If Halloween costumes and masks predict the presidential election, we’re probably looking at U.S. President Donald Trump . Say hello to the Halloween costume index and its unscientific accuracy in predicting the next U.S. president.

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in national polls, but the less scientific yet oddly “accurate” Spirit Halloween Presidential Index puts Trump in the lead over Clinton by a margin of 10 percent. Still feeling skeptical?

Costume mask sales have supposedly predicted the winner in the 1996 election of Bill Clinton, the election of George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, and Barack Obama’s election in 2008, according to the costume retailer.

At face value then, the index might seem legit. But questions occur: Where are these sales happening? Which demographic is making the purchases? And are these numbers purposefully manipulated for the sake of clever marketing? We simply don’t know.

There have, of course, been other election predictors that are just as accurate, starting with pollsters like Gallup and an American University professor with a prediction streak going back to 1984. National polls from organizations such as Quinnipiac, Reuters, ORC International, and various news outlets including CNN, ABC, Fox News and CBS are also considered credible and highly regarded.

Radio host and Trump supporter Bill Mitchell, however, is convinced that costume sales are still the best predictor for the election. And if there’s a winner to be determined by rubber masks, it’s gotta be Trump.

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/789640023465463808

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/789647564983373826

Exactly. Just one more data point, folks.

That didn’t stop New York Times’ polls reporter Nate Cohn from poking a little fun at Mitchell and the whole silly concept of mask sales predictions.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/790311588913745920

To which, Mitchell responded with a stern assertion: “100% accurate since 1980.”

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/790628616665174016

Who’s buying the accuracy of the index? The skeptics spoke out and mocked Mitchell and laughed off the whole idea that sales of Halloween masks could determine the presidential election.

https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/790062901830836224

https://twitter.com/sugarbuzz12/status/789818211537518592

https://twitter.com/mweaverpdx/status/789705100306460672

https://twitter.com/josh_beeman/status/789861482464890881

https://twitter.com/SusanSenator/status/790330310089183232

Still, even if mask sales don’t determine a winner in the presidential election, who do you think has a better mask for Halloween — Clinton or Trump? Tell us in the comments.

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Email: luis.gomez@sduniontribune.com

Twitter: @RunGomez

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