Increase in violent conflict combined with effects of climate crisis make outlook bleak for world’s poorest people, says report

This article is more than 9 months old

This article is more than 9 months old

Attacks on healthcare workers have reached a record high according to a UN report that predicts a “bleak outlook” for the world’s poorest people due to intense armed conflict and the climate emergency.

The number of highly violent conflicts has risen to 41, from 36 in 2018, causing deaths, injuries, significant displacement and hunger, the UN’s global humanitarian overview 2020 report found.

More than 12,000 children were killed or maimed in conflict last year, raising fears of a “lost generation”.

Compliance with international law is declining, while attacks against aid and health workers in areas hit by conflict are putting “millions of people at risk” by denying them care and aid. One in 45 of the world’s population, or 168 million people, will need humanitarian assistance in 2020, the report predicts – the highest number in decades.

On Tuesday, the UN Relief and Works Agency called for increased protection of aid workers in South Sudan following brutal attacks on humanitarian workers in the Maban area of the country. Last week, four health workers fighting the Ebola outbreak were killed and five injured by militia in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where insecurity has hampered efforts to control the second deadliest outbreak of the virus.

For the 2% of the world’s population in need, 2020 would be a difficult year, said Mark Lowcock, the UN’s humanitarian chief, especially after a year when the number of people in need outstripped the organisation’s predictions.

“In 2019, many more people needed humanitarian assistance than we had forecast, largely because of conflicts and extreme climate events,” said the report’s authors.

Yemen is expected to remain the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with 24 million people in need, while the conflict in Syria continues to drive the refugee crisis. Humanitarian needs in DRC, Somalia and South Sudan will remain “exceptionally high”, with other hotspots in Sudan, the Sahel region – where displacement has increased dramatically – Afghanistan, Venezuela and Haiti.

Donor funding of $28.8bn (£22bn) will be needed to enable the UN and its partners to reach 109 million of the most vulnerable people with life saving assistance by 2020, said the report – slightly less than last year’s requirement of $29.7bn.

On current trends, “unless climate change and the root of conflicts are better addressed”, the UN predicts the number of people in need could rise to 200 million by 2022.

Between January and the start of December, the World Health Organization estimates there have been 951 attacks on healthcare facilities and 179 deaths, in 10 countries, compared with 778 attacks and 156 deaths in 2018.

The risk of aid workers being assaulted, shot or kidnapped is growing. Last year brought the highest number of attacks on aid workers on record, and the highest number of deaths since 2013. About 400 aid workers were affected by major violence, with 226 attacks, 131 people killed and 130 kidnapped. National staff were disproportionately impacted, representing 85% of victims and 94% of deaths.

Ebola health workers killed and injured by rebel attack in Congo Read more

Despite the bleak outlook for the world’s poorest, Lowcock said he was confident the humanitarian system was “more effective, better prioritised, more innovative and more inclusive than ever”. As a result, the UN was asking for less money than last year.

Citing examples in Africa, Lowcock said: “In Somalia, for example, early action and a major scale-up of assistance after two failed rains in 2019 meant that 1 million people initially projected to suffer acute hunger were helped out of danger.

“As deadly storms hit southern Africa, early warnings and pre-positioning of aid helped us limit the number of fatalities and the severity of need.

“Our system is also making strides in improving coordination between humanitarian and development assistance to reduce vulnerability and risk, mitigating humanitarian need before it occurs.”