2014 is set to be England’s hottest year in over 350 years, according to the world’s longest continuous record, with climate change at least partly to blame. The whole world has had a warm year and global data, released later on Wednesday, is likely to indicate a new record.

Higher temperatures cause more evaporation and more rain, and 2014 began with England’s wettest winter in over 250 years, leading to widespread flooding. Unless December turns unusually cold, 2014 will beat 1995, 2006, 1990 and 2011 as the warmest year on record. The average temperature in 2014 so far is almost 11.5C, about 1.5C higher than the long-term average.

“Looking at the averages for central England between January and November, 2014 is far and away the warmest on record so far,” said Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading. “Unless there is a relatively cool December, 2014 will be the warmest, as well as one of the wettest.” He said there was only a 25% chance that 2014 would not be the hottest year.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Temperature records in England. Photograph: Reading University

The world’s nations are currently meeting in Lima, Peru, at UN negotiations to seal a deal to cut carbon emissions and tackle climate change. The likely record warmth in 2014 would end a period of relatively slow rises in global surface temperatures.

This has been portrayed by climate sceptics as a halt in global warming, but greenhouse gases have continued to trap heat with over 90% of it being absorbed by the oceans. After the warmth of 2014, surface temperatures may now accelerate again.

“2014 has been a warm year so far for much of Europe and the globe, and may end up being the warmest year on record globally. The long-term trend, especially since 1950, is at least partly due to human activity,” said Hawkins. “The signal of a warming climate is clearly visible even at the local [UK] scale where changes in climate are actually experienced, and this in one of the most climatically variable parts of the world.”

Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics, said: “This news totally disproves false claims by UK climate change ‘sceptics’ that global warming has stopped. We are still seeing global and national records set all over the world. For instance, the UK’s seven warmest years and four of the five wettest years, have all occurred from 2000 onwards. This means an increasing risk of heatwaves and flooding, as we have seen this year. There can be no excuses for anyone, including politicians, to deny the risks that climate change is creating for people in the UK and across the world.”



The Central England Temperature data set, which covers the region between London, Bristol and Lancashire, is the longest continuous instrumental record in the world. It began recording monthly averages in 1659 and added daily averages in 1772.