Mahershala Ali is the frontrunner in this Oscar race. Updated 2/21/19.

“Moonlight” Oscar-winner Mahershala Ali is the frontrunner as 60s jazz artist Don Shirley in true story “Green Book,” having dominated the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA awards. Ali now leads fellow SAG nominee and long overdue veteran Sam Elliott, who seeks his first Oscar nomination as Jackson Maine’s brother in Bradley Cooper’s smash musical “A Star Is Born.”

Photo by Mary Cybulski

Oscar-winner Sam Rockwell is back in the race as George W. Bush in Adam McKay’s “Vice,” snagging Globe and BAFTA nominations. Adam Driver snagged BAFTA, Critics Choice, Globe and SAG nods for his role in Spike Lee’s “BlacKkKlansman.” So did Richard E. Grant for his hilariously moving performance as a flamboyant partner-in-crime to heavy-drinking scam artist Melissa McCarthy in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” And he also collected an Indie Spirit nod and a New York Film Critics Circle win.

Contenders are listed in order of their likelihood of winning.

Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”)

Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)

Sam Elliott (“A Star is Born”)

Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”)

Sam Rockwell (“Vice”)

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