Bernie Sanders is gaining momentum in the states that will set the early tone for the 2016 presidential election. A new poll shows Vermont’s independent senator with the support of 30 percent of likely Iowa caucus participants, up 25 points since January, while support for Hillary Clinton, the presumptive frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, has dropped by a third since its high point in May. Clinton is now the first choice of 37 percent, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.

Sanders’ Iowa surge comes on the heels of two consecutive polls in New Hampshire that show him with a seven-point lead over Clinton. The Iowa caucuses kick off the United States’ 2016 election season Feb. 1; New Hampshire holds the nation’s first primary on Feb. 9.

For Clinton, the former Secretary of State, the latest survey marks the first time her support in polls has dropped below 50 percent and has campaign watchers recalling Clinton’s Iowa loss in 2008. Clinton, then a U.S. Senator from New York, entered the primaries as the strong favorite, only to place third in the Iowa caucus and eventually lose the nomination to Barack Obama.

The comparisons don’t end there. Like Obama in 2008, Sanders is attracting more first-time caucus goers — he leads among that group 43 percent to 31 percent — and young voters. Those under 45 favor Sanders by 23 points. He leads among independents by 21 points.

The August survey also shows a surge of attention for Vice President Joe Biden. Though he is not a declared candidate,14 percent of Iowans would choose Biden. If he chooses not to enter the race, the poll shows his supporters splitting roughly evenly between Clinton and Sanders. Even with Biden not in the running, Clinton fails to garner an absolute majority, according to the research.

The other high-profile declared candidates in the race — Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb, and Lincoln Chaffee — all poll in the low single digits. Those numbers put them well under a so-called viability threshold, usually set at 15 percent. If attendees at individual Democratic caucus sites initially side with a candidate who falls below the viability threshold, those backers are required to regroup with a candidate still in the hunt or remain uncommitted.