Summer officially arrives in Ottawa this week, bringing with it the usual round of cabinet shuffle speculation.

One thing always follows close on the other. As soon as political junkies start to envision a prolonged stretch of political inactivity around Parliament Hill, they begin to imagine ways to fill the vacuum.

But this summer, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might want to resist the impulse to liven things up with a shuffle of his team. There are better ways to fill the time between now and the fall — and at least a couple of good reasons to steer clear of a big shakeup this summer.

So let’s start with what Trudeau could be doing instead. If the PM does happen to be in the mood to hand out new jobs to people, he has a whole raft of far more urgent vacancies to fill. Those vacancies have been the subject of much commentary in recent weeks in the wake of the failed bid to appoint a new official languages commissioner — which served to shine a spotlight on other watchdog jobs that need to be filled, from the ethics czar to the lobbying commissioner to the chief electoral officer.

Governor-General David Johnston’s extended term expires in September. Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Beverley McLachlin has announced she’ll be gone by the end of the year.

In short, Trudeau’s government has a lot of hiring and appointing to do this summer, without having to fuss about putting new ministers in new jobs.

Besides, it was only six months ago that Trudeau unveiled a not-insignificant shakeup of cabinet posts — a reaction to Donald Trump’s unexpected arrival in the White House. We’re only now starting to see the real results of that shuffle — Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland’s big policy speech this month and an initial report on cyberhacking and elections last week from the new Democratic Institutions Minister, Karina Gould.

Trump’s unpredictable administration may be another good argument for keeping the current team in place. Instability south of the border creates a need for stability here in Canada, especially in ministries being buffeted directly by shifting Canada-U.S. relations: trade, finance and defence.

Cabinet aspirations are a good way to keep caucuses disciplined — and maybe the best way to keep Liberals from indulging their fondness for leaking to the media. Cabinet aspirations are a good way to keep caucuses disciplined — and maybe the best way to keep Liberals from indulging their fondness for leaking to the media.

Yes, defence too. Rumours of Harjit Sajjan’s departure from DND have been circulating since the dustup over whether he exaggerated his accomplishments in Afghanistan. I was never persuaded that this was a big enough deal to warrant a demotion and Sajjan’s history as a soldier — the real, unexaggerated one — is still an asset in dealing with a U.S. administration that respects battle-hardened politicians.

One of the Trudeau government’s unquestioned successes over 2017 has been his full-court lobbying effort in the States, with ministers fanning out across the country to impress upon the Trump government the depth and value of the Canada-U.S. relationship. What kind of signal would it send to the States if all those ministers suddenly disappeared or changed jobs?

Beyond summer boredom, one common argument for a mid-term cabinet shuffle has been the need for a course correction in the Trudeau government. It’s coming up on two years this fall since the first cabinet was sworn into office. A year from now, everyone will be focused on the looming 2019 election.

There’s some merit to that argument, but Trudeau might be well advised to hold off on marking the mid-term until later this year — closer to the real, second anniversary of the swearing in.

By November, the New Democrats will have their new leader and the Liberals will have a better idea of what they will be facing by way of competition in 2019.

Moreover, while cabinet shuffles make stars out of some people, they also can crush the dreams of many others. Inside that large Liberal caucus right now, dozens of MPs are probably holding on to the hope that they’ll make it to cabinet in the latter half of the mandate. Cabinet aspirations are a good way to keep caucuses disciplined — and maybe the best way to keep Liberals from indulging their fondness for leaking to the media.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one.

Q: What do reporters call Liberals who don’t make it into cabinet?

A: Anonymous sources.

So Trudeau may want to be careful about throwing a bucket of ice water over those backbenchers’ dreams of cabinet too soon. If the prime minister wants to avoid creating a disgruntled, leaky faction inside the caucus, he might hold off on a shuffle as long as possible — at least until later in 2017.

It may be that Trudeau can’t resist the swirl of speculation about a looming cabinet shuffle. Rumours have a way of becoming reality when things get slow in federal politics.

But right now, the reasons to avoid a summer cabinet shuffle are stronger than any arguments in favour of one. And boredom isn’t really a good argument.

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