WASHINGTON, DC—“Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory has been won,” President Donald Trump said Sunday — continuing his gradual U-turn from earlier attempts to declare victory over COVID-19.

Trump has stopped talking about reopening the country by Easter and extended social distancing until the end of April; he’s turned from predicting minimal casualties to saying anything fewer than 200,000 deaths would be a tremendous success.

They are rare climbdowns for a president resistant to correction. But the COVID-19 crisis is exposing leaders’ false promises and blustering optimism by the day, while exposing their weaknesses and strengths.

And for America that is happening with lightning speed. By Tuesday, the death toll in the country had tripled since Thursday to more than 3,000, now surpassing the number killed in the 9/11 attacks.

While there is admiration for the leadership of U.S. governors like New York’s Andrew Cuomo and Maryland’s Larry Hogan, and Canadian leaders Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford, Trump’s daily press briefings remain points of conflict and confusion. He continues to find fault in others and deflect blame from himself.

Leaders are often defined by their response to a crisis. Trump’s moment in this crisis is his mid-March insistence that: “I take no responsibility at all.”

It is at odds with what experts say is the most important thing in a crisis: be accountable.

After accountability, historians looking at great world leaders and business management consultants advise empathy.

“Deal with the human tragedy as the first priority,” Gemma D’Auria and Aaron De Smet, two senior partners at corporate management consultants McKinsey & Company wrote recently. Franklin Delano Roosevelt dictated his Depression-era radio addresses while “trying to visualize the individuals he was seeking to help: a mason at work on a new building, a girl behind a counter, a man repairing an automobile, a farmer in his field,” Arthur Schlesinger Jr. once wrote.

Empathy is not a quality Trump is known for and that has been on full display during this crisis.

Trudeau’s caring for his children while in isolation as his wife recovered from COVID-19 created a sense of shared experience. Cuomo has been a father figure for a suffering New York family.

Ford jumped in his truck to deliver a donated shipment of ventilator masks. “A leader puts himself into the action and brings the people and resources to bear,” author John Baldoni wrote in the Harvard Business Review almost a decade ago.

Baldoni and the McKinsey consultants also say leadership means taking a moment to figure out the situation before acting (“leaders should not resort to using their intuition alone,” D’Auria and De Smet write). Yet, Trump’s approach has been to improvise in front of the entire world, speculating about untested medicines and sometimes ignoring medical expertise.

Other common pieces of crisis leadership advice common in expert writing on the subject— the value of preparation, early recognition and accountability, the setting aside of partisan fights and ability to rally a team of rivals — show qualities the U.S. president has lacked.

But the most consistent piece of advice demonstrates Trump’s most obvious failing thus far: levelling with people about the scope of the challenge.

Presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin recently wrote in the New York Times that Roosevelt followed his famous “Nothing to fear but fear itself” pronouncement with an acknowledgment of hard times that lay ahead, saying “only a foolish optimist can deny the dark realities of the moment.”

Celebrated moments of leadership often show plenty of resolve but few rosy projections. Winston Churchill famously offered his public nothing but “blood, toil, tears and sweat.” During the Cuban missile crisis, John F. Kennedy told Americans, “Many months of sacrifice and self-discipline lie ahead.”

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Cuomo’s celebrated reassurances have not been sugar-coated. On Tuesday he said he expected that the peak of the virus in New York was still weeks away and he anticipated “many thousands” of deaths ahead. Early on, the Republican governor of Ohio warned people, when there were only two confirmed cases of community spread there, to assume 100,000 people in the state had the virus.

But Trump has spent weeks minimizing potential costs. Only now, as it becomes too obvious to ignore, has he begun acknowledging the severity of what the U.S. faces. When asked why it took so long on Monday, Trump said he hadn’t wanted to panic the nation, “Those statements I made — I want to keep the country calm.”

Much expert advice on crisis management says people are calmed when leaders display understanding and demonstrate they have planned to deal with the worst. A good summary of that advice might sound something like, “Nothing could be worse than declaring victory before victory has been won.” The president belatedly offered some good advice this week. His country may be reassured if he shows he’s heeding it.

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