“DEADLINES AND COMMITMENTS (AND DECISIONS)”

The Dallas Mavericks are in the final few days leading up to Thursday's NBA Draft. And this pre-draft week will be filled with more major deadlines and significant decisions than usual, ones that may shape the Mavs future for years. Let's look at a few key items for the week ahead.

WINNING THE DRAFT

The Mavs are high in the draft order and have lots of cap room. Together that creates lots of talk and plenty of roster-building possibilities ahead.

On top of that, owner Mark Cuban's public pronouncement in May (via DallasBasketball.com's Dalton Trigg) that the Mavs are open to trading their pick (which has undoubtedly been taken way farther than he meant) has led to a buzz of trade ideas swirling around the team. Such ideas include ones with them moving up (or down) in the draft, some have them swapping some of that cap room for a talented player or a valuable pick, and more.

And make no mistake about it - while it was really an idle comment to make, ultimately it was a good note to have broadcast to the NBA world. Cuban didn't really say (and likely had no idea then) as to what specific type of deal they might like to chase, if any, but the very fact that the world knows the Mavs might be willing to deal now has them on the list for any team that might look for a trade.

All that is fun to talk about. Because, who knows?

But the real task at hand is to win the draft, and that comes not by picking first or even early, but by "Winning The Evaluation" on the available players in this draft, a game they've too often shirked or avoided entirely under the Cuban regime.

Winning may not be as easy as it looks, either. Obviously, in picking fifth, the Mavs are almost certain to have a chance to pick an elite young talent in this loaded group, no matter which four are picked before they get their turn. And getting a stud, not a dud, is 90 percent of what's needed.

But there will be way more to it than that.

When the Mavs pick at 5, it's all but certain that DeAndre Ayton will already be gone. Almost every NBA observer expects he will be taken first, in fact, and Mavs sources have been telling DBcom for weeks that he'll be atop their own Big Board.

But after that, opinions vary widely as to which players will (and should) be taken second, third, and fourth. In fact, I'm seeing as many as seven other players variously predicted in one of those slots by really smart NBA people (to be specific: Bagley, Bamba, Carter, Doncic, Jackson, Porter, and Young) – the answer all depending on who is answering the question, and sometimes even the day it's being asked.

We've reported for quite some time how much Dallas likes Doncic. (Fish and Woj stuff on that here.) But ... when opinions on player rankings are so varied, it tells us: (1) there very well might be a major mistake (or three) in evaluation, before all is said and done, (2) something unexpected is likely to happen in this draft, and (3) one possibility is that there may be a sizable group of really good players with almost the very same likelihood of NBA success – in which case, if a team has done the homework to be dead solid certain that they are staring at three or four players of the same ability level when it comes their turn to pick, they can be open to a trade down a couple slots for extra valuable assets.

The reverse is true as well. If one of the teams picking ahead of the Mavs thinks “these guys are all about the same” and the Mavs have done the work to be certain that there is a significant advantage of having one over the other, there might be opportunity to move up for way more talent at a relatively-bargain cost.

But while there is value in assembling a Big Board (as our Matt Galatzan has done nicely here), it's not sufficient to simply rank the possible picks from 1 to 8, say. It's also essential to know how much difference in value there is between each of those rungs, and what that value should look like in relation to a possible trade with each possible team. That requires expertise on multiple levels, not only in evaluating, but also in figuring out what you might want and how to get it, if the situation arises.

And if negotiations happen, there also needs to be some dexterity and craftiness, like an expert gambler playing cards - the ability to keep your cards unseen and mysterious, to get the other guy to offer what you want at a bargain price, coupled with the street-smarts of knowing when to say "no" and walk away.

If it sounds like a lot of expert skill is needed, that's true.

But to be elite, you have to be the best. If the Mavs are going to be an elite team again, they have to out-evaluate (and maybe out-negotiate) their 29 competitors. Sometimes “we got a good one” is all that was ever available at the right price, and you take that win and go home, but other times there may be more to be had - - for the ones who have the right skills.

HOW CAN THE MAVS WIN IF THERE'S NO DESIRABLE DRAFT TRADE TO BE HAD?

So is "winning" all about hoping to luck into finding some sucker team, who will fall for a slick trade deal? Not necessarily.

It you're good enough, it might not be about a trade at all. Consider ....

In the 2009 Draft, Blake Griffin was picked first and James Harden was picked third, and both have been All-Stars multiple times. But also picked in the top six were names like Thabeet, Evans, Rubio, and Flynn.

Sitting at 7, the Warriors simply waited their turn, and when they picked, they nailed it. Stephen Curry. No trade, nothing fancy, they just got the evaluation right, sat tight, and picked the right guy.

In the 2011 Draft, Kyrie Irving was picked first and Kemba Walker was picked ninth, and both have been All-Stars multiple times. Also picked in the top 10 were very solid players like Tristan Thompson and Jonas Valanciunas, and some not-so-hot ones like Williams, Kanter, Vesely, Biyombo, Knight, and Fredette.

Sitting at 11, the Warriors simply waited their turn, and when they picked, they nailed it. Klay Thompson. No trade, nothing fancy, they just got the evaluation right, sat tight, and picked the right guy.

In the 2012 Draft, Anthony Davis was picked first and Damian Lillard was picked sixth, and both have been All-Stars multiple times. In the first round were some very solid players, and plenty of not-so-hot ones too.

At 35, the Warriors simply waited their turn, and when they picked, they nailed it. Draymond Green. No trade, nothing fancy, they just got the evaluation right, sat tight, and picked the right guy.

Of note, in that draft the Mavs slickly did a trade to turn pick No. 17 into three picks, all of them before Green was taken. Great move, except for the most important part -- the player evaluation. They missed on figuring out who to pick, and blew it. The Warriors had the better evaluation and got the All-Star.

Curry, Thompson, and Green have been the core of the Warriors' rise. It didn't take them doing a single trade to get any of them. They simply got the evaluation right.

"Winning The Evaluation" is the key. And picking 5th in a loaded draft like this one, if you know who to get, the talent will certainly be there to be had.

THE DOUBLE-DEADLINE WEEK

With the draft on Thursday, the Mavs have a deadline of sorts, as they have to have all the evaluations and rankings figured out expertly by then. And then they have to make the right pick.

But due to a new rule added in the 2017 CBA, they have another deadline before then.

At the moment, the Mavs have $14M of cap room available. This means that, in an NBA world where cap room is lacking, the Mavs could make a trade that effectively "sells" that $14M of cap room to another team, by taking back in trade $14M more in salary than they send away. In such a deal, they would negotiate to get extra talent or draft picks to compensate for the major cap help being provided.

In fact, the Mavs now have more room to offer than any other team, by a fairly wide margin. The next three teams would be Chicago (about $9M), Phoenix (about $6.5M), and Indiana (about ($5.5M). So for a team needing a lot of help, the Mavs are the team to see.

How much would cap room like that be worth, in picks, talent, or both? No one can say. For each team, it comes down to their perception of need, their sense of urgency, and their ability to negotiate.

However, once the draft begins, huge chunks of cap room will vanish. The new rule says that when a team makes a first-round pick in the draft, that team's salary cap will be IMMEDIATELY charged 120 percent of the rookie scale salary he is due to receive, until he is signed.

As a result, the Mavs will only have about $8.5M in cap room left after picking 5th. (Chicago should still be second, but down to around $4.5M, and Indy third at around $3.5M. Phoenix will have no cap room left at all after picking first.)

So if the Mavs want to reap the benefit of selling $14M of cap room, and if another team wants to reap the benefit of grabbing that $14M in cap savings before it's gone, it has to be done before pre-draft trades are shut off on Thursday afternoon.

There is another window when cap room -- perhaps even more -- could be available, and that would be in July after rosters roll into a new NBA year. Indeed, the Mavs may end up with as much as $25M in room then, depending on decisions they make on their own free agents as to whether or not to retain Bird rights holds, what to do about team options and non-guaranteed contracts, and so on.

But July adds several obstacles for the team trying to find cap room to buy, the biggest being that a team that wanted a 2018 draft pick for its room likely wanted that pick in hand before the draft, and not in July. In addition, theoretical cap room can get waylaid in July by the cost of cap holds for Bird rights, the option for teams to spend it on free agents rather than sell it to another team, and the possibility that some teams may prefer to work as over-cap teams and get the full $8.6M MLE and $3.4M BAE (which effectively eliminates them from being able to offer much cap room help in trade).

The Mavs understand the shifting math here. Other teams do, too. And with a Thursday afternoon deadline to get what you can while you have a chance, there may be some urgency this week to do a deal before the opportunity goes away. We never can be sure if a deal will happen, but we can be sure that the clock is ticking on the $14 million.