Research Results

Rodney Hide ... must win Epsom to allow National to lead next Government

National has shed a lift in support it enjoyed following the February 22 Canterbury earthquakes.

A nationwide HorizonPoll survey of registered voters, who intend to turn out at this year’s general election, and who have made up their minds or indicate a party they prefer, shows National down from 41.2% to 37.7%.

Labour has also fallen from 27% in March to 23.9%.

The survey, covering 1,831 respondents, was conducted between March 15 and 20.

Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, employment status, region and party vote 2008, to represent the national population, it has a maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level of +/- 2.3%.

The survey shows the current governing coalition (National-Act-Maori-United Future) would be attract 45% of party votes if an election were held tomorrow.

A Labour-Green-NZ First coalition would attract 41.3% (42.2% if Jim Anderton's Progressive’s vote is counted in.)

There is a 3.7% gap only between the two main potential coalitions, with 8.4% of registered and intending voters still undecided.

After the Pike River coal disaster National’s support rose 5.7% (from 34.7 to 40.4%). This reduced to 38.6% before the February 22 Canterbury quake disaster.

National had 41.2% support in March and this has now reduced to 37.7%.

It is still 13.8% ahead of Labour among registered decided voters and undecided voters who express a preference – and who also say they will actually vote.

Minor parties at this stage will determine which of the main parties leads a coalition government after November’s general election.

Act leader Rodney Hide will need to retain the Epsom seat if his party’s current 3.7% of the potential vote is to count for additional seats in Parliament and return the current governing coalition.

Green Party support is up from 7.2% to 9.9% in the past month, and New Zealand First is up from 6.4% to 7.4%, ending a slow decline from a high of 8.9% in December.

Horizon Research is the only company publishing party vote results showing:

the number of undecided respondents

the undecided voters’ preferences

and weighted by six factors including party vote 2008. The survey is sent to the nationwide HorizonPoll panel online. The panel is recruited almost exclusively by e-mail invitation to match the population at the 2006 census.

The larger sample size on party vote intentions allows for less error when considering minor party support.

The full result can be downloaded here.

Sunday Star Times coverage of the result and some of its implications in Epsom is here.