

A new London Economics market study commissioned by the X Prize Foundation indicates that commercial opportunities at the moon will be worth billions of dollars in the decades ahead.

“With an overall estimated market value in the 10 years directly following the competition of US$1.9 billion, and $6.4 billion over the 25 year longer term, it is clear that the Google Lunar XPRIZE presents a very significant incentive for teams to organize themselves to pursue and capture the various commercial opportunities that they can access,” the study states.

“It is clear that the GLXP awards serve as significant monetary incentives to attract teams of individuals and companies from around the world to embark on the challenge of achieving a commercial lunar mission, but the real payoff will come from the commercial opportunities that follow in the short, medium and long‐term after the GLXP mission has been completed, in a newly created commercial cislunar/lunar mission market,” according to the report.

The study divides commercial opportunities into three categories: established, emergent, and future. These are shown in the table below.



“The most readily accessible commercial opportunities for GLXP teams to address with the capabilities developed in a successful GLXP mission are the supply of ‘traditional’ products and services. Some of these established markets could be addressable immediately (e.g. sales of scientific and technical data) whereas others will entail some lead time (e.g. spacecraft sales),” according to the report.



London Economics found that governments would dominate the market during the first decade, with the rise of the private and third-party sectors over the long term.

“Whilst the market will initially be driven by public sector customers (56% of the US$1.9 billion market at 10 years), the private and third sector will increase in significance (68% of the US$6.4 billion at 25 years) to outstrip public sector demand over the longer time period,” the report states.

The table below shows the estimated market values for the commercial opportunities open to Google Lunar XPRIZE teams for the 10 year period stretching from 2016 to 2025 and over a 25-year period (2016‐40). The Google Lunar X Prize expires at the end of 2015.



“It is hoped that the study outputs might serve to secure the continued commitment of the 21 registered GLXP teams (correct at the time of writing), financiers, partners, sponsors and anchor customers, as well as assist them in attracting additional funding from angel investors, venture capitalists and other private sources (e.g. advance service deals and orders, sponsors),” the report states.

Read the GLXP-Market-Study-2013-Final-Oct13 media summary.