As the draft rapidly approaches, we’re going to continue to focus on quarterbacks (because it sure seems like Dorsey and Reid are, frankly). Up next is the last of the “Big Four” quarterbacks, DeShone Kizer.

First and foremost, Kizer has an awesome last name. It’s the kind of last name that is reserved for those of borderline kingly traits. Frankly, I almost didn’t review the guy’s film because it’s practically predetermined that he’s going to be awesome. But I suppose we should go through the motions, yeah?

(In case you don’t listen to podcasts or 610, my last name is pronounced, well, like Kizer’s. Yes, I know that’s not how it is spelled. Leave me alone)

So if you don’t know, we’ve already looked at Patrick Mahomes (here), Mitch Trubisky (here) and Deshaun Watson (here). I’m tracking accurate/inaccurate throws (as much as we can see without all-22, that is. Some throws don’t get charted due to being throwaways or impossible to tell on broadcast film), snaps with multiple reads before the throw, bad decisions, and franchise QB throws. We’ll look at those “numbers,” then talk about the film.

So, DeShone Kizer...

Heh, then Kizer's all "shut up Seth while I drop a dime 45+ yards down the field." pic.twitter.com/tKMgFz0Azu — Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) April 10, 2017

He’s one of the more interesting quarterbacks I’ve reviewed, in that I absolutely hated his film the first few games I watched. He grew on a me a little bit the more I watched, but he’s the first prospect that I was quite ready to stamp a do not want label on (I wasn’t crazy about Trubisky either, but liked him a bit more. At least to start off).

Before we talk about the whys of all that, let’s look at the numbers I tracked.

Let’s talk about some numbers. As I’ve said before, accuracy (along with pocket presence) is one of the most important traits a quarterback can possess. If you cannot consistently put the ball where it needs to go, it doesn’t matter what else you can do well.

And that’s where you’ll likely see my issue with Kizer right out of the gate. Kizer’s threw 2.73 accurate passes for every inaccurate pass he made. That’s ... well, just flat-out bad. For comparison sake, here are the other three QBs I’ve reviewed so far:

Watson: 4.65

Mahomes: 3.98

Trubisky: 3.58

Now, that can always be chalked up to the type of offense someone is asked to run (for example, Watson’s offense had plenty of quick-hitting short passes that lead to more accurate throws). However, the offense Kizer ran featured plenty of quick, easy throws that should (in theory) boost his accuracy rate. Additionally, Mahomes (whom he gets compared to given the fact that they both have big arms) attempted many more tough throws a game than Kizer. So that explanation rings hollow.

The negatives at this point seem to outweigh the positives

To mix the numbers review with the film for a moment, I can say that in my experience Kizer’s MUCH lower accuracy rate didn’t appear to be a function of the offense he was running. Every single game he missed at least a couple (and often more) of very simple pitch-and-catch throws, either skipping them in the dirt or sailing them well over the head of the receiver.

I could maybe overlook that accuracy number of Kizer was making multiple fantastic throws a game to compensate. However, despite having easily the second-best arm of the group (his arm talent is easily better than Trubisky’s or Watson’s, though a step down from Mahomes), Kizer wasn’t sticking many franchise QB throws (yes, a subjective stat, but you know it when you see it). He threw 2.67 per game, which again places him dead last among the QB’s I’ve reviewed:

Mahomes: 7.75

Watson: 3.8

Trubisky: 2.83

Really, the only quarterback who is close to Kizer in that area is Trubisky, who is considered more of a game manager type (and he’s more than a full throw per game below Watson, who gets hammered for being limited as a thrower). Again, the comparison with Mahomes falls well short, as Mahomes made very close to three times as many franchise QB throws a game as Kizer. It’s not even close.

In the meantime, Kizer didn’t have many snaps where he seemed to go past his first read (and even fewer where he surveyed the entire field) ... however, I will give him a similar break here to the one I gave Watson in this regard: it appeared that Kizer was doing a little more work pre-snap to determine who the first read should be than Mahomes or Trubisky. As a result, he leaned on that first option. HOWEVER, I can’t give him nearly the break I give Watson there for a very simple reason: Watson’s first read was, quite often, very open. This at least creates the appearance of being more capable of diagnosing the appropriate route combination prior to the snap.

With regards to bad decisions, Kizer made more than Watson and Trubisky but fewer than Mahomes (by about one more per game and one less per game, respectively), which I don’t think surprises anyone. Overall, though, his numbers really give me pause. A lot of pause. So let’s talk some film, starting with the things Kizer DOES do quite well.

Gotta give Kizer this: he's got an arm. 35 yards in the air in half a second. Like it's shot out of a cannon. pic.twitter.com/Y89KbELXAZ — Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) April 10, 2017

Any conversation about Kizer should begin with his arm. Like I said, he’s not Mahomes, but he absolutely has a very, very good arm. That’s demonstrated on throws like the one above, when he fires the ball in 30-plus yards out better than many NFL quarterbacks can. It’s impressive, and something he shows consistently. He can put the ball into tight windows that other quarterbacks just can’t. That’s one of those “you can’t teach it” talents that makes a prospect automatically intriguing.

Kizer definitely has the arm people are looking for, now that I've watched more of him. Can really zip throws in there. pic.twitter.com/t82UUxJ8HA — Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) April 11, 2017

In addition to having a strong arm, Kizer shows the ability to vary the speed and trajectory of this throws depending on the situation, much like Mahomes. That was an area I found lacking with Trubisky, who doesn’t seem to always understanding that you don’t need to throw it with everything you’ve got every time you drop back. Kizer demonstrated repeatedly that he knows when to try and float it vs. fire it. That’s definitely a positive.

Kizer also moves around the pocket fairly well for a college quarterback, something that was a bit of a necessity with a leaky offensive line in 2016. While he’s not nearly as natural as Mahomes in finding open spots, he demonstrates the ability to buy time more often than most players his age. He’s not perfect, and at times he’ll get himself into trouble by panicking and moving aimlessly about the pocket, but the raw material is definitely there enough that I think he’ll do well in that respect with a little more coaching.

Another positive aspect I saw from Kizer is that he seems to do a bit of pre-snap talking with his line and (I think) had some control at the line of scrimmage. That’s a positive thing in a young quarterback and gives hope for the ability to fully grasp/command an NFL-level offense. I would put him a fair notch below Watson in this area, but I saw him doing more pre-snap (as well as one can see such things from the outside looking in, at least) than Mahomes or Trubisky.

DeShone Kizer is a guy who seems to possess some very important QB traits but also has some gigantic red flags

On a final note, Kizer is a decent athlete who is more than willing to use his legs as a weapon. Also seems very, very tough, willing to grind out yards and make hits instead of just receiving them (though I have some concern about that style at the NFL level, where everyone is bigger and faster).

The problem for Kizer, with me, is that the negatives at this point seem to outweigh the positives. We already talked about accuracy, which is a borderline deal-breaker for me. I just don’t trust Kizer to get the ball where it’s supposed to be, great arm or not, from snap to snap.

Additionally, Kizer stares down receivers prior to throwing the ball more than any other quarterback in the draft, and it’s not even close. Here’s a couple of examples of nearly back-to-back throws from the same game.

More than any of other QB's I've watched so far, Kizer has a real problem staring receivers down. Poor accuracy here saves a pick six. pic.twitter.com/zqPg2gH4cS — Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) April 10, 2017

Just a couple of plays later, Kizer pays for staring down his receiver prior to the throw, results in six the other way. pic.twitter.com/q8SLfufqzK — Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) April 10, 2017

This was a consistent, noticeable problem with Kizer. Now make no mistake, many young quarterbacks (in fact, most) stare down their primary read. However, with Kizer it’s something that jumps out after a few dozen snaps. It’s blatant and lasts for several full seconds on many snaps (perhaps even the majority of them).

Even worse, Kizer would often stare down receivers well past the time a throw should have been released, THEN make the throw. It was as though it took him a full second or two to make the decision to throw, even when he’d already decided where to go. That level of hesitation at the pro level is going to get you picked off consistently, way more so than forcing throws into tight windows or even throwing the ball up for grabs. It’s an awful habit, and it occurred throughout every game I watched him play (in both 2015 and 2016).

With good coaching and a solid system set up, a tendency to stare down receivers can be compensated for and even erased. However, Kizer’s issue is so much more pronounced than many other quarterbacks that I have a concern as to whether it’s symptomatic of a larger issue, such as an inability to process quickly. That, of course, is impossible to say, and it could well be fixable. But it still makes me hesitate about Kizer.

Overall, DeShone Kizer is a guy who seems to possess some very important QB traits (arm talent, pocket presence, toughness, ability to read defenses pre-snap) but also has some gigantic red flags (accuracy, staring down receivers) that make it impossible to really trust him, at least for me.

Like any of the other Big Four Quarterbacks, if Andy Reid and John Dorsey choose a guy that’s enough for me to give him a puncher’s chance. And as always, it’s important to remember that there’s no sure way to know how a player will look in the pros (Parker Ehinger’s Chiefs tape looks better than his college tape, for example). But right now, Kizer fits right in there with Trubisky as a guy I would not draft as the quarterback of the future.

This brings us to the end of the Big Four Quarterbacks. If there is a second-round or mid-round prospect you’d like me to review, I’d be happy to do it (though it’ll likely be shorter than these have been). For now, the definitive (and by that I mean meaningless) rankings go:

Mahomes Watson (really more like 1a) Trubisky Kizer

No matter what happens in the draft, I really can’t wait to see if this really is the direction the Chiefs are going (or if it’s all just a big smokescreen).