A new Fairfax-Ipsos poll asked Australians to rate their leaders. We now know who has the edge - but will it be enough to win him the election?

Normal text size Larger text size Very large text size Australian voters rate Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as their preferred leader in key areas including economic policy but his lead over Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is narrowing amid a pivotal clash on tax reform. Mr Turnbull's grasp on economic policy is backed by 67 per cent of voters compared to 48 per cent who prefer Mr Shorten, one of nine key benchmarks where the Prime Minister holds the upper hand. An exclusive Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows Mr Shorten holds a significant lead over the Prime Minister on social policy and that 65 per cent of voters believe he has the confidence of his party compared to 55 per cent for Mr Turnbull. Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten are in a battle for votes ahead of the next election. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen While the personal ratings favour Mr Turnbull, the new poll confirms Labor’s convincing lead over the Coalition, with the government trailing by 47 to 53 per cent in two party terms. Parliament resumes on Monday with the government struggling to secure the numbers for the second phase of its company tax cuts, in the wake of last week’s Senate vote to legislate income tax cuts worth $144 billion over a decade. Labor would win at least a dozen seats and record a crushing victory over the Coalition if the results were reflected at an election, before taking into account the advantages for Mr Shorten and his party from a recent redistribution in Victoria.


In addition to his lead on economic policy, Mr Turnbull is rated more highly by voters on foreign policy, where 64 per cent of voters favour him and 45 per cent favour Mr Shorten. Asked who they considered to be a competent leader, 67 per cent named Mr Turnbull and 53 per cent named Mr Shorten. The results do not add up to 100 because the questions on personal attributes were not an “either/or” choice between the two leaders. On the test of their “vision” for the country’s future, Mr Turnbull was favoured by 52 per cent of voters compared to 44 per cent for Mr Shorten. Asked who was a strong leader, 49 per cent named Mr Turnbull and 41 per cent named Mr Shorten. The conclusions are another sign of Mr Turnbull’s personal lead over his rival at a time of continued instability within the Coalition, with former prime minister Tony Abbott challenging the National Energy Guarantee after recently also setting out an alternative position on immigration. Voters are rating Mr Shorten much more highly than they did two years ago, giving him a significant boost on measures such as his vision for Australia, where he is backed by 44 per cent of respondents compared to just 34 per cent in April 2016.


Asked if Mr Shorten is a strong leader, 41 per cent of voters agreed in the latest poll compared to 31 per cent two years ago. Mr Turnbull went in to the May budget with the government trailing Labor by 48 to 52 per cent in two-party terms, only to see this widen to 46 to 54 per cent after the economic plan including the personal income tax cuts. The latest poll puts the government behind by 47 to 53 per cent in two-party terms, based on preference flows at the last election. When respondents were asked how they would allocate their preferences, the result in two-party terms showed the Coalition trailing Labor by 46 per cent to 54 per cent compared to a 50-50 result in early April. Mr Turnbull has kept his lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister, by 51 per cent to 33 per cent, but the Opposition Leader has made a small gain on this measure. Mr Turnbull has lost ground with voters on one key personal measure, with 50 per cent approving his performance compared to 44 per cent who disapprove – up from 39 per cent in the last survey.


This means Mr Turnbull’s net approval rating – the difference between those who approve and disapprove of his performance – shrank by half to just six percentage points. Loading This compares to an enormous lead on the same measure one month after he became Prime Minister, when 68 per cent of voters approved his performance and only 17 per cent disapproved - a net result of 51 percentage points. Mr Shorten saw a small shift in his personal ratings, with his approval increasing from 39 to 40 per cent and his disapproval rating worsening from 51 to 53 per cent. As a result, the Opposition Leader’s net approval rating slipped from minus 12 to minus 13 percentage points. The gains for Mr Shorten come at a time of heightened attention on his political strategy and policy direction, with Labor infrastructure spokesman Anthony Albanese calling for closer cooperation with business and an appeal to workers outside the union movement.


Labor MPs said Mr Albanese’s speech was another sign of his ambition to be seen as an alternative leader, positioning himself ahead of the July 28 byelections and leading to inevitable speculation given he had contested the leadership in 2013. Mr Shorten said the two had an “amicable chat” over the weekend and agreed about the “overblown” reaction to the speech on Friday night. The government has accused Mr Shorten of being a “wholly owned subsidiary” of the unions, while Labor has accused Mr Turnbull of looking after the “big end of town” with his company tax cuts. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video At 35 per cent, the Coalition’s primary vote is seven percentage points below its result at the last election, when it held on to power by just one seat. Labor’s primary vote of 35 per cent is down from 37 per cent in the last Fairfax-Ipsos poll six weeks ago and is the same as the party’s result at the last election. The Greens saw a slight gain in their primary vote, up from 11 to 12 per cent, in a trend that contributed to the Labor lead in two-party terms.

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