As Virginia tries to get through this weekend – and the next week or so, and at least to the postseason – with Justin Anderon’s limbs and internal organs still attached to his body and intact, everyone else, seemingly, is jostling for ACC Tournament seeding position.

But that shouldn’t detract from the fun of the best rivalry in sports, which is happening this weekend. That’s right, Wake Forest at Boston College. #TheRivalry on Twitter is what you want to use there, and certainly none of us will be missing that one. Yes, people, I’m aware that Duke-Carolina Part II is this weekend. But excuse me if I can’t get as excited about a game where the two teams have already met once. Yawn.

SYRACUSE (18-12, 9-8) AT NC STATE (18-12, 9-8)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: CBS

#ANALYSIS

So now that we’ve established that Syracuse is still trying, I guess, the only things left to figure out are A. Will it matter? B. Is Syracuse a marquee enough opponent to get NC State excited? and of course C. Will we get this again?

My only regret in this life is that I did not spend ACC Media Day writing a longform piece about only this possession. OK, so “real” basketball. I guess. The biggest thing that stands out to me is turnovers. Syracuse has forced those very well with that long, aggressive, active zone defense, and NC State at times has been a bit careless with the ball. But Syracuse does almost nothing else in conference play on offense well, except get to the foul line. They’re pretty good on defense, though, and so NC State is going to need to be patient and work for the shots it wants instead of taking rushed shots. We have TALKED about this, Wolfpack.

PTP-ERS

Michael Gbinije. It’s tough for the junior transfer to have the burden on him that he’s had, particularly since Trevor Cooney went into a deep slumber and freshman Kaleb Joseph has found point guard duties to be a bit much for him. But after a really nice stretch of games in ACC play, Gbinije is has 44 points in the last four games on 13-of-48 shooting and is 4-of-20 from three. What’s worse is he has 13 assists to 15 turnovers in that stretch, and seven to 12 in the last three. Syracuse has lost three of four, and that’s not a coincidence. He has struggled against the league’s best defensive teams, and when NC State wants to be, it’s up there.

Ralston Turner. If the fifth-year senior’s game against Clemson doesn’t epitomize NC State, I don’t know what does. He had 23 points on 4-of-12 shooting and was 12-of-15 from the foul line, adding eight rebounds. That part was great. But he played iffy defense, including fouling two Clemson players in transition on three-point plays twice as NC State was trying to close it out. So there’s that part. And here are his numbers in ACC wins and losses, if you need any more proof the Pack needs him on and engaged:

Wins: 44-101 FG (43.6%), 28-65 3-pt (43.1%), 28-33 FT (84.8%), 144 pts (16.0 ppg)

Losses: 33-97 FG (34.0%), 22-71 3-pt (31.0%), 5- 8 FT (62.5%), 93 pts (11.6 ppg)

TEMPO-FREE

Syracuse hasn’t lost more than two games in a row this season. It has lost two in a row coming into this one. And part of the reason is that it had its worst offensive efficiency of the season against Virginia (78.3), and its worst since Feb. 23, 2013 (a 77.1 against Georgetown). … NC State’s swings on offense and defense from game to game at times this season have been dramatic. But none so dramatic as the last three – after holding North Carolina to a 76.1 OE, they allowed Boston College to put up a 121.8. That’s an enormous swing. And then in the next game, Clemson was back down to 94.4. NC State’s offense, though, actually hasn't been above 102 in OE since February 21 (Virginia Tech) and has been over 120 just one other time in ACC play (versus Duke) after doing it five times in non-conference.

NARRATIVES

Syracuse Win: All you do is try to ruin things for others Syracuse

Syracuse Loss: Don’t worry, football starts soon- oh.

NC State Win: Lose at Boston College, win at Clemson and now at home against Syracuse to close out the season. Because why not. You keep doing you, and I’ll stop trying to figure you out.

NC State Loss: What did I tell you about playing with you food

PREDICTION

NC State, 72-63. Don’t get cute with this, Wolfpack.

NO. 3 DUKE (27-3, 14-3) AT NO. 19 NORTH CAROLINA (21-9, 11-6)

Time: 9:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Well, both of these teams are coming off of destroying an opponent, so that’s something. But the first meeting between the two teams wasn’t all that long ago, really – just four games have been played since for each team. Duke has won all four, and it had won the five leading up to it, too – so that’s 10 in a row, if you’re scoring at home.

But in its last seven games (after the throttling of Notre Dame at home), the average Ken Pom rank of Duke’s opponents has been 87.1. And that includes No. 13 North Carolina. The Tar Heels have lost five of nine against a tougher slate, BUT it includes losses to No. 76 Pitt and No. 42 NC State, and they haven’t beaten a team in Ken Pom’s top 50 since January 14 (NC State). Their last top-25 win came over No. 19 Louisville on January 10.

In other words, here’s the deal: North Carolina’s going to have to defend better and use its depth to its advantage, so everyone who plays will have to give them something to beat a team this good. They’ll have to take care of the ball, and avoid fouls. Oh, and hit shots. That one is particularly important.

Duke has to take a bit better care of the ball, too – it hasn’t mattered, but the Blue Devils are turning it over on 17 percent or more of their possessions in four of the last six games, including 19.1 percent against UNC. Duke’s made it for it by shooting extremely well – their eFG percentage hasn’t dropped under 50 percent in a game since Jan. 13 – but if shots don’t drop as reliably for whatever reason, they can’t waste possessions with turnovers. And they’ll have to do a better job on the defensive glass than they did last time against UNC.

PTP-ERS

Jahlil Okafor. He sprained his ankle against North Carolina in the first meeting, but he wasn’t tearing it up before the injury, and adrenaline helped propel him to a 12-point, 13-rebound performance in the overtime win. But his 77 ORtg remains his lowest of the season, as he was 6-of-11 shooting and 0-of-6 from the foul line, dishing out three assists but turning it over five times. He’s managed to stay out of foul trouble the last four games he’s played in, and look, Duke whooped Wake with just a season-low six points from him, so far be it for me to suggest he’s going to be the key one way or the other. But if he has a better game than he did last time against North Carolina, even as he’s still dealing with that ankle, suffice it to say Duke might have a bit of an easier time.

Marcus Paige. Or any North Carolina guard, really. Look, North Carolina could have – and arguably should have – won that game with Paige being a veritable non-factor. But I would advise against attempting that again. North Carolina’s starting backcourt was a combined 4-of-20 shooting while their teammates combined to shoot 34-of-63. They also had four of North Carolina’s seven turnovers and just seven of their 90 points. Paige took 11 shots and made two, including two looks at potential game-winners (or game-tie-ers), and had three assists to two turnovers. He’s going to be guarded similarly to last time, so he needs to know how to react. He got help in the last meeting with Duke – now it’s on him to be a help to his teammates, too.

TEMPO-FREE

The second meeting between these two schools has not been decided by single digits since 2009. There was a stretch there, from 2003-09 – seven seasons – where the most any of the regular-season games were decided by was 14 points. Just three of the 14 meetings were decided by double digits in that span, and the final meeting of the year was often equal or superior to the first. Then from 2010-12, four of the six games were decided by double digits (two wins by each team). But even so, for five straight seasons leading up to this one, the first meeting has always been closer than the second. The average margin of victory in Game 1 has been 6.0 points. The average margin in Game 2 has been 18.4 points. The closest Game 2 in that stretch was last year in Cameron, when Duke lit its own nets on fire NBA Jam style and North Carolina lost by 12.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win: HEY LOOK VIRGINIA IMMA LET Y’ALL FINISH BUT DUKE HAD THE HARDEST ACC REGULAR-SEASON SCHEDULE OF ALL TIME

Duke Loss: I’m not saying. I’m just saying.

North Carolina Win: This seems like it will fit the reaction of North Carolina fans.

North Carolina Loss: No biggie it’s whatever get ‘em next year right

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 83-78. I honestly have no idea, so I’m going to cop out and use Ken Pom. I did predict in the preseason that these two teams would split, and obviously things change, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Tar Heels were able to pull this one out.

___

MIAMI (19-11, 9-8) AT VIRGINIA TECH (10-20, 2-15)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: RSN

#ANALYSIS

Well, NC State fans, you should track the score on this one as you’re watching the Wolfpack play – if Virginia Tech manages to win somehow, which isn’t incredibly far –fetched, and NC State wins, the Wolfpack will get the 6-seed and avoid Duke’s side of the ACC Tournament bracket. But Miami and Virginia Tech fans care not about such things.

Every time you think Virginia Tech is ready to make a big step forward – they played Syracuse close at home, then got blown out by Notre Dame in their next home game. Then they narrowly lost to Virginia at home, beat Pitt at home, then lost to a mediocre Florida State team. Then they beat Georgia Tech at home and played Duke into overtime, but lost by seven to Boston College. So there’s no telling. But Miami absolutely has to have this one to have any semblance of a chance to make the NCAA Tournament. Gotta make shots, Canes.

PTP-ERS

Davon Reed. Assuming Angel Rodriguez is still limited in this one, which is likely, Reed’s going to have to have the kind of game he did against Pitt. Or at least something close to it. He was excellent, finishing with 19 points on 7-of-8 shooting to go with three rebounds, three assists, two steals and no turnovers. And he’s not even playing point guard in relief of Rodriguez. No, more often than not, Reed has been the 3 or the 4, and he’s a matchup problem. Miami is 4-2 in its last six games, and he’s averaging 16.3 points in the wins and 1.0 in the losses. Seriously.

Anyone not named Adam Smith. No, seriously. Anyone. He had 22 of the Hokies’ 59 points against Boston College on 7-of-16 shooting; his teammates combined shot 14-of-38. At Virginia, he had 19 of the Hokies’ 57 points on 5-of-9 shooting (his teammates shot 13-of-36). When Virginia Tech is going well, someone – literally, like, anyone – else is scoring. And lately, that hasn’t been happening. It did against Duke, but then everyone else disappeared in the next two games. They’re going to have to come back.

TEMPO-FREE

Here’s a stat for you – in Miami’s last four games, it is 2-2. In the losses, it has held opponents to their sixth or seventh worse offensive efficiencies of the season (Louisville’s sixth-worst and North Carolina’s seventh-worst). But in the wins, it has allowed high ones, a 114.2 to FSU (its fourth-highest of the year) and a 112.2 to Pitt (its 14th-highest this year and second-highest in a loss). The difference has been that Miami’s OE was good - a 120.1 against FSU and 119.3 vs. Pitt compared to 89.6 against Louisville and 90.1 against North Carolina. So, um, offense? … Virginia Tech has had an eFG percentage of less than 46 percent six times in ACC play, and just three in the last 12 games - one was against Boston College on Monday, and the other was at Miami (42.4 percent, its worst eFG percentage in ACC play and second-worst of the season).

NARRATIVES

Miami Win: Congratulations you’re seemingly the only bubble team in the conference who doesn’t hate itself

Miami Loss: Miami has secretly kind of been the worst this year. OK, not the worst. But bad. And that was before Angel Rodriguez got hurt. Just….disappointing. Are we allowed to say that? Well, I’m saying it.

Virginia Tech Win: This version of Leo is confused. And could also probably get at least 20 minutes off the bench for the Hokies.

Virginia Tech Loss: Oh, Virginia Tech. You have Duke and Virginia on the ropes at home, then lose two in a row to Boston College and Miami to close out the season? Really?

PREDICTION

Virginia Tech, 67-62. Because I don’t believe in NC State…..Stuff.

PITTSBURGH (19-12, 8-9) AT FLORIDA STATE (15-15, 7-10)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN2

#ANALYSIS

The first meeting between these two feels so long ago now, and both teams were a lot different. Well, kind of. Pitt was okay and FSU was struggling. That’s probably still true, although now both are struggling. Pitt’s NCAA Tournament hopes are all but shot now that they’ve lost at Wake and at Miami, but what does FSU have left to play for, other than pride?

They are at home. FSU’s going to have to defense a bit better than it’s been though – FSU’s last two opponents have put up some of their best numbers all season against the Seminoles, and Pitt’s offense is certainly capable of being dangerous. In fact, the last two OE’s allowed by FSU (120.1 to Miami and 118.5 to Louisville) are the highest FSU had allowed SINCE Pitt’s 119.7 back on January 14. So. If Pitt does what it did last time – get offensive boards and avoid turnovers – it should win comfortably. If not, well.

PTP-ERS

Michael Young. Jamel Artis has been the guy for Pitt through most of ACC play, but Young has really come on, scoring exactly 22 points in three straight games (so 66 total) on 21-of-34 shooting to go with 24 rebounds, seven assists and just three turnovers. Now, Pitt has lost two of those games in spite of his great performances, but he’s been over 100 in ORtg in eight of Pitt’s nine ACC wins and below 100 in four of nine losses. He’s a matchup problem at center for FSU as well because he can go out to the three-point line.

Phil Cofer. The freshman’s career high came against Pitt earlier this year, although that was still when he was playing relatively well. He had 21 points on 7-of-13 shooting and added 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals and a block in 30 minutes. He’s been in doubt digits just twice since (both in FSU wins, for what it’s worth) and has not had double-digit rebounds since. He had 13 in FSU’s last win over Boston College to go with nine rebounds, and he has 12 points in the three games combined (all losses) on 4-of-10 shooting and eight rebounds.

TEMPO-FREE

Pitt has allowed an OE of 100 or higher in 16 straight games now. That’s by far their longest such streak in the Ken Pom era - in fact, it’s double the previous longest streak of eight games in 2008. … Florida State lost to Louisville - by a lot - in spite of a 66.7 free-throw rate (their highest in a loss this year) and rebounding 48.5 percent of their missed shots (also highest in a loss this year).

NARRATIVES

Pittsburgh Win: Look Pitt snapped its losing streak just in time to NOT go to the NCAA Tournament hot Pitt of them

Pittsburgh Loss: The worst

Florida State Win: Does it matter, does it not, who are we to say

Florida State Loss: Just….why? And also how?

PREDICTION

Florida State, 79-68. I think Pitt is ready for the season to be over.

WAKE FOREST (13-17, 5-12) AT BOSTON COLLEGE (11-18, 3-14)

Time: 2:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

THE RIVALRY! FINALLY, IT’S HERE! You can throw out the records when these two get together, which will be a huge relief for both teams. Boston College will defense a little bit, and Wake…well, Wake is trying. Wake is going to try to play fast, and take shots – if those shots fall, Wake almost always has a chance. Sounds simple, but hey. Boston College is probably not going to try to force a ton of turnovers like Duke did, so it’s going to have to come down to shot-making. And Boston College is going to have to avoid fouling, because Wake lives at the line.

PTP-ERS

Codi Miller-McIntyre. Wake as at its best when he’s assertive. It took him awhile against Duke, and the game was essentially decided when he did, but he did – and he finished with 20 points on 9-of-13 shooting. He’s a game-changer for them when he’s being aggressive, and his 13 shots were his most attempts since January 28. He’ll be going up against one of the best guards in the league; why not show what he can do?

Olivier Hanlan. I usually try to avoid using him if I can, but you know what? It’s the last game of the year, and his final chance to impress the voters. His 15 points and 96 ORtg against Virginia Tech in the Eagles’ last game certainly won’t get the job done. Like most teams, Wake is probably going to gear its defense around slowing him down. But he’s hit the 20-point mark in six of the last 10 games and 30 in four, so. It’ll probably take something like 25 points, over 50 percent shooting and 3-4 assists to lock up first team. Sad, but it is what it is.

TEMPO-FREE

These two teams have had the No. 1 (Wake) and No. 3 (Boston College) strength of schedule in conference play, per Ken Pom, to date. Seven of Boston College’s losses this season and six in ACC play have come to Ken Pom top-25 teams; eight have come to the top 50. Boston College is 7-3 against teams ranked 100th or worse in Ken Pom and 4-15 against everyone else (and everyone else is in the top 100, which is crazy). … Wake Forest, meanwhile, is 8-2 against teams ranked 100 or worse and 5-15 against everyone else. Seven of Wake’s 14 ACC losses have come against the top TWENTY teams in Ken Pom, and 10 of 17 losses all season have come against the top 50.

NARRATIVES

Wake Forest Win: OMG A ROAD WIN I DON’T KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH MY HANDS

Wake Forest Loss: Not even THIS road game, Wake?

Boston College Win: Not great, Boston College.

Boston College Loss: You finally get an easier (by comparison) home game and you go ahead and blow it

PREDICTION

Boston College, 69-64. Wake will keep it close, but ultimately Boston College is probably a little bit better than its record. Danny Manning and company will probably have to wait another year to get an ACC road win.

CLEMSON (16-13, 8-9) AT NO. 12 NOTRE DAME (25-5, 13-4)

Time: 4:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself here, but I think that Notre Dame might be….learning to….defense? A little? In the last two games, they held Syracuse and Louisville to OE’s under 100. It was the first time Notre Dame had done that since Dec. 13 and 20 against Florida State and Purdue. And it was one of each team’s seven worst performances of the year. Clemson seems to resist offense like it’s a virulent plague, so maybe, just maybe, the Irish can go into the ACC Tournament with some defensive momentum. Or maybe they’ll go back to their non-defensing ways. Hopefully it’s the former.

PTP-ERS

Gabe DeVoe. I’m going to resist the “Poison” jokes. But he was inserted into the game late against NC State, and boy did he deliver: he scored 18 points in six minutes on 6-of-10 shooting (3-of-7 from three). Entering the game, he’d played 37 minutes in the previous four games and had eight points on 3-of-11 shooting. Seriously. And he almost fouled out! He had four fouls in six minutes against NC State! Unreal. But on the season, DeVoe had been 1-of-10 from 2 and 3-of-18 from 3. He was 3-of-3 from 2 in the State game alone. Unreal. But hey, Brad Brownell. Maybe play a dude that can make shots when your team can’t offense. Just saying.

Jerian Grant. Speaking of late All-ACC pushes, it’s time for Grant to make his. Jahlil Okafor’s six-point performance might have left the door open a bit for ACC Player of the Year. The last time against Clemson, Grant had 22 points on 7-of-14 shooting, five assists, one turnover and three steals. He was spectacular, as he usually is. But he hasn’t been as much lately, and voters tend to remember how you finish. In the last three games, he’s averaging just 11.7 points (on 11-of-26 shooting), though he does have 27 assists (to 10 turnovers, which is high for him). So, yeah. A better game in this one is in order.

TEMPO-FREE

Notre Dame missed its first nine shots of the second half against Louisville. The Irish then proceeded to make 9 of its final 10 shots from the field, and over the final 10:34, they outscored Louisville 25-12. … Speaking of droughts, Clemson went 14:23 without a field goal in the second half against NC State. FOURTEEN. MINUTES. Here’s the thing, too: Clemson was 2-of-2 in the first 2:11 of the half and 8-of-17 in the final 3:26. So that’s 10-of-19 in a 5:37 span of the second half and ZERO OF SIXTEEN in the 14:23 in between. I KNOW YOU’RE IN COMEBACK MODE CLEMSON BUT HOW DO YOU TAKE SIXTEEN SHOTS IN FOURTEEN MINUTES AND NINETEEN SHOTS IN THE OTHER FIVE JUST STOP IT

NARRATIVES

Clemson Win: Improving that NIT seed by the minute

Clemson Loss: Oh look, Clemson’s offense

Notre Dame Win: I’ve tried to quit you all season. Then I saw a highlight package from you win over Louisville and the feelings came flooding back.

Notre Dame Loss: You wound me, Notre Dame.

PREDICTION

Notre Dame, 79-62. I love you again, Notre Dame.

NO. 2 VIRGINIA (28-1, 16-1) AT NO. 16 LOUISVILLE (23-7, 11-6)

Time: 6:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Considering how much Louisville hates their own rims, it’s not a good sign that they’re going to be facing what is still one of the best defenses in the country, and one that held Louisville to 0.85 points per possession in the first meeting – most of which was without Justin Anderson and WITH Chris Jones. Louisville is tweaking its new lineup, and it’s been a bit of a mixed bag without Jones. For all that talk, though, Louisville is shooting 36.1 percent in its last three home games and 36.6 percent in its last three road games, and 35.2 percent from three on the road to 30.8 percent on the road. Biggest difference is in free-throw attempts (20.3 at home, 16.3 on the road). But Virginia doesn’t foul a lot. The foul line was the difference in the first meeting (Virginia was 16-of-22, Louisville 10-of-13). But Virginia’s got to make shots, too.

PTP-ERS

London Perrantes. Playing at – or even just against – Louisville is usually the stuff of nightmares for opposing point guards. Perrantes, in the first meeting, didn’t shoot well (1-of-8) but had six assists to one turnover. He’s been spectacular, and he’s not hit double digits in four of the last five games in scoring just when his team has needed it most, all while continuing to be the consummate point guard: 27 assists to five turnovers in that span. That….seems good. Louisville can take you out of what you want to do at times, but it’s been tough to do that to Perrantes. The best thing about his game of late is he’s hitting three’s: 8-of-17 in the last four. Virginia needs all the offense and shooting it can get without Justin Anderson.

Terry Rozier. Louisville’s sophomore guard seemed like a lock for first team just a few weeks ago. But in his last eight games, he’s shooting 38-of-124 – 30.6 percent (and 8-of-34, 23.5 percent, from 3). The slump seemed to begin against Virginia: he had hit at least one three-pointer in all but one ACC game to that point, and he’s gone 0-fer in four of the last eight. Louisville needs him to be dominant, whether or not that’s fair, and he blamed himself for the Notre Dame loss (he was 4-of-15) which is certainly unfair. But fair or not, he’s got to step up from a shooting perspective.

TEMPO-FREE

One reason that it didn’t matter that Virginia had such a bad start to the game against Syracuse was that it rebounded 53.3 percent of its missed shots, its highest percentage of the year. Virginia’s 33.3 percent turnover percentage, though, was its highest since Jan. 15, 2006 in a win over Virginia Tech (34.1 percent). … Louisville is 13-1 when this year when it has an eFG percentage of over 50 percent and 14-6 when shooting below that; Louisville is 4-3 when it’s below 40 percent in eFG percentage and has done that twice in the last six games.

NARRATIVES

Virginia Win: OH HEY KAMMY DON’T THINK I FORGOT ABOUT YOU SOULMATE

​

Virginia Loss: OH GOD THEY’RE DOOMED, DOOMED WITHOUT JUSTIN ANDERSON

Louisville Win: Well look who’s feeling good again and got a nice big win

Louisville Loss: No wonder your offense has looked so bad lately

PREDICTION

Louisville, 62-58. This just feels like that season finale at Maryland last year for the Cavaliers for some reason.

Last week: 9-5 (9-5 ACC)

Overall: 83-38 (82-38 ACC)