Deace predicts Bachmann straw poll win

Iowa talk radio host Steve Deace, a prominent Huckabee ally from 2008, forecasts the 2012 candidates will finish in this order at Ames: Michele Bachmann (21 percent), Ron Paul (18 percent), Tim Pawlenty (15 percent), Rick Santorum (13 percent), Herman Cain (9 percent), Mitt Romney (8 percent), Rick Perry (7 percent), Newt Gingrich (4 percent), Sarah Palin (3 percent), Thaddeus McCotter (1 percent), Jon Huntsman (1 percent).


There's a sense among some that Tim Pawlenty has picked himself up off the mat in recent weeks and taken the fight to Bachmann in an effective way. Deace isn't so sure:

She is clearly the favorite right now, but she faces a real test in Thursday’s pre-Straw Poll debate hosted by Fox News. Barring journalistic malfeasance, she’s going to be asked about signing the controversial FAMiLY LEADER marriage pledge, as well as her husband working to deliver those ensnared by homosexuality via Christian counseling so that they may live the lives God originally created them to live. How she responds to that questioning could very well determine Saturday’s results. If she has a Tim Pawlenty moment of uncertainty, like her fellow Minnesotan had when invited to confront Mitt Romney on Romneycare during the last New Hampshire debate, then the outcome on Saturday will also be uncertain. On the other hand, if she stands her ground then the mystery isn’t whether or not she’ll win, but by how much ... [Tim Pawlenty] just never caught on for various reasons, despite being the person who worked Iowa the hardest and the most. There have already been articles pointing fingers at whom or what is to blame for that, which is never a good omen. I believe he has to win the Straw Poll to justify hanging around given the looming entrance of Rick Perry and perhaps Sarah Palin.

Romney, whom Deace trashed throughout 2008, is also "the toughest for me to predict" in the straw poll, the radio talker writes, "because there is still a cache of loyal supporters there despite his avoidance of Iowa."