Mercedes' Singapore slump was a one-off

So hands up those of us who thought it wasn't? Anyone? Ah, erm, we can just make out one or two hands at the back over there, but those red shirts you're wearing do give the game away rather…

'Business as usual' sums things up, more or less, after qualifying. Mercedes are back where they usually are; the pursuers have made a little ground, but anyone who really believed that things would now be different will have to start thinking about 2016. But did anyone really think that?

"For us it was good because we're back to form. It's what we have worked for, so a bit of a happy moment," Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff said after his team had locked out the front row in qualifying.

Wolff didn't sound particularly relieved and no-one from the team has sounded greatly concerned over the last few days either. But they'll have to investigate their Singapore slump properly because their advantage over Ferrari, Red Bull and the rest isn't quite what it has been; and with that in mind, it's not the sort of thing they can afford to happen whenever F1 visits higher downforce tracks that require the softest tyres.

Ant Davidson compares the qualifying laps of Mercedes' Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton Ant Davidson compares the qualifying laps of Mercedes' Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton

With that one now out of the way, thoughts turn back to Hamilton v Rosberg this weekend and whether the pretender to the crown can translate pole into victory on Sunday. If he can, it might sow the seed of some semblance of a fightback in the minds of those of us who always like to see it go to the wire, although the way Hamilton has driven this year it seems highly doubtful.

Those who like to back an outsider can look to one of those equations that always rear up at this time of the year: Hamilton currently leads by 41 points, so six 1-2 Mercedes finishes headed by Rosberg would see him take the title by one point. Yet pondering that for more than two seconds - and how often he's actually finished ahead since the start of 2014 - makes you realise just how big an outsider Rosberg really is. He's going to need more retirements from Lewis, plain and simple.

MW

Daniil Kvyat suffered a big crash during qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix Daniil Kvyat suffered a big crash during qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix

Kvyat driving like a man under pressure

Having seemingly found his feet at Red Bull after a shaky start, Daniil Kvyat had begun to deliver some stellar performances which included a second-place finish in Hungary and a charge through the pack to fourth at Spa. A week ago in Singapore, the Russian was consistently challenging at the top of the timesheets throughout practice and qualifying and would likely have finished on the podium had Safety Cars immediately after his stops not cost him.

But at Suzuka Kvyat's driving has been error strewn, particularly during Saturday's dry running. It culminated in a huge off at the end of qualifying which caused substantial damage to his RB11.

It is almost as if the Russian suddenly feels under pressure - and perhaps he is. Max Verstappen is continuing to impress the Red Bull hierarchy with his performances and the team appear reluctant to give any assurance they will retain Kvyat in 2016, only stating that they have an 'option'. It's a reluctance that has got tongues wagging in the paddock. "Red Bull must be thinking about if they need Verstappen in the senior team depending on what engine they get," commented Martin Brundle ahead of qualifying.

The old-school nature of Suzuka could also have played a part in Kvyat's accident as he pushed the limits. Perhaps used to the vast tarmac run-off areas that now dominate F1's tracks and make it easy to take risks, Suzuka bites back with tyre barriers close to the track and grass and gravel bordering the tarmac.

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If only Perez could rewind to this week three years ago...

How different Sergio Perez's F1 career - and reputation - would be if only he hadn't joined McLaren for a single, deflating season in 2013. The paddock has known for a long time that McLaren's appointment of the then-inexperienced Sauber youngster was a mistake, an ill-judged miscalculation in the panic of Lewis Hamilton's unexpected defection to Mercedes. Indeed, many called it a mistake as soon as Perez was signed in September 2012. But what nobody recognised at the time is that it was a mistake by Perez too. If only he had waited, if only he had bided his time, if only he had realised how much he still had to learn. As Sky Sports F1's Anthony Davidson wistfully noted this weekend, "Sergio is a much, much better driver now than he was then."

Few up-and-coming drivers would, of course, have said no to McLaren in the circumstances Perez was dealt three years ago. But in the wake of his resurgence and recent unravelling of Nico Hulkenberg's gilded reputation, it is surely worth considering how Perez would be regarded if only he hadn't accepted McLaren's poisoned chalice.

The Mexican has out-qualified Hulkenberg in three of the last four races and remains nine points - and three places - ahead of the German in the Drivers' Championship. He's a very good driver. Perhaps not as good as those in the elite or even as good as the talents emerging from F1's next generation, but much better than his reputation generally indicates - and much, much better than the callow youth who mistakenly joined McLaren this very week three years ago.

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Grosjean will be badly missed by Team Enstone

There are four fascinating dimensions to Romain Grosjean's impending transfer to Haas. The first is the gamble the Frenchman is taking in rewinding his F1 career by four years to join a 'newbie' team; the second is how Grosjean is positioning himself to be in pole position for 2017 when a Kimi Raikkonen-sized vacancy is set to emerge at Ferrari; the third is the coup Haas are about to enjoy; and the fourth is the size of the blow to be endured by the Lotus team which is belatedly on the cusp of being bought by Renault.

Amid the ongoing uncertainty about the team's future, and their very real financial crisis in the here and now, the sporting repercussions of Grosjean's departure have been easily overlooked. A quick glance, however, reveals it to be a hefty blow to the team, depriving them of a driver who is one of the sport's best and most grossly under-rated.

Featuring just one defeat, the size of Grosjean's qualifying head-to-head victory over Pastor Maldonado this year is larger than any other driver in the field has been able to achieve over his team-mate. Positively and negatively in equal measures, there have been two protagonists at play this season in the transformation of Maldonado's reputation from fast but erratic to just erratic. Grosjean isn't merely a class above but in a different formula and Lotus would be third-last in the Constructors' Championship with two Maldonados in their cars - double the Venezuelan's current haul of 12 points and even Sauber, quietly enduring a torrid season, would be ahead of Lotus. He's been that bad and Grosjean, single-handedly delivering respectability in the shape of his 38-point bounty, has been that good.

How Team Enstone are likely to miss him next season. Sure to be deprived of their field-leading Mercedes engines in 2016 and near-certain to receive official confirmation on Tuesday that their star driver is on the move, Renault's first year back as an owner in the sport already looks ominously difficult.

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There's a possibility of tyres overheating in the race

We've put this one last in the queue because, well, y'know, it's about tyre pressures. But something Jenson Button said after his qualifying exit, when asked about his prospects for the race, held the attention. "I think it's going to be tough for everyone," he said. "The tyres, because the pressures are so high, will be overheating after one lap, so I think everyone will have trouble tomorrow and we'll be included in that."

Pirelli have been raising the minimum recommended pressures ever since the Spa blowouts and here the front pressure is 2PSI higher than last year (21.5) and the rears must be 1.5PSI higher (20.5).

So what effect, if any, might it have? Remember there was no dry running at all on Friday, so teams will be playing catch-up with their decisions about tyre wear and strategy. Might there be one or two surprises come race day?

MW

Don't miss Sky Sports F1's live coverage of the 2015 Japanese GP. Race-day coverage begins on Sunday at 4.30am with lights out at 6am. Watch the Japanese GP for £6.99 with NOW TV