Good evening,

It's T-minus five days until election night, and we have another jam-packed edition of the 506er to get you up to speed on all things election.

Today, CBC poll analyst Eric Grénier explains why the Liberals should be worried even if they capture the most votes.

Plus, the CBC's Julia Wright dissects one of the more diverse and hotly contested ridings, and provincial affairs reporter Jacques Poitras jumps in front of the camera to explain the difference between bilingualism and duality.

Here's what we're talking about on Wednesday, Day 28:

Top headlines

NDP Leader Jennifer McKenzie sat down with the CBC to discuss her campaign and party platform. (Photo: CBC)

NDP promises affordable child care, ending privatization in health care It's been more than a decade since a NDP MLA sat in the New Brunswick Legislature, and NDP Leader Jennifer McKenzie hopes to break that streak by pulling the party back to its roots and emphasizing affordable health care, reviewing labour laws and investing in home care. However, the polls suggest that message isn't resonating with voters.



PC supporters sign an anti-carbon-tax petition on the side of Higgs's campaign bus Tuesday in Oromocto. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

Progressive Conservative carbon tax impact exaggerate, says expert A climate and energy economist says the Tories' calculation estimating the impact of a carbon tax on New Brunswick families — $1,200-per-year — is exaggerated. In fact, Jennifer Winter of the University of Calgary says that's double her own calculation.



The political parties are at odds over the new provincial policy on school nutrition. (Atlantic Canada Organic Vending/Facebook)

Why to keep an eye on the school nutrition policy in an election Who would have guessed that chocolate milk would become an election issue but have nothing to do with supply management? The province's new school nutrition policy has ruffled feathers in New Brunswick homes as well as at the political level. One party said the Liberal policy has gone too far, another said it hasn't gone far enough and now a Liberal cabinet minister says they might change their own policy.



Greg McConaghy, president of CUPE Local 4848, says he's following the Liberal leader's campaign bus to events around the province to highlight workplace issues faced by paramedics. (Pierre Fournier/CBC News)

Paramedics shadow Liberal leader to protest staff shortages across the province Frustrated with inaction on the part of government, the union representing Ambulance New Brunswick paramedics is bringing members' concerns to Brian Gallant. The union president has been following the Liberal leader in attempt to make sure his voice is heard.



Catch up on all the election news on Day 28 of the campaign. (CBC)

Election Day 28: Announcements focus on post-secondary students, fishermen and workers As the 2018 election campaign nears an end, the leaders of the Liberal, Progressive Conservative and New Democrat parties all made platform announcements Wednesday.



Talking point

Bilingualism and duality have become election issues -— but some politicians and voters are having trouble telling them apart. The CBC's Jacques Poitras breaks down the differences.

Bilingualism and duality have become election issues - but some politicians voters are having trouble telling them apart. The CBC's Jacques Poitras breaks down the differences. 2:12

The pulse

The CBC's Eric Grénier says winning the most votes might not be enough for the Liberals to stay in power.

New Brunswick Liberal Leader Brian Gallant speaks at a campaign stop in Fredericton on Wednesday, Sept. 5, 2018. (James West/Canadian Press) Grénier's the Liberals have grappled with winning the popular vote, but not forming a majority government. That's because the party often sweeps francophone ridings by large margins, while Conservatives squeak by in anglophone constituencies, taking more seats overall. fascinating read dives into how the Liberals have grappled with winning the popular vote, but not forming a majority government. That's because the party often sweeps francophone ridings by large margins, while Conservatives squeak by in anglophone constituencies, taking more seats overall.

According to the New Brunswick Votes 2018 Poll Tracker, which Grénier manages, the Liberals still have an 82.1 per cent probability of winning a majority.

A projection of seat counts based on publicly available polling results on Sept. 14. (CBC News)

Riding profile: Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton

Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton is one of the newer provincial ridings after it was established in the 2013 electoral boundary redistribution. It was renamed last year after the province felt Oromocto-Lincoln wasn't representative of the constituents.

The district is now a sprawling riding that takes in rural communities, a First Nation, a military base and a good chunk of the provincial capital.

The Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton riding map.

Former PC MLA Jody Carr emerged triumphant in 2014 — the riding's first election — with 42 per cent of the vote. Carr had been previously elected four times in the former ridings of Oromocto and Oromocto-Gagetown. Carr has since left politics, however, opening the door for a fresh face — and maybe fresh party — to take over.

As the CBC's Julia Wright reports, Carr is throwing his support behind PC candidate Mary Wilson, but the realtor faces a stiff challenge from Liberal candidate John Fife, a retired army colonel — something that might resonate with voters in a riding with strong ties to the military.

Other candidates include: Tom McLean for the Green Party, Craig Rector for the People's Alliance and Justin Young for the NDP.

Where the leaders are headed tomorrow

Kris Austin: Not provided before publication

David Coon: Attending United Way campaign kickoff in Fredericton; leaders' debate

Brian Gallant: Announcement in Keswick Ridge; leaders' debate

Blaine Higgs: Announcement in Fredericton; leaders' debate

Jennifer McKenzie: Announcement in Saint John, campaigning in Saint John

Subscribe to our election newsletter

Get the latest election updates delivered right to your inbox with The 506er. Subscribe here.

More Coverage

For complete coverage | Links to all New Brunswick Votes 2018 stories

New Brunswick Poll Tracker | Get the latest projections here

Vote Compass | See how your views compare with the parties' platforms

Help CBC track political ads on Facebook | Learn how here