Tier 2:

Joel Embiid (23 y/o Outlier Two-Way Playmaking Big: 24.1 PER)

The Process worked. They’ve landed a player that, if healthy, can be the most dominant player in the league. This is obvious despite playing less than 100 regulated games in the last 4 years. He’s the fastest learner of the game I’ve ever seen, at Kansas he showed exponential improvement game by game (didn’t even start at the beginning of the season) and it seems to have translated to the NBA. JoJo’s a 7'2" human sponge. He’s recently been showing glimpses of improved vision out of the double teams, dropping an average of 6.7 assists in the past 3 games, what’s next? There’s no questioning his talent, the discussion around JoJo revolves around just one thing: injuries. Big men injuries have a record that give reason to be concerned, but fuck do I wanna believe. I had JoJo in Tier 1 but downgraded him because of these concerns. The loss of his first 2 seasons is a tragedy to the sport. Just imagine how developed he’d be now if he had 2 seasons worth of NBA experience. He’s shown glimpses of hope for a healthy future. As I’m writing this, he’s had two consecutive games that have gone to overtime, where he’s played 39 and 48 minutes respectively, both career highs. He’s already a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year and that isn’t going to change. He’s the most physically imposing player in the league and pairs that with an advanced skill set.

He’s got a soft touch that juxtaposes his frame and a fluidity that grants him access to moves 7'2" behemoths shouldn’t be capable of.

He shot 36% from deep on 3.2 attempts a game last season (small sample size but still), and I think that’s enough to be considered a threat from the three-point line. He’s this high on my list for one reason: his ceiling. He’s an internet-age Shaq off the court and Hakeem with a jumper on the court. A legend in the making. JoJo will be one of the NBA greats, and if not he’ll be one of its great what-ifs.

Karl-Anthony Towns (22 y/o Outlier Offensive Playmaking Big: 23.5 PER)

Towns arguably had the best sophomore season since LeBron, being absolutely dominant not only after the All-Star break but in his last 41 games. Putting up a stat line of 28.4–12.7–2.4 on 59/44/85 shooting splits.

If he just simply maintained his offensive output from last season and shown some improvement on the defensive end of the floor he’d be in the top tier but it just isn’t that simple. He’s failed to make progress despite being labeled as a dominant defensive force at Kentucky. He has all the tools but lacks all the awareness necessary. He’s young enough to still earn my hope but it doesn’t look good, he’s in the bottom 10th percentile in DRPM among centers and there isn’t much to show that’ll change. Towns’ defensive projection is more theoretical than it is rational but again his athletic tools + age give room for optimism and you can see this when he’s engaged defending the perimeter.

The reason Towns is ranked so highly on my list however is due to his historically great proven offensive production. He’s a known commodity and there’s significant value in that. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that Towns will be averaging (or at the very least be capable of) 25 efficient points a game while being a legit threat from the perimeter for the next 10 years. Add above average rim-protection to the equation and you have a perennial MVP candidate. If Thibs would stop pairing him with other bigs and force him to play at the 4, maybe that’d hasten his development just out of need; trial through fire anybody? Thibs also has to sign some fucking wings. They literally only have one wing off the bench contributing minutes and it’s my guy Jamal, a 37 year old that really shouldn’t be playing 20 minutes a game and doesn’t do much for spacing, but Thibs will be Thibs. It’s worth noting Karl’s always healthy which is big considering the other bigs on this list.

Ben Simmons (21 y/o Two-Way Playmaking Forward: 18.4 PER)

I might get shit for putting Simmons ahead of Porzingis but it wasn’t easy to differentiate the value of both. In the end Ben’s outlier passing and age won me over. It was a debate between a stretch-5 with rim-protection or a 6'10" point guard with outlier passing ability and Ben’s age was basically a tie breaker. He’s a unanimous pick for Rookie of the Year and has blown even my expectations and I was as high as anyone on his potential (I used his Summer League highlights as basketball porn). The “Fresh Prince” has a combination of size, vision, and mobility that is only shared with only two other players in the NBA: Giannis and LeBron. Currently 2 of the top 5 best players in the NBA. His ability to create for others is elite and that’ll only grow from here on out.

His athleticism doesn’t just benefit him offensively but it also translates defensively contrary to the scouting reports coming out of LSU. He can guard wings, forwards, and has lived up to his point guard label by defending at the point of attack. He offers rare defensive versatility and that gets slept on. Despite lacking range he’s been punishing defenses with his size, frame, and sheer athleticism. He’s unstoppable in transition.

As with Giannis he’s got a clear weakness and it’s his shooting. He’s aware of this and it shows, he’s only attempted 9 shots from deep and has failed to convert any. This is where my tinfoil hat comes out. I believe, just as Kevin O’Connor does, that he’s shooting with the wrong hand. There are indicators EVERYWHERE. The stats back it up.

Kevin ain’t dying on this hill alone

The film backs it up.

I’m not saying he’ll magically be wet once he switches hands but it’s definitely worth a try. There may be even more potential that’s yet to be realized.

Kristaps Porzingis (22 y/o Stretch Rim-Protector: 24 PER)

Kristaps has a solid argument to be higher but I’ve just been lower than the consensus but being in this tier reinforces his value. I’d like to further explain my argument of putting Ben ahead of him. A knock on Ben’s ceiling that I’ve heard is that due to being a primary-initiator his usage rate limits the potential of an offensive scheme, which seems to make sense on the surface but just check BBRef and you’ll see that Porzingis actually has a 10% higher usage rate in comparison. What Porzingis does have is offensive versatility that Ben just can’t compensate for with his lack of efficient off-ball offense. Every team could use a rim-protecting stretch 5, it’s become maybe the most desired archetype in the game. I mean the man’s 7'3" can shoot and swat the fuck out of people, why wouldn’t you want one?

He’s become the prototypical unicorn and has displayed an ability to single-handedly change the outcome of a game. He simply gets buckets and it’s nearly impossible to deny his shot, he gets it wherever he wants.

His passing could use some developing but his ability to stretch the floor helps compensate. I’d like to see him commit to being a full-time center, something he’s been vocal in expressing his reluctance (Davis is another example pre-Boogie). This would maximize his ability to both stretch the floor and dominate in the paint on both sides of the court. What I worry with him most is his fragility on the floor, he doesn’t have the frame that assures me he’ll take impact well (a reason he’s hesitant about being a full-time center). He’s more injury-prone than his reputation would indicate. He also doesn’t have the ability to handle the ball fluidly, his build is a bit awkward and you can see he’s a bit slower and more rigid than you’d like despite his lack of weight (KD and him are both listed at 240 as a point of reference). Nate Duncan also brought up a good point on his podcast by mentioning that he always starts off hot in the first 2 months of the season and I also think that’s worth a mention. I’m not sure what his potential is and he’s got time to convince me of what he’s truly capable of (hopefully in the playoffs). Nonetheless he’s an undeniable star but let’s see if he has it in him to be the greatest.

Tier 3:

Markelle Fultz (19 y/o Generational Two-Way Scheme-Changer)

It’s late-December and Markelle still hasn’t returned from his “muscle-imbalance” fiasco. I’m either gonna look really bold or really dumb with my faith in Fultz but I’m buying as much Markelle stock as I can while the market’s low. I’m disappointed but not surprised in the overreaction that’s revolved around his struggles in the past 5 months. The spotlight is the price you pay for going #1 in the draft. I don’t wanna get into the ‘muscle imbalance’ injury too much since it’s a controversial debate that’s influence by a noticeable amount of groupthink (an issue that’s extremely prevalent in regards to scouting prospects in general). I will say the injury seems suspect but recently Jay King, a Celtics reporter, has released an article sharing his own experience with a very similar situation that I think is worth a read. Frankly I think anyone thinking it’s anything but the injury is blatantly shitting on empirical evidence. His weekly trips to Kentucky are a perfect example of this, there’s theories I’ve seen saying that the Sixers are simply ‘hiding’ him to keep up the ruse of an injury. If these same conspirators just took a look of why he’s there they’d know that he’s been rehabbing with Dr. Ben Kibler, arguably the best shoulder specialist in the country. The injury is apparent in that he wasn’t taking any long range jumpers, when just months prior he was making these shots consistently:

https://gfycat.com/ifr/HandmadeRareCygnet

To think his refusal to take jumpers has nothing to do with the injury is simply illogical. The most simple and rational explanation is the Sixers front office is just interested in saving their own asses by playing an injured pick, possibly to avoid the criticism of having yet another injured #1 pick. They fucked up.

I simply ask you guys to watch some UW Fultz. I have never been so sure in a prospect’s success before draft night and I have the film to back up that claim.

If he had more exposure he’d have considerably more hype but the combination of playing on an awful UW team that could only be viewed through the shitty PAC-12 Network (west coast prospects also get less attention by east coast media due to the time zone difference) and his Kawhi-like demeanor result in a bland product; but his ceiling and production are anything but bland. He’s the embodiment of everything you’d want in a modern guard and looked like a bonafide star in perhaps the worst situation in college basketball. Yet somehow was the only player in college basketball history to average 23 points, 5.5 assist, and 5.5 rebounds. I had the privilege to watch Lonzo and him play against each other (I wrote a long piece on Reddit getting really in-depth about my experience scouting the matchup) and since then I’ve been more than bullish on his talent. He’s got the potential to be James Harden, a generational guard who’s been a constant front-runner for MVP (and I think he can be a better defender but that’d require another paragraph and I think I’ve written enough but fuck it I might just write an entire piece on him). Don’t sleep on Fultz, it speaks volumes that he was the consensus 1st pick in what’s beginning to look like the best draft of the decade. The shoulder issue is concerning but his résumé definitely isn’t. Trust the process.

Edit: After seeing recent footage of Markelle shooting my confidence has taken a pretty big hit but I’ll leave my original opinion as is for transparency.

Nikola Jokic (22 y/o Outlier Passing Big: 24.1 PER)

What Jokic did last season after being placed in the starting lineup was amazing, putting up a stat line of 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists in only 29 minutes transforming Denver into the #1 ranked offense in the NBA. His impact on the offensive end is undeniable, he’s the best passing big in the league and it isn’t a secret anymore (shoutout to u/eg14000). His vision from the high post is deadly, if he has a smaller defender he’ll just post them up and use his size to get to the basket where his soft touch allows him to score with exceptional efficiency (his career TS% is at 61%). If you decide to send a double team you’ll more than likely be giving up a wide open jumper/layup to Harris, Murray, Chandler, Barton, etc.

From a physical standpoint, he’s more fluid than you’d expect just based off the eye-test. Look at these clips and you’ll see what I mean:

Despite his mobility in the open court I definitely would not label him as athletic. In the half court he lacks anything resembling a quick first step hence his inability to effectively attack closeouts that he warrants due to his adequate jumper. This mobility is what makes Towns such a tantalizing prospect but by no means should’ve been expected from Jokic, it’s just worth a mention since it does limit his upside. Nonetheless he’s 6'11" with a 7'3" wingspan, a legit center, with a great pair of hands. He reminds me of a prime Pau Gasol already with even better passing. He had a historically great sophomore year on offense, in the 21st century only two other players have had more offensive win shares…

…and to think this may be his floor. I’m not convinced he can be the first option on a championship team quite yet but he sure as hell will be an offensive juggernaut for years to come.

Disclaimer: Basketball-Reference & NBA.com were my source for all stats. All stats were accurate as of December 30th.