OTTAWA—Unprecedented and fast-moving.

But for Canada, COVID-19 didn’t come out of the blue. The country had weeks of warning as the virus first struck China, then ravaged Italy.

Politicians here could see the kind of restrictions needed to contain the virus, the need to stockpile personal protective equipment and ventilators, the measures required to prepare the health-care system, the necessity of quarantines on travellers arriving from abroad. And they could see the terrible impacts if any of those responses were delayed.

Once the initial crisis is over, there will be tough questions asked of the government: Were Canada’s borders left open too long? Was there enough stockpiling of equipment? Why was the introduction of restrictions done in patchwork fashion? Why were isolation rules for returning travellers initially so lax?

The Star is assessing the performance of the federal government in several key areas as Ottawa grapples with the health and economic fallout of the virus. Here’s what we found:

Public health

The challenge: “Flattening the curve” — slowing the rate of new COVID-19 infections — is the refrain the entire world is singing in unison. Slowing that spread gives health-care systems with limited life-saving resources — such as respirators and hospital beds in intensive-care units — a fighting chance to treat COVID-19 patients without being overwhelmed. In Canada, top public health officials have taken to talk of “planking” or “crushing” the curve.

What other countries did: Taiwan was quick to impose strict health measures to track people infected with the virus, and started screening travellers from China on Dec. 31, according to a Foreign Policy Magazine report. By April 16, the country of 24 million people had fewer than 400 confirmed cases, and just six deaths.

South Korea, was hit with a surge of cases in February but got the outbreak under control. This success has been widely attributed to the country’s aggressive testing to track infections, and quarantining people with the virus.

Canada’s response: Since the first Canadian was infected in January, governments across the country have stepped up measures to slow the spread. At first there were advisories at airports to report symptoms; now non-essential visitors are banned and all arriving Canadians face hefty fines and even jail time if they don’t quarantine for 14 days. Many businesses are closed and non-essential workers are told to stay home and avoid close contact with people they don’t live with.

Assessment: The curve is flattening, but it hasn’t been crushed. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto, said Canada is making progress but can’t let up on social distancing and isolation measures that slow the virus’s spread.

“Rather than flooding the health-care system, we’re having a steady stream into the health-care system and that can build up over time,” he said. “We want to start to really see fewer new cases … day after day after day.

“Flattening is just the first step.”

Stockpiling

The challenge: Getting enough stuff. With a surge of sick people comes a spike in needed equipment to treat them. From surgical masks and medical gowns to testing chemicals and ventilator machines, obtaining enough gear to treat infected people is key in the pandemic fight.

What other countries did: In China, where the virus emerged in December, the government rushed construction of new hospitals as existing resources were strained. In Italy, doctors had to leave some patients struggling to breathe — and even to die — as they rationed access to the country’s supply of ventilators.

Around the world, countries raced for supplies as their stockpiles dwindled. This week, Public Services and Procurement Minister Anita Anand described this as a “hypercompetitive” global scramble.

Canada’s response: As the number of COVID-19 cases grew, alarm bells starting ringing about supplies of protective gear like masks. The premiers of Quebec and Ontario warned in late March that they were mere days from running out. With the federal emergency stockpile dwindling, Ottawa committed $2 billion to buy whatever supplies it could. It signed contracts to buy tens of millions of masks, millions of litres of hand sanitizer, and thousands of testing kits and ventilators from Canadian-based manufacturers, who are shifting production to make the badly needed equipment and supplies.

Assessment: Dr. Robin Cox, director of the Resilience by Design Research Innovation Lab at Royal Roads University, said it is difficult for governments to determine how much of an emergency stockpile is needed for future pandemics. The bigger issue, in her view, is Canada’s reliance on other countries to ship us the supplies we need.

“Those are the kinds of things that I think we were less prepared for, and those are the kinds of things we need to be thinking about as we move forward,” she said. “A more resilient country, like an individual, is in many ways self-reliant.”

Crisis communications

The challenge: To get buy-in from Canadians on unprecedented measures to slow the pandemic’s spread, to explain how to access emergency economic relief measures, and to articulate a national response to COVID-19 that brings together disparate provincial and territorial actions.

What other countries did: The international response runs the gamut from denying there’s an issue (Belarus, Brazil), to downplaying the impact of the virus (Russia), to daily news conferences on the crisis (the United States).

Canada’s response: The Liberal government has been holding news conferences almost daily since March 13. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, various senior cabinet ministers and public health officials have also been giving in-depth briefings to reporters.

Provincial governments have been holding daily news conferences to update numbers and offer the latest public health advice.

Assessment: Scott Reid, a political analyst and communications director for prime minister Paul Martin, said the repetition of the federal government’s daily news conferences has become “reassuring” for Canadians, injecting some consistency in uncertain times.

“One of the things people want in a situation of uncertainty is not just a steady diet of information, but they want the imposition of new routines,” Reid said.

On co-ordinating messaging with provinces, the Liberals appear to have decided at the outset to work with the premiers rather than attempt to impose the federal will, Reid said.

“It’s working because they’re not at each other’s throat,” Reid said. “From a communications standpoint, it’s worked because it’s minimized confrontation. It’s really marginalized partisanship and politicizing, to the point when premiers are critical, they run a risk of looking small and cheap.”

Border controls and travel restrictions

The challenge: At the most basic level, limiting the spread of COVID-19 carried by travellers returning from outside the country.

With centuries of evidence, public health experts have argued that travel restrictions are ineffective at stopping the spread of a disease. After weeks of making that argument, an additional challenge for the Liberal government was to explain why they reversed course and shut down the border to most non-citizens.

What other countries did: The United States began imposing travel restrictions — rather than outright bans — on Jan. 31, when all U.S. citizens travelling from China were funnelled through specific airports. In addition, most foreign nationals who had recently visited China were denied entry to the U.S.

The Trump administration escalated those restrictions on March 11, when it banned foreign nationals from Iran and most European countries from entering America. And on March 20, the administration reached deals with Canada and Mexico to restrict all “non-essential” travel crossing North American borders.

Canada’s response: After weeks of resisting targeted travel restrictions, the Canada closed the border to all international travellers except U.S. citizens on March 16. The following day, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland reached an agreement with U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence to dramatically reduce traffic across the Canada-U.S. border.

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By March 20, most “non-essential” travel ceased across the land border, and together with the international restrictions, meant Canada was almost fully closed to non-citizens.

Assessment: The Liberals have received significant criticism for failing to restrict travel into Canada earlier. But public health experts held — and still hold — that targeted travel restrictions aren’t helpful in trying to mitigate a pandemic.

“When you only target one country, or a few countries, then people find alternative ways of travelling and getting there,” said Dr. Steven Hoffman, the director of the Global Strategy Lab and a health law and politics professor at York University.

Science backs up that argument, Hoffman said. But in terms of full border closures — like the one the Canadian government imposed in March — there isn’t enough data to say whether it will be effective.

“We don’t know whether it will or won’t work — or, at very least, we don’t have the science showing it won’t work,” Hoffman said.

Economic response

The challenge: Saving the economy. Fighting the pandemic has come at a steep economic cost. In March alone, the economy shrank nine per cent and more than one million jobs were lost. The Bank of Canada predicts that the short-term downturn will be the sharpest on record.

Other countries: The U.S. government is mailing $1,200 (US) to tens of millions of Americans. Across Europe, nations are providing employers with generous wage subsidies to keep workers on their payrolls.

Canada’s response: Ottawa has rolled out measures that include increases to the GST credit and Canada Child Benefit to help families, as well as an income support program that pays $500 a week for 16 weeks to help those going without income. For businesses, there are a wage-subsidy program, loans and the promise of rent relief. The measures tally more than $100 billion and counting.

Assessment: Economist Craig Alexander says provincial and federal governments have done well in addressing what he calls the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression.

“Events have unfolded very, very quickly and the government has had to move fast as possible to address the vulnerabilities as best they can,” said Alexander, a partner and chief economist at Deloitte.

“Both the federal and provincial governments have delivered more stimulus faster than we’ve ever seen,” he said.

Alexander also credits the governments with making changes “on the fly” to plug gaps. “In this environment, you want to act as fast as you can and worry less about getting the design perfect.”

Federal leadership

The challenge: Knitting together a cohesive national plan to fight the virus when key areas such as health care fall under provincial jurisdiction.

What other countries are doing: South of the border, some states have been wrangling with Washington to get needed medical supplies and ventilators. U.S. President Donald Trump has squabbled with governors and this week falsely claimed that he had “total” authority to lift restrictions put in place by the states.

Canada’s response: The federal government has worked collaboratively with the provinces on issues to such as border restrictions and ramping up production of protective equipment and ventilators.

The prime minster and premiers have been holding regular teleconferences, and the tone has been non-partisan. “Moments of urgency require us to put aside our differences, have each other’s backs, stick together as a country,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said in March.

It has not gone entirely smoothly. The federal government only advocated national standards for long-term care homes — a provincial responsibility — after it became clear that COVID-19 would be especially deadly in those facilities. A patchwork of restrictions on social distancing prompted calls for Ottawa to take a stronger leadership role. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has suggested his province would consider using tests, vaccines or medications approved by regulators in other countries but not yet okayed by Health Canada.

Assessment: Donald Savoie, an expert in public administration, gives high marks to politicians at all levels for setting aside partisan differences to deal with the crisis.

Trudeau has a “pretty difficult task in the face of 10 pretty powerful premiers,” said Savoie, who holds the Canada research chair in public administration and governance at the Université de Moncton.

“They’ve been able to coalesce into a group. There’s been no back sniping,” he said. “All 10 premiers have been up to the task.

“Living a crisis, every day, these top government officials — the prime minister, premiers — they are faced with 101 questions, 101 decisions,” he said.

“I think they’ve handled the situation overall quite well given it was a crisis, given there was no manual,” he said.

Wayne Wouters, a former clerk of the Privy Council, says that in judging how Ottawa has fared so far, context is critical.

Wouters was in the senior ranks of government through the 9/11 attacks, the outbreaks of SARS and H1N1, and the 2008 recession. Now a strategic and policy adviser at the law firm McCarthy Tétrault, he says none of those experiences compares to what confronts the government today.

“While we like to find holes in the responses and approaches, these are governments — federal, provincial and municipal — in unprecedented times,” Wouters said.

There have been some missteps but Wouters said the government has been good at correcting its shortcomings.

“Governments aren’t always great at responding to crises. I think this government and provincial governments have done a tremendous job in reacting.”