The mould-breaking outcome of Turkey’s general election on Sunday will be viewed as a personal rebuff for the president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and as a historic political breakthrough for the country’s 18 million-strong Kurdish minority, which will be represented by a political party in parliament for the first time.

With 88% of votes counted, the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP), which Erdoğan helped to found, appeared to have lost its overall majority, falling just short of the 276 seats required for control of the 550-seat national assembly. Its share of the vote, at around 43%, was well down on the 49% it obtained in 2011.

The AKP had aimed for a total of at least 330 seats, which would have enabled the government to hold a referendum on the constitutional changes that Erdoğan needs in order to create an executive presidency. Erdoğan personally travelled the country trying to boost the AKP vote.

But concerns about a slowing economy, jobs, civil rights and a lack of progress in the Kurdish peace process appear to have combined with worries that Erdoğan could assume quasi-dictatorial powers to thwart the president’s ambitions.

Erdoğan, a three-time prime minister who has wielded power since 2002, now faces the prospect of continuing in the largely ceremonial post of president, to which he was elected last year, while real executive power is in the hands of his protege Ahmet Davutoğlu, the current prime minister.

Parliamentary democracy in Turkey was also a big winner as the pro-Kurdish, secular centre-left grouping, the People’s Democratic party (HDP), appeared to slip past the mandatory 10% threshold for representation with about 11% of the vote. Projections suggested that total would translate into about 74 seats.

Kurds take to the streets in Diyarbakir after a strong showing for the Peoples’ Democratic party. Link to video

This result gives Turkey’s Kurds and the other voters who deserted the AKP and flocked to the HDP banner an unprecedented national platform from which to counter the neo-Islamist AKP’s assault on Turkey’s secular tradition, which has gathered pace in recent years.

The peace process that followed the 2013 ceasefire with the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) may now also receive a much-needed shot in the arm, after a recent period of stalemate and sporadic violence.

But much depends on how Erdoğan, still the most formidable figure in Turkish politics, reacts to this reverse. The president is not known as a good loser, and he is certainly unaccustomed to defeat.

Rumours abounded before the polls that he was planning a new crackdown on journalists and other opponents who criticised him during the campaign. AKP officials spoke of holding another election if they were forced to form a minority government.

Even by his shaky standards, Erdoğan’s behaviour during the campaign was exceptionally boorish. As president, he is expected to adopt a neutral stance. Instead, he barnstormed across the country holding rallies in support of the AKP. The results thus look like a very personal rejection.

Erdoğan directed insults, accusations and threats at his political opponents, female activists, the media, non-Muslims, and ethnic and cultural minorities of all descriptions.

Last week Erdoğan dismissed the HDP as a party of gay people and atheists, a description apparently designed to pander to the prejudices of the AKP’s largely poor, devoutly Muslim working class base. He suggested the HDP supported terrorism and was in league with the PKK.

Erdoğan notably failed to condemn more than 70 reported violent attacks on the HDP’s candidates, rallies and offices. After bombs killed two people and wounded more than 200 at an HDP rally in Diyarbakir, in the mainly Kurdish south-east, on Friday, Selahattin Demirtas, the HDP leader, condemned Erdoğan’s silence.

“He should go to Diyarbakir. Is he not the president of 77 million people? He ought to leave flowers where people were killed,” Demirtas said in Istanbul. Erdoğan later offered condolences but said it was Demirtas who should apologise over Syria-related violence last October.

Erdoğan has also been engaged in a vicious slanging match with opposition media, accusing reporters and commentators who criticise him of being part of a conspiracy to undermine Turkey.

This is a familiar Erdoğan tactic. He often blames developments he dislikes on the so-called “parallel state” supposedly made up of traitors, misfits and miscreants, more often than not in league with Fethullah Gülen, an exiled former ally and fellow Islamist with whom he is now involved in a long-running feud. But this time it seems the ruse didn’t work.

Even allowing for the heightened emotions of a general election campaign, Erdoğan’s extreme behaviour has served to intensify doubts about his reliability and dependability both within Turkey and beyond.

Turkey under Erdoğan has proved a most reluctant ally in the US-Nato fight against Islamic State. It has played a double game over Syria. Its EU accession talks are at a standstill after Erdoğan repeatedly insisted Turkey does not need Europe.

Erdoğan has fallen out with regional leaders from Baghdad to Jerusalem to Cairo. Meanwhile, he has pursued closer ties with Vladimir Putin – a man who, like him, has dictatorial tendencies.

As Sunday’s results confirmed, Erdoğan had a bad campaign and was punished for it. His divisive behaviour was rejected by voters and rebounded on him. He emerges a weakened and diminished figure, with his reputation and influence much reduced.



