The impact on women was the most dramatic. Young women living in areas with the greatest inequality were 15 to 27 percent less likely to marry before having a child than women in areas with lower inequality. They also found that in areas where men outnumber women, a women is more likely to get married before having a child. The reasoning for this has more to do with money than love. “This is consistent with the idea that when women are in short supply, they can bargain more effectively for marriage or a partnership prior to childbirth,” the authors write.

The study also found a correlation between an area’s high unemployment rates and a greater likelihood that a man would have a child out of wedlock. For both men and women, the larger the availability of medium-skilled jobs, the more likely they were to marry before having their first child. Why exactly, does the economy play a role in marriage decisions? The researchers give this explanation: Men without well-paying jobs are not seen as marriage material. “These men would be less desirable as marriage partners because of their reduced earning potential,” writes Cherlin, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins and the main author of the study.

He argues that a college degree seems to be a good indicator of the choices millennials will make about getting married or starting a family. His previous research shows that millennials without college degrees are now more likely to have a child without getting married first. Among parents aged 26 to 31 who didn't graduate from college, 74 percent of the mothers and 70 percent of the fathers had at least one child outside of marriage, Cherlin found.

“The lofty place that marriage once held among the markers of adulthood is in serious question among early adults,” he writes.

Both the new study and Cherlin’s earlier work focuses on millennials without college degrees, since they are more likely to have a child by now. This means college-educated millennials were underrepresented in the research. But Cherlin says his research shows the importance of strengthening middle-market jobs and training young adults for them, arguing that doing so would increase family stability.

“We'd have a larger percentage of children born to married couples, who tend to stay together longer than do cohabiting couples,” says Cherlin, via email. “So improving job opportunities for high school graduates, something we'd like to do anyway, would benefit the family lives of young adults and their children.”

In the meantime, it looks like going to college, or at least moving to areas with less inequality, may also improve a person’s chances of getting married before starting a family. And this, Cherlin says, is what most young people still want anyway.

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