Once the United States advances to the final round, known as the hexagonal, it should be favored again. Its world ranking is 30th. Only Mexico, at 22nd, is higher among the teams from the United States’ region. The other likely participants range from Costa Rica at 33, down to the 80s. And with three or four qualifying spots available, there is quite a margin for error. Mexico was 2-3-5 in the hexagonal and still qualified for the 2014 Cup.

Every four years, it seems, there comes a time when the United States hits a bad patch in qualifying and panic ensues.

At the same stage in qualifying for 2014, the United States started 1-1-1 with a draw in Guatemala and a loss in Jamaica and was tied for second in the group. The Americans went on to win it. Four years earlier, the United States lost a game in the final qualifying round at Costa Rica after drawing at El Salvador. The United States won the group; Costa Rica and El Salvador did not make the World Cup.

Notice that all of the key American setbacks came on the road. Winning international games in Central America and the Caribbean can be tough; conditions are difficult and refereeing can be iffy. When the hexagonal begins, expect the United States to lose an away game and the hand-wringing to begin again. And expect the United States to qualify for the World Cup.