As the corporation and Sky go head-to-head with their Masters coverage, the terrestrial channel could lose Formula One, the Six Nations and the Olympics because of cuts in its budget

The climax of the Masters on Sunday night represents a high-stakes shoot-out in more ways than one, marking one of the periodic shifts in the tectonic plates of sports broadcasting. Sky, which noisily announced its Masters coverage from every billboard, is going head-to-head with a BBC in the midst of a review that could lead to substantial reductions in the corporation's sports budget.

The market for sports rights has lurched in several directions since Sky entered the market in the early 1990s, fuelled by the dramatic rise and fall of ITV Digital and Setanta, the shifting priorities and finances of the terrestrial giants, and the entrance of Disney-backed ESPN. It now looks likely to be entering another period of transition.

After years of trying, Sky has grabbed a share of the rights to the Masters and is showing the tournament in full, in 3D and HD, while the BBC is airing only the climactic final two days. As cross-departmental groups at the BBC consider a range of bold options to find the 20% savings required under its licence-fee deal with the government, insiders say a premium will continue to be put on big events that bind the nation together.

There were early signs that savings will have to be found last week, when the Football League informed clubs they would have to get by on 26% less in TV income, after the BBC declined to bid.

The European Championship and World Cup appear safe, but the Olympics may pose interesting questions – the BBC says renewing the rights beyond 2012 remains a priority, but "not at any price".

At the BBC, many believe Wimbledon, the Six Nations and Match of the Day are likely to be protected at all costs. But, even then, if ITV was to make a big play for the rugby – hugely attractive to its advertisers – it might become difficult for the BBC to compete. It will also look to retain the big summer set-pieces that become more than the sum of their parts with the might of the BBC behind them. But everything else could be up in the air.

Formula One has been highlighted as one of the contracts that might be at risk when it expires in 2014. At £200m, it was considered controversial and expensive at the time, but has delivered those valuable young male audiences the BBC's strategists crave.

For Sky, it would offer the perfect combination of the regularity that helps drive subscriptions and the technical elements that would make it an ideal showcase for its mobile and 3D advances. Much would depend on whether Bernie Ecclestone was willing to gamble on losing terrestrial exposure for his sport and sponsors.

BBC Sport has commissioned reams of research that shows how valuable it is to the corporation and its public service mission, much of it for a review of listed events legislation subsequently put on hold by the coalition until 2013. It will point to the big prime-time viewing figures for the Six Nations, to Match of the Day audiences defying expectations by continuing to trend upwards and to the fact London 2012 is likely to make as good a case for the licence fee as any number of period dramas. But the danger for its advocates within the BBC is that, at a time when radical surgery is being discussed across the corporation – with "salami slicing" apparently not an option – heartland areas such as news and drama are always likely to win out over sport.

"The BBC are discussing many ideas at present, and it is no secret we are looking at efficiency savings, but at this stage any suggestion of sports rights being cut is pure speculation," a spokesperson said.

In Sky's early days, it used sport as a "battering ram" to attract and lock in subscribers. Today, the effect is more subtle. But its huge profits mean it can keep investing heavily and sport remains hugely important in fuelling growth in new mobile options and driving "event" viewing in 3D on big screens.

With ESPN keen to build volume and ITV showing a renewed appetite for digging deep to expand its sports offering, the BBC could find itself putting uphill to retain the breadth and depth of its portfolio.