On issues, public is more aligned with Obama than GOP

Susan Page, USA TODAY | USATODAY

WASHINGTON — President Obama starts his second term with a clear upper hand over GOP leaders on issues from guns to immigration that are likely to dominate the year, a USA TODAY/Pew Research Center Poll finds. On the legislation rated most urgent — cutting the budget deficit — even a majority of Republican voters endorse Obama's approach of seeking tax hikes as well as spending cuts.

The survey underscores the quandary for the GOP as it debates the party's message in the wake of disappointing losses last November for the White House and in the Senate.

Now just 22% of Americans, nearly a record low, consider themselves Republicans.

And those automatic spending cuts, known as the sequester, that are poised to take effect next week?

If no deal is reached to avert them, half of Americans say congressional Republicans will be more to blame. Less than a third would blame Obama first.

"On many of the issues, President Obama has staked out positions that seem to be closer to the public's thinking than the positions Republicans have staked out," says Michael Dimock, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The poll is the first in a new partnership between Pew and USA TODAY. "The challenge for him is in building the public's sense of immediacy on some of these issues, particularly on climate change and guns."

Republicans have the opposite challenge. "Their focus on the deficit is in tune with the public's priorities right now," he says. "Yet their positions are not quite in step with the kind of compromises that the public tells us they want to see."

To be sure, Obama faces his own challenges.

His approval ratings for handling seven specific issues are no better than lukewarm, ranging from a low of 34% on the deficit to a high of 46% on the situation in Afghanistan. On the central issue of managing the economy, 40% approve and 56% disapprove. Americans also continue to be deeply unhappy with the country's direction. By 2-to-1, 64%-31%, they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States.

Even so, those surveyed say by narrow margins that Obama has a better approach than congressional Republicans for dealing with the deficit and guns. By double digits, they favor his plans on immigration and climate change, including limits on emissions from power plants.

The president's overall job approval rating is 51%, a bit higher than it typically has been for the past three years. The approval rating for Republican congressional leaders is a dismal 25%. Democratic congressional leaders stand in-between, at 37%.

The telephone poll of 1,504 adults was taken by land line and cellphone Feb. 13-18. It has a margin of error of +/–3 percentage points.

Since winning re-election, Obama has outlined bolder policies and taken a less compromising stance toward the GOP lawmakers he blames for frustrating much of his legislative agenda over the past two years. In his inaugural address and State of the Union speech, and at events across the country, he has focused more on generating public support for his proposals than on forging ties with Congress to negotiate them.

"I think there is a fresh start," says Sue Mohler, 60, of Nashua, N.H., who works in computer IT support. An Obama supporter, she was among those called in the poll. "It's not as big a fresh start as we would like it to be, but I'm hopeful. I'm not as pessimistic as I was." She says she's encouraged by signs that Republican leaders are ready to shift their stance on issues such as immigration.

For her part, Lynn Wright, 47, a homemaker from Richlands, N.C., doesn't appreciate Obama's more combative tone. "I really feel like his feet are very, very, very buried in the sand," she said in a follow-up interview. "I did not vote for him, but yes, he did win. But I just don't see how he can say, 'OK, this is my time now; you guys can't tell me no.' "

Red flags on red ink

There is bipartisan agreement on this: Dealing with the budget deficit is urgent.

That's a change. When Obama took office in 2009, during a cascading financial crisis, Americans put deficit reduction in the middle of a list of policy goals in a Pew poll. Now it has risen near the top. Seven of 10 Americans (including not only 81% of Republicans but also 65% of Democrats) say it is essential for the president and Congress to enact major deficit legislation this year.

Just 4% say nothing needs to be done within the next few years.

In the wake of the Great Recession, the deficit as a percentage of the economy has spiked to its highest levels since the years following World War II. Now, after four years of topping $1 trillion, the shortfall this year is projected at $845 billion by the Congressional Budget Office.

When asked which of four issues was most pressing — the deficit, guns, immigration or climate change — 51% chose the deficit, three times that of any other issue. However, there were some significant differences by race and ethnicity. Hispanics were inclined to choose immigration as the most critical issue; African Americans chose guns.

"The biggest thing is the deficit," declares Rennie Woodhouse, 49, a foundry supervisor in Wellsboro, Pa. "I just think we're getting further and further in the hole."

To begin digging out, three of four Americans say a deficit plan should include both tax increases and spending cuts, akin to the "balanced" approach Obama backs. While there is stronger support to cut spending than raise taxes, only one in five say a deficit-reduction package should rely solely on spending cuts, the position embraced by House Speaker John Boehner.

By almost 3-to-1, 71%-26%, those surveyed favor Obama's proposal to raise the minimum wage to $9 an hour from the current $7.25. On this issue, as on some others, the GOP faces divisions in its ranks: Those who agree with the Tea Party movement oppose the idea by 2-to-1. Those who don't agree with the Tea Party support it by nearly as wide a gap.

For Ian Tate, 23, of Springfield, Ill., the threat of the deficit should take precedence over everything else even though he is himself unemployed and looking for work. "It's kind of a stalemate, a Catch-22 kind of situation," he says, expressing concern that government job-creation programs would end up worsening the budget shortfall.

The potential impact on national security from Pentagon cuts included in the sequestration worries Travis Petry, 34, a courier who lives in Lafayette, La. "North Korea, they're test-firing nukes, and the Middle East in general — it's always a problem down there," he says.

But he doesn't expect the president and Congress to succeed in reaching a deal to avoid the across-the-board cuts, scheduled to take effect March 1. "Both sides are just hardheaded," he says. "Neither is going to compromise. It's business as usual."

Most Americans aren't paying much attention to the looming deadline despite dire warnings by Obama on Tuesday that jobs could be lost and communities hurt. Only about a quarter of those surveyed say they have heard a lot about it. That's half the number who had heard a lot about the debt-ceiling showdown at a similar point last summer.

If the president and Congress can't reach a budget deal by next week, half of Americans say they should delay the spending cuts. But a significant number, four in 10, say the cuts should be allowed to go into effect.

That attitude could reflect "crisis fatigue," Dimock says. "They've seen one crisis after another, and now they're told yet another one is coming. A pretty large share of them, even a third of Democrats, are saying, 'Just let it happen.' They're throwing up their hands."

An immigration divide

A 51% majority of Americans say it's essential for the president and Congress to pass a sweeping immigration bill this year, and nearly everybody, nine in 10, say a major bill is needed within the next few years.

But to do what?

One in four want the bill to focus on better border security — that's down 10 percentage points from a year ago — and another one in four want the focus to be on creating a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants now in this country. Nearly half of those surveyed, 47%, say both should be equal priorities.

There is a predictable partisan divide on the issue: Democrats want a pathway to citizenship while Republicans back stronger security and enforcement of existing immigration laws. That could create problems for Republican leaders, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who are working on bipartisan bills that would include a path to legal status for illegal immigrants as well as border security measures.

By a wide margin, 50%-33%, Obama's approach to immigration is preferred over the GOP, and the president has seen his approval rating on handling immigration surge. During his first term, his disapproval rating on immigration was 20 points or more higher than his approval rating. Now, as many Americans approve of his work on immigration as disapprove, 44%-43%. Only his handling of Afghanistan ranks higher.

For Obama, having higher ratings than congressional Republicans doesn't guarantee passage of any legislation, given the polarization in a divided Congress. But it does put him in a stronger position to bring public pressure on lawmakers. And it complicates Republican efforts to unite a fractured party behind a message that will appeal to voters.

"Lots of things need to be passed in Congress, and it seems everything is a filibuster," says Jaime Cortez, 23, of Edinburg, Texas. "I know a lot of strong, far-right Republicans, but I just think they need to ease up and listen to the public's opinion."

While most Americans want action on the deficit and immigration this year, Obama faces a more difficult task in pressing two other priorities he's outlined, on gun control and climate change. His approach to the issues is preferred, but the public's sense of urgency is lower.

On climate change, only a third of those surveyed say action is urgent this year. Still, Americans do back stricter emission limits on power plants, a step Obama has discussed, by more than 2-to-1. By 54%-34%, they support developing alternative sources of energy over expanding production of oil and coal.

On gun control, 71% of Democrats say it's essential to pass legislation this year but only 19% of Republicans agree. Among independents, 42% want action this year.

A majority of Republicans say nothing should be done on guns now or later. That puts them at odds with Americans overall: 83% back mandating background checks for all gun buyers; 56% a ban on assault-style weapons; 53% a ban on high-capacity ammunition clips.

Monte Latham, 41, of Jacksonville, says the economy should be the top issue, but he ranks gun legislation close behind. A Navy veteran who is now studying nursing, he hopes supporters push for action while memories of the December shooting rampage in Newtown, Conn., are fresh.

"If gun control takes a back seat," he worries, "it's just going to lose that momentum."