This is the second part of a series that would cover the major players in the Syria war, trying to step back from the daily news and think about broader strategy and objectives. Disclaimer: I am not an expert on this topic. Anything below is my attempt to understand what would make sense based on events so far. I’d love to consider other options I haven’t thought about in the comments!

Having considered Syria in a previous post, this one will focus on the objectives of Israel, its southwestern neighbor, in the war in Syria. Many observers feel strongly about Israel, itself a deeply polarizing country. Although it is not openly involved in the Syrian war, Israel has strong interests in its outcome. As the war drags on, these interests draw Israeli attention towards Syria.

Israeli government officials (Prime Minister Netanyahu is in the center) and military officers observe Syria across the border (source).

Stepping back for a moment, Israel has several advantages. It is a regional power, and possesses a powerful economy and army. It is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons (although it remains vague on the topic), and is the largest recipient of American military aid in the world over the recent decades (currently over $3 billion/year). Israel leads the region in fields such as education, innovation, and infrastructure, allowing it to create business and political ties with the Western world. Its strong connection to the US, which is its closest and most important ally, is hugely important for geopolitics in the Middle East.

On the other hand, Israel is also disadvantaged. As a Jewish state, it has no obvious alliances in an unfriendly and unstable Muslim-majority region. Its international image has been sullied for decades and it is seen by many in a strong negative light. Israel’s domestic and foreign policies, especially with regard to the Palestinians, have made it unpopular among growing parts of the world.

Religion in the Middle East. Some errors but the general picture is correct. (Source)

Israel has two main objectives which determine its regional foreign policy:

First, maintaining Israel’s security. Although the term “security” can be (and has been) used to mean almost anything, in this context I focus on the economic security which is key to understand Israel’s position. Israel’s casualties in all its wars since over the past 70 years — somewhere between 10,000 and 20,000 — are miniscule compared to its neighbors. Terror attacks receive much international attention in the West but ultimately have minor effects in absolute numbers.

However, Israel’s modern economy is exceedingly vulnerable to the collateral damage any large-scale confrontation would cause. Even brief closures of Israel’s single international airport have been seen as major threats (on the Israeli side) and achievements (on its enemies’ side). If it becomes more risky to do business in Israel’s center, international investment might pull back, possibly causing an economic collapse.

Second, maintaining Israel’s dominant position in the region. Israel has achieved this despite its relative lack of natural resources and its small size. Israel would prefer to keep its hegemony under the current geopolitical status quo. The appearance of a state competitor — whether in politics, economy, or military — would be unwelcome and blunt Israel’s currently edge. Israel’s nuclear weapons have traditionally allowed it more freedom of operation in the region, including against what it perceived as attempts by other countries to join the nuclear race.