The survey results (Admit it. You skipped straight here, didn’t you?) Two-thirds of Liberal Democrat members think Tim Farron was right to resign as leader By 66%-34% members who expressed a view said that Tim Farron was right to resign as leader.

Of those 66%, over two-thirds thought he was both right to resign and to do so when he did, but the rest would have preferred him to resign at a later date.

Many members added comments expressing their view that although they agreed with Tim Farron’s decision to resign, they disagreed with his reasons – such as believing that he should have resigned instead because of his performance in the 2017 election (something I looked at in more detail last time) As for who people want to be the next leader – because we don’t yet have a confirmed field, the survey listed all 11 other Liberal Democrat MPs and asked members to rate them in order of preference. This both allows us to see who is the most popular pick and also how the popularity of candidates would look depending on which combination of people actually stand in the end. That will, most likely, be some combination of Vince Cable, Edward Davey, Norman Lamb and Jo Swinson. Jo Swinson is the runaway favourite When asked to rate the 11 Liberal Democrat MPs other than Tim Farron in order of preference for party leader, 57% gave Jo Swinson their first preference.

No other candidate got even as high as 15% of first preferences. On that showing, she would win in the first round in any contest. Even if her vote dipped below 50% in an actual contest, she draws second preferences widely from the supporters of all other MPs, and would still win with ease based on this survey.

Because of her clear lead over all other candidates combined, it does not matter what combination of other candidates there really are when it comes to the actual election. She would win easily whatever the actual line up is. If Jo Swinson doesn’t stand… Lamb slightly ahead of Cable – If Jo Swinson wins clearly whatever the combination of candidates, it’s a very different picture if she doesn’t stand. Rerunning the count with her votes transferred over to their second preferences gives a very close looking race with Norman Lamb fractionally ahead of Vince Cable with 30% to his 29%. Edward Davey is on 18% and the other MPs share the rest of the support, with Layla Moran the best of the rest on 8%.

– If Jo Swinson wins clearly whatever the combination of candidates, it’s a very different picture if she doesn’t stand. Rerunning the count with her votes transferred over to their second preferences gives a very close looking race with Norman Lamb fractionally ahead of Vince Cable with 30% to his 29%. Edward Davey is on 18% and the other MPs share the rest of the support, with Layla Moran the best of the rest on 8%. If all the other candidates are eliminated and votes transferred to Norman Lamb or Vince Cable, Norman Lamb extends his lead, just, to a 52% – 48% margin over Vince Cable.

Note: It is possible these figures under-estimate Norman Lamb’s actual support compared with Vince Cable as the responses slightly over-represent London members, where Vince Cable is stronger, and also the proportion recalling that they voted for Norman Lamb rather than Tim Farron in 2015 is on the low side (though that may be the usual effect of people’s memories changing or fading to the detriment of the non-winner when recalling how they voted). The first factor, however, is, at most, not large and the second is unknown.

Cable ahead of Davey – If Norman Lamb also does not stand, then Vince Cable wins out over Edward Davey 57%-43%. Of course, even if this survey is pinpoint accurate, it tells us how support currently stands amongst Liberal Democrat members. Campaigns can cause changes as Theresa May can attest. But so far Jo Swinson is the clear favourite and if she doens’t stand, it looks to be a close contest between Norman Lamb and Vince Cable with the odds slightly in Norman Lamb’s favour.