Last week, Nine's Today averaged 360,000 city viewers to Sunrise's 306,000: a gap of 54,000. Dominance threatened: Sunrise's Kochie and Sam have lost every official ratings month this year to arch-rival Today. It's a record for Karl Stefanovic and Lisa Wilkinson, now in their tenth year as co-hosts. We have to go back to November 2003, when Steve Liebmann and Tracy Grimshaw were presenting, to find a bigger winning margin. Given the volatile nature of breakfast TV ratings, one good week is no guarantee Today will win 2016. Far more concerning for Sunrise hosts David "Kochie" Koch and Samantha Armytage is the broader trend.

Today has won every ratings month this year. In February, it finished 5000 viewers ahead of Sunrise in the five major cities. In March, it won by a whopping 28,000 and in April, by 9000. In their tenth year together, Today hosts Karl and Lisa are riding high on consecutive monthly wins. Breakfast television rules Actually, more than 2.71 million people watch at least five minutes of Today every week, across city and regional areas. Sunrise draws a similarly colossal audience, and ABC News Breakfast also has a far bigger viewership than its overnight figures suggest.

Samantha Armytage replaced Melissa Doyle as Sunrise co-host in 2013. Credit:Screenshot Because TV ratings are averages – the length of a program divided by the number of people who watch – brekkie show sums are all over the shop. No one watches from start to finish, of course, so this drags down their average. To say that Sunrise and Today have "average audiences" around 360,000 – when they're doing well – is accurate. To say they have 360,000 "viewers" is misleading. 'I'm going to put it out there: Is Generation Y lazy?' Sam Armytage hosts a debate between Derryn Hinch and Pauline Hanson. Commercial breakfast shows rake in millions of dollars – because they reach millions of people. They're a good cross-promotional tool for other programs. Politicians use them to speak to mass audiences, and these interviews are then reported by other media – which raises the profile of the show even further.

Three years before Seven overtook Nine, Sunrise beat Today. That victory energised Seven staffers. Other Seven programs adopted elements of Sunrise's then-fresh style: loose, folksy, friendly. Today's Karl Stefanovic, discussing his famous blue suit with Lisa Wilkinson. Credit:Screenshot Enviously eyeing the millions in ad revenue, Ten had two attempts with Breakfast, then Wake Up! Both were quashed by the dominant players. The importance of breakfast TV has only grown. Networks fight like hell to be No. 1. Sam and Kochie host a debate between Liberal MP Michaelia Cash and Labor MP and Labor MP Jason Clare.

At this point, it's worth noting: a) Today attracts a bigger average audience on Channel Nine compared to Sunrise on Seven; b) Across Australia, Sunrise almost always draws a bigger average audience than Today. Wait, what? Once you add regional viewers to the mix, Sunrise comes out in front. (Today has only won two weeks in 2016 by this measure.)

But those regional viewers aren't watching Sunrise or Today on Seven or Nine. They're watching a regional affiliate station, such as Prime or WIN, which are different companies. Indeed, the "reach rule" bans metropolitan and regional TV stations from merging if they would broadcast to more than 75 per cent of the population. (Though the Turnbull government is considering scrapping this law.) Capital city markets (where Seven, Nine and Ten operate) are the most lucrative. This is why they get the most attention. And it's one reason most outlets focus on metropolitan ratings. Karl and Lisa are winning where it counts: in the big cities. They've won every month this year, and they're looking good for May after crushing Sunrise last week. Seven's next move Time to swing the axe in Seven's Martin Place studios? Not so fast.

It's easy to get spooked by a few monthly losses. Especially when you've been the top-rating brekkie show for 12 consecutive years. Except panicked decisions rarely bear fruit. For evidence, look at ... the Today program, a decade ago. We had Steve Liebmann and Tracy Grimshaw, followed by Karl Stefanovic and Grimshaw, followed by Karl and Jessica Rowe – and we all know how that ended. Sarah Murdoch filled in at some point. It was a revolving door, and viewers – let alone the hosts – never got a chance. It took a long time for Karl and Lisa to win. If Nine weren't so patient, it could still be cycling through low-rating presenters now.

Despite the threat from Today, Sunrise still has a huge – and loyal – audience. To meddle with the program too much might be counter-productive. Today's victory explained This year, Today got a new set. It re-branded Mornings (the program that screens afterwards) as Today Extra. And Karl and Lisa were rumoured to have scored a pay rise. So each of things boosted ratings, right? Not necessarily. Beware of confusing correlation with causation. This has been a slow build success, with dozens of different factors at play. The pay-off just happens to have occurred now.

There's also our tendency to focus on the things that can be measured. Which, inevitably, means we place too much emphasis on them. Today is succeeding, in part, because it listened to its audience. More importantly, it held its nerve and ran its own race. (Unlike the corporation that tried to "help" a soap opera with a fan focus group. Through mouthfuls of free cheetos, viewers declared they wanted characters Holden and Lily to re-unite. Of course, this deflated the narrative tension, and ratings sank.) Besides, Seven still has plenty to crow about. The network has beaten Nine every week this year, except for last week. The two tied the week prior, though a clear winner will likely emerge once time-shifted ratings are added. And in prime time, Seven has enjoyed its strongest start to the year since OzTam ratings began. The breakfast battle is not over yet.

These shows present a friendly face to their millions of viewers. Behind the scenes, the contest is fiercer than ever. Twitter: @Michael_Lallo