The recent shutdown debacle had a large effect on the net favorability for Republicans, bringing their numbers to levels far worse than Gingrich's shutdown did and even worse than what we saw with the Clinton impeachment circus. We might expect this to be a temporary dip followed by a recovery over the next six months or so (although it is possible it could be more enduring as in the post-2004 slide). Indeed, over the past two months, we have seen a slight recovery already that the trendline is not sensitive enough to pick up, as net favorability increased by an average of about three points from October to December in polls from the same pollster. (Please note the most recent data available when I collected the data were from the beginning of December.)

One might be forgiven for thinking that Democrats suffered their own calamity of popularity during the month of November based on the media coverage. However, that just isn't the case. In a mirror image of Republicans, Democrats suffered a small decline in net favorability, by an average of just three points from October to December in polls from the same pollster. Democratic favorability did, however, decline in the late summer and early fall as well. This leaves Democrats with a net favorability somewhere around 15-25 points greater than Republicans, just like at the beginning of 2013. This is a far better position than Democrats found themselves in at the beginning of 2010, when Democrats had a net favorability only about five points higher than Republicans. Not only that, but the Tea Party is no longer a bright, shiny plaything for the media to gush over; rather, it is about as tarnished as the Republican Party itself.

Data for Democrats, the Democratic Favorability Advantage, the Tea Party, and some comments below the fold.