WATKINS GLEN, N.Y. -- AJ Allmendinger doesn't need a reminder that this weekend will likely determine whether he qualifies for the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

While he once flirted getting into the Chase on points -- he was 10th after five races and 20th after 12 -- Allmendinger has remained at 23rd in the standings for the last six weeks. He earned his first top-10 finish in 18 races last week when he placed seventh at Pocono.

But seventh-place finishes won't be enough to get him into the Chase, and he'll have to win his way in -- which he did last year when he captured the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen in an intense, thrilling battle with Marcos Ambrose.

That win not only gave Allmendinger a legitimate claim as the best road racer in the garage -- Ambrose had earned that but was flat-out beat by Allmendinger at The Glen in 2014 -- it was a day that capped an impressive down-and-out comeback with his first career victory. It also marked the first career Cup win for JTG Daugherty Racing.

Coming along with the victory could be more expectations to win than in the past, but Allmendinger, in his typical attitude, tried to avoid the feeling that his finish Sunday in defense of his 2014 performance at The Glen will determine his happiness.

"If we go out there and we perform at our best and we make all the right decisions, we will legitimately have a shot to win again," Allmendinger said. "That is all you can ask for. If you put yourself in that position and it happens then great. If not, then you move on. It's just a race."

Huh. Just a race. It's a race that can determine if his team has a great season or not. And crew chief Brian Burns knows it.

"I'm not going to lie, it is a stressful weekend for us because we all have the same expectations," Burns said. "We try not to talk about it and try to block it out so we can stay as calm as we can.

"We try to keep each other on an even level. We know that if we don't make mistakes and do the simple things right and have the absence of bad luck, we can win."

Allmendinger said despite the results the past few months, he believes this team overall is stronger than it was a year ago while the pressure remains the same. He even views the expectations as the same even though he is looked at as a favorite this year rather than a mere "contender." He qualified for the pole on Saturday

AJ Allmendinger celebrated with one of his team owners, Brad Daugherty, after last year's Chase-clinching win at Watkins Glen. Will they do it again? Tom Pennington/Getty Images

"It's no different than last year," Allmendinger said Friday. "The only difference is having the confidence that if it comes down to crunch time like that, I'm able to go out there and make it happen.

"All we can do is go out there and put our racecar on the racetrack this weekend. I feel confident."

Allmendinger won't have Ambrose to contend with, as Ambrose returned home to Australia, where he later removed himself from his full-time seat for Team Penske's V8 Supercar effort as he struggled in his return to a series where he was a two-time champion.

Ambrose's absence still doesn't mean Allmendinger enters the race Sunday as the odds-on favorite where he can just put the car on cruise control for the win. Kyle Busch, a solid road racer, has won four of the last six races and has two career Glen wins. Jeff Gordon has four career Cup wins at Watkins Glen, and the Stewart-Haas stable with Kevin Harvick (one win at The Glen), Kurt Busch (nine top-5s in 19 road-course starts) and Tony Stewart (five wins at The Glen) can't be counted out.

"I kind of laugh because everybody initially said 'Oh Marcos isn't here, this should be easy for you.' " Allmendinger said. "I'm like 'I'm not sure if you guys remember Jeff Gordon was leading when he broke.'

"There are a lot of great racecar drivers and you can't just single out one or two of them that are going to be tough. It makes it a lot of fun. I know I have to go out there and be on my A game to have a shot to win this thing."

Allmendinger will drive the car he won the pole with at Sonoma but then had a fuel pickup problem that ended his victory hopes.

"We just found some debris through the fuel filter and all that, and it started just clogging up the whole system," Allmendinger said. "It basically wasn't really getting a ton of fuel -- it was missing like it was running out of fuel. I'm confident that we got it fixed. I'm not sure why it happened.

"When you find something like that, it makes you really spend more attention to the detail and figuring out how to make sure it never happens again. It was disappointing. The race the way it played out, I think we at least had a shot to win. I think we've got it all taken care of."