The General Assembly expressly directed the legislators and consultant responsible for drawing the 2016 Plan to rely on 'political data' – that is, past election results specifying whether, and to what extent, particular voting precincts had favored Republican or Democratic candidates, and therefore were likely to do so in the future – to draw a districting plan that would ensure Republican candidates would prevail in the vast majority of the State's congressional districts, and would continue to do so in future elections.

A three-judge panel in the U.S. District Court in the Middle District of North Carolina has issued a decision declaring that the congressional district boundaries drawn by the state are unconstitutional.

The current map of congressional districts does show one peculiarly shaped district, obviously the product of gerrymandering: the 12th:



Derived from Wikipedia.

But the 12th is one of two N.C. districts gerrymandered by law to elect black members of Congress, the so-called "minority-majority districts."

This decision could force redrawing of the congressional districts before the November midterms, which our political director Richard Baehr estimates could cost the GOP three or four seats in the House. The decision will be appealed, but in a similar case in Pennsylvania earlier this year, the Supreme Court declined to take up the appeal.

The Pennsylvania redistricting could cost the GOP five or six seats in the estimate of our political director.

With a 4-4 court until Kavanaugh is confirmed, it is unlikely that the Court would act against the lower court decision anyway.

Ten seats may swing to the Democrats thanks to our black-robed masters.