P.E.I. is sending four Liberals to Ottawa following Monday's federal election, as it has in eight of the last 10 elections, but the party did not show its typical strength this time.

The Liberal's fortress on P.E.I. was established in 1988 when the Liberals swept all the seats, ending 31 years of Tory federal strength on the Island.

The Liberal share of the P.E.I. vote fell significantly in 2019, from 58 per cent in 2015 to 44 per cent.

"Not a single one of the four got over the 50 per cent mark, and that's very, very unusual," said UPEI political scientist Don Desserud.

"Something is happening here."

Given the power of the Liberal wave in Atlantic Canada in 2015, a repeat of that dominance was unlikely. But going back further shows some weakness as well.

Support was up only three percentage points from when the Liberals gave up a seat to the Conservatives in 2011, and down a whopping 10 per cent from when the federal Liberals last led a minority government, in 2004.

Who is benefiting?

If the Liberals are losing supporters, where are they going?

P.E.I. has traditionally been a two-horse race between Liberals and Conservatives. No other party has ever held a federal seat.

The Tories recovered Monday from a disastrous 2015 campaign, earning 27 per cent of votes compared to just 19 per cent in the previous election. The party was perilously close to giving up second position to the NDP, which won 16 per cent of the vote in 2015.

But in terms of gains, the clear winner on the night was the Green Party, surging to 21 per cent of the popular vote. Every other party is down in voter support from the last Liberal minority. The Green share of the vote was five times what is was in 2004.

The 3rd party problem

Desserud cautions it is difficult to read much into one election.

"Are these people who are disaffected Liberals or disaffected NDP who are temporarily looking at the Greens, or is this a movement that is going to consolidate into something that's a strong base?" he said.

"That's always been the problem with third parties in this country. They get a certain amount of support, and people start getting enthusiastic about them, but then it collapses in a subsequent election."

The Greens showed a lot of strength in Atlantic Canada, winning a seat in Fredericton. But they still won only three seats nationally, with 6.5 per cent of the vote.

The Green Party faces serious questions nationally, said Desserud, and that could affect the future of the party on the Island.

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