By now you’ve likely heard that the chances of a recession have sharply increased over the past two weeks, a turn of events that would be very bad for a guy trying to get reelected based on the strength of the economy. Donald Trump, still apparently working under the assumption that trade wars are “good and easy to win,” has naturally blamed everything on Fed chief Jerome Powell and reportedly believes the chairman of the Federal Reserve is conspiring with others to cause a recession so he can’t win another term. And while the president’s advisers spent the weekend publicly insisting that a downturn will never happen so long as Donald J. Trump is in the White House, privately, they’re said to be considering a range of actions to protect the economy from their boss.

According to the Washington Post, a number of senior White House officials have been discussing whether to push for a temporary payroll tax cut in an effort to boost spending. As a result of Trump’s trade war with Beijing, businesses have pulled back on investments and manufacturing has slowed; while consumer spending has remained a bright spot, the next round of tariffs, delayed until the end of December, could change the equation significantly. In a note sent to clients on Monday, JPMorgan estimated that the latest round will cost the average American household $1,000 a year, which is not much more than the tax break they got from the 2017 legislation. “What distinguishes China Phase III tariffs from preceding tariffs is the impact to Consumption and Capital goods whereas previous tariffs focused more on Intermediate goods,” wrote JPMorgan head of U.S. equity strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. “This suggests that the expected consumer impact should be larger in the latest round.”

In addition to a possible payroll tax cut, aides are said to be discussing the idea of reversing some of the tariffs, per the New York Times. The White House has disputed both reports, claiming the first measure is not being actively considered, despite apparently drafting a white paper exploring the idea, and that the latter is apparently “hypothetical and not being explored with urgency.” Still, as the Times points out, the fact that these things are being floated in the first place is entirely antithetical to Trump’s boasts, most recently on Monday, about the “very strong” economy.

Also on Monday, Gary Wertish, the president of the Minnesota Farmers Union, said that the multibillion-dollar bailouts the government has provided the farming industry “nowhere near cover the loss of income,“ while United States Steel Corp announced it would temporarily lay off hundreds of workers, possibly for more than six months, in its Great Lakes facility in Michigan. Those are the kind of data points that belie the president’s claims that he’s made farming great again and that his tariffs have caused a resurgence in the steel industry, but apparently those flashes of reality are neither here nor there.

As many experts have noted with increasing alarm, a year into his trade war, it’s still not clear exactly what Trump wants from China, or if he’ll ever get it. So whether he rolls off the tariffs now or at some date TBD, it’s very possible the whole thing will have been a giant waste of time, not to mention a waste of consumers’ money.

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