The hurricane season begins in early June but forecasters are whispering in the weather world that it may the quietest on record for 30 years.

It’s been predicted that the Atlantic will have below average storm activity this year; North Carolina State University suggest only 4-6 names storms are expected to form with only 1-3 of these developing into hurricanes, while University College London’s Tropical Storm Risk team calculates storm activitycloser to average but still expecting a quiet season.

An average hurricane seasons has 12 named storms develop, with approximately 50% forming into hurricanes.

Why could hurricane activity decrease?

The lower forecast could be due to El Nino conditions in the central Pacific. An El Nino occurs when the waters off the coast of northern South America become unusually warm.

The warmer waters cause upper-level winds, known as wind shear, over the Atlantic Ocean which makes it more difficult for tropical storms to form. When storms do form successfully, they are not as strong.

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic have been reported as cooler than normal. This reduces the amount of energy available for storms to develop as they require surface waters that are at least 80°F.

Prepare for a quiet hurricane season

The last year to be considered a quiet hurricane season was 1983, when only 4 named storms and 3 hurricanes developed in the Atlantic.

Despite the reduced numbers it only takes one major storm to hit to cause devastation, so regardless of the forecast it is vital to prepare for the season:

• Store plenty of bottled water – one gallon per day per person.

• Plan the best way to secure you windows, doors and roof.

• Find out the evacuation routes for your area.

• Invest in a power generator in case of power outages.

• Be aware of nearby bodies of water which could be affected by the storm.

• Trim greenery such as trees and shrubbery around your home.

The forecasts should be no reason to let down your guard, so make sure you’re prepared for every eventuality.