If that’s right, then perhaps the stakes here aren’t as high as the agreement’s most fervent boosters have argued. The economist Tyler Cowen suggested as much on Twitter, arguing that his “default hypothesis” is that “it is not actually a huge transfer of wealth to them.”

An alternative interpretation is that Wall Street didn’t react because financial markets already expected it. But given the extent of surprise among the trade policy analysts that I talk with, this seems unlikely. Even as it was widely understood that the vote would be close, few expected it to be defeated.

Or perhaps traders remain optimistic that — despite today’s vote — the odds that the trade deal will eventually pass remain high. After all, there is already talk of a revote on Tuesday. Perhaps that will lead to a different outcome, but perhaps not.

Either way, it would be naïve to ignore the message implicit in today’s vote that passing international trade agreements is a difficult political task, especially given the dissent in both Republican and Democratic ranks.