'Don't ask' protesters stand after handcuffing themselves to the fence outside the White House. | AP Photo Is 'don't ask' repeal DOA?

A repeal of “don’t ask, don’t tell?” Don’t bet on it.

The window for action on reversing the ban on gays in the military is quickly closing, and the path to undoing the 17-year-old law is riddled with roadblocks: a crowded lame-duck calendar, Democratic defectors, and emboldened Republican senators who have no desire to hand a legislative victory to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.


If Democrats fail to pass the repeal of “don’t ask, don’t tell” next month — before Republicans take control of the House in January — it could be years before they get another shot.

“Unless Democrats completely neglect the tax-hike issue and everything else they’ve been talking about lately, like the DREAM Act, the START treaty and controversial nominees, they won’t be able to finish it,” said one senior Senate GOP aide.

The repeal of “don’t ask” has been attached to the defense authorization bill, and Senate Republicans have already blocked the bill once before over this issue.

And while advocates scrape for 60 votes to repeal “don’t ask, don’t tell,” there is no clear path to passage if the repeal remains embedded in the larger defense bill.

Reid (D-Nev.) pledged this week to bring the bill to the floor again next month, saying Congress must end “this discriminatory policy so that any American who wants to defend our country can do so.” And Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), who has led the fight for repeal, said Thursday he was “confident” there are at least 60 votes in the Senate to overcome another GOP filibuster.

“The movement to end the injustice of ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ is alive and well, and we’re going to keep fighting in the spirit of the American military until we get the job done,” said Lieberman, who was joined at a Capitol Hill news conference by a dozen Democratic senators who support the repeal.

But a handful of those 60 votes come with a condition: that both Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) agree to allow senators to offer amendments to and have an extensive debate on the bill.

Reid, however, doesn’t want an amendment free for all, and McConnell — who’s about to usher in a much larger class of Senate Republicans — isn’t compromising on any major issues these days.

McConnell’s office released a statement Thursday, questioning why Democrats are pushing the “don’t ask” repeal, the immigration-related DREAM Act and other issues when Americans say their top concern is the economy.

Lieberman said at least two Republicans, Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Dick Lugar of Indiana, indicated they would vote to take up the defense bill if there is a “fair and open amendment process.” And a spokesman for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she may support the bill if a host of conditions are met.

“This is a weighty, policy-laden bill that normally takes several weeks to debate and amend,” said Murkowski spokesman Michael Brumas. “If the majority attempts to push it through, allowing little or no debate or votes on amendments, Sen. Murkowski would be inclined to oppose those efforts.”

Two more wavering senators, Jim Webb (D-Va.) and Scott Brown (R-Mass.) also are in play. Both voted against repeal of “don’t ask,” but they also voted in committee for the defense authorization bill, which includes repeal language. That’s two more yes votes that repeal advocates should be able to count on their side, according to one Senate staffer. And retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) is thought to still be in play.

But for every new potential Republican who jumps aboard, there are other Democrats wavering. Sens. Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln, both moderate Arkansas Democrats, voted with Republicans to block the bill the last time it was considered in September. And Pryor said Thursday he’d likely vote no again in the lame duck.

“I might vote no on that again,” he said. “I hadn’t made a final decision yet, but I’d be leaning that way.”

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) wasn’t sure he’d support it either. “I just gotta see the bill. I haven’t seen it,” he said.

The Senate could be in session through Dec. 17, said Lieberman, who joked that he’d be willing to work through “the eighth day of Hanukkah” to get the bill passed.

The Human Rights Campaign recently deployed teams to key states to raise grass-roots awareness about the issue and urge moderate Democratic and GOP senators to get behind the repeal. Among those they’re targeting are Republicans Brown, Voinovich, Murkowski, Collins, and Olympia Snowe of Maine, as well as Democrats Webb and Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

“We’re cautiously optimistic but it remains to be seen,” said Joe Solmonese, president of HRC, the nation’s largest lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender advocacy group. “The only thing that’s clear is that this is the moment to get it done.”

While he fully backs the repeal, Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), the Armed Services Committee chairman tasked with shepherding the defense bill through the Senate, sought to tamp down Lieberman’s exuberance. Levin doesn’t want to be the first Armed Services chairman in 48 years to fail to pass a defense authorization bill, so he’s concerned about “don’t ask” bringing down his big bill.

“It’s a very difficult thing to get done,” Levin said, “and even if we can get to 60 votes, that is just the first of many, many steps.”

The Senate is still awaiting a Pentagon report that is expected to find that most troops believe that lifting the ban would have a “positive, mixed or non-existent” effect, according to The Washington Post. The results of the review, due Dec. 1, are critical to supporters of repeal, who say they believe there really is a “path to repeal” at this juncture — perhaps more so now because time is running out.

“I'm just hoping that there are no surprises in the report, because it will be crucial to our success, and that it's as pro-repeal overall as the leaks have indicated,” Richard Socarides, a former adviser on gay rights in the Clinton administration, told POLITICO. “If, after the report, Gates is willing to really push for repeal, then our chances go up. But even then, this is far from a done deal.”

Some legislators, like Arizona Sen. John McCain, the top Republican on the Armed Services who led the GOP filibuster against the bill two months ago, has said he would withhold judgment on repeal until he saw the results of the study. If the leaked report is accurate, it could reduce the opposition to repealing the policy.

But McCain drilled Gen. Carter Ham, co-chair of the Pentagon panel studying repeal, during a Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday. McCain asked how many respondents there were to the survey and other questions that hinted at his pessimism about its results.

McCain told POLITICO that the study is insufficient. The gay ban should not be repealed “until we get a study that assesses the impact on battle effectiveness and morale, which is not this [Dec. 1] study.” McCain also has called for congressional hearings on the Pentagon report, which Levin has agreed to.

And if they’re given the chance to offer amendments to the defense bill, Republicans could try to insert measures unpalatable to Democrats, including a ban on sending any Guantanamo Bay prisoners to the U.S. or tougher limits on the countries prisoners can be transferred to. Both proposals could win majority support in an up-or-down vote to attach them to the Senate bill, but they’d be sure to draw the ire of the Obama administration.

Reid spokesman Jim Manley said his boss always has been willing to allow senators on both sides of the aisle to offer amendments, adding that “the offer still stands.”

“Clearly, there are 60 votes to repeal ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ Clearly, there are 60 votes to pass the defense authorization bill,” Manley said. “The question is whether Republicans will hide behind procedural issues.

During an appearance on Fox News Thursday, McCain blasted Reid for trying to push through the repeal when so many other issues will be competing for the Senate’s attention after the Thanksgiving break. The chamber is expected to consider the START nuclear-arms treaty, the DREAM Act, the extension of unemployment benefits and Bush-era tax cuts, and a continuing resolution to keep the federal government funded into next year.

“Harry Reid must think that it's the last train out of town, this lame-duck session, because every day he announces we are going to do something else. …” McCain said. “All of that he's going to jam into a couple of weeks. It's going to be a very interesting exercise to try to watch here.”

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), also a member of Armed Services, called Reid’s repeal efforts “inappropriate” since Republicans will have added six new senators to their ranks by the time the new Congress convenes in January.

“I assume [Reid] thinks this is the best chance. But I think it’s very ill-advised for him to push something through in a lame-duck session that’s that controversial and got that much of a departure from the current law,” Wicker said. “That’s not what lame-duck sessions are for.”

But other senators, standing with gay-rights leaders and those discharged from the military over the policy, see ending the ban as a critical human-rights and equality issue.

“This is another discriminatory law,” said Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont), the Judiciary Committee chairman. “It is a systemic, corrosive charade that helps no one and hurts many, and it’s time it’s done away with.”

Josh Gerstein contributed to this story.