Mesoscale Discussion 0106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020 Areas affected...southeastern PA/southern NJ into the Delmarva Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071450Z - 071615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Low-topped convection -- and potential for a couple of strong/near-severe gusts -- will continue for another 1-2 hours before diminishing/moving offshore. DISCUSSION...Bands of low-topped convection (roughly 20kft) ahead of a fast-moving cold front continue shifting across the Chesapeake Bay and adjacent southeastern PA. Lightning has diminished substantially over the past hour, in line with morning RAOBs and objective analyses showing an increasingly stable airmass with eastward extent. Still, with very strong low-level flow evident (70 kt west-southwesterly wind at 1km currently observed by KDOX WSR-88D VWP), potential for a few strong gusts will persist for the next hour or two, possibly as far northeast as central NJ where mid to upper 50s surface temperatures/dewpoints are indicated. Given the limited temporal and spatial extent of this risk area, a WW will not be issued. ..Goss/Thompson.. 02/07/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ... LAT...LON 37927562 37037593 38517635 39827592 40527541 40587506 39997450 38747553 37927562