It's after any recession that the real problems can start for climate advocates. Helen Mountford of the World Resources Institute said that post-recession economies can see a surge in emissions: "After the global financial crisis of 2008, for example, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production grew 5.9 percent in 2010 , more than offsetting the 1.4 percent decrease in 2009." This time, she hopes “low-carbon and resilient infrastructure” would be a priority in any stimulus package to avoid an uptick in emissions as economies recover.

Here are factors that could help and hurt the climate, in both the short and longer terms:

FIVE WAYS CORONA HELPS THE ENVIRONMENT:

Improvements in air quality: Hubei province, China has been the big winner. Marshall Burke, a researcher at Stanford University, calculated that the improvements in air quality recorded in China may have saved the lives of 4,000 children under 5 years old and 73,000 adults over 70. Read his blog post . Better air is saving more people than coronavirus is killing, in other words. Traffic is down in some of Europe’s dirtiest cities, which have chronically failed to respect EU air quality limits.

Industry shut-downs reduce emissions: A study by specialist outlet Carbon Brief found that in China, carbon dioxide emissions have fallen by around 25 percent, and declining oil demand should push emissions down globally. Airlines are also cutting flights. Beware: If passengers are flying on half-empty planes, fewer flyers does not equal fewer emissions.

Minds may open for structural change: The focus is on health and supply chains right now. But the process of challenging assumptions and fundamentally altering behavior — illustrated by remote work — can be seized on by climate action advocates once the worst of this health crisis is over.

Public financial institutions will push green stimulus: Green investment is a pet interest of Kristalina Georgieva (International Monetary Fund head) and Christine Lagarde (European Central Bank president), while the European Investment Bank is already getting out of coal. Look for regional and global bodies to push green investment incentives.

Low oil prices make it harder for the dirtiest oil to compete, and easier to cut subsidies: Oil prices are at four-year lows thanks to the collapse of the OPEC+ oil cartel, as Russia seeks to drive American oil shale producers out of the market (it may prove too expensive for shale companies to extract their oil in a low-price environment). Meanwhile, governments reluctant to cut expensive and market distorting subsidies for car fuel and heating oil, can now do so with less political pain.

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FOUR WAYS CORONA WILL HURT THE ENVIRONMENT:

Political and financial capital will be diverted: Governments will be forced to prioritize public health and struggling banks may change lending criteria, and use the crisis to revise their green targets.

Mountains of waste: Coffee chain Starbucks decided to stop accepting reusable cups from its customers — now it’s only serving drinks in disposable single-use cups that are not yet recyclable. China is drowning under medical waste (often single-use items by necessity) produced by hospitals. In the city of Wuhan, it’s quadrupled to more than 200 tons a day.

Home energy use will go up: With oil prices down, more people working from home and public transport a place where coronavirus spreads, consumer energy use will go up. Take demand for home entertainment: Germany’s Deutsche Commercial Internet Exchange interconnection platform, or De-Cix , reported a record throughput of data this week.

Low profits reduce what a company can invest in risky and long-term bets. Regulation could force a shift to clean energy, but that’s unlikely in the United States and China in a year when the industry is suffering financial losses.

EUROPE AND CANADA STICK TO THE GREEN SCRIPT … MOSTLY: Canadian Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson told reporters Tuesday that he expects climate change to remain a central focus of the 2020 Canadian budget, despite the need for emergency coronavirus measures. "Canadians also told us that climate is a huge priority and that will be reflected when we see the budget," he said. On Tuesday, the U.K. government gave electric cars and carbon capture a boost in its 2020 budget .

In Brussels, the European Parliament chose to delay a climate law debate. The European Commission (the EU’s executive) pushed ahead to launch a green industrial strategy, including support for hydrogen technologies. That’s potentially big news for Alstom’s hydrogen trains, and Germany didn’t waste anytime announcing its own supplementary strategy to become the world’s “leading provider of CO2-free hydrogen technologies .”

The circular economy plan comes with a series of 35 legislative measures that will be spelled out between 2020 and 2023: here’s POLITICO’s 5 takeaways . An EU-mandated technical expert group released its final report on which 70 activities should count as sustainable investment activities.

WOULD YOU GO BACK TO HANDKERCHIEFS DURING THE CORONA CRISIS? A Danish Eco-Startup launched LastTissue this week (a follow-up to their reusable Q-tip LastSwab). You get six reusable handkerchiefs made from organic cotton, carried inside a silicone, dishwasher safe carrying case. “Tissues and single-use items are destroying the planet,” co-founder Isabel Aagaard said by email. But what about coronavirus? The founders recommend “people wipe their nose or cough into a tissue and not onto the back of their hand or into their blouse,” wash hands as per government instructions, and to wash their tissues at 140°F (60°C).

GLOBAL GREEN GLANCES

Abu Dhabi leads Middle East green charge: Abu Dhabi is planning to be free of single-use plastic bags by 2021, Environment Agency Abu Dhabi announced. Residents currently use an average of 1,184 plastic bags per person, per year, compared to a global average of 307.

Weakened Amazon rainforest facing collapse within 50 years

Is China’s thirst for soybeans destroying the Amazon rainforest? The crop is fed to pigs: because China lacks the water to grow the soybeans. More in this Global Dispatches podcast

What if products and services came with carbon warning labels?

A meat-lover’s guide to eating less meat.

