1. Mike Gillislee, Patriots RB: The avalanche of owners vying for Gillislee right now is over whelming. The argument here is simply that no one can predict Bill Belichik’s* backfield. No one has dominated carries since Corey Dillon retired. To assume an RB that a division rival let walk, one that couldn’t beat out Karlos Williams for the second string job in 2015, will slide right into the shoes of the best hard running RB since Jerome Bettis is short sighted. Sure, he had a great YPC in Buffalo, where he was used sparingly. He wouldn’t be the first guy to have terrific numbers in limited action see that average fall steeply when pressed into regular service. Not that I hate his chances of doing good things this season, I would just prefer it at James White’s price.

2. Adrian Peterson, Saints RB: The guy you should be looking at as this year’s Blount is AP. Sean Payton hates Mark Ingram for who knows what reason. Ask Tim Hightower or any of the other half dozen backs that he’s ceded touches to in his Saints career. What I do know, is that Ingram’s most reliable years came in 2014-2015 when he was getting regular goal line work and was scoring consistent touchdowns (8 and 6 RZ TDs respectively). This is completely guesswork, but my feeling is Peterson fills that role. He’s always been a tough runner and if I’ve learned anything from playing fantasy, it’s to never count AP out.

3. Any rookie RB not named Leonard: Here are some RBs currently being drafted near or ahead of their teams starting incumbent: Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine. That’s craziness. You take shots on these guys after filling most of your starting spots, not as one of your first six or seven picks. These are all talented players. Most will likely have nice NFL careers. For 2017, however, most are going to only earn a share of the load. That also takes time. Not to say some of this group won’t be difference makers, you’re just guessing which right now. The reward isn’t worth the risk in the earlier rounds.

4. Alshon Jeffrey, Eagles WR: Maybe it’s the Eagles fan in me, but I’m very optimistic about Jeffrey as Philadelphia’s WR1. There’s obvious concerns about him playing a full season, but I try to avoid putting too much stock into injury worries that aren’t a chronic problem. At his best he’s showed game changing ability. That was buried under the steaming pile that the Bears have been lately. For a guy with the talent to crack the top five of receivers, a third or fourth round pick is a fine price.

5. Travis Kelce, Chiefs TE: Catching Kelce is just too expensive coming off his career year. This is not to say I don’t like him as a tight end. I just don’t want to draft him in the third round. The upside just isn’t there. The Chiefs receiving TD woes are well known. Kelce has scored 5, 5, and 4 TDs in his career. He’s good for 900-1000 Yards and 5 TDs. Excellent tight end numbers. Those would make him the 18th ranked wide receiver in PPR last year. I want more from my third and fourth picks.

6. Martellus Bennett, Packers TE: For someone with the receiving chops Marty B has, being drafted as the TE9 is much too late. He’s on a new team, has to adjust to a new QB, etc. He’s proven those small hurdles in the past. Rodgers has utilized tight ends when he’s had confidence in them. If you want to know who the biggest threat to Devante* Adams 7 red zone TDs is, look no further. Coincedentally, Richard Rodgers caught 7 TDs in the RZ in 2015. I want a TE who can offer touchdown upside, as very few garner consistent catches/yards.

7. Ty Mongtomery, Packers RB: I’m a fan of Montgomery’s skill set. He’s quick, tough to tackle, and a match up nightmare. He belongs closer to Theo Riddicks ADP than CJ Anderson’s, though. Much like the second half of last season, there’s no indication Green Bay’s backfield touches will have much consistency this season. Montgomery will bust out in certain match ups and game flows but disappear in others.

8. Marshawn Lynch, Raiders RB: The Raiders managed to coax Lynch out of retirement for the 2017 season. I don’t imagine they did so on uncertain terms. The staff wants him to fill the role of bell cow back. Touchdowns alone should provide enough value for his current price in the late 3rd/early 4th. Latavius Murray had 12 rushing TDs here last year, 11 of which came inside the 10 yard line. That’s beast mode at it’s best.

9. Corey Davis, Titans WR: Drafted as the first receiver off the board in this years NFL rookie draft, Davis has shot up fantasy draft boards as well. That’s an over compensation. He needs polish before producing at an NFL level. Add in the competition for targets on the Titans got suddenly fierce with the signing of Eric Decker and Davis’ rookie season has let down written all over it. Look at second or third year guys flying under the radar like Josh Doctson or Kevin White instead.

10. Donte Moncrief*, Colts WR: My pick for breakout WR of 2017. There’s some concern with Andrew Luck’s repaired shoulder bogging down the whole Colts offense. If he gets on the field by the start of the season I have full confidence in Luck, as he was still the QB4 last season with a shoulder injury. Moncrief’s flukey fractured shoulder blade kept him from reaching his full potential last year. This year I expect a season much like Michael Thomas’ 2016, with TDs buoying his value.

*Edited for spelling.