Polls: Sanders in 'statistical tie' in NH

Two new poll results this week suggest Bernie Sanders is gaining ground on Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire.

The WMUR Granite State Poll shows the senator from Vermont trailing the former secretary of state by 6 percentage points, close to the poll's 5.9 percentage point margin of error. The pollsters from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center call the race "a statistical tie."

A poll by Gravis Marketing on behalf of One America News Network places Sanders just 3 percentage points behind Clinton.

"This shows that the more people know about Bernie, the better they like him and his ideas about rebuilding the middle class and taking on the billionaire class," said Michael Briggs, spokesman for the Sanders campaign.

Tyrone Gayle, spokesman for the Clinton campaign, did not comment directly on the poll results but directed the Burlington Free Press to a Wednesday post by Washington Post politics blogger Philip Bump.

"This is actually relatively good news for Clinton, all things considering," Bump wrote of the Granite State Poll.

"It's the state next to the one that he's served on Capitol Hill for years," Bump continued. "If the Sanders Surge (trademark Washington Post, 2015) is going to overwhelm the Clinton barricades anywhere, it's here. This isn't what overwhelming looks like."

Despite Sanders' progress, Clinton still is viewed as the likely winner by 68 percent of respondents, compared with 17 percent who think Sanders will prevail.

The WMUR poll shows Clinton leading Sanders 42 percent to 36 percent. Vice President Joe Biden, who is undeclared, follows with 5 percent. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley and former U.S. Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia each garnered 1 percent. Three percent preferred some other candidate, while 12 percent were undecided.

Most of Sanders' gain in support came from excluding U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts from the July poll.

Warren says she has decided against running for president. In a WMUR poll in May, Warren received the support of 20 percent of respondents, compared with Clinton's 51 percent and Sanders' 13 percent.

The poll results were based on phone interviews between July 22-30 with 276 likely voters in the Democratic primary.

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, included Warren in its poll, yet results show Clinton's advantage over Sanders is just 43 percent to 39 percent. Warren received 8 percent, Biden 6 percent and O'Malley and Webb both 2 percent.

The margin of error was 4.5 percentage points, according to Gravis Marketing.

"Bernie Sanders is surging in New Hampshire and threatening to win this early state," Robert Herring Sr., CEO of One America News Network, said in a statement.

With 14 percent of the participants voting for two undeclared candidates — Warren and Biden — Herring said, "We may see a Sanders victory in New Hampshire."

The poll of 475 Democrats was conducted July 31 through Aug. 3.

Gravis Marketing received a C for accuracy of its polls, while the University of New Hampshire received a B, according to ratings by FiveThirtyEight. The ratings are based on historical accuracy of poll results and methodology, according to the polling aggregation website.

This story was first posted online on Aug. 5, 2015. Contact Paris Achen at 802-660-1874 and pachen@freepressmedia.com. Follow her at www.twitter.com/parisachen and https://www.facebook.com/ColTrends.

WWRU Granite State Poll results: https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_summer_demprim080415.pdf

Gravis Marketing poll results:

http://www.oann.com/pollnh/