All five teams listed here averaged nearly 10 wins last year and were each in the Top 20 of the preseason AP poll going into this season. But all five are currently nowhere to be found in the Top 25 of any poll and combined to win barely more than half the games they collectively won last year.

When you look at the number of games they were projected to win and where they were projected to rank by the model used here to assign every FBS team a rating and project the outcome of every FBS game, these five teams also severely underperformed this season. Here they are, in order of how disappointing they were this year, with a look at what went wrong in 2016.

5. TCU

Oklahoma was picked to defend its Big 12 title in the conference’s preseason poll this year and projected by the preseason model here to do so. But, in both that preseason poll and the preseason model’s projections, TCU was supposed to be the Sooners’ chief challenger. The Horned Frogs went 11-2 last year for their ninth 11-win season in their last 12 under longtime head coach Gary Patterson and ended the year with a 39.77 rating, good for No. 4 in the model’s rankings. But they fell to 6-6 this regular season. Projected to be the No. 10 team in the country with a 28.69 rating, TCU instead currently sits at No. 37 in the model’s rankings with a 22.69 rating. The Horned Frogs were projected to win 9.23 games this year, 3.23 more than they actually won, the 11th-worst difference between projected and actual victories in the nation.

4. Georgia

The Bulldogs had high hopes for this season with the arrival of blue-chip quarterback Jacob Eason and head coach Kirby Smart. Georgia went 10-3 in Mark Richt’s last season on the job and ended the year with a 30.65 rating, checking in at No. 18 in the country. Georgia’s preseason rating of 31.42 rating put it at No. 8 in the country but it is currently at No. 42 with a 20.99 rating. The Bulldogs were projected to win 9.6 regular season games but instead went 7-5. Their 10.43-point ratings drop (No. 20), 34-point rankings drop (No. 19) and 2.6-win difference in projected and actual wins (No. 20) were all among the 20 worst in the country this year.

3. Tennessee

Another SEC East team with a lot of promise coming into this year, the Volunteers were projected to be among the most improved teams in the nation. They were No. 51 at the end of last year with a 18.50 rating but were No. 16 in the preseason model’s rankings with a 26.51 rating. But Tennessee instead slipped to No. 75 with a 11.47 rating. The Volunteers’ rating dropped 15.04 points from the beginning of the year to the end of the regular season, causing them to plummet 59 spots in the model’s rankings — the fourth-biggest such decline in the country.

2. Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish went 11-2 last year, with both losses coming to elite teams and going down to the wire. They lost a lot to the NFL coming into this season but were still projected to be a legitimate national title contender in 2016, with a 32.65 rating in the preseason, good for No. 5 in the model’s rankings. Notre Dame, despite a tough schedule, was projected to win 9.69 games but instead went a mere 4-8. The Irish won 5.69 fewer games than they were projected to win — the worst in the nation.

1. UCLA

After going 8-5 in Josh Rosen’s promising freshman season, big things were expected from the Bruins this season. But UCLA took a step back, losing Rosen after six games when it was 3-3 and proceeding to finish the season by losing five of its last six contests. UCLA was No. 23 in the preseason rankings with a 24.16 rating but are now a woeful No. 103 with a 2.75 rating. The 21.41-point drop and 80-spot freefall in the model’s rankings were both the worst in the country.

Christian Corona is a contributing writer to 247Sports focusing on analytics-oriented college sports content. He is a data analytics consultant based in New York whose college football model went 54.1% picking every FBS game against the spread over the last two months of the 2015 regular season and better than 53.5% six of the last ten weeks of this season. You can reach him at @ChristianC0rona on Twitter.