furuknap



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Sr. MemberActivity: 294Merit: 250http://coin.furuknap.net/ Re: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] May 31, 2013, 03:08:28 PM #283 Quote from: Eric Muyser on May 31, 2013, 05:46:59 AM As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.



That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.



Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.



Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss.



.b That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss..b My Coinblog: http://coin.furuknap.net/

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Full MemberActivity: 224Merit: 100You can't kill math. Re: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] May 31, 2013, 05:03:11 PM #284 Quote from: furuknap on May 31, 2013, 03:08:28 PM Quote from: Eric Muyser on May 31, 2013, 05:46:59 AM As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.



That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.



Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.



Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss.



.b

That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss..b

Right, that's what I mean. I think, meaning, it's my opinion, that the current price is sufficiently cheap enough for me to risk never seeing these Bitcoins again, taking in consideration the profit and dividends if they succeed. I have faith in bitfury. Not as much as friedcat though. Right, that's what I mean. I, meaning, it's my opinion, that the current price is sufficiently cheap enough for me to risk never seeing these Bitcoins again, taking in consideration the profit and dividends if they succeed. I have faith in bitfury. Not as much as friedcat though. @EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee - Bruce Lee

kaerf



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Hero MemberActivity: 631Merit: 500 Re: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] May 31, 2013, 06:02:26 PM #286 Quote from: furuknap on May 31, 2013, 03:08:28 PM

Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.





And this is something that we all need to keep adjusting in our calculations. I made some projections weeks (months?) ago about the potential earnings for 100TH. The projections have changed dramatically since BFL/Avalon have delayed and AM is not being aggressive with their rollout. My current projections are nearly double of what I initially calculated.



IF 100TH can meet their projected timelines, the price is still good (of course this all depends on what kind of ROI you want and how fast you want).





FWIW, I don't think projecting more than 24 months out makes any sense. IMO, the earnings curve quickly plateaus starting around 18 months from now. And this is something that we all need to keep adjusting in our calculations. I made some projections weeks (months?) ago about the potential earnings for 100TH. The projections have changed dramatically since BFL/Avalon have delayed and AM is not being aggressive with their rollout. My current projections are nearly double of what I initially calculated.100TH can meet their projected timelines, the price is still good (of course this all depends on what kind of ROI you want and how fast you want).FWIW, I don't think projecting more than 24 months out makes any sense. IMO, the earnings curve quickly plateaus starting around 18 months from now.

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Hero MemberActivity: 756Merit: 501 Re: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] June 01, 2013, 10:06:06 AM #287 Quote from: Transisto on May 31, 2013, 05:14:37 PM Code: If the chips fail to meet the expected performance the manufacturer will provide the mine

with additional boards to achieve the expected hashrate of 100TH/s (or 0.2GH/s per

raised 1USD). If the chips fail to achieve the expected power efficiency the manufacturer

will renegotiate the management deal with the hosting data center and compensate the

100TH-mine project for the losses. If the chips fail completely a substantial delay in

mining will occur. The manufacturer will undertake an effort to reimburse the investors

not only for the invested capital but also for the lost income up to the level of 10 USD per

invested 5 USD

I don't know who in his right mind imagines such fantasy is worth the forum paper it's printed on. With what money will a manufacturer that blew its product compensate investors "not only for capital but also for "lost" income"? If it didn't need the capital to build the chip it wouldn't need the investors. If it spends the capital on building the chip it has nothing left over to compensate anyone. Look at bASIC (this guy's previous pseudo"investment"), look at BFL, look wherever you want. This "we invest and if things go well we make bank yet if things go badly we get everything back plus more" doesn't exist outside of Kramerica Industries. I don't know who in his right mind imagines such fantasy is worth the forum paper it's printed on. With what money will a manufacturer that blew its product compensate investors "not only for capital but also for "lost" income"? If it didn't need the capital to build the chip it wouldn't need the investors. If it spends the capital on building the chip it has nothing left over to compensate anyone. Look at bASIC (this guy's previous pseudo"investment"), look at BFL, look wherever you want. This "we invest and if things go well we make bank yet if things go badly we get everything back plus more" doesn't exist outside of Kramerica Industries. My Credentials | THE BTC Stock Exchange | I have my very own anthology ! | Use bitcointa.lk , it's like this one but better.

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NewbieActivity: 54Merit: 0 Re: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] June 03, 2013, 11:05:07 PM #293 I may have missed this but what is the relationship between this project and the Metabank 120G pre order that is going on right now? Are we talking about the same timeline or this is going to be online sooner? I am deciding which one I should invest.



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NewbieActivity: 54Merit: 0 Re: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] June 03, 2013, 11:47:27 PM #296 I guess the part I am trying to understand is what evidence do we have that indicates 100TH will deploy before Metabank ships their 120G miner? Is 100TH simply hosting tons of the same product that is going for preorder at the moment or are we talking about something very different, thus the potential early deployment?



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Hero MemberActivity: 631Merit: 500 Re: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] June 04, 2013, 01:44:20 AM #297 Quote from: slightboyme on June 03, 2013, 11:47:27 PM I guess the part I am trying to understand is what evidence do we have that indicates 100TH will deploy before Metabank ships their 120G miner? Is 100TH simply hosting tons of the same product that is going for preorder at the moment or are we talking about something very different, thus the potential early deployment?



Thanks



I'm not sure when metabank will get their chips, but they are getting them from tytus et al.





If metabank gets the chips at the same time (or very soon after) as 100th, then I guess it could be a race to see who is able to assemble their hardware faster. I don't know how Metabank will package their ASICS, but 100th doesn't need to put things into a pretty box, so this could potentially give 100th a slight edge.

/speculation





Metabank definitely offers a good price, but 100th offers ( a little bit of ) liquidity. I'm not sure when metabank will get their chips, but they are getting them fromet al.If metabank gets the chips at the same time (or very soon after) as 100th, then I guess it could be a race to see who is able to assemble their hardware faster. I don't know how Metabank will package their ASICS, but 100th doesn't need to put things into a pretty box, so this could potentially give 100th a slight edge./speculationMetabank definitely offers a good price, but 100th offers ( a little bit of ) liquidity.