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Two years ago, on Dec. 19, Alison Redford told me a “bitumen bubble” would cost the Alberta treasury $6 billion.

And now, again on Dec. 19, Premier Jim Prentice says low oil prices will bring a $6.2-billion revenue shortfall in 2015-16.

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He goes on to say there could be a $5-billion loss the following year, and $5-billion more the year after that.

Yes, he’s talking about $16.2 billion in deficits out to 2018, unless the government both cuts spending and increases revenue.

This is truly dire, the premier adds in ayear-end interview, unlike any oil crisis since the 1970s.

“Alberta simply can’t run a $6-billion deficit,” he says. There will be tough austerity as well as consideration of revenue increases — meaning higher taxes.

The trouble is, such scare stories have proved false in the past. Even the numbers are similar.

That may explain why Prentice is staking his credibility on the reality of his claims. He has to win over skeptics who remember how the bitumen bubble proved to be just what you’d expect — hot air.