Maxime Bernier addresses the crowd in Toronto as he reveals the People's Party of Canada's candidates for some of the city's ridings. Richard Lautens/Toronto Star

People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier is running neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in his southeastern Quebec riding, suggests a new Mainstreet Research poll for iPolitics.

Bernier, a one time cabinet minister and Conservative leadership candidate, was the choice of 28.7 per cent of respondents in the phone survey of 640 voters in Beauce, though the Tories were close behind at 27.7 per cent. With a margin of error of 3.87 per cent, Bernier’s lead is statistically insignificant.

Furthermore, 16.3 per cent of respondents said they were undecided, while 16 per cent backed the Liberals, with the Bloc Québécois far back at 4.9 per cent. The Greens scored 3.2 per cent, while the NDP was relegated to last with 1.4 per cent.

The other party option was selected by 1.9 per cent. The survey was conducted on a single day — August 5.

However, Bernier’s narrow lead is overturned when including leaning voters, as more undecided voters in the poll opted for the Conservatives than the People’s Party leader.

With the undecided block reduced to eight per cent, the Conservatives were the top choice at 30.9 per cent, compared to 30.3 per cent for Bernier. The Liberals rose to 17.7 per cent, the Bloc grew to 5.5 per cent, while the Greens (3.4), the other party choice (2.3) and NDP (1.8) all expectedly saw some moderate growth in support.

The needle barely moves when undecided voters are excluded, with the Conservatives moving up to 33.5 per cent, the People’s Party rising to 33 per cent and the Liberals seeing an uptick to 19.3 per cent. The Bloc stood at 5.9 per cent, the Greens hit 3.7 per cent, the other party choice grabbing 2.5 per cent and the NDP up slightly to 1.9 per cent.

Bernier has represented the Beauce riding continuously since 2006, winning every time with no less than 50 per cent of the vote. A former cabinet minister in Stephen Harper’s government, Bernier left the Conservative caucus in late August, calling the party “too intellectually and morally corrupt to be reformed.” He has said his libertarian-leaning People’s Party intends to run candidates in all 338 federal ridings in 2019.

Sixty-six per cent of poll respondents said they were satisfied with Bernier’s work as their federal MP, including 34 per cent who claimed to be very satisfied. Comparatively, 25 per cent said they were not satisfied with him, with 10 per cent reporting to be very unsatisfied. The remaining nine per cent didn’t say which way they leaned.

Respondents were also tested for their views on key proposals or ideas floated by Bernier’s party. Fifty-six per cent of respondents agreed at least somewhat with the statement that mass immigration and multiculturalism will lead to social conflicts, including 30 per cent who strongly agreed. Conversely, 32 per cent disagreed, including nine per cent that strongly disagreed with the statement. The remaining 11 per cent didn’t say.

When asked for their thoughts on leaving action on climate change to the provinces, 46 per cent of respondents disagreed, compared to 44 per cent that agreed. Meanwhile, 67 per cent agreed that having a gender-balanced cabinet was not a priority and 56 per cent disagreed that it was important to reopen the debate on abortion.

The most contentious response came to the question on ending Canada’s supply management system that provides a protected market for dairy, egg and poultry producers. Forty-two per cent of respondents agreed with Bernier that supply management should be abolished, while 37 per cent disagreed and 21 per cent didn’t say which option they preferred.