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Probable deeper reason: In the last two weeks, it became clear that there was no chance for Trump to win. At that point, a matter of time. https://t.co/U7PD22TIth — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 8, 2016

Today’s estimated Clinton win probability is 93%. The Meta-Margin is Clinton +3.3% and the red one-sigma band, indicating the likely range of electoral outcomes, is 290-348 EV. Betting markets are catching up, especially after yesterday’s newest wave of Trump stories, especially the groping story.

The insta-consensus among commentators is that somehow this event is a cause of Trump’s electoral doom. I think the logic is backwards – to me, the growing obviousness of his doom created an environment for this story to blow up. The genuinely new development is the impact for downticket – in both the Senate and the House.

In one common sentiment, catching Trump on tape bragging about groping women without consent is somehow a last straw that has caused supporters to desert him, starting off with GOP Reps. Jason Chaffetz (district Partisan Voting Index R+25%), Barbara Comstock (R+2%), and Martha Roby (R+17%), and Utah governors Gary Herbert (current) and Jon Huntsman (former). Here is Taniel’s running tally of GOP reactions. Some PEC readers think this is a black swan – an unexpected anomaly that moves everything.

However, the idea that the recording comes as an exogenous surprise does not make sense. Trump’s record of misogynistic comments is abundant, and his unfiltered comments are part of his core appeal. As a reality television star with thousands of hours of candid footage, it seems inevitable that such comments would come to light…though it’s taken a while.

What Republican opposition researchers were doing from June 2015 to March 2016 will forever remain a mystery. — Taniel (@Taniel) October 7, 2016

I would argue that this weekend’s public blowback is triggered by a growing realization of what will happen on November 8th. After the first debate, it became obvious that Trump was going to lose the general election. Clinton’s bounceback is small, but by modern (i.e. post-1996) standards it looks large. There isn’t enough time for opinion to shift back (for instance, within my random diffusion assumption), especially given the natural setpoint of the race (my Bayesian prior that assumes regression to the mean). In other words, people’s intuitions started telling them that time had run out for Trump.

Based on past elections, I estimate that people’s “animal spirits” about a campaign start to shift when the front-runner’s win probability gets close to 95% as defined using PEC’s methods. At that point, the marketplace of ideas starts looking for a reason to pile on to the loser. Enter the video/audio recording.

Elected officials have a nose for the stench of a candidate who is on the cusp of becoming a loser. All along, Republican officials have been skittish about Trump, who executed a hostile takeover of their party. Now they have an excuse to jump ship.

I think that prognosticators will soon follow suit. From a probabilities standpoint, the other aggregators have been lagging indicators of this year’s campaign. No doubt we will see them start to explain how this was the triggering event that settled matters.

*anything happens*

Nate Silver: Ah, just as I predicted https://t.co/rPdIyf6E1Y — Pixelated Boat (@pixelatedboat) October 6, 2016

Each of these outcomes now about equally likely: —Clinton landslide (8+ point win) —Obamaish win (4-7 points) —Narrow Clinton win —Trump win — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 5, 2016



Well, that certainly covers the possibilities. It’s consistent with a 75% probability…but it’s a bit broad. More on this topic another day.

In the next example of water finding its own level, let us now consider the Senate. As I have pointed out, Senate candidates of the Presidential winner’s party typically gain 3-4 percentage points between Labor Day and Election Day. So far we’ve only seen a small part of that. If those numbers continue to fulfill their destiny, Democrats would get to 52 or 53 seats. The races to watch most closely are Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana. I am especially interested in two states with scarce polling: Indiana, where Evan Bayh (D) may have weakened a bit, and Missouri, where Jason Kander (D) has mounted a savvy campaign against Senator Roy Blunt (R). These races are linked at left via ActBlue (Republicans, see the NRSC link).

Until now I thought the House was likely to remain Republican. But the fact that swing district Congresswoman Barbara Comstock has fled for the exit is an early indicator. If Trump is enough of an anchor dragging his party down, Democrats have an outside chance. However, at a minimum they need to win the national popular vote by 6-8%. Keep an eye on the generic Congressional ballot preference, which has been changing in tandem with the Presidential Meta-Margin.