China's coronavirus outbreak has disrupted travel plans for millions of people – and could cost Australian universities millions of dollars. Within China itself, the virus epicentre in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, is in lockdown. Tens of millions of others have been prevented from travelling during the Chinese New Year holidays. And of course more than 600 Australians are trapped in Hubei province, awaiting evacuation.

Passengers from Wuhan arrive at Sydney Airport on the last flight out of the city last week. Credit: Janie Barrett

For students threatened by a deadly and fast-spreading virus, classes may be the last thing on their minds. But university administrators are running scared. The University of NSW has been hit by a student infection — and the academic year hasn't even started.

With more than 30,000 Chinese students due to arrive soon at Sydney and UNSW, and another 8000 or so at UTS (none of the universities publish exact numbers), the threat of a public health crisis is real, but manageable. Universities can closely monitor classes and dormitories. Infected students can be quarantined and treated.

Much harder to manage will be the financial impact if 40,000 students simply don't show up. Chinese students account for more than 10 per cent of total revenue at many Australian universities, and more than 20 per cent at the University of Sydney and UNSW, according to my estimates published by the Centre for Independent Studies last August. Revenue losses on that scale could be catastrophic.