Jonathan Schanzer: The experts were wrong about the Middle East

This is nonsense. Saudi Arabia and Iran are both despotisms. (Freedom House rates regimes on a scale of one to 100, with 100 being the freest. In 2018, Tehran garnered an 18; Riyadh a seven.) Both destabilize governments they oppose and buttress those they support. In Yemen, Tehran is backing the rebels; in Syria, Riyadh is. Both support terrorism when it suits their aims. Iran is more deeply implicated in terrorism against Israel. Saudi Arabia is more deeply implicated in terrorism against the United States.

America should be trying to ease the Iranian-Saudi cold war, which has fueled the hideous proxy wars that have devastated Syria and Yemen. Instead, Trump is inflaming it.

Trump’s eagerness for a cold war with Iran underlies his refusal to punish Saudi Arabia for Khashoggi’s murder. When justifying his refusal to condemn Riyadh, Trump often cites Saudi purchases of U.S. arms. But that’s at least partly a smoke screen. The bigger reason is that without Saudi Arabia, America can’t get tough on Iran. As David Sanger reported last week in The New York Times, “Trump administration officials and outside experts said that possible repercussions on an elaborate plan to squeeze the Iranians have dominated internal discussions about the fallout over what happened to Mr. Khashoggi. By comparison, they said, the issue of limiting American arms sales to Saudi Arabia, which Mr. Trump has said would threaten American jobs, pales in importance.”

As part of Trump’s “plan to squeeze the Iranians,” Pompeo has vowed to try to push “global imports of Iranian crude oil as close to zero” as possible. Doing that without boosting global oil prices requires ensuring that the Saudis keep production high. So in order to destroy Iran’s economy, the Trump administration must stay on Riyadh’s good side, even if it means helping the royal family wage a war that’s killing Yemeni children or lie about murdering Saudi journalists. That’s a cost of America’s enthusiasm for cold war.

Graeme Wood: Why won’t Turkey release the Khashoggi tapes?

But it’s only part of the cost. America’s cold-war posture is also terrible for the people of Iran. According to a 2016 study in the journal Global Health, American sanctions—which have prevented Iran from importing prescription drugs or the raw materials to make them—have left 6 million Iranians “without access to essential treatment.” The architect of those sanctions is Barack Obama, who from 2010 to 2012, in coordination with America’s European allies, made it almost impossible for Iranian companies to import from or export to the West or transfer money through Western banks. Obama, however, saw those sanctions as a short-term gambit to convince Tehran to sign a nuclear deal. Once the deal was signed, he began lifting them.