Stephen Holder

stephen.holder@indystar.com

INDIANAPOLIS – As I clean out my notebook and clear my head, here are some notes and observations on the Indianapolis Colts as they turn their attention to Monday’s road game against the New York Jets.

>> Can the Colts ‘run the table'?

The Colts have won enough games and caught enough breaks to keep them in the AFC playoff race.

But merely being in the race was never the goal of this, or any, Colts season. To actually reach the playoffs, simply staying in the race will no longer be sufficient. Treading water doesn’t get you to the postseason.

So, here’s the bottom line: The Colts are going to have to play their way in.

No matter what the unpredictable Houston Texans do the rest of the way, and regardless of whether you take the Tennessee Titans seriously, the Colts can’t back their way into this postseason. The likelihood is they’re going to have win most, if not all, of their remaining five games to win their division and claim the accompanying automatic postseason berth. The Colts are one game behind the Texans in the AFC South but likely need to finish with a better record than Houston to avoid unfavorable tiebreaker scenarios. And they’re two games out in the wild-card race, so qualifying that way doesn’t appear viable.

Now, the enormity of the Colts’ challenge is beginning to sink in.

“We understand that we have to run the table, point blank,” tight end Dwayne Allen said. “In order to have a realistic chance, we have to run the table. You can either be intimidated by that or get excited. Because that means that the coaching staff, the coordinators, the players are going to give it everything we absolutely have to win a football game. And that’s exciting football.”

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But therein lies the problem. Be honest: Do you trust this team to win five straight? How about four of five?

That’s not to say the Colts aren’t capable. There’s so much mediocrity in the NFL this season that anything seems possible. But unless this Colts season ends with a Super Bowl title, its lasting memory will be this team’s inconsistency. Win one, lose one. Lose one, win one. The production and execution from week to week has been as unpredictable as Indiana weather.

That same team is charged with finishing strong in a slate of games that includes three road contests (Jets, Vikings and Raiders) and a game against the division leader (the Texans).

“Like I told (the players), there is no margin for error,” coach Chuck Pagano said. “We have had our ups and had our downs, and that’s life in the NFL. That’s life in general. It’s all how you respond, so I expect these guys to respond like they usually do.”

This might border on wishful thinking, but here’s a silver lining to all this: If the Colts somehow make the cut and reach the playoffs, it will mean they found a way to get hot. There are worse ways to enter the postseason than on a winning streak — especially for a team that has won consecutive games just once this season.

>> How Dorsett stacks up

Phillip Dorsett is two-thirds of the way through his second season, and there remain legitimate questions about whether he will live up to his first-round draft status. The receiver from the University of Miami was the Colts’ first-round choice in 2015 (29th overall) and the wisdom of that pick has been the subject of much debate ever since.

To further this conversation, it seems a good way to measure Dorsett’s progress is to evaluate him compared with other members of his draft class.

The findings:

Dorsett excels in an area that will surprise no one. His yards per catch (16.5) rank second among second-year receivers, behind Pittsburgh’s Sammie Coates. He’s always been a speedster and thrives when asked to go deep.

Other measurements offer more of a mixed bag. Dorsett is 16th among second-year receivers in catches (24), and 11th in receiving yards (395). Eighteen second-year receivers have multiple touchdown receptions. Dorsett, who dropped a would-be touchdown against the Steelers on Thursday night, has just one.

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Dorsett’s catch rate of 53 percent — his number of catches compared with the number of times he is targeted — is not great. Compare it with, for example, that of Oakland Raiders 2015 first-round choice Amari Cooper (66 percent). However, Dorsett’s rate is comparable to that of other Colts receivers, including T.Y. Hilton’s 58 percent.

So, what’s the takeaway? Dorsett could be better, but when compared with his peers, it’s entirely too early to suggest he’s a bust.

Still, he’s playing on a team with a Pro Bowl quarterback and in an offense that plays to his strengths. The Colts need more out of him.

>> Did you know?

The Jets have been limited to six points or fewer in three of their 11 games this season? That’s a notable statistic for the Colts, whose defense is struggling and will need to help the offense against a formidable Jets defense Monday.

Colts QB is fine; receivers drop the ball