The Dems' Project New West has its sights set on Arizona and they say McCain's lead is down to a slim 4 points. Could McCain lose his home state?

Democrats are circulating a poll showing Sen. John McCain losing ground in his home state of Arizona, an ominous sign for his beleaguered campaign as state after state turns blue.

Project New West, which aims to build the Democratic Party in the Intermountain West, says the Republican leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the Grand Canyon State, 48 percent to 44 percent.


The pollsters call that a “dramatic shift” from a survey they took in mid-September, which had McCain ahead by 14 points, 54 percent to 40 percent.

“Bad News for McCain: Presidential Contest in Arizona has Closed in Arizona And McCain Now Leads By Just 4 Points,” says a memo from pollsters Andrew Myers of Myers Research and Strategic Services and Lisa Grove of Grove Research.

The poll of 600 likely Arizona voters was taken Thursday and Friday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

McCain has represented Arizona in the House or Senate since 1982.

In 2000, President Bush won Arizona by 6 percentage points. In 2004, he widened that to 11 percentage points.

Most polling has showed McCain winning his home state easily. The Real Clear Politics average of Arizona polls gives McCain an 11.3-point advantage over Obama.

The McCain campaign did not respond to requests for comment.