This is part one of a three part series.

While the votes were still rolling in on election night, calls for reforming the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) were already being voiced. The KMT suffered its second crushing national defeat in a row, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) winning a record number of votes and cruising to victory with an increased percentage of the vote; her party easily maintained their majority in the legislature as well.

The KMT is a financial disaster, they have lost the support of younger voters by decisive margins, are far out of the mainstream on the key national sovereignty issue and seem bereft of new ideas. They are in need of radical reform and a new vision in order to secure a future (see parts two and three of this series).

They now have a chance to embark on a new path. Chairman Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) resigned on January 15 to take responsibility for the loss, and a new by-election is to be held to choose his successor on March 7. A new Central Standing Committee will also be elected.

Who will be in the running? So far there are already four declared candidates: Legislator Johnny Chiang (江啟臣), former KMT Vice Chairman and former Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌), National Taiwan University Professor Chang Ya-chung (張亞中), and Blue Sky Action Alliance Chairman Wu Chih-chang (武之璋). Chang and Wu are long shots.

Johnny Chiang is relatively young at 47, and can make a case he is better suited to reach out to young voters. He handily won re-election in his Taichung district, and is one of the highest profile lawmakers in the party.

He is a power player in the Taichung Red Faction, which could both help and hurt his chances. On the plus side, he could get the support of other factional politicians and their supporters in the party membership. On the down side, the factions are traditionally associated with political patronage, corruption and sleaze in general–though Chiang himself appears to have kept his nose pretty clean.

However he would, as a pre-1949 Taiwanese local, run into opposition from the elites in the party who emigrated with, or are descended from, the KMT exodus from China in the late 1940s. It is unclear if the powerful elites–mostly based in the north around Taipei–would be willing to tolerate a Taiwanese from Taichung. True, about to resign Wu Den-yih is also ethnically a Taiwanese from central Taiwan–but he has been deeply loyal to the elites for his entire adult life. Chiang’s loyalties may be questioned. Most KMT chairs have been from the mainlander elites.

Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) is a party heavyweight, and as Vice Chairman he knows his way around the party. He is also the son of former Premier and General Hau Po-tsun (郝柏村), who is revered in deep-blue circles. In the past, serving as Taipei Mayor has been a stepping stone to becoming president–and traditionally (it even used to be a party rule) the party chair and the presidential candidate were one in the same, so on paper this should be his for the taking.

Unfortunately for him, he’s not much of a success story. After leaving the mayoral post, his legacy was decisively damaged in two ways. First, to help the party he sought the legislator seat of Keelung, Taipei’s much smaller neighbor. He was ignominiously defeated. In Taipei, they elected as mayor political independent Ko Wen-je, who campaigned on a platform largely consisting of being the antithesis of Hau.

Though a hearty and hale man, at 68 he is also hardly the man to appeal to the youth–though he denies being old. In his favor, his legendary father and his mainlander elite background will serve him well in attracting votes from the powerful Huang Fuhsing military veterans group, however, and they are a force to be reckoned with. As vice chairman he also would have had ample opportunity to meet and build relationships with key people in the party nationwide.

Who else might join the race?

Kaohsiung Mayor and defeated candidate for president in the last election Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) has said he isn’t interested. In the aftermath of the election, it would be very unseemly for him to declare his intent. The normal procedure–which he followed before being drafted to run in the party presidential primary–is to wait for widespread calls to run for the post, then “reluctantly accept”. Will he “reluctantly accept”?

Maybe. We know he has wanted the post in the past: He ran for the post in 2017, and lost. According to a report in Mirror Media, he has been actively recruiting his hardcore “Han army” of supporters to KMT membership, with an eye on boosting his vote within the party. During the campaign he talked about how he would reform the KMT after the election, with increasing frequency in the final week or two of the election. Partly, this was likely a feint to give his fanatically loyal followers something to blame his inevitable defeat on: It was the KMT’s fault!

There is some truth to this, but he was also to blame. He does have a case to make, however, if he wanted to run. Compared to Eric Chu’s 2016 run, he did much better, beating him by 1.7 million votes. He united the pan-blue camp, effectively vanquishing James Soong and the PFP, who had split the pan-blue vote last time. However, Han is likely exhausted after running for Kaohsiung Mayor, in the KMT primary and then the presidential race. He is also facing a potential recall vote to remove him from the mayor’s office.

Another candidate being bandied about is Sean Lien (連勝文), son of former Vice President and ex-KMT Chairman Lien Chan. At 49, by the standards of the KMT he is practically a swaddling baby. Unfortunately for him, he was the KMT candidate who was crushed by Ko Wen-je in the Taipei mayoral race–his one and only attempt at elected office. He was widely mocked by young voters for being an out-of-touch princling. Not a promising start for reaching out to the youth vote. Son of a former Vice President, he has said that hundreds of people have messaged him to run, but he has likened taking the job at this time to being like “jumping in a pit of fire.”

Former Chairman and ex-New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫) is another name being widely discussed. He has two major problems. He has already been the chairman, and didn’t do much to improve the party’s standing, getting crushed even more badly than Han Kuo-yu as their presidential candidate in 2016. However, he topped an early poll by a sizable margin. Chu has said he would make a decision after the Lunar New Year Holiday, but has hinted he’s not in the running.

An early favorite who polled in second place after Eric Chu, Lawmaker Wayne Chiang (蔣萬安), has remained coy–but many are speculating he is more likely eyeing a run for Taipei Mayor in 2022. At age 41 he’s the youngest of the high profile potential candidates, and he’s fawned over for his good looks. As the grandson of Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國), he has a potential built-in support base among those who revered his grandfather. Others, however, may fear that legacy might be a poor look for the party with the public at large, many of whom revile his family for their actions during the martial law era.

The one person in the party who is popular, widely respected and has the standing to take on the job is former national police chief and current New Taipei Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜). As a local Taiwanese but not associated with the political patronage factions (unlike Johnny Chiang), he would likely have appeal across a much wider range of Taiwan society, but also would face the same kinds of suspicions as Johnny Chiang. He also appears to have the drive, discipline and possibly the vision to enact the kind of changes the party needs.

There is no indication he wants the position at this point, however. He appears to remain committed to his current job for the time being. Hou was previously courted by the DPP, and hasn’t always followed the party line–for example ignoring party instructions to hold a flag-raising ceremony on the Republic of China national day on October 10. It is hard to see the party elites being anything other than suspicious of his ability to carry forth their pro-China unification ideology. He also has kept his distance from Han, mocking him early in the race–suggesting he may have trouble winning over Han’s supporters as well. If he decides to run, it will be a bombshell. To win it would be an uphill battle, but if he succeeded he’d be the most likely candidate to genuinely reform the party and put it back on the path of electability.

Tainan City Councillor Hsieh Lung-chie (謝龍介) previously declared he would run, then appeared to have backed off, but now says “I haven’t ruled out any options”. He is likely a long shot.

Other names have been bandied about, but appear to not want the job. Former President and former KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has said he has already had the job. Terry Gou (郭台銘), who has left the party and likely wouldn’t qualify, seems uninterested in spite of many followers pushing for him to run.

Who will the party pick?

Without knowing the full slate of candidates yet, that’s unclear. What is clear is that the final choice will be indicative of the state of the party.

Of the two current heavyweights in the race, Hau Lung-bin and Johnny Chiang, we can see the outlines of two paths forward for the party. Choosing Hau would be the obvious traditional choice. He’s of the right family, he has the contacts and the resume. Choosing Chiang would be the riskier choice in the eyes of the old guard and the elites, but he represents much of what the party needs desperately: He’s young, vigorous and popular.

From the outside, Chiang would seem the logical choice to reinvigorate the party and start the process of making the party acceptable again to middle of road, Taiwanese and younger voters. Hau represents all the things that turn off those voters, he’s a princeling, older and associated with pro-Chinese Communist Party figures.

But outsiders and the general voting public have no say; the party membership does. Party members are generally older, more conservative, more pro-China and skew heavily towards mainland elites. In short, the voting membership more resembles Hau than Chiang, and may vote accordingly.

In normal times, Hau would be the overwhelming favorite to win. But these aren’t normal times, however. The party has been crushed twice in a row in national elections, and many do seem to be aware that the party needs reform. The question is, though–will they act on that? That’s hard to say. And that’s what makes this race so interesting.

(Feature photo from KMT’s Facebook Page)