5. LaMarcus Aldridge

(AP)

Preseason Odds: 40–1

Last Season’s MVP Race: 10th place

Why He’ll Win: “LaMarcus shoots corner threes now!” might be the most intriguing development that anyone’s game has taken this year. On a less sexy note, he’s turning the ball over less than ever. And he’s a great sentimental pick as a nine-year veteran who has played on the same team for his whole career, improves his game every year, does all the little things, and pretty much exemplifies everything about how a professional athlete should approach his craft.

Why He Won’t: His rebounding numbers are down a bit this year, and he doesn’t really do assists. Even popping a couple threes a week, can you justify him as “better than LeBron?” Can you do it with a straight face?

Exactly.

How do those odds look now? Feels about right, actually. He should beat last year’s 10th-place finish, but he’s still a fringe candidate.

4. Chris Paul

(AP)

Preseason Odds: 12–1

Why He’ll Win: It’s kind of mind-blowing that Chris Paul has never won an MVP award.He finished second in 2007–08, third in 2011–12, and fourth a few times. He’s the Martin Scorsese of NBA MVP candidates! And this year has been more of the same—a double-double average, two-plus steals a game, shooting over 50%. Ho-hum, rinse and repeat.

Why He Won’t: Blake Griffin and/or DeAndre Jordan showing up to play Ralph Nader in the race. Griffin finished third in the balloting a year ago, and Jordan has been playing out of his mind this season. Could make things a bit awkward come awards season, since they don’t do a “Most Valuable Trio.”

How do those odds look now? If they’ve gotten any better, it’s not by much. If he wins, it will be—like Scorsese—a lifetime achievement award for cranking out the same old excellence we haven’t gotten around to (completely) lauding yet. Not to criticize, of course — like I said, it’s kind of mind-blowing that Paul has never won an MVP award.

But this year might be the cultural hurricane. You’ve got Rose part-timing it, Durant and Westbrook missing for extended stretches, and the Lakers abdicating their position as the Culturally Relevant Sports Team in Los Angeles for the first time in decades.

The pieces are all falling into place for the Year of CP3. You’d be crazy to suggest that it’s not possible.

3. James Harden

(AP)

Preseason Odds: 30–1

Why He’ll Win: The Beard is setting career-highs in rebounds and assists, and still scoring his usual 25 per game while leading the Rockets to a hot start. He checks every box you want checked for an MVP.

Why He Won’t: Defense. Harden seems to have made progress on that side of the court, but it’s not a very noticeable type of progress, and his reputation as a defensive sieve will not do him any favors during awards season.

How do those odds look now? Like a big, juicy prime rib marked 50% off at the store. Check this comparison out, per Basketball Reference: