Introduction

Welcome to this analysis of the attempted murder of Bran Stark in A Game of Thrones, where we will examine the players involved in this tragic event, as well as the circumstances that both shaped the primary antagonist who hired the assassin and the circumstances that were shaped by the events they caused. Like many of the mysteries in A Song of Ice and Fire, the solution to the question of “Who was the culprit” is one of much controversy. Despite the fact that the books clearly provide us with a solution that both satisfies the hints, clues, and foreshadowing in the story, but also can be explained by characterizations we see throughout the novels, many in the fandom continue to look to other explanations that the text clearly refutes. Here we conclusively show who orchestrated the attack on Bran Stark, why they did it, and what led them to make this foul decision.

The Crime

In A Game of Thrones – Catelyn III, Robb and Catelyn Stark are arguing about a comatose Bran, in the wake of his “fall” from the Broken Tower, when Robb notices that there’s a fire across the yard in the Library Tower. He tells Cat to stay there with Bran and hurries out to investigate the source of the fire and help to douse it. After he leaves, an assassin, referred to as The Catspaw, enters the room with the intention of killing Bran:

When she turned away from the window, the man was in the room with her. “You weren’t s’posed to be here,” he muttered sourly. “No one was s’posed to be here.” He was a small, dirty man in filthy brown clothing, and he stank of horses. Catelyn knew all the men who worked in their stables, and he was none of them. He was gaunt, with limp blond hair and pale eyes deep-sunk in a bony face, and there was a dagger in his hand. Catelyn looked at the knife, then at Bran. “No,” she said. The word stuck in her throat, the merest whisper. He must have heard her. “It’s a mercy,” he said. “He’s dead already.”

Here we are treated to our first clues as to the identity of our assassin and the conspiracy behind his attack. First, it’s clear that the fire in the Library Tower was meant as a distraction that would clear the room of all but the target. This explains the killer’s statement to Catelyn that she “wasn’t supposed to be there.” Second, he is dirty and smells of horses, though Catelyn immediately knows that he doesn’t work in Winterfell’s stables. Third, the assassin gives us a motive behind the attempt: “It’s a mercy” and “He’s dead already.”

The catspaw attacks Catelyn, who fends him off with a desperate fury, even grasping the blade of the dagger with her hands and biting at his palm with her teeth as he covers her mouth. When he knocks her to the ground and moves to finish her off, Bran’s direwolf bounds through the door and leaps on him, tearing out his throat and killing him. After having her wounds tended to, Catelyn sleeps for four days. When she finally awakens, she immediately wants to know about the would-be assassin:

“Who was he?” Catelyn asked them. “No one knows his name,” Hallis Mollen told her. “He was no man of Winterfell, m’lady, but some says they seen him here and about the castle these past few weeks.” “One of the king’s men, then,” she said, “or one of the Lannisters’. He could have waited behind when the others left.” “Maybe,” Hal said. “With all these strangers filling up Winterfell of late, there’s no way of saying who he belonged to.” “He’d been hiding in your stables,” Greyjoy said. “You could smell it on him.” “And how could he go unnoticed?” she said sharply. Hallis Mollen looked abashed. “Between the horses Lord Eddard took south and them we sent north to the Night’s Watch, the stalls were half-empty. It were no great trick to hide from the stableboys. Could be Hodor saw him, the talk is that boy’s been acting queer, but simple as he is …” Hal shook his head. “We found where he’d been sleeping,” Robb put in. “He had ninety silver stags in a leather bag buried beneath the straw.” “It’s good to know my son’s life was not sold cheaply,” Catelyn said bitterly. Hallis Mollen looked at her, confused. “Begging your grace, m’lady, you saying he was out to kill your boy?” Greyjoy was doubtful. “That’s madness.” “He came for Bran,” Catelyn said. “He kept muttering how I wasn’t supposed to be there. He set the library fire thinking I would rush to put it out, taking any guards with me. If I hadn’t been half-mad with grief, it would have worked.” “Why would anyone want to kill Bran?” Robb said. “Gods, he’s only a little boy, helpless, sleeping …” Catelyn gave her firstborn a challenging look. “If you are to rule in the north, you must think these things through, Robb. Answer your own question. Why would anyone want to kill a sleeping child?”

This excerpt is littered with clues for us to remember, and it also contains our primary question, as posed by Robb: “Why would anyone want to kill Bran?”

We as readers, of course, know more than our protagonists at this point. In fact, there’s little doubt that Martin’s intention is to have us suspect the Lannisters – Jaime and/or Cersei in particular – almost immediately. However, let’s notate our new clues and continue to unravel this mystery. Here we find out:

the identity of the Catspaw was unknown to residents of Winterfell, and was certainly not a resident.

the people of Winterfell had noticed seeing him in the weeks prior to the attempted killing.

he had been hiding in the stables, which explained his smell to both Theon and Catelyn.

he was likely hired, given the bag of silver (ninety silver stags) found in a leather bag where he slept.

Robb then deduces what we as readers already suspect: That the catspaw was sent to silence Bran Stark, and he arranges for round the clock protection for his brother as he rests. Attention then turns to the would-be murder weapon – the dagger:

“Lady Stark,” Ser Rodrik said when the guardsman had gone, “did you chance to notice the dagger the killer used?” “The circumstances did not allow me to examine it closely, but I can vouch for its edge,” Catelyn replied with a dry smile. “Why do you ask?” “We found the knife still in the villain’s grasp. It seemed to me that it was altogether too fine a weapon for such a man, so I looked at it long and hard. The blade is Valyrian steel, the hilt dragonbone. A weapon like that has no business being in the hands of such as him. Someone gave it to him.”

The uniqueness of the blade used in the attempt becomes our best clue to solving the crime. But to do that, we need to find out how a Valyrian steel dagger ends up in the hands of a filthy, horse-smelling catspaw in Winterfell in the first place.

Chain of Custody Pt. I

The Red Herring

When Catelyn Stark brings the murder weapon to King’s Landing to trace its origin, she is escorted to Littlefinger, who informs her that Varys’ little birds knew of her arrival brought her to him. There is one thing he doesn’t know, though:

“Lord Varys knows everything … except why you are here.” He lifted an eyebrow. “Why are you here?”

This question is our first hint, along with the inherent logisitical issues, that Littlefinger not only did not send the catspaw to assassinate Bran, but he also has no idea it even happened. When Varys arrives to join them, he gives his condolences to Lady Stark for Bran’s condition (from “falling” from the tower) and then stuns her and confuses Littlefinger with his knowledge of the catspaw’s dagger:

“Lord Baelish tells me that I have you to thank for bringing me here.” Varys giggled like a little girl. “Oh, yes. I suppose I am guilty. I hope you forgive me, kind lady.” He eased himself down into a seat and put his hands together. “I wonder if we might trouble you to show us the dagger?” Catelyn Stark stared at the eunuch in stunned disbelief. He was a spider, she thought wildly, an enchanter or worse. He knew things no one could possibly know, unless … “What have you done to Ser Rodrik?” she demanded. Littlefinger was lost. “I feel rather like the knight who arrives at the battle without his lance. What dagger are we talking about? Who is Ser Rodrik?”

Varys reveals the source of his information – Ser Roderik had a conversation about the dagger with King’s Landing Master-at-Arms Aron Santagar, and his little birds heard – but does not offer up any information about the dagger’s owner. Instead, it’s Littlefinger who provides her with an answer:

You want to find the owner, is that the reason for this visit? You have no need of Ser Aron for that, my lady. You should have come to me.” “And if I had,” she said, “what would you have told me?” “I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King’s Landing.” He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. “It’s mine.” “Yours?” It made no sense. Petyr had not been at Winterfell. “Until the tourney on Prince Joffrey’s name day,” he said, crossing the room to wrench the dagger from the wood. “I backed Ser Jaime in the jousting, along with half the court.” Petyr’s sheepish grin made him look half a boy again. “When Loras Tyrell unhorsed him, many of us became a trifle poorer. Ser Jaime lost a hundred golden dragons, the queen lost an emerald pendant, and I lost my knife. Her Grace got the emerald back, but the winner kept the rest.” “Who?” Catelyn demanded, her mouth dry with fear. Her fingers ached with remembered pain. “The Imp,” said Littlefinger as Lord Varys watched her face. “Tyrion Lannister.”

Tyrion Lannister? The implication that the catspaw was sent by the Imp comes out of left field and certainly doesn’t fit well with our initial impression that Cersei or Jaime hired the assassin to silence Bran about what he saw. We know from what happens in our story – Catelyn’s arrest of Tyrion and subsequent trial by combat at the Eyrie – that this implied accusation by Littlefinger sets into motion a chain of events that would greatly contribute to the War of the Five Kings… but was Tyrion responsible for sending the catspaw? The answer is no – but it’s also the wrong question. The right question, as it happens, is whether Littlefinger is being honest about the dagger belonging to Tyrion at all. Soon after Catelyn captures Tyrion, adamantly denies any knowledge of the attempted slaying:

“I tell you again, I had no part in the attempt to kill your son.” “The assassin was armed with your dagger.” Tyrion felt the heat rise in him. “It was not my dagger,” he insisted. “How many times must I swear to that? Lady Stark, whatever you may believe of me, I am not a stupid man. Only a fool would arm a common footpad with his own blade.” Just for a moment, he thought he saw a flicker of doubt in her eyes, but what she said was, “Why would Petyr lie to me?” “Why does a bear shit in the woods?” he demanded. “Because it is his nature. Lying comes as easily as breathing to a man like Littlefinger.

Of course, he’s right about Littlefinger. We’ve read the books, we know what he’s done. And within the context of Littlefinger’s scheme to pit Stark against Lannister and bring about the chaos that would rip the realm apart, it makes sense that he would imply Tyrion’s guilt by telling Catelyn it was the Imp’s dagger. As the man who arranged for Lysa Arryn to send a false accusation of Lannister guilt in the killing of Jon Arryn to her sister Cat in A Game of Thrones, we can see how one would expect Catelyn to accept Petyr’s naming of Tyrion as the dagger’s owner at face value, since it’s exactly what she wanted to hear. Catelyn had already presumed guilt of the Lannisters in her son’s attempted murder before leaving Winterfell for King’s Landing, based upon her sister’s false testimony via raven – and Littlefinger would have anticipated just that.

Let’s also remember that when Catelyn presented the dagger to Varys and Littlefinger, neither of them knew that Bran had been attacked by the catspaw. She did not reveal this information to them, and only a handful of people in Winterfell even knew it had happened. There are many people who believe, against all evidence, that Littlefinger was behind the catspaw. Not only is this logistically virtually impossible, given his location, but he clearly had no idea when Cat came to King’s Landing. What he was sure of, based on the implied secrecy of her arrival, her suspicion of Varys’ knowledge, her knife wounds on her hands, and her inquiry about the dagger’s owner, was that something nefarious had happened involving that dagger and this was an opportunity to further his current agenda with very little extra effort. Naming Tyrion was clever, if a little short sighted (as we’ll see here shortly). So, if not Tyrion, then who?

Chain of Custody Pt. II:

The Truth About the Dagger

In A Game of Thrones – Tyrion IV, Littlefinger’s lie begins to unravel. Right before their party is attacked, Tyrion continues his denial to Lady Stark:

Tyrion took a deep breath. “How did Littlefinger tell you I came by this dagger of his? Answer me that.” “You won it from him in a wager, during the tourney on Prince Joffrey’s name day.” “When my brother Jaime was unhorsed by the Knight of Flowers, that was his story, no?” “It was,” she admitted. A line creased her brow.

Her brow creases because she realizes what Tyrion then informs her after they fight off the attack:

“As I was saying before we were so rudely interrupted,” Tyrion began, “there is a serious flaw in Littlefinger’s fable. Whatever you may believe of me, Lady Stark, I promise you this—I never bet against my family.”

Littlefinger lied about losing the dagger to Tyrion. This is again confirmed by Jaime in A Clash of Kings – Catelyn VII who also reveals the actual winner of the dagger:

“Then why did the assassin have his dagger?” “What dagger was this?” “It was so long,” she said, holding her hands apart, “plain, but finely made, with a blade of Valyrian steel and a dragonbone hilt. Your brother won it from Lord Baelish at the tourney on Prince Joffrey’s name day.” Lannister poured, drank, poured, and stared into his wine cup. “This wine seems to be improving as I drink it. Imagine that. I seem to remember that dagger, now that you describe it. Won it, you say? How?” “Wagering on you when you tilted against the Knight of Flowers.” Yet when she heard her own words Catelyn knew she had gotten it wrong. “No… was it the other way?” “Tyrion always backed me in the lists,” Jaime said, “but that day Ser Loras unhorsed me. A mischance, I took the boy too lightly, but no matter. Whatever my brother wagered, he lost… but that dagger did change hands, I recall it now. Robert showed it to me that night at the feast. His Grace loved to salt my wounds, especially when drunk. And when was he not drunk?” Tyrion Lannister had said much the same thing as they rode through the Mountains of the Moon, Catelyn remembered. She had refused to believe him. Petyr had sworn otherwise, Petyr who had been almost a brother, Petyr who loved her so much he fought a duel for her hand… and yet if Jaime and Tyrion told the same tale, what did that mean? The brothers had not seen each other since departing Winterfell more than a year ago.

Finally, we have the truth about the owner of the dagger, prior to it being given to the assassin for use in his murder of Bran. Also, Robert having the dagger explains how it got to Winterfell. While there are more clues from A Game of Thrones and A Clash of Kings that we can point to that might help to reveal who might have been behind the attack, we will save some of those for a later argument and instead move ahead to A Storm of Swords, where two of our characters independantly arrive at the same conclusion.

The Culprit

In A Storm of Swords we get the solution to our mystery, just as Martin promised we would. We learn from Jaime and Cersei why Joffrey did it, and we get some damning circumstantial evidence from Tyrion.

When Tywin Lannister presents the newly reforged blade to Joffrey as a wedding gift, you’ll notice that Joffrey doesn’t recognize that it’s Valyrian steel.

Lord Tywin waited until last to present the king with his own gift: a longsword. Its scabbard was made of cherrywood, gold, and oiled red leather, studded with golden lions’ heads. The lions had ruby eyes, she saw. The ballroom fell silent as Joffrey unsheathed the blade and thrust the sword above his head. Red and black ripples in the steel shimmered in the morning light. “Magnificent,” declared Mathis Rowan. “A sword to sing of, sire,” said Lord Redwyne. “A king’s sword,” said Ser Kevan Lannister. King Joffrey looked as if he wanted to kill someone right then and there, he was so excited. He slashed at the air and laughed. “A great sword must have a great name, my lords! What shall I call it?” Sansa remembered Lion’s Tooth, the sword Arya had flung into the Trident, and Hearteater, the one he’d made her kiss before the battle. She wondered if he’d want Margaery to kiss this one. The guests were shouting out names for the new blade. Joff dismissed a dozen before he heard one he liked. “Widow’s Wail!” he cried. “Yes! It shall make many a widow, too!” He slashed again. “And when I face my uncle Stannis it will break his magic sword clean in two.” Joff tried a downcut, forcing Ser Balon Swann to take a hasty step backward. Laughter rang through the hall at the look on Ser Balon’s face.

However, once Ser Addam mentions it to Joffrey, he immediately reveals a couple of interesting clues for our case. An astute reader will notice the same thing that Tyrion notices:

“Have a care, Your Grace,” Ser Addam Marbrand warned the king. “Valyrian steel is perilously sharp.” “I remember.” Joffrey brought Widow’s Wail down in a savage two-handed slice, onto the book that Tyrion had given him. The heavy leather cover parted at a stroke. “Sharp! I told you, I am no stranger to Valyrian steel.”

With suspicion on his mind, Tyrion then decides to bring up the dagger found in the possession of the catspaw, to see how Joffrey reacts:

Tyrion was staring at his nephew with his mismatched eyes. “Perhaps a knife, sire. To match your sword. A dagger of the same fine Valyrian steel . . . with a dragonbone hilt, say?” Joff gave him a sharp look. “You . . . yes, a dagger to match my sword, good.” He nodded. “A . . . a gold hilt with rubies in it. Dragonbone is too plain.”

Joffrey reacts exactly the way you’d expect a guilty person to react and Tyrion realizes exactly what had occurred:

I am no stranger to Valyrian steel, the boy had boasted. He ought to have seen it long ago. Jaime would never send another man to do his killing, and Cersei was too cunning to use a knife that could be traced back to her, but Joff, arrogant vicious stupid little wretch that he was . . . He remembered a cold morning when he’d climbed down the steep exterior steps from Winterfell’s library to find Prince Joffrey jesting with the Hound about killing wolves. Send a dog to kill a wolf, he said. Even Joffrey was not so foolish as to command Sandor Clegane to slay a son of Eddard Stark, however; the Hound would have gone to Cersei. Instead the boy found his catspaw among the unsavory lot of freeriders, merchants, and camp followers who’d attached themselves to the king’s party as they made their way north. Some poxy lackwit willing to risk his life for a prince’s favor and a little coin. Tyrion wondered whose idea it had been to wait until Robert left Winterfell before opening Bran’s throat. Joff’s, most like. No doubt he thought it was the height of cunning. The prince’s own dagger had a jeweled pommel and inlaid goldwork on the blade, Tyrion seemed to recall. At least Joff had not been stupid enough to use that. Instead he went poking among his father’s weapons. Robert Baratheon was a man of careless generosity, and would have given his son any dagger he wanted . . . but Tyrion guessed that the boy had just taken it. Robert had come to Winterfell with a long tail of knights and retainers, a huge wheelhouse, and a baggage train. No doubt some diligent servant had made certain that the king’s weapons went with him, in case he should desire any of them. The blade Joff chose was nice and plain. No goldwork, no jewels in the hilt, no silver inlay on the blade. King Robert never wore it, had likely forgotten he owned it. Yet the Valyrian steel was deadly sharp . . . sharp enough to slice through skin, flesh, and muscle in one quick stroke. I am no stranger to Valyrian steel. But he had been, hadn’t he? Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick Littlefinger’s knife.

Just like when Joffrey had no idea that Widow’s Wail was a Valyrian steel sword, he had no idea that the dagger was either. What he chose was what he thought was an unremarkable, plain knife – and one that could be traced back to his father, should anything go wrong. The idiocy of the plan was not in the broad strokes, as many have claimed – it was in the details. Tyrion had figured out almost everything. Well, almost:

The why of it still eluded him. Simple cruelty, perhaps?

For that, we turn to Cersei and Jaime. In A Storm of Swords – Jaime IX the twins discuss the assassination attempt for the first time since they have reunited in the wake of the War of the Five Kings. They go from wondering if the other one had sent the catspaw, to deducing not only who it was, but why:

Jaime suddenly remembered something else that troubled him about Winterfell. “At Riverrun, Catelyn Stark seemed convinced I’d sent some footpad to slit her son’s throat. That I’d given him a dagger.” “That,” she said scornfully. “Tyrion asked me about that.” “There was a dagger. The scars on Lady Catelyn’s hands were real enough, she showed them to me. Did you . . . ?” “Oh, don’t be absurd.” Cersei closed the window. “Yes, I hoped the boy would die. So did you. Even Robert thought that would have been for the best. ‘We kill our horses when they break a leg, and our dogs when they go blind, but we are too weak to give the same mercy to crippled children,’ he told me. He was blind himself at the time, from drink.” Robert? Jaime had guarded the king long enough to know that Robert Baratheon said things in his cups that he would have denied angrily the next day. “Were you alone when Robert said this?” “You don’t think he said it to Ned Stark, I hope? Of course we were alone. Us and the children.” Cersei removed her hairnet and draped it over a bedpost, then shook out her golden curls. “Perhaps Myrcella sent this man with the dagger, do you think so?” It was meant as mockery, but she’d cut right to the heart of it, Jaime saw at once. “Not Myrcella. Joffrey.” Cersei frowned. “Joffrey had no love for Robb Stark, but the younger boy was nothing to him. He was only a child himself.” “A child hungry for a pat on the head from that sot you let him believe was his father.”

Tyrion figures out that Joffrey took a plain looking dagger from Robert’s baggage train and hired a catspaw among the freeriders, merchants, and camp followers attached to the King’s party for the journey to Winterfell. Jaime, in a conversation with Cersei, deduces that Joffrey overheard Robert talk about how killing Bran would be a mercy and believes that Joffrey desired a “pat on the head” from Baratheon. Let’s explore these conclusions, and see if there’s support in the text.

Joffrey and Robert Baratheon:

An Analysis of Father and Son

To understand why Joffrey would hear a drunken Robert Baratheon say “We kill our horses when they break a leg, and our dogs when they go blind, but we are too weak to give the same mercy to crippled children” and decide to provide a catspaw with a dagger and coin and a mission to murder Bran Stark, we need to understand Joffrey Baratheon as a person. Much of the confusion and denial about his involvement in this attempt is, in my opinion, colored by this very lack of understanding.

Joffrey, the first born son of Cersei and Jaime Lannister, is the product of incest and terrible parenting. His main influences were his mother and his mostly-absent “father” Robert. Cersei Lannister only really loves Jaime and her children, but she loves them all more as an extension of herself. She provided Joffrey with little in the way of sound guidance or consistent discipline, while Robert – Joffrey’s father in all but genetics – is essentially an absentee parent. Spending most of his time hunting and whoring, while only understanding his son on a basic level, Robert’s inattentiveness caused Joffrey to create an idealized image of him. So Joffrey doesn’t respect Robert. He barely knew Robert. What Joffrey respects is the legend of Robert Baratheon, the only version he knows. He responds to the myth of Robert as the great and noble warrior and crusading rebel who smashed the Targaryen Dynasty, conquered Westeros, and became King

My father won all the battles. He killed Prince Rhaegar and took the crown, while your father was hiding under Casterly Rock.” The boy gave his grandfather a defiant look. “A strong king acts boldly, he doesn’t just talk.”

Small wonder he reacted the way he did when he overheard his father talking about Bran. Because a strong king acts boldly, he doesn’t just talk. No doubt Joffrey has come to resent the man his father has become, still holding to that idealized image of Robert from the rebellion, and now using that logic to correct Robert’s mistakes – which is exactly what the hiring of the catspaw was. Joffrey can no longer apologize for his father, and the ideal is likely getting harder and harder to remember. But in a situation like that, with an absentee father, and a son who can’t seem to get the attention he craves, anyone in psychology will tell you that often that person will only try harder to gain the elusive approval they need.

“Joffrey . . . I (Stannis) remember once, this kitchen cat . . . the cooks were wont to feed her scraps and fish heads. One told the boy that she had kittens in her belly, thinking he might want one. Joffrey opened up the poor thing with a dagger to see if it were true. When he found the kittens, he brought them to show to his father. Robert hit the boy so hard I thought he’d killed him.”

Joffrey has no doubt witnessed this violence on many occasions – and not just towards him, but also his mother.

King Robert had grown louder with each course. From time to time Sansa could hear him laughing or roaring a command over the music and the clangor of plates and cutlery, but they were too far away for her to make out his words. Now everybody heard him. “No,” he thundered in a voice that drowned out all other speech. Sansa was shocked to see the king on his feet, red of face, reeling. He had a goblet of wine in one hand, and he was drunk as a man could be. “You do not tell me what to do, woman,” he screamed at Queen Cersei. “I am king here, do you understand? I rule here, and if I say that I will fight tomorrow, I will fight!” He slapped his chest with the jeweled goblet, splashing wine all over his satin tunic. “Give me my hammer and not a man in the realm can stand before me!” Jaime Lannister rose and brushed himself off. “As you say, Your Grace.” His voice was stiff. Lord Renly came forward, smiling. “You’ve spilled your wine, Robert. Let me bring you a fresh goblet.” Sansa started as Joffrey laid his hand on her arm. “It grows late,” the prince said. He had a queer look on his face, as if he were not seeing her at all. “Do you need an escort back to the castle?” “No,” Sansa began. She looked for Septa Mordane, and was startled to find her with her head on the table, snoring soft and ladylike snores. “I mean to say … yes, thank you, that would be most kind. I am tired, and the way is so dark. I should be glad for some protection.” Joffrey called out, “Dog!” Sandor Clegane seemed to take form out of the night, so quickly did he appear. He had exchanged his armor for a red woolen tunic with a leather dog’s head sewn on the front. The light of the torches made his burned face shine a dull red. “Yes, Your Grace?” he said. “Take my betrothed back to the castle, and see that no harm befalls her,” the prince told him brusquely. And without even a word of farewell, Joffrey strode off, leaving her there.

Notice how Joffrey appears to be not only distant, but also numb to this kind of exchange, as well as appearing to want to flee from the situation as soon as possible. One would think that he would hate Robert after watching this abuse for years, but again, psychology doesn’t always play out like one would expect. I suspect that, like many children of abusive parents, Joff ends up identifying with the abuser. Psychologically, this makes sense. The abuser is seen as the person who is victorious, the person who doesn’t get hurt. So the kid naturally wants to ally themselves with that abuser, as a means of a defense mechanism. Joffrey learns from Robert that might makes right, and the strong rule the weak

Neither of his parents are capable of admitting fault, however. In fact, Robert has no frame of reference on how Joffrey ended up the way he did. All he knows is that it’s too late to fix it.

I have dreamed of giving up the crown. Take ship for the Free Cities with my horse and my hammer, spend my time warring and whoring, that’s what I was made for. The sellsword king, how the singers would love me. You know what stops me? The thought of Joffrey on the throne, with Cersei standing behind him whispering in his ear. My son. How could I have made a son like that, Ned? … You don’t know him as I do.”

Joffrey became a monster, and everyone knows it.

“Not Robert the Second. Aerys the Third.” “Joffrey is truly a little shit.”

The little shit who tried to have Bran Stark killed. And the reason he did it is one that makes me sympathize with him! How’s that for irony? In fact, a lot of people think that Joffrey as the “mastermind” behind the attempted assassination is bad writing. I couldn’t disagree more, and I hope that this essay has helped to explain why GRRM’s choice is here is actually incredibly nuanced and deep – and without Joffrey being responsible for this heinous act, we would not get to see all this psychological trauma he faced rear it’s ugly head in a way that is purposeful to the narrative. To sum it up – Joffrey hiring the catspaw is a great choice by the author, because it ties together all the subtle inferences in the books about the parenting of Robert and Cersei, the monstrosity of Joffrey Baratheon, and the tragedy of Bran’s circumstances into a tightly wound mystery with multiple red herrings and a solution that continues to be argued long after the reveal has happened.

Debunking Debunkers

Even though the solution to the question “Who hired the catspaw to kill Bran” has clear and easily explainable answer, complete with a three-part reveal in A Storm of Swords, fans continue to argue about who else it could have been. Even once it’s agreed that it was Joffrey, others argue that Joffrey being the culprit is a bad choice, or poor writing. Here in this section, we’ll take a look at some common rebuttals, and explain the answers to them.

It does not take a Valyrian Steel knife to kill a comatosed boy.

This is a straw man argument. Joffrey did not know that he chose a Valyrian steel dagger. In fact, he likely chose the dagger that looked the most plain of all the daggers. Remember this quote that I used above:

The blade Joff chose was nice and plain. No goldwork, no jewels in the hilt, no silver inlay on the blade. King Robert never wore it, had likely forgotten he owned it. Yet the Valyrian steel was deadly sharp . . . sharp enough to slice through skin, flesh, and muscle in one quick stroke.

Joffrey chose the dagger he did for two reasons:

it likely appeared to be the most ordinary in the supply King Robert had, which meant it wasn’t likely (in his opinion) to be traced back, should something go wrong.

If something were to go wrong, the dagger would be traced back to the royal baggage cart if at all. Meaning either way, Joffrey wouldn’t be implicated.

Obviously, given his youth and inexperience with Valyrian steel, he fails to recognize that the blade, because of it’s magical nature, is incredibly rarer than the other daggers by comparison. Such is the nature of an impulsive, short sighted decision such as the one that was made.

Littlefinger lied about the knife to Catelyn, so it was probably him

The idea that Littlefinger was behind the catspaw is a reasonably popular theory. Unfortunately, not only is it not true, it’s also a logistical nightmare. Consider that:

Littlefinger was not in Winterfell at the time of Bran’s fall from the Broken Tower, and thus didn’t find out about it until it was too late to do anything about it.

He lost the dagger to King Robert prior to the King’s journey to Winterfell, and therefore no longer had access to it.

Even if Littlefinger wanted to hire a catspaw to assassinate the boy who he had no idea was bedridden, he would have no way of communicating with a dirty, horse-smelling man sleeping in the Winterfell stables. No ravens are trained to fly directly to the weird guy sleeping with the horses (who most assuredly can’t read anyway) nor can they carry a pouch with 90 silver stags.

Littlefinger either had to idea that the catspaw had been hired until Catelyn came to King’s Landing, or he fakes surprise well enough to fool Catelyn and Varys.

Littlefinger clearly came up with Tyrion’s name as the owner of the dagger off the top of his head, because it was such an easy lie to disprove. He was lucky that Catelyn took his word at face value, considering the other person in the room, Varys, likely knew he was lying immediately.

Honestly, I could go on, but is it really necessary? One final thing, however, in reference to the specific question at hand – Littlefinger’s lie about Tyrion – If we assume that Littlefinger set the whole thing up so that he could lie and say it was Tyrion’s dagger, then we have to assume that Littlefinger meant for the catspaw to fail, otherwise the dagger would never have been found. So, either way it makes no sense.

Why did Littlefinger tell them to stop seeking out Santagar?

This assertion kind of pisses me off, because not only is it ignorant of the facts, but it appears to be a willful falsehood, meant to prop up the weak claim that Littlefinger was behind the catspaw. Because, why would Littlefinger try to stop Catelyn from talking to the King’s Landing master at arms (Aron Santagar) unless he was hiding his involvement? The answer is, Littlefinger didn’t do anything like that! Here’s a quote from Varys, while he, Littlefinger, and Catelyn are alone and talking about the dagger and Littlefinger has asked “Who is Ser Rodrik Cassel?”

“Ser Rodrik Cassel is master-at-arms at Winterfell,” Varys informed him. “I assure you, Lady Stark, nothing at all has been done to the good knight. He did call here early this afternoon. He visited with Ser Aron Santagar in the armory, and they talked of a certain dagger. About sunset, they left the castle together and walked to that dreadful hovel where you were staying. They are still there, drinking in the common room, waiting for your return. Ser Rodrik was very distressed to find you gone.”

So, somehow, not only has Littlefinger completely fucked himself by not knowing who Rodrik Cassel is and letting him speak with Aron Santagar all day long, but he then goes on to say the line that people are referring to when they say he “told them to stop seeking out Santagar”:

You want to find the owner, is that the reason for this visit? You have no need of Ser Aron for that, my lady. You should have come to me.”

Oh yeah, that totally seems like manipulative obstruction. See how he is plotting to keep Aron Santagar away from Catelyn by suggesting they don’t need to speak to him? How utterly nefarious of him, especially considering Rodrik had been speaking to Santagar until sunset.

If Joffrey hired the catspaw to impress Robert, then why didn’t he tell him he had done it?

Uh.. because it was a botched job?

Another question to follow that up is usually “Well, why didn’t he tell him immediately after?”

I don’t know – maybe the same kid who was smart enough to try to pick out a non-descript dagger from a spot that wouldn’t trace back to him was also smart enough to wait for word that the assassination was a success before opening his big fat mouth?

Or, more likely, Joffrey felt that once Bran was killed, Robert – the man who said it would be a mercy to end his life – would look to Joffrey as the bold decision maker who executed his wishes and commence with loving him like he always should have. This kind of delusion-of-grandeur seems to be right up his alley. For someone with the kind of psychological damage that Joffrey has, looking desperately to Robert for approval and validation despite years of a negative feedback loop, we can’t expect that his expectations were grounded in reality.

Littlefinger sent an agent with the royal party with instruction. First, deliver the Myrish lens to Luwin’s observatory without being caught. Second, do SOMETHING with this Valyrian steel knife that make the Starks very upset

This is even stupider than trying to explain how Littlefinger communicated from King’s Landing via raven and somehow knew about Bran’s fall. Now we’re claiming that Littlefinger sent a guy with the dagger he lost to Robert already up to kill a random Stark and, ostendibly, pin it on the Lannisters. Here’s the huge gaping hole in this theory: Either Littlefinger plans on the assassin being successful, and the dagger is never found, which means there’s no way he can make the Lannisters look guilty, or he plans on the assassin being unsuccessful (which he can’t control remotely and I’m guessing the assassin wouldn’t agree to get his throat ripped out) and the dagger being found – in which case the dagger leads either back to him or to King Robert. I say “back to him” because once Ned and Robert compare notes, Ned’s going to find out that Robert had nothing to do with it. This whole “Littlefinger is somehow behind it, but we can’t figure out how or why” is really tiresome.

It doesn’t make sense that a Valyrian steel dagger would just be laying around – the Lannisters desperately wanted a Valyrian steel blade so there’s no way Joffrey would choose that one

Ok, first let’s fix the errors in this statement. First of all, it was Tywin that was vigilant about trying to acquire a Valyrian steel sword for the family, after Brightroar was lost. Secondly, Joffrey is, for all intents and purposes, not a Lannister! Also, the dagger didn’t even belong to a Lannister, it belonged to Robert. Finally, Joffrey was not familiar with Valyrian steel, so he didn’t notice the dagger was magical when he chose it. He was trying to choose the most ordinary looking dagger. So, I’m not quite sure what the relevance of this question is anymore, but I’ll answer it anyway. If you’re wondering why Robert Baratheon just let a Valyrian steel dagger get thrown in amongst the rest of his daggers, you need to understand how he felt about daggers in particular:

“If you have need of a dagger, take one from the armory. Robert left a hundred when he died. Gerion gave him a gilded dagger with an ivory grip and a sapphire pommel for a wedding gift, and half the envoys who came to court tried to curry favor by presenting His Grace with jewel-encrusted knives and silver inlay swords.” Tyrion smiled. “They’d have pleased him more if they’d presented him with their daughters.” “No doubt. The only blade he ever used was the hunting knife he had from Jon Arryn, when he was a boy.” Lord Tywin waved a hand, dismissing King Robert and all his knives.

Robert didn’t give a shit about any daggers except the one his surrogate father gave him. That was the only blade he used. Elsewise, he was known for his warhammer. So it makes perfect sense that the Valyrian steel dagger he had just won recently was just thrown in with his other hundred daggers in the baggage cart. That Robert Baratheon traveled in excess, carrying a hundred jeweled daggers he would never use, pretty much perfectly describes him, if you ask me.

In Closing

Look, I could sit here and scour Google, finding more and more objections to the obvious truth of Joffrey being the instigator, and I could explain why, in the end, they don’t add up. The catspaw was hired by Littlefinger, he wasn’t hired by Cersei or Jaime – which is clear almost immediately after it happens – and he wasn’t hired by Mance Rayder (a theory so off base, it only garnered a casual mention here at the end)

GRRM promised that A Storm of Swords would provide us with our answer in two separate SSMs:

You should know that even after all this time, we’re still debating things like who was behind the assassination attempt on Bran. Not to mention trying to figure out the four weddings, four trials, and two funeral. The problem with all this speculating is that some of you are bound to guess the answers before I reveal ’em… and others may even come up with better answers than I do. Well, those are the risks one takes with such a project. I will tell you that ASOS will resolve the question of Bran and the dagger, and also that of Jon Arryn’s killer. Some other questions will not be resolved… and hopefully I will give you a few new puzzles to worry at.

SSM

Do we the readers, after having read aGoT and aCoK, have enough information to plausibly be able to reason out who was behind the assassination plot against Bran? There’s a couple of additional things to be revealed in SOS… but I think the answer could be worked out from the first two books alone, yes… though of course, =I’ve= known the truth all along, so in some ways it’s hard for me to judge.

SSM

And lo and behold, in A Storm of Swords, both Jaime and Tyrion come to the same conclusion – that it was Joffrey. Furthermore, this conclusion is supported by a preponderance of the evidence. Also, the World of Ice and Fire app, which was published by GRRM, states:

Joffrey steals a Valyrian dagger from his father and hires a servant to kill Bran.

The only thing left to argue for anyone reasonable enough to admit the truth, is whether this is an acceptable answer. Honestly, I believe that this sentiment stems from people’s inability to cope with the fact that they didn’t figure out the mystery themselves without having to be told. And for some people, that means the mystery itself was bad. To me, this idea doesn’t really justify a response.

This mystery, the person who hired the catspaw, is a controversial one among many in the fandom, and I honestly can’t understand why. Hopefully, those of you who were unsure about certain parts of this story found something in this essay you learned and I hope you enjoyed reading. I tried to provide as many rebukes in the “Debunking Debunkers” section, but I’m sure there will be plenty more where that came from once this is published. Feel free to leave your opinions in the comments and I’ll also answer any questions you might have. I don’t mind dissent and disagreement – in fact I’m expecting it! Once again, thanks everyone for reading. Follow me here on this blog, as I should have some new stuff out at least once a week. See ya!