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There is no Brexit dividend.



Regardless of what the Prime Minister says or what erroneous statements she posts on the Downing Street website there is no windfall from Brexit which provides an additional £350million for the NHS.



The cold truth was succinctly and accurately laid out yesterday by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies: the amount we will pay to the EU will eventually fall but tax revenues will fall too.



The public finances will be downgraded by £15billion a year because of Brexit.



These are not my forecasts but those of the Office for Budget Responsibility.



As leaving is a matter of faith for the Brexiteers there is little point trying to convince them otherwise.



There is no reason, science or concrete evidence that will cause them to reconsider their belief that our departure will deliver greater economic prosperity.



They are the equivalent of people who will fly twice round the world and still pay an annual subscription to the Flat Earth Society.

The question is why Mrs May, whose one redeeming feature is supposed to be her rationality, is actively promoting this codswallop.



The only obvious answer is the Prime Minister needs to buy quickly some political capital.



Cabinet Brexiteers are already suspicious about her commitment to Brexit and she needs to offer them a quick victory, even if its based on the most fallacious of suppositions, to allay their fears ahead of what is going to be choppy if not calamitous few weeks.



Today the Lords will re-instate the Grieve amendment and there is a strong chance the Tory rebels will defeat the government on Wednesday.



If they do then Mrs May has effectively handed control of Brexit to Parliament.



There is also good reason to suspect the Prime Minister will capitulate to Brussels on key issues which will most likely see us staying in a customs union, possibly some form of single market and continue paying the EU for the privilege (see above on the Brexit dividend).



(Image: PA Wire)



You can see why Mrs May had to throw the Brexiteers some red meat.

Finally, she had to create the myth of dividend to camouflage her retreat on NHS funding.



Just a few weeks’ ago the Prime Minister was berating Labour, after Jeremy Corbyn had called for more money for the health service, for being the party of higher taxes and higher borrowing.



Her government has now accepted Labour’s case by raising taxes and borrowing to fund the NHS (did I tell you there was no Brexit dividend?).



The problem for the Prime Minister is almost everyone has seen through her shallow politics .



This morning’s papers are withering in their coverage.



The right wing press have clocked the additional funding will require stealth taxes, while the Guardian and FT are excoriating on the fantasy of the dividend.



What do we take away from all this?



Yet again we find a Prime Minister who struggles with candour.



No other politician has used the phrase “I am clear” more often and no other politician has so frequently dodged and dived rather than confront voters with the truth.



Today’s agenda:



10am – Theresa May chairs Cabinet.



11.30am - Theresa May gives her speech on the NHS in London.



2.30pm – James Brokenshire takes Housing, Communities and Local Government questions in the Commons.



3pm – NHS chief Simon Stevens before Public Accounts committee on primary care services.



4.30pm – Backbench debate in Westminster on a petition calling for abolition of the House of Lords.



4.45pm – Rail bosses appear before the Transport select committee on the time tabling chaos. If they turn up on time or don’t cancel in advance without warning.



What I am reading:



Francis Elliott’s elegantly written piece in the Times on how long Theresa May can survive (£).



What I am listening to:



Tom Watson talks to Nick Robinson on the Political Thinking podcast