Twenty-three teams are still alive in the playoff hunt but only 16 have a reasonable chance of making the 12-team playoff field. And of those teams, we’ve identified the only eight that can win the Super Bowl (sorry, NFC East champion)! They’re ranked from most to least likely, with Vegas odds and Vegas ‘rank’ in parenthesis, and although our orders differ, our top eight happens to be exactly the same:

1. Arizona Cardinals (+650, T3)

Remember that Arizona-Pittsburgh Super Bowl with an aging Kurt Warner in his late-career rebirth, Larry Fitzgerald shining on the biggest stage in sports, that wild James Harrison interception return, that even-wilder Santonio Holmes catch in the end zone and when Bruce Springsteen’s slid crotch-first into a camera?

That was a great Super Bowl — one of many great ones of the recent past. I mention it because I’m liking the idea of seeing it again this year. The Cards are 23-4 in games started by Carson Palmer over the last three years. They’re going to get a bye and likely face the Seahawks in a blockbuster divisional playoff game (Seattle lost the home game 32-39 this year, but the teams won’t play in Arizona until Week 17, when both could/should have their playoff seeds set) and then perhaps have to go on the road to beat the Panthers. With a defense that’s nearly as good and an offense that has more power and efficiency, the Cardinals feel like the team to beat, even though coming out of the NFC is going to one of those WWE Last Man Standing kind of things.

2. New England Patriots (+375, T1)

Wait, we’re going to declare the Pats season over because LeGarrette Blount is hurt? Look, I like Blount as much as the next guy and there’s no doubt the Patriots are better with him on the field. But this is Bill Belichick. This is Tom Brady. Unless the injury is to Brady, Rob Gronkowski or the guy in charge of watching the footballs, this team is still the runaway favorite in the AFC. They’re at No. 2 not because we think they’re the second-best team right now (maybe they are, maybe they’re third or fourth), but because it’s going to be far easier for a team to emerge from the banged-up AFC rather than a loaded NFC that realistically might have a 13-0 team as its third-best squad.

3. Seattle Seahawks (+650, T3)

If not for the fact that Seattle is almost certainly going to finish second in the NFC West and thus have to win four games instead of three, the ‘Hawks would be No. 1 on our list. Most prognosticators and analysts would say they’re the best team in football right now. After an ugly 2-4 start, the Seahawks are back in form, highlighted by a 39-30 shootout win over the Steelers and a 38-7 shellacking of Minnesota, a team nearly guaranteed a playoff berth.

4. Carolina Panthers (+375, T1)

There are a lot of Panthers skeptics and there’s good reason for it. The team has played just two teams that currently have a winning record. One of those came when the Seahawks were going through their aforementioned early-season struggles and the other was a nice home win over the Green Bay Packers. Cam Newton is the assured MVP (unless something crazy happens to Carolina in the next four weeks and maybe still even then) but the worries about him are legitimate: his accuracy is 28th in the league, he’s on the higher end of interception percentage, he doesn’t seem to be making his receivers better and his career performance in three playoff games have been worse than his usual output. The biggest problem is that Carolina’s offense will have trouble surviving a bad game by Newton. He’s played 14 good ones so far. Does he have five left in him?

Then again, we’re all looking for reasons Carolina won’t win the Super Bowl. It’s like searching for flaws in a supermodel. So what about reasons they will (or can) win the Super Bowl? Newton leads the NFL in touchdown percentage. He’s the NFL’s leading quarterback rusher. He’s not taking as many sacks as he used to. Jonathan Stewart is a reliable producer on the ground. Greg Olsen is one of the top tight end targets in the league. And, of course, there’s the thing that keeps the whole production moving: the team’s third-ranked defense, which leads the league in turnovers, interceptions and time of possession and ranks in the top five for allowed points, yards, first downs, passing yards, passing TDs and rushing yards. Oh yeah, they’re also undefeated.

There’s this fallacy out there that not thinking the Panthers will win the Super Bowl means you’re a Panther hater. It’s not. Ranking them No. 4 to win the Super Bowl (which is probably just as good as No. 1, given how rarely the best teams win it all) is no insult either. But the legitimate concerns outweigh the valid positives, for now. And again, being a fourth (third really, because of what we said about New England) choice to win the Super Bowl is lofty praise. We just don’t buy into the fact that there’s much difference between 13-0 and 11-2.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (+750, T5)

We used a lot of digital ink on the Panthers, so we’ll keep this short: The 8-5 Steelers, a team that might be the second-best in the AFC, still have the little problem of not actually being in the playoffs. We wrote about here.

6. Denver Broncos (+1200, 7)

On the first go-round, Denver didn’t make the list. The uncertainty at quarterback is the biggest question mark among teams on this list. But then you remember Trent Dilfer and a Ravens team once went an entire month (five games) scoring just 15 field goals and went on to win the Super Bowl because of a tremendous defense. Denver’s might not be better, but it’s currently ranked No. 1 in points allowed and yards allowed, while that Ravens team was ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively. Efficient quarterback play and a great defense can still win Super Bowl, even in this offense-happy, manufactured-scoring NFL.

7. Kansas City Chiefs (+1600, 8)

Andy Reid is a great coach. It doesn’t get said enough. This century (15 full seasons) he’s made the playoffs 10 times. He’s won 10+ games a total of nine times. He’s won 11+ seven times. His playoff record isn’t great (10-10) but he took a Chiefs team that had three playoff appearances in 15 years and was coming off a 2-14 season to the playoffs in his first year there. And he inspired this.

He missed the playoffs by one game last year. And this year, due to an ongoing seven-game win streak, he should get back. Much like the Panthers, the schedule has been soft, but for all of Andy Reid’s foibles (cough, clock management, cough), you just feel that he’s going to get his Super Bowl one day. Why not this year? Oh, and there’s also this.

8. Green Bay Packers (+1000, 6)

Who knows with this team. Is Aaron Rodgers still the best quarterback in football? Who knows with this team. (Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Cam Newton have all been far better this year.) Is Mike McCarthy a one-hit Super Bowl wonder? Who knows with this team. Will they win the division and get a home game in the wild-card round? Uh, yeah, probably. (Though given this El Nino weather, that advantage might just lead to a slightly chilly tundra at Lambeau.) The main reason Green Bay makes our list: They’ll likely host division rival Minnesota in the first round. The Packers are 8-1-1 against the Vikings at home in the past 10 years, though they’ve yet to play this year. But a 30-13 road win should tell you all you need to know about how those teams matchup. So there will be a very good chance Green Bay is among the final eight and, in the NFC, as we’ve said, who knows? But if Minnesota should go on a win streak to end the season and somehow pass Seattle for the fifth seed, meaning the two-time NFC champs would come to Lambeau? Oof. You’ll hear so much complaining about how the NFC East winner gets to host a playoff game that it’ll make your face go red, like usually happens in playoff games in Green Bay.

Correction: An earlier version of this post incorrectly said that Arizona lost to Seattle this season.