***Editor’s note: Francesco Badocchi has left the team.

Outlook: Following a historic defeat to 16-seed UMBC in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, head coach Tony Bennett presumably sought out Satan and made a deal with the devil in exchange for a 2019 National Championship. To win a title, a team needs to be very good and have a considerable amount of luck, which is exactly what Virginia, the definition of “Team of Destiny”, was and had last season. UVA’s run to the title was, objectively, nothing short of a mathematical phenomenon. Per KenPom, in the Elite Eight, the Hoos had a 9% chance to beat Purdue when they trailed by three with 16 seconds remaining. In the Final Four, UVA had a 4% chance to beat Auburn when it trailed by four with 17 seconds remaining (and it took a missed double-dribble, a foul on a three-point shooter, and Kyle “Ice Water” Guy to make that win happen). And, against Texas Tech, Virginia had an 11.7% chance to win when it trailed by three with 22 seconds remaining. By my primitive calculations, the chances of Virginia winning all three of those games in the manner it did was just .04%. WOW.

I’m not chalking up UVA’s championship all to chance. Tony Bennett has built a powerhouse in Charlottesville and deserved every bit of that National Championship. If nothing else, UVA’s win silenced the (incorrect) critics that screamed how UVA’s style of play could never win a title. This year, it may surprise people to find the Hoos this high in our rankings, but much of this preseason ranking is a testament to the program. Virginia has long been a team that is greater than the sum of its individual players, and that should be the case in 2019-20. Three All-Conference players depart from last year, but Bennett has plenty of incoming talent and veterans looking to assume larger roles.

The departures of Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and De’Andre Hunter are most concerning from an offensive perspective. Below shows the offensive impact of each player when they were on the floor versus when they sat. The numbers are eye-popping: