Peru 28,000 monthly deaths Jan. Dec. Deaths in 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Bolivia 17,000 monthly deaths Jan. Dec. Mumbai, India 13,000 monthly deaths Jan. Dec. Chile 3,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Colombia 7,000 monthly deaths Jan. Dec. South Africa 5,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Jakarta, Indonesia 4,000 monthly burials Jan. Dec. Brazil 33,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Mexico City, Mexico 4,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Moscow, Russia 15,000 monthly deaths Jan. Dec. Italy No data 82,000 monthly deaths Jan. Dec. Ecuador 20,000 monthly deaths Jan. Dec. U.K. 24,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. U.S. 79,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Spain 19,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. France 19,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Belgium No data 4,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Netherlands 5,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Germany 15,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Sweden 2,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Switzerland 1,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Ireland 500 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Austria 1,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Portugal 2,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Istanbul, Turkey No data 2,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Norway 500 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Denmark 500 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Finland 1,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Israel 1,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Thailand 47,000 monthly deaths Jan. Dec. Tokyo, Japan 12,000 monthly deaths Jan. Dec. South Korea 28,000 weekly deaths Jan. Dec. Note: Bolivia’s Civil Registry recorded almost no deaths in April due to the closure of government offices during a lockdown. Officials said least some of the deaths that occurred in April could have been registered in later months.

At least 263,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 32 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis.

Over the last several months, far more people have died in most of these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed. These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway.

How excess deaths compare with reported Covid-19 deaths Area PCT. above normal Excess

deaths − Reported Covid-19 deaths = Difference U.S.

March 1 - Aug. 22 19% 248,400 − 176,247 = 72,100 Peru

March - August 147% 77,300 − 19,021 = 58,300 Mexico City

March 2 - Aug. 23 94% 31,200 − 8,304 = 22,900 Ecuador

March - July 93% 28,100 − 5,702 = 22,400 Spain

March 2 - Sept. 6 26% 50,000 − 29,484 = 20,500 South Africa

March 4 - Aug. 26 11% 28,300 − 13,502 = 14,800 Bolivia

March - July 84% 15,500 − 2,894 = 12,600 Brazil

March 1 - July 25 19% 95,900 − 86,449 = 9,500 Italy

March - June 22% 43,700 − 34,747 = 9,000 U.K.

March 6 - Aug. 28 24% 61,700 − 56,357 = 5,300 Moscow

March - July 25% 12,400 − 8,529 = 3,800 Jakarta

March - May 46% 4,200 − 520 = 3,600 Mumbai, India

March - July 25% 8,900 − 6,350 = 2,600 Netherlands

March 2 - Aug. 23 12% 8,500 − 6,200 = 2,300 Portugal

March 2 - July 19 7% 3,000 − 1,689 = 1,300 Istanbul

March 2 - Aug. 9 13% 4,100 − 3,506 = 600 Austria

March 2 - Aug. 23 3% 1,200 − 732 = 400 Finland

March 2 - Aug. 23 3% 600 − 334 = 300 Sweden

March 2 - Aug. 30 15% 6,000 − 5,827 = 200 Israel

March 2 - Aug. 10 4% 800 − 613 = 200 Chile

March 2 - Aug. 30 19% 11,000 − 11,244 = — Norway

March 2 - Aug. 23 Normal <0 − 264 = — Ireland

March 2 - June 16 12% 1,100 − 1,705 = — Belgium

March 2 - Aug. 23 18% 9,100 − 9,870 = — Denmark

March 2 - Aug. 30 Normal <0 − 624 = — Switzerland

March 2 - Aug. 23 2% 600 − 1,722 = — Colombia

March 2 - Aug. 23 14% 16,600 − 17,803 = — Tokyo

March - July Normal <0 − 332 = — South Korea

February - June Normal <0 − 282 = — Thailand

March - April Normal <0 − 54 = — France

March 2 - Aug 23 9% 25,500 − 30,510 = — Germany

March 2 - Aug. 9 Normal <0 − 9,260 = — Note: Excess deaths are estimates that include deaths from Covid-19 and other causes. Reported Covid-19 deaths reflect official coronavirus deaths during the period when all-cause mortality data is available, including figures that were later revised. Reported Covid-19 deaths in Istanbul are estimated based on the government’s statement that 60 percent of the country’s cases are in the city.

Mortality data in the middle of a pandemic is not perfect. In most places, the disparities between the official death counts and the total rise in deaths reflect limited testing for the virus rather than intentional undercounting. Officially, more than 900,000 people have died of the coronavirus worldwide as of September 11.

But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, researchers say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.

“Whatever number is reported on a given day is going to be a gross underestimate,” said Tim Riffe, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany. “In a lot of places the pandemic has been going on for long enough that there has been sufficient time for late death registrations to come in, giving us a more accurate picture of what the mortality really was.”

Where excess deaths are still above normal

The virus was last to hit Latin America, and excess deaths are still climbing in several countries. Ecuador recorded about 28,100 more deaths than usual compared to the same period in the last three years — about five times higher than the reported number of Covid-19 deaths in the country during that time. And in Peru, more than 37,000 excess deaths were recorded from April to June.

Brazil 95,900+ excess deaths from March 1 to July 25 33,000 weekly deaths 16,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Peru 77,300+ excess deaths from March to August 28,000 monthly deaths 14,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Mexico City, Mexico 31,200+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 23 4,000 weekly deaths 2,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 South Africa 28,300+ excess deaths from March 4 to Aug. 26 16,000 weekly deaths 8,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Ecuador 28,100+ excess deaths from March to July 20,000 monthly deaths 10,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Colombia 16,600+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 23 7,000 weekly deaths 3,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Bolivia 15,500+ excess deaths from March to July 17,000 monthly deaths 8,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Moscow, Russia 12,400+ excess deaths from March to July 15,000 monthly deaths 7,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Chile 11,000+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 30 3,000 weekly deaths 1,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Jakarta, Indonesia 4,200+ excess deaths from March to May 4,000 monthly burials 2,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Portugal 3,000+ excess deaths from March 2 to July 19 3,000 weekly deaths 1,000 Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks; Data from weeks 1 to 10 in 2020 was not collected for Mexico City; Mexico City’s 2016-2018 death counts are based on mortality data released by the National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics (INEGI). Its 2019-2020 data is based on death certificate records obtained via the General Directorate of the Civil Registry. Bolivia’s Civil Registry recorded almost no deaths in April due to the closure of government offices during a lockdown. Officials said least some of the deaths that occurred in April could have been registered in later months.

These estimates were made for each country by comparing the total number of people who died this year to the number of deaths that would be expected given local mortality trends, adjusted to account for changes over time. The Economist is also tracking these deaths, known as excess deaths, in a similar way.

It is unusual for mortality data to be released so quickly, demographers say, but many countries are working to provide more comprehensive and timely information because of the urgency of the coronavirus outbreak. The data is limited and, if anything, excess deaths are underestimated because not all deaths have been reported.

“At this stage, it’s a partial snapshot,” said Patrick Gerland, a demographer at the United Nations. “It’s one view of the problem that reflects that most acute side of the situation, primarily through the hospital-based system.”

That is likely to change.

“In the next couple of months,” Mr. Gerland said, “a much clearer picture will be possible.”

Where excess deaths have returned to normal

Throughout March and early April, many countries across Europe reported clear deviations from normal patterns of deaths, according to data released by the European Mortality Monitoring Project, a research group that collects weekly mortality data from 24 European countries.

But over the last few weeks many countries have returned to normal levels of death.

U.K. 61,700+ excess deaths from March 6 to Aug. 28 12,000 24,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Spain 50,000+ excess deaths from March 2 to Sept. 6 9,000 19,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Italy 43,700+ excess deaths from March to June No data 41,000 82,000 monthly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 France 25,500+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug 23 9,000 19,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Belgium 9,100+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 23 No data 2,000 4,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Mumbai, India 8,900+ excess deaths from March to July 6,000 13,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Netherlands 8,500+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 23 2,000 5,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Sweden 6,000+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 30 1,000 2,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Istanbul, Turkey 4,100+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 9 No data 1,000 2,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Austria 1,200+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 23 1,000 2,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Ireland 1,100+ excess deaths from March 2 to June 16 500 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Switzerland 600+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 23 1,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks.

In countries like Belgium and France, authorities have worked to include Covid-19 deaths outside of hospitals in their daily death reports, or adjusted the overall Covid-19 death totals once a death is confirmed in a place like a nursing or retirement home.

Other agencies, like Britain’s Office for National Statistics, release mortality data after death certificates have been processed, confirming those that mention Covid-19. This provides a more accurate, if delayed, account of mortality than the hospital figures released each day by Public Health England.

Not all countries saw excess deaths

In a handful of countries there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. The reasons for this are varied and will become clearer in the months ahead as countries process and certify deaths.

In Norway, Denmark and Finland, demographers say the low mortality is due in part to a less severe flu season this winter — but also because these countries were quick to implement severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain.

Israel hasn’t seen many more deaths than normal through early July, the latest data available, but a recent spike in infections may raise the level of excess deaths in the coming weeks.

Israel 800+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 10 1,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Finland 600+ excess deaths from March 2 to Aug. 23 1,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Norway No excess deaths 1,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Denmark No excess deaths 500 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Tokyo, Japan No excess deaths 6,000 12,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 South Korea No excess deaths 15,000 31,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Germany No excess deaths 13,000 26,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Thailand No excess deaths 23,000 47,000 weekly deaths Jan. March Dec. 2020 Expected deaths in 2020 Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks.

Age breakdowns in mortality data will also provide a clearer picture of the role of Covid-19 in excess deaths. Using relative age-standardized mortality rates, Britain’s Office for National Statistics found that Spain had the highest rate of all European countries during the peak of the pandemic.

Even taking into account differences in mortality by age, experts say the death toll to date could have been much worse.

“Today’s rise in all-cause mortality takes place under conditions of extraordinary measures, such as social distancing, lockdowns, closed borders and increased medical care, at least some which have positive impacts,” said Vladimir Shkolnikov, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “It is likely that without these measures, the current death toll would be even higher.”

Read more about the methodology and download data for excess mortality from The New York Times on GitHub.

To estimate expected deaths, we fit a linear model to reported deaths in each country from 2015 to January 2020. The model has two components — a linear time trend to account for demographic changes and a smoothing spline to account for seasonal variation. For countries limited to monthly data, the model includes month as a fixed effect rather than using a smoothing spline.

Some countries have less historical data available. For countries with three or fewer years of data, the model uses a simple average of deaths in the observed years. For the United Kingdom, the model accounts for the number of bank holidays in a given week, since deaths are not registered during bank holidays.