2013 College football countdown | No. 9: Boise State

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

Husky Stadium, already one of the most intimidating venues in college football, should become even louder after the University of Washington's refurbishment of it, which removed the recognizable track from around the field and moved the stands closer – while still retaining the overhang feel of the second level, an architectural decision that takes upward-moving noise and echoes it back down, trebling the cheers of an already vociferous fan base.

The field has been lowered four feet to enable an even more claustrophobic setting; players, and opposing players in particular, will look up and see rows and rows of purple on purple, creating a sense of vertigo perhaps unmatched in the FBS. Washington demolished and reconstructed the lower bowl and the south-side stands while adding permanent seating in the east end zone.

The goal for UW was to take an already decided home-field advantage and make it better, a tall task considering the venue's proud history. Every move has been made with two objectives in mind: Washington wants to create a more enjoyable viewing experience for its fans, of course, but the primary goal was to make Husky Stadium utterly and entirely inhospitable for the opposition. The stadium opens with great fanfare on Saturday, Aug. 31. It was a bad idea to invite Boise State to the housewarming party.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

This is Boise State. All the Broncos do is win games. That won't change in 2012. And if the Broncos beat Michigan State? Then we're looking at another BCS run. I think that's a tough environment for this young team in the opener, but the Spartans would just be the next title contender to bring their best against Boise's best and lose – they'd just get in line behind the rest. The Broncos aren't as strong as they've been in the recent past, but they're still special.

2012 RECAP

— In a nutshell: Boise lost to Michigan State in the opener, a fairly predictable loss, even if the Spartans were not the team some expected, and then rolled off 11 wins in 12 games to notch yet another season with double-digit wins. Yawn. The only difference between last season and the recent past is that the early loss largely kept the Broncos outside the national conversation; this gave a yearlong respite from the annual negativity thrown in the Broncos' direction, but it did mark an unwelcome change. Another difference: Boise won 11 games, but it wasn't easy. The offense was by far the weakest of Chris Petersen's tenure, if still good enough to move the ball with some ease against the majority of Mountain West Conference competition. The Broncos had to scratch and claw their way through the regular season, basically, before eking out a win against Washington in bowl play. The end result was the same; the path to get there changed.

— High point: They weren't works of art, but the Broncos pulled out two impressive wins against difficult competition: Brigham Young (7-6) and Fresno State (20-10).

— Low point: The loss to Michigan State was a byproduct of the September kickoff: Boise would have topped the Spartans in November, after the offense found its groove. Amazingly, the Broncos lost at home to San Diego State (21-19) on Nov. 3.

— Tidbit: The Broncos have averaged an FBS-best 41.04 points per game since the start of the 2000 season. The Broncos are a field goal-plus ahead of second-place Oklahoma, which has averaged 37.14 points per game. During this span – that would be 13 years – Boise has more 50-point games, 43, than games with less than 30 points, 35. Last year's team, which topped out at 49 points, was the program's first squad since 1996 to fail to score 50 points at least once during a season.

— Tidbit (AQ edition): Boise is 9-2 against automatic-qualifying opposition during the last seven years. The wins: Arizona State (2011), Georgia (2011), Oklahoma (2006 season), Oregon (2008 and 2009), Oregon State (2006 and 2011), Virginia Tech (2010 and Washington (2012). The losses: Michigan State (2012) and Washington (2007).

FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL

— 20: DT Chase Baker (Minnesota), TE Richie Brockel (Carolina), CB Chris Carr (New Orleans), OT Ryan Clady (Denver), OG Daryn Colledge (Arizona), DE Tyrone Crawford (Dallas), RB D.J. Harper (San Francisco), S George Iloka (Cincinnati), S Jeron Johnson (Seattle), RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay), DE Shea McClellin (Chicago), QB Kellen Moore (Detroit), WR Autin Pettis (St. Louis), OT Nate Potter (Arizona), CB Orlando Scandrick (Dallas), WR Tyler Shoemaker (Kansas City), LB Tommy Smith (Cleveland), CB Jamar Taylor (Miami), CB Kyle Wilson (New York Jets), DE Billy Winn (Cleveland).

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST

— NCAA coaches named Peter (or Pete)

1. Pete Lembo (Ball State)

2. Pete Fredenburg (Mary Hardin-Baylor)

3. Peter Shinnick (North Carolina-Pembroke)

4. Pete Adrian (Norfolk State)

5. Pete Smith (Albion)

COACHING

— Chris Petersen (UC Davis '88), 84-8 after seven seasons with the Broncos. How dominant is that? Try a winning percentage of .913, or the best of any coach in the country – and it's really not even close – and a mark that's higher even than Knute Rockne's percentage at Notre Dame; Rockne is currently the all-time leader in career winning percentage among FBS coaches with at least 10 years of experience. Boise State won 38 of 40 WAC games under Petersen, with the two losses coming to Hawaii late in the 2007 season and Nevada late in 2011, and have gone 13-2 in the Mountain West last fall, to TCU in 2011 and San Diego State a year ago.

The Broncos lost three games in that 2007 season, Petersen's second with the program, but rebounded in 2008 to go 12-1, with its only loss coming in the Poinsettia Bowl. Petersen's tremendous 13-0 2006 season, which saw Boise State provide the year's most memorable moment in its BCS bowl victory against Oklahoma, put the first-year coach on the map. For his efforts in 2006, Petersen was named the national coach of the year, the first coach in program history to win such an award. All seven of Petersen's teams have been outstanding offensively – if last year's team slightly less so – which is not surprising considering his background as one of college football's best offensive coordinators.

During his five-year stretch as the Boise State coordinator (2001-5 under former Colorado coach Dan Hawkins), Petersen was twice a finalist for the Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant coach. The Broncos finished in the top 15 nationally in total offense four times under Petersen, including a first-place finish in 2002. With that background as a coordinator and his tremendous success as the coach, it is no surprise that Petersen's name continues to be bandied about for nearly every major job opening. Yet here he is, still in Boise, and the Broncos will continue to be one of the best teams in the land every year he's along the sidelines.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

— Offense: Here's a factoid I'd like to share, because it's very relevant to this coming season: Boise State is 51-2 under Petersen when returning a starting quarterback. Although the meat of that record stems from Kellen Moore, the Broncos' former legend, the fact remains: Petersen and this offense are very, very difficult to handle when given experienced and steady pieces at the controls – because heady quarterback play opens up the entire breadth of Petersen's system. Senior Joe Southwick returns after a spotty first season as the Broncos' starter, one that started slowly but picked up steam in November; Southwick was rough in September and October, to be honest, but threw nine interceptions without a single interception during the year's last four games. Better yet, Southwick showed a far greater comfort level within the offense, which led to more success running the football – he ran for 65 yards in the year's final pair – and slightly increased production within the red zone. If nothing else, Southwick's strong close and very successful offseason helped make him not only the team's unquestioned starter but also the face of the offense. Remember: 51-2. That's not a coincidence. Southwick is going to improve in his areas of weakness – confidence, third-down passing, red-zone effectiveness – and have a very strong senior year.

But Southwick won't be the Broncos' start – that'll be sophomore Jay Ajayi (548 yards, 6.68 yards per carry), who takes over for D.J. Harper as Boise's lead back. He's more than ready for the opportunity: Ajayi could've starred last season had Harper not been entrenched as the incumbent. But it's no secret that Ajayi must deliver – and must stay healthy – because Boise does lack for experienced options in reserve; in fact, Ajayi, while only a sophomore, is the most veteran option on the roster. As secondary backs, Boise will turn to sophomore Jack Fields (125 yards) and JUCO transfer Derrick Thomas, if not true freshman Aaron Baltazar, if he's ready. The drawback of having this a group, even if Ajayi looks like a star, is the lack of experience each has in the dirty work – serving as a security blanket out of the backfield and keeping Southwick clean in pass protection.

The receiver corps has the potential to be one of the nation's deepest. It's a group paced by junior Matt Miller (66 receptions for 769 yards), a prime contributor since his freshman year; Miller will be a first-team all-Mountain West pick in 2013. But what separates Boise's receiver corps from the vast majority of the FBS is the number of options, even if we're still waiting for a few, like junior Geraldo Boldewijn (18 for 197), to reach their full potential. But you can very much see the best-case scenario coming to pass, with Miller serving as Southwick's dependable target, Boldewijn and senior Aaron Burks (17 for 319) excelling downfield and sophomore Shane Williams-Rhodes (25 for 142) and junior Dallas Burroughs taking a step forward. That Boldewijn played so well in the bowl win against Washington is a great sign, since Boise does need the junior to stretch the field. The Broncos have a solid duo at tight end in senior Gabe Linehan and sophomore Holden Huff (17 for 250), but the cupboard does run thin after the top pair.

— Defense: Boise's defense will be reliant on several new faces to cement depth at each level. Helping matters is an extreme number of options, a wealth of bodies that will allow the Broncos and accomplished coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski to continue a program trend – rotating seven or eight linemen, four or five linebackers and seven or eight defensive backs. Yes, a few contributors aren't overly experienced; a few of the few are new, whether freshmen or JUCO transfers, are wholly new to the FBS level. What does that mean? Well, that Boise needs to buckle up against Washington. It also means that the defense will grow stronger and stronger with each passing week, and will be playing at an elite level by November.

No group will be more impacted by newcomers than the secondary, where as many as three key cornerbacks are new to the program: JUCO transfers Cleshawn Page and Mercy Maston and true freshman Jonathan Moxey. Offsetting these lack of experience is the fact that all three are viewed as reserves, albeit as key cogs in the rotation; it would be surprising if sophomore Donte Deayon and junior Bryan Douglas didn't grab starting roles on the outside. In a sense, having Deayon and Douglas – the former back from injury, the latter more than talented to shine as a sophomore – in place allows Boise to slowly and surely work the JUCO transfers and the freshmen, with Chaz Anderson joining Moxey, into the mix in sub-packages. The most positive aspect of this secondary is safety play: Jeremy Ioane (70 tackles, 3 interceptions) is intimidating, to put it lightly, and Boise's pass defense did not miss a beat after Darian Thompson (43 tackles) moved into the starting lineup midway through last season. The duo of Ioane and Thompson is the most underrated safety pairing in the FBS.

The linebacker grouping has a different feel without Tommy Smith and J.C. Percy, a pair of unflappable multiple-year contributors. But let's remember: Boise's rush defense declined last fall despite housing experienced hands on the second level – so a decrease in known commodities could be more than offset by an uptick in speed and athleticism. The only sure thing, however, might be junior middle linebacker Blake Renaud (46 tackles), who brings a hard-hat mentality and hard-hitting style to the full-time starting job. While he's the unquestioned man in the middle, look for Boise to lean on several hands at both outside positions – sophomore Tyler Gray and redshirt freshman Ben Weaver should share time on the weak side, though Gray's the top pick, and junior Corey Bell and senior Jonathan Brown could do the same on the strong side. Numbers: Boise has 'em. What about experience? Yeah, that's an issue. But it wasn't that long ago that the Broncos faced a similar situation – younger bodies stepping into major roles – and still flourish defensively.

Once again, this defensive front will set the tone. It's a group headlined by one potential All-American, junior end DeMarcus Lawrence (48 tackles, 9.5 sacks), but one defined by its enviable ability to trust seven or eight options across the board. Inside, the Broncos return senior Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe (37 tackles, 4.5 for loss) and junior Tyler Horn (23 tackles, 8.5 for loss), who have both been through the fire, as well as sophomore Armand Nance; in addition, Boise adds in JUCO transfers Tutulupeatau Mataele and Justin Taimatuia, who will factor immediately into the two-deep. While the Broncos will miss would-be starting end Sam Ukwuachu, who was dismissed from the program in May, the line can more than survive should senior Kharyee Marshall finally deliver on his potential – and he has the speed to shine in a starting role. The staff is also high on a trio of freshmen behind Marshall, especially Sam McCaskill, and each could provide a major boost in edge-rushing situations.

— Special teams: Has Boise found a kicker? Well, the staff has chosen a kicker, which is a good start. It should be junior Dan Goodale, the Broncos' former starter who rapidly fell out of favor after his unforgettable miss against TCU, spending last season in reserve. Goodale has secured the starting job – even if it's still not official – with a strong offseason, and should grant Boise the sort of reliability so often lacking at the position. Next: Petersen and special teams coordinator Scott Huff need to choose a punter and kickoff specialist – with a freshman very much in the conversation at each spot. The Broncos' coverage teams are typically strong, even if last year saw a few hiccups; the return game, headlined by Williams-Rhodes, could be the best in the Mountain West.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

— Offensive line: A good portion of Boise's line is secure. Another two spots are filled by two new faces with enormous potential. The second tier of the two-deep, those reserves one misstep from moving into the starting lineup, is devoid of proven production. There's the good news, bad news: Boise State's line will be extremely successful if it remains healthy, but the offense could fall apart if one of three senior starters miss time due to injury. Two of the returning seniors earned all-conference honors last fall: Charles Leno at left tackle, Matt Paradis at center. With this pair joining senior left guard Spencer Gerke, who shifted between both guard spots last fall, Boise can feel very confident in a solid percentage of its starting front. What the two new starters bring to the table is a lack of experience, true, but no one – this staff in particular – doubts the talent and potential sophomores Marcus Henry and Rees Odhiambo carry to right guard and tackle, respectively. So there you have it: Boise's starting five is really, really strong. Again, the Broncos' biggest concern is that a star like Leno or Paradis misses time; if so, Boise is looking at a pair of redshirt freshmen in reserve. It should be said that the Broncos have senior backups at right tackle and left guard, however. I think this group will pave the way for a more consistent running game against stronger defensive fronts – like Washington, BYU and others.

GAME(S) TO WATCH

— Washington: Every game is a huge for a program angling for an at-large BCS bid. But losing in Seattle would force a repeat of last season, when Boise dropped the opener against Michigan State and then spent the ensuing three months battling to move back into the major-bowl race – and did so fruitlessly, since there was no way to make up so much ground after a sluggish start. In terms of importance, UW is followed by Fresno State, which should hold a national ranking at some point before November; this is followed by BYU, which a quarterback away from winning nine or more games during the regular season.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: Boise State will – I repeat, will – win 11 or more games this fall, because that's what Boise State does, without fail, and there's no evidence at our disposal to suggest this degree of success will end in 2013. If anything, and even with some issues with young depth, the Broncos have the sort of senior leadership at key positions to build upon last season and take another step forward, making a sincere and strong push for an at-large BCS bid. Where is Boise solid? Quarterback. Wide receiver. Offensive line. Defensive line. Coaching. Boise is built to make a run at 12-0.

I acknowledge the concerns: Boise is inexperienced in the backfield, especially beyond Ajayi; is a little too raw on the second tier of the two-deep up front; is particularly inexperienced at linebacker, though Gray and Renaud will shine; and is reliant on newcomers at cornerback, whether JUCO transfers or freshmen. To me, each issue is survivable. What makes them survivable isn't merely the talent level, which has increased nicely during the last three or four recruiting cycles, but also Petersen's top-notch staff; Boise recycles personnel every season and doesn't skip a beat, and I can't settle on a reason why this year will be any different. The Broncos must again be taken seriously on a national level – they won't, unfortunately, but they should be.

All Boise does is win games. All this staff does is prepare its team as well as any group in the country, whether by finding ways to suffocate the opposition's bread-and-butter offensive tendencies or locating weak links in an opposing defense. As noted, no one fact points to a successful season more than the fact Boise returns a senior starter at quarterback. This team isn't going anywhere. It'll storm through the vast majority of its schedule, likely only facing major tests against Washington, Fresno State, Utah State, BYU and San Diego State. Is a perfect season in the cards? You must pay attention to the possibility. And what if that scenario doesn't come to pass? Oh, the Broncos will have to settle for 11 wins. This is what Boise does, and this is what Boise will do in 2013.

— Dream season: Boise runs the table and returns to the BCS.

— Nightmare season: The Broncos lose to Washington, Fresno State and BYU to head into the postseason needed a win to continue the program's 10-win streak.

— All-name team nominee: DT Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe.

UP NEXT

— Who is No. 8? The mayor of this university's home city earned two degrees from the school itself.

2013 TEAM OVERVIEW

— Conference: Mountain West, Mountain

— Location: Boise, Idaho

— Nickname: Broncos

— Returning starters: 9 (5 offense, 4 defense)

— Last year's ranking: No. 13

— 2012 record: 11-2 (7-1)

— Last year's re-ranking: No. 14

— 2013 schedule:

Aug. 31 at Washington

Sept. 7 Tennessee-Martin

Sept. 13 Air Force

Sept. 20 at Fresno State

Sept. 28 Southern Mississippi

Oct. 12 at Utah State

Oct. 19 Nevada

Oct. 25 at Brigham Young

Nov. 2 at Colorado State

Nov. 16 Wyoming

Nov. 23 at San Diego State

Nov. 30 New Mexico

Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.