The “grand coalition” of centre-right and centre-left that has run the European parliament for 40 years is set to lose its majority for the first time following elections in May, according to the institution’s internal forecasts.

The centre-right European People’s party and centre-left Socialists & Democrats have long called the shots in the EU parliament, but polls suggest the two big groups will win only 45% of seats, down from 53%.

The far-right and other rightwing Eurosceptic groups are likely to make gains, although pro-EU parties will still command a majority in the parliament once Liberal and Greens seats are counted.

The latest forecast is based on the assumption the UK will leave the EU on time. If the British government were to be granted a Brexit extension longer than three months, EU officials say the UK would have to be represented in the parliament.

Under the forecast released on Monday, the two largest political groups would fall below 50% for the first time, according to the parliament’s chief spokesman, Jaume Duch Guillot. The European parliament’s forecast is based on independent national polls and data has been aggregated by Kantar Public.

In a statement, the EU parliament said the May elections were “the most important in parliament’s history”, citing Brexit and the “political context”, an allusion to political upheaval across the EU in which non-established parties across the spectrum have made electoral breakthroughs.

But fears of anti-EU or Eurosceptic parties taking over the commanding heights of the parliament are far-fetched, according to the poll. The three Eurosceptic rightwing groups, spanning from moderate conservatives to the far right, would take more than one-fifth of the seats (21.5%).

The far-right group Europe of Nations and Freedom, which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Matteo Salvini’s League party, is set to increase its share of seats from 5% to8%.

The Eurosceptic group European Conservatives and Reformists, which was created by David Cameron, is also forecast to lose ground, although it could be the fourth-largest group in the parliament despite the departure of British MEPs.

Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy, led by Nigel Farage, is on course for a slight increase in seats, despite the departure of Ukip MEPs. A number of Ukip MEPs, including Farage, have quit the party, although they remain part of the EFDD group.

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The centre-left will be hit hard by the loss of British Labour MEPs, who make up one of the largest national delegations in the Socialist group.

Polls suggest the Liberals are on course for a resurgence, with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) group on course to regain its place as the parliament’s third largest bloc, taking 11% of seats up from 9%.

The forecast may understate Liberal gains, as the ALDE numbers exclude MEPs standing for Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche, who are counted in the category “others”. Allies of the French president have said he will join forces with the ALDE group, which is led by the former Belgian prime minister and outspoken federalist Guy Verhofstadt.

Talk of a Green wave looks overblown, according to this poll, with Green MEPs set to take a slightly smaller share of seats, 6.4% compared with 6.9%. The reduction comes in spite of spectacular gains for the Greens in Germany and in Belgium’s local elections.

A poll at the weekend for the Belgian newspaper Le Soir put the Greens on course to become the largest party in Belgium’s federal parliament in the elections that will take place on the same day as the European vote (26 May in Belgium).

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The latest forecast does not examine turnout, which languished at just 43% across the EU in 2014. Officials, however, are hopeful that voter participation will increase, citing recent findings by the EU’s Eurobarometer surveys, which shows greater awareness of the upcoming elections.

The European parliament’s headline conclusions are shared by other groups, such as the independent group VoteWatch Europe, which has also predicted that the two largest groups will be unable to command a majority, while sounding a cautious note on the prospects of Eurosceptic rightwingers.

The parliament will be reduced to 705 seats as a consequence of Brexit, losing 46 seats. Some of the 73 British seats will be redistributed to other countries that are considered under-represented. If Brexit was cancelled or significantly delayed, the parliament would retain its current size.



