These models fall into two categories. Two are based on past turnout as reported by our respondents (the two columns on the right in the above table). Two others do not. The models based on past turnout yield demographic profiles that are more white and male than recent off-year elections, as measured by U.S. Census surveys. In contrast, ours shows Democrats -- who are more likely to be female and African-American -- reporting that they are following the election more closely and are more likely to vote than are Republicans. That combination argues for being more skeptical about the models that incorporate self-reported past turnout.