A Boston College study has concluded that over half of cryptocurrency startups fail within four months of launch. The study focused on tracking the Twitter activity of the startups in the early months after their ICO’s (initial coin offerings).

The study did point out that if the firm can survive more than 6 months, returns for investors can be in the range of 150% to 430%. Exchange listings often played into this extended survival rate and accompanied returns. Cryptocurrency companies that managed to get listed on an exchange had an 83% survival rate after 4 months. That number dropped drastically to 17% for companies without an exchange listing.

The study was conducted by Boston College researchers Hugo Benedetti and Leonard Kostovetsky. While they didn’t deny that the results could be and indication of bubbles, they did point out that “they are also consistent with high compensation for risk for investing in unproven pre-revenue platforms through unregulated offerings.”

The study covered ICOs finalized pre-May 2018, accounting for 2,390 offerings in total. Benedetti and Kostovetsky determined that only 44% of the companies had significant Twitter activity within the four months of their ICO launch.

Factoring in the unpredictability of returns, Kostovetsky said, “People often look at returns and say this is a great deal, but we teach in finance that return is a compensation for risk. These are stakes in platforms that have not yet been built, that have no participants yet. There’s a lot of risk. The majority of ICOs do fail.”

There is much to be gained in cryptocurrency investing, but it’s wise to do your research and make calculated decisions.