All NFL coaches seek to win games in the trenches, but Atanta's Mike Smith is showing you can win them on a spreadsheet, too.

Nearly a decade ago, California-Berkeley economist David Romer conducted the preeminent study on fourth down with his paper "It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say?" Through mathematics, he showed that coaches leave far too many points on the table by being conservative on fourth down—going for it makes more sense than kicking when just three yards or less is needed.

Whether...