Below, we break down the outlooks for each club in September, focusing on the matches that will most impact the Eastern Conference Playoff race.

Charleston Battery

Current Points: 45

Position in Table: 4th

Form: DWLDD

September matches: 5

September 8: vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies

September 15: vs. Charlotte Independence

September 22: @ Nashville SC

September 26: vs. North Carolina FC

September 29: vs.Toronto FC II

Points Per Game average of Opponents: 1.13 PPG

Current Elo Rating (1100 is league average): 1132

Average Elo Rating of Opponents: 1081.8

Charleston can take advantage of September with five matches against teams below them in the current table. Four of these matches will be played at home too. Nashville SC, who the Battery face away from home on September 22nd, are the only opponent this month that currently occupy a playoff spot (8th).

Coupled with matches against Carolina rivals Charlotte and NCFC, both at home, Charleston should make a strong case for hosting a playoff game for the second year in a row.

The Battery’s match against Toronto FC II is their final home fixture of the regular season before a two match road swing to finish out the season.

I would definitely circle the Battery vs. NCFC match on September 26 as one to watch: the previous two meetings of these clubs this season both ended in draws (1–1 and 0–0 respectively).

With a favorable schedule — opponents this month gain on average 1.13 points per game and have an average Elo rating of 1081.8 — signs are pointing towards Charleston marching towards a high seed in the postseason.

North Carolina FC

Current Points: 34

Position in Table: 10th

Form: WLDWL

September matches: 6

September 1: 0–3 vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies

September 8: vs. Nashville SC

September 16: @ Penn FC

September 21: @ ATL UTD 2

September 26: @ Charleston Battery

September 29: vs. Richmond Kickers

Points Per Game average of Opponents: 1.20 PPG

Current Elo Rating: 1111

Average Elo Rating of Opponents: 1084.4

North Carolina FC is faring much better than their fellow in-state counterpart — particularly after their 6–2 drubbing of the Independence on August 25th. Though the defeat against Tampa Bay was a poor one, as it ended NCFC’s four match scoring streak, the Dead Whales can afford to let that fixture go and refocus their attention on the rest of the month.

Matches against playoff clubs Nashville SC and away at Charleston are fixtures to look forward to for NCFC, as those will go a long way in deciding the club’s playoff fates. To remain in the hunt for the postseason, the Dead Whales need nine points from their matches against Penn FC, ATL UTD 2 and Richmond. Dropping points against any of those three clubs would significantly hurt North Carolina FC’s chances for a playoff spot.

As they sit only 4 points behind Nashville — who occupies the final playoff spot — North Carolina FC prepares to dash towards October and a postseason appearance in their first season of USL play. With the highest goal differential of any current non-playoff team in the East, NCFC remain in a good position for the remainder of the regular season, and I predict they’ll make that top eight.

Charlotte Independence

Current Points: 32

Position in Table: 12th

Form: LDLLW

September matches: 5

September 1: 1–0 vs. Nashville SC

September 8: vs. Richmond Kickers

September 15: @ Charleston Battery

September 22: vs. New York Red Bulls II

September 29: vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Points Per Game average of Opponents: 1.43 PPG

Current Elo Rating: 1068

Average Elo Rating of Opponents: 1103.5

Charlotte desperately needed a win to start the month, and they got their wish with a 1–0 victory over a middling Nashville side this past weekend. The win ended a seven match winless run stretching back to July 11th — coincidentally, their last win was also a 1–0 result over Nashville.

The month of September is less than ideal for Charlotte, who are still needing to string together some wins to make a playoff spot. The Independence currently sit 6 points out, and three of their four opponents this month are currently in the top eight of the Eastern Conference.

Charlotte has a chance to pick up points against Richmond this Saturday before a key fixture away at Southern Derby rival Charleston on September 15.

The biggest stat I look at for the Independence is this: They’ve played six games already against the four teams remaining on the September schedule, and they have recorded only one win (3–1 over Richmond on May 26th). Charlotte will have to overcome poor form in hopes of making the playoffs, but the postseason is not out of the picture quite yet.

They also have a friendly against a Liga MX side to distract them/to look forward to:

Conclusion

September stands as a crucial month for our Carolina clubs. One looks to improve their playoff standing, while the other two just want to be invited to the party. It will be an exciting month of soccer in our two states as we prepare to see out the conclusion of the 2018 USL regular season.

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