With budget season entering its final weeks, city, county and school district leaders are staring down an unpleasant reality — and so are St. Paul property owners.

If the proposed St. Paul, Ramsey County and St. Paul Public Schools tax levies pass as planned, owners of a median-value St. Paul home — $186,000 — will see their tax burden increase $188 next year.

That could reach as much as $323 if a school district tax levy passes in November — with wide variation by property value and neighborhood.

In other words, average individual tax bills could go up 7.5 percent, or as much as 12.8 percent if the school levy is approved.

Then there’s another $23 or so in St. Paul fee increases, as well as costs that are harder to quantify, such as the impact of a new garbage-collection service in St. Paul.

The city-driven contract with a group of private haulers will save some homeowners money, while adding as much as $300 in annual costs to properties that once shared collection with a neighbor.

The new rules call for one cart per home — no more sharing allowed.

St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter has defended his budget proposal and the possible $16 million tax levy increase, noting that many residents have told him key investments in city services and public infrastructure are badly needed.

“From eliminating overdue library fines to rebuilding our streets, this budget proposes an exciting set of investments that advance the bold vision we’ve built for St. Paul children and families,” Carter said in a recent statement.

Carter also backs the school levy, which was put on the ballot after a unanimous vote of the St. Paul School Board in July.

Members of the St. Paul City Council have called the cumulative impact of the tax levy increases too high and are studying where they can nip and tuck the mayor’s budget proposal, while adding in priorities of their own.

Several council members have expressed interest in adding as many as 15 St. Paul police investigators to the department while back-filling promotions and vacancies, hiring a city council policy analyst, adding programming or hours to the Eastview and Highwood recreation centers, funding traffic-calming projects and other community benefits.

TAX LEVY INCREASE COULD BE TRIMMED

Public taxing authorities set their maximum levies little more than a week ago. That’s the upper limit to how much the total taxes collected across the city, county, school district or special taxing area may increase.

Those numbers can still come down by the time 2019 budgets are finalized in December, though they probably won’t be trimmed dramatically.

Instead of an 11.5 percent increase, St. Paul City Council President Amy Brendmoen in late September called for a city tax levy increase “potentially even under 10 percent.”

Even dropping the tax levy increase to 10.46 percent, however, while funding the council’s priorities would mean finding at least an additional $3 million, according to numbers prepared for the council Wednesday by council analyst Holly Huston.

That’s a challenge, but not unheard of.

Brendmoen noted, for instance, that city sales tax revenue has been coming in at a healthy rate.

Here’s a quick look at the proposed taxes and fees affecting a median-value St. Paul home — $186,000 — in 2019.

These changes assume that the tax levies — the total amount of taxes collected — increase 11.5 percent in St. Paul, 4.3 percent in Ramsey County, 7.8 percent for the Ramsey County Regional Rail and 4.4 percent for the St. Paul school district.

In addition, the St. Paul Housing and Redevelopment Authority has proposed raising its levy by as much as 16.7 percent, or $4.21 for a typical St. Paul home. The HRA levy is one of several special taxing districts.

TAX INCREASES

St. Paul: $77

Ramsey County: $47

Ramsey County Regional Rail: $6

St. Paul school district (without levy): $50

Special taxing districts: $8

TOTAL TAX INCREASES: $188

If a St. Paul school district levy passes in November: $135.

GRAND TOTAL TAX INCREASE: $323

ST. PAUL FEE INCREASES

Proposed St. Paul fee increases, with percentages in parentheses comparing an actual 2018 bill with a proposed 2019 bill for a median-value home:

Right-of-way maintenance (5.4 percent): $5

Sanitary sewer charges (3.1 percent): $9

Storm sewer charges (3.2 percent): $3

Recycling: No increase

Garbage collection annual administrative fee ($25 in 2018): No increase*

Water charges (2 percent): $6

TOTAL FEE INCREASES: $23*

*The city of St. Paul’s $25 annual administrative fee for organized trash collection begins in 2018 and will not increase in 2019.