After a series of successes in the Syrian civil war over the last few months, Syrian President Bashar Assad may direct his army to renew efforts in the south of the country, primarily along the border with Jordan.

The Arab media have been reporting for weeks that a major military campaign is in the works for the region where the Syrian uprising erupted just over three years ago.

Demonstrations against the Assad regime began in the town of Daraa in March 2011 and initially constituted an economic protest. Within months they spread all over the country and from the spring of 2012 to the spring of 2013, the assessments were that the regime was on the verge of collapse. But Assad managed to tip the scales back in his favor, thanks to significant financial and military aid from Russia and Iran and with the assistance of Hezbollah combat units. After the occupation of several towns of great tactical importance in the Qalamoun mountains, near the border with Lebanon, the Syrian military scored some victories in major cities as well, among them Homs and Aleppo, where Assad recently managed to push rebel forces out of key positions.

Daraa itself has maintained a heavy presence of various rebel groups and as the war dragged on, extremist armed groups inspired by Al-Qaida became more prominent. But the fighting in the town and its environs has been relatively low-intensity compared to other regions, chiefly because the Daraa region was not regarded by the regime as being of much importance beyond its symbolism.

In recent days, however, there have been reports of rebel losses in battles with the army in Daraa, along with other reports of the military preparing for a bigger operation. Syrian army activity in the area will require Israeli vigilance because of its relative proximity to the border area in the southern Golan Heights. But it is Jordan, Syria’s neighbor to the south, that is most concerned by the tension. According to a report in the Arabic newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi, published in London, Jordan recently sent an intelligence officer to Syria for a covert meeting in which the Syrians were asked to focus their efforts against the Al-Qaida affiliated groups operating in the border area between the two countries.

Two years ago, King Abdullah of Jordan was still calling for Assad’s resignation in the face of the regime’s atrocities against its citizens. It seems that now, following the Syrian successes, the Hashemite kingdom is being more cautious. Jordan fears the ramifications of extremist activity along the border. According to reports in the Arab media, Jordan is also getting help from Israel – drone reconnaissance, among other things – in an effort to increase the monitoring of the border area with Syria. Two weeks ago, Jordanian aircraft attacked a convoy of what were apparently rebel vehicles that were approaching the border from Syrian territory. Jordan’s decision to formally report the incident was interpreted as a signal of Amman’s intent to forcibly prevent any spillover of violence from Syria into its territory.

Meanwhile, Jordanians are concerned by the huge influx of Syrian refugees; according to some estimates, there are already a million refugees in Jordan. The Jordanian authorities are trying to restrict the refugees’ exit from the camps in the north to the rest of the kingdom, fearing tension between them and Jordanian citizens, especially given the fierce competition for jobs.

While the Assad regime is racking up achievements in many areas in Syria, along the border with Israel the picture is totally reversed. The Syrian government holds only two enclaves along the border region - in the area of Mount Hermon and the Druze village next to Al-Khader, and in the Quneitra region. The rebel organizations are deepening their hold in the area. Israel believes that the slow Syrian withdrawal from the Golan Heights reflects the regime’s priorities. The government believes there are places that must be dealt with more urgently, and as long as the Golan area remains stable Assad is in no hurry to make too much of an effort there.