Paul Dehner Jr.

Cincinnati

An underlying factor in the rest of the Bengals free agent season as Michael Johnson bolts for Tampa Bay and I think most assume Anthony Collins lands elsewhere will be how the compensatory pick process could alter their thinking.

First off, spending money on free agents wasn't the plan this offseason. The available money -- which will get spent, folks -- is going to be directed within and focused on locking up their own long term.

The only moves they might make in regards to free agency would be a reserve to provide depth, most likely along the offensive line. But when looking at who is out there remember they might want to stay away from official unrestricted free agents (Players cut or released by their teams wouldn't apply to this scenario).

The reason being the payoff in the 2015 draft could be significant. Assuming Johnson at his salary goes on to have a decent year in Tampa Bay, it would likely end in a third-round compensatory pick for the Bengals. Should Collins go on to have a decent season as well, he'd probably land in the fourth round area -- maybe even a third rounder if he excelled.

Those would be valuable commodities for the Bengals if you consider the caliber of player they've been finding in the third and fourth round over recent years.

2008: DT Pat Sims (3rd), WR Andre Caldwell (3rd), OL Anthony Collins (4th)

2009: DE Michael Johnson (3rd), TE Chase Coffman (3rd), C Jonathan Luigs (4th)

2010: WR Jordan Shipley (3rd), CB Brandon Ghee (3rd), DT Geno Atkins (4th), Roddrick Muckelroy (4th)

2011: DE Dontay Moch (3rd), OL Clint Boling (4th)

2012: WR Mohamed Sanu (3rd), DT Brandon Thompson (3rd), FB/TE Orson Charles (4th)

2013: S Shawn Williams (3rd), LB Sean Porter (4th)

In the 2010 draft, the Bengals were awarded a third-round compensatory pick for losing T.J. Houshmandzadeh and fourth-round pick for losing OL Stacy Andrews. This would be a similar situation, maybe with Johnson more of a lock to garner at 3.

Now, all of that can be tossed away if the Bengals were sign two UFAs, even if they were just reserve players. You have to have a net loss in free agency if you are to be awarded a compensatory. So, if a UFA that's not top of the line comes through the question the Bengals would have to ask themselves is -- would he be worth giving up a third or fourth rounder? Considering those the Bengals would be choosing between, the answer will likely be no. Any free agent they do sign -- which, again, could realistically be nobody -- would probably be a player released by their former team.

Expectations are the Bengals will receive two picks in the fifth/sixth range for the losses of Manny Lawson, Pat Sims and Bruce Gradkowski in free agency last season. Those picks are determined during the league meeting in Orlando later this month.