WH gives up trying to keep Trump on econ message Presented by U.S. Bank

WH GIVES UP ON KEEPING TRUMP ON ECON MESSAGE — MM reports here on how President Trump keeps veering wildly off course when he could be selling a very strong message on the economy including historically low unemployment, strong economic growth, sky-high enthusiasm among small businesses and shattered records for job openings.

“Instead, the president is repeatedly muddling that message with easily debunked falsehoods or hyperbole about the state of the economy while pressing on with unpopular trade wars that frustrate establishment Republicans and business groups worried about price increases.

“His undisciplined approach — coupled with his obsessing about the Russia investigation, Hillary Clinton and the 2016 election — is damaging what many Republicans say should have been a political slam dunk for the GOP heading into the fall.

THE NUT GRAF: “White House aides and top lawmakers have repeatedly implored Trump as recently as last week to stay focused on the economy, but haven't found success with a president who prefers his own method of communicating.

One senior administration official said people inside the West Wing have largely stopped even trying to get Trump to stick to an economic message that focuses on facts and avoids wild exaggerations. This person also said they don't think the press will cover the economy fairly anyway. ‘We have a ton of good facts and a good story to tell but he's not a perfect messenger,’ this person said. ‘And we have a media problem as well.’”

WORTH REPEATING — There is pervasive frustration inside the administration that even if Trump did avoid aggrandizing his economic accomplishments it wouldn’t matter because press coverage would simply ignore the good numbers and focus on anything negative they can find. MM doesn’t think this is really fair as plenty of people cover jobs and GDP data pretty straight. And in these pages we have REPEATEDLY said Trump deserves some credit for juicing up the economy from where it was when President Obama left.

But Kevin Hassett in our interview cited some empirical data showing the press tends to cover good economic news less positively under GOP presidents. And he’s probably got something of a point. It’s just that Trump presents so many opportunities to cover things other than good data that it’s hard to put all the blame on the media.

Hassett basically likened those who deny that Trump’s economy is better than Obama’s to climate change deniers. “This is a historically good economy, one of those special moments that we see every now and then. If you don't agree that there is enough economic data to support this then you are a science denier as much as a denier in any other area.”

“The treatment of the president is very hostile. I suppose that if we all became saintly, perfect beings that maybe there is a chance that someone might cover things positively. But it doesn't look like it to me.”

A message from U.S. Bank Banks must do more and better to reverse systemic inequality. At U.S. Bank, that starts by committing $116 million to address social and economic inequities and elevating Black voices and Black-owned businesses. Because we’re small enough to care – and big enough to make a difference. Learn more.

JAMIE DIMON BLOWS HIS STACK — JPMorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon has a habit of occasionally being very honest about things in ways that get him in hot water. That happened in a major way on Wednesday when he went HAM on Trump.

At an event at JPM on Park Ave., Dimon said: “I think I could beat Trump. Because I'm as tough as he is, I'm smarter than he is. I would be fine. He could punch me all he wants, it wouldn't work with me. I'd fight right back.”

Then he launched this zinger: "This wealthy New Yorker actually earned his money. It wasn't a gift from daddy.”

And OF COURSE Dimon issued a walk back a couple hours later: “I should not have said it. I'm not running for president. Proves I wouldn’t make a good politician. I get frustrated because I want all sides to come together to help solve big problems.”

BETWEEN THE LINES — People on Wall Street like Dimon say this kind of stuff about Trump off the record quite a lot. They disdain his business career and express total exasperation about his behavior and policies on immigration while embracing the tax cuts and deregulation (without giving him much credit for them). Trump has long bridled at being looked down on by Wall Street titans. It’s part of the reason he was so thrilled to get former Goldman president Gary Cohn on his White House staff.

Dimon, a Democrat, probably won’t ever run for president. While he thinks he’d be good and bring common sense solutions to infrastructure, immigration and other areas he’s not deluded at all about how much progressives disdain Wall Street and how impossible it would be to win a Democratic primary. And like Mike Bloomberg, Dimon would likely find the independent path all but impossible. It’s not like anyone loves Wall Street bankers outside of Wall Street.

SPEAKING OF THAT… Better Markets Dennis Kelleher (one of Jamie’s favorites!): “Nothing would be better for financial reform and reining in the socially-useless, job-killing, crisis-creating gambling by Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail banks than if JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon ran for President.

“He apparently forgets that, while President Trump has turned out to be Wall Street’s best friend, Candidate Trump ran the most anti-Wall Street presidential campaign since FDR.”

OVERHEARD — A person who happened to be at JPMorgan on Wednesday tells POLITICO’s Colin Wilhelm they walked by Dimon at a meeting with staff telling them: “I’ve already said too many dumb things today.”

KUDLOW DINGS CANADA … AGAIN — NEC Director Larry Kudlow has become the point man for needling the Canadians to move on dairy in NAFTA talks.

From Fox Business Network’s “After the Bell”: “Well, we did very well with Mexico. We basically have an agreement and principle that I think will last. That came together, what, a week ago or so, 10 days ago? I give Bob Lighthizer and Jared Kushner a lot of credit. The Canadian thing’s a little slow. We’re still trying to get some breakthroughs.

“You’ve probably heard me say, one of the big problems – I am not negotiating that directly, but one of the big problems with Canada is a four letter word, M,I, L, K, milk, OK. That’s all. And if they would just give in – they’ve got tariffs, supply management systems, subsidies, price controls, oh, my gosh. They’re going to have to give in.”

NEW CHINA TRADE TALKS? — Wall Street liked this one, which appeared to originate with the Chinese side in Beijing: WSJ’s Lingling Wei in Beijing and Jacob M. Schlesinger in Washington: “The Trump administration is reaching out to China for a new high-level round of trade talks, in an effort to give Beijing another opportunity to address U.S. concerns before it imposes new tariffs on Chinese imports, said people briefed on the matter.

“Senior U.S. officials, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, this week sent an invitation to Chinese counterparts headed by Vice Premier Liu He, proposing another meeting to talk about bilateral trade, the people said. The U.S. side has proposed to have the discussions in the coming weeks and has asked the Chinese to dispatch a ministerial-level delegation for the talks. The proposed meeting might take place in Washington or Beijing, the people said.” Read more.

MEDIAN INCOME RECOVERS TO PRE-RECESSION LEVELS — POLITICO’s Timothy Noah: “Median U.S. household income reached $61,400 in 2017, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday, an increase of 1.8 percent over 2016 that pushed incomes back to their level before the Great Recession. It was the third consecutive annual hike in the household median, which is generally judged the best income measure because it presents a snapshot of the typical American household.

“The Census calculations took inflation into account, so these increases represented meaningful gains. But the increase in 2017, the first year of the Trump administration, was considerably slower than during the final two years of the Obama administration. In 2015 the Census Bureau reported that median household income grew 5.2 percent, and in 2016 that it grew 3.2 percent.” Read more.

THE MOST BORING BULL RUN EVER— Latest Bloomberg BusinessWeek cover examines why this long bull market is so boring.

From the piece by Chris Nagi: “When we tell our grandchildren about this bull market, we’ll start by describing its demise, in the crash of 2019, or 2020, or 2025. But we don’t know the end of this story yet. What will we say of the rest? That dips were bought and passive investing ruled, perhaps, and that a handful of tech megacaps—most of them decades old—grew to planetary size.

“But if the decade is remembered for anything, it could also be as the era when equities returned close to 20 percent a year on average from the March 2009 bottom and the stock market, somehow, got boring. Which is to say, this isn’t the like the boom of the late 1990s.” Read more. Cover image.

Jamie Dimon has thoughts on Trump. | Richard Dew/AP Photo

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

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THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Zachary Warmbrodt on state officials’ effort to block the House data security bill. To get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m., please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or [email protected].

DRIVING THE DAY— House Speaker Paul Ryan at 2:00 p.m. will deliver a speech on “advancing American leadership in the world to mark the launch of The Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington, D.C.” … House Financial Services marks up multiple bills at 9:00 a.m. … House Small Business Committee has a hearing at 11:00 a.m. on the impact of the opioid epidemic on small business … Senate Ag Committee has a hearing at 10:00 a.m. on “Perspectives on U.S. Agricultural Trade” …

Senate Budget Committee has a hearing at 10:30 a.m. on “An Update on Transparency at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)” … Consumer Prices at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.3 percent headline and 0.2 percent core … Treasury Budget at 2:00 p.m. expected to rise to $211B from $108B in 2017

MEASURING CRISIS IMPACT — Bloomberg has “ 8 charts that show how the shockwaves from Lehman's collapse are still reverberating through the global economy 10 years later.”

REGULATORS FOCUS ON ACTIVITIES — POLITICO’s Victoria Guida: “A top Treasury Department official said … that financial regulators are working toward identifying activities that pose a risk to the financial system, rather than focusing on individual firms, in what would amount to a major change for the uber regulator.

“A Treasury report last year endorsed using the Financial Stability Oversight Council to police risky activities across the finance industry instead of cracking down on particular companies. Craig Phillips, counselor to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, said the next step in that process would come soon.” Read more.

U.S. FALLING BEHIND ON FINTECH? — POLITICO’s Colin Wilhelm: “Craig Phillips, counselor to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, said Wednesday he believes that the U.S. is in danger of lagging behind other countries on financial technology innovation and policy.

“‘This is a huge competitive threat if we don't get the investment right,’ said Phillips, speaking before the Exchequer Club of Washington, an economic and financial policy organization. ‘There's a huge risk the U.S. will fall behind, and with that a risk that jobs will go elsewhere.’” Read more.

CITIGROUP FINANCE CHIEF TO RETIRE — WSJ’s Christina Rexrode and Micah Maidenberg: “Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach will retire next year, ending a nearly 10-year run as the bank’s top finance executive, the company announced Tuesday.

“Mr. Gerspach, 65 years old, will end his tenure as the bank’s CFO on March 1, 2019, according to an email Chief Executive Michael Corbat sent to employees that was viewed by The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Gerspach has served as Citigroup’s CFO since July 2009, making him the longest-serving finance chief currently at any major U.S. bank. He will be succeeded by Mark Mason, 47, the finance chief of Citigroup’s Institutional Clients Group, the side of the bank that includes investment banking and trading.” Read more.

REPUBLICANS LINE UP TAX CUT MESSAGING BILL — HuffPost’s Arthur Delaney and Matt Fuller: “While Republicans on the campaign trail have largely dropped the tax cut bill from their midterm messaging, GOP leadership is gearing up for another round of tax headlines anyway ― with a House bill that would turn the temporary tax cuts Congress passed last year into permanent ones.

“The measure has no real shot in the Senate and won’t become law … The bill is truly just a messaging opportunity, a chance for Republicans to once again champion their already-passed tax cut bill and bash Democrats. But the funny thing about the tax cut bill is Republicans are hardly talking about it.“ Read more.

THE CHALLENGE OF SENTENCING WHITE-COLLAR CRIMINALS — NYT’s Peter Henning: “A challenge every federal judge faces is deciding the appropriate punishment for a white-collar defendant. How much should a court take into account the background of these defendants who may not have previously run afoul of the law and are unlikely to commit additional crimes?

“Judges have broad discretion under federal sentencing law. A court must consider the seriousness of the crime and the need to deter criminal conduct, protect the public and avoid unwarranted sentence disparities among similar defendants. But judges do not have complete autonomy to decide what the sentence is.” Read more.

BRAINARD SAYS FED HAS ROOM TO RAISE RATES — Reuters’ Ann Saphir: “The Federal Reserve has room to raise interest rates over the next couple of years without slowing economic growth, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Wednesday, suggesting that monetary policy would likely continue to tighten for some time.

“With economic growth strong, unemployment at 3.9 percent and inflation near the Fed’s 2.0 percent goal, further gradual interest rate rises are likely to be appropriate over the next year or two, Fed Governor Lael Brainard told the Detroit Economic Club.” Read more.

GOLDMAN’S BEAR MARKET WARNING — Bloomberg’s Lu Wang: “While U.S. equity investors have kept their cool during this year’s escalation of trade tensions, the warnings from Wall Street are only getting louder. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are the latest to weigh in, highlighting the potential danger to Corporate America if a full-blown trade war erupts.

“In separate notes published this week, strategists at both firms issued estimates on the possible hit to earnings, with Goldman chief strategist David Kostin going as far as calling for a bear market under a scenario where the U.S. imposed 10 percent tariffs on all imports.” Read more.

CYRPTO SCEWS YOUNG AND MALE — Per a new survey of over 3,00 people across three generations (Baby Boomers, Gen Xers, and Millennials): “[A]bout one in four millennials plans to invest in crypto in the next year, about 10x the rate as Baby Boomers. And millennial men are twice as likely than millennial women to invest in crypto. Full results here.

SPOTTED at ICBA’s reception at Stanton and Greene Wednesday evening to celebrate the landmark passage of S. 2155: “Hosted by ICBA President and CEO Rebeca Romero Rainey, the reception featured Reps. Keith Rothfus, Ted Budd, Scott Tipton, Andy Barr, French Hill, Randy Hultgren, Ami Bera, Claudia Tenney and Bill Foster.”

FIN REG POLLS WELL — Per results of polling conducted for fin-reg group Better Markets: “Roughly two thirds of those who will ‘definitely’ vote in 2018 want to keep the regulations that were in place or make them stricter (66 percent);

“Majorities of Democrats (70 percent) and independents (53 percent), as well as nearly half of Republicans (49 percent), would have preferred to leave Dodd-Frank untouched or to introduce greater regulation of the biggest banks.” Read more.

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