EU trade negotiations: No deal is back on the agenda as the UK sets out its red lines

EU trade negotiations: No deal is back on the agenda as the UK sets out its red lines

Number 10 is no longer using the phrase 'no deal'

The Brexit message is clear today - prepare for no deal in four months' time.

The words "no deal Brexit" appear to have been banned by Number 10. Instead cabinet ministers refer to a "Canada-style deal" or an "Australian-style arrangement".

As expected, Canada is the model the UK government wants, a trade deal the EU took seven years to negotiate and ratify and which has eliminated most tariffs on goods, but that is all it covers.

Johnson: 'No race to the bottom' after Brexit

The EU says the UK's geographical proximity and deeper economic ties means the market access the UK will get - and obligations Brussels will want in return - will have to be higher.

Boris Johnson's government is having none of this - and says if the broad outlines of a trade deal cannot be agreed on by June, the UK will choose to "be Australia", a euphemism for having no trade deal with the EU.


Australia is in fact in the slow process of negotiating one; hence it is not quite an accurate comparison, but intended to sound reassuring.

Trade experts I've spoken to this morning regard the 40-page document of UK objectives, on first impressions, as a serious piece of work in which the British government is not trying to have its cake and eat it.

On financial services for example, which employ a million people in the UK, the government is not demanding huge exceptions of the sort which have been discussed in the past, only a consultation on them.

The big battles in the talks over the coming months will be about the "level playing field" - the EU's desire to keep the UK compliant with EU rules, and the UK's determination to set its own.

Image: Michel Barnier has insisted on a 'level playing field'

Michel Barnier pointed out yesterday that Mr Johnson signed up to "open and fair competition, encompassing robust commitments to ensure a level playing field" in the political declaration passed by parliament alongside the withdrawal agreement last month.

In reality, these are non-binding and the EU side has often failed to regard these as set in stone.

This is the sabre-rattling phase, and there may well be common ground between the lines, with both sides hoping to secure a bare bones deal within the coming months.

But there is a new deadline of June to make major progress, and political will - while working through controversial issues such as state aid to industry, and access to UK fishing waters - will be required in droves.

According to the government's own economic assessments under Theresa May, a Canada-style deal of the sort the UK is seeking, leave the UK economy significantly smaller than the much closer and more ambitious arrangement Mrs May preferred.

The prime minister's team has made clear over many months that it is not a close relationship, but political and economic independence that they are seeking; the UK making the rules.

There is not long to make it happen, or to ramp up the practical preparations which will be needed if talks fail.

You may start to wonder what happened to "getting Brexit done".