Air crash in Iran: a tragedy against the backdrop of an expanding war



So, in Iran, the plane of the Ukrainian airline UIA crashed. All passengers on board, including 15 Ukrainians, were killed.



Happen this tragedy on any other day, the first thing that came to mind is the very fact of a terrible catastrophe after the New Year and Christmas period. But, not this time.



As you know, Iran fired 22 missiles at US military bases in Iraq tonight. This circumstance to a large extent corrects the versions and makes us look for other causes of the tragedy, and not just corny - a malfunction.



Now there is a version in the media that Iran could mistakenly shoot down an UIA plane, mistaking it for the American strategic bomber B-52N. It was these bombers that were sent to the island-base of Diego Garcia.



However, it is difficult to imagine that the Iranian air defense, which is almost constantly on alert, mixed up a civilian airliner with a bomber. And this version has the right to life if only the intentional destruction of the aircraft is taken into account.



On the other hand, such an act was to pursue strictly defined goals, primarily informational ones. And as we can see, Iran itself was literally stunned by the message about this disaster.



The option of a terrorist act also has the right to life. Indeed, examples when civilian airliners exploded against the backdrop of international confrontation have a place in history. For example, in the memory of experts, a bomb blast aboard the aircraft of the American airline Pan Am in December 1988, carried out by Libyan terrorists.



But, not even a single bomb on board is limited to this version. After all, there could have been a defeat from MANPADS on take-off. Given that the plane headed for takeoff crashed the same course, the defeat from MANPADS also has the right to life.



But, in this case, the perpetrators of the terrorist attack, or those who stand behind it, such as ISIS or some third conditional terrorist organization, have not announced their statements and declarations of worldview relayings. Perhaps these will be announced, but still, the very version of the attack will be left in reserve for the case of the development of deeper scenarios in this direction and the emergence of new details.



But what is most interesting is the fact that the crash of the airliner coincides with the rocket fire of US military bases in Iraq. And here one moment is important, out of 22 Iranian missiles fired at US bases, it didn’t burst - 4.



First of all, this speaks of the very, very dubious quality of the Iranian missile weapons. The second very important point is the minimal losses among the personal and maintenance personnel of the bases.



It is reported only about the wounded, but not killed. And the shots from the places of shelling demonstrate that some of the missiles simply collapsed outside the boundaries of military facilities. That is, the accuracy of Iranian missiles also raises serious doubts.



And now, don’t say, but the probability that an Iranian missile could by mistake, either due to a crooked path or deviation from the course, hit a Ukrainian plane sounds much more sane than an accident due to a technical malfunction in the night rocket fire and in the country that carried out this shelling.



Of course, the investigation will draw the final line under this tragedy, but in this case there is also a dilemma. Investigations of Boeing disasters are also carried out by company specialists who are leaving for the crash site right there, but, in the context of the current relations between the USA and Iran, it seems that the Iranian side will be in charge of the investigation.

https://uc.od.ua/columns/1533/1222451