Tour De France 2014 Preview

Come Saturday, the biggest annual sporting event begins in Yorkshire. The Tour de France is coming to town and cycling fans across the world are anticipating what will be a titanic battle with no one clear candidate to win outright.

Yorkshire have put a lot of promotion and a lot of effort into making sure that this is a success and, in spite of teams efforts, it seems likely it will be.

Why in spite of teams efforts? Well, one would think that, considering that this is the highest profile tour in the UK perhaps ever, that it will get more column inches at the start than any grand tour before or after but that the list of British riders who should be at the tour but aren’t (David Millar, Alex Dowsett, Bradley Wiggins and, arguably, Adam Yates, who would probably be a legitimate top 10 contender assuming he can cope with the strain of a grand tour and this is before you get to Sky domestiques who could be there) is the same length as those who are (Cav, Froome, Geraint Thomas and Simon Yates). It certainly strikes me that what should be the biggest rallying cry to get more British fans behind road cycling is being squandered by not having enough cyclists from Britain to go out and see.

And as for the British stages, they fall into two sprints in stages 1 and 3. Stage 1 ending in Harrogate is in existence for the sole reason of trying to make sure Mark Cavendish gets the yellow jersey. This year, like last, contains the holy trinity of modern day sprinting - Cavendish, Griepel and Kittel. All are in form and, unlike last season, Cavendish doesn’t have a Giro in his legs with Griepel having done the most riding so far this year. However, the issue is that Cavendish isn’t the fastest man in the world any more. Were Kittel not there, it’d be foolish to bet against Cavendish. But he is and, as seen in his Giro stage wins, it is Marcel Kittel that is the dominant sprinter in the world today. He may potentially not be the strongest sprinter come week three of the tour, but a fresh Kittel versus a fresh Griepel and a fresh Cavendish would win nine times out of ten, particularly considering that it is Kittel who has the best sprint train in the world.

Stage two is by far the most interesting of the British stages with climbs and fun galore with a big climb 5km out - it is a real classics style stage and likely to produce a great finish and, if GC contenders aren’t careful, potential ramifications for major stars if it breaks up the field. It is set up for a Cancellara or Sagan attack.

In terms of the GC, the other pre-mountain stage that will shake things up is the stage to the Arenberg with its large amount of cobbles sections which will affect some contenders (Froome in particular) and benefit those who regularly ride on cobbles (Valverde in particular). The other non-mountain stage that will have GC ramifications is the penultimate stage which is a 55km time trial that is also very hilly and will do severe damage to those poorer time triallers.

That is why the two main GC contenders are the two outstanding contenders - because of their superior time trialling abilities. Chris Froome, the 2013 winner comes in with a cloud over him after allegations about his TUE asthma inhaler use at the Tour of Romandie, a cloud darkened after inhaler usage resulted in a positive test for performance enhancing drugs in Italian rider Diego Ulissi from the Giro. Additionally, he suffered a bad crash at the Dauphine but, as the Tour is very much back loaded with mountains, this isn’t likely to have too much impact.

The second contender is Alberto Contador. A fixture of the tours biggest challengers for years, Contador comes into the tour in top form but with a team that is less so. Where Froome can call on fresh support riders in Richie Porte and Mikel Nieve, the biological passport issues of Roman Kreuziger have left Contador with support riders in Rafal Majka and Nico Roche who, while great riders, are also tired riders.

In terms of the second echelon of riders, while Joaquim Rodriguez would normally be a real each way shout, he has already admitted he is aiming at the Vuelta so, while he can be expected to go for a stage in the Pyrenees, he won’t make a GC impact. His time trialling would have let him down anyway.

Andrew Talansky wouldn’t have been a name on this list, but his win of the Dauphine shows he has the tactical nous to win a major event. While the tactical master stroke of that Dauphine stage wouldn’t transfer to a three week tour, it marks him out as a top 10 contender and as someone that has to be taken seriously. Alongside him in that “to be taken seriously, but not that seriously” is Tejay van Garderen who has started to return to something approaching decent form and who, if he can hang on in the mountains, can make an impact in the time trial and overtake riders and a return to the top 10, but not the top 3, is a fair bet.

That third place is likely a straight fight between Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde. Both are in a similar situation in that they both need a good result otherwise this will be the last time they ride a Tour de France as team leader as young guns in their teams take over in Fabio Aru and Nairo Quintana. Valverde is undoubtedly in better form and showed it in the spring classics but Nibali has recent grand tour winning form and, perhaps, the stronger team as well. Astana are likely to attack more than the other GC teams because of their depth of good riders so Nibali’s success perhaps relies on the form of chief deputy Jakob Fuglsang. If Nibali is protected and Astana are able to wear down other contenders, he can win the whole thing, but to do that, he would need to hope that Sky burn their team off in a stage, as they did in the early mountains last year. Valverde, on the other hand, will need to keep up in the mountains and beat Nibali in the time trial. That will be an intriguing battle.

In terms of the green jersey, it is Peter Sagan’s to lose. With Cavendish, Kittel and Griepel likely to split the flat stages between them and Sagan likely to be in decent places in both these and the four medium mountain stages, it is hard to see exactly how anyone could stop him if he stays fit, making the Champs-Elysses the big sprint prize of the tour.

Other teams have their contenders and their objectives. Belkin are primarily looking for a new sponsor so are likely to attack to get coverage and, while Bauke Mollema, Lars Boom and Laurens Ten Dam are all capable of a good result overall, all will be asked to go for it and try to get a stage win which will compromise any GC ambitions they may have. Orica Green-Edge, without a team time trial, will be out for stages only, which Simon Yates may be their best bet for. For Lotto, Juergen Van Den Broeck is in form but hamstrung by the fact that he is the lone climber in a team full of sprinters and the same applies for Kwiatkowski, although at least he has Tony Martin providing some support.

Speaking of Tony Martin, the parcours of that time trial make it almost an unofficial world time trial championship with Cancellara, Dumoulin, Froome and Contador in this hilly contre le montre.

The French challenge is led by Thibault Pinot of FDJ who can climb well but is hamstrung by awful descending and poor time trialling, but is capable of a top 10 finish on his day. As for Europcar, they bring the Giro-tired Pierre Rolland and the should-be-retired Thomas Voeckler. Finally, continental tour team Bretagne have no one for the GC but will attack often. The Schlecks are at the tour as well but it speaks volumes that a team containing both Frank and Andy are, in effect, led by a Time Trial specialist. Rui Costa, in his first tour as leader, is almost an unknown quality and has the class on his day, but not as a grand tour GC contender.

It is a tour that will be defined by its first days but won in its last. The tour in Yorkshire is a major event and a Cavendish win in the UK would be massive. But the biggest mountain stage and the vital time trial are in the last four days.

Three weeks of drama await. What’s a World Cup?