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This article was published 20/4/2018 (886 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Looming mine closures in Thompson and Flin Flon may cost the region so many residents northern Manitoba could lose one of its five provincial ridings by the 2028 election, says a new report from Brandon University.

"Over the last three years, a series of events or announcements have cast a long shadow of economic instability over many communities in Manitoba’s north: pending mine closures in Thompson and Flin Flon, or changing ownership of the forestry mill in The Pas," the study done by BU's Rural Development Institute said.

"The impacts of these events have not been limited to single communities, but rather, have affected much of the structures and networks that bind many northern communities together. The loss of a primary employer in a single-industry community affects supporting tertiary employers, which in turn impacts other community services.

"In some cases, it seems the closure of one industry precipitates a cascading effect, and where there are fewer jobs, residents leave for better employment opportunities elsewhere."

The study was commissioned by the electoral boundaries commission, though its authors caution it is more an analysis of the demographics and economies of rural and remote Manitoba than a series of recommendations about specific boundary changes.

Hudbay Minerals had announced it will cease its mining operations in Flin Flon by 2019 or 2020, while Vale Canada Ltd. closed its Birchtree mine in Thompson last year, and is shutting down its smelter and refinery in the Manitoba city later this year.

"Significant population losses over the north may lead the commission to face the very difficult question of proposing to reduce the number of northern electoral divisions to four," the report said.

What could potentially reverse the area's decline is significant growth, including economic growth among First Nations, BU said.

Canada is 29.4 per cent rural population, while Manitoba is 38 per cent, largely due to Indigenous population growth, the study states.

University researchers urged the electoral boundaries commission to consider what areas have in common when redrawing the boundaries of any provincial ridings.

The report noted there are three categories of rural areas, including large exurban (low-density) developments immediately adjacent to urban centres.

A second category has the extraction of natural resources in common, including grain and cattle.

"This set faces the daunting task of weathering the inevitable boom-and-bust cycles in national and international markets, which directly impact the workers, their families and many others employed in these industries and other tertiary sectors," the study says.

The third rural type includes communities and regions struggling with limited capacity and resources, higher unemployment and often declining populations, the report said.

"These other factors are as pertinent for understanding how the demographic, economic, and geographic conditions of the province’s regions are not static but dynamic enough to push, pull, constrain and mobilize neighbouring communities and even those more distant," BU researchers said in the report.

"Consider the unique historic and cultural heritages that continue to shape Virden, Norway House, and Steinbach. Each has come to serve as an important regional centre; however, their demographics, whether in terms of age, culture, education level, or language, are significantly different."

The provincial Conservative government did not respond to the report, but Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont said Manitobans who live in rural and northern areas can struggle to be heard in Winnipeg, so it's important to ensure MLAs have manageable constituencies.

"There is an idea that small towns shrinking is inevitable, but it has been driven by bad policy and a lack of any plan for growing the economy. Manitoba has had a policy that encourages bigger farms, which means fewer farm families, and there hasn’t been investment in infrastructure or economic development. The issue of people leaving rural and northern areas has been treated as inevitable, when it is not," Lamont said.

NDP leader Wab Kinew called for an increase in the number of seats in northern Manitoba.

"Cuts from Brian Pallister to programs like the Communities Economic Development Fund, which works to develop small businesses in northern Manitoba, and a complete lack of action to restore the rail line to Churchill will make things harder in the north. What this report highlights is we need real investments in the north to build a vibrant economy," Kinew said.

"We need more elected MLAs from the north holding this government to account for their cuts and inaction, not less."

nick.martin@freepress.mb.ca