Scott Tilley

Technology

Artificial intelligence continues to dominate the technology news. AI startups are blossoming like desert flowers after a spring rain. Venture capital continues to flow into these startups at a fantastic rate. There’s a lot of money being made, but what is the impact of AI on the economy as a whole? More importantly, what is the effect of increased automation on people’s jobs?

In the past, automation tended to affect blue-collar jobs, such as factory workers. This continues to be true, but the reach of AI is growing, which means even more manual labor is destined for automation. This will have a profound impact on our society, as those struggling on the bottom rungs of the career ladder see the path upwards cut off by robots and algorithms.

Consider oil field workers. For many years, roughnecks could get a good paying job with just a high school diploma. With the current shale and gas boom in places like Oklahoma, Texas, and Wyoming, there are still opportunities for manual workers to earn $150,000. However, those opportunities are far fewer than they were just a few years ago, and they are shrinking rapidly.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal chronicled how AI and automation are affecting oil and gas production. Even though we’re producing about 10 million barrels of oil a day – more than ever before – employment in the industry is down 21 percent since 2014. The oil companies are doing more with less through the use of AI and automation. Jobs like well logger are gone, replaced by sensors and technology.

At the same time, white-collar workers felt sheltered from the growing power of AI because there was an assumption that most jobs involving human interaction and creative thinking could never be automated. That assumption is proving to be false.

In January 2014, I wrote a column here called “Predicting Literary Success.” The column asked whether or not computer algorithms might replace agent expertise when it comes to picking literary winners. The answer was “yes.”

I recently learned about an AI program called ScriptBook from a Belgium-based company that analyzes screenplays to determine which will be a box-office success and which will be a flop. It’s impressively accurate. If you were a movie studio, you’d be very interested in using such a system.

If you were a script reader, a development executive, or a market researcher, you probably wouldn’t like the system at all, because it will obviate your job.

AI and automation are taking over roles that previously were thought to be untouchable: artistic, creative, white-collar jobs that no computer could ever replace. Except now they can.

Tilley is a professor at the Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne. Contact him at TechnologyToday@srtilley.com