The Portland Timbers open their 2015 MLS season Saturday night against a familiar foe with some different faces. While the Timbers are familiar with Western Conference Rival Real Salt Lake, RSL appears to be in the midst of a club transition. Many of the faces who line up against Portland will be different. Adding to the intrigue, one of RSL’s constants over the last few years, center-back Nat Borchers, will be taking the pitch for the Timbers as part of their upgraded defense.

Timbers: Injuries, New Faces, Changes

For Portland, the new faces in the starting lineup will be due mostly to injury, and one of them is an old face the Timbers were hoping they wouldn’t have to rely on as a starter this season. Headed into their season opener it’s fair to say that eight of the 11 starting spots are basically locked in place.

Those would be: GK – Adam Kwarasey, RB – Alvas Powell, CB – Nat Borchers, CB – Liam Ridgewell, LB – Jorge Villafana, CM – Diego Chara, CM – Jack Jewsbury, LM/LW – Rodney Wallace.

A ninth spot, occupied by Darlington Nagbe, is basically guaranteed, though there is a question of whether he will start on the right wing as he did most of last year, or if he will be played in the central attacking midfield role as he did in their last preseason game last week.

That leaves two spots still up for grabs, though one of those is probably also almost set in stone. At striker, Fanendo Adi is most likely to start, though far from guaranteed. Timbers’ head coach Caleb Porter experimented with different attacking combinations in the preseason, in both the 4-3-3 and 4-4-2 formations. Against the Chicago Fire in the Simple Invitational, Porter started with Gaston Fernandez and Maxi Urruti up top in a 4-4-2 and then brought on Darlington Nagbe and Fanendo Adi to replace them in the second half. Against Stabaek later in the week Porter reverted to the 4-3-3, this time with Adi up top, Nagbe in the central attacking midfield role, and newcomer Dairon Asprilla playing wide right.

Despite scoring only once, the attack against Stabaek seemed to create the most attacking chances of any lineup that the Timbers played with this preseason. While Portland headed into preseason with most assuming Gaston Fernandez would replace the injured Diego Valeri and Nagbe would stay out wide, given the success they had against Stabaek, I think it’s most likely that the Timbers will go with Adi up top, Nagbe in the middle underneath the striker, and Dairon Asprilla providing the speed out wide.

The other question heading into Saturday’s opener is whether Portland will come out on the attack, seeking to dominate the ball as they have in previous years under Porter, or whether they may play a bit more conservatively and look to hit on the counter.

With Will Johnson and Ben Zemanski both out, Jack Jewsbury is forced to step in to replace Johnson in the starting lineup. To add to the potential troubles, Diego Chara has missed most of practice this week recovering from a calf contusion he suffered against Vancouver in the Simple Invitational. If Chara, who Caleb Porter has called a game-time decision, cannot play, second year player George Fochive would likely step into his place. While the Timbers think highly of Fochive’s potential, he’s probably not ready for starting minutes. If he’s forced to start, Portland may look to play more conservatively, to try and lessen the pressure on Jewsbury and Fochive to both contribute in the attack and be the shield for the back four.

If Portland is forced to go with Fochive in Chara’s place, Nagbe in the middle and Asprilla wide will be even more important. Nagbe is one of the best in the league at turning a ball recovery into a counter-attack. His vision, pace, and ball control allow him to almost instantly turn a ball won into a movement up the field at high speed. While he’s by no means a great defensive player Nagbe does show more willingness to defend than Gaston Fernandez, something that will be important with a weakened defensive midfield presence.

Asprilla’s speed on the wing and Adi’s physical presence up top both give great outlets to get the counter-attack going. Aspirlla also showed great willingness in the preseason to work hard getting back and defending, something Portland’s wingers struggled to do early in the season last year.

The Opposition:

RSL enters this game in transition, both in personnel, and system. One of the new faces, Jamison Olave, is an old face back from a couple years in New York. In addition to sending Borchers to Portland this offseason, RSL also lost Chris Wingert from their defense, and midfielders Ned Grabavoy and Sebastian Velazquez.

Perhaps the biggest change in MLS this offseason is the fact that RSL appears to be transitioning from the 4-4-2 diamond they’ve played for as long as anyone can remember, to a 4-3-3.

Given roster turnover, system change, and age (Javier Morales, Jamison Olave, Nick Rimando, Alvaro Saborio, and Kyle Beckerman are all 32 or older), it wouldn’t be unfair to expect RSL to start to decline this season. Last year was already a bit down from the Jason Kreis era, so the slide may continue.

Prediction:

Despite mostly holding course in the offseason, Portland heads into their first game with a lot of change expected. A month from now it may be necessary to write an in-season team reset or preview when Will Johnson and Diego Valeri come back, but for now it looks like a lineup full of change forced by missing key pieces.

Despite all the change happening in the RSL camp and their age, the instability in Portland, and Portland’s general struggles against RSL, this should be a tight game. While Portland looks like the better team when healthy, the fact is that they’re not healthy. Don’t be surprised if RSL goes into Providence Park and comes away with a close win. For my part, I’m going with a 1-1 draw.

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