With the federal election barely seven weeks away, most polls indicate Canada is heading towards a minority government.

While opinion surveys show the NDP in the lead, the ruling Conservatives are still widely predicted at this stage to win the most seats, given how each parties’ bases of voter support fall. That would mean Stephen Harper will remain prime minister after the Oct. 19 election.

In that happens, what will the NDP and Liberals do?

Will Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau put aside their differences and work together to defeat the Harper government in Parliament at the first possible chance?

Once Harper loses a crucial non-confidence vote on the speech from the throne or the budget, he would be forced to ask Gov.-Gen. David Johnston to dissolve Parliament and call another election. But Johnston could ask the leader of the second-place party if he could form a government.

And that’s when it becomes tricky for Mulcair and Trudeau.

Most political pundits are promoting the idea that the NDP and Liberals would form a coalition government, with MPs from both parties serving as cabinet ministers.

It’s an easy scenario to paint, but the reality is that it’s fraught with pitfalls, jealousies and potential public resistance. In addition, Trudeau says he has no interest in a coalition and Mulcair doesn’t have very much more enthusiasm.

Back in late 2008, the Liberals and NDP actually tried to form a coalition and defeat the Harper minority. The Bloc Québécois, although not a formal partner in the coalition, agreed not to introduce any non-confidence motions until the agreement expired.

Harper accused the NDP and Liberals of entering an “unholy alliance” with the separatist Bloc. Most Canadians were also uncomfortable with the notion that the Bloc would help prop up the coalition. The Liberals later abandoned the idea altogether.

Today, the Bloc is no longer a force, but Harper would still likely attack the idea of an “unholy, undemocratic alliance” between the opposition parties.

Rather than trying to form a troublesome coalition, though, the best way for the NDP and Liberals to oust Harper would be to work together under a written accord with a two-year expiration date.

Such an accord would offer the governor-general the ideal argument for allowing the second-place party to govern rather than opting for a quick, costly election. Also, the agreement would allow both the NDP and Liberals to push through legislation they favour, provide a stable political environment for several years and avoid an early election for which both parties would be ill-prepared when it came to money.

To see how such an accord can work, voters only need to look at the 1985 “Liberal-NDP Accord” in Ontario.

On May 2, 1985, the Ontario Conservatives under new leader Frank Miller won 52 seats in the provincial election, enough for a minority government. The Liberals under David Peterson won 48 seats and the NDP under Bob Rae won 25 seats.

Just days after the election, Peterson and Rae signed the accord in which the NDP vowed to support a Liberal government for two years and the Liberals promised to introduce policies Rae wanted to implement, notably pay equity and a ban on extra billing by doctors.

In mid-June, the Liberals and NDP defeated the Tories on a non-confidence vote. Miller met with Lt.-Gov. John Aird, reportedly to ask for a new election. But Aird opted to ask Peterson to form a government.

It took just eight days between the defeat of Miller’s government and Peterson being sworn in as premier.

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The two-year accord was declared a success by Liberal and NDP politicians, as well as business and community leaders. Two years later when the accord expired, Peterson called an election in which the Liberals easily won a majority government.

If the current election ends up in a minority Conservative government, the NDP and Liberals should copy the lessons from the 1985 Ontario accord experience – and unceremoniously boot Harper out of the Prime Minister’s Office the first chance they get.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Sunday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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