While some of the pro peloton is in Spain taking on the year’s final Grand Tour, a number of other riders will be in Hamburg to take on the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The first of several late summer circuit races on the WorldTour calendar, the event offers the sprinting heavyweights a rare opportunity to take a one-day victory at the highest level. It’s a lengthy race at 247.2 kilometers, and there are a few bumps along the way, but it almost invariably ends with a bunch gallop.

The Route

The race starts and finishes in Hamburg, with a route that will take the peloton in several loops through the city and its outskirts. The terrain is not particularly undulating throughout, but it does become a bit more challenging as the race wears on. After a long and mostly flat first half, the riders face four climbs of the Waseberg, the only real uphill test that must be overcome before the finish. It’s not even a full kilometer to the top, but after a long day, repeated trips up the steep climb will wear down some of the heavier riders. Generally, the Waseberg is the site of attacks, and though in recent editions they’ve all been closed down before the line (which comes roughly 15 km after the last ascent), the potential for a late game of cat and mouse does make for a hectic finale.

Weather has played a role in this race in the past, and it may again in the 2014 edition of the Vattenfall Cyclassics. There is a possibility of rain and a likelihood of high winds in the forecast, which could make this journey from start to finish a bit more stressful.

The Contenders

With a sprint as the most probable outcome, a fast finish will be the most important asset for anyone to be considered a main contender here. Endurance to survive a long day in the saddle and arrive at the finale fresh will help. The big-name sprinters, especially those who are comfortable sprinting after 240 kilometers, will be the top favorites. Last year’s winner John Degenkolb fit the bill perfectly, but he is in Spain for the Vuelta. However, there are plenty of other top quick men on this startlist (the field is probably even stronger than it was last year) to battle it out for the win.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff was 3rd in the 2013 edition of the race, and given his impeccable form right now, he will have an excellent opportunity to improve on that this year. The Milano-Sanremo winner is at his best after a lengthy race, he doesn’t mind a few bumps on the way to the line, and his top speed has reached new heights this season, making him among the most likely winners of the race. Bad weather will only increase his chances. The very quick Alexey Tsatevich makes for a powerful teammate.

Andre Greipel took 2nd place for the second consecutive time in 2013 and he’ll again be a strong contender in 2014. He is one of the fastest sprinters in the world, and he has made it through this parcours to the seemingly inevitable bunch finish in the past. However, he’s been a bit of a mystery over the past two months, at times showing off the blazing top speed for which he is well-known, and at other times widely missing the mark in races that seemed to suit him. He’ll need to put it all together to come away with the win here, and he hasn’t had a perfect run-up to race after withdrawing from the Eneco Tour due to illness. The possibility of rain won’t help either. Still, if he is feeling good and positions himself well, he’ll be hard to beat.

Marcel Kittel is the best pure sprinter on this startlist, with the Tour success to prove it. In a straight contest of speed, he is very rarely beaten, especially with the help of the Giant-Shimano leadout. However, as impressive as Kittel is as a sprinter, he doesn’t have the same versatility as teammate and 2013 winner John Degenkolb; he struggles with even minor challenges in a profile, and after 245 kilometers, he may be a different rider entirely from the speed machine that won the sprint down the Champs-Elysees. He’s certainly a contender, but he needs to prove that he can handle long days with a few bumps along the way before he is favored to win a race like this. The team may rely on Luka Mezgec as a capable alternative. Mezgec has taken his game to a new level in 2014, collecting win after win in the spring and showing good form lately in the Tour de Pologne and the Eneco Tour. He is a bit more capable than Kittel on the tougher parcours. Simon Geschke is another nice alternative; should this race be more selective than it usually is, he’s a dangerous rider in a reduced sprint.

OPQS brings a team loaded with firepower, with sprinting star Mark Cavendish leading the way. He’ll be eager to reassert himself in a bunch gallop after his early exit from the Tour de France, and he’s obviously among the very best sprinters here, with only Kittel and Greipel as potential rivals for pure speed. Still, while he’s a bit more likely to make it to the line than the aforementioned Kittel, there is a difference between surviving and arriving to the finale with fresh legs, as this year’s Milano-Sanremo (where several riders outmatched him even in a sprint) showed. Gianni Meersman is a terrific alternative if necessary, having shown brilliant form at the recent Tour de Wallonie, and Tour de l’Ain. The versatile Meersman should have no problem at all with the profile or the length of the race, and he may have more left in the tank than others by the end of the day. The same is true for Matteo Trentin, who will be yet another option for OPQS. Mark Renshaw, who showed in the Tour de France that he still has a lot of speed, deserves a mention too.

FDJ’s Arnaud Demare took the biggest win of his career here in 2012, and he has the skillset to fight for the overall victory again this year. Apart from a forgettable, illness-marred Tour de France campaign, he’s had a strong season so far, and he’ll be motivated to show that he’s back to his best in this race. 2nd in Gent-Wevelgmen in March, Demare is especially strong after a long day in the saddle, making him a top favorite for victory.

Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo was 3rd in the 2012 Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’s had an odd year, with quite a collection of nice sprinting performances but only two victories (in the Tour de San Luis and the recent Tour de Wallonie). Timing has been a bit of an issue on a number of occasions, and this race’s often chaotic finale won’t help with that, but the route and profile suit him perfectly, and Trek has a fast group of riders in attendance to strengthen his chances. Given the possibility that the likes of Kittel, Cavendish, and Greipel may not make it all the way to the line with the lead group, Nizzolo could contend for the win.

Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo has shown flashes of brilliance in 2014, but he’s missed out on several races that looked to be good opportunities as well. Crashes haven’t helped. If he can hang on here, he’s extremely fast and should be in the mix for the victory. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has won some smaller races this season and will hope to put his strong finish on display on a bigger stage in Hamburg. Sky’s Ben Swift would probably prefer a few more hills on the profile, but he’s a good sprinter in any scenario, and the length of the race alone could give him an advantage (like it did in Milano-Sanremo this year, where he was 3rd); much the same could be said for his teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen, who, though he has had a year to forget, did win this very race back in 2011. NetApp-Endura’s Sam Bennett is another very quick rider who becomes more dangerous when the route to the finish line has a few challenges along the way. Movistar’s JJ Lobato, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar (winner of both the 2009 and 2010 edition), Orica-GreenEdge’s Matt Goss, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio are others who could contend in a sprint.

Despite a historical precedent of bunch finishes deciding this race, a few teams have brought some talented riders, several of them familiar classics specialists, who will try to make things interesting by applying pressure as the long day nears its finish. BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, OGE’s Simon Gerrans, Michael Albasini, and Jens Keukeleire, Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, and Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke and Lars Boom look to be the likeliest protagonists for a late move or success in a sprint from a small group.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff

Podium: Arnaud Demare, Giacomo Nizzolo

Other Top Contenders: Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Gianni Meersman, Luka Mezgec, Sacha Modolo, Ben Swift

-Dane Cash

Photo by youkeys.