Breaking down the Raptors’ possible first-round opponents As the Toronto Raptors wait to find out who they’ll face in Round 1 of the NBA playoffs, TSN Raptors Reporter Josh Lewenberg takes a look at how they match up with their four most-likely Eastern Conference opponents: the Detroit Pistons, Brooklyn Nets, Miami Heat and Orlando Magic.

Josh Lewenberg TSN Raptors Reporter Follow|Archive

TORONTO – It’s that time of the year again. It’s time to scoreboard watch.

With Monday’s win, the Toronto Raptors clinched their sixth Atlantic division title in franchise history and also guaranteed themselves a top-two seed in the Eastern Conference. The Milwaukee Bucks need just one more win (or Toronto loss) to officially lock up first place, so it’s safe to assume the Raptors will finish in second and open the postseason against the seventh-place team.

Given how little they have to play for over these final four games of the regular season, the attention shifts to the neck-and-neck battle at the bottom of the East playoff picture, where 1.5 games separate four teams: the Detroit Pistons, Brooklyn Nets, Miami Heat and Orlando Magic. The Charlotte Hornets are still alive, but just barely. They may have to win out in order to have a shot.

Only three of those teams will make the playoffs and one of them will finish seventh and face Toronto in the first round, beginning the weekend of Apr. 13. Who will that team be? It might come down to the final day of the season, next Wednesday.

Like the rest of us, the Raptors are waiting and watching.

“I’ll tell you a secret,” head coach Nick Nurse said ahead of Monday’s game against the Magic. “I don’t know if this is true for everybody, every coach in the league, but when you look at the standings – from day one, game one to game 82 – you look like four times a day. I mean, you do. You're just always looking to see who’s going where, how it's shifting and who's going to end up where. I don't know, maybe it's just something to do. There’s not much you can do about it.”

Generally, that’s true, but there is something the Raptors can do about it. They’ll play a part in deciding how things shake out, at least to some degree. Four of their final five games come against teams fighting for positioning at the bottom of the East. They’ve already beaten Orlando and will visit Brooklyn on Wednesday, Charlotte on Friday and host Miami Sunday afternoon.

They’ve also started to prepare for every possibility, with Nurse assigning each of his assistants a different team to scout.

“It just changes and moves and shifts back, and goes one way, comes back the other,” Nurse said of the standings. “But we've gotta look at them because it kind of comes up on you quick. Once the season ends, you've gotta figure out who you play and then you gotta get to work. It's a pretty short window to get ready for that first game, so I'm looking a little bit, but my assistants are looking a little harder right now.”

Many believe the playoffs don’t really begin in the East until the second round, when Toronto is lined up to face Philadelphia and Milwaukee will likely duke it out with Boston. Yes, that’s where things figure to get interesting, but the Raptors should know better than to take their first-round opponent lightly.

Those first few games of the postseason haven’t exactly been smooth sailing for them in recent years, so getting through that opening series convincingly would go a long way in easing nerves ahead of the real test to come.

So, as the Raptors wait to find out who they’ll see in Round 1, should they have a rooting interest? Here’s a look at how they match up with their four most-likely opponents.

Orlando Magic

Record: 38-40.

Current seed: 9th, 0.5 game behind 8th-place Miami, 1.0 game behind 7th-place Brooklyn.

Remaining schedule: vs New York (Wednesday), vs Atlanta (Friday), at Boston (Sunday), at Charlotte (Apr. 10).

Odds of finishing 7th, per BBall Index’s model (based off 10,000 simulations): 29.5%.

Season series: 2-2.

Despite Monday’s embarrassing loss in Toronto and being the ninth-place team going into Tuesday’s slate of games, the Magic are in a decent spot to make the playoffs and actually have the best odds at finishing in seventh, according to the BBall Index model referenced above. Their next two games come at home, where they’ve won seven straight and will now face the lowly Knicks and Hawks. They also own the tiebreaker with Miami, who has a much tougher remaining schedule.

Orlando has been a thorn in Toronto’s side recently, even if the Raptors tied up the season series with Monday’s dominant 121-109 win. The Magic out-played them in each of the first three meetings, losing the first on Danny Green’s buzzer beater but winning the next two by 29 and 15 points respectively – two of Toronto’s worst performances of the year.

As always, it’s best to take the season series with a grain of salt, in this case especially. Kyle Lowry missed the first of those two blowouts and Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in the second.

At the same time, give the Magic some credit. Their length and athleticism has disrupted Toronto’s offence. The Raptors have only been held under 100 points nine times this season and a third of those games came against Orlando. Pascal Siakam, who’s often the hub of that offence, shot just 13-for-38 (34 per cent) in the four meetings. For context, he’s shooting 56 per cent against the rest of the league.

There aren’t many teams that can match the Raptors’ size and versatility on the wing and at the forward positions. With Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Wes Iwundu, Orlando has a shot. If there’s a cause for concern, it’s that.

However, the Magic simply don’t have the high level talent or experience needed to really threaten Toronto – or any other top Eastern Conference team – in a seven-game series. All-star centre Nikola Vucevic has had a fantastic season, but he’s probably not the type of player that’s going to win a playoff series for you. The starters have appeared in 33 career postseason games, and none since 2014. The Raptors starters, to compare, have 320 games of playoff experience.

The future is bright in Orlando but, as we saw on Monday, when the Raptors are healthy and fully locked in, especially on the defensive end, this isn’t a fair fight.

Prediction: Raptors in 4.

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 39-39.

Current seed: 7th, 0.5 game behind 6th-place Detroit and 0.5 game ahead of 8th-place Miami.

Remaining schedule: vs Toronto (Wednesday), at Milwaukee (Saturday), at Indiana (Sunday), vs Miami (Apr. 10).

Odds of finishing 7th, per BBall Index’s model (based off 10,000 simulations): 26.0%.

Season series: 2-1 Raptors (fourth and final meeting in Brooklyn on Wednesday)

If nothing else, this would be fun. There’s a history here. Before the Raptors became perennial Eastern Conference contenders, the most successful run in franchise history began in 2014 with that memorable seven-game series against Brooklyn.

From an experience standpoint it couldn’t have been more of a mismatch. Back in the playoffs after a five-year drought, Toronto was young and playing with house money. They had already exceeded everybody’s expectations post-Rudy Gay trade, including their own front office’s, and were just looking to prove they belonged. For the veteran Nets, it was NBA Finals or bust.

It made for an iconic matchup. Outside of the arena, Raptors fans introduced the league to Jurassic Park. Inside it, they literally rocked the building as Deron Williams shot free throws late in Game 7. With Masai Ujiri’s “F Brooklyn” speech ahead of Game 1, a local hero was born. With Paul Piece’s series-deciding block on Kyle Lowry, a local villain was born.

This time around the roles would be reversed. The Raptors are the older, battle-tested team with big aspirations and the pressure to deliver. The Nets are the plucky overachievers that have nothing to lose.

After combining to win just 69 games over the last three seasons, the Nets are on the cusp of returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. They’ve stumbling to the finish line a bit, having lost six of their last nine games – a result of their brutally tough late-season schedule – but that shouldn’t take away from what they’ve accomplished. Like Dwane Casey’s Raptors of yesteryear, they’ve truly embraced the underdog mentality. It’s served them well and has reportedly earned head coach Kenny Atkinson and his staff contract extensions.

Take them lightly and they’ll make you pay. They’re well coached, they play hard and they’ve got a rising star in D’Angelo Russell, who will challenge Siakam for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award.

Even if you don’t believe Russell’s taken Siakam-sized steps this year, there’s no denying how much he’s developed, growing into a deserved all-star and the face of this Nets franchise. He also happens to be a #RaptorKiller. In eight career games against Toronto, Russell is averaging 23.1 points – his third-highest scoring average against any team.

Still, it’s hard to skip steps in the NBA. Like Orlando, Russell and the Nets are young and inexperienced. Raptors fans who remember DeMar DeRozan shoot 39 per cent in that series against Brooklyn – the first of his career – know there’s a learning curve for high-volume guards in the playoffs. It’s a different animal and Russell may learn that the hard way, and fast.

Could this young Nets team push the favoured vets like the Raptors did to Brooklyn five years ago? Perhaps, but it’s hard to imagine. These Nets just aren’t as good as those 2013-14 Raptors were and, more importantly, these Raptors are a whole lot better than the ancient Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Joe Johnson-led Nets.

Prediction: Raptors in 5.

Miami Heat

Record: 38-39.

Current seed: 8th, 0.5 game behind 7th-place Brooklyn, 0.5 game ahead of 9th-place Orlando.

Remaining schedule: vs Boston (Wednesday), at Minnesota (Friday), at Toronto (Sunday), vs Philadelphia (Apr. 9), at Brooklyn (Apr. 10).

Odds of finishing 7th, per BBall Index’s model (based off 10,000 simulations): 23.0%.

Season series: 3-0 Raptors (fourth and final meeting in Toronto on Sunday).

The Heat have their work cut out for them to even make the playoffs, let alone climb to seventh. They lost the tiebreaker with Orlando, which could end up being crucial, and have a tough remaining schedule. They’ll face the Nets in Brooklyn on the final day of the season – a game that could determine the fate of both teams.

After an ugly month of February, which saw them fall seven games below .500, the Heat bounced back in March, going 11-5. That their best stretch of the season coincides with the return of underrated point guard Goran Dragic and gunner Dion Waiters comes as no surprise. They’ve been snake bitten with injuries for most of the season and even though they’re finally starting to get healthy they could be without breakout swingman Josh Richardson for the rest of the regular season.

With Dragic leading the charge and Dwyane Wade playing a supporting role off the bench in the final games of his legendary career, Miami simply doesn’t have the star power that some of these other teams do. What’s made them a tricky matchup, this season and in years past, is their depth and their defence.

Miami is the NBA’s seventh-ranked defensive team, although they haven’t looked the part against Toronto this season. In three meetings so far, the Raptors are scoring a ridiculous 119.9 points per 100 possessions on 52 per cent shooting, including 43 per cent from three-point range. Chalk at least some of that up to Miami’s injuries and, once again, take the season series with a grain of salt.

What always concerns you about the Heat is the physicality with which they play and you know that head coach Erik Spoelstra is going to find a way to get the most out of his team. And with Wade and Dragic, they don’t fall into the inexperienced category like the other teams in this race. They know what it takes to win at this time of the year.

It would be cool to see Wade go out in the playoffs, against the Raptors or any other team, rather than saying goodbye after Game 82. Even at age 37, it’s not hard to imagine him having another vintage D-Wade performance or two in the playoffs, maybe even winning a game, but he’s also not the threat he once was.

Similar to the Magic, this Heat team just doesn’t have the star power to really scare you in a seven-game series. Depth is nice and helps you get through a long season, especially with all the injuries Miami has had to endure, but this is when teams with the best players tend to win out.

Prediction: Raptors in 5.

Detroit Pistons

Record: 39-38.

Current seed: 6th, 0.5 game ahead of 7th-place Brooklyn.

Remaining schedule: vs Indiana (Wednesday), at Oklahoma City (Friday), vs Charlotte (Sunday), vs Memphis (Apr. 9), at New York (Apr. 10).

Odds of finishing 7th, per BBall Index’s model (based off 10,000 simulations): 21.2%.

Season series: 3-0 Pistons.

Of the Raptors’ possible first-round matchups, this would probably be the toughest. And that isn’t based on the season series, at least not entirely. Detroit won all three meetings, with each game going down to the wire. Ironically, after years of facing criticism over his late-game play calling, it was Pistons head coach Dwane Casey that out-executed his former team and former assistant, Nick Nurse.

Still, outside of those losses to Detroit, the Raptors have actually fared well in close contests, going 11-4 in games decided by three points or fewer. They were 5-7 last season. Besides, they only had the Leonard and Lowry duo in one of the three meetings with the Pistons. Forget about the season series.

As for Casey, if he’d have an advantage because of his familiarity with Nurse and the Raptors it would be minimal and unlikely to swing a playoff series.

The Pistons aren’t the toughest matchup for Toronto because of any of that. They’re the toughest matchup because they’re the best team in this race at the bottom of the East and, most importantly, they employ the best player.

With all due respect to Russell and Vucevic, both deserving all-stars having excellent seasons, Blake Griffin is in a different class. Not only has he been a problem for the Raptors, he’s also a handful for any team. He’s quick and skilled enough to hurt you on the perimeter, yet strong and athletic enough to beat you around the rim.

For all the defensive versatility on Toronto’s roster, they don’t have an obvious answer for a player like Griffin. Siakam isn’t physical enough and Serge Ibaka doesn’t have the lateral quickness at this stage of his career. Leonard might be the best bet, but does Nurse want his superstar battling with Griffin for 40-plus minutes a night in a seven-game series?

With Griffin and Andre Drummond, Detroit features one of the biggest and most physical frontcourt duos in the NBA, one of the reasons why Nurse has been experimenting with the sparingly used Ibaka and Marc Gasol pairing of late.

The Pistons have come down to earth a bit recently, thanks in large part to a road-heavy stretch, but they’ve been one of the conference’s best teams since the all-star break. They haven’t lost at home in two months.

That’s not to say that they could or would beat the Raptors in a seven-game series, but they certainly present some challenges and matchup problems that these other teams do not.

Prediction: Raptors in 6.​