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A new poll reveals that more than half of all senior voters say that they definitely will not vote for Trump in 2020.

Seniors Have Turned Against Trump

Trump beat Hillary Clinton by eight points with seniors (53%-45%) in 2016, which was lower than seniors support of Romney over Obama in 2012 (56%-44%). Trump’s support with seniors has totally flipped. It has gone from 52% support to 53% definitely not voting for him in 2020.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll found this stunning nugget:

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Republicans have banked on seniors being more conservative and outperforming their nominee’s approval rating. Trump is doing worse with seniors than his overall approval rating. The thirty-four percent who say that they will definitely vote for him is less than the 37%-40% range that Trump approval has settled into.

If Trump Loses Seniors, He Loses The White House

Republicans have intentionally focused their voter suppression efforts on younger people and minorities because those are the two growing groups of voters who tend to vote Democratic. The Republican Party has gone older, whiter, and more rural under Trump. Republicans need seniors to win. If voters over age 65 support Trump in smaller numbers, Republicans will lose the White House, the Senate, and Democrats will keep the House.

There is plenty of time for these numbers to shift, but if Democrats nominate a candidate who seniors feel comfortable with, Donald Trump could be headed for a historic defeat in 2020.