Andrew Scheer’s campaign is dealing with speculation about who might be his successor should the rookie Conservative leader fail to form a government after the Oct. 21 federal election.

A fear that Scheer will be unable to seal the deal with voters is fuelling speculation that the Conservatives could be plunged into a leadership contest as early as April, when the party is expected to hold its annual convention in Toronto.

There have been rumblings that Peter MacKay, who merged his Progressive Conservatives with Stephen Harper’s Canadian Alliance to create the Conservative Party in 2003, will re-enter the political fray.

“Peter is at everything … I’ve been at a dozen (Conservative) candidates’ campaign office openings and Peter was at nearly every one, working the room, ” said one senior Ontario Conservative, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal party matters.

“There’s a sense if (Scheer) stumbles, it will be because he was too tied to the so-cons,” the insider said, referring to social conservatives who oppose abortion rights for women and same-sex marriage.

“Peter is a moderate who could sell in places (Scheer) isn’t.”

MacKay’s name was floated publicly by longtime Tory insider John Capobianco in a Globe and Mail story on Thursday, but he walked back his comments on Twitter that afternoon.

“In no way did I intend to suggest anything other than my full support to our party and my leader,” Capobianco tweeted.

“All evidence points to a united CPC with all of us working hard to see Andrew Scheer as Canada’s next Prime Minister!”

While Capobianco’s comments were unusually public, the conversation around Scheer’s fate should he stumble is not new.

Asked by reporters about the internecine angling for his job after Thursday’s leaders’ debate, the Tory chief was curt.

“I reject the premise of that question,” said Scheer.

Conservatives see this as a winnable election, and hope to limit Justin Trudeau to one term in power. If Scheer’s campaign disappoints, rumblings about his shelf-life will likely grow louder.

One senior Conservative source, granted anonymity to discuss party matters, said there’s always speculation about replacements when a rookie leader heads into their first campaign.

The source said Scheer’s leadership would be threatened if the Liberals win a majority, but his position would be more secure if he limits the Liberals to a minority.

Another plugged-in insider said they had not personally heard successor talk in Conservative circles, but wouldn’t be surprised if high-profile contenders are starting to think about it. The names usually discussed as potential successors should Scheer falter include MacKay, former Conservative interim leader Rona Ambrose and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney.

Kenney, the godfather to one of Scheer’s five children, attended 23 events in Ottawa and the Greater Toronto Area last weekend to boost Scheer’s federal campaign.

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An Alberta Conservative source said Kenney did so at the behest of the Scheer campaign, and downplayed any suggestion that the premier — who will table a belt-tightening provincial budget on Oct. 24, three days after the election — has any federal ambitions.

But the source acknowledged the optics may have upset some in Premier Doug Ford’s camp, with Kenney campaigning in their backyard as Ford remained on the federal sidelines. The source said Kenney spoke to Ford personally before his whistle-stop tour, and received the Ontario premier’s blessing.

“The way the media drew the comparison between Ford and Kenney I’m sure wasn’t comfortable or appreciated by many in Ford’s office or Ford’s circle,” the source said.

“Ford’s people would say that they’ve been unfairly depicted as a drag on Andrew Scheer in Ontario. And if Andrew Scheer is being defined by the provincial Conservatives’ budget or brand, it’s because Scheer’s failed to define himself strongly in the mind of Ontario and that Premier Ford shouldn’t be blamed for that.”

Another name being bandied about is Durham MP Erin O’Toole, an affable former minister who finished third behind Scheer and Maxime Bernier in the Tories’ 2017 leadership contest.

Boosters of O’Toole’s potential candidacy note he is a centrist from the Greater Toronto Area who speaks French and is well-regarded on Bay St.

“Erin could be just what we need,” said an influential Toronto Conservative who is wary of MacKay taking the reins.

In a statement, the Scheer’s campaign emphasized his major concern is the election, not internal party jockeying.

“Andrew Scheer is focused on defeating Justin Trudeau and getting elected prime minister on Oct. 21,” Simon Jefferies wrote in an emailed statement.

This story was updated on Oct. 11, 2019.

Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

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