Whoever wins the leadership of the New Democratic Party — and Canada’s official opposition — next Saturday will face a formidable challenge. The new leader will immediately have to go head-to-head with a Conservative government that demonstrates every day its determination to steamroll its political opponents and remake the country according to its values. The NDP, for both its own sake and the sake of all voters who do not support the Conservative agenda, needs to choose someone up to that task.

Of all the impressive men and women vying to lead the party, one stands out as most likely to give the government a run for its money and position the NDP to take on the Conservatives in 2015. Thomas Mulcair has established himself as the candidate to beat, and for good reason. He has shown himself to be committed to progressive values and policies and, crucially for the NDP at its moment of maximum political opportunity, he has demonstrated that he knows how to win.

Mulcair has been elected three times to Quebec’s National Assembly, and three times to Parliament as the NDP’s breakthrough candidate in Quebec. He has by far the best chance of holding onto the party’s base there, and as good a chance as any of the others of making similar gains in the rest of the country.

That remains the fundamental electoral challenge for the NDP. Its surge in Quebec last May under Jack Layton was not matched outside that province. As historic as Layton’s showing was, the party is still looking for the leader and the policies that will persuade enough voters right across the country to trust it with the reins of government.

Mulcair has focused directly on this hard reality, to the point of upsetting party purists suspicious of such forthright talk about winning. In an unusally frank conversation with the Star’s editorial board last month, Mulcair said the NDP needs to move beyond “the 1950s boilerplate” language of social democracy. Tellingly, he shared an anecdote about being lectured by an NDP activist that “If we ever form a government it will be conclusive evidence that we sold out.”

Mulcair’s critics on the party’s left fear he will fall victim to what rival Brian Topp has labelled the “Blairite temptation” — the impulse to move sharply to the centre as Britain’s Labour party did under Tony Blair and abandon cherished principles along the way. In fact, there is nothing in what Mulcair has said or proposed as policy to substantiate that. But he has made it clear he would find new language and new approaches to make the NDP’s message more palatable to voters who have been unwilling to trust it with power. Like other candidates who met our editorial board, he pointed to Manitoba’s moderate NDP governments as a model for the federal party. That will reassure many.

There are certainly risks with Mulcair. His famous temper could get the better of him, and he has put too much emphasis on courting Quebec nationalists for our liking. In particular, his support for the NDP’s 50-per-cent-plus-one formula for Quebec separation tilts too far against standing up for a united country.

The NDP is fortunate in the quality of candidates who have run this marathon race. Topp emerged as Mulcair’s most trenchant critic on the left. Peggy Nash has enhanced her reputation as a strong and thoughtful voice for the party’s more traditional interests. And Nathan Cullen may be the NDP’s biggest find, reaching out to progressive voters regardless of party affiliation and channelling the politics of hope that Layton famously embodied.

Any one of them would make a credible leader, but the NDP has a choice to make. Is it content to be a movement of beautiful losers, worried that a serious bid for power might sully its principles? Or is it prepared to take a chance on actually challenging the Conservatives for office in 2015 and accepting the trade-offs that may come?

When he met with the Star, Mulcair asked: “Is it possible that after 50 years of hectoring and finger-wagging and telling people what’s wrong with their decisions that we’re terrified at the prospect of being the ones who actually take the decisions?” If the NDP decides that it wants, finally, to try to be the party that actually makes decisions at the national level, it would be best advised to go with Mulcair.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Read more about: