Oil and gas industry expansions could add as much greenhouse gas pollution as the equivalent of 50 coal plants by 2025 — with much of that increase coming from Texas and Louisiana — at a time when pressure to slow down global warming rises, a new report found.

Over the next five years, the industry plans to build or expand 157 plants, in addition to more drilling that could release up to 227 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions — up to 30 percent more more than 2018, according to the Environmental Integrity Project’s new report, “Greenhouse Gases from Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Production.”

Although greenhouse gas emissions in the United States fell about 2 percent last year, mostly as a result of a decrease in coal consumption, that modest progress is being undercut by the expansion in the oil and gas industry, said Eric Schaeffer, executive director of the Environmental Integrity Project, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization that advocates for enforcement of environmental laws. It was founded in 2002 by former Environmental Protection Agency attorneys.

“We think this is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions and that the amount that’s already here and what is likely to be added into the atmosphere is pretty alarming,” Schaeffer said.

Reid Porter, a spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute, said that the industry is improving in controlling emissions. “Industry initiatives, including efforts like The Environmental Partnership,” he said, “underscore the industry’s commitment to leveraging new technologies and innovative practices that reduce emissions and establish clear pathways for continuous environmental improvement.”

For its analysis, EIP focused on companies that extract or refine oil and gas, export liquefied natural gas, or manufacture petrochemicals, plastics, or fertilizers. The group based its data on industry reports to the EPA, the Department of Energy’s estimate of future oil and gas production, and from permits that authorize increased emissions from proposed oil, gas, and chemical projects. It doesn’t include smaller projects that aren’t required to obtain permits that limit greenhouse gases.

The United States has become a global leader in oil and natural gas production, and the industry has been a huge boon to the Texas economy, creating jobs and spurring economic growth. But it comes with consequences, in the form of both greenhouse gases and pollutants known to harm human health, said Courtney Bernhardt, director of Research at the Environmental Integrity Project.

According to the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero by 2050 to have a shot at limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

More Information Future petrochemical and plastic projects with potential to emit the most greenhouse gases in Texas: Company CO2e (tons per year) Operational Status Year Operating or Expected Completion Date Motiva Enterprises, LLC 3,993,017 Pre-construction 2024 Formosa Plastics Corporation 3,868,872 Commissioning 2019 Gulf Coast Growth Ventures (GCGV) Asset Holding (ExxonMobil & SABIC) 2,933,595 Pre-Construction 2022 INEOS Olefins & Polymers U.S.A. 1,772,804 Under Construction 2019 Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LP 1,737,346 Pre-construction 2024 Source: Environmental Integrity Project

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Texas has the highest emissions from coal, petroleum and natural gas of all the states, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Houston takes the top spot when measured per capita. In 2014, Houston residents and businesses generated nearly 35 million tons of greenhouse gases through carbon-fueled buildings, cars and waste. If nothing is done, city officials have said this number is projected to rise to at least 45 million per year by 2050.

Scientists have linked climate change to bigger and more frequent storms, as well as increased temperatures and more intense droughts. For instance, Tropical Storm Imelda, which dumped as much as 43 inches of rain in some parts of southeast Texas, was twice as likely and 10 to 15 percent stronger due to climate change, according to scientists at Texas A&M and the University of Oxford in the UK.

About half (76 of the 157) of the future projects analyzed by the EIP are planned for Texas and Louisiana, which together could produce 75 percent of the expected increases from new oil and gas-related projects across the United States.

The Permian Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, which is now the most productive oil field in the world, produced over 4.3 million barrels per day on average in 2019 and accounted for approximately 50 percent of U.S. oil production, according to EIP.

Reported greenhouse emissions from companies operating in the Permian Basin have more than doubled from 10.5 million tons to 25.3 million tons between 2012 and 2018, the group said.

Porter, the American Petroleum Institute spokesman, said that emissions of methane — a greenhouse gas that is 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the first two decades after its release — in the Permian Basin have decreased over a similar period (2011-18) relative to production.

Some of the world’s largest companies have pledged to reduce emissions and are increasingly openly recognizing the need to address climate change.

The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers didn’t respond to a request for comment, but has said its “members are constantly innovating and seeking new ways to reduce emissions, including investing in carbon capture and storage projects, and new technologies to reduce flaring emissions and incidents.”

The Houston Chronicle recently highlighted a partnership between Occidental Petroleum and the French energy major Total to capture carbon.

Still, the overall amount of greenhouse gases emitted by the oil, gas and petrochemical industry increased 8 percent, or 57 million tons, between 2016 and 2018, according to EIP’s report.

“It’s all about the tons in the end,” said Schaeffer, former director of civil enforcement at the Environmental Protection Agency.

Jim Blackburn, co-director of Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction Education and Evacuation from Disasters (SSPEED) Center, said these figures are not acceptable.

“It indicates the oil and gas industry needs to start coming up with a plan to capture and remove carbon emissions,” he said.

“They need to start doing something; we all do,” he added. “The entire society is going to have to start doing some type of removal activities for carbon dioxide.”

Otherwise, he warned, some of these companies will become obsolete.

Many Texans should especially care, Schaeffer said. “You are going to be underwater unless you live in a houseboat.”

A lot of these facilities are being built at sea level, he said, and “I’m not sure the infrastructure is being hardened to withstand the impacts of climate change.”

The Gulf of Mexico, where 44 percent of U.S. oil refining capacity is located, could see 4 feet of sea level rise between now and 2100, the EIP said in the report, leading to flooding that could severely hamper refining operations.

Among the group’s recommendations is for state environmental agencies and the EPA to issue permits that include cost-effective measures to minimize greenhouse gas pollution.

“We need permit limits that reflect the best industry can do not that most they can get away with,” he said.

The fact that this is not already happening, he added, “suggests we still have our heads in the sand.”

perla.trevizo@chron.com