ASHEVILLE – The latest projected path for Hurricane Florence has the storm sparing no part of North Carolina as it makes an east-west track from the coast to the mountains.

The National Hurricane Center's 11 p.m. projection says Florence's center will be around the state line near Flat Rock at 8 p.m. Sunday and headed west.

It would be only a tropical depression at that point, meaning winds would be no greater than 39 mph, but it would carry lots of rain.

But storm paths are harder to predict after they hit land, and projections of Florence's track over land have varied widely as the storm churns through the Atlantic Ocean toward North Carolina.

Just earlier Tuesday, the path veered north into Madison County.

Hurricane Florence: What to expect in WNC

Western North Carolina will almost certainly see heavy rain from Florence, the National Weather Service says, but there is a lot of uncertainty about whether the region should expect major flooding or just a soggy weekend.

"There's potential for many inches of rain. It's hard to nail down at this point how much," said Doug Outlaw, a NWS meteorologist based in Greer, South Carolina.

Scott Krentz, also a meteorologist at the Greer office, said Tuesday afternoon there is a "low to medium" chance that the region would get 8 to 10 inches of rain -- more than enough to cause damaging floods.

A weather service rainfall projection issued Tuesday called for 2 to 4 inches of rain over the next week for WNC counties roughly from Waynesville east.

The state's westernmost five or six counties should see 1 to 2 inches, the projection said.

The official NWS forecast for Asheville, for instance, still showed only a 50 percent chance of rain Saturday and again Sunday. Krentz said that's because there are still lots of unknowns about where Florence will go.

More on Florence:Here's how to track Hurricane Florence as it barrels toward the Carolinas

Private forecasts show higher rainfall totals from Hurricane Florence

Some private forecasts show higher rainfall totals, and Outlaw says the truth is that no one can say for sure this far out in time.

A forecast the NWS office in Greer issued early Tuesday put it this way: "Some impact from this system in our area will be possible late in the week, perhaps from late Thursday through the weekend, but uncertainty remains too high to be specific about the exact impacts or precise timing."

Private forecasters were in disagreement as to what WNC might expect.

AccuWeather said Tuesday afternoon there is a potential of catastrophic flooding in most of the region and major flooding on the western and southern edges of WNC.

But The Weather Channel said most of the region should expect somewhere between light and moderate amounts of rain from Florence.

At Buncombe County Emergency Services, "We've got our umbrellas halfway up," said director Jerry VeHaun.

He said forecasters on a Tuesday afternoon conference call said a best case scenario for the Asheville area would be 1 to 3 inches of rain and a worst case scenario would be 4 to 8 inches.

"That's about all they could tell us at this point. They said there's still a lot of uncertainty," VeHaun said.

The lower end of the range would mean WNC residents might end up watching a lot of television or doing other indoor activities this weekend. The higher end might see some spending time in emergency shelters.

"If it's more than 4 inches, we're going to have some flooding," VeHaun said.

Many local first responders would ordinarily be headed to the coast to help out with hurricane recovery efforts there, VeHaun said.

This time, "We can't send them east because if it comes up here they might be needed here," he said.

Asheville city government had one spillway open at its North Fork Reservoir north of Black Mountain to free up space to store water if rains are heavy this weekend.

Officials are monitoring Florence's progress and workers were clearing storm drains, a city spokeswoman said.

It is especially difficult to predict a storm's path after it has made landfall and Florence is even more of a wild card because it is moving west-northwest, a very unusual track for hurricanes affecting North Carolina.

"This system is following a path that it's hard to compare to," Outlaw said. "You have to go all the way back to Hurricane Hazel in 1954 to find a similar hurricane that followed a path like this."

North Carolina evacuations: What to know if you leave because of Hurricane Florence

Tuesday afternoon, the NWS' projected path for Florence showed it making landfall just south of Jacksonville, North Carolina, Friday and moving toward the center of the state.

Somewhat ominously for WNC, the projection says Florence's track will bend a bit to the west after landfall, increasing the odds that it will have a major impact on WNC.

Staff writer John Boyle contributed to this report.