Commentary

21:57 - I can't help wondering if the result in Fisher, and in Prahran at the Victorian state election, will make the Liberal party re-consider its opposition to optional preferential voting. The Liberal Party would have won both seats easily under optional preferential voting.

15/12/2014 10:01:10 PM - I've published the final figures on the results page. Nore that as the re-count was conducted after the amalgamation of all booth totals, there is a now a difference between the booths figures and the overall totals.

15/12/2014 9:56:09 PM - Twitter reports a 9 vote victory for Labor. Official figures to come.

15/12/2014 9:12:37 PM - More twitter reports on the distribution of preferences. Labor still ahead of Woodyatt at the key exclusion, but lead is down from 226 to 219 votes. Now for the final stage of the official preference distribution.

15/12/2014 9:05:51 PM - Out of today's count there will be a bundle of votes that have been disputed and either included or not included in the count. The re-count is final, except that the disputed ballots can still be sent to the Court of Disputed Returns for adjudication. ECSA would have ruled today based on its view of past judgments. The Court of Disputed Returns would be entitled to make a new ruling to either validate or invalidate ballot papers.



The Liberal Party would have to decide whether its case has strong enough grounds to justify. Otherwise the whole process could become expensive and diverting.

15/12/2014 7:56:16 PM - First reliable reports from Twitter say Labor has won by 13 votes. Now waiting for official confirmation and final figures.

14/12/2014 7:06:06 PM - The Liberal Party has requested a re-count and provided sufficient reasons for the Electoral Commissioner to agree to the request. I don't know the grounds but media reports suggest disputed ballots and ballot papers that had not been properly reviewed by scrutineers. The re-count starts on Monday morning.

13/12/2014 8:23:31 PM - Candidates may request a re-count, but unless they have a good reason, I doubt the request will be accepted. All polling place votes were counted last Saturday night and fully re-counted on Sunday. All declaration votes were counted and heavilly scrutineered in the week. All first preference votes were re-counted on Friday. All votes for excluded candidates were re-checked and re-counted in the distribution of preferences on Saturday.



In requesting a re-count, candidates have to give reasons why, and given the votes have already been counted several times, an argument that the result was close is unlikely to be good enough. The scrutineers have examined all ballot papers very closely several times, and they would have to state a reason in relation to disputed ballots to justify a re-count. Full re-counts are unusual in Australia.

13/12/2014 8:14:09 PM - A very big victory for the Labor Party though the margin is a tiny 23 votes. The full distribution of preferences is set out below.



In summary, by the second last exclusion 2,866 votes had been distributed. 713 (24.9%) flowed to Liberal candidate Harris, 834 to Labor's Cook (29.1%) and 1,319 to Independent Woodyatt (46.0%). This left Woodyatt 226 votes short of Cook in the race for second place.



After Woodyatt's exclusion and with only 2 candidates left in the race, 7,657 votes had been distributed and 2,860 flowed to Liberal Harris (37.4%) and 4,797 to Labor's Cook (62.6%).



This left Labor's Nat Cook victorious by 23 votes, delivering Labor a 24th seat and a majority in the House of Assembly.

13/12/2014 8:07:42 PM - Here is the detailed distribution of preferences



Fisher - Distribution of Preferences Harris

(LIB) Cook

(ALP) Woodyatt

(IND) Golding

(IND) De Jong

(IND) Wyra

(GRN) Couch

(SPG) Walker

(IND) 7,416 5,502 4,791 880 810 710 271 195 36.0 26.7 23.3 4.3 3.9 3.5 1.3 0.9 33 41 29 16 30 35 11 .. 16.9 21.0 14.9 8.2 15.4 17.9 5.6 .. 7,449 5,543 4,820 896 840 745 282 .. 36.2 26.9 23.4 4.4 4.1 3.6 1.4 .. 51 32 66 28 34 71 .. .. 18.1 11.3 23.4 9.9 12.1 25.2 .. .. 7,500 5,575 4,886 924 874 816 .. .. 36.5 27.1 23.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 .. .. 68 300 198 183 67 .. .. .. 8.3 36.8 24.3 22.4 8.2 .. .. .. 7,568 5,875 5,084 1,107 941 .. .. .. 36.8 28.6 24.7 5.4 4.6 .. .. .. 234 177 289 241 .. .. .. .. 24.9 18.8 30.7 25.6 .. .. .. .. 7,802 6,052 5,373 1,348 .. .. .. .. 37.9 29.4 26.1 6.6 .. .. .. .. 327 284 737 .. .. .. .. .. 24.3 21.1 54.7 .. .. .. .. .. 8,129 6,336 6,110 .. .. .. .. .. 39.5 30.8 29.7 .. .. .. .. .. 2,147 3,963 .. .. .. .. .. .. 35.1 64.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. 10,276 10,299 .. .. .. .. .. .. 49.9 50.1

13/12/2014 1:25:32 PM - Word has come through from the preference distribution that Labor's Cook finished ahead of Independent Woodyatt which means Cook will go on to win Fisher on Woodyatt's preferences. I will not have the official count until much later this afternoon. (I'll be out for afternoon and cannot publish details till evening.)

12/12/2014 7:41:42 PM - A complete re-check was conducted today creating a few minor changes to totals. Labor now leads by 24 votes.

12/12/2014 11:33:29 AM - Today's update of 30 votes made no difference to the Labor 2-party lead. After preferences both the Labor and Liberal candidates gained 15 votes. Whatever happens, it appears impossible for the Liberal Party to win Fisher. The seat will be won either by Labor's Nat Cook or Independent Dan Woodyatt.



Tomorrow is the full distribution of preferences. Unless there has been an error with the count, Labor should retain its two-party lead.



What will not be known until the distribution of preferences is whether Independent Dan Woodyatt can close the 711 vote gap by which he currently trails Labor's Nat Cook. There are 2864 votes with the other five candidates on the ballot paper. If Woodyatt gains 712 more votes from this group than Cook, he will reach second place and then go on to win easily on Labor preferences.



The current preference count offers us no help on whether this will occur. We will have to wait and see what happens with the preference distribution.



There have been two recent cases of a third placed candidate narrowly pulling ahead and winning. In 2009 Geoff Brock won the Frome by-election by passing Labor to reach second place and winning on Labor preferences. Then two weeks ago, the Greens won the Victorian seat of Prahran by narrowly reaching second place and then winning on Labor preferences. Andrew Wilkie won the Federal seat of Denison from third place in 2010, though the fact he would reach third place was more clear cut.

10/12/2014 11:31:34 AM - Website now updated with new figures putting Labor's Cook ahead by 21 votes. No closer to knowing whether Woodyatt will catch Cook before the final exclusion.

10/12/2014 11:21:59 AM - Waiting for the latest update of 192 votes counted this morning. It is reported to put Labor's Nat Cook back in front by 21 votes.

10/12/2014 10:35:52 AM - The turn around on the pre-poll votes has been remarkable. I've been covering elections for more than two decades, and with the exception of rural electorates, I have never seen a 2% election night lead overturned. The election night vote was below 60%, historically low, but there has still been a bigger than normal difference between the election day vote and votes cast before election day.



The postal vote difference is not remarkable as it often has a stronger conservative component, but the pre-polls have been a surprise to me.



The narrowing has two causes. One was first preference differences, the Liberal vote up, Labor vote down and Woodyatt vote up. In addition though, the flow of preferences to Labor was much weaker in the pre-poll vote.



Was this because of the late attacks on Woodyatt? Was this because of the comments on the Submarine Corporation made by Defence Minister David Johnston? Was there a difference in campaigning outside of the pre-poll voting centres compared to polling booths? The lack of absent votes may have had an impact, but this is impossible to measure as the SA Electoral Commission does not do a break-up of the different types of declaration votes. Probably all factors are at play.



Maybe it is something more systemic. In the past pre-poll votes haven't shown any particular leaning. Maybe this is starting to appear as the number of pre-poll votes have increased, or more probably, with the increase in numbers, even a small difference between polling day and pre-poll votes has an impact.

9/12/2014 3:50:24 PM - The pre-poll first preferences have been added. The Liberal vote rises from 35.5% to 36.1%, Labor's vote falls from 27.4% to 26.7% and Woodyatt's vote rises from 22.8% to 23.3%. Votes for other candidates declines from 14.3% to 13.9%.



The 2-party preferred result now has the Liberals very narrowly leading after preferences, but the closure of the first preference margin between Labor and Woodyatt raises the possibility that Woodyatt could yet reach second place.



We won't know until the official distribution of preferences to be conducted on Saturday.

9/12/2014 12:01:42 PM - Postal votes from Monday added. I'll add the pre-poll votes when done this afternon.



The shoulder surgery was successful but I now have six weeks with my dominant right hand in a sling. I'm constricted to slow left handed typing for a while.

7/12/2014 8:24:37 PM - As I mentioned on Saturday, shoulder surgery on Monday means I will not be able to update this site until later this week. If you are after the postal vote updates on Monday, or pre-poll updates on Tuesday, try the SA Electoral Commission's result page for Fisher.

7/12/2014 7:18:00 PM - Check count completed. Postal votes will be counted on Tuesday and pre-poll votes on Tuesday.

7/12/2014 1:25:45 PM - It is not very often that governments gain seats at by-elections. The examples I can think of all took place during first terms of government, not the fourth term which is the current position of the Weatherill government in South Australia.



The first term examples I can think of are Labor under Neville Wran winning the Earlwood by-election in 1978, in his first term, and incidently defeating the political aspirations of the Liberal candidate Alan Jones.



In 1996 the Carr Labor government in NSW won Clarence from the National Party at a by-election in its first term, increasing the government's tenuous one seat majority to three.



The minority Bracks government won two famous by-elections in its first term. In December 1999 they gained Jeff Kennett's former seat of Burwood, and in May 2000 won the rural seat of Benalla, previously held by National Party Leader and Deputy Premier Pat McNamara.



The newly elected Beattie government in Queensland achieved majority in late 1998 by winning the Mulgrave by-election following the resignation of the elected One Nation MP.



The O'Farrell government in NSW also gained a seat from an Independent in 2013, again in the first term of a government, by winning the Northern Tablelands by-election following the resignation of Richard Torbay.



The final example I can think of is the 1994 Helena by-election in Western Australia, gained by the Court government in its first term in office. The Labor candidate at that by-election was Joe Bullock, whose recent election to the Senate was made easier by factional deals that delivered him the lead position on the Labor Senate ticket.



My records on by-election swings for fourth term governments are limited to NSW, but the average swing against Labor in the fourth term of the Wran/Unsworth government 1984-88 was 7.9%, and the average swing against Labor in the fourth term of Iemma/Rees/Keneally Labor government 2007-11 was 21.0%.



In complete contrast, the swing in Fisher is around 9% towards the Labor government.

7/12/2014 1:07:35 PM - The tabulation error on the Aberfoyle Park booth has now been corrected by the check count and Labor now has 52.1% after preferences, removing most doubt that Labor is set to win the by-election.

21:54 - Final comment for the night. I will update the website sometime on Sunday afternoon. I have to deposit a suitcase full of clothes at the place where I will be going to recuperate for a fortnight after my shoulder operation on Monday. The chances of me coming around from general anaesthetic and updating the site on Monday are not great, and on Tuesday i'll be very sore and limited to left handed typing. If you want updates, click on this link which will take you to SA Electoral Commission's result page for Fisher.



For members of the fourth estate, don't even try to ring me on Monday morning.

21:20 - One thing to be resolved tomorrow with the check count is whether Labor is even further ahead because of a discrepancy in the Aberfoyle park booth. The table below shows the percentage of minor party and independent preferences flowing to the Liberal Party in each booth

51.5% Aberfoyle Park

33.0% Aberfoyle Park Central

35.4% Aberfoyle Park North

34.2% Aberfoyle Park South

30.0% Cherry Gardens

45.0% Clarendon

34.5% Happy Valley

33.7% Happy Valley West

32.9% Reynella East



This may not be an error at all and it may be there was a different flow of preferences at that booth. But if the flow in Aberfoyle Park was more like in other booths, then the check count tomorrow may reveal that Labor is further ahead than reported tonight.



It has to be stated, this is exactly why Electoral Commissions engage in check counts on a Sunday rather than emabrk on new counting. On election night all votes are counted by day-hire staff. In the check count more experienced staff are used. The check count is always more reliable than the election night count and is done to ensure the polling day votes are finalised before moving on to the declaration votes.



But if the above table does represent an under estimate of the Labor vote, then Labor's chances of winning are even greater than on the figures reported tonight.

21:00 - Even if the Liberal Party do end up winning Fisher, there will be huge recriminations from this result. This is an 8% swing towards a 12 year-old state government in a seat Labor hasn't won since the 1985 state election. This is a result that can't be blamed in electoral boundaries. Someone is going to have to take responsibility for this result. Will it be the state Liberals? Will the finger be pointed at the federal Liberals? This is a very bad result for the Liberal Party in South Australia.

20:56 - In March the Liberal 2PP in Fisher at the end of election night was 56.9%. The Liberal 2PP on pre-polls, postals and absents was 58.4%, which meant the overall total was 57.2%. If that trend is repeated at the Fisher by-election, Labor's lead of 50.9% would narrow to at worst to 50.5%. My estimate is that the Liberal Party needs more than 52% of the pre-polls and postals after preferences to win, a good 3% higher than they polled on polling day, and a gap twice as wide from polling dauy votes as was seen in March. In a much larger pool of pre-polls, it seems unlikely that there will be such a huge difference. If Labor has run a half-decent pre-poll and postal campiagn, then they will win Fisher.

20:50 - So at the end of the night the Labor Party leads with 50.9% after preferences. There are about 125 preference votes to be included using the strange South Australian ticket voting system, but these won't change the margin.

20:35 - The huge increase in pre-poll votes makes the end of election night comparison somewhat difficult to rely on as a predictor. It looks like the pre-poll campaigns of the Labor and Liberal candidates will be crucial.

20:25 - I've just re-arranged my historic polling place data so that the history from the unused Woodcroft booth has been added to the nearby Reynella East booth. That means my final figures tonight will compare the total of booths tonight with the total booths at the state election in March. That will be more meaningful than having Woodcroft as a stray booth in my tables.

20:18 - That's all first preference votes counted and you would have to bank on Labor finishing second at this stage. With 8 of 9 2-party booth results reporting, Labor leads both on the raw preference count and on the projected percentage. But it may well be there is a very different pattern with postals and pre-polls given the huge surge in numbers. This result is far from over as the end of the night nears and Labor has a very real chance of victory.

20:10 - This looks like the Frome by-election. The Liberal Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith prematurely claimed victory and Independent Geoff Brock won. Hamilton-Smith is now an Independent and serves in the Cabinet of Jay Weatherill.

20:03 - As I was projecting from very early on by analysing the booths, Labor will now finish in second place and Fisher will become a 2-party race between Labor and Liberal. At this stage there is a 7% swing to Labor after preferences.

19:57 - Well, this is one of the more interesting by-election results I've worked on. I don't think we'll know the winner tonight. Shame I'll be in hopsital for the counting on Monday and Tuesday.

19:53 - This by-election is a very good case of why you sometimes need to look at the first preference vote before getting caught up on the likely result after preferences.

19:51 - This is quite a close race. At this stage Woodyatt is projected to finish third, and if he does, Labor has a realistic chance of victory. There is a very strong chance we will not know the winner tonight.

19:44 - The Reynella East booth is still to come and that was Bob Such's worst booth, which is why I still have my doubts about whether Woodyatt will finish in second place.

19:25 - At this stage Woodyatt leads Labor's Cook, but using the swings recorded in the booths reporting, he is projected to finish behind Cook. However, the gap between the two of them may be small enough for the preferences of the other five candidates to determine who finishes second. Shades of the Frome by-election!

19:09 - Not sure the preference count is very meaningful. At this stage we are not sure in what order the top three polling candidates will finish. As I mentioned, the Electoral Commission is doing a Liberal v Labor throw, which will be meaningless if Woodyatt finishes second or first on first preferences.

19:02 - I've published the preference count between Labor and Liberal, though at this stage I'm not sure it will be the relevant count. We will see through the night.

18:55 - Just noting that the Labor vote is up, which given it is in the low teens, meant Labor was in single digits in these two booths in March.

18:51 - Those first two booths show Woodyatt only getting half of Bob Such's vote, but there are a lot of bigger booths to come, and from areas that have been represented by Such for longer than Cherry Gardens and Clarendon. Woodyatt would finish third on these first booths but there is much more counting to come.

18:48 - So that's the small Cherry Gardens and Clarendon booths and the Liberal vote is up in both but projecting well short of 50% at this stage.

18:35 - South Australia is the only state that puts sample how-to-vote material on voting screens. You can follown this link to see the registered material. In summary, the Greens did not register a ticket, Independents Walker, De Jonge, Woodyatt and Golding recommended a '1' and left it to voters to make up their own minds on the rest of the candidates. The Stop Population Growth candidate Bob Couch recommended a split ticket between Labor and Liberal though he listed Woodyatt before both. Labor gave effective preferences to Woodyatt and the Liberal Party registered a straight down the ballot paper preference list that put Labor ahead of Woodyatt, though Liberal preferences are highly unlikely to be counted out.

18:22 - Just to clarify, I am also comparing the vote for Independent Dan Woodyatt to the late Independent MP Bob Such. The swing to or from Woodyatt will be compared to the vote for Such in March.

18:19 - We should get some figures before 7pm. There were three booths that took fewer than 600 votes in March, at Aberfoyle Park Central, Cherry Gardens and Clarendon. You would think at least one of them will have their counting over early.

18:07 - The Commission will be conducting an indicative preference count tonight between the Liberal candidate Heidi Harris and Labor candidate Nat Cook.



It may be that Cook slips to third place, and as in last week's Advertiser poll, the contest will be between Harris and Independent Dan Woodyatt. If that is the case, there is a strong chance we will not know the result tonight.



If the result does look like a Harris/Woodyatt finish, the Commission will not release tonight's preference count, but instead will re-do the indicative preference count on Sunday afternoon as part of the usual re-check of the election night booth results.

17:45 - Tonight's count is unlikely to get much above 60% of the total enrolled voters. Around 4650 people have cast pre-poll votes, and 1639 postal votes have been issued, of which 1219 have already been received back and accepted into preliminary scrutiny.



So that means around 25% of voters have voted before today. With the total percentage turnout likely to be in the low 80s, that means tonight's count will struggle to reach 60%.



Before people start demanding that the Electoral Commission should count these early votes, the reason they don't is the South Australian Electoral Act does not permit it. The Electoral Commission conducts elections according to the law set out by parliament, and the current legislation does not permit the early and postal votes to be counted tonight. It is up to the politicians to make this decision, not the Electoral Commission.



Postal votes will be counted and added to the totals on Monday, Pre-poll votes on Tuesday.

17:43 - A note on the polling places being used tonight. Results will be reported from nine polling places compared to ten at the state election in March. The difference is that the Woodcraft Primary School booth will not be used. It was an external joint booth at the state election, but as it is outside the physical boundaries of Fisher, cannot be used at the by-election.

17:01 - I'll be back after 6pm Adelaide time with more information on what to expect tonight, and later on I'll be publishing results.



In the mean time, click on the background tab for details of the history of Fisher and well as profiles of the eight candidates.

16:30 - Welcome to tonight's coverage of the Fisher by-election.