Kyle Schwarber’s Future: A Swing or Miss?

The Schwarbinator can and will smash. But what weakness’s could hold him back?

Photo by Arturo Pardavila III via Flickr

Kyle Schwarber. The Schwabernator. Schwarbs. Whatever you want to call him. The man will forever be in the hearts of Chicago Cub fans around the world.

After tearing up his knee in an outfield collision in April of 2016, every inclinaition, including Theo Epstien’s word, pointed to that he would be gone for the rest of the season, not for a late postseason run.

In his 2015 campaign, Schwarber’s deadly raw power was on display. 273 regular season at-bats and clutch playoff hitting later, every Cubs fan was excited to see what the top 2014 draft pick could bring to the table.

Schwarber’s injury was devastating. Even though the Cubs went on a early, huge run in April, there was an obvious hole in the Cubs lineup. A platoon of Jorge Soler and Matt Szcuzr was nowhere near as exciting as the prospect of Schwarber’s middle of the order power in the lineup.

After the Cubs handedly led Major League Baseball in wins, and won the Central division, they (un-Cubs like) sped through the playoffs.

But then the rubber met the road. These young Cub hitters, Anthony Rizzo, the regular season MVP Kris Bryant, Soler, Addison Russell… just quit hitting.

Their slump came at the wrong time. Winning the National League Championship series against the Los Angeles Dodgers was masked by the Cubs pitching expertise and bullpen depth. They needed to hit against the Cleveland Indians in the World Series. This point of weakness could not be hidden.

And… so came the Kyle Schwarber hype train. Created by a narrative and a slumping Cubs lineup, it was a perfect storm. Cub fans everywhere adored the guy. The timing couldn’t of been better.

Even more importantly, this was the World Series. Against an American League team. The designated hitter spot was made for this hulk of a man.

A huge (no pun intended) roster acquisition, could Schwarber be the man to spark the Cubs offense forward?

Yes, and the rest is history.

Going 7/17 with a few runs batted in, Schwarber’s presence alone at the plate sparked optimism, a new fire within the Cubs lineup.

Schwarber is one of those guys when he steps to the plate, if he’s on the opposing team, you’re worried. A left-handed pull hitter who can take one deep at any time?

This feeling is usually left for veterans, experienced sluggers who have many years under their belt. Adrian Gonzales, David Ortiz, Joey Votto, and Mike Fontenot (only kidding) all give off that feeling.

You want your best set-up man, your closer, or your ace pitching against these guys. Maybe the best example of this are Cubs killers. Carlos Lee. Ryan Braun. Andrew McCutchen. Guys who kill your team in nearly every series.

This is Kyle Schwarber — at least from the eyes of Chicago Cub fans.

Schwarber is finally healthy, but in a lineup that really doesn’t have a place for him at catcher or left field. Watching him play left field must’ve been like watching Babe Ruth (yes, I just used that comparison) try to play the outfield after his prime. Rough.

At least watching Travis Wood roam the left field ivy was entertaining…

Wilson Contreras has solidified his spot at catcher, so Schwarber won’t be playing more than 30 or 40 games there.

Maddon’s lineup configurations will constantly change. That’s just his nature. By splitting time in left and at catcher, (who knows, maybe he’ll give Rizzo a day off at first) Schwarber’s bat will fit in the lineup hopefully 140–150 games out of the year. His plate presence, power, and potential (the three Ps!) is just to good to keep on the bench.

Or, an even scarier thought, maybe the Cubs will just play him against mainly righties and weaker left handed starters and prepare to deal him for pitching. Far off from now, but its a possibility. The Cubs should continue to restock with the talent they have.

Assuming Kyle is here for the long run, this is the first year where pitchers will consistently see him daily in the Cubs lineup. He’s really the only new player in the Cubs lineup. Adjustments will be made for Bryant (meaning he’ll see less and less fastballs.)

Which accounts for the reason why Maddon is doing his Maddon thing (we shouldn’t be surprised at this point) and putting the Schwarbs at the lead off spot. This will “protect” Bryant in the two spot and puts a lot of the weight on Scwhwarber’s shoulders. He is a power guy. He isn’t going to hit .330. At the most, he’s a .270-.290 guy with very good bat control and poise at the plate.

Let’s say, like every Cub fan probably has, we project Schwarber’s 2015 rookie season to the worklaod he’ll be getting at the plate this year. Putting this around 600 at-bats, this isn’t a perfect number. Generally lead-off hitters reach close to the 600 at-bat mark.

The numbers are extraordinary.

Photo by Austin Hutchinson

Talk about a MVP canidate. When was the last time we saw a guy with nearly 150 hits, hit 40 home runs, drive in 110, and walk 90 times? Not to mention coming around to score 130 plus times as well. At the age of 24.

There’s only been seven players in the history of baseball that had numbers like these.

Photo via Baseball Reference

Woah. This is some company. A handful of Hall of Famers, and then some. Lou Gehrgs’ name and sesason stands out most, but guys like Luis Gonzales, David Ortiz, and Albert Belle all have traits that Schwarber has or might develop.

Firstly, a smooth, left-handed (although not Belle and Gonzales) power swing and a large frame. And in the cases of Belle and Ortiz, eventually resorting to full time Designated Hitter work.

All of these players individual seasons were spectacular. In fact, they were in the top of their league’s MVP race every year.

Luis Gonzales was 3rd in 2001 (and also had the most important hit in Florida Marlins history), Albert Belle 3rd in 1996, David Ortiz 2nd in 2005, Lou Gherig 2nd in 1931, Richie Sexson 12th in 2003 (mind you, 5 guys hit 40+ homeruns that year — Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, and Javy Lopez all were ahead of him in the race), Rafael Palmero 14th in 2001 (another product of the steroid era of sluggers) and finally Mo Vaughn 5th in 1996.

On average, that’s a 5th place finish in the MVP voting.

So wait, you’re telling me that the Cubs could possibly have three players (Kris Bryant winning MVP and Anthony Rizzo was 4th) in the top five for MVP? That’s insane. In multiple ways.

You and I both know that it isn’t very likely that Schwarber projects the numbers he had in 2015 over a longer period of time. You can’t correctly quantify that. No one knows exactly what Schwarber will be next season. And as Cub fans, we are hopelessly optimistic, on that hype train.

One thing we do know is that Schwarber’s short rookie campaign wasn’t luck. The .293 BABIP (Batting Averages of Baseballs in Play) he posted doesn’t suggest a regression to the mean — it also doesn’t suggest a sudden skyrocket in batting average.

Left-handed pull hitters live and die by baseball’s new obsession- the shift. Data suggests that, unless you’re a Joey Votto, a lefty power guy who can naturally hit out of the shift to all fields, luck isn’t going to serve you. At most, a .320 or .330 BABIP is about as much luck as their going to get season to season.

David Ortiz's, another great lefty pull hitter, BABIP hovered around .300 his entire career, his highest being .324, which was in the pre-shift era.

Chris Davis, another modern left handed hitter with plenty of raw power, his BABIP hovers around .315 and maxed out his MVP season at .336

Taking a look at Anthony Rizzo, (who’s offensive ability is much like Schwarber’s could be) his BABIP rose in 2015 from .289 to in 2016 to a . 309 BABIP and so did Rizzo’s production.

There’s correlation here. It’s possible for Schwarber to reach that level of a .300 BABIP, but will it effect anything but his average a bit?

This leads to another issue. He can hit .280, maybe. But what about Schwarber’s tendency to strike out a bit too much?

In his his rookie year, Kyle struck out 28.2 percent of the time out of 273 at bats. In his 519 career minor league at bats, Schwarber struck out 129 times, giving him a 24.8 percent strike out rate.

You can’t have your leadoff guy strike out 150 times. (Unless your name is Alfonso Soriano, on the Cubs in 2012, with 156 strikeouts — yikes — thanks Jim Hendry)

Heck, even Fan Graphs (who aren’t fans of Schwarber’s game at all) gives him a 30/55 scouting report on his hitting ability — which seems extremely low for a guy of his talent. The issue really is a lack of a track record full of strikeouts.

This was also the worry the Cubs had going into the season with Kris Bryant last year, and Anthony Rizzo in 2015.

Bryant had struck out 199 times in 559 at bats at age 23, his rookie year, at a clip 0f 30.6 percent of the time. His sophomore and MVP year, he struck out only 154 times in 603 at-bats, at a much improved rate of 22 percent of the time.

Rizzo made a huge improvement in his strike out rate, which dropped in 2014 from 18.8 percent (age 24) to 15 and 16 percent in concurring years.

For Schwarber to take that next step offensively, he needs to lower his strikeout rate. That’s not to say he needs to cut it in half. But a gradual regression is needed for him to be an efficient lead-off hitter for the Cubs.

Bryant and Rizzo were able to do that in their age 24 season. It may take a year of adjustment like Bryant needed to cut back on those strikeouts. But Schwarber’s 907 professional at-bats isn’t all that far off from Bryant’s 1,284 professional at-bats going into the 2016 season. He very well could be at the stage of development where he can lower his swing and miss tendencies.

Here a few projection site’s stab at Schwarber’s 2017 probable output.

Photo by Austin Hutchinson

In all of them the central idea is clear. Schwarber may not get as many plate appearances as a leadoff guy playing in 140–150 games might play. He’s a 30 home run hitter that’s going to hit around .260 and strike out around 25 percent of the time.

These projections make sense. There isn’t a stable spot on the field for Schwarber. The Cubs don’t know if he can hit left-handers (and go through a Rizzo-like improvement against them) or if his strikeout rate can significantly improve.

Are we expecting too much from him?

The optimistic Cub fan in me feels that Schwarber can put up more than 30 home runs, hit for a higher average than .260, and lower his strikeout rate. After all, Rizzo and Bryant did it, why can’t Schwarber?

But then let’s say Schwarber doesn’t exceed those projection’s expectations. Will he then become trade bait for a top American League starter? Will the organization’s trust in Schwarber fade away that quickly?

No matter how Schwarber’s development proceeds, whether or not he is a swing and miss top prospect, there is one thing Cub fans can lean on. Theo Epstein’s vision for the future. If he sees it valuable to trade Schwarber for a young, controlled pitcher, there’s reason to make that move.

Cub fans must #TrustTheProcess. Even if Schwarber fails to live up to the hype in 2017, his value is in good hands.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs for all statistics used in this piece.