The Rise of the Transatlantic Left

Something dramatic is happening on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US Democratic Presidential race and the UK Labour leadership contest we are witnessing a dramatic rise in support for anti-establishment candidates, Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn.

Superficially, these two men should represent the established political class. Aged 73 and 66 respectively, these men are career politicians but they have, throughout their careers, battled against social and economic injustice set in stone by the consensus politics instilled in the US and UK since the Reagan and Thatcher era. Stagnant wage growth, anti-union legislation, astronomical increases in education costs, wars in Iraq & Afghanistan, higher energy costs from privately owned utilities, corporate tax avoidance, bank bailouts and austerity (as a result of the financial crash), has crippled both economies and the prosperity of the US and UK’s working/middle-class.

For the first time ever, our children will grow up to be worse off than we are. For the first time since the Victorian era we have a ‘working poor’, where, despite working full time hours, wages are so poor workers need to rely on charitable or state assistance. That is of course if budgets have survived austerity cuts. Things are so out of kilter in both economies people need change. Not the rhetoric of Obama’s “Change” of 2008 or Ed Miliband’s uninspiring, austerity-light, “One-Nation Britain” of 2015, but fundamental economic and social reform. Something both countries have not seen since the post Second World War settlement. There is fertile ground for a grassroots mass movement in both countries.

If, twelve months ago, I was told that Bernie Sanders would start to threaten Hillary Clinton’s huge leads in early voting states I would have laughed you out of the room. Now he has overtaken Clinton in the polls in New Hampshire and is now (30th Aug 2015) only 7% behind in the polls in Iowa.

If, twelve months ago, I was told Labour would lose the 2015 General Election comprehensively and the centre-left Ed Miliband would be replaced by the rebellious socialist Jeremy Corbyn, I would have dismissed you as a complete and utter political fantasist. He entered the leadership race a 100/1 outsider. Now he is destined to take over the reins of the UK Labour Party as his lead in the polls seems unsurmountable.

We live in unpredictable times, and the rise of the transatlantic left in Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn are the embodiment of it. The question is, can Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn galvanise enough support to give them mass appeal and make them electable on the national stage? To stand any chance they need to tackle political apathy in both jurisdictions.

Political Apathy

I was once told that “bad candidates are elected by good citizens who don’t vote”. There is a truth in this. Both the Democrats and the Labour Party have always had difficulty in getting their ‘core’ vote out or appealing to a wide enough spectrum of low-income citizens to get out and vote.

2012 US Presidential Election

54.9% of the electorate voted

106,013,000 Americans failed to cast their vote

2015 UK General Election

66.1% of the electorate voted

15,737,000 British citizens failed to cast their vote

11,335,000 British citizens voted for the Conservative Party (36.9% of total votes cast)

#FeelTheBern Phenomenon

During the Democratic National Committee’s Summer Meeting in Minneapolis Bernie Sanders made a very real and substantial point. The Republican Party did not win the 2014 elections the Democrats lost them. Sanders argued that America, needs a grassroots campaign which can result in real change. Something perhaps it has not seen since the civil rights movement. To achieve that, turnout would have be 65% and above. Achievable? Never say never.

The electoral paralysis in Washington, the swaths of corporate cash backing political campaigns has made so many potential voters in America apathetic. Bernie Sanders is a different beast however. He was brilliant at increasing voter turnout during his election campaigns for Mayor of Burlington and his Senate campaigns for Vermont and he does not accept corporate cash. He is a fierce critic of “corrupt politics” (Sanders’ reference) in America where the so called “billionaire class” buy state and national elections. Sanders has always been a prominent figure in campaign finance reform, women’s rights, wage equality, a living wage, free 3rd level education, the punitive American justice system, social security, benefits for army vets and many more. So many issues that resonate at the heart of working/middle-class America. Many were oblivious to his ideas, his work, and his anti-establishment credentials. People are starting to take note and it may draw people to vote.

He entered the Democratic Presidential race on 3% on the Democratic national poll, now (27th Aug 2015) he stands at 26.3%. Hillary Clinton during the same period has seen her lead fall from 64.4% to 48.7%, as she fights, not Sanders, but an FBI investigation into her emails. People are latching on to his message.



Likewise in the UK, Jeremy Corbyn, is destined to be elected leader on September 12th.

#JezWeCan Against the Odds

The 2015 General Election was Labour’s second electoral defeat on the bounce. Many of their once staunch supporters stayed at home, switched allegiance to the Green Party (1.1 Million votes), UKIP (3.8 Million) and most notably in Scotland to the SNP (Labour had 41 seats in 2010, 1 seat in 2015). The UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system takes no prisoners in multi-party politics. What the electoral result shows is that Labour offered no real alternative to the Conservatives, and by endorsing the austerity agenda during the election campaign they did little to appeal to their base. During the Blair/Brown years, the party compromised so much to win the centre ground that it has left many today disillusioned, vying for a real alternative to neo-liberal policies. Something Jeremy Corbyn has always opposed.

It was New Labour under Blair that introduced tuition fees. Now expected to reach £10,000 per year during this parliament. They failed to build any social housing, contributing to a huge housing shortage and massive increases in private rents. They deregulated the banking sector with disastrous consequences. Did nothing to reverse the Thatcherite assault on trade union bargaining. They started the process of the gradual privatisation of the NHS through PFI contracts and many other policies which have entrenched vast amounts of wealth for a very few, whilst the living standards of the majority of people have steadily stagnated and deteriorated since the Conservatives have entered office in 2010.

When Labour members are given the choice between two candidates who were part of the New Labour government (Burnham & Cooper), one candidate who embraces these policies (Kendall), or Corbyn who has always opposed them, then it seems pretty obvious who the core of the party will vote for. The candidate who offers an alternative.

Already, as Corbyn travels the country meeting Labour members his meetings are packed, not on Bernie Sanders’ scale but packed compared to his other three opponents. He has been accused of being unelectable, and his economic policies as “Alice in Wonderland stuff” (Tony Blair). In fact his anti-austerity policies have had the backing of prominent economists such as David Blanchflower, former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee who stated:

“The accusation is widely made that Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters have moved to the extreme left on economic policy. But this is not supported by the candidate’s statements or policies. His opposition to austerity is actually mainstream economics, even backed by the conservative IMF. He aims to boost growth and prosperity.”

The key to Jeremy Corbyn’s success is his message and he will get very little room to manoeuvre from the UK’s feverish and renowned right-wing press. But, should he be Labour leader he has four years to reintegrate, reinforce and replenish the radical nature of a movement the UK needs now more than ever. He has been underestimated before. Underestimate this guy at your peril.

The Future

Joseph Stiglitz aptly describes the rise of the transatlantic left:

“I am not surprised at all that there is a demand for a strong anti-austerity movement around increased concern about inequality. The promises of New Labour in the UK and of the Clintonites in the US have been a disappointment… Unfortunately the centre-left parties have wimped out. They have joined in saying: ‘Oh yes, we have to have a kinder version of austerity, a milder version of austerity’… The bottom 90% of the economy (USA) has seen stagnation for a third of a century and similar trends – not as bad – are at play elsewhere”.

There is no doubt there is a vacuum to be filled for more liberal minded voters and a swath of apathetic voters on both sides of the Atlantic that there is a very real alternative to the status quo.

Keep your eye on the rise and rise of Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn. You’re going to be in for one hell of a ride!

Sources:

Voter Turnout UK http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

Bernie Sanders Faces Skepticism From Democratic Insiders

Jeremy Corbyn: like Bernie Sanders, UK politician is shaking up the mainstream

3 reasons Bernie Sanders is now the Democratic front-runner

Bernie Sanders breathes life into Democratic presidential contest

Bernie Sanders Draws Big Crowds to His ‘Political Revolution’

http://www.jeremyforlabour.com/

IMF Discussion Paper: Inequality and Labor Market Institutions – July 2015 (Well worth a read regarding the decline in wages due to anti trade-union legislation over the past 30 years)

Jeremy Corbyn has reminded Labour at last why austerity must be opposed

Reversing Political Apathy in the UK

Capitalism, Neoliberalism and “Too Big To Fail”

https://berniesanders.com

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