Oakland’s on the verge of huge change — we’ve seen some of it.

But where it takes the city is anyone’s guess. SPUR, a Bay Area pro-growth think tank, warned in a recent study that one of two things could happen.

The economy could really take off in a way that harms Oakland’s “cultural dynamism, racial and ethnic diversity, political activism and identity as a welcoming community.”

Or the economic boom — and all the new jobs and housing that come with it — could pass the city by.

“It’s right on the cusp, and we’re excited about the potential, but this is also a time to have a strong vision of what kind of city Oakland wants to be and for its downtown, what kind of downtown Oakland wants to have,” said Egon Terplan, the organization’s regional planning director, who wrote the report.

The report calls for 50,000 new jobs and 25,000 new residents, expanding on former Mayor (and now governor) Jerry Brown’s proposal to repopulate the district with 10,000 new residents.

It also asks much of Oakland city leaders: specifically to establish clear policy guidelines to prospective developers and stick to them, a task that has been almost impossible in Oakland.

SPUR researchers are convinced that more public art and park improvements will increase commercial, investment and spur residential interest in the district. Expanded public transit services along the city’s Broadway corridor would also be welcomed, the report said.

The biggest challenges on SPUR’s wish list are job creation as a path to economic growth, but beyond the confines of downtown Oakland, the marketing strategy that compares Oakland to the new Brooklyn, N.Y., doesn’t include any comparisons to Dodge City, but it should.

Violent crime taking toll

Because right alongside the four officer-involved shootings in Oakland this summer that have riled the activist community, parts of Oakland have been a shooting gallery, especially in the last month.

According to statistics compiled by the Oakland Police Department, five people were killed last week alone, and twice as many were struck by gunfire. No city with a continuing violent crime problem of that magnitude can claim victory just yet.

The housing build-out in Oakland is a necessity and a no-brainer. San Francisco’s cup spilleth over, and Oakland is poised to catch much of the overflow citizenry. That’s not planning. It’s geography, or in real estate parlance: location, location, location.

The trick in Oakland is not only coming to terms on job creation, but creating immovable policy guidelines that put an end to the nonsensical fights over city contracts and the enormous profits they represent.

Any longtime observer of Oakland politics can tell you that some of our elected officials don’t perk up until there is money on the table. They then spend so much time shilling for their favorite bidder, and the entire process is compromised.

Oakland residents have seen it happen too many times for it to be coincidence. City officials steered last year’s garbage contract to friends, with disastrous results. During Ron Dellums’ tenure as mayor, the city held an open call for Fire Department recruits that was so rigged the entire process was tossed out.

If city policies must be upgraded to meet the future economic challenges — and to capitalize on opportunities, Oakland’s policymaking body has got to perform at a much higher level.

Potential gold mine

Oakland voters approved and funded a Public Ethics Commission last year with the power to penalize offenders — and now would be an appropriate time for the beefed-up agency to start weighing in with substance on the performance of city governance.

With 40 acres of parking spots and vacant lots, downtown is a potential gold mine. It’s served by three BART stations, more than enough to accommodate major job growth from across the region.

Researchers are absolutely correct in their assessment that economic opportunities abound in downtown Oakland, and it’s a resurgence that bodes well for the entire city and the region.

The looming question is whether city policymakers have the political will, ethical values and objectivity to look past their own personal beliefs and agendas to make the right decisions for the 400,000 residents who live here.

Chip Johnson is a San Francisco Chronicle columnist. His column runs on Tuesday and Friday. E-mail: chjohnson@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @chjohnson