Warning: Photos and Content Included in this Post may be Disturbing and NSFW

Last night, my phone buzzed at about 1 AM with multiple confirmations of a shooter on the Las Vegas strip. I stayed up to watch the chaos unfold, listening to the police scanner and watching various live streams. This is indeed a very unpredictable and troubling situation, and although we do not know too much at the moment, this is a list of what is known so far, as well as some personal speculations regarding information being passed around.

The Facts:

Last night, a gunman began shooting from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel. The shooting began at about 10 PM local time. The target was the Route 91 Harvest country music festival. Jason Aldean was performing to a crowd of 30-40,000 people at the time this occurred. Shots rang out in rapid bursts from the hotel, aimed at the crowd below. Chaos quickly ensued as the concertgoers realized these were not fireworks, and people were being shot in droves. The shooter used 2 separate points to fire from in his room. The windows had been shot or broken out. This was likely done by the shooter in order to have a greater range and achieve maximum body count. According to eye witnesses, the shooting continued “for 10 minutes nonstop” after the first shots were fired. In the scene that followed, 58 (as of right now) were killed and over 400 injured. Many of those injured likely came from the stampede that ensued as the terrified victims fled the area. When police finally entered the room, they found 64-year-old Stephen Paddock dead from apparent suicide with a gunshot wound to the head. Police believe Paddock used a live stream to identify the location of law enforcement and took his life as they were about to enter his room. Inside the large hotel room police found 10 different rifles. The exact rifle used has not been disclosed yet, nor has the amount of ammunition. Since the weapons we’re fired through the window, the shell casings will be left on the ground, giving police a very accurate count of how many rounds of ammunition were spent. Paddock lived in Mesquite, NV, a small town roughly 80 miles from Las Vegas. His roommate, Marylou Danely was sought in connection with the shooting, however police say that she was found, questioned, and does not have direct involvement in the case at the time. Although ISIS has already claimed responsibility for inspiring the attack, all law enforcement sources have said that Paddock has no known ties to terrorism at this time. Claims that he does should be treated carefully. Paddock has a pilot license, two planes, and an active hunting license. According to several different sources, a woman made her to the front of the crowd 45 minutes before the shooting started and began to yell “You’re all going to fucking die” before being escorted out by police. Although the woman was described as 5’4″ and hispanic, there is no confirmation as of yet regarding her identity, or if it was Marylou Danely.

Now on to the more speculative portion of the report.

The Weapon:

Police have yet to identify the weapon used, however, from the footage, it sounds like the weapon is a belt fed machine gun, or possibly a rifle with very high capacity magazines.

As heard clearly in this video, the weapon is definitely fully automatic. Semi automatic weapons cannot be fired that rapidly, especially not with such precise spaces in between the shots. Furthermore, semi automatic weapons would not be accurate at that rate of fire.

My guess is that the weapon was not an M16. First, the barrel would quickly be overheated after such long bursts of fire. Although there were 10 rifles in the room, it seems that to inflict most damage the shooter would stay with a single one. Furthermore, M16’s are not designed to lay down fire over a large area. They have a lot of recoil because they don’t weigh that much. Lastly, the speed of the shots does not sound like a typical M16, which can be heard here.

This sounds a lot more like either of these belt fed machine guns. Not only is the rate of fire more alike to the one in all the Vegas footage, but this would make a lot more sense as well. Belt fed machine guns are designed to lay down fire over a spread out area on a lot of people for a lot of time. They’re often used as infantry support. Their barrels take longer to overheat, they weigh more to prevent recoil, and they often come equipped with bipods to ensure accuracy.

Considering the 15 second long bursts of fire and 58 bodies, a belt fed LMG seems like the likely culprit. This is critical because these sorts of weapons are totally and completely illegal in the US, and are extremely hard and expensive to obtain.

The shooter: motives (actually) unknown.

In the wake of many attacks in the US it is pretty easy to get down the shooters motive. As soon as the location of Pulse nightclub and a picture of the shooter were released, everyone knew what was going on. Each time there’s a school shooting, the motive is usually the same. This time however, things are not so clear. Here are the motives, listed in order of likelihood:

The guy was batshit crazy. He has no social media to go off of, was old and white, and lived in a small town. No evidence of political affiliation or expression of ideological principles leads me to believe this guy might have just gone off the deep end. Even more scary is the apparent warning issued to the concertgoers leading up to the shooting. Even if the lady who tipped off the crowd wasn’t Mary Lou Danely, she almost certainly had hard knowledge that she shooting was about to occur and didn’t tell police. Terrorists don’t tell their victims what’s about to happen to them, psychos do. Political motivations. Although the guy has no political history to speak of, there are some small inferences that can be made. He lived for a long period of time in California, and his current home, Nevada is a blue state. His wife was formerly married to a left wing activist who now lives in little rock Arkansas named Geary Danely (who is in no way connected to the shooting). Finally, the shooting took place at a country music festival, a place well known to be frequented by conservative white folks. This makes a jackpot for a pissed off liberal extremist motivated by the virulently anti-conservative media. Of course, he could have been a conservative too, but the MO really does not fit conservatives. Conservative lunatics typically target very political targets like abortion clinics or, most recently, protesters. A conservative would be doing himself no favors if he attacked this kind of crowd, and it seems doubtful that one of them would to say the least. Religion of Pieces. ISIS has already claimed to have inspired the attack, and a couple of Israeli and Russian news sources report that the guy was inspired by radical Islam. This has been refuted by law enforcement and the American media, and seems the most unlikely to me. Most guys inspired by radicals have active social media that they were contacted by. This guy doesn’t. In fact, he’s old enough to where the internet and social media would probably just not be very welcoming to him. It’s still possible, but highly highly unlikely.

Media Response

I warn you, watch the news of the upcoming few days with great prudence, because an Irma-sized shitstorm from the mainstream and liberal media is already well in the works. A couple of our favorite liberal friends have already decided to chime in:

As of 7 hours ago from this post being made, #GunControlNow only had 1033 tweets, and yet Twitter forced in to the top of trending using their algorithm.

And finally, our friends at twitter let fake white supremacist accounts follow an alleged account of the shooter after he was identified so that it appears he is a white supremacist.

This is why social media absolutely cannot be trusted: those at the top still work to manipulate the story to their narrative. This time it’s about gun control and white supremacy. When it’s an Islamic attack, photos of the attacker are suppressed and anyone who says that the attacker was a radical Muslim is written off as Islamaphobic and often banned.

Expect your typical response from mainstream and liberal media. They will blame it on “gun culture” and the NRA, calling for more gun control while completely ignoring the weapon used was likely illegal to begin with. Furthermore, they will find some way to blame Trump. If he doesn’t immediately advocate for gun control but does later, he won’t have done it quick enough. If he doesn’t advocate for it, then he’s an evil murder-enabling piece of shit. Finally, expect white people or culture to be blamed in one way or another, because remember: there’s no such thing as a crazy white person that other white people didn’t create (according to the media).

Trump’s Response

If this guy is liberal or Islamic, we already know where the blame will be placed and how it will play out. in this case, Trump will do everything possible to fire up his base against the enemy and to work against him.

If the guy is conservative, expect a more tempered response that does not directly accuse or blame anyone other than the media for inspiration or bad coverage. It is highly unlikely Trump will move to take away any gun rights.

The Real Dangers: What this means for you

In reality it was (unfortunately) only a matter of time before this happened. There was no gaping error in security or watchfulness. In fact, I’m personally surprised this didn’t happen sooner. The real dangers here aren’t whether or not you’re more likely to be killed by someone like this, but whether your freedoms will be taken away.

First, this is the largest shooting in US history. It was conducted over 400 M away from the target. That distance is well outside the security portfolio of anything short of the president. This may mean increased security at hotels. However, the most likely result is that more people will begin to suspect one another, and fear will permeate public events like never before.

Second, you can bet your ass the left will look to increase gun control, despite the illegality of the weapon used. They jump on every chance they can to enact stricter gun control and blame the NRA. A shooting like this, especially conducted by an old white dude with a hunting license (sounds like a lot of NRA members) is a perfect time to start spouting this narrative. Much of my liberal friends already have. Sad!

Finally, your civil liberties are in danger. Expect attempts to expand the power of NSA and other intelligence agencies to spy on everyone by any means necessary. A new list of “high potential” shooters could be made, including anyone known with large stocks of weapons or ammo. Gun registries may expand in some states and begin in others. Moments like these are ideal for writing updated versions of the PATRIOT act. Don’t fall for it. Thankfully we have a very conservative congress and a president whose main base loves guns, so we may be safe for now. But hold on to your hats folks, the anti gun lobby is going to give you a run for your money.

To all readers, stay safe and healthy, and know that today you are in no more danger than you were yesterday. This scary reality the media is trying to create about crazed white men with machine guns around every corner and in every high rise is bullshit. Not a single thing in this country has legitimately changed. You are in no more danger today than you were a week ago, or than you will be a week from now. This country is safe and it will stay that way. Unfortunately, the system fails sometimes, but that comes with freedom. In all reality, this is still the greatest place on earth. Don’t let your perception be easily swayed by the divisive and conniving media.

Remain ever vigilant.