TL;DR Waiting, still waiting, for the epic move…

This week we have once again been in a holding pattern, awaiting the large move that is surely on the cards. A couple of times we have seen significant tremors in the market, which may be test moves for what is about to happen. On Wednesday, the price of bitcoin dropped $150 but recovered entirely within the 4h candle, leaving a long ‘shooting star’ doji; yesterday we saw a sharp move both up and down within the 4h, covering a span of around $150 but ending much where it started. These moves are most likely bots going liquidation hunting in low-volume conditions, taking out traders who put their stops in the wrong place. This is the best they can do at this point – before something more meaningful happens.

In terms of the bigger picture, bitcoin broke a five-month losing streak, with our first green monthly candle following five red ones. Volume is starting to rise, too. However, this does not (yet) translate to rising prices. We see that shorts may be picking up again, having potentially hit a bottom – indicating that the reaction rally may be over and traders are looking to take profits and go short.

Sentiment is flipping from bullish to bearish and back again, with Crypto Twitter alternating between shouting that the bottom is in and that further falls are on the cards. Looking at the daily, we can see that we still need to convincingly break $4,200 before we can reasonably call it a higher high; at the same time, we have not yet seen a lower low – so, we’re waiting for one or other of those factors to resolve, as they surely must.

In wider news, we’ve learned that the Bitcoin network supports 3x the yearly tx volumes that PayPal does, though of course, they can’t realistically be compared directly due to the way in which each are used and the dynamics of transfers on each (for example, a transfer to an exchange is typically forwarded to cold storage, doubling the transfer volume for that move alone).

Lastly, we’re still awaiting the launch of the big platforms like Bakkt and Fidelity. Bakkt have always kept their cards close to their chest and haven’t offered any updates since the US government reopened; when they do, we can expect everything to be in place already. Fidelity, meanwhile, is planning to launch towards the end of this month.

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