May 3, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Harrison Barnes (40) dribbles away from Memphis Grizzlies forward Tony Allen (9) as Marc Gasol (33) looks on during the third quarter in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Grizzlies 101-86. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2016-17 season upon us, we dive into what the Memphis Grizzlies’ should do on defense in order to advance to (and possibly win) the NBA Finals.

The Western Conference is the home to some of the NBA’s most lethal offenses. The Clippers are an annual top-3 offense, the Spurs have long been the pinnacle of team offense and the Warriors are something only dreamed up of in video games. What will the Memphis Grizzlies have to do to become good enough a defensive team to slow down (or even stop) these high-powered attacks?

Through this analysis, I’ll base most of my assessments on stopping the Warriors’ offense, since they were the gold standard last year and will probably be improved upon this year. It’s also beneficial to analyze stopping them, since the NBA is a copy-cat league and most teams will try to emulate some aspect of the Warriors success. Plus, hey, if you want to be the best, beat the best.

We’ll start out with the two positions that don’t need much more work for the Memphis Grizzlies: shooting guard and center.

Defensive Duo

Tony Allen and Marc Gasol will obviously be cornerstones for the Memphis Grizzlies’ defense. Both players have been awarded for their defensive play. Both players are among the top-15 active best defensive plus/minus leaders, with Gasol being 22nd all-time. Both players have two seasons where they’re ranked in the top-10 in defensive rating. Gasol won NBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2013 and has been regarded as one of the better defenders in the league for years.

Gasol is cleared to play after his injury last year and should have a similar defensive impact as his last few seasons. For his career, Gasol has a 3.0 DBPM. He’s not athletic, but he has the brains and length to make up for it. It always seems like he is in the right spot at the right moment. Centers may not be the current trend in the NBA, but Gasol is versatile enough to still be relevant.

Tony Allen has a career 2.2 DBPM and is regarded as one of the premier wing defenders in the league. He cites his love for playing defense in this Bleacher Report film session, stating:

Before practice starts, defense is the first thing we go over as a team in a film session. Then defense in scrimmages becomes a pride thing. It’s like, “I don’t want you to score on me, you can’t score on me,” and all this trash-talking, but it makes us better. Then I’ll work on my different layups I’m going to get in the game. I score a lot of my points in transition off steals.

Allen’s defensive mindset is contagious and several players throughout the years have cited him as an inspiration to play harder on that end. This year, however, players will have to do more than just talk the talk if they want to be considered contenders. Walking the walk will start off with one of Allen’s longtime teammates, Mike Conley.

Defending the Point

The point guard is arguably the most talented spot in the league, top to bottom. Only about five teams are without a true starting caliber point guard and many teams feature stars running the offense. Ignoring the studs in the east for now, let’s just focus on the guys playing point out west.

Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, George Hill, Eric Bledsoe and the list goes on. Almost every night in the west, Mike Conley will line up across from a great point guard. Defending that position and disrupting the offense should be the first emphasis for the Memphis Grizzlies’ defense.

For a few teams, the Memphis Grizzlies will be able to “hide” Conley on the off-ball guard and allow Tony Allen to defend the point. However, many teams still have scorers at both positions. The Warriors have Curry and Thompson. The Thunder have Westbrook and Oladipo. The Clippers have CP3 and Redick. The Trailblazers have Lillard and McCollum. Conley may be a similar offensive player statistically to Kyrie Irving, but at some point, Conley will have to step up to the plate defensively.

Size Matters Not

Conley, listed at 6-foot-1-inch, isn’t a big point guard by any means. He is also not in the same athletic category as the likes of Westbrook, Bledsoe and John Wall. To play defense against the elite talent at this position, Conley will have to rely on his wits. Conley is currently 82nd in steals per game all-time, which is a testament to his good hands. He finished 3rd in steals in 2012-13 and 2nd in 2011-2012, averaging 2.19 SPG.

Season G STL

▼ 2011-12 62 2.2 2012-13 80 2.2 2010-11 81 1.8 2013-14 73 1.5 2009-10 80 1.4 2014-15 70 1.3 2015-16 56 1.2 2008-09 82 1.1 2007-08 53 0.8

Per Basketball-Reference

Last season, Conley had his third lowest steals per game average. His steals will have to go back to the two per game range in order to really have an impact on defense. Conley will have to capitalize on the mental errors of opposing players, while not committing his own and overreaching. “Don’t reach young blood,” comes to mind.

The guards he will be facing are too quick and if Conley reaches too hard and misses, he’ll leave Gasol on an island and possibly force the team to over rotate. For the more athletic guards, shooting is a secondary choice. If Conley can move laterally and keep himself between the ball and the basket, he will partially neutralize their athleticism.

For guards like Steph Curry, who aren’t much more athletic than him, Conley needs to stay in their body. Curry is a once in a lifetime talent and guarding him comes down to being in the right position and praying his shot doesn’t fall. Conley needs to stay up in Curry’s chest and try and deny the ball. Part of defending Curry will be moving through the screens quickly and staying with him. If he is given an inch of space, he will pull the trigger.

Hands Up!

During the 2015-16 season, players shot 1.6 percent better than their average FG% when defended by Conley. Shots that were taken within 10-feet of the basket were killer, with players shooting 6.1 percent better than their average. Obviously, having Gasol back full-time will help Conley here, so Conley’s close shot defense should improve. Conley did force 3-point shooters to make 1.5% less than their average. Conley needs to keep staying out on perimeter players and force them to take highly contested shots. This will be especially important when facing the potential 3-point barrage from the Warriors.

Conley being the first point of attack on defense is a solid place to start. A team could do a lot worse than Conley as their primary ball defender. The other benefit for Memphis here is the potential of Wade Baldwin IV.

The Rookie

Wade Baldwin IV will be the wild card for the Memphis Grizzlies’ defense. He has the physical tools to be a great defender in the NBA. Bleacher Report cited his size in their 2016 draft preview:

Baldwin’s sales pitch to NBA teams starts with his physical profile. At 6’4″, 201.8 pounds, he possesses ideal size and strength for a ball-handler. He has an enormous 6’11 ¼” wingspan, the length of many power forwards.

You can see here and below that Baldwin does a good job of keeping his hands active and is able to contest his opponents shot without fouling. He is strong enough to move through screens and to get up into players, so larger guards won’t be able to post him up easily. DraftExpress also made note of his defensive capability:

Defensively, Baldwin’s size, with his elite 6’10” wingspan and developed upper body, gives him a considerable amount of potential to defend either guard position. When engaged, Baldwin is close to realizing that potential, as he has the lateral mobility to stay in front of his man, the length to close out and contest shots, and the strength to fight through screens. The problem is Baldwin is too frequently not engaged, and can be prone to being caught sleeping off the ball, especially ball watching looking for passing lanes to jump. Still, he has enormous potential on this side of the court, the effort is mostly there, and it’s easy to envision him becoming a plus defender in the NBA.

Baldwin definitely has the potential, but needs the mental aspect to develop more. If he’s not engaged on defense, wings will burn past him and he will leave the rest of the team scrambling. Teams like the Warriors and Clippers love to run their off-ball players through a ton of screens and Baldwin cannot lose sight of his man. If he can overcome his mental deficiencies on defense (which he should be able to), Baldwin could be a great defender. This would allow Memphis to play him at the 2 in a small-ball lineup featuring Conley, Baldwin, Allen, Parsons and Gasol. This lineup has the potential to be deadly defensively while still not sacrificing a lot on the offensive end.

Stopping Shooters

During the 2015 playoffs, Nyon Calculus ran an article titled “The Playoffs in a Make or Miss League – What IS A ‘Good’ Shot?.” This article documented how the Memphis Grizzlies were bothering Golden State shooters and what the effects of that were. The article goes into much more detail than I will, but here are a few notes.

First, look at the below graph. The x-axis shows the shot distance from the rim while the y-axis shows eFG%. You’ll notice the dip from about 7′ to 20′ before it rises back up. This is due to the value of a 3-point shot outweighing the value of a mid-range. Looking at the data, it’s obvious that there is a huge drop-off in eFG% when a shot is contested vs uncontested (about an 11 percent difference at 23′). Obviously, no one wants to leave shooters open, but Coach Fizdale really needs to emphasize getting a hand up in the shooters face.

Spot Check

Staying tight to shooters is extremely important. As noted above, Conley and whoever else is guarding him, will have to stay up on Steph Curry. Last season, he hit 54 percent of his spot up opportunities and had an eFG% of 75.7 percent. This was good enough to put him in the 99th percentile in the league. The only player who was better was J.J. Redick. He ran off screens on 38.7 percent of the Clippers’ possessions. Both players run through screen to get spot up opportunities, so defenders have to keep their head on a swivel. Klay Thompson also ran off screens 31 percent of the time.

Other players in the top 95th percentile for spot up shooting include Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, who the Memphis Grizzlies could very likely see in the postseason. The Blazers also could cause issues with both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Stopping spot up shooters comes down to good team communication and attempting to run them off of the 3-point line. Leaving a shooter open for a set shot is a death sentence if it happens too frequently in a game or series.

Chandler Parsons will also have to step up his defense with if the Grizzlies plan to go far. For his career, he has a 0.4 DBPM. His best season was in his rookie season of 2011-12. Parsons will have to be more active. Coach Fizdale believes that he has the tools to play like LeBron, but he will need to make a conscious effort on defense for Memphis to succeed. He needs to use his 6’9″ wingspan to disrupt shooters.

The Rip

Another issue that comes with guarding shooters closely is the popular “rip through” move. Although the NBA changed their ruling on this several seasons ago to not allow free throws, players will still make the move if a defenders hand is out. A couple of rip throughs and the defenders may start to question themselves. At that point, the shooters will be able to create space. Defenders need to stay up in shooters body off ball and then keep their hands in a solid defensive spot when on ball.

Covering the Pick-and-Roll

Every team in the league (and all of basketball, honestly) runs a pick-and-roll as part of their offense. However, several Western Conference teams run it more effectively. San Antonio runs the pick-and-pop with Aldridge and Parker, the Clippers run it through CP3 and whatever big is in and Golden State runs their small on big pick-and-roll. However, both the Clippers and Warriors will run small-on-big screens. Via The Ringer:

This action can leave big in a terrible spot. Do they switch or do they fight through? In the Clippers’ situation, switching seems to be the worst of two ideas. Switching leaves both defenders in mismatches. As earlier discussed, Conley isn’t a large guard and most likely will get torched by Blake in the low post. JaMychal Green (or whoever may be defending Griffin) may fare better than Conley vs. Griffin, but may still be at a disadvantage trying to guard Chris Paul. In the video above, teams seem to have this realization as well.

The problem most of the time though, is there is no hedge. Chris Paul’s defender worries too much about sticking with him and ignores Griffin moving towards the basket. A good hard hedge allows Griffin’s defender time to move through the screen and stay between him and the basket. Teams are also slow to rotate to help once Griffin beats his man. It’s a tough play to guard, but not impossible. In the video, Kostas Koufas manages to get back in front of Griffin and forces him into a fadeaway jumper. The Grizzlies should take this every time opposed to a layup or even a dunk.

Conley needs to hedge hard on Griffin and delay him a second in order for Green to fight past Paul and get back in front of Blake. If Conley doesn’t hedge and Blake gets that head of steam, Gasol could be forced to make a decision. Does he slide over and help on Griffin? Or does he stay home on Deandre Jordan? He has to pick one though due to Griffin’s passing abilities. If Gasol gets caught in no man’s land, Griffin has the ability to throw a short lob to a cutting Jordan. If Gasol commits to Griffin, the backside defender must slide into the lane. In any pick-and-roll set, slow rotation can lead to problems, especially when playing the Clippers.

The Golden Standard

However, Golden State’s pick and roll looks to be the most unique. Via the same Ringer article (mixed with some LeBron):

Curry (and sometimes Thompson) will set the screen here on a bigger defender and either slip the screen or pop out for an easy 3. It’s a difficult play to defend, especially when a bigger defender is the one getting screened. The Warriors ran this play often with Draymond Green as the ball handler and it could get even scarier with Kevin Durant in the mix. Having a 7-footer handling the ball who is a capable passer and great shooter, while probably the greatest shooter of all-time rolls will give coaches headaches.

Once again, rotation is key. Golden State does extremely well at swinging the ball around the perimeter. Memphis has to be willing to run its man off the 3-point line continuously. It’s hard to stop ball movement like this, but a concentrated effort does wonders. If defenders can stay aware of their man, they can get into a spot to at least contest the shot, which we’ve already seen has a positive effect for the defense. Once the shot goes up, Memphis needs to make sure they are prepared for a long rebound. If the Warriors are able to secure the offensive board, the defense might not be set and could allow a quick, wide open second chance shot. Now while there isn’t a foolproof way to stop this action, there have been teams that have had success and Memphis should look to emulate.

Should They Stay Home or Switch?

There’s no correct answer really, but we may have an idea of what Coach Fizdale will have his defense do.

Last season in The Finals, Cleveland switched on almost every single screen. Memphis may look to copy this idea since it ultimately lead to Cleveland winning the championship. However, depending on the personnel, this could be bad. If teams like the Spurs, Clippers or Thunder have their two talented big men in, switching could be bad on Memphis’ guards. However, if the Memphis Grizzlies adapt their own form of small ball, switching on every pick-and-roll becomes a reality. Per our very own Parker Fleming:

Chandler Parsons played roughly 600 minutes at the power forward position last season in Dallas. He averaged 21.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per 36 minutes a game. In addition, he had a true shooting percentage of 65.5%, which would rank top five in the league.

Sliding Parsons down to the 4 spot would give the Memphis Grizzlies the versatility to switch. Gasol is capable of sticking with some guards, but if his foot is still bothering him or he finds himself not quick enough, Brandan Wright can step up to the plate and be an athletic small-ball 5.

Whatever concept the Memphis Grizzlies decide to go with, they’ll need focus. Defending any NBA team is difficult, but being able to successfully defend the top of the West will be necessary, even if they are only able to hinder their offense. It will be interesting to see how the Memphis Grizzlies play going forward and how they defend the different areas of the game throughout the regular season and playoffs. If they can stay focused and follow Tony Allen and Marc Gasol’s lead, I expect Memphis to be a top-10 defensive team when it’s all said and done.