President Donald Trump wants to rebuild the nation’s roads and bridges, boost military spending, slash taxes and build a “great wall.” But Republicans on Capitol Hill have one question for him: How the heck will we pay for all of this?

GOP lawmakers are fretting that Trump’s spending requests, due out in a month or so, will blow a gaping hole in the federal budget — ballooning the debt and undermining the party’s doctrine of fiscal discipline.


Trump has signaled he’s serious about a $1 trillion infrastructure plan, as he promised on the campaign trail. He also wants Republicans to approve extra spending this spring to build a wall along the U.S. southern border and beef up the military — the combined price tag of which could reach $50 billion, insiders say. And that’s to say nothing of tax cuts, which the president’s team has suggested need not necessarily be paid for.

Trump, meanwhile, has made clear he has little interest in tackling the biggest drivers of the national debt: entitlements. Republicans have been yearning to overhaul Medicare and Social Security for decades.

Even without Trump’s pricey wish list, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the $19.9 trillion debt will grow by a further $9.4 trillion over the next decade if nothing changes.

“I don’t think you can do infrastructure, raise defense spending, do a tax cut, keep Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security just as they are, and balance the budget. It’s just not possible,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a senior member of the House Budget Committee. “Sooner or later, they’re going to come to grips with it because the numbers force you to.”

Trump’s staunchest allies in Congress counter that the president deserves some leeway to get something tangible done on jobs.

“If there is a temporary increase in the deficit to get our economy growing, I think my fellow Republican members are willing to look at the long game,” said Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), a Trump loyalist. “A growing economy and growing our way to success and financial stability is what we want to see.”

The contrasting views foreshadow a clash between adherents to Trump’s big-spending populism and classic small-government conservatives. Republican lawmakers have to choose between embracing Trump’s expensive agenda — or pushing back and risking his wrath.

Hill GOP insiders on both sides of the Capitol told Politico the fiscal 2018 budget will easily be one of the toughest votes Congress takes this year. That’s especially true in the House, where the conference for years has rallied around budgets that balance in 10 years — the gold standard for whether a fiscal blueprint is “conservative enough.” Now, many Republicans worry they won’t get there because of Trump’s unorthodox views on spending.

“It was already going to be a herculean task in making the numbers work over a 10-year time frame; when you begin to add in transportation, walls, tax cuts, it becomes an impossible task,” said Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.). “We’re at the cusp of moving in the wrong direction. … It’s a problem.”

Meanwhile, some Republicans on the House Budget Committee are floating the idea of changing the standard of “success” for a budget. Budget vice chairman Todd Rokita (R-Ind.) has been speaking to members about ditching the 10-year-balance metric for one that focuses on a debt-to-GDP ratio. Supporters of the idea say it would paint a more accurate measure of the nation’s long-term fiscal situation anyway, as savings from entitlement reforms aren’t often realized until the second decade and beyond — not in the 10-year budget window.

“The challenge to balance is going to be more difficult than ever. That’s all I have to say,” Rokita said outside the House floor last week when asked about his proposed standard.

Spokesman William Allison said in a statement that Budget Chairwoman Diane Black (R-Tenn.) is “committed to working towards a balanced budget.”

The White House in the next two months will send Congress two major requests for money: a military spending bill that would take effect immediately upon passage, and a budget for next fiscal year. The latter will be a particularly tough lift because it traditionally includes a projection of government spending and debt over the next few decades.

Republicans are crossing their fingers that any requests for new spending will be offset with cuts. If not, the House Budget Committee will have to craft legislation to raise spending caps that have been in place for years. That could face stiff opposition from conservatives.

“We would have several people opposed to” lifting the caps, said Freedom Caucus Member Raúl Labrador (R-Idaho). “I am a fiscal conservative, and the biggest issue we’re facing in America right now is our debt. As Republicans, we better be consistent on this or we’re going to lose our base.”

Outside conservative groups would also revolt if Republicans did away with the spending limits. Tim Phillips, who leads the Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity, said “discretionary spending has grown far too rapidly. We have to put a hard cap on growth, and if Republicans are going to be true to their rhetoric, they will agree to a hard cap on spending.”

Trump also wants to slash taxes, which could reduce the amount of annual cash flowing to the Treasury. Republicans are concerned because they have few specifics on what kind of tax plan Trump wants and some administration officials have floated the idea of not paying for tax reductions. House Speaker Paul Ryan’s tax plan would be “revenue-neutral,” or not add to the deficit, but no one knows for sure what the final deal negotiated by Trump and congressional Republicans will look like.

Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, a lobbyist who worked closely with Trump’s transition team, said many of his corporate clients are lining up to oppose one of the biggest “pay-fors” put forward by Ryan: a new tax on imports, which the speaker estimates would generate $1 trillion.

“The border adjustment tax is giving my clients serious heartburn. A lot of American companies, the poultry industry, the automobile industry, many others are worried about that,” Lott said.

Republicans expect their leaders to argue that any spending, whether through appropriations or tax cuts, would ultimately pay for themselves by growing the economy by record amounts. Still, they’re not sure if that will get them to a balanced budget.

Rep. Charlie Dent: “I certainly hope that we don’t try to reconcile these increase expenditures on the backs of the discretionary programs." | AP Photo

It’s possible some Republicans will seek to offset new spending with cuts to discretionary spending programs like the National Endowment for the Arts or agriculture programs — something that worries many House Appropriations members like Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) .

“I certainly hope that we don’t try to reconcile these increase expenditures on the backs of the discretionary programs,” he said.

Appropriators generally believe there is not enough fat to cut from discretionary programs to finance the level of new spending Trump is talking about. Most Republicans would rather turn to entitlement programs to find savings, but Trump has made clear he has no interest in going there.

Republicans are banking on outgoing Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.), a fiscal hard-liner tapped by Trump to lead the Office of Management and Budget, to sell the president on the merits of entitlement reform.

“I do know Mick Mulvaney knows the reality behind the numbers,” Cole said. “But Mick doesn’t get to make the final call, that’s the president. … It’s going to be fascinating.”

