From unofficial channels a message was conveyed that, if there is a return to 2013 circumstances, negotiations can be resumed . Imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan in his 2013 Nowruz Day message had called on the organization to withdraw from Turkey and initiated negotiations with the government.

Minister of Energy Berat Albayrak said the Roboski file on the killing of 34 villagers in 2011 by the Turkish air force will be reopened. Huseyin Erten, the former commander of the Roboski area , was detained in the coup plot investigations.

It is said that some of the key coup plotters were the generals who were commanding operations against the PKK.

For the past few years, both the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) have been warning about the Gulen movement supporters infiltrating the police and the army. After the July 15 coup attempt, the relevant question is whether the government, while weeding out the Gulenists, can return to the peace table with the Kurds. There are some signs that give hope to such an eventuality.

Of course, as much as they can be genuine, moves toward peace can also be a tactic to pass through a critical period without much damage.

Game spoilers

Just as the government said that the Russian jet was shot down by a Gulenist pilot when it was making up with Russia, it is also putting the blame on Gulenist commanders for the destruction and fatalities inflicted on the Kurds. But this doesn’t really mean that the government is ready to sit down with the Kurds. The government keeps saying, “Yes, we will open up to the Kurds, but also fight the PKK.” Also there are a myriad of internal and external reasons why it won’t be easy to revert to the optimistic days of 2013. What are these factors?

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan invited leaders of three political parties in the parliament to a meeting to give an impression of national unity, but he kept the HDP out. HDP Chairman Selahattin Demirtas called that a mistake. “This is an indicator of how they did not fully grasp the consequences of the coup attempt. The key to democracy is the HDP. The coup was triggered by the mindset that passed on the Kurdish question to the army. If one more time they pretend the HDP doesn’t exist and say ‘We will solve the problems with Turkish national front,’ it is their choice, but it is a very wrong, flawed approach,” he said.

There are rumors that Demirtas could be invited to the president’s next meeting with party leaders. But Erdogan continues to rely on nationalist backing. A new peace initiative with the PKK could disrupt Erdogan’s relations with nationalist party leader Devlet Bahceli.

Erdogan will revert to his normal agenda after removing the Gulenists from power and when he feels confident again. His normal agenda is the presidential system. His close relations with the nationalist and conservative circles give Erdogan a chance to amend the constitution. Should the HDP change position and support such a presidential system, the entire picture could change, but that would be political suicide for the HDP.

The PKK is no longer an issue confined to the internal dynamics of Turkey. The government’s priority is to terminate the autonomous body in the Rojava region. None of the post-coup statements signal a softening up of its approach to the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military arm, the People's Protection Units (YPG). The government has committed itself so much to the narrative of “the PKK and YPG are more dangerous than the Islamic State” that any backtracking could be detrimental to the Justice and Development Party.

Tensions with Washington were escalated when Turkey accused the United States of being behind the coup attempt. The Obama administration’s lack of commitment to extradite Fethullah Gulen has seriously soured relations. Meanwhile, the United States continues its partnership with the YPG. Turkey’s anger against the United States has amplified its distrust in the US-Kurdish partnership.

Parallel to the tension with Washington, Turkey is sliding away from the Atlantic axis toward a Eurasia axis. The condition for a new beginning with Russia is a change in its Syria policy. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov explained it eloquently when he said developing cooperation with Turkey depends on how much the two countries can cooperate for a solution to the Syrian question. Lavrov said Russia delivered plenty of evidence of how Turkish territory was used for financing of terrorists and transfer of armed militants. “Our Turkish partners will not only have to respond to these charges, but also adopt measures against them,” he said.

Given the Shiite-phobic character of the Gulen movement, a similar rapprochement with Iran is possible.

Should a Moscow, Tehran and Ankara partnership become functional, its reflections on Syria could be against Kurdish interests. In return for changing its Syrian policy, Ankara could demand that Rojava be under control of the central regime as an integral part of Syria. Such a scenario will of course mean wiping out any peace prospects with the Kurds.

HDP not very optimistic

The HDP is anxiously awaiting the post-July 15 changes. Although they feel that in such a difficult period the government will not pursue a combative stance, nobody expects a return to 2013. The prevailing feeling is that the government could launch moves to win over the Kurdish voters after the destruction of Sur, Cizre and Nusaybin and while doing that transfer operations from towns to rural terrain.

Former HDP deputy Nazmi Gur thinks that marginalizing the Kurds will not solve the problems. “This is discrimination. The HDP was ahead of the [main opposition Republican People's Party] CHP against the coup and proposed a parliamentary inquiry. The HDP wanted the parliament to be functional instead of declaring a state of emergency. Marginalizing the HDP under the guise of national unity will seriously weaken the struggle against the coup,” he told Al-Monitor.

About a new dialog possibility, Gur said, “Since July 24, 2015, the government has opted for war. It didn’t change its attitude after the coup attempt. The government cannot shirk its responsibility by blaming the Gulen movement for everything. Currently there is deep silence about those facing the lifting of their parliamentary immunities. Prosecutors are busy with coup perpetrators. Some prosecutors dealing with the immunity issue have been dismissed. I suppose when it is all calm again, the issue will be brought up.”

HDP Deputy Ahmet Tan said that some people close to the government have asked the HDP to send messages to the PKK command at Qandil that should there be a return to the 2013 circumstances, a new process can be launched. According to Tan, cessation of hostilities does not depend only on the government but also the PKK’s decision.

“The government won’t say let’s pick up from where we left it. It will leave touchy issues to time. While the PKK sits at Qandil and Rojava, nobody in Ankara can initiate a peace move because of nationalist rejection,” said Tan. “The government is playing the option of reaching agreements with Russia, Iran and the Syrian Baath to have the Syrian regime again control Rojava. Here, what the PKK does is important. The PKK says, ‘Let the state start negotiations and we will talk without giving up our positions.’ But the government feels that unless the PKK gives up its arms and leaves Turkey, the concept could not change. Will the PKK agree to this? The PKK is no longer alone. It has divergent currents internally. There are some who are closer to Russia. There are those who deal with Americans via the PYD. These trends will somehow determine the PKK’s attitude.”

Tan dismissed the possibility of Erdogan extending a hand to the HDP. “I don’t expect a new dialogue process with the HDP. They will not enter a dialogue with the HDP while the war with the PKK continues.”

About the parliamentary immunity issue, Tan said, “In all this chaos, the government won’t press on this issue. But if the clashes escalate, it may speed it up.”

As for the escalating military operations, Tan said, “While they are busy cleaning up their own neighborhoods, they will defer the Kurdish file a bit. Kurds are wondering why Ocalan has been even more isolated since the state of emergency declaration.”

In short, the government is spending most of its time hunting down Gulenists. But purges in security forces have raised concerns of weakness. The government is not sure of the police, army and intelligence. It doesn’t feel secure and doesn’t want the people to leave the streets. It is, therefore, in the government’s interest to lower tensions with the Kurds for the time being. But none of this raises the hope of peace.