PC Lead Narrows but Still Tracking for Massive Majority

NDP to serve as opposition

Toronto, December 1st – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 861 Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (40%) say they would support the PCs, down 5 points since October (Oct 26: 45%). The NDP and Ontario Liberals are statistically tied again, but with a slightly higher share of the vote for the NDP, with a quarter (26%) for the NDP and a quarter (24%) for the Liberals. Since October the NDP are up 4 points (Oct 26: 22%) and the Liberals are unchanged (Oct 26: 24%)

Just under one-tenth (8%) are supporting the Greens, who are up one point (Oct 26: 7%) and few (2%) say they are supporting another party.

Were this electoral scenario to play out, the NDP would serve as official opposition to a Progressive Conservative majority government.

Respondents most likely to say they support the PCs include those aged 45-54 (51%), the most wealthy (49%), with some college/university (43%) or a college/university degree (43%), and living in Southwestern Ontario (48%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (39%) and 35-44 (37%), the least wealthy (35%) and those earning $20-$40,000 (37%), and with a post-graduate degree (34%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Ontario Liberals include those aged 65+ (34%), earning $40-$60,000 (27%) or $80-$100,000 (30%), with a post-graduate degree (34%), and living in Toronto (31%).

Wynne unpopular, Brown unknown, Horwath liked, but also unknown

When asked whether they approve or disapprove of Kathleen Wynne's performance as premier, one-sixth (15%) say they approve, three-quarters (74%) say they disapprove, and (10%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -59. The premier's approval is effectively unchanged from September when her net approval score was also -59. (Sept 26: -59)

Patrick Brown sees approval from just under a third (29%), and disapproval from just over a third (35%), with more than a third (36%) saying they do not know. His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -6. Brown's approval is down slightly from September, seeing a drop of four points in is net favourable score. (Sept 26: -2)

Andrea Horwath is the most popular leader, seeing approval from almost 4 in 10 (38%), and disapproval from more than a quarter (28%). A third (34%) also say they do not know about Horwath. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove is +10). Horwath's approval has ticked up slightly since September, two points higher than when last we measured it. (Sept 26: +2)

Almost no one trusts political promises

Almost zero (1%) say they have a lot of trust in the promises made by politicians before an election. One quarter (28%) say they have some trust, while almost half (46%) say they do not have a lot of trust. A quarter (23%) have no trust at all in pre-election promises.

“Brown's lead has slipped slightly," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Despite the dip, he's still sitting in majority territory, which is a good place to be six months before the election. One thing that is common to voters, regardless of political stripe? They don't really trust election promises."

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.