In England, the councils up for election are predominantly in areas where Labour doesn’t currently hold the councils, having been last fought in 2013, midway through the 2010-15 Parliament and not long after our high point in 2012. At the time, UKIP were on an estimated 23 per cent of the vote, taking many votes and seats from the Conservatives.

The early signs are that UKIP’s vote has completely collapsed, leaving the door open to Conservative gains.

Wales

It’s been a mixed picture in Wales. It’s clear from what we know so far that the predicted Tory advance has failed to materialise. There are some disappointing results but there are good ones too. Labour has:

Increased our majority and retained control of Swansea

Retained control of Cardiff despite a three-way attack from Tories, Lib Dems and Plaid

Retained Newport, a heavily-briefed “target authority” for the Tories

Retained Neath Port Talbot and Torfaen

Bad result in Merthyr Tydfil & Blaenau Gwent ?

Both were 2012 gains; both were Independent controlled prior to that. There is a long history of Independent support on both councils.

We’d expect Wales to be challenging. The seats were last fought in 2012 when the polls were very different and when the results were – by any measure – a high watermark. They represented our best local election results in 16 years, taking control of 10 out of 21 councils. We took control of Cardiff, Newport and Swansea, and strengthened our position as the biggest party in Wrexham and Flintshire. It’s important to view today’s results through this prism. It’s also worth remembering that many of the councils now seen as “Labour” weren’t Labour as recently as 2008 – for example, Bridgend, Torfaen, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Swansea.