ASHEVILLE - Normally this time of year, Mast General Store would be absolutely busting at the seams with customers, including a smattering of locals and a deluge of tourists.

The store's nearly four dozen workers would be scrambling to keep merchandise in stock, bustling through the crowded racks and making the trademark hardwood floors groan and creak.

Instead, the Biltmore Avenue landmark is pretty much a ghost town.

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"I had right around 45 staff members before this hit, and I'm the only one standing at this point," said General Manager Carmen Cabrera. "They're all on furlough, and we do intend to bring everybody back."

That intention depends on the million dollar question — maybe "billion dollar" would be more accurate — that has Cabrera and a slew of tourism officials, politicians and business owners losing sleep: "When will tourism in the mountains return to something resembling normal?"

While some statistics point to an uptick in late summer, others suggest a lingering recovery that will only come about when travelers once again feel safe in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 16, the respiratory illness had sickened 636,917 Americans and killed 28,586, including 128 North Carolinians.

With state and local "Stay Home" orders in place through month's end at least, commerce has dried up, and hotels are essentially empty. This comes in a year when Buncombe County expected 800 more rooms to come online, a 10% increase.

Normally, the Asheville area hosts 3.9 million overnight visitors a year and 11 million visitors overall, tourists who pump an estimated $2 billion in sales into the economy. That supports over 27,000 jobs, or 15% of Buncombe County’s employment.

'It might take a few years to get back'

But right now, Asheville is a ghost town.

"Optimistically, I hope it will pick up at least by the end of summer," said H.P. Patel, president of BCA Hotels, which operates the Best Western and Glo Hotels in East Asheville. "Realistically, it might take a few years to get back to the occupancy levels we were at."

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With all 11 Mast General stores shut down for the time being, Cabrera has pondered the big question herself. She's remained busy, unloading merchandise from trucks, stocking shelves and sending out orders, but Cabrera knows local retail establishments like hers have to have a steady flow of tourists.

"That is such a difficult question," Cabrera said of reopening. "We have to rely on the professionals to get out the words of wisdom (on when it's safe), but I hope to reopen in June, and I'd like to say it will steadily increase soon thereafter, but the truth is it's going to take a while to recover."

While a lot of people have been hit hard in the wallet, with layoffs and furloughs all too common, Patel remains hopeful.

"People will definitely want to get out and about as soon as this is over, especially my four kids that keep dreaming about a summer vacation!" Patel said.

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It can't come soon enough. Occupancy at his hotels for April will hover around 10% or less, compared to 85% last year.

"Given that I am planning to open our new TRU Hilton hotel in East Asheville in September, we need things to normalize soon," he said.

Worse than previous pandemics, or the Great Recession

Robert Li, a professor at Temple University in Philadelphia, said no one has a crystal ball keen enough to foretell exactly when tourism might return to normal, or some semblance of normalcy.

"This is anyone’s guess," said Li, director of Temple's U.S.-Asia Center for Tourism & Hospitality Research. "The really scary part of this pandemic is its open-endedness — we literally don’t know how long it’s going to last."

The totality of the financial cost also remains unknown, but clearly it will be historic. Initially, Li said, economic experts thought the United States could foresee a quick recovery, a hope that has evaporated as the virus continues to spread throughout the U.S. and the world.

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The two other recovery options are "slow" and "prolonged," Li said. Both will hurt.

Li noted that over the past two decades, two other global events caused painful tourism declines, including the SARS respiratory pandemic in 2003 and the Great Recession of 2009. The former caused a 0.4% decline in tourism revenues, the latter a 4% decline.

"This year, the forecast is for a decline of anywhere between 20-30%," Li said. "Some (models) are even more, in the 45-70% range."

He's blunt about a turnaround.

"This recovery process will be probably a long and slow one compared to any of the declines we’ve seen in the past," Li said.

Oxford Economics' latest estimate puts the lost tourism revenue for the U.S. at $400 billion, which translates into a $910 billion total in economic impact, Li noted.

Some silver linings are out there, though, and Li says Asheville has one in its favor. Industry data suggests tourists, at least initially, will favor trips they can make in their own cars and to destinations featuring natural attractions.

Plummeting sales, occupancy

But for now, the statistics are pretty grim.

A U.S. Travel Association analysis from early April noted that national weekly travel spending (for the week ending April 4) plummeted to $3.3 billion, from $19.8 billion during the first week of March. That's an 85% drop.

The local region has seen a similar free fall, with the hotel occupancy rate dropping from 90% in early March to just 15% three weeks later.

"We know the financial loss we have experienced — a loss of 95% of our revenue immediately," said Steve Watson, chief financial officer of the Biltmore Estate, which operates two hotels, a winery and the historic 250-room home. "What we do not know yet is what that will mean in total loss for the year. With the primary revenue areas closed, our wine and e-commerce operations that are open cannot currently sustain a company of our size."

Like a lot of other businesses, Biltmore had to make "some very difficult decisions" and furloughed 2,200 of its 2,500 employees. The estate normally draws 1.4 million annual visitors.

At the April 2 meeting of the Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority, Explore Asheville CEO Stephanie Brown offered a sobering assessment of hotel tax revenue. The TDA derives nearly all its income from a 6% hotel occupancy tax, then disburses 75% of revenues for marketing and 25% for tourism development projects.

The TDA, Brown said, projects no hotel tax revenue through June, then about 20% of last year’s total in July, 30% in August, 40% in September and 50% in October. For December-June 2021, it should hover around 75%, which suggests a lingering slump in visitation.

"We are hopeful that visitation will return faster and stronger than these conservative estimates," Brown said in a followup email.

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The average daily rate hotels charge also dropped, falling from $160 a day to $80 by early April.

'Already worse' than 9/11, Great Recession

In Jackson County, where 1,890 people work in tourism-related jobs, Nick Breedlove, executive director of the county's Tourism Development Authority, said regaining that ground could take years.

"From a hotel perspective, all forecasts project recovery in hotel rate (not occupancy) will likely take 24 months, which uses modeling from both 9/11 and 2008," Breedlove said, referring to the terror attacks of 2001 and the Great Recession. "This crisis is already worse in the hospitality industry than both combined."

The TDA also pointed to a Longwoods International survey released April 1 that found 67% of those surveyed indicated that coronavirus would greatly impact their decision to travel in the next six months, up from 62% the week before.

Further, the survey found:

• 84% of travelers will change their travel plans in the next six months.

• 53% will cancel their trip completely, and 43% will reduce their travel plans (up from 35% a week earlier).

• 22% will change their destination so they can drive instead of fly.

That last point could benefit the mountains, which receive a lot of visitors from markets that are within driving distance.

The Buncombe County TDA says Asheville "remains primarily a drive market," with 2017 research indicating 15% of travel to the area was by air. That number has likely increased, though, as the airport has seen a boom in travel.

Glimmers of hope

Marla Tambellini, Explore Asheville's Vice President for Marketing, presented survey data and industry statistics at the same TDA meeting that suggest travelers will start looking to venture out in late summer, and they'll be more open to regional travel than longer trips.

"It looks like August is shaping up to be the month travelers are the most optimistic about at this rate for future travel plans,” Tambellini said, adding a somewhat surreal twist about where travelers are looking for travel information. "In an interesting sign of the times, Destination Analysts reports in its research that federal government sources —notably the CDC — was becoming the new go-to information place for travel information.”

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In Jackson County, Breedlove offers a "conservatively positive forecast," stating they're "hopeful for travel to return in late May or June and are optimistic.

"While June may see an increase in travel, it's too soon to say whether June or July is the 'reopening of travel' nationwide, in the Southeast, or our state," he said.

The resumption could come sooner, if "researchers and scientists develop antibody tests to determine who is not at risk of contracting COVID-19," Breedlove added.

Breedlove cited research from Destination Analysts released April 13 that "shows people are looking for small towns or rural destinations followed by National Parks, one of which we have nearby." The Great Smoky Mountains National Park is consistently one of the country's most visited.

That survey found Americans are increasingly saying they'll avoid crowds when they do start traveling again, including conferences and conventions.

Also, the survey found that 55.2% of respondents said they'll take a "staycation" this summer, up from 41.3% a month earlier, and the number of younger travelers who will take more road trips to avoid airline travel jumped from 43.4% to 49.4% in a month.

Asked where their first post-pandemic trip destination will be, 38.2% named beach destinations, 30% "small towns, villages or rural destinations/attractions" and 26.6% named cities or metro areas. Further, 20.4% named national parks and 19.7% said mountain destinations, although that included ski areas.

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Brown said a key to the recovery will be "how safe it feels to travel." Overall, she said "a gradual recovery" is a possibility.

"But, there will also be pent up demand for travel and a backlog of missed trips for weddings, conferences that were postponed, and other events," Brown said. "However long it takes, we believe Asheville is well positioned to lead the way. For one thing, Asheville has had a decades-old reputation as a refuge for health, wellness, and connection with nature."

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It also has a strong brand recognition and has been a travel hot spot for over a decade.

Airport hit hard but expects recovery

Asheville, home to Asheville Regional Airport, sees more travelers arrive by plane than Jackson and other more rural counties, but car travel still dominates. Still, the airport has played a key role in helping to drive tourism.

Asheville Regional Airport Executive Director Lew Bleiweis said it's simply "too soon to know" how long the travel downturn will last.

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"What we do know is that many of the airlines have suspended or greatly reduced service through April, and some through May," Bleiweis said, adding that such moves occur because bookings have greatly declined. "It is realistic to predict that as long as the country is dealing with COVID-19 and with Stay at Home orders and recommendations to delay nonessential travel, the industry will be at a near halt."

Consumer confidence and travelers feeling safe about flying will play a huge role, as will what level of service will return. Early indicators such as flight schedule changes and travel indicators from foreign countries that are ahead of us in the COVID-19 battle suggest "some return to travel this summer is a possibility," Bleiweis said.

They've heard predictions that domestic travel will return more quickly than international travel, and that should help the Asheville area. AVL staffers are following industry reports, "and we are looking at quarterly returns to service, with a 75% return by next summer."

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The airport has boomed in recent years, enjoying a 67% increase in passenger service in the past five years, making it one of the fastest-growing airports in the country. AVL served 1.6 million annual passengers in 2019, thanks to the addition of seven routes and more passengers filling seats on its six airlines.

While the airport receives some funding from the federal government, it's just 1.6% of overall revenue. Parking fees account for nearly 39%, while airline and rental car company fees (23.2% and 20.2%, respectively) account for the majority of funding.

"We will take a big hit," Bleiweis said. "Revenues will definitely decline, and we’re already contingency planning for this."

The airport has already met its budget goals for the fiscal year ending June 30, and it had a six-month reserve on hand. But the pandemic will take a toll, and Bleiweis said the airport does "not expect to look the same from an air service perspective

"Predictions are that the airline industry may look different once we come through this crisis," Bleiweis said. "No business will escape unscathed from a financial perspective, and that means changes will be necessary."

Western North Carolina has proven to the airlines that locals like to travel, frequently, Bleiweis said, and that can only help.

"Also, we are a place people want to visit," Bleiweis said. "As the economy rebounds, our market will still be appealing for the airlines."

Some silver linings?

In a recent survey, The Harris Poll asked participants how long they would take to resume certain activities, including flying. While 5% said "immediately" and another 10% said within 30 days, 30% said it would be between 2-6 months, and 18% said a year or more.

Those saying they'd stay in a hotel immediately stood at 7% and 11% within 30 days. Another 38% said they would do so within 2-6 months, while 16% said it would take a year or more.

So yes, full recovery could be a long-term venture.

Much depends on when a vaccine is developed and available, said Li, the Temple professor, adding that the country could see resurgences of COVID-19 when restrictions are loosened. Any mismanagement, domestically or abroad, he said, "could put us back to where we are again."

Consumer confidence is a key, Li added, and a lot of people are using up vacation days now because they're out of work or losing hours, and others are spending savings and might be reluctant to plan trips.

But if Asian countries, which got hit first with the virus, are an indication, people will start venturing out slowly. They'll go out for dinner first, then start taking short excursions locally and maybe some overnight travel, Li noted. Regional travel will come first, and "that's a good thing" for areas like Western North Carolina, he said.

"Another silver lining is that some market surveys have suggested after this lockdown, tourists will prefer local tourism and visits that are short-distance destinations," Li said. "And they would prefer nature destinations."

He also cited that U.S. Travel Association survey that found the place future travelers say they feel most safe is by far in their own car.

Mark Hemphill, vice president of marketing at Biltmore, pointed out the true bottom line in a tourism resurgence.

"The economy recovery will only occur after a health recovery," he said. "Biltmore, Asheville, and the entire Western North Carolina region offer a compelling basket of experiences for travelers to enjoy. Seeing the tourism economy stop so abruptly has wide impacts across this community that we can all see very clearly right now."

The area has so much to offer, tourists inevitably will return, experts say. In short, the mountains will always draw visitors, and much of what made Asheville a booming tourist town remains, although the art galleries, brewpubs and restaurants are largely dormant right now, and some may come out on wobbly legs.

"It is this assortment of unique offerings that makes this place truly special, so it is key that we collectively recover," Hemphill said.

Despite the economic hit, Bleiweis remains upbeat about the region's tourism future.

"We are a community that people want to visit, and a place where travelers live," he said. "This has been proven to the airlines, so we are hopeful that we will see a strong recovery, though it will most likely take time."

At Mast General Store, Cabrera's immediate concern is moving all the remaining winter merchandise they normally would've cleaned out by now with early spring sales. She trusts that once health officials give the "all-clear," or at least open that return-to-normal valve a touch, tourists will return.

"I personally think we’re going to be one of the luckier areas, and people are going to come back to mountains and our community," Cabrera said. "Asheville is an awesome place to visit, and it always has been."