In a blog that lacked few of the usual trappings of diplomatic reticence that often shroud their work the IMF warned yesterday that:

The global economic recovery has so far been resilient to the pronounced swings in financial markets—but investors and policy makers shouldn’t take too much comfort from that fact. They should remain attuned to the risks associated with rising interest rates, elevated market volatility, and increasing protectionism. The road ahead may well be bumpy.

You can argue that the IMF is seeking to retain the status quo.

And you can also argue that the IMF is inherently anti-protectionist.

You can even argue that this is the DC elite arguing against Trump in one of the ways that they can.

And in all cases you might be right.

But that's not really the point here. Whatever the motives of those posting this blog might be there is a simple fact that they have simply stated, which is that the transition from what has been to what might be is going to be tough, uncertain, and will impose real risk as to outcomes, many of which are unpredictable.

I readily embrace change. I want change, in fact. The idea that we should move from a world still built in no small part around the Washington Consensus that the IMF did so much to promote at one time is appropriate. That consensus has failed. 2008 proved that. But the direction of travel in which we are headed is wrong. We are not heading for a world of greater accountability, more robust fiscal policy, stronger democracy, greater international cooperation in the face of the challenges that exist and the creation of greater participation in decision making processes by those impacted by decisions. We are heading in the opposite direction of all those things right now.

The IMF is right to warn that there may be trouble ahead. What is deeply troubling is that we might pay a high price for no gain and a great deal of loss.