Australians are deeply worried the Abbott government is underestimating the importance of climate change, new polling shows, as cabinet debates crucial long-term targets for greenhouse gas reductions.

The annual polling by the Climate Institute thinktank reveals Australians overwhelmingly support wind and solar energy – as the Coalition seeks to limit support for both – and see it as inevitable that coal-fired power stations will have to be phased out and replaced.

But at the same time, almost half those surveyed (47%) think Labor’s carbon policies will “just increase electricity prices and not do much about pollution”. Labor has not announced a costed or detailed policy but has said it will reintroduce an emissions trading scheme and aim for 50% renewable energy by 2030.

Federal cabinet will on Monday decide on the post-2020 emissions reduction target Australia will take to the UN Paris talks in December and the decision will then be presented to the Coalition party room.

The foreign minister, Julie Bishop, who leads the climate negotiations, and the environment minister, Greg Hunt, have been arguing that Australia needs to adopt an emission reduction target broadly in line with those already tabled by the US and Canada – a reduction of between 25% and 28% of 2005 levels by 2030 – but others in cabinet have expressed concern that the government won’t get any political credit from taking on an ambitious goal.

And once the government commits to a target it will be under pressure to explain the policy it intends to use to meet it, with business groups, thinktanks and market analysts all arguing the Direct Action policy would need substantial modification before it was up to the task. Business groups have been lobbying fiercely for the government to drop its opposition to the purchase of carbon credits from overseas.

Labor has not promised bipartisan support to a “lowball” target but has also not yet outlined a costed policy to reach a long-term climate goal.

Findings from the Climate Institute research include:

Australians are concerned that the seriousness of climate change is underestimated by the government (59% agree, 32% strongly agreeing, 16% disagree).

63% think the Abbott government should take climate change more seriously, up six points from 2014.

71% of Australians agree “it is inevitable that Australia’s current coal-fired generation will need to be replaced” (13% neutral, 5% disagree, 11% don’t know).

72% agree governments need to implement a plan to ensure the orderly closure of old coal plants and their replacement with clean energy (7% disagree and 14% neutral).

65% agree that “reducing the investment in windfarms and householder solar power is the opposite of what is needed” (39% strongly agree,11% disagree).

Solar is the most preferred energy source: when presented with eight sources, 84% of respondents place solar energy within their top three preferred options. This is up 2 points from 2014. Wind energy is the second most preferred option, with 69% supporting it in their preferred energy mix. Coal and nuclear are least preferred with only a 13% backing each as a top three choice.

The polling, and the decision on Australia’s post-2020 emissions reduction target, come after the Abbott government wound back the renewable energy target, instructed the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (which it had unsuccessfully tried to shut) to stop investing in solar and wind, and announced it would appoint a “wind commissioner” to handle complaints about noise from wind turbines and new scientific committee to investigate, again, their alleged impacts on human health.

“This week’s decision on Australia’s initial post-2020 climate commitment comes as nearly two-thirds of Australian believe that the Abbott government should take climate change more seriously, a surge of 6% from last year,” said John Connor, the chief executive of the Climate Institute.

“Our research also shows the carbon tax spectre still has some sting but perhaps less than would be expected. A third (36%) agree they won’t vote for the ALP because they will bring back the carbon tax, with a quarter (24%) neutral and 28% disagreeing.

“The government and the opposition have an opportunity to join mainstream Australian attitudes with climate commitments and policies which can limit carbon pollution, encourage renewable energy and clean up our energy system.”

The US has said it will reduce greenhouse emissions by 26% to 28% below 2005 levels in 2025 and aim for an 80% reduction by 2050. Canada says it will reduce its emissions by 30% on 2005 levels by 2030. The EU says it will reduce emissions by 40% by 2030 relative to 1990 levels.

The poll was a nationally representative online survey conducted by Galaxy Research 27-29 July 2015 among 1,016 Australians aged over 18. Its margin of error is +/- 3%.