January 31st is not the finish line of Brexit. There is substantial uncertainty around the UK’s position in healthcare and it will take years for the sector to stabilize. Brexit is not completed until the UK is out of the transition period and newly established trade, regulatory and compliance rules are set with the EU.

The Brexit transition period is aimed to give time for the UK and the EU to agree on what their future relationship will look like. During this period, the UK is also open to making new trade arrangements outside the block with a UK-US transatlantic trade deal getting the most attention from media. While diverging from the EU rules and regulations may benefit some businesses, others, especially with closer ties to the EU will suffer from the UK’s departure the most.

Healthcare Workforce

Large proportions of UK businesses rely on external workforce, including EU citizens. Staff shortage in the healthcare sector has been an ongoing problem in the UK and free movement restrictions will deepen the issue. EU nationals make up 9.5% of physicians in England’s hospitals and community health services. In addition, 6.4% of all nurses and 5.7% of scientific, therapeutic and technical staff within the NHS are coming from the EU.

London is particularly dependant on the EU healthcare workforce with one-third of all EU staff working in the capital. To control the opening supply-demand gap, the UK Government will need to create an effective immigration system post-Brexit.

National Health Service (NHS) Service Provision

Under the Cross-Border Healthcare Directive and S2 scheme, patients are allowed to have NHS-funded treatment in any other EU country or Switzerland if the treatment cannot be provided by the NHS within a ‘medically justifiable’ time period in the UK. The NHS has already been under pressure to deliver high-quality care while making efficiency savings. The inability to plan the future workforce and workload could pave the way for growing shortages and declining service quality.