The fact that Jesse Hogan will be at Fremantle next year is becoming clearer by the day.

The Dockers want him, Brisbane want Lachie Neale, and Melbourne want the pick that spits out of that transaction so they can flip it for Gold Coast’s Steven May.

If we are to believe Hogan has not made up his mind yet, then his decision is the only thing standing in the way of everyone getting, basically, what they want. The only thing to be worked out is what the Demons will ask for their 23-year-old key forward.

If the Neale deal goes ahead, the Dockers will hold two picks in the top six at this year’s draft. It’s been reported Melbourne wants both of them.

But what’s fair price for a key tall capable of kicking 50+ goals every year? Let’s take a look at it two ways: first going by recent transactions, then using advanced analytics.

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What is the going rate for a key forward?

Midfielders win all the medals, but at the end of the day there will always be more good midfielders. Key forwards are a different kettle of fish.

Not every team in the league has a key forward capable of kicking 50 goals in a season, but a look at the recent premiers indicated you need one to get to the pointy end. West Coast (Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling), Richmond (Jack Riewoldt), Hawthorn (Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston), Geelong (Tom Hawkins) and Collingwood (Travis Cloke) all had big men at the top of their game when they won the flag.

The Western Bulldogs were one out of the box in 2016 but that’s a fairytale not often repeated and they still had two players finish with 40 goals for the year, and Sydney in 2012 had an even spread with four players kicking 30 or more for the season.

Camera Icon A contested-marking forward is what the Dockers lack. Credit: AAPIMAGE

It’s fair to glean, then, that having a good key forward is far more of a help than it is a hindrance. So when one who has already proved himself becomes available, you have to pay up right?

Here’s some of the most recent deals done for either proven key forwards or key forwards seen to have enormous potential at the time:

- Charlie Dixon to Port Adelaide for, in essence, pick No.10 and a future second-rounder.

- Tom Boyd to the Dogs for Ryan Griffen and pick No.6.

- Josh Kennedy, pick No.3 and No.20 to West Coast for Chris Judd and pick No.46.

These cases differ slightly but the Boyd deal aside, which was based as much around potential as anything else, clubs generally have only given up one top-10 pick or equivalent player in the transaction.

In the Hogan case, Melbourne knows Fremantle are desperate for a key tall and intend to make the most of that, so good on them. And the Dockers may be desperate enough to make the deal if they’ve already lost their second-best player in Neale.

But looking at this, there seems to be little case for Hogan to be worth what is currently picks No.4 and No.5. One maybe, with a little extra on the side, but not both.

What do the rankings systems say?

More and more, clubs are looking to advanced analytics to help them determine the correct value of a player. Now, this system has its limitations - particularly when dealing with the injury-prone - but it’s worth a look anyway.

The team at Hurling People Now have developed a system called PAPLEY (PAV Player Linear Extrapolated Yield) to use when comparing players and draft picks in a trade situation. It predicts their PAV output for the rest of their career. If you don’t know what PAV is, it’s a player ratings system which has built plenty of steam over the past year or so.

Camera Icon Players with a similar PAV to Hogan at the same age.

Based on what Hogan’s done in his first five years in the league - remember, he spend his first full season sidelined with a back injury - his projections are actually not that great.

Despite kicking more than two goals per game, the 23-year-old is only expected to produce 60.2 PAVs through the rest of his career - that’s the equivalent of four full average-to-solid seasons.

This year his PAV ranking was 14.0, and if we compare him to other players with a similar ranking at the same age, the best case comparison for Hogan’s future is Drew Petrie and the worst case is Robbie Haddrill.

Based on his 60.2 projected future PAVs, the appropriate pick to trade for him, based on that pick’s projection, would be pick No.17.

Using this system means packaging up picks No.4 and No.5 would be giving away almost three times as much as Hogan is worth.

Again, the injuries he’s suffered means this projection would be skewed compared to his actual potential, but it’s worth noting.

So, what is Jesse Hogan actually worth?

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Hogan is a premium goal-kicking key forward and they don’t become available very often. And Fremantle need one as soon as possible if they want to get back to challenging for finals.

Going on previous trades for key forwards and the analytics, a fair price draft pick for Hogan - who has battled back and foot problems - is probably somewhere around the 8-10 mark.

But as we know, fair price is rarely paid.

If Melbourne are stuck on receiving two first-rounders, the other option would be for the Dockers to trade a future pick and bank on improving or perhaps swap an early pick this year for two late first-rounders, staying in the draft and satisfying the Dees at the same time.

Whether or not that proves to be overs all comes down to Hogan.