Measuring the Probability of Conflict: About the Model



Causes of war, revolution and political instability have long been the subjects of debate among International Relations theorists. Indeed, we already know a great deal about the competing theories of explaining and predicting war. However, to what mathematical extent do the leading causes of war predict instability?



The world Instability Index features a forecast that combines the effects of the leading causes of conflict in IR literature into a workable interactive interface for businesses and researchers. The index is based on a study of a fifteen year sample of conflicts between 2000 and 2015 and operates by combining the results of two major forecasting models.