17 Pages Posted: 24 Aug 2014

Date Written: August 22, 2014

Abstract

This paper models the stolen base play in baseball as a simple inspection game. The model offers equilibrium predictions relating the frequency with which a stolen base play is attempted, and the frequency with which it is successful. Using an extensive play-by-play dataset from 37 Major League Baseball seasons, qualitative and quantiative support is found for the predictions of the model. An exogenous change in the average number of runs scored per game during the period covered by the dataset provides a natural experiment; the equilibrium model predicts the change in the relationship between attempt and success frequencies observed in the data.