QUEEN'S PARK -- A predicted surge in COVID-19 patients, which the Ontario government feared would overwhelm the provincial health care system, has yet to materialize—suggesting the province-wide social distancing efforts might be paying off.

According to the province’s COVID-19 projections, Ontario hospitals should have seen a surge of patients on the week of April 6, which would have placed an unprecedented strain on the available number of critical care beds.

The projections, which have been guiding the decisions made by Premier Doug Ford, sent the ministry of health racing to free up hospital beds by cancelling or deferring elective surgeries, shifting patients within hospitals, and allowing health systems to rent hotel rooms to treat patients who don’t require acute care.

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist with the University Health Network, says that while emergency rooms have been seeing a steady increase of COVID-19 patients, hospitals “have not received this massive influx.”

“We definitely have capacity to care for them with the current availability of beds and resources,” Bogoch said. “ We have capacity to care for a greater number of patients.”

Data compiled by Critical Care Services Ontario and analyzed by CTV News Toronto shows the current number of COVID-19 cases is roughly 40 per cent lower than what the province had forecast.

On April 11, for example, there were 531 confirmed and suspected COVID-19 patients in Ontario hospitals. The province projected there would be 936.

Bogoch stresses, however, that the impact is varied across the province. While some hospitals are experiencing a calm before the storm, others are navigating through rougher waters.

“There are hospitals that are rather busy, there are some individual intensive care units that are getting full – but across the city, province and country, generally, we’re doing well,” Bogoch said.

But while hospitals are being spared from the COVID-19 surge, Ontario’s long term care and retirement homes are bearing the brunt of the pandemic with 89 residences currently battling an outbreak.

As of April 12, 741 residents had tested positive for COVID-19, with another 119 residents losing their lives to the virus.

Health Minister Christine Elliott says the province is now examining whether elderly residents should be moved to “safer places,” including hospitals and retirement homes.

Elliott said patients would need to be re-tested and socially isolated if they are moved, but cautioned that the province wouldn’t want to overburden a hospital’s capacity to treat others as well.

“While [ICU admissions] have been going down over the last four days … we can’t sit back and be complacent about this,” Elliott said. “There are many more things that could happen and we need to make sure that we continue to have the available hospital space.”

Too early to lift restrictions, Ford says

While early indicators point to Ontario possibly flattening the curve of new cases, Ford said he needs to see more modelling data before making any decisions about easing social distancing rules.

Ford said he wants to be “cautious” and “responsible” about lifting restrictions, because he want to avoid instilling a false sense of security.

“Even when the economy turns on a little bit there’s still going to be people [with] COVID-19 and there’s still going to be deaths,” Ford said.

“Even if we turn it on a trickle, there’s going to be risk.”

Bogoch believes that while the measures the provincial government has put in place seem to be having the desired effect, it would be too early to relax the restrictions.

“We still have to maintain our adherence to these public health measures so that we can really allow the healthcare system to care for these patients,” Bogoch said.

“By no means is it time for us to get complacent.”