Last season, I did a points projection article for the PDL’s South Atlantic Division. Today, I am proud to bring back the points projection model, but this time for the NPSL’s Southeast Conference Division in an attempt to predict the final table for the division, especially as we enter the homestretch of the 2018 season.

The formula to calculate the projected final points total for any team was developed by Evan Eyster of Indomitable City Soccer — he can be at @IronPonyChef on Twitter.

The formula takes into account a club’s strength of schedule and the points per game earned by past and future opponents in an attempt to better predict the final points of a club. If a club has played an easier schedule in the past, they can be expected to earn fewer points in the future due to a harder schedule. Vice versa, a harder schedule in the past will see a club face an easier slate of matches in the future, and thus be expected to earn more points.

Below are the current and projected final tables for the Southeast Conference Division, with all stats as of June 22nd. At least one of our Carolina teams won’t be thrilled with the results.

And with the Carolina Classico tonight between Asheville City and Greenville FC, we can expect the playoff race to begin to heat up as we reach the tail end of the season.

Current Standings

End of Season Projected Table

1. Chattanooga FC: 26.97

2. NOLA Jesters: 24.57 points

3. Asheville City SC: 21.11 points

4. Atlanta Silverbacks: 20.30 points

5. Inter Nashville FC; 19.72 points

6. Georgia Revolution: 16.37 points

7. Emerald Force: 14.17 points

8. Greenville FC: 13.33 points

Schedules

Easiest Schedule to Date: Atlanta Silverbacks (1.29)

Hardest Schedule to Date: Emerald Force (1.50)

Easiest Schedule Ahead: Chattanooga FC (1.29)

Hardest Schedule Ahead: Greenville FC (1.62)

(In parentheses is average points gained per game by opponents).

Projected Playoff Picture

#1 Chattanooga and #2 NOLA Jesters would get byes into the semi-finals.

First Round

#3 Asheville City v #6 Georgia Revolution

#4 Atlanta Silverbacks v # Inter Nashville FC

Thoughts

Chattanooga, despite their loss to the New Orleans Jesters last Saturday, remain in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the Southeast Conference Division. With their hardest matches behind them, Chattanooga face the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the division. Aside from their home-and-home with the Atlanta Silverbacks left on the schedule, Chattanooga does not face a side above 5th in the table for the rest of the season.

I expect Chattanooga to barely edge NOLA for the top spot in the division, and finish comfortably in a top two spot.

With two wins in their last five matches, Asheville City sit in third place of the predicted table, projected to finish with 21.11 points at the season end. Just 1.39 projected points separate Asheville in 3rd and Inter Nashville in 5th, making these final few weeks crucial for AVL in clinching a home playoff match.

A double home-and-home with Greenville FC and NOLA Jesters will go a long way in determining the fate of the Western North Carolina club.

Greenville FC is more than halfway through their maiden campaign in NPSL, and they currently sit 7th in the table, a spot out of the playoffs.

It does not help the South Carolina side that they face the hardest remaining schedule of any club in the division. With matches coming against three of the current top four clubs, it will be a difficult task for Greenville to face the top sides of the division. A sign of good news for Greenville is their past matches against Chattanooga and New Orleans, who they drew and beat respectively earlier in the season.

If Greenville can replicate that play in the coming weeks, I would not be surprised to find the South Carolina club in the heart of the playoff race.

As mentioned before, tonight marks the first ever “Carolina Classico” Derby, as Asheville prepares to host their Carolina foes for the first time this season. With playoff implications at stake for each club, it should a thrilling match in North Carolina tonight that could go a long way in deciding the fates of our Carolina clubs for the remainder of the season.

I hope both supporters enjoy the match tonight, making a storied first step in what will become a good derby for the league. Best of luck to both sides at Memorial Stadium tonight!

Be sure to follow @SoccerNSweetTea on Twitter for the latest articles on everything Carolina soccer and our coverage from the first-ever Carolina Classico, and you can find myself on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan. Thank you for reading!