LIHUE — Ocean temperatures could have more sway over sea level rise than air temperatures, according to new research on The Greenland Ice Sheet, which scientists say will contribute greatly to sea level rise over the coming centuries.

“This information can be fed into large scale ice sheet models that are used to predict sea level rise,” said Tom Cowton, of the school of Geography and Sustainable Development at the University of St. Andrews, who led the study.

Glacier retreat is just one factor in sea level rise, according to the University of Hawaii School of Ocean and Earth Science Technology.

SOEST scientists say global sea level rise is the product of two main things — melting ice on Antarctica, Greenland and from alpine glaciers and the thermal expansion of seawater due to surface warming.

The new University of St. Andrews research comes on the heels of an April announcement that research has begun at the Thwaites Glacier in the Antarctic ice-sheet and whether the collapse of the Antarctic glacier could raise global sea levels even higher than current predictions by the end of the century.

“The glacier has been thinning and speeding up due to increased melting beneath its floating tongue. Our concern is that breakup of the ice tongue could greatly accelerate the rate of ice loss in the near future, with a big impact on sea level,” said study lead Doug Benn, professor of Environmental Change at St. Andrews in April.

Predictions in Hawaii are that the sea level will rise 3.2 feet by the year 2100 and recent projections suggest that magnitude could be reached as early as the year 2060, according to the state’s Hawaii Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report.

Counties across the state have started taking steps to educate the public and working on mitigation strategies, like the July 16 mayoral directive for Honolulu City and County to take steps to prepare for sea level rise and Kauai’s Aloha+Challenge, which inspires community members to make choices that lower carbon footprints and increase sustainability.

“In our Sea Level Rise Adaptation Recommendations section of last year’s report to the Hawaii State Legislature we emphasized that county governments should be planning for wave overwash, groundwater inundation, erosion, and drainage backflow resulting from an acceleration in sea level rise of 3.2 feet by mid-century,” said Suzanne Case, Department of Land and Natural Resources chair.

She pointed out research shows a potential for as much as six feet of sea level rise in later decades of this century and beyond.

The goal for the research ongoing in Greenland is to help bring accurate sea level rise forecasts and to better predict climate change. Predicting how quickly the ice sheet will shrink is difficult due to “poor understanding of the rapid changes where the ice sheet meets the ocean,” according to the University of St. Andrews.

The study examined the behavior of 10 large glaciers in east Greenland over a 20-year period using satellite imagery to track their retreat.

The research, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found variations in ocean temperature had an impact on glacier melting rates.

“While we cannot predict the detailed retreat of individual glaciers, our findings enable us to approximate likely retreat rates based on air and ocean warming scenarios,” Cowton said.

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Jessica Else, environment reporter, can be reached at 245-0452 or at jelse@thegardenisland.com.