Finally, a third survey of PPP's home state of North Carolina, taken for an unidentified client, has Democrat Cal Cunningham beating Republican Sen. Thom Tillis 46-41. The last time PPP checked in here was all the way back in September, when Cunningham was in front by a smaller 45-43 margin. Full crosstabs of this latest poll were not released, but the firm tells us the survey sampled 911 registered voters and was conducted Feb. 25-26, not long before Cunningham secured the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday.

If—and this is the biggest "if" of them all—Democrats can flip these three seats, along with Colorado, where all polling shows Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in deep manure, then they could retake the Senate even if Doug Jones loses his bid for re-election in Alabama so long as they regain the White House and a Democratic vice president can break ties. But as always, never rely on just a single poll to form your opinion of a race.

Senate

● MS-Sen: A new poll from Mason-Dixon finds Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith leading Democrat Mike Espy, her 2018 opponent, by a 53-43 margin. Margin-wise, that's similar to the only other public survey of the race, a January poll from Chism Strategies, but that poll had Hyde-Smith up 44-36 with a huge 20% undecided.

● OK-Sen: Republican Jim Inhofe, the longest-serving senator in Oklahoma history, announced on Thursday that he'll seek a fifth full term this year. Inhofe, who is 85, was the last Senate incumbent to confirm his plans for 2020. He faces no serious opposition in the June primary or in the November general election.

● TX-Sen: Following her first-place finish in Tuesday's primary, EMILY's List has endorsed Air Force veteran MJ Hegar ahead of her May 26 runoff against state Sen. Royce West. Hegar edged West 22-15 in the first round of voting.

House

● LA-05: State Rep. Lance Harris, a former GOP majority leader in the state House known for warring with Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, has kicked off a bid for Louisiana's open 5th Congressional District. Harris is the first Republican to join the race since Rep. Ralph Abraham announced his retirement, though Ouachita Parish Police Juror Scotty Robinson has been running since last year.

● MI-03: Even though independent Rep. Justin Amash said last year that he'd seek re-election to the House, he did not rule out a bid for president on the Libertarian Party ticket, and on Wednesday, he told CNN's Manu Raju that he was still considering the possibility. Amash claims he'd only make the leap if there were a path to victory, so either he'll stay put or delude himself in the extreme. Michigan's deadline for independents to file for the November ballot is not until July 16, but the Libertarians will select their presidential nominee at a convention in late May.

● NJ-03: In an upset, businessman David Richter has secured the backing of the Ocean County Republican Party, which will give him favorable placement on the county's ballots in the June primary. The Ocean GOP's screening committee had earlier recommended the party support Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs, but Richter narrowly won a vote before the full organization. Gibbs previously won the endorsement of the Republican Party in her home county, which makes up 57% of the population of the 3rd District, with the balance in Ocean. However, because Ocean is the more Republican of the two counties, it contained 55% of the district’s 2016 Trump voters.

● NY-27: Republican state Sen. Chris Jacobs has started airing his first TV ad ahead of the April 28 special election, and he's immediately deploying the GOP's very favorite line of attack: racist fearmongering over immigration. "They illegally stream across the border," the narrator warns as washed-out footage of amorphous crowds rolls, followed by footage of two men with backpacks scaling a border wall. "Instead of stopping them, Nate McMurray wants to reward them with amnesty."

The ad goes on to say that Jacobs "thinks that's nuts," saying he'll "punish sanctuary cities and hold them accountable" and will "help President Trump to finish building the wall." That's pretty amusing, considering that, as we just noted, the ad features a clip of determined young men climbing a border barrier in just seconds. While that particular wall is apparently an older model of fencing, even Trump's preferred version is still readily assailable—when it hasn't already been toppled, Big Bad Wolf-style.

It’s notable that Jacobs even feels the need to attack McMurray, since this district backed Trump by a 60-35 margin in 2016. However, McMurray only narrowly lost to indicted Rep. Chris Collins in 2018 before the congressman ultimately pleaded guilty and resigned, and the April 28 special election will coincide with the Democratic presidential primary. It’s possible that Jacobs going after his opponent right out of the gate is a sign that he’s worried this district won’t revert to typical GOP dominance next month.

● PA-17: Businessman Jesse Vodvarka, who'd looked like minor chum at best, has dropped out of the GOP primary in Pennsylvania's 17th District. That leaves Army veteran Sean Parnell as the only Republican running against Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb.

● TX-24, TX-03: Following the Texas primaries, also-rans are starting to offer their endorsements in the May 26 runoffs. In the 24th District, Jan McDowell, who was the Democrats' nominee in 2018 but finished third with just 10% on Tuesday, gave her backing to second-place candidate Candace Valenzuela over front-runner Kim Olson. Olson led the way with 41% while Valenzuela took 30%.

Meanwhile, in the 3rd District, third-place finisher Tanner Do endorsed Sean McCaffity, who faces a runoff against Lulu Seikaly. Seikaly edged McCaffity 44.5 to 43.8 during the first round of voting, while Tanner took 12%.

● Runoffs: Not only are we in downballot primary season, we're also in runoff season! Of the dozen or so states that hold primary runoffs, though, each operates a little bit differently, with quirks that determine whether in fact runoffs will even be held. North Carolina, which just conducted its primaries on Super Tuesday, is unique in that runoffs only take place if the runner-up specifically requests one. Check out our deep dive into this and other runoff election laws here.

Grab Bag

● Netroots Nation: The Daily Kos Elections team is once again planning to attend Netroots Nation, the annual conference for progressives, but we need your help to get there! We're involved with two panels this year. The first is our traditional elections Q&A, where we do nothing but take questions from the audience about their favorite races and help folks understand where best to deploy their efforts this fall.

The second is focused on the importance of electing Democratic secretaries of state across the country, since they're our front-line defenders of voting rights. We're asking that you click on the link for each panel vote for them so that organizers know folks would like to see them included. We hope you'll be able to join us in Denver this year, but if not, there's a good chance at least one of our panels will be livestreamed. Thank you for giving us a boost!