Binance

Another month is nearly over, meaning bitcoin fiat settled futures at CME expire this Friday.

That tends to coincide with a fall in bitcoin’s price, but it isn’t very clear what will happen this time not least because futures volumes have dropped considerably to about $150 million a day from circa $500 million or more.

Bitcoin price on daily candles, Oct 2019

Bitcoin’s price has been sidewaying since the last time futures expired near September 24th when it saw a huge drop.

Usually price rises once futures expire, but this time it seems to be undecided with the launch of Bakkt not contributing much either way.

The reason for the somewhat rare stability might be because the currency rose considerably and very quickly, so it arguably needed some calmness.

It’s still nearly triple the price it had in December 2018, but less than half that of 2017, with the cycle sort of playing similar to that of the last “bubble” in 2014.

For that year, price performed very badly, with it stabilizing after reaching a bottom in 2015, to then rise in 2016, and spike in 2017.

So placing this year at 2015 if it follows the same cycle again which in part might be due to the mining algorithm and the supply halvenings.

This stability might also be because there’s also a bit more calmness geopolitically where the economy is concerned, with the Yuan for example sort of stable after the chances of a trade deal increased.

In UK too it looks like markets have now priced-in a deal, with a vote later today. It appears likely the vote will pass, but parliament might not be happy with the short time it has been given to scrutinize the bill, so they might vote down the programme motion.

If they do, the Prime Minister has said he will withdraw the bill and call for an election.

An extension has already been asked, which EU will certainly grant, with Labour probably having no choice but to go for the election.

Boris Johnson leads by a considerable margin, but there will be the campaigning which could make a difference.

Where markets are concerned, they probably expect a Boris win, this deal passing, then the trade deal, so there might be no price movement today.

Meaning this sideway might continue, but bitcoin too will presumably at some point have to make up its mind, with it unclear whether expiry Friday may contribute to it up or down.