Gusty winds will make it feel as cold as the low teens to low 20s in New Jersey this week. (AccuWeather)

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UPDATE WEDNESDAY: Latest forecast for potential weekend snow. Expect strong wind gusts today.

Get ready to say goodbye to those unseasonably warm temperatures and pesky rain showers that have dominated New Jersey's weather pattern during the past few weeks.

Forecasters say it's finally going to feel like winter, at least for the next several days, with cold Arctic air drifting down from Canada on Wednesday and gusty winds whipping around. Add to the mix: a potential snowstorm this weekend.

Despite what you may have seen on your social media feeds and iPhone weather app the past two days, the weekend snowstorm is not a lock for New Jersey, according to local weather forecasters.

Computer guidance models have been highly inconsistent, with some projecting a light coating of snow in the southern half of the Garden State and others hinting Monday at substantial snow across most of the state.



In the latest model runs, however, most are now projecting no more than 2 to 3 inches of snow this weekend.

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In a run early Tuesday, the American GFS guidance model is projecting only light snow in southern New Jersey this Sunday, but heavy snow in northern New England and parts of Virginia and western North Carolina. (WeatherBell Analytics)

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Meteorologists stress it's far too early for any forecasters to get a good handle on our weekend snow probability, especially with the computer models being so far apart on a consensus and different pieces of energy moving around in the atmosphere.

"Right now it looks like a sizable storm is focused mostly south (of New Jersey) and we're on the fringes of seeing some light snow," said Sean Rowland, a meteorologist at the WeatherWorks forecasting company, based in Warren County.

"There's a potential for the system to move north" and for New Jersey to get more steady snow, Rowland said. However, as of early Tuesday afternoon, it appears the Mid-Atlantic region seems to be the main target of the weekend storm system.

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This is one storm scenario being watched by AccuWeather forecasters.

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Other snow scenarios

Forecasters from AccuWeather say they are watching the potential for two different storm systems to move toward our region this weekend -- one from the Great Lakes area and one from the southwestern United States.

They say there's a possibility the two systems could merge into one, and if that happens, it would send a big swath of snow and ice across the Ohio Valley to Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Under that scenario, North Jersey would get heavy snow and South Jersey would get a wintry mix, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

In its latest forecast discussion, the National Weather Service's regional office in New Jersey says the prospect of snow this weekend is fairly uncertain, but for now the "potential for accumulating snow exists for Saturday night and Sunday."

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Under this scenario, northern sections of New Jersey would get heavy snow this weekend. (AccuWeather)

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Cold and blustery

One thing that's more certain is the forecast for Wednesday, which will start out on the mild side for January, with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s in the morning and early afternoon.

However, temperatures will steadily drop during the late afternoon and evening, dipping down to the low 30s, even in South Jersey. Strong winds -- gusting as high as 35 mph to 39 mph -- will make it feel about 10 degrees colder, the National Weather Service said.

On Thursday, temperatures will be stuck in the low 30s in North Jersey and the mid-30s in South Jersey, and winds will continue to be gusty.

Forecasters say morning lows on Thursday and Friday will be dropping down to the mid-20s to around 30 degrees, and Friday night's lows will dip as low as the teens to low 20s.

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Expect a windy Wednesday as gusts get up to 45mph, courtesy of a strengthening storm over northern New England. #abc7ny pic.twitter.com/ixpTjF8t7d — Jeff Smith (@JeffSmithABC7) January 8, 2019

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Although there's been a lot of buzz about pieces of the polar vortex invading our region, bringing extremely frigid temperatures, weather experts say this is likely to happen later this month.

The cold air that is on the way this week is not directly related to the polar vortex.

"This is just a quick cold snap that is part of the pattern changing overall," said Steven DiMartino, a meteorologist at Weather Concierge and NY NJ PA Weather Inc. "The tropospheric polar vortex, though, is too far north to be directly connected, but the major stratospheric warming is behind the pattern changing."

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January thunder?

Although most of the New Jersey region is quiet now, some scattered showers -- and possible thunderstorms -- could move across the state Tuesday night into the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, forecasters said.

"So don't be too surprised if you hear a crack of thunder around midnight!" the National Weather Service noted in a Tweet.

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Thunder in January? It's possible tonight as an energetic disturbance sends a line of showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm through our area. So don't be too surprised if you hear a crack of thunder around midnight! #NJwx #PAwx #DEwx #MDwx pic.twitter.com/NTcCoN6oNq — NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) January 8, 2019

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Arctic air is on the way for parts of the Northeast with morning lows in the low teens and single digits for many. pic.twitter.com/qxP7zh3QEE — WeatherBELL (@weatherbell) January 8, 2019

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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.

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