British policy is not usually transmitted to Brussels through a 700-word text message via a journalist. But Brexit works in wonderful ways – and EU officials are not at all convinced, anyway, that the monologue in question, attributed to Boris Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, is really aimed at them.

On Monday evening, shortly after the EU’s comprehensive point-by-point deconstruction of the British proposals was published by the Guardian, the Spectator’s political editor, James Forsyth, made public a text he had received from a “contact in Number 10” on the state of play.

The No 10 official admitted to Forsyth – who works with Cummings’ wife, Mary Wakefield, at the Spectator – that the talks in Brussels would probably end this week as “[Leo] Varadkar doesn’t want to negotiate”.

Ireland’s prime minister was said to have “gone back on his word” by attacking the British government’s proposals rather than shifting the EU’s position in response to British moves on an all-Ireland regulatory zone for goods.

Varadkar was said to be gambling on a second referendum, and was pulling the strings of the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

“At the end of this week they may say: ‘OK, let’s do a Northern Ireland-only backstop with a time limit’, which is what various players have been hinting at, then we’ll say no, and that will probably be the end,” Forsyth’s Downing Street source wrote.

The text message’s verbose author goes on to claim that the result would be one of two outcomes: no deal on 31 October or a general election, in which the Conservative party morphs into the Brexit party, promising to deliver no deal.

The view in Brussels is that the message was not intended for EU consumption. In part that is because it is riddled with misunderstandings of how the EU works.

In securing the first outcome of a no deal on 31 October, the writer appears to admit there is no legal avenue to avoid the prime minister seeking an extension by 19 October.

The Downing Street source puts his faith in threats. Any member state who acquiesces to such an extension request will go to the “back of the queue” when it comes to future cooperation “both within and outside EU competences”. A mysteriously redacted threat over defence and security is also made.

The problem here is twofold: agreement on an extension will be done by unanimity. There won’t be any member states to pick off. The lesson of the unlikely but steadfast unity of the EU27 on Brexit has not been learned. Perhaps he, or she, is new to the ball game?

The second mistake is to believe that threats over withdrawing security cooperation really have any impact. The UK is a member of Nato. Is Downing Street threatening to undermine that multilateral institution too? The defence of Europe against external threats, including Russia, has always been seen as being in the national interest. Similar threats were made and retracted by Theresa May’s government in 2017 given the pointlessness in making them.

The Downing Street source goes on to suggest that the UK will be a truculent and damaging member state if it remains in the EU beyond 31 October. “Everything to do with ‘duty of sincere cooperation’ will be in the toilet,” the No 10 aide writes.

Unfortunately, for the writer there is very little of great importance until June next year, when the EU’s budget is likely to be put to a vote over which the UK could wield its veto. The UK has never been the easiest member state anyway. Should Johnson seek to frustrate the law of the land on agreeing and enacting the terms of the extension, he will be breaking it. The supreme court and the Scottish court of session has been clear.

Given that it is highly likely that much of this is appreciated in Downing Street, EU sources instead see the text message as yet another play in the blame game so central to Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority in the now inevitable general election.

It is increasingly the view in Brussels that the legal text tabled by Johnson on the Irish border was written for rejection, and this text appears to prove it. It is time for Johnson to shout betrayal, and hope the voters believe him.