10 Interesting Fantasy Football Stats

Week 11 of the NFL season saw an epic comeback in New Orleans, a rookie quarterback make some very bad history, and possibly a running back who is emerging in Denver. There are some players that deserve some attention as owner make a run towards the playoffs and load up their rosters. There’s a good bit to sift through just like always and we’ll try to hit some of the highlights.

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1. The most important offensive player in Dallas might just be Tyron Smith

The Dallas Cowboys offense has hit the skids in the two games leading up to Thanksgiving. They’ve been beaten soundly by Atlanta and Philadelphia in consecutive weeks and a big part of that is they’ve scored a combined one touchdown. The hot takes have ranged from running back Ezekiel Elliott is the whole reason for the slump to Dak Prescott isn’t a good quarterback. While a player of Elliott’s caliber will obviously be missed, backup Alfred Morris has played well even with Dallas behind on the scoreboard. I’m not even going to dive into Prescott not being a good quarterback. It’s ridiculous to let a two-game sample size totally change your mind. Besides, no quarterback is going to play that well when he’s dealing with this –

Dak Prescott's Sack Rate Splits #Cowboys: With LT Tyron Smith (Week 1-9): 11% (3rd-fewest)

Without Smith (Week 10-11): 34% (most) — Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 21, 2017

He has zero time in the pocket to make plays and wide receiver Dez Bryant isn’t playing all that well right now. There are limited weapons in this offense and Prescott isn’t used to facing so much pressure. A quarterback like Russell Wilson has just become accustomed to playing with pressure. Prescott hasn’t yet. As long as Smith is out of the lineup, Prescott is a risky fantasy play.

2. Russell Wilson is a magician

Speaking of Russell Wilson, this guy needs to be in the MVP conversation. He spent Monday night running for his life like he does every single game. The Seahawks have no running game which they really haven’t had since 2015. This offense is totally based on what Wilson can or can’t do.

Russell Wilson has accounted for 85% of the Seahawks offensive yards this season and been involved in 95% of their offensive touchdowns. Both lead the NFL. — Evan Kaplan (@EpKap) November 20, 2017

It’s incredible that Seattle only has 15 percent of their offensive yards that Wilson hasn’t been involved in. Could you imagine how bad this offense would be with a different quarterback? The offensive line would get a pocket passer killed. Seattle might not win more than about three or four games without him. He is locked in as a top-three quarterback for fantasy the rest of the way.

3. Is DeMarco Murray done?

It’s been a really difficult season for DeMarco Murray. He has only surpassed 60 rushing yards one time and we’re headed into Week 12. He’s coming off a game in Pittsburgh where he rushed eight times and gained 10 yards. He’s been floating his fantasy value through receptions as he is involved in the passing game. It’s not just a one-game sample size that Murray hasn’t been very explosive this season.

Just 4.3% (5-of-117) of DeMarco Murray's rushing attempts have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate for all running backs with 100 or more carries on the season. Even worse than Doug Martin. — Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 20, 2017

The Tennessee Titans are a team that needs an effective running game to be at their best. They can’t just keep giving Murray the ball if he can’t get the job done. Backup Derrick Henry turned seven carries into 32 yards in Pittsburgh and passed the eyeball test. Murray is a very risky start for fantasy that could blow up in your face if he doesn’t find the end zone.

4. Carson Wentz could be the 2018 version of Matt Ryan

This one saw its roots come from Heath Cummings, a fantasy football analyst for CBS. He claimed that Wentz would be one of the easiest regression candidates to peg for 2018 among quarterbacks. I didn’t fully buy into that idea because Wentz is one of the best quarterbacks in the league already and still has room to grow as he will enter his third season next year. Even though he’s a top five for the rest of 2017, he could see a dip in production now and headed into next season.

Among quarterbacks with 300 or more attempts in a season, Carson Wentz's 2017 touchdown rate is just outside the top 10 all time. pic.twitter.com/bBqfFYop22 — JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 21, 2017

Wentz has been fantastic this season and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is becoming more productive as the season has gone on. There’s no reason to panic on Wentz whatsoever, it’s just to realize that his touchdowns may not come at the same rate they have been so far this season.

5. Kenny Stills is a must-start receiver if Matt Moore starts

That’s not what owners of Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker want to hear but if Matt Moore takes over as the Miami quarterback, there might be a new receiver of choice for the Dolphins.

Kenny Stills has 27 targets, 18 catches, 330 yards and 3 TDs in 3 games where Matt Moore has appeared as the QB. Last season in 5 games together Stills had 30 targets, 19 receptions, 307 yards and 3 TDs. — Chris Meaney (@chrismeaney) November 22, 2017

To give those stats even more context –

In the six games in which Moore has thrown double-digit passes over the past two years, Stills has been the WR35, WR36, WR23, WR2, WR25 and WR3 with a TD in five of those games, averaging 21.8% of the targets. — Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 22, 2017

There’s not really a good explanation for why these two have such a chemistry together but that shouldn’t matter for fantasy players. Stills is worth putting on your bench to see how the situation shakes out. If the Dolphins hit a point where the season is over, they may mercifully pull Jay Cutler. Coach Adam Gase seems stubborn enough to keep him in as long as he’s healthy.

6. Saints running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are making history

If you’ve been playing them in your lineup or if you’ve had to play against them, you know that Ingram and Kamara have just been smashing everything in sight. The Saints are in the middle of reeling off win after win and those two backs are squarely in the center of it all. What you may not know is they are literally making history.

Most Team RB PPG (PPR) — Last 12 Years: 2017 Saints (without Peterson): 46.4 PPG

2011 Saints: 39.6 PPG

2013 Chiefs: 38.7 PPG

2006 Chargers: 37.0 PPG — Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 20, 2017

It stands to reason the efficiency they’re both displaying have to come to an end at some point. It’s simply stunning that both backs are not only startable but have been top-five since the Adrian Peterson trade. It’s hard enough to find an elite running back in fantasy. It’s incredible that there are two elite options in the same backfield.

7. Is there a new number one running back in Denver?

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Like I said, it’s so hard to come by a great running back these days in fantasy football. The position always sees a ton of injuries and ineffectiveness. There might be a chance to find a diamond in the rough this week that is under 30 percent owned on Yahoo.

Devontae Booker had season-highs in snaps (48), routes (28), touches (19) and yards from scrimmage (98) yesterday. Tide may have officially turned for him as they look towards next year. CJA is a clean zero dead $$ cut this offseason. — Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 20, 2017

The Broncos are dead in the water. Their defense isn’t playing well and their offense…well their offense just let Brock Osweiler play three games when they badly needed wins. Booker is still likely going to split snaps with C.J. Anderson and maybe even Jamaal Charles. It’s not really a dream spot. However, the involvement in the passing game could give him a nice floor and there is a ceiling there if he can find the end zone. At this point in the season, he is clearly worth putting on your bench to stash.

8. Corey Coleman could be a solid WR2

The young receiver has had a difficult career so far. He’s lost significant chunks of both seasons to injuries, including breaking his hand twice. He really hit the ground running in his return last week.

Corey Coleman (hand) returned in Week 11 and played on 93% of snaps, saw 34% of targets, and 50% (!) of #Browns air yards. Massive usage. — Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 20, 2017

All those ratios will play in fantasy for sure. While the six receptions for 80 yards may not seem like anything special, it’s important to keep in mind that he did this against the Jaguars. They’re the best defense in the league and the Browns can’t hang with them from a talent perspective. Coleman was highly impressive this past week and he could only get better moving forward. He should be a flex option at the very least for the rest of the season.

9. The Philadelphia backfield is a fantasy nightmare

The Eagles are apparently the Patriots-West because they now have four running backs involved in every game. Four!! It’s especially frustrating for Jay Ajayi owners. All last week, we heard noise about how he was ready for a big workload and how he was grasping the playbook in a hurry. Then Sunday night it was Kenjon Barner finding the end zone on the first drive. Ajayi finished with just seven carries and LeGarrette Blount got 13. It’s possible the blowout nature of the game contributed to the workload distribution but take a look at the halftime snap count.

Eagles halftime HB snap count:

LeGarrette Blount 14

Corey Clement 7

Jay Ajayi 5

Kenjon Barner 2

Out of 28 plays — Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) November 20, 2017

The Eagles were losing 9-7 at halftime so it would seem that the score didn’t affect the game plan in a negative way. It’s hard to count on big plays or touchdowns for the owners of any of these backs(not Barner). While Blount has had a better year than he’s getting credit for, Ajayi is the more talented back. If Philadelphia doesn’t see it that way, he could be no more than a flex for his owners.

10. I still don’t know what in the world Buffalo was thinking

The hot-button topic last week was the Buffalo Bills benching Tyrod Taylor in favor of Nathan Peterman. Frankly, it made no sense for a team that was in the playoff hunt to turn to a rookie of not the highest pedigree. Taylor is not an elite quarterback but he’s rock solid with some upside. Ask the 49ers how they feel about C.J. Beathard. Ask Miami how they feel about Jay Cutler. Taylor is a starter in the NFL and it isn’t his fault the defense has been getting crushed. The Bills got exactly what they deserved when they turned to Peterman.

Assuming Nathan Peterman doesn't make a re-appearance, this is the fourth-worst game by a QB (min. 14 attempts) ever, and worst in 40 years. pic.twitter.com/UwXTrJGAC2 — Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 19, 2017

Taylor has been reinstated as the starting quarterback for the Bills. He’s a good fantasy option heading towards the playoffs as long as you understand he could be benched at any time for no reason.

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