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So, while nothing as generous as the prototype of the basic-income pilot in Ontario has ever been comprehensively implemented in any context, we do have theory, models and studies from across academic disciplines that provide some clue about what to expect. As with any theory, model, or study, however, estimated effects rely on an informed set of assumptions applied to a particular context, and we can never be 100-per-cent certain about anything, especially when it will occur in the future.

Photo by Doug Ives/CP

This is why we propose that the best way forward would be a staged phase-in of a basic-income guarantee. There are multiple ways this could be done. One option we are currently working on in more detail elsewhere proposes to: a) undertake the collaborative development of a framework that includes direct involvement of both levels of government and First Nations, b) expand the current Canada Workers Benefit (formerly the Working Income Tax Benefit) to include all low-income persons working or not, partially funded by removal of many non-refundable tax credits and replacement of welfare, and c) eventually fold in OAS/GIS, the Canada Child Benefit, and employment insurance.

An adequate basic income is not financially sustainable unless the federal and provincial governments collaborate in its development and share the funding burden. While there are ways the framework could be designed so that not all provinces and First Nations would have to sign on (see a two-stage proposal for a federal-provincial basic income here), individual and household arbitrage between provinces that choose to implement a basic income or not (and also on and off-reserve) may lead to greater income inequality between the provinces and on and off-reserve First Nations peoples, which would ultimately threaten the program’s viability.