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The Flaw: Inexperience (and questionable shooting)

The whole "you can't win a title with freshmen as your leaders" theory went out the window with the 2012 Kentucky team. It was kicked even further to the curb by the 2015 Duke team.

Each of them, however, had three non-freshmen (including one senior) among their six top scorers, so there's still reason to believe you can't win it all without at least a little veteran support.

Could Duke be the team to end that narrative?

If any batch of freshmen is going to pull it off, you would think it's this one. RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish and Zion Williamson are arguably the three best players in this year's class. Tre Jones might be the best point guard. And even forgotten 4-star small forward Joey Baker* could make a huge impact.

But the Blue Devils lost all five of their leading scorers and don't have a returning player who averaged more than 4.0 points, 4.0 rebounds or 1.0 assist per game. Suffice to say there's no Quinn Cook on this roster to be the stable senior.

If anyone is going to make a leap, Alex O'Connell is the most likely guy. He shot 48.9 percent from three-point range last year and may well be the top perimeter threat for the Blue Devils. That's far from a guarantee, though, and we're still only talking about a sophomore with fewer than 400 minutes of collegiate experience. Can he really be their veteran leader?

Among the older guys, Marques Bolden was a highly touted recruit in 2016, but he has yet to even remotely tap into that potential. Javin DeLaurier has been a valuable offensive rebounder, defender and all-around energy guy off the bench, but it's unknown if he can be counted on for anything other than occasional spurts.

Duke will be extremely good. But it will also go through peaks and valleys and may have some trouble saving its best for last, as freshmen—because of a combination of fatigue and opposing coaches having game tape to work with—often hit the proverbial wall in mid-February.

*No one is talking about Baker, and I don't know why.

Rob Dauster didn't even mention him in his Duke preview for NBC Sports. But Baker's 247Sports rating is almost identical to those of Zach Collins, Cassius Winston, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyler Dorsey, Donovan Mitchell and Jawun Evans in recent years.

He probably won't start, but he could be a critical rotation piece for the Blue Devils.