John Kerry faced nearly universal skepticism when he set out to get Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table after five years of shuttle diplomacy. Now that he has succeeded against all odds, that pessimism will shift to the prospects for an actual agreement. Nobody has ever gone broke betting against Israeli-Palestinian peace—I certainly wouldn’t take even money on the chances this time around—and there remain many obstacles and unanswered questions (Will Hamas and other regional spoilers torpedo the process? Can an Israeli government confront an entrenched settlement enterprise? Are both leaders prepared to make the compromises that will be necessary for an agreement?) And yet, as I argued in my March story on the two-state solution, the basic conditions for Israeli-Palestinian peace remain—at least for now—and some of them have begun to seem even more favorable in recent months.

1. John Kerry

Not since James Baker cajoled the Arabs and Israelis to the Madrid Conference in 1991 has a secretary of state invested so much time and political capital in the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Kerry made six trips here since being confirmed in January, spending hours on end with Netanyahu and Abbas. It’s a preview of the hands-on involvement we can expect as these talks get underway. Intense American mediation is, of course, not sufficient for peace—the difficult decisions will have to be made by the two leaders—but it is necessary: Virtually no achievement in Arab-Israeli diplomacy over the past 40 years has come but for the involvement of the United States. Should these negotiations become serious, it will take American bridging proposals to seal a deal. And it will take American prestige, money, and potentially military forces (see: Jordan Valley) to guarantee one. If any American can successfully navigate the minefields of the coming process, it is Kerry, who is intimately acquainted with the issues and the personalities (it was the trust he had with both Netanyahu and Abbas that enabled him to overcome their mutual suspicion). Barack Obama already has his Nobel Peace Prize. Kerry seems to view Middle East peace as the key to his.

2. Benjamin Netanyahu

Netanyahu is both a reason for pessimism and optimism. The reasons for the former are obvious to any casual observer of Israeli politics: Bibi is a lifelong hardliner who has long warned of the dangers of Palestinian statehood and has vowed never to make concessions on certain issues (like Jerusalem) that will require them. But it is for those reasons why Netanyahu—and only Netanyahu—can pull a Nixon-to-China (or Sharon-out-of-Gaza) and not only reach an agreement, but implement one. Nobody can read Netanyahu’s mind, but as I wrote recently, there are signs that he may be following in the footsteps of past right-wingers who have come around to the necessity of reaching an agreement with the Palestinians: He is warning of the specter of Israel becoming a binational state. He is reportedly considering territorial concessions that would have once been unthinkable for him.