We had some real news in the Democratic presidential nomination race on Tuesday: By hitting 2 percent in a national poll, Julián Castro became the 10th, and perhaps final, candidate to qualify for the September debate. In fact, it put him into the October debate as well, since the Democratic National Committee rules have a lower floor for October than September (the same requirements, but extra time to meet them).

We could easily get one more debate invite: Tom Steyer needs to hit 2 percent in one more poll to qualify, and he’ll probably get that if there’s an early-state poll released by the Aug. 28 deadline, since Steyer appears to be well over that threshold in the early states thanks to a major advertising blitz. It’s also possible, but unlikely, that Tulsi Gabbard could still get two more 2 percent polls.

If you believe that the contest is a stable one, with Joe Biden in the clear lead and Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and perhaps Kamala Harris the only other viable candidates, then Castro’s fate doesn’t matter much. But if you believe (as I do) that early polls still aren’t especially predictive — then this is in fact a pretty big deal. It also nicely sets up a set of questions to focus on going into the next stretch of the campaign:

Will we have one or two debates? The D.N.C. has set 10 candidates as the single-debate limit. Will they split a 10-candidate field anyway? If there are exactly 11, will they squeeze them all in? This one is very much a case of the party vs. the media. For the party, holding the stage for an extra night is probably a plus. But a lot of reporters don’t like it because they’re among the small set of people who have to actually watch the things from beginning to end (and the even smaller set of people who also watch a lot of the candidates’ appearances, and therefore are already tired of their recycled catchphrases, jokes and inspirational riffs). It’s also easier to handle the story line of a single debate, with the (polling) leaders taking one another on directly. The candidates with a real stake in this are those who qualified and are lagging in the polls: Castro, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke and Cory Booker would appreciate getting the extra time a small debate would offer.

Can the others break through at all? There’s a good chance that the D.N.C. is effectively winnowing out the dozen or so candidates who fail to qualify. That goes double if the various other candidate forums start freezing out the nonqualifiers. That hasn’t been the case so far — for example, 18 candidates are scheduled to speak to the Iowa Federation of Labor, and a mix of qualifying and nonqualifying candidates appeared at the Frank LaMere Native American Presidential Forum this week. However, the upcoming CNN climate forum is extending invitations only to September debate qualifiers. It’s unlikely that anyone who is frozen out by TV and other major media could rally at all, with the possible exception of Steyer, who can buy attention.