Customs and Border Protection Activity 2017 fiscal year 526,901 people who immigrated illegally or were denied entry 310,531 apprehended 228 MS-13 arrests 31,039 arrested Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection Customs and Border Protection Activity 2017 fiscal year 526,901 people who immigrated illegally or were denied entry 310,531 apprehended 31,039 arrested 228 MS-13 arrests Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection Customs and Border Protection Activity 2017 fiscal year 526,901 people who immigrated illegally or were denied entry 310,531 apprehended 228 MS-13 arrests 31,039 arrested Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection

In a tweet on Tuesday morning, President Trump again invoked MS-13, the vicious transnational criminal group with ties to El Salvador, to justify his immigration stance. He described an “infestation” of the gang, another attack in a long-standing pattern of labeling MS-13 members “animals” and recounting their killings in graphic detail.

In reality, MS-13 members make up a fraction of Border Patrol arrests and a small part of gang activity in the United States. While the group has committed brutal murders on Long Island, there is no evidence that the gang is increasingly sending members into the country.

However, MS-13 is tied closely to Central America, making it a convenient target of Mr. Trump’s hard-line immigration agenda, which favors stricter enforcement along the Southwest border and more deportations. Rather than a nationwide threat, the group is being used as a political tool used to “turbocharge the xenophobia that underlies the debate around immigration,” said Jorja Leap, an anthropologist at U.C.L.A. who studies gangs.

MS-13 is not particularly large, nor is it growing

MS-13 members, some 10,000 in number, make up less than 1 percent of the approximately 1.4 million gang members in the United States, according to F.B.I. estimates. Other gangs are several times larger.

Estimated number of gang members in the United States 18th Street 50,000 The Crips 50,000 Gangster Disciples 50,000 Latin Kings 35,000 Higher estimate The Bloods 20,000 Lower estimate MS-13 10,000 Estimated number of gang members in the U.S. 18th Street 50,000 The Crips 50,000 Gangster Disciples 50,000 Latin Kings 35,000 The Bloods 20,000 Lower estimate Higher estimate MS-13 10,000 Source: Department of Justice

MS-13’s numbers are stagnant, too. While precise size estimates are hard to come by, authorities have used the same figure of about 10,000 members for over a decade. (The F.B.I. estimates the gang has between 30,000 and 50,000 members around the world.)

Far from menacing cities across the country, as Mr. Trump has suggested, the gang’s presence is concentrated in Long Island, Los Angeles and the region outside Washington.

In addition, most MS-13 recruits are not migrants but teenagers who live in the United States and are alienated from their communities, said José Miguel Cruz, the research director at Florida International University’s Latin American and Caribbean Center. In those areas, the gang may be the only group that provides a sense of identity, he added.

Few immigrants commit violent crimes

Mr. Trump’s statements conflating immigrants with barbaric “thugs” are misleading. Among undocumented immigrants convicted of crimes who were apprehended by Border Patrol, relatively few were convicted of violent crimes such as assault and homicide. Research shows that more immigration either reduces crime, on average, or has no effect on crime rates.

Convictions of illegal immigrants apprehended by Border Patrol by type of offense Oct. 2015 to May 2018 4,898 Driving under the influence 1,676 Burglary, robbery, larceny, theft, fraud 13 Homicide, manslaughter 14,374 Illegal entry, re-entry 2,106 Assault, battery, domestic violence 347 Sexual offenses 488 Illegal weapons offenses 3,687 Illegal drug possession, trafficking Note: Does not include 5,427 convictions classified “Other.” Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection Convictions of illegal immigrants apprehended by Border Patrol by type of offense Oct. 2015 to May 2018 14,374 Illegal entry, reentry 3,687 Illegal drug possession, trafficking 4,898 Driving under the influence 2,106 Assault, battery, domestic violence 1,676 Burglary, robbery, larceny, theft, fraud 488 Illegal weapons offenses 347 Sexual offenses 13 Homicide, manslaughter Note: Does not include 5,427 convictions classified “Other.” Source: Customs and Border Protection

Deportations worsened gang problems in the U.S.

Policymakers in Central America have argued deporting criminals from the United States has exacerbated gang problems abroad, ultimately worsening crime in the United States.

While MS-13 began in the 1980s as a small and unorganized street gang in Los Angeles, some evidence suggests the group expanded in Central America after the United States began deporting illegal immigrants — many with criminal backgrounds — with greater intensity in 1996. Experts have described this process as “exporting” American-style gang culture to Central America.

400k 300k Deportations from the United States 200k 1996 Congress passes new immigration act, increasing deportations 100k 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Deportations from the United States 400k 300k 200k 1996 Congress passes new immigration act, increasing deportations 100k 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: Department of Homeland Security

Poor prison conditions in those countries may have also helped MS-13 become larger and better organized, according to a report by the Congressional Research Service. By 2008, law enforcement found evidence that MS-13 leaders in El Salvadoran prisons were ordering assassinations in Washington while making plans to unify gang groups in the United States.

“MS-13 was a gang fueled by deportation, not immigration,” Dr. Leap said.

Trump uses MS-13 as a political tool

At a rally last month in Nashville, Mr. Trump once again linked MS-13 to his political opponents. He has said on Twitter that Democrats are “weak on crime” along the border and are “protecting MS-13 thugs.”

Democrats are the problem. They don't care about crime and want illegal immigrants no matter how bad they may be to pour into and infest our Country like MS-13 . They can't win on their terrible policies so they view them as potential voters!



@realDonaldTrump A Democratic lawmaker just introduced a bill to Repeal the GOP Tax Cuts (no chance). This is too good to be true for Republicans...Remember the Nancy Pelosi Dems are also weak on Crime the Border and want to be gentle and kind to MS-13 gang members...not good!



@realDonaldTrump Put pressure on the Democrats to end the horrible law that separates children from there parents once they cross the Border into the U.S. Catch and Release Lottery and Chain must also go with it and we MUST continue building the WALL! DEMOCRATS ARE PROTECTING MS-13 THUGS.



@realDonaldTrump

Other Republicans have followed his lead. Last week, the former governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, tweeted an incendiary picture of MS-13 members, likening them to the campaign staff for Representative Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader.

Nancy Pelosi introduces her campaign committee for the take back of the House. @GovMikeHuckabee

MS-13 has entered the national conversation because of Mr. Trump’s anti-immigration agenda, not because it has become more threatening, Dr. Cruz said. Because of the gang’s association with Central American countries that Mr. Trump dislikes, “it’s the perfect group for him to blame,” he added.