Commuters who already pay the highest fares in America should brace themselves for another NJ Transit fare hike, experts and advocates warn.

That's because cash-strapped NJ Transit lost $25 million this summer during Amtrak's Penn Station project, while also facing declining ridership.

This could add up to a dreaded fare hike in Fiscal Year 2019, which begins sooner than you might think, on July 1, those who watch NJ Transit closely say.

NJ Transit would not address the prospects of a fare hike, saying it's too soon to know whether the agency will look to raise fares for the third time since 2010.

The same experts who are sounding the warning on the fare increase say there is hope, and that hope lies in Governor-elect Phil Murphy, who has to the power to spare commuters from a fare increase by stabilizing funding, they say.

"I'd say that, yes, we are (headed for an increase) unless the new administration prioritizes transit in its first budget," said Jon Whiten, New Jersey Policy Perspective vice-president. "That would be the easiest way to stave off a fare hike."

Lackawanna Commuter Coalition president David Peter Alan predicted in July that NJ Transit would have to raise fares next year due to fiscal constraints after its budget was approved.



"Whatever the legislature doesn't give them, they'll have to get from riders," he said. "I think they're preparing for one."

Since 2015, the agency has earned less fare revenue than it predicted, which officials blamed on gas prices making it cheaper to drive. NJ Transit's fiscal year 2017 operating budget counted on the agency earning $17 million more in fare revenues. Instead, ridership and revenue dropped.

Compounding the problem is the $16.8 million the agency lost by sending Morris & Essex trains to Hoboken instead of New York during Amtrak's summer track project at Penn Station, which reduced rail service by 25 percent, said Lisa Torbic, an NJ Transit spokeswoman.

"We expect the total expenses related to the Amtrak summer repair work at PSNY to equal approximately $25 million," she said.

NJ Transit also blamed Amtrak for a $5.5 million loss in passenger revenues in August due to the track project, which lasted from July 7 to Sept. 2, according to an agency financial report

NJ Transit relies too much on fares, which make up about 50 percent of the operating budget, experts said.

"This highlights the underlying problem of how NJT's operating budget is funded," said Janna Chernetz, Tri-State Transportation Campaign New Jersey Policy director. "This is both unsustainable and inequitable."

NJ Transit increased fares by a maximum of 25 percent, except for in-state bus fares, in 2010 and eliminated discounts for riding outside peak commuting hours. Riders were hit with another 9 percent fare hike in 2015.

"We're coming off eight years of a governor and legislators cutting the agency's subsidy by 90 percent, and fare increases of more than 30 percent, said Michael Phelan, co-founder of the New Jersey Commuter's Action Network. "Why should we pay more for that? ... New Jersey already has the highest fares of any comparable system in the country, along with the highest equipment breakdown rates."

Cost cutting that doesn't reduce service also should be made, experts said.

"Without identifying new (revenue) sources, NJT will have to look at operating efficiencies, but that must not include service reductions," Chernetz said.

Transit advocates and experts fear another fare hike will make riding the train or bus unaffordable, especially for the working poor and underemployed. They're concerned that will spur a vicious cycle of ridership decline and service cuts.

Those who don't ride the train or bus could bear the brunt of more traffic as commuters return to their cars.

"A fare increase will only cause more riders to ditch the train for the car," said Len Resto, New Jersey Association of Railroad Passengers president. "If there is even a 1/100th of 1 percent (of a fare increase), transit riders are going to rise in revolt, given what they've had to endure the past several years.

"There is only so much riders can stand," he said.

Larry Higgs may be reached at lhiggs@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @commutinglarry. Find NJ.com on Facebook.

