With the craziness of February behind us the Thai political landscape has shifted once again and what was once predicted and rumoured has now been confirmed.

Future Forward was dissolved by the Constitutional Court, in a case that was weak at best, and if you listen to the party’s now-banned leadership, completely politically motivated.

The censure debate has also come and gone with the government surviving completely intact. If rumours are to be believed, a backroom deal between Pheu Thai and the government also froze out the remnants of the Future Forward Party. Read more here.

February also saw the coalition government emerging stronger than it has ever been in terms of seats in parliaments. Defections, buy-outs, whatever you want to call it have shored up the Prayut Chan-ocha government and they are now in a position to push through key legislation.

Future Forward will have to regroup under the leadership of Pita Limjaroenrat and under a new banner (Move Forward), weakened by the ban on its former executive committee and disbanding.

The party may be down now but is still a force to be reckoned with in parliament with 55 seats.

Looking forward here are three rumours that may seem unlikely on face value but have been trading freely and often around the political water cooler:

Pheu Thai to join government coalition; Democrats, Anupong and Prawit out

Perhaps the most outrageous rumour to be making the rounds is the idea that Pheu Thai would join the governing coalition if the government dumps Generals Anupong Paochinda and Prawit Wongsuwan.

If this were to happen, the Democrat Party would have leave the coalition and have its stronger electoral mandate in a long time.

While unlikely to happen, it is interesting to note that a significant number of Palang Pracharath MPs were poached from Peu Thai or have a history with Thaksin-aligned parties including favourites Thammanat Prompow and Pareena Kraikupt.

Rating: Unlikely

Democrats to push through constitutional reform

According to party leader Jurin Laksanawisit, redrafting the flawed constitution was the major reason that the Democrat Party joined the coalition. Many Democrat MPs have paid lip-service to the need to democratise a constitution that enshrined military power but so far the constitutional-reform process has stagnated.

Now with Future Forward and the censure debate out of the way and the budget finally passed, the democrats can use their small mandate to try and address a major electoral promise.

Whether Palang Pracharath and its conservative backers would be willing to get rid of a automatic premier-appointing machine in the unelected senate is another question.

It is unlikely that Palang Pracharath would go out of its way to appease a spent, used, rudderless party.

Rating: Doubtful

Student protests force another coup

It has been a refreshing breath of fresh air to see students come out of the classrooms for the first time in a generation to call for change and to demand a stake at the table.

The students today seem more in-tune and aware than at any point since the 70s and are very clear-eyed about the challenges they face in trying to topple Thai conservatism.

As student leader Netiwit Chotiphatphaisal wrote in his op-ed for Thai Enquirer (read here), their struggle will not succeed in one month and maybe not even a year. This is a long fight and it remains to be seen whether the students have the stomach for such an undertaking.

There will be people that will try to co-opt their message along the way whether in the guise of friendly advice or monetary aid. They must do their utmost to avoid those traps.

If they do, and if they can organise, and if they can sustain their momentum then the chances of toppling the government could be within reach.

But how the government gets toppled remains to be seen and the possibility that widespread instability leads to another coup cannot be dismissed.

For now though, that is a distant, distant possibility. Organising the country-wide sentiment is the challenge now.

Rating: Not for awhile