2020 Wisconsin Local & Supreme Court Preview & Open Thread

Almost every election for the next few weeks has been postponed, but not today’s local and Presidential Primary elections in Wisconsin, which need to stay on schedule as the terms begin in just a few weeks. Polls close at 9p ET; However, it’s not entirely clear if any results will come then or if a prior judge’s order that all results must be embargoed until next Monday will stand. The biggest local elections at stake are races for Milwaukee Mayor and County Executive.

Supreme Court: First though, of perhaps the greatest partisan interest is that there is also a seat on the State Supreme Court up today. Conservative incumbent Daniel Kelly is facing off with liberal lower court judge Jill Karofsky. Kelly took 50.1% in the first round with Karofsky taking 37% and another liberal taking the remainder. It remains to be seen how the world disintegrating in the meantime will affect these results, and the race seems basically impossible to handicap.

Milwaukee-Mayor: Milwaukee has a population of 595K, which breaks down as roughly 40% Black, 35% White, and 20% Hispanic. The city has five major socioeconomic regions. Around downtown and along the lakefront (especially to the north of downtown, but also in smaller areas to the south) is an upscale hipster and limousine liberal area – basically Chicago Lakefront Liberals priced out of Chicago. Much of the northern half of the city is Black-majority, with very poor areas near downtown (which habitually rank as some of the nation’s worst pockets of urban poverty) and middle-class Black suburban areas at the city’s far-flung northwest tip. The inner southern part of the city is a Hispanic-majority area, generally poor, with some pockets of both lower-middle-class White-ethnics and hipsters. Finally, the city’s southern and western edges, which comprise four fingers protruding south, west-southwest, west, and west-northwest, are lower-middle class White-ethnic inner suburban areas that are politically swingy. All groups except the last are heavily Democratic, and Milwaukee has a PVI of D+29.

Incumbent Tom Barrett (D) is seeking a fifth term. Barrett is a longtime pol who served in Congress in the 90s before an unsuccessful 2002 run for Governor, and then bouncing back to become Mayor a year and a half later. Barrett is an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies. His tenure as Mayor has been regarded as moderately successful; he has made few enemies, but has generally not had major accomplishments either. His biggest controversies have been his championing of a new streetcar project which critics have considered a wasteful boondoggle, and persistent issues with crime in the city’s poorest neighborhoods. However, Barrett still seems at least moderately popular in the city, particularly with high-turnout White liberals, and is well-funded with a warchest in the high 6-figures. Barrett took an even 50% in the first round.

Taking second with 31% was State Sen. Lena Taylor (D), who has represented the middle-class Black neighborhoods of the city’s outer North side in the legislature for 18 years. She is running on a far-left platform, with her key policy plank being an outright cut in spending on policing, and is known as a fiery speaker. However, Taylor does have some surprisingly syncretic elements of her political philosophy, finding common ground with GOP majorities in the legislature on some school choice and second amendment issues. Taylor’s campaign has been underfunded, but she does have strong appeal in the city’s black community.

Given Barrett’s strong performance in the first round, and the fact that most of the rest of the vote went to a white moderate whose voters will likely choose Barrett over Taylor, the incumbent looks like a substantial favorite, especially with the coronavirus shaking up the world in the interim and keeping Taylor from gaining citywide organizational support. However, Taylor could still have a chance to pull the upset if Black turnout is high and she can poach some more moderate anti-Barrett votes. Thus, Barrett overall seems a strong but not prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Milwaukee, WI-CE: Milwaukee County, which has a population of 950K, includes the city of Milwaukee and essentially all its first-ring suburbs. In addition to the city of Milwaukee as described above, it includes upscale limousine liberal suburbs to the northeast and swingy to GOP-leaning middle- to lower-middle-class suburbs to the south and west. It has a PVI of D+17. The seat is open as incumbent Chris Abele (D), an iconoclastic pol who veered from mainstream liberal to DINO – and then back – over his decade in office, is retiring.

State Sen. and 2016 candidate Chris Larson (D) took the top spot in the first round with 37%. Larson is making a second bid after losing his insurgent challenge to Abele from the left four years ago. Larson has represented downtown Milwaukee, the upscale lakefront areas, and its middle-class southeastern suburbs for a decade, rising to become Senate Democratic leader. Larson is probably best characterized as an establishment-friendly bold progressive on both fiscal and cultural issues.

Coming in second with a stronger-than-expected 34% was State Rep. David Crowley (D). Crowley has represented a poor, majority-Black seat on the north side of Milwaukee City for two terms. He seems to be running as an Obamaesque aspirational mainstream liberal, a bit to Larson’s right. Though his fundraising for this race has been mediocre, high Black turnout in the primary allowed him to turn in a surprisingly strong performance.

The two eliminated candidates were a White establishment liberal (whose votes probably go more to Larson) and a Republican (whose voters probably don’t go strongly to either candidate). Thus, Larson seems like a moderate favorite in the general, especially with white progressives likely to turn out in force for the Presidential primary and state Supreme Court race. However, Crowley has a chance to pull the upset if he can forge a coalition of White moderates and Blacks.