Written by Timothy Lewis (@MrTeeLew) — October 12th, 2017

In this weekly segment, I apply athletic and statistical data to uncover what is to come in the wild world of fantasy football. Last week’s hot takes included Aaron Jones, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon, the Bills’ defense, and the Ravens’ offense. Welcome to Trends and Takeaways Heading into Week 6. Cheers!

Cam Newton is John Wick

Cam Newton via giphy

Cam Newton, weary traveler and diminished talent, was all but forgotten in his descent to the waiver wire wasteland. Somewhere along the tumble, a fatefully jetting rock bounced him into a Lazarus pit of football goodness. More likely, he recuperated from shoulder surgery and found his rhythm, but a more dramatic excuse is needed for my laughably wrong take following week 3 (Sorry, Cam). Against New England’s porous defense, his performance may have seemed flukish. This has been dispelled with his 347 passing yard, 3 touchdown shredding of a tough Detroit unit. In this resurgent two game period, Cam Newton has completed over 75% of his passes for 663 yards and 6 passing touchdowns, adding another 44 yards on the ground and 1 rushing touchdown. In other words: Newton is channeling his best John Wick impression. My lone area of predictive redemption is in the emergence of Devin Funchess, who appears to be taking hold of WR1 duties over Kelvin Benjamin. Over the last two contests he has totaled 17 targets, 14 receptions, and 3 TDs. In that time Benjamin has totaled just 10 targets, 8 receptions, and a single touchdown.

Elijah McGuire has sneaky upside

Something something Jets via Flickr

The Jets can cut bait on Bilal Powell and Matt Forte at the end of this season without heavy repercussions. Such a move is foreseeable for a rebuilding team rostering running backs of 29 and 31 years old respectively. Elijah McGuire is the only other back of note on the roster, a rookie standing 5’10”, 214 lbs. He has the characteristics of a 3 down back, having handed pass catching duties frequently at UL Lafayette (15.4% target share). Being shut down by a stingy Browns’ run defense may not have helped McGuire’s case, but Bilal Powell’s calf injury and Matt Forte’s turf toe makes it likely he sees the field in a juicy match-up against the Patriots. Even before Powell went down, McGuire was seeing surprising usage, indicating the coaching staff wants to see what they have in their versatile rookie. Monitor the injury status of his backfield mates closely, as McGuire has strong FLEX appeal depending on their limitations. It’s hard to get too excited about anyone of the Jets, but it’s possible he explodes into what many hoped Bilal Powell would be after taking him in the first five rounds of drafts.

Doug Martin: League winner

created via imgflip.com

It never made much sense why Ezekiel Elliott, with a looming 6 game suspension, was going multiple, and sometimes several rounds before Doug Martin, who was suspended only 3 games. While inconsistent year to year, we’ve all seen what the Bucs’ running back is capable of. Martin showed his trademark agility and physicality in his first game back, breaking 5 of 13 carries for 7 yards or more. While Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers were worked in frequently, the Muscle Hamster still took a 57.1% opportunity share in his first game back, handling the brunt of the carries but giving up some work on passing downs. With a promising performance, Martin’s workload should increase as soon as this upcoming Sunday. These next three weeks against Arizona, Buffalo, and Carolina may be trying, but his schedule softens considerably afterward. In a game where “one does not simply find an RB1”, Doug Martin is here to stay. Do not trade.

Logan Thomas is the Bills’ TE to own

Longing thoughts of Charles Clay via Flickr

Who? Logan Thomas is a quarterback convert that, due to his size, ended up not as a wide receiver or running back, but a tight end. Charles Clay tore his meniscus and sprained his MCL in week 5, ensuring a multi-week absence at minimum. Acting as the de facto WR1 in the Bills’ offense, Clay was 10th in targets, 6th in catches, 5th in receiving yards, and 4th in red zone target share at the TE position. While it was Nick O’Leary serving as next man up, hauling in 5 catches for 65 yards, it’s hard to have any confidence in him as a weekly play maker. He’s 6’3” and ran a lineman-esque 4.97 second 40 yard dash. None of his athletic or physical measurables are even slightly redeemable. Despite impressive college production, O’Leary’s NFL ceiling is that of a lumbering possession receiver a la Jack Doyle. Logan Thomas on the other hand is exciting. Can he play? Who knows! But he’s a top notch athlete in an offense devoid of explosive play makers. Standing at 6’6” with a 35.5 inch vertical, he could quickly find himself taking Clay’s role in the red zone. It’s a long shot, but the risk is small with a potentially huge payoff.

Might as well trade for Evan Engram

Eli Manning trying to figure this sh*t out via flickr

The New York Giants are in shambles, both in terms of fantasy and actual football. Eli Manning isn’t washed, but he hasn’t been good either. Losing their top three wide receivers to injury, two of which are gone for the season, the Giants’ offense is facing a massive redistribution of volume. After a stinker of a performance last week, rookie Evan Engram could be available for a surprising discount. Even with 0 catches and just 4 targets in week 5, he remains the 4th most targeted tight end in the NFL. His eye-popping athleticism and receiving ability provide the only mismatch the Giants have on offense. They can’t run the ball, and expecting Roger Lewis to ascend faultlessly to the #1 WR role is a lofty projection. Volume alone will keep the rookie afloat, and with Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall out for the season, his red zone target share should skyrocket from it’s disappointing 11.8%. Additionally, Engram’s 60% contested catch rate, good for 2nd at his position, suggests he will be able to handle increased attention from defenses.

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