James Bruggers

@jbruggers

The federal government's energy data agency forecasts sharp growth for renewables such as solar and wind even without President Barack Obama's Clean Power Plan, which is held up in the courts by a lawsuit from Indiana, Kentucky and other states.

But the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan, which places curbs on climate pollution from power plants, would accelerate the energy transition, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Agency. ​

The agency's Annual Energy Outlook shows natural gas to be a big winner, with or without the Clean Power Plan. But with the planned curbs on burning greenhouse gases, cleaner natural gas-fired electricity generation will exceed coal-fired electricity generation by 2022, while generation from renewables - driven by wind and solar - will overtake coal-fired generation by 2029, the agency has calculated.

EIA reports that even without the Clean Power Plan, there will be significant growth in renewables throughout the country, "due in large part to Congress' recent extension of favorable tax treatment for renewable energy sources.

For example, EIA finds that in a status quo situation, renewable generation will increase at an annual average rate of 3.9 percent while natural gas generation will grow at 0.6 percent per year. But with the Clean Power Plan, renewables will grow at 4.7 percent and natural-gas fired generation will grow at 1.6 percent annually in the coming years.

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Coal burning for electricity remains relatively flat at current rates if the Clean Power Plan is never put in place, EIA said. With the Clean Power Plan, coal burning slides about as fast as natural gas rises, the agency estimates.

The Clean Power Plan seeks a nationwide 32 percent reduction in carbon emissions from power plants by 2030. Each state has its own targets.

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The coal industry and its political supporters in Indiana and Kentucky in February welcomed a big Supreme Court ruling that put on hold Obama's first limits on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, saying it was a threat to each state's economy. Environmental and some business leaders have supported the president's climate agenda as a way to blunt disastrous impacts from global warming and to power a new economy.

Reach reporter James Bruggers at (502) 582-4645 and at jbruggers@courier-journal.com.