But there are actually some more interesting things to contemplate in these results.

Figures remarkably similar

One is to look back at how the latest figures compare with the poll taken in mid April - before the budget.

These are also remarkably similar.

That is, the primary vote of the two parties has not shifted, despite all the sound and fury about how the budget didn't go down well, all the bad headlines about superannuation and about tax cuts for the rich, and then despite all that has happened in the 'official' election campaign

Laura Tingle Approval rating Two-party polling based on preference flow at the last election. The poll results are based on a national survey of 1497 respondents (aged 18+) conducted by telephone from May 17-19, 2016. Data is weighted by age, sex and location. Preferred PM Phillip Coorey The starkest election choice in years Two-party SOURCE: IPSOS | GRAPHIC: EDMUND TADROS, LES HEWITT Both sides remain evenly matched Support for the Coalition and Labor remains unchanged a fortnight into the election campaign Primary vote Primary support for the Coalition remains well ahead of Labor The starkest election choice in years The majority of voters continue to prefer Turnbull as PM Turnbull's approval rating has steadied while Shorten's continues to increase NB: May not sum due to rounding

In fact, Malcolm Turnbull's approval figures seem to have stabilised in the past month, even though his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed.

In a slight inverse of these trends, Bill Shorten's approval figures have shot a lot higher but his standing as preferred prime minister is pretty stable.


Both leaders start the election campaign with generally worse personal ratings than their predecessors as prime minister and opposition leader going back 15 years.

That's what the quantitative polls are saying.

Who said that?

Qualitative polling through focus groups is also confirming that people aren't really paying attention.

Visibility's Tony Mitchelmore says the election is seen by many voters as nothing more than "annoying background noise".

Ask them what they they have heard from politics in the past few weeks, he says, and they will say "negative gearing" or "penalty rates". But they can't tell you what was said or even who said it.

Perhaps the most interesting thing from Ipsos is the answer to the question 'who do you think is actually going to win the election?' rather than who you are going to vote for.


The answer? Despite the government's declining fortunes, despite the disillusion with Malcolm Turnbull, despite voters actually re-assessing Bill Shorten and seeing what they like, despite a fortnight of very ordinary Coalition campaigning, and even despite the stability in the polls, there has been a lift in the number of voters who think Turnbull will win.

'Accidental' result risk

If you look at history, this expectation has proved a reliable guide to who actually win.

But in this election - where the parties are at a dead heat - this could be lethal for the Coalition.

A disengaged electorate doesn't take the talk of an actual change in government too seriously. (Perhaps even if it does, it doesn't care too much.)

But most importantly, it believes that, whatever happens, the Coalition will be returned.

That means only one thing: that they believe they have the capacity to give the government a 'kick' thinking it won't change the prospects on polling day. The risk becomes an 'accidental' election result.

Australian federal election 2016: Live coverage, polls and results