Berlusconi, populism or neither: who will claim Italy at the polls?

Europe’s appetite for populist movements will be tested on Sunday as Italians vote in a national election that threatens to plunge the eurozone’s third-largest economy into political chaos.

The results of the vote, which are expected to be announced early on Monday, could re-establish Silvio Berlusconi, the conservative former prime minister and billionaire forced out of office in 2011 under a cloud of scandal, as the dominant force in Italian politics.

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They might also reveal a surge in support for Italy’s two main populist parties, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right La Lega, which are both Eurosceptic, anti-free trade, pro-Kremlin and opposed to mandatory vaccinations despite Italy being hit by a measles outbreak.

La Lega, previously known as the Northern League, openly embraces an “Italians first” ideology while Five Star has focused on corruption, but their ascent in recent years from fringe parties to significant players in Italian politics has underscored the depth of anger within the electorate.

The centre-left, led by the former prime minister Matteo Renzi, sought on Friday to make a last-ditch appeal for moderation, calling on the significant number of undecided voters – about 30% – to “think carefully”.

The weak Italian economy, which has improved since the sovereign debt crisis but is still struggling under an unemployment rate of more than 11%, and Italy’s role at the forefront of the migration crisis have emerged as the prevailing election issues.

Quick guide Parties in the Italian election Show Hide Forza Italia Led by four-time prime minister Silvio Berlusconi (although he himself cannot stand owing to a tax fraud conviction). Wants to introduce a “parallel currency” for domestic use, keeping the euro for international trade. Other policies include: a single “flat rate” income tax for companies and individuals; abolishing housing, inheritance and road tax; doubling the minimum pension; introducing a minimum income of €1,000 a month for all; blocking new immigrant arrivals. Northern League Led by Matteo Salvini. Promises to introduce a parallel currency and a flat tax for all at 15%, as well as allowing earlier retirement, repatriating 100,000 illegal immigrants a year and reopening Italy’s brothels. Brothers of Italy Led by Giorgia Meloni. A southern equivalent of the Northern League with neo-fascist roots; policies broadly similar. Five Star Movement Led by Luigi Di Maio. Proposes a minimum monthly income of €780; raising the budget deficit; repealing 400 “useless” laws, including labour and pension reforms to allow earlier retirement and make firing harder; raising taxes on energy companies; improving relations with Russia.

Democratic party Led by Matteo Renzi. Proposes an increase in minimum wage; negotiating to abolish the EU’s fiscal compact (which imposes stiff budget cuts on high-debt countries); raising the budget deficit to 3% of GDP so as to cut taxes and increase investment. Free and Equal Led by Piero Grasso. New party uniting smaller leftwing groups. Proposes to repeal labour and pension reforms and boost public spending. Photograph: Simona Granati - Corbis/Corbis News

The campaigns have been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants, an act described by the nationalist perpetrator as revenge for the murder of an Italian woman, allegedly by a migrant.

In his final public rally on Thursday in Rome’s Piazza di Pietra, Berlusconi – flanked by his main coalition partners, the far-right leaders Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni – said he was “relatively satisfied” with how the campaign had gone and expressed sympathy for Renzi, who is expected to have a dismal showing on Sunday.

Raffaele Fitto, however, another coalition partner, was caught on an open microphone saying Five Star could sweep the south, a must-win region for Berlusconi.

According to the last opinion polls published before a media blackout two weeks ago, Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition has about 36% of voter support, followed by about 28% for the Five Star Movement and 24% for Renzi’s Democratic party.

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Under Italy’s new and complicated election law, none of the major parties or coalitions appear to have enough support to win an outright majority. Without a clear winner, the parties will have to try to cobble together a workable parliamentary majority, although each refused to work with one another in the days leading up to the vote.

Berlusconi, who is 81, is ineligible to serve as prime minister because of a previous tax conviction, but he promised this week to appoint Antonio Tajani, the president of the European parliament, to serve as premier if his Forza Italia party wins on Sunday.

The election has been bad news for hundreds of thousands of migrants in Italy, as the far-right parties have promised increasingly tough – and unrealistic – measures to deal with the crisis, including mass deportations.

People have been lined up in front of police stations in Sicily and around the country for weeks, waiting to renew their residence permits and fearful of what awaits them. “Lately, they come in my office more and more frequently, almost every day,” said the Palermo-based lawyer Gaetano Pasqualino.

The migrants come mainly from the Maghreb region of north Africa and have been living in Italy for at least three years. They are afraid of being forced to leave the country.

Slah Msalem, 21, originally from Zarzis in Tunisia, arrived on the Italian island of Lampedusa in February 2011 as an unaccompanied minor. “I know something could change from Monday,” he said. “I know it will not happen right away, maybe months will pass, but it will happen ... I’m afraid of being sent back to Tunisia.”