N.J. weather update: Latest forecast on Saturday snowstorm

UPDATE (Friday night): N.J. weather update: What to expect from weekend snowstorm, when the snow will arrive

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National Weather service issues winter storm watch for N.J.

By Jeff Goldman | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

It's becoming increasingly likely that several inches of snow will fall across much of New Jersey beginning Saturday night with up to 8 inches now possible in parts of northeastern New Jersey.

All of North Jersey and part of Central Jersey are now under a winter storm watch. The National Weather Service advisory effects the following counties: Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset, Mercer, Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen and Passaic.

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National Weather Service

N.J. snowfall predictions from National Weather Service

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National Weather Service

N.J. and N.Y. snowfall predictions from National Weather Service

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When will the snow start in N.J.?

The National Weather Service increased and expanded the projected totals for a large portion of the state in its morning forecast, with Bergen and sections of Passaic and Hudson expected to get 6 to 8 inches between Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

The rest of North Jersey and chunk of Central Jersey should get 4 to 6 inches, the weather service says.

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National Weather Service

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The weather service is calling for 2 to 3 inches around Freehold and Medford but less than an inch in the Toms River and Vineland areas and no accumulating snow in Atlantic and Cape May counties.

AccuWeather.com isn't nearly as bullish as the National Weather Service, calling for 3 to 6 inches in North Jersey and 1 to 3 in the central part of the state. The southern half of the state should see a wintry mix, according to AccuWeather.com.

Most of the snow will drop between 7 p.m. and 3 a.m. with rates of 1 inch per hour possible north and west of Interstate 95 at the peak of the storm, according to the National Weather Service.

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Accuweather

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The snow should be heavy and wet, making power outages possible, especially in areas in north and Central Jersey areas close to the New Jersey Turnpike.

The weather service isn't as confident in its snow projections south of Interstate 195 and along the Shore because snow could mix with rain in those areas.

It also notes that surface temperatures and the rate at which snow falls could affect the the final totals.

Road conditions are likely to deteriorate Saturday night make travel difficult for a few hours.

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Accuweather

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What day is the full moon in February? The answer may surprise you.

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National Weather Service

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Not much snow in February so far

If you’ve got the feeling that we haven’t had much snow in February, the statistics confirm those thoughts.

Most storm systems this month have moved across the New Jersey region when temperatures were too warm to support snow. Instead, the region has gotten a lot of rain.

These charts show how much snow our region normally gets in February, compared to how much has fallen through the first half of this month.

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On Friday morning patchy fog is likely to dissipate by 8 a.m. but it will be a gray day with periods of rain with mild temperatures.

Temperatures will peak in the mid 50s but drop sharply around sunset when winds gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible.

Skies clear Friday night as temps fall into the 20s overnight. Clouds will increase during the morning and afternoon on Saturday as the mercury makes it to about 40 degrees. The snow arrives in the late afternoon and early evening.

Sunday will be a decent day with sunny skies and temperatures in the 40s.

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5:45am temps. Fairly mild, but wet with rain. Stays wet thru mos tof the aft. Dry tonight, but windy and getting chillier. Cold Saturday w/ snow at night. Update on @6abc. pic.twitter.com/g4GtBE4yMN — davidmurphy6abc (@davidmurphy6abc) February 16, 2018

Warm temperatures to start Friday

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Strike Up The Ohio Players! We Are On A "Roller Coaster"! We Go From Rain To Snow In 36 Hours! Next Week We Near 70 Degrees! pic.twitter.com/DcK6nXrcKV — Bill Evans (@Evansweather) February 16, 2018

7-day forecast for the New York City area

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More New York City area weather

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More Philadelphia area weather

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Len Melisurgo contributed to this report.

Jeff Goldman may be reached at jeff_goldman@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JeffSGoldman. Find NJ.com on Facebook.