Until the referendum on European Union membership three years ago, I hadn’t realised quite how many English journalists had never visited Wales, Scotland or Ireland. Italy, France, Germany, endlessly but a short train journey or flight to the closest countries had somehow eluded them. My phone has buzzed with cautious questions from more of them in the past few weeks – despatched to the Newport West byelection, which takes place on Thursday, but never having crossed the Severn Bridge before – asking for tips knowing I spent a considerable chunk of my life there. Yes, it’s another country, but yes, they still speak English there.

If Labour does lose the seat, media reports will likely attempt to pin the blame on Corbyn. That would be an error

Newport West could stand in for much of the UK: there are wealthy areas and far poorer areas, and the economy has changed considerably, relying historically on its port, then steel-making, and now on service industry jobs. When I visited Bristol recently, locals there told me the housing crisis in Bristol meant that far more people were commuting from Newport, pushing up house prices in the Welsh town.

Paul Flynn was the MP for longer than I’ve been alive, and was immensely popular in the area: while I was at school, he championed the satirical group Goldie Lookin’ Chain and was mentioned on their album sleeves and at gigs. The band commemorated his death in February by penning a song that included the line: “Paul, you were the best, forever representing Newport West.” It was significant, as a teenager demonstrating against the Iraq war, to have the vocal support in your city of one of the minority of Labour MPs who opposed the conflict.

His are no small boots to fill, and much of the focus on the byelection has homed in on the possibility – albeit slim – that Labour may lose the seat. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives have historically threatened Labour’s majorities in Newport’s two seats, and a former leader of the Welsh branch of Ukip, Neil Hamilton, has thrown his hat in the ring in an attempt to capture the Eurosceptic vote. Newport closely resembles the entire country in terms of vote share, tipping 53% to 47% for Brexit in 2016.

If Labour does lose the seat, media reports will likely attempt to pin the blame on Jeremy Corbyn and the ambiguous stance the party has taken nationally on Brexit – backing leave but with a people’s vote left on the table. To blame Corbyn would be an error, however: the fault lies with Welsh Labour. In the 2017 general election, under the then leader Carwyn Jones, it publicly distanced itself from the national party, focusing instead on selling a reheated Miliband-style message to the electorate. In doing so, it missed the mood of the country fully, failing to listen to the campaigners who told them the national manifesto was hugely popular.

Support for Labour in south Wales dwindled between 1997 and 2015, largely because the region’s seats were seen by party headquarters as entirely safe and, it was claimed locally, could be used to parachute in candidates from London who had scarcely a concern or even rudimentary knowledge of the towns and cities they were chosen to represent. Economically, many of these places have been left to ruin, and few can see any material benefits that either the Welsh assembly or EU membership has brought. The fact that, across Wales, more people voted to leave the EU than to remain shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Newport has been described as a leave city, despite almost as many people voting to remain. This should be a reminder that contrary to much media coverage, opinion on the EU is not a dichotomy but a spectrum.

Brexit: Labour to back common market 2.0/Norway amendment for staying in single market – live news Read more

Labour has been castigated for its position on Brexit, but if the party wins Newport West, it will be because it accurately mirrors the mood across the country, and represents a far more nuanced balancing act than the Conservatives have managed. Arguing that parliament should respect the referendum result, although proposing a softer deal, makes sense – as does leaving the door open to go back to the people. Labour voters were as split as the rest of the country on whether we should leave the EU; and its position, agreed democratically at party conference, manages to hold together a number of divisions remarkably well.

At the weekend newspaper front pages warned that, with parliament in deadlock, the country may face its third national trip to the polls in as many years. If so, the Conservatives will struggle to present a united front on Brexit. This week, Newport West could send a signal that Labour’s dogged stance on Brexit may yet set the party up for an election victory.

• Dawn Foster is a Guardian columnist