Price estimate:

The price estimate is a 6 month indicator based on a weighted average of the the relative prices.

Three scenarios are used to determine the weight price:

Price correction is a scenario calculated with the current relative price ratio to the average the past 90 and 200 days. As the relative price is above the historical averages, this is seen as a potential downside factor to the current price. This is weighted at overall at 40%. Moderate Growth takes the average growth the past 400 days and adds it to the current price. As this is a long term trend, this is given the most weight at 45%. Bull Run takes the average prior bull run relative price ratios and divides it by the current relative price ratio to gauge the long term potential upside. This is given a small weight 15%.

These scenarios are added to give the weighted price. If the weight price is above the current price, this is seen as a buy signal as the price is undervalued.

I derived information for this post and analysis from Trace Mayer (@TraceMayer) and his podcast: http://www.bitcoin.kn/2017/10/fake-news-27000-bitcoin/

Trace is a well known bitcoin entrepreneur, podcast host and in his own words ‘the Babe Ruth of Bitcoin Shills’. I’ve been following him for a while and recognize him as one of the best people to listen to for up to date and objective views of bitcoin.

Trace’s website: www.bitcoin.kn

Trace’s iTunes podcast: https://goo.gl/TcqDB5