Democrat Tony Evers is pulling ahead of Scott Walker in the race to become Wisconsin’s next governor, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released Tuesday.

Evers earned 49 percent of support among likely voters, compared to 44 percent for Walker. This is the first time since Evers won the nomination this August that he has led Walker in the Marquette poll, regarded as the premium in-state survey. Last month, the two nominees were tied at 46 percent.

The results are the latest in a string of bad news for the two-term Republican incumbent, who has repeatedly acknowledged that this election is the “toughest” of his career. Both Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report rank the race as a “toss-up.”

Walker previously won his seat in GOP wave years, and his crackdown on voting rights and sweeping cuts to the state education budget have bruised his reputation among Wisconsin voters.

Support for Evers, the state schools superintendent, appears to be bolstered by independent voters. Per Marquette, GOP support for Walker and Democratic support for Evers are both over 90 percent. Among independents, the breakdown is 52 percent for Evers and just 32 percent for Walker.

Results also looked good for Democrats in the U.S. Senate race, with incumbent Tammy Baldwin expanding her lead from two points to 11 in her race against GOP challenger Leah Vukmir. Baldwin earned 53 percent of likely voters compared to 42 percent for Vukmir.

The Marquette survey was conducted among 800 registered Wisconsin voters from Sept. 12-16. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points