The first double gameweek of the season is upon us, with Manchester City and Stoke both playing twice.

The Citizens travel to Sunderland, whilst the Potters host Middlesbrough, before the pair meet at The Etihad on Wednesday. Anytime goalscorer and clean sheet odds are not currently available for the second match, so our analysis below only takes account of the weekend matches, but we elevate City and Stoke players when it comes to squad selection on the basis that they play twice in this round of fixtures.

Defensive odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet Man Utd 1.8 56% Man City 2.12 47% Stoke 2.25 44% Chelsea 2.26 44% West Brom 2.4 42% Tottenham 2.45 41% Leicester 2.45 41% Swansea 2.55 39% Southampton 2.6 38% Liverpool 3.3 30% Crystal Palace 3.4 29% Watford 3.65 27% Middlesbrough 3.85 26% Burnley 4.1 24% Hull 4.65 22% Arsenal 5 20% Everton 6.1 16% West Ham 6.2 16% Bournemouth 11 9% Sunderland 13 8%

Both Manchester clubs are prominent in our thinking for Gameweek 27, with United topping the (single) gameweek rankings. They have a 56% chance of keeping Bournemouth at bay in Saturday’s early kick off, whilst cross-town rivals City have a 47% chance of registering a clean sheet away to Sunderland, and then host Stoke. Antonio Valencia and John Stones are our chosen routes into each defence, providing attacking and bonus point potential respectively.

Stoke and Chelsea (both 44% – albeit the Potters then have a second game) complete the top 4 for Gameweek 27. A home game against Middlesbrough bodes well for Mark Hughes’ men, given the attacking profligacy of their opponents, whilst Chelsea travel to West Ham on Monday evening, looking to get back to their defensive best. Lee Grant provides excellent value between the sticks, whilst Marcos Alonso, as always, offers a potent attacking threat.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we opt for Hull’s budget shot stopper Eldin Jakupovic (£4.0m – 22%) as our backup keeper, with goal machine Gareth McAuley (£4.5m – 42%) and Southampton’s Jack Stephens (£4.0m – 38%) taking the second and third spots on our bench respectively.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from West Ham (16% – home to Chelsea), Bournemouth (9% – away to Man United) and Sunderland (8% – home to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring Zlatan Ibrahimovic 1.62 62% Sergio Aguero 1.67 60% Harry Kane 1.9 53% Diego Costa 2 50% Henrikh Mkhitaryan 2.6 38% Dele Alli 2.7 37% Fernando Llorente 2.7 37% Eden Hazard 2.75 36% Son Heung-Min 2.8 36% Raheem Sterling 2.85 35% Jamie Vardy 2.9 34% Daniel Sturridge 3 33% Salomon Rondon 3 33% Gylfi Sigurdsson 3 33% Kevin de Bruyne 3 33% Yaya Toure 3 33% Paul Pogba 3 33% Leroy Sane 3 33% Romelu Lukaku 3.05 33% Sadio Mane 3.1 32% Alexis Sanchez 3.2 31% Roberto Firmino 3.25 31% Shinji Okazaki 3.25 31% Manolo Gabbiadini 3.25 31% Pedro 3.3 30% Christian Benteke 3.4 29% Riyad Mahrez 3.5 29% Marko Arnautovic 3.5 29% Peter Crouch 3.6 28% Philippe Coutinho 3.75 27% Troy Deeney 3.75 27% Nacer Chadli 3.75 27% Willian 3.85 26% Christian Eriksen 3.85 26% Jermain Defoe 4 25% Alvaro Negredo 4 25% Nathan Redmond 4 25% Andy Carroll 4.33 23% Sam Vokes 4.33 23% Adam Lallana 4.5 22% Theo Walcott 4.5 22% Dusan Tadic 4.55 22% Cesc Fabregas 5 20% Kevin Mirallas 5.5 18% Adama Diomande 5.5 18% Robert Snodgrass 5.5 18% Matt Phillips 5.5 18% Cristhian Stuani 5.5 18% Alex Iwobi 5.5 18% Benik Afobe 6 17% James Milner 6 17% Wilfried Zaha 6 17% Mesut Ozil 6.3 16% Ross Barkley 6.5 15% Manuel Lanzini 6.5 15% Yohan Cabaye 6.5 15% Andros Townsend 6.5 15% Fabio Borini 7 14% Scott Arfield 7.5 13% Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 7.5 13% Etienne Capoue 8 13% Adama Traore 8 13% Junior Stanislas 8.5 12% Tom Carroll 14 7% Tom Davies 15 7%

Sergio Aguero (60% chance of scoring against Sunderland followed by an extra game at home to Stoke) provides top billing for Gameweek 27 and takes our captain’s armband. He is joined up front by cup final hero Zlatan Ibrahimovic (62%) and Fernando Llorente (37%) ahead of home games against Bournemouth and Burnley respectively.

The bookies also fancy the chances of Golden Boot joint leader Harry Kane and Chelsea’s Diego Costa, but the duo unfortunately prove too expensive for our squad this gameweek.

In midfield, the double gameweek again promotes a City asset to the top of the class, with Raheem Sterling (35% and a second fixture) our first pick. Dele Alli (37%) now has 12 league goals for the season and joins Sterling in our midfield ahead of his home game against Everton on Sunday.

Gylfi Sigurdsson (33%) and Pedro (30%) have both been in good form of late and complete our starting XI. Swansea’s Icelandic talisman has the potential to enjoy his home game against Burnley, whilst Pedro continues to offer great value as a Chelsea midfield pick and travels to West Ham for a London derby on Monday evening. Etienne Capoue (13%) once again completes our squad with his £4.5m valuation vital for our budget.

The bookies also rate a host of midfield options in Gameweek 27; Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Eden Hazard, Heung-Min Son, Kevin de Bruyne, Yaya Toure, Paul Pogba, Leroy Sane, Sadio Mane, Alexis Sanchez and Roberto Firmino, but we have to forgo all of the aforementioned midfielders for reasons such as starting security, injury doubt, budget, or the fact that we already have 3 players from a certain club.