This strategy was inspired by a fantastic article at Baseball Prospectus. According to Mike Gianella, the top 15 starting pitchers accounted for almost half of the total pitcher earnings. 47% to be precise. That’s up eight percent over the last four years. I typically stay away from drafting pitchers early due to the higher risk, but if I ever needed a reason to try drafting pitchers aggressively, this would be it. When life gives you a top-heavy pitching talent curve, draft pitchers early and often. I drafted 10th in this one which was fine by me because my plan all along was to grab Max Scherzer in the first round.

1st Round: SP – Max Scherzer

Nothing much to say. Lower ceiling than Kershaw, but unparalleled for reliability and will rack up Ws.

2nd Round: 1B – Joey Votto

Another safety pick. Sexier guys like Judge and Lindor were available here, but I needed a dependable anchor for my offence in case the pitching-heavy draft strategy left me with a punchless group of bats.

3rd Round: SP – Noah Syndergaard

Here’s where the pitcher run begins. Buckle up. Before the dust settled, I had passed up on bats like Marcell Ozuna and Anthony Rendon when my rotation was already five deep with studs. It was exhilarating for someone who usually sticks to hitters in the early rounds. Thor’s sharp spring training is finally bringing his ADP up to around where it should be (33 currently). Is undoubtedly an SP1, but even better to be able to slot him in at SP2.

4th Round: SP – Zack Greinke

The humidor will dampen the power at Chase Field, but it should be boosting Greinke’s ADP (43). The fact that Robbie Ray is going just one pick after Greinke is nuts.

5th Round: SP – Chris Archer

A career-high 11.5 K/9 and career low walk rate, but a second straight year of home run problems. The projections see him regressing back towards a mid 3’s ERA and punching out 200+. The Ws will be hard to come by, but I’ll take the other stuff.

6th Round: SP – Aaron Nola

I got shares of Nola in all my drafts last year and it paid off huge. All of his pitches are filthy and his command is developing year after year. Probably won’t happen, but if he can stay healthy and break the 200 IP plateau I’m tabbing him as a dark horse for the NL Cy Young.

7th Round: SS – Xander Bogaerts

To those selecting Jean Segura ahead of Bogaerts, what are you thinking? Bogaerts issues last year were a direct result of his wrist injury, and when healthy he is a run scoring machine in a deadly Red Sox lineup.

8th Round: OF – Lorenzo Cain

He’s on the wrong side of 30, but is always a lock to give you 20-30 SB with a solid average and 15-20 homers. Speed was hard to come by, as much like pitching, the good stealers are concentrated at the top (Hamilton, Buxton, Gordon).

9th Round: OF – Matt Olson

I’m excited to see what Olson can do over a full season. His power is absurd, which this team will need as neither Votto nor Cain are a sure bet to break 30 HR. The 27% strikeout rate is a worry. Since he contributes in no other categories, there’s a possibility he doesn’t earn 9th round value.

10th Round: 3B – Adrian Beltre

How I learned to stop worrying and love when Adrian Beltre falls to the 10th round. Yes, he’s 37 years old. But he’s still a beast.

11th Round: RP – Raisel Iglesias

I hate drafting relief pitchers for saves and will never do it in the first ten rounds, but (a) Iglesias’ job is very safe, and (b) he throws multiple innings and gives you great ratios over a high volume.

12th Round: 2B – Ozzie Albies

Steamer projects 12 HR/21 SB to go along with a .272 AVG and .330 OBP. I’ll take the over on that. I don’t think he’ll repeat the .354 OBP from 2017, but his plate discipline (9% BB) was impressive in his first MLB action. I could see him playing closer to .280/.340/ with 15 HR and 30 SB.

13th Round: SP – Michael Fulmer

The final SP I selected, and one I’ve been grabbing tons of shares in. He had the same surgery as Jacob deGrom (ulnar transposition), which is cause for optimism. He had the same surgery as Steven Matz, which is not. He’s looked sharp thus far in Spring Training, but was scratched from his upcoming start due to elbow soreness that was apparently unrelated to the surgery. Monitor him closely and don’t expect an injury-free campaign, but the former Rookie of the Year could provide huge value this late.

14th Round: OF – Kyle Schwarber

Just when the Schwarber hype finally died down, he had to go hit the gym and get everyone excited again. If he can up his contact rate he could approximate what Khris Davis did last year. If not, he’s a poor man’s Joey Gallo.

15th Round: IF – Jonathan Villar

If he gets enough playing time I could see a 15 HR/30SB season in Villar. Why not take a bet on that possibility in the 15th round. Plus I could see the Brewers use him in a utility role that would boost his eligibility value.

16th Round: OF – Mitch Haniger

Last year during Haniger’s pre-injury tear, Jeff Sulivan found comps for the Mariners outfielder based on his hitting profile (things like contact rate, in-zone swing rates, etc). The names were gaudy: Edwin Encarnacion, Bryce Harper, Jose Bautista, Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Texeira, Trevor Plouffe. Oh, did I say Trevor Plouffe. Forget I said that. I love the potential here.

17th Round: RP – Brad Peacock

Peacock has one of the filthiest arsenals out of the Astros’ embarrassment of pitching riches. His undefined role out of the pen is valuable because (a) he accumulates a ton of innings while keeping elite ratios, and (b) is both SP and RP eligible. He’s Andrew Miller lite, and will be an asset in holds leagues.

18th Round: C – Robinson Chirinos

All the catchers worth spending a mid-high draft pick on were taken by the time I was done drafting every pitcher in sight, so I waited until the very end to nab my favourite bottom-of-the-barrel catcher this draft season. There was some BABIP luck involved in his 2017 breakout, but the power looked like a real build on the flash we saw in 2016. With Lucroy out of the picture and little competition otherwise, he should be able to finally show us what he can do over a full season. I could see him out earning guys like Evan Gattis and J.T. Relamuto.

19th Round: C – Francisco Mejia

But then again I could see him proving me wrong and losing the starting job, so why not hedge my bets with a sure-fire catching prospect! (That has never been a good idea, but Mejia’s skills involve contact and gap power, which is a safe bet.

The Squad

Hitters

C – Robinson Chirinos

1B – Joey Votto

2B – Ozzie Albies

3B – Adrian Beltre

SS – Xander Bogaerts

OF – Lorenzo Cain

OF – Matt Olson

OF – Kyle Schwarber

Util – Mitch Haniger

BN – Jonathan Villar

BN – Francisco Mejia

Pitchers

SP – Max Scherzer

SP – Noah Syndergaard

SP – Zack Greinke

SP – Chris Archer

SP – Aaron Nola

SP – Michael Fulmer

RP – Raisel Iglesias

RP – Brad Peacock

The Verdict: A

I wasn’t expect to come away with five aces and still have a somewhat OK offence, but somehow it worked. Injuries (Syndergaard, Beltre) and underperforming rookies (Albies, Olson, Haniger) could easily derail this squad, but I’m excited to try out this strategy in my head-to-head league. I like the sneaky speed sources I’ve got in Villar, Haniger and Albies, but the power is definitely lacking.

The fun corollary to me having five aces is that there’s going to be a few teams in desperate need of an ace. If I can’t bolster my offence through early waiver pickups or prospects, I’ll have a decent amount of leverage if I put one of my aces on the market.