Jan 8, 2014

A little more than a week after the outbreak of violence in Anbar province, the picture of the forces fighting on the ground has become clearer. It does not, however, correspond to official Iraqi pronouncements that the conflict only involves two parties: al-Qaeda versus Iraqi security forces and their Sahwa tribal allies. At the same time, the picture also does not support declarations by Fallujah tribal leaders that the conflict is mainly one of the tribes versus government forces. Rather, Al-Monitor sources in Fallujah have confirmed the presence of at least four distinct fighting forces in and around that city.

The situation remains foggy, especially in Fallujah, where the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) emerged one day after gunmen claiming to belong to Anbar’s Sunni tribes mobilized against the Iraqi government’s decision to arrest Sunni parliamentarian Ahmed al-Alwani and break up the Ramadi sit-in by force, one year after the Sunni demonstrations had begun. The ISIS convoys of 4x4 vehicles — armed with medium weapons and anti-aircraft guns and waving the al-Qaeda banner — were terrifying and supported the scenario being presented that the ISIS had seized control of Anbari cities, in particular Fallujah, and had declared an Islamic emirate.

Almost immediately, Sahwa leaders, most prominently Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha, announced that they were fighting al-Qaeda (in his case despite his being one of the most prominent leaders of the Sunni sit-ins against the government). The Sahwa fought fierce battles against the al-Qaeda groups and managed within hours to restore official authority to most Anbari cities, except Fallujah.

The scene in Fallujah is murky. A group of prominent Anbari tribal leaders, led by Sheikh Ali Hatem al-Salman, the emir of the Dulaim tribe, has insisted that al-Qaeda is not in the city and that the confrontation there is between the tribes and the government and will continue until Sunni demands are met. The most notable demands are the release of MP Alwani and other Sunni detainees, representational balance in state institutions and repeal of the de-Baathification and anti-terrorism laws.

Information out of Fallujah, revealed to Al-Monitor by a member of the Tribal Revolutionaries' Council who requested anonymity, confirmed that some 300 ISIS members had arrived in Fallujah on the morning of Jan. 3. Most of them had just withdrawn from confrontations with tribes in Ramadi. According to the council member, “Tribal gunmen surrounded the al-Qaeda gunmen as soon as they arrived. That happened at the same time as Friday prayers, during which one al-Qaeda leader announced to the worshipers from a [mosque] platform that ISIS had come to Fallujah to protect its people and uphold the banner of Islam.”