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Editor’s note: This commentary is by Tim Barden, who is the executive director of South Burlington City Center for the Arts.

It seems that lately, not a day goes by without some pundit weighing in on the range of problems facing Vermont. The most recent, a Washington Post article entitled “The rise and fall of the most European state in the Union” follows a well-worn path. It’s another lamentation that outlines (with barely hidden glee) our seemingly dire situation. For example:

“More people die in Vermont than are born there, a phenomenon with little precedent in the United States. And since at least 2010, Vermont hasn’t attracted enough immigrants from abroad to offset the residents it is losing to other states.”

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There are many great things about Vermont. But apparently, not enough to maintain the balance of people, businesses and resources to fend off dark storm clouds on the horizon. Every day brings another hole in the dike of unfunded liabilities, closing colleges and hospitals, businesses being sold to outside forces, etc. In a word, Vermont is becoming anemic from blood loss due to a thousand cuts. Some big, some small but in the end, enough to send the state into future shock. The warning signs are there.

To be fair, fundamentally, it’s not Vermont’s fault. We are a very tiny boat in a very large ocean. Our population (roughly the same as the total employment of the U.S. Postal Service) condemns us to a small economic footprint. Smaller in fact than any state other than Wyoming. This means that when the winds of socioeconomic change blow we are like a house of sticks facing a hurricane … and those winds they are a blowin’. Globally, society is experiencing accelerating change unimaginable to last century economists. The internet, fueled by exponential growth in the capability of computer hardware, has eroded material barriers to trade and communications (political and geographic borders) leaving only abstract layers one can easily turn on or off using Google Earth. This is the fundamental factor driving the massive rebalancing of global wealth and driving the forces of wealth inequality. The relatively high cost of human labor in countries like the United States cannot compete with the lower cost of human labor in developing nations. Increasingly, as technology drives the marginal cost of production of most goods and services toward zero, human labor everywhere will no longer be able to compete. These are the global waters that Vermont must navigate. Unfortunately, it’s taking a long time for this reality to register with politicians and pundits. With the exception of one lone announced presidential candidate (Andrew Yang), no one is banging the drum. Plug your ears though, it’s going to get loud soon.

Because of these dynamics, the way forward for Vermont is to do something that seems a contradiction. We must get larger and smaller at the same time. Doing so will allow us to truly think globally while acting locally.

Larger … Vermont has no strong regional county government structure. This creates a situation where the ability to cooperate on regional initiatives devolves into power struggles between cities and towns wanting ownership and control. It also means that initiatives that might make sense regionally, have a hard time getting traction. A move toward a stronger county government model would provide a platform for better cooperation, greater economies of scale and efficiencies. Projects at a county level make it easier to engage business, educational, cultural and health care organizations to work toward solutions that make regional sense. In truth, there are already examples of this emerging dynamic in the regional planning commissions throughout the state. To the extent organizations like these can become more of a center of gravity and broaden their span of control Vermonters will benefit. Accomplishing this will take visionary leadership at all levels and vocal citizens supporting them.

Smaller … The initiatives driven at a state and regional level must consider the global issues described earlier. Vermont has to take a sober look at what it can and cannot effectively do well given its small size and act accordingly. We have an opportunity to provide a leadership role in target areas that would result in economic growth with low-density impact. For example, what if Vermont worked to become the most cost-effective place to become a trained electrician, plumber or welder and at the same time a research zone for emerging construction technologies like virtual and augmented reality design. Doing so requires a consortium of education, industry and government players but it could be a solid engine for future growth. Another example, today, South Burlington City Center for the Arts is working to seize opportunities enabled by advances in technology. Opportunities that would allow us to build a world-class facility in South Burlington that creates, performs and distributes entertainment through existing and emerging pipelines like Netflix, Amazon, Cennarium, Digital Theatre and more. The resulting income from worldwide consumption will flow back into Vermont enhancing our ability to create, educate, entertain and employ. It will also enhance Vermont’s profile as a center of innovation, creativity and technology. This is truly a facility with regional impact and the potential for a large return on investment to Vermonters.

We have to stop trying to use 20th-century solutions for 21st-century problems.

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