Photographer: Phil Roader (Source: Flickr)

While voting results from 3% of Iowa precincts still remain outstanding, current available data reveals Bernie Sanders is winning the final alignment vote and Pete Buttigieg holds an extremely small lead in state delegate equivalents. Taking into consideration the demographics of the precincts that have yet to officially report results, it appears Sanders may actually end up passing Buttigieg in state delegate equivalents once all results are configured.

Despite the significance placed upon winning the Iowa Caucus in previous election cycles, this potential victory for Bernie Sanders unfortunately will be overshadowed due to the combination of the delayed voting results and the fast pace of the eternally evolving media cycle. Even though political discussion regarding the Democratic Primary has already shifted focus towards the upcoming primary in New Hampshire, several key takeaways from the Iowa Caucus should be emphasized.

Second Round of Voting Benefitted Buttigieg

The voting process of the 2020 Iowa Caucus operated differently than prior years. One of the significant changes was the implementation of two rounds of voting. Under this new format, voters attending the Iowa Caucus vote for their preferred candidate during the first round. Following the first round of voting, any candidate who did not meet a certain threshold (typically 15% in most precincts) was deemed non-viable. Thus if someone initially supported a candidate who failed to meet the viability threshold within their caucus site, they could shift support to one of the viable candidates. Following the elimination of non-viable candidates and voter realignment, a final round of voting was conducted and utilized to proportionally allocate the number of state delegate equivalents available at each voting precinct to the remaining political candidates.

An examination of the voting results reveals the second round of voting benefitted Pete Buttigieg more than Bernie Sanders. The first round of voting resulted in Bernie Sanders leading Buttigieg in the popular vote by 5,954 votes. After eliminating non-viable candidates and allowing for voter realignment, Buttigieg trails Sanders by only 2,518 votes.

The narrowing of the popular vote lead can potentially be explained by highlighting the voting results for the candidates that placed third, fourth, and fifth in the Iowa Caucus. As displayed in the image above, Elizabeth Warren finished third and gained votes during the final round of voting, while Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar each saw their popular vote total decrease. We can interpret this voting pattern by inferring a greater proportion of Biden and Klobuchar supporters found their candidate non-viable after the first round of voting than the people who came out to support Elizabeth Warren. In accordance with this credible hypothesis, we can presume the Biden and Klobuchar supporters forced to realign for the final round of voting were more likely to support Buttigieg instead of Sanders. Simply, voter preferences and political ideology surrounding each candidate provide feasibility to this proposed correlation. Sanders and Warren represent the progressive portion of the Democratic Party, while Klobuchar, Biden, and Buttigieg can all be classified as centrists.

State Delegate Equivalents Mirrors The Electoral College

It cannot be morally or ethically conceivable for the Democratic Party to criticize the Electoral College System, while employing an equally flawed system in the form of state delegate equivalents within their own electoral system. State delegate equivalents mirror the Electoral College as both voting frameworks contain the systemic flaw of disproportionate population representation. Voting power of rural and less populated areas should be proportionally factored into the overall election system whether it be at state level elections like the Iowa Caucus or the national level through Presidential elections.

Corresponding with Hillary Clinton losing the 2016 Presidential Election despite winning the popular vote, voting results from Iowa currently show Sanders is winning the popular vote, while trailing Buttigieg in state delegate equivalents. Once the few outstanding precincts are finally reported Sanders may overtake Buttigieg in state delegate equivalents, but the current positioning highlights the need for reform. The total appropriation of state delegate equivalents should accurately resemble the margin of victory within the popular vote.

Bernie Sanders Performed Strong Among Minority Voters

The narrative of Bernie Sanders performing poorly among minority voters persisted throughout the 2016 Democratic Primary. Equipped with a high popularity rating and cemented status within the U.S. political sphere, Bernie Sanders has generated a massive increase in name recognition in comparison to when he first announced his campaign for the 2016 Democratic nomination. As he has mobilized a political base of young Americans who have transitioned from formerly politically passive to avid political spectator or from spectator to activist, organizing efforts and the adept utilization of social media has created pathways for communicating his progressive messaging and history of advocating for progressive causes to minority communities.

Voting results from the Iowa Caucus reveal the culmination of these efforts and a positive sign moving forward. Entrance polls from the Iowa Caucus affirm Bernie Sanders performed extremely well among the non-white voters in Iowa. Sanders captured 43% of non-white voters with Buttigieg at a distant second place with only 15%.

Joe Biden Underperformed

A fourth place finish for Biden in Iowa signals an alarming trend for his campaign. Going into the Iowa Caucus, polls indicated a likely second place finish for Biden. Despite consistently sitting atop national Democratic Primary polls, Biden’s lead has diminished during the last couple weeks as Sanders and Bloomberg are rising. Biden was initially supposed to be the candidate the DNC believed could counter Bernie’s support through his moderate approach and the electability narrative, but so far voters in Iowa have indicated otherwise. If Biden underperforms in New Hampshire, does the Democratic establishment and the DNC start shifting support to Buttigieg or do they throw their weight behind Bloomberg and his Super Tuesday strategy?