The newly minted Ford government in Ontario will soon face its greatest challenge if U.S. President Donald Trump imposes import duties on the Canadian auto sector. Any hope that duties will not be imposed faded when President Trump told Fox News he wouldn’t sign a NAFTA deal until after the American mid-term elections in November.

Deferring the NAFTA deal isn’t a sign of deference to voters or to Congress. After all, Trump isn’t waiting for the mid-terms before naming his choice to succeed U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy. Declaring that he wouldn’t sign a deal before the fall merely preserves the option of imposing auto tariffs this summer.

The auto sector is Ontario’s economic engine, and, as such, a threat against the auto sector is a threat to Ontarians. That’s why Premier Doug Ford needs to be at the heart of Canada’s NAFTA strategy. Few premiers have been tested by a foreign power as Ford soon will be, but he may also be one of the few who is fit to fight in this kind of contest.

In his book Think Big and Kick Ass, Trump wrote: “To be super successful you have to use leverage to extract top dollar for what you do. You’ve got to threaten to inflict some pain before you get some gain. In every successful real estate deal I have had to make my opponent feel the pain of what he would lose if he did not do a deal with me.”

That is what the steel and aluminum tariffs were about, and it is why auto tariffs may be inevitable. Trump wants to inflict the pain of tariffs to force Canadians into making concessions in the NAFTA talks. And, we’re in good company. It’s the same strategy he has used with China, South Korea, Mexico, Germany, and France.

To be clear, this isn’t some secret strategy. During his recent testimony before the U.S. Senate’s Finance Committee, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said: “Our objective is to have a revitalized NAFTA, a NAFTA that helps America and, as part of that, the [tariffs] would logically go away, both as it relates to Canada and as to Mexico.”

Translation: Give us what we want, and we’ll take this gun away from your head.

While auto tariffs would have a devastating impact on Canada’s economy as a whole, Ontario would be disproportionately affected. For that reason alone, Ford deserves to have a prominent seat at the negotiating table. But there’s another compelling reason — we need a new face for the next phase of the NAFTA negotiations.

For reasons known only to him, Trump has chosen to make the tariff issue personal. His campaign-style stump speeches now mockingly refer to our prime minister as simply “Justin.” Prime Minister Trudeau has become the latest of the President’s political opponents to be personally belittled. While it is both unfounded and unfair, Trump sees Trudeau as soft.

The President needs to see a different kind of Canadian across the table. Trump needs to be shown that Canadians aren’t always polished and polite, attributes which he might, wrongly, interpret as weaknesses. He needs to see a blunt-talking, hard-charging, alpha male pounding on the proverbial table. We need to fight ire with ire.

Trump has likely read about Ford, if only what’s been in the U.S. media. He may have read the New York Times article “Will a Canadian Donald Trump Become Ontario’s Leader?”, or the Fox News reports calling Ford “a populist who has been compared to…Trump with his opposition to carbon taxes and promise for income tax cuts.”

Whatever he’s read, Trump will quickly understand that Doug Ford is no Justin Trudeau. Trump may not see himself in Ford, and I doubt the converse is true, but he might recognize and respect him as a kindred spirit. Even that would be a step up from what Trump sees in Trudeau — a guy he enjoys taunting, trolling, and toying with.

Ford has said that he will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Trudeau on trade, but we need him to stand toe-to-toe with Trump. There could be no better sign of our united, non-partisan resolve in the face of American assertiveness than sending a Conservative to be the leading and loudest voice in the Canadian chorus.

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Goldy Hyder is President & CEO of Hill+Knowlton Strategies (Canada)

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