Blank gameweeks took their first victims this past weekend, as the average FPL score was an abysmal 33 points. Week 27 also proved difficult from a captaincy perspective, with some of the safer picks failing to get on the scoresheet. Even Doc struggled with his picks. Kane (2 points) and Payet (3 points) failed to impress, and only a questionable assist from Vardy (5 points) saved Doc’s blushes.

Below are the shot prediction results from Gameweek 27. This was actually a great week from a predictions perspective, as 11 of 16 teams’ shot totals fell within their predicted ranges. Since the shots model uses 50% confidence intervals, only eight predictions were expected to be correct. Spurs were a huge outlier here, as their 34 shots broke a Premier League record for this season.

Below are the shot predictions for Gameweek 28. Arsenal are the shots favorites, with usual suspects Leicester and Tottenham right behind, and unusual suspects Sunderland and Stoke following behind them.

Keeping these predictions in mind, here are Doc’s Captain Picks for Week 28.

Mesut Özil: Arsenal look likely to score against Swansea, and the German international has established himself as the best FPL option of Arsenal’s attackers. With Sánchez, Ramsey, Walcott, and Giroud all lacking consistency, Özil is a safe pick this week.

Jamie Vardy: Leicester have another favorable home fixture as they host West Brom on Tuesday. Vardy is arguably in good form (depending on how you view his most recent assist), and this is as good a fixture as any for him to add to his impressive tally of 19 Premier League goals this season.

Harry Kane: It’s difficult to leave Agüero off this list, but the Argentine played 120 minutes on Sunday and he may not be asked to play the full 90 on Wednesday. Kane instead gets the nod here, with shot predictions showing that Spurs are likely to shoot between 13 and 19 times at West Ham.

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DoctorFootie is a 7th year FPL manager with an interest in the statistical intersection of form and fixture. For FPL draft recommendations, look for further writeups here using Togga’s scoring system.