Rookie candidate Caroline Mulroney has raised more than $700,000 in her bid to succeed Patrick Brown as Progressive Conservative leader, according to an internal campaign memo.

While most Tory insiders agree former MPP Christine Elliott is leading the March 10 contest followed by ex-Toronto city councillor Doug Ford, Mulroney’s camp believes she is closing in.

“This is a true three-way race — our riding-by-riding voter modelling shows that Caroline is registering close to 35 per cent of first ballot support,” says the confidential missive by Mulroney campaign guru Derek Vanstone, a prominent federal and provincial Conservative operative.

“Caroline is the leading second-ballot choice for an overwhelming number of Elliott and Ford voters,” noted Vanstone in his three-page letter to Mulroney endorsers penned Tuesday, the day after Brown abandoned his leadership bid.

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“While you can use this information to inform your calls with your local supporters and in our outreach to Patrick Brown supporters, please do not share copies of this memo,” he added.

“We have now raised more than $700,000 from more than 2,000 donors.”

That is believed to be the most of any candidate. Fundraising tallies from the others were not immediately available Wednesday.

Mulroney, the businesswoman daughter of former prime minister Brian Mulroney and a first-time candidate in York-Simcoe, is stepping up her pitch as leadership hopefuls debate Wednesday night in Ottawa.

Online voting begins Friday and concludes on March 8 with the winner announced March 10 at a party convention in Markham.

Caroline Mulroney says she talked to her mother before entering the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race. The daughter of former prime minister Brian Mulroney sought advice on the impact of political life on a family. (The Canadian Press)

“The people of Ontario want change, and Caroline is the best leader positioned to do that,” wrote Vanstone.

“She has a clean record and carries no baggage. Her growth over the last three weeks has been tremendous, and she is getting stronger every day. Even the media are reporting on her growth as a candidate and in her ability to deliver a message.”

The political newcomer generated headlines last week when she urged Brown — who resigned on Jan. 25 amid allegations of sexual impropriety — to quit the race for his old job.

But her campaign concedes the bilingual mother of four is probably not the front-runner.

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“This is a three-way race. One where it is a close race between first and third. However, this race is really coming down to two choices, Caroline or Elliott. Only one of the two of them (can) reach the 50 per cent required to win the race,” wrote Vanstone.

“We believe that Elliott’s support is less committed. Some are viewing her as the default choice; but a reluctance to engage on any of the issues in this election is slowly draining that support,” the campaign czar said.

“Ford has strong support and is likely to benefit from the second-choice support of the Granic voters,” he said, referring to social conservative activist Tanya Granic Allen, who is seen as a long shot.

“But we also know there is no scenario where he can hit 50 per cent of the vote. Very few Brown supporters have gone to the Ford camp and his ability to grow is very limited. The only two candidates who have a large enough potential vote pool to win this race are Caroline and Elliott.”

Vanstone pointed out that “Caroline’s second-ballot support goes overwhelmingly to Elliott, just as Elliott’s second-ballot support goes overwhelmingly to Caroline.”

“Our goal is to finish ahead of Christine Elliott on the first ballot. If we can achieve that then our likelihood of winning is very high. Given a choice between Caroline or Ford, the Elliott vote breaks overwhelmingly our way.”

But there is pressure on the first-time political candidate as she takes the stage in Ottawa on Wednesday night against seasoned veterans Elliott and Ford and the energetic Granic Allen.

“She needs to perform well at the debate,” acknowledged Vanstone.

With an election set for June 7, Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are closely watching the Conservative race.

While they would have preferred to run against a party led by the wounded Brown — who now sits as an Independent MPP and is vowing to clear his name — they are relishing the chance to take on Ford, the bombastic older brother of the late former crack-smoking Toronto mayor Rob Ford.

There is less enthusiasm in the Liberal ranks to face off against Elliott or Mulroney, though the governing party sees weaknesses in both candidates.

Speaking on condition of anonymity in order to discuss strategy, one senior Liberal pointed out that Elliott has badly lost the PC leadership twice before — including to Brown in 2015 — so she has hardly an invincible political force.

And they believe Mulroney’s lack of experience, the fact she is a dual Canadian-American citizen, and the potentially polarizing presence of her father could help their re-election chances in June.

About Caroline Mulroney

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