But managing a Greek exit could prompt the ECB to adopt measures that move towards fiscal integration of the euro area.

AP/Michael Probst

The Eurasia Group's Mujtaba Rahman suggested in a recent note that dealing with a Grexit could force the ECB to take important steps towards financial integration, the very steps it has refused to take so far, in order to maintain euro area stability:

In such circumstances, our view is that the ECB would essentially undertake a two-pronged strategy: in the first instance, it would support the Greek banking system while also undertaking large scale SMP interventions in other at-risk sovereigns (the potential for an OSI down the road on the ECB's SMP could also be contemplated to overcome the problem of subordination). The financial support to at-risk sovereigns would also be complemented by a political statement that commits the ECB to an explicit lender of last resort function (given it would be necessary for the market to attach credibility to the ECB's actions). However, in order to support Greece in this way, the ECB's governing council would look for some form of guarantee that Greece's exit is-to the extent possible-part of a managed process. Indeed, while such a situation could also merit the introduction of joint and several Euro bills for issuing short term debt for all countries bar those in a program (for example countries have access to a fund that issues short term debt as long as they comply with SGP norms), this would most probably still be unlikely.