Greater Toronto doesn’t have just one housing market — it has several, says TD Economics, and they’re not all moving in the same direction.

“We expect homes sales and price growth to cool gradually over the next few years,” the bank says in a new report.

But some sectors will cool faster than others: “The condo market is likely bear the brunt of the housing slowdown,” the report says.

In fact, it says, condo prices are likely to drop 4 per cent in each of this year and next, while single detached home prices edge 2 to 3 per cent higher.

Not everyone agrees with the bank’s assessment; Shaun Hildebrand, vice president of condo consulting firm Urbanation, calls the TD projections “extreme.”

The TD report stresses that the GTA market has different elements, moving in different directions.

Prices for detached single homes rose 12 per cent in the past year, it notes, but that wasn’t because of strong demand — in fact, the number of sales fell. Rather, it’s because there are few listings.

Even the detached home market isn’t uniform: Most of the deals are resales. The GTA saw only 9,000 sales of newly constructed single detached homes, out of 43,000 total sales. By contrast, in 2002, GTA buyers snapped up 22,000 newly constructed single detached homes.

While low supply supports strong prices in the single detached market, condominiums are a different story, says TD.

“In the new condo market, supply has been outstripping demand,” the report says; and that trend will only get stronger.

TD estimates that 70,000 new units will be completed this year and next. That’s twice the pace of the historical average. Most have been sold, but 9,000 are still looking for buyers.

Nearly all of the new condos are in high-rise buildings; those units are also competing with resale condos, which are both larger and cheaper than the new supply coming on the market, says TD.

The price difference is substantial, according to TD, which says on average, resale condos are $100,000 less expensive. That works out to $300 per square foot for resales, against $545 per square foot for new condos.

Hildebrand said in an interview that TD is over-reading the market signals. For example, it’s unlikely that 70,000 new condos will actually be delivered in the next two years, he said. “We’re not going to get anywhere near 70,000 completions,” he said. “The actual number of completions never comes anywhere close to what’s scheduled.” He expects the number of completions to be more like 40,000 over the two years.

Nor can he see condo prices declining 4 per cent against 2013 levels. Prices last year were weak, he said, and they’ve actually rebounded this year. For the market to give up this year’s gains and drop 4 per cent against 2013 levels would require a drop of something like 10 per cent from where prices are now, he said.

“The trend just isn’t moving that way right now; the market is very much balanced,” he said.

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TD says one area of condo strength remains in the Toronto core. “Over the last decade, a shift into the downtown core by young professionals has helped drive demand for condos in the area,” the bank says.

That’s not the case for the recent condo market in the suburbs, it says: “Condo sales in areas closer to the outskirts and 905 area experienced a sharp drop in condo sales.”