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New Jersey’s population has started to contract back toward its urban core for the first time since the end of the second World War, new research shows, in what could mark a death knell for suburban sprawl and foretell significant changes to the fabric of the Garden State.

A new study published by the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University reveals that between 2010 and 2013, population in 12 of the 27 counties that constitute the New York metropolitan area experienced population losses following more than a half-century of gains.

In New Jersey, Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon and Monmouth Counties all suffered losses during this period.

These counties all have one thing in common – they all exist on the far periphery of the metropolitan area – which researchers say is a signal that after decades of outward expansion, people are gravitating back toward cities.

“The era of moving ever outward is probably now in the past,” said James Hughes, dean of the Bloustein School, and a co-author of the study. “You always have to be cautious about forecasting, but it would appear we may be at the beginning of a major change, the crest of a wave.”

During the same period, New Jersey’s urban counties have been growing at a far faster rate, a pattern mimicked in New York City and the counties of New York state and Connecticut that border it.

It marks a reversal of how population grew in the region from 1950 through 2000, when urban counties suffered dramatic losses and New Jersey’s suburban communities experienced a period of unparalleled growth.

Hudson County, for example, has grown by nearly 25,000 people since 2010 after losing more than 90,000 from its population from 1950 to 1980. By contrast, Sussex County lost more than 3,200 people in recent years after posting gains of more than 80,000 from 1950 to 1980.

“It’s a potential threshold change,” said Joseph Seneca, a co-author of the study and professor at the Bloustein School. “And it carries a great deal of implications.”

Seneca said the shifts are being driven by lifestyle changes within America’s younger generations, who are rising to dominate the workforce as Baby Boomers continue to age toward retirement.

Should the trend continue, it could have major impacts on the state’s economy, infrastructure and real estate markets, he said.

Some of this is already evident. Consider:

• The popularity of older, urbanized communities in New Jersey like Morristown, with walkable town centers and access to mass transit, is booming, while newer towns that rose with suburban sprawl, are struggling.

• Many of the state's largest companies are abandoning the sprawling office parks built in the 1970s and 1980s in favor of more urbanized environments, leaving towns in suburbia with millions feet of office space they are struggling to fill.

• Younger couples in New Jersey are gravitating toward urbanized apartment living and pushing off marriage and children longer than their parents.

Seneca and Hughes said all of this could mean new challenges for state communities. Suburban communities could need to reimagine how their residential and commercial housing stock is utilized as tastes shift, while towns in urban counties will likely need to bolster an already aging infrastructure to support the load of their newfound popularity.

“The suburbs weren’t heavily congested from 1950 to 1980. It was still a new fresh frontier and the suburbs all looked fresh and clean,” Hughes said. “Now a lot of suburbs are over-congested and over-developed. It’s not that magic environment of old.”