MONTREAL—Stephen Harper’s Conservative party has taken a commanding lead in the federal election race, a new poll suggests.

With less than a month to go in the campaign, and heading into the first of three leaders debates, the Tories have moved ahead of their rivals with the support of 35.4 per cent of voters, according to the Ekos poll conducted for Montreal’s La Presse newspaper.

Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have 26.3 per cent support and the NDP has the backing of 24.5 per cent of respondents. The poll questioned 2,343 people between Sept. 17 and Sept. 22 and is considered accurate to within two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The results would seem to smash the notion of a three-way horserace that has been recorded in polls conducted through the first eight weeks of the election campaign.

“If (the Conservatives) keep those numbers up they’re very close to a majority — if not there already,” said pollster Frank Graves. “The numbers are about as good as we had for the final weekend of polling (in the 2011 election) when they achieved their majority.”

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Graves credits the Tory swing into the lead both on the missteps of Harper’s opponents and the targeted, emotional appeal to traditional Conservative voters that is bringing them back into the fold.

“It’s clear that there has been growth in some of the constituencies they won their majority with in 2011— people who had been sitting on the sidelines unhappy with them or whatever they were doing,” the pollster said. “They seem to have returned as a consequence of what has been going on over the last week.”

Harper may also be getting a credibility boost out of the wrangling about the importance of balanced budgets.

Trudeau’s Liberals have committed to infrastructure spending that would result in three years of deficits, arguing that this is the right time to make such large capital investments. The Conservatives have committed to balanced budgets after several years of deficits following the economic downturn in 2008. Mulcair’s NDP have also pledged balanced budgets, saying they would increase the corporate-tax rate and cancel Tory initiatives like income-splitting to pay for their promises.

Graves said the NDP’s commitment in the campaign to keep the books in the black may be “adding legitimacy to Harper’s claims that this is an important achievement.”

The poll results now show the Conservatives with clear leads in British Columbia, Alberta, the Prairie provinces and in Ontario, where 38.7 per cent of respondents are backing the Tories compared to 30.3 per cent for the Liberals and 19.9 per cent for the NDP.

Mulcair’s party still leads in Quebec with 32.8 per cent voter support, but the Tories have experienced a surge in support, rising to 23.7 per cent in the province.

“I think it’s in the Quebec City region and I think it’s related to the niqab and their response to the Syrian refugees,” Graves said.

The Conservatives have staked out a strong position in the case of a Muslim woman who challenged a government edict that she must remove her niqab in order to take part in a Canadian citizenship ceremony. The federal rule was struck down in court, but the Tories intend to appeal the decision and have pledged to bring in a new law if they are re-elected.

Harper has also taken a go-slow approach to the Syrian refugee crisis, balancing the need to help with the need to ensure the security of the country. Provinces, municipalities and individual benefactors have come forward to complain about federal foot-dragging, but Graves said the cautious approach has paid off with the Tory base.

The poll also asked provided some insight into the vows this week of both the Liberal and NDP leaders not to prop up a Conservative minority government if that is the outcome of the Oct. 19 vote. Both Trudeau and Mulcair left open the possibility of working with one another.

The Ekos survey showed overwhelming support among respondents who considered themselves Liberal or NDP supporters for a coalition rather than having to endure another federal government led by Harper’s Tories.

“For those voters, job one is to get rid of the government,” Graves said. “Their fealty to the party is secondary. They want change, but they also want progressive change.”

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