Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

1. Austin Meadows, CF

Background: Touted in last year’s book as the top prospect in all of baseball, Meadows promptly responded by putting together his worst offensive campaign of his entire five-year career. The ninth overall pick in the 2013 draft out of Grayson High School, a rival of fellow 2013 first round selection Clint Frazier, Meadows – once again – battled a litany of injuries including a fairly severe hamstring injury which needed a platelet rich plasma injection and a late-season oblique issue. Last year marked the third time in last four seasons that the Georgia-born center fielder failed to top more than 87 games. And even when he was healthy in 2017, Meadows hardly looked like the typical slugging outfielder everyone had become accustomed to: in 350 trips to the plate, he batted a disappointing .261/.323/.384 with 19 doubles, one triple, and just five homeruns, as well as 11 stolen bases (in 14 attempts). His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, just 4% below the league average mark.

Despite production that would be deemed a decent showing for any 22-year-old squaring off against Class AAA pitching, it was a dramatic decline for Pittsburgh’s top prospect – as well as the long term heir to the face of the franchise.

Meadows immediately made waves upon entering the minors, slugging a combined .316/.424/.554 with 11 doubles, five triples, seven homeruns, and a trio of stolen bases between the Gulf Coast League and short-season ball. He appeared in just 45 contests the following season thanks to injuries, but still managed to hit .317/.394/.488 with the lion’s share of time coming in the South Atlantic League.

Undeterred by a lack of a track record, the front office bumped the then-20-year-old center fielder straight up to High Class A and eventually to Class AA in 2015. And Meadows didn’t miss a beat: he battered the competition to the tune of .310/.360/.420 in what would turn out to be his healthiest season to date. Meadows would then split the 2016 campaign mostly between the Eastern and International Leagues, sans a five-game rehab assignment in the FSL, hitting an aggregate .266/.333/.536 with a whopping 25 doubles, 11 triples, and 12 homeruns in just 87 contests.

For his career, Meadows owns a .292/.359/.459 triple-slash line, adding 97 doubles, 26 triples, 34 homeruns, and 54 stolen bases to an already impressive resume.

Projection: Here’s what I quipped in last year’s book when I ranked him as the game’s #1 prospect:

“Even as he’s been hampered by some pretty sever hamstring issues over the previous couple years, that hasn’t stopped Meadows from flashing above-average speed – effectively completely the quintet of offensive tools. He’s proven to handle lefties and righties as well. The only thing left to show: if he can stay on the field. Whenever the Pirates move on from Andrew McCutchen, Meadows is going to make that transition pretty easy on the fan base. In terms of big league production, he should be capable of putting together a .300/.370/.500-type season – or seasons.”

A year later and he still hasn’t proved that he can remain on the field. Couple that with a dramatic downturn in production and that has to dull his prospect shine a bit, right? Wrong.

After a dreadful month of April in which he put together a lowly .195/.247/.256 triple-slash line – production that was a remarkable 62% BELOW the league average – Meadows performed as expected; he slugged .293/.354/.442 with 18 doubles, one triple, and four homeruns over his remaining 55 games – which, to be fair, included nine rehab contests.

The question isn’t going to be if he has the talent and drive to develop into an elite upper-echelon MLB players, it’s whether his body will cooperate. There’s too much talent – above-average bat, above-average power, speed, solid eye and contact rates, and the ability to handle lefties and righties well – to bet against him. Expect a big, big bounce back in 2018. One final thought: according to Clay Davenport’s metrics, Meadows has been an OK, sometimes poor, defensive center fielder, so a move to a corner spot wouldn’t be out of the question in a couple years.

Ceiling: 5.0- to 5.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2018

2. Mitch Keller, RHP

Background: With each passing year the big Iowa-bred hurler is putting a disastrous 2015 season further and further in his rearview mirror. Pittsburgh drafted the 6-foot-3, 195-pound right-hander out of Xavier High School – home to former big league outfielder Ryan Sweeney – in the second round of the 2014 draft, 64th overall. And after a brief foray into the Gulf Coast League during his debut, the organization took the cautious approach and pushed him up to the advanced rookie league the following year. But he wouldn’t appear on a mound until early August. And even then, the results left a lot to be desired. Throwing just 19.2 innings, fewer than eight innings than his brief debut, Keller fanned 25 but walked 16 en route to tallying a 5.49 ERA.

Then he broke out. In a big way.

Despite throwing just 47 innings over his first two seasons, the front office promoted the former early round pick up to the South Atlantic League. And he dominated. In 23 starts with the West Virginia Power, Keller tossed 124.1 innings while averaging 9.5 strikeouts and just 1.3 walks per nine innings. He finished his time with the club’s Low Class A affiliate with a 2.46 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 3.00 xFIP, and a ridiculous 1.55 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

So what did the young power-pitcher do for an encore? Simply put: he continued to dominate.

Keller began the season with the Bradenton Marauders in the Florida State League with a 2.1-inning clunker against the Stone Crabs, but he rattled off six games after in which he tossed 36.2 innings with a 35-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing only six earned runs. When it was all said and done, he would make 15 starts in High Class A, throwing 77.1 innings with a solid 64-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio before getting promoted up to the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, for six additional starts.

Overall, Keller threw 116.0 innings with a 116-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio with an aggregate 3.03 ERA (which includes a pair of two-inning rehab stints in the New York-Penn League.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about Keller after his massive breakout in last year’s book:

“Just to kind of put things into proper perspective, consider the following little statistical nuggets:

Keller was as dominant as any minor league pitcher in recent memory. He has front-of-the-rotation caliber potential. Here’s hoping he can avoid the injury nexus. Hopefully the big increase in his workload won’t catch up with him down the road.”

So let’s update a bit, shall we? Consider the following:

Keller’s strikeout percentage in High Class A was noticeably scant when compared with the other stops in his career. And it came storming back once he got promoted up to Class AA. Now consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, there were two 21-year-old arms that tossed between 30 and 75 IP while posting a 30% K% and a BB% less than 8%: Luis Severino and Tyler Glasnow.

Obviously, it’s a small sample size, but it can’t be dismissed given Keller’s dominant 2016 season. Either way, there’s a lot of intriguing arms between both little studies. At worst, assuming he avoids serious, career-altering injuries, Keller’s a #4-type arm. At best, the Luis Severino comp looks very reasonable.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

3. Cole Tucker, SS

Background: After a labrum injury – and subsequent surgery – knocked him out of action near the end of 2015 and forced him to miss a good portion of the following year, Tucker looked like a changed man. Back in High Class A after a 65-game stint to close out 2016, the young shortstop beat and battered the opposition to the tune of .285/.364/.426 with 15 doubles, six triples, four homeruns, and 36 stolen bases in 68 games. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 33% – the best mark of his young career. Pittsburgh bumped the then-20-year-old middle infielder up to the Eastern League, the minors’ most important challenge, for another 42 contests. And Tucker, the 24th overall pick in 2014, remained a solid offensive player: in 42 games with the Altoona Curve, he batted a league average-ish .257/.349/.377. Overall, the switch-hitting shortstop put together an aggregate .275/.358/.408 triple-slash line, setting career highs in doubles (19), triples (11), homeruns (six), and stolen bases (47). His overall production for the year topped the league average mark by 21%, an impressive number given his age and levels of competition.

Projection: Tucker’s quietly becoming one of the better shortstop prospects in the game, something that was far from a given when many viewed his selection in the first round as a bit of an overdraft. Consider the following:

Either way, Tucker’s in some pretty favorable company. He offers up above-average or better speed, the ability to hit .290 to .300, solid patience and contact skills, average power, and he can really pick it at shortstop. He has the potential to turn in a few All-Star caliber seasons. And Tucker is likely one of the most underrated prospects in baseball.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

4. Shane Baz, RHP

Background: Fun Fact Part I: For the second time in three seasons, the Pirates grabbed a prep prospect out of Concordia High School in the first round; Ke’Bryan Hayes was the 32nd pick in the 2015 draft and Baz was taken with the 12th overall selection last June. Fun Fact Part II: Concordia High School was had three players selected in June draft since 2015 (the other being 2015 late round pick – and current Dallas Baptist backstop – Garrett Wolforth). Fun Fact Part III: Outside of the trio, only one other player – Eric Olszewski – was taken in the school’s history. Baz, a 6-foot-3, 190-pound right-hander, made 10 brief appearances in the Gulf Coast League, averaging 7.2 strikeouts and 5.3 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.80 ERA.

Projection: Despite struggling with his control/command for the duration of his debut, Baz surrendered just 10 total earned runs – seven of which came in two of his 10 appearances. He didn’t miss as many bats as one would like – especially since he was a top pick with a big arm working in short stints – so we’ll have to see what the 2018 season holds. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him head up to short-season ball, a la the Mitch Keller development plan.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

Background: Fun Fact: Since entering professional baseball as a third round pick in 2014, Luplow has never posted a Weighted Runs Created Plus total below 129 at any minor league level. The former Fresno State outfielder made three stops last season, going from the Eastern League to the International League, and then onto the big leagues a couple times. Overall, the 6-foot-1, 195-pound corner outfielder slugged a combined .302/.381/.527 with 22 doubles, one triple, and 23 homeruns between his time with Altoona and Indianapolis. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a staggering 50%. As for his production in Pittsburgh…well…did you see how well he hit in the minors? Yeah, it was nothing like that. In 87 trips to the plate, Luplow hit a lowly .205/.276/.385 with three doubles, one triple, and three homeruns.

Projection: Even after a couple years of impressive – albeit quiet – production, I remained a bit bearish on the former Fresno State Bulldog when I ranked him as the 20th best prospect in the system, writing the following in last year’s Handbook:

“In [2016’s] book I referred to the former third round pick as a “sneaky” prospect because he hasn’t garnered a whole lot of interest outside of the Pittsburgh front office. But Luplow has one of the better eyes in the minors, walking in 12.7% of his career plate appearances. He combines that with a solid contact rate and average to slightly better than average power. He’ll also swipe the occasional bag as well. Teams could do worse as a potential fourth outfielder.”

Well, after yet another strong performance in the upper levels. It’s time to re-evaluate his performance, especially his 2017 numbers. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, there were 22 hitters that posted a 140 or better wRC+ total in the Eastern League during their age-24 season (min. 250 PA). Of those 22, 16 of them made it to the bigs before the end of 2017.

Taking it one more step further, of those 16 eventual big league bats, seven of them – Brian Dozier, Steven Souza Jr., Kevin Kouzmanoff, Steven Pearce, Scott Sizemore, Alex Presley, and Aaron Altherr – have at least one season in The Show in which they topped a 100 wRC+ with 250+ PA.

Solid, solid odds for Luplow – especially considering that Luplow’s patience and power match up exceeding well with Sizemore, Souza Jr., and Pearce. So let’s take a look at his numbers in the International League through a historical lens:

Between 2006 and 2015, there were 13 hitters that were 24-years-old that finished with at least a 150 wRC+ in the International League in which they received between 150 and 300 PA. Of those 13, 12 of them graduated to the big leagues.

Again, one more step further: Of those 12, six of them have tallied at least a 100 wRC+ in a big league season (min. 250 PA).

Don’t be surprised to see Luplow churn out a couple league average seasons in the very near future.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

Background: Once rumored to be in the running for the top pick in the 2013 draft, Moran, who was ultimately chosen with the sixth overall selection by the Marlins, hasn’t quite developed as many had hoped. A standout third baseman at the University of North Carolina, Moran was in the midst of his finest professional season to date before fouling a pitch off the left side of his face in a big league game against the Orioles. The 6-foot-4, 204-pound lefty-swinging prospect finished the year with an impressive .308/.373/.543 minor league line, slugging 15 doubles and easily setting a career best with 18 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 33%. Moran also went 4-for-7 during his brief seven-game cameo in Houston.

Projection: Prior to the year the book on Moran was nearly complete. He was a sweet-swinging third baseman with a solid eye at the plate and subpar power – for any position. But something in Moran seemed to click and he began launching moonshots like never before. His previous career high in homeruns was 10, which came in 117 games in the PCL two years ago. Last season he nearly doubled that mark in only 82 games. Pittsburgh acquired Moran as part of the Gerrit Cole swap with Houston.

He essentially showed signs of the player I thought he would become when I wrote the following prior to the 2013 draft:

“Moran will find his way into the top of the first round and profiles as a solid-average big league bat, capable of hitting .280/.380/.460-type hitter with 20+ homerun potential, though I’d be interested in how he handles fellow southpaws.”

Now let’s see how that production stacks up against his peers, historically speaking. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, here’s the list of 24-year-old hitters to post a 130-140 wRC+ mark with a walk percentage between 7-10%, a .200+ ISO, and a sub-20.0% strikeout percentage in the Pacific Coast League (min. 300 PA): Peter Ciofrone, Allen Craig, Brandon Wood, and Seth Smith. Craig and Smith both own better-than-average production in the big leagues: 113 and 112 wRC+, respectively.

Moran’s future is a bit cloudy as it is, and that’s before we consider if the new found power is repeatable. And I think it will be. Why? Well, Moran started lofting the ball with a higher regularity last season, like Yonder Alonso. Moran’s fly ball percentage, 40.2%, was his best mark since his debut in Low Class A in 2013. That year, by the way, he posted a decent .143 ISO. There’s some sneaky, underrated upside here.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2016

7. Jason Martin, OF

Background: Fun Fact: Among all players that received 300 or more plate appearances in the Texas League last season, only three players 21-years-old or younger eclipsed the 120 wRC+ threshold – Kyle Tucker, San Diego’s Luis Urias, and, of course, Jason Martin. Exceeding expectations – as well as the 120 wRC+ threshold – is nothing new for Martin, an eighth round pick out of Orange Lutheran High school way back in 2013. Martin, a toolsy lefty-swinging outfielder with experience at all three outfield positions, returned back to the California League after a strong, sometimes dominant, performance there the previous season. He batted .287/.354/.494 with 11 doubles, two triples, seven homeruns, and nine stolen bases en route to tallying a 136 wRC+. The front office bumped the young outfielder up to Class AA, a.k.a. the minors’ most important challenge, in late May. And Martin made the transition with aplomb. In 79 games with the Corpus Christi Hooks, Martin slugged .273/.319/.483 with 24 doubles, three triples, 11 homeruns, and seven stolen bases. Between both stops he compiled an aggregate .278/.332/.487 triple-slash line, belting out 35 doubles, five triples, and 18 homeruns to go along with 16 stolen bases. Pittsburgh acquired the young outfielder as part of the Gerrit Cole swap with Houston.

Projection: Despite a history of above-average production with tools abound, Martin’s prospect status was dulled by one large, very apparent red flag: his inability to handle fellow southpaws. Martin’s yearly OPS totals against LHP in 2015 and 2016: .590 and .485. Last season, though, Martin improved upon those numbers as he batted a serviceable, power-driven .234/.310/.438 against them. Sure, it’s not overly impressive but it’s enough to suggest that he could be a solid league average starter – if he can repeat it moving forward. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, only one 21-year-old hitter have posted a 115-125 wRC+ with at least a .190 ISO and a sub-7.0% walk rate in the Texas League (min. 300 PA): Randal Grichuk.

Grichuk, by the way, has been a serviceable league average outfielder for the Cardinals the past couple years, offering up above-average power (like Martin), solid league average defense (like Martin), and a handful of stolen bases (like Martin). One more thing: As I noted in last year’s book, at the very worst Martin looks like a Jason Michaels-esque platoon player.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

8. Bryan Reynolds, CF

Background: Typically known as Pitcher U., especially in the Prospect Digest Handbooks, Reynolds is making a case for hitters hailing from Vanderbilt University. A three-year mainstay for the Commodores, Reynolds, who left the college as a .329/.413/.508 hitter, was nabbed by the San Francisco Giants in the second round, 59th overall, two years ago. The 6-foot-2, 195-pound switch-hitting center fielder transitioned effortlessly into professional baseball, hitting a combined .313/.363/.484 in between stops with Salem-Keizer and Augusta during his debut and he handled the front offices aggressive promotion to the California League last season with relative ease as well. In 121 games with the San Jose Giants, Reynolds slugged .312/.364/.462 with 26 doubles, nine triples, and 10 homeruns. He also swiped five bags in eight attempts. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 22%.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Reynolds heading into the 2016 draft:

“Pretty similar to Rhett Wiseman, a third round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2015, Reynolds just doesn’t have a true standout tool to rely on when he eventually transitions into professional baseball. His power is average, especially if he gets pushed into a corner outfielder position; the patience at the plate is solid, but his swing-and-miss tendencies will certainly limit his ability against professional pitchers (he’s fanned in nearly 19% of his career plate appearances). Again, he looks like a backup outfielder – just like Wiseman.”

So how does that look a little more than a year later? Well, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2013, there were just 34 hitters to meet post a wRC+ total between 115 and 135 during their age 22-season in the California League (min. 400 PA). Slightly more than half of those hitters, 18 to be exact, made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017.

Not bad odds, historically speaking. So let’s hone in our Reynolds’ peripherals in 2017. Consider the following:

Again, using the same constraints in the above study, but applying it to hitters with a walk rate below 8% and a strikeout rate between 15% and 25%. There are only nine hitters that meet the aforementioned criteria.

Now of those nine, five of them went on to make it to the big leagues: Ben Paulsen, Grant Green, Mark Trumbo, Roger Kieschnick, and Francisco Peguero.

Of those five, only Trumbo’s seen extended action – and he’s basically been a league average hitter throughout his big league career.

Now it’s important to point out that Reynolds’ numbers picked up tremendously after a slow April, which is to be expected given the fact that he accrued just 66 plate appearances in the Sally two years ago. From May through the end of the year, he slugged .324/.374/.485 with a 131 wRC+. As I stated, Reynolds looks like an above-average fourth outfielder who might slide into a few 2.0-win seasons down the line.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

9. Oneil Cruz, 3B

Background: Acquired along with fellow minor leaguer Angel German from the Dodgers in exchange for veteran reliever Tony Watson at the trade deadline last year. Cruz, who originally signed with Los Angeles for a shade under a $1 million in 2015, spent last season working between both organizations’ Low Class A affiliates – an incredible jump considering that the prior season the teenage third baseman was down in the Dominican Summer League. And, simply put, the massive 6-foot-6, 175-pound man-child looked overmatched. In a combined 105 games, the lefty-swinging youngster batted a lowly .237/.297/.350 with 11 doubles, a pair of triples, and 10 homeruns. The sneaky-quick Cruz swiped eight bags in 15 tries as well. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 17% below the league average mark.

Projection: Tough, tough read here. Cruz was not only incredibly young for Low Class A – he was one of just twelve 18-year-olds in either league – but he also made as big of a minor league leap that one will see, going from the Dominican Summer League straight up to full season action. Meaning: there’s a ton of noise in this sample. However, after an atrocious start to the year – he hit .133/.189/.169 with just one homerun during the month of April – Cruz rebounded to slug .264/.325/.398 over his final 83 games. His overall production during that stretch was 4% above the league average mark. He has very promising power potential with a solid eye at the plate. Cruz could be a superstar just as easily flame out. But if you’re a cash-strapped organization trading away a good, replaceable reliever, he’s the type of return you target.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2020

10. Nick Kingham, RHP

Background: Easily the longest tenured top prospect in the system – a remarkable feat that after eight years in professional baseball Kingham’s name is still being listed as a noteworthy minor leaguer. Of course, succumbing to Tommy John surgery and missing the majority of two seasons will stunt anyone’s development curve. Kingham, who underwent the surgery three years ago, got off to another late start courtesy of an early season ankle injury. But after a mid-May tune-up start with the Bradenton Marauders in the Florida State League, the 6-foot-5, 225-pound right-hander rattled off another 20 appearances in the International League, 19 of them coming via the start. In total, the 2010 fourth round pick tossed 118.1 innings, averaging 7.1 strikeouts and just 2.2 walks every nine innings.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote in last year’s Handbook when I ranked him as the 8th best prospect in the Pirates’ system:

“Continually overshadowed by some of the [flashier] arms in the system – Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and now Mitch Keller. Kingham has always shown an impeccable ability to limit walks and missed enough bats to throw his name into consideration as a potential #3/#4-type arm. He’s likely headed up to Class AAA – for the third time – before finally getting his call up to make his debut. Assuming there aren’t any hitches in the near future, he’s a good best to help round out the Pirates’ rotation.”

That early ankle injury more than likely cost him a shot at a spot start or two in the Pittsburgh at some point in the season. As for the numbers, well, Kingham did what he always does: limit walks, miss a handful of bats, and post modest performance indicators (DRA, FIP, xFIP, etc…). Consider the following:

Estrada’s been an above-average, often underrated starter; Turner’s been a replacement level arm; and the rest of mainly forgettable, replaceable arms.

Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player

Risk: Low

MLB ETA: 2018

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.