Public transit was shaping up to have a banner year in 2020 — from a tax proposal to massively expand bus and trolley service to the unveiling of a vision for an entirely new commuter rail system.

Now those efforts could be, at least temporarily, derailed as a result of the coronavirus pandemic that continues to grip California and much of the world. The reality stings all the more since bus and trolley ridership in San Diego had been climbing in recent months, bucking a years-long trend impacting systems nationwide.

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Rather than campaigning for costly upgrades, transit officials have now been scrambling just to keep buses and trolleys scrubbed down and operating, as ridership plummets and fare revenue dwindles. The San Diego region has so far managed to avoid major catastrophes, like in New York where dozens of transit workers have died and thousands more fallen ill with the virus.



Maintenance workers with the San Diego Metropolitan Transit System use disinfectant to clean the door buttons on a trolley stopping at the 12th and Imperial Transit Center in downtown San Diego. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Still, that vigilance means a $24-billion plan to dramatically expand bus and rail service, which the San Diego Metropolitan Transit System has dubbed ElevateSD, may end up falling victim to the outbreak.

“ElevateSD is on hold as we all work together to get through this trying time and ensure the safety and health of all our transit users and workers,” said county Supervisor Nathan Fletcher, who also chairs the MTS board.

Likewise, top officials with the San Diego Association of Governments, or SANDAG, have said the government planning agency will wait until the pandemic subsides to release a highly anticipated and potentially controversial $100-billion blueprint for modernizing the region’s transportation system.

Officials said agency staff continue to work on designs for a completely new high-speed public transit system, including several large stations, or mobility hubs — most notably a San Diego Grand Central in the Midway District.


While SANDAG’s long-range plan doesn’t have to be completed for another roughly 18 months, MTS’s vision could be fundamentally disrupted if the coronavirus persists through the summer.

The transit agency spent the last year designing and promoting ElevateSD, which would require voters to approve a half-cent sales tax increase. Officials planned to place a measure on the November ballot in order to capitalize on increased voter turnout expected during the presidential election.

“At some point in the near future, the board of directors will have to assess the viability of considering a ballot measure in light of the impacts of COVID-19.” San Diego County Supervisor Nathan Fletcher

The tax measure’s draft spending blueprint currently includes everything from new bus routes to free fares for youth to a trolley extension to the San Diego International Airport. The agency has even proposed building a tram to shuttle commuters between University City and Sorrento Valley, floating workers over often-gridlocked Interstates 5 and 805.

However, securing the two-thirds voter approval required for such a tax increase could now prove extremely difficult considering the widespread unemployment and economic upheaval the region currently faces. Even before the pandemic, MTS polling suggested the ambitious proposal was falling just shy of the voter support needed to become law.

The agency now has until early August to submit its official language for the tax measure to the county Registrar of Voters in order to qualify for the November ballot.

“At some point in the near future, the board of directors will have to assess the viability of considering a ballot measure in light of the impacts of COVID-19,” Fletcher said.

Adding to the uncertainty of such a measure passing is the potential of the coronavirus raising fears about riding transit, even if the economic impacts of the pandemic start to taper off.

“If you were an opponent of public transit finance, could you pounce on COVID as a new talking point to try to derail a ballot initiative?” asked Michael Manville, a professor of urban planning at UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs. “Yeah,” he answered, “and I wouldn’t be surprised if someone takes a shot at that.”



An essential service

While transit ridership has plummeted, buses and trolleys continue to provide a crucial lifeline for many San Diegans, from grocery store clerks to hospital workers.


MTS and the North County Transit District have announced service cuts, largely to try to prevent a wave of infections among drivers and other workers, but also to save money in the face of declining fare revenue.

MTS has decreased frequency on a number of bus routes and the Blue Line Trolley, while NCTD has suspended all Coaster service on the weekends and significantly scaled back the number of commuter trains that run during the week.

Still, transit continues to operate as an essential service for many San Diegans.

On Wednesday morning, sparsely packed buses lined up at the Old Town Transit Center as riders wearing face masks sat silently, keeping a wide berth of each other. Trolley cars rolled in and out on a nearby platform, picking up and unloading perhaps a dozen riders at any given time.

The idea that the opportunistic virus could be lurking within close proximity, perhaps in any of the perfectly healthy-looking transit riders at the station that morning, charged the scene with a quiet macabre.

On Wednesday April 8, 2020, Lissa Baker transfers from the trolley to a bus at the Old Town Transit Center during her daily commute from her home in Chula Vista to her job in the Sports Arena neighborhood of San Diego. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Lissa Baker walked off the Green Line Trolley and over to catch a bus headed to Sports Area Boulevard where she works at a fast-food restaurant. Through a face mask she explained that she has a car but isn’t ready to give up her daily 45-minute commute by transit.

“I’m not there yet in my head,” said the 49-year-old. “I’m just trying to take precautions and stay safe.”

Baker said she can tell that MTS has ramped up efforts to keep buses and trolley cars clean. Most of the time, she said, passengers keep at least 6 feet apart, but sometimes in the evening cars can still get a bit crowded.

“Everybody’s pretty good with the social distancing,” she said. “It’s sometimes a little challenging, but I notice that our citizens do speak up, like ‘Move, you’re too close.’”


Christian Murphy, 41, who was waiting for a bus to the hospital where he works as an orderly, described riding transit as “not that bad.” He said that’s especially true compared to his job, where “it’s chaos” and “everyone’s scared of getting sick.”

Running on empty

MTS and NCTD have seen 60 to 70 percent declines in daily ridership, dramatically reducing fare revenue and straining budgets. That’s especially troubling for San Diego’s local transit agencies because they get nearly 40 percent of their budgets from ticket sales.

They’re not alone. Many transit agencies around the country, much like local governments, are frantically reviewing budgets amid falling revenue. There are also concerns that even if people are allowed to go back to work, many commuters may be wary of transit, especially in the short term.

“The picture does not look good for transit really for the foreseeable future,” said Ethan Elkind, director of the climate program at UC Berkeley’s Center for Law, Energy and the Environment. “People may have to practice social distancing pretty much up until we get a vaccine for this or the virus winds its course.”

Passengers at the Old Town Transit Center on Wednesday April 8, 2020 wait for a bus to depart. Transit ridership throughout the San Diego region has declined sharply in response to the coronavirus pandemic. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)

As part of the federal stimulus package, SANDAG expects to receive roughly $325 million to distribute to MTS and NCTD. The money is expected to go a long way toward helping to keep essential transit services running.

However, many economists worry that if social-distancing mandates continue for several more months, the economic fallout could be prolonged. That could cause a second wave of trouble for transit agencies, as well as SANDAG.

A huge chunk of the region’s funding for transportation is dependent on an existing half-cent sales tax, known as transnet, extended by voters in 2004. If the local economy slides into a prolonged recession, that funding could take a hard hit.

“The problem we run into is if this continues to go longer or if the nation or the world is thrown into something that’s like the Great Recession, where we have fundamental changes in the economy,” said SANDAG Chief Economist Ray Major.


Major and his team are now feverishly tracking the local economy, trying to predict the potential economic toll of the pandemic.

The transnet sales tax was already facing a decline of billions of dollars over its 40-year life as more people shop online and spend larger shares of their monthly income on housing and health care costs. That has compounded fears that an economic downturn could significantly hurt its ability to raise revenue.

By the same token, any new sales taxes, such as MTS’s proposed ElevateSD plan, could also pull in significantly less funding than previously anticipated. Going forward, transit agencies may need to revise their estimates for how much a new levy will really pay for, at least in the short term.