Last week was "Jump to Conclusions" week, where just one game told the media everything they needed to know. This week, we have twice as many games in our sample size, so naturally it's time to over correct.

What did we learn last week? Not a whole lot if this week's rankings are any indication. Some teams looked impressive in Week 1, then stunk up the joint in Week 2. Which team is likely to show up for the rest of the season? Who knows?

What I do know this week: we have some pretty good notable quotes.

Notable Quotes

The most important number for San Diego in Week 2 was not the final score of its loss to Cincinnati (24-19), but rather Melvin Gordon's per-carry average—5.5. He was far more explosive with the ball in his hands than he had been a week earlier. Assuming he maintains his forward momentum, this is an offensive juggernaut in waiting. - Sports Illustrated

The most accurate quarterback in the league has been Philip Rivers, with an accuracy percentage of 89.6; that’s over five percent more than the second-most accurate quarterback. He’s also a perfect 17-for-17 on his play-action passes. - ProFootballFocus

San Diego hung around long enough to make a drive to try to win it on Sunday. Tough to tell whether Philip Rivers saw Vincent Rey dropping into the zone on that fateful interception toward the end. The key sequence in the game had to be the Andy Dalton fumble that was called an incomplete pass -- hello, Tuck Rule -- which preceded Mike McCoy deciding to let the final 50 seconds of the first half run without calling a defensive timeout to get Rivers the ball back. Give your Hall of Fame quarterback (there, I said it) a shot there, Mike. - NFL.com

Division Averages

Division Week 2 Average Week 3 Average Difference AFC East 10.600 9.643 0.957 AFC West 13.825 13.417 0.408 AFC North 16.075 13.524 2.551 NFC West 10.949 14.029 -3.080 NFC East 17.950 18.750 -0.800 NFC North 17.825 18.750 -0.925 NFC South 22.425 20.643 1.782 AFC South 21.838 23.214 -1.376

Stock Rising

Team Week 2 Average Week 3 Average Difference NYJ 16.768 8.861 7.907 PIT 14.949 7.278 7.671 CLE 29.308 23.500 5.808 ATL 18.480 12.792 5.688 MIN 23.616 18.056 5.560

Stock Falling

All NFC teams ...

Team Week 2 Average Week 3 Average Difference PHI 13.879 19.292 -5.413 STL 14.369 19.764 -5.395 SEA 6.085 11.167 -5.082 NO 23.980 28.417 -4.437 CHI 26.374 30.708 -4.334

Subjective Average

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1.333 -0.060 Packers 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1.667 0.060 Broncos 5 3 6 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.583 0.417 Cardinals 3 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 10 5 4.500 1.318 Bengals 6 6 5 5 5 6 4 6 8 5 4 4 5.333 3.213 Steelers 4 11 7 6 14 12 8 5 7 6 13 7 8.333 5.122 Cowboys 12 5 3 17 6 4 13 7 6 12 11 6 8.500 -2.954 Chiefs 10 12 9 10 11 8 6 14 5 8 7 12 9.333 -0.333 Seahawks 7 13 11 8 10 10 11 9 16 7 6 8 9.667 -4.121 Falcons 11 7 12 9 9 11 10 10 12 9 8 11 9.917 7.265 Jets 9 10 10 15 7 14 9 11 10 13 5 9 10.167 10.924 Bills 8 8 13 11 13 7 7 12 9 10 17 13 10.667 -2.031 Panthers 14 9 8 7 12 13 14 8 11 14 20 10 11.667 5.060 Chargers 13 14 16 13 8 17 12 15 14 11 14 14 13.417 -0.871 Vikings 16 15 14 12 16 19 16 17 13 20 22 16 16.333 7.122 Ravens 17 19 15 14 19 9 22 19 19 15 16 17 16.750 -5.386 Dolphins 15 18 23 18 15 15 19 13 22 17 12 18 17.083 -3.628 Colts 18 16 17 16 17 21 17 20 20 16 9 19 17.167 -6.985 Rams 19 17 27 20 18 16 15 18 15 18 19 15 18.083 -4.719 49ers 20 21 21 23 21 18 23 16 18 21 26 20 20.667 -2.121 Redskins 23 20 26 19 20 28 20 22 17 24 30 21 22.500 6.227 Eagles 22 22 20 22 24 30 28 21 21 22 15 24 22.583 -7.492 Lions 24 25 19 26 22 27 24 29 23 19 23 23 23.667 -4.031 Giants 26 24 18 25 25 26 27 28 26 23 18 27 24.417 -1.690 Browns 21 30 24 31 23 20 25 25 27 25 24 25 25.000 4.727 Raiders 28 23 28 21 26 25 21 24 28 27 29 26 25.500 4.864 Jaguars 31 26 22 24 28 24 18 23 29 28 27 28 25.667 3.697 Titans 27 27 25 27 29 23 26 26 32 26 25 22 26.250 -1.614 Texans 25 28 31 29 27 22 29 31 24 29 28 30 27.750 -3.023 Buccaneers 29 29 29 28 30 29 30 27 30 30 31 29 29.250 2.477 Saints 30 31 32 30 31 31 31 30 25 31 21 31 29.500 -6.318 Bears 32 32 30 32 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 31.750 -5.114

Observations:

Patriots and Packers are your consensus 1-2 teams. No other teams got a first- or second-place vote (which is why if you add their average rankings together, it's an even 3.000).

Packers rose as much as Pats dropped. So that tells you the Packers stole a vote from the Patriots.

Pretty good consensus of the Broncos being the #3 seed. Though, 3 of the 12 subjective rankings have them elsewhere.

Chris Burke over at SI holding on to his belief that the Chargers are a top-8 team. Maybe he's to thank for keeping the Chargers elevated above the rest of the league with the sharp delineation between the Chargers' and Vikings' average rankings.

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Saints and Bears as the bottom two teams? Woof.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value Packers 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 0.471 0.026 Patriots 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 0.471 0.026 Bears 32 32 30 32 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 0.595 -0.176 Buccaneers 29 29 29 28 30 29 30 27 30 30 31 29 1.010 0.393 Broncos 5 3 6 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 1.038 -0.771 Bengals 6 6 5 5 5 6 4 6 8 5 4 4 1.106 -1.320 Falcons 11 7 12 9 9 11 10 10 12 9 8 11 1.498 0.232 Cardinals 3 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 10 5 1.756 0.007 Chargers 13 14 16 13 8 17 12 15 14 11 14 14 2.253 -0.283 Titans 27 27 25 27 29 23 26 26 32 26 25 22 2.488 0.665 49ers 20 21 21 23 21 18 23 16 18 21 26 20 2.528 0.701 Chiefs 10 12 9 10 11 8 6 14 5 8 7 12 2.560 -1.206 Raiders 28 23 28 21 26 25 21 24 28 27 29 26 2.630 1.987 Texans 25 28 31 29 27 22 29 31 24 29 28 30 2.681 1.080 Jets 9 10 10 15 7 14 9 11 10 13 5 9 2.703 0.428 Seahawks 7 13 11 8 10 10 11 9 16 7 6 8 2.718 0.368 Vikings 16 15 14 12 16 19 16 17 13 20 22 16 2.749 0.644 Lions 24 25 19 26 22 27 24 29 23 19 23 23 2.809 0.206 Bills 8 8 13 11 13 7 7 12 9 10 17 13 2.925 0.322 Colts 18 16 17 16 17 21 17 20 20 16 9 19 2.967 0.759 Browns 21 30 24 31 23 20 25 25 27 25 24 25 3.055 1.572 Saints 30 31 32 30 31 31 31 30 25 31 21 31 3.069 1.803 Giants 26 24 18 25 25 26 27 28 26 23 18 27 3.148 1.492 Rams 19 17 27 20 18 16 15 18 15 18 19 15 3.148 0.343 Steelers 4 11 7 6 14 12 8 5 7 6 13 7 3.171 -0.223 Dolphins 15 18 23 18 15 15 19 13 22 17 12 18 3.174 0.432 Ravens 17 19 15 14 19 9 22 19 19 15 16 17 3.192 -0.118 Jaguars 31 26 22 24 28 24 18 23 29 28 27 28 3.448 2.150 Panthers 14 9 8 7 12 13 14 8 11 14 20 10 3.496 0.246 Eagles 22 22 20 22 24 30 28 21 21 22 15 24 3.639 -0.186 Redskins 23 20 26 19 20 28 20 22 17 24 30 21 3.708 2.958 Cowboys 12 5 3 17 6 4 13 7 6 12 11 6 4.153 1.922

Observations:

So like I said above, it's time to over correct, right? 2/3rds of the teams this week saw their subjective Standard Deviation rise. That means consensus among the rankers has gone down, and our rankings are less consistent.

Like I pointed out: the Packers and Patriots are pretty interchangeable at 1-2.

Bears were two votes shy of being the unanimous 32 team. Maybe dreams will come true for fans in Chicago and the Bears make it unanimous next week.

7 of the 11 least consistently-ranked teams are NFC teams.

Objective Average

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR Massey ARGH FPI Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 3 2 12 1 1 1 2 2.667 1.666 Broncos 3 3 2 8 2 11 2 2 7 4.444 1.112 Steelers 4 6 8 4 6 3 9 12 4 6.222 10.222 Bengals 6 5 7 6 7 9 5 4 9 6.444 -0.444 Packers 5 2 1 9 10 29 3 3 1 7.000 -2.667 Cardinals 2 8 6 5 3 24 6 5 5 7.111 2.222 Jets 8 12 11 1 1 2 7 14 12 7.556 4.888 Cowboys 21 9 5 11 8 13 4 9 17 10.778 1.889 Panthers 12 17 15 3 9 15 12 8 15 11.778 2.889 Bills 19 16 14 14 11 4 8 10 11 11.889 -2.556 Chiefs 10 7 9 15 25 18 10 6 13 12.556 -5.223 Seahawks 7 4 4 29 18 31 11 7 3 12.667 -6.042 Chargers 13 14 13 16 14 12 13 11 16 13.556 -0.889 Dolphins 17 10 10 12 17 25 18 17 14 15.556 -1.778 Falcons 11 23 18 13 13 16 14 15 18 15.667 4.111 Eagles 18 15 16 21 15 17 20 16 6 16.000 -3.333 Ravens 14 13 12 24 28 23 15 20 10 17.667 -3.223 Colts 22 11 17 27 32 5 17 21 8 17.778 -0.889 49ers 25 24 22 20 23 7 16 13 25 19.444 -6.333 Vikings 16 18 21 28 19 14 19 19 24 19.778 4.000 Lions 15 20 19 31 22 19 22 18 20 20.667 -3.778 Giants 20 21 20 19 27 10 25 24 23 21.000 -0.222 Titans 23 27 30 17 5 8 31 30 21 21.333 -3.000 Rams 9 19 23 25 21 30 21 23 22 21.444 -6.069 Browns 24 26 26 7 30 6 24 26 29 22.000 6.889 Texans 26 22 24 23 26 20 23 22 19 22.778 -0.556 Redskins 29 28 25 18 4 26 27 25 27 23.222 2.111 Raiders 27 30 28 22 16 22 26 29 30 25.556 3.444 Jaguars 30 31 31 10 20 21 29 31 28 25.667 2.333 Saints 28 25 27 32 24 28 28 28 26 27.333 -2.555 Bears 32 29 29 26 29 32 32 27 31 29.667 -3.556 Buccaneers 31 32 32 30 31 27 30 32 32 30.778 0.778

Observations:

Huh. When it comes to the objective list, the Patriots and Packers aren't so neck-and-neck. The Packers are hurt by their #29 ranking on Pro Football Reference, with the weak schedule being the key factor.

A number of media outlets have been proclaiming: don't panic about the Seahawks just yet. And for the most part, the objective rankings support this. Beatgraphs ranking the Seahawks at 29 is expected considering they haven't beat anyone yet. PFR have the Seahawks with negative ratings in all columns.

PFR doesn't like the Cardinals much either because of a weak schedule early on. Football Outsiders addressed this topic in this week's DVOA ratings post.

Wow, Chargers have pretty good consensus around 13th.

As bad as the Bears have looked, the Buccaneers have still looked worse.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR Massey ARGH FPI STD DEV Change in Value Buccaneers 31 32 32 30 31 27 30 32 32 1.548 0.592 Chargers 13 14 13 16 14 12 13 11 16 1.571 -1.373 Bengals 6 5 7 6 7 9 5 4 9 1.641 -0.668 Bears 32 29 29 26 29 32 32 27 31 2.108 1.371 Saints 28 25 27 32 24 28 28 28 26 2.160 -0.233 Texans 26 22 24 23 26 20 23 22 19 2.250 -0.235 Steelers 4 6 8 4 6 3 9 12 4 2.780 -2.256 Broncos 3 3 2 8 2 11 2 2 7 3.166 -0.753 Patriots 1 1 3 2 12 1 1 1 2 3.367 -0.577 Falcons 11 23 18 13 13 16 14 15 18 3.399 -0.650 Vikings 16 18 21 28 19 14 19 19 24 3.938 0.203 Eagles 18 15 16 21 15 17 20 16 6 4.055 -0.240 Lions 15 20 19 31 22 19 22 18 20 4.163 1.056 Panthers 12 17 15 3 9 15 12 8 15 4.184 -0.085 Bills 19 16 14 14 11 4 8 10 11 4.202 -0.629 Raiders 27 30 28 22 16 22 26 29 30 4.425 2.661 Dolphins 17 10 10 12 17 25 18 17 14 4.450 -0.962 Giants 20 21 20 19 27 10 25 24 23 4.619 1.920 Jets 8 12 11 1 1 2 7 14 12 4.833 -3.141 Cowboys 21 9 5 11 8 13 4 9 17 5.181 1.380 Rams 9 19 23 25 21 30 21 23 22 5.294 1.143 Chiefs 10 7 9 15 25 18 10 6 13 5.679 2.971 49ers 25 24 22 20 23 7 16 13 25 5.871 -0.968 Ravens 14 13 12 24 28 23 15 20 10 5.907 -1.071 Cardinals 2 8 6 5 3 24 6 5 5 6.190 2.246 Jaguars 30 31 31 10 20 21 29 31 28 6.831 2.972 Redskins 29 28 25 18 4 26 27 25 27 7.420 0.956 Colts 22 11 17 27 32 5 17 21 8 8.310 -0.714 Packers 5 2 1 9 10 29 3 3 1 8.367 5.963 Browns 24 26 26 7 30 6 24 26 29 8.498 6.835 Titans 23 27 30 17 5 8 31 30 21 9.080 -2.771 Seahawks 7 4 4 29 18 31 11 7 3 10.231 3.340

Observations:

Chargers are the second most-consistently ranked team on the objective board. In a very close third: their opponent from this past week, the Bengals. The Chargers just lost to the better team it seems.

The Seahawks are all over the board, but that will happen when your ranking runs the gamut from 3rd down to 31st. As more games are played, these rankings should come into greater agreement. Honorable mention: Titans, Browns, Packers, and Colts.

Speaking of Colts, what's wrong with Andrew Luck's cavalry? Pundits have plenty of theories, and apparently so do the algorithms.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value Patriots 1.333 2.667 2.000 0.803 Broncos 3.583 4.444 4.014 0.764 Packers 1.667 7.000 4.333 -1.303 Cardinals 4.500 7.111 5.806 1.770 Bengals 5.333 6.444 5.889 1.384 Steelers 8.333 6.222 7.278 7.671 Jets 10.167 7.556 8.861 7.907 Cowboys 8.500 10.778 9.639 -0.533 Chiefs 9.333 12.556 10.944 -2.777 Seahawks 9.667 12.667 11.167 -5.082 Bills 10.667 11.889 11.278 -2.293 Panthers 11.667 11.778 11.722 3.975 Falcons 9.917 15.667 12.792 5.688 Chargers 13.417 13.556 13.486 -0.880 Dolphins 17.083 15.556 16.319 -2.703 Ravens 16.750 17.667 17.208 -4.304 Colts 17.167 17.778 17.472 -3.937 Vikings 16.333 19.778 18.056 5.560 Eagles 22.583 16.000 19.292 -5.413 Rams 18.083 21.444 19.764 -5.395 49ers 20.667 19.444 20.056 -4.228 Lions 23.667 20.667 22.167 -3.904 Giants 24.417 21.000 22.708 -0.955 Redskins 22.500 23.222 22.861 4.169 Browns 25.000 22.000 23.500 5.808 Titans 26.250 21.333 23.792 -2.307 Texans 27.750 22.778 25.264 -1.789 Raiders 25.500 25.556 25.528 4.154 Jaguars 25.667 25.667 25.667 3.015 Saints 29.500 27.333 28.417 -4.437 Buccaneers 29.250 30.778 30.014 1.627 Bears 31.750 29.667 30.708 -4.334

Observations:

In the overall rankings this week, the Broncos sneak past the Packers for the second spot on the board.

The Patriots solidified their position at the top.

The Eagles continue their free fall. But that's completely understandable given how they've played.

10 of the bottom 16 teams are NFC teams.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value Bengals 5.333 6.444 1.468 -1.223 Buccaneers 29.250 30.778 1.477 0.685 Bears 31.750 29.667 1.781 0.981 Chargers 13.417 13.556 1.991 -0.737 Broncos 3.583 4.444 2.257 -0.794 Patriots 1.333 2.667 2.328 -0.742 Saints 29.500 27.333 2.921 0.899 Steelers 8.333 6.222 3.186 -1.282 Texans 27.750 22.778 3.512 1.116 Raiders 25.500 25.556 3.514 2.069 Bills 10.667 11.889 3.581 -0.207 Vikings 16.333 19.778 3.724 0.768 Lions 23.667 20.667 3.760 0.607 Falcons 9.917 15.667 3.786 0.635 Panthers 11.667 11.778 3.807 -0.074 Dolphins 17.083 15.556 3.849 -0.315 Jets 10.167 7.556 3.982 -3.086 Giants 24.417 21.000 4.203 1.810 49ers 20.667 19.444 4.335 -1.160 Cardinals 4.500 7.111 4.456 1.030 Chiefs 9.333 12.556 4.484 1.051 Rams 18.083 21.444 4.521 0.944 Ravens 16.750 17.667 4.580 -0.923 Cowboys 8.500 10.778 4.757 0.089 Eagles 22.583 16.000 5.023 0.804 Jaguars 25.667 25.667 5.176 2.332 Redskins 22.500 23.222 5.620 0.934 Colts 17.167 17.778 5.893 -1.211 Packers 1.667 7.000 6.090 3.995 Browns 25.000 22.000 6.204 4.583 Titans 26.250 21.333 6.693 -1.959 Seahawks 9.667 12.667 7.161 2.316

Observations:

Huh, the Bengals are the most consistently-ranked team overall. Not who I would have guessed.

It's fun when a team in the middle-rankings (10 > and < 20) is toward the top of this list. This week, the Chargers get that honor, with a solid consensus around the 13th-14th pick.

The Jets are climbing the board quickly, and doing so with consensus. Who would have thought?

Interestingly, just 0.6 spots separate the Colts' subjective and objective rankings, yet they're one of the least consistently-ranked teams.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value Falcons 9.917 15.667 5.750 3.154 Packers 1.667 7.000 5.333 2.727 Vikings 16.333 19.778 3.445 3.122 Rams 18.083 21.444 3.361 1.350 Chiefs 9.333 12.556 3.222 4.889 Seahawks 9.667 12.667 3.000 1.920 Cardinals 4.500 7.111 2.611 -0.904 Cowboys 8.500 10.778 2.278 -4.843 Buccaneers 29.250 30.778 1.528 1.700 Patriots 1.333 2.667 1.333 -1.728 Bills 10.667 11.889 1.222 0.525 Bengals 5.333 6.444 1.111 3.657 Ravens 16.750 17.667 0.917 -2.164 Broncos 3.583 4.444 0.861 -0.695 Redskins 22.500 23.222 0.722 4.116 Colts 17.167 17.778 0.611 -6.096 Chargers 13.417 13.556 0.139 0.018 Panthers 11.667 11.778 0.111 2.172 Raiders 25.500 25.556 0.056 1.420 Jaguars 25.667 25.667 0.000 1.364 49ers 20.667 19.444 -1.222 4.212 Dolphins 17.083 15.556 -1.528 -1.851 Bears 31.750 29.667 -2.083 -1.558 Steelers 8.333 6.222 -2.111 -5.101 Saints 29.500 27.333 -2.167 -3.763 Jets 10.167 7.556 -2.611 6.036 Browns 25.000 22.000 -3.000 -2.162 Lions 23.667 20.667 -3.000 -0.252 Giants 24.417 21.000 -3.417 -1.467 Titans 26.250 21.333 -4.917 1.386 Texans 27.750 22.778 -4.972 -2.467 Eagles 22.583 16.000 -6.583 -4.159

Observations:

Yo, pundits, slow your roll on the Falcons.

I'm not ready to call the Packers overrated, but their weak opponents are causing pause on the objective list.

8 of the 9 teams whose subjective ranking is most above the objective rankings are NFC teams. (Yeah, sorry if you have to read that sentence a few times to get it)

On the other end of the spectrum: the Eagles. (That's funny that we have birds on either end of this list). While they have looked less than impressive these first two games, is it really the dumpster fire that's been portrayed?

The Jets are actually under-ranked a bit? That's scary.

Sources