The Romney-Ryan ticket has gotten a major boost in the past few weeks. Battleground Tracking Poll: Mitt leads

DELRAY BEACH, Fla. — Mitt Romney has taken a narrow national lead, tightened the gender gap and expanded his edge over President Barack Obama on who would best grow the economy.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from Sunday through Thursday of last week — shows Romney ahead of Obama by 2 percentage points, 49 to 47 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in the GOP nominee’s direction from a week ago but is still within the margin of error. Obama led 49 percent to 48 percent the week before.


Romney has not led in the poll since the beginning of May.

Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 percent to 48 percent.

On the generic congressional ballot, Republicans now tie Democrats, 46 percent to 46 percent, after trailing slightly over the past six weeks.

Two weeks from Election Day, the GOP nominee also continues to maintain a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 80 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 7 points, 52 percent to 45 percent.

Women propelled Romney’s move into first place in the poll — a majority of which was conducted before the Hofstra debate. Obama’s 11-point advantage a week ago among the crucially important group dwindled to 6 points. The Democratic incumbent still leads 51 to 45 percent with women, but Romney leads by 10 points among men.

Romney also doubled the size of his advantage over Obama on which candidate would better handle the economy. This week, 51 percent of respondents picked Romney and 45 percent chose Obama, compared to 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama a week ago. The former Massachusetts governor also leads by 4 points, 50 to 46 percent, on who would create more jobs.

A majority, 53 percent, disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, compared to 45 percent who approve. That 8-point spread was only 3 points a week ago.

Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster who helped conduct the poll, sees the drop in Obama’s support among women and who can best handle the economy as connected. Obama now has only a 4-point advantage among women on who is better for the economy, even though respondents give the president significantly higher marks on a host of other questions, such as who shares their values and who is fighting hardest for the middle class.

Romney, meanwhile, is again underwater with women on likability: Forty0five percent view him favorably, and 50 percent view him unfavorably.

“Women are holding back because of the economy,” Lake said Sunday. “Obama has created doubt [about Romney]: Does this guy understand me and my life? But [Obama has] to fill out the contrast: They have to tell women voters what they’re going to do.”

A closing of the gender gap facilitated Republican gains in the 2010 midterms. Women broke to the GOP in the home stretch, Lake said, because Democrats did not offer a clear alternative for where they wanted to take the country. Exit polls showed Democrats won women by just 1 percentage point two years ago.

“We really can’t repeat that mistake in 2012,” Lake warned.

Lake downplayed the significance of national numbers this close to the election. She noted that Obama is stronger in swing states like Ohio than the national polls because Romney has run up his margin in the South. The Republican is now winning the region with 60 percent in the POLITICO poll. Obama is up with 55 percent in the Midwest and 54 percent in the West.

“You’re going to see, if this trend continues for a while, probably the national polls differing from the battleground state polls,” she said. “That raises the interesting question: could we see a situation with the popular vote going one way and the electoral vote going another?”

The president, meanwhile, improved his standing on foreign policy — the focus of Monday’s third and final presidential debate in Boca Raton, Fla. Obama, widely perceived to have the upper hand in the back and forth over Libya at Tuesday’s debate in New York, now leads Romney by 9 percentage points on who will better handle foreign policy, 51 to 42 percent. The week before, Obama only led by 4 points, 49 to 45 percent.

Romney spent the weekend here boning up on foreign policy, as Obama retreated to Camp David.

The Battleground tracking poll will be performed each week and the results released each Monday through Election Day.

Obama actually took a 1-point lead in the most recent poll among independents, 44 to 43 percent, a group Romney has led with all year. Pollsters said this number is more volatile because it’s a relatively small sample, which can lead to a higher margin of error, but the president also saw his personal favorability rise with these swing voters.

Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, believes Obama has slipped on the economy because the president emphasized good news too much in the first two debates.

“When he started talking about the economy and went off on his tangent of all the great things he’s done, that causes a disconnect with the voters,” Goeas said.

Goeas said it is imperative Romney focus as much as possible on the economy in the final debate because that’s his strong suit and more than two-thirds of voters name pocketbook issues as their top concern.

Obama remains the front-runner in the eyes of most voters. Regardless of who they are supporting, 51 percent said they think Obama is going to win the election and 37 percent said Romney.

Romney’s likability evened out after improving in the wake of the first debate. Fifty percent view him favorably, compared to 45 percent who view him unfavorably.

Obama’s overall job approval stands at 49 percent, with 48 percent disapproving. The president’s personal favorability is 52 percent, with 45 percent viewing him unfavorably. Just one-third strongly approve of the job Obama’s doing, compared to 44 percent who strongly disapprove.

“They are walking away from the last two weeks with Mitt basically at a comparable level of likability to Obama,” Goeas said.

Despite some positive economic news, including the unemployment rate dropping to 7.8 percent in September, the percentage who say that the country has gotten off on the wrong track increased for the first time since the summer. It popped from 53 percent to 57 percent last week.

While 49 percent feel strongly that the country is on the wrong track, only 22 percent feel strongly that it’s moving the right direction.

Romney has opened up advantages over Obama on two character questions.

Obama has consistently been seen as the stronger leader. In September, Obama led Romney by 7 points on that question. But Romney now leads the president by 1 point, 47 to 46 percent.

The Democrat maintains the edge on who shares your values, leading Romney by 48 to 46 percent, but it’s closer than the week before. Among women though, Obama’s lead on the question is still 11 percent.

On who stands up more for the middle class, Obama leads by 14 points, 55 percent to 41 percent.

Romney widened his lead to 15 points on which candidate would better handle the federal budget and spending, up from 12 points a week ago.

Obama is up 8 points on which candidate is better for Medicare. Among seniors, though, Romney leads by 9 points, 51 to 42 percent, on this question. Romney leads Obama by 18 points, 57 to 39 percent, among voters 65 and older.

POLITICO considers the 10 competitive battlegrounds to be Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters from Oct. 14 to Oct. 18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.