The Progressive Conservatives are widening the gap over the minority governing Liberals as voters get ready to head to the polls Aug. 1 in five byelections.

A Forum Research provincial poll conducted Monday gives the Tories 36 per cent, the Liberals 31 per cent, New Democrats 27 per cent, Greens 5 per cent and others 1 per cent. The Tories are up a percentage point since this time last month and the Liberals are down two.

Forum used interactive voice response phone calls to poll 914 Ontarians aged 18 and older on Monday. Results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“It appears the bloom has finally come off the rose . . . people have had a chance to look at Premier (Kathleen) Wynne, and she’s beginning to look like just another politician,” Lorne Bozinoff, founder and president of Forum Research, told the Star Tuesday.

Bozinoff said the Liberals have been unable to put the gas-plants debacle and the related deleted emails behind them and “now she (Wynne) has gotten sort of hit with the mud from the gas plants,” referring to the Liberals’ decision to close plants in Oakville and Mississauga to win five seats. The move cost at least $585 million.

“This has just been dragging them down,” he said, adding that the only bright spot for the Liberals is in Toronto.

In the meantime, 41 per cent of those polled said the byelections in Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Scarborough—Guildwood, Ottawa South and London West and Windsor—Tecumseh on Aug. 1 will amount to a referendum on the governing Liberals and just 33 per cent said people would be passing judgment on the Tories.

“They (the Liberals) are looking very weak in southwestern Ontario . . . and now with the general trend of the Liberals’ vote down . . . it looks like those two seats (London and Windsor) are just out of reach now for (them),” Bozinoff said.

Leading the pack in personal approval rating is NDP Leader Andrea Horwath with 43 per cent followed by Premier Kathleen Wynne at 35 per cent, down from 42 per cent in May, and Hudak trailing with a 27-per-cent approval rating.

The continuing slide is not good for Wynne, who is seeing her short-lived premiership tested for the first time since she won the leadership in late January.

“As you know, byelections are tough for incumbent governments,” she said in London West Tuesday.

According to the Forum poll, Ontarians expect the government to win two of the by-elections, with most — 20 per cent — saying two for the Liberals and 18 per cent saying possibly three. Likewise, 17 per cent predicted the Tories would also win two while 15 per cent said possibly three.

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Bozinoff said so much rides on the voter turnout and their frame of mind.

“A lot in these byelections depends on whether people want to send a message and whether people are going to be around to vote because of he holidays,” he said.