When Paul Ryan abruptly announced earlier this year that he was stepping down as both Speaker and Congressman, he ostensibly hoped to make the transition as smooth as possible by publicly anointing an heir. In April, he went on Meet the Press to give a ringing endorsement to Kevin McCarthy, the Majority Leader and his deputy, saying that he fully anticipated handing him the gavel by the end of the year. At the time, Ryan also noted that Majority Whip Steve Scalise agreed that McCarthy was “the right guy to step up”—a statement that reportedly stunned Scalise and his allies, who were neither notified nor consulted about the endorsement. “That’s not the way to run things, especially with a member of your leadership team,” a Scalise ally told The Hill at the time.

Not only did his announcement do nothing to endear him to Scalise’s supporters, it failed even to staunch the talk of a shadow race between the House’s No. 2 and No. 3. In fact, it seemed to have the opposite effect; though Scalise offered his support to McCarthy after Ryan’s interview, saying that he would not run against him, Politico reported on Friday that his actions suggest otherwise. Scalise has reportedly kept busy by traveling the country with Mike Pence for fund-raisers, raising millions of dollars—including former whip McCarthy, his staffers seem fond of pointing out—and boosting his national profile in the process. He’s hired John Boehner’s former campaign director, leading to fresh rounds of speculation over his future plans. And most visibly, he’s also begun tacking further to the right politically, making him more palatable to the hardliners inclined to support Freedom Caucus leader Jim Jordan in his potential long-shot bid. “[There are] tangible signs that Trump’s policies are working,” he said during a recent Fox News appearance, putting Republicans’ chances of maintaining House control at “better than 50-50.”

Outwardly, Scalise has continued to dodge when asked whether he’s angling for a leadership bid. “Kevin and I are both friends,” he said at a recent fund-raiser for G.O.P. Representative Tom Reed. “And I think Kevin would tell you the same thing that I’m about to tell you: we are very focused right now on making sure that we do our job. Because if we worry about what our titles will be, a few months from now, Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker by the time the counting is done.” But as his supporters note, even if Scalise does not initially run, neither the relatively moderate McCarthy nor the Tea Party darling Jordan are likely to get the 218 votes needed to win the gavel outright, allowing him to step in at the last minute as a compromise candidate—much like a reluctant Ryan did in 2016. “My point to Steve would be: you’re in no different position than you were before. You already said you weren’t going to run against Kevin” one Republican lawmaker told the Hill earlier this year. “Let it all play out. If he can’t get it, you’re in the same spot you were before.”

Ironically, if Scalise does manage to beat out McCarthy for the job, he may wind up in a worse spot: the speakership is a notoriously terrible job—one that burned out both Ryan and his predecessor. The situation has only deteriorated under Donald Trump, whose stewardship has permanently polarized Congress, and who seems incapable of working in tandem with anyone in his own cabinet, much less anyone in Republican leadership. And of course, there’s the very real possibility that Democrats will regain control of the House, eliminating Scalise’s dream job altogether. With that possibility looming in the distance, Scalise’s political machinations—which have reportedly unnerved McCarthy supporters—seem potentially pointless to G.O.P. operatives, who would have preferred a new Speaker sooner rather than later. “Members won’t follow a lame duck, he’ll have no leverage to cut deals,” a Republican groused to Axios back in April, “and the last thing they need in this environment is six months of palace intrigue and everyone stabbing everyone else in the back.” Unfortunately for Republicans, it seems that’s exactly what they’ll get.