Tom Parkins discusses how the decline of the middle class under the provincial Liberal governments, as well as the federal Conservative and Liberal governments, is impacting the Ontario election. However, so far the main beneficiary has been Doug Ford.

An expanding working class may have dealt the final blow to the Kathleen Wynne Liberals, whose support has now become concentrated among upper class Ontarians and a shrinking middle class.

For now, Doug Ford’s PCs hold a strong hand with working class voters—nearly double the support of either the Liberals or NDP. If Ford can sustain his working class support until June 7, he will sweep to a majority government. So far, the lone card back is NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, who needs to make an impact with working class voters if she is to block a Ford majority. ...

EKOS’ most recent results show the Wynne Liberals lead only among upper class Ontarians. Support drops by half with working class voters then by a third among poor voters. Liberals may not know it—and probably don’t understand why— but they are the party of class privilege. ...

Over the past 15 years, while the Liberals were in power, middle class membership fell dramatically, according to EKOS research. In 2002, 67 per cent of Canadians considered themselves middle class. Even in 2010, it was holding on at 60 per cent. But by 2013—in just three years—only 48 per cent of Canadians called themselves middle class, a level that has stayed roughly the same since. And as the middle class shrunk, working class membership grew from 23 per cent to 31 per cent of Canadians. Poor Canadians grew from 5 per cent to 12 per cent. The number of poor and working class voters is now almost as large as the middle class. ...

So, as companies have moved toward contract employment with no benefits or pensions—and certainly no unions—millions have fallen out of the middle class. Or perhaps even out of the working class. And at the same time, there’s been as massive run-up in the cost of rents, housing, child care, car insurance, electricity and tuition—costs the Liberals either ignored or caused. Those higher costs might be manageable for more affluent voters who own stocks and real estate, which have also boomed over the past decade. But for those without wealth to fall back on, the solution has been debt. Ultra-low interest rates have filled the gap between stagnant wages and rising costs. Canadians now hold over $2 trillion in personal debts on credit cards, car loans, tuition loans and mortgages. ...

And so for this Ontario election, a central issue (if we can move past incantations about how terrible the Wynne Liberals were) will likely be the affordability of everyday life for working class people. And on that issue we might be about to see an epic right-left battle. On one hand, Doug Ford will offer his vision of small government, low taxes and free markets uber alles. The talking heads on pundit shows will be practically snapping their necks in nodding agreement about how tax cuts for themselves will trickle down to others. But mostly, Ford will offer distraction. He complains about elites and fat cats, although he comes from inherited wealth. ...

What Ford is unlikely to offer are ways to reduce everyday costs. He definitely won’t explain who will pay for his promises. He won’t say whose services he will cut and privatize.

Horwath’s answer is to build new models of security to replace the ones once supplied through a job and union benefits. In an economy in which fewer workers have benefits, the NDP leader is pitching new dental and drug plans. Because now workers have little bargaining power, she supports minimum wage increases and better leave provisions. Horwath is also likely to put forward a child care plan that will save parents thousands of dollars. She has a tuition grant plan to tackle student debt. She’s promised rent control. It is a classic social democratic pitch. ...

And, as the working class dynamics become clear, middle and upper class Liberals may yet decide to come to the table. But the dice might be loaded. It’s easy to figure out the value of a tax cut today. But it’s hard to know what social stability is worth until it’s gone.