European Commission Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier/Olivier Matthys/AFP via Getty Images Groundhog Day for Brexit talks Michel Barnier slammed the UK for lack of progress after second round of negotiations about Britain’s relationship with the EU — but we’ve been here before.

Some things never change.

At a solo press conference following a round of Brexit talks in Brussels, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier warned the U.K. may not get a deal if London continues to dispute the EU’s proposed terms.

This was not just the message of a visibly annoyed Barnier on Friday — as he spoke after the second round of negotiations on future relations between the EU and the U.K. — it was also his message in February 2018, when then Prime Minister Theresa May had a list of objections to the terms of the transition period. And the EU's chief negotiator had the same message in July 2018 on May’s white paper and at a press conference in August 2018 on the U.K.’s backstop plan.

So understandably, for many Friday’s message felt like Groundhog Day.

“It’s exactly that, and it will be the same after the third round,” one EU official said.

They can't even agree what kind of deal they are aiming for. While the U.K. is looking for looser arrangements, the EU wants a comprehensive deal covering all areas.

Raoul Ruparel, a former senior Brexit adviser to the British government, agreed. “We did see these at points in the first phase where there were quite a few rows in the negotiations, particularly early on when Barnier came out and just said basically the same things and called for progress. And it wasn’t until later on that things started to move.”

Political Brexit

The U.K.’s June 2016 Brexit referendum set in train a series of events that led to the fall of a prime minister, a general election and the most complex task for the U.K. government since the unraveling of the British empire. So when current Prime Minister Boris Johnson lived up to his promise to “Get Brexit done” when the U.K. stopped being a member of the EU on January 31, many were relieved.

But as Barnier said Friday, the “political Brexit” has to be followed by an “economic Brexit” when the transition period finishes at the end of this year. The EU’s chief negotiator slammed the U.K. on Friday for a lack of progress in the talks on a deal on the future relationship, which goes beyond trade and also covers sectors such as transport, energy, law enforcement and financial services. “The U.K. cannot refuse to extend the Brexit transition period and at the same time slow down discussion on important areas,” Barnier said.

The coronavirus has delayed talks and shifted them online. That made a negotiating timeframe that was already deemed improbably nearly impossible. Barnier stressed a deal is now even more important to “limit the shock that the U.K.’s departure from the single market and customs union will entail in any case in the midst of the terrible economic crisis that is forecast due to the coronavirus crisis.”

However, on the most sensitive issues, both sides acknowledge that at the end of the second round only “limited progress was made in bridging the gaps.”

They can't even agree what kind of deal they are aiming for. While the U.K. is looking for looser arrangements, the EU wants a comprehensive deal covering all areas.

Barnier mentioned four areas in particular “in which the progress this week was disappointing,” while at the same time stressing how important these areas are for Brussels. EU capitals have made very clear that Barnier can only negotiate an ambitious trade deal if it includes provisions on level playing field, designed to ensure the U.K. can't undercut the bloc, and a deal on fisheries. “That should be crystal clear to the U.K.,” Barnier said Friday.

Across the Channel, the U.K. said it’s only able to make process on fisheries “on the basis of the reality that the U.K. will have the right to control access to its waters at the end of this year,” according to a Downing Street spokesperson. London wants a separate fisheries agreement in line with the EU’s current fisheries deal with Norway and will wait until it is clear that the EU is moving from the status quo on fisheries to put forward a legal text on this topic.

The U.K. also disagrees with the EU’s position on level playing field and argues that no other free-trade agreement goes that far. A Downing Street spokesperson also said that “the detail of the EU’s offer on goods trade falls well short of recent precedent in FTAs it has agreed with other sovereign countries.”

What's next?

There are still two negotiating rounds before the two sides must decide by the end of June whether enough progress has been made or if an extension to the transition period is required. The U.K. stressed again this week that it won't request an extension.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told Downing Street's daily press conference Friday there was “very good progress in some areas.”

"We think that the best way of providing certainty to all businesses out there is to know that we are not going to keep chopping and changing, that the Brexit transition will end at the end of the year," Shapps said.

Ruparel said Barnier has set what seems quite a high bar for the level of progress that both sides need to make by June.

“Often when the EU says these things, what they really mean by progress is the U.K. accepting the EU’s position,” he said. “We are obviously very short of time now, and that is slightly different to the first phase. And if the EU makes a decision in June that there isn’t going to be a deal or a deal doesn’t look possible then I think we will see both sides focusing more on no-deal preparations. That will then make a deal even less likely.”

Even with the limited timeframe — Barnier stressed that “the clock is ticking” — the EU says it’s still possible to strike a complete agreement “if there would come more political dynamism into proposals aimed at building compromises.”

"Whether I think the extension of Brexit negotiations and the deadlines there are until the end of the year is good or not is irrelevant ..." — Heiko Maas

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said the coronavirus crisis would not make Brexit negotiations easier, but added Berlin would use its EU presidency in the second half of the year to ensure there is a "good result" for both the EU and Britain.

"Whether I think the extension of Brexit negotiations and the deadlines there are until the end of the year is good or not is irrelevant — the British government rejects that and made that clear again last week. It certainly won't be easier given the coronavirus crisis," he told a news conference earlier Friday.

And while it may be enshrined in U.K. law not to extend the transition period, those with some years of Brexit experience know that in these negotiations, nothing should be excluded.

Either way, we’re not at the closing credits just yet.