Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Beginning again

Urban Meyer seemed a bit edgy this spring, challenging his team to remain focused in the honeymoon period. He has to break in a new offensive coordinator, figure out what to do about his quarterback situation, find a new big-play receiver and tight end, and attempt to shore up a run defense that wasn't elite. And, perhaps most importantly, he has to figure out how to keep a team of 20-year-olds from getting too full of itself after it played some of the best football in recent memory. These are first-world problems. They are problems you would ask to have. But they could be problems nonetheless. The team that few thought should have been in the Playoff is now the team everybody expects to defend its title. Can it? -- 2015 Ohio State preview

For a while, it looked like Meyer might actually pull it off. After an almost perfect path to the 2014 national title -- an early loss takes the microscope off of you, and you catch fire with as little pressure as possible -- the 2015 title defense was stressful from the start.

Meyer and his assistants couldn't decide on a starting quarterback, then waffled. The Buckeyes stumbled through closer-than-they-should-have-been scraps with NIU and Indiana. They finally hit fourth or fifth gear in late October, beating Penn State and Rutgers by a combined 87-17.

Then, with the finish line in sight, they bumbled into a home loss to Michigan State. It like so many other upset losses -- a "this doesn't feel right" tone at the start, an underdog that doesn't think it's an underdog, and an offense struggling in inclement weather. Just as Meyer had done to Mark Dantonio the year before, MSU's staff coached circles around OSU's, came away with a 17-14 win, and stole the Big Ten title and a CFP bid from under the Buckeyes' noses.

It was a stunning turn of events for a team that seemed to have shaken off its 2014 turnover.

Ohio State rebounded well, destroying Michigan in Ann Arbor and outpacing Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.

The short version (Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports)



2016 projected wins: 8.1



Projected S&P+ ranking: 14 (2 in Big Ten)



5-year recruiting ranking: 4 (1 in Big Ten)



Biggest strength: New defensive coordinator Greg Schiano should have a lot of fun with the attacking talent in the front seven.



Biggest question mark: The skill positions are almost completely starting over. How long will it take to develop a rapport with QB J.T. Barrett?



Biggest 2016 game: Michigan (Nov. 26). The Wolverines have big plans, and Ohio State could destroy them.



Summary: Ohio State returns less production than almost anybody, and while Meyer's Buckeyes don't lack for talent, inexperience should lead to a backwards step. But they will still remain an obvious factor in the Big Ten East. 8.1: 14 (2 in Big Ten): 4 (1 in Big Ten): New defensive coordinator Greg Schiano should have a lot of fun with the attacking talent in the front seven.: The skill positions are almost completely starting over. How long will it take to develop a rapport with QB J.T. Barrett?: Michigan (Nov. 26). The Wolverines have big plans, and Ohio State could destroy them.Ohio State returns less production than almost anybody, and while Meyer's Buckeyes don't lack for talent, inexperience should lead to a backwards step. But they will still remain an obvious factor in the Big Ten East.

2015 is the past. Quarterback Cardale Jones is gone. So is running back Zeke Elliott. And H-back Braxton Miller. And receivers Michael Thomas and Jalin Marshall. All-American left tackle Taylor Decker and two other offensive line starters. Defensive end Joey Bosa. Tackle Adolphus Washington. Linebackers Joshua Perry and Darron Lee. Corner Eli Apple. Safeties Tyvis Powell and Vonn Bell. Defensive coordinator Chris Ash.

The personalities that defined a team that went 26-2 in 2014-15 have now been mostly filtered out. It's what happens in college football. You hug your stars as they walk out, and you get prepared to root for new ones.

Ohio State still has plenty of star power. But the personality will change even if there's only a little bit of a change in quality. And if the Buckeyes do slip in 2016 (and that's far from a guarantee), it's pretty clear that they will bounce back quickly. That's what happens when you've got a program this sturdy, led by one of the most adept hands in college football.

Meyer burned out at Florida, and maybe he will in Columbus, too. But until that happens, Ohio State will continue to win. Meyer is the second most proven coach in college football. In 14 seasons as a head coach, he has lost just 27 games. He's lost four in four years at OSU. As the Big Ten tries to get its act together overall, the Buckeyes remain the gold standard, the program to beat on a year-to-year basis.

It's just that, in 2016, a couple of teams might actually do it.

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the Big Ten so far!

Record: 12-1 | Adj. Record: 13-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 3 | Final S&P+ Rk: 3 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Win

Expectancy vs. S&P+ Performance

vs. Vegas 7-Sep at Virginia Tech 59 42-24 W 93% 100% +7.5 +4.0 12-Sep Hawaii 120 38-0 W 94% 100% -9.0 -2.0 19-Sep Northern Illinois 66 20-13 W 78% 89% -24.7 -28.0 26-Sep Western Michigan 51 38-12 W 92% 99% -14.6 -5.5 3-Oct at Indiana 61 34-27 W 84% 96% -12.2 -14.0 10-Oct Maryland 76 49-28 W 83% 99% +3.1 -12.0 17-Oct Penn State 47 38-10 W 94% 100% +23.4 +11.0 24-Oct at Rutgers 101 49-7 W 96% 100% +19.7 +21.0 7-Nov Minnesota 55 28-14 W 83% 95% -6.0 -9.0 14-Nov at Illinois 65 28-3 W 97% 100% +15.6 +9.0 21-Nov Michigan State 9 14-17 L 54% 36% -17.3 -16.0 28-Nov at Michigan 8 42-13 W 98% 100% +33.4 +29.0 1-Jan vs. Notre Dame 7 44-28 W 92% 98% +11.6 +9.0

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 39.9 14 16.0 7 Points Per Game 35.7 28 15.1 2

2. History repeats

One of the most unique aspects of college football is its history. Almost anything that happens has happened before. Just because of the number of years and the number of teams, this sport has a history richer than any other in the United States.

I've entered the home stretch on my latest book, and one of the chapters is on the 1998 Ohio State team, one of the most effortlessly good teams I can remember. The Buckeyes won 11 games, and not a single victory was by fewer than 10 points. They absorbed strong blows from Missouri, Penn State, and Michigan, then eased ahead comfortably.

This was John Cooper's time to break through after years of coming close. But in the middle of all of this domination, on November 7, the Buckeyes blinked. They took a healthy lead on Nick Saban's Michigan State, then fell asleep and lost, 28-24. The second half is one of the most "Holy crap!" halves of football I can remember watching live.

The 2015 Michigan State team was much better than the 1998 team, and unlike Cooper, Meyer's already broken through. Still, a mostly dominant Ohio State lost its title shot at home because of a salty, green underdog.

This was the only game all year in which OSU performed at a level lower than the 78th percentile. Like Florida State the year before, the Buckeyes seemed to go through the motions. But they seemed to have found their cruising altitude.

Blips, man. The blips will get you.

Offense

Q1 Rk 39 1st Down Rk 15 Q2 Rk 19 2nd Down Rk 17 Q3 Rk 6 3rd Down Rk 34 Q4 Rk 14



Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Cardale Jones 110 176 1460 8 5 62.5% 13 6.9% 7.4 J.T. Barrett 6'2, 222 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9348 93 147 992 11 4 63.3% 6 3.9% 6.3 Stephen Collier 6'4, 225 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8588 Joe Burrow 6'3, 218 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8970 Dwayne Haskins 6'3, 220 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9550

3. One QB this time

The tired "if you've got two quarterbacks, you've got zero quarterbacks" adage seemed to hold true. The Jones vs. Barrett battle was one of the stories of the offseason, and Meyer went to his most paranoid place, not revealing the starter until the opening series of the Virginia Tech game. (It was Jones.) It made for gripping television. It also made for an awkward situation when Jones struggled and, at times, got replaced by Barrett.

Ohio State's offense was fine for the most part, but the job is now Barrett's. The certainty can't be a bad thing.

Barrett's passer rating sank from 169.8 to 139.2 last year, and while his interception rate also sank, it came at the cost of efficiency. The receiving corps no longer had Devin Smith to pop open the defense with deep balls, and while Michael Thomas was particularly excellent, the passing game lacked consistency. The run game was still incredible, but the offense was less balanced than it was late in 2014, when it was awesome at everything.

That Barrett is back is a good thing, but last year's consistency problems could persist, because of the guys Barrett will be throwing to. Ohio State is projected 14th in S&P+ this year because a) continuity in the receiving corps is vital in terms of year-to-year success and b) Ohio State has none. Curtis Samuel is the only returnee among last year's top six targets. The fourth-leading returning target, Parris Campbell, had three targets and zero catches.

Wherever Barrett looks, he will find plenty of former star recruits running routes. But it might take a little while to get on the same page with them.

That might mean a lot of running early on. And while Barrett is tremendous in that regard, he's going to have newbies back there with him, too.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Ezekiel Elliott RB 289 1821 23 6.3 6.0 45.0% 2 2 J.T. Barrett QB 6'2, 222 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9348 109 714 11 6.6 4.8 53.2% 4 2 Cardale Jones QB 51 262 2 5.1 6.9 41.2% 6 1 Braxton Miller HB 42 260 1 6.2 6.6 47.6% 3 0 Curtis Samuel HB 5'11, 197 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9695 17 132 1 7.8 6.3 52.9% 1 1 Bri'onte Dunn RB 14 91 1 6.5 3.0 64.3% 1 1 Warren Ball RB 10 28 0 2.8 1.2 40.0% 0 0 Mike Weber RB 5'10, 212 RSFr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9603 Antonio Williams RB 5'11, 210 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9261 Demario McCall RB 5'9, 182 Fr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9761

















Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate Yds/

Target %SD Success

Rate IsoPPP Michael Thomas WR 84 56 781 66.7% 27.5% 9.3 67.9% 59.5% 1.56 Jalin Marshall WR 61 36 477 59.0% 19.9% 7.8 65.6% 45.9% 1.44 Braxton Miller HB 38 26 341 68.4% 12.4% 9.0 71.1% 50.0% 1.72 Curtis Samuel HB 5'11, 197 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9695 35 22 289 62.9% 11.4% 8.3 71.4% 51.4% 1.57 Ezekiel Elliott RB 29 27 206 93.1% 9.5% 7.1 48.3% 55.2% 1.19 Nick Vannett TE 26 19 162 73.1% 8.5% 6.2 57.7% 53.8% 1.07 Dontre Wilson HB 5'10, 195 Sr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9685 12 7 63 58.3% 3.9% 5.3 58.3% 33.3% 1.36 Corey Smith WR 6'1, 190 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9031 10 5 62 50.0% 3.3% 6.2 70.0% 40.0% 1.41 Parris Campbell WR 6'1, 208 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9359 3 0 0 0.0% 1.0% 0.0 33.3% 0.0% 0.00 Marcus Baugh TE 6'5, 258 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9597 2 2 32 100.0% 0.7% 16.0 50.0% 50.0% 3.20 Johnnie Dixon WR 5'11, 198 So. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9639 1 1 29 100.0% 0.3% 29.0 0.0% 100.0% 2.29 James Clark WR 5'10, 186 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.9105 1 0 0 0.0% 0.3% 0.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 Noah Brown WR 6'2, 218 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9187 Terry McLaurin WR 6'0, 204 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9051 Torrance Gibson WR 6'4, 215 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9610 K.J. Hill WR 6'0, 200 RSFr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9304 Alex Stump WR 6'3, 210 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8973 A.J. Alexander TE 6'2, 254 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8691 Austin Mack WR 6'2, 215 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9614 Binjimen Victor WR 6'4, 185 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9500 Jake Hausmann TE 6'5, 245 Fr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9414 Luke Farrell TE 6'6, 245 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9206 Kierre Hawkins TE 6'3, 245 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8919

4. So, so, so, so, so much turnover

So who is going to be taking handoffs and catching passes?

Mike Weber is an interesting guy to watch. The redshirt freshman could start from day one, and he certainly brings a lot of hype. In terms of recent Ohio State backs, he's built most like Carlos Hyde. As Hyde rushed for 3,200 career yards, I assume Buckeye fans would be okay with a Hyde-like career. Of course, Hyde had to wait his turn, rushing for only 141 yards as a freshman. Weber will be asked to do a lot more.

Curtis Samuel and Dontre Wilson have combined for 83 receptions thus far. They will fill Miller's H-back role. Samuel is a solid possession guy with some burst, and Wilson has always been bouncy and hard to tackle.

With them and tight end Marcus Baugh, Barrett might have solid efficiency options. But what kind of deep threats will he have? That's a complete unknown. The most likely candidates -- four-star sophomores Noah Brown, Campbell, Johnnie Dixon, and Terry McLaurin, incoming freshman Austin Mack, redshirt freshman Torrance Gibson -- have combined for one career catch.

Lord knows athleticism isn't an issue, but you never know how someone will produce until they're asked to produce. Meyer has a track record, and one assumes stars will emerge. But it might take a while.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. 2015 Starts Career Starts Honors/Notes Taylor Decker LT 13 42 2015 All-American, 2015 1st All-Big Ten Pat Elflein C 6'3, 300 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8420 13 29 2015 1st All-Big Ten Billy Price RG 6'4, 315 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9157 13 28 Jacoby Boren C 13 28 Chase Farris RT 13 13 Jamarco Jones LT 6'5, 310 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9696 0 0 Demetrius Knox LG 6'4, 308 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9518 0 0 Brady Taylor C 6'5, 300 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8618 0 0 Evan Lisle RG 6'6, 308 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9646 0 0 Isaiah Prince RT 6'7, 310 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9496 0 0 Kyle Trout LT 6'6, 310 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9010 0 0 Matthew Burrell LG 6'4, 305 RSFr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9493



Kevin Feder OL 6'8, 305 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8700



Branden Bowen RT 6'7, 315 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8666



Michael Jordan LG 6'7, 310 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9387



Malcolm Pridgeon OL 6'7, 315 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9329



Tyler Gerald OL 6'5, 310 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9275





5. Not too much concern up front ... I think

The line has decent experience, but only compared to the skill unit. OSU returns all-conference center Pat Elflein and two-year starting guard Billy Price, so there's stability on the interior. And junior Jamarco Jones has patiently waited for his turn in the lineup.

But the other two starting spots will likely go to untested players like sophomores Demetrius Knox and Isaiah Prince, redshirt freshman Matt Burrell, freshman Michael Jordan, etc. This is another instance in which recruiting rankings suggest everything is fine, but we just don't know for sure until we see it.

SIGN UP FOR OUR COLLEGE FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER Get all kinds of college football stories, rumors, game coverage, and Jim Harbaugh oddity in your inbox every day. Email:

Defense

Q1 Rk 12 1st Down Rk 6 Q2 Rk 8 2nd Down Rk 25 Q3 Rk 7 3rd Down Rk 4 Q4 Rk 14

6. Hello again, Greg Schiano

When coordinator Chris Ash left to take the Rutgers head coaching job, Meyer replaced him with ... a former Rutgers head coach. Schiano takes the reins after spending two years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and disappearing for a couple of seasons.

Schiano has quite a CFB pedigree, even if you have to wipe the dust off. He spent five years as Penn State defensive backs coach, and after a stint with the Chicago Bears, he spent two years as Miami's coordinator and 11 as Rutgers' head man. He's somehow only 50 years old.

Schiano's 2011 Rutgers defense was one of his best. The Scarlet Knights ranked 11th in Def. S&P+, specializing in havoc plays (21.2 percent havoc rate) and efficiency. They allowed only a 52 percent completion rate, content with giving up the occasional big play (58 passes of 20-plus yards, 73rd in FBS) in the name of forcing three-and-outs.

You never know how a college coach will perform after time away, but assuming Schiano's track record still applies, expect a fun, aggressive defense. We'll just have to see how well they toe the line between making big plays and accidentally allowing them.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Joey Bosa DE 12 43.0 6.2% 16.0 5.0 1 4 1 0 Tyquan Lewis DE 6'4, 266 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8978 13 42.5 6.1% 14.0 8.0 0 1 0 0 Adolphus Washington DT 12 36.0 5.2% 7.0 4.0 1 1 1 0 Sam Hubbard DE 6'5, 266 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9230 13 22.0 3.2% 8.0 6.5 1 1 1 0 Tommy Schutt DT 10 16.0 2.3% 5.0 2.5 0 0 1 0 Jalyn Holmes DE 6'5, 274 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9622 13 8.0 1.2% 1.5 1.0 0 0 1 0 Michael Hill DT 6'3, 305 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9240 13 8.0 1.2% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Joel Hale DT 8 7.0 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Tracy Sprinkle DT 6'3, 293 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8594 12 2.5 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Darius Slade DE 6'4, 258 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8457 Jashon Cornell DT 6'3, 280 RSFr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9557 Dre'Mont Jones DT 6'3, 280 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9383 Rashod Berry DE 6'4, 252 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8568 Davon Hamilton DT 6'4, 297 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8291 Nick Bosa DE 6'4, 265 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9965 Jonathan Cooper DE 6'3, 248 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9801 Malik Barrow DT 6'2, 288 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8990



















Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Raekwon McMillan MLB 6'2, 243 Jr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9894 13 88.0 12.7% 4.0 1.5 0 4 0 0 Joshua Perry WLB 13 79.0 11.4% 7.5 3.5 0 4 0 0 Darron Lee SLB 13 51.0 7.4% 11.0 4.5 1 2 2 0 Dante Booker WLB 6'3, 236 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9721 13 18.0 2.6% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Chris Worley SLB 6'2, 228 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8675 12 15.0 2.2% 1.5 1.0 0 0 1 0 Cam Williams MLB 12 10.0 1.4% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Craig Fada SLB 6'1, 225 Sr. NR NR 12 3.5 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Jerome Baker SLB 6'1, 225 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9686 7 3.0 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Joe Burger MLB 6'2, 230 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) NR Justin Hilliard WLB 6'1, 230 RSFr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9848 Nick Conner MLB 6'3, 232 RSFr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9116 Tuf Borland WLB 6'1, 228 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8933 Keandre Jones LB 6'2, 218 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9539



















7. Play-makers needed ... and plenty of candidates

Sometimes we get distracted by who a team loses, and we don't notice what it returns. Bosa, Washington, Lee, Perry, etc., are all gone from the front seven, but the line in particular seems to have some potential stars.

Tyquan Lewis benefited from offenses' preoccupation with Bosa last year and finished with 14 TFLs and eight sacks; sophomore Sam Hubbard managed eight and 6.5 from a backup role. In limited opportunities, both end Jalyn Holmes and tackle Michael Hill got in on some negative plays.

At linebacker, tackling machine Raekwon McMillan returns, and juniors Dante Booker and Chris Worley finally get a shot after two years each as backups. There is a new layer of recent star recruits -- Justin Hilliard, Nick Conner, Keandre Jones, Tuf Borland -- looking to carve a niche.

The offensive skill positions actually worry me a bit, but I feel comfortable with what OSU has to offer in the defensive front seven despite a similar level of turnover. It appears Schiano will have the tools he needs to attack up front. Depth could be an obvious issue, however.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Tyvis Powell S 13 56.0 8.1% 0.5 0 3 3 0 0 Vonn Bell S 13 54.0 7.8% 1 0 2 9 0 1 Gareon Conley CB 6'0, 195 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9322 13 41.0 5.9% 1 0.5 2 5 0 0 Eli Apple CB 13 28.0 4.0% 2 0 1 8 0 1 Malik Hooker S 6'2, 205 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8858 13 8.0 1.2% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Damon Webb S 5'10, 195 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9820 7 6.5 0.9% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Denzel Ward CB 5'10, 185 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.9032 11 6.0 0.9% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Erick Smith S 6'0, 203 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9665 6 5.5 0.8% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Marshon Lattimore CB 6'0, 192 So. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9729 7 4.5 0.7% 0 0 0 3 0 0 Cam Burrows S 6'0, 205 Sr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9719 3 3.0 0.4% 0 0 0 1 0 0 Jarrod Barnes S 6'0, 200 Sr. NR NR Eric Glover-Williams S 5'9, 178 So. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9523 Joshua Norwood CB 5'10, 185 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8697 Damon Arnette CB 6'0, 195 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8597 Jordan Fuller CB 6'2, 205 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9377 Wayne Davis DB 5'10, 190 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8912



















8. The downside of a tiny rotation

Ash didn't employ a large rotation in the secondary last year, and that could come back to bite OSU in 2016. Only four players made more than eight tackles, and three are gone. The one returnee, corner Gareon Conley, is a keeper, but he's going to need some help.

There is at least a little experience at safety. Malik Hooker and Damon Webb were the primary backups last year, and Cam Burrows was solid as a nickel back in 2014 before missing most of last year with injury.

Cornerback seems pretty dicey. Conley is solid, but the other starting position will probably go to either of two sophomores: Marshon Lattimore or Denzel Ward. They have combined for 10.5 career tackles, but Lattimore showed some promise in breaking up three passes in limited opportunity last year.

If Lattimore fulfills that promise immediately, then all is well. If he doesn't, there could be quite a bit of shuffling between Lattimore, Ward, and younger options like redshirt freshmen Joshua Norwood and Damon Arnette and big true freshman Jordan Fuller.

Schiano will need some youngsters to quickly prove themselves.Otherwise he won't be able to take risks up front.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2016

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Cameron Johnston 5'11, 198 Sr. 58 43.9 7 21 22 74.1%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Jack Willoughby 85 60.7 27 7 31.8%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Jack Willoughby 45-45 7-8 87.5% 0-3 0.0% Sean Nuernberger 6'1, 227 Jr. 17-17 3-4 75.0% 0-0 N/A

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Returns Avg. TD Curtis Samuel KR 5'11, 197 Jr. 9 23.0 0 Dontre Wilson KR 5'10, 195 Sr. 7 23.9 0 Jalin Marshall PR 28 13.5 0 Ezekiel Elliott PR 2 6.5 0

Category Rk Special Teams S&P+ 56 Field Goal Efficiency 111 Punt Return Success Rate 24 Kick Return Success Rate 30 Punt Success Rate 11 Kickoff Success Rate 35

9. Mediocre special teams? From a Meyer team?

Meyer, Kansas State's Bill Snyder, and Duke's David Cutcliffe are perhaps the three best head coaches in the country at steady special teams.

But it's been a couple of years now since Meyer had a great special teams unit, and in 2015, place-kicking was downright problematic. It was basically the only major issue for this unit, but it's an important one. Jack Willoughby and Sean Nuernberger combined to make 83 percent of their field goals inside of 40 yards (not bad) but didn't make a FG over 40 all year. That's a nice club to have in your bag, and Ohio State didn't have it.

Nuernberger returns, but we'll see if he or someone else can become a more reliable weapon. If he does, this should be a fine unit. Losing Jalin Marshall's punt returning is an issue, but there are a lot of strong return man candidates, and Cameron Johnston is an excellent punter.

2016 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 3-Sep Bowling Green 60 16.5 83% 10-Sep Tulsa 93 24.8 92% 17-Sep at Oklahoma 4 -9.1 30% 1-Oct Rutgers 87 22.9 91% 8-Oct Indiana 56 16.0 82% 15-Oct at Wisconsin 37 4.6 60% 22-Oct at Penn State 28 1.6 54% 29-Oct Northwestern 46 14.7 80% 15-Nov Nebraska 26 8.3 68% 12-Nov at Maryland 62 9.9 72% 19-Nov at Michigan State 22 -0.7 48% 26-Nov Michigan 6 0.5 51% Projected wins: 8.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk 44.3% (3) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 5 / 4 2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 3 / -1.9 2015 TO Luck/Game +1.6 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 29% (22%, 36%) 2015 Second-order wins (difference) 12.1 (-0.1)

10. Surely not, right?

Ohio State has less returning production than almost anybody in the country and, per S&P+, is projected to stumble a bit in 2016. The Buckeyes are projected only 14th despite a lengthy run of success and strong recruiting, and that rating translates to quite a few tossup games.

They are given only a 51 percent chance of beating Michigan at home, 54 percent of winning at Penn State, and 60 percent of winning at Wisconsin. They are projected to lose at Oklahoma and (however slightly) Michigan State.

The rebound will likely be fierce in 2017, but there will likely be regression this fall. But that can almost work in Ohio State's favor. The Buckeyes face little pressure (at least by their standards) and can play loosely and aggressively. Meanwhile, Michigan has a very clear opportunity to surge forward and steal the division title but also faces quite a bit of pressure to do so.

All I'm going to say is, if you're Penn State or Maryland or Michigan or whoever, this would be a very good year to take Ohio State down. If you can't this year, you probably won't in 2017.