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“The atmosphere doesn’t know, probably doesn’t care, where the CO2 is coming from,” said Isaacs.

If one considers that each of the mitigation pathways is far-fetched, then together they are especially unlikely

The conclusion Isaacs reaches is that use of biofuels and biomass for energy isn’t especially environmentally friendly — perhaps even less friendly than coal. The production of biofuels, for example, requires turning carbon-capturing land over to crop production; the burning of wood requires the cutting of forests, with a long recovery period as trees are regrown.

But other methods of saving the planet aren’t on pace to help, either. Isaacs writes that figures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that CO2 emissions must drop by 90 per cent by 2050 while, at the same time, energy demands are likely to increase around the world.

Other methods of energy production must increase by hundreds of percentile points, and there would need to be a simultaneously significant expansion of currently unwieldy carbon capture and storage facilities. In the four scenarios Isaacs explores, nuclear power generation would have to increase by 98 per cent all the way up to 501 per cent, and building nuclear facilities is both politically challenging and logistically difficult, especially if ramping up at the needed pace. Other energy sources, such as solar and wind and hydro would need to increase by 832 per cent to 1,327 per cent, to cover off demand, compared to 2010 levels of output.

“If one considers that each of the mitigation pathways is far-fetched, then together they are especially unlikely,” the report notes.

Simon Dyer, the executive director of Pembina Institute, the energy think-tank, says the report confirms what “climate strikers” already know: governments aren’t doing enough.

“The report points out that for every scenario that holds warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, demand for oil declines while demand for renewables goes through the roof. And that’s bad news for any government that puts its all its eggs in the fossil fuel basket. There’s no evidence we don’t have the tools to decarbonize. We just aren’t using them,” said Dyer.

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