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“This time we had more time, more money and more stability than ever, but organizationally, we’re a mess,” said one Conservative veteran.

It is not Harper’s way to publicly fire any senior member of his team unless he has no choice. In 2011, Nigel Wright, who had been travelling with the leader, was quietly parachuted into the war-room in mid-campaign.

A similar scenario is likely to unfold this time, with an experienced figure assuming control and Jenni Byrne, the current campaign manager, being gently sidelined. (The Canadian Press on Wednesday reported that Ray Novak, the PM’s chief of staff, has abandoned the campaign plane in favour of working the war room.)

This may arrest the Tories’ decline in fortunes. But I doubt it.

The Conservatives have never recovered from Wright’s departure and there is no one else, with the exception of his wife Laureen, to whom Harper listens.

The only cure for what ails the Conservative campaign is to give the leader a couple of days off — to sit and think, and to learn lessons from the mistakes made in the first 40 days. Veteran staffers say Harper’s biggest complaint is that he never has time to think. He’s now five weeks into an electoral marathon and thinking time, away from the hurly burly of the campaign, is presumably at a premium.

Old campaigners say it has worked before — sit Harper in a quiet room with his yellow legal pad and let him plot a way out of the soft sand before he sinks still further. It worked in 2008, when he realized he had to change tack and embrace stimulus spending, they say. It might work again — perhaps he will conclude he has to make additional commitments on Syrian refugees; or take part in more debates; or plan a fresh line of attack on the NDP’s Tom Mulcair….

The Conservatives cannot be written out of this race yet. They are only five points back, they have the Duffy trial behind them; they have plenty of money and a leader who has experience winning elections.

But they are running a campaign that has been beset by gloom and apathy.

After his free trade flip-flop, Brian Mulroney said only donkeys don’t change their minds. If Harper is to avoid being the old grey donkey of this election –

“It’s snowing and freezing, however, we haven’t had an earthquake lately,” said Eeyore – something better change, and quick.