The list of 20-year-old third basemen is impressive, includes Adrian Beltre. (Photo: Keith Allison

Rafael Devers will be called up to the majors on Tuesday. Well, I suppose he may technically be called up today, but he’s not expected to start Monday’s game, so it might not be until Tuesday. Whatever day he’s officially promoted, he’ll become the first 20-year-old position player promoted to the majors this season. While Travis Sawchik has already discussed Devers in the context of the Red Sox’ situation, I’d like to look at him in the context of 20-year-old call-ups.

I went back to 1985 in pulling info for 20-year-old call-ups, and there are some interesting things to be shared. Let’s start at the beginning: Devers will become just the 78th player since 1985 to be called up to the majors for his debut as either an 18-, 19- or 20-year-old. Here’s a breakdown of all the relevant players:

MLB Debuts, 18- to 20-Year-Olds, 1985-2017, By Year Year 18 YO 19 YO 20 YO Total Year 18 YO 19 YO 20 YO Total 1985 3 3 2002 4 4 1986 3 3 2003 3 3 1987 2 2 2004 1 4 5 1988 1 1 2 2005 2 2 1989 2 3 5 2006 2 2 1990 1 1 2007 1 1 2 1991 1 1 2 2008 2 2 1992 3 3 2009 2 2 1993 4 4 2010 5 5 1994 1 1 2011 1 1 1995 1 1 2 2012 3 3 1996 2 1 3 2013 2 2 1997 0 2014 3 3 1998 1 3 4 2015 1 1 1999 2 2 2016 1 1 2000 2 2 2017 1 1 2001 1 1 Totals 1 16 61 78

(Note: You get one attempt to guess who the 18-year-old was. If you get it wrong, you must serve a self-imposed banishment from FanGraphs for a period of 10-10.5 hours.)

As you can see, the last three years have represented a bit of a dry spell for young call-ups. From 1985 to 1994, there were 26 call-ups. There were also 26 from 1995 to 2004 and 24 more from 2005 to -14. This season is far from over, obviously, but if this holds, it will become the lowest three-year total since ’85. The current lowest periods are 2014-2016 and 1999-2001, at five. Teams are either more cautious these days or front offices are experiencing less pressure to produce winners — which may be an inevitable result of teams purposefully tanking.

Or it could just be random variance. We’re talking about a handful of players, at most, per year. And of course, the end of this season, when these call-ups typically happen, could bear more fruit, so to speak. Now it’s time for a breakdown by month.

MLB Debuts, 18- to 20-Year-Olds,

1985-2017, By Month Month # % April 9 11.5% May 6 7.7% June 10 12.8% July 10 12.8% Aug. 11 14.1% Sept. 32 41.0%

As you can see, 41% of such call-ups occur in September (as a result of roster expansion, surely) and are pretty evenly distributed across the other months. Some happen because of injury, some happen because the prospect forces his way, and some happen because the team has a need. How you want to classify Devers’ call-up is up to you, but it’s likely some combination of the latter two reasons.

Call-ups for team need are tricky, because if the prospect is rushed and doesn’t respond well to that, then the corresponding organization may do more harm than good. Which timeframe is more important for the team? It’s hard to know that sometimes, because as always, the future is unknown. What we can do, though, is look to see just where Devers fits in in the context of these past call-ups. I looked at how many games each player played at both Double-A and Triple-A before their call-ups. These figures might not be 100% exact; if not, though, they’re damn close.

As you can see, Devers is certainly on the low side, particularly when it comes to Triple-A, but he’s not all that close to the bottom. By Double-A games, he’s tied for 41st with Gary Sheffield, just two games behind his soon-to-be-teammate, Xander Bogaerts. The difference is that Bogaerts had 60 games at Triple-A, whereas Devers only had nine.

One thing I don’t think we can do is project Devers’ future from the number of games he played at Triple-A. The three players who had the most Double-A/Triple-A time — Rivas, Martinez and Newfield — didn’t exactly light the world on fire. We shouldn’t look at Rivas’ 67 extra games in the high minors as some magic formula for success, just as we shouldn’t look to the other end of the scale and see John Olerud or Rickie Weeks Jr. skipping the high minors as some magic formula.

Before we go, I want to look at two more things. First, how well did these players do once they were called up? Specifically, how well did they do that first year? (Note: players are ordered by wRC+, but the table is sortable.)

MLB Debuts, 18- to 20-Year Olds, 1985-2017, MLB First-Year Stats Season Name AA-AAA Gms MLB PA MLB wRC+ MLB WAR 2014 Jorge Polanco 0 8 254 0.3 1987 Gregg Jefferies 139 6 222 0.1 1986 Jay Bell 138 16 206 0.1 2005 Ryan Zimmerman 63 62 163 0.7 2013 Jose Ramirez 113 14 159 0.2 1986 Jerry Browne 128 25 158 0.0 2015 Carlos Correa 53 432 135 3.4 2010 Jason Heyward 50 623 134 4.7 2004 Dioner Navarro 168 7 133 0.0 1985 Jose Canseco 118 100 129 0.6 1985 Jose Gonzalez 128 12 125 0.2 2012 Bryce Harper 58 597 121 4.6 2010 Giancarlo Stanton 132 396 118 2.7 1992 Wil Cordero 281 137 118 0.5 1992 Willie Greene 96 104 117 0.1 1989 John Olerud 0 8 113 0.0 2002 Omar Infante 252 75 112 0.6 2006 Delmon Young 222 131 110 1.0 2008 Travis Snider 116 80 110 0.4 1988 Roberto Alomar 139 611 107 3.9 2004 Andres Blanco 0 67 107 0.6 1989 Ken Griffey Jr. 17 506 106 2.5 1996 Edgar Renteria 170 471 106 3.5 2003 Miguel Cabrera 69 346 106 0.8 2014 Dilson Herrera 61 66 105 0.2 1998 Eric Chavez 135 48 104 0.2 1986 Ruben Sierra 183 411 103 1.6 2003 Jose Reyes 107 292 102 2.2 2010 Starlin Castro 57 506 99 1.8 2012 Manny Machado 109 202 97 1.3 2008 Conor Gillaspie 0 7 97 0.0 1988 Gary Sheffield 134 89 95 0.0 2014 Rougned Odor 62 417 91 0.5 2004 Melvin Upton Jr. 127 177 91 0.2 2011 Mike Trout 91 135 87 0.7 1989 Sammy Sosa 89 203 86 -0.4 2013 Xander Bogaerts 139 50 85 0.1 1991 Jim Thome 125 104 82 -0.1 2009 Elvis Andrus 118 541 81 3.2 2000 Luis Rivas 255 64 80 -0.1 1996 Andruw Jones 50 113 79 0.0 1998 Adrian Beltre 64 214 75 0.2 2002 Carl Crawford 217 278 74 0.7 1991 Ivan Rodriguez 50 288 73 0.7 1996 Luis Castillo 109 180 72 1.0 1998 Aramis Ramirez 47 275 70 -1.0 2001 Wilson Betemit 47 5 67 0.0 2010 Ruben Tejada 134 255 64 -0.3 2004 Jose Lopez 206 218 63 0.2 1999 Vernon Wells 59 92 61 -0.1 2012 Jurickson Profar 126 17 60 -0.1 1995 Roger Cedeno 331 46 57 -0.5 1992 Melvin Nieves 100 21 57 0.0 2007 Justin Upton 71 152 53 -0.6 1993 Marc Newfield 142 70 51 -0.4 2002 Wily Mo Pena 105 18 51 0.0 2003 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0 14 48 -0.1 2000 Corey Patterson 118 47 42 -0.4 1993 Cliff Floyd 133 31 42 -0.3 2006 Adam Jones 159 76 39 -0.2 2009 Fernando Martinez 188 100 38 -0.4 1989 Juan Gonzalez 133 68 36 -0.1 2016 Raul Mondesi 124 149 32 -0.5 2002 Chris Snelling 23 29 26 -0.4 2010 Freddie Freeman 165 24 25 -0.2 1985 Manuel Lee 0 43 20 -0.3 2007 Cameron Maybin 6 53 19 -0.4 1994 Alex Rodriguez 49 59 15 -0.3 1999 Gookie Dawkins 32 8 9 -0.2 1995 Karim Garcia 124 20 5 -0.3 2005 Melky Cabrera 132 19 5 -0.5 1993 Benji Gil 0 66 -11 -0.4 1989 Dean Palmer 133 20 -26 -0.4 1990 Andujar Cedeno 132 8 -100 -0.2 1993 Shawn Green 99 6 -100 -0.1 1998 Dee Brown 0 3 -100 -0.2 2004 Rene Rivera 4 3 -100 -0.1 2017 Rafael Devers 86

You know what? There’s a lot going on here. Let’s narrow this down to players who notched at least 100 plate appearances, because if he stays up for the rest of the season, Devers should clear that bar. (Once again, players ordered by wRC+, table is sortable.)

MLB Debuts, 18-20 Year Olds, 1985-2017, MLB First-Year Stats Season Name AA-AAA Gms PA wRC+ WAR 2015 Carlos Correa 53 432 135 3.4 2010 Jason Heyward 50 623 134 4.7 1985 Jose Canseco 118 100 129 0.6 2012 Bryce Harper 58 597 121 4.6 2010 Giancarlo Stanton 132 396 118 2.7 1992 Wil Cordero 281 137 118 0.5 1992 Willie Greene 96 104 117 0.1 2006 Delmon Young 222 131 110 1.0 1988 Roberto Alomar 139 611 107 3.9 1989 Ken Griffey Jr. 17 506 106 2.5 1996 Edgar Renteria 170 471 106 3.5 2003 Miguel Cabrera 69 346 106 0.8 1986 Ruben Sierra 183 411 103 1.6 2003 Jose Reyes 107 292 102 2.2 2010 Starlin Castro 57 506 99 1.8 2012 Manny Machado 109 202 97 1.3 2014 Rougned Odor 62 417 91 0.5 2004 Melvin Upton Jr. 127 177 91 0.2 2011 Mike Trout 91 135 87 0.7 1989 Sammy Sosa 89 203 86 -0.4 1991 Jim Thome 125 104 82 -0.1 2009 Elvis Andrus 118 541 81 3.2 1996 Andruw Jones 50 113 79 0.0 1998 Adrian Beltre 64 214 75 0.2 2002 Carl Crawford 217 278 74 0.7 1991 Ivan Rodriguez 50 288 73 0.7 1996 Luis Castillo 109 180 72 1.0 1998 Aramis Ramirez 47 275 70 -1.0 2010 Ruben Tejada 134 255 64 -0.3 2004 Jose Lopez 206 218 63 0.2 2007 Justin Upton 71 152 53 -0.6 2009 Fernando Martinez 188 100 38 -0.4 2016 Raul Mondesi 124 149 32 -0.5 Minimum 100 MLB PA

Again, not much to go on here. The top 10 has one guy who had less than 20 games in the high minors (Griffey) and two who had more than 200 (Cordero and Young). Similarly, the bottom 10 has two guys at 50 games or fewer in the high minors (Ramirez and Rodriguez) and two at more than 200 (Crawford and Lopez).

One way to more directly compare Devers to his 20-year-old predecessors is to look exclusively at others who’ve played the same position. How many other third basemen have been called up this early? What’s the positional breakdown?

MLB Debuts, 18- to 20-Year-Olds, 1985-2017, By Position Position # Min Max Avg. Median SS 23 0 281 110.3 124.0 CF 13 6 217 100.2 91.0 RF 11 50 222 116.3 118.0 2B 10 0 255 110.5 111.0 3B 10 0 135 81.8 77.5 1B 4 0 165 110.0 137.5 LF 4 0 331 134.0 102.5 C 3 4 168 74.0 50.0 Total 78 0 331 104.4 111.0

So, Devers will be the 10th third baseman called up. He’s on the top side of the average and median for his position, though the position is on the low end for both. If you take Devers out of the third-base sample, the average doesn’t drop, but the median drops to 69 games, which is a nice number. Let’s take a quick look at those third basemen.

MLB Debuts, 18- to 20-Year-Olds, 1985-2017, Third Basemen Season Name Team Age G PA wOBA wRC+ WAR AA Gms AAA Gms Total MLB Debut 1989 Dean Palmer TEX 20 16 20 0.131 -26 -0.4 133 0 133 Sept. 1 1991 Jim Thome CLE 20 27 104 0.296 82 -0.1 84 41 125 Sept. 4 1992 Willie Greene CIN 20 29 104 0.345 117 0.1 96 0 96 Sept. 1 1998 Eric Chavez OAK 20 16 48 0.343 104 0.2 88 47 135 Sept. 8 1998 Adrian Beltre LAD 19 77 214 0.287 75 0.2 64 0 64 Jun. 24 1998 Aramis Ramirez PIT 20 72 275 0.290 70 -1.0 0 47 47 May 26 2003 Miguel Cabrera FLO 20 87 346 0.338 106 0.8 69 0 69 Jun. 20 2005 R. Zimmerman WAS 20 20 62 0.423 163 0.7 63 0 63 Sept. 1 2008 Conor Gillaspie SF 20 8 7 0.330 97 0.0 0 0 0 Sept. 9 2017 Rafael Devers BOS 20 77 9 86 Jul. 25**

Well, isn’t that some nice company to be in? While two of the players included here didn’t stay at third base for very long, three of those nine players are going to end up in the Hall of Fame. Of the rest, the only ones who didn’t have great careers were Greene and Gillaspie, and they at least hung around for awhile — 655 games / 2,183 PA / 4.4 WAR for Greene and 506 games / 1,538 PA / 1.8 WAR for Gillaspie. There have been far worse careers.

What kind of career will Rafael Devers have? We can’t really say definitively based on these comps here. He didn’t play in the high minors for as long as others did, but he isn’t the greenest either. Was he rushed? Only time will tell. What we can say for sure is that, since 1985, 3,458 non-pitchers have garnered plate appearances in the majors. Only 77 of them have been 18-, 19- or 20-year-olds in their debut season. That Devers will be the 78th makes him pretty special, no matter what kind of career he ends up having.