Indiana, represented by Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly, has become the epicenter of the fight for the Senate’s long-term future. | Darron Cummings/AP Photo Elections Dem Senate hopes shift from winning majority to limiting losses Republicans could lock up a multi-cycle Senate majority by winning Indiana and other states like it this fall.

INDIANAPOLIS — Democratic hopes of winning the Senate have faded in the final weeks of the 2018 election, with the party now needing to win every one of more than a half-dozen competitive races to capture control of the chamber.

It’s a far cry from a month ago, when Democrats saw a path to the majority opening wider as several battleground races trended in their direction. But in recent weeks, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp’s (D-N.D.) seat has slipped away and looks likely to be a Republican pickup, and Democrats have not opened advantages in any of the three GOP-held seats where they’re on offense, instead trailing in public polling in Nevada and Tennessee.


Democrats would have to turn around both of those races, carry Arizona, and then sweep largely conservative battleground races featuring incumbent Democrats — Missouri, Florida, Indiana, Montana and West Virginia — to win the majority, a prospect several party strategists referred to as picking up an “inside straight” — a low-odds poker hand.

“I am not without hope in terms of these races, but I think we can acknowledge that it's a difficult map and that we've got to run the table,” said Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA, a major Democratic super PAC.

With the majority looking improbable, party strategists have started to cast their eyes further ahead, looking at the 2018 Senate battlefield as a margin game. Just how big the Republican majority will be — and just how many red-state Democrats can win reelection in two weeks — could decide whether the GOP will cement Senate control for years or whether Democrats have the opportunity to wrest back the majority in 2020, when a more favorable array of states have Senate elections.

“If we don't win back the majority, we should look at this as a four-year cycle and not a two-year cycle, positioning ourselves to win back the majority,” said Rodell Mollineau, a veteran Democratic strategist. “Republicans have a lot of seats up and will have a lot to answer to come 2020.”

Morning Score newsletter Your guide to the permanent campaign — weekday mornings, in your inbox. Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Indiana has become the epicenter of the fight for the Senate’s long-term future. Republicans have always viewed the race as a top pickup opportunity, but Sen. Joe Donnelly’s moderate brand, strong fundraising and willingness to work with President Donald Trump gave the Democrat an edge in the race heading into the fall.

During a sparsely attended morning rally in a hotel ballroom here last weekend, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel told Indiana Republicans they could “make a difference in expanding our majority.”

But minutes later, Vice President Mike Pence delivered a stern warning to his former constituents — one perhaps more suited to driving anti-Donnelly turnout: Democrats still have their sights set on a Senate majority, Pence said, and Hoosiers had the “deciding vote” on their hands.

“Literally, there's no path to a Senate where Chuck Schumer is in charge without Joe Donnelly in the United States Senate,” Pence said, the mention of the two Democrats drawing boos from the small crowd.

Donnelly has carefully toed the line in trying to gin up enthusiasm with his base while ensuring he doesn’t lose support from Republicans. He rallied earlier this month with Vice President Joe Biden in a strong Democratic corner of the state, and has run relentlessly on health care, even boasting during a debate about being the “deciding vote” to protect the Affordable Care Act. But last week, he released back-to-back ads in which he supported Trump’s border wall and decried the “radical left" and the “liberal left.”

Those ads are competing with another featuring Pence’s direct-to-camera appeal to vote out Donnelly, arguing the Democrat voted no when it counted on tax cuts, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and health care. Donnelly scoffs at that, saying the Pence ad came because Republicans are “struggling.”

“He knows that I've been with the president 62 percent of the time, 77 percent on judges,” Donnelly told reporters after a meeting with women who knocked on doors for his campaign a week ago. “When the president is right, I'm with him, and when he's not, it's my job to tell him here's a better idea.”

Kip Tew, a former chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party, said Donnelly’s balanced approach has appealed to a set of Trump voters that are “very gettable.”

“That cross-section is really looking for somebody who's not full of crap, and I think he's done a good job of being the kind of senator who's not trying to be somebody else,” Tew said.

The proposition has gotten more difficult for Donnelly and other Democratic incumbents following the confirmation of Kavanaugh, whom Donnelly opposed. Republicans say polling in Indiana and in other battleground Senate races has moved in their favor in recent weeks, fueled mostly by increased enthusiasm from GOP voters and a boost in Trump’s approval rating.

Republican challenger Mike Braun told a group of close friends and supporters in his hometown of Jasper last week that he’d seen recent polling that put him ahead outside the margin of error, and in an interview, Braun said Kavanaugh’s confirmation was behind the boost. But he also said the race is closer than it should be for a state Trump won by double digits.

"Why is it as close as it is when [Trump] won by 19? Clearly, the other side has dominated on resources,” Braun said, complaining that Republicans had been outspent by “3-, 4-, 5-to-1” margins by Democratic outside groups early in the race. “We've been behind the 8-ball, and now, it's more on parity, and so the message is getting out.”

Donnelly pulled in $3.1 million during the third quarter, but Braun slightly outraised him, raising $3.2 million while loaning his campaign an additional $2.3 million from his personal fortune. Donnelly still ended the quarter with a clear cash-on-hand advantage.

Republicans have been narrowly outspent on the airwaves: Democrats have spent $27 million compared to $24 million for Republicans, according to data from Advertising Analytics. But Republicans have $9 million booked through Election Day in the state, slightly outpacing the $7 million Democrats have planned.

Health care has become a flashpoint in the race: Braun has faced criticism over the sky-high deductibles in his company’s health plans, even as he boasts about keeping premiums stable for his employees.

“[Democrats] were embarrassed when they found out I covered pre-existing conditions with no premium increase in eight to 10 years,” Braun said.

Donnelly is also pointing to Braun’s support for a Trump administration-backed lawsuit and legislation repealing the Affordable Care Act as the most potent issue on the agenda this fall.

“He keeps saying he's for pre-existing conditions, but he's been for every piece of legislation that would take it away,” Donnelly said. “People understand that, people realize that, and we want to make sure everybody gets to hear that."