Odds to win 2019 regular-season MVP

Blezow’s breakdown: When handicapping the MVP race in this modern era, it’s most likely a waste of money to pick anyone other than a quarterback. In the last 11 seasons, Adrian Peterson (2012) is the only non-QB to win it. Lawrence Taylor (1986) is the last defensive player. No receiver ever has won, not even Jerry Rice. Amazingly, kicker Mark Mosely won in 1982, so long ago he wore a single-bar helmet. Still, you have to be judicious in your quarterback selection and find the guy who not only will put up big numbers, but also captivate the nation. Patrick Mahomes did just that in 2018 and is the heavy favorite to repeat as MVP. But the charismatic choice now is Baker Mayfield. When he entered the Week 3 game against the Jets last year, the Browns were on an 0-18-1 streak. If you believe Mayfield will lead Cleveland to the playoffs, you have your answer.

Winner: Baker Mayfield 20/1

Mid-range threat: Philip Rivers 18/1

Live long shot: Derek Carr 30/1

Most regular-season passing yards

Blezow’s breakdown: Last year’s winner, Ben Roethlisberger, lost Antonio Brown, which means defenses now can pay more attention to JuJu Smith-Schuster. Patrick Mahomes still has some great weapons, but defenses should have some new strategies to try to stop him. Look for value down the odds board. Jared Goff will get Cooper Kupp back to team with Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Goff was fourth last year, and the Rams might pass even more if Todd Gurley isn’t fit to be a bell-cow runner. Tom Brady, the 2017 winner, never can be counted out. Matt Ryan is usually near the top, and Kirk Cousins, another indoor QB, can roll up numbers with Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook out of the backfield.

Winner: Jared Goff 18/1

Mid-range threat: Tom Brady 20/1

Live long shot: Kirk Cousins 30/1

Most regular-season rushing yards

Blezow’s breakdown: Saquon Barkley was the runner-up last year, but 721 of his yards from scrimmage came on receptions. That illustrates how this is a tough category to win for him and other dual threats such as Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey. Barkley is so good, though, that he can’t be dismissed. Hard to back favorite Ezekiel Elliott, who missed all of training camp and the preseason. Nick Chubb will eventually have Kareem Hunt sharing the load in Cleveland. The champ could come from a group that includes Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry and Chris Carson. And the pick here is Henry, who posted the NFL’s biggest rushing total of 2018 (238 yards versus Jaguars).

Winner: Derrick Henry 15/1

Fine favorite: Saquon Barkley 13/5

Live long shot: Chris Carson 28/1

Most regular-season receiving yards

Blezow’s breakdown: Defending-champ Julio Jones is certainly worth his favorite status. He has topped 1,400 yards each of the last five seasons, plays indoors and has a very good quarterback. About the only negative is he is now 30. Odell Beckham Jr. has a lot to prove, but also will play in some bad weather on a team with a lot of offensive threats. JuJu Smith-Schuster will get more double coverage with Antonio Brown gone. This race is likely to be an all-chalk trifecta with some mix of DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas and Mike Evans joining Jones in the top three. Thomas could be the one to conquer Jones if the Saints go on a mission to ransack the league as payback for the NFC title game non-call.

Winner: Julio Jones 9/2

Fine favorite: Michael Thomas 8/1

Mid-range threat: Mike Evans 14/1

Other NFL bets worth making

Lions Under 6¹/₂ regular-season wins (+120 at William Hill): The Lions are coming off a last-place, 6-10 season, and it’s easy to see them dropping even further in a division with the Bears, Vikings and Packers where there are no cupcake games. If they can’t win their opener at Arizona, the Lions could be buried by mid-October with Chargers, at Eagles, Chiefs, at Packers, Vikings the next five games.

Raiders Over six regular-season wins (+110): Sure this pick is influenced by watching HBO’s “Hard Knocks,” which made it clear the Raiders are well aware most people think they stink. Jon Gruden has won at least seven games in nine of his 12 seasons in Oakland and Tampa Bay. Last season was doomed by the late trade of Khalil Mack. If they go 2-4 in division, figuring they can find five wins against the likes of the Colts, Texans, Lions, Bengals, Titans, Jets and Jaguars. Knock on wood if you’re with me!

Under 3¹/₂ individual 200-yard rushing games (-135): In 2018 there were three — Derrick Henry (238), Isaiah Crowell (219) and Todd Gurley (208). Figuring that number goes down rather than up, thanks in part to the new pass-interference reviews that should promote even more throwing.

DeAndre Hopkins more receiving yards than JuJu-Smith Schuster (-135): Seems like low juice for this matchup. Hopkins won it last season and plays more games indoors or in good weather. He’s drawn the opposition’s top cover corner and been double-covered for years. This will be the first time for JJ-SS.