Rand Paul has crashed the party for Kentucky Secretary of State and establishment pick Trey Grayson (pictured). Kentucky contender hits obstacle

If Republicans thought their headaches in the Kentucky Senate race were over when Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) announced his retirement, they were wrong.

Rand Paul, the son of former presidential candidate and Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul, has crashed the party for Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who is widely regarded as the establishment pick to succeed the 77-year-old Bunning.


While Paul, an ophthalmologist, is a long shot, his presence in the contest all but guarantees that Grayson will be embroiled in an expensive and potentially damaging primary contest.

It’s not the scenario the GOP was hoping for. Party officials had been maneuvering behind the scenes for months to ease out Bunning, the irascible former Major League Baseball pitcher who was widely viewed as unlikely to hold his seat against a credible Democrat. The idea was to clear a path for Grayson, who has twice been elected statewide.

“From a larger tactical perspective, I think the fact that both Grayson and Paul will raise and spend a lot of money is something the party wanted to avoid,” said Scott Jennings, a Louisville-based GOP strategist who served as deputy political director in the George W. Bush White House.

“I think it is frustrating. There certainly is a dynamic where you’d rather [Paul] not be there,” said Ted Jackson, a top Republican strategist in the state who is supporting Grayson. “If you could wish it away, you would wish it away. [Grayson is] going to have to spend money in a primary campaign.”

The heart of the GOP establishment’s problem is Paul’s ability to generate campaign cash through the same channels as his father. A widely publicized Aug. 20 “money bomb” Internet outreach to his father’s grass-roots donor list raised about $800,000. Just as troubling for GOP officials, an August SurveyUSA automated poll showed Grayson leading Paul just 37 percent to 26 percent — putting the insurgent Paul within striking distance.

All the while, Paul has sought to rally the support of his father’s backers — libertarian-minded voters who are politically active, not firmly tethered to the GOP and willing to donate.

“The risk is underestimating [Paul] — not because he is such a great candidate but because he inherits a grass-roots organization from his father,” said one Washington-based strategist who is watching the race closely.

But even as Grayson gears up for a primary, there is considerable doubt among state Republicans about how much traction Paul can actually gain, regardless of how much he spends.

While Kentucky’s Republican primary electorate is conservative, party insiders say, it is traditionally conservative — not necessarily anti-government conservative.

Either way, an expensive primary risks depleting Grayson’s coffers for what is all but certain to be a hard-fought general election campaign. And Kentucky, which includes the Cincinnati and Louisville media markets, is not an inexpensive state in which to run a campaign: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and his Democratic challenger, Bruce Lunsford, spent more than $32 million combined in their slugfest last year.

There is also concern among GOP strategists that Paul, who is attacking Grayson on his conservative credentials on a near-daily basis, may dampen enthusiasm on the right for the secretary of state.

In an interview with POLITICO, Paul painted Grayson as a soft conservative, slamming him for once voting for President Bill Clinton and questioning why he accepted donations from senators who had voted in support of the Troubled Asset Relief Program bailout.

“I just don’t think he has a lot of hard or strong beliefs,” said Paul.

Republicans now say that ignoring Paul is no longer an option, leading them to circle the wagons around Grayson.

McConnell — the state’s most powerful Republican — isn’t endorsing Grayson outright, but he isn’t leaving any doubt that Grayson has his backing. McConnell is hosting a September fundraiser for Grayson with more than half of the Senate GOP conference scheduled to be in attendance. And two key McConnell political hands, Nate Hodson and Justin Brasell, have signed on to head up Grayson’s campaign.

Kentucky Republicans say Grayson will run a no-holds-barred primary campaign that targets the same grass-roots conservative activists on whom Paul is focusing.

“Anytime you’re dealing with an opponent who has raised the kind of money Paul has, you have to take it seriously, and you have to go out and win — and win convincingly,” said Jennings.

Some in the party see a silver lining in Paul’s candidacy. At 37, Grayson remains largely untested politically and, as a nominee, would face a general election dogfight against one of two seasoned Democratic pols: Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo or Attorney General Jack Conway.

“I frankly think that Grayson needs an opponent,” said Al Cross, a longtime Kentucky political watcher who is director of the University of Kentucky’s Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues. “He needs a worthy opponent to sharpen his skills.”