Clinton and Trump

Hillary Clinton has opened up a big lead over Donald Trump in Ohio, according to the most thorough statewide poll to date, conducted by the Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute.

(Left: Andrew Harnik, AP Photo; Right: Evan Vucci, AP Photo)

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Ohio following the news of Trump's vulgar talk about women and after the second debate between the candidates, according to a statewide poll released today by Baldwin Wallace University in Berea.

Clinton leads Trump, 48 percent to 38 percent, with 14 percent unsure, in a direct match-up, the poll found. When the two minority party candidates are added to the mix - as they are on state ballots -- Clinton leads by 9 percent, 43 percent to 34 percent.

The Baldwin Wallace Community Research Institute poll began at 11 p.m. Sunday, less than a half hour after the second debate concluded, and ended at 7 p.m. Tuesday. It surveyed 1,152 likely voters across the state, with quotas to make sure that the survey sample matched up with the state's age and gender breakdowns. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.

Recent polls, which involved much smaller samples and higher margins of error, mostly showed the race to be closer, with most showing Trump slightly ahead but the most recent showing Clinton in the lead. Those polls were conducted before news broke about a video in which Trump described groping women and kissing them without permission.

"When the polls showed Trump in the lead, some suggested that Ohio's importance in electoral politics might be declining," Lauren Copeland, a political science professor at Baldwin Wallace, said in a news release. "However, with less than four weeks to go until the general election, our results are consistent with other recent national polls, and suggest that scholars and pundits shouldn't write off Ohio's presidential predictive power just yet."

What is driving these results? Disapproval. Disapproval. Disapproval.

The poll found most voters are unhappy with both candidates and the election is more about who people are voting against. Of the people voting for Trump, 63 percent say they are casting a vote against Clinton. And of those voting for Clinton, 47 percent say they want to stop Trump.

"A large percentage of Ohio's electorate is most passionate about who should not be president," said Tom Sutton, director of the Baldwin Wallace Community Research Institute, which conducted the poll. "The bad news for Trump is that more of the undecideds -- and some third party supporters -- who are now coming off the fence are moving to Clinton."

Indeed, 46 percent of those identifying themselves as independents are in Clinton's corner, compared to 35 percent for Trump. Less than 20 percent of the independents said they are undecided.

How are women voting after hearing Trump's vulgar talk? And men?

Clinton leads the state with both male and female voters, the poll showed. More than 41 percent of men go with Clinton, compared to 39 percent for Trump. And 44 percent of women vote Clinton, compared to 34 percent for Trump.

Clinton leads in most age groups, with a commanding lead in the 18-to-34 set, 47 percent to Trump's 21. The one age group skewing to Trump is 65 and over, where Trump has 44 percent of the vote, compared to Clinton's 39 percent.

Does education play into how voters feel? Absolutely.

The breakdowns based on education level are stark. People who did not finish high school favor Clinton by a huge margin, 43 percent to 14 percent for Trump. But people with no more education than a high school diploma favor Trump, 44 percent to 39 percent for Clinton.

When you add in some college, the margin grows for Trump, to 44 percent compared to Clinton's 33 percent.

But people with four-year degrees favor Clinton, 48 percent to 30 percent for Trump. And people with advanced degrees overwhelmingly favor Clinton, 52 percent to Trump's 29 percent.

The poll also asked about Sunday's debate, with 59 percent of those surveyed having watched it. Of those, 52 percent said Clinton won, 31 percent said Trump won and 17 percent called it a tie.

Separately, in the race for an Ohio U.S. Senate seat, Republican incumbent Rob Portman leads former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, 48 percent to 36 percent with 17 percent undecided. Most recent polls show Portman with a commanding lead.