SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

By Paul Perillo

When the Patriots run - Edge: Patriots

For the second week in a row the Patriots ground game showed signs of life. Sony Michel ran with authority against a tough Bills defense and Rex Burkhead added some energy and quickness to the equation as well. In all the Patriots finished with 143 yards on the ground and averaged 4.1 yards per carry in doing so. Coming off a 175-yard rushing performance in Cincinnati, the Patriots suddenly have some momentum on the ground to carry into the playoffs. Of course the Dolphins still stand in the way, but since Miami allows 135.4 yards per game on the ground it's likely that the recent surge continues. Miami has dealt with lots of injuries throughout the lineup this season and even when healthy it hasn't shown much ability to stop the run, ranking 27th in the league. The linebackers have been hit particular hard as Raekwon McMillan and James Crawford are on IR, leaving a lot of question marks behind. Look for the Patriots to continue to pound away, perhaps with Elandon Roberts expanding his role as fullback to help the cause. Michel still hasn't hit the century mark this season, but he'll have an opportunity against Miami to close it out.

When the Patriots pass - Edge: Patriots

Much like the running game, New England's air attack looked great against the Bills. After several weeks of mediocre efforts, Tom Brady completed nearly 80 percent of his throws and worked the ball around to nine different receivers. That also has a chance to continue against a Dolphins secondary that is without its best player (Xavien Howard) and ranks 28th in the league by allowing 265.4 yards per game. Julian Edelman is still dealing with obvious pain, both with his shoulder and knee. But the Patriots may not be able to afford sitting him out given his importance to the offense and the significance of the game. Assuming he plays the Patriots should have no trouble finding receivers against Miami corners Nik Needham and Jomal Wiltz. Look for Josh McDaniels to continue to look for ways to get N'Keal Harry more involved, and perhaps for Mohamed Sanu to bounce back after a couple of slow weeks. Either way, the Patriots should have more than enough to cause some problems for Miami.

When the Dolphins run - Edge: Patriots

Miami's running game is beyond abysmal, ranking dead last with an average of 72.9 yards per game. How bad is it? Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the team in rushing with 228 yards on 49 carries. The leading rusher in terms of carries is Kalen Ballage, who had 74 attempts before landing on IR. He averaged 1.8 yards per carry on those 74 attempts. So, any concerns about the Patriots run defense should be alleviated completely in this one. Miami hasn't moved the ball on the ground all season and will be using Patrick Laird and perhaps newcomer Samaje Perine to try to do so in this one. This shapes up as an enormous edge for New England. Lawrence Guy dominated the line of scrimmage against the Bills and is wrapping up the best season of his career. Danny Shelton has been rock solid as well. That tandem should be enough to keep the Dolphins from having any designs on moving the ball on the ground.

When the Dolphins pass - Edge: Patriots

Fitzpatrick having one of his rare "on" days is about the only way the Dolphins might find a way to move the football in this one. The veteran journeyman has played to his career with short periods of success sandwiched around much longer stretches of recklessness where ball security is an issue. He's thrown 13 interceptions in part-time work and generally gives the opponent plenty to chances to make plays on the ball. However, he can also get hot and in DeVante Parker he has a legitimate weapon on the outside. Parker is enjoying his best season, leading the Dolphins with 64 catches for 1,065 yards and nine touchdowns. All represent career highs. Fortunately the Patriots will likely match up Stephon Gilmore on Parker, and that's a battle that Gilmore has generally won in past meetings. Parker is capable to high-pointing the ball and making plays in traffic, and he'll need to do that against the Patriots if Miami is to have a chance. Tight end Mike Gesicki (47 catches, 536 yards, 4 TDs) is also enjoying a solid year in an otherwise moribund season in South Florida. Look for Fitzpatrick to lean heavily on both in an effort to keep the Dolphins competitive.

Special Teams - Edge: Patriots