Naji Dahi

June 30, 2015

(ANTIMEDIA) Three days ago, Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey, announced that Turkey will not allow the creation of a Kurdish state on its south and south eastern border with Syria. As Reuters reported, he said,

“We will never allow the establishment of a state in Syria’s north and our south. We will continue our fight in this regard no matter what it costs…They want to complete the operation to change the demographic structure of the region. We will not turn a blind eye to this.”

Yesterday, Turkey’s National Security Council met to consider a plan to send 18,000 troops into northern Syria to establish a buffer zone there. The buffer zone would be 30 kilometers deep and 100 kilometers wide. The primary reason for the buffer zone is to thwart any attempt by Syria’s Kurds to establish an independent canton or state in the region (13 million Kurds in Turkey, 6.9 million in Iran, 5.6 million in Iraq, and 2 million in Syria). Turkey is fearful that the establishment of an independent (or quasi-independent) Kurdish-dominated region in northern Syria will lead to demands for autonomy from its own 13 million Kurds.

The organization leading the Kurds in Syria is known as the YPG, the Kurdish or People’s Defense Units. They are protecting the regions in northeast and north central Syria from ISIS and other Syrian factions involved in the Syrian Civil War. The YPG has been linked to the PKK, the Turkish-based Kurdistan Workers Party. The PKK is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union.

The YPG is the only military force in northern Syria that has been effective at fighting ISIS. When the fight for the northern border town of Kobane started, the YPG was proved superior at coordinating its attacks with U.S. air strikes. They have successfully defended Kobane and the Kurdish enclave in northeastern Syria. According to Janes,

“Currently engaged in combat against the IS on five front lines across northern Syria, the YPG is perhaps one of the only forces that knows how to take on the extremists at their own game…The key to its success is autonomy. Although operating under an overarching tactical rubric, YPG brigades are inculcated with a high degree of freedom and can adapt to the changing battlefield…The YPG relies heavily on snipers, backed by mobile support weaponry (mainly 12.7 mm Russian-issue heavy machine guns) that carve up the battlefield and suppress enemy fire. It also uses roadside bombs to limit enemy movement and prevent outflanking manoeuvres, particularly at night.”

After their successful defense of Kobane, the U.S. military figured out that YPG was the only fighting force that made good use of U.S. air support in the war against ISIS. The U.S. is now pushing for the establishment of a united northern region in Syria under the control of the YPG. This would have the dual effect of fighting ISIS and preventing the movement of supplies and weapons to the organization across the long, porous border between Turkey and Syria.

Turkey opposes the U.S. plan and is creating a plan of its own. But invading Syria and establishing a buffer zone is fraught with danger and unintended consequences. History shows that countries that intervene in other countries’ civil wars are often sucked into the quagmire and have serious trouble extricating themselves. It happened to the United States when it involved itself in Vietnam’s civil war (it is currently the case for the U.S. amidst civil war in Afghanistan). It happened to the U.S.S.R. when it got involved in Afghanistan’s civil war, to Israel when it invaded Lebanon and created a buffer zone in the southern part of the country, and to Ethiopia when it invaded Somalia to crush the Shabab Islamic militia. It took Ethiopia 4 years, Israel 22 years, the U.S.S.R. 10 years, and the U.S. 14 years to extricate themselves.

It stands to reason that if Turkey invades Syria and sets up its buffer zone, it will stay in that buffer zone for a very long time. Its military will incur a slow, agonizing number of casualties and its economy will suffer—along with the Turkish people.

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