Betting on ugly underdogs is a tough way to make a living, but sometimes line inflation dictates a play. The number is what matters most in NFL wagering.

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Miami Dolphins, who are two-touchdown ‘dogs against the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Monday night. One veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker said his number on this game is 7½, and my number is 10½. It’s not a big surprise the number is higher on an all-time terrible team.

Miami, 0-6 straight up and 2-4 against the spread after covering its past two games, is unplayable with Josh Rosen at quarterback, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has a better shot to make magic happen. Fitzpatrick passed for 282 yards and a touchdown and was not sacked in a 31-21 loss at Buffalo in Week 7. The Buffalo Bills rank No. 3 in the league in total defense and scoring defense. The Steelers rank 15th in total defense.

It should not be too much to ask of Fitzmagic to cover two touchdowns against a sub-.500 favorite led by a backup quarterback, Mason Rudolph. This is a popular play with many sharp bettors, believe it or not.

The play: Dolphins +14.