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Clark County’s population keeps growing — much like the state as a whole — fueled primarily by people moving into already dense urban areas.

But Yi Zhao, chief demographer at the state Office of Financial Management, thinks the trend is about to change.

“Right now, the growth is concentrated in the large metro counties,” she said.

The U.S. Census Bureau named Washington the fourth fastest-growing state in the country after Idaho, Nevada and Utah. Most of that growth is from people moving here.

Zhao thinks Washington’s growth will continue to be concentrated in its larger urban counties until 2020; after that, perhaps, people seeking more affordable housing will branch out into medium-sized or smaller rural counties. She pointed out that Snohomish and Pierce absorb people from fast-growing King County, and Clark County similarly gets people who are leaving Portland.

Zhao’s office estimates there were 471,000 people residing in Clark County in 2017. While there is no crystal ball that says exactly how many people will live here in the coming decades, the Office of Financial Management uses a variety of data, such as building permits, school enrollment, voter registration, drivers’ license data, the number of births and deaths, to compile its Growth Management Act population projections. These look at how many people could live in each county through 2040.