A new poll shows Obama placing some distance between himself and his rivals. Battleground Poll: As GOP race takes toll, Obama inches up

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll reveals the prolonged nominating battle is taking a toll on the GOP candidates and finds the president’s standing significantly improved from late last year.

President Barack Obama’s approval rating is 53 percent, up 9 percentage points in four months. Matched up against his Republican opponents, he leads Mitt Romney by 10 points (53-43) and Rick Santorum by 11 (53-42). Even against a generic, unnamed Republican untarnished by attacks, Obama is up 5 percentage points. In November, he was tied.


“We’ve not been talking about which would do a better job of running against Obama. We’ve been talking about who is the most or who is the least conservative,” said Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll. “That is a problem for Republicans.”

Get full poll results and analysis.

A third of Americans believe the country is on the right track — disconcertingly low for a president eight months before an election. Yet that figure is twice the number who believed it in November.

Romney is bloodied after nine contests, five of which he has lost. Only 33 percent of independents view him favorably, compared with 51 percent who see him in an unfavorable light. In a head-to-head match-up against Obama among independents, Romney now trails 49 percent to 37 percent.

Among Republican voters nationally, Santorum narrowly edges out Romney, 36 percent to 34 percent. Newt Gingrich is a distant third with 13 percent, and Ron Paul gets only 7 percent.

Santorum’s slight advantage is striking because Romney holds significant leads over the former Pennsylvania senator among likely primary voters on which of the four remaining candidates would best handle jobs (14 percentage points), the economy (19) and balancing the budget (21). Of five areas tested, Santorum leads Romney only on social issues.

Among independents, Santorum fares better than Romney: He is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 32 percent. But he remains largely undefined: 28 percent of independents either have no opinion of the ex-senator or have never heard of him. Even among Republicans, that number is 17 percent.

Forty percent of Republicans say Romney has run the most negative campaign, 10 times more than name Santorum. Gingrich is second to Romney on the question of who has run the nastiest operation.

After keeping some distance from the tea party for much of past year, Romney campaigned at a tea party rally in Milford, Mich., on Thursday night. It’s an approach that makes sense to win the primaries in Michigan and Arizona on Tuesday, but it could have repercussions if he is the nominee: Just one-quarter of all voters say they identify with the movement, while three-quarters do not. And 53 percent “strongly” distance themselves from the tea party.

“I don’t think it’s set in stone, but Romney is on the verge of getting to be disqualified — particularly among women and independent voters — in a way that poses a very, very serious challenge for the Republican Party,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “And he’s not done yet: He’s got a continuing struggle for the rest of the electorate to watch.”

Goeas warned against reading too much into one poll, calling this “a transitional period” in the race. He argues that the eventual nominee will bring many independents back into the fold by tailoring his message and shifting from an inward to an outward focus.

“This is normal and to be expected during this period of time when you have an ongoing primary … and an incumbent with no challenge,” he said.

The POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted from Feb. 19–22 by The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners. The nationwide telephone survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Despite his improved standing, Obama remains under water on the three issues most important to voters: 51 percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, 50 percent on jobs and 59 percent on government spending and the budget deficit.

But even among voters who name jobs and the economy as the issue they’re most concerned about, Obama leads his would-be Republican rivals.

Democrats say they are more likely to vote for him now than they did last year, and he maintains a huge reserve of goodwill: Three-quarters of Americans continue to like the president personally — 59 percent strongly so.

While Democrats lost women voters in the 2010 midterm election, Obama now carries them by 12 percentage points against a generic Republican. Among white women, Obama leads Romney 51 percent to 45 percent. It’s a strong base to build from, according to Lake.

“Both a combination of the president’s positives and the Republicans’ negatives have brought women back in very strong form,” said Lake.

In general, Democrats have opened leads over Republicans on key areas in November. Almost six in 10 likely voters say Democrats will better stand up for the middle class, a significant number since 54 percent of those surveyed consider themselves part of it.

After congressional Republicans bungled and then lost the payroll tax extension fight at the end of the year, Democrats now claim a 4-percentage-point edge on which party is best to handle taxes — traditionally a key advantage for Republicans in general elections. Democrats can also be heartened by their 9-point advantage on Social Security and Medicare and a 5-point lead on which party will better handle health care.

One warning sign for Democrats hoping to win back control of the House: Obama’s improved standing is not generating support for his party on the generic congressional ballot. Democrats statistically tie Republicans 46 percent to 45 percent, with approval of Congress overall holding steady at a dismal 12 percent.

The two parties are even, at 46 percent, on which “shares your values.” Goeas notes that Republicans have a 9-point advantage on this question among white women and a 7-point edge among independents. Unmarried voters say by 71 percent to 22 percent that Democrats better represent their values.

Lake noted that the enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans has almost disappeared, as 92 percent of Democrats approve of Obama and 72 percent say they’re likely to vote in November.

“There’s no dissension in the Democratic ranks,” she said.

Fifty-six percent of Republicans think Romney is the most electable candidate, double the percentage for Santorum and up 8 points from the November Battleground poll.

Goeas argued that Obama remains weak, considering the spate of positive economic news and the GOP field’s internecine warfare. He points to the “dark cloud” that hangs over Obama with the possibility of international instability and rising gas prices.

“He has been able to get his footing on some issues. He hasn’t turned it around completely,” Goeas said. “But certainly the big point for Republicans here: We need to get this nomination process over. We need to get a nominee, and we need to start moving towards and prosecuting the campaign that we would do a better job of moving the country forward.”

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated Romney's level of support among independents when matched head-to-head with President Obama. Romney loses independents 37 percent to 49 percent against the president.

CORRECTION: Corrected by: Leigh Munsil @ 02/27/2012 08:26 PM Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated Romney's level of support among independents when matched head-to-head with President Obama. Romney loses independents 37 percent to 49 percent against the president.