Small sample sizes. In baseball, they are good for very little beyond, well, they’re just not very good. Which makes tonight’s start for Tim Lincecum vs. the Dodgers just that much more interesting.

On the one hand, Giants Nation is waiting with bated breath to see what a slightly heavier, well-coiffed Big Time Timmy Jim will do in his first start since a disastrous 2012 regular season. Can he ever be close to the same again, or was his dominant post-season run in the bullpen a glimpse at his ultimate destiny as a pitcher?

On the other hand, does it even matter what happens tonight or will we just be fooling ourselves one way or another as we either proclaim his demise or trumpet his return to glory?

My brain tells me that it’s the latter and that no matter what happens in Los Angeles tonight, we will only be able to judge where Timmy’s future lies after the dust settles on the 2013 season. Meanwhile my gut is convinced that we will know right away whether all the talk of re-dedicating himself and working harder in the off-season was all just rhetoric from a once-great pitcher trying to do and say all the right things.

History, unfortunately, is not much of a guide here either as Lincecum’s early season results have varied about as much as his command of the fastball. Last year, as we know, he stumbled out of the blocks in Arizona and never really recovered despite a few decent outings here and there.

In 2008, the first of his back-to-back Cy Young Award winning seasons, he was dominant from the word go and never looked back. But in 2009 he gave up seven earned runs in 8.1 innings over his first two starts before righting the ship and winning his second Cy Young Award. In short, the raw numbers from tonight’s game will mean nothing in terms of what we can expect from Lincecum going forward.

So what can we take away from 2013’s maiden voyage to Freaky Town without overreacting one way or another? First and foremost, I want to see a major step forward in command. In Lincecum’s last start this spring against the A’s he showed better control than I had seen in quite some time. But for all the strikes he threw he still showed the propensity to get hammered on pitches away from his intended target. Case in point, the towering homerun off the bat of Yoenis Cespedes on a slider that should have been down but instead hung out over the plate. Even if Lincecum gives up runs tonight, it is vital that he hits his spots more often than not.

Second, I will be looking for a better, more efficient game plan than simply trying to strike everyone out. The days of reaching back and blowing it by people are over for Lincecum and even if it means he has to pitch backwards (off-speed pitches to set up the fastball), I want to see him and Buster Posey get on the same page and execute a plan of attack. Again, if he gets knocked around so be it, just as long as we don’t see as many 0-2 to 3-2 situations which have been symptomatic of Lincecum’s struggles with efficiency and his stubbornness when it comes to trying to rack up the K’s.

Lastly, I will be looking for the energy in his delivery that Giants fans have become so accustomed to seeing but that has simply not been there over the last season-plus. If you’ve watched Timmy enough you know what I’m talking about. That extra little hop in his delivery that makes it seem as though he is trying to throw himself at the strike zone along with the ball. The impossibly-quick arm that you’re sure is going to fly right off of his body at any moment, but somehow manages to stay attached while delivering darting sliders and dancing changeups. That’s what I want to see in tonight’s start and I firmly believe the rest will take care of itself.

I will admit, more and more I’ve sided with those that think it would be best if the Giants had a hot-shot prospect to slide into the rotation so they could resurrect the role of dominant long-man for Lincecum. In the absence of that option however, I remain optimistic about his ability to turn things around. Tonight is an important first step, but just how important remains to be seen.