Mike Michaud would crush Paul LePage—

if only he could

• LePage 34, Michaud 30, Cutler 26 • LePage 37, Pingree 31, Cutler 23 • LePage 36, Cutler 29, Baldacci 27 • LePage 37, Cutler 32, Mills 19 • LePage 37, Cutler 32, Strimling 15

PPP's new Maine poll has news that's both encouragingdepressing for Democrats hoping to get rid of the odious Paul LePage. First, the good news: LePage is one of the most unpopular governors in the country, with a miserable 39-55 job approval rating. The bad news, though, is pretty bad: If independent candidate Eliot Cutler, who allowed LePage to eke out a narrowly plurality win in 2010 thanks to his second-place finish, were to run again ... the same thing would happen again. Here are the results of various three-way trial heats with LePage, Cutler and various Democrats:

The best Team Blue can do is second place, which is where Reps. Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree both wind up. Other options—ex-Gov. John Baldacci, Attorney General Janet Mills, and ex-state Sen. Ethan Strimling—fare worse, and I should point out that none of these would-be candidates are actually running at present. What's so teeth-gnashy about this is how badly LePage performs in one-on-one scenarios, without the left-leaning Cutler in the mix:

• 36-57 vs. Michaud • 38-53 vs. Baldacci • 40-53 vs. Pingree • 41-49 vs. Cutler

Tom Jensen suggests that Democrats either have to pray Cutler doesn't run, or rally around him as they did with independent ex-Gov. Angus King's Senate bid last year and put forward an exceptionally weak nominee who doesn't split enough of the vote to make a difference. But I can't say I like plan B very much: For one, it allows Cutler to play hostage-taking politics with the Democratic Party, and for another, Cutler is actually the weakest possible opponent for LePage, according to these numbers. He doesn't have King's pedigree and profile, and even if Democrats nominate an utter Some Dude, the race would still look pretty much like a tossup.

(Continue reading below the fold.)