In the seven weeks since Republican Gov. Jan Brewer signed Arizona's tough new immigration law, there has been a sharp increase in the number of Latinos registering to vote as Democrats, party officials say, jumping from about 100 a week before to 500 now.

Many of those registering are young Latino citizens whose parents may be undocumented.

"Before, it used to be hard," said Luis Heredia, executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party. "Now, they are just saying, 'Can you give me a form?' or, 'I am already registered, but I know someone who isn't.' "

Heredia and others who watch voting trends aren't surprised.

As soon as Brewer signed the law on April 23, they began predicting that Senate Bill 1070 would ignite a political backlash similar to what happened in California after voters there passed Proposition 187, a ballot initiative to clamp down on illegal immigration by prohibiting undocumented people from receiving health care, public education and other services.

The Republican-sponsored measure was declared unconstitutional and struck down by the courts, but the damage had been done: The 1994 measure is widely pointed to for solidifying California's growing Latino population as Democratic and tipping the then-Republican state to a solidly Democratic one.

The recent rallies and marches by opponents show that Arizona's immigration law has already stirred a backlash, primarily among Latinos. But there are significant differences between Arizona and California that make it less likely for even a significant growth in the Latino voting bloc to push Arizona from red to blue anytime soon, political analysts say.

"It's not going to have the same partisan effect," said Louis DeSipio, a political-science professor at the University of California-Irvine and an expert on Latino politics and voting.

Arizona is overall more conservative than California and has fewer moderate and liberal voters than California, he said. Arizona also has fewer Asian- and African-American voters, who tend to vote Democratic.

"Arizona is different in that, first, the Latino vote is lower, about 12 percent versus 21 percent," DeSipio said. "And even if that grows, which I predict that it will, those newly participating Arizona Hispanics, who tend to vote Democratic, have fewer non-Hispanic Democrats to ally with to shift the state's politics."

Similar issues

In 1994, California was facing challenges with illegal immigration similar to Arizona's today. The border with Mexico near San Diego had become a major corridor for illegal immigration, and the state's undocumented population had soared. Like Arizona today, California also was struggling with a weak economy.

Then-California Gov. Pete Wilson, a Republican, was facing a tough re-election, similar to Brewer's election campaign now in Arizona. Wilson became a major supporter of Prop. 187. He ran television ads featuring grainy footage of immigrants rushing into the country illegally. The commercials ended with Wilson declaring, "Enough is enough."

Wilson won re-election, and voters overwhelmingly approved the ballot measure. But Republicans paid a price with Latino voters, who by and large came to view Prop. 187 as an attack on California's Hispanic population.

"It was not until Pete Wilson and the Republican Party started running these pro-Prop. 187 campaigns showing hordes of illegal immigrants streaming across the border that made Latinos in California feel like they were being scapegoated for the economic downturn," said Rodolfo Espino, a political-science professor at Arizona State University.

In the years that followed, hundreds of thousands of Latinos registered to vote, including many previous legal permanent residents who became U.S. citizens.

"Honest to God, I was not thinking of becoming a citizen. I was perfectly happy being a legal permanent resident," said Ben Monterroso, a Guatemalan immigrant who lived in California at the time and now lives part-time in Arizona. "Proposition 187 motivated me and a million others to do the same thing. . . . I remember having a house party with my compadres. Fifteen of us filled out the paperwork together."

Until Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected governor in 2003, no Republican had won a major statewide office in California since 1994.

Even Schwarzenegger, a liberal Republican, has been careful not to alienate California's large Latino voting bloc. He has said that he opposes Arizona's immigration law, saying on NBC's "Tonight Show," "I would never do that in California. No way."

Latinos galvanized

Monterroso said the passage of Arizona's immigration law is galvanizing Latinos the same way Prop. 187 did in California. Arizona's immigration law makes it a state crime to be in the country illegally. It states that an officer engaged in a lawful stop, detention or arrest shall, when practicable, ask about a person's legal status when reasonable suspicion exists that the person is in the U.S. illegally.

"What you see in the streets, most of the marches and protests you see, people are going out and asking people to vote," said Monterroso, who is now national director of Mi Familia Vota, a nonpartisan organization that works to increase the number of Latino voters across the country.

But whether marches and protests can translate into large numbers of Latino voters remains to be seen. Arizona has a large untapped pool of about 400,000 unregistered Latinos eligible to vote, Monterroso said.

But Arizona doesn't have the large unions that helped organize Latino voters in California. The state also doesn't have the same large network of community activists as California, said Espino, the ASU professor.

Espino said it could take years to see if the immigration law has an effect on Arizona's political landscape.

"It took about six to 10 years before we started seeing Latinos voting in great numbers against the Republican Party and Republican candidates to make California a solidly blue state," he said.

A poll conducted by ASU researchers indicates that 81 percent of registered Latino voters oppose SB 1070 either strongly or somewhat that and 59 percent blame Republicans. But the poll also indicated that 60 percent of Latino voters also blame Democrats for not doing enough to block the law.

"So, yes, Latinos are putting the majority of the blame on the Republican Party, but they are not particularly enthused about how the Democratic Party stood on this, or actually sort of laid down on this," Espino said.

Matt Roberts, communications director for the Arizona Republican Party, said he does not believe SB 1070 will create a groundswell of Latino Democratic voters. Although the law may turn some Latino voters away from the Republican Party, it also could attract Latino voters who support tougher immigration enforcement.

"I don't think this issue in Arizona is going to be the same as it was in California," Roberts said. "There is a big difference between having immigrants pay for benefits and having Arizona enforce what is a federal law."

But Tempe resident Javier Zuluaga, 39, a small-business owner and a Latino Republican, disagrees. He is a member of Somos Republicans, a group trying to boost the number of Latino Republicans.

Zuluaga said Latino values mesh well with the Republican Party. But the new immigration law is going to drive Latino voters away from the party because many Hispanics fear they will be targeted under the law even if they are U.S. citizens.

"Latinos are pro-family," he said. "They favor strong national defense. They are pro-Second Amendment and pro-fiscal responsibility. All this fits with the Republican Party.

"What doesn't fit is this right-wing approach to immigration."



Latino voters

Latinos account for about 30 percent of Arizona's population but a much smaller share of the state's more than 3 million registered voters.

� The Arizona Democratic Party has identified about 419,000 Hispanic voters in Arizona, or about 14 percent of all registered voters.

� About 212,000 Hispanic voters, nearly 51 percent, are registered Democrats.

� About 70,000 Hispanic voters, nearly 17 percent, are registered Republicans.

Sources: Arizona Democratic Party, Arizona Secretary of State