Don’t get too excited about the current thaw in the trade war. Despite both sides appearing to talk up the prospects of a deal ahead of discussions that resumed in Washington yesterday, there has been a major development that could put any final agreement at risk.

Since talks were last held, China has signed a multi-decade oil-supply deal with Iran and will pay for the crude in yuan, bypassing the established petrodollar system. With a foreign policy aimed at maintaining the US as the global hegemon, this really won’t play well with Washington hawks. It’s a serious step forward in the new Cold War.

Under a 25-year deal that was agreed in August, China will buy oil, gas and petrochemicals from Iran at a discount of about 12pc. In return for a cheap, guaranteed oil supply, China will inject a staggering $280bn (£224bn) in Iran’s investment-starved oil industry, which has been hit hard by US sanctions and has serious infrastructure issues.

China has allocated a further $120bn to shore up the country’s transport infrastructure and will also deploy up to 5,000 Chinese security personnel in the country to protect its assets, as well as guarding shipments of oil on tankers between Iran and the Chinese mainland.