On Monday, I discussed the idea of buying out Paul Martin. So, it seemed fitting that I should discuss another buyout/trade candidate for the San Jose Sharks: Mikkel Boedker.

The Sharks signed Mikkel Boedker to a four-year, $16 million contract in the summer of 2016 looking to add more depth scoring to the lineup as well as adding more speed, two things that the Sharks lacked in their loss in the Stanley Cup Finals to the Pittsburgh Penguins just a month prior. The contract was considered to be a bit steep, but the Sharks thought that they saw potential in a player who had hit 50 points twice playing for two of the worst teams in the NHL.

From the very beginning, Boedker has been an odd fit on the Sharks. His first season with the team was quite disappointing, to put it lightly, only posting 26 points in 81 games. There were already questions of fit only a year into an expensive four-year deal. Come Christmas of 2017, things weren’t looking much better for Boedker, sitting at eight points in 29 games for San Jose.

However, as soon as the calendar flipped to January, a new year seemed to signal a change in Mikkel Boedker. Over the last 45 games of the season, Boedker scored 29 points, a 53-point pace over 82 games. He found a home on the second line with Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl. He had a decent playoff run with the Sharks as well, tallying six points in 10 games.

But as the Sharks approach an offseason where they might want to clear as much cap space to chase after high-end free agents like John Tavares, John Carlson, and Paul Stastny, or maybe a big trade like Erik Karlsson, Boedker’s hefty contract may be a casualty. Whether it be by a trade or through a buyout, the Sharks may opt to deal with his contract sooner rather than later, but other circumstances may mean that the team could keep Boedker in the lineup for at least another year.

Currently, according to CapFriendly, if the salary cap stays at $75 million, which it likely won’t, the Sharks have roughly $14.5 million in cap space. It is expected that the salary cap for next season will be between $78 million and $82 million, giving the Sharks anywhere between $17.5 million and $21.5 million in cap space. We’ll go into the details of how the Sharks will use that cap space and who will re-sign with them another time, but the Sharks should have enough cap space to re-sign their RFA’s and enough to entice an Evander Kane or maybe a Paul Stastny. But if the Sharks are truly committed to landing someone like John Tavares, depending on how much the salary cap grows, they might have to clear out some more cap space. Buying out Paul Martin’s contract might be enough, but if the Sharks need more cap room, buying out Boedker’s contract as well might not be a bad idea.

But it’s also not just this year that the Sharks need to start thinking about using cap space efficiently. The extensions for Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Martin Jones kick in next year. Joe Pavelski will need a new contract next summer. Logan Couture will need a new contract next summer. The Sharks are going to have to make several hard decisions over the next year or so to determine the future of the team, and that starts by efficiently using their available cap space.

So the Sharks face two questions: Is Mikkel Boedker a good use of their cap space? If no, then is buying him out or trading him away worth it?

Unlike Paul Martin, on the surface, Mikkel Boedker has both value to his team and trade value. Boedker was the Sharks’ seventh-best scorer last season. If the Boedker we see next year is the one that we saw the second half of the year, than maybe this isn’t necessarily a bad investment by the Sharks. At the same time, another team might just see the points Boedker had over the second half of the season and be interested in a trade.

Yet, the Sharks are likely better off with a trade or a buyout because Boedker doesn’t bring anything to the table that the Sharks don’t already have on the roster or can’t easily replace. The Sharks are seeing tremendous growth from forwards like Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc, and Marcus Sorensen. Dylan Gambrell and Rudolfs Balcers could both make the team next year. There are plenty of forward options in free agency that the Sharks could pursue, like James Neal, David Perron, Paul Stastny, Evander Kane, James van Riemsdyk, or Patrick Maroon, all of whom are likely better investments than in Boedker.

Because here’s the thing: points aren’t everything.

Here’s the performance of Boedker’s teammates with him and without him, courtesy of Micah McCurdy from hockeyviz.com

While the scoresheet might have said that he found a home on the second line, he was actually the anchor, not the rudder. Mikkel Boedker played on six different line combinations for over 50 minutes. Only two of them had a CF% that was higher than 50%, and both of those line combinations had a ZSR over 60. Three of them were over 50% in terms of xGF%.

Conclusions

If there was ever a time to sell high on Mikkel Boedker, now would be the time. To some teams, using that kind of cap space is fine because Boedker does have the potential to score 50 points. This wouldn’t be trying to get some poor team to absorb a contract like Paul Martin, Pavel Datsyuk, or Matt Beleskey. Boedker does have some attributes that NHL teams love, such as his speed, his ability to enter the zone successfully using that speed, and being able to put the puck in the back of the net from time to time. It is entirely possible that the Sharks could find a reasonable trade partner without having to give up picks.

But even if they can’t, buying him out wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world. Boedker’s contract would count for $2 million against the cap for the next two years and $1 million for two years after that. However, if the Sharks are going to buy out Paul Martin as well, that might create some problems. GM’s hate using buyouts because not only are you paying money to not have a player on your team, but it’s an admission of failure, that you were wrong for signing a guy to that deal. And using two of them in the same offseason? Brutal.

Even if it is unlikely, it’s something that the Sharks should at least explore. Would it kill the Sharks to keep Boedker on the team for another year? No, not really. Still, as said earlier, the Sharks are going to have to make some difficult decisions regarding the roster and the salary cap if they are going to be successful in the post-Thornton/Marleau era. And that might just start with trying to figure out what to do with Mikkel Boedker.

All advanced stats courtesy of Corsica.hockey

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