Opinion: Did CSU AD Joe Parker make right bet on football coach Mike Bobo?

CSU athletic director Joe Parker doesn't strike me as a country western music fan, but he doesn't strike me as a gambler either.

His Twitter account showed him at several country music concerts this summer.

As for his gaming habits, I didn't see his Twitter account show him at a casino but make no mistake, he pushed all in on CSU head football coach Mike Bobo when he extended Bobo's contract through 2022.

Bobo's critics have plenty of ammunition as to why Parker is chasing fool's gold. His record against rivals Colorado, Wyoming and Air Force and Mountain West perennial power Boise State is 2-10, including 0-3 each against CU and Boise State. In addition, he is 0-3 in bowl games against opponents who were all betting underdogs.

Doesn't sound like a good bet now. But Parker, who received his own extension last month, is playing the odds in extending Bobo.

And here's why ultimately Parker made a good bet.

Bobo has gone 7-6 overall and 5-3 in the Mountain West in each of his first three seasons, which has been disappointing to many. However, Bobo is a much safer bet to post nine- or 10-win seasons for the Rams than he is falling to eight-, nine- or 10-loss seasons, which CSU has experienced many times in its less-than-storied past. And when you are making payments on a $220 million stadium, you need those odds in your favor.

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His recruiting classes have ranked near the top of the Mountain West the past couple of years. His offense is the class of the Mountain West and looks to continue to be for the foreseeable future. And if he makes the right decisions in who he chooses to replace his defensive staff, the wins will follow.

Bobo fits CSU's culture. He's a solid family man who by all accounts holds his players accountable on and off the field, which creates a huge comfort level with Parker and President Tony Frank.

“It’s interesting, because obviously we get a chance to look a little bit closer than people outside the football building would, and we just feel really good about just the embedded leadership that he’s created within the team, the culture that he’s created within the program,'' Parker said before CSU's New Mexico Bowl loss. "We’ve had a lot of conversations with students and staff and just feel like now is a good time to talk about a renewal extension and taking it out a few more years.”

Many fans don't realize the value of continuity in the head coaching position. Constant turnover generally results in constant losing. Bobo has shown he can win at a moderate level and has shown enough glimpses that he can take the program to a higher level.

The big gamble by Parker is the buyout should Bobo get on a losing streak and need to be fired or if he leaves for another coaching job. That's where the extension weighs heavily in Bobo's favor.

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CSU would owe Bobo $8 million if it were to fire the coach without cause this year, $5.5 million in 2019, $3 million in 2020, $2 million in 2021 and his base salary in 2022.

Contrast that to what Bobo would owe the university if he were to leave for another job, which is $3.5 million in 2018, $3 million in 2019, $2 million in 2020, $1 million in 2021 and $0 in 2022.

Those numbers skew heavily in Bobo's favor.

When Jim McElwain left CSU for Florida following the 2014 season, his third at CSU, the head coach owed CSU a $7 million buyout for breaking his contract, or half of what Bobo would have to pay after his fourth season, under the extension. Former CSU athletic director Jack Graham negotiated McElwain's contract.

The new deal raises Bobo’s salary to $1.85 million this year, an increase of $150,000 from what he would have earned under his original contract, with annual increases of $100,000 annually. That makes him among the highest paid coaches in the Mountain West. Bobo has yet to earn that kind of money.

But extending Bobo's contract now with two years left on his initial contract provides a continuity that Parker felt was worth betting on.

“I don’t like anything less than two years under when we’re working under these existing agreements,” Parker said earlier. “And to what I’ve seen in my career and the experiences I’ve witnessed first-hand or just kind of watched others as they’ve worked to develop programs is patience is a valuable commodity.

“If you can just really wait for the recipe to reach its full flavor, then you’ve got something good to serve.”

There are two things holding the Rams back from elevating the program to the lofty levels Parker is betting on.

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The first is fixing a defense that at its current level makes nine- or 10-win seasons extremely difficult, if not nearly impossible, especially given the aggressive schedules Parker has upgraded to include more Power 5 conference opponents.

Bobo must get the defensive coaching decisions right and start landing more talent on defense. The most recent recruiting class gives hope to addressing that.

The second is more fluid. Bobo has improved the culture in some ways. The biggest challenge now is elevating the culture in a way that results in more wins, bigger wins. After all, college football is a results-oriented business. He must start challenging for MW titles, winning games against rivals and get the occasional win over a Power 5 team.

The culture must change from finding ways to lose big games to developing habits that win big games.

If Bobo can accomplish those two things, Parker's bet will turn to gold. If not, Parker will be remembered as a fool.

I'm betting on Parker on this one.

Follow sports editor Miles Blumhardt at twitter.com/MilesBlumhardt or contact him at milesblumhardt@coloradoan.com.