I was lunching with a couple of politically active attorneys Tuesday, and the big thing they wanted to know was: what's the turnout going to look like in November in Oregon, and how is that going to affect the U.S. Senate race?

It's a common question and one that usually leaves me shrugging. But there's a new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Myspace poll (wow, that's a mouthful) that sheds some light on the subject.

The new survey doesn't predict turnout but it does confirm the conventional wisdom that there is indeed a potential wave of new and occasional voters who heavily favor Democrat Barack Obama. It found that among those who haven't voted before or who failed to vote in 2004, Obama is favored 61 percent to 30 percent for Republican John McCain.

So, clearly, if these voters show up in any kind of numbers, it could have a huge impact on the presidential race. NBC's First Read calculated that if turnout goes up by similar percentages as it did in 2004, it could flip Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia into the Democratic column.

If there is that big increase, that still leaves open the question of how it will affect Oregon's Senate race. Would those new and lapsed voters who so heavily favor Obama also vote Democratic in the Senate race? Will they even vote in the race at all or will we see another big undervote like we did in the May primary? That's when more than 91,000 voters - 14 percent of the total - cast ballots in the D presidential race but failed to vote in the heated Senate primary between House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Portland consultant Steve Novick.