Toronto is at a critical juncture when it comes to major decisions on public transit investment. But with investments that will cost billions and profoundly shape future patterns of urban development, we need to get it right.

One critical aspect of transit planning in the suburbs that is surprisingly overlooked is the potential for redevelopment and intensification in areas near proposed new transit stations. When this analysis is taken into consideration, it becomes clear that LRT along major east-west arterial roads make the most sense for Scarborough’s urban makeup.

Most debate on transit investments in the Toronto region has focused on the routes, ridership capacity and costs of different lines. These are important, but we argue that it is also essential to analyze existing patterns of development, land use, street networks, pedestrian access to transit stops, and development potential in the corridors to be served by rapid transit.

Building a high-capacity rapid transit line in an area with low or moderate intensity of land uses makes sense only if it’s possible to redevelop and intensify lands within walking distance of the transit stops. Even though new transit lines are likely to serve a much larger area, the major opportunity for redevelopment is within walking distance of new stations.

Taking a hard look at development potential is especially important in Toronto’s inner suburbs like Scarborough, which were carefully designed to limit the potential for incremental change through redevelopment.

Unfortunately, these issues have not been a significant part of Toronto’s transit planning debates.

It’s a remarkable omission, given that recent transit proposals — from Rob Ford (open Rob Ford's policard)’s subway to John Tory (open John Tory's policard)’s SmartTrack — have identified land value capture from development charges or tax increment finance as a major source of funding.

We recently examined all the proposed transit lines to be built in Scarborough and found significant variation in development potential along different corridors. The existing street configurations, housing types and parcel sizes are all important considerations shaping the pattern and quantity of redevelopment potential near transit stops.

Toronto’s suburbs were deliberately designed to limit incremental change and redevelopment within residential areas. Virtually all of Scarborough is recently built, in good repair and there are few vacant lots. Most of Scarborough consists of “stable residential neighbourhoods” where intensification and significant redevelopment is not permitted and is frequently opposed by residents. Careful evaluation shows the potential for redevelopment and intensification is limited.

The best opportunities for redevelopment are along Scarborough’s east-west arterials, such as Eglinton and Sheppard, because of their large lots, wide property frontages and the low current intensity of land use. These areas also contain low-density retail sites with large areas of surface parking.

LRT lines proposed as part of the Transit City plan along these arterial roads would not only be cheaper and faster to build than a subway, they offer greater potential for spurring much-needed reinvestment. By comparison, building the Scarborough subway extension from Kennedy to Sheppard Ave., as approved by Toronto City Council in 2013, would be expensive, accessible to far fewer potential riders from the surrounding neighbourhoods and offers much lower potential for redevelopment.

We found that three LRT lines would serve an area eight times greater than that of the proposed subway. There is over five times the area of prime redevelopment land within walking distance of LRT lines and the number of jobs within walking distance of stops is nearly five times that for the subway—14,400 vs. 2,800. Last, the total population within walking distance of LRT stops is currently more than 125,100 compared to less than 10,600 for the subway.

Our findings suggest the LRT plan is a superior option because it offers a longer set of lines and provides rapid transit to more of Scarborough. It’s also a better fit with the existing urban geography and patterns of population and jobs in Scarborough than the proposed subway.

Whatever is eventually decided regarding the Scarborough subway and SmartTrack — which face years of planning, engineering study and approvals before they can break ground — construction of the fully funded Sheppard LRT should start immediately.

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It performs best of all the potential lines in terms of the number of residents, jobs and pedestrian network per kilometre, and is already approved with completed environmental assessments. The Sheppard LRT could most likely begin carrying passengers before construction starts on either of the other two proposals.