Is #Leafs Phaneuf worth 50M over 7 yrs? I'm hearing bar has been set in talks and that's where it starts. More on HC@ noon+ @Sportsnet 2nite

— Nick Kypreos (@RealKyper) October 29, 2013

—Brooks Orpik, Stephane Robidas, Kimmo Timonen

, Dan Boyle—or limited offensive upside

—Dan Girardi. Plus, despite the influx of young defencemen in the Leafs' system, none are ready to step up and take over Phaneuf's minutes.

After signingto a franchise record 8-year, $64 million contract to start the season, the next most important item for Dave Nonis is deciding what to do with. If he decides to sign the soon-to-be free agent, it won't be cheap. Pierre Lebrun said he doesn't think "the Leafs are comfortable going north of $7 million." As for term, Lebrun added, "I would suspect that Newport Sports Management would start at eight years and that the Leafs would be more comfortable at six."So Kypreos' tweet is largely confirmed, although it sounds more like "where it starts" would apply more so if Phaneuf made it to free agency without a contract, because if the Leafs aren't comfortable going north of $7 million and much longer than six years, then $50 million over seven years is more of a starting point for Phaneuf's camp, not Toronto's. Ultimately, $7 million a year over seven years probably sounds about right.There's definitely some sticker shock to giving Phaneuf a $500,000 raise per season, just like some balked at the $8 million figure Kessel received. Many who will take issue with Phaneuf getting a deal of this size will point out that only four defencemen make $7 million or more—, Ryan Suter,, and, probably the best defenceman of this generation, doesn't even make $7 million a season.Referencing these contracts without any context isn't a fair comparison, however. Simply comparing cap hits doesn't take into account UFA/RFA status, a player's age, how large the salary cap was in the year in which the deal was signed, and whether teams were still able to circumvent the cap. As I previously showed with Kessel's contract, those factors can make a huge difference in a player's cap hit When you adjust for all these factors, Phaneuf's $7 million figure is nowhere close to the top earners. Below is a chart with the salaries for the defencemen with the largest adjusted cap hit. The cap hits for Chara,, andare based on the contracts they signed when they first hit free agency, and when they were closer in age to Phaneuf is now.Considering contextual factors, Phaneuf's cap hit would actually be the 14th highest cap among defencemen, not the fifth. Because of salary inflation, $7 million doesn't buy you what it used to.ESPN.com ranked Phaneuf in a tie for the 17th best defenceman in the NHL this summer, and although I might put him higher than one or two guys (namely, Keith Yandle), that's a pretty fair rating. He's a No. 1 defenceman , but an average one. So a $7 million cap hit would be perfectly fair for Phaneuf. Repeat, $7 million doesn't buy what it used to. Not when the salary cap has gone up; not when a player is hitting unrestricted free agency; and not when teams are unable to circumvent the cap.And for the Leafs, there really isn't another option. Phaneuf handles the toughest defensive assignments for the Leafs, matching up against the opposition's top line on a nightly basis. In fact, so far this young season no defenceman has matched up as consistently against strong competition than Phaneuf, much like last season.Phaneuf is also one of the rare defencemen who logs huge minutes on both the power play and penalty kill. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the only other defenceman logging at least 3:30 on both special teams units There aren't any real options to replace him if Nonis decides $7 million is too rich. The only potential replacements in free agency are flawed, either because of agePhaneuf may not be perfect, but the Leafs really can't afford to lose him.