Maureen Groppe

USA TODAY

Former senator Evan Bayh’s once-healthy lead in the race for his old Senate seat in Indiana has evaporated, according to a Monmouth University poll released Monday showing Bayh in a dead heat with GOP Rep. Todd Young.

While the poll also showed GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump regaining strength since mid-October in Indiana, Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Gregg has maintained his lead over Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb, despite a tightening of that race.

But the 5-point margin of error still leaves a lot of uncertainty about the eventual outcomes.

The Senate race is closest, with 45% of respondents choosing Bayh and 45% choosing Young to replace retiring Sen. Dan Coats. Libertarian Lucy Brenton was the choice of 4%. Bayh had a 6- to 7-point lead in prior Monmouth polls taken in mid-October and August.

Since Bayh's late entry into the race in July, he’s been hit by a steady stream of articles and ads critical of his post-Senate work for a Washington law and lobbying firm and for a private equity fund, including stories about the amount of time he spent job-hunting his last year in office.

The super PAC helping Senate Republicans released two new ads against Bayh on Monday, the same day the campaign arm of Senate Democrats reported spending another $800,000 on ads against Young.

Democrats have attacked Young for improperly taking a homestead deduction in the past and for mistakes made when accepting and reporting contributions to his 2010 House campaign, which resulted in fines by the Federal Election Commission.

Negative views of both Bayh and Young have crept up in the past two weeks, with Bayh affected more than Young.

The share of respondents with an unfavorable view of Bayh increased from 19% in August and 26% in mid-October to 32% in the past week. His favorability rating has dropped from 46% in August to 38% recently.

Young is still not as well-known as Bayh, with 45% having no general impression of him. Among those who do, Young’s unfavorability rating has increased from 15% in August to 24% in recent days. The share of respondents who view him favorably remains at about 30%.

Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey, said Trump’s improved showing in Indiana has contributed to the tightening of the Senate race.

“Attacks on Bayh’s out-of-state activities have certainly led to this shift, but renewed strength at the top of the ticket is providing a crucial assist for Young,” Murray said.

Trump’s 11-point lead over Hillary Clinton is larger than the 4-point lead he had in mid-October and matches his standing in Monmouth’s August survey. Trump improved his performance among women and college graduates in Indiana. He’s now leading among both men and women, as well as among both college graduates and Hoosiers without a four-year college degree.

The poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, amid the breaking news that the FBI discovered new emails which the agency planned to review in case they were relevant to a prior investigation of Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of State. Among respondents called after the news broke Friday, 85% said the development had no impact on their vote.

“Earlier this month it looked like Clinton could potentially make a play for Indiana, but that opportunity has faded,” Murray said. “While the email news does not play a decisive role in the presidential contest, a couple of points on the margins could be having a critical impact on tight down-ballot races.”

In the gubernatorial contest, Gregg’s lead over Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb narrowed since the 12-point margin in the last Monmouth poll. But Gregg still leads Holcomb 48% to 42%. Libertarian Rex Bell has 4%.

The poll was conducted by telephone with 402 Indiana residents who are likely to cast ballots Nov. 8 or who have already voted. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Here are the full results:

Presidential race:

Republican Donald Trump: 50%

Democrat Hillary Clinton: 39%

Libertarian Gary Johnson: 4%

Undecided/other: 7%

Senate race:

Republican Todd Young: 45%

Democrat Evan Bayh: 45%

Libertarian Lucy Brenton: 4%

Undecided/other: 5%

Gubernatorial race:

Republican Eric Holcomb: 42%

Democrat John Gregg: 48%

Libertarian Rex Bell: 4%

Undecided/other: 5%

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