Using modeling from the University of Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said Monday that she still expects the peak of coronavirus cases to hit by the end of April or early May.

The modeling still isn't perfect, however, she said, because the state hasn't done enough testing to build models that are reliable. And different parts of the state may peak at different times.

U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said Sunday the coronavirus peak in the nation could be reached this week.

“This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment," he said on Fox News on Sunday.

And last week, President Donald Trump said during one of his briefings that Michigan could be facing between 1,000 and 4,500 deaths from the novel coronavirus, even with mitigation efforts fully in place. His comments were based on modeling done by the University of Washington's Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, founded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Whitmer said it would be a mistake to translate federal modeling into Michigan totals.

"When federal modeling looks at when the peak is, they can articulate an average, but we're going to have peaks in different parts of Michigan at different times," Whitmer said. "So the modeling that we're looking at is done by people here in Michigan at the University of Michigan. And while it's not perfect, because of the testing issues, we anticipate the peak will be at the end of April or early May at this juncture.

The state's chief medical executive, Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, said anyone who is predicting a specific peak for the coronavirus isn't being totally accurate.

"Our model is getting more and more accurate, but anyone who says they know a specific date when it's going to peak, I don't believe it's true at this point," she said. "But as we get more tests, we'll be able to get more precise with our modeling."

The University of Michigan’s School of Public Health modeling shows that by April 12, there will be roughly 36,610 confirmed cases of coronavirus with 4,100 people hospitalized, growing to 57,100 confirmed cases and 4,600 patients needing hospitalization by April 26. On Monday, the state reported, 17,221 coronavirus cases and 727 deaths. The task force consists of five epidemiologists, a professor of mathematics and a professor of internal medicine.

According to the model, which predicts coronavirus cases for metro Detroit out to April 27:

In Detroit, the number of confirmed cases on April 13 is projected to be 12,526, rising to 31,360 by April 27. On Monday, Detroit had 5,023 cases and 193 deaths.

In Oakland County, the U-M model predicts 7,118 cases by April 13 and 22,734 positive COVID-19 results by April 27. As of Monday afternoon, Oakland County had 3,380 cases and 185 deaths.

In Macomb County, the number of projected cases is 5,645 by April 13 and 14,640 by April 27. On Monday, Macomb had 2,159 cases and 100 deaths.

In Wayne County, minus the Detroit numbers, the number of projected cases is 8,729 by April 13 and 18,467 by April 27. On Monday, Wayne had 3,247 cases and 153 deaths.

The state also is looking at the models from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, which projects Michigan will reach its peak number of deaths on Thursday, with 190 deaths in a single day, and a total number of deaths in the state of 2,963 by August.

So far, the state has tested more than 40,000 people, and as of Monday afternoon, more than 17,000 people had tested positive and 727 have died from COVID-19.

The model cited by Trump projects a median number of about 85,000 deaths across the U.S. with most coming between now and June 1, though it also suggests the number could be as low as about 40,000 and as high as 160,000. Trump and other White House officials said the model could actually be low, however, saying there could be between 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, based on what has been seen in other countries, including Italy.

Whitmer pointed to a graphic in the New York Times last week that showed from cellphone data that Michiganders have been among the best in the nation to limit travel after the stay at home order was put in place last month.

An extension of that order is likely to come sometime this week, Whitmer said.

"We’re looking at an additional order for staying at home," she said. "The most effective tool that we have, is to slow the spread and that’s why we did a stay-at-home order as early as we did. We can anticipate an additional (stay home) order in the next week."

Contact Kathleen Gray: 313-223-4430, kgray99@freepress.com or on Twitter @michpoligal.