Merry Christmas to all in NFL World.

It's draft day, and I'm trying to wade through the smoke to figure out what happens later tonight. Here's what I think I know…

First two are locks

The top two picks are set and have been set since the combine. The Bengals aren't willing to trade the rights to No. 1, knowing it could be a Sam Bowie-like scarlet letter. Equally, Washington has entertained calls for the No. 2 slot, but it was always going to take a mega-deal with a team picking in or near the top 10 for the team to make that deal. Chase Young, welcome back to the DMV.

Falcons-Browns trade in play

By the way, the talk of the Falcons wanting into the top 5 is very real. They love the defenders in this year's draft, but teams so far aren't loving falling back to 16 to make a deal with Atlanta. The Falcons could make a deal with the Cardinals at No. 8, but sources around the league tell me Cleveland could be the move at No. 10. That may not be high enough for Atlanta to get C.J. Henderson, but K'Lavon Chaisson could be the pick if they get there.

Lions' GM, coach differ on who to take

The draft begins with Detroit. Teams are having a tough time figuring out if the Lions are going with Jeff Okudah or Derrick Brown. A league source indicated to me GM Bob Quinn favors Okudah while head coach Matt Patricia wants Brown. If the Lions do trade back, it's believed they won't go past the Chargers' pick at No. 6.

The NFL Draft is finally here! So what should you expect? Will Brinson and the Pick Six Podcast Superfriends make their final predictions before the first pick and much more; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.

Chargers a real wild card

Speaking of, it's usually hard to tell what the Chargers are doing because GM Tom Telesco plays things close to the vest. If the Chargers don't go with a quarterback, they may go after Louisville OT Mekhi Becton.

Gettleman unlikely to trade out of No. 4

As much as Giants GM Dave Gettleman wants everyone to believe he's open to trading back, league sources are dubious Gettleman has it in him. Especially where he will have his pick of offensive tackle at a very obvious position of need. I've had Alabama OT Jedrick Wills Jr. mocked there and I'm sticking with that, but Georgia OT Andrew Thomas could also be the pick at No. 4.

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More of Jones' NFL Draft notes