The high court decision to send West Australians back to the polls creates many possibilites – some more difficult than others

For the Abbott government, the West Australian half-Senate election could change everything. Here’s why.

The government has been counting on getting key elements of its agenda – including repealing the former government’s climate policies – through the new Senate, which sits from July.



Under either the WA Senate result that stood after last year’s appeal (three Liberals, one Labor, one Sports party and one Green) or the original result announced after the September election (three Liberals, two Labor, one PUP) the government could probably have expected four votes in favour of most of its legislative proposals and two against.



But if the WA half-Senate poll results in the election of two Labor senators and one Green – with the other three seats all going to the Liberals or perhaps two to the Liberals and one to a conservative-leaning independent – then the government could expect WA senators to deliver three votes in favour of most of its proposals and three against.



And that would make the balance of power in the new Senate a much more fluid proposition and possibly reduce the power of the PUP.



As things stood before Thursday’s high court decision, the government needed six out of eight crossbench votes.



It was hopeful of getting that support for much of its legislation from Liberal Democratic senator elect from NSW David Leyonhjelm, Family First senator elect from South Australia Bob Day, and four senators either elected from the Palmer United party or joining with Palmer in a voting bloc. PUP has definitely secured two Senate seats: Glenn Lazarus in Queensland and Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania. It had hopes of a third – Dio Wang in the disputed WA Senate result – and had secured a voting bloc with the Victorian Motoring Enthusiast senator elect from Victoria, Ricky Muir, as well as forging a close relationship with Sports party Wayne Dropulich, who may have taken Wang’s Senate seat had the high court not ordered a fresh election.



If the new WA election removes one conservative-leaning vote that calculation changes. If it reduces the PUP bloc from four to three, the Coalition will need six out of seven crossbench votes. If it reduces the Liberals’ own count by one the government will need seven out of eight crossbench votes. Either way, it will again need independent senator Nick Xenophon and/or DLP senator John Madigan.



And that could change the debate on key parts of Abbott’s agenda. For example:



• On climate change, Xenophon and Madigan are likely to vote for the carbon tax repeal, but Xenophon has said he wants significant changes to “direct action” to make sure it actually works. Leyonhjelm and Day have said they are inclined to vote against direct action.



• Xenophon and Madigan have also said they will not vote for the government’s proposed abolition of the $10bn Clean Energy Finance Corporation, which is also opposed by Labor and the Greens.

• On industry policy, the pair – who have worked together on many issues – are more supportive of continued government assistance and wary of the government’s new “line in the sand”.



There is, of course, no guarantee the new Senate election will change the balance of conservative/progressive votes from the state. The government has again gained ground in recent nationwide opinion polls.



But it is a possibility, one that would make the government’s dealings with the Senate a more difficult and less predictable exercise.

