Note: These rankings are in order of who has the best chance of winning the game

1) Wentworth

Kelley’s in the best spot in the game. She has a couple of alliance avenues to go down to final four with: either an all-girls alliance where the four women aim to take out the guys in succession, or her recent alliance of Abi, Keith and Kimmi. The most at risk Kelley is here is for Keith, Spencer, Jeremy and Tasha to vote her out, and if that foursome stays together, I can see Wentworth being the target over Kimmi and Abi. However, she has two things in her favor: 1) Jeremy and Spencer are likely the two biggest threats to win besides Wentworth and each is a challenge competitor, so it might be tough to draw people over to vote with them, and 2) she has her idol if anything gets fishy. Wentworth has already shown she has a keen eye for both playing the idol when needed and sensing a change in the alliances (e.g. voting for Shirin in the second vote when she was in an alliance with her previously), which, along with the opportunity to play hers if Jeremy plays his, will be huge. Going into the week, I give Wentworth the best chance to win the game.

2) Jeremy

It’s really tough to separate Jeremy and Spencer, but I give the edge to Jeremy for three reasons: 1) His closer relationship with Tasha, 2) his idol and good challenge strength being superior than Spencer’s slightly better challenge strength and 3) his likelihood of beating Spencer at the finale. Even if you think it’s a toss-up between Spencer and Jeremy to make the end – and I think Jeremy has a better chance – Jeremy still ranks higher because of his better chance to win in the finals. The real question here is how will Jeremy make it to the end. He could be targeted as soon as this week if his Spencer-Tasha alliance fails to bring over another member. I can see Jeremy working the Keith angle, and if the women’s alliance falls apart Kimmi may be in play as well. Additionally, if Spencer is targeted first and is voted out, even if in the minority Jeremy has a chance to win out since a) the biggest threat left to win challenges will be gone and b) he can afford to skip one with the idol. I have Wentworth ranked higher due to her greater liklihood of making it to the end, but Jeremy is right behind her.

3) Spencer

Spencer made a game changing move when he led the charge to vote out Stephen and that could have been (and could still be) his defining move to sell to the jury. However, following the vote out of Stephen he went right back to the Jeremy-Tasha alliance, instead of going over into the other side and the majority. It’s a move that could possibly backfire for Spencer. Even if he did want to take out Joe, he could’ve tried to align himself better with Wentworth and co. Now, it’s certainly possible he is doing this and is playing both sides, in which case he has a good shot for the finals. But otherwise, Spencer is a huge threat both physically and strategically and it will be hard for him to avoid a vote off. The good news is that he’s a tough challenge competitor, and now that Joe is gone Spencer could turn some of those second place finishes into victories.

4) Tasha

Tasha’s in an interesting position. If she goes to the end with the girls alliance, she will be a strong contender to win, especially if she manages to get out Wentworth at final four. Yet it seems Tasha is really close with Jeremy and may want to go to the end with him, especially considering she told him and Spencer about the girls alliance. From that conversation and what we’ve seen so far, it seems more likely that Tasha will choose the guys going forward. Additionally, from castaway exit press, we’ve often heard that Tasha has a big ego. Might her ego be big enough that she thinks she can beat Spencer and Jeremy at final tribal? Additionally, there is no guarantee that Tasha would win in a Kimmi-Abi-Tasha final three: while she’d be the favorite, she hasn’t led any great moves and hasn’t won an individual challenge when everyone was competing. So her resume, while relatively good, could be usurped by Kimmi if she champions her women’s alliance move.

5) Kimmi

It’s likely that the only way Kimmi can win is in a final three that features her and either Abi, Tasha and/or Keith. I don’t see how Spencer or Jeremy wouldn’t beat her, and it will be tough to compare to Wentworth’s big moves if Kimmi’s sitting next to her in the final 3. I believe Kimmi would lose to Tasha, but it could be closer than we think. If Kimmi executes the women’s alliance move and then sells that as her defining moment, it could pay dividends with the jury. Additionally, it seemed like Stephen and some other players had great respect for Kimmi out there as a person and enjoyed hearing her life story. This contrasts with Tasha, who can rub people the wrong way, as Varner made so clear in one of his exit interviews. I do think Kimmi has a decent shot to make it to the end because she won’t be high on anyone’s boot list, so if she can explain her story well she has a chance.

6) Keith

Coming in just below Kimmi is Keith. We love to love him, but at the end of the day it will be extremely hard for a jury full of hardcore strategists to give Keith the title of Sole Survivor on this second chance season. Many often point to Keith almost winning in San Juan Del Sur, and while we’ll never know what would’ve happened, it’s certainly plausible. I do think it’s less plausible now, but with a final 3 made up of a combo of Abi, Kimmi and Tasha he has a chance. Keith will have to rely on personal connections to get him the million, but I have a feeling he’ll be coming up short.

7) Abi

Unbelievably, it is not out of the question that we could soon be living in a world where Abi Maria is the winner Survivor Second Chance. Highly unlikely, yes, but still a greater chance compared to the 0% she had earlier in the game. Abi has toned down her personal grievances in the second half of the season and has now been aligned with the same alliance, the witches coven, for some time. Additionally, it is impressive that Abi has managed to take out quite a number of people that tried to vote her out. Plus, it could be possible that Abi makes a move here in the later parts of the game. Let’s say at final five the numbers are four women and Keith left. If Abi then makes a move to align with Kimmi and Keith and votes off Wentworth and Tasha in successive order, that’s a pretty good move, and if she can sell that to the jury, even better. It will take a miraculous jury performance, but what if Abi goes up there and says she purposely acted the way she did because people wanted to take her to the end, and hey, the stragey worked because from Day 1 people were saying they wanted Abi at the end. With 3 out of 20 people making it to final tribal, could she sell this strategy and get some votes? Certainly possible. So while I still think Abi has the least chance of winning, I’m ready to say it’s a non-zero chance.