Russia’s New Low Carbon Plan–Increase Emissions by 30%!

By Paul Homewood

Five years ago, we began to see the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, or INDCs, which detailed each country’s plan for reducing (or otherwise!) their greenhouse emissions.

These plans covered the period up to 2030, and were part and parcel of the Paris Agreement.

Coronavirus permitting, nations are supposed to be updating these plans this year, ready for COP26 in Glasgow this November.

As my analysis showed in 2015, most INDCs actually planned for increases in GHGs and not reductions.

I doubt whether we will see much change this time, certainly not if Russia’s provisional plan is anything to go by:

Fossil fuel-rich Russia has for the first time set out a greener economic path for the coming three decades, in a long-term, low-carbon development plan released this week.

It pledges to cut planet-warming emissions by a third by 2030 from 1990 levels, when the heavily industrial Soviet Union collapsed, although that represents an increase in Russia’s greenhouse gas pollution from today.

Climate experts said the strategy and 2030 target were not ambitious enough but did signal growing political and business interest in tackling climate change in an economy that is one of the world’s biggest suppliers of oil, gas and coal.

Under the plan, Russia would not become carbon-neutral until late this century — and only if it implements the cleanest growth scenario outlined.

Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development published the draft strategy Monday, which will now be reviewed by other ministries and business associations before being submitted for government approval by executive order.

The document, almost 70 pages long, outlines four main scenarios for Russia’s low-carbon development through to midcentury.

“This strategy draft is the first comprehensive attempt of the federal government to look into Russia’s economic development trajectory toward 2050 climate goals,” said Mikhail Rasstrigin, Russia’s deputy minister of economic development.

“Importantly, it sets specific goals for the key areas where the bulk of energy efficiency effects could be reaped,” he added. According to the plan, those areas are industry, buildings, energy generation and transport.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to develop long-term, low-emission development strategies. So far, a U.N. database lists 15 such documents, including from the European Union, the United States, Germany and Japan.

Russia, the world’s fifth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, after China, the United States, the EU and India, did not officially join the Paris Agreement until September 2019.

In Russia’s new strategy, the “basic” scenario — which it deems to be the most feasible — shows emissions growing from now until 2030, climbing about 30 percent from 2017.

The 2030 projection still represents a 33 percent cut on 1990 levels. Emissions today, including forest carbon stocks, are already about 50 percent lower than at the end of the Soviet Union, which saw a shift away from a heavy industrial economy.

The new 2030 emissions reduction target will be announced as part of the country’s updated climate action plan due to be submitted to the United Nations later this year, and represents an increase in ambition from its previous goal of a 25 to 30 percent cut.

Russia’s emissions will be curbed over the next decade through measures including energy efficiency, the introduction of a carbon price, development of renewables and nuclear energy, less clear-cutting of forests and enlarging protected areas.

But that will be offset by higher economic growth and a significant decline in the ability of forests to absorb and store carbon due to wildfires, illegal logging and their rising age, the plan shows.

But, the strategy adds, the carbon intensity of the Russian economy — how much carbon it emits per unit of gross domestic product — is expected to drop by 9 percent in 10 years and by almost half by 2050 from the 2017 level.

The basic scenario does not foresee carbon neutrality by 2050, although emissions are forecast to start declining after 2030 to reach 36 percent below 1990 levels by midcentury.

If the government opts for an “intensive” approach, however, emissions could be cut by 48 percent by 2050, with Russia becoming carbon-neutral late this century, the plan noted.

Greenpeace Russia said the strategy was welcome but “modest,” adding the measures were not enough for Russia to make an “adequate contribution” toward a global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.

scale and speed of Russia’s transformation toward a green future,” he added

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/27/business/russia-low-carbon-future/

So the plan is:

1) Increase emissions by 30% between now and 2030.

2) Reduce emissions by 5% between 2030 and 2050.

That should save the planet!!

Russia’s emissions of CO2 are about five times that of the UK’s.