Janelle Saffin could have been forgiven for eschewing the opportunity to stand for the seat of Lismore at this weekend’s New South Wales election.

After a political career spanning nearly 30 years, including consecutive defeats at the last two federal elections, winning the seat for Labor was going to require a Rocky-like resurrection. But as she sat at home in the aftermath of the 2017 floods that devastated Lismore’s town centre, the 64-year-old realised there was still fire in the belly.

“I sat watching as, month after month, there was no funding to rebuild the Lismore CBD and thought, ‘If I was the local member, can you imagine me staying silent on that issue?’,” the former federal member for Page says.

“I thought, ‘OK, we need someone with a strong voice banging on the door of Sydney saying, ‘What about us?’. But it won’t be easy.”

Lismore in northern NSW is shaping into a three-way battle between the Nationals, Greens and Labor. Photograph: Andrea Falletta/The Guardian

Labor is tipped to come in third place after the Greens and the Nationals in the race for the two pivotal, marginal seats of Lismore and Ballina in the NSW northern rivers region. But, as any pollster will attest, underestimating the underdog is a risky business. Saffin is a strong candidate, and Labor’s best chance at winning a northern rivers seat.

The political stalwart from Labor’s left faction has a reputation for local advocacy dating back to her days as the organiser of a local women’s refuge. And she has made a direct pitch to Lismore’s large working class over the past 12 months, pledging to get more resources for local schools and Tafe colleges, and to secure funding for roads and the Lismore base hospital.

“People know that I’m pretty fiery and feisty and I get things done,” she says. “If they want action they’re going to vote for someone who can deliver.”

Saffin has put herself forward as the experienced choice in contrast to her two main rivals for the seat, both of whom are new to politics. They, in turn, have suggested that “fresh energy” is needed, with one unaligned political opponent reportedly describing her publicly as “a bit long in the tooth”.

“People were doing that deliberately as part of a strategy … so I stated publicly that it was not only ageist but sexist,” she says.

“[Retiring Lismore MP] Thomas George was older than me while he was a sitting member. I’m the same age as Malcolm Turnbull, and I’m younger than [former state and federal MP] Tony Windsor, who everyone seemed to like so much.

“No one would have described me in that way if I was a man.”

Byron Bay could be a tough place for Labor to win due to the party’s perceived pro-development stance. Photograph: Andrea Falletta/The Guardian

While Saffin battles sexist attitudes in Lismore, Labor’s candidate for Ballina, Asren Pugh, is seeking to escape his party’s pro-development past.

A key issue in the seat is the proposed West Byron housing development, a plan for 650 housing lots built on the outskirts of Byron Bay that has drawn strong community opposition.

Pugh, a former community organiser with the Australian Conservation Foundation, has strongly opposed the development, but his party has been repeatedly criticised by the Greens for its role in the early stages of the proposal.

“In no way was West Byron initiated by Labor,” the first-time candidate says, bristling. “It was first identified by Byron council as an urban release area in the early 90s. We were 100% against the land being rezoned by the Coalition in 2014.”

Pugh will not only need to convince a significant number of Greens voters that his party is no longer pro-development, but will also need to win votes from the Nationals in the more conservative suburbs of the Ballina shire to the south.

It will be a tricky balancing act, but if the Coalition suffers a significant swing against it and the Greens also see a drop in their primary vote, there’s a chance this rookie candidate and his battle-hardened colleague in Lismore will find themselves sitting side-by-side in Macquarie Street.