Despite what could be classified as “having a bit of a mare” in Gameweek 29 – both Jose Fonte and Kevin Mirallas sent off, captain Sergio Aguero and Romelu Lukaku missing penalties, and 1 of our big hitters, Diego Costa, not playing – our squad still managed to bring home 62 points, 9 better than the gameweek average. Shout-outs go to the aforementioned Aguero (22 points as captain) and Riyad Mahrez (11), whilst Joe Hart and Bacary Sagna repaid our faith with a double clean sheet: 1 of only 4 available over the course of the weekend. With a heavily reduced fixture list in Gameweek 30 (only 10 teams playing), read on as we analyse the bookmakers’ odds to help you make those all important Fantasy Football decisions…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Tottenham 2.1 48% Leicester 2.3 43% Bournemouth 2.38 42% Man City 2.45 41% Stoke 3 33% Southampton 3 33% Swansea 4 25% Aston Villa 6 17% Newcastle 6.5 15% Norwich 6.5 15% Chelsea No fixture No fixture Man Utd No fixture No fixture Everton No fixture No fixture Liverpool No fixture No fixture Watford No fixture No fixture Crystal Palace No fixture No fixture Arsenal No fixture No fixture West Brom No fixture No fixture Sunderland No fixture No fixture West Ham No fixture No fixture

A trip to Villa Park sees Tottenham top the bookies defensive rankings, with the Lilywhites afforded a 48% chance of a clean sheet. On paper this assertion looks relatively straightforward, with Spurs boasting the best defence in the league (24 goals conceded), whilst Villa have the poorest attack (22 goals scored). Recent form makes for slightly different reading though, with Mauricio Pochettino’s men registering just 1 shutout in their last 6 away games, whilst Remi Garde’s charges have only blanked in front of their own fans once in their last 6 outings. Still, with Toby Alderweireld offering potential returns at both ends of the pitch (3 goals and 3 assists this season), and the classy Hugo Lloris between the sticks, Tottenham defensive assets look a must for this gameweek and we double up on the Belgian and French pair.

It comes as no surprise to see Leicester (43%) 2nd in this weekend’s defensive table, with Claudio Ranieri’s league leaders entertaining a troubled Newcastle side, who are the lowest away scorers in the division (7 goals in 14 games). In stark contrast to the recent stats for the Villa-Spurs encounter, the Foxes have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 home games, whilst the Magpies have blanked in 5 of their last 6 on the road. All signs, therefore, point to a home shutout, so Christian Fuchs and Robert Huth make our squad, with their respective assist and goal threats an added bonus.

The top 5 this gameweek are completed by Bournemouth (42%), Manchester City (41%) and Stoke (33%). The Cherries enjoy a home clash with Swansea, with Eddie Howe’s men shutting out their opponents in 3 of their last 6 home games. 2 clean sheets, 2 assists, 1 goal and 6 bonus points have helped Charlie Daniels average 6 points per game since the start of February, and as a result he makes our recommended XV. The Sky Blues returned to winning ways last weekend with a 4-0 trouncing of Aston Villa, keeping their 1st clean sheet in 4. City visit Norwich this weekend, but with the Canaries only failing to score twice in 14 games at Carrow Road this term, things may not be clear cut for Vincent Kompany and co. With both full back slots subject to rotation, the Belgian man mountain represents the safest route into the City back line and is our recommendation for this gameweek. Stoke and Southampton face each other at The Britannia on Saturday and are considered equally likely to keep a clean sheet by the bookies. However, we plump for Stoke as our 5th placed team for Gameweek 30 in order to allow us to pick Jack Butland, the top point scoring keeper in Fantasy Football this season (128 points), as our backup keeper.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet rankings tells us that defensive assets from Aston Villa (17% – home to Tottenham), Newcastle (15% – away to Leicester) and Norwich (15% – home to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Sergio Aguero 1.88 53% Harry Kane 2.05 49% Jamie Vardy 2.2 45% Leonardo Ulloa 2.9 34% Shinji Okazaki 2.9 34% Dele Alli 3 33% Benik Afobe 3 33% Nacer Chadli 3.1 32% Riyad Mahrez 3.25 31% Christian Eriksen 3.25 31% Yaya Toure 3.25 31% Shane Long 3.3 30% Raheem Sterling 3.4 29% Graziano Pelle 3.5 29% Bojan 3.65 27% Josh King 3.65 27% Mame Biram Diouf 3.75 27% David Silva 3.75 27% Bafetimbi Gomis 4.1 24% Sadio Mane 4.2 24% Alberto Paloschi 4.2 24% Marko Arnautovic 4.25 24% Aleksandar Mitrovic 4.33 23% Cameron Jerome 4.33 23% Dieumerci Mbokani 4.33 23% Rudy Gestede 4.5 22% Andre Ayew 4.5 22% Gylfi Sigurdsson 4.5 22% Dusan Tadic 4.75 21% Matt Ritchie 4.8 21% Max Gradel 4.8 21% Ayoze Perez 4.9 20% Xherdan Shaqiri 5 20% Steven Naismith 5 20% Jordan Ayew 5.4 19% Georginio Wijnaldum 6 17% Nathan Redmond 7 14% Andros Townsend 8 13% Carles Gil 8 13% Leandro Bacuna 11 9%

Following his brace (and penalty miss) last weekend, Sergio Aguero once again tops the bookies’ attacking ranks with a 53% chance of finding the back of the net away to Norwich. With the Canaries conceding 2 or more goals in each of their last 4 Premier League home games, things look peachy for the Argentine, who has scored 9 in his last 9 league games, including notching in 3 of his last 4 away from The Etihad. For the 2nd week running, Aguero dons our captain’s armband courtesy of his position at the pinnacle of the bookmakers’ attacking ladder.

Up front, the City talisman is joined by 2 England strikers: Harry Kane (49%) and Jamie Vardy (42%). Kane scored his 17th league goal of the campaign – an absolute stunner – against Arsenal last time out and will be relishing the prospect of facing the worst defence in the division (55 goals conceded in 29 games) when he travels to the Midlands to tackle Aston Villa on Sunday. Similarly, international teammate Vardy will be licking his lips ahead of the arrival of Newcastle at The King Power. The Toon have lost their last 6 on the trot away from home, conceding over 2 goals per game on average during that run, so the Premier League’s top scorer will be confident of notching his 20th of the season come Monday evening as Leicester look to continue their surge towards the title.

The 1st midfielder to make our squad for this weekend is Yaya Toure (31%). After bagging City’s opener last time out, and facing Norwich’s leaky defence, the Ivorian powerhouse looks a solid pick. Joining Toure in our midfield is Bournemouth’s Josh King (27%). A goal, an assist and maximum bonus points against Newcastle last weekend bodes well for the Cherries’ Norwegian attacker, who faces a Swansea side without an away clean sheet in 5 games.

Completing our quartet in the middle of the park are Sadio Mane and Marko Arnautovic (both 24%). Mane, a breakout star of last season, has 3 goals and 8 assists to his name this term, whilst Arnautovic has come to the fore this campaign, carding 9 goals and 4 assists. The 2 face each other this weekend and with 9 of the previous 11 meetings in all competitions between Stoke and Southampton seeing both teams scoring, both players could potentially profit. Gylfi Sigurdsson (22%), on the back of 6 goals in 10 games since the turn of the year, makes our bench.

Other viable options for the midfield positions include Spurs trio Dele Alli (33%), Nacer Chadli (32%) and Christian Eriksen (31%), Algerian sensation Riyad Mahrez (31%), and Manchester City duo Raheem Sterling (29%) and David Silva (27%), but they all miss out on our recommended XV due to squad selection restraints.

The Gameweek Squad

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