The National party is poised to return to power in New Zealand with 50% of the vote counted

The John Key-led National party is poised to return to power in New Zealand for a third consecutive term, having survived waves of scandal during a volatile and antagonistic election campaign.



With just over 50% of the vote counted, National had received 49% of the party vote, which determines the composition of parliament under New Zealand’s proportional system. The Labour party trailed on 24%, with the Green party on 10% and the New Zealand First Party, which had been picked as a potential kingmaker, on 9%.

The rightwing family-values Conservative party, on 4.3%, looked unlikely to make the 5% threshold that is required to enter parliament by any party without an electorate seat.

The Internet-Mana party, backed and bankrolled by German entrepreneur Kim Dotcom, was sitting on 1.3%, well below the threshold but enough to bring in two MPs should Mana leader Hone Harawira hold on to his seat, Te Tai Tokerau. That result was hanging the balance, with Harawira narrowly trailing his Labour opponent at the halfway mark.

Dotcom, currently being sought for extradition from New Zealand by the US, brokered the strategic alliance of the Internet Party with leftwing Maori-focused Mana party with the express purpose of removing John Key’s government.

National, which has centred its campaign on a record of stable economic growth, will hope to again form a government with support from a handful of tiny parties, the Maori Party, ACT and United Future, who between them are on course to win four seats, even if they secure enough of the party vote to form an absolute parliamentary majority and rule alone.

Should National suffer a late drop in support, however, they may yet be forced to open discussions with New Zealand First, led by the veteran MP Winston Peters, who has in the past struck post-election deals with both National and Labour.

Labour had hoped it might build a government encompassing Greens and NZ First, but the party, beleaguered by infighting in the leadup to the campaign, are more likely to face a period of introspection, with a number of senior MPs on the brink of losing their places in parliament.

There was not yet any sign of a concession from Labour leader David Cunliffe, but in his last interview before the polls opened, he told TV3 it had been “the craziest and in some ways the most unfortunate campaign in recorded memory”. It had been “really difficult for opposition parties to get a word in on the issues that matter to most Kiwis”.

Conventional policy arguments have been squeezed to the edges of the campaign, with two major controversies dominating headlines and putting Key on the defensive. The release of a book by Nicky Hager, Dirty Politics, described links between senior figures in the National party and the rightwing attack-blog Whale Oil.

Further fuel was added to the fire with the repeated release of hacked online correspondence, upon which the book had drawn, by a mysterious character called “Rawshark”. The revelations led ultimately to the resignation of the justice minister.

Just as the campaign was beginning to regain some normalcy, another intervention stole the spotlight. Hosted by Dotcom, journalist Glenn Greenwald’s arrived in New Zealand promising to disprove Key’s denial that mass surveillance was undertaken by local intelligence agencies.

Key denied the claim, dismissing Greenwald a conspiracy theorist, a “henchman” for Dotcom, and even a “loser”.

The controversy culminated in an event billed by Dotcom as “the Moment of Truth” at the Auckland Town Hall on Monday night, with Greenwald joined on the big screen by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

The revelations from Snowden and Greenwald were muddied by Kim Dotcom’s failure to provide the evidence he had promised to unveil showing that John Key had colluded with Hollywood lobbyists in planning for his extradition.

Mike Williams, a former Labour party president, said that of the almost 40 elections that he had been involved in, local and national, none compared to this latest campaign.

“I’ve been to some bizarre places, I’ve been to a Northern Territory [Australia] election, and they take a bit of beating, but I’ve never seen anything like this. There’s been almost no contest of ideas.”

Labour, said Williams, had “spun their wheels” as the scandals dominated. “I’m not quite certain why. David Cunliffe performed adequately, or a bit better than adequately, in the face to face debates. My guess is he kind of lacks a warmth. There’s something missing.

“I think there has been an erosion of trust in the National Party government, there would have to be, but any benefit has really gone to the Greens, Winston [of the NZ First Party] and Colin Craig [of the Conservatives].”

Despite wet and blustery weather across large parts of the country, voter turnout appeared to be holding strong, boosted by a surge in the number of people taking advantage of the opportunity to vote early. Almost a quarter of all registered voters chose to cast their ballot in the days leading up to Saturday.