The Liberals have opened up a slightly larger lead in the federal election race thanks to a tumbling NDP, who have slipped to fourth nationally, the most recent election poll conducted by Mainstreet Research for iPolitics suggests.

In a phone survey of 1,876 Canadians conducted from Sept. 6-8, 37.5 per cent of decided and leaning voters said they would vote for the Liberals if the election were held today, which is a three percentage point bump for the party since one month ago. The Conservatives were the preferred pick for 34 per cent of decided and leaning voters, which is almost identical to where they polled in the race a month ago.

The NDP, meanwhile, fell behind the Greens, with only 8.4 per cent of decided and leaning voters saying they would vote for the party that currently controls the third-most seats in the House of Commons. Elizabeth May’s Green Party was the choice of 10.8 per cent of respondents, which represents a slight dip for the party since last month’s polls.

Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party polled in fifth place nationally, with 4.6 per cent of support, while the Bloc Quebecois, who only run candidates in Quebec, drew 3.6 per cent of national support.

“If the election were held today, the Liberals would comfortably win a majority,” Mainstreet Research President and CEO Quito Maggi said.

Poll respondents also told Mainstreet what gender they were and how old they were, hinting to which demographics will be most likely to vote for which parties in the election on Oct. 21.

Of decided and leaning voters, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals were most popular among women, gathering the support of 41.2 per cent of all women in Canada. Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives were supported by 29.4 per cent of women, followed by the Greens with the support of 12.7 per cent of women, then Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, who 9.1 per cent of leaning and decided female voters said they support.

Men were most likely to support the Conservatives, with 38.7 per cent saying they planned to vote for the Tories. The Liberals drew support from 33.7 per cent of voters who had made up their mind, with no other party drawing support from more than 10 per cent of men in Canada who were decided or leaning with how they intend to vote.

The Liberals were most popular amongst voters aged 35 to 49, of whom 39.3 per cent intended on voting for the Grits. The only age group of voters who the Conservatives – or any party – overtook the Liberals in popularity of was Canadians aged 50 to 64, of whom 36.4 per cent of who had decided on or were intending to vote for a party chose the Conservatives.

Of the four age groups tested in the poll (it also grouped people age 18 to 34 and age 65 and over) the Greens (12.7 per cent), NDP (10.7 per cent) and People’s Party (7.3 per cent), were each found to be most popular amongst leaning and decided voters of the youngest age group. The Bloc Quebecois received highest percentage (4.9) of support amongst voters in the oldest age group.

The survey also revealed pronounced differences between voters’ preferences in Western Canada versus voters in the rest of the country.

PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: Liberal lead grows in Ontario, Quebec, while Tories up in B.C.: Mainstreet poll

The margin of error for the national survey was plus or minus 2.26 percentage points.

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