NFL Draft Research Leads To Fantasy Football Gold

Every year, with a new NFL Draft in the books, there will be a new crop of rookies added to the fantasy football player pool. A new chance to build your team right. I feel that MockOut is the continuation of fantasy into the offseason, so we don’t just forget all that information we learned about the prospects once the draft has wrapped—we use it to inform our strategy and opinions on the next fantasy season. And when that fantasy season is wrapped, we use what we learned to inform our predictions on MockOut.

It’s the circle of life.

Today is a big day for me. I get to apply everything I learned from the NFL Draft and apply it to my own fantasy teams.

Let’s see if I can do better this year than I did in 2016.

Top Fantasy Rookies Will Always Be RBs

10) Zay Jones, WR BUF

The biggest thing to take into consideration for rookie fantasy contributors, far more than talent, is an early, predictable role on offense. And while I am not high at all on Zay Jones, I couldn’t be higher on any other rookie WRs role on offense. With the departure of Sammy Watkins (and Jordan Matthews’ injury) Zay is the default #1 WR. Because the Bills offense will live and die by the running game, even in his juicy role I don’t expect huge numbers. But he should get good enough volume, particularly in the red zone, to warrant inclusion on this list.

9) Chris Godwin, WR TB

Godwin is basically the anti-Zay. Godwin is dripping with talent, and is reportedly tearing it up at Bucs camp. The problem is, what is his route to playing time? Evans and Desean are locked in as the top two WRs there for this season. With O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, I expect the Bucs to run a lot of 2-TE sets. And the defense should be good enough to keep them in most games, allowing them to utilize the run. So why is Godwin ahead of Zay? I believe he is just too good to sit. He will either supplant Desean on the outside or force the Bucs to run more 3 wide sets to get him on the field. While his fantasy season should start slow (allowing managers to grab him on the waiver wire) he should pick up steam in the second half and finish as a WR2.

8) Samaje Perine, RB WAS

Apparently struggling in pass protection and holding on to the ball during camps (and also in the first preseason game) it appears as though Samaje will be relegated to a backup role to start the season. But he is too talented, and Rob Kelley is too average for that pecking order to remain for very long. Even in a 2-down role, Perine could be a monster behind a quietly talented run blocking O-line, and could benefit from a lot of red zone touches. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him start the season in a similar role to Derrick Henry from last year, and end the season as more of a… well… Rob Kelley-level contributor.

7) Kenny Golladay, WR DET

I know—the Golladay Hype Train has already opened its doors and begun seating passengers. JJ Zachariason was the first pundit I listened to who sang his praises, and it seems his camp and week 1 performance have only justified his love. That said… I’m a Hawks fan. I’m used to seeing big WRs do well in the preseason (or the Super Bowl) never to be heard from again. For a team with this many passing game weapons ahead of him (I count Tate, Jones, Ebron, Riddick, and Abdullah for sure) his path to playing time is going to be difficult, and his fantasy points will be very TD dependent. TD dependent rookie WRs are not the kind of players that win you fantasy championships. That said…the Lions do like to run a lot of 3-wide sets. And if he does leapfrog Jones on the depth chart, then watch out. He could be far and away the top rookie WR from this class. As it is, I am going to give that honor to…

6) Trent Taylor, WR SF

Who??? I think of all the players on this list, Taylor is the one I am most excited to see how he is deployed. He’s such a little guy, but he’s so exciting. So sudden and explosive. He actually reminds me of another WR who’s even smaller than he is—Taylor Gabriel. Wait a second… who was Gabriel’s OC last year? Oh yeah! Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan, the new head coach of the 49ers. A team that will have to throw a LOT, and who really has no WR behind Garcon on the depth chart, and no established receiving option at RB or TE either. I think Taylor will start this year, will be Shanahan’s Gabriel once more, and can even be the beneficiary of gadget plays out of the backfield and in space. Another player who will cost no draft capital, I expect Taylor to come out of the gates with a bang. I would not be at all surprised if he ends up with 75+ receptions in his rookie year.

5) Leonard Fournette, RB JAX

This ranking will probably come under fire, seeing as Fournette is the consensus #1 rookie RB this season (or as close to it as any season has) but I am seeing some warning signs about him. First off, let me say that I love his skills, and I think he could be a bigger part of the passing game than many are expecting. That said, he is still a pretty limited player. In a limited offense. He is a straight-line back who should only excel in power running concepts, and while I don’t expect him to lose ALL third down work… he’ll lose a fair share. The Jaguars are not good enough through the air to force teams to respect the pass, which is why when the Jags were on the goal line in week 1, they had to feed Fournette 3 times before he scored. I know, it’s just one game, and the defense knew it was coming.True. But that will be the case all season. Teams will focus on stopping him, and that O-line (and his wiggle) are not good enough to allow him to realize his potential this season.Add in a foot injury, and I think he will disappoint owners early in his career.

4) Evan Engram, TE/WR NYG

I believe Evan Engram is going to surprise a lot of people this year, and can become one of the top receivers in the league. Sure, he played TE in college, but with his off the charts athleticism and fluidity, he will not be doing much if any blocking. Here’s a handy chart to show how he matches up with the league’s best big receivers (hat tip to reddit user OBJesus) so right off the bat, one just has to admire and fear his athleticism. But he’s not just on athlete. The one word that keeps getting thrown around at Giants camp is smooth. If there’s a rookie, drafted by a team with basically no running game, who is a combination of Julio’s physicality and ODB’s grace, I’m on board.

3) Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR

I have to admit it, I’ve never seen a prospect like McCaffrey before. Check out every touch from week 1. His vision and burst are just… perfection. And he hasn’t even been let loose on the passing game yet, where he should have his biggest impact as a player (my original player comp for him was Julian Edelman, but now I see that he can be so much more.) That said, he will definitely lose some early down work to Jonathan Stewart, will definitely lose goal line work to Stewart and Cam Newton, and plays for a QB who has historically had very little success throwing to RBs. He’s a downfield passer. And I think that can suit McCaffrey just fine. I expect him to deliver at or near his ceiling this season, and to only grow more dynamic in year two.

2) Dalvin Cook, RB MIN

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity. Cook is a RB who was truly amazing at college, and simply because he had one bad day of athletic testing (and perhaps because of his character) he fell on draft day. And yes, I am worried about his testing, but I believe when there is a huge discrepancy between the testing and the tape (as there is in his case) I trust the tape. I am one of the biggest Anti-Latavius boosters out there, and believe Cook will be a 3-down back on day 1. Reports out of camp are that he is dominating. The Vikings defense is elite, which should allow for a lot of close games where the running game remains relevant. Cook is going to be a combination of Fournette’s workload and McCaffrey’s skillset—the best of both worlds, and a strong ROY candidate.

1) Joe Mixon, RB CIN

But I am going to give the top fantasy rookie spot to Mean Joe Mixon. On second thought, maybe he doesn’t want that nickname to stick. Regardless, I have made it very well known that I had Mixon rated as my top RB in last year’s draft. While my RB Rankings originally comp’ed him to Edgerrin James, I think an even better comp might be Clinton Portis. He is just a great big powerful RB, with the electric moves and foot speed of a man half his size. Do I worry about his competition for touches? Well, sure. More than Dalvin Cook, anyway. I think Hill might steal a few touches away, and Bernard might grab some passes once he’s back and healthy. But I think those will be limited, and could also help keep him fresh later in the season. My bigger concern is the sad state of the Bengals O-line, but some players can transcend a bad line. Lynch did for years in Seattle. Peterson did even when Minnesota had a subpar line. I expect Mixon to do the same. To earn the starting role no later than week 2, to dominate touches, to transcend the blocking, and to be the most valuable fantasy rookie in 2017.