'Very close'

"If the GFG Alliance Projects go ahead then no matter which way you measure the target we're already set to go very close to 75 per cent renewables on a business as usual basis," Tristan Edis, director of Green Energy Markets, said.

Without the Whyalla projects renewable energy is expected to supply 66 per cent of the power consumed by SA in 2025, the report – funded by advocacy group GetUp! – finds. That would leave another 9 per cent to be added.

Mr Edis said most of the heavy lifting here has been done by the federal RET. "So it looks like SA Labor are up to their old tricks of claiming credit for something they have little to do with – other than the notable exception of the solar thermal project."

US group Solar Reserve's $650 million concentrating solar thermal plant at Port Augusta was backed by a long-term deal to supply the state government at $78/MWh.

SA's bulging clean energy pipeline AFR

The target under the RET stops rising after 2020, although the target must be met through to 2030 when the RET expires altogether.

Cutting edge of world power systems


The policy that Mr Frydenberg wants to take its place – the National Energy Guarantee – explicitly allows for states and territories to have a more ambitious target for renewable energy and counts clean energy built under state schemes towards the national emissions reduction goals. However, jurisdictions with higher renewables shares would have to put in place more dispatchable capacity – capacity that can be switched on and off on demand – adding to the cost of the energy.

Kobad Bhavnagri, head of Australia for Bloomberg New Energy Finance, agreed there are more than enough projects in the pipeline for SA to achieve 75 per cent renewable energy by 2025 but said running a stable grid at that level of penetration was a challenging that would place SA at the cutting edge of global power grids.

"Putting shovels in the ground and building wind and solar projects is not the real challenge; running an electricity grid with 75 per cent renewables is. It is a bold and futuristic ambition, which will require great innovation and ingenuity to deliver. It places South Australia unmistakably at the cutting edge of world power systems and the energy transition."

Huge solar power and storage projects proposed by Sanjeev Gupta's GFG Alliance at the Whyalla Steelworks it bought last year will be key to SA reaching 75 per cent renewable energy by 2025 Bloomberg

SA's renewable energy share will reach 74 per cent of electricity consumption by 2025 without further government action if the GFG Alliance solar projects at Whyalla go ahead in their entirety Green Energy Markets