by PETER DÖRRIE

A great storm is coming to South Sudan, quite literally. Sometime during the next month, the rainy season will start in earnest and render much of the country inaccessible.

The rains will bring a reprieve for the country’s 16-month-old civil war — no roads means no troop movements. Neither the government nor the rebels have an air force to speak of, nor the airborne capacity to follow up on bombings with ground troops.

But Pres. Salva Kiir’s army — and rebels loyal to his former deputy Riek Machar — are ratcheting up the fighting to put themselves in the best position before the rains.

This makes it harder for humanitarian organizations to prepare. Just like last year, many of the country’s thousands of refugees will suffer and die in overcrowded and inundated camps, even though active fighting will subside.

When the rain clears in November, the war will in all likelihood continue.

In the meantime, a new round of peace talks will start. Like during previous attempts, mediators and negotiating teams will hole up in luxurious hotels in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa.

Both rebels and government representatives will receive per diems of about $250 per head and have all their expenses, including room prices of $300 per night covered. That probably includes the mini bar.

The talks are unlikely to result in a peace deal worth the paper its written on. Neither the government, nor the rebels want to compromise. Kiir has said previously that he will not enter into any kind of power sharing deal with Machar, and Machar’s faction won’t stop fighting without one.