The ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) is expected to win the forthcoming parliamentary election, which will take place on April 2nd. This should enable Serzh Sargsyan, the president and RPA chairman, to retain a pre-eminent role in the country's political system. The party's ability to draw on the administrative and financial resources of the state will put it at a major advantage relative to other parties, some of which offer only nominal opposition to the government. Genuine opposition parties remain fragmented and are unlikely to pose a serious threat to the government.

The election comes a year before Armenia switches to a parliamentary system of government in accordance with constitutional reforms adopted after a referendum in December 2015. As a result of the reforms, the country's next president will be elected in April or May 2018 by parliament, rather than by popular vote, and will have largely ceremonial powers. The Armenian constitution bars Mr Sargsyan from seeking a third five-year term in office. He has still not said whether he will try to become prime minister or hold another state post after the end of his presidency. In November 2016 an RPA spokesman said that in any case Mr Sargsyan would continue to chair the RPA for "many years" to come.

Mr Sargsyan's chairmanship of the RPA may be sufficient for him to continue to dominate the political system after his presidential term ends. Under this scenario, he is likely to put forward a politically inexperienced figure as prime minister who will be heavily dependent on the RPA for support. The current prime minister, Karen Karapetyan, fits the bill. The 53‑year‑old former business executive had never engaged in politics before he was appointed as prime minister in September last year. In a speech in November Mr Sargsyan stated that Mr Karapetyan would retain his post at least until April 2018 if the RPA won the forthcoming election. But the president shed no light on his own political future.

RPA to retain control

Under Mr Sargsyan's decade-long leadership, the RPA has won virtually all elections in Armenia, making heavy use of its control of state institutions, election commissions and broadcast media. Vote buying and electoral fraud have also been a feature of the RPA's rule. The RPA has been adept at co-opting or neutralising potential opponents through a mixture of threats and power-sharing deals, as shown by the experience of the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), led by the populist businessman, Gagik Tsarukian. Mr Tsarukian became one of the country's richest men during the presidency of Robert Kocharian, Mr Sargsyan's estranged predecessor.

Mr Tsarukian's party has come second in the past two parliamentary elections. The PAP was in coalition with the RPA until 2012, when Mr Tsarukian withdrew from the government and signaled his intention to challenge Mr Sargsyan in the February 2013 presidential election. However, he unexpectedly dropped out of the presidential race in December 2012, apparently under strong pressure from Mr Sargsyan. In February 2015 Mr Tsarukian again sought to challenge the RPA and Mr Sargsyan, holding co-ordinated protests with other opposition parties against the proposed constitutional changes. Mr Sargsyan responded by ordering a crackdown on the tycoon and his businesses. The PAP leader quickly bowed under the pressure, announcing his retirement from politics. The PAP subsequently officially endorsed the proposed constitutional amendments in September.

Relations between the two men have improved since Mr Tsarukian's volte-face, with the president repeatedly attending the inauguration of new businesses launched by the tycoon. On January 17th Mr Tsarukian announced his decision to resume political activities and participate in the parliamentary election at the head of a new bloc, presumably centred on the PAP. He lamented enduring economic hardship in Armenia but pointedly declined to blame the government for it.

The announcement followed media speculation that Mr Tsarukian has struck a pre-election deal with Mr Sargsyan aimed at diverting votes from the opposition. Owing to his heavily advertised charitable activities, Mr Tsarukian is still popular with many disgruntled (and mostly blue-collar) Armenians who regard him as an alternative to the government. His political comeback is therefore a serious blow to established opposition groups. At the same time, the ruling RPA was quick to welcome Mr Tsarukian's return to the political scene. In what might have been a reference to the possibility of a new power-sharing deal with the PAP, Mr Sargsyan pledged in August last year to form a "government of national accord". A senior RPA figure subsequently clarified that the president hoped to put together a "broad-based" coalition after the 2017 election.

RPA has sought to neutralise nationalist vote

Another potential source of support for the RPA and Mr Sargsyan is Armenian Revival (formerly called Country of Law), a populist party led by Artur Baghdasarian, the former secretary of Armenia's National Security Council. The party was represented in Mr Sargsyan's government from 2008‑14 but now claims to be in opposition. Mr Sargsyan should also be able to count on the backing of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF, also known as Dashnaktsutiun), a nationalist party that is particularly influential in Armenia's diaspora. In February 2016 the ARF struck a coalition accord with the RPA that gave it three ministerial portfolios.

Genuine opposition parties are weak and fragmented

Meanwhile, the more hardline opposition groups remain divided and hamstrung by a weak grassroots structure across much of the country, despite their efforts to form electoral alliances. In December 2016 three opposition parties, Republic, Bright Armenia and Civil Contract, sought to form an alliance. Two of them, Republic and Bright Armenia, have a pro-Western orientation. Civil Contract has a more ambiguous foreign policy agenda, although it is critical of Armenia's close ties with Russia. Civil Contract's 41‑year‑old chairman, Nikol Pashinian, is clearly the most charismatic and popular figure in the bloc. Mr Pashinian set up his party in 2015 after splitting from another major opposition force, the Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by Levon Ter-Petrosian, another former president. Mr Ter-Petrosian was the main opposition candidate in the 2008 presidential election but has since lost much of his popular support.

Another opposition alliance taking shape now looks set to bring together several former officials: Vartan Oskanian and Raffi Hovannisian, both former foreign ministers and the leaders of Unity and the Heritage Party respectively; Victor Dallakian, until recently a deputy chief of the presidential staff; and Seyran Ohanian, who was dismissed as defence minister in October last year. However, the electoral prospects of this alliance look relatively poor.

Reform deal

Underlining Mr Sargsyan's apparent confidence, the Armenian authorities agreed in mid-2016 to enact a set of opposition-backed amendments to the Electoral Code aimed at minimising electoral fraud. The US and the EU have hailed the amendments, promising to provide up to US$10m for the purchase of special electronic equipment that is due to be installed in all polling stations across the country.

The anti-fraud measures are designed primarily to tackle multiple voting by government loyalists, which opposition representatives claim has been a source of significant electoral fraud in favour of the ruling party in the past. Even if the amendments are successful in reducing electoral fraud, the parties will not enjoy a level playing field, given the RPA's control of state institutions and media, and their much more substantial resources. The fact that the second-largest party offers only nominal opposition to the government, while genuine opposition parties are weak and divided, also plays into the hands of the RPA. Barring an outbreak of grassroots post-election street protests—which appears unlikely but cannot be entirely ruled out—the RPA and Mr Sargsyan look set to retain their control of Armenia's political system.