Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Reform holds promise for a better Ohio congressional map

CLEVELAND, Ohio - A congressional district map that makes geographic sense. Political balance in line with Ohio's leanings. Competitive races so voters can hold politicians accountable.

All this is possible - if not more likely - under sweeping changes voters will be asked to approve in May as a way to end political gerrymandering in Ohio.

As part of the Out of Line series cleveland.com launched last summer to press for change in the way congressional districts are drawn, we applied the proposed rule changes to determine what a new map could look like.

The results are good.

Just glance at the side-by-side comparison below of Ohio's current congressional map of 16 districts, and what we came up with using the new rules for a 15-district map after the 2020 census, when Ohio likely will lose a seat in Congress.

Don't Edit

Ohio Secretary of State; Rich Exner, cleveland.com

A better map

This is what can happen with the right intentions, using the new rules the state legislature is proposing. On Tuesday, we'll offer a worst-case scenario, using the same rules that still allow lawmakers leeway in making judgments. (See Part 2: the bad map.)

Our emphasis was on creating compact districts that made sense based on regional ties, not on gerrymandering the map in favor of one party or the other.

Some highlights of the result:

Metro and rural areas of similar characteristics are generally kept together.

Up to six districts could be expected to produce competitive races.

The rest of the districts are largely Republican (five) or Democrat (four) not because of ill-conceived political design, but because people of like thoughts tend to live near each other.

Seventy-eight of the 88 Ohio counties are kept whole.

Just 10 counties are divided into two districts; none are split three or even four ways as currently is the case for both Cuyahoga and Summit counties.

No cities are split, other than a few cases where they cross county lines or, in the case of Columbus, where the city is larger than a single district.

Here's a district-by-district look how these districts shape up. (For details of how this was done, scroll to the bottom.)

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

1st District - Cleveland/suburban east

Largest cities: Cleveland, Cleveland Heights, Euclid, Garfield Heights, Maple Heights, Shaker Heights and South Euclid.

County: Cuyahoga County (part).

Political leaning: Strongly Democrat.

Current member of Congress: Democrat Marcia Fudge of Warrensville Heights.

Minority population: 57 percent.

Clevelanders, you're no longer split between two districts.

The entire city is in one district. Filling out the area to meet the population requirement of close to 769,000 are mostly eastern suburbs.

This district would be the most likely in Ohio to elect a minority member to Congress. Barack Obama carried close to 80 percent of the vote in these precincts in 2008. Minorities make up 57 percent of the district (blacks account for 49 percent), according to 2010 census data.

This area should have little problem meeting federal criteria for a district that allows a minority candidate to be competitive, plus the district likely would have a higher percentage of black residents when the 2020 census data is released.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

2nd district - Cleveland, suburbs and portions of Lorain County

Largest cities: Avon, Avon Lake, Elyria, Lakewood, Lorain, North Olmsted, North Ridgeville, North Royalton, Parma, Parma Heights, Rocky River, Solon, Strongsville and Westlake.

Counties: Cuyahoga (part) and Lorain (part).

Political leaning: Competitive.

Current member of Congress: None living in this district.

Minority population: 14 percent.

Many of these residents are now part of a district that stretches narrowly along the lakeshore from Cleveland to Toledo.

This proposed district is much more compact, mainly including western and southern Cleveland suburbs in Cuyahoga County, plus the northern portion of Lorain County.

This area could be an election battleground. History shows the Democrat Obama winning this area in being elected president and Republican John Kasich winning here in being elected governor.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

3rd district - Northeast Ohio

Largest cities: Ashtabula, Kent, Mentor, Niles, Painesville, Warren and Willoughby,

Counties: Ashtabula, Geauga, Lake, Portage (most) and Trumbull (most).

Political leaning: Competitive, slightly leaning Democrat.

Current members of Congress: Democrat Tim Ryan of Howland Township near Warren, and Republican David Joyce of Bainbridge Township in Geauga County.

Minority population: 9 percent.

This Northeast Ohio district stretches from eastern suburbs of Cleveland to just north of Youngstown, and also includes Kent State University.

Interestingly, the proposed district is home to two current members of Congress. But one of them - Tim Ryan - lives very close to the proposed Youngstown district to the south. While it is customary for congressional members to live in their district, the only requirement is that they live somewhere in Ohio.

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

4th district - Canton and Youngstown

Largest cities: Alliance, Canton, Massillon and Youngstown.

Counties: Carroll, Columbiana, Mahoning, Stark and Trumbull (small part).

Political leaning: Strongly Democrat.

Current member of Congress: None living in this district.

Minority population: 14 percent.

This proposed Canton-to-Youngstown district is now sliced and diced five ways, being represented by Republicans Bill Johnson, Jim Renacci, David Joyce, Bob Gibbs and Democrat Ryan.

Gone would be the irrational splits that have divided Stark and Portage counties each into three separate districts.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

5th district - Akron/Summit County, Medina County, portion of Lorain County

Largest cities: Akron, Barberton, Brunswick, Cuyahoga Falls, Green, Hudson, Kent, Medina, Stow and Wadsworth.

Counties: Lorain (part), Medina, Portage (small part) and Summit.

Political leaning: Competitive.

Current member of Congress: Republican Jim Renacci of Wadsworth.

Minority population: 16 percent.

Rounding out the Northeast Ohio portion of the state map is this Akron-to-Lorain area that demonstrates the potential for drawing compact districts that make regional sense.

Summit County would be kept whole in one district, instead of the current divide into four.

Medina County would go from two districts to one.

Lorain County would go from three districts to two.

This is a vast improvement. The six congressional districts that currently occupy this area spread over 31 counties from the Pennsylvania border to near Indiana.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

6th District - Toledo and lakeshore counties in Northwest Ohio

Largest cities: Bowling Green, Oregon, Perrysburg, Sandusky and Toledo.

Counties: Erie, Fulton (part), Lucas, Ottawa, Sandusky and Wood.

Political leaning: Strongly Democrat.

Current member of Congress: Republican Bob Latta of Bowling Green and Democrat Marcy Kaptur of Toledo.

Minority population: 21 percent.

The narrow strip of the current map known as the "Snake on the Lake" district - stretching from Cleveland to Toledo - is eliminated under this proposal.

Instead, the western lakeshore area would be placed in a district clearly anchored by the region's largest metro area - Toledo.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

7th district - Western Ohio's farmbelt

sLargest cities: Lima, Piqua, Sidney and Troy.

Counties: Allen, Auglaize, Champaign, Darke, Defiance, Fulton (part), Hardin, Henry, Logan, Miami, Mercer, Paulding, Preble, Putnam, Shelby, Van Wert and Williams.

Political leaning: Strongly Republican.

Current member of Congress: Republican Jim Jordan of Urbana.

Minority population: 7 percent.

A big chunk of Ohio's corn belt - flat land in mostly small counties in far western Ohio - gets its own district under this proposal. And it is solid red politically.

This district, and one just to the south, would be the most heavily Republican districts in the state - with Republicans historically out-polling Democrats about 2-to-1 in major races.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

8th district - Dayton and surrounding areas

Largest cities: Beavercreek, Centerville, Dayton, Fairborn, Huber Heights, Kettering, Miamisburg, Riverside, Trotwood and Xenia.

Counties: Greene, Fayette, Montgomery and Warren (part).

Political leaning: Competitive, leaning Republican.

Current member of Congress: Republican Mike Turner of Dayton and Republican Warren Davidson of Troy.

Minority population: 23 percent.

Dayton, the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and surrounding areas create a district that is rated competitive, though historically favoring Republicans in big races.

This area historically is Republican, though it could be competitive. When Obama was elected president, he narrowly lost this area but less than 10,000 votes out of nearly 200,000 cast. Kasich scored a solid win here in being elected governor.

Montgomery County, which accounts for about 70 percent of this district, went Republican in voting for Donald Trump in 2016, after voting Democrat in every previous presidential election going back to 1992.

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

9th district - North/Central Ohio

Largest cities: Ashland, Findlay, Mansfield, Marion, Marysville and Wooster.

Counties: Ashland, Crawford, Hancock, Holmes, Huron, Knox (part), Marion, Morrow, Richland, Seneca, Union (part), Wayne and Wyandot.

Political leaning: Strongly Republican.

Current member of Congress: Bob Gibbs of Lakeville in Holmes County.

Minority population: 7 percent.

Largely rural in nature, this district north of Columbus and south of the Cleveland and Toledo metro areas is solid Republican country.

Under the current map, the area is represented in Congress by Republicans Latta, Jordan, Renacci and Gibbs, and a soon-to be elected replacement for Republican Pat Tiberi.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

10th district - Columbus and some suburbs

Largest cities: Columbus and Reynoldsburg (the portion in Franklin County).

Counties: Franklin (large part).

Political leaning: Strongly Democrat.

Current member of Congress: None live in this district.

Minority population: 41 percent.

Columbus is too large to fit into a district, yet the language in the ballot proposal mandates attempts be made to include "a significant portion" in one district.

About 80 percent of Columbus fits in this district, which is rounded out by a few other places in Franklin County to keep the map contiguous.

This is the second most likely district to elect a minority to Congress. Democrat Joyce Beatty now represents much of this area, though she lives just outside the proposed district in Jefferson Township, according to voting records.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

11th district - Central Ohio, including Columbus suburbs

Largest cities: A small portion of Columbus, plus Delaware, Dublin, Gahanna, Grove City, Hilliard, Springfield, Upper Arlington and Westerville.

Counties: Clark, Delaware, Franklin (part), Madison and Union (part).

Political leaning: Strongly Republican.

Current member of Congress: Democrat Beatty of Jefferson Township and Republican Steve Stivers of Upper Arlington both just outside Columbus.

Minority population: 15 percent.

Suburban and Republican sizes up this Central Ohio district, which surrounds Columbus and extends into many fast-growing neighboring areas.

The district includes Ohio's wealthiest county of Delaware, where the median family income is just above $110,000.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

12th District - Cincinnati and Hamilton County suburbs

Largest cities: Cincinnati and Norwood.

Counties: Hamilton (nearly all).

Political leaning: Competitive.

Current member of Congress: Republicans Steve Chabot and Brad Wenstrup, both of Cincinnati.

Minority population: 31 percent.

Hamilton County, anchored by Cincinnati, is nearly an entire district. The only places excluded to meet population limits are Forest Park, Glendale and Sprindale.

Though represented in Congress by two Republicans under the currently gerrymandered map, Hamilton County has turned blue in presidential elections.

Democrats Obama and Clinton won Hamilton County in 2008, 2012 and 2016, after a string of Republican wins from 1968 through 2004.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

13th district - Cincinnati suburbs in Butler, Clermont, Warren counties

Largest cities: Fairfield, Hamilton, Lebanon, Mason, Middletown and Oxford.

Counties: Butler, Clermont, Hamilton (small part) and Warren (part).

Political leaning: Strongly Republican.

Current member of Congress: None living in this district.

Minority population: 14 percent.

While Hamilton County has become increasingly Democratic in recent years, this surrounding area of Butler Clermont and Warren counties remains solid Republican country.

Republicans have historically out-polled Democrats 2-to-1 in major races for the precincts included in this proposed district.

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

14th district - Eastern and Central Ohio

Largest cities: Lancaster, Newark, Pickerington (the portion in Fairfield County) and Zanesville.

Counties: Belmont, Coshocton, Fairfield, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, Monroe, Noble, Knox (part), Licking, Muskingum, Tuscarawas

Political leaning: Strongly Republican.

Current member of Congress: None currently living in this district.

Minority population: 7 percent.

Call this the National Road Corridor, linking eastern Ohio to near Columbus along the line of the old National Road (or today's Interstate 70).

This district is more diverse than some others on the proposed map. It includes industrial river cities such as Steubenville and coal country on the east, and stretches west to growing areas near Columbus.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

15th District - Southern Ohio

Largest cities: Athens, Chillicothe and Portsmouth.

Counties: Adams, Athens, Brown, Clinton, Gallia, Highland, Hocking, Jackson, Lawrence, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Pike, Pickaway, Ross, Scioto, Vinton and Washington.

Political leaning: Competitive, leaning Republican.

Current member of Congress: Republican Bill Johnson of Marietta.

Minority population: 5 percent.

A collection of 18 mostly small southern Ohio counties make up the final district.

This largely remote area off the beaten path of the interstate highway system includes nine of Ohio's 10 poorest counties, based on median family income.

Yet it is also home to Ohio University.

Don't Edit

Ohio Secretary of State

The fineprint

These cleveland.com maps were drawn using the same precinct data files state lawmakers used to create the current congressional map in 2011.

Population for these proposed districts, based on the 2010 census, range from 767,140 to 771,836. This difference of 4,696, or 0.61 percent from the target 769,100, is closer than the range the Supreme Court in 2012 approved as being close enough in a West Virginia case.

Criteria set out in the state constitutional amendment Ohio voters will be asked to approve in May were followed, including creating compact districts, keeping Cincinnati and Cleveland wholly within a district, and following county and city lines.

The constitutional amendment being proposed states that:

65 counties must be contained entirely within a district.

18 counties may be divided into two districts.

5 counties may be divided into three districts.

The sample maps drawn above go well beyond those limits, leaving:

78 counties contained entirely within a district.

10 counties divided into two districts.

0 counties divided into three districts.

Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner.

Don't Edit

Jackie Borchardt, cleveland.com

Previously: Analysis and details of proposed change

Think of the redistricting proposal this way: should it pass, the politicians will still have their hands in the cookie jar, but Grandma will be lurking around the corner trying to make sure no one gets more than their fair share.

Read analysis and more details at this link.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Previously: Emails, documents are stark reminder of Ohio's secret gerrymandering process

For weeks in 2011, state-paid contractors, on leave from their public jobs for Republican lawmakers, worked secretly in a hotel room described as the "bunker" to create political maps aimed at creating safe Republican districts for most of Ohio's congressional delegation.

Read report on how the maps were drawn in secret.

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Library of Congress

Previously: Gerrymandering 101, and why it needs fixed

Gerrymandering not only shapes districts in odd ways, dividing communities and ignoring local concerns, it severely limits the odds of a dissatisfied electorate from flipping control of Congress from one party to the other at election time.

Congress is not held as accountable as it could be.

Read at this link why gerrymandering matters.

Don't Edit

Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Previously: America's dubious tradition of gerrymandering

The practice of drawing legislative maps to benefit a politician or group has been a dubious American tradition since the days when the Federalist Party was still a going concern.

More than two centuries later, so-called gerrymandering is alive and well, perhaps to a greater degree than ever in Ohio.

Read about the history at this link.

Don't Edit

Rep. Jim Jordan website; cleveland.com illustration

Previously: Prisons are important pieces in Ohio gerrymandering

Ohio's clever gerrymandering in some cases has involved balancing the size of the districts by carefully assigning areas with thousands of adults who have no say at the ballot box.

Ninety-one percent of Ohio's prison inmates are in Republican districts, usually far from where they lived before being imprisoned, according to a cleveland.com analysis.

Read more about prison gerrymandering at this link.