I am no economist, but I can reasoned that what the author believed here may not be true.



1. there are still many, in fact the majority of, countries in this world which have yet to get less poor by international trade. Even if international trade between China and the developed country may (or may not) slow down due to increasing labour cost in China, other poorer countries will start increasing trade with the rich countries. In fact these poor countries are already increasing their trade with China as China is getting richer, and China will probably be the next biggest consumer market, raw material market, industrial....... market in the world for many decades until other countries and continents, like SE Asia, Africa, take over.



2. although the growth in trade with the present "rich countries" may slow down, the growth of trade among the present less-rich countries is likely to speed up and faster than the aggregated GDP growth of these countries, so much so that it surpass the global GDP growth.



3. "Some manufacturing activities, though few jobs, may well return to developed countries": in fact, trade may be reversed, that is, these cheaply produced goods may be exported to other parts of the world, increasing global trade.



4. Although "industrial tariffs already dramatically reduced", it is not zero, and there are still huge non-tariff barriers. When all tariffs and barriers are removed, there is huge potential for much higher growth in international trade. The writer has forgotten about non-tariff barriers.



5. the tariff may be reversed, ie, if a certain product is needed in a certain country, then import can be subsidized by the government. Examples are water, oil, food products, even technologies, capitals, talents. Hence “reverse tariff” (similar to negative interest rate) will increase global trade.



6. globalization (mainly by international trade, but also by other means like cultural, educational spread) has improved the economy of many less-well-developed countries (like Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, China, Russia, many other countries in Asia and Latin America, and may be E Europe), as well as sustained low-inflation growth in developed countries in the past 30 years. However, it also caused and intensified mal-distribution of wealth in many countries, especially the middle and lower social classes in America and Europe. That is, the world become a fairer place, with less divide between rich and poor from a global perspective. This trend is likely to go on, because this trend is natural and historical.



Hence I believe that global trade will not slow down. In the long run it can only increase, and there is huge benefit to the less-developed countries and the developed countries alike.

