1 Duke I'm going to keep Duke No. 1 despite the news that Harry Giles just had a third knee surgery because, truth is, Mike Krzyzewski can replace him in the starting lineup with another five-star froncourt player, if he wants. Regardless, this is not ideal. It suggests that even if Giles is cleared to resume basketball activities at some point in November he probably won't be back to normal for a while, if ever. So it's time to decrease the likelihood of Duke winning the 2017 national championship. The Blue Devils are still the favorite, I think. But a reduced version of Giles lowers their chances considerably. -- 25-6

2 Kentucky The Wildcats lost three underclassmen to the NBA Draft -- plus Alex Poythress to graduation and Marcus Lee and Charles Matthews via transfer. But, as usual, John Calipari reloaded with a strong recruiting class featuring five five-star prospects. The backcourt of De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk should be the most exciting in college basketball. -- 25-6

3 Kansas The Jayhawks will likely have a one-and-done player for the fifth straight season thanks to the enrollment of Josh Jackson, whom 247Sports ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2016. Barring a surprise, Bill Self will win his 13th consecutive Big 12 title this season. -- 28-3

4 Villanova The Wildcats are without two of their top four scorers from last season's national championship team, including captain Ryan Arcidiacono. And their top incoming freshman, Omari Spellman, has been ruled in eligible. But there are still enough pieces in place to give Jay Wright a legitimate shot at back-to-back titles. -- 24-7

5 Xavier If Villanova doesn't win the Big East, Xavier likely will -- although the offseason suspension of Myles Davis is less than ideal. At this point, it's reasonable to assume Davis will return to the team at some point. If he does, the Musketeers will have the top three scorers from last season's 28-win team back on the court. -- 19-13

6 N. Carolina The Tar Heels are returning six of the top eight scorers from last season's 33-win team and adding three top-60 prospects -- most notably Tony Bradley. So Roy Williams has a real chance to make his ninth Final Four and to maybe become just the sixth coach in Division I history to win at least three national titles. -- 14-19

7 Oregon The Ducks will likely start the season without Dillon Brooks, which means they'll likely start the season without their leading scorer from last season who is now recovering from foot surgery. But as long as he's back in time for Pac-12 play, Oregon should be the favorite to win the league for the second straight season. -- 24-7

8 Virginia Memphis transfer Austin Nichols was terrific during Virginia's offseason trip to Spain and figures to make an immediate impact. Combine him with Virginia's returning pieces and a top-10 recruiting class, and the Cavaliers will likely finish in the top 10 at KenPom for the fourth straight year. 1 23-7

9 Indiana The loss of Yogi Ferrell hurts, undeniably. But Tom Crean still has enough good veteran pieces -- Thomas Bryant, OG Anunoby, James Blackmon, etc. -- to make a run at winning back-to-back Big Ten regular-season championships. 1 20-12

10 UCLA Judging by the mood of UCLA fans, you'd think Steve Alford has something other than a preseason top-15 team and top-five recruiting class set to sign in November. Yes, last season was bad. But the immediate and longterm future both seem bright in Westwood. 1 19-12

11 Wisconsin Greg Gard proved last season that he can coach at a high level once he replaced Bo Ryan. Now he's also recruiting at a high level, which suggests the Badgers will remain nationally relevant for many years to come. 1 21-10

12 Arizona Sean Miller is still looking for his first Final Four, and the late loss of five-star prospect Terrance Ferguson won't make making it this season any easier. Regardless, the Wildcats should be able to win at least 25 games for the fifth consecutive season and maybe make their fourth Sweet 16 in a five-year span. 1 21-11

13 Saint Mary's I know it's weird to see anybody other than Gonzaga as the highest-ranked West Coast Conference school. But Randy Bennett returns everybody from a 29-win team and should have a real shot at making the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2010. 1 26-8

14 Gonzaga Mark Few and his staff have been great at landing impactful transfers over the years, and this season will be no different. The presence of Jordan Mathews, Nigel Williams-Goss and Jonathan Williams -- plus the return of a healthy Przemek Karnowski -- means the Zags have the pieces to win at least 25 games for a 10th consecutive year. 1 31-2

15 Michigan St. Nobody has had a worse preseason than Michigan State. The Spartans have lost both Gavin Schilling and UNLV transfer Ben Carter to knee injuries; there's no known timetable for a possible return. Combine that with the fact that Tom Izzo was already going to be without five of his top six scorers from last season - most notably Big Ten Player of the Year Denzel Valentine - and it might be a stretch to even keep the Spartans in the top 15, at this point. 7 22-9

16 Louisville Rick Pitino is high on this team despite the losses of Damion Lee, Trey Lewis and Chinanu Onuaku. Part of that is rooted in the arrival of McDonald's All-American V.J. King and Penn transfer Tony Hicks, the latter of whom averaged 13.2 points two seasons ago for the Quakers. -- 24-7

17 Texas Shaka Smart enrolled a top-five recruiting class highlighted by Jarrett Allen and Andrew Jones. That influx of talent will help offset several meaningful losses and allow the Texas coach to make his seventh straight NCAA Tournament. -- 19-12

18 Rhode Island The Atlantic 10 race should be fun and between Rhode Island, Dayton and VCU. But I'll give the Rams a slight edge thanks to the return from injury of E.C. Matthews, who could be an All-American candidate. -- 21-9

19 Connecticut Daniel Hamilton's decision to leave UConn hurts. But Kevin Ollie still has enough quality returning parts -- and a top-10 recruiting class -- to make the Huskies the favorite in the American Athletic Conference. -- 19-12

20 Purdue Caleb Swanigan's decision to return to Purdue allows Matt Painter to enter the season with three of his top four scorers from a team that won 26 games. The frontcourt of Swanigan and Isaac Haas should develop into one of the nation's best, and Purdue should be in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year. -- 16-15

21 Syracuse The addition of Nebraska transfer Andrew White helped ease the losses of Michael Gbinije and Malachi Richardson. He averaged 16.6 points and 5.9 rebounds for the Huskers last season and will fit nicely beside Tyler Lydon. -- 18-14

22 California Ivan Rabb's decision to do another year of college means Cal is returning one of the best pro prospects in the sport. The late addition of four-star point guard Charlie Moore, a former Memphis signee, was another positive offseason development that should help the Bears remain relevant in the Pac-12. -- 14-18

23 Creighton Marcus Foster averaged double-digits at Kansas State for two seasons before transferring to Creighton. He'll team with Maurice Watson to help the Bluejays compete for a top-three spot in the Big East. -- 24-7

24 Iowa St. The return of Monte Morris ensures Iowa State will get one more season of strong point guard play. He's one of three double-digit scorers back from a 23-win team. -- 12-20

25 W. Virginia I left West Virginia unranked last preseason, which was foolish in hindsight. So I've decided to not make that mistake again even though the losses of Devin Williams and Jaysean Paige are significant. -- 21-10