The GLL Grand Slam

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Short post today. I collected a ton of data from the GLL Grand Slam and nothing I tried to do with it worked out, so I’m falling back on the same old, which is still interesting. (I hope!)

Here’s how each team performed in Stockholm based on the number of circles they were in.

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GLL “LUCK” PLOT

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Figure 1: Total points per match for each GLL team based on circle favor. Teams that are above the black line performed better than expected, and teams below the line, worse. The gray lines represent one half standard deviation from the mean in points per match. The dotted trace represents the change in performance from Day 1 to Day 2 to Day 3.

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FaZe and Athletico outperformed their circle favor by the highest margin of all teams. NaVi was right up there with them, and had the third- or fourth-worst circle luck throughout the tournament.

Liquid, with wildly high circle favor, was on par with other top teams – as usual, this analysis ignores circles 1 and 2, as being in or out of them doesn’t contribute significantly to the end results, so this circle favor didn’t just come from where they loot.

SSG and Rumblers fell off considerably as the tournament went on, while Singularity, Incognito, and Pittsburgh Knights recovered over time.

C9 also put in a strong comeback effort but couldn’t quite get to their usual performance. I’m not convinced that they fell off their game just because they didn’t have those central loot locations. The level of circle favor they had at this tournament was actually higher than what they had overall in the NPL. Maybe it had to do with being forced to use less-practiced rotations?

North American teams overall did a bit worse than at the previous classic – I’m curious if this might be because of the long gap in competition following the end of the NPL. I might take a look later on at average tournament rank compared to time since last competitive match, maybe at the end of Phase 3, when there’s more data on this with the new ruleset.

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As always, my .Rmd file is here, for those of you who are interested.

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tl;dr Circle luck at the GLL Grand Slam. FaZe, Athletico, and NaVi outperformed their circle favor by the highest margin.