VANCOUVER—Canadians are becoming increasingly polarized over issues of race and immigration, according to a new survey that suggests the divide could be a major factor in the next federal election.

The new EKOS poll is based on a relatively small sample size, but offers a snapshot of a country that is split both socially and politically.

Roughly 40 per cent of Canadians think too many immigrants entering the country are not white — and that number skyrockets among Conservative Party of Canada supporters, according to the polling.

“The key forces shifting votes away from the Liberals to Conservatives have been the issue of immigration and too many non-white immigrants,” Frank Graves told StarMetro Vancouver.

Graves is president of Ottawa-based EKOS Research Associates and has been documenting the rise of what is known as right-wing ordered or authoritarian populism. Its members are largely religious, have reservations about diversity, are deeply pessimistic about their economic future, convinced climate change matters less than their well-being and are disdainful of the “corrupt elite,” which includes media, government and academics, he says.

Sixty-nine per cent of poll respondents answered “too many” to the question of “Forgetting about the overall number of immigrants coming to Canada, of those who come, would you say there are too few, too many or the right amount who are members of visible minorities?”

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Regionally, the response of “too many” was highest in Saskatchewan, Alberta, Ontario and Manitoba, respectively. The two questions on immigration are part of a long-term tracking program EKOS has conducted since 1993.

The shift points to a rise of ordered populism, as seen in the U.K. and U.S., Graves says.

Notably, opposition to immigration and non-white immigration has not seen a dramatic increase over the past several years. As the poll notes, results should be interpreted with caution, given the sample size of 507, with a margin of error of +/-4.4, 19 times out of 20.

What is striking and pronounced is the level of partisan polarization on the issue, Graves said.

In 2013 when asked the same question, 47 per cent of Conservatives compared to 34 per cent of Liberal voters answered “too many.” But this year, there’s a “yawning divide” representing a near 450 per cent jump between the two parties in just six years, Graves said.

Now, just 15 per cent of Liberals respond that there are too many non-white immigrants compared to the 69 per cent of Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives.

“The challenge for Scheer is how to do the delicate dance and not lose what is over half their base right now,” Graves said.

He said the Conservative party of today has shifted away from its status-quo conservatism that believes in smaller governments and free markets and instead pivoted to an ordered populist or “drawbridge up” thinking.

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“It’s not that all Conservative supporters have changed their views. Some may have changed their outlook, but this is also new people in the party,” Graves said. “Status-quo conservatism still exists, but its being dwarfed by this new group of authoritarian populism.”

Looming beneath the manifestations of these attitudes is economic anxiety and a magnified sense that the external world is newly threatening.

While most Western societies saw sharp, steady declines in levels of racial intolerance following the Second World War, Graves said we are now seeing a resurgence.

He said that more and more, there is less common ground in what we consider to be Canadian values, which, unlike politics, change at a very slow pace. Graves said there are two “incommensurable” Canadas, leaving a deep chasm in society split among those in the “ordered” and those in the “open” camp, who favour diversity, trade and globalization, climate change policy while being optimistic about the future.

Populist anti-refugee and anti-immigrant rhetoric emerged in the recent Burnaby South byelection, where the newly minted People’s Party of Canada candidate appealed to prevalent anxieties in the riding about public safety as she repeatedly brought up the murder of a 13-year-old girl. A Syrian refugee has been charged.

Despite common assumptions that the populist camp is dominated by disaffected white males, the PPC supporters in Burnaby South were composed of a majority of Chinese-Canadians.

Scheer last week denounced anyone who “promotes white nationalism, promotes any type of extremism.” He was responding to a question about Quebec Conservative Sen. Leo Housakos, who suggested the day before that white supremacy is not a significant threat to Canada’s way of life, communities or democracy.

In the past, Scheer has been criticized for his handling of alleged white supremacists, after addressing the United We Roll convoy — a “Yellow Vest” movement that mixed pro-pipeline and anti-immigration stances — along with Faith Goldy, a former Rebel television personality with white nationalist ties who has vocally pushed an anti-immigration message on social media.

For Graves, the way the debate has evolved in Canada is not leading to constructive resolutions. Despite the malignant expressions of ordered populism, he said, people are drawn to these views for some legitimate reasons, such as economic despair.

“We end up putting emotional fuel on the fire of those who feel this way and denies the reality of their suffering of identity loss and a much less comfortable or privileged position in society than in the past,” he said.

— With files from Alex Boutilier

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