Premier Kathleen Wynne should have been the least surprised person in the room last week when Moody’s Investors Service changed the outlook for Ontario’s Aa2 credit rating from stable to negative.

Moody’s explained its decision — which signals a credit downgrade unless things start to improve quickly — this way:

“The change in the outlook reflects Moody’s assessment of risks surrounding the province’s ability to meet its medium term fiscal targets. After several years of weak to moderate economic growth, and higher than previously anticipated deficits projected for the next two years, the province is facing a greater challenge to return to balanced outcomes than previously anticipated ...

“The required revenue growth, in an environment of continued slower than average economic growth, and necessary operating expense control to achieve fiscal targets, will require a considerable shift from recent trends.”

Where have Wynne and the Liberals heard that before?

They heard it more than two years ago from Don Drummond, the economist and banker they hired to advise them on Ontario’s finances after the 2011 election.

Drummond told them:

“Ontario faces more severe economic and fiscal challenges than most Ontarians realize. We can no longer assume a resumption of Ontario’s traditional strong economic growth and the continued prosperity on which the province has built its public services. Nor can we count on steady, dependable revenue growth to finance government programs. Unless policy-makers act swiftly and boldly to prevent such an outcome, Ontario faces a series of deficits that would undermine the province’s economic and social future.”

Why did the Liberals hire Drummond if they weren’t going to take his advice?

In her first two budgets, Wynne has hiked the Ontario deficit twice. It’s projected to be $12.5 billion this year and Wynne still hasn’t explained how she’s going to fulfill her promise to balance the budget by 2017-2018.

Ontario’s debt — the total of all its deficits — continues its relentless march towards $300 billion.

Interest payments on debt, at $11 billion annually, are now the third-largest portion of the budget after health care and education, as well as the fastest growing one.

Every dollar Wynne spends paying interest on debt — without lowering the debt — is a dollar that won’t be spent on health care, education or social services.

A credit downgrade will make this problem worse, because Ontario will be forced to pay higher interest rates for the money it borrows to keep the government running.

This doesn’t mean Ontario is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, yet, because it can raise more money by raising taxes.

The problem is the Liberals keep ignoring warnings that unless they start to control spending, “Ontario faces a series of deficits that would undermine the province’s economic and social future.”

Don’t take our word for it. That’s what Drummond, the Liberals’ hired gun, told them in February 2012.​