Understanding the puzzling low turnout for a righteous cause

Supporters and activists in the #YouStink movement are genuinely baffled by the low turnout in their protests, despite the fact that their main grievance (the trash catastrophe) has not been resolved yet. It is telling that there are more cars in one ABC mall parking lot than people in the demos. The Lebanese people are voting with their feet: They’d rather go shopping (and clubbing) than protest. But why?

People sympathetic to the movement have two explanations for the meagre turnout: One is preachy (The Lebanese by not going down to demonstrate deserve everything bad that is happening to them) and the other is condescending (poor Lebanese, they are so used to a bad life that they became desensitised). The subtext of both explanations is this: Anyone in their right mind should join the demo.

If you run a poll today, I’m sure that a large percentage of the Lebanese population would agree with the demands of the movement. But there’s a large difference between being sympathetic to a cause and bestirring yourself and taking to the street for it. Here are five reasons why many people are opting to stay home:

1) The trash crisis is a local issue, not a national one

Yes, the images on TV and in the international media are harming Lebanon’s reputation as a whole, but the trash situation with its raw gut-wrenching smells and sights is only local to greater Beirut and the areas around it. This already eliminates the entire north, south and the Bekaa (most of the population) as potential sources of protesters.

Remember when Tebbane and Qobbé were shooting missiles at each other in the outskirts of Tripoli? Like the trash situation it was a scandalous relinquishing of responsibility by the government. Like the trash situation, the images of urban warfare tarnished the country’s reputation as a whole. But most importantly, like the trash situation, people in Beirut lived their lives as if nothing was happening on the other side of the country.

2) This is a middle class protest

Many people in Lebanon are angry and hungry, but the main lightening rod for this particular protest is the trash situation. True, protesters are using the trash as a metaphor for incompetent government, but people don’t go to protests because of metaphors. The main engine of this movement is disgust over smells and sights on the road.

Poor people are not part of this movement for two reasons: One, most of Lebanon’s poor live outside of Beirut (see above: local issue) and two, poor people are used to living in squalor and are not as shocked by the sight of trash on the road as the middle class. In other words, this is a middle class protest: protesting against bad smells and metaphors is more like protesting against slow internet than it is like protesting against corruption and poverty. It’s a completely worthwhile cause (for people like me), but it’s not “revolution” material.

Middle class protests are famous for taking place on social media more than on the streets.

3) Lack of clear objectives

If you asked the people in the demonstration what their objective is, you are likely to get several answers: From the ambitious (complete revolution against the sectarian system), to the reasonable (resignation of Interior minister). But mostly, people are going there to sound off their frustration and displeasure with the situation. But you don’t need the street for that. You can do it in the media and on Facebook.

4) Revolution is not de rigueur nowadays

At the beginning of the Arab spring when revolutions were so innocent, revolution was a much more positive word for people. Today, in post-Sisi Egypt and post-ISIS Syria and Iraq, “revolution” is more associated with chaos, death and destruction than it is with progress.

Public opinion in the Arab world has shifted decidedly towards embracing any form of order and government even if corrupt.

5)The Lebanese are tired of going to the streets

10 years of inconsequential popular mass movements have driven many Lebanese to fatigue and to say “never again”. Even the Aounists, who were famous for going to the streets no longer have the stomach for it.