Shinzo Abe's smile is on display as a woman in Tokyo walks past election posters for Japan's snap election. Credit:Reuters The latest opinion polls show that the conservative LDP and its partner, Komeito, are poised for a landslide victory. Some newspapers, including the left-leaning Asahi Shimbun, are even predicting that the LDP could increase its showing in the 475-seat lower house from 294 to as many as 317 seats, giving it the two-thirds supermajority it needs to govern alone. However, turnout is expected to be low. "But the problem is after the big win," Mr Osaka said. "To tell the truth, the situation won't change dramatically. The economy will be weak as before." Mr Abe called the election essentially as a referendum on his economic policies, after official statistics showed Japan had tipped back into recession despite his efforts to stimulate growth with much easier monetary policy and a huge injection of government spending. Trickier structural reforms are still coming. Mr Abe also postponed an unpopular proposed increase in the consumption tax, by two percentage points to 10 per cent. The three-point increase in April, the first in 17 years, has been blamed for the sudden slowdown in growth.

People who said the return to recession showed that Abenomics had been a failure were mistaken, Etsuro Honda, an outside economic adviser to Abe, said. He has been a leading proponent of Abe's pro-growth policies and had argued against the second tax increase. "Previous governments were not brave enough to conduct bold and aggressive policies," Mr Honda, an economics professor at Shizuoka University, said. He has popularised the English catchphrase "Tina" - "There is no alternative" - in the prime minister's office, which is reflected in the LDP's campaign slogan: "This road is the only road." The effects of Abenomics would be felt gradually, he said. A huge cash injection from the Bank of Japan at the end of October would take six to eight months to filter through to the real economy, while the structural reforms could take 10 years to work. "But there is no other way to get out of deflation. The fundamental problem is with people's mindset," Honda said. After 15 years in a deflationary spiral, Japanese people are not used to prices going up. That means they suffered from "sticker shock" as the first consumption tax increase took effect. Compounding that shock, real wages have been falling, making things seem even more expensive.

"Whenever I go to the cashier, I find the price on the bill so high that makes me think there might be something wrong," Kayoko Kamiya, a 43-year-old housewife with small children, said as she watched them at a playground in Shinagawa, a central district in Tokyo. "It may be because we have a bigger family, but still." But she's not so wild either about the idea of delaying the tax hike and kicking Japan's fiscal can down the road. "Well, we are only shifting the burden to my children, so it's tricky," she said. "Raising the tax earlier would make things at least easier later. I feel unsure if it's right that the current generation doesn't take care of the debt." Beyond the statistics, it is Mr Abe's willingness to take bold steps that sets him apart, said Jesper Koll, managing director of research at J P Morgan in Tokyo, who has lived in Japan for almost 30 years. "The reason Abe is popular is because he's a leader. He makes decisions," Mr Koll said, adding that Mr Abe's decisiveness was in stark contrast with prime ministers past. "He's the only guy they can trust to ensure that Japan doesn't become a colony of China."

Washington Post