The Coming Disaster

As keys have climbed the economy has adjusted and persisted, but how long can that last? What if keys reach heights of 15 or 20 ref each? How will that affect ref, buds, and even unusuals? If keys reach 20 ref a piece, refined metal will be reduced to a paltry 12 cents. Scrap will be reduced to a single cent. Individual weapons will be worthless. The buying power of refined metal will have vanished all together. Years ago, a player could save up 48 dropped weapons to buy a key, but with keys at 20 ref each a player would have to save up 363. That is close to five hundred hours just for a key.Regular and especially craft hats will become less and less valuable as keys become worth more ref. Years ago, two craft hats could buy a key. With keys at 20 ref, it would take 15 hats! In essence the actual monetary value of most hats will continue to drop significantly. A craft hat in the old days was worth ~ $1.25. If keys are at 20 ref, they will be worth 16 cents.Although there is a finite amount of Buds out there, they are not a tethered currency. Therefor, their value in keys can and does fluctuate. As keys have gone up, buds have slowly gone down. This is likely do the fact that if a trader has to pay more ref for a key, they will want to trade less keys to get a bud. One day, buds will eventually reach a value of 1 key, and may even drop lower. Several years down the road, we may see buds as an intermediate currency between ref and keys.Unusuals are the real question in this equation. Many traders who own unusuals are extremely experienced. They know the monetary value of their unusuals, and as a result it is unlikely they will sell their unusuals for much less. That being said, it is possible for some unusuals to lose a bit of their value as keys' buying power increases. Imagine trading an reletively cheap unusual and being able to purchase tens of thousands of craft hatsIf nothing is done, there will come a time when the economy grinds to a hault. This will be when opening crates becomes too risky for the average player. Unless a player recieves an unusual, a very expensive killstreak kit, an another rare item, there is no value in what you are getting. For exemple: if you got a craft hat out of a box in 2010, you had earned something with over half the key you spent to open the crate. If you were to unbox a craft hat now, you earned something worth a 7th of the key. If keys are at 20 ref, you will earn something worth a 15th of the key. Opening crates has always been a boom or bust. Soon though the bust will be far worse, and the boom will remain the same. If less people are opening crates that means less stranges and goods on the market. The economy will slow down considerably and may even stop all together as a result of this.