Warm Christmas forecast

With daytime temperatures running far above normal this month, is there any chance of colder air sweeping into New Jersey before Christmas?

(Len Melisurgo | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)

If you happen to have a new winter coat or a snow blower on your Christmas list this year, you probably won't need to use those gifts for quite a while.

Some long-range weather forecast models are predicting a balmy Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in New Jersey, with temperatures soaring into the 60s -- about 20 degrees above normal.

AccuWeather is predicting a spring-like high of 65 on Dec. 24, with possible rain or drizzle, and a pleasant high of 63 on Dec. 25 for Newark, with sunny skies. The Weather Channel is projecting a high of 67 and 61 for those two days, with a 60 percent chance of rain showers on Christmas Eve and partly cloudy skies on Christmas Day. (These forecasts were updated in this post Wednesday night, Dec. 16)

The National Weather Service says it's still too early to put solid numbers on its Christmas forecast, but there's a "90 percent probability of above-average temperatures," said Lance Franck, a meteorologist at the weather service office in Mount Holly.

Does that mean there's absolutely no shot of a white Christmas?

"It's just too far out for us to really know," Franck said. "We just don't know at this point."

Even though temperatures have been running far above normal throughout this month, Franck noted there's always a possibility of colder air sweeping in for a couple of days, as will be the case this weekend.

In fact, there's a slight chance of light snow showers Friday night, as the temperature drops into the low 30s across much of the Garden State, Franck said. But no accumulation is expected.

The chilly weekend temperatures are expected to be followed by another warm spell, with temperatures heading back into the 50s and 60s next week.

For all those dreamers out there, the historic probability of a white Christmas in New Jersey during any given year is 20 percent for the northern and central regions and 10 percent or less for southern counties.

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.