Europe, China, and Mexico are taking revenge on President Donald Trump after he imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from those countries last week—and they’re doing it by targeting quintessentially American products. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on beer kegs and pizza from the United States. And the European Union has threatened to tax imports of blue jeans, bourbon, and Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

But Mexico’s retaliation hits the United States right in the gut. The Associated Press reported last week that Mexico would impose tariffs on U.S. apples, grapes, and, crucially, pork belly, which is where bacon comes from; a tax of 10 percent became effective this Tuesday, and in a month it will rise to 20 percent. The penalty will remain in effect until Trump undoes his steel and aluminum tariffs, the Mexican government said.

Some say the tariffs are terrible news for the U.S. pork industry. “It’s a tragedy if we lose any major portion of our export business,” an agricultural economics professor told Bloomberg last week. “It comes at a bad time.” But what does it mean for the tens of millions of bacon-obsessed Americans?

In theory, a big tariff on U.S. pork belly imports in Mexico would increase the cost of the product in that country, prompting sales to fall. The United States would then export less pork belly, increasing the supply of it in the United States—where, in turn, the cost of it would fall. “[Mexico’s tariff’s] might be good news for U.S. supermarket shoppers buying bacon, at least for a little while,” CNBC reported on Tuesday, adding that it “could lead to more pork supplies staying in the domestic market and lower consumer prices in the short term.”

But pork industry analysts don’t expect that result because Mexicans don’t consume that much U.S. pork belly. “A trade tariff on bellies wouldn’t be very impactful because of the minimal amount we send to Mexico,” said Christine McCracken, the executive director of animal protein at Rabobank, a financial services firm for agribusiness.

