news, federal-politics,

Uncommitted voters know about Labor's plans for new taxes but have heard almost nothing about the promised benefits, in a sign of potential trouble for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten's election prospects. Focus groups of uncommitted voters in Melbourne and Western Sydney are unenthusiastic about the leaders of both major parties ahead of the May 18 poll. After three weeks of campaigning, neither Mr Shorten or Prime Minister Scott Morrison are "presenting a compelling case" or seen as "having a vision for the future of Australia", in the words of research firm Ipsos. One consequence was that participants were tending to fall back on old voting habits and party identities, meaning the two main campaigns had failed to make an impression on any of the sample of voters. While all said they'd not yet decided their votes, those who had formerly voted Liberal were mostly inclined to vote Liberal in 2019. The lapsed Labor voters said they were inclined to vote Labor, with only one exception. Mr Shorten was disliked, even by people inclined to vote for his party. One Melbourne man, a pharmaceutical manager named Stewart, said that "he's someone you'd like to punch in the head," and another man agreed enthusiastically. His union ties uniformly were seen as a negative. But members of the groups convened this week did offer offsetting positives about Mr Shorten. Carol in Melbourne said he was "gutsy". Adam in Sydney said he was "calmer" and "more level headed" than Mr Morrison. Mr Shorten was marked up for his longevity as Labor leader: "He's brought a bit of stability to the party," said Ken. "Every year he's in the job, he earns another stripe from me," said Geoff. The most common negative on Mr Morrison was the impression that he is "arrogant". "He's a preacher," said one Melbourne man, and "a salesperson trying too hard" said another. "Lump of coal" was the association for Richard. "He's old fashioned, not moving forward," said Ursula. Stewart was troubled by a lack of information about Mr Morrison: "We don't know anything about him, what's his background?" When reminded that he'd been treasurer, Stewart dismissed this as meaningless. Focus group research, also known as qualitative polling, does not claim to show the size of public support for a party or politician. It is valued for its ability to expose the "why" rather than the "what". Some of the minor parties had captured the attention of the focus groups. Clive Palmer, described by two participants as an "Aussie Trump", had cut through with his bright yellow ads and high visibility. He has so far spent double the sum spent by both major parties combined on advertising. His ads stood out for another reason, participants said - he offered positive ideas, not just criticism. His line about a "bullet train" and implied opposition to Chinese expansion had made an impression. But voters did not see him as a plausible leader: "You wouldn't put him in charge of everything," said one Sydney voter. Pauline Hanson was brought up only in the context of the resignation of her party chairman, Steve Dickson, after his visit to a strip club and the US National Rifle Association. In the same vein, negatives about the main parties had stuck with the voters but very few positives. Participants in the groups were well aware of Labor's plans to curb negative gearing and to cancel cash refunds for self-funded retirees' dividend credits. But, as Ipsos summarised: "Western Sydney participants struggled to identify any specific policy initiatives or announcements from Labor". One man was able to name one plan - to offer dental funding of $1000 every two years for three million retirees. No one in either city seemed to have heard of Labor's plan to cut the out-of-pocket costs of cancer sufferers. Similarly, participants were unable to nominate any Liberal Party policy announcements other than Mr Morrison's commitment to mental health and the announcement of the disability royal commission. But long-standing Coalition brand strengths of economic management and "stopping the boats" were clear in the minds of the groups. Overall, the uncommitted voters volunteered the same word to describe the state of Australian politics a "shambles". Both parties were lashed for the serial dumping of prime ministers. Asked the most important factor in deciding his vote, one Melbourne man began with: "We want a leader who'll start a term..." His sentence was finished by the woman sitting next to him: "And finish it!" This was a popular statement among the group.

https://nnimgt-a.akamaihd.net/transform/v1/crop/frm/fdcx/doc756kz8qadav17yk85f6d.jpg/r20_328_5170_3238_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg