Wisconsin represents Santorum's last chance for a crucial Midwestern victory. 5 things to watch in today's primaries

It’s either the beginning of the end, or more of the same, depending on which candidate is talking.

But tonight’s trifecta of primaries in which 98 delegates are at stake — in Wisconsin, Maryland and Washington, D.C. — come at a crucial point in the 2012 Republican primary race.


They will almost certainly push Mitt Romney past the 600-delegate mark, according to most press counts. As for Rick Santorum, Wisconsin represents his last chance for a crucial Midwestern victory and a loss there could hobble his campaign headed into his home state of Pennsylvania on April 24.

Below are POLITICO’s five things to watch on primary night.

1) The margin of victory

It’s not a novel idea, but it’s an important one. If Santorum ekes out a win over Romney, it will be a surprise, come-from-behind victory in the last Midwestern state where the Pennsylvanian has a shot. It’s a coup that would be very unlikely to change the outcome of the GOP race, but which would certainly make it hard for the front-runner to declare game over.

If Romney wins, as he’s expected to do, the question will be his margin.

“Is he going to get double digits?” said Charlie Sykes, a well-known and highly-influential conservative radio host in Wisconsin.

With support from Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Ron Johnson, Romney has, he noted, “the entire conservative infrastructure of the state…that ought to be very influential with the primary voters.”

Romney also enjoys as “favorable a climate among conservatives as he could have had there,” Sykes said, given what he described as the “pragmatic, principled conservative electorate” within the base — as well as a lack of any real “Stop Romney” movement on state talk radio.

Throughout the GOP primary contest, Romney has struggled with “very conservative” voters, as well as evangelicals. Faring well with that group of the base would help to ease lingering concerns about him, especially after getting behind him in recent days the state’s best-known tea party leaders.

And a large margin of victory would deal a potentially dangerous blow to Santorum ahead of the April 24 primary in his home state. The infection could spread to Santorum’s poll numbers there, something that Romney’s camp is hoping for, and would help the front-runner start finally trying to bring down the curtain on the primary battle Wednesday.

2) The fight for the Milwaukee suburbs

Waukesha County in the Milwaukee suburbs remains one of the bellwethers that almost every Republican and reporter cites as a must-watch on election night. Simply put, it’s the county that’s the likeliest indicator of whether Romney or Santorum will emerge as the victor.

To that end, Craig Gilbert, of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, wrote over the weekend about the key role that Milwaukee, Green Bay and the Milwaukee suburbs will play in the primary race.

In addition to Waukesha, there are also Washington and Ozaukee counties. The three are major Republican suburbs of Milwaukee.

If Santorum is down by more than 10 points in those suburbs, it will be hard for him to make it up in the less-populous rural areas of the state, according to one Wisconsin GOP insider. As for Milwaukee and Green Bay, they make up about two-thirds of the Republican electorate statewide and are the two major media markets in which Romney and his super PAC have been investing heavily.

Another reason the suburbs are worth watching? As Gilbert wrote, “If Romney wins those base counties by significant margins, it would be a telling accomplishment, because these counties are less moderate, less affluent and more socially conservative than the white-collar suburbs Romney won so easily in Illinois two weeks ago.”

Demographics have been the best predictor of performance for both Romney and Santorum throughout the primary cycle, but the front-runner has been making inroads with some of the GOP subgroups that have been traditionally less friendly to his candidacy. Santorum, however, has not.

3) Will turnout be higher than in 2008?

The Republican primary is widely seen as the stepchild in the statewide elections as it has generated far less interest than the June 5 Gov. Scott Walker recall fight.

Yet the primary provides an early test run of sorts for Republicans ahead of that fight, one where turnout will be key as unions make a push to get a signature win by forcing Walker out of office.

Turnout has also been low in a number of GOP primaries, prompting political watchers to speculate there is dampened enthusiasm for the 2012 election and the Republican candidates.

Some veteran Wisconsin Republicans predict turnout will be slightly higher than in 2008, when John McCain thrashed Mike Huckabee in the state. If not, it will add another scrap to the narrative that there is an GOP excitement gap ahead of the general election.

Also worth watching? How many Democrats turn out — and who they vote for. Wisconsin has an open primary, but, according to Republicans watching the race, there is no evidence of any organized effort to boost Democratic turnout in a bid to cause havoc. Yet if Romney does fairly well with any Democrats who do show up at the polls, it would help the Republican push his argument that he can appeal to moderates in the fall.

4) Newt Gingrich’s percentage

The former House speaker is no longer running what he — or anyone — would call a “conventional” campaign. At this point, it looks more like a near-suspended campaign, as he travels selectively and makes a play for the delegates who will head to Tampa in August.

The strategy has raised hackles from Republicans and Democrats alike, but it’s clear that Gingrich wants to have some impact on the party as the race draws to a close.

Yet it will be hard for Gingrich to forcefully argue that his ideas should be accounted for if he scores in the low single digits in April’s remaining primaries.

Gingrich has campaigned in Maryland, a neighbor state to his home turf of McLean, Va., while Wisconsin has not been a major part of his calculus, save for sporadic events and some minor help from his supportive super PAC. But he needs to get close to double digits to continue to press on and justify media attention.

5) The delegate take by Romney and Santorum

There are 98 delegates at stake in the three states voting today - 42 in Wisconsin, 37 in Maryland and 19 in Washington, D.C. Of that group, Romney is probably going to take 19 straight away, since the nation’s capital has a winner-take-all primary, and Santorum isn’t even on the ballot there.

The statewide winner in Wisconsin will get 18 delegates, and the rest will be divided by congressional district. Maryland’s delegate haul will be largely determined by congressional district victories.

But if Romney is able to amass a clear majority from the three contests, he’ll easily hurtle north of the 600-delegate mark according to most tallies and be able to persuasively argue that the race is moving in one clear direction.

Denying Romney delegates has become the name of the game, and to the extent Romney scores easy victories on Tuesday, all the better for him. Santorum and Gingrich could still deny Romney the magic number of 1,144 — the amount of delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination — meaning they have a case to make for continuing, however difficult it may be. But Romney has every incentive and hope of emerging with a delegate stockpile tonight.