Romesh Tiwari

We are seeing selling pressure because of uncertainty looming over the economic scene of the global and domestic markets.

The future is more opaque than we have witnessed in the past decade. We are facing the economic version of the cold war from the last century with the US and China now confronting on trading issues.

So for the next one year, my hopes are based on the survival spirit of Indians and their adaptability to changes. Next one year can be turbulent for markets but with the government intervention, we may see the revival after a couple of quarters.

For benchmark index Nifty50, I expect a further fall to around 9,700 levels amid the global and domestic economic concerns. It may consolidate between 10,000 to 12,000 for some time, maybe a quarter or so before any decisive move towards new highs.

We may see 13,000 levels on Nifty after consolidation. Although it will all depend on unfolding of unpredictable events key for the deeply interconnected world economies.

My strategy will be to invest in sectors which are getting beaten due to the absence of clarity and short term negative outlook but are crucial for revitalizing of the domestic economy, like auto, infra, banking, FMCG and consumer retail segments.

I will suggest buying on dips in Maruti, HeroMotocorp, Escorts, Ashok Leyland, DLF, L&T, Reliance, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, that may give around 20-25 percent returns on investment in a year’s time.

(The author is Head of Research at CapitalAim.)

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