Smith’s leadership chances fall to a 6% chance on Betfair following High Court ruling on who’ll be able to vote

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/762596287661412352

#Breaking Five new members of the Labour Party win High Court battle over right to vote in leadership election pic.twitter.com/zwwbh4M4lu — PA Media (@PA) August 8, 2016

FOR SALE: Spare vote in Labour leadership contest. One previous, careful owner. Unused. £25 o.n.o — Robert Harris (@Robert___Harris) August 8, 2016

If this judgment stands then all new Labour members who also signed up as £25 supporters will have right to claim back £25 from Labour. — Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) August 8, 2016

It is very hard to come to a view about what will be the electoral impact of today’s judgement. There is so much overlap between the new members who can now vote and those who signed up under the £25 registered supporters scheme.

Received opinion has it that this will help Corbyn and certainly that is how it has been taken on the Betfair market. Maybe that is correct – maybe it isn’t.

It is important to remind ourselves that there hasn’t been a members’s poll published since the nominations were finalised.

Earlier the anti-Corbyn campaign, Saving Labour claimed that half of those who had registered were opposed to the incumbent. My understanding is that this was based on the number of click-throughs going from their site to the LAB register page when it was open.

There are reports of another YouGov members’ poll being in the field though that might be outdated by the change in the selectorate created by this morning’s High Court judgement.

I certainly rate Smith’s chances at greater than 6%.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



Tweet