With the playoffs quickly approaching, it is time to start looking at who will make the cut and who will be left out. Since this is something that interests me, I have been occasionally posting what the playoffs would look like if teams continued to pick up points at their average rate. For example, a team that gains 1.55 points per game would continue to gain 1.55 points per game for the rest of the season.

However, this ignores one very important part of projecting how teams will do: who the team plays. If a team has gained 1.55 points per game while playing a harder-than-normal schedule and they end the season playing weaker teams, you would expect them to gain more than 1.55 points per game. The same theory applies in reverse. If a team plays a tougher schedule down the stretch they would be expected to gain fewer points per game.

By taking strength of schedule into account, we try to form a better prediction of what will happen. Without accounting for the strength of the opposition, a team would be expected to gain the exact same number of points if they played one of the elite teams or if they played one of the weaker teams. Simple logic says that this is not true. You will gain more points against poor teams and fewer points against good teams.

I have created a formula which takes this into account by adjusting the extrapolation of points gained per game and weighing that with strength of schedule.

First, you must calculate each team's strength of schedule that they have played, the strength of schedule that they will play, and know their current record. By dividing their points gained by number of games played, you can calculate a team's points gained per game.

Once that information is obtained, you divide the remaining strength of schedule by the current strength of schedule. This ratio is multiplied by the team's current points gained per game to give what is expected for the remainder of the season.

For example, if a team has played a team with an average of 1.38 points per game, and their remaining opponents have an average of 1.31 points gained per game, the ratio is 1.05. This means that they would be expected to gain 1.05 times their current points per game to finish the season, which can have a major impact on a team.

If you took a team that gained 1.55 points per game through their first 22 games and did not adjust their points gained per game to factor in strength of schedule, they would finish with a projected 46.4 points after the 30 game season. If you adjusted to reflect an end of the season where you play an easier opponent, they will now be expected to end the season gaining 1.63 points per game over their last eight, and ending with 47.1 points gained. Adding in this strength of schedule gives the team in question almost a full expected extra point.

The following are the current projected full standings in both the West and the East, using this strength of schedule adjusted system as opposed to simply extrapolating the current points gained per game. Points gained per game are shown to the tenth for additional clarity.

For additional information, and to highlight potential areas where using strength of schedule is impactful to the projected playoff pictures, I have included each team's rank using the simple extrapolation of points gained per game without considering strength of schedule as reference. Those are the numbers in italics.