David A. Graham: Republicans know Trump is innocent—they’re trying to figure out why

Second, deposition transcripts have undercut another defense of the president, which is that Ukraine was not aware that U.S. military aid was delayed in connection with the president’s demand for announced investigations, and that therefore there could be no extortion or bribery in the withholding of funds.

Meanwhile, the impeachment inquiry continues to widen. Yesterday, CNN reported that the House is investigating whether Trump lied to Special Counsel Robert Mueller. His account of conversations about WikiLeaks appears to be at odds with testimony offered by Rick Gates, his former deputy campaign chair, in the recent trial of Trump’s longtime adviser Roger Stone, who was convicted of seven felonies last week, related to his obstruction of investigations.

Impeachment is damaging to Trump, of course, though at the moment the chances of his removal by the Senate still seem remote. Electorally, however, Trump has suffered a trio of political blows over the past fortnight. In Kentucky, Republican Governor Matt Bevin hugged Trump close, but he lost to the Democrat Andy Beshear. In Louisiana, the Republican Eddie Rispone failed to unseat Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards, despite Trump holding two rallies in the state in two weeks. And in Virginia, Democrats captured control of both chambers of the state legislature.

There are extenuating circumstances in each of the gubernatorial races: Incumbents like Edwards enjoy an advantage; Bevin was running against the scion of a popular Democratic family. But at rallies for both Republicans, Trump predicted that if his allies lost, it would look bad for him—and he was correct.

On Friday evening, with a series of negative stories weighing on him and the Stone verdict fresh, Trump announced pardons for three members of the armed services who were accused or convicted of war crimes. The move seems to be a way of appealing to some rank-and-file members of the military, though the decisions place him in conflict with his own top leaders, including his defense secretary, who opposed the pardons. Whether the moves will have much political effect is unclear, but they are morally appalling and risk long-term ramifications for American soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines overseas.

Then, over the weekend, Trump made an unannounced, apparently unplanned trip to see a doctor at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. The White House insists that the visit was routine and that Trump is healthy. It is a different sort of problem for Trump if he is unwell, but the fact that few seem willing to take the administration’s explanations for the visit at face value show the credibility crisis that the president confronts—a problem that would be more serious in a national emergency.