michael barbaro

Today: As voting begins in Iowa, marking the beginning of the 2020 election, we’re launching a new show covering the country and the voters in the lead up to November. It’s Monday, February 3.

astead herndon So we have a Cory Booker sign, we have a Warren sign, a Pete one, an Amy Klobuchar one. A “Parking for Bob’s Girlfriend Only” sign. This is Bob’s house. I really hope someone’s here. [KNOCKING] austin mitchell I hear someone. astead herndon Yeah we’ve got some action. Hi, how are you? bob henderson Good, good. astead herndon My name’s Astead, this is Austin. We’re journalists. bob henderson Hi. Molly! [dog barking] How about I throw her in the basement. astead herndon Yeah, no problem. We’ll be here waiting for you. bob henderson O.K. come on, Molly, come on. astead herndon Hi, Molly. [dog barking]

astead herndon

From The New York Times, this is “The Field.” I’m Astead Herndon, in Iowa.

astead herndon I get really uncomfortable around dogs. Hi! So we’re journalists. We’re from The New York Times. We’re talking to folks about the caucasus. bob henderson Oh, O.K. astead herndon And I see the signs here. I know there’s — bob henderson Yeah, I’ve got a couple more around. There’s one buried, I think, down there. astead herndon Are you someone who’s decided on who — bob henderson We’re pretty sure we’re — not 100 percent. astead herndon You’re not 100 percent? Well that’s the type of folks we like to talk to. bob henderson All right, well here I am. astead herndon Tell me the decision process. Tell me who you’re thinking about. bob henderson Wow, there’s a lot of people. Thinking about Elizabeth Warren. And I don’t know, maybe — I like Pete too. It depends on who you listened to last, damn near. astead herndon But what makes you nervous? It seems like there’s some anxiety around that. bob henderson Electability. Just we have to beat somebody that’s there already. astead herndon So how does that electability question impact whether or not you’ll vote for Elizabeth Warren? bob henderson Well, I’m wondering if Republicans will vote for Biden. And they may not for Pete, but some of them will. And some of them will for Warren, I think, too. It’s just how many. astead herndon So part of your vote is trying to figure out who you think Republicans would vote for in the general election? bob henderson Yes, that’s part of it. astead herndon I don’t hear Bernie. Is he on your list? bob henderson He’s down there, maybe. astead herndon What’s the decision there? Why? bob henderson I don’t think Republicans will vote for him. astead herndon Yeah. austin mitchell You seemed pretty wracked with indecision. bob henderson Yeah. You gather that, huh? I just — Jesus. [LAUGHS] astead herndon You’ll be happy when this thing is over, huh? bob henderson Yeah. Yeah. astead herndon What’s your name? bob henderson Bob Henderson. astead herndon Bob. I don’t envy you. You seem — bob henderson [LAUGHS] astead herndon It’s much easier going and asking people all these questions than to be making these choices. It seems like you’re wrestling with it. bob henderson Yeah. Yeah, it wasn’t that hard last time. astead herndon Who’d you caucus for last time? bob henderson We went Hillary. But I didn’t do something right. We did something wrong.

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astead herndon

So a week before the Iowa caucuses, I went with my colleagues, Austin Mitchell and Andy Mills, to the Des Moines region to talk to voters about how they’re feeling. For months, we’ve been seeing a really fluid race in the state. Top candidates like Pete Buttigieg could be leading in one month, Elizabeth Warren could be leading the next. Some polls show Joe Biden leading. And most recently, Bernie Sanders has held a firm lead at the top. Even more, when we started talking to voters, they weren’t just deciding between one or two candidates that were the same ideologically, but maybe even between candidates that seemingly have conflicting policy positions. So you can meet a voter who’s flipping between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. You can meet a voter that’s flipping between Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. So we wanted to get a better sense of what was going on on the ground.

andy mills We are in the small town of Russell, Iowa.

astead herndon

And over and over, people kept going back to the same moment.

andy mills Down some very lonely streets to come here and talk to this lady. casey dehoedt You guys need a hand with anything? austin mitchell Hi. andy mills We’re just out here talking to ourselves. casey dehoedt No, you’re fine. andy mills Are you Casey? casey dehoedt I am Casey. andy mills I’m Andy. casey dehoedt Andy, nice to meet you. austin mitchell Hi, Casey. andy mills This is Austin. casey dehoedt Austin, nice to meet you guys.

astead herndon

So a couple days ago, Austin and Andy went out to meet Casey DeHoedt.

casey dehoedt Yeah, my name is Casey DeHoedt. I’m 36 years old. I’m a full-time supervisor at a warehouse in the area, and I’m a city councilwoman here in Russell.

astead herndon

And for her and for a lot of Iowa Democrats, the story actually begins in 2008.

casey dehoedt Yeah, I remember — I remember that pretty well, because it was — it was Obama and it was Hillary. archived recording Voters give Clinton high marks for being strong, experienced, decisive, and compassionate. But is Clinton likable? casey dehoedt And at that time, I don’t think Hillary was particularly popular, but she seemed like she was going to be the pretty clear candidate. And then here comes this meteor out of Chicago, which is Barack Obama. archived recording 1 The question is whether or not Obama, an African-American candidate from the big city of Chicago, can connect with the primarily white rural voters here. archived recording 2 I think we’re listening —

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archived recording (barack obama) Thank you, Iowa. casey dehoedt And then Iowa picked him, and I remember being pretty floored. archived recording (barack obama) They said — they said this day would never come. [CHEERING] But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do. casey dehoedt Iowa sort of saw the lightning and was able to put it in the bottle, and then the rest of the nation was like, yeah, we see it too. archived recording (barack obama) You have done what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days. [CHEERING] You have done what America can do in this new year, 2008.

astead herndon

So 2008 becomes this vitally important year for Iowa Democrats. They have a sense of pride, a real sense of ownership around Barack Obama’s historic campaign. They feel like they saw in him what the rest of the country would eventually see. And that they helped launch an upstart candidate to the Democratic nomination, and then eventually, the historic presidency.

archived recording (barack obama) We are one nation, we are one people, and our time for change has come. [CHEERING] andy mills But that’s not the story of the 2016 campaign, is it? casey dehoedt No. [LAUGHS] That was awful. andy mills Can we go back to like right around this time about four years ago, when you were doing this Iowa thing of trying to pick the first candidate? archived recording The Democrats getting ready for their final face off tonight in Iowa before voters go out and caucus next week. Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley. Yes, he’s still in there. andy mills What were you thinking, how were you weighing, what were you liking? casey dehoedt For me, it was pretty obvious early on, Hillary. But ramping up to the caucus day, Bernie was really starting to gain some steam. archived recording — last minute, as most polls show Sanders is closing in on Hillary Clinton’s lead in Iowa and beating her in New Hampshire. casey dehoedt And I was like, I could really switch to this guy right now. But my only thing about Bernie was Barack Obama had a lot of difficulty getting a lot of legislation through because the different legislative bodies thought he was so liberal, that they didn’t really want to do anything with him. I thought, well, my god, if Barack Obama can’t get that achieved, how are they going to let Bernie Sanders, who’s this progressive out of nowhere who’s asking for all these crazy things? So I thought, nope, it’s going to be Hillary. She’s going to be the one who’s more electable in the general.

astead herndon

What happens next is very specific to Iowa’s caucus system. Rather than the traditional voting booth where someone goes in and selects one candidate, caucusgoers show up to a big room, oftentimes a gymnasium or a local community center, and they stand in a group with other people who support their candidate. But that’s not a set thing. People can make appeals to each other, and things can shuffle around before the final vote is taken.

casey dehoedt They ask several times, does anybody want to change their candidate? This is where everyone’s at in the room. Does anybody want to switch sides? Last chance. And I kept thinking, “I could just get up, go over sit with that other group. But no, it’s going to be Hillary.” archived recording (hillary clinton) I am so thrilled that I’m coming to New Hampshire after winning Iowa.

astead herndon

And it was Hillary.

archived recording The first woman ever to win the Iowa caucuses did it by two-tenths of 1 percent.

astead herndon

Iowa voted for Clinton over Sanders by the smallest margin in caucus history, 49.8 to 49.6.

casey dehoedt I thought, well, Hillary’s incredibly qualified. She’s earned it.

astead herndon

And about nine months later, well, we know what happened.

archived recording Right now, a historic moment. We can now project the winner of the presidential race. CNN projects Donald Trump wins the presidency, the business tycoon, a TV personality, capping his improbable political journey with an astounding upset victory. Donald J. Trump will become the 45th president of the United States, defeating Hillary Clinton. casey dehoedt And then once Trump was elected, then I felt like “Invasion of the Body Snatchers.” I see all these Trump shirts around and I’m like, wait, where have I been living? And I was just like, my god, they really hated Hillary. I really took it as less of a Trump win as it was a Hillary loss. and I feel like they wanted a change in politics. Bernie would have been a change in politics. Hillary Clinton was the status quo. They didn’t want status quo. andy mills And yet, you chose her because you found her to be the more reasonable and electable candidate. Did the election shake that sense, that you knew what was electable? casey dehoedt Very much. Very much changed that. Had I known then what I know now, I would have switched so fast. I would have definitely gone Bernie. Had I switched and had Bernie been the nominee for the party, he would be president right now. andy mills Well, when it comes to this year, how confident are you that this time around, you can find the candidate that is more electable? casey dehoedt Not at all confident. That last election, 2016 was just such a mindblow. I mean, nobody saw that coming. But yeah, going into this election, that’s definitely something that’s into my mind is, what’s a candidate that I like and what’s a candidate that speaks to me, but what’s a candidate that might have a more broad appeal? This is probably the crux of why I’m an undecided caucusgoer, is because I’m trying to negotiate that space of —

astead herndon

So Casey calls it having her mind blown. My colleague, Alex Burns, says that some Democrats feel as if their brains have been broken. But it’s this effect where Democrats do not trust themselves to make the right electoral decision. They no longer trust their own instincts about determining what electability is. Do they go with the candidate who speaks to their sense of inspiration, an Obama-like figure, someone who can maybe rally the party through soaring rhetoric or the like? Or do they try to think of who is most electable to other people? But they don’t even know what that is. For a lot of people, they thought that was Hillary Clinton, and that didn’t turn out well. And so with just days to go, you’re seeing Iowa Democrats really frozen.

andy mills With days until your caucus, while you’re still undecided, what is it that you’re most afraid of? casey dehoedt That’s a good question. I’m worried that the first week in November, that Wednesday after the general election, again waking up and going, “Dammit, I did it again, I voted for the wrong candidate,” knowing that I felt better about a different candidate.

[music]

astead herndon

So we wanted to talk to more undecided voters like Casey.

andy mills We are in the Beaverdale neighborhood of Des Moines, Iowa. We are walking through this residential neighborhood to knock on some doors and ask Iowans how they’re feeling. austin mitchell There’s a surprising amount of snow on the ground. andy mills I just hope it doesn’t get any colder. astead herndon [KNOCKING] austin mitchell Strong knock. astead herndon Yeah, it’s a fine line between the strong knock and the police knock, which you don’t want to do. Hi, how are you? My name’s Astead. This is Austin and Andy. We’re reporters with The New York Times. How’s it going? speaker 1 Oh gosh, fine. I have a sleeping baby though. astead herndon Oh. Oh, that’s cool. speaker 1 She just woke up. andy mills We wondered if we could ask you a couple of questions? speaker 2 I can’t. I’m in the middle of a conference call actually. Sorry. andy mills Sorry to interrupt you. astead herndon Are you someone who’s thought about who you’re going to caucus for? speaker 3 Actually sir, I’m somebody who has to go get his wife. She’s getting off at 1 o’clock. You want to report that in The Times? astead herndon I mean hey, that’s big news. speaker 3 If I’m not there in time, it’ll be big news. austin mitchell All right, thank you sir.

astead herndon

Obviously, there were some people who were totally decided.

speaker 1 Bernie. austin mitchell No doubts about it? speaker 2 Yeah, I think we’re caucusing for Bernie. andy mills Was it a hard choice to pick Bernie? speaker 3 No. speaker 4 I’ll be caucusing for Bernie Sanders. astead herndon O.K. speaker 4 Yep.

astead herndon

Are you someone who just made that choice, or this is something that’s been true for a long time?

speaker 4 It’s been true for a long time — speaker 5 Andrew Yang, 2020. andy mills Yeah? Not undecided, you know. speaker 5 Yep. austin mitchell Is there anyone else here that is trying to make a decision still that might be willing to chat with us for a bit? speaker 5 Yeah, she likes Joe Biden. Sam, are you going to caucus for Joe Biden? speaker 6 No, I’m caucusing for Pete Buttigieg. speaker 5 Pete Buttigieg. andy mills Can we chat with her for just a little bit? speaker 5 She says she’s too hungover. andy mills Hungover roommate, do you want to share your thoughts on your candidate? speaker 5 Hungover roommate, do you want to share your political opinions? speaker 6 No, I want to vomit. speaker 5 See, hangover people vote for Pete Buttigieg. I’m clear-minded, though, so that’s why I’m for Yang.

[music]

astead herndon

But just as often —

astead herndon Hi. speaker 1 Hey, I’m sorry. I thought you were somebody else. I don’t have time. All right, bye bye. astead herndon We’re just — we’re just reporters just trying to gauge the caucus on Monday. Are you planning on going? speaker 1 Yes. I thought you were selling something. O.K. I’m on my way out. But honestly, I can’t decide. I’m not a Bernie lover, so if you guys are Bernie bros that like — O.K. so then it’s sort of like, I want to vote for — I want to vote for someone who people in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will vote for. That’s who I want to vote for. andy mills And do you have — is there anybody in the front of mind that you think is best for that? speaker 1 Elizabeth, and I love Amy. I’d really like to vote for a woman. Because you know, I’m going to die soon, and there’s still not been a woman president. But I feel like there’s so much prejudice against us Bettys, you know what I mean? I’ve got to think about it in bigger terms than who I want. I’m kind of obsessive about politics. astead herndon I can hear the TV on in the background. speaker 1 Well, it’s got to be loud now for when I’m getting ready. astead herndon Have you made a decision on who you’re going to caucus for? speaker 2 I have it down to two. The two I came down to are the one I support the most and the one I think probably has the best chance to win. So I think, I’m going to caucus I think for Amy Klobuchar, and then I’d imagine she’s not going to have enough, so then I think I’ll probably go to Joe Biden. andy mills Yeah, what was that like for you? speaker 2 Yeah. Well it felt like — I’d love to go with just a gut feeling, I love somebody really a lot. I don’t have that person so much this year, like when Obama was around, you know? That was really nice to have that gut feeling. So you have to just do it more intellectually, gather more information. The more you can get and the more wise decision you can make and go from there. Does that answer your question? austin mitchell Yeah. But with that intellectual decision, it seems it’s not just a personal intellectual decision. You’re trying to project a little bit into the minds of others. speaker 2 When it comes down to the who I think can win part — definitely. andy mills And how have you been factoring that? speaker 2 I’m hearing a lot of people that don’t think anybody but Biden can really win. Not sure I totally agree with that, but I think this year’s election is special because we need to make sure that we win. And about everybody I talk to, the main focus is making sure Trump doesn’t have another four years. And it’s not so much get that candidate you love. It’s get him out.

[music]

andy mills Hi there! speaker 3 Finding anybody to talk to? andy mills We are finding a few people. Everyone seems to be pretty nice. You guys look like you’re leaving though. Can we just ask two questions? speaker 3 Got to get to work. andy mills Are you planning on voting next week? speaker 3 Oh yeah. austin mitchell Who’s your number one? speaker 3 Huh? austin mitchell Who’s your number one? speaker 3 I don’t know yet. andy mills You don’t know? speaker 3 No. andy mills That’s why we want to ask you about it. speaker 3 Too complicated to answer it. andy mills When do you think you’ll make your decision? speaker 3 Probably there. andy mills Probably there? speaker 3 Yeah. andy mills Why is it so hard? speaker 3 It’s all about electability, so it’s hard to decide what factors are going to control electability. So it’s complicated. andy mills You just want to win in November? speaker 3 Absolutely. Guy’s a fucking idiot.

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astead herndon

Six months ago, the Democratic primary was all about the ideological divides. There were the progressives, who were promising systemic change and upheaval, and the moderates, who wanted to work more within the system. But now, it’s just about who can win.

andy mills Test. austin mitchell Do you have time to chat? pat body Oh. Hi, I’m Pat Body. andy mills Hi, Pat. I’m Andy. pat body Hi, Andy. austin mitchell Hi, Pat. Austin. pat body Austin, nice to meet you. And you guys are —

astead herndon

So after a day of knocking on doors, a very cold day of knocking on doors, we decided to go to a coffee shop nearby. We found Pat sitting at the table.

pat body I think what people do not necessarily appreciate unless they’ve spent some time here is just how seriously we take this job. I have several friends. We’ve all tried to make sure we’ve seen pretty much every candidate in person. andy mills And how many people involved with different campaigns do you think you’ve spoken to? pat body Oh, I’ve spoken to almost all of the candidates. I may have missed Marianne Williamson, but I think I have spoken to every other candidate in the field. I don’t think I’m alone in that. austin mitchell When you say spoken to, do you mean like we are speaking right now? pat body Yeah. I’ve probably been to a total of 20 plus or more events, and some of them have been long-form conversations. There was a Steyer event at a friend’s house just the other day. I saw Elizabeth Warren at our representative’s pharmacy. There were like 10 of us there and Elizabeth Warren. I mean, I’m telling you, it’s just — you feel like you get to know them quite a little bit. Did that help answer your question? austin mitchell That was delightful. andy mills Yeah.

astead herndon

So believe it or not, Pat’s process is pretty typical of the Iowa caucusgoer. They take real pride in meeting multiple presidential candidates and vetting them and asking them tough questions. And they see it as their personal duty, because they’re the state that votes first in the primaries. And like a lot of other Iowa Democrats this year, Pat’s making this decision on the basis of who’s best positioned to beat President Trump. And she was struggling.

austin mitchell Who are the candidates that you are really fighting between in your mind? pat body Warren, Booker, Buttigieg, and then of course Steyer came into the picture. Quite frankly, the vast majority in the field was really appealing.

astead herndon

But at a certain point, she just changed the way she was thinking.

pat body I think a lot of us were thinking about electability for a long time, and I finally realized I don’t have the expertise to pick electability. It’s hard. I mean, you can’t even try — the polls are messy. The Electoral College is in the mix. It’s just a very difficult choice to make that way. So I’m going to pick on the basis of who do I think would make a great president.

astead herndon

And when she did that, her choice became pretty clear.

pat body Mayor Pete Buttigieg. I was really looking for someone that was a combination of climate and character and the ability to unify the country. So when I put all of those pieces together, that added up to Pete Buttigieg. austin mitchell So where are we right now? What is this? speaker We are at the Urbandale field office for Pete for America, about to attend the last precinct training for Pete’s precinct captains in Urbandale. austin mitchell And there’s Pete signs up everywhere. We’ve got some coffee and crackers, people settling in.

astead herndon

So we wanted to spend time with the Buttigieg campaign, because it’s notable that here in Iowa he’s doing significantly better than he’s doing in other parts of the country. And part of the reason that’s been true is that voters here see him as an Obama analogous figure. They see another young Midwesterner, someone who would be a historic president as the first openly gay president. And also someone who speaks their rhetorical language about inspiration, about coming together, about knitting the country’s moral fabric back together. And his campaign has been hearing the same things about electability that we’ve been hearing. And so to close the deal in Iowa, they’re making an argument to try to get more Iowans to think like Pat, to embrace the idea that the most electable candidate is the one that inspires you the most.

speaker 1 His intellect drew me first. Yeah, that was the first thing. I thought, you know, there’s no doubt. And the more I look at him, goodness. He speaks several languages. He’s a vet. He’s everything you could possibly want. speaker 2 Him being a veteran is one of the keys for me. He knows what it’s like to be on the receiving end of those deployment orders. speaker 3 I was really impressed with him. He was very intelligent, very straightforward. speaker 4 I like the fact that he’s young. I mean, I’m just — I’m tired of old white men. [laughter] speaker 5 What a minute, let me rephrase. speaker 6 There are men here. speaker 7 And I wanted to listen to somebody with some new ideas, with some ideas of Middle American values, and that’s why I picked him. I’d love to see Pete on the debate stage with Trump. speaker 8 Oh, wouldn’t you? speaker 9 Oh my gosh. I’d pay good money for that. I’d dip into my savings even. [LAUGHS] brandon Clap twice if you can hear me. [CLAPPING] Clap twice if you can hear me. [CLAPPING] Great. Look at this group. We got a good group in here. Yeah. [APPLAUSE] We really appreciate everyone coming. We’re all here for one reason, and that’s because we believe Pete is the candidate that we need right now. And you know what Pete needs? speaker 11 Us. brandon Yes. You guys are a smart group of people. [laughter] brandon I’m done. You guys got it. speaker 12 We’ve been around the barn — brandon People will be sold on Pete. They just need to hear his message. And when you finally get someone to talk to and you can convey that message to them, they become a believer. They become a supporter, and they will join our team. We have only a few days left. We are running out of time right now. This is your last chance to show Iowa, to show the country that Pete can have a strong showing. Pete can come through. If you don’t understand this urgency right now, you haven’t been following the news. We have a few days left, guys, so turn to your neighbor. Tell them, I’m excited to be coming and door knocking. Go ahead. Do that right now. [CHATTER] astead herndon So can you tell me your name? julie witoff Julie Witoff. astead herndon And what do you do? julie witoff I’m retired. I was a financial planner for 40 years.

astead herndon

So Julie’s one of the volunteers at the event. And she’s been personally inspired by Buttigieg.

julie witoff I heard him for the first time on a blogcast with Preet Bharara. And I was driving in my car, and I tuned in about five minutes after it started, and I had no idea who he was. And I listened for the remaining 40 minutes of the blogcast, and I remember sitting in my driveway thinking, my gosh, who is this guy? He is so smart. He was answering multipoint questions just so articulately. So I canvass most weekends. I have for the last couple of months. So I’ve knocked on about 400 doors. I’ll probably hit 500 by the end of this weekend. astead herndon And you knock on doors, what’s the issues that come up the most often? julie witoff How to beat President Trump. As a group, Democrats are so traumatized by the entire Trump experience that we’re kind of like a group of deer in the headlights. So the bottom-line conversation always comes around to, I’ll support anybody in the field. I like this person or I like that person. But so often I’ll hear, well, Pete’s in my top three, but I like so-and-so, and maybe it needs to be Joe Biden because maybe he’s the most electable. So the conversation just goes around and around. And then we just talk about — or I talk about the things that draw me to Pete. When I listen to him speak, my blood pressure goes down instead of up. I’m tired of the politics of outrage. I’m tired of being outraged. astead herndon Speaking of politics of outrage, I mean, I think about Bernie Sanders. Would the prospect of a Sanders nomination as a Democrat make you nervous? julie witoff Yes, because I personally don’t think he’s electable. I don’t think that his extreme left-wing policies will garner the support he needs, particularly in the Electoral College states that we need to win. So on those levels it concerns me. I don’t personally have a strong feeling one way or the other about Bernie. It’s just a fear of looking at his politics, having a life of experience watching how this country functions. And feeling that if the country as a majority wanted a democratic socialist government, the Congress would be full of democratic socialists. We would be electing those people, and we don’t. So sure it’s a concern.

astead herndon

I asked Julie this because of another dynamic that’s happening among Democrats. So Sanders is also pulling ahead in New Hampshire, the second state to vote after Iowa. And so one of the problems that all this indecision is causing for the other campaigns is that a clear rival to Sanders is yet to emerge in the first two states. Their support is fractured. And no candidate has won both Iowa and New Hampshire and then gone on to lose the Democratic nomination.

astead herndon Doesn’t that mean, though, that the Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar wing needs to pick a person and stick with it? julie witoff We’ll get there. We’re early in the process. The electability issue to me — I guess my main feeling is that knowing our history as Democrats, in the last 60 years we’ve won when we’ve nominated somebody that’s young, inspirational, outside the Washington politics. When we try and go with somebody that’s safe and electable, we lose. And I just — I do feel that Pete can put together that coalition.

astead herndon

So Julie’s essentially bringing us back to where we started, to 2008 when Iowa captured that lightning in a bottle and helped spring Barack Obama to the Democratic nomination. And with that logic, 2016 is the aberration, and Democrats shouldn’t use that fear of electability as a framework for choosing candidates going forward.

jay My personal belief is that anyone who has any faith in their powers of political prognostication after 2016 is either delusional or much more plugged in than I am. One of the two, maybe both.

astead herndon

This is Jay, another Buttigieg volunteer.

jay So I think that most Iowans do know our outsized import, in the sense that if a candidate does well here, it’s a launching pad. Generally you get that big bounce in the polls. You’re going have a position to do better in New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina. And if you can show, like Barack Obama did, that you can win over Iowans, the rest of the country pays attention to that. We do — I think some Iowans do get in a little chicken and the egg. So it’s like, we look at the rest of the country and go, who’s doing well there? Because I want somebody who can win across the country. And then the rest of the country is kind of looking at us. It’s like, all right, well who can do well in Middle America, right? And so there is this sort of feedback loop that we can get caught in and there’s just no off ramp. Which is why for me, it just makes a ton more sense to support the candidate that excites you and trust that the things that are exciting to you are exciting to your neighbors and people around the country as well. andy mills So you’re saying you’re trying not to play the electability game but that your most important issue is winning in November? jay All of my most important issues flow from winning in November, right? So in that regard, sure, electability is my primary concern. There’s no scenario in which I’m going to go full-throatedly support a candidate that I suspect can’t win. More what I’m saying is, I don’t know. I don’t know who can win, who will win. I will say I think every Democrat can win. I’m not super responsive to arguments that’s like I’m backing this candidate because the rest of them won’t win. I think we run the risk of overlearning the lessons of 2016.

[music]

astead herndon

But the Obama campaign worked in 2008, because what Iowans were feeling was also what Democrats across the country were feeling. And also what the general electorate was feeling. It is unclear that any Democrat in this race has the ability to recreate the coalitions which led him to the presidency. And in that view, there is a risk of under learning lessons from 2016.

brandon If you can hear me, clap once. If you can hear me, clap twice. [CLAPPING] So on caucus night, we all talked about it. We’re going to get there early. We’re going to help out as much as we can. And everyone’s going to wear their button. All right? All right. Any last questions? Otherwise I’m going to let you guys dismiss. All right, thank you. speaker Thank you, Brandon. [APPLAUSE]

michael barbaro