First of all, remember that thanks to a couple of lousy cycles for the Democrats (and a map tailor-made for Republicans), the GOP holds an outsized majority in the House of Delegates: 66-34. That means, for those who aren’t in the mood to do subtraction, that the GOP is only fielding a challenge to six Democratic incumbents, while the Democrats are going after the vast majority (54) of Republican incumbents. The second way in which this is notable is that this is a gigantic departure from the previous election cycle (2015). In 2015, the GOP left approximately the same number of Democratic seats without a challenger (one less—27). But the Democrats nearly conceded the legislative majority to the GOP before the election even began. They left 44 Republican seats unchallenged for November 2015, ensuring that the GOP would only need minimal victories on Election Night to secure their legislative majority.

Now, specific to Virginia, the boom in Democratic interest in the state House of Delegates has a bit of a logical rationale: in 2015, almost all of the energy among Virginia Democrats was in an effort to retake the state Senate, which was far more attainable (the GOP held a scant 21-19 majority). This time around, the state Senate is not on the agenda (senators serve four-year terms, and are not up for re-election until 2019). Therefore, local Democrats can focus intently on trying to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the lower house.

But, it has to be noted, this is bigger than just that. After all, in 2013, the last time the state House was in play but the Senate was not holding elections, the Democrats didn’t field candidates in nearly 30 races.

The bottom line is that history has shown that candidate recruitment is an excellent indicator of party enthusiasm and energy headed into an election cycle. It’s not an accident that the Democrats’ two best legislative election cycles in recent memory (2006 and 2008) came when they were able to field candidates in just about every district.

There are a few logical reasons why: 1) When people are engaged and enthused, they are more likely to want to effect change. That would make them more likely to throw their hats into the political ring. And: 2) Let’s be blunt—a lot of politicos are ambitious. They may demur from moving up the ladder if they fear wrecking their careers with an ill-timed defeat. Therefore, when the climate for a particular party seems better, you see a lot of ambitious pols jump off the sidelines, convinced that the water is warm enough for them to dive in. Finally: 3) A less-discussed reason is that often good candidates sit out, simply because they don’t want to be consigned to life in a semi-permanent legislative minority. Therefore, when there is a sense that a political sea change might be underway, more candidates are willing to jump into the fray for the out-party, convinced that even if they don’t claw their way to a majority, they may put themselves in a position where they are only a cycle or so away from it.

All of these apply to Virginia. Several GOP-held seats had competitive Democratic primaries to select their challengers. And while no one expects that the Democrats can seize the House of Delegates (it would take a historic swing for that to happen), it no longer seems out of the realm of possibility that the Democratic deficit in the chamber could be more than halved by the outcome of the November elections.

While one chamber in one state does not make a trend, herein lies the lesson: long before we get into the heat of the 2018 midterms, watch the filing deadlines. Indeed, one of the earliest deadlines (Texas) comes in a state where Democrats routinely file in low numbers. And indeed, of the nearly 100 seats held by the GOP in the state’s House of Representatives (150 seats in total), Democrats didn’t field a candidate in more than 60 of them last year. Watch those numbers this year, along with the numbers federally. It is early, but Democrats have been able to recruit A-list candidates (or at worst, candidates that are several rungs above Some Dude), even in districts that aren’t high on anyone’s target list. While that is no guarantee of success come November, it is an absolutely meaningful bit of information.