Anders Åslund observes development in Russia and suggests that Putin is losing his grip on power, even if he secures his fourth term in next year's election. When Putin became prime minister in 1999, few thought he would last long. Russia under Boris Yeltsin between 1991-1999 saw a high turnover of premiership. Prime ministers were in and out of office like people coming through a revolving door.

Yeltsin was well remembered for confronting the tanks outside the Russian Parliament in defiance of the attempted hardline coup in Moscow in 1991, showing that popular opinion could conquer authoritarianism. He broke the stranglehold of Communism and reined in the KGB, ushering in democracy. Yet his economic liberalisation gave rise to "Wild West" form of capitalism, allowing a small group of businessmen acquire state assets at dirt-cheap prices. Swiftly the oligarchs amassed fabulous wealth, while ordinary Russians struggled with rampant inflation and lost much of their savings. It dealt a severe psychological blow to a country accustomed to state paternalism.

Yeltsin's poor health, gaffes and blunders in his chaotic final years of presidency alienated many Russians, who could not cope with the shock therapy he introduced - the very dramatic and painful economic reforms. Today those who witnessed the first decade of freedom under Yeltsin, remember him as the leader who plunged the country into near-anarchy and instability. They feel that they have regained more stability under Putin.

Since Putin succeeded Yeltsin in 2000, he prevailed with apparent ease over opponents and oligarchs, who sought to discard him, or to challenge him. Today he is still in power and sees it as his mission to restore Russia's former glory and protect its interest in the states and territories which had once belonged to the Soviet Union or had been part of its sphere of influence. In his view, Russia should be a power to be reckoned with. For him the greatest sin is to be weak. In 2004 after the Beslan school massacre he told Russians that weak people would be beaten.

If Putin runs for his fourth term next year - it was most unlikely that a man like Putin with his sense of mission would bow out of politics - he will remain in office until 2024. Already on September 12, he quietly passed a landmark date after 6,602 days in office, and went down in history as the longest-serving Russian leader since Joseph Stalin, who led the Soviet Union for almost three decades between 1924 and 1953 — 10,636 days in total.

Putin had luck during his first decade in office. Russia's rising oil revenues gave him lots of room for manoeuvre. In 2003, the private sector accounted to 70% of the country’s GDP. Today, state-owned enterprises generate "most of the country’s output, squeezing out small and medium-size enterprises, and five big state banks dominate the financial market." Putin's cronies and loyalists run Russia's economy. In the absence of credible property rights, they know that the only safe places to keep their assets are abroad. They saw how Putin reclaimed some of the assets that Yeltsin had transfered to the oligarchs in the 1990s, who were advised to stay out of politics. Those, who fell out with him were either put behind bars or forced to leave the country.

Alexei Navalny wants to unseat Putin, but has no chance to win, despite his popularity, due to his "criminal record". He was prosecuted on trumped-up charges, because he has led an anti graft and corruption campaign to investigate holes in state finances. Those holes are huge with billions of dollars disappearing annually on government contracts. Some in Putin’s "inner circle would prefer to lock up Navalny for the fourth time this year – no surprise, given his proven capacity to disrupt the Kremlin’s authority." His revelations in March about Dmitry Medvedev having secretly accumulated a vast fortune including country estates made the prime minister the most hated man in Russia. No doubt Putin will want to replace his long-time buddy after next year's election. There are many candidates, whoever it will be, the question is, "whether the next prime minister will be more closely allied with Putin or the FSB."

The author says, the US "may play an unexpected role in this drama." Congress had in August enacted Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, " calling for a "report on 'Russian oligarchs and parastatal entities' within 180 days." This would offer the US a "unique opportunity to influence the Kremlin before the presidential election." Many wealthy have already fled the country "in fear of the FSB. Now, Russia may see another wave of departures, with those close to the Kremlin fearing that Putin can no longer protect them. Putin may be guaranteed another presidential term, but a regime that cannot satisfy even its rulers is hardly sustainable." It is so sad to see where Russia is headed. The country has huge potential to become an economic powerhouse and to provide for its people.