Last week, IGN's Colin Moriarty published an opinion piece suggesting that the PS3 will beat the Xbox 360 before this generation is over. Citing worldwide averages and conjecture of lifetime sales, Colin makes a compelling argument, stating that the 360's year head start is the main reason for the system's lead over the PS3. However, as he said, you can't ignore the numbers, so let's take a look at what they really say.

With+October+hardware+sales+up+20+percent+from+last+year,+the+Xbox+360+is+not+on+the+decline.

Exclusive+franchises+like+Gears+of+War+continue+to+sell+extremely+well+on+Xbox+360.

For sure, some of the 360's current lead in sales versus the PS3 can be attributed to launching a year sooner; but what that argument doesn't mention is the fact that the system was able to achieve more than just a market share handicap; it was real estate in the gaming community. People rushed out to buy the 360 because it was the next big thing, the first HD console, and the first next-gen home to stellar games like the Call of Duty franchise (on console, at least), The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion, and other great titles.These early adopters backed the Xbox 360's horse from the beginning, and as Xbox Live continues to build an active and dedicated online community, the system's growth hasn't slowed. According to NPD sales data released two weeks ago, October 2011 sales data showed Xbox 360 hardware up more than 20 percent from last year, with the system poised to be the best-selling console of the year, holding more than 40 percent of the current-generation market share.Also in speaking on that year head start, let's look at the time period when the 360 launched. The system's most expensive SKU came out with a $400 price tag; not very cheap, but considerably less than the top of the line PS3 which came out at $600 in the US a year later. First year sales peg each platform at around the 6 million mark with a slight edge going to the PS3, but that can be attributed to supply outstripping demand at the Xbox 360's launch, and the PS3's position in the market at the cheapest Blu-ray player at the time. A look at tie ratios, or the number of games sold per system sold, for the first 23 months of each system's availability, shows the PS3 with 5.3 games per console sold (in third place behind the Wii) and the Xbox 360 with 6.6. It's also worth noting that at the time of the report (the PS3's 23rd month of availability), the Xbox 360 had an impressive tie ratio of 8.1. While each launch had similar unit sales, it's clear that Xbox 360 owners bought more games.Had the tables been turned and the PS3 launched first in 2005 instead of the Xbox 360, would their head start have fared better than Microsoft's? Considering that the strength of the PS3's launch relied heavily on its ability to play Blu-ray movies, it's likely not. Here's why; by April 2007, HDTV ownership in American households jumped to a whopping 28 percent, thanks to some aggressive holiday 2006 pricing. Considering that Blu-ray films won't give you any additional benefit when watching on a standard def television and the aforementioned lower tie ratio, it can be safe to assume that many of the early adopters who snagged a PS3 in that early window simply wanted a cheap(er) way to watch high-def movie content on their new HDTV. Had the PS3 launched in 2005 without the support of the HDTV surge, it simply wouldn't have fared nearly as well; real estate as the first HD gaming console or not, it simply wasn't worth the $600 investment for many non-HD gamers.Another big point of contention when it comes to the PS3 pulling ahead of the Xbox 360 is console exclusives. Sony has come a long way this generation, offering up some amazing new IP. However, let's turn again to the numbers to see who has really pulled ahead in this particular race. A quick polling of the top 50 games for each platform reveals that the PS3 has 16 exclusives on the list, with total sales of 57.09 million units worldwide of those exclusives. The Xbox 360 has one less at 15 on its top 50 list; but the total sales of these exclusives hits 82.23 million units; a considerable spread.It's no secret that the Xbox 360 has struggled in Japan. To be sure, the system has failed to gain any foothold in the Japanese market whatsoever, and has been vastly outshined by other platforms. However, the Japanese market in general seems to be shying away from consoles and gaming as a whole has been floundering in the land of the rising sun. As of April this year, the PS3 had sold 6.3 million units total in Japan compared to the Xbox 360's 1.4 million; a healthy margin, but a drop in the bucket compared to worldwide sales where each system has sold well over 50 million units.While the PS3 has made some great gains in this console generations, having fought against poor decisions early on and some general marketing mismanagement, the Xbox 360 still looks to be the top dog in the battle of this generation of HD consoles.