Courtesy OGWC

Ted Sickinger | The Oregonian/OregonLive

The Oregon Global Warming Commission released its biennial report to the Legislature this week. In fact, the report comes just a year after the 2017 version, as the commission now plans to report in even-numbered years to give lawmakers information as they develop new legislation – particularly this year, as they consider what could become the nation’s second economy wide carbon cap and trade system.

Here are four key takeaways from the report, backed by another year of data:

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Eagle Creek Columbia River Gorge Saturday, Sept. 2, 2017.

Mark Graves

IT’S HAPPENING NOW

The effects of climate change are no longer predicted. They are here today, they are serious, and they are costing Oregonians money and affecting their lifestyles and health. The state is suffering through drought, reduced snowpack, increased wildfire and impacts to fisheries. Larger forest and grassland fires are now more frequent, a consequence of warmer, drier summers. The fire season begins earlier and ends later.

The report cited the three-week closure of Interstate 84 in 2017 due to the Eagle Creek Fire, and its impact on personal and commercial traffic, as well as the $2 million loss reported by the Oregon Shakespeare Festival, which canceled 26 performances this summer due to wildfire smoke. That figure doesn’t include forgone lodging, food, and drink revenues in the event city of Ashland. In 2017, Sisters canceled its September Folk Festival, which may have cost the community in excess of $1 million.

Oregon’s average temperature has risen by 1-degree Fahrenheit in the last 30 years, an increase associated with a nearly threefold increase in the incidence of heat-related illness, the report said. The 2015 snow drought severely impacted the ski season, undermined water supplies, hydropower production and fish passage in the summer…The list goes on, and even if global greenhouse gas emissions came to a stop tomorrow, the report said, the impacts would continue and intensify for decades.

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Courtesy OGWC

OREGON NOT LIKELY TO MEET ITS GOALS

Oregon greenhouse emissions are rising again. The state is not on track to meet its emissions-reduction goals and won’t get there under current policies.

Preliminary state emissions data from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality show at least 64 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2017. That compares with 62 million metric tons in 2015 and 60 million in 2014. The state’s goals are to slash emissions to 51 million metric tons by 2020, 33 million metric tons by 2035 and 14 million tons by 2050.

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Grant Butler | The Oregonian/OregonLive

VEHICLES NEED TO BRING US DOWN

The main culprit is transportation emissions, primarily from trucks and passenger vehicles. This sector is the largest source of emissions in Oregon, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total. For policymakers, it is the toughest to regulate as it involves emissions from millions of drivers.

The DEQ puts 2017 transportation emissions at almost 26 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, up more than 20 percent from 2013 and 2014. The commission attributes that to such factors as high employment levels, low gasoline prices and automakers’ bid to maximize profits by selling SUVs and pickups rather than electric or compact cars.

There are three main ways to lower those emissions: Boost the conversion rate to electric vehicles; substantially increase public transit; and modify urban design over time to support electric vehicles, bikes, walking and public transport.

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In this file photo from 2008, coal mined in Wyoming is piled at the power generating station in Boardman operated by Portland General Electric, which agreed to close the plant by 2020.

(Brent Wojahn/Staff)

UTILITIES ARE MAKING THE GRADE

The electric utility sector, which accounts for about a quarter of Oregon’s emissions, is on a path that would satisfy its proportionate share of state emissions reductions.

This is largely dependent on two companies, Portland General Electric and PacifiCorp, which together serve two-thirds of Oregon electric customers. (Most of the rest are served by publicly owned utilities, which primarily use hydropower). It is also largely a question of when the two companies decide to retire the coal-fired power plants that currently serve their customers. With declining costs and increasing efficiency of wind, solar and energy storage technologies, it may be possible to cost-effectively achieve even faster reductions in this sector’s emissions than currently projected.

- Ted Sickinger

tsickinger@oregonian.com

503-221-8505; @tedsickinger

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