The price of Bitcoin hit an eight-year high Monday, surpassing 1,459 USD or 10,060 CNY.

As bitcoin price is rising to levels unseen before, some experts predict that one will be able to buy a house in Beijing with one Bitcoin in 10 years. My colleagues (mostly girls) checked their bank accounts wondering how many Bitcoins they could afford. A girl said:“if I buy 0.01 Bitcoin now, it will be worth a BMW ten years later.” Another girl screamed:

“No bitcoin, no future！Girls, let’s borrow money and invest in Bitcoin.”

See how crazy girls could be?

As a sensible person,(or killjoy as they say) I took a calculator and started to do some serious math problem. Housing price in Beijing goes from 30,000 yuan per square meter to 120,000 yuan/square meter. Suppose you buy a house of 50 square meters at the lowest price, about 30,000 yuan per square meter, that’s 1.5 million yuan. Bitcoin price tops 1.5 million yuan(220,500 USD) in 10 years? I don’t think any usable currency can ever reach that kind of amount. It’s good to have a dream, but what if it never comes true? Just like all investment opportunities, there are contradictions with Bitcoin. The PBOC has been working to regulate Bitcoin exchanges. Li Lihui, former president of the Bank of China believes that Bitcoin is not even a currency. The Hong Kong-based economist Lang Xianping says Bitcoin is just a Ponzi scheme. Its price is strongly influenced by public attention. Put simply, more Bitcoin users, higher Bitcoin price.

Some dot.com entrepreneurs, however, believe that Bitcoin is the money of future. Chang Jia, a sci-fi writer and founder of 8btc, claims that Bitcoin has redefined the concept of money and it will ultimately disrupt the current monetary system. Zhang Jian, Huobi’s former VP of Technology, notes that Bitcoin is the most successful digital currency to date. Venture capitalist Tim Draper sees big future in Bitcoin and once auctioned 30000 Bitcoins.

Maybe you feel we should follow those successful talents and seek opportunities in the world of Bitcoin. But the point is that even if these people failed in Bitcoin, they could always find a way to flex their muscles in other areas. Are you capable to do the same? Can you afford to lose?

Instead of asking should you invest in Bitcoin, why not ask yourself what do you know about Bitcoin? It’s really ironical that many claim they know everything about Bitcoin and if you ask them what is Bitcoin, they would tell you Bitcoin is “a completely anonymous and secure digital currency”. The truth is that Bitcoin is not anonymous, it’s pseudonymous. If you learn Bitcoin, please learn it for good.

When you spend great time and effort studying Bitcoin, there might be three possible outcomes.

One is that you feel Bitcoin can help you get rich and you decide to invest in it. And then there is so much more for you to learn. To name a few, how to buy Bitcoin? how to store it? what’s the difference between a hot wallet and a cold wallet? Most importantly, never forget your wallet password. Never!

Two is that you might begin to think what matters is not the price but the real significance of Bitcoin. You will buy Bitcoin in order to be part of a revolution and help change the world for better. You could even mine Bitcoins yourself to support and help secure the network.

For years, Bitcoin enthusiasts believe that Bitcoin will soon become a mainstream currency. But the hard fact is that Bitcoin is not as widely accepted as you have imagined. Last week, a friend of mine (we haven’t seen each other after graduated in 2016) asked me what I’ve been up to, and I told her something about Bitcoin. She shouted:

“OMG, Cindy, Don’t you know that is illegal!”

That’s embarrassing, but I believe a great deal of people think Bitcoin is illegal.

Another possible result is that you don’t see Bitcoin is a good investment anymore.

First, wild fluctuation. One could buy Bitcoin at the price of 8000 yuan last Monday and find its price drop to 6000 yuan today. Seriously, among all the surprises Bitcoin can provide you, one of which is a heart attack. You may spend sleepless nights fearing a Bitcoin crash.

Second, uncertainty. I guess you would agree that the future of Bitcoin in China is largely determined by the Chinese government instead of adopters. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin and difficulty to regulate make it problematic in the eyes of government entities. Right now, no one is sure what will be the next move of the government as Bitcoin price reaches over 10,000 yuan.

Third, negative media coverage. Bitcoin has many negative connotations, as it is often associated with illicit markets, tax evasion, money laundering and theft. If so, why not stay away from this complicated community?

Anyway, everyone can try to use Bitcoin, but first you should learn enough about it and then you decide whether you should invest in Bitcoin or not. Remember, big fishes eat smaller ones.

May God bless you!