A new poll for a congressional special election spells potential big trouble for Republicans in 2020, according to conservative political reporter Josh Kraushaar.

Writing on Twitter, Josh Kraushaar points to a new bipartisan poll conducted for Inside Elections that shows Democrat Dan McCready with a four-point lead over Republican Dan Bishop in the election for North Carolina’s Ninth District. What’s more, that lead extends to five points if voters who are leaning a certain way are included in the results.

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Inside Elections cautions, however, that the Democrat’s victory is no certain thing.

“There’s still more than a week of television ads and campaigning to play out before the final votes are cast,” polling analysts Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam write. “And with Bishop and McCready polling so close to each other and the uncertainty of special election turnout, neither candidate has the clear advantage. With that in mind, we’re maintaining our Toss-up rating of the race.”

All the same, Kraushaar says that any poll showing such a lead in what should be a Republican-leaning district is a “red alert” for what the GOP can expect to face next year.

“If GOP [is] actually down 5 points in this conservative district, 2020 will be bleak,” he writes.

Red alert for Republicans. If GOP actually down 5 pts in this conservative district, 2020 will be bleak. https://t.co/7e6HPfn1kv… — Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) August 30, 2019