Liberal minority seen

TORONTO JUNE 18th, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1683 Canadian voters, 4-in-10 will vote Liberal if a federal election were held today (39%), compared to 3-in-10 who will vote Conservative (31%), and this represents a very slight widening in the Liberal lead since we last polled (May 22, Liberal - 36%, Conservative - 30%). Just fewer than one fifth will vote NDP (19%) and this represents a decline since last month (23%). Few will vote Green (5%) or Bloc Quebecois (4%) or for other parties (1%).

The Liberal vote is especially characteristic of the wealthiest (44%), in Atlantic Canada (52%) and Ontario (45%) but not in Alberta (26%), but among the best educated (post grad, a proxy for income - 47%), non-Christians (48%) and mothers with kids (44%).

The Conservative vote is common to the oldest (41%), males (35%), mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 37%), in the prairies (40%), Alberta (56%) and BC (37%), among college grads (35%), among Protestants (48%) and Evangelical Christians (54%), but not among the non-religious (20%) or non-Christians (23%), nor among mothers (24%).

The NDP vote is strongest among the less wealthy ($20K to $40K - 25%), the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 28%), in Quebec (26%) and among the non-religious (25%).

The Liberal vote is the "stickiest" in that more Liberals from 2011 (83%) will vote Liberal again this time than will Conservatives (74%) or, especially, New Democrats (59%). In fact, close to 3-in-10 past NDP voters will vote Liberal this time around (28%).





Liberal minority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in a 308 seat House of Commons, the Liberals would increase their seat count from 110 last month to a minority of 142 this month. The Conservatives would take 109 seats, stable from 111 last month, while the NDP's haul would decline from 75 seats to 53. The Bloc would take 3 seats (well down from 11 last month) and Elizabeth May would keep her seat for the Green Party.





Trudeau, Harper favourables steady; Mulcair's slip

Justin Trudeau has the approval of more than 4-in-10 Canadians (43%), stable since last month (43%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +5. Stephen Harper has the approval of a third (34%), steady from last month (33%), but his net is a very negative -27. Tom Mulcair has seen his approval drop from more than 4-in-10 last month (43%) to more than a third now (38%), and his net is +4, well down from +14 last month.





Trudeau and Harper continue to be tied as best PM

Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper are each thought to make the best Prime Minister by just more than a quarter (27% and 28%, respectively), and this is essentially the same as last month (Trudeau - 28%, Harper - 26%). Tom Mulcair is seen to fit this role by about one eighth (16%), also similar to last month (17%). few choose Elizabeth May (8%), and one fifth don't have an opinion (21%).





“Justin Trudeau suffered a rare slip in his appeal last month when he made some controversial comments about candidates and their beliefs around abortion rights. It appears his public has forgiven him this controversy, and he has regained most of the ground he and his party might have briefly lost," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.