By Stephen Stirling | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

New Jersey is in the midst of a dramatic population shift, the inverse of the outward sprawl that has dominated the state for the last several decades.

The large population swings mean parts of the state are seeing decline not seen in more than 20 years. Today, we take a look at what towns are seeing the starkest losses.

While there are some familiar cameos from towns on our list last year, the new data show significant population movement in other parts of the state, some that have upended municipal demographics entirely. Also, be sure to check out the 20 fastest-growing towns in New Jersey.

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A shift towards the city

With each passing year since the Great Recession, the population trend in New Jersey becomes more clear. During the last decade, counties like Sussex and Warren — once the fastest growing in New Jersey — are now shrinking. Conversely, the suburbs surrounding New York City are booming.

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Sprawl withdrawal

A closer look shows that the outer-ring suburbs that saw explosive growth in the 1980s and 1990s are now in decline more residents move toward New York and Philadelphia.

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Permanent Jersey Shore residents are an endangered species

Shore towns dominate our top 20 list. A combination of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and a longtime trend of shore residents being replaced by second-homeowners is primarily to blame.

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How we did it

For our top 20s, we looked at population growth and decline in two ways — raw change and percent change.

Each tells a different story. Growth and decline in competing New Jersey cities can better be measured in raw totals while population shifts in smaller communities is best measured using percent change.

Towns with a margin of error of more than 15% were excluded from analysis.

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10. Vernon

Vernon was actually #1 on our list last year, but only drops because other towns have outpaced them. Poor access to public transit and long commute times to New York City are among the drawbacks of this Sussex County town.

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9. Margate City

Like other towns in the immediate vicinity of Atlantic City, Margate City has suffered due to the slow crumbling of the casino industry, which employ many residents in the area.

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Stephen Stirling | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

8. Camden

Long plagued by crime and poverty, Camden has been losing population for years. While significant investment has taken place in hopes of revitalizing the once thriving manufacturing hub, they have yet to show any significant impact.

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7. Irvington

Unlike neighboring Newark, undergoing its first growth in half a century, Irvington has been bleeding population for the better part of the last decade. Data show homeowners here pay a larger percent of their income towards property taxes than most in the state.

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6. Brick

Brick was among the hardest hit communities by Hurricane Sandy, so it would not be surprising if most of their losses came from their beach and bay communities. Up and down the coast, more longtime residents are selling their homes to seasonal residents amid a booming real estate market, depleting permanent population along the coast.

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5. Brigantine

This northern neighbor of Atlantic City has suffered from the regional economic hub's struggles. As casino jobs dry up, residents once employed by the industry are leaving in considerable numbers.

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4. Ocean City

Ocean City, a popular resort community, may be hit by two factors. First, the longtime dwindling of permanent residents along the Jersey Shore. Second, the economic hardship of nearby Atlantic City sapping jobs from the region.

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3. Willingboro

The Gloucester, Burlington and Camden county regions are something of a mish-mash. Some towns, like Woolwich in Gloucester County, are seeing explosive growth. Others, like Willingboro in Burlington, are experiencing just the opposite.

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2. Washington, Gloucester County

Washington saw explosive development in the 1980s and 1990s as suburbia boomed around New Jersey. Like its neighbors to the north, the community is experiencing a pinch as homebuyers gravitate toward city environments.

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1. Toms River

No town took a larger swipe from Hurricane Sandy than Toms River, and it's impacts are still showing. Scores of homes were leveled or damaged during the storm and the town lost billions to its tax base. It's population figures before and after the storm show this impact in full.

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10. Alpine

If there's any credence to be leant to the theory that millionaires are fleeing New Jersey, Alpine's population shift may provide some evidence. Long known as one of the richest towns in New Jersey, it has lost a sizable chunk of its population since the recession.

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9. Lavallette

Surrounded by Sandy-battered Toms River, Lavalette has many of the same issues affecting it since the recession. After effects of the storm remain up and down the coast, and the shift toward the second home population up and down the coast loom large over beachfront communities like Lavallette.

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8. Ocean City

Ocean City is one of the few towns on both of our lists. Its decline is inline with that of other shore towns in New Jersey, with the added detriment of its proximity to flailing Atlantic City, a regional job hub.

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7. Margate City

Margate City is one of many examples on this list of how the decline of a regional job center (Atlantic City) can have impacts that stretch beyond its borders.

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Stephen Stirling | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

6. Brigantine

See #7 and #8. Pivot north a bit and you've got Brigantine.

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5. Surf City

Surf City appears on this list because it doesn't have much permanent population to lose. With the popularity of second-homes booming at the shore, it doesn't take much to have an impact in a sea-bound community like Surf City.

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4. Ship Bottom

Located just south of #5 on the percent-change list, Ship Bottom has seen its population dip for the same reasons.

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3. Hampton

Hunterdon County is one of the northern New Jersey counties that has seen its population stagnate in recent years. A lack of public transportation and a long commute to New York City and most other regional job hubs has made it less attractive to home-buyers in recent years.

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2. Sea Isle City

Towns with more beachfront property are more likely to be prone to the population sapping seasonal homebuyer market. Sea Isle City has one of the longest stretches of shorefront property in the state — likely a reason it places high on this list.

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Stephen Stirling | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

1. Beach Haven

Beach Haven may be the most secluded section of Long Beach Island, located on its southern tip north of Atlantic City. While it's no less of a seasonal draw, the Jersey Shore remains as popular as ever, its permanent population has dwindled considerably since the recession.

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The 20 fastest growing towns in New Jersey

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