Written by Timothy Lewis (@MrTeeLew) — November 30th, 2017

In this weekly segment, I apply numbers to context in an effort to uncover plausible trajectories in the wild world of fantasy football. Last week’s segment had me covering Devontae Booker, Corey Coleman, Semaje Perine, Damien Williams vs Kenyan Drake, and DeAndre Hopkins. Welcome to Trends and Takeaways Week 13. Cheers!

Falcons rising?

In the past 3 games, the Falcons have scored 27 points or more. They had only reached or surpassed that amount in 2 games prior. In this time period, Matt Ryan has completed 73.6% of his passes; Tevin Coleman (the better Falcons running back) has seen the majority of running back touches as Devonta Freeman makes his way through concussion protocol. In the last 6 games, Julio Jones has averaged 112 receiving yards on 6.8 catches per game. Forget his 12 catch, 253 yard performance, and he’s averaged 83.8 yards on 5.8 catches; in 4 of the last 6 games he’s seen 10 or more targets. Does this mean the Falcons have finally figured it out? Has it just been a matter of getting the ball to their best players? The true test lies ahead. Their past three games have come against two bottom-tier defenses in the Cowboys and Buccaneers, with the other occurring against a devastated Seahawks’ secondary. 3 out of their next 4 come against some of the league’s stingier defenses in the Saints and Vikings. If Matty Ice and the gang are able to keep it rolling this week against a punishing Minnesota unit, fantasy gamers should be confident in their Falcon assets after a lethargic start.

Isaiah Crowell’s delayed ROI

CAW CAW (via Sardaka, Wikimedia Commons)

It’s been a rough season for the Browns’ starting back. With an offensive line that shaped up to be dominant, along with a coach committed to the run, Crowell appeared to be a strong RB2 option in the 3rd/4th round of drafts. If you picked him instead of Kareem Hunt, Carlos Hyde or Dalvin Cook, even though the latter has since been injured, you’ve likely been kicking yourself. Fortunately, 16 games makes for a long season and it’s better to have one’s players save their best stuff for the second half. Excluding his performance against Jacksonville, now among the best against the rush following the acquisition of Marcell Dareus, Crowell has averaged 106 total yards on 16.3 touches per game over his last 3. While two of the units in the Lions and Bengals aren’t so great against the run, the undrafted back did shred a Vikings team that has given up the least fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Better yet, in his next two games, Crowell faces the Chargers and Packers, two teams in top 7 of most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. It’s good to have a short memory in this game. Hopefully you didn’t sell the crow for a bag of beans before liftoff. CAW CAW!

Alex Smith and the return to reality

Is it me, or does this meteor look a lot like Alex Smith? (via Rafael Mousob, Pixabay)

Somehow, Alex Smith remains among the top 5 at his position in fantasy points for the season. I don’t expect that to last. The Chiefs have failed to come close to their early season potency and their trio of weapons has totally lost it’s edge. Travis Kelce may be the only safe fantasy asset that remains. And yet, how can we be surprised? When we have a data set as large as the one that exists for Alex Smith, one that has shown him to be no more than a high-end game manager, it was foolish to think he could be schemed into a top-tier option. The most touchdown passes he’s thrown in his career is 23. He’s already at 19. In all his years playing, aside from this season, he’s only met or surpassed that figure twice. Additionally, Smith has never sniffed 4,000 passing yards despite having solid weapons at his disposal throughout his career. According to playerprofiler, Smith’s supporting cast efficiency and his receivers’ average target separation are both top 3 in the league. While those metrics include the dynamite start to the season, there’s reason to believe the Chief’s descent is due to Alex Smith is regressing to the norm: “Just a guy” at the quarterback position. We could see Patrick Mahomes sooner than later if Kansas City’s grip on the division dims further.

Top 100 via NFL

Many have been quick to point out the demise of Dez Bryant. “He’s not getting separation! Look at his catch rate!” Yes, Dez Bryant has seen a sharp decline in catch rate since his injury plagued 2015 season. Discounting the 2015 campaign, his drop in catch rate has a direct correlation with the Cowboy’s transfer from Tony Romo to Dak Prescott. The sophomore quarterback simply doesn’t have the arm talent of his predecessor, as indicated by his number of off-target throws:

Dez has never been a receiver that uses elite acceleration (4.57 40 yard dash) or precise route running to gain separation. Instead, he’s excelled thanks to his long arms, explosive leaping and large catch radius. He feasted by out-competing defensive backs at the catch point. To take advantage of this type of receiver, a quarterback has to be able to throw downfield with accuracy, placing the ball where Bryant has the ability to snare it away from his coverage. Watch the above video from 1:26 (mute the awful “throw the x up” music) and try to tell me that Dak is able to give his receiver the same quality of opportunities. The truth, as we are finding out, is that Prescott isn’t all that special when his phenom running back and offensive line aren’t there to bail him out. With a throw velocity of just 54 MPH and a mediocre ability to push the ball downfield, the chemistry between Dak and Dez isn’t there because the quarterback is short on arm talent.

Demarco Murray is done

Who, me? Yes, you. (via Scott Mecum, Wikimedia Commons)

Demarco Murray looked slow last year, and really slow the year before if you saw him try to turn the corner on those futile Chip Kelly zone sweeps. It was his versatility and superb offensive line that kept him afloat in 2016. As the Titans’ overall efficiency has dropped, Murray has begun to show his age. It’s been something of a battle for snap share between Murray and Derrick Henry, with the veteran dominating opportunities one week, only to see an even split the next. This past week, however, marks the second time Derrick Henry has out-snapped his stablemate. Between the two, YPC efficiency has not been close, slanted in Henry’s favor (4.6–3.5). The Titans have taken notice. Despite playing significantly more snaps throughout the year, Murray has only 15 more carries, although he’s garnered more receptions by a large margin (31–7). Overall, the veteran back isn’t breaking tackles, making men miss, or operating well in space, illustrated by a paltry 4.2 yards per touch and a mere 26 evaded tackles on the season. As Tennessee forges towards the playoffs in the weakest division in football, expect them to lean on their best players. With Marcus Mariota proving to be one of the most disappointing players at the QB position this year, I’m more and more comfortable starting the man/monster that is Derrick Henry.