Carly Fiorina couldn't capitalize on her scrappy second debate performance while Sen. Ted Cruz looks to be assembling an organization for the long haul.

That's why they are trading places in the latest rankings of The Chase – U.S. News' snapshot of the 2016 presidential contenders and their shot at their party's nominations.



The Texas senator has nudged Fiorina out of the top tier of the GOP primary. He now sits in the No. 4 slot, behind Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla, leaving the top tier conspicuously void of governors.

The former Hewlett Packard CEO drops into the second tier ahead of the third Republican debate Wednesday, when she'll look for yet another opportunity to recharge her idled bid.

While Trump and Carson continue to dominate national and early-nominating-state polling, here's why Cruz is up and Fiorina is down on The Chase:



Immediately following the second GOP debate on Sept. 16, Fiorina's poised performance pushed her up to 13 percent in Iowa and 16 percent in New Hampshire – her highest numbers of the campaign in each place. That put her in second place in the Granite State and third in the Hawkeye State. She went on to garner some of her largest crowds the following week. But she could not hold on. A month later and her support has dissipated. She now registers just 4 percent in Iowa and 7 percent in New Hampshire.

Conversely, Cruz, who has been stymied by Trump and Carson in his efforts to plow the anti-establishment lane of the primary, has remained remarkably steady throughout. Besides those two, he is the only other Republican scoring double digits in Iowa, good enough for third place there. In New Hampshire, Cruz is only at 5 percent – actually behind Fiorina – but it's South Carolina where he performs better, netting 8 percent in the latest survey there, good enough for third place. Moreover, though, it's Cruz's organization that will keep his hopes alive if Trump or Carson falter. At $13.5 million, he has the most candidate cash-on-hand of any Republican, and more than double what Fiorina has in the bank.

This means Cruz can sustain early state losses and will be a player into March when a host of states vote, barring an unforeseen event. Fiorina, on the other hand, needs another spurt of excitement to keep open the money spigot.