Springfield progressives have offered what they’re calling a “win-win compromise” on Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s proposed real estate transfer tax hike that they say would get her the $50 million a year she needs to cover her 2020 city budget and provide the $86 million a year they want to fight homelessness.

But the move may not be enough to save Lightfoot’s proposal, which faces deep opposition in Springfield.

Under the new offer, super-high-end real estate sales would be particularly whacked. Sales of any property—residential or commercial—worth more than $10 million would get hit with a 4 percent tax, up from the 2.55 percent Lightfoot wanted and the 1 percent under current law. On the other hand, higher taxes on homes and condos would only apply to those that sell for at least $750,000—below the $1 million threshold Lightfoot had wanted, but well above the $500,000 one key progressive had suggested.

Either way, I’m hearing Lightfoot’s plan still is in trouble, facing opposition both from Republicans and real estate groups that oppose tax hikes, and from downstate and suburban Democrats who see no reason to take a tough vote even if progressives may be climbing aboard.

Lightfoot’s office does not sound terribly optimistic.

"The mayor is committed to working with state leaders who share the city's values and commitment to ensuring the best outcomes for our residents,” her office said in a statement when asked for its reaction to the progressives’ plan. “We are still having conversations about ways to address the unique needs facing our city, and we look forward to veto session resuming next week."

If Lightfoot doesn’t get action from the General Assembly in the veto session, she’s strongly hinted she’ll instead have to raise property taxes at least $50 million in 2020. The tax would be implemented at midyear, and eventually pull in $100 million a year. Lawmakers return for the veto session Nov. 12 through 14. After that, they're not back in session until January.

The new plan was presented in a meeting with Lightfoot's staff and several state senators, said Rep. Theresa Mah, D-Chicago, one of 13 House Democrats who have pledged to vote against Lightfoot’s bill unless it includes significant funds to reduce homelessness

“We have a serious situation we need to address,” Mah told me. “We can’t just keep putting on a Band-Aid.”

“I can’t emphasize enough that we see this proposal as a ‘win-win’ opportunity for everyone,” she added. “It leaves the money that Mayor Lightfoot had budgeted to curb the deficit unscathed, but also honors her campaign commitment to support a dedicated revenue stream to combat homelessness by investing in permanent, supportive housing.”

“We hope to be able to work together on this common-sense solution,” said Sen. Robert Peters, D-Chicago, in a statement.

Chicago now has a flat real estate transfer tax of just over 1 percent on all sales. Lightfoot wants to shift it to a graduated levy, and during the mayoral campaign said she’d like to use the proceeds to curb homelessness. But in unveiling her proposed 2020 budget last month, Lightfoot said the fiscal hole is so large that proceeds instead would have to be used to fill the gap.

Any increase would have to be approved by state lawmakers and signed into law by Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

Under Lightfoot’s bill, home sales of up to $500,000 would come with a tax of 0.55 percent and sales between $500,000 and $1 million, 0.95 percent. The tax would hit 1.5 percent for home sales between $1 million and $3 million and 2.55 percent on sales above that price.

The progressives' alternative calls for lowering the threshold on the 1.5 percent tax bracket, applying it to properties that sell for between $750,000 and $3 million. The group emphasized that the higher rates would apply only to the increment, i.e. the sale price above $750,000.

The big money in the proposed compromise is jacking up the rate on sales worth more than $10 million, to 4 percent from Lightfoot’s proposed 2.55 percent. That would secure the estimated $86 million a year for affordable housing, but still allow a tax cut on 70 percent of property transactions in the city, those up to a price of $800,000.