NBC News projects Obama clinch

NBC News, which keeps the most widely followed of the media's Electoral College estimates, on Friday night said it is moving the closely watched battlegrounds of Virginia and Colorado to “lean Obama,” putting its estimate for the Democratic nominee over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

President Bush won each of those states by 5 points or more in both 2000 and 2004.


Before the move, NBC’s count had Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) at 264 electoral votes, to 163 for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), with 111 as tossups.

“We’re going to be, this weekend, moving Virginia and Colorado — two tossup states — into the ‘lean Obama’ category,” political director Chuck Todd told “NBC Nightly News” anchor Brian Williams from Chicago. “That moves his total to 286.”

The move is congruent with projections by others, but marks a milestone because NBC’s count is so closely followed by the press and campaigns.

Then Todd pointed out a curiosity of electoral math: “If Nevada, which is a state that’s also trending in Obama’s direction, went in his column at 291, that means he could lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida to McCain and still be at 270. It’s a big shift. It just shows you the expanded playing field for Obama has paid off. He is not banking on those big states.”

Politico’s 2008 Swing State Map, based on RealClearPolitics polling averages, gives Obama an even wider electoral vote margin over McCain, 375-163.

Former Bush strategist Karl Rove, on Rove.com, has his tally at 306 for Obama to 171 for McCain, with 61 tossups.

Rove’s latest analysis has McCain making progress in Florida: “With under two weeks to go before Election Day, Barack Obama retains the lead in the Electoral College with 306 votes to McCain’s 171 and 61 votes as a tossup. Since last week, Ohio (20 EV) has shifted from tossup to Obama, while Florida (27 EV) has gone from Obama to tossup, a net loss of 7 electoral votes for the Illinois senator. McCain still needs to win the tossup states and peel Ohio and at least one substantial state away from Obama to have a chance at victory. In Virginia (13 EV) and Pennsylvania (21 EV), which his campaign says he is targeting, he trails by 7 and 13 points, respectively.”