Will The Shape of Water and Three Billboards dominate at the first post-Weinstein Academy Awards? Our chief critic makes his picks

The grandees of Hollywood are approaching this year’s Oscars in a pretty subdued and wary mood, the most subdued since the days of 9/11 and the Iraq war. Because this is the Former Court of King Harvey, the first ceremony since Weinstein’s downfall, and that of many others. This is the arena in which Harvey Weinstein could preen himself; this is part of how he dazzled and intimidated his victims. It is the award-ceremony ecosystem that allowed Weinstein-style predators to flourish.

The full list of nominations for the Oscars 2018 Read more

There are probably plenty of undiscovered Hollywood abusers who are keeping their heads down, waiting for this problem to go away – rather like tense occupants of a submarine in a war movie, maintaining nerve-shreddingly tense silence as an enemy warship passes overhead. This ceremony could prove to be their undoing. At the Golden Globes, James Franco was at one moment the hero of the hour, winning for The Disaster Artist, and then he was denounced by a victim watching on TV, infuriated that Franco wore a Time’s Up ribbon. Within what seemed like microseconds, Franco’s image was airbrushed from Vanity Fair’s Hollywood cover photo. It happens that quickly. Certain men will be wondering: do I risk looking unwoke by not wearing the #TimesUp ribbon? Or risk catastrophe by wearing it? We could see some weird, unexplained no-shows at this year’s event.

There is also the question of male victims. Brendan Fraser has won much praise for giving an interview about his depression and career spiral, which stemmed from being abused and groped at the 2003 Golden Globes by a senior official from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Fraser made a complaint at the time, for which he received a boilerplate non-apology. The strange truth is that if Fraser had remained silent and then revealed this event right now, he could probably have inflicted a devastating blow.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Best actress? ... Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Photograph: AP

So there will be defiance at the Oscars this year, and qualified celebration that women are finding more recognition. Frances McDormand is a widely tipped best actress nominee for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, for her role as the mother looking for revenge. It makes sense to reward McDormand in the Time’s Up era, and this will almost certainly happen.

Then are the films themselves: many of the frontrunners seem to have acquired their own Achilles heels, objections of varying levels of seriousness that their producers have had to ride out. Three Billboards? The perceived racism of allowing redemption for the bigoted character. Darkest Hour? Winston’s fictitious tube journey with forelock-tugging subjects from all over the Empire. The Shape of Water? Guillermo del Toro’s unacknowledged debts to Jean-Pierre Jeunet.

My own worry is that this year’s Oscars are going to reward two movies – The Shape of Water and Three Billboards – which although very good, have been marginally overpraised. (I accept Martin McDonagh’s good faith on the issue of whether or not his racist character has been soft-pedalled.) It would be a shame if these movies get a landslide over better films like Get Out, Phantom Thread, Call Me By Your Name and The Florida Project. Darkest Hour is very entertaining, and Gary Oldman’s impersonation of Churchill is exhilarating. But a victory for him will happen at the expense of subtler performances.

Well, we shall see. My predictions are below.

Best picture

Will win: The Shape of Water

Should win: Get Out

Shoulda been a contender: Coco

Best director

Will win: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water

Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread

Shoulda been a contender: Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name

Best actor

Will win: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour

Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread

Shoulda been a contender: Makis Papadimitrou for Suntan

Best actress

Will win: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should win: Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird

Shoulda been a contender: Kristen Stewart for Personal Shopper

Best supporting actor

Will win: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should win: Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project

Shoulda been a contender: Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name

Best supporting actress

Will win: Allison Janney for I, Tonya

Should win: Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird

Shoulda been a contender: Catherine Keener for Get Out

Best animated feature

Will win: Coco

Should win: Coco

Shoulda been a contender: Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Best animated feature? ... Coco. Photograph: Pixar

Best adapted screenplay

Will win: James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name

Should win: James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name

Shoulda been a contender: Gaby Chiappe for Their Finest

Best original screenplay

Will win: Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor for The Shape of Water

Should win: Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird

Shoulda been a contender: Noah Baumbach for The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

Best cinematography

Will win: Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049

Should win: Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049

Shoulda been a contender: M David Mullen for The Love Witch

Best documentary

Will win: Icarus

Should win: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Shoulda been a contender: City of Ghosts

Best foreign language film

Will win: On Body and Soul

Should win: Loveless

Shoulda been a contender: The Handmaiden