Election 2018: This reliably Republican Ohio district may tell us early if there's a Democratic wave

COLUMBUS - Can Democrats flip reliably Republican districts to retake the U.S. House?

One of their first tests will come in central Ohio this August.

Ohio's 12th congressional seat – vacated by U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi who resigned Monday to lead a prominent business lobbying group – is filled with suburban and rural voters who voted for President Donald Trump but less enthusiastically than in other parts of the state.

For Democrats to win the 24 seats needed to gain control of the U.S. House, they can't rely solely on districts where Democrat Hillary Clinton won.

Ohio's race is one of three special elections nationwide before November that could foretell whether the country is on the verge of a massive blue wave or, like in 2016, another disappointment for Democrats.

But winning Ohio's 12th district won't be easy for Democrats. Tiberi held the central Ohio seat for 17 years and Gov. John Kasich represented Ohio's 12th district for 18 years before that. Trump won the district by 11 percentage points.

The district's lines – which include Delaware, Licking, and Morrow counties with portions of Franklin, Marion, Muskingum and Richland counties – were redrawn in 2012 to all but guarantee a Republican victory. (The district that Tiberi and Kasich served for years included a more compact and more competitive group of counties just northeast of Columbus.)

“Ohio’s 12th district was carried by Republicans from the top of the ticket down by double-digit margins in 2016 and I am confident its long record of electing conservative leaders will continue in 2018,” said U.S. Rep. Steve Stivers, an Ohioan who leads the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Why Ohio matters

Democrats are banking on Trump's low approval nationwide – 39.3 percent like the job he's doing, according to a Real Clear Politics average – and enthusiasm from voters to take control of the U.S. House.

But marches and rallies haven't translated into victories for the Democrats. In seven special elections last year, Democrats flipped just one seat: Democrat Doug Jones' win over GOP's Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate race. (One election replaced a Democrat with another Democrat and five others stayed in the GOP column.)

The fight in Georgia over U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price's former seat was the most expensive House race in history, but Democrat Jon Ossoff still lost by 3.5 percentage points.

"I don’t believe in moral victories," U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, a Youngstown area Democrat, wrote on Medium after the Georgia loss. "The only measure of success in political campaigns is victory. I don’t believe everyone should get a trophy."

Ohio's race is one of three special elections on the calendar before the general election in November. Democrats in D.C. are eyeing Ohio and Pennsylvania as possible pickups.

- In March, Pennsylvania voters will pick a replacement for Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy, who resigned after reportedly asked his mistress to obtain an abortion during a pregnancy scare.

- Then, Arizona will vote in April to replace Republican U.S. Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned after asking staff to serve as surrogates for Franks and his wife because they struggled with infertility.

Why are Democrats eyeing Ohio's 12th congressional district?

"It’s also full of Republican voters who might be kind of skeptical of the president," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Combined with polls showing Democrats could have a good year, Ohio's race becomes "an interesting signpost on the road to the midterm."

Who is running?

National forces can only get you so far. This race also depends on the quality of candidates picked. Gov. John Kasich set the primary for the Ohio 12th district on May 8, the same day voters choose their nominees for governor, U.S. Senate and other local races.

On the Republican side, John Adams, of Columbus; state Sen. Kevin Bacon, R-Minerva Park; state Sen. Troy Balderson, R-Zanesville; accountant and attorney Lawrence Cohen of New Albany; U.S. Marine Corps veteran Brandon Grisez of Worthington; U.S. Army veteran and real estate investor Jon Halverstadt of Worthington; economist and U.S. Air Force veteran Tim Kane, of Dublin; Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan architect Pat Manley of Columbus; and Delaware County Prosecutor Carol O'Brien are running.

On the Democratic side, Ed Albertson of Granville; Crystal Lett, of Columbus; Jackie Patton, of Columbus; John Peters of Newark; John Russell of Galena; former Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott and Doug Wilson of Mansfield are running. Former Ohio House Majority Whip Jay Goyal, D-Mansfield, decided to forgo a run.

Scott upset some local Democrats when he challenged their chosen candidate for Columbus mayor: Andrew Ginther, who ultimately won the job. Scott then lost the Democratic primary for sheriff to a retired Columbus police lieutenant.

The infighting has some Democrats in the area preferring Goyal. But Scott told the Enquirer that voters are tired of all the fighting in Columbus and Washington D.C.

"We need to focus back on what Democrats are supposed to be focused on. That’s jobs," Scott said. "Democrats got off focus with their message. I think Donald Trump took advantage of that."

The field of candidates is far from set.

Another potential challenge in this special election? Kasich scheduled it for Aug. 7. Many Ohioans don't associate August with elections. They might be on vacation. Low voter turnout is expected, which will hurt whichever party is less excited about the election.

Republicans aren't too worried.

"The 12th district is considered a safe district for Republicans," said O'Brien, one of several GOP candidates. "I don’t think it’s going to change."