As the open source insurgency continues to improve its methods and the US counter-insurgency effort becomes more of a police force to bolster street level security, the potential for successful assaults and overruns of small US outposts becomes a major threat. This worry, which was explored last year in briefs on this weblog, became a reality today as guerrillas mounted a triple carbomb (VBIED) and swarming attack on a US outpost 30 miles north of Baghdad in Tarmyia.

The small size of the base (100 US soldiers) and its urban location (in the middle of the town) made it particularly suitable for an attack. To attack the outpost, the guerrillas used the technique used earlier in attacks on hotels/hospitals in central Baghdad. An initial attack was made with several carbombs and a third carbomb was used to kill/injure the attackers in the response force investigating the initial attack. The attack was capped with a swarming attack on the outpost from all points on the compass (read "Swarming" for more on this tactic). 2 US troops died and 17 were wounded in the attack. The only thing lacking from earlier practice was media coverage of the event (it might still end up on YouTube) and, luckily, the recently developed technique for ambushing helicopter borne responders.

This will not be an isolated incident. The risk of a complete overrun exists and that risk will grow as the US continues to push forward with more aggressive counter-insurgency operations at the street level.