July 25, 2016

Excerpt

An Electoral System in Crisis, is a 39-page independent in-depth examination of the accuracy and security of U.S. electronic voting equipment. This research has been invited for publication in the Journal of the International Association of Official Statistics (IAOS). Due to the unusual time constraints of the primary election cycle, and the right of the public to have access to this information, the authors are taking the unusual step of publishing ahead of time online. The full report is now available online at the website of the co-author’s documentary; and will be posted in a number of locations including the forum of The American Association for Public Opinion Research, and the forum of Social Research Methods. Below is a summary of our findings. We encourage everyone to download and read the full report.

The Research

Having confidence in our elections is central to our faith in our government, and all the decisions that we make collectively as a nation. But are the candidates who win the ones that we actually vote for? A large and growing body of research provides convincing evidence that U.S. electronic voting equipment in many parts of the country may not be counting votes accurately. This could be due to malfunctioning computer equipment that in 43 states is over a decade old, and long past its natural life. However, in many cases, the data points toward fraud as a likely explanation.

The documentation consists of statistical graphs analyzing data from five presidential cycles, as well as off-year races from across the country. The data illustrates that there are unusually large discrepancies between small precinct and large precinct election returns, and noticeable differences between hand-counted and machine-counted precinct results.

In our research we examined the election results of the 2016 presidential primaries, and found irregularities in the overwhelming majority of the twenty-one states that we analyzed. The data indicates, in particular, that the totals reported on the Democratic side in the race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders may not be correct. In state after state, independent examination by two separate analysts found suspect statistical patterns giving Clinton inflated percentages, that in all likelihood, are not fully based on actual votes, and showing Sanders with what appear to be artificially depressed totals.

The difference between the reported totals, and our best estimate of the actual vote totals, varies considerably from state to state. However, these differences are significant—sometimes more than 10%—and could change the outcome of the 2016 Democratic presidential primary. We found irregularities in the 2016 Republican presidential primary as well, and while concerning, we do not believe they are large enough to change the outcome of that race. It is important to note that the fact that a candidate benefits from irregularities does not imply that a candidate is responsible for them.

Fritz Scheuren, a member of the statistics faculty at George Washington University, and a former president of the American Statistical Association, has been a collaborator in this research. Examining the data from the study, Scheuren said, “As a statistician, I find the results of the 2016 primary voting unusual. In fact, I found the patterns unexpected [and possibly even] suspicious. There is a greater degree of smoothness in the outcomes than the roughness that is typical in raw/real data.”

The underlying analysis for this research was presented in an article by Beth Clarkson in the Royal Statistical Society journal, Significance. This method was also covered in a number of other scientific papers and blogs, some of which were weakened by incorrect assumptions and flawed analysis. This research is the most comprehensive and academically rigorous treatment of the material that has been published to date, using blind replication of the data by more than one statistician and verification by respected members of the academic statistical community.

An Environment of Corruption

The portrait of an electoral system in crisis is further supported by reports from election integrity organizations, media outlets, and individuals on social media that voting is increasingly taking place in a corrupt environment. This contextual evidence of voters purged from the rolls, registrations lost in the mail, party registrations being changed without a voters’ knowledge or intent, voters being sent incorrect ballots, a shortage of ballots, polling places being closed, discouragingly long lines in targeted precincts and states, and disturbingly large disparities between initial exit polls and official results, lends credence to the argument that if one form of fraud is already in play, another form of fraud is more plausible. This information is being aggregated by election integrity groups such as Election Justice USA, through voter testimonials and lawsuits that are in progress around the country.

Figure 1 is an example of a disenfranchised voter from the 2016 presidential primaries. Stories like this have been ubiquitous in many states, including Arizona, New York and California. More of these instances are documented in this article on Heavy.com.