By Adnan Khan

The capture of Aleppo is the biggest victory Bashar al-Assad has achieved since the uprising began and the heaviest blow it has dealt the rebel groups. The global media has reported this development as the beginning of the end of the battle for Syria whilst the propaganda machine from Russia continues to spew out information that al-Assad occupies most of the country and is therefore the legitimate leader. For the people of Syria who rose up half a decade ago to remove the regime in Damascus and the rebel groups who took up arms, they now face an uphill struggle to maintain the uprising and achieve their dreams of real change. Despite the regime victory in Aleppo the rebels are down, but not out.

The rebels in Aleppo held onto East Aleppo for 4 years when it suddenly collapsed in a matter of weeks. Central to the collapse was the lack of coordination amongst the different rebel groups due to various rifts and differences. The rebels saw much success in the early years of the uprising as they fought the regime as a guerrilla force via a decentralised structure across the length and breadth of the country. This overstretched al-Assad’s forces who eventually gave-up reclaiming the north of the country as it lacked the capability to do so. For the past two years al-Assad pursued a policy of siege and local truces to force surrenders. All of this benefited the regime immensely as it was able to tackle being overstretched and the truces in almost all cases involved rebel forces moving to Idlib, where they are all worryingly now gathered and which will be the regimes next target. The rebels need to coordinate their attacks and unify into a cohesive whole if they are to succeed. In the battle for Aleppo none of the other rebel groups attacked the thinly defended regime positions in the rest of the country, neither did the rebel groups in Idlib — which is just 35 miles away! Coordination is now central to any future success.

Despite the Ba’athist regime running a police state for decades, the rebels proved the regime and its armed forces were hollow. Once the people took to the streets and challenged the regime and its security apparatus, and despite al-Assad loyalists resorting to brutal tactics, the rebels were able to overstretch them which severely handicapped their effectiveness. Through attacking regime supply lines al-Assad was forced to give up much of the country. Whilst the victory in Aleppo has tilted the balance in al-Assad’s favour the fact remains that the regime in Damascus lacks the manpower to win the battle for the country. Now a new phase of the conflict begins, one in which the regime attempts to consolidate its gains. This style of warfare works in the favour of the rebels as they can revert to insurgent tactics, something they have shown to be very proficient at. The regime now controls 40% of the country which includes the major cities and their surrounding areas, this is likely going to be the time the rebel groups force the regime to defend its territory and bleed it to death.

[pullquote align=”right” color=”” class=”” cite=”” link=””]Now a new phase of the conflict begins, one in which the regime attempts to consolidate its gains. This style of warfare works in the favour of the rebels as they can revert to insurgent tactics, something they have shown to be very proficient at[/pullquote]

The abandonment of the people and rebel groups in Aleppo should now make it clear to all that the regional nations and international powers who, for long, stated they supported the people, is a complete lie. In their most critical hour and despite previously receiving weapons from both regional and international powers they were abandoned by them. The reason for this is none of them share the goals the people of Syria have of toppling the regime and bringing real change to the country. The US and much of the west has always stated the institutions of the country have to remain in place, with or without al-Assad. This is why negotiations over the country have always been about rebels entering into negotiations with the regime, not replacing it. The regional nations have never supported the aim of ending of the regime, despite their rhetoric. Even when it came to physical support, the weapons necessary to make a difference have never been provided.

The final stand, in all likelihood, will take place in Idlib and preparations are already being made for this by the regime, Russia and Iran. All the truces that have taken place have led both civilians and the rebels to move to Idlib. The province has the most powerful concentration of rebels numbering somewhere between 30,000 — 50,000 fighters. The governorate is almost entirely under control of the rebels, bar a small pocket outside Idlib city. It was from Idlib the original siege of Aleppo was broken in August 2016 and this will probably be the last bastion of the rebels. Rebel groups will need to use this time to heavily fortify the governorate and key areas and ensure no weak points can be exploited by the regime loyalists.

There is a long way to go in this battle for Syria and despite the immense fire power the al-Assad regime is being provided with by both Russia and Iran it took an immense concentration of troops over a year to succeed in Aleppo. Despite their few numbers, the capable rebel groups were able to extract a huge price for al-Assad to gain Aleppo. The regime is now in the process of attempting to occupy it, which will leave it open to guerrilla attack. The loss of Aleppo is a major setback but there is some way to go for the rebels to be down and out, and for the moment the rebels are fighting to the end in their dream for real change.