Stephen Elop

Stephen Elop is one of the more unusual CEO candidates that Microsoft is considering. Born in Canada and celebrating his 50th birthday at the end of the month, Elop will return to Microsoft early next year even if he’s not named CEO. The former Nokia CEO left Microsoft in late 2010 to run the Finnish smartphone maker, and his return will see him run an expanded devices team unless he’s made Microsoft CEO.

Elop oversaw Nokia’s turbulent transition from Symbian to Windows Phone, kicking things off with an honest and surprising "burning platform" internal memo. In it, Elop compared Nokia to an oil platform that was on fire, noting that Apple changed the game with the iPhone and Google’s "gravitational force" with Android had managed to attack Nokia’s low-end phone dominance. It came just days before Elop helped form a partnership with Microsoft, his former employer, to create smartphones running Windows Phone. Since then, Nokia has transitioned fully to Windows Phone, and is the single dominant seller of phones running Microsoft’s software.

Elop’s previous experience at Microsoft, where he was the head of the business division, and his work running Nokia make him an obvious CEO candidate, but he also has years of experience elsewhere. For six years he helped run Boston Chicken (now Boston Market) as its CIO, before the firm filed for bankruptcy in 1998. He then joined Macromedia as web businesses started to boom, spending seven years in various senior positions. He was named Macromedia CEO just a few months before Adobe acquired the company in April 2005. Elop eventually resigned from Adobe after just over a year and joined Juniper Networks as COO for a year before moving to Microsoft. While he spent less than two years at Microsoft, Elop was responsible for Microsoft Office and oversaw the release of Office 2010.

A mix of experience and skills is essential for a modern Microsoft CEO, but understanding the company’s culture and new focus on mobile and devices is equally important if the firm is serious about transitioning from its PC roots. Elop’s experience at Nokia was mixed. While Nokia’s profits dropped 95 percent during his time as CEO, the Finnish firm was already struggling to adapt and Elop managed to trim and even turn a modest profit just ahead of Microsoft’s acquisition. However, Elop has an unfortunate history of leaving companies just as they’re struggling, a position Microsoft finds itself in for key consumer and mobile markets. Recent reports have suggested Elop may consider a strategy shift at Microsoft if he were made CEO, including rumored plans to sell its Xbox business and kill off the Bing search engine. The plans seem unlikely given Microsoft’s new collaborative focus, but any potential CEO will want to change and shape the company their own way.

Wrap-up

The rumors around Microsoft’s CEO choice have consistently focused on these four men, but a delay into 2014 may leave the decision wide open. Nadella has revealed he’ll stay at Microsoft regardless, and Mulally’s representatives have been issuing non-denial denials. Elop and Bates have both remained silent during the search, leaving their fate largely unknown. The four main contenders may no longer fit the requirements of the board, leading to the possibility of a "dark horse" candidate taking the role by surprise. Microsoft could even opt for a dual-CEO strategy, with enterprise- and consumer-focused leaders. It’s not clear exactly what Microsoft will do, and the board will likely be busy working over the holiday period to find the ideal solution.

A delay until 2014 leaves the possibility of a dark horse winning the race

Microsoft’s choice of CEO will speak volumes for the direction of the company. The complex Nokia deal requires a leader to balance the company’s push for hardware with its continued focus on consumer and enterprise software and services. If a future CEO isn’t able to make the Nokia deal work, it will spell major trouble for Microsoft’s hardware ambitions — and no one in Redmond wants another Zune or KIN. An indecisive process or the appointment of an interim CEO will also reveal Microsoft isn’t ready to fully decide or commit to a particular strategy, despite its devices and services plan; there's a lot of uncertainty over Microsoft’s future direction, and Ballmer has already put together a plan for his successor that they may be forced to follow with the pressure of co-founder Bill Gates as chairman. Microsoft’s next CEO will carry the weight of over 100,000 employees on their shoulders, all in the middle of a massive transition to "One Microsoft." That’s no easy job.

Jacob Kastrenakes contributed to this report.