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Can it really be the case that suggesting a vote to leave the European Union would create uncertainty means you are backing the Remain side?

Some felt that the way chancellor George Osborne quoted the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in his Budget speech made the independent body seem in favour of staying in the EU.

This was the line he quoted: "Whatever the long-term pros or cons of the UK’s membership of the European Union, a vote to leave in the forthcoming referendum could usher in an extended period of uncertainty regarding the precise terms of the UK’s future relationship with the EU."

"This could have negative implications for activity via business and consumer confidence and might result in greater volatility in financial and other asset markets."

Is there going to be uncertainty?

In the murky world of economic forecasting, predicting uncertainty is about as safe as it gets. How can anyone disagree with you?

In its forecasts, the OBR assumed that the UK would be staying in the EU, because that's what Parliament told it to do, and it did not calculate what would happen in other scenarios.

And the passage that the chancellor quoted didn't even say that there would be uncertainty it said there could be, which is hedging your bets to an extraordinary extent.

After that he says it "could have negative implications" and "might" lead to volatility, which is hedging his bets again.

If the OBR were trying to come out in favour of staying in the EU I would expect it to do a better job than this.