With lots to get into this week, we have no time to waste. Waivers have already run through, but there are still some very interesting defenses readily available in leagues.

As I was going through the Stream-O-Matic numbers this week, I couldn’t help but notice that there’s just a big cluster of teams similarly rated. There’s always that one week where it’s really difficult to pick between several defenses for a given week. When in doubt, I like to look ahead to the next week’s matchup as a tiebreaker. This week, in particular, there are multiple opportunities to get a combo deal for defenses with multiple favorable matchups in a row. I will identify those for you!

Week 9 starts today – let’s boogie!

2018 Fantasy Football Week 9 Defense Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

Own% : Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.

: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings. Location : Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.

: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams. Wind : The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.

: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions. Vegas : Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.

: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed. oSAC% : To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack.

: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack. oINT% : The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.

: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions. FPPG : I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.

: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses. DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

Overall Defense Own% Opp Location Wind Vegas oSAC% oINT% FPPG DVOA 141.0 Bears 95.4 BUF 0 0 26 25 26 32 32 112.0 Cowboys 44.1 TEN 5 0 25 23 19 18 22 112.0 Broncos 45.0 HOU 5 0 20 20 17 24 26 111.0 Texans 91.8 DEN 0 0 15 18 22 28 28 97.0 Panthers 60.5 TB 5 0 12 16 25 23 16 95.0 Vikings 86.8 DET 5 0 19 8 18 25 20 94.0 Seahawks 20.6 LAC 5 0 16 7 6 29 31 94.0 Jets 28.9 MIA 0 0 13 15 21 22 23 93.0 Ravens 87.5 PIT 5 0 21 1 13 26 27 92.0 Redskins 47.9 ATL 5 0 18 17 3 30 19 92.0 Bills 11.1 CHI 5 0 17 12 15 14 29 84.0 Dolphins 24.2 NYJ 5 0 24 14 24 7 10 80.0 Chiefs 46.7 CLE 0 0 23 21 16 13 7 74.0 Titans 25.3 DAL 0 0 14 22 9 15 14 72.0 Chargers 43.3 SEA 0 0 10 24 12 11 15 71.0 49ers 3.8 OAK 5 0 22 10 20 5 9 71.0 Patriots 72.6 GB 5 0 7 19 2 21 17 69.0 Browns 25.2 KC 5 0 4 2 11 17 30 63.0 Raiders 1.5 SF 0 0 9 26 23 1 4 60.0 Steelers 40.5 BAL 0 0 8 6 8 27 11 59.0 Rams 98.2 NO 0 0 3 3 1 31 21 51.0 Packers 17.8 NE 0 0 1 4 14 19 13 44.0 Cardinals 41.3 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 20 24 43.0 Saints 14.5 LAR 5 0 5 11 10 6 6 41.0 Jaguars 86.3 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 16 25 35.0 Lions 8.0 MIN 0 0 6 13 5 8 3 28.0 Eagles 87.4 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 10 18 28.0 Falcons 3.7 WAS 0 0 11 9 4 2 2 24.0 Colts 39.7 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 12 12 18.0 Buccaneers 1.3 CAR 0 0 2 5 7 3 1 17.0 Bengals 6.3 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 9 8 9.0 Giants 0.9 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 4 5

Defenses on Bye Week: Bengals, Cardinals, Colts, Eagles, Giants, Jaguars

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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It’s the Demaryius Thomas bowl! Seriously though, how weird is that situation? DT gets traded from the Broncos to the Texans, then immediately plays his former team the next week. That’s gotta be a first, right? Additionally, you would think that the Texans would be done with former Broncos after the whole Brock Osweiler disaster.

Enough with the chatter, let’s talk about why this game is here. It’s going to be very low on the list of the first flight of games as far as ‘watchability’ goes. The third- and fourth-ranked defenses according to the Stream-O-Matic should be keeping their opposing offenses in check. That’s about all I have to say really about this. If the game were in Houston, I would pick the Texans by two possessions. However, it’s at Mile High Stadium, which is always a tough place to travel to for opposing teams.

I’m good playing both defenses in this matchup, but I am much more confident in the Texans at their ranking than the Broncos. I would personally rank the Denver defense as a low-end DST1, but the Stream-O-Matic always knows so we shall see.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

As the only 60-point over/under of the week, it would be dumb not to place the Rams–Saints matchup here. If there’s one team that can match the Rams offense point-for-point, it’s the Saints. Vegas knows it, too.

You weren’t playing the Saints defense. In fact, I would argue that no defense should be played against the Rams hyper-efficient offense. However, look how far down the Stream-O-Matic chart the Rams defense plummeted! They are typically in the top ten no matter the matchup, but this week is different. Playing at the Superdome against an offense that ranks in the top three in both sacks allowed and interceptions will do that to you.

I got nothing else here – just start your skill position guys in this one!

Notables

Dallas Cowboys, DST2 (44.1%)

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With both teams coming off their bye week, this Monday night matchup between the Titans and Cowboys is bound to be a boring one. In fact, I may take a break from football-watching this Monday. Hey, any reason to not watch the Jason Witten-Booger MacFarland duo announce is good for me.

From a defensive standpoint though, there’s fantasy value to be had here with the Cowboys. They haven’t had the toughest schedule in the league, but they still have taken advantage of it. They haven’t allowed more than 24 points all season and average about 17 points allowed per game. Despite the solid defense, they haven’t been accruing fantasy points because of the lack of turnovers and sacks.

Enter the Titans, who are on the wrong side of league average for both interception and sack percentage. Sometimes that’s okay if you’re still scoring points, but Tennessee has averaged just 15.1 PPG this season. That’s good for third-worst in the NFL. They’ve only scored over 20 points once this season and it took overtime to do it. The Titans are easily one of the top five offenses to stream against right now.

As a home favorite with a great matchup, I’m rolling out the Cowboys defense with great confidence in Week 9.

Seattle Seahawks, DST7 (20.6%)

The Seahawks find themselves in a cluster of similarly rated teams on the Stream-O-Matic this week. I understand that Seattle’s defense has been very good this season, but I am completely out on them this week.

The Chargers, who are coming off their bye week, are particularly tough on opposing fantasy defenses. They rank in the top eight in both SAC% and INT%, the two parameters used for this chart. While the Seahawks have fared well defensively fantasy-wise, look at the teams they’ve played compared to the Chargers. They’ve played one above-average offense, the Rams, and gave up 33 points en route to a negative point total by ESPN standards. The other teams they’ve faced – Broncos, Bears, Cowboys, Cardinals, Raiders, Lions – are average or worse offensively.

I think Seattle is a weird case this week and, while a positive fantasy output is certainly in the range of outcomes, I’m just not interested in figuring out. There are other options that I feel more comfortable with that are more readily available like the Cowboys or another team…

New York Jets, DST8 (28.9%)

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Once again, the Stream-O-Matic likes the Jets. Rather than ignore it this week, I’m actually buying in for two reasons.

The matchup against the Dolphins is a good one. Outside of a surprise win against the Bears in overtime, they’ve been faltering with Brock Osweiler under center. It’s been mostly because of the defense, but that certainly plays into things here for opposing fantasy defenses. With Vegas expecting this to be a competitive game, the Dolphins will be running their normal Osweiler-led offense against a great defense by DVOA standards. I like the odds there.

Secondly, the Jets host the Bills next week. Do I really need to go into more depth on that?

Kansas City Chiefs, DST13 (46.7%)

Because the Cleveland Browns provide such a nice floor for opposing fantasy defenses, the Chiefs have to be in play for your DST slot. I talked about it last week with the Steelers – the Browns offense is turning the ball over and allowing sacks at a high rate. They are almost an auto-stream for opposing defenses, especially now that their coaching carousel is spinning wildly.

Looking further into this, the Chiefs defense has actually been playing very well in games where they jump out to big leads. The game flow is very favorable here for Kansas City with Pat Mahomes leading the charge. In three of the last four weeks, the Chiefs defense has given you top ten fantasy weeks at the position.

They’ve shown the ability to produce fantasy numbers despite their DVOA ratings. I suspect this week will be no different. The Stream-O-Matic will regret ranking them so low. Also, it doesn’t hurt that they have a matchup against Arizona in Week 10. Everyone loves a good 2-for-1 deal!

Early Top 10 for Week 10

It’s that time of year where the contenders may have an extra spot to rotate a second DST. I don’t suggest doing that until the playoffs, but it’s certainly possible. Let’s see how the Stream-O-Matic would turn out while running next week’s matchups:

Jets (vs. BUF) Rams (vs. SEA) Bears (vs. DET) Redskins (at TB) Patriots (at TEN) Chiefs (vs. ARI) Bills (at NYJ) Packers (vs. MIA) Seahawks (at LAR) Eagles (vs. DAL)

As previously mentioned, if you trust the Jets or Chiefs this week, it’ll make for a great preemptive add for Week 10. The Bills and Packers are underowned defenses that should be streamable in Week 10. Check your waiver wire for a dropped Eagles defense as well.

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