It doesn’t seem that anyone believes that the 2017 Cincinnati Reds can be true contenders. Not even for a wild card spot. I tend to share that belief. The 2017 season seems more geared towards the young roster taking a step forward. It also seems more about figuring out what the roles are for some of the players.

However, as I sat here at midnight on Wednesday, I began wondering, what exactly would have to happen for the Cincinnati Reds to be true contenders? What would the team look like, if things went right for them at almost every turn? Let’s take a look and see.

The Starting Eight

Catcher | Devin Mesoraco and Tucker Barnhart

If the Reds have things go they way they would like, it would include 120 games for Devin Mesoraco and 42 for Tucker Barnhart. That’s probably not likely given the health of Mesoraco the last two years, but let’s say it’s 110 and 52 for the Mesoraco/Barnhart split. In a best case scenario, let’s say that Mesoraco repeats his 2014 All-Star season (scaled to 110 games) and Barnhart takes a small step forward at the plate, posting a .260/.330/.391 line. Couple that with Mesoraco’s .273/.359/.534 and you’re looking at a big time contribution from the catchers position.

First Base | Joey Votto

Over the last two seasons Joey Votto has hit .320/.447/.546 and he’s played nearly every game. Let’s just go with that. Of course, that’s not a best case scenario, given that he hit an insane .408/.490/.668 in the second half of 2016.

Second Base | Brandon Phillips and Dilson Herrera

We are going to play this as the likely scenario, but with a best case for the two players. Let’s say that Brandon Phillips plays the first half at the same rate he played 2016 at – good for a .736 OPS, then he gets moved in early July. That opens the door for Dilson Herrera in the second half, where he goes out and carries forward his 2016 Triple-A OPS of .791. That may not be the best case scenario, exactly, but it’s a good one and I’m going with it.

Shortstop | Jose Peraza

If we are going to continue down the best case scenario path, but also trying to remain relatively realistic, the Reds are able to move Zack Cozart before the start of the season and hand the job over to Jose Peraza. In his best case scenario, he brings with him his Triple-A walk rate from 2016. He also couples that with his hitting skills he showed at the big league level. We will bump down his BABIP some, but still give him a .301/.355/.405 line for the season. We will also add in some good base running value for the entire season.

Third Base | Eugenio Suarez

Let’s say that the second half version of Eugenio Suarez is the guy we see for all of 2017 and he picks up a tad bit of power along the way (as most guys his age tend to do). That would give him a line of .258/.335/.451 on the year.

Corner Outfield | Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker

The realistic expectation, I’d imagine, is that these three guys all find time in the corners in 2017. How this all works out is a big question mark, but let’s play out a reasonable scenario. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler begin the year as the corner outfielders. Both perform much like they did in the second half of 2016. Let’s also say that Jesse Winker does enough in Louisville to warrant a call up at mid-season (actual midseason, not the 102 game mark All-Star break mid-season). Let’s then say that Jesse Winker plays in 75 games the rest of the way, his power is back and he hits .286/.369/.468 (if you are wondering why the numbers aren’t round – it’s because I’m actually going through and inputting an entire statistical line for everyone to spit out AVG/OBP/SLG). That would put Duvall at .242/.327/.441 and Schebler at .271/.332/.442. That’s obviously not best case for either guy, as we saw Duvall go off in the 1st half and sustaining that over an entire season would be best case. For Schebler, we would also be looking at something more like .280/.340/.500 or maybe even more power output if he’s able to show some of the things he did in the minors. For this purpose though, there’s just so many question marks that I’m sticking with the original parts.

Center Field | Billy Hamilton

This is where things get interesting. We saw a different Billy Hamilton in 2016, particularly in the second half of the season. Let’s say that he takes another step forward from second half by slightly improving his walk and strikeout rates. That would lead to a .279/.365/.375 line for Hamilton in 2017 thanks to an 11.5% walk rate (10.7 in the second half of 2016) and an 18% strikeout rate (19.8% in the second half of 2016). Oh, and add a ton of base running value for him.

The Bench

Rather than break down who will be here, I’m just going to give the Reds bench an “average” line for a typical bench. Let’s call that a .230/.300/.350 and give them 800 total plate appearances.

The Pitchers

They can’t hit. We will just give them the same line as they had last year.

So, let’s take a look at what all of that would give the Cincinnati Reds in terms of runs created (using the OBP*SLG*AB formula – which, just to test it out, I ran it against the 2016 Chicago Cubs – this formula spit out 809 runs created for them. Their actual runs scored? 808. It’s not THAT accurate with all teams, but, it’s pretty close).

Position AVG OBP SLG RC AB Catcher .274 .362 .532 75 390 Catcher .260 .330 .391 22 169 First Base .320 .447 .546 138 565 Second Base .291 .320 .416 42 316 Second Base .274 .335 .456 55 358 Shortstop .301 .355 .405 81 565 Third Base .257 .335 .451 83 548 Corner OF .286 .369 .468 44 252 Corner OF .271 .332 .442 57 387 Corner OF .242 .327 .441 57 392 Center Field .279 .365 .375 76 555 Pitchers .079 .120 .108 4 281 Bench .230 .300 .350 74 705 Total 806 5483

How does it look?

That looks pretty good. It’s pretty much in line with what the Chicago Cubs did in 2016. Let’s note that this doesn’t include any base running value added in. The Reds have two of the fastest guys around in Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza. So, you may be able to add a few runs created to their totals.

Of course, this is also a scenario that’s mostly best-realistic-case with no injuries to anyone. That’s incredibly unlikely. But, it certainly made for a fun little exercise that took two hours to cook up. The disappointing part is that we’ve got to play “best case realistic scenario with absolutely no injuries” to basically match the 2016 Cubs offense, who, were in no way best case scenario (Jason Heyward was atrocious, they didn’t get anything from Kyle Schwarber).

Tomorrow I will run the same exercise for the pitchers, which will then give us both a runs scored and runs allowed total. With those numbers we can get a good idea of what their record could be in a “best case scenario”.