You Don’t Want Rick Nash

From reading the coverage of the Rick Nash situation, one would think the Columbus forward was a game breaking talent who could single handedly lead a team to playoff success (despite this having been directly proved untrue in 2009). One would also come away with the impression that all it would take to acquire him would be picks, prospects and players. Neither of these things are true.

Elite vs. “Elite”

First, Nash isn’t actually a super star caliber player, or at least he hasn’t been in a long time. He’s only cracked 70 points once, and in 9 seasons has broken the 40 goal mark twice.

Now that’s two times more than most players, but after this season it will have been three years since Nash has scored more than 33 goals in a season and four years since his 70+ point campaign. Over his career, he’s averaged 58.6 points a season.

That’s not bad, but try and think of an elite scorer who wouldn’t be disappointed with notching less than 60 points in a year. If Ovechkin, Stamkos, Crosby, Kovalchuk, etc, underachieved like that, they would be run out of town.

Mind on the Money

And that brings us to the heart of the matter. Nash is an elite talent for Columbus, but not an elite talent for the league at large. Unfortunately, his salary suggests otherwise. At 7.8 million dollars through 2018, Nash has the 5th largest cap hit in the NHL, and it won’t be going away any time soon.

The trade deadline brings out the most irrational in all of us, and I think this is why his absurd salary has been underplayed. There has been a tight focus among pundits around what players Columbus would accept for Nash, and not nearly enough focus on what teams would ever be able to stomach his massive paycheck.

Forget about giving up picks and prospects, would you even want to sign a 60 point (or even 70 point) player for 6 years at 7.8 million as a UFA? Probably not.

The counter argument is that Nash is a “sure thing”, and that you always hope your prospects will turn into Nash, so isn’t it worth the money to sign him? The answer is that I doubt most teams do want their prospects to turn into 7.8 million dollar anythings unless they’re putting up Crosby level numbers.

When you can put together a consistent 65 points a season by signing a couple of discounted role players, it’s hard to justify breaking the bank on one guy who may be past his prime. And yes, most prospects don’t turn into Nash, but the potential of landing a discount RFA like Jonathan Quick (1.8 million dollar cap hit) or pre-arbitration Zach Parise (3.125 million cap hit) is worth so much that even a small chance at such a jackpot is worth more than whatever “certainty” Nash is currently offering.

The Columbus Problem

Finally, Nash is worth far more to Columbus than he’s worth to any other team. There, he’s the face of the franchise, a role he can play nowhere else in the NHL (not even in Edmonton anymore with Hall, Eberle and RNH coming into their own). As I’ve argued, picks and potential are worth quite a lot, but you do need to give fans a reason to come to the arena at al. The Jackets are one power forward away from having exactly no one they can draw attendance with. Are we really going to see Jeff Carter or Vinny Prospal’s face adorning Nationwide Arena if #61 packs his bags? Is James Wisniewski going to be a franchise player?

Columbus is a losing team in a tiny market that doesn’t really like hockey that much. It may be the only place in the country where having a big name, overpaid star in the short term is worth more than the potential for better, more reasonably paid players in the long term because there is a serious question as to whether, without someone for the Jackets to hang their hat on, there will be a future for hockey in Ohio.

The situation in Columbus might seem irrelevant to the trade talks, but it ties directly into what management is going to want in exchange for their singular asset. According to the NY Post, the Jackets are asking the Rangers for Derek Stepan or Ryan McDonogh (in addition to picks and top prospects) in exchange for Nash. Stepan is arguably the Ranger’s #1 center (sad trombone for Brad Richards) and Ryan McDonagh is their first pairing defensemen and best young player.