Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals would win another minority government if an election were held now, a new poll has found.

In her first three weeks in office, Wynne has brought the Liberals back into a tie with Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and a statistical dead heat with Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats.

The Liberals and the Tories are each at 32 per cent while the NDP is at 29 per cent and the Greens are at 5 per cent, according to the Forum Research survey.

“It’s putting the opposition on the spot, because (Wynne) seems to be gaining strength,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Monday.

“She’s off to a good start, there’s no way around it,” he said, noting the Liberals languished in third place for much of the past year under former premier Dalton McGuinty.

Because of voter concentration, Bozinoff said such results would likely translate into a Liberal minority government with a tally identical to the October 2011 election.

Forum estimates the Liberals would again win 53 seats in the 107-member house with the Tories taking 36, down from 37 in the most recent election and the NDP with 18, up from 17 in that vote.

“You can see in the poll how efficient the Liberal vote is. The NDP’s vote is really inefficient — it’s all heavily piled in downtown areas so it’s hard for them,” the pollster said, adding the Conservatives must improve their standing in and around Toronto to win.

“The Tories are not making traction in the 905 . . . and the 416 is just a writeoff for them. They’ve got their work cut out for them.”

Forum’s interactive voice-response phone poll of 2,773 people was conducted between last Wednesday and Friday and is considered accurate to within two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In terms of personal approval, Horwath was at 44 per cent with 25 per cent disapproval and 31 per cent with no opinion; Wynne was at 34 per cent approval, 32 per cent disapproval, and 34 per cent unsure; and Hudak was at 24 per cent approval, 51 per cent disapproval, and 25 per cent uncertain.

Bozinoff noted the New Democrats have tapped into one possible election-winning issue: reducing auto insurance premiums by 15 per cent.

Last Friday, Forum polled 1,033 people and found 58 per cent supported Horwath’s plan to trigger a vote if Wynne does not move to cut rates. Less than a third — 33 per cent — disapprove of the NDP threat and 11 per cent didn’t know.

That result is considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20, due to the smaller sample size.

“Horwath . . . has clearly struck a chord,” said Bozinoff, cautioning that whichever leader sparks the election would be “blamed” by the public for causing a $92-million vote less than 18 months after the last one.

“You’ve got to be careful — everyone remembers Peterson,” he said, referring to former Liberal premier David Peterson’s ill-advised early election call in 1990 that cost him power.

In Friday’s poll, Forum also found 56 per cent want a public inquiry into the Liberals’ politically motivated cancellation of gas plants in Mississauga and Oakville with 26 per cent disagreeing and 18 per cent unsure.

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As well, 46 per cent support the teachers in their dispute with Queen’s Park compared with 40 per cent backing the government and 12 per cent endorsing neither and 2 per cent not knowing.

But 73 per cent hailed as “satisfactory” the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation’s deal with Wynne to return to doing voluntary extracurricular activities. Only 18 per cent weren’t satisfied and 9 per cent unsure.

Conversely, 62 per cent are unsatisfied with the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario’s decision to keep withholding clubs and sports from students. Just 30 per cent are satisfied with ETFO’s ongoing protest against Liberals’ freeze of wages and rollback of perks like bankable sick days.

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