This article is part of a “ No Blue Wave ” series which analyzes the upcoming midterms. Read other parts here, here, here, and here in The Renegade Deplorable — Max’s exclusive column for Halsey News.

No Blue Wave

Wherefore art thou, O fabled blue wave?

Not in the early vote count!

Across the country, the GOP has managed to up their share of the early vote total +1.5% over the final 2016 total which hints a red wave.

In other words, Republicans are voting in record numbers; outpacing 2016 — a year they retained control of the House of Representatives, the Senate and won the Presidency.

This is not just happening in key states, like Florida, Arizona and Nevada, it is also happening in places like California and Iowa. Both of those states have competitive House races which Dems need to win in order to make Nancy Pelosi the next Speaker.

Shades of 2016

According to Mr. Michael Newton, “The Republican share of the votes cast so far is +1.5% against the ‘final’ 2016 results…. In contrast, the Democrat share is -0.2% in the ‘final’ data.”

So, at best, Democrats are ‘flat’ this year. At worst, they are falling behind their 2016 numbers.

What does this mean?

With only three EV days left, Democrats would need to win the election day vote otherwise the 2018 electorate will be disproportionately Republican.

In such a circumstance, Dems would need to win a large share of the Republican vote — a highly unlikely scenario.

If trends hold — and I suspect they will — the 2018 Electorate is much more Republican than anticipated.

This might explain why pollsters keep getting it wrong: they anticipate a higher Dem turnout and weight their samples accordingly. I have respect for statistical analyses, but when you insert your own bias assumptions as fact, you end up with numbers which skew from reality.

If there’s to be a “blue wave” it is not going to come from the early vote.

Still, YOU need to GET OUT on November 6th and take five friends with you to VOTE RED!

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