NOAA forecasters predicting 10-16 named storms for 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Buckle up for another wild ride.

The federal government gives a 75 percent chance the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be near- or above-normal, with five to nine hurricanes expected to form. All that possible activity stirs memories of Hurricane Irma’s wrath through east Central Florida last year.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts 10 to 16 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Thursday. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

Of the hurricanes, one to four could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.

A tropical storm contains wind speeds of 39 mph or higher and becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph.

Already, even before the official season kicks into gear, forecasters are watching a system that's predicted to spin up in the Gulf of Mexico over the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

More: Rain chances increasing as tropical disturbance moves north into Gulf of Mexico

“There are no climate signals that suggest this season will be extremely active like last season, or extremely weak,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The possibility of a weak El Niño developing — along with near-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea — are two of the factors driving this year's outlook. El Niño, a natural warming of the central Pacific Ocean, often acts to tamp down Atlantic hurricanes.

"If an El Niño develops, it could shut down the latter part of the season," Bell said.

El Niño's opposite, La Niña, cools down Pacific Ocean waters and enhances hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

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Atmospheric and oceanic conditions conducive to hurricane development have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.

Earlier this year, meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University — regarded as the nation's top seasonal hurricane forecasters — said 14 named tropical storms will form, of which seven will become hurricanes.

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

New tools

“NOAA’s observational and modeling enhancements for the 2018 season put us on the path to deliver the world’s best regional and global weather models,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction.

“These upgrades are key to improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts, allowing NOAA to deliver the best science and service to the nation.”

More: Hurricane season could be another rough one, scientists say

Database: Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms since 1995

New tools available this year to assist in hurricane forecasts and communications include a litany of new satellites at NOAA’s disposal, such as the GOES-17 satellite that launched in March. It contributes to a comprehensive picture of weather throughout the Western Hemisphere, allowing forecasters to observe storms as they develop.

NOAA has updated and improved forecast models and will roll out new graphic displays, including the “most-likely” arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds.

Preparations

"Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector and the public," said acting FEMA Deputy Administrator Daniel Kaniewski.

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"It only takes one storm to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare. Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have a communication and evacuation plan? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials.”

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NOAA will update the 2018 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.

Last year

Florida had an unusually active hurricane season last year rising out of warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, according to scientists at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The year 2017 ranked fifth for the strongest hurricanes in one season since record keeping began, hurricane center experts said. It tracks behind 1893, 1926, 1933 and 2005.

Last year included immensely powerful Hurricane Irma. When Irma occurred, it was the most intense Atlantic hurricane since Katrina in 2005.

Irma hit Florida twice as a Category 4 in the Keys and Marco Island on Sept. 10, and brought tropical force winds to the east coast. Before hitting Florida it was a Category 5 storm with maximum winds of 185 mph, hurricane experts said.

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Strong winds, embedded tornadoes and heavy rains caused minor to moderate damage to many structures and widespread tree damage on the Space and Treasure coasts.

In Brevard County, more than 7,000 homes were damaged, including 450 destroyed or that suffered major damage, according to a National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Report on the storm.

Brevard County and the Treasure Coast suffered beach erosion.

Vero Beach saw 10 inches of rain, and parts of Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River and southern Brevard counties saw maximum inundation levels of 1 to 3 feet above ground level, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Irma produced heavy rain statewide. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches were common across the peninsula and the Florida Keys, National Weather Service data shows. The maximum reported storm-total rainfall was near Fort Pierce, in St. Lucie County, where 21.66 inches of rain was measured between Sept. 9 and Sept. 12.

The heavy rains triggered millions of gallons of raw sewage — including 20 million gallons into the Indian River Lagoon in Brevard County — to be discharged into coastal waters.

And about 300,000 customers on the city of Cocoa's water system went without running water for two days when an exposed water line under the lagoon pulled apart at the joints. Boil water notices followed for several days after running water was restored.

In Indian River County, 12 people had to be rescued from flood waters, and in Orange County residents were rescued from flooded homes.

Flooding in Jacksonville reached record-breaking levels in some spots and, overall, Irma was responsible for one of the worst flooding events in the city's 225-year history, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Irma spawned 25 confirmed tornadoes: 21 in Florida and four in South Carolina.

One of those touched down in Mims, with estimated winds of 115 to 126 mph. That tornado tore large segments of roofs off numerous homes and uprooted trees.