In 2013, turnout was highest in Manhattan, where 29 percent of registered voters cast a ballot, followed by Brooklyn, with 24-percent turnout, Queens with 21-percent turnout, the Bronx with 19 percent, and Staten Island, with 18 percent. | Getty Images 11 things to watch in Tuesday's primary elections

1) How low will turnout be? We’ve been talking for months about how dull this year’s primary races have been so far, particularly compared to 2013’s fascinating crew of candidates. (No sexting scandals this year, yet.) But even with the fever surrounding the 2013 primaries, turnout was a grim 23 percent.

In 2013, turnout was highest in Manhattan, where 29 percent of registered voters cast a ballot, followed by Brooklyn, with 24-percent turnout, Queens with 21-percent turnout, the Bronx with 19 percent, and Staten Island, with 18 percent. Political scientists say they’re not expecting a particularly engaged electorate today.


“I have a feeling the numbers will be abysmal,” Fordham political science professor Christina Greer told POLITICO New York.

The CUNY Graduate Center’s Steven Romalewski had a specific prediction: “On turnout, I think there are a couple of interesting angles. Citywide, given all accounts of how the mayoral race has been going, I don’t think we’ll get to the 20 percent that we had in 2013. But hopefully turnout won’t fall below the meager 10 percent that we had in 2009. My prediction splits the difference, at 15 percent.”

The conventional wisdom is that de Blasio wins, handily. But conventional wisdom is often overrated. In order to win, people still have to get up, go stand in line and vote.

2) How neighborhoods vote: An interesting subset of turnout will be looking at how different neighborhoods voted, especially compared to how they voted for de Blasio four years ago. In 2013, about 43 percent of de Blasio’s votes came from white communities, while 26.6 percent came from predominantly African American communities, according to the CUNY Graduate Center.

Polling consistently shows a significant racial divide among New Yorkers over de Blasio. Black and Hispanic Democratic voters have continued to support him, while his approval rating among white voters has fallen. How well will de Blasio do in the neighborhoods that supported him four years ago?

3) Margin of victory: After de Blasio won the primary and general elections in 2013, he spoke often of the mandate he’d been given by voters, to carry out the promises he’d made during the campaign on universal pre-K, reforming policing and building more affordable housing. If he wins, how big of a mandate will voters give him this year?

There is no doubt that de Blasio is looking to run up the score, especially since he’s facing token opposition. As of the last campaign filing, de Blasio had spent $2.7 million on the primary, which didn’t include a $1 million ad buy. Compare that to his strongest challenger, former City Councilman and third-time mayoral candidate Sal Albanese, who spent only $185,922.

Albanese got less than 1 percent of the vote in the crowded Democratic primary in 2013, but he’s now running as the main alternative to de Blasio in a universe where the mayor has made more enemies.

“We haven't had a two-term Democratic mayor since [Ed] Koch,” Greer said in email to POLITICO New York. “Polling says [de Blasio] is ‘unpopular’ yet no substantive candidate chose to run against him and it feels like no one besides you, me, and a few others are actually paying attention to the race. I wonder if some voters will have a ‘protest vote’ that helps Sal (similarly to the way folks voting for Thompson in 2009 when Bloomberg ran for his third term)."

It’s not a perfect comparison, but in 2009, then-Comptroller Bill Thompson was by far the strongest Democrat in the primary to run against then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg running for his third term. But then-City Councilman Tony Avella still got 21 percent of the vote to Thompson's 71 percent. Thompson didn’t have the benefit of being an incumbent mayor, so look to see if de Blasio bests Thompson's 2009 number.

4) The Brooklyn D.A.’s race: Six candidates are vying to win a full term to this seat, which has been held by Acting D.A. Eric Gonzalez since D.A. Ken Thompson died of cancer last year. Gonzalez is widely considered the front-runner. But he faces a vast field of other candidates — Patricia Gatling, Ama Dwimoh, Anne Swern, Marc Fliedner and Vincent Gentile. As the Village Voice reported, whoever wins the race has the potential to have a massive impact on the lives of millions of Brooklynites, whether it means deciding to end reliance on cash bail, continuing or ending the office’s Convictions Review Unit started under former D.A. Thompson, or deciding to aggressively pursue cases of prosecutorial misconduct.

5) Close council races — Hiram Monserrate vs. Francisco Moya: This is the race that seems to be giving New York’s political establishment the most heartburn. If you don’t know about it, here’s the deal: Hiram Monserrate is a former City Council member and former Queens state senator who was accused of slashing his girlfriend’s face with a piece of glass. He was convicted of a lesser assault charge for dragging her through an apartment building on the way to the hospital and was later expelled from the Senate. He and former state Sen. Pedro Espada (later convicted on corruption charges) played leading roles in a coup that briefly handed control of the State Senate from Democrats to Republicans in the summer of 2009. In 2012, Monserrate was convicted on mail fraud and mail fraud conspiracy charges in connection with what federal prosecutors said was a scheme to launder discretionary funding through a nonprofit to people working on behalf of his campaign. He pleaded guilty and went to jail.

All that notwithstanding — Monserrate is seen as a possible victor in the race for the Council’s 21st district, in the seat being vacated by Julissa Ferreras-Copeland. The outgoing Councilwoman surprised everyone this spring when she announced she wouldn’t seek another term in a year when she was expected to seek the Council speakership. His opponent, Assemblyman Francisco Moya, has sewn up all the institutional support. But apparently a lack of institutional support is part of what Monserrate’s supporters seem to like about him. It’s an insider vs. outsider race.

— Laurie Cumbo vs. Ede Fox: This Brooklyn council race is being widely cast as a referendum on one of Mayor de Blasio’s redevelopment projects, and more broadly, on the rapid pace of gentrification in the Council’s 25th district, which covers Crown Heights, Fort Greene, Prospect Heights and Clinton Hill.

First term incumbent Laurie Cumbo is in a Groundhog Day battle, fighting against Ede Fox, the same challenger she faced in 2013, for control of her seat. Cumbo hesitated in opposing the city’s Bedford-Union Armory project, a plan de Blasio’s administration proposed in 2015 to turn a vacant armory into a mixed-use site, with some affordable housing, some market rate housing, office space and room for community uses. The plan has sparked a major backlash from some residents and housing advocates who don’t think the development will be affordable enough for the neighborhood’s current residents. Cumbo, under pressure, has since come out against the project. De Blasio sees Cumbo’s reelection as critical to the success of the project and, as Sally Goldenberg reported, has been working furiously behind the scenes to help keep her in the seat.

— Carlos Menchaca vs. Assemblyman Felix Ortiz and Sara Gonzalez: First-term incumbent Menchaca, one of the Council’s youngest members, ousted former Councilwoman Sara Gonzalez in what was widely seen as an upset amid discontent in the district over her handling of the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. Now Menchaca is facing a challenge from both Gonzalez and Democratic Assemblyman Felix Ortiz.

6) The fate of the incumbents: Several other sitting Council members are facing primary challenges, including Margaret Chin, Helen Rosenthal and Bill Perkins in Manhattan, Fernando Cabrera in the Bronx, Peter Koo and Elizabeth Crowley in Queens, Mathieu Eugene and Antonio Reynoso in Brooklyn and Debi Rose in Staten Island. Look to see if any of these incumbents fall.

7) Invaders from the North: This year saw a mass exodus of Albany lawmakers looking to run for City office. Who could blame them, really? The pay is better, the commute is less insufferable, and you’re not automatically painted with the brush of corruption that’s made Albany a metonym for the seedy underbelly of politics.

— Mark Gjonaj vs. Marjorie Velazquez: Assemblyman Mark Gjonaj has broken the previous all-time spending record in a Council race in his effort to win the seat being vacated by Bronx Councilman Jimmy Vacca, blowing through at least $716,469, what the Daily News determined is "the most spending on a Council bid since 1989, when Campaign Finance Board records first began." Gjonaj has the backing of Gov. Andrew Cuomo and the Bronx County party. Mayor de Blasio hasn’t endorsed in this race, but this is a seat where it will be interesting to see how far money and endorsements go. Velazquez has the backing of Vacca, and The New York Times Editorial Board , which criticized Gjonaj’s record in Albany as “modest” and cast some editorial side-eye at his “connections to the old Bronx political machine.”

— Race to replace Melissa Mark-Viverito: Another Albany legislator looking to come downstate (and secure a higher paycheck without the commute) is Assemblyman Robert Rodriguez. With the support of the Bronx county organization and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, he's running to succeed Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, who is term-limited. Mark-Viverito's choice is Diana Ayala, a longtime aide of hers. Ayala also has de Blasio’s backing. The race is expected to be a close one, pitting foes de Blasio and Cuomo against each other.

— Annabel Palma’s open seat: Colorful state Sen. Rev. Ruben Diaz Sr. — a cowboy-hat wearing, weekly screed-writing, anti-gay marriage Democrat who also happens to be the father of the Bronx Borough president — is running for the Council District 18 seat, which he’s favored to win against a field of youthful and less well-known challengers, including 27-year-old Amanda Farias, 30-year-old de Blasio aide, Elvin Garcia, Michael Belzer and William Moore.

If Diaz, Sr. wins, it will bring a conservative Democrat who has flirted openly with caucusing with Senate Republicans into the overwhelmingly Democratic Council.

8) How did the Bronx and Queens county parties do? The outcome of several competitive City Council races will have a big impact on who will later become the Council speaker. Two factions are betting their political fortunes on the right outcome: the Bronx and Queens county Democratic party organizations.

After being embarrassed with their speaker’s pick last time around, both machines are determined to choose the speaker this time and that means their candidates need to make a good showing Tuesday night.

To run the table for speaker, the counties are hoping to have at least the 23 votes in their delegations ready to deliver. This means winning the eight open and competitive seats. But if they have a bad showing they might have as few as 15. Officials at the two county organizations say they are confident that all of the incumbents will align with their respective parties.

9) Did endorsements matter? In 2013, mayoral candidate Bill Thompson had the backing of some of the city’s most prominent black and Hispanic leaders and the 200,000 member United Federation of Teachers, but still lost to de Blasio in many of the city’s black and Hispanic neighborhoods. Likewise, candidate Christine Quinn earned the endorsement of three of the city’s biggest newspapers, including The New York Times, the Daily News and the Post. She lost.

In close races, like the one between Diana Ayala and Robert Rodriguez, where labor union endorsements are split, will the backing of prominent political figures make a significant difference? De Blasio is backing Ayala in this race — will it help? In the Velazquez vs. Gjonaj race, Velazquez has sewn up the support of more political clubs, while Gjonaj has a slight edge in the number of labor endorsements. Velazquez has the Times and the Amsterdam News. Gjonaj has the New York Post. Which papers still pack a punch?

And will de Blasio’s backing help the candidates in other close races? He’s offered up endorsements for Carlina Rivera, Bill Perkins, Antonio Reynoso and Francisco Moya. He’s also offered his support to incumbents facing tough races: Cumbo, Mathieu Eugene, and Debi Rose.

10) The gender balance? Women make up 13 of the 51 City Council members right now, but five of the current female members are term-limited out. Only four of the races to replace them have female candidates. In open seats where male Council members are being term-limited out, women candidates are running in competitive races. Because most of the Council is made up of Democrats, the primary will largely determine the composition of the Council for the next four years.

11) How will the Board of Elections perform? Who could forget last year’s presidential election, when tens of thousands of voters had their names improperly removed from voting rolls, and the Board of Elections of the City of New York disqualified more than 78,000 ballots cast by people who couldn’t find their names in the voter rolls, thereby nullifying their votes?

Everyone was angry, investigations ensued and voters’ names should have been added back to the rolls. But problems crop up nearly every election because it’s so difficult to make changes at the board. That’s in part because the Board is like New York’s answer to the Deep State — the commissioners are political appointees, and the Board’s staff report to them, under a process controlled by New York State election law, which few people in Albany are eager to amend. So, what fresh hell will the Board visit on New York City voters this time? Or, are we selling them short and everything will be hunky-dory today?

Brendan Cheney and Conor Skelding contributed to this report.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story mischaracterized the assault charges brought against Hiram Monserrate.