QB Velocity Rankings: Nick Foles has an objectively strong arm

Arm strength for NFL quarterbacks is typically a relatively subjective assessment. Without hard data, it’s tough to say definitively who has strong arms and who doesn’t.

Personally, I’ve always wondered why they don’t have QBs do a long distance toss or throw for a radar gun at the combine. Perhaps they fear it would hurt the players’ arms? Well, apparently there’ve been speed guns at the combine for years, and Ourlads.com has the results for 2008-2014, which I’ve compiled into the chart below (long, but Control-F-ible).

As you can see, Nick Foles ranks in the 13th-21st range among the 90 quarterbacks who threw at the combine from 2008-2014. Now, this isn’t a perfect dataset for measuring relative arm strength [1], but the results still demonstrate that Nick Foles has upper-end arm strength.

Quarterback Throw Velocities at NFL Combine 2008-2014 Rank QB Velocity Program Year 1 Logan Thomas 60 Virginia Tech 2014 2-7 Stephen Morris 59 Miami 2014 2-7 Tyler Bray 59 Tennessee 2013 2-7 Zac Dysert 59 Miami (OH) 2013 2-7 Brandon Weeden 59 Oklahoma State 2012 2-7 Kirk Cousins 59 Michigan State 2012 2-7 Colin Kaepernick 59 Nevada 2011 8-12 Austin Davis 58 Southern Mississippi 2012 8-12 Ryan Mallett 58 Arkansas 2011 8-12 John Wilson Parker 58 Alabama 2009 8-12 Mike Reilly 58 Central Washington 2009 8-12 Drew Willy 58 Buffalo 2009 13-21 Tom Savage 57 Pittsburgh 2014 13-21 James Vandenberg 57 Iowa 2013 13-21 Nick Foles 57 Arizona 2012 13-21 Chandler Harnish 57 Northern Illinois 2012 13-21 Jordan Jefferson 57 LSU 2012 13-21 Mark Sanchez 57 Southern Cal 2009 13-21 Josh Freeman 57 Kansas State 2009 13-21 Chase Daniels 57 Missouri 2009 13-21 Paul Smith 57 Tulsa 2008 22-33 Blake Bortles 56 Central Florida 2014 22-33 Jimmy Garoppolo 56 Eastern Illinois 2014 22-33 Jeff Mathews 56 Cornell 2014 22-33 Keith Wenning 56 Ball State 2014 22-33 Ryan Nassib 56 Syracuse 2013 22-33 Bradley Sorensen 56 Southern Utah 2013 22-33 Patrick Devlin 56 Delaware 2011 22-33 Andy Dalton 56 TCU 2011 22-33 Cam Newton 56 Auburn 2011 22-33 Levi Brown 56 Troy 2010 22-33 Nate Davis 56 Ball State 2009 22-33 Curtis Painter 56 Purdue 2009 34-42 Jordan Lynch 55 Northern Illinois 2014 34-42 Geno Smith 55 West Virginia 2013 34-42 Tyler Wilson 55 Arkansas 2013 34-42 Russell Wilson 55 Wisconsin 2012 34-42 Casey Keenum 55 Houston 2012 34-42 Scott Tolzien 55 Wisconsin 2011 34-42 Rhett Bomar 55 Sam Houston State 2009 34-42 Joe Flacco 55 Delaware 2008 34-42 Kevin O’Connell 55 San Diego St 2008 43-49 Tajh Boyd 54 Clemson 2014 43-49 Bryn Renner 54 North Carolina 2014 43-49 EJ Manuel 54 Florida State 2013 43-49 Matthew Scott 54 Arizona 2013 43-49 Patrick Witt 54 Yale 2012 43-49 Nathan Enderle 54 Idaho 2011 43-49 Jake Locker 54 Washington 2011 50-59 David Fales 53 San Jose State 2014 50-59 AJ McCarron 53 Alabama 2014 50-59 Dustin Vaughan 53 West Texas A&M 2014 50-59 Landry Jones 53 Oklahoma 2013 50-59 Darron Thomas 53 Oregon 2012 50-59 Tom Brandstetter 53 Fresno State 2009 50-59 Cullen Harper 53 Clemson 2009 50-59 Stephen McGee 53 Texas A & M 2009 50-59 Brian Brohm 53 Louisville 2008 50-59 Chad Henne 53 Michigan 2008 60-71 Collin Klein 52 Kansas State 2013 60-71 Ryan Lindley 52 San Diego State 2012 60-71 Kellen Moore 52 Boise State 2012 60-71 TJ Yates 52 North Carolina 2011 60-71 Max Hall 52 BYU 2010 60-71 Tim Hiller 52 Western Michigan 2010 60-71 Michael Kafka 52 Northwestern 2010 60-71 Zac Robinson 52 Oklahoma St. 2010 60-71 Jevan Snead 52 Mississippi 2010 60-71 Graham Harrell 52 Texas Tech 2009 60-71 Pat White 52 West Virginia 2009 60-71 Erik Ainge 52 Tennessee 2008 72-76 Colby Cameron 51 Louisiana Tech 2013 72-76 Marqueis Gray 51 Minnesota 2013 72-76 Christian Ponder 51 Florida St 2011 72-76 Sean Canfield 51 Oregon St. 2010 72-76 John David Booty 51 Southern Cal 2008 77-84 Connor Shaw 50 South Carolina 2014 77-84 Jacory Harris 50 Miami 2012 77-84 Aaron Corp 50 Richmond 2012 77-84 Ricky Stanzi 50 Iowa 2011 77-84 Tyrod Taylor 50 Va Tech 2011 77-84 Jarrett Brown 50 West Virginia 2010 77-84 John Skelton 50 Fordham 2010 77-84 Matt Flynn 50 LSU 2008 85-88 Michael Glennon 49 North Carolina State 2013 85-88 Dan LeFevour 49 Central Michigan 2010 85-88 Tony Pike 49 Cincinnati 2010 85-88 Josh Johnson 49 San Diego 2008 89 Armanti Edwards 46.5 Appalachian St. 2010 90 Colt Brennan 44 Hawaii 2008

I wanted another way to verify arm strength, so I looked at Football Outsiders’ 2012 game charting data (2013 not out yet) to find his longest throw that year. Only 15 QBs threw a ball farther downfield than Foles (53 yards) all year (and three tied him).

This is an even more imperfect measure than our combine data [2], but it is still additional objective evidence that Foles has a good arm, especially since Foles achieved such a high mark on fewer attempts than most quarterbacks on this list. (Also note how low Peyton Manning ranked. I would be curious to see how he did in 2010 or earlier before his neck injury, and I will be anxious to see how he fared in 2013.)

I think part of the issue with anyone underestimating Foles’ arm strength was that Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick (subjectively) had cannons. I don’t have much hard evidence for either player, but both pass the eye test. People rave about the way the ball jumps out of Vick’s hand (and he did have a 56 yard toss in 2012). And no one ever complained about McNabb’s arm strength; if anything, he was criticized for throwing the ball too hard for his receivers to catch!

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Footnotes

[1] There is some sampling bias here if we’re looking to compare him to all QBs in the league. Not all future pro-QBs go to the combine, and it’s also common for a few prospects each year to attend without throwing. And those prospects also often tend to be the most highly rated prospects, and so we can assume that they would be likelier than normal to have strong arms. (On the other hand, maybe some don’t throw because they want to hide weak arms?)

Another issue is that the values seem off. Why is Armani Edwards’ velocity given with a decimal while the others’ are not? And was Colt Brennan’s maximum velocity seriously 16 mph slower than Logan Thomas’. A 44 mph max velocity implies he can throw the ball about 45 yards max (rough estimate based on playing around with a projectile motion calculator). Seriously? I tried to check this by watching Colt Brennan highlight videos on YouTube and saw zero tosses exceeding 40 yards in 4 minutes of watching. Is that right?

[2]

Incompletions are marked based on where the ball lands and completions are marked where it’s caught so if a quarterback throws a ball that’s caught, it will have a shorter reported distance than the same ball that is not caught and travels a little farther before hitting the ground. You’ll get more distance throwing straight down the middle as opposed to down the sideline The starting point is the line of scrimmage as opposed to the spot where the QB released the ball. Not every QB unleashes a max distance throw each year Wind/weather may help some and hurt others

Regardless, these flaws affect all QBs about the same, so over such a large sample, it should still provide a reasonable approximation of arm strength.