Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg is the director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, at Tufts University.

Senator Bernie Sanders’ stunning upset in Michigan's Democratic primary was more likely a matter of underestimating young people than underestimating him. Throughout this primary season, youth turnout in both parties has been high, and young Democrats in many states are breaking in large numbers for Sanders.

Youth turnout has been high and voters under 30 account for a higher than average portion of the primary electorate. They support him disproportionately.

An estimated 27 percent of young people in Michigan participated in the primaries, nearly double the rate of 2008. About 19 percent of Democratic voters were under 30, according to exit polls, almost as many as people over 65, a group with traditionally high turnout rates. Young people are not monolithic, though. About 45 percent of Michiganders under 30 who voted on Tuesday cast Republican ballots. But among young Democrats, Sanders won 4 to 1.

While he hasn’t done as well with young voters in states with large black populations — on Super Tuesday, Sanders won 82 percent of the youth vote in Oklahoma and 40 percent in Alabama — he still does better with young black voters than with older African-Americans, based on our analysis of exit poll data.

But 60 percent of young Latinos who voted Democratic supported Senator Sanders on Super Tuesday, and Latinos made up 27 percent of young Democratic voters on that day.

Young voters have generally chosen presidential candidates whose positions on major issues reflect their own. Unlike older voters, who see a self-proclaimed democratic socialist like Sanders as unelectable, young people are unfazed by this label. Instead, a greater proportion of young voters than older voters prioritize income inequality and hope that the next president’s policies will be more liberal than those of President Obama. Voters under 30 now outnumber voters over 65.

With their high turnout and disproportionate support for Sanders they are shaping the Democratic primary. But if they continue to assert their influence they could help shape the future of our democracy.



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