At 12:01 A.M. on May 1, the Trump administration’s steel and aluminum tariffs will officially go into effect. Since Donald Trump announced them in March, countries around the world, including many of the U.S.’s closest allies, have literally inundated the Trump administration with requests for permanent exemptions, but so far only South Korea has been granted a pass as part of a revised trade deal. Should every appeal for dispensation fail, the nations slapped with the punitive measures would collectively account for nearly half of American steel imports, which would undoubtedly roil global markets and throw international supply chains into total uncertainty. With less than 48 hours to go until the deadline hits, what can trading partners reasonably expect? Seeing as we’re dealing with President Shoots from the Hip, nobody knows!

After a week of house calls from President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel that involved exactly the type of flattery Trump just eats up, the European Union indicated over the weekend that it’s pessimistic about the chances of reaching an agreement, with Merkel, Macron, and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May discussing retaliatory tariffs if an exemption for the E.U. doesn’t come through. (According to The New York Times, the E.U. has already made a list of targets intended to inflict “maximum pain” on Trumpland, including playing cards made in Kentucky, recreational power boats made in Tennessee, and digital flight recorders made in Arizona.)

Part of the problem for our European allies, of course, is that Trump loathes multilateral deals and is still seemingly struggling to comprehend that none of the bloc members are going to work out a side deal with him. The other part is that allies in Europe find the U.S.’s demands not just untenable but incomprehensible, noting that the former purveyor of Trump Steaks and Vodka is “demanding concessions that would make them accomplices in dismantling a postwar trade framework they hold sacred.” For example, TV pundit turned National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow recently told CNBC that the U.S. wants the E.U. to lower tariffs on imported cars. But to do so in adherence with international treaties would mean lowering tariffs on all other members of the World Trade Organization, in a move that experts say could most benefit—wait for it—China. European officials are also reportedly offended that they’re being asked to offer concessions without receiving a permanent exemption first. “When that is confirmed by the president,” Cecilia Malmstrom, the European commissioner for trade, told reporters last week, “we are willing as always to discuss anything. But we are not negotiating anything under threat.” (Meanwhile, Australia is apparently treating its exemption as if its a foregone conclusion; Brazil, per the Times, “is hoping to escape by agreeing on limited quotas for more sophisticated products;’ Argentina is banking on its president’s good relationship with Trump with help it score a pass; and Canada and Mexico’s fate is tied to the successful renegotiation of NAFTA, which, of course, is nowhere near a done deal.)

While Europe’s good-cop-bad-cop routine has played out at home, the U.S. was gearing up to dispatch a delegation to Beijing to negotiate over the $150 billion in tariffs Trump has proposed for Chinese goods. The group arrived Monday, led by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who said in an interview that he’s “cautiously optimistic” about the meet-up, that retaliation is “not a worry of mine,” and that the Trump administration is focused on “free and fair and reciprocal trade.” Unfortunately for Steve-O, the outlook on the other side is not quite as rosy, with government sources publicly appearing open to a deal, but privately calling two of Trump’s biggest asks nonstarters. “I don’t expect a comprehensive deal whatsoever,” Ruan Zongze, the executive vice president of the China Institute of International Studies, told the Times. “I think there is a lot of game playing here.”

In the end, of course, there’s no telling what President McTweets-a-lot will do. Trump’s methods, as Axios points out, typically consist of “threaten[ing] the outrageous, ratchet[ing] up the tension, amplify[ing] it with tweets and taunts, and then compromis[ing] on fairly conventional middle ground,” but in a few cases he’s actually followed through on said threats, such as when he pulled out of the Paris climate accord. As a source told Jonathan Swan “there’s widespread confusion, and the Trump administration has given no clear guidance for how they could get exemptions,” which probably means even the White House is in the dark. So: stay tuned!