Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Life comes at you quickly

This time a year ago, Oregon was the defending Pac-12 champion and national runner-up. The Ducks had won at least nine games for each of the last eight seasons and would start 2015 as the AP's No. 7 team, tops in the Pac-12.

The Ducks' 2015 featured all-bets-are-off quarterback injury issues, but they won nine games and finished ninth in Off. S&P+, their fifth consecutive year in the top 10 and seventh in nine seasons. They ceded the Pac-12 title to Stanford because of an early loss of form but won at Stanford, crushed USC, and finished the regular season winning six games in a row. They were probably the best team in the conference in November.

For an injury-addled rebuilding season, this is quite acceptable. Oregon didn't look like Oregon in September, kind of did in October, and very much did in November. The Ducks blew a huge Alamo Bowl lead when their quarterback again went down with injury, but bowl results don't mean much.

The short version (Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports)



2016 projected wins: 8.2



Projected S&P+ ranking: 18 (4 in Pac-12)



5-year recruiting ranking: 19 (4 in Pac-12)



Biggest strength: The fastest, deepest, and maybe best set of skill position talent in the country.



Biggest question mark: Can the run defense go from abysmal to merely below average? That could make the difference in the Pac-12 race.



Biggest 2016 game: Stanford (Nov. 12). One of these two has won each of the five Pac-12 North titles. Washington could disrupt that continuity, but until otherwise noted, the title runs through either Eugene or Palo Alto.



Summary: Oregon is still one of the fastest teams in the country and boasts a level of depth and experience that it in no way had while going 9-4 last year. Mere competence at quarterback will make the Ducks a serious Pac-12 contender. 8.2: 18 (4 in Pac-12): 19 (4 in Pac-12): The fastest, deepest, and maybe best set of skill position talent in the country.: Can the run defense go from abysmal to merely below average? That could make the difference in the Pac-12 race.: Stanford (Nov. 12). One of these two has won each of the five Pac-12 North titles. Washington could disrupt that continuity, but until otherwise noted, the title runs through either Eugene or Palo Alto.Oregon is still one of the fastest teams in the country and boasts a level of depth and experience that it in no way had while going 9-4 last year. Mere competence at quarterback will make the Ducks a serious Pac-12 contender.

So why is Oregon a complete and total Pac-12 afterthought? We're all picking either Stanford or Washington to win the conference, it seems. Just 18 months after the Ducks made the National Championship -- a game they trailed by one point until the last play of the third quarter -- they have been relegated to getting courtesy spots deep in top 25s, if that. Athlon has the Ducks 24th, Lindy's 24th. Phil Steele has them unranked.

Have we all lost our damn minds? What gives here? A few things:

1. Oregon's defense completely fell apart. Oregon's never had a truly elite defense during this nine-year run of nine-win seasons, but on six occasions the Ducks ranked between 15th and 33rd in Def. S&P+. That's good enough when you've got a great offense.

In 2015, Oregon ranked 82nd. Just enough 2014 pieces left -- linemen Arik Armstead and Sam Kamp, linebackers Derrick Malone Jr. and Tony Washington, defensive backs Erick Dargan, Troy Hill, and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu -- to affect the balance of the bend-don't-break scheme defensive coordinator Don Pellum seemed to prefer. And then injuries wreaked havoc on the linebacking corps and secondary.

A bend-don't-break defense can be just fine if you're limiting big plays and making stops in the redzone. Oregon did neither well enough. So Helfrich made a change, bumping Pellum back to linebackers coach and ace recruiter and bringing aboard former Michigan head coach Brady Hoke.

2. Another year, another quarterback change. When Vernon Adams was healthy, all was right with the offense. He wasn't quite as effective as Marcus Mariota, but that's a really high bar. Despite Adams missing three games and parts of others, Oregon still ranked ninth in Off. S&P+.

But when he was off the field, things tended to fall apart. Adams averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt; backup Jeff Lockie averaged 4.7. In 85 rushes and sacks, Adams fumbled four times; Lockie fumbled three times in 34.

Adams was a graduate transfer, a one-year patch. Though Lockie and last year's third-stringer Taylor Alie are back, it appears the QB race is between another graduate transfer (Montana State's Dakota Prukop) and a redshirt freshman (Travis Jonsen, who missed last year with a turf toe injury). Despite exciting pedigrees -- Prukop threw for more than 3,000 yards and rushed for more than 800 last year, and Jonsen was a blue-chipper in the 2015 recruiting class -- both are relative unknowns. Technically, so is new coordinator Matt Lubick, who took over when Scott Frost became UCF's head coach.

3. We are fickle creatures. We just are. What have you done for me lately?

Oregon is projected 18th in S&P+ -- higher than most of these human-based rankings, but not exactly top-10 -- so it's not like this is simply humans being fickle. Still, it doesn't take too many ifs to make the Ducks a Pac-12 contender again.

And knowing how players seek fuel via disrespect, head coach Mark Helfrich probably doesn't mind that we're not talking about his team very much.

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the Pac-12 so far!

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 23 | Final S&P+ Rk: 25 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Win

Expectancy vs. S&P+ Performance

vs. Vegas 5-Sep Eastern Washington N/A 61-42 W 80% 98% -13.4 12-Sep at Michigan State 9 28-31 L 46% 19% -3.7 +1.0 19-Sep Georgia State 87 61-28 W 91% 99% -6.2 -12.0 26-Sep Utah 22 20-62 L 8% 0% -57.4 -53.0 3-Oct at Colorado 94 41-24 W 86% 98% +7.8 +9.0 10-Oct Washington State 54 38-45 L 62% 52% -19.8 -24.0 17-Oct at Washington 13 26-20 W 79% 76% +22.3 +8.5 29-Oct at Arizona State 50 61-55 W 55% 48% +7.5 +8.5 7-Nov California 29 44-28 W 90% 97% +17.8 +11.5 14-Nov at Stanford 6 38-36 W 75% 57% +15.0 +12.0 21-Nov USC 17 48-28 W 97% 100% +24.7 +16.0 27-Nov Oregon State 107 52-42 W 77% 98% -17.1 -24.5 2-Jan vs. TCU 19 41-47 L 68% 45% -3.7 -6.0

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 41.9 9 30.4 82 Points Per Game 43.0 5 37.5 116

2. Rounding into form

Whatever goals Oregon had, they were out the window by midseason.

Any hopes of a national title were dashed either when the Ducks' comeback at Michigan State fell just short or when Utah pantsed them in Eugene two weeks later.

With Adams injured against the Utes, Oregon put together its most fragile performance in probably a decade. They committed three turnovers, gave up five sacks, allowed a trick-play punt return score, and got outscored 49-7 in the middle two quarters. It was a rare sign of mortality, and it was probably the moment a lot of us wrote them off through 2016.

Any hopes of a Pac-12 title went out the window when the Ducks blew a couple of early scoring chances against Washington State and fell in overtime. But by that point, the improvement was already underway.

First 4 games :

Record: 2-2 | Average percentile performance: 56% (~top 55) | Yards per play: UO 6.6, Opp 6.2 (+0.4)

: Record: 2-2 | Average percentile performance: 56% (~top 55) | Yards per play: UO 6.6, Opp 6.2 (+0.4) Next 4 games :

Record: 3-1 | Average percentile performance: 71% (~top 35) | Yards per play: UO 6.7, Opp 5.9 (+0.8)

: Record: 3-1 | Average percentile performance: 71% (~top 35) | Yards per play: UO 6.7, Opp 5.9 (+0.8) Next 4 games:

Record: 4-0 | Average percentile performance: 85% (~top 20) | Yards per play: UO 8.4, Opp 6.1 (+2.3)

After the Wazzu game, Oregon began to look like Oregon again. In their final six regular-season games, they beat the Pac-12 North champion on the road, the Pac-12 South champion at home by 20 points, and this year's preseason darling, Washington, on the road. After underachieving their S&P+ projection by 15.5 points per game in the first half of the year (minus-7.1 sans the Utah game), they overachieved by 11.7 points per game in the second half. They were Oregon again.

And then Adams got hurt, they blew a 31-0 halftime lead, and we wrote them off again.

Offense

Q1 Rk 9 1st Down Rk 8 Q2 Rk 3 2nd Down Rk 5 Q3 Rk 27 3rd Down Rk 27 Q4 Rk 34



Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Vernon Adams 168 259 2643 26 6 64.9% 27 9.4% 8.7 Jeff Lockie 6'2, 205 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8447 61 99 580 5 4 61.6% 11 10.0% 4.7 Taylor Alie 6'0, 185 Jr. NR NR 6 14 96 1 0 42.9% 1 6.7% 6.2 Dakota Prukop

(Montana State) 6'2, 195 Sr. NR NR 216 344 3025 28 10 62.8% 11 3.1% 8.3 Travis Jonsen 6'3, 194 RSFr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9483

















Justin Herbert 6'6, 215 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8584

















Terry Wilson 6'3, 195 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8839



















3. All about the QB

With the skill talent around him, I assume that if Lockie had held the starting QB job all year, he would have at some point generated large numbers. He is not without skill, and he had the misfortune of having to fill in for an injured Adams. Trying to rally the troops after the starter went down is not the easiest thing in the world.

Against Utah and TCU, when Adams started but had to come out, Lockie was 17-for-35 for 175 yards, one touchdown and two picks (passer rating: 88.6); in the three games in which Adams didn't play at all, Lockie was 46-for-73 for 405 yards, four touchdowns, and one pick (125.0). Granted, that was against Georgia State, Colorado, and Wazzu. Still, that's a pretty stark difference.

It's also still not very good. And it appears that in this year's battle for the starting job, Lockie was relegated from potential starter to "half mentor and half wideout." The actual battle for the starting job was between Prukop, Jonsen, and true freshman Terry Wilson.

Whoever wins just has to be competent for the Oregon offense to operate at a high level. Helfrich is still in charge, and Lubick has a solid pedigree -- three years as Oregon's receivers coach and passing game coordinator, three years under David Cutcliffe as Duke's receivers coach, five years under Dennis Erickson as defensive backs coach at Oregon State and Arizona State. And the starter will still throw to an absurdly deep set of exciting athletes.

That at least three quarterbacks have already surpassed last year's second-stringer tells us that the floor for the Oregon QB is higher than it was in 2015. Now we just have to find out about the ceiling.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Royce Freeman RB 5'11, 230 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9817 284 1836 17 6.5 6.2 44.4% 2 0 Dakota Prukop

(Montana State) QB 6'2, 195 Sr. NR NR 147 870 11 5.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A Taj Griffin RB 5'10, 175 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9742 77 570 3 7.4 12.3 37.7% 0 0 Vernon Adams QB 58 304 2 5.2 3.4 44.8% 4 2 Kani Benoit RB 6'0, 210 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8274 52 364 3 7.0 7.1 46.2% 1 1 Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 185 So. 4 stars (5.9) 0.8960 32 288 3 9.0 7.3 59.4% 0 0 Jeff Lockie QB 6'2, 205 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8447 23 156 0 6.8 6.1 47.8% 3 0 Bralon Addison WR 16 96 2 6.0 2.5 62.5% 2 1 Taylor Alie QB 6'0, 185 Jr. NR NR 9 145 3 16.1 17.3 66.7% 0 0 Charles Nelson WR 5'8, 170 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8706 6 115 1 19.2 20.9 66.7% 2 1 J.J. Jones RB 5'9, 180 Sr. NR NR 4 15 0 3.8 2.3 50.0% 0 0

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate Yds/

Target %SD Success

Rate IsoPPP Bralon Addison WR 98 63 804 64.3% 27.2% 8.2 68.4% 50.0% 1.56 Darren Carrington WR 6'2, 195 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9181 45 32 609 71.1% 12.5% 13.5 46.7% 53.3% 2.56 Dwayne Stanford WR 6'5, 205 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8935 44 30 463 68.2% 12.2% 10.5 61.4% 59.1% 1.72 Pharaoh Brown

(2014) TE 6'6, 250 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9233 33 26 420 75.8% 7.0% 12.7 78.8% N/A N/A Royce Freeman RB 5'11, 230 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9817 31 26 348 83.9% 8.6% 11.2 51.6% 67.7% 1.61 Charles Nelson WR 5'8, 170 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8706 31 17 270 54.8% 8.6% 8.7 61.3% 45.2% 1.90 Evan Baylis TE 6'6, 250 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9153 27 16 229 59.3% 7.5% 8.5 51.9% 44.4% 1.79 Devon Allen WR 6'0, 185 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9078 18 9 94 50.0% 5.0% 5.2 55.6% 44.4% 1.01 Taj Griffin RB 5'10, 175 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9742 14 10 162 71.4% 3.9% 11.6 71.4% 50.0% 2.29 Byron Marshall WR 14 9 121 64.3% 3.9% 8.6 57.1% 50.0% 1.86 Jalen Brown WR 6'1, 200 So. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9471 12 7 89 58.3% 3.3% 7.4 75.0% 33.3% 2.28 Johnny Mundt TE 6'4, 245 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8504 9 5 39 55.6% 2.5% 4.3 77.8% 44.4% 1.01 Kirk Merritt WR NR 7 5 61 71.4% 1.9% 8.7 100.0% 71.4% 1.30 Alex Ofodile WR 6'3, 200 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9443 Jacob Breeland TE 6'5, 221 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8600 Dylan Kane WR 6'3, 195 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8482 Dillon Mitchell WR 6'1, 190 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9280 Tristen Wallace WR 6'4, 235 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9197 Cam McCormick TE 6'5, 230 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8656

4. All the weapons you need (again)

Oregon lost Mariota, repeatedly dealt with Adams injuries, and got a combined four games out of Thomas Tyner (RB), Byron Marshall (WR), and Pharaoh Brown (TE). That's a recipe for a downfall, and the Ducks' offense did regress ... all the way from second to ninth in Off. S&P+.

While QB will continue to be a mystery, the skill guys surrounding the QB will be known entities.

Royce Freeman is an incredible workhorse back who would be getting far more national attention if not for the presence of so many other great backs -- Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, etc. Only 14 players carried the ball at least 275 times last season, and of those, only Freeman and Fournette combined an opportunity rate of at least 44 percent with an average of at least 6.1 highlight yards per opportunity. He was 164 yards from maybe the quietest 2,000-yard season ever in 2015.

Backups Taj Griffin, Kani Benoit, and Tony Brooks-James all averaged at least 7.1 highlight yards per opportunity, and among backs with at least 70 carries, no one could touch Griffin's 12.3 average (the next highest: Georgia Southern's Matt Breida and Favian Upshaw, at 10.9 and 10.8).

In two years, Darren Carrington has been targeted 95 times and caught 69 passes for 1313 yards. That's a crazy 13.8 yards per target. Notre Dame's Will Fuller averaged just 13.2 per target last year. TCU's Josh Doctson: 12.4.

Most offenses are lucky to have one key receiver averaging over 10 yards per target. But it wasn't only who was Carrington absurdly prolific; Dwayne Stanford averaged 10.5 per target, Freeman and Griffin averaged a combined 11.3, and in 2014 Brown averaged 12.7.

This might be the most dangerous receiving corps in the country, and I didn't even mention receiver (and part-time cornerback) Charles Nelson or tight end Evan Baylis. Or four-star sophomore Jalen Brown. Or four-star redshirt freshman Alex Ofodile. Et cetera.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. 2015 Starts Career Starts Honors/Notes Tyler Johnstone LT 13 39 2015 1st All-Pac-12 Cameron Hunt RG 6'4, 290 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9012 10 31 Matt Hegarty C 13 26 Zac Morgan (Dayton) RT 6'7, 280 Sr. NR NR 12 26 Tyrell Crosby LT 6'5, 310 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8784 12 21 Matt Pierson LG 12 19 Doug Brenner RG 6'2, 305 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8270 3 4 Evan Voeller LG 6'5, 290 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9017 2 2 Jake Pisarcik LG 6'2, 300 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8081 0 2 Elijah George LT 6'5, 290 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8228 0 0 Davis Miyashiro-Saipaia LG 6'2, 300 So. NR 0.7667 0 0 Zach Okun C 6'4, 310 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9058



Brady Aiello LT 6'7, 275 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8774



Shane Lemieux LG 6'6, 302 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8706



Calvin Throckmorton RT 6'6, 290 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8675



Jake Hanson C 6'5, 288 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8591





5. FCS All-Stars

It would be pretty surprising if Oregon once again pursued an FCS graduate transfer at quarterback in 2017. That would be a sign that either Jonsen, Wilson, or fellow freshman Justin Herbert hadn't seized control of the job. I assume one will.

Still, I have to admit that I love Oregon taking so many of these guys. It confirms the skill in college football's second level, and it opens up another pipeline of talent for the Ducks. If Prukop thrives in any way like Adams did, it will be interesting to watch the free agent market of FCS graduate transfer talent explode. (I wouldn't necessarily love that, because while I like the graduate transfer rule, I don't want to see every good player from every small/bad school leaving for somewhere else as a senior.)

I bring this up in the offensive line section because Helfrich didn't stop with Prukop this year. He also secured the commitment of one of FCS' better blockers, Dayton's two-year starting tackle Zac Morgan. Morgan isn't on campus yet, but if he makes it there, he will bring extra depth to what should be a pretty good line. Longtime starting left tackle Tyler Johnstone is gone, as is Matt Hegarty (himself a graduate transfer from Notre Dame), but with Morgan Oregon should have six players with starting experience on the depth chart. And from most accounts, redshirt freshman Jake Hanson is ready to take the center reins for the next four seasons.

Prukop is far less sack-prone than Adams was at the FCS level, and that alone should help Oregon's dismal sack rate. And let's just say it's hard to worry too much about the run blocking, even if short-yardage execution could stand to improve.

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Defense

Q1 Rk 44 1st Down Rk 85 Q2 Rk 60 2nd Down Rk 92 Q3 Rk 104 3rd Down Rk 67 Q4 Rk 105



6. Hello again, Brady Hoke

When you fail as a head coach, we tend to label you a Bad Coach, ignoring all the unique responsibilities that come with being a head coach and forgetting you were most likely an awesome coordinator before that.

Hoke hasn't been a coordinator since 1982 at Yorktown (Ind.) High. But the Ball State grad spent eight seasons on Lloyd Carr's Michigan coaching staff; in that span, the Wolverines never ranked worse than 27th in scoring defense and ranked 14th or better four times. As San Diego State's head coach, he inherited a defense that had ranked 113th in Def. S&P+ and had it up to 67th in his second year. And lord knows that defense wasn't his problem as Michigan's head coach -- in four seasons, the Wolverines ranked between 12th and 27th in Def. S&P+ each year.

Suffice it to say, Oregon would be fine with 27th. After last year, the Ducks would probably be fine with 50th.

Going back down to coordinator doesn't always work out. But with the personnel, Hoke should probably be able to shore up the pass defense and turn it into a strength again. The run defense might be a different story: Oregon ranked 108th in Rushing S&P+ last year and now replaces three of its four leading tacklers on the line and each of the top four at linebacker.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR DeForest Buckner DE 13 64.0 8.5% 17.0 10.5 0 5 0 0 Torrodney Prevot DE 6'3, 225 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9238 13 35.0 4.7% 7.5 2.5 0 2 1 0 Alex Balducci DT 13 28.0 3.7% 7.5 3.5 0 0 0 0 Tui Talia DE 13 25.5 3.4% 6.0 2.0 0 0 0 0 Henry Mondeaux DE 6'5, 280 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8631 13 19.0 2.5% 6.5 4.0 0 3 0 0 Jalen Jelks DE 6'6, 268 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8690 11 7.5 1.0% 3.0 3.0 0 1 1 0 Austin Maloata DT 6'1, 305 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8585 12 4.5 0.6% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Eddie Heard DE 6'3, 250 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8570 11 4.0 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 T.J. Daniel DE 6'6, 275 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.7508 10 3.0 0.4% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Rex Manu NT 6'3, 315 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8523 12 3.0 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Cody Carriger DE 6'6, 240 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8381 Canton Kaumatule DT 6'7, 295 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9907 Justin Hollins DE 6'6, 230 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8504 Gary Baker NT 6'4, 298 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8585 Drayton Carlberg DT 6'5, 290 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8584 Gus Cumberlander DE 6'6, 250 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8403 Bryson Young DE 6'5, 230 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9065 Wayne Kirby NT 6'3, 320 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8422



Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Joe Walker ILB 12 66.5 8.8% 6.0 2.0 1 1 0 1 Rodney Hardrick ILB 13 62.0 8.3% 6.0 2.0 1 1 1 0 Tyson Coleman OLB 13 47.5 6.3% 12.0 4.5 0 3 3 0 Christian French OLB 8 20.5 2.7% 5.0 2.0 0 0 0 0 Danny Mattingly ILB 6'5, 245 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8898 11 18.5 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0 Johnny Ragin III OLB 6'3, 225 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8591 12 16.5 2.2% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 Jimmie Swain OLB 6'2, 235 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8929 13 10.5 1.4% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Kaulana Apelu ILB 5'11, 196 So. NR NR 13 3.5 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Paris Bostick OLB 6'1, 220 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8457 2 3.0 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 De'Quan McDowell OLB 6'1, 203 Sr. NR NR 10 2.5 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Jonah Moi OLB 6'4, 250 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8517 A.J. Hotchkins ILB 5'11, 230 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8798 Lamar Winston OLB 6'3, 220 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9058 Darrian Franklin OLB 6'1, 200 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8919 Keith Simms ILB 6'3, 235 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8831 Troy Dye OLB 6'4, 210 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8615 Eric Briscoe Jr. OLB 6'3, 215 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8366



















7. A bad time for a rebuild on the front seven

Rebuilding a bad front is less pressure-packed than rebuilding a good one, but Hoke's got a lot of work to do. Oregon didn't provide nearly enough disruption up front -- 98th in stuff rate, 79th in passing downs sack rate -- and now has to replace six of the nine front-seveners who had at least five tackles for loss. DeForest Buckner was an incredible weapon at end, and returning linebackers (at least guys who, as Hoke moves from a 3-4 to a 4-3, are now considered LBs) combined for 1.5 TFLs last year.

Oregon does seem to have some talent at defensive end, where Torrodney Prevot, Henry Mondeaux, and Jalen Jelks combined for 17 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, and six break-ups last year. If Hoke can craft a nice pass rush to go with what really could be an excellent secondary, then if or when Oregon creates passing downs, the Ducks should be able to end drives pretty quickly.

Unfortunately, it's the "creating passing downs" part that could be an issue. Oregon's run defense was a nightmare, and unless sophomore tackle Canton Kaumatule suddenly discovers his ceiling, it's hard to imagine it improving much, at least beyond "progression toward the mean" levels.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Tyree Robinson S 6'4, 205 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9314 13 51.0 6.8% 1.5 1 3 5 0 0 Reggie Daniels S 6'1, 205 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9085 11 48.0 6.4% 2.5 0 0 10 0 0 Arrion Springs CB 5'11, 205 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9595 13 44.0 5.9% 1 1 1 12 2 1 Charles Nelson S 5'8, 170 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8706 12 41.0 5.5% 1 0 2 4 0 0 Ugo Amadi CB 5'10, 185 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8784 13 22.5 3.0% 2 0 2 3 0 0 Khalil Oliver S 6'0, 200 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8191 13 19.0 2.5% 0.5 0 1 1 0 0 Juwaan Williams S 6'0, 195 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8609 7 17.5 2.3% 1 0 1 1 1 0 Chris Seisay CB 6'1, 190 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8739 5 16.0 2.1% 1 0 1 1 0 0 Glen Ihenacho S

11 14.5 1.9% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fotu Leiato II S 6'1, 200 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8650 13 5.0 0.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ty Griffin CB 6'0, 200 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8056 6 3.0 0.4% 0 0 0 1 0 0 Mattrell McGraw S 5'10, 185 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8834 Malik Lovette CB 5'11, 205 RSFr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9389 Jihree Stewart CB 6'0, 182 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8585 Brady Breeze S 6'1, 200 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9025



















8. Youth becomes experience

Eleven Oregon defensive backs recorded at least 3 tackles last year: four true or redshirt freshmen, six sophomores, one junior, and no seniors. It probably shouldn't have been surprising, then, that the secondary struggled mightily in September, allowing a passer rating of 152.7 in the first four games -- 156.9 against EWU, 144.0 against Georgia State, and 181.5 against Utah.

After the Utah game, however, this turned into a pretty solid unit. Over the last nine games, Oregon allowed a 133.7 passer rating. That's not amazing, but considering the upgrade in competition over the last nine games -- a stretch that included Washington State, California, Stanford, USC, and TCU -- that's pretty exciting. There were still plenty of breakdowns, but again: four freshmen, six sophomores. Plus, only five of this group of 11 DBs played in all 13 games. There was enough shuffling that Charles Nelson had to return to the secondary from the receiving corps.

There was one transfer, but 10 players from this batch of 11 return (nine of 10 if we ignore Nelson), including safeties Tyree Robinson and Reggie Daniels and corners Arrion Springs and Ugo Amadi. This foursome combined for seven tackles for loss, six interceptions, and 30 breakups. And junior Chris Seisay is back from injury and likely to start as well. This unit has both depth and experience after lacking both in 2015.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2016

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Ian Wheeler 6'0, 205 Jr. 50 39.8 2 15 11 52.0%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Matt Wogan 6'2, 210 Sr. 98 63.8 62 0 63.3%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Aidan Schneider 6'4, 235 Jr. 67-67 16-18 88.9% 6-6 100.0%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Returns Avg. TD Charles Nelson KR 5'8, 170 Jr. 33 26.5 1 Byron Marshall KR 14 27.5 0 Bralon Addison PR 12 12.6 1

Category Rk Special Teams S&P+ 15 Field Goal Efficiency 9 Punt Return Success Rate 12 Kick Return Success Rate 37 Punt Success Rate 88 Kickoff Success Rate 21

9. A field position bailout

Oregon was able to create pretty good field position for its offense despite a lack of defensive efficiency. That's hard to do, but a return game that featured Charles Nelson, Byron Marshall, and Bralon Addison pulled it off. Nelson is the only returnee from that trio, but he's a keeper, and Matt Wogan's kickoffs are deep and efficient as well. Plus, Aidan Schneider is an excellent place-kicker. The only weakness here is in the punting department, but that only means so much when you've got a top-10 offense.

2016 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 3-Sep UC Davis NR 48.3 100% 10-Sep Virginia 68 16.6 83% 17-Sep at Nebraska 26 -0.1 50% 24-Sep Colorado 82 20.7 88% 1-Oct at Washington State 48 6.5 65% 8-Oct Washington 10 1.5 53% 21-Oct at California 49 6.7 65% 29-Oct Arizona State 57 14.8 80% 5-Nov at USC 8 -5.8 37% 12-Nov Stanford 16 3.2 57% 19-Nov at Utah 39 3.7 59% 26-Nov at Oregon State 86 14.4 80% Projected wins: 8.2

Five-Year F/+ Rk 46.6% (2) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 19 / 19 2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 5 / 1.8 2015 TO Luck/Game +1.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 64% (49%, 79%) 2015 Second-order wins (difference) 8.8 (0.2)

10. A breaking-in period

If Alabama, one of the few programs as consistently awesome as Oregon, were to go 9-4 in 2016, we would put the Tide right back in the top five the next year.

It's not fair to compare anyone to Alabama, but I do find it interesting how quickly we jumped off of the Oregon bandwagon. A bad run defense would prevent the Ducks from title contention, but they get both Stanford and Washington at home, and they might be afforded an opportunity they didn't have last year: breaking a new QB in a little bit.

Adams had to head to Michigan State with a hand injury in his second game. Whoever wins the QB job this year will start with UC Davis and Virginia, and after a trip to Nebraska, the Ducks welcome Colorado to Eugene. At worst, that's a 3-1 start and a chance to find a rhythm before the trickier games begin. Oregon has six games with an S&P+ win probability of at least 65 percent, and five come in the first seven games.