Paul Manafort, former campaign manager for Donald Trump, waves while exiting federal court in Washington, D.C. Aaron P. Bernstein | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Paul Manafort's surprisingly light first sentence in his legal battle with special counsel Robert Mueller shocked experts and energized President Donald Trump's supporters. But Manafort, who ran Trump's presidential campaign for several months in 2016, could face a less-lenient judge in his final sentencing next week. The 69-year-old longtime Republican operative was given a 47-month prison sentence Thursday night, after being convicted in Virginia federal court on eight criminal counts including tax and bank fraud. That was much shorter than the 19-to-24 years in prison recommended by federal sentencing guidelines. Manafort was also slapped with a $50,000 fine. That was the bare minimum recommended by federal guidelines, which had suggested a fine of up to $24 million.

The sentence was immediately viewed as a crushing loss for Mueller's prosecutors. While Judge T.S. Ellis had been widely expected to hand down a sentence below what the guidelines suggested, few had predicted he would give Manafort such a light prison term. Mueller's team clearly wanted a more severe punishment. They had blasted Manafort in recent court filings as an unrepentant felon and liar who gave no indication that he would avoid committing crimes in the future. And while they did not recommend a specific sentence, they did not dispute the hefty prison term suggested by the guidelines.

Charges against Manafort

Most of the charges against Manafort related to income earned from his work as a political consultant for Ukraine's Russia-backed former president, Viktor Yanukovych. Manafort was accused by Mueller of defrauding the U.S. and its financial institutions after Yanukovich lost power in Ukraine, which dried up Manafort's consulting operation there. Mueller's team accused Manafort of hiding millions of dollar in income from the U.S. government in overseas accounts, and lying to banks to secure millions of dollars in loans. Much of that money, prosecutors argued, was used to maintain Manafort's opulent lifestyle. Despite that long-term misconduct, Ellis said before delivering his sentence that Manafort has "lived an otherwise blameless life." Manafort has "been a good friend to others, a generous person," Ellis added. While many legal experts were surprised by the leniency in Virginia, they predict that he will be slapped with a harsher sentence next Wednesday, when he appears in Washington, D.C., federal court before Judge Amy Berman Jackson. After being convicted at trial in Virginia last August, Manafort struck a plea deal with prosecutors on the eve of his second trial in D.C., which would have dealt with crimes related to the Virginia case, as well as to witness tampering. But that cooperation agreement imploded several months later, when Mueller's team accused Manafort of breaking the deal by lying to investigators.

A tougher audience