It’s a battle of the winter forecasts.

In one corner, from the Weather Network, we have Chris Scott, chief meteorologist, predicting that Toronto will be pounded by plenty of storms.

In the other, from Environment Canada, is Dave Phillips, senior climatologist, who says winter won’t pack as much of a punch as Scott believes.

Which winter prediction will be left standing when the final bell rings?

Earlier this week, Scott said the message to Toronto from his forecast team, led by Dr. Doug Gillham, was to “buckle up, because it looks like a stormy winter.”

He pointed out that this year’s La Nina weather system bears a striking resemblance to that of 2007-2008, when Toronto had its snowiest winter in 70 years, dumping 194 centimetres on the city. Toronto sees an average of 115 cm in the winter.

“History tells us that when we have cooler waters off the coast of South America, that’s La Nina, and those winters tend to be classic Canadian winters,” he said.

Phillips’s response was that temperatures only have to be half a degree or colder than average for three months to classify as La Nina and that this one is “borderline. It’s weak.”

“The point is this: there are La Ninas, and then there are La Ninas.”

Last year, Phillips said, we went into the winter under a similar weather system, and it faded away to give us a “balmy winter,” which ended up being the seventh warmest since 1947.

Both concluded that there would likely be patches of wilder weather in the Toronto area, interrupted by mild spots throughout the season.

“You might get two out of three months where you think, ‘wow, that was a wild winter,’ and then one month where the winter goes away,” Scott said.

Where the two differ is on the overall severity.

“This will be a winter that’s more on than off,” Scott said, with lots of snow for December in the eastern half of Canada.

You should probably "buckle up" this winter, one meteorologist says. (The Canadian Press)

Phillips believes that “we could see more snow in the early part of winter,” but didn’t commit to a prediction of storms after that.

“It may feel or look more like winter than last year,” Phillips said, because of the “staying power” of the snow.

“I think it may be colder than last year, but it’s still going to be above normal.”

The disparity between the forecasts doesn’t mean the science is doomed.

“When two different weather providers or meteorologists look at this information, it’s often conflicting. So when you’re dealing with all of that differing information and what it’s saying, you get different results,” Scott said, pointing out that they do predict similar temperatures, even if his team has a stronger stance on potential storms.

“David is such an amazing guy, he’s done so much for the communication of weather and climate in Canada. We’re colleagues and I have the utmost respect for him. The relationship that the Weather Network has with Environment Canada is a close, working relationship.”

Phillips echoed his feelings: “I have the highest regard for Chris and the Weather Network, and different models say different things.”

The full Environment Canada outlook for winter doesn’t arrive until Dec. 1, meaning Phillips’ forecast was going off of the preliminary data available to him.

Both agree that seasonal forecasts are always going to be less exact, with Scott and Phillips calling them a “sketch” and “like throwing a dart on a dartboard” respectively.

“I wouldn’t go to the bank on it,” Phillips said. “I’d go to a wine and cheese party and tell people what we think the winter’s going to be, but I wouldn’t tell people to postpone their holidays or make economic decisions on the (winter) forecast.”

Scott stands by his team’s predictions.

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“Not the worst ever, but a winter that’s going to deliver.”

Tale of the tape

A quick look at the careers of Chris Scott and Dave Phillips:

DAVE PHILLIPS

Experience: 50 years with Environment Canada

Proudest prediction: “Last year I forecasted a white Christmas, the groundhog would see his shadow, and March would come in like a lion and go out like a lamb. And I was right on.”

Worst prediction: “I never predicted we’d have summer in fall (for this past year). Those five days above 30 C, I wouldn’t have forecasted that in 50 years of forecasting. It was a headshaker.”

Favourite type of storm: “Any storm where I’m not in it. As long as I don’t have to drive in it, walk in it — I can just enjoy it from indoors.”

Go-to buzzword or saying: “If you don’t like the weather out your front door, look out your back door.”

First thing they’d say if they saw a tornado on the horizon: “‘I knew it!’ And probably it would be too late. Probably if I knew it, I should’ve been in a safer place.”

CHRIS SCOTT

Experience: 17 years with the Weather Network

Proudest prediction: The 2013 ice storm in southern Ontario and Toronto. “That was one where five days in advance we were really on top of the scenario and before anyone else called it an ‘ice storm,’ we called it.”

Worst prediction: He went to Canada’s Wonderland with his future wife and some friends, assuring them that the chance of rain was very low. “All of a sudden the skies get dark and it just pours. I look at the radar and there is one lone storm in the entire GTA, in the entire province, and it’s sitting right over Canada’s Wonderland.”

Favourite type of storm: “Anything that boils and bubbles in the atmosphere. That might be thunderstorms or snow squalls — I’m not a fan of slow-moving, boring weather.”

Go-to buzzword or saying: “It’s a non-linear, chaotic system.”

First thing they’d say if they saw a tornado on the horizon: “Uh, wow.” (After he warned people, his next concern would be his phone: “I honestly have nightmares where I see tornadoes and I do not have enough space and I can’t take a video. Yes, that’s who I am.”)