Another World Population Day has come and gone. It went virtually unnoticed and unheralded because it was the day after Arun Jaitley’s maiden budget. How many of us appreciate that India will be adding another 400 million to her current population of about 1.24 billion in the next 36 years? China, on the other hand, will be adding just 25 million by 2050. In fact, between 2025 and 2050, China is expected to show a small population decline as its population stabilizes at around 1.5 billion. It has been said that China will grow old before it becomes rich but what can be said of India for sure is that by 2050, it will most definitely become the world’s most populous country—a most dubious distinction if ever there was one. Of course, having such a huge denominator helps us to argue endlessly in international climate change negotiations that our per capita emissions are low, but this is an argument that will not take us far any longer.

Actually, to give ourselves some credit, a number of states have already reached the critical Total Fertility Rate (TFR) level of 2.1. This is considered demographically crucial since with this TFR, population stabilizes after about a generation-and-a-half or two. TFR indicates the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her entire span of reproductive period. The All-India TFR was at 2.4 in 2012. The states that have already fallen below replacement levels of fertility (TFR=2.1) are Kerala (1.8), Tamil Nadu (1.7), Karnataka (1.9), Andhra Pradesh (1.8), Maharashtra (1.8), Punjab (1.7), Himachal Pradesh (1.7), Jammu and Kashmir (1.9) and West Bengal (1.7). Kerala was the very first to achieve this milestone in 1988, followed by Tamil Nadu in 1993 and Andhra Pradesh in 2000.

That these states did so should not be too surprising but that some other large states have joined them is indeed a positive trend.

But there are a number of populous states where TFR is still greater than 2.1. These are Uttar Pradesh (3.3), Bihar (3.5), Chhattisgarh (2.7), Madhya Pradesh (2.9), Rajasthan (2.9), Jharkhand (2.8) and Assam (2.4). Surprisingly, Odisha has just reached 2.1 but Gujarat, equally surprisingly given the spectacular claims that are made on its development “model", is still at 2.3. These are the states that need special focus through not just programmes of education, health and family welfare but also new means such as women’s self-help groups, which have expanded substantially.

Nowadays, we speak of demographic dividends when actually we are staring at a demographic disaster. There is undoubtedly a dividend to be harnessed through education, skill development and job creation, but at the same time, we must not accept the situation in the high-TFR states as something that cannot be changed. These states are in need of “Tamil Nadu model", which going back to the days of K. Kamaraj in the 1950s, has combined economic growth with social welfare and delivered outstanding results, irrespective of political parties. Kerala too is a good example but there are some factors that are unique to Kerala and in terms of replicability, Tamil Nadu is more relevant. Andhra Pradesh achieved the replacement level almost wholly because of aggressive sterilization campaigns and its public health system is nowhere as caring as that in Tamil Nadu.

The incremental growth to our population is coming from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Assam and Odisha. These states will account for more than 60% of the country’s population, up from the present level of around 45%. This has profound consequences for labour markets all over the country. As an example, it has been estimated that remittances from workers from these states working in Kerala to their families was around ₹ 17,000 crore in 2013—a very significant amount. The strength of Parliament and assemblies has been frozen till 2026 so that the well-performing states are not penalized. Perhaps, it is time to extend that freeze even further.

And with the population growth it is going through, how long can the restructuring of India’s most populous state be postponed? Surely, the reorganization of Uttar Pradesh into four new states as proposed by the former chief minister Mayawati is a matter of urgent political attention, more so since Parliament has just reorganized Andhra Pradesh, albeit for completely different reasons.

Population is not just about quantity—quality also matters. Here too, we are still at a huge disadvantage with unacceptably high levels of child malnutrition, which is seen largely as a food access and food security issue. We have yet to fully grasp the close link between poor sanitation and chronic malnutrition. This is because of environmental enteric dysfunction, which arises because chronic exposure to faecal pathogens reduces the efficacy of the small intestine in digestion and absorption of food.

India’s very large population of stunted children needs not just nutrition interventions but freedom from open defecation and poor personal and collective hygiene.

Many countries of the world like Japan, Russia and Germany are facing long-term population declines. Some countries like the US and UK show population growth in considerable part on account of immigration. Some countries like China will witness modest increases. But India stands alone in terms of the sheer magnitude of the upsurge it will go through. This is a fundamental reason why our present growth must not only be rapid and inclusive but also sustainable. We simply cannot jeopardize the prospects of coming generations when India will be one of the very few countries to have such generations.

Starting today, Rajya Sabha MP and former Union minister Jairam Ramesh will be writing a weekly column for Mint.

Subscribe to Mint Newsletters * Enter a valid email * Thank you for subscribing to our newsletter.

Share Via