Article content continued

If the first quarter GDP numbers confirm the economy actually shrank in the first three months of the year – a very real possibility based on the contraction in January – Justin Trudeau will have some heavy duty ordnance to lob across the aisle.

This is the stuff that people vote on. In a recent EKOS poll, 41% of respondents said “restoring middle class progress” is the most important issue for them, against 20% who rated security.

“The election will be won and lost on the middle class, not the Middle East,” said one senior Liberal.

The election will be won and lost on the middle class, not the Middle East

The same EKOS poll asked voters to rate their own economic progress. More than one third said they had fallen behind in the last year, against just 14% who said they’d moved ahead. Just one in five said they thought they’d be better off in five years time.

“Those are coffin-nail numbers. We just have to figure out how to drive them in,” said the Liberal source.

Therein lies the rub. How to convince Canadians they’d be better off turfing the Tories? The Liberals have a plan to help the middle class that is likely to mean middle-bracket tax cuts and child benefits payments, while painting the Conservatives as a party that wants to cut taxes for the rich.

Income redistribution will get them so far.

In addition, both opposition parties need to offer plans that will spur economic growth. The Liberals have already hinted at a strategy based on fiscal stimulus and investment in public infrastructure.

But beyond all the economic prolix, it will come down to which leader can best convince voters they will be better off if they are prime minister. Mr. Trudeau needs to crack the supposition that he’s not ready to govern; Mr. Mulcair has to assuage the suspicion that an NDP government would torpedo the economy and vaporize wealth.

Voters have trusted Mr. Harper in three successive elections but his promise of jobs, growth and long-term prosperity is looking more washed out with every new employment report.

jivison@nationalpost.com

Twitter.com/IvisonJ