The scheme's low carbon pollution target, though, meant 97 per cent of its emissions goal would be achieved before it starts - leaving little incentive for further emissions reductions in later years. As expected, the Turnbull government has stuck with plans to limit the power sector to do no more than a "pro-rata" emissions reduction target than Australia's Paris climate pledge to cut 2005-level greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030. This is despite the electricity industry having greater scope to achieve low cost reductions than other sectors. 'Steady trajectory' Just as the Paris promise included a gradual drop in carbon pollution, the guarantee would follow "a steady trajectory calibrated to achieve the 2030 target" of a 26 per cent cut, with targets set annually from 2021, the federal paper shows. "Expressing the initial 10 years of electricity emissions targets in Commonwealth legislation will

provide investment certainty because the emissions per [megawatt-hour] level market customers must achieve for compliance will be known for the first 10 years of the scheme," it said.

"Electricity emissions targets will be extended by 2025 for the financial years 2031 to 2035, and

will be further extended every five years thereafter," the paper said. The Turnbull government said the policy would be subject to review in the first half of 2024 "to ensure targets from 2025 to 2030 remain appropriate". That review timetable- still six years away - brings it back closer to the five-year review period set when the scheme was unveiled late in 2017. The government says the scheme will deliver lower emissions while pushing power prices down and ensuring the reliability of the grid as more renewable energy enters the network. Fairfax Media sought comment from Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg and from several of the states and the ACT. A spokesman for the ACT government said it was still considering the report.

Mark Butler, federal Labor's climate spokesman, said the final plan design showed Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull "remains beholden to the extreme-right anti-renewable members of the Coalition by locking in an inadequate 10-year pollution reduction target". "Labor will not support a NEG that is designed to stifle renewable energy investment," he said. "If the Turnbull Government was serious about a pro-investment NEG that will drive down prices, they would review their weak policy now, not in 2024." Erwin Jackson, a climate policy expert at Environment Victoria, was also dismissive of the 2024 review, saying "it's a farce and for all intents and purposes, still locks in no action for a decade". "It will just continue to strangle renewables investment for a decade," Mr Jackson said. "This is locking in a weak target by stealth." 'Reopen the debate'

The lack of a review of the policy until well into its first decade - as well as its low emissions ambition - could remain points of contention. The ACT - which could block the plan when energy ministers meet in Sydney on August 10 to decide on the policy - has been among the most critical of the scheme's design. Salim Mazouz, principal for consultants NCEconomics, said even with a review the promise of investor certainty could prove to be illusory since the electricity sector had the ability to do much more than other industries to curb emissions. Transport, agriculture and other sectors will realise they will have to do much more, "so it will reopen the debate" on emissions goals almost immediately, Mr Mazouz said. Loading 'Good thing' on offsets

According to the paper, the federal government will limit the ability for "market customers" to meet their emissions requirements under the scheme to just 5 per cent of their obligations. They will also only be able to buy Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCU), rather than tap overseas projects saving carbon. "It's a good thing they will not allow international offsets, and a good thing they've capped it at a low level," Mr Mazouz, a former Productivity Commission economist, said. However, as the emissions target is set so low - and will be all but met by the time the NEG starts - the willingness to pay by electricity retailers for ACCUs “will be close to zero”, he said. The federal paper also outlines how trade-exposed companies will be exempt from the scheme so they do not lose competitiveness with international rivals.