Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

1. Lewis Brinson, CF

Background: I imagine that if a poll was handed out five years ago asking about the limitations of his problematic strikeout rate in Low Class A, the overwhelming majority of people – and scouts, and analysts, and talking heads – wouldn’t have put too much stock into his ability to develop into a bonafide blue-chip prospect. Brinson and Joey Gallo, both 2012 first round selections of the Rangers, tag-teamed to give Texas a surplus of exciting skills and hurricane-inducing swings-and-misses. Brinson, the 29th overall pick, finished his sophomore professional season with a hefty, Rob Deer-like 38.8% punch out rate. Gallo, in the same breath, who was taken just 10 selections later, posted a more “modest” 37.0% strikeout percentage.

And here’s where their once paralleling paths skew.

Brinson’s strikeout rate plummeted by nearly 13% the following season and continued its downward trend all the way through the 2017 season; he finished with a remarkably strong – and equally resilient – 18.2% whiff rate in the PCL last year. Whereas Gallo, with Paul Bunyan-esque power oozing out of every pore, finished his minor league journey with 718 strikeouts in 2,071 plate appearances, or 34.7%.

Enough flattering words cannot be penned in admiration for Brinson’s incredibly development in the contact department. It’s remarkable. It’s incredible. It’s…likely never going to happen again.

As for his on-field production, the tools laden center fielder out of Coral Springs High School has continued to perform at every single minor league stop. Last season Brinson, who checks in at a well-built 6-foot-3 and 195-pounds, feasted off of the hitter-friendly environment of the PCL, slugging a robust .331/.400/.562 with 22 doubles, four triples, 13 homeruns, and 11 stolen bases. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 46%. Not bad work for a 23-year-old in the minors’ final stop. Milwaukee called him for a couple brief cameos as well.

Following the season, the Brewers shipped Brinson, right-hander Jordan Yamamoto, outfielder Monte Harrison, and infielder Isan Diaz to Miami in exchange for Christian Yelich.

Projection: So let’s take a long, long look back at what I wrote about Brinson in my first book in 2014:

“Speed, power, patience, and like Gallo, huge K-rates. Not sure if Brinson can eventually overcome them, but his floor should reside somewhere near that of current big leaguer Drew Stubbs.”

And let’s fast forward to last year’s edition:

“You kind of get the feeling he’s heading down the Adam Jones career path – which, to be honest, is a fantastic one to take. Both toolsy center fielders possess the rare, highly sought after power-speed combination. They showcase solid hit tools. And they both own similar walk rates in the minors: 7.1% (Jones) vs. 8.2% (Brinson). Oh, yeah, here are their respective MiLB triple-slash lines:

Brinson: .280/.345/.492

Jones: .291/.354/.476

If he looks like All-Star, performs like a (future) All-Star, and has all the tools to be All-Star…well…then he’s got a pretty good shot at developing into a (perennial) All-Star.”

What a difference a couple years can, both in terms of his strikeout rate and my writing ability – I hope. Let’s take a look at Brinson’s 2017 production in the PCL through a semi-recent historical lens. Consider the following:

There’s certainly a few solid big league bats mixed in the group – as well as some on the other end of the spectrum – but Eaton, Nimmo, Quentin, Gyorko, and d’Arnaud are all league average or better MLB bats. Now, to be fair, Brinson spent a significant amount of time playing in Colorado Springs’ bandbox. He batted .374/.441/.638 at home and .279/.351/.471 on the road.

Brinson owns an impressive toolkit: average eye, strong contact skills, 20-homer power, above-average speed, and impressive defense. I’m still sticking by the Adam Jones comp from last year.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

2. Nick Neidert, RHP

Background: Stuck in between Juan Hillman and Andrew Suarez in the second round of the 2015 draft, Neidert was easily the biggest riser in the Seattle farm system in 2017. After posting some barely-there ERAs during his first two professional seasons, largely on the back of fantastic walk rates and a pitch-to-contact mentality, Neidert’s strikeout rate exploded last season: in 127.2 innings of work between the Modesto Nuts in the California League and the Arkansas Travelers in the Texas League, the 6-foot-1, 180-pound right-hander fanned 122, an average of 8.6 K/9, and posted a combined strikeout percentage of 23.2%. His previous career bests, by the way, were 6.8 K/9 and 19.4%.

Projection: I had an inkling that Neidert might be in for a breakout in 2017. Here’s what I wrote in last year’s book:

“The young right-hander, despite not missing a lot of bats in either season, certainly had his moments last year. More specifically, in a 10-day period beginning in late June, Neidert punched out 12 guys while walking only one in six innings against the Kane County Cougars and followed that up with 11 strikeouts in an eight-inning stint against the Peoria Chiefs. That was one-third of his total K’s last season in roughly 15% of his innings. So the question remains: is that a harbinger of things to come or simply just an anomaly? For now Neidert looks like a solid backend hurler with some significant upside – if the punch outs can come in bunches.”

Well, it certainly proved to be a harbinger of things to come. Just how good was Neidert, particularly in the California League, last season? Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only two 20-year-old pitchers posted a strikeout percentage north of 26% in the California League (min. 100 IP): Franklin Morales and Josh Hader. Two other pitchers accomplished the feat in 2017: Neidert and the Dodgers’ Caleb Ferguson.

Neidert is the 20-year-old pitcher to post a strikeout-to-walk percentage north of 22% in the California League since 2006 (min. 100 IP). And only three other pitchers, of any age, have accomplished the feat: Martin Agosta (24), Dan Winkler (23), and Tyler Skaggs (19).

Needless to say, Neidert is in some pretty rarified company. Just as I opined in last year’s book, Neidert has some “significant upside.” If he can avoid any avoid significant arm issues, he looks like a solid bet to develop into a #2/#3-type arm.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

3. Braxton Garrett, LHP

Background: The seventh overall pick two years ago, Garrett’s delayed professional debut lasted all of 15.1 innings before the 6-foot-3, 190-pound southpaw underwent the knife courtesy of Tommy John surgery.

Projection: On the positive side of things Garrett looked incredibly strong during his first three starts of the year: he tossed a combined 13.2 innings while striking out 12 and walking 6. Not bad work for a 19-year-old who essentially pitched his previous games against high school opponents. Hopefully the lanky lefty makes a complete recovery.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

4. Trevor Rogers, LHP

Background: Fun Fact Part I: When the club grabbed lefty Trevor Rogers with the 13th overall selection last June, it marked the third time in four years that the organization plucked a prep hurler in the opening round. Fun Fact Part II: Since the organization’s inception in 1992, the Marlins have selected high school pitchers with their first pick in back-to-back years just once when they drafted Rogers and fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett. Fun Fact Part III (or Not So Fun Fact Part III): Their previous two high school first round arms have succumbed to Tommy John surgery – Braxton Garrett and Tyler Kolek. Fun Fact Part IV: Rogers’ cousin is former big league (and Marlins) outfielder Cody Ross, a career .262/.322/.445 triple-slash hitter.

Projection: After agreeing to a below-average slot deal, which saved the organization about $400,000, Rogers – like his previous first round counterpart Braxton Garrett – did not make his much anticipated professional debut. So, per the usual, it’ll be a wait-and-see approach until Rogers appears in a meaningful game.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

5. Brian Miller, CF

Background: A nice little underdog story: Miller, who hails from Raleigh, North Carolina, was an overlooked prospect coming out of Millbrook High School. The 6-foot-1, 186-pound first baseman/outfielder was a walk-on at UNC at the start of his freshman season. But by the end of that year, he left quite an impression: in 52 games for Head Coach Mike Fox, the lefty-swinging Miller batted a respectable .288/.375/.326 with three doubles, one triple, and swiped 10 bags in 12 total attempts. And he raised the ante during that summer as well. Playing for the Holley Springs Salamanders in the Coastal Plain League, Miller slugged a robust .389/.476/.429 with six doubles, one triple, and a whopping 38 stolen bases (in 49 attempts) in just 51 games.

But, perhaps, the most impressive aspect of Miller’s offensive game was his ability to control the strike zone: he posted a solid 16-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio with UNC and then an even better 30-to-21 strikeout-to-walk during his time with the Salamanders.

Miller raised the bar even higher during his sophomore campaign, slugging .345/.440/.469 with 12 doubles, five triples, a pair of homeruns, and 21 stolen bases – all career highs. That production earned him a trip to the Cape Cod League as well. In 41 games with the Orleans Firebirds, the slashing line-drive hitter batted .327/.369/.387 with seven doubles, one homerun, and 15 stolen bases.

Heading into the 2017 season, Perfect Game tabbed Miller as a Second Team Pre-Season. And he didn’t disappoint. In a career best 63 games with the Tar Heels, Miller batted a career best .343/.422/.502 with 16 doubles, three triples, seven homeruns and 24 stolen bases (in just 30 attempts).

Miami grabbed the talented hitter with their second first round pick, 36th overall, and aggressively pushed him right into the South Atlantic League. And, once again, Miller did not disappoint. In 57 games with the Greensboro Grasshoppers, the now-fulltime outfielder slugged .322/.384/.416 with 17 doubles, one triple, one homerun, and 21 stolen bases in 27 total attempts. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 34%.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about him heading into the draft last June:

“Quietly good. Just to put Miller’s junior season into context, consider the following:

There [are] some pretty impressive names in that bunch: Benintendi, Panik, Wong, and Turner are all above-average big league players. Burns has proved to be a serviceable outfielder. And Senzel is one of the best prospects in baseball.

With respect to Miller, he’s performed well at every stop of the way – including against top-notch talent in the ACC and in the Cape Cod. He runs well, has an impeccable eye at the plate, and has enough power to keep pitchers/outfielders honest. If his defense grades out as even average, Miller should be no worse than a 2.0-win outfielder. If everything works out, Miller has the potential to be a table setter for a big league lineup, perhaps peaking as a .300/.350/.390-type hitter with 25+ stolen bases.”

For what it’s worth – and, yes, it’s a small sample size – but Miller graded out as above-average center fielder with Greensboro. And with his easy transition to the Sally, I’m going to up my initial ceiling on him a bit. I think Washington Nationals center fielder Adam Eaton is a very reasonable comp in terms. CAL likens the former UNC star to Jon Jay and Michael Brantly, which are both very intriguing. It’s a solid, solid pick by the Marlins.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

6. Jordan Yamamoto, RHP

Background: Yamamoto didn’t let an early season injury slow his development path last season. The 6-foot, 185-pound right-hander, who squared off against fellow Brewers prospect Kodi Medeiros in the Hawaii High School Athletic Association Division I tournament, has quickly vaulted above his fellow 2014 draft counterpart – despite being selected 344 picks later. Yamamoto spent the entirety of last season dealing for the Carolina Mudcats. In 22 appearances, 18 of them coming via the start, the slight-framed right-hander tossed 111.0 innings with 113 strikeouts and just 30 free passes. He finished the year with a 2.51 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, 3.42 xFIP, and a 2.80 DRA (Deserved Run Average). For his career, Yamamoto is averaging a stellar 9.5 strikeouts and just 2.6 walks every nine innings to go along with a 4.19 ERA across 329.0 total innings. Miami acquired the young right-hander along with top prospect Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, and Monte Harrison in exchange for outfielder Christian Yelich this offseason.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about him in the last year’s Handbook when I ranked him as the club’s ninth best prospect:

“Among all qualified Midwest League arms, Yamamoto finished second in FIP (2.53), second in strikeout rate (10.18 K/9), second in strikeout percentage (27.4%), eighth in walk rate (2.08 BB/9), tied for seventh in walk percentage (5.6%), and tops in strikeout-to-walk percentage (21.8%).

Among all qualified Low Class A arms (Midwest and South Atlantic Leagues), Yamamoto finished third in FIP, third in strikeout rate, third in strikeout percentage, 20th in walk rate, 20th in walk percentage, and third in strikeout-to-walk percentage.

Now among all MiLB arms at any level with at least 120 innings, Yamamoto finished fourth in FIP, fifth in strikeout rate, sixth in strikeout percentage, and third in strikeout-to-walk percentage.

If that’s not pure dominance, I’m not sure we’ll ever see it then.

His slight frame has the potential to limit him, but assuming he can maneuver his way through the injury nexus, Yamamoto has a chance to be a solid mid-rotation arm.”

And, simply put, Yamamoto continued to dominate as he moved up a level last season. Consider the following:

Over the last 11 seasons, here’s a list of 21-year-old pitchers to post a 25% or better strikeout percentage and a 7% or less walk percentage in the Carolina League (min. 100 IP): Jordan Yamamoto

And here’s a list of pitchers at any age to achieve the feat in the league: Brad Peacock (22), Eammon Portice (24), Josh Tomlin (23), Randall Delgado (20), Scott Lewis (22), and Tyler Wilson (22).

A few notes on the second bullet point: All but Portice eventually made it to the big leagues and only one of the pitchers, Delgado, was younger than Yamamoto. As I remarked in last year’s book, Yamamoto looks like a mid-rotation arm, a la Peacock or Tomlin. And it remains just as true today.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

7. Jorge Guzman, RHP

Background: Despite being a low level wild card, Guzman’s already been involved in two big trades during his young career. The Astros sent the hard-throwing right-hander to the Yankees last offseason as part of the package for veteran backstop Brian McCann. And just under one year later New York sent Guzman to the Marlins as part of the Giancarlo Stanton mega-deal. Standing a wiry 6-foot-2 and 182 pounds, the Dominican-born right-hander made 13 starts in the New York-Penn League last season, throwing a career-high 66.2 innings while fanning a dominating 88 and walking just 18. He finished his third professional season with a 2.30 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 2.09 xFIP, and a laughably absurd 1.19 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Projection: The actual production – clearly – speaks for itself: Guzman was basically unstoppable during his tour through the short-season level. He paced the New York-Penn League in strikeout percentage, 33.5%; finished with the 13th best walk percentage, 6.8%; and paced the league – by a wide margin – in xFIP (2.09). Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2013, there were one three 21-year-old pitcher to fan more than 30% and walk less than 8.5% of the hitters he faced in the New York-Penn League (min. 50 IP): All-Star right-hander Jordan Zimmerman, who dominated the NYPL after being selected as a second round pick out of the University of Wisconsin at Stevens Point.

Well, that’s incredibly encouraging, isn’t it? Especially considering that Guzman posted a better strikeout percentage (33.5% vs. 32.9%) and a far better walk percentage (6.8% vs. 8.3%). He’s a long, long way away from making it to the big leagues, which adds so many levels of risk. But Guzman could be something special; he just will need to prove himself in full-season action. This is the first time he’s shown anything that resembles control, so that bears watching. I would expect him to split time between Low Class A and High Class A in 2018. Oh, yeah, Guzman reportedly touches 103 mph as a starting pitcher.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

8. Sandy Alcantara, RHP

Background: In a string of a week the Marlins’ new front office led by Yankees great Derek Jeter completely gutted the big league club. On December 7th, Miami shipped off Dee Gordon and international bonus money to Seattle for a package of three prospects headlined by right-hander Nick Neidert. Four days later the Marlins dealt away reigning NL MVP and four-time All-Star Giancarlo Stanton – and his exorbitant contract – to the Yankees for Starlin Castro, Jose Devers, and Jorge Guzman. Then just three days after the mega-swap, Miami sent Marcell Ozuna, coming off of back-to-back All-Star campaigns, to the Cardinals for Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra, Zac Gallen, and Daniel Castano. The best of the return from St. Louis: Alcantara, a 6-foot-4, 170-pound hard-throwing right-hander from Azua, Dominican Republic.

Largely underrated on the national scene heading in last season, despite his dominance between the Midwest and Florida State Leagues the previous year, Alcantara, who posted an impressive 153-to-59 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 122.2 innings in 2016, saw a modest downturn in production as he moved in the minors’ toughest challenge: Class AA.

Making 25 appearances for the Springfield Cardinals, 22 of them coming via the start, the wiry righty tossed a career best 125.1 innings with a mediocre 106-to-54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished his minor league campaign with a 4.31 ERA, 4.62 FIP, 4.44 xFIP, and a horrific 6.04 DRA (Deserved Run Average). Alcantara also made eight brief relief appearances in the big leagues, posting a 6-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the flame-throwing hurler heading into last season when I ranked him as the Cardinals’ fourth best prospect:

“Consider this: Among all minor league hurlers with 120+ innings last season, Alcantara’s strikeout percentage, 28.7%, ranked sixth. Again, that’s out of all MiLB hurlers. So when’s the last time a 20-year-old accomplished this feat? Tyler Glasnow in 2014. Alcantara was absolutely dominating at various points throughout the season. Between May 17th and July 8th, he punched out 77 in just 50.1 innings of work. For those counting at home, that’s a strikeout percentage of nearly 35% and an average of 13.8 K/9. The control/command still has ways to go, but if he can refine it – even a little bit – the sky is the limit. He’s already walking down the path of Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes.”

Obviously, that’s fairly high praise for the young pitcher. And he clearly failed to live up to the hype – especially over his first 13 starts in the Texas League as he posted a 5.53 ERA in 70.0 innings to go along with a worrisome 58-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Now to be fair his numbers picked up – sort of – over his remaining 12 appearances but he clearly struggled throughout the year. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old pitchers to post an 18-20% strikeout percentage and a walk percentage between 8.5-10.5% in the Texas League (min. 100 IP): Alcantara, of course, and Jason Adam, who has battled injuries since 2014.

Obviously, it’s a disappointing comparison. But Alcantara packs quite a punch: the newly acquired Marlin flashed an upper-90s fastball and a mid-80s slider during his brief debut. I’m always weary of teams acquiring pitchers from the Cardinals, simply because St. Louis does a phenomenal job evaluating their own talent (see: Rob Kaminsky). Alcantara is still quite young, but at this point he looks like a backend starting pitcher or potential dominant relief arm.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

9. John Norwood, RF

Background: The track to the big leagues is littered with plenty of busted prospects – even for some of the most highly touted amateurs (see: Kolek, Tyler). So stories like Norwood make it all that more impressive. A little used player during his first two seasons at Vanderbilt, Norwood, who was originally drafted by the Blue Jays in the eleventh round coming out of high school, had a coming out party during his junior campaign: he slugged a solid .298/.368/.404 with 12 doubles, one triple, three homeruns, and 17 stolen bases. But it wasn’t enough to garner serious consideration from any Major League ballclub. Until, that is, he caught the Marlins’ attention after batting .324/.351/.493 in 18 Cape Cod League games. Miami offered him $275,000, the equivalent to a fifth round bonus that year.

Here’s plot twist #2: Norwood looked underwhelming during his debut in short-season ball, hitting a paltry .256/.284/.295 and he followed that up with a league-average triple-slash line in the South Atlantic League (.233/.304/.392). And just when it seemed like he wasn’t going to be able to figure it out…he did. In High Class A. In 127 games, Norwood batted .271/.347/.397 while topping the league average mark by 20%. And then he got better.

Last season, his first in the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, Norwood became a bonafide big league prospect: he slugged .285/.367/.459 with 17 doubles, four triples, 19 homeruns, and four stolen bases. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 41%, the sixth best showing among all qualified Southern League bats.

Projection: A member of the Keep An Eye On section in last year’s book, no one – present company included – could have foreseen Norwood’s arrival in the Southern League last season. But he’s consistently gotten better at each of his stops. And he’s now showing an above-average eye at the plate, solid-average power that could blossom into 15-HR territory, and a smattering of speed.

Consider this:

Since 2006, there have been 16 players to post a 140 wRC+ in the Southern League during their age-24 season. Eleven of those players eventually made it to the big leagues. But here’s the impressive part: of those 11, five players went on to have a season in the big leagues in which they posted at least a 107 wRC+

If history has proven anything, it’s this: don’t ever, ever bet against John Norwood. I like him a lot. He’s one of the better kept secrets in baseball.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

10. James Nelson, 3B

Background: James Nelson: easily the biggest riser in the entire Miami farm system – and in the conversation among all big league prospects. Nelson, a 15th round pick out of Cisco Junior College, had a solid debut in the Gulf Coast League two years ago, batting a respectable .284/.344/.364 with 10 doubles and a dinger. And the Marlins, not typically known as an overly cautious organization when it comes to developing prospects, pushed the now-19-year-old third baseman up to the South Atlantic League to start 2017. And it paid off, handsomely. In 102 games with the Grasshoppers, Nelson slugged an impressive .309/.354/.456 with 31 doubles, a trio of triples, and seven homeruns. He also added a half dozen stolen bases for good measure as well. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 32% – the second best mark among all qualified teenagers in the Sally and the third best showing in either Low Class A league.

Projection: Going back to the aforementioned little tidbit. Here are the two teenagers that bettered Nelson’s overall production in either Low Class A League: San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. and New York’s Estevan Florial, both considered among the game’s best prospects. But let’s take it a couple steps further, shall we? Consider the following:

Obviously, that’s an impressive collection of current and former top prospects. So let’s hone in on Nelson’s particular skill set and production. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, here’s the list of 19-year-old to post a wRC+ between 127 and 137 with a .130 to .170 ISO in the Sally (min. 350 PA): Delino DeShields and Lars Anderson.

The difference between the aforementioned duo and Nelson is pretty simple: patience at the plate. Anderson and DeShields posted double-digit walk rates and Nelson was a lowly 6%. Greensboro’s home field tends to inflate production, but Nelson did manage to hit .299/.358/.408 on the road. Overall, he has the potential to develop into a 15- to 20-homer threat with a decent eye at the plate. One thing to watch: his strikeout rate as he moves forward. Defensively, he played at above-average or better level last season.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.