by Aaron Schatz

Here are our DVOA projections for 2017, updated from the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2017.

For those new to our website, you can find an explanation of DVOA here. For this season forecast, offense, defense, and special teams DVOA are all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams over the past decade. Our system starts by considering the team's DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback. Then we look at a number of other variables which suggest when a team will be better or worse than would otherwise be expected due to standard regression towards the mean. Factors include major offseason personnel changes, coaching experience, recent draft history, combined tenure on the offensive line, and certain players returning from injury (or, in the case of these preseason updates, certain players getting injured in the preseason).

The numbers we are presenting here are exactly what the projection system spit out. As we say every year: "A few of them will look strange to you. A few of them look strange to us." As always, the offensive projections come out in a wider range than defensive projections because offense performance tends to be easier to predict (and more consistent from year to year) than defensive performance. If you are looking for subjective projections, Thursday we will be running our usual staff predictions article where we all talk about where we think the numbers are wrong.

We've also done our first playoff odds report simulation based on these updated DVOA projections, and I've added the playoff odds and Super Bowl championship odds to the table below. At the start of a new season, our simulation is very conservative about the average number of wins and losses expected for each team. Obviously, the NFL is going to have teams that are 11-5 or better, and it is going to have teams that are 5-11 or worse. It may seem like our simulation predicts half the league to go 8-8, but we know that won't happen. We also use a "dynamic" playoff odds simulation. Each time it plays through the season, it adds 1.5% to the DVOA of every winner and subtracts 1.5% from the DVOA of every loser before moving on to the next week's games. This reflects the fact that DVOA projections are just estimates, and actual performance during the season gives us better knowledge of how good or bad teams really are.

Personnel changes aren't the only difference between this updated simulation and the one we did for Football Outsiders Almanac 2017. This is a smaller simulation which only uses one set of mean projected DVOA ratings, rather than using 1,000 different sets of ratings to represent that some teams have a wider range of probable performance quality than others.

It was a little complicated figuring out how to account for certain suspensions, injuries, and holdouts in the updated season simulation. The simulation ends up getting treated a little differently from the DVOA and schedule strength ratings listed below.

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In the playoff odds simulation, we did the following:

In 80 percent of simulations, Dallas DVOA is -7.8% lower in Weeks 2-8 due to Ezekiel Elliott suspension. In 20 percent of simulations, Elliott gets a temporary restraining order and does not serve the suspension in 2017.

In all simulations, Indianapolis DVOA is -20.0% lower in Weeks 1-2 due to Andrew Luck injury. Luck returns in Week 3 in 20 percent of simulations, and his odds of returning increase 20 percent each week until we assume Luck is starting for Indianapolis in Week 7 in all simulations.

In all simulations, Los Angeles Rams DVOA is -5.0% lower in Week 1 due to Aaron Donald holdout. Donald then returns in Week 2 (50 percent), Week 3 (30 percent), Week 4 (12 percent), or not until Week 7 because he needs 10 games to accrue a year of service time (8 percent).

The DVOA ratings are more simple in how they incorporate these issues, because we're only using one set of ratings instead of producing a number of possibilities.

The Ezekiel Elliott suspension lowers the Cowboys' DVOA in Weeks 2-8.

We assume Scott Tolzien as the Indianapolis quarterback in Weeks 1 and 2, with Andrew Luck returning in Week 3. This lowers schedule strength for the Rams and Cardinals, but no other Indianapolis opponents.

The Aaron Donald holdout is not incorporated.

The impacts of less important early-season injuries and suspensions have been incorporated into the full-season projected DVOA for the teams in question. The odds of getting the No. 1 pick listed below (and listed on the playoff odds report page) do not incorporate traded picks. Projected division champions are colored in light yellow and projected wild card teams are colored in light purple.

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA TOTAL

RANK MEAN

WINS OFF.

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEF.

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK SCHED SCHED

RANK NO. 1 PICK

ODDS PLAYOFF

ODDS S.B. WIN

ODDS NE 26.5% 1 11.1 17.5% 2 -5.1% 6 3.9% 1 -4.2% 32 0.1% 87.6% 21.4% PIT 23.3% 2 10.5 20.7% 1 -1.7% 14 0.8% 8 -1.1% 23 0.1% 78.0% 14.8% SEA 16.6% 3 9.8 7.4% 6 -10.0% 1 -0.8% 21 -0.2% 18 0.3% 64.3% 9.0% GB 13.7% 4 9.3 16.1% 3 1.5% 20 -0.9% 22 0.6% 13 0.5% 58.5% 6.9% DAL 10.0% 5 8.7 8.1% 4 -2.1% 13 -0.3% 14 3.1% 1 0.8% 46.3% 4.9% OAK 7.5% 6 8.7 5.1% 8 0.4% 18 2.9% 6 0.3% 14 1.1% 49.8% 3.6% NYG 6.5% 7 8.4 -0.9% 18 -5.4% 4 2.0% 7 2.6% 3 1.5% 41.2% 3.2% KC 3.8% 8 8.2 -0.1% 16 -0.8% 15 3.1% 5 1.4% 7 1.6% 42.3% 2.5% PHI 3.7% 9 8.1 -3.3% 21 -3.4% 9 3.5% 4 3.0% 2 1.7% 35.3% 2.4% BAL 3.6% 10 8.5 -2.3% 20 -2.3% 12 3.7% 3 -0.6% 21 1.4% 43.7% 2.6% ATL 3.5% 11 8.3 7.9% 5 2.6% 24 -1.9% 28 0.2% 15 1.5% 42.2% 2.7% ARI 3.4% 12 8.6 0.3% 15 -5.2% 5 -2.2% 31 -1.5% 26 1.2% 42.6% 3.1% CAR 3.1% 13 8.5 -0.8% 17 -4.7% 7 -0.7% 18 -2.2% 29 1.5% 45.5% 2.9% LARM 2.3% 14 8.3 -8.3% 27 -6.8% 2 3.8% 2 -2.0% 27 1.6% 37.6% 2.3% DET 1.6% 15 8.0 2.4% 13 0.6% 19 -0.2% 13 1.3% 8 1.9% 35.9% 2.1% CIN 0.7% 16 8.2 2.8% 11 -0.1% 16 -2.1% 30 -1.4% 25 1.8% 39.2% 1.8% TEAM TOTAL

DVOA TOTAL

RANK MEAN

WINS OFF.

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEF.

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK SCHED SCHED

RANK NO. 1 PICK

ODDS PLAYOFF

ODDS S.B. WIN

ODDS WAS 0.6% 17 7.8 3.0% 10 1.8% 23 -0.6% 17 2.3% 4 2.2% 32.1% 1.8% TEN -1.5% 18 8.1 5.3% 7 5.1% 27 -1.6% 24 -2.1% 28 2.4% 45.2% 1.9% LACH -2.1% 19 7.8 2.5% 12 3.2% 25 -1.4% 23 -0.4% 19 2.7% 35.0% 1.4% MIN -2.9% 20 7.6 -3.8% 22 -2.6% 10 -1.7% 27 1.5% 6 2.7% 28.9% 1.3% TB -4.7% 21 7.5 -1.2% 19 3.3% 26 -0.1% 12 0.0% 17 3.2% 28.9% 1.2% CHI -6.2% 22 7.3 -4.1% 23 1.6% 21 -0.5% 15 1.0% 10 4.0% 24.0% 0.9% DEN -6.6% 23 7.2 -12.4% 30 -5.4% 3 0.3% 10 1.2% 9 4.3% 26.3% 0.8% IND -6.8% 24 7.2 2.3% 14 7.2% 30 -2.0% 29 -2.8% 31 5.4% 29.5% 0.9% MIA -7.4% 25 7.3 -5.2% 26 1.7% 22 -0.5% 16 -0.6% 22 4.3% 25.1% 0.7% NO -8.9% 26 7.2 3.3% 9 11.4% 32 -0.8% 20 0.1% 16 4.7% 23.2% 0.7% HOU -9.9% 27 6.9 -12.3% 29 -4.6% 8 -2.3% 32 0.9% 11 5.2% 25.4% 0.6% JAC -10.3% 28 7.2 -12.8% 31 -2.5% 11 0.0% 11 -2.2% 30 5.6% 28.7% 0.6% BUF -11.9% 29 6.9 -4.7% 24 6.4% 29 -0.7% 19 -0.5% 20 6.3% 19.2% 0.4% SF -14.2% 30 6.5 -5.1% 25 9.8% 31 0.7% 9 1.9% 5 7.5% 13.5% 0.3% CLE -18.2% 31 6.1 -10.5% 28 6.0% 28 -1.7% 26 0.9% 12 10.4% 11.9% 0.1% NYJ -18.6% 32 6.3 -16.9% 32 0.0% 17 -1.7% 25 -1.2% 24 10.5% 13.1% 0.2%

Which teams saw the biggest drop in mean wins since the book, and why?

Dallas, due to the Ezekiel Elliott suspension.

Indianapolis, due to the Andrew Luck injury.

Buffalo, related to the trade of Sammy Watkins and some other variables based on changes in the projected starting lineup.

Chicago, because of the Cam Meredith injury.

New England, but this is less because of the injury to Julian Edelman and more because of defensive changes like the retirement of Rob Ninkovich and injuries to Derek Rivers and Shea McClellin. In addition, by having a range of possible DVOA ratings instead of just using mean DVOA ratings, the simulation in FOA 2017 comes out with a slightly larger range of results. The Patriots and Steelers have fewer mean wins here, while the Jets and Browns move up slightly.

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Which teams saw the biggest gain in mean wins since the book?