With the April legislative elections coming up, all eyes are on Jongno. The Seoul district is often called South Korea’s political heart as it is home to the Blue House–the presidential residence– and many key government offices. The district is considered a key battlefield in the upcoming elections as the winner could go on to win the 2022 presidential elections and become the country’s next leader.

The main contenders for the position are former Prime Minister Lee Nak Yeon of the ruling Democratic Party (DP) and Chairman Hwang Kyo Ahn of the main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP). For now, Lee seems to be leading in the polls. He is also considered the strongest contender for the presidential elections, with a recent Realmeter poll putting him in first place with 29.9 percent support, compared to Hwang’s 17.7 percent.

Previous representatives of the district who went on to become president were Yun Posun, Roh Moo Hyun and Lee Myung Bak. Although Jongno is officially referred to as a district, its residents are nonetheless entitled to elect their own mayor and form their own district council, since all the 25 districts in Seoul enjoy city-equivalent status. Although a traditionally conservative stronghold, the district has been under DP control since before Moon’s presidency. Chung Se Kyun, the current Jongno representative, has held the post since 2012 and was recently appointed as Moon’s new prime minister last month.

Candidate A: Lee Nak Yeon

Compared to his rival, Lee Nak Yeon boasts more political experience. He worked as a journalist before becoming a governor and four-term lawmaker. Lee was a member of the National Assembly from 2000 to 2014, representing Damyang, Hampyeong, Yeonggwang, and Jangseong counties in South Jeolla Province. In 2014, he won the gubernatorial election and became governor of South Jeolla Province, winning over 75% of the vote. He has a track-record in diplomacy and played a key role in strengthening relations with foreign leaders as prime minister. He is especially knowledgable on Japan and speaks Japanese fluently.

Lee resumed his political activity in mid-January after serving as prime minister in the Moon Administration since May 2017, which earned him the title of longest-serving prime minister since the constitution was last revised in 1987. He announced his run for the Jongno district on January 23, two weeks before his rival Hwang.

Candidate B: Hwang Kyo Ahn

Before politics, Hwang was a public prosecutor and lawyer. He became the country’s justice minister in 2013, through which he successfully drove a government attempt to eliminate a leftist political party accused of pro-North Korea views. Like Lee, Hwang also served as prime minister but under former President Park Geun Hye. He then doubled as president between Park’s impeachment in December 2016 and the presidential election in May 2017. He became the chairman of the LKP in February 2019, barely a month after joining the party.

However, Hwang is trying to make his run less about him and more about his perceived failure of the Moon Administration. He even staged a dramatic hunger strike last year in opposition to Moon’s prosecution and electoral reform policies. He has blamed Moon for an economic slowdown and the stalled denuclearization of North Korea. In fact, Hwang made clear his intention to frame the election as a judgment on President Moon. When announcing his run for the district, Hwang said this about his reasons for doing so: “I am running to win against the Moon administration. This isn’t a one-on-one match; this is a fight between me and the Moon administration.”

Beyond Seoul

Jongno is far from being the only district to watch, however. All 300 members of the National Assembly will be chosen on April 15, meaning the political landscape of the country could change dramatically. The last legislative elections were held in 2016 and saw the Saenuri Party (now LKP) suffer a narrow defeat with 122 seats to the DP’s 123 seats. Although the ruling party is expected to win more seats than the opposition, it remains unclear whether it will be able to secure a majority (151 seats). This is mainly due to criticisms of its handling of economic challenges at a time when the Korean economy is losing steam amid faltering exports.

The LKP may perform better than expected due to its recent coalition-forming streak, joining forces with smaller conservative parties. Their hope is that this will result in a stronger showing on April 15 and more seats in the National Assembly. The conservatives desperately need this win given their dismal performance in the 2018 local elections. Even though they tried to ‘rebrand’ themselves after the Park Geun Hye impeachment scandal, trust levels remained very low. It will thus be interesting to see how far their revamping has come and if it will have any tangible effects in terms of parliamentary representation.

One thing is certain: the April 15 elections will be a vote of confidence in the Moon administration’s policies and the results will likely predict the political landscape of the country for the next few years. The opposition will be focusing mainly on the state of the economy by blaming the ruling party for current setbacks and by trying to convince the public they could do a better job. The LKP is even challenging Moon on his signature policy— promoting relations with North Korea—by recruiting defectors to join its party. Just today, one of the country’s highest-level defectors announced he’d be running for a Seoul constituency as a member of the LKP.

The polls will be conducted for the first time under revised election rules that adopt a mixed-member proportional (MMP) representation system, in which parliamentary seats are tied to voters’ support for parties. The opposition, however, is not happy with the change. They previously claimed that the bill would “rip the assembly into pieces and render it a multi-party system.” The winner-takes-all constituency system has mostly benefited the two large parties, aggravating deeply rooted regionalism. Smaller parties could thus have a better shot at more seats this time around, but the long-term effects of these changes remain to be seen.

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