Barrister and former winter Olympian Zali Steggall was the third independent to throw her hat in the ring in Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah last weekend, while businessman Oliver Yates is running against Liberal deputy leader Josh Frydenberg in his seat of Kooyong.

Julia Banks has joined the growing number of independent candidates, running against Greg Hunt in Flinders.

These new candidates are part of a growing trend of independents popping up to challenge conservative MPs in both urban and rural seats which have traditionally voted for the Coalition in conditions which are perfect for independent challenges.

It’s always hard to predict how an independent will go, but this year will be a good opportunity for independents to try their luck in seats that the Liberal and National parties have traditionally considered safe.

Tony Abbott polled 52% of the primary vote in Warringah in 2016, while Josh Frydenberg managed 58% in Kooyong and Greg Hunt polled 52% in Flinders.

A successful independent will need to do two things: they’ll need to push the Liberal candidate below 50% of the primary vote. In practice, since not all preferences will flow to the independent, they’d need to push their primary opponent down to around 45%.

This independent would then need to achieve a high enough primary vote to make it to the final count (which usually means coming in the top two, although in rare cases a candidate can win from third), and then getting sufficient preferences from other candidates to win a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote.

This is the way that other prominent independents like Kerryn Phelps and Cathy McGowan won their seats. Both Phelps and McGowan polled fewer primary votes than their Liberal opponent at their first election, but won off the back of preferences.

There is strong evidence to suggest that these sitting Liberal MPs should be worried about a drop in support. The party has lost ground in national polls, and local seat polls tell a similar story. uComms polls from Flinders and Warringah put Greg Hunt on 37% of the primary vote and Tony Abbott on 39% – both of which would be low enough to allow an independent to win.

Successful independents have often won when the local MP is relatively unpopular, as in McGowan’s victory over Sophie Mirabella in the Victorian seat of Indi in 2013, which could point to a potential path to an independent victory in Abbott’s seat of Warringah, amongst other seats.

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The weak position of the Liberal/National government will boost the stocks of independents in traditionally safe Liberal seats, where you wouldn’t expect Labor to be competitive.

The Nationals have historically lost seats to independents in rural areas, such as in Calare, New England and Lyne in regional New South Wales, as well as a larger number of seats at state elections.

There is also a history of Liberal seats in wealthy urban electorates going to independents. Independent MP Ted Mack held the federal seat of North Sydney in the early 1990s, and independents held the NSW state seats of Manly and Pittwater as recently as 2007.

The Liberal Party’s difficulties in seats such as Kooyong and Warringah were shown up in the Wentworth by-election and in similar electorates at the Victorian state election, which saw larger swings in some wealthier inner-urban Liberal electorates.

These trends appear to be linked to the removal of Malcolm Turnbull, which was a symbol of the Liberal Party’s shift to the right, particularly on social issues and climate change. The “yes” vote in the marriage postal survey was over 70% in both electorates, which were some of the highest “yes” votes in the country.

The government will not just be worrying about its inner urban seats. The NSW state government has lost the regional seats of Orange and Wagga Wagga to a Shooters candidate and an independent candidate in by-elections since 2016, while fending off other close races. They will be concerned about independent challenges in regional electorates at the March state election.



Former independent MP Rob Oakeshott has already announced that he will run for the NSW north coast seat of Cowper.

While an independent challenge is always an uphill battle, this looks like a good moment for challenges in Liberal and Nationals seats. The government is unpopular, and according to polls is likely to lose the election. It shouldn’t come as a big shock if some of these conservative seats look to an independent at the upcoming election.