Jennifer Jacobs

jejacobs@dmreg.com

© COPYRIGHT 2016, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY

Ted Cruz sits atop the Republican pack in Iowa with just 19 days until the caucuses, but Donald Trump is just 3 percentage points behind, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

Over the last month, Cruz’s poll numbers have taken a 6-point hit as he confronts the crucible of being Iowa’s GOP front-runner, under attack from the Trump bazooka and the ethanol industry. But likely caucusgoers' opinions of the ultraconservative Texas U.S. senator remain sky high (76 percent view him favorably).

It has now been nearly five months since Trump has worn the crown of front-runner in an Iowa Poll. But a desire to disrupt the way government typically works is a major consideration for caucusgoers. And they see The Donald as a demolition agent.

“The final days of Iowa will be a dogfight,” GOP strategist Jeff Miller said.

Cruz has thus far decided not to attack his chief rival. That sets up the possibility that he’ll be fighting to the end with an arm tied behind his back, while Trump, the flame-throwing New York businessman, swings away.

In third place with likely GOP caucusgoers is Marco Rubio, with 12 percent, and Ben Carson is huddled close behind at 11 percent. Those are precarious perches, because a majority of their supporters say they could still be persuaded to support someone else, said Iowa Poll pollster J. Ann Selzer.

Everyone else is in single digits: Rand Paul at 5 percent; Jeb Bush, 4 percent; Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, tied with 3 percent; John Kasich and Carly Fiorina, tied at 2 percent; and Rick Santorum with 1 percent.

A majority of likely caucusgoers, 56 percent, could change their minds about their first-place choice or still do not have a first choice, the poll finds.

Rubio, a first-term Florida U.S. senator, is starting to settle in as the establishment favorite, strategists said. Bush, a former two-term Florida governor, is down 2 percentage points from the last Iowa Poll a month ago. Christie, the governor of New Jersey, has failed to make any gain in the horse race even though more likely caucusgoers are warming to him: A majority have a favorable view of him for the first time in any Iowa Poll this election cycle.

The big question is who comes closest to Rubio: Bush or Christie. Both governors could gain from a decent showing in Iowa, Miller said.

Time is running out for any of the low-polling candidates to make a big move, as Santorum did in 2012, when he surged in the final days to win the caucuses. A strong majority of those who voted for Santorum last time are now with Cruz, the poll shows.

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Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, and Santorum, a former Pennsylvania U.S. senator, both are hoping that the evangelical community will once again deliver Iowa for them, said Miller, who was campaign manager for former Texas Gov. Rick Perry until he dropped out of the presidential race in September.

“When they find out they're wrong, I expect they will get out of the race,” Miller said.

The Iowa Poll of 500 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 7-10 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

For Cruz to seal this deal, his best strategy is to persuade evangelical conservatives not to split between him; Carson, a retired neurosurgeon; Huckabee; and Santorum, strategists said.

While Cruz's lead of 10 percentage points on Trump in early December has whittled to 3 points, underlying data show Cruz to be well-positioned. The constitutional lawyer is the second-choice pick for more voters than any other candidate. And he attracts almost half the electorate when percentages of first- and second-choice preferences are combined, Selzer noted.

Rubio, despite the all-Marco-all-the-time TV commercials that dominate campaign advertising in Iowa, gained just 2 percentage points in the horse race and ticked up 2 points as well for second choice.

Trump's advantage comes among those who say their mind is made up. More of Trump’s supporters (64 percent) are concrete in their decision on whom to vote for on Feb. 1 than any other candidate’s voters.

There isn’t any strong “stop Trump” movement in Iowa. Of caucusgoers who say they’d “never” vote for Trump, just 5 percent say they’re motivated to prevent him from winning; 94 percent say they simply don’t support him.

The poll shows there’s not much GOP caucusgoers don’t like about Cruz: 94 percent like his constitutional stands (which has translated into bye-bye Rand Paul, strategists said); 78 percent like his Christian values; 62 percent like his opposition to legal residency for people living in the country illegally; and 60 percent like that he voted to stop bulk phone data collection.

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Negatives for Cruz are his votes to cut the military (80 percent dislike those) and his lack of foreign policy experience (60 percent dislike that). His desire to phase out a federal mandate that benefits the renewable fuels industry is bothersome to 42 percent.

Cruz may be boxed in tactically when it comes to attacks: 75 percent of likely caucusgoers view his decision generally to avoid criticizing Trump as a favorable trait.

But some strategists say if Cruz doesn’t take on Trump, he’ll spend the next four years regretting it, as a U.S. senator.

“This ‘being nice’ to Trump strategy of Cruz is how you get picked as vice president, not how you win an election,” said GOP operative Stuart Stevens, who helped lead Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign in 2012.

On the flip side, Trump’s central attack on Cruz so far — his legitimacy to be president given that he was born in Canada to an American mother — is a nonissue for most likely caucusgoers (83 percent).

Stevens said attacking Cruz for a choice his parents made is a silly attack, but it gives Cruz the perfect chance for a counter punch by asking if Trump is qualified to be president.

“Is a man who paid $100,000 to have the Clintons at one of his three weddings qualified to be Republican nominee? Does a man who knows more about wine than the nuclear triad qualified to be president?” Stevens said. “It is astonishing that we are this close to the caucuses and there is no sustained attack against Trump on the air.”

But Trump backers say they’ve tuned out criticism: They want to put a stick of dynamite in everything and watch it blow.

A desire to disrupt the way government typically works is a major consideration for 42 percent of likely caucusgoers and the single-most important consideration for an additional 6 percent.

Several told a reporter in follow-up interviews that it matters less whether Trump has a specific plan to rebuild than his prowess as disrupter in chief.

“A lot of it is a feeling. He’s hitting the spots. He knows what to say,” said Atlantic resident Valerie Robbins, a truck driver’s wife who has been experiencing financial struggles for the last few years.

Fully 71 percent say Trump would be more disruptive than Cruz (14 percent). Even a majority of Cruz supporters agree with that.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 500 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 503 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 3,391 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 503 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 500 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age— have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.