Uncertainty is a state of mind associated with a lack of knowledge about something. You are uncertain about everything in the future, but skiing in avalanche terrain takes uncertainty to a higher level.

Snowpack varies so much over mountains and over single slopes. At ISSW 2016, Canadian Mountain Holidays guide Todd Guyn said, "Due to the spatial variability and the physical environment of the mountains, we often work in a highly uncertain state." You dig a pit here and it’s different over there. Conditions change every day.

In addition to snowpack variability, avalanche danger is complicated by incomplete snowpack information. We do our best to collect pre-trip information and make field observations, but this information has gaps. We don’t know exactly what is happening within the snowpack.

How can we make good decisions that reduce avalanche risk in the face of so much uncertainty? Here are five key actions that can help us incorporate a more objective approach to managing uncertainty in our decision-making process.