Projecting the Democratic debate stage

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— With about a month to go before the first debate field is announced, Score games out who is on the stage — and who could be left off.


— Florida lawmakers ripped the FBI for not disclosing more information about an investigation into Russian hacking in the state.

— House Democrats plan on breaking off parts of their already-passed ethics and election reform bill, in an effort to push Republicans.

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Days until the Kentucky gubernatorial primary and PA-12 special election: 4

Days until the Louisiana gubernatorial primary election: 148

Days until the Kentucky and Mississippi general elections: 172

Days until the 2020 election: 536

THE DEBATE STAGE — We’re about a month away from the DNC formally announcing the field for the first Democratic presidential primary debates at the end of June. But we can already project many of the 20 candidates who will be on stage.

By POLITICO’s count, 19 candidates have already qualified via polling or donors (starred candidates hit both): Joe Biden*, Cory Booker*, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg*, Julián Castro*, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard*, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris*, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Amy Klobuchar*, Beto O’Rourke*, Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders*, Eric Swalwell, Elizabeth Warren*, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang*.

Several declared candidates have not hit either threshold: Michael Bennet, Seth Moulton, Bill de Blasio (others have written de Blasio has already qualified via polling; here is my reasoning for why I don’t think he has yet, though he is close), Wayne Messam and Mike Gravel.

At least four candidates won’t be up there, so who won’t make the cut? Candidates who have crossed both the polling and donor threshold should feel secure in their spots — it is unlikely that more than 20 candidates will cross both thresholds, and candidates who do get priority.

However, it is becoming increasingly likely that every candidate on stage will have to at least cross the polling threshold (candidates who hit just the polling threshold have priority over candidates who hit just the donor threshold). Eighteen of the 19 qualified candidates have already (Williamson has not, but she picked up her second qualifying poll with one percent in a Fox News poll released Thursday). Bennet and de Blasio are both one poll away from qualifying with a month’s worth of polling to go, giving them a real shot (the caveat here is we cannot predict the frequency, or results, of future polling).

Thursday’s Fox News poll was a boon to Williamson’s chances. If she can get 1 percent in one more poll between now and the qualifying deadline, that could give her a leg up on Bennet or de Blasio, who might struggle to meet the fundraising threshold given their late entry dates. Meanwhile, there’s no clear path for Gravel and Messam — Messam needs two more qualified polls, and Gravel has only be included in two qualifying polls and did not register. Moulton is also in extreme danger of missing out; he has not posted 1 percent in any qualifying polls and has not publicly said he has hit the donor threshold.

Candidates who have qualified through polling alone have not locked down their lecterns quite yet, but they should at least consider booking flights. However, if Williamson, Bennet and de Blasio all hit the polling threshold, 21 candidates will have qualified — and someone who has hit the polling threshold will be left off. The first thing candidates can do to better their odds is also cross the fundraising threshold, which has been challenging even for major officeholders.

After that, qualifying could come down to the polling average tiebreakers. Those in the most immediate danger are candidates who have just barely crossed the threshold, scoring one percent in just three polls — like Bullock and Swalwell (here is Morning Score's chart with all the polls). Others like Ryan, Inslee or Gillibrand (who has publicly criticized the rules, while a staffer for Booker has encouraged people to donate to her to secure her spot on the stage) are safer because they’ve either scored higher than one percent at least once or have gotten at least one percent in more than three polls (crossing the donor threshold would functionally assure them a spot).

PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD — De Blasio is getting a less than enthusiastic welcome into the presidential race. “The two-term mayor likes to point to his decisive margins of victory in the biggest U.S. city, but the perception that he is a bungler in chief was only reinforced by his rollout,” POLITICO New York’s Sally Goldenberg and Laura Nahmias wrote. His legacy of tardiness was also reinforced by his late entrance into the presidential race. “But de Blasio’s longstanding inability to keep to a schedule speaks to a deeper ding in his political armor: He’s not just late to ribbon cuttings and memorial services. He’s late to progressive causes, too,” POLITICO New York’s Dana Rubinstein and Sally wrote.

— Inslee released an expanded climate plan. POLITICO’s Anthony Adragna, Daniel Strauss and Gavin Bade have the details.

— Biden’s presidential campaign will be based out of Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Tamari reported.

HACK ATTACK — Florida lawmakers are railing against the FBI for not disclosing details about an investigation into Russia hacking in the state. “After a briefing with the FBI about its investigation into the 2016 cyberattacks, members of the state's congressional delegation blasted the bureau for not even revealing the names of the affected counties for almost three years,” POLITICO’s Martin Matishak and Gary Fineout reported. “Congressional lawmakers just found out Thursday the identities of the counties but did not reveal the names to reporters following the closed-door meeting with FBI officials.”

And lawmakers want more information on if anything was changed. “While the FBI and Department of Homeland Security say they have ‘no evidence’ the voter databases were tampered with by Russian hackers, ‘there's more to follow there,’ said Rep. Michael Waltz,” they wrote.

— Washington County, a small county of about 25,000 people in Florida’s panhandle, was one of the two counties that saw its registration database breached, The Washington Post’s Ellen Nakashima and Karoun Demirjian reported.

BACK FROM THE DEAD — House Democrats' flagship piece of legislation — H.R. 1 (116), the For the People Act — could be coming back... kind of. POLITICO’s Sarah Ferris reports that the House will break off individual components of the ethics and elections reform bill and give them votes on the floor in an effort to pressure Senate Republicans. However, any of the individual pieces becoming law is still very much a longshot. “A spokesman for [Majority Leader Mitch McConnell] declined to comment on whether any of the Democrats’ bills could come to the floor, but there’s little reason to think he’ll reverse course,” Sarah wrote.

— President Donald Trump’s immigration plan is probably dead on arrival in Congress, but “Instead of trying to push it through Congress, Trump is already treating the plan less like a legislative blueprint and more as a campaign document,” POLITICO’s Anita Kumar reported.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — A primary could be brewing for Democratic Rep. Richard Neal in MA-02. “A telephone survey conducted at the end of last week compared Neal's record and attributes to those of Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse, leaving Western Mass political watchers wondering if Morse is inching closer to a rumored congressional bid,” Massachusetts Playbook’s Stephanie Murray reported. “It's not clear whether Morse commissioned the poll, or someone else put it in the field. Morse didn't respond to a request for comment”.

AD WARS — Tom Steyer is back with a major ad campaign to try to push Democrats to embrace impeachment. His group, Need to Impeach, is running a $1 million buy on national cable, and in Iowa and New Hampshire, as a “message for the leaders of the Democratic Party” saying they need to impeach Trump, per The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent.

— FIRST IN SCORE — The DCCC is launching digital ads in the districts represented by all 44 Frontline Democrats, touting their votes to shore up protections for preexisting conditions and lower prescription drug prices on Thursday. The several thousand-dollar ad buy, which resembles a comic book, will run on Facebook.

THE HOUSE MAP — Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez announced she was running for the open seat in NM-03.

— Republican Safford City Councilman Chris Taylor announced he was running in AZ-01 against Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran, per the Eastern Arizona Courier’s David Bell.

— Former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor said he is looking at either running again in VA-02 or running for the Senate, in an interview with radio host John Fredericks.

— Club for Growth is pushing hard for Republican state Del. Nick Freitas in VA-07 (who has not said if he’s running or not). The group released an early poll that shows him leading a potential primary field.

THE CASH DASH — The RNC had another strong fundraising month. The Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard reported the party raised $15.9 million in April and has $34.7 million on hand.

THE SENATE MAP — Retired Army Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc told WMUR’s John DiStaso that he’s “seriously considering” running for the Senate as a Republican. "It’s something that I’m not asking to do, but it’s something that others are asking me to do,” he told DiStaso.

ALL IN THE FAMILY — The Democratic super PAC Priorities USA is moving some ad buying in-house. The super PAC is “bringing all of its digital ad-buying in-house in an effort to have more flexibility in how it’ll spend tens of millions of dollars,” HuffPost’s Kevin Robillard reported. “The group is also still exploring whether it should bring its television ad-buying in-house instead of using a media-buying agency.”

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I have a better chance of regrowing a head of hair than he has of becoming president.” — The (bald) Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y.) on de Blasio’s campaign to Bklyner.

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