Now that the draft is over, time for an update to my previous offseason posts:

Not including UDFAs signed by the Chargers after the draft, they currently have 64 players either under contract for 2020 or just drafted. Here they are, along with their 2020 cap numbers (using Over the Cap by default; using Spotrac for drafted players):

Edge Melvin Ingram $16,625,000 Edge Joey Bosa $14,360,000 WR Keenan Allen $12,650,000 CB Casey Hayward $10,750,000 TE Hunter Henry $10,607,000 G Trai Turner $9,000,000 MLB Denzel Perryman $7,512,500 QB Tyrod Taylor $7,500,000 C Mike Pouncey $7,250,000 WR Mike Williams $6,374,109 CB Chris Harris Jr. $5,750,000 IDL Linval Joseph $5,500,000 RB Austin Ekeler $5,000,000 RT Bryan Bulaga $4,833,333 QB Justin Herbert $4,832,496 TE Virgil Green $3,500,000 SS Derwin James $3,378,805 CB Michael Davis $3,259,000 IDL Jerry Tillery $2,595,945 LB Nick Vigil $2,400,000 G-C Dan Feeney $2,364,158 LB Kenneth Murray $2,359,078 FS Rayshawn Jenkins $2,298,553 DB Desmond King $2,203,000 T Sam Tevi $2,173,451 G Forrest Lamp $2,121,288 Edge Uchenna Nwosu $1,570,794 DB Nasir Adderley $1,075,480 IDL Justin Jones $963,535 LB Kyzir White $913,610 T Trey Pipkins $894,269 LB Drue Tranquill $839,702 Edge Isaac Rochell $825,000 C-G Scott Quessenberry $821,063 RB Joshua Kelly $805,085 WR Darius Jennings $775,000 CB Brandon Facyson $753,334 TE Stephen Anderson $750,000 PK Michael Badgley $750,000 RB Justin Jackson $750,000 LB Malik Jefferson $750,000 G-T Trenton Scott $750,000 G Cole Toner $750,000 QB Easton Stick $744,655 Edge Emeke Egbule $714,239 WR Joe Reed $695,077 P Ty Long $695,000 IDL Cortez Broughton $694,580 SS Roderic Teamer $675,666 CB Tevaughn Campbell $675,000 WR Jalen Guyton $675,000 LS Cole Mazza $675,000 CB Quenton Meeks $675,000 WR Jason Moore $675,000 WR Andre Patton $675,000 S Alohi Gilman $657,051 WR KJ Hill $636,207 G Koda Martin $613,000 IDL P.J. Johnson $610,000 WR Tyron Johnson $610,000 RT Storm Norton $610,000 TE Donald Parham $610,000 T Tyree St. Louis $610,000 TE Andrew Vollert $610,000

Some notes and assumptions about this list:

Henry's cap hit above is the franchise tag value. I assume the Chargers will sign him to a market value contract soon, which could lower his cap number. I'm not certain by how much, so I am just going with the currently reported number for now.

I assume the team will extend Bosa's contract this season, but I assume his 2020 cap hit will not change.

I have seen speculation on this site that Ingram may be traded and that Green may be released as a cap casualty. I don't think either one of those moves should or will happen, especially Ingram now that the draft has passed.

I assume Pouncey will return healthy enough to be expected to start and play the entire season in 2020. So I will not consider him as a possible cap casualty. I also will not consider him as a candidate for contract extension, since I think he needs to prove he can stay healthy before another contract extension.

I am going to assume these 13 players do not make the final roster: TE Anderson, CB Campbell, WR Guyton, IDL Johnson, WR Johnson, G Martin, CB Meeks, WR Moore, RT Norton, WR Patton, T St. Louis, T Toner, TE Vollert.

That leaves this group of 51 players I expect to make the final roster:

Edge Melvin Ingram $16,625,000 Edge Joey Bosa $14,360,000 WR Keenan Allen $12,650,000 CB Casey Hayward $10,750,000 TE Hunter Henry $10,607,000 G Trai Turner $9,000,000 MLB Denzel Perryman $7,512,500 QB Tyrod Taylor $7,500,000 C Mike Pouncey $7,250,000 WR Mike Williams $6,374,109 CB Chris Harris Jr. $5,750,000 IDL Linval Joseph $5,500,000 RB Austin Ekeler $5,000,000 RT Bryan Bulaga $4,833,333 QB Justin Herbert $4,832,496 TE Virgil Green $3,500,000 SS Derwin James $3,378,805 CB Michael Davis $3,259,000 IDL Jerry Tillery $2,595,945 LB Nick Vigil $2,400,000 G-C Dan Feeney $2,364,158 LB Kenneth Murray $2,359,078 FS Rayshawn Jenkins $2,298,553 DB Desmond King $2,203,000 T Sam Tevi $2,173,451 G Forrest Lamp $2,121,288 Edge Uchenna Nwosu $1,570,794 DB Nasir Adderley $1,075,480 IDL Justin Jones $963,535 LB Kyzir White $913,610 T Trey Pipkins $894,269 LB Drue Tranquill $839,702 Edge Isaac Rochell $825,000 C-G Scott Quessenberry $821,063 RB Joshua Kelly $805,085 WR Darius Jennings $775,000 CB Brandon Facyson $753,334 PK Michael Badgley $750,000 RB Justin Jackson $750,000 LB Malik Jefferson $750,000 G-T Trenton Scott $750,000 QB Easton Stick $744,655 Edge Emeke Egbule $714,239 WR Joe Reed $695,077 P Ty Long $695,000 IDL Cortez Broughton $694,580 SS Roderic Teamer $675,666 LS Cole Mazza $675,000 S Alohi Gilman $657,051 WR KJ Hill $636,207 TE Donald Parham $610,000

Now let's update the cap situation.

The 2020 salary cap has been established at $198.2M. Per Spotrac, the Chargers rolled over $4,210,448 from 2019, bumping their 2020 cap to $202,410,448. The cap hits for the 51 players above total to $177,232,063. Per Spotrac, the Chargers currently have $8,155,000 in dead cap space in 2020, but OTC shows $8,550,446. I trust OTC more, so will use their currently reported number. So accounting for the 51 players above and the dead cap space, the team has $16,627,939 in remaining cap space. The practice squad will take up $2.142M in cap space. See link in 3/15 post. Deducting that leaves $14,485,939 in remaining cap space. But the new CBA enables teams to call up 1-2 practice squad players each week, moving their roster from 53 to 54 or 55 players in those weeks. For those games, the practice squad players get paid at the NFL level. The rules are such that I assume teams will do this only when they have more than 5 players on the active roster who are injured and cannot play, but will not go on IR. So it is necessary to set aside some number of games of minimum NFL salary. I'm going to guess that Telesco will reserve enough to cover 1 minimum salary all season - $610K. Deducting that leaves $13,875,939. The team also needs to reserve cap space for IR replacements during the season. I will assume $4M. Deducting this leaves $9,875,939 in remaining cap space.

Now let's move on to talking about completing the roster. I identified 51 players above, assuming all 6 Chargers draft picks will make the final roster. So there are 2 roster spots left to be filled.

This is a good time to look at the UDFAs that have been signed since the draft ended:

LB Asmar Bilal, Notre Dame RB Darius Bradwell, Tulane CB John Brannon, Western Carolina LB Cole Christiansen, Army WR Jeff Cotton, Idaho G Joshua Dunlop, Texas-San Antonio NT Breiden Fehoko, LSU LB Romeo Finley, Miami DE Joe Gaziano, Northwestern G Nate Gilliam, Wake Forest FB Bobby Holly, LSU DE Jesse Lemonier, Liberty CB Kevin McGill, Eastern Michigan FB Gabe Nabers, FSU TE Jared Rice, Fresno State T Ryan Roberts, FSU WR Dalton Schoen, Kansas State DT T.J. Smith, Arkansas CB Donte Vaughn, Notre Dame

With the COVID-19 situation, it seems it will be harder than usual for UDFAs to make the final roster, since they will likely have less time in camp and offseason activities to learn and impress the coaching staff. After a very limited amount of research on these guys, I think the most likely of these UDFAs to make it is FB/H-back Nabers. So I'm going to count him on my expected active roster, at minimum salary, meaning the team would still have more than $9.2M available to spend.

Here is what that group of 52 looks like positionally:

Offense (24):

QB (3) - Taylor, Herbert (R), Stick

RB (3) - Ekeler, Jackson, Kelley (R)

FB (1) - Nabers (R)

WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Hill (R), Reed (R), Jennings

TE (3) - Henry, Green, Parham

T (3) - Bulaga, Tevi, Pipkins

G (4) - Turner, Feeney, Lamp, Scott

C (2) - Pouncey, Quessenberry

Defense (25):

Edge (5) - Bosa, Ingram, Nwosu, Rochell, Egbule

Interior DL (4) - Joseph, Tillery, Jones, Broughton

LB (6) - Murray (R), Perryman, Tranquill, White, Vigil, Jefferson

CB (5) - Hayward, Harris, King, Davis, Facyson

S (5) - James, Jenkins, Adderley, Teamer, Gilman (R)

Special Teams (3):

PK - Badgley

P - Long

LS - Mazza

IMO the two biggest needs on the roster are LT and IDL, in that order. The problem with LT is that I don't see a strong veteran free agent market remaining to address that... Peters is the guy everyone talks about, and I suppose they could sign him to a 1 year deal to address that need while giving Pipkins another year to develop. That would presumably take most of the remaining cap space.

But it doesn't seem like Telesco and Lynn are concerned about LT. They seem content with Tevi as the notional starter and Pipkins as the notional backup, with Scott or Lamp also able to take snaps there if necessary. I don't have confidence in that group, but I have to conclude that they do.

For IDL, Square might be an option. He was arguably the Chargers' best IDL last season, though that was a low bar, and he remains unsigned. He would probably be due a raise but would still leave the Chargers with some useful remaining cap room.

They also have options to further increase their available cap space:

Sign Henry to a multi-year contract, lowering his 2020 cap number. Sign Bosa to a multi-year contract, lowering his 2020 cap number. (Lowering his 2020 cap number may be a challenge given the annual values expected for his new contract.) Extend Allen, lowering his 2020 cap number. Extend Ingram, lowering his 2020 cap number. Extend Tyrod, lowering his 2020 cap number... if the team feels they need to retain him as a veteran mentor for Herbert beyond this season. Release Green to clear $2.75M.

I doubt #6 will happen, with no proven NFL TEs behind Henry, who has had a number of injuries. I hope #5 doesn't happen. I expect the top 3 items on this list to happen, although it is hard to predict how much cap savings those would generate.

Among the players I listed on my projected roster, these guys would seem to be most at risk for being pushed off the roster by another veteran free agent signing or one of the UDFAs (in no particular order):

G Scott - though Lynn and Telesco seem to have an unwarranted support for him

LB Jefferson

S Teamer - though Lynn has praised him

S Gilman - though it has been a while since one of Telesco's draft picks didn't make the final roster unless due to injury; not even sure who the last one was

Thoughts?