Central England Temperature Pause Now 17 Years Long

By Paul Homewood

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html

Despite the warm end to the year, the annual CET ended up pretty close to the long term average.

As I have pointed out before, the Met Office only like to show the CET since 1772. For some reason, they don’t like people to see the full picture, which just happens to include the much bigger and faster rise in temperatures in the early 18thC!

If we focus in on the period since 1980, we can see more clearly the step change in the late 1980’s, but, just as significantly, the flatlining since. Indeed, the 10-Year average has actually been declining since 2007.

Perhaps a better way to look at the “pause” is to consider the trend over the last twenty years. The red line shows the mean.

Last year was an insignificant 0.1C above the 20-year mean, whilst five of the years in the last eight have been below average.

Which brings us back back to that step change in the 1980’s. Whilst correlation does not prove causation, one cannot avoid the connection between that step change in temperature and the sharp rise in the AMO at the same time.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=&year2=2015&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

I won’t even mention the peak in the AMO in the 1930’s and 40’s! But just consider what might happen to UK temperatures when the AMO goes cold, which on historical patterns will occur sometime in the next decade.

Source

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html