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“The summer of 2018 remains the target date for the move from the Centre Block. Contingency planning, scheduling, cost estimating and risk analysis are critical components of effective project management,” said department spokesman Jean-François Létourneau.

Using an analysis of the construction market and the prices of commodities, labour costs, construction and inflation, along with historic averages, he said the department forecasts added costs of about $11 million per month if parliamentarians don’t move out this summer.

“If a delay does occur, PSPC will work closely with the parliamentary partners to mitigate the potential cost increases,” Létourneau said.

Any increases in cost would come on top of the existing $3-billion cost to update the whole parliamentary precinct over 20 years.

The same draft email suggested that staying could be risky, since Centre Block is approaching “a critical risk of failure.” Systems inside the building are increasingly in disrepair, it said, “which has the potential to impact parliamentary operations and the safety of occupants and visitors.”

The building “remains safe,” according to Létourneau, but “building condition assessments indicate the Centre Block’s structural, mechanical and electrical systems are at risk. The building is being monitored closely and necessary repairs are being made to mitigate risks. The health and safety of parliamentarians and visitors to Parliament are the number one priority.”

There are concerns, too, that the new Commons chamber in the West Block, and the new Senate digs down the street at the Government Conference Centre — Ottawa’s old central train station — may not be ready in time for a move this summer.