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1. Playing the long game

During the conference realignment hullabaloo, Conference USA basically tried to stake out territory.

In 2010, before the shuffling began, the conference was the proposed Metro Conference minus the power teams; you had a few major media markets (Houston via Houston and Rice, Memphis, Dallas via SMU, New Orleans via Tulane, Orlando via UCF), with some respectable mid-majors and medium-sized markets (ECU, Marshall, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UAB, UTEP). It was always a conference based more on metro areas than small college towns, but it wasn't the blatant goal.

The short version (Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports)



2016 projected wins: 5.1



Projected S&P+ ranking: 111 (7 in Conference USA)



5-year recruiting ranking: 120 (12 in Conference USA)



Biggest strength: The secondary is fast, experienced, and deep, and it's got a nice pass rush working for it.



Biggest question mark: Can ODU actually force opponents to pass, or will last year's leaky run defense tamp potential again?



Biggest 2016 game: at Charlotte (Oct. 1). ODU will probably be about 2-2 heading into October, and a win over the 49ers could spur a run to bowl eligibility.



Summary: Conference USA added Old Dominion with the vision of what a mid-major in a strong recruiting area could become. ODU has shown flashes of strong play, and if the injury bug is kinder, the Monarchs could make a run. 5.1: 111 (7 in Conference USA): 120 (12 in Conference USA): The secondary is fast, experienced, and deep, and it's got a nice pass rush working for it.: Can ODU actually force opponents to pass, or will last year's leaky run defense tamp potential again?: at Charlotte (Oct. 1). ODU will probably be about 2-2 heading into October, and a win over the 49ers could spur a run to bowl eligibility.Conference USA added Old Dominion with the vision of what a mid-major in a strong recruiting area could become. ODU has shown flashes of strong play, and if the injury bug is kinder, the Monarchs could make a run.

Now look at it. ECU, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and UCF were plucked away by what is now the AAC. And in an effort to remain at 12 teams, C-USA took two steps.

A. Raid the Sun Belt. FAU, FIU, MTSU, North Texas, and Western Kentucky, half of the 2010 SBC, are now in Conference USA. (C-USA also saved Louisiana Tech from the WAC.)

B. Dream big with FCS programs and start-ups. Charlotte started a program and got immediate inclusion. UTSA got the call-up after just two seasons as a program. And Old Dominion, deep in the talent-rich Norfolk-Newport News-Hampton-Virginia Beach corridor, moved up from FCS.

From a territory perspective, these moves made perfect sense. C-USA now has flag posts near many of football's talent bases -- Dallas (UNT), San Antonio (UTSA), Houston (Rice), Miami (FIU, FAU), Charlotte (UC), and Norfolk-and-thereabouts (ODU). This seems like a good thing, and even if the cable television bubble is deflating, it can't hurt from the perspective of TV revenue.

Now it just has to wait for the football to improve. Between the addition of slow-building start-ups and the 2015 collapses of UNT, UTEP, and Rice, Conference USA's product was dreadful last fall, worse even than the Sun Belt, which added solid former FCS programs like Appalachian State and Georgia Southern.

Injuries and youth played a role in C-USA's miserable form -- in virtually every one of these previews so far, I've talked about an offense or defense that got obliterated by injury -- but the optimist would say that C-USA's moves were done with the long-term in mind.

It's the same for ODU, really. After reaching 6-6 with a dynamite offense in 2014 (57th in Off. S&P+), Bobby Wilder's Monarchs had to replace all-star quarterback Taylor Heinicke and a large portion of a bad defense. But Wilder only signed three JUCO transfers, building the foundation with mostly four-year recruits. And after injuries and youth sent the offense reeling (109th in Off. S&P+), he signed no JUCOs in the 2016 class.

ODU is, like its conference, playing the long game. And as long as you win enough in the interim, that can pay off. The Monarchs went 5-7 thanks to a combination of weak opponents (six opponents ranked 111th or worse in 2015) and a 3-1 record in one-possession games, and goodness knows C-USA isn't projected to be any better this year.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 117 | Final S&P+ Rk: 110 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Win

Expectancy vs. S&P+ Performance

vs. Vegas 5-Sep at Eastern Michigan 122 38-34 W 35% 61% -4.6 -0.5 12-Sep Norfolk State N/A 24-10 W 54% 99% -4.3 19-Sep NC State 49 14-38 L 13% 1% -10.7 -5.0 26-Sep Appalachian State 42 0-49 L 6% 0% -49.2 -41.5 3-Oct at Marshall 58 7-27 L 7% 0% -7.9 -1.5 17-Oct Charlotte 124 37-34 W 33% 60% -7.1 -4.0 24-Oct at Florida International 112 12-41 L 14% 7% -20.4 -16.5 31-Oct Western Kentucky 15 30-55 L 14% 0% -4.5 -1.0 7-Nov at UTSA 111 36-31 W 34% 48% +9.9 +15.0 14-Nov UTEP 125 31-21 W 46% 77% -1.8 +5.5 21-Nov at Southern Miss 56 31-56 L 16% 1% -3.4 -4.0 28-Nov Florida Atlantic 96 31-33 L 37% 44% +2.4 +2.0

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 21.4 109 35.2 108 Points Per Game 24.3 98 35.8 106

2. Bad against good

It seems logical that teams would fare better against bad teams than good ones, but as opponent adjustments show, that's not necessarily the case. The percentile figures above are adjusted for the quality of the team you play, and many teams will end up filling more of a "good against good, bad against bad" niche.

Most teams in Conference USA, however, did not. Perhaps because of the depth issues associated with youth and injuries, there weren't a lot of "good against good" teams. ODU's a pretty good example.

Average Percentile Performance (vs. S&P+ top 60) : 11% (record: 0-5 | average score: Opp 45, ODU 16)

: 11% (record: 0-5 | average score: Opp 45, ODU 16) Average Percentile Performance (vs. S&P+ No. 90+): 36% (record: 5-2 | average score: ODU 30, Opp 28)

The Monarchs were never great, topping the 50th percentile only once all year, but while they ended up grading in the middle of the C-USA pack because they weren't awful quite as frequently as others, they still laid some eggs. And aside from a baffling blowout loss to FIU, most of those eggs came against the teams with a pulse.

ODU had a chance to reach bowl eligibility, but a terribly slow start against FAU doomed the bid. The Owls jumped out to a 24-3 lead, and while the Monarchs surged ahead in the third quarter, two fourth-quarter field goals gave FAU a 33-31 win. From the "bad against good" perspective, the loss perhaps saved ODU from a bowl blowout, but that's small consolation. Going 5-2 against teams in FBS' lowest quadrant, instead of going 6-1, knocked the Monarchs under .500.

Offense

Q1 Rk 114 1st Down Rk 110 Q2 Rk 96 2nd Down Rk 92 Q3 Rk 95 3rd Down Rk 102 Q4 Rk 110



Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Shuler Bentley 6'1, 202 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8161 140 269 1432 12 6 52.0% 18 6.3% 4.6 David Washington 6'3, 199 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) NR 94 161 1155 8 3 58.4% 9 5.3% 6.5 Joey Verhaegh 6'3, 210 Jr. NR 0.7500 Blake LaRussa 5'10, 186 RSFr. NR NR Drayton Arnold 6'0, 185 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8013

3. Protecting your young QB

Even with Heinicke, Old Dominion's passing game was based more in efficiency than big plays. In 2014, Heinicke completed 64 percent at 12 yards per completion. But he had a big-play threat in Antonio Vaughan (16.2 yards per catch), which stretched the field a bit for efficiency options like David Washington and tight end Melvin Vaughn.

In 2015, with redshirt freshman Shuler Bentley behind center, ODU offensive coordinator Brian Scott played it safe. The Monarchs employed the "save your QB" approach of throwing frequently on standard downs and running semi-frequently on passing downs. This approach can save your young QB from having to make many big throws under pressure.

Of course, it helps if the first-down passes actually go somewhere. On first down, Bentley completed 52 percent of his throws at just 11.3 yards per completion. He was sometimes bailed out by a big run by Ray Lawry (who's been one of the nation's more explosive backs for a couple of years now) or Jeremy Cox, but the pass-first approach just resulted in a ton of passing downs and inefficiency.

In theory, things could open up in 2016. Bentley's back, as is David Washington (the part-time receiver who took over for Bentley midseason before getting hurt), and 2015 JUCO transfer Joey Verhaegh. And if the Monarchs can keep just about every skill position player from getting hurt simultaneously, as seemed to happen late in 2015, they could have enough weapons to damage opponents.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Ray Lawry RB 5'10, 201 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8402 194 1136 11 5.9 6.0 40.7% 3 2 Jeremy Cox RB 5'11, 207 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7917 72 369 1 5.1 6.1 36.1% 0 0 David Washington QB/WR 6'3, 199 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) NR 31 176 0 5.7 3.7 51.6% 5 1 Shuler Bentley QB 6'1, 202 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8161 27 90 2 3.3 5.0 25.9% 6 4 Kesean Strong RB/WR 5'10, 179 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8044 27 75 1 2.8 1.5 37.0% 2 1 Zach Pascal WR 15 165 1 11.0 12.1 53.3% 2 2 Brandon Simmons RB 5'9, 190 Jr. NR NR Nick Ferrari-Smith RB 5'9, 186 RSFr. NR NR

















Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate Yds/

Target %SD Success

Rate IsoPPP Zach Pascal WR 6'2, 214 Sr. NR NR 120 69 975 57.5% 30.4% 8.1 58.3% 45.8% 1.68 Jonathan Duhart WR 6'3, 212 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7733 80 47 636 58.8% 20.3% 8.0 61.3% 48.8% 1.54 Blair Roberts

(2013) WR 6'2, 203 Sr. NR NR N/A 46 560 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Melvin Vaughn

(2014) TE 6'2, 253 Jr. NR 0.7000 47 30 315 63.8% 11.0% 6.7 59.6% N/A N/A Marques Little WR 5'9, 176 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8085 42 23 221 54.8% 10.6% 5.3 66.7% 35.7% 1.44 Ray Lawry RB 5'10, 201 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8402 27 21 152 77.8% 6.8% 5.6 37.0% 22.2% 2.29 Jeremy Cox RB 5'11, 207 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7917 22 20 99 90.9% 5.6% 4.5 54.5% 27.3% 1.52 Vincent Lowe RB 19 15 117 78.9% 4.8% 6.2 84.2% 47.4% 1.13 David Washington QB/WR 6'3, 199 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) NR 19 8 67 42.1% 4.8% 3.5 47.4% 26.3% 1.16 Kesean Strong RB/WR 5'10, 179 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8044 15 6 46 40.0% 3.8% 3.1 53.3% 20.0% 1.22 Nick England WR 6'0, 179 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.6722 13 7 70 53.8% 3.3% 5.4 38.5% 46.2% 0.90 Eri'Reon Hayes WR 6'2, 212 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7856 12 7 115 58.3% 3.0% 9.6 66.7% 50.0% 1.77 Travis Fulgham WR 6'3, 206 So. NR NR 10 6 89 60.0% 2.5% 8.9 70.0% 50.0% 1.46 Isaiah Harper WR 5'9, 167 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7744 7 4 28 57.1% 1.8% 4.0 71.4% 28.6% 1.42 T.J. Boothe WR 6'2, 215 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8260 Adam Swann TE 6'5, 237 So. NR 0.8100 Quintin Reynolds WR 6'0, 183 So. NR NR Noah Ellison WR 6'2, 185 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8315 Scott McCluney WR 6'1, 185 Fr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8200 Marcus Joyner TE 6'2, 250 Fr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8200

4. Depth chart wreckage

ODU's final depth chart was missing a few guys. Washington's passer rating had topped 135 against both UTSA and UTEP, but he was out. Lawry was limited. Projected starting receiver Blair Roberts and tight end Melvin Vaughn had been out all year. The offensive line was on its seventh different starting lineup of the year.

We didn't ever get to see the intended ODU offense in 2015. And for all we know, we might not in 2016 either.

We also don't know what the intended lineup will be. While Lawry and Cox give the Monarchs a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield, and while six of the eight linemen who started at least two games are back, we still don't know about the plans at QB, and we don't know if or how much the Monarchs can count on Roberts (who has missed two seasons with injury now) or Vaughn (a decent possession guy). Sophomore Kaesean Strong was a three-star recruit per the 247Sports Composite, and sophomore Eri'Reon Hayes showed some late-season flashes, but this is a unit full of unknowns. It might be smart to run the ball quite a bit.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. 2015 Starts Career Starts Honors/Notes Connor Mewbourne LT 10 30

Tyler Fisher LG 6'3, 317 Sr. NR 0.7000 7 24

Tyler Burns RG 12 17

Troy Butler LG 6'3, 313 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7333 9 15

Darius Garcia RT 6'3, 315 Jr. NR 0.7000 3 12

Tyler Compton RG 6'4, 304 Sr. NR NR 2 10

Nick Clarke C 6'4, 301 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7511 9 9

Chad Hendricks RT 6'6, 280 So. NR NR 4 4

Eric Hampson LT 6'5, 288 Jr. NR 0.7700 0 0

Manuel Matiarena LG 6'4, 307 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7583 0 0

Cullen Casey RT 6'4, 295 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8001 0 0

Isaac Weaver OL 6'6, 275 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8100







5. Injuries usually heal

First, ODU trotted out a line that consisted of Darius Garcia at left tackle, Tyler Fisher at left guard, Tyler Compton at center, Tyler Burns at right guard, and Connor Mewbourne at right tackle. Then Nick Clarke and Troy Butler replaced Compton and Mewbourne. Then Mewbourne replaced Garcia for a game. Then Garcia replaced Butler and Mewbourne took over again on the left. Then Compton and Clarke replaced Fisher and Butler. And Hendricks replaced Garcia.

Only Burns started all 12 games. The ODU offensive line was never settled until November, and ODU didn't reap the rewards of line continuity because of injury issues elsewhere. Every team deals with injuries, but a little bit of continuity would go a long way.

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Defense

Q1 Rk 113 1st Down Rk 112 Q2 Rk 97 2nd Down Rk 116 Q3 Rk 105 3rd Down Rk 92 Q4 Rk 99

6. The defense didn't pick up enough slack

In 2014, ODU was held back by a defense that wasn't FBS-ready. The Monarchs allowed at least 40 points in each of their six losses, allowed 5,426 yards for the season, and ranked 125th in Def. S&P+.

They already needed to improve simply because they were bad; when the offense began to fall apart, that put even more pressure on the unit.

Technically, it did improve. ODU rose to 108th in Def. S&P+, powered (relatively speaking) by the combination of a decent pass rush and solid big-play prevention on passing downs. They had to force passing downs first, which continued to be an issue, but once they did, they showed some skill.

Last year's relative strengths could turn into actual strengths. Three-quarters of the starting line returns -- an all-name trio of Rashaad Coward, Bunmi Rotimi, and Oshane Ximines (combined: 16 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, six pass break-ups) -- along with lanky pass rusher Tim Ward. And active, aggressive corners Aaron Young and Brandon Addison (combined: 3.5 tackles for loss, 20 passes defensed) are back as well.

The questions, then, are about the run defense. There was drastic youth on the defensive line, where seven of 13 contributors were freshmen or redshirt freshmen and Rotimi was a sophomore. And interesting youth could lead to better linebacker depth -- sophomore Isaiah Worthy returns from a redshirt, and redshirt freshmen Casey Bernard and Derek Wilder were among the top-rated players in ODU's 2015 signing class. (Two more incoming freshmen were 247 three-stars as well.) ODU has decent potential here, but the Monarchs' next good FBS-level run defense will be their first.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Rashaad Coward NT 6'5, 307 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8059 12 33.5 4.6% 2.5 1.5 0 0 0 0 Bunmi Rotimi DT 6'4, 280 Jr. NR NR 12 24.5 3.4% 6.0 3.5 0 2 0 0 Oshane Ximines STUD 6'3, 240 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8035 12 22.0 3.0% 7.5 5.0 0 4 0 0 Poncho Barnwell DE 12 21.5 3.0% 4.5 2.0 0 1 0 0 Miles Fox DT 6'1, 281 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8295 12 17.0 2.4% 3.0 0.5 0 0 1 0 Scott Wiggins STUD 6'3, 230 Sr. NR NR 12 16.0 2.2% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Tim Ward DE 6'6, 226 So. NR 0.7633 12 15.0 2.1% 5.0 2.5 1 3 0 0 Terrell Reid STUD 6'2, 274 Sr. NR NR 10 5.5 0.8% 1.5 1.0 0 0 1 0 Jude Brenya DE 6'3, 256 Sr. NR 0.7000 12 5.5 0.8% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Pat Toal NT 6'4, 307 So. NR 0.7733 11 5.0 0.7% 1.5 0.0 0 0 1 0 Daniel Appouh DE 6'4, 246 So. NR 0.8800 9 2.5 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Torrez Wentz DT 6'2, 276 So. NR 0.7500 3 2.5 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Brandon Tyson NT 6'1, 335 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7994 8 1.5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Galen Evans DT 6'3, 284 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) NR Ryan Londree DT 6'3, 260 So. NR 0.7500 Mufu Taiwo DT 6'5, 293 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7806



















7. The makings of a good pass rush

Ximines took to the STUD position with aplomb. Granted, he wore down in November -- zero tackles for loss in the last four games -- but he's got obvious potential. We'll see if Ward is able to add a little bit more beef to his frame, but these two could form nice bookend pass rushers, and they could get some occasional blitz help from linebackers like TJ Ricks.

The problem comes in stopping the run. The ends are awfully small, and while Coward made quite a few plays for his size (he was the seventh-leading tackler, which is pretty high for a nose tackle), he evidently didn't make enough of them.

There is plenty of beef further down the depth chart. Sophomores Pat Toal and Brandon Tyson could be ready for a heavier load, and redshirt freshman Mufu Taiwo could join the rotation as well. It appears there are plenty of options here, but we still have to see if there's actual talent. ODU ranked 126th in Success Rate+ last year, and nothing quells a solid pass rush more than not having opportunities to actually rush the passer.

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR TJ Ricks MLB 6'0, 226 Sr. NR NR 12 85.0 11.8% 4.5 2.5 1 7 1 1 Martez Simpson OLB 12 57.0 7.9% 7.0 2.0 0 0 1 1 Shadow Williams OLB 6'0, 216 Sr. NR 0.7800 12 31.0 4.3% 4.5 1.0 0 0 1 0 Marvin Branch OLB 6'2, 224 So. NR NR 12 20.0 2.8% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 1 Anthony Wilson MLB 6'1, 214 Sr. NR NR 10 17.0 2.4% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0 0 Isaiah Worthy (2014) LB 6'1, 236 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8033 9 14.5 2.0% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Malique Johnson OLB 12 12.5 1.7% 1.5 1.5 0 1 1 0 Kohl Adams-Hurd LB 6 8.0 1.1% 0.5 0.0 0 1 1 0 Richard Thomas OLB 6'0, 224 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7500 Casey Bernard LB 6'2, 232 RSFr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8300 Derek Wilder LB 6'1, 248 RSFr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8044 Jaylin Jeffries LB 6'0, 237 RSFr. NR 0.7633 Lawrence Garner LB 6'2, 218 Fr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8200 Zach Lackman LB 6'2, 230 Fr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8100



















Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Fellonte Misher SS 12 73.5 10.2% 1.5 0.5 4 5 2 0 Justice Davila FS 6'0, 191 Jr. NR 0.7822 11 63.5 8.8% 0 0 0 4 0 0 Aaron Young CB 5'11, 185 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7956 12 48.0 6.6% 2.5 1.5 1 8 0 0 Sean Carter FS 6'1, 196 So. NR NR 12 38.5 5.3% 0 0 0 1 0 1 Brandon Addison CB 5'10, 177 So. NR NR 12 33.0 4.6% 1 0 0 11 0 0 C.J. Bradshaw SS 5'10, 182 Sr. NR NR 12 21.0 2.9% 0.5 0 1 2 0 0 Christian Byrum (2014) S 6'1, 186 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8091 9 16.5 2.3% 0 0 2 0 0 0 Aquante Thornton CB 12 6.5 0.9% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rob Thompson FS 6'1, 185 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) NR 5 5.5 0.8% 0 0 0 1 0 0 Justin Noye S 6'1, 202 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8367 12 3.5 0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Devon Brown CB NR 10 2.0 0.3% 0 0 0 1 0 0 Andre Bernhard DB 6'2, 193 Jr. NR NR R.J. Brown CB 6'0, 193 Jr. NR NR Jordan Glover CB 5'11, 175 So. NR NR Jamez Brickhouse CB 5'10, 176 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8321 Jelani Carter DB 6'1, 190 Fr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7885 Elijah Blue CB 6'0, 180 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7817 Joe Joe Headen CB 5'10, 170 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7932

8. The secondary did its part

Strong safety Fellonte Misher turned into a solid play-maker in his senior season, but he's basically the only player to replace from last year's secondary. That could mean very good things. Young and Anderson are small but aggressive, and between sophomores Sean Carter, Christian Byrum and Justin Noye, junior Rob Thompson, and senior C.J. Bradshaw, the odds of finding a decent Misher replacement are high.

Plus, Wilder has recruited DBs better than perhaps any other unit. Per 247, Noye and Byrum were both three-star recruits, as was redshirt freshman corner (and another all-name candidate) Jamez Brickhouse. And incoming freshman Elijah Blue was a Rivals three-star, for what that's worth. There are plenty of athletes to be found in Virginia, and Wilder's found a few in the 6'0, 180-pound range. Especially with this pass rush, ODU's secondary should again be a strength.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2016

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Satchel Ziffer



61 40.2 1 7 12 31.1% Jarrett Cervi 3 34.3 1 2 2 133.3%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Chris Kirtley 6'1, 191 So. 27 51.4 1 1 3.7% Ricky Segers 5'11, 204 Sr. 20 60.0 0 1 0.0%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Chris Kirtley 6'1, 191 So. 21-23 6-8 75.0% 4-5 80.0% Ricky Segers 5'11, 204 Sr. 5-5 1-2 50.0% 0-1 0.0% Satchel Ziffer



5-5 1-1 100.0% 0-0 N/A

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Returns Avg. TD Zach Pascal KR 6'2, 214 Sr. 20 20.7 0 Marques Little KR 5'9, 176 Jr. 13 18.1 0 Marques Little PR 5'9, 176 Jr. 15 2.3 0

Category Rk Special Teams S&P+ 121 Field Goal Efficiency 94 Punt Return Success Rate 115 Kick Return Success Rate 50 Punt Success Rate 117 Kickoff Success Rate 128

9. Wanted: Legs

ODU was not only working with a thin, inefficient offense and sketchy run defense; it was also working with an awful special teams unit. Kick returns were decent, and freshman kicker Chris Kirtley at least showed a decent leg (4-for-5 on field goals 40 or longer), but punt returns were nonexistent, only four percent of Kirtley's kickoffs resulted in touchbacks, and the Monarchs were 104th in net punting.

The result of poor special teams and an efficiency disadvantage: horrendous field position. ODU's field position margin was minus-7.8 yards per possession, worst in C-USA and second-worst in FBS. The field was tilted all year, which honestly makes it a bit of a miracle that ODU even reached 5-7.

Just about everybody's back in the special teams unit. That might be good, and it might not.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 3-Sep Hampton NR 21.6 89% 10-Sep at Appalachian State 59 -18.8 14% 17-Sep at N.C. State 40 -22.5 10% 24-Sep UTSA 116 5.0 61% 1-Oct at Charlotte 123 -0.2 50% 8-Oct Massachusetts 127 9.0 70% 22-Oct at Western Kentucky 45 -20.8 12% 29-Oct at UTEP 126 1.8 54% 5-Nov Marshall 75 -8.6 31% 12-Nov Southern Miss 72 -9.0 30% 19-Nov at Florida Atlantic 100 -7.4 33% 26-Nov Florida International 113 4.5 60% Projected wins: 5.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk -23.7% (103) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 113 / 120 2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -1 / -0.6 2015 TO Luck/Game -0.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 71% (65%, 76%) 2015 Second-order wins (difference) 4.0 (1.0)

10. At least a 50 percent chance in six games

That ODU indeed went 5-7 last year is a reminder that there are wins to be found in Conference USA no matter your flaws. And despite a non-conference slate that features trips to both Appalachian State and NC State, ODU still faces seven opponents projected 100th or worse in 2016. And as you see above, ODU is given at least a 50 percent chance of winning in six different games.

As I end up saying in basically every C-USA team preview, if this team exceeds the expectations set by last season's numbers -- and one of these teams will -- the path to seven or eight wins is pretty clear. For ODU, that means establishing what could be a solid run game and allowing a strong pass defense to shine by occasionally making stops against the run.

It could certainly happen. I like Ray Lawry and Jeremy Cox in the backfield, and between David Washington, Shuler Bentley, and last year's understudies, there's a chance a decent quarterback emerges. With stability and experience, both lines could improve, and the secondary could turn into a genuine strength. But as with much of this conference, this team has to earn the benefit of the doubt.