In a report released on Friday, analyst firm Gartner predicts Symbian and Android will become the dominant mobile operating systems by 2014, with both RIM and Microsoft's Windows Phone OSes trailing off into relative irrelevance.

In a report released on Friday, analyst firm Gartner predicts Symbian and Android will become the dominant mobile operating systems by 2014, with both RIM and Microsoft's Windows Phone OSes trailing off into relative irrelevance.

All of the major OSes will decline in market share in terms of units sold by 2014 except for Android, which will steadily climb, Gartner predicted. The firm also predicted a steady climb for Apple's iOS through 2011, and then a drop thereafter.

Gartner said it predicts that Symbian's share of the mobile OS market will rise from about 80.9 million units, or a 46.9 percent share, in 2009 to 107.7 million units or 40.1 percent share in 2010, to 264.4 million units in 2014. But because the other OSes will also show increased sales, Gartner said it believes that Symbian's share will only be 30.2 percent. Symbian was originally developed by Nokia, although it is developed by a separate nonprofit, the Symbian Foundation.

According to Gartner, however, Google's Android OS will be the big winner. With just 6.8 million units sold in 2009, Android only held a 3.9 percent share. But a sharp jump to a predicted 47.5 million units in 2010 will boost it to an estimated 17.7 percent market share, and Gartner said it predicts that Android will be just a hair behind Symbian in 2014, with 29.6 percent market share.

Why? The explosion in Android devices, Cozza said, and the welcome that carriers will give to "open" mobile OSes, as opposed to the relatively closed platforms of Apple's iOS and Symbian.

"The worldwide mobile OS market is dominated by four players: Symbian, Android, Research In Motion and iOS," said Roberta Cozza, principal research analyst at Gartner, in a statement. "Launches of updated operating systems  such as Apple iOS 4, BlackBerry OS 6, Symbian 3 and Symbian 4, and Windows Phone 7  will help maintain strong growth in smartphones in 2H10 and 2011 and spur innovation. However, we believe that market share in the OS space will consolidate around a few key OS providers that have the most support from CSPs and developers and strong brand awareness with consumer and enterprise customers."

RIM's OS, which enjoyed a comfortable second spot with 19.9 percent of the market in 2009, will decline to 11.7 percent by 2014, Cozza predicted.

Cozza also predicted that Microsoft's Windows Phone would be a loser. Gartner forecasts Windows Phone sales will drop from 15.0 million to 12.7 million units between 2009 and 2010, or from a 8.7 percent share to a 4.7 percent share. By 2014, Windows Phone will hold just a 3.9 percent share, less than the open source MeeGo OS, Gartner predicted.