So, many people talk about the hurdles that would have to be overcome to launch something from one point on earth to another.



There is one Earth-to-Earth market that would be feasible: trips where the distance is greater than 8000 miles. Someone whose time is worth 500 dollars an hour would benefit greatly. If you cut 15 hours off of a trip, that person saves 7500 bucks. So, modestly wealthy people, essentially. That's the market you break into - wealthy people on a time crunch.



Of course, this is after BFR has safely flown a great many times and has overcome a lot of regulatory hurdles. They may not be as bad as you think: airplanes have a similar destructive potential, except you can't just hijack a rocket. So, exceptional reliability is needed, probably the hardest part.



It's after these two pieces happen that it will expand into the sub-8000 mile market.



The trick to making accurate predictions about the future, I think, is to look at principles and also see if there's actually a gradual point-A to point-B to point-C approach until you hit Z, unlike what other "futuristic" failed technology companies do which is try to go from point A to point Z and just whine about not getting the VC needed to fund these "ambitious" projects.



People criticize SpaceX for being ambitious because they're confusing SpaceX with the people who think you can go from point A to point Z in one leap and fail as a result.



So, here's what I see happening:



Point A: SpaceX's manned mission to the space station with dragon. (2018)

Point B: manned mission to the space station with BFR. (2021)

Point C: manned mission to Mars with BFR. (2024-2028)

Point D: offer trips to space for space tourists after the BFR has shown moderate safety in these other two respects. (2024-2030)

Point E: work on restructuring regulations around rocketry. (2024-2032)

Point F: create a second spaceport deliberately on the other side of planet that offers space tourism. Australia would be great. (2028-2032)

Point G: with two compatible launch pads on opposite ends of the planet, offer trips across the planet. (2030-2036)

Point H: create additional infrastructure to streamline the speed at which you are processed and launched. (2032-2040)

Point I: expand this market across the planet and shorter distances. (2036-2050)



So, over time? Decently likely. Soon? Depends on your definition of soon. I'd never have thought it was a possibility, so 15-30 years isn't that long in comparison.