Energy-related CO2 emissions in Germany, the largest emitter in the EU ETS, rose by 0.9% in 2015 due to increased demand and more burning of lignite and natural gas.

That’s according to estimates published on Monday by energy market research group AB Energiebilanzen, which said the figure would have been higher had it not been for an 10.5% jump in renewables-based power.

If accurate, the findings could be slightly bullish for EUA prices because the German energy sector is the single largest national source of emissions under the EU ETS.

Overall energy consumption in Germany, which is also Europe’s biggest economy, rose by 1.3% to 455 million tonnes of coal equivalent or 13,335 petajoules, AB Energiebilanzen said.

“The increase is primarily due to the weather, which was slightly cooler than the very mild previous year, and the associated higher demand for heating energy,” it added.

The firm said increased demand from Germany’s modest economic growth of 1.8% and an increase in population of around 1 million people was partially offset by improved energy efficiency.

However, the cooler year meant weather-adjusted energy consumption was actually around 1.5-2% lower, the analysts added.

“With regard to CO2 emissions, [we] anticipate only a slight increase when compared to the previous year. It was possible to cover a substantial portion of the increase in consumption with renewables and, thus, without any higher emissions.”

It said that on an annual basis, natural gas consumption rose 5% and lignite consumption rose “slightly”, while demand for hard coal dropped by 0.7%, and nuclear by 6%, mainly due to the mid-year decommissioning of a nuclear power station.

Consumption of oil-linked products dipped by 0.1%, which was largely balanced by a 4% increase in diesel, a 2% drop in gasoline, and flat demand for jet fuel.

AB Energiebilanzen said Germany’s overall energy fuel mix in 2015, compared to 2014, was as follows:

2015 2014 Oil-related products 33.8% 34.3% Natural gas 21.0% 20.4% Hard coal 12.7% 12.9% Lignite 11.9% 11.9% Nuclear 7.5% 8.1% Renewables 12.6% 11.5% Others 0.4% 0.8%

By Mike Szabo – mike@carbon-pulse.com