Ark Park officials defend attendance estimates

FRANKFORT, Ky. The proposed Noah's Ark theme park in Northern Kentucky would attract up to 640,000 visitors in its best year, according to a consultant who studied the project's economic impact for the state. That's far less than the 1.2 million to 2.2 million visitors estimated by the project's developers.

The consultant, Hunden Strategic Partners, of Chicago, studied the likely economic impact as part of the Kentucky Tourism, Arts and Heritage Cabinet's review of Ark Encounter's application for up to $18.25 million in state tax incentives for its project.

While the project would attract far fewer visitors than Ark Encounter says its own study projects, the Hunden report still concludes that it would have a financial benefit to the state and meet the economic qualifications to earn state incentives.

Last month the cabinet rejected Ark Encounter's application over a non-economic issue: concerns that the project would promote religion and violate the separation of church and state. Specifically, cabinet officials said the developers had changed their position on hiring and planned to discriminate in hiring based on religion.

Ken Ham, chief executive and founder of Ark Encounter's parent organization Answers in Genesis, defended the higher attendance estimates of his group's own consultant.

"But even if you go on the basis of their (Hunden's) over-conservative figures, they're saying we still fulfill the requirements and bring a net gain into the state," Ham said.

But a critic of the project, Ed Hensley, treasurer of the Kentucky Secular Society, said, "The Hunden report adds more evidence that the Commonwealth of Kentucky made the correct decision in rejecting the Ark Encounter application for tax incentives."

The Kentucky Secular Society obtained a copy of the Hunden report from the tourism cabinet through the Kentucky Open Records Act and released portions of the report to news media on Tuesday. The Courier-Journal requested a copy of the 100-page report from the cabinet Wednesday through the Open Records Act.

Ark Encounter is proposing a $73 million project in Grant County featuring a 510-foot wooden replica of Noah's Ark as described in the Old Testament. The project also would include a petting zoo, theater, two cafes and gift shop.

After the cabinet rejected its application in December, Answers in Genesis said it was considering bringing a federal lawsuit reversing that decision. Ham said Wednesday that option is still under consideration.

The cabinet commissions a report on the economic impact of applications to its tax-rebate program for tourism projects.

In this case, Hunden's report on the ark project contained two scenarios. One anticipated a "a mainstream approach to the attraction," and a second assumed "a more religious-focused approach that may present a specific viewpoint" more associated with the Creation Museum, an existing attraction owned by Answers in Genesis in Boone County.

Under the "mainstream" scenario, Hunden estimated the project would draw just less than 500,000 visitors in its first year — a number that would rise to 640,000 visitors in its third year, then level off at about 400,000 in the seventh year. It estimated 787 jobs being created.

Under the other scenario where the public sees the attraction as "more religious-focused," the project would create 514 jobs and attract 325,000 visitors in its first year, a little more than 425,000 in the third year, then settle at about 275,000 in year seven.

Hunden estimates that, after the cost of state incentives and a proposed $11 million new interchange on I-75 near the park are deducted, the "net new fiscal impact" of the project would be $11.4 million over 10 years under the "mainstream" scenario. It would be $4.9 million under the "more religious-focused" scenario.

But Ham insisted that an earlier study by South Carolina-based America's Research Group for Answers in Genesis was far more thorough and has an accurate estimate of much higher attendance.

That study, Ham said, estimated 1.2 million visitors at a minimum in the park's first year and eventually the likelihood of more than 2 million per year.

He said America's Research Group almost precisely projected the 404,000 visitors that the Creation Museum had in its first year of operation.

"That's pretty good research," Ham said. "And the ark has a much wider appeal (than the Creation Museum.). If we can get 400,000 for the Creation Museum, you know that ark is going to get a lot more than that."

Britt Beemer, owner of America's Research Group, said his study included interviews of 1,000 consumers while Hunden did not survey consumers but was mostly "parsed numbers based upon other theme parks."

Gil Lawson, spokesman for the cabinet, declined to comment on the Hunden report. And Hunden's office did not immediately respond to a phone call seeking comment.Britt Beemer, owner of America's Research Group, said his study included interviews of 1,000 consumers while Hunden did not survey consumers but was mostly "parsed numbers based upon other theme parks."

Gil Lawson, spokesman for the cabinet, declined to comment on the Hunden report. And Hunden's office did not immediately respond to a phone call seeking comment.

Reporter Tom Loftus can be reached at (502) 875-5136. Follow him on Twitter at @TomLoftus_CJ.