5. Long-term immigration to the UK for work has fallen to its lowest level since 2014

Immigration to the UK for work-related reasons was an estimated 231,000 in the year ending September 2018. This follows a fall in the number of EU citizens arriving to work.

In contrast, the overall number of people arriving in the UK to study has increased to 217,000, with non-EU student immigration at its highest level since 2011.

The decrease in work-related immigration over the last two years can be largely accounted for by the recent fall in the number of EU citizens arriving with a definite job and the previous fall in the number of EU citizens looking for work (Figure 6). This contrasts with the rise in non-EU citizens arriving with a definite job.

Figure 6: EU citizens coming to the UK for work continue to decrease

EU and non-EU long-term immigration trends for work-related reasons, UK, year ending December 2008 to year ending September 2018

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In the year ending September 2018, an estimated 70,000 EU citizens arrived in the UK with a definite job. This was down from peak levels seen in 2016 and 2017, bringing the number back to a level that was last seen in 2013.

The number of EU citizens coming to the UK looking for work has stabilised over the last year, with an estimated 34,000 arriving in the year ending September 2018. This follows a fall from a peak in 2016.

Foreign citizens require a National Insurance number (NINo) to work in the UK and NINo registration data can be used to provide another view of work-related immigration. For EU citizens, International Passenger Survey (IPS) and NINo data continue to follow a similar trend with both sources showing a decrease since the year ending December 2016.

The number of EU nationals working in the UK has fallen

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also produces estimates of the labour market activity of the resident population in the UK by nationality and country of birth.

The most recent labour market statistics show that there was a fall in the number of EU citizens working in the UK, with a rise in non-EU citizens working in the UK.

For the period October to December 2018, the latest estimates from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show that:

there were an estimated 2.27 million EU nationals working in the UK, 61,000 fewer than for a year earlier

there were an estimated 1.29 million non-EU nationals working in the UK, 130,000 more than for a year earlier

While an increase can be seen for non-EU nationals in employment over the latest year, the longer time series from the LFS shows that the number of non-EU nationals working in the UK has remained broadly stable over the last few years.

! The number of migrants working in the UK is not a measure of how many people migrate to work. The best measure of total migration flows into and out of the UK is the Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) estimates.

Figure 7: Non-EU citizens coming to the UK to work remains stable in recent years

Non-EU work-related long-term immigration trends by data source, UK, year ending December 2008 to year ending September 2018

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Looking at all available sources (Figure 7), by comparing the IPS with work visas and NINos we can see that immigration of non-EU citizens for work has remained broadly stable since 2015 following a small increase. This follows a steady fall from the early to mid-2000s.

Although non-EU immigration for work has remained fairly stable since 2015, available sources show that there has been an increase in Asian citizens arriving for work over the last year. IPS estimates show an increase in Asian citizens arriving with a definite job, while the most comparable Home Office visa data also show an increase in work visa grants. There was a particular increase in work visas granted to Indian nationals.

There was also an increase in the number of Certificates of Sponsorship used in applications for Tier 2 (Skilled) work in the human health and social work sector (up 54% in 2018), resulting from the removal of highly-skilled doctors and nurses from the Tier 2 visa cap.