On February 22nd, Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder will do battle for a second time and it has all the makings for a perfect rematch: controversial scoring in the first fight, captivating personalities, chalk and cheese styles, and a ton of ‘what ifs?’. In this post, I’m going to speculate over what Fury can do to beat Wilder and poke some holes in his potential strategies.

If it’s not broke, don’t fix it

Most people who watched the first fight thought that Fury won. Plain and simple. And this wasn’t just your typical British punter who’d stayed up til 5 am on a mix of pints, cocaine and national pride. The majority of media outlets and professional fighters also had it this way, with Lennox Lewis commenting that, ‘this Wilder/Fury judging takes me back to my first fight with Holyfield. Just goes to show how hard it is for a Brit to come to America and take someone’s belt even tho that’s what we clearly saw’.

Fury outlanded Wilder in 9/12 rounds and had him swinging at air for the most of the fight. His awkward movement, non-stop feints and gigantic reach stumped the American KO artist for the first 9 rounds of the fight (that was until a flash knockdown reminded us that Wilder still possessed the power to end this fight at any point – as he so nearly did in the 12th).

So, if Fury thinks he won the first fight, all he has to do is avoid the knockdowns and he’ll come out victorious? In some ways, yes. He came into the first fight on the back of a two year coke binge where he ballooned up to 28 stone before losing it again. Fury had to lose the equivalent of a young Floyd Mayweather in weight which meant that his fitness was no where near what it should have been. Moreover, he must have had some ring rust even with two soft comeback fights (I was actually at his comeback fight against Seferi and there was more fighting in the crowd than in the ring that night).

Between the first and second fight, Fury has kept fit and managed to get two fights in the bag – including a 12 round brawl against the game Otto Wallin (we’ll come back to the HUGE cut Fury sustained later). He’s going to come into the rematch fitter, stronger and sharper. So Fury can just do the same thing and just do everything a little better? It’s really that simple… isn’t it? To assume this is to massively over look the reality of a high-level boxing contest: it fails to consider Wilder as a fighter who has the ability to adapt, as he was beginning to do in the first fight.

Did Wilder catch Fury because he Fury was starting to tire or was it because he’d started to read his feints? Ben Davidson, Fury’s former trainer, provided some recent analysis on BT which gave some really decent insights into how Wilder set up his big shot:

‘Fighters have habits and tendencies and that’s what you look for as a trainer. If you do something too often and for too long at the top level you’ll be made to pay for it… For Tyson, it’s when he touches his face and wipes his nose and I know Wilder worked on that and went to throw. Something happened at the end of the eighth round; when Tyson got hit with a right hand on the top of his head, he wiped his nose, touched his face, a bit of a reset.

Then in the twelfth there was space behind Tyson to step into to take the distance away but he didn’t do it, and I believe it was a single lapse in concentration because of the habit. It’s something to be aware of; when he’s training and he does it, add a step on it or add a reset where he moves, changes position and it takes it away.’

Fury is surely aware of his ‘tell’ but over the course of 12 rounds can he stop himself doing it? Does he have other habits the Wilder can exploit? Can he use a ‘tell’ to draw Wilder in and set up his own knockout punch? It’s 3D chess people.

Another point is to consider whether this strategy would actually suit Wilder. Wilder has got a reputation as being a windmiller with super saiyan power in his right hand, but he’s actually become somewhat of a sniper is recent fights. He stalks his opponent, patiently waiting to fire in that big right hand. Against fighters like Brezeale this chance came up in the 1st round (because he’s a big dosser) and against the skilled and savvy Ortiz it took him until the 10th/7th round (in the first and second fights, respectively). The Fury who fought the first fight was out-boxing Wilder but he wasn’t really putting it on him. He was flicking out his jab and wasn’t sitting down on his punches – this is what allowed him to be so evasive. But at the same time, Fury was never going to knockout Wilder fighting in that way and that gave Wilder a free pass for 12 rounds, something which so nearly backfired in the 12th.

The Furious One

Fury has told us, alike many a boxer, that he’s done something new for this fight. That includes wanking seven times a day, going down on his wife to ‘strengthen’ his jaw, and dipping his hands in petrol to harden them – like the bareknuckle fighter Joe Joyce. Fury has also let the fans know that he plans to meet Wilder in the centre of the ring and knock him out in the second. We can’t take this at face value, but could Fury be planning to fight more offensively? Absolutely. He’s already hired a new trainer and it looks like, from recent pictures, that he’s going to come into the fight with more muscle mass.

The primary strength of an offensive strategy would be to exploit Wilder’s weaknesses rather than playing to Fury’s own strengths. It’s true, Wilder has incredible power. It’s the most frightening one-punch stuff we’ve ever seen in boxing. But his power glosses over some sub-par fundamentals: he can cross his feet when he moves, he often drops his hands when he throws, and he can turn into a ‘wacky waving inflatable arm tube man’ when he thinks his opponent is hurt.

Wilder’s power and reach makes opponents tentative – it seems there’s a tendency to avoid exchanges with a man who could knockout a water buffalo. But an offensive strategy could work. We know this because Ortiz so so soooo nearly had him out in the first fight: Ortiz took some risks, stayed in the pocket, and caught Wilder with a short right hook (from a southpaw stance) which had him out on his feet. If the round had been 30 seconds longer Ortiz could have certainly ended it.

Another reason Fury could go for the knockout is due to the cut he sustained against Wallin. It required 47 stitches and there are serious concerns that it will not be properly healed by the time he gets into the ring with Wilder. Rumours have been flying around about Fury only completing body sparring in camp, and these rumours have been exacerbated by Fury’s choice of attire during the final press conferences – a pair of massive sunglasses.

The longer the fight goes on for the more likely it is that the cut is going to open up (it’s also got to be something that Wilder is planning to exploit as well). So, Fury can take some risks and go for a knockout or, if the cut opens up, he may have no choice but to try end the fight before the doctor does. Another reason we can’t forget is the scoring: as we’ve seen time and time again, if you leave it up to the judges, there’s always a chance of getting robbed.

How Fury can knock Wilder out isn’t a big a mystery as it seems. It’s just a game of percentages. Fury landed shots on him in the first that staggered him (like a solid straight right/left hook combination in the 12th). He also landed some decent shots earlier in the fight – but they were mostly arm punches and weren’t thrown with bad intentions. Don’t let his KO record fool you, Fury can hurt Wilder. The risk? It involves planting his feet. Wilder is very very very quick: if he has a stationary target to aim at, he can put Fury to sleep.

Mystic Mike

Fury opened up as a 4/5 favourite over Wilder, with Wilder sitting at 6/5. But the odds have swapped in the last week before settling back down to virtually 50/50. As of today, the best odds you’ll get on either is evens or perhaps 11/10 on Fury. There’s a lot of tin foil hat stuff about Fury getting knocked out in sparring or injuring his ankle, which could be true, but in reality it just shows a lot of money has been bet on Wilder in the past week – people always prefer betting on the knockout.

I am a betting man so I’ll be going with Fury UD @ roughly 9/4 (£100 gets £325 back). Why am I putting this on? Because I’ve already seen them fight. I think Wilder has one approach: wait for his opponent to make a mistake and then pounce on it. Fury lasted nearly 12 rounds before doing it last time and I don’t think he makes the same mistake again. If you’re going with Wilder, betting on a KO (getting counted out) rather than a TKO (referee waving it off/towel from a corner/doctor’s stoppage) could be clever.: after Fury’s undertaker antics from the first fight, I don’t think the referee – whoever it is – will want to wave it off early. You can get a Wilder KO @ 7/2 (£100 gets £450 back) rather than Wilder by KO/TKO/DQ, which is hovering around 5/4.