When this season's draw was released in late October, I did my annual draw analysis, a large factor in which is the five teams each club has to face twice in their 22 games. We allocated points for each opponent in reverse ladder order and added them up, the lower the score the better draw. A revised look at the AFL fixture means the Bulldogs were dealt a much better hand ... but have they failed to take advantage? Credit:Getty Images That, of course, however, couldn't predict which teams would rise or fall, making what seemed at the time a handy or difficult draw in fact quite the reverse. And more than ever, that's certainly the case in 2017. With so many finals contenders so tightly packed on the ladder, we've redone our draw calculations to see just which teams in practice might have got an extra leg up thanks to their schedule, and for whom the task might actually have been a lot harder than it was supposed to be. The latter certainly hasn't been the case for the Western Bulldogs which makes their patchy form and 6-5 win-loss record perhaps even more worrying than it already appears after Thursday night's miserable performance in Sydney.

On the "play twice" ladder, the Dogs, when the fixture was released, were dealt the equal third-hardest task of any team. Based on current ladder positions (to the end of round 11 with winning percentage applied), their draw has in fact become the equal second-best, behind only Gold Coast. Sydney and North Melbourne, two of the five teams the Bulldogs play twice, both occupy positions a lot lower than last season. But it's 1-1 against the Swans, and the Dogs only just got over the line against the Roos in round four. They play them again in a fortnight. Right now, it's at best a 50-50 call. The Swans themselves have also ended up with a better draw in practice than they had in theory. Not that it seems to have done them much good. As we saw on Thursday night, their best is still very potent. But it's being delivered erratically. Much of their better rating now is due to the demise of Hawthorn, one of their opponents they play twice. But Sydney managed to lose to the Hawks two weeks back, a defeat which might in the finish prove very costly indeed.

Speaking of erratic, it's Gold Coast which on the revised numbers ended up with the best play twice deal this season, Hawthorn and North Melbourne two of the five sides the Suns meet again, the Hawks on Saturday. But a better "one to watch" candidate for the run home might actually be North Melbourne. On the numbers, the Roos have had a fractionally tougher fixture than it seemed last October. But North Melbourne's numbers are a little deceptive in 2017. A ladder position of 14th at 4-7 has very little to recommend it in terms of late charges at September. But three losses by a total of nine points, all three of which North at one stage led by five goals, prove how fine a line that is. More importantly, the Roos play just three current top eight teams in their final 11 games, and none in the last six. A little more consistency and steadiness in the tight finish and, despite that two-game gap to the top eight, North Melbourne could still be a September player. So who's had it tougher? The revised play twice ladder shows West Coast has ended up with the hardest road, not great news given the Eagles' struggles already this season. Their next month after this weekend's bye might well determine their finals fate, too, with four of their next five games against top eight teams.

Loading Not that their local rival is looking any more secure, Fremantle grimly hanging on to eighth spot. The Dockers, too, have ended up with a tougher deal, though face a marginally less challenging run home than the Eagles. Saturday's road trip to the Gabba could ended up pivotal to their season. And marginal is the operative word here. It's hard to remember such a moveable feast as is the 2017 AFL season. Fixturing doesn't generally play a key role in determining how a team's 22-game football year pans out. But this may well be one of those exceptions to the rule.



