Verizon recently announced that it will allow any mobile device maker to connect to its wireless network for a single, "surprisingly reasonable" certification fee, and it hasn't taken long for the analysts and conspiracy buffs to drive themselves into a frenzy wondering what this move could mean. Is Verizon merely adjusting to the market's push for more open networks, or does the telecommunications giant have some larger—and possibly more sinister—plan up its sleeve? While it's still not clear what Verizon's real motivations are, there are a few theories worth considering.

Some observers point out that Verizon's move merely brings the company's offerings to the same level as providers using the more popular GSM network, where customers can move their accounts to a new mobile device merely by transferring a SIM card. In this scenario, Verizon would just be keeping up with its competition.

Other analysts, such as InformationWeek's Eric Zeman, think the move could be about a future competitor. Zeman was confused by the lack of support for this announcement by the Open Handset Alliance, the group of companies partnering with Google to develop an open-source mobile phone operating system called Android. The OHA folks may simply be too busy developing the Android system to concern themselves with what Verizon is doing.

A slightly darker theory is being put forward by people such as Silicon Valley Insider's Dan Frommer, who believes that the "open network" announcement is merely a way to get the public to accept the idea of paying hefty fees for data network usage. The idea is to get as many types of devices—not necessarily phones—on the wireless network as possible, and by doing so get people used to the idea of paying by the kilobyte for any kind of access. This is in contrast to the traditional ISP model where users pay a monthly fee regardless of how much bandwidth they consume (of course, even with ISPs there is an unstated limit and many will cut you off if you go beyond that level).

At the extreme edge of the spectrum we have Robert Cringely, who is not afraid to engage in juicy conspiracy theories. He believes that Verizon's move is "straight from the playbook of the old AT&T back in the 1970s," when the company warned users not to connect third-party land line phones to its network. He believes that Verizon will release network specifications very slowly and find excuses to not approve most of the third-party device manufacturers that apply for access to its network. Though not as old as Cringely, I'm old enough to remember the days when the phone company discouraged customers from using third-party telephones. However, I also remember that this idea was ultimately doomed to failure. The idea of an open network where you could plug in any phone from any manufacturer was too good to resist. There's no reason why the same couldn't happen with mobile phone networks in the future.

So is Verizon really changing its ways and embracing the inevitable? Perhaps. But if so, it's a rather sudden and extreme reversal of the company's position. It was only last year that the CEO of Verizon told the world that Google wasn't paying enough to access "his pipes," and last July the company petitioned Congress to remove an "open access" requirement from the upcoming 700MHz bandwidth auction. It also sued the FCC before later dropping the suit.

That auction—in which Google is expected to make serious noise—could be the beginning of a major change in the balance of power for mobile networks. The spectrum, which was previously used by UHF TV broadcast channels 52 through 69, could be the new battleground in the fight between traditional carriers such as AT&T and Verizon and the new breed of Internet companies like Google who want to get in on the mobile action.