Tim Hudak and Andrea Horwath surely must rub their hands in glee as they look across the aisle at Queen’s Park and eye the Liberal cabinet ministers being touted as possible replacements for Dalton McGuinty as party leader.

The reason the Conservative and NDP leaders are so happy is because they feel they could easily beat the Liberals if a current McGuinty minister leads the party into the next election.

It’s easy to understand their thinking.

Even before the election, the pair will hammer the Liberals as an ineffective government burdened by a bitter wage-freeze fight with teacher unions and by scandals ranging from eHealth to ORNGE air ambulance and the costly political decision to cancel two power stations in Mississauga and Oakville.

And if the next Liberal leader is a current minister, Hudak and Horwath will smear them as being part of the team responsible for the mess the government is now in.

That applies equally to cabinet ministers Dwight Duncan, Deb Matthews, Kathleen Wynne, Chris Bentley, Laurel Broten, Glen Murray and Eric Hoskins.

All are possible candidates. All would be easy targets, even if they weren’t directly involved in the scandals.

That’s why the Liberals might be smart to take a serious look outside the cabinet for a new leader, one who isn’t tainted by the current scandals.

It could be a wise move because although the Liberals are trailing in the polls, there’s the possibility that having chosen the right leader the Liberals could come up the middle and squeak out a win in the next election.

It’s a scenario that’s not unrealistic, especially given that Hudak now is moving the Tories further to the far right with his “common sense” talk of Harris-like cutbacks and lower taxes and given that Horwath and the NDP are relying extremely heavily on out-of-favour public service unions for support.

Among the possible outsiders are former cabinet ministers Gerard Kennedy, George Smitherman, Michael Bryant, Sandra Pupatello and John Wilkinson.

Neither Smitherman, who is linked to the eHealth fiasco, nor Bryant, who was involved in a fatal cyclist-car encounter and has admitted having had a drinking problem, are expected to run.

Pupatello, a former economic development minister, opted not to run in the last election. Wilkinson, a former environment minister, was defeated in his Stratford-area riding in the last election.

Although both are no longer in cabinet, both could still be linked to the scandals, which surfaced while they were in office.

Kennedy, however, would be a serious contender for McGuinty’s job.

He’s scandal-free, having been away from Queen’s Park since 2006. He’s charismatic, earned a good reputation as McGuinty’s first education minister, is identified as being on the progressive wing of the party, speaks French, is media savvy and has experience on Parliament Hill as an MP.

If Kennedy runs, it would be the second time he has sought the provincial leadership. In 1996, he finished second to McGuinty on the fifth ballot, after leading on the first four.

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In 2006, he resigned as Ontario’s education minister to run for the federal Liberal leadership, finishing fourth and ultimately withdrawing to support Stéphane Dion.

In the 2011 federal election, Kennedy lost his Parkdale-High Park seat to Peggy Nash of the NDP. He now operates his own company, Enterprising For The Public Good, which advises private companies and non-profit groups.

While Kennedy has many supporters, he also has detractors both at Queen’s Park and in Ottawa who brand him as a loner, not a team player and as a media hound. Others dismiss him as a multi-time loser, pointing to his two failed leadership bids and his loss in the 2011 federal election.

Also, it could be difficult for Kennedy to organize a serious campaign because most of the key people he might have relied on are already working on Justin Trudeau’s federal leadership team. Still, within hours of McGuinty announcing his resignation, Kennedy loyalists were working the phones, testing the support for their man.

In coming days, Kennedy will decide if he’s finished with elected politics or whether to make a last grab for party leadership.

Over the same time, Ontario Liberals should reflect on where the party stands with voters and consider whether they are in danger of finishing third in the next election, as happened to their federal cousins.

In the end, Liberals may decide it’s better to pick a leader from the current cabinet ranks rather than taking a risk on an outsider, even one with long ties to the party.

Either way, it’s a high-stakes gamble — with the party’s future for years ahead on the line.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday.

bhepburn@thestar.ca

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