9/24 Recap: Existing home sales continued to improve. However, the seasonally adjusted numbers are probably slightly inflated. In addition, the largest increase in sales came from the northeast part of the country. The pace of home sales there will begin to moderate at some point. The STLFSI showed improvement, while weekly unemployment claims increased slightly. There is continuing evidence that federal data is overstating the number of unemployment claims. However, even if an adjustment were made, claims would remain below the baseline. Despite individual data issues, the MoC, as an aggregate of plotted points, provides a reliable indicator of economic conditions. The economy is recovering, but there is still weakness. This is indicated by the leading indicators (LD) lagging behind the MoC.

