Every day, Iran is inching towards a reckoning. Whether it’s America, Israel, or Saudi Arabia, Iran has no shortage of adversaries and dangers. But what many are missing is the internal conflict. A battle over Iran’s soul. A battle that is at times agnostic to outside forces, but squarely focused on Iran’s past, present, and future.

They are Iran’s nationalists. A prime example of why western concepts of left, right, nationalism, secularism, etc… do not apply in so many, if not most countries. A breaking point is approaching in an ancient land, and an increasingly familiar force is rising to usurp the old usurpers.

Old Tales

Ruins of Persepolis – Ancient Capital of Achaemenid Empire in Iran

Iran has been home to one of the oldest civilizations in all of humanity. Its relationship with its adjacent neighbors has been in constant flux, but it has always had a tall influence over the Middle East, Central Asia, and even South Asia. Recently, flames have erupted on Iran’s relationship with Israel and Arabia – a political manifestation of its relationship with Judaism and (Sunni) Islam.

In 559 BC, Cyrus the Great ascended the throne of the Median Empire. He would go on to greatly expand it into a massive empire spread across the Middle East. But Cyrus’s campaign of domination would not be his greatest influence. Instead, it would be his ideals and legacy.

Cyrus’s conquest or “liberation” of Babylon as described in the Bible was one of the first incidents of interaction between the Jewish and Persian civilizations. Ancient Hebrew scriptures describe him as a man of God and savior to the Jews of Babylon who had been brutally oppressed by the prior rulers. He would be praised as a prophet in many Abrahamic traditions, something very significant as its fairly clear historically that Cyrus did not worship the God of Abraham, instead being a pagan. Cyrus is seen as one of the first extollers of human rights in history with his values transcribed on the Cyrus Cylinders. He represents a positive relationship and adoration between the Jews and Persians. One would think this could be the source of a strong and lasting relationship between Israel and Iran, but of course, there are more than 2 players in this game.

Enter Arabia and Islam.

Nasr al-Mulk Mosque – Shiraz, Iran

With the end of the brutal Byzantine-Sassanid War of the early 600s CE, the Sassanid Empire of Iran was exhausted and in recovery. However time waits for no empire, let alone an individual. A caliphate of Islam had arisen in Arabia that had united the frequently warring Arab tribes. Their newfound unity, battle tactics, and prized Arabian horses would lead them to steamroll almost every single foe they encountered, including the Iranians.

Once their total victory over the Sassanids was cemented, the Islamization of Iran started. Unlike Mesopotamia, Egypt, and the Levant, Persians kept much of their original language and culture and did not become Arabs like the aforementioned. This thread to the past is crucial to understanding Iran today. While many Persians were persecuted to convert, others did it willingly or for social mobility. The Caliphate’s jizya tax on non-Muslims served as a strong incentive for the empire keep a non-muslim population for extra taxing, and for individuals to convert to Islam. The latter would end up tipping this balance. Iran would go on to produce much of the art, science, and literature from Islam’s Golden Age.

This Islamic conquest would form 2 conflicting perspectives for modern day Iranians: either a blessing as they embraced the one true faith and benefited from the Caliphate’s governance, or as a civilizational downfall and Arab tyranny.

The Islamic revolution in Iran would promote the former; but as their influence wanes, the latter idea is gaining traction today.

Rebellion

As a revolution would overthrow the Shah of Iran in 1979, Islamic hardliners leading the efforts would capture the government and convert Iran to a theocracy. They would promote the native Shi’ite interpretation of Islam, which was traditionally engrossed in a bloody conflict with Sunni Islam, now mainly patronized by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Sunni and Iranian Shia would become a major force in the overall conflict of the Middle East. Both nations would jostle for power and influence using oil as both a literal and figurative fuel for their aggressions. Throw in some America, Israel, Russia and a few other minor players in there, and we have ourselves a cocktail of catastrophes unfolding.

2018 Student Protests Against Iranian Regime

Under the Islamic Republic, Iran’s direction is to spread the influence of Shia Islam primarily as an ideology to promote the influence of Iran. Ancient religions and customs are looked unfavorably upon as heathen practices. However with the deteriorating economic and social situation in Iran, the tides of the nationalists have come knocking on the doors of the Ayatollah. Women protesting veils, anti-cleric demonstrations, and nationalist rallies at pre-Islamic Persian sites have become more and more commonplace these days. Even the Islamic regime has started to embrace Iran’s ancient roots in an effort to co-opt the surging nationalism as well as quell it.

Uncertainties

Say Iran’s nationalists conduct their own revolution to topple the theocracy. What happens then?

It’s such an intriguing question because of the complex web of geopolitics and power that rests with Iran.

Iran could abandon its unpopular at home allegiance to Palestine and channel Cyrus’s magnanimity to foster better relations with Israel. How would Israel now react as both the Saudis and Iranians vie for their favor? Now put in the USA’s input on such an earthquake in geopolitics, and you have yourself a tornado of change on the horizon. Oil flows will change directions between countries, and the US-Saudi Arabian petrodollar relationship would be put to the test.

Shia Islam is a strong method of influence that lets Iran exert its clout on groups such as the Houthis of Yemen, Hezbollah of Lebanon and Palestine, as well as Shias across the world in places like Iraq and Syria. This is a valuable tool in Iran’s perpetual war against Saudi Arabia. Would it be wise for Iran’s nationalists to throw away this Shia or even plain Islam itself to restore Iran’s ancient glory?

What could happen is that Iran provides a model for other countries in embracing local/nationalistic roots rather than partaking in a pan-Arab or pan-Islamic coalition that frequently sees Saudi Arabia controlling other states as it is the birthplace of Islam. Lebanon could invoke its Phoenician heritage over its Arab one. Syria would embrace its Assyrian roots; Iraq its Mesopotamian grandeur, while Egypt would channel its Pharaonic or Coptic roots.

This all seems a bit far-fetched, but Iran’s spark of nationalism could light the embers of these small splinter groups across the Middle East and North Africa. As the internet and knowledge spreads, people will delve into their roots and past; however, they may not enjoy what they see and how they became to be.

One may see an ideological battle: Pan-Arabism and more extreme versions of Islam on one side versus Local/Nationalist identities and secular tones of Islam or even full secularism on the other. A new version of the eternal game of the Middle East would now be born. All the while, watchful observers and strategists in foreign countries such as the USA, Russia, China, and India will have a watchful eye on what unfolds. It may end up being one of these nations that decides which faction will prevail in the battle for Iran’s identity and future.