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First Minister Mark Drakeford is widely expected to announce tomorrow that the proposed M4 relief road south of Newport will not be built.

Although there has been no leak of Mr Drakeford’s decision, which he will announce to AMs in the Senedd, many interested parties have concluded privately that what had been the Welsh Government’s preferred “Black Route” will be rejected.

The rising cost of the project, now estimated to be well over £1bn, coupled with the Welsh Government’s recent declaration of a “climate emergency”, are believed to have swung Mr Drakeford against it.

Bodies like the CBI are strongly in favour of the relief road, complaining that the current M4 is not fit for purpose and sometimes causes serious delays, especially around the Brynglas tunnels. But the proposed relief road is opposed by environmentalists, who say the Gwent Levels, a sensitive wetlands landscape, would be wrecked by having a motorway built through it.

Those against the project also argue that much of the congestion is caused by drivers who use the M4 as a local road, and that it would swallow up the Welsh Government’s entire borrowing allocation, leaving no capacity for worthy schemes elsewhere in Wales.

However, when a public inquiry into the scheme began in early 2017, Welsh Government economist Stephen Bussell gave evidence that the project had a benefit-cost ratio of 2.22, with economic benefits of £2.12bn against a cost of £952m.

The estimated cost of the project subsequently increased.

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The Welsh Government said its proposal was “considered to be the sustainable, long-term solution to current social, environmental and economic problems associated with this route”. and “forms an essential part of our vision for an efficient integrated transport system in south Wales”.

But Bridget Fox, sustainable transport campaigner at the Campaign for Better Transport (CfBT), told the inquiry: “The M4 Black Route would be a disaster for nature, climate and public health. This road was first conceived of 25 years ago and we now know that building more roads does not address the problem of congestion, it only make it worse”.

She said the inquiry “needs to look at genuine alternatives including rail freight and public transport options to get unnecessary journeys off the roads and reduce congestion”.

At the weekend Ruth Jones, the recently elected Labour MP for Newport West, came out strongly in favour of the relief road, telling the BBC: “It’s one of the most crucial decisions that are going to be made in the economy of south east Wales in the next decade probably.

“It’s vital to south east Wales that we have some kind of alleviation of the current situation, congestion, the traffic, and the problems which are affecting Newport, but also the surrounding areas.

“We need a decision because it’s hamstringing industry, schools, homes, tourism as well. All these things are affected by the current congestion and blockages.”

Chris Sutton, a former chairman of CBI Wales, told BBC Radio Wales’ Sunday Supplement programme: “Business is looking for critical infrastructure to be delivered by government.

“It’s for government to make the big decisions and create that business environment.

“As we go to a ‘just-in-time’ economy, at the moment this is a blockage, and it’s really a repair job that’s required. It’s a very difficult stretch of motorway and we need a solution to it.

“This road is so vital to the Welsh economy. Two thirds of the population of Wales lives within 20 miles of the M4, and two thirds of the economy look to this road as its route to market.

“It’s therefore really difficult if we cannot have that resilience and that ability to predictably arrive your goods to market, and indeed workers going to work as well.”

But Chris Roberts, a former general secretary of Welsh Labour and ex-special adviser to the Welsh Government, told the programme: “Wales has just declared a climate emergency. I think it’s going to be very difficult for a government that’s done that to then announce that it’s going to add another 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, just in building the road, let alone the induced traffic that will come from the road.

“We can’t base our country’s future entirely on a particular model of the economy – and a model of the economy that a lot of people would say has failed Wales.

“We need to look at much wider issues – that’s why we’ve brought in The Wellbeing of Future Generations Act.”

Mr Roberts added: “We have a transport system that is fundamentally based on the car, and we need to change that for a whole range of reasons.

“We’ve introduced an Environment Act in Wales to try to change our approach to producing carbon.

“We’ve introduced The Wellbeing of Future Generations Act, which is about changing the way we live.

“We can’t continue to do things the way we were without causing major damage to our planet and our ecosystem.”

Demonstrating that Welsh Labour is not united on the issue, the party’s Newport council leader Debbie Wilcox told the programme: “Newport is an extremely congested city and I am on record as being in support of the M4 [relief road]. I signed the CBI letter.

“We had a cross-party motion through the council that supported the new M4.

“What happens this week will be very interesting. It has gone on for a long time. I’m sure that I as much as anyone would want some resolution to this question.

“Whatever happens, we’ll make the best of it.”