With Afghan security forces suffering record casualties, and their already tenuous control slipping all the time, things are looking dire in Afghanistan. But from the Taliban perspective, all these same stats add up to things looking pretty good.

The Taliban is getting stronger all the time, and now controls more of Afghanistan than at any time since the 2001 US invasion. That control is extending in all regions of the country, with them contesting substantial portions of even vital provinces, or controlling them outright.

That’s true even in the capital city of Kabul. According to the most recent SIGAR estimate, 12% of Kabul is under direct Taliban control, with another 32% of the city considered at the very least “contested.”

All of this adds up to a Taliban able to contest virtually any part of Afghanistan they choose, able to make a serious run at seizing almost any city in the country, at least temporarily, and can carry out so many simultaneous offensives that the Afghan military can’t react to them all.