A ceasefire seldom gets a good press. If it succeeds in ending violence or defusing a crisis, the media swiftly becomes bored and loses interest. But if the fighting goes on, then those who have called the ceasefire are condemned as heartless hypocrites who either never intended to bring the killing to an end or are culpably failing to do so.

Pundits are predictably sceptical about the agreement reached by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi on Monday to head off an imminent offensive by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces directed against rebels in Idlib province. This is the last enclave of the armed opposition in western Syria which has lost its strongholds in Aleppo, Damascus and Daraa over the past two years.

Doubts about the accord are understandable because, if it is implemented, the anti-Assad groups in Idlib will be defanged militarily. They will see a demilitarised zone policed by Russia and Turkey eat into their territory, “radical terrorist groups” removed, and heavy weapons ranging from tanks to mortars withdrawn. The rebels will lose their control of the two main highways crossing Idlib and linking the government held cities of Aleppo, Latakia and Hama.

There is a striking note of imperial self-confidence about the document in which all sides in the Syrian civil war are instructed to come to heel. This may not happen quite as intended because it is difficult to see why fighters of al-Qaeda-type groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham should voluntarily give up such military leverage as they still possess. The Syrian government has said that it will comply with the agreement but may calculate that, in the not so long term, it will be able to slice up Idlib bit by bit as it did with other rebel enclaves.

Missile defence system in Latakia, Syria fires into the sky

What is most interesting about the agreement is less its details than what it tells us about the balance of forces in Syria, the region and even the world as a whole. Fragile it may be, but then that is true of all treaties which general Charles de Gaulle famously compared to “young girls and roses – they last as long as they last”. Implementation of the Putin-Erdogan agreement may be ragged and its benefits temporary, but it will serve a purpose if a few less Syrians in Idlib are blown apart.

The Syrian civil war long ago ceased to be a struggle fought out by local participants. Syria has become an arena where foreign states confront each other, fight proxy wars and put their strength and influence to the test.The most important international outcome of war so far is that it has enabled Russia to re-establish itself as a great power. Moscow helped Assad secure his rule after the popular uprising in 2011 and later ensured his ultimate victory by direct military intervention in 2015. A senior diplomat from an Arab country recalls that early on in the Syrian war, he asked a US general with a command in the region what was the difference between the crisis in Syria and the one that had just ended with the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. The general responded with a single word: “Russia.”

It is difficult to remember now, when Russia is being portrayed in the west as an aggressive predatory power threatening everybody, the extent which it was marginalised seven years ago when Nato was carrying out regime change in Libya.

Russia was in reality always stronger than it looked because it remained a nuclear superpower capable of destroying the world after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 just as it was before. It should be difficult to forget this gigantically important fact, but politicians and commentators continue to blithely recommend isolating Russia and pretend that it can be safely ignored.

The return of Russia as a great power was always inevitable but was accelerated by successful opportunism and crass errors by rival states. Assad in Syria was always stronger than he looked. Even at the nadir of his fortunes in July 2011, the British embassy in Damascus estimated that he had the backing of 30 to 40 per cent of the population according to The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East by Christopher Phillips, which should be essential reading for anybody interested in Syria. Expert opinion failed to dent the conviction among international statesmen that Assad was bound to go. When the French ambassador Eric Chevallier expressed similar doubts about the imminence of regime change he received a stern rebuke from officials in Paris who told him: “Your information does not interest us. Bashar al-Assad must fall and will fall.”

Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Show all 14 1 /14 Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Sara, 11, is a Syrian refugee living in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley in an informal tented settlement. She attends UNRWA-funded Jefna school where she is top of her class and regarded as the brightest child in the school by her teachers Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Sara helps her mother Fatima around the house watering the pot plants, washing the concrete ﬂoors and helping to prepare the meals in the kitchen Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Behind the family tent is an old disused quarry where the Bedouins’ sheep graze the hard thistle plants. Sara can see across the Bekaa Valley to the mountains, beyond which is Syria and the distant memories of the old life they had Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Sara is keen to leave the tent, which leaks water from the roof when it rains and in the freezing cold winter months the snow drifts in. She dreams of having a nicer home Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams She spends almost all her time in the tent when not at school: her brothers Ali and Deeb won’t let her play football with them Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Hadi, 2, is taught some basics of English by Sara to prepare him for enrolment into an UNRWA school when he is 6. Unlike the others, Hadi was the only one born into tent life. He cares for the stray dogs that visit the settlement and plays with the abundance of stones in the old quarry Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Deeb accompanies Sara to buy bread from a small shop run from a neighbours home. Sara’s family cannot aﬀord to buy luxuries like meat on the $260 per month cash vouchers they receive from UNRWA and therefore their meals only consists of rice, potatoes and salad Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Sara is a beneﬁciary of Educate A Child, a programme of the Education Above All Foundation. As well as core curriculum subjects, she is also receiving psychosocial support to assist her with any trauma she may have been exposed to while ﬂeeing their homes from the civil war in Syria Photos Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Sara and her family visit Beirut on our ﬁnal day in Lebanon. It was Sara’s ﬁrst time on an escalator and, after being cautious at ﬁrst, she soon found her feet and was leading her family around the city with conﬁdence Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams When she eventually leaves Lebanon to continue her studies and pursue her dream of becoming a doctor, she imagines the cities will be big and beautiful just like Beirut Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Ali and Sara have never seen the sea, let alone stood on its shores and played in the shallow water. Her brothers are now inviting their sister to come and play with them, which is very unlike things are back home in the tent where Sara’s place is indoors helping with chores Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Sara, Ali and Deeb chase the white water on Lebanon’s coastline. As the waves break on the sand, so too do the barriers between siblings. They laugh together and have forgotten about their struggle for now Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams At 11 years old, Sara could never have imagined becoming a refugee. Sitting on a swing in Beirut, she hopes for a better future built on a good education and psychosocial support made possible by EAA and UNRWA Paddy Dowling Syrian refugee in Lebanon: Education is the foundation of my dreams Sara has dreams of moving to Canada, Europe or the Gulf states where she can study in English and eventually become a doctor. She didn’t ask to be a refugee and refuses to give up her ﬁght for a better life. Sara wants to be able to contribute to a society by becoming a doctor to help others Paddy Dowling

Such wishful thinking and flight from reality continues to this day. Miscalculations by Washington, Paris and London have provided Putin with ideal political terrain on which to reassert the power of the Russian state. The agreement signed by Russia and Turkey last Monday deciding the future of Idlib province is a token of how far Russia has come out on top in Syria. Putin is able to sign a bilateral agreement with Turkey, the second largest military power in Nato, without any reference to the US or other Nato members.

The accord means that Turkey will increase its military stake in northern Syria, but it can only do so safely under license from Moscow. The priority for Turkey is to prevent the creation of a Kurdish statelet under US protection in Syria and for this it needs Russian cooperation. It was the withdrawal of the Russian air umbrella protecting the Kurdish enclave of Afrin earlier this year that enabled the Turkish army to invade and take it over.

As has happened with North Korea, President Trump’s instincts may be surer than vaunted expertise of the Washington foreign policy establishment and its foreign clones. They have not learned the most important lesson of the US-led intervention wars in Iraq and Syria which is that it is not in western interests to stir the pot in either country. Despite this, they argue for continued US military presence in northeast Syria on the grounds that this will weaken Assad and ensure that any victory he wins will be pyrrhic.

Everything that has happened since 2011 suggests the opposite: by trying to weaken Assad, western powers will force him to become more – not less – reliant on Moscow and Tehran. It ensures that more Syrians will die, be injured or become refugees and gives space for al-Qaeda clones to reemerge.