In 2016 the United States gambled its 70-year supremacy in the Asia-Pacific region and—with Donald Trump’s victory—lost. The risks were already growing. Barack Obama argued for American leadership, but never got Congress behind its economic dimension, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. On the security front, American reticence helped turn the South China Sea into a Chinese lake. China won over the chippy new Philippines president with flattery and an export market for bananas. The North Korean nuclear threat engendered no new ideas (as ever); Japan was left hanging; and Mr Trump sold out Taiwan by suggesting that it might be a bargaining chip, wholly misunderstanding the mainland authorities’ sentiments towards the island democracy. The risks of American-Chinese confrontation have grown. Growing faster are the odds that a China-centred hierarchy will replace a largely rules-based American order. Few neighbours want to submit to such new arrangements—or to be forced to make the choice.