By Jamie Samuelsen

Special to Detroit Free Press

Jamie Samuelsen, co-host of the "Jamie and Wojo" show at 6 p.m. weekdays on WXYT-FM (97.1), blogs for freep.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Detroit Free Press nor its writers. You can reach him at jamsam22@gmail.com, follow him on Twitter @jamiesamuelsen and read more of his opinions at freep.com/jamie.

The longer this thing stretches out, do you think the chances of Calvin Johnson returning to the Lions increase or decrease?

We keep moving the goal posts on Calvin Johnson.

When news of his potential retirement first became public in January, the consensus was, “Hey Calvin. Take some time. Don’t rush into anything.” Now, nearly two months later, it’s shifted to, “Um Calvin. You might want to let us know what you’re thinking here. It’s not like we don’t have a team to build and a future to plan for.”

At this point, only Johnson and his inner circle know what he’s thinking. Perhaps they’ve shared it with Rod Wood and Bob Quinn of the Lions, perhaps they haven’t. I know they haven’t shared it with me. So the longer it goes, the more I think one of two things is going on.

Theory 1: Johnson is in fact having second thoughts. Time away from football has made him realize how much he’d miss football and (perhaps) how good the Lions could be if all of their offensive weapons return in 2016. The fact that Johnson played the entire 2015 season thinking that it was his last (according to reports) has pushed him to really take a long hard look at himself, his family, his future and what’s best for all parties involved.

Theory 2: Johnson wants to play, but he’s not totally convinced that he wants to return to the Lions, at least not at a reduced rate. Johnson stands to count $24.008 million under the 2016 cap and while the Lions currently are about $34 million under the new revised cap, they still wouldn’t mind getting a little more relief. Especially because Johnson isn’t playing at that level anymore as he prepares to start his 10th NFL season at the age of 30. Johnson has always portrayed himself as a team first, selfless player. That said, we all want to get paid. And the fact that Deion Sanders and Michael Irvin were so outspoken during Super Bowl week that Johnson didn’t deserve a pay cut, perhaps those thoughts have entered the mind of Johnson and his agent, Bus Cook.

There is a third, far more cynical view, held by some Lions fans. The deadline to renew season tickets is Feb. 24. The theory goes that the Lions already know that Johnson is leaving but they’ve convinced him to hold off on his announcement until they’ve gotten as many deposits back as possible. Johnson is easily the most popular player on the roster and his retirement would undoubtedly affect some fan’s decision to renew.

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For the record, I’m not buying that plan. Owner Martha Firestone Ford seems desperate to close the growing chasm between the fans and the team. She knows how angry and frustrated the fan base is and would never allow such a scam to take place on her watch. Again, that’s my theory, not fact. But she seemed awfully clear last fall that she knows what the fans have gone through and vowed to change it. Pulling a ruse like that might be the breaking point for good for the fans.

If we discount Theory 3 and then just focus on the first two, it basically comes down to a belief that Johnson is a man of his word and will do what’s best for him and his team or that Johnson is a frustrated Lion who thinks he doesn’t deserve a pay cut and will finagle the system to get out of town. Cook was the agent for Brett Favre, so he has some history with retiring athletes and finding a rather soft landing spot.

Look, this is sports, so nothing greedy or duplicitous should ever surprise any of us. That said, I just don’t see it from Johnson.

If you go with that theory, then Johnson would be going back on conversations that he had not only with teammates, but with family members as well. The initial report of his possible retirement included the story that Johnson told head coach Jim Caldwell that he was retiring and only delayed it out of deference to Caldwell who asked him to take some time to consider all of his options. Is it possible that Johnson would bolt on Caldwell, a man he respects so much after Caldwell was the one that delayed his retirement in the first place?

Anything is possible. That said, Johnson is one of the most highly regarded, highly respected athletes I’ve ever covered. There seem to be rumors and dark sides to every athlete, not Johnson. From management to PR to teammates to media to fans, everyone has nothing but good things to say about Calvin Johnson. It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where he tells Caldwell and Matthew Stafford that he’s retiring, then a few months later finds a way to skip town and play for another team.

Being a Lions fan is a tough business and I can’t tell you that you’re wrong when you expect the worst result with this team in almost everything that happens. But I also believe that Johnson is one of the good ones. The longer this thing drags out, the most likely scenario is that Johnson is eventually going to decide to return.