INDIA TOUR OF SOUTH AFRICA

The unpredictability factor of Newlands

by Tristan Holme • Last updated on

"Obviously there's a little bit of grass there but I don't think it's going to scare anyone" - Philander © Getty

For the better part of a generation, an old wives' tale persisted at Kingsmead. It said that the tendency for wickets to fall in clusters was related to the tide chart. When the tide came in, the rising water level below the Kingsmead pitch brought moisture and life to the surface, and the bowlers took hold of the game. Within an hour or two, the tide would fall sufficiently for the moisture to drain out and the batsmen would settle in once more.

This marvellous piece of pseudoscience made it all the way onto the back page of the local newspaper in 2009, where a correspondent dutifully listed the tide times ahead of a Test against Australia. The wickets did indeed tumble in that match, but their frequency owed more to the timing of Mitchell Johnson's spells than any other force of nature.

The story is useful because it tells of our need to recognise some sort of understandable pattern in cases where little actually exists. And contemplating the expected behaviour of the Newlands pitch in the first Test between South Africa and India could be seen as just such a case.

Since January 2008, when Evan Flint took over as head groundsman at Newlands, teams have been bowled out for 96, 47, 45 and 110. They have also racked up 651, 447 for seven declared, 580 for four declared, 494 for seven declared and, in a single match, 629 for six declared and 627 for seven declared. That might suggest an absence of recognisable pattern but there are a few lessons that can be taken forward into the Test that starts on Friday (January 5).

The first is that the Newlands surface should not necessarily be taken at face value. On Wednesday the pitch was a darker shade of green, and was covered up around lunch time as Flint looked to prevent it from drying out too quickly on a hot afternoon. But while much has been made of the pitch's appearance, Vernon Philander was not about to hype it up.

"I have played all my life here. I've seen a lot of similar wickets and they haven't done much. Obviously there's a little bit of grass there but I don't think it's going to scare anyone," he said.

One of the patterns has been that South Africa's seamers have been able to roll over weak opponents when conditions have provided assistance - as they did to New Zealand five years ago (45 all out) and Sri Lanka last year (110). India are unlikely to fold so easily.

But another one is that conditions can change quickly. While the prevailing wind comes from the South-East and brings dry, sunny weather in which the pitch can flatten out quite quickly, the North-Wester is what brings rain-bearing cold fronts into Cape Town. Newlands has the highest average rainfall in the city because it lies in the South-Eastern shadow of Table Mountain. The North-Wester blows moist air in off the sea and Table Mountain forces it to rise and condense into rain, which then falls in the Newlands area. When the wind is not quite strong enough to create rain, the clouds sit over the mountain, the air at Newlands is humid and the ball moves.

As with many grounds in England, captains often look up rather than down when they are working out what to do at the toss. "You might get days where there is grass but it's absolutely flat," said Philander. "You get some days when the North-Wester blows and the ball goes around the park even though there's not much grass on the pitch."

While batsmen have had some shockers at Newlands in the past decade, they have also had more success than at any other South African ground - of the top 11 individual scores in the country during that period, eight were scored at Newlands. It has also played host to all three of South Africa's highest scoring Tests in terms of runs per wicket, with the 2016 run-fest between South Africa and England topping the list.

Two factors are likely to ensure that this week's Test does not threaten those records. The first is that the administrators wanted the New Year's Test against England to last five days in order to maximise on revenue. But the priority against India is to produce a surface on which South Africa have the best chance of winning

The second factor is the weather. While Friday is forecast to be pleasant and sunny, cloud is forecast for Saturday as the North-Wester kicks in to bring rain on Sunday morning. Flint's pitches have been criticised in the past for failing to deteriorate sufficiently, but drizzle on the third morning could freshen conditions up at just the point when the Newlands pitch has a tendency to flatten out.

© Cricbuzz

TAGS

RELATED STORIES