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I don’t think rejection is likely. Ottawa is digging its own channel to the pipeline with approval of B.C.’s liquid natural gas project, and with the carbon price as well.

But so far, nobody is talking about what could happen after Ottawa approves. That could turn out to be demoralizing and divisive.

What if Kinder Morgan sinks into more months and even years of delay because of continued coastal opposition, much like Northern Gateway after the National Energy Board gave it the green light?

What if the B.C. government still says no, on grounds that its five conditions haven’t been met?

Here’s the landscape of this complex dispute, outlined by B.C. officials who are not at all motivated by ill will toward Alberta. They’re just describing their own mess.

First, B.C. has to do its own environmental assessment of Kinder Morgan, after the courts ordered one.

This is apparently moving along quite well. B.C. has a much quicker process than federal authorities (who doesn’t?). There’s even a slight chance it could be done by the time the federal ruling comes down.

After that, the environment minister has 45 days to respond. But B.C. cannot use its own conclusions to reject the pipeline. To contradict the federal decision would defy Ottawa’s constitutional authority over interprovincial trade.

All that sounds quite hopeful, but there’s more. Ominously, it’s political, not legal.

B.C. still expects five conditions to be met before it withdraws its formal rejection to Kinder Morgan.