Republican Bruce Rauner insisted he had no social policy agenda when he campaigned for Illinois governor in 2014, and even showcased his socially liberal wife in TV ads to prove it. Earlier this year, the governor took another step to remind his blue-state constituents of his distance from the national GOP: He and his wife cut a $50,000 check to Planned Parenthood.

But if Rauner thought that would insulate him from the roiling abortion politics of the moment, he was wrong. After announcing recently he’ll veto abortion legislation known as HB40, the governor is caught up in a maelstrom that threatens to derail his reelection in 2018.


The HB40 conflict centers on a Democratic-sponsored measure to keep abortion legal in Illinois if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade and calls for expanding abortion coverage under Medicaid and in state worker health plans.

The bill put Rauner, who supports abortion rights, in a vise. Despite being governed by Democrats for years, Illinois is one of a handful of states that has “trigger” language on the books that threatens to automatically make abortion illegal if the high court overturns Roe. So if the governor vetoes the measure, it opens him to criticism that he isn’t a committed supporter of abortion rights at a time when President Donald Trump’s abortion policies have raised alarms.

But if Rauner signs the measure into law, he stands to alienate a restive Republican base that looked at him askance after his big contribution to Planned Parenthood.

Rauner is in a no-win situation, says Kent Redfield, who has long studied Illinois governors, and is professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois-Springfield.

"He really has a dilemma. He stands to lose the enthusiasm of the conservative base in 2018 or face an issue where Democrats can peel off suburban voters ... pegging him as a flip flopper," Redfield said. "It's a lose-lose situation in terms of what he's facing with that bill."

Whether Roe v. Wade is really on the verge of being overturned, and what role Illinois’ trigger law would actually play if Roe is overturned, are in question. But for both sides, it doesn’t really matter. Neil Gorsuch’s confirmed seat on the Supreme Court, the president’s campaign rhetoric surrounding abortion and his subsequent moves to reinstitute the so-called Mexico City Policy and scrap Planned Parenthood's taxpayer funding, has been enough to fire up the bases — on the left and the right.

The left see this as a signature moment to defend Illinois' left-leaning credentials and maintain the Land of Lincoln’s status as a liberal beacon amid neighbors with more conservative abortion laws — among them Missouri, Wisconsin and Vice President Mike Pence's Indiana.

The right sees it as a time for Rauner to choose sides, with conservatives delivering an ultimatum declaring that Rauner can expect to lose their support if he signs the bill.

Rauner, widely viewed as one of the most vulnerable governors in the nation in 2018, sided with conservatives.

“I think one of the things he's done, as long as he stays consistent, is to greatly shore up much of his base. The majority of his base is pro-life, to say nothing of the issue to fund abortion,” said Paul Caprio, who heads Family PAC, a socially conservative committee. Had Rauner not promised a veto: “He would have been in a position, frankly, untenable with many of those voters. I think that he probably realized that.”

Rauner tried explaining that he still supports women’s reproductive issues.

“I have always been and I always will be a strong supporter and protector of women's reproductive rights,” Rauner said after announcing his veto promise. “We in Illinois have good existing law. I always have and I always will support existing Illinois law ... Expanding taxpayer funding is a very divisive issue. It's a very controversial issue. What we need to do is focus in Illinois. We need to protect existing Illinois law. We need to focus on jobs. We need to focus on reducing property taxes. We need to focus on education funding.”

But the pressure has only intensified on the Rauners, including Illinois First Lady Diana Rauner, who starred in TV campaign ads touting her husband’s moderate views and vouching that he had no conservative social policy agenda.

The conflicts come in layers for the Rauners. A Planned Parenthood event last week in Chicago honored Diana Rauner for supporting the group for three decades. Outside, a group opposing abortion rights picketed the event. Inside the event, those on the left trolled the first lady, live-texting messages critical of her husband that appeared over a screen meant to tout that night’s donations.

This week, a neighbor who lives nearby the Rauners’ North Shore home hosted a fundraiser for the abortion rights group, Personal PAC, which has become the governor’s chief critic over what they call a flip-flip on his campaign promises on abortion. At the event, the group’s CEO Terry Cosgrove held up a questionnaire that Rauner filled out when he was running for the office, which included his written support for expanding abortion coverage for the poor and for state workers.

“I read slowly from his 2014 candidate questionnaire — and there were audible gasps in the room as I did — pointing to his Winnetka house through the living room window of the hosts’ home,” Cosgrove said. “They are beyond furious with him and Diana over the HB40 veto threat, feel betrayed and are 100 percent on board with Personal PAC to convince him to sign the bill and keep his 2014 written promise to do so ... Some apologized to me personally for voting for him. I told them, all that matters now is that they do everything they can to convince him to sign HB40.”

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However, a threat of a different kind is waiting for Rauner should he go back on his word and allow HB40 to become law.

“If that were to happen, that would be a disaster for him with his base,” Caprio said. “I think he would definitely have an opponent in the primary if he were to do something as foolish as that.”

