Only 6 months ago, the online right wing had basically given up completely on Rajasthan. I am just as guilty as anyone else on this. Like me, I think several folks didn’t even want to see the opinion polls. When we dared take a peek, it seemed to confirm the worst fears.

A 16% vote share gap? We know what that can do. A 3/4th majority seemed to be on the cards for Congress. If not more.

Results from real elections also seemed to confirm this impression. The BJP had lost Ajmer and Alwar miserably in bypolls in Jan 2018.

Now that we have the real results from Rajasthan, there is no doubt that the right let itself down. Just 0.5% separated BJP from Congress. If only RW had not fallen for the negativity being spread by media, they would clearly have won Rajasthan. Full on enthusiasm from social media, ground cadre, state leadership and national leadership could easily have covered this 0.5% gap. With some trepidation, I will say that perhaps if HE had done 10 more rallies, 5 each in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP would have been ruling BOTH states right now.

Somewhere, down the line, everyone let the media get to them. For 2019, BJP and its sympathizers simply can’t let the media get to them.

So ABP, Republic and India Today / Aaj Tak did their opinion poll shows in the last 2 days. One set of channels went with CVoter and another with Karvy. Interestingly, both agencies came back with practically the same number : NDA 235 and UPA 165.

I couldn’t care less. I can’t even name all the parties in NDA and all the parties in UPA. Can you?

Buried deep within their own surveys are the numbers that really matter …

BJP 200

Congress 100

As I said, both surveys came up with practically same numbers. I think India Today Karvy gave BJP 203, Cong 97 and CVoter had Cong at 109. Media is not advertising these numbers very much for obvious reasons.

So the real takeaway is that even media finds BJP a full 100 seats ahead of Congress.

Even as media rejoices at the “decline” of Modi, you can’t give in to the unnecessary negativity. For starters, the losses are mostly coming from one state : Uttar Pradesh. Surveys say BJP could lose 45-50 seats there itself. Losses in other states are through mere attrition caused by anti incumbency. A few seats down in Rajasthan, a few down in Madhya Pradesh and so on.

If there is one thing we have seen for a long time now, it is that BJP gets systematically underestimated in opinion polls. We saw it in Uttar Pradesh, in Karnataka, in Rajasthan and in Madhya Pradesh. All large states. Plenty of opinion polls. Some 90% of them massively underestimated BJP. Even in Gujarat, after “rumors” of “resurgent Congress” were planted in the media, multiple opinion polls showed BJP was tying the Congress in vote shares. Ultimately, the results showed that BJP had an 8% lead in votes. Which is a LOT.

The right wing has a choice in Uttar Pradesh, not to become their own worst enemy.

The Modi mandate has proved amazingly resilient in the last 5 years and in Uttar Pradesh the 42% number has almost become legendary. The same 42% voted for Modi in 2014, the same 42% voted for him in 2017 and every opinion poll since then seems to find Modi at that exact 42%. The Cvoter poll from yesterday on BJP in Uttar Pradesh? You guessed it… 42%!

The only exception is Karvy which came up with 36% for BJP in UP… a serious loss of 6% votes. But the same poll found that 57% were satisfied with Yogi Adityanath and as many as 40% said he was the “best CM in the country.” So 40% feel he is the “best CM in India” but won’t vote for Modi who is even more popular… C’mon. Let’s dismiss that 36% number as junk.

And I keep repeating this. The BSP+SP was actually 1.5% behind BJP in 2014. Modi’s support in UP has proved very resilient. If BJP can pull back Rajasthan to less than 1% margin, they can do wonders in Uttar Pradesh in a national election.

In particular, BSP has long complained that their alliance partners are not able to transfer votes to them. Even if the Mahagathbandhan loses 1% of the vote due to rebels and lack of vote transfer, this will put them 2.5% behind BJP as per 2014 numbers. And then, there’s going to be the Modi campaign.

It’s a national election and UP has surprised before in national elections. There is a clear longing to look beyond regional forces for the Lok Sabha election.

The voter sees that BJP is around 200 and Congress around 100. The voter doesn’t want a shaky coalition. The election is likely to “break” in BJP’s favor.

Even more so now that Priyanka Gandhi has joined politics. The Congress spent the last 15 years trying to build Rahul up as a national icon. It was only about 4-5 months ago that they finally saw some success. And Congress has made a giant mistake at the exact moment they finally got some momentum building for Rahul. Just as people were finally regarding him as a serious option, they pushed Rahul out of the spotlight and thrust Priyanka.

Modi vs Rahul used to be a no contest. It was beginning to get a bit harder for Modi in the last few months. The relentless 15 year media campaign was finally making an impact. Congress has released the pressure at the exact moment it was beginning to work. Now it’s back to Modi vs random people. What a strategic disaster. Congress will regret this for years to come.

And don’t miss the “side blunder” Congress made … they moved Jyotiraditya out of Madhya Pradesh by sending him as Gen. Secy of Western UP. Seems Kamal Nath has now totally sidelined him. Hard to imagine Scindia being happy about this.