Tonight’s meet up between the Portland Trail Blazers and Milwaukee Bucks is notable both as an inter-conference meeting, but also as a spotlight on two franchises who are going through some major shifts in makeup and strategy this season. While many pegged the Trail Blazers to struggle in a stacked Western Conference after losing 4 out of the 5 members of their regular starting 5 last season, Portland has done well enough thus far to remain only a game out of playoff position in the early season. They have only a 3-7 record on the road and come to Milwaukee for the second game in a four game road trip. Let’s meet the new-look Trail Blazers in tonight’s preview!

The Logistics

When – 7:00 PM Central

Where – BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI

TV & Radio – FS Wisconsin; 620 WTMJ

Probable Starters

Portland Trail Blazers (9-12) Milwaukee Bucks (8-13) Damien Lillard PG Michael Carter-Williams/OJ Mayo CJ McCollum SG Khris Middleton Al-Farouq Aminu SF Giannis Antetokounmpo Noah Vonleh PF Jabari Parker Mason Plumlee C Greg Monroe

Storylines of the Night

Trail Blazers Update

There are few teams that can essentially lose all of their firepower in a single off-season and still come out of it on the other side with some semblance of hope for the future. The Trail Blazers appear to be one of those teams. Once perennial playoff standouts in the West behind the combined might of LaMarcus Aldridge (who left for San Antonio in FA) and Damien Lillard (recently signed to a max contract extension), the Blazers concurrently lost Robin Lopez (to the Knicks) and Wes Matthews (to Dallas) in free agency while moving Nicolas Batum to Charlotte in exchange for sophomore PF Noah Vonleh and Gerald Henderson.

They might’ve been left for dead, but Portland wasn’t simply going to lie down, and the emergence of CJ McCollum alongside Lillard has been a fantastic driver for success this year. McCollum, in his 3rd season with Portland, has seen a huge increase in role and minutes in the starting lineup, and he’s rewarded that trend with corresponding great play. Per 36 he’s giving roughly 20.0 points (.427/.390/.881 percentages for a TS% of 52.4%), 3.8 assists, and 3.7 rebounds. He’s actually taking fewer 3s on percentage than in the past, and functions within the offense as a viable floor stretcher who can hit from a variety of locations on the floor. Given Lillard’s tendency to be headstrong and inclined to drive to the basket more often than not, McCollum has benefited as a catch-and-shoot guy on the receiving end of kick-outs. Being surrounded by a variety of shooters doesn’t hurt much either, and keeping track of McCollum tonight is quite the shift from previous years spotlighting Aldridge.

For the Bucks, they’ll be faced once more with an opposing offense that specializes in 3P shooting taking the 7th most 3s/game and holding the 7th best % from distance. A majority of Portland’s scheme plants Plumlee at or around the post and spaces the rest of the floor. This is a strategy that has hurt the Bucks in the past given the hectic defense primarily utilized, so the game may be won or lost largely based on the rhythm of the Trail Blazers.

Lillard the Revolving-Door Supernova

A lot for Portland starts and ends with how Damien Lillard happens to be feeling on a night to night basis. Without the need to necessarily share the ball to any other dominant scorer, Lillard has seen his USG% shoot from 26.9% to 30.9%. He’s able to score in virtually every facet and has quite the touch around the basket, but he also likes to suffer from James Harden Syndrome. For the most part, he’s a revolving door against his man, and it falls largely on the shoulders of his teammates to correct a large majority of his mistakes. To quantify this, just take a look at the rating on-off stats:

On: OFF – 106.6 DEF – 105.8

Off: OFF – 92.4 DEF – 96.0

So, uh, yeah that’s quite the difference. Apparently these sorts of numbers haven’t hurt the Blazers too adversely, especially with other teammates picking up roles on offense, but as in the recent past, how Lillard goes tends to be where his team follows.

Making it Count on Offense

A starting five of Mayo, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, Parker, and Monroe did quite a bit of damage Saturday night against the Knicks, and it would be reasonable to expect a similar lineup this evening. Each player appears to be better rounding a bit into form offensively, and Portland sports the 6th worst defensive rating in the league (106.1). Perhaps there’s a recipe for success in that mix?

Getting plenty of action from the guard corps early on and keeping pace with the Blazers could be a viable strategy, especially with Lillard still being a virtual black hole on defense. The difference swapping out Lillard, Aminu, and Plumlee for Allen Crabbe, Ed Davis, and Maurice Harkless results in a defensive rating differential of 13.9 (!) with a subsequent drop off on offense of 18.1. Thus, matching basket for basket can get the Bucks quite far, and clamping down in any positive sense on defense against the Portland starters should unravel the Blazers from the start.

Will OJ Mayo be up to the challenge? Will Khris Middleton keep confusingly posting up on the block instead of sitting on the perimeter? How many oddly satisfying dunks will Parker register tonight? All that and more will find an answer soon enough!