A worker on a an oil drill near New Town, North Dakota. Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The U.S. might have been left out from the big summit between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Vienna last week but the country's influence over global oil markets is only going to get stronger, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest report. "While the U.S. was not present in Vienna, nobody could ignore its growing influence," the IEA said in its December report, published Thursday. "Last week's meeting reminded us that the Big Three of oil – Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States – whose total liquids production now comprises about 40 percent of the global total, are the dominant

players," the IEA said. When OPEC and non-OPEC producers met last week in Vienna to hammer out a deal to cut their oil production there was an uninvited, but unavoidable, presence at the summit: The U.S. President Trump has repeatedly criticized OPEC for its dominance over oil prices, at times asking (usually via Twitter) it to produce more oil and then telling the cartel to leave its production well alone. Iran joked last week that the U.S. wanted to join OPEC as it appeared keen to influence the meeting's outcome. The U.S. has become a dominant competitor in oil markets in its own right, however, and has taken a place among the world's largest oil producers, thanks to its shale oil revolution.

Non-playing member

On the day OPEC ministers sat down to talk in Vienna last Thursday, the IEA noted that an important piece of data was published, noting that "according to the (U.S.) Energy Information Administration, in the week to 30 November the U.S. was a net exporter of crude and products for the first time since at least 1991." In 2018 to date, U.S. net imports have averaged 3.1 million barrels a day (mb/d). Ten years ago, just ahead of the shale revolution, the figure was 11.1 mb/d., the IEA said. "As production grows inexorably, so will net imports decline and rising U.S. exports will provide competition in many markets, including to some of the countries meeting in Vienna last week." The IEA noted that while cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia is now "the basis of production management" with these two countries having a large capacity to swing output one way or the other, the U.S. is the third, "non-playing member" of what it called the Big Three. "The United States … is now the world's biggest crude oil producer …(it) is also the world's biggest consumer and lower prices are welcome, although its producers will want to see them stay high enough to encourage further investment."

Time will tell