by KeenanParkerWomack

The Big XII this upcoming season looks to be a bit weaker than it was last season, where it had three teams finish in the top 10 in total offense and no teams fall within the top 25 in total defense. That should indicate what kind of conference you’re looking at. It’s full of air raids and West-Coast-style offenses, full of teams looking to pick you apart through the air.

The situation in the conference as far as whether it will stay afloat brings up many questions. Where will Texas and OU go if the conference goes belly up? What about the smaller teams in conference? Will they join mid-major conferences, or other Power-5 conferences? Who will take them in? Why does my dad stand in my doorway all night?

Last year, Oklahoma managed to make it to the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive year, after winning the Big XII for the fourth consecutive year. Will they repeat as champions of the conference? That’s for you to find out.

The following are my predictions, in order, of how the conference will play out.

10. KANSAS

Kansas stumbled blindly through a rough 2018 football season, their lone conference victory coming when they stole a road game from the already struggling TCU Horned Frogs; at that point, it’s not as much robbery as it is shoplifting.

On the season, KU performed like me after a date event: staggering back to campus from Sixth Street with an empty wallet and a girl’s fake phone number in my pocket.

Their lone guiding light, running back Pooka Williams Jr, was arrested for domestic battery in the offseason, and his future with the team remains uncertain. By extinguishing this solitary flame, it looks to be another dark night for the Jayhawks.

Despite the arrival of new head coach Les Miles, who won two national championships at LSU, there is simply an undeniable talent deficiency. With a bottom-20 class, it doesn’t seem that Les Miles has yet made a difference in the recruiting game either.

Add that to the fact that they only return 10 total starters, and you have a recipe of inexperience and lack of aptitude, a set of attributes that my girlfriend often tells me I have.

His offense doesn’t necessarily seem like a natural fit in the Big XII either. He likes to run a ball-control offense, utilizing more plays on the ground than through the air.

Contrasting this with the uptempo offenses in the Big XII run by schools like Texas Tech and Oklahoma leads to a singular conclusion: Kansas will have trouble keeping up.

Though the conference won’t be as tough as it was in 2018, with teams like West Virginia and Oklahoma State losing massive amounts of talent, Kansas still looks to be the team at the bottom of the barrel in 2019.

Floor: 1-11

Ceiling: 3-9

9. KANSAS STATE

Another team with a brand-new head coach in 2019 is the Kansas State Wildcats, who finished eighth in the Big XII in 173-year-old Bill Snyder’s last season. Snyder has been coaching since leather helmets, swords, and white-only sports teams, which must have been very boring to watch.

Bill Snyder as a young man during the Civil War

The new head coach at K-State, Chris Klieman, was the HC at North Dakota State, who won four titles in five years there, sporting a 69-6 overall record.

In a similar situation to Les Miles, going from a powerhouse to a middle-of-the-road football program, Klieman in my opinion has a much better chance to succeed, if nothing else because the base level of talent at KSU is much better than it is at KU.

Their recruiting class is ranked higher, and though they lose two of their best players in Dalton Risner and Alex Barnes, they still return seven offensive starters including their starting quarterback.

Though the defense returns eight starters, it was a unit that gave more than 400 yards of offense a game. Opponents averaged nearly 6 yards per play. If you can do math, you can figure out why that’s not good.

While down the road my spell success for the Wildcats, this year they look to be one of the struggling teams near the cellar.

Floor: 4-8

Ceiling: 7-6

8. TEXAS TECH

(Cue Old Town Road for this segment).

New head coach Matt Wells, who was two-time coach of the year in conference at Utah State, takes the reigns from former coach Kliff Kingsbury, who fell upwards into the Arizona Cardinals job in the most confusing hire since Baby A’s brought me on as a waiter.

A singular tear before my waiting shift started.

Texas Tech had incredibly successful seasons in basketball and baseball this year, and it seems like athletic director Kirby Hocutt has done it again.

The Red Raiders bring back quarterback Alan Bowman, but lose their top two receivers in Antoine Wesley and Ja’Deion High, who combined for over 2,200 yards last season. There is however a glimmer of hope with wide receiver T.J. Vasher, who caught this ridiculous pass last season against Ole Miss:

Odell Beckham Jr., Jr. I guess. I’ll workshop the nickname.

Defense is the real question mark for Texas Tech this season, as it has been for the last several years. With players like Patrick Mahomes tearing it up on offense in the past, it’s a shame that Tech has had so much trouble playing on the other side of the ball.

Giving up nearly 450 yards/game last year, good for 108th in the country, is not going to get it done, especially in the run ‘n’ gun conference that they play in. Because of this, I believe the Red Raiders will struggle this season.

Floor: 4-8

Ceiling: 7-6

7. WEST VIRGINIA

WVU had a successful season last year, though not as successful as some might have hoped after bringing back all-American wideout David Sills and all-conference quarterback Will Grier.

Not only do they lose their two offensive stars, but they also part ways with head coach Dana Holgersen, who probably drove drunk across the country to his new job as head coach at the University of Houston.

Though he wrote his plays out in cocaine on the glass bar of a strip club, Holgersen was and is a genius when it comes to running an offense, and this was evident last season as West Virginia tore people apart with their Grier-to-Sills connections, finishing second in conference and eighth in the nation in total offense.

They took down Texas on the road as well as nearly topping the supercharged Oklahoma Sooners team in a 59-56 thriller that looked more like a PlayStation matchup than an actual college game. That’s the Big 12 for you–the XBOX conference.

There are so many questions for West Virginia that it’s hard to even know where to begin. Though new head coach Neal Brown had great success at Troy, it’s difficult to project how his game will translate to the new league. Just because he’s the highest paid new coach in the Big 12 doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be the most successful.

Floor: 4-8

Ceiling: 7-6

6. OKLAHOMA STATE

The Cowboys were the most perplexing team in 2018, being a hair away from knocking off Oklahoma, while also taking out sixth-ranked Texas, West Virginia and Missouri. Much like Texas Tech, Oklahoma State paired a weak defense with an extremely high-powered offense, one that finished 10th in the nation in total offense at just over 500 yards per game.

Gone, however, is their star offensive player in running back Justice Hill. Also gone is quarterback Taylor Cornelius, meaning Oklahoma State will be starting either redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders or Hawai’i transfer Dru Brown.

Pair this with a defense that, while it returns eight starters, gave up nearly 450 yards a game last season (good for 97th in FBS), and you have a recipe for trouble. That’s why I’m picking Oklahoma State to finish sixth in the Big 12 this season.

While Mike Gundy’s mullet is good for a couple of wins every year, I think the loss of talent on the offensive side of the ball is going to take OSU from one of the best offenses in the nation to one that is good, but not stellar. Unfortunately, in the Big 12, stellar is necessary for success.

Floor: 4-8

Ceiling: 7-6

5. TCU

TCU is another question mark, not because of a coaching change, but because of their quarterback situation: they will most likely start redshirt freshman Justin Rodgers, but Alex Delton, a transfer from Kansas State, will also be in the mix. The rest of the offense is loaded, as they return top receiver Jalen Reagor, two leading rushers, and four out of their five starting offensive linemen.

While they lose six starters on defense, Gary Patterson is a defensive mastermind, with an IQ in football that’s higher than he wears his pants on his torso. They finished last season 27th in the country in yards given up per game, good for best in the Big 12. Considering the amount of high-powered offenses in the conference last year, being able to finish near top-25 in the country is a pretty impressive feat.

Mostly though, it comes down to quarterback play. If dual-threat Justin Rodgers is as good as advertised (the highest-rated recruit in TCU history), then they have a legitimate shot to compete for the conference title. This is why I’ve picked the Horned Frogs as my “dark horse” in the Big 12. If Rodgers can play above his expectations, then TCU will be a tough team to handle.

However, I think that Rodgers will struggle in his freshman season, because, well, most quarterbacks struggle in their freshman season. He may even be replaced by Delton at some point.

Had Shawn Robinson decided he was going to stay, I’d probably have the Horned Frogs ranked a bit higher. But with a rookie at the helm, I think TCU will remain in the middle of the pack in 2019.

Floor: 6-7

Ceiling: 9-4

4. BAYLOR

After a horrific scandal involving a disturbing amount of cases of rape and sexual assault, Baylor seemed to be in complete shambles before the tenure of Matt Rhule started. It’s a shock that he was able to recover as quickly as he did, as it looked to many, including myself, to be a program on the verge of total collapse.

Baylor is actually looking pretty good coming into the season. Quarterback Charlie Brewer had an impressive 2018 campaign, in which he threw for 3,000+ yards and 19 TDs, and though they lose some talent at wide receiver, they bring back a good amount of starters on both sides of the ball (15 returning).

The problem with Baylor, like every team in the Big 12 seemingly, is on defense. They ranked near the bottom of the country last season at 91st in total defense, surrendering 425 yards per game. If they’re going to exceed expectations this year, they need to tighten it up defensively. The good news for the Bears is that eight starters return from last season on this side of the ball.

Floor: 6-6

Ceiling: 8-5

3. TEXAS

After winning the Sugar Bowl last season, Tom Herman’s Texas Longhorns might finally be back. The key is returning junior quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who accounted for 41 total TDs in 2018 with only five interceptions while completing 64.7 percent of his passes.

The ‘Horns lose eight starters on defense, and lose a lot specifically on the defensive line. Not going to sit here and front, losing eight defensive players is a big deal.

But in a way there is some addition by subtraction here: Breckyn Hager, who was a good energy guy but not by any means a smart or efficient football player, is no longer on the team. And while I will miss his flowing locks and general ride-or-die attitude, I will not miss his lack of gap discipline.

Losing defensive linemen of the year in the Big 12 Chris Omenihu is a huge blow, as he was a solid and impressive player all season long for Texas, but sophomore Keondre Coburn has all the makings of a powerful DT to replace him.

The Longhorns also lose leading rusher Tre Watson as well as wideout Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who avenged the 2008 Michael Crabtree Texas-Tech-over-Texas catch with this catch to win the game on the road against the very same Red Raiders:

However, Texas does bring back wideout Colin Johnson, who is 6’6 and has hops like a basketball player. His nose for the ball in the endzone on jump passes will be an extremely useful skill come this season when the ‘Horns are within the 10 yard line.

The biggest position of concern for Texas is linebacker: losing blazing fast Gary Johnson is a major problem, as his speed helped him to stay behind slot receivers in the crazy array of Big 12 offenses. Luckily for them, they have possibly the best safety duo in the nation between Caden Sterns and Brandon Jones, two extremely physical players who not only can play deep but can come up and hit runners as well.

Though I think Texas has a shot this year, I think that next season, if Ehlinger stays, will be their year. Losing as much as they do off of a defense that finished 67th in the nation in 2018 is not a great recipe for success. Despite the abilities at safety, I think the ‘Horns will be in a lot of shootouts this year, meaning they will probably drop a couple of them.

Floor: 9-4

Ceiling: 12-1

2. IOWA STATE

Iowa State is a program that’s undergone a massive paradigm shift, from a team that used to regularly struggle with bowl eligibility to a team that can legitimately compete for a Big 12 championship. And while I still can’t figure out whether their mascot is a bird or a cyclone, which I ponder late at night sometimes while sweating profusely, it looks as if they’re poised for a successful season.

Me, thinking about Iowa State’s mascot

Coming off of an 8-5 season which featured an Alamo Bowl win over a then top-10-ranked Washington State team, the Cyclones return their entire offensive line and eight of their 11 defensive starters on a defense that finished 2nd in the Big 12 last year.

What they do lose, however, is an all-American-caliber running back in David Montgomery, as well as a talented wideout in receiver Hakeem Butler.

While these are both tough players to replace, there is no doubt that Iowa State’s offensive line can keep the offense moving along. Whenever teams return that kind of talent on the line, the running game is nearly always effective.

Matt Campbell is the man, man. He’s been at Iowa State since 2016; he struggled his first couple of years but since then has had Iowa State in the Big 12 champions conversation, specifically in the last two seasons, in which they tied for fourth and then tied for third, respectively.

It seems that this year, Iowa State has their best chance ever at a conference title. They will have the best defense in the conference, with studs like defensive linemen JaQuan Bailey and Ray Lima, linebackers Marcel Spears and Mike Rose, and safety Greg Eisworth.

These are all guys who are all-Big-12 talents. If they can play up to expectations, then Iowa State will be there at the end of the season.

Floor: 8-5

Ceiling: 11-2

1. OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma had the best offense in the country last season behind one of the best quarterbacks to ever play college football, Kyler Murray.

Pair that with a first-round talent at wide receiver in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown as well as all purpose wideout Ceedee Lamb and it’s no wonder that the Sooners washed defenses left and right. Last year their offense averaged a blistering 570 yards/game, averaging 8.6 yards/play.

But Kyler Murray isn’t around any more to smirk or throw touchdowns. Neither is Baker Mayfield to play tag with the Fayetteville Police Department. They do have Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts under center, and while this will be a step back for Oklahoma’s offense, they should still have no issue moving the ball with Hurts, running back Kennedy Brooks and receiver Ceedee Lamb.

Third-year head coach Lincoln Riley has been every bit as good so far as his predecessor, Bob Stoops. He has two trips to the College Football Playoff under his belt, sporting a record of 24-4 with only two losses in conference in his career. And this season looks to be not much different as far as wins and losses goes.

Despite the losses on offense, and despite the unimpressive performance on defense, finishing 101st in total yards, I think that the replacement defensive coordinator Alex Grinch will do a much better job than his predecessor. The Sooners also return 10 out of 11 starters, so inexperience will no longer be an issue.

Oklahoma will return much closer to the median this season, as their defense will improve and their offense will regress. But because of overall talent level, I think that Oklahoma will take a fifth consecutive Big 12 Title home.

Floor: 10-3

Ceiling: 12-1