Survey shows 56% of respondents would rather see the government fend off a downturn than deliver a surplus

This article is more than 10 months old

This article is more than 10 months old

Voters are more inclined to argue the Morrison government should stimulate the economy to avoid a downturn than preserve the long-promised budget surplus at all costs, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

The latest survey of 1,033 respondents suggests more than half the sample, 56%, would prioritise stimulating the Australian economy and delaying the surplus to help prevent a downturn over pushing the budget back into black at all costs (33%), with 12% unsure.

Voters were asked questions about the economy and budgetary management this fortnight, prompted by the International Monetary Fund downgrading Australia’s economic growth forecasts by 0.4% to 1.7% in 2019 amid rising geopolitical turmoil, and a rolling debate about whether there should be more pump priming of the economy.

More than 60% of voters approve of major parties' performance – Essential poll Read more

Asked to identify the main reason why the IMF had revised down Australia’s economic growth forecast, 10% of the sample nominated local factors outside the federal government’s control, 42% nominated global factors outside the federal government’s control, and 29% cited the Morrison government’s economic management, while 19% were unsure.

While a chunk of respondents flagged concern about the government’s current stewardship of the economy, with faltering economic growth and interest rates now set to emergency levels, speaking more generally, voters ranked the Coalition ahead of Labor on economic management.

Asked which party they trusted more to handle economic management, 49% of the sample said the Coalition and 34% said Labor, with 17% unsure – the same result as in March, when the question was last asked.

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Voters were asked this week to describe their own personal financial situation, which would impact their perceptions of the economy, and 38% characterised themselves as financially comfortable, 39% said they could manage household bills but would struggle to afford anything extra, and 22% reported feeling under financial pressure.

The Morrison government has signalled repeatedly it can keep Australia out of a downturn and also guard the budget surplus forecast for next year. Despite the Reserve Bank governor, Philip Lowe, calling for further fiscal stimulus, the Coalition is persisting with a plan of relying on income tax cuts legislated in July and leaning on the states to accelerate small-scale infrastructure to stimulate growth – but the government has not ruled out taking future action if the economy deteriorates.

Voters were also asked questions this week about Extinction Rebellion, a global protest movement calling for aggressive action on the climate crisis. The group is spearheading protests in major cities around the world, and its tactics are polarising.

Sentiment in the survey is also polarised. For voters in the sample who are aware of Extinction Rebellion and its motives, 52% support the campaign either strongly or somewhat, and 44% oppose the protest activity either strongly or somewhat.

Extinction Rebellion: hitting a nerve at Australia's climate flashpoint Read more

The action has some support among Coalition voters, with 21% of people identifying themselves as Coalition voters who are aware of Extinction Rebellion and its objectives supporting the campaign either strongly or somewhat. 70% are opposed either strongly or somewhat.

Unsurprisingly, Greens voters are the most supportive group in the sample, while Labor voters are split, but more favour the protest action than oppose it.

There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling, as none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition victory on 18 May. The polls instead projected Labor in front on a two-party-preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48.

The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis.

Guardian Australia is not now publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party-preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and a range of policy issues.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3%.