Predictions are nice because if they’re right, you look a genius. If they’re wrong, well, it was just a ‘prediction’. Keeping that in mind, these are my 2016 Iowa Caucus and eventual party nominee predictions (or wild guesses depending on how it actually turns out).

Iowa Caucus Republican Winner: Ted Cruz

Here’s why: Cruz will continue to rise in popularity just in time for the Iowa Caucus. The last three Republican winners in Iowa were Rick Santorum (2012), Mike Huckabee (2008) and George Bush (2000/04). All of them being very Christian/faith candidates. Trump is not that.

Eventual Republican Nominee: Marco Rubio

Here’s why: He’s the least crazy. Just kidding. It won’t be Trump (more on that later), Cruz (won’t garner the young vote), Bush, Carson, or any of the others, as they will slowly fade for one reason or another.

So why not Trump? He’s been leading in the polls for months and has made sure we all know he has a such a big, such a huge, great lead. Well, for the last three elections, the highest national-polling candidates in December before the election, have all failed to receive their party’s nomination. Howard Dean (Dec ‘03), Rudy Giuliani (Dec ‘07), Hillary Clinton(Dec ‘07), and Newt Gingrich (Dec ‘11), were all leading national polls in December and then flopped a few months later.