Analysis: UNLV basketball at midway point of conference season

UNLV closed out the first half of its Mountain West schedule with a loss to San Diego State on Sunday, and as disappointed as the Rebels were in defeat, the team has made major strides to this point in the 2019-20 campaign.

Here’s what we’ve learned about the Runnin’ Rebels through the first half of conference play:

Otzelberger can coach offense

It took a couple months, but new head coach T.J. Otzelberger is living up to his reputation as one of the best offensive minds in the country.

The current roster is made up players with mismatched skill sets, so they didn’t immediately take to Otzelberger’s system. Instead, Otzelberger adjusted his playbook to suit his players’ talents and the results have been good — and getting better as the season goes on.

After shooting 43.6 percent against San Diego State’s elite defense on Sunday, UNLV is now ranked No. 73 in KenPom.com’s adjusted offense; through nine Mountain West games, the Rebels are No. 2 in points per game (78.0) and No. 1 in free throw makes and attempts, and players such as Bryce Hamilton, Marvin Coleman and Mbacke Diong are all reaching new offensive heights under Otzelberger.

The offense is continuing to evolve and should be fun to track over the final nine games.

Hamilton is an all-league talent

One big reason why the offense is clicking now is the emergence of Bryce Hamilton as an All-Mountain West caliber player. He has started just one game in conference play (Sunday against SDSU), but he ranks No. 2 in the league in scoring (22.2 points per game), No. 1 in made field goals (75) and No. 3 in field goal percentage (55.1 percent), and his 35 points against New Mexico last week is the highest scoring game in the league this season.

Hamilton has found his niche in Otzelberger’s offense. He is getting to the basket with authority and also working in his mid-range game without sacrificing efficiency. Nine games isn’t a huge sample size, but it sure looks like Hamilton has unlocked something. UNLV can count on him as a high-level scorer from now on.

Fans are coming back

UNLV drew an announced attendance of 12,287 on Sunday, which was by far the biggest crowd of the season. And while that’s to be expected when hosting the No. 4 team in the nation, it wasn’t just that one game that showed an increased interest in the Runnin’ Rebels this year.

The team drew around 7,500 fans in each of its first three MWC home games this year, but a 5-1 start seemed to get the attention of the faithful. The Jan. 18 game against New Mexico drew a healthy 9,022, and then that spiked even further with the SDSU game. And it hasn’t just been the size of the crowds — fans have been louder and more engaged during the action than they have been in years.

This is a likable, competitive team, and Las Vegans seem to be responding to that. The Rebels fan base may have gone dormant during the tail end of Dave Rice’s tenure and the entirety of Marvin Menzies’ time in charge, but they are clearly starved for a winner and starting to come back.

Shooting is an issue

UNLV’s season-long improvement on offense is admirable, but the Rebels won’t challenge for the NCAA Tournament until they upgrade their outside shooting.

Otzelberger’s offense is based on stretching the court and creating space for driving/passing lanes, but until defenses respect UNLV’s ability to shoot from beyond that arc that space is going to be hard to come by. Right now, opponents have no reason to believe the Rebels are capable of hurting them with 3-pointers. Among the 11 Mountain West teams, UNLV ranks No. 10 in 3-point accuracy (30.1 percent) and No. 9 in 3-pointers made (68).

Otzelberger is already in the process of addressing this issue. Sit-out transfers David Jenkins and Moses Wood are both plus-shooters and they’ll be eligible next year, and the incoming recruiting class was put together with an emphasis on knocking down shots. But for the next nine games, UNLV is going to have to continue figuring out a way to score without the benefit of a consistent 3-point threat.

Defense has a long way to go

Shooting isn’t the only area in which the current roster is lacking. While the offense has picked up over the course of the year, the team is trending downward defensively. UNLV currently ranks No. 197 in KenPom.com’s adjusted defense and No. 299 in points per possession allowed. Among conference teams, the Rebels are 10th in forcing turnover, 11th in free throws allowed and ninth in 3-pointers made.

Center Mbacke Diong is the only player on the roster with a good defensive rating (95.9), and Marvin Coleman is around average (101.0). The rest of the Rebels struggle to contain penetration and stay connected away from the ball. Otzelberger managed to cover up some of those weaknesses by stressing a effort and imposing a slower tempo earlier in the season, but those were short-term fixes.

Going forward, UNLV won’t be a consistent Mountain West contender until it upgrades its length, quickness and overall talent level on the defensive end of the floor.

UNLV is a year away

With an improving and efficient offense, UNLV can beat anyone in the Mountain West on any given night — the Rebels have proven that by beating Utah State and nearly knocking off San Diego State. But due to their limitations — namely, shooting and defense — they can also be blown out on nights when their shots don’t fall, like they were in a 14-point loss at UNR last week.

That has been enough to get UNLV to 6-3 at the midway point and tied for second place in the league standings, and it might be enough to make the MWC tournament interesting, but the program is probably still a year away from being a legitimate contender for the conference crown.

For now, the Rebels have shown over the first half of the Mountain West season that they’re a fun team that will play hard, get the crowd going and beat its share of league opponents. Considering preseason expectations, the program is ahead of schedule.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.

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