Nevada Democrats aim to retake Assembly

Democrats were shocked with the election results in 2014 when they lost the majority in the Nevada Assembly for the first time in nearly two decades.

Now they are developing their strategy to take back the majority and the power that comes with it in the 2016 general election. Democrats hope to stop the first back-to-back Republican majorities in the lower house since the 1969 and 1971 sessions.

“We are going to just flat-out out-work people,” said Assemblywoman Teresa Benitez-Thompson, D-Reno. “Those are our seats and we are taking them back.”

Democrats also hope to regain the majority in the state Senate after the Republicans' 2014 trifecta: Winning the governor’s office and majorities in both houses of the Legislature.

The loss of the lower house was especially galling. The Assembly had been a Democratic stronghold for decades, except for the 1995 session when both parties had 21 members.

The Democrats’ strategy will concentrate on the nine seats in Clark County they lost in the GOP sweep last year, when low voter turnout flipped traditionally Democratic-held seats.

The “nine on the line” in Las Vegas and Henderson all have Democrat voter-registration advantages, some by wide margins.

“The seats up north are pretty safe,” said Republican Assemblyman David Gardner of Las Vegas, whose District 9 seat is among those targeted by Democrats. “The decision if we do keep it (majority) or not will be decided in Las Vegas. I think we can. It is not going to be easy, by any means.”

Already, two Northern Nevada Republican Assemblymen, Ira Hansen and Randy Kirner, have predicted they will lose the majority.

“Ira, he doesn’t speak for the (GOP Assembly) caucus, but I think we will have to fight for it,” Speaker John Hambrick, R-Las Vegas, said.

Republicans, too, are developing a clear strategy to keep the majority, said Assembly Majority Leader Paul Anderson, R-Las Vegas.

“We have some key districts that we will have to work hard in, but we’ve got 23 seats we’re working in," Anderson said. "There’s a small margin of error but we definitely have a shot at holding the majority.”

Anderson is aware of the Democrats’ targeted seats. He vows to defend them.

“I would be naive to say we are not underdogs in the race, but I would say that is where we work the best,” Anderson said. “You saw during the session that when you tell me I can’t do something, I will find a way to get it done.

“We’ve got a clear path to 22 or 23 seats, even in those Democratic seats,” Anderson said. “We’ve got more infrastructure, better infrastructure than we have had in the past and we will certainly have a lot more funding that we’ve ever had in the past as well, coming out of the accomplishments of the 2015 session.”

‘Low-hanging fruit’

Some Republicans acknowledge that at least three districts will be nearly impossible to defend because of the Democrats’ double-digit voter-registration advantage. Benitez-Thompson referred to districts such as current GOP Assemblyman John Moore’s District 8, Shelly Shelton’s District 10 and Victoria Seamen’s District 34 as “low-hanging fruit.”

“Those three could be very hard" for Republicans to keep, Gardner said. “They would have to run the best elections of their lives and that would just give them a shot.”

District 8 used to belong to former Assemblyman Jason Frierson. Yet he lost by about 40 votes in the GOP sweep of 2014. Frierson has declared his candidacy to take back his seat and has already been endorsed by the Democratic caucus, said caucus leader Irene Bustamante Adams.

Democrats own close to a 4,000-person lead in voter registration in the district.

“Jason Frierson will be a tough opponent,” Hambrick said. “He has been raising money, but he is beatable. He just didn’t run last time; certainly he didn’t put any effort into it.”

Currently, the Republicans hold a 25-17 advantage in the Assembly. If the GOP loses just those three seats, it would continue to keep the majority, 22-20.

That may be the GOP’s best hope, Gardner said.

“If we keep the majority, it will likely be with 22 because those three seats are all have double-digit Democratic advantages, which you know is very hard to beat,” Gardner said.

Yet Democrats also want to grab six more districts in their plan – Victoria Dooling’s seat in District 41, Gardner in District 9, Brent Jones in District 35, Erv Nelson in District 5 and Steve Silberkraus in District 29.

Even Derek Armstrong, R-Las Vegas, who had a major role in crafting legislation of Gov. Sandoval’s $1.4 billion plan of new and extended taxes, has been targeted in District 21. Currently, he has about 2,000 more Democrats than Republicans in his district.

If the Democrats recapture all nine seats, they would have a 26-to-16 majority.

“We are reaching for other seats as well,” Benitez-Thompson said. “We want to make sure we are going in with the strongest majority possible next session because there is a lot of cleanup to do and there are policy fixes that we have to put in place.”

Democrats are dreaming big. Taking 28 seats would give them two-thirds of the floor, a super-majority that could pass tax increases and override a veto from Gov. Brian Sandoval.

“The magic number is always 28,” Benitez-Thompson said.

Besides Frierson, the Democratic caucus has also endorsed Clark County public defender Steve Yeager to run against Gardner in District 9 and Chris Brooks to take on Shelton in District 10.

For the other critical races, Democrats have more candidates than Assembly seats, Bustamante Adams said.

“So we have to do our due diligence and give everybody an opportunity to interview so we can find the best candidate for our team."

Republicans say analysis of some of the “nine on the line” districts show that Democratic voter registration advantages are misleading.

“Look at those districts – district by district,” Anderson said. “We’ve done the analysis. You look at Erv Nelson’s district and the Democrats grossly underperform in that district. It votes a lot more conservative than it is on paper.”

Republican primaries loom

Democrats seem to have more control over who is running for the Assembly under their party’s banner. Republican incumbents face a harder road to get a spot on the 2016 general election ballot.

“Almost every incumbent, certainly on the Republican side, will be having a primary,” Hambrick said. “I will be having a primary so we will just have to wait and see if the voters are satisfied with what I did and with what some of the other people did.”

Hambrick was one of the Republicans who voted for the $1.4 billion plan of new and increased taxes. It marks the largest tax hike in Nevada. Others in targeted districts who also voted for the plan include Gardner, Moore, Nelson and Silberkraus.

Hambrick acknowledges the conservative wing of the GOP may not like re-electing a lawmaker who voted for the tax hike. Yet others might understand Republican lawmakers who voted for the taxes were trying to improve the state’s woeful public education system.

“You are going to have to look at the individual Assembly districts,” Hambrick said. “In my district, for example, I have a lot what the old timers like you and me would call ‘soccer moms.’ I have middle schools and high schools in my district. So education advancement, the bond rollover to build more schools, the early education and focus on reading all give us really strong issues we can talk about.”

Hambrick noted another strong point about the tax increase he can use during campaigning.

“And the thing about these tax increases is the average Nevadans will not see a tax increase,” he said. “Nothing will come out of their pockets.”

Bustamante Adams said her caucus will not let opposing Republicans take credit for the increased funding to education.

“I think half of the picture is missing,” she said of Hambrick’s reasoning. “The legislation we passed has been part of the Democrats’ platform for a long time. But until we got the support of the Executive Branch, we were not able to get that across. Those ideas – like funding and staffing full-day kindergarten, funding for class-size reduction, the Zoom schools – all of those were Democratic ideas from the get-go. So that is why they (Republicans) are a bit short-sighted.”

Anderson doubts the tax increase will cause much debate in the Democrats’ targeted districts.

“During the (GOP) primary, it will be something to explain and help people understand about the investment we needed to make,” Anderson said. “It is a bigger issue up north and in the rurals. But down here (in Las Vegas), folks understand that there was an investment required.”

Dire predictions

Hansen shocked some of his Republican colleagues when he predicted last month the Republicans would lose the majority in the Assembly.

He said it in the context of the possibility of him running for the speaker’s position. Hansen was elected speaker-designate before the 2015 session but resigned after the Reno News & Review published a story that was critical of Hansen’s columns for the Sparks Tribune. The NAACP called Hansen’s writings racist and homophobic.

"If we are in the majority again, I honestly would be shocked," Hansen said last month. "So the odds at me getting a second shot at being speaker is a really long shot. I would be happy to have that opportunity. This time I would be able to overcome any opposition, if I did it."

"I don't intend to run for speaker," he said. "I don't even think in those terms because I don't think we are going to be in the majority. Maybe I shouldn't be so honest, but the way the Republicans behaved in the Assembly, I just do not see us coming back and having that number again.”

Kirner based his prediction that Republicans would lose the majority on the fact that the 2016 election includes a presidential campaign, which usually spikes the number of Democratic voters.

“To be honest with you, in the last election, Democrats hardly came out by comparison to Republicans,” Kirner said on the "Nevada Newsmakers" TV show. “There just was not enough there to ignite their interest and energy. The presidential election will bring out those who didn’t vote last time and we are – much to my chagrin – not a Republican state. Some would call us a purple state or whatever. But the fact of the matter is, there will be a shift.”

The addition of a presidential election is a game-changer, Gardner said. He said his Republican colleagues may see twice the number of voters in their district than they saw in 2014.

“We averaged, in my district, around 40 to 45 percent turnout of registered voters in the last election,” Gardner said. “Based on historical numbers, we usually average about 80 to 85 percent (turnout). So most of us are going to see double the amount of voters in 2016 that we did in 2014.”

Democrat Hillary Clinton may prove tough on Republicans on Election Day, Gardner said.

“Hillary Clinton, her (poll) numbers are not really great right now," Gardner said. "But in the first week in November, if she is really hot and her poll numbers are great and she has enthusiasm in Nevada -- that will hurt.

"But if her numbers are not that great, that helps me.”

Nine on the line

Assembly Democrats are targeting nine Assembly seats they lost in the 2014 election to regain the majority on the lower house of the Legislature. The current Republican lawmakers in those seats include:

Derek Armstrong (District 21) Armstrong helped craft the final $1.4 billion tax plan of the 2015 Legislature. Democrats currently have about 2,000 more registered voters than the GOP in his district.

Victoria Dooling (District 41) Another Republican who currently has about 2,000 more Democrats then Republicans in her district.

David Gardner (District 9) Clark County public defender Steve Yeager will challenge Gardner. Yeager has already been endorsed by Democratic leadership. Another district with about a 2,000-person voter registration advantage for Democrats. Gardner says his race is "in the danger zone."

Brent Jones (District 35) Jones' disadvantage in voter registration is less than 1,600. So who knows?

John Moore (District 8) Democrat Jason Frierson is expected to regain this seat he lost by about 40 votes in 2014. Frierson has currently a 3,600 person advantage in voter registration.

Erv Nelson (District 5) On paper, Democrats have about a 1,800-person advantage in voter registration. But the GOP contends voters in this district vote conservatively.

Victoria Seaman (District 34) Seaman won't run for re-election, opting to run for the state senate instead. Democrats hold almost a 4,000-person edge in voter registration.

Shelly Shelton (District 10) She faces perhaps the toughest road to re-election. Democrats hold a voter-registration edge of more than 5,000.

Steve Silberkraus (District 29). He'll be tough to beat. The Democrats' current voter-registration lead is less than 800.

Sources: Nevada Legislature, Nevada Secretary of State.