Liberals to sweep 49 seat Assembly

TORONTO AUGUST 26th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 962 New Brunswick voters, close to one half of voters will vote Liberal in the provincial election of September 22 (46%), compared to 3-in-10 who will vote Progressive Conservative (31%). One seventh will support the provincial New Democrats (15%), fewer than a tenth the Green Party (7%) and very few will vote any other party (1%).

The Liberals are especially popular with younger voters (under 35 - 53%), while the Progressive Conservatives are at a deficit here (14%). Fewer women support the Progressive Conservatives than males (26% to 35%). The least wealthy and the least educated support the Liberals (less than $20K - 59%, some college or university or less - 50%), while those in higher income groups are especially likely to vote Progressive Conservative ($80K to $100K - 39%). Francophones are especially likely to vote Liberal (55%).

Of note, one third of past Progressive Conservative voters (32%) will vote Liberal this time, and as many as one half of past NDP supporters will as well (48%). Just one half of past Progressive Conservative voters will vote for their party again (53%), as will just more than a third of past NDP voters (37%).





Liberals to take almost every seat

If these results are projected up to seats in the newly reduced 49 seat Legislative Assembly, the Liberals would take 44, leaving just 5 for the Progressive Conservatives. The NDP would be shut out.





Gallant and Cardy tied in approval; Alward lags

One third approve of both Liberal leader Brian Gallant and NDP leader Dominic Cardy (34% each), but Cardy's net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is slightly more positive (+4) than Gallant's (0). One quarter approve of David Alward (27%), and his net is an extremely negative -33. Both Gallant and Alward poll at approximately the same level as their parties, but Cardy polls twice as well, which means he is unable to drag the party up to his own personal popularity level.





Jobs seen to be the biggest election issue

When asked to specify the most important issue, jobs are mentioned by more than half (52%), either creating the economic climate necessary for job creation (24%), just job creation (21%) or job training and career development (7%). The other key issue is cutting government waste (14%). Less important are ethics in government (8%) or tourism development (2%). One fifth sees something other than the listed items as most important (21%).Cutting government waste and ethics in government (16% and 10% respectively) are more important to Liberals than Progressive Conservatives (9% and 5%), respectively, while job creation and creating economic climate for job creation (31% and 35%, respectively) are more important to Progressive Conservatives than to Liberals (22% and 23%, respectively).





Two thirds agree government has outlived usefulness

When asked their agreement with a series of statements, most voters, two thirds, agree that the government has outlived its usefulness and needs to be replaced (65%), and fully one half agree "strongly" (50%). After this, one half agree that the Energy East pipeline is the key to New Brunswick's prosperity (50%). Fewer than a third agree with the other statements, including "I don't usually vote Liberal but I think I will this time" (30% in total, 26% among past Progressive Conservatives and 40% among past New Democrats), "I will vote for the party I have always voted for" (27% agree in total, 40% among past Liberals), and "I usually vote NDP but they are running a campaign which is too right wing" (22% agree in total, 41% among past New Democrats).





"The Liberals have a solid lead across the province, and especially with the Francophone population, and it appears this will translate into almost absolute dominance of the Legislative Assembly," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.