A while ago I finished a series of articles on Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr where I look at each touchdown and interception the three rookie QBs threw in 2014. This article is to wrap-up those posts, and give a bit of a comparison between the three rookies. If you missed one of those articles or just want a refresher, they are below:

Before I begin the post in earnest, I’d like to offer a disclaimer. The analysis I’m making in these posts is based off of a subset of plays that doesn’t even represent a tenth of each rookie’s attempts in 2014. While I believe that looking at TDs and Turnovers can give you a view into some of the things each player does well and some of the things each player needs to work on, I don’t believe it gives you a complete view of each QB. I’m going to try not to make any sweeping generalizations in this post. I will be comparing the players within each category, but I’ll try not to make any overarching statements. If I do, please don’t take them the wrong way.

With that being said, I’d like to include one more housekeeping point before I begin. The article has three pages. The first is a comparison of the charting data for the QBs’ TD passes, while the second does the same thing for the interceptions. The third page is a breakdown of what I think are the two best throws each QB made as well as the two worst throws.

Touchdown Charting Data

Yardage Breakdown

Bortles Bridgewater Carr Yards 270 320 257 Average 24.5 22.9 12.2 Yards after catch 88 151 123 Average 8.0 10.8 5.9 Yards in Air 176 169 134 Average 16.0 12.1 6.4 Yards in Air+ 202 196 200 Average 18.4 14 9.5

The difference between “Yards in Air” and “Yards in Air+” is that I give credit for yards in the endzone in “Yards in Air+.” So, if the line of scrimmage is the 2 and he throws a TD pass that’s caught 7 yards into the endzone, the YIA for that play is 2 while the YIA+ is 9.

One thing that’s clear is that Bridgewater and Bortles were both throwing much further down the field on average than Carr was. Bortles more than doubled his average yards per pass, and Bridgewater nearly did. Same for Yards in Air. Carr made up some ground on YIA+, but he’s still far behind. Bortles was the biggest bomber of the three, and Bridgewater was somewhat helped by YAC, but he was still targeting players deep down the field (14 yards past the LOS on average). Part of this trend could be based on the number of TD passes each player threw, as Carr obviously threw the most, while Bortles threw the least.

The reason Carr had such a lower average than Bridgewater or Bortles will become clear in the next breakdown, the breakdown by distance:

Distance Breakdown

Bortles Bridgewater Carr Fewer than 6 Yards 3 3 10 Between 6 and 15 yards 1 3 7 More than 15 yards 7 8 4

Carr clearly threw the most short TDs of the bunch. Taking a look at this, you could say “oh man, Carr’s TD numbers were really helped by the fact that he was throwing on the goal line a lot.” But I don’t think that would be a good conclusion to come to for two reasons. First of all, the compressed field around the goal line makes the degree of difficulty on those TD throws much higher. Secondly, it’s a function of the offense Carr played in. Carr threw an astounding 16 of his TD passes from inside the 10 yard line. How many did the Raiders rush for inside the ten? Just two all season. The run game Carr had was abysmal, and that’s why he threw so many short TD passes. For reference, Bridgewater threw 6 TD passes inside the 10, but the Vikings ran for 9 in games where Teddy played. Bortles threw 4 from inside the 10, and the Jaguars ran for 7 in those situations. So, to me, it’s clear that it’s not really fair to directly compare the length of TD passes that Carr was throwing to Bridgewater and Bortles. By the same token, Carr’s TD total was almost certainly inflated because he was throwing so many passes inside the 10, so it’s probably not fair to compare his totals to Bridgewater and Bortles.

Location Breakdown

Bortles Bridgewater Carr Deep Left 1 1 1 Deep Middle 0 0 3 Deep Right 3 5 1 Intermediate Left 2 1 2 Intermediate Middle 2 1 3 Intermediate Right 3 1 3 Short Left 0 2 6 Short Middle 0 0 1 Short Right 0 3 1

Something that really surprises me is that Bortles didn’t throw any passing TDs on routes that were within five yards of the LOS in 2014. He didn’t trhow many TD passes inside the 10, so that helps explain it. The other reason is that none of his receivers were able to take a screen to the house, which both Bridgewater and Carr had receivers do. Bortles and Carr almost match each other perfectly on the number of TD passes they threw on intermediate routes. Bridgewater sticks out with 5 TD passes to the deep right, while Carr sticks out with 6 TD passes to the short left.

Situational Breakdown

Bortles Bridgewater Carr Crunch Time 0 2 2 Garbage Time 4 0 6

Carr and Bortles were obviously both on bad teams, so each got a lot of work in garbage time, which led to each throwing a large number of TDs while behind big. Bridgewater, on the other hand, threw no TDs of this variety, but instead helped his team with 2 clutch TD passes. Carr also had two such passes, but Bortles was not able to come up with any on the year.

Quarter Breakdown

Bortles Bridgewater Carr 1st Quarter 1 3 3 2nd Quarter 3 6 4 3rd Quarter 2 2 4 4th Quarter/OT 5 3 10

From the previous table, the reason Carr has 10 4th quarter TDs should be clear: he threw a lot in garbage time. Same goes for Bortles. If you take away those TDs, Carr spread his TD passes out almost even across the different quarters, while Bortles only has 1 in the fourth. I think the QBs definitely deserve some credit for their garbage time TDs, but I don’t give them full credit.

The only other thing that sticks out to me here is that Bridgewater threw quite a few TDs in the 2nd Quarter. Specifically, he was really good at throwing TDs late in the 2nd. This is a good trend because it’s putting the Vikings in a good position going into halftime.

Down Breakdown

Bortles Bridgewater Carr 1st Down 6 7 5 2nd Down 3 3 4 3rd Down 2 4 11 4th Down 0 0 1

If anything, it’s interesting to look at the difference between Bridgewater and Bortles, who both threw the majority of their TDs on first down, and Carr, who most often threw his TDs on third down. I have no idea if this means anything.

Route Breakdown

Bortles Bridgewater Carr Vertical 5 4 5 Flat/Screen 0 4 5 Corner 1 3 2 Crossing 1 1 3 Post 1 1 1 Curl 1 0 2 Out 1 1 0 Slant 1 0 1 Double Move 0 0 2

Vertical routes are clearly the most common route these QBs threw TDs on. As I mentioned above, Bortles didn’t throw any TDs on short routes, which is certainly intriguing. Further study on him would be required to tell if it was just that the Jaguars didn’t execute those short routes well or if it just wasn’t a big part of their offense. For the Vikings and Raiders, however, those screen/flat routes definitely came into play often. Corner and Crossing routes also resulted in a number of TDs for these QBs.

That’s all of the TD charting data I’m going to cover. Go to the next page for the beginning of the interception charting data.