Prof Colin Rallings with his 2016 local elections prediction pic.twitter.com/Pl6W0871Bn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016

Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote share for May elections

CON 33

LAB 30

LD 16

UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016

Today it’s been the annual local elections briefing hosted by the Political Studies Association. As per usual Profs Rallings and Thrasher announced their predictions based on party performances in local by elections which take place almost every week.

They have a complex model and produce two main sets of data: their national equivalent vote share projection and their forecast of seats that the parties are expected to win and lose on May 5th.

The problem for LAB is that 2012, when most of the seats up were last fought, was a high point for EdM’s party taking place only weeks after George Osborne’s first omnishambles budget.

The LDs, no longer in coalition with the Tories, are projected to do better and this could be the first set of local elections in a few years when they come third both on seats and votes.

The progress, certainly in terms of votes, that UKIP saw in the run up to the general election appears to be over with their by-election vote shares at about half the level of a year ago. No doubt people will endeavour to make referendum predictions on how they do.

The Tories for all their current difficulties are expected to beat LAB on national equivalent vote – an extraordinary performance for a party a year from a general election.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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