The euphoria started quickly after Elliott, who rushed for 3,961 yards and 43 touchdowns during his three years at Ohio State, was selected fourth overall by the Cowboys in this year’s NFL draft. Just a few days later, Elliott was being chosen 39th overall in mock drafts before quickly rising into his current spot of eighth overall in 12-team, standard-scoring leagues. In PPR leagues, he drops slightly to No. 11.

But does Elliott deserve to be drafted so high before taking a single snap at the NFL level? The majority of experts certainly think so. His average ranking among 72 prognosticators tracked by Fantasy Pros is 10th overall and fourth at the position in standard scoring leagues behind Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Adrian Peterson, with at least one person rating Elliott as the top running back in the draft.

Some of the optimism surrounding Elliott is driven by the team for which he plays.

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Football Outsiders ranked the Cowboys’ run-blocking unit sixth best overall in 2015 after it allowed its rusher to be stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage just 17 percent of the time, while the game charters at Pro Football Focus listed the Cowboys’ offensive line at No. 1 in the NFL heading into 2016, noting that the line has a chance to become “historically great.”

Dallas also has a favorable schedule for its rushers early in the season — the easiest, according to Warren Sharpe, among all NFL teams through Week 9.

Plus, Elliott’s above-average pass-blocking skills — he didn’t allow a sack, hit or even a hurry on 103 pass-blocking snaps for Ohio State in 2015 — should have him on the field for a majority of third downs.

So it’s settled! Elliott is a slam-dunk first-round pick, right?

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Not exactly.

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In 1,134 fantasy football mock drafts held between Aug. 9 and Aug. 11, six running backs, including Elliott, are being taken in the first round. Over the past five seasons, the sixth-highest-scoring back has produced at least 185 fantasy points. Since the merger of 1970, just 42 out of 1,493 (2.8 percent) running backs selected in the NFL draft have produced over 185 fantasy points under today’s standard scoring system as rookies. That means out of the 23 rushers taken in the 2016 draft, one (actually, a fraction of a running back if we want to be technical) should meet or exceed the 185-point threshold. Even if you use the success rate from 2004 to 2008, when 6.1 percent of rookies met or exceeded the 185-point mark, you’d still expect to see fewer than two running backs to produce at least 185 fantasy points in 2016.

Maybe that includes Elliott, maybe it doesn’t. Rookies such as Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and Baltimore’s Kenneth Dixon could figure prominently in their team’s plans, giving them a shot at the 185-point mark. Seattle’s C.J. Prosise, who is emerging as the team’s third-down specialist, could also be within striking distance of the position’s top tier.

Obviously, the 2.8 percent demarcation can fluctuate from season to season — there’s no hard cap on who can surpass the 185-point threshold — but those odds are real and they are not good.

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If that doesn’t scare you away, how about this: Consensus projections have Elliott averaging 188 fantasy points in 2016, with a horrifying low of 127.9. The most pessimistic projections for Gurley (163.3), Johnson (149.9) and Peterson (183.8) are all higher. Even Le’Veon Bell, a projected first-round pick who will miss the first four games of the regular season, has a floor of 173.1 points.

In contrast, the highest projection for Elliott is 214.7 points, on par with LeSean McCoy (212.3) Devonta Freeman (202.7), both mid-to-late second-round picks in recent mock drafts.