It appears inevitable the AFL will expand within the decade.

A 19th team placed in Tasmania continues to gain momentum, with a report delivered last month urging the league to introduce a team on the Apple Isle by 2025 “to revive and sustain the sport” in the state.

The Northern Territory is also looking into a bid for a license with the Herald Sun reporting AFL NT will this month release a 100-page report funded by the state government. It suggests a team be introduced in the NT by 2030, playing out of Darwin and Alice Springs, and heavily feature indigenous players.

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Round 18

Neither team is going to replace an existing club such as Gold Coast, given AFL chief Gill McLachlan says the Suns will remain in the AFL “forever”. The team is also helping spur on massive participation growth in the region.

Expansion into Tasmania and the top end would help truly turn the AFL into a national competition, bringing top-level footy to regions that are already footy-mad. But they aren’t the only contenders.

It would seem obvious if the AFL expands, it would grow to 20 teams. An odd number is simply awkward in terms of fixturing — and adding another game each weekend would almost certainly add to the value of the television rights deal.

It could also be good for the players and competitive balance if the league drops down to a 19-week fixture, with each team playing each other once. Nineteen rounds of 10 games would only be eight fewer matches overall than 22 rounds of nine games, so it wouldn’t mean such a dramatic cut in TV inventory.

So here’s a look at the possible expansion contenders.

Tasmanian premier Peter Gutwein (right) with developer Errol Stewart at UTAS Stadium in Launceston. Photo: Patrick Gee Source: News Corp Australia

TASMANIA

Population (June 2019): 534,300

Applicable Roy Morgan numbers (2018): 259,000 footy supporters across Tasmania and Northern Territory

Participation numbers (2018 AFL Annual Report): 44,707 overall participants

AFL expansion via a Tasmanian team is by far the furthest down the road, with Gillon McLachlan having previously stated “the building blocks are in place” for it to happen eventually.

The report delivered by an AFL Tasmania taskforce claimed the state would earn more than $110 million a year and create more than 360 jobs via the creation of a club, not to mention those employed by the new club itself.

While many have suggested revenue would be an issue for a team based in the state, the taskforce report projected gross revenues of $42.5 million, “bettering the average of similar sized clubs of North Melbourne, GWS, Brisbane, Gold Coast and St Kilda”, and an added $19 million onto the AFL’s next TV rights deal.

Helping a Tassie team’s cause is the state government’s willingness to fund it, at up to $11 million per annum (including insurance). The report also projected membership of 38,400 and average match day attendance of 18,400.

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It proposed matches be played at an expanded UTAS Stadium in Launceston, with a capacity of 27,500, and smaller matches at Hobart’s Blundstone Arena (capacity 20,000), though the team would be likely based in the larger city of Hobart.

Currently Hawthorn plays five games a year in Launceston - four home and away and one pre-season - while North Melbourne plays four a year in Hobart and is also invested via its AFL team, which is officially known as the North Melbourne Tasmanian Kangaroos.

However these deals, which cost the Tasmanian state government around $7 million a year, end in 2021. The Tasmania taskforce report suggested there has been “declining interest” in the Hawks and Roos locally.

There’s also an argument expanding into Tasmania would be the most popular move the AFL could make.

After all, there has been some fan angst over expansion into growth areas via Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast - but only the most hardened VFL fans, still angry about West Coast and Brisbane coming in 33 years ago, would be upset with Tasmania getting a guernsey.

North’s AFLW side is officially the North Melbourne-Tasmanian Kangaroos. (Photo by Steve Bell/Getty Images) Source: Getty Images

NORTHERN TERRITORY

Population: 245,900

Applicable Roy Morgan numbers (2018): 259,000 footy supporters across Tasmania and Northern Territory

Participation numbers (2018 AFL Annual Report): 48,815 overall participants

The top end is keen for its own team, reportedly partially driven by the drop-off in draftees from the area.

An NT AFL club would look to lure stars from the region home, as well as improve the development pathways for local talent. This would assist with player retention, an issue any smaller city hosting an AFL club is likely to face.

Just like in Tasmania, low population numbers mean the team would need to be split between different cities; most Territorians live in Darwin (148,600 in the greater Darwin region as of mid-2018) while another 40,000 or so live in the Alice Springs region.

But if the AFL has always been tentative about expanding into Tasmania for financial reasons, those fears would be worse when it comes to the NT, which has less than half the population of our most southern state.

Gold Coast announced a deal last year to play one game a season at Darwin’s TIO Stadium, and that would loom as the likely home ground for a Northern Territory side, though the NT News reported in January a boutique stadium on the perimeter of the city is being considered.

Gold Coast will play one home and away game a year in Darwin over the next four seasons, while Melbourne will host a game in Alice Springs. Photo: Katrina Bridgeford Source: News Corp Australia

The timeline could be an issue here. As mentioned above, the AFL would likely want to go to 20 teams very soon after going to 19 - GWS entered a year after Gold Coast - to avoid odd-number issues. But an NT team appears a long way off, at least a decade or more, whereas Tasmania is aiming to be ready by 2025.

But just like with Tassie, there would be an acceptance from most AFL fans that the NT is a footy state, and thus deserves its own team.

Western Bulldogs president Peter Gordon backed Tasmania’s business case in front of the Legislative Council select committee inquiry on Tuesday, and in the process backed bringing in the NT to truly represent the entire country.

"It seems to me we ought to be brave about having (the AFL) reflect Australia and regions of Australia and at least equally interested in finishing that job (of creating a national competition) as being focused on international expansion," Gordon said.



WESTERN AUSTRALIA (Third team)

Population: 2,621,700

Applicable Roy Morgan numbers (2018): 1.004 million footy supporters, 13.5 per cent of which are AFL club members

Participation numbers (2018 AFL Annual Report): 342,433 overall participants

Back in 2009, even before Gold Coast and GWS played their first AFL games, then-CEO Andrew Demetriou raised the potential of a 20-team competition.

Even then he recognised Tasmania was the next-best location, but then put two other possibilities on the map; Western Australia or north Queensland.

“I don't think you can ever say never in this world, but if we were to have another team down the track you would have to say that Tasmania is the logical place for that team to be - and we have expressed that view to the Tasmanian Government,” he said.

“Beyond that, if we were to go to 20 teams and who knows, that may or may not happen, you'd have to think it wouldn't be a team in Melbourne because we've got 10.

“But a place like Western Australia, which is a booming state, or even northern Queensland, are the two places that have some attraction."

The West Coast-Fremantle rivalry is spirited, but with how many footy fans live in WA, could the state support a third team? (AAP Image/Richard Wainwright) Source: AAP

The latter seems unlikely, given the well-publicised issues with launching the Suns, as well as the populations of the areas - Townsville, with its population of 180,000 as of 2018, is larger than Darwin but already has an NRL team and less of an AFL heritage.

In contrast, Perth is the second-biggest AFL market in Australia, and the demand for seats at both West Coast and Fremantle games suggests more supply is viable. The Eagles had over 90,000 members in 2019 and averages 53,513 fans at home; the Dockers had over 51,000 members and averaged 40,896 fans at home.

Government officials from both Mandurah (south of Perth) and Joondalup (north) have both publicly made cases for their regions to host a potential third AFL team in years gone by.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA (Third team)

Population (June 2019): 1,751,700

Applicable Roy Morgan numbers (2018): 792,000 footy supporters, 15 per cent of which are AFL club members

Participation numbers (2018 AFL Annual Report): 204,892 overall participants

The case for a third team in Adelaide is similar to that for a third team in Perth, though it appears less likely in SA than it does in WA. To put it simply: all of the numbers are smaller.

The Crows had 64,437 members last season while Port Adelaide had 51,951, and neither team fully packed out Adelaide Oval for its home games on average (capacity 53,000, but the Crows averaged 44,514 and the Power 33,950).

Western Bulldogs president Peter Gordon has previously backed expansion into one of Western Australia or South Australia.

“I think Adelaide and Perth will both have sufficient scale, population and passion to come under consideration for a third club in the future,” he said last year.

CANBERRA

Population (June 2019): 426,700

Applicable Roy Morgan numbers (2018): 1.66 million footy supporters across New South Wales and ACT, 5.2 per cent of which are AFL club members

Participation numbers (2018 AFL Annual Report): 278,389 overall participants (NSW/ACT)

It appears unlikely the AFL will consider Canberra in the next round of expansion, primarily because it doesn’t want to cannibalise the Giants’ growth there.

GWS plays three games a year in the nation’s capital and had 30,109 members by the end of last year, with over 6000 of them based in the ACT.

“I believe it’s Giants territory,” Gill McLachlan told The Daily Telegraph last year.

“I think they’re there now and Canberra is very much a Giants’ town.

“Membership is strong and the crowds are strong. It’s been a very successful partnership with Canberra.”

However it could be argued adding a team in Canberra would be the best way to add a third team to New South Wales.

Given the Giants are still attempting to gain their slice of Sydney, it would give NSW fans outside of the capital a side to support without again dividing the Harbour City.

It would also be the closest team for the Riverina region, and towns with a strong footy heritage such as Wagga Wagga.