Mike Cronin

mcronin@citizen-times.com

Without changes in preparing workers for the future, Western North Carolina will suffer massive job losses and declines in total wages by 2050 N.C. State University public-policy analysts say.

Automation and technological changes could cause Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Madison and Transylvania counties to lose about 67,500 jobs from the roughly 185,200 that exist today, a drop of nearly 37 percent, according to projections from the N.C. State Institute for Emerging Issues in Raleigh.

How technological shifts would affect occupations emerged as a topic of concern after institute officials conducted focus groups, interviews and round-table discussions with leaders from government, private and nonprofit sectors in fall 2014 and spring 2015.

IEI then used research by Michael Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor and economist at N.C. State, which examined the future impacts of technology on the labor market to make its projections.

The nonpartisan public policy organization has been touring the state to share its predictions and held presentations and discussions at Asheville-Buncombe Technical Community College in July.

“Leaders felt that this was a critical issue facing the state's future economic competitiveness,” said Donnie Charleston, the institute’s economy policy manager.

Automation in the past was limited to routine tasks, such as mass-producing fenders for vehicles.

“Now there is technology that has cognitive capabilities,” Walden said, who began exploring the issue last year by examining the interaction between coming technological changes with several hundred job categories.

For example, law firms are phasing out research paralegals due to computer programs that can do that work instead.

Additional technological pivots include grocery stores that increasingly use automated checkout lines rather than cashiers. And soon, Walden said, fast-food restaurant customers will be ordering through electronic kiosks.

But disruptions ahead are not isolated to WNC, nor are they new to society in general, he said.

“The impact of technology on the labor market is worldwide,” Walden said. “There will be some differences between regions based on the differing occupational structures of regions, but no area is immune.”

About a century ago, the tractor caused a cataclysm in the agricultural sector.

It “took the place of millions of farmers,” Walden said.

Around the same time, Henry Ford created the first assembly line to mass produce automobiles.

Executives then adapted assembly lines to other industries and dislocated factory workers, Walden said.

Yet technology itself is different today.

The pace and pervasiveness in which it brings change has quickened and expanded, experts say.

So now the question is: Will new occupations emerge to replace those that technology displaces?

“The progress may be so fast that many people won't be able to keep up, and we could well end up in a scenario where there simply aren't enough jobs,” said Martin Ford, author of last year’s award-winning and best-selling book, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future.

“At that point, we'll have to come up with a new solution, perhaps something like a guaranteed or basic income,” said Ford in an email. He spoke at the Institute for Emerging Issues’ February forum in Raleigh.

IEI officials hope to lessen job losses through improvements in education from kindergarten through college and through changes in workforce training.

The organization’s statewide tour already has yielded results, Charleston said.

Iredell County officials, for instance, are exploring changes in K-12 education that could meet emerging challenges, he said.

And the North Carolina League of Municipalities has “pledged to bolster its efforts at strengthening connections between city and county governments,” Charleston said.

League officials hope doing so will dissolve jurisdictional boundaries.

WNC challenges

The institute’s dismal projections don’t daunt Shelley White, vice president for economic and workforce development and continuing education at A-B Tech.

The school’s mission for 57 years has been to train workers for precisely these types of labor upheavals, White said.

A-B Tech “is designed to be flexible and nimble to meet the training and educational needs of a changing economy,” White said.

Current programs to meet shifting market conditions include those that encompass composites- and information and computer-systems training, she said.

Similar adjustments likely will be necessary in the mountains during the coming years.

The institute ranked the state’s western region as the second-most vulnerable to the forecasted economic changes. That region comprises Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, Polk, Rutherford, Swain and Transylvania counties.

Institute officials divided North Carolina into eight regions.

“Western North Carolina’s economic structure and profile don’t seem propitious for rapid growth,” said Peter Coclanis, Global Research Institute director and Albert Ray Newsome Distinguished Professor at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

“The types of jobs characteristic of Western North Carolina – low-skill manufacturing and routine service-sector positions – are vulnerable to cuts, losses, etc.,” Coclanis said. “What Western North Carolina needs is more middle-class, private-sector jobs.”

The region is relatively poor, Coclanis said. And only 36 percent of the population has an associate’s degree or higher, according to IEI data.

Other strikes against the region include less-than-adequate infrastructure, from roads and bridges to high-speed internet and a relatively small airport.

All of which contributes to the institute’s and Coclanis’ pessimistic outlook for the region.

But White said the institute’s bleak assessment fails to take into account that unanticipated job sectors are likely to emerge, and those could help offset losses in traditional employment areas.

The state’s community-college system is the best entity that exists for post-secondary education training needed to stay competitive, said Nathan Ramsey, the Mountain Area Workforce Development Board director.

Federal legislation created the board, a nonprofit organization that serves Buncombe, Henderson, Madison and Transylvania counties. Its annual budget is about $2 million, part of which is used to provide free skill-training.

But existing local and national workforce development programs “are not prepared for the rapidity of change that is coming in the future,” Ramsey said.

Workforce officials must develop more training opportunities that will meet employers’ and employees’ needs, he said.

Ramsey would like to see a better synthesis of on-the-job learning with community-college training.

“It’s happening, but not on the scale we want,” he said.

Already, in today’s economy, “a four-year degree doesn’t insulate graduates” from being unemployed, Ramsey said. “Twenty years ago, it did.”

Technical competence is required to complement the traditional liberal-arts education, he said.

Certifications and demographics

That is a primary reason for the proliferation of certificate programs nationwide, said Nicole Smith, research professor and chief economist at the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce in Washington, D.C.

Ninety-nine percent of U.S. jobs created from 2007 through 2015 required some type of post-secondary education, Smith said.

The nuance is that, as Ramsey alluded, it’s not any kind of education, it’s the education that specifically fits what the job market needs.

And “it’s not necessarily a bachelor’s degree,” Smith said. It could be a two-year associate’s degree in robotics or some certification in applied sciences, for example.

That’s true also of high-level white-collar employers who might already possess specialized higher-education training, Coclanis said.

“Technology – whether robots, artificial intelligence, pattern-recognition computers, advanced-precision machinery, etc. – is bringing about job losses, wage cuts, etc., much higher up the value chain and job ladder – and threatening to go even higher,” Coclanis said.

“Accountants, lawyers, teachers, professors, writers and doctors can even be rendered redundant in some cases – with their work either delegated to machines or outsourced to cheaper geographic sites," he said.

Institute officials and Walden predict wages will decline in this kind of a scenario due to a convergence of two trends: The reduced demand for labor by businesses because they have technology that may do the jobs instead and an increase in the supply of available workers.

Identifying improvements in training will become crucial by 2050 for another reason, too.

Demographers predict the minority population will compose the majority of the U.S. population then, Smith said.

Minorities historically have had a lower education-attainment level than whites, said Smith, a black woman who is originally from Trinidad & Tobago.

“The fear is that when we get to that point, and the country looks more brown, we’ll have lots of people underqualified or less qualified to take the jobs of tomorrow,” she said. “That’s the subtext of what they don’t say.”

To ensure employers have enough job candidates with the skills they seek, students and workers will have to tailor their higher-education programs.

Even degrees from prestigious colleges and universities won’t guarantee continued employment like they used to, Smith said.

“People are going to have to demonstrate what their competencies are (on the job),” she said. “If they don’t possess the skills the new economy requires, they’re going to be left behind.”

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Effects of coming automation and technological changes in Western North Carolina

Below is a snapshot of the predicted impacts automation and technological changes will have on Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Madison and Transylvania counties by about 2050.

Buncombe

Percent of jobs lost: 39 percent (fifth-highest in state)

Total jobs lost: 47,490

Percent of wages lost: 25 percent

Total wages lost: $1.2 billion

Haywood

Percent of jobs lost: 34 percent

Total jobs lost: 6,080

Percent of wages lost: 24 percent

Total wages lost: $152.2 million

Henderson

Percent of jobs lost: 34 percent

Total jobs lost: 11,050

Percent of wages lost: 26 percent

Total wages lost: $324.2 million

Madison

Percent of jobs lost: 13 percent

Total jobs lost: 500

Percent of wages lost: 9 percent

Total wages lost: $11.4 million

Transylvania

Percent of jobs lost: 24 percent

Total jobs lost: 2,370

Percent of wages lost: 17 percent

Total wages lost: $56.5 million

Sources: North Carolina State University Institute for Emerging Issues; Michael Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor, Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University

Projected job losses by WNC county

Automation and technology changes will cause massive job losses in WNC, say experts at North Carolina State University. The below chart shows job-loss predictions by occupation and county that N.C. State experts expect to occur by about 2050.



Sources: North Carolina State University Institute for Emerging Issues; Michael Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor, Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University

Most at-risk WNC occupations

Lower-income jobs dominate the list of occupations that North Carolina State University experts predict will lose at least 1,000 positions due to expected automation and technology changes in Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Madison and Transylvania counties by about 2050.

7,380 – retail salespersons

6,490 – fast food restaurant workers

5,580 – cashiers

5,410 – waiters and waitresses

3,930 – office clerks

3,240 – moving laborers

3,040 – non-medical, -legal and –executive secretaries

2,360 – restaurant cooks

2,260 – bookkeeping clerks

2,000 – food preparation workers

1,790 – receptionists

1,720 – heavy truck drivers

1,590 – wholesaling and manufacturing sales personnel

1,640 – landscaping workers

1,180 – cafeteria and coffee shop attendants

1,010 – security guards

1,000 – restaurant hosts and hostesses

Sources: North Carolina State University Institute for Emerging Issues; Michael Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor, Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University

Western North Carolina projected to lose a quarter of total wages by about 2050

North Carolina State University experts categorize the state’s western region as the second-most vulnerable to future economic disruption due to automation and technology changes. They divided North Carolina into eight regions. The western region comprises: Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, Polk, Rutherford, Swain and Transylvania counties.

By about 2050, those N.C. State experts predict, the western region will suffer:

A 26 percent loss of total wages.

A $2.1 billion loss in total existing wages.

Sources: North Carolina State University Institute for Emerging Issues; Michael Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor, Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University

Most vulnerable occupations in North Carolina

Below is a list of the 20 most vulnerable jobs in the state due to predicted technological changes and automation, say North Carolina State University experts. The first number is the estimated current total employment in North Carolina. The second number is the average annual wage.

1 Combined food-preparation and serving workers, including fast-food: 141,040; $17,950

2 Retail salespersons: 140,620; $25,050

3 Cashiers: 109,350; $19,170

4 Waiters and Waitresses: 78,210; $19,520

5 General office clerks: 76,820; $27,410

6 Laborers and by-hand freight, stock and material movers: 76,760; $25,680

7 Non legal- and –medical secretaries and administrative assistants: 59,040; $33,410

8 Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers: 49,990; $38,620

9 Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks: 43,490; $35,790

10 Non-technical and non-scientific product wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives: 43,390; $65,150

11 Team assemblers (Workers who are part of a team that assembles a product or part of a product): 42,700; $28,050

12 Restaurant cooks: 36,200; $21,210

13 Accountants and auditors: 30,170; $71,200

14 Landscaping and groundskeeping workers: 28,900; $24,280

15 Receptionists and information clerks: 28,200; $26,590

16 Security guards: 26,720; $25,380

17 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants: 22,940; $48,750

18 Services and all other types of sales representatives: 21,330; $60,820

19 Shipping, receiving and traffic clerks: 20,160; $30,640

20 Industrial truck and tractor operators: 19,810; $30,310

Sources: North Carolina State University Institute for Emerging Issues; Michael Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor, Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University