By many measures this should be the best of times for Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP she leads.

She’s ranked as the most popular and the most trustworthy of the three major party leaders in Ontario, faring better in public opinion polls than either Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne or Conservative leader Patrick Brown.

She’s also an experienced campaigner, having led the NDP in the last two elections, and has survived the storms that face any leader during an intense election battle. In addition, she has a relatively strong team of veteran MPPs who can deliver votes in their respective ridings.

Add in the fact Wynne is highly unpopular right now and Brown is still widely unknown and it’s easy to see why you’d expect Horwarth and the NDP to be riding high just one year away from the June 7, 2018, provincial election.

But instead, these may be the worst of times for Horwath and the NDP.

While the mantra of “time for change” is strong after 14 years of Liberal rule, voters unhappy with Wynne are shifting to the Conservatives — not the NDP.

Indeed, the party is mired in third place in the polls behind the Conservatives and Liberals and has been almost since the last election in 2014. Its popular support is stuck in the 22-to 24-per-cent range, virtually unchanged from the 23.7 per cent it received in the 2014 election, while the Tories have surged at the expense of the Liberals.

At the same time, barely 44 per cent of voters can identify Horwath as the party leader even though she’s held that job for eight years.

As well, the NDP has lost seven straight byelections since the 2014 vote, even losing the Sudbury riding in 2015 that it had won in the general election. The most devastating defeat came just two weeks ago when the NDP finished second behind the Tories in Sault Ste. Marie, a riding the NDP felt confident of winning.

Meanwhile, the Tories have won two byelections in ridings previously held by the Liberals and held on to all three ridings they had won in 2014.

What’s gone so wrong for Horwath?

As tempting as it is for NDP voters to blame the media for dismissing Horwath, the reality is that she hasn’t been able to connect with voters. Even senior NDP officials concede she’s a poor “retail” politician, failing to spark genuine excitement for her personally.

Some NDP insiders also admit Horwath has failed to fully recover from the internal party fight that erupted in the midst of what was a disappointing 2014 campaign when senior NDP supporters openly accused her of moving the party so far to the middle on policy that the Liberals were able to claim the “progressive” ground on key issues.

Ultimately, two-thirds of Ontarians fall into the “progressive” camp. That's traditionally where Ontario Liberals play — and when they win it’s often because they champion progressive ideas.

In the coming election, Horwath will campaign heavily on the need to cut hydro rates, increase hospital funding and implement a full pharmacare program.

But in recent months, Wynne has unveiled a series of progressive-friendly measures, from raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour to rent controls, more affordable daycare space, pharmacare for residents under 25 and free post-secondary education for tens of thousands of student.

These moves have left Horwath to suggest in a Canadian Press interview that the Liberals “tend to steal” ideas first initiated by the NDP.

Horwath also must deal with a general lack of a political ground organization, especially at the riding level, which has likely worsened since the huge setback the federal NDP suffered in 2015. Also, Horwath could lose her strongest organizer in the Peel region if MPP Jagmeet Singh wins the federal NDP leadership race.

Combined, these factors add up to a tough election for the NDP.

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By the time of the 2018 election, Horwath will have been NDP leader for nine years. She can point with pride to some successes, lifting the party from 10 seats in the 2007 election to 17 seats in 2011, her first campaign as leader, and to 21 seats in 2014. That’s a big improvement over the Howard Hampton years, yet far behind the 74 seats won under Rae in 1990.

But unless she can pull off a miracle and start winning over many of the disillusioned voters who are now moving from the Liberal to the Tories, it’s likely Horwath will be gone as leader soon after the results of 2018 are made final.

Bob Hepburn's column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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