The wave of sexual harassment allegations on Capitol Hill is already beginning to reshape the 2018 election landscape, crushing some campaigns under its pressure but providing breakthrough opportunities for others.

Sexual harassment-related scandals have already claimed four House members — Reps. John Conyers (D-Mich.), Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), Blake Farenthold (R-Texas) and Ruben Kihuen (D-Nev.), who announced Saturday he would not seek reelection after his own party leadership called for his resignation.


In Minnesota, the resignation of Democratic Sen. Al Franken has thrown a wrinkle into the 2018 Senate map — now, party strategists must contend with the prospect that his appointed successor, Tina Smith, will receive a competitive challenge when she attempts to win a full term.

Members of Congress aren’t the only ones being felled by new revelations. On Friday, a female candidate, Andrea Ramsey, quit her Democratic bid to challenge Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.) after news broke that her company settled a sexual harassment suit, even though she denies the allegations.

Yet the nation’s moment of reckoning on sexual harassment isn’t simply shaking up the upcoming midterm election by forcing candidates and incumbents out of races — it’s also altering the traditional terms of debate. In Florida, where Democrat Mary Barzee Flores is running in a crowded primary to replace retiring GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the former state circuit judge focused her first ad on the issue of sexual misconduct in the workplace.

“I’ve heard about other candidates who are speaking out and it wouldn’t surprise me if, more and more, women talk about this,” said Flores, whose ad pointed to a former manager who assaulted her. “We’re making it clear that we’re not just going to sweep this stuff under the rug.”

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In one competitive Northern Virginia race, the issue is center stage in part due to Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) who is leading the charge in Congress, along with Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.), to reform how sexual harassment cases are handled. On the Democratic side, Lindsey Davis Stover, a former Obama official running in a crowded primary field, filed a Freedom of Information Act request to “reveal the secret payouts authorized in congressional sexual misconduct” cases, according to a statement from her campaign.

What’s still unclear is how the spate of sexual harassment scandals might sway voters in 2018. Early public polling suggests Democratic voters are more likely to believe accusations of misconduct than Republicans. A Monmouth University poll released this week found that 37 percent of Republicans believe such reports about GOP legislators are accurate, while 63 percent of Democrats trust those reports about Democratic lawmakers.

“The struggle lies in the fact that [sexual harassment] is coming out in races across the country — in legislative bodies, in federal bodies and in both parties. Every time it happens, even in in some other state, it affects the mindset of voters,” said Luke Macias, a Republican consultant based in Texas.

Some GOP strategists’ worry their party’s response to various scandals could further hurt them among suburban voters and women, two blocs that they can’t afford to lose as they try to defend their 24-seat majority in the House.

“The loss of urban and suburban voters in 2016 plus sexual harassment scandals is probably not a good way to secure these moderate Republican and Independent voters long-term,” said Kevin Shuvalov, a Republican strategist based in Texas. “It’s an opening for Democrats to go get voters who aren’t naturally available to them.”

Republican pollster Robert Blizzard warned that “women voters, especially Independent women, are a key audience in the ‘18 election up and down the ticket across the country,” so to “be perceived as weak on this issue at your own peril.”

“Candidates are waiting to see what other allegations might surface and what opportunities arise as a result,” said Martha McKenna, a Democratic consultant. “We’ve seen how suburban women react to these charges which could put even more seats in play.”

Some strategists see the issue as a potential boon for challengers in both parties, since they can recast the cascade of resignations as another example of members of Congress “expecting special treatment,” said Molly Murphy, a Democratic consultant.

“It goes more to the idea that rules don’t apply to them,” Murphy said. “That’s effective.”

There is a widespread expectation among strategists in both parties that more allegations will surface. “I think it’s when, not if,” Blizzard said.

With prominent politicians in dozens of states — including Florida , Kentucky , Oregon , among others — publicly accused of groping, unwanted kissing and sexual harassment, the sweep of accusations inspired Dana Nessel, a Democratic candidate for attorney general in Michigan, to ask in a campaign video posted to Facebook: “Who can you trust most not to show you their penis in a professional setting? Is it the candidate who doesn’t have a penis? I’d say so.”

Not everyone appreciated the spot, which drew national attention. “There are some who don’t appreciate that someone for the first time ever said the word ‘penis’ in a political ad,” Nessel said, explaining that the video was intended to be tongue-in-cheek, and “to point out that my gender isn’t a liability, but an asset.”

Nessel’s video, which drew more than 170,000 views, may not be the last provocative attempt to talk about sexual harassment.

It’s lesson, said Murphy, is that the message can easily go viral, and “some candidates will look for that opportunity to catch fire.”