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The best stat for measuring an individual players' production (which, I admit, is different than performance, but we'll get back to that) is the EPA, or expected points added. Essentially, it looks at where a team was before a play, in terms of score and field position, and after a play and assigns a point value to the play. That point value is based on how the score and field position changed. Field position, down and distance are converted to an expected point value based on what teams do on average over the course of the possession from that situation.





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Against Alabama, Manziel scored a 22.6. That's good. It is the 15th highest single-game EPA by a player this season (AJ McCarron scored a 23 in that same game). But it could have been much better. Sunseri grabbed the tipped pass and took it back for a touchdown. On that one play Manziel scored a -7.2. Remove that play and Manziel scores a 29.8 and the 4th highest single-game EPA of the season (2 points behind Mariota vs. Tennessee). If Manziel had managed to bring down Sunseri after the interception he finishes with a 26.4 (8th best).We can't just remove bad plays and highlight good plays, but we also shouldn't compare apples and oranges. The three highest EPA performances this season came from Mariota (vs. Tennessee), Blake Bell (vs. Tulsa) and Keeton (vs. Air Force). Each performance is impressive in its own right, but racking up stats against Tennessee, Tulsa and Air Force, or even McCarron's 23 against A&M, is not the same as doing it against Alabama.Fortunately, we can adjust a player's performance for the strength of the competition. Basically, we look at what other players have done against that defense and against all other defenses, throw it in a fancy algorithm, and come up with a value that reflects how hard it is to run, throw and catch against each team.When we adjust for the competition, Manziel's 22.6 becomes a 50.5, the highest-single game EPA+ ("+"=adjusted) of the season (Mariota's 40.8 against Tennessee is tied for second). But we shouldn't put too much stock in these results. Manziel has only played one half against another FBS opponent and Alabama had only played Virginia Tech. The 50.5 is the computer's way of saying, "Holy smokes, this Manziel guy is a lot better than Logan Thomas." That's not news.So instead, I threw this game in the 2012 season - what if 2012 Johnny Manziel had done this against 2012 Alabama? How would the computer interpret that? When we do that, and adjust for competition, Manziel against Alabama comes in 22nd since 2005. Great, but not historical. Sam Bradford had three better games, RGIII, Colt Brennan, and Vince Young had two. Even Manziel himself scored higher against Missouri last season. Geno Smith against Baylor, the leader of the pack, was 5.7 points better (Smith's raw EPA from that game was a 51.3, almost 30 points higher than Manziel's). This is not an insignificant gap, but if that tipped ball had somehow fallen through Sunseri's hands, Manziel would have had the single-most productive game for an individual player in the last nine years . . . and probably of all time. Throw out the second interception and this performance would be a full touchdown better than any we've ever seen before. Unfortunately, football doesn't work like that.Subjectively, given the moment, I've said that I think this was the most impressive offensive performance in the last decade and maybe of all time (though I'm admittedly too young to speak of such things). The accumulated stats with the (insufficient) 4th quarter comeback are awe worthy. If the A&M defense had come up with a couple more stops, the rest of the college football world might see it the same way.