Every year some running back taken in the middle of the draft takes the league by storm in his rookie year. Last year had Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara. 2016 had Jordan Howard. 2015 had Jay Ajayi and David Johnson. All of these prospects fell due to various reasons including injuries, lack of time as a featured back, concerns for injury due to their workload, or even just attending a small school. With this in mind I took a look at all running backs drafted between the 2nd and 4th rounds and tried to see if they could be the next member of this club.

Candidates:

2nd Round Picks

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Analysis: Chubb was looking to be an all time great at Georgia before suffering a gruesome (look it up you freaks, but you’ll regret it) injury against Tennessee his sophomore year. His career was still exceptional after that but it left many thinking about what could have been. Chubb has established himself as a strong runner and can get a hard yard. He doesn’t have dashing speed and is not very elusive but can definitely be brought in as a power back however, (read that in Stephen A. Smith’s voice please) he still hasn’t shown enough to get more carries than Carlos Hyde or be featured more in the offense than Duke Johnson. If he can avoid injuries, he still will be a solid player.

Verdict: Solid player who will be a help for the Browns. He likely won’t be featured quite enough to be a breakout star but still worth keeping an eye on.

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Analysis: Jones was someone I always believed to be underrated when he was at USC. He seemed to improve quite a bit every year he was there which is something I value in a prospect. He has the explosiveness and quick feet to be a big play threat at all times. While he didn’t show a ton as a receiver at USC, I think he can improve at the next level. While he had 275 carries his last year at USC, questions still arise about his ability to be a primary ball carrier at the next level due to his lean body. The Buccaneers don’t have a large amount of talent at the position and it is definitely possible for him to slide up the depth chart(confession hour: I couldn’t remember if Doug Martin was still on the Bucs or not and had to look it up). While Jameis Winston is suspended, he will also likely have a heightened role.

Verdict: The Buccaneers will be a dumpster fire this year. I can see them handing the keys to Jones and letting him run wild. He may be putting up some nice numbers but probably not a star with the lack of talent and stability around him.

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions

Analysis: Johnson burst on the scene his junior year at Auburn being named SEC Offensive Player of the Year. He was a reliable scoring threat for Auburn and did well against both Georgia’s and Alabama’s star studded defenses. His lack of carries early on in his career can also help him as there are fewer miles on his odometer (it worked for Alvin Kamara). On top of that He’s shown the gift and toughness that’ll allow him to up his amount of carries. The Lions have also been in desperate need of a running back recently. They haven’t had a back rush for 100 yards in a game since 2013 (not totally relevant but it’s just an insane stat). If Zach Zenner (all love for you bud you performed admirably against my Cowboys) can get carries for them, Johnson can too. Matt Stafford’s ability as a QB will also prevent teams from shifting their focus to Johnson.

Verdict: Johnson can be the answer at RB the Lions have desperately needed. He has the perfect combination of a team that’s solid, but not so good can’t crack the rotation, and a team with a QB that forces defenses to respect the deep ball. Johnson is one of my top choices to be this year’s mid round rookie darling (I’m still workshopping the right term for it).

3rd Round Picks

Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos

Analysis: Freeman had a very decorated career at Oregon where he showed that he could endure a heavy load of carries. He was hampered by by injuries later in his career but he still showed flashes. Freeman was a very reliable back who could always do his job even when things around him fell apart (man was 2016 a dumpster fire for Oregon). This reliability can lead to him shooting his way up the depth chart (he’s currently listed as 2nd behind Devontae Booker) and will be a trusted ball carrier.

Verdict: Barring injuries, I think Freeman will put up solid numbers. He may not be the flashiest player in the league, but he will get the job done, and put up the stats that show it.

4th Round Picks

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts

Hines was a key part of North Carolina State’s offense as a senior and also provided an impact in the return game. His forty time of 4.38 seconds draws attention and is indicative of the way he plays. When running the ball, can make plays with his speed and elusiveness but will have trouble getting carries due to his small size. His impact this year may be in the return game where he flourished at North Carolina State. He doesn’t quite have the hands yet, but if that develops, he could be made into a multifaceted threat on offense, but that will require some work.

Verdict: Hines will have some highlights and can succeed in the return game. I doubt he will get a large number of carries and will just be used as a speed back, so yards may be lacking.

Mark Walton, Cincinnati Bengals

Analysis: Walton shows speed and quickness on film, but was hampered by an ankle injury during the 2017 season. Walton has some speed and can also put his head down and get tough yardage when needed. His good hands will also be a source of playmaking. Another bonus is that Walton never once fumbled in his college career (a reverse turnover chain if you will). The downside for Walton is that the Bengals have some solid players at the running back position and also at other skill positions.

Verdict: Talent is there but it may be hard for him to crack the rotation. His multifaceted abilities will make for a decent player still.

Ito Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Analysis: (Can’t lie, I never had heard of this dude before the draft) Smith was drafted much higher than his pre draft grades would anticipate. Smith carried a heavy workload at Southern Miss as a reliable ballcarrier and pass catcher. While he’s not very quick, Smith is effective in open space and has good vision. His small size is a concern but he makes up for it with powerful legs. Unfortunately for Smith, Atlanta has possible the most skill position talent in the league ahead of him on the depth chart.

Verdict: There’s stuff to like about Smith’s play, but it’s just too hard to see him get consistent carries.

Kalen Ballage, Miami Dolphins

Analysis: Ballage comes into the NFL having never really been the featured back in an offense (not always a bad thing look at James White or even Alvin Kamara). Ballage made his presence known as a kick returner which is always a valuable quality to have in the NFL. Ballage definitely also has an NFL body. His vision (or lack there of) is a cause for concern, but his burst and explosiveness bring positive attention. While there isn’t a superstar in the Dolphins’ (I hope I used that apostrophe correctly) backfield, there are a lot of solid players so reps will not be given.

Verdict: I have high hopes for Ballage. His build, speed, and pass catching ability bring in a lot to like. If he can learn to follow his blocks better, he will have a nice career ahead of him.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals

Analysis: Edmonds has a very decorated career at Fordham (it should definitely be pronounced Ford-ham and not Ford-um) but had a leg injury cut his senior year short. His athleticism, explosiveness, and ability to make tacklers miss definitely pop on film. He has quick feet when running the ball and always leaves defenders on their toes. He has shown that he can also make plays as a receiving back. On the downside he has a propensity for bouncing outside too much and shying away from carrying it inside. Edmonds will likely get touches but it will be hard to flourish with arguably the best running back in the league ahead of him on the depth chart.

Verdict: Edmonds will dazzle viewers and make his fair share of nice plays but due to the presence of David Johnson, his carries and yards may not be super high.

After looking through all these prospects I now have my order from most to least likely:

1. Kerryon Johnson

2. Royce Freeman

3. Nick Chubb

4. Kalen Ballage

5. Chase Edmonds

6. Mark Walton

7. Ronald Jones

8. Nyheim Hines

9. Ito Smith

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