Russia has long jockeyed against Saudi Arabia, a member of OPEC, to be the world’s top oil-producing nation. Although the Saudis have more production capacity and vastly more reserves, Russia is pumping more oil. And if oil and natural gas are considered together, Russia is the largest energy-exporting nation.

Which country is in first place for oil at any given moment depends on how the Saudis wield their swing production capacity, the cushion of unused wells and pipelines the Saudis can turn on to tamp down global prices. As the biggest OPEC member, Saudi Arabia is the cartel’s enforcer and enabler, with the power to influence global prices or to moderate global disruptions by how much of its production capacity it chooses to put to work.

If the Saudis open the valves during periods of instability, Russia falls into second place as a producer  but still makes a healthy profit off higher prices.

Russia has little incentive to invest in spare capacity  in part because being outside the OPEC cartel gives it less direct ability to influence prices through the ebb and flow of production. If anything, a large idle capacity by Russia would work against its financial interests  by acting as market insurance, and thus holding prices down  during periods of instability in the Middle East.

Russian officials also say that spare capacity is too hard to maintain in their far northern country. Most of its current production comes from wells in Siberia that would freeze solid in the permafrost if not kept running. And the Russians will probably argue the new fields they plan to open in Arctic waters will be so expensive to drill that it would be unwise to later shut them down.

“They are producing flat-out on a permanent basis,” Didier Houssin, the director of energy markets and security at the International Energy Agency in Paris, said via telephone.