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4. Los Angeles Lakers

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 50



LeBron James and Anthony Davis might make up the best duo in the NBA. But, for the second year in a row, general manager Rob Pelinka struggled to assemble an inspiring supporting cast after landing a big name.

The Washington Post's Ben Golliver explained in the wake of Leonard choosing the Clippers over the Lakers and Raptors:

"It’s mind-boggling how quickly the Lakers’ fortunes turned. Early Friday night, James and Davis were yukking it up at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas. Four hours later, Lakers General Manager Rob Pelinka began re-signing Rajon Rondo, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and JaVale McGee while also agreeing to poach Danny Green from the Raptors. That uninspiring returning group struggled with inconsistency and chemistry issues this past season, and the Lakers now appear overly dependent on their two superstars."

You can't blame L.A. for waiting on Kawhi. Even if you have a small chance of landing him, you probably have to take it. And just like Green was an underrated loss for the Raptors, he's an underrated pickup for the Lakers. But those few days in limbo cost them.

There will be questions about the fit with Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. They started to work well together toward the end of their shared time in New Orleans, but Boogie has since torn his Achilles and a quad.

Extended minutes for Rondo will almost certainly hurt. He's projected to add minus-0.9 wins above replacement this season. Avery Bradley's forecast is worse.

But even with all those issues, the Lakers still have LeBron and AD. That alone might be enough.

He's past his peak, but LeBron is still the best teammate Davis has ever had. By a long shot. Their pick-and-roll should be devastating, particularly if Los Angeles is wise enough to play them extended minutes at the 4 and 5.

3. Philadelphia 76ers

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 59



The 76ers lost Jimmy Butler, but they may have gotten better in the process, pun intended.

Neither Josh Richardson nor Al Horford is on Butler's level, but those two, Kyle O'Quinn, Raul Neto and a couple of rookies bolster Philly's depth.

Last season, the Sixers were plus-7.5 points per 100 possessions when Joel Embiid was on the floor and minus-2.5 when he was off.

Now, they can deploy Horford against reserves, even if he starts at the 4. It should be similar to Favors' role in Utah over the last couple of seasons. Horford can be a part of a huge starting five, come out early in the first and third quarters, and dominate backups when Embiid sits.

Richardson, meanwhile, gives Philadelphia another strong defensive wing. In the theoretical Ben Simmons/Richardson/Tobias Harris/Horford/Embiid lineup, Harris is the lone potential weakness.

But really, this team's title chances will be tied pretty tightly to Embiid. If he can live up to his reputation as a top-10 player (he was 22nd in box plus/minus this season) and, probably more importantly, stay healthy, Philly will have a shot.

2. Milwaukee Bucks

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 54



Losing Brogdon could prove significant. Mirotic was helpful last season, as well.

But Milwaukee still has a 24-year-old MVP in Giannis who still hasn't really figured out how to shoot. He still has room to grow, which should terrify opponents.

And he sounds pretty hungry.

"After today, please don't call me MVP," Giannis said at a rally, per his team's Twitter account. "Until I win it again next year!"

Improvements from Giannis, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton holding steady, and George Hill finding his 2019 playoff form for an entire season would make this team a very real contender.

1. Los Angeles Clippers

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 48



Leonard and George going to the Clippers wasn't your typical superstar team-up.

Think back over the last decade or so. The Heat had to strip their roster down to the bare bones to make room for LeBron and Chris Bosh. Ditto for LeBron's Lakers when they added Anthony Davis.

The Clippers signing Kawhi and trading for PG feels closer to the Warriors landing Kevin Durant in 2016.

It's not quite on that level. KD was joining a two-time MVP on a 73-win team. But Kawhi is a two-time Finals MVP, fresh off another title. George just finished third in MVP voting. And they're both going to a team that still has Montrezl Harrell, Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams. Landry Shamet, Ivica Zubac and Maurice Harkless should all be helpful, too.



The Clippers now has star power at the top. But it could be their depth that really makes them dangerous.