EU referendum polling suggests new rifts that bypass class and political leanings may leave the UK more divided than before

British politics is at risk of descending into US-style “culture wars”, according to a new study of the forces that led to the vote to leave the European Union on 23 June.

Analysis of a range of polling and survey data by the independent National Centre for Social Research and thinktank the UK in a Changing Europe has found that the issues driving the voters’ decision to back Brexit cut across social classes and traditional party lines.

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US politics has been gripped in recent years by what have become known as “culture wars” – between laid-back, internationalist liberals and defenders of the more socially conservative values that helped sweep Donald Trump to the White House.

Kirby Swales, the author of the new report, Understanding the Leave Vote, says the referendum campaign, in which anti-immigration sentiment was an important factor, exposed a series of divides in British society. His research, based on surveys of voters throughout the referendum campaign and afterwards, identifies three distinct groups that voted to leave the EU.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The study drew parallels between the Brexit vote, and the socially conservative voter base that won Donald Trump the election. Photograph: EPA

As well as the economically “left behind”, whom Westminster politicians sometimes see as the prime movers behind the Brexit vote, there were “affluent Eurosceptics”, somewhat anti-immigration but also anti-welfare; and the “older working classes” – perhaps not struggling to make ends meet, but still concerned about the changing nature of society.

“The EU referendum was highly divisive, highlighting a wide range of social, geographical and other differences in Great Britain. This was less a traditional left-right battle, and more about identity and values. It is a strong sign that the so-called ‘culture wars’ of the US have arrived in Great Britain in earnest,” the report says.

A September survey that split voters according to their beliefs on a series of social issues found that 66% of those whose values could be characterised as “authoritarian”, and just 18% of those who were “libertarian”, backed Brexit.

“Authoritarians” are defined as those more likely to back a series of statements including “for some crimes, the death penalty is the most appropriate sentence” and “young people today don’t have enough respect for traditional British values”.

When looked at on a left-right political scale, 53% of those on the right and 50% of those on the left voted leave. “This suggests that this debate might be increasingly decided by views on acceptable social behaviour and moral fairness, rather than redistribution and the role of the state,” said the study.

That may be an echo of the vicious debate about social values that characterised the US presidential debate. One study found that voters’ answer to the question, “is it more important for a child to be considerate or well-mannered?” was a better predictor of whether they would support Trump than their income level, for example.

The Brexit analysis also points out that differential turnout affected the result, with leave voters more likely to go to the polls.



The remain camp fought hard to convince the public that voting to leave the EU would be risky for the economy, with a blitz of Treasury-backed documents and interventions from experts, including Bank of England governor Mark Carney and International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde. However, the study suggests they failed to persuade even those voters who said they backed remain before the campaign to turn out and vote. As many as 19% of remain supporters didn’t make it to the polling booth, compared with 11% of those leaning towards a vote for leave.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The leave vote was supported by three groups: the economically ‘left behind’, affluent Eurosceptics, and the older working class. Photograph: Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images

The economy was considered the most important factor driving the vote, cited by 21% of voters, while 20% mentioned immigration. But people were more convinced by the idea that leaving the EU would cut immigration (66%) than that it would “make Britain’s economy worse off” (43%).



That may have driven the fact that remain supporters appear to have been less motivated to turn out. “Two points stand out from our analysis. The first is that the EU referendum attracted a new set of voters and they were more likely to vote leave. The second is that the remain vote clearly softened during the campaign,” said the report.

The strong stance taken by some anti-EU newspapers, including the Sun and the Daily Mail, also appears to have been important. “When it came to the EU referendum vote, people were more likely to follow the position of the newspaper they read than the political party they identify with,” the study claims. According to the research, 70% of Sun readers and 66% of Mail readers backed leave, while just 9% of Guardian readers did so.

The sources used in the study include the authoritative British Social Attitudes Survey and the British Election Study.