After all the head fakes, the millions of dollars in ad reservations made and canceled and the pleas for help from underdogs to D.C. bosses, the battle for the Senate has winnowed to six races.

The Senate will be won, insiders say, in a half-dozen states that could go either way on Election Day: The traditional swing states of Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and the newly competitive states of North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana, which historically lean Republican.


By virtue of simple math, the outlook favors Democrats because they have far more paths to victory. They need to pick up four seats to win the majority if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump loses, and they believe Wisconsin and Illinois are in the bag.

“A lot of them, which have been pretty tight for many months now, are moving in our favor,” said Sadie Weiner, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s communications director. “And we’re sitting 2 ½ weeks out of the election with the wind at our back.”

Yet with Trump flailing even in places like Utah and Georgia, it's remarkable that Senate Republicans are hanging around as they defend 24 seats to Democrats’ 10. Republicans acknowledge a near-sweep of the most contested states will be difficult but take pride that Rob Portman of Ohio, John McCain of Arizona and Chuck Grassley of Iowa look like locks for reelection.

“If I was a Democrat and I was counting on places like Missouri and Indiana in a very unstable election year for my majority, I would not be comfortable,” said Kevin McLaughlin, deputy executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. ”Even [Democratic] polling would show that voters in these six states don't see Trump and Republicans as one and the same.”

Strategists from both parties privately also agree on this: An anti-Trump wave has yet to take shape across the Senate map. Democrats hope his recent refusal to say he’ll accept the election results will change that, but time is running out.

One wild card is Florida, where Democrats are engaged in an internal battle about whether to add the Sunshine State back into the battleground mix. President Barack Obama was just there hammering Sen. Marco Rubio, but Democratic groups have cut more than $15 million in ad buys. Some in the party are advocating that Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.) can win with a reinvestment of party resources, but the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC are for now unmoved.

Here’s POLITICO’s guide to the half-dozen states that truly dictate whether Mitch McConnell or Chuck Schumer will be running the show next year.

New Hampshire

Democrats just got their best poll of the race from UNH/WMUR, showing Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) losing by nearly double-digits to Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Democrats are crowing about it, but no one on the ground actually thinks it’s a blowout.

“WMUR will run another poll next week with the headline: ‘The race is tightening again,’” said former Rep. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.).

These two politicians know each other in and out after a year of campaigning head-to-head. Their attacks often seem like pre-choreographed lines from a play as they cross paths in this state of 1.3 million, the smallest and least populous battleground in which retail politics could actually make the difference.

Hassan is trying to make Ayotte pay for not disavowing Trump until this month.

“When it became untenable to stick with him ... she switched,” Hassan said of Trump in an interview this month.

“I’ve addressed where I’m voting,” responded Ayotte, who says she will write in Mike Pence. “Think about who’s going to be the independent voice for New Hampshire." Hassan "has really been someone who has followed Hillary Clinton’s lead.”

Indiana

Republican Todd Young's campaign is laser-focused on a glaring vulnerability that’s dogged Democrat Evan Bayh since he entered the race in July: The charge that he abandoned Indiana until he wanted to run for office again.

In Indianapolis last week, Young spoke of a manufacturing business owner in Evansville and the problems he was having complying with Obamacare — and added a not-too-subtle dig at Bayh.

“These are the kinds of things that you learn by actually spending time with the people you want to represent,” the GOP congressman told an assembled crew of small business owners.

Democrat Evan Bayh's lead over Republican Todd Young, right, has dwindled to single digits after a barrage of attack ad. | AP Photo

Thought by Democrats to be a lock when the former senator and governor enjoyed a double-digit advantage three months ago, Bayh has seen his lead dwindle to single digits after a barrage of attack ads. Democrats are betting that Indiana voters’ long history with the Bayh family will be enough.

Despite public disillusionment with political insiders, “folks still know and trust the Bayh name," said Rep. Andre Carson (D-Ind.).

Pennsylvania

More than ever before, Democrat Katie McGinty’s campaign is hitching itself to the Clinton wagon and attempting to make GOP Sen. Pat Toomey’s indecision on Trump the race’s signature issue. Toomey has said he's still waiting for Trump to earn his vote.

“He’s not waiting to be persuaded, he’s waiting for the next poll,” McGinty said in an interview.

Democrats believe Toomey has officially waited too long to take a stance on Trump and voters will punish him regardless of whether he ultimately supports the party’s billionaire nominee or not.

“He’s not waiting to be persuaded, he’s waiting for the next poll,” Katie McGinty said of Pat Toomey. | AP Photo

But nationalizing the race by making it about Trump carries risks for McGinty as well. While Toomey has carved out a brand distinct from Trump’s, many voters still see her as a generic Democrat. While Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has pulled away in Pennsylvania, McGinty and Toomey are running neck-and-neck. And Toomey is attacking McGinty over ethics issues and pressuring her to release emails from her time as Gov. Tom Wolf’s chief of staff.

North Carolina

It’s all tied up in North Carolina, where Democrat Deborah Ross has steadily gained on Sen. Richard Burr, a low-key and relaxed lawmaker who vowed not to start his campaign until October. Now, Republicans are betting it all on an advertising blitz about the “radically liberal” stances Ross took while at the American Civil Liberties Union. The spots slam her for voicing concern over the state’s sex offender registry, defending flag burners and even for advocating for an adolescent who was convicted of sexual assault. (The ACLU believed he had been given too harsh a sentence for someone his age.)

Burr, however, waited to launch the attacks, causing much grumbling among national and local Republicans, who say an aggressive summer ad campaign to define Ross would’ve put the race out of reach for Democrats. Republicans familiar with Burr’s campaign said there was not enough cash to do so, as other Senate races were seen as “higher priorities.”

Republicans familiar with Richard Burr’s campaign said there was not enough cash to launch an aggressive ad campaign to define Deborah Ross. | AP Photo

So the political winds, for now, are behind Ross, a former state legislator and a late-round draft pick for her party. Trump trails in the state, as Clinton airs wall-to-wall ads. And the GOP brand has suffered during a months-long fight over the state’s transgender “bathroom law,” which a majority of voters don’t support.

Missouri

The GOP assumed Trump’s popularity would guarantee GOP Sen. Roy Blunt’s reelection. But while Trump’s numbers in the state slid slightly over the past month, Democrat Jason Kander gained momentum and kept outperforming Clinton on the Democratic ticket.

Kander got reinforcements from the Democratic Party’s liberal firebrand Elizabeth Warren on a recent Friday in Kansas City before a capacity crowd of over 1,000 people. Warren delivered a roaring indictment of Blunt as “part of the problem” in Washington and tied him to special interest groups such as the Koch brothers.

Warren has limited appeal in red Missouri, but her depiction of Blunt as a career politician with deep ties to Washington lobbyists — including within his own family — syncs with Kander’s central message in the race.

Polls show Roy Blunt, right, with only a slight lead over Jason Kander, left. | AP Photo

Polls show Blunt with only a slight lead, and Republicans have privately urged Blunt to hit back at the Democrats' attacks more forcefully. But Blunt has instead focused on criticizing Kander over his support for Clinton and Obamacare.

Nevada

The Silver State is the most diverse swing state up for grabs and the only one in which Republicans are on offense. Rep. Joe Heck (R-Nev.) has been a solid recruit for the GOP, acquitting himself well in the Democratic-leaning state against former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. The winner will claim a big prize: the seat of Democrat Harry Reid, the retiring minority leader.

Heck has led for most of the year, though polls are showing the race beginning to tilt Cortez Masto’s way. Polling in Nevada is notoriously unreliable due to the difficulty of reaching casino workers and cellphone users. The past two surveys showed Heck up 3 percentage points and Cortez Masto up 7.

But one thing is more certain: Heck is taking plenty of heat from conservatives for unendorsing Trump.

Joe Heck has led for most of the year, though polls are showing the race beginning to tilt Catherine Cortez Masto’s way. | AP Photo

"No Cortez Masto supporter was going to change their vote and vote for him" because Heck unendorsed Trump, said Chuck Muth, a former state GOP executive director, on Nevada radio this month. It’s one of several similar clips being circulated by Nevada Democrats.

Republicans are betting that parochial issues will eclipse the GOP’s reeling presidential nominee.

Cortez Masto "is forced to talk about anybody but herself and her opponent,” said Brian Baluta, a spokesman for Heck.

Contributing to this report were Elena Schneider in North Carolina, Kevin Robillard in Pennsylvania, Seung Min Kim in Indiana and Maggie Severns in Missouri.