Chris Murray

cmurray@rgj.com

Preseason prognosticators are high on the Wolf Pack – just not as high as they are on San Diego State.

With kickoff less than 50 days away, magazine racks are flooded with college football hype, predictions and analysis that won’t mean anything in December but give a good gauge of the 2016 expectations.

The consensus – from Athlon to Phil Steele to Sporting News to Lindys – is that the Wolf Pack will finish second in the Mountain West’s West Division behind SDSU, which was perfect in the MW last year and returns a loaded squad that is the consensus team to beat in the West, and perhaps all of the MW.

Unanimously, the Wolf Pack is projected to go to a bowl game – the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is most often listed – but the big question is this: Will it be another nondescript 7-6 season or something better?

Pack alum Sessions an NBA nomad – and loving it

“Nevada’s offense should improve over last year, which will help blunt the significant losses to its defensive front,” Athlon writes in its preview of Nevada’s 2016 season. “Still, the Wolf Pack have too many holes to expect a serious run at a West Division title. Nevada has finished 7-6 in four of the last five seasons, and there is plenty of reasons to believe that history will repeat itself.”

The Wolf Pack returns 10 starters on offense and five on defense, although only one of those five comes on the front seven. After running out inexperienced teams during most of his tenure, fourth-year head coach Brian Polian finally has a veteran squad. Seven seniors are projected to start on offense (11 overall) and Steele ranks Nevada as the 30th most experienced team in the FBS after being ranked 121st in experience (out of 128) last season. The offensive line’s 116 combined starts rank 24th nationally.

Steele is bullish on the offense, projecting Nevada to score 32 points per game after it averaged just 26.2 points per game last year, its lowest figure since 2003. Steele says Nevada’s quarterbacks are the seventh best in the MW (out of 12), the running backs third best, the receivers/tight ends third best and the offensive line first in the conference.

Murray's top 100 local sports figures of 2015-16

“For the offense to truly jell, the experienced offensive line will have to take another step forward, particularly in pass protection,” Athlon writes. “Junior left tackle Austin Corbett anchors the line, but all five projected starters are upperclassmen, a first in the Polian era.”

The Wolf Pack’s offensive staff underwent major change in the offseason. After Nick Rolovich became Hawaii’s head coach, Polian hired Tim Cramsey, from Montana State, to run the offense and coach quarterbacks. Lester Erb moved from running backs to wide receivers. Jonathan Himebauch was hired to coach the offensive line. And Marc Nudelberg was hired as running backs coach/special teams coordinator.

“I’m curious to see what they do,” an opposing MW assistant told Athlon on the condition of anonymity. “The new coordinator runs a different system than they had before with Rolovich.”

Wrote Mel Lawrence’s Playbook.com: “After coping with an offense in decline during each of his three years at the helm, Nevada HC Brian Polian decided a shakeup was in order. New OC Tim Cramsey arrives in Reno after a wildly successful run at Montana State, where he engineered a juggernaut offense that scored 41.9 PPG and ranked third in the FCS, averaging nearly 520 yards of total offense.”

On defense, the questions are less about scheme – there were no changes to the staff in the offseason – and more about personnel as Nevada lost six of its front seven starters, each of whom were multiple-year starters who combined for 178 starts in their careers. Athlon writes defensive coordinator Scott Boone has turned in “an underrated effort” during his first two seasons with the Wolf Pack.

“Nevada’s biggest question mark is replacing its defensive front seven, which has just one returning starter,” Phil Steele writes. “The Wolf Pack gets to avoid both Boise State and Air Force out of the Mountain but have to play San Jose State on the road and also face ex-OC Nick Rolovich on the road.”

The schedule, Steele says, plays in Nevada’s favor. Based on opponent winning percentage from 2015, the Wolf Pack plays the fifth-easiest schedule of 128 FBS teams (Nevada’s 2016 foes went 62-88 last year, a 41.3 percent winning mark). Accounting for his 2016 projections, Steele rates Nevada’s schedule at 110th in the nation. Mel Lawrence’s Playbook.com also believes the Wolf Pack gets a favorable draw.

“The Wolf Pack face only three opponents that owned a winning record last season,” he writes.

The schedule might lack powerhouses – Notre Dame is the big non-conference game – but the early-season travel will be difficult as Nevada plays at Notre Dame, Purdue and Hawaii in a one-month span.

“The Wolf Pack will enjoy playing home games in a refurbished Mackay Stadium, but road trips to Notre Dame and Purdue in September may not be so pleasant,” Sporting News writes.

Two Nevada players received superlatives from the magazines, with defensive tackle Nick Gregg, a freshman from Reed High, being named the MW newcomer of the year by Sporting News, and long snapper Wes Farnsworth, a sophomore from Manogue, named fourth-team All-American by Phil Steele.

Each of the preseason magazines project SDSU, from the West, and Boise State, from the Mountain, to meet in the MW title game. Steele’s projections say both teams will be undefeated in the regular season. By proxy of being placed second in the West Division by the magazines, Nevada seems to be the biggest challenge to the Aztecs’ reign (SDSU’s 10-game winning streak is the FBS’ second-longest active).

But if Nevada is going to upend SDSU and win the West, it will have to play better than it has the last half decade. Sporting News points out Nevada is 32-32 over the last five years. That stat can be taken two ways.

“After averaging 8.5 wins per season between 2005-10, Nevada has averaged 6.4 since,” Athlon writes. “Life could be worse – but it could be better.”