Nate Silver crunched the numbers to show just how different each state is in terms of where it is on the curve, and it’s pretty eye-opening.

As they say, THREAD ==>

It really is under-appreciated how different the COVID-19 trajectories look in different states. Here's a quick THREAD with another simple way to summarize the data. Take a 7-day average of a state's newly-reported cases. Where does it compare to a state's peak? — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020

First up, the caveat:

Note: this is not ideal, because it doesn't account for changes in a state's volume of testing. But since testing has been quite stagnant in most states—not a good thing, BTW!—that probably matters less than usual. Where testing is a big factor, I will note that. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020

What’s interesting here is that California along with Illinois, Virginia and DC are at their peak:

While you might look at the national data and think things are going all right, 15 states + DC are *currently* at their peaks. These are:

AR

AZ

CA &

DC

DE

IA

IL

IN

MN

MS

ND

NE

NH

OH

RI *

VA & testing data is murky in CA

* increased testing volume likely a factor in RI — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020

And Connecticut and Massachusetts aren’t much better off:

Another 6 states are not technically at their peaks, but the peak has come within the past week so it's hard to say it's over yet. These are: CT *

KS

KY

MA *

NC

SD * increased testing volume likely a factor in CT & MA — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020

But there is some good news on the way from Georgia and Maryland if things hold up:

5 more states have peaks that occurred a week or more ago, but have fallen by less than 10% from the peak. These are: GA

MD

NM

NJ

UT* * increased testing volume likely a factor in UT So basically, half the states are still at or near their peaks in reported cases. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020

Now for the good news in Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Texas (this puts the Liberate protests Colorado and Michigan in perspective):

8 states have fallen by 10-25% from their peaks. This starts to count as real progress. These are: AL

CO

MI

NV

PA

TX

WV

WI — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020

And here’s Florida, which has become the national punching bag over the limited opening of beaches in Jacksonville:

8 more states have fallen 25-50% from their peaks: FL

ME

MO

NY

OK

OR

TN

SC — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020

Who would’ve expected a few weeks ago that Louisiana would be in the grouping? Note Idaho is on this list, the same state we told you about earlier where mom was arrested at a “playground protest”:

Finally, 8 states have already fallen more than *50%* from their peaks. AK

HI

ID

LA

MT

VT

WA

WY — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020

In summary:

Can you find some patterns here? Sure. Fortunately the states with the very worst outbreaks (NY, MI, LA) are getting better. Weather may be a factor. Density may matter. Some states that never issued stay-at-home orders are having issues. But it's weird & idiosyncratic data. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020

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