The Center Will Hold: I'll Bet on It By Bryan Caplan

Last weekend, I got into a Twitter argument with a fellow who claims that Europe’s immigration problem will “inevitably” lead to civil war:

@bryan_caplan As a human nature pessimist, I see ethno-cultural balkanization and civil war as inevitable on current trends. — Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015

My reaction, as usual, was to propose a bet. And as usual, the person claiming “inevitability” refused to offer me favorable odds. Instead, he asked me to offer him favorable odds!

@bryan_caplan Civil war in multiple countries, within 30 years, tens of thousands killed. 10/1 would be nice. — Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015

My bets are often of the form, “You’re confident, I’m ignorant, so give me favorable odds and I’ll bet you.” In this instance, however, I don’t plead ignorance. I am confident that civil war won’t happen in Western Europe for any reason whatsoever. So here’s the bet I’m offering:

You pay me $x today. If any European country that was not Communist in 1988 has a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities between today and December 31, 2045, I will immediately pay you $7x. Germany counts, Turkey doesn’t. Any front page story in The New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall St. Journal stating that a literal civil war in one of the specified nations has led to 10,000 or more fatalities in that nation ends the bet in my opponents’ favor. If I die before the bet resolves, the bet ends and my heirs keep the money.

I am willing to accept up to $500 on this wager, committing me to pay up to $3500 if I lose. Per my current rules, I will bet anyone willing to pre-pay me via Paypal. If there is any doubt about my reliability, note that (a) I frequently bet, and have never been accused of non-payment, (b) I am a public figure with reputation to lose, (c) I have a stable address, having been a GMU professor for 18 years, (d) I am 44 years old, so am quite likely to survive until 2045. Multiple betting partners have accepted such terms in the past.

You may accept these terms in the comments or via email. The bet officially begins when I receive payment.