Back in September, I heard an intriguing Supreme Court rumor: Justice Anthony M. Kennedy will announce his retirement from the Court next year. The rumor was based on the following:

1. Justice Kennedy is holding his next law clerk reunion in 2017, his 29th year on the Court — instead of 2018, his 30th year on the Court, and more in line with the traditional scheduling of his clerk reunions every five years from his investiture. (See the letter to the AMK law clerks posted on the next page.)

2. In another departure from tradition, Justice Kennedy did not teach abroad this past summer at McGeorge Law’s Summer Program in Salzburg, suggesting that perhaps he might be slowing down in terms of his schedule.

3. After hiring one law clerk for October Term 2017 — Nick Harper (Chicago 2015 / Kavanaugh), originally hired by the late Justice Antonin Scalia — Justice Kennedy stopped his OT 2017 clerk hiring process.

These pieces of information led some Court observers to think, not unreasonably, that Justice Kennedy might announce his retirement from the Court in June 2017, at or around the time of his law clerk reunion — which would also fall conveniently near the end of the Term, a traditional time for retirement announcements. Judges who are close to their clerks often make such announcements at their clerk reunions. (My own former boss, Judge Diarmuid O’Scannlain of the Ninth Circuit, announced his upcoming move to senior status at his law clerk reunion.)

After hearing this rumor a few weeks ago, I followed up with my sources. I determined that there wasn’t sufficient substance to merit a story, and I decided not to write about it. This is a not uncommon occurrence here at Above the Law; we hear all sorts of wild rumors that fall apart upon investigation.

Fast forward to this week. In the wake of the election of Donald Trump — a Republican president, i.e., a president that the Reagan-appointed Justice Kennedy might be willing to have name his successor — the rumor resurfaced. This time it went public, on Twitter (the “Whelan” referred to by Alan Gura is Ed Whelan, a former Scalia clerk and longtime commentator on the Court):

Whelan didn’t name names, but another former Scalia clerk, Ian Samuel, went there:

I wasn’t planning to write about this rumor — but now that it’s out there, it might as well be addressed with facts.

I reached out to the Supreme Court’s Public Information Office, providing the basis for the speculation about Justice Kennedy. Spokesperson Kathy Arberg provided the following statement:

Justice Kennedy is in the process of hiring clerks for 2017. The Justice didn’t go to Salzburg this past summer because it conflicted with some plans with his family, but he is scheduled to return to teach there in 2017. The reunion is scheduled for the end of this Term because the Justice’s law clerks wanted to hold it during the Justice’s 80th year to mark his birthday.

This statement, which presumably reflects input from Justice Kennedy, strikes me as a persuasive and well-founded rebuttal to the rumors. If AMK were planning to retire next year, the easiest thing would have been for the Court to offer a simple “no comment.”

Now, a few caveats. Is it possible that Justice Kennedy actually is planning to retire next year, but doesn’t want the world to know just yet? Sure. Is it possible that he isn’t currently planning to retire next year, but then changes his mind later? Certainly. Is it possible that he or any of his other colleagues — including Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 83, and Justice Stephen G. Breyer, 78 — might leave the Court involuntarily? Yes — although we hope not, and wish all of the justices long and happy tenures on the Court.

But based on this statement and the facts it references, it seems to me that people confidently predicting a Kennedy retirement by the end of October Term 2016 are getting a bit ahead of themselves. President-elect Donald Trump will already get one SCOTUS appointment (Justice Scalia’s successor); there’s no need to rush to give him another.

This isn’t the first time that we at Above the Law have heard — and squelched — rumors of a retirement from SCOTUS. Longtime readers might recall how we dispelled the rumors of a resignation by Chief Justice John Roberts back in 2010.

Above the Law: we investigate the rumors, so you don’t have to. If you have news or rumor that you’d like us to delve into, please feel free to email us or text us (646-820-8477). Thanks.

(Flip to the next page to see Justice Kennedy’s letter to his law clerks about next year’s reunion.)

UPDATE (6/25/2017, 6:08 p.m.): Whoa! At the end of the Term, the AMK retirement rumors came back with a vengeance (but turned out, once again, to be unfounded).

Earlier: Supreme Court Clerk Hiring Watch: A Look At October Term 2017

Anatomy of a Rumor: The Story Behind Chief Justice John Roberts’s ‘Retirement’

David Lat is the founder and managing editor of Above the Law and the author of Supreme Ambitions: A Novel. He previously worked as a federal prosecutor in Newark, New Jersey; a litigation associate at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, in New York; and a law clerk to Judge Diarmuid F. O’Scannlain of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. You can connect with David on Twitter (@DavidLat), LinkedIn, and Facebook, and you can reach him by email at dlat@abovethelaw.com.