Simply put, Severino is one of the best pitchers in MLB. The question heading into 2020 is, are the lat and shoulder issues that cost him all but three regular-season starts behind him? Initially diagnosed with a sore rotator cuff early in spring training, Severino was later revealed to have also suffered a Grade 2 lat strain which is what was responsible for the lengthy absence. When Severino returned, his velocity was just a tick below normal, offering some optimism for a full recovery. Severino is unfairly penalized for his home venue. Yankee Stadium is plus for homers but suppresses runs. This helps explain his success in the Bronx where his career ERA and WHIP are a tad better than on the road. Most will want to wait until the spring before investing, creating a buying opportunity in early drafts. However, even if healthy, Severino's workload will likely be lower than other aces. Read Past Outlooks

$Signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Yankees in February of 2019. Contract includes $15 million team option ($2.75 million buyout) for 2023.

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. On top of that, he injured his shoulder warming up for his first spring training game and is expected to start the season on the injured list.

A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.

Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.

The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.

No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.