On a cold December night, I’m standing in a pitch-dark lava field in Iceland, with dozens of strangers, searching the sky for the aurora borealis — the northern lights. Occasionally, the quiet is disturbed by the arrival of another busload of similarly doomed tourists.

I’ve already figured it out. No matter how long we stand there, we won’t be seeing them tonight. It’s too cloudy.

The next night, we take a northern lights boat ride, with no luck. After six days, we leave Iceland, without ever spotting the aurora borealis.

The northern lights illuminate the night sky over Iceland's impressive landscape in this composite photo. (Wei-Shen Chin / Special Contributor)

As our tour guide explained, an expedition to see the lights is a little like a fishing trip. Sometimes the fish don’t bite, and sometimes the lights aren’t visible.

Northern lights packages and tours abound in Iceland, one of the best places on Earth to see the lights. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees.

But some people do have success. My trip was inspired, in part, by stunning photos posted on Facebook by a college buddy of mine, Wei-Shen Chin, now a radiologist in Orlando. I asked him for his advice. The short answer: Do your research. Be patient. Get a little lucky.

“The northern lights are a natural phenomenon, so you need to stack things in your favor to increase the chances of seeing them,” Wei-Shen advised.

The aurora borealis occurs when gaseous particles in the Earth's atmosphere collide with charged particles released from the sun's atmosphere. In the northern hemisphere, the lights are visible within the auroral oval — a ring-shaped belt above the Earth’s geomagnetic North Pole. Iceland is right inside that oval, so it’s a prime place to spot the lights as well as a visitor-friendly destination. (It was also easily reached by folks from Dallas-Fort Worth until March 6, when Icelandair discontinued its nonstop service from DFW Airport to Reykjavik. But connecting flights are still fairly reasonable.)

In Iceland, the aurora borealis is typically visible from the end of August until the middle of April. (Wei-Shen Chin / Special Contributor)

To get a good glimpse of the lights, you need these three things:

Solar activity: You can track the levels of solar activity by way of the Icelandic Met Office's website. The forecast is on a 9-point scale; a score of 2-3 or higher means you have a decent chance of seeing something.

Solid darkness: In Iceland, the aurora borealis is visible from the end of August until the middle of April. Although the lights are occasionally visible in Reykjavik, your best shot is away from light pollution.

Sky clarity: A simple rule: No clear sky equals no northern lights. That was the spoiler for us; it was rainy and cloudy our entire stay.

When Wei-Shen visited Iceland in March 2017, he first tried a bus tour out of Reykjavik; it was too cloudy. The next night, however, the skies cleared, and he took no chances. He headed out to the countryside, scoped out a viewing spot in the afternoon, and then prepared to stay up all night. Mother Nature treated him to a spectacular show.

Photographers try to capture the brilliant color of the northern lights at the Jökulsárlón glacial lagoon in southeastern Iceland. (Promote Iceland)

“The color and brilliance took my breath away,” he said.

Wei-shen’s advice: “Rent a four-wheel-drive car. Keep the fuel tank full. Watch the aurora forecast, and get ready to chase the lights outside of Reykjavik if they should appear.”

That said, if Mother Nature is cooperating, I wouldn't rule out the boat, bus and van tours offered out of Reykjavik. They're reasonably priced, well-organized and take you out far enough for a decent view. (Pro tip: Check out the Ultimate Guide to Northern Lights Tours in Iceland at I Heart Reykjavik, an excellent rundown of the pros and cons of each tour option.)

Even if you don't see the northern lights, you can still float in the Blue Lagoon, a geothermal spa that is one of the most-visited attractions in Iceland. (Jabin Botsford / The Washington Post)

Finally, a last word of advice: Don’t go to Iceland just for the northern lights. Our trip was far from a bust. We enjoyed local Christmas festivities and treats, ate lots of Icelandic fish and chips, and took the obligatory dip at the Blue Lagoon. When all else failed, we snapped a shot in front of the Aurora Reykjavik museum’s northern lights selfie wall.

And on the plane, not far from Iceland, the flight attendant tapped us on the shoulders and beckoned to a window. There they were: a vast line of northern lights, lighting up the entire horizon. Through a tiny airplane window, they weren’t as colorful or dramatic as I’d dreamed, but still, a thrill to behold.

So, I’m checking “northern lights” off my bucket list, if only in pencil, with the hope that someday I’ll get another chance.

Mary Jacobs is a Plano-based freelance writer.