(CNN) Fresh from a stinging defeat by Nancy Pelosi , Donald Trump now heads into what in the long run may be even more critical negotiations -- and with a wilier opponent: China's Xi Jinping.

And as deeply as Pelosi understood Trump, especially his fatal flaws of ego and hubris, Xi may be in an even better position to outmaneuver the American president. The Chinese leader is in the enviable position of having watched and absorbed how thoroughly Trump crumpled over the past month in the face of an adversary he vastly underestimated.

The next round in the potential Unraveling of a Deal begins on Wednesday when Xi's top trade negotiator, the redoubtable Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, opens two days of talks in Washington.

For some time, Trump has been telegraphing his punches , claiming that China's economy is suffering far more than America's and therefore its leadership is prepared to cave at any moment in the face of strength and determination.

But Trump has clearly been ignoring some early hints of just how badly an escalation of the trade war could play in the United States -- the stock markets whipsawing investors with every whisper of deal-or-no-deal, and farmers losing a stable and lucrative market . Layer onto these challenges the looming threat of another government shutdown in three weeks , and Trump may find his back very much against a wall, forced to cave yet again.

At the same time, Xi has been deftly covering his own back, laying the basis for a difficult year ahead for China that he appears quite confident he'll master. Just last week, he summoned regional and ministerial-level officials to a four-day "seminar" on "preventing and defusing major risks to ensure sustained and healthy economic development and social stability," according to the state news agency Xinhua.

At the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, Xi laid out a whole program to deal with "profound and complicated international and domestic changes," including financing for small and micro businesses and stabilizing employment.

It is of course deeply important for Xi to arrive at some resolution to help reenergize the flagging Chinese economy that is facing any number of interrelated challenges as well. Still, the monolithic Chinese system can withstand challenges that may be utterly beyond the reach of any democratically elected leader.

On many levels, the parallels with the Pelosi-Trump showdown are striking. Democrats refused to buckle and fund his wall to get 800,000 Americans back to work, and with the US heading toward zero growth and systemic threats to its economic stability had the crisis continued.

How likely is it that Trump can pull a similar game of chicken with China? This time, his challenger is a president-for-life atop a monolithic party that maintains utter control over a nation of 1.4 billion people with a 6% growth rate , even if its industrial output is slowing gradually.

So, while Xi has been laying the groundwork for pain, Trump has already been deeply wounded, with the question hanging of his ability to weather another, even deeper challenge to the American economy and his leadership so soon after the monthlong government shutdown.

Stilll, Xi does seem motivated to make a deal, even a mini-deal, though it's difficult to imagine why he would want to do so before the last minute, especially as he assesses Trump's manifold weaknesses over the next month.

Without question, Xi does pay close attention to Trump's political fortunes and especially what the American media is describing as the newly weakened Trump -- even reports of potential primary challenges next year as he seeks reelection, a challenge that Xi will never have to face.

The central danger remains Donald Trump's own personality and his manifest faith in his talents as a dealmaker. The president has always placed a premium on looking tough. So, having just let Nancy Pelosi, by many accounts, even from his own base , walk all over him, how likely will he be to let a Chinese leader have his way with him now?

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"Hopefully, now, the president has learned his lesson," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Friday evening after Congress voted to reopen the government. "We cannot, cannot ever hold American workers hostage again."

But any failure to reach an accord with China and escalating tariffs could hold the entire American economy hostage, causing long-term systemic damage that will be even more difficult to reverse than the results of a month-long shutdown.

Perhaps it's time now for Trump to manage his own expectations and temper his rhetoric, while understanding that the real art of the deal is to make both sides feel like winners.