2020 Illinois & Ohio Primary Preview

UPDATE 7:07 PM: A judge has slapped down a last-minute gambit by Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) to postpone the elections until June, and Ohio will vote as planned tomorrow. The other three states had already resolved to go forward with voting under any circumstance.

This week, there are downballot primaries in both Illinois and Ohio, in addition to Presidential contests in those states, along with AZ and FL. Poll closing times are as follows in ET:

7 – FL || 7:30 – OH || 8 – IL || 10 – AZ

Flip over for the full preview!

Illinois:

IL-Sen (R): Republicans have a primary for the Senate race.

Dick Durbin

Incumbent Dick Durbin (D) is seeking a fifth term. The longtime #2 Democrat in the Senate, Durbin has not been a particularly big national presence but is known as one of the biggest behind the scenes powers in the Dem caucus. Durbin dabbled with retirement both this cycle and last, before ultimately deciding to run again. Though he is more of a populist-leaning establishment liberal, he is on decent terms with the Democratic base and has not been seriously challenged from the left, and the deep-blue lean of his state means that he has not faced a serious general election challenge either. This year seems unlikely to be much different. Five little-known and underfunded Republicans are running in the primary, with three of them running serious enough campaigns to deserve a mention.

Mark Curran

Ex-Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran (R) is the only candidate in the field who has held elected office. Curran is a former Democrat turned moderate Republican who served twelve years as Sheriff for the large, increasingly blue-leaning suburban county covering most of Chicago’s outer northern suburbs. Curran lost his bid for a fourth term two years ago by just over 100 votes, jumping into the race to take on Durbin after a months-long recount concluded. Curran has most establishment support for this race, but his fundraising has been poor at barely $100K. As a result, he could even have trouble getting past his little known rivals in the primary, who are generally running to his right.

Peggy Hubbard

Retired cop Peggy Hubbard (R) is actually the best-funded Republican in the race, though her hauls of under $150K are still poor. Of African-American descent, Hubbard has a compelling biography: A Naval veteran and cop who was shot in the line of duty, she also has an interesting story of ending her plans to have an abortion moments before going through with it after seeing her ultrasound. Hubbard has been most notable in this race for potentially violating state and federal law after she bragged that she brought a gun into a school for a campaign event. Hubbard later backtracked, saying she only brought in ammunition, and as there is no evidence of the act, she will not face legal consequences. She straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism. However, her statewide name recognition and establishment support are still very low.

Tom Tarter

Urologist Tom Tarter (R) is running as a staunchly antiestablishment conservative. With some self-funding, his fundraising has made it into the low six figures. Tarter has some institutional support from antiestablishment corners of the party, particularly from downstate. He has been going scorched-earth on Curran, accusing him of being soft on crime and insufficiently supportive of Trump.

In the primary, Curran’s name recognition in the Chicago area likely makes him the favorite, but Hubbard or Tarter could prevail as well.There are also two non-serious Republicans in the primary, who could potentially win a fluke on scattered votes.

Willie Wilson

2015/19 Chicago Mayoral candidate Willie Wilson (I) is also in the race as an Independent. Wilson is one of the most interesting minor figures in politics; he has built several businesses, including a chain of McDonald’s franchises, despite a 7th-grade education and language skills that might be generously described as unpolished. Wilson also has among the most unusual political philosophies, with a pro-business centrism on fiscal issues coupled with radical borderline-Black-nationalism on cultural issues. Wilson’s Mayoral campaigns were serious efforts, particularly in 2015 when he garnered wide support among the Black community as the only serious Black challenger to then-incumbent Rahm Emanuel (D). However, his race here seems to be non-serious as he has not raised or self-funded anything substantial. That said, his name recognition may net Wilson a significant number of votes.

Overall, this field of “C” to “D” list challengers should not pose any threat to Durbin, who is the very definition of an entrenched incumbent in a Safe seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

IL-1 (D): IL-1 is a black-majority D+28 seat gerrymandered from poor urban areas of the inner South Side of Chicago in a long line southwest to middle-class suburbs and exurbs east of Joliet.

Bobby Rush

Incumbent Bobby Rush (D) is seeking a fifteenth term. Rush was a leader of the Black Panthers in his youth, and spent several months in prison on a weapons charge in the 1970s. However, since his political career began in earnest in the 80s on the Chicago council, Rush has been a mainstream liberal in office. His nearly three decades in Congress have given him a reputation as mostly an establishment liberal backbencher in DC, and his constituent services have generally been criticized as lethargic. However, Rush remains a key powerbroker in the South Side’s machine back at home. He has faced multiple primary challenges from younger Democrats, including from a State Senator named Barack Obama in 2000, but has turned them all back. Rush’s warchest is tiny for an incumbent at under a quarter million, but he retains the vast majority of local institutional support from the area’s powerful machines. This year, Rush faces two serious young political novice challengers from his left.

Robert Emmons

Nonprofit exec Robert Emmons (D) has worked for the Obama Foundation. Emmons has received significant buzz for his youth at age 27, being alive for less time than Rush has been in this seat. Emmons is running to Rush’s left as a bold progressive, and has significant support from left-wing groups like Our Revolution. He has had mediocre but credible fundraising in the low six-figures, and received a somewhat surprising endorsement from the generally-centrist Chicago Tribune. However, Emmons does not seem to have much machine support from the powerful local establishment, and his name recognition is poor.

Sarah Gad

Law student Sarah Gad (D) has an interesting biography despite her young age at 32. Gad was a medical student, but was injured in a car accident at the hands of a drunk driver, became addicted to prescription drugs, and spent time in jail for drug offenses before turning her life around and attending University of Chicago Law School. She is running on a platform straddling the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive, with a focus on addiction issues. Aided by modest self-funding, Gad has had mediocre fundraising in the low six-figures, though enough to run a credible campaign. However, her name recognition and institutional support are poor.

There is also a non-serious Democrat in the race. Overall, Rush’s incumbency and establishment support likely makes him a fairly strong favorite for renomination. However, Emmons in particular is a serious enough candidate to have a small outside chance at an upset. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

IL-3 (D): IL-3 is a D+6 seat stretching a stripe along the Stevenson Expressway (I-55) from outer suburbs between Joliet and Bolingbrook through much of Chicago’s southwest suburbs, and including a tail to diverse urban neighborhoods just southwest of downtown.

Dan Lipinski

Incumbent Dan Lipinski (D) is seeking a ninth term. A former professor and congressional staffer, Lipinski began his career as an Heir Force General in epic fashion. His father Bill (D), who represented the seat before him, retired after the 2004 primary so that local insiders could name his son the new Democratic nominee (and presumptive general election victor) – in spite of the fact that Dan was parachuting into the district from Tennessee to run. Since entering the House, Lipinski has carved out a niche as the last true remaining Congressional example of the 20th-century blue-collar Labor Democratic tradition, fiscally liberal and socially moderate to conservative. Though Lipinski has generally toed the party line on most fiscal issues, his cultural conservatism has become increasingly out of step with the new #woke trend in the party, and he prevailed by just 2% in the primary two years ago. Lipinski is a genuinely conservative Democrat on those issues instead of paying lip service, as he is openly pro-life and voted against Obamacare, positions that have won him unusual crossover outside support this year from the GOP-allied pro-life group SBA List. However, in the broader context, Lipinski’s cultural views are a politically strange position for someone who has never faced a competitive general election in a liberal-leaning district. Lipinski has survived through his tight connections with the area’s machines; he has remained in the local establishment’s good graces, in spite of his conservative voting record. He retains particularly strong support from blue-collar unions, a big force in the heavily blue-collar district, and has a strong 7-figure warchest.

Marie Newman

Consultant and 2018 nominee Marie Newman (D) is mounting a second bid against Lipinski after falling short by just 2% last cycle. As in her bid two years ago, Newman is running as a fairly standard-issue bold progressive on both economic and cultural issues. Once again, she has been a favorite of national progressive forces, with a who’s who of national endorsers including Emily’s List, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and AOC. Unlike two yeras ago, when she struggled with mediocre local machine support, Newman has also more or less matched Lipinski’s support on the local level this year. She has tapped into Chicago’s growing network of ideological progressive yet machine friendly Dems, with her biggest endorsement this year coming from Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D). Newman has also once again used the national left-wing grassroots to garner gangbusters fundraising, with her $1.7M warchest outpacing Lipinski’s by nearly a half million. Newman would seem to be in very good position to give Lipinski a strong challenge again this year, especially with higher Presidential turnout likely to bring out more left-wing voters. However, her path is complicated by another candidate taking on Lipinski.

Rush Darwish

Businessman and Dem operative Rush Darwish (D) is a former small-town TV news anchor who now runs a media production company. He is straddling the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive, a bit right of Newman but well to the left of Lipinski. Darwish has what would be in an ordinary race very good fundraising of $800K, aided by modest self-funding, but that pales in comparison to Newman’s warchest. He also lacks Newman’s name recognition from two years of campaigning or her establishment support. Thus, Darwish seems a longer-shot to come out on top, but he will likely draw a significant number of anti-Lipinski votes at Newman’s expense.

There is also a non-serious Dem in the race. Overall, vote-splitting between Newman and Darwish likely leaves Lipinski a very slight favorite, though it is also very possible that Presidential liberal turnout and her stronger connections to the local establishment this year could allow Newman to pull the upset. Three Republicans are running, but Will County commissioner Mike Fricilone (R) is the likely GOP nominee. The GOP establishment has been unanimously backing him in order to defeat the GOP’s neo-Nazi 2018 nominee, who is running again. Fricilone has served on the county board for eight years and is running as an establishment conservative. However, he has not seriously fundraised and is unlikely to be any sort of threat to the Democratic nominee in the general, despite the only medium-blue tint of the seat. That said, Fricilone may get a second look from national Republicans if Lipinski loses the primary. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

IL-6 (R): IL-6 is an R+2 seat carving a “C” through the wealthiest pockets of Chicago’s western suburbs, from Barrington, wrapping around Elgin, and then going southeast to Wheaton. Initially drawn as a GOP vote sink, it has moved left massively in the Trump era.

Sean Casten

Incumbent Sean Casten (D) is seeking a second term. An independently-wealthy executive at a renewable energy company, Casten picked up this historically-Republican seat on the GOP wave. He has been an establishment liberal in his first term, with an upscale social liberal emphasis. Casten is well-prepared for this race with a $3M warchest, which may be necessary as he will likely face a credible challenger. Two Republicans are vying to take him on this year.

Jeanne Ives

Ex-State Rep. and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Jeanne Ives (R) represented a chunk of this seat for six years before mounting an unsuccessful primary challenge to unpopular then-Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) in 2018, coming within 3% of toppling the incumbent. Ives was known as a staunch ideological conservative in the legislature, and staked her campaign in that race on grassroots anger with Rauner’s social moderation. However, don’t let that history fool you into thinking her an unpolished far-right candidate. Ives has a compelling biography in her own right as a veteran and West Point grad, and is a well-spoken, polished pol. She has moved somewhat toward the center for this race from her antiestablishment 2018 campaign, now straddling the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism. Befitting the donor-rich district, Ives has fundraised very well for this race, with gross hauls of nearly $1M. Ives has also mostly made her peace with the party establishment, as she has collected the majority of institutional support.

Jay Kinzler

Surgeon and 2016 candidate Jay Kinzler (R) is mounting a second bid for this seat. A kidney transplant surgeon who has also served on the elected board of a local park district, Kinzler took about a third of the vote in a primary challenge to then-Rep. Peter Roskam (R) four years ago. He then notched a respectable loss for a Dem-friendly State Rep. seat two years ago. Kinzler is running as an establishment conservative and attacking Ives for not backing Trump in the 2016 primary. Kinzler’s fundraising has been mediocre, raising about $150K, a bit over half of which is due to self-funding. He has a modest amount of name recognition and institutional support, particularly from the party’s more moderate flank.

Overall, Ives should be a strong favorite for the GOP nomination barring an unexpected surge of moderate enthusiasm for Kinzler. This seat has trended strongly left in the Trump era, and Casten is a decently good fit for the seat’s upscale sensibilities. Ives’s polarizing 2018 campaign makes her a somewhat less than ideal candidate for this purple seat, but she is still a skilled candidate who has been fundraising very well. Thus, Casten seems likely to start the general as a strong, though not prohibitive, favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

IL-7 (D): IL-7 is a Black-plurality D+38 seat covering downtown Chicago and poor neighborhoods of the city’s entire West and a small part of the South sides. The seat also includes the wealthy limousine liberal suburb of Oak Park and the slumburb of Maywood to the west.

Danny Davis

Incumbent Danny Davis (D) is seeking a thirteenth term. Davis is an archetypal machine pol who has been in office continuously since the late 1970s. He has been a backbench progressive in the House, and has dabbled with retirement on several occasions before continuing to run. Davis’s biggest notability in his congressional career has been his strange history of close ties to miscellaneous unsavory figures, including Louis Farrakhan and Sun Myung Moon. Davis’s warchest is tiny for an incumbent at around $300K, but he does retain strong institutional support from the district’s powerful local machines. However, that profile as a machine hack has left some room to his left in a seat with a large and growing far-left base, and there are three Democrats vying to take him on this year.

Kristine Schanbacher

Attorney Kristine Schanbacher (D) is by far the best-funded of Davis’s challengers, surprisingly outraising the incumbent with gross hauls of nearly $400K. Schanbacher works for the corporate megafirm Dentons, but touts her extensive pro bono work on lawsuits for #woke pet causes. Schanbacher is running as an upscale wokescold, far-left on cultural issues and an establishment liberal on fiscal issues. That platform may not be as bad an idea as it seems at first glance. Despite this seat being plurality-Black, it has a large population of very rich, very high turnout, and very SJW-friendly White voters around downtown and in the limousine liberal inner suburb of Oak Park – voters who are likely already predisposed to vote against Davis. Schanbacher could thus potentially win by running up the score massively among Whites.

Anthony Clark

Teacher and veteran Anthony Clark (D) is an Air Force veteran who also runs a small left-wing nonprofit. Clark is running as a far left candidate, especially on cultural issues; he received buzz (pun intended) for throwing a marijuana-themed campaign event several weeks ago. Clark has strong institutional support from far-left corners, including backing from the Democratic Socialists, Our Revolution, and two far-left Chicago councilors. Clark also has the endorsement of the Sun-Times. He has had mediocre but credible fundraising in the low six figures.

Kina Collins

Nonprofit exec and Dem operative Kina Collins (D) is a 29-year old perhaps best-known for resigning her post on the campaign of now-Gov. JB Pritzker (D) in 2018 when tapes of Pritzker making racially insensitive remarks surfaced. Collins now works for a pro-single-payer healthcare activist group, and is unsurprisingly running on a bold progressive platform with some far-left tendencies. Collins has had mediocre but credible fundraising and has a modest amount of institutional support, including endorsements from a legislator and a Chicago councilor.

Overall, vote splitting between his three challengers likely make Davis the substantial favorite for renomination. Schanbacher’s fundraising would leave her the best positioned to capitalize on the incumbent’s weakness, but she likely has little appeal to the non-White community, while Clark and Collins have been splitting support from left-wing minority interests. However, there is a slight chance one of his three challengers could catch enough fire to pull the upset, most likely Schanbacher by running up the score with Whites. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

IL-8 (D): IL-8 is a White-plurality D+8 seat covering the slumburb of Elgin and a mostly middle-class and diversifying swath of Chicago’s northwest suburbs around Schaumburg, extending east to O’Hare Airport.

Raja Krishnamoorthi

Incumbent Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) is seeking a third term. A former Obama campaign staffer, Krishnamoorthi has been a backbencher in his two terms straddling the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive. Krishnamoorthi has unanimous establishment support and a 7-figure warchest.

Krishnamoorthi has a somewhat serious primary challenge this year from anaesthesiologist Inam Hussain (D). Hussain is an immigrant who is running to Krishnamoorthi’s left as a progressive. However, Hussain has many weaknesses: he lives far outside this district in Libertyville, he has not quite fundraised enough to run a credible campaign, and he has little name recognition or establishment support.

There is also a totally non-serious Democrat in the race. Overall, it would be surprising if Krishnamoorthi did not win the primary easily, though Hussain may draw a significant vote share. Though it is only a medium-blue, Republicans are shamefully not contesting this seat at all. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

IL-11 (D): IL-11 is a White-plurality D+9 seat covering the diverse mostly-slumburby cities of Aurora and Joliet, connected by a thin and convoluted tail through more middle-class areas around Bolingbrook.

Bill Foster

Incumbent Bill Foster (D) is seeking a sixth full term. A professional research physicist with a Harvard PhD, Foster has also built a large theater-lighting supplier business. Foster won a GOP-leaning seat in a 2008 special election before losing in the 2010 wave. He was able to return to congress when this seat was created in the 2012 gerrymander. Foster has generally been a mainstream liberal in Congress with some mild moderate tendencies. He has fundraised well, with a 7-figure warchest, and has the vast majority of Democratic establishment support. However, this area has a not-insignificant left-wing base, and Foster’s relative moderation has left opening for a challenge from his left this year.

Will County commissioner Rachel Ventura (D) has served two years on the county board representing a Dem-heavy district around northern Joliet. She is running to Foster’s left as a bold progressive with some far-left tendencies, and has significant institutional support from left-wing groups, including Our Revolution and the Nurses’ Union. However, Ventura has not translated that support into funds, as she has not raised enough to run a credible campaign. Thus, she does not seem a significant threat to upset Foster, though her name recognition may give her a significant vote share.

Krishna Bansal

The nominee will likely head to a general with zoning board member Krishna Bansal (R), who is favored over a non-serious Republican in the primary. Bansal is an Indian immigrant who runs a technology business. He has strong GOP establishment support for this race, and is running as a moderate conservative. Bansal’s fundraising has been mediocre to good by the standards of the long-shot race, with gross hauls around $200K with modest self-funding. He could potentially make the race competitive if Dems somehow nominate Ventura or Foster makes an unforced error. But the lean of the district, especially in a Presidential year when the district’s heavily-minority Dem base will likely turn out in force, means this race still seems a bit off the edge of the playing field. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

IL-14 (R): IL-14 is an R+5 seat essentially coextensive with the western Chicago exurbs, wrapping a “C” from west of Waukegan past Elgin and Aurora and finishing west of Joliet. This seat was drawn as a GOP vote sink but has moved left in the Trump era.

Lauren Underwood

Incumbent Lauren Underwood (D) is seeking a second term. Underwood touts her Registered Nurse credential (though she has a nursing degree, she has never practiced clinically) and previously served as a low-level official in the Obama administration HHS department. Her 2018 win was one of the bigger upsets of the wave, as a napping incumbent and a strong leftward trend in this district combined to give her a surprise victory. In her first term, Underwood has compiled a surprisingly progressive record for a Trump-district Dem, generally toeing the party line on all major Dem policy priorities and by some measures ranking among Congress’s most left-leaning members. Underwood is well-prepared for a tough re-election fight with a $3M warchest, which she will likely need as she is certain to face a tough race this year. Six serious Republicans are vying to take her on.

Jim Oberweis

State Sen. Jim Oberweis (R) is one of the state’s best known political figures. Oberweis owns a large regional dairy business and eponymous chain of fast food stores that have given him ubiquitous name recognition in the area and massive wealth. His political career has met with more uneven success, however. Oberweis started as a perennial candidate in the 2000s, racking up five consecutive self-funded losses for Senate, Governor, and this House seat from 2002 to 2008 before finally being elected to a GOP-friendly Aurora-area State Senate seat in 2012. Oberweis than notched a sixth loss with an unsuccessful run for the US Senate in 2014. Unsurprisingly, he has self-funded massively in this race as well. His $1M in self-funding makes him by far the best-funded candidate in the field. Oberweis has decent institutional support in this race as well, collecting a significant number of endorsements and raising a surprisingly strong half-million from donors. That donor funding may be presenting him problems though, as primary rivals have accused Oberweis of running a scheme in which he transferred money from his state account to other local campaigns in exchange for those campaigns donating to his congressional account, a setup which seems questionable at best. He has generally been known as an antiestablishment conservative in his prior campaigns and legislative service. In spite of his wealth and large number of campaigns, Oberweis’s candidate skills are generally considered mediocre to poor, and he has had some minor foot-in-mouth moments. Additionally, his campaigns generally come down on the side of spending more rather than spending smarter, saturating the airwaves with mediocre ads. His massive advantages in name recognition and funds make Oberweis the front-runner for the primary, but three other credible Republicans are in the race.

Ted Gradel

Investor Ted Gradel (R) touts his history as a former college football kicker for Notre Dame before a career as a commodities investor. Aided by modest self-funding, Gradel has fundraised very well with a warchest of nearly $1M, and his $650K in donor hauls top the field on that metric. He is running as an antiestablishment conservative and has a modest amount of institutional support. Weirdly, Gradel seems to be running mostly on state-level issues like property taxes and against Mike Madigan – perhaps hoping to draw attention to his rivals’ positions in the legislature. Gradel has been hit for one big skeleton in his closet though – he was involved in running an unlicensed Florida stem-cell clinic where three patients were blinded by quack treatments.

Sue Rezin

State Sen. Sue Rezin (R) has served a decade in the legislature. Rezin lives outside the district, and her legislative seat is mostly located well outside it in rural central Illinois; however, she does represent a small chunk of this district’s southwest corner. Rezin is an establishment conservative with some moderate tendencies, and has arguably a plurality of institutional support, particularly from the more establishment-friendly side of the party. Rezin has been running a scorched-earth campaign against Oberweis and Gradel, hitting Oberweis on his campaign finance issues and Gradel on the clinic issue. Aided by $200K in self-funding, Rezin has a good warchest of a half million.

Catalina Lauf

Trump administration official Catalina Lauf (R) has received considerable national buzz and writeups in national conservative publications for her youth at age 26 and Guatemalan heritage. Lauf worked as a manager at Uber before becoming a low-level appointee in the Trump Commerce department. She has received praise for her stump skills and well-produced campaign ads. though the buzz has not translated into a meaningful amount of institutional support. Lauf straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism, and has had mediocre to good fundraising of around a quarter million. Though Lauf trails her rivals in funds, her compelling biography could allow her to surprise.

Jim Marter

Ex-Kendall County GOP chair and 2016 Senate candidate James Marter (R) primaried GOP incumbents from the right in the last two cycles. Marter first took 30% in a quixotic challenge to Sen. Mark Kirk (R) in 2016 before taking roughly the same amount against Trump-skeptical Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) in the neighboring IL-16 two years ago. Marter, who now runs a small business after a career as a corporate executive, is known as a staunch Trumpist and antiestablishment conservative, and is reprising that platform for this race. His quixotic runs against Kirk and Kinzinger may give him name recognition, but they have not endeared him to the GOP institutional groups. Marter’s fundraising for this race has been poor, barely enough to run a credible campaign, and he seems likely to finish toward the middle or back of this field.

Jerry Evans

Businessman Jerry Evans (R) owns a private music-lessons school. Evans is running as a hardcore antiestablishment conservative, with a strong Trumpulist bent. He has had poor fundraising, barely enough to run a credible campaign. Evans could draw a significant number of votes from anitestablishment conservatives, but has little name recognition or institutional support and is thus a long-shot.

There is also a non-serious Republican in the primary. Overall, Oberweis’s name recognition and funds likely make him the slight front-runner, but Gradel, Rezin, and even Lauf all have solid chances to prevail as well. The general election is likely to be one of the year’s most competitive. Underwood seems the quintessential fluke wave-baby, and this seat is likely to remain Republican on the Presidential level. However, the most likely GOP nominees may have baggage for Underwood to exploit. Overall, so far there is no clear favorite in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

IL-15 (R): IL-15 is a very rural R+21 seat covering most of the state’s southeast quarter, stretching from Danville south to Metropolis. It also includes a small chunk of the outer eastern St. Louis suburbs. For one of the few safe GOP seats in such a large state, this race is remarkable for just how little interest it has attracted, with just two serious GOP candidates despite this area’s massive GOP bench.

Mary Miller

Farmer Mary Miller (R) is perhaps better known as the wife of first-term State Rep. Chris Miller (R), with whom she manages a large family farm. Miller straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism with a cultural conservative emphasis. She has had good but not great fundraising of a little under $300K, and has some institutional connections from her husband’s campaign and legislative service.

Darren Duncan

Vermilion County Treasurer Darren Duncan (R) has served over a decade in local office, being capped by three years as county treasurer for the county covering Danville. A farmer by trade, Duncan is running as an establishment conservative. He has raised little from donors, but self-funded nearly $200K for a mediocre-to-good warchest overall. Duncan has a modest amount of name recognition and institutional support, particularly around his home area.

There are two other candidates on the ballot who have not raised enough to run credible campaigns. Overall Miller seems a slight favorite over Duncan, but the race could go either way. With two rather unexceptional candidates, this race certainly seems like it was a pretty big missed opportunity for a bigger name on downstate Illinois’s GOP bench to take a Safe seat in Congress. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

Illinois also has two competitive House general elections without seriously contested primaries.

IL-13: IL-13 is an R+3 seat covering the urban cores of Springfield, Decatur, Champaign, and Bloomington, plus a few second-ring suburbs northeast of St. Louis, connected by a swath of rural territory south and east of Springfield.

Rodney Davis

Incumbent Rodney Davis (R) is seeking a fifth term. A former congressional staffer, Davis is an establishment conservative in the House with some slight moderate tendencies. He has generally specialized in lower-profile and more technical projects, rising to become ranking member of the low-profile but powerful Administration Committee. This seat was gerrymandered to be a swing district, and Davis has generally faced competitive races in each of his four elections. However, Davis has proven a strong campaigner, beating back serious challenges on multiple occasions and amassing a warchest of over $2M for this year’s race.

Betsy Dirksen Londrigan

Davis is facing a rematch with 2018 nominee Betsy Dirksen-Londrigan (D), who will beat a non-serious far-left candidate in the primary. Dirksen-Londrigan is mounting a second bid after falling short by under 1% two years ago. She is a former staffer to Sen. Dick Durbin (D) who has benefited from her ties to Durbin’s network. Those connections and her close 2018 loss have given her gangbusters fundraising, with her hauls of $1.7M placing her among the best funded House challengers nationwide, despite the relatively donor-poor district.

Both Davis and Dirksen-Londrigan have proven themselves strong candidates, and this seat has a large college population around Urbana-Champaign that means it has not trended right as rapidly as much of the rural Midwest. Thus, the race seems likely to be highly competitive. However, as Dirksen-Londrigan could not close the deal against Davis amid the 2018 wave, Davis likely starts as a slight to moderate favorite this time. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

IL-17: IL-17 is a D+3 seat covering the urban cores of Rockford, Peoria, and Rock Island-Moline, connected by rural territory in the state’s northwest corner.

Cheri Bustos

Incumbent Cheri Bustos (D) is seeking a fifth term. Bustos picked up this gerrymandered seat in 2012 thanks to the strength of her establishment connections, particularly with the network of Sen. Dick Durbin (D), a longtime personal friend. An establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies, Bustos has been considered a rising star and leadership prospect in the Dem caucus, becoming chair of the DCCC for this cycle. She was not seriously challenged for re-election in 2016 or 2018. However, this seat is trending rightward quite rapidly, like much of the rural and small-town-industrial Midwest, and was carried by Trump in 2016. Thus, Republicans have recruited a credible challenger to Bustos this year.

Esther-Joy King

Attorney Esther-Joy King (R) previously worked as an aid worker in Afghanistan before going to law school. She is running as an establishment conservative with some moderate tendencies, and has had good but not great fundraising of around $350K; she also has a decent amount of institutional support. King’s early fundraising suggests she is a serious candidate, but she is so far relatively little-known. There is also a non-serious Republican in the primary.

In the general, King is a credible candidate and this seat is likely to continue to trend right. However, Bustos’s incumbency and high profile and the historically-Dem nature of the district seem likely to leave her a fairly strong, though not quite prohibitive, favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

Ohio:

OH-1 (D): OH-1 is a gerrymandered R+5 seat covering the western 2/3 or so of Cincinnati and its western suburbs, plus Cincinnati’s northeastern exurbs around Lebanon, with the two portions connected by a thin tail designed to minimize exposure to D-leaning suburban areas north of the city.

Steve Chabot

Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) is seeking a thirteenth term. Chabot is considered an establishment conservative with a fiscal conservative focus. Though not one of the caucus’s most visible members, Chabot is one of the longest-serving members of the House GOP. He has been quietly climbing the committee ladders, despite his service being interrupted by an upset loss on the 2008 wave before regaining his seat in 2010. This seat was gerrymandered to be significantly more Republican-friendly in 2012. However, a leftward trend in suburban areas gave him a close race in 2018, and two credible, well-funded Democrats are seeking to take him on this year.

Kate Schroder

Nonprofit exec Kate Schroder (D) is a former congressional and Cincinnati government staffer who subsequently worked in Africa with the Clinton Foundation. Unsurprisingly, she has cultivated sterling establishment connections. Schroder has the lions’ share of local institutional support, including big endorsements from Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley (D), whom she served as a staffer, and the Hamilton County Democratic Party. She is running as an establishment liberal with mild bold progressive tendencies, and has fundraised very well with hauls of over $700K.

Nikki Foster

GE executive and veteran Nikki Foster (D) has a compelling biography as an Air Force Academy graduate and Afghanistan veteran of Filipino descent. Befitting Democratic donors’ fondness for veterans, she has fundraised well with hauls of a bit under a half million. Foster is running as an establishment liberal and has a modest amount of institutional support, including backing from the liberal veterans’ group VoteVets. However, in both fundraising and establishment connections, her marks are well short of Schroder’s.

Overall, Schroder’s better funding and connections likely make her a moderate favorite in the primary, though Foster is certainly running a serious enough campaign to pull the upset. In the general, this suburban- and urban-heavy seat is one of the few Midwestern areas where Democrats seem likely to make gains, and both Schroder and Foster seem strong candidates. However, this is still a GOP-leaning seat overall and Chabot is a strong incumbent who has faced tough races before. Thus, Chabot looks likely to start the general as a moderate favorite in a competitive race. CW is that win or lose, the race will be Chabot’s last, as this seat is more likely than not to be turned into a Dem-leaning district in 2022 due to the state’s new anti-gerrymandering laws. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

OH-3 (D): OH-3 is a D+19 seat covering most of urban Columbus and some inner suburbs, with a scraggly shape gerrymandered to generally include the most Dem-heavy parts of the metro.

Joyce Beatty

Incumbent Joyce Beatty (D) is seeking a fifth term. A former legislator who inherited her seat from her husband, Beatty rose to become Minority Leader in the State House. After terming out of the legislature, she won a crowded primary for this newly-drawn seat in 2012 in a mild upset. Since entering Congress, Beatty has been a largely backbench establishment liberal with a fiscal liberal focus and some very slight moderate tendencies. She has strong connections with the local establishment, and is particularly tied to the network of still-powerful ex-Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman (D). Beatty is well-funded with a seven-figure warchest. However, she has received some criticism for alleged conflicts of interest between her husband’s position on a local zoning board and real estate interests she and her husband have held. Additionally, with Columbus’s status as an increasingly hip city with a growing upscale left-wing base, Beatty’s establishment liberalism has left room to her left in the primary, and she is facing a serious challenger this year.

Morgan Harper

Nonprofit executive Morgan Harper (D) is a former staffer for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau who works at the large national community-development nonprofit LISC. She has received buzz for her youth at age 36, and has fundraised massively for this race, with hauls of nearly $700K. She is running on a far-left ideology, notably calling for slavery reparations. Harper has strong institutional support from far-left groups, including the Democratic Socialists. However, she has little support from the more local-level establishment and no prior name recognition.

Overall, Beatty’s incumbency and local connections, combined with the high turnout of the Presidential primary (which should give less power to high-turnout ultra-wokesters) should leave her a moderate favorite. However, Harper’s massive fundraising and the growing gentrified far-left base in the seat could give her a real opening to pull the upset. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

OH-4 (D): OH-4 is an R+14 seat covering a broad swath of rural west-central Ohio around Lima and Urbana, plus a gerrymandered tail to the northeast covering purple to light-blue areas around Fremont and Elyria.

Jim Jordan

Incumbent Jim Jordan (R) is seeking an eighth term. Jordan has been one of the House’s foremost antiestablishment conservatives. He has long been a lightning rod and thorn in the side for both Democrats and establishment Republicans, particularly as leader of the Freedom Caucus. Jordan’s seat, based in conservative rural areas of the west-central part of the state, was made somewhat less Republican in redistricting in 2012 by adding an arm into more liberal areas west of Cleveland. Though the seat is still safely Republican, Jordan’s lightning rod reputation has been catnip for donors to his challengers, and three surprisingly well-funded Dems are squaring off in the primary to take him on.

Shannon Freshour

The three challengers are all very well funded from national liberal donors, but none are politically established in the area and all seem long-shots against the deep-red lean of the seat. Thus, none have really attracted a large amount of outside enthusiasm or institutional support and seem closer to the status of grifter-candidates (though they are all running serious campaigns) than real contenders to flip the seat. Paralegal Shannon Freshour (D) is running as an establishment liberal and has raised an impressive warchest north of $400K for the race. Warehouse manager and veteran Jeffrey Sites (D) is running as a populist moderate, and has also fundraised well with a warchest of a quarter million. And former congressional staffer Mike Larsen (D) has also worked as a stand-up comic and a writer for major TV shows, including Ellen and the Drew Carey show. He is running as a bold progressive and has had mediocre fundraising of around $150K. There is no clear favorite in the primary and any of the three could win.

Ex-Shelby County GOP chair Chris Gibbs (I) is also running as an Indie on a vague centrist platform, and may draw a few anti-Jordan votes in the general. However, this is an inelastically and deeply Republican seat, and it’s hard not to see Jordan coasting to an uneventful re-election. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

OH-13 (R): OH-13 is a D+7 seat covering most of the Youngstown-Warren metro area, plus a tail to the west covering Alliance, Kent, and the white-majority urban parts of the Akron area. It was gerrymandered as a Dem vote sink but now trending toward competitive territory in the Trump era.

Timothy Ryan

Incumbent Tim Ryan (D) is seeking a tenth term. Ryan is a former congressional staffer who is known for his close ties with the labor movement; he ousted an incumbent in the 2002 primary through his labor ties. Ryan is known as a fiscal liberal, but has historically been moderate on cultural issues, a good fit for this quintessentially blue-collar district. However, he abruptly moved left in the last few years as he pursued a vanity Presidential run this cycle. The timing would not seem to be great for a leftward metamorphosis on Ryan’s part, as this seat, drawn as a Dem vote sink, has been stampeding rightward in the Trump era. Thus, Ryan seems likely to face his first competitive re-election race in a decade this year, as Republicans have recruited a credible challengers.

Christina Hagan

Ex-State Rep. and 2018 OH-16 candidate Christina Hagan (R) is a 31-year-old who served eight years in the legislature from the Canton area, outside this seat, before an unsuccessful bid for OH-16 in the primary two years ago. Hagan is known as a dedicated Trumpulist, preaching a fusion between antiestablishment conservatism and populism even before 2016. Though that position is right of the seat’s median voter, it is not a terrible fit for this seat. Thus, her potential candidacy attracted significant GOP interest and she entered the race at the filing deadline after considerable wooing from GOP institutional forces. Her fundraising has been mediocre at $100K, though she has been in the race for only about 10 weeks. Though she has significant assets, her late start, mediocre fundraising, and carpetbagging could open the door for her primary rival.

Lou Lyras

Businessman Lou Lyras (R) was in the race before Hagan’s entry, and his lifelong residency in the parochial district could be an asset. He has not fundraised significantly from donors, but has self-funded $100K, enough to basically tie Hagan’s overall haul. He is also running as a conservative populist, but with a somewhat milder brew on both fiscal and cultural issues than Hagan’s full-throated antiestablishment populist conservatism. However, Lyras has little name recognition or establishment support.

There are also 5 non-serious Republicans in the race. Overall, Hagan’s higher name recognition should make her a substantial favorite, though there is a chance Lyras could pull the upset. Assuming Hagan is nominated, the race seems likely to be at least somewhat competitive. This seat is still Democratic-leaning, but likely to trend even further to the right this year. Hagan is a credible candidate, and Ryan’s vanity Presidential campaign could provide her with a wedge issue for crossover voters. However, Ryan’s longtime incumbency and the lean of the district still leave him as a strong, though not quite prohibitive, favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

There are also three Ohio races without competitive primaries worth an incidental mention.

Mike Turner

OH-10: OH-10 is an R+4 seat covering Dayton and most of its suburbs, along with a tail to rural areas to the east.

Desiree Tims

Incumbent Mike Turner (R) is seeking a tenth term. Turner is a former Dayton Mayor and establishment conservative. Despite his long tenure, he is mostly a backbencher in DC. However, Turner has built a strong local brand that has led him to mostly keep away serious challengers despite the only light-red nature of this district.

This year, Turner is facing a challenge from congressional staffer and former Obama White House aide Desiree Tims (D), who should beat a non-serious candidate in her primary. An establishment liberal with some mild progressive tendencies, the 31-year old Tims has bounced through a number of staffer positions in DC for the last decade, including as a staffer to Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Those ties have given her solid connections and establishment support for this race. However, Tims has not translated those connections well into fundraising, as her mediocre hauls of under $200K seem short of the fundraising pace she would need to put the race on the board against an entrenched incumbent in Turner. Thus, for now this race seems a bit off the edge of the playing field. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

Troy Balderson

OH-12: OH-12 is an R+7 seat based in Columbus’s northern and northeastern suburbs, along with tails to the east to Zanesville and to the north to the Mansfield-Ashland area.

Alaina Shearer

Incumbent Troy Balderson (R) is seeking a second full term. An establishment conservative former state legislator, Balderson prevailed by a razor-thin margin of under 1% in a hotly-contested special election at the height of Democratic #resistance enthusiasm in early 2018, and won a hard-fought general several months later by a slightly larger margin.

This year, Balderson’s likely challenger is businesswoman and former journalist Alaina Shearer (D), who should beat a non-serious candidate in the primary. Shearer could have name recognition from her prior career as a local radio newscaster. She is running as an establishment liberal with a cultural liberal focus. However, her mediocre fundraising of under $200K so far seems short of what would be needed to put this medium-red seat on the board. Thus, for now the race seems a bit off the edge of the playing field. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

David Joyce

OH-14: OH-14 is an R+5 seat covering the northeast corner of the state, including Cleveland’s outer eastern suburbs and exurbs, northeastern Akron suburbs around Stow, and the northeast corner of the state around Ashtabula.

Hilary O’Connor-Mueri

Incumbent Dave Joyce (R) is seeking a fifth term. A former prosecutor, Joyce is a backbench establishment conservative in the GOP caucus, but nevertheless one of its most consistent overperformers. Though this seat was quite swingy at a presidential level early in the decade, Joyce has locked it down well as it has trended rightward, beating back well-financed challengers by large margins. His 10-point win last year was the closest of his three re-election races, all against credible challengers.

Joyce’s challenger this year is attorney and former fighter pilot Hilary O’Connor-Mueri (D). O’Connor-Mueri has a compelling biography as a former Naval aviator, and is running as an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies. However, she is carpetbagging back to her childhood home in this district to run after living most of her adult life abroad and in California. GOP attempts to make an issue of that backfired slightly though, when an attempt to call out O’Connor-Mueri for allegedly voting twice a decade ago revealed she did not actually vote in multiple jurisdictions. O’Connor-Mueri’s bigger problem is her mediocre to poor fundraising of only around $150K, which so far seems short of what is needed to put the race on the board against an entrenched incumbent in Joyce. Thus, for now the race still seems off the edge of the playing field. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

IL Local Elections:

Cook, IL-DA (D): The biggest local race is probably the DA primary for Cook County. Cook County is the nation’s second largest, with a population of 5.2M. It covers Chicago, all its first-ring suburbs, and large areas of second-ring and outer suburbs to the south, north, and northwest. Incumbent Kim Foxx (D) is seeking a second term. Foxx ousted an incumbent four years ago in the primary on a left-wing soft-on-crime platform, and has since mostly made her peace with the powerful local machine while pursuing soft-on-crime initiatives. However, she has been most notable as DA for her going particularly soft on one defendant: Jussie Smollett, whom she left off with a slap on the wrist for his hate crime hoax. This year, Foxx is facing a serious challenge from prosecutor and veteran Bill Conway (D). Conway is running as a more mainstream establishment liberal. His biggest asset in the race is his father, the billionaire founder of the private equity firm Carlyle Group. The senior Conway has backed his son with a cash infusion of over $7M, which has made Conway into Foxx’s main challenger despite his lack of name recognition or connections. Polls show there is no clear favorite in the race. Two other anti-Foxx challengers, ex-Chicago councilman turned perennial candidate Bob Fioretti (D) and attorney and prosecutor Donna More (D), have not received much traction but may make it marginally harder for Conway to oust the incumbent.

Illinois County Executives: Six large counties in Illinois are holding County Executive (or the roughly equivalent position of Board Chair) races of note this year.

Will, IL-CE (D): Will County is a D+2 county of 690K covering most of Chicago’s outer southern and southwestern suburbs and some exurbs, centered the city of Joliet. The seat is open as longtime incumbent Larry Walsh (D) is retiring.

State Sen. Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant (D) has represented parts of the Joliet and Bolingbrook areas in the State Senate for eight years. Bertino-Tarrant was previously the elected county schools superintendent, giving her countywide name recognition. She has been a backbench establishment liberal in the legislature, and is known as particularly close with unions, which have given her strong support in this race. Bertino-Tarrant released a poll a few weeks ago showing her leading the primary by a large margin.

Bertino-Tarrant’s rival is CE Larry Walsh (D) CoS Nick Palmer (D). Palmer has been a top staffer to Walsh for most of the latter’s four terms in office. Unsurprisingly, he has his boss’s endorsement as well as significant support from Walsh’s allied network of local Dems. He seems to be running as a moderate liberal, a bit to the right of Bertino-Tarrant, but neither candidate is running a particularly ideological campaign. Palmer has fundraised well, but his name recognition is still short of Bertino-Tarrant’s.

Overall, Bertino-Tarrant seems likely to be a moderate favorite in the race, but an upset is possible. Local police chief Nick Ficarello (R) is the GOP nominee. Ficarello is a career cop who was appointed a small-town police chief after his retirement. He is running as a moderate conservative with a focus on fiscal responsibility. Democrats have generally marginally overperformed the presidential baseline in Will County; combined with the stronger candidates on the Dem side, that suggests either Dem will start the general as a mild to moderate favorite in a competitive general election.

Kane, IL-CE (D): Kane County is a rapidly-left-trending D+3 county of 535K. It covers much of Chicago’s west-central exurbs, including the cities of Aurora and Elgin and a broad swath of exurban territory around them. This seat is open as incumbent Chris Lauzen (R) dropped his re-election bid after the filing deadline.

A pair of Democrats are facing off. School board member Corrine Pierog (D) has lost two runs for State Senate in a GOP-leaning district in 2012 and 2016. Pierog also serves as a local Democratic party official. She is running as a moderate liberal on a technocratic platform and has significant establishment support. Her rival is Teamsters’ Union official Greg Elsbree (D), who unsurprisingly has strong backing from labor interests, particularly blue-collar unions. There is no clear favorite in the primary.

County Treasurer David Rickert (R) is the GOP nominee. Rickert filed to challenge Lauzen, who has had some minor ethical scandals and foot-in-mouth moments, in the primary, but became the nominee by default when Lauzen dropped out. With the leftward trend in the county, the general election with either Dem nominee is likely to be highly cmpetitive.

Winnebago, IL-CE (R): Winnebago County is an EVEN county of 285K covering Rockford and most of its suburbs. The seat is open as incumbent Frank Haney (R) is retiring after a term marked by feuds with the county board. Haney was so antagonizing to the board that it has stripped the chair’s office of most of its power. The candidates this year are mostly running on a wing and prayer to hope that the board will restore much of the office’s power.

Two Republicans are running. Rockford councilman Joe Chiarelli (R) entered the race before Haney dropped his re-election bid. Chiarelli is running as a mainstream conservative and has the majority of institutional support from the county’s GOP. County commissioner Jim Webster (R) has represented the county’s rural northwest corner for a decade and a half. He seems to have less institutional support than Chiarelli but could potentially prevail by running up the score in more rural parts of the county. Overall, Chiarelli seems a moderate favorite for the nomination.

County commissioner Burt Gerl (D) is the Dem nominee. Gerl has represented a district in southern Rockford for two terms. Gerl seems to be running as a mainstream liberal, but appears to have not yet really launched his campaign organization. Republicans have historically somewhat overperformed the Presidential baseline in the county, which is also trending somewhat to the right, so the GOP nominee will likely start as a very slight favorite in a competitive race.

Three other counties do not have contested primaries.

McHenry, IL-CE: McHenry County is an R+5 county of 310K covering Chicago’s generally upper-middle-class northwest exurbs. Incumbent Jack Franks (D) is seeking a second term. A former longtime legislator for two decades, Franks was generally among the most moderate Democrats in Springfield. He is generally fiscally conservative and has maintained a strong level of GOP crossover support. Thus, in spite of having a deep GOP bench in the very-historically-Republican county, the GOP will be running a political newcomer this year. Businessman Mike Buehler (R) runs an industrial equipment business, but has low name recognition and few connections. In a left-trending county, it seems likely Franks’s strong personal brand will let him start as a significant favorite for a second term.

Madison, IL-CE: Madison County is a right-trending R+5 county of 265K covering the generally middle- to lower-middle-class northeastern suburbs of St. Louis. Incumbent Kurt Prenzler (R) is seeking a second term after ousting an incumbent in 2016. Prenzler is a CPA who generally has run on fiscal conservative issues. He has implemented a modest tax cut as chair, but has been known for some minor foot-in-mouth moments, most notably comparing a county official to ISIS. Prenzler’s rival is elected local schools superintendent and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Bob Daiber (D). Daiber was an afterthought in the gubernatorial election last year, but has won countywide office as superintendent and is a credible candidate here. He is running as an economic populist. Prenzler is likely a slight favorite due to the county’s rightward trend, but the race will be competitive.

St. Clair, IL-CE: St. Clair County is a very-historically-Dem but right-trending D+3 county of 260K covering the extremely poor urban basket case of East St. Louis, arguably the nation’s worst ghetto, and most of St. Louis’s generally lower-middle-class southeastern suburbs. This is a boring race as incumbent Mark Kern (D) is totally unopposed for a fifth term.

Specials, etc:

There are also a trio of legislative specials this week in Pennsylvania.

PA-LD-8 is a rural R+24 seat around Grove City, where I-79 and I-80 cross. Attorney Tim Bonner (R) should be a prohibitive favorite over businessman Phil Heasley (D) in one of the most thoroughly Republican regions of the state.

PA-LD-18 is an R-held D+3 seat around Bensalem in Philly’s blue-collar White dominated inner northeast suburbs. Funeral director and Heir Force Col. KC Tomlinson (R), daughter of the area’s State Senator Tommy Tomlinson (R), will face off with plumber Harold Hayes (D). Both sides have been targeting the race and there is no clear favorite.

PA-LD-58 is an R+16 seat in coal towns and exurbs southeast of Pittsburgh, including Monessen, West Newton, and Jeanett. Carpenter Eric Davanzo (R) should be a moderate favorite over ex-Smithton Mayor and veteran Robert Prah (D), but this area is very historically-Dem before Trump and an upset may be a slight possibility.

I will finally say a few words about an election Thursday in the South Pacific. Vanuatu is an Island nation in the South Pacific of 275K, about 1000 miles northeast of Australia and the same distance west of Fiji. The roughly 80 islands comprise a total land area slightly smaller than Connecticut, spread out in an area roughly 500 miles north-south and 100-miles east-west. It is a lower-middle-income country, with an economy based on fishing, tourism, and offshore finance. The population is almost entirely indigenous Melanesian. The 52-member parliament is elected by Single Non-Transferrable Vote in multi-member constituencies. Vanuatu somewhat surprisingly has a huge number of parties, and the leading party historically gets only a little over 10% of the vote. I can’t do a whole lot to handicap these races as there is little information available.