August 21, 2016

How The Hasakah Clashes End The Kurdish Nation Dreams

Severe fighting in Hasakah, in north-east Syria, continues between Syrian government forces and U.S. advised Kurdish YPG groups. It is still unclear why these clashes broke out after years of mostly peaceful co-existence in the city.

These clashes convince Turkey that the danger of a Kurdish state creation is imminent. This will unite the Turkish, Syrian, Iranian and Iraqi hostile positions towards such plans. This unity ends the dreams of an independent Kurdish nation.

The YPG declared that it wants all Syrian government forces to leave Hasakah. But those forces are the sole protection of the large Assyrian (Christian) and other minorities in the city. These minorities fear to be ethnically cleansed by the Kurds who try to install their own state in the north of Iraq and Syria.

Map via ISW

The Syrian army and local auxiliary defense forces recruited from the minorities defend a large part of the city but are surrounded.

Map by Agathocle de Syracuse - bigger

A recent second offer for a ceasefire by the governor of the province was the rejected by the YPG and its local Asayish proxy force. The YPG instead ordered reinforcements to the frontline.

U.S. special forces were in the area when the clashes started. Their role in these is mysterious. They nearly came under fire when Syrian Arab Army planes bombed some of the YPG positions. The U.S. command tried to directly contact the Syrian command to prevent the U.S. troops from being hit. The Syrian command did not respond. The U.S. then made a show of force with its air force to protect its troops. But those troops have absolutely no legal basis for their presence in Syria. They claim to be working with the YPG to fight the Islamic State, but the Islamic State is far from Hasakah which lies in the middle of a large Kurdish controlled area.

As even a mainstream German defense correspondent somewhat irritated asks:

thomas_wiegold @thomas_wiegold

In other words: U.S. Forces practising area denial to other nations forces in their own territory?

The U.S. has absolutely no legal standing in this and everyone knows. The Syrian air force simply ignores the U.S. planes and continues its mission of defending its comrades on the ground. While some sources claim that the U.S. Special Forces contingent has been pulled back from the Hasakah area the somewhat reliable SOHR outlet in Britain reports that they have been reinforced with more U.S. troops arriving.

The Hasakah conflict is now more than a minor local conflict. As remarked in our the last piece on the Hasakah clashes:

Any move against the Syrian army in Hasakah will be watched carefully from Ankara. Turkey fears, with valid reason, that the U.S. supports the Kurdish aim of a national entity in Syria and Iraq. This would endanger Turkey with its own large Kurdish minority. If the Kurds expel the Syrian forces from Hasakah with U.S. support, Turkey will know that any U.S. claim to not work against its Turkish ally's interest is false. This would deepen already high Turkish animosity against the U.S. and would accelerate its move towards some alliance with Russia and Iran.

There are signs that this predicted turn by Turkey is indeed accelerating. This move was initiated in the recent Turkish talks with Iran and Russia but the Hasakah clashes now play a role. On Friday the Syrian government sent a signal to Ankara when it, for the first time, publicly associated the Kurdish YPG forces in Syria (with which it had mostly been aligned so far) with the Kurdish PKK forces who fight the Turkish state.

Ankara responded in kind and, for the first time, allowed for a compromise in the war on Syria that would keep the current Syrian government in power:

Istanbul is concerned about the growing power of U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces across the border and opposes any moves toward Kurdish autonomy or independence. The Syrian government, too, has grown uneasy with the Kurdish forces in the north, who enjoy close relations with the U.S. government, an open antagonist of Syria's Assad. Damascus has largely refrained from attacking its homegrown Kurdish forces, ... However on Friday, the Syrian military's General Command released a statement referring to the Kurdish Asayesh internal police force as the "military wing of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)."

The Turkish concession followed the next day:

Speaking to foreign media representatives in Istanbul, [Turkish Prime Minister] Yildirim said Turkey would aim to become more of a regional player with regard to Syria in the next six months.

...

"There may be talks (with Assad) for the transition. A transition may be facilitated. But we believe that there should be no (Kurdish rebels), Daesh or Assad in Syria's future," he said, using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group. "In the six months ahead of us, we shall be playing a more active role," Yildirim said. "It means not allowing Syria to be divided along ethnic lines ... ensuring that its government is not based on ethnic (divisions)."

This new Turkish position is very much in line with the Russian, Iranian and Syrian one. This is a significant step back from the old position, also taken by the U.S., that "Assad must go" as a precondition for any talks. Unfortunately we do not know if this is meant seriously or just another Turkish diversion from more nefarious plans.

Last night a suicide bombing, seemingly planned by the Islamic State, hit the wedding of a Kurdish politician in Gaziantep in the south-east of Turkey near the Syrian border. More than 50 people were killed. Kurds in Turkey will blame the Turkish government of supporting the Islamic State and thereby for this attack. Instead of acknowledging that this attack is an obviously planned provocation, Kurdish groups will use it to justify harsher resistance. Intensified clashes between Kurdish forces and the government forces of Turkey, Syria and (soon) Iraq will follow.

In my view the Kurds are overplaying their cards.

They have been seduced by U.S. and EU promises of support. This will, in the end, not come through. Historically the Kurds, in all their divergent ethnic, sectarian, linguistic and political flavors, have been unable to unite long enough to form a common entity. There never was, and likely never will be, a common Kurdish position that held for more than a few month. The clashes in Hasakah bring a completely unnecessary complication for their plans of a national Kurdish entity. They predictably unite Syria, Russia, Iran and Turkey against them. These are strong states that can and will block the illusory Kurdish dreams.

Promises of U.S. and EU support will not be followed up with anything but some token words. Those countries have bigger interests than supporting the illusory plans of some unruly tribal people in the east-Anatolia mountain ranges. Even the large hydrocarbon deposits in Kurdish majority areas will not be enough to influence their positions. The Kurdish areas are landlocked. Without long-term secured access routes through those countries the Kurds are now fighting all those riches are just worthless dirt in the ground.

Posted by b on August 21, 2016 at 9:57 UTC | Permalink

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