Liberal majority seen

TORONTO JUNE 9th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 739 likely Ontario voters three nights before election eve, more than 4-in-10 will vote Liberal (42%), compared to just more than a third who will vote PC (35%). This represents a very slight increase for the Liberals from last week (June 5, 39%) and a commensurate slight decline in the PC vote share (from 37%), both of which have contributed to widening the gap between the two parties from a virtual tie to a Liberal lead. The NDP have the support of one fifth (19%, stable from 17%), and few will vote Green (3%) or for other parties (1%).

The Liberal vote is common to the youngest (47%), females (46%), the least wealthy and the wealthiest (44% each) in the Toronto 416 area code (54%). PC support is characterized by the oldest (43%), males (44%), in lower income brackets ($20K to $40K - 46%) and in Eastern and Southwestern Ontario (40% each). The NDP's support is highest among younger groups (35 to 44 - 26%), females (25%), the least wealthy (39%) in Southwestern (22%) and Northern (21%) Ontario.

Notably, more than one third of those who voted NDP in the provincial election in 2011 will vote Liberal this time around (37%), and just more than half will vote NDP again (51%).





Liberal majority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would take a six seat majority of 61 (up from 57 last week), while the PCs would capture 35 (down from 39). The NDP would take just 11 seats, the same as last week.





Hudak's favourables inch up

Tim Hudak has the approval of 3-in-10 voters (30%) and this is a very slight improvement since May 28 (27%) and since May 20 (25%). His net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative -31. Kathleen Wynne has approval from more than a third (36%), comparable to May 28 (34%), and her net is a negative -17. Andrea Horwath enjoys the approval of one third (34%), which hasn't changed, and her net is -13, which also hasn't changed.





Wynne with ten point lead as best Premier

Close to 4-in-10 voters choose Kathleen Wynne as the best potential Premier (39%), considerably more now than select Tim Hudak (29%), and this represents a sharp increase for Wynne on this measure since last week (from 32%), and a small increase for Tim Hudak (from 26% on June 5). In this case it is Andrea Horwath who suffers, as the proportion seeing her as the best Premier drops from one fifth (18%) to considerably less than this (12%).





“From a tight race last week, the campaign has opened up a little, and the Liberals may be excused from breathing a little more easily. Andrea Horwath's NDP continue to bleed support to the Liberal Party, despite her best efforts to the contrary, and this change in party loyalties is starting to erode her potential as best Premier," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.