A new paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters describes how the oceans have warmed only 0.09°C over the last 55 years, from 1955-2010. Don’t let the red line fool you, read on.

Key Points

A strong positive linear trend in exists in world ocean heat content since 1955

One third of the observed warming occurs in the 700-2000 m layer of the ocean

The warming can only be explained by the increase in atmospheric GHGs

That last bullet point makes me cringe a bit, because I seriously doubt the resolution of this study down to hundredths of degrees seeing the sort of measurements mess we’ve seen in the surface network. Nonetheless, even if the resolution is low, there’s little trend.

At the Hockey Schtick they write about Trenberth’s missing heat:

According to the authors, this resulted in a sea level rise of 0.54 mm per year [only 2.12 inches per century] and corresponds to 0.39 Watts per square meter of the ocean surface. However, the IPCC claims the increase in CO2 from 1955-2010 ‘should’ have warmed the oceans by 1.12 Watts per square meter [5.35*ln(389.78/312) = 1.12 W/m2]. Thus, even if one assumes all ocean warming is due to increased greenhouse gases, the IPCC has exaggerated climate sensitivity to CO2 by a factor of almost 3 times [1.12/0.39]. [This is why Trenberth can’t find his “missing heat“-it never existed in the first place]. In reality, greenhouse gases cannot warm the oceans at all because they radiate infrared which only penetrates the surface of water a few microns to cause evaporative cooling.

Here’s the paper:

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L10603, 5 PP., 2012

doi:10.1029/2012GL051106

S. Levitus – National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

J. I. Antonov -UCAR Project Scientist, National Oceanographic Data Center, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

T. P. Boyer -National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

O. K. Baranova – National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

H. E. Garcia -National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

R. A. Locarnini – National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

A. V. Mishonov -National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

J. R. Reagan – National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

D. Seidov – National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

E. S. Yarosh – National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

M. M. Zweng -National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

Abstract:

We provide updated estimates of the change of ocean heat content and the thermosteric component of sea level change of the 0–700 and 0–2000 m layers of the World Ocean for 1955–2010. Our estimates are based on historical data not previously available, additional modern data, and bathythermograph data corrected for instrumental biases. We have also used Argo data corrected by the Argo DAC if available and used uncorrected Argo data if no corrections were available at the time we downloaded the Argo data. The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–2000 m layer increased by 24.0 ± 1.9 × 1022 J (±2S.E.) corresponding to a rate of 0.39 W m−2 (per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.09°C.

This warming corresponds to a rate of 0.27 W m−2 per unit area of earth’s surface. The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–700 m layer increased by 16.7 ± 1.6 × 1022 J corresponding to a rate of 0.27 W m−2 (per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.18°C. The World Ocean accounts for approximately 93% of the warming of the earth system that has occurred since 1955. The 700–2000 m ocean layer accounted for approximately one-third of the warming of the 0–2000 m layer of the World Ocean. The thermosteric component of sea level trend was 0.54 ± .05 mm yr−1 for the 0–2000 m layer and 0.41 ± .04 mm yr−1 for the 0–700 m layer of the World Ocean for 1955–2010.

Additional figures:

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