Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-6) (Over/Under 52)

September 22, 1:00pm ET – Arrowhead Stadium [CBS]

The Patriots remain the gatekeepers of the AFC until Tom Brady hangs them up, but it feels like we are getting a sneak peek of the future when Baltimore heads to Kansas City this weekend. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes appear ready to pick up where that Brady-Manning rivalry left off, with both signal callers on absolute fire through two weeks. Jackson enters as the top rated passer in the league (not bad for a running back), and Mahomes is third, with both piloting Top 5 offenses.

These teams have met just five times since 2011, so this is a relatively fresh match-up, but they did square off in December last season with Kansas City squeezing out a 27-24 overtime win. Baltimore grabbed the win with the points as six-point underdogs, and that is the same point spread for this game. The Ravens gave up 377 passing yards to Mahomes, but limited him to just two passing scores, one of which came with just 53 seconds left that tied the game. Notably, Tyreek Hill racked up 139 receiving yards in that game, but he will miss Sunday with a broken collarbone. Kansas City proved they may have the playmakers to replace Hill in the short-term, but getting it done against Baltimore is going to be harder than it was last week against Oakland.

Baltimore Capsule

Lamar Jackson hadn’t sold everyone on his ability to be a competent thrower ahead of this season, but the critics are getting quieter with Jackson hitting on 72% of his throws for 596 yards and seven scores through two weeks. His ability to run is not in question, and he might be licking his chops when he sees that Kansas City is allowing six yards per carry through two games. Mark Ingram is averaging 5.7 yards per carry so far with two touchdowns, and he should be available Sunday as he has moved to probable after being tagged as questionable earlier in the week. Marquise Brown is averaging an eye-popping 19.4 yards per catch and leads the team in receiving yards. Tight end Mark Andrews has not disappointed those fantasy folks that predicted he would break out. He has a 16-220-2 line through two weeks, and works well with Jackson’s scramble-style throwing. The Ravens do not have playmakers in volume, but six different pass catchers have a touchdown, so offensive scheme is doing a great job of utilizing guys at the right times.

The Baltimore D looks like many of the top-notch units of years past, as they have allowed just 1.7 yards per carry, and held opposing QBs to a passer rating of 70. The big plays have been there with six sacks and two picks, but the consistency has been more impressive with opponents being held to just 23% conversions on third down.

Kansas City Capsule

Anyone predicting significant regression for Mahomes has to be shaking their head at this point, as he has thrown for 821 yards and seven touchdowns, while hitting on 71% of his attempts. Mahomes is probably going to have to do the heavy lifting again as both Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy are banged up ahead of this game, with Williams the more likely to sit. Neither has been very good on the ground with the Chiefs at 26th in rushing, but both are live in the passing game, and all targets are needed with Hill already out. Demarcus Robinson (7-172-2) and Mecole Hardman (4-61-1) have provided the deep threat, and don’t forget Travis Kelce somehow averaging 19.5 yards per catch as a tight end. Sammy Watkins (15-247-3) rounds out a truly capable receiving crew, but the Chiefs will eventually need to look like they can run to keep defenses honest.

The KC defense is Top 10 in points allowed at 18 per game, but big leads have helped turn their opponents one-dimensional. Even while knowing the pass was coming, the Chiefs are allowing a 45% third down conversion rate and a 92 passer rating against. Couple that with a leaky run defense and KC may be in trouble if anyone can keep the game close.