There’s a natural urge for Buffalo Bills fans to hope and believe that this is the year in which the team will finally make the playoffs, no matter what the circumstances are. The drought enters its eighteenth season, and people are understandably hoping that the end is in sight; that the new regime will be the group to get it done.

Due to a flurry of unfortunate factors combining together, it seems likely that Buffalo will not take a step forward in 2017. It looks more like this will be a down year, a final brutal step in the regression from the 9-7 height in 2014 that has trickled down since then. Rookie coach Sean McDermott has adopted the “trust the process” mantra, and it feels appropriate for what might happen in the upcoming year.

A few disclaimers before this begins: nobody wishes to see the Bills fail. The last thing on earth that anyone wants to see is a 4-12 season that results in hand-wringing over the new coaching staff. In addition to this, it’s absolutely undeniable that Buffalo has talent all over the place; LeSean McCoy is still one of the best backs in the league, Sammy Watkins is an incredible talent, and the defensive line is loaded with standouts. It’s entirely plausible that the Bills could beat the odds and shock us all in 2017.

However, these are the four reasons that one should be pessimistic about the 2017 season.