Picking up where I left off in Part 1, we’re dealing with a rough estimate of $7.65 million in cap space and a need for a Bottom-6 forward and a Top-6 forward. If Jarmo can resign Vanek, that would fill out the Bottom-6 out quite nicely. Vanek’s current cap hit is only $2 million, but I could definitely see him wanting a raise. For simplicity, we’ll say resigning Vanek would leave right around $5 million to spend on a Top-6 forward. To visualize, those forward lines might look something like this:

Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson Foligno-________-Anderson Jenner-Wennberg-Vanek Sedlak-Dubinsky-Bjorkstrand

Alternatively, not resigning Vanek could leave the forward lines looking like:

Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson Foligno-________-Anderson Jenner-Wennberg-Bjorkstrand Sedlak-Dubinsky-Milano(or another winger like Calvert)

I’m not a big fan of Milano on the 4th line because he hasn’t proven he’s trustworthy defensively and doesn’t fit very well on a checking line. However, I also don’t think he’s earned a spot higher in the lineup, leaving him in limbo regarding the lineup. This could obviously change before/during training camp, but I’m going off what we know now.

Potential Outside Free Agent Signings

With the free agent signing period opening on July 1, Jarmo will have a couple options for obtaining players to improve the lineup. However, because of the limited cap flexibility, I believe Jarmo will focus his attention on extensions for next year’s pending FAs instead of trying to bribe new players into coming to Columbus. Regardless, here’s a list of players I see as a potential fit (and why I don’t think they’ll actually become a Blue Jacket).

John Tavares – C (82 GP, 37-47-84): As easily the biggest name on the FA market this summer, Tavares will likely garner a bidding war for his services for the next 7 years (or 8 with the Islanders if he so chooses). The contract in question will almost certainly be worth at least $10 million per season, if not more. I will not be even a little surprised if he becomes the second highest paid player in the league behind Connor McDavid ($12.5 million/year for 8 years). Simply put, the Blue Jackets can’t afford to sign him. Even if Jarmo was able to work some deals and free up the cap space, his contract would almost certainly lead to an inability to resign Panarin, Bobrovsky, and Werenski. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t want Tavares on the team (I mean, who wouldn’t), but I don’t see any realistic way to make it happen without severely handicapping the team going forward.

Paul Stastny – C (82 GP, 16-37-53): I’m including Stastny because I think he’s a great player and would be a great addition to the Blue Jackets lineup. On top of a very solid regular season, he has 14 points in 12 playoff games and has played a huge role in getting the Winnipeg Jets to the Western Conference Finals. However, he’s going to turn 33 next season, and his best years are almost certainly behind him. It will probably cost at least $5 million per year for his services, and I could see him wanting a 4-5 year deal, which would have a high risk of turning into a very bad contract if his production falls off with age. I’m sure Jarmo will do his due diligence and explore Stastny as an option, but I don’t expect the two to reach an agreement.

James Van Reimsdyk – LW (81 GP, 36-18-54): JVR isn’t my favorite FA option for the Blue Jackets, but it would be dumb not to consider him as a possibility. He’s a gritty goal scorer and is coming off two of the best seasons of his career at age 29. He might be the league’s best scorer in and around the blue paint, which I think could really benefit the Columbus offense, but the other areas of this game aren’t as strong. Once again, I expect the cap hit and/or contract length to stand in the way of JVR becoming a Blue Jacket, as he’ll likely want a substantial term in the $5 million per year range.

Rick Nash – LW (71 GP, 21-13-34): Ah, yes. The return of a former 1st overall pick, CBJ captain, and fan-favorite would make for a great feel-good story, but he’s realistically a 3rd-line winger at best and doesn’t fit in very well with a lineup that is much younger and faster. If he’s willing to take a team-friendly contract to return to the city that drafted him, I’d like to see how he does in the Bottom-6, but its tough to say how likely that is. I truly hope he eventually returns to Columbus, even if just for a one-day retirement contract, and I fully expect to see #61 hanging from the rafters at Nationwide Arena, but I don’t think the time is right just yet.

Other Notable FAs Joe Thornton – Very old and probably too expensive Riley Nash – Will probably get overpaid coming off one standout season Evander Kane – Not a fan of his character, and he’ll likely be too expensive David Perron – Solid goal scorer, may be the odd-man out in Vegas with so many players needing a raise



Potential Trade Targets

Jarmo doesn’t have a history of signing big names in free agency, which is part of why I don’t think it will happen this time around. However, he does have a few “blockbuster” trades under his belt (perhaps most notably, acquiring Artemi Panarin from Chicago for Brandon Saad). However, the salary cap is once again a factor, and some salaries will definitely have to be moved out to make a trade possible. Unfortunately, teams under a cap crunch are far more likely to trade big-name players, but Columbus is in no position to provide cap relief without including a third team, such as Arizona or Carolina, in the deal. I don’t believe in “untouchable” players, but I expect names like Jenner, Murray, Milano, and Korpisalo to appear most frequently in any trade rumors that pop up. There’s no way I can touch on every possible trade partner for Columbus, but I will briefly touch on a few names I think could get brought up a lot.

Ryan O’Reilly – C, Buffalo Sabres (81 GP, 24-37-61): Before money is brought into the conversation, O’Reilly is an absolutely fantastic fit on the Blue Jackets roster. Even though he’s only 26, he’s scored at least 55 points in 5 of the last 6 seasons (likely would have been 6 of 6 had he not gotten injured after 29 games in 2013). He also takes very few penalties and has become one of the top faceoff takers in the NHL, winning 60% of over 2,000 faceoffs taken in 2017-2018 (both are things the Blue Jackets struggled with mightily this past season). The glaring issue here is that O’Reilly’s contract is for $7.5 million per year for 5 more years (through 2022-2023). In my opinion, that’s $1.5-2.0 million too much, and Columbus would struggle to afford that contract for a 2nd-line center. The term also makes getting 3rd team involved difficult because no team would want to retain 5 years of salary. I’d like to see Jarmo work some magic by sending Dubinsky back to the Sabres and maybe cutting other costs, but that $7.5 million price tag puts a lot of obstacles in the way of bring O’Reilly to Columbus.

JT Miller – LW/C, Tampa Bay Lightning (82 GP, 23-35-58): Miller is tough to gauge because he’s coming off a 58-point season and was scoring nearly a point per game after he was traded to Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, but he only has a relatively small sample size of success, and signing the pending RFA to a big contract would have plenty of risk involved. Depending on how much money he wants, the Lightning may have to trade his rights away with big raises coming up for young studs Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. However, it is for this same reason that he likely won’t be a good fit in Columbus either.

Jeff Carter – C, Los Angeles Kings (27 GP, 13-9-22): Just kidding! F— that guy.

Alex Galchenyuk – LW/C, Montreal Canadiens (82 GP, 19-32-51): Rumors about trading Galchenyuk have been swirling for well over a year now and nothing has come of it yet. Perhaps Montreal isn’t actually looking to trade him, or maybe they just don’t feel they’ve gotten a good enough offer yet. Either way, I wouldn’t expect anything to happen this summer. He had a decently productive season on a terrible Canadiens team and has a reasonable cap hit of $4.9 million for the next 2 seasons. There’s a chance he could find success in Columbus, but I have my reservations about him playing under Tortorella based on what I’ve heard about his character/work ethic. Nothing’s impossible, but I think there’s way more trade talk surrounding Galchenyuk than is warranted.

As I mentioned earlier, there are plenty of other players Jarmo could potentially target in a trade. I just wanted to touch on a few I had noticed (and hopefully give you a good laugh). The most important thing to remember is that you should have absolutely no reason to doubt Jarmo. He stole one of the most dynamic and talented players in the league from Chicago, got a future-Norris Trophy winner from Nashville for Ryan Johansen, and drafted Dubois, a center I believe will soon be better than Johansen, instead of the seemingly unanimous best-available prospect, Jesse Puljujarvi (just to name a few). I have full faith in whatever decisions he makes this summer, and you should too.

Prospects

I’m not going to pretend to have a great grasp on all of our prospects and how close they are to being ready for the NHL, but I will quickly discuss some of the bigger names in the Columbus prospect pool and try to make heads-or-tails of the fantastic group Jarmo has put together. The picture will become clearer as the summer goes on, but most questions probably won’t be answered until training camp.

Gabriel Carlsson – D (Cleveland Monsters, AHL: 33 GP, 2-3-5) Carlsson is a highly-touted prospect by the Columbus management, but he’s had a very up-and-down 12 months since being thrown into action during the team’s first-round playoff loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins a year ago. He played 14 games this season with the Blue Jackets (0-2-2), dealt with injury issues, and spent most of the season with the Monsters. However, one rough season certainly shouldn’t define a player, and I still have very high hopes for Carlsson in the future. His development may take longer than expected, but with his combination of size and athleticism, I think he could easily become a very solid 2nd-pairing defenseman anytime in the next few years. His outlook for the season will depend heavily on what offseason moves Jarmo makes, but he will certainly be fighting for a spot on the NHL roster come training camp.

Vitali Abramov – LW (Victoriaville Tigers, QMJHL: 56 GP, 45-59-104) Perhaps the most exciting prospect on this list, Abramov is coming off of back-to-back 104-point seasons in which he completely dominated the QMJHL. He’s just 5’9 and 170 lbs, but he’s an incredible skater and a dynamic scorer whose play is reminiscent of Artemi Panarin’s. However, the biggest flaw in his game is his lack of ability to handle physical play, which becomes even more important at higher levels of play. Development is difficult to project, but I expect Abramov will need to spend at least part of the 2018-2019 season in the AHL with the Cleveland Monsters before transitioning to the NHL. No matter what happens this season, I expect Abramov to have a very bright future with the Blue Jackets and for him to make a big impact on the team in the near future.

Maxime Fortier – RW (Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL: 61 GP, 32-43-75) The Blue Jackets signed the undrafted Fortier last fall after seeing his development and his leadership skills. He wore the ‘C’ in Halifax this year after 2 seasons with an ‘A’ and demonstrated serious improvement over the course of the year. At 5’10”, he’s a bit undersized, but he makes up for it with his skating, instincts, and hard work, making him an extremely reliable two-way player. It will be interesting to see how he performs at camp and adjusts to the higher level of play, but I expect Fortier to spend most of the season in Cleveland working on his game.

Kole Sherwood – RW (Kitchener Rangers, OHL: 57 GP, 30-30-60) Sherwood was sent back to the OHL for one more season despite being eligible for the AHL this season, and while it was disappointing, he decided to make the most of it. He placed his focus on playing responsibly and earning ice time through hard work instead of just skill. This especially manifested itself in the playoffs (14-12-26 in 19 playoff games) where every shift matters. He will look to continue his hard work this summer in hopes of earning a spot in Columbus, but a year in the AHL will likely be in store in him to help him adjust. The Blue Jackets have a deep forward prospect pool, so they are in no rush to play him in the NHL.

Eric Robinson – LW (Princeton University, NCAA: 36 GP, 17-14-31) The former Princeton captain is the third (and most recent) undrafted free agent signing on this list, and probably has the most to prove. He looked good in his NHL debut against Nashville, but this small sample size leaves a lot to be determined in training camp. When announcing Robinson’s signing, Jarmo was high on his character and his instincts. The 22 year old will need to adjust quickly if he is going to compete with this fellow prospects, but management has high hopes.

Jonathan Davidsson – RW (Djurgårdens IF, SHL: 52 GP, 10-21-31) Many Blue Jackets fans (myself included) didn’t know much about Davidsson until Jarmo’s end-of-season interview, in which he announced the club’s latest rookie signing. As a 6th round pick in last year’s draft (who had gone undrafted the two previous drafts), Davidsson didn’t get much media attention, but Jarmo seems to be extremely confident in his ability. He performed well enough in the SHL playoffs (4-4-8 in 11 playoff games) for Jarmo to say he believes Davidsson has a strong chance to make the NHL roster out of camp, mentioning his elite speed and great work ethic as key reasons (You may have noticed that character and work ethic are things nearly all of these players have in common, and it would be foolish to believe that’s an accident. It’s been a common theme since Jarmo became GM, with players like Dubois, Werenski, and many others). I’ve come to fully trust Jarmo’s judgement, so Davidsson should be a name to watch closely this fall.

Unfortunately, I can’t get to all the promising prospects that the Blue Jackets have lying in store, so I only mentioned the ones I think will be in the NHL or AHL next season. Some were left out because their contract won’t allow them to come to North America until 2019 or later, like Vladislav Gavrikov (KHL – D) and Elvis Merzlikins (NLA – G). Others, like Alexandre Texier (Liiga – C) and Daniil Tarasov (MHL – G), will likely just need more time to develop. Regardless, it should be a very exciting training camp (following a summer that will likely fell much too long) with lots of insight into the future of this team.

The Blue Jackets are coming off two strong seasons with disappointing first-round exits, but the team’s core remains largely intact with only a few holes to fill and plenty of options to choose from. Plenty of tough decisions will have to be made, but Jarmo is just the guy to make all those decisions. The biggest thing that has held the team back the past two seasons was a poorly timed slump by several key players. These need to be learning experiences for one of the youngest teams in the league, so they can play a strong season, beginning to end, and finally make progress in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I think this is shaping up to be the best season in the short history of the Columbus Blue Jackets, but the foundation for that season starts right now.