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SEMI-FINALS (FRIDAY) ⏰

Arthur Ashe Stadium

(4pm start local, 9pm start UK)

Djokovic vs Nishikori

H2H: 14-2 (Djokovic)

Hard Court H2H: 8-2 (Djokovic)

US Open H2H: 0-1 (Nishikori)

Slam H2H: 3-1 (Djokovic)

12 Month H2H: 3-0 (Djokovic)

Prediction: This dynamic has always been tough for Nishikori because of how similar the two players strengths are. Both return brilliantly. Both are great defenders. Both can trade all day on their backhands. Both have much improved, if not spectacular 1st serves. The issue is, that in each and every one of these strengths, Novak is just better (with the arguable exception of the backhand to backhand duel). What compounds this matchup problem further for Kei is how his weaknesses line up against Novak.

Nishikori has averaged 49% 2nd serve points won over his last three matches. In sharp contrast, Djokovic has averaged 60% on the same metric. Nishikori’s avg for 1st serves in (again across his last three matches) sits at 58%. Novak’s at 63%. This means, unless Kei has a dramatic improvement in terms of serving performance in this semi-final (against the best returner he will face all tournament no less), that Djokovic is likely going to be winning far more points on return than Nishikori will manage. The kind of sustained pressure on Nishikori’s serve, that the above figures forecast, would be enough to turn this match into a bit of a rout in the Serb’s favour. So for the Japanese to pull off the upset, it’s either up to Kei to find a substantially higher level on serve, or down to Novak having an off-day.

Funnily enough, that latter scenario happened the only time these two have ever met at the US Open, back in 2014. That day Djokovic only managed to win 37% of his 2nd serve points, which, for Novak, is shockingly low. This was down to a combination of great Nishikori returning, and some pretty poor serving on Djokovic’s behalf. In that match, Kei did a great job of taking the Djokovic 2nd serve incredibly early and putting the Serb on the back foot, under pressure almost immediately. The fact that Novak was only landing around 50% of his 1st serves for 2/4 sets, compounded Nishikori’s advantage that day.

The temperatures are also forecast to have fallen by the time the semi’s are played, meaning we should get less sweaty hacking, and more top level ballstriking, which should favour Djokovic given his higher ceiling of ability. Considering that it’s more likely that Nishikori or Djokovic stick somewhere close to their tournament averages on serve and return, rather than having abnormally good/bad days, my prediction is:

Djokovic in 4 sets.

Nadal vs Del Potro

H2H: 11-5 (Nadal)

Hard Court H2H: 5-5 (Tied)

US Open H2H: 1-1 (Tied)

Slam H2H: 5-1 (Nadal)

12 Month H2H: 3-0 (Nadal)

Prediction: These two will be meeting for the 4th time in the past 5 slams. Nadal has won their last three meetings, two somewhat comfortably (US Open 2017 & French Open 2018) and one very uncomfortably (Wimbledon 2018).

Basic H2H dynamic wise, Nadal has the edge, which explains the lopsided slam H2H. The longer Rafa has had to figure Delpo out in any given match, the better the Spaniard has done. Last year at the US Open, Delpo was making mincemeat out of Nadal’s forehand for the first set (which he won). Rafa then made a brave adjustment in the 2nd set, spreading the play more often, with more shot variation, to Delpo’s strength (forehand) rather than just predictably peppering the Argentine’s weakness (backhand). This exploited Del Potro’s biggest shortcoming, lateral movement, and made it harder for Juan Martin to sit on top of the baseline and dictate. Whether or not Nadal can consistently get Delpo on the run and force him out of his backhand corner, where he likes to camp opening up more forehands, will be a big factor in determining the winner. Rafa tends to be able to do this successfully in his own service games against Delpo, but what about the Argentine’s?

The biggest key for Del Potro in this matchup, and frankly every match against the very best, is his serve. If Delpo can land enough 1st serves he’ll set up enough free points and one-two punch put-aways to trouble anyone. The Argentine’s biggest victories against the big 3 correlate strongly with very high 1st serve in %’s and high 1st serve points won %’s. More specifically, Delpo has only beaten Nadal once when his 1st serve in % was below 65%. The good news for Juan Martin, is that this week has been stellar as far as these metrics go. His average 1st serve in %, across his last three matches, is 70% and his average 1st serve points won % (again across his last three matches) is 83%. These are very encouraging numbers for the Argentine, especially given that his serve is big enough to trouble every player on tour, even Rafa who is statistically the best returner in the game.

Expect Nadal to camp very far back on return, a strategy which has served him very well at the US Open in particular. A large deciding factor in the outcome of this match will be two things. 1. Whether Del Potro can serve with enough variation and angle to somewhat nullify Rafa’s far back return position (the slice serve wide on the deuce court and the flat bomb out wide on the ad court, will be incredibly important in this regard). And 2. whether Rafa can get enough returns in play, deep to Delpo’s backhand corner. This is something the Spaniard has done exceptionally well in all three of their most recent slam meetings.

The last factor will be Rafa’s fitness/health. He has been dealing with patella tendonitis since the Khachanov match, and the marathon 5-setter vs Thiem will not have helped matters. Time will tell if the two day rest was enough.

Nadal in 5.

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GAME, SET, MATCH 👋

— The Racquet is created, and written, by Matt.

— You can find me on Twitter here.

See you tomorrow for US Open Semi-Finals Day!