I think we can all feel for Chad “Money” Mendes.

Mendes has a skillset that, in any other division (besides lightweight), would have him holding wearing a belt. He’s so dominant of a power wrestler that I cannot remember the last fight that he spent significant time on his back. He has staggering power in his hands; blowing away tough fighters like Darren Elkins, Clay Guida and Ricardo Lamas is no small feat. He is the first fighter to give Jose Aldo trouble on the feet, and that’s coming out of a wrestling base.

Yet after 3 straight title match losses (one in which he pushed the champion to the limit, the other with only two weeks preparation), his chances are few and far between. And facing him is arguably the best featherweight to never hold a belt AND the only man to take the lightweight belt from BJ Penn, Frankie “The Answer” Edgar.

This is either the fight that proves Chad Mendes has a new gear and can challenge either champion, or the fight that becomes Dana White’s nightmare: Frankie Edgar having an undisputed title shot against his cash cows.

But Mendes may have a few edges in this matchup.

True Knockout Power

Nothing gets a new audience hyped like knowing they’re watching someone who has “knockout power”; in the deepest recesses of our mind we want to see people get busted. But because any fighter can be knocked out by a punch (by luck or design), too many people are said to possess “knockout power”. The men and women who have earned the title are fighters whose natural power is so staggering that they don’t even need to connect cleanly to permanently change a fight.

Chad Mendes is one of those people.

With two losses in three fights (albeit to Aldo and McGregor), many casual fans forget that Mendes was on an absolute tear. He was riding a five fight winning streak that saw him blow away four straight opponents (3 in the first round) before an admittedly off-kilter performance against Nik Lentz.

Ricardo Lamas is extremely tough, having taken solid shots from some of the harder hitting featherweight strikers. Then Mendes caught him with this, and the fight was all but over.

That’s not even a clean shot; it was to the top of the skull which, if you don’t know, is extremely hard and dangerous to punch. Yet Lamas went through a tearful break up with his equilibrium and was knocked out soon after. Yes, Jeremy Stephens hits harder but it comes from the way he puts his weight behind his shots (and the reason he’s somewhat easy to unbalance). Yes McGregor and Aldo are better strikers overall, but their knockouts are a result of accumulated damage or timing than sheer concussive force.

Mendes is the real deal; effortless power from anywhere.

Frankie Edgar is extremely hard to catch but he can be caught. Hell, Cub Swanson occasionally tagged Frankie’s chin with his looping punches even though they were tailor made to miss the slippery wrestler.

Other than the UFC champions who beat him with wrestling defense, Frankie’s biggest challenges have come against fighters who have cracked him hard and early, forcing him to work from a deficit like Gray Maynard and Benson Henderson. Because Mendes already has a great set of hips and can hurt people with very little wind up, it’s conceivable that he is probably Edgar’s worst striking match up because he may not fear the single leg takedown enough to keep from wailing on him.

The Uppercut

Don’t laugh!

Anyone who has watched MMA long enough will tell you that uppercuts and knees are the bane of wrestlers. The fact that a takedown involves shifting momentum forward and down (the exact opposite of the opponent’s strike) means that eating an uppercut is far more damaging. The power amplification is so dramatic that Chuck Liddell and Jose Aldo have set up knockouts (Ortiz and Gamburyan respectively) with a glancing hit.

Just like everything else about Mendes, his uppercut is very compact. Look at how fast this uppercut caught Aldo.

Even with a knee bend, a follow through, and Aldo barely ducking it seemed like he never had a chance to dodge it. Against Frankie, whose level change brings him even lower, the distance to hit him is ever shorter. While it was the long hook that gave Frankie significant trouble against Gray Maynard, it was the uppercut that was responsible for shattering his nose and I’d be surprised if Mendes wasn’t capable of the same.

Short? Nope, Just Compact

It’s almost never better to be the shorter, smaller fighter. I know that sounds rather childish and shallow, but it’s true. With freaks of nature whose reach doesn’t penalize their athleticism (McGregor, Cerrone, Jones etc) it’s becoming harder and harder for the small man to make their stand.

Against a grappler though, being compact is a huge advantage.

As I pointed out in the post-fight of McGregor vs Mendes, taller fighters have a harder time slamming their hips to the floor to sprawl against a shot. Mendes is at best “compact” and at worst “sort of stumpy” with a naturally low stance meaning Edgar’s nose would have to scrape the canvas for him to get low enough to shoot.

Frankie Edgar’s hands are a bigger threat a featherweight than lightweight but fighters with a reasonably sturdy chin can shrug them off with little trouble. Mendes, underprepared as he was, was able to shrug off most of McGregor’s best shots before exhausting himself and getting nailed. If he can survive the Irishman’s snipers, Frankie will be able to do very little on his feet to keep Mendes away.

And if he gets in close, his short reach will be a huge advantage. I’ll explain this more in an “MMA 101” segment, but there’s an “optimal range” for punches to land.

The punch has to land “long enough” so that it can build up speed and have the proper skeletal support behind it to absorb the shock. But it also must be “short enough” that it doesn’t overextend the limb and remove any major muscle groups from the impact or throws the fighter off balance. The optimal range of a punch gets farther away the longer a fighter’s reach and height.

So when a shorter fighter gets inside that range, they can inflict serious damage.

Marciano, stepping in and overcoming a 7″ reach disadvantage with the speed of his punch for the KO

Their punches reach their targets faster already and the retaliation damage mitigated. There’s a reason that Semmy Schilt, the most accomplished heavyweight boxer ever, looked like a child when an opponent closed distance. Peter Aerts gave Schilt fits even when he was 40 because he could simply wade past Schilt’s best and punish him inside.

If forced into Mendes’s range, Frankie will have a hell of a time keeping up with his firepower.

Now all this isn’t to suggest that Frankie isn’t the favorite; he most certainly is.

With Georges St. Pierre out, Frankie stands head and shoulders as the cardio standard for MMA. The pace he sets tires me just by watching, and Mendes could not match him for 5 rounds. Plus, as he demonstrated against Urijah Faber, Frankie is perfectly capable of becoming an MMA/Out-boxer for a decision win.

But apart from Jose Aldo (king of anti-wrestling) there’s never been an opponent like Mendes who naturally neutralizes some of Frankie’s strengths. So let’s sit back, throw a comforting arm over the shoulders of a nervous Dana White, and see if Money has the answer.