Stephanie Stradley’s Q&A on the Texans and the 2018 NFL draft

Houston Texans helmets sit behind the bench during the second half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, Dec. 17, 2017, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars won 45-7. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack) less Houston Texans helmets sit behind the bench during the second half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, Dec. 17, 2017, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars won 45-7. (AP Photo/Phelan M. ... more Photo: Phelan M. Ebenhack, Associated Press Photo: Phelan M. Ebenhack, Associated Press Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close Stephanie Stradley’s Q&A on the Texans and the 2018 NFL draft 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

For today’s Q&A, Stephanie Stradley asks people of varied backgrounds and perspectives what their opinions are on the Texans and the 2018 NFL draft. Sometimes it can be easy to be locked into one particular view, and it is nice to get views from people who may either confirm or challenge your way of seeing things.

Participants:

Benjamin Allbright – Ben (@AllbrightNFL) is a sports talk co-host on AM1340 and 104.7 in Denver. He reports, he opines, he is an information broker. Like with most topics, there are the things that are officially reported, and then there are truths, falsehoods and everything in between that are whispered.

Jim Cobern – Jim (@Jimetrics) is a sports blogger/YouTube Channel host who creates and reports on NFL analytics relating to the draft. You can find his channel under the name Common Man Football.

Brett Kollmann – Brett (@BrettKollmann) is the writer, producer and editor of the YouTube show The Film Room. He focuses on players, schemes and interesting personnel matchups and teaches fans more about the game. He's also a contributor to Battle Red Blog.

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Charles McDonald - Charles (@FourVerts) is a film room writer for Football Outsiders and co-host of Setting The Edge.

Sam Monson – Sam (@PFF_Sam) is a senior analyst at Pro Football Focus (PFF). PFF watches and grades every snap of every player in the FBS and NFL over a season and has a unique perspective on production, particularly when it comes to college prospects. Their unique viewpoint comes from basing their opinions on a complete data set on all of the players.

Matt Waldman - Matt (@MattWaldman) is the author of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP), the most comprehensive analysis of offensive skill prospects available since 2006. The RSP draws from best practices for performance evaluation and delivers its analysis with a pre-draft and post-draft publication. Matt also runs the RSP Film Room, a YouTube channel featuring in-depth video breakdowns of rookie prospects, including guest-appearances by players, coaches and media.

Lance Zierlein – Lance (@LanceZierlein) is a longtime Houston sports talk radio host, the only person I recall who had J.J. Watt correct in his last 2011 mock draft, and is an NFL Draft Analyst for NFL.com and the NFL Network. He is responsible for 500 draft profiles per year on NFL.com and has written over 2000 over the last four years.

Stephanie Stradley – (@StephStradley) That is me, and these are my questions. I've been writing about the Houston Texans and the NFL among other things since 2006. I have very few informed opinions about the incoming draft class but I do have thoughts about the Texans needs, trends and building for now and the future. I will be commenting some on other peoples' comments.

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Q&A:

Q: The Texans have no picks in the first two rounds. Strategically, do you look to move up in this draft for this team? Why or why not do you tend to feel that way? And if so, who would be some targets worth doing that for?

Waldman: I see the rationale for packaging picks and acquiring a first or second-round pick. Despite signing Zach Fulton, Houston needs more help along the offensive line. A trade makes the most sense if Houston identifies 2-3 tackles with early-round grades that are strong matches for the organization. This gives the Texans 1-2 contingencies in case another team snipes its primary target, or Houston can't pull off its first attempt to move up. Trading beforehand could tip off the organization's plan and allow another team to out-maneuver them on draft day, but I don't believe the talent at offensive line warrants this kind of heat - more on that later. If Houston doesn't have strong grades for this many options and can't make a deal for that one tackle it likes, I'd rather see them stand pat. Although running back and wide receiver aren't considered high-priority needs for Houston, the 2018 draft class has depth at these positions, and the Texans could use better depth. Lamar Miller and D'Onta Foreman are talented options, but runners have short careers on average, and Foreman is already rehabbing a serious injury after his first year. The 2018 class has at least 20 backs capable of challenging for a roster spot and developing into productive contributors. Despite not having talents fitting the template of that traditional primary option, this rookie receiver class has depth and versatility. Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Michael Thomas are a trio of slot/perimeter hybrid receivers with recent success, and the Texans could use better route runners in the middle of the field to complement Deshaun Watson. Although I liked Bruce Ellington's potential at South Carolina, there are receivers in this class that offer similar-to-greater potential - especially as big-play slot weapons with better upside as route technicians. Sammie Coates is a fine athlete who has displayed repeated difficulty tracking the football. If the Texans desire, the organization could upgrade the technical acumen and reliability of its receiving corps later in this draft.

Monson: I don't think they should trade up. First, I think the mid-rounds are actually a good place to be in this draft for O-line help, which the Texans need desperately, and second, the draft still remains such a low-success proposition (particularly if you're outside of Round 1) that more rolls of the dice are better than few.

Zierlein: I would consider moving up since you will be able to get into the second round by flipping two of your third-round picks. I think it is worth targeting a CB like Isaiah Oliver or Carlton Davis. I also see an offensive tackle like Jamarco Jones or a safety like Jessie Bates, Justin Reid or maybe Tarvarius Moore.

Cobern: I would not trade up in this draft class due to very few slam dunk prospects from a data perspective. There are a few QBs such as Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold who hit above average All-Pro career production thresholds since the 1958 NFL draft class. But Houston has already selected a QB in Deshaun Watson last year. Sometimes the best strategy is to do nothing at all. Just have confidence that you can spot good prospects who ultimately fall to lower rounds every year.

McDonald: I don't think that the Texans need to move up in this draft. They still have three third-round picks which means they'll have the opportunity to add three potential players that can come in and be starters for the 2018 campaign. They could use starting offensive tackle talent and some depth along the defensive line to protect themselves in case the injury bug strikes again this year.

Allbright: I don't. You've already moved up last year, and now you're pick deficient because of it. Idea should be to let that pay off now, rather than kicking the can down the road. You've (ideally) got the QB and pieces around him. Use the picks you have to address the O-line.

Kollmann: I honestly believe that if the Texans stay healthy this year (as if that has ever happened, right?), they are one of the strongest starting rosters in the league. They have very few glaring holes now that Aaron Colvin and Tyrann Mathieu are in the building, and with just one or two great pickups in this draft they could be poised for a very deep playoff run. If the front office sees a guard and/or offensive tackle that they like fall into the second round, I expect them to package some picks to move up and snag them without hesitation. Isaiah Wynn from Georgia is probably my dream scenario if he somehow gets pushed down the board due to his rather average arm length, and Billy Price from Ohio State is someone to keep an eye on as well. Price is a first-round caliber guard or center, but he may fall a bit on draft day due to a recent pectoral injury. If he somehow makes it to the mid-50s, that's when you need to watch for Houston to make some moves.

Stradley: I’m closer to the position to stay pat and go with more choices versus betting on one. I’m drawn to Matt’s view and think the Texans have too many players who are hard to ink in as reliable starters on offense. If you think that is harsh, who is your list of Texans offensive players you think can provide consistent, above-average production for an entire season? That said, the Texans could use quality offensive line help, and they don’t have a time machine to go back years ago to get one to develop when they needed to do it.

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Q: What do you think of this draft as far as offensive linemen options? Given what the Texans did in free agency, who they currently have on the team, what should they do now in the draft?

Kollmann: As long as Julién Davenport develops quickly at left tackle, the Texans offensive line isn't necessarily the worst in the world, but they do need an injection of depth and competition in this year's draft. I mentioned Wynn and Price because both of them offer positional flexibility and can provide depth at multiple positions, which is really what Houston needs most right now. There are no true franchise offensive tackles in this class, and only one slam dunk franchise guard (Quenton Nelson), so the Texans should really just be focusing on prospects that can be flexible to mix and match positions as the starting five takes shape. Connor Williams, Braden Smith and KJ Malone are all names that fit into that mold that will also be available in the second and third rounds, so keep an eye on them if Wynn and Price are gobbled up early.

McDonald: I think this offensive line class lacks top end offensive tackle talent, but there are a decent amount of players to be had from Round 3 that look like they have the potential to be starters. Brandon Parker (North Carolina A&T), Nick Gates (Nebraska) and Will Richardson (North Carolina State) are mid/late round talents whi could develop into starters down the line.

Monson: I like the mid-rounds of this draft for O-line options. This draft generally is actually not a bad O-line draft given what we've seen over the past few seasons. I think the Texans need to focus on that as their primary area of concern in this draft. They only have so many rounds in their gun, so need to focus on a specific target with those picks. The one boost to what was the league's worst offensive line (253 total pressures in 2017, the league's worst pass rush productivity score by a distance) last season is that Deshaun Watson was able to make it function and look a lot better than it was. Whoever they put out there in 2018, if Watson is healthy and able to repeat that kind of performance, it'll paper over some of the cracks.

Waldman: Although I don't study offensive linemen like I do the offensive skill positions (QB, RB, WR and TE), this class has about a dozen players apiece at tackle and guard with long-term starter potential. Considering the Texans' additions at guard and lack of early picks, a left tackle could be a priority. If Houston makes a move for an early-round pick, left tackle will be the target. However, as much as I understand the rationale, I'm not sold on mortgaging the future for a top pick. The Texans better be sold that the early-round option is an immediate starter with Pro Bowl upside. None of these prospects fit that part. This draft offers potential upgrades at running back, receiver, and tight end depth - and with starter upside 2-3 years from now at a nice price. I'd rather Houston wait and see if a tackle they assigned a second- or third-round grade falls to the third round. If so, take the tackle. If not, upgrade depth elsewhere.

Cobern: This draft is very thin at offensive tackle. Which is a position the Texans must address. They will depend on second-year tackle Julién Davenport to take over at left tackle. However, Davenport’s data has a few yellow flags athletically that could prove troublesome long-term. The majority of high potential tackles will likely be drafted by the time the Texans pick. The Texans should be fine in the interior of their offensive line. Senio Kelemete was a good pickup in free agency as a rotational player. But targeting Scott Quessenberry in Day 2 could be a decent strategy to upgrade the line at center. Scott, who is the brother of Texans’ guard David Quessenberry, has the movements and athletic profile of a potential high quality interior lineman.

Zierlein: I don't think the Texans should be through looking at guard. There is no reason not to add another guard or a guard/tackle like Will Richardson who might be able to play either in the future.

Allbright: This draft is terrible for OTs, but there are quite a few interior linemen, go after interior linemen and athletes with promise. Given the dearth of early picks this should be a "gamble on athleticism" draft.

Stradley: Some votes for guards and looking for mid-round developmental talent. Hard to argue much with that.

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Q: Realistic Rounds 3-undrafted free agent (UDFA) targets. Who are some players you think might be a good fit for the Texans needs and what do you think they would value? Who are the players you think Bill O'Brien really would want and need without reaching?

Cobern: Harrison Phillips, Folorunso Fatukasi and Bilal Nichols are my top mid-round defensive tackle targets. Fatukasi and Nichols have great size profiles and experience in 3-4 fronts playing 5-technique. While Phillips has experience playing mostly 0/1-technique and some 5-technique as well. I’d target those three as options to potentially start opposite J.J. Watt. And they could perform in a similar fashion to former Texans’ DE Jared Crick if Watt keeps having the injury bug. As far as pass rushers in range of where Houston is selecting in case of a Jadaveon Clowney injury. Duke Ejiofor, John Franklin-Meyers, Kyle Fitts, Trevon Young and Kemoko Turay have the size and athleticism profiles to project as spot starters to rotational pieces. Turay has the most upside to become a high-quality rusher amongst that group, but his production at Rutgers was very sporadic. He was a bit like Godzilla for most of his college career. Turay would destroy Tokyo every once and awhile, but would immediately recede back to the depths of Rutgers’ bench, never to be seen or heard from for months or even years. Micah Kiser, Christian Sam and Genard Avery are solid inside linebacker types to add depth, while Andre Chachere, Party Nickerson and Godwin Igwebuike are defensive back options that could pay off as well. In terms of receiving options for Deshaun Watson in the middle to later rounds, Michael Gallup and Tre’Quan Smith have the size, production, hands and athleticism traits to become productive compliments to DeAndre Hopkins. Gallup, in particular, is the most underrated wide receiver in this class from a hands/body control standpoint. There were many moments on film where it wouldn’t surprise me if Gallup was a late 1800s Russian male ballerina in his former life. At TE, there are no options in the mid to late rounds that could pay off in a Jimmy Graham, or even Jordan Cameron like fashion. But Tyler Conklin and Ian Thomas are two later round tight ends with interesting athleticism and film traits that could produce more than what Houston currently has.

Allbright: Frank Ragnow, center out of Arkansas. Maybe Jaylen Samuels (TE NC State)

Kollmann: Hayden Hurst from South Carolina is one of the first names that comes to mind. He's a big, athletic tight end who has a baseball background (which is huge for developing ball skills), and was used as everything from a receiver, to an H-Back, to even a running back on sweeps for the Gamecocks. The Texans can't seem to keep their tight ends healthy the last few years, so that is a position that will likely be addressed in the draft to rebuild their depth. Considering's Hurst's versatility as an offensive weapon, he could fit in well with Bill O'Brien's high octane offense (or at least it was when Watson was healthy). After Hurst, I could also see Houston targeting Boston College cornerback Isaac Yiadom late in the draft. He's a little stiff in the hips, but with his size, length, and speed he has the potential to develop into a starting corner in a press/press-bail system, as well as contributing on special teams as a really good gunner. Even if he never actually does start on defense, just having him improve the punt and kick coverage teams would be well worth the pick on Day 3.

McDonald: There are two players within the Texans draft range that would fit well with their current needs. Mississippi State offensive tackle Martinas Rankin and Pittsburgh offensive tackle Brian O'Neill. Both players are good athletes that need to get a bit better at run blocking. However, the ability to be a good pass protector is more valuable in today's NFL so they should be able to come in and play right away, especially for an offensive line like the Texans. Their athleticism would allow the Texans to add new wrinkles into their running game involving pulling tackles to the second level that can really get linebackers into trouble.

Monson: I love Nevada's Austin Corbitt. He played left tackle at Nevada, but I don't think the NFL knows where to play him at the next level yet (except it almost certainly WON'T be at LT). I love him at Center. At the Senior Bowl he played all over the line, but dominated at center. I think that position flexibility though aids Houston. Take a guy who could fill multiple roles and figure out where he thrives. Houston literally could upgrade every spot on their line if they unearth a stud. Colby Gossett, a guard out of App State, I think is underrated. Allowed just one sack in his college career and has four seasons of impressive run blocking grades. The one X-factor in all of this is whether Orlando Brown's disastrous combine will make him slip into the third-round. He could fall that far given his concerns, but the tape is still legit. That would represent an interesting gamble.

Waldman: The Texans could use a dynamic slot receiver capable of stretching the field as well as winning after the catch. Keke Coutee, Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller and Richie James are all options who can help immediately on special teams, challenge Bruce Ellington and Braxton Miller, and also eventually do work on the perimeter. Coutee and James could also provide a ball-carrier element on jet sweeps that O'Brien used with Watson as the trigger man. Jordan Lasley has his share of drops, but his hand strength to pull the ball away on 50/50 targets and his strength after the catch make him an intriguing option with starter upside as a perimeter option. Deon Cain could give Houston a player in the mold of Davante Adams, whose route acumen matches well with Deshaun Watson's strengths. If the Texans are seeking a blocker who can catch, Durham Smythe, Dalton Schultz and Ryan Izzo offer those skills. Smythe is the most versatile. Schultz is a good blocker with more upside as a receiver than he demonstrated thus far but not a guarantee that he'll tap into it. Izzo has limited range as a receiver but he's a tough guy at the line of scrimmage. H-Back Tyler Conkin could develop into a decent blocker and he's skilled at earning separation against press coverage as a receiver detached from the line of scrimmage. If O'Brien can figure out a way to use Jaylen Samuels better than Gary Kubiak used James Casey, Samuels has that potential as a utility option at H-Back, slot receiver and even running back depth.

Zierlein: CBs: Duke Dawson, Isaac Yiadom, Tremon Smith; S: Siran Neal, Marcus Allen, Trey Walker, Dane Cruikshank (special teams potential); TE: Dalton Schultz, Durham Smythe, Nick Keizer

Stradley: I want more competition at pretty much every position on offense and more in the secondary. I think the Texans are a good destination for UDFAs because I think there’s plenty of spots to compete for, new special teams coach, and a decent history of UDFAs sticking on the team, and if not, being poached by other teams. Oh, and no state income tax and a low cost of living compared to some of NFL cities.

ON TEXAS SPORTS NATION: Texans offseason analysis - Help wanted at running back

Q: What did I not ask about the Texans draft that you would like to answer?

Zierlein: The Texans will now become a traits-based team in terms of their evaluation standards because Brian Gaine comes from Bill Parcells' school of scouting. Bigger, faster, longer and stronger will be what they covet. Unlike years past where there was inconsistency in standards, there will be a more static, consistent approach now. And clearly, players with special teams potential will win the coin flips between two players being considered in Round 3 and beyond.

Cobern: The Texans should consider adding a place-kicker in this draft. Houston had a 29.13/100 field goal percentage score last year based on data since the 1998 NFL season, and it is imperative to improve that percentage if you want to increase your chance of winning close games in the future. Eddy Pineiro, Daniel Carlson and Drew Brown are the three names I’d consider targeting as late Day 3 to UDFA types. Drafting a place-kicker is usually frowned upon, but it is a legit need that must be addressed to win more games.

Kollmann: Was the trade for Deshaun Watson worth it considering all of the lost draft capital in a seemingly-loaded draft class?

Ab.

So.

Freakin.

Lutely.

While it would be nice to have a realistic chance at Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson, or of course any of the quarterbacks in this year's class, Watson's performance as a rookie was so spectacular that it's hard to imagine any of the 2018 rookies matching it. Keep in mind that before Watson's injury, he was on pace to shatter basically every rookie passing record in the books, and that was without even getting starter's reps in training camp or the preseason. Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen may all go on to have fantastic careers, but if I am comparing their potential to Watson's production, I'll take Watson every single time.

Waldman: Most teams in the NFL are behind the curve with quarterback development. Although Deshaun Watson had a promising start to his career, we know that the NFL has a bad reputation for its development of talent at the position. They don't keep enough youth on the depth chart at the position or have a sound program in place to develop passers. The Texans don't need to make quarterback its top priority but there are prospects at the position capable of developing into decent backups with future trade value. Kyle Lauletta, Mike White and Luke Falk are considered dark-horse picks in the first two rounds. However, if one of this trio falls to the third or fourth round, developing a second quarterback is a worthwhile idea. Kurt Benkert, Quinton Flowers and Kenny Hill are intriguing late-round/UDFA talents who could deliver some continuity for the O'Brien scheme if Watson got hurt again.

Monson: Who's the guy that crushes the PFF grades that nobody else is talking about the Texans should be looking at? Boston Scott - RB out of La Tech. Guy is just 5-foot-6 and around 200 pounds, but he led the nation last year in average yards per carry AFTER contact, and could be a Darren Sproles type-of-matchup weapon at the next level. His grade was third in the draft class in 2017 behind Ronald Jones II and Saquon Barkley. That's not bad company to be keeping.

For a more in depth conversation about where the Texans are at in the offseason post-free agency, please watch PFF’s YouTube on this subject.

McCLAIN COLUMN: Brian Gaine, Bill O'Brien share unity in Texans' mindset

Stradley: Here’s a variety of Texans observations to act as a conclusion to this:

First, please thank all of these people for taking time during a very busy time of year for them. Check out their content because that is the way they continue to do the things they do.

Will be interesting to see what the draft will look like after having a franchise-level quarterback on the roster, a new GM and a special teams coach in Brad Seely who is both experienced and has a some history of developing good special teams (notably he also has an offensive line background too). Having a good quarterback is a force multiplier; it makes the rest of your picks look better if you choose well.

Though typically, special teams performance is not consistent from year to year, the Texans have been consistently bad for many years despite efforts to fix it. This is hard to do. Perhaps having a very experienced special teams coach and a different GM perspective can help during the roster construction process when bottom of the roster guys need to also be special teams contributors.

I think the point that Lance made about traits-based choices is a good one, and with Bill O’Brien’s strong personality, I think a secondary characteristic is going to be the test, “Is this an OB kinda guy?” For where the Texans are picking, I think that is very much a tie-breaker. Versatile, team first, try hard, loves football, smart, takes coaching.

Versatility is a trait that O’Brien probably prizes higher than some other teams. This is likely a product of his Patriots background and an acknowledgment of limited roster sizes and the heightened understanding of concussions and taking players off the field as a precaution. The difficulty of prizing versatility is making sure that the players are actually above average and developed competently at a primary position. The issue of jack of all trades, master of none.

Having a strong personality and opinions on things can be both a blessing and a curse. Nothing difficult is achieved in life without a clear purpose and direction. However, when a person in a leadership position has a very strong point of view, it can be a challenge for those around them to push back when needed, which is an observation, I suppose, that can apply to both Bill O’Brien in the draft and Bob McNair in how he makes public statements on controversial issues.

This is obviously a lot to chew on. Do you have your own answers to the draft questions I posed? Please leave them below or contact me on Twitter @StephStradley.