Police chiefs put ‘realistic’ sum at an £400m extra a year, as officer numbers projected to fall almost 3,000 by same year

Police will have £700m less a year to fight crime in the coming years, and fewer officers too, despite forces already being under “significant stress”, the emergency services watchdog said on Wednesday.

According to the police inspectorate, all forces will spend £12.3bnin 2017/18, but that is projected to fall by 6% to £11.6bn by 2020/21.

The intervention by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary, Fire and Rescue Services, in a report on police efficiency, came amid a dispute between the government and much of the police service in advance of the chancellor’s budget later this month.

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Police chiefs said they needed more than £400m extra a year to stem rising demands, including relating to increasing crime, and, if rebuffed, could have to cut officers and further ration services, they said.

The inspectorate also dismissed government claims that forces could raid a large stash of reserves totalling £1.6bn to keep bobbies on the beat.



While the budget declines, officer numbers will fall, by just under 3,000 to 120,217 by 2020/21, with police staff numbers falling too, an overall further cut in the workforce of 2%.



There was some comfort for the government in the report, with the inspectorate finding police could spend their money more efficiently, but most forces – 32 of 42 assessed – were scored as good or outstanding on efficiency. Ten required improvement and none were failing, in the inspectorate’s view. But the report’s findings seemed to mostly bolster the police case.

The government has said it has protected police budgets after repeated cuts which have meant officer numbers declining by more than 20,000 since the Conservatives gained power in 2010.

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The inspectorate said that in the last year there was an 11% rise in recorded crime, from 60 crimes per 1,000 people in England and Wales, to 67 offences per 1,000 people.

Mike Cunningham, who led the inspection, said it was the first time his organisation had given such a stark warning about the strain police were under. “From speaking to staff and officers throughout every police force in England and Wales, we can see that policing is under significant stress.”

Cunningham said officers’ skills needed to change so they could deal with more issues such as domestic violence and modern slavery, so called hidden vulnerability. He said some forces could be more innovative.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Policing minister Nick Hurd has suggested forces might make prudent use of £1.6bn budget reserves. Photograph: Evening Standard/Rex/Shutterstock

The policing minister, Nick Hurd, said: “[The inspectorate’s] report identifies vitally important areas where PCCs [police and crime commissioners] and chief constables should be more ambitious and improve efficiency across forces, especially around digital and workforce reform, and the public rightly expect the police to adapt and transform for the future.

“The government recognises that demand on the police is changing and we are sensitive to the pressures they face. That is why I am leading a review of demand and resilience, as well as assessing how forces can improve efficiency, increase productivity and make prudent use of over £1.6bn of financial reserves.”

On reserves, the inspectorate said the overall figure was £200m less than the government claimed. On top of that, two-thirds was earmarked to be spent, so the real level of reserves that all 43 forces could use was about £414m.

The Metropolitan police commissioner, Cressida Dick, last week warned of cuts to officer numbers if her force had to make an extra £400m in savings because of budget pressures.

Cunningham also said that some complaints from the public were going unanswered, including those relating to claims of violence. It said this happened due to errors by individuals and not because lower-level crimes were being downgraded because of policy decisions.

Sara Thornton, chair of the National Police Chief’s Council, said: “We’ve made £1.6bn efficiency savings in the last five years and predict we’ll save another £0.9bn in the next five. This is at a time when HMIC recognises policing is under significant stress from rising demand, and reported crime that is increasingly complex with force budgets due to fall in real terms over the next three years.”

The inspectorate did not fully assess Greater Manchester police because of the extra strain they were under after the Manchester Arena terrorist bomb attack in May.

