Mike Cronin

mcronin@citizen-times.com

Southern Appalachia and the southeastern United States likely will experience intensification of drought conditions through the end of September, according to data released Thursday by federal climate scientists.

“The outlook for Southern Appalachia is short-term warmth and dryness,” Deke Arndt, the National Centers for Environmental Information chief based in Asheville, said during a Thursday conference call with reporters.

Higher temperatures are probable in the Southeast from July through September, said Brad Pugh, a meteorologist and seasonal forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.

Globally, the month of May marked the 13th consecutive month that a new high average temperature was recorded, Arndt said.

March through May and January through May, respectively, also set the highest global temperatures on record, he said.

Global temperatures on land and ocean surfaces in May averaged 60.17° Fahrenheit, breaking the May record set last year by 0.04° Fahrenheit.

The March-May average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 58.61°F, breaking the record set in 2015 by 0.40°F.

The 2016 global average temperature could break the 2015 record as the warmest ever, Arndt said.

The year-to-date temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 57.44°F. That surpassed last year’s record by 0.43°F.

“We're head and shoulders above 2015,” Arndt said.

Whether the heat will continue, however, remains to be seen.

That’s because an El Niño is coming to a conclusion and shifting to a La Niña.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon linked to warming ocean temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.

Consequences include warmer-than-average temperatures over the western and northern United States; wetter-than-average conditions over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida; and drier-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest.

La Niña is a climate phenomenon in which the opposite occurs: below-average ocean temperatures in those areas of the Pacific.

Consequences include warmer winter temperatures in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.