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So here it is. I think the

Calgary Flames should trade for Jeff Petry. What’s that I hear you say?

“Here we go, another Oilers

fan trying to pawn off dysfunctional players on the Flames”

No, not at all. In fact,

quite the opposite.

Let’s start by taking a look

at the player and see if we can gauge where he fits on the Oilers and then try

to translate that to comparable players around the league, adjusting for team

differences. Once we’ve done that we can then see if he would translate as a

net gain for the Flames were he to be added.



Jeff Petry is a 6’3”, 198lbs

27 year-old right handed defenseman who plays the second-toughest minutes with

the worst zone starts on the Oilers’ defence corps.



The above shows the ZS and

Corsi relative to the quality of teammates. Petry and Andrew Ference are

getting some of the toughest starts aside from Mark Fayne, and Petry is helping

to produce shots on net in spite of it and he’s doing it while playing with the

Oilers’ lesser lights.



This graph shows the same ZS

but the Corsi relative is to the quality of competition this time. So again,

Petry and Ference figure in facing the tough competition with unfavourable zone

starts. The difference between the two is that Petry contributes to positive

shot differentials, which means scoring chances.

(both Vollman graphs courtesy

of hockeyabstract.com)

His ZS are in line with Dan

Girardi, 23rd toughest in the NHL, his Corsi relative to Quality of

Competition has him in line with Ryan Ellis and Brendan Dillon but ahead of

Kevin Bieksa, Brent Seabrook, Kris Russell and even Erik Karlsson.

He takes the same number of

penalties per game as Ryan Suter, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Edler, Kris Letang

and Anton Stralman, to name a few.

(data courtesy of

behindthenet.com)

To look at it another way,

here is a graph of the Oilers’ defense. Bigger the bubble, the more the ice

time. The bluer, the better. Up means tougher competition, down easier. Left

means more defensive zone starts, right is offensive zone starts. As defensemen

go, a big blue bubble in the upper left quadrant is a thing of beauty.The Oilers don’t have one but Jeff Petry is as close as they come.

Now this graph shows the

Flames’ current defense corps and my own aesthetically inspired addition as to

where Petry might best fit.



(graphs courtesy of waronice.com)



Jeff Petry is a consistent,

reliable defenseman who can anchor a 2nd pairing defense in a

shut-down role while still contributing to offensive chances be they via the

rush or a strong first pass out of the zone to a forward. He strips the puck

off an opponents’ stick with his reach, skating and positioning. He supports

the play well and often finds the forward with a pass to exit the zone

efficiently. This season he is averaging around 18 minutes a night in precisely

that role.

Petry paired with Wideman or

Russell could be a very effective 2nd pairing that would give some

breathing room to Giordano and Brodie and allow the remaining of either Wideman

or Russell to face even easier competition thus improving their chances for

success.

“So if he’s all that then why

are the Oilers trading him?”

If I could think of a

reasonable justification I’d probably sleep better at night. The truth? I don’t

know, but they never seem to like smart, smooth-skating college defenders who

use their brains instead of their brawn. This despite a history with players

like Randy Gregg and Charlie Huddy. The problem with Jeff Petry isn’t Jeff

Petry, it’s what the management group of the Edmonton Oilers perceives him not

to be in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. Fellow Oilers fan and blogger, Woodguy had a recent article about the Oilers’ defensive lineup going into next season. The short version? Auston Mathews is going to look great playing with Jack Eichel.

“Well then what are you

thinking the Flames should give for him? If he’s so great, they’re not paying

much because Treliving says their sticking to their rebuild schedule. And so

help me, if you say Sam Bennett I will hunt you down…!”

No. Not Sam Bennett. The good

thing about this proposal is that the Flames could trade to acquire Petry and

remain on their rebuilding schedule with minimal interruption.



The current scuttlebutt about

the NHL trade landscape is that Detroit and Anaheim are pursuing Tyler Myers, a

big RHD signed at a $5 million cap hit for three more years. (Editor’s Note: Written before the Winnipeg/Buffalo trade broke this morning.)



Buffalo wants a 1st

round pick but may settle for a 2nd with a good prospect in tow. The

Ducks have a glut of young forwards they could send over with a pick and the Red

Wings are throwing out names like Xavier Ouellet, Ryan Sproul and Teemu Pulkinnen,

all solid prospects.



If we imagine one of those

two teams landing Myers then it would stand to reason that Jeff Petry is target

number two, and with his pending free agency the price would come down probably

somewhere in the vicinity of a 2nd round pick or a 3rd

and a good prospect.

I’m not taking into account

the soft market for UFAs from last year, but am instead assuming that the

market rebounds somewhat closer to, but not at, the high-tide mark that was the

2013 trade deadline where players like Douglas Murray were moved for two 2nd

round picks. Let’s use a higher price tag to test the waters and if he still

seems attractive as an option, then you bid under and negotiate up to your

ceiling.

So now let’s imagine the

Flames were to find themselves interested in Jeff Petry and bidding against the

Red Wings because Buffalo sent Myers to the Ducks to keep him out of conference.



How then does Petry compare

with the remainder of the pending UFA defense class?

The other notable unrestricted free agents this spring are Zbynek Michalek, Francois Beauchemin,

Johnny Oduya, Andrei Meszaros, Mark Methot, Christian Ehrhoff, Paul Martin,

John Boychuk, and Mike Green. Obviously Beauchemin, Oduya, Ehrhoff, Boychuk and

Green aren’t likely to be traded as those teams are all in or pushing for a

playoff spot.

In the above graph, Petry

comes out as a better defensive option who can still push the pace of play but

does not handle quite as severe competition as the better-known players, many

of whom are unlikely to be available at the deadline. The 0.5 QualComp number

is a solid, 2nd pairing range and the 43-ish% ZS coupled with the

ice time and shot metrics show that he is about as dependable a secondary

defensive option as one could hope for.

Ken Holland has recently said

that he isn’t going to push for rentals with 1st round picks any

longer, so the offer is going to probably start at a 3rd round pick

and a prospect. The Flames could counter with a 2nd and a prospect

and probably win out.

“What kind of prospect? I

warned you about Bennett!”

Let’s say Reinhart for the

sake of argument. His ceiling is probably as a 4th line center, 3rd

line if everything breaks right for him. Would a 2nd round pick that

has a 17% chance to become an NHL player and a potential 4th line

center currently playing in the AHL sound like a good deal for a 2nd

pairing defenseman?

“For six weeks? No deal!”

Not quite. What you get in

the deal isn’t just six weeks of a 2nd pairing defenseman. You also

get several months of exclusive negotiations with that player, at this point

one that is likely to be one of the more interesting free-agents this summer.

A lot would depend on the

Flames re-signing Petry. They could do it, I believe. They have Wideman at a

cap hit of $5 million, Giordano at $4 and likely to go up to the $6 million

range or thereabouts. Brodie’s new $4.65 cap hit kicks in next season. Russell

is $2.6 million and Engelland and Smid both take up $6.6 million together.

Potter and Diaz come off the books this summer.The Flames would essentially be hitting the free-agent market during the current season, reaping the benefits now and perhaps even paying less by avoiding the inflated July prices.

If you offered Petry five

years at $4 million, less than what Ehrhoff signed for this summer in

Pittsburgh, which would keep him under contract until he was 32, I think he’d

take it. He can’t expect more than $5 million on the open market and Calgary is

a team that I think could offer some incentives, with their recent record,

strong defense corps, and proximity to his former team that eschewed his

services. Petry is an intelligent, educated, but naturally conservative

personality. I think he’d look at a good cap number married to term in addition

to playing in relatively familiar geographical surroundings as positives.

Now how does a 2nd

and a prospect sound?

“Better, but it’ll take

awhile to wash the Oilers stink off. I’m still not happy we took Smid”

Granted, but keep in mind, Petry

made Smid look like a desirable asset to acquire.

Look at it this way, remember

how good it felt to rub Curtis Glencross in the Oilers’ faces?

“Heh, that was a lot of fun”

Exactly.



The Flames are playoff bound

this season (or at least it looks pretty much that way today). So this deal is

only one small part about today. Mostly it is about what next season’s

defensive roster would look like.



Giordano – Brodie

Petry – Wideman

Russell – Engelland

Smid



Swap numbers 6 and 7 to suit,

but that pushes Russell down to third pairing and limits Engelland and Smid in

TOI and quality of competition.

The Oilers are about to make

a terrible mistake. The Flames could capitalize at a reasonable initial cost

and a significantly reduced long-term impact.

It makes sense.





