RadoN’s thousand is a series of articles in which I give my opinions on a topic of my choosing in about a thousand or less words. In this one I make a case for the ability of the perceived underdogs, in Group A’s elimination match of APEX S2, to win tomorrow’s virtual bout.

The series for the second Ro4 (Round of 4) spot from group A of APEX’s Ro8 sees two of the tournament’s favorites meeting in an elimination series. The loser goes home to contemplate on their losses until the next season. The winner’s reward will be a semi-finals clash with the winner of group B – the one that most would deem as the harder – and barring huge upsets one of the following:

- KongDoo Panthera – the only team without a map loss in the tournament so far;

- LuxuryWatch Blue – the roster that won IEM Gyeonggi (under the LW Red flag) and a team some were calling the best in the world, coming into the tournament;

- Meta Athena – an up-and-coming team on five offline Bo5 (Best of 5) series winning streak, that has looked better every time they play.

But how did we get into a situation where two team that realistically could have been in the final are to meet in an elimination match during the Ro8? Note that the format, which the tournament uses, is designed to ensure the better teams come through, by requiring of teams two wins in a double-elimination bracket of four teams, for advancing to the next stage of the tournament (the format is often referred to as GSL style groups within esports).

Briefly: after both, Lunatic-Hai and KongDoo Uncia, topped their groups, they got the priority of picking their opponent of first and third (of four) respectively. Lunatic-Hai selected an EnVyUS, that had been looking less than stellar in APEX’s second season. While far from the weakest in the field, multiple teams had their sights set on the 2016 “Overwatch team of the year” and APEX S1 champions. If not for personal revenge, it was to make an example of them for taking the trophy away from Korea, or simply, to steal a piece of their glory by handling them a loss.

By the time it was Uncia’s turn to pick their first Ro8 opponent, the two available options were the aforementioned LW Blue and RunAway, an amateur squad (formed by the streamer Runner) that had just shown an unexpectedly strong performance versus Fnatic, after mid-season roster changes. There wasn’t much of a choice to make at the time, and even with hindsight on our side, it’s hard to call the pick of Runner’s boys poor, given the other option.

As predicted by most, both Lunatic-Hai and Uncia handled EnVyUS. However, in what came as a surprise to fans and experts alike, RunAway beat both of them and advanced to the semi-finals as a first place seed, which (in theory) gives them the best chance possible to advance to the final.

Why are Uncia the underdog?

Despite Uncia defeating Lunatic-Hai 3–0 in the quarter-final of APEX S1 and the latter being on a downward trend, from then until recently, the KongDoo squad comes into tomorrow as the underdog.

The most important factor for that is the uncharacteristic mistakes that have been plaguing Uncia’s gameplay, since the match versus Cloud9. Poor ultimate economy management, uncoordinated flanks and mispositioning have replaced the stellar teamplay and creative tactics, viewers have come to associate with the squad since their debut in APEX S1.

Another reason, why most would predict the perennial fan-favorites of Lunatic-Hai to take the match, is that recent results weigh heavily in their favor. In the group stage, Miro and co. defeated the Swedish powerhouse of Misfits and the aforementioned LW Blue. Uncia on the other hand, was pushed to a five-games series by Cloud9 and even dropped a game to the AF Blue, a team so poor that fans have started calling Recry’s personal prison.

Overall uncertainty of Uncia’s level is the final factor, driving many to considering them the underdog. They did indeed get to the semi-final in S1 and barely lost to the eventual champions, but not before losing a series to BK Stars, a team that’s had their fair share of troubles since. In addition they’ve been inconsistent in their online performances for the longest, losing games to a multitude of squads, nowhere near their level.

Yet despite so many things going against the KongDoo squad, there is also a case to be made for them having a solid chance of victory and below I’ll discuss several of the factors that influence that.

First and foremost comes the versatility and a stylistic mismatch in favor of Uncia, stemming from it. Lunatic-Hai may have added some versatility to their game recently, but they’re still very much a one-trick warhorse, even if one with a new set of armor. The squad’s success continues to come from an aggressive playstyle, with just as aggressive of a DPS player being the tip of the Lunatic-Hai spear, propelled forward by the strength of its tank and support players.

However, the DPS isn’t EscA and the loss of resources and support has rendered the latter considerably less effective. As a result the team is left, once again, with only one above average and limited hero-wise player as a reliable DPS, admittedly this time with an even stronger supporting cast. Unfortunately for them, however, WhoRU’s arsenal hasn’t shown to include any heroes that can deal with distant threats and ryujehong is now the only solution for such problems, as the squad has been unable to revert to playing around EscA, since the addition of the young Genji specialist.

Meanwhile, for Uncia, despite the addition of the limited in terms of playstyle Butcherr, versatility and teamplay has continued being the name of the game. birdring and DNCE have successfully switched roles and even though skill-wise they’ve not improved by much, both have become considerably more effective. As a result, the squad has the options to probe from range, surprise through flanks, outright counter enemy compositions due to immense hero pools or simply outdo Lunatic-Hai at their own game, as the Uncia’s diving core is stronger, thanks to EscA’s inefficiency.

Which leads to my next point, Uncia is frequently dubbed as a team based on teamplay, however in this metagame their effective firepower can be equal, if not superior to Lunatic-Hai’s. Skill-wise Miro and co. may very well be superior to everyone in the world. However, their four best — by a considerable margin — players excel in the roles of support and tank, which whilst important have less natural game-impact. For Uncia it’s the DPS and the tank players who got the know-how, now with the added skills of Butcherr.

This is even more important when even someone as excellent as ryujehong can often get caught and leads into a situation where key strengths of Lunatic-Hai are diminished, despite playing in a metagame that favors their playstyle.

A final aspect I’ll mention, before running out of my thousand words, is the mental one. EscA, previously their most clutch player, has been having a poor series one after another, and unable to contribute much, even in wins. ryujehong, who used to be an undiveable super-Ana can now get caught regularly. WhoRU, the new focal point of the squad lacks not only the years of experience in competition the rest have, but also in playing high-pressure matches. They just had their worst game of the season versus RunAway, as a huge favorite, while Uncia have already been at their worst and looked better in their last game, versus EnVyUS.

All of this of course doesn’t necessarily culminate in Lunatic-Hai crumbling during the match, a victory for KongDoo, or even me predicting it. Rather comes to say that, even if Lunatic-Hai are the favorites on paper, the match ahead isn’t an easy one. And if Miro and co. do indeed come out of it with a win, they’ll come on the other side, having had their limits tested, but ultimately victorious.

Do you agree or disagree that Uncia have good chances of winning? Who do you think will win? Let me know!