Don't expect to enjoy this much solitude along the entire Appalachian National Scenic Trail in 2016

Planning to hike the entire Appalachian National Scenic Trail this year? Then you might consider a flip-flop, or going against the tide of hikers coming north from Springer Mountain in Georgia.

Between the National Park Service Centennial in August and the movies Wild and A Walk in the Woods, the national parks in general and the A.T. specifically have drawn more than a little attention, and would-be hikers are taking to long-distance trails with keen intent.

“We’re guessing about what next year will be like," Ron Tipton, executive director of the Appalachian Trail Conservancy, said in late December. "I think that it probably will be the busiest year ever on the A.T., especially in the spring. And we’re getting ready for it.”

"Getting ready" means educating prospective thru-hikers to the ATC's Voluntary Overnight Registration System, which allows hikers to see how many hikers already are out on the trail, calculate camping space, and even choose a less populated A.T. section. The ATC also has been working with the U.S. Forest Service to create more campsites in Georgia, where some of the heaviest use occurs as most thru-hikers head south-to-north, not visa versa.

“It is (a concern)," Mr. Tipton responded when asked if the A.T. was nearing its carrying capacity. "And I’ll tell you what we’re worrying about the most. Each end of the trail, very simple."

The southern stretch of the A.T., from Springer Mountain north into North Carolina, gets particularly heavy traffic in spring when hundreds of hikers set out within weeks of one another -- if not days -- with their hearts set on reaching Mount Katahdin in Maine, some 2,185 miles away. And then, in early-to-late fall, the trail running the final 100 or so miles to the top of Kathadin gets pounded by those nearing their thru-hike goal who often hike the final miles with family and friends.

"Eventually we may have to have some sort of quota system," the ATC executive director said. "We’re just kicking ideas around now. But the first quota system would probably end up being in Baxter (State Park in Maine), because, first of all, they’re at the end of the trail. They (Maine state parks officials) have contact with virtually every hiker who comes through, that goes up to a very fragile mountain. This is something that’s not entirely consistent with their overall management policy, to have all this use. It could be we will at some point a mandatory registration system for hiking the whole A.T."

Today, alternative thru-hikes are offering options to hikers, are the passionate subject of blogs and websites, are supported by every friend-of-theTrail organization, and are indeed taking some of the overuse pressure off the first 300 miles north of Springer. -- Michael Johnson in his article, Alternative Thru-Hikes, that ran in the ATC's March-April 2014 issue of A.T. Journeys.

Options include doing a "flip-flop," or starting your hike near the middle of the trail, say in Harpers Ferry, West Virginia, and hiking to one end, then returning to Harpers Ferry and hiking in the other direction. You could also avoid the crowding in the South in spring by starting at Kathadin in late spring or early summer with your sights set on Springer Mountain. That strategy, though, could be wrecked by late-season snowstorms, deep winter snowpacks that leave some northern stretches of trail buried when you're trying to hike through, or drought conditions that leave you with little water along the trail in the South.

While hiking pressure on the A.T. has been increasing for the past two decades, according to Mr. Tipton, the movies -- first Wild, the tale of Cheryl Strayed hiking the Pacific Crest Trail to cope with her personal demons, and then A Walk in the Woods, the film version of Bill Bryson's popular book of the same title -- have ratcheted traffic up a bit more sharply in the past year alone.

“There’s a number of indications of the increasing popularity of the trail. One is pretty tangible. Our publications are mostly traditional maps and guides to sections of the trail or there’s a couple of books that are put out as to how you hike the whole trail. Where you go to buy your food, where you go to camp, where you can get a free shower. But also trail data," he said. "Those publications ... we’re up 10 percent at least this year in sales. And those are numbers through November. I just met with our publisher last week and he was telling us Costco just did a big order. They’ve never ordered from us before. We’re selling through REI and Amazon, and also directly more than we ever have.

“That has more to do with Wild, because of the timing. Wild came out in December (2014), and we started seeing this right away. We had a significant kind of another uptick after A Walk in the Woods, so our fall sales have been really high, too."

While well more than 1,000 hikers set out in spring or early summer to cover the entire A.T. in one multi-month gulp, those who actually make it are substantially fewer. That said, for 2015 Mr. Tipton expects more than 1,000 hikers to have accomplished that goal, the most ever recorded in one year.

Of course, greatly boosting the overall number of feet on the trail are section hikers -- those who do a section of the A.T. once or twice a year as part of an overall goal to eventually cover all 2,185 miles -- weekend hikers, and day hikers.

“I think that some of that probably is influenced by the National Park Service Centennial, and of course the National Park System as a whole is seeing some increase at least this year," said Mr. Tipton. "So we track with that, but we’re probably going beyond that.”

While Shenandoah National Park didn't see a double-digit increase in visitation in 2015, Superintendent Jim Northup expects higher visitation this year as a result of the Park Service centennial, but also because of the A.T. section that runs through his park.

“When Bill Bryson released his book, A Walk in the Woods, it increased use on the Appalachian Trail by about 40 percent I’m told," he said during a recent phone conversation. "And the movie Wild that came out, we understand, just anecdotally, we’ve heard that that has increased use on the Pacific Crest Trail quite significiantly.

“So one of the things we’re a bit concerned about, and not overly concerned but a bit concerned about, is how the release of the movie A Walk in the Woods may attract more people to that Appalachian Trail," said Superintendent Northup. "Shenandoah National Park contains one of the most accessible sections of the Appalachian Trail. The trail crosses Skyland Drive in a number of different places. So if people want to come hike on the A.T. for just a day, or two, or do a section, we’re certainly one of the more attractive sections. So we’re looking at increasing staffing in the backcountry, having some additional backcountry rangers.

“We’re working with our partners at the Potomac Appalachian Trail Club that mains the A.T. through the park, as well as what we call all of our 'blue blaze' trails, our hiking trails," the superintendent continued. "They have a program called their ridge runner program, where we transfer money to the PATC and they hire ridge runners to be out on the A.T. to really educate people about the park regulations and camping techniques. We will probably add another ridge runner (in 2016), partly in response to the movie and partly in response to just increased visitation.”

The ATC also plans to invest in more ridge runners this year.

"These ridge runners are very good at saying, 'You know, you might want to think about not camping at such and such a place tonight, because we know it’s going to be really busy and there are some other alternatives you don’t know about that will buffer you from being in a crowd'," said Mr. Tipton.

While there are strategies that can be employed to limit crowding -- a web search for "Strategies for hiking the Appalachian Trail turned up 69,400 hits in less than half-a-second -- the fact remains that there are more people on the A.T. than ever before, and you shouldn't head north, or south, expecting total solitude every step of the way.

“I hiked the whole trail a long time ago. There’s no question it’s a lot different experience now. In some places it’s very different. Again, depending on the time of day, the time of year, the time of the month you’re in a certain place. It’s not really much of a wilderness experience if you’re hiking in the South in the spring. It’s never been a wilderness experience if you’ve been in a national park on a weekend where the weather is decent," Mr. Tipton said.

"The trail is more popular now than it was 5, 10, 15 years ago," he said a minute later. "And for good reason. It’s well-managed, well-maintained. It’s famous, it’s a great experience. We have a trail that’s 99.9 percent protected, in public ownership. And all those things attract people to the Appalachian Trail."

So expect crowds in some sections of the trail this year...or plan your thru-hike for 2017, or even 2018, when it might not be as crowded.