Do GHCN Know What They Are Doing?

By Paul Homewood

I have been following the saga of GHCN temperature adjustments for three months now. Large numbers of adjustments, mostly adding an artificial warming trend, have been found throughout much of the Arctic, Australia and South America. The Iceland Met Office say the adjustments are “grossly in error”, whilst the Australian Bureau of Meteorology cannot explain them either.

In January I asked GHCN to explain these adjustments and why many of them had suddenly appeared in the latest Version 3.1. On Feb 25th, Jay Lawrimore emailed me to say

Paul,

I am very sorry but the one person who can respond to this has had one no-notice action after another that he has had to respond to during the last couple of months. I am sure he cannot get to it this coming week but we will attend to it as soon as possible.

Best regards,

Jay

Despite chasing, I still await further information.

However, it now appears there is an added complication. At each monthly update that GHCN do, many of the adjustments to historical temperatures, made in the month before, are being altered again. In some cases, in the five monthly updates since Version 3.1 was introduced last November, past temperatures have been altered four times.

For instance, in the Asian part of the Russian Federation, there are 83 GHCN stations. Of these, 27 have had the adjustments for 1940 changed since last November.

So for instance, the adjustments for Jan 1940 at Dudinka have progressed as follows :-

Nov 11 0.00 Dec 11 -0.67 Jan 12 -0.63 Feb 12 -1.14 March 12 -0.86

And at GMO :-

Nov 11 -0.57 Dec 11 -0.61 Jan 12 -0.57 Feb 12 -0.48 March 12 -1.04

The full list is in Appendix A below. Similar changes have been found in South America as well.

I have asked Reto Ruedy at GISS to confirm that they are picking up these changes as well, But he has already confirmed that changes I spotted to Ostrov Dikson’s adjustments between February and March were not a figment of my imagination.

The new algorithm introduced into Version 3.1 last November has already produced temperature adjustments which cannot be explained by GHCN. Is it too much to decide once and for all what the temperature were in 1940 and then stick to it?

In the meantime GHCN clearly have an algorithm that is not fit for purpose.

APPENDIX A – RUSSIAN FEDERATION (ASIA) – JAN 1940 ADJUSTMENTS

05/11/11 17/01/12 23/01/12 11/03/12 02/04/12 11/04/12 GMO -0.57 -0.61 -0.57 -0.48 -1.04 -1.04 OSTROV DIKSON -0.96 -0.99 -0.94 -0.23 -0.51 -0.53 MALYE -0.75 -0.62 -0.61 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60 HATANGA 1.37 1.54 1.59 1.59 1.67 1.62 OSTROV KOTEL -0.58 0.00 -0.55 -0.56 -0.58 -0.56 OSTROV VRANGE 1.26 1.26 1.20 1.30 1.44 0.00 DUDINKA 0.00 -0.67 -0.63 -1.14 -0.86 -0.86 NAR JAN MAR 0.00 -0.53 -0.50 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 SALEHARD -1.02 -1.03 -1.03 -1.13 -1.14 -1.04 TURUHANSK -0.81 -0.75 -0.74 0.00 -0.65 -0.65 TARKO SALE -1.12 -1.06 -1.05 -1.08 -1.06 -1.06 BEREZOVO -0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 OLENEK 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.32 0.34 0.34 DZARDZAN -0.59 -0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 OJMJAKON 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.00 JAKUTSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.49 0.49 MYS SMIDTA 1.55 1.54 0.55 1.64 1.60 0.57 BUHTA 0.89 0.91 0.82 0.00 0.86 0.86 MINUSINSK 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.50 0.47 0.47 BAGDARIN 1.75 1.70 1.78 1.75 1.72 1.72 CITA -0.48 -0.10 -0.56 -0.08 -0.07 -0.08 KYRA -0.27 0.00 -0.27 -0.25 -0.27 -0.27 BORZJA -0.89 -0.89 -0.85 -0.87 -0.89 -0.89 ALDAN -0.57 -0.48 -0.52 -0.44 -0.43 -0.46 VLADIVOSTOK -0.48 -0.49 -0.49 0.00 -0.47 0.00 PORONAJSK -0.26 -0.26 -0.28 -0.31 0.00 0.00 VAJAMPOLK 0.00 0.00 -0.33 -0.29 0.00 0.00 UST CILMA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TROICKO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NJAKSIMVOL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BOR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BAJKIT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CERDYN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IVDEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 HANTY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ALEKSANDROVSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 VERHOJANSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ZHIGANSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TURA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 VILJUJSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 SUNTAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 VANAVARA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 UST MAJA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MYS UELEN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ZYRJANKA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MARKOVO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ANADYR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 KORF 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 LEUSI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BISER 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TOBOLSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 KRASNOUFIMSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TARA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 SADRINSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 OMSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 UFA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 KOLPASEVO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ENISEEJSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BOGUCANY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 KRASNOJARSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BARABINSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IRTYSSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 VITIM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 KIRENSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BRATSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CARA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ZIGALOVO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BARGUZIN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MOGOCA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IRKUTSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NERCINSKIJ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 KJAHTA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 OHOTSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AJAN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BOMNAK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EKIMCAN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NIKOLAEVSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 POLINY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EKATERINO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DAL NERECENSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ALEKSANDROVSK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 KLJUCI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NIKOL SKOE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00