The Labour party should oppose Brexit and support remain in a people’s vote because of its impact on the communities we represent. But we should also oppose Brexit because, by doing so, we maximise our chances of forming the next government.

Amid the noise of Theresa May’s final attempts to get her Brexit agreement through parliament, we are in danger of losing sight of the damage any Brexit – deal or no deal – would mean for working-class communities and Labour’s heartlands.

When we analyse the real-world impacts, this emerges as simply the most destructive set of policies ever presented to the electorate. In a general election, no party would put forward a platform of inevitable job losses, cuts to the tax take and public services, economic decline and a diminished role on the world stage. No party would present the lost opportunity of living and working in 27 other countries as a net benefit, or the loss of sovereignty and control, given our inevitable status as EU rule-takers, as a win for Britain. No party would present the added restrictions to trade, and the consequent loss of businesses, industries and jobs as a net gain. To do so would be electoral suicide.

Opposing Brexit is increasingly in the electoral interests of the Labour party. Ninety per cent of party members oppose Brexit, as do the vast majority of Labour voters. Labour leave voters are the group most likely to have moved from leave to remain as they have seen that Brexit is not in their interests.

The will of the people is now to keep the deal we have as members of the EU

Labour would gain more than a million voters and dozens of seats if it fully backed a new vote. More important than the numbers is the direction of travel. Polls consistently show a growth in the number of people saying that the Tories are doing a bad job of the negotiations, that Brexit is going to work out badly for them and their communities, and that a second vote should be held. The will of the people is now to keep the deal we have as members of the EU.

Despite May’s overtures, Labour voters are unwilling to abandon the party over concerns about its economic programme. In fact, the exact opposite is true. There is growing support for a radical programme to fix our evident problems in housing, inequality and the economy. A people’s vote campaign would give Labour the opportunity to set out our vision of a fairer Britain, and to contrast this with a Tory party divided over Europe and committed to inevitable continuing austerity as Brexit impacts took hold.

Brexit is the only issue that, if we get it wrong, has the power to cost Labour votes and the chance to gain power. Forty-seven per cent of Labour remain voters, about a third of our total voters, say that they would abandon us to stop Brexit. These voters are the only possible hope for a new centrist party; if the Labour leadership wants to kill off talk of a new party, fully opposing Brexit is essential.

Backing a people’s vote does not mean letting down leave voters. Their concerns are Labour concerns. Cuts to public services, austerity, the strain on the NHS and the rising insecurity of employment and housing are not the fault of the EU, but are choices made by this government for its own agenda. Opposing Brexit is the perfect platform from which to show that the real enemy is a failed Tory programme, and the solution not Brexit but a radical Labour government.

Given the time left, there is no real alternative. There is no time to renegotiate, even if the EU could be persuaded back to the negotiation table. A people’s vote is likely to be the only way out of a bad Brexit deal or an even worse no deal.

As a new vote becomes more likely, Labour can choose to lead the charge and reap the electoral benefit, or it can let May or a new Tory PM steal its thunder. One route leads to power; the other to irrelevance. Britain needs a way out of Brexit, and it needs a Labour government. Leading the charge for a people’s vote is the most viable – and, in all likelihood, the only – route to both.