Michigan governor poll: Bill Schuette, Gretchen Whitmer hold big leads

Paul Egan | Detroit Free Press

Show Caption Hide Caption Bill Schuette, Gretchen Whitmer hold big lead, poll shows Bill Schuette and Gretchen Whitmer hold commanding leads in the race for governor before the Aug. 7 primary, according to a new poll.

LANSING — Republican Bill Schuette and Democrat Gretchen Whitmer hold commanding leads in the race for governor with less than two weeks to go before the Aug. 7 primary, according to a new poll commissioned by the Detroit Free Press.

Schuette, the state attorney general, would get 42 percent of the Republican primary vote if the election were held today, while Lt. Gov. Brian Calley would get 24 percent, according to the poll conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press and its media partners. Sen. Patrick Colbeck of Canton would get 11 percent, while 8 percent would vote for Saginaw-area physician Dr. Jim Hines and 15 percent remain undecided.

On the Democratic side, Whitmer, the former Senate minority leader, holds an even larger lead, the poll found. Whitmer would get 49 percent of the vote, while Ann-Arbor area businessman Shri Thanedar would get 22 percent, and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former director of the Detroit health department, would get 19 percent. Another 10 percent remain undecided.

Also on Freep.com:

Free Press poll: Republican race for US Senate is deadlocked

Campaign for legal pot in Michigan getting off to a slow start

The automated polls each had a sample of just over 1,000 voters in the Republican and Democratic primaries. Each was conducted Saturday and Sunday and has a margin or error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

"There's still a respectable amount of time before the election, but it will be relatively hard to overcome those kinds of leads," EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn said of the GOP and Democratic races for governor.

Still, Porn pointed to some interesting findings, including that:

Whitmer is doing better among men, where she has 53 percent support, than among women, where her support is 45 percent.

El-Sayed is winning among women between the ages of 18 and 49, where he has 40 percent support, compared to 28 percent for Whitmer.

Thanedar is doing well in Detroit and winning the black vote, with 37 percent support, compared to 29 percent for Whitmer.

President Donald Trump's endorsement of Schuette carries more weight than Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder's endorsement of Calley. Trump has a 79 percent Republican job approval rating, compared to 65 percent for Snyder.

The Republican and Democratic primary winners for governor will appear on the general election ballot Nov. 6. Snyder, a Republican, can't run again because of term limits.

John Sellek, a Schuette campaign spokesman, said "families trust Bill because of his record of protecting families and plans to grow their paychecks by slashing auto insurance rates, cutting income taxes, and helping people get the training they need for better jobs."

Zack Pohl, a spokesman for Whitmer, said voters are responding to her plans to "fix the roads, clean up our drinking water and repeal the Snyder retirement tax." Still, "we're not taking anything for granted," and Whitmer will stay focused on "issues that will actually make a difference in people's lives ... so we can build a better Michigan for everyone."

Thanedar, a poltical newcomer who has spent millions on TV ads, now has the highest name recognition of any of the three Democratic candidates. But he also has the highest unfavorable ratings, according to the poll.

More on Freep.com:

14 candidates aiming to replace Rick Snyder as Michigan governor

Democratic candidates trade jabs in final debate before Aug. 7 election

GOP gubernatorial candidates try to make impressions in last debate

Of the likely Democratic primary voters surveyed, 41 percent had a favorable opinion of Thanedar, while 33 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 26 percent had never heard of him or had no opinion.

Thanedar said Wednesday he remains optimistic and plans to continue his push with TV ads and town hall meetings.

"We expect that because of our wide name recognition that a lot of people who traditionally do not vote in primaries will show up for us," Thanedar said.

Whitmer had a 55 percent favorable rating and a 15 percent unfavorable rating, while 30 percent said they had never heard of her, or had no opinion.

For El-Sayed, 46 percent had a favorable opinion and 18 percent had an unfavorable one, while 36 percent had no opinion, or had never heard of him.

El-Sayed's campaign received a boost late Wednesday with the announced endorsement of Independent U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a favorite of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party who came from behind to win the Michigan presidential primary in March 2016.

Adam Joseph, a spokesman for El-Sayed, declined comment on the poll.

On the Republican side, Calley spokesman Michael Schrimpf questioned the accuracy of the poll, saying Calley has momentum based in part on recent endorsements from both Detroit daily newspapers, the Detroit Regional and Grand Rapids chambers of commerce, and U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, R-Cascade Township.

"If public polls were accurate, Hillary Clinton would be president today," Schrimpf said.

Calley has been vigorously attacking Schuette over alleged misuse of office staff. Based on the latest poll, those attacks have had little effect.

"Calley has said everything you can imagine about Schuette and it doesn't matter," said Stu Sandler, a spokesman for a pro-Schuette Super PAC. "Schuette's numbers don't go down, and Calley's numbers don't go up."

Of those surveyed, 48 percent had a favorable opinion of Schuette, while 22 percent had an unfavorable one and 30 percent said they had never heard of him, or had no opinion.

For Calley, 35 percent had a favorable opinion and 26 percent an unfavorable one. Another 39 percent had never heard of him, or had no opinion.

Colbeck issued a statement Tuesday that said his grassroots support is surging and he expects to win, regardless of what the polls say.

"Political pundits have paraded poll after poll to push a narrative designed to suppress Colbeck’s name recognition and the extraordinary grassroots enthusiasm behind his campaign," the statement said. "While this strategy may have worked as an excuse to suppress financial contributions, it has merely served to redouble the efforts of over 3,000 volunteers."

Colbeck had a 16 percent favorable rating and a 16 percent unfavorable one, with 68 percent saying they had never heard of him, or had no opinion.

Hines had a 19 percent favorable rating and a 16 percent unfavorable one, with 65 percent saying they had never heard of him, or had no opinion.

David Doyle, a spokesman for Hines, said he's encouraged that Hines' numbers have improved from earlier polls.

"We've got just less than two weeks to go and we're going to keep moving forward" as the only Republican in the race who has not previously run for or held elected office, Doyle said.

"As the attorney general and the lieutenant governor continue to beat each other up, I think that gives an opportunity for Dr. Hines," he said.

The automated poll did not include cell phones, but the lists of phone numbers the pollsters started with were connected with voters who participated in recent primary elections, Porn said.

Contact Paul Egan: 517-372-8660 or pegan@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @paulegan4.

Candidates for Michigan governor:

Republican Jim Hines could be 1st gubernatorial doctor in Lansing

Shri Thanedar: This candidate wants to be Michigan's governor — then president

Patrick Colbeck: He's Michigan's most conservative Republican candidate for governor

Abdul El-Sayed: This candidate for governor wants to be middle finger to Donald Trump

GOP governor's race brings out harsher side of Lt. Gov. Brian Calley

Gretchen Whitmer's perplexing problem in race for Michigan governor

How 1 lost election changed Michigan governor candidate Bill Schuette