On the eve of 2014 elections, most opinion polls indicated that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was poised to win around 200 to 220 seats on its own and around 240 to 250 seats as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

One of the defining aspects of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections for the BJP was the campaign momentum it built up during the multi-phase elections and consequent favourable ‘late swing’, resulting in an outcome that surpassed all initial estimates with BJP winning 282 seats on its own.

The campaign momentum manifested in the steep jump in turnout from 58.2 per cent in 2009 to 66.4 per cent in 2014, which was the highest ever turnout recorded in any Lok Sabha election in India. Psephologically, it was deduced that the marginal vote from the increase in turnout overwhelmingly went in favour of the BJP and helped in moving the needle decisively in its favour with the party polling 17.2 crore votes up from 7.9 crore votes it polled in 2009.

We are now approaching the end of 2019 Lok Sabha election campaign trail, and it would be interesting to analyse the insights that the campaign has thrown up.

The 2019 Modi Campaign

Like in 2014, the ‘mega’ Modi rallies continue to be the cornerstone of the BJP campaign in this election. It is estimated that in a typical Modi rally, there are anywhere between 1 lakh to 3 lakh attendees, primarily from the constituency in which the rally is being held and from one or two constituencies nearby. The essential thrust of these rallies is to pump up the enthusiasm quotient of the committed workers and supporters as well as present a strong option to vote for those yet to decide.

In addition, most of the Modi rallies are telecast live on Internet channels as well as covered by the national media that beams them directly into homes of people across the country. Very often, sound bites from the Modi rallies help set in narratives which become subject matter of intense discussion on television, print and social media.

The Modi rallies can be broadly classified into two categories. First category is about rallies which take place during the build-up phase of the election. Such rallies aim to essentially flag off the campaign in various states and activate the state party machinery for the election. In total, there were 46 rallies in the build-up phase held between January to first week of March, covering 21 states and union territories.

The second category of rallies are those held during the active election phase, which aim at giving a final push to the electoral prospects of the party in the constituency in which the rally is being held and in constituencies nearby. Such rallies have taken place from the last week of March and will continue until the end of the seventh phase of the election. Such rallies charge up and motivate party workers, leading to better mobilisation of voters on the voting day.

Typically, a Modi rally is held about three to 10 days prior to the polling in the target constituency to ensure that the enthusiasm generated from the rally does not dissipate. From a psephological standpoint, it is well established that enthusiasm to vote, even for the voters with clear preferences, is critical in swinging the results.

The table below gives a breakup of Modi’s rallies state/region wise in the election phase from 28 March onwards.