Polls can be confusing – but US data editor Mona Chalabi advises if you choose to pay attention, focus on when it was conducted, not when it was published

Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton now has an 11-percentage-point lead over her Republican opponent Donald Trump, according to a poll released by PRRI and the Atlantic on Tuesday. If that weren’t already reason enough for Trump supporters to worry, a poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal released on Monday put Clinton’s lead at 14 percentage points. But why the difference in numbers?

If you want to follow polls in the 28 remaining days before the US votes, I strongly recommend you ignore the date that the poll was published – and focus instead on the dates that the poll was conducted. That PRRI/Atlantic poll was based on landline and cellphone interviews that took place on 5-9 October while the data for the NBC/WSJ poll was gathered on 8-9 October.

Those dates are potentially significant given that on 8 October, a 2005 recording was released of Trump saying that, thanks to his fame, he was able to grab women “by the pussy”.

It’s highly likely that a larger proportion of respondents were interviewed after the Trump recording was made public in the NBC/WSJ poll compared with the PRRI/Atlantic poll. That could mean a 14-percentage-point lead is a more accurate indication of Clinton’s current position in the race.

But the crucial question is whether Clinton’s lead is temporary or permanent. We’ll need to keep an eye on numbers in the days ahead to understand that.

In the meantime, though, it’s worth looking beyond the horserace numbers that appear at the top of the survey and digging a little further. In the PRRI/Atlantic poll, I was curious about a question that provided the statement: “These days society seems to punish men just for acting like men” – 36% of respondents agreed. Another 41% agreed with the statement: “Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine.” Those attitudes could provide useful information for understanding why voters might support their respective candidates.