The month of September is gearing up for two slow weeks before the fall blockbusters come out in force, with the second-to-last weekend likely to be lead by Universal’s The House With a Clock In Its Walls. Meanwhile, Life Itself is Amazon’s first attempt at a full on nationwide release, while Fahrenheit 11/9 is also set to perhaps stir up some buzz. Also, as a last minute surprise, Neon’s Assassination Nation is going into a huge 1,403 locations despite being listed as a limited release until earlier today.

Getting into the Halloween season early is The House With a Clock In Its Walls, a family adventure pic from Universal that is targeting first with around $20 million. That would be a solid start for the film, which was produced for a surprisingly thrifty $40 million. Universal seems to have some hope in it, as they announced it would be receiving an IMAX release, including a 3D re-release of Michael Jackson’s Thriller in the premium screenings. This kind of gimmick is useful in selling a few extra tickets, but likely won’t make much of a difference in how the weekend plays out.

The second widest release of the weekend is Life Itself, which is marketed as the feature film equivalent of This Is Us, the sleeper hit television series with a similar name and premise. Unfortunately, critics have evicerated the drama with just 9% on Rotten Tomatoes – add on atrocious presales, and Amazon’s first foray into wide release territory could be hitting a per theater average of under $1,000 this weekend.

Speaking of films which will likely have a per theater average of under $1000, next up is Assassination Nation. This is really a bizarre turn of events, and one that isn’t seen too often; the satirical thriller was scheduled for a limited release (according to BoxOfficeMojo) until earlier today, in which distributor Neon announced they’ll actually be releasing it in over 1,400 theaters. By festival titles with limited potential, that’s a massive number; by comparison, Searching was in 200 fewer theaters despite a much bigger marketing campaign and a bigger studio backing it. With a release like this it’s hard to imagine it doing much more than $1 million for the weekend.

Finally, we find Michael Moore’s latest documentary, Fahrenheit 11/9, the first release ever from new distributor Briarcliff Entertainment. Originally scheduled to be financed and released by The Weinstein Company, the project fell through after the sexual abuse scandal from last fall, only to end up being financed by other private distributors. The doc is the spiritual successor to 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11, which broke tons of records when it opened with the adjusted equivalent of over $35.7 million in less than 900 locations, and went on to be the highest grossing documentary of all time, political or otherwise. The main difference here is that while the original Fahrenheit played to packed houses across the country, both in red and blue areas, this latest will likely only play to the most diehard Moore fans, without reaching too far out of his wheelhouse. This will likely prevent it from topping $4 million for the weekend.

Among holdovers, The Predator will likely drop like a rock after its terrible opening and poor word of mouth, while The Nun may steady a bit following its sharp second weekend decline.

Predictions

The House With a Clock In Its Walls – $19 million A Simple Favor – $10 million The Nun – $9.5 million The Predator – $7.4 million Crazy Rich Asians – $6 million

Fahrenheit 11/9 – $3.2 million

Life Itself – $2.6 million

Assassination Nation – $800K