Fears of a trade war with China may be spooking investors, but analyst Alan Tonelson told CNBC on Thursday he doesn't see that happening.

Earlier in the day, President Donald Trump signed an executive memo that slaps retaliatory tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports.

The Chinese embassy released a statement late Thursday saying China "would fight to the end ... with all necessary measures."

Tonelson, the founder of the public policy blog RealityChek, called that statement as vague as it is pointed.

"We've seen so far no indication of any really serious Chinese intent to retaliate in any significant way," he said on "Closing Bell."

"I have to assume Beijing understands very well how heavily dependent it is for adequate growth and for adequate job creation on retaining some access to the U.S. market, which means it really doesn't want to start a trade war with its very best customer," he added.