Averaged 46% last week after averaging 50% for much of May

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Obama's job approval rating averaged 46% for the week ending June 12, a significant decline from his weekly averages for most of May and nearly back to the level before Osama bin Laden's death on May 1.





Thus, it appears the sustained rally in support for the president after the death of the Sept. 11 terror mastermind is largely over. The drop in Obama's approval rating coincides with an increase in Americans' pessimism about the economy. Economic confidence also increased after bin Laden's death but began to decline early this month, perhaps due to reports of anemic job growth and concerns about the slow pace of economic recovery.

Gallup polling in mid-May found that the rally in support for Obama extended to his approval ratings for handling terrorism and foreign affairs but not his economic approval ratings.

Independents' Ratings Down Most

Among partisan groups, independents' approval rating of Obama dropped the most in the past week, from 47% to 42%, with a smaller decline among Democrats. Republicans' approval of Obama spiked to 21% during the first week after bin Laden's death from 10% in late April, before falling back to the 15% range, where it has held since.





Even though Obama's approval rally is largely over, some subgroups do give the president slightly higher ratings now than immediately before bin Laden's death. Republicans are one such group. Two others are Americans younger than 30 (46% then versus 53% now) and aged 30 to 49 (45% versus 51%). In contrast, senior citizens' approval rating of Obama, now at 37%, is lower than it was before the recent rally began.





Implications

Obama's approval rating has averaged below the majority level for most of the time since early 2010. The 50% approval mark is important because presidents with approval ratings above that level have always won re-election. Obama's approval rating generally held around the 50% mark in May, but that period of higher support seems over now.

There is still much time left for Obama to recover, with Election Day 17 months away. Indeed, at comparable points in their presidencies, Richard Nixon (48%), Ronald Reagan (45%), and Bill Clinton (47%) -- all of whom were re-elected -- had approval ratings similar to Obama's current 46%.