In the latest propaganda released by the Islamic State — a 42-minute audio message distributed on social media that threatens Western audiences, noting Canada in particular — there was this truth amid all the bluster: “If you fight it, it becomes stronger and tougher. If you leave it alone, it grows and expands.”

That is the quagmire facing Western nations, including Ottawa.

Fight the Islamic State (also known as ISIS and ISIL) that is terrorizing large swaths of Syria and Iraq and more recruits will inevitably be drawn into the battle, as the group claims the West is at war with Islam.

Experienced fighters from Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan and elsewhere have already been seduced into the group’s ranks, along with aspiring jihadists from Europe, North America and Australia.

“Leave it alone,” and the people of Syria and Iraq continue to suffer and the Islamic State expands its territory in an already-turbulent region.

What is less clear is the radical Sunni Islamic group’s ability to deliver on threats made in the video released Sunday night of attacks against countries that have joined a U.S.-led coalition to combat the Islamic State.

Militant spokesperson Abu Mohammed al-Adnani mentions Canada three times in the audio recording, warning that Canadians should “not feel secure even in your bedrooms.”

Responding to the threat Monday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper told reporters in Ottawa that Canada’s security agencies are aware of the risks posed by the Islamic State militants. “They track these threats very closely. They work very closely with our allies in identifying threats, both organizations and individuals,” he said.





Canada’s security services state there are 30 known Canadians who have joined the militants abroad, although the unofficial tally is much higher. Some Canadians have already been killed in the battle, such as Calgary resident and Islam convert, Damian Clairmont.

According to Public Safety Canada’s 2014 terrorism threat report, “the government is aware of about 80 individuals who have returned to Canada after travel abroad for a variety of suspected terrorism-related purposes.” But the report notes that those “purposes varied widely,” including study at extremists schools, fundraising or paramilitary activities and does not specify the countries involved or time frame of travel.

Canada has always faced the threat of Al Qaeda-inspired terrorism, since Osama bin Laden’s initial pronouncements soon after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and because of our leading role in Afghanistan.

And the Islamic State has not yet shown much capability of striking outside its borders — although various plots have been disrupted and there is always the threat of a so-called “lone wolf” attack, such as the May fatal shootings of four people at Belgium’s Jewish Museum. The French suspect reportedly spent time in Syria and was among those who tortured Western hostages.

On Thursday, Sydney police said they thwarted plots to behead Australian citizens in the name of the Islamic State. Six suspects remain in custody following what was described as the largest raid in the country’s history. Australia’s attorney general, George Brandis, also confirmed that one of the Islamic State’s senior leaders, who was born in Afghanistan, had spent time in Australia.

While the identities of various Canadians fighting in Syria and Iraq have been made public, none have yet been identified as leaders in the movement.

“The terrorism threat level to Canada probably has not changed much at this point,” said Jez Littlewood, an associate professor specializing in terrorism studies at Norman Patterson School of International Affairs. “But (the Islamic State) has clearly put Western democracies in their sights so I would expect this threat, including the threat to Canada, to go upward — whether that’s one individual or one cell of returnees, at this point we’re dancing in the dark because we just don’t have concrete information.”

If the threat assessment here remains murky, so too is the strategy for combating the Islamic State.

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Littlewood is among those concerned with the lack of long-term planning.

“There’s this underlying assumption that we’re going to set up this coalition of the willing and it will involve regional partners and we’ll do airstrikes and we’ll supply some arms to blunt the further advance of ISIS,” he said in an interview Monday. “But how are we going to deal with this beyond the next six months … because my suspicion is we will be dealing with this for another two to five years.”

Ottawa has been heavy on rhetoric and light on details in terms of Canada’s contribution.

“The question we must answer today is how do we, as an international community of civilized nations, confront this dangerous and nihilistic force?” Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird asked at a special United Nations Security Council meeting Friday.

But he did not offer many answers aside from Canada’s participation in a “working conference” led by Bahrain and $10 million in non-lethal military support to Iraqi forces.

Canada is reportedly also sending 69 special forces personnel to serve as advisers.

And while Baird told the meeting Canada is concerned about the dire humanitarian crisis of fleeing Syrians and Iraqis, a Star report this weekend highlighted that Canada has accepted fewer than 200 Syrian refugees, while Sweden, which has only a quarter of Canada’s population, has settled more than 30,000 Syrians.

Harper defended Canada’s position in combating the Islamic State on Monday, saying there had been a strong humanitarian aid component “but our military presence and military assistance to people on the ground who are resisting the growth of (the Islamic State) is a very important component of that activity.”

The National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM) on Monday also condemned the terror group’s actions and messages as “repulsive” and “un-Islamic.”

“The NCCM once again joins Muslims across Canada and around the world in reaffirming its categorical condemnation of violent extremism and terrorism of any kind. Nothing can justify such actions.”

With files from the Star’s Bruce Campion-Smith in Ottawa.

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