TORONTO — With the divisional crossover taken into account, the Edmonton Eskimos’ chances of making it to the 104th Grey Cup spiked this week.

Last week, the Esks held a 0.21% chance of making it all the way to the championship contest, but this week it has increased to 8.05%.

According to CFL Simulation, the Esks have a better shot at making it to the Grey Cup than BC, who are second in the West and hold a six point lead over Edmonton. The simulator is assuming that the Eskimos will have an easier path than the Lions if they crossover into the East Division. The Leos, however, will have to defeat both Winnipeg and Calgary to make it to the final (they currently hold a 5.31% chance of doing so).

The most probable Grey Cup match-up still remains the Hamilton Tiger-Cats facing the Calgary Stampeders at 60.55%. The Stampeders have clinched a playoff spot after their Week 13 win (their ninth in a row) and the Ticats have shot into the top spot in the East with their victory over the Montreal Alouettes.

The Ottawa REDBLACKS’ chances of making their second straight Grey Cup appearance increased this week from 13.95% to 16.02%.

Saskatchewan’s chances of appearing in the final tilt also jumped from less than one in 10,000 to 0.03% after Darian Durant ran in the winning touchdown in overtime to give his team their second win of the 2016 season.

Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

East Division Team Projection Hamilton Tiger-Cats 79.72% Ottawa REDBLACKS 18.26% Toronto Argonauts 1.99% Montreal Alouettes 0.03%

West Division Team Projection Calgary Stampeders 98.00% BC Lions 1.27% Winnipeg Blue Bombers 0.73% Edmonton Eskimos Less than 1 in 10,000 Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.00% (Eliminated from first place consideration)

Probabilities of Appearing in the 104th Grey Cup Team Projection Calgary Stampeders 86.59% Hamilton Tiger-Cats 70.16% Ottawa REDBLACKS 16.02% Winnipeg Blue Bombers 8.40% Edmonton Eskimos 8.05% BC Lions 5.31% Toronto Argonauts 4.67% Montreal Alouettes 0.77% Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.03%

Probabilities of Winning the 104th Grey Cup Team Projection Calgary Stampeders 76.13% Hamilton Tiger-Cats 11.36% Winnipeg Blue Bombers 6.15% BC Lions 3.53% Ottawa REDBLACKS 1.20% Edmonton Eskimos 1.14% Toronto Argonauts 0.48% Montreal Alouettes 0.01% Saskatchewan Roughriders Less than 1 in 10,000

Most Likely 104th Grey Cup Matchups (Assuming no crossover) Team Projection Hamilton-Calgary 60.55% Ottawa-Calgary 14.12% Hamilton-Winnipeg 5.85% Toronto-Calgary 3.90% Hamilton-BC 3.73%

The model considers the following:

• Each team’s current win-loss record.

• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).

• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.

• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).

• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.