Could Wings trade down in draft? Team weighs options

The NHL is about to engage in its annual two-day gambling habit, when 30 teams bet on which players can turn into winnings.

The events begin with Friday's first round, a leisurely paced showcase of the best teenaged hockey players in the world. Saturday features rounds 2-7, which is where teams can see long odds pay off. In 2011 the Wings used the 205th pick to draft defenseman Alexey Marchenko - and now he's a good bet to start next season in Detroit.

The Wings hold the 19th selection on Friday at BB&T Center in Sunrise, Fla. Their second round pick belongs to Dallas because of the Eric Cole trade, but because the Wings didn't make it out of the first round, they get Dallas' third-round pick, at 73rd. The other selections are at 110, 140, 170 and 200.

Like every other team, the Wings' approach is to "pick the best player," assistant general manager Ryan Martin told the Free Press. "But we would like to add a goalie to our system, and we didn't draft any defensemen last year, partly because of what we thought of the D in the draft and also because we have young defensemen in Grand Rapids."

The Wings chose six forwards and one goalie in 2014. The prize pick was taken at 15th overall, where the Wings selected Waterford's Dylan Larkin, a forward who since has excelled at U-M, World Juniors, the World Championship, and the AHL. In contrast, Anthony Mantha, whom the Wings drafted 20th overall in 2013, struggled through his first year pro.

The two are good examples of the uncertainty of figuring out teenagers.

"It's difficult because of differences in maturity, world experiences, upbringing, socio-economic issues - whatever it might be, it's difficult to gauge many players' character," Martin said. "Ken Holland used to say he's got four kids and at age 18, he wasn't sure what they were going to be - and he's been around them every day of their lives.

"We're trying to make our evaluations on players we've known over the course of 8-to-16 months, on what we think they're going to be in 3-to-5 years. That's very difficult. When you're evaluating 17-18 year olds, you make a lot of assumptions - they're going to get stronger; in many cases they're going to grow more. They're going to improve whatever the deficiency is that they have through proper guidance and instruction."

If he's still available when the Wings pick, forward Joel Eriksson Ek is a likely choice. At 18 he's already 6-foot-2, and he split 2014-15 between Farjestad Jr (21 goals, 11 assists, 25 games) and Farjestad Swedish Hockey League (4 goals, 2 assists, 34 games). Other players projected to be mid-to-late first-round picks include forwards Travis Konecny (OHL), Brock Boeser (USHL) and Denis Guryanov (KHL) and defensemen Noah Juulsen (WHL), Thomas Chabot (QMJHL), Oliver Kylinkton (Sweden) and Jeremy Roy (QMJHL).

NHL mock draft: Red Wings go Swedish in first round

It's possible the Wings may trade down a few picks as they did two years ago, when they moved from 18th to 20th in the first round because the Wings were certain Mantha would still be available. As a result, the Wings gained a second second-round pick, at 58th overall, and turned that into Tyler Bertuzzi.

Asked about the possibility of something similar happening this year, Martin didn't rule it out. "Especially since we don't have a second-round pick, the possibility of trading back to acquire an extra pick is always there," he said. "We wait until the closest we can to our pick and then we assess the names on our list and if there is somebody that we really want that we don't want to chance that they're gone, then we wouldn't do it. But if there are several players that are all within the same range, and we are happy with any of them, then we might do it to get another pick."

Martin was lukewarm on the idea of the Wings trading up. The Arizona Coyotes are rumored to be willing to trade their first-round pick, at third overall, which would put the Wings within reach of defenseman Noah Hanifin, widely considered to be NHL ready. But making a move up would be costly, and therefore "I don't think we'll do it, but you never known," Martin said. "July 1 is as bleak as it's ever been, so the only way to change the makeup of your team other than July 1 is via trade, and therefore, I think there is a lot of chatter, names being thrown around. There are some pretty high-end names being thrown out. If we were to engage in a scenario like that and picks were changing hands as an option to move up, I don't really see that happening."

After years of trading first-round picks for veterans in search of immediate gratification, the Wings changed direction in 2013, the first time they had a first-round pick since drafting Riley Sheahan in 2010. Now comes the challenge of going for another jackpot win like Larkin.

Contact Helene St. James: hstjames@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @helenestjames.