Judy Solomon (@judyCBPP) is the vice president for health policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, where her work focuses on Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program and health reform implementation issues. The views expressed here are solely hers.

(CNN) The Trump administration's announcement on Thursday allowing states to tie low-income people's eligibility for Medicaid to work or work-related activities isn't aimed primarily at promoting work. Don't be fooled. It's the first of several expected steps to shrink and weaken the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion that provided coverage for 11 million low-income adults, with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty line.

Judy Solomon

Soon, the administration will likely approve "waiver" proposals , starting with Kentucky and Indiana and followed by other states, to end Medicaid coverage not only for people who aren't working, but also for those who didn't pay premiums — or renew their coverage — on time.

Most Medicaid beneficiaries who can work, do work. Nearly eight in 10 adult beneficiaries who aren't disabled live in working families; most are working themselves. The vast majority of those who aren't working have an illness or disability, are caring for a family member, or are in school. So, the main impact of work requirements will be to eliminate health coverage for large numbers of low-income people, most of whom gained coverage through the Medicaid expansion — including people who are already working but don't meet state paperwork requirements and those who can't work due to illness or disability.

JUST WATCHED HHS nominee: Trump should keep word on Medicaid Replay More Videos ... MUST WATCH HHS nominee: Trump should keep word on Medicaid 01:16

Although the announcement says states must protect people who can't meet a work requirement because of illness or disability, don't hold your breath. We know from experience with work requirements in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and SNAP (formerly food stamps) that large numbers of people lost benefits because the state decided they hadn't met various paperwork requirements to show they were working or unable to work or they experienced other barriers to proving they were exempt from the requirement.

If work requirements have the same impact in Medicaid, that will weaken the Medicaid expansion, furthering a key administration goal. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services administrator, Seema Verma, has said the ACA's Medicaid expansion didn't "make sense," and last year the administration and the Republican Congress failed in multiple tries to repeal it outright. This disagreement with expansion lies at the heart of the decision to allow states to make Medicaid changes that the states themselves admit will reduce coverage.