Article content continued

The combined impact of the trade measures would cause U.S. car sales to fall and 366,900 American jobs to be lost, with the vast majority of the damage — about 90 per cent — caused by the auto tariffs.

“If we think the tariffs on steel and aluminum were bad, this would be way bigger,” said Dziczek. “Even if the side letters (exempting) Canada, Mexico and South Korea hold, we still find enormous economic harm from the (Section) 232 auto tariffs.”

Though the specific impact on Canada is not measured, the cost hikes in the U.S. would inevitably spill over the border to some degree, Dziczek added.

“On imported vehicles you won’t face higher costs obviously,” she said. “That’ll just be in the U.S. But to the extent American-made cars rely on imported parts, they will be more costly and that will raise their costs in Canada, too.”

The U.S. Department of Commerce delivered a report to the president Sunday on whether imports of autos pose a threat to national security. Trump now has 90 days to act on its recommendations, though those may be kept confidential, analysts say. Trump has floated the idea of potential tariffs of 25 per cent on imported autos and 10 per cent on parts.