Exclusive: Storms, flooding and heatwaves could severely impact the city by 2050, an in-depth study reveals

Vital roads, bridges, rail lines and hospitals in the Glasgow area are at significant risk of being damaged or closed by climate change, a major study has found.

The study, thought to be the most in-depth carried out for any city region in the UK, said that by 2050 the area will be hit by far more powerful storms, by regular heatwaves and by heavy winter flooding, affecting up to 1.8 million people.

That could see hospitals struggling to cope with abnormal temperatures or flooding, long stretches of motorway closed by floods, the West Highland line at risk of closure from coastal erosion and bridges at greater risk from gale-force winds.

The review by Climate Ready Clyde, a coalition of six councils, transport agencies, universities and government agencies, covers an area of about 3,400 km2 (1,300 sq miles) and includes major towns such as Hamilton, Motherwell, East Kilbride and Paisley. It was published on Wednesday to mark UN World Cities day.

With findings likely to be replicated across the UK, it has warned that failing to adapt and prepare for climate change could cost the Glasgow region several hundred million pounds a year by the 2050s from storm, flooding and heatwave impacts.

In a new five-year plan for the region, the group will recommend including better physical and natural flood defences, more air conditioning and ventilation systems, greater tree cover and greater use of green roofs, and wind barriers on bridges. Some councils could seek new powers to issue their own bonds, to raise money from investors to cover the extra costs.

If coastal erosion accelerates, several hundred metres of the West Highland line to Fort William will be threatened by the sea along the north Clyde coastline near Ardmore Point, Cardross and Dumbarton. Long stretches of coast have already been eroded significantly.

Other sites most at risk include:

• the Erskine bridge over the Clyde, which carries 38,000 cars a day, will see “extreme exposure” to stronger gales and could require costly wind barriers

• the M74 motorway near Hamilton and the M8 in central Glasgow, used by 97,000 cars a day, is at high risk of flooding

• the Royal Alexandra teaching hospital in Paisley is at high risk of surface water flooding and medium to high risk of river flooding

• the poorest neighbourhoods of north and east Glasgow are the most vulnerable to the economic and social impacts of heatwaves and flooding

Kit England, project manager at Climate Ready Clyde, said the NHS, Transport Scotland, Network Rail and local councils are carrying out more detailed studies to make sure they could forecast risks to their buildings and infrastructure.

Glasgow had a hint of the heatwaves to come last June, he said, when temperatures nearly hit 32C, the city’s hottest day on record. A waterproofing membrane lining the roof of the Glasgow science centre melted, while suburban rail lines closed after rails buckled and signalling systems failed.

Warning that the poorest citizens are likely to be the worst affected, its assessment assumes that world governments will fail to meet the target to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C recommended earlier this month by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

It has reviewed two scenarios where the world warms by 2C and 4C. Climate scientists forecast that the chances of Glasgow experiencing a summer heatwave by the 2050s will be one in three, compared to 1 in 30 for Aberdeen. Winter rainfall could increase by 50% by the 2080s while sea levels in the Firth of Clyde are forecast to rise by nearly half a metre by the 2080s.

James Curran, the former chief executive of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, who chairs Climate Ready Clyde, said warming is already influencing today’s weather patterns.

“We know climate change is with us and there is no natural weather left in the world,” he said. “We have to start adapting for it as well as continuing to press the urgent case for reducing carbon emissions and promoting carbon sequestration and so on.”

Curran said weather-proofing urban areas would also provide business opportunities and an economic stimulus, offsetting the costs of climate adaptation. The challenge was ensuring all levels of government, transport bodies and businesses collaborated effectively and at a regional level.

Network Rail said it spent some £25m a year in Scotland on earthworks and drainage, but added it would need see dramatic changes to the north Clyde coastline before doing work to specially protect the West Highland line.