Barclays has shared a new analyst note today covering its predictions for how the battery replacement program will influence AAPL performance. Among its forecasts, the note shares the possibility of 16M iPhone sales being lost.

Barclays analyst Mark Moscowitz and company’s latest report focuses heavily on how the battery slowdown issues and replacement program will influence Apple’s iPhone sales going forward, along with a revised target price for AAPL shares.

The note says that while Apple’s apology and discounted replacement program was a positive PR move to provide a solution for users, it will likely create a challenge for iPhone sales, with a potential 4% reduction in overall revenue.

Barclays estimates that there are 519 million iPhones eligible for the $29 battery replacement and predicts that Apple will do swaps on about 10% or 54 million of them. While the $29 charge would create about $1.56B in revenue, the company could be giving up around $10B from the potential loss of the estimated 16M iPhone sales.

Putting all of this in context with Apple’s positive momentum like its growing services revenue, Barclays gives AAPL a neutral rating, but with a slightly lowered target price of $162.

Barclays also shares concerns about iPhone X demand being overrated, but not as much as other analysts. It believes Apple will sell 56M iPhone units for both the company’s Q1 and Q2.

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