Gov. Phil Murphy again promised NJ Transit riders their fares would not rise this year, but the agency's financial hole is so deep, the governor may just be delaying the inevitable.

Without asking riders to pay more, Murphy has promised the struggling agency an extra $100 million in his proposed 2019 budget.

But those funds could disappear quickly.

In the last year, NJ Transit has hired more than 100 locomotive engineers and more than 300 bus operators. It has made $182 million in back payments to Amtrak for its use of the Northeast Corridor.

"Their payroll is going up," said David Peter Alan, chairman of the Lackawanna Coalition, a transit advocacy group. "They’re going to have to pay them."

Murphy's budget increases NJ Transit's funding for the second year in a row, but to get the revenue it needs to restore service and hire more personnel the agency may be forced to ask riders to pay more.

"You can’t keep absorbing costs in the system and have the riders not be a participant in it," said Tom Downs, who was NJ transportation commissioner from 1990 to 1993.

Murphy's budget plan increases NJ Transit funding to $405.7 million. That includes $25 million in new direct spending from the general fund, plus $75 million in diversions from other revenue sources that will be replaced.

Murphy pledged to avoid raising fares if lawmakers agree to the proposal.

"Last year, commuters didn’t shoulder a fare hike," Murphy said Wednesday at an NJ Transit maintenance shop in Wood-Ridge, "and if this proposed investment is passed by the Legislature, they won’t see one this year, either."

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Riders face reduced schedules

NJ Transit has been operating a reduced train schedule for the past nine months, owing in part to a shortage of locomotive engineers, and also to work on positive train control, a safety system Congress required in 2008.

There is currently no rail service to Atlantic City or Princeton, and reduced service on other lines. Though Executive Director Kevin Corbett said last week that the Atlantic City and Princeton trains wouldreturn May 24, riders on other lines are still waiting for an answer on when they'll see a full schedule.

Alan said he doesn't know how NJ Transit will accomplish that with Murphy's budget.

"It’s going to cost money to run what they’re supposed to run," he said. "I don’t know how they’re going to do it."

Murphy and lawmakers alike know that a fare increase would be highly unpopular among riders, who have endured chronically overcrowded, late and canceled trains. Fares went up twice under former Gov. Chris Christie, even as the agency deteriorated.

Downs, who was also president of Amtrak from 1993 to 1997, said riders are less resistant to fare increases if they know they're getting an improved system.

"It’s really hard to put fare increases into a sinking ship if there’s no coherent story for the riders," he said. "Unless you can put it in terms riders can understand, it won’t mean anything."

If Murphy and lawmakers can't reach an agreement, fares might have to go up anyway.

Murphy eventually walked back his promise last year to not increase fares as budget negotiations stalled and the state headed toward a shutdown. Ultimately, they struck a deal, and fares didn't rise.

This year, Murphy took a more careful approach, stating in his budget address in Trenton on Tuesday that avoiding a fare increase was his goal, but not an ironclad promise. And he made sure to throw the ball in lawmakers' court.

"I’m optimistic we’re going to have another year where commuters aren’t paying an increase in their fares," Murphy said Wednesday.

It may come down to whether Murphy and lawmakers can agree to pay for it. Murphy proposes to raise the marginal tax rate on those making $1 million or more a year, which would generate $447 million.

As with last year, top Senate and Assembly leaders in Murphy's own party are cool to the idea, preferring to roll back pension and health benefits for public workers.

Improvements: A long road ahead

Regardless of how Murphy and lawmakers come up with $100 million, or some other number, for NJ Transit, it could be months before riders see noticeable improvements.

NJ Transit's recently hired locomotive engineers are split into six training classes. The first class will graduate in May, with others to follow later this year and next.

Also, the agency is still working on meeting federal positive train control requirements. NJ Transit met a December deadline to get the safety system installed on its trains and tracks, but it won't be fully operational until the end of 2020.

Until then, riders are likely to continue to see reduced schedules and canceled trains.

Riders of other mass transit systems are paying more, or soon will.

New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority fares on subways, commuter trains and buses will go up on April 21. Boston's MBTA has proposed a fare increase this year for rail and bus.

In June 2017, Washington's Metro system increased rail and bus fares by 10 cents to 25 cents. Philadelphia's Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority raised fares on buses, subways and trolleys in July 2017.

Chicago is an exception: Metra rail commuters and Chicago Transit authority riders will not pay higher fares this year.

Downs said fare increases can decrease ridership. But transit systems consume a lot of capital, he said, and at some point, riders have to be willing to absorb part of the cost.

"Riders don’t have a lot of choices," Downs said. "It takes a lot of pain for them to leave."

Alan said if the Legislature doesn't come up with more funding for NJ Transit, that leaves only two choices: raise fares or cut service.

"I don’t like a fare increase any more than anyone else," he said. "I fear service cuts more than a fare increase."

Email: tatec@northjersey.com