How will measures like canceling events and social distancing help save lives during the global coronavirus pandemic? The answer can be found in a concept that, like many things including the term “social distancing” itself, wasn’t part of most people’s vocabularies before this week: “flattening the curve.”

A graph inspired by date from the CDC 13 years ago explains why officials are canceling public events.

“Flattening the curve” refers to a way of thinking about the different ways an epidemic can play out. With no intervention, the number of cases escalates quickly, overburdening the healthcare system.

In his viral tweet thread about the graph, Drew Harris, a population health analyst at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia, said, “epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent.”

“However,” he added, “this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It’s the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent.”

Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent. pic.twitter.com/VOyfBcLMus — Drew A. Harris, DPM, MPH (@drewaharris) February 28, 2020

Harris’ graph added a dotted line, to illustrate his point that a surge in cases maxes out the healthcare system, meaning COVID-19 patients suffer, as do others who need healthcare for other reasons.

“Folks in the preparedness and public health community have been thinking about all of these issues for many years,” Harris told The New York Times. “Understanding and managing surge is an important part of preparedness.”

That is where mitigation tactics, like social distancing, come in. Yes, the economy is certain to take a hit. And people will still get sick. But, when they do, the healthcare system will be better prepared to take care of them.

-- Lizzy Acker

503-221-8052, lacker@oregonian.com, @lizzzyacker

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