Are Quebecers finally getting tired of parking their votes with Gilles Duceppe’s go-nowhere Bloc Québécois? Has the Bloc’s 20-year-old regional appeal finally begun to wear thin, along with its clout as a spoiler on the federal scene? Does Quebec want back in?

Few federalists are breaking out the champagne yet. But New Democrat Leader Jack Layton’s surge in the latter days of this election campaign has people wondering. The NDP advance in Quebec may be nothing more than a passing brush fire, soon to burn out, as La Presse chief editorial writer André Pratte cautions. Then again, it may point to something bigger.

For the first time the NDP, a federalist party, has clawed its way into the lead in Quebec, according to a CROP poll for La Presse. The New Democrats have the support of 36 per cent of Quebecers, compared to 31 per cent for the Bloc, with the Conservatives and Liberals at 17 and 13 per cent respectively. Tellingly, 62 per cent of francophones now support federalist parties.

“Quebecers . . . are unhappy with what they see in Ottawa,” Layton told the Star’s editorial board on Thursday. “Maybe it’s time to try something new.”

Of course, Duceppe isn’t about to hoist the white flag. He went into the campaign with 47 of Quebec’s 75 seats to Layton’s one. He wants to believe that the NDP surge is a passing blip, nothing more.

Even so, some of the Bloc’s “soft” nationalists may be tired of being marginalized on the federal scene, and may be rethinking their options. CROP found that while 38 per cent of francophones still support the Bloc, 34 per cent now back the NDP and 28 per cent back other federal parties. That has separatists on the defensive.

Duceppe has taken to reminding anyone who will listen that the NDP supported bringing home the Constitution from Britain over Quebec’s objections, and endorsed the federal Clarity Act that set a high bar against secession. Duceppe also felt the need to assure his troops that he wasn’t “losing control” of the race.

Layton deserves this modest triumph, whether or not it translates into more Quebec seats for his party. Shrugging off cancer and a bum hip, the “little guy from Hudson” (near Montreal) performed well in the TV debates. He charmed Quebecers with his everyday working Anglo’s French. He has been the Happy Warrior of this election, promising higher corporate taxes, more spending on jobs, health and social programs, and a speedy exit from Afghanistan.

Of course, Layton also couldn’t resist courting nationalists by musing about creating “winning conditions” for Quebec to sign the Constitution. That’s how separatists talk about secession. And he raised the prospect of yet another constitutional debate. None of this will go down well elsewhere in the country.

Still, Layton has shaken the Bloc’s confidence, for the first time in a long time. That’s no mean feat.

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