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Re: [CT] S3* - US/PAKISTAN-Bin Laden, two others didn't fire on SEALs-sources

Released on 2012-10-18 17:00 GMT

Email-ID 1662746 Date 2011-05-06 04:09:28 From friedman@att.blackberry.net To sean.noonan@stratfor.com

Re: [CT] S3* - US/PAKISTAN-Bin Laden, two others didn't fire on SEALs-sources





The british double cross systen where they doubled the entire german

espionage net.



The israeli hit on the uss liberty



The first has been unraveled. The second i think i understand and it isnt

anything like it appeared.



Lets go have drinks one night and we can talk.



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T



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From: "Sean Noonan" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>

Date: Fri, 6 May 2011 02:03:26 +0000

To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>

ReplyTo: sean.noonan@stratfor.com

Subject: Re: [CT] S3* - US/PAKISTAN-Bin Laden, two others didn't fire on

SEALs-sources

Fair enough. Could you educate us (or at least me) on other US deception

plans that have been successful? Past examples



----------------------------------------------------------------------



From: "George Friedman" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>

Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 21:01:38 -0500 (CDT)

To: Sean Noonan<sean.noonan@stratfor.com>; CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>

ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net

Subject: Re: [CT] S3* - US/PAKISTAN-Bin Laden, two others didn't fire on

SEALs-sources

This is one of the times i dont think we should. I have one policy i have

always followed which is never harm the national security of this country.

The national command authority is running a global op that depends on the

enemy believing at least part of it. Im not going to do anything however

trivial that could effect that. Ive seen operations like this unravel from

the small tear and this is the mother of all disinformation plans.



By publishing this we'd appear clever but we could cost the country a lot

potentially. Wont take that chance. But internally we need to understand

why this campaign has to be underway and why we cant take seriously any

detail.



Probably it makes no difference we we wrote about this but we wont.



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T



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From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>

Date: Thu, 05 May 2011 20:52:32 -0500

To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>

Subject: Re: [CT] S3* - US/PAKISTAN-Bin Laden, two others didn't fire on

SEALs-sources

I think we should write something up from this.



On 5/5/11 8:48 PM, George Friedman wrote:



There are so many anomalies, some clearly intentional and some not that

we just cant tell.



Remember, in every covert operation like this there is a sacred rule,

which is to leave the enemy as uncertain as possible on as many issues

as possible. In the ideal scenario you want to leave open the question

of whether the target is tallking or not.



It is inconceivable to me that this operation would be excepted from the

rule as creating uncertainty buys precious time for exploiting

intelligence before the enemy goes to cover.



Therefore i would be shocked and dismayed if any more than a small

fraction of what we think we know turned out to be true. When i see the

inconsistencies and oddities i know that the disinformation operation is

underway. The goal is to make the enemy uncertain and shape his

response.



In the course of that we will also be uncertain. We are talking about

details of this operation from helicopters to safe houses as if this

disinformation campaign isnt underway. Not smart.



For all you know the source of everything was the isi and osama was

capture three months ago, interrogated and then killed with the killing

taped for congressional eyes.



The point is that we dont know any details and there are some extremely

capable people whose job it is to confuse us. In trying to piece

together what happened from media information and rumors passed on by

friends we are being pretty unsophisticated.



I can guarantee two things. The first is that we are in the midst of a

massive and necessary disinformation campaign. The second is that the

few who participated and commanded this operation are talking only under

orders and in order to deceive.



Lets not be like the networks full of tidbits from people who couldnt

possible know the things they claim to. We talk about the hall of

mirrors. You are inside of one.



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T



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From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>

Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com

Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 20:29:36 -0500 (CDT)

To: <hughes@stratfor.com>

ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>

Cc: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>

Subject: Re: [CT] S3* - US/PAKISTAN-Bin Laden, two others didn't fire on

SEALs-sources

Dude, I bet 30-50 people saw that video, outside of Navy and CIA who

were directly carrying out the mission. Including many politicians.

Politicians talk.



Did you see the pics of the cabinet watching? There were photographers!



On 5/5/11 8:07 PM, hughes@stratfor.com wrote:



Yeah, even the official story could be disinfo. The only guys that

know are the shooters and senior leadership -- ppl who aren't talking

and a detail they won't talk about.



Some sort of picture might eventually emerge, just not sure how

seriously we can take various details on what happened in the house at

this point. Rumor mill is running wild.



----------------------------------------------------------------------



From: "Sean Noonan" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>

Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com

Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 19:56:41 -0500 (CDT)

To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>

ReplyTo: sean.noonan@stratfor.com, CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>

Subject: Re: [CT] S3* - US/PAKISTAN-Bin Laden, two others didn't fire

on SEALs-sources

Maybe disinfo, but this is beginning to sound more like an

assassination mission.



Thoughts?



----------------------------------------------------------------------



From: Reginald Thompson <reginald.thompson@stratfor.com>

Sender: alerts-bounces@stratfor.com

Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 18:13:13 -0500 (CDT)

To: <alerts@stratfor.com>

ReplyTo: analysts@stratfor.com

Subject: S3* - US/PAKISTAN-Bin Laden, two others didn't fire on

SEALs-sources

lots of detail here, this seems to be the latest and most detailed

version of what happened in the compound (RT)



Bin Laden, two others didn't fire on SEALs-sources



http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/bin-laden-two-others-didnt-fire-on-seals-sources/



5.5.11



WASHINGTON, May 5 (Reuters) - Only one of four principal targets shot

dead by U.S. commandos in the raid which killed Osama bin Laden was

involved in any hostile fire, a person familiar with the latest U.S.

government reporting on the raid told Reuters on Thursday.



The account of Monday's daring 40-minute raid has new descriptions of

the event, including that Navy SEALs shot an occupant of the compound

who they thought was armed, but apparently was not.



It confirms that bin Laden was not armed when he was shot dead, nor

are there indications that he directly threatened his attackers,

according to the first source and a second U.S. government source who

is familiar with briefings on the raid.



They requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak for

the record.



The Obama administration had given numerous, conflicting accounts of

the raid this week, and it is possible these accounts will be revised

yet again.



Here is a chronological version of what is now said to have happened

on Monday when the SEAL team raided bin Laden's hide-out in Abbotabad,

Pakistan:



A SEAL squad moved in darkness on the guest house, one of two

dwellings inside the walls of bin Laden's compound. They were met with

hostile fire. As they moved in, they shot a man who was in the guest

house.



He turned out to be Abu Ahmed Al-Kuwaiti, the al Qaeda courier whose

activities the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies had been

investigating for years and who they believed would lead them to bin

Laden.



After shooting al-Kuwaiti, the two sources familiar with official

accounts said, U.S. commandos moved onto the compound's three-story

main residence.



As they entered the house, they saw a man with his hands behind his

back. Fearing that the man might be holding a weapon behind him, the

commandos shot him dead.



It turned out that the man, who was the brother of of Abu Ahmed al

Kuwaiti and another suspected al Qaeda courier, was not holding a

weapon, according to the two sources familiar with official accounts.



However, the attackers did subsequently find weapons near the second

man's body, the sources said.



After killing the second courier, commandos started climbing the

stairs to the house's upper floors. As they climbed, a man charged

down the stairs at them, and was shot dead. U.S. authorities now

believe that he was Osama bin Laden's son.



As commandos proceeded up the stairs, the sources said, they saw a

person they believed was bin Laden either poke his head out of a door

or over a balcony. One of the sources said that the attackers took at

least one shot at the person, who then retreated back inside the room

he had come from.



The U.S. commandos proceeded to the top floor and into the room where

the man had retreated. While entering the room, they were rushed by a

woman. The woman, now believed to be one of bin Laden's wives, was

shot in the leg.



After shooting her, the commandos pushed her to the side. Precisely

what bin Laden then did, and what his reaction was when the commandos

entered and shot his wife, is unclear.



But the people familiar with official accounts said the attackers did

not wait for much of a reaction, and almost immediately shot the al

Qaeda leader dead. (Editing by Warren Strobel and Vicki Allen)



-----------------

Reginald Thompson



Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741



OSINT

Stratfor



--



Sean Noonan



Tactical Analyst



Office: +1 512-279-9479



Mobile: +1 512-758-5967



Strategic Forecasting, Inc.



www.stratfor.com



--



Sean Noonan



Tactical Analyst



Office: +1 512-279-9479



Mobile: +1 512-758-5967



Strategic Forecasting, Inc.



www.stratfor.com









