In the last post we had some fun imagining what the last season of beach volleyball would have looked like on Netflix. I love the stories surrounding beach volleyball, but if you have been following this blog for a while, you know I also like looking at the numbers. That’s what the Doing the Math series is all about.

Over the next three posts, we’ll be Doing the Math to answer three important questions about the US women’s Olympic qualification race. The questions for these posts are:

Have April and Alix already clinched the Olympics? How do the teams fighting for the second spot compare? Is it too late for Sara Hughes and Lauren Fendrick?

Can April and Alix be caught?

April Ross and Alix Klineman have 8,760 points and are currently second overall in the Olympic rankings. Olympic rules allow a maximum of two teams from any country to compete in Tokyo. So the real question is, can two American teams overtake them in the next six months?

Olympic ranking points are based on a team’s 12 best finishes during the Olympic qualification period. Once teams have played 12 tournaments, new points earned in a tournament are not added in their entirety to the total but only replace the team’s 12th best result. This is a very important concept in the race for Tokyo. It can be a bit confusing, so if you want a more thorough explanation, check out this post.

Kerri Walsh Jennings blocks April Ross in Gstaad last summer. Is it possible for Kerri to block her old partner’s way to Tokyo in 2020? Photo by FIVB.

Other Americans’ Dreams

The two teams closest to April & Alix are Kerri Walsh Jennings & Brooke Sweat and Kelly Claes & Sarah Sponcil. If it is possible for two teams to catch the leaders, it will have to be them. Let’s start by looking at just how much ground they have to make up.

Alix and April Kerri and Brooke Kelly and Sarah Points 8,760 6,960 6,640 Points behind - 1,800 2,120

Kerri and Brooke have to make up an 1,800 point gap and Kelly and Sarah find themselves 2,120 points behind. You are right if you are thinking that is a lot of points. Let’s see if it is even mathematically possible.

Step 1 – No more points for April and Alix

Even if Ross and Klineman have a terrible spring, the can’t lose any of their 8,760 points. So, for this little experiment we have to assume they will do no better than 5th place in any four-star tournaments and finish 17th in Rome. Based on their form last year, that is extremely unlikely and bad news for the teams trying to catch them. Let’s assume that happens and look at the second unlikely scenario needed for April and Alix to miss Tokyo.

Step 2 – Win, win, win (and win some more)

This interactive table shows how the three teams we are looking at got their top 12 finishes. Just click on the team you are interested viewing. Kerri & Brooke’s lowest results in their top 12 are worth 480 points each. They scored 480 points many times; 17th place in Vienna and Rome (5-star tournaments), 5th place in four different 4-star tournaments and 3rd place in two 3-stars. Kelly and Sarah have a couple of 400 point results plus five 480 point finishes in their top 12. Alix and April also have some 480 point results counting in their rankings, but they’ve got a 2nd in the world championships (1440 points) and a gold at Gstaad (1200 points) that push them miles ahead of their rivals. 800 points is the top result for the two chasing teams.

For both teams to make up the huge gap they’d have to be the best two teams in the world over the coming six months. Alix and April will only miss out on Tokyo if Kerri & Brooke and Kelly and Sarah go 1 – 2 in Rome and each of the teams win 4 four-stars a piece. Since there are only 9 four-stars left on the table, America winning eight of them is a pretty tall order. This table shows the required replacement points for Alix and April to miss out.

Kerri and Brooke Kelly and Sarah Top 12 Tournaments Results Current Needed Current Needed 1 800 1080 800 1200 2 720 800 720 800 3 640 800 720 800 4 640 800 600 800 5 600 800 600 800 6 560 800 480 800 7 540 720 480 720 8 540 640 480 720 9 480 640 480 600 10 480 600 480 600 11 480 560 400 480 12 480 540 400 480 Total 6960 8780 6640 8800

The Rome points would give the challengers 1200 and 1080 points respectively, plus four additional 800 point hauls. With those amazing finishes, Kelly and Sarah will end up with 8800 points and Kerri and Brooke will edge out Alix and April with 8780 points. And if Alix and April manage to have one finish worth more than 480 points, then even an amazing spring like this won’t be enough for both teams.

Sarah Sponcil and Kelly Claes celebrate a huge win in the Portugal semi-finals. They will need even better results than this many, many times for April and Alix to miss out. Photo by FIVB.

Conclusion – They’re in!

While it isn’t mathematically impossible for April and Alix to miss out, it is about as close to that as it comes. Therefore, the Beach Volley Blog is officially calling the US women’s 2020 Olympic qualification race for April and Alix! Congratulations you two and good luck in Tokyo!

That means there is only place left for the other American teams. In the next post we’ll look at the numbers surrounding Kerri, Brook, Kelly and Sarah’s chances and add Kelley Larsen and Emily Stockman to the mix.

Until then, I hope you can all get out on the sand and enjoy a few games yourselves this weekend.