When discussing or reviewing trade deals, particularly NAFTA, it is important to remember two baselines: (1) The trade reset is President Trump’s personal legacy initiative; it’s personal – ignore media banter – it’s personal; like, the most important thing he ever thinks about. Always. 24/7. (2) President Trump has no multinational corporations or financial interests with leverage/influence over his decision-making.

There are trillions at stake.

We begin:

“We are already looking at all the issues. We might close this, not in a matter of hours, but these days. We still have next week,” Jesus Seade, designated chief negotiator of Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, told reporters.

Here’s where it becomes important to note that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has twice asked Jesus Seade to remain AFTER hours when all other trade officials have concluded discussions. Closed-door conversations between Lighthizer and Seade; and no-one else. [Refer back to the two Trump baselines again]

Next, before reviewing the comments and presentations of the media regarding the U.S. Mexico NAFTA status; again reference the team approach, and the division of responsibility. Today, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross is meeting with the twitchy Chinese delegation – again, their arrival is not a matter of scheduling happenstance; it is directly related to the ongoing 301 hearings that began two-days-ago, Monday.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Mexico and the United States are close to resolving remaining bilateral issues in the revamp of the NAFTA trade deal, officials said, but hopes of squaring away differences on Wednesday were booted to at least later this week. “We are already looking at all the issues. We might close this, not in a matter of hours, but these days. We still have next week,” Jesus Seade, designated chief negotiator of Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, told reporters. “We shouldn’t rush, but we’re already close,” Seade added as he left the Washington offices of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer following the latest talks on renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement. Since restarting last month, the talks have focused on settling differences between Mexico and the United States that go to the heart of U.S. President Donald Trump’s complaint that NAFTA has hollowed out U.S. manufacturing to Mexico’s benefit. (read more)

Always draw references from what you know to be empirically true. President Trump will not accept the NAFTA fatal flaw. NAFTA is not currently a trade bloc. NAFTA is currently an internal agreement of terms-for-commerce between the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Because it is not a trade bloc, NAFTA is bad. The U.S. is the host (market), and Mexico/Canada are the parasites exploiting free-movement and economic access to that host.

Without new NAFTA rules; making it an actual trade bloc, where Canada and Mexico can only engage with 3rd parties based on the NAFTA group rules; there is no value in NAFTA.

That’s why Trump has essentially sidelined any 3-way discussion, and is engaged in bilateral trade talks. In addition to hiding the ‘fatal flaw’ U.S. financial and corporate media are willfully blind and intentionally obtuse on this key point.

All indications, look at it from a 30,000/ft level, are that Lighthizer has explained this to Seade. President Trump wants to see the Mexican economy gain stability and strength; and he is willing to afford time and economic value toward AMLO to achieve economic strength and more broad-based economic stability; however, team Trump will NOT allow the current exploitation to continue. Period.

Therefore, Mexico has an incredible opportunity…. but only ONE opportunity…. THIS opportunity…. to take advantage of the offer. If they politicize the deal; if they mislead, scheme, or attempt to covertly structure a trade relationship that undermines the basic offer…. POTUS Trump, regardless of opinion or political pressure, will deliver an economic backlash of the size and scale never seen. Mexico has one opportunity.

After the terms are finalized, they will likely have a time-frame where POTUS will permit the slow withdrawal of the ‘fatal flaw’ issue, while simultaneously supporting Mexico’s own internal growth in manufacturing and economic independence. This is also the goal of AMLO, and thus this builds the framework of the Win/Win.

Canada is an entirely different kettle-of-fish. Expect no magnanimous Trump approach toward Canada. By politicizing their economic interests, Justin and Chrystia have made themselves an economic adversary. Battle-hardened Trump, who is impervious to political pressure on trade/economics, will not relent. He simply doesn’t care.

In July 2017, after a speech by former President Obama to the Montreal Board of Trade, Obama instructed Trudeau on how to best weaponize his economic policy to join the anti-Trump resistance. [Conversation pictured above]

President Trump isn’t stupid; he is an apex predator when it comes to the issues of trade, commerce and economics. Trump knew the scheme, he knew the meeting, he knew the likely direction that Trudeau and Chrystia would take after receiving these instructions. And, in typically predictable form, Justin from Canada followed the left-wing plan and began working against any NAFTA renegotiation.

Justin and Chrystia intentionally planned to undermine any change and scuttle the negotiations. Hence the demands for gender issues and climate change within NAFTA.

The Canadians made a choice.

No-one forced them to make this choice.

There are no sympathies deserved.