Welcome to COVID-19 daily briefing which is your place to discover daily news and numbers, backed by links to reputable and official sources.

Today’s highlights

New US guidelines to allow more people to be tested, 1M tests available by end of the week.

Lot of empty beds in Wuhan and first makeshift hospital closed as patients are discharged.

Italy closes all schools and universities country wide.

Mythbusters episode: Is being cautious enough to avoid being infected?

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation sponsors testing of 15,000 known molecules in search of SARS-CoV-2 inhibitor.

Chinese scientists discover two major types of the virus and claim that the more aggressive type stopped being prevailing in January.

Worldwide

2,223 new cases and 86 deaths (38 in China and 48 outside China) in the last 24 hours reported by WHO, as compared to 1,922 and 69 the day before. More numbers from WHO in the “Numbers” section at the bottom.

Four new counties reported their first cases: Argentina, Chile, Poland and Ukraine.

Shortage of personal protective equipment endangering health workers worldwide. WHO calls to increase manufacturing by 40 percent.

United States

First person died in California, infected most likely on a cruise ship. Los Angeles declares state of emergency.

The US has now 153 cases and 11 deaths (10 in Washington state, 1 in California).

New guidelines will allow anyone to be tested, even if they show only mild symptoms and don’t have travel history to affected areas. One million tests should be available by end of the week. Vice President Mike Pence announced:

“Several governors said to me that there was an impression that the test would not be administered to people who were only mildly symptomatic. We are issuing new guidance - effective immediately - from the CDC that will make it clear that any clinician on health authority can administer the test.

1,000 New Yorkers were asked to self-quarantine after a new local cluster has been discovered.

‘If We Don't Work, We Don't Get Paid.' How the Coronavirus Is Exposing Inequality Among America's Workers.

Just 47 percent of the bottom quarter of American wage-earners have access to paid sick days, compared to 90 percent of the top quarter. Low-wage workers without paid sick leave are often reluctant to skip work, even if they are ill, since they need the money; Four in ten workers said they could have difficulty covering a $400 emergency expense.

Italy

Italy closes all schools and universities in the entire country. All major sporting events, including Serie A football, will be played behind closed doors. Further measures are also being considered, like closing cinemas, theatres and suspension of public events. Cinemas and theatres are already closed in the worst hit provinces (Lombardy). Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, said:

“We are focused on taking all measures for direct containment or delaying the spread of the virus. The health system risks going into overload, and we will have a problem with intensive care if an exponential crisis continues.”

Washington Posts describes Italy’s health-care system stretched to its limits and reports significant number of doctors turning into patients. Giovanni Rezza, director of the infectious-disease department at the Italian National Institute of Health, says:

“The lesson is that you have to intervene very, very fast and in a very tough manner. Otherwise, you’ll have a high burden of disease that will jeopardize the health system. We cannot compromise.”

Rest of Europe

German Health Minister calls coronavirus outbreak a “global pandemic”. He also said that the government is updating its medical guidelines to focus efforts on the outbreak. Non-urgent surgeries might be postponed if the situation worsens.

“What's clear is that we have not yet reached the peak of the outbreak.”

France: Louvre museum reopens after few days being closed because staff refused to work in fear of coronavirus.

Czech Republic: Testing scandal in Prague [article in Czech]. A woman returned from ski trip to Italy and started having symptoms. A doctor refused to test her, so she went to a private lab to be tested and was confirmed to have the virus. It’s a mystery how she managed to be tested, because private labs are banned by Czech government from performing COVID-19 tests. It looks like a catch-22 situation, where public healthcare staff don’t have clear procedures (or have procedures designed to limit testing), but private facilities are forbidden to test.

UK temporarily changes rules for paid sick days. Statutory sick pay will now be available since the first day of sick instead of fourth day.

London’s mayor’s priority seems to be business as usual, even at the cost of Londoner’s health. He said that there is no risk in using the Tube, buses or other form of public transport as well as in attending concerts with 5,000 to 20,000 people. This of course contradicts numerous studies (and a common sense). When challenged, he said that it’s indeed possible to catch the virus if you’re in close proximity to someone who has it. United Kingdom currently has 87 cases.

Sweden extends criteria for people to be tested and will now test for COVID-19 people with severe pneumonia [Swedish] regardless of their contact history.

Israel restricts public events to maximum 5,000 people.

Asia

China: Wuhan’s hospitals have now a lot of empty beds and first makeshift hospital has been closed as more and more patients are discharged.

140 new cases and 38 deaths in China reported by WHO in the last 24 hours.

India: 14 Italian tourists who were quarantined in New Delhi tested positive. India has now 28 confirmed cases.

Is being cautious enough to avoid being infected?

This old Mythbusters episode tests if people who were warned and are trying to avoid being infected will be much safer during a 30-minute social meeting than people who have no clue, if one of attendees is spreading germs. Scroll to the bottom for a tl;dr if you don’t want to watch the 6-minute video.

Science

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation purchased samples of 15,000 known anti-viral substances and sent them to a Belgian biosafety lab which is one of few facilities in the world able to test thousands of molecules at high speed for their ability to inhibit the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Prof Johan Neyts, who will carry out the analysis, doesn’t expect to find a miracle cure, but any sign of inhibition of the Covid-19 disease would be considered a significant breakthrough:

“A bit is also good. Or even better: a few substances that inhibit a little, and which we can then combine to hopefully cure seriously-ill patients.”

New study by Chinese scientists claims there are two separate types - named L and S - of the novel coronavirus, one more aggressive than the other. They found a pattern suggesting that L has a higher transmission rate than the S type. The more aggressive L type was more prevalent during the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, but its frequency decreased after early January 2020. They see urgent need for further analysis based on a bigger sample, as their study and conclusions are only preliminary. Full study here.

“Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure.”

Harvard epidemiologist, Marc Lipstich, who previously expected 40-70% world population to be infected, changed his prediction based on recent data:

Peng Zhiyong, director of the intensive care unit of the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University is worried about long-term health effects in patients who recovered.

“The influence of COVID-19 on the human body is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems. I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients' lungs from irreversible fibrosis.”

Economic Impact

Flybe, Britain's biggest domestic airline, has warned the government that it could collapse within days after a slump in bookings triggered by the coronavirus.

WHO Numbers, 04 March, 10am CET / 4am EST

Worldwide: 2,223 new cases in the last 24 hours, (1,922 yesterday), 93,090 total cases, 86 new deaths.

United States: 44 new cases (2 yesterday), 108 total, 4 new deaths (2 yesterday).

Asia:

Iran: 835 new cases (523 yesterday), 2,336 total, 11 new deaths (12 yesterday) [1].

South Korea: 516 new cases (600 yesterday), 5,328 total, 4 new deaths (6 yesterday).

Japan: 16 new cases (14 yesterday), 284 total, no new deaths (same as yesterday).

Malaysia: 21 new cases (5 yesterday), 50 total, no deaths yet.

[1] Iran numbers are widely considered unreliable due to a large scale outbreak causing chaos and non-transparent authorities.

Europe:

Italy: 466 new cases (347 yesterday), 2,502 total, 28 new deaths (17 yesterday).

France: 21 new cases (91 yesterday), 212 total, 1 new death (1 yesterday).

Germany: 39 new cases (28 yesterday). 196 total, no deaths yet.

Spain: 37 new cases (69 yesterday), 151 total, no deaths yet reported by WHO (one reported by authorities).

Mythbusters episode tl;dr

Three clueless people would be infected. Out of three warned and cautious people, two would also be infected and had traces all over their hands, one of them also on his face. The only person who was clean admitted that she actually is a germaphobe. Bottom line: if you aren’t a natural born germaphobe, it will probably be very hard for you to try to act like one. Don’t underestimate your habits and spontaneous behaviour and don’t overestimate your ability to keep yourself not contaminated.

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