Guelph is one of a few ridings that could go Green in the next election, says P.J. Fournier of 338Canada.com

Could Guelph go Green in the upcoming federal election? At least one pollster thinks it is possible, with the Green Party gaining popularity in elections across Canada.

An astronomer and physics professor by trade, P.J. Fournier operates a poll analysis and projections web site called 338Canada.com. Fournier is a regular contributor to Macleans Magazine and CTV Montreal, among other media outlets and his site has been in operation over a number of elections — provincial and federal.

Currently, Fournier’s projections show Guelph as a toss-up between Lloyd Longfield, the incumbent Liberal candidate, and the Steve Dyck for the Green Party in the October federal election.

“I was asked by Green Party people whether they have a shot in the federal election in Guelph. The answer is absolutely, yes,” said Fournier by phone Wednesday.

Guelph is the Ontario riding that could most likely turn Green in the upcoming election, according to Fournier’s models, but he said there are four more ridings in British Columbia that are polling higher for the party — including Elizabeth May’s riding of Saanich—Gulf Islands.

“In the projection I have right now, they could win as many as four, but all of them are on Vancouver Island,” said Fournier. “Outside of that, I would say maybe Guelph and maybe Fredricton.”

Fournier said there is also a possibility of a Green candidate doing well in Charlottetown, PEI after Monday’s provincial election results, in which the party won official opposition status for the first time in Canada.

“If they play it smart and find good, local candidates, it’s absolutley possible,” said Fournier of the Green Party’s chance to increase its total of seats in the House of Commons from the current single federal seat currently held by May.

Fournier said Guelph is a strong riding, in part, because of the success of Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green Party of Ontario and Guelph’s member of provincial parliament.

Schreiner received 45 per cent of the vote in the 2018 Ontario provincial election.

“That is absolutely huge for a Green candidate. Interestingly, Mr. Schreiner received more votes than all of the Green Party of PEI candidates combined,” said Fournier.

Asked if the rise in popularity of the Green Party across Canada can be attributed to their message catching on or if there is a general dislike of the three main parties, Fournier said it could be a bit of both.

“It really helps that the NDP has a weak leader right now, because the Greens say they are fiscally responsible and they want to be presenting themselves as centrist — but they are a bit on the left side of the spectrum,” said Fournier. “With the NDP polling so low you could have alot of protest votes going to the Greens.”

The 2019 federal election campaign has not officially begun, though the Liberals and Greens have selected their respective candidates in Guelph. The NDP, Conservative Party of Canada and People's Party of Canada have yet to select candidates for the Guelph riding in the upcoming federal election.

Fournier said unlike voters for the Liberals, NDP and Conservatives, voters for Green Party candidates tend to vote for the candidate and not the party leader.

“People who vote Green will not vote for a prime minister, they will vote for someone who will represent their district,” said Fournier.

“Mr. Schreiner was really on the ground and that’s why so many people in Guelph voted for him.”