The Mets thought they had something special when they drafted Steven Matz back in 2009. But because of injuries, he didn’t make it onto a mound for his professional debut until 2012. His number were good in both 2012 and 2013 but he didn’t pitch a ton of innings in either season, plus he was a little old for his level both years. While Mets fans were dreaming about what could be, the prospect world was definitely more bearish on his chances.

But things started to change the following season. Baseball Prospectus’ Jeff Moore filed the following scouting report on Matz after seeing him pitch for St. Lucie on May 1, 2014:

Matz’s overall package looks like he’s setting himself up well for a number of years in the middle of a major league rotation. Injuries set him back, but now that he’s healthy he’s developing well and should move quickly through the minors. He has the potential for two above-average pitches and a third average offering. His fastball velocity should allow him to miss bats and his command of it doesn’t have too far to go to be truly effective. His curveball will be effective against lefties, and he’s comfortable throwing it to right-handed hitters to keep them honest. If the change-up continues to develop, he’ll have three offerings he can throw any hitter at any time. His mechanics have been refined from previous reports to the point where they really help his stuff play up. He repeats his delivery well and there is little effort in the motion. As he continues to gain experience and remain healthy, Matz has a chance to become a number two starter while likely setting in as a mid-rotation guy.

That’s a pretty nice report on a guy who didn’t even crack Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list coming into the season. Furthermore, Moore graded Matz’ pitches, giving current and future grades:

Fastball – 50/60

Curveball – 50/55

Changeup – 40/50

The change was thought to be the weak sister, both currently and in the future. In his notes about the pitch, Moore called it “inconsistent.”

In 2014, Matz split time between Hi-A and Double-A and pitched very well at both stops. In 71 IP at Binghamton, he had a 2.28 ERA, a 1.127 WHIP and a 4.93 K/BB ratio. It was enough to get him onto everyone’s prospect lists, as BA and BP both ranked him 33 and mlb.com put him at 66 heading into 2015.

As good as Matz was in Double-A, he was even better in Triple-A, despite the hitter-friendly environments of both the league and his home park. In 90.1 IP for Las Vegas, Matz posted a 2.19 ERA, which earned him a promotion to the majors. He pitched well right from the start but after two starts with the Mets, he went three months before making his next appearance for them, due to a lat injury.

Matz ended up making six starts in the majors during the regular season and three more in the playoffs. Everyone knows about his sparkling 2.27 ERA with the Mets, even if most don’t realize it came with an unsustainable 91.4 strand rate. While that figure may be more luck than skill, you still have to be making good pitches to pull it off. So, how did Matz do it?

According to FanGraphs’ Pitch Types, it was mostly with his fastball, which he threw 68.4% of the time. And it’s hard to blame a lefty with an average fastball of 94.3 mph throwing it that often. His primary offspeed pitch was his curve, which he threw nearly 20% of the time and Matz threw his change nearly 10%. It’s in line with what you would expect from the scouting report Moore filed back in 2014.

But the surprise was how well the results were when Matz threw his change. On a per 100 pitches scale, Matz had a 1.76 rating with his change, which is nearly identical to what Jake Arrieta did last year. Of course, Arrietta did it over 229 innings, making his results so much more impressive. Among qualified pitchers, Arrieta had the seventh-best change in the league by this metric.

Imagine if Matz pitches a full season in 2016 and in addition to his outstanding fastball he also has a good curve and a change that ranks in the top 10 of MLB? However, much like with WPA, these Pitch Type Values are descriptive and not predictive. Just because Matz had great success with his changeup in 2015 doesn’t mean he’ll experience the same thing in 2016. Because he didn’t throw the pitch often, it’s possible it merely caught hitters off guard. With scouting reports mentioning the change, perhaps hitters will fare better against the pitch in 2016.

TexasLeaguers shows that Matz threw his change 66 times during the regular season. And while he didn’t get a ton of swings and misses (7.6%), he did throw it for strikes (63.6%) and hitters didn’t feast on the pitch, as they put it in play just 18.2% of the time.

Generally, pitchers use the change most often as a weapon when they don’t have the platoon advantage, as the pitch typically moves away from that batter. And Matz followed that pattern as with his 66 changes, only 14 were thrown to lefties, compared to 52 versus righties. And apparently, Matz threw different changes to righties and lefties. Versus righties, his change had a 1,931 spin rate and versus lefties that mark was less than half, as his spin rate was 845.

By contrast, Arrieta’s spin rate with his change was nearly identical versus righties (2,000) when he had the platoon advantage and lefties (2,011) when he didn’t. Among qualified LHP, Cole Hamels had the best changeup in 2015. And like Arrieta, there was no meaningful difference in his spin rate when he threw his changes to either lefties (1,944) or righties (1,988).

So, it would seem there was room for improvement with Matz with his change, as top pitchers can throw the pitch with as much spin against a hitter regardless of which side of the plate from which he hits.

So when you’re watching Matz in 2016, pay attention to his change and see how effective the pitch is overall. Is he throwing it for strikes? Is it catching hitters off guard and producing weak contact? Does his change spin and move as much against lefties as it does righties?

Chances are, if you answer yes to all three of those questions above that Matz again is having great success with his changeup. And if that’s the case, Matz may be the fourth pitcher in the Mets’ rotation but by no means will he be a mid-rotation starter.

Share this: Email

Facebook

Print

Reddit

Twitter

More

Pinterest

LinkedIn



Tumblr

