In contrast, after suffering the loss of Republican control of the House, Trump has shown little inclination to alter the direction of his administration. Perhaps he is banking on the fact that some of the voting trends on Nov. 6 were favorable to Republicans.

Take Ohio, which has 18 Electoral College votes. The question there is whether this pivotal swing state has in fact turned red or at least a dark shade of pink.

There is some evidence that the state is moving to the right. In 2016, Ohio voted for Trump by 8.1 percentage points, and Mike DeWine, the Republican candidate for governor this year, beat Richard Cordray by 4.3 points. In a year when Democrats picked up at least 39 House seats nationally, none were in Ohio.

Dan Sewell and Julie Carr Smyth, reporters for The Associated Press, made the case immediately after the election that Ohio is moving in a red direction:

Ohio Democrats can’t worry right now about how to turn Ohio blue. First, they have to figure out how to get it back to purple in a state where President Donald Trump is a force for Republicans. Republicans on Tuesday again swept the races for governor and four other state offices. That’s the third-straight election they’ve done that, and notably this year, all five of the offices were open.

David Pepper, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, told Sewell and Smyth that the results were “very disappointing.” Pepper declared that “It’s clear that Donald Trump also inspired his supporters in rural areas to show up.”

While Republicans swept state offices, Sherrod Brown, Ohio’s Democratic Senator, won re-election by 6.4 points, roughly the same as his margin of victory in 2012.

Herb Asher, professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State and a longtime observer of local politics, was not optimistic about Democratic chances in the state in 2020. In an email, Asher wrote:

In statewide contests in Ohio, including for president, in a balanced political environment, the G.O.P. enjoys a 3 to 5 percent advantage from the outset.

Asher said the state has undergone a

mini-realignment in which the rural areas (both western Ohio and Appalachia) have become even more Republican, and the Democrats gains in some of the urban counties do not compensate for this.

The bottom line, however, Asher argues, is that Democrats should not write off Ohio:

It’s still close enough to be competitive and yield a Democratic victory. But Ohio will be more difficult to carry than Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota. So I would focus first on those states.

Paul Beck, a colleague of Asher’s at Ohio State, was more optimistic about Democratic prospects in the state. He emailed:

It remains a battleground state despite Trump’s success in 2016 and the Republican sweep of state executive offices in 2018. Sherrod Brown led the top races with 53 percent and Democrats won 47 percent of House votes.

Because of those results, Beck contended that Ohio “should be competitive in 2020 and Ohio remains a big Electoral College prize.”

Beck summed up his view as “Pink at best, hardly red.”

In Iowa, which backed Trump by a solid 51.2 to 41.7 percent in 2016, recent results indicate that a Democratic presidential candidate stands a chance in 2020.