Normal text size Larger text size Very large text size On November 6, Americans will head to the polls for the much-anticipated midterm elections. While Donald Trump is not up for re-election until 2020, the midterms will be closely watched to see how voters are responding to an unconventional, polarising president. For most Americans, this will be their first chance to express their happiness – or displeasure –with Trump's performance. “The President is not on the ballot but midterm elections play out as referendums on the president,” says former US ambassador to Australia John Berry. “It's a chance for voters to send a message to the White House.” Heading into the midterms, polls show that while Trump is broadly unpopular, his approval ratings are consistent with several of his predecessors at the same point in their presidency. Voting is not compulsory in the US and turnout is usually significantly lower in midterm elections than in presidential election years.


But there are signs that Americans of both political persuasions are unusually engaged with this year's elections, suggesting turnout could be higher than usual. What's at stake? Republicans currently hold the presidency, the House of Representatives and the Senate, which means one-party control in Washington – a rarity in US history. If Democrats retake either the House or the Senate – the United States' lawmaking chambers – they will be able to block policies they disagree with. For example, the massive Republican overhaul of the US tax system that passed late last year would not have been possible. Neither would any rollback of Obamacare, the law introduced under former president Barack Obama in a bid to make healthcare more affordable for more Americans. Democrats would also be able to legislate their own policies. President Trump must sign off on bills for them to become law, meaning he could veto any Democratic policies he disagrees with. But there is a chance the Democrats and Trump could work together on some issues, such as a big investment in infrastructure.


Here's where the stakes become higher still: winning control of the House or the Senate would also give Democrats the power to launch investigations into the President and to subpoena documents and witnesses. Democrats have already flagged using a House majority to force Trump to release his tax returns and to probe Russia's role in the 2016 election. Turning up the heat One of the thousands of women who railed against Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court. Credit:Bloomberg Events in recent weeks have further inflamed divisions among Americans and injected even more volatility into the elections: The nomination of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, accused by several women of sexual assault while a high school and college student. The process sparked a new national conversation on sexual assault and deepened the political divide between men and women.

The appearance of a caravan of 7000 migrants, mostly from Guatemala, travelling through Mexico towards the US. The development was leapt upon by Trump, who has branded the Democrats the party of “open borders”.

The arrest of a Trump supporter from Florida for sending homemade explosive devices in the mail to a dozen prominent critics of the President.

The shooting killings of 11 worshippers at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, an event that further heightened the prominence of gun safety as an election issue.

The revelation that 53,000 voter registration applications – most of them African-Americans' – had been put on hold because of irregularities in Georgia, where Democrat Stacey Abrams is hoping to become the first black governor in the state's history. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video How likely are the Democrats to win the House or Senate?


As John Berry points out, the historical norm is that the president's party tends to go backwards at midterm elections. A Republican president tends to mobilise Democrats to head to the polls, and vice versa. Meanwhile, complacency often creeps in among supporters of the president's party. It's unlikely that control of the Senate will shift, which is why the focus this time around is on the Democrats' chances of gaining the House. All 435 seats are up for grabs in the House of Representatives, where elections for the full house are held every two years. Republicans hold the majority, with 235 seats compared with the Democrats' 193. To take control of the House, the Democrats will need to win an extra 23 seats. About 60 seats are considered to be competitive, meaning there is a chance they could be won by either party. The seats are called districts and the 60 battleground districts are spread throughout the country: from progressive California and New York to more rural states, such as Iowa and Pennsylvania, that swung strongly behind Donald Trump. There are even seats in play in solidly conservative states such as Kansas and Kentucky. A common feature of many competitive districts this year is that they are suburban with voters who are more educated than the national average. Trump is deeply unpopular with college-educated voters, especially women, which helps explain why the Democrats are favoured to reclaim a House majority.


One-third of US senators – 33 of 100 – are up for re-election, and there are special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi to fill vacancies there, bringing the total number of seats up for grabs to 35. Republicans hold a slim Senate majority of 51 seats to 49, which means that the Democrats have to pick up only two extra seats to flip control of the upper house. Although this sounds relatively easy, the prospect of the Democrats winning a Senate majority is actually slimmer than the prospect of them retaking the House. This is because 24 Democrats are up for re-election in this voting cycle compared with nine Republicans. That's 24 seats to have to defend as well as the two new ones to win. The high number of Democrat seats on the line compared with Republican seats is just bad luck for the Democrats. Senate elections are staggered – every two years, a different batch of US states elect their senators for six-year terms. Senators represent a state in its entirety and there are two senators per state. Many of the Democrats up for re-election represent more conservative states such as Indiana and North Dakota, which Donald Trump easily carried in 2016. So the Democrats have only a few opportunities to take seats from the Republicans. This has forced Senate Democrats to act defensively and deploy significant funds and resources just to hold their current seats.

Democrat Stacey Abrams will be the first female African-American governor if she wins. Credit:Alamy But wait, there's more …


As well as the federal Congress, elections will be held for 36 state governorships. Although these elections attract less attention than national races, they are extremely important. States' rights are jealously guarded in the US, meaning governors have significant power to determine policies on healthcare, guns, education, the environment and minimum wages. Democrats are making a strong play to win governorships in states such as Georgia and Florida, where they have not held power in decades. A big deal The implications of the national elections are undeniable. If the Democrats take control of the Senate, they will be able to block Trump's nominees to the Supreme Court as well as his picks for lower courts and cabinet-level positions. In a more extreme scenario, if the Democrats take control of the House, they will be able to use their majority to impeach President Trump. But they would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate to remove him from office, which is extremely unlikely. The high stakes cut both ways. Berry argues there will also be significant consequences for the Democrats if they fail to capitalise on Trump's unpopularity and don't achieve the “blue wave” their supporters expect. “The Democrats should win a good number of seats in this election – if they don't, they will have some serious soul-searching to do and there will be an overhaul of the party leadership before the next presidential elections in 2020,” he says.