L ong before the Isis caliphate met its downfall, before it lost its first battle, when its brutal fighters ruled over a land that spread across two countries and carried out massacres at will, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi knew he was on borrowed time.

Such are the perils of leading an international terror organisation that a contingency plan for his demise would have been in place for some time. Isis was and is a deeply bureaucratic organisation.

Soon, the group will announce a successor, continue to rebuild and attempt to show its strength with more attacks. None of which detracts from what will be a huge blow to the terror group, both symbolically and practically.

Baghdadi was responsible for untold deaths and suffering: under his command, Isis committed genocide against the Yazidi people and took thousands of women as slaves. It murdered hostages and massacred civilians – most of them Muslims in Iraq and Syria.

Born in the Iraqi city of Samarra in 1971 and radicalised by the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Baghdadi claimed to have descended from the prophet Muhammad. His background in religious instruction gave him legitimacy in the eyes of his jihadist followers.

Timeline of the Isis caliphate Show all 19 1 /19 Timeline of the Isis caliphate Timeline of the Isis caliphate ISIS began as a group by the merging of extremist organisations ISI and al-Nusra in 2013. Following clashes, Syrian rebels captured the ISIS headquarters in Aleppo in January 2014 (pictured) AFP/Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi declared the creation of a caliphate in Mosul on 27 June 2014 Timeline of the Isis caliphate Isis conquered the Kurdish towns of Sinjar and Zumar in August 2014, forcing thousands of civilians to flee their homes. Pictured are a group of Yazidi Kurds who have fled Rex Timeline of the Isis caliphate On September 2 2014 Isis released a video depicting the beheading of US journalist Steven Sotloff. On September 13 they released another video showing the execution of British aid worker David Haines Timeline of the Isis caliphate The US launched its first airstrikes against Isis in Syria on 23 September 2014. Here Lt Gen William C Mayville Jnr speaks about the bombing campaign in the wake of the first strikes Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Isis militants sit atop a hill planted with their flag in the Syrian town of Kobani on 6 October 2014. They had been advancing on Kobani since mid-September and by now was in control of the city’s entrance and exit points AFP/Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Residents of the border village of Alizar keep guard day and night as they wait in fear of mortar fire from Isis who have occupied the nearby city of Kobani Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Smoke rises following a US airstrike on Kobani, 28 October 2014 AFP/Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate YPG fighters raise a flag as they reclaim Kobani on 26 January 2015 VOA Timeline of the Isis caliphate Isis seized the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra on 20 May 2015. This image show the city from above days after its capture by Isis Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Kurdish forces are stationed on a hill above the town of Sinjar as smoke rises following US airstrikes on 12 November 2015 AFP/Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Kurdish forces enter Sinjar after seizing it from Isis control on 13 November 2015 AFP/Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Iraqi government forces make the victory sign as they retake the city of Fallujah from ISIS on 26 June 2016 Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Iraqi forces battle with Isis for the city of Mosul on 30 June 2017 AFP/Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Members of the Iraqi federal police raise flags in Mosul on 8 July 2017. On the following day, Iraqi prime minister Haider Al Abadi declares victory over Isis in Mosul Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Members of Syrian Democratic Forces celebrate in Al-Naim square after taking back the city of Raqqa from Isis. US-backed Syrian forces declare victory over Isis in Raqqa on 20 October 2017 after a four-month long campaign Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Female fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces celebrate in Al-Naim Square after taking back the city of Raqqa from Isis. US-backed Syrian forces declare victory over Isis in Raqqa on 20 October 2017 after a four-month long campaign AFP/Getty Timeline of the Isis caliphate Trucks full of women and children arrive from the last Isis-held areas in Deir ez-Zor, Syria in January 2019 They were among the last civilians to be living in the ISIS caliphate, by this time reduced to just two small villages in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor Richard Hall/The Independent Timeline of the Isis caliphate Zikia Ibrahim, 28, with her two-year-old son and 8-month-old daughter, after fleeing the Isis caliphate, on Saturday 26 January 2019 Richard Hall/The Independent

He would prove to be as effective as he was evil. In a few short years, he took the organisation from an underground insurgency to a proto-state that ruled over millions of people.

In a statement delivered from the White House on Sunday morning, US president Donald Trump struck a triumphant tone as he described Baghdadi’s death in grisly detail.

“He died like a dog. He died like a coward. The world is now a much safer place,” he said. “Baghdadi’s demise demonstrates America’s relentless pursuit of terrorist leaders,” he added.

And yet, Baghdadi’s death will not be the end of Isis. In fact, his death comes at a time when Trump’s policy in Syria may be assisting its resurgence.

A chaotic partial withdrawal of US troops from the Syrian border earlier this month precipitated a new round of conflict in northeast Syria, just months after the caliphate was defeated there.

Turkish troops launched an attack against Kurdish forces, a key US ally in the fight against Isis, just days after the Trump administration said the US would not stand in its way.

More than 200,000 people have since been displaced in the fighting. Dozens of civilians have been killed and more than 100 Isis prisoners are thought to have escaped.

The SDF, which worked alongside the US military to defeat Isis in Syria, has slowed its operations against sleeper cells in order to fight Turkey and its Syrian proxies.

The US troop presence in Syria, while small in number, had acted as a deterrence for a Turkish attack against the SDF, which Ankara views as a terror group for its ties to Kurdish separatists in Turkey.

“Eliminating a terrorist leader of this significance and prominence is a major accomplishment for the intelligence and military personnel who made it possible. And it’s a serious step in degrading Isis’s ability to continue radicalising and recruiting,” said Joshua A Geltzer, a former senior director for counterterrorism on the National Security Council in the Obama administration.

“But the group is bigger than Baghdadi, and this operation alone doesn’t come close to overcoming the strategic error Trump made in abandoning America’s top ground partners in the fight against Isis – a fight that’s far from over.”

In its response to Baghdadi’s death, the SDF reiterated that the Turkish operation that Trump gave a green light to has provided “a fertile ground for the revival of Isis and threatens the region and the entire international community”.

Adding to the confusion over his policy in Syria, Trump repeated his desire on Sunday to use US military personnel to protect oil fields in the east of the country, identifying it as a top priority.

Men who fled the last Isis-held area of Syria line up to be questioned by American and Kurdish intelligence officials (Richard Hall)

After leaving the Syria-Turkey border region to get out of the way of Turkey’s military operation, and crossing into Syria, the US sent troops back into Syria again to guard oil fields.

“We don’t want to keep soldiers between Syria and Turkey for the next 200 years,” Trump told reporters after his address on Sunday. “We’re out, but we are leaving soldiers to secure the oil.”

In these conditions, analysts warn, the dangers of an Isis comeback only increase. As the US retreats further from Syria, operations such as the one that killed Baghdadi will be harder to carry out.

“In the interim, Isis will likely suffer from uncertainty, as the power shift occurs, but ultimately, the extent of instability, vacuums and opportunities presented in Syria and Iraq are of far more advantage than the loss of a leader,” said Charles Lister, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of The Syrian Jihad.

“Perhaps more importantly, Baghdadi’s death gives Trump his best excuse yet to see ‘Syria’ as a job done and dusted. That would be extremely unwise, as this is precisely the time when the hammer should be placed squarely and intensively on Isis’s head, to better ensure that it can’t recover in the way we all fear,” he added.