RRH Elections NC-3 Poll: Murphy (R) Leads Thomas (D) 51-40

One week ahead of the special election in eastern North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district, a new poll of 500 likely voters from RRH Elections shows State Rep. Greg Murphy (R) leading his main rival, former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas (D), by a margin of 51%-40%. Libertarian Tim Harris and Constitution Party candidate Greg Holt trail with 2% and 1% respectively, and 6% remain undecided. The survey also shows that Trump’s approval rating is slightly positive in the conservative-leaning district. In hypothetical 2020 matchups, Trump holds a lead over Joe Biden in the presidential race, while LG Dan Forest (R) has a modest lead over Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in the gubernatorial race in the district. The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by RRH Elections through landline and cell phone calls, and has a margin of error of 4%. RRH Elections is solely responsible for data analysis for this survey, including demographic weighting. The survey results were weighted by gender only. RRH Elections is a group of volunteer hobbyist bloggers that has no connection to any candidate or organization active in this race. This poll was entirely crowd-funded by donations from the readers of our blog.

Flip over for full results and crosstabs!

Topline Results:

2019 Congressional Special Election Greg Murphy (R) 51% Allen Thomas (D) 40% Tim Harris (L) 2% Greg Holt (C) 1% Undecided 6%

Trump Approval Approve 49% Disapprove 45% No Opinion 6%

2020 Presidential Donald Trump (R) 50% Joe Biden (D) 39% Undecided 11%

2020 Gubernatorial Dan Forest (R) 46% Roy Cooper (D) 40% Undecided 14%

Demographics & Crosstabs:

Voter Status: Total Murphy (R) Thomas (D) Others Undecided Already Voted 6% 50% 46% 3% N/A Certain to Vote 68% 49% 41% 3% 7% Likely to Vote 26% 57% 34% 2% 7%

Trump Approval: Murphy (R) Thomas (D) Others Undecided Approve (49%) 94% 1% 2% 3% Disapprove (45%) 11% 86% 2% 1% No Opinion (6%) 0% 17% 7% 76%

Gender: Total Murphy (R) Thomas (D) Others Undecided Male 47% 57% 32% 5% 6% Female 53% 46% 46% 1% 7%

Race: Total Murphy (R) Thomas (D) Others Undecided White 74% 60% 30% 4% 7% Black 21% 22% 74% 1% 4% Hispanic/Other 5% 52% 36% 0% 12%

Age: Total Murphy (R) Thomas (D) Others Undecided 18-29 14% 56% 31% 3% 10% 30-49 27% 56% 34% 5% 6% 50-69 39% 47% 44% 3% 7% 70+ 21% 52% 44% 1% 4%

Region Total Murphy (R) Thomas (D) Others Undecided Greenville Area

(Beaufort, Greene, Lenoir, Pitt) 31% 53% 40% 1% 6% New Bern Area

(Carteret, Craven, Jones, Pamlico) 29% 47% 40% 5% 8% Outer Banks & NE NC

(Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare, Hyde, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Tyrrell) 22% 43% 45% 4% 8% Jacksonville Area

(Onlsow) 18% 66% 30% 1% 2%

Methodology:

All survey design and data analysis was conducted by RRH Elections. GAJ Solutions placed 4873 live calls to cell and landline phones of likely voters in North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District on August 26-28, 2019, yielding a survey of 500 complete responses. Those who attested that they were unlikely to vote in the special election were not included in the survey. The poll was weighted by gender only; random deletion was not used as a method of weighting.

Discussion:

Ahead of next week’s special congressional election in eastern North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district, a new poll shows State Rep. Greg Murphy (R) in good position to hold the seat for Republicans. Murphy takes a majority of the vote, 51%, to 40% for his main rival, former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas (D), a lead outside the poll’s 4% margin of error. Two minor candidates are in the low single digits, while 6% remain undecided. Murphy benefits from strong performances with male voters and near-unanimous support from those who approve of President Trump. Conversely, Thomas has strong backing from Black voters and ties Murphy among women. Geographically, the conservative Jacksonville area provides a strong support base for Murphy, while Thomas does well in the Outer Banks and Democratic-leaning Elizabeth City area. A potential small good sign for Thomas is that Murphy’s highest margin comes among the least likely voters in the poll, those who say they are likely rather than certain to vote, suggesting the margin could narrow with lower turnout. However, Murphy does still lead among both those who have already voted and those who are certain to vote.Looking ahead to the 2020 race, President Trump posts an 11-point over Joe Biden in the district, while Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest leads incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper by 6 points in the district. As this seat is more conservative than the statewide electorate, these results suggest that both the presidential and gubernatorial races in North Carolina will be competitive. As for the congressional race, overall Murphy seems to be in solid position to hold the seat, but his margin of victory may underperform the prior landslide margins of his predecessor, the late Walter Jones Jr.

Poll Script:

There is a special election on September 10th for the US Congress. Are you likely to vote in it?

Already Voted Early/Absentee

Certain to vote

Likely to vote

Which of the following candidates for Congress in the September 10th special election are you most likely to vote for?

Republican Greg Murphy

Democrat Allen Thomas

Libertarian Tim Harris

Constitution Party candidate Greg Holt

I am totally undecided

Do you generally approve or disapprove of President Trump’s performance in office?

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

Thinking ahead to the 2020 election, if the presidential election were between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Republican Donald Trump

Democrat Joe Biden

I would be totally undecided

Thinking ahead to the 2020 election, if the gubernatorial election were between Democratic Governor Roy Cooper and Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Republican Dan Forest

Democrat Roy Cooper

I would be totally undecided

What is your gender?

Male

Female

What is your race?

White

Black/African-American

Other race

What is your age bracket?

18-29

30-49

50-69

70 and older

About RRH Elections:

RRH Elections is a Republican-leaning Elections Blog that discusses electoral politics, not policy, with particular attention to congressional and state races. We cover electoral news daily and provide insight into the electoral landscape. Using our in-house expertise, we have produced ten polls, eight of which have predicted the margin in their races to within four points. RRH Elections is run by a team of 9 unpaid hobbyists, all with no connection to any candidate or group active in this race. Funding for this poll comes entirely from the donations of our readers. If you enjoyed this poll, please visit our site and donate so that we may bring you more surveys like it in the future. Our site can be found at http://rrhelections.com. To contact us for comments or questions about this poll, the best way is by email at rrhelections@gmail.com.