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Former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove said Donald “Trump has done slightly better in states where there is an open primary," like Wisconsin. Karl Rove: If Trump wins Wisconsin, 'the contest is over'

The race for the Republican nomination is effectively over if Donald Trump wins Wisconsin, Karl Rove said Tuesday.

“If he wins Wisconsin, the contest is over,” the former George W. Bush White House aide and Fox News contributor said. “If not, it’s gonna go on and the math becomes somewhat more difficult.”

Trump leads the GOP field but is still 500 delegates shy of clinching the nomination. Ted Cruz trails Trump by more than 260 delegates but holds a 5-point advantage heading into Wisconsin’s primary, according to a RealClearPolitics average of state polls. Rove, however, suggested Wisconsin’s open primary process favors the New York billionaire.

“Trump has done slightly better in states where there is an open primary, where Democrats and independents can come in and vote, and has done slightly worse in states that have a closed primary, where only registered Republicans can vote,” he said.

Cruz has the support of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and influential conservative radio host Charlie Sykes, but that hasn’t stopped Trump from campaigning across the state. In fact, he’s likened Wisconsin to South Carolina, a state where the governor endorsed Marco Rubio but Trump prevailed.

“He’s spent a lot of time there,” Rove said of the front-runner in Wisconsin. “If he wins, it’s over. If he loses, it’s gonna be a tougher contest.”