Anybody projecting Auburn as a playoff contender is placing a lot of faith in potential.

This is a program that tumbled back to earth in 2014, falling from BCS National Championship game participant one season to 8-5 the next, with losses in four of its last five games. But the potential certainly exists for Gus Malzahn’s Tigers to make a playoff run.

For starters, the Malzahn-Rhett Lashlee combination has proven effective at putting points on the board. The Tigers lose a lot of skill talent – namely quarterback Nick Marshall, running back Cameron Artis-Payne and receiver Sammie Coates – but the offense will still have plenty of firepower.

Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson has done well in fill-in opportunities. AP Photo/Butch Dill

Quarterback Jeremy Johnson (57-135, 858 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs in his first two seasons) seems to be the front-runner to inherit the starting job, and he has been outstanding in limited playing time. Roc Thomas, Kerryon Johnson and junior college transfer Jovon Robinson are more than capable enough to carry the Tigers’ ground game. And Duke Williams and Ricardo Louis already have made some huge plays at wideout.

In other words, the offense will be fine. But how quickly will new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp be able to turn around a bunch that surrendered nearly 27 points and 400 yards per game in 2014? That’s the key to Auburn’s New Year’s Six hopes.

Adding Muschamp was an enormous coup for Auburn, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts getting results in his return to the Tigers. Auburn returns eight starters, plus star defensive end Carl Lawson should be back after missing the 2014 season following knee surgery.

If Muschamp makes an immediate difference and Auburn’s reloading offense clicks while facing a challenging early schedule – the Tigers face Louisville in Atlanta, visit LSU and host Mississippi State within the first four games – this team could make some noise.

They close the SEC schedule with games against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama, and all but the A&M game will be at home.

What could go wrong: Auburn’s defense has been a mess more often than not since Tommy Tuberville left town. The Tigers’ schedule is difficult enough that if Muschamp’s defense is slow to adapt to his teaching, Auburn could be out of the playoff conversation before midseason.

Preseason evaluations on the Tigers are mixed, with various college football writers ranking Auburn anywhere from second to 14th. Our own Mark Schlabach has the Tigers 12th in his Way-Too-Early Top 25 and the ESPN Stats & Information group ranks Auburn 18th in its Preseason Football Power Index.

Somewhere between those two spots feels like a reasonable place to rank the Tigers at this point. There are so many questions to answer that they simply are not a sure bet to jump back to the top of the heap in the challenging Western Division. They can get back there, but a lot of things will have to go right – much like they did during the Tigers’ unlikely run to the 2013 SEC title.