By: Grayson Skweres

(@squaresy9)

The draft is fast approaching, which means trade season will soon be getting underway as well. Most executives say the days right after the draft mark the beginning of the “trade season.”

The Astros are an interesting case, as they lead the AL West but have some obvious flaws. Rumors and names like Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels have people drooling at what this club could do. Personally, I’m not an advocate of trading for either of those two guys and I’ll give you the reasons why. I’ll also give you some names that I think the Astros should pursue after I breakdown the Hamels and Cueto situations.

Cole Hamels

Aside from Hamels’ top of the rotation ability, people are intrigued by his contract. Hamels is in the fourth year of a 7-year $159M deal with a few option years tacked on the end. The Astros would owe Hamels roughly $24M per year over the next four years. Compared to aces on the free agent market, that’s not bad. In fact, it’s fantastic.

However, Ruben Amaro Jr. wants a kings ransom in return for his prized left hander, and he isn’t worth the price tag. The Phillies wanted highly touted catching prospect, Blake Swihart, and more in return from the Red Sox this summer, and there’s no reason to believe the price has gone down at all. What would an acceptable deal from the Phillies point of view look like?

HOU Receives: Cole Hamels, Cash

PHI Receives: Preston Tucker, Vince Velasquez, Tony Kemp, and probably a PTBNL

Yeah, I’ll pass on that, and that still might not be enough to please Ruben Amaro and Ed Wade.

Johnny Cueto

As much as I’m not for Cole Hamels, I’m even more against Johnny Cueto.

Similar to Hamels, the issue is not the talent. Cueto is a perennial Cy Young candidate, but this is a severe case of wrong place, wrong time.

General managers do not like trading midseason for impending, superstar free agents. Here’s why:

Johnny Cueto will command around $200M in free agency. If you don’t think so, look at this comparison to Felix Hernandez. I will be using ERA+ to compare the two statistically. ERA+ factors in the ballparks pitchers pitch in. 100 is league average. Anything above 100 is good and anything below 100 is bad.

Hernandez signed a 7-year $175M deal. He was two years away from entering free agency and was coming off of two seasons of ERA+’s of 124 and 121. He signed his deal at the age of 27 after eight professional seasons.

Cueto is entering free agency, coming off of a season in which he had an ERA+ of 161. He’s in the midst of a season in which he enjoys an ERA+ of 133. He’s 29 years old and is in the midst of his seventh Major League campaign.

Putting things in layman’s terms, both pitchers are good, and Cueto’s peripherals are even better than Hernandez’s. Considering the fact that Cueto could be seen as better than Felix Hernandez, who signed a $175M contract, could already give him that extra $25M to get to $200M. Then there’s that really annoying thing called free agency in which other teams (I’m looking at you Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox) can overpay to get guys.

So why give up a prospect package for a half year of Johnny Cueto when Cueto probably won’t make the Astros a World Series favorite? You shouldn’t.

Also, under the rules of baseball’s CBA, players that are acquired by trade during the season cannot be offered arbitration in order to gain draft pick compensation. Sorry, he’s not going to be wearing an Astros uniform this summer.

So if the Astros shouldn’t trade for Cueto or Hamels, then who should they trade for?

Two names that have been linked to the Astros are Mike Leake and Scott Kazmir.

Scott Kazmir

Houstonians like Kazmir because he’s a local product, and he’s in the middle of a career renaissance of sorts. He’s also in the final year of a 2-year $22M deal.

While he will hit free agency this upcoming offseason, the fact that he’s from Houston and that he isn’t considered an “ace” makes a Kazmir trade palatable.

Kazmir had an ERA+ of 106 in 2014. Throughout the early stages of 2015 he has an ERA+ of 123. Those numbers should help allay the concerns of those that think he won’t be able to make the transition from the pitcher friendly O.Co Coliseum to the more hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.

Kazmir reminds me a little bit of a left handed Collin McHugh, although Kazmir might be a tad better. Both are close in ground ball percentage and both have around the same percentage of softly hit baseballs.

Kazmir will also be going from playing with a team that has the worst defense in baseball to playing for one of the better defensive supporting casts.

Mike Leake

Mike Leake intrigues me. He’s a free agent after this year as well, but many believe he could be had on the cheap this offseason. He’s only 27 and was the eighth overall pick in the vaunted 2009 draft that produced the likes of Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor, Jacob Turner, and Drew Storen to name a few.

Some of the peripheral numbers that I like don’t show him well, but others lend me reasons for optimism. 2014 lent him an ERA+ of 98 and so far in 2015 he has an ERA+ of 88. This isn’t great, but going from the smallest park in baseball to Minute Maid Park will still help.

Leake ranks 20th in the MLB with a 52.4% ground ball rate. Houston’s analytic and shift heavy defense should help more of those grounders turn into outs. He also has a hard hit ball percentage of only 25.9%, which gives him the 28th best in that category, placing between Mets starters Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey in the standings.

Leake is young, which means he could improve. He adds depth to the rotation, he won’t command much prospect wise. Sounds alright to me.

I’ll be writing a piece with some more players that the Astros could target after the conclusion of the MLB Draft, but this lays a solid foundation as to what the Astros plans should be this summer. Who do you think the Astros should trade for? Do you think I’m nuts for not wanting Hamels or Cueto? Tweet at me @squaresy9 and tell me what you think.