Hopes for progress at UN talks on ending the war in Yemen have been overshadowed by an attack by Houthi rebels that killed scores of troops of the Saudi-led coalition, including two senior commanders, just hours before a planned ceasefire.

Representatives of the Yemeni government and the Houthis are scheduled to meet in Switzerland on Tuesday in what has been billed as a serious and perhaps a last-ditch effort to end a conflict that has claimed nearly 6,000 lives and represents a massive humanitarian disaster in the Arab world’s poorest country.



But confidence about a truce to mark the negotiations was dented on Monday by an attack on the headquarters of the Arab forces backing the Yemeni president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, whose Houthi enemies are fighting alongside forces loyal to the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The Houthis released video footage of a missile strike they claimed had killed 152 enemy troops in the Bāb al-Mandab area of south-west Yemen. Confirmed fatalities included the Saudi Col Abdullah al-Sahyan, and Sultan al-Kitbi, a senior Emirati officer. Sahyan was hailed on Saudi social media as a national hero.

The rebels said they had caused heavy losses in lives and equipment, including Apache helicopters. Yemeni media later reported Saudi missiles being fired in the Taiz area while the Saudis announced the deployment of forces on the border with Yemen.



The UN envoy for Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, had called for an open-ended ceasefire from Monday night – though it was unclear whether it would now come into force.

Yemen’s president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Photograph: Stringer/Reuters

The Mauritanian diplomat is looking for other confidence-building measures including releasing prisoners and facilitating the delivery of humanitarian supplies. Previous attempts to agree ceasefires have been preceded by attacks by both sides.

The negotiations are being held at an undisclosed Swiss location and under a news blackout that the UN says is designed to maximise the chances of success. A previous round of talks last June collapsed.



Hadi, backed by the Saudis, is demanding the strict implementation of a UN resolution calling on the Houthis to return weapons seized from the state and withdraw from territory captured over the past year, including the capital Sana’a. The Houthis want broader negotiations on the country’s political future.



The Houthis, who adhere to a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism, and Saleh’s forces have separate delegations, giving rise to hopes that they can be prised apart to help secure a deal.

But the Saudis and Emiratis, the leading members of the coalition, are not at the table – a potential weakness. Another is Hadi’s ability to deliver on an agreement, diplomats say.

“I don’t see see the serious possibility of an agreement,” said Ibrahim Freihat of the Brookings Doha centre. “The two parties are not on the same page and there is little common ground as a starting point. There is still a stalemate on the ground.”

Saudi Arabia has faced mounting criticism of the civilian casualties caused by its air strikes, as have its backers and arms suppliers – the US and Britain. The Saudis portray the Houthis as allies of Iran, their bitter regional rival, and insist their only goal is to restore Hadi’s government.



Focus on the more familiar crisis in Syria, and difficulties of access for journalists have meant that coverage of the Yemen conflict has been limited in western media.

But aid agencies warn that Yemen is one of the world’s worst crises and has deteriorated rapidly. Yemen after five months looks like Syria after five years, according to the International Red Cross.

Much of the country on the brink of famine, with 84% of the population – more than 21 million people – in need of aid. More than 20 million people cannot find clean water to drink.



Saudi Arabia is insisting on strict implementation of UN resolution 2216 and deeply mistrusts the Houthis. “Houthi forces must adhere to to the ceasefire,” said the Saudi analyst Mohammed al-Yayha. “Unfortunately, they have a track record of dishonouring their commitments.”



Critics counter that demands for disarmament and withdrawal will have to be interpreted flexibly if a deal is to be done since the original resolution was too favourable to Riyadh. Another complication is the Saudis’ fear of Iran’s influence, though that seems exaggerated to independent observers.

Peter Salisbury, a Yemen expert at Chatham House, said: “These talks turn the light on. Last time they were in Geneva the Yemeni parties wouldn’t even sit in the same room. It’s the very first step in a long series of events.”

Another alarming issue is the growth of al-Qaida and more recently of Isis.

“Everything in this situation that could have got worse has got worse,” said Adam Baron of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“The humanitarian crisis is worse than ever. These talks are a tremendous opportunity, but it remains to be seen whether the parties will take it. It may be the last opportunity to save Yemen from heading into a downward spiral of the kind we’ve seen in Syria, Iraq and Libya.”