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CALGARY • Shipments of oil by rail from Western Canada are expected to more than triple in the next two years, as the sector heads into a severe shortage of pipeline capacity by next year, according to a new forecast by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

Oil transportation by rail is expected to jump to about 700,000 barrels per day by 2016 from 200,000 bpd in late 2013, the Calgary-based lobby group predicted Monday in its annual crude oil forecast.

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Oil supplies in Western Canada from the oil sands and from new shale plays continue to increase, while four major pipeline projects — Keystone XL, the TransMountain expansion, Northern Gateway and Energy East — await regulatory approval and construction.

“The crunch point is between 2015/2016,” said Greg Stringham, vice-president for oil sands and markets at CAPP. “So far we haven’t seen any oil being shut in, it’s all being able to be produced. But when it gets that tight you start to see some impacts on the market, and the real question is how fast the rail piece can help alleviate that.”