Ambiguity Effect is a cognitive bias. It took me a while to figure out that the probability of getting a yellow (or black) ball is 1/3, so I decided to draw this cartoon so that I don’t forget. But if a Black Swan prepped the box I don’t think it will be 1/3 chance.

In business, if you’d like your customer to go with one option but not the other, give more information to the one you’re trying to sell and not much info for the other one.

The last box is available for download from My Store.