Gallup International Research Institutes (London and Damascus) have been tracking public opinion since the Syrian military conflict started in 2012 and over the last ten days has polled (face-to-face) a representative sample of 600 adults across Raqqa and Hasakah, the two regions in which the Turkish intervention is focussed. While unable to access those towns and villages currently under attack from the Turkish intervention, we have also included 100 Kurds who fled these villages within the last week.

The findings reveal that three in five (58%) support President Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from their areas, but among the Kurds opinion is unsurprisingly very different (33% support, 67% oppose). But what may come as a surprise to many is that the same proportion (57%) support Turkish military intervention. However, note here that while the Arab population widely support this (64%), the Kurds are understandably less enthusiastic (77% oppose it, but surprisingly 23% support it).

Based on our findings of previous polls and ongoing qualitative research we suggest there are three possible reasons for a split in the Kurdish opinion on Turkish intervention.