It is once again time for the blog to forecast the upcoming 2018 midterm elections. Our predictions of the past national and state elections, since 2014, has been off the charts accurate.

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Full disclosure: I am a Democrat and former Democrat elected official [Hudson County Freeholder and New Jersey State Assemblyman]. I have continually expressed my analysis and opinion that the Dems increasing shift from a progressive, liberal philosophy and policy to radical, far-left, socialist activism is continuing to destroy this once great party. The repercussions of this evolving transformation will be devastating.

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Typically, the first midterm election of an incumbent President’s term will see a loss of seats in the House and Senate for that President’s party. The media and the Dems seized on the premise that the 2018 elections would produce a “Blue Wave” and shift control of the House and Senate to the Dems. The premise was also supported by major media outlets and press which are anti-Trump and pro Democrat—they no longer try to hide their bias.

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The polling to date, with the exception of issue-oriented queries, are wrong; and are to be just as distrusted as they were during the course of the 2016 Presidential election. Even pollsters and the media can’t refrain from plying their bias into their polling forecasts. Generic polling of Congressional races is the biggest con—because some Dem districts in urban areas usually provide a sometimes 60 to 80 percent plurality in such areas, which then skews the generic national polling numbers. This flawed polling dynamic produces worthless data.

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House seats have a different flavor than Senate races. In Congressional races the likability of the candidate, local issues particular to a district, and incumbency weigh in heavily. The GOP was dealt a tremendous blow when a large swarth of its incumbent members decided not to seek reelection, taking incumbency out of play in those districts. In addition, in middle America, Democrats nominated more sane moderate candidates, such as Conor Lamb, from Pennsylvania’s 18 th Congressional District.

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The reason the blog withheld its forecast for so long is because the Dems’ Blue Wave has been ebbing away rapidly. What should have been a decidedly Democrat victory in November has been, and is continuing to be, whittled away by the Dems rabid hatred of the President. Democrat radicals continue to increase their number in the party. Too be quite blunt and honest, these members and elected officials in the party, at times, appear to be off the wall.

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Mainstream Independents and Democrat moderates are repulsed by the antics of these extremists, and they continue to move out of the party and withhold support for Democrat candidates linked to the far-left agenda. This doesn’t seem to phase this radical element that continues to plot an extremist agenda for the party.

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The fate of the midterm election rests in the hands of a large grouping of independents who will tip the scales in favor of one party over the other on election day. Most of the movement of this grouping of voters, since August and September, has been towards the GOP. The main impetus for the movement of voters was initially the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, despite what biased polling shows.

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The Dems played their cards at the onset of the hearings. Chuck Schumer declared he would do anything within his power to defeat Kavanaugh’s nomination, then the Dems on the Senate Judiciary Committee declared they would not support Kavanaugh’s confirmation—without the nominee ever being questioned yet. …That’s not very American.

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When the hearing unfolded, the conduct of the Dems was an embarrassment. Senator Cory Booker likened himself to Spartacus, threatening to reveal undisclosed documents at the risk of expulsion. We would later learn that Spartacus already was made aware that the documents he was bravely revealing were already cleared for release. Whoops!

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When they couldn’t beat Kavanaugh on substance and character, it was time to resort to a longstanding Dem tradition at Supreme Court nominee hearings—stepping down to the gutter and tossing sleaze. Here, the Dems produced an eleventh-hour witness who claimed Kavanaugh attempted to rape her. The fickle fingers of Senator Dianne Feinstein held onto the accuser’s letter until after Kavanaugh’s questioning ended. Obviously, part of a strategy to attempt to run out the clock on Kavanaugh and any future Trump replacement.

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The Dems reluctant witness, Christine Blasey Ford, was kept in the close proximity of known Dem operatives, where she allegedly wrote the letter leaked to the media and to Feinstein. [The suspicion of this blog is that the letter was composed by Democrat operatives. Why? Because a passage in the letter refers to Ford’s close friend, Leland Ingham Keyser, as a “him.” Only someone not knowing that Leland was a female could make such a mistake—Ford knew her close friend was a female, the letter writer did not.]

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The Dems turned the committee hearing into a circus sideshow—like clowns piling out of a midget car, one by one, they each took turns at trying to destroy a decent Catholic American with a beautiful family and impeccable resume, all verified by six FBI background checks. They were even aided and abated by Stormy’s Daniel’s attorney, Michael Avenatti, who declared Kavanaugh to be a gang rapist, using an accuser too dumb to follow the script laid out for her. Spartacus seized the opportunity to fundraise off of this sad spectacle.

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To make matters worse, despite the fact that all of the witnesses Ford cited couldn’t corroborate her story, the Dems then declared that women who make accusations of sexual assault should be believed, even if their charges were uncorroborated—eradicating the long held American constitutional right of “innocent until proven guilty.”

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The Dems didn’t succeed with their typical sexcapades attack, as was once employed in an attempt to destroy a previous nominee, Robert Bork; and then trotted out again to try and destroy another African American nominee, Clarence Thomas. Thomas called them out, declaring the Dem antics as a “high-tech lynching” of a black man who chose to think differently. The Dems then meekly climbed back down their man hole and retreated back into the DC sewer.

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This Dems conduct caused, yet again, another mass migration of people out of their party—alike the blue-collar workers that they wagged the party’s middle finger at during the 2016 national elections. This time, they managed to begin losing a faction that they desperately needed to count on for support in the mid-terms—suburban housewives.

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When the Dems abandoned the notion of “innocent until proven guilty” for ‘believe the women accuser and not the evidence,’ the suburban housewives and other women, who have sons as college students or of high school age, began to have second thoughts. Their sons could become fair game like Kavanaugh. The Dems antics since Kavanaugh—proposing his impeachment, storming the Supreme Court, and using mobs , excuse me, crowds of paid protestors to harass Senators who supported Kavanaugh’s nomination—served to further hemorrhage voters from their party.

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The other key factor that will affect the outcome of the mid-term elections is the migrant’s caravan, and soon to be several caravans of [illegal immigrants, refuges, undocumented aliens], take your pick, enroute from Honduras and intending to storm the United States southern border to invade the country and plead for asylum. This is a well-choreographed and non-spontaneous event, again; being ably supported by its glowing coverage in the media.

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The caravan is composed mostly of young men of army age, who push their scant camouflage—women and children—in front of them whenever the media cameras are rolling. This also happens to be one of the best dressed caravans—clean tee shirts and new sneakers dominate the wardrobe of the impoverished marchers. Sadly, news reports of sexual assaults of woman and children in the migrant caravan are beginning to leak out.

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The only thing the well-oiled caravan might be missing is the Duke Ellington orchestra. And, what are the odds that Spartacus will show up and lead the march, high stepping it out in front of the caravan? Probably, as soon as his handlers can figure a way to milk some campaign dough off of this crisis.

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By the time the next blog is written, you will learn that three countries working at arm’s length, but in concert with each other—Venezuela, China, and Iran—are providing the funding and resources for these caravans to move forward, for the express purpose of creating chaos in our country. The organization being used as the instrument for the delivery of the caravans will be found out to be Pueblo Sin Fronteras, a Honduras based organization able to hide their financial supporters, and whose mission is to migrate people out of the Central and South Americas.

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The caravan crisis will further gin up support for GOP candidates. The Dems and their protectors in the media are totally misplaying this crisis. The media has been covering and tracking the caravan the way they do hurricanes. The Dems’ failure to support Trump’s vow to stop the invasion will cost them votes and seats that they counted on winning. Blue wave, goodbye!

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Even liberals and progressives are concerned about the threat posed by the caravans, and what it will lead to if they are encouraged and not stopped. The Dems and media hate Trump so much, that when he takes a position that an overwhelming number of Americans will support, their kneejerk reaction is just to oppose and attack him. They collude among themselves to label the President a “fear monger.” This strategy, like the Kavanaugh strategy, will also go down in flames.

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As I am up against post time for this blog, breaking news is reporting that a far-right extremist is responsible for mailing explosive devices to prominent Democrat politicians and CNN news. The media, no doubt, will attempt to massage this incident as a reason to depose of Trump and Republicans from office, in an attempt to help the Dems to rebound in the mid-term elections.

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If the Dems can stay out of the spotlight and just let their supporters in the media carry the day for them, then they have the potential for riding the wake of this story to shore for a victory. The media does have the ability to subtly flip Independent voters. The only thing that can screw this up is the radical elements of the Dem party stealing the stage from the failed mad bomber news story.

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So, with all of this in mind, here is the blog forecast for the upcoming mid-term elections, shaped by the fate of three major news stories influencing independent voters: the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, the migrant’s caravan heading for our border, and the drama of the right-wing nut, the failed mad bomber.

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The GOP still holds control of the Senate. Here in New Jersey, for the very same reason that the sleaze attack against Kavanaugh backfired on the Dems, the sleaze dished out against incumbent Senator Robert Menendez will likewise backfire on the GOP. Additionally, the mad bomber story moves enough of New Jersey’s abundant Independent voters over to Menendez. The incumbent Senator will be reelected by a larger than expected margin. Again, without the mad bomber story impacting voters, the GOP would actually pickup seats in the Senate. However, even if the story does move independents off of Republicans, the GOP still wins the Senate by a seat or two.

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If the election were held three weeks ago, the Dems would have taken the House. But after the Kavanaugh disaster and the Dems expected continued fumbling of the caravan crisis, they blew their opportunity. The failed mad-bomber gives them new hope. The prediction today is that the Dems pickup seats in the House, though not enough to hold the majority. The worse that they continue to publicly portray themselves in the waning days before the election, the more seats they will lose, expanding the GOP victory.

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But, if the Dems can give their antics a rest, and just allow their friends in the media to carry the ball for them by massaging the failed mad bomber story right up until election day, then they have a chance to rebound. Independent voters and suburban women can be persuaded to send Trump a message about rhetoric. Unfortunately for the GOP, the failed mad bomber was one of their supporters. In this case, the Dems can win the House by a whisker. But the Dems hatred for Trump continues to blind them, perhaps depriving the party of the discipline necessary to win elections. We shall see.

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What was it that President Nixon once said? “Those that hate you never win, unless you hate them back…and then, you destroy yourself.”

Lou Manzo is a former Assemblyman from Jersey City.

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