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The future of the Justice Center may come into clearer focus in 2017.

(Marvin Fong, The Plain Dealer)

CLEVELAND, Ohio - The former Cuyahoga County architect said a consultant grossly underestimated the cost to replace the Justice Center complex. He estimates a cost of $1 billion, rather than $575 million.

Berj Shakarian, who supervised renovation and construction projects for 32 years, maintains that the 40-year-old complex is in fair, not poor condition. He said it would cost millions less than consultants suggest for maintenance and repairs that could extend the building's life at least 25 years.

Consultants based a replacement estimate of about $575 million on what is called the "rough order of magnitude," which is basically a guess that could be 50 percent higher or 50 percent lower, Shakarian said.

"Unless you have square footages, the unit price and the historical value you are not going to be able to determine the actual cost," he said in an interview on Wednesday. "If you are going to make your whole assessment based on guesses on estimates it will take you nowhere. The whole thing is fictitious."

K2M Design is studying options on replacing or repairing the Justice Center.

K2M, along with Osborne Engineering, in 2014 completed an extensive assessment of the condition of the 2.29 million-square-foot complex for the county.

The complex includes a 25-story court tower, 10-story jail, 11-story jail addition, nine-story Cleveland Police Department Headquarters and 432,500 square feet of underground parking. The complex is connected by a sky-lit central atrium, which serves as the secure public entrance.

The report included several options to upgrade or replace portions of the center. But the firms did not study the possibility of demolishing the entire complex and the cost to rebuild at another location, which is what the consultant was asked to determine.

Shakarian, who left in 2010, said he has not been consulted by the county. He and Thomas Monahan, superintendent of the Justice Center from 1976 to 1990 and project manager for the jail addition from 1990 to 1994, studied the 300-page report at the request of Cleveland Municipal Judge Raymond Pianka. Pianka and other judges met with the consultant last week.

Shakarian prepared a report, which he said he has not shared with the county.

County spokeswoman Mary Louise Madigan said officials could not comment on Shakarian's estimates because they have yet reviewed them.

See the report at the bottom of the story or click here if on a mobile device.

Here's what Shakarian said:

1. Square footage calculations in the report are wrong.

2. Costs are based on estimates. He gave an example of a homeowner who wants to build a 200-square-foot concrete deck.

"His contractor would call contractors and shop around and get a unit price per square foot," he said. "He can then tell the owner 'This is going to be $10 a square foot, or $2,000, within 10 percent.' If it was rough order of magnitude he would eyeball the site and say it could cost about $5,000."

3. The report's determination that the building is in poor condition and needs $236 million in repairs is wrong. The building is solid, he said. About $100 million has been spent on capital improvements between 1990 and 2010. A $118 million investment over 12 years would extend the life of the building for at least 25 years.

4. Costs can escalate. The Justice Center, a $72 million project in 1972, was completed in 1976 at a cost of $139 million.

5. The public image of the complex could be improved with a glass canopy over the stairs to the north entrance. The atrium and skylight could be filled with artwork and become a public space.

Shakarian said he based his $1.35 billion replacement cost on the cost to build the Carl B. Stokes Federal Courthouse.

That 727,000-square-foot building was completed in 2002 at a construction cost of $200 million or $275 per square foot, he said.

The cost today, adjusted for inflation, would be $368.46 per square foot, he said. Using that figure, it would cost $847 million to build a new 2.3 million square-foot Justice Center plus $508 million in services, fees, contingencies and other costs.

"The values (in the report) are lowball," he said.

He disputes the argument that the Justice Center sits on prime property for development.

"(Cleveland) City Hall is prime property too," he said "Do you want to tear that down?"