The president is expected to push GOP candidates, tout accomplishments at Erie Insurance Arena rally.

He's back, Erie.

President Donald Trump takes the stage at Erie Insurance Arena Wednesday evening for a Make America Great Again rally, less than a month before the mid-term election and roughly a week after a series of major victories for his two-year-old presidency.

The Senate's confirmation of Trump's embattled nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh, who withstood sexual assault allegations.

A new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, following up on a campaign promise.

And a U.S. Department of Labor jobs report, released on Friday, that puts the nation's unemployment rate at 3.7 percent, the lowest since 1969.

In the wake of those successes, the Erie region is likely to see a confident Trump at Wednesday's rally, which is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m.

Trump is returning to Erie for the first time since he spoke at Erie Insurance Arena during an August 2016 campaign rally. He is also the first sitting president to visit Erie since George W. Bush in September 2004.

"The president looks forward to celebrating the success of the booming Trump economy that’s creating new jobs and bigger paychecks for the hard-working men and women of the Keystone State," Michael Glassner, the chief operating officer for Donald J. Trump for President Inc., said in a prepared statement released on Oct. 3, the day Trump's visit was announced.

Northwestern Pennsylvania, and Erie County in particular was good to Trump when it comes to his November 2016 victory over Democratic presidential nominee Hilary Clinton.

Trump won Erie County by 4 percentage points in 2016, becoming the first Republican to win the county since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

What to expect

During Wednesday's visit, Trump is likely to tout his administration's recent accomplishments; reject critics within the Democratic party; and remind Pennsylvanians of the importance of getting out to vote for Republican candidates.

Those candidates include Lou Barletta, who faces incumbent Democrat Bob Casey in the race for the U.S. Senate, and U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, who is looking to hold off Democrat and Erie lawyer Ron DiNicola while seeking re-election in the race for the 16th Congressional District seat.

Barletta and Kelly will be there, along with Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner, who is looking to deny Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf a second four-year term.

"I think that, overall, Trump is feeling pretty good about the events of the past couple of weeks," said Robert Speel, an associate professor of political science at Penn State Behrend. "As of right now, he probably feels he’s on a high because of the confirmation of Kavanaugh, reaching a new trade deal, and the unemployment numbers.

"He will have some positive things to say most likely about Mike Kelly and Lou Barletta," Speel continued, adding that he will have some "red meat" (comments) lined up for his base.

"And you have to remember that Trump says something controversial in almost every one of these rallies," Speel said, "so there may be something that makes the national news coming out of his speech Wednesday."

Jim Wertz is chairman of the Erie County Democratic Party. He said he believes that Trump's visit is largely about the challenge DiNicola poses to Kelly.

Although many political watchers give the edge to Kelly in the race, it is expected to be close.

"I think Kelly-DiNicola could end up being a focus of the rally," Wertz said. "Trump wouldn’t be in town if this Congressional district wasn’t in play."

In recent months, Trump has been hosting rallies across the country to galvanize support for a number of GOP candidates. They also seek to help the GOP stave off Democratic opponents in the mid-terms so that Republicans can continue to control both houses of Congress.

Currently, Republicans hold a 51-49 advantage in the Senate. Democrats need to flip 23 seats to gain control of the House.

'Peaceful and positive' protests

A recent Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll, released in early September, put Trump’s approval rating at 41 percent in Pennsylvania. A September poll by Franklin & Marshall released on Sept. 27 shows that 37 percent of Pennsylvania's registered voters believe Trump is doing an "excellent" or "good" job as president.

Nationally, a recently released CNN poll put Trump's approval rating at 41 percent, compared to 36 percent in early September. That poll showed that 52 percent of those surveyed disapprove of the president’s job performance, which is less than the 58 percent who disapproved a month ago.

Several local groups are expected to express that dissatisfaction, in relation to Trump, on Wednesday.

Laid-off workers from General Motors plants in Ohio and Indiana, along with workers at risk of losing their jobs at those plants, are expected in Erie on Wednesday to "demand the president pick up his pen and sign an executive order to stop federal contractors from outsourcing jobs to foreign countries," according to a news release from Good Jobs Nation, a Washington, D.C.-based worker advocacy group.

Additionally, a "Grab Them By the Ballot" rally is scheduled for 10th and State streets on Wednesday, starting at 5 p.m.

Organized by a group of local women opposed to Trump's policies, the rally seeks to "show Trump and his supporters that their dangerous, divisive politics and policies have no place in our backyard," according to a flyer produced for the event.

Democratic Erie City Councilwoman Liz Allen plans to attend Wednesday's rally.

"I think it’s important," Allen said. "This rally needs to be peaceful and positive, but I think this president is dangerous to this country and his policies are bad for our community."

A flyer for the "Grab Them By the Ballot" rally caused a stir in Erie City Hall on Tuesday when it was inadvertently shared with city employees via a mass e-mail. Laurie Watson, a legislative aide in City Clerk Rose Boyer's office, said she made "an honest mistake" by distributing the flyer to employees.

Allen had brought a copy of the flyer into the city clerk's office on Tuesday, but never intended for it to be widely shared. The city has written policies regarding employees engaging in political activity while at work.

As Trump prepares to address his audience on Wednesday, two local groups, Keystone Progress and Erie County United, will be taking part in a canvassing and get-out-the-vote effort for Wednesday evening.

They hope to reach more than 6,000 homes in the Erie area.

"We see what happens when people don't exercise their right to vote; we get stuck with an incompetent, crude leader," said Elspeth "Kate" Koehle, a regional organizer for Erie County United. "We are canvassing to encourage our neighbors to support progressive candidates and make sure they get out to vote."

Kevin Flowers can be reached at 870-1693 or by email. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ETNflowers.