TRON Price Analysis — Mainet switch driving bullish sentiment







Tronix(TRX) is currently valued at USD 0.073 and is the 9th largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $7,298,061,000 (mainly driven by its extraordinary total supply of 100,000,000,000 tokens).

24 hour volume was US$570.67M. Binance accounted for 43% of the total trading volume with the most popular pairs being TRX/KRW (48%) and TRX/BTC (31%).

Concerns and FUD

The TRON project faced harsh criticism early on for the English language version of its white paper that heavily plagiarized most of its technical details from coins offering similar services, such as IPFS. According to the TRON team this was due to translations being outsourced to the TRON community, with a much more professional and technically proficient white paper available in Chinese. The mistake was clearly embarrassing for TRON and its founder Justin Sun.



A polarizing figure in the crypto sector, Sun is a master of the overstatement — setting a new standard for hyperbole on his always entertaining twitter feed.

He has often proclaimed the superiority of the TRON ecosystem over Ethereum’s for some very thin reasons, without having any real evidence to prove it.

And there is the story that Sun is a protégé of Jack Ma. As great a tale as this might have been, it is also only distantly related to the truth — and if the protégé urban legend really has been a factor in positive price movements for TRON then the market has been misinformed. The rumors stemming merely from the fact that Sun completed the MBA program at the Jack Ma supported Hupan University.

Sun’s crypto career credentials do include holding a senior position in Ripple China for two years, and his previous application Piewo has a user base of around 10 million. It is hoped that these users will be integrated into the TRON blockchain at some point in the future.

The TRON use case

From an ICO launch price of US$0.0019, the price of TRX now sits at US$0.073 — representing a tidy increase of over 3,600 percent for early investors. In terms of TRON’s utility, its proclaimed mission is to ‘heal the internet’ by providing an alternative means of sharing, storing and owning entertainment content online, while cutting out middlemen like Apple, Google, Facebook, and YouTube. A noble ambition, to be sure, but exactly what the content sharing or online storage problem is that TRON would solve isn’t really clear.

While the argument that content creators will be empowered by the removal of middlemen from their industries is often referenced in discussions about the application of the blockchain to the entertainment sector, it’s a scenario that is real only in the minds of technologists.

Musicians and filmmakers have been free to interact directly with their fans from the earliest days of the internet, but without the enormous PR muscle that comes along with signing to Warner Bros, Universal or Sony, they have almost no chance of making it big. That status quo is deeply embedded and is very unlikely to be disrupted by the blockchain.

All that notwithstanding, the TRON vision of unseating Google and Youtube by creating a blockchain ecosystem where content can be posted and data accessed using TRX tokens, is appealing to those looking to back the next big disruptive blockchain technology. The concept of pulling profits away from big corporations has also delivered TRON some ‘Robin Hood’ appeal and gained a lot of ideological traction in internet communities like Reddit.

Moving to the Mainnet

From a foundational technology perspective, TRON’s imminent move to its own unique Mainnet is major news. A Mainnet migration is a shift for a distributed ledger ecosystem from its test network to its Main network. For TRX (and the majority of ICOs which have been facilitated using the ERC-20 protocol) it will mean moving from the Ethereum blockchain to its own. The date set for this migration is the 31st of May

TRON have made it clear they’re not fans of being on the Ethereum blockchain — describing Ethereum in a post on the TRONlabs blog, as being a ‘’low-efficiency, congestion-prone network,[with] high fees, and [a] steep learning curve’’. Shots at Ethereum don’t end there, with TRON also announcing the TRON virtual machine, which will allow Dapps (decentralized apps) built on the Ethereum network to be easily migrated onto the TRON blockchain.

Characteristically, TRON’s claims regarding its own Mainnet are impressive — saying it will process transactions 100 times faster than Ethereum, provide users with zero-fee access — and be highly developer friendly.

Importantly, a number of major exchanges and coin-wallets have confirmed they will be backing the switch — easing any market concerns as to TRON’s ongoing popularity or liquidity.

Binance, for example, is currently the 2nd most popular exchange in the world (behind OKEx) and TRON/BTC is currently the 3rd most popular pair on the exchange — higher than any Ethereum(ETH) pair. Bittrex and Bitfinix have also announced support for the TRON mainnet switch and the most popular trading pairs for TRX are currently, TRX/KRW, TRX/BTC, TRX/ETH and TRX/USDT.

In terms of cryptowallets, Bixin, RightBTC (Dubai’s first major digital currency wallet) and Bitpie have all offered users easy migration to the TRON mainnet from ERC-20 tokens — providing options to buyers who may be skeptical about TRX because of potential logistical difficulties arising from the mainnet migration.

Support for TRON from Litecoin founder Charlie Lee

Technical Analysis

TRX’s recent surge in price and sentiment, driven by the upcoming release of its Mainnet could be viewed as irrational FOMO or rational expectations that TRON will supplant Ethereum. Regardless, the price charts have turned bullish.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) with Volume Trends

On the daily chart, the bullish EMA recross, or Golden Cross, using the 50/100 day EMA, has occurred and price has been using the 50 day EMA (blue line) as support during its most recent uptrend. Although the EMA is poor at spotting market inflection points, it does lend credence to the bull notion for TRX (black arrow uptrend). Additionally, volume increased during the first up wave, but has since faded away.

This is potentially a positive sign for price given the recent decline has been on low volume (see red curve). If price can withstand this first pullback and TRON can go live with their Mainnet with limited issues, increased buying volume is likely to resume.

Ichimoku Clouds with Slow Wave Trend Oscillator (SWTO)

The Ichimoku Cloud uses four metrics to determine if a trend exists; the current price in relation to the Cloud, the color of the Cloud (red for bearish, green for bullish), the Tenkan (T) and Kijun (K) cross, Lagging Span (Chikou), and Senkou Span (A & B).

The status of the current Cloud metrics on the daily time frame with singled settings (10/30/60/30) for quicker signals are mixed and bullish; price is above Cloud, Cloud is bullish, the TK cross recently turned bearish, and the Lagging Span is above the Cloud, but touching price.

A long entry would have occurred with a positive TK cross and price breakthrough above the Cloud, i.e. Kumo breakout, around $0.059 (black arrow). From there, the trader could use either the Tenkan or Kijun as your trailing stop marker (triggered under this scenario). The TK has recently turned bearish with price approaching the Cloud.

If price retests the Cloud at the same time as the SWTO reaches oversold territory and turns bullish, that level is likely to hold before a new push higher. A price hold above the Cloud coupled with a resumed bullish TK cross, would trigger another long entry.

Using a 2 hour chart (not shown), the Cloud has narrowed, but price is still beneath it. However, the SWTO has recently turned bullish from oversold territory which may assist price’s attempt to breakthrough the two flat resistance levels of the Senkou A ($0.074 and $0.077).

The status of the current Cloud metrics on the daily time frame with doubled settings (20/60/120/30) for more accurate signals is mixed; price is in the Cloud, Cloud is slightly bullish, TK cross is bullish, and the Lagging Span is in the Cloud and touching price.

A traditional long entry should not occur until a bullish TK cross and price is above the Cloud with volume. The bearish portion of the Cloud is wide, but narrowing as it turns bullish. If the upward trend continues, price is likely to hit several resistance levels as it attempts to breakthrough the Cloud.

Ichimoku Clouds with Slow Wave Trend Oscillator and Fibonacci Retracement

Overlapping the quicker and slower settings on the daily chart, we see price has been using slow Kijun as support around $0.064 level and the fast Kijun as resistance around $0.081. If slow Kijun support breaks, the next support levels are $0.05, $0.041, and ~$0.03. If slow Kijun support holds, then a retest of the fibonacci level (0.786) and resistance level of ~$0.094 is likely. If price continues to march higher, then resistance levels that become price targets are $0.117 (flat Senkou A), $0.148 (0.618 fibonacci), and $0.186 (flat Senkou B and 0.50 fibonacci level).

Conclusion

As discussed, TRON has been a crypto project plagued with FUD and PR issues. Its grand ambitions, whitepaper issues and the inconsistent public image of its CEO have understandably raised doubts in the minds of many as to its long-term viability. The move to its own Mainnet could be a major step towards TRON delivering on its promises, however. If the migration sees TRON deliver on its fast transactions, zero fees promise— and create a new platform for developers, then a market attitude ‘reset’ towards TRON would certainly be justified and positive price patterns should continue through the rest of Q2 2018.

Tweet from David Gokhshtein - a Top 25 Crypto influencer with 144k twitter followers

TRX technicals are currently mixed, but pointing bullish. The prudent, shorter term trader will wait to see if price can maintain its current uptrend by staying above the Cloud with a bullish TK recross on (10/30/60/30) settings before entering a long position. Whereas, the prudent, longer term trader will wait for price to breakthrough the narrowing Cloud in combination with the existing bullish TK cross on (20/60/120/30) settings before entering a long position.

If price can hold its current up trend, then potential price targets to watch are $0.094, $0.117, $0.148, and $0.186. If price cannot maintain its current trajectory and falters, then support levels of $0.057, $0.05, $0.04, and $0.03 all become price targets over the same timeframe.

Disclaimer: This analysis has been designed for informational and educational purposes only. Readers are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual assets before making a purchase decision.



About the authors

Christopher Brookins

Christopher Brookins is the founder and CEO of Pugilist Ventures, a quantitative investment firm focused on digital assets and blockchain technology. Chris has a deep knowledge and unique perspective on digital assets formed by his polymath experience in equity trading, credit investing, and business development at two West Coast startups (one acquired). He has been involved in the blockchain community since 2014. Follow @chris__brookins

Aditya Das

Aditya Das is Brave New Coin's in-house market analyst. Raised in Dubai, UAE, he holds a post-graduate honors degree in Economics from the University of Auckland and a BA in Economics from the University of Sussex. Prior to joining BNC his most recent roles were as a researcher and Economics tutor at the University of Auckland.

‏Source bravenewcoin.com





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