I’ll start by saying that first place is now Louisville’s to lose. With a game in hand on most of the league, and most of their remaining games against mid- to lower- table teams, they’re in the driver’s seat.

But as we’ve seen all year, you can’t assume anything in the USL.

The Jacks’ remaining six games are as follows: three home and three away, with their final five against some of the best teams in the East, a good warmup for the playoffs.

Doing the Math

Sitting on 47 points with 26 games played, the Jacks have averaged 1.81 points per game. If they simply perform as they’ve performed all year, they can expect about 11 points out of the remaining 6 games (if you round up). I’m not a math guy, so I’m not going to break down every team’s chances based on points per game, but I can take a look at things with more of an eye test to determine how the top four will shake out.

Is 11 points doable for the Independence? I think so, but they will need to take care of business at home against Ottawa, Cincinnati and the Battery and nab a couple of draws on the road at Charleston, Tampa Bay, and Louisville. This would leave the Jacks on 58 points for the season, most likely good for second or third place at worst.

Best Case Scenario

Obviously, the literal best case scenario is six wins and 18 points, but we would all be shocked if they manage to pull that off. Let’s set the best case scenario at 15 points, which can be earned with five wins and a loss. If the Jacks can pull this off, I would expect first place to be within reach with 62 points, especially if one of those five wins is in Louisville’s dreaded home baseball park.

Worst Case Scenario

The Independence only get six points; let’s say one win, two losses and three draws. Obviously this isn’t the literal worst case scenario, but it gives you an idea of what could happen if things really go poorly for the Independence down the stretch. They’re not losing all six games, but this scenario would put the Jacks at 53 points and would likely still put them in 4th… but depending on what the other teams do, it could see them fall to fifth or sixth.

My Prediction

I think the Jacks will do just a hair better than their ppg and go unbeaten for the remainder of the season with three wins and three draws, putting them at 59 points and in second place behind Louisville.

I would love to be wrong and see them take first place, because the Jacks have looked nearly unbeatable at the Plex this season.

Buckle up y’all: the next few weeks are going to be a blast to watch, starting with Saturday night against Ottawa Fury! Stay tuned here for all your Charlotte Independence news and make sure you subscribe to Talkin’ Jacks for new episodes every Tuesday! Our latest was great for a rainy day (or a sunny one).

Come on you Jacks!