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Alex Salmond says he will vote down a Tory government. Then he will be Labour’s kingmaker if they try to form one.

This is what he confirmed to the New Statesman yesterday. “Salmond says the SNP would make amendments to any proposed Labour budget, to introduce ‘progressive tax measures’,” Jason Cowley reported. As Matthew D’Ancona put it this weekend, Salmond is “proposing to hammer the final nail in New Labour’s coffin and rewrite Ed Balls’ first budget”.

But what makes us think Salmond will be able to demand anything from Labour? At first it makes sense. The latest polls suggest Labour are set for 270 to 275 seats – around 50 short of a majority. The SNP are on course for around 50 seats. The SNP could put Labour in power, and therefore should be able to demand anything they want.

Yet when Salmond and the SNP meet with Labour on the morning of May 8, they won’t have any bargaining power. As a senior Labour insider put it to us:

“If you come to me and say ‘I’m going to vote for you or I’m going to vote for the other guy, what can you offer me?’, I’d say ‘Ok, I’ll build you an airport’.

“But if you come to me and say ‘I might vote for you but I’m definitely not voting for the other guy’, I’m giving you nothing.”

“It’s like in the Godfather II, when the Senator meets with Michael.”

This is what happens when the Senator (read: the SNP) meets with Michael (Ed Miliband).

When Alex Salmond or Nicola Sturgeon or Angus Robertson, or whomever is leading the SNP negotiations, meet with Miliband on May 8, the Labour leader could refuse to give them anything – an end to austerity, new tax measures, a delay on renewing Trident.

Instead he could call the SNP’s bluff and force them to abstain or vote against Labour in a Queen’s Speech. Then the SNP, whose support is based on their opposition to the Tories, would have to explain to their voters why they didn’t replace the Coalition with a centre-left government.

The problem with this logic, and analogy, is that Ed Miliband is Michael Corleone. Will he be capable of driving so hard a bargain? Does he appreciate his own negotiating strength?

The problem with this analogy is that Ed Miliband is Michael Corleone.

Some Labour strategists are hopeful that Ed Miliband is, above all things, brutal when necessary. He was when he stood against his brother and when he challenged Murdoch. And he will be being guided by Charlie Falconer, head of his ‘transition’ team and a New Labour veteran, and perhaps other figures from the Blair years who are used to wielding power.

What happens if Miliband offers the SNP nothing and the SNP don’t back him? Based on current polls, Labour won’t be able to pass a Queen’s Speech without SNP support; Lib Dem and minor party support would be insufficient.

It’s plausible the SNP could get away with abstaining on a Labour confidence vote if they could paint Labour’s budget as indistinguishable from Tory austerity. If they did so, and Labour were unable to form a government in the 14-day window after Cameron resigns, a snap election would be called.

This may be the only bargaining chip the SNP have left: who benefits from a snap election? It’s unlikely to be Labour, whose leader would have – in this scenario – won fewer votes than Cameron and scarcely have added to its 2010 seat total. The Tories could stress the need for ‘competence in chaotic times’.

Would the SNP pay a price for not supporting Labour? Labour strategists hope so, but polls suggest little love is lost for either Jim Murphy or Ed Miliband across Scotland. A certain logic implies Labour should offer Scotland’s separatists nothing, but it’s easy to see how they end up offering them everything necessary to take power.