NEW ORLEANS — Saturday is the official start of hurricane season. And the Army Corps of Engineers recently predicted that our levee system may soon be obsolete.

The corps announced in April that, because of global sea level rise and because Louisiana is sinking, “risk to life and property in the greater New Orleans area will progressively increase” without substantial improvements. As early as 2023, the levee system may no longer protect New Orleans and its suburbs against a so-called 100-year storm, or a hurricane with a 1 percent chance of happening here each year.

We might expect such a storm soon. But we may feel the effects of the levee system’s decline evens sooner. That’s because our flood protections must be certified to the 100-year standard in order for us to participate in the National Flood Insurance Program.

The Corps of Engineers did not respond to my inquiries about what would happen if the New Orleans system lost its certification. In fairness, the corps is busy with what it calls a “flood fight that is historic and unprecedented” on the Mississippi and Arkansas Rivers. But the likely scenario is that many people here would lose their discounted federal flood insurance rates, making coverage more expensive, in some cases prohibitively so.