The US-based Centre for Disease, Dynamics and Economic Policy (CDDEP), has in its report dated April 20 said India’s total SARS-COV-2 infections up to September could be as high as 111 crore, even with “hard lockdown, continued social distancing and isolation of cases”. Even this number is the average of the expected range between 55-138 crore.

The range covers 50-150 per cent of the point estimate. “Estimates are based on latest available data but, given the novelty of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, these estimates still have some inherent uncertainty,” the report says.

The report, titled SARS-COV-2 in India: Potential Impact of the Lockdown and Other Longer-Term Policies, observes that “emerging evidence suggests that asymptomatic or mild infections may account for a significant proportion infected population.”

It further notes that many other countries such as China, Italy, the US, the UK and Spain showed sudden explosion in cases after a long period of few cases “indicating the possibility of many undetected cases.”

Projected Total Values for Scenarios through September 2020

Baseline Total Hospitalizations Total Hospitalizations Peak Symptomatic Non-Hospitalized Infections Total infections Total Infections Baseline 1,14,11,840 (57,05,919-1,71,17,759) 19,01,97,331 (9,50,98,665-2,85,295,996) 1,26,79,82,208 (63,39,91,104-1,38,00,04,385) Moderate lockdown Moderate Lockdown 1,10,19,226 (55,09,613-1,65,28,839) 18,36,53,775 (9,18,26,887-27,54,80,662) 1,22,43,58,499 (61,21,79,249-1,38,00,04,385) Hard lockdown Hard Lockdown 1,10,19,192 (55,09,596-1,65,28,788) 18,36,53,200 (9,18,26,600-27,54,79,800) 1,22,43,54,668 (61,21,77,334-1,38,00,04,385) Hard Lockdown and Continued Social Dist Hard lockdown, continued social distancing/isolation of cases ancing/Isolating Cases 1,00,53,568 (50,26,783-1,50,80,351) 16,75,59,460 (8,37,79,729-25,13,39,189) 1,11,70,63,067 (55,85,31,533-1,38,00,04,385)

It may be remembered that the same body had brought out a similar report on March 24, in which it said that India cases could be between 12-24 crore, a number that represents peak infections on one day (and hence not comparable to the 111 crore infections, which is the cumulative infections since the pandemic began in India).

The report advocates continuation of tight restrictions. “Restrictions would need to be tightened often to avoid a high peak of infections and hospitalisations,” it says, noting further that “fragmented frequent changes in lockdown policy or fragmented policies (states vs states and state vs centre) can result in policy confusion and community fatigue for enforcement.”