Many will certainly benefit from the recovery by Italian and Spanish bonds, as well as the return of relative calm to European financial markets. But any big shift in such a huge market, especially when prices had reached levels widely considered to be extreme, offers a potential for disruption.

Much depends on how much more bund prices fall, and their yields rise.

Gianluca Salford and Aditya Chordia, analysts at J.P. Morgan in London, forecast in a note to clients this week that the yield on the 10-year bund would not rise above 2.2 percent. That would be about the same level as in December.

Some analysts even say that moderately higher yields on German bonds would be healthy. The resulting decline in the value of the bonds “is not necessarily pleasant news for German banks,” which have large holdings of their own country’s debt, said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research organization in Brussels.

But, “I’m not too worried given the levels we have which are not very high,” Mr. Véron said. “If we went to significantly higher bond yields, 3 or 4 percent, it would be an entirely different situation. But we’re not there and I’m not sure we’re going there.”

An auction of German bonds on Wednesday showed that they retain their allure.

The government sold debt maturing in two years at a yield of 0.31 percent. Shorter-term bonds almost always have lower interest rates than longer-term bonds. That was up from 0.25 percent at the previous auction on Feb. 22, but still well below the 0.51 percent that buyers bid last September.

Germany also further burnished its reputation as a fiscally prudent country on Wednesday, as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet approved a budget plan that aims to cut the government deficit to just 0.35 percent of gross domestic product in 2014, two years earlier than previously planned.

The ratio was 1 percent for 2011 — compared with 8.5 percent for Spain.

And yet, a disruptive lurch in German bond prices is still a risk. Hedge funds and asset managers, who are the most active traders, stand to make immense profits by dumping German bunds and buying longer-term bonds from so-called peripheral countries like Spain and Italy.