Hello once again Raider brethren. What a wild ride we have been on this year! I don’t think any of us saw this coming (and if you say did, well then you are lying!). In any case, this ride is far from over. In fact, we are just starting to get warmed up.

Speaking of warming up, our illustrious Raiders are gearing up to bring their wagon east yet again. This time, they will be setting their sites on chilly Kansas City for a critical matchup with the second place Chiefs on Thursday night. I don’t have to tell any of you how enormous this game will be for both franchises.

For all practical purposes this matchup is shaping up to be an early playoff contest with the winner having the inside track on the AFC West and a much-coveted first round playoff bye. Conversely, the loser is likely looking at a road-only Wild Card ticket to the post-season tournament. Clearly a lot will be riding on the outcome of this bone-chilling contest set for Arrowhead Stadium later this week.

With this as out backdrop, lets jump right into the numbers associated with this week’s edition of the TRF Playoff Pontificator.

So, how do things stand right now? Well let’s take a closer look…

Prior to kickoff, here are the odds for the Raiders and the Chefs to make the tournament, win the Division, get a bye and receive home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Oakland (10-2; 1st in the AFC West):

The Division-leading Raiders currently are the AFC’s number 1 Seed and have a 99% chance of receiving a playoff berth, a 47% chance of winning the AFC West (and earning a 1st round bye). They also have a 34% shot at receiving the number 1 Seed, which would keep the team in Oakland for nearly the entire month of January (after the completion of their week 17 1/1/17 contest in Denver).

What about the Chiefs? How are things shaping up for them?

Kansas City (9-3; 2nd place in the AFC west):

The Chiefs currently hold a Wild Card slot (Seed 5) and sit 1 game behind the Oakland Raiders in the highly competitive AFC West. KC has a 95% chance of reaching playoffs, a 45% chance of winning the AFC West (and earning a 1st round bye). The odds that Chiefs receive the number 1 Seed currently sits at 10%.

All in all, quite similar numbers save for the Seed 1 likelihood. Here, the Raiders own the edge due to favorable tiebreakers they hold over New England.

Ok, this is all well and good Tuck, but how will things change after the two teams play on Thursday night? Good question…

If the Raiders win on Thursday night:

– Raider odds to make the Playoffs: 99% (unchanged)

– Raider odds to win the AFC West/secure bye: 81% (+34%)

– Raider odds to secure Home Field Advantage: 61% (+27%)

– Chiefs odds to make the Playoffs: 90% (-5%)

– Chiefs odds to win the AFC West/secure bye: 12% (-32%)

– Chiefs odds to secure Home Field Advantage: 3% (-7%)

If the Raiders lose on Thursday night:

– Raider odds to make the Playoffs: 99% (unchanged)

– Raider odds to win the AFC West: 27%/secure bye (-20%)

– Raider odds to secure Home Field Advantage: 16% (-18%)

– Chiefs odds to make the Playoffs: 99% (+4%)

– Chiefs odds to win the AFC West/secure bye: 65% (+20%)

– Chiefs odds to secure Home Field Advantage: 16% (+6%)

If Oakland wins on Thursday they continue to control their own destiny. Specifically as it relates to claiming the Division crown and a 1st round bye, the Raiders would simply need to win any 2 of their remaining 3 games (@SD; vs. Indy; @Den). Of course Oakland could win the AFCW at 12-4 (or even 11-5) but those scenarios obvious would require various levels of external ‘help’ to achieve.

Conversely, should Oakland lose on Thursday, the situation begins to dim considerably as it relates to winning the West and securing a 1st round bye. Here, even if the Raiders were to win out and go 13-3, they would still need help in the form of a Chiefs loss (vs. Titans; vs. Denver; @SD). This is due to the fact that the Chiefs would own the head-to-head tiebreaker by a 2-0 margin over the Raiders.

Other worthwhile notes related to Raider playoff possibilities in Week 14:

At 11-2, Oakland clinches a playoff berth with either a Denver loss (@Tenn) or a Miami loss (vs. Az).

At 10-3, Oakland cannot secure a playoff berth. At 11-2, Oakland cannot win the AFC West (although a Titans win over Denver would increase the odds from 82% to 86%)

So there you have it. Obviously the Raiders have a big test in front of them. How they handle it will go a long way in determining their playoff fate come January. I for one have faith in Carr and company to once again answer the challenge standing in front of them. One thing is for certain. Both teams will leave everything they have on the field, making this a must-see matchup that has the potential to be an epic battle for the ages.

Written by: Tuck Rule Fool

Last week’s prediction poll results:

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