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If the NDP win a majority government, then reform may very well be on the horizon. They will argue that they received a mandate to change the system without a referendum since a change to MMP is clearly laid out in their policy platform that was offered to voters. In the increasingly unlikely event that the Liberals win a majority government, they have promised a “national engagement process” that, unsurprisingly, may or may not include a referendum.

But unless the Liberals make it clear before the election that they also would proceed without a referendum, the possibility of minority or coalition governments complicates the matter. In this situation, electoral reform will likely remain on the agenda but may lack the purported legitimacy of a clear mandate. Despite the current Conservative strategy, a referendum could actually be beneficial for reform in this scenario.

Refusal to hold a referendum on electoral reform could make democratic reform look undemocratic to voters, while an unsuccessful one could sink the whole thing for good

The Conservatives seem to envision a single referendum, like the ones in the provinces and the United Kingdom, where voters will say “No” to a particular reform. The best move for the NDP and Liberals may be to follow New Zealand, where reform succeeded in two referendums and was confirmed in a third referendum 15 years later. If the Conservatives want citizens to weigh in on the issue, then they might well support additional referendums.

In the first New Zealand referendum, all citizens were sent information about several alternative systems and then voted on a ballot with two questions. The first question asked whether or not the electoral system should be changed and the second question asked voters to select their preferred alternative option. This method allows voters to signal their satisfaction, or lack thereof with the current system, while minimizing infighting amongst supporters of various alternatives.