New polls released Sunday in key battleground states suggest Hillary Clinton’s once-decisive advantage in the Electoral College is narrowing, raising the prospect that the bombshell letter FBI Director James Comey sent to Congress on Friday could further tighten the race.

Two new surveys show an erosion of Clinton’s advantage in vote-rich Florida. But at the same time, Clinton is ahead in new polls in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania — and victories in both states next month would likely clinch the presidency.


The new polls were conducted almost entirely before Comey’s letter leaked to the news media — a fact about which Trump crowed in a Twitter message on Sunday morning.

“We are now leading in many polls, and many of these were taken before the criminal investigation announcement on Friday – great in states!” Trump tweeted.

It’s not clear what impact, if any, Comey’s announcement will have on the race. The first data point, an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll conducted over the past two nights, suggests voters haven’t been moved significantly in the immediate wake of the Comey letter.

Still, now that Trump has at least pulled even in Florida, if not narrowly ahead, Clinton’s Electoral College firewall is looking more vulnerable — even without the volatility the resurgence of the email story has introduced over the race’s final stretch.

In Florida, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows Clinton and Trump tied in a head-to-head race, 46 percent to 46 percent. In a four-way matchup with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday, gives Clinton a nominal, 1-point lead.

But a Siena College poll conducted for the New York Times “Upshot” is better for Trump. The Republican leads by 4 points in the four-way matchup, 46 percent to 42 percent, and he has a 3-point lead in a head-to-head matchup with Clinton, 48 percent to 45 percent.

Both polls appear to confirm the race in Florida has moved toward Trump — first suggested by a Bloomberg Politics survey released last week giving Trump a 1-point lead over Clinton in a head-to-head matchup.

The two surveys differ slightly in ways that explain the overall variance between them. Trump is doubling up Clinton among white voters in the Siena poll, leading 58 percent to 29 percent. His lead is slightly smaller in the Marist poll: 54 percent to 34 percent. Both polls, however, showed Clinton and Trump winning similar percentages of voters who identify as members of their respective parties, with self-identified independents tilting toward Trump.

But while Trump has surged in Florida, he is still behind in two states critical to any Electoral College comeback: North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Losing both states, worth a combined 35 electoral votes, would foreclose most realistic paths to victory for Trump.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll in North Carolina, also conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday, gives Clinton a 6-point lead over Trump, 50 percent to 44 percent. Clinton’s margin holds when Johnson is included as an option, 47 percent to 41 percent. (Stein isn’t on the ballot in North Carolina.)

That poll shows a large education gap. Among white voters with a college degree, Clinton leads by 9 points, 50 percent to 41 percent. But Trump has a 44-point lead with white voters without a degree, 69 percent to 25 percent.

The race was a bit closer in a CBS News/YouGov survey released Sunday. That poll — conducted with online interviews last Wednesday through Friday — includes interviews on the day Comey’s letter leaked and shows Clinton ahead, 48 percent to 45 percent.

Clinton’s lead is even larger in Pennsylvania, according to a CBS News/YouGov online survey there, also conducted Wednesday through Friday: 48 percent to 40 percent. That’s similar to Clinton’s lead in a Muhlenberg College poll conducted Oct. 20-26 for the Allentown Morning Call: 46 percent to 41 percent.

Nearly all the interviews for the battleground-state polls released on Sunday were conducted before congressional Republicans disclosed a letter Comey, the FBI director, had sent to Capitol Hill, informing a number of relevant congressional committees that the bureau is planning to investigate additional emails possibly related to Clinton’s improper use of a private server while secretary of state.

It’s too early to assess the fallout of Comey’s letter, but the first hints emerged Sunday in the form of the ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll. The initial evidence indicates voters aren’t moved by the new disclosure to large degrees.

First, the horse race: On Saturday morning, Clinton held a 2-point among likely voters surveyed last Monday through Thursday, 47 percent to 45 percent.

Sunday’s tracking poll release dropped interviews conducted last Monday and added calls made to voters Friday night, after news broke of Comey’s letter. The overall matchup changed little: Clinton now leads, 46 percent to 45 percent. But three of the first four nights of interviews were conducted before the Comey letter. (The first entirely post-Comey look at the race is slated for Wednesday morning, when the tracking poll will be comprised of interviews from Friday through Monday.)

But in the wake of Friday’s letter, pollsters added a question, informing respondents that “the FBI has announced it is reviewing additional emails in connection with its investigation of Clinton’s handling of classified information when she was secretary of state,” and that “Clinton said she did not mishandle classified information.”

Only about a third of likely voters, 34 percent, said the issue made them less likely to vote for Clinton. A majority, 63 percent, said it makes no difference.

The voters who said it made them less likely to vote for Clinton are mostly those who were already unlikely to support Clinton. A majority of Republicans, 52 percent, said the issue made them less likely to vote for Clinton.

Meanwhile, only 7 percent of Clinton supporters and 13 percent of self-identified Democrats said it made them less likely to vote for Clinton. Those are small percentages, but in a closer race, they will be the voters to watch — both nationally and in key states — as the issue develops over the final nine days of the election.