Brexiter claims very few Tories want Theresa May to lead the party into 2022

Jacob Rees-Mogg denied that his attempt to remove Theresa May had ended in humiliation as he called on Conservative MPs to seize their chance to topple the prime minister now or face the prospect of her leading the party into the next election.

A total of 48 MPs must write to Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the backbenchers’ 1922 Committee in order to trigger a full confidence vote – 15% of the parliamentary party. But six days after May set out her EU withdrawal agreement only 26 MPs have publicly said that they have submitted a letter, leading rebels to privately concede that the move against May is likely to lie dormant until she loses a vote on the deal in parliament.

Rees-Mogg admitted that the threshold might not be reached for some time. “Patience is a virtue, virtue is a grace,” he said. “We will see what letters come in due time. Do 47 want to come with me or not? I may find that they don’t or they don’t do it today but when we get the meaningful vote. That’s a decision for them.”

Rees-Mogg, who chairs the European Research Group of Eurosceptic MPs, appeared to switch his persuasion tactic on Tuesday, a day after his allies had suggested the threshold would be reached.

Asked whether it might prove tricky to oust May in a full confidence vote given the group were struggling to secure 48 names, he said few of his colleagues wanted the prime minister to continue to lead the party into 2022.

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“Basically, if there is a vote of confidence it is not just for a year,” he said. “Getting the 48 letters has shown to be quite difficult, so the idea that in a year you just repeat the process and then she would go at that point I don’t think that is realistic.

“I think it is now or the prime minister will lead the Conservatives into the next election. You find MPs privately who will say to you they think that is a really good idea in any number and I would be quite surprised.”

The number of letters publicly submitted to Brady declaring no confidence in May reached 26 on Monday, well short of the tally needed, though Eurosceptic MPs insisted more had been submitted privately.

Overnight, critics of the prime minister did little to hide their frustration that a confidence vote had not yet been triggered. Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister and ERG member, suggested that MPs who had promised to submit letters had secretly not done so.

Rees-Mogg is understood to have met Baker on Monday night for a discussion about the group’s tactics.

Privately, Brexiter MPs who had put in letters were fuming with the so-called “old guard” of Tory Eurosceptics such as Iain Duncan Smith and Bernard Jenkins, who have so far declined to put in letters of their own.

“They are the ones invited in by Downing Street because they think they are the ones with influence, once they’re inside they get more butter than a crumpet, and then they come out and criticise the deal but they won’t act,” one said.

“Baker is a good organiser but he may have failed this time,” an MP said. “The momentum’s gone. After the meaningful vote is the next opportunity, especially if there’s a chance of her offering concessions to Labour.”

One critic said they were resigned to the prime minister carrying on through the Brexit process unless she could be ousted by the end of December.

“She would have to stay, after that it’s too late, and if you were to have any ballot of the membership, it would have to be over Christmas recess,” they said.

Rees-Mogg insisted he had not predicted that the contest would be triggered this week, and suggested more colleagues would follow if the prime minister loses the vote on her Brexit deal in parliament.

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“I made no forecast last week about when the letters will come in, we’ll just have to wait and see what people do,” he said. “I haven’t been running a count. What people do is a matter for them.”

Asked if his argument against the deal had been weakened by the failure of MPs to submit letters, he said: “It is not about the strength or weakness of the argument, it’s about whether, tactically, we think now is the time to have a vote of confidence.

“I’m not making forecasts about when letters will go in. I’ve said what I’ve said, some other people have followed, some people are doing so privately.”

Rees-Mogg denied that the events of the past few days were a humiliation. “I think this is exaggerated language, it has been something not everyone wanted to do. That’s political life. Not everyone will always agree with me.”