U.S. Naval Base Norfolk Virginia…World’s Largest Naval Base

UFC Norfolk isn’t a call your friends so they watch this fight, kind of fight card. It kind of stinks that Deiveson Figueiredo missed weight, he will no longer be able to win the 125 lbs strap. It’s amusing to watch the speculation of Henry Cejudo somehow leaving UFC Norfolk with the 125 lbs belt. Imagine, fights over, Deiveson Figueiredo wins and they cut to Henry Cejudo on a boat with Razor Ramon shooting a promo with 2 UFC belts. But there are some really fun fights on this card and I’m going to talk about them.

r/TheFightGuy

UFC Auckland, New Zealand RECAP

So, I’ve immersed myself within the online gambling community because my blog has a gambling component. I join this reddit group or that Facebook group hoping to share my hobby with fellow MMA fans. Being apart of these gambling bodies has been a spectacular experience. I’ve learned about slot machine strategies, taking $200 and turning it into $20,000 and leaving with $0, the over/under of countries to be affected by coronavirus, politics gambling, and my personal favorite, this dude betting on the weather. Some of these stories are fun, but my overwhelming takeaway is gambling can be a real problem for people. When The Fight Guy and The Fight Girl went to UFC Rochester, TFG put $50 online figuring it would be more fun to have a rooting interest in every fight. That day, TFG created a conviction to never reload. If there’s one thing you take away from The Fight Guy, it’s operate off of convictions. It might be too late for the guy betting on the weather, but no one get lost in the sauce.

Last week, I was all hot and bothered because I heard Brendan Fitzpatrick use my phrase, “Jiu Jitsu Wizard” twice during the Jan “The Polish Bear” (TFG trademark) Blachowicz vs. Corey Anderson main event. I’ll cue it up for you below, but I was excited that a UFC commentator was possibly reading my blog. Now, I just clicked on an article about Ryan Hall. To my surprise, within the first stanza my phrase, “Jiu Jitsu Wizard” appeared. When I started this blog I made up the phrase, “Jiu Jitsu Wizard” and used it to describe fighters who are next level Jiu Jitsu practitioners like Demian Maia and Jacare Souza. My question is (that I’m hoping someone will answer in the comment section), is Brendan Fitzpatrick’s use of the term “Jiu Jitsu Wizard” enough to think he read my blog and has started a movement, or is “Jiu Jitsu Wizard” a phrase commonly used in the BJJ community?

Last week I talked about how the fight game is immune to cancel culture. I guess Israel Adesanya really wanted to test those waters.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, Tony Grossi is suspended for calling Baker Mayfield a midget.

Dan Hooker’s walkout song was, “Many Men Wish Death Upon Me”-50 Cent. You have a main event in your hometown, which is a million miles away from everything. I’m sure soooooooooooooooooo many people wish death upon Dan Hooker. Takedowns are cheats codes in MMA. Felder walks down Hooker all fight, lands more strikes, and does more damage. The difference in that fight was a takedown that did no damage that Felder got up from? Octagon control should matter more than a damageless takedown. I love the “Who would win in a fight to the death?” Analogy. Paul Felder wins a fight to the death every time. It’s a shame that was Paul Felder’s last fight, I thought he was going to be the UFC Ireland main eventer. He will be a great addition to the commentary booth. — — — — What I just wrote was in the heat of passion complimented by a couple Bud Lights right after the fight. After the 2nd round, The Fight Girl was washing dishes and declining my request for her to sit her “Lucky Spot”. After the 3rd round, I interrupted The Fight Girl’s speech on how luck doesn’t matter by forcefully taking her arms and placing her in her spot. My point is, I’m a Felder guy. I really thought if he were to win that fight he would KO Justin Gaethje in a number 1 contender fight. I don’t think it’s a coincidence rumors of Justin Gaethje vs. Conor McGregor for this summer are surfacing this week. But, it was a close fight. I scored it for Felder, 2 of 3 judges scored it for Hooker, and Felder retired. It is what it is, it’s not what it’s not. It’s possible the UFC looks at that fight and offers Felder an opponent like Cowboy or Al Iaquinta and Dan Hooker Dustin Poirier in a double lateral move that keeps both fighters in the title picture. But, I hope he retires. He’s got a good commentary gig and this sport isn’t kind to those that stick around too long. There’s a rule in life, it’s better to leave too early than too late. It’s hard to say Paul Felder isn’t leaving on top, the fans thought he won…

Boxing is back. I had an awesome time watching Wilder vs. Fury 2. The theatrical entrances were cool, the underdog won, there was a decisive winner by KO, a towel was thrown, and Tyson Fury lead the crowd in a sing-along to “American Pie”. I love a good sing-along. “Tyson, how did you feel about the fight?” “First, I want to thank Jesus Christ. And then I’m going to sing.” (Takes microphone) I think that’s the best post-fight interview I’ve ever seen. The UFC has been put on notice, that is how it’s done. Stipe Miocic, I’m anticipating a song after you defend your title against DC. Apparently, Deontay Wilder’s theatrical entrance was problematic. Wilder claims the weight of his “entrance suit” was 40 lbs and left his legs dead in the 7th round. Reasons why you lost never play well with the public, but I can see how wearing a 40 lbs armored, middle finger chest-crested, light-up suit accompanied by rapper D Smoke performing “Black Habits” is not the best way to enter the fight of your life. Wilder activated his rematch clause. “I either win or I learn.”-Nelson Mandela. I anticipate less History Channel’s “Knight Fight” and more History Channel’s “Knife or Death” for the rematch.

Does anyone know anything about mining the ocean floor, because I think I’m about to become a billionaire.

Joseph Benavidez (-140) Deiveson Figueiredo (+120)

Joseph Benavidez (5'4", 65" reach, 35 years old, California, USA)

Alright, Joe Jitsu here we are. Husband of ESPN reporter Megan Olivi.

Things I like:

Joe commits to the calf kick that Joe Rogan talks about every fight card.

He has a nice left body kick from the southpaw stance against an orthodox fighter.

He stays on the outside and finds opportunities to connect with punches.

Haven’t seen a problem with his cardio.

Good wrestler.

Joe is pretty good at everything, but not really dominant in one area or another in my opinion.

Things I don’t like:

Joe can be hit with punches. Sergio Pettis caught him and Jussier Formiga caught him.

He doesn’t have a defining characteristic where he’s great.

Deiveson Figueiredo (5'5", 68" reach, 32 years old, Brazil)

This Figueiredo guy is exciting. Henry Cejudo probably did save the flyweight division by beating TJ. The critique was, “Flyweights are boring.” This guy isn’t.

Things I like:

Figueiredo is good everywhere, he hasn’t shown a real hole in his game.

Power. The guy carries real power at 125 lbs.

I like how he mixes in lunging elbow attacks in his stand up. His elbows have cut open Jussier Formiga from the bottom position.

Figueiredo is really good at trip takedowns from the fence with the body lock.

His Jiu Jitsu can compete with anyone. Formiga had top position a lot and Figueiredo always got up. Formiga is about as good as it gets.

His takedown defense is excellent. Tim Elliot tried to take him down and got caught in a tight guillotine. He can stuff you and choke you if you shoot.

Pretty decent distance managing left jab.

Physically strong.

Things I don’t like:

Figueiredo fights likes he’s trying to kill you. The problem is when you have that mentality, you can be hit. And Figueiredo has been hit and can be hit to the head in his standup.

This same attribute applies when Figueiredo has top position. He will stand up and look to kill you with a devastating punch. He can be hit with up kicks when he’s trying to kill you.

He significantly slowed down in the Alexandre Pantoja fight near the end of the 3rd round. That fight was a violent affair. If you ask me, he had just the right amount of pacing. He had nothing left to give at the end and he clearly won the fight. But, I have questions how his cardio will hold up in his 1st 5 round affair.

Prediction

I don’t see much of an advantage in the grappling or Jiu Jitsu department for either fighter so I think that will cancel itself out. Benavidez needs to have a lot of success with his calf kicks and his body kicks from the southpaw stance to win this fight. I know Benavidez has knocked two of his last four opponents out but I give the power advantage to Figueiredo. I don’t think the calf kicks, body kicks, and punches from the perimeter will stop Figueiredo from having success with his boxing. Benavidez I think has the cardio advantage, but I haven’t seen either guy fight in a five round fight. I’m not ready to say Figueiredo gasses out. I can see Figueiredo gaining confidence in the 2nd round and ending the fight by KO.

Betting

There’s enough on tape to say Figueiredo is a good bet at +120. This is a close fight, either of these guys as an underdog would be a good bet.

Figueiredo Wins (+120)

Magomed Ankalaev (-210) Ion Cuțelaba (+190)*

Magomed Ankalaev (6'2, 75" reach, 27, Dagestan)

Things I like:

Protects his chin with his left hand high.

Dangerous left high kick.

Seems to have a lot of power in both his hands and his feet.

He’s a patient striker that can march forward and capitalize when his opponent steps in the pocket.

Good takedown defense.

Things I don’t like:

He’s a little heavy on his lead leg. It’s there to be hit with inside leg kicks from an orthodox fighter.

He won every second but the very last second against Paul Craig. he tapped to a triangle literally the last second in his fight he was dominating. That’s not what you want to see.

Not overly fast with his strikes.

Ion Cuțelaba (6'1", 75", 26 years old, Moldova)

This week I introduced “Jim’s Picks” to the blog. Jim commonly texts me each week with fighters he wants to bet big on. Jim is now in the big leagues and “The Hulk” at (+190) was the first Jim’s picks.

Things I like:

Olympic Greco Roman wrestling background.

Good trips from the clinch against the fence.

Comes out of the gate hot, fast starter.

Heavy top position.

Carries Power.

Things I don’t like:

USADA caught him with steroids. Some sort of blood transfusion therapy he had that went against USADA’s guidelines. I don’t know. If you paint yourself Green and rip your shirt off at the weigh ins, that’s the guy im testing for steroids.

History of walking past Bruce Buffer to his opponent’s face and slitting his own throat with his finger. That’s Bruce’s moment Cuțelaba, stay in your corner.

Serious cardio problem after 1 round.

Doesn’t really set anything up, guy just goes for it. A fighter can be countered with that style.

Prediction

I don’t see this fight going too different than Ankalaev’s fight with Dalcha Lungiambula. Dalcha and Cuțelaba have similar striking styles and I don’t see Cuțelaba’s wrestling being effective. Ankalaev will play matador for 2 rounds to wear down Cuțelaba’s notorious cardio and may catch him in the 3rd round.

Betting

Unfortunately for the inception of “Jim’s Picks” I have to go against “The Hulk” here. I’m don’t really see anything that stands out at a good bet, but I’ll tell you what, I stopped and paused at Cuțelaba wins by decision +1350. If you’re in to taking a shot I think there's worse things you can put your money on. You need to be ahead of the curve to be successful at anything. Maybe Cuțelaba has learned how to pace himself and has success wrestling and wins a decision? Maybe Jim knows something I don’t I’m going with it.

Cuțelaba Wins by Decision (+1350)

Tom Breese (-130) Brendan Allen (+120)

Brendan Allen (6'2", 77" reach, 24 years old, 185 lbs, Roufosport)

Brendan Allen’s brother is disabled. The last time he fought he called for a $50,000 bonus with his finish of Kevin Holland so he could buy his brother a standing wheelchair. The UFC really missed the ball there, not only was Brendan Allen’s fight worthy of a bonus, but the PR of Dana giving a deserving fighter a bonus and saying, “We will buy that wheelchair for you kid.” was absolutely missed.

Things I like:

Brendan Allen is 9–3 inside the unified rules. His 3 loses have come against Eryk Anders, Trevin Giles, and Anthony Hernandez.

Very good chin.

Knees from the clinch.

Good MMA wrestler.

Threatens to finish every fight.

Trains at Roufusport.

Aggressive.

Things I don’t like:

Doesn’t look great off of his back.

Can be hit.

Tom Breese (6'3", 73" reach, 28 years old, England)

Tom Breese seems to have anxiety issues before a fight. What people said about Cowboy Cerrone seems to happen to Tom Breese. And I don’t blame him one bit. I’d wouldn’t step into the octagon, no way. But it is worth talking about since this is what he signed up for.

Things I like:

Black Belt in Jiu Jitsu

Decent jab. Okay boxing.

Nice front kick to the body

High Volume

Things I don’t like:

First fight in 2 years. Anxiety issues.

Long layoff. 1 fight in last 4 years.

Heavy on lead leg.

Not great takedown defense.

Prediction

This is a weird fight to predict. There’s a ton of unknown about Tom Breese but he is very skilled. Brendan Allen looks promising but he’s only had one fight in the UFC against a short notice Kevin Holland. I’m rooting for America here so I’ll take the narrative of Brendan Allen uses his superior MMA wrestling, finds top position, doesn’t get submitted, and wins a decision.

Sergey Spivak (-120) Marcin Tybura (+110)

Sergey Spivak (6'3", 78", 25 years old, Moldova)

This dude strikes me as selling wolf tickets. He was immediately KO’d by Walt Harris and I think anyone on the roster can beat a tired Tai Tuivasa.

Things I like:

He’s young.

Things I don’t like:

Bad striking defense.

Can’t wrestle.

Can be overwhelmed when his opponent attacks.

KO’d right away by Walt Harris.

Fatigue degrades striking. (Fatigues early)

Things I like:

Good wrestler.

Jiu Jitsu Black belt.

Things I don’t like:

Can be hit.

Slow.

Bad striking defense.

Has a tendency to be KO’d.

Prediction

Tybura’s wrestling and Jiu Jitsu is the difference in this fight. Spivak surprised me when he beat Tai Tuivasa. It turns out Tai Tuivasa isn’t very good when he’s tired. These are two heavyweights, either could win, but I’d be surprised if Tybura doesn’t finish this fight in top position with strikes. Maybe 2nd round.

Betting

This Sergey Spivak dude is a wolf ticket salesmen. I don’t write this blog to recommend gambling picks, but Tybura as an underdog is a very good bet in this fight. And let’s have some fun with it.

Marcin Tybura Wins (+110)

Tybura Wins in Round 2 (+725)

Tybura Wins Inside Distance (+250)

The other fight I am interested in for this fight card is Sean Brady vs Ismail Naurdiev. Will give my opinion on that fight in a couple of hours. Check back later if interested.

*Jim’s Picks

I will be adding a new section to the blog. My buddy Jim, the guy who has been known to say, “I knew that was going to happen” will get his chance to prove himself. The OG Fight Guy readers will remember Jim being excommunicated from The Fight Guy’s blog after recommending Clay Guida over Jim Miller. Jim’s back.