Depressing poll of the day Presented by U.S. Bank

DEPRESSING POLL OF THE DAY — The latest Marketplace-Edison Research survey shows economic anxiety is up to 36 from 30 a year ago (the scale runs 0-100). But that’s not the depressing part of the poll’s findings. It’s this: 25 percent of Americans “completely distrust the economic data reported by the federal government, including statistics like the unemployment rate, the number of jobs added, and the amount of consumer spending.” Perhaps unsurprisingly, that number soars to 48 percent of Donald Trump supporters compared to just 5 percent of Hillary Clinton supporters.

Trump’s constant railing about phony economic numbers as well as his citing vast conspiracy theories that an international cabal (including global bankers) is bent on stealing the election from him certainly can’t be helping. Trump tripled down on these theories in a dark speech in Florida on Wednesday that sounded to MM very similar to the coded nationalist, anti-Semitic rhetoric spouted by Father Charles Coughlin on the radio in the 1930s. Dark times, indeed.

The survey also found that 62 percent of Americans believe the economy is “rigged” in favor of certain groups. Full findings and methodology are here.

CAN TRUMP’S BRAND SURVIVE TRUMP? — POLITICO’s Lorraine Woellert: “Early last week, the Trump International Hotel & Tower Vancouver launched a meet-the-Trumps contest to publicize its grand opening. As the big day approached, a Twitter stream tracked progress on the project’s luxe finishing touches. Then the world heard Donald Trump brag about groping women, and the fun stopped. The developer, the Holborn Group, hasn’t tweeted about the property since.

“The tower’s fall opening has been pushed to January. Coincidence? Neither Holborn nor the Trump Organization responded to requests for comment. Trump the candidate has been tarnishing Trump the brand for at least a year. Macy’s, Perfumania, Serta and the PGA severed ties soon after he kicked off his candidacy with a speech that accused Mexico of sending criminals and rapists to the U.S. … ‘If there is a game changer, this is it,’ said Gene Grabowski, a partner at Kglobal, a D.C.-based public affairs firm. ‘Until last week, his brand was bulletproof. Now I’m not so sure.’” Read more.

CLINTON TEAM WORRIED ABOUT WALL STREET SPEECHES — POLITICO’s Ben White: “Hillary Clinton’s top advisers late last year were extremely worried about revelations in Clinton’s paid speeches to Wall Street banks and argued internally about ways to soften the political blow, newly hacked emails show.

“In an email exchange from November 2015, as Clinton was preparing for challenges from the left in the Democratic primary, campaign aides Brian Fallon, Jake Sullivan and Dan Schwerin, along with outside adviser Mandy Grunwald, discussed leaking excerpts from a paid Clinton speech to Deutsche Bank to offset reporting in POLITICO and other outlets on gentle things the candidate said about Wall Street in paid remarks to Goldman Sachs” Read more.

WARREN CALLS FOR MARY JO WHITE’S FIRING — POLITICO’s Patrick Temple-West: “Sen. Elizabeth Warren is calling on President Barack Obama to immediately replace the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, her strongest condemnation yet of the nation's stock-market regulator. ‘I do not make this request lightly,’ Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, said in an Oct. 14 letter to Obama. ‘I have tried both publicly and privately to persuade Chair [Mary Jo] White to direct the agency's resources toward pressing matters of compelling interest to investors and the public, and toward completing those rules that Congress has required it to implement.

“‘But after years of fruitless efforts, it is clear that Chair White is set on her course. The only way to return the SEC to its intended purpose is to change its leadership,’ Warren said. Obama appointed White as head of the SEC in January 2013. But Warren, who voted to confirm her, started her attacks in 2015 saying she was ‘disappointed’ with White’s performance at the SEC.” Read more.

PLEASE READ — Again, we are going to try hard to stick to our “less Trump” theme in MM, promise. But if you haven’t read Trump’s speech in Florida, you should. The danger lurking in it is very real. Text and video is here.

HOW TO BLOW CRISIS MANAGEMENT — WSJ’s Emily Glazer: “It was clear John Stumpf, chief executive of Wells Fargo & Co., was in trouble on Sept. 20, when senators from both parties castigated him over the bank’s sales practices. … The bank could have been better prepared. Summoned for hearings in Washington, Mr. Stumpf and other executives didn’t answer many questions from legislators — in public or private — about sales practices that had led the bank to agree to a $185 million fine and regulatory enforcement action. …

“Even before the hearings, Wells Fargo had been slow-footed in responding to outrage over employee behavior that included opening as many as 2 million unauthorized accounts without customer knowledge. It misjudged the significance of firing 5,300 employees over five years for related bad behavior, failing to tell its own board of the number before regulators made it public. The botched response, a textbook example of how not to handle a crisis, reached a peak when Mr. Stumpf stepped down” Read more.

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Well it doesn’t feel that good, to be honest. But 25 days, right? Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. And email Andrew Hanna and [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @andrewbhanna.

DRIVING THE DAY — Treasury plans to release its semi-annual currency report which should provide fodder for Trump assuming China is once again not labeled a currency manipulator … President Obama campaigns for Hillary Clinton in Cleveland … Trump campaigns in Greesnboro and Charlotte, N.C. … Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.6 percent, 0.5 percent ex-autos … Producer prices at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.2 percent headline and 0.1 percent core … Univ. of Michigan Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise to 92.0 from 91.3.

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Victoria Guida on what Wells Fargo can expect from Congress now that CEO Stumpf is gone — and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. — please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or [email protected].

STRESSED BY 2016? YOU ARE NOT ALONE — New survey research suggests the dismal 2016 is driving us all bonkers. Read more.

TAX REFORM AHEAD? — Via Goldman Sachs: “Corporate tax reform is an area of (rare) common agreement for Clinton and Trump … An earnings repatriation tax holiday would benefit firms with high earnings overseas: At present, foreign earnings are taxed only if and when they are repatriated. Politicians on both sides of the aisle have proposed a lower one-time tax on untaxed foreign profits of US firms. A tax holiday would benefit our newly rebalanced basket of 50 S&P 500 stocks with the highest earnings held overseas …

“Stocks in the basket account for $1.7 trillion of $2.4 trillion earnings held overseas by all S&P 500 firms. Stocks include MSFT, GE, AAPL, and PFE. Our economists assign a 50% likelihood of tax reform during 2017: Under the current consensus election outcome of a Clinton victory and a divided Congress, agreement on tax and other issues is uncertain. In addition, a tax holiday would likely be part of a more comprehensive corporate tax reform package.”

A message from U.S. Bank Banks must do more and better to reverse systemic inequality. At U.S. Bank, that starts by committing $116 million to address social and economic inequities and elevating Black voices and Black-owned businesses. Because we’re small enough to care – and big enough to make a difference. Learn more.

HARD BREXIT OR NO BREXIT — POLITICO’s David M. Herszenhorn: “In unusually blunt language, European Council President Donald Tusk said Thursday that the U.K. should brace for the ‘painful; consequences of leaving the EU, and flatly ruled out any possibility of Britain gaining access to the single market without allowing the free movement of workers. British leaders, including Prime Minister Theresa May, have insisted that the U.K. will retake control of immigration policy — a core demand of the proponents of Brexit.

“But German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already said that the four fundamental freedoms enshrined in the EU treaty were non-negotiable, a position Tusk reiterated in plain, forceful language. ‘The only real alternative to a hard Brexit, is no Brexit,’ Tusk said.’“Even if today, hardly anyone believes in such a possibility.’ … In his speech at a conference sponsored by the European Policy Centre, Tusk mocked the leading proponents of Brexit who had promised British voters that when it came to the EU, they would be able to have their cake and eat it, too” Read more.

BUYER’S REMORSE — WSJ’s Thomas Gryta and Deepa Seetharaman: “Verizon Communications Inc. signaled it may demand to renegotiate its $4.8 billion deal for Yahoo Inc. following the internet company’s recent disclosure of a data breach that affected more than 500 million accounts.

“Legal experts said the contract language gives Verizon leverage to renegotiate or even walk away because of the security breach, but enforcing material adverse change clauses is difficult and courts have resisted their use.” Read more.

DEUTSCHE HIRING FREEZE — NYT’s Chad Bray: “Deutsche Bank has instituted a companywide hiring freeze as the embattled lender looks to speed up efforts to reduce costs and regain the confidence of investors as concerns mount about the progress of its turnaround, according to a person familiar with the bank’s plans.

“The lender is restricting new hiring across its business for the time being, but it would still make external hires as necessary for crucial functions, such as compliance or anti-money-laundering programs, said the person, who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.” Read more.

ALL ABOARD THE HYPE TRAIN — Bloomberg’s Sarah McBridge: “Hyperloop Technologies Inc., a Los Angeles-based company building a futuristic transportation system, said it raised $50 million in convertible-debt financing and hired Uber Technologies Inc.’s former chief financial officer.

“Hyperloop is working on technology that would use magnetic levitation in low-pressure tubes to transport people and goods at airplane-like speeds.” Read more.

SAUDI TECH FUND — FT’s Leslie Hook: “SoftBank and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund are preparing to launch a new tech fund that will manage as much as $100bn, in a move that will create one of the largest tech investment funds in the world.

“The new fund, dubbed the SoftBank Vision Fund, will be based in London and seeded with $25bn from SoftBank and up to $45bn from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund over the next five years, according to a statement from Masayoshi Son’s Japanese telecoms group.” Read more.

SCORE ONE FOR EXXON — Washington Post’s Steven Mufson: “In a victory for ExxonMobil, a federal judge in Texas has issued a discovery order against the Massachusetts attorney general in the hotly-contested investigation about whether the oil giant concealed information about climate change from investors and the public.

“The new discovery order could open the door for an intrusive examination of Maura Healey’s internal phone records, other communications and depositions related to the Exxon case, a prospect Exxon relishes given the sweeping nature of subpoenas that the Massachusetts and New York attorneys general had obtained to investigate the company.” Read more.

AVERTING INVERSIONS — FT’s Barney Jopson: “Jack Lew, the US Treasury secretary, announced on Thursday that he was modifying the plans designed to deter deals known as inversions, which scuppered Pfizer’s $160bn takeover of Allergan when they were unveiled in April.

“The Treasury’s revisions include exempting from its crackdown the “cash pools” that companies use to manage cash. It is also exempting transactions where it deems the risk of earnings stripping is low and transactions between banks that use related-party loans in their roles as financial intermediaries.” Read more.

GIVE PEACE A (SECOND) CHANCE — AP’s Cesar Garcia: “President Juan Manuel Santos announced on Thursday that he is extending a ceasefire with Colombia's largest rebel movement in a bid to give more time to efforts to save a peace deal rejected by voters.

“Santos said in a televised address that he was extending by two months the ceasefire with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia until Dec. 31.” Read more.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR —

CHABOT ON WELLS — Per House Small Business Committee Chairman Steve Chabot (R-Ohio): “Mr. Stumpf’s resignation is a first step but there are countless more steps Wells Fargo must take to correct the damage their employees did to millions of Americans by creating fraudulent accounts in their names without their permission.

“The egregious nature of these actions cannot be overstated. The next step should be for Wells Fargo to fully respond to our Committee’s formal request for detailed information about how this scandal impacted their small business customers.”

HOW CLINTON AIDES TRIED TO STEER STEYER MONEY — POLITICO’s Andrew Restuccia: “Aides to Hillary Clinton's campaign privately debated how billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer could best help the Democratic candidate without violating campaign finance laws, according to hacked emails released by WikiLeaks Thursday.

The aides attempted to figure out a way that Steyer could host an event with Clinton even though his super PAC, NextGen Climate, was planning independent expenditures. Campaign finance rules bar coordination between campaigns and outside groups that do independent expenditures.” Read more

SAMSUNG TAKES $3 BILLION HIT — Reuters: “Samsung Electronics Co Ltd on Friday said it expected to take a hit to its operating profit of about $3 billion over the next two quarters due to the discontinuation of its fire-prone Galaxy Note 7 smartphone. The outlook brings to about $5.3 billion the total losses the global smartphone leader has forecast as a result of the overheating issues, after it said on Wednesday it would suffer a $2.3 billion hit to third-quarter profit.

“The premium device that was meant to compete with Apple Inc's latest iPhones at the top end of the smartphone market had to be scrapped earlier this week, less than two months after its launch, due to safety fears. The South Korean tech giant said in a statement on Friday it expected the blow to profit to be in the mid-3 trillion won over the next two quarters - in the mid-2 trillion won range in the October-December period and about 1 trillion won ($900 million) for the first quarter of 2017.” Read more.

DEPT OF BWAHAHAHAHA — This is a real story in the WSJ by Monica Langley: “Donald Trump will broaden his attack against the media to hit globalism and the Clinton Foundation by charging that Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim is part of a biased coalition working in collusion with the Clinton campaign and its supporters to generate news reports of decades-old allegations from several women.” Read more.

Follow us on Twitter Mark McQuillian @mcqdc



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