Nate Ryan, Special to USA TODAY Sports

Denny Hamlin sits third in points behind title contenders Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson

Pit road gaffes, fuel mileage woes have cost Joe Gibbs Racing driver during Chase

Driver has shown more maturity, focus since he lost 2010 title to Johnson at season finale

Somehow, when the smoke cleared from 25 wildly gyrating cars Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, Denny Hamlin still was in the championship hunt. Barely.

He lost the draft early and was in danger of going a lap down before being saved by a caution flag. He was mired deep in traffic late — 25th before the final restart — and was facing a precipitous points drop before the last-lap wreck that wiped out more than half the field.

"It was pretty much an off weekend for us," Hamlin said. "We didn't make a whole lot of noise and didn't run very fast."

His team can't afford another letdown over the final six races if it wants to overtake Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson because it's unlikely the two primary title contenders will falter as Hamlin's team already has.

It's certainly too early to write off the Chesterfield, Va., native, who often has been virtually unbeatable at Martinsville Speedway, won in March at Phoenix International Raceway and has exhibited blinding speed on the 1.5-mile ovals that account for the other four tracks left on the schedule.

But if the gauge for winning a title is execution, the Chase is shaping up as Johnson vs. Keselowski, who leads by 14 points. Though Hamlin is only 23 points behind in third, there have been too many red flags highlighting the insurmountable weaknesses of inattention to detail.

ESPN analyst Ray Evernham, who set the gold standard for the modern-era crew chief in guiding Jeff Gordon to three of Gordon's four championships, says some blame for the gaffes lies with Darian Grubb. Hamlin's crew chief is a whiz at building sleek cars with cutting-edge setups and made some brilliant strategy calls in guiding Tony Stewart to five victories and a title in last year's Chase.

But Grubb's team hasn't been as fundamentally sound as Johnson's No. 48 Chevrolet and Keselowski's No. 2 Dodge, and Evernham believes it's because of the fastidious, strong-willed personalities of their team leaders.

"The two toughest guys in this battle are going to be Chad Knaus (Johnson's crew chief) and Paul Wolfe (Keselowski's)," Evernham said. "Their attention to detail is impeccable, and that makes a difference. You can't afford to make a mistake because there's too many other things in this sport that can take you out, like a flat tire. You don't need to be doing it to yourself."

At Chicagoland, a miscue on the final pit stop caused Hamlin's Camry to run dry on fuel and turned a strong run into a 16th.

At Dover, he overcame his mental block of the track by sitting on the pole and leading 39 laps, but was forced to surrender a top five on a late stop because of fuel mileage that was inferior to Keselowski and Johnson.

Even when Hamlin trounced the field with a victory at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, he started 32nd because of an inexplicable error by his team in qualifying. The crew cost Hamlin a surefire shot at the pole position by leaving his tires set on the incorrect air pressures — a blunder that could have been rectified at any point during a two-hour window between the end of practice and his qualifying lap.

Having endured some self-destructive episodes of his own — leading when entering the 2010 season finale, his spin at Homestead-Miami Speedway helped hand the title to Johnson — Hamlin has shored up his mental fortitude after spending an offseason outside of the NASCAR bubble in Scottsdale, Ariz. The expectant father has seemed more confident, determined and focused, and the gritty performance at Dover epitomized the newfound embrace of the power of positive thinking.

"Denny has matured and come a long way mentally," Evernham said. "Denny's ready, but there's something going on there that ultimately might keep him from the title."

Once a rookie who would disparage his crew for slow pit stops, Hamlin has emerged as a leader. He absolved gas man Scott Wood after the gaffe at Chicagoland. He defended the team's strategy at Talladega as sound because it was based on fuel scenarios that were difficult to predict.

"The crew feeds off the driver's emotions, and it transfers to them," he said. "I've learned the last seven years if you try to stay positive, they'll make it up to you."

Hamlin will need a few more of those paybacks to wear the 2012 crown.