01:22 Hurricane Teddy Bringing Big Waves to New England Coast Hurricane Teddy is bringing heavy rain and big waves as it moves toward Atlantic Canada.

At a Glance Category 4 Hurricane Matthew is hammering Haiti with high winds, heavy rain, surge flooding.

Hurricane warnings have been expanded into the northwest Bahamas.

Tropical storm and hurricane watches are now posted in Florida's East Coast.

The threat to the entire Southeast U.S. coast is growing.

The threat for the Northeast still remains somewhat uncertain.

Regardless, large swells, coastal flooding and beach erosion is a certainty. This is an old forecast article. Please see our new forecast article .

Hurricane Matthew is threading the gap between Haiti and Cuba, but parts of eastern Cuba and the Bahamas are next in line for hurricane force and tropical storm force winds. Hurricane watches have been expanded for the East Coast of Florida.

(MORE: Hurricane Central | Interactive Storm Tracker Map )

Matthew is increasingly likely to have significant impacts along the Southeast U.S. coast later this week. Those impacts may start to arrive in Florida as early as Thursday, potentially spreading northeast to coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Friday into the weekend.

All interests in the coastal Southeast states should continue to monitor the forecast closely and make necessary preparations for a hurricane.

(MORE: U.S. Impacts From Matthew )

Hurricane Matthew's eye came ashore in the western Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti near the town of Les Anglais around 7 AM EDT, according to the National Hurricane Center. The eye is now moving toward the eastern tip of Cuba.

Matthew was the first Category 4 Haiti landfall since Hurricane Cleo in 1964, and only the fourth such intensity or stronger hurricane to track within 65 nautical miles of southern Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula since the 1960s , according to NOAA's Best Tracks Database.

A hurricane watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from Golden Beach, Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County line in Florida. Lake Okeechobee has also been placed into a hurricane watch.

A tropical storm watch has also been issued from the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys northward to Golden Beach, Florida.

Hurricane warnings were expanded Tuesday morning to include the northwest Bahamas, including Nassau and Freeport. Hurricane warnings now include the entire Bahamas chain, as well as eastern Cuba and Haiti.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_ww1_1280x720.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_ww1_1280x720.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_ww1_1280x720.jpg 800w" > Current Watches/Warnings

Latest Status

Hurricane Matthew is moving northward as a strong and extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane, with its eyewall currently hammering eastern Cuba and western portions of Haiti.

(MORE: Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar )

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_storm_info_1280x720.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_storm_info_1280x720.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_storm_info_1280x720.jpg 800w" > Current Storm Status

Matthew's tropical storm-force wind field (at least 39 mph sustained winds) extends up to 175 miles from the center, and hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg 800w" > Current Wind Speed and Gusts

Peak Impact Timing

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next couple of days, but Matthew will likely remain a powerful hurricane the next several days.

Here is the approximate timing of the worst wind and surge impacts, coinciding with the nearest passage of the eyewall of Matthew.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_swath_1280x720.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_swath_1280x720.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_swath_1280x720.jpg 800w" > Projected Path and Intensity

Haiti/Dominican Republic: Through Tuesday

Through Tuesday Eastern Cuba: Late Tuesday through early Wednesday

Late Tuesday through early Wednesday Southeast & central Bahamas: Tuesday night through early Thursday

Tuesday night through early Thursday Northwest Bahamas: Wednesday night through Thursday night

Wednesday night through Thursday night Southeastern/Eastern Florida: Late Thursday through early Friday

Late Thursday through early Friday Northeastern Florida : Early Friday through Friday Evening

Small, subtle changes in the path of the eyewall, sometimes not resolvable until hours before the passage, can make a large difference on wind impact.

Note that even though certain locations may not be in the cone of uncertainty, impacts will be spread well beyond the edge of the cone.

(MORE: Facts/Myths About the Hurricane Cones of Uncertainty )

Caribbean Impacts

Hispañola (including Haiti) will see the worst wind and surge impacts from Matthew Tuesday. Impacts are beginning to wane in Hispaõla, but mudslides may continue for days.

Eastern Cuba will see conditions steadily go downhill Tuesday evening, making preparations difficult, there.

(NEWS: Latest Caribbean Impacts )

Over a foot of rainfall from Matthew will trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. In Haiti, in particular, heavy rainfall could be catastrophic. Here are the latest rainfall projections from the National Hurricane Center:

Southern Haiti, southwest Dominican Republic: 15 to 25 inches, locally up to 40 inches

Northwestern Haiti, eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, locally up to 20 inches

Eastern Jamaica: 4 to 6 inches, locally up to 12 inches

The Bahamas: 8 to 12 inches, locally up to 15 inches

Turks and Caicos: 2 to 5 inches, locally up to 8 inches

Northeast Haiti, rest of the Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches

Western Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches, locally up to 3 inches

Upper Florida Keys and much of the Florida East Coast: 4 to 7 inches, locally up to 10 inches

Middle to Lower Florida Keys: 1 to 3 inches, locally 5 inches.

(MORE: Haiti's Deadly Hurricane History )

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL44_1280x720.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL44_1280x720.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL44_1280x720.jpg 800w" > Forecast Rainfall

On the current forecast track, here are the latest storm surge forecasts from the NHC, above normal tide levels:

The Bahamas: 10 to 15 feet

South coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz: 7 to 11 feet

South coast of Haiti: 7 to 10 feet

North coast of Cuba east of Camaguey: 4 to 6 feet

Gulf of Gonave (Haiti): 3 to 5 feet

Jamaica: 2 to 4 feet

South coast of the Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 feet

Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line: 3 to 5 feet

It's worth noting this forecast for the Bahamas is on the order of storm surge witnessed during Hurricane Joaquin almost exactly one year ago, only for, potentially, the entire chain, rather than just the central and southeast Bahamas.

(FLASHBACK: Hurricane Joaquin 2015 )

Battering waves will ride atop the storm surge, and coastal flooding from large waves may begin well in advance and ahead of Matthew's center.

This storm surge will also limit rainfall runoff in some places, aggravating flooding, especially in coastal locations where swollen rivers cannot drain.

Hurricane-force winds, with peak timing as outlined above, will lead to widespread structural damage, particularly to poorly-built structures, numerous downed trees and widespread power outages. Due to wet ground, trees will be even more susceptible to being toppled.

One possible analog to Matthew is Hurricane Hazel , which swept through Haiti in October 1954, claiming 400-1,000 lives from severe flash flooding and landslides.

U.S. Threat

Forecast guidance began to trend Monday toward a closer pass of Matthew to the Southeast coast, from Florida to North Carolina. This trend has continued into Tuesday.

The reason for this is stronger high pressure aloft persisting over the western Atlantic and East Coast of the U.S. helping to trap Matthew closer to the coast.

(NEWS: Southeast U.S. on Alert )

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/matthew-steering-us-3oct16.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0" srcset="https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/matthew-steering-us-3oct16.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 400w, https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/matthew-steering-us-3oct16.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 800w" > Upper-level steering factors in play for Matthew later this week.

(MORE: Hurricane Central | Interactive Storm Tracker Map )

Matthew is expected to still be a formidable hurricane through at least its journey near or over the Southeast into the weekend.

The severity of any direct impacts (particularly from wind) will depend on how close the center of Matthew moves near the southeastern states.

Right now, it appears at least tropical storm-force winds are a good bet from most of Florida's East Coast to at least North Carolina's Outer Banks.

Uncertainty is best summarized by the 5:00 p.m. forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify.

The eyewall of Matthew could get close enough to shore that hurricane-force winds could come ashore on the Florida Eas Coast. That is becoming an increasing possibility from eastern Florida to the Carolinas.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL26_1280x720.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL26_1280x720.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL26_1280x720.jpg 800w" > Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities (Chance of sustained winds reaching or exceeding 74 mph. ) (Chance of sustained winds reaching or exceeding 74 mph. )

In addition, storm surge flooding and rainfall flooding will also be threats in at least parts of these areas, depending on the exact track of Matthew. The current forecast for storm surge inundation from North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line is 3 to 5 feet. Waves will enhance water damage along the coast.

Matthew will then accelerate northeast this weekend. While, again, the exact path will determine impacts, at least a chance of tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain is in play up the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast, eventually into Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada.

Even if Matthew stays well offshore any part of the East Coast, dangerous swells, coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely, particularly from the Virginia Tidewater south late this week into the weekend.

All interests along the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Matthew closely. Now is a good time to make sure you're prepared before the storm. Are you #HurricaneStrong ?

Check back with us frequently at weather.com for any important forecast updates.

Storm Reports, Recap

George F.L. Charles Airport on St. Lucia picked up 9.21 inches of rain Wednesday . On the south side of the island, Hewanorra Int'l Airport picked up 13.19 inches of rain in just 12 hours from 8 p.m. Wednesday through 8 a.m. Thursday , according to the Antigua Met Service.

A wind gust to 89 mph was reported in St. Pierre, Martinique, Wednesday evening. Some stations are elevated at 50 to 100 feet. Sustained winds of 39 mph were reported on the island of Barbados.

Matthew strengthened to a rare Category 5 late Friday evening, becoming the first Category 5 Atlantic basin hurricane since Hurricane Felix in early September 2007.

(MORE: Category 5 Hurricanes Prior to Matthew )

Hurricane Matthew became the fifth hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season early Thursday afternoon.

According to Colorado State University tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Matthew became the lowest latitude Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record (beating the old record set by Ivan in 2004) .

Some outer rainbands triggered flash flooding in Jamaica Sunday, hundreds of miles away from the center of Matthew.

Interestingly Sunday night, a fortunately-placed NOAA buoy sampled Matthew's eye , providing valuable information for meteorologists.