THE 2016 Republican primary is nearly a year away, but the ground is already thick with contenders. With a State of the State address that sounded like a national campaign speech, an incipient leadership PAC, and travel plans to the Hawkeye State, Chris Christie, New Jersey's governor, looks set to join the fray. He's entering a crowded field. Mitt Romney (pictured), the GOP's failed 2012 champion, appears to be running again. Then there's Jeb Bush, Florida's erstwhile governor and the 43rd president's little brother. Republican primary-goers certainly won't be left wanting for deep-pocketed, establishment-friendly, big-name moderates from which to choose. Of course, there's only so much chamber-of-commmerce campaign cash to go around, and this would seem to create an opening on the Tea-Party right for the likes of Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, or ... Mike Huckabee? It's far too early for anything but the most rampant speculation, but let's not let that stop us. Here is an illuminating infographic created by Crowdpac that uses campaign-finance data to estimate each prospective candidate's place on the left-to-right spectrum, and which can help orient us in a quick tour through the emerging Republican field. Let's begin with Chris Christie.

As you can see, Mr Christie takes the dubious honour of ranking least conservative among Republicans. Added to a spate of economic woes, including a downgrade of New Jersey's credit rating, and the so-called Bridgegate scandal, in which the governor's minions caused a traffic tangle to spite political opponents, a "most liberal Republican" prize would seem to spell trouble for Mr Christie. It remains to be seen whether Mr Christie can make up for a shaky economic record, a whiff of corruption and a lack of conservative bona fides with his bluff Jersey charm. The governor's Yankee fans are enamoured of his brusque charisma, but it is rather less beguiling to voters in the South and Midwest, to whom Mr Christie can come off as a shambling loudmouth. As chairman of the Republican Governor's Association, Mr Christie enjoyed a splendid midterm season, inspiring confidence in his strategic savvy among Republican donors. But he will inevitably butt heads with Messrs Bush and Romney as they nose into the same trough of moderate, pro-business campaign cash. As much good will as he may have won as the triumphant head of the governor's association, it's hard to see Mr Christie overcoming the access advantages of Mr Romney, the last primary's mega-wealthy victor, and Mr Bush, the ultimate insider.

Presumably Mr Romney, who falls into the middle ground of Republican prospects on Crowdpac's measure, would not run if he did not think he could win. Mr Romney is arguably the most decent and competent man in the race, but that doesn't mean anyone's excited about his candidacy. Republican legislators are conspicuously tepid about a new Romney run, and even the poor fellow who got a pro-Romney face tattoo last go-round doubts his chances. In the competition for establishment support, Mr Romney's best bet may be to argue that Mr Bush's positions on immigration and education, which put him near Mr Christie at the far left of the party, will render him toxic with conservative primary voters, and then to deploy his resources to make sure that turns out to be case.

Mr Bush's challenge in the invisible primary will be to convince GOP rainmakers that he's not so unpalatable to grassroots conservatives, and that, unlike Mr Romney, they can count on him to prevail in the general election. There is talk of Bush fatigue, but on the whole name recognition counts in Mr Bush's favour. Whatever else they may be, Bushes are proven winners, and Mr Bush is the establishment candidate to beat. But what if Mr Bush's tussle with Messrs Romney and Christie for insider support leaves them all a bit beat up?

Rand Paul, who takes the "most conservative" prize, according to Crowdpac's metric, is already going hard in New Hampshire, taking shots at Jeb Bush's support for the Common Core, a conservative proposal for national educational standards now anathema to conservatives. Mr Paul's father, Ron Paul, came in a respectable second-place in the 2012 New Hampshire primaries, behind Mr Romney; the son, too, could catch momentum with a win there. But as I recently argued, Mr Paul's paternal legacy is as much a curse as a blessing, and could hurt him in a race against less heterodox Tea Party senate sweethearts, such as Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio, who have yet to kick their campaigns into gear. And then there's Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and Fox News presenter popular with Iowa evangelicals, and ex-Texas governor Rick Perry, who now wears brainy spectacles.

If I were Mr Bush, and inclined to look over my right shoulder, I would keep my eye on Scott Walker, Wisconsin's governor. Mr Walker is almost tailor-made to prevail in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. A credibly conservative evangelical Christian (he's over there on the right with Messrs Paul and Cruz), Mr Walker has proved his capacity to vanquish Democrats first by laying low Wisconsin's public-sector unions in a noisy battle, and then by facing a recall and winning re-election in the face of an organised national campaign to avenge the union defeat. Though he is not exactly an electrifying presence, Mr Walker is a well-tested, articulate, union-slaying, budget-cutting exponent of conservative ideals that could appeal to both the pro-business party establishment and the Christian conservative grassroots. This race could get interesting.