Before their families drowned, before the smugglers abandoned them in the choppy waters of the Mediterranean, before they drifted for three days with meager supplies of food and water, the migrants had gathered last week in the Libyan port city of Tobruk.

All had fled repressive regimes or war-scarred nations in Africa. All had paid $1,800 for a chance at a new life in Europe — via a perilous journey on rickety boats that would end in what could be one of the deadliest maritime disasters of the past year. Only 41 would survive.

But missing from the scores of passengers — as many as 200 by some estimates — were Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans, the most prominent faces of the biggest refugee crisis since World War II.

“There were Somalis, Eritreans, Egyptians and Sudanese,” Mowlid Isman, a 28-year-old survivor who fled Yemen, told reporters in the Greek capital on Thursday. “There were no Syrians, no Iraqis.”

Five days after the survivors were rescued at sea, authorities in several countries flanking the Mediterranean are seeking answers. The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees ­(UNHCR) and other agencies say that as many as 500 people may have drowned when a large smugglers boat sank somewhere between Libya and Italy. The boat by then included the passengers from Tobruk, who had been transferred from their smaller vessels.

On Thursday, national coast guards remained on the lookout for bodies washed ashore and pieces of the capsized ship.

[Despite outcry, migrants sent back over same waters they crossed]

A deal struck last month between the European Union and Turkey effectively closed down what had been the primary gateway into Europe for asylum seekers from the Middle East: the short voyage across the Aegean Sea to Greece. Since then, fears have risen that the pact would push those migrants aiming for Greece to take the far riskier route to Europe via Italy, which often involves a dangerous trek first into lawless Libya and a crossing over a wider stretch of sea known for having a higher death rate.

But thus far, aid groups and officials say, those fears have not become reality.

Although some Italian officials have portrayed it as such, last week’s horrific shipwreck does not yet appear to signal a new and sudden surge of migrant traffic into Italy. And as of now, there is no indication that more Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans are suddenly voyaging to Italy — although that, U.N. officials say, may change.

“The question is whether there has been a switch in routes because of the Turkey-E.U. deal, and so far the answer is no,” said Barbara Molinario, a UNHCR spokeswoman in Italy.

There was a big spike in arrivals in Italy in March — before the E.U.-Turkey deal was implemented. But officials cited better weather and other factors unrelated to the agreement. And in April, after the E.U.-Turkey agreement took effect, migrant traffic into Italy actually decreased. Overall, migrant arrivals to Italy from Jan. 1 to April 20 were marginally lower than in the same period in 2015 — roughly 25,000 now compared with about 26,000 then, according to the UNHCR.

“We think that weather probably has the main impact on the numbers arriving to Italy via Libya,” said Joel Millman, a spokesman for the International Organization for Migration. “At this point, it’s not fair to say it’s a substitute [route], but it could be in the future.”

Compared with the months before the E.U.-Turkey deal, there has been no significant change in the mix of migrants — mostly from Africa — entering Italy. Nevertheless, the country has been a key destination in the past for asylum seekers from the Middle East. In 2014, tens of thousands of Syrians arrived on Italian shores from Libya, their numbers significantly dwindling last year as many crossed from Turkey to Greece. In fact, about 90 percent of those who entered Europe through Greece were asylum seekers from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Pope Francis tours front lines of migrant crisis]

On Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Turkey that the numbers of migrants crossing the ­Aegean Sea to Europe are “significantly down” and that international coordination helped bring those figures down. But he urged authorities not to abandon efforts prematurely as human smugglers can easily change routes and tactics, including trying to bypass NATO patrols and other measures on the routes between Turkey and Greece.

There are some signs of a possible shift in migration routes in the coming months. Last month, Egyptian authorities detained 85 Syrians — including 31 children and 24 women — who crossed illegally from Sudan to join relatives already in Egypt, according to UNHCR officials, Egyptian police sources and Syrian activists. The Syrian refugees were recently released from detention centers along the border, said Yehia Khelidy, a UNHCR spokesman in Egypt.

Other officials working with migrants and refugees in North Africa said they were preparing for more Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans to pass through Sudan and travel to ports in Egypt and Libya to connect with smugglers.

In the Tunisian town of Zarzis, several bodies of people attempting to cross to Italy from Libya washed ashore earlier this month, said Mongi Slim, the head of the Tunisian Red Crescent in southern Tunisia. The dead were all from sub-Saharan Africa, but also included “a white person,” who he said may have been from the Arab world.

“We are expecting more people to come from Syria, Iraq, even Afghanistan,” Slim said. “Sudan could become the new gateway to Libya, and then Europe.”

For now, however, the boats to Italy are carrying Africa’s impoverished and oppressed. People like Muaz Mahmud, 25, who fled Ethiopia with his wife and 2-month-old baby and boarded one of several small boats in Tobruk last week crammed with other families like them.

After a few hours at sea, during the early morning, the boats approached a ship, already overcrowded with several hundred passengers, Mahmud said. The smugglers ordered him and his family to transfer to the ship, along with the rest of the migrants. But the ship soon began taking on water, presumably from the extra weight of scores of new people. Panicked passengers jumped into the water to swim back to the smaller boats.

But most couldn’t swim.

“The boat was going down, down in the water,” Mahmud said. “The people died in minutes. We swam to save our lives.”

In the chaos, Mahmud lost sight of his wife and baby. When he reached one of the smaller boats, it was clear he would never see them again.

“My wife and child died,” he said.

Those onboard threw him a rope and saved him and around 10 others. But when the survivors begged the smuggler driving the boat to rescue more people struggling in the sea, he refused. “We have to save these people,” Mahmud recalled pleading with the smuggler. “He take knife and said “I will kill you. We can’t stand here.’”

The survivors included 37 men, three women and a 3-year-old child. They were all now in one boat. But an hour later the smuggler stopped the boat, saying the motor didn’t work. They were drifting. At some point, another smuggler’s boat arrived, but it was there to pick up the driver of Mahmud’s vessel. The driver assured the survivors that he would go for help and headed back to Libya, Mahmud said. Before he left, he tossed them a satellite phone which they later used to call the Italian coast guard, Mahmud added.

They never saw the smuggler again.

“We were all crying,” Mahmud said.

For three days they drifted on the sea, sustaining themselves on “junk food” and a small amount of water, Mahmud said. They were finally spotted and rescued by a Filipino merchant ship and taken to the port city of Kalamata in Greece.

Today, their futures remain uncertain. The Greek authorities have given them one-month residence permits, but it is unclear whether they will receive asylum.

“We told them, “Please help us,’ ” Mahmud said. “We don’t know where we will go.”

Raghavan reported from Athens and Tunisia, Faiola from Berlin. Heba Habib in Cairo contributed to this report.

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Today's coverage from Post correspondents around the world