Temporal plot of mortality from 2011 to 2018 of A. coluzzii mosquitoes to 0.05% WHO tube deltamethrin exposure. Δ is the posterior median change in mortality from 2011 to 2018. N indicates the number of experiments included (minimum sample size for any given data point is 14). p indicates the posterior probability that resistance (the proportion of posterior samples for which the April 2018 mean exceeds the corresponding value in January 2011) has increased over the time period. The blue line indicates the posterior median of a logistic model fit to binomial test results; the two parameters of the logistic function were assigned using uninformative (Cauchy(0, 1)) priors. The model was fitted using Stan33 with 4 chains and 800 iterations per chain (400 of which were discarded as burn-in in each case); all parameters had Rhat < 1.1, indicating convergence. The shading indicates the 90% predictive interval on the mean. Data and figure were provided by H. Toé, B. Lambert and T. Churcher.