The Padres are in an interesting situation currently as they need 40 man spots to not only protect Rule 5 guys but to also call up young players up to the big leagues to give them a shot. Many fans have been concerned about this issue so I decided that I will attempt to fix it. I will take the current 40 man roster and do some work on it, remove the dead weight, and set up some young players up for success. The final product will be the Opening Day 2019 40 Man Roster and attempt to project the 25 Man Roster with this current roster.





So here is the current 40 Man Roster





Current 40 Man (As of August 1st)





Pitchers

Colten Brewer

Jose Castillo

Robbie Erlin

Miguel Diaz

Phil Hughes

Dinelson Lamet (60 Day DL, Not on 40 Man currently)

Eric Lauer

Walker Lockett

Joey Lucchesi

Jordan Lyles

Kazuhisa Makita

Phil Maton

Bryan Mitchell

Luis Perdomo

Colin Rea

Clayton Richard

Tyson Ross

Craig Stammen

Robert Stock

Matt Strahm

Brad Wieck

Kirby Yates





Catchers

A.J. Ellis

Austin Hedges

Raffy Lopez

Francisco Mejia

Luis Torrens

Infield

Carlos Asuaje

Allen Cordoba

Freddy Galvis

Javy Guerra

Eric Hosmer

Jose Pirela

Cory Spangenberg

Christian Villanueva

Outfield

Franchy Cordero (60 Day DL, Not on 40 Man currently)

Alex Dickerson (60 Day DL, Not on 40 Man currently)

Travis Jankowski

Manuel Margot

Wil Myers

Hunter Renfroe

Franmil Reyes





Total: 39





So we currently have 1 open 40 Man Roster spot which will probably and should go to either Brett Kennedy or Luis Urias in the near future





First let’s look at the upcoming FA’s and options to see who we want to keep and let walk





FAs

Freddy Galvis (Resign)





Probably to many people’s surprise, I would resign Freddy Galvis to a 2 year deal. My Reasoning is a couple of factors, 1. Freddy Galvis’ great defense, He has 1.4 DWar, a .986 Fielding Percentage, 10 Defensive Runs Saved, and he passes the Eye Test. He has been the best shortstop in years for the Padres, 2. Tatis Jr may not be up in the majors at opening day, he either may not be quite ready or they might keep him down for some games in the beginning of the season to gain an extra year of control, and with no current SS backup, who would play at SS while Tatis is still in Triple A? 3. Some Scouts say that Tatis may not stick at Shortstop, Some Scouts have been saying that Tatis would have to be moved over to 3B because he won’t be able to stick at SS, 4. The 3B situation for the Padres doesn’t look the best right now, Villanueva looks more like a power pinch hitter and they have no 3B prospects close to the majors currently (Potts is currently in Single A).





So considering these factors, why don’t the Padres resign Galvis for 2 years and move Tatis over to 3B until the top 3B prospects come up (Hudson Potts) and then move Tatis back to 3B. I feel that is a really good move the Padres could make





Tyson Ross (Not Bring Back)

Even though there has been reported interest in bringing Ross back, I wouldn’t resign him. He hasn’t impressed anyone (4.41 ERA, 1.1 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9) and I would rather see a young pitcher be given a shot like Brett Kennedy, Walter Lockett or someone else. He is just blocking younger pitchers at this point.





AJ Ellis (Not Bring Back)

AJ Ellis has been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2018 but he is 36 and with catching depth in the organization at this point, we don’t have room for you. It was fun but we have to go in a different direction





Options

Jordan Lyles (Decline)

This is kind of the same deal as with Ross, He hasn’t impressed and even though I could see him possibly filling the long relief role in next year’s team, there are younger players who can fill that role (Robbie Erlin, Matt Strahm), and the front office could use that money somewhere





So now we have 4 open slots in our 40 Man Roster, let’s look at some players who are entering arbitration and see if we could nontender anyone to open up slots





Tender Decisions

Cory Spangenberg (Nontender)

This is a tough one but it needs to happen. With Urias coming up, Pirela being a better option and Carlos Asuaje bringing around the same production for cheaper, there isn’t enough room for Spangenberg on the 40 Man, especially for a price tag of almost $2 Million to Tender his contract, it has to be done. We have to cut some dead weight off this team if we want to start contending. We could always attempt to sign him to a minor league deal to hang around.

Colin Rea (Nontender)

Colin Rea is 28, has a 6.56 ERA this year in the minors and it doesn’t look like he will get close to the majors ever again. This is to free up a 40 Man Roster Spot for a guy who will be lost in the Rule 5 Draft if we keep Rea. This one is obvious

Kirby Yates (Tender)

Kirby Yates has been fantastic this season and looks to be our closer till we trade him, we’ll keep him.

Matt Szczur (Nontender)

This one is even more obvious than Colin Rea, not on the 40 man roster, 29, I’m not paying $500 K to a guy who won’t sniff the majors. It was nice hearing your interesting name be announced for a while. Next.

Robbie Erlin (Tender)

Robbie Erlin has had the injury bug for a while but this season he looks pretty good and it looks like he may find himself in the Long Relief role for a while as long as he stays healthy, keep him.

Luis Perdomo (Tender)

People would argue to nontender Luis Perdomo and give up on him but I’ll give him one more shot to see what he can do and worse comes to worse he becomes just a depth piece for next season (Maybe get into another brawl?), but put him in the bullpen, he won’t be a starter for us in the future.

Austin Hedges (Tender)

Austin Hedges is our current starting catcher and looks like he’s going to be a Padre for a while with his superb defense and his bat hasn’t looked that bad recently (Has a better average than Bryce Harper by a pretty good amount), it wouldn’t be smart to nontender him.

Bryan Mitchell (Nontender)

Finally! It’s time for AJ Preller to take the L on this one. The trade that brought him and Chase Headley failed, deal with it, now get rid of Bryan Mitchell so we can keep these rule 5 guys.





So now we have 7 open 40 Man spots and I would like to introduce a trade to open up an 8th





Craig Stammen to Red Sox for 3B Danny Diaz

Craig Stammen has been really, really good but he is 34 and won’t be with us for much longer, let’s get some young players and a 40 man spot for him. The Red Sox were connected to Craig Stammen during the deadline and could go after him in the offseason. We may not net Devers or Chavis but we can get another 3B who has blocked in the Red Sox organization but could have a better opportunity in the Padres organization. Danny Diaz is currently the Red Sox #11 prospect from Venezuela who was the signed by Boston in the 2017-2018 international signing class. He is 17 and is raw with hitting ability and power with a strong arm that could turn into something special for the Padres eventually.





So there is 8 40 man spots but I want to introduce a couple of players who I would like to be DFAed to open up a 40 man spot





DFAs

Alex Dickerson

Alex Dickerson looked like the possible LF of the future but with Wil Myers being in LF now and him getting Tommy John Surgery, I don’t think he will get back to the majors unfortunately. We can keep him on the 60 Day DL but as soon as he gets off the DL, he should be immediately be DFAed (This isn’t an opening of a 40 man spot, this is making sure we don’t use up a 40 man spot)

Allen Cordoba

Allen Cordoba was a Rule 5 Draft pick in 2017, he looked like he could somehow stick in the majors with a .270 average at some point but he ended up struggling at the end of his major league stint, ending with a .208 average, .282 OBP, .297 Slug and -0.7 WAR. It was apparent that he needed to work on some things, then why should he be DFAed? Because of his struggles at Lake Elsinore, he is hitting .194/.222/.310, It doesn’t look like he will do anything for us in the future with our SS depth. If he is claimed by another team (Little young for a DFA), it will be a little unfortunate but not the end of the world.

Luis Torrens

Same thing here. Rule 5 guy who is doing pretty well in Lake Elsinore (.292/.330/.419) but with the catching depth in this organization and with a Mejia/Hedges platoon that looks locked for years to come, we shouldn’t be using a 40 man spot on a guy who won’t make the majors. If he gets waived, like I said with Cordoba, unfortunate but won’t a big deal at the end of the day.





Kazuhisa Makita

Same situation as Bryan Mitchell, AJ Preller take the L on this one. Makita hasn’t been what we thought he would be and we should bring young guys up in his place. It would have been fun to see this guy succed but it is unfortunite it didn’t happen and we should move on.





So Now we have 11 open slots, 1 will go to Franchy Cordero as he will come off the 60 Day DL in the offseason at some point.





So with our 10 open slots, let’s fill them up with some young guys.





40 Man Additions

Austin Allen

Austin Allen needs a 40 man spot and he will become the 4th Catcher on our 40 Man Roster. This one is an obvious one

Anderson Espinoza

This guy also needs a 40 man spot and is the #11 best Padres Prospect currently but got Tommy John and could be a guy who can rise up the prospect boards again to a top 20 prospect like he was when we traded Drew Pomeranz for him.

Brett Kennedy

This guy deserves a 40 man spot and should be called up to the major leagues right now. He has been really, really good in Triple A (10-0 2.56 ERA, 84 IP, 77 SO, 23 BB). He needs to be given a shot to compete for a rotation spot which if he sticks in the Padres Rotation would be huge as he is not in the top 30 Padres prospects.

Brett Nicholas

Brett Nicholas is a wild card and could in my opinion compete for the 25th spot in the major league. He is a 1B/OF in El Paso and I think he could get a shot in the major leagues for a season or two with how he is performing in El Paso (.305/.364/.527 15 HR 73 RBI), if he doesn’t make the 25 man roster, then he doesn’t get a 40 man spot and it goes to another young player, most likely Michael Gettys

Jacob Nix

Another Top Prospect (#14 in Padres System) who needs to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. Not surprising at all

Dillon Overton

Dillon Overton is another El Paso Pitcher who deserves to get a shot in the majors (4-2 2.80 ERA, 54.2 IP, 36 SO, 15 BB), I could see him being in the bullpen next year and becoming another pleasant bullpen surprise.

Chris Paddack

Yet another Prospect who needs to be protected by the Rule 5 Draft (#5 Prospect in Padres System). This one is the most obvious out of them all.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Even though Tatis doesn’t need a 40 man spot, there is enough 40 man spots to put Tatis on the 40 Man to prepare for his eventual call up, Padres fans will count down the days till he gets the call up.

Luis Urias

Not only does he need to be protected for the Rule 5 Draft but he could be called up to the majors any day now. He is almost ready to start his major league career and it’ll be exciting to see how he develops into hopefully a star.

Trey Wingenter

Trey Wingenter is the last El Paso guy who should get a 40 Man Spot. He is pitching not bad in El Paso (3-3, 3.61 ERA, 42.1 IP, 51 SO, 24 BB) and he is a good depth guy in case a bullpen guy gets hurt in the majors. He could even earn a spot on the major league team or get a shot to prove himself early in 2019.





Now that we have given all of the extra 40 man spots out, let’s see the top players in the Padres Organization who will be unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft.





Top players unprotected from Rule 5 Draft

There is 2 Categories for this list Michael Gettys and everyone else





Michael Gettys





Edward Olivares

Pedro Avila

Ty France

Gerardo Reyes

Hansel Rodriguez





Michael Gettys is the only guy I see that could be taken from the Rule 5 Draft out of this list and was the player I considered the most to give a 40 man spot. The rest of the players are too far out of the majors to be picked and if they are picked, it would be be unfortunate but nothing too damaging, especially with the depth of the Padres system. Michael Gettys definitely had an argument to earn a 40 man spot over a couple of the current guys on the 40 man but I decided to risk it and leave him unprotected because of the OF depth in the majors and the guys who are doing well in El Paso. If he is picked in the Rule 5, I would be a little sad but wouldn’t freak out.



So now let’s look at the completed 40 man roster for opening day 2019





40 Man Roster Opening Day 2019





Pitchers

Colten Brewer

Jose Castillo

Miguel Diaz

Robbie Erlin

Anderson Espinoza

Phil Hughes

Brett Kennedy

Dinelson Lamet (60 Day DL)

Eric Lauer

Walker Lockett

Joey Lucchesi

Phil Maton

Jacob Nix

Dillon Overton

Chris Paddack

Luis Perdomo

Clayton Richard

Robert Stock

Matt Strahm

Brad Wieck

Trey Wingenter

Kirby Yates





Catchers

Austin Allen

Austin Hedges

Raffy Lopez

Francisco Mejia





Infield

Carlos Asuaje

Freddy Galvis

Javy Guerra

Eric Hosmer

Brett Nicholas

Jose Pirela

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Luis Urias

Christian Villanueva





Outfield

Franchy Cordero

Travis Jankowski

Manuel Margot

Wil Myers

Hunter Renfroe

Franmil Reyes





Lastly, Let’s look at my prediction for the 25 Man Opening Day Roster in 2019 and the lineup and pitching depth chart projections for opening day 2019.





25 Man Opening Day Roster 2019

Pitchers

Jose Castillo

Miguel Diaz

Robbie Erlin

Brett Kennedy

Eric Lauer

Walker Lockett

Joey Lucchesi

Phil Maton

Dillon Overton

Clayton Richard

Robert Stock

Matt Strahm

Kirby Yates





Catchers

Austin Hedges

Francisco Mejia





Infield

Freddy Galvis

Eric Hosmer

Brett Nicholas

Jose Pirela

Luis Urias

Christian Villanueva





Outfield

Travis Jankowski

Manuel Margot

Wil Myers

Hunter Renfroe





Starters

1: Clayton Richard

2: Joey Lucchesi

3: Eric Lauer

4: Walker Lockett

5: Brett Kennedy





Bullpen

LR: Matt Strahm

LR: Robbie Erlin

MR: Jose Castillo

MR: Miguel Diaz

MR: Dillon Overton

7th: Robert Stock

Setup: Phil Maton

Closer: Kirby Yates





Lineup

CF: Manuel Margot

1B: Eric Hosmer

LF: Wil Myers

RF: Hunter Renfroe

C: Francisco Mejia

3B: Christian Villanueva

SS: Freddy Galvis

P: Clayton Richard

2B: Luis Urias





Bench

C: Austin Hedges

1B: Brett Nicholas

2B: Jose Pirela

OF: Travis Jankowski





I think Brett Nicholas and Dillon Overton are the two surprise final spots on the 25 man roster after good spring trainings in 2019. Mejia is technically starting over Hedges in the lineup is because he is the better hitter and the Padres have had trouble with offense for a while (Remember 2014). I think Lamat due to his Tommy John won’t be back till May/June and I think Tatis’ Call up to the majors won’t happen till May 2019 either because he isn’t ready or Padres want another year of control.





So give me your opinions on the future 2019 40 Man Roster for the Padres and other moves you would have made. I could see the Padres making a trade for an ace like Syndergaard in the offseason which would affect the 2019 rotation.





#Trusttheprocess #Padres2021WorldSeriesChamps