The following tables display our predicted probabilities for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row of the East Region table, our models give Villanova a 97% chance of beating Mount Saint Mary’s (and, conversely, Mount Saint Mary’s a 3% chance of beating Villanova). We have more content on the way, including 1st round point spreads and totals, as well as a look at how our numbers see the entire tournament field.

For more on our methodology, click here.

East Region

Seed 1 / Team 1 Seed 2 / Team 2 Team 1 Prob Team 2 Prob 1 Villanova 16 Mt St M 0.97 0.03 8 Wisconsin 9 Va-Tech 0.74 0.26 5 Virginia 12 NC-Wilm. 0.54 0.46 4 Florida 13 ETSU 0.62 0.38 6 SMU 11 USC* 0.62 0.39 3 Baylor 14 New-Mex 0.74 0.26 7 South-Car 10 Marq. 0.70 0.30 2 Duke 15 Troy 0.84 0.16

West Region

Seed 1 / Team 1 Seed 2 / Team 2 Team 1 Prob Team 2 Prob 1 Gonzaga 16 SDSU 0.79 0.21 8 NW 9 Vandy 0.82 0.18 5 ND 12 Princeton 0.99 0.01 4 WVU 13 Bucknell 0.85 0.15 6 Maryland 11 Xavier 0.27 0.73 3 Florida St 14 FGCU 0.50 0.50 7 St Marys 10 VCU 0.49 0.51 2 Arizona 15 North Da 0.99 0.01

Midwest Region

Seed 1 / Team 1 Seed 2 / Team 2 Team 1 Prob Team 2 Prob 1 Kansas 16 UC Davis 0.77 0.23 8 Miami 9 Mich St 0.43 0.57 5 Iowa St 12 Nevada 0.51 0.49 4 Purdue 13 Vermont 0.30 0.70 6 Creighton 11 Rhode Is 0.77 0.23 3 Oregon 14 Iona 0.90 0.10 7 Michigan 10 Okla. St 0.94 0.06 2 Louisville 15 Jax. St 0.90 0.10

South Region