The street appears to expect that Tesla will meet its guidance for the quarter. David Tamberrino, Goldman’s analyst who is sell-rated on the Tesla, recently increased his delivery estimates for the quarter to 52k Model 3s (up from 48k previously). Sources such as Electrek and InsideEVs have also pointed to a sharp positive inflection in production and deliveries. Our data reaffirms these estimates and shows that Tesla has made extraordinary progress in a short period of time.

Will visits keep up in Q4?

One of the key bear arguments for the stock is that demand for the current Model 3 has already been met in the US, given the high price of the variant currently offered (the Long Range RWD version starts at $49k before tax incentives). If this is true, we’ll start to see a negative inflection in visits to US delivery centers in Q4 since the company isn’t planning on selling internationally until 2019. Please contact us (research@alphahat.com) if you are interested in purchasing our foot traffic data to monitor these trends going forward.

Alpha Hat (www.alphahat.com) provides investors with real-time anonymized foot traffic intelligence to over 300 retail, restaurant and entertainment brands. Please contact research@alphahat.com for more information.