The Rim Runners

DeAndre Jordan: +0.5/+3.5, 34mpg, 4 VORP

Tyson Chandler: +1/+2.5, 32mpg, 3 VORP

Clint Capela: +1/+2, 30mpg, 2.5 VORP

Jarrett Allen: -0.5/+3, 26mpg, 2.5 VORP

Robin Lopez: +0.5/+1.5, 29mpg, 2.5 VORP

Mason Plumlee: 0/+3, 23mpg, 2 VORP

Cody Zeller: 0/+2, 25mpg, 2 VORP

Hassan Whiteside: -2/+2.5, 28mpg, 1.5 VORP

Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, Larry Sanders!, Nerlens Noel, Chris “Birdman” Andersen, JaVale McGee: all in the 1 to 1.5 VORP range

And here we come to the crux of it all: the rim runners. Rim runner has become an increasingly popular designation for centers, the sort of center every fan thinks they want. Maybe it’s because it’s so easy to define as a role. Take a tall, athletic, pogo-stick dude and let them block shots on one end and catch lobs on the other. Done and done.

But take a look at the numbers and compare them to the other center buckets, and you’ll immediately see a lot of problems with rim runners. They are clearly the worst center type. Why? Look at the list. The first thing you notice is the lower VORP numbers. Only DeAndre Jordan qualifies as a great center from this bucket, and he still falls short of superstar level (even if he made First Team All-NBA in a weird year). Even the best modern rim runner is still just very good at defense and minimally impactful on offense. From there it drops off quickly to lots of guys in the 2-to-2.5 VORP range, which, remember, is not far from a replacement-level center.

It gets worse. Check out the minutes per game. Most of these guys fail to cross the 30-minute mark. And if you checked their games played, you’ll find that many frequently miss time to injury — which makes sense when you consider the sort of body frame a typical rim runner has, a slender 7-foot frame without a ton of muscle or weight compared to the other centers. Suddenly you’re getting 27mpg for 60 games instead of 32mpg for 75, so the bigger centers are playing almost 50% more minutes in a season.

Notice the overall lack of production, too. Most of the good rim runners fall in the 2-to-3 DBPM range. That makes them average to above average among centers on defense but falls well short of great. Offensively, no one here clears a +1 OBPM, meaning the best outcome is average, mostly forgettable production, while some are worse than that. Add it all up and you get average defense and average or worse offense for limited minutes in limited games. Woof.

It gets worse, still. Many of those rim runners took awhile to hit their lenghty stride in the NBA, probably because it took awhile to gain enough strength for their bodies to hold up. Some of them didn’t provide any real value on their rookie deal. Many bounced around as journeymen. Most of them also saw a sharp decline and shorter overall careers once the injuries added up and their freakish athleticism waned. Even the two best rim runners fit. DeAndre Jordan was awful his first two years and below replacement level three more before finally breaking out in year six, and he appears to be in serious decline at age 30. Tyson Chandler was better early for Chicago but didn’t stick and never really found an NBA home, bouncing around the league, even with that impressive title run in Dallas. You might note, too, that that Mavs title for Chandler is the only real standout playoff performance among rim runners, unless you want to count Birdman and JaVale.

And there’s the nail in the coffin. The NBA is littered with 7-foot athletes like Birdman and JaVale that will play for the minimum and log useful rim runner minutes — at no cost to a team, really. They’re worth about 1.5 VORP. The good rim runners, the best ones really, are still only around a 2.5 VORP value.

That’s precious little added value considering the investment of salary cap, time invested developing them, and the draft capital spent. Consider Clint Capela. Capela was the 25th pick in the 2014 draft and we think of him as a draft steal now. But what value has Capela actually brought the Rockets? He was unplayable as a rookie and below replacement level in year two and year three. Last year he finally provided value with a 2.6 VORP season at $2.3 million in the final year of his rookie deal, but then he signed a 5-year $90-million extension. He was just as good this year, but he cost the Rockets over $15 million, or put another way, he cost them Trevor Ariza. And then when it got to the playoffs, Capela’s impact faded and he became unplayable at times. Fast forward a month and Capela and his inflated salary are on the chopping block. Three years of development and a first-round draft pick yielded one valuable season, and now Capela is overpaid and may not be a big part of the team’s future plans. And remember, Capela is one of the best rim runners.

All of this looks like bad news for Jaxson Hayes and whichever team invests a first-round pick on him. Like Capela and others on this list, Hayes has all the physical tools and potential. And like the others, he comes to the NBA extremely raw, a project that will likely take several years of development. He also brings a frail frame that could hurt his upside on minutes and games played. Maybe Jaxson fulfills all that potential and becomes one of the league’s best rim runners. If he does, it’ll likely cost his team a first rounder, several million in cap the next few years as a mostly unplayable development project, and a hefty contract extension just when he starts getting good, all for a player type that hasn’t held its value. If a team really wants a rim runner center, why not just draft Arkansas’s Daniel Gafford a full round later — or just sign one of the many minimum-cost free agents off the scrap heap?

It’s bad news for Mo Bamba believers, too. The hope for Bamba and Hayes believers is that these guys become more than just rim runners and move up into the Defense-First bucket. We have really only one or two such examples: Rudy Gobert and Marcus Camby. Camby might have been an all-time rim runnr in the modern NBA. Instead he was terrible on offense without a real role, so we never fully appreciated his absurd defensive prowess. That leaves us with just Gobert, whose defense is historically good and whose offense has expanded beyond just rim running.

And maybe that will be Bamba or Hayes too. Maybe they’ll break the rim runner mold and become the next Gobert. Perhaps they add the strength to play heavy NBA minutes and stay on the court in the playoffs (questionable, even with Gobert). Maybe players like Hayes or New York’s Mitchell Robinson expand the role of a rim runner by adding lateral ability to defend on the perimeter and increase their DBPM score and defensive and overall value.

Robinson already looks incredibly valuable for the Knicks — but remember, part of his value is that he felt like a freebie addition in the second round last year, a full round after Ayton, Bamba, Jackson, Carter, and Marvin Bagley all went in the top seven. Already it looks like Robinson will be at least the second or third most valuable asset from that bunch. He’s signed for around $1.5 million for three more seasons, already good, and cost WAY less draft capital. Would you rather have Ayton or Bagley than Robinson? Maybe. But would you rather trade your #1 or #2 pick down a handful of times, gather all those extra assets, and then take Robinson in the second round? Most definitely. It’s a guaranteed better payout and investment.