When this month began, you pretty much could have guaranteed Madison Bumgarner and Trevor Bauer were going to be traded before July was done.

The Giants were a below-.500 also-ran whose new GM, Farhan Zaidi, was hired to think big picture and not get tied down by emotion — notably trading away a beloved, historic pitcher for this franchise such as Bumgarner.

The Indians were well behind the Twins and were the kind of small-market club that always has to think about maximizing assets such as Bauer.

So which teams have the best July records?

The Giants (15-3) and Indians (13-3). San Francisco has moved into the wild-card race and the Indians into the wild-card top seed plus close proximity to the AL Central lead. Now it is hard to find an executive who believes Bauer will be traded and becoming harder to find someone who sees Bumgarner getting moved.

The current conditions of a contracting field of available starters that convinces sellers to boldly ask for huge returns has complicated the market for the Yankees, Astros, Braves, Phillies and any other club seeking a starter. The ideal Yankee scenario remains obtaining a starter and a reliever plus having Luis Severino and Dellin Betances return from injury in time to fill the staff with high-end options. But here is why finding that starter is tough:

1. Bauer: “Give them an outfielder (via trade) and have (Corey) Kluber and (Carlos) Carrasco come back healthy and I think they are the biggest threat to (an Astros-Yankees) ALCS,” one AL talent evaluator said.

The Indians climbed from 11½ games behind the Twins on June 2 to three back going into Tuesday. The teams still have 10 games against each other. Bauer is looking at a $20 million-ish pact in his 2020 walk year, which motivated tight-budget Cleveland to think proactively. The Indians were still listening on Bauer, and if their sizable ask is met — which would include 2019 help for the lineup — Bauer can move. His return would be less in the offseason, but that is becoming the more probable scenario.

Another AL executive: “I think they keep him now. I know there are a lot of questions about his makeup, but if he were in the market, he is the No. 1 guy. The stuff is terrific.”

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2. Bumgarner: The 2018 Giants were 61-60 before a 12-29 collapse to end the year. They were 51-50 this year and wanting to believe in this surge, especially because they badly want to send cherished retiring manager Bruce Bochy out on a high. But talk to executives and they all give a version of, “You know the Giants actually aren’t good, right?”

One NL personnel head said, “They are getting brilliant play from Alex Dickerson and Mike Yastrzemski, and there is a shelf life on that.”

Logic would dictate, therefore, that they maximize Bumgarner and closer Will Smith because of the potential for another August swoon and the reality — with the Dodgers so far in front — that only the wild card is available. Yet the NL wild card is such a mosh pit of mediocrity that the most likely scenario now is Bumgarner is held and given the qualifying offer, while Smith may still be moved.

3. Mike Minor: The Rangers are the Giants in reverse — playing above their heads early before a 4-12 July reality check. They open a new stadium in 2020, so do they keep Minor, who is signed reasonably at $9.5 million next year and actually is the MLB pitching leader in Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement? The sense is they move him because it is such a seller’s market. He has a 10-team no-trade clause and the Yankees are part of it. Outside executives wonder whether Minor prefers to stay away from New York. One noted Minor and Sonny Gray were Vanderbilt teammates in 2009: “If he asks Sonny, do you think he would tell (Minor) that the Yankees were a good experience?”

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4. Robbie Ray: The Diamondbacks and Giants each began Tuesday at 51-50. Yet the outside perception is Arizona is currently more likely to sell. “I think they are realistic about who they are,” said an AL evaluator. Translation: Not ready to win it all, so still needing to accumulate assets. The D’backs would love to move Zack Greinke, but his 15-team no-trade clause and — more importantly — the $10 million-ish he is owed this season and $64 million in 2020-21 chills his market, though he continues to perform at a high level.

Ray is under control through 2020. The lefty has walked just four in his last three starts, but still leads the NL in bases on balls. An AL evaluator: “The control worries you, but if you see him on the right day, he could shut down any lineup. The stuff is real.”

5. Marcus Stroman: Perhaps the most likely starter to be traded, although he has a year of control left. Toronto recognizes he may never have more value with a 3.06 ERA and so many teams needing a starter. Yet the sense is he is a bunch of clubs’ fallback option. He is an extreme groundball pitcher, but playoff teams prefer swings and misses.

Detroit is valuing Matt Boyd as a top-of-the-rotation piece and suitors do not see him that way, making a trade problematic. Plenty of contenders will come to watch Zack Wheeler on Friday and a good start will elevate interest, but teams are more interested in Noah Syndergaard, whom the Mets are unlikely to move.