National Polls

LA Times – Hillary +0.3

GWU/Battleground – Hillary +2 (4-way)

Red Oak Strategic Poll – Hillary +2 (4-way)

YouGov/The Economist – Hillary +1 (2-way), Hillary +2 (4-way)

The national polls which have come out so far this morning show a very tight race. I was optimistic that Trump would narrow it down to a 3 point race by Labor day after Hillary’s convention bounce faded, but it looks like it is already trending down into a 2 point race now.

State Polls

Arizona – Arizona Republic – Hillary +1 (4-way)

Missouri – Remington Research – Trump +9 (4-way)

South Carolina – WLTX – Trump +12 (4-way)

Pennsylvania – PPP – Hillary +5 (2-way)

New Hampshire – PPP – Hillary +5 (2-way)

Iowa – PPP – Hillary +2 (2-way)

Florida – PPP – Hillary +1 (2-way), Trump +1 (4-way)

Maine – Emerson – Hillary +9 (4-way)

Vermont – Emerson – Hillary +21 (4-way)

Connecticut – Emerson – Hillary +15 (4-way)

Massachusetts – Emerson – Hillary +17 (4-way)

New Hampshire – Emerson – Hillary +5 (4-way)

Rhode Island – Emerson – Hillary +3 (4-way)

New Jersey – Emerson – Hillary +4 (4-way)

The Missouri and South Carolina polls show that Trump has gained back a lot of ground. The PPP poll out of Pennsylvania shows a 5 point race which is where it was at a week ago. The PPP poll out of New Hampshire has moved a point toward Trump since last week. In Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, PPP is finding a closer race than is reflected in the national polling averages, particularly in New Hampshire which isn’t listed as a “toss up” state. Iowa and Arizona are obviously both very close as well.

The state polls are starting to reflect the swing back to Trump we are seeing in the national polls. If the election hangs on a razor edge margin, it could go either way. It becomes much more vulnerable to events like a terrorist attack or natural disaster. Superstorm Sandy, for example, lifted Obama above Romney in the final days of the 2012 election. The new PPP poll in Florida shows the race is now so close there that Stein, Johnson, and McMullin are tipping the state to Trump.

In the Northeast, the Emerson polls show that Yankees are still being Yankees, but significantly less so than four years ago.. In the 2012 election, Obama won Maine by +16, Vermont by +35, Connecticut by +17, Massachusetts by +23, New Hampshire by +6, Rhode Island by +27 and New Jersey by +17.

Note: Politico is starting to lose it. Very enjoyable read.