NewDealdemocrat | April 18, 2018 9:41 pm



Back in January, I asked if the economy was “booming.” There’s no official definition, but based on my recollection of the two periods I have lived through that felt like booms, the1960s and late 1990s, the two times in my life that the feel of an economic boom was palpable, I answered in the negative. I considered a number of indicators of well-being, to see what stood out in those two periods, and concluded that

The five markers of an economic Boom are the following:

1. An unemployment rate under 4.5%

2. YoY industrial production growth of at least 4%

3. YoY real wage growth of at least 1%

4. YoY real aggregate wage growth of at least 4%

5. Increasing YoY inflation.

In January, only the first and last markers were present. Let’s update now that the first quarter iv over. Unemployment rate under 4.5% This remains at 4.1%

YoY industrial production growth of at least 4% Due to the big surge of 1% in February alone, this is now over 4% YoY:YoY real wage growth of at least 1% Real wage growth is up just barely above zero, at +0.1%. YoY real aggregate wage growth of at least 4% This is only —–% and has been decelerating. Increasing YoY inflation.