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NEW DELHI: The monsoon this year is refusing to be gone soon. After late-September deluges in Hyderabad and Pune, the Met department has warned of intense rainfall in Bihar till September 29, with “extremely heavy” rains at a few places on Saturday, even as the monsoon is set for the most delayed withdrawal since at least 1960.

“There is no indication of monsoon’s withdrawal in our weather models till October 5. In fact, the west Rajasthan region, from where the withdrawal begins, is likely to receive some more rain over the next few days,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD’s director general of meteorology. Monsoon normally begins its retreat, starting from west Rajasthan, around September 1.

If IMD’s model forecasts hold true, this would be the first time in at least 59 years that withdrawal would begin after end-September. IMD’s monsoon reports say the most delayed withdrawal so far (since 1960) was in 2007, when it began on September 30.

Not only is the monsoon’s retreat likely to be delayed by over a month, the system has been showing high activity till very late in the season. The all-India average rainfall in September so far is 37% above normal. The month has had just two days of below-normal rains so far. In fact, average daily rainfall has picked up again this week in all regions except northwest India.

This week, a low pressure system coming in from Bay of Bengal caused unusually heavy showers over Telangana and other places in south India before wreaking havoc over Maharashtra’s Pune district. Now, the activity has shifted to east India, particularly Bihar. Mohapatra said rains are likely to shift to the northeast from September 29, particularly Mizoram , Manipur and Tripura . “Thereafter, some rainfall may occur over north Madhya Pradesh and Haryana, including Delhi, on October 1and 2,” the IMD DGM said.

