March 28, 2019 - Biden Is On Top Of Democratic Presidential Pack, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Most Voters Say They Definitely Won't Vote For Trump

PDF format

Trend Information

Sample and Methodology detail



In an early look at the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, former Vice President Joseph Biden is the choice of 29 percent of Democrats and voters leaning Democratic, with 19 percent for U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and 12 percent for former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.





U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California has 8 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. No other Democratic contender gets more than 4 percent.





Democrats and Democratic leaners say 70 - 27 percent that age is not an important factor in their vote. Looking at other possible factors, these voters say:

72 - 21 percent that political ideology is an important factor;

67 - 23 percent that bipartisanship is an important factor;

71 - 24 percent that standing up to Republicans is important;

76 - 20 percent that electability is important;

87 - 10 percent that sharing their views is important;

84 - 13 percent, including 75 - 25 percent among black voters, that race is not an important factor;

84 - 12 percent, including 83 - 14 percent among women, that gender is not important.

It is more important that a presidential candidate be a great leader, 55 percent of all voters say, while 36 percent say it's more important for a candidate to have great policy ideas.





"Hungry for a candidate to take on President Donald Trump, Democrats and Democratic leaners put the three B's, Biden, Bernie and Beto, at the top in a race where age, race and gender take a back seat to electability and shared views," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





Republicans and Republican leaners remain loyal to President Donald Trump, saying 56 - 35 percent they do not want to see someone run against him in a Republican primary.





But 53 percent of American voters say they definitely will not vote for Trump in the 2020 general election if he is the Republican candidate. Another 30 percent say they definitely will vote for Trump and 13 percent say they will consider voting for Trump. Definitely voting for Trump are 77 percent of Republicans, one percent of Democrats and 21 percent of independent voters.





"The loyal base stays the course, but 53 percent of all American voters say they've had enough and will not vote for President Trump," Malloy said.





There are wide party, gender and racial gaps as American voters support 54 - 39 percent the direct election of the president by popular vote rather than through the Electoral College:

Support for direct election is 82 - 13 percent among Democrats and 51 - 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans are opposed 71 - 25 percent;

Women support direct election 60 - 33 percent. Men are divided as 48 percent support direct election, with 45 percent opposed;

White voters are divided as 50 percent support it, with 44 percent opposed. Black voters support it 71 - 21 percent, with Hispanic voters supporting it 67 - 28 percent.

U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York gets a negative 23 - 36 percent favorability rating, with 38 percent who haven't heard enough about her to form an opinion. Rep. Ocasio-Cortez has been good for the Democratic Party, 33 percent of voters say, as 36 percent say she's been bad for the party.





"All is definitely not A-OK for AOC. Most voters either don't like the firebrand freshman Congresswoman or don't know who she is," Malloy said.





From March 21 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,358 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 559 Democrats and Democratic leaners with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points, including the design effect, and 582 Republicans and Republican leaners with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, and Marianne Williamson, for whom would you vote?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Biden 29% 14% 26% 37% 32% 28% 29% 44% Sanders 19 21 23 15 22 17 13 17 O'Rourke 12 9 12 14 13 11 9 16 Harris 8 15 10 5 5 11 8 8 Warren 4 10 5 1 4 4 7 - Booker 2 3 3 2 1 3 3 1 Gillibrand - - - 1 1 - - - Klobuchar 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 - Castro 1 2 1 - 1 1 - 3 Gabbard - - - - - - - - Inslee - 1 - 1 1 - 1 - Hickenlooper 1 1 2 - - 1 1 - Delaney - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 4 9 3 3 5 4 6 - Yang - - 1 - 1 - 1 - Williamson - - - - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 2 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - DK/NA 14 11 12 16 8 18 15 12 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 29% 31% 22% 37% 30% 22% 31% Sanders 18 22 26 12 24 21 12 O'Rourke 11 13 15 9 12 14 12 Harris 8 10 9 7 7 9 11 Warren 5 2 4 4 2 3 7 Booker 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 Gillibrand - 1 - 1 - 1 - Klobuchar 2 3 1 4 2 4 2 Castro 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Gabbard - 1 - - - - 1 Inslee 1 - 1 - - 1 1 Hickenlooper 1 - 1 - - 2 - Delaney - - - - - - - Buttigieg 4 4 5 4 3 3 7 Yang - 1 1 - - 1 - Williamson - - - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 16 9 12 16 16 15 10

2. In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Definitely vote 30% 77% 1% 21% 34% 27% 32% 43% Consider voting 13 16 3 21 17 10 16 16 Definitely not vote 53 5 95 54 46 60 50 39 DK/NA 3 2 1 4 4 3 3 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Definitely vote 12% 29% 39% 34% 41% 34% 37% 6% 17% Consider voting 18 12 13 12 19 13 16 4 12 Definitely not vote 68 56 46 51 38 50 44 86 69 DK/NA 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 3

3. (If Republican or Republican leaner) Would you like to see someone else run against Donald Trump in the Republican primary for president, or wouldn't you like to see that?

REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS.............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 35% 27% 25% 30% 52% 38% 31% 35% 32% No 56 66 66 59 41 53 59 58 58 DK/NA 9 8 10 11 7 8 10 7 10 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Rep RepLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes 29% 48% 49% 26% 39% 34% 33% No 63 40 43 64 49 59 61 DK/NA 8 12 8 10 12 8 5

5. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that is - younger or older?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Younger 39% 46% 40% 38% 44% 36% 40% 38% Older 21 14 21 26 21 21 17 30 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 35 35 33 35 31 38 37 28 DK/NA 5 5 7 2 4 5 6 3 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Younger 38% 44% 44% 35% 39% 47% 39% Older 21 20 18 24 27 20 15 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 36 33 35 35 31 30 42 DK/NA 5 2 3 6 3 3 5

6. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that is - a man or a woman?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Man 10% 3% 15% 11% 13% 8% 8% 14% Woman 26 41 29 20 17 32 27 30 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 59 54 53 65 64 56 61 56 DK/NA 4 2 3 5 6 3 4 - PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Man 11% 9% 8% 12% 9% 12% 11% Woman 27 24 30 22 27 28 25 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 58 64 59 60 59 54 62 DK/NA 4 4 3 5 5 6 3

7. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that is - white or a person of color?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk White 4% 1% 3% 7% 6% 3% 3% 9% Person of color 20 34 24 14 16 23 15 26 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 69 57 64 76 71 68 76 62 DK/NA 6 8 9 3 6 6 6 3 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ White 4% 5% 4% 5% 7% 2% 5% Person of color 20 22 31 9 17 24 25 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 70 68 59 80 69 68 66 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 7 6 5

8. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that is - a progressive or a moderate?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Progressive 49% 83% 56% 30% 45% 51% 45% 51% Moderate 44 11 37 64 50 41 47 44 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 4 6 5 3 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Progressive 53% 36% 64% 35% 53% 44% 50% Moderate 40 57 33 54 37 50 47 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 1 DK/NA 5 6 3 7 7 5 1

9. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that - will mostly work with Republicans or will mostly stand up to Republicans?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Work with Reps 52% 30% 48% 65% 51% 52% 53% 49% Stand up to Reps 39 66 40 27 40 39 38 43 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 3 2 5 1 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 6 2 6 7 7 6 7 5 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Work with Reps 49% 62% 55% 48% 56% 52% 49% Stand up to Reps 42 31 38 41 34 42 43 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 3 1 4 2 2 2 4 DK/NA 6 6 3 9 8 4 4

10. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that - most shares your views on issues or a candidate that you think is the most electable?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Shares views 51% 45% 52% 54% 45% 55% 46% 55% Most electable 45 52 46 42 50 42 50 41 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 3 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Shares views 51% 51% 56% 45% 62% 53% 40% Most electable 45 47 42 50 34 45 56 DOESN'T MATTER(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 3 2 1 3 3 1 2

11. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you say that - age is an important factor to your vote in the Democratic primary, or not?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Important factor 27% 24% 24% 30% 29% 25% 22% 42% No 70 69 74 66 70 70 73 58 DK/NA 4 7 2 4 2 5 4 - PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Important factor 27% 25% 21% 32% 27% 34% 22% No 70 69 75 65 68 64 77 DK/NA 3 6 4 3 5 3 1

12. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you say that - gender is an important factor to your vote in the Democratic primary, or not?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Important factor 12% 19% 10% 10% 9% 14% 10% 22% No 84 77 89 85 87 83 85 77 DK/NA 3 4 1 5 4 3 5 1 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Important factor 15% 4% 11% 13% 13% 10% 8% No 82 91 85 84 85 87 89 DK/NA 3 6 4 3 2 3 3

13. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you say that - race is an important factor to your vote in the Democratic primary, or not?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Important factor 13% 25% 12% 9% 12% 14% 9% 25% No 84 73 86 87 84 83 86 75 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 3 3 5 - PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Important factor 13% 15% 14% 12% 14% 10% 14% No 85 80 83 85 84 88 84 DK/NA 2 5 3 3 2 3 2

14. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you say that - political ideology is an important factor to your vote in the Democratic primary, or not?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Important factor 72% 82% 82% 65% 72% 72% 71% 71% No 21 13 15 28 25 18 21 24 DK/NA 7 6 3 7 3 9 8 5 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Important factor 74% 66% 78% 68% 72% 71% 78% No 19 25 15 25 21 24 19 DK/NA 6 9 6 8 7 5 4

15. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you say that - bipartisanship is an important factor to your vote in the Democratic primary, or not?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Important factor 67% 50% 71% 73% 71% 65% 71% 74% No 23 37 21 20 24 22 22 17 DK/NA 10 12 8 7 4 13 6 9 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Important factor 65% 75% 66% 68% 61% 73% 74% No 25 17 23 24 23 21 24 DK/NA 10 8 11 8 16 6 2

16. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you say that - standing up to Republicans is an important factor to your vote in the Democratic primary, or not?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Important factor 71% 85% 72% 63% 71% 71% 69% 78% No 24 9 22 32 26 22 26 22 DK/NA 5 6 6 5 3 6 6 - PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Important factor 74% 62% 71% 73% 71% 67% 71% No 21 34 24 22 22 27 28 DK/NA 5 5 6 5 7 5 2

17. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you say that - electability is an important factor to your vote in the Democratic primary, or not?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Important factor 76% 73% 83% 76% 78% 75% 78% 77% No 20 21 14 23 20 20 19 18 DK/NA 4 6 3 2 2 5 3 5 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Important factor 75% 79% 74% 78% 72% 72% 83% No 21 19 22 18 25 23 15 DK/NA 4 2 3 4 3 5 1

18. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you say that - sharing your views on issues is an important factor to your vote in the Democratic primary, or not?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Important factor 87% 93% 90% 85% 87% 88% 87% 87% No 10 4 8 14 13 9 12 6 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 1 3 2 6 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Important factor 86% 90% 89% 86% 89% 84% 88% No 11 9 9 11 9 16 9 DK/NA 3 - 2 3 2 - 2

19. If you had to choose, which is more important in a presidential candidate: a candidate who you think would be a great leader, or a candidate who you think has great policy ideas?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Great leader 55% 51% 64% 50% 50% 59% 54% 58% Great policy ideas 36 37 32 40 40 32 39 32 DK/NA 9 13 4 9 9 9 8 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Great leader 47% 53% 63% 56% 52% 60% 56% 57% 49% Great policy ideas 46 40 30 28 39 32 35 35 41 DK/NA 6 7 8 16 9 8 9 8 10

20. For future presidential elections, would you support or oppose changing to a system in which the president is elected by direct popular vote, instead of by the Electoral College?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 54% 25% 82% 51% 48% 60% 50% 49% Oppose 39 71 13 39 45 33 43 45 DK/NA 7 3 5 10 7 7 6 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 64% 56% 52% 51% 43% 56% 50% 71% 67% Oppose 26 39 44 40 52 37 44 21 28 DK/NA 9 5 4 9 5 7 6 8 5

TREND: For future presidential elections, would you support or oppose changing to a system in which the president is elected by direct popular vote, instead of by the Electoral College?

Sup Opp DK/NA Mar 28, 2019 54 39 7 Nov 23, 2016 53 39 8 Dec 06, 2012 60 29 11

21. Is your opinion of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 23% 2% 47% 20% 20% 27% 28% 15% Unfavorable 36 74 7 36 43 30 44 45 Hvn't hrd enough 38 23 44 41 33 42 25 38 REFUSED 2 1 3 3 4 1 3 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 35% 27% 19% 18% 20% 22% 21% 29% 29% Unfavorable 23 32 43 42 51 39 45 10 20 Hvn't hrd enough 41 40 35 37 26 38 32 61 49 REFUSED 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 - 2

22. Overall, do you think that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been good for the Democratic Party or bad for the Democratic Party?