1. Hawthorn

60 points (15 wins, three losses) 124.3 per cent

Two games clear and now with four to play, the Hawks can still drop out of the top four if they don't take care of business from here. North and West Coast within six days of each other are the big ones to come and the 'good' Collingwood in the season finale could cause complications as well. They wouldn't want to play too many more games this year without Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo – both vitally important to Hawthorn's structure.

The run home

Rd 20: Melbourne (MCG)

Rd 21: North Melbourne (MCG)

Rd 22: West Coast (Domain Stadium)

Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)

Predicted finish: First

Predicted final match-up: Hawthorn v Adelaide, first qualifying final, MCG

• Who impressed for your club in this weekend's state leagues?

2. Greater Western Sydney

52 points (13 wins, five losses), 142.0 per cent

The Giants added a whopping six percentage points after breaking their duck in their destruction of Richmond on Sunday. They should win their next three without complications, but their hold on second place will likely come down to the round 23 game, away to North. Win that and GWS is looking at two home finals, including potentially a home preliminary final – a remarkable performance.

The run home

Rd 20: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)

Rd 21: West Coast (Spotless Stadium)

Rd 22: Fremantle (Spotless Stadium)

Rd 23: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)

Predicted finish: Second

Predicted final match-up: GWS v Sydney Swans, second qualifying final, ANZ Stadium

This is the type of goal Tom Scully and the Giants are becoming famous for. #AFLGiantsTigers https://t.co/hlj4vKEsmQ — AFL (@AFL) July 30, 2016

3. Sydney Swans

52 points (13 wins, five losses), 140.0 per cent

The Swans also enjoyed a bumper six percentage point increase after their hammering of Fremantle on Sunday and could win all four games from here to the finals. Now in a percentage race with Giants, Cats and Crows for top two, top four and the double chance, so there can be no let-up here. North in Tassie will be their toughest game from here to the finals.

The run home

Rd 20: Port Adelaide (SCG)

Rd 21: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 22: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)

Rd 23: Richmond (SCG)

Predicted finish: Third

Predicted final match-up: GWS v Sydney Swans, second qualifying final, ANZ Stadium

• After the siren: The five legitimate contenders for the flag

4. Geelong

52 points (13 wins, five losses), 133.1 per cent

Geelong should run the table from here and the next three weeks in particular offer real hopes of boosting its percentage to close the gap on the Swans and Giants. If GWS or the Swans do drop a game then the Cats will be ready to pounce on a top-two finish. But here's the poser for the Cats: Who would they rather play in the opening week of the finals if they don't finish top two? – Hawthorn at the MCG or GWS at Spotless?

The run home

Rd 20: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 21: Richmond (MCG)

Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)

Rd 23: Melbourne (Simonds Stadium)

Predicted finish: fifth

Predicted final match-up: Geelong v North Melbourne, first elimination final, MCG

5. Adelaide

52 (13 wins, five losses), 133.0 per cent

Amazing. By letting Essendon kick three junk-time goals late in the final quarter on Sunday, the Crows threw away their chance to move ahead of Geelong into fourth place. The percentage battle between teams second to fifth is desperately close, but with the hopeless Lions and hapless Dockers in the next two weeks, Adelaide still has a chance to move past its rivals into the top four. The game that will cause the Crows the most anxiety between now and September is the Showdown in round 23 where form traditionally, has counted for zero.

The run home

Rd 20: Brisbane Lions (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 21: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)

Rd 22: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 23: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)

Predicted finish: Fourth

Predicted final match-up: Hawthorn v Adelaide, first qualifying final, MCG

6. West Coast

48 points (12 wins, six losses), 129.1 per cent

Saturday at the MCG could have been a statement game for the Eagles, but the meek final quarter against Collingwood again underlined the view that they aren't quite at the level of the best of the competition. They need to win one more game to make absolutely sure of making the finals, but there are no gimmes for the rest of the season, starting with the 'away' derby next week. There is something about West Coast and white shorts that isn't quite working in 2016.

The run home

Rd 20: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)

Rd 21: GWS (Spotless Stadium)

Rd 22: Hawthorn (Domain Stadium)

Rd 23: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Predicted finish: Seventh

Predicted final match-up: Western Bulldogs v West Coast, second elimination final, Etihad Stadium

7. Western Bulldogs

48 points (12 wins, six losses), 115.7 per cent

The spirit was willing, but the bodies weren't against Geelong on Friday night and the injury toll at the Whitten Oval is starting to spiral out of control at the wrong end of the season. The double chance still beckons, but a more realistic goal might be a home elimination final, and they need to win three of their last four for that to be a chance. Indeed, they need one more win to finally book their finals appearance once and for all. North and the Pies in the next fortnight will be tricky.

The run home

Rd 20: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 21: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 22: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 23: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)

Predicted finish: Sixth

Predicted final match-up: Western Bulldogs v West Coast, second elimination final, Etihad Stadium.

8. North Melbourne

48 points (12 wins, six losses), 112.9 per cent

The Kangas didn't earn many style points, but they got the win for Boomer in his record-breaking 427th game and more importantly all but cemented their finals berth for 2016. North's fate from here is in its own hands and while the draw is difficult, every win from here will likely elevate it at least one position up the ladder. So a top-six finish and perhaps even the double chance is not out of the question. And after a pair of hard-fought wins, the form and confidence from the first part of the season might be returning.

The run home

Rd 20: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 21: Hawthorn (MCG)

Rd 22: Sydney Swans (Blundstone Arena)

Rd 23: GWS (Etihad Stadium)

Predicted finish: Eighth

Predicted final match-up: Geelong v North Melbourne, first elimination final, MCG

9. Port Adelaide

36 points (nine wins, nine losses) 113.7 per cent

The Power remain in mathematical touch after their evisceration of the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba. But three games outside the eight, they need to win three of their last four and hope either the Eagles, Kangas or the Dogs drop their last four, or win all of their remaining games and hope the Eagles, Kangas or Dogs win only one of their last four. So yes, there is a chance, just like Lloyd Christmas had a chance.

The run home

Rd 20: Sydney Swans (SCG)

Rd 21: Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 22: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 23: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)

10. St Kilda

36 points (nine wins, nine losses) 90.8 per cent

The loss to the Kangas on Saturday night put paid to their realistic finals hopes. Given their poor percentage, the Saints would need to win out from here, hope Port doesn't so the same and require the Eagles, Dogs and North to lose every game. That ain't happening.

The run home

Rd 20: Carlton (MCG)

Rd 21: Sydney Swans (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 22: Richmond (MCG)

Rd 23: Brisbane Lions (Etihad Stadium)

11. Melbourne

32 points (eight wins, 10 losses) 100.9 per cent

Win every game from here by plenty and the Dees still won't make it, unless the Eagles, Dogs and Power all lose their four remaining games – also by plenty – and one of the Saints and Port also don't end up with 12 wins. Sobering thought? Melbourne hasn't beaten Hawthorn since 2006.

The run home

Rd 20: Hawthorn (MCG)

Rd 21: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 22: Carlton (MCG)

Rd 23: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)

12. Collingwood

32 points (eight wins, 10 losses) 91.5 per cent

Win every game from here by 10 goals plus and the Pies still won't make it, unless the Eagles, Dogs and Power all lose their four remaining games – by plenty – and one of the Saints, Demons and Port also don't end up with 12 wins. So, no finals this year for the Pies, but the Darcy Moore highlights reel should sustain their fans between now and the start of next year.

The run home

Rd 20: Richmond (MCG)

Rd 21: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 22: Gold Coast (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 23: Hawthorn (MCG)

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