The so-called Steinmeier formula is an idea voiced by then German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier in fall 2015. He said that if OSCE monitors verified that the elections in ORDLO were held without violations, then the “law on special status” giving autonomy to these areas would come into immediate effect. If the formula would be applied before the withdrawal of Russian-separatist troops and Ukraine’s control of the Russian-Ukrainian border, Ukraine would de-facto recognize the occupation authorities and their sovereignty over ORDLO.

The Steinmeier formula rejected by the previous Ukrainian government returned to the political agenda in mid-September 2019.

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On 13 September, at the 16th Annual Meeting of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) in Kyiv, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said,

“We are proposing now that elections be held simultaneously across the entire territory [of Ukraine], including the occupied areas. Let’s see whether this works exclusively in terms of time.”

On the same day, Leonid Kuchma, former Ukrainian President and Ukraine’s representative to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) at the Minsk talks said that the Normandy Four leaders were going to take an agreed decision on the Steinmeier formula, which was being discussed in Minsk at meetings of the TCG political subgroup.

Kuchma noted that there are certain points regarding the Steinmeier formula which cross the red line. One of the things Ukraine absolutely requires is the withdrawal of Russian troops and military hardware from the occupied region prior to the elections so that Ukrainian authorities could return.

What’s the Steinmeier formula and how did it emerge?

The Ukrainian local elections in 2015 were planned for October and the possibility of holding the elections in the occupied territories was negotiated by the Minsk Group and the Normandy Four since such elections are one of the cornerstones of the Minsk-2 peace deal signed in winter 2015.

Then “DNR head” Aleksandr Zakharchenko ordered to conduct voting in Russia-controlled area of Donetsk Oblast on 2 July, which he stated would have been held “in accordance with the Minsk agreements.” The poll was planned under the Ukrainian law “On temporary self-rule status of ORDLO” adopted by the Ukrainian parliament in fall 2014 following the signing of the Minsk-1. Then “LNR head” Igor Plotnitsky repeated the same order but planned the elections in the occupied part of Luhansk Oblast for 1 November.

Then-President of France François Hollande convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin to “use his influence” to postpone the elections planned in both occupied Ukrainian regions.

Following the postponement, then Foreign Minister of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier put forward his ‘formula” in fall 2015, envisaging the temporary implementation of Ukrainian legislation on autonomy for the time of local elections in ORDLO and then applying it on a permanent basis after the OSCE would publish its report confirming that the elections were held in accordance with Ukrainian law and Minsk-2.

The elections under Ukrainian laws were never held in ORDLO, and after several postponements, the occupation authorities conducted sham local elections in fall 2018. These were condemned by Ukraine, the EU, the OSCE, as well as the US and by a number of other countries.

How the implementation of the formula would affect Ukraine

Applying Steinmeier’s formula would mean holding the election under full control of the occupation forces without any Ukrainian participation or any security guarantees for the residents, especially for those who had to flee the occupied region. This may fully legalize the presence of the occupation troops which, according to the Minsk accords, should be withdrawn back to Russia. The Russia-controlled areas would return to Ukraine as they are now and all participants of the illegal armed groups would be granted amnesty under the autonomy law.

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However, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin argues that the key component of the Steinmeier formula is that elections should be held by OSCE standards, by which they cannot be conducted in the presence of foreign troops and mercenaries. Proper safety conditions are required.