Mary Burke campaigns at North Division High School in Milwaukee on Tuesday, while Scott Walker speaks to supporters in Appleton. Credit: Mark Hoffman/Journal Sentinel, Joshua Bessex/Appleton Post-Crescent

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Republican Gov. Scott Walker leads Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50% to 43% among likely voters in the latest survey by the Marquette University Law School.

That represents a change from other Wisconsin surveys in recent weeks — including a Marquette poll two weeks ago — that showed the race essentially tied.

The Marquette results released Wednesday underscore just how much turnout matters to the outcome of the contest for governor. Walker's gains were not among the broader population of registered voters, but among those who said they were certain to vote Tuesday. That's the group defined as "likely voters" in Marquette's polling.

The race is much tighter and has changed little among all registered voters — with Walker leading Burke 46% to 45%.

"The caveat is turnout, turnout, turnout," said Charles Franklin, who conducts the Marquette poll, noting that the swings in his polling in recent months have had more to do with shifts in motivation and enthusiasm between the two sides than with broad changes in overall opinion.

"What we've seen all year is that motivation has moved the vote more than underlying preference among all registered voters," Franklin said.

Marquette surveyed 1,164 likely voters from last Thursday through Sunday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Favorability ratings

There is more than one factor behind the pro-Walker tilt in the new survey.

First, Republicans are expressing more certainty than Democrats about voting. In the new poll, 93% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats say they are certain to vote, reflecting a potential turnout gap. As a result, likely voters in Marquette's new poll are a more Republican group than likely voters in its last survey.

Second, there is a sizable shift toward Walker among independents, who have bounced around in the polling. Independents were tied among likely voters two weeks ago but preferred Walker 52% to 37% in the latest poll.

Third, there is some decline in Burke's image. Among registered voters, 38% view Burke favorably while 45% view her unfavorably. Among likely voters, 39% view her favorably while 49% view her unfavorably. Until now, Burke's "positive" and "negative" ratings have roughly paralleled each other as she has become better known.

"It's the first time we've seen her that far upside down — or under water — on favorability ratings," Franklin said.

Marquette's previous survey, taken Oct. 9-12, showed Walker and Burke tied at 47% among likely voters. Since early October, five different polling organizations using very different polling methods have all found that Walker and Mary Burke are within 1 point of each other.

"Clearly we are different from those other (recent polls) in showing a significant lead here for Walker among likely voters," Franklin said.

The big unknown between now and election day, said Franklin, is whether turnout efforts by the two parties have the potential to shift the makeup of the electorate. Democrats have won the past two presidential races in Wisconsin but lost the last two races for governor, in part because of turnout factors; Democrats tend to have more voters who show up in presidential years but drop off in other contests.

The "turnout gap" between Democrats and Republicans in this poll is similar to — though slightly smaller than — the one Marquette found before the 2012 recall election, which Walker won by 7 points. But it is significantly bigger than the turnout gap in Marquette's early October survey, when 82% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats said they were certain to vote.

Walker repeated his standard answer Wednesday when asked about the new poll, saying he would run hard until Tuesday regardless of the latest results.

"The only poll I'm concerned about is the one on election day," he said.

Burke's campaign released a statement saying: "Today's poll confirms what we've known for months — it's too close to call and going to come down to turnout. In the final six days, voters face a clear choice. A new direction with Mary Burke where everyone willing to put in the hard work gets a fair shot. Or to continue on the failed path Gov. Walker has us on — which puts those at the top and special interests before Wisconsin families..."

Lack of name recognition

In the race for attorney general, Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel is leading Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ 43% to 39% among likely voters. The two are tied at 40% among all registered voters.

Two weeks ago, likely voters were split down the middle, with each candidate at 42%.

Even at this point in the campaigns, voters are still largely unfamiliar with the two candidates for attorney general. Among likely voters, 68% could offer no view of either contestant.

"That's not a problem with the governor's race. It is a problem with the attorney general's race," said Franklin.

On specific issues, voters are about evenly split as far as siding with Democrats or siding with Republicans.

Among likely voters:

■ Fifty-eight percent said Wisconsin should accept federal funds to expand Medicaid coverage; 27% say it should reject expansion.

■ Fifty-six percent back a hike in the minimum wage; 40% oppose it.

■ Sixty percent support a requirement of a photo ID to vote; 36% are opposed.

■ Fifty-six percent say people are not employed mostly because they lack employment skills; 35% say it's due to a lack of available jobs.

■ Fifty-two percent oppose requiring women seeking an abortion to have an ultrasound; 41% favor it.

■ Fifty-six percent say recipients of food stamps and unemployment benefits should be required to pass drug tests; 40% said it would be a waste of money with little impact.

The issues that inspired the biggest partisan division in the poll were Walker's restrictions on collective bargaining and whether to raise the minimum wage. The issues that inspired the smallest partisan divisions were the Kenosha casino project and whether to criminalize the first drunken driving offense.

The election is Tuesday.

Lee Bergquist of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.