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When Google’s Pixel 3 is unveiled in October, it’s unlikely to generate massive queues and website-crashing levels of online hype. That kind of hysteria is still the reserve of Apple and Samsung. China’s Huawei is now third in the smartphone ranking and inching closer to the top. But Pixel? When it comes to smartphone market share, Google doesn’t even make it into the top ten, however you count.

Still, the Pixel 3 will wow pundits and punters – again. And with good reason. The two current Pixel generations are without a doubt among the very best Android devices. For the Pixel 3, the unerringly accurate rumour-mill predicts a near edge-to-edge screen, a top-notch camera and 5G support. There probably won’t be any ultra-disruptive, die-for features, but that’s simply because the smartphone revolution has turned into more of a subtle evolution.


But can the Pixel 3 finally deliver significant sales? After all, the brand’s current market share is about two per cent in both North America and Western Europe, and basically non-existent in other regions.

Even relatively unknown Asian companies like Oppo, Vivo and Itel Mobile have much larger market success. China’s Xiaomi is gaining steam, having just struck a deal with Hutchison, the parent of mobile operator Three, for distribution in Europe. Even Motorola – one of Google's previous efforts to become a mobile player, bought in 2012 for $12.5 billion and sold at a hefty loss for $2.9bn two years later to Lenovo – is ahead of Pixel in terms of sales.

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The thing is, from Google’s point of view, the sales volume of Pixel phones doesn’t really matter. Google doesn’t need its slick but pricey flagship device to compete for smartphone market share. Instead, the main idea is to show the world what Google and its Android platform are capable of. The Pixel is just a sideshow in Google’s broader strategy of pushing the capabilities of hardware using its software, which also includes Chromebooks, Google home speakers and smart displays, and Nest thermostats.

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To put it bluntly: Google doesn’t want more people to buy Google-made phones. It wants you to buy Google-made tech, and to switch to its Android platform. New Android releases such as the latest operating system update, Pie, “are first made available in Pixel devices to manage market expectations,” says Werner Goertz, a Gartner analyst. Same goes for ARCore, Google’s augmented reality software development kit. Such deeper integration with software and services is likely to appeal to power users – and present the biggest threat to the main rival, Samsung.

Google wouldn’t want to annoy its Android manufacturing friends by making new features available to the Pixel alone – so it tries to focus on exclusivity in hardware rather than software. “Google walks a very fine line when making Pixel,” says Daniel Gleeson, an analyst at Ovum. What the phone does, though, is keeping the heat on Android phone makers and make them innovate. “If Google can create superior products like the Pixel, why can't they do something similar,” says Charles King, a mobile analyst at Pund-IT. And Samsung and Huawei certainly seem to be heading in that direction.

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The Pixel is also an insurance policy, just in case any of the major Android brand might decide to ditch Google apps and features from its devices. Pixel would still showcase what Google believes to be best-in-class – and after the European Union’s ruling against Google and its anti-competitive practices in the smartphone space, it can’t be ruled out anymore that some Android brands might ditch parts of the Google toolset.


Google’s perseverance with Pixel is similar to Microsoft’s approach for its Surface line of tablets and laptops. Both Google and Microsoft very much depend on third parties to make compelling hardware that persuades customers to buy into their software ecosystems. Previously, some Windows-focused manufacturers got it badly wrong, making poor use of new features with equally poor hardware.

Microsoft was less than thrilled. To nudge its partners to try harder, the company first launched its line of Surface tablets, hoping it would show both manufacturers and consumers what could actually be achieved with the new Windows 10 operating system. “Google’s Pixel efforts are similarly visionary, but its go-to-market strategy is decidedly less ‘in your face’ than Microsoft’s,” says King.



Making a dent in the mobile world isn’t easy, though – and don’t forget that Pixel is still young compared to other brands. It takes time to build overall share and create a global network of retail partners and operators from scratch. Even Google’s own online store is selling Pixel devices in just nine countries. “Google has yet to go full in with mainstream carriers, which is the biggest hindering factor to [marketshare] growth,” says Carolina Milanesi, principal analyst at Creative Strategies.

In the US, for instance, Pixel is a Verizon semi-exclusive: the phones work on all four US networks and can be purchased online from Google, or from retailer Best Buy. You can also get it via Google’s mobile virtual network operator Project Fi partners T-Mobile and Sprint, while some models are available through online retailers such as Amazon. The problem is, that’s not how most Americans buy phones – they go to carrier stores. Outside the US, shopping habits vary by country, and Pixel distribution is slightly better, but it still is not available in all markets or at most carrier stores.

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Pixel marketing has been a failure too, says Avi Greengart, an analyst at Global Data, but not for lack of effort. Google has advertised Pixel heavily on television – likely spending tens of millions of dollars – and online. “It may have improved brand recognition, but it has not driven sales,” says Greengart. Customers continue to be mainly geeks and early adopters, who love their Android ‘pure,’ without manufacturers’ skins and vendors’ bloatware – and that’s no small feature.

But even if Google isn’t competing to win market share, it has to stay mindful of its rivals. Apart from Samsung and Apple, there is the rapidly growing OnePlus. While the old Pixel 2 is selling for £629 and Samsung’s Galaxy S9 costs around £739, the new OnePlus 6 can be had for a much more affordable £469. And as today’s high-end and mid-range smartphones offer very similar features, many users opt for cheaper options like the OnePlus, or more low-end devices from Huawei and Oppo.

In the Android (and smartphone) world, Samsung is the undisputed leader right now, constantly battling it out with Apple, while also carefully watching Chinese rivals like Huawei. Only die-hard fans will be salivating over the Pixel 3’s display or camera setup and eagerly await early access to the latest Android upgrade. And that’s because, despite all the hype, Google doesn’t really have a phone in the fight for the smartphone crown – only an operating system.