I don't know which genius in the upper echelons of the Biden campaign thought it was a good idea to have Joe and Hunter Biden do network TV interviews on the day of a Democratic presidential debate, but whoever it was should be pumping gas by the weekend. Jesus, what a dumb move. Besides the fact that it breathes more oxygen into the Hunter-Ukraine business—there's plenty of room for the oxygen, because there isn't a lick of truth to the conspiracy—it almost guarantees that the first 15-to-20 minutes of the debate are going to be about this matter. That also does the other candidates no good at all, because neither insinuating that the Bidens are influence peddlers, nor stoutly defending the proposition that they're not, helps anyone.

This is all unfortunate because this stands to be the most interesting debate so far. It's the first one since the story broke of how the president* tried to shake down Ukraine for the purposes of ratfcking the 2020 election. Hence, it's the first one since all that has followed after, including the impeachment inquiry. It also is the first one at which Senator Professor Warren is clearly at least a co-frontrunner in the field. She's taken some digs from the Sanders people on her left, and from Pete Buttigieg and (more obliquely) from Amy Klobuchar to her right. If you're looking for the person with the target on her back, she'll be centerstage.

Expect Warren to have a target on her back at centerstage. Heidi Gutman Getty Images

Buttigieg's sudden reappearance at the bottom of the top tier suggests another interesting dynamic at work. As Biden began to take fire, it was inevitable that the comfy-moderate-Sperling-Breakfast lane was going to open up a bit. Buttigieg clearly has been angling in that direction, and if he can finesse the argument that he's Biden-minus-a-geological-epoch, he can make a race out of it, especially with his sudden burst in Iowa and Sanders's numbers in a freefall. Of course, I could be completely wrong and the thing could turn into 12 people calling the president* a crook and an idiot for a couple hours. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

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Charles P. Pierce Charles P Pierce is the author of four books, most recently Idiot America, and has been a working journalist since 1976.

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