Why? A common activist explanation is that we moved on from fur too soon. In the 1980s and 90s, the largest animal rights groups prioritized fur campaigns. But as activists like Henry Spira directed the movement toward the much larger number of animals raised for meat, the fur campaigns receded. Under this story, fur is a lesson in the importance of sticking with the fight.



Meanwhile, the industry credits its forceful pushback against anti-fur forces. The fur industry funded young designers to use fur, boosting its presence in London, Milan, New York, and Paris fashion weeks, where 73% of designers included fur in their fall 2015 collections. It pushed fur trim, as in Canada Goose jackets, and capitalized on the naturalistic fallacy to frame fur as a greener option than artificial faux fur.



But the data doesn’t fully support either story. Mink farming numbers rose rapidly through the 1980s, even as protests mounted, and fell mostly over just a few years, 1989-93, not associated with any special uptick in fur protests. They then rose rapidly through the 2000s, even as fur protests intensified.



Economic trends offer a more plausible explanation. Fur’s fall in 1989-93 coincided with both the fall of the Soviet Union, fur’s biggest producer, and a global financial crisis, which hurt demand. Fur’s resurgence since 2000 coincided with China’s admission to the World Trade Organization, which allowed China to quickly become the world’s largest exporter of fur, and fueled the prosperity that helped it later become the world’s biggest consumer of fur too. Fur’s recent decline coincided with an economic downturn in Russia and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign, which have hurt demand in fur’s two biggest markets.



But activist wins are likely playing an increasing role in suppressing demand. The fur industry seems especially concerned about the defection of top designers like Donatella Versace, who set the trends for the global fashion industry. Recent retail wins, like online retailer giant Yoox Net-a-Porter, affect even China, where Yoox has a partnership with Alibaba. Chinese industry reports described “a deep sense of gloom” at this year’s Beijing fur trade show.