The gap is closing.

THE GAP IS CLOSING



Just like the gap was closing in 2013... and 2014... and 2015…… but guys this year it’s really closing….



It’s actually a meme at this point. The gap never really closed (in worlds W/L); therefore it’s presumed that the gap was never closing. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THIS BECAUSE IT’S LATE AND WORLDS IS HAPPENING TOMORROW AND I’M BORED.



Think of this like a stream of consciousness rather than a well thought out article… continue at your own risk.



This thought actually started from a conversation I had with Atlus over dinner, where he asked me to put a % chance on TSM vs. RNG tomorrow (a game I get to cast with Quickshot and Spawn.) I said 60/40 in TSM’s favor. This actually surprised him a bit, as he figured an NA caster who ‘predicted’ TSM 1st in the group would think something more like 70/30 or 80/20.



Nope.



I’m trying to be as realistic as possible in regards to TSM’s chances at Worlds. I think they were domestically dominant, but that doesn’t actually mean that much historically when you translate NA to the international stage. In fact, even a 60/40 for TSM and a 1st place “prediction” slant heavily towards NA bias if you are only using past results as a metric. Cloud 9 took a 25-3 record into defeat at the hands of EU in 2013. TSM and C9 both got blasted by Samsung teams in the 2014 Quarterfinals. 2015 was 0-10 on week 2. It’s not exactly sunshine lollipops and rainbows at Worlds for even the most dominant NA teams.



Even looking at #1 NA seeds heading into worlds and comparing them to ANY Korean seeds, Korean seeds have a better overall record by a pretty wide margin. Let’s look back at some of the WORST Korean teams to ever attend worlds from a results perspective:



Samsung Galaxy Ozone : 2013 – this is the only Korean team to fail to make it out of group stage. Keep in mind in 2013 the Worlds format was different. 5 team groups – 2 teams advance. Samsung entered the tournament right after going through a huge ownership change and also had some rumored internal conflict. Even though these guys are largely cited as an example of how Korean teams are not always godlike at worlds – they went 5-3 in the group and barely missed Quarterfinals.



Najin White Shield: 2014 – This team is the one who gets compared most to 2016 Samsung. A mediocre team in the regular season who went on a stellar gauntlet run to magically appear at worlds. Even these guys finished 1st in their group which included C9 and Alliance – after beating C9 in a tiebreaker. They then lost to OMG in the quarterfinals.



Those are the two WORST Korean teams to ever play at worlds. A team that went 5-3 in groups and a team that won their group to lose in Quarters. PRETTY GOOD.



So, what is my point? It’s complicated. The gap is closing. This has been stated here and there and argued about for the past four years. All you have to do is look at the results (consistent Korean dominance) and you have a pretty solid argument that the gap isn’t closing. BUT THIS IS THE INTERNET – PEOPLE ARGUE ABOUT RANDOM THINGS ALL THE TIME.



Let’s assume for a minute that the gap is actually closing – and has been closing for the past four years. Looking at it from an NA perspective there is a progression:



C9 in 2013 – completely outclassed NA as a region. Better P/B knowledge than the rest of the league. Smarter and more decisive shotcalling than the rest of the league.



TSM in 2014 – Imported some high quality international talent. Bjergsen came over from EU. Lustboy came over from Korea. At the time of coming over – Lustboy translated a large amount of his map-play and game knowledge and helped TSM win NA.



CLG in 2015 – Better team infrastructure than ever before in NA. CLG built it all out in 2015. They had the ‘CLG compound’ they had a dedicated manager, head coach, strategic coach, remote analysts, and even worked with Weldon for some sports psychology help. This helped them overtake TSM as the #1 team in NA and even led to a 2-1 start in Worlds group stage! It didn’t end well though…



TSM,C9,CLG in 2016 – A combination of all of the previous years – just more tryhard. TSM practiced 7 days a week. C9 brought in a Korean coach as well as Impact – and even had a naturepath/mindfulness coach for NA playoffs. CLG continued to preach team-work and kept the majority of their system intact. Costs rose substantially for NA teams in 2016. Costs don’t just rise randomly – these guys really competed harder than ever before: Coaching, analysts, training schedules, the works. Every NA player I talk to says that NA was harder this year than any year prior.



But then you have Korea.



These guys have been doing it for over a decade. The infrastructure, the coaching, the hierarchy of respect amongst teams, the esports culture, the pool of soloQ talent, the effort.



YOU KNOW HOW BIG THAT GAP IS??



It’s massive.



Korea has been perfecting esports for so long that other regions may NEVER catch up. It could be like other countries trying to beat the USA at basketball. It’s close sometimes, there was that one Olympics where the USA didn’t win Gold. There are some pretty great players from outside the USA. That’s about as far as it goes.



BUT DON’T TELL ME THE GAP ISN’T CLOSING.



Final thoughts:



World’s is awesome. I love predictions. I love discussions. I love looking back at past worlds and trying to make sense of it all. Another thing I love about sports is the unpredictability. Will Korea win Worlds this year? Most likely. It would be fallacious of me to predict otherwise. Do I think other regions have a better chance this year than any year prior? Yup. THE GAP IS CLOSING.



But not really… I really do think the Korean teams are dominant and are likely to stay that way, but I am fascinated by the growth of League of Legends and esports globally and hope to see the day where other regions can actually compete with Korea. If other regions can maintain their level of involvement and effort year over year the chances of a variant year catching Korea off-guard and stopping their championship streak grows.



Could this be the year…..?





No. probably not.



See you all tomorrow! As Deficio would say: “It’s Worlds”



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