by Aaron Schatz

Well, that was certainly a strange week in the NFL. As Andrew Healy detailed in this week's Any Given Sunday, Week 2 of 2015 ended up as one of the ten most surprising, upset-filled weeks of the past 35 years. Vegas favorites went either 6-10 or 7-9, depending on which team a given gambling establishment had listed as the favorite in the New England-Buffalo game.

The strangeness extended to the Football Outsiders Premium picks, based on our DAVE ratings. Almost every week, the Premium picks will do better straight up than against the spread; after all, the point of the spread is to make picking games tougher than just picking winners and losers. A couple of times per year, the spread picks will actually do better than the straight picks. But usually, the difference is a win or two. Not this week. The Premium picks were 11-5 against the spread this week, which is excellent. Those same picks were 6-10 straight up, which is miserable. That gap is colossal and really weird. When straight picks go five wins better than spread picks, that's a bit extreme but not too crazy. Spread picks going five wins better than straight picks is unheard of.

There was a lot of attention paid to teams that put up surprise wins in Week 2, but the DVOA system gets even more excited about teams that put up surprisingly large wins. Our DVOA leader through Week 2 is a team whose two wins are a surprise more for their size than for the actual W's. We've been writing all offseason, and in Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, about how the Arizona Cardinals' play-by-play performance did not match their win-loss record in 2014. We predicted that the Cardinals were due for decline this season, and we projected them as likely to miss the playoffs. Nonetheless, it wasn't hard to imagine the Cardinals starting the season 2-0. The Cardinals were ranked 23rd in DVOA in the final preseason forecast, while New Orleans ranked No. 17 and Chicago ranked No. 25. It's not strange to beat a slightly better team in your home stadium, but it's also not strange to beat a slightly worse team on the road.

What's weird is that the Cardinals didn't just beat these teams, they destroyed them. Arizona has won its first two games by a combined 79-42. The Cardinals had 66.5% DVOA in Week 1 and 107.6% DVOA in Week 2. Except... that's without opponent adjustments. We're not doing the opponent adjustments yet. And given the way New Orleans and Chicago each played in their other games so far, it's reasonable to believe that neither team is as good as we forecast in the preseason. These may be the two worst defenses in the league.

Trying to figure out the meaning of big early wins over (perceived as) weak opponents is an annual tradition for NFL analysts. It was just a year ago that we were trying to figure out what we learned from Washington's 41-10 dismantling of Jacksonville. In the long run, it turns out we didn't learn much. The 2014 Redskins were not a good team, just a team with a great game against a weak opponent. But Washington had lost in Week 1, so we were trying to figure out the impact of just one game without opponent adjustments. What about two early games without opponent adjustments?

It turns out that Arizona comes out of Week 2 as the best team in DVOA since the 2007 Patriots. Here's a look at every team in DVOA history with a rating of 70% or more after two games. (All of these teams played in Weeks 1-2 except for the 2008 Ravens, who had their Week 2 game in Houston postponed due to Hurricane Ike. This is Weeks 1-3 for them.)

Best DVOA for 2-0 Teams,1989-2015 YEAR TEAM DVOA

WEEK 2 FINAL

W-L FINAL

DVOA FINAL

RK PLAYOFF

APPEARANCE DVOA RANK

Y-1 2005 PIT 111.5% 11-5 27.2% 4 WC 1 1990 CHI 101.3% 11-5 15.0% 9 DIV 11 1996 GB 94.4% 13-3 42.0% 1 DIV 5 2007 NE 93.5% 16-0 52.9% 1 DIV 3 1996 SF 87.8% 12-4 29.3% 2 WC 1 2002 SD 85.9% 8-8 -2.4% 21 -- 13 2015 ARI 85.2% -- -- -- -- 22 1989 CLE1 83.3% 9-6-1 24.4% 2 DIV -- 1999 PIT 77.7% 6-10 1.4% 20 -- 16 2007 PIT 75.6% 10-6 19.4% 6 DIV 10 1996 SD 74.8% 8-8 -0.5% 18 -- 12 2003 KC 74.6% 13-3 30.3% 1 DIV 4 1991 WAS 73.2% 14-2 56.9% 1 DIV 5 1997 NE 72.7% 10-6 12.0% 7 DIV 8 2013 DEN 72.1% 13-3 32.7% 2 DIV 2 2005 NYG 72.0% 11-5 18.5% 9 DIV 25 2008 BAL 70.8% 11-5 27.6% 2 WC 19

If you look at that table, you'll notice that almost all of these teams ended up with winning records and a trip to the playoffs after they started their season with two huge wins. However, almost all of these teams had also ranked among the top teams in DVOA the year before. What happens if we just compare the Cardinals to the teams that didn't rank in the top dozen for DVOA the year before?

The 2002 Chargers started the year by beating Cincinnati 34-6 on the road, then Houston 24-3 at home. But even at the time, it was clear that you had to consider the opponents. Cincinnati was 26th in DVOA the year before, and finished 29th in 2002. Houston was an expansion team. The Chargers blew their 4-0 start when the schedule got harder and finished 8-8.

The 1999 Steelers started by whipping the new expansion Browns 43-0 in the game with the highest single-game DVOA ofall-time. That whole rating is really that game, and that game really told us nothing about the 1999 Steelers. The second win was 23-20 over Baltimore,which was 6-10 (15th in DVOA) the year before and 8-8 (11th in DVOA) that year.

The 2005 Giants whipped an Arizona team that had been29th in DVOA the year before, and then a New Orleans team that had been 27ththe year before and was in the middle of the Hurricane Katrina nightmare.That game was played in New Jersey even though it was originally scheduled for New Orleans. But guess what? Despite their big first two wins coming over two very weak opponents, the Giants were absolutely for real! The Giants went from 25th in DVOA the year before to ninth in 2005 and won the NFC East at 11-5.

The big start for the 2008 Ravens looked a lot more impressive at the time. Cleveland and Cincinnati had ranked 12th and 16th in DVOA the year before. But by the end of 2008, those teams were 26th and 27th in DVOA. Nonetheless, the 2008 Ravens were definitely an improved team,though they didn't show it when they lost their next three games including a 31-3 loss in Indianapolis. Then the Ravens finished 9-2 to make the playoffs.

So what's the story with the Arizona Cardinals? It's hard to know. I still believe strongly in the numbers from last year that showed that the Cardinals were not as good as their 11-5 record. I know that some of the best players on their offense are aging, and are likely not going to be this good over the course of the year against better defenses. I also know that the Arizona defense lost a lot of talent between last season and this season. However, there's no doubt that Arizona's first two wins were hugely impressive. And we know that Bruce Arians has this habit of destroying our mediocre projections for his teams. We'll have to see what happens to this team once they've played some harder opponents, and once the schedule adjustments kick in for the ratings on these early games.

Nonetheless, those huge first two games have a big impact on the DAVE ratings that combine current DVOA with our preseason projections. The current DAVE formula counts the projection as 75 percent of the rating after Week 2. That sounds like a lot, but if a team has two great games like Arizona has, that DVOA will totally outweigh the preseason projection once we combine the two. Arizona and Denver are now tied for No. 2 in DAVE behind New England, and the Cardinals now win the Super Bowl in 12.1 percent of our simulations, second only to the Patriots. That sounds like a bit of an overreaction to the first two games, and we'll have to see how things shake out. Regular FO readers know we have a long to-do list of improvements to our formulas that we never seem to get the time for, but that to-do list includes both re-evaluating the percentages involved in DAVE and incorporating the preseason projections as an opponent adjustment to be used early in the season. Both of those changes might mute the loud charge of the Cardinals up our playoff odds report standings.

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Speaking of the playoff odds report, we've made a big change this week to try to properly measure the impact of the injury to Dallas quarterback Tony Romo. For most teams, our simulation uses the same DAVE rating for each week of the season, adjusted only by the new dynamic simulation equation that boosts teams after wins and penalizes them after losses. However, we've programmed something different for Dallas. The simulation now uses a DAVE that is based on Brandon Weeden as the Dallas starting quarterback for Weeks 3-9. In Weeks 10-12, half the simulations use that rating and half use a rating based on Tony Romo as the quarterback. In Weeks 13-17, all simulations expect Tony Romo to be playing quarterback for Dallas. This programming gives us a more realistic output that reflects the schedule, including the fact that Washington's two games with Dallas are both after Week 12 while both Philadelphia and New York will play a backup Dallas quarterback for their Cowboys rematches.

Because there is not yet an announcement of Jay Cutler or Drew Brees missing more than a game or two, we did not program in anything similar for Chicago or New Orleans. But Chicago already is the lowest team in DAVE even without accounting for games to be started by Jimmy Claussen. The Bears now get the No. 1 pick in 26.5 percent of our simulations, and a top-3 pick in over half our simulations.

One last note, just so people can appreciate how strange it is before it goes away with a larger sample size: Peyton Manning is in last place in passing DYAR through two games. No, seriously, he is. And yes, if you are looking for more hot Brady vs. Manning debate action, Tom Brady is indeed in first place. That's somewhat an issue of volume as well as quality; Brady is only fifth in DVOA.

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Once again in 2015, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 16 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. One player each week will only be available for 24 hours from the point these players enter packs on Friday.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 2 are:

DT Geno Atkins, CIN (24 HOURS ONLY) : Sack, 2 hurries, 3 quarterback knockdowns despite facing almost constant double-teams.

: Sack, 2 hurries, 3 quarterback knockdowns despite facing almost constant double-teams. WR Travis Benjamin, CLE : Fourth among Week 2 wide receivers with 55 DYAR (3-for-4, 115 yards, 2 TD) plus 154 yards on 6 punt returns including a 78-yard TD. Punt returns were worth an estimated 8.3 points of field position more than an average punt returner would get with similar opportunities.

: Fourth among Week 2 wide receivers with 55 DYAR (3-for-4, 115 yards, 2 TD) plus 154 yards on 6 punt returns including a 78-yard TD. Punt returns were worth an estimated 8.3 points of field position more than an average punt returner would get with similar opportunities. RB Dion Lewis, NE : Led all running backs in Week 2 with 46 DYAR (7 runs, 40 yards, TD; 5-for-10 on passes, 98 receiving yards).

: Led all running backs in Week 2 with 46 DYAR (7 runs, 40 yards, TD; 5-for-10 on passes, 98 receiving yards). RG Brandon Linder, JAC : Allowed no sacks, quarterback hits, or pressures against Ndamukong Suh and the Miami defensive line.

: Allowed no sacks, quarterback hits, or pressures against Ndamukong Suh and the Miami defensive line. LE Brian Robison, MIN: Led NFL with 5 defeats in Week 2 including two PDs on third down.

Apologies to all the rabid Crockett Gillmore fans out there, he was our last cut from this list of five. We always try to do at least one offensive lineman and two defensive players.

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All stats pages are now updated through Week 2 of 2015. That includes for the first time offensive lines, defensive lines, and defense vs. receivers. (Defense by side of the field is also now updated as of Wednesday evening.) Snap counts and playoff odds are also fully updated. The FO Premium database is now updated through Week 2, and the Matchup View now shows 2015 stats instead of 2014 stats.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through two weeks of 2015, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

Please note that there are no opponent adjustments in DVOA until after Week 4. (It's still listed as DVOA instead of VOA because I don't feel like going through and changing all the tables manually.) In addition, our second weekly table which includes schedule strength, variation, and Estimated Wins will appear beginning after Week 4.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 75 percent of DAVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>