The "NVIDIA is secretly working on an x86 chip" rumor that Charlie at the Inquirer has been flogging since at least 2006 has just been given a major boost, and by none other than NVIDIA itself.

A bit-tech.net reporter was in the audience at a recent Morgan Stanley Technology Conference, when NVIDIA VP Mike Hara seemed to indicate that the company is considering developing a x86 CPU for the mobile space sometime in the next two years.

I've always been a major doubter of the NVIDIA-produced x86 rumors, though I know at least one other tech reporter besides Charlie who's sold on the story. But Hara's remarks make it fairly clear that the company is indeed headed in this direction.

Based on what Hara said, it seems that NVIDIA would be looking to do a Tegra-like SoC design, but one that pairs an x86 core with an NVIDIA GPU (as opposed to Tegra's ARM + GPU pairing).

Why would NVIDIA do this? Because, as a recent and widely linked Jon Peddie report correctly points out, the integrated graphics processor (IGP) will eventually go away, as integrated GPUs move off of the chipset and onto the processor die. IGPs are a huge and very successful part of NVIDIA's volume business, and the company can't afford to see that segment left solely to Intel at a future date when all mobile x86 processors come with an on-board GPU.

Can NVIDIA compete?

Now that Intel has announced that it will be using TSMC as a fab source for some future Atom designs, the idea of an NVIDIA x86 SoC doesn't seem as bad as it previously did. NVIDIA is a TSMC customer, so their hypothetical SoC would have process parity with an Intel-made Atom SoC. And given the former company's embedded GPU prowess, and the latter's lack thereof, it's not unreasonable to imagine that the NVIDIA SoC could outperform the Intel SoC for most of the media-centric applications that both parts would likely find use in.

I confess that I don't at all understand the x86 licensing situation, so I don't feel that I can weigh in on the legality of the hypothetical NVIDIA part. But if Intel wants to win customers in the smartphone space eventually, it might be best for them to just leave NVIDIA alone to make whatever it likes. I suggest this because the fact that SoC x86 processors are sole-source now—meaning that you only get them from Intel, and even when they come from TSMC Intel will still exercise a ton of control—is a strike against them vs. ARM.

If a smartphone maker like Nokia goes with ARM, then it can choose from a variety of suppliers like TI or Qualcomm. This competition among sources is healthy and gets the handset maker a lower price; it also guarantees a supply of ARM chips, because if one supplier goes under you can just move on to the next. Intel can't offer this with x86, but NVIDIA as a credible second source of x86 mobile parts might be enough to get the world's most successful ISA into the phone market.