Early on Tuesday, Hurricane Matthew ravaged Haiti and eastern parts of Cuba with winds of up to 145mph, and it appeared likely to do the same to the Bahamas on Wednesday. Beyond that point, considerable uncertainty remains in the storm's track as it moves northwest toward Florida. But arguably the world's best weather model, the European forecast system, now suggests a potential landfall along, or a significant grazing of, Florida's space coast.

The 12z operational run of the European model, which was initialized Tuesday morning and finished running early in the afternoon hours, shows a weaker trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes region affecting Matthew, allowing the hurricane to follow a slightly more westerly track. The model actually brings the storm's center ashore on the Florida coast near Cocoa Beach, Florida, and the Kennedy Space Center on Friday morning. Although hurricane forecasts can vary significantly from run to run, with less than three days before such a landfall, this seems to be a plausible outcome.

Ars reached out to Kennedy Space Center's Amber Philman on Tuesday afternoon, and she said the center is currently at HURCON III status, which means officials there expect sustained 50 knot winds within 72 hours. Hurricane preparations and facility securing will begin Wednesday morning, she said.

Other tenants are also closely watching the storm. "We’re closely monitoring the weather conditions and working with our partners at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station to safeguard facilities and personnel in the potentially affected areas.” Most of Florida's east coast is presently under a hurricane watch, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Kennedy Space Center, built along the coast, was designed to withstand hurricanes. However, the latest run of the European model has raised concerns because it suggests that wind gusts as high as 130mph could move into the Florida coast near the space center.

Based on a government summary of Kennedy Space Center's hurricane plan , such winds could pose a threat to some of the historic structures at the space center. The Orbiter Processing Facilities are rated to withstand winds of 105 mph, while the iconic Vertical Assembly Building, Launch Control Center, launch pads, and other facilities can withstand 125mph winds. Newer facilities built after Hurricane Andrew, in 1992, were designed to withstand winds of 130mph or greater.

While it remains likely that winds of 125mph or greater will not affect the space center—generally the area of most intense winds is relatively small in a hurricane—it can't be ruled out. This is especially true if Matthew maintains its strength over the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, where low wind shear and warm seas are conducive for hurricane development.