It was February 22, 2011 - the first day of the budget session when UPA was in power. The then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced setting up of a joint parliamentary committee (JPC) into the alleged multi-crore 2G spectrum allocation scam. For the next three years till the 2014 Lok Sabha election, 2G had become one of the most important issues for the BJP to corner the ruling Congress-led UPA government.

In a reversal of roles now, the Congress is demanding a JPC probe into the Rafale deal. Congress president Rahul Gandhi has upped the ante over the issue. The ruling BJP has so far shown no inkling of giving in to Rahul Gandhis demand.

Why is Rahul Gandhi demanding a JPC probe into the Rafale deal? What gains will the probe accrue to him and the Congress party?

If one looks at the history of all JPCs, one finds that they serve as an important political tool for the opposition party. So far, JPCs have been constituted on six occasions - Bofors scam (1987), Harshad Mehta stock market scam (1992), Ketan Parekh share market scam (2001), soft drink pesticide issue (2003), 2G spectrum allocation scam (2011) and VVIP chopper scam (2013).

While JPC was first constituted in the Bofors scandal when Rajiv Gandhi was the prime minister, the last two JPCs, including the one on 2G spectrum allocation, were formed during Manmohan Singhs second tenure as PM. Coincidentally, every time that the JPC has been constituted, the government of the day has lost in the next Lok Sabha election.

From the Oppositions point of view, these are some of the five advantages of a JPC:

Building up heat

Any JPC inquiry helps the Opposition in building up the heat on the ruling party of the day. The 2G did exactly that for the then main opposition party, the BJP. The Congress and its UPA partners were put on the defensive.

The BJP kept demanding a JPC probe into 2G spectrum scam. When it was finally constituted, it remained in the news because if its meetings. Documents and heated arguments during its meetings would also be leaked thus keeping the pot boiling all the time. The Congress, therefore, wants the BJP to face the heat through a JPC on the Rafale deal.

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Official sanction

A JPC probe provides an official sanction to an alleged scam. The BJP was luckier than the Congress. The 2G spectrum scam found mention in Comptroller and Auditor Generals report which pegged the loss at Rs 1.76 lakh crore to the exchequer. The scam was probed by the CBI under the watch of the Supreme Court. The Rafale deal has not been taken up by any of these bodies. In the absence of such factor, Rahul Gandhi and the Congress may want a JPC inquiry for the Rafale deal to get some kind of an official sanction.

Make scam stick to BJP

Whatever may have been the truth in the Bofors, 2G spectrum or the VVIP chopper scams, they have got associated with the Congress governments of the day. The JPC probe had a big role to play in all of these.

The Opposition parties, VP Singhs Janata Dal and the BJP respectively, were successful in creating a perception among the people of wrongdoings by the government. The JPC probe came in handy for the Opposition.

If the Congress succeeds in getting a JPC inquiry ordered, it would go to town with the deliberations of the JPC meetings and finally its report and all the controversies surrounding it.

Disrupting Parliament

Rahul Gandhis demand for a JPC probe into the Rafale deal may be a precursor to the worse things to come. It may be an alibi to disrupt the winter session of Parliament. The whole winter session of Parliament in 2010 had got washed out with the BJP demanding a JPC probe into the 2G scam. Though the BJP created the ruckus, the ruling Congress felt the heat.

To escape any further embarrassment, the then PM Manmohan Singh announced the formation of JPC on 2G spectrum scam on the very first day of the 2011 budget session. The JPC meetings went on till more than two years and finally, its report was submitted by its chairman PC Chacko to the then Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar on October 29, 2013.

Parliament was disrupted even on the adoption of the report. One may expect the same if a JPC probe is ordered into the Rafale deal.

Electoral dividend

Finally, the main motive. The BJP was successful in creating a perception about the Congress government being corrupt. The JPC probe into the 2G spectrum scam played a key role. It provided a legitimacy for the BJP which went to the 2014 Lok Sabha election painting the Congress-led UPA government as corrupt. It paid rich dividends and the Congress fared the worst in history winning just 44 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats.

With no other scam having stuck to the Narendra Modi government so far, the Congress smells a chance in the Rafale deal. Rahul Gandhi has been trying to rake it up on all forums.

Now, his emphasis is on ensuring that a JPC is ordered into it so that he harvests its yield in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Presently, the BJP seems to have smelt the Congress gameplan. Hence, both Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and BJP president Amit Shah had outrightly rejected any JPC probe. The tug of war over JPC on Rafale deal would be interesting in the days to come.

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