The bookies proved themselves once again in Gameweek 6, with the Bookies’ Advantage squad returning a 76 point haul, comfortably above the 45 point gameweek average. Double-digit returns from captain Sergio Aguero (26), Heung-Min Son (15), Charlie Austin (12) and Kevin de Bruyne (10) were the catalysts for a solid performance. With Gameweek 7 just around the corner, read on as we present our customary analysis and squad picks…

Defensive odds

Team Clean sheet odds Chance of a clean sheet Man Utd 54% Arsenal 2 50% Chelsea 2.25 44% Liverpool 2.5 40% Everton 38% Sunderland 35% West Ham 34% Watford 3 33% Leicester 3 33% Man City 31% West Brom 3.4 29% Bournemouth 4.05 25% Southampton 24% Middlesbrough 24% Tottenham 5.1 20% Crystal Palace 6 17% Hull 7.5 13% Burnley 8.1 12% Swansea 8.4 12% Stoke 9.7 10%

Manchester United top the bookies’ defensive rankings for Gameweek 7 with a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet when they host Stoke, who sit 19th in the league after 6 games. The Potters have the joint-worst attacking record (4 goals scored) in the division, so Jose Mourinho’s troops should be confident of adding to the 2 shutouts they have already accrued this season. David de Gea and Antonio Valencia offer security of starts, with the latter also offering an attacking threat, and make our starting XI.

Arsenal rank second for the gameweek with a 50% chance of keeping Burnley at bay when they travel to Turf Moor on Sunday. The Gunners registered their second clean sheet of the campaign last time out against Chelsea, and with the Clarets blanking in 3 of their 6 games so far, further defensive returns could be on the cards for the North London club. Laurent Koscielny and Nacho Monreal form part of a settled back 4 for Arsene Wenger and start for our squad this weekend.

Chelsea (44%), Liverpool (40%) and Everton (38%) complete the top 5 defensive prospects for fantasy managers this weekend. Chelsea travel to Hull on Saturday, and having been defensively frail of late (conceding 7 in 3 matches), changes are expected, including the return of captain John Terry, who makes our bench. Liverpool’s trip to South Wales to tackle Swansea presents them with an opportunity to keep their first clean sheet of the season, but with David de Gea assured between the sticks for United and the Reds looking shaky at the back, we opt for Alex Manninger (£4.0m) to complete our goalkeeping requirements and save funds. The Toffees, who harbour the second best defence in the league after Tottenham (4 goals conceded), entertain Crystal Palace on Friday evening, but we again opt to save funds for our midfield and attack by selecting Tyias Browning (£4.0m) for the final spot on our bench.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Burnley (12% – home to Arsenal), Swansea (12% – home to Liverpool) and Stoke (10% – away to Man United) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Anytime goalscorer odds Chance of scoring Zlatan Ibrahimovic 1.91 52% Diego Costa 1.95 51% Romelu Lukaku 2.1 48% Daniel Sturridge 2.25 44% Sergio Aguero 2.3 43% Olivier Giroud 2.3 43% Alexis Sanchez 2.3 43% Marcus Rashford 2.3 43% Sadio Mane 2.4 42% Roberto Firmino 2.4 42% Michy Batshuayi 2.4 42% Wayne Rooney 2.55 39% Eden Hazard 2.6 38% Odion Ighalo 2.7 37% Jamie Vardy 2.7 37% Philippe Coutinho 2.75 36% Troy Deeney 2.75 36% Jermain Defoe 2.8 36% Kelechi Iheanacho 2.9 34% Simone Zaza 3.1 32% Yannick Bolasie 3.15 32% Salomon Rondon 3.2 31% Ross Barkley 31% Riyad Mahrez 31% Charlie Austin 3.3 30% Callum Wilson 3.3 30% Dimitri Payet 3.3 30% Alvaro Negredo 3.3 30% Michail Antonio 3.3 30% Shane Long 3.35 30% Christian Benteke 3.5 29% Son Heung-Min 3.5 29% Joshua King 3.7 27% Willian 3.7 27% Vincent Janssen 3.75 27% Andre Gray 3.75 27% Kevin Mirallas 3.75 27% Gerard Deulofeu 3.75 27% Manuel Lanzini 3.75 27% Raheem Sterling 3.8 26% Mesut Ozil 3.9 26% Nacer Chadli 4.2 24% Erik Lamela 4.33 23% Duncan Watmore 4.33 23% Cristhian Stuani 4.33 23% Santiago Cazorla 4.33 23% David Silva 4.4 23% Borja Baston 4.5 22% Dusan Tadic 4.5 22% Gylfi Sigurdsson 4.5 22% Abel Hernandez 4.5 22% Christian Eriksen 4.6 22% Nathan Redmond 5 20% Jordon Ibe 5.1 20% Sam Vokes 5.2 19% Gaston Ramirez 5.5 18% Wilfried Bony 5.8 17% Roberto Pereyra 6 17% Bojan 6.1 16% Marko Arnautovic 6.1 16% Andros Townsend 6.1 16% Wilfried Zaha 6.1 16% Robert Snodgrass 6.5 15% Leroy Fer 7 14% Etienne Capoue 11 9%

Zlatan Ibrahimovic finds himself atop the bookmakers’ attacking ranks this weekend with a 52% chance of finding the net against Stoke. However, we opt to omit the Swede from our squad because of the viable, and significantly cheaper, alternative that is Marcus Rashford (43%), allowing us to really bulk out the rest of our attack and midfield. The English starlet has also notched 3 times in his last 4 Premier League outings, compared to Zlatan’s 1 strike over the same period.

As a result, Diego Costa (51%) dons our captain’s armband for Gameweek 7. The fiery Spaniard has scored 5 goals in 6 league games this term, and, with the Blues faltering recently, will be required to maintain that output against Hull on Saturday if Antonio Conte’s men are to prevent their title challenge from fading by early October. Romelu Lukaku (48%) joins Rashford and Costa up front for us, with the big Belgian enjoying a plum home tie against Crystal Palace on Friday evening. The Eagles have conceded in all of their games so far this season, giving the Everton hitman a great opportunity to add to his current tally of 4 league goals.

Viable options that we have had to overlook up front include Daniel Sturridge (43%), Sergio Aguero and Olivier Giroud (both 43%), with their high prices severely detrimental to our midfield should we opt for them.

Our first midfield pick this weekend is Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez (43%). Currently playing up front for the Gunners, the Chilean has hit 5 goals in his last 6 games in all competitions and faces a Burnley side that have conceded 7 in their last 4 on Sunday. Liverpool’s Brazilian duo Roberto Firmino (42%) and Philippe Coutinho (36%) join Alexis in our starting XI. Opponents Swansea have conceded 7 goals in just 3 home games this season, so Firmino (3 in 7 in all competitions) and Coutinho (4 in 7 in all competitions) will be confident of adding to their totals on Saturday.

Completing our midfield and starting XI for Gameweek 7 is Yannick Bolasie. The DR Congo attacker offers an intriguing double-up on the Everton attack with Romelu Lukaku ahead of a meeting with his former club on Friday. Watford’s Etienne Capoue, who has an agreeable home fixture against Bournemouth, once again takes the first spot on our bench, with his budget-friendly price and form (4 goals in 6) continuing to make him the perfect enabler for our squad.

The bookies also fancy the chances of Senegalese flyer Sadio Mane (42%) and Belgian wizard Eden Hazard (38%), but we unfortunately have to pass on both due to them being too heavy on the budget.

TEAM OF THE WEEK

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.