We've seen quite a bit early in this college football season, but one thing we haven't seen very much of are major upsets. Yes, Akron beat Arkansas (a team whose ranking and expectations were drastically over inflated simply because they play in the SEC West) last weekend as well as another SEC West inflated Auburn barely squeaking by a D1AA team, but typically we find ourselves with 5-10 upsets in the first couple weeks of the College Football season as teams try to find their way early on.

One of the rare upsets thus far, which has Duke's next opponent ranked @ #23 in the AP Poll after week 2, was Northwestern's bruising victory at home over a then ranked #21 Stanford team over Labor Day weekend. Having watched the majority of that game two things were apparent to me.

1.) Stanford is not nearly the team they have been the last 4 or 5 years. They are inexperienced for the first time in recent memory all over their defense and Kevin Hogan is not an NFL QB. He arguably isn't even much better than an average college football QB.

2.) Northwestern is down right tough on both sides of the ball and won't be an easy out in the Western division of the Big10 for any opponent they face.

That said, Duke is a very similar team in the ACC Coastal -- a team pre-season writers and media still didn't want to support as a contender, but one they might have no other choice than to recognize based on what happens this Saturday in Wallace Wade Stadium.

Another thing to keep in mind is how much these two teams mirror one another. They both have athletic QB's starting only their third game of their entire career. They also both deploy the shotgun spread option / zone read attack on offense meaning each defense will know the other teams offense intimately from practicing against that scheme day in and day out.

What's on the line?

A.) A Top 25 ranking - with Northwestern already sitting in the AP Poll @ #23, and Duke looking in from just outside, the winner of this game will be ranked going into week 4.

B.) Power 5 "Academic" Program Bragging Rights - The winner of this game gets the unofficial claim of being the best of the Power 5 "academic" programs with Northwestern having beat Stanford in week 1 (no offense Vandy but you just aren't in the discussion currently). A conclusion you can likely come to is that Duke competes for the same recruits these other programs do so the winner on Saturday has a leg up on the other three schools from Sunday through Signing Day in February of 2016.

C.) Perfect Non-Conference - a win here by both schools allows them to remain perfect in their out of conference schedule with only one game left to play. Again, it goes without saying that winning all your non-conference games significantly helps when you enter tougher conference play for the end of year bowl picture. Duke has Army left, and Northwestern has Ball State, so whoever wins Saturday likely ends with a 4-0 non-conference record and increases their likelihood of bowl qualification and positioning significantly.

Who has the advantage?

A.) Duke Offense / Northwestern Defense - through two games Duke is ranked #9 (593/yds) nationally in yards per game (YPG) on Offense and Northwestern is ranked #3 (189/yds) nationally in yards given up on Defense. Something has to give here. Keep in mind Duke's offense has not faced a formidable defense this young season, while one could say Northwestern's defense definitely has faced a formidable offense in Stanford That said, as far as my eyes can see, Duke has far greater overall team speed than Northwestern does. Additionally, the fact this game is played in Durham is more important than many know being that Northwestern's game surface is thick long cut grass they use to equalize team speed in the Big10. My gut tells me Northwestern and Pat Fitzgerald load the box and makes Thomas Sirk and Duke's WR/TE core beat them. I think this is very close, and that Duke's offense will be much better in the second half than the first, but the fact they've shut down a quality opponent already this young season gives the Wildcats confidence and the advantage on D. Advantage: Northwestern D

B.) Duke Defense / Northwestern Offense - through two games Duke is ranked # 7 (228.5/yds) nationally in YPG Defensively and Northwestern is ranked #70 (413/yds) in YPG on Offense. Again, keeping the Stanford element in mind, one could say this statistic is skewed being that Northwestern's offense faced a quality defense and Duke's defense has not faced a quality offense. That said, digging deeper shows a Stanford defense that had only 4 returning starters. Additionally, Northwestern's offense heavily favors the run game having only passed for a total of 257 yards in it's first two games. Duke again finds themselves in the under sized, but fleeter of feet position here as well. I think Duke takes the same approach as Northwestern on defense, which plays to our strength. Load the box and cause chaos with zone blitzes leading to many tackles for loss while making their QB and WR/TE beat us through the air while under duress. Duke's secondary might be the best in the entire ACC across the board -- even with the loss of Bryon Fields -- so I imagine we will see Northwestern's QB having to throw the ball a lot this Saturday and taking shots while doing so. Advantage: Duke D

C.) Kicking Game - MME - Martin/Monday/Edwards. That alone gives Duke the advantage over just about every team they will play this year in the kicking game. Ryan Smith has been outstanding through two games as a punt returner and I could see him having an impact on this game as well. Pretty straight forward here. Advantage: Duke

Prediction:

This will be a battle of wills. Both offenses will struggle to establish the run in the first half and and be forced to try and win the game through the air in the second. The team that makes the least amount of mistakes (turnovers and penalties) while having some success in the passing game will likely wind up the victor. I envision a late game drive that puts Duke in scoring position and a Ross Martin field goal being the deciding factor that brings a home win to the Blue Devil faithful along with a Top 25 ranking headed into a HUGE week 4 Coastal Division battle with Georgia Tech in Wallace Wade Stadium.

Duke 20 - Northwestern 17



