2019 Gu marks second consecutive poor season, driving widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes

KEY MESSAGES

• The nutritional status of children under five, and pregnant and lactating mothers in IDP camps, such as Gedeo, East and West Hararghe, are likely to deteriorate through September 2019 due to the continuing poor conditions that are exacerbated by the shortage and timeliness of required staple and specialized nutrition food assistance, though priority has been given to these areas and additional transfers have been made available for new arrivals.

• Due to the worse than expected Gu/Gana rainy season in southern and southeastern pastoral areas of SNNPR, Oromia and Somali Region, food security outcomes have deteriorated. This is particularly true in the southeastern part of Somali region where rains did not start until the end of first dekad of April. As a result, the entire region is expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September.

• Belg rainfall performance has been mixed but overall belowaverage throughout the country, with relatively more favorable conditions in eastern Amhara, southern Tigray, and western SNNPR beginning in the last week of March. Rainfall has been erratic and below-average in central and eastern Oromia, eastern SNNPR and throughout Somali region. As a result, long-cycle and root crops are likely to be negatively impacted, and households in eastern SNNPR, Oromia and Amhara have planted less, reducing their typical total area planted.

• Humanitarian food assistance needs exceed the number of total approved targeted beneficiaries and funding gaps are expected to persist. Taking into consideration the below average Gu/Genna/Belg rainy season, the number of beneficiaries in need of humanitarian food assistance will likely increase. This will likely increase the number of poor households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and above through September 2019.