After a Super Tuesday that proved to be something less than super for Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator is now poised to rattle off a handful of wins this weekend – an outcome that would inject a dose of desperately needed adrenaline into his campaign.

Three of the four states voting this weekend are in the Sanders sweet spot: Kansas, Maine, and Nebraska are caucus states with largely white populations. The one state where Sanders figures to perform poorly is Louisiana – which holds a primary election where African-Americans will cast roughly half the vote.


A strong Sanders performance this weekend won’t dramatically improve his chances of winning the Democratic nomination or close the delegate deficit he currently faces against Hillary Clinton. But a series of victories would provide a burst of momentum on the eve of the Michigan primary, a contest that the Sanders campaign has identified as pivotal.

"If you could put those together and win Michigan, I think you've got the beginnings of 'hey, maybe we shouldn't be closing the door yet,'" said Joe Trippi, a veteran presidential campaign Democratic strategist and the former campaign manager for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's presidential campaign.

Through his schedule and commitment of resources, Sanders has already telegraphed his intent in the three states where he’s running competitively against Clinton. His first stop after Super Tuesday was Maine, which will hold Democratic caucuses on Sunday. And more than one-fifth of his ad spending since March 1 has been devoted to TV, cable and radio in Kansas and Nebraska. By contrast, Sanders didn’t spend a cent on ads in Louisiana.

There hasn’t been much polling in the states voting this weekend. But the demographics of Kansas, Nebraska and Maine -- and his victories in the Super Tuesday caucus states of Minnesota and Colorado -- explain why there’s widespread agreement that Sanders is competitive in all three states.

In Kansas and Nebraska, Sanders’ economic message fits in with a long line of bank and corporation-bashing prairie populists. He has also sought to highlight his call for expanding Social Security and his opposition to the Keystone pipeline, which would run through both states. Clinton had avoided taking a position on the issue until September, when she announced her opposition.

While Clinton has support from big-name Kansas Democrats such as former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas, Nebraska and Maine went for Barack Obama in 2008, leading to a high level of optimism among Sanders’ Kansas backers.

"As a Bernie organizer and as someone working on Bernie's campaign it's incredibly hard to imagine him not winning," said Shelby Iseler, the Kansas state director for the Sanders campaign, likening Kansas to neighboring Oklahoma, one of four states Sanders won on Super Tuesday.

For Sanders, Douglas County – home to the liberal college town of Lawrence and the University of Kansas -- is central to his plan.

"I think Bernie will carry this part of Kansas,” said Curtis Hall, the Douglas County chairman, adding that populous, nearby Wyandotte County – which is about 25 percent African-American -- appeared to be a heavier lift for Sanders.

It's a similarly close call in Nebraska, where Sanders campaigned on Thursday.

"Senator Sanders is here today claiming that they expect to win and I think they probably have an advantage. Overall, I think they've been expecting to win Nebraska for a while," said Barry Rubin, a former executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party. "But I can tell you based on just what I'm seeing the Clinton campaign's been on the ground here for quite some time now and they have some really competent organizers working throughout the state and I know they're working hard to earn the vote of caucus goers. So I would not be surprised to see Secretary Clinton doing better than expected."

Nebraska Democratic Party Chairman Vincent Powers, pointing to a scheduled upcoming visit from former President Bill Clinton on Friday as evidence of a last minute push in a close state.

"I think Sen. Sanders' campaign understands that coming off Super Tuesday he has to win in a state like Nebraska. And Secretary Clinton is saying 'hey, that's not going to happen.'" Powers said. "I don't think President Clinton is coming here unless it's close."

In Maine, the Sanders campaign is hoping to flex its New England muscle again -- the senator won big in Vermont and New Hampshire, and narrowly lost in Massachusetts.

"I've seen one poll recently and Sanders did come out on top. I think that's probably the operating assumption here," Maine Democratic Party executive director Jeremy Kennedy said.

Even with the strong progressive bent of the state’s largest city, Portland, Kennedy cautioned that the state is no lock for Sanders.

"I don't think the Clinton campaign would have sent I don't know how many staffers up here. They've opened up four offices, they have like 20 or 30 staffers here. They wouldn't have put all these resources into Maine if they didn't think it was up for grabs,” he said. “And it's a delegate grab. Everyone's trying to get every delegate that they can. So even if you don't win, you're still racking up the total."

David Farmer, a Maine-based Democratic operative and a former senior adviser for Rep. Mike Michaud's 2014 gubernatorial campaign, said Sanders drew large crowds in recent Maine appearances.

"I don't think [the Super Tuesday results] will turn the caucuses in Maine around in her direction," Farmer said. "I just think the energy on the Bernie side to go out and caucus is such that they are going to draw their people out...The Bernie team on the ground has been working hard. And I just don't think the big wins in the South are going to change the outcome here."

There’s much more certainty about the outcome in Louisiana – nearly everyone agrees it will be Clinton Country on Saturday. Louisiana has the nation’s second-highest population of African-Americans and, according to one recent Public Policy Polling poll, Sanders is losing black voters there by a huge margin.

“It's highly likely that she will win every congressional district and it's proportionate so she'll get the delegates from those districts,” said state Democratic Party Chair Karen Carter Peterson, a state senator and Clinton backer who points to Clinton’s support among big-name Democrats such as the Landrieu family and Rep. Cedric Richmond.

For Sanders, though, the key will be to run the table on the other three states within reach this weekend. A collection of wins would not only change the narrative after his Super Tuesday losses, it would refuel his small-donor juggernaut and bolster the senator’s argument for remaining in the race.

"I totally believe it will give him cover to continue," Trippi said. "The only thing that'll break out beyond that is combining some good showings with" wins later on in must-in contests like Ohio, Michigan, and Florida.