The picture of Aylan Kurdi’s lifeless body being removed from a beach in Turkey last September shocked the world. But in the months that followed this tragedy, one might have be forgiven for thinking that the refugee crisis had abated. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth.

On Friday, at least 43 people, including 17 children, died when their boats got into trouble trying to reach Greece. The UN Refugee Agency reported last week that the number of arrivals on the Greek islands so far this year is 30,000, up from 1,700 in the same period last year.

An already desperate humanitarian situation is worsening and the number of people risking their lives to make the journey to safety in Europe is increasing dramatically as the spiral of violence in Syria deepens. Ultimately, only a political settlement to end the Syrian conflict, involving all regional actors and Russia, will end this crisis. While some progress towards a political settlement has been made, it’s clear there will be no quick fix. Europe is running out of time.

Controversially, the EU last year pledged at least €3bn (£2.27bn) for Turkey, in return for assurances that they will help to “stem the flow” of refugees. Angela Merkel continues to pressure the Turkish government to do more, but there is no indication this agreement has yet had any effect.

One credible option open to the international community, advocated by Sir Michael Graydon in The Independent on Sunday in November and which in my view should now be considered, would be to establish and enforce humanitarian corridors or safe havens in Syria, to provide areas of sanctuary for Syrians fleeing conflict, so they wouldn’t have to make the journey to neighbouring countries or Europe in the first place. But again, this calls for a drawn-out political process.

The sad reality is that after months of crisis summits, a solution to the refugee crisis is further away than ever – and we are approaching a crunch point. While the EU has laid out a road map for measures that need to be taken collectively at the European level, the political will is lacking.

As David Cameron is discovering, delivering change in Europe is hard work. It requires the agreement of 28 prime ministers, each one beholden to national coalitions and/or parties that too often prioritise opinion polls ratings over the collective interest.

Last September, EU leaders reluctantly agreed to a relocation scheme, to ensure all countries take their fair share of refugees. The UK opted out entirely. By any standard, this has been a pronounced failure, with only about 331 out of 160,000 refugees successfully relocated.

Refugee crisis - in pictures Show all 27 1 /27 Refugee crisis - in pictures Refugee crisis - in pictures A child looks through the fence at the Moria detention camp for migrants and refugees at the island of Lesbos on May 24, 2016. AFP/Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures Ahmad Zarour, 32, from Syria, reacts after his rescue by MOAS (Migrant Offshore Aid Station) while attempting to reach the Greek island of Agathonisi, Dodecanese, southeastern Agean Sea Refugee crisis - in pictures Syrian migrants holding life vests gather onto a pebble beach in the Yesil liman district of Canakkale, northwestern Turkey, after being stopped by Turkish police in their attempt to reach the Greek island of Lesbos on 29 January 2016. Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures Refugees flash the 'V for victory' sign during a demonstration as they block the Greek-Macedonian border Refugee crisis - in pictures Migrants have been braving sub zero temperatures as they cross the border from Macedonia into Serbia. Refugee crisis - in pictures A sinking boat is seen behind a Turkish gendarme off the coast of Canakkale's Bademli district on January 30, 2016. At least 33 migrants drowned on January 30 when their boat sank in the Aegean Sea while trying to cross from Turkey to Greece. Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures A general view of a shelter for migrants inside a hangar of the former Tempelhof airport in Berlin, Germany Refugee crisis - in pictures Refugees protest behind a fence against restrictions limiting passage at the Greek-Macedonian border, near Gevgelija. Since last week, Macedonia has restricted passage to northern Europe to only Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans who are considered war refugees. All other nationalities are deemed economic migrants and told to turn back. Macedonia has finished building a fence on its frontier with Greece becoming the latest country in Europe to build a border barrier aimed at checking the flow of refugees Refugee crisis - in pictures A father and his child wait after being caught by Turkish gendarme on 27 January 2016 at Canakkale's Kucukkuyu district Refugee crisis - in pictures Migrants make hand signals as they arrive into the southern Spanish port of Malaga on 27 January, 2016 after an inflatable boat carrying 55 Africans, seven of them women and six chidren, was rescued by the Spanish coast guard off the Spanish coast. Refugee crisis - in pictures A refugee holds two children as dozens arrive on an overcrowded boat on the Greek island of Lesbos Refugee crisis - in pictures A child, covered by emergency blankets, reacts as she arrives, with other refugees and migrants, on the Greek island of Lesbos, At least five migrants including three children, died after four boats sank between Turkey and Greece, as rescue workers searched the sea for dozens more, the Greek coastguard said Refugee crisis - in pictures Migrants wait under outside the Moria registration camp on the Lesbos. Over 400,000 people have landed on Greek islands from neighbouring Turkey since the beginning of the year Refugee crisis - in pictures The bodies of Christian refugees are buried separately from Muslim refugees at the Agios Panteleimonas cemetery in Mytilene, Lesbos Refugee crisis - in pictures Macedonian police officers control a crowd of refugees as they prepare to enter a camp after crossing the Greek border into Macedonia near Gevgelija Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures A refugee tries to force the entry to a camp as Macedonian police officers control a crowd after crossing the Greek border into Macedonia near Gevgelija Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures Refugees are seen aboard a Turkish fishing boat as they arrive on the Greek island of Lesbos after crossing a part of the Aegean Sea from the Turkish coast to Lesbos Reuters Refugee crisis - in pictures An elderly woman sings a lullaby to baby on a beach after arriving with other refugees on the Greek island of Lesbos after crossing the Aegean sea from Turkey Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures A man collapses as refugees make land from an overloaded rubber dinghy after crossing the Aegean see from Turkey, at the island of Lesbos EPA Refugee crisis - in pictures A girl reacts as refugees arrive by boat on the Greek island of Lesbos after crossing the Aegean sea from Turkey Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures Refugees make a show of hands as they queue after crossing the Greek border into Macedonia near Gevgelija Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures People help a wheelchair user board a train with others, heading towards Serbia, at the transit camp for refugees near the southern Macedonian town of Gevgelija AP Refugee crisis - in pictures Refugees board a train, after crossing the Greek-Macedonian border, near Gevgelija. Macedonia is a key transit country in the Balkans migration route into the EU, with thousands of asylum seekers - many of them from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia - entering the country every day Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures An aerial picture shows the "New Jungle" refugee camp where some 3,500 people live while they attempt to enter Britain, near the port of Calais, northern France Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures A Syrian girl reacts as she helped by a volunteer upon her arrival from Turkey on the Greek island of Lesbos, after having crossed the Aegean Sea EPA Refugee crisis - in pictures Refugees arrive by boat on the Greek island of Lesbos after crossing the Aegean sea from Turkey Getty Images Refugee crisis - in pictures Beds ready for use for migrants and refugees are prepared at a processing center on January 27, 2016 in Passau, Germany. The flow of migrants arriving in Passau has dropped to between 500 and 1,000 per day, down significantly from last November, when in the same region up to 6,000 migrants were arriving daily.

Depressingly, EU leaders appear to be competing to make more and more outrageous and discriminatory statements, in what can only be interpreted as an attempt to deter refugees, waved on by Greece, from applying for asylum in their countries. The horrific assaults carried out by criminals in Cologne at New Year have provided fuel for nationalists like Ukip and galvanised their far-right bedfellows across Europe. So long as EU leaders continue to pander to these nationalist parties, instead of confronting them and doing what is right, the hopes of a united European solution become even more remote.

Even Angela Merkel, whose open-door policy on refugees won her global acclaim, is now coming under enormous pressure from within her party to change course. The latest polls show support for Merkel’s party could be collapsing, while there’s internal disarray in her party. The Eurosceptic and right-wing AfD party, emboldened by the financial support and political platform provided by membership of Mr Cameron’s Eurosceptic pan-EU political group, is on the rise. With three significant state elections due in March, including two where her party had hopes of victory, the pressure on Ms Merkel to impose quotas or even close borders to refugees completely, will grow. But the consequences of her doing so are profound.

The German Chancellor therefore faces a ghastly dilemma. If she gives in to pressure to close the German border, those current, creaking European systems that we do have (like the Schengen agreement) are likely to fall apart. If she holds her nerve and keeps the German borders open to refugees, she is likely to be destroyed politically. Those EU leaders who have not only refused to accept their fair share of the refugees but have gone out of their way to inflame tensions should hang their heads in shame.

If 2015 was an “annus horribilis” for the continent of Europe, 2016 will be even tougher. The risk of Brexit, Grexit, an expansionist Russia, the threat of further terrorist atrocities, combined with an uncertain economic outlook and an unresolved debt crisis, mean 2016 is a make or break year.

There is widely held view that the EU makes progress only at times of crisis. We now face a number of crises that no one EU country can tackle on its own. Yet Europe remains firmly in reverse gear. European leaders can blame no one but themselves for the chaos that will ensue if Germany closes its borders. Genuine asylum seekers, fleeing war and persecution, are the last people who should suffer because of our self-imposed chaos.

The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, said last week that the EU has six to eight weeks before national borders go up again across Europe. Mr Cameron reportedly wants an early referendum on Britain’s EU membership in order to prevent images of drowning migrants this summer affecting the outcome of the vote. But isn’t that putting the cart before the horse?

Time-consuming negotiations with the UK should be postponed and EU leaders should instead be locked in a room until they agree on a comprehensive and collective strategy to tackle this growing refugee crisis before it’s too late. This is about more than politics. It’s about humanity.