The SHL regular season is over, and 21-year-old Maple Leafs prospect Andreas Johnson finished 6th in the league for total points and 8th for total goals. Among under-24 players, he finished with the most goals, assists, points, and points per game (excluding players with only 1 game played). That's good! Johnson is expected to make the move to North America next season, and his numbers in Sweden certainly seem to suggest that he's ready for a new challenge.

It's pretty much a given that the Leafs got a hell of a steal when they selected Johnson in the 7th round with the 202nd overall pick in 2013. But what should we reasonably expect of young Andreas? Is he a future All-Star? A future 20-goal scorer? A future AHL All-Star? Only time will tell for sure, but let's see if we can't find some comparable players who will give us a better idea of what to expect.

And that can only mean one thing: It's time to look at a whole lotta tables.

A Brief Explanation of My Method and Sources Before We Look At a Whole Lotta Tables

Most of this article will be looking at Johnson's point production throughout his career and trying to find players with similar production. The data I'll be using covers 10 seasons, going from 2005-06 (the first season after the NHL's lockout season) to 2014-15 (last season). The historical data is all from eliteprospects.com. Later on I'll take a slightly more in-depth look at some of Johnson's stats and the stats of a comparable player, using the stats and game logs on SHL.se and stats.swehockey.se.

Focusing on point production is obviously going to give us an incomplete picture, but there aren't a lot of stats available for the SHL, and I haven't had the chance to watch any of his games (and my opinion of him based on watching his games wouldn't be worth much anyway). To get a better idea of Johnson as a player, I recommend starting with Scott Wheeler's article here and Johnson's Top 25 Under 25 write-up (also written by Mr. Wheeler) here.

Where scouting reports can be a bit problematic in my experience is that they tend to focus on what a player does well without much in the way of comparisons to other players, so I find I often come away from them with an overly positive idea of the player. Ideally, comparing Johnson's scoring numbers to other players will help us to temper our expectations a bit.

Also, apparently there is some disagreement about how the numbering for "Draft+/-" should work. For this article I'll refer to the season immediately preceding the player's draft as their draft season, or D+0. The season before that is draft-1 (D-1), and the season immediately following that is draft+1 (D+1). Johnson was first eligible for the draft in 2013, so the 2012-13 season is his D+0.

The Adventures of L'il Andreas: The Superelit League Chronicles

Johnson started playing in Sweden's Superelit league in his D-2 season, so let's start there. Playing in Superelit in the D-2 season is apparently pretty uncommon; only 17 D-2 forwards have played 15 or more Superelit games in the past 10 seasons. Here's how Johnson fits in, sorted by points per game:

Name Pos Season GP G A P P/GP Nick Sörensen RW 2010 30 18 11 29 0.967 Gabriel Landeskog LW 2008 31 7 14 21 0.677 Daniel Mannberg RW/LW 2008 33 7 13 20 0.606 Dmytro Timashov LW/RW 2012 38 9 13 22 0.579 Gustaf Franzén C 2012 26 6 9 15 0.577 Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson C 2012 31 9 7 16 0.516 Andreas Johnson LW 2010 30 9 5 14 0.467 Mikkel Bødker LW/RW 2005 37 9 8 17 0.459 Oscar Nord C/RW 2012 18 2 5 7 0.389 Robert Johansson LW 2006 29 7 4 11 0.379 Rasmus Asplund C/LW 2013 38 7 7 14 0.368 Lias Andersson C/LW 2014 25 6 3 9 0.36 Carl Grundström LW 2013 31 6 4 10 0.323 Magnus Pääjärvi LW/RW 2006 20 4 2 6 0.3 Emil Lundberg LW/RW 2009 18 2 2 4 0.222 Erik Andersson LW 2011 38 5 3 8 0.211 Simon Nilsson Cederborg LW 2005 22 2 1 3 0.136

Johnson looks OK here, coming well behind the clear top dogs like Sörensen and Landeskog, but ahead of former top-10 draft picks Mikkel Bødker and Magnus Pääjärvi. Johnson is advertised as a goalscorer, so let's look at the top-10 players for goals per game from that list:

Name Pos Season GP G A P G/GP Nick Sörensen RW 2010 30 18 11 29 0.6 Andreas Johnson LW 2010 30 9 5 14 0.3 Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson C 2012 31 9 7 16 0.29 Mikkel Bødker LW/RW 2005 37 9 8 17 0.243 Robert Johansson LW 2006 29 7 4 11 0.241 Lias Andersson C/LW 2014 25 6 3 9 0.24 Dmytro Timashov LW/RW 2012 38 9 13 22 0.237 Gustaf Franzén C 2012 26 6 9 15 0.231 Gabriel Landeskog LW 2008 31 7 14 21 0.226 Daniel Mannberg RW/LW 2008 33 7 13 20 0.212

He's still well behind Sörensen, but Johnson beats out all the other D-2 forwards from the past 10 years. Not bad, Andreas!

Moving on to his draft-1 season, Johnson has a lot more competition. Many (most?) top prospects in Sweden spend their D-1 year in Superelit, so it's not surprising that his standing drops. He places 38th for P/GP and 19th for G/GP. As much as we all love data tables, I'm not going to include tables with 40 rows, so here are the players who placed in the 30th-50th range for P/GP:

Name Pos Season GP G A P P/GP Kevin Fiala LW/RW 2012 33 9 19 28 0.848 Johan Sundström C 2009 37 13 17 30 0.811 David Pastrnak RW 2012 36 12 17 29 0.806 Filip Ahl LW/RW 2013 24 10 9 19 0.792 Linus Lindström C 2014 23 11 7 18 0.783 Emil Lundberg LW/RW 2010 40 18 13 31 0.775 Fredric Andersson C 2005 39 21 9 30 0.769 Tim Söderlund C/LW 2014 30 8 15 23 0.767 Andreas Johnson LW 2011 42 19 13 32 0.762 Mattias Tedenby LW/RW 2006 27 10 10 20 0.741 Daniel Despotovic RW 2006 38 11 17 28 0.737 Pontus Åberg LW/RW 2010 41 13 17 30 0.732 Jesper Frödén RW/LW 2011 44 15 17 32 0.727 Alexander Lagerström RW/LW 2007 32 8 15 23 0.719 Kim Karlsson C/LW 2006 31 8 14 22 0.71 Robin Kovacs LW/RW 2013 40 15 13 28 0.7 Jesper Wiberg LW 2014 43 18 11 29 0.674 Jakob Silfverberg RW/LW 2007 30 8 12 20 0.667 Robin Söderqvist C/RW 2011 48 11 21 32 0.667 Christopher Mastomäki C 2013 44 18 11 29 0.659 Nicklas Lasu C 2006 39 11 14 25 0.641

Johnson is in pretty good company here, although his scoring pace is less than half that of the #1 player (William Nylander, with 1.593 P/GP). Now let's see the 10th-25th best goalscoring rates:

Name Pos Season GP G A P G/GP William Nylander C/W 2012 27 15 28 43 0.556 Mario Kempe RW/LW 2005 36 20 12 32 0.556 Fredrik Forsberg RW 2013 42 23 25 48 0.548 Fredric Andersson C 2005 39 21 9 30 0.538 William Wallén RW/LW 2007 35 18 20 38 0.514 Mikkel Bødker LW/RW 2006 39 19 30 49 0.487 Linus Lindström C 2014 23 11 7 18 0.478 Sebastian Dyk RW 2009 38 18 21 39 0.474 Victor Öhman LW 2008 30 14 23 37 0.467 Andreas Johnson LW 2011 42 19 13 32 0.452 Emil Lundberg LW/RW 2010 40 18 13 31 0.45 Jesper Bratt LW/RW 2014 39 17 23 40 0.436 Lucas Sandström LW/RW 2006 35 15 17 32 0.429 Rasmus Asplund C/LW 2014 19 8 17 25 0.421 Jesper Wiberg LW 2014 43 18 11 29 0.419 Filip Ahl LW/RW 2013 24 10 9 19 0.417

Again, pretty good company. So Johnson's D-1 production was not in the same tier as the elite talents like Nylander and Filip Forsberg, but he was clearly a pretty good prospect at that point in his career. So why did he end up falling to the 7th round of the NHL draft? Let's take a look at his draft year production in Superelit, starting with the top 20 players for P/GP:

Name Pos Season GP G A P P/GP Calle Järnkrok C 2009 19 11 20 31 1.632 Anton Rödin RW 2008 37 29 26 55 1.486 William Karlsson C/LW 2010 38 20 34 54 1.421 Lars Eller C/LW 2006 39 18 37 55 1.41 Daniel Despotovic RW 2007 42 19 40 59 1.405 Jesper Fast RW/LW 2009 37 23 26 49 1.324 Simon Hjalmarsson LW 2006 41 31 23 54 1.317 Nicklas Lasu C 2007 41 19 34 53 1.293 Victor Öhman LW 2009 21 17 10 27 1.286 Andreas Johnson LW 2012 42 23 31 54 1.286 Ludvig Rensfeldt LW/RW 2009 39 21 29 50 1.282 Joel Eriksson Ek C/LW 2014 25 21 11 32 1.28 Oscar Johansson LW 2005 36 27 19 46 1.278 Johan Sundström C 2010 15 10 9 19 1.267 Jakob Silfverberg RW/LW 2008 30 14 24 38 1.267 John Dahlström LW/RW 2014 28 20 15 35 1.25 Filip Ahl LW/RW 2014 34 20 22 42 1.235 Oscar Lindberg C 2009 30 14 23 37 1.233 Fredric Andersson C 2006 38 24 22 46 1.211 Gustav Björklund C/W 2010 34 20 21 41 1.206

Johnson didn't quite crack the top-20 for G/GP, so let's look at the players who finished 15th-35th:

Name Pos Season GP G A P G/GP Jakub Vrána LW/RW 2013 24 14 11 25 0.583 Calle Järnkrok C 2009 19 11 20 31 0.579 Joakim Högberg RW/LW 2008 40 23 9 32 0.575 Pathrik Vesterholm C 2009 39 22 24 46 0.564 Pontus Netterberg LW/RW 2009 41 23 24 47 0.561 Mattias Tedenby LW/RW 2007 25 14 16 30 0.56 Jens Lööke RW/LW 2014 18 10 8 18 0.556 Andreas Johnson LW 2012 42 23 31 54 0.548 August Gunnarsson RW/LW 2013 39 21 19 40 0.538 Ludvig Rensfeldt LW/RW 2009 39 21 29 50 0.538 Fredrik Forsberg RW 2014 36 19 17 36 0.528 William Karlsson C/LW 2010 38 20 34 54 0.526 Henrik Thegel RW 2007 40 21 7 28 0.525 John Westin LW/RW 2009 31 16 10 26 0.516 Johan Skinnars RW 2006 33 17 10 27 0.515 Johannes Tornberg LW 2007 39 20 10 30 0.513 Pontus Johansson RW 2009 32 16 10 26 0.5 Gustav Nyquist RW/LW 2006 42 21 23 44 0.5 Carl Hagelin LW 2005 41 20 20 40 0.488 Joakim Andersson C/LW 2006 41 20 26 46 0.488 Tomas Larsson W/C 2005 37 18 11 29 0.486

Johnson showed some solid improvement year-over-year in both P/GP and G/GP, so his eventual draft position may seem a bit strange. The important thing here is that Johnson spent the bulk of his draft season in Superelit. Most of the top Swedish prospects spend their draft season in the SHL or Allsvenskan, and some other prospects like Dmytro Timashov leave for North America (presumably because their raw power could not be contained by a single continent). Johnson didn't completely dominate Superelit, and only managed 1 goal in 7 SHL games, which was probably enough to put off a lot of NHL teams. Add in the fact that he is only 5'10" tall and it's less surprising that he was passed over 201 times before being selected at the NHL entry draft.

Sucks To Your Assmar: The Post-Draft Years

Being drafted by Toronto was probably the high point of Johnson's summer in 2013, but there was another big development: Johnson was diagnosed with asthma! Apparently Johnson had been playing through an untreated respiratory condition, which makes his Superelit career look a bit more impressive.

With asthma inhaler in hand (figuratively; I don't think he ever brought it out on the ice with him) Johnson headed to Frölunda in the SHL for his first full season in Sweden's top league. He recorded 15 goals and 9 assists in 44 games, which doesn't sound incredible, but how does it compare to other D+1 players?

Name Pos Season GP G A P P/GP William Nylander C/W 2014 21 8 12 20 0.952 Nicklas Bäckström C 2006 45 12 28 40 0.889 Mikael Johansson C/LW 2013 55 9 30 39 0.709 Kevin Fiala LW/RW 2014 20 5 9 14 0.7 Gustav Possler LW/RW 2013 22 8 7 15 0.682 Magnus Pääjärvi LW/RW 2009 49 12 17 29 0.592 Calle Järnkrok C 2010 49 11 16 27 0.551 Andreas Johnson LW 2013 44 15 9 24 0.545 Jakub Vrána LW/RW 2014 44 12 12 24 0.545 Mika Zibanejad C 2011 26 5 8 13 0.5 Marcus Johansson LW/C 2009 42 10 10 20 0.476 Jacob Josefson C 2009 43 8 12 20 0.465 Axel Holmström C 2014 44 10 10 20 0.455 Jesper Fast RW/LW 2010 36 7 9 16 0.444 Anze Kopitar C 2005 47 8 12 20 0.426 Alexander Wennberg C/W 2013 50 16 5 21 0.42 Oskar Lindblom LW/RW 2014 37 8 7 15 0.405 Erik Andersson C/LW 2005 41 6 10 16 0.39 Oscar Lindberg C 2010 41 5 9 14 0.341 Adrian Kempe LW/RW 2014 50 5 12 17 0.34 Jakob Silfverberg RW/LW 2009 48 8 8 16 0.333

Pretty darn well! Johnson's P/GP pace was the 8th-best of all D+1 forwards in the SHL since 2005. Now let's see how his goalscoring stacked up:

Name Pos Season GP G A P G/GP William Nylander C/W 2014 21 8 12 20 0.381 Gustav Possler LW/RW 2013 22 8 7 15 0.364 Andreas Johnson LW 2013 44 15 9 24 0.341 Alexander Wennberg C/W 2013 50 16 5 21 0.32 Jakub Vrána LW/RW 2014 44 12 12 24 0.273 Nicklas Bäckström C 2006 45 12 28 40 0.267 Kevin Fiala LW/RW 2014 20 5 9 14 0.25 Magnus Pääjärvi LW/RW 2009 49 12 17 29 0.245 Marcus Johansson LW/C 2009 42 10 10 20 0.238 Axel Holmström C 2014 44 10 10 20 0.227 Calle Järnkrok C 2010 49 11 16 27 0.224 Oskar Lindblom LW/RW 2014 37 8 7 15 0.216 Andreas Thuresson LW/RW 2006 48 10 5 15 0.208 Jesper Fast RW/LW 2010 36 7 9 16 0.194 Mika Zibanejad C 2011 26 5 8 13 0.192 Jacob Josefson C 2009 43 8 12 20 0.186 Sebastian Collberg RW/LW 2012 35 6 3 9 0.171 Anze Kopitar C 2005 47 8 12 20 0.17 Jakob Silfverberg RW/LW 2009 48 8 8 16 0.167 Mikael Johansson C/LW 2013 55 9 30 39 0.164

Johnson looks even better when we sort by goals per game, coming in with the 3rd-best goalscoring rate for D+1 players since 2005, and with twice as many games played as the players ahead of him.

Despite his strong play, Johnson remained in Sweden for the 2014-15 season, sadly depriving him of the chance to be mentored by David Clarkson. In his second SHL season he improved his goal and assist production, but not quite as much as some other players did in their D+2 years. Here's how Johnson's D+2 point production stacks up:

Name Pos Season GP G A P P/GP Marcus Krüger C 2009 38 11 20 31 0.816 Calle Järnkrok C 2011 50 16 23 39 0.78 Jesper Fast RW/LW 2011 21 5 11 16 0.762 Johan Larsson C/W 2011 49 12 24 36 0.735 Patric Hörnqvist RW 2006 49 23 11 34 0.694 Jakob Silfverberg RW/LW 2010 53 18 16 34 0.642 Andreas Johnson LW 2014 55 22 13 35 0.636 Lars Eller C/LW 2008 48 12 17 29 0.604 Pontus Åberg LW/RW 2013 52 15 16 31 0.596 Mattias Janmark C/LW 2012 55 14 17 31 0.564 William Karlsson C/LW 2012 50 4 24 28 0.56 Anton Rödin RW 2010 53 7 19 26 0.491 Anton Lander C 2010 49 10 14 24 0.49 Johan Andersson C 2006 54 9 16 25 0.463 Victor Olofsson LW/RW 2014 39 10 8 18 0.462 Nicklas Jensen RW/LW 2012 50 17 6 23 0.46 Gustav Possler LW/RW 2014 47 9 12 21 0.447 Mattias Tedenby LW/RW 2009 44 12 7 19 0.432 Peter Cehlárik LW/RW 2014 46 6 13 19 0.413 André Petersson RW/LW 2009 37 10 5 15 0.405

Johnson had the 7th-best D+2 P/GP rate for a forward since 2005. Interestingly, the top P/GP rate from that time span belongs to defenceman David Rundblad, with 0.909 P/GP over 55 games.

Johnson fares even better when we just look at goalscoring:

Name Pos Season GP G A P G/GP Patric Hörnqvist RW 2006 49 23 11 34 0.469 Andreas Johnson LW 2014 55 22 13 35 0.4 Jakob Silfverberg RW/LW 2010 53 18 16 34 0.34 Nicklas Jensen RW/LW 2012 50 17 6 23 0.34 Calle Järnkrok C 2011 50 16 23 39 0.32 Marcus Krüger C 2009 38 11 20 31 0.289 Pontus Åberg LW/RW 2013 52 15 16 31 0.288 Mattias Tedenby LW/RW 2009 44 12 7 19 0.273 André Petersson RW/LW 2009 37 10 5 15 0.27 Victor Olofsson LW/RW 2014 39 10 8 18 0.256 Mattias Janmark C/LW 2012 55 14 17 31 0.255 Lars Eller C/LW 2008 48 12 17 29 0.25 Johan Larsson C/W 2011 49 12 24 36 0.245 Jesper Fast RW/LW 2011 21 5 11 16 0.238 Anton Lander C 2010 49 10 14 24 0.204 Gustav Possler LW/RW 2014 47 9 12 21 0.191 Max Görtz RW 2012 50 9 6 15 0.18 Adam Brodecki LW/RW 2014 47 8 10 18 0.17 Artturi Lehkonen LW/RW 2014 47 8 8 16 0.17 Johan Andersson C 2006 54 9 16 25 0.167

Johnson occupies a comfy middle ground between current NHLers Hörnqvist and Silfverberg. It's important to remember that top-tier players like Nylander and Nicklas Bäckström had left Sweden for North American pro hockey by the same point in their careers, so Johnson's competition isn't quite as tough as it was the year before. Still, I think it's fair to say that Johnson was scoring goals at a pretty impressive level for his age, as there haven't been many players who have scored at anywhere near that rate.

Even after that strong season, Leafs management was clearly in no rush to have Johnson make the move to North America, meaning he would remain in Sweden for his D+3 (which, if you've lost track, is the season that just ended). As hilarious as it would have been to add Johnson to this year's Marlies roster, it made sense to keep him in Frölunda for an extra year of development. How'd that extra year of development go?

Name Pos Season GP G A P P/GP Jakob Silfverberg RW/LW 2011 49 24 30 54 1.102 Carl Söderberg C/LW 2006 31 12 18 30 0.968 Andreas Johnson LW 2015 52 19 25 44 0.846 Viktor Arvidsson LW/RW 2013 50 16 24 40 0.8 Calle Järnkrok C 2012 53 13 29 42 0.792 Mikael Johansson C/LW 2015 51 12 28 40 0.784 Oscar Lindberg C 2012 55 17 25 42 0.764 Jesper Fast RW/LW 2012 47 18 17 35 0.745 Marcus Krüger C 2010 52 6 29 35 0.673 William Karlsson C/LW 2013 55 15 22 37 0.673 Artturi Lehkonen LW/RW 2015 49 16 17 33 0.673 Lucas Wallmark C 2015 48 8 24 32 0.667 Mattias Janmark C/LW 2013 45 18 12 30 0.667 Nick Sörensen RW 2015 37 10 13 23 0.622 Victor Olofsson LW/RW 2015 49 14 15 29 0.592 Linus Omark LW 2007 55 11 21 32 0.582 Patric Hörnqvist RW 2007 53 18 12 30 0.566 Dick Axelsson LW 2007 47 12 13 25 0.532 Andreas Engqvist C 2008 31 9 7 16 0.516 Dragan Umicevic RW 2005 43 6 16 22 0.512

Johnson's 0.846 P/GP is a solid improvement from the 0.636 P/GP pace he put up in the previous season, although it was not quite as impressive as Jakob Silfverberg nearly doubling his point production from 0.642 to 1.102 points per game. Also, if you're wondering where the hell Carl Söderberg and his near-point-per-game pace came from, his Malmö Redhawks team was relegated to the Allsvenskan league the previous season (where Söderberg scored 39 points in 39 games), then briefly made it back to the SHL for the 2006-07 season before being relegated again.

Astute readers have likely noticed that Johnson's 19 goals in 52 games is a slight drop from the 22 goals in 55 games he scored in the previous season (don't feel bad if you didn't notice that; after all, "astute reader" sounds an awful lot like "ass-toot reader," and nobody wants to be an ass-toot reader. Of course, you probably didn't notice that either). So how does his slightly-diminished goalscoring rate compare to other D+3 players?

Name Pos Season GP G A P G/GP Jakob Silfverberg RW/LW 2011 49 24 30 54 0.49 Mattias Janmark C/LW 2013 45 18 12 30 0.4 Carl Söderberg C/LW 2006 31 12 18 30 0.387 Jesper Fast RW/LW 2012 47 18 17 35 0.383 Andreas Johnson LW 2015 52 19 25 44 0.365 Patric Hörnqvist RW 2007 53 18 12 30 0.34 Artturi Lehkonen LW/RW 2015 49 16 17 33 0.327 Viktor Arvidsson LW/RW 2013 50 16 24 40 0.32 Oscar Lindberg C 2012 55 17 25 42 0.309 Andreas Engqvist C 2008 31 9 7 16 0.29 Victor Olofsson LW/RW 2015 49 14 15 29 0.286 William Karlsson C/LW 2013 55 15 22 37 0.273 Nick Sörensen RW 2015 37 10 13 23 0.27 André Petersson RW/LW 2010 31 8 4 12 0.258 Dick Axelsson LW 2007 47 12 13 25 0.255 Calle Järnkrok C 2012 53 13 29 42 0.245 Peter Cehlárik LW/RW 2015 46 11 9 20 0.239 Mikael Johansson C/LW 2015 51 12 28 40 0.235 Oskar Sundqvist C/W 2014 41 9 10 19 0.22 Johan Harju LW/C 2006 55 12 10 22 0.218

Johnson's goalscoring pace still puts him in pretty good company. Obviously it would be preferable to see his goalscoring pace improve year-over-year, but 2 more goals would have given him a pace of 0.404 G/GP, so the drop could easily be a matter of bad puck luck in a few games. Plus, Patric Hörnqvist's goalscoring pace dropped off more than Johnson's did, and he still turned out OK.

Hörnqvist is one of two players who stood out to me when I was looking over these comparables, the other being Jakob Silfverberg. Both have become NHL regulars, with Hörnqvist being a perpetual 20+ goal scorer, and Silvferberg hitting the 20-goal mark for the first time this season (which is all the more impressive given the Ducks' offensive woes to start the season). If Johnson compares to those guys, it certainly bodes well for his future NHL career.

I figure this comparison warrants a closer look, so let's do that. Unfortunately I can't find any useful data for Hörnqvist's D+1 season, so this will just be a more thorough comparison of Johnson's, Silfverberg's, and Hörnqvist's D+2 and D+3 seasons.

A More Thorough Comparison of Johnson's, Silfverberg's, and Hörnqvist's D+2 and D+3 Seasons

A quick note: My research for this section included going through the available game logs for Silfverberg's D+3 season. In doing so I noticed that I had him at 22 goals on the season rather than the 24 goals he has according to EliteProspects, SHL.se, NHL.com, and everywhere else. After double-checking my numbers I figured out that the SHL counts shootout winners (not every shootout goal; just the one that clinches the shootout win) as goals, and Silfverberg scored 2 shootout winners that season. That's obviously a silly system, so we will be proceeding using only the 22 real goals Silfverberg scored in his D+3. All of Johnson's goals were real goals, because Andreas Johnson does not go in for that shootout bullshit. I couldn't verify Hörnqvist's goals or the other players' D+2 goals, so keep in mind that their goal totals could be inflated a bit by shootout winners.

Also, I was hoping to be able to compare Goals For Percentage stats, but I can't find game logs for any season prior to 2011 so that won't be possible. For those wondering, Johnson's ES GF% this past season was 58.3%, with a -2.78 ES GF%Rel. A positive GF%Rel is always preferable, but when the team's overall GF% is over 60% a small negative difference isn't the end of the world.

OK, on to the data. First let's break down their scoring into goals, primary assists (1A), and secondary assists (2A) and compare primary points.

For D+2:



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson G/GP 0.469 0.34 0.4 1A/GP 0.163 0.17 0.109 2A/GP 0.061 0.132 0.127 PrP/GP 0.633 0.509 0.509 PrP% 91.20% 79.44% 80.03%

Hörnqvist's excellent D+2 season is even more impressive when we see that only 3 of his points were secondary assists. Silfverberg and Johnson both had primary points make up about 80% of their total points, which is also very good.

D+3:



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson G/GP 0.34 0.449 0.365 1A/GP 0.132 0.388 0.269 2A/GP 0.094 0.224 0.212 PrP/GP 0.472 0.837 0.635 PrP% 83.39% 78.89% 74.94%

All 3 players see a drop in their PrP%, but none of them drops by very much. We can at least see that all of these players were actively generating offence rather than just accumulating lucky secondary assists, and that it isn't totally crazy to compare Johnson to the other two.

I came into this article with the impression that Johnson is something of a powerplay specialist (possibly because most of the highlight clips I saw of him showed powerplay goals). To see if that's accurate, let's split the 3 players' scoring into even strength (ES) and powerplay (PP) points. Unfortunately SHL.se doesn't keep track of primary and secondary assists separately when looking only at even strength or power play situations, so we'll have to make do with total assists.

D+2:



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson G/GP 0.469 0.34 0.4 PrP/GP 0.633 0.509 0.509 P/GP 0.694 0.642 0.636 ES G/GP 0.224 0.208 0.291 ES P/GP 0.388 0.415 0.473 PP G/GP 0.245 0.132 0.109 PP P/GP 0.306 0.226 0.164 ES G% 47.76% 61.18% 72.75% ES P% 55.91% 64.64% 74.37%

In his D+2 season, Johnson scored 72.75% of his goals and 74.37% of his points at even strength, so the "power play specialist" label doesn't seem appropriate there.

D+3:



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson G/GP 0.34 0.449 0.365 PrP/GP 0.472 0.837 0.635 P/GP 0.566 1.061 0.846 ES G/GP 0.132 0.245 0.192 ES P/GP 0.321 0.531 0.385 PP G/GP 0.208 0.204 0.173 PP P/GP 0.245 0.531 0.462 ES G% 38.82% 54.57% 52.60% ES P% 56.71% 50.05% 45.51%

Johnson did a higher percentage of his scoring on the power play in his D+3 season (as did Silfverberg), but he still generated plenty of offence at even strength as well. Interestingly, both Johnson and Silfverberg got the bulk of their secondary assists on the power play. I went through both players' game logs to look at their power play scoring, and by my count Johnson got 9 secondary assists on the power play and Silfverberg got 8. Both players only had 11 secondary assists on the season, so their increased power play point production is likely due in part to some combination of luck and increased power play time.

So Johnson was really no more of a power play specialist than Hörnqvist or Silfverberg. In case you're worried that Johnson will only be able to score on the power play in the NHL, only 2 of Silfverberg's 20 goals in the NHL this season came on the power play. Johnson is a smaller player who may need the extra space more, but there's nothing in his SHL numbers to suggest that he won't be able to produce at even strength in the NHL.

Johnson's scoring rates look pretty comparable to Hörnqvist's and Silfverberg's so far, but if he got significantly more ice time than they did, his scoring would be a bit less impressive. So let's compare some ice time!



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson D+2 TOI/GP 00:16:01 00:18:02 00:16:01 D+2 ES TOI/GP 00:11:30 00:13:58 00:12:50 D+2 PP TOI/GP 00:04:09 00:02:45 00:03:07 D+3 TOI/GP 00:17:49 00:19:12 00:16:05 D+3 ES TOI/GP 00:12:57 00:14:08 00:12:35 D+3 PP TOI/GP 00:04:17 00:03:43 00:03:29

Johnson got less ice time than Silfverberg in both his D+2 and D+3 seasons, and less than Hörnqvist in his D+3. He's also the only one of them to not see a significant increase in his ice time from one season to the next. This could perhaps be cause for some concern, since it could be a sign that his coach didn't trust him with more minutes. It could also just be because Frölunda had a pretty stacked team this year, so Johnson may have simply had less opportunity to move up the lineup than Silfverberg and Hörnqvist did.

Now let's use the TOI data to calculate the players' per-60 scoring rates, which will even out differences caused by ice time.

D+2:



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson G/60 1.758 1.13 1.498 PrP/60 2.37 1.695 1.907 P/60 2.599 2.134 2.384 ES G/60 1.171 0.892 1.36 ES P/60 2.023 1.783 2.21 PP G/60 3.54 2.88 2.1 PP P/60 4.43 4.94 3.15

D+3:



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson G/60 1.144 1.403 1.363 PrP/60 1.589 2.615 2.367 P/60 1.906 3.316 3.157 ES G/60 0.612 1.04 0.917 ES P/60 1.486 2.253 1.834 PP G/60 2.91 3.29 2.98 PP P/60 3.44 8.57 7.95

The immediate takeaway here is that Johnson and Silfverberg both had pretty ridiculous power play production in their D+3 seasons. Remember that those numbers are inflated by all those secondary assists, though; their power play G/60 numbers are a bit more reasonable.

The more relevant takeaway is that Johnson compares very well to both Hörnqvist and Silfverberg when adjusting for TOI. His D+2 power play scoring is a bit low, but otherwise he does not look out of place at all.

There's one more thing I'd like to look at for this player comparison: shot rates. Scoring numbers are dependent on shooting percentage, which can be affected by luck, potentially causing it to fluctuate from one season to the next. A player's ability to get shots on goal tends to be more repeatable, and can therefore be a better indicator of future success in some cases.

First, let's look at shots per game:



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson D+2 SOG/GP 2.776 2.358 2.782 D+3 SOG/GP 3.283 3.143 2.808 D+2 ES SOG/GP 1.878 1.774 2.036 D+3 ES SOG/GP 2.226 2.245 2.096 D+2 PP SOG/GP 0.898 0.547 0.745 D+3 PP SOG/GP 1.019 0.816 0.673

Johnson's shooting rate stays roughly the same from his D+2 season to his D+3, while Hörnqvist and Silfverberg both show noticeable improvement. Remember that Johnson didn't see much of an increase in ice time while Hörnqvist and Silfverberg both did, though, so we should also take a look at shooting rates per 60 minutes:



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson D+2 SOG/60 10.397 7.847 10.421 D+3 SOG/60 11.056 9.821 10.474 D+2 ES SOG/60 9.796 7.619 9.521 D+3 ES SOG/60 10.315 9.53 9.995 D+2 PP SOG/60 12.983 11.938 14.351 D+3 PP SOG/60 14.272 13.178 11.594

Hörnqvist's SOG/60 rates don't see much more of an improvement than Johnson's do. Silfverberg's shooting rates have a much more significant increase, but remain lower than Hörnqvist's and Johnson's in almost every scenario.

It's pretty clear by now that the main reason for Hörnqvist's drop in production in his D+3 season is shooting percentage. Let's take a quick look at everyone's shooting percentages to see where luck may have had an impact:



Hörnqvist Silfverberg Johnson D+2 S% 16.91% 14.40% 14.38% D+3 S% 10.34% 14.29% 13.01% D+2 ES S% 11.96% 11.70% 14.29% D+3 ES S% 5.93% 10.91% 9.17% D+2 PP S% 27.27% 24.14% 14.63% D+3 PP S% 20.37% 25.00% 25.71%

Hörnqvist serves as a good example of how shooting percentage can have a deceptive effect on offensive production. His shooting percentage dropped by more than 6% in every situation, so although he improved his shot generation, his offensive numbers dropped off considerably. Two seasons later he scored 30 goals in the NHL, so clearly he didn't just forget how to score.

After Hörnqvist's big drop-off, the other most noticeable change in shooting percentage belongs to Andreas Johnson. His even strength percentage dropped by 5.12%, but it was balanced out by a huge 11.08% increase in power play shooting percentage, so his all-situations S% does not show much of a change.

Johnson's power play shooting in his D+2 season looks abnormally low, and is effectively the same as his shooting percentage at even strength that season. His D+3 PP S% is much closer to the other players', so it seems likely that his D+2 PP S% is something of an anomaly (and the fact that his D+1 PP% was 27.78% helps to confirm that).

His ES S% is a bit harder to gauge, as his D+2 number is quite high compared to the other players, and his D+3 number is pretty low. It's possible for a player to shoot at a consistently high percentage (see Steven Stamkos for an extreme example), so we can hope that Johnson's D+3 ES S% is the anomaly and that his D+2 ES S% accurately represents his abilities. His D+1 ES S% was 13.7%, so it's plausible that Johnson is simply better at turning his shots into goals than Hörnqvist and Silfverberg were at the same point in their careers.

TL;DR

Johnson's pre-draft career was fine but unexceptional, but after getting proper treatment for his asthma and moving to the SHL he became a much more exciting prospect. His D+1, D+2, and D+3 P/GP rates are all in the top-10 since 2005, and his G/GP rates are all in the top-5. He isn't in the top tier of prospects with William Nylander, but he compares well to quite a few players who have gone on to have successful NHL careers.

In particular, his offensive numbers in all 3 SHL seasons are in the same neighbourhood as Patric Hörnqvist's and Jakob Silfverberg's numbers from the same points in their careers. A closer look at those players' offensive production shows that the comparison isn't entirely unreasonable, so they may give us a rough idea of Johnson's upside. If his development goes well and his game translates to North American hockey (far from a certainty), he could be an excellent secondary scoring option. It's unlikely he'll ever put up a 40-goal season, but consistently scoring in the 25-goal range certainly seems to be in the realm of possibility.

Of course, all these numbers only tell part of the story. Johnson could be a horrible defensive liability, or he could play a style of hockey unsuited to the NHL. This is where it's a good idea to listen to scouts and other people who know what they're talking about (so not me) to get a more complete picture of Johnson's abilities. Hopefully I've helped to put Johnson's stats in context for you, though, so you can set your excitement level more accurately.

That TL;DR was also TL, so I still DR

Andreas Johnson is pretty good and you should be excited, but not, like, Nylander-excited.