
The number of deaths from coronavirus could reach 100,000 in the UK by the end of this year if a gradual lockdown is implemented just to shield the elderly, Professor Neil Ferguson warned yesterday.

The Imperial College epidemiologist said it was impossible to send the young and healthy back to work while keeping the vulnerable in lockdown without seeing a huge increase in deaths.

The academic - whose previous death toll predictions prompted the PM to lock Britain down - warned that no country has successfully shielded those most at risk from the virus while allowing the least vulnerable to continue as normal.

Professor Ferguson said some degree of social isolation will continue to be required until a vaccine to the killer bug is released, which Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab today said was unlikely to happen until 2021.

He was asked if young people could be allowed out of lockdown if the tough measures have suppressed the infection rate enough and the Government has increased NHS capacity to a sufficient degree.

Professor Ferguson told UnHerd: 'In practical terms, you would require a very high level of effective shielding for that to be a viable strategy.

'If you just achieve 80 per cent shielding - and 80 per cent reduction in infection risk in those groups - we still project that you would get more than 100,000 deaths this year from that kind of strategy.

'The most vulnerable people are also the people who most need care and most need interaction with the health system and are least able to be truly isolated.'

The academic had come under fire for suggesting that UK deaths could hit 500,000 prior to the lockdown. He was discussing the method of shielding of the vulnerable yesterday following Swedish epidemiologist Johan Giesecke's criticism of his 500,000 figure.

Bur Professor Ferguson insisted there had been nothing wrong his prediction, saying he'd made it prior to the Government bringing in tough measures and said he never thought that such a lockdown would have been pursued.

His defence came as the University of Washington predicted the number of UK coronavirus deaths could reach more than 60,000 by August even with current isolation rules.

Professor Neil Ferguson warned the number of deaths from coronavirus in the UK could reach 100,000 this year if

The number of deaths from coronavirus in the UK increased by 813 yesterday, the sixth highest daily increase since the pandemic began. The number of infections rose by 4,913

The number of people to have tested positive for coronavirus increased by 4,913 to 148,377, it was revealed at a on Saturday afternoon

He said that the UK could bring in measures similar to South Korea if the rate of infection in Britain can be kept sufficiently low.

The east Asian country has encouraged strict social distancing and asked people to stay at home without imposing a lockdown from central government, though some local governments have imposed stricter measures, including closing bars and nightclubs, banning large demonstrations, and limiting church services.

It comes as Professor Keith Neal of Nottingham University said it has taken too long to decrease the daily number of hospitalised patients from 5,903 on April 5 to 3,583 yesterday.

Professor who prompted lockdown accused of having 'patchy record of modelling pandemics' By Stephen Adams for the Mail on Sunday Experts have cast doubt on the work of a key scientist whose apocalyptic prediction that coronavirus could kill 500,000 Britons led Boris Johnson to decide he had to lock down the country. Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London, authored a report which forecast that terrible death toll if nothing was done to stop the spread of the disease. Even plans to slow the virus – letting around two-thirds of the population catch coronavirus to build up 'herd immunity' – would result in 250,000 deaths, according to Imperial's mathematical model. Prof Ferguson's devastating conclusion led the Prime Minister to perform a drastic U-turn a fortnight ago. Schools were closed and people told to stay at home. Professor Neil Ferguson, a director at Imperial College, London, said that even with control measures 250,000 people could die in the outbreak Last week, Prof Ferguson told MPs these measures could see the eventual death toll cut to 'substantially less' than 20,000. Meanwhile a paper by separate colleagues at Imperial predicted just 5,700 deaths if the lockdown continues. Now a rival academic has claimed Prof Ferguson has a patchy record of modelling epidemics, which could have led to hasty Ministerial decisions. Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University said Prof Ferguson was previously instrumental in modelling that led to the cull of more than 6 million animals during the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, which left rural Britain economically devastated. Then, Prof Ferguson and his Imperial colleagues concluded: 'Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic.' But Prof Thrusfield, an expert in animal diseases, claimed the model made incorrect assumptions about how foot and mouth disease was transmitted and, in a 2006 review, he claimed Imperial's foot and mouth model was 'not fit for purpose', while in 2011 he said it was 'severely flawed'. Prof Thrusfield told The Daily Telegraph the episode was 'a cautionary tale' about the limits of mathematical modelling and he felt a sense of 'déjà vu' about the current situation. But Prof Ferguson defended Imperial's foot and mouth work, saying they were doing 'modelling in real time' with 'limited data'. He added: 'I think the broad conclusions reached were still valid.' His estimate that coronavirus deaths could be 'substantially less' than 20,000 was based on 'the presence of the very intense social distancing and other interventions now in place'. Without such controls, his team still believed Britain could see 500,000 deaths. Last night, NHS England medical director Professor Steven Powis warned: 'If we can keep deaths below 20,000 we will have done very well… Now is not the time to be complacent.' Advertisement

The rate of decline here has lagged behind other countries in Europe when compared to each nations' peak of infections date.

Meanwhile Tory donors, Cabinet ministers and Sir Keir Starmer have all told Boris Johnson he must publish his strategy for loosening restrictions - with the shielding approach among the options suggested - as the Prime Minister prepares to return to work tomorrow.

But Mr Raab slapped down those calls this morning as he said Britain is still at a 'delicate and dangerous' stage of the outbreak and the focus must remain on slowing the spread of the disease and reducing the number of deaths.

However, the Foreign Secretary, who has been standing in for Mr Johnson, did insist ministers are carrying out their 'homework' on how to lift rules in the future but he stressed 'frankly it is not responsible to start speculating about the individual measures'.

Professor Ferguson insisted lockdown measures are working, but stressed the UK must be careful about how it exits.

His warning comes as new data predicts the number of UK coronavirus deaths could reach more than 60,000 under current isolation rules.

Fresh analysis from Seattle's University of Washington has predicted that the number of coronavirus deaths in Britain - currently 20,319 - could reach 37,494 by August 4.

However, the total number of deaths could go as high as 62,500 by that date, according to the university's Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The institute, which received $279million (£226million) in funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation earlier this year, released its latest forecast this morning.

The data predicts that the 'upper uncertainty bound of cumulative covid deaths', showing the worst possible case scenario in terms of death numbers, will reach 61,1120 as early as May 8.

IHME, which received $279million (£226million) in funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation earlier this year, released its latest forecast on April 22.

In a paper released on April 21, it said: 'Planners need forecasts of the most likely trajectory in the coming weeks and will want to plan for the higher values in the range of those forecasts.'

The study used data on confirmed coronavirus death by day from local and national government websites in the US and Europe, as well as the World Health Organisation.

In other coronavirus news:

Ministers were planning to put all travellers from abroad, including returning UK citizens, in quarantine for a fortnight

Tory 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady warned Mr Johnson that prolonging the lockdown 'for longer than necessary would have its own toll of mass unemployment, business failure and catastrophic deterioration of the public finances', while Tory donor and City grandee Michael Spencer called for the Government to provide a blueprint for easing the measures, with a friend saying 'it should not continue a day longer than necessary'

Chancellor Rishi Sunak set out options for exiting the lockdown during a three-hour summit at Mr Johnson's Chequers country retreat and championed the Czech Republic's five -stage plan to lift all domestic restrictions by June 8

A Cabinet Minister told this newspaper that it was untrue that Mr Johnson's illness had made him reluctant to lift the social distancing measures

Former Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers called on the Government to open garden centres immediately – a view backed by a new opinion poll

Tory MPs warned teachers' unions not to block pupils' early return to the classroom

Home Secretary Priti Patel warned that 'we are not out of the woods yet' and urged the public to continue to follow social distancing rules – while vowing to tackle 'the most sophisticated' criminals who are seeking to 'exploit and capitalise' on the pandemic

An investigation by this newspaper established that wealthy tycoons living in the tax haven of Monaco are using British taxpayers' cash to pay the wages of the staff in their UK companies

Police said there had been 53 attacks on 5G masts amid conspiracy theories falsely linking them to the virus – including a mast serving Birmingham's new Nightingale Hospital

There was renewed controversy over the low number of patients being treated in Nightingale Hospitals

The global death toll exceeded 200,000

The UK has taken three weeks to reduce the daily coronavirus cases by around a third in a 'disappointingly' slow decline, an infectious disease expert has said.

Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia said one of the reasons for this could be due to greater access to personal protective equipment abroad.

Leading British scientists have poured cold water on hopes of ending the lockdown, warning the cases figure first needs to be in the hundreds, not thousands.

The UK yesterday passed the 20,000-death milestone in the coronavirus outbreak as a further 813 deaths took the official total toll to 20,319, while cases hit 148,377.

Dominic Raab today blasted 'irresponsible' critics for demanding the UK government set out how it will ease the nation's coronavirus lockdown.

England continues to lead the UK for the percentage of critical care beds that are being used for coronavirus patients

Apply mobility trends data for the UK. The number of requests for directions involving walking, driving or public transport shows signs of increasing after decreasing over the past month and a half

The number of people in hospital with coronavirus has fallen over the last 24 hours across the country

Transport use in the country has started to creep up amid sunnier weather and people getting restless from being shut in their homes for a fifth straight week

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab (pictured, right, on Sophy Ridge today) previously said that a vaccine was unlikely to come into play until later this year, but has now said it's unlikely to be created in 2020 at all. Left, Labour leader Keir Starmer demands clarity from the Government on the next stages of lockdown

Mr Johnson has been recuperating at Chequers since he was released from hospital on April 12 after his own intensive care battle with coronavirus but he has told allies he is now 'raring to go'.

The PM will formally return to the frontline amid growing hostility over the government's repeated refusal to publicly discuss how restrictions will be lifted.

Professor Ferguson's warning comes as Tory donors and MPs called on the Government to be clear about an exit strategy, with Dominic Raab and Priti Patel insisting that it is not time to end the tough measures.

The academic has already rowed back from a prediction that 500,000 people in the UK could die of Covid-19 after the apocalyptic projection influenced Boris Johnson's decision to urge Britons to stay at home. Professor Ferguson told MPs these measures could see the eventual death toll cut to 'substantially less' than 20,000.

Why IS it taking so long for deaths and infections to come down? New cases decline by just a third in three weeks as experts warn it must be at a few hundred before we can consider lifting lock-down

The UK has taken three weeks to reduce daily coronavirus cases by around a third in a 'disappointingly' slow decline that may be due to 'inadequate access to personal protective equipment'.

The daily number of infections has fallen from 5,903 at its peak on April 5 to 4,913 yesterday. This rate of decline lags behind other countries in Europe when compared to statistics since each nations' peak of infections.

Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia said one of the reasons could be due to greater access to personal protective equipment abroad.

It comes as leading British scientists poured cold water on hopes of ending the lockdown, warning the cases figure first needs to be in the hundreds, not thousands.

The UK yesterday passed the 20,000-death milestone in the outbreak as a further 813 deaths took the official total toll to 20,319, while cases hit 148,377.

The number of people to have tested positive for the deadly bug surged by 4,913 to 148,377, it was revealed on Saturday afternoon

Prof Hunter from Norwich School of Medicine at UEA told MailOnline: 'If you look at most of the other countries, not all, but certainly most are showing a much steeper decline than we are. We are definitely seeing a slower impact than most of our European neighbours.'

The academic said it was not immediately clear why other countries' declines were steeper than ours, but said he had some theories.

He said: 'I suspect that some of this is around issues potentially around inadequate PPE for health service and care workers.'

Dominic Raab admits coronavirus vaccine is 'unlikely to come this year' despite human trials starting this week Dominic Raab says that a coronavirus vaccine is 'unlikely to come this year' as human trials start this week. The Foreign Secretary told Sophy Ridge on Sky this morning that a vaccine probably won't be available in 2020, despite previously saying it was 'unlikely to come into play' until later this year. It comes as Oxford scientists developed accurate antibody kits that work in 20 minutes, announcing they could be producing one million of the tests a week by June. But Mr Raab said despite the progress in testing, a vaccine could continue to elude countries fighting the pandemic. He said: 'The antibody test is important because it can tell whether you had the virus, there is also the swab test which says if you currently have the virus. 'We are looking at all of these measures to manage and try and bring an end to the coronavirus. 'We are also looking at the possibility of a vaccine, that's not likely to come to fruition this year, which could be very important if we get multiple waves of coronavirus globally down the track.' Advertisement

He added: 'It would not surprise me if some of this number of deaths was driven largely because of the spread not necessarily in the general population but in the elderly and vulnerable and that would be related to inadequate infection prevention.'

Germany, which has been hailed as a pillar on how to deal with the virus, had a similar cases figure to Britain at its peak on April 5 at 5,936.

But the number has plummeted in the same three-week period, sitting on 2,055 cases as of yesterday.

Germany has also seen a comparably low daily death figure throughout the crisis, with yesterday's 179 new fatalities being a fraction of the UK's 813.

Foreign minister Andreas Michaelis said his government's decision to hold excess capacity in ICUs has been one of the main reasons for the low death rate.

Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, he said the country had 40,000 intensive care beds, 30,000 of which can be used with ventilators. This is really a heritage of our health system - it is almost the core factor of our health system.

'A lot of experts were criticising us for having too much capacity, too much expenditure - I think the people of Germany can now say that's an extra capacity they are very happy to have financed in the past.'

Germany, which went into lockdown on March 22, has started reopening shops and allowing people on public transport, but Chancellor Angela Merkel warned 'we can't return to life like it was before'.

Nations around the world have been taking different paths on when to reopen their economies after weeks at a standstill under coronavirus lockdowns.

The number of deaths officially attributed to coronavirus has topped 200,000 globally and at least 2.9million people have been infected.

Those figures are widely believed to understate the true toll of the pandemic due to limited testing, problems in counting the dead and some governments' moves to underplay their outbreaks.

This weekend, Britons were seen basking in the unseasonably warm weather, while the level of traffic on the roads also began to steadily creep upwards (Bournemouth pictured)

Even some of the Continent's worst-affected nations have seen a steeper decline in coronavirus cases since their peak than the UK. Italy, which has lost a staggering 26,384 people to the killer bug, yesterday recorded just 3,021 new cases.

In the three weeks from its peak number of daily infections on March 21, the figure fell from 6,557 to 3,951 on April 10. It marked a much steeper decline in cases per day than Britain in the three weeks following its peak.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is expected to announce more details easing the lockdown - which was imposed on March 9 - in the coming days.

Mr Conte told La Repubblica priorities would include restarting construction and export industries so businesses would not 'risk being cut out' of markets. He also confirmed school classes would not begin until September.

Italy, Spain and France, which have Europe's highest overall death tolls from the virus, all imposed tough lockdown rules in March.

All have reported significant progress in bringing down infection rates and are ready, warily, to start giving their citizens more freedom.

Spain has the second-highest number of confirmed infections - behind the United States - but had seen a marked drop in the three weeks following its peak. Infections rocketed to more than 9,000 on April 2, but by April 23 this had fallen dramatically to fewer than 5,000.

So far, Spanish adults were allowed out only for essential shopping or to go to work that cannot be done from home.

A police officer tells members of the public that they are not allowed to sit and enjoy the sunshine on the grass, but are allowed to walk to take exercise, in London Fields park in east London

Children under 14 have been in complete seclusion, but as of Sunday they were allowed to take walks with one parent for up an hour.

They must be within one kilometre of their homes, take only one toy with them and are not allowed to play with other children. Authorities recommend parents and children wash their hands before and after outings.

PM Pedro Sanchez will present a detailed plan Tuesday for the 'de-escalation' of the lockdown for the coming weeks.

Experts have lined up behind Professor John Edmunds, who sits on the government's scientific advisory group, Sage, to not jump the gun on lifting the social distancing

Tacking to a containment strategy based on rigorous testing and contact tracing is widely touted as the route to easing restrictions.

But the UK's track-and-trace infrastructure would crumble under the load of daily cases at their current levels, experts say.

Professor Hunter said: 'Certainly [the number of cases] is far too high to consider lifting lockdown restrictions at present.

'We need to get numbers down to a few hundred new cases a day before we can do that. Such a decline could take months.'

His comments were echoed by Professor John Edmunds, who sits on the government's advisory group Sage, as he said social distancing should not be lifted too early.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine professor said this influx of daily cases would stretch contact tracing capacity to breaking point. He said: 'If we lifted the lockdown now, the testing and tracing system would be overwhelmed.

'We will have to get case numbers down a lot lower than they are now before we can think of lifting current regulations.'

Ministers have doubled down their calls for people to stay indoors amid signs swathes of the public are growing restless with life under lockdown.

This weekend, Britons were seen basking in the unseasonably warm weather, while the level of traffic on the roads also began to steadily creep upwards.

Pressure is growing on the government to publish a blueprint out of lockdown, in step with Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon who promised to treat her electorate 'like grown ups' when she sketched out a plan to phase out curbs.

Professor Hunter also said the true number of cases could be double the official figure. He said: 'The World Health Organisation said yesterday that about half of all deaths in Europe are occurring in residence of elderly care homes.

The Home Secretary (pictured yesterday) urged the public to 'stay strong' and observe social distancing

'We know for a fact the figures reported every day are an underestimate, possibly a significant underestimate of the total number of deaths.'

He added the UK is well on track to hit 30,000 deaths in hospital, perhaps even 40,000 before the pandemic is brought under control.

In a bleak prediction, Prof Hunter continued: 'We are undoubtedly going to have one of the highest death rates in Europe.'

Countries across the world are also starting to reveal their plans to relax tough distancing measures. But ministers in Westminster continue to deflect calls for an exit strategy and stick to hammering their core message to obey the guidance.

At yesterday's Downing Street press briefing, Home Secretary Priti Patel urged the public to 'stay strong' and observe social distancing.

Professor Stephen Powis, the medical director of NHS England who flanked the Home Secretary, insisted the social distancing measures were having an effect. However, he emphasised the difficulties in dealing with a new virus which had created a 'once-in-a-century global health crisis'.

He said: 'This was going to be a huge challenge not just for the UK, but for every country. Even in countries that have got on top of this early on, we are unfortunately beginning to see new infections.

'So I think the first thing to emphasise is that this unfortunately is not going to be something we will begin to get over in the next few weeks. This is something we are going to have to continue working our way through over the months ahead - as I have said before this is not a sprint, this will be a marathon.'