Opposition Leader Matthew Guy Credit:AAP The Fairfax Media-ReachTel poll, in four seats the Coalition must win to take back government next year, indicates the Guy-led opposition's aggressive focus on crime has been blunted by the "lobster with an alleged mobster" saga. In all but one of the four seats polled, Carrum, more undecided voters indicated they were currently leaning towards voting Labor than Liberal. But in a glimmer of hope for the embattled Opposition Leader, more people said Mr Guy should remain in the top job (about 40 per cent) than those who said he should stand down over the incident (about 34 per cent). And about half said the incident would have had no influence on their vote.

Premier Daniel Andrews had a roughly 10 per cent lead over Mr Guy in Bentleigh, Mordialloc and Frankston. Credit:Chris Hopkins It is believed Mr Guy retains the support of most in his party room for now, despite having had the worst week of his parliamentary career. Senior Liberal MPs who spoke to Fairfax Media late last week said they had resolved to put the controversy behind them and back Mr Guy as their best hope to lead them to victory. Cartoon: Matt Golding Fairfax asked voters in the swinging seats of Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Carrum and Frankston questions about their views on issues including who should lead Victoria; the Lobster Cave dinner and its implications for Mr Guy; Victoria's crime rate; and which issues the state's politicians should focus on.

The automated phone poll of more than 700 voters in each seat was conducted on Friday night. The poll suggests the lead Premier Daniel Andrews has over Mr Guy as preferred premier is not insurmountable, despite the damage the dinner and donations saga has done to Mr Guy's standing. Mr Andrews had a roughly 10 per cent lead over Mr Guy in Bentleigh, Mordialloc and Frankston, but was shaded by his conservative rival by 50.2 per cent to 49.8 per cent in Carrum. Labor holds Bentleigh, Carrum and Frankston by paper-thin margins of less than 1 per cent, and holds Mordialloc by a 2.1 per cent margin.

If the weekend poll results were replicated in an election, Labor would romp home with a two-party-preferred margin of 12 per cent in Bentleigh and 10 per cent in Mordialloc and win with less safe buffers of 2 per cent in Carrum and 4 per cent in Frankston. The four seats along the Frankston railway line have been critical to the outcome of the past two state elections, swinging from Labor to Liberal when John Brumby was defeated in 2010, and back to Labor in 2014. The poll was conducted days after Fairfax Media revealed Mr Guy went to dinner with, among others, prominent fruit-and-vegetable businessman Frank Lamattina and Mr Lamattina's cousin Tony Madafferi, who police suspect is the head of the Melbourne Mafia although he has never been charged with any crime.

Mr Guy claims not to have known beforehand that Mr Madafferi, who denies having Mafia links, would be present. Liberal operative Barrie Macmillan, who was also at the dinner, later discussed being the intermediary for a large donation to the party and dividing it into smaller, non-disclosable amounts. Mr Macmillan resigned last week after the scandal broke. But if the poll is good news for Labor, it contains a warning for both major parties on the potential drift towards One Nation in Melbourne's outer suburbs. One Nation received support from 7.8 per cent of those polled in Mordialloc, for example, eclipsing the Greens, who got 6.8 per cent in that electorate; it received 6.3 per cent support in Carrum, 5.3 per cent in Frankston and 5 per cent in Bentleigh.

There was overwhelming agreement in all seats polled that crime rates are worsening in Victoria, an issue the Liberals have targeted with a swag of "zero tolerance" policies such as mandatory sentencing for repeat violent offenders and harsher crackdowns on bail breaches. More than two-thirds agreed that crime is increasing in Victoria, with as few as 3-7 per cent taking the view crime is getting better under the Andrews government. But on the question of whether Mr Guy is himself tough on crime, the result was mixed. More, especially men, took the position that he does have a tough stance on crime, but in each seat the proportion of people who said they didn't know was greatest, suggesting the opposition's message is not reaching many in the electorate. Loading

Voters were also polled on which political issues were most important to them. Housing affordability topped the list of concerns in every electorate, with transport and healthcare also of significant worry, followed by jobs and education.