Disney’s first major live-action remake of 2019 is hitting theaters this weekend, though perhaps without quite as much fanfare as the studio had been expecting. The Tim Burton epic carries a hefty $170 million production budget, and is currently expected to pull in around $50 million this weekend – though there’s a chance that last weekend’s holdover Us may prove more trouble than expected.

Heading into the weekend, Dumbo doesn’t seem to have a whole lot going for it outside of name recognition; buzz hasn’t caught on the way it has for Aladdin or The Lion King (even though much of the former was negative reactions to the Genie’s appearance, at least people were talking) and reviews have been far from impressive, currently hovering at around 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. The biggest barrier the film has is its enormous and baffling $170 million budget; presumably, after the success of 2010’s Alice in Wonderland, Disney felt comfortable handing Burton a blank check in an attempt to recreate that films success, though the odds of that seem far from likely. Even a $50 million start would be merely lackluster compared to such a massive budget.

Elsewhere, we have a slew of fairly niche wide releases all going into around 1,000 locations; first up is Pure Flix’s pro-life drama Unplanned, which looks as though it may create a bit of an upset if its controversy turns out to work in its favor. Meanwhile, The Beach Bum and Hotel Mumbai are both headscratchers in terms of why the studios have decided to go so wide so fast. Beach Bum is the first out-of-the-gate wide release for director Harmony Korine, whose last film Spring Breakers rode a wave of hype to a nationwide expansion in its second weekend, even if it left the vast majority of its general audience confused and disappointed. Despite the lack of buzz and the weak reviews, Neon has still decided to go all-in with a 1,015 theater count for opening weekend. Don’t be at all surprised if it fails to top a $2K average for the weekend.

Finally, we come to the expansion of last weekends Hotel Mumbai, which is making its way into 924 locations. The best comparison here would be last years Beirut, which opened to around $2.1 million over its five day start after launching on a Wednesday. Anything above that for the weekend would be fine.

Predictions

Dumbo – $45 million Us – $37.5 million Captain Marvel – $19 million Five Feet Apart – $6 million Unplanned – $5 million

The Beach Bum – $2.3 million

Hotel Mumbai – $2 million