Rising anxiety as you await the line-ups. Uncontrollable rage when your captain misses a penalty. Crushing despair as an 89th minute goal wipes out that vital clean sheet. Recurring disappointment week in, week out as every team in your mini-league outscores you.

Fantasy Football has returned, and deep down, despite all of the above, we love it really. The Bookies’ Advantage rounds up and analyses odds from over 20 top bookmakers for the anytime goalscorer and clean sheet markets to help you with those all important transfer, captaincy, and squad selection decisions every gameweek.

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A brief reminder of the rules:

We stick to standard fantasy football squad selection rules (£100m budget, max 3 players from each team, etc). Captaincy is given to the player with the highest % chance of scoring that gameweek. Vice-captain is the player with the second highest % chance. 3-4-3 is the formation of choice. Funds are distributed to give priority to the starting XI at the expense of the bench. Therefore, a £4.0m backup GK, a £4.5m playing MF, a £4.5m second sub DF and a £4.0m third sub DF will be selected most gameweeks. In goal and in defence, 1 player from each of the top 4 teams ranked likeliest to keep a clean sheet are selected. We often try to select cheap options from the teams available to free up funds for attacking players. In midfield and upfront, players are selected based on their likelihood of scoring according to the bookmakers. Budget often runs out or runs thin here, so we select the front 7 with the best probability of scoring for the budget available (this may mean missing out on some players who are attributed a high % of scoring).

So without further ado…

Defensive odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet Chelsea 1.75 57% Man Utd 1.86 54% Man City 2.2 45% Everton 2.25 44% Liverpool 2.3 43% Crystal Palace 2.3 43% Arsenal 2.45 41% Southampton 2.45 41% Tottenham 2.75 36% West Brom 2.97 34% Bournemouth 3.4 29% Huddersfield 4.55 22% Swansea 5.2 19% Stoke 5.2 19% Newcastle 5.9 17% Watford 6.5 15% Leicester 9 11% West Ham 9.1 11% Brighton 9.5 11% Burnley 11 9%

Chelsea, who conceded just 17 goals at home last season, welcome Burnley to Stamford Bridge on the opening weekend. Given the Clarets only managed to score 13 on their travels last term, it is no surprise to see the Blues top the bookies’ defensive rankings with a 57% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Thibaut Courtois offers the cheapest route into Antonio Conte’s defence and starts between the sticks for our squad.

Manchester United (54%) rank second ahead of their home clash with West Ham. Old Trafford was a fortress, defensively speaking, last season for Mourinho’s men, who conceded just 12 times in front of their own fans over the course of the campaign. With West Ham bleeding in a number of new attacking signings, a failure to instantly gel could see United start the season off with a home shutout. Phil Jones is expected to partner Eric Bailly in defence, given that both are suspended from European duties for the time being, and the Englishman is our choice here, coming in a full £1.0m cheaper than his Ivorian counterpart.

Manchester City (45%) and Everton (44%) round off the top four defensive prospects for Gameweek 1. Pep Guardiola’s men begin their charge for the title away to newly-promoted Brighton on Saturday evening. It may come as a surprise to some, but despite their well-publicised defensive issues, the Citizens actually had the fourth-best away defence in the division last season. Everton, meanwhile, improved markedly at Goodison Park under the guidance of Ronald Koeman as they finished the campaign with the joint-third best home defence in the top flight, conceding just 16 goals. They host a Stoke side that averaged less than a goal per game on the road in 2016/17. For our squad, Danilo and Mason Holgate make the cut. An injury to fellow new recruit Benjamin Mendy should see Danilo start for City, whilst Holgate looks primed to feature in the starting XI for Everton at either right back or as part of a back three.

On the bench, Rob Elliott (£4.0m – 17%) should offer decent save point potential when Tottenham visit St James’ Park, whilst Trent Alexander-Arnold (£4.5m – 43%) offers clean sheet potential away to Watford. Kevin Long (£4.0m – 9%) looks the likeliest of the ultra-budget defenders to feature.

Attacking odds

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring Romelu Lukaku 1.8 56% Michy Batshuayi 1.88 53% Sergio Aguero 1.91 52% Alexandre Lacazette 1.93 52% Harry Kane 2 50% Gabriel Jesus 2 50% Alvaro Morata 2.2 45% Danny Welbeck 2.3 43% Henrikh Mkhitaryan 2.4 42% Manolo Gabbiadini 2.6 38% Christian Benteke 2.63 38% Roberto Firmino 2.75 36% Sadio Mane 2.75 36% Pedro 2.75 36% Willian 2.75 36% Wayne Rooney 2.8 36% Dele Alli 2.88 35% Sandro Ramirez 2.88 35% Mohamed Salah 2.88 35% Jay Rodriguez 3.3 30% Salomon Rondon 3.3 30% Alex Iwobi 3.4 29% Jermain Defoe 3.4 29% Wilfried Zaha 3.5 29% Dwight Gayle 3.6 28% Joshua King 3.6 28% Dusan Tadic 3.6 28% Jamie Vardy 3.75 27% Paul Pogba 3.75 27% Kevin Mirallas 3.75 27% Kevin de Bruyne 3.75 27% Christian Eriksen 3.95 25% Kelechi Iheanacho 4.5 22% Joselu 4.5 22% Troy Deeney 4.5 22% Steve Mounie 4.5 22% James Ward-Prowse 4.5 22% Tammy Abraham 4.5 22% Javier Hernandez 5 20% Glenn Murray 5 20% Andros Townsend 5 20% Thomas Ince 5 20% Matt Phillips 5 20% Jordan Ayew 5.6 18% Riyad Mahrez 6 17% Marko Arnautovic 6 17% Matt Ritchie 6 17% Anthony Knockaert 6 17% Sam Vokes 6 17% Xherdan Shaqiri 6.25 16% Christian Atsu 6.5 15% Manuel Lanzini 7 14% Mame Biram Diouf 7.5 13% Ryan Fraser 8 13% Etienne Capoue 9 11% Roberto Pereyra 9 11% Aaron Mooy 9.5 11% Robbie Brady 9.5 11% Pascal Gross 10 10% Tom Carroll 11.5 9%

Romelu Lukaku (56%) takes our first captain’s armband of the season as he tops the bookmakers’ attacking ranks. The big Belgian begins his United Premier League career against his favourite opponents, West Ham. He has scored 9 goals, and provided 4 assists, in 12 games against the Hammers.

Michy Batshuayi (53%) and Sergio Aguero (52%) complete our front three for Gameweek 1. Batshuayi has enjoyed a productive pre-season for the Blues, notching 5 times, and welcomes Burnley, who lost 14 out of 19 on the road last term, to Stamford Bridge on Saturday. Aguero, meanwhile, has smashed 20 goals or more in each of his three previous seasons in the Premier League, and will be looking to give Brighton a baptism of fire in Saturday’s late kick off.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan (42%) is our first midfield pick and forms part of a double up for our squad on the Red Devils’ attack. The Armenian attacker has been in fine form for United in pre-season, chalking up 3 goals and as many assists, and will be looking to improve on an underwhelming first campaign in the red half of Manchester.

Sadio Mane and Pedro (both 36%) join Mkhitaryan in our starting XI. The pair were involved in 20 and 19 goals respectively for their clubs in the league last season, and both notched north of 150 points in the official FPL game. As extremely direct and attack-minded wingers, we can expect that trend to continue this term. Opening games away to Watford and at home to Burnley offer both a solid chance to start the campaign on a high.

Alex Iwobi (29%) completes our midfield for Gameweek 1. The Arsenal starlet has enjoyed a decent pre-season (2 goals, 2 assists) and is in line to start Friday’s opener against Leicester City, with Alexis Sanchez ruled out and Mesut Ozil doubtful for the Gunners. At just £5.5m, his low price is vital for the composition of our squad and could present a bargain if he fires against the Foxes. Swansea’s Tom Carroll (9%) is another potential bargain, priced at just £4.5m, and takes the first spot on our subs bench.

The bookies also fancy the chances of Willian, Dele Alli and Mohamed Salah this weekend, but budget constraints mean we have to overlook the trio.

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Good luck with your fantasy weekend!

May the odds be with you🙏