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The poll asked respondents – 1,055 randomly selected B.C. residents of voting age – how they will vote. Its margin of error rests at plus or minus 3%, 19 times out of 20.

The poll’s results bring into question earlier predictions of a landslide NDP victory. An Angus Reid poll taken last month showed the NDP with a 14-point lead.

According to Forum president Loren Bozinoff, the trend over the last month in various polls shows the NDP gradually losing their foothold, shedding on average a point a week.

“Any continuous difference can affect NDP’s chances. They have to stop this trend from continuing,” said Mr. Bozinoff.

According to Forum’s rough estimates, the vote breakdown could give the NDP a one-seat majority in the 85-seat legislature, although it can be difficult to estimate seat counts based on province-wide polls.

Among the respondents who tuned into Monday’s party leaders’ debate, 33% thought NDP candidate Adrian Dix won and 30% thought Premier Christy Clark emerged the winner.

Although the numbers show no clear debate winner, the ambiguity may have given the Liberals a boost, according to Mr. Bozinoff.

“If the NDP had a knockout they could have maintained their lead but they didn’t and that ‘s why they’ve fallen back,” he said, adding that the NDP may have peaked a little too early this election period.

It is common, he said, for voters to return to the ruling party as voting day draws near.

“They had a lead for two years … in these situations with the time between the election, people are parking their votes with one party. With the election so close, it’s only now that people are starting to pay attention. It’s not unusual to get some movement,” said Mr. Bozinoff.