Griz fans should be confident…but they’re not

This Saturday at noon, for the 116th time, the Montana Grizzlies will face off against the Bobcats of Montana State. The game is the Super Bowl of Montana…the biggest sporting event by far. The fans of the winning team earn a year’s worth of bragging rights depending on the outcome.

As a Griz fan, everything is pointing to Saturday being a great day. Griz fans should be confident for a lot of reasons.

First, the Bobcats have been bad this year, and while that gives me no joy, it should mean a blowout for the Griz.

Second, Vegas says Montana is more than a two touchdown favorite. The betting line is currently at Montana -15.5

Third, the Griz have been ranked in the top 25 all season and are currently ranked #22 nationally. The Cats are not ranked…not even close.

Fourth, the Cats only got their first conference win last week against lowly UC Davis. Their non-conference wins this year came against Bryant University and Div-II Western Oregon. Not very inspiring.

Fifth, the Griz are playing at home, and have won 90 percent of games there since WaGriz was built in 1986.

Sixth, Montana has won the past three Cat/Griz games by a combined score of 116-56. They’ve also won 8 of the last 10, and 25 of the last 30.

Seventh, Montana coach Bob Stitt is the third winningest active coach in the Big Sky Conference with a .600 win percentage. Montana State coach Jeff Choate is in last place with a .143 win percentage.

Eighth, this picture exists on the internet:

Ninth, the Griz are #2 in scoring offense, total offense, and pass offense in the Big Sky (Eastern Washington is #1 in all three categories)

The numbers are pointing to a Griz win. The numbers say I should be confident. I’m not confident.

Why? The team has dropped three of their last four games in an uninspiring fashion. Just last week, the Griz lost to Northern Colorado for the FIRST TIME since they joined the Big Sky Conference. Besides an opening win against St. Francis (who is going to the playoffs) and a road win at Northern Iowa, have the Griz played an impressive game? They’ve blown out bad teams (Mississippi Valley State, Sacramento State, Idaho State), beat a mediocre Southern Utah, and lost to everyone else.

I worry the Montana offense only looks good on paper. They’ve put up some massive numbers against shitty teams with bad defenses. It is hard for anyone that has watched this team to believe they have the second best offense in the Big Sky… they turn the ball over…they struggle big time in the red zone.

I worry that the Griz struggle against OK defenses, and this weekend they will play the best defense they’ve faced since September 10. The Bobcats are #2 in the Big Sky for defensive scoring!

I worry that the Griz defense, while playing tough for 95 percent of the game, seems to always give up some big plays at the worst time.

I worry that we have the worst kicking game in the history of college football (estimate)

And thanks to Hot Take Nate dropping this bit of knowledge, I’m starting to question Coach Bob Stitt:

“In 2015, Stitt’s team beat five teams with above .500 records (beat three other teams under .500). They lost to two teams with above .500 records and two teams with below .500 records. So far, in 2016, Stitt’s team has beat just one team above .500 (beat 5 teams at or below .500). They have lost 3 games to teams above .500 and 1 team at .500. Is it a regression? These are more of Stitt’s philosophies and kids this year than in 2015. Should he be improving instead of backtracking?”

Maybe. Yeah, he probably should be improving upon his first year.

The Griz are the favorite this weekend. Conventional wisdom and the best stats out there says this is true. But Donald Trump is the President-Elect and the Chicago Cubs are World Series Champs. I’m not ruling anything out, and I don’t have the same faith in conventional wisdom I did one month ago.

I say the Cats win in an ugly game. The flaws finally catch up to a flawed Griz team. Montana State 12 – Montana 10.

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