By Aaron Nielsen (@enbsports)

Bucking most analytical trends, last season was an unexpected success for the Whitecaps. Beyond a new starting striker, they haven't changed much for 2018, so will hope their luck continues.

2017 in Review

My view going into the season last year was that Vancouver was not a playoff team. They surprised me and many others by finishing third in the Western Conference, only a point behind Western Conference leaders Seattle and Portland. The Whitecaps went on to beat San Jose 5-0 in the first round of playoffs, and finished the season with a disappointing conference semi-finals loss to Seattle. After they tied nil-nil at home, they went to Seattle and never looked like a threat, losing by two.

My concern for Vancouver going into last season was that after losing Pedro Morales, they didn't have anyone to maintain possession. Despite their final record, this was accurate, as Vancouver only had 39.2% possession, lowest in MLS. They also took an incredible 131 fewer shots than their opponents, a disparity better than only Colorado and Minnesota. Furthermore, their expected goal differential was -5.95, 16th in the league. Their PDO was 1089 (3rd highest in MLS), suggesting they got lucky in their offensive productivity. In sum, this team defied nearly all the analytics that tell us if a team is good or not.

So why was Vancouver as successful as they were? The simple answer is that their key players were very effective. The now departed Freddy Montero was involved in 19 goals. Wingers Christian Techera and Yordy Reyna were also effective in converting chances, with six goals each. Centerback Kendall Waston could of had consideration for Defensive Player of the Year with his four goals and 7.5 clearances per game. The Whitecaps also got strong performance from lesser players such as Marcel De Jong, Jakob Nerwinski and new starting goalkeeper Stefan Marinovic.

Offseason Changes

The Whiecaps lost 16 players over the off-season, although outside of Montero the players leaving didn't have a major impact on the team by the end of the 2017 season. They have eight new players, with former New England player Kei Kamara and Venezuelan prospect Anthony Blondell hoping to fill Montero's shoes.

The Whitecaps have been in the market for an attacking midfielder, but return with Techera, Reyna, Nicolas Mezquida and Brek Shea. These players, while somewhat inconsistent, did provide a handful to opposing defenders with their willingness to challenge opponents 1v1. They combined last season for 22 goals both in total and expected. In 2017 the Whitecaps were least likely team to take low xG shots from distance, and one can assume a similar strategy this season.

Positional Expectations

Forward

Kei Kamara has scored 73 goals since 2011, including 12 for the Revs last season. During his career, Kamara has scored almost exactly as many goals as expected and has taken close to 600 shots, fewer only than Chris Wondolowski (who also has 36 more goals). A more unproven prospect, Blondell scored 24 goals in 39 games in the Venezuelan Primera last season after scoring only 10 in his first 62. They'll expect a combination of Kamara and Blondell to give the same type of production Montero provided last season. If not, they also have Bernie Ibini-Isei and Erik Hurtado for forward depth.