In the first in a series on the aftermath of the 21st century’s most devastating conflict, refugees from the seven-year war say they are hugely sceptical about claims that it is safe to return home

Each day for as long as he can remember, Abu Ahmed, a Syrian merchant, has hawked Qur’anic pamphlets in central Beirut, one eye out for a buyer and another for the police.

He has been in the Lebanese capital for the past six years, as war consumed his homeland, casting more than a million refugees like him into near permanent exile. Now, however, as the seven-year conflict approaches what many believe to be an endgame in Syria’s north-west, Abu Ahmed fears his meagre, but so far safe existence is in jeopardy.

The blazing guns of insurgency have largely been silenced in central and southern Syria, and politicians in Damascus, Beirut and Amman are claiming with increasing vehemence that a ruined country from which at least 6 million people have fled is now a safe for them to return.

Few Syrians in Lebanon seem convinced. “I’ll serve my country proudly and shed my blood for it with a smile on my face, but not like this,” said Abu Ahmed, 41, who hails from the former opposition stronghold of Ghouta.

“But not for this chaos. We can’t go back because of [the risk of] neighbours’ petty revenge. They snitch on you and call you a traitor and the next thing you know you’re languishing in prison, for nothing. My town is filled with regime forces and thugs. How do they expect me to return?”

International donors, aid workers and diplomats are also wary of the insistence that postwar Syria is safe, and of the motives behind the claims. Senior representatives of all three say the relative quiet in Syria should not be confused with enduring order, and that entreaties from the country’s president, Bashar al-Assad, are unlikely to mean a warm homecoming.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Many Syrians believe they will not be safe in Syria while Bashar al-Assad remains in power. Photograph: Uncredited/AP

Throughout the war, the loyalties of Lebanon’s political class have been split on Syria, with roughly half of its parliament opposed to Assad, and the rest stridently behind him. With his government now backed into a winning position by Russia and Iran, some holdouts are trying to reposition themselves. Those who remained allied are meanwhile readily doing Assad’s bidding. Establishing a view that security, and forgiveness, await returnees is a central message.

“We invite all friendly nations to handle the Syria issue realistically,” said the Lebanese foreign minister, Gebran Bassil. “It is not in anyone’s interest for Lebanon’s economy to collapse under heavy migration. The circumstances in Syria have changed and many areas are safe. There is no reason for refugees to stay.”

In Jordan, whose monarch, King Abdullah, opposed Assad in the early stages of the war, the mood has also shifted. Thewelcome given to refugees as the Syria unravelled in 2012 has been replaced by rising hostility and forced deportations. Abdullah told the UN refugee commissioner, Filippo Grandi, earlier this week: “The international community must face its responsibility towards the hosting countries and at the top of them is Jordan. The Syrian crisis has taken a toll on Jordanian infrastructure, economy, education sector and wellbeing.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Children sit with their baggage during the evacuation, Aleppo, Syria in December 2016. Photograph: Ghith Sy/EPA

Many who have monitored the crisis, in which at least 600,000 people have been killed and more than half the prewar population displaced, say claims of a groundshift in Syria are false.

“Syrians should be able to decide whether they feel safe enough to return to Syria,” said a former member of the UK government’s Syria team. “We must remember why Syrians fled their homes in the first place: barrel bombs, besiegement, starvation, detention and torture.

“For the millions who risked everything to make it to Lebanon, they did it because they had no other choice. The fact is, many Syrians will not be safe in Syria while Assad remains in power. They face being arrested, disappeared, detained, tortured, executed. To force them to return may be signing their death warrants.”

Central to Lebanon’s claims are that the number of refugees has taken a toll on its moribund economy and taken jobs in a workforce where unemployment levels have also been growing. Human Rights Watch said the claims are not supported by evidence, and that refugees were being scapegoated for shortcomings in Lebanon’s economy that predated the war.

“The war in Syria has certainly hurt Lebanon’s economy because of the slowdown in trade, but that’s not attributable to the refugee crisis,” said HRW’s Lebanon researcher, Bassam Khawaja. Refugees have put a strain on infrastructure in Lebanon, from the school system to waste management, but on the other hand, the international community has poured in $5bn (£3.9bn) in aid since 2011. And refugees spending money on everything from rent to groceries in Lebanon has strengthened the economy.

“Neighbouring governments can claim that Syria is safe all they want, that doesn’t make it a fact. As long as refugees have well-founded fears of death or persecution inside Syria, then it’s illegal for host countries to force or coerce them to return.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Children are seen on the rubble of a building in the Jarabulus district of Aleppo,. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

On Beirut’s Hamra Street, Umm Hani, 49, from rural Damascus, fears just that: “I have three sons, all above 18,” she says. “If we stayed they would have been taken to the military and I cannot see that happen nor will I let it happen. What mother wants her sons to die? One of my sons is paralysed, the other two work as hard as they can, but we can barely make ends meet end of the month. Our village became notorious for arbitrary arrests and we couldn’t remain. I am counting down the days for safety; I miss my home.”

Like many refugees, Umm Hani – not her real name – chose her words carefully. Others who spoke to the Guardian say they have heard constant reports from inside Syria that those who had returned faced extreme vetting from security agencies and a high risk of detention, especially if they come from opposition-held areas.

Maj Gen Jamal al-Hassan, the head of Syria’s air force intelligence and one of country’s most senior security chiefs, told senior colleagues from other agencies in July: “A Syria with 10 million trustworthy people obedient to the leadership is better than a Syria with 30 million vandals.” The comments were first reported by the Syrian Observer, and later confirmed. “After eight years, Syria will not accept the presence of cancerous cells and they will be removed completely.”

Vengeance has been a regular theme of the rhetoric of Syrian officials, who have discussed the postwar phase – and the looming offensive on Idlib province with allies in Beirut. “Anyone who stood against them will be punished along with their family and clan,” said a senior Lebanese military officer in regular contact with Syrian counterparts. “They are ruthless and they have won. They have long memories, and this is their chance to make the country they want.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Syrian refugees at the Qab Elias informalsSettlement in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Impunity also appears to be creeping into the Lebanese political discourse. “Politicians in Lebanon have attacked [UN refugee agency] UNHCR for speaking the plain truth,” said HRW’s Khawaja. “That truth is there are no security guarantees in Syria and that it cannot encourage or facilitate returns at this point.”

Amid the rising rhetoric, the realities for Syrians in Lebanon is stark. UN figures show 74% of refugees do not have legal residency, 76% live below the poverty line and more than 300,000 children are not in school. Feeling squeezed and hopeless, a steady stream are returning regardless of the danger.

Not Abu Ahmed though. For him, the risks are too high. “Once we see the cops though we all duck and run. We have no residency permits. Will I go back soon? I doubt it. Will I stay here? I also doubt it. We’ve become gypsies.”

