The Theory of Peak Advertising and

The Future of the Web

By Tim Hwang and Adi Kamdar :: October 9, 2013

This paper presents a brief theoretical and empirical grounding for the theory of Peak Advertising -- the argument that an overall slowing in the online advertising industry will eventually force significant shifts in the experience of the web itself.

Key Findings

Key indicators for online advertising effectiveness have declined since the launch of the first banner advertisement in 1994. These declines are increasingly placing pressure on even the most established businesses in the space.



These developments suggest important (and potentially painful) implications for market structure, privacy, and authenticity online.



Existing alternatives appear at present to be insufficient to replace lost revenue from near-future declines in the value of display, search, and mobile advertising.



Ultimately, the economics of the web will necessitate pivotal decisions about the financial underpinnings of the Internet in the decades to come.