July 1, 2017

I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we wonât know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. Iâm not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. Iâm worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016âs pace.

Weekend of July 7th, 2017

The first weekend of July is also the biggest weekend of the month, as Spider-Man: Homecoming is coming out. It is the only film coming out this week, so it should have an explosive opening and earning more than $100 million during its first three days is likely. This weekend last year was the weekend The Secret Life of Pets debuted, so it will be a battle of the titans in the year-over-year comparison. Spider-Man: Homecoming does have the advantage, because family films tend to open slower, but have longer legs.