DALLAS, TX – DECEMBER 29: Calvin Pickard #31 of the Colorado Avalanche sits next to the net after giving up a goal to Tyler Seguin #91 of the Dallas Stars in the first period at American Airlines Center on December 29, 2016 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

“What’s the matter with the Avalanche?”

Over the past few years the hockey world has had occasion to ask that question a lot, especially in the wake of that one improbable playoff appearance that of course proved itself unsustainable.

How bad are the Avs today? As Travis Yost pointed out, they’re on pace for one of the worst seasons in recent memory, to the point that they appear to be tanking. Not that anyone would admit whether Colorado was taking a dive for a season or two, but when all outward appearance suggests it, it’s immaterial whether you’re trying. The end result is the same: You can’t score and you can’t win. And this follows seasons in which they finished with 90 and then 82 points, which are unenviable point totals in the first place. Getting worse from there? Not desirable. Unless it is.

But regardless of where they’re at as an organization now, we have to wonder about how they got there. The years of low-grade coaching from Patrick Roy didn’t help. Nor did Roy’s decision to run up the white flag just a few weeks before the season started. Nor did the general lack of defensive depth with which the team entered the season again. Nor did the injuries to the decent defenders it did have. Nor did the creaky veterans. Nor did the general lack of NHL-ready prospects to help keep the team on the upswing.

And to the last point, development — and specifically development of high-end forwards — has been a problem for the Avs for a while now, and no one seems to be talking too loudly about it. They have a Big Three up front of Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, and Gabriel Landeskog, but none of these players has materially improved their performances in the past few years. In one case, things have actually gotten a lot worse.

Just to start with the real basic-level stuff, MacKinnon hasn’t really matched the output from his age-18 season. He came close last season, but this year he’s dragging once again, and that’s a problem for a guy whose annual performances are supposed to get better until he’s 25 or 26 years old.

Which is, by the way, how old Duchene is now. And yet his performances are just hanging around a level that suggests a very good player, rather than one who’s supposed to be great. That 2013-14 season when he was nearly a point-a-game player offered a tantalizing glimpse, but now he’s settled down over the past three seasons, scoring a respectable but not overwhelming 63 goals over his last 188 games.

Then there’s Landeskog, who kind of always got the poor-man’s-Jonathan-Toews treatment. “He could score more if he wanted to,” and so on. But we don’t really have a lot of evidence this is the case; he’s still good, but he hasn’t really grown as a player — in terms of measurable on-ice performance — in a few years now.

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Again, just from a primary points perspective (accounting for goals and primary assists), you can see where MacKinnon really hasn’t done much growing since his rookie year, and where Duchene kind of leveled off since his age-22 season. You can also see where Landeskog has taken a huge step back at a time when his production should be improving.

Obviously looking at just primary point production is a bit reductive, but this tells a story: The Avs rely on these three for their offense, and apart from a few years ago, they really haven’t delivered to an extent you’d like. For context, that midpoint of 1.5 primary points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is about where Brendan Gallagher lands this season. And hey, if you have three guys who score like Brandon Gallagher, you’re in pretty good shape, but when they’re supposed to be the three best forwards on your team, that’s a problem. Especially in the case of two No. 1 picks and a No. 2. And especially especially where MacKinnon is concerned because he was supposed to be a franchise-changing talent. Instead he’s Brendan Gallagher? Not ideal.

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