Vote history can be a useful data point when prioritizing your outreach

“More than 80 of 100 undecided voters who answered the door responded positively to the candidate’s ask and pledged their support on Tuesday.”

Try not to overthink the basic targeting process when you’re working with the voter file. Even if you don’t have thousands of dollars to spend on data enrichment, you can still run a targeted outreach effort with the information provided. The first thing I always look at is party registration (if your state collects that info). Chances are, you should focus on turning out the base of people who already claim to be on your side. Next, focus on undecided voters who are known to have a much higher rate of conversion than those who already identify with your opposition. The most important piece of data to examine in your initial outreach to undecided’s is vote history. What is the point of contacting someone who hasn’t voted in 13 years and doesn’t claim a party? There are plenty of folks who actually show up on E-Day, and using the turnout history provided in the voter records, you can prioritize your outreach and get more out of your limited time. This is especially important on the local level where turnout rates are abysmal. It’s a valiant effort to convert non-voters into engaged citizens, but trust me, you won’t win an election that way.

I tell this story a lot, but I was working with a county-wide candidate in 2014 who wanted to try something revolutionary. By using his campaign engagement platform, the team collected social media actions from over 5,000 people including the Facebook posts they liked, retweets, and mentions of the candidate. Next, he took a team of interns who sat down and merged the county’s voter file with the relevant social media accounts and found roughly 2,500 matches. That Saturday, when the candidate was out in the field, he knocked on the door of undecided voters and said things like, “Hey voter, I noticed that you liked my post on education reform, so I wanted to stop by and let you know that I fully support our teachers.” The success in this “social GOTV” was incredible. More than 80 of 100 undecided voters who answered the door responded positively to the candidate’s ask and pledged their support on Tuesday (4). Keep in mind this approach assumes that at least 50% of legitimate social media followers are constituents in the district. Also, merging data is no easy task. You will either need manpower or the help of data professionals in order to achieve the best results.

In any competitive sport, coaches and their teams will review hours of their opponents footage to learn their plays and strategy. In politics, it pays to know who your opponents supporters are so that you don’t waste your time contacting them. Party registration is just one indicator in a partisan election of folks you may not want to waste your time on, especially if they are consistent voters. On the flip-side of merging together your social media supporters with the voter file, it may be worth combining your opponents following as well. Why would you do this? If someone follows both you and your opponent on Twitter for example, and shows up as “undecided” on the voter file, this is an individual who is essentially “begging” for persuasion. If someone frequently engages with your opponent online but not you, maybe that’s someone you should take off of the voter contact list, because after all, time is the most valuable resource you have (5). Also, if a person is undecided on the voter rolls but has #UniteBlue in their Twitter bio, it’s probably safe to say that they are active and vote progressive. Same with conservatives, bio keywords like “patriot,” “liberty,” or “#tcot” will help identify online GOP activists.