Earlier, I wrote about how Europe may have arrived in a period where its cities will be in decline because of economic and demographic developments. The two major Dutch cities Amsterdam and Rotterdam have policies to attract people to live and work in the cities in order to maintain momentum, or in the case of Rotterdam: to win the battle with the suburbs. This is all well as long as there is population growth, i.e. as long as there are enough people to keep pressure on the housing market. This pressure is now disappearing. The direct cause of this is the credit freeze that affects mortgages and the house prices. In the long run, demographic change will mean that there are fewer people available to live in cities or suburbs or in the countryside. So far, this looming trend was countered by the fact that the average number of people living together in one house has gone down considerably since World War 2. But that trend will also reach its end. It is simply impossible to have <1 person per house! The need for office space is also in decline but the number of offices being build in e.g. Rotterdam still exceeds demand considerably (and by that I mean: 30% or more).

So, we should brace ourselves for an urban economy that is no longer based on expansion. Now, the question is whether this is a bad thing. The Economist run an interesting debate where it was argued that bigger cities are not necessarily better cities. As exemplified elsewhere in the world, many cities are enormous conurbations of urban sprawl that still grow at enormous rates. With that (almost unmanageable) growth comes a host of problems: air, water and soil pollution, long travel distances and associated traffic and grid locks, bad sanitation and general lack of quality of life. There is an argument that growing cities are as unstoppable as declining cities, but in both cases there is a necessity for managing the trend. However, the core question is whether a small city is preferable over a larger city. Large cities still hold many advantages for people who do not yet live in a city. But yes, they come at a price. So here is the main question for Dutch urban planners: should you focus on urban expansion or focus on managing an endurable scale? Your call.