Moody’s Investors Service thinks it’s likely that the U.S. will sanction Russia’s sovereign debt. But it might just upgrade the country to investment grade anyway.

“Those sanctions are likely to come because they would target what the administration has in mind: trying to impose pain on Russia,” Moody’s analyst Kristin Lindow said in an interview in Moscow. At the same time, Russia’s low borrowing requirements make it “resilient,” she said.

Moody’s, which rates Russia one notch below investment grade, is currently the most downbeat of the three major ratings agencies after S&P Global Ratings upgraded earlier this year. Lindow and her colleagues put the country on positive outlook in January, meaning they have to make a decision on a possible promotion before the middle of next year.

It’s a tricky call to make because there’s so much uncertainty around U.S. plans to punish the Kremlin for alleged election interference. A proposed ban on Americans buying new Russian sovereign debt appears to be gaining traction in Washington after it appeared on at least two bills that have bilateral support in Congress.