The City of Ottawa is expected to announce Friday whether or not it agrees with Rideau Transit Group that the Confederation Line is ready for its do-or-die test run. So what happens next?

The consortium filed its notice of "substantial completion" on Monday, giving the city five days to assess for itself whether the light rail system is indeed finished and ready for a 12-day simulation during which the trains will run more or less as they will when they're in service.

If the city agrees with RTG this time — last time, it didn't — it will hand the matter over to the independent certifier, who has another five days to make the final decision about whether or not the system is complete.

If the independent certifier also signs off, two things happen: RTG becomes eligible for a $59.4-million payment from the city, and a 12-day trial run — a crucial step before RTG hands over the keys — can begin.

Safety, travel times

According to a July 22 memo from the city's general manager of transportation services, John Manconi, the objective of the 12-day trial run is to "confirm system readiness for passenger service by exercising the Confederation Line system at full functionality."

The team conducting the trial run will consist of representatives from RTG, RTG's maintenance wing (RTM) and the city. The independent certifier will also take part in the testing stage.

They'll be keeping an eye on safety, travel times, vehicle performance and various other elements including public address systems, escalators and elevators, ventilation and CCTV cameras.

John Manconi, Ottawa's general manager of transit services. (CBC News)

The trains won't be running constantly during the trial period.

"On occasions during the Trial Running, the public may not see trains running on the Confederation Line," Manconi's memo warned. "This is normal as there are many different systems being tested at different times throughout this period."

Starting over again

If there's a major hitch, however, the 12-day trial must begin again. That means while it's feasible the trial could be completed as early as about Aug. 7, that will only happen if it all goes flawlessly. The trial run could take significantly longer, threatening to derail Mayor Jim Watson's promise that the handover will take place by Aug. 16.

Once the independent certifier and an independent safety auditor sign off on the trial run, RTG can submit its "revenue service availability" notice for another $202.3 million. Both the city and the independent certifier must review and approve that invoice before any money changes hands.

At that point, the city will need up to four more weeks "to conduct final preparations for our launch of the system to our customers," according to Manconi. That will include training, drills and exercises, as well as planning for the final transition from buses to trains. The city's "Ready for Rail" public relations campaign will switch into high gear to make sure transit users have all the information they need "to ensure a safe and reliable transition."

That would bring us to mid-September before the first passengers board a train and ride Ottawa's new Confederation Line.