From the snow-capped mountains of Patagonia to the plains of Gran Chaco, Argentina’s 32 million eligible voters go to the polls on Sunday to choose a successor to the outgoing president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.



Polls suggest the country’s first presidential runoff could result in a sharp change of direction for South America’s second biggest economy, following 12 years of populist, leftwing “Kirchnerism”.

Coming from behind, Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri of the centre-right Cambiemos (Let’s Change) party, is at least 5 percentage points ahead of the Fernández candidate, Daniel Scioli, according to latest polls.

However, the polls were unreliable in the first round, which Scioli was expected to win comfortably. To the shock of many, however, Scioli garnered a lead of just 2.5 points, and has since struggled to secure the support of the eliminated candidates and undecided voters, leaving him with ground to make up on the final day.

The consequences of a change could be enormous. Macri has promised to introduce more pro-business policies, reduce inflation, cut deals with foreign creditors and realign Argentina’s foreign policy away from Venezuela and Iran and closer to the US. He has also indicated that he will adopt a less confrontational stance over the Falkland Islands.

Instead, he has promised better management to improve living conditions. At the close of his campaign in distant Humahuaca, Macri told the crowd he would “work every day for you to have a better life”.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner with her favoured candidate, and Buenos Aires governor, Daniel Scioli. Photograph: Juan Mabromata/AFP/Getty Images

Scioli, by contrast, held his final rally in the Buenos Aires stronghold of La Matanza, declaring himself the enemy of the “savage capitalism” represented by his rival.

The campaign has been peaceful, but as the prospect of a possible defeat for the ruling camp has sunk in, the decibels of vitriol hurled at Macri have increased. Street graffiti and Facebook and Twitter feeds have been repeating a simple, hard message spray-painted and posted: “Love, yes. Macri, no.”

Critics fear Macri plans a return to the neo-liberal policies of the now almost universally reviled former president Carlos Menem in the 1990s, when state utilities were privatised and huge numbers of state employees were laid off as part of a free market programme that ended with economic collapse in 2002.

The chaos of that period ended in 2003 with the presidency of Nestor Kirchner, who was succeeded by his wife. Elected during a “pink tide” of leftist administrations in Latin America, the Kirchners initially made impressive gains, securing deals with most of Argentina’s creditors, reducing inequality, boosting employment and supporting closer regional integration.

However, with Nestor’s death in 2010, Argentina’s economy has lost momentum, inflation has surged to around 30% and poverty appears to be creeping back. Fernández has also fought a series of bruising battles with the country’s biggest media group, Clarin.

Voters heading to polling booths in schools, universities and other public buildings on Sunday will be weighing up whether Scioli or Macri can improve the situation.

“We need a change,” said Luciana Esteruelas, a hotel employee who plans to vote against the ruling camp. “Cristina did some good things in the beginning. But there have been more problems in the last few years. It’s time to give someone else a chance.”

Others fear a vote for Macri could mark a weaker stance on human rights, particularly regarding the victims of Argentina’s 1976-83 dictatorship. “I will vote for Scioli, convinced I will be doing the right thing,” said Víctor Basterra, a survivor of the former ESMA navy school where some 5,000 people were murdered in the 1970s. “To do the opposite would be a kind of suicide”.