It’s the most wonderful time of the year! It’s the end of silly season, and the beginning of preseason exhibitions. Professional soccer will finally, at long last, return to Music City. This Saturday, 2/10/2018, Nashville SC will take on Atlanta United FC in Nashville’s first ever match. But, let’s keep in mind, this is just a friendly match between one team that is brand new and has never played a minute of football yet, and Atlanta United, who will be MLS Cup challengers this season.

Let’s start this tactical preview by looking at the enemy.

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. ~Sun Tzu, The Art of Soccer War

I will assume here that Gerardo “Tata” Martino will field a similar-looking formation to the majority of his matches last season, which was a 4-2-3-1, with both outside backs pushing forward during attack, often overlapping with the wingers, and with one of the defensive mids slotting back in between the two center backs. Atlanta’s formation will look something like this*, with the caveat that Barco and Almiron could switch positions, depending on how Tata wants to line up his attacking midfielders.

*I’m probably wrong

This formation allowed this team the creative flexibility to score 70 goals last season, but also allowed 40 goals to be scored against them. Atlanta is a team that likes to press high, and punish opponents on quick counter-attacks, but they are devastating in general when attacking. Atlanta can bring seven players forward in attack, and had the ability to pick apart a defensive line with clever passing and good positioning, but they did have some trouble when opponents deliberately “parked the bus” in the defending third. That, combined with being slightly stretched thin on defense while attacking, led some teams to be able to score against Atlanta quickly on counters after winning the ball in their own third. Bearing all this in mind, what can we expect to see from Nashville against this potent team?

Coach Smith seems likely to field a five-man backline to have a really solid defensive front. In front of these five will be a two-man holding midfield team, followed by a single attacking midfielder, and two forwards. The formation should look like the below, when defensively-focused on the left, and offensively-focused on the right*

*Seriously, I’m probably wrong

Smith is looking to field three center backs, with an eye to having the outside backs function as wing backs, and “get pressure on the ball so we don’t just become a group that are gonna sit there. I want to be aggressive, but we’ve got to try and find a good foundational level to work from” said Gary Smith during the media day practice last week. During that media time, the team primarily focused on defensive drills. Taylor Washington and Kosuke Kimura played mostly at left and right back, respectively, with Justin Davis, Liam Doyle, and London Woodberry getting the most practice time as the three aforementioned center backs. Ryan James got some time playing at both outside back positions, and Jordan Dunstan and Bradley Bourgeois got some time at center back.

Let’s move forward to talk about the midfield. Coach Gary Smith will likely field two holding midfielders, whose job it will be to link up passes between the defense and offense, and help out with both. Michael Reed and Matt LaGrassa will probably get the nod here, with Bolu Akinyode and Josh Hughes appearing to be the “second-choice” pairing in midfield. Next will most likely be this team’s #10, the playmaker, Lebo Moloto. In front of him, the waters get a little murky. Who will be the attacking pair? I know I’m making a mountain of a molehill, but what I got going for me is the practice open to the media last week. Robin Shroot and Martim Galvão were paired together, and Tucker Hume and Michael Cox were paired together in that practice. Ropapa Mensah had not yet arrived in the States, held up by visa complications, so his place is still up in the air. In terms of goalkeeper, Coach Smith said: “I’ve worked with both of the first-choice goalkeepers, and I class them both as first-choice goalkeepers…I have no issue whatsoever playing either one of those guys in between those sticks on any given Saturday, and it’ll be down to who’s performing at their best.”

So, what will Nashville’s first ever formation look like come Saturday, and who will start? It will look like this*

*I’m actually pretty confident on this one. Wait, no, the opposite of that

I’ve got Matt Pickens starting in goal; I’m counting on his MLS experience to help organize that backline against the onslaught that can be Atlanta United. I’m predicting the backline to consist of, in order from left to right: Taylor Washington, Justin Davis, Liam Doyle, London Woodberry, and Kosuke Kimura. I think Michael Reed and Matt LaGrassa get the start in central midfield, but I expect at least one sub in this area as the game goes on as either a tactical change or to help another player get some playing time. In front of them Lebo Moloto will start as the #10, and I think Robin Shroot and Tucker Hume will start as the attacking duo, assuming Ropapa Mensah does not arrive and get acclimated in time. If he does, I expect Mensah to start over Hume, but I also expect a substitute here during the game to give another guy some playing time. Only time will tell if I’m right. Come on Saturday!

Author’s note: I sourced a lot of the practice-related material from Nashville Golden Goal and from For Club and Country. They’re good blogs; go check them out.