Outlook: ESPN’s team was arguably the country’s best in 2018-19, fueled by an embarrassing level of talent featuring one of the best college players in recent memory. Despite the wealth of riches, Coach K failed to reach the Final Four, instead falling to Michigan State after barely squeaking by UCF in the Round of 32 and Virginia Tech in the Sweet Sixteen. Coach K has fully embraced the one-and-done era, keeping pace with John Calipari over at Kentucky. Since K’s “unofficial” start of exploiting the one-and-done talent pool in 2013-14 (Jabari Parker’s year), Duke has had the #1 or #2 recruiting class in each of the past six seasons. In that time, Duke has one National Title (and no other Final Four appearances) and a grand total of zero regular season ACC titles. On paper, the Devils are the ACC’s best team year-in and year-out, but in practice has yet to prove that consistently.

Let me be clear: Coach K is one of the best coaches of all time in any sport. Having said that, it’s obvious his X’s and O’s game isn’t what it used to be. Whether this is due to old age, egos of high-level recruits, or simply not having the time to properly develop guys in just a few short months, K’s offensive strategy has gone from actually running offense to “roll the balls out and play”. Last year’s squad was K’s fastest since 2008, which made sense given the ridiculous talent of Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. Those two scorched opposing teams on the run, and when Duke didn’t score on the first shot it often secured the rebound and stuffed the ball down the hoop. This season’s team will have a whole new look from a personnel perspective, but this style likely isn’t changing, especially since K failed to address 2018-19’s shooting issues.

Tre Jones is the most significant holdover from last year’s squad, a quintessential point guard that earned a spot on the Honorable Mention All-ACC, ACC All-Defense, and ACC All-Freshman squad. Jones was lauded by pundits (particularly Jay Bilas) last season, often being called the Devils’ most important player. This sentiment was of course total B.S., but Jones was a key piece to a team that desperately needed his leadership and defensive prowess. In 2019-20, Jones will be Duke’s undisputed floor leader and will likely see close to 40 minutes per game. He’s the perfect table setter and rarely turns the ball over, but his poor shooting must improve for Duke to capture a National Championship. Jones shot just 26.2% from downtown last season (21.7% in ACC play), and teams literally started turning their backs on him when he was on the perimeter, daring him to shoot from the outside. Even a moderate improvement to his shot this year will do wonders for Duke’s offense and title chances.

Shooting was Duke’s Achilles heel last season and likely will be again in 2019-20. Jack White and Alex O’Connell return as three-point shooting specialists, but none of K’s incoming recruits (save perhaps Matthew Hurt) are known for their outside shot. White was the perfect role player the first half of last season, knocking down 38.6% of his threes, rebounding like a maniac, and hustling his ass off, but something strange happened on January 14th against Syracuse. White got the yips and went 0/10 against the ‘Cuse zone and proceeded to miss his next 16 attempts over the course of several games. O’Connell has been one of the biggest casualties of K’s bloodthirsty conquest for one-and-done talent. He’s a knockdown shooter that just hasn’t been given a consistent opportunity to shine. Last season, O’Connell shot 37.5% from behind the arc and is a career 41.6% thee-point shooter. In 2019-20, both White and O’Connell should maintain key roles in Duke’s rotation and may even start a few games as the incoming freshmen develop.

Coach K brings in four star-studded freshmen to replenish the talent coffers left barren by the departures of Zion, RJ, and Cam Reddish. K was strategic in his recruiting and landed a player to fill each traditional position alongside Jones at the point. Two McDonald’s All-Americans, Vernon Carey, Jr. and Matthew Hurt, will man the center and power forward spots on day one. Carey is the highest ranked of K’s four recruits and brings with him to Durham a versatile skill set for his size. At 6’10”, Carey can shoot from the outside and put the ball on the floor, and his immense size makes him a sure bet to be an impactful addition on the glass and in the paint. Not many 6’10” guys can do what Carey can do on the floor: