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Can they truly plot the way?

“The big question is how aggressive will they be on deficit reduction,” said Mike Moffat, an economics professor at the Richard Ivey School of Business. “This is a government that is desperately trying to balance the books but finds itself in a very large hole.

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“I think they are going to have to do something, maybe not necessarily bold, but something fairly unpopular if they are going to balance the budget on schedule,” Moffat said on Wednesday.

“And if they are going to do something unpopular, now would be the time to do it,” he said, noting the next provincial election is not until 2018.

So whether tax increases or massive spending cuts, the heavy lifting to clear a path to a balanced budget must be done now.

Wynne and Finance Minister Charles Sousa have not explicitly ruled out new taxes, instead have touted $130 billion in infrastructure spending announced in last year’s budget and incremental reforms to beer sales.

But Moffat said he would be “very surprised” if there were any large-scale tax increases in this budget.

“They’re more likely to try and balance the books through spending reduction or spending restraint,” he said.

And with teachers gearing up for strikes, doctors already lambasting cuts to fees and public-sector unions rallying against further austerity and the planned but criticized partial sale of Hydro One meant to fund infrastructure, no smooth passage lies ahead. Then there’s the provincial debt, which, on total debt of about $280 billion, costs about $11 billion a year to service.

Moody’s, a credit-rating agency, warned the province in February it must get its debt-to-revenue ratio under control or face another downgrade, which would make the debt even more expensive to maintain.

“If things unfold as most people think they will, Ontario’s debt is going to continue to rise as a fraction of (gross domestic product),” said Ronald Kneebone, an economics professor with the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary. “Ontario is in trouble.… It needs to start taking steps towards reducing its level of debt.”