As we head deeper into awards season, I want to do periodic check-ins on the state of the Best Picture Oscar race and which films are being buzzed about as potential contenders. Right now we don’t have a clear frontrunner, but there are certainly a number of films vying for the prize that feel like they could legitimately win. Here are my thoughts on the major players in the race and my current predictions for what will be nominated at the 92nd Academy Awards!

Tier 1: Legitimate Contenders

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

My de facto frontrunner is still Tarantino’s love letter to the Golden Age of Hollywood. Word around town is that Academy members really love this film, and as strange as it might sound, Tarantino might just be the safe choice this year. It’s generally liked by everyone and loved by a few, which is usually how Best Picture is decided. Even if it isn’t the actual frontrunner to win, it will certainly be present at all the awards shows and be considered a juggernaut contender until further notice.

2. The Irishman

Even during LAST year’s awards season, everyone and their mother predicted that the 2019 Best Picture award would be fought for by Tarantino and Scorsese. Usually such predictions end up falling flat in short order, but this year it has remained remarkably accurate. Scorsese’s film has seen a warm reception thus far and could very well net him his second award in both Director and Picture. It does have a few things going against it, however: it’s three and a half goddamn hours long, which some members may not have the patience for, and it’s a Netflix film. Many Academy members still hold a grudge against the streaming service and may not vote for the film for that reason alone. It’ll get nominated, sure, but I’m still not sold on a win unless it’s truly cinematic perfection and the indisputable best film of the year, which doesn’t seem to be the case so far.

3. Parasite

I don’t buy the narrative that voters won’t touch this just because it’s a Korean film. Last year’s Roma proved that foreign films are here to stay at the Oscars, and while Bong Joon-ho doesn’t command quite the same respect as Alfonso Cuaron, he still has a loyal following and will make a LOT of new fans after this masterpiece. I’ve already seen the film for myself, and make no mistake: it is the best film of 2019, and will be present at all the awards shows. And the biggest factor in its favor? It is NOT a Netflix film, unlike Roma, which means voters won’t have an undue grudge against it once voting time rolls around! It will be at the top of many people’s ballots, and could even compete for a win.

4. Marriage Story

After Parasite, this is likely to be the most critically-acclaimed film of the year. It has all the ingredients necessary to make a big splash at the Oscars: a killer script (from a previous Oscar nominee), two well-regarded leads giving performances that could earn them statues of their own, and a timely yet timeless subject matter that will get people talking. Yes, it is a Netflix film and it will compete for attention with The Irishman, which is partly why I have it just below Parasite in my odds. But make no mistake, this will be a major contender and likely top the second-most critics’ and industry lists after Parasite, which should cement it as a fixture of the Best Picture race.

5. Jojo Rabbit

The “controversy” surrounding Jojo seems to have been a symptom of early festival fever, as it has only drawn strong praise since its first few screenings. Sure, maybe the thinkpieces will kick back into gear as we get closer to nomination season, but that surely won’t be enough to keep it out of top categories, just as that couldn’t sink past TIFF winners Green Book or Three Billboards. It also currently has a clear path to the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Comedy/Musical, since Tarantino’s latest was recently announced to be competing in Drama. Expect this to be a fixture of Best Picture categories and industry Top 10’s all season long.

Tier 2: Likely Nominees

6. Bombshell

This tier is basically filled with the remaining “wild cards” of awards season: the few “prestige” releases to not be seen by the public yet. Bombshell has had a handful of industry screenings, however, and early reception is very positive. Particular praise has gone towards the central trio of actresses (Theron, Robbie, and Kidman), which means the film will have the actors’ branch behind it and command serious attention whenever it starts rolling out its campaign. If the film is even remotely above-average, this is poised to be the Vice-like nominee of the year, boasting strong performances and timely political subject matter that will have people talking.

7. 1917

Sam Mendes’s war epic has yet to screen, but it’s already pulling back the curtain a bit and showing off the technical mastery on display through behind-the-scenes featurettes and mini-trailers. Roger Deakins acts as DP (and will likely win Cinematography again), and the film is rumored to be edited in the style of a one-take (a la Birdman). If the craftsmanship is as insane as it sounds, and the box office manages to not be a disaster around Christmas time, we could be looking at a Dunkirk-style nominee in which it earns Picture and Director nods plus a bunch of below-the-line nominations (and likely wins). That’s my operating assumption until further notice.

8. Little Women

Finally we have Greta Gerwig’s much-anticipated follow-up to Lady Bird. Its one potential hiccup would be if voters feel it doesn’t do enough to distinguish itself from past adaptations (like A Star is Born last year), but so far this seems to have a unique voice. It also boasts an impressive cast that could storm onto the scene in a weak year for ladies, making this hard to ignore for major awards consideration. And since many in the Academy still believe Gerwig deserved to come away with something in 2017 for her efforts, she may have enough goodwill to coast into major categories on that alone.

Tier 3: Borderline Nominees

9. Joker

I don’t believe we’ll see a full roster of ten films, but nine seems doable, and of the films on the borderline I see Joker as the most likely to slip in. It has been controversial on social media, sure, but that isn’t necessarily indicative of the Academy voting body. It has clearly been embraced by the industry so far, with two marquee festival debuts (and the freakin’ Golden Lion!), so it really depends on how older voters feel about the story. I suspect the controversy will soften a few months down the line when it becomes clear that the film hasn’t spawned any mass shootings, which was always a ridiculous contention to begin with. And the actors’ branch will surely love Joaquin’s performance, which is 70% of why this film works, giving the film major exposure that could catapult it to further above-the-line success.

10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Of all the middling people-pleasing dramas this year (and there are several), the Mr. Rogers biopic seems like it has the best shot at a fringe nomination spot. Like Joker, this film boasts a strong performance (from Tom Hanks) that will draw plenty of eyes and FYC campaigns as we get closer to voting. Perhaps the narrative will emerge that, since the Mr. Rogers documentary was snubbed last year, people will have a soft spot for the man’s story and want to see it recognized on the big stage.

11. The Two Popes

While reception seems to be slightly better for The Two Popes than A Beautiful Day, this has one major problem: it is a Netflix film. And since most of the streamer’s marketing attention will be focused on its big-ticket items The Irishman and Marriage Story, it may not get the attention it needs to win people over. But then again, being on Netflix alone makes it more likely for people to see it, so if they play their cards right and give it the proper showcase on the platform when it is released (instead of just dumping it like everything else they put out), it could have a decent shot. Its two actors would probably both have to get in for that to happen, though, and in a crowded male field that may be too tall of an order.

12. Ford v. Ferrari

Other than 1917, this is the high-octane energy, kick-to-the-balls film of the Best Picture field. Its early reviews are solid enough for it to remain a contender, and Christian Bale has a legitimate shot at an acting nomination, which would improve its chances further. I believe the film’s success at the Oscars will be determined by one thing and one thing only: its box office performance. If it fails to capture audiences, you can say goodbye. But if my own parents are any indication (and they usually are), this will do well with the boomer and Gen-X crowd and continue to keep the film relevant.

13. Pain and Glory

Pedro Almodovar is no stranger to the Oscars with two statues under his belt from the early 2000’s, and many believed this could be a return to form, but it probably won’t happen this year. Parasite and the Bong Hive has stolen all of its foreign film thunder, while Antonio Banderas might not even make the cut in a crowded Best Actor field! I’d say an International Film nomination is all but locked and Original Screenplay is not out of the question, but Almodovar may have to settle for that. Still, maybe I’m wrong and there are more Pedro fans than Bong Hivers in the Academy. Or…why not both?

Tier 4: Dark Horses

14. Dark Waters

Todd Haynes’ Dark Waters is perhaps the biggest unknown of the season. It boasts an impressive cast of previous Oscar nominees and winners (Mark Ruffalo, Anne Hathaway, Tim Robbins and more) from a critically-acclaimed director (for Carol) and features explosive subject matter that is usually catnip for Academy voters (biopic about uncovering corporate corruption). Will this be the next Spotlight or the next also-ran? Sometimes it can work in a film’s favor to operate in such secrecy right up until winter time, but in a year like this where the field is so stacked, it might hurt the film to have such a low profile. The first trailer didn’t look earth-shattering so I don’t have high hopes.

15. The Farewell

This summer breakout definitely drew a lot of praise, but I don’t know if it has the legs to carry through to winter. It did decently at the box office, but not amazing ($20 million or so), so it doesn’t even have a case as a culturally-relevant populist film. A24 is notoriously spotty about promoting their films, and they have several hats in the ring this year. A lot of people have Zhao Shuzhen as a contender in Supporting Actress, which I think is optimistic at best, though Screenplay seems very doable for Lulu Wang. I predict this to follow in the vein of The Big Sick and earn a lone screenwriting nod as its only reward.

16. Avengers: Endgame

If this wasn’t such a crowded year full of quality films, I might say this had a shot. It’s weird to think that the highest-grossing film of all time won’t come close to sniffing the Best Picture race, and I suspect Disney will at least put together a campaign to try. But I don’t think it can overcome the superhero bias…yes, Black Panther got in last year, but that had political and representative relevance. But hey, maybe a “Scorsese vs. Marvel” narrative will propel this into Oscar relevance! I’m a fan of chaos, so I am here for it.

17. A Hidden Life

Terrence Malick’s latest film premiered way back at Cannes and hasn’t been talked about much as a contender, but I still believe it could be a dark horse. He’s clearly well-liked, a multiple-time Best Picture nominee who commands respect as a filmmaker over his four-decade career. The subject matter of his latest is catnip for older voters – a true story about an Austrian conscientious objector to the Third Reich – and if Jojo Rabbit proves too silly for them, maybe they are drawn to this instead. It is one of the most beautiful-looking films of the year as well, and perhaps consideration in below-the-line categories boosts its signal as a contender. Doubtful, but possible.

Tier 5: Down But Not Out

18. Just Mercy

Destin Daniel Cretton’s latest, a true story of a lawyer who fights to free an innocent man from prison, hasn’t quite wowed people enough to sustain intrigue. Its reception has been lukewarm, with many commending the performances but nitpicking the predictable script and uninspired filmmaking. It would need a major boost to return to contender status at this point, and given how strong a year it is for male actors, it’s unlikely for either of its leads (Michael B. Jordan or Jamie Foxx) to make much noise. Without that or a massive box office, it’s likely dead in the water.

19. Knives Out

This didn’t strike me as an Oscar contender from the start (and it still doesn’t), but I definitely didn’t expect the wild reaction this film has received at the major festivals. You could chalk it up to festival fever, as audiences at TIFF and elsewhere love those cathartic shared experiences in the theater, but hey, maybe Rian Johnson is due for some love! I think the most likely place it would show up is in Original Screenplay, and it would have to blow out the box office to be able to sniff Best Picture. And if Bad Times at the El Royale is any indication, I wouldn’t bank on it.

20. The Report

An early Sundance favorite, this just has too much overlap with other films in serious contention. The biggest issue is that Marriage Story will consume all of the Adam Driver love, which was this film’s biggest sticking point. Meanwhile, Bombshell has the political angle covered and Dark Waters could tread on the film’s toes when it comes to exposing secrecy and corruption. In any other year it might have had a chance, but a combination of a crowded field, too many similarities, and a too-early premiere will work against it.

21. Waves

For a few days, this film really seemed like the breakout film of the festival circuit after initial raves out of Telluride in the vein of Moonlight, but it hasn’t seemed to keep up any momentum since. It doesn’t boast any recognizable stars among the cast and crew (besides Sterling K. Brown, a recent TV darling) and would probably need a sizable box office or unanimous praise upon release to have a shot. Chatter about the film’s weak third act seems to be the prevailing conversation right now surrounding Waves, and unless it manages to resonate with voters long after viewing or surprise with some actor noms throughout awards season, I don’t think it’ll make an appearance at the Oscars.

22. Cats

I don’t really want to talk about Cats as a contender because it looks dreadful, but it has to be mentioned here because it’s one of the few remaining wild cards of 2019. It’s based on a beloved Broadway musical, it’s directed by a recent Oscar winner, and it stars an ensemble cast that could get the film a lot of attention. This could easily jump up the ranks if it earns a couple Golden Globe nominations in the Comedy/Musical categories, which looks very possible with how light the category is this year compared to Drama. And hey, maybe it just had one bad trailer and it’s actually not as bad as it looks! I doubt it, but the possibility can’t be ignored.

(Dis-) Honorable Mentions: Hustlers, Queen & Slim, Us, Uncut Gems, The Lighthouse, Dolemite Is My Name

FINAL OCTOBER PREDICTIONS:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood The Irishman Parasite Marriage Story Jojo Rabbit Bombshell 1917 Little Women Joker

We haven’t yet seen a full ten nominees since they changed the eligibility rules for Best Picture nominees, and I doubt we’ll get it this year. Nine seems likely with such a wide breadth of quality films this year, and this seems like the most probable group. The first five feel like locks at the moment, 6-8 are relatively safe bets, and Joker is the most at-risk of dropping out for many reasons. It will have to sustain its acclaim for another three months at least without drawing any more controversy – and that’s assuming Academy members enjoy it at all, which they might not. There is a lot of gray area here and we simply don’t know which way the wind will blow yet. But that’s what makes predicting so much fun!

What is your pick for Best Picture so far? What would be your “dream” winner? Who would you be unhappy to see win?

Head over to the home page for more reviews, film musings, and awards race analyses like this one! Hope to see you soon.

-Austin Daniel

All image rights belong to their respective distributors.