This careful and first-rate national poll, done by Joel Searby of Data Targeting, has just been released. Searby's summary memo and the actual survey results are posted on Data Targeting's website; I encourage you to take a look at them yourself.

The key conclusion: There is a viable path to victory for an independent candidate. It won't be easy, but it's doable.

Key findings:

A clear majority of respondents would like to have the option of an independent candidate. Fifty-eight percent of respondents say they are dissatisfied with the current Democratic and Republican nominees; 55 percent of respondents (and 91 percent of voters under the age of 29!) favor having an independent candidate on the ballot. A striking 65 percent of respondents are somewhat, pretty, or very willing to support a candidate for president who is not Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

In a ballot test against Clinton and Trump, an independent candidate starts of with 21 percent of the vote. The ballot test is Trump 34 percent, Clinton 31 percent, Independent Candidate 21 percent.

So a credible independent candidate should be able to pretty quickly approach 20 percent of the vote and get into the fall debates, where a full two-thirds of the electorate will be at least open to his or her message.