You guys hear me talk of “variance” a LOT. Honestly, it’s not a drum I will ever stop beating. It’s very important you both recognize it and deal with it when it rears it’s ugly head. Variance is a huge factor in daily fantasy games, especially baseball.

I live in St. Louis, land of baseball. But, I am also a hockey fan. A Blues fan to be exact. This weekend was a decent opportunity to share some “variance” with you, so bear with me. When it comes hockey, I feel more like a Chicago Cubs fan than a Blackhawks fan. It’s funny how linked the cities of St. Louis and Chicago can be. And, there’s extra emphasis on it this week with both St. Louis teams playing Chicago teams.

When it comes to the Blues, I’m used to a little hard luck. I’m used to seeing odd bounces. I’m used to seeing bad breaks. I’m almost…..not I said almost…..at peace with horrible variance. But, I’m a survivor. I’m still here and I’m still a fan. I’m still watching games just hoping someday it will turn around (see the Cubs parallel here?). Yesterday, I saw a little. I saw a Chicago goal somehow stay out of the net by hitting not one goal post but BOTH! Ring, ring and out it came……crazy stuff. I saw the Blues put a silly shot on goal that hit a leg, then bounced randomly off the ice and hop up and over the goalie’s shoulder and into the net to tie the game. These two weird bounces usually seem to go against the Blues. Honestly, this is just variance. Two very random occurrences that really were no more than crazy bounces of a puck doing things it doesn’t usually do. So random, in fact, it’s worth noting because of it’s oddity….or outlier status.

However, both bounces had a profound effect on the game. This stuff happens in your daily fantasy sports all the time. You might have hitters come up to bat continually with runners on base and fail. You might watch your power hitter smash a ball that the wind holds up enough to allow some spectacular catch at the wall. You might see your line drive heading into the 3rd base corner snared by a diving 3rd baseman. You might even see something dumber like a grounder heading for the shortstop and a sure double play wind up hitting your pitcher in the ankle, bouncing past everyone into the outfield, AND knocking your pitcher from the game because it hurt him in the process. This stuff happens. It’s variance.

Just like my Blues, perhaps your Cubs, you just have to learn to roll with this stuff and realize often times when it rains, it pours. If you are a sports fan, you’ve seen plenty of this happen before. Guess what? It’s not over. It’s not going to stop. When focused on daily fantasy, though, we look at everything through such a microscope that we can lose sight of the natural variance. Just realize the only way to solve variance is to survive long enough for it to swing back around in your favor. It will. Just manage your bankroll with discipline until it does. Now, let’s get into a new week of MLB and see who we like today.

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**In case I haven’t mentioned it, and you don’t know where to find the DFS ARMY, just look HERE. We are a growing community of soldiers dedicated to teaching YOU how to build better LUs through education, not selling player picks. Sure, we have premium content if you want a little extra depth, but we don’t have anything lined up for MLB until at least May. So, get in while it’s a free-for-all and see if you like us. You can follow us on Twitter with @ffootballgeek, @dfsarmy, or by hashing our LU clubs….. #50Club for NHL, #300Club for NBA, #Club200 for MLB and see the lineups we’ve taught our platoon to build. Also, #Learn2Build is another great one we use.**

First, an overall view of our games today, where they are played, Vegas view, run line, relevant weather and start times.

Home and away teams are pretty simple. Pitchers tend to pitch better at home.

Weather matters huge in MLB. Green is good, red is bad. Anything over a “5” should give you pause in rostering a pitcher. Hitters aren’t as affected, but warming up and shutting down and warming up and shutting down isn’t something managers like to do to their pitchers. Any delays will shorten the “lifespan” of your pitcher and affect the opportunity he has to score you points. A “0” indicates a dome team.

Favored team according to Vegas. Vegas P gives the moneyline and by how much the favored team is favored. The bigger the number, the better our pitchers has a shot at earning the win. I typically look for a number larger than 150. Vegas B shows how many combined runs Vegas is projecting the hitters to score. For hitters, the bigger the better. For pitchers, the smaller the better. The last thing you want is your pitcher on the mound in a slugfest.

Park Factor is a rating assembled by combining historical numbers of runs and home runs scored over the past few seasons. This rating is expressed in comparison to the “average” ballpark. Average is a score of 100. The greater the difference from average, the more the park favors hitters (greater than 100) or pitchers (less than 100). This number is not foolproof, though. For example, if we assembled a team of weak hitters and had them play half their games in a great ballpark, we would undoubtedly see a suppressed ballpark factor rating. But, it does give us a great idea on a given slate where we may/may not see runs scored. Use in conjunction with the Vegas B column. If you see a green number in both columns, you can consider rostering hitters from that game.

In researching pitchers, I want a heavy favorite in Vegas, a red number in Vegas B, and good weather. I also want to see a ballpark that’s bad for hitters, if possible. That’s really about it to narrowing down my list of choices for who I’ll start as a pitcher.

In researching hitters, I want a green Vegas B number, good weather (but it doesn’t have to be perfect), and a hitter’s park to play in, if possible. But, mostly I want terrible pitching on the mound. This is indicated by high run totals (green Vegas B) and even the Vegas P column because a team that is heavily favored “can be” facing terrible pitching. But, that’s getting a bit specific for this quick-hitting column. That simple graphic can really tell you a lot in 30 seconds.

The 7 games on the Main Slate tonight are my focus today. If you are compelled to play the BOS/TOR game, understand you won’t have weather or lineup information for any other game before the BOS game starts. This can be dangerous in players not starting. I don’t typically play these types of slates.

NYM @ PHI – This game is for pitching only. Syndergaard is the overwhelmingly obvious choice at pitcher on the slate today. He is your cash chalk without a doubt……and the only place I’m personally looking. If you must gamble in a GPP, you can certainly look to Eickhoff. He has a nice K/9 and the Mets are certainly striking out right now. Vegas projects this to be lower scoring, so it’s not guaranteed Syndergaard (Thor) gets the win, either. I’m banking on him going 6+ innings and grabbing 6-10 K’s. I think a 40 point floor is more than reasonable him given the start he’s off to and playing Philly in a park that leans towards favoring pitchers. I’m obviously off the bats.

Elite – None

Secondary – None

COL @ CIN – Here is where I’m looking to the bats. This ballpark gives up homeruns like my dentist gives out toothbrushes. Colorado is certainly rolling better than Cincinnati as of now, but really all bats are in play here. I’m focused on who has been hitting best over the last week or so, though. Look to CIN for fill-ins when you need some cap space.

Elite – CGonzalez, NArenado

Secondary – Parra, Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Suarez (GPP)

WAS @ MIA – Jose Fernandez is a decent GPP pivot off Syndergaard for sure. But, I’m focusing more on MIA bats in this one. I don’t know I’m thinking anyone is truly elite right now, but I’m not afraid to roster Marlins. Harper is going well for the Nats, but there is softer pitching to pick on today making him a secondary play, but an elite GPP play imo. Stanton is always in play, but isn’t super hot right now.

Elite – Yelich, Bour,

Secondary – DMurphy, Harper, Prado

LAA @ CWS – I’m not opposed to Rodon, but I’m not intrigued by anyone enough to really go into them. I will say that CWS is a stadium that favors right handed power bats more than left. You can certainly look there for hitters today.

Elite – YEscobar, Calhoun, Melky Cabrera, BLawrie

Secondary – Frazier, AGarcia, Pujols, Trout

MIL @ MIN – I may regret this, but if I’m looking for a really sneaky GPP play, I’m looking at Phil Hughes. He carries a decent K/9 so far this season and MIL loves to swing and miss. This one is a real long shot though because usually we pick on Hughes and the Brew Crew could touch him up in a big way. If this was in MIL, there’s no way I’d make this call, but MIN isn’t a hitters park we look to target.

Elite – CCarter (odd that he’s elite when I told you I kind of like Hughes, but it all depends on how you are building your LU), Plouffe

Secondary – Mauer, Braun, Santana

CHC @ STL – This is an odd game. Lackey and Heyward return to the city that made them overpaid. You’d think I’d be on Lackey, but the Cardinal bats are so hot I’m afraid as hell to pitch against them…..and so should be Lackey. He might want to wear a cage on his helmet or put up the L-net so he can let his pitch go and run behind something for protection. I’m honestly rostering both sets of bats in this one. Mike Leake is a contact pitcher and the Cubbies are making contact. This will be an entertaining game to watch at the very least. One stat for Lackey, right now he is giving up a wOBA of .396, to lefties it’s .541…..fire up the lefty redbirds.

Elite – Hazelbaker, Diaz, Carpenter, Soler, Bryant

Secondary – Holliday, Grichuk, Moss, Russell, even Molina

ARI @ SFG – This one isn’t doing much for me honestly. It has some bats in it, but I typically don’t look to roster bats in AT&T Park in night games. The dense air makes it hard for the ball to leave the yard. That said, lefty bats love them some Jake Peavy. But, Vegas thinks he will get the win here. I’m kind of focused on other games myself.

Elite – Belt, Tomas, Pagan

Secondary – Span, Pence, Ahmed

I think the pitchers are obvious for me – Syndergaard >>>>>>>>>>>> anything else

Stacks – COL, STL, CHC (remember, many other bats are playable, but these are teams I’m stacking)

Also, a link to the stats for today from Keith. You will see a lot of my specific numbers came from this sheet.

Stat Sheet