How that debate will play out in the new administration has become a central question among Afghan officials here.

The immediate existential threat to the Afghan government has been a resurgent Taliban, who officials say have been killing 30 to 50 members of the security forces each day in recent months. The insurgents are directly threatening important provincial capitals and have again made important roadways hazardous or impassable to government forces.

The Taliban, whose leadership is mostly taking shelter in Pakistan, insist that they are focused only on regaining power within Afghanistan. And some Russian officials, including the special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, have openly acknowledged maintaining some contact with the Taliban as a possible hedge against other militant groups if the government fails, though the officials insist that has not extended to aiding the insurgency.

Still, the insurgency’s recent success is directly threatening the Afghan government’s stability, and it is creating a territorial vacuum that other groups are trying to exploit.

An increasing focus of the United States counterterrorism operation has been the local affiliate of the Islamic State, which calls itself the Islamic State in the Khorasan, an ancient name for this region.

After heavy losses over the past year to American airstrikes and Afghan ground operations, the Islamic State cell is estimated at no more than a thousand fighters, most of them former members of the Pakistani Taliban from the tribal areas, according to a senior American official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence.