What UK’s political crack-up means for Brexit

The Independent Group's formation adds an extra layer of complication to British politics.

Some fear the new Independent Group may prove to be the first step on the road to the British party system pulling apart | Leon Neal/Getty Images

LONDON — In the great Brexit race, the prospect of another general election is emerging from the pack.

Inside No. 10 Downing Street, attempts to war-game Brexit often end with parliament being dissolved for a third time in four years. The new Independent Group of MPs, which broke away last week, only increases this risk, some ministers and government officials fear — although there remains wild disagreement at the very highest ranks of government over Brexit’s likely denouement.

As Theresa May prepares to jet off to Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for a summit of EU leaders this weekend, the facts on the ground remain as desperate for the government as ever. The U.K. needs concessions from Brussels that it is not prepared to give. Without them, British politics could fall apart.

The prime minister has a matter of days to convince MPs she is not failing in her quest to win guarantees that the U.K. cannot be trapped against its will in a customs union under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement. May has promised to put another amendable motion to a vote of MPs on Wednesday if she has not won a second “meaningful vote” ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement by Tuesday.

One senior government official said the chances of a vote taking place on Tuesday are receding fast.

“We’re inviting anybody who shares our values to join us” — Former Labour MP Chuka Umunna

Without signs of progress, some ministers and officials believe the unravelling of the party system — started by the 12 MPs who resigned from Labour and the Tories last week — could accelerate. A sizeable chunk of government ministers are threatening to resign to vote for backbench proposals designed to stop a no-deal Brexit.

The result would be a further destabilizing of British politics just weeks before the U.K.’s scheduled departure from the EU on March 29, opening up the prospect of a general election, second referendum or even a redrawn coalition government replacing May’s ailing administration.

The new Independent Group, which by Friday had grown to 11 MPs (a 12th MP, Ian Austin, left Labour but did not join The Independent Group), some fear, may prove to be the first step on the road to the British party system pulling apart.

Opinions on the significance of the new group to the near-term path of British politics and Brexit vary considerably. Other Cabinet ministers and officials believe The Independent Group (TIG) could seek to block an election by voting with the government in a vote of no confidence, in an attempt to force No. 10 Downing Street to accept a second “confirmatory” referendum as the price of its support for the withdrawal bill.

The most consequential effect of the new group’s establishment — in the short term — however is to create a vehicle MPs can jump into should their own look to be heading off the cliff.

“We’re inviting anybody who shares our values to join us,” former Labour MP Chuka Umunna, who was part of the first wave of defections, told BBC Radio 4’s Today program Tuesday. “There are clearly a lot of Labour MPs wrestling with their conscience, and Conservatives who are demoralized [by] the UKIP-ization, if you like, of the party.” Umunna said he hopes to have formalized the group as a new political party by the end of the year.

Establishing a new party in the U.K.’s first-past-the-post electoral system is likely to be extremely hard, but with Brexit just five weeks away, many believe TIG could have an impact much more quickly than that.

“There’s a failure of imagination [in No.10],” said one Cabinet minister who spoke to POLITICO. “[A failure of imagination] that somehow the worst won’t happen. It could all move very, very quickly.” If more Tory MPs join TIG that could pull the government from power by robbing it of its majority.

Two Cabinet ministers who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity said if MPs find themselves in March without any sign of a breakthrough, resignations will start flowing in from the government benches.

Inside No. 10 Downing Street, some of May’s more pessimistic advisers cannot see a way through the crisis that does not end in another election. “I keep going over it and all roads seem to lead to an election,” said one senior adviser.

Extra Brexit risk

Those MPs who have already joined TIG understand the extra risk they have added into the Brexit equation.

Former Tory MP Heidi Allen told ITV’s Peston on Wednesday that “a third of the party” shares her frustrations, but urged them not to follow her across the aisle yet. “To be honest, we wouldn’t want them,” she said. “We don’t want you, because the last thing we want is to trigger a general election.”

Allen’s remarks raise the question of what TIG would do should May lose her majority in parliament. Would they vote for or against the government in a vote of no confidence? Anna Soubry, another of the Tories to jump ship, had made clear she would back the government in such a vote. But if the government were to actively pursue no-deal, that could change.

“The three individuals who left yesterday didn’t vote for the government when we had the Brady amendment and we were still able to secure a majority” — Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt

A second Cabinet minister said the creation of TIG actually made the government’s position safer because it included eight Labour MPs who will want to avoid an election because of the chance they will lose their seats. The MPs have all said they will not resign and fight by-elections.

“The common denominator of that group is that they don’t want an election,” the minister said. “Therefore [that is] eight more MPs who previously would have voted against the government in a confidence vote and now would (presumably) vote for or at least abstain.”

A third government minister told POLITICO that TIG’s opposition to an election raises the prospect of a new governing coalition being formed, where they replace the Democratic Unionist Party as the parliamentary partners of the Conservatives. That would require a significant softening of policy on Brexit though.

Speaking in Slovenia Thursday, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt sought to play down the significance of the three Conservative MPs who defected this week by pointing out they did not support the prime minister’s strategy to renegotiate the backstop.

“The three individuals who left yesterday didn’t vote for the government when we had the Brady amendment and we were still able to secure a majority so I don’t think it will affect our ability to secure a majority for the deal that we seek to secure,” he said.

However, both scenarios envisage the Conservative Party accepting — in some form — the will of The Independent Group of MPs, whose central purpose is forcing a second referendum on Brexit. That is fiercely opposed by the prime minister and would, in and of itself, split the Tory Party.

One Labour shadow minister said the country is starting to lose patience with the government and MPs were looking for something which might solve the issue.

“People are searching for something to end the impasse,” the MP said. “The public are clearly getting pissed off.”

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