The question of what Brexit will look like is still unanswered – a situation that irks some of those in the anti-EU camp

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The big picture

Two months to the day after Britain voted to leave the European Union, is the government leaning towards an EU trade deal outside the single market?

With most government ministers still on holiday and the Brexit and international trade departments not yet fully operational, there is no concrete news on what Brexit plan Whitehall intends to pursue, nor when it intends to trigger article 50 to begin the formal two-year exit process.



Facebook Twitter Pinterest Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Canada recently concluded a free trade agreement with the EU. Photograph: Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images

But ITV’s generally well-informed Robert Peston seemed fairly confident on his blog last week that Whitehall, having concluded voters would never accept the cost of single market membership (EU immigration, EU rules and EU budget payments) was in all likelihood aiming for a deal based on Canada’s recently concluded free trade agreement with the EU, plus “a bespoke add-on for services”.

Conservative MP praises 'British empire' for Rio 2016 medal tally Read more

The Financial Times, meanwhile, reported that the City wants an arrangement along the lines of the complex patchwork of bilateral sectoral accords Switzerland has agreed with the EU for access to parts of the single market (though the Swiss had to accept freedom of movement and EU regulations in exchange).

Whatever direction the government does choose, it is all taking far too long for some prominent Brexiters.

The former cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith took to the pages of the Sun to urge prime minister Theresa May to begin negotiations as soon as possible, saying there was a strong economic case for leaving and that remain supporters were trying to postpone Brexit indefinitely.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Only a fifth of banks, insurers and private equity firms thought the Brexit vote would be bad for business. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Post-referendum (as opposed to post-Brexit) economic signals, meanwhile, continued to be mixed. Accountancy firm EY found only a fifth of the 232 banks, insurers, private equity and other financial firms it surveyed thought the vote would be bad for business.



But infrastructure spending has plummeted since the referendum, with the value of infrastructure construction contracts for July dropping by 20% to £1.5bn, and Britain’s largest estate agency group, Countrywide, has warned that house prices would fall 1% next year and not recover until late 2018.

As one survey found, public confidence in the economy had recovered in August, shrugging off concerns that jobs and higher wages were at risk.

Brexit weekly briefing: Westminster's lack of a plan leads to turf war Read more

The Guardian’s Katie Allen summarised last week’s glut of post-Brexit economic data, including inflation and unemployment, as follows:

Employment is up, shoppers kept spending and a weaker pound has boosted UK tourism. At the same time, inflation has picked up, house prices have wobbled and businesses say they are nervous about hiring and investing.

As far as public opinion is concerned, psephologist John Curtice found in a fascinating survey of post-Brexit opinion polls that “for the most part, the country does not regret the decision it made in June”, with more than 90% of both leave and remain voters saying they were still confident they had voted the right way.

But Curtice did identify an apparent sharp fall in leave voters’ expectations of what Brexit might achieve in both reducing immigration and boosting spending on the NHS, “perhaps an indication that some leave voters have come to the view that they might have been sold a false prospectus”.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Supporters of the ‘Vote leave’ campaign. Photograph: Alamy

Whatever is (or is not) going on in Brexitland, however, everything is going to work out just fine because, as the Sunday Times reported, Britain’s remarkable performance in the Rio Olympics will serve as an inspiration to all:

Theresa May will harness the spirit of Britain’s Olympic “world beaters” to draw up a blueprint for Brexit … a senior cabinet minister has revealed the government will adopt the same approach of backing “excellence” that has catapulted Team GB to glory as the masterplan for economic prosperity outside the EU.

The view from Europe

'This is the beginning of a new Europe' say Merkel, Renzi and Hollande Read more

The leaders of Italy, France and Germany insisted rumours of the EU’s imminent demise following Brexit were greatly exaggerated, pledging to reboot it by bolstering EU security, boosting economic growth and giving the continent’s youth a future.

Matteo Renzi, François Hollande and Angela Merkel said during talks – on an Italian aircraft carrier ahead of an informal summit of the 27 remaining EU states in Bratislava next month – that they respected the British vote but were determined to push on.

“Europe after Brexit will relaunch the powerful ideals of unity and peace, freedom and dreams,” Renzi said.

On the island of Ventotene, the three laid flowers at the grave of Altiero Spinelli, an anti-fascist intellectual who co-wrote a manifesto calling for a federation of European states while imprisoned there during the second world war.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Angela Merkel will begin a week of whirl post-Brexit diplomacy. Photograph: Guido Bergmann/AFP/Getty Images

For Merkel, the meeting is the start of a week of whirlwind post-Brexit diplomacy that will see her meeting heads of state in Prague, Tallinn, and Warsaw before hosting first the leaders of Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden, and then the presidents of Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia at a castle outside Berlin.

Europe remains deeply divided over how to bounce back from Brexit, and over how to defeat mounting Euroscepticism, with Berlin making it plain it favours a “better Europe” (for which read more efficient and less interfering) over the “more Europe” (for which read further integration) favoured by some.

Meanwhile, back in Westminster

With official Brexit announcements on hold while Theresa May continues her walking holiday in the decidedly neutral destination of Switzerland, it’s a case of while the boss is away, the Westminster land-grab continues.

Audio has emerged of yet more trouble-making from international trade secretary Liam Fox, telling a US radio show he was “taking over a wing of what is at the moment the Foreign Office”.



Fox said his department would be “based between Downing Street and the Foreign Office, and that’s going to send an important signal about how important Britain thinks international trade is in our relationship with the wider world”.

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And it’s not just Boris Johnson’s remit that Fox has in his sights. Fox also said he would be taking control of the trade responsibilities of the business department, defence exports from the MoD, and export finance from the Treasury, as well as “creating a totally new trade negotiation department all within itself”.

London mayor Sadiq Khan has backed Owen Smith in the Labour leadership contest, castigating Jeremy Corbyn for his lukewarm performance in the EU referendum. Khan said the lack of support from the party leadership during the referendum was “heartbreaking”.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Sadiq Khan. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA



“Like most Labour activists, I campaigned hard for Britain to stay in the EU. Campaigners told me that Jeremy was failing to persuade Labour supporters outside London, so I went to campaign in Manchester, Leeds and Bradford,” he said in a piece for the Observer.

“Throughout the campaign and aftermath, Jeremy failed to show the leadership we desperately needed. His position on EU membership was never clear – and voters didn’t believe him.

“A third of Labour voters said they didn’t know where the party stood on the referendum just a week before polling day.”

You should also know that:

Read these

Are Brexiters getting anxious? An editorial in the Spectator seemed to suggest so, arguing that it is “time to defend Brexit” because “the remainers have moved quickly and effectively into post-campaign mode and have found a new vocabulary”. This is worrying for leavers, the magazine says, because:

The side who won the war now risk losing the peace. With Vote Leave gone, Brexit risks being defined by its enemies and moulded to fit their caricature … the referendum was just one battle, but many more now follow.

In the Guardian, Hans Kundnani argued that the continent’s leaders, many with their own Euroscepticism problem, are divided about how to respond to Brexit, but warned that this would not necessarily translate into good news for Britain in the exit negotiations:

Whether Britons like it or not, it will inform the way the EU negotiates with the UK … [The deal Britain succeeds in getting] will depend on the domestic political pressures on Europe’s leaders and the negotiation between them about the future of the EU-27.

In an opinion piece, the Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott, who voted leave, rejoiced in the fact that while it was early days yet:

It is obvious that the sky has not fallen in as a result of the referendum, and those who said it would look a bit silly.”

Fabian Zuleeg of the European Policy Centre said Europe was getting fed up with Britain’s shilly-shallying and wanted action soon (although he reckoned there was little chance of it getting much certainty from London anytime soon):

Post-2017, after the key elections in Germany and France, the EU will need to decide what general direction to take in a post-Brexit world, which will be difficult as long as the UK is still in the club … there is also a desire to ensure populists have as little scope as possible to exploit the uncertainty. Only by knowing what “out” really means can the more pro-European political forces start to construct counter-arguments.

Tweet of the week

For those who remember the side of the Vote Leave bus: