So far, the results are not encouraging even if that hasn’t been reflected in the team’s record yet. Since Niskanen has been out of the lineup, Washington has allowed 28 even-strength scoring chances per 60 minutes, 18th most in the league, with almost half of those (12) coming from the high-danger areas such as the slot and near the crease (eighth most), leading to 2.4 goals allowed per 60 minutes, the highest rate during Barry Trtoz’s tenure in Washington and more than a half-a-goal-per 60-minute difference from last season.

The Caps sit at 4-4-1 after nine games, but the truth is, if not for the heroics of superstar Alex Ovechkin it would look a lot worse. Ovechkin has 10 goals this season, tied for the league lead with Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning and four more than T.J. Ohsie, who is second on the team. After that, however, goals have been hard to come by. Nicklas Backstrom has three, Jacob Vrana and defenseman Christian Djoos are tied with two and just four other skaters have one goal, leaving Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson, Lars Eller and Dmitry Orlov among those players who have yet to post a goal this season. It could become even more difficult for Washington to score with Andre Burakovsky joining Niskanen on the injury list.

AD

AD

Burakovsky’s injury forces Trotz to break up Washington’s second-best scoring trio: Backstrom, Oshie and Burakovsky were on the ice for four goals this season, second only to the line featuring Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Jakub Vrana (six). Burakovsky was also on the ice for one more goal while skating with Backstrom and Tom Wilson.

Ovechkin’s production has also limited the effects we normally see from a lack of shot volume. The Capitals are putting 40 unblocked shot attempts on net per 60 minutes of ice time during even strength, the sixth-lowest rate in the NHL this season, per Corsica’s hockey data. That worsens to 36 per 60 after adjusting for score effects, the lowest rate since Barry Trotz’s first year behind the bench for Washington in 2014-15. Fewer shot attempts lead to fewer high-danger scoring chances, another area the Capitals find themselves lacking. Of the 29 even-strength scoring chances they have taken this season, a league-low 29 percent have come from the slot or in front of the net. As a result, the Capitals have scored three more even-strength goals (18) than expected (15) when factoring in shot location and shot type.

That’s not all. The Capitals have also been tentative to shoot the puck with the man advantage, oftentimes letting perfect be the enemy of the good. They rank 21st out of the league’s 31 teams for power-play scoring chances per 60 minutes and have seen their overall shot volume on the power play decline in Washington for a third straight season. Yet they still have scored three more goals than expected, giving the power play a 25 percent efficiency rate, seventh-best in the league, rather than its expected rate of 16 percent, which would rank 22nd.

The net result is a team that we would expect to have a goal differential of minus-8, the second-worst in the NHL behind the Detroit Red Wings (minus-9), rather than the minus-3 differential Washington has now.