Democrats rejoiced on Wednesday after Speaker Paul Ryan announced his decision to retire, painting his departure as the surest sign yet that a Democratic wave is going to deliver them the House in November.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) issued a brief statement commending the speaker’s “steadfast commitment to our country.” But other Democrats were giddy. And Pelosi herself began introducing ranking members as soon-to-be chairmen at a private meeting as word of Ryan’s retirement spread rapidly on Capitol Hill.


Pelosi has used the line with members before, but it took on new significance Wednesday. Democrats were already in their best position in years to regain the House majority with a record number of candidates signing up to run, a raft of vulnerable Republicans retiring, and outrage and activism on the left at its peak. At the same time, President Donald Trump faces historically low approval ratings.

Ryan’s shocking announcement comes in the middle of a critical midterm election cycle in which the House is on the line, something that only bolsters Democrats’ confidence.

“It is the clearest sign that we’ve seen that the Democrats are going to win,” said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.). “I’ve been saying, ‘I don’t quite see the wave, but I’m starting to feel the mist.’ Now I’m starting to see the wave.”

Speculation about Ryan’s future had been building for months, but the timing of Wednesday’s announcement still rocked Capitol Hill.

POLITICO caught Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) coming out of a meeting early Wednesday, and he hadn’t yet heard the news. Nadler, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, would become chairman if Democrats were to win back the House — and the point man for any impeachment proceedings against Trump next year.

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“I’ve been reading news stories for the last two days saying that he wasn’t [going to retire],” Nadler said, expressing surprise at the news. “I think it’s a sign that he thinks it’s a good possibility we’ll take back the House.”

Ryan said the chance that Democrats might win back the House didn’t affect his decision — “none whatsoever” — and dismissed the idea that his departure would be devastating for House Republicans seeking reelection.

“I really don’t think a person’s race for Congress is going to hinge on whether Paul Ryan is speaker or not,” he told reporters.

But Ryan’s year-end exit has already started to sow chaos within the Republican Conference, with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) both looking at the top job. And rank-and-file Republicans were debating Wednesday morning whether it would be best to have a GOP leadership race now or leave the question to linger until November.

Democrats predicted Ryan’s announcement will trigger another round of House Republican retirements as lawmakers confront looming filing deadlines in 19 states. Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to win back the House and are fielding candidates in dozens more competitive races across the country. Some Republicans also fear fundraising will suffer in the wake of Ryan’s decision.

“The momentum in our country is clearly at the back of Democrats,” said Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.). “There is little question that we will go back into the majority in the next Congress,and it doesn’t completely surprise me that in light of that, Speaker Ryan has decided not to seek reelection.”

Florida Rep. Dennis Ross was the first Republican to drop announcing his retirement within hours of Ryan’s news. Ross’ conservative district isn’t an easy pickup for Democrats, but they could win the seat in a Democratic wave.

Several Democrats also mused that one trigger for Ryan’s exit might have been a a challenge back in Wisconsin. Ryan’s seat was considered solidly Republican — he and Trump both won the district by double digits in 2016 — but his main Democratic challenger, Randy Bryce, has proved to be an incredible fundraiser.

Bryce brought in $2.1 million in the first quarter of 2018, bringing his total fundraising since the cycle began to $4.75 million, according to his campaign.

“He’s pretty much unstoppable,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said of Bryce. “Presumably, this would keep any presidential ambitions that Paul Ryan has alive, whereas going down in defeat in his own district would end his career.”

Ryan was still likely to defeat to Bryce, a metal worker with the nickname “Iron Stache,” for the moustache he sports. But now Ryan’s departure creates a vacuum in the district — Republicans have until the June 1 filing deadline to find a new candidate — and Bryce is sitting on a multimillion-dollar war chest.

Some Democrats openly wondered whether Ryan’s retirement would lead him to be more critical of Trump. Following the October 2016 release of the "Access Hollywood" tape in which Trump vulgarly bragged about groping women, Ryan said he was “sickened” by Trump’s comments and told Republicans they should abandon the GOP nominee if it would help their reelection chances.

But since the election, Ryan has been careful not to criticize Trump’s erratic behavior and has mostly offered praise for the president.

“I hope that announcement frees him up to be more resistant to some of the abnormal conduct from the White House,” said Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.). “It’s his chance to be a more balanced leader for the next whatever it is, eight months.”

Those hopes might be in vain, as Ryan on Wednesday showed no signs that he was going to shift course when it comes to Trump.

“I’m grateful to the president for giving us this opportunity to do big things to get this country on the right track,” Ryan said. “He’s given us that chance, so I’m grateful to him for that.”