Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated nine years ago. With his killers’ trial finally underway, will Hariri’s dream of an independently controlled Lebanon finally be realized?

Former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was well loved by many Lebanese. He envisioned the establishment of a truly independent Lebanese government without the intrusion of Iran or Syria. He was candid about his desire to remove Syrian interference from within the government; he also called for the ouster of Syrian forces, which had been occupying the country since 1976.

Then, he was murdered.

In the months following his assassination in February 2005, mass protests broke out in Lebanon. That, as well as severe international pressure, led Syrian forces to vacate Lebanon and the pro-Syrian element within the government to disband. This achieved two of the goals of what has come to be known as the Cedar Revolution.

However, achieving the final goal of the Cedar Revolution only started on January 16 this year: the trial of the killers of the former prime minister.

After years of tracking and intelligence gathering, the United Nations-backed tribunal over the slaying of 22 Lebanese civilians began at The Hague in the Netherlands. On trial are five Hezbollah terrorists.

While no one doubts that Shiite Hezbollah, as directed and funded by Iran and Syria, both then and now, is responsible for the slayings, some see the timing of the eventual verdict in the next few months as the tipping point toward a full-scale civil war in Lebanon.

The Cedar Revolution and Hezbollah’s Rise

In the aftermath of the Cedar Revolution in 2005, the world rejoiced in the hope that Lebanese democracy would bring about Lebanese autonomy. At the time, however, theTrumpet.com wrote, “The bottom line is, supporting democracy in Lebanon means accepting the probability of Hezbollah’s rise.”

And rise it did.

Hezbollah—in Arabic, Party of God—entrenched itself through popular public vote within the Lebanese government, allying itself with secular/Christian parties forming the March 8 coalition.

The March 8 coalition grew in popularity over the following years. Hezbollah maintained its terrorist status in the eyes of the West, yet within Lebanon’s general public it was considered the necessary protector of its southern flank from Israeli aggression.

Furthermore, Hezbollah started to fund schools, hospitals, clinics and other social programs, leading to a widespread Lebanese acceptance of the organization, even among many who didn’t agree with its policies. As long as Hezbollah was looking after the Lebanese, the public could accept it.

The March 8 coalition grew in power to the point that it formed the majority in the Lebanese parliament between 2011 and March 2013.

Hezbollah Breaks Lebanon’s Neutrality

In 2012, reports started to surface that Hezbollah was being drawn into the Syrian conflict to support the government of President Bashar Assad, Iran’s ally. At first, Hezbollah denied it was fighting in Syria, realizing that its legitimacy as a protector of Lebanese interests was threatened.

If it could be proven that Hezbollah was fighting in Syria, it would indicate to the Lebanese public that Hezbollah put Iran’s desires above those of Lebanon.

Opposition politicians started to call Hezbollah out for betraying Lebanon’s policy of neutrality concerning the conflict with Syria. “Hezbollah is fighting inside Syria with orders from Iran,” stated MP Walit Jambat on Feb. 24, 2013.

Then, on May 25 last year, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah finally openly admitted that Hezbollah was fighting in Syria, pledging that his group would “not allow Syrian militants to control areas that border Lebanon.” The idea that Hezbollah was trying to protect Lebanon’s interests sounded good, but the Lebanese did not buy it.

Since that speech nine months ago, violence has spilled over Lebanon’s northeast border from Syria. Rebel groups fighting against Syria’s Assad have actually warned Sunnis from going into Hezbollah-controlled areas in Lebanon.

Since July last year, eight separate bombs (five of them suicide bombers) have exploded in Shiite areas of Lebanon including one targeting the Iranian Embassy that killed 20 people.

On February 2, Jabhat al-Nusra, an affiliate of al Qaeda, stated, “Iran’s party [Hezbollah] and all its bases and bastions are legitimate targets for us, wherever they are.”

One might think Hezbollah would refocus its energies to protect its home turf in Lebanon, but just the opposite has occurred. “We will continue our work and remain in the field committed to our political stances,” announced Hezbollah’s number two Sheikh Naim Qassem on February 9. He continued, “We will remain fighting where we are fighting.”

The Lebanese People Are Angry

Hezbollah’s decision to stay entrenched in Syria is deeply wounding its credibility at home. And as the situation in Lebanon deteriorates, the blame is shifting to Hezbollah.

Consider the following:

Officially 900,000 Syrian refugees have flooded over the border into Lebanon, whose normal population is around 4 million. That’s well over a 20 percent increase in the population—and they are coming at a rate of 50,000 per month. So far the Lebanese civilians have not gotten too upset about this. But with unemployment estimated to rise to 20 percent by the end of 2014, their patience probably won’t last much longer.

Half a million Palestinian refugees are stuck in Lebanon’s refugee camps, unhappy with their current status. In a piece from Counter Punch, titled, “A Palestinian-Hezbollah War in Lebanon,” Franklin Lamb writes from the refugee camp in Lebanon: “The egging on the Palestinian and Hezbollah to confront each other has increased over the past three months in Lebanon’s camps and particularly from some of the local Sunni and Christian power centers.” Additionally, one of the suicide bombers responsible for the attack on the Iranian Embassy was a Palestinian.

There are Hezbollah supporters in southern Beirut starting to wonder where their protection is as attacks against them have increased. The Daily Star in Lebanon describes, “The streets have emptied and businesses are suffering with outsiders afraid to visit the area to take advantage of cheaper prices. Residents are looking to sell their properties and move out ….” One resident complained, “Our patience is running out and we are demanding Hezbollah to do something. We cannot continue to live like this.”

Finally, consider that for the past 10 months Lebanon has not had a functioning government. Much of the blame for the delay in the forming of a government is being directed toward Hezbollah.

Other political parties have made huge concessions in order to create a government. The greatest of these is the Future Movement, whose leader, Saad Hariri (the son of the assassinated Rafik Hariri), agreed to be part of a unity government with his enemy Hezbollah based on a rotation of portfolios of key government departments, where no political party would hold a single ministry indefinitely. All parties agreed, but then Hezbollah led one of its allies to back out of the process because Hezbollah would not have received the defense portfolio.

Frustrated with Hezbollah’s political belligerence, Future Bloc MP Ahmad Fatfat claimed on February 7, “We have given all that we can [to form a government], unless what is asked us to surrender. There are three options confronting Hezbollah: surrender, military confrontation, or political confrontation.” He vowed to press on politically as he knows the military resort would be devastating to Lebanon. While a cabinet finally looks to be coming together, soon-coming elections will once again throw the country into disarray.

All these factors are creating a huge shift in Lebanese public opinion of Hezbollah. And yet, Hezbollah still refuses to leave Syria—an indication of the power of Iran’s sway.

In refusing to put Lebanon before Iranian will, Hezbollah has exposed itself as a stooge before the Lebanese public. While this fact might be obvious for an armchair observer to accept, it’s a little more difficult for the Lebanese man whose family has been receiving subsidized healthcare and an education for his children from Hezbollah for years.

But now that Hezbollah’s loyalty is clear to all, the Lebanese people are angry! And a revolt is brewing.

Now consider: It is in this climate, a full nine years later, that five Hezbollah men stand to be convicted of the bloody murder of 22 Lebanese civilians—including a former prime minister who believed in a Lebanon separated from the conflicts raging elsewhere in the Middle East, a leader who could have saved them from being sucked into the Syrian civil war.

As Allan Topol writes in the Huffington Post, “Sectarian conflict, fueled by the Syrian civil war, has converted Lebanon into a powder keg. Now a bizarre trial threatens to provide the sparks to blow it sky high.”

He continues, “Testimony in the Netherlands implicating Hezbollah is likely to provoke a deadly response in Lebanon; convictions will lead to even more violence against Sunnis. They will in turn responds by attacking Shiite neighborhoods. A full-scale civil war reminiscent of the one waged decades ago could reoccur.”

A Bloody Cedar Revolution Approaches

The death of Hariri means almost as much today as it did nine years ago. His assassination was the event that thrust Lebanon into its first Cedar Revolution to rid the nation of Syrian influence.

In reality though, the exit of Syrian troops and the pro-Syrian government did nothing to bring about an independent Lebanon. Instead, the Shiite terrorist group Hezbollah filled the Syrian void and became the tool of choice for maintaining Iranian influence in the country.

Now with his tribunal underway, could the final verdict be the catalyst to a second Cedar Revolution? Might this spark an uprising that vows to remove Iranian influence form Lebanon, this time by removing its proxy Hezbollah? It certainly looks that way.

The big difference this time around is that Hezbollah fighters are not Syrian. They are Lebanese. They have nowhere to retreat to, but would have to put up a fight. And with Hezbollah’s military arsenal larger than some countries, the war would be devastating to Lebanon.

Trumpet editor and chief Gerald Flurry recently announced on a Key of David program, “There’s going to be now a civil war, a bloody civil war in Lebanon for control of Lebanon.” To see more of his analysis of the situation, watch the full video.

The Call for Europe

While Hezbollah fighters would likely defeat any type of Lebanese uprising themselves, foreign powers such as the Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia and European nations such as France and Italy—which are all eager to see Hezbollah removed from its post in Lebanon—are throwing their support behind Lebanon’s army.

As previously reported, a $3 billion arms gift for Lebanon was recently brokered by France and Saudi Arabia. This deal is moving along faster than anticipated; several meetings have already taken place between Lebanese army officials, Saudi Arabia and France. On February 7, French President François Hollande promised Lebanese President Michel Suleiman to “equip the Lebanese Army with the weapons it requests under the Saudi donation as soon as possible.”

No doubt both Saudi Arabia and the European leaders see Hezbollah’s preoccupation in Syria as a golden opportunity to strengthen their own position in Lebanon. Even many leaders in Lebanon are calling upon other nations to do more than just supply weapons to the Lebanese army: They are asking for direct foreign intervention. The Future parliamentary bloc, for example, made this statement on February 7: “The only realistic solution would be for the Lebanese Army, backed by UN peacekeepers, to deploy along the border with Syria to control the borders in all directions and [prevent] any violations, regardless from which side” (emphasis added).

The call for UN peacekeepers is significant, as typically it is mostly French soldiers that fill UN missions in Lebanon. Also, lurking in the Mediterranean off the coast of Lebanon is a German observer mission that was re-approved in January this year, and could easily decide to step onto dry land to make peace given its recent change in defense policy.

The possibility of European fighters protecting Lebanon against Iran’s proxies should have prophetic alarm bells ringing in the ears ofTrumpet readers.

It aligns perfectly with the alliance discussed in Psalm 83 of the “moderate Arab” states and a German-led Europe. In the Key of David program mentioned above, Mr. Flurry said, “[I]t is through this European intrusion into the Middle East that is going to cause Iran to push at the king of the north, and when they do, the north is going to come against them like a whirlwind.”

It is time to really sit up and watch prophetic events be fulfilled, and start checking them off as Christ’s prophetic to-do list becomes shorter and shorter. No doubt, Jesus Christ is doing the same thing.

Watch Lebanon continue to simmer toward civil war, in light of the trial of the former prime minister’s killers.

Hariri’s dream of an independent Lebanon free from outside influences will not be realized. Instead, the country he loved will be the battleground of huge power blocs from now till the return of Christ.

When that occurs, the new foreign powers influencing Lebanon won’t be there because of self-interest, like those now. Instead, finally, the righteous rulership of God will care for the good and welfare of all Lebanese.