It’s amazing how quickly public opinion can turn on a player. Last year Kevin Hayes could do no wrong, aside from faceoffs. This year, he’s the worst player on the team and needs to be traded. I find this to be humorous, because these are not only opposite ends of the spectrum, but incorrect talent evaluations. It’s one made from subjectivity, not objectivity.

In reality, Kevin Hayes is just fine. Hayes has seen better performance in relative Corsi (up to 3.0 from 2.2 last season), shots on goal (on pace for 144 this season, to 111 last season), and assists (on pace for 30 assists to 25 last year). People are focusing on his seven goals, which is down from last year. But in reality, I think it’s just unrealistic expectations that are causing all this unwarranted hate.

Perhaps the biggest reason why Hayes will be fine is shooting percentage. Hayes shot a whopping 13% at even strength last year. That was a completely unsustainable number, and almost certain to regress this season. Well it has, and Hayes is now only shooting 8% at even strength this season. For those doubting the true effects of shooting percentage, perhaps you recall this season when the Rangers were shooting 20%, and then they went into the scoring funk in December? Yea, shooting percentage matters.

So Hayes is having a bit of tough luck so far. But Hayes, while a bit of a doofus –I mean that in a nice way– in interviews, is probably one of the smartest players on the ice. He uses his body to protect the puck and draw attention before setting teammates up. This shows up in the stats, as despite the low goal total, Hayes is still third on the team in points/60 at an even 2.00. Only Oscar Lindberg and Rick Nash are ahead of him. So while he’s not scoring goals, he’s making up for it by setting teammates up.

Perhaps the biggest concern is that Hayes is due for a raise, and that’s certainly understandable. The Rangers are in a precarious situation that will cost them someone they don’t want to lose. But when it comes to Hayes, he’s worth it. Here’s how he stacks up with players making 6% of the cap, roughly $4.3 million:

Hayes outproduces the league average at this cap range in less ice time, which I find to be amazing. Since the Rangers have all the leverage on Hayes, he won’t come close to this amount of money, but his production is certainly worth it. In the cap era, you need bargains, and Hayes will be a bargain at his next contract, no matter which way you slice it.

The vitriol towards Kevin Hayes is perplexing to say the least. While his goals are down, the overall production is still on par with what you expect from a second year pro. He is just fine now, and will be just fine for the rest of the year and beyond. Perhaps it’s time to focus the negative attention elsewhere.

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