances in the passing game, resulting in possibly more big plays. This is not a guarantee, but given his rising accuracy the last few years, the chances are good that this will effect him positively.

Perhaps most importantly, Bradford finally has a coach who compliments his play style. The first two years with the Rams, Bradford played under Steve Spagnuolo. The first year he played well, guiding them to a 7-9 record, a large increase over the 1-15 record the previous season. However, in 2011, Bradford and the Rams sputtered winning only two games. Jeff Fisher took over the helm in 2012, but he also did not surround Bradford with weapons, leaving his quarterback to struggle with the dearth of talent that plagued him the previous two years. Moving to Philadelphia put the quarterback in a brand new situation under head coach Chip Kelly. Kelly’s up tempo offense relied on quick reads and options instead of complex schemes. Coupled with the new environment, Bradford also had to deal with Kelly trading away players as if they were pieces of his lunch in the cafeteria. Consistency was not part of Kelly’s strategy, leading to suspect circumstances for Bradford. In Minnesota, Bradford will have Mike Zimmer controlling the team, but Norv Turner is running the offense. The balance of this scheme will allow Bradford to finally blossom and turn into the quarterback that the Vikings need him to be. If there was any need for proof of this, look no further than the week 2 match up against the Green Bay Packers. Bradford was brilliant, completing 22 of 31 passes for 286 yards with 2 tds and no picks. With such little time to study the playbook and thrown into the deep end, Bradford wowed all viewers as he calmly worked the offense and was clearly in control, ending the game with a perfect clock controlled drive.

Bradford may not be the best quarterback in the league, but he might be a perfect fit for the Vikings, who just a few weeks ago lost Teddy Bridgewater for the year, and not long after that had Adrian Peterson go down with another injury. Before Bradford, that combination would have spelled a death sentence for the purple and gold, but with him, they are unbeaten and well on their way back to the playoffs.

Sources

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/

http://www.nfl.com/stats