High speed, high cost: Bullet train price tag reaches $77.3 billion, four years behind schedule

SACRAMENTO — Completing the dream of linking San Francisco to Los Angeles with direct, high-speed rail service is four years behind schedule and may cost at least $77.3 billion — roughly $13 billion more than planners anticipated — transportation officials said Friday.

In a sobering report that looked at the project’s finances and timeline, the California High Speed Rail Authority estimated costs for each leg of construction could be anywhere from 20 to 35 percent more than projected in 2016.

In a departure from previous reports, the authority gave a range of project costs, up to as high as $98 billion.

And, it acknowledged many unknowns about the most risky segments of the project, including the creation of some 45 to 50 miles of tunnels that are both complicated and costly to engineer, as well uncertainty over whether the authority will secure enough funding to extend the first Central Valley segment into Southern California.

When completed, the 800-mile railroad is expected to whisk passengers on a three-hour ride between San Francisco and Los Angeles at speeds of over 200 miles per hour for half the cost of an airline ticket. With stops in the Central Valley, the bullet train could help ease the Bay Area’s crowded freeways and soaring housing costs by giving workers access to cheaper housing and easier commutes while also making it easier for businesses to relocate where real estate is cheaper.

Several Republicans, long critical of the project and earlier reports showing the potential for skyrocketing costs, used the release of the authority’s updated business plan to blast the agency, calling the current proposal a “rump railroad.” Assemblyman Jim Patterson, R-Fresno, called the document a “going out of business plan.”

“The fundamental problem is they don’t have any money,” he said. “They cannot do what they are charged to do (under Prop 1A), and this document admits it.”

In a telephone interview with reporters, the authority’s new CEO, Brian Kelly, said he was committed to completing the project voters approved in 2008 under Prop 1A.

“We are compelled by funding constraints to deliver this project in an incremental way,” he said. “I am committed to putting in place and helping deliver the project the people of California voted for.”

The update comes on the heels of news that the first 119-mile segment under construction — between Madera and a station north of Bakersfield — is forecast to cost $10.6 billion, up from an initial estimate of $6 billion, due to a “worst case” combination of construction delays and higher-than-anticipated land acquisition costs. That segment is still on track to be completed by 2022, according to the report.

The next segment, which was initially planned to stop in San Jose with an anticipated cost of $21 billion, has been extended north to San Francisco and south to Bakersfield for a revised project cost of $29 billion. That estimate includes an extra $2 billion for the expanded route and has a completion date of 2029.

But, it’s missing a critical link between the Bay Area and the Central Valley: the Pacheco Pass tunnels, which the authority admits it does not have the funding to complete.

Without the link between Gilroy and Madera, the authority may take advantage of the electric tracks before high speed rail service begins, Kelly said, allowing Caltrain to use the northern segment of the railway for potentially faster service between San Francisco and Gilroy and Amtrak to utilize portions of the track that mirrors its Bakersfield service.

“My hope, candidly, is that we can find a way to get high-speed rail trains down there working with Amtrak in the Central Valley sooner than 2029 as we build the Valley-to-Valley service,” Kelly said. “There is a benefit immediately there for Caltrain, which is now running an electrified service.”

Once the trains from Bakersfield to San Francisco are running, the authority hopes to attract a private operator and begin to generate revenue for further construction into Southern California, which would extend into Anaheim, said Dan Richard, the chairman of the authority’s governing board.

“The biggest challenge is not the lack of funding, it’s the lack of imagination,” Richard said. “Most Americans have not ridden on a high-speed rail line but when we get 200 mph trains connecting even half the state, I just think everything is going to change.”

Since the project’s inception, planners have expected to rely on federal funds that have since been cast into doubt with the Trump administration and staunch opposition from California Republicans, who sent a letter last year asking federal agencies to block funding for Caltrain electrification because it plans to share its tracks with the bullet train.

Kelly acknowledged Friday that without federal support, it’s unlikely the trains will reach Los Angeles.

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