Growing stature: A.B. Vajpayee popularity rating has surged Growing stature: A.B. Vajpayee popularity rating has surged

Forget all the sun-kissed advertisements and the turbocharged announcements. Forget also the alternatives, terrible or otherwise. Call it what you will. A mandate for governance, an incumbency advantage for the first time since the 1971 polls, or a surge tied to the peace dividend.

With the BJP-led Government speedily taking the dangerous curve ahead and calling for general elections six months ahead of schedule, everything in the road map points right back to where it all began for Atal Bihari Vajpayee: 7 Race Course Road and another term in its carefully groomed environs.



With the Lok Sabha to be dissolved in the first week of February, what appeared to be a tiny wave in August 2003 seems to have crystallised into a tsunami. The country's most exhaustive election tracker, the INDIA TODAY- ORG MARG Mood of the Nation Poll, predicts 330-340 seats for the NDA, almost 30 seats more than the 304 it attained in 1999. Accompanying the saffron surge is its mirror image, a slide for the Congress and allies, with the poll predicting 105-115 seats, 30 less than its tally in the last elections.



If all goes as per the BJP plan, the Congress will reach its lowest level, 4 per cent below that of the BJP. It is by far the worst drubbing the 119-year old party will ever record in its history. Ever since INDIA TODAY began the Mood of the Nation Poll, with the exception of January 2001 (the first poll), the percentage vote of the Congress was always a few points above the BJP. Under normal circumstances, the votes of the opposition move up on the eve of polls suggesting an anti-incumbency wave.



On the eve of 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the votes of the Congress have sunk below that of the ruling party, indicating an incumbency advantage for the NDA. Even more paradoxically, the Congress surge detected last August in the Mood of the Nation poll was the highest in the populous north and east , with the swings in favour of the Congress alliance as high as 3.38 per cent in the north and 4.17 per cent in the east.



It is precisely in the same regions that the Congress is declining and the NDA today is enjoying the ride of its life. The swings in favour of the NDA are 3.94 in the north and 2.89 in the east, and its showing in the west has improved with a swing of 4.84 per cent.



Clearly, six months is a long time in politics. But why? Partly, the Congress is grappling with the BJP's late rally in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.



States run by the Congress will suffer from anti-incumbency, as will states run by its allies (RJD in Bihar and the CPI(M) in West Bengal). Then there is the one big element that the BJP has made its mission to target: Congress President Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin. More worryingly for its future health is the Congress' loosening grip over younger voters, women and those in rural areas.



But it would be unwise to look at the Congress' debacle in the December assembly elections and the subsequent decline evident in this poll in the north and west in isolation. The coat-tail effects of the Hindi heartland trio who lost the December polls-Digvijay Singh, Ashok Gehlot and Ajit Jogi-first appeared in the Lok Sabha elections of 1999 when the Congress lost heavily in Madhya Pradesh (including Chhattisgarh) and Rajasthan.



The Congress was reduced to 11 seats out of 40 in Madhya Pradesh and nine out of 25 in Rajasthan. Today the biggest negative swings for the Congress are in these states with Madhya Pradesh recording swings of -7 per cent, Chhattisgarh -12 per cent and Rajasthan -2 per cent.



The opinion poll predicts that the Congress will be a net loser in states where it is in power or one of its potential allies is in power. The anti-incumbency factor is likely to work against the Congress state governments in Uttaranchal, Assam and Kerala as well as its allies such as the RJD in Bihar and the Left Front in West Bengal. This anti incumbency against non-performing state governments is also powering, by default, the massive wave for the NDA in the east and the north. Sonia's foreign origins don't help.

Popularity: Sonia Gandhi versus A.B. Vajpayee Click here to Enlarge Popularity: Sonia Gandhi versus A.B. Vajpayee

While Vajpayee's popularity ratings have soared to 47 per cent, that of Sonia remain as low as 23 per cent, a far cry from the December 1998 INDIA TODAY ORG- MARG opinion poll, when her popularity, at 31, was higher than Vajpayee's, at 27. Arguably, popularity ratings matter more in presidential polls than parliamentary elections but with Indian elections acquiring the vim and vigour of US-style elections, the Congress is in serious trouble with its present leader.In contrast, things look rosy, if not saffron, for the BJP. If the Congress has gained new allies and the BJP lost some old ones, such as the DMK, PMK and MDMK to it, it has also lost its USP as the grand old party.

The BJP has gained especially in the north, including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, partly because of its 3-1 victory in the assembly polls. The anti-incumbency in states ruled by non-NDA parties helps, as does Vajpayee's stature, which has helped propel the party's drive into hitherto-untapped areas.



For long considered the Waterloo of the BJP, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar also appear to be set to change their ways. The poll predicts massive gains for the party in these two states. In Bihar, the opinion poll reveals that it is simply a case of strong anti-incumbency (-5) against the RJD which has been in power for the past three terms. In Uttar Pradesh, being the main opposition party, the BJP is likely to pick up the erosion of vote from the BSP (-2) and the Congress (-2) in equal measure.



Moreover, the spectacular sweep of the BJP in December 2003 in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh is today turning into a saffron slice. The poll predicts gains of 8 per cent in Madhya Pradesh, 6 per cent in Rajasthan and a whopping 15 per cent in Chhattisgarh for the BJP over its 1999 tally.

Add to this the anti-incumbency in the Congress-run states: a 6 per cent swing for the BJP in Karnataka, a 9 per cent swing in Kerala and a 10 per cent swing in Uttaranchal. In the CPI(M)-run West Bengal it is ahead by 5 per cent.



On the eve of the Lok Sabha elections 2004, the predictions of such a poll tell only one story: Advantage NDA. Among all its allies it is clearly the BJP that has gained the most. Even during the August 2003 opinion poll, the BJP was merely lying dormant while the rest of the NDA showed a downward slide.

Today's story is of the BJP's resurgence. For once, the most powerful unwritten rule explaining post-Emergency Indian politics- the wave of anti-incumbency-is being proved wrong. Yet, ironically, the anti-incumbency wave still seems to guide the fate of Congress governments in the states and those of its allies.



What causes such a conundrum: an incumbency advantage at the Centre and anti-incumbency in the states? The answer lies in the fact that neither is inevitable. The key factor is governance. Voters vote for you if you perform, and punish you if you don't.



The one thread that binds all these disparate results is the leadership advantage. Ironically for a party that did not believe in it, it may well be the personality cult that has led to the BJP's resurgence. Assuming this trend continues till election day, the choice is clear.



For Vajpayee, the question may well be how long he wishes to stay as prime minister, while for the BJP, it is what to do after him. For Sonia, it is perhaps another, equally pertinent, question. Will she-should she-withdraw from the cut and thrust of electoral politics and make way for another leader?