Economists are leading a debate about whether now is the time to start rolling back social distancing restrictions in Australia, given rapidly falling new infection rates for COVID-19 and mounting economic and social costs of the widespread shutdown.

The profession is deeply divided, and that is mainly because there is no correct or easy answer.

Only hindsight will conclusively determine whether Australia did too little, too much or just about the right amount at the right time to contain the spread of COVID-19.

But one thing that is abundantly clear already is that there is a vast disparity between the group bearing the heaviest cost of the economic and social shutdown — the young — compared to the group gaining the greatest immediate personal benefit from containing the disease — the elderly.

Young shoulder the greatest financial burden

As much as it pains me to say it, I'm not really young anymore.

And so I write this piece sitting in the front room of a house I own (well, own a small part of so far), on a work laptop from my publicly-funded employer with my (reasonably) secure permanent full-time job.

Not everyone in their mid-30s is this lucky, but at least a decent number of us are.

This financial security, on average, rises for those in their 40s, and even more so for those in their 50s, 60s and beyond who bought properties before or in the early stages of the largest increase Australian property prices have ever seen, and probably ever will.

This is even more true for most, but of course not all, of those in retirement, the overwhelming majority of whom own the home they live in outright, meaning their basic living costs are extraordinarily low and asset wealth significant even if they do have to get by on the pension.

Contrast this with those under 35.

The majority rent privately (around 60 per cent) and the minority who don't will have only just purchased their home, paying record (or close to record) prices in most cases and with the vast bulk of their mortgage debt still hanging over their heads.

Almost no-one in this age group owns their home outright or has a subsidised public housing rental.

Yet the support measures announced by governments (federal and state) have done little to help private renters other than making it harder for landlords to turf them out immediately.

When the crisis ends, it seems many in this group of predominantly young people will be left with thousands of dollars in rental arrears or a credit black mark against their name if they fail to pay up.

Young people too often precariously employed

Not only do some in this group have large debts — and most few assets or savings, with large regular rent costs — they are also more likely to be precariously employed as casuals, contractors or in the gig economy.

A 2018 Australian Industry Group report revealed that three-quarters of workers under 20 were employed casually, 42 per cent of those in their early 20s and 18 per cent of those in their late 20s or early 30s.

The rate of casual employment then drops off to around 13-14 per cent for middle-aged workers, before ticking back up slightly for those over 60.

Obviously, many young people choose casual work because of study commitments, but for others it's all they can get.

Either way, on both the principle of last in, first out and who is easiest and cheapest to fire, young casuals generally get hit hardest by any economic downturn in terms of job losses and financial hardship.

History shows the damage to career prospects and earnings is often long-term, even permanent.

But the COVID-19 recession is even worse for this group than previous downturns because they are vastly over-represented in the sectors being hit hardest by social distancing and forced shutdowns.

Research by ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch, based on ABS data, shows that three of the six industries that have slashed staff hours the most due to COVID-19 are hospitality, retail, and arts and recreation, which collectively employ 45 per cent of young people compared to 27 per cent of all other age groups.

Young workers dominate many of the industries hit hardest by COVID-19 restrictions. ( Supplied: ABS/ANZ )

More than a quarter of accommodation and hospitality jobs had already gone by April 4, according to new data from the ABS, along with almost a fifth of jobs in arts and recreation. Retail has also been hit hard.

The job losses in these sectors have been made even worse because they are the three most casualised industries, with more than half of hospitality staff and over a third of retail and arts and recreation employees working on a casual basis.

The casual nature of employment meant that workers simply stopped getting shifts overnight as new restrictions limited businesses, and also that the workers had no leave or redundancy entitlements to soften the blow.

Given that many of these workers are low-paid, there is hope that JobKeeper will see many of them retain their jobs, with some part-time workers possibly even seeing a pay rise to $1,500 a fortnight.

But, if you're a casual, you have to have been with the same employer for at least a year to be eligible, which Catherine Birch estimates will exclude more than a quarter of young workers from the payment.

Youth still suffering post-global financial crisis

Not only that, but Ms Birch points out that young workers were already doing worse than everyone else: while general unemployment pre-COVID-19 was around 1 percentage point higher than before the global financial crisis in 2008, youth unemployment remained 3 percentage points higher.

Youth underemployment was even worse — at 18.2 per cent, it was more than double the level of any other age group before the COVID-19 crisis struck.

On the flip side, those of us who are older and more likely to be in permanent employment are better placed to weather this storm.

For a start, as long as your employer remains in business, you are likely to at least receive JobKeeper payments, which are a couple of hundred dollars a week more than JobSeeker.

The older you are, the more likely you are to have finished paying off your mortgage, or at least be ahead in your repayments, as the majority of mortgagors are.

You may have some savings or investments, and you probably also actually have enough super that you can take advantage of the Federal Government offer to draw down on it.

If you are lucky enough to be retired and own your home outright with no debt then you're laughing during this crisis, at least financially.

Yes, any super and investments you've got may have taken a big hit, but at least you're guaranteed an income (the aged pension) and a roof over your head.

This contrasts with the infection fatality rate from COVID-19, which recent estimates put near zero for those aged under 19, rising steadily to be below 0.1 per cent for those under 40, before basically doubling or tripling for every additional decade to reach somewhere between 8 and 14 per cent for over-80s.

Taken as a whole, this research published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases at the end of March estimated over-60s have a 3.3 per cent chance of dying if they contract COVID-19, versus a 0.03 per cent risk for adults under 30.

Never waste a good crisis

The above analysis is not to argue that young people should, as a very few have, say damn the old and defy social distancing. Nor that social distancing should necessarily be wound back in a hurry.

But it might perhaps give a sense of what the post-recession economic and tax policies should look like.

The political cliché is that you should never waste a good crisis, and COVID-19 appears to be a case in point.

Big business is already putting in bids for company tax cuts and industrial relations changes after the shutdown ends.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has reiterated his view that the company tax rate is too high, hinting that the Government might again try to cut it from 30 to 25 per cent for big businesses in October's delayed budget.

Sorry, this audio has expired Government has no plans to raise GST to aid pandemic recovery, Frydenberg says

Mr Frydenberg is hoping for a consensus to form around economic reforms to help re-start Australia's economy once the COVID-19 crisis ends.

It's a worthy ambition but will require give and take from all sides.

Putting aside the debate of whether the Federal Government needs to get back to surplus after the crisis to start paying down debt (that is a whole other analysis), and assuming it does, then there's no room for any tax cuts without either cuts to services or other tax rises.

Chance for the old to repay a debt to the young?

Given that it is young people who are bearing the brunt of the recession in a community effort to save the lives of (mainly) older Australians, it would seem to make sense that wealthier older Australians should repay some of this sacrifice.

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This would be nothing new. As we approach Anzac Day, we annually honour the sacrifices made by (mainly) younger soldiers to protect Australia and advance our national interests.

In practical terms, after World War II, Australian governments implemented various programs to help returned servicemen (as they mainly were then) get jobs and afford homes.

Given the dramatic declines in home ownership amongst the young, and the looming extreme rates of youth unemployment, we could consider doing the same again.

It would cost money — a lot of it.

But perhaps those wealthier baby boomer retirees who baulked at the prospect of losing franking credit refunds from their untaxed superannuation income might think again if community action to control COVID-19 means they are still around to enjoy their money?

The same could be said for winding back negative gearing, the 50 per cent discount on capital gains tax for long-held investment properties and tax advantages from superannuation and trusts used by many wealthy people to protect the inheritance they leave for their children.

Wealth, inheritance and expanded land taxation could also be back on the agenda.

Most importantly, as recently suggested by former Reserve Bank board member Warwick McKibbin, maybe Australian governments can use their experience of cooperating to contain COVID-19 as a template to address the far more serious threat to humanity from climate change.

Sorry, this audio has expired RBA warns of 'biggest contraction since 1930s' due to COVID-19

Perhaps the sacrifices made by younger Australians who aren't likely to endure the worst effects of COVID-19 can be reciprocated by older Australians who aren't likely to feel the worst effects of a rapidly warming planet.

Perhaps. Or maybe not.

"I don't understand how increasing taxes on people in that way — particularly the ones you're referring to [negative gearing and franking credits reforms] — actually helps grow the economy," the Prime Minister said at a press conference this week.

"I've never understood that argument. I mean there are some things that remain truisms."

The lack of political cooperation on tax policy so far looks set to be another one of those truisms.