Jim Waymer

FLORIDA TODAY

Would you still live in Florida if the population was 33.7 million, up from about 20 million today, and a third of the state's land was covered with rooftops, roads and other development?

A new analysis by University of Florida, on behalf of the nonprofit 1000 Friends of Florida, found that over the next five decades the Sunshine State will grow all over the map, blanketing as much as a third of the state's landscape in development. Growth will center near all the usual hotspots, but especially along the Interstate 4 corridor in Central Florida, followed by urban centers in Northeast and South Florida. The Panhandle, not so much.

Houses, businesses and roads will swallow up several million acres of farms and habitats, unless development densities are increased, the study found. And that could mean costlier roads, drinking water, drainage and sewer systems. But even modest increases in development densities could save huge swaths of land and money, the study found, without sacrificing jobs.

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"I'd say the most critical message is that sprawl is wasteful," said Peggy Carr, a professor at UF's GeoPlan Center, who worked on the analysis. "Land is finite."

Using projections from the UF's Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, the researchers expect the state's population to swell to 33.7 million by 2070. Growth will center near existing cities and roads.

"By far, the greatest percent of land area that will become developed ... is in the Central Florida region, but Northeast Florida follows that," Carr said.

The maps, released today (Thursday, Sept. 15) paint a stark, sprawling picture for the Sunshine State, with crimson clusters representing where more rooftops, roads and other development will cover Florida wetlands, scrub and other habitats, increasing polluted runoff.

The researchers prepared a base map of 2010 development and conservation patterns, using county property appraiser, U.S. Census and state conservation mapping data.

They then used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to examine two scenarios for 2070, comparing them to 2010. The first scenario continues current patterns, with the same densities of development and no new protection lands added. Their alternative scenario accommodates the same population growth but increases development density in each county by 20 percent to save more farmlands, wetlands and wildlife. It also adds lands on the proposed Florida Forever Acquisition lists and lands identified as Priorities 1 and 2 in the Florida Ecological Greenways Network.

Statewide, they found the following for the two scenarios they examined for 2070:

Under current development patterns, more than 11.6 million acres (33.7 percent of Florida land) would be developed versus 9.7 million acres (28.3 percent) under the alternative higher density development scenario. In 2010, roughly 6.4 million acres (18.6 percent) were developed;

Increasing development density 20 percent saves 1.8 million acres of raw land from development, 5.8 million acres of conservation lands and keeps 1.3 million more acres of agricultural lands in production;

Increasing density 20 percent saves 15.7 million acres of protected land (excluding agriculture), versus 9.9 million acres in the status quo scenario.

Central Florida:

Likely to see the greatest absolute and relative increase in developed lands, compared with the other three regions, growing from 2.7 million acres (25.85 percent) developed land to 5.1 million acres (48.3 percent);

Croplands, livestock and aquaculture dip from 3.6 million acres (34.6 percent) to 2.1 million acres (20.1 percent), but would be 2.5 million (24 percent) under the higher density scenario;

1.7 million acres (16.5 percent) of protected land (excluding agriculture) grows to 2.3 million acres (22.4 percent)

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South Florida

Most dramatic changes happen south of Lake Okeechobee, especially in Palm Beach, Hendry and Glades counties, followed by Lee and Collier counties;

Large swaths of protected land in the Everglades/Big Cypress complex, coupled with higher development densities result in significantly smaller portion of new lands converting to development;

Development grows from 1.2 million acres (15.8 percent) to 2.3 million acres (30.5 percent) under the status quo pattern, versus 1.7 million acres (22.3 percent) in the higher-density scenario;.

3.4 million acres (44.6 percent) non-agricultural land get protected, versus 3.7 million (47.8 percent) in the higher-density scenario;

Croplands, livestock and aquaculture dip from 1.9 million acres (25.6 percent) to 1.3 million acres (25.6 percent) versus 1 million acres (13 percent) in the higher-density scenario;

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Panhandle

Remains least developed region in Florida, regardless of which development scenario;

Grows from 1 million acres (12 percent) to 1.4 million acres (17.4 percent) under current patterns, versus 1.3 million acres (16.3 percent) using higher density growth;

Protects 2.2 million acres (26.7 percent), versus 3.8 million acres (45.4 percent) under higher density growth;

750,000 acres remains in croplands, livestock and aquaculture, versus 705,834 acres (8.4 percent) ;

Mining, timber and other land uses decrease from 4.3 million acres (51.8 percent) to 3.9 million acres (46.5 percent), versus 2.4 million (29 percent) under higher density.

“Florida 2070 clearly shows that what may seem like small conservation and development decisions we make today have significant, long-term ramifications,” said Vivian Young, who coordinated the project on behalf of 1000 Friends.

The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services contributed $20,607 for the study, which officials hope focuses attention on how future development might impact the farming sector.

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"We wanted to get that conversation going," said Cori Hermle, environmental consultant with FDACS’ Office of Agricultural Water Policy.

The 1000 Friends of Florida released a similar report in 2006 that predicted a doubling of Brevard County's population to more than 1 million residents and of Florida's to more than 36 million by 2060.

Brevard County's comprehensive growth plan provides for a residential density bonus in lands designated for commercial land use. It also has related policies to encourage protection of agricultural lands, conservation lands and developing self-sufficient, walkable communities.

The 1000 Friends report calls for more funding for greenways and wildlife corridors, more affordable housing, as well as incentives and increased funding to help landowners conserve farmlands and other working landscapes.

Saving farms and habitats won't require changing the fundamental character of cities and other urban areas, the researchers said. Nor would it cost jobs, they say.

"We're not talking about bulldozing all our cities and making them canyons of condos," Young said. "We're talking about compact development, we're not talking about doing away with development."

Contact Waymer at 321-242-3663 or jwaymer@floridatoday.com. Follow him on Twitter @JWayEnviro and at facebook.com/jim.waymer

What will Florida look like in 2070?

Visit the 1000 Friends of Florida website here