Twenty days out from the election, the Senate map chess-match is in full swing. Battle of wits over Senate 2014 map

National Democrats have gone dark in Kentucky but are pumping $1 million into Georgia. Republicans cut off their candidate in Michigan but are going big in North Carolina.

Twenty days out from the election, the Senate map chess match is in full swing, with both sides making wrenching decisions about how to spend limited pools of cash — bets that will undoubtedly result in Wednesday-morning quarterbacking on Nov. 5.


Here’s a look at what we’ve learned about the battle for the Senate from the parties’ spending choices over the past week.

Grimes will probably lose.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s $2 million worth of ad spending for Grimes ended on Monday, and the committee hasn’t booked more. Senate Majority PAC, the top Democratic outside group, also has no reservations. Both groups could still go back on TV if their internal polling showed the race tightening, or if Senate Majority PAC got a big infusion of outside cash.

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Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, the pro-McConnell super PAC, is spending $1.2 million this week and a similar amount next week. McConnell told National Republican Senatorial Committee officials at the start of the election cycle not to spend money on his behalf.

Eleven of the past 12 public polls have shown McConnell ahead, albeit often narrowly; a SurveyUSA poll last week, showing Grimes up 2 points, was an outlier. The sole debate of the race, on Monday night, produced no moment to change the underlying dynamic of the race.

Still, Democrats aren’t completely throwing in the towel. DSCC Executive Director Guy Cecil tweeted Tuesday night that he just wired $300,000 for get-out-the-vote efforts in the state.

Georgia has always been more winnable for Democrats than Kentucky.

The DSCC put $1 million more into Georgia Tuesday, specifically on Atlanta broadcast, to capitalize on internal polls that show Democrat Michelle Nunn taking a slight lead — and close to the majority she needs to avoid a January runoff.

( Also on POLITICO: DSCC still polling Kentucky race)

Though Grimes has always been a darling of the donor class, primarily because of how much they loathe McConnell, Kentucky is a deep-red state that Mitt Romney carried by 23 points two years ago, and taking out an entrenched incumbent was always a daunting undertaking.

Georgia, on the other hand, only went for Romney by 8 points. There is a large and growing African-American and Hispanic population, especially in the Atlanta metro area. Democrats believe the state is trending purple, possibly enough to capitalize this year in an open-seat race.

Republican David Perdue, a first-time candidate, is getting hammered for saying during a 2005 deposition that he’s spent his career outsourcing.

A SurveyUSA poll published Wednesday had Nunn up 3 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 45 percent, with Libertarian Amanda Swafford getting 3 percent. It’s the first time Nunn led in that poll.

Democrats are not cutting off any of their incumbents.

None of the four senators up for reelection in red states will be victims of triage. The DSCC raised $16 million in September and entered this month with $14.2 million in cash on hand, so it won’t need to write off any incumbent.

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The DSCC has not reserved time yet for an expected December runoff in Louisiana, on the grounds that Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu could still win outright in the November’s “jungle” primary. If the majority is on the line, neither side will have a hard time getting the resources it needs.

In 2010, Arkansas Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln was trailing by double digits in every poll. It was obvious she’d lose, and the party spent accordingly. This year, Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor trails in most public polls, but he’s kept it surprisingly close, and the national party continues to plow money into the state.

North Carolina is more winnable for Republicans than it looked last week.

After looking at fresh internal tracking polls, NRSC strategists decided Monday morning to drop another $6.5 million into the Tar Heel State. It was an unequivocal rejoinder to a stream of recent stories about Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan putting distance between herself and her Republican opponent, statehouse Speaker Thom Tillis.

Tillis spent weeks on defense over his education record in the Legislature. But lately, Hagan has been facing questions about federal stimulus money a company co-owned by her husband received and for missing an Armed Services Committee hearing that touched on Islamic State militants that occurred when she was attending a fundraiser.

Tillis trails narrowly in most public polls but he can win if support fades for a libertarian candidate who works nights as a pizza deliveryman.

Democrats argue that they benefit from reserving time much earlier. In the Charlotte market, for example, the DSCC in June paid $400 per gross rating point, the common measure for viewership; the NRSC is now spending an average of $606, according to a Democratic source tracking the air war.

The difference is more pronounced in smaller states with less capacity. Democratic buyers say the DSCC paid an average of $235 to reserve its time in Manchester, New Hampshire, in June and the rate is currently $1,579. In Denver, when the DSCC booked, it was approximately $560. Now it’s $1,780.

Michigan is off the map.

Republican Terri Lynn Land, a former secretary of state, has run what strategists describe privately as one of the weakest campaigns this cycle. With most polls showing her down in the high single digits, the NRSC canceled all of its remaining buys. The DSCC followed suit this week.

Land is spending only $90,000 on television this week, according to a Democratic source tracking the air war, compared with about $1 million of spending from Democratic Rep. Gary Peters.

This seat is opening with the retirement of Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, and the right candidate could have probably kept it in in play. But Peters is now the prohibitive favorite to win.

South Dakota is a real wild card.

National Democrats shook the political landscape by spending seven figures in the deep-red state that had been off the radar. Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson is retiring, and former Republican Gov. Mike Rounds was seen as the sure victor. But he’s run a lackluster campaign, struggling to raise money and refusing to go negative.

Democrats are now running ads highlighting a scandal surrounding a visa-for-cash program from when Rounds was governor. The NRSC decided to match the DSCC’s buy, a bow to the reality that the race is real.

Complicating everything is that this is a three-way race. Rounds currently leads in the high 30s, followed by Democrat Rick Weiland and independent Larry Pressler (a former Republican senator). The NRSC’s ad, which went up Tuesday, attacked both of them as rubber stamps for Obama.

Ultimately, Republicans are likely to hold the seat but operatives on both sides acknowledge they may wind up spending even more. And if the GOP loses in South Dakota, or Kansas, which is also suddenly competitive, then the majority will be that much harder to win.

Republicans have not expanded the map into states they had hoped to.

This has always been a favorable climate for the GOP. It’s the sixth year of an unpopular president’s administration and Republicans had hoped that 2014 would turn into a wave year. But so far, while Democrats are competing in Kansas and South Dakota and holding on in the South, Republicans are not in position to pick up any blue states.

Public polls have shown Democrats with solid leads in states like Oregon, Minnesota or Virginia (which is more purple), each of which generated a great deal of coverage earlier in the year. Now, neither national party is spending money in any of the three states. Freedom Partners Action Fund, a Koch-backed super PAC, canceled October reservations to help Republican Monica Wehby in Oregon.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) announced Wednesday that he raised $2 million in the third quarter and has a staggering $8 million cash on hand. Republican challenger Ed Gillespie has not released his fundraising number yet.