It has long been a goal of the Silph Research Group to display live shiny rate data for newly released shiny Pokémon during an event. Superficially this is an easy task, but there are pitfalls lurking just beneath the surface. Along with the normal challenges of deducing an accurate shiny rate (e.g. full reporting), researchers also have to ensure that their reporting patterns are non-biased. Researchers who find a shiny surprise can’t rush to report their data while the unlucky ones continue to collect data out in the field.

Our group has been experimenting with several methods for rapid data collection and are confident enough to start throwing around some Aipom numbers a mere nine hours into the event. We’ll keep this mini-analysis updated over the course of the week as our researchers narrow in on the true shiny rate for this event! While we are still working out the kinks, these numbers should be taken as rough estimates rather than confirmed fact.

5/10/2019 13:30 UTC Update

Two and a half days into the Detective Pikachu Event, researchers have amassed over 20,000 Aipom encounters with a shiny rate (and 95% confidence interval) of:

1 in 470

95% CI of 350 – 630

It is almost certain that the shiny rate of Aipom is not boosted above the standard rate of 1 in 450. The Silph Research Group is closing down data collection at this time, so this will be the final update. Thanks for checking in, and we’ll see you next time!