Doug Ford would jolt the Progressive Conservative leadership race if he jumped in, a new poll suggests.

But the Forum Research survey released Monday shows MPP Christine Elliott remains the frontrunner to succeed Tim Hudak as the provincial Conservatives’ permanent leader.

When Forum asked Ontarians who they thought would win the May 9 leadership contest, the Whitby-Oshawa MPP was top of mind and the head of the pack.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said it appears “Christine Elliott is cruising for a coronation, but Doug Ford may prove to be a bump on the road to that event.”

“He has partisans in the all-important, vote-rich 905 and that’s where the PCs need to win votes to take power,” Bozinoff said of Ford, a one-term city councillor who finished a strong second to John Tory in last week’s Toronto mayoral race.

Bemoaning a lacklustre field, the Etobicoke native is considering whether to run.

Using interactive voice response phone calls, Forum polled 1,104 Ontarians on Friday and Saturday with results considered accurate to within three percentage points 19 times out of 20.

About a quarter — 26 per cent — said they expect Elliott to win the Conservative leadership compared to 18 per cent who think Ford would take it should he decide to run.

MPP Lisa MacLeod (Nepean-Carleton) was at 7 per cent while the other three declared candidates MPPs Vic Fedeli (Nipissing) and Monte McNaughton (Lambton-Kent-Middlesex) and MP Patrick Brown (Barrie) were each at 5 per cent.

More than one-third — 35 per cent — said they didn’t know who would win

Forum also polled to see how each of the six Conservatives would fare against the Liberals, New Democrats, and Greens.

Elliott was chosen by 32 per cent compared to 41 per cent for the governing Liberals, who are led by Premier Kathleen Wynne, 22 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s NDP, and 4 per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Greens.

Ford was at 27 per cent to 42 per cent for the Liberals, 22 per cent for the NDP and 8 per cent for the Greens.

MacLeod was at 28 per cent against 44 per cent for the Liberals, 21 per cent for the NDP, and 5 per cent for the Greens.

Fedeli was also at 28 per cent to 43 per cent for the Liberals, 22 per cent for the NDP, and 6 per cent for the Greens.

Similarly, McNaughton was at 28 per cent to 43 per cent for the Liberals, 23 per cent for the NDP, and 4 per cent for the Greens.

Brown was at 26 per cent to 45 per cent for the Liberals, 21 per cent for the NDP, and 6 per cent for the Greens.

Ironically, the Tories did best in the poll when no candidate was named. Asked what party they preferred without a leader being named, 35 per cent of respondents picked the Conservatives compared with 40 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for the NDP, and 4 per cent for the Greens.

With the New Democrats’ Horwath facing a leadership review later this month, Forum also tested third-place Toronto mayoral candidate Olivia Chow as a potential NDP hopeful.

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The poll indicates that Chow — a former MP and city councillor who has not ruled out a provincial run down the road — would give the NDP a bounce.

With her at the helm, the NDP was at 28 per cent, the Tories at 29 per cent, the Liberals at 33 per cent, and the Greens at 5 per cent.

That would put the three major parties in a statistical dead heat within the survey’s margin of error.