STERLING HAS taken a beating in recent weeks on fears of a no-deal Brexit, briefly falling to a two-year low against the euro on August 8th. Now the British economy has taken one too. Official figures released on August 9th showed that GDP shrank by 0.2% in the second quarter, its first dip in seven years. That surprised market commentators and the Bank of England, which had pencilled in stagnation, not contraction. Manufacturing output slid by 2.3%, its sharpest quarterly decline since 2009. The services sector, normally dependable, barely grew.

Brexit-induced volatility explains some of the drop. Nervous businesses brought forward production and built up stockpiles ahead of March 29th—the day on which Britain was first due to leave the European Union—hoping to minimise disruption after Brexit. That helped push GDP growth to 0.5% in the first quarter, but pulled it down in the second, as companies ran down their stocks. Car production fell by 5% in the second quarter as factories advanced their summer shutdowns to April to avert the expected Brexit-related chaos.

All this means a recession—defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction—is unlikely. But even after recent volatility is stripped away, the economy is decelerating. The Office for National Statistics computes that the six-month-on-six-month growth rate slid from 1% in the second half of 2018 to 0.5% in the first half of 2019. To some extent, this mirrors slowing elsewhere in the world. But Britain’s dismal performance stands out. While the Purchasing Managers’ Index output survey has become gloomier across rich countries, Britain is at the bottom of the league table, as the Bank of England noted on August 1st. Investment, too, has underperformed, suggesting that Brexit uncertainty has put businesses off big projects.

And now another Brexit deadline looms. Firms will probably start stockpiling again in the run-up to the new leaving date, October 31st. Companies warn that, if Britain departs without a deal, they will then shed workers and slash investment. Buckle up.