The EU says it will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement

So - from here in Brussels - here's my stab in the dark at what will happen now...

:: Theresa May will go back to Brussels as per the demand by MPs last night.

:: Brussels will refuse to reopen the withdrawal agreement (as it has done a hundred times before - and did yet again in a statement from EU Council President Tusk which pinged on my phone minutes after the commons votes came in).

:: She *might* secure some sort of separate legal guarantee (cue new jargon - Joint Interpretive Instrument).

Brexit jargon alert🚨 - phrase we should possibly look out for in days ahead:



*Joint Interpretive Instrument*



It’s a way of providing legal guarantees on the #Brexit backstop without opening - but could it be worded in a way that doesn’t contradict the Withdrawal Agreement? — Mark Stone (@Stone_SkyNews) 29 January 2019

:: She'll then come back to London and say: "Look: I tried. I got 'nothing' / 'a little.'" (delete as appropriate).


:: Then she'll point out how little time there is left: "Oh look - only 'x' many days left before we crash out!"

:: Then she'll point out that a majority of MPs (albeit a narrow one) voted against no deal - in the Spelman amendment.

:: And then she'll say: "It really is my deal (improved or not, we'll see) or the no deal/crash out/cliff edge you 'helpfully' signalled, with the vote, that you don't want."

:: And then, in a few weeks time, Parliament will vote her deal through.

:: Hey presto - Brexit delivered. Though probably with a 'technical' extension to Article 50 - which EU would agree to - to allow for ratification because they left it so late.

Or - something completely different will happen in this nation seemingly in the midst of a nervous breakdown!

All things considered though, last night wasn't bad for Mrs May. All but one of the votes went the way she'd have wanted them to.

And the one which didn't (the one where they voted against a no deal) isn't binding anyway so it doesn't undermine her negotiation.

Love her or loathe her - whether you think it's through uncanny skill or ruthless deception, or both, she is an extraordinary survivor.

Sky News will broadcast a special live debate at 7pm tonight - Brexit Crisis: Deal or No Deal - from Sunderland, a city that voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU.