A few days ago I published my top 10 breakout candidates for 2019-20, which seemed to generate a lot of buzz. With that being the case, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the opposite end of the spectrum. Which players are most likely to take a step backwards next season?



If we’re going to look for indicators that a particular type of player is going to break out, we need to be looking for signs of regression the other way. Answering this question is never fun, but it’s an important aspect of predicting future performance. The best predictors tend to be shooting percentage-based; we know that players aren’t likely to continue shooting well above their career average. The same logic applies to goaltenders, although I didn’t include many of them on the list due to the volatility of save percentage from year to year (it’s much more difficult to predict).



When you see one of your favourite players listed here, please try to remember...