Photo by Johann/norden.org/Wikimedia Commons

On October 28, Icelanders will take to the polling booths–a year and a day since the last time–in an atmosphere of great instability, and the polls suggest a major change to the balance of power in parliament, with the Independence Party clearly reeling following the recent “restored honour” scandal that took down the government last week.

A new poll by Fréttablaðið, has the Left Greens and the Independence Party neck and neck for first place with 23% each. This would mean a drop from 29% for the Independence Party since the 2016 elections and a gain of 7% for the Left Greens–up from 15.9%.

The third biggest party in parliament is the Pirate Party with 13.7%, down from 14.5% last year, with the Progressive Party following with 10%.

Bright benefits from government collapse

Bright Future, the party that last week broke up the government coalition seems to be benefitting greatly from its move, with it currently polling at 7%. At the end of August, the party was polling at just 2.8%, far below the 5% limit needed to enter parliament. The other member of the outgoing three party government the Reform Party is set to get 5% of the vote, the same as the Social Democrats.

The biggest surprise of the poll is the strength of the recently formed People’s Party that continues its juggernaut assault on parliament, with the party set to take 11% of the vote.