The recall motion against Kaohsiung mayor and former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu 韓國瑜 moved into its final stage on Friday as the Central Election Committee (CEC) set the recall vote date for June 6—a date recall supporters promptly branded as “D-day,” with the “D” standing for “dismiss.”

However, with Han’s lawyers vowing to appeal a ruling by the Administrative High Court on Friday—which blocked a motion to stop the recall—it remains to seen how the recall attempt will pan out in the time of an epidemic, not to mention the damage that may be wrought on the KMT and Han’s political future should the recall vote pass.

The attempt to recall Han has been led by a coalition of civic groups including WeCare Kaohsiung, Citizens Mowing and Reset Kaohsiung, with support from the Taiwan Statebuilding and New Power parties.

On June 27, following Han’s nomination to serve as the KMT presidential candidate, Aaron Yin 尹立 of WeCare officially launched a campaign to recall Han from the mayor’s office. Six months of campaigning culminated in close to half a million people taking to the streets of Kaohsiung to protest against a mayor who they regarded as having abandoned the city to pursue his political ambitions.

The initial stage, which required 1% of the Kaohsiung electorate to petition for a recall, was handed in on December 26, a year and a day after Han took office. The second stage, which required signatures from a further 228,000 supporters within 60 days, was passed comfortably.

In an interview with Ketagalan Media in February, Yin expressed concerns about the neutrality of the Kaohsiung Election Committee—which is headed by a deputy mayor, nominated by Han, who also stands to lose his position should the recall be successful.

“At the end of [the] second stage, we had received over 560,000 petitions,” Yin told Ketagalan Media on April 14. “After considering the time and efficiency of checking each one, we submitted 400,000 in advance. Among those we submitted, almost 380,000 [were approved], and this is the result after Kaohsiung Election Committee’s ‘extraordinarily strict’ examination.”

The rejection margin might in part be explained by the necessity of the election commission to reject any petitions signed by those whose signatures were collected in the first stage. Strict data protection laws in Taiwan prevent the civic groups from recording which petitions were counted in the first stage, so the burden of discounting crossovers falls to the election commission.

Yin described the second stage as a “tsunami of citizens signing the petitions” which he believes Han was not expecting.

Indeed—with a turnout threshold of around 571,000 votes in favor, along with a simple majority, required for the recall to pass—the outlook for Han might best be described as unfavorable.

Han’s lawyers announced their intention to effectively seek an injunction against the recall motion on April 8. The next day, the Kaohsiung Election Committee announced that the second stage petitions had been submitted to the CEC. The move was met with derision by recall supporters on the WeCare Facebook page. The supporters referred to a recall campaign video from Lunar New Year which depicted Han flipping the table after losing a game of mahjong.

The application for the injunction—which largely revolved around the claim that collecting petitions for Han’s recall prior his completing a year in office was in violation of the Civil Servants Election and Recall Act, and therefore violated Han’s rights —was turned down by the Administrative Court on Friday morning, with the judge ruling that Han’s lawyers had failed to demonstrate a need for urgency for an injunction and that the regular procedures being followed by the CEC were sufficient.

This marks the first time that a subject of a recall vote has attempted to resort to the Administrative Court to prevent a recall. Prior to reforms in November 2016, recall votes required 50% of the electorate to cast a vote with a simple majority voting in favor for the recall to pass. This lowered the likelihood a recall vote would meet the turnout threshold. As a result, most politicians did not bother to submit a defense as permitted by the governing act—as was the case when Han was subject to a (failed) recall motion in 1994 while serving as a legislator for then Taipei county.

Since the 2016 reform, however, the turnout threshold has been dropped to 25% voting in favor of recall. In the two recall votes held since the reform, one, against New Power Party legislator Huang Kuo-chang 黃國昌, achieved 27.75% turnout. However, the recall failed—only 19.1% of the electorate voted in favor of recalling Huang—and the legislator remained in office.

Dafydd Fell, director of the Center of Taiwan Studies at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), described Han’s attempt to challenge the recall vote using legal methods as “not surprising as polls seem to be suggesting he would be recalled even if there is a relatively low turnout.”

“Han’s decision to first seek the KMT nomination for presidential candidate so soon after being elected meant that it was inevitable he would alienate a large section of the Kaohsiung electorate, including many that actually voted for him in 2018,” Fell said.

How the KMT will handle the recall vote remains to be seen. However, as Fell noted, the party is “in a difficult position,” not least because during Han’s election campaign many of his ardent fans, known colloquially as the Han Army, signed up as KMT party members.

“After the defeat [the party] wants to look like it’s learning from defeat and making a new start,” Fell said. “The recall vote serves to continue the 2020 election, making it harder for the KMT to work on rebranding itself after its 2020 defeat, to convince voters it really is learning lessons of defeat.”

“But Han has a core of passionate supporters and the KMT can’t risk alienating them either.”

Concerns were raised by various parties, including Han’s legal team, regarding the mechanics of holding a vote during the ongoing COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, as it may endanger the residents of Kaohsiung.

The CEC announced several extraordinary measures in line with epidemic prevention measures on Friday, including disinfecting the voting booths and providing a separate booth for any voter found to be running a fever.

The civic groups are also mindful of the effects of campaigning ahead of the vote on epidemic prevention methods. Yin highlighted that, of the four campaign leaders, two are doctors, and that he completed his own master’s dissertation on SARS.

“We are thoroughly aware of how important the precautions [against COVID-19] are,” Yin said. “Therefore, we will plan and act in advance, using easy and clear pictures and words for citizens to understand and follow what measures should be taken during voting, [according to] a more strict standard [than usually necessary].”

As for Han’s political future, the chance for him to resign his position without suffering repercussions has passed. According to Article 92 of the Civil Servants Election and Recall Act, the subject of a recall vote may not stand as a candidate for the same kind of position within four years should the recall motion be adopted or should the subject resign once the final stage is in process.

Han’s campaign to present himself as a mayor who takes his job seriously can be seen on his Facebook page, which has been awash with videos of him holding one-on-one interviews with key workers, visiting farmers and brandishing pineapples, and highlighting the progress of public repair and infrastructure works.

Despite these efforts, however, Han’s attempt to avoid censure through recourse to the Administrative Court may backfire, squandering the sympathy of voters on the fence in Kaohsiung come June 6 should his appeal to foil the process fail.

Above: Reset Kaohsiung released a recall campaign video over Lunar New Year riffing on the catchy seasonal song “Gongxi Ni” and Han Kuo-yu’s alleged fondness for mahjong.

Update (April 18, 2020): A previous version of this article did not clarify the turnout requirements needed for a recall vote to pass. In Taiwan, a recall measure must gain a simple majority vote, while also having at least 25% of the electorate vote in favor of a recall, for the measure to pass.

(Cover photo via Han Kuo-yu / Facebook)