by Aaron Schatz

So, which team has the best defense in the NFL this year? The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed just 12.3 points per game, the best figure in the league. The Houston Texans, as crazy as it sounds, are leading the league with just 273.5 yards allowed per game. Cleveland actually leads the league with just 4.5 yards allowed per play. And a lot of fans would just forget about which teams lead in these various categories and instead go with the defense with the strongest track record of dominance over the last season and a half, the Seattle Seahawks.

Well, DVOA doesn't have any of these teams as the top defense of 2013. It has a surprise team instead: the 4-4 Arizona Cardinals.

Yes, the Cardinals move into the top spot in defense at -19.1% DVOA despite not playing in Week 9, as Seattle's near-loss to Tampa Bay drops the Seahawks into second place. The Cardinals have a strong all-around defense, ranking second against the run and third against the pass.

Why does Football Outsiders put the Cardinals so far ahead of their rank in points allowed (21.8 per game, 11th) or yards per play (5.0, eighth)? Well, one reason is turnovers. The Cardinals are second in the NFL with 2.4 takeaways per game. (DVOA doesn't actually give them as much credit as that number would indicate, because they've recovered seven of ten fumbles.) The Cardinals also get better on more important downs. They're just average on first downs, but have the league's best defensive DVOA on second downs and rank third on third and fourth downs. Finally, there's the issue of schedule. So far the Cardinals have played the league's fourth hardest schedule of opposing offenses.

Some credit has to go to defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. We thought that the Cardinals defense was going to be in trouble this year, with previous defensive coordinator Ray Horton leaving for Cleveland. Horton has made the Browns better, but his departure has not made the Cardinals worse. Bowles looked like a terrible hire as defensive coordinator when you considered the way the Eagles defense crashed and burned when he took over as interim coordinator halfway through the 2012 season, and Arizona was due for some regression on defense after improving from 20th in 2011 to sixth in 2012. There were plenty of reasons to expect this defense to have problems in 2013, but they've been outstanding. Tyrann Mathieu has been a Rookie of the Year candidate, John Abraham has been a strong addition to the pass rush, and Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell are both excellent on the defensive line. Patrick Peterson is now one of the league's top corners, and the Cardinals rank fourth in DVOA against No. 1 receivers and sixth against No. 2 recievers.

Unfortunately, Bruce Arians hasn't been able to put together an offense that complements the Cardinals' strong defense, even Carson Palmer providing an upgrade at the quarterback position compared to last year's mess. Arizona is just 29th in offensive DVOA. Add that to average special teams, and you end up with a team that's 4-4 and ranks 14th in the league overall.

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In this week's Quick Reads, you saw that Nick Foles didn't make our list of the best quarterback games ever despite throwing seven touchdown passes. The main reason was quantity, not quality; because our list was based on DYAR, it gives more value to games where players have more passes or runs.

Team DVOA, of course is a different story. It's a per-play statistic, not a total value stat, and by measuring team DVOA we can also incorporate a strong running day where Eagles backs had 98 yards on 19 carries. Put it all together, and the Eagles end up with the fifth-highest single-game offensive DVOA in DVOA history. Here's a list of every game above 90.0%. The links in the scores will take you to each game's boxscore.

Top Offensive DVOA Games, 1989-2013 (Regular Season Only) TEAM OPP WEEK YEAR OFF DVOA SCORE OPP RK

DEF DVOA SD NYG 3 2005 113.8% 45-23 13 KC DET 15 2003 105.0% 45-17 21 SF CHI 17 1991 98.8% 52-14 6 STL SD 5 2000 98.6% 57-31 9 PHI OAK 9 2013 97.8% 49-20 27 DEN DAL 2 1998 97.0% 42-23 24 SD JAC 13 2011 95.1% 38-14 5 IND MIA 2 2009 93.6% 27-23 18 KC MIA 4 2002 93.1% 48-30 2 SD MIN 10 2003 91.4% 42-28 23 DAL NYG 1 2007 91.0% 45-35 13 NE MIA 7 2007 90.3% 49-28 31

The Chargers gained 485 yards in the best offensive DVOA game ever, or 8.7 yards per play, and their only turnover was a fumble recovered by the Giants. However, the game listed from the 2003 Chargers was probably even more interesting. The Chargers were 2-6 going into this game, and they stomped a Vikings team that came in 6-2. Drew Brees was injured, so Doug Flutie was the starting quarterback. Even more remarkable is the way the Chargers' offense collapsed the following week. In Week 10, San Diego beat Minnesota 42-28 with 458 yards, no turnovers, and 91.4% offensive DVOA. In Week 11, the same Chargers team again had Flutie at quarterback and lost 37-8 to Denver, with just 96 yards, four turnovers, and -98.0% offensive DVOA.

The other game that might stand out is the 2009 game where the Colts got one of the highest DVOA ratings ever with just 27 points. That was the Monday Night Football game that showed everyone how meaningless time of possession was. The Dolphins had the ball for 45:07 and 84 plays compared to just 14:53 and 35 plays for the Colts. The Colts gained 10.2 yards per play and won the game.

BEST AND WORST DVOA EVER WATCH

The gradual increase in the strength of the opponent adjustments mean that the Denver Broncos dropped a little bit this week without even playing a game. As a result, the Broncos have almost dropped off the list of the best teams in DVOA history. Only a dozen teams have ever put up at least 40% DVOA through Week 9, and the Broncos are the last team in that dozen.

Jacksonville was also saw its rating drop this week despite being on its bye week. In Jacksonville's case, the issue wasn't opponent adjustments getting stronger, but rather opponent adjustments changing as past Jacksonville opponents like Seattle, St. Louis, and especially Oakland all played worse than usual in Week 9. That moves Jacksonville back into the top spot (if you can call it that) as the worst team DVOA has ever tracked.

However, when it comes to watching for the best and worst DVOA ratings ever, I'm not sure anything quite matches what's going on with special teams this year. Houston special teams cost the Texans an estimated minus-10.4 points compared to average this week, mostly thanks to three missed field goals. That's enough to move the Texans down to 31st in special teams. Of course, it isn't like the Giants got better on their bye week. As a result, we now have three 2013 teams sitting among the dozen worst special teams DVOA ratings through Week 9, going back to 1989. That's just crazy. We estimate that the Giants have cost themselves 3.6 points per game with bad special teams, the Texans have cost themselves 4.0 points per game, and the Redskins have cost themselves 4.5 points per game. Houston and Washington are below average in all five phases of special teams that we measure. The Giants are above average on kickoffs and close to average on field goals and kick returns, but their punts and punt coverage have been horrific. Right now, we estimate that the Giants have cost themselves minus-23.4 points of estimated field position on punts. That would be the fifth-worst figure since 1989, and there's still half a season left.

The current version of DVOA normalizes every year to 0.0%, which means that these three pathetic special teams units (and the slightly less pathetic Tennessee Titans, at -8.1% DVOA) should skew the average and lead to more teams with positive special teams DVOA than with negative special teams DVOA. Surprisingly, that's not the case. We still have 16 teams above average, and 16 teams below. However, there are a lot more good special teams than bad. Ten different teams have special teams DVOA above 4.0%, while only the four teams mentioned in this section have special teams DVOA below -4.0%.

BEST TOT DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 9 x BEST OFF DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 9 x WORST TOT DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 9 x WORST OFF DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 9 x WORST ST DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 9 Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA 2007 NE 73.8% x 2007 NE 47.0% x 2013 JAC -66.3% x 2005 SF -47.9% x 2010 SD -19.0% 1991 WAS 58.8% x 1999 WAS 46.8% x 2005 SF -63.3% x 1992 SEA -47.8% x 2008 MIN -14.5% 2001 PHI 51.8% x 1998 DEN 38.2% x 1993 TB -58.3% x 2010 CAR -47.3% x 2013 WAS -14.3% 1996 GB 47.9% x 2004 IND 36.7% x 2009 DET -55.5% x 2013 JAC -45.1% x 1995 PHI -12.6% 1990 CHI 47.7% x 1993 DAL 35.8% x 2009 OAK -52.5% x 2007 SF -42.0% x 2013 HOU -12.8% 2007 IND 46.0% x 2013 DEN 35.5% x 1991 IND -52.2% x 1996 STL -41.9% x 1997 STL -12.5% 2003 KC 44.4% x 1995 DAL 35.3% x 1999 CIN -50.0% x 2002 HOU -41.1% x 1997 PHI -12.3% 2007 DAL 41.7% x 2000 STL 35.0% x 1996 STL -48.7% x 2009 OAK -40.8% x 1999 CIN -12.2% 2002 TB 41.4% x 2002 KC 34.5% x 2002 HOU -48.6% x 2006 OAK -40.1% x 1996 ARI -11.7% 1994 DAL 41.4% x 2000 IND 34.4% x 2007 SF -48.4% x 2004 MIA -38.6% x 1994 HOIL -11.6% 2009 NE 41.2% x 2011 GB 34.0% x 1999 CLE -48.2% x 1992 IND -38.5% x 2006 ARI -11.4% 2013 DEN 41.1% x 2005 DEN 33.9% x 1998 PHI -47.3% x 1991 PHI -37.8% x 2013 NYG -11.4%

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During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 9 are:

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU (Limited Edition): 9 rec, 229 yards, 3 TD, led all WR with 116 DYAR

(Limited Edition): 9 rec, 229 yards, 3 TD, led all WR with 116 DYAR Duane Brown, LT, HOU: Allowed no sacks or hurries vs. Colts

Allowed no sacks or hurries vs. Colts Quinton Coples, OLB, NYJ: 3 QB hits, 4 hurries, TFL on fourth-and-1

3 QB hits, 4 hurries, TFL on fourth-and-1 Darrelle Revis, CB, TB: Allowed just eight yards on two pass targets

Allowed just eight yards on two pass targets Ryan Succop, K, KC: 5-for-6 touchbacks on kickoffs, 3-for-3 FG

We also have some extra special Limited Edition players available this week, celebrating Football Outsiders' choices for the major NFL awards as of midseason. These are part of a big Madden 25 Ultimate Team content update on Thursday called "Road to the Playoffs."

MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, DEN

Offensive Player of the Year: Calvin Johnson, WR, DET

Defensive Player of the Year: Dontari Poe, DT, KC

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Kyle Long, RG, CHI

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Kiko Alonso, MLB, BUF

Comeback Player of the Year: LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, KC

A couple of these awards were pretty difficult to choose. We were also considering Justin Houston, J.J. Watt, Richard Sherman, and Earl Thomas for Defensive Player of the Year, and we were considering Eddie Lacy, Giovani

Bernard, Keenan Allen, and Jordan Reed for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Here's a look at all seven special FO Midseason Awards players:

Here's a bit of a description of "Road to the Playoffs" from the guys at EA Sports: "As real-world NFL players build momentum into the playoffs, Madden Ultimate Team (MUT) players will also improve with game-changing upgrades. Elite and gold players that were in packs have been replaced by new versions, many with different chemistries and others with an overall rating increase. You'll also have an increased chance of finding your favorite players with the chemistries you want. All elite players will have dual-chemistries, and there will be multiple versions of players in packs boasting different combinations of chemistries. The midseason update will also include new solo challenges and collections."

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All 2013 stat pages are now updated or will be updated in the next few minutes, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium database.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through nine weeks of 2013, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

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OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

Because it is early in the season, opponent strength is at only 90 percent; it will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 41.1% 1 40.3% 1 7-1 35.5% 1 -0.2% 16 5.5% 6 2 SEA 30.0% 2 29.5% 2 8-1 6.4% 13 -17.5% 2 6.0% 5 3 CAR 26.0% 4 26.9% 3 5-3 10.7% 10 -13.6% 3 1.7% 14 4 CHI 24.2% 6 23.9% 4 5-3 16.5% 5 -4.8% 10 2.9% 11 5 IND 20.2% 3 20.8% 5 6-2 17.0% 4 1.7% 20 4.9% 7 6 SF 17.3% 8 17.0% 7 6-2 14.1% 8 -2.6% 14 0.7% 15 7 NO 17.1% 7 17.3% 6 6-2 14.8% 7 -2.7% 13 -0.4% 19 8 CIN 16.0% 5 16.2% 8 6-3 1.7% 15 -10.1% 6 4.1% 10 9 KC 14.7% 10 13.9% 10 9-0 -3.6% 18 -12.0% 4 6.3% 3 10 GB 14.4% 9 14.5% 9 5-3 23.5% 2 7.1% 26 -2.1% 25 11 NE 12.9% 13 13.6% 12 7-2 1.9% 14 -4.6% 11 6.3% 2 12 DAL 12.8% 11 13.8% 11 5-4 6.9% 12 0.9% 18 6.8% 1 13 DET 6.3% 12 6.2% 13 5-3 13.3% 9 5.1% 24 -1.9% 24 14 ARI 2.5% 14 3.8% 14 4-4 -16.5% 29 -19.1% 1 0.0% 18 15 SD -1.5% 15 -1.3% 15 4-4 21.4% 3 22.2% 32 -0.8% 21 16 PHI -1.6% 24 -2.1% 16 4-5 14.8% 6 13.4% 30 -3.0% 26 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 MIA -2.1% 22 -2.9% 17 4-4 -3.9% 19 -3.0% 12 -1.2% 22 18 ATL -4.5% 18 -4.9% 18 2-6 6.9% 11 10.9% 29 -0.6% 20 19 NYJ -5.1% 23 -5.0% 19 5-4 -22.3% 31 -11.0% 5 6.3% 4 20 BUF -5.5% 17 -6.5% 20 3-6 -8.6% 21 -6.4% 7 -3.4% 27 21 BAL -8.1% 19 -6.7% 21 3-5 -16.1% 27 -5.6% 8 2.3% 12 22 CLE -9.8% 21 -8.8% 22 4-5 -10.7% 24 3.5% 21 4.4% 9 23 TB -10.3% 27 -11.0% 24 0-8 -8.8% 22 0.3% 17 -1.3% 23 24 PIT -10.9% 16 -10.6% 23 2-6 -0.4% 17 10.6% 28 0.0% 17 25 MIN -11.7% 25 -11.1% 25 1-7 -9.9% 23 6.1% 25 4.4% 8 26 STL -13.2% 26 -13.9% 26 3-6 -10.9% 25 4.4% 22 2.1% 13 27 TEN -14.0% 20 -15.0% 27 4-4 -4.5% 20 1.4% 19 -8.1% 29 28 WAS -18.4% 30 -17.6% 28 3-5 0.6% 16 4.7% 23 -14.3% 32 29 HOU -22.6% 29 -23.5% 30 2-6 -11.9% 26 -2.1% 15 -12.8% 31 30 NYG -22.6% 31 -22.4% 29 2-6 -16.1% 28 -4.9% 9 -11.4% 30 31 OAK -36.1% 28 -37.2% 31 3-5 -22.2% 30 10.1% 27 -3.8% 28 32 JAC -66.3% 32 -64.2% 32 0-8 -45.1% 32 21.4% 31 0.2% 16

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).