At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2016. Most of them are objectively decideable, but a few are subjective (eg “X goes well”) and are marked with asterisks.

WORLD EVENTS

1. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60%

2. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%

3. Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro: 95%

4. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90%

5. …in any First World country: 80%

6. Assad will remain President of Syria: 60% [edit: called out as dumb, but I won’t cheat and change it]

7. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%

8. No major intifada in Israel this year (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war): 80%

9* No interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general this year: 90%

10. No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza this year: 90%

11* Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 70%

12. Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 70%

13. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90%

14. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity [added: meant in Iraq/Syria]: 60% [edit: called out as dumb, but I won’t cheat and change it]

15. No major civil war in Middle Eastern country not currently experiencing a major civil war: 90%

16* Libya to remain a mess: 80%

17. Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80%

18. No country currently in Euro or EU announces plan to leave: 90%

19. No agreement reached on “two-speed EU”: 80%

20. Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination: 95%

21. Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination: 60%

22* Conditional on Trump winning the Republican nomination, he impresses everyone how quickly he pivots towards wider acceptability: 70%

23. Conditional on Trump winning the Republican nomination, he’ll lose the general election: 80%

24. Conditional on Trump winning the Republican nomination, he’ll lose the general election worse than either McCain or Romney: 70%

25. Marco Rubio will not win the Republican nomination: 60% [edit: called out as dumb, but I won’t cheat and change it]

26. Bloomberg will not run for President: 80%

27. Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency: 60%

28. Republicans will keep the House: 95%

29. Republicans will keep the Senate: 70%

30. Bitcoin will end the year higher than $500: 80%

31. Oil will end the year lower than $40 a barrel: 60%

32. Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 70%

33. Shanghai index will not fall > 10% this year: 60% [edit: called out as dumb, but I won’t cheat and change it]

34. No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%

35. No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over tiny stupid islands: 99%

36. No exchange of fire over tiny stupid islands: 90%

37. US GDP growth lower than in 2015: 60%

38. US unemployment to be lower at end of year than beginning: 50%

39. No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such: 90%

40* No major change in how the media treats social justice issues from 2015: 70%

41* European far right makes modest but not spectacular gains: 80%

42* Mainstream European position at year’s end is taking migrants was bad idea: 60%

43. [Duplicate removed]

44* So-called “Ferguson effect” continues and becomes harder to deny: 70%

45. SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: 50%

46* Nobody important changes their mind much about the EMDrive based on any information found in 2016: 80%

47. California’s drought not officially declared over: 50%

48. No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US: 99%

49. No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 60%

50. Occupation of Oregon ranger station ends: 99%

PERSONAL/COMMUNITY

1. SSC will remain active: 95%

2. SSC will get fewer hits than in 2015: 60%

3. At least one SSC post > 100,000 hits: 50%

4. UNSONG will get fewer hits than SSC in 2016: 90%

5. > 10 new permabans from SSC this year: 70%

5. UNSONG will get > 1,000,000 hits: 50%

6. UNSONG will not miss any updates: 50%

7. UNSONG will have higher Google Trends volume than HPMOR at the end of this year: 60%

8. UNSONG Reddit will not have higher average user activity than HPMOR Reddit at the end of this year: 60%

9. Shireroth will remain active: 70%

10. I will be involved in at least one published/accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2016: 50%

11. I won’t stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook: 95%

12. > 10,000 Twitter followers by end of this year: 50%

13. I will not break up with any of my current girlfriends: 70%

14. I will not get any new girlfriends: 50%

15. I will attend at least one Solstice next year: 90%

16. …at least two Solstices: 70%

17. I will finish a long blog post review of stereotype threat this year: 60%

18* Conditional on finishing it, it won’t significantly change my position: 90%

19. I will finish a long FAQ this year: 60%

20. I will not have a post-residency job all lined up by the end of this year: 80%

21. I will have finished all the relevant parts of my California medical license application by the end of this year: 70%

22. I will no longer be living in my current house at the end of this year: 70%

23. I will still be at my current job: 95%

24. I will still not have gotten my elective surgery: 80%

25. I will not have been hospitalized (excluding ER) for any other reason: 95%

26. I will not have taken any international vacations with my family: 70%

27. I will not be taking any nootropic daily or near-daily during any 2-month period this year: 90%

28. I will complete an LW/SSC survey: 80%

29. I will complete a new nootropics survey: 80%

30. I will score 95th percentile or above in next year’s PRITE: 50%

31. I will not be Chief Resident next year: 60%

32. I will not have any inpatient rotations: 50%

33. I will continue doing outpatient at the current clinic: 90%

34* I will not have major car problems: 60%

35* I won’t publicly and drastically change highest-level political/religious/philosophical positions (eg become a Muslim or Republican): 90%

36. I will not vote in the 2016 primary: 70%

37. I will vote in the 2016 general election: 60%

38. Conditional on me voting and Hillary being on the ballot, I will vote for Hillary: 90%

39* I will not significantly change my mind about psychodynamic or cognitive-behavioral therapy: 80%

40. I will not attend the APA meeting this year: 80%

41. I will not do any illegal drugs (besides gray-area nootropics) this year: 90%

42. I will not get drunk this year: 80%

43* Less Wrong will neither have shut down entirely nor undergone any successful renaissance/pivot by the end of this year: 60%

44. No co-bloggers (with more than 5 posts) on SSC by the end of this year: 80%

45. I get at least one article published on a major site like Huffington Post or Vox or New Statesman or something: 50%

46. I still plan to move to California when I’m done with residency: 90%

47. I don’t manage to make it to my friend’s wedding in Ireland: 60%

48. I don’t attend any weddings this year: 50%

49. I decide to buy the car I am currently leasing: 60%

50. Except for the money I spend buying the car, I make my savings goal before July 2016: 90%

Other people doing yearly predictions with probability: Against Jebel al-Lawz, Anatoly Karlin, Old Lamps, Garrett Peterson. If you’re doing this and I missed it, let me know and I’ll add you in.