Surprise move not to stand for a second term in upcoming presidential election throws selection of a Socialist candidate wide open

François Hollande, the least popular French president since the second world war, has announced he will not run for a second term in office.

With a satisfaction rating so low it recently dropped to just 4%, the Socialist president appeared shaken and emotional as he said in a live televised address from the Élysée palace that he would not attempt to run for a second term, conscious of the “risks” to the French left if he did so.

“Today I am aware of the risks that going down a route that would not gather sufficient support would entail, so I have decided not to be a candidate in the presidential election,” a sombre-looking Hollande said.

He said his only concern was “the superior interest of this country” and that he could not stand for “the break-up of the left”. He said his time in power had taught him “humility”.

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He is the first French president since the war not to attempt to run for re-election.

François Fillon, the right’s presidential candidate and the favourite to win next spring, said Hollande had “admitted with lucidity that his obvious failure stopped him going any further”. Fillon, who last week called Hollande’s presidency “pathetic”, said Hollande’s presidency was ending in a “political shambles”.

Hollande’s decision leaves the way open for a bitter Socialist primary race in January to decide who will run in his place. Manuel Valls, the ambitious prime minister who is a tough law-and-order voice and pro-business reformist on the right of the party, could now decide to run to become the Socialist candidate.

If he does run, Valls will face opposition from several former government ministers who are part of a leftwing rebel movement, including the ambitious former economy minister Arnaud Montebourg, who is fiercely critical of Hollande’s pro-business line.

Hollande’s popularity slumped right from the start of his presidency in 2012. He beat the rightwing Nicolas Sarkozy after a classic leftwing campaign in which he targeted big business and pledged to raise taxes for high earners.

He began his presidency with a leftist programme that included a wealth super-tax of 75% on top earners but he shifted course midway through his term.

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Grassroots supporters were further alienated by a pro-business switch in 2014, a wavering over security reforms, and labour laws that brought thousands out onto the streets in protests early this year.

Hollande was accused of a lack of preparation, zigzagging on policy and being unable to keep a lid on his government’s internal feuding on how to address the economy. His initial attempt to style himself as a “normal president” – paying no heed to the superficial trappings of office – backfired and endeared him even less to the electorate.

Accused of lacking authority and coherence, dithering over policy decisions from tax increases to pro-business reform, failing to kickstart the sluggish economy and failing to protect France from a series of devastating terrorist attacks, he was eventually abandoned by his own core of Socialist party voters who felt betrayed by his muddled, stop-start pro-business reforms.

One recent poll by Odoxa put him at only 7.5% in the first round of the presidential race, behind the right’s Fillon, the far-right Marine Le Pen, his former economy minister and maverick independent candidate Emmanuel Macron, and the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

In his televised address, Hollande said he felt he had achieved many changes for France in his time in office, including introducing same-sex marriage and beginning to lower France’s stubbornly high jobless figures after decades of mass unemployment.

But he admitted that the drop in the number of unemployed had come too late and “unemployment is still too high”.

Hollande said he was pleased he had led France to intervene against Islamists in Mali, in west Africa. He said his biggest regret came after the Paris terrorist attacks of November 2015 when he planned to strip French citizenship from dual-nationality citizens convicted of terrorism. The plan caused havoc and division on the left and right, and Hollande was forced to abandon it.

Hollande’s complicated personal life in office only served to reinforce his image as indecisive and distracted. In January 2014 he was photographed by paparazzi going by scooter to a flat near the Élysée where he was conducting an affair with actor Julie Gayet.

His partner, the political journalist Valérie Trierweiler, then wrote a tell-all book about their tumultuous relationship, in which she described their relationship breakdown in excruciating detail and, most seriously, accused Hollande of mocking poor people as “toothless”. The fallout was disastrous for his image.

A recent 600-page book, A President Shouldn’t Say That, in which Hollande shocked even those in his close circle by regularly confiding in two journalists with the private details of his presidency and personal life – including openly discussing state secrets such as details of plans for an airstrike on Syria in 2013, or paying ransom for abducted French journalists – served to damage him further.

More than any other French president, Hollande attempted to play the transparency card, confiding in journalists and inviting documentary crews into the Elysée, yet there was a communication gap in which he was never able to build a relationship with the French people in which they understood his goals and felt he understood them.

Hollande’s family, including his ex-partner and mother of his children, Ségolène Royal, a government minister, is said to have advised him not to stand again and risk being humiliated.

The French presidential election takes place next April and May.