The federal horserace has turned into a remarkable three-way tie, driven by a surge in support for the New Democrats. Just three points now separate the NDP, the Conservatives and the Liberals, an echo of the results we saw about two years ago, when all three parties were within five points of each other.

Based on these results, poll guru Paul Barber — author of the TC Norris blog — estimates the Conservatives would earn a slim minority of 125 seats, with the New Democrats retaining Official Opposition status with 117. The Liberals would again be in third place with 94.



The story here appears to be one of NDP success, rather than one of a decline in their rivals’ fortunes. The NDP has jumped five percentage points over the last week, while the Conservatives and Liberals are both down just slightly from their rolling average over the past few weeks.

There are clear echoes here of last week’s shocking upset in the Alberta election, but it would be a mistake to see the NDP’s rise as merely a bounce effect from Alberta. In fact, the past four months have shown a clear pattern of growing support for the New Democrats, lifting them up from 18 points in early February to 29 points today.

Two trends appear to be driving NDP success. The first is the party’s dramatic capture of the university-educated vote, which was critical to the Alberta NDP’s historic victory last week. It’s not clear if this is a ‘strategic’ response from the promiscuous progressive segment of the electorate (people who are more focused on defeating Stephen Harper than they are on electing any particular party) or just the result of rising resentment of the Harper government’s perceived anti-intellectualism.

The second factor is the NDP taking a decisive lead in what was a logjammed Quebec race. The NDP is also newly competitive in Ontario, which is now a three-way race.

Stephen Harper’s approval rating was already in last place when this poll was in the field; it has dropped again, and sharply, along with the directional approval rating of his government, which has reached a new low for this year. Coupled with extremely poor directional measures on both the country and federal government, one could argue that Mr. Harper may be poised for further decline. The prime minister now finds himself in a cluttered three-way tie, stuck ten points below his majority achievement in 2011 — a trend that took hold even as Mr. Harper and the Conservatives dominated the pre-campaign communication race.

Justin Trudeau’s approval numbers remain high and comparable to those of Mulcair — which suggests that the Liberal party’s stagnation is due to other factors. Whatever is holding the Liberals back, it doesn’t appear to be a personal rejection of Mr. Trudeau, who has seen a modest rise in his approval rating over the past few polls.

As for Tom Mulcair, his approval is actually down very slightly from last month. That suggests the NDP is being lifted up factors beyond Mr. Mulcair himself.

The critical question is whether these shifts represent a new normal or just ephemeral byproduct of the Alberta election. We believe that voters are becoming engaged in the pre-campaign now; their support is in motion and things are going to get even more interesting from here on out.

Frank Graves is founder and president of EKOS Polling.

Methodology:

This study was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are May 6-12, 2015. In total, a random sample of 2,177 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.