

Brexit: reality speaking 16/09/2016

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The thought occurs that the Commission's enthusiasm for the swift UK use of Article 50 may be motivated by more complex issues than was at first appreciated. One clue perhaps lies in the



The signs then (and still are) were of a turf war, with the Commission trying to take control of the negotiations. And going for early negotiations scores in another way, for the very reason why they are such a bad idea – the French and German elections.



It stands to reason that, if the Commission is trying to control the agenda, than it will not only want the Council out of the way but it will want to neutralise the "Franco-German motor". And there can be few better way of doing that than to launch early negotiations while the French and German leaders are fighting for their political lives.



If that is the plan, though, one person who had not been kept in the loop is Herman Van Rompuy, former European Council president. Yesterday, Today programme that substantive Brexit talks between the UK and the rest of the EU are unlikely to start much before the end of 2017.



This is for precisely the reason we have been pointing out, now confirmed by Van Rompuy. "Before the German elections and before there is a new German government, I think no serious negotiations will take place", he says. "You can always start with more technical matters, but the hardcore, the difficult topics, will be tackled after the constitution of a new German government and that will be October/November".



And there, of course, is reality speaking. The "Article 50 now!" crowd can bleat all it likes, and the media can prattle, but there are going to be no serious negotiations until the German elections are over and the new government is in place.



The other reality that we need to face is that the "colleagues" are probably as ill-prepared for the negotiations as is the UK government, which explains the lack of sense coming from both sides. There simply hasn't been the time for them to focus, and game the different scenarios.



Again, Van Rompuy comes to the rescue, saying that the talks will be tough but hopefully of mutual benefit, adding the UK had to make the "first move".



That puts likes of John Redwood in their place, who would have us drop a note to the "colleagues" and sit back and wait for the response. Initially, we are going to make the running, and that is also a big reason for delay. We are simply not ready to embark on such a complex, perilous endeavour.



At least the "colleagues" are getting to grips with the issues at the Bratislava summit today. And in preparation, a letter from President Donald Tusk



The meeting, he says, is at a particularly historic moment. Brexit not only challenges us with the task of negotiating new relations with the United Kingdom. It would be a fatal error to assume that the negative result in the UK referendum represents a specifically British issue. People in Europe want to know if the political elites are capable of restoring control over events and processes which overwhelm, disorientate, and sometimes terrify them.



And it is here that we are really seeing the makings of that turf way. The keys to a healthy balance between the priorities of Member States and those of the Union, says Tusk, lie in national capitals. How the mighty have fallen. Today, he says, the EU is often treated as a necessary evil, not a common good. The slogan "less power for Brussels", which sounds attractive in political campaigns, should translate as more responsibility for the Union in national capitals.



The institutions (including, of course, the Commission) should support the priorities as agreed among Member States, and not impose their own ones. And there the cracks begin to show. "It is therefore … to restore the balance between the need for freedom and security, and between the need for openness and protection". In this context, he adds: "the effective control of our external borders comes first, and has both a practical and a symbolic dimension".



Compare and contrast that with Juncker's lacklustre attempts this week, with Tusk suggesting that there is ample room for "real optimism". We need to do everything not to let it degenerate into a blame game, so futile and so typical of recent years, or a bidding competition for best-sounding slogans, such as "better Europe", "less Europe" or "more Europe".



Then, Tusk puts his finger on it. If the EU does get bogged down in this blame game, he says, someone might eventually cut it short with "no more Europe". Somebody, it seems, has his feet on the ground. We are in for some interesting times. But not for a while. The thought occurs that the Commission's enthusiasm for the swift UK use of Article 50 may be motivated by more complex issues than was at first appreciated. One clue perhaps lies in the Commission attempt to bounce the European Council into accepting Michael Barnier as the official EU Brexit negotiator.The signs then (and still are) were of a turf war, with the Commission trying to take control of the negotiations. And going for early negotiations scores in another way, for the very reason why they are such a bad idea – the French and German elections.It stands to reason that, if the Commission is trying to control the agenda, than it will not only want the Council out of the way but it will want to neutralise the "Franco-German motor". And there can be few better way of doing that than to launch early negotiations while the French and German leaders are fighting for their political lives.If that is the plan, though, one person who had not been kept in the loop is Herman Van Rompuy, former European Council president. Yesterday, he told the BBC Radio 4programme that substantive Brexit talks between the UK and the rest of the EU are unlikely to start much before the end of 2017.This is for precisely the reason we have been pointing out, now confirmed by Van Rompuy. "Before the German elections and before there is a new German government, I think no serious negotiations will take place", he says. "You can always start with more technical matters, but the hardcore, the difficult topics, will be tackled after the constitution of a new German government and that will be October/November".And there, of course, is reality speaking. The "Article 50 now!" crowd can bleat all it likes, and the media can prattle, but there are going to be no serious negotiations until the German elections are over and the new government is in place.The other reality that we need to face is that the "colleagues" are probably as ill-prepared for the negotiations as is the UK government, which explains the lack of sense coming from both sides. There simply hasn't been the time for them to focus, and game the different scenarios.Again, Van Rompuy comes to the rescue, saying that the talks will be tough but hopefully of mutual benefit, adding the UK had to make the "first move".That puts likes of John Redwood in their place, who would have us drop a note to the "colleagues" and sit back and wait for the response. Initially, we are going to make the running, and that is also a big reason for delay. We are simply not ready to embark on such a complex, perilous endeavour.At least the "colleagues" are getting to grips with the issues at the Bratislava summit today. And in preparation, a letter from President Donald Tusk offers some "personal reflections".The meeting, he says, is at a particularly historic moment. Brexit not only challenges us with the task of negotiating new relations with the United Kingdom. It would be a fatal error to assume that the negative result in the UK referendum represents a specifically British issue. People in Europe want to know if the political elites are capable of restoring control over events and processes which overwhelm, disorientate, and sometimes terrify them.And it is here that we are really seeing the makings of that turf way. The keys to a healthy balance between the priorities of Member States and those of the Union, says Tusk, lie in national capitals. How the mighty have fallen. Today, he says, the EU is often treated as a necessary evil, not a common good. The slogan "less power for Brussels", which sounds attractive in political campaigns, should translate as more responsibility for the Union in national capitals.The institutions (including, of course, the Commission) should support the priorities as agreed among Member States, and not impose their own ones. And there the cracks begin to show. "It is therefore … to restore the balance between the need for freedom and security, and between the need for openness and protection". In this context, he adds: "the effective control of our external borders comes first, and has both a practical and a symbolic dimension".Compare and contrast that with Juncker's lacklustre attempts this week, with Tusk suggesting that there is ample room for "real optimism". We need to do everything not to let it degenerate into a blame game, so futile and so typical of recent years, or a bidding competition for best-sounding slogans, such as "better Europe", "less Europe" or "more Europe".Then, Tusk puts his finger on it. If the EU does get bogged down in this blame game, he says, someone might eventually cut it short with "no more Europe". Somebody, it seems, has his feet on the ground. We are in for some interesting times. But not for a while.





