The Pac-12 is expected to distribute approximately $33 million per schools in media rights for the 2019 fiscal year when its federal tax filings are made public in May, according to Hotline estimates.

The figure, which would represent a 5.4 percent year-over-year increase, is based on NCAA financial reports and statements of revenue that have been published by a cross-section of the conference’s public schools for FY19.

Not all payouts are equal to the dollar, and the method of calculation can vary by university. But the line-item figures examined by the Hotline from Washington State, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA and Cal indicate the average media rights distribution from the conference will fall in the $33 million range, up from the $31.3 million payout in FY18.

The Pac-12 media rights include revenue from the Tier 1 contracts with ESPN and Fox, the Pac-12 Networks, the NCAA Tournament (CBS/Turner) and the college football postseason (ESPN).

The conference’s estimated distributions stand in contrast to the $44.6 million in media rights that the SEC delivered to its schools in FY19 and the $55 million the Big Ten is expected to report when its figures are released this spring.

And that revenue gap — already a source of concern for Pac-12 athletic departments — is expected to expand before it contracts, potentially leaving the conference at a greater resource disadvantage than currently exists through the remainder of the Tier 1 contract cycle.

The Pac-12’s deals with ESPN and Fox expire in the spring of 2024. Commissioner Larry Scott’s current strategy calls for the conference to wait out the expiration dates and make the full complement of its football and men’s basketball inventory available for the negotiating table.

But the potential jackpot is four-and-a-half fiscal years away — an eternity on the campuses.

For context on the potential disparity in revenue that will exist before the Pac-12’s next deal kicks in, consider a likely scenario in the SEC.

The conference’s Game of the Week package on CBS, currently valued at $55 million annually, is moving to ESPN for a payday reportedly in excess of $300 million per year — and perhaps as much as $350 million annually.

In other words, the SEC will earn more each year from those 15-16 broadcasts, which include the SEC championship game, than Pac-12 schools receive each year from the entire Tier 1 contract with Fox and ESPN for 44 football games (and the Pac-12 championship).

According to the term sheet for the Tier 1 deal, which has been obtained by the Hotline, the Pac-12 will collect $262.9 million from ESPN/Fox in the 2020 fiscal year.

That figure increases by 5.1 percent annually, meaning that not until the final year of the deal (FY24) will the conference generate as much Tier 1 revenue ($321 million) as the SEC could receive on an annual basis just from its Game of the Week package.

And the SEC’s move could come sooner than later: ESPN is reportedly planning to buy CBS out of the final years of its deal, which expires in FY24.

Meanwhile, Big Ten, which already distributes $20 million more each year to its schools than the Pac-12, also stands to get richer quicker than the Pac-12.

That conference’s Tier 1 deal with Fox and ESPN expires in the spring of 2023, giving it a one-year advantage over the Pac-12 in the race to the next jackpot.

Scott believes the negotiating leverage created by pooling the Pac-12 inventory at the negotiating table— all the football and men’s basketball games currently on Fox, ESPN and the Pac-12 Networks — will produce a windfall that justifies the wait-it-out strategy.

But what state will the conference be in at that point, relative to its wealthier peers?

The disparity could become so immense over the next four-and-a-half years that the Pac-12 simply cannot catch up — that the disadvantage in resources leads to a competitive gap that cannot be overcome.

With tens of millions more dollars each year, Big Ten and SEC schools will be able to fund every aspect to their football programs — from coaching staffs to facilities, from recruiting budgets to support services — at a far greater level than their Pac-12 peers.

Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens summarized the situation last year in an interview with The Bald Faced Truth radio show on 750-AM The Game in Portland:

“We have to figure out how to close that gap. Resources do matter. We don’t have to have everything that everyone else has but we have to remain in a range that makes us competitive. And right now, we’re drifting out of range.”

The rate of drift, it seems, is about to accelerate.

The Hotline attempted to assign a dollar figure to the revenue gap by determining how much more each SEC and Big Ten school will receive in conference distributions if the Pac-12 sticks to its hunker-down strategy for four-and-a-half years.

Our methodology:

*** We used a five-percent annual escalator in media rights revenue, based on the figure in the Pac-12’s term sheet with ESPN and Fox.

The income received from the NCAA Tournament and college football postseason is, of course, impossible to predict. But because Tier 1 rights account for an outsized portion of conference distributions, a five-percent overall increase seems reasonable.

And because it has been applied universally in our calculations, it would be wrong for each conference.

*** For the timing of the SEC’s Game of the Week move to ESPN, we split the difference:

Our calculations start with FY20; the contract with CBS runs through FY24; so we assigned the move, and resulting windfall, to FY22.

In addition, we used $325 million for the Game of the Week contract figure, which would represent a net increase of $270 million annually — or $19.2 million per school.

*** For the Big Ten’s next Tier 1 deal, which enters our calculation for FY24, we assumed a 39 percent increase in rights.

That figure is based on the most-recent major domestic contract for live sports: Major League Baseball’s revised deal with Fox, which featured a 39 percent bump in annual pay.

*** Figures below are approximate and do not account for money set aside for conference operations.

Big Ten School X

Baseline figure: $55 million in FY19 payouts (from USA Today review of Big Ten financial data).

Annual distributions:

FY20: $57.8 million

FY21: $60.7 million

FY22: $63.7 million

FY23: $66.9 million

FY24: $80.7 million (new Tier 1 deal)

Five-year total: $329.8 per school

SEC School Y

Baseline figure: $44.6 million in FY19 payouts (reported by the SEC).

Annual distributions:

FY20: $46.8 million

FY21: $49.1 million

FY22: $70.9 million (new ESPN deal)

FY23: $74.4 million

FY24: $78.1 million

Five-year total: $319.3 million per school

Pac-12 School Z

Baseline figure: $33 million in FY19 payouts (estimate from published data).

Annual distributions:

FY20: $34.6 million

FY21: $36.3 million

FY22: $38.1 million

FY23: $40.0 million

FY24: $42.0 million

Five-year total: $191 million per school

Five-year disparity between Pac-12 and Big Ten: $138.8 million per school.

Five-year disparity between Pac-12 and SEC: $128.3 million per school.

That revenue gap is comparable to the entire annual athletic department budget for the richest schools in the Pac-12, and it’s approximately twice the size of the budget for the smallest departments.

That gap is comparable to the annual revenue generated by the Pac-12 Networks.

That gap is enough to pay Nick Saban and his entire Alabama coaching staff their current salaries for eight years.

And it begs the questions:

Can the Pac-12 afford to stick to its strategy?

Can it afford to hunker down until the first paycheck arrives from the next Tier 1 deal in FY25?

Take the smaller of the two gaps — $128.3 million with the SEC — and multiply it by the number of schools in the Pac-12, and the collective conference disparity is $1.5 billion.

Think that will help with staff salaries, with resources … with recruiting?

Last winter, the Pac-12 hired a consultant (The Raine Group) to explore the possibility of taking on a strategic partner — an arrangement that would help the conference position itself for the next media rights negotiations and provide an up-front infusion of cash for the schools.

So far, it has not found the right deal.

What’s more, the conference reportedly received an offer from ESPN to take over distribution of the Pac-12 Networks and extend the Tier 1 rights agreement into the 2030s.

The Pac-12, not wanting to have its right locked up for the long haul, declined the offer.

Scott and his leadership team have their eyes on 2024, when the Pac-12 will put everything on the table and wait for the bids to roll in.

“You talk about the future and 2024,’’ Scott said last summer, “and we’ve looked at when everyone’s rights expire. And there’s not a lot of college football content that’s going to be available in next 10 years. The Pac-12 will have more than anyone else that’s going to the market.”

But what will the market look like?

ESPN will be all-in with the SEC by then.

Fox could counter by doing the same with the Big Ten in FY23.

And ESPN has deeper ties to the ACC (through the ACC Network) and the Big 12 (through an ESPN+ deal) than it does with the Pac-12.

Will there be enough money available to pay the Pac-12 what it expects?

Will there be enough broadcast windows available to provide the Pac-12 with premium exposure?

Or will they say: We’ll give you all the airtime you want, after 10 p.m. Eastern.

Also, will the Pac-12’s on-field product be worthy of top dollar if the schools face a steep resource disadvantage for four-and-a-half more years?

One could argue that a $128+ million revenue gap qualifies as drifted out of range.

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