I’ve done the same thing I did last week – calculated how much each effect each game this weekend will have on each team’s chance of making the top eight or the top four. I’m only showing games that have a meaningful total effect, and only showing teams who have a ‘swing’ of 2 percentage points or more.

These estimates are based on simulations using my Elo model. All the simulations were done before Round 22 began.

Note: an earlier version of this post was accidentally made using 5000 simulations instead of the standard 20. The charts have all been replaced with the proper versions. There are only small differences.

how much do this weekend’s games affect teams’ top four chances?

ADELAIDE vs sydney

western bulldogs vs port adelaide

COllingwood vs geelong

gws giants vs west coast eagles

fremantle vs richmond

how much do this weekend’s games affect teams’ top EIGHT chances?

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS PORT ADELAIDE

GWS GIANTS VS WEST COAST EAGLES

GOLD COAST VS ESSENDON

CARLTON VS HAWTHORN

MELBOURNE VS BRISBANE LIONS

ST KILDA VS NORTH MELBOURNE