This would be a catastrophe for the Liberal Party. Yet the craziness of this year tells any observer that the scenario is not impossible, especially when history shows that major parties can and do splinter – as the Liberals themselves did in South Australia in the 1970s. There is no perfect answer for any political party debating its direction. What is so debilitating for the Liberals is the constant argument that saps the party’s energy in disputes about climate change, the treatment of women, religious freedom, gay rights and more. Liberal MP Julia Banks was an outsider to the party before the last election. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen It is telling that social issues have so much power to divide the party when its message to Australians is that it stands for stable government and careful economic management. In the language of its leaders, the Liberal Party assures voters that its priority is a stronger economy. In the bickering of its backbenchers and sometimes ministers, the party tells voters it is more concerned about abortion, or what students are taught about sexuality in state schools, or whether schools can sack gay teachers, or who is allowed to get married.

Liberals are free, of course, to crusade on their social agenda in Parliament but they cannot complain if voters laugh at them next May when they claim they have spent the past three years totally focused on economic management and national security. Any Liberal who believed in the legacy of Robert Menzies would have heeded a warning from an MP like Julia Banks to adjust to the modern world. Illustration: Simon Letch Credit: Her departure for the crossbench was decided before the Victorian election but, like the loss of votes in safe Liberal seats in comfortable parts of Melbourne, her decision should be ringing alarms in party branches. Banks was an outsider to the party before the last election and won the Melbourne seat of Chisholm from Labor. She came from a modest Greek background, had an impressive career as a corporate lawyer and raised a family.

She embodied the Liberal base – family values, professional, pro-business. Yet the party machine in Victoria treated her as a pariah for damning the leadership spill in August, calling out bullying and wanting a fair go for women. One woman who has worked for years for Liberal governments now looks at the party and wonders out loud: “When did I stop being the base?” Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video Scott Morrison leads this party but cannot solve all its problems. Turning every argument into a test for the leader will only weaken the leader. Could he have stopped Banks from leaving? Probably not. Can he stop infighting between conservatives and moderates? Probably not. The vendettas from the spill against Tony Abbott and the poison from the spill against Malcolm Turnbull have worn the Liberals down to a point of exhaustion – unable to face more than a few weeks of Parliament next year before the election is held.

The blame game over Banks is another example of the toxic culture. Liberals who blame Turnbull for all their woes conveniently forget all the time Abbott spent bagging the government in speeches and in the media. Those who condemn Banks for leaving the Liberals still cosy up to Cory Bernardi, who deserted the party less than two years ago. In some ways the Liberal Party is still recovering, badly, from the vote on same sex marriage. The fatal error in 2015 was to reject a conscience vote and bind all members on an issue that was a matter of religion for some and equality for others. The pressure caused lasting fractures; the lesson is to allow more freedom on matters of personal belief. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy concedes defeat in the Victorian election. Credit:Chris Hopkins John Howard, who knew how to use conscience votes as a safety valve, was calmly rational about the government’s problems this week. He dismissed the idea of a split and reminded everyone that the Liberals prosper when they accept they are a broad church. He noted, with history on his side, that a state election defeat does not mean a federal one will follow. In his interview on the ABC’s 7.30 program, he kept his focus on the government’s strong suit, the economy, rather than the social questions that divide the party. Australia has a growing economy and low unemployment. The asylum seeker boat arrivals have stopped. The budget appears to be heading back into surplus. Bill Shorten is a more formidable opponent than the Liberals admit but if the Liberals cannot win the next federal election it will be entirely because of their own self-indulgence.

“I am sick of being lectured to by people who aren’t members of the party, by people who have never stood on polling booths, about what it means to be a real Liberal,” said Scott Ryan, the Senate president, on Radio National this week. Loading “I want to cast the net wide in the Menzies and Howard traditions to give people a reason to be Liberals, not come up with litmus tests and say ‘if you don’t hold this view on a social issue’ or ‘if you don’t hold this particular view on climate change or renewable energy’ that somehow you’re not a real Liberal. That is not the path to electoral success.” Those are measured and sensible words, if only the ideologues would heed them. If they dream instead of renewal through fire, they may find their phoenix turns out to be a headless chook. David Crowe is Chief Political Correspondent.

