Deep in New England territory with less than a minute to go, the Raiders had a chance to send the game into overtime with a touchdown. But Derek Carr's pass bounced out of the hands of his receiver Denarius Moore and wound up in the arms of Patriots defensive tackle Vince Wilfork. The interception was the most costly play of week three according to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics as it lowered the Raiders' Win Probability 29 percentage points.


Burke's Win Probability measures a variety of things, like time remaining, score, down, and distance. As far as players who helped their teams out most, Joe Flacco accounted for two of the top five most positive plays Sunday. His deep completion to Steve Smith near the end of the fourth quarter was the most positive play of the week as it increased the Ravens' Win Probability 39 percentage points. Flacco's other top positive play was drawing a pass interference call on Cleveland with just under six minutes left in the fourth quarter, which raised the Ravens' Win Probability 19 percentage points.

Here are the most and least helpful plays of the week.

Play Team WPA EPA Qtr Time Down Distance Yd Line Joe Flacco pass to Steve Smith for 32 yards BLT 0.39 2.31 4 1:28 2 5 45 Peyton Manning pass to Jacob Tamme for 26 yard touchdown DEN 0.35 2.67 4 0:24 1 10 26 Kirk Cousins pass to DeSean Jackson for 81 yard touchdown WAS 0.27 6.00 3 2:13 1 10 81 Joe Flacco incomplete pass intended for Torrey Smith, pass interference on CLV-Justin Gilbert for 31 yards BLT 0.19 3.23 4 5:56 3 4 36 Brian Hoyer pass to Taylor Gabriel for 70 yards CLV 0.18 4.92 4 10:07 2 10 79


Play Team WPA EPA Qtr Time Down Distance Yd Line Derek Carr pass intercepted by NE-Vince Wilfork returned for 1 yard to NE 11 OAK -0.29 -4.25 4 0:59 1 12 12 Geno Smith pass intercepted by CHI-Ryan Mundy at NYJ 45, returned for 45 yard touchdown NYJ -0.27 -8.17 1 14:28 1 10 47 Eddie Lacy run for no gain, fumble, recovered by DET-Don Carey at GB 40 and returned for 40 yard touchdown GB -0.25 -7.43 1 12:13 2 7 60 Justin Forsett run for -6 yards BLT -0.21 -1 4 3:17 1 10 59 Austin Davis pass intercepted by DAL-Bruce Carter, returned for 25 yard touchdown STL -0.21 -6.68 4 6:06 1 10 79 Joe Flacco incomplete pass intended forJustin Forsett BLT -0.21 -2.29 4 5:07 3 3 3

[Advanced Football Analytics]



Previously: Colin Kaepernick Was The Most Disastrous Quarterback In Week 2