h/t Red Chalk

1) Ballot access

Trump doesn’t need to get on the ballot in all 50 states.

He needs ~28: The 24 that Romney won, plus FL, OH, MI, and NJ, PA and/or VA.

Ballot requirements differ from state-to-state, but meeting them is pretty uniformly impossible at this late stage.

In FL, for example, Trump would need 100,000 signatures by July 15. In TX, 80,000 by May 9.

And it would cost about a million bucks:

The cost of getting a candidate’s name on ballots in all 50 states and the District of Columbia without the backing of a major party would likely reach into the low seven-digits…$3 million for the process using paid consultants and signature-gatherers.

In light of the ongoing delegate fiasco, it is clear Trump has neither the willingness to spend the money– or the organizational capacity– to pull it off.

2) Sore Loser Laws

Many states preclude “sore losers” from running as independents in the general election.

In OH, for ex:

Trump filed…to run as a Republican presidential candidate in Ohio, meaning that he now cannot run as an independent in the state next year, according to Secretary of State Jon Husted’s office. … “Since Donald Trump has filed a declaration of candidacy with our office as a Republican, has filed with Federal Election Commission as a Republican candidate and voluntarily took part in the Republican presidential debates, the first of which was held in Ohio, there is no way for Mr. Trump to disaffiliate from the Republican Party ‘in good faith’ during this election cycle.”

In TN:

No, according to Tennessee Secretary of State Tre Hargett…“If a candidate doesn’t win the primary, they cannot appear on the ballot during the general election for another party or as an independent.”

3) The GOP doesn’t care if he runs 3rd party

A robust 3rd party candidacy hands the election to Hillary– that’s Trump’s leverage.

Just one problem: The GOP est. doesn’t care.

They figure to lose with or without Trump– so why not just pull off the band-aid?

Besides, a Hillary victory kills 3 birds with 1 stone…

It is exceedingly rare for parties to hold the WH for 4 consecutive terms (2, 2-term presidencies): Reagan’s popularity could only get H.W. elected once, Clinton’s electoral success didn’t translate to Gore. GOP party elders are salivating at Ryan-Rubio vs. a 72-year-old Hillary Clinton in 2020. A Hillary presidency almost certainly takes gay marriage and amnesty off the table– among the consultancy class’s top priorities. GOP operatives are more than happy to let Hillary do it, so they don’t have to. Ted Cruz, and many of the policies he shares with Trump, will have been thoroughly repudiated. In 2020, Mike Murphy and Karl Rove can credibly claim that a conservative, anti-amnesty candidate cannot hold the party together.

In short, the GOP doesn’t believe Trump will (or can) run 3rd party.

And, even if he did, they don’t care.