Russian and Turkish leaders say a security corridor will be set up in Idlib to end fighting and help civilians

This article is more than 6 months old

This article is more than 6 months old

The presidents of Russia and Turkey have reached agreement on a ceasefire to begin at midnight Thursday in north-western Syria, where escalating fighting has threatened to put forces from the two countries into direct conflict.

The deal struck by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, after talks in Moscow on Thursday would also set up a security corridor along a key east-west highway in Idlib province.

Putin voiced hope the agreement would serve as a good basis for ending the fighting in the Idlib de-escalation zone, put an end to suffering of civilian population and contain a growing humanitarian crisis.

The agreement appears to achieve Russia’s key goal of allowing the Syrian government to secure control over strategic highways essential for consolidating its grip on the country after a devastating nine-year war.

But in a nod to Turkey’s interests, the deal also puts the brakes on the push by Syrias president, Bashar Assad, to reclaim control over all of Idlib province, the last opposition-controlled region that borders Turkey.

Erdoğan said he and Putin agreed to help refugees return to their homes. More than 900,000 people have been displaced by the fighting since Assad’s forces began an offensive in December backed by Russian airstrikes.

Both leaders had underlined the need for an agreement at the start of the Kremlin talks, which lasted more than six hours. One goal had been to prevent damaging their bilateral relations and blossoming trade.

Vladimir Frolov, an independent Russian foreign affairs analyst, said: “The main problem in Idlib is the desire of president Bashar al-Assad ... to establish full control of the area and block the border with Turkey, while also having pushed 3 million of the Sunni population, unfriendly to Assad, out on to Turkish soil.”

The fight in the province, the last opposition-controlled region in Syria, has been catastrophic for the population. Nearly 1 million people have fled their homes since the latest offensive began on 1 December, in the largest single wave of displacement since the start of the civil war nine years ago.

With nowhere to go, many have crowded at the border with Turkey, which hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees and refuses to allow others in.

Play Video 0:46 Aerial footage shows queues near Greek-Turkish border – video

It has also brought Turkey, a Nato member, dangerously close to war with Russia. In the past month, Syrian and Turkish troops have repeatedly clashed, killing scores on both sides.

For Turkey, which has sent thousands of troops to Syria in the past few weeks, the intervention has been disastrous: 58 soldiers were killed in the past month, including 33 in an airstrike last week.

In response, Erdoğan threw open Turkey’s borders with Greece and said he would no longer prevent migrants and refugees from entering Europe. Some European leaders have accused him of trying to blackmail the west into backing Turkey.

Analysts suggested the move showed Erdoğan’s desperation – especially after he failed to get assistance from Nato – and was likely to backfire as dramatic scenes reminiscent of the 2015 migrant crisis played out at the edge of Europe.

Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Altinbas University in Istanbul, said: “The Turkish side was compelled by necessity, in the hope that the pressure created as such would twist Europe’s arm.”

In a sign of heightened tensions in Turkey, a brawl erupted in parliament on Wednesday after an opposition MP accused the president of disrespecting soldiers.

Play Video 0:43 Brawl erupts in Turkish parliament over military involvement in Syria – video

Erdoğan and Putin have met repeatedly in recent years to coordinate their moves in Syria. In September 2018, they struck a de-escalation deal on Idlib that averted a Syrian offensive. The agreement created a security zone free from heavy weapons that was monitored by Turkish troops. But the pact ultimately collapsed.

In October, an agreement between the two leaders carved up the zone further east along the border, with each deploying forces to fill the void after Donald Trump’s order to withdraw US forces there.

Erdoğan’s main goal was to prevent a fresh wave of refugees entering Turkey. His biggest leverage with Putin is Moscow’s desire for strong ties with Turkey to counterbalance US influence in the region.

Putin had signalled Russia’s willingness to accommodate Turkish security concerns. Having secured Moscow’s interests and those of his Syrian allies by recapturing key cities as well as gas and phosphate reserves, he could afford to appease Erdoğan to some extent on Idlib.