Postseason Projection: 11 seed - NIT

Outlook: Wisconsin finds itself in very unfamiliar territory this season as it heads into 2017-18 with perhaps its most uncertain roster makeup in the last 20 years. 20 years is a significant number given the fact that if the Badgers punch a ticket to the Big Dance this season, it would be their 20th consecutive Tourney appearance. The departures of Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koenig, Zak Showalter, and Vitto Brown leaves a gaping hole in production and an opportunity for former role players and young guns to stake their claim on precious up-for-grabs minutes. Greg Gard has proven to be cut from the same cloth as Bo Ryan with his willingness to continue the famous Swing offense and focus on bringing in the right players that fit within the Badger system. This season will be his most challenging as a head coach yet.

The one problem the Badgers don’t have this season is knowing who their alpha dog in the clubhouse is. Ethan Happ returns for his junior season after being named a 3rd Team All-American this past season, leading the Badgers to yet another top three conference finish. There may not be another player in the country that impacts more parts of the game for his team than Ethan Happ does for Wisconsin. On offense, Happ dominates the post using an array of, to put it frankly, simple moves. He’s one of the best rebounders in the country, led the Big Ten in steal rate last season, ranked 8th in block rate, and dished out assists at the 12th best rate in the conference. It’s also worth mentioning that Happ had one of the biggest points per possession impact on his team’s defense last season per Hoop Lens that I’ve come across: with Happ on the floor, Wisconsin allowed 0.90ppp; with Happ off the floor, Wisconsin allowed 1.07ppp.

His ridiculously awful 50% free-throw percentage is almost comical when compared to his overall high-level comprehension of the game. With the insanely high rate at which he gets to the foul line, that is one area Wisconsin needs Happ to button-down in order to be successful.

Happ will be in an unfamiliar situation this season as the clear focus of the Wisconsin attack. Without Hayes or Koenig drawing attention off the talented forward, it will be interesting to see how teams go about defending him and if that affects his impact on offense. However, Wisconsin’s dedication to the Swing offense will likely alleviate some of this pressure as defenders will get cooked if they find themselves out of position worrying too much about Happ in the half court.

While Gard’s rotation is more or less unknown at the moment, it’s pretty safe to say D’Mitrik Trice will be taking up the point guard reigns in his sophomore season. Trice rarely played without either Koenig or Showalter on the floor with him, meaning he saw substantial time playing off the ball in more of a passive role. Now with those two out of Madison, Trice will take over primary ball handling duties, a role in which he should be capable of succeeding.

Trice will be supported in his point duties by incoming freshman Brad Davison and returning sophomore Brevin Pritzl. Davison, a 4-star recruit, looks to be your classic Badger buzz cut guard; he’s a hard-nosed ball handler that possesses fundamental passing ability and exceptional court vision. Pritzl is much better off the ball with his shooting ability and likely starts the season alongside Trice. Despite his 23.8% three-point shooting clip, Nigel Hayes once said that Pritzl is “the best shooter in the country”, so that must make Badger fans feel warm and fuzzy inside.

Aside from Trice, returning wing Khalil Iverson appears to be the only other “surefire” starter – at least when the season starts. Iverson has proven to be a valuable slasher and good rebounder for his position in his limited playing time. He also projects to be one of the better Badger defenders, able to guard multiple positions with his athleticism. Kobe King, an incoming 4-star freshman, is guy I really like to develop into a steady contributor for the Badgers; he is very athletic and, like Iverson, can guard several positions on the floor. I wouldn’t be surprised if he carved out consistent playing time as the season progresses.

The frontcourt situation is a mystery outside of Happ. Alex Illikainen, Charlie Thomas, Aleem Ford, Andy Van Vliet and Nate Reuvers all have legitimate shots at significant playing time. Illikainen probably has the inside track to starting alongside Happ, but it isn’t a strong hold by any stretch of the imagination. So far in his career, Illikainen has not proven to be good rebounder, rim protector, or consistent finisher, three things Wisconsin values in a big.

My money is on Reuvers, Wisconsin’s highest rated recruit from the class of 2017, earning the lion’s share of the minutes by season end. Reuvers is in the same mold as Frank Kaminsky, a tall forward that can stretch the floor past the three-point line and alter shots on the other end. Reuvers's shooting ability is a huge asset to have in the Swing offense, where he should see plenty of open looks catching the ball at the top of the key on the reversal. Aleem Ford is the other guy to watch out for. Ford redshirted last season (ala Ethan Happ back in 2014-15) and is primed to contribute this year. At 6’8” with a lanky build, Ford is really more of a small forward than a power forward but likely will see time alongside Happ at the 4, as Gard likes to throw Happ down at the 5 in a lot of his lineups.

Bottom Line: This will be a challenging year for Wisconsin. With so much turnover from last season’s senior laden squad, Gard must find production from unproven places. I trust the coaching and the system to mold Wisconsin into a competitive ball club this season; the question will be can they overcome a suddenly ruthless middle of the Big Ten.

9. Iowa

Key Returners: Tyler Cook, Cordell Pemsl, Jordan Bohannon, Nicholas Baer, Isaiah Moss, Ahmad Wagner, Dom Uhl

Key Losses: Peter Jok

Key Newcomers: Luke Garza

Lineup: