MONTREAL—The exact number of Conservative supporters who held their nose to stick with Stephen Harper last October and/or who would rather have had a new leader to vote for will never be known, but based on a poll published earlier this week it was probably significant.

Designed to provide an early glimpse at the dynamics of Harper’s succession, the Abacus poll suggests a majority of Conservatives will be looking for more than just a change in tone when they pick the next leader.

Over the course of the past decade, the Reform/Alliance branch of the party has dominated the Harper government. But at this early juncture, none of its leading members inspires more than tepid support among Conservative voters.

Under prominent right-of-centre champions such as Jason Kenney — Harper’s go-to minister — or Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall, the party would risk being pushed back to it strongholds of Western Canada.

East of Manitoba, the dream candidate of a plurality of Conservative voters hails from the progressive-conservative side of the family as does the runner-up.

Of the nine possible contenders put forward by Abacus, only Peter MacKay and Jean Charest, two former federal Tory leaders, enjoy double-digit support in every region of the country.

But Charest has made it clear that he is not contemplating a return to federal politics and his diehard fans seem to have accepted that his no is final.

Based on the Abacus poll, staying on the sidelines is a good call. Only in his home-province would Charest be competitive with MacKay. In Ontario and Atlantic Canada his former caucus colleague would beat him hands down.

By comparison, Wall barely registers outside of the Prairies. Ditto for Kenney.

That is not to say that Harper’s succession is MacKay’s for the asking or even that he wants the leadership. But if he did throw his hat in the ring he would be the prohibitive front-runner, especially in a field that will probably not even feature some of the names that tested best in the Abacus poll.

<bullet> Wall will be seeking another provincial mandate next year. He has consistently maintained that he has no interest in the federal job. Some believe that could change after the provincial election. But it is a rare premier who enters in a federal leadership campaign without a reasonable certainty of victory and no such assurance would be on offer to Wall in the case of the Conservative party.

<bullet> Kenney has more solid support within the party than the poll indicates. But it is clear his high ministerial profile and a reputation for efficiency have not translated into popularity. Some of Kenney’s closest allies believe that the former minister could win the party, but doubt he could win the country. They note that there is a reason why there has never been an openly social conservative leader at the helm of a major federal party.

<bullet> Ontario MP Lisa Raitt ranks best among the other former Harper team members whose names were put to the test. In the months to come, her critic role in the Commons will pit her against Finance Minister Bill Morneau; the pair is already emerging as the duo to watch in question period. But Raitt has yet to demonstrate the same proficiency in French, and no leader who was not fluently bilingual has met with electoral success federally since Lester B. Pearson in the 1960s.

By all indications, the Conservatives are not going to rush to a leadership vote. Based on the Conservative performance in question period this week, the interim team Rona Ambrose leads is well up to the job of keeping a rookie Liberal government on its toes in the House.

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It will be weeks and possibly months before the actual lay of the post-Harper land takes shape. And although recent experience shows that running to a distant also-ran finish ends up being little more than a vanity pursuit, some of the contenders will only join the race to raise their profiles.

The greater the number of contenders, the higher the odds will be that one of this week’s dark horses ends up the winner. Joe Clark and Stéphane Dion were both unlikely beneficiaries of a crowded leadership field.

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