SWISS KEEGS’ 2014-15 DUKE BASKETBALL PREVIEW

@SwissKeegs

November 11, 2014



Outlook This Duke team will go as far as its three star freshmen will take it – and that’s a good thing. The trio of Jahil Okafor, Tyus Jones, and Justise Winslow are unique not only in their talent level, but also in their basketball IQs and the way they so naturally complement one another. These guys have spent a lot of time together playing for USA Basketball as well as various all-star events and it shows. The 6’11”, 270 lb. Okafor appears to have a once-in-a-decade skill level for an 18-year old of that size. He was the third freshman to be named the AP Preseason National Player of the Year and is the odds-on favorite to go first overall in the NBA Draft next Spring. Jones is a natural floor general whose decision-making ability and pinpoint passing should make Duke’s halfcourt offense flow so much better than in recent years. TJ can also push it in transition and knock down open shots. Winslow has the broad-shouldered, 6’6”, 225 lb. frame and athleticism of an NBA wing. He is extremely versatile – Winslow can knock down mid-range shots and corner threes, relentlessly take his man off the dribble and hit the offensive glass, defend, and dish. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any one of these guys on All-American teams and green rooms in the near future. Perhaps most impressively, the unselfish trio did not take a bad shot during the two exhibition games against Division II champs (defending NCAA D-II champion Central Missouri and CIAA winner Livingstone). They share the ball extremely well, consistently find the open man, and take high-percentage shots. And this approach is contagious. Jones handed out 17 assists against just 2 turnovers in 50 minutes as the team assisted on 42 of 64 field goals (66%) in the exhibition season. By comparison, last year’s team assisted on about 55% of makes, and only 54% in its two exhibition contests. There was little wasted ball movement and dribbling. We saw more decisive ball rotation around the perimeter, where the ball too frequently stalled in recent years, resulting in low percentage shots late in the shot clock. This ball rotation made it easier to feed Okafor inside, had players cutting more actively, and makes a team this long, athletic, and with so many skilled shot-makers an extreme handful to defend. After not having shot above 47% from the field since 2005-06, I see this team knocking down around 50% of its shots.

And there’s talent beyond the three highly-touted frosh – six McDonalds All-American to be exact. Duke’s success this season will hinge on whether it’s most talented (but youthful) players develop into some of the best players in college basketball, as well as how the veteran group accepts its complementary role. 6’8” junior Amile Jefferson seems locked into the starting power forward spot, with Matt Jones the early favorite to be the fifth starter. Jones, a 6’5” sophomore known primarily for his defensive tenacity, seems to have improved his outside shot (6-12 on threes in exhibition play) and added about ten pounds of muscle (now 210 lbs.). Jefferson and Jones appear to be excellent complements to the freshman trio – they’ll bring energy, defend, move without the ball, and shoot selectively, and don’t need the ball in their hands to be productive. That means former starters and double-digit scorers Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon appear set to lead the second unit. Cook is the Devils’ lone scholarship senior and has had some nice moments at Duke – All-ACC Third Team as a sophomore, 2.6:1 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks first all-time at Duke, 36% career three-point shooter. However, the offense too frequently stagnates when he’s running the point, as he has a tendency to take the air out of the ball dribbling outside the arc while lacking the necessary quickness to penetrate. He is saying all the right things about Tyus Jones’ skill level and his willingness to do what’s best for the team as he seeks his first Final Four appearance. Sulaimon has had an uneven career. A First-Team Freshman All-ACC selection two seasons ago, Sheed played limited minutes for much of last season and his numbers declined across most categories. He’s still a talented player – quick, long, good defender, and a solid (39% career) threat from deep. But he needs to make better decisions with the ball and finish more effectively around the rim. More than anyone else, I think Sulaimon has the potential to struggle adapting to having the ball in his hands less often. He still has NBA aspirations and hopefully he excels as the primary offensive threat for the second unit. The ball did not move as well in the exhibition season when Cook and Sulaimon played with TJ, Okafor and Winslow, although there was improvement from the first to second contest. The rest of the rotation consists of Marshall Plumlee, Grayson Allen, and Semi Ojeleye. At 6’11”, 255 lb., Plumlee provides size and great effort off the bench. Time will tell whether he approaches his NBA-playing brothers – Mason and Miles were late bloomers as well – but he won’t have to play big minutes for this team. Allen is the fourth member of the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class and was a McDonald’s All-American and consensus top-30 recruit in his own right. An athletic 6’4” wing, Allen won the Powerade Jam Fest dunk contest by dunking over the 6’11” Okafor. Allen has a nice-looking stroke from deep and plays a good team game. He has the potential to be a very good four-year player for Duke. Ojeleye is a physical specimen at 6’8”, 230 lb. – if I were an NFL executive I’d keep my eye on him as a potential tight end prospect. He remains raw and tends to fall in love with the three-point shot, but he’ll be a good spot player when Duke’s bigs are in foul trouble or we need some added muscle inside. It’s still unclear how strong this team will be on the defensive end. Last year’s team finished 116th in the country in defensive efficiency, and Duke lost a plus defender in Rodney Hood and its best shot-blocker (albeit not a strong defender overall) in Jabari Parker. I think this team takes a big step forward on the defensive end due to the presence of Okafor – it is going to be a lot tougher to score on Duke inside than a year ago, when the Devils allowed opponents to shoot 49% on two-point attempts. Jahil swatted 7 shots, both of the spectacular off-the-glass and fundamentally sound, barely jumping variety, in 45 exhibition minutes. Winslow has the potential to be a strong defender as well, given his strength and athleticism, and, while Tyus Jones lacks elite quickness, he has quick hands and should be a defensive improvement over recent Duke point guards. The transition defense was spotty in the first exhibition game against Livingstone, with poor communication at times. I’d chalk that up to the quality of the opponent, and expect the team to clean that up before the first real game tips off.

Another potential pitfall is how the team adapts when the games count and Duke faces zone defenses almost every night. No one in the country can handle Okafor one-on-one, and Winslow will also be a challenging assignment. Opponents will predictably pack into the paint, and force Duke to knock down perimeter shots. This team has several guys – Sulaimon, Allen, Cook, the Joneses, maybe Winslow – that can knock down 35-40% of their attempts beyond the arc. But, as we’ve seen in recent years, it can be tough to beat a quality opponent if those shots aren’t falling. Fortunately, this team is much more versatile offensively than recent Duke squads and should be a much improved transition team with TJ and Winslow leading the way. Okafor looks to be a thoughtful passer against the double team (though he’ll need to work on keeping the ball high and off the floor) and this team passes well enough to find seams in the zone rather than rely solely on looks from three. As a result, I expect fewer 5-10 minute offensive dry spells.



Season Predictions I view this team as appropriately ranked at #4 in the preseason AP Poll and #3 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. The talent is there to beat anyone – including Kentucky – but its stars are unproven on the college level and will surely experience ups and downs. Duke has a number of tough non-conference games this season, including Michigan State in Indianapolis, at Wisconsin, and UConn in East Rutherford. The ACC should be stronger at the top than it has been in a number of years, as the addition of Louisville gives the league four teams in the AP top 10. Duke, UNC, UVA and Louisville appear to comprise tier one in the league, with Syracuse and Pitt and also positioned for strong NCAA bids. Notre Dame, N.C. State, FSU, and Miami could also threaten the Devils on a bad day. Of the stronger teams in the league, Duke faces UNC (as always), Syracuse and Notre Dame home and away, plays on the road at Louisville and UVA, and hosts Pitt at Cameron. There are many losable games there, especially in Madison, Chapel Hill, Charlottesville, and Louisville. I’ll say Duke goes 26-5 through the regular season, including winning the ACC regular season title with a 14-4 record. Okafor is named First-Team All-American after averaging 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks to go along with 63% shooting. He could score 25 a night but is an unselfish star and will see his minutes limited in several blowout wins. Tyus Jones notches 8 points, 8 assists, and 2 steals a game, while shooting 46% from the field and 37% from deep – good enough for 2nd team All-ACC. TJ is joined by Winslow on the 2nd team, as Justise goes for 15 points, 6 boards, 2 assists, and 1.5 steals a night. Duke scores 84 points a game and gives up 67. As for the predictions that really matter – postseason play – I’ll say Duke gets tripped up in what should be the toughest ACC Tournament field in years. However, the Devils return to the Final Four for the first time since their 2010 title. I really believe they have as good a chance as anyone to cut down the nets, and appear to have better pieces to make a deep tourney run than any Duke squad since at least 2003-2004 (yes, I’m including the 2010 title team). This team has elite talents at the key point guard and center positions; shooting, size, and athleticism in its 10-man rotation; and an all-time great coach who is as hungry as ever.



Player Profiles Jahil Okafor – He’s better than I expected. His strong lower body allows him to get excellent position down low, and he has a variety of moves – spins left or right, jump hooks, bank shots, power moves – that are unstoppable one-on-one at the college level. He’s so fundamentally sound and deliberate with his impressive footwork that I can’t help but think of Tim Duncan. Not the Wake Forest version – Okafor is way more refined offensively than the Big Fundamental was at the same age; I mean the pro who is a silent killer. Jahil even has a great touch off the glass from 10-12 feet that is reminiscent of TD. Time will tell whether he’s the defensive force TD has been for two decades – the odds are against it, but he should be plenty good on D. Okafor’s body control and 7’6” wingspan allows him to go straight up and misdirect or block shots without fouling. If there’s any concern on that end so far, it’s that he tends to let guys get deep with penetration rather than stepping out to deter them, relying on his great size and timing to contest shots at the rim. He also needs to work on defending ball screen action, as he probably was not required to defend 18-20 feet from the basket at the high school level. Offensively, if I’m nit-picking, he needs to recognize where the double team is coming from (because it will come often) and keep the ball off the floor when there are multiple defenders swarming.

In 45 minutes against D-II foes in the exhibition season, Okafor posted 30 points (10-14 shooting from each of the field and the charity stripe), 14 boards (7 offensive), 7 blocks and 7 turnovers. A 20 and 10 season is not out of reach. Tyus Jones – If Okafor evokes images of Duncan working efficiently in the post, Jones reminds me of another Wake Forest great, Chris Paul. Again, not saying he’ll be as good – CP3 has been arguably the best point guard in the world for a decade – and he doesn’t have Paul’s physical strength, shot-making ability, or defensive prowess today. But, like the Clipper floor general, he can do a little bit of everything and always seems to make the right basketball play without superfluous dribbling. He knows when to push the tempo and when to slow things down. He knows where and when to get the ball to teammates where they can be most effective. Think smallish, pass-first point guards – Stockton, Rubio, Pooh Richardson, Pearl Washington.

While certainly capable of the highlight reel plays, it’s his more subtle work than impresses me. He’ll make the 40-foot pass to a streaking teammate with an angle in transition, rather than always have to lead the break himself. He’ll rotate the ball properly to the wings to better feed the post. I just can’t see this team experiencing the 5- and 10-minute scoring droughts with TJ at the helm that recent Duke teams (and fans!) have suffered too often. If we do elect to run some clock late in games, I’m confident TJ will still be able to get us a good look – either through dribble penetration or getting the ball quickly to a teammate who’s in a better position to make a play. Jones shot just 3-9 in 50 exhibition minutes, including 1-4 from deep. He has a solid if not Redick-like stroke, and I see him shooting well enough from the arc (35%+) to keep defenses honest. He’s also a capable finisher around the rim despite not being a high flier and weighing in at just 180 lbs. Duke fans can only hope he gives us two great years like the Deacons enjoyed with Paul. Justise Winslow – Winslow is an exciting player to watch. He’s multi-talented and is destined to be an NBA lottery pick – perhaps as soon as 2015. At 6’6”, 225 lb., he’s strong, fast, and can play above the rim. Like Jones, he’s not an elite perimeter shooter yet, but is skilled enough to be dangerous (3-8 on threes in exhibition play) and seems comfortable shooting from mid-range as well. Winslow was the team’s best player in the two exhibition games, scoring a team-high 36 points on 13-25 shooting, while snaring 14 boards, handing out 5 assists, and collecting 3 steals while turning the ball over just once. Winslow scored in a variety of ways – corner threes, transition, stick-backs, halfcourt dribble penetration, backdoor cuts. He looks almost disinterested or fatigued when play is stopped, but when the whistle blows again he’s super high energy – running the floor, showing active hands on D, hitting the glass at both ends, daring his man to try to stop him from getting to the rim off the dribble. He’ll be a fun player to watch and has All-American upside. As for player comparisons, think versatile wing men – Pippen, Drexler, Marion, Pierce (the more athletic, less perimeter—oriented Kansas version), maybe a smaller, more athletic Rodney Rogers given his strength and lefty stroke. It would not shock me to see Winslow lead this team in scoring or receive All-American accolades as a freshman. Grayson Allen – The 6’4”, 195 lb. freshman is less heralded than his three classmates, but still has plenty of talent. He can really get off the floor and has the sweetest-looking stroke on the team. Allen scored 25 points in 39 minutes during the two exhibition contests, nailing 5 of 9 attempts from deep. Allen seems likely to be primarily a catch-and-shoot, Dre Dawkins-style guy this year, rather than someone that’s going to take people off the dribble. He may not play more than 10-15 minutes a game this season, but has All-ACC potential down the road due to his range and athleticism. He also seems destined to be a Cameron crowd favorite.

Amile Jefferson – Amile looks much more comfortable playing alongside Okafor versus Jabari Parker. He goes from being an undersized “5” to an average-sized “4” at 6’8” and a wiry 215 lbs. Jefferson had 18 points and 13 boards in 39 preseason minutes, doing all of his damage right around the rim. I’d expect him to put up similar numbers to last season – 6-7 points and 6-7 boards in about 25 minutes a contest. Always a vocal player, all signs point to him taking on a greater leadership role with this young team. Amile really struggles at the free throw line (53% career) so hopefully he can improve that aspect of his game. Matt Jones – Jones seems locked in as the starting shooting guard and had a fine exhibition season, scoring 24 points in 38 minutes on 10-16 shooting. MJ knocked down 6-12 threes in the two contests, but I’d temper expectations on Jones as a consistent deep threat. The sophomore shot just 3-21 from behind the arc and 56% from the line last year and lacks rotation on his youth basketball-style push shot. He gelled well with the first unit in the two exhibition games. When he wasn’t knocking down corner triples, he was playing his usual hard-nosed D, running the floor in transition, and driving the baseline. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cook and Sulaimon get some starts over the course of the season, but they seem better equipped to provide offensive punch off the bench while Jones blends nicely with the freshman starters. Quinn Cook – The senior co-captain provides a lot of experience and scoring ability off the bench. He’s had to adjust his role more than anyone with the incoming class, and seems to be taking it in stride. With Tyus Jones in the mix, Cook will play off the ball more – a role he may be more naturally suited to. He and Sulaimon will provide offensive punch off the bench. Quinn scored 25 points in 47 preseason minutes, shooting 10-18 from the floor, including 4-9 from behind the arc. Rasheed Sulaimon – Sheed struggled a bit in the exhibition games, going just 2-10 from the field (1-8 on threes). Like Cook, he’ll be asked to play more off the ball when he’s mixed in with the starters. Sulaimon’s challenge will be not to try to do too much offensively and play a more complementary role – running the floor, moving without the ball, spotting up for threes. He’s had a tendency to get into trouble on drives to the basket – he can be turnover prone and doesn’t elevate well in traffic or off one foot so he fails to finish at the rate you’d hope he would around the rim. TJ, Okafor, and Winslow will draw enough defensive attention to get Sheed some great looks – he just needs to let the offense come to him rather than trying too hard to make something happen. Despite the tough shooting results in exhibition play, Sulaimon’s stroke looked better than a year ago, when his shot had a tendency to flatten out. Marshall Plumlee – It’s difficult not to root for Plumlee. He plays hard and clearly loves being a part of the program. He won’t have an opportunity for a ton of minutes this year, but it’s a luxury to have an experienced seven-footer off the bench in the event Okafor finds himself in foul trouble. It’s hard to take away much from his preseason performance given the opposition, but he dominated guys 4-5 inches shorter on the boards as he should. Semi Ojeleye – Always a freakish athlete at a chiseled 6’8”, 230 lbs, Semi has gone from extremely raw to just a little bit raw. T he game seems to have slowed down for him. He played well in the exhibition games, grabbing 10 boards in 25 minutes and even knocking down 8 of 10 free throws. Semi still has a tendency to fall in the love with the three-point shot, which is not really a strength. Hopefully he’ll continue to develop some interior post moves, as he’s tough to handle physically down low. He’s in line for limited minutes in his sophomore season, but could contribute against more physical opponents.



Follow me at my new Twitter handle @SwissKeegs for all things Duke Basketball throughout the season. Let’s go Duke!



by: Swiss Keegs