By Omer Arain

A narrow finish in Iowa and the 2020 Democratic primary remains quite crowded. Candidates are scrambling to pick up political endorsements in the early voting states, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, before Super Tuesday on March 3. News agencies closely track these endorsements, from local to national politicians. Five Thirty Eight’s tracker weighs the endorsements by power of the endorsing office and Slate even published a ranking of candidates’ celebrity endorsements. But critically, it seems nearly all endorsement trackers and articles understate the significance of grassroots endorsements from groups like unions or nationwide coalitions, and the role they serve for campaigns.

Rooted in organizing and mobilization, these groups could make the difference for electoral success - with their own people, networks, and resources functioning as ancillary field staff for a campaign. The youth-led, climate-focused Sunrise Movement, for example, knocked on 14,000 doors last weekend in New Hampshire. And as DfP co-founder Sean McElwee wrote in 2015, individuals in union households are more likely to vote than non-union households. Scholarly evidence suggests ”grassroots contacting activities can effectively motivate electoral participation” - and electoral success. An undecided voter could be compelled by their favorite governor’s endorsement, but they could be equally compelled by the immigrant-rights organization knocking on their door for a candidate.

We tracked every major endorsement coming from grassroots organizations, such as unions, minor political parties and clubs, advocacy groups, and nationwide coalitions. We left out political action committees, such as Brand New Congress, because while they may support organizing activities, PACs are focused on campaign finance. We also excluded candidate-associated organizations like Our Revolution, for while they may be independent and engaged in active organizing, they do not necessarily represent an independent “endorsement” of a candidate. The main findings include:

Joe Biden holds the most union support as measured by total membership of the endorsing unions, but Bernie Sanders has more individual union endorsements across local, state, and national chapters. In some cases, Sanders is endorsed by a local union whose national affiliate had not yet endorsed or endorsed a different candidate.

Bernie Sanders carries an overwhelming lead in the number of supporting grassroots organizations and national coalitions. These groups signal progressive support for Sanders, as well as an indicator to the size of additional resources, networks, and field staff fueling his campaign.

Other than Sanders, only Elizabeth Warren has any noteworthy support from progressive grassroots organizations, with Pete Buttigieg only receiving one endorsement. In the case of two union locals and one environmental organization, Sanders and Warren are co-endorsed. Other candidates, including Amy Klobuchar, Tom Steyer, Andrew Yang, Deval Patrick, and Michael Bloomberg, have not received any endorsements.

Note on methodology: I tried to be comprehensive in capturing endorsements by searching through candidate websites, news coverage, and Twitter posts from organizations. Still an imperfect process, it is possible an endorsement was missed. Media coverage on smaller organization endorsements is not great! The full dataset with sources is available here.

Unions

Many national unions have held off from making endorsements in a crowded Democratic field, with a handful making endorsements last year. Union locals, particularly in early voting states like Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and California, increasingly began making endorsements in the weeks leading up to their primary or caucus day.

Fueled by endorsements from large national unions like the Electrical Workers, Ironworkers, and Firefighters, Joe Biden carries the lead as measured by the membership size of endorsing unions. Bernie Sanders has won the most union support as measured by the number of endorsements, including support from recently striking teachers in Los Angeles, Oakland, and Nevada. Sanders also enjoys endorsements from local unions that endorsed a candidate before their national affiliate, such as SEIU Local 1984 in New Hampshire, or endorsed a candidate different than their national affiliate, such as IBEW Local 1634 in Iowa. Elizabeth Warren is endorsed by teachers’ unions in Massachusetts and was co-endorsed with Sanders by another national healthcare worker union.