Midterm voters remain frustrated and unhappy with the state of the economy. POLITICO poll: Economic malaise

If the nation’s economy is on the mend, the voters of 2014 aren’t feeling it.

Despite continued signs of a halting but persistent national comeback, midterm voters remain frustrated and unhappy with the state of the economy, according to the latest POLITICO poll of likely voters in 2014 battleground states. Many appear to blame President Barack Obama: 57 percent of these voters disapprove of his economic leadership.


By every measure in the survey, a gloomy mood still pervades the electorate when it comes to kitchen-table issues: Just 23 percent say their personal financial situation has improved over the past year, versus 30 percent who say it has gotten worse.

Democrats had initially envisioned 2014 as a year when their candidates could hail the fruits of an economic turnaround. For a time, a handful of impressive monthly employment reports bolstered their hopes.

( The latest POLITICO polling data)

But while the economy has improved, it has not yet taken flight: Unemployment remains above 6 percent, and in August the country gained just 142,000 jobs. Candidates around the country have tempered their claims of economic improvement, including Republican governors who also initially aimed to run on their records of job creation.

Strong majorities now say that they lack the savings to grapple with an unforeseen job loss (61 percent) and that the cost of basic household items like gas and groceries has strained their finances (62 percent.)

Neither party has established a clear advantage in the midterm economic debate: In the states and congressional districts most likely to decide control of Congress, voters were evenly split over which party they trust more to handle the economy, with 36 percent choosing Democrats and an equal proportion choosing Republicans.

Twenty-eight percent were unsure, indicating the issue remains an important jump ball in the current election and beyond.

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Nicole Chapman of Egg Harbor Township, New Jersey, said she hasn’t yet decided which party she’ll vote for but that the economy and taxes are her overarching concerns.

“It’s getting worse across the board. Only the people that have the silver spoons are the ones it’s going well for,” said Chapman, a 38-year-old child care provider. She doesn’t pin responsibility on Obama, who she said is doing “the best that he can possibly do, with Congress not wanting to work with him.”

North Carolina Republican Dale Nelson, 52, said the economy and the nation’s unsecured border loom large in his political thinking. “The economy’s really slow compared to what it could be,” said Nelson, who works at a bank. “I blame the policies of the president and the Democratic Party right now.”

The poll, designed by SocialSphere Inc. and conducted by the research firm GfK, tested 917 likely voters in competitive U.S. House and Senate races. The poll was conducted online using GfK’s KnowledgePanel methodology, which is also employed by The Associated Press. The poll ran from Aug. 29-Sept. 7 and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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Because the poll tests the views of voters in areas that are up for grabs in 2014, the snapshot likely represents a somewhat more conservative population — including states such as Kansas, Arkansas, Georgia and West Virginia — than the country as a whole.

The two parties were closely matched on the 2014 ballot, with 42 percent of likely voters planning to vote Democratic and 41 percent picking Republicans.

That’s a slight shift in the Democratic direction since July, when a POLITICO poll showed Republicans with a 2-point edge. But the movement can largely be explained by a shift in the polling sample: Since the poll tests only states and congressional districts that are the most competitive in the country, that list now includes more Democratic-leaning seats. Several battleground districts tested in POLITICO’s previous polls were not included this time because they have moved safely into the Republican column.

It’s not just the geography of 2014 that’s shifting as Election Day draws nearer; so is the set of issues that voters have homed in on as they make up their minds.

More than a third of voters identify economic issues, such as job creation and economic inequality, as their top concern in 2014 — the largest subset of issues weighing on the midterm electorate.

But amid international instability and violence stretching from Ukraine to Syria and beyond, voters are also showing renewed interest in national security: 22 percent identified security, terrorism or foreign affairs as their top worries, up from just 6 percent in May.

Meanwhile, the intensity of voters’ opposition to the Affordable Care Act — one of the most important drivers of the midterm debate earlier this year — has continued to fade over the course of the election cycle.

In May, 48 percent of likely midterm voters told POLITICO they favored repeal of the president’s signature health care law, while 51 percent supported making tweaks to the law or leaving it completely intact.

Now, those numbers have shifted to just 44 percent who favor outright repeal and 55 percent who are inclined to make revisions to “Obamacare” or leave the law unchanged.

Support for immigration reform, meanwhile, has dropped amid increased attention to the nation’s unsecured border and the influx of tens of thousands of undocumented minors, now held in government custody.

A solid majority of 66 percent still supports “comprehensive immigration reform,” but voters in these midterm states appear increasingly suspicious of efforts to liberalize the immigration system. Only 51 percent back creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, while 49 percent oppose it.

A significant plurality, 49 percent, said that undocumented immigrant children should be sent back to their countries of origin. Only 29 percent said they should be allowed to stay in the United States.

That means there’s still considerable backing for an immigration overhaul, of the kind the White House has proposed and the U.S. Senate has endorsed. But the apparently overwhelming consensus in favor of such measures has fractured since the start of the year.

Today, only 35 percent of voters said they approve of how Obama has handled immigration.

David Marcotte, a disabled veteran in Bethlehem, New Hampshire, said the “border not being secure” was his chief voting issue in 2014.

“That’s a real big one, that we’re just vulnerable with more illegal drugs coming into the nation, more illegal aliens. Who knows what diseases they can bring across,” said Marcotte, 48, who also voiced dismay about the economy. “It’s not doing that great. Not when you’re paying almost $4 for milk.”

Several metrics of national gloom have remained stable throughout the year: 54 percent of respondents said the country is on the wrong track, a number essentially unchanged since May. Voters are divided almost down the middle as to whether they feel more optimistic (47 percent) or pessimistic (52 percent) about the outlook for the U.S. over the next few years.

And while their contempt for politicians is evident across the board, they reserve a special category of distrust for congressional Republicans.

Midterm battleground voters disapprove of Obama by a 12-point margin, 56 percent to 44 percent, and congressional Democrats by a 30-point margin, 65 percent to 35 percent.

For Republicans, the gap is a towering 46 points: 73 percent disapprove of their performance and just 27 percent approve.

Marion Leonard of Mission, Kansas, a 61-year-old retiree, expressed disgust at how the dysfunctional Congress has handled its relationship with the president.

“I am satisfied with what the president is doing. I am disappointed in the Congress, because Congress — the Republicans especially — are looking at his skin color instead of what is best for the country,” Leonard said.