Wild Card weekend certainly lived up to it’s name last weekend. 3 out of 4 games were decided by less than one possession, and 3 out of 4 underdogs came out on top. The divisional round features more great match-ups that are sure to be just as exciting. Given this, I decided to simulate each divisional game 1000 times.

For the simulations, I used strength of schedule adjusted points scored and allowed per game for each team. Then, I averaged the expected performance of one team’s offense and the other team’s defense to arrive at a projected score for each team. Using a 10% home field advantage, I simulated each match-up 1000 times. Here are the results:

Colts @ Chiefs (-5) T: 57

Game:

Colts Chiefs Average Score 25.2 29.9 Chance of Winning 36.0% 64.0% Chance of Covering 48.6% 51.4%

Totals:

Average Total 55.2 Chance of Over 44.8% Chance of Under 55.2%

Value Picks:

Total Under 57

Colts ML +190

Cowboys @ Rams (-7) T: 49.5

Game:

Cowboys Rams Average Score 21.4 27.9 Chance of Winning 30.2% 69.8% Chance of Covering 51.9% 48.1%

Totals:

Average Total 49.4 Chance of Over 51.9% Chance of Under 48.1%

Value Picks:

None

Chargers @ Patriots (-4) T: 47.5

Game:

Chargers Patriots Average Score 22.7 24.8 Chance of Winning 43.2% 56.8% Chance of Covering 57.2% 43.2%

Totals:

Average Total 47.4 Chance of Over 52.2% Chance of Under 47.8%

Value Picks:

LAC +4

LAC ML +170

Eagles @ Saints (-8) T: 51.5

Game:

Eagles Saints Average Score 21.4 27.3 Chance of Winning 33.0% 67.0% Chance of Covering 56.0% 44.0%

Totals:

Average Total 48.7 Chance of Over 42.3% Chance of Under 57.7%

Value Picks:

Eagles +8

Total Under 51.5

Eagles ML +315

Summary:

These simulations show just how wide open these playoffs are. It found no value in favorites (both ML and Spread), and found value in 3 out of the 4 underdogs in some way. Additionally, it found the two highest O/U to be too high, picking the under in each of them. All told, there are 7 value picks for this weekend:

IND@KC u57

IND ML +190

LAC +4

LAC ML +170

PHI@NO u51.5

PHI +8

PHI ML +315