Over the last two pieces, we have covered a lot of ground when considering how to build and value a bullpen in dynasty and long-term keeper formats. In part one, we marveled at the great Arthur Rhodes while acknowledging the volatility in the new normal. In part two, we did a data dive to underscore the volatility and limited upside non-closer relievers can bring to the team. Ian, Keaton, and Patrick took some time on the TDG pod to discuss this topic and maybe you should give it a listen.

Alright, enough meta. In part three, we’re talking about true value relievers bring to the table.

A Game of Fire and Ice

In leagues where teams are quickly pointing the finger for the heavy reliever strategy, managers point to the ratios strategy. In other words, we’re banking on the belief that ERA, WHIP, and K/9 would be better than your run of the mill SP4. That’s largely accepted as a truth. However, lets compare the rations of the composite closer to the composite non-closer. Please note, I used data through 5/2/2018 from our Fantrax TDGx2 league.

Composite of Top 30 Closers of 2018

(Relievers with 3 saves or more) IP 13 Total Games Appeared 31 ERA / FIP / SIERA 2.99 / 3.09 / 3.02 K/9 10.96 BB/9 3.28 Site Wide Ownership % 86.4%

Composite of Top 30 Non-Closers of 2018

(Relievers with 3 saves or less, sorted by WAR) IP 15 Total Games Appeared 30 ERA / FIP / SIERA 2.17 / 2.13 / 2.61 K/9 10.58 BB/9 2.33 Site Wide Ownership % 29.5%

Wow. I want to say that I half expected some differences, but this is even surprising to me. In case you can’t tell by the stark contrast in numbers, let me break it down for you in words. The top 30 non-closers pitch more innings in less games, have better peripherals, strike out just as many players, walk less, and are less owned by a wide margin. You may also want to consider noted super human and non-closer Josh Hader was placed in the Top 30 closers bin. Imagine how much different it would be if he was put in with the non-closers.

So with that said, here are the names of some criminally under owned players for your consideration.

Paul Sewald, NYM

I am convinced this guy suffers from boring name syndrome. Nothing gives me sparks when I look at this dude. He looks like he llke a B-rate Neal McDonough. Just like Neal McDonough, you know him, you appreciate him when he’s around, you quickly forget about him, and then some guy on the internet spends 20 minutes reading his reference page. Sewald, like McDonough, is criminally underrated and a complete grinder. Even though he’s 3% owned in Fantrax, he’s pitched more innings than any of the top 30 closers (save Josh Hader), he owns a respectable 10.26 K/9, a very healthy 1.09 BB/9, and is his DRA (2.01) more than a full run lower than his ERA. Maybe stop pitching junk reliever AJ Ramos and throw Sewald into the late innings?

Adam Cimber, SDP

Full disclosure. Ben Diamond and I own him in TDGx2. With 19.1 IP, he’s a high usage reliever that continues to K at a high rate. No, not Josh Hader rates. OK? Not everyone needs to be Josh Hader. Still, he’s another guy that has a FIP a run below his ERA, walks 1.89 BB/9, and his BABIP seems to be at a perfectly reasonable .318. Yet somehow, he’s 13% owned. For what? So some schmuck owner can chase saves with 88% owned and sure-to-be-replaced soon Arodys Vizcaino? No thanks. Give me the better player every day and twice on Sunday (pending double header).

See you next week.