WHY is Russia sending warships towards Australia in a needless act of belligerence?

We can sum that up in two really simple concise phrases. Firstly, Vladimir Putin is pissed off. And secondly, he’s showing off.

First things first. The primary reason President Putin is angry with Australia right now is Tony Abbott’s tough talk over the doomed flight MH17.

“By sending the ships, Putin is signalling that he doesn’t like being told he’s going to be shirtfronted,” says Dr Matthew Sussex, a Russian foreign policy expert who’s head of politics and international relations at the University of Tasmania.

Putin is also irritated because he sees Australia as a direct threat to Russia’s economic ambitions. Russia, like Australia, has loads of gas. Russia, like Australia, has plenty of land for agriculture.

“We’re economic competitors. We are both competing for China in terms of energy and the global wheat trade,” Dr Sussex explains.

“In Putin’s mind, the Australia/Russia relationship is a rubbish relationship,” Dr Sussex continues. “They’re 33rd in our list of trading partners.”

To put that in perspective, Australia is about as important to Russia (and vice versa) as Belgium, a tiny European nation whose best known export is chocolate seashells. Vladimir Putin neither needs nor wants our affections.

But he does need China’s, which is why Xi Jinping was by his side at the Winter Olympic Opening Ceremony in Russia this February. For the record, Tony Abbott didn’t even make it to the Games.

So there’s your angry side of the equation. The ships, quite simply, are an up-yours to Australia.

But as stated, there’s a second prong to Putin’s naval posturing, which is about showing off. On that front, foreign analysts usually argue that Putin tries to project an “I’m so tough” message to the world.

In truth, he’s probably more interested in what folks back home think.

“You can’t understand Putin without the cult of personality that he’s developed at home,” Dr Sussex says.

“His macho posturing is strategic diplomacy, but the way in which it’s done is for domestic audiences. It creates an image of Putin as strongman, a person who won’t be pushed around. There’s no real difference between Putin the statesman and Putin’s personal life. He’s the embodiment of the new assertive Russia.”

When you spend time in Russia, as I did for six weeks this year, you get the strong sense that Putin is feared but respected. Russians don’t necessarily trust or even like Putin. Yet they’re comforted by his cool body language, his calm projection of power.

Remember, the Russian psyche took a huge hit with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, when up to 15 small and large republics broke off from Russia. Putin’s annexation of Crimea this year (secured through a referendum which most international observers declared dodgy), and his crushing victory in a brief war with Georgia in 2008, were symbolic glimpses of the glory days.

Putin’s anti-gay law was another move which played well among Russians this year. It infuriated people around the world, but Putin didn’t care what they thought, and neither did most Russians.

The EU has imposed sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine, but they have barely hurt average Russians at all. And so Putin just keeps marching on.

“Putin is immensely popular and has taken the entire centre ground,” Dr Sussex says. “There used to be a liberal intelligentsia in Russia but there’s not really one anymore because he controls the media.

“If you’re a blogger in Russia and you have 3000 subscribers, you’re officially a media organisation and the minute you say something about public officials, it’s potentially punishable by imprisonment.”

With his warmongering, his secrecy and his control of information, Putin is in many ways an old school dictator dressed up as a modern politician.

But Putin is many ways smarter and cooler than your average dictator. Unleashing the navy this week might have appeared hot-headed. In truth, like so much this former KGB operative does, it was cool, calculated move.

The first purpose of the move was to court the affections of his own people. The second also to annoy Australia, a country he doesn’t like at all.

The 40 degree weather forecast for Brisbane on Sunday won’t do much to change that.