INDIANAPOLIS - U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar is in the most precarious position of his political career since autumn 1974 when he unsuccessfully challenged Democratic incumbent Birch Bayh. A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll released today reveals Lugar with a 42-35% lead over Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, with the two evenly splitting the vote among the 72% of primary voters identifying with the GOP. It has prompted HPI to move this race into "tossup" from "Leans Lugar." The poll by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democrat pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, was conducted March 26-28 of 503 likely Republican primary voters and March 26 -27 of 503 likely Indiana general election voters. It has a +/-4.5% margin of error. The polling came after Lugar had experienced a terrible week. He took broadside headlines related to the residency issue in the week before the polling, with the Democratic Marion County Election Board denying the voting address he had used since joining the Senate in the late 70's. The three days of polling coincided with the beginning of a statewide Club for Growth TV assault ad branding Lugar as a big tax and spender who loves earmarks. Sen. Lugar is confronted with a historic low 10% approval rating of Congress, according to the Howey/DePauw survey. A stunning 81% of those polled disapprove of Congress' actions. A recent Gallup national survey has Congressional approval at 12%. Howey/DePauw revealed that 26% of Hoosiers see the U.S. on the "right track" compared to 61% who see the nation on the "wrong track." Lugar and Mourdock are evenly splitting the GOP vote. If Indiana did not have an open primary system, a record seventh term for Lugar would be doomed. In the Republican portion of Howey/DePauw, 72% identified themselves as Republican, 14% as independents/lean Republican and 14% as independents. When Howey/DePauw asked respondents "What candidate does this statement better describe Richard Lugar/Richard Mourdock," 36% said Lugar "shares my values" compared to 28% for Mourdock. "Is running a negative campaign" had 24% Mourdock and 15% Lugar, and "Will get things done" had a 10-point (40-30%) Lugar advantage. Essentially, the May 8 Republican primary has turned into a referendum on Lugar. Some 40% of Republican voters have no opinion of Mourdock, and another 17% have never heard of the two-term treasurer who led the GOP ticket in his 2010 reelection bid. Among likely Republican voters, 47% have a favorable opinion of Lugar and 31% unfavorable, compared to Mourdock with a 24% favorable to 18% unfavorable. The silver lining for Lugar, who is facing an onslaught of special interest money on behalf of Mourdock from the National Rifle Association, Club for Growth and FreedomWorks, is that in a head-to-head matchup with Donnelly among general election voters, Lugar leads 50-29% and has strong support in Marion County. In a head-to-head between Mourdock and Donnelly, the race is tied at 35% with the Indianapolis support shifting away from the Republican. Another element is the endorsement of Gov. Mitch Daniels, who has a 63% approval rating (and 31% disapproving) from general election voters and an 86% approval from Republicans, according to Howey/DePauw. At a February fundraiser in Carmel, Daniels said of Lugar, "Indiana continues to be blessed by one of the greatest public servants not of our modern times, not of our state's history, but in American history - and it's not stretching the point. Dick Lugar is genuinely a great American as reflected in decades of spectacular service." Andy Fisher of the Lugar campaign reacted to the poll saying, ""This poll shows what we have been saying all along - Hoosier voters are rejecting Richard Mourdock's use of outside special interest groups' money to run his all-negative campaign against Dick Lugar. The group that conducted this poll notes in the Howey Report that it was taken as outside money poured in to attack Dick Lugar. Also, the Lugar campaign has gained ground in the 10 days since the poll was taken. As the poll says - most people don't know Richard Mourdock. As we find in our daily calls to Hoosier primary voters - which we have made more than a million -- once they know Richard Mourdock, they won't choose Richard Mourdock." Mourdock spokesman Christopher Conner said the results show "Hoosier Republicans are ready for a change" In the Republican presidential primary, with the nomination virtually a foregone conclusion for Romney, Rick Santorum leads Romney 27-26% among the Republicans surveyed. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich stood at 6% each and 35% were undecided. In the first head-to-head numbers in the Indiana gubernatorial race, U.S. Rep. Mike Pence had a 44-31% lead over former Democratic House speaker John Gregg, with 5% backing Libertarian Rupert Boneham. Gregg's problem is that 71% of the general election voters have not heard of him. Of those who have, his fav/infavs stood at 10/4%. Pence's fav/unfavs in this survey stood at 32/20% with 30% having never heard of him. Among the Republican primary voters, Pence's fav/unfavs stood at 57/5%. In 1996, Lt. Gov. O'Bannon trailed Republican Stephen Goldsmith by a larger margin than Gregg trails Pence. Pence's challenge will be that anemic 10% approval rating for Congress. - Brian A. Howey

Bellwether ResearchWASHINGTON – Our March 26-28 poll shows what everyone knows: Richard Lugar is in a tough battle to win the May 8 Republican primary. He leads Tea Party challenger Richard Mourdock by 7 points, but at 42%, his ballot support is far enough below the 50% mark to be of significant concern. The make-or-break proposition for Senator Lugar is going to be the composition of the primary electorate.The fact that Indiana has an open primary makes this narrative different from Delaware, where in 2010 U.S. Sen. Mike Castle lost to Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell in a closed Republican primary, or in Utah, where U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett’s fate was decided by fewer than 4,000 GOP convention delegates.The Republican Senate candidates are tied among self-identified Republicans and among primary faithful – those who voted in both the May 2008 and 2010 Republican primaries. However, among the 28% of the sample who identified as independent or as leaning Republican, Richard Lugar has a 26 point advantage (52%-26%).We were cautious in this survey and did not ask self-identified Democrats the primary intention screen and thus included none in this sample. However, it is reasonable to believe that with nothing going on for them, some Democrats will vote in the Republican primary. In Wisconsin this week, 11% of GOP primary voters were Democrats and 30% independents; Illinois had 6% who identified as Democrats and 26% as independents, and in Ohio, 5% were Democrats and 26% independents.Make no mistake though, our poll shows that Indiana Republican primary voters are a conservative bunch. Compared with other states that have held Republican primaries this year, Indiana is more conservative than any other non-Southern state with 36% saying they are “very conservative.” And, outside of Iowa, Indiana has more evangelical Christians than any other non-Southern state.As to which candidate “shares my values,” Lugar leads Mourdock by 8 points and has a 10-point advantage on “will get things done.” Mourdock is seen as running the more negative campaign by a nine-point margin. We will track these attributes again on our pre-primary poll.The fact that Richard Mourdock is not well known (40% have no opinion of him and 17% have never heard of him) can play out two ways. One is that he has room to grow as voters get to know him and that his poll numbers will get better as he becomes better known. The other scenario is that Mourdock’s lack of identity is useful in serving as the “anti-Lugar” in that he can generically represent change or people can project onto him ideal qualities. The April 11 debate is an opportunity for Mourdock to show himself as more than the “anti-Lugar” candidate and voters can judge him in a side-by-side comparison with the incumbent.Another factor to consider is how active a role popular Gov. Mitch Daniels will yet play in the primary. He has endorsed Senator Lugar, but there has been no TV ad. Usually endorsements are not that interesting; however, the governor is a rock star among Republicans.General Election SurveyWith a 63% job approval rating among all voters, Mitch Daniels is among the most popular governors in the country (along with New Mexico’s Susana Martinez and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo). The majority (53%) of all voters think the state is heading in the right direction, compared with 26% who think the country is. Just 39% approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President, which is worse than in private polling we conducted last summer. Independents give Obama a 41% approval rating, compared with 62% for Governor Daniels.If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, he would lead the president by nine points (49%-40%) among Hoosier voters, whereas it’s a closer race with Santorum (46%-41%). Independent men lean toward Romney 46%-42%, but independent women back Obama 51%-34%.In the gubernatorial race, Democratic candidate John Gregg and his moustache have yet to make an imprint on voters: 71% have never heard of him, which is little changed from where he was a year ago. Mike Pence is better known and leads Gregg by a 44%-31% margin. This early, our poll simply lays the marker for this race as the candidates begin to campaign in earnest following the May primary. However, Pence starts out with a solid advantage.In the U.S. Senate general election contest, former Democratic congressman Joe Donnelly also begins as a relative unknown: 53% have never heard of him and another 24% have no opinion. He trails Richard Lugar by a 29%-50% margin (perennial Libertarian candidate Andy Horning nets 7%). Lugar wins independent voters by a 20-point margin and soundly beats Donnelly in Indianapolis, an area Democrats must carry. Donnelly only performs well in the northwest quadrant of the state which includes Lake, St. Joseph and Porter counties.Against Richard Mourdock, however, Donnelly ties with 35% of the vote (7% for Horning). Donnelly has a 20-point advantage in Indianapolis and increases his margin in northern Indiana substantially. Indiana Democratic insiders know these numbers, of course, and that is why they will do everything in their power to help ensure Richard Mourdock comes out of the GOP primary. The general electability argument, however, will not help Richard Lugar in the primary. It’s been working for Romney, but in general, Republican primary voters aren’t responsive to this message.At the time we were in the field (March 26-28) with our Republican primary poll, the narrative was beginning to shift from Santorum-Romney to Romney as nominee. It’s not surprising that during this consolidation period, more than one-third of primary voters said they were unsure whom they plan to support for president in Indiana’s May primary contest. Santorum supporters slightly edge Romney supporters (27%-26%) and more might be unsure if their guy would still be alive and kicking by the time May 8 rolls around. The Gingrich (6%) and Paul (6%) support has already dropped. What is most interesting is that Romney is the candidate of choice for Indianapolis and its suburbs, while Santorum holds his own in the rest of the state. All the traditional constituency patterns are in place: Santorum wins evangelicals (but not overwhelmingly) and Romney wins college grads while Santorum leads among the less educated.More interesting is how an active presidential contest would play in the U.S. Senate primary. Romney supporters line up with Lugar, while Santorum’s are in sync with Mourdock. NBC’s Chuck Todd said a competitive GOP presidential primary would be a nightmare for Senator Lugar, but I disagree. The Santorum/Mourdock voters are going to turn out anyway – because they are the base and because the NRA, FreedomWorks, and Club for Growth will make sure of it. What benefits Lugar is for the Romney micro-targeting and turn-out machine to be in full force. If Romney is cruising, they may take a less active role in turning out their supporters and these people are more likely to stay home if they think Romney has the nomination wrapped up.Matthews is president and CEO of Bellwether Research based in Washington.