MUMBAI: Goldman Sachs upgraded India's rating to marketweight from underweight on the perception that BJP-led National Democratic Alliance "could prevail" in the 2014 elections while adding that better corporate profitability and signs of an early pickup in cyclical sectors have also played a part."Currently, the macro challenges that India faces in terms of external and fiscal imbalances, high inflation and tight monetary policy are being dominated by expectations of political change," Goldman said in its 18-page report, 'Modi-fying our View: Raise India to Marketweight'. Narendra Modi is BJP's PM candidate.The report said the earnings outlook was stabilising and FY14 EPS (earnings per share) forecast was being increased to 11% from 8%.The firm has revised the Nifty 2014 target to 6,900, about 10% higher than its close on Tuesday.Goldman is the first major brokerage to upgrade Nifty forecasts based on investor perception of a strong BJP showing in the May 2014 polls. Indian stocks have surged 22% from the August low of 17,448 to a record of 21,321, helped by Rs 31,200 crore of purchases by foreign funds that have returned following the postponement of a decision on the Fed taper, having exited on talk in May of the bond-buying coming to an end. On Tuesday, the Nifty ended 1% down at 6,253 while the Sensex ended 1.25% down at 20,975.

Opinion polls have shown BJP gaining support after the elevation of the Gujarat chief minister as its prime ministerial candidate. NDA is expected to secure over 180 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, according to some opinion polls. "Equity investors tend to view BJP as business-friendly, and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi as an agent of change," the Goldman report said.

Brokerages have been raising earnings and index forecasts. Japanese brokerage Nomura has raised its Sensex target for 2013 to 22,000 from 20,000, saying the delay in the US Federal Reserve's plans to withdraw its stimulus programme, significant positive surprises in trade data and the possibility of positive surprises on the political front have reignited the bullish fervour.Both Goldman and Nomura have warned of risks to the stock market surge from an unexpected decline in corporate earnings, outflow of foreign money due to Fed tapering and slow growth.Goldman also noted that external capital account pressures have moderated for now, and cited signs of a cyclical pickup and structural improvements in the economy. The investment bank said earnings sentiment had improved, and consensus forecasts have stabilised after persistent downgrades since January.The MSCI India index is trading at 14.5 times its forward P/E and 2.6 times trailing book value. At 14.5 times forward P/E, the market may have adequately priced in any upgrades in forward growth views and removal of macro 'tail-risks', but Goldman believes there may be potential for a near-term valuation overshoot driven by expectations of political change.Deutsche Bank raised its December 2013 Sensex target to 22,000 from 21,000, stressing that investor pessimism was receding amid positive factors such as currency stabilisation, rural demand recovery, global growth and a good monsoon.Goldman has listed HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, RIL, BPCL, CIL, YES Bank, IndusInd Bank, Adani Power, NHPC, Grasim, Container Corp and Adani Ports as some of its top picks. Nomura has replaced HDFC Bank with IDFC and added Axis Bank in its 'long-only' basket. Nomura's top five strategy picks are now ICICI Bank, HCL Tech, RIL, Tata Steel and NTPC.