updated 7.10.2017 – Simona Halep makes it to WTA no.1 position, we updated numbers accordingly

all data valid on 07.10.2017

I was wondering going through the names of winners of Junior Grand Slam tournaments in 2017. Fokina, Piros, Liu, Anisimova, Kostyuk, Osuigwhe, Popyrin, Wu. How many of them will get to top ten ATP and WTA rankings in coming years?

I wish them all to become ATP/WTA tennis professionals, winning as many tournaments as possible. But how real are their chances? That is the question which bothers me for a long time. Now it is time to get answers.

How we proceed

We downloaded a list of all Boys and Girls Grand Slam Winners from the year 1997 till 2017 (you will find the full list at the end of the article). Then we decided to skip the year 2017 as it is hard to get to ATP and WTA ranking when you play just junior tournaments. So we have data from twenty years [1997 – 2016]* to search. Then we find out best singles ranking for every player in the list. This gives us a pretty good overview what percentage of players winning Junior Grand Slam tournament did make it to ATP or WTA TOP 100, TOP 10 or even to number 1 in singles ranking.

*Somebody can object that to keep the year 2016 in data pool will influence the results negatively. We decided to keep it as the winner of Wimbledon Juniors 2016, Denis Shapovalov made it to top 100 without any problems.

How many winners of Junior Grand Slams do make it to TOP 100, TOP 10 or Number 1 in singles ranking?

In years 1997 to 2016, we watched 80 junior Grand Slam tournaments and got 70 boys and 68 girls names of Grand Slam winners (You will find the full list at the end of the article).

The number is not 80 and 80 because 9 of boys and 11 of girls were able to win junior Grand Slam tournament more than once. One boy (Gael Monfils in 2004) and one girl (Anastasia Pavlyuchenko in 2006 and 2007) even won 3 junior Grand Slams.

Question 1 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners made it to number 1 position in ATP or WTA Singles Ranking?

Boys 3 of 70 4.29% Federer, Murray, Roddick Girls 6 of 68 8.82% Azarenka, Wozniacki, Jankovic, Pliskova Karolina, Henin, Halep

Question 2 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners made it to ATP or WTA TOP 10 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys 16 of 70 22.86% Girls 15 of 68 22.08%

Question 3 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners made it to ATP or WTA TOP 100 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys 42 of 70 60.00% Girls 57 of 68 83.82%

Question 4 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners who won more than once made it to ATP or WTA TOP 10 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys 4 of 9 44.44% Monfils, Roddick, Dimitrov, Gasquet Girls 3 of 11 27.27% Radwanska, Bencic, Azarenka

Question 5 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners who won more than once made it to ATP or WTA TOP 100 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys 7 of 9 77.78% Girls 11 of 11 100%

SUMMARY

Numbers usually do not lie but I am aware of weaknesses of our answers. Tennis is an individual sport and we do not know the personal fate of particular players. We do not know why Filip Peliwo or Luke Saville never made it to ATP TOP 100 after winning 2 Junior Grand Slams. We do not know why Rafa Nadal newer won Junior Grand Slam and despite it become ATP number 1. We do not know what happens to another talented Spaniard Carlos Cuadrado who won Junior French Open in 2001 but never made it to ATP TOP 100.

What we know is that in past 20 years all 11 girls who won Junior Grand Slams more than once made it to WTA TOP 100. Three of them made it even to WTA TOP 10.

We know, that 44% (or 4 of 9) boys who won Junior Grand Slam more than once in past 20 years make it to ATP TOP 10. We also know that 2 of 9 of these boys did not make it to ATP TOP 100.

We know that 60% of boys and 83% of girls who won at least one Junior Grand Slam tournament in past 20 years made it to ATP/WTA TOP 100. More than 20% of winners are able to reach TOP 10 in singles ranking. And 3 boys and 5 girls out of them were able to reach the absolute top, number 1 of singles ranking.

My original question was “How many of 2017 Junior Grand Slam Winners will make it to ATP and WTA TOP 10 Singles Ranking. Statistics give me answer. One of the boys and one of the girls should make it. And two boys and three girls should make it to TOP 100. So better to remember their names. But do they make it in reality? Just time will answer.

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DATA POOL [1997 – 2017]

LIST OF PLAYERS WINNING JUNIOR GRAND SLAM FROM 1997

Player Number of Junior Grand Slams Wins Best ATP ranking reached Gaël Monfils 3 6 Andy Roddick 2 1 Bernard Tomic 2 17 Daniel Elsner 2 92 Donald Young 2 38 Filip Peliwo 2 223 Grigor Dimitrov 2 8 Luke Saville 2 152 Richard Gasquet 2 7 Agustín Velotti 1 290 Alexander Zverev 1 4 Alexandre Sidorenko 1 168 Andrey Kuznetsov 1 38 Andrey Rublev 1 37 Andy Murray 1 1 Arnaud di Pascale 1 39 Bjorn Fratangelo 1 99 Borna Ćorić 1 33 Brydan Klein 1 118 Carlos Cuadrado 1 222 Clément Morel 1 387 Daniel Berta 1 637 David Nalbandian 1 3 Denis Shapovalov 1 51 Dušan Lojda 1 161 Félix Auger-Aliassime 1 161 Fernando González 1 5 Florin Mergea 1 243 Geoffrey Blancaneaux 1 289 Gianluigi Quinzi 1 226 Gilles Müller 1 21 Guillermo Coria 1 3 Christian Garín 1 187 Jack Sock 1 14 Janko Tipsarević 1 8 Jarkko Nieminen 1 13 Jérémy Chardy 1 25 Jiří Veselý 1 35 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1 5 Julien Jeanpierre 1 133 Jürgen Melzer 1 8 Kimmer Coppejans 1 97 Kristian Pless 1 65 Marcos Baghdatis 1 8 Marin Čilić 1 5 Martin Kližan 1 24 Márton Fucsovics 1 99 Nick Kyrgios 1 13 Nicolas Mahut 1 37 Noah Rubin 1 163 Oliver Anderson 1 639 Oliver Golding 1 327 Omar Jasika 1 239 Paul-Henri Mathieu 1 12 Reilly Opelka 1 125 Ričardas Berankis 1 50 Roger Federer 1 1 Roman Safiullin 1 314 Roman Valent 1 300 Ryan Sweeting 1 64 Stanislas Wawrinka 1 3 Taylor Fritz 1 53 Thiemo de Bakker 1 40 Tiago Fernandes 1 371 Todd Reid 1 105 Tommy Paul 1 157 Vladimir Ignatic 1 129 Wesley Whitehouse 1 214 Yang Tsung-hua 1 164 Yuki Bhambri 1 88

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Player Number of Junior Grand Slams Wins Best WTA ranking reached Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 3 13 Agnieszka Radwańska 2 2 Ana Konjuh 2 20 Angelique Widjaja 2 55 Barbora Strýcová 2 16 Belinda Bencic 2 7 Cara Black 2 31 Kirsten Flipkens 2 13 María Emilia Salerni 2 65 Victoria Azarenka 2 1 Virginie Razzano 2 16 Ágnes Szávay 1 995 Alizé Cornet 1 11 An-Sophie Mestach 1 98 Anastasia Potapova 1 234 Anikó Kapros 1 44 Anna-Lena Grönefeld 1 14 Annika Beck 1 37 Arantxa Rus 1 61 Ashleigh Barty 1 23 Caroline Wozniacki 1 1 Coco Vandeweghe 1 16 Dalma Gálfi 1 136 Daria Gavrilova 1 20 Daria Kasatkina 1 24 Elina Svitolina 1 3 Elizaveta Kulichkova 1 87 Eugenie Bouchard 1 5 Grace Min 1 97 Heather Watson 1 38 Iroda Tulyaganova 1 16 Jelena Dokić 1 4 Jelena Janković 1 1 Jelena Kostanić 1 32 Jeļena Ostapenko 1 8 Justine Henin 1 1 Kaia Kanepi 1 15 Karolína Plíšková 1 1 Katarina Srebotnik 1 20 Kateryna Bondarenko 1 29 Kayla Day 1 122 Kristína Kučová 1 71 Kristina Mladenovic 1 12 Kristýna Plíšková 1 35 Ksenia Pervak 1 37 Laura Robson 1 27 Lina Krasnoroutskaya 1 25 Lourdes Domínguez 1 40 Maria Kirilenko 1 10 Marie Bouzková 1 169 Marion Bartoli 1 7 Michaëlla Krajicek 1 30 Mirjana Lucic 1 20 Nadia Petrova 1 3 Noppawan Lertcheewakarn 1 149 Ons Jabeur 1 83 Paula Badosa Gibert 1 193 Rebeka Masarova 1 284 Samantha Crawford 1 98 Sesil Karatantcheva 1 35 Shahar Pe’er 1 11 Simona Halep 1 1 Sofya Zhuk 1 143 Taylor Townsend 1 94 Tereza Mihalíková 1 429 Urszula Radwańska 1 29 Vera Dushevina 1 31 Vera Lapko 1 180

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BOYS WINNERS OF GRAND SLAM TOURNAMENTS FROM THE YEAR 1997

*updated 07/17/2019 with winners for 2018 and 2019

YEAR AUSTRALIAN OPEN FRENCH OPEN WIMBLEDON US OPEN 1997 Daniel Elsner Daniel Elsner Wesley Whitehouse Arnaud di Pasquale 1998 Julien Jeanpierre Fernando González Roger Federer David Nalbandian 1999 Kristian Pless Guillermo Coria Jürgen Melzer Jarkko Nieminen 2000 Andy Roddick Paul-Henri Mathieu Nicolas Mahut Andy Roddick 2001 Janko Tipsarević Carlos Cuadrado Roman Valent Gilles Müller 2002 Clément Morel Richard Gasquet Todd Reid Richard Gasquet 2003 Marcos Baghdatis Stanislas Wawrinka Florin Mergea Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2004 Gaël Monfils Gaël Monfils Gaël Monfils Andy Murray 2005 Donald Young Marin Čilić Jérémy Chardy Ryan Sweeting 2006 Alexandre Sidorenko Martin Kližan Thiemo de Bakker Dušan Lojda 2007 Brydan Klein Vladimir Ignatic Donald Young Ričardas Berankis 2008 Bernard Tomic Yang Tsung-hua Grigor Dimitrov Grigor Dimitrov 2009 Yuki Bhambri Daniel Berta Andrey Kuznetsov Bernard Tomic 2010 Tiago Fernandes Agustín Velotti Márton Fucsovics Jack Sock 2011 Jiří Veselý Bjorn Fratangelo Luke Saville Oliver Golding 2012 Luke Saville Kimmer Coppejans Filip Peliwo Filip Peliwo 2013 Nick Kyrgios Christian Garín Gianluigi Quinzi Borna Ćorić 2014 Alexander Zverev Andrey Rublev Noah Rubin Omar Jasika 2015 Roman Safiullin Tommy Paul Reilly Opelka Taylor Fritz 2016 Oliver Anderson Geoffrey Blancaneaux Denis Shapovalov Félix Auger-Aliassime 2017 Zsombor Piros Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wu Yibing 2018 Sebastian Korda Tseng Chun-Hsin Tseng Chun-Hsin Thiago Seyboth 2019 Lorenzo Musetti HVN Rune Mochizuki Shintaro Jonas Forejtek

Source: Wikipedia

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GIRLS WINNERS OF GRAND SLAM TOURNAMENTS FROM THE YEAR 1997

*updated 07/17/2019 with winners for 2018 and 2019

YEAR AUSTRALIAN OPEN FRENCH OPEN WIMBLEDON US OPEN 1997 Mirjana Lucic Justine Henin Cara Black Cara Black 1998 Jelena Kostanić Nadia Petrova Katarina Srebotnik Jelena Dokić 1999 Virginie Razzano Lourdes Domínguez Iroda Tulyaganova Lina Krasnoroutskaya 2000 Anikó Kapros Virginie Razzano María Emilia Salerni María Emilia Salerni 2001 Jelena Janković Kaia Kanepi Angelique Widjaja Marion Bartoli 2002 Barbora Strýcová Angelique Widjaja Vera Dushevina Maria Kirilenko 2003 Barbora Strýcová Anna-Lena Grönefeld Kirsten Flipkens Kirsten Flipkens 2004 Shahar Pe’er Sesil Karatantcheva Kateryna Bondarenko Michaëlla Krajicek 2005 Victoria Azarenka Ágnes Szávay Agnieszka Radwańska Victoria Azarenka 2006 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Agnieszka Radwańska Caroline Wozniacki Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 2007 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Alizé Cornet Urszula Radwańska Kristína Kučová 2008 Arantxa Rus Simona Halep Laura Robson Coco Vandeweghe 2009 Ksenia Pervak Kristina Mladenovic Noppawan Lertcheewakarn Heather Watson 2010 Karolína Plíšková Elina Svitolina Kristýna Plíšková Daria Gavrilova 2011 An-Sophie Mestach Ons Jabeur Ashleigh Barty Grace Min 2012 Taylor Townsend Annika Beck Eugenie Bouchard Samantha Crawford 2013 Ana Konjuh Belinda Bencic Belinda Bencic Ana Konjuh 2014 Elizaveta Kulichkova Daria Kasatkina Jeļena Ostapenko Marie Bouzková 2015 Tereza Mihalíková Paula Badosa Gibert Sofya Zhuk Dalma Gálfi 2016 Vera Lapko Rebeka Masarova Anastasia Potapova Kayla Day 2017 Marta Kostyuk Whitney Osuigwe Claire Liu Amanda Anisimova 2018 En Shuo Liang Cori Gauff Iga Swiatek Xyiu Wang 2019 Clara Tauson Leylah Annie Fernandez Daria Snigur Osorio Serrano

Source: Wikipedia

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