Super Tuesday 2020 Primary Preview, Part 2: North Carolina

Next week is Super Tuesday in the Presidential race, but it is also both the first and biggest downballot general election primary day of the year, and we’re celebrating all week with a 4-part preview series. 5 states comprising over a quarter of the country’s population – Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas – are going to congressional and state primary polls. Poll closing times are as follows in ET: (bold means a state has regular downballot primary races in addition to the Presidential contest)

7 – VT, VA || 7:30 – NC || 8 – AL, ME, MA, OK, TN, TX || 8:30 – AR || 9 – MN|| 10 – CO, UT || 11 – CA (no results Tues night)

Yesterday’s preview covering Alabama, Arkansas, and California local races is HERE. Today we cover North Carolina, California House races on Friday, and we wrap things up with Texas next Monday.

Flip over the fold for the full previews!

NC-Sen (D): Democrats have a contested primary for the NC Senate seat this year.

Thom Tillis

Incumbent Thom Tillis (R) is seeking a second term. A former State House Speaker, Tillis was known as a key architect of a massive package of conservative structural changes enacted under then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R) and the newly-GOP legislature at the start of the 2010s. He was then narrowly elected to this seat in 2014 on the wave. In his first term, Tillis has mostly been a backbench establishment conservative in the Senate. He was thought to potentially have issues with the GOP base after questioning Trump’s use of emergency powers to build the border wall, which led Tillis to draw a self-funding primary challenger. However, that challenger abruptly dropped out at the filing deadline and both Trump and grassroots activists seem to have made their peace with the incumbent. Thus, Tillis does not face significant primary opposition. However, with North Carolina being a purple state, Democrats have serious candidates vying to take him on.

Cal Cunningham

Ex-State Sen. and 2010 US Senate candidate Cal Cunningham (D) is the Democratic establishment choice to take on Tillis. However, he was not their first choice; national Dems recruited him into the race from an LG bid after several bigger names like AG Josh Stein (D) and ex-Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx (D) declined overtures to run. Cunningham served a single term representing a rural seat gerrymandered to find Dem pockets in a deep-red region between the Triad and Charlotte from 2000-2002. He was forced to retire after one term when redistricting could not provide him with a winnable seat. In the years since, he served in Iraq and mounted an unsuccessful run for the Senate in 2010, losing the Dem runoff to SoS Elaine Marshall (D) despite having strong support from the national Democratic establishment. Cunningham is running as a moderate liberal and has the lion’s share of institutional support from both national and state-level Democrats. He has fundraised reasonably well for this race with total hauls of around $5M, though those aren’t particularly impressive by the standards of highly competitive big-state Senate races. Additionally, he has needed to spend much of his money to get through the primary.

Erica Smith

State Sen. Erica Smith (D) is Cunningham’s main primary rival. A mechanical engineer by trade, Smith has served three terms in the legislature representing a rural seat in the Roanoke Rapids area. Smith won her first race to the seat by ousting a white moderate incumbent in the primary from the left, and has attempted to get to Cunningham’s left in this race. Smith’s fundraising has been quite poor in the low 6-figures. She is running to Cunningham’s left as an establishment liberal with some bold progressive tendencies. Smith does have some Democratic establishment support, particularly from Black interests and public-sector unions. However, her biggest allies in this race have come from across the aisle. Republicans have been playing hard in this race, running a 7-figure ad campaign on Smith’s behalf designed to boost her chances and knock Cunningham, as they have seen Smith as easier to beat in the general election. Both sides generally agree that the campaign has been enough to make Smith competitive in the primary, and it has forced Cunningham and national Democrats to spend heavily in the primary as well. However, the few polls of the race still show Smith significantly behind Cunningham.

Trevor Fuller

Mecklenburg County commissioner Trevor Fuller (D) is the final notable Democrat in the field. Fuller is a bold progressive and the most left-wing candidate in the field. Fuller has served six years in an at-large seat on the board governing the large county covering Charlotte and its inner suburbs. He could have some appeal to the far-left and may draw a few votes in the vote-rich Charlotte area. However, his fundraising has not been enough to run a serious statewide campaign, and he has little institutional support.

There are also two minor Democrats in the race. Overall, Cunningham is still likely to win the nomination, but Republicans’ ad campaign has made Smith competitive, and there is a real chance more left-leaning and Black votes could combine to have her pull the upset. In the general, Democrats would likely have a better chance with Cunningham, but North Carolina is a purple enough state that the race will still be competitive with either nominee. However, the relatively “B” to “C” list nature of Democratic recruitment, Tillis’s incumbency, and the fact that North Carolina seems more likely than not to be carried by Trump in the Presidential race combine to leave Tillis as a modest but noticeable favorite in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

NC-Gov (R): Four candidates are running for Governor in the Tar Heel State.

Roy Cooper

Incumbent Roy Cooper (D) is seeking a second term. Cooper narrowly ousted then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R) four years ago after a decade and a half as Attorney General. A moderate liberal who hails from the state’s historically-Democratic but now conservative rural east, Cooper is part of the last generation of more culturally moderate rural Democrats that dominated the state until about a decade ago. He has moved left with his party during his thirty-plus years in public office, but is still somewhat moderate by modern Democratic standards. But Cooper’s most defining characteristic as a pol is his extremely cautious nature. North Carolina’s Governor is among the nation’s weaker chief executives to begin with, and Cooper’s position was rendered all-but-impotent for the first two years of his term by veto-proof GOP supermajorities in the legislature. Cooper did not attempt to push his luck in his first two years, mostly avoiding fights with the legislature’s conservative leadership. Since Democrats broke the supermajority in the 2018 wave, Cooper has become marginally more assertive, but is still known for a relatively consensus-seeking style that has avoided going at loggerheads with the legislature, except in places where he is very confident public opinion is on his side. That posture has largely left Cooper’s term bereft of major accomplishments, but also made him fairly popular, with net approval ratings generally around the +10 to +20 mark. Cooper is well-funded with a huge gross fundraising haul of $11.6M. He does face a nominal primary challenge from perennial candidate Ernest Reeves (D), who has run in 7 races in the last 7 years, never rising to the level of a serious candidate; Reeves will obviously attract only scattered protest votes. However, Republicans do have a serious primary.

Dan Forest

LG Dan Forest (R) is challenging Cooper after two terms in the #2 spot. Forest is an Heir Force Major as the son of 90s/2000s-era ex-Rep. Sue Myrick (R). However, he has created his own brand in his eight years in office. Unlike his more establishment-friendly mother, Forest is known as an antiestablishment-leaning staunch social conservative. That posture has made him something of a lightning rod for Democrats, and he prevailed in close and contentious elections for the LG post in both 2012 and 2016. Though his office has little power, he has worked closely with legislative leadership on cultural conservative priorities, including school choice and campus free speech bills. Forest has fundraised well with hauls of $4.1M, and has the lions’ share of institutional support. However, some more establishment-friendly Republicans have never been totally at ease with his staunch conservative profile, and they have recruited a primary challenger from that wing of the party.

Holly Grange

State Rep. Holly Grange (R) is Forest’s primary rival. Grange has represented a seat covering part of Wilmington for four years. Among the first female West Point graduates, Grange spent much of her career with the Army Corps of Engineers and is married to a retired general. She was recruited into the race by more establishment-friendly and chamber-of-commerce style Republicans looking for a less polarizing alternative to Forest. Grange’s own ideology is down-the-line establishment conservatism; she is generally moderate in tone, but does not seem to have any major concrete deviations from conservative orthodoxy. However, her fundraising has been poor, in the low six-figures, and she has little name recognition outside of her relatively lightly-populated home area of Wilmington. Thus, she seems a long-shot against Forest’s cash and statewide name recognition.

Overall, Forest seems a strong favorite in the GOP primary to head to a general with Cooper as Grange’s campaign does not seem to be gaining the traction necessary to overcome her name recognition and fundraising disadvantages. The general election will likely be competitive in the purple state. Cooper is popular, but not overwhelmingly so, and Forest is a credible candidate with two hard-fought statewide victories under his belt. Trump is also probably more likely than not to carry the state. However, Cooper starts with a large Democratic base to build off of, and his popularity could provide him the requisite crossover support. Thus, Cooper seems a moderate favorite in a competitive general election race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

NC-1 (R): NC-1 is a rural D+5 seat covering the state’s rural northeast, including Roanoke Rapids, Rocky Mount, Wilson, Goldsboro, and most of Greenville, along with a broad swath of poor rural territory. Due to re-redistricting, the historically-Black dominated seat is now White-majority by VAP, albeit still with a large Black minority.

G. K. Butterfield

Incumbent GK Butterfield (D) is seeking a ninth full term. A backbench establishment liberal of African-American descent, Butterfield has never faced a competitive re-election race even as his district has gone through multiple permutations over the last decade. However, in this round of re-redistricting, his seat has picked up a large amount of rural territory; while still Dem-leaning, it is at the outside edge of the competitive range. Butterfield has drawn his first serious general election challenger this year. Two serious Republicans are in the race.

Sandy Smith

Businesswoman Sandy Smith (R) runs a pig farm and apiary. She is running as an establishment conservative with a cultural conservative emphasis and has collected a modest amount of establishment support. Smith’s bigger splash has come on the fundraising front, where she has outraised Butterfield thanks to 200K in self-funding, coupled with solid donor fundraising for a total gross of over a half million. However, she is a first-time candidate and her candidate skills are unproven.

Michele Nix

Smith’s rival is NCGOP official and 2019 NC-3 candidate Michelle Nix (R). Nix took 2% and 10th place in the absurdly crowded primary for last year’s NC-3 special election before pivoting to this race. A financial planner by trade, Nix served as vice-chair of the NCGOP from 2015 to 2019, and is unsurprisingly an establishment conservative. In spite of those connections and resume from her time with the party, Nix’s campaigns have not made a particularly large impact. She has raised enough to run a credible campaign for this race, but appears to have drained her warchest early in the race and not replenished it.

There are also two minor candidates in the GOP primary. Overall, Smith should be a substantial favorite in the primary barring an unexpected lightning strike by Nix. As for the general, the seat is still Democratic-leaning with a very large inelastic Dem base. However, the seat is less Safe than it has been and Smith’s fundraising suggests she is a stronger challenger than Butterfield has ever faced. Thus, the incumbent seems like a strong favorite, though Smith could have a real chance to make the race competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

NC-2 (D): NC-2 is a re-redistricted D+11 seat covering Raleigh and most of its first-ring suburbs, along with second-ring suburbs to the south in southern Wake County. Incumbent George Holding (R) is retiring after the seat was made heavily Democratic in re-redistricting.

Deborah Ross

Ex-State Rep. and 2016 US Senate nominee Deborah Ross (D) is the best-funded candiate. Ross served a decade in the legislature representing an upscale liberal downtown Raleigh seat, where she rose to become part of the Dem leadership team, before resigning in 2013 to take a post at the local public transit authority. She re-entered politics with a bid for the US Senate in 2016, losing to Sen. Richard Burr (R) by 6 points and performing in line with expectations. Ross is an upscale establishment liberal with some minor moderate tendencies. She has fundraised very well for this race, with hauls of over a half-million in the two months since the seat was created. She also has the lions’ share of institutional support. Ross’s strong rapport with the area’s establishment and name recognition from her Senate run kept out many prominent Democrats, and she only faces one serious rival.

Monika Johnson-Hostler

School board member Monika Johnson-Hostler (D) has served eight years on the county school board. Johnston-Hostler is running to Ross’s left as a bold progressive on both fiscal and cultural issues. She has had mediocre but credible fundraising in the low six figures, and has a base in the area’s Black community. Johnson-Hostler has also held down a purple district on the school board, which could speak well to her campaign skill.

There are also two minor Democrats in the race. Overall, Ross’s stronger fundraising and name recognition make her the favorite in the primary, though there is a slight chance Johnson-Hostler could pull the upset if she can turn out left-wing and Black voters. With the heavily-Democratic lean of the new seat, Republicans are not seriously contesting this race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

NC-6 (D): NC-6 is a re-redistricted D+10 seat covering the urban Piedmont Triad cities of Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and High Point, along with some first-ring suburbs around and between those cities. The seat is open as incumbent Mark Walker (R) has decided to forgo running here or in any other district to pursue a Senate run in 2022. Five Democrats are facing off.

Kathy Manning

2018 NC-13 nominee and attorney Kathy Manning (D) is the front-runner for the seat. She has lapped the field in fundraising, with hauls a bit short of $1M – without self-funding. Manning is a prominent attorney and major Dem donor who ran a well-funded and credible race for the old NC-13 last year, losing by 6 points to Rep. Ted Budd (R) in the conservative district. She basically never stopped campaigning after her loss, being talked about for a number of different races before the opportunity for this seat fell open in the re-redistricting process. Manning is running as an establishment liberal, and has had good institutional support for her bid this year, though she seems to have stronger connections with the national Dem establishment than the local one.

Rhonda Foxx

Congressional staffer Rhonda Foxx (D) has served as CoS to Rep. Alma Adams (D), who was originally from the Triad but moved to Charlotte when her district was re-redistricted there in 2016. In this campaign, Foxx has received a lot of publicity for an unusual reason – her 2018 arrest in Washington, DC for assault. She is actually playing up the incident as saying she was railroaded by police. However, an investigation uncovered accounts that Foxx allegedly said, “I’ll kill you, b*,” and may have lunged at the neighbor she was arguing with, who told police Foxx grabbed her by the neck and choked her. Ideologically, Foxx straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive, and she has a modest amount of establishment support. She has had mediocre fundraising with hauls in the low six figures.

Derwin Montgomery

State Rep. Derwin Montgomery (D) has represented an urban seat in Winston-Salem for one term, previously serving a decade on the Winston-Salem City council. He is running as an establishment-friendly bold progressive. Montgomery has probably the strongest local establishment support, particularly from the Winston-Salem portion of the district, including a big endorsement from Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines (D). His fundraising has been poor, though he has used modest self-funding to gather enough cash to mount a credible campaign.

Ed Hanes

Ex-State Rep. Ed Hanes (D) represented the same urban Winston-Salem district as Montgomery for six years before retiring in 2018. He was generally a moderate liberal in Raleigh and touts his effectiveness in the legislature; he is running as arguably the most moderate candidate in this field. Hanes may have some residual name recognition from his legislative tenure; however, he appears to have not seriously fundraised for this race.

Bruce Davis

2016 NC-13 nominee and ex-Guilford County commissioner Bruce Davis (D) is mounting a second bid after losing an underfunded campaign by 12 points four years ago. Davis served a dozen years on the county commission from 2002 to 2014, and also lost a race for Mayor of high Point by a slim margin in 2017. He is running as a populist establishment liberal. Davis could have residual name recongition from his government service and prior runs, but as four years ago, his run this time has also been underfunded.

Overall, Manning looks like a fairly substantial favorite in the race. With four Black candidates, it is hard to see any one of them breaking out of the pack to seriously take on Manning’s massive fundraising advantage and name recognition from her run last cycle. While one of her rivals could surprise, it seems most likely that Manning will notch an easy win in both the primary and general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

NC-11 (R, D): NC-11 is an R+10 seat covering the state’s western tail, including the entire Asheville metro area and rural mountain areas surrounding it. The seat is open as incumbent Mark Meadows (R) abruptly retired at the filing deadline. Because Meadows retired so late, it was too late for those who had already filed for other races to withdraw, meaning essentially all established pols were blocked from running. As a result, there is a free-for-all of mostly political newcomers here, with a full dozen GOP candidates, eight of whom are serious.

Chuck Archerd

2018 candidate and retired real estate investor Chuck Archerd (R) took 14% against Meadows in the primary two years ago as the congressman’s only opponent, without running a serious campaign. However, Archerd seems likely to be a much bigger factor this time, as he has self-funded $350K, added to a modest amount of donations, to become the best-funded candidate in the field. He is running the most professional campaign in the field and touts his background as a CPA and businessman. Archerd is straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism.

Madison Cawthorn

Businessman Madison Cawthorn (R) is just 25 and well-known in the area for an unusual reason. Six years ago, the then-high-school-senior was preparing to attend the Naval Academy when he was nearly killed in a car accident, which left him paralyzed. Cawthorn has self-funded extensively, with $300K in self-funding added to modest donations, making him the second-best-funded candidate in the field. He is running as an establishment-leaning conservative, arguably the most establishment-friendly candidate in the field.

Dan Driscoll

Attorney and veteran Dan Driscoll (R) is an Iraq veteran who went to Yale Law School after retiring from the military. Though Driscoll grew up in the district, he is carpetbagging back to the area from Winston-Salem for this race. Driscoll is one of just two serious candidates in the GOP field to not self-fund, and has raised by far the most from donors. However, due to the short timeframe, his overall hauls are still relatively mediocre. He is running as an establishment conservative and has a modest amount of institutional support, particularly from veterans’ groups.

Lynda Bennett

Businesswoman Lynda Bennett (R) has Meadows’s support and was the first candidate into the race, leading to the obvious conclusion that Meadows orchestrated his late retirement to attempt to give her a leg up. She is running in the Meadows mold as a staunch antiestablishment conservative and has pledged to take up his seat in the Freedom Caucus if elected. She has strong institutional support from national antiestablishment groups, who have followed Meadows’s lead in backing her. Bennett has had mediocre fundraising aided by modest self-funding.

Jim Davis

State Sen. Jim Davis (R) is the only officeholder in the race, being able to throw his hat into the ring because he had intended to retire before Meadows pulled the ripcord. A dentist by trade, Davis served five terms in the State Senate representing the western tip of the state. He is an ideological antiestablishment conservative who released a buzz-worthy ad pledging to defend the right to eat greasy cheeseburgers. Davis’s fundraising has been mediocre to poor, aided by a small amount of self-funding, but as the only candidate in the race with significant name recognition, that may still be enough to make him a front-runner.

Wayne King

Meadows staffer Wayne King (R) served as the incumbent’s deputy chief of staff and district director, but was somewhat surprisingly snubbed for his boss’s endorsement in favor of Bennett. King is running as a staunch antiestablishment conservative in the Meadows mold. King has two major liabilities: first, he hails from well outside the district in suburban Charlotte. And second, King has not self-funded and places last among the serious candidates in overall funds, raising barely enough to run a credible campaign. King has a decent amount of institutional support though, meaning he could potentially be a serious contender.

Vance Patterson

Businessman and 2012 candidate Vance Patterson (R) lost the primary runoff six years ago to Meadows by a large margin, and also challenged Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) in the primary in 2010. He could benefit from residual name recognition from those races. Patterson touts his record creating multiple businesses and straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism. He has not fundraised seriously from donors for this race, but his $150K in self-funding is enough to put him around the middle of the pack in overall gross hauls.

Businessman Joey Osborne (R) has not raised a cent from donors, but has self-funded $100K to gather enough to run a serious campaign. He straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism. However, he has little name recognition or institutional support, and thus seems like a relatively long-shot.

Overall, the huge field and no clear front-runner mean that a runoff is very likely, even with the low 30% threshold. Any two of Archerd, Bennett, Cawthorn, Driscoll, Davis, and King could advance to a second round, and it’s basically impossible to handicap this muddled field further than that. Across the aisle, there are three serious Democrats contesting their primary.

Moe Davis

Retired Air Force officer Moe Davis (D) is the best-funded Democrat. A decorated career Air Force JAG officer, Davis was appointed as chief prosecutor for the Guantanamo Bay Military Tribunals in the mid-2000s. He notably exited that post after he refused to use evidence obtained via torture in prosecutions. Since leaving the military, Davis served a decade as a civil servant and administrative law judge. Though Davis grew up in western NC just outside the seat, he only moved into the district from the DC area last year. He is also running as a bold progressive, which could be a good position for the primary but a questionable fit in the general. Davis has had mediocre but credible fundraising in the low six figures. He has decent establishment support, particularly from national liberals, for his compelling biography.

Steve Woodsmall

2018 candidate and zoning board member Steve Woodsmall (D) was an unsuccessful candidate in the primary to take on Meadows two years ago. Woodsmall is a retired career Air Force veteran who has probably a plurality of support from the local Democratic establishment. He straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive with an upscale social-liberal emphasis. Woodsmall’s fundraising has been poor, but enough to run a credible campaign.

Gina Collias

Attorney and 2018 GOP candidate Gina Collias (D) ran against Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) in the GOP primary for the adjacent NC-10 as a RINO before being redistricted to this seat. Though she touts her GOP heritage before Trump’s election, nowadays Collias is a down-the-line establishment liberal on both fiscal and cultural issues. Collias’s fundraising has been poor, though she has raised enough to run a credible campaign, and may benefit from some residual name recognition from her bid two years ago.

There are also two non-serious Dems in the race. Overall, Davis’s biography and fundraising mean he is likely the favorite in the primary, but Woodsmall or Collias pulling the upset, or even the minor candidates drawing enough scattered votes to keep all candidates below 30 and force a runoff, are all possibilities.

As for the general, any GOP nominee is likely to start out as a significant favorite. Though the seat is less Republican-friendly than its prior iteration, it is still a GOP-leaning seat that is becoming even more so in the Trump era. However, most of the Republican candidates are unproven and the GOP nominee making an unforced error is a possibility. If the year turns especially good for Democrats or the GOP nominee errs, the race could easily become highly competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

NC-8: There is also one competitive general election race without contested primaries. NC-8 is an R+6 seat stretching a thin strip from Charlotte’s northeast suburbs around Concord east through rural areas around Southern Pines to take in the Fayetteville metro area.

Richard Hudson

Incumbent Richard Hudson (R) is seeking a fifth term. A longtime congressional staffer and GOP operative, Hudson has not been a particularly visible member of Congress but has quietly become a major behind-the-scenes force in the GOP caucus as a lower-level leadership member. Hudson initially won this seat after it was redistricted in 2012 to undo a Democratic gerrymander and has not faced a competitive race since. Hudson is very well-connected with the GOP establishment and has a large warchest. However, he drew a shorter straw in the latest remap, as the seat has become somewhat competitive with the addition of all of Fayetteville.

Patricia Timmons-Goodson

Democrats recruited a credible rival to Huston in elected ex-State Supreme Court Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D). A career judge for nearly thirty years, Timmons-Goodson served six years on the state’s highest court from 2006 to 2012 before an unsuccessful nomination under Obama to a federal district court post. Timmons-Goodson was a late entry to this race at the filing deadline and has had a somewhat mediocre start to her fundraising, though she will likely have enough to run a credible campaign. The seat is now in the competitive range and Democrats have a credible candidate, but overall the district is still GOP-leaning and Hudson seems a reasonably strong incumbent. Thus, for now the seat is only on the edge of the playing field in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

North Carolina Row Officers:

NC-LG (R, D): The LG primary to replace termed-out gubernatorial candidate Dan Forest (R) is absurdly crowded, with a whopping 9 Republicans and 6 Democrats having filed for the low-powered (but high-visibility) post. Thus, a May 12th runoff if no one passes 30% is a realistic possibility on both sides. The nine-way GOP scrum is probably especially likely to go into overtime.

Renee Ellmers

Ex-US Rep. Renee Ellmers (R) is probably the best-known candidate in the field from her six years representing the central part of the state in the House. However, that name recognition could be a double-edged sword. Ellmers was the classic “wave baby” when she came to Congress in 2010 before being protected by redistricting. In Congress, she never quite found her political footing and was seen as a moderate often distrusted by ideological conservatives. In particular, she raised the ire of many social conservatives with her 2015 move to kill an abortion-restriction measure. Her lack of allies led to her district being dismantled in the 2016 re-redistricting and her resulting primary loss to fellow Rep. George Holding (R). Ellmers’s name recognition probably tops the field, but her fundraising has been mediocre, and she would likely face an uphill fight in a runoff if she does not win the first round outright.

Mark Johnson

State Superintendent Mark Johnson (R) was a little-known local school board member when he surprisingly upset the incumbent State Superintendent in 2016. Johnson has been a lightning rod as Superintendent for his battles with teachers’ unions and the state school board, especially since the legislature pushed through a bill after his election giving the Superintendent significant new powers. Johnson has been particularly criticized as Superintendent for some contract-award decisions critics say were motivated by favoritism. He is an antiestablishment-leaning conservative and has made his opposition to Common Core educational standards a key plank in his platform for this race. Thanks to a rollover from his Superintendent account, Johnson has fundraised well for this race with a warchest of a quarter-million.

Scott Stone

Ex-State Rep. Scott Stone (R) is the best-funded GOP candidate, with hauls of over a quarter-million so far. A civil engineer who owns a 50-person firm, Stone entered politics as the sacrificial lamb GOP nominee for Charlotte Mayor in 2011. He then bounced back to win a State Rep. seat in the suburban southern tip of the city in 2016, serving one term before being swept out on the 2018 wave. Stone is an ideological conservative with an emphasis on fiscal issues, straddling the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism. He could have significant name recognition in the vote-rich Charlotte area.

Mark Robinson

Factory worker and 2nd-Amendment activist Mark Robinson (R) became a viral video star when he gave an pro-second amendment speech at a Greensboro city council meeting in 2018. Robinson, who was placed in foster care for a time in childhood, spent most of his career as a furniture factory worker. However, after a blunt yet eloquent 3-minute speech on gun rights to the Greensboro city council went viral in 2018, he has become a professional activist. Robinson is running on a populist-conservative platform. Though his fundraising has been poor, his African-American heritage and viral star nature could make him a significant force among the conservative grassroots.

Andy Wells

State Sen. Andy Wells (R) has represented a rural area around Hickory in the legislature for the last eight years, serving six in the Senate after a term in the House. Wells is probably the staunchest ideological conservative in the field; he would probably be considered an antiestablishment conservative in most states, but is on good terms with North Carolina’s highly ideological GOP leadership. Wells has had good but not great fundraising for this race, and though he represents a rural district, he hails from a primary-vote-rich area that could give him a geographic base.

Buddy Bengel

Restaurateur Buddy Bengel (R) owns a chain of four restaurants and has also been appointed to a local hospital board. Bengel is a former baseball player who now owns a minor league baseball team in Morehead City in the state’s rural east, which could give him a geographic base in that region. Bengel is running as an establishment conservative and has had good but not great fundraising thanks to some self-funding.

Greg Gebhardt

Businessman and former Legislative staffer Greg Gebhardt (R) is a West Point graduate and Iraq veteran. Gebhardt has been focusing on some niche issues in his race, including pushing to implement the state’s judically-stayed voter ID law, which he helped write as a staffer, and implementing a tax break on military retirement pay. He has had mediocre-to-good fundraising in the low six figures, but his lack of prior name recognition could be a handicap in standing out in the crowded field.

Deborah Cochran

Ex-Mt. Airy Mayor Deborah Cochran (R) served eight years as mayor of the small city in the state’s rural northwest. A teacher by trade, she is running as an establishment conservative. Though Cochran was the first candidate to enter this race way back in 2018, her fundraising has still been poor, and she seems unlikely to make much of an impact outside her rural home region.

John Ritter

Attorney John Ritter (R), no relation to the late actor, is running as an establishment conservative. He has had little fundraising or name recognition, and seems unlikely to be a major factor other than increasing the chances of a runoff.

Overall, the muddled nature of the GOP field probably means a runoff is more likely than not. Ellmers, Johnson, Stone, Robinson, and Wells seem like the front-runners in the race, but any candidate could surprise in a field this muddled. Across the aisle, six Dems are facing off.

Terry Van Duyn

State Sen. Terry Van Duyn (D) is the best funded candidate on the Dem side and overall, with a warchest well over a half-million, thanks in part to a significant rollover from her legislative account. Van Duyn has represented much of the Asheville area for six years, including serving a stint in Dem leadership. She has a plurality of establishment support statewide, though she hails from a vote-poor area. Van Duyn is probably best described ideologically as an establishment liberal with some upscale bold progressive tendencies.

Bill Toole

Belmont councilman and Gaston County Dem chair Bill Toole (D) has a solid warchest of a little under a half million thanks largely to self-funding. Toole has an interesting career history of working as a commercial fisherman for several years before going to law school. An environmental attorney, Toole is running as an upscale progressive with an emphasis on cultural issues, including environmental issues and marijuana legalization. His cash has made Toole a major factor in the race, but he hails from a vote-poor area and has little prior name recognition.

Chaz Beasley

State Rep. Chaz Beasley (D) has represented a district in diversifying suburban areas of western Charlotte for four terms. Considered a rising star on the state’s Dem bench at age 34, Beasley is a Harvard graduate who previously served as a congressional staffer and State Supreme Court clerk. He is running as a mainstream establishment liberal and has had good fundraising in the low six figures, though short of Van Duyn and Toole’s large hauls. He could have a geographic base in the vote-rich Charlotte area, but the presence of three other Black candidates in the race could hurt him by splitting that demographic.

Yvonne Lewis-Holley

State Rep. Yvonne Lewis-Holley (D) has represented a middle-class-Black dominated district in eastern Raleigh for eight years. Lewis-Holley is the only candidate in the race from the vote-rich Triangle area, where her father was a longtime TV personality, which could give her a geographic base. However, her fundraising has been mediocre. She straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive, with a focus on economic issues.

Allen Thomas

Hoke County commissioner Allen Thomas (D) should not be confused with the unrelated former Greenville Mayor and 2019 NC-3 congressional candidate of the same name, though he may benefit from mistaken name recognition in that region. This Thomas is a commissioner in the rural Sandhills county and has been considered something of a rising star at age 33. He is running as a bold progressive on economic issues and somewhat more moderate on cultural issues. He has been most notable for an incident last year in which he successfully used a gun to defend himself against home intruders. Thomas’s fundraising has been mediocre-to-good. However, hailing from a part of the state relatively poor in primary votes could be a handicap.

Ronald Newton

2016 candidate Ronald Newton (D) has had a diverse career as a cop and businessman, and previously won election to a school board seat in his prior home of Westchester County, New York. He has fundraised poorly and is not running a particularly serious campaign, but Newton did take 10% of the vote four years ago and could have a modest amount of residual name recognition. He does not seem a serious threat to win or even advance to a runoff, but could draw enough votes to make a second round slightly more likely.

Overall, the Democratic race is probably a bit more likely than the Republican race to wrap up in one round, though a runoff is still possible. Van Duyn, Toole, and Beasley seem like the strongest candidates; any of the three could win outright or proceed to a runoff, with Van Duyn looking like the slight front-runner. Lewis-Holley and Thomas could also have an outside chance to surprise.

Despite the muddled primary fields on both sides, both parties seem likely to ultimately emerge with credible nominees. About all we can say at this point is that due to the purple lean of the state, there is no clear favorite in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

NC-SoS (R): Four candidates are vying for the Secretary of State post, which is a relatively weak office in NC without oversight of elections.

Elaine Marshall

Longtime Incumbent Elaine Marshall (D) is seeking a seventh term. Marshall has been a mainstream liberal in office. Though she was unsuccessful in two attempts to move up to the US Senate in 2002 and 2010 and regarded as a weak candidate in those races, in her SoS post she has risen to become one of North Carolina Dems’ strongest performers, leading the statewide Dem ticket in 2016. Marshall has had good fundraising for her race this year with a warchest of over a quarter million. However, she has been hit in the last few years for a minor scandal in which her office may have improperly provided notary licenses to illegal aliens. Three Republicans are vying for the nomination to take her on.

EC Sykes

Businessman and Cruz Presidential campaign staffer EC Sykes (R) is the best-funded candidate by far thanks to self-funding. A former CEO of two tech companies, Sykes’s six-figure warchest is more than three times that of his primary rivals combined. Sykes rose to become Cruz’s national director for faith outreach in the 2016 campaign and has strong ties to the state’s social conservative and evangelical communities. However, his campaign messaging for this race generally focuses more on his business experience, and he overall straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism.

Michael LaPaglia

2016 nominee Michael LaPaglia (R) is seeking the office a second time. A businessman, LaPaglia was the surprise nominee in 2016, defeating a more serious rival in the primary. In 2017 he was involved in an ultimately unsuccessful effort to impeach Marshall over the improper notary certification issue, which attracted some support in the legislature but ultimately fizzled. His fundraising this year has once again been poor, but he could benefit from residual name recognition.

Chad Brown

Gaston County commissioner Chad Brown (R) had a prior career as a minor-league professional baseball player, and has brought in former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling as a campaign surrogate. He has served as a county commissioner in the suburban Charlotte county for over a decade, which could give him a geographic base. Brown’s fundraising has been poor, though enough to run a credible campaign.

Overall, Sykes seems a moderate favorite in the GOP primary, but LaPaglia’s name recognition and Brown’s geographic base could allow either a chance to pull the upset. Any Republican will have a difficult time in the general against Marshall’s longtime incumbency and high name recognition, but due to the bright-purple lean of the state, an upset is well within the realm of possibility. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

NC-AG (R): Four candidates are vying for the Attorney General’s post.

Josh Stein

Incumbent Josh Stein (D) is seeking a second term. A former state prosecutor and legislator from Raleigh, Stein is considered a rising star on the state’s Dem bench. He is an establishment liberal with some upscale moderate tendencies. Stein was heavily recruited for a Senate run this year before demurring to run for re-election, and is considered likely to seek the state’s other Senate seat in 2022 or run for Governor in 2024. Obviously with an eye to those future races, Stein has had ridiculous fundraising for his re-election bid, with his warchest of $4.1M nearly equaling the total fundraising for all other Row Officer candidates combined. Three Republicans are vying to take on Stein.

Jim O’Neill

Forsyth County DA and 2016 candidate Jim O’Neill (R) is mounting a second run for the seat. An establishment conservative, O’Neill has served eleven years as DA in the large county covering the Winston-Salem area. He narrowly lost the primary in 2016 to a more vocally socially conservative candidate, who then narrowly lost the general to Stein. O’Neill has had good fundraising for this race, with a warchest of over a quarter-million, and is playing up his experience as a prosecutor.

Christine Mumma

Nonprofit exec Christine Mumma (R) has a somewhat unorthodox biography for a Republican as the longtime head of a state-level nonprofit that works to exonerate wrongfully convicted defendants. Mumma has had a high profile in that work and has received numerous accolades. She is also known for close ties to the state’s social conservative community as a protege of the late former State Supreme Court Chief Justice I. Beverly Lake Jr. Thanks to self-funding, Mumma has narrowly outraised O’Neill with a warchest of over a quarter-million.

Sam Hayes

Gov. Pat McCrory (R) administration official Sam Hayes (R) has served as a top attorney to the state’s environmental-protection department under then-Gov. McCrory, and then the top attorney to State Treasurer Dale Folwell (R). Hayes straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism. His fundraising has been poor for this race, though he entered the race late and could have raised more since the last reporting deadline.

Overall, O’Neill’s name recognition and fundraising likely make him the slight favorite in the primary, but Mumma’s high profile could allow her to pull the upset. Hayes seems a longer-shot but could surprise. In the general, Stein’s huge warchest and incumbency in the purple state likely leave him to start as a mild to moderate favorite. However, Republicans will likely be highly energized for this race as a chance to take down one of the state’s top Dem rising stars, and will likely have a strong nominee to attempt to do so. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

NC-Treas (D): Four candidates are facing off for the Treasurer’s post.

Dale Folwell

Incumbent Dale Folwell (R) is seeking a second term. Folwell is an establishment conservative who rose to leadership in a dozen years in the legislature before an unsuccessful 2012 LG run. He bounced back to win this office as an open seat in 2016. He has had strong establishment support, including some endorsements from more unusual corners for a Republican like public employee unions. However, Folwell’s fundraising for this race has been poor so far. Folwell has also pursued some controversial unsuccessful efforts to control health care costs in his term, which appears to have kicked a hornets’ nest among some quarters of the state’s Democrats. Three serious Democrats are vying to take him on.

Ronnie Chatterji

Obama administration aide and professor Ronnie Chatterji (D) is the best-funded Democrat by far, with his impressive warchest of nearly a half-million roughly doubling that of his rivals together. Chatterji has a strong resume as a business professor at Duke who served on Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. He has the plurality of support from the state’s Democratic establishment and is running as an establishment liberal with progressive tendencies.

Dimple Ajmera

Charlotte councilwoman Dimple Ajmera (D) is the only candidate in this primary holding an elected office. Ajmera is an Indian immigrant who has served three years on the city council in an at-large seat; she has a compelling story of growing up poor to become a CPA and insurance executive. She is running as the most bold progressive candidate in the race and has a significant amount of Dem establishment support, particularly from around the Charlotte area. Though she entered the race just before the filing deadline, she has still had mediocre to good fundraising overall.

Matt Leatherman

Treasurer’s office staffer Matthew Leatherman (D) served as a top deputy under Folwell’s predecessor Janet Cowell (D). Leatherman has a compelling personal story of dealing with the birth of a premature child and navigating the related health issues. He is running as an establishment liberal with some progressive tendencies, and has had mediocre to good fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign.

Overall, Chatterji looks like a slight favorite in the primary, but both Ajmera and Leatherman are credible candidates who could have the chance to pull the upset. In the general, Democrats seem likely to make the race a priority and are likely to have a credible nominee. However, Folwell is a largely non-controversial incumbent in a purple state, and starts with more name recognition than any of his Dem rivals. Thus, Folwell likely starts as a mild favorite in what is likely to be a competitive general election race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

NC-Aud (D, R): Both sides have primaries for the Auditor’s seat with two Democrats and two Republicans in the race.

Beth Wood

Incumbent Beth Wood (D) is seeking a fourth term. A CPA by trade, Wood has generally been a low-profile technocratic moderate liberal in office. Unlike some more ambitious Auditors in other states, she has focused more on technical competence in delivering fair audits than in using the position as a soapbox. Due to that relatively low profile, Wood only narrowly prevailed in a surprisingly tough re-election contest in 2016, and her fundraising this year has been mediocre. She is facing challenges from two former employees in her office, one from either party.

Luis Toledo

Auditor’s office staffer and 2018 State Senate candidate Luis Toledo (D) is an Air Force veteran and career financial analyst. Toledo has been hitting Wood on alleged low morale in the office and criticizing the number of audits as insufficient, and seems to be generally running on a more progressive platform. He has some residual name recognition from a competitive primary for a Raleigh-area State Senate seat two years ago, but has not fundraised substantially for this race, which makes him a long-shot in the primary against Wood’s incumbency and name recognition.

Tim Hoegemeyer

Auditor’s office staffer Tim Hoegemeyer (R) is running against his former boss after over a decade in the office. Hoegemeyer raised eyebrows when he began his run for the post while still employed in Wood’s office (he had given his notice of resignation but not actually resigned). He is a veteran and mainstream conservative. Hoegemeyer is generally promising to be a more activist Auditor than Wood.

Elected Water Board member Anthony Street (R) is a farmer and businessman who has been elected to the water board in Brunswick County near Wilmington. He has raised enough to run a credible campaign, but does not seem to be running a very professional campaign operation, and lacks Hoegemeyer’s more directly relevant experience to the office.

Overall, Wood and Hoegemeyer seem moderate favorites in their respective primaries, but upsets could be possibilities on either side, more likely for Street than Toledo. In the general, Wood’s incumbency and the purple nature of the state likely make her a moderate favorite, but Republicans are likely to have a credible nominee who could make the race competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

NC-Supt (R, D): The State Superintendent seat is open as incumbent Mark Johnson (R), who ousted an incumbent in a considerable upset in 2016, is running for Lt. Governor. Two Republicans and five Democrats are facing off.

Craig Horn

State Rep. Craig Horn (R) has represented a conservative seat in Charlotte’s southeast suburbs for a decade, rising to chair the NC House Education Committee. In that post he has been a proponent of education reform efforts, which has made him a lightning rod for teachers’ union ire. His fundraising for this race has been poor, though he entered the race late.

Catherine Truitt

Gov. Pat McCrory (R) administration official Catherine Truitt (R) is a former high school English teacher who became a staffer to McCrory and is now working as a top administrator for a public online university. She is running as a technocratic mainstream conservative. Truitt’s fundraising has been poor, though she entered the race late.

Overall, there is no clear favorite between Horn and Truitt in the GOP primary. Five Democrats are facing off across the aisle.

Jen Mangrum

Professor and 2018 State Senate nominee Jen Mangrum (D) is best known for being the Democratic nominee last cycle against powerful State Senate Pres. Phil Berger Sr. (R) in his conservative district. A former elementary school teacher who now works as an education professor, Mangrum’s fundraising has been the best of the field, though still mediocre overall. She is running as an establishment liberal and has a plurality of institutional support, including the state’s second-largest (and more progressive) teachers’ union.

James Barrett

School board member James Barrett (D) is a computer-manufacturing executive who has served eight years on the school board in Chapel Hill. Due to his job with the Chinese company Lenovo, Barrett has had some conflict-of-interest allegations for his role in approving a Mandarin-language magnet school in his district, though he was cleared of wrongdoing. He is running as a mainstream establishment liberal and has had mediocre fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign.

Keith Sutton

School board member Keith Sutton (D) is an education consultant and former Dem operative who has served on the Wake County school board for the last decade. Sutton could have name recognition from his races in the large county. He is running on a platform that could be described as straddling the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive, and has had poor fundraising.

Michael Maher

University administrator Michael Maher (D) is a former high school science teacher who now serves as a vice-dean at NC State’s education school. Maher is running as an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies, making him probably the most moderate candidate in the primary field. His fundraising has been poor.

Constance Lav-Johnson

Teacher Constance Lav-Johnson (D) ran a non-serious campaign for Charlotte Mayor in 2017. She is running in this race as a staunch left-wing candidate, with policy proposals that include massive teacher pay hikes and free lunch for all students. That could give her a niche on the party’s left, though her fundraising has been poor and she has little name recognition.

Overall, Mangrum seems a slight favorite in the D primary, but all five candidates are little-known and poorly-funded, and any of the five could prevail or the split field could result in a runoff. The general election will likely be highly competitive. Teachers’ Union forces have been upset with Mark Johnson’s tenure and will likely make this race a high priority for Democrats this year. Both sides are likely to have credible nominees, and the purple lean of the state overall means this race likely starts with no clear favorite in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

Steve Troxler

NC-Agri (D): Four candidates are seeking the Agriculture Commissioner post.

Walter Smith

Incumbent Steve Troxler (R) is seeking a fifth term. A farmer and mainstream conservative, Troxler has generally been seen as a competent manager of the Agriculture department. He has overperformed the GOP baseline modestly but consistently in his re-election runs and has generally not attracted top-tier opponents, though his fundraising has been poor. Three Dems are vying to take him on this year.

2012/16 nominee Walter Smith (D) is seeking the office for a third time. Smith is a former councilman in the small rural town of Booneville who has worked as both a farmer and a civil servant at the USDA. Smith is running on a fairly progressive platform within the limited range of agriculture issues, with a particular focus on animal welfare. Smith underperformed the statewide Dem baseline in his last two runs against Troxler and is unlikely to do much better this time, which has led the Dem establishment to search for other potential options.

Jenna Wadsworth

Donovan-Alexander Watson

Elected water board member Jenna Wadsworth (D) has served a decade on said board in Wake County. Though she lives on her family’s farm, the 31-year old’s main profession is as a consultant. Pegged as a rising star, she has institutional support from most of the state’s Dem establishment, though thus far her fundraising has been poor.

Farmer Donovan-Alexander Watson (D) has relevant experience running his family’s farm near Durham. However, he has not fundraised as best I can tell and has little establishment support or name recognition. While low-info votes could allow him to surprise, he seems a longer-shot.

Overall, there is no clear favorite in the primary between Smith’s residual name recognition and Wadsworth’s stronger establishment support, with Watson potentially having an outside chance to surprise. Any Dem nominee will face an uphill battle in the far-downballot race in the general election against Troxler’s incumbency, but North Carolina is purple enough that the race will be competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

NC-Lab (R): Three Republicans are facing off to succeed retiring longtime incumbent Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry (R), known as the “Elevator Queen” for her practice of putting her picture on the inspection certificate in all the state’s elevators.

Josh Dobson

State Rep. Josh Dobson (R) has represented a rural mountain district east of Asheville for seven years. Dobson has mostly been a backbencher in the legislature, generally going along with legislative leadership’s ideological conservative priorities. His fundraising has been mediocre, though enough to run a credible campaign and ahead of his poorly-funded primary rivals.

Pearl Burris-Floyd

Ex-State Rep. Pearl Burris-Floyd (R) has Berry’s endorsement. A minister, Burris-Floyd served one term representing part of Charlotte’s western suburbs before losing her re-election primary in 2010; she has since served as an appointed UNC university regent. Her endorsement by Berry and African-American heritage could be selling points with primary voters. She is running as an establishment conservative, but thus far has had poor fundraising.

The third Republican, construction foreman Chuck Stanley (R), is little-known and poorly-funded. However, in a low-information race where scattered votes could have a significant impact, his chances can not be written off entirely. Overall Dobson seems a moderate favorite in this primary, but any of the three could prevail.

Jessica Holmes

The nominee will head to a general election with Wake County commissioner Jessica Holmes (D). Holmes has served on the commission for six years as an establishment liberal. She has collected unanimous Dem establishment support for this race and fundraised well for a race so far down the ballot.

In a bright purple state and with both sides likely to return credible nominees, the general election looks likely to be highly competitive and so far there is no clear favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

NC-Ins (R): Two Republicans and a Democrat are seeking the Insurance Commissioner post.

Mike Causey

Incumbent Mike Causey (R), a former perennial candidate who picked up this seat in an upset in 2016, is seeking a second term. Causey is a veteran and career insurance businessman who won the seat on his fifth try, despite a shoestring campaign, in what was considered one of the biggest upsets of the 2016 cycle. Since assuming the office, he has been most notable for his role in exposing an attempted bribery ring where a prominent businessman funneled cash to then-NCGOP chair Robin Hayes (R), among others, in an attempt to win favorable treatment from Causey’s department. Causey is running as an establishment conservative and has fundraised well with a warchest of nearly a half-million.

Causey’s rival is 2016 candidate Ronald Pierce (R), a former pilot and building contractor. Pierce is vying for the seat a second time after taking about a quarter of the vote in the three-way primary four years ago. He is running on an antiestablishment platform, but his fundraising has been poor. With Causey’s incumbency and higher profile, Pierce is unlikely to be a serious threat to upset the incumbent.

Wayne Goodwin

The nominee will head on to a general with NCDP chair ex-Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin (D). Goodwin is a former legislator from the rural Sandhills region who served two terms as Insurance Commissioner before his 2016 upset. After the loss, Goodwin has maintained a high profile by quickly being appointed as chair of the State Democratic Party. Thanks mostly to rollover from his prior account (overconfidence led him to not drain his funds in 2016), Goodwin has been well-funded with hauls of over a quarter-million so far. He is running as a populist-leaning establishment liberal.

Overall, with strong candidates on both sides who are likely to be well-funded and have relatively high statewide name recognition, this race looks set to be one of the year’s most competitive Row Officer races. For now it’s hard to call this contest anything other than a pure Tossup. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

Winston-Salem Mayor (D): Winston-Salem is a city of 255K in the Piedmont Triad of central North Carolina, roughly 45% White, 35% Black, and 15% Hispanic. Historically known as a center of the tobacco industry, Winston-Salem’s economy nowadays is driven largely by Wake Forest University and its associated medical campus. The city has a relatively small urban core surrounded by a large ring of suburbs within the city limits. A pie slice of the western quarter of the city is largely White and upscale, and politically moderate overall with some more liberal and conservative neighborhoods. The remaining 3/4 of the city is racially diverse, Dem-friendly, and poor to middle class, with White, Black, and Hispanic populations that are relatively well-integrated by southern standards. The city overall is Dem-leaning, but not overwhelmingly so, with a PVI of D+12. Two candidates are facing off in the Democratic primary.

Longtime incumbent Allen Joines (D) is seeking a sixth four-year term. A former longtime appointed city staffer, Joines has served as Mayor for 19 years and has generally not faced any more than token opposition in his re-election bids. He is known as a technocratic moderate liberal, and has declined multiple recurring overtures from Democrats to run for higher office. Joines has remained broadly popular and looks like a strong favorite for re-election once again.

Nonprofit executive Joanne Allen (D) is Joines’s primary challenger. Allen is a populist who attempted to run in 2016 but did not get enough signatures to make the ballot; she has been known as something of a gadfly in city council meetings. Allen is little-known and seems unlikely to be a major threat to Joines; it would be a surprise if she even came close to toppling the incumbent. The nominee will be a strong favorite in the general over electrician Kris McCann (R), who lost a sacrificial lamb State House run in 2014.