1. Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A. & Padman, L. Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating. Science 348, 327–331 (2015).

2. Wouters, B. et al. Dynamic thinning of glaciers on the southern Antarctic peninsula. Science 348, 899–903 (2015).

3. Konrad, H. et al. Net retreat of Antarctic glacier grounding lines. Nat. Geosci. 11, 258–262 (2018).

4. DeConto, R. M. & Pollard, D. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531, 591–597 (2016).

5. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).

6. Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).

7. Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A. & Lenaerts, J. Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L05503 (2011).

8. Stouffer, R. J., Seidov, D. & Haupt, B. J. Climate response to external sources of freshwater: North Atlantic versus the Southern Ocean. J. Clim. 20, 436–448 (2007).

9. Fogwill, C. J., Phipps, S. J., Turney, C. S. M. & Golledge, N. R. Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input. Earths Futur. 3, 317–329 (2015).

10. Park, W. & Latif, M. Ensemble global warming simulations with idealized Antarctic meltwater. Clim. Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4319-8 (2018).

11. Bintanja, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Drijfhout, S. S., Wouters, B. & Katsman, C. A. Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion. Nat. Geosci. 6, 376–379 (2013).

12. Pauling, A. G., Smith, I. J., Langhorne, P. J. & Bitz, C. M. Time-dependent freshwater input from ice shelves: impacts on Antarctic sea ice and the Southern Ocean in an Earth system model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 10454–10461 (2017).

13. Rhodes, C. J. The 2015 Paris climate change conference: COP21. Sci. Prog. 99, 97–104 (2016).

14. Oppenheimer, M. Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature 393, 325–332 (1998).

15. Rignot, E. & Jacobs, S. Rapid bottom melting widespread near Antarctic ice sheet grounding lines. Science 296, 2020–2023 (2002).

16. Shepherd, A., Wingham, D. & Rignot, E. Warm ocean is eroding West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L23402 (2004).

17. Obase, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Kusahara, K., Hasumi, H. & Ohgaito, R. Responses of basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves to the climatic forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO 2 doubling. J. Clim. 30, 3473–3497 (2017).

18. Aiken, C. M. & England, M. H. Sensitivity of the present-day climate to freshwater forcing associated with Antarctic sea ice loss. J. Clim. 21, 3936–3946 (2008).

19. Bakker, P., Clark, P. U., Golledge, N. R., Schmittner, A. & Weber, M. E. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge. Nature 541, 72–76 (2017).

20. Swart, N. C. & Fyfe, J. C. The influence of recent Antarctic ice sheet retreat on simulated sea ice area trends. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 4328–4332 (2013).

21. Zhang, R. & Delworth, T. Simulated tropical response to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J. Clim. 18, 1853–1860 (2005).

22. Cabré, A., Marinov, I. & Gnanadesikan, A. Global atmospheric teleconnections and multidecadal climate oscillations driven by Southern Ocean convection. J. Clim. 30, 8107–8126 (2017).

23. Purich, A., Cai, W., England, M. H. & Cowan, T. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes. Nat. Commun. 7, 10409 (2016).

24. Polvani, L. M. & Smith, K. L. Can natural variability explain observed Antarctic sea ice trends? New modeling evidence from CMIP5. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 3195–3199 (2013).

25. Haumann, F. A., Notz, D. & Schmidt, H. Anthropogenic influence on recent circulation-driven Antarctic sea ice changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 8429–8437 (2014).

26. Merino, N. et al. Impact of increasing antarctic glacial freshwater release on regional sea-ice cover in the Southern Ocean. Ocean Model. 121, 76–89 (2018).

27. Bintanja, R., Van Oldenborgh, G. J. & Katsman, C. A. The effect of increased fresh water from Antarctic ice shelves on future trends in Antarctic sea ice. Ann. Glaciol. 56, 120–126 (2015).

28. Shepherd, A. et al. A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance. Science 338, 1183–1189 (2012).

29. Sutterley, T. C. et al. Mass loss of the Amundsen sea embayment of West Antarctica from four independent techniques. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 8421–8428 (2014).

30. Pauling, A. G., Bitz, C. M., Smith, I. J. & Langhorne, P. J. The response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice to freshwater from ice shelves in an Earth system model. J. Clim. 29, 1655–1672 (2016).

31. Goddard, P. B., Dufour, C. O., Yin, J., Griffies, S. M. & Winton, M. CO 2 -induced ocean warming of the Antarctic continental shelf in an eddying global climate model. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 122, 8079–8101 (2017).

32. Stewart, A. L. & Thompson, A. F. Eddy-mediated transport of warm circumpolar deep water across the Antarctic shelf break. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 432–440 (2015).

33. Silvano, A. et al. Freshening by glacial meltwater enhances melting of ice shelves and reduces formation of Antarctic bottom water. Sci. Adv. 4, eaap9467 (2018).

34. Spence, P. et al. Localized rapid warming of West Antarctic subsurface waters by remote winds. Nat. Clim. Chang. 7, 595–603 (2017).

35. Massom, R. A. et al. Antarctic ice shelf disintegration triggered by sea ice loss and ocean swell. Nature 558, 383–389 (2018).

36. Vizcaino, M. et al. Coupled simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and climate change up to AD 2300. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 3927–3935 (2015).

37. Sangiorgi, F. et al. Southern Ocean warming and Wilkes Land ice sheet retreat during the mid-Miocene. Nat. Commun. 9, 317 (2018).

38. Fyke, J., Sergeinko, O., Loftverstorm, M., Price, S. & Lenaerts, J. T. M. An Overview of Interactions and Feedbacks Between Ice Sheets and the Earth System. Rev. Geophys. 56, 361–408 (2018).

39. Stern, A. A., Adcroft, A. & Sergienko, O. The effects of Antarctic iceberg calving-size distribution in a global climate model. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 121, 5773–5788 (2016).

40. Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J. & Scheuchl, B. Ice-shelf melting around Antarctica. Science 341, 266–270 (2013).

41. Stammer, D. Response of the global ocean to Greenland and Antarctic ice melting. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 113, C06022 (2008).

42. Haid, V., Iovino, D. & Masina, S. Impacts of freshwater changes on Antarctic sea ice in an eddy-permitting sea-ice-ocean model. Cryosphere 11, 1387–1402 (2017).

43. He, J., Winton, M., Vecchi, G., Jia, L. & Rugenstein, M. Transient climate sensitivity depends on base climate ocean circulation. J. Clim. 30, 1493–1504 (2017).

44. Swingedouw, D., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H. & Loutre, M. F. Impact of transient freshwater releases in the Southern Ocean on the AMOC and climate. Clim. Dyn. 33, 365–381 (2009).

45. Gregory, J. M. et al. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO 2 forcing. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3993–4017 (2016).

46. Fetterer, F., Knowles, K., Meier, W., Savoie, M. & Windnagel, A. K. Sea ice index, version 3: sea ice extent. National Snow and Ice Data Center https://nsidc.org/data/G02135/versions/3 (2017).

73. NOAA. Data Announcement 88-MGG-02, Digital Relief of the Surface of the Earth https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/global/etopo5.HTML (National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, 1988).

47. Gent, P. R. et al. The community climate system model version 4. J. Clim. 24, 4973–4991 (2011).

48. Dunne, J. P. et al. GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 25, 6646–6665 (2012).

49. Dunne, J. P. et al. GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models. Part II: Carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 26, 2247–2267 (2013).

50. Griffies, S. The Gent-McWilliams skew flux. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 28, 831–841 (1998).

51. Stocker, T. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 33–115 (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2013).

52. Sallée, J. B. et al. Assessment of Southern Ocean water mass circulation and characteristics in CMIP5 models: historical bias and forcing response. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 118, 1830–1844 (2013).

53. Shu, Q., Song, Z. & Qiao, F. Assessment of sea ice simulations in the CMIP5 models. Cryosphere 9, 399–409 (2015).

54. Reintges, A., Martin, T., Latif, M. & Park, W. Physical controls of Southern Ocean deep-convection variability in CMIP5 models and the Kiel climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 6951–6958 (2017).

55. Gordon, A. Deep Antarctic convection west of Maud rise. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 8, 600–612 (1978).

56. de Lavergne, C., Palter, J. B., Galbraith, E. D., Bernardello, R. & Marinov, I. Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 278–282 (2014).

57. Pellichero, V., Sallee, J.-B., Schmidtko, S., Roquet, F. & Charrassin, J.-B. The ocean mixed layer under Southern Ocean sea-ice: seasonal cycle and forcing. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 122, 1608–1633 (2017).

58. Swart, N. C. & Fyfe, J. C. Observed and simulated changes in the southern hemisphere surface westerly wind-stress. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L16711 (2012).

59. Downes, S. M. & Hogg, A. M. Southern Ocean circulation and eddy compensation in CMIP5 models. J. Clim. 26, 7198–7220 (2013).

60. Frölicher, T. L. et al. Dominance of the Southern Ocean in anthropogenic carbon and heat uptake in CMIP5 models. J. Clim. 28, 862–886 (2015).

61. Verdy, A. & Mazloff, M. R. A data assimilating model for estimating Southern Ocean biogeochemistry. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 122, 6968–6988 (2017).

62. Rodgers, K. B., Lin, J. & Froelicher, T. L. Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model. Biogeosciences 12, 3301–3320 (2015).

63. Wang, Z. et al. An atmospheric origin of the multi-decadal bipolar seesaw. Sci. Rep. 5, 8909 (2015).

64. Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Bitz, C. M., Chung, C. T. Y. & Teng, H. Antarctic sea-ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability. Nat. Geosci. 9, 590–595 (2016).

65. Depoorter, M. A. et al. Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves. Nature 502, 89–92 (2013).

66. Dupont, T. & Alley, R. Assessment of the importance of ice-shelf buttressing to ice-sheet flow. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L04503 (2005).

67. Lazeroms, W. M. J., Jenkins, A., Gudmundsson, G. H. & van de Wal, R. S. W. Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes. Cryosphere 12, 49–70 (2018).

68. MacAyeal, D. R. in Oceanology of the Antarctic Continental Shelf (ed. Jacobs, S.) 133–143 (American Geophysical Union, Washington, 1985).

69. Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A. & Holland, D. M. The response of ice shelf basal melting to variations in ocean temperature. J. Clim. 21, 2558–2572 (2008).

70. Little, C. M., Gnanadesikan, A. & Oppenheimer, M. How ice shelf morphology controls basal melting. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 114, C12007 (2009).

71. Goldberg, D. N. et al. Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 117, F02038 (2012).