Image Courtesy of Universal Pictures

2019’s first event-level horror release is imminent with this weekend’s domestic launch of Jordan Peele’s highly anticipated follow-up project to Get Out. Will Us break out in similar fashion?

Us

Opening Weekend Range: $45 – 65 million

PROS:

Following hugely popular turns in various comedic projects, Jordan Peele proved to be a filmmaking revelation as the writer/director of Get Out. That film earned widespread critical and audience acclaim as it broke genre and cultural barriers, earning $176 million domestically off its $33.4 million opening weekend.

The first trailer was strongly received after debuting on Christmas, earning more than 13 million views on the first day from Peele’s Twitter announcement post. It has since amassed over 106 million global views, according to Universal.

Buzz out of SXSW amplified anticipation for this release with acclaim very similar to that of Peele’s previous film. Us currently stands at an exceptional 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes with 110 critics’ reviews.

Fandango announced earlier this week that pre-sales are outstripping the trends of A Quiet Place and Get Out.

On Trailer Impact, Us stood at 76 percent Average Positive Interest entering this week, comparable to Halloween (76 percent) and ahead of The Nun (64 percent) entering their weeks of release.

Traditional industry tracking similarly indicates awareness and interest levels similar to or ahead of Split, Get Out, A Quiet Place, The Nun, and Halloween.

The absence of a horror title appealing to a variety of audiences since last October creates a wide open market for this to break out over the weekend.

The number of filmmakers to generate significant awareness of their name alone after one movie in the horror genre is a very short list, but Peele is arguably in the company of M. Night Shyamalan post-The Sixth Sense and James Wan post-Insidious. Shyamalan’s follow-up (Unbreakable) earned a $46 million five-day Thanksgiving start in 2000, while Wan’s The Conjuring bowed to $41.9 million in July 2013.

CONS:

Though not necessarily a “negative” point, it’s important to consider that Peele’s following has created a greater sense of urgency for fans to see this on opening weekend than is generally true of most original/non-sequel horror films. As such, that could skew any pre-sales comparisons to other original movies.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $123 million. That would represent a 13 percent increase from the same weekend last year when Pacific Rim Uprising ($28.1 million) unseated Black Panther from first place. Sherlock Gnomes ($10.6 million), Paul, Apostle of Christ ($5.2 million), and Midnight Sun ($4.0 million) also debuted as part of an overall $108.7 million top ten frame.

Weekend Forecast

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Film Distributor 3-Day Forecast Projected Domestic Total through March 24, 2019 Us Universal $54,000,000 $54,000,000 Captain Marvel Disney / Marvel $35,300,000 $321,400,000 Wonder Park Paramount $9,800,000 $30,000,000 Five Feet Apart Lionsgate / CBS $7,400,000 $24,800,000 How to Train Your Dragon 3 Universal $6,700,000 $146,000,000 A Madea Family Funeral Lionsgate $3,500,000 $65,000,000 No Manches Frida 2 Pantelion $2,000,000 $6,900,000 The LEGO Movie 2 Warner Bros. $1,600,000 $103,800,000 Captive State Focus Features $1,400,000 $5,800,000 Alita: Battle Angel Fox $1,100,000 $83,900,000

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report