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The oil that fuelled Calgary’s housing boom has created the conditions for a bust.

Genworth MI Canada Inc., the country’s largest non-government mortgage insurer, said last week it’s preparing for more losses this year and into 2016. Home Capital Group Inc., the largest non-bank mortgage lender, is tightening standards in the oil-rich province of Alberta to reduce the risk to the company of falling housing prices.

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“The warning signs are out,” said Gerald Soloway, chief executive officer of Home Capital. “It’s only prudent for everybody who participates in that market to heighten their alertness.”

The warning signs are out

More than five years of rising oil prices spurred thriving sales of million-dollar trophy homes in Calgary and a doubling of home prices in the last decade. As the oil crash forces energy firms in Alberta to cancel projects and fire workers, housing sales fell the most on record in December and January, with price declines expected to follow. Home Capital has begun to factor in a 10% drop in Alberta home values when making loans, Soloway said.