RIP Flip Saunders

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-7. There is a lot of optimism surrounding the talent on the team, particularly the progression of Andrew Wiggins into a creator the likes of which has never been seen in Minnesota. The other obvious cause for optimism is the development and discovery of the talent of Karl-Anthony Towns. Bill Simmons has said that KAT is a top ten trade asset right now. I wanted to look into the team’s numbers to see if I could find areas for improvement, areas for concern, and areas of strength. The stats below come from NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com and are current as of November 19, 2015.

On the surface, things look to be progressing pretty nicely. The Wolves are 7th in points per game, 13th in pace, and 12th in offensive rating. The squad is getting to the tin, ranking 1st in the league in points on drives at 82%, which signals that their athleticism is translating to run outs, and layups and free throw opportunities in the half court. Those buckets on drives are fueling the offense, and are effective enough to conceal some pretty damning statistics in other areas. The Timberwolves pass on drive percentage is worst in the league, and they are 9th worst in potential assists. While it’s great to look to score on drives, the club’s 8th best field goal percentage on drives indicates that attempting to score is coming at the expense of making an interior pass, and generating an easier basket. The #1 ranking in getting points on drives is exceptional, without a doubt. However it does seem that based on the numbers, there are missed opportunities to pass to an open shooter, or a teammate in better position to score. Furthermore the team is 7th worst in the league in drives per game. There needs to be a greater emphasis on driving to the basket.

Of the most troubling things I came across while looking at the team stats on NBA.com and the individual stats on BR is the fact that Zach LaVine (27.3%) and Kevin Martin (25.4%) have higher usage rates than KAT (24.3%). Martin and Towns have spent 66 minutes on the floor together, LaVine and Towns have spent 88 minutes on the floor together, and the three are not among the most used groups in terms of minutes played together. In other words, it is unlikely that LaVine and Martin’s usage comes at the expense of KAT’s. Nevertheless, there are only four regular players (more than 100 minutes played) with Player Efficiency Ratings higher than league average: KAT (PER = 21.5), Rubio (19.5), LaVine (18.4), and Wiggins (17.0). These facts together imply that Martin’s usage rate is a problem. He is not an efficient player, and he is being used at a high rate. An easy way to improve the offense would be to involve Towns more often.

The Wolves are 21st in effective field goal percentage. That shouldn’t be breaking news, as there aren’t any reliable outside shooters on the roster. Right at the moment, the squad is the 8th worst three point shooting team in the league. Pups are sitting at 38% shooting on catch and shoot opportunities, and 30.6%, third worst in the league on catch and shoot 3s. That is having an impact all over the floor. Defenses don’t have to respect the three point line, and as such are able to focus their attention on help defense, especially in the paint. That defensive focus by the opposition is directly responsible for the Pups 5th worst in the league shooting percentage on touches in the post, and touches in the paint. It’s tough to get 1 on 1 matchups in the paint, if help defenders are not afraid to leave their assignments on the outside. Additionally, the Timberwolves rank 1st and 2nd respectively in seconds per touch and dribbles per touch. The time spent holding the ball is allowing defenders time to get set up and be more effective.

At the end of the day, there are a lot of positives. A 5-2 record on the road is a solid start for a team that won 16 games last season. However, there is a ton of room to improve on the offensive end. More passing, and more motion in the offensive sets should help.

Some other stats that jumped out at me while I was researching this piece in no particular order:

9 th in assist to pass % – when they pass, those passes turn into assists at a pretty high rate

in assist to pass % – when they pass, those passes turn into assists at a pretty high rate 16 th in contested REB % (contested REB/Total REB) – the team is about average in fighting for all rebounds

in contested REB % (contested REB/Total REB) – the team is about average in fighting for all rebounds 8 th worst in contested OREB % (contested OREB/Total OREB) – the team needs to fight harder for offensive rebounds

worst in contested OREB % (contested OREB/Total OREB) – the team needs to fight harder for offensive rebounds 13 th in Pull Up FG% – pull ups are more effective than catch and shoot

in Pull Up FG% – pull ups are more effective than catch and shoot 9 th worst in Elbow shooting % – especially when those catch and shoot opportunities are on the elbow

worst in Elbow shooting % – especially when those catch and shoot opportunities are on the elbow 12 th worst in opponent FG% – the perimeter defense has not been good. This is not KAT’s fault.

worst in opponent FG% – the perimeter defense has not been good. This is not KAT’s fault. 16th in distance travelled on offense – more motion is needed on offense!