On the surface Chicago Bears GM Ryan Pace looks reasonably secure. He’s revamped the entire roster from top to bottom. The quarterback position got two new pieces that could pan out big if given time to develop. There are a number of players on the roster who are intriguing from Jordan Howard to Leonard Floyd, Cody Whitehair, Akiem Hicks and Cameron Meredith. All of them were craft Pace acquisitions.

There’s just one problem though. His moves aren’t producing results. Despite the consistent flashes from some of those young guys, the direction of the Bears has gone downhill the past two years. They were 6-10 in 2015 and plummeted to 3-13 last year. The first time a Bears team has finished with that bad of a record in the 16-game era.

Not exactly the claim to fame a GM wants. Admittedly this was always a possibility given how old and depleted the roster was when he took over. Still, everybody knows this ownership by now. They aren’t known for being patience when the losing is ongoing. If the Bears struggle again, can we really trust they won’t at least consider axing him?

No, and here’s why.

Ryan Pace can’t hide from his mistakes

People forget that Pace was the youngest general manager in the NFL when the Bears hired him. That means two things. He likely brought in new ideas, which isn’t a bad thing, but also has loads of inexperience. The man was a scout for most of his tenure in New Orleans. He only spent two seasons as a personnel director before getting the call from Chicago.

By comparison Ted Thompson of the Packers was one for seven years before he got his first shot at building a roster in Seattle as their VP of Football Operations. John Schneider of the Seattle Seahawks was a personnel director for 12 years before he got his shot. It’s hard to hide from the reality that they went into their successful runs a little more seasoned than Pace did.

That shows up in some of his questionable moves the past couple years. The sizable contracts for Antrel Rolle and Eddie Royal? Releasing Matt Slauson when he still had value on a reasonable contract. Trading Martellus Bennett. Sure Brandon Marshall was the right move but Bennett was a bit more debatable. All of those decisions cost the Bears either a lot of money for little return or hurt the team is a bad area.

Qualified replacements are now available

Then there’s the reality that 2018 could feature some highly qualified GM candidates on the open market. A rarity in any offseason. This due in large part to some unusual circumstances. Scot McCloughan was fired by the Washington Redskins on the eve of the NFL draft. A move that continues to puzzle experts even months later. There were rumors of his drinking problems coming back but that was discredited by several sources. McCloughan has a glowing history when it comes to player evaluation. Here’s a few of his notable hits.

Alex Smith

Frank Gore

Patrick Willis

Joe Staley

Dashon Goldson

Michael Crabtree

Brandon Scherff

Then there’s John Dorsey. By all accounts he’d been having a solid run as GM for the Kansas City Chiefs. Travis Kelce, Marcus Peters and Tyreek Hill were his main highlights. Up until last week it was felt he was safe. Then out of nowhere the Chiefs decided to cut him loose. Rumors persist that it was a power move by head coach Andy Reid.

There are only so many excuses

Either way those are two highly qualified and experienced former GMs free to pursue for any team with an opening. If the Bears aren’t satisfied with Pace, they’d likely want to go with a proven commodity as a replacement. They would fit that bill.

Of course this isn’t a trashing of Pace. All things considered he’s made a lot of promising moves that could pay off huge pretty soon. At the same time the NFL is a bottom line business. His job security is tied to win column. In two years his team has nine victories total. That is not a number befitting a franchise of this prestige and history.

Maybe he has done a good job, but if the team doesn’t show any progress in 2017 he hasn’t done good enough. Keep in mind the Packers went 4-12 their first year under Thompson. By his third year they were in the NFC championship game. Three seasons is considered the point where roster build must start showing something.

Pace can’t be excused from that same judgment.