NEW DELHI: Indian forces on Tuesday killed 18 terrorists trying to sneak into India from Pakistan, security sources said. A big part of the border violence is linked to Islamabad's design to push disruptive elements and terrorists across the border before snow sets up on the mountain passes, they said.

Ceasefire violations on the LOC have risen for couple of years, but this year the targeting of civilians has added another dimension. More than 20 unprovoked firing incidents have taken place ever since Narendra Modi took office, which sharpened after the foreign secretary talks were cancelled. The violations, earlier limited to the LOC, have now spread to the international boundary.

"From the time of Modi's election, Pakistan army's been testing him. LOC firing is part of the process," said Vivek Katju, former diplomat and Pakistan expert. Tuesday's massive Indian retaliation may be a pointer to how New Delhi will respond.

"Islamabad seems to be signalling two things -- one for the international community, seeking attention, and second, a message to India that it cannot continue ignoring Pakistan which can create enough trouble to bring New Delhi to the table," says Rana Banerji, security expert.

Pakistan hasn't had it easy of late – a spike in terrorism against Pakistan, internal instability, yawn-worthy attention from the US. Worse, China appeared to be getting friendly with India, cancelling Xi Jinping's Islamabad trip. Kashmir, the cause in Pakistan's eyes, was being pushed to the global backburner.

India draws a direct correlation between this quest for international relevance, Nawaz Sharif's UN address calling for plebiscite and the escalation of border violence. In addition, it's been a tried and tested way of Pakistan bonding against the India threat.

While attention-grabbing may be on Pakistani minds in the short term, in the longer term, it could be setting in place a plan for next summer. In some weeks, snow will choke most passes. By the time they reopen in spring, it may coincide with J&K elections, which are almost certain to be delayed because of flood devastation.

Pakistan, says former envoy G Parthasarathy, could be investing in stoking popular discontent in the Kashmir Valley after the floods.

Pakistan believes India's greater conventional military capability gives it greater leeway on both ends of the spectrum – to continue with the asymmetry of terrorism at the lower end and extend the threat of nuclear escalation on the upper.

Used together, Islamabad believes it can constrain New Delhi's military threat. India has this time refused to buy this argument stepping up conventional military response and said it wouldn't seek a meeting of DGMOs.

On Monday, the US state department obliged with a statement. "We continue to encourage India and Pakistan to engage in dialogue," spokesperson Jen Psaki said. "Our policy on Kashmir hasn't changed. We believe that the pace, scope, and character of India and Pakistan's dialogue on Kashmir is for those two countries to determine."