Incoming changes to the way B.C. auto insurance premiums are calculated mean drivers in the Lower Mainland are more likely to see bigger rate hikes than those elsewhere in the province thanks to a higher risk of crash in bigger cities and outdated ICBC maps, documents show.

Over 10 years, people in most parts of Metro Vancouver will end up paying almost 11 per cent more, while people in other cities such as Kelowna or Prince George will see the same double-digit decreases as their rural neighbours.

Insurance Corporation of British Colubmia President Nicolas Jiminez said the public auto insurer is focused on other big changes to make high-risk drivers pay for their cost to the system – and what territory ICBC considers drivers to be in has a smaller impact than the number of crashes they get into.

“There are many factors, and territory is only one of them. It’s not that big. The biggest is crashes,” he said.

“Is there an opportunity to do more to fine-tune the territory structure? Absolutely. Do we have time to do that today? No. Will we get to that in the future? Yes, that’s something we will look at,” he said.

Last week, ICBC rolled out a sweeping revamp of its basic insurance product, with the stated goal of making the system fairer. It tacked on added costs for drivers who crash, and gave credit for drivers who have more experience and a clean record.

“Based on today’s rates, in the first year of this transition, an estimated two-thirds of customers would see lower basic insurance premiums, while the remaining third of customers would see an increase,” Attorney General David Eby said at the time.

The change is meant to be revenue neutral, though drivers could pay more if ICBC asks the B.C. Utilities Commission for a rate hike in December.

But even without that hike, the odds that someone in the Lower Mainland will see their rates go up is higher than anywhere else in the province, according to figures provided by ICBC. The “territory and rate class factor” is geared to increase for drivers in the Lower Mainland about one per cent a year until 2028.

Other urban drivers, like those in Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows will see a 1.8-per-cent decrease, drivers in the Fraser Valley will see a 2.1-per-cent decrease, and those in southern Vancouver Island will see a 7.6-per-cent increase in that time frame.

But drivers in B.C.’s Interior and north will see huge decreases: 13 per cent in the Okanagan, 27 per cent in the Kootenays, 38 per cent in the Cariboo, and 40 per cent in Peace River.

“There shouldn’t be any favouritism in terms of country and city,” said Bruce Cran of the Consumer Association of Canada.

He said younger people in his own family already don’t drive, and changes that hit people in the Lower Mainland harder would make that even less likely.

“They don’t want to own a car because they don’t want to pay their own expenses,” he said.

That could be borne out in examples provided by ICBC for this story.

Second-year driver “William” who lives in the Lower Mainland would pay $1,892 today. That would go up 10 per cent next year. But a person with the same driving history, “Lucas,” would see a four per cent increase if they lived in the Cariboo.

In ten years, with clean driving records and no other changes, both drivers would see decreases in their overall rates: “William” to $1,306. But “Lucas” would see a much sharper drop: to $570. By then, the person from the Lower Mainland would be paying 2.3 times what the person in the Cariboo would be paying.

If they both crashed in 2019, their premiums would jump about 10 per cent. But because “William” is paying more in insurance, he is hit with a higher dollar value: $2,085 goes up $225 to $2,310.

“Lucas” sees a 10 per cent increase also, but because in 2019 he is paying $1,493, he only sees a $162 increase.

The map ICBC is using dates back to at least 2007, and a spokesperson suggested that it was based on provincial electoral districts.

Inexperienced drivers are already highly subsidized by the system, Jiminez said, and that subsidy will remain to avoid “cost-prohibitive” insurance. But he says over time good drivers will benefit from increased discounts.

“If you stay crash free today your discount maximum is 43 per cent. In the future, we’ll increase that to 52 per cent,” he said.

Second-year driver Jordan Hacey told CTV News he drives in Vancouver, but is having trouble paying his insurance.

“I’m trying to better my life but I can’t do it without paying $220 a month plus the price of gas. It’s criminal,” he said.

He’s trying to remain crash free – by riding his bicycle.