It’s all I can do to keep track of US issues, so I claim zero expertise in doings north of the border. I have a basic idea of what the parties represent, that Harper is Bush-lite, and that the NDP, like US progressives, seem to always be the also ran. Is that changing?

The year 2011 is shaping up to be a decisive, politically realigning time…for our country’s neighbor to the north and largest trading partner, Canada. In the country’s national election this Monday, their multi-party system is being shaken up dramatically by the sudden rise — and quite possible parliamentary victory — of their traditional third party, the left-wing New Democrats (NDP).

Direct comparisons between other countries’ political parties and the U.S. can often be overly simplistic. The Conservative Party in its modern right-wing form could be compared to the Republicans — but even that is not a perfect comparison, as for example they resist any attack that they would ever get rid of the country’s single-payer universal health care system. After that, it gets very complex.

The Liberal Party, the country’s traditionally dominant party and main progressive party, is in some ways similar to the span of much of the Democrats in the U.S., with the exception of its most left-leaning members. As for the NDP, imagine if the kind of U.S. Democrats who constitute the Congressional Progressive Caucus in Washington were in fact their own party — one with its own history and culture, its own strongholds and places they hope to win — and with no particular love for the Democrats, and sometimes splitting votes with them. And when it comes to the Bloc Quebecois, a group that presents some key problems, we will see how they defy direct comparisons entirely.

Recent polls show the NDP, aided by the personal popularity of its leader Jack Layton, catapulting into second place, pushing the comparatively more moderate Liberal Party into third. If NDP support continues to rise, it’s conceivable that Layton could ultimately become Prime Minister of the country with Liberal support, and as such put the incumbent Conservatives out of power.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party is determined to win the prize that has eluded them — an actual majority of seats in Parliament. But if the current polls prove accurate, and the NDP broke through into a strong second place, that would place the country in a whole new territory… [emphasis added]