Have the Naxalites and their friends in urban centres become a desperate lot?

The Pune police recently released a note with a chilling message from Naxalites, referring to a “Rajiv Gandhi-like incident”. The plot, according to the note, was to assassinate Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he was making electoral gains in several states despite a big loss in Bihar.

The urban allies of Naxalites have been in overdrive ever since, in an attempt to dub the letter as fake. But this political desperation, to assassinate Modi, was sensed even before Modi became the Prime Minister. The October 2013 Patna blasts was likely one such instance.

The big question now is: why are Naxalites getting this desperate? It is well known that Naxalites have been facing the heat of security agencies these past four years. If one were to analyse the data from 2005 onwards, there is a clear indication that left-wing terrorists have been in trouble.

In 2005, there were 717 casualties in Naxal-related incidents – 281 civilians, 150 security personnel, and 286 Naxalites lost their lives. Between 2005 and 2018, the highest casualty figure was witnessed in 2010 when 626 civilians, 277 security personnel, and 277 Naxals died, leading to a total casualty toll of 1,180 persons.

Data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) shows a steep decline in the number of Naxal-related incidents. Between 2014 and 2018, there has been a steady fall in the number of casualties involving both civilians and security personnel. While 2014 saw 128 civilian casualties, in 2015, it was 93. In 2016 and 2017, the figures stood at 123 and 109 respectively. On the other hand, the number of Naxals killed in 2014 was 99 whereas in 2015 and 2016, it was 101 and 244 respectively.

The year 2017 saw 333 casualties in all, with 109 civilians losing their lives. The number of security personnel martyred stood at 74, and the number of Naxalites killed was 150. Data for 2018 compiled until 27 May suggests that 41 security personnel have been martyred, in addition to the death of 56 civilians, while 116 Naxalites have been killed.

A Desperate Retreat

While the number of incidents related to left-wing terrorism have fallen substantially, what is more important is the manner in which the Naxalites have been retreating. Apart from the encounters that have taken place, security forces have carried out a large number of arrests. The Home Ministry says that the forces have arrested 1,888 Naxalites in 2017, while in 2016 it was 1,840. In 2018, until 15 March, the number of arrests stood at 395, and SATP data suggests that until 31 March, another 46 Naxals were arrested.

The big retreat by Naxals can, however, be found in the large number of surrenders. Pushed to the wall, through 2017, at least 685 Naxalites have surrendered as opposed to the 1,442 surrenders in 2016. In 2018, until 31 March, at least 157 Naxalites have surrendered, the Home Ministry data states.

Home Minister Rajnath Singh, while speaking at the Central Reserve Police Force’s Seventy-ninth Raising Day celebrations on 24 March 2018, said, “Maoism has become a major challenge, but due to the gallant and determined action of the security forces, these incidents have come down drastically. I can say that Left Wing Extremism in the country has entered its last leg.”

In addition to the rise in the number of surrenders, the geographical spread of the Naxalites too has reduced drastically. The Home Ministry says that the number of states reporting Naxal violence has reduced from 10 in 2013 to 9 in 2017. The number of districts reporting violence has reduced from 76 in 2013 to 58 in 2017. Police stations reporting violence have reduced in number from 330 in 2013 to 291 in 2017.

Home Ministry data also shows a steady decline in the number of Naxal-related incidents. In 2009, it was at 2,258, and by 2017, it came down to 908. The table below illustrates the point.