Republican insiders overwhelmingly believe this summer’s national convention will require multiple ballots to select the presidential nominee.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of operatives, activists and strategists in 10 key battleground states — with roughly 90 percent of respondents saying neither Donald Trump nor Ted Cruz will win the nomination on the first ballot in Cleveland.


It’s a marked shift from a month ago, when just half of insiders were predicting a contested convention. Since that time, Trump has romped to victory in states that awarded all their delegates to the winner, like Florida and Arizona. But Cruz bounced back this week in Wisconsin — and is also dominating in states like North Dakota, Colorado and Wyoming, where party insiders, not rank-and-file voters, pick the delegates.

Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin, where he won 36 of the 42 delegates at stake, narrows Trump’s path to the nomination. Trump’s path is also impaired by his precipitous fall in national polling, which hurts the New York real estate tycoon’s standing among both Republican voters and convention delegates who want to nominate a strong general-election candidate.

“Donald Trump has one chance to win the nomination, and that is on the first ballot. Right now, I put his chances at about 40 percent, and that will require him to get some number of delegates from the unpledged delegates in states like North Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and a few territories,” said an Iowa Republican, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously.

But while that Iowa Republican sees Trump performing well in upcoming primaries in New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and other Northeastern states later this month, the Republican warned that the map is less favorable in May.

“Of course, he will run up the score in the Northeast and have some April momentum, but there are good states ahead for Cruz as well, such as Indiana, Nebraska, and possibly Washington and Oregon. He's also dominated the delegate selection process in a whole host of states where they are pledged,” the Iowa Republican added.

Some insiders gave Trump, who needs to win just under 60 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination outright, an outside chance to win on the first ballot — but only if he overperforms in the upcoming states.

One Florida Republican pointed to the fact Trump’s been outgunned in recent states — including in Wisconsin, where his opponents and anti-Trump groups outspent him by a more than 10-to-1 ratio in television and radio advertising.

“If Trump invests serious money into campaign — paid messaging and infrastructure — he can get there, but he must go for it now,” the Florida Republican said. “Cheap won't do it.”

A number of Republicans squashed talk that someone other than the three remaining candidates, like House Speaker Paul Ryan, would win the nomination on the convention floor.

“There is no way any candidate heads to Cleveland with 1,237 [delegates],” said a Colorado Republican. “And there is no way someone other than Ted Cruz or Donald Trump walks out of Cleveland with the nomination. Any talk of that is just speculation to fill airtime or wishful thinking among many Republicans.”

Notably, GOP insiders in John Kasich’s home state were more bullish on their governor’s chances at the convention: One Ohio Republican predicted Kasich would win the nomination on the fourth ballot, while another said it would happen on the fifth.

Other GOP insiders worried about both the short- and long-term effects for Republicans of a contested convention, especially if Trump enters Cleveland with the most delegates but is denied the nomination.

“The issue is what this will do to the GOP and those voters who have been attracted to Trump because they feel left behind,” said a Pennsylvania Republican. “The fact is that a contested convention in itself is nothing nefarious, but how it will be portrayed by the media and social media could adversely impact the GOP for years to come.”

“Some of us who were in Kansas City 40 years ago remember a spirited, uncertain start of convention week,” a veteran Iowa Republican added. “Tension and drama? Yes. But there was respect between the Ford and Reagan camps, no talk of skullduggery, and a sense the GOP would leave town united. Oh, for the good ole' days!”

Democrats: It’s not panic time for Clinton.

Bernie Sanders has won seven of the past eight contests, but Democratic insiders aren’t terribly worried about Hillary Clinton's condition as she limps closer to clinching the party’s presidential nomination.

Asked whether Clinton’s campaign should be worried about Sanders’ winning streak, including a 13.5-point victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday, only a combined 26 percent of Democratic insiders said the Clinton camp should be worried or very worried.

The majority, 51 percent, said Clinton’s team shouldn’t be too worried, and another 23 percent said it shouldn’t be worried at all — with most citing the upcoming primaries in New York and other Northeastern states as more favorable for Clinton. (Wyoming, which will hold caucuses on Saturday, is thought to be Sanders territory.)

“Sure, [Tuesday in Wisconsin] was a bad night for a process story, but in terms of the delegate lead, it had almost no impact at all,” said a Wisconsin Democrat. “She'll do well in New York and then soar through the rest of the contest.”

“It's all about the math,” added a New Hampshire Democrat. “He can't win.”

But some battleground-state Democrats see troubling signs for Clinton in the protracted battle with Sanders.

“I continue to believe that the contest between Sanders and Clinton is enormously damaging to the Democratic Party's chances in November,” said a North Carolina Democrat. “She may emerge the candidate at the convention but without the solidly enthusiastic support she needs from the base to help propel her to victory in the general election.”

“Coupled with Wyoming coming up, and the landslide [delegate] flip in Nevada, there could be problems ahead,” added a Nevada Democrat.

An Ohio Democrat who said the Clinton camp should be worried about her difficulty in closing out Sanders pointed to the Vermont senator’s supporters and his low chances of winning the nomination.

“Only because they have to deal with more and more of his crazy followers and their wild pipe dream that he can win,” the Ohio Democrat quipped.

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Adam Eichberg, Alan Salazar, Andrew Freedman, B.J. Nikkel, Craig Hughes, Cole Finegan, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Michael Fortney, Owen Loftus, Pat Waak, Pete Maysmith, Rick Ridder, Rob Witwer, Roxane White, Ryan Call, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Ted Harvey, Will Coyne

Florida: Alia Faraj-Johnson, Andrea Reilly, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, April Schiff, Ashley Walker, Ben Pollara, Beth Matuga, Brian E. Crowley, Chris Korge, Christian Ulvert, Damien Filer, David Beattie, David Johnson, Dennis Baxley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Nuender, Eric Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Fernand R. Amandi, Fred Menachem, Gus Corbella, Jacki Lee, Jessica D. Ehrlich, Joe Mobley, John Dowless, Jon Mills, Joseph Falk, Judith Diaz, Justin Day, Kelly Cohen, Kevin Cate, Kevin Sweeny, Marian Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Marty Fiorentino, Max Steele, Nelson Diaz, Nick Iarossi, Pamela Burch Fort, Rich Heffley, Richard R. Swann, Rick Wilson, Roger Stone, Ronald L. Book, Ryan Duffy, Ryan Wiggins, Scott Arceneaux, Slater Bayliss, Steve Schale, Steven Vancore, Susan A. MacManus, Tim Baker, Wayne Bertsch

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Anita S. Earls, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charles Wallin, Christopher Sgro, Dee Stewart, Douglas Wilson, Dylan Frick, Francis X. De Luca, Jonathan Felts, Melissa Reed, Michael Luethy, Morgan Jackson, Paul Shumaker, Patsy Keever, Ray Martin, Robin Hayes, Tami Fitzgerald, Taylor Griffin, Theresa Kostrzewa, Thomas Mills

Ohio: Bill DeMora, Bob Clegg, Cindy Demse, Damareo Cooper, David Leland, David Pepper, Erica Bruton, Greg Beswick, Ian James, Jai Chabria, Janet Carson, Jo Ann Davidson, Joe Hallett, Kathy DiCristofaro, Katie Eagan, Mark R. Weaver, Martha Clark, Matt Borges, Melissa Klide Hedden, Michael Gonidakis, Mike Dawson, Molly Shack, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, Tim Burke, Wes Goodman

Pennsylvania: Charlie Gerow, Christopher Nicholas, Christopher P. Borick, Daniel F. Fee, David P. Sosar, David Thornburgh, Doc Sweitzer, Jaosn Ercole, Larry Ceisler, Marcel Groen, Mark Harris, Nachama Soloveichik, Ray Zaborney, Todd Stephens

Virginia: Abbi Easter, Bob Marshall, Brian Coy, Carolyn Fiddler, Chris LaCivita, Doris Crouse-Mays, Ed Matricardi, Frank Leone, Gaylene Kanoyton, Janet Carver, Jeannemarie Devoltes Davis, Jo Thoburn, Joe Fitzgerald, John Crosgrove, John Findlay, Marc Broklawski, Margo Horner, Michael Farris, Patsy Brown, Pete Snyder, Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Steve Stombres, Sue Langley, Susan J. Rowland, Susan Swecker, Tom Davis, Tucker Martin

Wisconsin: Barry Burden, Brandon Scholz, Emily Nehring, Gary B. Hawley, Jason Rae, Jim Camery, John T. Zapfel, Kevin Barthel, Meg Andrietsch, Marian Krumberger, Mary Arnold, Michael Basford, Patrick Guarasci, Rebecca Bonesteel, Robert Hansen, Terri Burl

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

