World leaders will closely watch Shinzo Abe’s meeting with Donald Trump in New York on Thursday for tips on how to handle the unpredictable US president-elect.

How Trump responds to Abe – the first head of government to gain an audience with him – will be of equal interest, given the importance Japan attaches to respectful behaviour and correct protocol.

Japan’s prime minister pulled off this coup when he rang up to congratulate Trump after last week’s election, suggesting he drop by on his way to a regional summit in Peru.

By getting in first, Abe has trumped other traditional allies, such as Britain’s Theresa May. Already stereotyped as a second Margaret Thatcher to Trump’s Ronald Reagan, May is still waiting for a chance to meet the president-elect.

Manliness matters a lot, apparently, to a politician frequently labelled a misogynist. So Abe’s hard-headed, conservative style may appeal to Trump. The Japanese PM has a record of hitting it off with “strongman” leaders of the type Trump seems to admire. To the annoyance of the Obama administration, he has pursued closer ties with Vladimir Putin, increasing Japanese investment in Russian energy projects while pushing to resolve old territorial disputes.

Abe also reportedly gets on well with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s authoritarian president, and Iran’s leaders. He recently told the vociferously anti-American Philippines leader, Rodrigo Duterte, that he was a “famous figure”.

“Abe has the mysterious skill of getting along with people,” Makoto Iokibe, the former president of the National Defense Academy of Japan, told Mainichi Shimbun newspaper. “If Abe can get along with Putin, perhaps he won’t find it difficult to strike up a cordial relationship with Trump.”

Outright flattery is a tactic likely to work with Trump who, despite his bluster, has zero experience at this elevated level and will be feeling his way. If the two men get on well, Abe may draw on his superior knowledge to shape or temper Trump’s views, for example on future dealings with China, Tokyo’s more powerful regional rival.

Abe is likely to appeal directly to common interests as a way of defusing or circumventing Trump’s more alarming statements. During the campaign he demanded Japan pay more for the upkeep of US bases. Trump also suggested, although this is now disputed, that Japan and South Korea consider acquiring nuclear weapons to deter Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s dictator, whom he termed a “maniac”.

Japanese analysts calculate Tokyo is already paying up to 75% of the total cost of American military deployments in Japan, which include 50,000 troops and the US Seventh Fleet, and that these commitments uphold a shared interest in maintaining security across the east- and south-east Asian regions.

Likewise, Abe may argue, North Korea’s rogue nuclear weapons programme represents a threat to the entire free world, of which Trump will soon be the nominal leader, and is undermining global counter-proliferation efforts. Such an approach would appeal to Trump’s idea of himself as a budding international statesman.

A key test will be whether Abe can change Trump’s mind about the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an ambitious international trade pact. Abe is a strong supporter and will hope to convince Trump of its virtues despite the latter’s oft-stated criticism of free trade treaties in general.

It will be a meeting of contrasts. Physically, the two men are strikingly different. At 6ft 2in (1.87 metres), Trump is five inches taller and a lot heavier. This will presumably gratify any assumptions Trump may hold about senior and junior partners in the US-Japan alliance. Yet, in psychological terms, the disparity could work to Abe’s advantage.

But Abe may have to bite his tongue. For such a distinguished visitor, he may experience an unusual degree of back-slapping informality and undiplomatic banter. Trump’s guest will also have to refrain from interpreting his transition team’s organisational confusion as deliberate rudeness.

As Abe flew to New York, aides could still not say exactly where and when the meeting would take place. For all anybody knows, it could be in Trump’s favourite steak diner.