The Indianapolis Colts will go as far this season as quarterback Andrew Luck can carry them, and it’s not yet clear that he’s capable of carrying them anywhere at all. Two weeks ago, Luck made a couple dozen short throws with footballs that weren’t quite official NFL-size and, understandably, the Colts community was pretty pumped…

IT’S HAPPENING OMG OMG pic.twitter.com/VyCR6llLRW — Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) June 12, 2018

Woo. Plan the parade route, Indy.

[Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues are open: Sign up now for free!]

As everyone knows, Luck missed the entire 2017 season following January labrum surgery. Colts news coverage over the past year-and-a-half has been a carnival ride of bogus pronouncements, wishcasting, skepticism, setbacks and wild speculation. It is, without question, a very good sign that Luck is throwing again. A great sign. Excellent news. The expectation is for Luck to develop something close to a regular season throwing routine that he can carry into camp:

“Big picture, my goal was to be able to throw as much as I need to, like on a game week,” Luck said. “A Wednesday, Thursday, Friday at practice and then Sunday, let it loose, no count, nothing. You’ve got to go and let it go. So that’s what I’m preparing for, that’s why right now I throw Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays and Fridays to mimic a three-day sort of practice week and then a Friday as a Sunday as a game week.”

Sounds like a solid plan. It also sounds as if Luck is beginning to feel legitimately closer to the pre-surgery version of himself. When asked if he expects to play the opener this season, he told reporters, “I’ll be playing. I believe it in my bones.”

Fantasy owners obviously can’t treat him as a sure thing, especially at a time when the quarterback position is as deep as it’s ever been. Luck’s FF Calculator average draft position seems aggressive (104.1, QB12) considering the quality and reliability of the players selected in his range. Drafting him at any price means that you will almost certainly need to roster a second playable QB. That’s not the greatest use of limited bench spots. But let’s also remember that Luck, at his absolute best, was a 4700-yard, 40-TD passer. He threw for 4240 yards and 31 scores in a year in which he played with the labrum tear. There’s little question that a healthy Luck would rank as a top-six fantasy quarterback.

If you’re still trying to talk yourself into Luck, please note that new head coach Frank Reich is fresh off a Super Bowl win as OC for the Eagles. Reich was essential in Carson Wentz’s development, plus he’s the guy who prepped Nick Foles to star in the postseason. These are good bullet points for a coaching resume.

View photos Head coach Frank Reich was the most important offseason addition in Indy. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings) More

We don’t have to make any final decisions on Luck’s draft value today, so let’s please keep an open mind. The recent news has been encouraging. At the very least, we shouldn’t run away from him quite the way we did last summer. His line should improve following the draft day addition of mauling guard Quenton Nelson.

The Colts’ offense was a start-to-finish mess without Luck last season, ranking dead-last in yards per play and 30th in passing. If he can’t get back to full health, none of this team’s skill players are particularly interesting for fantasy purposes.

Indy’s receiving corps is T.Y. Hilton and, um … some other dudes

T.Y. Hilton led the NFL in receiving yardage two seasons ago with Luck at the controls of the offense, catching 91 balls for 1448 yards. Last year, with Jacoby Brissett running the show (and rarely looking downfield), Hilton slipped to just 966 yards on 57 receptions. He was painfully boom-or-bust, delivering three games with 150 or more yards and a whopping eight games with 30 or fewer. Hilton is a dynamic player in his prime, 28 years old, and his chemistry with Luck is well established. He’s also a member of the best-shape-of-his-life club, which can’t hurt. If Luck gets right, Hilton will as well. His recent ADP reflects the fantasy community’s optimistic outlook on his quarterback (33.4, WR14). Hilton has never seen more than 16 red-zone targets in any season, so don’t expect a double-digit TD total.