Kimberly Miller and Gareth McGrath

USA TODAY Network

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Emergency managers run drills on handling multiple catastrophes at once, such as a cyberattack during a tornado or a mass shooting amid a destructive flood.

But most disaster plots don’t involve a months-long pandemic sapping resources globally from aid groups and governments while so much of the nation is shut down, self-isolating and unemployed.

This is where they find themselves in the run-up to the 2020 hurricane season, which leading forecasts predict will be the fifth consecutive year of above-normal activity. A forecast released Thursday suggests we could see four major hurricanes develop.

The U.S. may still be battling the coronavirus outbreak when hurricane season officially begins June 1, and waves of infections could follow during peak months for storms in late summer and early fall. Emergency officials say major storms could severely strain the ability of states and the federal government to protect lives. How do you evacuate coastal areas and open shelters with social distancing? What about supplies of food and medical equipment?

“There are no timetables man can set for the coronavirus. The assumption has to be that we will still have this June 1,” said Craig Fugate, a former FEMA administrator who was director of the Florida Emergency Management Division from 2001 to 2009. “Hurricane season cannot be postponed by presidential executive order.”

April is when typically when campaigns begin about preparing for hurricanes. But directions on evacuation routes and shelters have been replaced this year by pleas to stay home to contain the coronavirus and instructions on applying for unemployment.

The National Hurricane Conference and Florida’s Governor’s Hurricane Conference were both canceled, chances lost to learn the latest in first-responder tactics, atmospheric conditions and best-practice recovery efforts.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday in West Palm Beach that he is aware of the forecasts calling for another active season and worries about how “the social fabric holds up.”

He’s less concerned about paying for another tropically-mustered disaster, such as 2018’s Category 5 Hurricane Michael, which flattened parts of the Panhandle and ripped apart homes on a path that stretched into Georgia.

“I would say in terms of the financial preparedness, I think because of the federal bill, we should be able to get money for (the coronavirus), so we are spending money but should get reimbursed,” DeSantis said. “Financially, we will be able to weather it from a government perspective.”

Still, there are the mechanics of hurricane preparedness to deal with. Would the infected or potentially sick be sent to separate facilities?

“It does throw a unique spin on it,” said Steven Still, emergency management director for coastal New Hanover County, N.C., which has suffered near direct blows from multiple hurricanes in recent years. “It’s a major challenge, no doubt.”

Still said social distancing requirements would limit how many people could seek refuge in shelters. That means local governments would need to open more of them.

Evacuees, including special-needs cases, would require more buses to keep folks a safe distance apart. And moving coronavirus victims on ventilators could become a major endeavor that would require action well before a storm approaches the coast – assuming there’s hospital space inland to take them.

And then there are the personal mental and financial barriers. People may be hesitant to evacuate for fear of going to a shelter with the infected. With record unemployment, people may not have gas money or a way to pay for a hotel.

“Much of what we use as baseline assumptions for emergencies will not work right now,” said Bryan Koon, a former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management who is now a disaster consultant. “We can’t open shelters like we used to under current social distancing guidelines.”

During 2017’s Hurricane Irma, which made landfall in the Florida Keys as a Category 4 storm, nearly 7 million people evacuated, with 300,000 going to shelters, Koon said.

Peak hurricane season runs August through October, but that doesn’t mean a damaging storm can’t form earlier. In 2005, Hurricane Dennis made landfall as a Cat 3 near Navarre Beach, Florida, on July 10. Last summer, Hurricane Barry hit Louisiana – one of the country's coronavirus hotspots – on July 13.

“Natural disasters don’t care what is going on with human health issues,” Koon said.

The 2020 hurricane season will follow four unusually active years for numbers of storms and ferocity. Six Category 5 hurricanes have formed beginning with Matthew in 2016, followed by 2017's Irma and Maria, 2018's Michael and 2019’s Dorian and Lorenzo.

Climate trends show a cooling over the next several months in the equatorial Pacific consistent with a neutral or La Niña pattern. Whereas El Niño creates wind shear that inhibits tropical cyclones, these conditions are more accommodating to the formation of hurricanes.

AccuWeather’s forecast for 2020 includes 14 to 18 named storms, seven to nine hurricanes, and two to four major storms of Category 3 or higher.

An average year has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Colorado State University, which released its forecast Thursday, is also predicting an above normal season with 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

April is a difficult time to make predictions, but AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Dan Kottlowski is secure in his forecast.

“It’s going to be a busy season, no doubt, especially August, September and October,” he said.

That worries Stephanie Kaple, executive director of the Florida Keys Outreach Coalition, who is still dealing with Hurricane Irma fallout and now struggling with high unemployment because of the coronavirus.

With service industry jobs decimated by orders to close restaurants and bars, her food pantry is empty and there’s no rental assistance left. Kaple said 44% of jobs in Monroe County are directly related to tourism.

The Keys closed its doors to tourists on March 22.

“We do have some reserves, but how much do you draw upon for COVID-19 and then go into a hurricane season where we may face multiple threats,” she said. “This is more stressful to me than Irma, and that’s insane because I have water, lights, a grocery store.”

Kaple said she’s worried where help will come from if there is another Irma this year.

It’s a concern for the storm-savvy Carolinas also.

In 2018, Hurricane Florence dropped a historic 26 inches of rain across the eastern half of the Carolinas and hammered the area for 36 hours. Still, cut off with no power and running out of supplies, officials knew help would eventually reach the region from other parts of North Carolina that hadn’t been impacted by the storm.

This year, officials are warily eyeing the possibility of dealing with a hurricane and a pandemic at the same time.

“Absolutely that’s our nightmare scenario,” said Wilmington Mayor Bill Saffo. “We’ve been thinking about it from the time this all started. It would be the perfect storm for all of us.”

Koon, the disaster consultant, said there may be no cavalry for storm victims this year.

County emergency management offices are typically staffed light with the assumption that areas unscathed by a disaster will help those hit the hardest. Convoys of trucks from out-of-state electric companies flood in, as well as nonprofit aid groups.

With electric companies giving breaks now to the suddenly unemployed, they may be hesitant to spend more money lending a hand after a storm.

“Out-of-state support is off the table right now because every jurisdiction is keeping their folks close,” Koon said. “Then you have social distancing and self-isolating. How do you jam a bunch of people into an emergency operations center?”

Even FEMA could be overwhelmed, Koon said.

It’s a point Florida Emergency Manager Jared Moskowitz made in a social media post recently when someone asked why FEMA wasn’t doing more to negotiate for protective masks for states.

“FEMA has been great. But normally we don’t have a hurricane in all 50 states and every country simultaneously,” Moskowitz said.

Brock Long, executive chairman of Hagerty Consulting and a former FEMA administrator, is optimistic the country can manage both a major storm and coronavirus.

Long dealt with more than 220 disasters in 2017 and 2018, including major landfalling hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria and Michael. There were also wildfires in California, volcanic eruptions in Hawaii and a 7.1 magnitude earthquake in Alaska.

For those two years, Long said about 90 percent of FEMA field employees were deployed. With the coronavirus, he estimates it’s about 15 percent.

“This is the most battle-hardened FEMA and emergency management division that ever existed,” Long said.

FEMA is cross-training staff to work through hurricane situations mindful of coronavirus, he said, stressing that disaster response is a local responsibility with FEMA filling in the gaps.

He acknowledged that individual assistance may play a bigger role this hurricane season with so many people going into it unemployed, lacking the money to harden homes, buy supplies or pay for evacuations.

“When you have neighbor helping neighbor, nonprofits, local, state and federal governments coming together, and the private sector, we tend to get through these things,” Long said. “We are resilient and we will get through it.”