As the number of undefeated teams has dwindled to five and the college football playoff committee announcing their first rankings after next week, I think it is time to talk about who still has a chance to make the playoff. Also before this gets critiqued, I am aware that these percentages likely do not make mathematical sense, I just can not be bothered to fix it.

Alabama

We are eight games into the season, and we have yet to see Tua Tagovailoa play in the fourth quarter of a game. That fact shows the sheer dominance Alabama has had against everyone they have played this season. Alabama sits at 8-0, and their closest game was a 22 point win over Texas A&M. Alabama dismantled Tennessee 58-21 on Saturday, and it did not look like they even played that well. Tua threw for 306 yards in just 29 attempts, and Jaylen Waddle has 117 receiving yards. Alabama was up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter. Their next game at LSU, will be a test, but other than that, they really do not have any other games that should pose a challenge for them until the SEC Championship. If Alabama wins the SEC Championship, I find it very unlikely they miss out on the playoff. Alabama making the playoff is a near guarantee, as I do not see how they finish out their schedule with more than maybe one loss.

Chances of making the playoff: 95%

Injury is obviously a concern, but I think that is the only way they miss out. LSU will be a challenge, but I think Alabama wins that game without breaking too much of a sweat.

LSU

LSU’s success has definitely been a surprise this season. With many people calling for Ed Orgeron to be fired, and having to find a replacement at running back, it seemed like LSU was destined for 7-8 wins. After defeating Mississippi State on Saturday, LSU sits at 7-1 with four wins over teams who were ranked at the time they played. LSU’s defense has become a complete juggernaut evidenced by the fact that they give up just 15 points per game. Their secondary has become something opposing offenses should fear as they had four interceptions on Saturday. Grant Delpit has emerged as an elite safety as he had 10 tackles, a sack, and two interceptions against Mississippi State. Cornerback Greedy Williams practically blocks off an entire side of the field with his ability in coverage. While their offense is not otherworldly, they can get the job done, and will capitalize when they are given good field position. They also have a very reliable kicker in Cole Tracy (did you know he used to play at a D2 school in Massachusetts where kicked in front of just 1,200 people because ESPN announcers do and they love talking about it) who has made 21 field goals already this season. What is concerning is LSU’s upcoming schedule. With the ejection of linebacker Devin White for targeting in the fourth quarter on Saturday, he will be forced to miss the first half against Alabama due to suspension unless they can overturn the call (it was a horrible call and the fact that he has to miss half of their most important game of the season is ridiculous). White is one of the best players on LSU’s team and the leader of their defense. Playing without him, even if it is just for a half, will be devastating. Between that, finishing the season at Texas A&M, and a rematch against Florida or Georgia if they make the SEC Championship, I find their playoff chances to be pretty unlikely.

Chances of making the playoff: 20%

They do have a shot against Alabama, but their remaining schedule is a tough go that they will have to survive undefeated. I just can not see that happening.

Georgia

Georgia had this week off after taking a pretty bad loss to LSU a week ago. Georgia was just completely outclassed by LSU as they lost 36-16. Despite this loss, the Bulldogs have an immense amount of talent and I believe they will bounce back. What quantifies bouncing back is the bigger question. While they are the better team in each remaining game on their schedule, they still have to play Florida, and then play at Kentucky. They also have to play Auburn, who may not be having the best year, but still has talent and beat Georgia last year in the regular season. Finishing the regular season without another loss will definitely be difficult. I also worry about questions at the quarterback position hurting this team. With a poor performance on Saturday and a five star freshman sitting behind him, Jake Fromm will be under tremendous pressure for the remainder of the season, especially since Alabama, Notre Dame, and even Clemson to an extent have recently had success switching to a younger backup quarterback. Backup Justin Fields has also looked solid in his limited reps. Georgia has talent on defense and in the backfield, and I think they can compete with anybody. If they make it that far, do not be surprised if they upset Alabama in the SEC Championship.

Chances of making the playoff: 30%

I think Georgia can hang with and beat anybody in the country. They just have a reputation of choking in big games and will likely have to go through Alabama.

Florida

The season defining game for Florida awaits next week. Florida is 6-1 with an impressive win over LSU under their belt. Their lone loss to Kentucky looks much more acceptable than it did at the time. Their upcoming game against Georgia will determine if Florida is an elite team, or just a really good one. Like many teams in the SEC, Florida is built on a stout defense and solid rushing attack. Defensive end Jachai Polite dominated against LSU, and is emerging as an elite defensive lineman. On offense, Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett both ran for over 100 yards in their last game. While he may not be perfect, quarterback Feleipe Franks has improved this season, and can be relied upon more throwing the ball. Besides Georgia, they also have to play Missouri and South Carolina, who will be challenges, but likely wins.

Chances of making the playoff: 10%

Florida is a very good team, but they are not quite ready to contend for a playoff spot, especially in a stacked SEC. Gators fans should still be happy with their progress, and it is likely that Florida finds themselves playing in an NY6 bowl game.

Kentucky

So I kind of have to include Kentucky because it is technically possible for them to make the playoff since they have just one loss. Kentucky fits the model that most good SEC teams fit, and that is having a very good defense, and an offense defined by the running game. What makes this Kentucky team go from good to great is that they have an elite defensive end in Josh Allen (his strip sack against Vanderbilt on Saturday was very clutch) who is always capable of making a play. Allen has two sacks in Kentucky’s win against Vanderbilt on Saturday. Linebacker Kash Daniel is also an impactful player on defense as he added 10 tackles (he also said he broke his hand and does not plan to miss a single play which is awesome but also slightly stupid). They also have an elite running back in Benny Snell. Snell is a workhorse back who averages 21 carries per game, but also 127 yards per game. Snell can will their offense to yards behind a solid offensive line, and can always be relied upon to make a play. As a matter of fact, it is likely Kentucky would be undefeated right now if they gave Snell the ball more against Texas A&M. Kentucky has seemed to master that art of winning ugly. They just gash their opponents with running the ball and having a solid defense. Quarterback Terry Wilson has his fair share of struggles in the passing game, but has emerged as a great running threat as well. Unfortunately, Kentucky still has to play Georgia, who has a much more talented roster than the Wildcats. Kentucky seems to have found the benefits of being a very good team with a pretty easy schedule.

Chances of making the playoff: 1%

They need to win out, and I just do not see it happening. At least Kentucky fans have basketball to look forward to.

Michigan

After Ohio State lost on Saturday, (more on that later) Michigan is now in the drivers seat in the Big 10. Michigan has looked tremendously better since their opening loss to Notre Dame. Quarterback Shea Patterson has improved from a shaky start as he has adjusted well into their offense. Karan Higdon is stepping up as one of the best running backs in the country after putting 144 yards on the ground. Their defense looked outstanding on Saturday (I know Michigan State’s offense is bad but Michigan looked unbelievable on defense) and that was without their most talented player, defensive lineman Rashan Gary who was out due to injury. Michigan has held the quarterbacks of the last two teams they have played to a 28% completion percentage and just 3.8 yards per pass attempt. While neither quarterback was that great, those numbers are pretty eye popping. A trip to Penn State awaits the Wolverines in two weeks. That game will be tough, but it is a game Michigan should win, especially with Penn State’s recent form. The big game for Michigan’s playoff hopes and Jim Harbaugh’s reputation as a coach is the game at Ohio State to end the regular season. This game will almost certainly determine the win of the Big 10 East division, and will definitely eliminate one of the teams from playoff contention if they both make it to the game with one loss. I think Michigan has a good chance in that game if their offense keeps improving.

Chances of making the playoff: 50%

I expect Michigan to be favored in every remaining game (probably not Ohio State but I think they are the better team) on their schedule. The bad thing is that teams tend to drop games they should win. I think they have the best chances of any team in the Big 10.

Ohio State

The chances Ohio State has of making the playoff just went from very good, to on life support after their 49-20 loss against a 4-3 Purdue team. Ohio State had their one game per season where they completely come out flat, and it will likely haunt them. They did not have a good day in terms of offensive play calling. They have possibly the best running back duo in the country, yet their quarterback threw the ball 73 times. The defense, that has been lacking since Nick Bosa left, was finally exposed by Purdue. If Ohio State wants to make the playoff, they need to win out and do it convincingly. This loss will be very hard to erase from the minds of the playoff committee. The reason I still have them listed as a possibility is that it is the one loss on their record, and they nearly made the playoff last year with two losses and one that was a 30 point blowout against a mediocre team (then again anyone who claimed they should have been in the playoff last year is just flat out wrong). The remainder of their schedule is pretty workable except for Michigan. They will need to come into that game with a very good offensive game plan if they want to win.

Chances of making the playoff: 25%

This loss was crushing but they can still make it if they win out. Also the playoff committee is not afraid of controversially putting Ohio State in the playoff (like when they should have put Baylor in the playoff in 2014).

Iowa

So I just completely forgot the fact that Iowa sits at 6-1 but they very much do after a victory over Maryland on Saturday. After Nate Stanley threw six touchdowns a week ago, Iowa returned to their normal self offensively as they were led by running back Ivory Kelly-Martin (awesome name). Nate Stanley made the throws he needed to (the catch by Brandon Smith on their only offensive touchdown was insane). Iowa dominated time of possession and forced Maryland into playing Iowa’s style of football. This is all what Iowa does best under coach Kirk Ferentz. Iowa plays a downtrodden but good Penn State next week, but their schedule is not very good after that. The one challenge is that since they lost to Wisconsin earlier this season, they need to win out, and have Wisconsin drop another game in order to make the Big 10 Championship. If they want to make the playoff, they need to make the Big 10 Championship. They also would have to beat either Michigan or Ohio State in that game. Iowa has beaten both of those team in their most recent meetings, but the game will be a challenge.

Chances of making the playoff: 10%

I have irrational confidence in Iowa. I think their style of play can lead them to wins over more talented teams. I just think there is little chance they go through the rest of the season without a loss.

Oklahoma

While they did allow 27 points against TCU, Oklahoma’s defense looks improved since they got rid of Mike Stoops. While their defense is not amazing, it just needs to be pretty good since their offense is so explosive. Backup running back Kennedy Brooks had 168 yards on the ground to go with 110 for Trey Sermon. It also helps that Kyler Murray is also the best quarterback in the country (yes I fully believe that). If their defense can show some improvement, they will be a force. The rest of their schedule is passable, except for their regular season finale at West Virginia. They will also either have to play West Virginia or rematch with Texas in the Big 12 Championship.

Chances of making the playoff: 30%

I think that they have the talent, but their loss to Texas will just come back to haunt them.

Texas

Texas has a bye last week, which was needed as quarterback Sam Ehlinger is rehabbing from injury. Texas is 6-1 and has three wins over teams that were ranked at the time. Throughout this season, Texas has improved and they have seen many players step up this season. True freshman defensive back Caden Sterns who has four interceptions on the season, has become a very bright young star for the defense. Receivers Collin Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey are nearly impossible to guard on slant routes. Sam Ehlinger has come into his own as a quarterback and has learned minimized the stupid throws he made last year. This team has certainly exceeded my expectations. What still concerns me is the fact that Texas always plays down to the level of their competition. They did this against Maryland and lost. They also did it against Tulsa, Kansas State, and Baylor and were lucky to come out with wins. This issue makes it nearly impossible for me to write off games as wins for Texas (I legitimately am worried about them losing to Kansas as I know I would not be able to take the mockery). They still have to play West Virginia, but luckily it is at home and also will have to play either Oklahoma or West Virginia again if the make the Big 12 Championship.

Chances of making the playoff: 40%

This is probably slightly biased, but I think they have the best chance of any Big 12 team. They just need to win out, which is difficult, but doable.

West Virginia

Making the playoffs is a bit of a long shot for West Virginia, but I do not want to fully doubt a quarterback as good as Will Grier. Grier has had poor performances in his last two games, but his talent is undeniable. David Sills and Gary Jennings are the go to guys that help make up a great group of receivers. This team has plenty of offensive talent, but what they have on offense is countered by what they lack on defense. In their last three games, none of which were against teams that were very good, they have given up 28 points per game. That number will only increase when they play more quality offenses. They also have to play Texas and Oklahoma, as well as rematching one of them in the Big 12 Championship if they make it that far. Their schedule is very rough.

Chances of making the playoff: 10%

This team has talent, but their upcoming schedule is just too daunting.

Clemson

After a resounding win against North Carolina State on Saturday, Clemson has erased most of the concerns people had about this team. Clemson sits at 7-0 and looks to have improved over the course of the season. Freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence had his best game so far this season with 309 passing yards. 119 of which were to star receiver Tee Higgins, who gave a flash of what he was hyped up to be in their game on Saturday. Clemson was able to capitalize on North Carolina State’s three turnovers. Clemson had 10 tackles for loss on defense, and held North Carolina State to just two third down conversions in twelve attempts. They also made Ryan Finley, a very good quarterback, look bad, which is a mark of a very good defense. With the ACC having a down year, Clemson does not have a very tough schedule left. It is definitely likely they finish the regular season undefeated.

Chances of making the playoff: 90% Clemson has an easy road ahead in a weak conference. Making the playoff should not be a challenge for the Tigers.

I did not include North Carolina State in the list of teams with a chance. Even though they have just one loss, there is just no way they make the playoff.

Washington State

The playoff hopes of the Pac 12 rest on the shoulders of Washington State is a statement I did not expect to say but here we are. College GameDay in Pullman was awesome, as was seeing the atmosphere at the game. Those fans were clearly passionate about their team, and seeing them win with the spotlight shining on them was a very cool moment. Their offense is hard to stop, as they have many threats. Gardner Minshew is very good at spreading the ball around, and had a very good game against Oregon (it is pretty surprising that Washington State has won four in a row against Oregon). At running back, James Williams (his run for the opening touchdown of the game was probably the best run I have seen all year) and Max Borghi can get the hard yard and fill their roles very well. Their defense has outperformed expectations after they lost a very good defensive coordinator and many talented players. Overall, this is a very good team. With all that said, I can pretty confidently say their chances of making the playoff are slim to none. They still have to play at Stanford and Colorado before finishing off the season at home for the Apple Cup against Washington. All of the games will be tough wins, as will the Pac 12 Championship If they make it there. I think a Rose Bowl berth is definitely possible, but the playoff is probably just too much to ask.

Chances of making the playoff: 5%

Washington State has already met and surpassed most people’s expectations for this season. I think a playoff berth is a bit too far of a stretch.

Notre Dame

Notre Dame is 7-0 with a win over Michigan, and convincing wins over Stanford and Virginia Tech. At this point in the season, Notre Dame is probably the most battle tested team in the country (the one team with an argument is LSU). Since making the switch to Ian Book at quarterback, Notre Dame has looked rejuvenated and found another gear. Their offense is hard to stop (I guess unless they play against Pittsburgh). The running game has also improved since Dexter Williams returned from suspension (I guess also unless they play against Pittsburgh). This team looks elite, and I still feel like there is another level that have not quite reached. Luckily for Notre Dame, they have already gone through the tough part of their schedule.

Chances of making the playoff: 90%

Notre Dame has to just not lose more than one game against five teams that are not very good. This is easily doable, and I think they will go undefeated which will only help their seeding.

UCF

At 7-0, UCF has won 20 straight games. This team has also shown that they are not just a team who was reliant upon a coach as Josh Heupel. In their last game on Saturday, they beat down on East Carolina without standout quarterback McKenzie Milton. UCF has won six of their seven games by at least twenty points. The bad thing for UCF is that their strength of schedule is terrible. Their strength of schedule ranks 124 out of 130 FBS teams and they have yet to play a team who currently has a winning record. While they were hurt by having their game against North Carolina cancelled due to a hurricane, North Carolina is not a very good team either. While it may be difficult to find them, UCF needs to try and schedule tougher out of conference opponents in the future, or win the games on their schedule convincingly. It may be unfair, but the fact that they only beat Memphis by one point is a bad thing. With such a weak schedule, they have to blow out their opponents if they want to look worth of a playoff spot. Their remaining schedule is not very tough, which can be both good and bad.

Chances of making the playoff: 10%

UCF will need to finish the season undefeated, and have a little bit of chaos happen in other conferences if they want a chance to be in the playoff. What is good news for them is it seems likely they will make a NY6 Bowl.

South Florida

While South Florida is currently 7-0, there is definitely reason for concern for their fans. Of their seven wins, four of them were by eight points or less. If this team wants to be taken seriously, they need to win by more. They also still have to play Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF who are all good teams.

Chances of making the playoff: .0001%

I highly doubt they survive both Cincinnati and UCF, or have many favors down for them with their lack of convincing wins over good teams.

Some Random Thoughts

1. Paulson Adebo is a good corner for Stanford. He shut down Arizona State’s receivers, as well as shutting down Oregon’s receivers at the end of that game. He is also just a freshman. He will be a huge impact player in the future for Stanford.

2. Clock management is something that still baffles me when teams do not do properly. Arizona State’s lack of clock management possibly cost them the game against Stanford.

3. The pregame shenanigans before the Michigan and Michigan State game was very petty and dumb, but also was very entertaining.

4. Auburn won against Ole Miss, and can rest a little bit easier, despite AJ Brown having 155 receiving yards for Ole Miss.

5. Cincinnati is no longer undefeated after they fell to Temple in overtime. Despite this loss, Cincinnati is still a very good G5 team.

6. Virginia is 5-2 after they scrapped out a 28-14 win over Duke. Virginia is quietly making noise in the ACC, and could definitely make the ACC Championship.

7. The Lane Train unfortunately came to a stop as FAU as they lost 31-7 to Marshall. It seems so long ago that people thought they had a chance against Oklahoma on opening weekend.

8. Penn State’s lack of a convincing victory over Indiana is pretty concerning. With Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin remaining on their schedule, they need to step up their play.

9. Houston quarterback D’Eriq King threw for 400 yards in a victory over Navy. King was also the leading rusher for Houston. This team may not be talented all the way around, but with King at quarterback and Ed Oliver on defense, they can never be counted out of a game.

10. Missouri hung 65 points on Memphis, ending their three game skid. Drew Lock threw for 12 yards per attempt in this victory. Tight end Albert Okwuegbunam had 159 yards receiving and three touchdowns for Missouri as well.

11. Colorado struggled against Washington without Laviska Shenault. Washington also struggled without Myles Gaskin, but they were able to get the win over Colorado.

12. Quarterback Adrian Martinez looked very good in Nebraska’s first win of the season. Martinez, a true freshman, had 276 passing yards, and 125 rushing yards in a 53-28 win over Minnesota. Nebraska also had two other people run for over 100 yards. Stanley Morgan had 163 yards receiving on the day.

13. Alan Bowman returned from a collapsed lung (I do not understand how anybody can come back in three weeks from that) for Texas Tech and had a great day throwing the ball with 408 passing yards.

14. Appalachian State is 5-1 and ranked in the top 25. They are a very good G5 team, and gave Penn State all they could handle in the season opener. 10 wins is not out of the question for the Mountaineers.

15. Army defeated Miami Ohio 31-30 in double overtime and had a very crazy ending. Miami Ohio went for two and failed after a receiver seemed to have a clear shot at the end zone. I always have respect for teams that go for two and the win as opposed to playing for the tie.

16. SMU defeated Tulane 27-23 in another exciting ending that included a long receiving touchdown with a minute left. These random G5 games certainly can have chaos ensue at any time.

17. Announcers have the most conservative play calling ideas ever. They never like any call that is even remotely gutsy. They probably subscribe to the coaching methods of Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan (as a Cowboys fan, I just needed this outlet to complain about the incompetence of Garrett and Linehan).

18. Even though they lost to LSU, Mississippi State’s defensive front is very good. I think the Bulldogs may want to consider a change in quarterback as Nick Fitzgerald was 8/24 passing with no touchdowns and four interceptions. Keytaon Thompson has looked solid in spots, and I think he might deserve a chance to play.

19. Penalizing Purdue quarterback David Blough for running on the field without his helmet after linebacker Markus Bailey’s pick six sealed a Purdue victory was a very uncool move by the ref. When they score to go up 29 against the second ranked team in the country, I think all bets should be off in terms of celebration.

20. Sitting at 7-1, Buffalo is seriously good. The Bulls are led by quarterback and pro prospect, Tyree Jackson. This team will definitely make noise in the MAC, and it is entirely possible for them to go 11-1.

21. Utah is secretly pretty good after beating USC 41-28. This team is built on good defense and running the ball with Zack Moss. It looks as though right now Utah is the favorite to win the Pac 12 South.

22. Rich Rodriguez’s son started at quarterback for Arizona against UCLA. It is a little weird that he still plays for Arizona after his dad was fired last season.

23. UAB is 6-1 after a win over North Texas. The story of this team’s instant success after resuming their football program in 2017 is awesome to see.

24. Oregon’s strength coach has quite the handlebar mustache

25. Ole Miss’s land shark mascot is interesting to say the least.

26. Fining schools for having fans rushing the field is just not American.

27. This week’s cool uniform award goes to South Florida, Duke, LSU, and Texas Tech.

28. This has little to do with college football, but the high school football team wearing uniforms from the movie The Waterboy, is awesome.

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