The third installment in the long-running How to Train Your Dragon franchise is hitting theaters this weekend, hoping to become the first major release of the year to not be underwhelming in its domestic performance. Following the disappointing results for The LEGO Movie 2, one could reasonably assume that the animated epic has a sizable untapped family audience waiting, though that’s far from a sure thing.

Nearly five years ago, How to Train Your Dragon 2 was considered a bit underwhelming when it launched with $49 million in June of 2014. While that was a slight improvement over its predecessor, it was expected to do significantly better given the fantastic reputation and staying power that its predecessor showed, as many animated sequels tend to build up a larger audience on home video and subsequently have better openings. As a result, Dragon 2 wound up a bit lower than its predecessor when the dust settled – $177 million versus $217 million.

A reasonable comparison would be 2016’s Kung Fu Panda 3, which wound up a good bit below its predecessors as well. Currently, The Hidden World is targeting an opening of around $40-45 million, benefitting from $2.5 million from previews several weeks ago. If it winds up over $45 million, that’s a win.

The other biggest opening of the weekend is wrestling comedy Fighting with My Family, which is targeting an opening in the mid-range single digits. The title was produced for a fairly cheap $11 million, and did admirable business in its limited release last weekend (which was a fairly strange choice, as most titles that open early in LA/NY tend to be more arthouse-oriented, though I digress) but it remains to be seen if there’s enough of an audience to justify the titles release into 2,711 locations. Without much in the way of similar comparable titles, it’s hard to gauge how much interest there is in a title such as this.

Among holdovers, Alita: Battle Angel will show if it will have any staying power following its mixed-bag debut, while The LEGO Movie 2 will likely see a steady decline with the new direct competition.

Predictions

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – $42 million Alita: Battle Angel – $12.5 million The LEGO Movie 2 – $11 million Isn’t It Romantic – $8 million What Men Want – $6 million

Fighting with My Family – $3.8 million