Warner Bros.

The Oscar nominees for Best Sound Mixing are decided strictly by the sound branch of the motion picture academy, but the winners are chosen by the academy membership at large, which is why voters often go for the film with the most conspicuous use of sound. That’s good news for “A Star is Born” since musicals draw attention to their audio. But it faces a tough race against the immersive sensory experience of “First Man.”

As of this writing “First Man” is the front-runner to win Sound Mixing with 18/5 odds for recreating Neil Armstrong‘s experience of flying to the moon and back, but “A Star is Born” is close behind with 37/10 odds. In fact, according to the Expert journalists we’ve polled from top media outlets, it’s pretty much a toss-up between “First Man” and “A Star is Born,” and the good news for “Star” is that if there’s one thing you can count on at the Oscars, it’s winning an Oscar for the sound of music … usually.

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In the 21st century so far five movies driven by their music have won Best Sound Mixing: “Chicago” (2002), “Ray” (2004), “Dreamgirls” (2006), “Les Miserables” (2012) and “Whiplash” (2014). You could even count “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), which was famous for its original score by A.R. Rahman and its closing “Jai Ho” dance number. Musicals are especially likely to win Sound Mixing if they have broad overall support from the academy, which we’re currently predicting “A Star is Born” will have.

But “La La Land” (2016) showed that musicals can still be vulnerable, even when they’re Best Picture favorites. When nominations were announced it tied the all-time record with 14 bids and was the overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture, so it seemed like a shoo-in for Best Sound Mixing. However, it lost that category to the war film “Hacksaw Ridge,” which is another genre the Oscars typically favor in sound categories.

Despite that recent shocker, six of our Experts are currently backing a musica to get its revenge this time around: Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Radio.com), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire) and Brian Truitt (USA Today) all say “A Star is Born” will prevail. Are they right, or will the more action-packed “First Man” take one giant leap towards the Oscar stage next February?

Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.