Fernando Alonso has a major opportunity to overhaul Sebastian Vettel’s 13-point championship lead in a single race in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Vettel will start the race from the pit lane after being penalised for having insufficient fuel available for a sample following qualifying.

Two years ago Vettel snatched the championship from Alonso at this very track. Now Alonso has a chance to claim payback and stake his claim on the 2012 crown.

The start

Vettel’s demise means there are now four different cars in the top four places on the grid: McLaren, Red Bull, Williams and Lotus. The highest Ferrari, that of Alonso, is only sixth, and his start will be critical to how his race develops.

The run to the first corner is short at just 300m and the pole sitter has never lost the lead between the grid and the first corner. Even so Lewis Hamilton, who started from pole here in 2009, is anxious about making a clean getaway:

“At the start, it?������s down to the team to make sure the clutch performs perfectly because the getaway will be incredibly important. Our race pace is very strong, but so is Red Bull’s ?����ǣ and staying ahead will be tough, particularly with the double DRS zones.”

The only good news for Vettel is he won’t have to go through turn two on the first lap, which was where his race went wrong last year. As the field scream through the first two corners he will negotiate Abu Dhabi’s unusual underground pit exit and then go sprinting after them.

Strategy

How Vettel’s race unfolds from there will be shaped to a large degree by how well-equipped the Red Bull RB8 is for overtaking. As we’ve seen in recent races the car is conceived around taking pole position and pulling away from the field. Straight-line speed isn’t its strong point (see below).

This was particularly clear in Belgium, where Vettel did a superb job to climb from 12th at the end of lap one to finish second. He struggled to pass cars in the DRS zone, but was able to use the RB8’s superior downforce to close on cars through the high-speed Blanchimont and make passes at the chicane.

Though he should have little difficulty picking off the stragglers in the DRS zone, Vettel may have to get creative once he finds himself in the midfield. Merely getting into the lower reaches of the points may prove a challenge.

As his car has been taken out of parc ferme and will start from the pits the team may be able to make some set-up changes to help him. But they’re unlikely to be able to radically transform the car’s top speed.

One factor that would considerably aid Vettel’s progress is a safety car deployment. That would close the field up and bring him closer to the cars in front. However in the past three races here it’s only come out once.

As the tyre selection for this race is again on the conservative side we are likely to see drivers making single stops for tyres during the race. This may give Vettel a strategic opportunity to gain places using an aggressive two-stop strategy.

There wasn’t much to separate the front-runners on their race fuel stints during second practice. However Raikkonen (speaking before Vettel’s penalty) believes his car is quick enough to take on those in front of him: “The car hasn?������t felt fantastic all weekend but we decided we weren?������t going to change the car?������s set-up from where it was for the last race.

“It was the right choice because in the end the circuit came to us in qualifying where the car was the best it has been so far here. We?������ll give tomorrow our best shot; Let?������s see if we can make a good start to get right behind the Red Bulls, and then we?������ll see what happens after that.”

Qualifying times in full

Vettel’s penalty is a lifeline for Alonso. His championship chances initially suffered a setback in qualifying as he could only manage seventh. Technical director Pat Fry admitted that despite breaking the curfew twice and bringing a stack of new parts the team had not found the gains they needed:

“We had brought various updates here, some only fitted to Fernando?������s car, because we do not yet have enough of them for both. Unfortunately, the whole package did not work the way we had expected before coming here, at least relative to the progress that the other teams have made.

“Both Felipe and Fernando did the maximum they could: unfortunately they had already reached the limit in Q2, which explains why it?������s not by chance that Fernando did practically the same time three times in a row, while the others raised the bar in Q3.”

Sector times

Jenson Button was surprised at his gap to Hamilton, most of which came in the last sector, where Hamilton has tended to be strong:

“I shouldn?������t really be starting this far back,” Button admitted. “All weekend, I?������ve been pretty happy with the car, but, for some reason, we just couldn?������t find the pace in qualifying ?����ǣ and we don?������t know why.

“Obviously, our car is very quick around here ?����ǣ Lewis put it on pole by quite a margin ?����ǣ so there?������s some more time to find.”

Speed trap

Alonso’s strong straight-line speed was a major factor of his strong race in India.

But if anyone should feel confident about making passes tomorrow it’s Pastor Maldonado, who was comfortably the quickest in a straight line during qualifying.

Abu Dhabi has two DRS zones on consecutive straights, each with their own activation point. This may make it possible for a driver who is overtaken in the first DRS zone to re-pass in the second, as we saw last year.

Over to you

Can Alonso make it onto the podium? Where will Vettel finish after starting from the pit lane? And who will be leading the world championship in 24 hours’ time?

Share your views on the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in the comments.

2012 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Images ?�?� Ferrari spa/Ercole Colombo, Red Bull/Getty images