WASHINGTON — After 2012, Pennsylvania loses a voice in Washington, and it's likely to be a Democrat who is silenced.

The 2010 Census numbers – due out this week – will confirm Pennsylvania must relinquish a U.S. lawmaker to states that grew faster over the past decade.

The Republicans in power in Harrisburg will be tasked with redrawing the state's congressional districts. The map makers might eliminate a district outright, effectively tossing one incumbent out in 2012, or merge the seats of two incumbents, pitting one against the other. In either case, sitting Democrats will be in the crosshairs.

But the Republicans in charge of the once-a-decade process are unlikely to be as aggressive as they were in 2000, when their power grab backfired. They drew a map hoping to lock down 13 or 14 U.S. House seats (out of 19 total), only to watch in horror as a number of GOP incumbents lost in subsequent elections.

The party rebounded in the 2010 election, and now Republicans hold 12 of the Pennsylvania delegation's House seats.

Mark Holman, chief-of-staff for Gov. Tom Ridge during the last redistricting, said Republicans are very happy with the lawmakers they have in power now, and will ensure their districts are safe rather than try to pick up additional seats.

"I think given the tremendous gains … they are not going to have to be that aggressive," Holman said.

The likely outcome of the Republicans' redistricting will be to erase the southwestern 12th congressional district held by Democrat Mark Critz, who replaced the late John Murtha. The state Republicans could choose to merge his district with neighboring western Pennsylvania Democrats Jason Altmire or Mike Doyle.

Altmire, who is well aware that his name is widely spread as one at risk, said he doesn't worry about it because he has no control over the process.

Standing off the House floor in a semi-circle with Republicans Charlie Dent, of the 15th District, and Lou Barletta, of the 11th District, Altmire and his colleagues all shared a wait-and-see approach to the redistricting process. Barletta joked that his district, which includes many Democratic strongholds like Scranton, couldn't be drawn "much worse."

Holman said Barletta's district is one that will likely be redrawn to strengthen his re-election chances. Republicans also may choose to consolidate Democratic seats in the Philadelphia area, Holman said, pitting lawmakers like Allyson Schwartz, Bob Brady or Chaka Fattah against each other.

"It's a very interesting, multi-level game of chess that is played here," said Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia Democrat consultant who testified in federal court when the Democrats challenged the Republicans' 2000 redistricting plan.

The fresh Census numbers mean more than just who is sent to Capitol Hill. The population numbers also drive the flow of federal tax dollars to state and municipal governments.

"Having one less member means you have one less voice, and one less person to advocate for earmarks and other projects to flow back to the states," said Mike McDonald, a professor at George Mason University who has done research on redistricting. "It also is going to be hardwired into the funding formulas as well … a lot of grants are tied to population. Less money will be flowing into Pennsylvania than the faster growing states."

Christopher Borick, a political pollster at Muhlenberg College, said in Pennsylvania it means there will be bigger battles between localities over diminished resources.

The state has been steadily losing seats for decades. In the 1920s, Pennsylvania had 36 representatives in the 435-member House. After this latest census, it will have 18. Each state has two U.S. senators.

While Dent, who represents the Lehigh Valley, is heartened that Pennsylvania only lost one seat this go around, he said it does impact legislating. He's seen the clout of states like Arizona grow with their population.

"Pennsylvania still has a lot of clout, we're still a big state, we're still a strong state, but we're just not as dominating as we once were," Dent said. "There are more voices and stronger voices than there once were."

Ceisler called it a "diminishing influence." If the Pennsylvania delegation was a football team, he said, there's a lack of coverage. "It gives other states opportunities to outflank us," he said.

But Holman said there is reason to be optimistic about the state losing one seat, rather than two or three at a time as in decades past. He said new businesses, naming the controversial Marcellus Shale drilling industry as one, will jumpstart Pennsylvania's growth.

Over the next decade, he predicted, the state could break even.

Colby.itkowitz@mcall.com

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