BEREA, Ohio - President Donald Trump trails in four key Great Lakes states he won in 2016, indicating the extent to which he’ll have to entice wavering voters - especially women - to swing his way before November, January polling across Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin found.

Support for a still-to-be-determined Democratic candidate was within a few points of reaching a majority in each state, including leads of more than a dozen points over Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, according to the Great Lakes Poll, released Wednesday by Baldwin Wallace University’s Community Research Institute.

Democratic support was softest in Ohio, where the generic Democrat led Trump just 44.3% to 39.4%, with the rest undecided.

BW, in partnership with Ohio Northern and Oakland universities, polled more than 1,000 registered voters in each state from Jan. 8-20. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 to 3.3 percentage points for the statewide results in each state, higher for sub groups. Among the findings:

Women could decide the election, as their support for a Democrat over Trump ranged from 11.2 percentage points in Ohio to 26.1 points in Michigan. The preference among men was within the margin of error in three states and 4.4 points in the Democrat’s favor in Pennsylvania.

The economy is the No. 1 issue in Ohio and two other states, identified so by 31.4% in Ohio, 29.2% in Pennsylvania and 26.7% in Michigan.

Health care issues lead concerns in Wisconsin (30.6%), the lone Midwest or Northeast state that did not expand Medicaid under Obamacare

BW, experienced in Ohio polling, chose to concentrate on the four states for their new Great Lakes Poll to learn more about voters in states regionally that voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2012 and then flipped to the Republican Trump in 2016. Trump scored narrow victories of less than a percentage point each in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but won Ohio by 8.1 percentage points.

Tom Sutton, a professor of political science and director of BW’s Community Research Institute, said the views of women were particularly interesting.

“The difference in women’s lack of support for Donald Trump will be critical to the chances of a Democratic nominee winning these states. This follows the trend of women supporting Democratic candidates in the 2018 congressional midterms that resulted in a Democratic majority being elected to the House,” Sutton said in releasing the results.

This was the first of four Great Lakes polls that will be conducted this year.

Throughout Wednesday, cleveland.com will be publishing a series of stories focusing on these key issues and others. You can find links to all of the stories here.

Women voters in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin oppose Donald Trump by wide margins, Baldwin Wallace University's Great Lakes poll found.Rich Exner, cleveland.com

State-by-state polling

The polling shows Trump’s support has slipped, at least at this early stage of the election year and before it is known who the Democratic nominee will be. Asked if the election “were held today," the unknown Democratic candidate led Trump:

47.5% to 34.1% in Wisconsin, with 18.4% undecided.

46.8% to 33.9% in Michigan, with 19.3% undecided.

47.1% to 37.3% in Pennsylvania, with 15.6% undecided.

44.3% to 39.4% in Ohio, with 16.3% undecided.

Yet large numbers of undecided leave ample room for Trump’s support to grow, said Lauren Copeland, associate director of the Community Research Institute at Baldwin Wallace University.

“It looks like the Democrats have this huge lead in all the states, including Ohio, but if you take into account the people who are undecided, the race is a tossup in all four states,” Copeland said.

A BW Ohio poll a month before the 2016 election showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump, 43.2% to 34.4% with a substantial number undecided at the time. In the election, Clinton received almost exactly that support (43.6%), but Trump did much better (51.7%) in the state.

The pollsters with this year’s Great Lakes Poll attempted to identify how committed the voters were to their vote.

For instance, ranges from 44.7% in Ohio to 49.1% in Michigan responded: “I am almost certain to vote against Donald Trump no matter whom the Democrats nominate for president." Yet far fewer - ranging from 29% in Michigan to 34.6% in Ohio - said they were “almost certain to vote for Donald Trump."

Better than 70% of registered voters in each state said they were “very motivated” to vote in November. Those “not motivated at all” ranged from 2.7% to 5.5% in the four states.

The economy is the top issue among voters in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while health care is the No. 1 issue in Wisconsin, according to Baldwin Wallace University's Great Lakes poll.Rich Exner, cleveland.com

The Democratic field

In the Democratic field, former Vice President Joe Biden leads in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping the field in Wisconsin, the polling said. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is third in each state behind Biden and Sanders.

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has campaigned little and has not been part of the debates but has begun a high-profile, high-dollar advertising campaign, is running fourth in each state.

Here are the top four in each state, including thoughts of self-identified Democrats and independents who said they lean Democratic:

Ohio: Biden (32.1%), Sanders (20.8%), Warren (10.7%) and Bloomberg (10.1%).

Michigan: Biden (27.0%), Sanders (21.6%), Warren (13.6%) and Bloomberg (9.1%).

Pennsylvania: Biden (31.3%), Sanders (20.5%), Warren (11.5%) and Bloomberg (9.1%).

Wisconsin: Sanders (28.4%), Biden (21.8%), Warren (14.7%), Bloomberg (8.4%).

Joe Biden leads polling in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Bernie Sanders leads in Wisconsin, according to the Great Lakes poll released by Baldwin Wallace University.Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Too left or right?

Most people polled said the Democratic Party has “moved too far to the left.”

But, illustrating strong opinions about the political divide in the country, nearly as many respondents said the Republican Party “has moved too far to the right.”

Here’s how the responses broke down:

Saying that the Democratic Party is now too far left: Ohio (54.3%), Pennsylvania (53.2%), Wisconsin (51.1%) and Michigan (49.8%).

Saying that the Republican Party is now too far right: Wisconsin (51.1%), Michigan (49.1%), Pennsylvania (48.3%) and Ohio (47.6%).

Most of the distaste toward Republicans is by Democrats, and vice-versa, but sizable shares of independents (close to 50% in each state) voiced such opinions about one party or the other.

For example, among Ohio independents, 48.6% said they agreed that the Democratic Party was too far left, and on a separate question 47.9% said the Republican Party was too far right.

Other findings

Among other results:

More people disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration issues than approve by margins of just 2.3 points in Ohio (48.8% to 46.5%) and 4.5 points in Pennsylvania (49.1% to 44.6%) to wider margins of 11.7 points in Wisconsin (54% to 42.3%) and 12.4 points in Michigan (52.6% to 40.2%).

Majorities in each state favor deciding the presidential elections by popular vote instead of through the Electoral College: 53.6% to 30.5% in Ohio, 53.8% to 31.2% in Wisconsin, 53.7% to 28% in Pennsylvania, and 54.1% to 28.3% in Michigan.

And majorities distrust social media as a news source. Saying they trust social media news “not too much” or “not at all” were 59.5% in Ohio, 59.8% in Pennsylvania, 61.1% in Michigan and 66.2% in Wisconsin.

There is a general distrust in the news found on social media, according Baldwin Wallace University's Great Lakes Poll.Rich Exner, cleveland.com

How the poll was conducted

The survey was conducted online among self-identified registered voters in Michigan (1,023), Ohio (1,031), Pennsylvania (1,037) and Wisconsin (1,038) using Qualtrics, a firm that aggregates samples for scientific surveys. BW said the poll included quotas for age, education, and gender for each state based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, plus a mix of urban and rural voters to make sure groups were properly represented.

There will be a second poll in the spring. BW hopes to time that poll to when the Democratic nominee becomes clear. Plus additional Great Lakes polls are planned for September and October.

BW, which has been doing polling in Ohio for several years, is expanding to the other states with financial help and academic input from Ohio Northern University in Ada and Oakland University in Rochester Hills, Michigan.

Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner. Find data-related stories at cleveland.com/datacentral.

Read more:

See cleveland.com’s comprehensive coverage of the 2020 Great Lakes Poll

Women breaking away from President Trump, could be deciding factor in 2020 presidential race

Poll of Great Lakes voters shows good news for Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders

It’s the economy, voters in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania say about the 2020 election: BW poll

Should popular vote replace electoral college? Voters solidly in favor of move

Immigration was a key issue in 2016: What do voters think about it today?

Voters distrust social media as source of campaign news, worry about foreign interference