There’s no 10-cent fare hike actively under discussion — yet. But the TTC’s chief executive is warning that transit riders should probably brace for sardine-like conditions on the buses and the possibility of higher ticket prices in the New Year.

Gary Webster said a fare increase is probably unavoidable, given that the transit system still has a $30 million outstanding shortfall on its 2012 operating budget.

• Read: Gary Webster’s letter to TTC workers

A budget report released Tuesday by the Toronto Transit Commission recommends a host of stringent cost-cutting measures, including eliminating about 1,000 jobs, a return to old crowding standards on the buses and the termination of Wheel-Trans service to some dialysis patients. But that won’t be enough to entirely eliminate a combined $101 million operating shortfall being faced next year by the TTC, including its paratransit system.

The report is before the city councillors on the commission at a special meeting Friday.

But that is too soon to put ticket prices on the table, Webster said. The last thing the system needs is to trigger token hoarding in September as transit officials continue the search for other efficiencies this fall.

“We’re well aware that there are contracting-out opportunities being pursued; there’s all this service review process underway. Will there be some savings coming from that? Yeah. Will there be $30 million? I don’t think so. Are we likely going to need a fare increase? I think so. But we need to see where we end up in December,” he told the Toronto Star.

“We can make a decision in December and still have a fare increase in January,” Webster said.

Meantime, the TTC is recommending a return in January to old standards for how much crowding is allowed on the system — a move expected to drive 3.7 million riders right off the system. The shame, said Webster, is that some will never return to transit even if there’s relief in future years.

The TTC is also preparing to evict dialysis patients from Wheel-Trans to save $5 million annually. Many are frail but will not qualify for the expensive door-to-door service because they don’t use wheelchairs or walkers.

About 1,000 TTC jobs will be eliminated, including about 500 unionized positions — some through attrition, some through voluntary buy-outs and layoffs.

But it’s the return to pre-2008 loading standards that will affect most customers. Riders, already struggling to find a place on the bus, will be packed tighter and wait longer on about 50 rush-hour routes and about 60 routes in the off-peak, in a bid to save $11.7 million annually.

The service rollback will affect customer service at the worst possible time, with the TTC expecting record ridership next year of about 15 million more trips.

“Considering where we are on customer satisfaction, this is not the direction we want to be going in with customer service. It’s a contradiction,” said transit workers union president Bob Kinnear. “We’re already overcrowded. That’s one of the biggest deterrents from people using the system.”

He also warned that contracting out TTC jobs poses a danger to the public because it’s critical that safety regulations be applied consistently throughout the system.

“Our cleaning people are not just cleaning people, they’re the eyes and the ears of the system. They’re thoroughly trained on how to respond to a variety of instances,” said Kinnear.

• SURVEY: Thestar.com readers would higher taxes, TTC fares over cuts

The TTC is not supporting the city manager’s proposal to cut the Blue Night bus network that serves about 12,000 riders a day.

“Some of our customers have no other way of getting to or from work. We see that as part of our core business. This is not a city that only works for 20 hours — it’s a 24-hour city,” Webster said.

City councillor and TTC chair Karen Stintz downplayed the possibility of a fare increase, telling reporters: “The mayor’s office has been clear — they don’t want a fare increase. I think we have to be able to demonstrate to the public that we’ve done everything we can, internally, to do more with less before we go out and ask them to contribute.”

She also stressed that there would be no wholesale route cuts such as the evening and weekend service reductions taken last May.

“It could be that people wait a minute or two more for a bus. It could be they find the bus a little more crowded. But every route will be operating, so people who rely on that route will have that service,” said Stintz.

TTC commissioners will also consider a capital budget report at Friday’s meeting that Webster called “a higher risk story.”

Faced with a $1.5 billion capital shortfall over the next 10 years, the TTC has cancelled a plan to add 10 more Toronto Rocket subway trains to its current order, to save $161 million; 15 new streetcars to save $70.8 million; and 134 buses, for $49.8 million.

Those and other measures will eliminate about half the capital shortfall. But since most of the outstanding $750 million gap is in the first five years of the expansion plan, the problem isn’t solved, said Webster.

While the TTC is set to begin taking delivery of new streetcars in 2013, there’s no money to build the storage yard at Ashbridge’s Bay, for about $300 million.

“As painful as the operating budget is, there are solutions, at least for this year. We have a capital budget problem and there’s no answer for that. We’ve gone as far as we can go. There are some real short-term issues,” he said.

With files from Daniel Dale

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Packing the Dufferin bus

To see what rolling back loading standards means, take the example of the Dufferin bus, a route that carries streetcar-like passenger loads of about 40,000 riders a day.

It runs every 2 minutes and 37 seconds in the morning rush. Under the recommended return to pre-2008 loading standards, that interval would be lengthened to 2 minutes and 54 seconds, increasing the passenger load by five people on average.

But, given the traffic congestion on Dufferin and the TTC’s struggle to keep crowding at bay on the route, it’s likely many riders will wait much longer, and some will inevitably be left at the curb because the bus is full at peak hours.

TTC budget by the numbers

Combined 2012 operating shortfall (TTC and Wheel-Trans): $101 million

Cost-cutting measures, totaling $70 million, recommended to councillors on the Toronto Transit Commission, include:

$15 million Diesel fuel

$14 million Staff cuts at the TTC, Wheel-Trans and Toronto Coach Terminal

$5.5 million Service cutbacks on 50 routes, rush-hour

$8.2 million Service cutbacks on 60 routes, off-peak

$5 million Reduced costs for overtime and absenteeism

$2 million Workforce gapping levels (letting more time lapse between a job becoming vacant and being filled)

$2 million Reduced promotional campaigns, security and other services

$5 million Unspecified property issue saving

$5 million Eliminating Wheel-Trans service for dialysis patients who don’t use mobility aids

$3 million Wheel-Trans efficiencies

Gain of $5 million in advertising revenue