Wyoming Cowboys Head coach: Bohl (22-29, fifth year) 2017 record and S&P+ ranking: 8-5 (53rd) Projected 2018 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-5 (72nd) Five key points: Losing a top-10 draft pick at QB is supposed to be deadly for a mid-major program, but good news: Wyoming’s offense already stunk last year! That actually is good news, as the defense that carried the Cowboys to eight wins returns almost everyone, and the offense almost literally can’t get much worse. It’s all about establishing the run: if experience at RB and stability on the line produce more consistency, a new QB will have favorable downs and distances. The defense got a few lucky turnover bounces that should disappear, but down for down, the Cowboys will be every bit as effective in 2018. Wyoming is the projected favorite in eight games and, with a home win over Boise State, might again become a MWC Mountain challenger. Bohl’s program is almost self-sustaining at this point.

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You can win in Wyoming. You just can’t do it twice in a row.

At least, you couldn’t. Craig Bohl’s got a way of defying heuristics.

The last time Wyoming had enjoyed two straight good seasons was 1998-99, when Dana Dimel led the Cowboys to 8-3 and 7-4 campaigns. The last time the Cowboys had bowled in back-to-back years was 1987-88, when Paul Roach took them to 21 wins and two Holiday Bowls.

Since then, aside from the run put together by Joe Tiller and Dimel — which somehow included only one bowl despite five winning seasons — it’s been up and down:

7-5 in 2004 under Joe Glenn, then 19-28 over the next four years

7-6 under Dave Christensen in 2009, then 3-9

8-5 under Christensen in 2011, then 9-15 the next two years

Bohl doesn’t work in short bursts. He builds machines. He inherited a pretty good Division II program from Bob Babich at North Dakota State, needed about three years to build a sturdy FCS program and about another four to make it a wrecking ball. After going 43-2 from 2011-13 with three straight national titles, it was time for a new challenge. So he came to Laramie.

Bohl stripped Christensen’s team to parts in 2014. He went 6-18 in his first two seasons while figuring out the depth to turn Wyoming into the MWC’s NDSU.

The first breakthrough came in 2016, when an exciting young quarterback (Josh Allen) leaned on a pair of awesome skill guys (1,800-yard rusher Brian Hill and 1,300-yard receiver Tanner Gentry) and a strong, young line to surge from 104th in Off. S&P+ to 33rd. The Cowboys won the MWC Mountain crown thanks to a thrilling home win over Boise State and bowled for the first time in five years.

With the departure of Hill, Gentry, and most of the rest of the skill corps in 2017, it was time for a stumble. Nope! Bohl finally had the talent to play the kind of defense he wanted to play.

The offense collapsed from 33rd to 119th, but the defense charged from 96th in Def. S&P+ to seventh. This happened despite the front seven leaning heavily on freshmen and sophomores and the secondary losing a key starter to a freak week-one injury. The tenor of Wyoming games changed almost completely. The Cowboys won three games while allowing 33 points or more in 2016 and lost four while allowing 24 or fewer in 2017.

But despite the personality overhaul, they led in the fourth quarter at Boise State in a game that would have won them their second straight division title. BSU came back, but UW then won the Potato Bowl to match 2016’s win total. Pretty incredible.

Last year’s UW tells us quite a bit about this year. The obvious story line is that the Pokes are losing a likely top-five draft pick at the most important position* and will therefore struggle, right? Maybe. Wyoming needs to find someone to take the reins, and in a short audition last year when Allen was hurt, senior-to-be Nick Smith didn’t wow anyone.

However, if there’s mere competence at QB, UW has everything else it needs. Last year’s super-green skill corps returns, the constantly shuffled offensive line returns almost everyone, and the incredible defense returns all but three or four pieces from the two-deep.

It’s looking more and more like Craig Bohl has done it again. If the Pokes win eight or more in 2018, we’ll know he has.

* As it pertains to Allen and the draft, I wrote a feature on the NFL ceilings these college QBs have . I think his live arm and physical skills would make him a fun third-round sleeper , a guy for whom everything might click after a couple of years as an understudy , despite his complete lack of stats . B ut for some reason , scouts and analysts have decided to anoint him a top-five pick, and I fear for him, seeing as how you usually end up having to play quickly when you’re a top pick. I’m putting this in small, asterisked font so it takes as little attention as possible away from a post about the incredible job Bohl is doing.

Offense

Brent Vigen has spent the last decade as Bohl’s offensive coordinator. The personality changes depending on the talent, but it usually revolves around a sturdy run game. In 2016, despite a breakout star at QB, the Pokes ran the ball 8 percent more than the national average on standard downs and 5 percent more on passing downs.

In 2017, they simply couldn’t run. Everything went off-script from there. Without Hill, and with a line that couldn’t keep the same five guys on the field — only two linemen started more than 10 games, and eight started at least one — UW imploded from 37th to 109th in Rushing S&P+.

Almost every RB carry went to a freshman (Trey Woods) or sophomores (Kellen Overstreet and Milo Hall), and while the Cowboys tried to keep the ball on the ground on standard downs (they still ran 3 percent more than the national average), those carries just didn’t go anywhere. It only resulted in passing downs.

Passing downs were Smith’s kryptonite as fill-in QB. In losses to Fresno State and a ghastly SJSU, Smith was a perfectly solid 21-for-35 for 275 yards (7.5 yards per attempt including one sack), but he went 16-for-34 for 127 yards (3.3 per attempt including two sacks). That killed virtually every scoring chance, and Wyoming scored just 24 total points in the two games.

Nothing guarantees Smith will figure everything out and fly, or that he’ll even hold off three-star redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal for the starting job. But there’s no question that this year’s starter will have a sturdier supporting cast and, in theory, fewer passing downs to manage.

It still takes a leap of faith to get too excited about this skill corps. You have to believe that with experience will come demonstrations of skill. Woods, Overstreet, and Hall produced almost no big plays in the open field even in rare open-field opportunities. Thanks in part to last year’s shuffling, six returning offensive linemen have combined for 116 career starts, and two backs have now combined for at least 125 career carries. But we don’t yet know the talent behind the experience.

While last year’s top eight targets return, only two averaged more than 11.9 yards per catch. Those two could be pretty dangerous in the right circumstances. Junior C.J. Johnson and senior James Price enjoyed a combined 66 percent catch rate and 9.2 yards per target in 2016’s dynamic attack but watched those numbers fall to 45 percent and 7.4 per target last year. If opponents are distracted by the run game, Vigen knows how to build off of that.

It took a spirited battle for Allen to take down Smith for the starting job in 2016. That theoretically says they were pretty close in their capabilities and that Smith could thrive. (Or that if Vander Waal beats him out, he’s pretty good, too.)

For a Vigen offense, “the right circumstances” pretty much means “a good run game.” The receiving corps is stocked with not only play-action threats like Johnson and Price, but potential possession options like Z-receiver Austin Conway and tight ends Tyree Mayfield and Austin Fort. Plus, JUCO transfer Raghib Ismail Jr. brings the bounciness and agility you would expect from his name.

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Defense

It wasn’t all Scottie Hazelton, but you can’t ignore the timing. Bohl’s former NDSU coordinator, who left Fargo for jobs at USC in 2012, Nevada in 2013, and with the Jacksonville Jaguars from 2014-16, rejoined Bohl in 2017, and the results were immediate.

Per the five factors, the Pokes’ defense improved across the board. They got a little more efficient and went from awful to great at both big-play prevention and red zone defense.

Success Rate: from 41.4 percent in 2016 (51st) to 38.8 (41st)

IsoPPP: from 1.45 points per successful play in 2016 (122nd) to 0.99 (fifth)

Field position: from creating an average field position of 30.9 for the UW offense (40th) to 33.7 (sixth)

Points per scoring opportunity: from 4.98 (111th) to 3.68 (14th)

Takeaways: from 27 (10th) to 38 (first)

There was luck in the turnovers — per national averages for fumble recovery rates and the ratio of interceptions to breakups, they probably should have forced about 24.5, not 38. But Wyoming’s turnovers obviously weren’t just about luck.

There were five excellent defenses in the MWC last year, and Wyoming’s might have been the best of all. And now the experience level is off the charts. Look out.

Wyoming allowed only 3.3 gains per game of 20-plus yards (11th in FBS) and gave up only seven 40-yard gains all year. The Pokes kept plays in front of them until they could leverage opponents behind schedule. Then they teed off. They ranked sixth nationally in passing-downs sack rate, and the two primary reasons — end Carl Granderson and tackle Youhanna Ghaifan (combined: 31.5 tackles for loss, 15.5 sacks, four forced fumbles — are back.

The only losses in the front seven are backup pass-rush specialist Nela Lolohea (four sacks) and strongside linbacker Jalen Ortiz (four TFLs). Wyoming survived relying on two sophomore linebackers (Logan Wilson and Cassh Maluia), a sophomore tackle (Ghaifan), and a zero-star freshman end (Garrett Crall) and now has a few more high-upside youngsters like three-star redshirt freshman end Victor Jones or three-star sophomore linebacker Ryan Gatoloai-Faupula to add to the rotation.

Safety play is vital to big-play prevention, especially when your linebackers are so young, and seniors-to-be Andrew Wingard and Marcus Epps not only fulfilled that role, but also made plays. They combined for 13 TFLs, nine INTs, seven breakups, and three forced fumbles, and nickel back Tyler Hall added another six passes defensed. They’re all back.

The biggest losses come at cornerback, where Rico Gafford and Robert Priester depart after combining for 14 PDs and five TFLs. But the return of junior Antonio Hull (2.5 TFLs and eight PDs in 2016) will mitigate part of that loss.

That leaves basically the only question mark on defense: No. 2 cornerback. Someone has to emerge from among sophomore Braden Smith and redshirt freshmen C.J. Coldon and Keyon Blankenbaker.

Special Teams

Freshman punter Tim Zaleski (99th in punt efficiency) struggled; you can perhaps blame overuse for that, as only two teams punted more than Wyoming last year.

The unit was otherwise as awesome as it was young, however. Cooper Rothe was automatic inside of 40 yards, and kick returner Tyler Hall was devastating, averaging 34 yards and scoring twice. They’re both back, as is a solid punt returner in Austin Conway.

2018 outlook

2018 Schedule & Projection Factors Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 25-Aug at New Mexico State 100 4.5 60% 1-Sep Washington State 41 -3.6 42% 8-Sep at Missouri 30 -12.1 24% 15-Sep Wofford NR 21.4 89% 29-Sep Boise State 26 -8.2 32% 6-Oct at Hawaii 122 11.0 74% 13-Oct at Fresno State 44 -8.1 32% 20-Oct Utah State 77 2.9 57% 27-Oct at Colorado State 95 2.8 56% 3-Nov San Jose State 129 20.9 89% 17-Nov Air Force 112 12.0 76% 24-Nov at New Mexico 111 6.9 66% Projected S&P+ Rk 72 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 122 / 18 Projected wins 7.0 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -6.7 (99) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 111 / 117 2017 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 24 / 8.9 2017 TO Luck/Game +5.8 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 78% (81%, 74%) 2017 Second-order wins (difference) 7.7 (0.3)

Losing a first-round NFL prospect QB can be devastating. Miami (Ohio) regressed for three straight years, from 13-1 to 2-10, after Ben Roethlisberger’s departure. Delaware went from 11 wins to four after Joe Flacco left.

Wyoming’s in a strange situation, though. Despite Allen, the offense stunk, and losing Allen can’t make it stink much worse. Meanwhile, a defense that carried the Cowboys returns almost everyone.

The Pokes probably won’t enjoy the same level of turnovers luck, but they might not need it. Despite being projected to fall from 53rd to 72nd in S&P+ (mainly because the defense was unsustainably good), UW is favored in eight games and projected to win an average of seven.

If last year’s luck reverses itself, or if it turns out there really isn’t a decent QB, it might be pretty difficult to produce a third consecutive division title challenge. But it appears Bohl’s work has begun to bear fruit, and the last time that happened, it didn’t stop for quite a while.

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