Kevin Lee (-140) Charles Oliveira (+120)

Kevin Lee (5'9", 76", 27 years old, Tristar)

I really want to like Kevin Lee. He hit a rough patch in his career losing 3 of 4. He went to Tristar to work with Firas Zahabi, took a fight with a guy nobody wanted to fight in Gregor Gillespie, a matchup everyone said was terrible for him, and KO’d him in Round 1. Charles Oliveira is another guy nobody wants to fight and he seems to want to fight Islam Makhachev. That’s a trifecta of terrible matchups. That’s everything The Fight Guy respects in a fighter. I just can’t get over his haircut. Here’s my betting advice for the Kevin Lee-Gillespie fight,

“I think he poses a lot of problems that Gillespie hasn’t seen before, but I just checked Lee’s Instagram and I hate his haircut. Doesn’t he have friends that tell him, “That haircut makes you look bad.”? Kevin Lee is a subjectively good looking guy, just get a high fade.”

A wise man once said, “Never make fun of someone for something god gave them, but if it’s their choice, it’s fair game.” Maybe it’s because I’m white and “I don’t get it.” But, I’m pretty sure that cut transcends race.

Things I like:

Kevin Lee is a very good MMA wrestler. American College wrestling is not MMA wrestling. Kevin Lee was highly recruited out of high school as a wrestler but chose to get into MMA to support his brothers and sisters. He won scrambles with Tony Ferguson, He nearly choked out Michael Chiesa, he dominated Edson Barboza on the ground, and at times he won grappling exchanges with “crazy” Al Iaquinta which no easy feat, Al’s good on the ground. Kevin Lee not only will take his opponents back and find full mount, but he will capitalize from these dominant grappling positions. He’s a threat to choke you from your back and he delivers devastating ground and pound from full mount.

Kevin Lee has a very nice left high kick and left body kick from the southpaw and orthodox stances. He KO’d Gregor Gillespie with that high kick, that wasn’t an accident, he caught Tony Ferguson with it too. That’s his best strike. He also has a strong, crisp left jab.

Kevin Lee kind of reached a tough spot in his career and turned to Tristar. Fight camps matter and that seems like a good fit for him.

Things I don’t like:

There seems to be a very real problem with Kevin Lee fading in fights. As the Al Iaquinta fight lingered on he looked tired, he gassed in the Tony Ferguson fight, and RDA seemed to break him in Rochester at 170 lbs.

Kevin Lee also has a history of Staph infection, I’ll have to talk to Dr. Matt about whether or not people are genetically more susceptible to Staph Infection or if Kevin Lee has been a victim of unfortunate circumstance. Has Staph Infection dramatically impacted Kevin Lee’s ability to perform?

In Kevin Lee’s loses to Tony Ferguson, “Crazy” Al, and RDA Kevin Lee had to play defense. Kevin Lee mounted Tony, Kevin Lee took “Crazy” Al’s back, and Kevin Lee could not dictate the RDA fight with his wrestling. I’m wondering if there is a theme here with Kevin Lee being really good at being the hammer, like the Edson Barboza fight, but really struggling when he gets legitimate pushback from his opponent.

I know Kevin Lee KO’d Gillespie, but I don’t see KO power from Kevin Lee’s striking. I also don’t believe Kevin Lee fully utilizes his reach with his standup. His left jab is solid, but he doesn’t seem to fight long. His striking seems like the striking of an overly muscled fighter, no fluidity, forced.

Charles Oliveira (5'10", 74" reach, 30 years old, Brazil)

Charles Oliveira has been clamoring for a top 10 opponent. He’s been on a 6 fight winning streak and a win over Kevin Lee would catapult him up the rankings. He’s in his home country with a top ten opponent, he has gotten exactly what he’s asked for. “Do Bronx” is also on a 13 UFC fight streak without a fight going to decision…I’m looking at 25 UFC fights, only 2 have gone to a decision, that’s an unbelievable statistic.

Things I like:

Charles Oliveira is a Jut Jitsu Wizard. In any grappling situation, he’s always attacking your head looking to choke you. He prefers side control as an avenue to choke you, ground and pound from top position isn’t his specialty. He is the UFC’s leader in submissions. He’s very good in scramble situations at finding your back and locking both hooks in. When you fight Charles Oliveira your gameplan shouldn’t be wrestle him to the ground and grind your way to a victory. Jiu Jitsu Wizards tend to have one deficiency, they need wrestling to take their opponents to the ground, Oliveira is not a dominant wrestler. He’s very capable of timing a double leg or working from the clinch, but a high level MMA wrestler should be able to have a kick boxing match against Oliveira.

Oliveira isn’t a dominant wrestler, but he’s a fantastic Muay Thai Guy. The variety of strikes he throws are nearly impossible to prepare for and he is deadly aggressive with his striking. I specifically like his jumping knee as a way to end a fight. Because Oliveira is a Jiu Jitsu Wizard, Oliveira can focus solely on the Muay Thai art without worrying about being taken down. He throws spinning elbows, jumping kicks to the face, teep kicks as jabs, all sorts of wild cool stuff.

Oliveira is super active, that’s usually a good sign for a fighter.

Things I don’t like:

Because Oliveira is so aggressive with his striking he can be caught with a counter punch. There’s usually an inverse relationship with aggressive striking and vulnerability. I won’t be surprised if Oliveira is caught with a big punch. He does leave his lead leg out there to be kicked, and I specifically noticed that he can be countered with a right hand when he throws an inside leg kick with his left leg.

Charles has had issues making 145 lbs and has found a home at 155 lbs. Guys like Paul Felder and Kevin Lee kill themselves to make 155 lbs, they don’t do it for fun or for their health, they do it because size gives you an advantage on fight night. Being a little smaller than your opponent isn’t the end of the world, but Oliveira will be the smaller guy against Kevin Lee. Oliveira has a history of being overpowered by bigger guys like Paul Felder.

If you look at Charles Oliveira’s record, the guys he has lost to are very good MMA fighters. The fighters he’s beaten seem to be lower level MMA guys that he arguably should beat. It’s not Charles Oliveira’s fault Sean Shelby matched him up with Nik Lentz 3 times, but it is a thing.

Oliveira hasn’t gone to a decision once in 13 fights. I’ve seen him gas out against bigger guys, I’m not ready to say his cardio is his strength. I’m looking at 25 UFC fights, only 2 have gone to decision. That’s a weird statistic.

Prediction

The only advantage I see for Kevin Lee in this fight is if he can overpower Charles Oliveira in top position with ground and pound. If Kevin Lee can’t win with top position ground and pound, I don’t see how this fight is much different from the 2nd Kevin Lee vs. “Crazy” Al Iaquinta fight. If Oliveira presents grappling challenges for Kevin Lee on the ground, he will eventually start hurting Kevin Lee with his Muay Thai on the feet. I think we are looking at a 3rd round stoppage from Charles Oliveira in the wonderful city of Brasília, Brazil.

Betting

Unless Tristar has turned Kevin Lee into a much better fighter, which is not out of the question, I don’t see why betting Charles Oliveira in Brasília, Brazil as an underdog is a bad idea. Based on my experience, sometimes you get better odds on the props as it gets closer to fight time.

Charles Oliveira Wins (+120)

Charles Oliveira Wins in Round 3 (+950)

Charles Oliveira Wins in Round 4 (+1350)

Charles Oliveira Wins by KO (+750)

Gilbert Burns (-170) Demian Maia (+150)

Demian Maia (6'1", 72" reach, 42 years old, Brazil)

Things I like:

Demian Maia is the Wizard of all Jiu Jitsu Wizards. When Dorothy and Co. are skipping along the yellow brick road, they were off to see Demian Maia. Maia’s more of a wizard than a mutant on the ground, but if you want to call Maia a mutant, I’d be okay with it, he’s on the Jiu Jitsu Mount Rushmore. Except for you Brendan Fitzgerald, stop biting off The Fight Guy trying to make it as the token white guy in the UFC commentating crew. I know the UFC is sending your ass to Brazil to commentate a crowdless fight, don’t be stealing my stuff anymore without asking.

Anyways, Maia attacks with a single leg takedown. He can pull half guard and end up attacking the single leg. A good wrestler can stuff him more often than not, but, if he latches on to you, you will be wearing him as a backpack for the rest of the round.

Demian Maia is not a small 170 lbs fighter. He used to fight at 185 lbs, he carries some size with him. He can still throw a left hand with a little bit of power and Maia’s choking squeeze is unmatched, look at the GIF above.

Maia’s been doing Jiu Jitsu at the highest of levels for almost his entire life. His body is conditioned to grapple through fatigue, this is what he does. This is his nature. I’m also a little bit of a believer in old man strength carrying over into grappling strength within the octagon.

Very durable fighter.

Things I don’t like:

Fighting is and will always be a young man’s sport, Maia is 42 years old. Old man strength or not, younger is better.

Fatigue is a real factor in every one of Maia’s fights. When Maia hangs onto his opponent like a backpack with that body triangle, his legs will burn out.

His lead leg is open for huge leg kicks. Jorge Masvidal smashed his lead leg when he wasn’t engaged in grappling exchanges.

I don’t like how Ben Askren hit him in the face so many times. Ben Askren is not a high level striker.

Maia will take round 3’s off assuming he won the first 2 rounds.

Gilbert Burns (5'10", 71" reach, 33 years old, Brazil)

Things I like:

Gilbert Burns is a mutant on the ground (I’m watching you Fitzgerald). Bruns’ grappling is so high level that it’s not unreasonable to think he can cancel out Maia’s and turn this thing into a kick boxing match.

Burns’ striking has evolved over the years. He features a really strong low calf kick and some big right hands. He has a tendency to be a little wild with his right hand.

Really good Judo throws.

Gilbert Burns seems to corner and coach a lot of fighters. He’s always around the mat, corning fighters, teaching and learning. In hockey they call someone like that a, “rink rat”. I’m not sure what the equivalent is in grappling, but that’s was Burnsy is. That can only be good for his fighting career.

Things I don’t like:

Burns has moved up to 170 lbs from 155 lbs. He’s not a small 170 lbs fighter, but his cardio hasn’t been great in this division. Carrying a little extra weight may have taxed his cardio.

Burns didn’t overmatch Gunnar Nelson with his striking. I thought he would have more of an advantage on the feet with Gunnar.

Gunnar also found the clinch against the fence. I’m not sure even Gilbert Burns can survive a standing clinch against the fence against Demian Maia.

Prediction

Originally, I figured the grappling would cancel out and we were looking at a kickboxing match. In that situation I thought Burns’ striking was better. But after watching the tape I’m not in love with Burns as I thought I’d be. Demian Maia is a stud, he has a little size on Burns and I can see Maia taking Burns’ back from the clinch against the fence. Push comes to shove, I’m still going with the younger fighter to win a decision, but I’m not confident.

Betting

Hard pass on this one. I’m just here for the show. I wouldn’t bet Burnsy.

Pass

Jussier Formiga (-150) Brandon Moreno (+130)

I really want to get into the Brandon Moreno Jussier Formiga fight. Hopefully I will have enough time tomorrow.