A doctor treating patients in the coronavirus unit at Eisenhower Health has called for a lockdown of the entire Coachella Valley to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, which he called a "once in 500 years event."

His comments came the same day that the Palm Springs City Council directed City Manager David Ready to order residents to shelter-in-place, and the closure of nonessential businesses, beginning Wednesday at 7 a.m. and lasting through April 2.

Addressing the Riverside County Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday morning, Dr. Rick Loftus, a virologist and HIV researcher, also said it is critical that people adhere to county Public Health Officer Dr. Cameron Kaiser's order prohibiting gatherings of more than 10 people and that there be at least six feet between those people who are in a group.

“Over the next 12 to 18 months, if a proactive social isolation with proactive lockdown conditions... are not implemented, I estimated that 4,000 people age 50 or above will die in my valley and 11,000 of them will require ICU-level care," Loftus said.

Additionally, he estimated that 200 people under age 40 could die, if the county's 10-person rule is not followed.

​"This is a very serious event," said Loftus, who clarified that he does not speak for the Rancho Mirage hospital. "This is a once in 500 years event."

He said as many as 1,500 snowbirds traveling from Washington state to the Coachella Valley could have "unwittingly spread" COVID-19 in February. As of Monday, there were 48 reported cases of the virus in Washington.

Riverside County had reported 16 confirmed cases of coronavirus, leading to three deaths, as of Tuesday afternoon. Most of the cases have been clustered in the Coachella Valley, where a significant portion of the population is older and therefore more likely to get very sick from the virus, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Questions about hospitals' capacity

Addressing the supervisors, Loftus raised concerns about the valley's capacity to respond to a surge in patients seeking care for the coronavirus.

He pointed to Italy, where, he said, ventilators are at capacity and health care workers are having to decide which patients get access to them. Eisenhower has 45 ventilators and, he warned, they will be at capacity within weeks if restrictions on social distancing and isolation are not strictly enforced.

Lee Rice, Eisenhower Health spokesperson, previously told The Desert Sun that as of last Thursday, the hospital had enough ventilators to meet its needs and was "able to accommodate a higher number of patients if needed."

Loftus also highlighted challenges involving testing for the virus. He said he has two patients in the COVID-19 unit who have been waiting four days for their test results, and an Eisenhower doctor who has been in quarantine for 10 days is still awaiting a result.

He said the test used for determining COVID-19 infection is not perfect. Medical literature indicates that as many as 30% of people who test negative still have true viral infection, he said.

"This test does not have perfect sensitivity," Loftus said. "Which means if you test negative, it's suggestive that you're free of virus but it doesn't prove it."

Rice, the hospital spokesperson, said Tuesday afternoon that the hospital is "having some delays in getting results from the state-approved labs that are processing tests."

Loftus also told the supervisors that he has organized a team of private citizens to gather N95 masks, in case the hospital runs out.

In response, Rice said the hospital's mask reserves are "low."

"Eisenhower would certainly appreciate citizens providing any N95 masks they have on hand," she said.

Following Loftus' remarks, Supervisor V. Manuel Perez called the Coachella Valley "ground zero" for the virus in Riverside County.

"I'm wondering if social distancing is enough," Perez said. "At what point do we move from social distancing to social isolation and look at the model of San Francisco of shelter in place. I know it's a difficult decision, we don't take these decisions lightly. I'm not saying we need to make this decision right here, right now. But every hour counts."

Rebecca Plevin is a reporter for The Desert Sun. Reporter Chris Damien contributed to this report.