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“The fourth quarter is going to be a real test,” Qabazard, who’s now chief executive officer of Kuwait Catalysts Co., said on the sidelines of an OPEC seminar on prospects for the oil industry. The meeting was attended by chief executives from Exxon Mobil Corp. to BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, as well as oil ministers from Saudi Arabia to Kuwait and United Arab Emirates.

The European benchmark’s low was of $45.19 on Jan. 13. It has averaged $58.64 this year.

Global Glut

“There is a serious oversupply in the market,” Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh told reporters in Vienna on Thursday.

Brent’s recovery from the six-year low in January is stalling on signs a global glut estimated by Venezuela at two million to 2.5 million barrels a day will persist. OPEC ministers will convene in Vienna on Friday to discuss policy.

Zanganeh said he’s delivering a letter at the meeting alerting OPEC to make room for a rise in the country’s output. Shell CEO Ben Van Beurden and BP CEO Bob Dudley said they are interested in investing in Iran if sanctions related to its nuclear energy program are removed.

OPEC will keep its production target unchanged when the ministers gather, according to a Bloomberg survey last month. The 12 members including Iraq and Iran pumped 31.58 million barrels a day in May, exceeding the 30-million barrel target for a 12th consecutive month, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Prices are attractive for non-OPEC producers to keep drilling, Qabazard said. U.S. shale oil output is now steady at about four million barrels a day, and will grow to 5 million barrels a day by 2018, he said.