The Global Intelligence Files

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

[MESA] Fwd: [OSAC] Interesting Item (KSA)

Released on 2013-03-04 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 75650 Date 2011-06-14 16:50:52 From burton@stratfor.com To ct@stratfor.com, mesa@stratfor.com

[MESA] Fwd: [OSAC] Interesting Item (KSA)





-------- Original Message --------



Subject: [OSAC] Interesting Item

Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2011 17:36:33 +0300

From: Ron Hindmand <pc@vinnellarabia.com>

Reply-To: pc@vinnellarabia.com

To: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>



All,



Long, but interesting read.



Cheers,



Ron



Resisting the Arab Revolution



First Cracks Appear in Saudi Arabia's Forced Calm



By Susanne Koelbl in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia



Saudi Arabia's rulers are doing their utmost to resist the tide of

history. The wealthy Arab country wants peace and stability within its

society and in the region. But even the ultraconservative kingdom has not

remained untouched by the unrest in the Arab world.



He landed at around midnight with two wives, an entourage of 59 people,

including three cabinet ministers -- and a 7.6-centimeter (3 inch) piece

of shrapnel in his chest. He walked down the gangway with great difficulty

-- but "upright," according to eyewitnesses -- to a waiting convoy that

would take him from the airport north of Riyadh to the city's large

military hospital. The Saudi Arabian capital lay silent in the desert

night, its landmark Kingdom Tower brightly lit in the darkness.



Riyadh stood in sharp contrast to the city Yemeni President Ali Abdullah

Saleh had just fled. For the past four months, the people in the Yemeni

capital Sana'a had demonstrated against his regime and had taken to the

streets, first by the tens and then by the hundreds of thousands, to

demand an end to his regime. Saleh had his forces shoot at the protesters

almost every night, but with each week the attacks from the other side

came closer to his palace -- until June 3, when grenades were launched

into the presidential mosque during Friday prayers, killing several of

Saleh's bodyguards and seriously wounding him and his ministers.



Saleh, 69, is the third autocrat to be swept out of office by the tide of

Arab unrest in the region, and the second to find refuge in Saudi Arabia.

Since the Tunisians forced their leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, to flee

to Jeddah in January, none of the monarchs and presidents in the Arab

world can be sure of retaining power anymore. Their subjects continue to

vent their rage across four time zones, from Mauritania to Oman. The Arab

world is out of joint.



Life as Usual



But not Saudi Arabia, or so it seems. And not Riyadh. As ever, Saudi men

sit in their large SUVs, stuck in traffic between the steel-blue facades

of office buildings, and the wives of these men are still having their

drivers drop them off in front of the shopping malls in downtown Riyadh,

where they scurry from Prada to Ralph Lauren and then disappear into

Starbucks for a latte -- in the "family department," a room on the side

kept separate from the world of men.



The boulevards and promenades of the Saudi capital look as though they had

been swept clean, as if some mysterious force had extinguished all public

life.



Riyadh has nothing like Avenue Bourguiba in Tunis or Tahrir Square in

Cairo. In fact, there is no sign in Saudi Arabia of a public political

discourse that could be compared with the debates, held in secret at first

and then more and more in the open, with which the unrest began in

Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. Almost every political

discussion seems to end with the same words: Long live the king!



Saudi Arabia feels like a realm that has come to a standstill in a rapidly

changing world. Its leaders, most notably the 86-year-old King Abdullah

bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, are pinning

their hopes on the old principle of stability, as if Ben Ali had not been

driven out of Tunisia, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had not been

toppled and Yemen's Saleh had not just been admitted to one of their

hospitals with a piece of shrapnel in his body.



Influencing Neighbors



King Abdullah must have been pleased to see his enemy Moammar Gadhafi in

difficulties, but it troubled him to see the avalanche the young

protesters in Tunis had unleashed. He didn't hesitate a moment before

offering exile to the embattled Ben Ali.



Abdullah was disgusted to see what happened to Mubarak in Cairo. Saudi

Arabia still hasn't come to terms with the Egyptian revolution.

Nevertheless, it promised EUR2.7 billion ($3.98 billion) to the military

council in Cairo to provide the new leadership with "a certain level of

comfort," as an Arab financial expert put it. It went without saying in

Cairo that the Saudis wanted the Egyptian courts to spare the elderly

Mubarak, and the Egyptian chief of staff personally thanked the Saudi king

for his pledge of financial support.



Abdullah noted angrily how the spark of revolution jumped to the small

country of Bahrain in February, and the Shiite majority rebelled against

the Sunni Al Khalifa royal family. The moderate king finally lost his

patience and, in a first in Saudi history, sent the soldiers of his

national guard across the King Fahd Causeway to Manama to crush the

uprising.



Saudi Arabia cannot intervene directly in Syria, where the unrest began in

March and came to a preliminary head last week with a massacre in the city

of Jisr al-Shughour. The House of Saud and the clan of Syrian President

Bashar Assad have eyed each other suspiciously for years, and yet the

Saudis would like to see the Syrians released from the embrace of their

Shiite archenemy Iran. But there is one concern the two leaders share:

They want calm in their countries, not change. As a result, Damascus

supported Riyadh when its troops marched into Bahrain, and Riyadh is

remaining silent, no matter how brutally Assad's forces crush the protests

in Syria.



Bringing History to a Halt



And finally there is Yemen, whose sovereignty the Saudi Arabian air force

had until recently routinely ignored to bomb Shiite rebels across the

border. But now that it has been confronted with sheer chaos since the

eruption of the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia is pinning its hopes on

stability. On Tuesday of last week, the Saudis announced that they were

sending a donation to the orphaned leadership in Sana'a, in the form of 3

million barrels of oil.



By sending troops to Bahrain, billions to Egypt, goodwill to Damascus and

oil to Yemen, Saudi Arabia, which is expected to earn $300 billion in oil

revenues this year alone, is leaving no doubt as to what it intends to do

with its power and money in the region: The kingdom wants to bring history

to a halt and reinstate calm and stability on all fronts.



But how stable is Saudi Arabia itself? There are few countries on whose

stability the world depends as much as it does on that of Saudi Arabia,

which is currently responsible for 12 percent of global oil production.

Exactly how calm is this wealthy country that wants nothing but calm all

around it? And where are the first cracks beginning to appear?



'Democracy Is the Only Solution'



Jamal Khashoggi sits in his office in the Kingdom Tower, 300 meters (about

1,000 feet) above a city that stretches to a hazy horizon. "The absolute

monarchy is obsolete," says Khashoggi. "Democracy is the only solution."

Others in Saudi Arabia would be interrogated and locked up for such words.



Khashoggi, one of the country's most outspoken intellectuals, is wearing a

snow-white shirt that reaches to the floor, known as the thaub, and a

black cord keeps his head scarf in place. It's the standard work attire of

Saudi Arabian businessmen.



The former reporter was a good friend of former Al-Qaida leader Osama bin

Laden, whom he knew as a young man in the 1980s, during the war in

Afghanistan. He often visited him in the caves of Tora Bora and most

recently met him in Sudan in 1995.



At the same time, Khashoggi is seen as one of the most progressive

thinkers in the country. He is building a television network modeled after

Al-Jazeera for Prince Waleed Bin Talal, a billionaire and a reformer

within the royal family.



Saudi Arabia is a land of contradictions. Some of the things that are

thought and expressed there would sound absurd, even outrageous, if voiced

in the West. To this day, many in Saudi Arabia believe that bin Laden did

not attack the Twin Towers in New York. "Of course it was him," says

Khashoggi.



He confesses that he had long shared bin Laden's view that there are only

two ways to liberate the Arab world of its corrupt regimes: by

infiltrating the political system through its institutions, or by

violently overthrowing the depraved ruling cliques. Democracy "was not an

option at the time," says Khashoggi.



Signs of Insecurity



A drive through the kingdom today, to Jeddah in the relatively liberal

West, for example, to Dammam in the oil-rich Eastern Province, or to the

fundamentalist city of Buraydah, which is nicknamed the "heart of

darkness," reveals a society that senses that things cannot continue the

way they have been going if everything is to remain unchanged -- in other

words, stable.



There are signs of insecurity, such as a decree recently issued by the

king, under which the grand mufti and other clerics can no longer be

criticized. The law probably says more about the dwindling power of the

religious leaders than about their strength.



Members of the opposition are constantly being imprisoned. Some 11,000

have been arrested since Sept. 11, 2001, and more than 5,000 are still in

prison today.



Who exactly these prisoners are is difficult to say. There is no

transparency, and there are no legal procedures that adhere to

international standards. Some are members of radical Islamic movements

that are strongly resistant to Western-style modernization.



'We Must Be Careful that the Current Doesn't Wash Us Away'



"We are sensitive," says General Mansour Sultan al-Turki of the Saudi

Arabian Interior Ministry. The two-star general is sitting in a large,

yellow leather armchair in a wing of the Interior Ministry in Riyadh. The

building looks like a giant UFO with which half the city could be

evacuated into space, if necessary. "We must be careful that the current

doesn't wash us away," he explains.



The general is part of a generation that perceived the introduction of the

telephone as "confusing and dangerous," and which was worried about women

getting the devices into their hands, because it would enable them to

speak to strange men outside the house.



No one invited globalization to Saudi Arabia. It simply arrived. Banning

satellite connections or blocking websites didn't help stave it off.



TV soap operas, Pizza Hut and online dating services are changing Saudi

society as much today as the religious reformer Mohammed Bin Abd

al-Wahhab, who preached the pure teachings of the Prophet Muhammad and the

strict separation of the sexes, did 200 years ago. Like everywhere else in

the Arab world, the Internet and television are used intensively in Saudi

Arabia, to which furious conservatives say: "The camel already has its

snout in the tent."



The divorce rate is 40 percent today, families are shrinking and cities

are exploding. One in three Saudi Arabians has diabetes, and just as many

are overweight.



High Expectations



Some 2 million of the country's 20 million citizens are studying in

universities, with 110,000 attending the world's top institutions. After

studying abroad, the grandchildren of the wealthy oil generation return

home with high expectations. They want the same things that their parents

have: a driver, a nanny and a gardener. But there are no jobs, and 26

percent of men are unemployed.



The first girls' school in the country opened in the early 1960s. Today

young women make up 52 percent of university students. Many men are

horrified at the thought of these women driving themselves to work in the

future -- like 32-year-old Manal al-Sharif who recently filmed herself

driving as part of a campaign for women's rights, and was promptly

arrested.



The general with the moustache sinks more deeply into his armchair, as if

he felt the burden of responsibility on his shoulders. He too has

daughters. "The woman is a cause for concern," he says with a sigh.



The ministry he serves is run by a strict hand. Interior Minister Nayef

bin Abdul-Aziz is seen as a counterweight to, and potential successor of,

his brother, the moderate reformist Abdullah. Nayef's ministry is a

bastion against all those who could destabilize the Saud monarchy, which

has ruled the country for two generations: terrorists, criminals and

provocateurs.



A joke making the rounds these days is that one reason wealthy Saudis

never take part in protests is that it would mean having to get out of

their SUVs. Instead, goes the joke, if they were ever to take to the

streets, they would prefer to send their employees, the Pakistani drivers

and Filipino gardeners, who would then hold up the protest signs for them.



'There Are Very Few Dissidents Here'



"We don't need demonstrations, because we talk to one another," says

General Turki. He speaks softly, as if he knew that the masses support him

and his king. "There are very few dissidents here," he adds.



A law has been in place for the last three months that bans

demonstrations. It was adopted in the wake of protests by the Shiite

minority in the city of Qatif that had supported the rebellious Shiite

majority in Bahrain. The protests continue to this day.



Large oil pipelines lie to the left and right of buildings in Qatif, but

Shiites have never attacked any of these facilities. They are apparently

not fundamentally opposed to the state or in favor of overthrowing the

king. Instead, they are protesting over civil rights, a lack of

recognition and discrimination against a minority that the regime doesn't

trust. The Shiites make up about 10 percent of the population, but they

are not permitted to serve in the military or hold high office. They are

denounced in the schoolbooks as heretics.



The regime senses that these conditions are unsustainable in the long run.

In Qatif, the provincial governor is now speaking directly with

representatives of the protesters about the construction of new mosques

and the possibility of women becoming school principals. The government's

concessions go far enough to tame the protesters' rage, but only as far as

necessary.



Deep Pockets



Until now, the government has simply had to reach into its coffers to keep

the people happy whenever there has been a problem. King Abdullah recently

promised his people $129 billion in new benefits. He approved low-interest

mortgages, forgave the debts of the families of deceased farmers and ruled

that students no longer had to repay the government for their foreign

tuition. He also raised the salaries of civil servants by 15 percent and

introduced unemployment insurance. Medical care is already free for Saudi

citizens. Under these circumstances, who would rebel against the

government?



"It still won't work," says Jamal Khashoggi. "We can't just spend another

100 trillion riyal tomorrow to keep everyone happy. What do we do when the

oil runs out?" Khashoggi speaks quietly and quickly, as if with his words

he were trying to accelerate developments in his country. "Everyone wants

modernity," he says, "but no one wants the side effects which go with it."



Khashoggi and his radical ideas trouble the establishment, especially

because of his dire predictions: "This nation will be reformed, just like

other nations. We too need freedom, transparency, the rule of law, a prime

minister, a real parliament."



What if the democratic process succeeds in Tunisia or Egypt, Khashoggi

asks? "We can't afford to become politically isolated."



The royal family does figure in Khashoggi's scenario, but in the form of

guardians in a constitutional monarchy. It isn't surprising that someone

like Khashoggi has already been fired several times from his positions as

editor-in-chief of leading Saudi newspapers. No one in the country wants

so many changes to happen so quickly.



Refusing to Wear a Headscarf



The female blogger Kholoud al-Fahad, 30, might be a kind of a symbol of

this rapid, disconcerting development. Fahad lives in Damman in the

Eastern Province and is the mother of two children. She wears her hair

uncovered. In addition to refusing to wear the face veil known as the

niqab, Fahad often goes out in public without a headscarf.



Fahad wears an expensive designer abaja around her slim figure, with a

knee-length silk skirt and high heels visible underneath it. And she

smokes.



She writes angry articles about the fact that women in Saudi Arabia are

not permitted to travel without the signed permission of their so-called

male protectors, that they were not allowed to vote once again in local

elections in September, even though the law only requires that a person be

21 years old, be in full command of his mental faculties and have a Saudi

passport. She ridicules the practice of men controlling every movement

women make and the claims of high-ranking clerics that women are too

emotional to make decisions.



Fahad has everything -- a car, a driver and money -- and could easily lead

a comfortable life behind the walls of her large house.



'Don't Be Afraid'



But she wants more. She wants to become a TV host. Her family is horrified

over the prospect of her having to show her face to an audience of

millions.



"Why are you working against society?" her mother asks. "Why do you

humiliate us?" an uncle asks angrily.



As a girl, Fahad was the most devout child in school, until her father, a

developer who traveled a lot, threw the Wahhabite books she had been

reading into the bathtub, where they came apart.



Six years ago, she was with her father in a shopping mall when the mutawa,

the golden robe-wearing religious police, approached them. She quickly

pulled her veil over her head. "Why are you doing that?" the father asked.

"Don't be afraid." That incident changed her life, says Fahad.



Male Feminists



It is possible that there are as many male feminists as there are female

feminists in Saudi Arabia today. Some are even in the palace. In 2009, the

king opened the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology near

Jeddah. He had ordered the separation of the sexes to be lifted at the new

institution, where women and men sit next to each other in lecture halls.

When a cleric issued a fatwa against the modern university and its

promoters, the king dismissed him.



Political scientist Samir Anabtawi taught at Yale University for a long

time. Paintings by Wassily Kandinsky and Paul Klee hang in his living

room, while a string concerto is playing on the stereo.



The king and his princes are the glue that holds society together, says

Anabtawi. He points out that many in Saudi Arabia want reforms, including

many of the royals, but that no one wants the country to end up like Iraq,

Yemen or Syria.



Soon the king could be a man who was educated at an elite American

university, says the professor. The only question, he adds, is whether the

kingdom will first experience a "period of gerontocracy," as the crumbling

Soviet Union did 30 years ago.



The sons of the country's founder, Ibn Saud, are all older than 65 today.

Perhaps the biggest source of instability lies in the rivalry within the

large family over the throne.



'History Is Happening'



The Saudis have invested their oil billions cleverly in the last 30 years.

When the king breeds Arabian horses, and when he irrigates the desert and

educates his elites, he now has top advisers from Europe and the United

States to help him. There is even progress in the so-called heart of

darkness, Buraydah, where women now have mobile phones and access to the

Internet. Instead of the black full-body veil that even covers the hands

and the face, very young women are now wearing veils with a narrow slit

for their eyes, which sometimes offers a view of sophisticated makeup --

which can be considered progress by Saudi Arabia's standards.



General Turki would like to have seen the king enact a law early on that

at least banned the cameras in mobile phones. "Because of our daughters,"

he says.



In Kingdom Tower, the journalist Jamal Khashoggi leans triumphantly

against his desk, his eyes flashing with excitement. "The mobile phone

camera is on my side," he says. "History is happening. No one can stop

it."



Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan



URL:



o http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,768368,00.html













