Trade Minister Andrew Robb. Credit:Andrew Meares It was widely reported that the minister had got no more than six hours' sleep during the two and a half day diplomatic crescendo – his key negotiators "half that". At home, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hailed the TPP a "gigantic foundation stone" for the economy. The deal lowers remaining trade barriers in a dozen markets - five of which are among Australia's top 10 trading partners. Exports of services to the Pacific rim countries are worth $20 billion a year and agricultural exports another $15 billion. The government says that will grow as a result of the TPP. Even before TPP, Robb had been lauded for his performance as Trade Minister. He has locked in three separate free trade agreements (Korea, Japan and China) since December 2014.

His name appearing on a reshuffle hit list of ministers considered past their use-by dates – believed to have been leaked from Tony Abbott's office - was one of the key moments that precipitated the move on Tony Abbott. Robb's relationship with the National Party has remained amicable as the trade deals continue to be announced – even if his intentions as the driest of the Liberal economic dries cause some suspicion in Nats' ranks. "Robb would happily sell off half of NSW to the Chinese if there was a strong economic case for it," remarks a Nationals source. But some of the most effusive praise for Robb this week came from his pre-politics employer, the National Farmers' Federation. Specifically, she says Robb has focused on delivering for farmers over other sectors of the economy, including the one million-odd people who still work in manufacturing in Australia.

Having grown up on a dairy farm north of Melbourne, he spent years working as an animal health officer and agricultural economist for the NFF. He was the NFF's executive director when he was poached to lead the federal Liberal Party machine in 1990. Moments after the TPP was signed, the minister's phone beeped with a text message. It began: "I am proud to be Australian today …". The text was from NFF president Finlay who had been one of the privileged group of stakeholders allowed to ride shotgun with the government's team of negotiators during the secret TPP process. Finlay says Robb should be praised for leading the hold out countries against US intentions to increase market exclusivity over biologic drugs from five years to 12 while still managing to deliver most of what farmers had wanted – with the one disappointment over access to the lucrative US sugar market. "The US wanted to do a deal but they also wanted everyone to come to their position. Andrew Robb should be given the utmost respect for his part," says Finlay.

The language of Turnbull, Robb and Finlay would suggest that Australia reached a finishing line in Atlanta when the TPP deal was done, adding to the three Asian FTAs signed on Robb's watch. But for those whose business it is to look back as well as forward at trade deals, the trumpeted benefits of the TPP and Japan. Korea and China agreements are considered in no way proven just yet. The University of Sydney's Patricia Ranald has spent 20 years studying international trade deals. She believes the jobs and economic dividends promised have in the past failed to materialise and the public is not aware of the trade-offs involved. Specifically, she says Robb has focused on delivering for farmers over other sectors of the economy, including the one million-odd people who still work in manufacturing in Australia. "He comes from the sector. He has a background in agriculture and he pays particular attention to it," she tells Fairfax Media.

"But it's not just the minister. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has a history of prioritising market access for agriculture as one of their aims for all trade agreements. It could be argued that the department in general has been prepared to make deals that give benefits to farmers as a priority." The key benefits of the Korean and Japan FTAs were reduced agricultural tariffs to open up markets for Australian beef and dairy producers. Dr Ranald points to Joe Hockey's words in a radio interview last December when he linked the government's tough stance on financial assistance to the Australian automotive industry to the success in signing off on FTAs with those car-making nations. "There would not have been any free-trade agreements if we hadn't made the hard decisions about industry assistance," the former treasurer had said. But there is also strong evidence that even when picking winners – as Dr Ranald says Robb has done – results are not guaranteed.

In a review of Australia's agricultural and food manufacturing exports since past free trade agreements were signed with the US, New Zealand and Thailand, a Queensland academic found the nation's trade position had deteriorated with all three countries. Queensland University of Technology senior lecturer Mark McGovern noted a "persistent and generally worsening deficit on food products in 2014" with New Zealand and "generally narrowing surplus" with the US. Another 2015 study by Shiro Armstrong of the Australian National University's Australia – Japan Research Centre to mark 10 years since the US FTA was signed found little tangible benefit. "The evidence from a large panel dataset using the gravity model of trade deployed by the Productivity Commission suggests that Australian and US trade with the rest of the world fell," he found. Armstrong's report paid particular attention to forecasts made at the time that the US FTA would deliver billions of dollars in economic benefit.

The forecasts were prepared by the Centre for International Economics. At the time, economist Ross Garnaut famously remarked they did "not pass the laugh test". The CIE was retained by the government to investigate the combined potential of the three Asian FTAs signed by Robb. It forecast a boost to GDP of nearly $25 billion between 2016 and 2035 and the addition of 5400 new jobs. It's findings were met with similar scepticism among trade pact researchers. Dr Ranald said the claims of jobs creation should be viewed in context of China's priorities in signing up to the landmark FTA with Australia – the deal known as "the monster" inside the NFF. "China really wanted to expand the pathways for its workers to come to Australia, particularly to work on IFAs [Investment Facilitation Agreements where a Chinese company investing in a project worth more than $150 million can import its workforce]," she says.

Research revealed by Fairfax Media this week found a danger that what Robb has signed up to in the China FTA could result in the Turnbull Government "effectively surrendering autonomy over its migration laws" and inviting a wave of Chinese workers into Australia, driving down local wages and conditions. Robb has angrily rejected the findings of Dr Joanna Howe a senior law lecturer at Adelaide University and Rhodes Scholar who has advised the Coalition government on its temporary worker 457 visa program, saying her research is flawed because it was sponsored by a union. Despite maintaining that the China FTA does not sacrifice Australian jobs, Mr Robb's office has had initial discussions with Labor to find a possible compromise that would mandate labour market testing before workers can be imported. As with the US FTA, the results of Robb's legacy-making deals will not be known for some years – most likely after he has retired from politics.