Survation have new Scottish poll out tonight for the Daily Record. Topline referendum figures are YES 42%, NO 48%, Don’t know 10%. Without don’t knows it works out at YES 47%(nc), NO 53%(nc) – exactly the same split as their previous poll at the end of August.

We now have a rather odd situation with the polls. For most of the Scottish referendum campaign we’ve had a situation where all the polls were showing a very similar trend (mostly little change, with occassional slight movement towards yes), but there were systemic differences between the overall figures: companies like Survation and Panelbase were consistently showing quite a tight race, companies like YouGov, MORI and TNS were consistently showing much bigger leads for NO. These past few weeks the polls have started to show different trends – YouGov and TNS have been showing a dramatic movement towards YES, Panelbase and Survation have shown things pretty static… but this means the overall figures have suddenly become much the same, everyone now seems to be showing a tight race, with Panelbase, TNS, Survation and YouGov all showing YES between 47% and 51%.