TRUMP’S 3 MOST ACCURATE WORDS – HILLARY’S KEY AD -- JEN PALMIERI: Best day of the campaign – EXIT JEB: ‘tragicomically mismatched to the electorate’ – PUNDITS’ WORST predictions – TOP TWEETS Presented by

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

Good Sunday morning. The GOP’s Palmetto primary and the Dems’ casino caucuses clarify this crazy race: Trump triumphs, Clinton is revived, Bernie loses mo, Marco’s new nickname is 3-5-2 (his finishes so far), Cruz loses evangelicals, Jeb scrams, Kasich sticks around as asterisk in apparent three-man race, and Carson keeps campaigning because why not.

QUOTE OF THE MONTH: Donald Trump on Monday, at his presser near Charleston, when a questioner posited that George W. Bush remains popular in South Carolina: “So am I.”

COVER of The (Columbia) State, "Trump cheers ‘beautiful’ SC win: Primary voters turn their backs on ‘establishment’ candidates" http://bit.ly/1VwFJ01 ... Las Vegas Review-Journal, "Nevada points to Clinton: Democrats defy caucus chaos to side with Clinton, feel the Bern ... Early ground game pays off with boost for former first lady." http://bit.ly/1XFFCAH



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TRUMP wins S.C. by 10 points. ... CLINTON wins Nevada by 5.5 points.

DRUDGE thinks we now know the fall matchup. “ARE YOU READY?” he banners, with pics of Trump and Hillary.

CLINTON ADVISERS say a game-changer in the Nevada race was the 1-min. ad, “Brave,” capturing a moment between Hillary and a little girl at a DREAMers event in Vegas last Sunday. The ad was in heavy rotation for final three days (others were on the air, too). There was also a big digital push behind it that mattered. YouTube http://bit.ly/1QtrbjQ

CHOOSE YOUR NEWS: AP’s overnight Election Rdp: “After South Carolina, GOP race becomes Trump’s to lose” http://apne.ws/1mQ5T1R ... Erick Erickson, “It Becomes Rubio’s Race To Lose” http://bit.ly/1Qthm5s

CAUTION! PUNDITS AT WORK: Frank Foer, former New Republic editor, on Slate 14 DAYS ago, “Jeb Bush may actually have a shot at the Republican nomination” (still that way in the Google, but story now retitled, “The Return of Jeb Bush: Why the goofy, patrician candidate is finally hitting his stride”) http://slate.me/1RUGykk ...

... Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh), Politics Editor at National Journal, 45 mins. before polls closed: “South Carolina feeling a lot like Iowa: Trump fade, Marco mo and maybe Cruz winning?” Maybe! http://bit.ly/1WAopHV

TOP TWEETS: @rorycooper, Eric Cantor alumnus: “GOP, if you oppose Donald Trump, you have to ask yourself if you're doing everything you can/should to stop him. If not, start tonight” ... @MarcACaputo: “Jeb Bush exits the race for president the way he (usually) campaigned -- in a totally classy way” ... @Philip_Elliott: “Ever the professionals, Jeb Bush’s campaign sends around the transcript of the Governor’s exit speech” ... @chucktodd: “Trump said in his victory speech that he wants to wrap this up soon. Has two early chances: beat Cruz in Tx on 3/1, beat Rubio in FL on 3/15” ...

... @davidaxelrod: “From the Dept. of Things I Meant to Say Before, @marcorubio praises @JebBush as ‘greatest governor in the history of Florida’” ... @AlexPappas: “Rubio, who hasn’t won a state yet, giving what sounds like a victory speech” ... @RyanLizza: “Nothing has changed in six months: If not-Trump consolidates, he can be defeated. If not-Trump remains divided, Trump will be the nominee.”

THE NARRATIVE -- AP’s Josh Lederman and Jill Colvin: “Trump, now the clear leader in the delegate race, cemented his standing as his party’s favorite. No Republican in modern times has won New Hampshire and South Carolina and then failed to win the nomination. ... Trump leads Republicans with 61 of the needed 1,237 delegates, while Clinton has 503 to Sanders' 70, including superdelegates.” http://apne.ws/1mQ5T1R

AP LATEST: With 100% of S.C.’s 2,239 precincts reporting, Rubio edges Cruz for second place by 1,091 votes out of 737,917 cast: 1) Trump 239,851 (32.5%) ... 2) Rubio 165,881 (22.5%) ... 3) Cruz 164,790 (22.3%) ... 4) Bush 57,863 (7.8%) ... 5) Kasich 56,206 (7.6%) ... 6) Carson 53,326 (7.2%)

--DEMS: With 95% of Nevada’s caucus sites reporting (81 out of 1,714 missing): Clinton 6,238 votes (52.7%) to Sanders 5,589 (47.2%)

JAKE TAPPER anchored on CNN for 13 hours yesterday, and today has a chockablock “State of the Union”: Hillary (exclusive), Bernie, Trump, Rubio, Cruz.

N.Y. DAILY NEWS cover, “Confederacy of DUNCES: Day after Trump lauds shooting Muslims, South Carolina GOP says, ‘He’s our guy!’” https://bit.ly/21hl4R7

HOW IT’S PLAYING: N.Y. Times 5-col. lead, “TRUMP AND CLINTON ARE VICTORIOUS; BUSH DROPS OUT AS FIELD NARROWS” ... WashPost 2-col. lead, “Clinton, Trump carry the day; Bush drops out: African-American voters in Nevada buoy former secretary of state” ... L.A. Times 2-col. lead, “Nevada win resets race for Clinton: She’s back on the right trajectory headed into the South after a close victory over Sanders.”

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HOW JEB CRASHED – “Inside Jeb Bush’s $150 Million Failure: His closest aides failed to predict Trump and never changed course, guiding a flawed candidate into a corner he couldn’t escape,” by Politico’s Eli Stokols, on the Jeb beat from the beginning, with Glenn Thrush and Alex Isenstadt: “Interviews with more than two dozen Bush insiders, donors and staff illuminate the plight of an earnest and smart candidate who was tragicomically mismatched to the electorate of his own party and an unforgiving, mean media environment that broadcast his flaws. The entire premise of Bush’s candidacy ... was an epic misread of a GOP base hostile to any establishment candidate, especially one with his baggage-weighted last name. ...

“[A]lmost immediately, Trump baited Bush into a fight ... ‘They got defined as “low energy” by a guy who took an escalator to his own announcement.’ ...

“The problem, many donors say they believe, is that there wasn’t anyone on the team who both recognized his shortcomings and was willing to point them out to the principal himself. ‘He did not put an adult as the chairman of the campaign and a lot of the mistakes flow from that,’ said one long-time Bush donor. ‘Reagan put Bill Casey in that position. 41 put Jim Baker. 43 had Don Evans. You always had someone above the campaign manager who could tell people and the candidate what needed to happen, who could see the big picture.’ ... He couldn’t sell experience to an electorate that wanted emotion.” http://politi.co/1Q9477K

--“Statement by President George W. Bush on Governor Jeb Bush ... CRAWFORD, TEXAS – ‘Tonight I talked to my brother and congratulated him on his campaign for the Presidency. I told Jeb how proud I am of him and his staff for running a campaign that looked to the future, presented serious policy proposals, and elevated the tone of the race. Jeb's decision to suspend his campaign reflects his selfless character and patriotism. I was moved by Jeb's concession speech. Laura and I are proud of Jeb and Columba for the character and class they brought to this important campaign.’”

“PLEASE CLAP” ... TODD S. PURDUM, “Requiem for the Bush Dynasty,” on VanityFair.com: “[T]he calamitous slow-motion collapse of a candidate so certain that his resume, Rolodex and fundraising prowess would make him a strong contender ... has ... been stunning to behold. ... In hindsight, there were telltale clues from the start. Bush’s Right to Rise super-PAC raised some $100 million last year—most of it before he even formally declared his candidacy—yet he still couldn’t manage to clear the raucous and splintered Republican field the way his older brother largely did in 1999. ...

“When a planned applause line—‘We’re prepared to act in the national security interest of this country, to get back in the business of creating a more peaceful world’—fell flat, he asked an audience in New Hampshire to ‘please clap.’ His intent was self-deprecation, but the impression he left was of defeat.” http://bit.ly/1Q28i1S

CRUZ STRATEGERY – “Cruz stumbles with evangelical voters: The Texan banked his whole campaign on the South. Now he’s lost Round 1,” by Katie Glueck and Shane Goldmacher in Columbia, S.C.: “A disappointing showing ... calls into question his long-held claim that he is the evangelical standard-bearer: Exit polls showed Trump beating him out for evangelical support. ... Cruz has long said that the Southern-heavy March 1 contests — ... Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama, among others ... — will be an ‘amazing day’ for his campaign.

“He never promised a victory in South Carolina, but ... Cruz has been eyeing the South Carolina primary ever since his days as a junior staffer for George W. Bush in 2000, when he noticed the ‘striking’ similarities between Texas and South Carolina.” http://politi.co/1LAcy6X

RUBIO STRATEGERY -- “How Rubio won over Nikki Haley,” by Shane Goldmacher in Columbia, S.C. and Anna Palmer: “It was over steak and more than three hours of conversation that stretched deep into [last Monday] night that Marco Rubio sealed the endorsement of Gov. Nikki Haley ... Around the table in the informal family dining room — not the official one reserved for state affairs — were Rubio and Haley, their spouses Jeannette and Michael, and four of their top aides, Heath Thompson and Katie Baham Gainey for Rubio and Rob Godfrey and Tim Pearson for Haley.” http://politi.co/1VwDSZa

“CLINTON’S TOLD-YOU-SO VICTORY: Nevada wasn’t the win Hillary Clinton once envisioned, but it signaled that the underlying premise of her campaign remains intact,” by Politico’s Gabe Debenedetti in Columbia, S.C.: “The Clinton theory of the case – that the math simply doesn’t work for Sanders beyond the largely white states of Iowa and New Hampshire – appeared to be validated ... [T]he spotlight turns to South Carolina -- where black voters are expected to cast a majority of the vote in [next Saturday’s] Democratic primary. ... The state is shaping up to be unforgiving terrain for Sanders.” http://politi.co/1OnruVQ

--“How Clinton staved off disaster in Nevada: Putting its money into organizing, not ads, her campaign held off Sanders’ late surge,” by Annie Karni in Vegas: “As modest as her victory margin in Nevada, it was her first clean win of the campaign. After an Iowa race so close that it came down to a coin toss, and the 22-point loss in New Hampshire, the single-digit victory marked a welcome shift in momentum. The campaign was eager to make hay. Communications director Jennifer Palmieri called it the best day of the campaign to date. ...

“Clinton swept the Las Vegas Strip, winning all six casino caucus sites, which tend turn out a highly diverse population of culinary workers. Bill and Hillary Clinton had spent the week feverishly working the back rooms and cafeterias of casinos like Harrah's and Caesar's, furiously hunting for votes.” http://politi.co/1SZtcVr

NEW THIS A.M.: Morgan Freeman, In New Clinton Ad, Declares “She’s Always Stood With Us: “The ad highlights how Clinton has stood up for mothers who lost their sons and daughters to gun violence or while in police custody.” https://bit.ly/1Txuerv

DAILY TRUMP -- “Trump rewrites campaign cash rules,” by Ken Vogel and Isaac Arnsdorf: “The candidates for president and their big-money allies have spent more than $682 million through the end of January ... Trump has reached into his own pocket to loan or donate $17.8 million to his once-quixotic campaign, accounting for most of the $26 million it has brought in, though it continues to accept a trickle of donations that totaled $941,000 in January. He has shelled out $7.6 million on an advertising campaign ... $2.1 million on events and $1.4 million on his now iconic ‘Make America Great Again’ hats, versus $2.4 million on payroll and field organizing.” http://politi.co/1L2Wgbv

SCOOP ... Daniel and Pro Labor reporter Brian Mahoney report: AFL-CIO ENGINEERING NEW SUPER PAC WITH SEIU: The new super PAC will likely include contributions from non-member unions like the 2-million member SEIU. Sources say that the new project will be a topic of conversation at this week’s AFL-CIO winter meeting in San Diego. The super PAC won’t spend any money on the Democratic primary but its likely participants include three heavy-spending unions that have already endorsed Hillary: SEIU, the 1.6 million member American Federation of Teachers, and the 1.6 million member American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

The collaboration would mark an intriguing realignment in the labor movement, particularly for SEIU, which disaffiliated from the AFL-CIO in 2005 to help found a new labor federation, Change to Win. Several major unions that departed for Change to Win, like the United Food and Commercial Workers and LiUNA, have since re-affiliated with the AFL-CIO.

BONUS GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman:

--“Altered Tastes,” by Maria Konnikova in The New Republic: “Can the new science of neurogastronomy -- and one very creative chef -- convince us that healthy food is delicious?” http://bit.ly/213znMx

-- “Sheldon Adelson Bets it All,” by Matt Isaacs in the March/April issue of Mother Jones: “The inside story of the Chinese casino money flooding into our elections.” http://bit.ly/1Tq86z9

--“Bad Blood The Color of Rubies,” by Eric Konigsberg in New York Magazine’s The Cut: “A jewelry feud, set in Jaipur and on Madison Avenue.” http://thecut.io/1QqXIke

--“The Champ and Mr. X,” by James Rosen in National Review, reviewing “Blood Brothers: The Fatal Friendship between Muhammad Ali and Malcolm X,” by Randy Roberts and Johnny Smith: “In all it touches — the far-flung but interconnected worlds of race, religion, politics, sports, cities, organized crime, and the news media — this sober and detailed book, a dual biography that alternates between protagonists like a suspense novel, renders profound service.” http://bit.ly/1oUtxMv ... $19.44 on Amazon http://amzn.to/1ovwsKO

--“Bitter Memories: The Fall of Saigon, April 1975,” by Tom Glenn (who was head of the NSA’s operation in Saigon) in the CIA’s Studies in Intelligence journal: “I listened to anything I could hear to keep track of what was happening. It was April 1975. I was in Saigon waiting for the North Vietnamese to attack.” http://1.usa.gov/1mMKiaC

--“Love -- In Other Words,” by Harper Lee, in the April 15, 1961 issue of Vogue: “Any act of love, however--no matter how small--lessens anxiety’s grip, gives us a taste of tomorrow, and eases the yoke of our fears. Love, unlike virtue, is not its own reward. The reward of love is peace of mind, and peace of mind is the end of man's desiring.” http://bit.ly/1TvamFs (h/t Longform.org)

--“What’s Next for the American Department Store?” by Lauren Sherman in The Business of Fashion: “Changing consumer sentiment and over distribution of product has hit the department store model hard in the challenging US market. Can executives win back the magic through a series of ambitious new year initiatives?” http://bit.ly/1UcKHkj (h/t Longreads.com)

--“Wanted: foreign workers — and the labor brokers accused of illegally profiting from them,” by Reuters’ Megan Twohey, Mica Rosenberg and Ryan McNeill: “Vast numbers of foreign workers come to the United States with the help of labor brokers. These middlemen recruit them for temporary jobs. But Reuters found that brokers also can compound abuses workers face even before entering America.” http://reut.rs/1oQqjcI

BIRTHDAYS: AP’s Mark Smith, who has been at the wire since 1975, except for 5 months at CNN in 1981 ... Whitney Majorsky (h/t Josh) ... Jeremy Gaines, VP of corporate comms. at TEGNA (formerly Gannett Co. Inc.) and a Clinton and MSNBC alum ... David Sherzer (h/ts Watkins, Deckard, Saliterman) ... Paul Teller, chief of staff to Sen. Cruz, an RSC alum and proud Duke grad ... Kevin Sheridan, a Romney-Ryan and RNC alum ... Kristie Greco ... Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) is 76. ... Tricia Nixon Cox is 70 ... former Sen. Olympia J. Snowe (R-Maine) is 69 ... film/music company executive David Geffen is 73 ... Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe is 92 ... Stan Collender, Qorvis’ EVP and national director of financial comms. … Mark Kelly, former astronaut, husband of Gabby Giffords, and co-founder of Americans for Responsible Solutions, and his twin brother Scott, currently on Day 331 orbiting Earth 250 miles above in the International Space Station, where he posts amazing pix every day on his Twitter http://bit.ly/1OleWOB (h/t Hilary) ...

... Ryan Rudominer of R2 Strategic Consulting, a DCCC alum, is 38 ... Reuters’ Ross Colvin … Ashley Etienne, special assistant to the President and cabinet comms. director and a Pelosi alum ... Politico’s Terry Mulcahy and NanHee Kim ... Mitchell Delk, longtime lobbyist and GOP fundraiser ... Karl Frisch, executive director of Allied Progress and a syndicated columnist and political commentator, is 38 ... Beth Viola, senior policy advisor at Holland & Knight who co-chairs the firm’s Energy Team and is a Clinton/Gore alum (h/t Jon Haber) ... Beth Adelson, former press secretary for Sen. Warner ... Paul Raymond of NewsFixed and a McClatchy alum ...

... Rebeccah Propp, director of advance and media events for the Speaker ... Elise Kelly … Stephen Smith, managing director of Purple Digital at Purple Strategies ... Joyce Wolf ... Jeong Lee ... Ivan Villegas … Shawn Reinschmiedt, co-founder and principal at M Street Insight ... Michelle Cordero, managing editor of Heritage.org ... Caitlin, daughter of Fox News field producer Faith Mangan … Bob Chlopack ... Nicole Rowe ... Karen Kapler (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... fashion designer Hubert de Givenchy is 89. ... actress Tyne Daly is 70 ... actress Christine Ebersole is 63 ... Kelsey Grammer is 61 ... Mary Chapin Carpenter is 58 ... Jennifer Love Hewitt is 37 ... singer Charlotte Church is 30 ... actress Ellen Page is 29 ... Sophie Turner is 20 (h/ts AP)

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