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Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives are heading to a majority government in the Ontario election on Oct.6, a new poll by Forum Research suggests.

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The poll of 3,198 people, a large sample size, suggests that 41% of Ontario voters will vote for the PCs, 26% support the reigning Liberal Party, 22% want the NDP to win, and 8% back the Green Party.

The poll found the Tories and Liberals neck-in-neck in Toronto, whereas in Eastern Ontario 50% support the Tories compared to just 25% for the Liberals in that region.

Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, said Sunday that, although the election is still over three months away, much of that is during the sleepy summer months, giving the Liberals precious little time to make up the wide gap in voter preference.

“We did learn from a couple of months ago [in the federal election] that campaigns do matter,” Mr. Bozinoff said. “Nobody predicted what happened with the NDP. Still, it’s hard to see how the Ontario Liberals are going to gain traction if they release their platform in the summer.”