May 21, 2013

The recent attack on the Syrian city of Qusair — which is located in the Homs countryside, a strategic area whose importance was highlighted in several Al-Monitor articles — carries many indications.

The latest developments on the ground confirm that pro-Assad military forces have conducted an incursion into the city and reached the main highway in Qusair on the evening of Monday [May 20]. This has allowed them to control half of the city and to maintain a military siege on the other half still under the control of opposition armed forces. There are several observations regarding this pivotal battle:

First, the developments of the Qusair battle coincided with reports published by some websites close to Hezbollah about the death of Shiite militants, said to number 16, in defense of the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus. The same websites said that the "defenders" include nationals from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and even Iran. In Beirut, it was confirmed that the nephew of Fayez Shokor, the secretary-general of the Baath Party in Lebanon and an ally of Hezbollah, was among the casualties. This concurrence increased accusations against the main Lebanese Shiite organization by its opponents of aiding the Syrian regime forces in the Qusair battle.

Second, the immediate response in Lebanon to the advance of the regime forces in Qusair was the outbreak of renewed military clashes in the northern city of Tripoli between Sunni neighborhoods and the sole Alawite neighborhood located on the eastern side of the city. Lebanese Alawite sources expressed serious concerns that the [Syrian] regime’s full control over Qusair would lead to reprisals or retaliations in Tripoli against the Alawite neighborhood. Some even fear that Sunni fundamentalists may attempt to storm the Alawite neighborhood in response to the fall of Qusair. The situation has prompted the Lebanese military to step up its level of alert in anticipation of any possible developments.

Third, in the same context, it has now become evident that the fall of Qusair into the hands of the Syrian regime effectively implies that the Syrian army will very soon control the entire common border with northern Lebanon. In the Lebanese areas lying south of this border flourish Sunni fundamentalist and jihadist groups. Thus, these groups will be caught between the Syrian army in the north, the Lebanese army deployed on its territory, and the Shiite Hezbollah forces in the east. It is a new risky and critical position for these militants, as for the Lebanese border areas in the north. When the Syrian army completes the process of cleansing Qusair and its vicinity from the remaining pockets of opposition militants, the Syrian forces might very likely conduct incursions into Lebanese northern territories to strike the bases of Syrian opposition militants there, or to cut off their logistical supply lines. Such incursions will expand the sphere of Syrian-Lebanese tensions, which may extend into northern Lebanese territories, and perhaps areas that have so far remained unaffected by the conflict.