In 2016, despite Hillary Clinton carried the state of Vermont by 26.41%, Republican Phil Scott won the Gubernatorial race by 8.74%. According to the latest Gravis Marketing poll of Vermont, Donald Trump remains widely unpopular in the state receiving a 33%-64% approval rating. The statewide elected officials in Vermont are much more popular than the President. Senator Bernie Sanders is at 63%-34%, Patrick Leahy is at 65%-29% and Phil Scott is at 62%-33%.

In the race for United States Senate, Independent Bernie Sanders is well on his way to reelection over Lawrence Zupan by a 66%-30% margin. While only carrying 13% of Republicans, Sanders carries 90% of Democrats and 70% of independents. The gender gap is quite large with Sanders carrying women 78%-20% and men 53%-41%. In the race for Vermont’s only Congressional seat, Peter Welch is in a solid position over Anya Tynio 66%-28%.

In the race for Governor, Phil Scott is in a good position to be reelected. Scott leads Christine Hallquist 49%-39%. The potential danger for Scott is if he fails to reach a majority. Under Vermont law, the legislature would decide the race if no candidate receives a majority. While it has been over 150 years since the legislature selected a winner that was not the top vote recipient if there is no majority. With a sizeable Democratic majority, it is possible that the legislature would vote in Hallquist if given the opportunity.

The same majority requirement applies to the Lieutenant Gubernatorial election; however, Zuckerman leads Don Turner 53%-38%. Turner carries men 46%-45% while Zuckerman carries women 61%-30%.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 885 likely voters was conducted October 30th through November 1st and has a margin of error of ±3.3%. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users and interactive voice responses (IVR). This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Questions can be direction to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Vermont_November_1_2018.pdf