Wisconsin taxpayers could wind up paying more to keep existing passenger train service from Milwaukee to Chicago than they would have paid to run new high-speed rail service from Milwaukee to Madison, according to a Journal Sentinel analysis of state figures.

The Legislature's budget committee voted 12-2 Tuesday to spend $31.6 million in mostly borrowed state money on Amtrak's Milwaukee-to-Chicago Hiawatha line, costs that could have been paid largely by an $810 million federal grant that would have extended the Hiawatha to Madison.

But Tuesday's vote doesn't cover all the spending that will be needed to keep running the Hiawatha, a growing service that carried nearly 800,000 passengers last year.

State transportation officials have estimated they would need millions more for locomotives, signals and a new maintenance base, even without expanding service beyond the current seven daily round trips.

And, like the spending approved Tuesday, all or most of those new costs would have been covered by the federal grant spurned by Gov. Scott Walker last year. That's because the Milwaukee-to-Madison service would have operated as an extension of the Hiawatha, as part of a larger plan to connect Chicago to the Twin Cities and other Midwestern destinations with fast, frequent trains.

Taken together, state taxpayers' share of the Hiawatha capital costs that would have been covered by the federal grant could total as much as $99 million, significantly more than the $30 million they would have paid for 20 years of operating costs on the Milwaukee-to-Madison segment, as estimated by former Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle's administration.

Walker had cited those operating costs as his main reason for opposing the 110-mph extension. Federal money would have paid all of its capital costs. And that doesn't count the other potential benefits that high-speed rail supporters have cited from the Milwaukee-to-Madison line, such as jobs, economic development, expanded tax base and improved freight rail tracks.

Conversely, high-speed rail opponents contend the Milwaukee-to-Madison extension could have cost taxpayers more than budgeted, even though the $810 million grant included a cushion of more than $150 million to cover inflation and unexpected cost overruns. They have questioned estimates on ridership, revenue and operating costs, as well as projections for economic development and job creation.

That debate played out Tuesday in the Legislature's Joint Finance Committee, as Democrats backed the passenger rail measure but said it showed that the Republican governor's decision to cancel the high-speed rail line had cost the state thousands of construction jobs, lower service levels and - in the short term, at least - money. They pointed to an estimate from the Legislature's nonpartisan budget office that found that the federal funds would have covered at least $22.4 million of the additional costs approved by the panel Tuesday.

"We had an opportunity to take advantage of federal funding in one of the tightest budgets in years," said Sen. Lena Taylor (D-Milwaukee), calling the spending an example of "Walker math."

All Republicans except Sen. Glenn Grothman (R-West Bend) and Sen. Joe Leibham (R-Sheboygan) also backed the measure. They countered that the bills stem in part from a train maintenance contract entered into by the Doyle administration, and said the Milwaukee-to-Madison project also could have brought expensive cost overruns.

"We'll never know, thank goodness," said Rep. Robin Vos (R-Rochester), committee co-chairman. "The taxpayers don't have to worry."

Vos said Walker "has always been a supporter of Amtrak from Milwaukee to Chicago," a route strongly backed by the southeastern Wisconsin business community. Indeed, after the federal government pulled back the $810 million grant, Walker's administration unsuccessfully sought $213.3 million in federal aid for Hiawatha costs.

Walker spokesman Cullen Werwie characterized Tuesday's vote as "action to pay another one of Governor Doyle's bills." He said Walker had made it "crystal clear" that the long-term operating costs of the Milwaukee-to-Madison segment would have been a bigger burden on state taxpayers than paying some Hiawatha costs up front.

Yet the state's own numbers call that contention into question. While some of those figures could change, it appears the state eventually could spend $11.7 million on a temporary maintenance base, up to $60.1 million on a permanent maintenance base, up to $10.2 million on train shed upgrades at the downtown Amtrak-Greyhound station, $6.6 million on signal upgrades at the station and at least $10.4 million on new locomotives - all costs the federal government would have paid.

Even if state transportation officials could cut the cost of the maintenance base in half, the state's share of Milwaukee-to-Chicago capital costs that would have been covered by federal aid still would be more than 20 years of Milwaukee-to-Madison operating costs.

Reggie Newson, executive assistant to Transportation Secretary Mark Gottlieb, disagreed that all those costs would fall to taxpayers or would exceed the Milwaukee-to-Madison operating costs. Newson said the Department of Transportation hoped to pay some of the Milwaukee-to-Chicago costs through "existing means," including the farebox revenue that covers two-thirds of Hiawatha operating expenses.

Here's a closer look at those numbers, from the federal grant applications, the Transportation Department's funding request to the committee and other information provided to the Journal Sentinel.

Operating costs: The Doyle administration projected that Milwaukee-to-Madison service would have cost $16.5 million a year to operate. Fares would have covered $8.9 million, with another $110,000 from food service revenue. That would have left $7.5 million for taxpayers to pick up, but state officials have said they could have used existing federal aid to cover 80% to 90%, reducing the state share to no more than $1.5 million.

Although Republicans may dispute those projections, Doyle administration transportation officials have called those estimates conservative. They don't account for higher ridership from moving the Madison station downtown, lower fuel costs from newer trains or higher food service revenue from adding bistro cars instead of walking food carts down the aisles.

Train cars: Under Doyle, the state borrowed $47.5 million for its no-bid contract with Spanish train manufacturer Talgo Inc. to build two 14-car train sets to replace aging Amtrak-owned passenger cars on the Hiawatha line. Spare parts and design changes - such as adding wireless Internet service for passengers and improving sight lines for the crew - could boost the cost by $3.6 million, plus another $6.9 million to pay a British consulting company to oversee manufacturing.

After using $800,000 from lower-than-expected fuel costs, the committee agreed to borrow the remaining $9.7 million. Doyle's former transportation secretary, Frank Busalacchi, has said the $810 million federal grant would have covered those costs. Current state and federal transportation officials disagree with Busalacchi, although the Legislative Fiscal Bureau found the federal aid might have covered some of the consulting contract with British-owned Interfleet Technology Inc.

Maintenance bases: The state's contract with Talgo requires it to provide a maintenance base for the company to service the trains it builds. State officials have already spent $3.2 million to retrofit Talgo's plant in the Century City complex as a temporary maintenance base, and equipping that base will cost another $8.5 million. All sides agree the federal grant would have paid that $11.7 million, which the panel agreed to borrow.

But the north side plant, formerly home to Tower Automotive, can only be used as a maintenance base for three years, because of restrictions imposed by the freight railroad that owns the tracks connecting it to the downtown Amtrak-Greyhound station, the fiscal bureau said. Earlier this year, state officials asked the federal government to cover $48.1 million of the $60.1 million cost of turning the Talgo plant into a permanent base, plus $27.6 million for track upgrades.

With that request rejected, state officials now seek to build a permanent base closer to the station, Newson said. He said the new base would cost "much less than $60 million" but declined to predict a new price range.

Train shed: Citing federal rules for access to the disabled, state officials are pushing to rebuild the downtown station's train shed, the area where passengers get on and off trains. The federal grant would have covered that cost, estimated at $20.4 million.

Transportation officials have said they would use other federal aid to cover half the cost, and the committee agreed to borrow the other $10.2 million.

Locomotives: State officials had sought $106.2 million in federal aid to buy two more train sets and eight locomotives to expand service and replace the old Amtrak-owned units now powering the line. Those costs would have been covered by the original $810 million grant.

Each locomotive would cost about $5.2 million, and the state would need at least two at existing service levels. Newson said the state would use current equipment until it could use existing resources to buy new locomotives.

Signals: The state sought $6.6 million in federal cash to improve signals at the downtown station. Newson said state officials would wait until they could do that work with existing resources.

Patrick Marley of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.