About Last Week:

Drake… yo, Drake… MOM MADE PIZZA ROLLS

The Road Ahead:

Indiana (4-5, 0-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Iowa, 35-27

Recap: All in all, not a bad performance by Indiana. The Hoosiers gave up a 65 yard touchdown run on the second play of the game, but they managed to cut Iowa’s lead to 21-20 in the fourth quarter before the Hawkeyes pulled away and Indiana was unable to recover a late onside kick.

Still, Indiana had a rough parity in yards (they were outgained 467-407), and at no point did Iowa look like they one would expect from the #5 team in the CFP rankings when taking on a team that is winless in conference play. The Hoosiers have now played Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa close… and lost to Rutgers and played very tight games with Wake Forest, WKU, and Florida International, and SIU.

Can a team still be #CHAOSTEAM if they win the games they are supposed to win and lose the games they are supposed to lose, but they do each in chaotic fashion?

This team is as frightening as: Eh. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Jordan Howard. Howard is averaging over 6.0 yards per carry, and has exceeded 20 carries and 145 yards in every game he’s played in which he has been remotely healthy. He shows really good balance, patience, and burst, and can find the holes that open up in front of him. That last fact is somewhat important, ya know?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana is last in the B1G in scoring defense, 13th in yards per play allowed, 13th in yards per pass allowed, 13th in yards per carry allowed, 13th in defensive S&P+, last in opponent first downs per game, last in opponent 3rd down conversion rate, and last in opponent scrimmage plays of >20 yards, >30 yards, >40 yards, >50 yards, >60 yards, >70 yards, and >80 yards.

When they play Michigan: This is what the Hoosiers are facing:

Some would see this as a reason to fire Kevin Wilson. I see it as the best argument for why they should keep Kevin Wilson, at least for another year. Right now, the Big Ten East is a group of haves and a group of have-nots. Selling Indiana to an up-and-coming coach at this point would be extremely difficult. Dino Babers and PJ Fleck aren’t going to jump at an opportunity that will put them in the same division as Urban Meyer, Jim Harbaugh, and Mark Dantonio, especially in a year with this many job openings. Kevin Wilson’s program hasn’t been fantastic, but by Indiana standards it hasn’t been bad.

This week: vs. Michigan, 3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2

[After THE JUMP, nobody like Indiana]

Penn State (7-3, 4-2)

Last week: Lost at Northwestern, 23-21

Recap: James Franklin has not gotten much better with the timeouts. Late in the game with Penn State up 21-20, Northwestern was driving for a potential game-winning score, and had reached the Penn State 24 yard line. With 0:52 left in the game, Northwestern executed a running play with Justin Jackson that made very clear that Northwestern was content to settle for a 40-ish yard field goal for the win. Faced with this knowledge, Franklin had two options:

· Use your timeouts (they had all three left) and force Northwestern to leave you about 30-35 seconds for a desperation drive, and gamble you can keep them from picking up a first down or gaining too much additional yardage.

· Let Northwestern piss away the remaining time on the clock and let the Wildcats gamble on a 40 yarder from a kicker who had already missed two field goals and an extra point.

Both are defensible. So of course Franklin charted a middle course on a two-lane highway, opting to let thirty seconds run off the clock and then start using his timeouts, leaving himself with basically no time on the clock and forcing Northwestern to run two additional plays in which to gain yardage. Much like the Hoke/Franklin poker game last year, one coach played a Skip card, and the other responded by playing a gingerbread man card from Candyland.

More disturbing than Penn State’s ICP-like confusion with how clocks work, the Nittany Lions saw the return of Bad Hackenberg. Hack completed 21/40 for 205 yards (5.1 YPA) and a pick. In fact, the nicest deep ball thrown on the day was chucked up by Geno Lewis on the most ill-advised Rube-Goldberg-reverse-pass-with-a-dribble-in-the-middle play you’re likely to see.

This team is as frightening as: We now return you to your regularly scheduled rock, already not in progress.

Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Once you move sack yardage from run game and apply them to the passing game (which is pretty damn logical when you think about it), Penn State’s defense is #1 in the country in yards per pass attempted allowed at 3.98 YPA.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Using the same methodology, Penn State is #83 in the country in yards per carry allowed at 5.09 YPC. And guess which way Michigan would prefer to attack Penn State.

When they play Michigan: 27 for >27

This week: Bye

Ohio State (9-0, 5-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Minnesota, 28-14

Recap: The return of Cardale Jones as the starting quarterback brought the return of “eh, I suppose that was impressive-adjacent.” The Buckeyes jumped out to a 21-0 lead, but Minnesota cut the lead to 21-14 with two minutes left before a Jones keeper through a drawn-up defense sealed it.

The Buckeyes are currently #3 in the CFP rankings, and with games remaining against Michigan State, Michigan, and (if they win those two) Iowa, winning out would certainly lock them into the Final Four. What is more interesting to ponder is what the committee would do if Ohio State wins impressively over Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan, but loses an ugly, fluky game to Iowa. Just think about it. Oh, if they didn’t choose Iowa, and ESPECIALLY if the committee somehow still chose Ohio State, Iowa would burn. And I imagine it would smell a lot like Jiffy Pop

This team is as frightening as: OBJECTIVE CONSIDERATIONS DON’T MATTER; RIVALRY GAME. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Objective considerations seem to indicate that Ohio State is really pretty good.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: You were instructed to throw the records out the window. Please do so.

When they play Michigan: There's a pretty good chance it'll be for a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game. And there's a pretty good chance this will be true in many future seasons.

This week: @ Illinois, noon, ABC

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Utah (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12)

Last week: Won at Washington, 34-23

Recap: After a couple of shaky performances, Utah beat a solid if unremarkable Washington team by double-digits. Devontae Booker finished with 150 yards on 34 carries and Travis Wilson… didn’t set anyone on fire.

Utah is hanging around at #10 in the playoff rankings, but you can kiiiiiind of draw up a scenario where they squeak into the 4-spot: they’d need to beat UCLA (and Arizona and Colorado), and then beat Stanford in the Pac 12 Championship game. They’d need Oklahoma State and Baylor to lose, Stanford to beat Notre Dame, and probably some hijinks in the Big Ten that knocked one or both of Ohio State or Iowa out of the picture. But it’s possible.

They would then get throttled pillar to post by Clemson or Alabama.

This week: @ Arizona, 10:00 p.m., FS1

Oregon State (2-7, 0-6 Pac-12)

Last week: Lost to UCLA, 41-0

Recap:

This week: @ Cal, 10:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network

UNLV (3-6, 2-3 MWC)

Last week: Beat Hawaii, 41-21

Recap: I know they say that “a win is a win.” And that might be true in a technical sense, but beating a 2-7 (0-6 in the MWC) who is essentially without a head coach is probably less of a win than a lot of other wins. Perhaps it is more accurate to say that a win is not a loss. And this game was not a loss for UNLV.

This week: @ Colorado State, 7:00 p.m., no TV because Geneva Convention

BYU (7-2)

Last week: Beat San Jose State, 17-16

Recap: Despite being a win, which we JUST discussed as being by definition “not a loss,” this one might actually be a loss. San Jose State, which is awful and coached by Greg Robinson and Al Borges and Dan Ferrigno (not that I’m saying those facts are related (though they probably are)), scored a touchdown with 45 seconds left, but their two point conversion play was a wide receiver end-around pass that was so poorly designed that the design of the play actually forced the defense to defend it.

Never change, Al.

This week: @ Missouri, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

Maryland (2-7, 0-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Wisconsin, 31-24

Recap: At least it’s basketball season.

This week: @ Michigan State, noon, ESPN2

Northwestern (7-2, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Penn State, 23-21

Recap: We already discussed Penn State’s end-of-game decision making ineptitude, but it’s likely that Pat Fitzgerald’s decision making was even worse

Fitz says that once NU got inside the 33 on the final drive, they would settle for the field goal. — Inside NU (@insidenu) November 7, 2015

Yep, you read that right. Once they reached 50-yard field goal territory, Fitz was comfortable shutting it down. And his playcalling thereafter made it clear he was serious. With a kicker who had already missed from 39 and 47 yards, and who was 2 of 6 from 40-49 yards on the season. With over a minute left.

Look, I get that touchdowns are scary. People usually have much more success relying on college kickers. But why not, you know, try to get your kicker closer to the big sticks? You have more than a minute left.

In any case, Northwestern remains a tough team to slot. They’re 7-2, but those two losses were to two really good teams, but those two losses to really good teams were by a combined ALL THE POINTS.

This week: vs. Purdue, noon, BTN

Michigan State (8-1, 4-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Nebraska, 39-38

Recap:

Okay, with that out of the way, we need to clarify something. This ending wasn’t “karma” or divine retribution or cosmic realignment for the end of the Michigan game. That’s not how it works.

HOWEVER, you can really easily make an argument that when you play enough one-score, coin toss, high leverage games, you can’t be surprised when something unexpected goes against you and ends up making the difference in the score. State played very tight games against Purdue, Rutgers, Michigan, and Indiana leading up to this game, and won all four.

Bad calls are part of the game (as anyone who has watched a Big Ten game this year can attest), and there is no way to know when they will strike or who they will hurt. The only way to protect yourself against them is to take the game outside the range where it will matter. If that play happens when Michigan State has either of its two multiple-score fourth quarter leads, they’re laughing about it today. State has played down to their competition all year, and it finally cost them.

Also, it's probably worth noting that Nebraska drove 60 yards in the first 17 seconds of the drive, so how sure are we that they wouldn't have diven the last 30 yards of the drive in those final 17 seconds if the touchdown had been waived off?

One hopes Mark Dantonio will take these lessons to heart so nothing like this happens to South Carolina next year.

This week: vs. Maryland, noon, ESPN2

Minnesota (4-5, 1-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 28-14

Recap: We salute you, head coach Tracy Claeys.

This week: @ Iowa, 8:00 p.m., BTN