Three launches in eight days point to ulterior motive amid strained relations between its neighbours and Washington

The series of short-range missile tests by North Korea over the last eight days could be an attempt by Pyongyang to exploit strained US-Japan-South Korea relations, analysts have said.

The latest launches, at about 3am on Friday from North Korea’s east coast, involved the firing of two unidentified projectiles into the Sea of Japan. They follow two tests in the past eight days.

“Maybe North Korea wants to try to push the US back to the negotiating table with some kind of proposal for weakening sanctions,” said Yoichi Shimada, professor of international politics at Japan’s Fukui prefectual university. However, he believed Donald Trump would not waiver on economic sanctions, “despite all the friendly talk about Kim”.

Trump's $300bn China tariff threat sends markets into tailspin Read more

The US has been trying to promote unity between South Korea and Japan, its two biggest allies in Asia, in the face of both an unpredictable North Korea and an increasingly assertive and militarily powerful China. The defence ministers of the US, Japan and South Korea held their twelfth joint ministerial meeting at the beginning of June, but relations between Seoul and Tokyo have only deteriorated since.

On Friday morning, Japan confirmed it would take South Korea off a “white list” of preferred trading partners, the latest escalation of a trade spat kicked off by historical grievances that date back to the second world war. Japan and South Korea do have an intelligence-sharing pact, but it is unclear how this is being impacted by the current political tensions.

“South Korea and Japan are not able to put together a common position, which brings into question the ability of the US to manage north-east Asia,” said Garren Mulloy, professor of international relations at Daito Bunka university in Japan.

Pyongyang has suggested the tests are a response to this month’s joint US-South Korean military exercises – something it has long condemned as “invasion rehearsals” – but Shimada points out the drills have already been scaled back.

The Great Successor by Anna Fifield review – the secrets of Kim Jong-un Read more

Mulloy sees North Korea’s actions as an attempt to exploit “obvious weaknesses in the US-Japan-South Korea relationship … So Chairman Kim is hoping to make more trouble and demonstrate that he can act with impunity”.

Adding to the Seoul-Tokyo tensions, the US president has been critical of the US-Japan security alliance, suggesting its Asian ally should pay more to support the American military stationed on its soil, repeating complaints he made during his election campaign.

Trump also dismissed concerns about the latest tests, tweeting they were “short-range missiles” and “very standard”. However, such short-range missiles “are obviously a threat to Japan”, said Shimada, noting that it makes much of the country a potential target.

Shimada laments the “defence-only position” of Japan, in line with its pacifist constitution, adding, “and into the bargain has prohibited itself from intelligence operations of the kind Israel has used to damage Iran’s nuclear weapons programme”.

Japan and South Korea have both recently-deployed missile defence systems based on US military technology, but analysts say they are far from failsafe and North Korea’s capabilities are steadily growing.

The American and Japanese militaries have recognised the threat and are now cooperating more closely than ever on missile defence, with Japan’s air self-defence force recently moving its headquarters next to its US counterpart at the Yokota naval base, south of Tokyo.

But as long as tensions between the allies persist, Pyongyang looks unlikely to shift from its current strategy.

“North Korea is looking for a window of opportunity, a crack in the door,” said Mulloy. “It is always focused on the US – it’s never really about Japan and South Korea, even when it looks like it is. Everything the DPRK wants is to be treated like a great power by the great power.”



