Boris Johnson’s Tory government just got weaker after being inflicted with a damaging by-election defeat that leaves the new UK prime minister with a perilous majority of just one, and which may precipitate a general election.

It would appear that talk of a ‘Boris bounce’ effect on the fortunes of the Conservative Party has been somewhat premature. Johnson is now a record-breaker –not that he’ll want to boast about it– after becoming the UK PM that lost a seat in a by-election faster than any other for over a century.

The resurgent pro-remain Liberal Democrat Party, represented by Jane Dodds, won the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire in Wales by a majority of 1,425. They secured 43.5 percent of the vote while the Conservatives were beaten into second, on 39 percent.

Brecon & Radnorshire, result:LDEM: 43.5% (+14.3)CON: 39.0% (-9.6)BREX: 10.5% (+10.5)LAB: 5.3% (-12.5)MRLP: 1.0% (+1.0)UKIP: 0.8% (-0.6) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) August 2, 2019

The by-election was called after Tory MP Chris Davies was ousted from office in a recall petition by voters, after being convicted of expenses fraud.

What the result means for the Tories

Without The Brexit Party entering this by-election the Tories would have won this seat. What may give Conservative HQ pause for thought is the effect of Nigel Farage’s party –who attracted 10.5 percent of the vote– in this by-election, and whether this now forces them into forming an electoral pact in the next general election.

It would make sense for the two pro-Brexit parties, who are ostensibly both ‘no-deal’ advocates, to come to some kind of agreement, if they are to secure the UK’s exit from the EU by October 31.

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The main stumbling block to a Johnson-Farage alliance may lay at the feet of Dominic Cummings, the Tory PM’s de-facto chief of staff, who masterminded the Vote Leave campaign in the 2016 EU referendum.

Farage claims Cummings sees ‘true believers’ in Brexit like him as the enemy, insisting that “He thinks we’re all cretins and members of the lower order... He has never liked me.”

Brexit negotiations between Johnson’s administration and Brussels are going nowhere fast. The EU are ruling out opening up the withdrawal agreement and the UK are not willing to fully engage with their counterparts until the Irish ‘backstop’ is removed from the current deal – hence we have deadlock.

If the Tories have any ambitions of winning an outright majority at the next general election then they need to have taken the UK out of the EU by October 31 - failure to do so will have Farage rubbing his hands with glee. An election before the UK departs the bloc will require Johnson and Farage to put aside their party differences and form an alliance.

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