ISW routinely updates and refines its assessment of the operating areas held by ISIS in Iraq and Syria based on openly available sources. ISIS’s activity since December 2018 strengthens our prior assessment of its support zones and demonstrates its further consolidation in these areas.ISIS’s recent consolidation has included its leveraging of existing support networks across Syria and Iraq to shift fighters and material out of its final zone of territorial control in Syria:ISIS’s resurgent campaign is accelerating in the urban centers of Ar-Raqqa City, Mosul, and Fallujah. ISW previously depicted support and attack zones in these cities. It is now expanding these attack zones to account for increased activity by ISIS since December 2018.U.S. President Donald Trump shared a map generated by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) of the “residual” presence of ISIS on March 20. The map is similar to ISW’s assessment of ISIS’s support zones in Iraq and Syria with several major differences.

Image: Defense Intelligence Agency Map with ISW markings associated with the nine zones discussed below.

Manbij : ISIS retains a networked presence in Manbij in Aleppo Province in Northern Syria that it is using to attack the SDF and U.S.-Led Coalition. ISIS detonated an SVEST killing nineteen individuals including four U.S. military and civilian personnel in Manbij on January 16. ISIS also detonated a SVBIED targeting a marketplace southwest of Manbij on March 8. ISIS attacked a checkpoint of the SDF west of Manbij on March 26. The DIA does not depict this operating area for ISIS. Northern Deir ez-Zour / Southern Hasaka : ISIS is mounting an attack campaign against the ground line of communication used by the SDF and U.S.-Led Coalition in Northern Deir ez-Zour and Southern Hasaka Provinces (as discussed above). The DIA does not depict this operating area for ISIS. Central Syria : ISIS operates in uninhabited desert areas west of the Euphrates River Valley. ISIS transits through support zones across the Homs Desert and frequently attacks pro-regime forces deployed to secure oil and natural gas infrastructure in areas ranging from Palmyra to the Syrian-Iraqi Border. [17] ISIS’s Amaq News Agency, for example, released a video filmed at an unidentified location in the Homs Desert showing militants with two dead Russians and one live Syrian on April 7. Other reporting corroborated claims that ISIS ambushed pro-regime forces between the T2 Station and Mayadin in Central Syria. [18] ISIS tends to attack convoys rather than fixed positions in this area, demonstrating that its goal is likely a limited disruption of pro-regime freedom of movement and the generation of propaganda highlighting its anti-regime operations. The DIA has underrepresented this operating area for ISIS. Southern Syria : ISIS retains a residual support zone east of Suwayda Province. Pro-regime forces frequently clash with ISIS in the Al-Safa Region in Eastern Suwayda Province, most recently on March 26. [19] Pro-regime forces claimed to clear ISIS from Al-Safa on November 19, 2018. [20] ISIS nonetheless remains active in the area, likely exploiting extensive natural tunnels. The DIA does not depict this operating area for ISIS. Arbil : ISIS retains a support zone in Arbil City. Three Kurdish high school students stormed the Arbil Province Governor’s Building in Arbil City on July 21, 2018 and temporarily held two hostages before security forces killed the assailants. [21] Kurdish security forces later arrested an Iraqi Kurdish cleric who radicalized the attackers on July 24, 2018. Kurdish security forces arrested eight members of a financing network linked to ISIS in Arbil City in October 2018 and later arrested eight other ISIS militants in Arbil City on January 16. [22] The DIA does not depict this operating area for ISIS. Southern Diyala Province : ISIS holds a durable support zone in Southern Diyala Province. ISIS began conducting hit-and-run attacks in the Buhriz Subdistrict south of t Baqubah in mid-2018. [23] ISIS increased its attack tempo against security forces, local tribal figures, and commercial sites in Buhriz in January 2019 and Buhriz Subdistrict was reportedly “almost under the control of ISIS” by February 2019. [24] ISIS also conducts attacks on civilians and security forces from safe havens near Muqdadiyah northeast of Baqubah. A municipal official claimed that ISIS controls several rural villages west of Muqdadiyah in January 2019. [25] The DIA does not depict these operating areas for ISIS. Northern Baghdad Belts : ISIS is present in the Northern Baghdad Belts despite clearing operations by the ISF and PMF. ISIS has repeatedly attacked security forces along the highways north of Baghdad. ISIS most recently ambushed the ISF in Tarmiyah north of Baghdad on March 19. [26] The DIA has underrepresented this operating area for ISIS. Southwest Baghdad Belts : ISIS is expanding its support zone in the southwestern quadrant of the Baghdad Belts (as discussed above). The DIA does not depict this operating area for ISIS. Khanaqin : ISIS retains both a support and attack zone along the Iraqi-Iranian Border stretching into Halabja Province in Iraqi Kurdistan. ISIS is likely using mountain routes in Northern Khanaqin District to cross between Iraq and Iran. Its activity in the area has prompted multiple deployments by the PMF. PMF Diyala Axis Command deployed forces to secure Khanaqin District in early February 2019. [27] The 20th PMF Brigade also deployed members to provide additional security Khanaqin District in early March 2019. [28] It remains unclear whether these deployments have affected ISIS. Similar PMF deployments elsewhere in Diyala and Kirkuk Provinces have consistently failed to disrupt ISIS and it is unlikely that the PMF will be more effective in Khanaqin.



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[1] [“Deir ez-Zour Military Commander Survives Assassination Attempt in Rural Deir ez-Zour,”] Deir ez-Zour 24, February 15, 2019, https://deirezzor24(.)net/archives/9356; [“Spokesperson for Jazeera Storm Campaign Survives Assassination Attempt,”] Deir ez-Zour 24, February 15, 2019, https://en.deirezzor24(.)net/the-spokesperson-for-al-jazeera-storm-campaign-survives-an-assassination-attempt/.

[2] Wladirmir van Wilgenburg, “At Least Eight People, Including SDF Members, Killed in Explosions in Raqqa,” Kurdistan 24, April 9, 2019, http://www.kurdistan24(.)net/en/news/87b1a94e-3d45-4ea4-a7af-e9dee6480f04.

[3] [“Security Forces Set Controlled Detonation of Car Bomb North of Babil,”] Al-Sumaria, January 30, 2019, https://www.alsumaria(.)tv/news/259470/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%81%D8%AE%D8%AE%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A/ar.

[4] [“Terrorist Arrested at a Checkpoint at Entrance of North Babil,”] Al-Ghad Press, February 19, 2019, https://www.alghadpress(.)com/news/%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82/191768/%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A5%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%AF-%D9%86%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%AE%D9%84-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A.

[5] [“Outbreak of Armed Conflict Between Popular Mobilization Forces and ISIS North of Babil,”] Rudaw, April 10, 2019, http://www.rudaw(.)net/arabic/middleeast/iraq/10042019.

[6] [“Including Halbousi…Sulaymaniyah Topples the Largest Terror Cell,”] Shafaaq, April 2, 2019, http://www.shafaaq(.)com/ar/Ar_NewsReader/3203379e-fb7e-4fd0-b74a-90d5d073e4f7.

[7] [“Karamian Asayish Announce the Arrest of a Member of ISIS,”] Rudaw, April 11, 2019, http://www.rudaw(.)net/NewsDetails.aspx?pageid=439019.

[8] [“Counter-Terrorism Announces Start of an Operation to Hunt Down Elements of ISIS in the Hamrin Hills,”] Al-Sumaria, April 11, 2019, https://www(.)alsumaria.tv/news/266281/%D9%85%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A1-%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81/ar.

[9] “After Smuggling 142 of ISIS Families to Turkey, New Families Preparing to Cross the Border with 22 Fighters of an SDF Battalion Are Arrested After Clashes,” SOHR, March, 18, 2019, http://www.syriahr(.)com/en/?p=121212.

[10] [“SDF and Security Forces Arrest 70 People Accused of Forming ISIS Cells and Campaign Targeting Four to Five Thousand Elements Hidden in the East of the Euphrates,”] SOHR, February 7, 2019, http://www.syriahr(.)com/?p=307205.

[11] “Prominent Raqqa Tribal Leader Assassinated in Attack Claimed by IS,” Kurdistan 24, November 2, 2018, http://www.kurdistan24(.)net/en/news/ac9d25db-9bab-44ee-9922-e6b0fa71509a.

[12] [“Three Explosions Hit the City of Raqqa, Expecting Dead and Wounded,”] Enab Baladi, April 9, 2019, https://www.enabbaladi(.)net/archives/293437.

[13] [“170 Thousand Dollars Inside an ISIS Den in East Mosul,”] Al-Ghad Press, April 1, 2019, https://www.alghadpress(.)com/news/%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82/196535/%D8%B6%D8%A8%D8%B7-170-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84-%D9%88%D9%83%D8%B1-%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B5%D9%84.

[14] [“Source Reveals the Existence of Daesh Cells for the Targeting of Mukhtars and Civilians in Namiyah,”] Al-Sumaria, February 26, 2019, https://www.alsumaria(.)tv/news/261883/%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%AA%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85/ar.

[15] [“Terrorist Operation in Fallujah Thwarted,”] Al-Sumaria, January 23, 2019, https://www.alsumaria(.)tv/news/258687/%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B7-%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D9%84%D9%88%D8%AC%D8%A9/ar.

[16] [“The Arrest of a Forging Ring Turning Elements of Daesh Dead and Victims of Terrorism in Fallujah,”] Al-Ghad Press, February 12, 2019, https://www.alghadpress(.)com/news/%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82/190808/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A8%D8%B6-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B9%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B2%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%84%D9%85.

[17] “U.S. Commandos and Special Coalition Forces Sweep Baghuz Tunnels and Caves Searching for Abductees and ISIS Riches and Leaders,” SOHR, March 27, 2019, http://www.syriahr(.)com/en/?p=122398.

[18] [“Detecting the Identity of Two Dead Assad Militia in Deir ez-Zour After Ambush,”] Orient News, February 24, 2019, https://orient-news(.)net/ar/news_show/162982/0/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D9%87%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%AF-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D9%83%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4.

[19] [“Two People Killed and Wounded by ISIS in Combing Operations by Regime Forces East of Suwayda,”] SMART, March 23, 2019, https://smartnews-agency(.)com/ar/wires/372865/%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%AC%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%B7-%D9%84%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82.

[20] Leith Aboufadel, “Daesh Suffers Devastating Defeat as Syrian Army Liberates Entire Al-Safa Region,” Al-Masdar News, November 19, 2018, https://www.almasdarnews(.)com/article/daesh-suffers-devastating-defeat-as-syrian-army-liberates-entire-al-safa-region.

[21] “Update: 3 Gunmen Who Attacked Erbil Governor’s Building Named,” Rudaw, July 23, 2018, http://www.rudaw(.)net/english/kurdistan/23072018.

[22] “Two Alleged ISIS Members, Six Suspects Arrested in Erbil,” Rudaw, January 17, 2019, http://www.rudaw(.)net/english/kurdistan/170120191.

[23] [“7 Civilians Shot Dead in Diyala,”] Rudaw, July 6, 2018, http://www.rudaw(.)net/arabic/middleeast/iraq/060720189.

[24] [“Source: Area Where Mortars Landed in Diyala Is Almost Under Control of Terrorist Groups,”] Al-Ghad Press, February 27, 2019, https://www.alghadpress(.)com/news/%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82/192595/%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%8A-%D8%B3%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%87%D9%8A-%D8%AA%D9%82.

[25] [“Director of Abu Saida: Most of the Villages of the South Under the Control of ISIS,”] Al-Sumaria, January 23, 2019, https://www.alsumaria(.)tv/news/258765/%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D8%B5%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B8%D9%85-%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%89-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%B1/ar.

[26] “Ambush North of Baghdad Kills 3 Iraqi Soldiers, Wounds 5,” Daily Star, March 19, 2019, http://www.dailystar.com(.)lb/News/Middle-East/2019/Mar-19/479219-ambush-north-of-baghdad-kills-3-iraqi-soldiers-wounds-5.ashx.

[27] [“PMF Is Deploying its Fighters in the Vicinity of Khanaqin”] Sot al-Iraq, February 2, 2019, https://www.sotaliraq(.)com/2019/02/03/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b4%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d8%b9%d8%a8%d9%8a-%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%87-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%ad%d9%8a%d8%b7-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%82/.

[28] [“PMF Carries Out Sweep to Secure Khanaqin Area,”] Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, March 11, 2019, http://al-hashed(.)net/2019/03/11/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b4%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d8%b9%d8%a8%d9%8a-%d9%8a%d9%86%d9%81%d8%b0-%d8%b9%d9%85%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d9%86/.

The DIA’s assessment lacks nine key support zones assessed with moderate confidence by ISW:There are multiple possible explanations for why the DIA does not depict these operating areas held by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The DIA may be unable to assess these operating areas through unclassified means. ISW may also have misattributed attacks conducted by other insurgents such as former Ba’athists operating outside the control of ISIS. ISW is actively looking for indicators to parse these groups as of April 2019. The DIA also mapped operating areas for ISIS near Aleppo City, Qamishli in Northern Syria, and Rutbah in Western Iraq not depicted by ISW. ISW does not possess sufficient evidence from the open-source to assess these zones as of April 2019. ISW routinely reevaluates its assessments and plans to publish a refined assessment as needed.