Protesters expresses criticism at a round table event with Sen. Joni Ernst on Feb. 21 in Maquoketa, Iowa. | AP Photo Poll: Support for Obamacare is rising

The 2010 health care law is becoming more popular, even as it heads toward the chopping block — further complicating efforts by President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans to repeal and replace it.

While both Trump and Republicans in both chambers of Congress campaigned on repealing the Affordable Care Act — passed exclusively with Democratic votes and signed by then-President Barack Obama — a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows voters are now split evenly on the law. Forty-five percent of registered voters approve of the law, the poll shows, and 45 percent disapprove.


In early January, before Trump took office, a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll showed only 41 percent of voters approved of the health care law, compared with 52 percent who disapproved.

And now there’s little consensus on what Congress and the Trump administration should do next. Only 12 percent want to keep the law in place, while 24 percent want to repeal it entirely. But there’s a sharp divide between the 27 percent who want to repeal parts of the law, but not all of it — and the 26 percent who want to expand the existing law.

"As the threat of the Affordable Care Act’s repeal has moved from notional to concrete, our weekly polling has shown an uptick in the law’s popularity, and fewer voters support repealing the law,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer.

Voters are also opposed to repealing many individual aspects of the law. Of nine separate provisions of the law tested in the poll, more poll respondents want to repeal only one — the individual mandate that Americans purchase health insurance — than want to keep it.

Other provisions are resoundingly popular. Nearly two-thirds of voters, 65 percent, want to keep prohibiting insurance companies from denying coverage to patients with pre-existing conditions, including 59 percent of Republicans. Sixty-three percent want to keep allowing those younger than 26 years of age to stay on their parents’ plan, including 56 percent of Republicans.

Voters even want to keep provisions of the law opposed by most Republicans. Only a quarter want to repeal requiring businesses with more than 50 full-time employees to provide health insurance, while 59 percent want to keep it. Just 28 percent want to repeal requirements that insurance companies cover birth-control medication, and 55 percent want to keep it. And one-third, 33 percent, want to repeal taxes on medical devices, while slightly more, 39 percent, want to keep those taxes in place.

As anger and frustration over the health care law’s future builds among some constituents, many lawmakers are eschewing in-person town hall meetings during this week’s congressional recess — opting instead to host “tele-town halls,” an event format that allows participants to question members only over the phone.

But voters still prefer the traditional, analog version of political engagement, the poll shows. Fifty-six percent of voters would prefer their member of Congress hold in-person town hall events, while only 20 percent prefer the tele-conferences.

More generally, voters want Republicans in Congress to be a check and balance on Trump’s agenda, the poll shows. But even as some members hear from those voters at town hall meetings during this week’s recess, the poll also shows a majority of Republicans want GOP representatives to support Trump’s priorities, though not overwhelmingly.

Overall, 53 percent of voters want congressional Republicans to “focus on being a check and balance” to Trump, while only 31 percent think they should focus on supporting Trump’s programs. Among self-identified GOP voters, 55 percent want Republicans to support Trump’s priorities, but a sizable, 37 percent share wants them to be a check and balance on Trump.

The new survey — conducted last Thursday through Sunday — coincides with an early test of the precarious alliance between Trump’s administration and congressional Republicans.

Voters continue to divide sharply on views of Trump and his presidency. Trump’s approval rating in the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll continues to tilt slightly positive — 48 percent of voters approve in the new survey, while 45 percent disapprove — but the share of the electorate that strongly disapproves (33 percent) is greater than the percentage that strongly approves (27 percent).

And voters are also split on Trump personally: 47 percent have a favorable opinion of him, while 48 percent view him unfavorably.

Trump does retain solid backing from GOP voters, however, which could inform congressional Republicans as they navigate the early months of Trump’s presidency.

"Trump has strong support from within his party: 85 percent of Republicans approve of the job he's doing,” Dropp said. “But that doesn't mean they're ready to give him carte blanche. Even four in 10 Republicans say congressional Republicans should serve as a check on Trump.”

The poll surveyed 2,013 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: http://politi.co/2lDCTh8 | Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2lkLi8z