The Big Number: 80,000, the number of parking spaces GO Transit could need to add to keep up with projected ridership growth through 2031.

I could almost hear the profanity from GO train commuters last week after word got out that regional transit agency Metrolinx is studying the notion of charging for more parking spots at stations.

I get why the move is unpopular with a lot of people. I understand and acknowledge your f-bombs over the notion of paying for parking. But, alas, my sympathy is limited because, well, I can’t come up with a reasonable alternative.

GTA commuter parking is a math problem. And with the status quo strategy of mostly free parking, the numbers make no sense.

Metrolinx laid it all out in its 2016 GO rail station access plan. By 2031, Metrolinx would like to double GO train ridership, from about 100,000 weekday riders today to more than 200,000. This is widely accepted as a good goal. More people on transit means fewer people on highways. Love it.

But about 62 per cent of today’s GO train commuters drive their cars to their stations, where they park in some of the 70,000 parking spaces. If that ratio doesn’t change, Metrolinx would need to build up to 80,000 more parking spaces to accommodate new riders and ensure they at least have some chance of finding parking every day.

And that’s not doable without bending the constraints of time and space. There is no room around most GO stations to double the size of their surface lots.

Ah, so go vertical, right? But parking garages come with an absurd price tag. Metrolinx says the cost of building a single parking space in a multi-level structure is about $35,000 to $40,000, then another $100 to $200 per year in ongoing maintenance costs.

That’s bananas money. In a scenario where Metrolinx builds parking garages to handle new GO ridership, the construction cost could be as much as $3.2 billion, then add about $16 million a year in maintenance costs.

If offered to commuters for free, those spots would never generate any revenue to offset their costs. Instead, if the provincial government is feeling pro-transit, the burden could be covered by increased subsidies. If the government isn’t feeling the love for transit riders, the cost could fall to transit riders in the form of increased fares. Which do you think is more likely?

There’s also a big opportunity cost. That money spent on parking could instead go toward more sustainable efforts to solving what transit planners call the “last-mile problem” — the tricky issue of how to cost-effectively get people from their homes to the nearest rail station.

Imagine if, instead of shovelling more money at forever expanding parking, Metrolinx and the provincial government instead directed those funds toward other things that can get people from their homes to the station. Imagine if they then raised more money by charging for existing parking spots at GO stations, creating a permanent revenue stream.

Transit agencies all over the world are grappling with the last-mile problem. No one has come up with a perfect answer, but there are a pile of potential solutions that look far more promising than forever expanding parking.

Local bus networks are tried and true. With new connectivity, some could even run on dynamic routes that change based on riders’ needs — press a button in an app, and guarantee yourself curbside pickup and a ride to the station.

RELATED STORIES GTA Metrolinx looking at more paid parking in GO station lots

Supplement that with active transportation. Good bike routes — plus bike-share systems — and upgrades so stations aren’t so hostile to pedestrians could get more people on trains without driving.

Throw in a real commitment to building affordable housing near stations for extra points.

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This transition away from free commuter parking will be challenging, and maybe painful. Metrolinx is proceeding cautiously, and changes aren’t imminent. But don’t kid yourself that any government can come up with a way to maintain the status quo. Free parking comes at a cost, and the price isn’t sustainable.

Correction - Jan. 21, 2020: This article was edited from a previous version that mistakenly said the cost of building a single parking space in a multi-level structure is about $35,000 to $40,000 per year. In fact, that is the cost to build the space, not the cost per year.

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