AAP has touted its 2020 manifesto as ‘Kejriwal ka Guarantee Card’. Going by the track record since 2015, such a guarantee card would actually guarantee a 75% failure rate of all the promises made by Kejriwal to Delhi. An objective analysis of AAP’s manifesto of 2015 reveals that Kejriwal’s government has not been able to implement 75% of its manifesto promises (based on average implementation % in the analysis of raw data). For a party that often invokes the maxim ‘Jo kaha so kiya’, a more apt catchphrase could be ‘Jo Kaha uska 25% kiya’.

Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal has claimed that he will seek votes on the track record of his government’s performance in Delhi since 2015. He has also claimed that apart from Full Statehood, his government has delivered on all 70 promises made to the people.

Let’s take an objective look at AAP’s declared manifesto promises of 2015 and how the Kejriwal government has fared in fulfilling each of the promises. In this analysis, every Manifesto promise has been first broken down into tangible measurable targets that the manifesto mentioned, and open-source data was gleaned to determine the fulfilment of the target as also % implementation where ratios were available. Let’s take the example of AAP’s Manifesto Promise #9, ‘Water as a Right’, which entailed piped water to 14 lakh households and access to clean drinking water. Both the measurable targets have not been met, as this Reuters report from July 2019 clearly outlines the disparity in water availability between the rich and the poor in Delhi, the wanton use of tankers to overcome water shortage, indicating a complete lack of piped water supply to all households and a woeful inadequacy in clean drinking water even for the rich. This Reuters report also effectively counters AAP tracker portal’s claim updated in January 2017, that all households including unauthorized colonies would get piped water connections by December 2017.

Read: 1 school approved vs 500 promised, fall in DTC buses, 0 new hospitals, fake surveys: RTI replies reveal Kejriwal hasn’t fulfilled major election promises

The entire analysis is based on open source reports spanning across 80+ news articles reflecting the latest availability status of each promise. The study also analyzed AAP’s own tracker portal of its promises, which unsurprisingly stopped posting updates since February 2017, possibly because the lack of real measurable progress was glaring on most of the promises made. In the case of most promises, the AAP Tracker seems to post either no updates or irrelevant updates to the promises made. Where the portal information was deemed accurate, it has been factored into the analysis.

Of the 70 promises made, the analysis could capture relevant source-based data to assess a fulfilment % for all but two of the promises, where no data was available. The promises have been classified accordingly to not skew the analysis.

The raw data for the analysis is available at the end of this article in a tabular format. Every manifesto promise has been studied to assign a fulfilment status of either – Fulfilled, Not fulfilled or Partially Fulfilled, after referring meticulously to open source data available on the reported achievements against the promises, and the source of the data considered is also attributed.

Results of the Analysis

Of the 70 promises made, Kejriwal has delivered fully only on 11 promises, while the bulk, 57, are either not fulfilled or at best only partially fulfilled at the end of the 5-year term.

Analyzing what Kejriwal could deliver, we see that promises that predominantly involved a Subsidy or a Budgetary Spend allocation were the ones Kejriwal was most adept at handling. For e.g., promises that encompassed Free Lifeline Water, Electricity bills to be reduced by half, Regulating Private School Fees etc. are the ones which involved a quick policy or subsidy announcement.

On these, Kejriwal indeed has delivered on his promise. It’s another matter that the cost of such subsidies, as highlighted in a Hindu Business Line study, in the case of the electricity subsidy is 1759 crores for 2018-19, and is potentially being recovered by effectively hiking tariffs for non-individual connections. The long term effects of such subsidies are yet to play out and the verdict is out on what such effects could entail.

On the flip side, analyzing what Kejriwal couldn’t deliver, we come to the heart of the governance challenges that plague Kejriwal – 80% of the promises that went unfulfilled, involved some administrative implementation components, i.e. promises that involved some element of services delivery beyond just passing of a legislation or declaring a subsidy or budgetary allocation, Kejriwal couldn’t deliver. Administrative implementation is Kejriwal’s ‘Achilles Heel’ so to say. E.g. Kejriwal had promised to ‘Build 200000 Toilets’ in its Manifesto promise #17.

The business today article highlights the abysmal situation wherein a CAG report has slammed the state government for not constructing a single toilet. A similar trend is observed on promise #19 to build ‘500 new government schools’, where it is widely acknowledged even by AAP’s Education Minister Manish Sisodia himself that only 25 schools have come up. AAP’s counter-position is to claim that over 1000 classrooms have been added, but the facts on promise #24 to ‘Ramp up govt schools’ show a woeful inadequacy of teachers as well, a problem that Kejriwal hasn’t been able to resolve. How the claim of the addition of classrooms ties up with a lack of teachers is anyone’s guess.

In 2015, Kejriwal committed to delivering on 10 promises, that involved a definite degree of coordination with either the Central Govt or neighbouring states. It is here that Kejriwal seems to have paid the price of his repeated run-ins with the LG office and the Central government, leading to a failure rate of 80% on delivering promises that needed some coordination with non-AAP entities.

Flagship schemes such as Jan Lokpal Bill, Swaraj Bill, Full Statehood for Delhi etc. are stuck in the tussle between Kejriwal and the LG. A fundamental leadership question arises – Why make promises that are not fully in your control in the first place. And if promises have been made where coordination is an absolute must deliver, why take an antagonistic stand towards the central government eliminating any chance of coordination?

In summary, Kejriwal’s model of governance entails high-performance issuance of doles and subsidies which merely need paperwork to be signed in the comfort of the home office possibly, but wherever matters entail administrative implementation or coordination with other entities, the failure rate is alarming.

In such a context, a flurry of new promises made in the hue of ‘Kejriwal ka Guarantee Card‘, must be assumed to come with a guarantee of at least 75% failure.

Following are the tables of promises fulfilled, not fulfilled, partially fulfilled or fully fulfilled.

The list of 48 promises that remain unfulfilled out of 70 promises.

Sl. No. Manifesto Promise Measureable Parameters of the Promise Salient points Promise Quality Status Status Information Source Date 1 Delhi Janlokpal bill Legislation to be passed Clarifications pending with State Executable in Coordination with Center or another state Legislation or Policy framing Pending May 1, 2018 2 Swaraj Bill Legislation to be passed Pending approval by LG Executable in Coordination with Center or another state Legislation or Policy framing Pending August 1, 2017 3 Full Statehood for Delhi Legislation to be passed Not possible to be done by State. Infeasible promise made as the State Govt. Executable in Coordination with Center or another state Legislation or Policy framing Pending January 1, 2020 5 CAG Audit of Power Discoms Policy Execution CAG Audit of Discoms shot down by the Court. DERC will instead do the audits. Promise unfulfilled. Executable by State Legislation or Policy framing Pending October 1, 2018 6 Delhi’s own power station Implementation Not initiated, only minor steps taken in some power augmentation at a sub station level. Executable by State Only Intent Announced January 1, 2017 7 Introduce Competition among Discoms Implementation Not in the state remit. Center is announcing a nationwide policy. Executable by State Only Intent Announced December 1, 2017 8 Delhi to be made a Solar City 20% of Delhi Energy to be met through Solar Policy announced, targets unmet. Pune is the Solar City of India with higher Solar Rooftop power, even with fewer households. Executable by State Bill or Policy Passed 9 Water as a Right Piped water to 14 Lakh Household

Access to clean drinking water Piped water not rolled out to all colonies. Tanker dependency still high.

Clean drinking water not available even for those with piped water. Executable by State Under Implementation July 1, 2019 13 Augmenting Water Resources Will initiate schemes for rainwater harvesting, recharge of wells, watershed development and soil-water conservation

Will revive Delhi’s water bodies like lakes, ponds and baolis, Rainwater harvesting is inadequately low, Lakes are in trouble. Executable by State Under Implementation March 1, 2019 14 Crackdown on Water Mafia clamping down on Delhi’s powerful water mafia

transparent tanker water distribution system by implementing state-of-the-art techniques June 2019, acute water shortage and Tanker Mafia was operating Executable by State Under Implementation June 1, 2019 15 Revive the Yamuna 100 percent collection and treatment of Delhi’s sewage Reports of sewage still being heavily dumped in the Yamuna, Yamuna quoted to 'dying'. Executable by State Only Intent Announced November 1, 2018 16 Promote Rainwater Harvesting AAP government will throw its weight behind rainwater harvesting and strongly push it in a top-down manner No rewards, only mandatory law announced that is poorly implemented, leading to a lack of rainwater harvesting with just 1200 units Executable by State Under Implementation September 1, 2019 17 Build 200000 Public Toilets Build 200000 Public Toilets CAG said not a single toilet built

Only 11000 even attempted by 2017 Executable by State Only Intent Announced April 1, 2018 18 Better Waste Management Adopt and encourage the use of good practices in waste management techniques from across the world.

Enforce the ban on plastic bags in the city Rebuked by NGT in 2017, no action taken Executable by State Under Implementation August 1, 2017 19 500 new govt schools 500 new govt schools Only 25 new schools built of the promised 500. Executable by State Under Implementation August 1, 2019 21 Twenty new Degree Colleges 20 New Degree Colleges 1 Pharma university created. No new colleges set up, only intake increased according to AAP Tracker

Plan junked according to HT Executable by State Under Implementation January 1, 2017 24 Ramp up govt schools to provide quality education Every school will have sufficient functional toilets built, especially for girls

Teaching and learning infrastructure including computers and high-speed Internet connectivity will be made fully functional in every school

Seventeen thousand new teachers will be hired to maintain full staff strength at government schools. Pulled by the court for 'pathetic state' of facilities in govt school (Scroll Report)

Shortage of teachers in govt schools called out in reports (Indian Express) Executable by State Under Implementation July 1, 2018 28 Adequate Street Lighting Ensure 100 percent lighting of streets across the city so that no miscreant or anti-social activity goes unnoticed. 30% of Delhi in Dark, Kejriwal Govt waking up in December 2019 to announce street light drive Executable by State Only Intent Announced December 1, 2019 29 Effective Last Mile Connectivity will provide effective last mile connectivity in Delhi’s public transit system, which will play a role in reducing the number of crimes against women AAP has announced only subsidies for E-rickshaws. Bus Feeders are met only to the tune of 25%. Last mile connectivity is poor Executable by State Only Intent Announced 31 Speedy Justice through 47 Fast Track Courts 47 FSTCs to be set up AAP govt is being pushed by the Court and Center to give approval to appoint judges, even the 16 FSTCs suggested by Center not set up Executable by State Under Implementation December 1, 2019 32 Empower Delhi Lawyers and Judiciary New judges will be appointed. We will make provisions for affordable housing for government counsels and lawyers practising in lower courts. Only funds sanctioned as per AAP tracker update. No confirmation Executable by State Under Implementation January 1, 2017 34 Surakhsa Button Suraksha/SOS button on every mobile phone. Central Govt has made moves on this. Not by AAP Executable by State Only Intent Announced February 1, 2019 35 Governance on the Mobile Phone All government services and forms will be made available online and on the phone No integrated Mobile governance. A few apps in DJB and others installed nothing more. Executable by State Under Implementation February 1, 2017 36 Delhi's Villages to Receive Special Attention Decisions regarding the development of Delhi’s villages will be taken by Gram Sabhas Swaraj bill not passed Executable in Coordination with Center or another state Legislation or Policy framing Pending 37 Pro Farmer Land Reform Section 33 and 81 of the Delhi Land Reform Act will be removed Only announcements made on legislation, not actually passed Executable in Coordination with Center or another state Legislation or Policy framing Pending June 1, 2016 38 Wifi Delhi Wi-Fi freely available in public spaces across Delhi 100 installed as of December out of 11000 to be installed Executable by State Under Implementation December 1, 2019 39 Delhi to be made a trade and retail hub will formulate trader-friendly policies and streamline rules and regulations for setting up and running businesses

will simplify compliance and licensing for traders and put in place a system of single window clearance

will also ensure that starting a trade or business in Delhi takes a maximum time of one week No significant bill passed by Delhi Executable by State Under Implementation December 1, 2016 41 Lowest VAT Regime lowest VAT regime in India VAT on Fuel is higher than neighbouring states.

Manifesto promise is largely irrelevant because of rollout of GST by Center Executable by State Under Implementation October 1, 2018 44 Delhi Skill Mission will create the first ever Delhi Skill Mission to train and enable one lakh youth per year for the first 2 years, ramping up to five lakh youth per year for the next 3 years. Only 1 skill center opened Executable by State Under Implementation February 1, 2017 45 Create 8 Lakh Jobs 8 lakh jobs in next 5 years 2 Job sumits organized, no quantified job creation. Executable by State Under Implementation 46 Delhi to be Startup Hub Will encourage startups by setting up business and technology incubators in universities and colleges

Also create three million square feet of affordable business incubation space. Only Announcement. No implementation

6 incubation centers set up in Delhi schools and colleges Executable by State Under Implementation March 1, 2016 47 Contractual Post to be Regularized will fill 55,000 vacancies in the Delhi government

4,000 doctors and 15,000 nurses and paramedics will be made permanent. Kejriwal declared this promise is dependent on Statehood Executable by State Only Intent Announced March 1, 2019 49 Reducing Pollution Delhi Ridge, the lung of the city, will be protected from encroachment and deforestation.

Environmentally appropriate afforestation would be carried out in all parts of Delhi in collaboration with the local Mohalla Sabhas

Acquire mechanized vacuum cleaning vehicles to clean the city.

Public transport will be improved to reduce the number of cars on the road. Odd Even Scheme doesn’t work. Afforestation hasn’t worked as per reports

Stubble burning and smog in Winters an annual crisis for 5 years now Executable by State Under Implementation 50 Unified Transport Authority ‘Unified Transport Authority’ will be established Apart from free rides for Women on Metro, no structured policy announced on Uniform Transport Authority Executable by State Only Intent Announced 51 Large Scale Expansion in Bus Services Expand bus services in the city on a massive scale, adding at least 5,000 new buses 500 less buses plying now than when Kejriwal came to power. Buses have not been ordered in time Executable by State Only Intent Announced November 1, 2019 52 Just and Fair Policy for E-Rickshaws AAP will formulate a clear policy and standards for the ownership and operation of e-rickshaws, keeping safety aspects in mind. AAP admits there is no regulation.

Only subsidies announced for E-rickshaws, no policy or regulation framed Executable by State Only Intent Announced January 1, 2017 53 Metro Rail 2.0 Will collaborate with the Indian Railways to extend and develop the Ring Rail service in Delhi. Phase 4 metro only budget cleared in 2017, in coordination with Center. Execution pending. Will take 6 years to complete Executable in Coordination with Center or another state Only Intent Announced January 1, 2017 55 Freehold of resettlement colonies Original allottees will receive ownership of their plots for just Rs. 10,000. Those who are not original allottees will get the ownership rights of their plots for less than Rs. 50,000 depending on their plot size. No construction started for JJ cluster only awarded completion certificates. Challenged in RTI. Executable by State Only Intent Announced January 1, 2020 56 Regularization and Transformation of Unauthorized Colonies Within one year of our government formation, these unauthorized colonies will be regularized and residents will be given ownership rights. Implemented by Center in Nov 2019. State could not implement this. Executable in Coordination with Center or another state Only Intent Announced November 1, 2019 57 Affordable Housing for All will construct affordable housing for lower income groups No proposal sent by State to the Center Executable by State Only Intent Announced December 1, 2019 58 In Situ Development of Slums Slum dwellers will be provided plots or flats in the same location as the existing slums. If that is not possible, they will be rehabilitated in the closest possible location. Less than 1% of Slum Dwellers Rehabiitated Executable by State Only Intent Announced October 1, 2018 59 Taking Care of our Senior Citizens The government will initiate a universal and non-contributory old age pension system immediately. Only announced, no implementation. Some elder care centers opened, no pension scheme initiated. Executable by State Only Intent Announced November 1, 2018 60 Controlling Price Rise stringent measures will be taken to prevent hoarding and profiteering. Our government will use the its full strength to stop black market operations, hoarding and speculative trading to curb the rising prices of vegetables, fruits and other essential commodities. Ration shops and the public distribution system will be corruption-free and shield the Aam Aadmi from rising costs. CAG pointed out corruption continuing in ration system Executable by State Under Implementation April 1, 2018 61 Drug Free Delhi make Delhi a completely drug-free state. We will prevent drug trafficking by means of tight monitoring and ensuring strict punishment for the guilty. Delhi in the Top 10 Drug consumption states on all parameters according to an AIIMS report in 2019 Executable by State Under Implementation February 1, 2019 64 Respecting our Ex-Servicemen AAP will stand by the nation’s ex-servicemen in their fight for “One Rank, One Pension”. Center has fulfilled. Promise irrelevant at the state level. Executable in Coordination with Center or another state Delivered July 1, 2018 65 Development and Equality for All Minorities We will bring transparency in the functioning of Delhi Waqf Board and ensure that encroachments on Waqf property by private parties as well as the government are removed. Accusations of Norms flouted in 33 appointments made to the Waqf board. LG has ordered a probe Executable by State Under Implementation July 1, 2019 66 Dignity to the Safai Karamchari Will end contractualisation in “safai karamchari” posts and will regularize existing employees. Workers who enter sewers will be provided with protective gear, masks and appropriate equipment. Like fire fighters, they will receive medical insurance Safai Karamchari Union has written to govt over continuing deaths Executable by State Under Implementation July 1, 2019 69 Promoting Punjabi, Sanskrit & Urdu An adequate number of teachers will be employed for teaching Urdu and Punjabi Punjabi and Urdu were already official languages as of 2003

Teacher shortage in Punjabi Urdu and Sanskrit cited in reports Executable by State Under Implementation July 1, 2019

The list of 9 promises that remain partially fulfilled out of 70 promises.

Sl. No. Manifesto Promise Measureable Parameters of the Promise Salient points Type of Promise Promise Quality Status Information Source Date (Latest found) 12 Water from Munak Canal Ensure adherence by Haryana High court pushed Haryana to deliver adequate water, based on DJB (which is under Delhi Govt)'s push. Water release still short of Delhi's needs Adminstrative Implementation Executable in Coordination with Center or another state May 1, 2019 23 Transparency in School Admissions To streamline the admission process, we will use a centralized online system for nursery admissions, removing avenues for corruption. Policy for centralized admission process announced.

No integrated transparency mechanism for admissions.

Adminstrative Implementation Executable by State January 1, 2017 26 Expand Healthcare Infrastructure 900 new Primary Health Centers (PHCs) and 30,000 more beds in Delhi hospitals, out of which 4,000 will be in maternity wards. 450 clinics opened thus far out of the promised 900 Adminstrative Implementation Executable by State January 1, 2020 27 Quality Drugs for all at Affordable Price Pharmaceutical drug and equipment procurement will be centralized to ensure zero corruption.

Generic, affordable and high quality drugs will be made available to the public. Essential Drugs only subsudized, implementation weak since the list of Essential Drugs has been shortened recently and does not cover all illnesses Adminstrative Implementation Executable by State May 1, 2019 30 CCTVs in Public Spaces and Buses Install CCTV cameras in DTC buses, bus stands and in crowded places as a deterrent against crime 105000 CCTVs out of 300000 claimed to be installed by AAP Adminstrative Implementation Executable by State December 1, 2019 33 Women's Security Force Mahila Suraksha Dal or Women’s Security Force made up of a 10,000 strong Home Guard Only Announcements made. No assessable ground level impact Adminstrative Implementation Executable by State November 1, 2017 48 Emphasis on Social Security ensure social security for workers in the unorganized sector; regulate wages, services and working hours of domestic workers and improve work conditions of rag pickers. Local Mohalla Sabhas will provide licences to street vendors and hawkers in designated spaces. No allocation on Social Security. Wages have been fixed as part of a policy announcement Adminstrative Implementation Executable by State May 1, 2018 63 Justice for Victims of Anti-Sikh 1984 Carnage notify the SIT that we had ordered in January 2014 to reinvestigate the 1984 anti-Sikh killings, particularly the involvement of high profile Congress leaders. Cases where investigations were not carried out properly or witness testimonies not recorded will be reopened. SIT has been notified. No results from the SIT, cases in court. SIT also constituted under guidance of SIT and Center. Adminstrative Implementation Executable in Coordination with Center or another state June 1, 2015 68 Promote Sports Culture will create new sports facilities, improve the existing infrastructure and provide coaching assistance to sportspersons. More than 3000 government school playgrounds will also be made available to the local community after school hours. A few sports complex have been set up and usage guidelines for school playgrounds have been notified Adminstrative Implementation Executable by State

The list of 11 promises out of 70 promises fulfilled by the AAP government.

Sl. No. Manifesto Promise Fulfilled? Measureable Parameters of the Promise Salient points Type of Promise 4 Electricity Bills Reduced by Half Delivered Subsidy Execution 200 Units of Electricty per Household Announced to be Free. Subsidy / Spending Policy Execution 10 Free Lifeline Waster Delivered Free lifeline water of up to 20 kiloliters (20,000 liters) to every household 20 KL Water free Subsidy / Spending Policy Execution 11 Fair and Transparent Water Pricing Delivered annual 10 percent hike in water tariffs will be abolished

abolish the C-1A (B) category to provide relief to households that run small shops No hike in tarrifs for the initial 2 years, Water tariff increased by 20% in 2017 for consumption above 20KL Subsidy / Spending Policy Execution 20 Higher Education Guarantee Scheme Delivered Student bank loans with the government standing as a guarantor. Policy announced and corpus of 30 crore allocated, banks being pushed to issue loans to students without collateral Subsidy / Spending Policy Execution 22 Regulate Private School Fees Delivered regulate private school fees by publishing the fee structures and accounts online. Capitation fee will be abolished. Supreme court verdict against Private Schools & ordered them to adhere to process of seeking Govt permission before fee hikes Subsidy / Spending Policy Execution 25 Increased spending on Education and Healthcare Delivered The total budgetary allocation will be increased accordingly. Increased focus and budgetary allocation on Health and Education Subsidy / Spending Policy Execution 40 No FDI in Retail Delivered Continue with its decision of not allowing FDI in retail in Delhi. Resolution passed in Assembly against FDI in Retail in Delhi Legislation to be passed 42 End of VAT Raids and Inspector Raj Delivered Stop VAT raids on Traders No VAT raids assured by Govt Adminstrative Implementation 43 Simplifying VAT Rules Delivered he 30 page long VAT form will be crunched into one page for traders DS-2 Form launched by Delhi Govt in 2016 Adminstrative Implementation 54 Fair arrangement for Auto Drivers Delivered will facilitate fast bank loans for the purchase of auto-rickshaws. Special trainings will be conducted for auto drivers to improve their overall conduct. Collateral Free loans for Auto Drivers Subsidy / Spending Policy Execution 70 Preserving our Heritage & Literature Delivered A public library or community-reading space will be created in every constituency of Delhi. Augmentation of School and Public Libraries Adminstrative Implementation