Post-Brexit trade talks: Hard Brexit could push up the family food bill by £50 a week The increases would come from hefty tariffs on imports and the cost of increased border checks on food coming into the country

A hard Brexit could cost a family of four more than £50 a week more in food bills, with meat, dairy and jam seeing the biggest price rises, a study finds.

Researchers look at the effect of leaving the EU with no trade deal and calculated it would push the weekly food shop up by between £20.98 and £50.98.

The increases would come from hefty tariffs on imports, the cost of increased border checks on food coming into the country.

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A hard Brexit is also expected to push down the value of the pound, making imports more expensive.

Soft Brexit would cushion the blow

By contrast, a soft Brexit with a comprehensive trade deal would push the food bill up by a much smaller amount – of between £5.80 and £18.17 a week, according to a study by the University of Warwick, published in the journal BMJ Open.

While a hard Brexit would put considerable extra financial pressure on most British households the impact on poorer households would be far worse.

“Food security in the UK is a topical issue. Over the last five year food bank use has increased by 73 per cent, and this could increase for families who are unable to absorb these increased costs. There could also be reductions in diet quality leading to long term health problems,” said Martine Barons, of the University of Warwick.

The research suggested that the price of tea, coffee and cocoa which are typically sourced outside Europe will be least affected by Brexit.

The Government has played down the potential effect of a hard Brexit on food prices. However, in October, Michael Gove admitted that at least some prices could go up.

“Some prices may go up. Other prices will come down,” he told BBC’s Andrew Marr show.

How the study was done

A panel of industry experts estimated the effects of Brexit on different food types and what this would mean for families in the best and worst case scenarios.

Researchers at the University of Warwick then used each expert’s estimates, and combined them mathematically to give an estimate for the panel as a whole, their findings have been published in a new paper.