In October of 2010, World Extreme Cagefighting, the premiere home of MMA’s lighter weight classes since 2001, merged with the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Fans and pundits alike were overjoyed by the acquisition, salivating at the prospect of seeing WEC superstars like Urijah Faber, Dominick Cruz and Benson Henderson enter the UFC’s famed octagon. At the time of the merger, the WEC had three champions: Anthony Pettis at lightweight; Cruz at bantamweight; and Jose Aldo at featherweight. And the UFC saw Aldo as head-and-shoulders above the other two.

Actions speak louder than words, and although UFC brass never explicitly said they saw Aldo as a bigger star or draw than Pettis or Cruz, their actions sure did. WEC 53 was the final event in the promotions history. It featured Cruz defending his bantamweight championship against Scott Jorgensen, and then-champ Henderson defending his lightweight championship against Pettis.

Pettis defeated Henderson in a thrilling contest to claim the belt, and in the process, he earned an immediate shot at the UFC lightweight championship. Of course, then-UFC champ Frankie Edgar fought then-challenger Gray Maynard to a draw, and they ended up having an immediate rematch, and Pettis’ title shot evaporated. Though he never got the title shot he was promised, the point is, as the final WEC champ, he earned a shot at the UFC championship. (Also, everything obviously eventually worked out for Pettis: he’s the current UFC lightweight champion.)

Things for Cruz were slightly different. His fight against Jorgensen simultaneously determined the final WEC bantamweight champion, and the inaugural UFC bantamweight champion. Cruz dominated Jorgensen from bell-to-bell, and walked out with WEC and UFC gold around his waist.

A month after WEC 53, on November 20, 2010, Jose Aldo was awarded the first-ever UFC featherweight championship.

That’s right. By being the final three WEC champions, Cruz and Pettis earned UFC title shots, while Aldo earned a UFC title. He didn’t have to fight for the belt, just let Dana White hand it to him. Clearly, the UFC had high hopes for Aldo, and so far, they have been proven right. Aldo made his first defense of the title he was gifted in April of 2011, beating Mark Hominick via unanimous decision to officially cement himself as the ruler of the featherweight division.

In a little less than three weeks, the UFC featherweight championship turns four years old. For just shy of the last four years, the division has been owned by Aldo. But now, just when it seemed he had cleared out the division of challengers, three men have risen with legitimate claims as the possible number one contender to his throne: Edgar, Cub Swanson and Conor McGregor. All three would be great opponents for Aldo, and more importantly, all three are (for very different reasons) deserving of a title shot. So, who should be Aldo’s next challenger?

The answer is both simple and complex, and can be found in the results of two upcoming fights: Edgar vs Swanson, the main event of UFC Fight Night 57, this month in Austin, TX; and McGregor vs Dennis Siver, the main event of UFC Fight Night 59, January in Boston, MA.

On paper, the man who deserves the title shot the most is Swanson. Since losing his UFC debut three years ago, he’s won six straight fights, with four of those victories coming by way of knockout; twice he has won Knockout of the Night, and twice he’s won Fight of the Night; he main evented a card for the first time in his UFC career; and his fists have burned impressive images into fan’s minds, like sending George Roop’s mouth piece flying across the octagon with a knockout punch, or hitting Charles Oliveira so hard that it took the Brazilian a few seconds to realize he should fall down.

For Swanson, a win against Edgar would be his seventh straight, and the signature victory of his career. Despite all that, there is one big argument against Swanson fighting for the title next: he’s already fought against, and lost to, Aldo. Back in June of 2009, the two squared off in a number one contender’s fight for the WEC featherweight championship. Aldo won in an incredible eight seconds, knocking Swanson out with a flying double knee.

But that was over five years ago. Swanson is a completely different fighter, and what did we really learn in eight seconds? A rematch between Aldo and Swanson would be a striking fans dream. If Swanson beats Edgar in a few weeks, he would have undoubtably earned a title shot based on his work inside the octagon. But would an Aldo vs Swanson main event sell on pay-per-view? Maybe.

Would an Aldo vs McGregor main event sell on pay-per-view? Absolutely. McGregor didn’t make his UFC debut until April of last year, but since then, he’s been a supernova of popularity and success. He’s 4-0 in the UFC, with all but one of those wins coming via knockout, but the area he shines the brightest in is outside the octagon. McGregor was blessed with the gift of gab, and his magnetic personality has fans either loving him or hating him, but none of them are indifferent. Fans would rather pay to see McGregor challenge Aldo than to see Swanson challenge him. If McGregor beats Siver, he wouldn’t have done as much inside the octagon as Swanson has, but it would be enough to make him a worthy title challenger, in addition to his ability to sell a fight with his mouth.

If McGregor beats Siver, and Edgar beats Swanson, McGregor should get the title shot. But what if he loses? Well, that opens the doors for the former lightweight champ to get a rematch of his own with Aldo. In February of last year, Edgar dropped down to featherweight to challenge Aldo for the title. He lost a close decision, and some even called for Edgar to get an immediate rematch. He did not, but if he can beat Aldo, and Siver can beat McGregor, the rematch he wants should finally be his.

As you can see, the answer to the question of who should be Jose Aldo’s next title challenger is simultaneously simple and complex. But the path is clear. If Cub Swanson beats Frankie Edgar, the shot should be his. But if Swanson loses, and Conor McGregor beats Dennis Siver, the title shot should go to the brash Irishman. But if Swanson and McGregor both lose, the title shot should go to the former lightweight king, Edgar.

In the end though, it may not matter who fights Aldo. He’s not just going to hand over the belt that was handed over to him, and right now, it doesn’t look like anyone is going to be able to take it from him either.

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