Jeff Sagarin NFL ratings

 Sagarin ratings index

All Contents Copyright © 2013 Jeff Sagarin tm . All rights reserved. Final NFL 2012 Ratings through results of 2013 FEBRUARY 3 SUNDAY (SUPER BOWL) this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom (2) DIVISION AVERAGES (listed top-to-bottom & by conference) (3) teams listed by DIVISION (listed in order within divisions) The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 14. NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season. THREE different home edges shown: first for RATING , second for ELO_SCORE , third for PREDICTOR(PURE POINTS) The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ELO_SCORE applies ELO principles to the actual SCORES of the games and so it is now SCORE BASED and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR , BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is also a very good PREDICTOR of future games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two somewhat different SCORE BASED methods, ELO_SCORE and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) , and thus should be a good predictor in its own right. NFL ratings will be updated after games of Sunday and again after the Monday night game.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Final NFL 2012 through games of 2013 February 3 Sunday (Super Bowl) RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_SCORE | PURE POINTS HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.53 ] [ 2.63 ] [ 2.38 ] 1 Seattle Seahawks = 30.09 12 6 0 21.86( 5) 4 2 0 | 8 3 0 | 29.62 2 | 30.61 1 2 San Francisco 49ers = 30.07 13 5 1 22.54( 3) 6 3 0 | 7 5 1 | 30.12 1 | 30.03 2 3 Denver Broncos = 29.47 13 4 0 19.00( 24) 1 4 0 | 4 4 0 | 29.59 3 | 29.35 3 4 New England Patriots = 28.73 13 5 0 19.19( 22) 3 4 0 | 4 4 0 | 28.73 4 | 28.75 4 5 Baltimore Ravens = 27.73 14 6 0 21.12( 13) 5 2 0 | 6 4 0 | 28.24 5 | 27.27 5 6 Green Bay Packers = 27.23 12 6 0 21.51( 9) 3 4 0 | 7 5 0 | 27.64 6 | 26.86 7 7 Atlanta Falcons = 26.54 14 4 0 19.87( 19) 3 1 0 | 6 3 0 | 26.15 7 | 26.97 6 8 New York Giants = 25.45 9 7 0 21.34( 10) 2 2 0 | 5 4 0 | 25.01 9 | 25.92 8 9 Chicago Bears = 25.41 10 6 0 20.59( 15) 0 5 0 | 3 6 0 | 25.07 8 | 25.77 9 10 Houston Texans = 24.29 13 5 0 19.03( 23) 3 3 0 | 4 4 0 | 24.92 10 | 23.69 10 Final NFL 2012 through games of 2013 February 3 Sunday (Super Bowl) RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_SCORE | PURE POINTS HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.53 ] [ 2.63 ] [ 2.38 ] 11 Cincinnati Bengals = 22.92 10 7 0 18.93( 25) 2 3 0 | 3 3 0 | 22.84 11 | 23.00 11 12 Minnesota Vikings = 22.53 10 7 0 21.81( 6) 4 4 0 | 5 5 0 | 22.79 12 | 22.28 13 13 Washington Redskins = 22.45 10 7 0 21.28( 11) 2 3 0 | 4 6 0 | 22.05 13 | 22.87 12 14 New Orleans Saints = 21.20 7 9 0 21.21( 12) 1 5 0 | 1 8 0 | 20.33 18 | 22.09 14 15 Carolina Panthers = 20.87 7 9 0 21.08( 14) 1 5 0 | 4 5 0 | 20.83 15 | 20.92 15 16 St. Louis Rams = 20.50 7 8 1 22.74( 2) 2 4 1 | 3 5 1 | 20.95 14 | 20.06 18 17 Pittsburgh Steelers = 20.44 8 8 0 18.76( 29) 2 2 0 | 4 3 0 | 20.34 17 | 20.56 17 18 Dallas Cowboys = 20.38 8 8 0 21.90( 4) 1 5 0 | 3 8 0 | 20.18 19 | 20.59 16 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 20.11 7 9 0 20.41( 16) 1 3 0 | 4 7 0 | 20.37 16 | 19.86 19 20 San Diego Chargers = 17.71 7 9 0 18.35( 31) 0 4 0 | 0 7 0 | 17.66 21 | 17.76 20 Final NFL 2012 through games of 2013 February 3 Sunday (Super Bowl) RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_SCORE | PURE POINTS HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.53 ] [ 2.63 ] [ 2.38 ] 21 Miami Dolphins = 17.32 7 9 0 18.86( 27) 1 4 0 | 3 4 0 | 18.00 20 | 16.62 22 22 Detroit Lions = 16.95 4 12 0 21.52( 8) 1 7 0 | 2 9 0 | 16.59 23 | 17.32 21 23 Indianapolis Colts = 16.30 11 6 0 17.69( 32) 2 4 0 | 3 4 0 | 17.00 22 | 15.57 25 24 Arizona Cardinals = 16.07 5 11 0 22.97( 1) 2 6 0 | 2 9 0 | 16.27 24 | 15.87 24 25 Cleveland Browns = 15.19 5 11 0 19.89( 18) 0 4 0 | 1 6 0 | 14.39 26 | 15.94 23 26 Buffalo Bills = 14.24 6 10 0 18.62( 30) 0 5 0 | 0 6 0 | 14.85 25 | 13.59 26 27 New York Jets = 13.70 6 10 0 19.51( 20) 0 5 0 | 1 5 0 | 14.36 27 | 12.97 27 28 Philadelphia Eagles = 11.67 4 12 0 21.54( 7) 2 2 0 | 2 7 0 | 11.40 29 | 11.93 28 29 Tennessee Titans = 11.11 6 10 0 18.77( 28) 0 5 0 | 0 6 0 | 11.63 28 | 10.53 30 30 Oakland Raiders = 10.38 4 12 0 19.26( 21) 0 4 0 | 0 7 0 | 9.79 30 | 10.92 29 Final NFL 2012 through games of 2013 February 3 Sunday (Super Bowl) RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_SCORE | PURE POINTS HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.53 ] [ 2.63 ] [ 2.38 ] 31 Jacksonville Jaguars = 6.74 2 14 0 18.91( 26) 0 5 0 | 0 7 0 | 6.62 31 | 6.87 31 32 Kansas City Chiefs = 6.20 2 14 0 20.05( 17) 0 4 0 | 2 5 0 | 5.68 32 | 6.66 32 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings

There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.

DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 (NFC WEST) = 24.55 24.18 ( 1) 4 24.22 ( 1) 2 (NFC NORTH) = 23.35 23.03 ( 2) 4 23.06 ( 2) 3 (NFC SOUTH) = 21.80 22.18 ( 3) 4 22.16 ( 3) 4 (afc north) = 21.61 21.57 ( 4) 4 21.58 ( 4) 5 (NFC EAST) = 20.46 19.99 ( 5) 4 20.07 ( 5) 6 (afc east) = 17.59 18.50 ( 6) 4 18.31 ( 6) 7 (afc west) = 15.31 15.94 ( 7) 4 15.65 ( 7) 8 (afc south) = 14.31 14.61 ( 8) 4 14.53 ( 8) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 5 (NFC EAST) = 20.46 19.99 ( 5) 4 20.07 ( 5) 2 (NFC NORTH) = 23.35 23.03 ( 2) 4 23.06 ( 2) 3 (NFC SOUTH) = 21.80 22.18 ( 3) 4 22.16 ( 3) 1 (NFC WEST) = 24.55 24.18 ( 1) 4 24.22 ( 1) 6 (afc east) = 17.59 18.50 ( 6) 4 18.31 ( 6) 4 (afc north) = 21.61 21.57 ( 4) 4 21.58 ( 4) 8 (afc south) = 14.31 14.61 ( 8) 4 14.53 ( 8) 7 (afc west) = 15.31 15.94 ( 7) 4 15.65 ( 7) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division