What’s that in the distance? A bird? A plane? A Tesla? A minivan?! No, it’s an Apple Car. Coming right at us!

Multiple reports in the past week point to Apple now working on some kind of entrant into the automotive industry. The details seem muddled and in some cases, contradictory, but none of this should be surprising.

Of course Apple is working on a car.

That statement is based on nothing other than the laws of common sense. Apple currently sits atop all other companies at the absolute pinnacle of business. They’re now making more money than any other company has… ever. They’re the first company valued over $700 billion, with sights firmly set on $1 trillion.

But Wall Street is a shrewd mistress. Last quarter was great, but what have you done for her lately? The iPhone is fantastic. But what’s next?

Yes, yes the Apple Watch. It will likely do better than many people expect. But even a home run is unlikely to move Apple’s bottom line that much. It’s a device that exists to move more iPhones and secure the moat around that product — at least for now.

In order to truly move the needle, Apple has a handful of choices:

1) Become a telecom player

2) Become an energy company

3) Become a bank

4) Become a car maker

5) Create a new industry

People always point to and talk about number five. The problem is that Apple has really only done this once in its history: in the beginning with the personal computer. Apple’s other successes, including their biggest: the iPod, iPhone, and iPad, all were successes in categories that existed well before Apple entered the space.

The Watch, of course, will be the same story.

So that points to Apple going after numbers one through four on the list. Number one is probably inevitable but also something Apple probably wants to avoid because it would be a huge pain in the ass for a number of reasons. Number two is a good joke, but the least likely (though the solar interest is noted…). Number three has perhaps the clearest path right now with Apple Pay. But it is nascent and going to be a long road.

That leaves number four, become a car maker, the most likely.

But it’s crazy, right? Apple could never become a car company. Look, the former CEO of General Motors, Dan Akerson, says so right here:

I think somebody is kind of trying to cough up a hairball here. If I were an Apple shareholder, I wouldn’t be very happy.

And as we all know, former CEOs of incumbents in various industries have great track records at such predictions!

But also, cars have shitty margins! Here’s Akerson again:

I would be highly suspect of the long-term prospect of getting into a low-margin, heavy-manufacturing.

And Apple doesn’t go into businesses with shitty margins. Except when they do and magically make those margins not so shitty.

But wait, here’s another reason why Apple won’t do this. And here’s 100 more. Also, it’s a sign of a tech bubble. Or something.

Look, ultimately no one knows if Apple is ever going to release a car. Not even Apple can be certain at such an early stage. But they’re clearly exploring the possibility and hiring for it. And again, they’d be foolish not to.

Apple brought in around $182 billion in revenue last year. Their tech peers came in with the following: Google at $66 billion. Microsoft at $87 billion. Amazon at $89 billion. IBM at $93 billion.

You know who was a lot closer to Apple in this regard? Ford at $147 billion. GM at $155 billion. Volkswagen at $225 billion. These are now Apple’s peers in business. They’ve leveled up.

And it’s not like Apple is going to throw away all their other businesses if and when they enter the automotive space. This new line will be additive. In fact, the best case you can make as to why Apple shouldn’t and maybe wouldn’t make a car is related to this: focus.

That is, such an undertaking will take a lot of time and effort that would otherwise be placed elsewhere within the company. And, as we’re now seeing with Sony, or even Apple in the 1990s, when a company starts to do too much…

But this is a very different Apple. This is a company about to dive headfirst into the luxury space with the Apple Watch. One lifestyle leads to another…

And we already know Steve Jobs wanted to build a car. Phil Schiller has said Apple thought about building a car in the past — and is a car guy. Jony Ive is a car guy. Eddy Cue, car guy. At some point, it would be almost like Apple was going out of its way not to build a car.

CarPlay is essentially Apple’s “Rokr” play here. You partner to test the waters and gain some intel, biding your time until you go all-in. And when that time rolls around, the automotive world is likely to be a very different place than it is right now. Electric cars galore. Self-driving cars a reality. Etc.

“We take steel, raw steel, and turn it into car. They have no idea what they’re getting into if they get into that.”

I don’t know if that quote is going to bite Akerson in the ass in 2019, 2020, or 2030. But I have this funny feeling it will at some point in the future.