Ohio Democratic congressional candidate Danny O'Connor speaks to supporters at an election-night rally on Aug. 7 in Westerville, Ohio. | Scott Olson/Getty Images Elections Republicans look to save the next Ohio-12 Special election results suggest the GOP is vulnerable in a number of traditionally red House districts.

The narrow margin in last week’s special congressional election in Ohio’s 12th district — which Republicans have held for 35 years and that Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2016 — has the party worried about what other seats, once thought safe, will be in play in the midterm elections.

There are three types of districts Republicans must defend if they hope to keep control of the House next year: the suburban seats that shifted dramatically toward Hillary Clinton in the last election; the traditionally Democratic seats where Trump surged and provided a boost to his party; and the consistently — but not overwhelmingly — Republican seats, like Ohio’s 12th, where Trump’s low approval ratings threaten the GOP’s chances.


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The five seats below fit mostly in that last category. And the fact that some of them are competitive at all is a sign that the Republican majority is in grave danger this November.

Kansas’ 2nd District

Republicans have held this Eastern Kansas district for all but two years since the party claimed the seat in the 1994 GOP wave year. But two factors contribute to it being in play this year: the national environment, and the retirement of the Republican incumbent, Rep. Lynn Jenkins, who has won the last five elections there, her last by 28 points.

Democrats nominated former state Rep. Paul Davis, the party’s unsuccessful 2014 nominee for governor. Davis, who lost statewide by 4 points, carried the district in that race.

Democrats nominated former state Rep. Paul Davis, the party’s unsuccessful 2014 nominee for governor. | Orlin Wagner/AP Photo

The winner of last week’s Republican primary was Steve Watkins, an Army veteran and former defense contractor. Watkins’ campaign was mostly self-financed: He loaned his campaign the majority of its funds, and an outside super PAC backing him was run by Steven Watkins — the candidate’s father.

Trump won 56 percent of the vote here in 2016, up just a point from Romney’s 55 percent in 2012.

Democrats are excited about their candidate: Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA and Defense Department official. | Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Michigan’s 8th District

The seat held by GOP Rep. Mike Bishop looks a lot like Ohio-12: It’s mostly white and fairly well-educated.

But it’s slightly less Republican than the Ohio seat — Trump won 50 percent of the vote here — which is why Bishop is in the fight of his political life.

Democrats are excited about their candidate: Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA and Defense Department official. She appears far more formidable than Bishop’s challenger two years ago — a 29-year-old local prosecutor — and has outraised the incumbent so far in the race.

Mark Harris has made controversial statements — including about women in the workplace — and he’s raised only $931,000 for the race. | Chuck Burton/AP Photo

North Carolina’s 9th District

Democrats haven’t even competed in this suburban Charlotte district in the past two elections. The party didn’t field a candidate against Republican Rep. Robert Pittenger in 2014, and his 2016 challenger raised only $55,000 for the race, compared to Pittenger’s $1.1 million.

But Democrats have a top-tier candidate this year: Dan McCready, a retired Marine and local businessman. McCready has also been a fundraising machine, bringing in $2.7 million through the end of June.

McCready’s chances got a boost back in May, when Pittenger, who barely survived a 2016 primary challenge, was felled in the GOP primary by pastor Mark Harris. Harris has made controversial statements — including about women in the workplace — and he’s raised only $931,000 for the race.

Trump won 54 percent of the vote here in 2016, down a point from Romney’s 55 percent four years prior.

This year, Democrats have a well-funded challenger: Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval. | John Minchillo/AP Photo

Ohio’s 1st District

Rep. Steve Chabot, who was first elected in 1994, was swept out of his Cincinnati-based district when, in 2008, when — with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket — a Democratic wave gave the party its largest majority since 1992.

But Chabot came right back and won when the House flipped to Republicans in 2010, and he’s been reelected easily ever since. He won, 59 percent to 41 percent, last cycle, when Trump carried the district, 51 percent to 44 percent.

Trump’s vote share, however, was off by a point from Romney’s 52 percent there: The 1st and 12th districts are the only GOP-held seats in Ohio where Trump underperformed the last Republican nominee.

This year, Democrats have a well-funded challenger: Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval. He’s already raised $1.6 million, compared to Chabot’s 2016 challenger, who only brought in $217,000 for the entire cycle.

Pureval has an unconventional name — “[Aftab] means sunshine,” he says in his first ad — and he will likely be Chabot’s strongest opponent since he came back to Congress in 2011.

Rep. Dave Joyce, R-Ohio, has easily won reelection since his first victory in 2012, but he faces a stiffer challenge this year against attorney Betsy Rader. | Mark Duncan/AP Photo

Ohio’s 14th District

Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) represents a district in northeast Ohio that only moved modestly toward Republicans — Trump won 53 percent of the vote here, compared to 51 percent for Romney — even as the state shifted more dramatically.

Joyce has easily won reelection since his first victory in 2012, but he faces a stiffer challenge this year against attorney Betsy Rader, who has already raised more than $1 million for the race. (Joyce’s challenger in 2016 only raised $228,000.)

The district is far down the list of Democratic targets — though the party is watching the race, and Rader does appear on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red-to-Blue” list. If it’s close on Election Day, it’s likely that Democrats are reclaiming the majority in November.