jumpingdead

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Member Back to Top Post by jumpingdead on



Sorry the format isn't pretty. I'm still working on that. Going to have something easier to read real soon. But I know people want answers and results, and pretty can wait for now.



Current odds on the "Increased chances for Garret" promo:



Cliff notes:

Any 5*: .85%

Any 4*: 17%

Garbage: 82.15%



Garrett: .65%



Basically, you have less than 1% chance of getting a 5*, but if you do, 3 out of 4 times it will be Garret.





Name Rarity Color % Chance



Annie 5* Y 0.00540%



Carl 5* R 0.00540%



Caroline 5* R 0.00540%



Clementine 5* R 0.00540%



Dwight 5* B 0.00540%



Ezekiel 5* G 0.00540%



Kenny 5* B 0.00540%



Lee 5* G 0.00540%



MarkX: 5* B 0.00540%



Michonne 5* G 0.00540%



Aaron 5* B 0.00541%



Abraham 5* G 0.00541%



Andrea 5* B 0.00541%



Ben 5* Y 0.00541%



Carley 5* Y 0.00541%



Christa 5* Y 0.00541%



Donny 5* R 0.00541%



Ellen 5* Y 0.00541%



Eric 5* B 0.00541%



Glenn 5* R 0.00541%



Glenn 5* G 0.00541%



Heath 5* R 0.00541%



Hershel 5* B 0.00541%



Jesus 5* Y 0.00541%



Larry 5* G 0.00541%



Lilly 5* B 0.00541%



Morgan 5* Y 0.00541%



Oberson 5* Y 0.00541%



Omid 5* B 0.00541%



Rick 5* R 0.00541%



Rick 5* Y 0.00541%



Shane 5* R 0.00541%



The Governor 5* B 0.00541%



Tyreese 5* Y 0.00541%



Vernon 5* R 0.00541%



Victor 5* Y 0.00541%



Jesus 5* Y 0.00541% Chance for non-Garret 5 0.200%



Garrett 5* R 0.65000% Garret: 0.650%



Amy 4* R 0.85000%



Andrea 4* B 0.85000%



Carson 4* B 0.85000%



Chuck 4* G 0.85000%



Denise 4* Y 0.85000%



Eugene 4* R 0.85000%



Glenn 4* Y 0.85000%



Hershel 4* B 0.85000%



Jesus 4* Y 0.85000%



Joshua 4* G 0.85000%



Lori 4* R 0.85000%



Maggie 4* G 0.85000%



Maggie 4* R 0.85000%



Mark 4* B 0.85000%



Michonne 4* G 0.85000%



Olivia 4* R 0.85000%



Rick 4* R 0.85000%



Rosita 4* R 0.85000%



Shane 4* B 0.85000%



Siddiq 4* Y 0.85000% Any 4*: 17.000%



Andrea 3* B 3.57174%



Axel 3* Y 3.57174%



Benjamin 3* G 3.57174%



Dale 3* R 3.57174%



Dale 3* R 3.57174%



Doug 3* Y 3.57174%



Eugene 3* G 3.57174%



Gabe 3* B 3.57174%



Gavin 3* R 3.57174%



Gloria 3* R 3.57174%



Harlan 3* Y 3.57174%



Heath 3* R 3.57174%



Holly 3* Y 3.57174%



Lilly 3* B 3.57174%



Maggie 3* G 3.57174%



Michonne 3* G 3.57174%



Mirabelle 3* R 3.57174%



Nicholas 3* B 3.57174%



Rick 3* R 3.57174%



Rick 3* R 3.57174%



Rick 3* R 3.57174%



Sandy 3* R 3.57174%



Shane 3* G 3.57174% Garbage: 82.150%







Please see my post here for details on this chart.Sorry the format isn't pretty. I'm still working on that. Going to have something easier to read real soon. But I know people want answers and results, and pretty can wait for now.Current odds on the "Increased chances for Garret" promo:Cliff notes:Any 5*: .85%Any 4*: 17%Garbage: 82.15%Garrett: .65%Basically, you have less than 1% chance of getting a 5*, but if you do, 3 out of 4 times it will be Garret.

jtk28

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Member Back to Top Post by jtk28 on 0.00540% What a fucking rip off. That is about a 1 in 18,500 chance of getting a 5* character.



So just to compare. Let's compare those odds with other odds.





Odds of being diagnosed with cancer — 1 in 2



Odds of being a victim of a serious crime — 1 in 20



Odds of being called to “Come on down!” on The Price is Right — 1 in 36



Odds of being audited by the IRS — 1 in 175



Odds of being arrested while drunk driving — 1 in 200



Odds of being born with 11 fingers or toes — 1 in 500



Odds of dying from an injury in the next year — 1 in 1,820



Odds of dying in a car accident — Between 1 in 4,000 and 1 in 8,000



Odds of winning an Oscar — 1 in 11,500



Odds of finding a pearl in an oyster — 1 in 12,000



Odds of becoming a professional athlete — 1 in 22,000





So our chances of getting a five star character is somewhere between finding a pearl in an oyster and becoming a professional athlete.



FUCK YOU SCOPELY.

jumpingdead

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Member Back to Top Post by jumpingdead on jtk28 said:



So just to compare. Let's compare those odds with other odds.





Odds of being diagnosed with cancer — 1 in 2



Odds of being a victim of a serious crime — 1 in 20



Odds of being called to “Come on down!” on The Price is Right — 1 in 36



Odds of being audited by the IRS — 1 in 175



Odds of being arrested while drunk driving — 1 in 200



Odds of being born with 11 fingers or toes — 1 in 500



Odds of dying from an injury in the next year — 1 in 1,820



Odds of dying in a car accident — Between 1 in 4,000 and 1 in 8,000



Odds of winning an Oscar — 1 in 11,500



Odds of finding a pearl in an oyster — 1 in 12,000



Odds of becoming a professional athlete — 1 in 22,000





So our chances of getting a five star character is somewhere between finding a pearl in an oyster and becoming a professional athlete.



FUCK YOU SCOPELY. 0.00540% What a fucking rip off. That is about a 1 in 18,500 chance of getting a 5* character.So just to compare. Let's compare those odds with other odds.Odds of being diagnosed with cancer — 1 in 2Odds of being a victim of a serious crime — 1 in 20Odds of being called to “Come on down!” on The Price is Right — 1 in 36Odds of being audited by the IRS — 1 in 175Odds of being arrested while drunk driving — 1 in 200Odds of being born with 11 fingers or toes — 1 in 500Odds of dying from an injury in the next year — 1 in 1,820Odds of dying in a car accident — Between 1 in 4,000 and 1 in 8,000Odds of winning an Oscar — 1 in 11,500Odds of finding a pearl in an oyster — 1 in 12,000Odds of becoming a professional athlete — 1 in 22,000So our chances of getting a five star character is somewhere between finding a pearl in an oyster and becoming a professional athlete.FUCK YOU SCOPELY.



The fact you looked that data up? You are my new favorite person, ever.



The thing you fail to note is that it only costs like $2.50 to try. For $2.50 a pop, you can keep trying. Suck it, professional athletes!

The fact you looked that data up? You are my new favorite person, ever.The thing you fail to note is that it only costs like $2.50 to try. For $2.50 a pop, you can keep trying. Suck it, professional athletes!

jumpingdead

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Member Back to Top Post by jumpingdead on Curious George said: So how did you end up with these odds? So how did you end up with these odds?

My first answer was Buffalo Trace, Bulliet, and Macallan 12 year - but thats just what's fueling tonight's posting spree.



By spending countless hours disassembling the source code, buying a used macbook air so I could run the lldb debugger on the running code, setting breakpoints, reading register changes, going through two notebooks worth of paper taking notes, about 48 dead ends and starting over, finally figuring out how scopely obfuscates their numbers in internal memory, googling "arm vldr1.32 d0, r0, r0" about 900 times, learning how an ARM processor stores a floating point number, in hexdecimal format and shares it's register ranges with S0 and S1, what the holy fuck "APSR_nzcv, FPSCR" means, and then hooking into those functions, pulling the data out, and using code like:



chance = *(float *)(size_t)(*(unsigned int *)(size_t)((*ap)+0xbc)+0x14)))



To figure it out? Maybe that?



Thats how I ended up with those odds.



(Disclaimer: Had one too many drinks on an empty stomach tonight. Neither jumpingdead nor rts-revolt claims any responsibility for syntax errors, SEGFAULTS, or mismatches ()'s in example code posted tonight) My first answer was Buffalo Trace, Bulliet, and Macallan 12 year - but thats just what's fueling tonight's posting spree.By spending countless hours disassembling the source code, buying a used macbook air so I could run the lldb debugger on the running code, setting breakpoints, reading register changes, going through two notebooks worth of paper taking notes, about 48 dead ends and starting over, finally figuring out how scopely obfuscates their numbers in internal memory, googling "arm vldr1.32 d0, r0, r0" about 900 times, learning how an ARM processor stores a floating point number, in hexdecimal format and shares it's register ranges with S0 and S1, what the holy fuck "APSR_nzcv, FPSCR" means, and then hooking into those functions, pulling the data out, and using code like:chance = *(float *)(size_t)(*(unsigned int *)(size_t)((*ap)+0xbc)+0x14)))To figure it out? Maybe that?Thats how I ended up with those odds.(Disclaimer: Had one too many drinks on an empty stomach tonight. Neither jumpingdead nor rts-revolt claims any responsibility for syntax errors, SEGFAULTS, or mismatches ()'s in example code posted tonight)

jumpingdead

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Member Back to Top Post by jumpingdead on



But the funny thing is I'm fucking in their code in assembly. I'd bet $50 no one there knows, off the top of their head, especially after having a few drinks, what the byte offsets are from the base of the character data in memory is, to the location of the characters name loaded from the pak.txt;en file is. I do, and I'm 70% drunk right now.



Oh they'd make so much more if we were on the same side As I read that over, I have to laugh. My first thought is Scopely sees +0xBC)+0x14 and thinks "Oh shit he kows what hes doing".But the funny thing is I'm fucking in their code in assembly. I'd bet $50 no one there knows, off the top of their head, especially after having a few drinks, what the byte offsets are from the base of the character data in memory is, to the location of the characters name loaded from the pak.txt;en file is. I do, and I'm 70% drunk right now.Oh they'd make so much more if we were on the same side

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Link to Post Back to Top Post by fisher on This is great information! Thanks JumpingDead.



So the chances to get a 5* are basically 0.85% this promo and 17% for a 4*? So if I do a 30 opens I will get 25 3* and 5 4*? That seems pretty accurate.



It also means that I need to do an average of 120 pulls this time to get a 5* aka use 25,800 coins or 313 USD.