As Election Day comes closer and polling numbers become clearer, there seem to be seven ways for Donald Trump to win the White House.

The seven Trump victory scenarios assume there are seven swing states: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18) and Pennsylvania (20).

The bad news for Trump: Every path requires Trump to win Florida. There is no margin for error there.

Hillary Clinton could lose Florida and still have 11 paths to victory that don't have any single must-win state.

Pennsylvania and Ohio are near must-wins for Trump. If he wins Florida but loses Pennsylvania, he has to win the five remaining swing states. If he wins Florida but loses Ohio, then Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Pennsylvania become must-wins.

All seven scenarios require Trump to win at least five of the seven swing states. The "win Florida, lose Pennsylvania" path requires him to win six.



In those seven states, Clinton and Trump are within 2.5 percentage points of each other. That's according to the RealClearPolitics average of the race (using polls that include Gary Johnson and, when possible, Jill Stein).

Keep in mind, those polls were taken before the first presidential debate. Given the number of undecided voters, the polls could soon change.

There's also a large number of third-party voters. That number typically drops as Election Day approaches. For the time being, Clinton and Trump combine for only 85 percent of the popular vote.

That said, here are Trump's seven paths to victory.

Path 1

Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona and Nevada (listed in order of most electoral votes).



Path 2

Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Arizona.



Path 3

Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Nevada.



Path 4

Trump wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. This is the only path where Trump wins without Pennsylvania.



Path 5

Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona and Colorado.



Path 6

Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Colorado.



Path 7

Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado. This is the only path where Trump wins without Ohio.



You may notice I gave Trump one of Maine's electoral votes and Clinton one of Nebraska's electoral votes. If Trump ends up winning all of Nebraska and Clinton wins all of Maine, it does not affect these scenarios. Trump winning all of Maine and Nebraska also does not affect these scenarios.

If Clinton wins all of Maine and one electoral vote from Nebraska, it limits Trump to six victory paths and opens up two potential tie scenarios.

Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.