Editor's note: This story will be updated regularly throughout the day as conditions change.

8 p.m. update

Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development, and a tropical depression will likely form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend or early next week.

Formation chance through 48 hours: 50 percent

Formation chance through 5 days: 80 percent.

Tropical depression, storm possible next week

A broad area of low pressure centered near the northeast coast of Honduras is drifting northwest and producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity from Central America east-northeast across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola.

Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive enough to allow slow development.

A tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwest Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwest to north.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains, primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.

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Formation chance through 48 hours: 40 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days: 70 percent.

Will the system impact Florida?

The tropical threat stands between Florida and more seasonable conditions likely to arrive in Florida and the Southeast by mid-October, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.

Early next week, as the low enters the southern Gulf of Mexico, lessening shear, abundant moisture, and a favorable outflow pattern could bring the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday, Truchelut said.

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The storm, which would be named Michael, will be caught between the resilient ridge located over the U.S. East Coast and a powerful front advancing east across the Plains, Truchelut said.

In general, if Michael develops faster or farther northwest, the Central Gulf would be more at risk, while a slower or southeast consolidation favors the Florida peninsula. At this stage, all Gulf options remain possibilities, he said.

Tropical Storm Leslie

Tropical Storm Leslie is maintaining 65-mph winds and waves generated by the storm are expected to increase along the coasts of Atlantic Canada and New England later today.

Interactive map: See where models project storms will go

Light winds out of the east will make the surf look more inviting along the Treasure Coast, but the National Weather Service has issued a high rip current risk. The warning is in effect through this evening.

Location: 455 miles northeast of Bermuda

Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph

Movement: north-northwest at 9 mph

Next advisory: 5 p.m.

Interactive map: Where is Tropical Storm Leslie going?

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located 455 miles northeast of Bermuda.

Leslie is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph.

A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn toward the east and east-southeast is expected Saturday.

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Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts. A slight weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Leslie remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles.

Hazards affecting land from Tropical Storm Leslie

Surf: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeast coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few days.

Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada today.

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Along Treasure Coast: Swells from distant Tropical Storm Leslie will lead to a high risk for dangerous rip currents today on the Treasure Coast through this evening.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a high rip current risk,.

Rip currents will be present all day; however, the threat will be highest through early this afternoon due to tidal effects.

Lighter east winds may make the surf look more inviting today; however, life-threatening rip currents will be present.