As you’ve probably heard, Donald Trump is currently running for reelection on the strength of the economy, which his team believes will cancel out the corruption, incompetence, white supremacy, and authoritarianism. That pitch will be slightly more difficult if the president’s economic “policies” help tip the economy into a recession, which a new poll shows 6 in 10 Americans believe will happen by the end of the year. Equally worrisome for a guy who openly fantasizes about sticking around the White House for another four terms? The news that a key 2020 battleground state has the highest risk of a recession of any state in the country.

Analysis by LendingTree Inc. shows that Michigan, which played an essential role in catapulting Trump to the White House in 2016, has a 59% chance of “experiencing weak economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter,” followed by Hawaii and Montana. While the North Carolina–based firm said that most states do not face a major risk of recession by the end of the year, Michigan‘s unemployment rate has risen to 4.3% from 4% in March, compared to the 3.7% jobless rate for the country overall as of August (statewide unemployment data comes a month after national numbers).

Michigan, of course, is home to the auto industry, where Trump’s trade war has, in the words of one business owner, “mucked up the works.” Bloomberg also notes that the Institute for Supply Management’s index of manufacturing activity showed Michigan (in addition to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) lost factory jobs in recent months, despite Trump’s insistence that he is the messiah of manufacturing industry.

According to the president though, recessions are fake news cooked up by the treasonous media and Democrats. “I view much of the media as simply an arm of the Democrat Party,” he tweeted Monday. “They are corrupt, and they are extremely upset at how well our Country is doing under MY Leadership, including the Economy, where there is NO Recession, much to the regret of the LameStream Media! They are working overtime to help the Democrats win in 2020, but that will NEVER HAPPEN, Americans are too smart!”

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Speaking of how well the trade war is going

According to Moody’s Analytics, it’s killed 300,000 jobs, compared to where unemployment levels would be without his "good and easy to win" dispute with Beijing, combining jobs cut by firms reeling from tariffs and jobs that would have been created due to reduced economic activity. And if someone doesn’t get it through Trump’s impenetrable head that the U.S. is not "winning" this war?? Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told Yahoo Finance he estimates 450,000 jobs will be lost by the end of the year, and 900,000 by the end of 2020.

Trump fires another cabinet member via Tweet

Nothing to see here, just business as usual: