Rand Paul caucus plan 'no slam dunk'

FRANKFORT, Ky. – The Republican Party of Kentucky is putting finishing touches on a proposal that would preserve Rand Paul's fallback plan to win re-election to the U.S. Senate next year if his campaign for president falters.

But some prominent Republicans in the state say that while they harbor no malice toward Paul, the party is about to take a costly and extraordinary step that might confuse voters and even cost Republicans his Senate seat.

At Paul's request, the party is developing a plan to replace Kentucky's traditional May presidential primary election with a caucus to be held in early March.

Kentucky law mandates that no one can run for two offices on the same ballot, so Paul must decide by a Jan. 26 filing deadline whether to file for U.S. Senate or president.

But under the caucus scenario, he would need only to file for re-election to the Senate and could seek support — and presumably win the lion's share of Kentucky delegates — in a presidential caucus.

After Kentucky's senior U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell gave his blessing to the caucus approach in late February, Kentucky Republican Party Chairman Steve Robertson created a special committee to develop a plan for how the process would work. The state party's central committee is scheduled to vote on that plan Aug. 22.

"It's on track … I think there's a great likelihood it will be approved," said Jack Richardson, of Louisville, a member of the state party's executive committee and part of the committee writing up the plan.

But Jim Skaggs, an executive committee member from Bowling Green, said, "I think it's slightly favored to pass, but it is no slam dunk. … The actual details of the plan are going to be very important."

Bob Heleringer, a former state representative from Louisville who writes a column for The Courier-Journal, said, "The party was very skeptical of this at first, privately they're still skeptical, though they're supposed to toe the line now."

Paul declined to respond to questions emailed to his presidential campaign about the issue.

Richardson characterizes Paul as simply "the catalyst" for an overdue move to give Kentucky Republicans a voice in selecting the party's presidential nominee. "Moving our selection process up from May to March — two and a half months earlier — really puts a lot of attention and focus on Kentucky and makes Republican voters relevant once again," Richardson said.

Bill Stone, a Louisville businessman and former chairman of the Jefferson County Republican Party, gives a simpler reason: "I'm for any facility we can use that gives Rand Paul the opportunity to defend his Senate seat while he's running for president."

But while a primary election is paid for by state government, the costs of caucuses would be financed by the party. Robertson declined to give an estimate of the costs, though he said they would be defrayed a bit by filing fees charged to presidential campaigns.

But Skaggs estimates the cost at between $500,000 and $1.2 million. "I don't want it to start sucking money out of some of the down ticket races we're working on," Skaggs said.

Paul has agreed to raise sufficient funds to finance the caucuses "to make sure the party does not suffer financially," Robertson said.

But Heleringer said that creates a different problem. "I think it's horrible if he (Paul) will be paying for a process in which he's going to be a candidate."

Heleringer said, "I love Rand Paul's message of more inclusion. … I have tremendous respect for him, but the party doesn't owe him — or anybody — so much allegiance to set aside a primary system we've had for 30, 40 or 50 years."

Republican State Sen. Chris Girdler, of Somerset, said he fears the plan will confuse voters. "I think it will make it tougher and more difficult to get people out to cast their support for a particular candidate."

John David Dyche, an attorney and conservative columnist for Fox News' WDRB in Louisville, emphasized in a recent column a major problem Republicans will face if Paul wins the presidential nomination: Under Kentucky law, Paul could no longer remain on the November 2016 ballot as a Senate candidate.

And unless the party could convince a court to win a ruling allowing party leaders to select a replacement, the Republican Party would end up with no candidate on the ballot for U.S. Senate.

Because of that possibility, and because Dyche said Paul is to the left of most Kentucky Republicans on some issues such as national security, he said it would help the party if Paul faced a challenge in the primary for U.S. Senate next year.

Dyche said this week, however, he's gotten no takers.

And planning for the caucus goes on. The head of the special committee, Scott Lasley, a political science professor and chairman of the Warren County Republican Party, said the plan will likely schedule the caucus for a Saturday or a Tuesday in early March.

Lasley said delegates will be allocated proportional to the vote received by the candidate — it will not be winner take all.

Voting likely will be by "a secure paper ballot," he said.

Populous counties will have multiple caucus locations, most counties will have one location, but tiny counties might have to share a location with a neighboring county. Types of venues for the caucuses have not been determined, but private homes will not be among the settings, he said.

Lasley said provisions are being developed to accommodate absentee votes, including ballots from active duty military members.

Reporter Tom Loftus can be reached at (502) 875-5136. Follow him on Twitter at @TomLoftus_CJ.