Greek Freak MVP Odds Skyrocket After 1st Week

Anthony Bennett. Cody Zeller. Ben McLemore. Trey Burke. These are all guys drafted ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo back in 2013. I guess hindsight is 20-20, right!

The Greek Freak is off to a blistering start this season and has looked as dominant as ever. Trust me, I was at the game against the Celtics. Absolute freaking monster of a human being.

In a way-too-early look at player efficiency rating (PER), he’s looking pretty solid at 43.53. Here are the stat lines from the first three games.

Game 1: 37 pts, 13 rebs, 3 asts, 3 stls

Game 2: 34 pts, 8 rebs, 8 asts, 3 stls, 1 blk

Game 3: 44 pts, 8 rebs, 4 asts, 2 stls, 2 blks

Not bad, not bad. Filling up the stat sheet and making those daily fantasy players happy. Not to mention he’s shooting 67.2%.

So, how much can a player improve his MVP odds in just one week? Apparently a lot.

Player 12/4 (Bovada) 10/23 (Bovada) 10/16 (Bovada) 9/24 (Bovada) 8/23 (Bovada) 8/16 (Bovada) 8/13 (Paddy Power) James Harden +115 +1000 +1000 +1000 +900 +800 +700 Giannis Antetokounmpo +400 +250 +1000 +1000 +850 +850 +750 LeBron James +400 +500 +400 +450 +500 +750 +750 Kyrie Irving +900 +1200 +1200 +1200 +1500 +5000 N/A Kevin Durant +1500 +800 +550 +550 +550 +450 +350 Russell Westbrook +1500 +1000 +600 +600 +450 +350 +350 Steph Curry +1800 +1200 +1200 +1200 +1200 +1100 +1100 Kawhi Leonard +2800 +600 +400 +350 +400 +650 +550 Joel Embiid +3300 +2500 +2500 +4000 +5000 +5000 +5000 Anthony Davis +4000 +2500 +1800 +1800 +1800 +1600 +1600 Kristaps Porzingis +4000 +2500 +10000 +10000 +10000 +10000 N/A John Wall +5000 +2800 +3300 +3300 +3300 +3300 +3000 Ben Simmons +5000 +3300 +8000 +8000 +8000 +6600 N/A Karl-Anthony Towns +6000 +2500 +3300 +3300 +3300 +3300 +3000 DeMarcus Cousins +7000 N/A +4000 +4000 +4000 +3300 +3000 Damian Lillard +7500 N/A +4000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +4500 Andre Drummond +8000 N/A +25000 +25000 +25000 +25000 N/A LaMarcus Aldridge +8000 N/A +25000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Nikola Jokic +10000 N/A +4000 +4000 +4000 +4000 +3300 Demar Derozan +10000 N/A +6000 +6000 +6000 +5000 +5000 Paul George N/A N/A +3000 +3000 +3000 +2500 +2000 Chris Paul N/A N/A +3300 +3300 +3300 +2500 +3300 Jimmy Butler N/A N/A +8000 +10000 +10000 +7500 +9000 Andrew Wiggins N/A N/A +10000 +8000 +8000 +7500 N/A Draymond Green N/A N/A +10000 +10000 +10000 +6000 N/A Blake Griffin N/A +5000 +4000 +4000 +4000 +4000 +3000 Gordon Hayward N/A N/A +10000 +10000 +10000 +7000 +6600 Carmelo Anthony N/A N/A +10000 +10000 +10000 +7500 +6000 Kyle Lowry N/A N/A +15000 +15000 +15000 +10000 +9000 Kemba Walker N/A N/A +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000 N/A Kevin Love N/A N/A +20000 +20000 +20000 +10000 N/A Marc Gasol N/A N/A +20000 +20000 +20000 +15000 N/A Bradley Beal N/A N/A +20000 +20000 +20000 +20000 N/A Mike Conley N/A N/A +20000 +20000 +20000 +20000 +15000 Paul Millsap N/A N/A +20000 +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A Dirk Nowitzki N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +25000 +25000 +50000 Dwight Howard N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +25000 +25000 N/A Hassan Whiteside N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +25000 +25000 N/A Devin Booker N/A N/A +25000 +25000 N/A N/A N/A Goran Dragic N/A N/A +25000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Daniel Theis N/A N/A +99900 N/A N/A N/A N/A Isaiah Thomas N/A N/A N/A +3500 +3500 +2500 +2000 Jeff Teague N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +25000 N/A

Antetokounmpo has moved from +1000 to +250 in this short stretch—close to a 20% spike in implied probability. The real question is: How long can he keep this up? Some people believe he has a chance to put up over 30 a game and average a triple double. I think he’s going to have a great year, but personally, I think that the value is already gone at +250. You’re probably better off waiting for him to have a little bit of a rough stretch or for someone else to go nuts for a week and hope that the payout improves.

Most of the other top contenders have understandably seen their odds drop. A few names further down the list that have improved include Kristaps Porzingis, John Wall, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Ben Simmons.

Porzingis has scored 30+ in each of his first two games, but there’s literally no chance he wins the award. The Knicks are not going to be close to good enough for him to deserve recognition.

Wall is averaging a cool 27 and 9—probably somewhat close to what he’ll end up with at season’s end. Not a terrible longshot pick if you like the Wizards.

Towns has posted decent stats as well and his Timberwolves have two solid victories over OKC and Utah, but I can’t see him winning this year. Also, the last time a true big man won the award was Kevin Garnett back in 2003-04 (or Dirk Nowitzki in 2006-07 if you want to count him.)

Simmons is certainly looking good for rookie of the year with his 15.7, 10.3, and 6.0 averages, but he’s just not going to score enough to win MVP.

What do you think? Is the Greek Freak the real deal? And by real deal, I mean would you bet on him at +250?