One research institute’s estimate of low-income jobs lost in the Fort Smith region from the coronavirus restrictions may accurately reflect the total number of jobs lost in the region.

Urban Institute estimates the greater Fort Smith area — which includes Fort Smith, Van Buren and smaller towns in eastern Oklahoma — has lost 12,649 jobs that pay less than $40,000 per year as of April 16. While the study specifically estimates for low-income jobs, Western Arkansas Planning and Development District Workforce Development Director Dennis Williamson said he "can see" the estimate reflecting the total number of jobs lost in the region, which employs around 110,000 on the Arkansas side of the border.

Researchers made their estimates based on job loss patterns from Washington state, which was one of the first to be hit by the coronavirus, as well as the number of unemployment claims filed across the state. Oklahoma and Arkansas’ economic and social restrictions both differ from Washington, which has a shelter-in-place order.

Even without a shelter-in-place order, Williamson said he can still see the effects in the metro area, which employs residents of the two cities as well as surrounding municipalities in western Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma.

"The majority of your restaurants are operating with just kitchen staff and just management staff — same with hotels and hospitality," he said. "A lot of the public organizations like your public schools, your adult ed, have even been affected."

The institute estimates that like many places across the country, the Fort Smith metro area has lost more jobs in accommodation and food service than any other type of work. But the area is also estimated to have lost a significant number of manufacturing jobs, which have remained a staple of the economy even after recessions and factory closures.

Urban Institute Chief Data Scientist Graham MacDonald said there have been job losses in manufacturing if the goods are nonessential. The Fort Smith metro area has an estimated manufacturing job loss of just over 2,000, which is second in number only to the estimated almost 3,000 jobs lost in accommodation and food services, according to Urban Institute estimates.

"It’s hard to find good people before, and certainly, lots of the companies that are being affected by this, whether it’s a service-type business or some kind of manufacturing that’s just not considered essential anymore," Williamson said. "It has an effect."

Whether the estimates are accurate or not, much of Fort Smith — and much of the affected workforce in the town, according to Williamson — still lives below the $40,000 mark. Fort Smith from 2014-2018 had an average per capita income of $25,014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The city also has an estimated poverty rate of 23.2%, according to the latest Census Bureau estimates.

Williamson said he still worked to close the skills gap in the Fort Smith region to get people jobs even during the economic downturn. He said it’s harder and slower "because there are fewer opportunities" but that he and others in workforce development are learning new methods and training to pass down as job opportunities remain scarce.

And while the economy is down, he and others in the region are laying plans to help those affected.

"I do have a couple of initiatives where I am working with some companies that are trying to come up with job retention strategies or even look at bringing some folks back on who had been laid off and using some workforce dollars, and possibly even looking at some of the economic development dollars that are out there to help folks retool a little quicker than they had intended to," he said.