After graduating from Sydney University in arts and law Burke went to work for the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees' Association where he spent six years as an organiser before being elected to the NSW Legislative Council at the age of 33. After less than a year in State Parliament he won the red-ribbon federal seat of Watson in western Sydney. In 2007, just three years after entering Parliament, he became a federal minister.

At 44, he is still youthful in political terms but has plenty of experience. He served in the ministry for the entire six years of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd governments. Though Burke supported Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd declined to accept his resignation after Gillard was deposed and kept him in the ministry, a telling detail.

Burke has been among the best performers for the opposition in the new Parliament, perhaps the best. He offers a significant upgrade in tone as leader of opposition business in the house compared with Anthony Albanese, who was leader of government business in the house for the Gillard and Rudd governments. Burke was wise to be patient and sit out the post-election leadership contest, which made Bill Shorten, who is just two years older, opposition leader.

Shorten manages to exude inauthenticity. He has been underwhelming in Parliament. He served under two Labor prime ministers and knifed both, conspicuously. Shorten is not helped by having Tanya Plibersek as his deputy. While Julia Gillard was sharp and witty before becoming prime minister, Plibersek has had no such period of grace. I discount both Shorten and Plibersek compared with Burke's potential appeal to the electorate.

Should anything happen to Tony Abbott - and there is a legion of fundamentalists who want him dead politically no matter what he does or achieves in the job - I don't think Shorten would be the primary beneficiary. Given the nature of the past 10 years of politics, I think it would be Joseph Benedict Hockey. He has excelled in Parliament and he has the make-or-break role in the Abbott government. He has to deliver a fierce budget in May.