New year, new Lib Dem leader (probably) After the party’s autumn federal conference, I remarked how little speculation, plotting and manoeuvering there had been at what will, most likely, have been the party’s last autumn conference with Vince Cable as leader. It was almost as if the party knows but is ignoring Vince Cable’s announcement that he will stand down as leader once Brexit is resolved. Technically, that might mean 2047, but more realistically it means when the political storms clear for a while at some point in 2019. Just as 1974-75 saw two general elections and a referendum in short order, it’s just possible 2019 may see such a crowded political calendar that not only does Phil Cowley need to fire up a bot ghostwriter to keep up with his book writing but also that there never is that clear moment for Vince Cable to stand down. Possible, but not likely. Which is why gently, politely and discreetly both Ed Davey and Jo Swinson are working their way through just the sort of steps you would expect of someone intending to run for party leader within the year. Will both stand? Probably, but it’s worth bearing in mind that both thought about and decided against standing last time. With last time not that long ago, it’d be foolish to assume that both automatically will. Another person who didn’t stand last time is Layla Moran. Many people want her to stand next time, but so far she seems set on her course of sitting out this contest on the basis of being a newly elected MP with a small majority and big boundary changes. Expect though her to come under more pressure to stand as those reasons for hesitation also flow from a strength: her newness to Parliament which also means that unlike Davey or Swinson, Moran was not a minister in the coalition government. Not being a minister didn’t in the end help out Tim Farron’s leadership that much. But the idea that the best way for the party to recover is to move on from the coalition generation is likely to result in many wishing Layla Moran does stand. All of which is why if you fancy a political flutter, my tip for the Polling Matters / Political Betting podcast back in September was to look out for someone such as Christine Jardine: another non-minister MP and also someone who would break the party’s run of 100% male party leaders. With all three of the favourites being people who decided not to run last time, there’s likely to be some value in a bet at decent odds on someone else. But one lesson from history is worth remembering. Whilst it is traditional that the early favourite does not win Conservative Party leadership contests, in the case of the Lib Dems the early favourite does. There’s often a surprisingly strong challenge from someone else, but they fail and the favourite wins. Which means the chances are next Christmas’s edition will be discussing the outlook for new party leader, Jo Swinson and hoping that the surprisingly strong second-place finisher finds a productive role too.