All wagers are at -110 odds and for one unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached.

Overall Season record: +$2471 | ROI: 5.4%

Against the spread: 196-160-9 | 55.1% ATS (+$1981) | ROI: 5.1%

Futures: +$490 | ROI 7.0%

Beat closing line: Yes 73% | Even 10% | No 17%

I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week, so most of my plays are made early in the week. The lines listed below are subject to change during the week.

Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250 to 500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.

All season win totals wagers are for regular season games only (no conference title games, no bowls).

Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made. As the season goes on, you’ll be able to find older picks at the bottom of this page.

Rationale for the picks is provided in my weekly Sunday Twitch show, a replay of which will also be available here or below.

Bowl Games

My strategy of wagering early to capture value does not pair well with betting bowl games because the circumstances change leading up to the bowl with players electing to sit out, coaches changing jobs, etc. I do play the bowls in live and halftime wagering options, so follow Twitter.com/BudElliott3 to stay up to date.

2019 futures picks

+$490 | ROI 7.0%

Win total matchup: Louisville +3.5 v. Kentucky (-125)

v. Kentucky (-125) Texas U9.5 wins (-145)

Troy O6.5 (-210)

Win total matchup: Ole Miss +3.5 v. Mississippi State (-125)

v. Mississippi State (-125) USF O6.5 wins (+102)

UCF U10 wins (-120)

Texas at Iowa State +1

Navy +20 at Notre Dame

at Notre Dame Texas at Baylor +1.5

Georgia to win SEC East (-200)

North Carolina U4.5 wins (+145)

UTEP U3 wins (+100)

Win total matchup: Stanford -0.5 v. Cal (-130)

v. Cal (-130) Win total matchup: Minnesota +1 v. Wisconsin

v. Wisconsin Penn State to win the Big Ten (+2500)

Win total matchup: Alabama -4.5 wins v. Tennessee (+110)

wins v. Tennessee (+110) Florida U9 wins (-130)

Notre Dame U9.5 wins (-130)

Kentucky U6.5 wins (+135)

Ohio State to win the Big Ten (-375): To win 6 units (hedging PSU +2500 for B10)

Blue-Chip Ratio teams (except USC) to win the national title (-2000): A brief explanation here. BetOnline put up odds on one of the Blue Chip Ratio teams (except USC, for an unknown reason) winning the national title, as it has done several times in the past. -2000 is obviously a huge outlay, but I think the true price should be closer to -5000, so it’s a value.

Clemson to make CFB Playoff -(400)

Pool Picks

Many have asked for my picks for their college pick’em pools. I am basing these on Office Football Pools, which was the most requested site by readers. I am only showing my picks on games in which my numbers show value against the provided spread. If I don’t list a game, it is safe to say I do not have an opinion on it, so flip a coin. This record will not be tracked and these are not games I am actually wagering. These are intended to help those in a pinch who need to fill out their pools and don’t have much time to do so in a given week.

CHARLOTTE 49ERS (7-5) +6.5

KENT STATE (6-6) +7.5

SAN DIEGO ST. (9-3) -3.5

Liberty (7-5) +4.5

FLORIDA ATL. (10-3) +3.5

FIU (6-6) +2.5

#18 Boise St. (12-1) +3.5

#20 Appalachian State (12-1) -16.5

UCF (9-3) -17.5

BYU (7-5) -1.5

Louisiana Tech (9-3) +6.5

EASTERN MICH (6-6) +11.5

North Carolina (6-6) -4.5

WAKE FOREST (8-4) +4.5

TEXAS A&M (7-5) -6.5

#22 USC (8-4) +2.5

#24 Air Force (10-2) -2.5

IOWA ST. (7-5) +3.5

#13 PENN ST. (10-2) -6.5

#1 LSU (13-0) -13.5

#2 OHIO ST. (13-0) +2.5

WESTERN MICH (7-5) +3.5

Mississippi St. (6-6) -3.5

CALIFORNIA (7-5) -6.5

#6 FLORIDA (10-2) -14.5

Virginia Tech (8-4) -2.5

ARIZONA ST. (7-5) -3.5

#21 Navy (10-2) -2.5

GEORGIA ST. (7-5) +7.5

TEXAS (7-5) +7.5

#17 Michigan (9-3) +7.5

#16 Minnesota (10-2) +7.5

#11 WISCONSIN (10-3) -2.5

#8 BAYLOR (11-2) +7.5

#23 CINCINNATI (10-3) -6.5

TENNESSEE (7-5) -1.5

Ohio (6-6) -7.5

Southern Miss (7-5) +7.5

UL Lafayette (10-3) -13.5

Previously

Bud’s 2019 picks Wager W | L | P Beat Close? Wager W | L | P Beat Close? Florida v. Miami U50.5 W Yes Arizona v. Hawaii O70 W Even Arizona at Hawaii +11 W Yes Utah -5 at BYU W Even Duke v. Alabama U60.5 W Yes Oregon v. Auburn U58.5 W Yes Virginia Tech -2 at BC (-120) L Yes East Carolina +18 at NC State L Yes Colorado v. Colorado State U65 L Yes Oregon v. Auburn -3 W Yes Texas State +33.5 at Texas A&M L No Louisiana Tech +21 at Texas L Yes FIU +3 at Tulane L Even Tulsa at Michigan State -22.5 L Yes Clemson -23.5 1H (-107) W Yes Houston at Oklahoma U82.5 W Yes Texas A&M at Clemson -20 L No LSU -3.5 at Texas W Yes UAB at Akron +11 P Yes Old Dominion at VT -26 L Yes Vanderbilt +9 at Purdue L Yes West Virginia at Missouri -10.5 W Yes Bowling Green +24 at Kansas State L No Nebraska -7 (+100) at Colorado L No Charlotte at App State -20.5 L Yes Wyoming at Texas State +8.5 L Yes BYU at Tennessee -2 L Yes Coastal Carolina +10.5 at Kansas W Yes Buffalo at Penn State -21 W Yes UTEP at Texas Tech -33 W Yes Cal at Washington -11 L Yes Tulane at Auburn -18.5 L No La Monroe at FSU -21 L Yes Nevada +24.5 at Oregon L Yes Arkansas at Ole Miss -6 W No Air Force at Colorado -1.5 L Yes Alabama at South Carolina +26 W Even Arkansas State +31.5 at Georgia L No Buffalo at Liberty +6.5 W Yes Charlotte Over 43 points (team total) W Even Colorado State +13.5 at Arkansas L Yes Duke at Middle Tennessee +7 (-115) L Yes East Carolina +9 at Navy L Yes Eastern Michigan at Illinois Over 55 W Yes EMU +11.5 at Illinois W Yes Florida State at Virginia -7 P Even Georgia State +12 at Western Michigan L Yes Hawaii +23 at Washington L Yes Iowa +1 at Iowa State W Yes Kansas at Boston College -17 L Yes LA Tech -7 at Bowling green W Yes Marshall Under 27 points (team total) L Yes Miami (Ohio) +16.5 at Cincinnati L No Mississippi State Over 29 points (team total) L Even NC State -6.5 at West Virginia L Yes New Mexico State Under 17.5 points (team total) W Yes NIU +14 at Nebraska L Even Northwestern Under 35 points (team total) W Even Oklahoma -17 at UCLA W Yes Oklahoma at UCLA +24 L Yes Oklahoma State -12 at Tulsa W Yes Oklahoma State Over 39 points (team total) W Even Pitt at Penn State -16.5 L Yes Southern Miss +4 at Troy W Yes Stanford at UCF -7 W Yes TCU +1.5 at Purdue W Yes Texas Tech -3 at Arizona L No UNC at Wake Forest -3.5 (-105) W No UNC at Wake Forest Over 64 L Yes USC -2 at BYU L Yes WKU vs. Louisville -7.5 (neutral site) W Yes Houston at Tulane -1 W Yes UL Lafayette +6.5 at Ohio W Yes WMU +4 at Syracuse L Yes Michigan at Wisconsin -3 W Yes Toledo -5.5 at Colorado State W Even New Mexico State at New Mexico -3 P Yes Cal PK at Ole Miss W No Georgia State at Texas State +1 W Yes LSU -19 at Vanderbilt W Yes Appalachian State +3 at UNC W Yes WVU at Kansas +7 W Yes Oregon -10 at Stanford W Yes UCF/Pitt U59.5 L No UConn/Indiana U58 W Yes Temple/Buffalo U57.5 L Yes Michigan State/Northwestern U40 L Yes Troy/Akron O52.5 L Yes Michigan/Wisconsin U51.5 W Yes Cal Ole Miss U43.5 L Yes AppSt/UNC O56.5 W Yes S.Ala/UAB U49.5 W Yes Michigan State -5.5 at Northwestern W Yes Washington -6 at BYU W Yes Auburn +4 at Texas A&M W Yes Oklahoma State +7.5 (-115) at Texas W Yes South Alabama +13 at UAB L Yes Baylor -24.5 at Rice L Yes Oregon at Stanford Under 58.5 W Yes San Jose State at Arkansas Under 61.5 W Even Arizona State +5 (-115) at Cal W Yes Arkansas State/Troy O60.5 W No Arkansas/Texas A&M U55 L No Buffalo +5 at Miami (Ohio) L Yes Cincinnati at Marshall +4 (-111) L Even Coastal Carolina +17.5 (-115) at Appalachian State L Yes Duke +6.5 at Virginia Tech W Yes FAU +2.5 at Charlotte W Yes Florida State Over 33 (team total) L Yes Fresno -17 (-105) at New Mexico State L Yes Georgia Tech/Temple U53 W Yes Hawaii +2.5 at Nevada W Yes Houston at North Texas +3 L Yes Iowa State +3.5 at Baylor W Yes Kansas State +7.5 at Oklahoma State L Yes Middle Tennessee/Iowa O49.5 W Yes Minnesota -1 at Purdue W Yes New Mexico at Liberty -9 L No Northwestern at Wisconsin -22 L Yes Ohio State -15 at Nebraska W Yes Ole Miss +35 at Alabama W No Penn State -6.5 (-115) at Maryland W Even San Jose State +24 at Air Force W Yes SMU -6.5 at South Florida W Yes Stanford at Oregon State +5.5 W Yes Texas Tech/Oklahoma U70.5 L Yes UAB +4.5 at WKU L Yes UAB/WKU U49.5 W Yes UCLA/Arizona O69 L No UL-Lafayette -3.5 at Georgia Southern W No UNLV at Wyoming -7 W Yes Wake Forest -3 at Boston College P Yes Arizona +4.5 at Colorado W Yes Arkansas State -5 at Georgia State L Yes Ball State +9 at NIU W Yes Baylor +5.5 (-115) at Kansas State W Yes Baylor/Kansas State U54 W Yes Cal at Oregon -14 L Yes Cal/Oregon U47 W Yes Illinois +14.5 at Minnesota L Yes Illinois/Minnesota O55.5 W Yes Iowa +7 at Michigan P Yes Liberty -4.5 at New Mexico State W No Liberty/NMSU U63 W No Marshall at MTSU +8.5 W Yes Marshall/Middle Tennessee O56.5 L No Memphis -14.5 at ULM W Yes Ohio at Buffalo +4 W Yes Oklahoma State/Texas Tech U68 L Yes Purdue at Penn State -17 W Yes Purdue/Penn State O58.5 L No San Diego State -6 (-105) at Colorado State W Even Tulane +1 at Army W Yes Tulane/Army O45.5 W No USF at UConn +14.5 L Yes Utah State +28 at LSU L Yes Virginia Tech at Miami -8.5 L Yes Washington -13 (-115) at Stanford L No Western Kentucky PK at Old Dominion W Yes WMU +4.5 at Toledo L Yes San Jose State +7.5 at Nevada W Yes Charlotte at FIU -2 W Yes Middle Tennessee at FAU -9 (-115) W Yes Iowa State -7.5 at West Virginia W Yes BYU at USF +6.5 W Yes Colorado State at New Mexico +7 L Yes Louisville +9 at Wake Forest W Yes Maryland -2 at Purdue L Yes North Texas +5 at Southern Miss L Yes Nebraska at Minnesota -6.5 W Yes Penn State -2.5 at Iowa W Yes Alabama at Texas A&M +18 L Yes Oklahoma -10 v. Texas L Yes Florida +14 at LSU P Even Cincinnati at Houston +7.5 L No ULM at Texas State -1 L No Colorado State/New Mexico U70 W No BYU/USF U53.5 W No FSu at Clemson -16 (1H) W No Memphis/Temple U52.5 L No Texas Tech/Baylor U58 L No Army/WKU O41.5 L No Ohio State at Northwestern Team Total U6 (-129) 1H W Yes Auburn at Arkansas Team Total Under 7.5 (-105) 1H W Yes Duke Team Total Under 10 (-115) 1H at Virginia W Even East Carolina/UCF Under 62 L No Indiana at Maryland Under 57.5 L No Tennessee/Alabama Under 61.5 W No NC State at Boston College Over 53.5 W No Army at Georgia State Over 56 L No Florida State at Wake Forest Over 67.5 L Yes NIU at Miami (OH) Over 47.5 W Yes Old Dominion/UAB Under 43 L Yes Purdue/Iowa Over 47 L Yes Pitt/Syracuse Under 54 W Yes WVU/Oklahoma Under 65 L Yes Middle Tennessee State at North Texas Over 57.5 W Yes Nevada/Utah State Under 63 W Yes UNC/VT Over 54.5 W Yes Oregon/Washington Under 56 L Yes FSU +4 at Wake Forest W Yes Boise State -2.5 at BYU L Yes Missouri -17.5 (-120) at Vanderbilt L Yes Indiana -2.5 at Maryland W Yes Air Force -1 at Hawaii W Yes San Diego State -6.5 (-115) at San Jose State W Yes Buffalo at Akron +18 L Yes UTEP at FIU -20.5 L Yes Northern Illinois at Miami (Ohio) +3 (-105) W Yes Oregon at Washington +3 (-115) L Even Oregon State +10.5 (-115) at Cal W Even Coastal Carolina +6.5 at Georgia Southern W No UNC at Virginia Tech +3.5 (-105) W No Georgia Tech at Miami -19.5 L No Baylor +4 at Oklahoma State W No SMU at Houston +14 (-105) W Yes Oklahoma at Kansas State +24 W Yes Iowa -8.5 at Northwestern W Yes App State -24 (-115) at South Alabama W Even USC at Colorado Over 59.5 W Yes Miami +3 at Pitt W No Miami at Pitt Under 46 W Yes Ohio +2.5 at Ball State W Even Indiana -2 at Nebraska W No Tulane at Navy -2.5 (-115) W Yes Auburn +12.5 at LSU W Yes Arizona State at UCLA +3 (+105) W Yes Arkansas at Alabama Under 60 W Yes Utah State at Air Force -2.5 W Yes Washington State +15.5 at Oregon W Yes Eastern Michigan +3 (-115) at Toledo P Yes San Jose State at Army -9 L Yes Illinois at Purdue Over 57.5 L No Liberty -4 at Rutgers L Yes South Carolina at Tennessee Under 21 Team Total (-115) L Even Central Michigan +4.5 at Buffalo L Yes Syracuse +10.5 at Florida State L Even Akron +25.5 at NIU L Yes Uconn at UMass +10.5 L Yes FIU -2.5 at Middle Tennessee State L No Penn State at Michigan State Over 43 L No Oklahoma State at Iowa State -7 L Yes Texas Tech -4 (-105) at Kansas L Yes UCF at Temple Under 62.5 L Yes Notre Dame +4 at Michigan L Yes Texas State +13 at Arkansas State L Yes Memphis -8.5 at Tulsa L Yes San Diego State -10 (-115) at UNLV L Yes Middle Tennessee at Charlotte Over 60 L Yes BYU +8 (-125) at Utah State W Yes Michigan -16.5 at Maryland W Yes Ole Miss at Auburn -16 L Yes Buffalo at EMU Over 47.5 W Yes Miami +6.5 at Florida State W Yes Pitt at Georgia Tech Under 47 W No SMU at Memphis -3 W Yes Utah -1 at Washington W Yes Arkansas State -1.5 at Louisiana Monroe W No Army at Air Force Over 45 L Even Boston College +4 at Syracuse W Yes Marshall -10 at Rice W Yes Virginia +3 (-115) at North Carolina W Yes Northwestern at Indiana -12.5 W Yes KSU at Kansas Over 56 L No SMU/Memphis Under 68.5 L Yes Florida State at BC +2 (-115) L Yes UCF -12.5 at Tulsa L Yes Utah State at Fresno State -2 L Yes Liberty +20.5 at BYU W Yes East Carolina +24.5 at SMU W Yes Tennessee +3.5 at Kentucky W Yes FSU at BC Over 63 W Yes Wake Forest -1 at Virginia Tech L Yes Georgia State -1.5 at Louisiana Monroe L Yes Baylor -1 at TCU W Yes Texas Tech -2 at West Virginia W Yes UAB +8.5 at Southern Miss L Yes UTSA at Old Dominion -2.5 (-105) L Yes Louisville at Miami -6 (-105) W Yes Washington State -8.5 at Cal L Yes Penn State -6.5 at Minnesota L Even South Alabama at Texas State -7.5 L No Kansas State +6 at Texas W No Buffalo at kent State +3 W No UNC +4.5 at Pitt L Yes UMass +40 at Northwestern W Yes UTEP +20.5 (-115) at UAB L Yes Wisconsin -13 at Nebraska W Yes Kansas at Oklahoma State -17 W Yes Michigan State at Michigan -12 W Yes Memphis -9 at Houston W Yes Stanford at Washington State -10 W Yes Virginia Tech -5.5 at Georgia Tech W Yes West Virginia at Kansas State -12 L Yes Wyoming at Utah State -3 W Yes UL-Lafayette -24 at South Alabama L Yes Air Force -10 at Colorado W Yes Appalachian State -11 at Georgia State W Yes Cincinnati -9.5 at USF L Yes Louisville at NC State +4 L Even USC -4 at Cal W Even Minnesota -7 at Northwestern W Yes Oklahoma State at West Virginia Under 61 (-114) W Yes Duke/Wake Forest Under 54.5 L Yes UCLA at USC -10 W Yes Eastern Michigan +7 at NIU W Yes Illinois at Iowa -12 L Yes Penn State/Ohio State Over 55 (-118) L Yes Kansas at Iowa State -23 L Yes Colorado State +7.5 at Wyoming L Yes Temple/Cincinnati Under 48 W Yes FAU -18.5 at UTSA W Yes SDSU +3 at Hawaii P Yes Texas A&M +15.5 at Georgia W Yes UCF -4.5 at Tulane L Yes Miami -18.5 v. FIU (neutral site) L Yes Troy +15 at UL Lafayette L Yes Syracuse +10 at Louisville L Yes NC State PK at Georgia Tech L Yes Pitt at Virginia Tech -2 W Yes North Texas -5 at Rice L Yes Ball State -2 at Kent State L Yes Washington -13.5 at Colorado L Yes Memphis -14 (-115) at USF W Yes Coastal Carolina +6 at ULM W Even SJSU at UNLV +7 W Even Penn State +19 at Ohio State W No Georgia Southern at Arkansas State -2 W No ECU at UConn +14.5 W No Cal at Stanford -1.5 L No Boise State/Utah State Under 52 L No Houston +4.5 at Tulsa W No North Carolina -6.5 at NC State W Yes Miami -4.5 at Duke L Yes Western Michigan -6 at NIU L Yes Notre Dame -14.5 at Stanford W Yes New Mexico State at Liberty -13 W Yes Indiana -5 at Purdue L Yes UTSA at Louisiana Tech -20 L Yes West Virginia at TCU -12.5 L Yes Tulane +4.5 at SMU L Yes Iowa -3 at Nebraska P Yes Army +3 at Hawaii L Yes Miami (Ohio) at Ball State -3 (-105) W Yes Boston College +8.5 at Pitt W Even Baylor -14 at Kansas W Even Alabama at Auburn +3.5 W Even Wisconsin at Minnesota +3.5 L Even Arizona at Arizona State -12.5 L Even USF at UCF -24.5 W No Wake Forest at Syracuse +6 W No Fresno State +2 at San Jose State W No Arkansas State -11 at South Alabama L No Florida State at Florida -18 W No Virginia Tech at Virginia PK W No Ole Miss at Mississippi State PK W No Texas Tech at Texas -10.5 W No Georgia at LSU Under 28 (-115) 1H W Even LSU -3.5 (-105) v. Georgia W Yes Miami (Ohio) at Central Michigan -2.5 L Yes Baylor +10 v. Oklahoma W Yes UL Lafayette +6.5 at Appalachian State L Yes Cincinnati at Memphis -10.5 L No Utah -3 (-115) v. Oregon L Yes UAB at FAU -6.5 W Yes