In public political events, Kathleen Wynne and Justin Trudeau are Liberal allies, campaigning at each other’s side.

On public pensions, however, they are far from fully aligned.

For Ontario’s premier, Trudeau — the man who would be Canada’s prime minister — remains hard to read when it comes to the fine print of improving pensions.

In public and private, Trudeau has danced around the principle of an enhanced, mandatory public pension along the lines of the trusted Canada Pension Plan. With his party leading in the polls, the prospect of a Liberal government taking power after the next federal election could prove problematic for Wynne’s provincial ambitions.

Ontario has long lobbied to expand the CPP, which is capped at a mere $12,000 a year — well below the replacement levels needed for middle-income retirees. The late Jim Flaherty flirted with the idea of an improved CPP as federal finance minister, but was overruled by Stephen Harper a year ago.

Hence the conventional wisdom that the major obstacle to pension enhancement was always the prime minister. Now the problem is not just Harper’s obstinacy but Trudeau’s obfuscation.

Blocked by Ottawa last year, Wynne opted for her own made-in-Ontario alternative. In the spring election, she campaigned for a new supplementary pension modelled on the CPP so that it could one day be reintegrated with an expanded national pension plan if there were a change in government in Ottawa.

At least that was the plan. Now, there’s a problem: what if the federal government changed after the next election, but didn’t change its mind on pension reform?

If Trudeau fails to clear the air by embracing a straightforward CPP enhancement, Wynne could find herself politically isolated. And if the federal Liberals move in an entirely different direction, it could deal a fatal blow to the embryonic Ontario Retirement Pension Plan.

Pension reform can be complicated. The politics are even more complex.

Trudeau and his team remain enamoured of a new voluntary British system known as NEST. But NEST is more of a glorified savings plan than a true pension, allowing workers to opt out at will.

The Wynne government considered the British approach but ultimately rejected it: administrative costs are higher, enrolment is unpredictable, and future integration with the cost-effective CPP would be impossible.

Long after the provincial Liberals turned away from NEST, the federal party is still flitting back and forth. Trudeau has spoken approvingly of NEST in private meetings.

The federal Liberals pay lip service to Ontario’s mandatory model, but may yet kiss it off. Where will they land?

“That’s a very good question,” muses the designated Liberal spokesperson on pensions, MP John McCallum. He told me the party is still debating internally “whether it’s a NEST-type thing or a mandatory approach.”

“Ontario is going another route,” McCallum observed. “There certainly are attractions to that (NEST) model the British are doing,” he added, noting the political appeal of letting people opt out.

Hmmm. The Liberal hedging — and hemming and hawing — has caught the attention of Canadian Labour Congress president Hassan Yussuff, a passionate advocate for pension reform. For the past five years, the CLC has called for a doubling of the CPP to help the two-thirds of Canadians without a workplace pension.

Yussuff supports Ontario’s plan as “a good thing” in the absence of federal action because it largely mirrors the CPP model — and cautions against any departure from the CPP template. By contrast, he notes approvingly, the federal NDP has committed to an enhanced CPP model.

“When I did meet Justin, he did not say yay or nay,” Yussuff recalled. “We will keep the pressure on.”

The NDP’s pension critic in Ottawa, MP Murray Rankin, says the party has firmly rejected the NEST model, while the Liberals praised the voluntary British approach during a CPP debate in Parliament. Rankin also hails Ontario’s decision to “act in the absence of federal leadership.” (Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath was less understanding of Wynne’s plan in the last provincial election).

The premier won a mandate from voters, but is mindful of a pressure campaign from a powerful small-business lobby that staunchly opposes an expanded CPP. She must also be wary of the big financial houses, which will fight hard to protect their fat management fees from private retirement funds or a NEST scheme.

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The resistance from small business and big banks was to be expected. The bigger risk is that Wynne’s pension ambitions could become a casualty of friendly fire — from the federal Liberals.

Let’s see where Trudeau lands. And whether he sinks Wynne’s best-laid plans.

Martin Regg Cohn’s Ontario politics column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. mcohn@thestar.ca , Twitter: @reggcohn

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