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If he does make a run for the job, General Natynczyk will face competition from Denmark’s chief of defence, Knud Bartels, in the secret vote by the top soldiers from NATO’s 28 members on Sept. 17. General Bartels has already been endorsed by his own government, but some NATO members have expressed their unease at both the Secretary General and Chair of the Military Committee coming from the same country.

There may be other entrants, but the Chairman has only ever come from 13 nations. The three-year position is currently held by an Italian admiral, Giampaolo Di Paola. A U.S. general traditionally holds the role of Supreme Allied Commander Europe, who heads military operations, but an American has never been Secretary General and only on two occasions has the Chairman of the Military Committee come from the U.S.

“The main thing is that the alliance has to have a credible officer from a credible country,” said Douglas Bland, a fellow at the Defence Management Studies program at Queen’s University. “There are 28 nations but it narrows down pretty fast.”

A Canadian, General Raymond Henault, held the post as recently as 2008, but there is precedent for one country holding the chairmanship twice in a 10-year period. Two German generals acted in the role in the decade 1996-2005.

Alain Pellerin, a retired colonel who is executive director of the Conference of Defence Associations, said Canada has credibility at NATO because of its missions in Afghanistan and Libya. “That puts us in a front seat at NATO,” he said. “Natynczyk is very popular amongst his colleagues and Canada has been very supportive of NATO missions, so that should help his case.”