The polls have varied significantly heading into Tuesday’s special Senate election in Alabama. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses why turnout is so difficult to predict and how different groups of voters could affect the outcome.

The crew also assesses how Sen. Al Franken’s resignation has shaped the political conversation surrounding sexual misconduct allegations — and what to expect as more cases emerge.

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The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Monday evenings, with occasional special episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.