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Third prediction: Predicated on my expectation of a modest Liberal resurgence, I wrote a year ago that “leadership machinations will begin in earnest within the Conservative and New Democrat camps.”

Result: So-so. B-minus, anyone? Harper, of course, is now haunting his local Chapters bookstore, taking selfies in Las Vegas and rediscovering the blessed non-pressure of being an ordinary Member of Parliament. The Conservatives are on the leadership hunt, but on an extended two-year timeline, with interim leader Rona Ambrose minding the store till then. NDP leader Thomas Mulcair faces a leadership review at his party’s convention in April, the outcome of which is uncertain.

Now, on to 2016. Here goes.

1. Mulcair will remain NDP boss. The Liberal custom, established by inglorious precedent, is to drag each losing leader out behind the barn and send him to the afterlife with a curt thank-you. New Democrats have a tradition of sticking with leaders through several election cycles. They are also, to state the obvious, accustomed to not winning. Mulcair is at his best in the House of Commons. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to shine as the Trudeau Liberals lose their baby teeth.

2. Trudeau and his cabinet will reverse course on a couple of major policy files early in 2016. The first will be their pledge to withdraw Canadian CF-18 fighters from the battle against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The second will be their apparent determination to reform Canada’s electoral system without a referendum. In the first case the flip-flop will be attributed to changing circumstances on the ground; in the second case, to political necessity. In both cases, they will emerge politically better off as a result, despite sustaining short-term damage due to the broken promises.

3. Speaking of which: The federal deficit in the first Trudeau-era budget, expected in February, will be just under $20 billion — roughly twice what was pledged in the recent campaign.

4. Stephen Harper will make several public appearances in which he reveals both a human side and a self-deprecating sense of humour, causing Conservatives to shake their heads and wonder (again) at what might have been.

5. Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination and Hillary Clinton the U.S. Presidency. But it will be a very near-run thing.