"Rest assured, this list has genuine ability and more can be expected of the group in 2018-19," he told Fairfax Media. Pelchen rated Collingwood and West Coast, who have both been widely predicted to miss the top eight this year, as having better playing lists than Hawthorn and St Kilda, who are both tipped to improve. However, despite Hawthorn's impressive rebuild on the run last season, Pelchen expected them to experience a prolonged absence from the finals along with West Coast. St Kilda fans probably think this is the year for their first taste of finals since 2011, but Pelchen disagreed. "While their list has nice structure and balance, it still appears to lack enough elite talent to take them into the top eight," he said of the Saints.

Pelchen believed Essendon and Port Adelaide would push for top-four spots, after stellar recruiting sprees in the off-season, along with Melbourne. While the Bombers acquired Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad, Pelchen rated the Bombers as having only the eighth-best list in the AFL. Although he does think they are on the verge of a sustained stint of finals footy. The Western Bulldogs might have been crowned premiers a mere 17 months ago, but Pelchen put the lists of Melbourne (fifth), Port Adelaide (sixth) and Essendon ahead of the Dogs (ninth). Pelchen even rated the Dees and Power as superior to Adelaide (seventh) who finished runners-up last year. Carlton fans may have been feeling optimistic about where their list is at following a club record five Rising Star nominations last year, but the former St Kilda head of football rated the lists of fellow strugglers Gold Coast (14th), Fremantle (15th) and the Brisbane Lions (16th) ahead of the Blues (17th).

Pelchen felt the Lions and Blues were three to four years from becoming forces. Familiar faces are expected to compete for the premiership again with Geelong, Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney, Sydney and Richmond all the teams to beat, according to Pelchen. In somewhat of a surprise, the Tigers were rated as having only the fourth-best list despite winning the flag. He rated the Giants as having the best list in the competition while, at the other end of the spectrum, North Melbourne came in at 18th.

CHRIS PELCHEN'S 2018 AFL LIST RANKINGS

(List rankings don't necessarily correlate to predicted ladder finishes) 1. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY With preliminary final losses to eventual premiers in consecutive years, GWS could be considered unlucky not to own some silverware. On talent alone, the Giants are the equal of any in the competition but therein lies their challenge for 2018. Losing Devon Smith (Essendon), Nathan Wilson (Fremantle) and Zac Williams (injury) combined with the retirements of Shane Mumford and Steve Johnson will hurt to some extent but they should cover their departures in the short-to-medium term. New draftee Aidan Bonar is a special talent, especially athletically, who should debut this year. Summary: Very capable of taking the next few steps to achieve premiership success with existing talent and further development of their game plan. Expect another top-four finish in 2018. 2. SYDNEY

Quiet in the off-season as they already possess one of the AFL's most talented lists. While every team aims to improve season-on-season by recruiting key players, the Swans' continued development will come from within. Anticipate youngsters Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Zak Jones, George Hewett and Oliver Florent to go the next level as they assume the mantle from their established teammates. Draftee Matthew Ling will likely debut in 2018 with his outside speed and skill complementing the power of the Swans' inside midfielders. Summary: If Sydney had started 2017 stronger, the finals may have been very different. Expect the Swans to compete strongly for the premiership again this year. 3. GEELONG Losing players such as Andrew Mackie, Tom Lonergan and Steven Motlop would present challenges to most teams but the Cats are well placed to overcome such adversity. Gary Ablett's return will add to one of the strongest centre-square groups in the modern era. Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Ablett present a "dream team" midfield combination. The drafting of Lachlan Fogarty, Tim Kelly and Charlie Constable was both opportunistic and wise. All three are capable of making their debuts in 2018. The addition of Stewart Crameri looms as another shrewd recruitment. Summary: While there are some challenges in defence, the Cats' overall list looks better than the one that finished second on the ladder in 2017. There's a nice balance between age/experience and structure/talent, so they should compete for another premiership.

4. RICHMOND Richmond achieved greatness in 2017 utilising a well-timed and executed game plan that caught many opponents by surprise. Unlike most premiership teams, they don't face the prospect of any pending retirements or loss of talent through trading so there is reason to believe their list will improve. Their first draft selection Jack Higgins is a ready-made player - a consummate professional whose age belies his application, so anticipate him making an early debut in 2018. Pressure for places in the senior team will be immense as those who missed the grand final look to reclaim their spots. Summary: While they don't have the most talented list, the Tigers still haven't reached their true potential – an imposing thought for opposition clubs. But Richmond will need to "maintain the rage" to play on the biggest stage again as teams around them are better prepared for their game plan. 5. MELBOURNE Upward projection continued in 2017 and more of the same can be expected this year. A list filled with outstanding young midfielders should serve the Demons well for the next seven to eight years – positioning them as a top-four team in the near future. The recruitment of Jake Lever is a boon for their defence while draftees Charlie Spargo, Bayley Fritsch, Harrison Petty and Oskar Baker are all capable of a debut in 2018.

Summary: As Melbourne's talent continues to improve so will expectations of their performance – a four-six finish can reasonably be anticipated in 2018. Even bigger things can be expected from 2019. 6. PORT ADELAIDE An unprecedented number of recycled players have arrived at Alberton – namely Tom Rockliff, Steven Motlop, Jack Watts, Jack Trengove, Trent McKenzie and Lindsay Thomas – and all have claims to play round one. But most will likely just add to the club's overall depth. While Jarman Impey's departure will be felt, the Power's list is stronger than in 2017 so anything less than a top-four finish will likely be considered a failure. Summary: Embarking on a pivotal year in the club's history. Their ambitious recruiting strategy will be one of the talking points of 2018. 7. ADELAIDE

Losing Jake Lever hurts short term but securing Bryce Gibbs will be pivotal in changing their midfield set-up. While securing Gibbs when the opportunity arose 12 months ago would have been preferable, his addition will add more than a player of just obvious talent. He adds leadership, a mature body and elite kicking skills to a midfield already transitioning to its next generation with the Crouch brothers emerging. Their recruitment of Darcy Fogarty in the draft was an outstanding selection and he should debut this year. Summary: Their list is of similar talent to their 2017 list so expect them to be a competitor again. Adelaide's immediate challenge is that several clubs around them on the ladder have further improved their lists. 8. ESSENDON The Bombers are seeing one of the paradoxical benefits of their recent off-field challenges. The opportunity to put AFL games into younger players while much of their senior group was suspended has provided reciprocal development and depth to an emerging list. The recruitment of Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad will add depth to a club chasing a top-four position. Saad provides the biggest point of difference to Essendon in 2018 - he gives valuable rebounding ability lost through the departure of Michael Hibberd in 2016. While their draft returns were understandably modest because of late selections, their list is improved on 2017 so expect a strong result. Summary: A top-four finish should be in their sights with one of the strongest spines in the AFL. With the continued development of their young midfield, they should be playing finals for the next five years.

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS After a disappointing season several key players departed – Matthew Boyd, Bob Murphy, Jake Stringer, Travis Cloke and Stewart Crameri. This represented a loss of more than 1000 AFL games' experience, so the addition of Jackson Trengove was useful if not more for his experience than his ability. Josh Schache was an inspired decision because he's a key forward who simply needs time. Draftees Aaron Naughton and Ed Richards are both quality young players who should make their debut some time this year. It's difficult to suggest the Bulldogs' list has improved on 2017 because of the retiring stars but young replacements were targeted for their needs and reflect a successful recruiting period. Summary: Will be desperately looking to improve on 10th from 2017 but need to recapture the desire and work rate of 2016 to achieve a finals finish. This list has genuine ability so they should be competing for a six-nine position. 10. COLLINGWOOD The Magpies' list was one of the talking points of 2017 – does it have real talent or was it overrated? Rest assured, this list has genuine ability and more can be expected of the group in 2018-19. The addition of Jaidyn Stephenson, one of the most talented players in the whole draft pool, brings serious outside speed while Nathan Murphy at pick 39 was one of the steals of the draft. Collingwood's list has its weaknesses (most notably in the back half) but they have a very talented midfield capable of much bigger things.

Summary: Should be competing for a top-eight finish in 2018. They need their stars to stay healthy to push beyond an eight-10 finish, but this is a talented list with reason to look forward to a positive future. 11. WEST COAST Holes are emerging in their list so success in the short term will depend on their young midfield's ability to cover the loss of retiring champions Matt Priddis and Sam Mitchell. The retirements of Drew Petrie and Sam Butler will also have a big impact. West Coast should feel confident that draftees Jarrod Brander and Oscar Allen are talented key-position players while their decision to trade out of the much-anticipated 2018 draft will be widely speculated upon – especially as the quality of that draft pool becomes more evident. Summary: While West Coast will aim to replicate their 2017 performance with another finals finish, it's more likely that nine-12 finishes await them in the next two to three years. 12. HAWTHORN

The changing of the guard will continue in 2018 – something not seen by many at Hawthorn for more than a decade. The loss of multiple stars in the past few years has affected their on-field fortunes and while both Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O'Meara are players of genuine talent, it is the Hawks' absence from the early part of the draft over the past six-seven years that has hurt them most. One top-20 selection since 2010 is not enough to maintain a strong talent base so anticipate the Hawks being in the middle rungs of the ladder for a number of years. They still possess absolute quality in the likes of Shaun Burgoyne, Jarryd Roughead, Cyril Rioli, Grant Birchall, Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Isaac Smith but need to avoid injury to compete with the best teams this year. Summary: The Hawks' best team will present challenges to its opposition in 2018 but they require an extraordinarily good run with injury to compete for finals. Anticipate nine-12 finishes in the foreseeable future. 13. ST KILDA The list has steadily improved over the past five or six years with the influx of young players adding to their overall talent base. But the retirements of Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna represent significant losses to a young team, particularly in terms of leadership. While replacements via free agency would have been preferred, the drafting of Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield provide much-needed elite talent to a developing team. Achieving their projected finals finish in 2018 will be a challenge as opposition clubs around them improve. Summary: They've flown under the radar in recent years carefully rebuilding their list but 2018 represents a pivotal season as they aim to play finals for the first time since 2011. While their list has nice structure and balance, it appears to lack enough elite talent to take them into the top eight so anticipate yet another nine-12 finish.

14. GOLD COAST The Suns' list remains the most enigmatic in the competition. They possess genuine talent but have struggled to combine ability with ambition – subsequently causing many pundits to question where it's all gone wrong. The losses of Gary Ablett and Adam Saad hurt because they've been two of the Suns' real contributors. Lachie Weller will provide valuable strength to the midfield while draftees Wil Powell and Charlie Ballard are rare athletes who'll need time for their bodies to mature. Gold Coast have junior stars on every line so there's still reason to believe their on-field fortunes will turn around in the near future. Summary: Won't compete for finals in 2018 but they are a club with genuine reason to believe in a positive future. While talent alone won't bring success, Gold Coast will learn much from their past mistakes. Watch for the Suns to slowly progress in the next two to three years. 15. FREMANTLE The unexpected loss of Lachie Weller has provided the Dockers with a more-than-positive return. By adding Nathan Wilson and Brandon Matera during the trade period, along with Andrew Brayshaw and Adam Cerra through the draft, Fremantle have significantly improved their list. There are still identifiable holes in the forward half but their growing midfield depth will provide them with greater options than 2017 so the natural evolution of the Dockers list continues.

Summary: Unlikely to be playing finals again short-term but are slowly building a formidable midfield group – a characteristic of coach Ross Lyon's previously successful teams. Expect Fremantle to be troublesome opposition for a number of teams although they remain a work in progress for success beyond 2020. 16. BRISBANE LIONS While the loss of Tom Rockliff will leave a significant hole short-term, the additions of Charlie Cameron and No.1 pick Cam Rayner will offset this situation – especially in two or three years. Not too much should be expected from Luke Hodge, whose value comes more from his off-field presence in developing the younger players than his ageing body on-field. The Lions' draft return was excellent. Rayner aside, Zac Bailey, Toby Wooller, Connor Ballenden and Jack Payne are all players with genuine ability who will further add to the growth of this list. Summary: Don't anticipate any significant ladder improvement but rest assured this list is developing nicely. The team is growing a strong combination of key-position and midfield prospects. Expect real improvement in 2020-21. 17. CARLTON

The turnover of another 13 players is further evidence of just how far the Blues' list deteriorated in the past four or five years. Losing Bryce Gibbs will hurt in 2018 but Carlton have done the right thing in releasing him for the opportunity to secure future young talent. While some attention will be focused on a record number of 20 recycled AFL players, the development of their younger players is evident and builds hope for the future. The drafting of Paddy Dow and Lochie O'Brien represents quality disposal skills – something desperately needed by the Blues. Summary: Despite some positive development in the youngest parts of their list, the Blues still have challenges ahead. Don't expect any dramatic ladder improvement in 2018 but Carlton have arrested their decline and are in the process of building a talented group of young players. This list is coming from a long way back and is going to take another three or four years. 18. NORTH MELBOURNE The desire to rebuild over the next three or four years is no secret and, looking at their list, they'll need that time, and then some, to achieve their next period of success. The loss of veterans Lachie Hansen, Andrew Swallow, Sam Gibson and Lindsay Thomas will further expose their younger group. Unfortunately, they don't possess the number of talented players to fill the void like many other clubs. But the drafting of Luke Davies-Uniacke was a positive step as he should play from round one and develop into a key part of their midfield over the coming years. Summary: North fans will need patience. The 2018 national draft presents a real opportunity for the Kangaroos to fast-track their rebuild as it contains some of the best under-age talent seen in the past 10 to 15 years. The Roos must be more aggressive during next year's trade and draft periods but in the meantime, a period of low ladder finishes is on the horizon.