The analysis above poses some very serious questions for energy-importing nations like the UK. Addressing them will take years, decades even. Here and now, though, we need to accept that in the months to come, among rising fuel and food costs, inflationary expectations will soar. This week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee must decide if it will grasp the nettle and raise interest rates. With CPI inflation having been above the 3pc “upper limit” for 20 of the last 36 months, and commodity prices set to send the index into orbit, further delay will leave the Bank’s credibility in tatters.