U.S. growth will shrink 5% in the next quarter and the coronavirus outbreak will “probably” lead to a recession, Goldman Sachs said.

The investment bank’s economic research team, led by Jan Hatzius, said economic activity would “contract sharply” for the rest of March and April as consumers and businesses cut back on spending. They expected a recovery after April, though that was uncertainty, but said their new forecasts “probably” met the criteria for a recession.