Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.

By all rights, the coming year should be another good one for the economy. We are in the virtuous part of the business cycle. Unemployment is at a 50-year low, which is fueling stronger wage growth. Record open job positions combined with bigger paychecks are lifting consumers' spirits and their spending. The robust sales are prompting businesses to expand, pushing unemployment even lower.

Supercharging this virtuous cycle is a massive jolt of fiscal stimulus. Deficit-financed tax cuts juiced up the economy this past year, and while the benefits of the tax cuts are fading, big deficit-financed increases in government spending are now in full swing. The economic boost from this stimulus is temporary, but it will add to growth for much of the coming year.

If the economy continues to grow through June 2019, the current economic expansion will turn 10 years old, marking the longest economic expansion in the nation's history. It is hard to envisage what could stop us from celebrating this happy birthday.

Ah yes, there is President Trump. Given his wrong-headed economic policies and the political chaos swirling around him, the possibility of a recession can't be dismissed. If not by this summer, odds are uncomfortably high that one will hit by the next presidential inaugural.

The president's trade war is the most immediate economic hurdle. Trump appears to be searching for a face-saving way out of the conflict with China as the damage to the stock market and economy mounts. The arrangement he struck with Europe last summer and the recent new NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico are likely prototypes. That is, the deal will be much ado about nothing, since it will have no meaningful economic consequence.

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