Theresa May’s Brexit speech is billed as a moment of clarity and an end to “cake and eat it” platitudes. But the words she chooses cannot hide several potential sticking points:

Transition

Though preferring the phrase “implementation phase” to “transitional deal”, the government has accepted the need for British business to have some warning of changed trading arrangements in Europe.

The rub is that the EU has insisted Britain remains under the jurisdiction of the European court of justice during any such interim arrangement, directly threatening one of May’s other stated objectives.

Watch to see whether she talks about a phased withdrawal from the ECJ to see if this point has sunk in, or whether the dream of orderly transition is merely a temporary sop to jittery business leaders.



Single market

Most expect May to acknowledge that leaving the EU automatically means leaving the single market. But losing preferential access to the single market is another thing entirely. Ideally the government would negotiate replacement trade arrangements, but European leaders wish to limit these to deter others from leaving the EU.

Watch to see whether May promises some other form of barrier-free access for UK exporters, or simply states it as an objective. The latter would suggest we may be heading for much more limited World Trade Organisation tariffs instead.



Citizens’ rights

The government initially favoured an upfront deal to guarantee the rights of existing EU citizens in exchange for similar “grandfathering” of Brits on the continent. But the difficulty of amending European treaties in this way has meant existing immigrants are still very much pawns in the upcoming negotiations.

This is a source of much anguish on both sides of the Channel, and May could take the heat out of proceedings if she were to hint at a unilateral guarantee of residency rights. An absence of this in the speech would suggest tensions will only grow as it becomes clear we are effectively holding EU citizens to ransom.



Money

Tensions have grown in recent days as the chancellor and the governor of the Bank of England have warned that a disorderly Brexit will hurt the EU, both by increasing financial instability and encouraging Britain to undercut tax rates. Previously, London had struck a more conciliatory tone over money, hinting that it would continue to make payments into the EU budget in return for market access.

There was only limited pushback when Brussels hinted at a huge divorce settlement to pay for outstanding liabilities. If May continues to take the more parsimonious tone of late, it suggests a happy ending is unlikely.



Bankers

Fresh pessimism over EU trade prospects has swept the City of London this month, as evidenced by sharp falls in the value of the pound. When it comes to their own access arrangements, bankers are particularly gloomy about any continuation of “passporting” arrangements for financial services.

Many are now pushing for an improvement on “equivalence” rules instead, through mutual recognition of financial regulation. Whether May encourages this thinking will say much about how worried she is about bankers leaving the City, or whether they are now politically acceptable collateral damage.