Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish polling is that its MPs are not getting any incumbency bonus

Contrast that with the LD-held seats

One of the great hopes of the Ashcroft Scottish polling was that it might flag up whether there’d be tactical voting or whether incumbent MPs would get a bonus.

Lord A asks two voting questions. The first is a standard one while the latter asked respondents to think specifically about the seat and the candidates who might stand.

I wondered whether we’d see an pro-Union tactical voting or whether long-standing LAB MPs would see an improvement. The outcome is not what I was expecting.

As the chart shows in the LAB-held seats the LAB shares stayed the same on the second question while the SNP saw a 2% uplift. In each of the two LD-held seats the party put on 5% while the SNP also saw a 2% rise.

In both Gordon, where Alex Salmond is standing, and Inverness, where Danny Alexander is defending, we see more than a fifth of Tory voters going to the yellows.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB

