This instalment has got a nice amount of content, so I have split it into two parts. I may keep it this way for future races. GTE will be following soon I promise!





This was a very strange race that almost wasn’t to be! From long red flags to a GTE finishing above all LMP2s! It had a bit of everything. We did have some drier racing for periods allowing some comparisons to be made with at least some confidence.





I will be covering:

LMP1:

• EoT - Are we there yet?! How far away are the Privateers from the Hybrids, and how far do they need to go

•

Comparing pace at Fuji

•

What to hope/expect for in future

LMP2:

•

Comparing performance of each car (measuring combination of Driver/Tyre/Chassis)

•

Comparing Amateur performances





LMP1

Where We Stand & Can the Privateers Catch Up to Toyota?

Whilst we didn’t have noticeable mechanical updates for Shanghai, we did have a significant change in EoT ( Equivalence of Technology ) for LMP1. The non-hybrids were given a significant fuel increase for this race (9.9%/km for turbocharged and 8.5%/km for naturally aspirated). How has this affected the difference between the Hybrid Toyotas and the Privateers?





By looking at the last 3 races, and plotting the fastest laps for each car, one can see the maximum pace that a car can be shown to produce in the race, but also how consistently it can produce these fast laps. Tyres can only stay fresh for so long and you can only have a limited number of clean laps held up minimally by slower cars.





At Silverstone the gap to the closest privateer was around 2 seconds. In this case the Rebellions were the closest in pace to the Toyotas followed by the #17 SMP. The differences were fairly clear-cut across the class. It was impressive how close the Toyotas could match each other.









At Fuji, the gap came down further as Toyota agreed to have the performance of its cars reduced with the addition of ballast. The Privateers also had a fuel energy per lap and fuel per stint increase.





For this race the SMPs were the closest match to Toyota as they chased down some points after a bad start – the Rebellions were under no pressure, so could have a lower risk drive. A second a lap on only the fastest ones recorded, this is still a significant gap to the eventual winners.









In Shanghai we never had proper dry running, so this may not be comparable to the other plots during the race; primarily down to the ability of the Hybrid cars to accelerate due to 4WD and help with oversteer here. That said, the fastest lap of an SMP (#17) bettered the fastest lap of a Toyota (#7)…





Sure just like qualifying a Privateer can have a go near the top on a good lap, however the consistency in the wet just isn’t there. While the Toyotas can replicate their fast laps more readily, the Privateers are much less consistent – probably finding it harder to pass traffic without the corner exit boost. For example a Toyota may have to wait behind for one corner, whereas a Privateers may have to wait through several.





This could also be a tyre management issue, where the tyres could operate more consistently and for longer on the Toyotas. The current tyres are optimised for the Hybrid power delivery (4WD) and not for the higher power output on the rear axle.

This may potentially change in future as

a proposed new tyre package will give the Privateers some pace and consistency along the stint length (not overheating rears and keeping temperature in the fronts).









Interestingly the gap between the Toyotas at Shanghai was significant – the 8 was faster but lost out on a strategy call. Adds another dimension to reports of a driver of the number 8 asking this question towards the team (in this case physically).

Going Forward – Are the changes over yet!

No, not unless Toyota dig their heels in, I expect/hope for another change.





So long as the Privateers aren’t lifting and coasting, they require no fuel allowance increase - so an boost may not be given here. It goes against earlier narrative of the Superseason to give the thirstier Privateers a stint length advantage, but they could make something of a healthy amount of fuel per hour/per stint. I don’t expect this is the route the FIA go.

The Toyota already has ballast, so could have more. We could have a fuel flow rate decrease meaning more lift and coast too for the Hybrid machines. It is more and more likely as we reach the upper limits of the Privateer powertrain performance envelopes that Toyota have to hold their cars back even more significantly to get a balanced race between more than two cars; two perfectly reliable cars so far this season it must be said.





Looking forward I hope Sebring will be a dry race, allowing us to see these EoT changes in plainer sight. I’ll leave you with this nice little stat: if you add together the fastest sectors in qualifying set by the #1, you’d get a lap earning pole position. The Privateers can do it, heck they are faster than times set by Porsche’s 919 Hybrid in the past, they may just need a few extra parts to finish off the puzzle…

LMP2

Car Performance

For LMP2 I will be looking at what each driver/car/tyre combination could do just like LMP1.





Each tyre (Michelin/Dunlop) have properties in different conditions, and so the fastest track conditions may not have had each car’s corresponding fastest driver. With that said, let’s look at the times:









The Michelin shod Dallara performed well with 10 very impressive laps. There is performance there in the damp conditions, but they dropped off significantly. This is replicating dry performances of some LMP2s on Michelins, as the pace on a lap is there, but the consistency at that pace is not there yet with this combination.

Next up is the Oreca-Dunlop cars of Signatech Alpine, TDS and the two JCDC cars. These could perform well on one lap pace proven by the TDS and Alpine, but some fared better with consistency. The #38 JCDC performed the best here, having the lowest gradient in the more linear area of the graph whilst also having good fastest 5 laps.

The TDS and #37 JCDC were tightly matched throughout the plot, and the Signatech Alpine dropped off significantly. This may be down to having a lower rated driver in the car at this time.





The Dragonspeed Oreca on Michelins had surprisingly good consistency and was almost able to match the best car in the class based on this data. They did go toe to toe throughout the race with the eventual winners. The Oreca looks after its Michelin tyres well compared to the other chassis available, and I expect this package to get better and better as the season goes on.





Way off the pace is the Larbre Ligier on Michelins despite having a Pro driver this time round. You can see when his laps are done, there is a significant drop in pace. The trend of pace loss vs laps is similar to the Dallara Michelin Combination; indicating how well the Oreca Michelin package worked out for this race comparatively.

Am Performance

Now let’s have a look at the Am performances. We can’t compare like we have above with sorting by fastest laps as track conditions were not necessarily equal for each driver; therefore, I have plotted by elapsed time to preserve this variable.









The first two thirds of laps were done in the drier conditions, with the rain returning around 5:15.





In the first phase, Weiron Tan was in early for the #37 alongside Erwin Creed. Then there is a gap for a Safety Car. Tan was fast but was inconsistent; I put this down to the track conditions.





In the middle phase of the plot Perrodo and Thiriet in their respective Orecas produce consistent lap times. Frits Van Eerd starts well alongside everyone else but fades first when the rain comes. Creed impressed me here able to get consistently fast laps relative to Frits’ Dallara on the same Michelins. Maybe the Ligier is good in the wet on Michelins; this combination did win a very wet ELMS race too.





The big fight for the fastest times here were between the JCDC cars (Jeffri now in the #37). Gonzalez in the Dragonspeed did well here too before everyone started to slow from the rain. Thiriet had to do some more driver time before the finish, he brought the car home with some good laps considering the conditions.









The big performances here were from Roberto Gonzalez, Nabil Jeffri and Gabriel Aubry (shown above) with the latter holding onto the lead with intermediate tyres despite the track requiring full wets…





I’d like to do this kind of comparison in the dry however as a lot of driver time was taken up behind Safety Car or yellow flags for spins etc – who knows what will happen at Sebring!

Looking Forward to Sebring

Hopefully this short pause between racing allows some LMP1 teams to do a test and introduce some more updates to the cars. We should see some movements in the tyres used by the Privateers; can this be a key to unlock some more much needed performance?





Another thing to look out for is the potential EoT changes to both the Privateers and the Hybrid Toyotas. Will they allow another reduction in performance?





In P2 I hope the Ams can live with the bumpy track surface and we have a dry race. G-Drive have announced an entry for this race too with an Oreca 07, so another top quality car to compare against.



