The Hotline’s continuing quest to quantify Pac-12 coaching performance has reached a favorite annual signpost: The NFL Draft.

As arbiter of talent, it stands alone.

Combine multiple years of draft selections (or lack thereof) with multiple years of wins (or losses), and you can begin to spot coaching trends and sketch conclusions.

The issue, it seems, is how to use and interpret the draft data.

For this exercise, I’ve split raw numbers, percentages and rankings into five buckets, all in the name of gaining slightly more clarity into coaching performance:

1. Six-year win totals in conference games

2. Overall winning percentage in conference games

3. Five-year draft pick totals by school

4. Percentage of total Pac-12 draft picks

5. Win totals relative to draft picks

You can see where this is headed …

Before we start, a few caveats:

The information below is just one tool for judging the coaches, and it’s not without flaws.

For one thing, the years don’t perfectly line up: I used the winning percentage from the past six seasons (2012-17) but the draft totals from the past five years (2013-17).

The only way to align win totals with draft picks is to wait until the draft concludes. (Maybe an update next week would be worthwhile.)

There are numerous variables, including coaching changes during the timeframe used, the intra-conference schedule rotation and the real-world disparity in draft picks:

A first-round quarterback and seventh-round inside linebacker don’t carry equivalent value over the course of a college season. In this exercise, all picks are treated equally.

And yet, buried within the data are outlines that might look familiar.

I did not include non-conference games because of what can be significant differences in schedule strength.

*** CONFERENCE WINS BY YEAR (2012-2017)

Stanford: 8-7-5-8-6-7 = 41

USC: 5-6-6-6-7-8 = 38

Oregon: 8-7-8-7-2-4 = 36

Washington: 5-5-4-4-8-7 = 33

Arizona State: 5-8-6-4-2-6 = 31

UCLA: 6-6-6-5-2-4 = 29

Washington State: 1-4-2-6-7-6 = 26

Arizona: 4-4-7-3-1-5 = 24

Utah: 3-2-5-6-5-3 = 24

Oregon State: 6-4-2-0-3-0 = 15

Cal: 2-0-3-4-3-2 = 14

Colorado: 1-1-0-1-8-2 = 13

*** WINNING PERCENTAGE IN CONFERENCE GAMES (2012-2017)

Stanford: 75.9

USC: 70.3

Oregon: 66.7

Washington: 61.1

Arizona State: 57.4

UCLA: 53.7

Washington State: 48.1

Arizona: 44.4

Utah: 44.4

Oregon State: 27.7

Cal: 25.9

Colorado: 24.1

*** DRAFT PICKS BY YEAR (2013-2017)

UCLA: 4-5-3-8-5 = 25

Stanford: 3-6-6-5-2 = 22

USC: 4-3-6-4-5 = 22

Oregon: 5-5-5-2-0 = 17

Utah: 2-2-4-1-7 = 16

Washington: 1-2-4-2-5 = 14

Cal: 4-2-0-4-3 = 13

Oregon State: 2-2-5-1-2 = 12

Arizona State: 0-3-4-2-1 = 10

Colorado: 2-1-0-0-4 = 7

Washington State: 1-1-2-1-1 = 6

Arizona: 0-3-0-2-0 = 5

*** PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL PAC-12 DRAFT PICKS (2013-2017)

(Percentages are rounded)

UCLA: 15

Stanford: 13

USC: 13

Oregon: 10

Utah: 9

Cal: 8

Washington: 8

Oregon State: 7

Arizona State: 6

Colorado: 4

Washington State: 4

Arizona: 3

*** WINS COMPARED TO DRAFT PICKS

In an attempt to measure coaching performance, I have compared each team’s ranking in winning percentage to its ranking in percentage of draft picks produced.

Instances in which the former is markedly higher than the latter would seem to suggest the coaching staff made the most of its talent.

Instances in which the former is markedly lower than the latter would seem to suggest the staff didn’t maximize the talent at hand.

Stanford: 1st/2nd

USC: 2nd/2nd

Oregon: 3rd/4th

Washington: 4th/6th

Arizona State: 5th/9th

UCLA: 6th/1st

Washington State: 7th/10th

Utah: 8th/5th

Arizona: 8th/12th

Oregon State: 10th/8th

Cal: 11th/6th

Colorado: 12th/10th

Final thoughts:

* I’d urge particular caution with judgment on Utah and Colorado, because of the transitions into the Pac-12 and the resulting changes to recruiting dynamics and, in Utah’s case, the need to build a roster with Power Five depth. Related Articles Draft tracker: Ranking the top Pac-12 prospects, from Sam Darnold to Dane Cruikshank (yes, Dane Cruikshank)

Podcast: Decoding Arizona State’s football structure with The Athletic’s Chantel Jennings

The secret to Cal coach Justin Wilcox’s success: Turn the offseason into a regular season

The Pac-12 could sure use Brigham Young (to win games, not join the conference)

Grading the Pac-12 non-conference football schedules: We’ve got every game for each team for five years

* Goodness, Oregon’s recruiting cratered under Mark Helfrich. (Of course, we already knew that.)

* Combine UCLA’s documented incoming talent (recruiting) and the apparent outgoing talent (draft picks), then factor in the tepid on-field success, and it’s difficult to make the case that the Bruins maximized their personnel over the course of the Jim Mora era.

That they could have four times more draft picks than Washington State but only three more conference wins is a staggering statement on the level of player development within the two programs.

* Not lost on the Hotline: One of the greatest disparities in win percentage vs. draft picks belongs to dismissed ASU coach Todd Graham.

Viewed through this particular prism, it appears Graham did fine work coaching his personnel. He just didn’t have enough talent, often enough.

Will Herm Edwards significantly upgrade the personnel while maintaining the necessary level of coaching/teaching?

That’s the only way the Sun Devils consistently compete in the South … the only way the experiment works.

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