'Britain simply isn't building enough homes'

Tim spoke at CIH’s South East Conference in Brighton on 4 March on manifestos – the inside track.

It’s been a long time since opinion polling about Britain’s housing challenge gave me much encouragement. Even in the last couple of weeks polling by Ipsos MORI for the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) and by Survation for Generation Rent confirmed the gloominess of public opinion.

Asked by Ipsos MORI and CIH if people thought there was a housing crisis in Britain 75% agreed. 75% of people are correct! The percentage reached over 80% in the Greater London area. According to Survation for Generation Rent 50% of private renters said they were struggling to afford a home of their own and nearly as many – 43% – said they were even struggling to rent a home that was suitable for their needs.

It’s not difficult to know why there is so much gloom. Britain simply isn’t building enough homes to cope with the fact that more of us are living alone, so many families are breaking down, we’re all living longer and immigration into Britain continues at high levels. Not only is house-building inadequate, there is a particular problem with the construction of affordable homes. In 2012/13 and then again in 2013/14 the number of new affordable homes actually dropped – and dropped from an already low level. The lack of supply means that the average house in England now costs £283,000; nearly thirteen times the average wage of £22,044. You need a big deposit to buy a home now and that often means only children with wealthier mums and dads get on the housing ladder. This has to be one of the driving forces of inequality in our country.

But at the beginning of this blog I hinted at light beyond the opinion polling gloom and that light comes from the latest British Social Attitudes survey. In the words of Shelter’s Steve Akehurst it found that “NIMBYism has collapsed across all voter groups”. “In 2010,” Steve continued, “there was not a single voter group who overall supported more homes being built in their local area. By 2013 there was not a single voter group who didn’t.”

Politicians may be sceptical of these findings. In recent by-elections, for example, in Clapham and Rochester, the two MPs who defected to UKIP campaigned against new housing developments. Perhaps NIMBYism is in retreat but when specific developments are proposed it can still raise its ugly head? The secret to overcoming NIMBYism is to ensure that enough new homes are genuinely affordable so that children of local voters aren’t forced away and that enough new infrastructure is put in place to ensure GP services, schools and roads aren’t overwhelmed. All of this leads me to believe that we need new towns rather than lots more ad hoc, small developments. We need a large amount of building in a small number of areas rather than a small amount of building in a large number of areas. We need a lot more Ebbsfleet Garden Cities where public money underwrites the infrastructure that new communities depend upon.

The Tories know that the housing issue is resonant and that nearly twice as many voters (37%) think the coalition government is not on course to solve the housing crisis than think it is on track (22%). The Help to Buy policy is regularly and spontaneously raised by voters with the prime minister at campaign events. Despite its flawed nature (and, personally, I think it’s very flawed) it is also very popular. I expect the Tory manifesto to offer something significant on the housing front to lower income Britons – the party certainly needs a new offer if it is to catch up with what Labour and the Liberal Democrats are also offering.

The housing crisis is a particular crisis for the Conservatives – the party I support. Just as Labour is held back from serving the national interest by public sector unions, the Conservatives are held back by housing nimbies. To put it crudely the Tories rely on homeowners for their core vote and Labour relies upon dependence on a growing public sector and welfare vote. Unless the party finds a way of reversing the decline in home ownership that previous Tory leaders, notably Harold Macmillan and Winston Churchill, delivered it will continue to be a minority force in British politics. 1992 might be the last time the Tories ever win a majority.