Will a measles outbreak persuade more parents to vaccinate their children?

That’s the question people are asking as concern grows about the outbreak linked to Disneyland that has spread to 67 cases across seven states.

Some doctors have expressed hope that parents will be more likely to get their children immunized. I hope they’re right, but research suggests that the long-term effects of the outbreak could be worse, not better. The social and political conflicts we’ve seen emerge over the outbreak threaten to polarize the issue along political lines and weaken the social consensus in favor of vaccination.

Measles was declared eradicated in the United States in 2000, but vaccination is still crucial to protect against a resurgence due to cases imported from overseas. The Disneyland outbreak, which was probably caused by just one infected person, highlights just how explosively contagious the disease can be.

Despite the anxiety that some parents are feeling after the outbreak, it’s not clear that even such a vivid reminder of a vaccine-preventable disease will change many people’s minds given the resistance we continue to see from hesitant parents. In a previous study, my co-authors and I found that a series of messages used by public health officials to convey the dangers of measles, mumps and rubella had no effect on parents’ intention to vaccinate. Even events as high profile as the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School tend to have only a brief effect on public opinion toward the issue in question — as was observed in Washington State, where a recent pertussis outbreak did not change vaccination rates.