Awards season chatter is upon us, and with it comes several cliched storylines that always crop up year to year. Maybe the most prominent, recycled narrative is the one about the actor who is “due.” The one who’s been the bridesmaid so many times but THIS IS THEIR YEAR. Sometimes, it really is that actor’s year; other times though, the narrative of being “due” seems to gain so much momentum that it pushes a decent-to-good performance over the finish line. Last year, as I’m sure you know, Leonardo DiCaprio was the “due” actor (*screams internally*) and he did end up finally winning an Oscar, for his performance in The Revenant. This year, we turn our eyes to another awards season mainstay who’s perpetually gone home empty-handed nonetheless, Amy Adams. And we have to ask: is how things panned out for Leo an indication of where this year’s season is headed?

No awards season is complete without Amy Adams, and this year she’s getting Oscar buzz for her performances in two movies, Arrival and Nocturnal Animals. Both of those performances are said to be unique and stellar, so it seems likely that Adams will earn at least one Oscar nomination this year. It’ll be her sixth, after nominations for Best Supporting Actress in Junebug (2005), Doubt (2008), The Fighter (2010), and The Master (2012), and her first Best Actress nomination in 2014 for American Hustle.

Like Leonardo DiCaprio before her, Adams has long been considered the bridesmaid and never the bride. First nominated for Best Supporting Actor for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape? in 1994, DiCaprio was instantly heralded as the next great actor. It wasn’t until The Aviator in 2005 that he would see his next nomination though. Following that with nominations for Blood Diamond in 2007 and The Wolf of Wall Street in 2014, DiCaprio kept coming close to the statue but never close enough. He was the butt of every awards season joke. Even years when he wasn’t nominated, DiCaprio’s legacy of losing found itself the topic of conversation. The memes, GIFs and tweets ultimately took away from his performances, and the narrative of DiCaprio The Loser became more interesting than the work. With each loss, each performance became more extreme and transformative than the one before, until he finally won by shoving himself inside a horse in The Revenant.

Adams hasn’t exactly gone to the lengths Leo did, but her record looks the same nonetheless. It also resembles the records of Kate Winslet, Julianne Moore, and Al Pacino, all actors who won Oscars deep into impressive but apparently not award-worthy careers. And like those predecessors, Adams just feels destined this year. She continues to prove she has the range, and her work this year once again shows her versatility and willingness to work with interesting directors. She continues to unpeel layers, and show just how much she has to offer at this stage in her career.

In Arrival, Adams works with acclaimed director Denis Villeneuve (Sicario, Prisoners) and dives head first into sci-fi playing a linguist who must help the planet against an alien invasion. It’s a beautiful, emotional film and Adams gives a quiet, subdued and layered performance that is a career best. Adams’ nuanced performance is unlike anything we’ve seen from her previously; Arrival is a quiet sci-fi film and Adams’, who plays Dr. Louise Banks, is the emotional core of the film and she is heart-wrenching.

And on a completely opposite note, in Tom Ford’s highly anticipated follow up to A Single Man, Nocturnal Animals, Adams plays an art-gallery owner who receives the manuscript for her ex-husband’s disturbing new book. Adams shines in the film and it’s a darker, twisted turn for her and, much like her performance in Arrival, this is Adams’ unlike we’ve seen her before.

Both performances are career bests for the actress and take unexpected turns. In comparison to her peers’ performances this year, Adams stands out in offering two quieter, less actor-y performances that tend to get overlooked because of their subtlety and both deserve recognition. The competition this year is tough—there’s Emma Stone in La La Land, Natalie Portman in Jackie, and Viola Davis in Fences. But, regardless of if you think it’s valid or not, Adams may find herself prevailing over the pack, because she’s this year’s Leonardo DiCaprio.