The silver lining, should you wish to look for some, is a relatively favorable compositional change in America's bilateral trade flows with those countries. U.S. exports to South Korea, for example, were soaring 22 percent in the first half of this year. American sales to China and Japan were also advancing at a fast clip, but those countries' exports to the U.S. were also maintaining strong gains.

Things could change for the worse, though, if, as seems likely, the deteriorating security conditions in Northeast Asia were to lead to declining regional trade. In that case, the American market could become an irresistible alternative for Korean, Japanese and Chinese export sales.

That cannot be ruled out. A precarious armistice will define the political and security state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula for the foreseeable future — excluding, of course, a nuclear Armageddon caused by accidents, miscalculations or worse. The reason is simple: The U.S., China and Russia are unlikely to agree on the terms of a permanent peace settlement between the two Korean states.

Meanwhile, North Korea will reinforce its position as a credible nuclear power, with technically viable delivery vehicles for its warheads. At the same time, any further efforts to choke the North's economy with debilitating sanctions will be resisted by China and Russia.

That is a serious problem for South Korea's economy. Its long years of strong economic and technological development — in spite of a permanent crisis with estranged relatives — were made possible by rapidly growing trade and investments with the U.S. and China. All that is changing now. Seoul is caught in the middle of a sort of proxy trade and political conflicts between the U.S. and China. Washington is putting trade pressure on South Korea to make sure it toes its policy line, while Beijing keeps doing the same thing to get Seoul out of Uncle Sam's tight embrace.