Unblocked Shots

This first chart looks at unblocked shot share in blue (also known as Fenwick % or FF%) and the narrower shots on goal share (SOG%) in green. Note that I am looking at all shots, not just even-strength.

2. Toronto’s 1st period Fenwick % is breakeven at 50% while its shots on goal share is much lower — 48.6%. Both of these are noticeably lower than the 2nd and 3rd periods.

The noticeable drop-off from SOG% to FF% in the first period has a simpler explanation: a greater number of missed shots than in the other periods. Makes you wonder how serious the game warm-ups are (they’re not).

Shot Volumes by Period: Fenwick and SOG Shares

Now my curiosity is going off the charts, literally. Let’s look at unblocked shot volumes for and against in two minute segments. I think you know where I’m heading.

The first chart shows Toronto unblocked shot numbers by segment. My eyes are drawn to the slow start, just over 90 shots which then grows over the first 8 minutes to about 120 before collapsing back . Then there’s a second spurt that dies down to the lowest shot rates for a typical Leafy game. I doubt they are out-of-shape so it must be opponent will > Leafs interest level.

The nerd in me also notices how much variation there is in the first versus the other periods which are relatively stable across the full twenty minutes.

Toronto’s unblocked Shots in two minute segments, periods are coloured

Maybe this chart is typical of first periods. If so, the opponents should have the same pattern in their shots against the Leafs. But what I see instead are significantly higher shot rates in the first and last two minute segments of the first period.

Looking at volumes is more reliable than looking at the rarer goal events within a period and the pattern tells me that…

3. The Leafs start the game very slowly in the first minutes and allow opponents to drive the play then they end the first period the same way.

Unblocked Shots Against Toronto

So now we know their 50% unblocked shot share is a little bit of a disguise — under the hood it is propped up by more missed shots and the picture is not pretty at the start and end of the first.