Almost beyond any shadow of a doubt, the next season of Game of Thrones will be out before the sixth book of A Song of Ice and Fire. Just how much of the existing story is there left to tell on the show? As readers, how spoiled will we be in a year when season five airs? This post aims to look at the show’s progress compared to the books, and try to provide some answers.

Some blurred lines notwithstanding, the seasons of GoT have corresponded well enough to the books, with the past two seasons covering the enormity that is A Storm of Swords (Book 3), incorporating the beginnings of certain storylines from subsequent books as well (which was pretty much the case in every season, but much more so in the latest).

Season five will therefore be based on the material from A Feast for Crows (B4) and A Dance with Dragons (B5), whose timelines run concurrently. I provide a rough count of the chapters left to be covered below. Mind that the numbers really are rough estimates only (so don’t get too hung up on them), but they should still give us a decent enough idea to answer the questions above.

[Spoiler note: I wrote this post in a non-spoilery manner, so that it is accessible to the Unsullied. However, the comments are bound to be ripe with spoilers, so steer clear of the comment section if you haven’t read the books.]

First, let us look at the northern storylines:

Jon: 16 (2 + 0 + 14)

(2 + 0 + 14) Sam: 6 (6 + 0)

(6 + 0) Davos: 4 (0 + 4)

(0 + 4) Theon: 5 (0 + 5)

(0 + 5) Iron Islands (Asha/Yara and other characters): 10 (5 + 5)

Jon Snow’s storyline is the only one where we still have a couple of chapters left to cover from A Storm of Swords (B3). The bulk of his story will come from A Dance with Dragons (B5). Sam and Gilly’s story is of course related, and now Davos (with Stannis and Melisandre) is found in the same locale. Theon moved towards Winterfell with the Boltons at the end of last season, while Yara is still around somewhere, though it remains to be seen how her story is going to get adapted. Although I believe that a large chunk of the story that the Iron Islands could provide will remain off-screen, or get otherwise condensed, there is more than enough material in these chapters to see us through season five.

What about the situation in the south and across the Narrow Sea?

King’s Landing (Cersei, Jaime, and more): 20 (16 + 4)

(16 + 4) Dorne: 5 (4 + 1)

(4 + 1) Tyrion: 12 (0 + 12)

(0 + 12) Meereen (Daenerys, Barristan): 11 (0 + 11)

(0 + 11) New characters/storylines: 6 (0 + 6)

(0 + 6) Arya: 5 (3 + 2)

George R.R. Martin dedicated a lot of chapters to King’s Landing. Although we have learned that Jaime will get involved in other storylines as well, in what is a deviation from the books, there will be a lot happening in the capital. Tyrion’s story will be another pillar of the season arc, as will be the goings-on in Meereen. Throw in a new location (Dorne), a couple of new characters with separate storylines (we have so far heard no confirmation of those, though), and Arya sailing to Braavos, and there is enough plot to last us a season.

Some “problematic” storylines remain, though:

Brienne: 2 (2 + 0)

(2 + 0) Sansa: 1 (1 + 0)

(1 + 0) Bran: 1 (0 + 1)

Only with a lot of generosity can we find four chapters between these three POV characters that have not been covered on the show yet. Brienne’s storyline (and in part, to a much lesser extent, Sansa’s) deviated from the book content far enough that some original inventions will be necessary to bring it back to the (yet unknown) point where it matches the book canon. It is quite possible that these subplots will not be visited too often in the course of the new season, but when we see these three characters next year, chances are rather high that we will be spoiled – depending on how much of the story is shown, and how much it deviates from the (future) books, of course.

Marko says: As we have seen, the remaining material in the books can and will provide fuel for an entire new season, though beyond that, little – if anything at all – will remain to be covered. The storylines featuring Brienne, Sansa, and Bran are an exception, but I could live with getting somewhat spoiled with regard to those characters next season. However, I dearly hope, and with good reason, that I will be able to read The Winds of Winter (B6) before season six airs in 2016.

What are your thoughts? Comment below (and please share this post with the rest of the interwebz).