The first week of the season is in the books. Clearly, that means we can make conclusions for the entire rest of the season based on one game!

The first week of football is done. Thankfully we didn't have to wait very long to start week 2 (it's in a couple hours!).

What do we know now about all 32 NFL teams? Well, there isn't a lot we can be 100% confident about yet. But, that won't stop pundits and fans alike from jumping to the biggest of conclusions and using one game to extrapolate how the rest of the season will go.

Sure, one game is a rather small sample size. But if you base your opinion on how a team has performed "this season," well that game does represent 100% of the season so you can confidently express your opinion knowing that it's based on an entire seasons's worth of data.

Notable Quotes

The run game fell just shy of 2,000 yards last season (1,965), good enough for a No. 13 ranking. After one week the Chargers sit 31st in that category, despite what appeared to be a workable matchup with Arizona. Take out a 20-yard Ryan Mathews carry and he, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown combined for 23 yards on 19 rushing attempts. - Sports Illustrated

If Carson Palmer had played that well against the Chargers a few years ago, he’d still be with the Raiders. - ProFootballTalk

With the Bolts up 17-6 in the fourth quarter in Arizona, 1-0 was there to be had. Then we experienced misplays by Philip Rivers. ... And drops from the receivers, including Keenan Allen at the end. ... And a backup center not snapping the football punctually, forcing San Diego to call a timeout. So many little football things deep-sixed the Chargers, and now they are a game back of those mighty Broncos in the AFC West. - NFL.com

Division Averages

Division Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference NFC West 10.4318 11.1184 -0.6866 NFC South 14.4318 13.5789 0.8529 NFC North 14.6591 14.5395 0.1196 AFC East 18.7045 15.6184 3.0861 AFC North 15.8409 16.4342 -0.5933 AFC West 15.4318 17.8947 -2.4629 AFC South 23.3636 20.8553 2.5083 NFC East 19.1364 21.9605 -2.8241

There will be some extra movement on these graphs this week because we're incorporating the "Objective" rankings this week and they are a little off from the Subjective rankings. So don't put a lot of stock in the differences from last week.

Stock Rising

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference MIN 25.364 14.214 11.150 TEN 27.364 16.554 10.810 BUF 29.546 20.691 8.855 MIA 21.636 13.268 8.368 ATL 18.273 11.393 6.880

Stock Falling

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference KC 16.273 24.333 -8.060 CHI 11.727 19.548 -7.821 BAL 11.455 18.845 -7.390 GB 4.455 11.226 -6.771 NE 3.818 10.060 -6.242

Subjective Average

As a refresher: these rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers. I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

Subjective Seahawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.083 0.099 Broncos 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2.000 0.000 49ers 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 3.167 2.469 Bengals 5 4 3 4 5 6 5 8 7 5 8 4 5.333 3.758 Eagles 4 5 8 5 4 11 4 5 4 7 7 5 5.750 1.796 Saints 6 6 10 7 9 7 11 6 6 4 5 6 6.917 -2.826 Packers 8 11 6 9 12 3 7 4 5 8 6 7 7.167 -2.712 Patriots 7 7 9 6 10 4 12 11 10 6 4 8 7.833 -4.015 Falcons 9 14 5 10 13 10 10 15 8 11 10 11 10.500 7.773 Colts 10 10 16 8 15 8 13 7 11 10 9 9 10.500 -1.682 Panthers 11 8 18 13 6 9 6 9 13 9 12 12 10.500 3.864 Cardinals 14 12 7 14 8 12 8 13 14 14 11 10 11.417 1.856 Steelers 12 15 11 12 16 13 18 10 9 16 13 13 13.167 0.833 Lions 13 9 12 18 11 15 15 14 12 12 17 14 13.500 3.591 Dolphins 15 13 13 11 7 20 9 16 21 13 18 15 14.250 7.386 Chargers 16 17 14 16 18 17 14 22 15 15 15 16 16.250 -4.704 Ravens 20 16 15 17 20 14 17 17 17 18 14 17 16.833 -5.378 Jets 21 20 17 15 19 16 16 12 20 19 16 18 17.417 2.401 Vikings 17 19 20 19 17 18 19 20 19 21 19 20 19.000 6.364 Bears 18 18 23 20 22 19 22 18 16 17 20 23 19.667 -7.940 Titans 19 21 19 21 14 21 20 21 23 20 25 19 20.250 7.114 Bills 23 22 21 23 21 26 21 23 24 23 24 21 22.667 6.879 Texans 22 24 24 22 24 24 26 19 22 25 28 22 23.500 4.955 Chiefs 25 23 27 24 23 22 23 24 18 22 29 24 23.667 -7.394 Giants 26 26 22 27 29 23 25 25 25 26 23 29 25.500 -4.318 Buccaneers 24 29 29 25 25 29 24 29 27 27 21 25 26.167 -5.167 Cowboys 27 27 30 28 32 27 28 26 26 24 22 30 27.250 -4.250 Browns 29 25 25 30 28 31 29 28 28 28 27 26 27.833 0.985 Jaguars 30 28 31 26 27 30 27 27 30 30 26 27 28.250 0.568 Redskins 28 31 28 29 31 25 30 32 29 29 32 28 29.333 -4.515 Rams 32 30 26 31 26 28 31 30 31 32 31 32 30.000 -8.364 Raiders 31 32 32 32 30 32 32 31 32 31 30 31 31.333 0.576

Observations:

Sigh, CBS had ONE JOB: to ensure the Seahawks were the unanimous top team. But NOOO, they had to ruin it. You're on thin ice, CBS; THIN ICE!

You could pretty confidently say the top three teams in the NFL are Seattle, Denver, and San Francisco.

Interesting that the Cardinals rose about half as much (2.091 spots) as the Chargers fell this week (-4.818).

Most rankers have the Chargers right around the middle, between 14-17. But then there's SportingNews who has them at 22nd.

Speaking of odd rankings, SI has the Titans at 14?

The Chiefs looked bad on Sunday and their ranking reflects that.

on Sunday and their ranking reflects that. Usually it takes about 4-6 weeks before the pundits give up on the Rams. Their patience is much less this year.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Refresher again: Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set. For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most consistently–ranked to least consistently–ranked.

Subjective Seahawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.276 -0.299 Broncos 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0.408 -0.018 49ers 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 0.687 -0.463 Raiders 31 32 32 32 30 32 32 31 32 31 30 31 0.745 0.457 Vikings 17 19 20 19 17 18 19 20 19 21 19 20 1.155 -1.551 Bills 23 22 21 23 21 26 21 23 24 23 24 21 1.491 0.334 Bengals 5 4 3 4 5 6 5 8 7 5 8 4 1.546 0.103 Jaguars 30 28 31 26 27 30 27 27 30 30 26 27 1.738 0.042 Browns 29 25 25 30 28 31 29 28 28 28 27 26 1.772 -0.028 Ravens 20 16 15 17 20 14 17 17 17 18 14 17 1.863 -0.448 Redskins 28 31 28 29 31 25 30 32 29 29 32 28 1.929 -0.195 Saints 6 6 10 7 9 7 11 6 6 4 5 6 1.977 1.077 Eagles 4 5 8 5 4 11 4 5 4 7 7 5 2.046 0.741 Rams 32 30 26 31 26 28 31 30 31 32 31 32 2.082 -0.378 Chargers 16 17 14 16 18 17 14 22 15 15 15 16 2.087 0.163 Giants 26 26 22 27 29 23 25 25 25 26 23 29 2.102 -0.147 Texans 22 24 24 22 24 24 26 19 22 25 28 22 2.217 -0.094 Bears 18 18 23 20 22 19 22 18 16 17 20 23 2.285 0.374 Lions 13 9 12 18 11 15 15 14 12 12 17 14 2.432 0.003 Jets 21 20 17 15 19 16 16 12 20 19 16 18 2.465 0.428 Buccaneers 24 29 29 25 25 29 24 29 27 27 21 25 2.478 -0.476 Cardinals 14 12 7 14 8 12 8 13 14 14 11 10 2.499 0.046 Patriots 7 7 9 6 10 4 12 11 10 6 4 8 2.511 1.398 Titans 19 21 19 21 14 21 20 21 23 20 25 19 2.521 0.136 Packers 8 11 6 9 12 3 7 4 5 8 6 7 2.544 1.468 Steelers 12 15 11 12 16 13 18 10 9 16 13 13 2.544 0.949 Falcons 9 14 5 10 13 10 10 15 8 11 10 11 2.566 -1.548 Cowboys 27 27 30 28 32 27 28 26 26 24 22 30 2.586 0.727 Chiefs 25 23 27 24 23 22 23 24 18 22 29 24 2.593 -0.270 Colts 10 10 16 8 15 8 13 7 11 10 9 9 2.693 0.612 Panthers 11 8 18 13 6 9 6 9 13 9 12 12 3.253 -0.030 Dolphins 15 13 13 11 7 20 9 16 21 13 18 15 4.003 0.611

Observations:

Vikings pretty solidly at ~20th spot.

Dolphins very inconsistently-ranked, but that'll happen when their ranking spread goes from 7th to 20th.

Objective Average

Look what makes a return this week!

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

Objective Seahawks 2 1 1 7 4 1 1 2.429 -2.429 49ers 3 2 3 6 3 2 3 3.143 -3.143 Broncos 1 5 2 4 6 3 2 3.286 -3.286 Bengals 8 6 8 10 9 6 8 7.857 -7.857 Panthers 11 4 13 19 7 5 5 9.143 -9.143 Vikings 13 8 21 1 1 15 7 9.429 -9.429 Saints 6 12 5 25 18 7 4 11.000 -11.000 Cardinals 20 3 15 9 19 4 9 11.286 -11.286 Eagles 12 13 7 5 15 12 17 11.571 -11.571 Lions 18 20 9 3 2 17 15 12.000 -12.000 Dolphins 19 7 19 11 8 10 12 12.286 -12.286 Patriots 4 14 6 22 25 9 6 12.286 -12.286 Falcons 17 10 10 8 14 13 14 12.286 -12.286 Titans 16 11 26 2 5 11 19 12.857 -12.857 Chargers 9 9 14 24 20 8 18 14.571 -14.571 Packers 5 19 4 26 22 20 11 15.286 -15.286 Steelers 10 16 17 21 10 16 25 16.429 -16.429 Bills 14 15 28 17 11 19 27 18.714 -18.714 Colts 21 18 12 29 21 14 20 19.286 -19.286 Bears 7 26 11 16 28 27 21 19.429 -19.429 Jets 15 17 24 18 17 24 23 19.714 -19.714 Ravens 23 22 18 23 27 23 10 20.857 -20.857 Buccaneers 22 21 22 14 26 25 26 22.286 -22.286 Texans 25 31 29 20 12 26 22 23.571 -23.571 Redskins 24 32 25 13 24 31 24 24.714 -24.714 Browns 28 29 30 12 16 29 31 25.000 -25.000 Chiefs 27 25 16 31 30 18 28 25.000 -25.000 Giants 29 27 20 30 29 28 13 25.143 -25.143 Rams 26 24 27 32 32 22 16 25.571 -25.571 Raiders 32 30 31 15 13 30 30 25.857 -25.857 Cowboys 31 23 23 27 31 21 29 26.429 -26.429 Jaguars 30 28 32 28 23 32 32 29.286 -29.286

Observations:

Ignore the "Change in Value" column.

Wow. 8 of the top 10 teams on the objective average list are NFC teams. Once again the class of the NFL?

Another wow: two separate lists rank the Vikings as first.

These rankings can be relatively unreliable though because they only have one game's worth of data, or rely heavily on preseason projections. The more data they get in, the more accurate they become (generally).

The Dallas Cowboys ... #SadTrombone

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective 49ers 3 2 3 6 3 2 3 1.245 1.245 Bengals 8 6 8 10 9 6 8 1.355 1.355 Broncos 1 5 2 4 6 3 2 1.666 1.666 Seahawks 2 1 1 7 4 1 1 2.129 2.129 Falcons 17 10 10 8 14 13 14 2.864 2.864 Jaguars 30 28 32 28 23 32 32 3.057 3.057 Jets 15 17 24 18 17 24 23 3.534 3.534 Cowboys 31 23 23 27 31 21 29 3.812 3.812 Buccaneers 22 21 22 14 26 25 26 3.881 3.881 Eagles 12 13 7 5 15 12 17 3.923 3.923 Dolphins 19 7 19 11 8 10 12 4.527 4.527 Steelers 10 16 17 21 10 16 25 5.039 5.039 Ravens 23 22 18 23 27 23 10 5.055 5.055 Panthers 11 4 13 19 7 5 5 5.083 5.083 Colts 21 18 12 29 21 14 20 5.119 5.119 Rams 26 24 27 32 32 22 16 5.233 5.233 Chiefs 27 25 16 31 30 18 28 5.398 5.398 Redskins 24 32 25 13 24 31 24 5.750 5.750 Chargers 9 9 14 24 20 8 18 5.803 5.803 Giants 29 27 20 30 29 28 13 5.841 5.841 Texans 25 31 29 20 12 26 22 5.876 5.876 Bills 14 15 28 17 11 19 27 6.017 6.017 Cardinals 20 3 15 9 19 4 9 6.341 6.341 Lions 18 20 9 3 2 17 15 6.803 6.803 Vikings 13 8 21 1 1 15 7 6.842 6.842 Browns 28 29 30 12 16 29 31 7.091 7.091 Saints 6 12 5 25 18 7 4 7.290 7.290 Raiders 32 30 31 15 13 30 30 7.549 7.549 Titans 16 11 26 2 5 11 19 7.624 7.624 Bears 7 26 11 16 28 27 21 7.688 7.688 Patriots 4 14 6 22 25 9 6 7.722 7.722 Packers 5 19 4 26 22 20 11 7.995 7.995

Observations:

Consensus here generally does indicate confidence in a team's performance. So 49ers, Bengals, Broncos are all about where they should be.

Packers, Patriots, Bears, Titans, and Raiders are all over the map.

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

Subj vs Obj Seahawks 1.083 2.429 1.756 -0.574 Broncos 2.000 3.286 2.643 -0.643 49ers 3.167 3.143 3.155 2.481 Bengals 5.333 7.857 6.595 2.496 Eagles 5.750 11.571 8.661 -1.115 Saints 6.917 11.000 8.958 -4.867 Panthers 10.500 9.143 9.821 4.543 Patriots 7.833 12.286 10.060 -6.242 Packers 7.167 15.286 11.226 -6.771 Cardinals 11.417 11.286 11.351 1.922 Falcons 10.500 12.286 11.393 6.880 Lions 13.500 12.000 12.750 4.341 Dolphins 14.250 12.286 13.268 8.368 Vikings 19.000 9.429 14.214 11.150 Steelers 13.167 16.429 14.798 -0.798 Colts 10.500 19.286 14.893 -6.075 Chargers 16.250 14.571 15.411 -3.865 Titans 20.250 12.857 16.554 10.810 Jets 17.417 19.714 18.566 1.252 Ravens 16.833 20.857 18.845 -7.390 Bears 19.667 19.429 19.548 -7.821 Bills 22.667 18.714 20.691 8.855 Texans 23.500 23.571 23.536 4.919 Buccaneers 26.167 22.286 24.226 -3.226 Chiefs 23.667 25.000 24.333 -8.060 Giants 25.500 25.143 25.321 -4.139 Browns 27.833 25.000 26.417 2.401 Cowboys 27.250 26.429 26.839 -3.839 Redskins 29.333 24.714 27.024 -2.206 Rams 30.000 25.571 27.786 -6.150 Raiders 31.333 25.857 28.595 3.314 Jaguars 28.250 29.286 28.768 0.050

Observations:

Only 3 AFC teams in the top 12 teams.

3 of the 4 worst-ranked NFC teams come from the NFC East.

When combining the averages, the Seahawks, Broncos, and 49ers are heads and shoulders above everyone else.

Overall, Vikings climbed 11 spots this week compared to their subjective ranking last week. Much of that is thanks to their objective ranking.

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

Subj vs Obj 49ers 3.167 3.143 0.933 -0.217 Broncos 2.000 3.286 1.230 0.804 Seahawks 1.083 2.429 1.462 0.887 Bengals 5.333 7.857 1.915 0.472 Jaguars 28.250 29.286 2.367 0.671 Falcons 10.500 12.286 2.815 -1.299 Jets 17.417 19.714 3.109 1.072 Cowboys 27.250 26.429 3.120 1.261 Buccaneers 26.167 22.286 3.596 0.642 Ravens 16.833 20.857 3.921 1.610 Giants 25.500 25.143 3.923 1.674 Chiefs 23.667 25.000 3.924 1.061 Chargers 16.250 14.571 3.976 2.052 Texans 23.500 23.571 3.979 1.668 Steelers 13.167 16.429 3.990 2.395 Eagles 5.750 11.571 4.025 2.720 Panthers 10.500 9.143 4.078 0.795 Rams 30.000 25.571 4.170 1.710 Bills 22.667 18.714 4.287 3.130 Dolphins 14.250 12.286 4.309 0.917 Cardinals 11.417 11.286 4.331 1.878 Redskins 29.333 24.714 4.415 2.291 Lions 13.500 12.000 4.617 2.188 Browns 27.833 25.000 4.730 2.930 Bears 19.667 19.429 5.009 3.098 Saints 6.917 11.000 5.092 4.192 Raiders 31.333 25.857 5.322 5.034 Patriots 7.833 12.286 5.529 4.416 Colts 10.500 19.286 5.674 3.593 Titans 20.250 12.857 6.176 3.791 Vikings 19.000 9.429 6.278 3.572 Packers 7.167 15.286 6.556 5.480

Observations:

The Packers and Colts didn't look that great last week, but was it just a fluke?

The Vikings have the opposite problem, as do the Titans.

Yeah, we're all in agreement: 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks are all good. So are the Bengals.

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

Subj vs Obj Colts 10.500 19.286 8.786 17.604 Packers 7.167 15.286 8.119 12.574 Eagles 5.750 11.571 5.821 13.367 Patriots 7.833 12.286 4.452 8.270 Saints 6.917 11.000 4.083 8.174 Ravens 16.833 20.857 4.024 15.479 Steelers 13.167 16.429 3.262 17.262 Bengals 5.333 7.857 2.524 11.615 Jets 17.417 19.714 2.298 22.116 Falcons 10.500 12.286 1.786 20.059 Seahawks 1.083 2.429 1.345 2.527 Chiefs 23.667 25.000 1.333 17.606 Broncos 2.000 3.286 1.286 3.286 Jaguars 28.250 29.286 1.036 29.854 Texans 23.500 23.571 0.071 28.526 49ers 3.167 3.143 -0.024 5.612 Cardinals 11.417 11.286 -0.131 13.142 Bears 19.667 19.429 -0.238 11.489 Giants 25.500 25.143 -0.357 20.825 Cowboys 27.250 26.429 -0.821 22.179 Panthers 10.500 9.143 -1.357 13.007 Lions 13.500 12.000 -1.500 15.591 Chargers 16.250 14.571 -1.679 9.867 Dolphins 14.250 12.286 -1.964 19.672 Browns 27.833 25.000 -2.833 25.985 Buccaneers 26.167 22.286 -3.881 17.119 Bills 22.667 18.714 -3.952 25.594 Rams 30.000 25.571 -4.429 17.207 Redskins 29.333 24.714 -4.619 20.199 Raiders 31.333 25.857 -5.476 26.433 Titans 20.250 12.857 -7.393 19.971 Vikings 19.000 9.429 -9.571 15.793

Observations:

This can be a fun chart to look at as the year goes on. It's been pretty good at predicting which teams will have preseason success, and who will flame out. But, this early in the season it's just fun to look at.

Generally, when a team has a much higher subjective average than objective average, I would call them "Overrated." So in this instance, the Colts and Packers would be "overrated." I'm not ready to slap that label there yet.

Same story on the opposite end, the Titans and Vikings would generally be called "Underrated." Not yet.

If there's a silver lining for us Chargers fans, the Chargers are slightly underrated.

Sources