Will Democrats kill the health-care bill?

One thing I don't want to do is be a soothsayer on the special election in Massachusetts. I have no interest in telling anybody that it's not bad for Democrats. It is. Much of the race has turned on Coakley's comically awful candidacy (Shake hands? With voters? Eeeeewwww!), but some of it is about unemployment and anger at Democrats and banks and other forces that will dominate the midterm election. If a liberal won a Senate seat in Alabama, Democrats would be partying in the streets, and they'd be right to do so.

But just as you don't want to deny the reality of the electoral situation, nor do you want to ignore the reality of the governing situation. Democrats have a health-care bill that is inches from the finish line. It has passed five committees and both chambers of Congress. Even if Brown wins, it would still command a large majority in the Senate -- but it would be one vote away from a supermajority, and so the minority could mount a parliamentary maneuver to kill it.

The bill, however, doesn't have to go back through the Senate. It could be passed by the House and signed by the president. House Democrats are reticent to do that, because there are compromises and tweaks and modifications they want made. But those changes are far too small to be worth killing the bill over. And they could be added to the bill separately, through the 51-vote reconciliation process.

The bottom line here is that if the health-care bill fails, it will be Democrats who killed it, not Scott Brown. And people should be clear on that point.

