This is just one improved poll and Labor's lead is still election-winning, but politics is a momentum and confidence game and this result will matter greatly as Parliament resumes. Already Turnbull's communication style has changed: last week he noticeably upped the number of media interviews he gave and on the weekend he returned to his former strength of using social media to communicate directly as opposed to issuing digital press releases. Labor accused the PM of waging a Trump-style tweet rant but this was hardly the case. Trump's tweets are often abusive or insulting, factually wrong and trivial. Turnbull was issuing a firm but respectful denial of a story to ensure that his comments framed subsequent reporting of the claim he is planning to cut the pension. [AAP] (Turnbull's former social media advisor, the talented Tom Tudehope, has recently rejoined his old boss.) Wiser heads in Labor know just how much Bill Shorten has been getting away with as the government's transaction costs of the September 2015 leadership change have continued to add up. If there is even a whiff that the Coalition is competitive, the dynamics are going to change for Shorten.

Also, Bill Shorten's approvals are tracking down while the PM's are going up. Labor will be choosing to focus instead on two ReachTel polls published today. The new ACTU secretary Sally McManus is promising "extraordinary" results from a poll of WA voters on penalty rates.

But Turnbull is prepared and will attack Bill Shorten for union-negotiated pay deals that lead to lower pay for workers at fast-food outlets. [Andrew Clennell/The Daily Telegraph] And Fairfax has published data commissioned by Australians for Equality showing a majority of voters in 12 Coalition-held seats would say "yes" to gay marriage. [James Massola, Stephanie Peatling] Publicly, Turnbull is sticking to his plebiscite promise but this position is untenable. Even influential conservatives know they don't want this issue on the agenda going into the next federal election. Add in a prime minister starting to feel comfortable in projecting leadership, and the ingredients for a shift are there. On this, Michelle Grattan takes a forensic and searing look at Immigration Minister Peter Dutton's recent bouts of positioning to be the conservative flag-bearer in the party. [The Conversation]

Graham Richardson believes the split that would cause within the government would guarantee the coalition "electoral rout." [The Australian] Paul Keating is in full flight against the junior minister Michael Sukkar's tentative proposal for homebuyers to use their super to buy a house. [Oped/Fairfax] The government will release a multicultural statement on Monday saying the idea is only a success if all migrants sign up to Australian values. [Jane Norman/ABC] And this is a really interesting piece from Anthony Albanese. Around the world, craft alcoholic beverages, including gins and beers, are booming. But he says in Australia the system screws the local would-be brewer. Albo, who has a craft beer named after him (I tried it during our Facebook Live interview last year and no comment), wants the system changed to boost exports and tourism. [Oped/Fairfax] 2. Trade/Trump

A very big thing happened over the weekend: the G20 dropped its rejection of protectionism despite urgings against doing so from Australia and China. [Jacob Greber/The Australian Financial Review] "No one is sure what comes next," reports Johanna Treeck from the meeting of finance ministers at Baden-Baden. [Politico.eu] China's vice premier has reiterated Beijing's support for global trade, saying "we cannot stop our footsteps because of temporary difficulties." [Reuters] 3. Germany hits back at Trump US President Donald Trump had an awkward first meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Credit:AP

Germany rejects Trump's claim that Berlin owes the US and NATO "vast" sums of money for underspending on defence. [The Washington Post] Martin Schulz has been nominated as the Social Democratic Party's candidate to challenge Angela Merkel. The SDP is polling just about level with Merkel's CDU and is pushing a strong anti-Trump line. [Deutsche Welle] 4. British politics Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is softening her stance on the timetable for a second independence referendum. [ITV News] George Osborne MP. Credit:Simon Dawson

But British politics is consumed with the extraordinary news that former chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, is going to edit the popular London Evening Standard newspaper. Osborne, former prime minister David Cameron's right-hand man, was dumped from the cabinet when Theresa May took over. Another minister sacked in the fallout was Nicky Morgan, who says Osborne's new job, in addition to his role as an MP, will show that liberal-conservative voices will be heard. An ominous comment given the Tory backbench is the real opposition in Britain. [BBC] 5. French elections French presidential frontrunner Emmanuel Macron. Credit:AP

Polling shows Emmanuel Macron is on track to win the French presidential elections in second round run-off with far-right Front National leader Marine Le Pen. The security incident at Orly airport on Saturday has placed national security once more at the top of the election campaign. [Reuters] 6. Middle East Fighting between rebels and the Syrian army has broken out on the edges of Damascus. [Al-Arabiya] While in Mosul, Iraqi forces continue to make progress. [Iraqi News]

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