As 2018 comes to a close you must give credit where due even if you are a critic of the idea of controlled democracy and civil-military imbalance. In our 10-year cycles of civilian and khaki rule, there have been years that must be granted to praetorians (when they overthrew governments and assumed direct control of the state). But in 2018 the control established and exercised from behind the curtain was so comprehensive and effective that this has to be the year of the Umpire. The Umpire might have total control. But you can’t prove a thing.

It was probably the success of Project MQM that laid groundwork for taking the model nationwide. Remember how MQM ruled Karachi? The fear in Karachi’s air, the unending phone addresses and singing, the shutdowns, the bhatta, media’s obsession with Karachi, everything about MQM being breaking news. And poof. It is gone. We had MQM-Bahadurabad, MQM-PIB, Pak-Sarzameen Party and MQM-London. And then all of them put together just became trivial, a frail shadow of their past selves, eager to please and serve the Umpire to just remain.

2018 started with a vote of no confidence in Balochistan. Did the Umpire inspire the move? Did it think up Project Sanjrani? Hold on. Didn’t Asif Zardari take all credit for ousting PML-N in Balochistan and snatching the Senate from it? Didn’t PTI vote along with PPP for Chairman and Deputy Chairman Senate? The Umpire might have provided some inspiration. But it was AZ and PTI that brought it all home, with AZ returning from time-off post his ‘eent-se-eent’ speech (as did his friends of the Omni group fame) to deliver Sanjrani.

The foundation for 2018 was assembled in 2017. But did the Umpire author Panama leaks? Did it set up the JIT or oust Nawaz Sharif from office? That was the Supreme Court. Did it seek NS’s conviction from the accountability court? No. That was NAB. Was NS convicted and jailed by the Umpire? No. Accountability court did so under SC’s supervision. SC comprises independent-minded judges who can’t God forbid be accused of being under anyone’s control. How can anyone claim that the Umpire had anything to do with NS’s ouster?

Lets move on to Election 2018. Where is the evidence that the election was fixed? Don’t we know that every election in our history has been engineered? What did the Umpire have to do with the election outcome? PTI’s popularity was on the rise since 2011. It emerged as the most potent opposition party in 2013. Didn’t half the country think even in 2013 that the elections were rigged? We had the Dharna. SC formed a commission to hear and rule on the matter. The same thing happened in 2018. We are just sore losers. Whoever loses cries wolf.

Didn’t Election Commission conduct Election 2018, whose members had been appointed by the PML-N and the PPP (and not PTI or the Umpire)? Didn’t the SC declare it would ensure fair and free elections? If polling agents were thrown out of polling stations or if Fafen claims that 95 percent of Form-45s weren’t signed by polling agents, and there is no verifiable evidence to be presented before our independent Election Commission or our independent and assertive SC, why cast aspersions on the Umpire? There was a fight. The best man won.

Didn’t the Umpire declare repeatedly that it wanted continuity of the democratic process? Wasn’t our elected PM invited to GHQ with all pomp and wasn’t visual confirmation provided to all and sundry that it was the PM who was in charge of the generals? PM IK has repeatedly declared his intention to improve ties with India. Has the Umpire chided him for romancing the enemy? Didn’t the army chief stand right next to the PM during Kartarpur corridor inauguration? Do the cynics not understand that the Umpire supports the government’s India policy?

And has the Umpire sought any more publicity than is due by virtue of the vital functions it performs? Remember #ThankYouRaheelSharif and all other image building shenanigans? Has the current chief sought projection of the sort? And why blame the Umpire for media’s self-censorship or ill-conceived business model? There are a few dozen channels. Can invisible hands control all of them from behind the curtain and instruct them on what to say and do? If they are being coerced, why don’t they petition our independent judiciary?

We hear that NS and AZ might be arrested before 2018 calls it a day. NS is facing a criminal trial for allegedly looting national wealth. SC is supervising the trial and if NS is jailed, it will be because the judge hearing the matter would have came to the conclusion that NS is guilty. So what does the Umpire have to do with the judicial process? In AZ’s case, NAB has been investigating money-laundering charges amongst other things. If it has found evidence and can convince the court that AZ has dirt on his hands, why blame the Umpire?

We have a CJP who wants things done for the good of the country before his time is up. We have a NAB chief who wants to lock up all bad folk. We have a PM who wants to put an end to the graft and grease that continues to derail the system. Given that judiciary has been instrumental in driving so much of the change, will Pakistan be a different place in 2019 after the CJP hangs his robes or if the NAB chief gets changed?

It won’t if we believe in what Rolf Dobelli calls ‘fundamental attribution error’ in his very readable “The Art of Thinking Clearly”. He describes it as “the tendency to overestimate individuals’ influence and underestimate external, situational factors… useful for whittling negative events into neat little packages”.

Dobelli argues that, “much as we are fascinated by the spectacle of life, the people on stage are not perfect, self-governed individuals. Instead they tumble from situation to situation. If you want to understand the current play — really understand it — then forget about the performers. Play close attention to the dance of influences to which the actors are subjected.”

And this is where the Umpire comes in as the only real institution in our country that thinks and acts like an institution. It is not that individuals are not relevant. They are. Personal proclivities can change the shape of events in the immediate term. But if personal ambition doesn’t drive you to be at the forefront, isn’t it a great deal to have all the power without the responsibility or blame that otherwise accompanies power? If the Umpire has mastered the art of exercising power from behind the curtain, should it change the ‘dance of influences’ to which the actors are responding?

If Project MQM is anything to go by, why offer deals to PML-N and PPP leaders when you can obliterate them and enjoy total control. Why meticulously build NS’s reputation as a thief only to bale him out? Why not finish him off now that he refuses to partake in the dance of influences and groom others who are more willing as NS once was. Why not let AZ finally get convicted when he has been saying for two and a half decades that no charges have ever been proven against him? Just like 2018, isn’t it time for NS and AZ to walk into the sunset and help the system along?

IK, our prime minister is charismatic and charming. He has huge following and fan base. He has the right credentials to lead the charge against NS and AZ and a proven record of dancing to situational influences. Unless he becomes suicidal and seeks to grab power from the Umpire, he will be all right. Also the separation between the judiciary and the khakis is a thing of the past. They now seem united in their desire to cleanse Pakistan and take it upwards and onwards. Could the de facto crystallizing into the de jure have come about at a more propitious time?

Lets not sully the holiday mood by asking if this model is sustainable. It is a time to celebrate. Well-done boys.