However, NIESR said that such a move would cast doubts over Scotland's membership of the EU, and the outlook for the economy. "Entry into the EU would be out of the UK's hands, even if it supported Scotland's case," said Mr Armstrong and Ms Ebell. "This would raise doubts about the outlook for exports, particularly for financial services. Whether the citizens of Scotland would accept this policy simply to hold onto sterling would become a source of speculation with a low level of reserves as defence. We would expect the currency arrangement to fail and Scotland would be forced to introduce its own new currency within one year."