JOHN MACDOUGALL via Getty Images A woman browses the site of home sharing giant Airbnb on a tablet in Berlin, April 28, 2016. Airbnb is in a fight for its life amid the COVID-19 outbreak, but that could be good news for renters and homebuyers struggling with affordability.

Amid all the bad news surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, there might be something of a silver lining for renters and homebuyers in Canada’s priciest cities: When the lockdown ends, they may find themselves in a more affordable housing market. And if it happens, it will be in no small part thanks to the sudden flame-out of Airbnb, whose hosts have seen a collapse in revenue as global tourism ground to a halt in the past few months. Airbnb’s situation right now is about as dire as it could be. Amid the viral outbreak, travelers are afraid to stay in strangers’ homes. Tenants in condo and apartment buildings don’t want travelers coming and going, and some buildings are moving to ban Airbnb listings. Most profoundly, Ontario and Quebec have temporarily banned short-term rentals, the core of Airbnb’s business. Watch: What’s happening to Canada’s housing market in the pandemic? Story continues below.

But even before the pandemic hit, changing attitudes and changing rules meant Airbnb owners were facing a much harsher new reality. One major earthquake for the vacation rental platform came in November, when a new Toronto by-law came into effect, forbidding homeowners from renting out any properties on Airbnb except for their primary residence or rooms in a primary residence. That rule ― very similar to one that Vancouver enacted in 2018 ― was meant to put an end to the phenomenon of large property owners buying entire chunks of condo buildings and renting the units out through Airbnb. Affordable housing advocates have argued for years that this practice drove up housing costs for residents and led to the creation of condo tower “ghost hotels.” The by-law change came and went with only a little media attention, but its meaning for Airbnb in Canada is seismic; it changes the business entirely. According to data from consultancy Host Compliance, these “ghost hotel” operators accounted for 30 per cent of the homes listed on Airbnb, but 80 per cent of the company’s revenue. Even before COVID-19, Airbnb was facing a potential revenue collapse in some of Canada’s largest markets. A sudden boom in furnished apartments The new rule seems to have had an immediate impact. Toronto saw a 29-per-cent spike in the number of furnished, long-term apartment rentals available in the first three months of this year, according to real estate consultancy Urbanation, which sees this as a sign that Airbnb owners are shifting to long-term rentals ― though that was largely before the impact of the pandemic was felt. Others believe Airbnb hosts are more likely to sell their units instead. “They’re not going to hold on to it for the rental market,” said Diana Petramala, a senior researcher at Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development.

AirDNA This chart from analytics firm AirDNA shows a steep drop in demand for Airbnb rentals in Canada's largest metro areas, with projected revenues down by more than half in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

Short-term rentals bring in far more revenue than long-term rentals, so renting out an apartment on a one-year lease is “a less attractive investment to hold on to,” she told HuffPost Canada. That’s especially true if you’re one of the many homebuyers using Airbnb income to cover a large mortgage. Rent in the apartment market might not be enough to cover that monthly payment. “So if you can sell (those units) at a really high price why not sell them? More will end up in the sale supply than in the long-term (rental) market,” Petramala predicted. She noted that the City of Toronto saw a more than 8-per-cent increase in listings of homes for sale in March, while the region’s suburban cities ― where Airbnb listings are few and far between ― saw virtually no increase. It all amounts to a sudden injection of new housing supply ― at a time when demand is drying up because of an economic crisis. That will put downward pressure on housing prices, Petramala predicted. How much could this help buyers and renters? It’s hard to predict exactly, especially given all the other economic upheavals taking place right now, but we have data to give us an idea of the scale of things. A study from housing advocacy group Fairbnb estimated earlier this year that the by-law the city enacted last year would result in 6,500 homes being added to Toronto’s housing supply, if the rule was fully enforced. If they all arrived at once, it would more than double the number of active home listings to choose from. A 2018 study in the U.S. found that a 10-per-cent jump in Airbnb listings in an area increased rents by 0.4 per cent. If that dynamic reversed itself, a collapse in Airbnb listings could mean several percentage points off average rent. But even if it means more affordable housing, some question whether Airbnb’s decline is a good thing. Scott Chatford, CEO of analytics firm AirDNA, argues that in a time of economic crisis, many people could generate additional income by renting out a second property or a room in their home on Airbnb. “That income stream is a lot more attractive (now) for many people, so we think there’s likely to be more supply added to Airbnb,” he told HuffPost.