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Holding my Breath







LegendaryActivity: 2674Merit: 1784Holding my Breath Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 02:26:52 AM #2601 Quote from: lyth0s on February 24, 2015, 02:04:25 AM Someone dumped 38,000 monero around 0.0014, they have to be shitting bricks right now.



I don't know about that. There is a good chance this was a profitable exit for a speculator. 25% gains are nothing to scoff at. Also, this trader might keep a portion of Monero as longterm investment, but have no argument against realizing a 25% gain on speculative buys made made over the last month or so. I don't know about that. There is a good chance this was a profitable exit for a speculator. 25% gains are nothing to scoff at. Also, this trader might keep a portion of Monero as longterm investment, but have no argument against realizing a 25% gain on speculative buys made made over the last month or so.

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LegendaryActivity: 2268Merit: 1041Monero Core Team Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 04:23:36 AM #2603





Disclaimer: I may hold a position in XMR (Monero), XBT (Bitcoin) and / or NMC (Namecoin). This should not be construed as investment advice. Anyone considering an investment in crypto currencies should consult their investment, legal and tax advisers. Investment in XMR or other crypto currencies may lead to a complete loss of funds. This is my follow up on the TA for the Monero bear market. It is starting to look like a textbook case of a "failed" bear market with a truncated 5th wave and breakout out of a wedge on strong volume. This is actually a rare Elliot Wave pattern. The truncated fifth wave has all the normal sub wave but either does not extend past the 3rd wave or only barely extends past the 3rd wave. In this case an over lap between the 4th and 1st sub waves is allowed because of the triangle / wedge formation. It can be a very difficult pattern to trade because one can relabel the truncated 5th wave and 4th wave into an extended 4th wave bear market correction. http://ewminteractive.com/elliott-wave-patterns/ The indication here is for a significant chance of a sharp upward move. Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card

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Holding my Breath







LegendaryActivity: 2674Merit: 1784Holding my Breath Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 04:26:34 AM #2604 But monero is so thinly traded... Your analysis looks good, but it's too easy for even a single actor to make this current market happen.

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LegendaryActivity: 2478Merit: 1711Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 04:28:29 AM #2605 Quote from: ArticMine on February 24, 2015, 04:23:36 AM





Disclaimer: I may hold a position in XMR (Monero), XBT (Bitcoin) and / or NMC (Namecoin). This should not be construed as investment advice. Anyone considering an investment in crypto currencies should consult their investment, legal and tax advisers. Investment in XMR or other crypto currencies may lead to a complete loss of funds.

This is my follow up on the TA for the Monero bear market. It is starting to look like a textbook case of a "failed" bear market with a truncated 5th wave and breakout out of a wedge on strong volume. This is actually a rare Elliot Wave pattern. The truncated fifth wave has all the normal sub wave but either does not extend past the 3rd wave or only barely extends past the 3rd wave. In this case an over lap between the 4th and 1st sub waves is allowed because of the triangle / wedge formation. It can be a very difficult pattern to trade because one can relabel the truncated 5th wave and 4th wave into an extended 4th wave bear market correction. http://ewminteractive.com/elliott-wave-patterns/ The indication here is for a significant chance of a sharp upward move.

I really like ready your analysis's but I have no clue what your saying most of the time. I really like ready your analysis's but I have no clue what your saying most of the time. Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.

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21 million. I want them all.







Hero MemberActivity: 798Merit: 100021 million. I want them all. Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 04:37:47 AM #2606 Looks like XMR formed a triple top at around .00162. That's usually pretty bearish and indicates a reversal of an uptrend.



Again, talking about chart patterns when those three tops could be one or two people seems silly. Year 2021

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LegendaryActivity: 2268Merit: 1041Monero Core Team Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 04:40:24 AM

Last edit: February 24, 2015, 04:56:28 AM by ArticMine #2607 Quote from: cAPSLOCK on February 24, 2015, 04:26:34 AM But monero is so thinly traded... Your analysis looks good, but it's too easy for even a single actor to make this current market happen.



This is a valid point; however there is the assumption that the large actors will act rationally. Even in large liquid markets a single actor can move the market. Consider for example Warren Buffet suddenly dumping the 9.1% stake in Coca Cola held by Berkshire Hathaway or Bill Gates suddenly dumping his share in Microsoft. In addition XMR has very high liquidity in proportion to its size. A sort by volume in



Edit: The case for Technical Analysis on thinly traded crypto currencies has been made before. For example by s3052 in October 2010 for Bitcoin. This is a valid point; however there is the assumption that the large actors will act rationally. Even in large liquid markets a single actor can move the market. Consider for example Warren Buffet suddenly dumping the 9.1% stake in Coca Cola held by Berkshire Hathaway or Bill Gates suddenly dumping his share in Microsoft. In addition XMR has very high liquidity in proportion to its size. A sort by volume in http://coinmarketcap.com/all/ currently places XMR in 5th place overall. It is not like doing Elliot Wave analysis on BCN for example.Edit: The case for Technical Analysis on thinly traded crypto currencies has been made before. For example by s3052 in October 2010 for Bitcoin. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0 . Bitcoin in October 2010 was smaller in capitalization and trading volume than Monero is today. Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card

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Full MemberActivity: 196Merit: 100 Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 09:55:48 AM #2608

in time to compete with DRK in terms of gains Monero price looking healthy https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc in time to compete with DRK in terms of gains

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LegendaryActivity: 1624Merit: 1008 Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 12:59:57 PM #2611 Quote from: 0nlyBTC on February 24, 2015, 01:40:48 AM So what's the goal for the latest price rise?



Don't know and don't care as my speculation is almost entirely long term. When I trade it's on the variations of the down swings so if I can't sell what I bought I end up with more Monero😀😀😀 Don't know and don't care as my speculation is almost entirely long term. When I trade it's on the variations of the down swings so if I can't sell what I bought I end up with more Monero😀😀😀

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Hero MemberActivity: 798Merit: 1000 Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 01:34:18 PM #2612



*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

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LegendaryActivity: 1092Merit: 1000 Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 01:42:33 PM #2613 Quote from: dreamspark on February 24, 2015, 01:34:18 PM



*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

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Hero MemberActivity: 742Merit: 500 Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 03:16:13 PM #2615 Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 24, 2015, 01:42:33 PM Quote from: dreamspark on February 24, 2015, 01:34:18 PM



*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.



Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.



if this is the case now - I do not know the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.if this is the case now - I do not know

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21 million. I want them all.







Hero MemberActivity: 798Merit: 100021 million. I want them all. Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 03:19:34 PM

Last edit: February 24, 2015, 03:29:51 PM by jehst #2616 Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 24, 2015, 01:42:33 PM Quote from: dreamspark on February 24, 2015, 01:34:18 PM



*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.



Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

Everyone has his or her cost-basis. As I only began buying in the winter of 2014, my cost-basis is quite low, and I don't mind buying around it if there's sufficient volume. Everyone has his or her cost-basis. As I only began buying in the winter of 2014, my cost-basis is quite low, and I don't mind buying around it if there's sufficient volume. Year 2021

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DonatorLegendaryActivity: 1722Merit: 1016 Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 03:32:28 PM #2617

If you subscribe to buy low-sell high speculation investment paradigm, it makes sense to flip the position on-off, provided that you are sufficiently smarter than the market.



If you are a believer, skipping some of the downward moves increases your position when you buy back more with no additional cash.



If you are not a believer, going in only in the times of upward momentum and out all the rest of the time, you capture 20-50% of the upside and hold your capital at risk perhaps 5-10% of the time, a good tradeoff.





BUT...



If you subscribe to the Venture Capital investment paradigm, you just take the position and don't speculate with it. You have a predetermined exit point (for a liquid asset, an exit plan that might have multiple sales) and then you just wait whether it is reached or (typically) not, and even the latter is OK. All money invested is treated as non-recoverable.



This has the advantage that you don't cut your gains. Of course the losses run 100% as well but the losses are capped to 100% while the gains are capped only at the maximum potential of the investment, which in XMR's case is really much above the current value.



- Right now, the fully mined market cap of XMR is 7 million USD

- Of BTC, it's (approx) 7,000 million USD

- Of gold, -..- 7,000,000 million USD.



If XMR gains the same position that BTC has now (without regard to what happens to BTC), we are talking about 100,000% return.



The value of gold is a bit high, after all it is higher than that of any company, but it cannot be ruled out. In fact, if it is not reached, the crypto revolution has failed to liberate mankind. So unless you are 100.000000% sure that crypto will never make it, you also cannot rule out the potential of XMR achieving a 100,000,000% return.



"It might make sense to buy some, just in case it takes off" -Satoshi (paraphrased)

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DonatorLegendaryActivity: 1722Merit: 1016 Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 03:55:53 PM #2618





- Buy XMR now at $0.35. Most people can set aside $1,000 so that'll be 3,000 XMR, a rather easy buy even in the illiquid exchange.



- Write it off. Don't care about what you could have bought with it. Work overtime to recoup the money if you must, or skip a trip, to make it emotionally OK that you have given the money away.



- Do some productive stuff, don't follow XMR unless you care about the nascent payment network and services in alpha stage.



- Wait, until it hits $2 (not that hard, we were doing it for months last summer; the ath = $5), if the day arrives, sell 500 XMR and get back 100% of your original investment. If anything, now you should be totally ok to just wait where it goes.



- Continue your life.



- Sell 500 XMR every time it goes up 10x from the previous sale. This way the schedule is:



500 XMR @ $2

500 XMR @ $20

500 XMR @ $200

500 XMR @ $2,000 (gain $1 million)

500 XMR @ $20,000 (gain $10 Mm)

500 XMR @ $200,000 except since at this point you are set for life plus have XMR that is worth 100 million in purchasing power, it's hardly necessary to sell it unless you need something.



$200,000 * 18 million coins = $3,600 billion, still <1% of the current total in USD-denominated assets, so as such, not even a win for crypto but a good start





ADD: Oh forgot to mention: never, EVER:



- sell at a loss

- deviate from the plan in any other way.





It is so easy that I am crying to make it accessible for you- Buy XMR now at $0.35. Most people can set aside $1,000 so that'll be 3,000 XMR, a rather easy buy even in the illiquid exchange.- Write it off. Don't care about what you could have bought with it. Work overtime to recoup the money if you must, or skip a trip, to make it emotionally OK that you have given the money away.- Do some productive stuff, don't follow XMR unless you care about the nascent payment network and services in alpha stage.- Wait, until it hits $2 (not that hard, we were doing it for months last summer; the ath = $5), if the day arrives, sell 500 XMR and get back 100% of your original investment. If anything, now you should be totally ok to just wait where it goes.- Continue your life.- Sell 500 XMR every time it goes up 10x from the previous sale. This way the schedule is:500 XMR @ $2500 XMR @ $20500 XMR @ $200500 XMR @ $2,000 (gain $1 million)500 XMR @ $20,000 (gain $10 Mm)500 XMR @ $200,000 except since at this point you are set for life plus have XMR that is worth 100 million in purchasing power, it's hardly necessary to sell it unless you need something.$200,000 * 18 million coins = $3,600 billion, still <1% of the current total in USD-denominated assets, so as such, not even a win for crypto but a good start- sell at a loss- deviate from the plan in any other way. HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth , Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom , Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!) , Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)

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LegendaryActivity: 1092Merit: 1000 Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation February 24, 2015, 05:36:59 PM #2619 Quote from: nakaone on February 24, 2015, 03:16:13 PM Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 24, 2015, 01:42:33 PM Quote from: dreamspark on February 24, 2015, 01:34:18 PM



*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.



Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.



if this is the case now - I do not know

the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.if this is the case now - I do not know

The time will tell.

I still have my Moneros locked in a safe.



However I am still concerned the high emission which makes high prices impossible these days. The time will tell.I still have my Moneros locked in a safe.However I am still concerned the high emission which makes high prices impossible these days.