AJC poll: Kemp's approval ratings on the rise; Trump still underwater

The poll results highlight how deeply polarizing the issue is for Georgians.

Bobbi Keith, a 48-year-old homemaker from Savannah, said she believes abortions should be allowed in certain circumstances.

“It should always be a woman’s choice, but there have to be some circumstances involved,” she said. “If it’s molestation or rape or something like that, I think it’s more (acceptable) than just someone that just had a one-night-stand and gets pregnant.”

Amy O’Sullivan, a 58-year-old Milton resident, said it’s not the government’s job to limit access to abortion.

“I don’t think it’s right to turn around and tell somebody what they can and can’t do with their own body when it comes abortion,” she said.

The poll of 774 registered voters was conducted March 24 to Monday by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

The AJC polled voters across Georgia about their thoughts on abortion, including the recently passed House Bill 481, which would ban most abortions when a doctor can detect a "heartbeat" — usually about six weeks into a pregnancy, before many women even realize they are pregnant.

Current Georgia law allows abortions to be performed until 20 weeks.

What is a heartbeat is at the center of dispute.

Supporters say it should be used to establish when life begins. Doctors who oppose the legislation, however, said what appears to be a heartbeat at six weeks signals the practice motions of developing tissues that could not on their own power a fetus without the mother.

O’Sullivan, who said she has raised three chronically ill children, said when she was pregnant the third time, the doctor told her abortion was an option.

“I was told to accept he would be sick or terminate my pregnancy with my youngest,” she said. “I looked at my husband and I said, ‘I don’t think I can do it (abort).’ But that was my decision.”

There are currently about 20 lawsuits involving abortion — including several “heartbeat” laws — up for consideration by the U.S. Supreme Court that could be used to challenge the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion nationwide.

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Georgia anti-abortion activists hope the state’s “heartbeat bill” will be the one that overturns the court’s ruling.

But poll respondents across nearly all demographics said they don’t believe Roe v. Wade should be overturned.

Nearly 58% of those responding to the AJC poll said they believed abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Almost 38% of respondents said they believed the procedure should be illegal in all or most cases. Nearly 5% declined to answer the question.

The only groups polled who said they thought Roe v. Wade should be reversed were those who consider themselves “very conservative” — at almost 70% — and about 56% of those with a family income of less than $25,000 a year.

Nearly 50% of Republicans, 83% of independents and 88% of Democrats in Georgia said the decision shouldn’t be overturned.

M.V. “Trey” Hood III, a political science professor and director of UGA’s Survey Research Center, said while there has been some national support for limits on abortion, people generally don’t want to outlaw the procedure altogether.

“Georgians may be viewing the new law, rightly or wrongly, as placing curbs on the procedure,” he said.

A national Gallup poll from July 2018 found that 64% of those surveyed did not want to overturn Roe v. Wade.

But Keith, the Savannah homemaker, said she believes the U.S. Supreme Court decision that legalized abortions up until a fetus is “viable” — usually around the third trimester — should be reversed.

“By that time, it’s no longer a fetus,” said the mother of two. “You can find out the baby’s sex at that point. It’s developed to the point that it’s a baby to me.”

How people felt about access to abortion fell along party lines. About 80% of Democrats said they think abortion should be legal in most or all cases compared with about 67% of Republicans who believe the procedure should be banned in most or all cases.

Kemp, who made a campaign promise to sign the nation’s most restrictive abortion law, is expected to sign HB 481 sometime this month. The American Civil Liberties Union of Georgia has already said it will file a lawsuit challenging the legislation.

If it becomes law, Georgia still would allow later abortions in cases of rape, incest, if the life of the mother is in danger or in instances of “medical futility,” when a fetus would not be able to survive after birth.

Someone who has become pregnant after an incident of rape or incest would have to file a police report to have the abortion performed.

Roopville auto mechanic Ben Sundling, 40, said being a Christian leads him to oppose abortion in general. But if someone who is a victim of rape or incest wanted to get an abortion, he thinks it should be allowed.

“There should be some guidelines to when you can get one,” he said. “They shouldn’t just 100% have the option to do an abortion for convenience.”

The new law would also allow parents, once a heartbeat is detected, to claim an embryo on their taxes as a dependent and it would be counted toward the state’s population.

AJC poll

The poll was conducted March 24-April 8 for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution by the School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia and included a total of 774 registered voters in Georgia. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

In 1973 the Roe v. Wade decision established a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision or not?

Yes, should be overturned — 24.3 percent

No, should not be overturned — 70.3 percent

Don’t know/refused — 5.4 percent

Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

Legal in all cases — 22.5%

Legal in most cases — 35.4%

Illegal in most cases — 26.8%

Illegal in all cases — 10.8%

Don’t know/refused — 4.5%

The Georgia Legislature has approved legislation that would ban virtually all abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, except in cases of rape and incest that are reported to authorities. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, neither support nor oppose, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this legislation?

Strongly support — 25.7%

Somewhat support — 18.6%

Neither support nor oppose — 5.7%

Somewhat oppose — 9.5%

Strongly oppose — 39.2%

Don’t know/refused — 1.3%

About this poll

The poll was conducted March 24-April 8, 2019, and included a total of 774 registered voters in Georgia.

The survey was administered by the School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia. Interviews were conducted in English. The sample included 69 percent cellphone numbers and 31 percent landline numbers and was obtained through Self Made Insights Company (SMI is a sampling vendor that maintains a database constructed from state voter registration lists. Through commercial sources, phone numbers have been added to the individual records (registrants) that make up these lists). The survey results were weighted to ensure the sample was representative of the registrant population in terms of race, sex and age.

The margin of error for the total sample is 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. This would mean that if 50 percent of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95 percent confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 53.5 percent and 46.5 percent.

Stay on top of what’s happening in Georgia government and politics at www.ajc.com/politics.