WESTERN Bulldogs great Brad Johnson believes Richmond cannot make the top four and therefore will not win back-to-back flags for the first time since 1973-74.

The bookies have installed the Tigers as equal-fifth favourites for this year’s premiership — alongside Port Adelaide — but Johnson does not believe a premiership hangover is Damien Hardwick’s main obstacle.

Instead, Johnson declared the sheer difficulty of Richmond’s fixture will prohibit them from challenging for a 12th flag.

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“Initially I was thinking they might finish outside the eight,” Johnson told foxfooty.com.au.

“But with the record they have, Richmond probably will play finals. Will they finish top four? Probably not. My prediction would be between 6th and 10th.”

Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin. Photo: Michael Klein

Champion Data rates Richmond’s ‘weighted’ fixture the second toughest compared to the second easiest in 2017.

Last season the Tigers faced GWS, St Kilda, Carlton, Fremantle and Brisbane twice, winning seven of these 10 matches. They won 15 during the home and away season, finishing third.

But this year Hardwick’s men will take on premiership fancy’s Adelaide and Geelong twice in 2018, in addition to tackling Essendon, Collingwood and St Kilda in two fixtures.

Johnson cited Richmond’s lowly finish in 2016 as an anomaly which followed three successive finals campaigns.

The six-time all-Australian suggested finishing so low in 2016 allowed the club some cushioning in 2017, which played a part in them making the top four and ultimately winning the flag.

“Finishing 13th meant they had a bottom six fixture last year,” he said.

“Realistically they were a top eight team that capitalised on that to win it. That’s fair enough.

“Hardwick’s had 65 wins out of 100 games so he is actually going pretty well.

“The Dogs had to finish top four to go back-to-back. Richmond is coming off a bottom six draw to now a top six draw. They had 15 wins last year and can they achieve another 15 to get the double chance this year? I’m not so sure they can.”

Johnson watched the Bulldogs drop off in 2017 after claiming a sensational drought-breaking premiership the year before. Although he doesn’t expect the Tigers to fall quite as sharply, he said recapturing that “mojo” will be one of the playing group’s hardest tasks.

“It’s a combination of players’ mindsets and being able to create that momentum and mojo again because it was so good but now it’s stopped for four or five months,” he said.

As much as they will want to, can these young guys produce it again? Opposition teams will put more work into them. Are they going to be strong enough physically and mentally to handle that hunted mentality.

“But their biggest obstacle is the fixture.”

Richmond begins its premiership defence at the MCG against Carlton on March 22.