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WASHINGTON — Political conventions are echo chambers designed to generate feelings of invincibility, sending forth the party faithful with a spring in their steps and hope in their hearts. Who would want to be a wet blanket at such movable feasts?

Steve Munisteri would. Although he calls himself “the eternal optimist,” he respects reality, which nowadays is not conducive to conservatives’ cheerfulness. He served as chairman of the Texas Republican Party from 2010 to 2015 because he discerned “a seismic shift in demographics” that meant his state could “turn Democratic sooner than most people thought.”

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The fact that Republicans have won every Texas statewide office since 1994 — the longest such streak in the United States — gives them, he says, “a false sense of security.” In 2000, Republican candidates at the top of the ticket — in statewide races — averaged about 60 per cent of the vote. By 2008, they averaged less than 53 per cent. And Republican down-ballot winners averaged slightly over 51 per cent.