This morning the BLS reported a decrease of 125,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease 225,000 temporary census workers. Last month there was an increase of 411,000 temporary census workers. Next month will also likely be negative due to the dismissal of more temporary workers.



Excluding the census effect, the economy added 100,000 jobs but interestingly 20,500 of them were private temporary jobs. Temporary jobs have become a way of life.



Excluding the census effect, government added 17,000 jobs. That is going to change in the coming months (possibly dramatically depending on Congressional stimulus actions) as states are forced to layoff workers for budgetary reasons.



That will be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates Jobs. Unfortunately, politicians and Keynesian clown economists will not see it that way.



Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box - Birth Death Model added 145,000 jobs.



However, as I have pointed out many times before, the Birth/Death numbers cannot be subtracted straight up to get a raw number. It contributed to this month's employment total for sure, but the BLS will not disclose by how much.



On the whole, this was an OK jobs report (depending on your expectations), yet perhaps as good as it gets for a while.



The unemployment rate dropped only because of a declining participation rate. Last month the number of unemployed was 15 million. This month it was 14.6 million. Clearly the economy did not add 400,000 jobs.



The drop in participation rate was not that surprising because (as I expected) some of the long-term unemployed stopped looking jobs, or opted for retirement.



Nonetheless, I still do not think the top in the unemployment rate is in and expect it may rise substantially later this year as the recovery heads into a coma and states are forced to cut back workers.



Employment and Recessions



Calculated risk has a great chart showing the effects of census hiring as well as the extremely weak hiring in this recovery.







click on chart for sharper image



The dotted lines tell the real story about how pathetic a jobs recovery this has been. Bear in mind it has taken $trillions in stimulus to produce this.



June 2010 Report



Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) June 2010 Employment Report.



Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflected a decrease (-225,000) in the number of temporary employees working on Census 2010. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 83,000.



Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted







Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Seasonally Adjusted



Since September 2009, temporary help services employment has risen by 362,000.



Establishment Data







click on chart for sharper image



Highlights





125,000 jobs were added

22,000 construction jobs were lost

9,000 manufacturing jobs were added



91,000 service providing jobs were added

1,000 retail trade jobs were added

46,000 professional and business services jobs were added

17,000 education and health services jobs were added

37,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were added



208,000 government jobs were added

Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours

Birth Death Model Revisions 2009





Birth Death Model Revisions 2010

Birth/Death Model Revisions

BLS Black Box

Household Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 14.6 million, and the unemployment rate, at 9.5 percent,edged down in June.



In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was unchanged at 6.8 million. These individuals made up 45.5 percent of unemployed persons.



The number of unemployed reentrants to the labor force fell by 286,000 in May, offsetting an increase in April.



The civilian labor force participation rate fell by 0.3 percentage point in June to 64.7 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.5 percent, edged down over the month.



The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 8.6 million, was little changed over the month but was down by 525,000 over the past 2 months. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.



[Mish Note: In January the number was 8.3 million]



Persons Not in the Labor Force



In June, about 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, an increase of 415,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the

survey.

Table A-8 Part Time Status

The key take-away is

there are 8,627,00 of workers whose hours may rise before those companies start hiring more workers.

Table A-15

Grim Statistics

Recap