The lone Liberal member of the legislature from Saint John says his city stands to benefit from measures in the Higgs government's new budget — but he's still not sure how he's going to vote on it.

Gerry Lowe told reporters that increases in social assistance rates, a planned reduction in the so-called "double taxation" on apartment buildings and a review of industrial property assessments are all positive for his riding and for Saint John.

"So there's some good points and some bad points. So I'm going home this weekend to talk to the people I represent, and they'll make up my mind for me," he said.

The first-term Saint John Harbour Liberal MLA's vote could be pivotal to whether the Progressive Conservative government can pass its budget next Friday. A defeat would trigger a provincial election.

The Liberal MLA from Saint John thinks his city can benefit from the PC budget but still isn't sure how he will vote. 2:07

Lowe shrugged off a threat from Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers that he'll be punished if he breaks the party line to vote with the PCs.

"Life goes on," he said. "He's the leader and if I go against the party, I'm sure there's consequences. … That's the man's job."

Premier Blaine Higgs responded by daring Vickers to let all Liberal MLAs vote freely on the budget.

Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers has said his party will vote against the budget. The question now is whether Lowe will join the rest of his colleagues. (CP/Andrew Vaughan)

"I would guess [Lowe's] colleagues feel the same way, that there's a lot of good things in the budget," Higgs said.

"Maybe [Vickers] will do something really unique and say 'I've got people that really think it's not that bad, and we'll do a free vote.'"

The numbers game

The PCs have 20 seats in the legislature following the resignation of Deputy Premier Robert Gauvin to sit as an independent.

The Liberals have 19, though if they ask MLA Daniel Guitart to resign as speaker and rejoin their ranks, they'll gain one vote. If a PC member becomes speaker, they'll be down one.

Green Party Leader David Coon will wait until his budget response speech on Friday to announce how he will vote. (Philip Drost/CBC)

Gauvin has promised to vote against the budget and three People's Alliance MLAs say they'll support it, meaning Lowe and the three Green MLAs hold the balance of power.

Green Leader David Coon said Wednesday he will reveal his decision Friday, when he delivers his official response to the budget in a speech in the legislature.

Resources for riding

Lowe said on top of the budget measures he likes, there is $3 million left over in the province's capital budget that could go toward a badly-needed new school in his riding.

The aging St. John the Baptist-King Edward School, a kindergarten-to-Grade 8 school in the city's south end, has been one of Lowe's top causes for years.

"It just grows on you," he said, adding a modern school "will change everything in the south end. Everything. And that's important to me."

The CBC's Jacques Poitras breaks down the possible scenarios that might trigger an election after the provincial budget Tuesday. 2:22

Last year Lowe introduced a non-binding motion calling on the government to examine ending a property tax exemption for heavy equipment at industrial facilities, which would give Saint John a potential revenue windfall.

The legislature held two days of hearings on it, but Finance Minister Ernie Steeves called it "a business crusher" and Saint John East PC MLA Glen Savoie said it was "regressive."

But this week Steeves said in his budget speech that the province was reviewing the issue.

Lowe has mused about leaving provincial politics and returning to Saint John city council. (Brian Chisholm, CBC)

Lowe also mused recently about leaving provincial politics to return to Saint John city council.

He said he'll take part in the budget vote expected Friday, March 20, "and then I'll decide my fate, one way or the other."

He also said the decision by Saint John Mayor Don Darling not to reoffer for a second term in municipal elections May 11 will be a consideration.

"Would I want to sit there with someone I don't respect as mayor? I don't think I would."

He ruled out running for mayor himself.

COVID concerns

Meanwhile, Higgs said the Liberals should think carefully about triggering an election given the likelihood of COVID-19 cases appearing in the province in the coming weeks or months.

"It's not if we're going to have a case, it's when," he said, citing public health officials. "And it's not how many are we going to have. It's going to be how we can control it."

Liberal MLA Roger Melanson called that "a separate issue" from what he called the loss of confidence in the PC government after its announcement, and cancellation, of health care reforms last month.

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs has warned other parties against triggering an election given the likelihood of COVID-19 cases appearing in the province in the coming weeks or months. (CBC)

But Melanson suggested the Liberals would pay attention to what public health officials have to say about an election.

"We leave it up to the experts. We need to hear from them. If it's a concern where elections should not occur, meaning also municipal elections and two by-elections, we will listen to that.

"But we believe New Brunswickers have lost confidence in this government, and we're going to respect that and express that on the floor of the legislature."