The New England Patriots have bucked their own wisdom for the second consecutive draft. In both 2018 and 2019 Bill Belichick spent a day one or day two pick on a running back. Last year it was Sony Michel in the first round. This year it was Damien Harris in the third. For years New England would turn players like James White, Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis into more than serviceable backs.

The times have changed.

Where Belichick once saw cheap value he now sees opportunity. In a league where the spread offense has dictated everyone weigh less and run faster, the Patriots are trotting out a traditional fullback and investing premium draft capital into the RB position.

Last week, we debuted our series of taking an in-depth look at New England’s roster. We started with the offensive line, and are onto the running backs. With an aging quarterback, and consecutive drafts investing in running backs and offensive linemen, the Patriots appear to be transitioning to a power run offense. The philosophy blew the doors of the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Divisional round before it grinded out a victory over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.

Will the Patriots return to action in 2019 with a group of running backs capable of making them the first repeat Super Bowl champions since, well, themselves?

Sony Michel

The NFL’s foremost “you can find a running back anywhere” team pulled a complete 180 when they spent a first-round pick on Michel in 2018. While running backs can be easily replaced, Belichick clearly saw something in Michel he had to have.

Michel appeared in 13 regular season games as a rookie. While his counting stats were OK (931 yards, 6 touchdowns, 4.5 yards per carry), the advanced metrics were not as flattering.

Stat Rank among RB DYAR 24 DVOA 26 AV T-16 PFF Grade 19

By the metrics, Michel was a middle or below-average starting caliber RB. What really hurts his value is he adds nothing in the passing game. During the regular season, Michel logged 7 receptions for 50 yards on just 11 targets. Based on the evidence, this is an issue:

“A recent study from Pro Football Focus found that the four RB measurements that best predict team wins in the following year are PFF pass-blocking grade, pass blocking efficiency, yards per receiving route run, and PFF receiving grade. That’s right: RBs only help their teams win to the extent that they matter in the passing game.”

On the flip side, the Patriots rode Michel to a Super Bowl crown. In the postseason, Michel totaled 336 yards and six touchdowns in three games. In the biggest moment of their season, New England continuously fed Michel.

After Stephon Gilmore‘s interception in the Super Bowl, starting from their of 4-yard line, the Patriots ran the ball eight consecutive times. Michel received seven of those carries. That is quite the vote of confidence in your rookie RB.

Michel isn’t a top end starting back, at least not yet. He does, however, figure to fill his role admirably in 2019.

In other words, he will do his job.

James White

Circling back to how running backs help their team win to the extent they matter in the passing game, White is the Patriots most important running back. The Super Bowl LI MVP runner-up (we’re going to just pretend this is a thing) has now topped at least 40 receptions for four consecutive seasons.

Since the beginning of 2015, White has amassed 243 receptions, 2,141 receiving yards, and 19 receiving touchdowns. Among the running back position during that time frame, those numbers rank 2nd, 2nd, and 1st, respectively. It is not hyperbolic to say White has been the most productive receiving back in the NFL the past four seasons.

It goes beyond counting stats as well. From 2015-2018, White ranked 4th, 3rd, 13th, and 3rd, respectively, in receiving DYAR among running backs with a minimum of 25 receptions in each individual season.

Again circling back to the PFF study, “Rush efficiency explains only 4.4% of the variance in wins. You might as well guess randomly […] Pass efficiency explains 62% of the variance in wins in the NFL.” Not only is White uber-productive, but he affects the portion of the game that has a much stronger correlation to winning.

White’s receiving stats over the past four years average out to 60.75 receptions, 535.35 yards, and 4.75 touchdowns annually. It’s a good bet White will outpace those numbers in 2019. Given the current state of the Patriots receiver and tight end depth charts, Tom Brady is low on weaponry and will likely be seeking familiar faces on Sunday afternoons. White may be heavily leaned on in the absence of the typical dynamic receiving threats previous iterations of New England usually deployed.

Rex Burkhead

Rex Burkhead is one of the most interesting running backs in the NFL. Since the departure of Blount, Burkhead has been used as the hammer back. This is also a result of the Mike Gillislee signing not working out as planned. Given Burkhead’s 215 pound frame and receiving abilities, he does not fit the stereotype of a power back.

Yet once the Patriots got to the Kansas City Chiefs 15-yard line in the AFC Championship, Burkhead got the ball to pound in the game-winning touchdown. Burkhead received three straight carries from that point. He capped it off with a goal-line carry from two-yards out that sent New England to the Super Bowl.

Burkhead is another receiving back who may see an uptick in production in 2019. In 18 regular season games as a member of the Patriots, he has compiled 44 receptions, 385 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. For his career, Burkhead has a 77.2% catch rate on 101 targets.

Having an effective power back with the receiving abilities of Burkhead is a rare commodity in the NFL. That combination, however, does make him a perfect fit for the ever shape-shifting Patriots.

Damien Harris

After the uncharacteristic selection of Michel in the first round of 2018, Belichick bizarrely spent a day two pick on another running back in 2019. Harris was extremely productive during his time at Alabama. He left school with 3,073 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns. He did so on a 6.5 yards per carry average across 476 carries. In addition, Harris did well as a receiver, leaving school with 407 yards and two touchdowns on 52 receptions.

The 216 pound back is not explosive, but he is a strong and instinctive runner. He displays instincts and balance to go along with his versatility at the position. While it is odd Belichick used another premium draft asset on a RB a year after taking Michel, it doesn’t take long to see why Belichick was such a fan of Harris.

It’s possible Harris was brought in to relieve Burkhead of his power back duties. However, given that Harris, already boasting a similar skillset to Burkhead, is Burkhead’s size, it’s not hard to imagine Harris was drafted in anticipation of Burkhead being released ahead of the 2020 season.

Regardless of what the future holds, Harris can contribute now. Harris doesn’t attempt to do more than he is capable. He runs knowing full well what his strengths are. He figures to have a very defined role on the 2019 Patriots. Given his success performing in a defined role at Alabama, Harris will be able to do his job in New England.

Overall

The Patriots have depth at the RB position with four quality runners. Three of them are viable receiving threats, while one is a top tier receiving back. New England, ostensibly, appears to be transitioning to a power run team. They have invested resources into the offensive line and RB position as Brady continues to age.

While everything we know tells us the NFL is a league where passing reigns supreme, Belichick has once again decided to zig while everyone zags. The long term viability of being a running team doesn’t appear to be sustainable. On the other hand, the Patriots primarily ran their way through the playoffs and to their sixth Super Bowl title.

No matter what Belichick is expecting out of the running back position in 2019, he has the tools to get what he wants from it.