

Here are some indications of U.S. success in the decade-long Afghanistan war: a recent rise in suicide attacks and homemade bombs.

Those were some unlikely examples Lt. Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the war's day-to-day commander, cited to Pentagon reporters on Wednesday morning to support his claim that U.S. forces were making "steady progress throughout" Afghanistan. "We certainly have the momentum," Scaparrotti said.

Except that the most recent United Nations report found that civilian casualties in Afghanistan are up eight percent – making 2011 the fifth consecutive year the war's civilian death toll has risen, despite a U.S. strategy predicated on keeping Afghans safe from harm. The discrepancy between statistics like that and the sunny assessments made by officers like Scaparrotti prompted an Army lieutenant colonel who served two tours in Afghanistan, Daniel Davis, to blast his superiors for misleading the public in a recent Armed Forces Journal essay.

Scaparrotti, who said he accepted the U.N.'s statistics, pointed out that the vast majority of Afghan civilians – 77 percent – die because of insurgent actions. When Danger Room asked if the increase in total civilian deaths indicated that the insurgents still have a free hand to attack, Scaparrotti replied, "I'd say it's actually reduced. It's pushed them into a certain [set of tactics] which isn't ideal."

Namely: suicide bombings and improvised explosive devices. While Scaparrotti conceded there was a "freedom of action that they have, in some places," he said the "freedom of action [insurgents] show today is increasingly in IEDs and suicide bombing. They don't have the capability to take us on directly."

The U.N. concluded that insurgent bombs are now the "single largest killer of Afghan children, women and men in 2011." Suicide bombings have "dramatically" increased, and are now killing 80 percent more Afghans than in 2010.

Perhaps the Taliban might not be able to take on U.S. forces directly, but they've expanded their ability to plant low-level bombs and launch high-profile suicide attacks. "I don't know that that's an increased freedom of action," Scaparrotti said.

Scaparrotti also dismissed Davis' failing grade for Afghan soldiers and police, calling it "one person's view of this." Scaparrotti said his own classified intelligence showed a rosier picture of the Afghans' performance – even though Davis asserted that classified data showed the opposite.

Thirty percent of U.S.-Afghan offensive operations are planned and run by Afghan forces, Scaparrotti said. But he conceded that only "about one percent" of Afghan battalions operate independently of U.S. forces. Well, sort of. Scaparrotti said the "top" category NATO uses to assess Afghan performance is called "Independent With Advisers," so it appears that NATO doesn't actually expect Afghan forces to operate totally on their own. Still, back in September, zero Afghan battalions operated (quasi) independently.

Scaparrotti's priorities for the coming year in Afghanistan won't just be to "maintain the momentum" of the war and "accelerate" the development of the Afghan forces. He said they included the imperative to "communicate visibile, tangible and recognizable progress." So it's possible the U.S. will continue to see the bright side of minimal Afghan independence, increased suicide attacks and proliferating homemade insurgent bombs.

Photo: DVIDS