By Dan Loman

Jawun Evans is having a stellar year for the Cowboys. (source: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article56166805.html)

Last year at BracketVoodoo, we looked at how having a dynamic playmaker affects a team’s chances in the NCAA Tournament. We devised a Playmaking Concentration index for each team that measures the degree to which the playmaking (defined as assists+unassisted field goals) is concentrated on one or a few players; a higher Playmaking Concentration means that few players were responsible for the bulk of playmaking on a team, and a lower Playmaking Concentration means that playmaking duties were more spread out. Ultimately, we found that teams with a legit playmaker tended to exceed expectations in the NCAA Tournament, with Shabazz Napier at UConn (‘14) and Trey Burke at Michigan (‘13) being shining examples.

We saw mixed results with this theory in 2016; while Northern Iowa and Wichita St (two teams with a high Playmaking Concentration) exceeded expectations as 11 seeds that defeated a 6 seed to advance to the Second Round, Michigan State (with Denzel Valentine) was notably and unceremoniously upset by 15 seed Middle Tennessee State in the first round. Looking at the top playmakers for the 2017 season, we see Oklahoma State and Jawun Evans near the top for the second straight year.

Though Oklahoma State has a modest 20-11 record overall and 9-9 record in conference through 30 games, they’re having arguably their best season in years. They’ve got the highest rated offense in the country and they’re ranked #19 overall in both our power rankings and KenPom.com’s ratings, where their Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +22.58, means they’d be expected to lead an average NCAA team by 22.58 points after 100 possessions. In fact, their Adjusted EM is the highest it’s been since 2005, when the Cowboys were a #2 seed and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen behind future NBA players Joey Graham and John Lucas III:

Despite their high efficiency rating, the Cowboys seem to be overlooked this year; they’re unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls and are projected as just a 9 seed in Jerry Palm’s latest bracket. Part of the reason is that they’re overshadowed by conference-mates Kansas and Baylor, who are both in play for #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve also just started to surge recently - the Cowboys were victims of a 6 game losing streak from December 30 to January 18, which they’ve followed up by winning 10 of 11 before losing close games to Iowa State and Kansas. Finally, their record is deflated because of who they’ve played. According to KenPom.com, Oklahoma State plays in the toughest conference in the country and has played the second most difficult schedule in the land. Combine that with the fact that the Cowboys tend to lose close games and win big ones, and their record undersells how good they’ve really been this year.

A major reason for Oklahoma State’s offensive resurgence has been the play of sophomore phenom point guard Jawun Evans, who’s projected as a late first or second round pick in the 2017 draft if he declares. The 6’1’’ Evans is putting up 18.7/3.3/6.3 for the Cowboys this year and demolishes all major conference players in our playmaking rate at .5888, meaning that 58.9% of Oklahoma St’s field goals were assisted by or scored unassisted by Evans while he was on the court. He’s also ranked third nationally in assist rate (first in the Big 12) and in the top 25 nationally in usage rate (also first in the Big 12). Kenpom.com has Evans ranked 6th in their Player of the Year rankings and lists TJ Ford and Chris Paul as his closest comparisons.

Those are some impressive accomplishments for a sophomore guard playing in the toughest conference, and digging deeper, it’s clear that Evans is one of the most important players in the country. He scored 18 points on 6-7 shooting and dished out 5 assists in a huge win at West Virginia, scored an efficient 22 in a win at Wichita State, and dropped 14 assists in a close loss to Kansas. On the flipside, Evans shot only 31% during the Cowboys’ 6-game losing streak. Although Evans is shooting a relatively modest 43.4% from the field, he gets 88.5% of his buckets unassisted, so he’s generating a staggering amount of the offense on his own. And last year, when Evans got hurt and was out for the year, Oklahoma State went just 1-10 in the games he didn’t finish - a major reason behind the their disappointing 12-20 record. If the Cowboys are to make the tournament’s second weekend for the first time since 2005, it’ll likely be on the back of Jawun Evans.

Here’s a look at other teams with a high Playmaking Concentration that are currently seeded in Jerry Palm’s bracket:

Providence (projected as an 10 seed):

Providence coach Ed Cooley must like having the ball in the hands of his top playmakers. Kris Dunn was among the leaders in Playmaking Rate over the past two seasons and they’ve now handed the keys to junior Kyron Cartwright, who gets an assist or scores unassisted on 46.72% of the Friars’ baskets when he’s on the court. Providence has won 6 straight games, including a win over Butler, and are on track to make the NCAA Tournament for a third straight year despite the losses of Dunn and Ben Bentil.

Creighton (projected as a 6 seed):

At one point this season Creighton was 18-1 and ranked seventh in the nation in the AP poll behind the play of senior point guard Maurice Watson. Watson was averaging 12.9 points and 8.5 assists per game, was second nationally in assist rate and fourth in playmaking rate among major conference players at .5065. On January 18th, Watson suffered a torn ACL and was subsequently suspended from the team after being arrested for first-degree sexual assault. Since then, Creighton has gone just 5-7 and their playmaking has spread out substantially.

Michigan State (projected as a 10 seed):

It’s been a disappointing year in East Lansing, and that was before senior guard Eron Harris suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Spartans were once a team with Final Four aspirations and are now close the the NCAA Tournament bubble and projected as just a 10 seed by Jerry Palm as of this writing (but hey, maybe that won’t actually stop them from reaching the Final Four). Michigan State can thank freshman guard Cassius Winston for helping them reach the field of 68, as he ranks first nationally in assist rate at 48.2.

Kentucky (projected as a 2 seed):

Kentucky has been known to produce a high quality guard or two since John Calipari took over, so it should be no surprise to see that their playmaking is concentrated between two projected lotto picks (De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk) and another 5-star recruit (Isaiah Briscoe). We don’t project the NBA draft here, but if we did, we might expect one or two of these guys to end up in Phoenix to play in an all-Kentucky backcourt with Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight and Tyler Ulis. The Wildcats are loaded again this year and have a decent shot at delivering John Calipari his second national title; they’re currently projected as a 2 seed.