That leaves the darker options: the incapacitation or demise of Trump. No matter what you think of our president, these would be very bad for the country. But, in the name of thoroughness, we’ll go ahead and consider them.

One risk to which the elderly are vulnerable is that of losing their minds. Trump, at 70, is on the old-ish side, and dementia afflicts about 1 in 20 people ages 71 to 79. He was more lucid in interviews a decade ago, and his impulse control today seems lower than ever. Then again, Trump has never been known for extreme self-restraint, and we’re all going mentally downhill after 30, so his decline is probably normal and trivial. If not, dementia isn’t obvious in merely a year anyway. Trump could instead suffer something more dramatic, like a stroke, but we’d still have no set way to deal with it. Melania Trump, like a modern-day Edith Wilson, could wind up becoming our de facto president, which would definitely be an aesthetic improvement but not an official changing of the guard. (The “palace coup” remedy of the 25th Amendment makes things easier than they were in Wilson’s time, but only a little.) So don’t put your money on Trump leaving office for anything cognition-related.

Another possibility is that Trump could die from sickness or accident. This would be disastrous and launch a thousand conspiracy theories, at least if the cause were anything other than a tidal wave. But all of us are mortal, and four U.S. presidents—nearly 10 percent of the number we’ve had—died of non-criminal causes while in office. All it took for poor Zachary Taylor, it seems, was a bad batch of milk, apples, and cherries. George W. Bush nearly succumbed to a pretzel. Trump seems robust over all, but he is at least a few dozen pounds overweight, so there’s an above-average risk of a stroke or heart attack. Odds of it happening in year one are still low, though. Even a 50:1 payout might not be enough.

Far worse—nation-destroying, at worst—would be a premature end to the presidency because of assassination. At a time when Americans are already in a cold war with one another, such an event could trigger violence across the country and warp our politics enduringly, making Trump’s presidency look like a minor ripple by comparison. Still, nearly every president in the past 50 years has experienced attempts on his life, and that includes Trump, who has already survived at least one. (The would-be killer goes free in less than a year, which, on the face of it, seems very soon.) If the Trump-is-Hitler narrative continues to gain force even among normally level-headed people, it’ll surely inspire crazed crusaders to attempt stupid things. Depressingly, the odds of such calamity are not as low as they ought to be.

Finally, there’s a good old-fashioned military coup. This would be the South American option. You have a military that fears that the country’s democracy is sliding into dictatorship, so it seizes control by force and makes the country officially into a dictatorship, thus prompting supporters of the ousted regime to respond with guerilla methods, provoking brutal counterattacks, while the rule of law recedes ever farther into memory. It’d be a hell of a way to wreck a country, but bookmakers would be busy. The trouble with this option: coups take a while to plan. Salvador Allende got three years at the helm in Chile before getting deposed, and Juan Perón got nine in Argentina. Only the most seasoned coup leaders can get an overthrow together in a year or less, and U.S. generals aren’t steeped in the usurpation tradition. Even at 100 to 1, I’d refuse that bet.

If I’d taken statistics, I’d know, based on the estimates so far, which numerators and denominators to multiply to give you my cumulative made-up odds of Trump leaving office after less than a year. Since I haven’t, and I don’t, I’m just gonna say there’s a 1 in 40 chance of it happening. Yes, that number is, strictly speaking, useless, but perhaps for some readers it keeps hope alive. So place your bets accordingly if it makes you feel better. Just make sure you can spare the cash.

This article has been updated.