“EXCEEDING all expectations,” was how Donald Trump described his luxury golf club in Dubai. If only his Middle East plans were as smooth as his putting greens. Far from marking a break with President Obama’s inclination to isolationism, Gulf rulers fear that President Trump could increase the distance. Instead of greater intervention, protection and the permanent troop presence in Iraq Mrs Clinton promised, they now fear Mr Trump will shy from long-standing Arab allies and abandon the region to others’ devices. “The honeymoon is over when it comes to relations with the US,” says a palace insider in Riyadh.

Maintaining a foothold, Mr Trump will probably let the Pentagon finish the job against Islamic State in Mosul if it has not fallen by January 20th. He might, he says, create safe zones in Syria, to prevent refugees from heading west. But unlike Mrs Clinton (though like Mr Obama) he opposes supplying more arms to Syria’s Sunni rebels or enforcing a no-fly zone to protect them. And he scorns intervention for ideological causes, such as regime-change, democracy and foreign nation-building, preferring to concentrate on America’s national self-interest instead. “I don’t think that was a very helpful thing,” he said of America’s overthrow of Saddam Hussein while on the campaign trail. “Iraq is a disaster right now.”

That is doubtless a relief for the region’s warring tyrants, like Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and strongmen, such as Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi in Egypt. In September Mr Trump promised Egypt’s president a “loyal friendship”, and unlike Mrs Clinton, did not bother him with talk of human rights. Both men not only endorse torture, but also share a penchant for spreading conspiracy theories. Mr Sisi was one of the speediest world leaders to congratulate Mr Trump.

Powers hoping to extend their regional influence have also welcomed the victory. “Russia, Iran, Iraq’s Shiite militias, Syria and Hizbullah all benefit from America’s vacuum in the region and support Mr Trump,” says a Jordanian analyst, Oraib Rantawi. In a shift that would help all five consolidate the gains already garnered under Mr Obama, Mr Trump professes a desire to work with Mr Putin, not least to wage a joint fight on Sunni jihadism, which both men consider the prime global threat. “Assad’s bad, but maybe these people are worse,” he says of Syria’s Sunni opposition. It is hard, he says, to tell rebels and Islamic State fighters apart.

No less than Mr Obama, Mr Trump refers to the Gulf’s oil-rich Sunni princes with disdain. He fuelled their anger with his campaign demands for half of Kuwait’s oil as the price for the American-led liberation in 1991, a bar on Muslim entry to America and a possible closure of the country’s mosques. “A disgrace,” tweeted one Saudi royal, Alwaleed bin Talal, during the campaign, to which Mr Trump responded: “Dopey Prince @Alwaleed_Talal wants to control our US politicians with daddy’s money. Can’t do it when I get elected.”

Not all Gulf royals are despondent. Some warm to a fellow blingtastic billionaire, and welcome a more transactional relationship. Some have personal dealings, including stakes in such businesses as Trump SoHo, his hotel condominium in New York, says a Gulf investor who worked with him. (Prince Alwaleed bought his yacht and Plaza hotel.) Prioritising business deals over human rights should ensure that America continues its lucrative sale of arms to the Gulf, regardless of Saudi excesses in Yemen. And though more a mercantilist than a policeman of the international order, he might not be averse to selling American protection. In the event of an escalation, will Mr Trump still defend Saudi Arabia? Probably so, for the right price.

Israel is another country where a significant portion of the political structure will welcome Mr Trump’s election. He ran on the most hardline pro-Israel platform ever, omitting any mention of the establishment of a Palestinian state in his manifesto. The current Israeli government under Binyamin Netanyahu will welcome a State Department led by a Trump stalwart such as Newt Gingrich, which might abandon the decades-old policy of pressing Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians and desist from settlement-building in the West Bank.

Still, there are reservations. Mr Netanyahu’s largest supporter, Sheldon Adelson, a casino owner and Republican mega-donor, endorsed Mr Trump’s campaign. But Mr Netanyahu himself is more sceptical, say those who know him. “Bibi is risk-averse and hates surprises,” explains one Likud politician. “Trump is unexpected and volatile and Bibi is like many in the Republican establishment who see him as a wild card and don’t trust him.” One reason the Israeli establishment is regarding President Trump cautiously is his stated opposition to American foreign military aid, of which Israel gets the largest chunk. That is one of the reasons why Mr Netanyahu decided to sign in September a new $38 billion 10-year aid agreement, rather than wait for the new administration.

America’s relationship with Iran seems likely to shift in ways that, paradoxically, may please the hardliners there. During the campaign, the state-controlled broadcaster devoted much airtime and commentary to Mr Trump’s mudslinging and broadcast the presidential debates live. The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, joined in, praising the “straight-talking” Mr Trump. Confidantes cheered Mr Trump’s anti-Saudi rhetoric and his good relations with Mr Putin. And so what if he cast doubt on the nuclear agreement? The conservatives have always viewed that deal with grave suspicion, as part of an American plot to win financial control of their country.

However, what is good for the hardliners is bad for President Hassan Rouhani, and his efforts to realise the economic benefits of the nuclear deal. After repeated false starts, oil majors are finally signing long-term deals with Iran. The EU, Britain still included, recently lifted sanctions on one of Iran’s largest banks. And for the first time, popular search engines for flights are now listing Iranian carriers. Had Mrs Clinton won, Mr Rouhani’s men were looking forward to continuing their working relationship with many of Mr Obama’s officials and re-entering the global banking system. No longer. Mr Trump has cooled on his earlier vow to tear up the “disastrous” nuclear deal (Walid Phares, a Lebanese Christian who advises him on the Middle East, speaks instead of “renegotiation”). But amid the uncertainty, bankers who had been tiptoeing back to Tehran will probably get cold feet again.