Senedd in 2018 — there’s a seating chart here, not like Parliament where only 400 out of 650 can squeeze in…

The National Assembly for Wales — or the Welsh Parliament, as it will soon be officially known — has been through a lot of change over the past 2 years. Labour’s forged agreements with Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Independents. UKIPpers and Plaid Cymru AMs have gone independent or been forced out of the party groups. Opposition AMs have been talking about cooperation, after starting strong in a united symbolic vote against Welsh Labour taking the reins.

What we’ve had is Labour scraping through in a minority government and Plaid Cymru going from ‘reluctant partner’, voting through budgets and agreed policies, to acrimonious opposition. The three parties facing down the Welsh Labour Government know that if they want to make a real impact, they have to work together.

All in all, the Fifth Assembly has seen more change and disruption in its first 18 months than the Fourth Assembly did in its whole 5 years.

How has the Welsh Government changed?

The Welsh Government has had not one, not two, but three pacts made between the minority Welsh Labour Government and others AMs.

Plaid were not technically in Welsh Government, but cooperated with Welsh Labour to allow budgets through.

Independent is Nathan Gill AM (former UKIP, quickly became independent after falling out with the party group).

The First Pact: The ‘Progressive Agreement’ with Kirsty Williams / Welsh Liberal Democrats

In May 2016, just after the election, it was abundantly clear that Labour hadn’t quite won. They had 29 seats, instead of the 31 you need for a majority. As Welsh Liberal Democrat AM, Kirsty Williams, was often an ally in the last Assembly and returned as a single AM, rather than part of a group of 5 Welsh Liberal Democrats in the last Assembly. So much of their manifestos had similar themes, it was easy to bring her on board with some commitments. An ambitious affordable housing target, smaller class sizes and ensuring more nurses are on wards were some of them. As well as the significant responsibility of becoming Education Secretary.

In a twist of fate, the former Lib Dem leader now gets to make all education policy in Wales. One of the biggest parts of her portfolio is tuition fees; there’s a sense of irony in giving the same party blamed for rising fees across the UK the significant responsibility (or perhaps, being the one to take the blame) for changes in Wales.

The Second Pact: The ‘Compact to Move Wales Forward’ with Plaid

So Labour has now got 30 seats, so long as Kirsty sticks with them. They can’t help but notice that it’s still not a majority however; luckily, Plaid Cymru also agrees on a lot of things with Welsh Labour (and we say there is no ‘cosy consensus’… perhaps a ‘progressive presumption’ is a nicer phrase).

After a dramatic tied vote for First Minister — where Leanne Wood is nominated to lead by Conservatives and UKIP — Plaid has made their point that they could be in control, should they so wish to control a rainbow coalition where the colours don’t quite match.

Instead, Leanne Wood cannily decided to support Welsh Labour for a couple of years and to work together wherever possible. At the time, they were campaigning together for a Remain vote during the EU referendum, so perhaps relations were smoothed by a higher priority.

They agreed on prioritising free childcare, all-age apprenticeships, a New Treatment Fund for the NHS, a National Infrastructure Commission and a Welsh Development Bank. This wasn’t hard for Labour to accept. Most of these were their key pledges. Commissions and banks weren’t, but they’re really just another method of approaching planning and business support.

The Third Pact: Bringing an Independent in, with independent thought…

After a steady year where Kirsty Williams has acted as a Labour Minister in voting and where Plaid have allowed budgets through and made it pretty clear where they do and don’t support them in legislation, it’s worked out okay. I imagine there’s been quite a lot behind the scenes for unsung heroes that join up Labour policy with Plaid policy to ensure legislation gets through.

However, after 2018’s budget, Plaid say they won’t be continuing with their agreement. It’s an amicable break up, or a ‘conscious uncoupling’ if you like, of their Compact.

This is fair enough. They’ve agreed a two-year budget deal and by the end of that, all of a sudden it’s 2019 and an election is coming up in 2021. They need to set out their own stall and start acting like a opposition again. They already take a lot of flak from the Welsh Conservatives for supporting them and more misogynist accusations from UKIP for supporting the First Minister.

So what’s the third pact? As budget scrutiny is underway, the First Minister takes the opportunity of half-term to carry out a reshuffle. And we have a second non-Labour Minister, former Plaid Cymru leader Dafydd Elis-Thomas.

What happened there? Only those in the ‘Cardiff Bay bubble’ would’ve followed this closely, but a few months after their Compact with Labour in October 2016, Elis-Thomas left Plaid, indicating that he will be supporting the Welsh Government and sitting as an Independent.

Independent is Dafydd Elis-Thomas AM (former Plaid).

Independents include Neil McEvoy (former Plaid) and Mandy Jones AM (former UKIP but, upon entry to the Assembly, denied membership of the party). For this rainbow, Mark Reckless is counted as a Conservative, as he is a member of the party group but not the party… still following?

It seems that his support of Labour over the past year has paid off and he is now ‘Minister for Fun’ as some people call it… Minister for Culture, Tourism and Sport. Sounds like a laugh, right? Must surely involve many photo ops on zip wires and on film sets? It actually means difficult budgets, because culture is always last priority during austerity, but you tend to get free tickets to the rugby. He doesn’t always do as he’s told though, as the Christmas present of him describing Wales as a ‘principality’ caused a frisson. (It’s a country, by the way. And the Welsh Government quickly disowned the remarks).

Amongst all this however, the Cabinet reshuffle was conducted against a tragic backdrop. Another reason that Carwyn Jones needed to shore up his numbers in the Cabinet is because he sacked the Communities and Children Secretary, Carl Sargeant, from his post and he became, for four days only, an Independent AM. This was amongst allegations of his personal conduct, apparently unknown to him, and he died in an apparent suicide in early November.

Since then, a by-election was held in February, to be replaced by his son, Jack Sargeant. Whilst he sits as a Labour AM, it’s safe to say that the Welsh Labour group has had an awful few months. Grief, anger and confusion are still rife. With inquiries still to get properly underway, and Sargeant’s family pressing to ensure the work is properly done, the First Minister’s position has become untenable. Inevitably, the political sphere is ripe with speculation over who will replace him.

How stable is the Assembly’s current arrangement?

The opposition has been through a tumultuous time. UKIP has lost Nathan Gill, Mark Reckless and Mandy Jones in less than 2 years. Plaid lost Dafydd Elis-Thomas and suspended Neil McEvoy from the party, seemingly indefinitely, amongst other allegations of bullying.

Safe to say, it’s unstable and there could be more movements in the next year. For example, were Carwyn Jones to step aside (even before the events of late 2017, it was always assumed he’d step down before the next election in 2021), his agreements with Kirsty Williams and Dafydd Elis-Thomas may not stick. A new leader would have no better option to try and keep them, but you never know.

Now, I’ve got to publish this blog before it becomes out of date…