Vladimir Putin might not have been welcome at the G7 meeting of world leaders in Germany this week, but when he touches down in Milan on Wednesday, the Russian president is likely to receive a far warmer welcome than he would in any of the other large EU countries.

Putin is travelling to Italy to visit the Russian pavilion at the expo in Milan on Russia day (the Russian Federation’s national holiday) and will then head to Rome. His itinerary includes meetings with Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, Sergio Mattarella, the Italian president, and Pope Francis, whom Putin will meet at the apostolic palace in Vatican City in late afternoon. It will be their first meeting since 2013, when Francis and the Russian leader met in St Petersburg at a G20 meeting hosted by Russia.

The presidential visit underscores Russia’s cosy relationship with Italy at a time when Putin is otherwise being treated as a pariah on the world stage. Barack Obama, the US president, warned at the G7 summit this week that world leaders were prepared to tighten sanctions against Russia if the conflict in Ukraine escalated.

Putin’s affinity for Italy and his friendship with billionaire Silvio Berlusconi, the former Italian premier, are so well known that the biggest news out of a critical summit in Milan last October – which included a meeting between Putin and Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine – was the late-night rendezvous between Putin and Berlusconi at the former premier’s villa that lasted until 3am.

In March, Renzi became the first European leader to be hosted in a bilateral meeting in Moscow since Russia’s annexation of Crimea last year – a meeting that was met with displeasure by the US, according to an American official at the time.

The meeting with Renzi came only days after Boris Nemtsov, the Russian opposition politician, was murdered near the Kremlin as he was walking home. Another Italian politician, Matteo Salvini, who heads the anti-euro anti-immigrant Northern League party, has been an outspoken critic against sanctions against Russia. The Northern League has even shepherded a movement to create a parliamentary group called Friends of Putin, which has praised the Russian leader as an essential counterweight to the Obama administration.

No Italians were included in the list of 89 EU citizens who were banned from entering Russia by Russian authorities, according to a list that was published by Finnish state broadcaster YLE earlier this month. It appeared to be another sign of the countries’ close ties.

Giancarlo Aragona, a former Italian ambassador to Russia who heads the Italian Institute for International Political Studies thinktank, told the Guardian that Italy had maintained a dialogue with Russia but that did not contradict the fact that Italy was “fully committed” to the European policy in relation to Russia, including the implementation of sanctions and decisions related to the crisis in Ukraine.

Aragona acknowledged there was a perception that Italy was somehow “more sympathetic” to Russia than other European countries. But he added: “I think that is not really a fair representation of the situation. I think the real issue is that [the Italian government] consider the Ukrainian issue a cause of very serious tension but also a symptom of a European order, [or] European architecture, which has not found its stability at the end of the cold war.”

Aragona then added: “We see the European evolution probably more clearly and objectively than some of our European partners.”



In his interview with Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Putin emphasised the strong trade relationship between Italy and Russia, noting that it had increased elevenfold in recent years from $4.2bn to nearly $49bn, as well as mutual interests in the energy sector and hi-tech.



While the meeting with Renzi will be closely watched, the talks between Putin and Pope Francis are sure to have Rome riveted. The Argentinian pontiff caused controversy last month when he met with Mahmoud Abbas – an encounter in which he might or might not have referred to the Palestinian president as an “angel of peace”, according to conflicting news reports. His meeting with Putin will be followed just as closely.

A report in Crux, an online news site that closely follows the Vatican, noted that Francis and Putin were something of an “odd geopolitical couple” who had formed an “improbably strong partnership”. It began after the Pope sent a letter to Putin in 2013 – before the G20 meeting in Moscow – urging leaders to find a non-military solution to the conflict in Syria. In his talk with other world leaders, Putin reportedly quoted from the pope’s letter, saying: “We might listen to the Pope.” No military action was taken.

Putin has also spoken out about the “dire” situation facing Christians in the Middle East who are being persecuted and killed – a topic that is frequently also mentioned by the pope. The pontiff has chided world leaders for seeking to diminish anti-Christian violence and the topic is likely to be raised on Wednesday.

Pope Francis has also sought to strengthen ties with the Russian Orthodox church as part of a broader aim to promote Christian unity. But he is not expected to ignore the biggest source of criticism against Putin internationally: the crisis in Ukraine. In February, the pontiff referred to the bloodshed in the ongoing war as “fratricidal”, a comment seen as controversial in Ukraine, where the violence is viewed as a direct consequence of Russian aggression.

Anatolij Babynskyj, editor of a prominent Greek Catholic journal, told Crux: “It shows the ignorance of the pope about the situation in Ukraine.”

Asked what the pope and Putin were likely to discuss at their meeting on Wednesday, the Vatican told the Guardian: “You can only speculate on the topics of the discussions.”