How simple and straightforward Brexit seemed just after the referendum. We would trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and Britain would wave goodbye to the European Union two years later. Even before Theresa May entered Downing Street she had made a solemn promise: “Brexit means Brexit and we’re going to make a success of it.”

Today, less than two months after the vote, old fears have given way to new ones. Ministers are privately telling the City that article 50 may not be invoked before the French election next May and perhaps not until after the German election in September 2017. That would push the date for Brexit back to late 2019, perilously close to our own general election, due in May 2020.

Why