Survey of more than 4,000 young medics shows more than 70% would move abroad, become a locum or change career

Thousands of junior doctors in England will quit the NHS if Jeremy Hunt presses ahead with his threat to impose an unpopular contract on them, a survey shows.

The poll has prompted warnings that such an exodus would leave the NHS unable to function, given young medics’ key role in delivering care.

In all, 2,949 (71.4%) of the 4,129 junior doctors polled said they would move abroad, become a locum or give up medicine altogether if the contract is forced on them next year as part of the government’s move to a seven-day NHS.

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Fewer than one in three – 1,180 (28.6%) of respondents – said they would stay in the NHS.

The survey follows a demonstration in London last weekend at which an estimated 20,000 junior doctors protested against proposals which they say would cut their pay by up to 30% and force them to work even more antisocial shifts.

“These figures paint a very worrying picture. They echo the outpouring of anger from junior doctors in recent weeks and show just how let down they feel by the government’s proposals,” said Dr Johann Malawana, chair of the junior doctors committee (JDC) at the British Medical Association, the doctors’ union.

“If even a small proportion of junior doctors choose to vote with their feet, it would be a disaster for the NHS, coming at a time when we need more doctors, not fewer, to meet rising demand on services.”

The 4,129 respondents were asked: “If this new contract proposal goes through for August 2016, would you as a doctor leave the NHS?”. Some 1,733 (42%) said they would leave to work abroad, notably in Australia or New Zealand. Another 731 (17.7%) said they would leave the NHS and change career, and 485 (11.7%) said they would leave to work privately as a locum doctor.

“Of the 70% of doctors declaring their intention to leave the NHS if the contract goes ahead, only a small fraction need to follow through to deliver a catastrophic blow to the survival of the NHS as we know it. Patients will find their already understaffed A&E or GP practice stretched beyond the limit,” said Dr Anne Warrington, who co-organised last weekend’s rally and the online survey.

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The number of junior doctors potentially turning their backs on the health service is much much worse than previously estimated. Many of the medical royal colleges, which represent different types of doctors, have warned that many junior doctors feel so angry and alienated by Hunt’s plan that they will choose to work elsewhere, exacerbating the already worsening shortages of medical staff across the NHS.

The Department of Health (DH) declined to respond directly to the findings. But a spokeswoman said: “We recognise the incredible contribution junior doctors make to the NHS week in, week out, which is why we want to reward them fairly while ensuring that patients get proper seven-day care.

“It is disappointing the BMA continues to mislead junior doctors on the proposals as we have already given absolute assurances that we are not going to save a penny from the junior doctors’ paybill, and will reduce the number of hours doctors are asked to work.”

The DH appealed to the JDC to re-enter negotiations over the contract, which the union claims is unfair and unsafe for patients and doctors.

Meanwhile, the health minister responsible for negotiating with junior doctors, Ben Gummer, is under fire for wrongly telling a fellow Conservative MP that junior doctors can currently opt out of working at weekends and in the evenings and overnight.

In a reply to Simon Burns, a health minister under the coalition, Gummer wrote: “We want to remove the opt-out from weekend, evening and night working in contracts for newly qualified hospital doctors, so that hospitals arrange their staff rotas evenly though the week and improve provision for junior doctors’ training.”

However, the 45,000 junior doctors in England – all those below consultant level – do not have such a right. Consultants can refuse to do non-emergency work outside of normal weekday working hours but are in ongoing talks with the DH to give that up.

• A total of 4,129 junior doctors of all grades in England responded to the online survey, which was conducted using kwiksurveys.com. All respondents were members of the junior doctors contract forum, a closed group on Facebook, which has about 50,000 members, including doctors and medical students.