GOP political insiders have been slow to hop aboard the Donald Trump train. But after Trump’s victories in three of the four early-nominating states, Republicans now see him as the party’s most likely nominee in the general election.

That’s according to members of The POLITICO Caucus – a panel of operatives, strategists and activists in a number of states, including some new to the Caucus.

For the first time, the Caucus has expanded to include insiders in a handful of states that will play a pivotal role in the nominating process over the next three-and-a-half weeks: Virginia (March 1), Florida (March 15), North Carolina (March 15) and Ohio (March 15). The Caucus expansion will ultimately give POLITICO a regular, on-the-ground look at what’s happening in the key states that will pick the next president this year.


The vast majority of Republican insiders in the four new states, plus South Carolina, where Democrats will vote on Saturday to round out the month’s early primaries, pick Trump as the GOP’s most likely nominee. More than four-in-five Republicans surveyed this week said Trump has the best chance to win the nomination, with only Marco Rubio (17 percent) and John Kasich (2 percent) earning support from other respondents.

In fact, majorities of insiders in three of the four upcoming March states – Florida, North Carolina and Virginia – said Trump would win those primaries if they were held today. Only in Ohio did another candidate – Kasich, the sitting governor – emerge on top on this question.

A number of insiders asserted that, by easily winning the last three contests – in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada – Trump has a stranglehold on the nomination. And the only reason why he hasn’t already been anointed as the presumptive nominee, they said, was the strong opposition to his candidacy.

“Replace Trump with any other name and politician, and we wouldn't even be having this conversation,” said one Virginia Republican, who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “Trump continues to be a heat-seeking missile in the GOP, blowing up every obstacle in his way.”

“Momentum is incredible,” said a North Carolina Republican, who added that there would have to be “a black swan event somewhere to derail him.”

A handful of Republicans held out hope that Rubio could stalk Trump in the upcoming primaries and surpass him as the field winnows.

“It's still possible for Trump to fall short and, if he does, it will be to Rubio,” an Ohio Republican said.

“He can tread water and hope for a Trump implosion, or in the … rarest of scenarios a brokered convention,” a Florida Republican added. “He just has to stay relevant in the electoral long game.”

But with Rubio, Kasich, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson sticking around until at least Super Tuesday, some Republicans indicated that the splintered field would allow Trump to sail through to the nomination.

“Republicans could stop Trump if they could all agree on one person to run solo against him,” said a South Carolina Republican. “Alas, that won't happen – and Donald Trump (!) is your GOP nominee. That sound you hear is Abraham Lincoln spinning in his grave.”

Here are some other takeaways from this week’s survey:

Hillary Clinton is poised for a big win in South Carolina.

South Carolina insiders were nearly unanimous in their predictions for Saturday’s Democratic primary: Clinton, who has a big lead in the polls, will defeat Bernie Sanders in the first-in-the-South primary.

And insiders are expecting Clinton to win big, especially by running up large margins among African Americans, who made up a majority of the Democratic primary vote in 2008.

“It's not going to be close,” said a Democrat. “And it may very well be over 20 points.”

In fact, fully half said a 20-point-plus margin was the most likely scenario.

“You can feel a momentum shift both on the ground and in the media toward Clinton,” a Republican said. “Assuming the black vote goes monolithically for her, it's easy to see how she gets past 60 [percent].”

Democrats don’t think a loss in South Carolina closes the book on Sanders, but the end is near.

Even if Clinton wins big over Sanders on Saturday, insiders say the former secretary of state hasn’t locked up the nomination yet. Sixty percent said the fight for the nomination won’t be effectively over after Saturday, compared to 40 percent who said it would.

But many who said Clinton won’t sew up the nod in South Carolina said Sanders was falling out of contention.

“When Hillary wins Super Tuesday,” a South Carolina Democrat said, “the primary is over.”

“While not over, [South Carolina] will certainly signal the end,” added one North Carolina Democrat. “Sanders will take a page out of the Rubio playbook and declare his loss in South Carolina a great victory. It will be much harder for Sanders to make that claim after the March 1 primaries, although I expect him to keep slugging it out. The ‘end’ will be March 15.”

Some Democrats asserted that Sanders’ fundraising – which outpaced Clinton’s in January – would keep him in the game for the upcoming gauntlet of primaries.

“Hillary will have continued momentum,” added a Florida Democrat, “but with Bernie having raised a sizable amount of money in January and February, he can continue the race through at least Super Tuesday and likely March 15.”

A number of Republicans, meanwhile, insisted that the continuing investigation into Clinton’s home-brew email server while secretary of state could doom her chances at the nomination.

“She should be indicted,” said a North Carolina Republican. A Florida Republican added: “[The] Justice department [is] going to make Hillary really feel the Bern.”

But a handful of Democrats said Sanders' end came last week in Nevada after Clinton defeated him in the caucuses there.

“The Democratic primary is already over, even if Bernie's supporters fail to realize it,” said a Florida Democrat. “As a Clinton '08 supporter, I know that feeling well and it's going to feel WAY worse come the long, long, demographically challenging month of March.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Gary R. Smith, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Florida: Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, April Schiff, Ashley Walker, Ben Pollara, Beth Matuga, Brian E. Crowley, Chris Korge, Christian Ulvert, Damien Filer, David Johnson, Dennis Baxley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Nuender, Eric Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Fernand R. Amandi, Fred Menachem, Gus Corbella, Jacki Lee, Jessica D. Ehrlich, Joe Mobley, John Dowless, Jon Mills, Joseph Falk, Justin Day, Kelly Cohen, Kevin Cate, Kevin Sweeny, Marian Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Marty Fiorentino, Max Steele, Nelson Diaz, Nick Iarossi, Pamela Burch Fort, Rich Heffley, Rick Wilson, Roger Stone, Ronald L. Book, Scott Arceneaux, Slater Bayliss, Steve Schale, Steven Vancore, Susan A. MacManus, Tim Baker, Wayne Bertsch

North Carolina: Anita S. Earls, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charles Wallin, Christopher Sgro, Douglas Wilson, Dylan Frick, Francis X. De Luca, Jonathan Felts, Melissa Reed, Michael Luethy, Paul Shumaker, Ray Martin, Robin Hayes, Tami Fitzgerald, Thomas Mills

Ohio: Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Damareo Cooper, David Pepper, Erica Bruton, Greg Beswick, Ian James, Janet Carson, Jo Ann Davidson, Kathy DiCristofaro, Mark R. Weaver, Martha Clark, Matt Borges, Melissa Klide Hedden, Michael Gonidakis, Mike Dawson, Molly Shack, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, Tim Burke

Virginia: Abbi Easter, Bob Marshall, Brian Coy, Carolyn Fiddler, Chris LaCivita, Doris Crouse-Mays, Frank Leone, Gaylene Kanoyton, Janet Carver, Jeannemarie Devoltes Davis, Jo Thoburn, Joe Fitzgerald, John Crosgrove, John Findlay, Marc Broklawski, Michael Farris, Pete Snyder, Sandra Brandt, Steve Stombres, Sue Langley, Susan J. Rowland, Tom Davis, Tucker Martin

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

