Rutherford's explosive growth set to push county's population to Tennessee's third-largest, study says

Brinley Hineman | Murfreesboro Daily News Journal

New researchshows that Rutherford County's explosive growth could push it to the third-most populated county in the state by 2050.

Currently ranking fifth-largest county statewide, researchers from the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee project that by 2026, Rutherford County's growth will outpace Hamilton County, and by 2050, it will have more residents than Knox County.

The state’s population is estimated to grow by more than 1 million people by 2040, according to the study.

The study estimates that more than half of Tennessee's growth by 2040 will come from Middle Tennessee, with Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson and Sumner Counties.

Urban counties are expected to pull in new residents, as Shelby County is expected to hit the 1 million population mark by 2050, according to projections. Carter and Sullivan Counties are the only urban counties projected to see slight decreases by 2040.

Nearly 30 rural counties will see decreases in population.

Relying on data from the Tennessee Department of Health and migration data from the US Census Bureau, the study found the number of people ages 65 and older is likely to increase by 1.9 percent annually, or 2.67 times faster than the state’s growth rate, the study says. The senior population is expected to jump by nearly 47% by 2040.

Tennessee's white non-Hispanic population is projected to decrease from 73.7% in 2018 to 66.6% by 2040 and 55.1% by 2070. The Hispanic population statewide is expected to nearly double by 2040, jumping from 5.6% to 10.2%.

With 1.32 million residents, the black non-Hispanic population will remain the second-largest racial group in 2040, the study says. However, the state’s Hispanic population is projected to become the second-largest racial group by 2063 with 1.47 million residents.

Reach Brinley Hineman at bhineman@gannett.com, at 615-278-5164 and on Twitter @brinleyhineman.