The grandly titled European Union Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) proposed Wednesday by the European Commission is just that: a proposal.

What the EU’s next seven-year budget actually looks like will be governed by the usual EU power dynamics. Now that the Commission has set the goalposts, the European Parliament will try in vain to expand them. National leaders in the European Council will seek to cut, cut, cut — except, of course, for the programs that most benefit their individual countries.

Expect the institutions to work out a compromise sometime in 2019 or 2020. In the meantime, here are the — mostly conservative, mostly male — players you need to watch, starting with the most powerful, below.

1. Carlos Moedas

Role: European commissioner for research and innovation

Affiliation: European People's Party

Nationality: Portuguese

Carlos Moedas — his last name is Portuguese for “coins” — is in charge of the €100 billion of EU money that will do most to shape Europe’s future economic prospects: research and innovation. Moedas is set to be the budget’s big winner and its bellwether. In raw numbers, the research and innovation portion of the new EU budget will increase from €77 billion to €100 billion (a 30 percent increase). When U.K. funding of around €10 billion is deducted from the current EU budget — to allow a like-for-like EU27 comparison — the real increase this time round is about 50 percent. If Moedas manages to keep it through tortuous negotiations, that will be a sign of significant EU budget modernization. Moedas’ role is also different from commissioners with bigger funding lines (agriculture and regional policy): He has a more direct ongoing role in managing the funding, and juggling board-level discussions with Europe’s biggest companies, banks, universities and ministries. Moedas can count French President Emmanuel Macron as an ally on the innovation side, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (a scientist) on the research side. Given the enthusiasm the British government has shown for research cooperation post Brexit, Moedas may also be authoring the template for a close working relationship with the United Kingdom.

2. Mark Rutte

Role: Prime minister of the Netherlands

Affiliation: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe

With Britain out of the EU after March 2019 (which will be crunch time for the next EU budget), the Union’s frugal faction will be led by Mark Rutte. Being Dutch, he may appear to pack a smaller punch than David Cameron, the previous leader of the frugals in the 2013 budget debates. But unlike Cameron, Rutte leads a eurozone country that was also a founding EU member — factors that carry significant symbolic and practical weight in EU discussions. The other factor: Rutte wouldn’t mind replacing Donald Tusk as European Council president, according to those who know him well. Rutte therefore has a double incentive to be an effective force in budget debates: His voters demand it, and his next job may depend on it.

3. Günther Oettinger

Role: European budget commissioner, responsible for proposing the EU Multiannual Financial Framework (2021-2027)

Affiliation: European People's Party

Nationality: German

You expected him to be No. 1, didn’t you? Not so fast. Until now, Oettinger has indeed been the driving force of the next EU budget, but now that his proposal has seen the light of day, his relative power declines. Yes, the Commission will have a seat at the table in final compromise negotiations, and the rest of the EU system will rely on its technical analysis — but Oettinger’s heaviest lifting is now done. Still, you can count on him to continue to toss grenades into the melee: he suddenly floated the idea of an EU plastic tax earlier this year. And who else can whisper in Merkel’s ear about when to hold — and when to fold — in the final stages of negotiations?

4. Nadia Calviño

Role: Director general, European Commission budget department

Affiliation: Unaffiliated

Nationality: Spanish

The director general of the Commission’s budget department, Calviño has been a star at the Commission since her arrival in Brussels in 2006 as the town’s youngest (at 38) deputy director general. When other EU institutions demand more or less cash for EU objectives during budget negotiations, it’s up to Calviño to run the numbers for Oettinger and make a recommendation. An economist and lawyer by training, she told the current class of College of Europe (Bruges) students in November 2017 that her job is “sobering.” Scarred by a series of crises and not enough reserve funds to tap to deal with them, Calviño wants to see a more “agile” budget. Her mantra: listening, and “not only to prime ministers,” she told the students.

5. Jean Arthuis

Role: Chair of European Parliament Budget Committee

Affiliation: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe

Nationality: French

Arthuis will be a player in inter-institutional negotiations on the EU budget and has three big weapons in his arsenal. The first is Emmanuel Macron (Arthuis was one of the French president’s first backers in Brussels); the second is his role as chair of the European Parliament’s Budget Committee; and finally, Arthuis is a former French finance minister. At 73, he’s spoiling for this fight. Unlike many MEPs who used the European Parliament to start their political careers, or who are dumped there by their parties, Arthuis made a deliberate move to be part of this budget process when he stood for election in 2014.

6. Phil Hogan

Role: European commissioner for agriculture and rural development

Affiliation: European People's Party

Nationality: Irish

If there’s anyone facing an uphill battle in the EU budget wars, it’s Phil Hogan. He’s charged with managing the oldest, biggest, most militant EU constituency: its shrinking farming sector. Among national governments and media, it is France who will most often look at the EU budget through the lens of agriculture funding. That hasn’t caused Hogan to shrink his vision or adopt a defensive crouch. Hogan said in April: “In the absence of more money from member states, there will be a cut to the CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) budget. My job, as I see it, is to build the strongest possible coalition to resist the worst of these cuts.” Hogan supports cutting payments to Europe's biggest farms and says protecting small farmers is his priority in coming negotiations. He was born and raised on a family farm in rural Kilkenny in south-east Ireland.

7. The Austrian government

Role: Rotating EU presidency, July to December 2018

Affiliation: European People's Party, and Europe of Nations and Freedoms group

Austria will be holding the EU pen, as holder of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of this year — critical months for EU budget negotiations. If it succeeds in putting EU governments on a path toward consensus, it will be possible to deliver the new EU budget in time for Brexit in March 2019 and the European Parliament election in May 2019. If it fails, the Commission’s already delayed budget timeline will be derailed. Vienna has defined the priorities of its EU presidency as security (particularly the control of illegal immigration), supporting EU competitiveness through digitization, and outreach to Western Balkan countries.

8. Alexander Stubb

Role: Vice president of the European Investment Bank

Affiliation: European People's Party

Nationality: Finnish

The European Investment Bank (EIB) is the EU’s banker, and Alexander Stubb is its glamorous vice president. The EIB may not manage the euro like the European Central Bank, but it has a more important budget role: supplying the EU with tens of billions of euros that national governments don’t want to give it directly. How so? The EIB leverages EU seed money needed for major projects in the European Fund for Strategic Investments, the bloc’s African investment plan and the Connecting Europe Facility. Without all that leveraged finance, the EU budget negotiations would start to resemble a bloodbath as governments and others fight over a shrinking pie. Stubb, a former Finnish prime minister, ex-MEP and potential next Commission president, told POLITICO in February that he intends for the EIB to play a more prominent role as the EU tries to do “more with less” in its next long-term budget. “You have to be realistic. The EU budget is not going to grow, especially after Brexit, so then you’re going to have to come up with different types of ideas of leveraging or getting more bang for the buck or for doing more with less,” he said.

9. Viktor Orbán

Role: Prime minister of Hungary

Affiliation: European People’s Party

All national leaders have veto power over the EU budget, but some vetoes are more equal than others. Just as Mark Rutte will charge hard at any hint of perceived over-spending, Orbán and other leaders who are clashing with Brussels over rule-of-law proceedings will quickly try to block any attempt to make the disbursement of EU funds conditional on how they manage affairs back home. What makes the Hungarian prime minister especially relevant in the discussion is his position inside the biggest EU political family: the European People’s Party. That gives him a voice in the EU’s largest political tent, which needs his votes if it wants to stay the largest.

10. Donald Tusk

Role: European Council president

Affiliation: European People's Party

Nationality: Polish

Donald Tusk has often performed the task of bridging east and west and north and south in the European Council. Some efforts (the Greek bailouts) have been more successful than others (the EU’s migration quota policy). Tusk will have to work his magic again, while having skin in the budget game. The former Polish prime minister may not be running for a third term as European Council president, but he could be angling for another run at high office back home. If he allows himself to be portrayed as cutting funds for Poland, he will hand his domestic political foes a

gift. On the other hand, there’s not a lot of spare cash in the EU bank thanks to Brexit: Something’s got to give.

11. Jan Olbrycht

Role: Member of the European Parliament, co-rapporteur for the MFF

Affiliation: European People's Party

Nationality: Polish

Olbrycht is a specialist in regional policy — one of the biggest slices of the EU budget pie — and spent six years as vice chairman of the Council of European Municipalities and Regions. Regional funds are Poland’s bread and butter when it comes to its EU relationship: The country rakes in more regional subsidies than any other and has used them effectively to modernize. That said, Olbrycht could be the Polish Law and Justice government’s worst nightmare. The country will hold an election in 2019 — and as a member of the opposition Civic Platform and the European Parliament’s co-rapporteur for the budget, Olbrycht has plenty of incentive to make life difficult for Warsaw. He could also play Civic Platform bad cop to Donald Tusk’s good cop, keeping Tusk clean for any return to Polish domestic politics.

12. Isabelle Thomas

Role: Member of the European Parliament, co-rapporteur for the MFF

Affiliation: Socialists and Democrats

Nationality: French

European Socialists used to be seen as co-power brokers in Brussels. While they may often have run second to the European People’s Party in European Parliament elections, they remained an essential force. Thomas’ performance over the next 18 months will help determine if they will continue to be one. The Socialist leadership has been AWOL or ineffective in Parliament. Socialist commissioners — including the regional policy commissioner — have underperformed expectations. Already bumped down to third-largest party in the European Council, the Socialists also face a wipe-out in 2019 European election. Calling for “ambitious reform” of the EU budget in a Socialists and Democrats video, Thomas said she wants an “EU crisis reserve, so we have the funds needed to deal with new issues rather than trying to cover it all with existing funds.” EU governments need to give the institutions more funds if they want Brussels to be a better manager of crises and social challenges, she said.

13. Martin Selmayr

Role: European Commission secretary-general

Affiliation: European People's Party

Nationality: German

Selmayr’s reputation for omnipresence means no EU budget list would be complete without some reference to him. The rule of thumb in Commission corridors is that Selmayr leaves no strategic files untouched. That’s not to say he’s an experienced EU budget hand. During the last negotiations, which lasted from 2011 to 2013, Selmayr was chief-of-staff to Commission Vice President Viviane Reding, responsible for two of the institutions’ smaller departments (communications and justice) and did not play a significant role in the talks. His party colleague and compatriot Günther Oettinger — who recently helped Selmayr secure his job as secretary-general and defended him valiantly in front of angry MEPs — is the Commission secretary-general’s inside track for having a say in every essential budget discussion.

14. Corina Creţu

Role: European commissioner for regional policy

Affiliation: Socialists and Democrats

Nationality: Romanian

Subsidies of €373 billion have been earmarked for the poorer EU regions in the new budget, slightly up on 2014-2020. Despite that massive responsibility, the commissioner in charge of the portfolio had difficulty turning up to work and retaining her staff in the first half of her term, as POLITICO first reported in late 2015. Fast forward to 2018 and Creţu is low-profile on the budget and considered out of the loop on many key discussions. That has created vulnerabilities for those advocating for regional funds. MEPs have been furious at Commission efforts to tie more regional funds to structural economic reforms in Europe’s regions, and a bloc of stakeholders called the #CohesionAlliance was created by regional fund recipients worried they could be eviscerated in the next EU budget.

This article is part of POLITICO’s new coverage of the EU budget, tracking the development of the seven-year Multiannual Financial Framework, and the first EU budget that will face a low or no contribution from the United Kingdom. This coverage includes the Budget Briefing newsletter every Monday afternoon. Email pro@politico.eu to request a complimentary trial.