“That assumption is definitely way off base,” Herman told The Washington Post in a phone conversation this week. “But again, it’s something I literally — you can’t hide from the way social media is now. You can’t hide from it. But I literally spend zero time thinking about that. My focus is always, always, always on this football team and how to win a game on Saturday. I know what’s out there, but I don’t formulate any opinions.”

Most of that answer comes from the hot-candidate playbook. But there is validity in the first part. Houston may have a better chance to keep Herman than most would expect.

AD

AD

Any chance Houston has depends on Big 12 expansion, which could wrap up this month. It’s unrealistic to believe Herman would spend another season coaching outside the Power Five, but Houston may soon be in it. Fortunately for Houston, if expansion happens, it seems to be the Big 12’s most logical choice. Unfortunately for Houston, Big 12 expansion bears every sign of a bureaucratic quagmire and administrative fiasco. But if Houston joins the Big 12, Herman would not have to leave to leap to a Power Five conference.

Herman will not have to leave over drastic salary concerns. If he wants to squeeze every last dollar, which would be his right, he’ll leave — the sums LSU boosters could collect boggles the mind. But Houston is hell-bent on keeping him and has proven it with its own financial commitments.

In December, Herman signed a five-year extension worth $3 million per season. (Herman receives $2.8 million and devotes $200,000 to a pool to pay his assistants.) More importantly, the deal also ensured Herman will be paid like a top-tier coach if Herman leads Houston into the Big 12.

AD

AD

Herman will receive a $5 million bonus if Houston joins a Power Five conference, to be paid in 24 monthly installments over two years, starting the first full Power Five season. For instance: If Houston joins the Big 12 in 2017, Herman would start receiving $208,000 extra a month in February 2018. In order to receive the full $5 million, under that hypothetical, he would need to stay through the 2019 bowl season.

Besides the $5 million bonus, Houston has pledged to immediately renegotiate Herman’s contract should it join a Power Five league. At minimum, the new deal would be guaranteed to rank among the top half of coaches’ salaries in the new conference. In the Big 12, that would mean at least around $4 million a year.

The money underscores that Houston means business about building a serious football program. Houston played big-time football before the Southwest Conference broke apart, and it was left without a chair when the music stopped. It wants to play big-time football again. Hunter Yurachek, the school’s vice president for athletics, called Houston “a destination position and not a steppingstone” when it signed Herman last year. Yuracheck said Houston has every intention to “build and maintain a nationally relevant, championship program in the city of Houston.”

AD

AD

Houston is a gigantic city, and it is in the state of Texas. If motivation is present, resources should not be a problem. In the fall, the schools plans to break ground on a new indoor football facility.

In regard to personnel, Herman has no reason to fear regression. True freshman defensive tackle Ed Oliver has been perhaps the most destructive first-year defensive player in the country and a symbol of Herman’s ability to attract elite talent. The Cougars will lose spectacular quarterback Greg Ward Jr. to graduation. In the wings, they have Kyle Allen, a former five-star recruit who transferred from Texas A&M. His athleticism and throwing talent will fit ideally into Herman’s dazzling offense.

Though it may be the exception and not the rule, there is a similar precedent for what Houston hopes to accomplish. In the early 2000s, Gary Patterson lifted a dormant program (TCU) in a major market (Dallas-Fort Worth) to national prominence, and in October 2011, TCU gained entry into the Big 12.

AD

AD

Rather than take his opportunity to leave for a big program, Patterson built one himself. The Horned Frogs won the Rose Bowl in 2011 and were in the national title conversation two years ago. Would Patterson have felt the same satisfaction if he had done that at a different school?

That is the kind of question Herman will have to ask himself in the coming months, especially if the Big 12 expands and selects Houston. While his stance on job openings is cliche, it’s also reasonable — he’s too busy to develop an accurate feel for those big questions. He will not assume anything right now. Maybe the rest of the country should follow his lead.

More college football:

AD