PARLIAMENTARY elections in Sweden on September 9th delivered a small note of optimism for European liberals. The Swedish Democrats, an anti-immigrant party with white-supremacist roots, had been hoping to become the country’s second-largest holder of seats in the Riksdag. They did increase their vote share to 17.6% from 12.9% four years ago, but their showing fell short of expectations, and they are unlikely to become parliamentary kingmakers.

Sweden’s election appears to buck a trend. Over the past three years right-wing parties opposed to immigration have gained ground across Europe. Poland’s Law and Justice party won 38% of votes in October 2015; Germany’s AfD grabbed 13% in 2017; and the Lega Nord in Italy entered a coalition government in March 2018. In the EU countries’ most recent general elections, anti-immigrant parties have taken 12% of the vote, on average.

Latest polling data do show that the trend is highly concentrated in a few countries, rather than a broad-based movement across the continent. Although support for anti-immigrant parties across 13 European countries has doubled from 12.5% in January 2013 to 25% today, much of this is driven by sentiment in Germany, Italy and Poland, alone. That leaves open the possibility that the surging populist parties may simply be benefiting from charismatic leaders or unusually ill-advised immigration policies. In ten of the 13 countries conservative populists have actually lost ground relative to 2016.