A fight has broken out in Italy’s Democratic party, which badly lost Sunday’s election after ruling the country for six years, as it debates whether it should join forces with populists and create a new government.

The infighting erupted as fresh analysis of Sunday’s election, which resulted in a hung parliament, showed clear links between a surge in support for the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and regions in southern Italy where economic growth falls far below the EU average.



About half of all Italian voters supported the country’s two populist parties , the M5S and the League, the latter of which ran as part of a centre-right coalition, and leaders in both groups are competing for the chance to lead the formation of a new government. No single party or coalition won an outright majority on Sunday, leaving the task of mediating a solution to the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella.

What is not clear is how interventionist Mattarella will be and whether he might seek ways to stymie some of the most radical populist campaign promises , such as seeking to abolish a recently passed jobs act.

Under one possible scenario, the M5S, which won 32% of the vote, could join forces with the Democratic party, which won an abysmal 18%. Such a combination would give the PD, which is still, for now, headed by the former prime minister Matteo Renzi, an important seat at the negotiating table and would likely lead to some dampening down of the M5S in government.

But an intense debate about the PD’s next move erupted after Renzi, in a speech on Monday in which he said he would resign, vowed not to link up with any “extremist” parties. Complicating matters, Renzi said he would not officially step down from his position as head of the party until after a new government was formed. Then, on Tuesday, amid reports of strife, he reportedly declared he would not attend an upcoming meeting of all party leaders at the president’s palace and instead intended to go skiing. Renzi then denied the reports he was heading for the slopes.

The key question for the PD is whether it ought to agree a deal with Luigi Di Maio of the M5S, who has suggested he is open to discussions, or remain an outside agitator.

“The country cannot wait for long negotiations. It needs to know immediately that the PD will support an M5S government effort,” said Michele Emiliano, the PD governor of Puglia.

The previous longtime Italian president, Giorgio Napolitano, was known – sometimes controversially – for playing kingmaker, and creating coalitions, such as one between the PD and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia that seemed designed to keep populist parties such as the M5S at bay. In Brussels, the populists are seen as a possible threat to Italian stability and economic progress, in part because both major parties are critical of EU budgeting policies that they blame for constraining spending to the detriment of the Italian economy.

But Mattarella was likely to take a more passive role, said analyst Wolfango Piccoli. If either the M5S or the League take the lead in creating a government, Mattarella could play a role in suggesting whether he prefers one prime minister over another, but he is not likely to force a marriage in the way that Napolitano did.

The League’s Matteo Salvini – who is brash, openly xenophobic and this week predicted the euro’s eventual demise – could in theory be given the role of prime minister under an agreement he reached with Berlusconi, his coalition partner, if it won Mattarella’s blessing, since the coalition did not win an outright majority. But the consensus is that he would be seen as too toxic and controversial a choice for Mattarella, who would more likely give the green light to other politicians in the League who have a more traditional political background.

“If Salvini decides today, we are not going to go for the prime minister job, then it becomes easier to strike a deal,” said Piccoli.

The formation of a new government is still expected to take weeks and could ultimately lead to the call for new elections if only a temporary fix is found.