Republicans plan to make New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio a boogeyman in the special election. A blue shadow over race for Grimm's seat The campaign in Staten Island will play out in wake of Eric Garner case, officers’ slayings.

Staten Island is not Manhattan. It’s New York City’s only right-leaning bastion: a majority-white, blue-collar borough where a disproportionate number of cops lay down their badge at the end of the day.

Soon, it’ll be the scene of a special congressional election that could become an outlet for rage over police treatment of African-Americans — as well as the frustrations of officers eager to defend their reputations.


The race to replace outgoing GOP Rep. Michael Grimm will feature many of the characters who have played central roles in the unfolding drama surrounding the death of Eric Garner, a 43-year-old black man from Staten Island who died in July after police placed him in a chokehold.

There’s New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, whom police leaders allege has fostered anti-law enforcement demonstrations — criticism that reached new heights after two police officers were gunned down on Dec. 20. Already Republicans plan to make the Democratic mayor a boogeyman in the special election. There are the law enforcement groups which will likely make key endorsements. And there’s Republican Daniel Donovan, the prosecutor who oversaw a grand jury investigation that ultimately declined to file charges against police in the Garner case — and who is thinking about running to replace Grimm.

( Also on POLITICO: Michael Grimm resigning)

“New York City is a place of very strong opinions on every issue,” said Evan Stavisky, a Democratic political consultant in the city who has worked on a number of competitive congressional races. “Nowhere is that more true than Staten Island, and never has that been more true than in the aftermath of Eric Garner’s death.”

Grimm, who was first elected to Congress in 2010, said Monday he is stepping down after pleading guilty to a federal charge of tax evasion tied to his past management of a Manhattan health food restaurant. It will now be up to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, to set the date of the special election to replace Grimm, whose resignation is effective Jan. 5.

Even if national attention to the issue of police tactics lessens by the time the special election is held, in this district — which was carried by John McCain in 2008 and where whites make up over 70 percent of the population — the issue is likely to have continued resonance if only because so many police and firefighters call it home. Many of them have grown increasingly defensive since the slayings of the two officers in Brooklyn, committed by a troubled man ostensibly in retaliation for Garner’s death.

Although Donovan, a 58-year-old veteran of Staten Island politics, hasn’t announced his candidacy, he’s already winning the support of top police brass. One union group, the Captains Endowment Association, called him “a terrific public servant … We would encourage him to run to lend his voice on a national level.”

( Also on POLITICO: Garner prosecutor 'very seriously considering' running for Grimm seat)

On Tuesday, Donovan said in a statement that he is “deeply flattered by the enthusiastic expressions of support I have received over the last 12 hours, and I am very seriously considering the race.”

There are other possible Republican candidates, including state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, a Grimm ally. Democrats, meanwhile, identify former Rep. Michael McMahon, whom Grimm defeated in 2010, and state Assemblyman Michael Cusick as their best options. New York law does not provide for primaries for special elections, so party leaders will pick the nominees.

Democrats, who failed to knock out Grimm in November’s midterms despite the fact that he had a 20-count indictment hanging over him, are at a disadvantage in the Republican-leaning district. But some in the party see an opportunity to use the Garner case against Donovan, arguing that there are lingering doubts — particularly among more liberal voters, many of whom reside in Staten Island’s North Shore area —about whether he pushed hard enough for an indictment. Garner’s encounter with police was caught on tape.

“There are a lot of people who saw that video who thought it should have produced some sort of indictment,” said Allen Cappelli, a Staten Island-based Democratic political consultant. “People have questions as to what took place here.”

( Also on POLITICO: GOP leaders refuse to weigh in on Grimm)

Republicans contend that Donovan would be able to survive any attacks on his management of the Garner case, arguing that the area’s conservative bent, not to mention its large contingent of police officers, would provide him with a cushion.

“New Yorkers on the whole wanted an indictment. But that’s not the case for Staten Islanders. Staten Islanders support the NYPD,” said Steven Stites, a Republican consultant from New York City. “If the campaign comes down to the police against the left-wing protesters and the mayor then that’s a conversation I think Dan Donovan would like to have.”

Republicans say they are developing a campaign playbook centered on tying the eventual Democratic nominee to de Blasio, who is deeply unpopular in the district. A month after Garner’s death, a poll showed the Democratic mayor’s approval rating in Staten Island at just 25 percent.

Any Republican nominee, they say, would appeal to police unions, who have accused de Blasio of siding with protesters following Garner’s death. (On Tuesday, de Blasio met with police union leaders in hopes of addressing the widening rift.)

“De Blasio is a double-zero,” said former Republican Rep. Guy Molinari, a Staten Island political boss who on Tuesday offered an early endorsement to Donovan. “People don’t like him at all anymore. He’s a dead duck.”

Staten Island Democratic Party Chairman John Gulino argued that the Garner episode wouldn’t be a dominant factor in the special election, contending that lingering concerns over the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy and long-term problems related to traffic, infrastructure and drugs are more likely to drive the electorate.

“We intend to win the race. We intend to have an excellent candidate,” Gulino said, adding that he’s been on the lookout for potential Democratic candidates.

“People on Staten Island have their own issues, their own identity. Any candidate out here … knows the issues of this island. I don’t think what’s happening [between protesters and police] affects this as much as you think.”