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After correctly predicting the Brexit result in the Sunday Mail last year, constitutional expert Matt Qvortrup guessed the date and result of a second Scottish independence referendum last month.

He surprised many when he predicted 2021 – and that Scotland would vote Yes.

Nicola Sturgeon’s call on Monday for a referendum by 2019 – and Theresa May’s rejection of it – suggests Qvortrup may well be right and IndyRef2 will happen in four years’ time.

I predicted in a Sunday Mail article a few weeks ago that the next independence referendum will be on May 6, 2021.

After last week’s verbal war between May and Sturgeon, that seems increasingly realistic.

It is a safe bet that there were scenes of jubilation in Bute House last Monday.

Theresa May walked straight into Nicola Sturgeon’s trap.

(Image: Scottish Government)

Earlier that day the First Minister had announced: “The option of no change is no longer available. But we will give the Scottish people a choice about the kind of change we want.” A new referendum was on. Theresa May was caught off-guard.

A clearly flustered PM replied angrily that the SNP was creating “uncertainty” and “politics is not a game.” But politics is a game and it is one played rather well by the First Minister.

Great political leaders do not go off like firecrackers. A politician like Angela Merkel – to take but one example –has often waited days before responding to events.

By denying the Scots the right to a referendum – something that was in the SNP manifesto – May appeared both undemocratic and anti-Scottish. This is exactly what Sturgeon wanted.

The First Minister had clearly anticipated this. In a carefully crafted tweet, she told her 600,000 followers and the rest of the world: “I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.”

In full command of the moral high ground, Sturgeon called blocking a referendum a “democratic outrage”.

It’s no wonder international media were impressed. Süddeutsche Zeitung, Germany’s main quality newspaper, could hardly contain their admiration. They said: “On the most momentous day in recent British history with a historic vote on Brexit in Parliament, Sturgeon still manages to steal the headlines.”

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The First Minister’s tactic is impressive because she has forced the PM into a taking the decision most favourable to Scottish independence.

To be clear, Sturgeon is not interested in a referendum right now, nor one in 2019. The most optimal time would be after the Brexit negotiations. The longer May is in office, the more unpopular she becomes, especially as it becomes clear that Britain will not be able to get a Brexit settlement that is good for Scotland.

The announcement last Monday was not meant to lead to a referendum in two years. Rather, it was meant to lure May into a conflict with the Scottish Government, which in turn will bolster support for independence.

(Image: 2017 Getty Images)

The Scottish Government can accuse the Conservatives of being undemocratic, lacking a mandate and being unreceptive to the interests of the Scots.

If May were a strong leader she would have ignored Sturgeon. Legally, the Prime Minister is not obliged to grant the Scots an IndyRef2.

By engaging in Sturgeon’s game, May ill-advisedly announced “now is not the time” for another referendum, just as the FM wanted.

But the Prime Minister does not dare to deny the Scots a referendum – and she is not cunning enough to call the First Minister’s bluff by calling one now.

In all likelihood the next referendum will take place on May 6, 2021, on the same day as the Holyrood elections.

The prospect of another decade of Conservative rule in London, the lack of an alternative to the SNP in Scotland and, above all, animosity towards the British Government in Europe after acrimonious Brexit negotiations will create a perfect opportunity for a Yes vote.

(Image: PA)

Unlike in 2014, other European countries will not warn against Scottish independence. Even the Spanish are happy as long as this is held in accordance with the legal requirements, which May has been lured into to accepting.

The 2021 referendum will be very different from 2014. The most clear-sighted politicians know this. But few seem ready to do something about it.

A well-connected Labour politician and former minister told me last week Gordon Brown thinks Yes will win.

This time it is unlikely a last-minute intervention by the former PM will stem the nationalist tide.

Matt Qvortrup is Professor of Political Science at Coventry University. His most recent book Angela Merkel: Europe’s Most Influential Leader was published by Duckworth.