CAGAYAN DE ORO: Climate change effects on water security pose a significant or higher risk to global security by 2040,” according to the World Climate and Security Report 2020 released last February.

The World Climate and Security Report 2020 is the inaugural edition of the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security, a group of senior military leaders, security experts, and security institutions across the globe dedicated to anticipating, analyzing and addressing the security risks of a changing climate.

“Climate change is clearly a matter of national and global security,” said the report. “Consequently, the international security community has a responsibility to prepare for and to prevent the security risks of climate change, as well as a responsibility to cooperate to meet this unprecedented threat,” it added.





The first of its kind, the report provides global and regional assessments of the security risks of a changing climate, as well as opportunities for addressing them. It addresses a broad spectrum of the security risks of climate change, including:

– Where human security risks spill over into higher-order security risks, such as political instability, conflict, major natural disasters involving significant military and humanitarian responses, mass displacements of peoples, and threats to critical resources and infrastructure;

– Geopolitical impacts of climate change; and

– Impacts of climate change on military and defense, including infrastructure, operations and strategy.

Climate change now more pronounced across almost every region

Based on the report, three overarching observations were seen across almost every region and reflected a commonality of experiences and challenges.

1. Climate change often poses a burden in already fragile societies or countries. Persistent droughts, flooding, natural disasters, etc. are considered “climate change stressors” that make it difficult for fragile societies or countries. When their governments fail to meet critical public needs such as reliable supplies of food and water, the public perceives their governments as ineffective. In turn, this reality can cause people to turn to other organizations – such as extremist groups — to provide basic needs, or to migrate.

2. A growing body of research links climate change to an increased likelihood of conflict, especially in places with existing tensions. A recent study published in the Proceedings of the United States National Academy of Sciences found evidence that risk of armed conflict can be enhanced by a climate-related disaster.

3. Climate change-exacerbated natural disasters may act as threat multipliers in both the world’s most fragile regions, and in more stable regions with underlying and underreported climate vulnerabilities.

Climate change effects on water security pose higher risk to global security

Ninety-eight percent of the respondents perceive that climate change effects on water security will present a significant or higher risk to global security in 2040, declared the Climate Security Risk Perception Survey Results.

Water, as a climate security phenomena, focuses on sea-level rise, droughts, flooding and rainfall variability that drives decrease in the availability of freshwater and contributes to social and political unrest.

According to the survey, “climate security phenomena” were defined as the climate change-exacerbated events that affect global security, including the security environment, security institutions, or security infrastructure. It did not assess opportunities for mitigating these risks.

The Climate Security Risk Perception Survey Results is the first survey to assess perceptions of risk among military and security professionals who are concerned about climate change. Fifty-six international security and military professionals with knowledge of climate risks to security participated in the survey.

Migration and natural disasters, and food security are perceived to present significant or higher risk to global security in 2040, according to 96 percent and 94 percent, respectively, of the respondents.

Conflict within nations and conflict between nations complete the top climate security phenomena that present significant or higher risk to global security in 2040.

One hundred percent of the climate security phenomena assessed will increase in the next 20 years (2020-2040).

At current circumstances, decreases in water security is identified as one of the top four climate change-driven risks to the global security environment. The other three climate change-driven risks include critical ecosystem loss, scale of natural disasters, and increases in involuntary migration.

While the “water wars thesis” suggests that growing water scarcity will drive violent conflict as access to water dries up for certain communities, research have historically tended to collaborate rather than engage in violent conflict over water. However, climate change may strain this kind of cooperation in the future. Studies also show that even water-sharing leads to increased community tension and violence at the local level, but these tensions do not necessarily lead to war.

“Clearly, climate change is already shaping the global security environment and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future,” the perception survey results exclaimed.

Other higher risks to global security under current circumstances

Aside from climate change effects on water security, the report, under current circumstances, cited other higher risks to global security that include climate change risks to military infrastructure, operations and the broader security environment, and geoengineering as a proposed climate solution that could present negative effects to global security, especially if not implemented carefully.

Moreover, rising authoritarianism, sharpened global competition, and national agendas are hampering the needed cooperation among nations to address the security risks of climate change.

In the final analysis, building capacity proactively to address climate change risks from floods or droughts can make these events less deadly and costly, while simultaneously enhancing public perceptions of government’s key role in addressing the issue. The level of security risk that societies confront in the future may depend heavily on whether or not their governments are able and/or willing to continue fulfilling the social contract with their people in the face of a rapidly-changing climate.

On March 22, 2020, the world celebrates World Water Day. With the theme “Water and Climate Change,” the observance focuses on how the two are inextricably linked. Do note that, in order to protect health and save lives, everyone has a role to play in adapting to the water effects of climate change.

The author is the executive director of the Young Environmental Forum. He completed his climate change and development course at the University of East Anglia (United Kingdom) and executive program on sustainability leadership at Yale University (USA). He can be reached at ludwig.federigan@gmail.com.