By Cole Manbeck

There’s a lot of information to digest in the following blog, so let’s get right to it. The biggest game of the Big 12 season, to date, occurs Saturday night when No. 9 Kansas State travels to No. 7 TCU. And spoiler alert: it’s a game I believe the Wildcats win.

Turnovers

There are so many intriguing dynamics to this game, starting with TCU’s ability to force turnovers against K-State’s ability to protect the football. TCU’s defense has forced 26 turnovers this season, an average of 3.3 per game, which is the best in the country. TCU leads the country in turnover margin with a plus-15 advantage. The Horned Frogs have capitalized on their opponents’ mistakes, scoring 101 points off turnovers, more than any power-five team in the country.

TCU has intercepted two passes in each of its five Big 12 games. K-State’s Jake Waters hasn’t thrown an interception in five conference games. The Wildcats have only turned the ball over seven times all season. Only six teams in the country have fewer turnovers. K-State is No. 24 in the country with a plus-six turnover margin. If K-State can win the turnover battle, or just stay even, then I think it comes out victorious. But that’s obviously easier said than done.

Comparing the Offenses and Defenses

TCU looks completely different on offense this season under new co-offensive coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie. The Horned Frogs average 82 offensive plays per game this season, compared to just 70 plays were game in 2013. The Horned Frogs are a big-play offense. TCU averages 550 yards per game, ranking No. 3 in the country, and are No. 2 nationally with 48 points per game. However, I urge you to ignore those statistics. It’s impressive, but the numbers to focus on are yards per play and points per play. TCU averages 6.7 yards per play, ranking No. 8 nationally, and it averages 0.587 points per play against FBS opponents, the second-best mark in the country.

Here’s why we focus on the above statistics: K-State averages 38.3 points per game, ranking No. 15 nationally, and it averages 424 yards per game, ranking No. 56 nationally. But the Wildcats only average 69 plays per game against FBS competition. Only 21 teams run fewer plays on average. K-State averages 6 yards per offensive play, ranking No. 33 nationally. If the Wildcats were to run the 82 plays per game TCU does, then it would average out to 502 yards per contest, only 48 yards less than TCU on a per-game basis. K-State also averages 0.52 points per offensive play, which is the 15th-best mark in the country. If the Wildcats ran 82 plays a game, its offense would average out scoring nearly 43 points per game, only 5 points less than TCU. So yes, TCU’s offense is still better statistically, but it’s not a huge gap when you take a closer look at the numbers.

TCU’s Offense this Season (I have bolded the categories where TCU is statistically better than K-State, and did the same for the Wildcats on the charts below)

Category Stat National Rank Yards per offensive play 6.7 No. 8 Yards per rush 5.5 No. 21 Yards per completion 13.7 No. 24 Yards per passing attempt 7.8 No. 37 Points per offensive play 0.587 No. 2 Red-zone offense 87.8% No. 33 Third-down offense 41.5% No. 56 Sacks allowed 1.63 per game No. 34 Passing efficiency 143.1 No. 34 Offensive plays per game 81.7 15th-most nationally Passing yards per game 336 No. 6 Rushing yards per game 214 No. 31 Total offense 550 ypg No. 3 Scoring offense 48 ppg No. 2 Completion percentage 57% No. 78 Turnovers 11 29th-fewest nationally

K-State’s Offense this Season

Category Stat National Rank Yards per offensive play 6.0 No. 33 Yards per rush 4.4 No. 62 Yards per completion 13.3 No. 30 Yards per passing attempt 8.6 No. 19 Points per offensive play 0.52 No. 15 Red-zone offense 92.9% No. 6 Third-down offense 49.5% No. 9 Sacks allowed 2 per game No. 57 Passing efficiency 149.58 No. 22 Offensive plays per game 69.1 104th-most nationally Passing yards per game 251.4 No. 49 Rushing yards per game 172.8 No. 56 Total offense 424 ypg No. 56 Scoring offense 38.3 ppg No. 15 Completion percentage 64.3% No. 20 Turnovers 7 7th-fewest nationally

K-State has its fair share of advantages as well when comparing the two offenses. TCU averages 7.8 yards per passing attempt, ranking 37th nationally. K-State averages 8.6 yards per attempt, ranking No. 19. The Wildcats are completing 64.3 percent of their passes, the 20th-best mark in the country. TCU is only completing 57 percent of its passes, ranking No. 78 nationally. In Big 12 play, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin has completed just 52.3 percent of his passes (just 0.1 percent off from being the worst out of all the starting quarterbacks in Big 12 games). The Horned Frogs rank 34th in the country in passing efficiency offense, while K-State ranks No. 22 nationally.

So while the TCU passing attack is strong, it’s not as efficient as K-State’s. The Horned Frogs rely more on the big play through the air. They average 13.7 yards per completion. TCU has three dynamic receivers. Kolby Listenbee has 541 yards receiving and averages a remarkable 22.5 yards per catch, while Josh Doctson has 602 yards receiving and 15.8 yards per reception. Deante Gray rounds out the group with 29 receptions for 486 yards, an average of 16.8 yards per catch. Needless to say, this is a very good trio of receivers the Wildcats are going up against. Gray and Listenbee were track stars in high school. They’re sprinters, and one misstep or a bad angle and you won’t catch them.

However, K-State’s defensive scheme is designed to avoid getting burnt deep. It has happened on occasion, but the Wildcats do a decent job of keeping everything in front of them. While that can be frustrating to watch at times, it could prove beneficial this Saturday. They will force Boykin to be patient in the passing game. But will the junior quarterback take what the defense gives him? I think there’s a decent chance the Wildcats could intercept Boykin a couple of times in this game if he tries to force the issue downfield. That being said, West Virginia did the opposite last Saturday. The Mountaineers elected to bring pressure, often blitzing Boykin with six defenders. West Virginia played press coverage, taking away the short passes and forcing Boykin to go deep. The result was a season-worst 12-for-30 passing day for 166 yards for TCU. I don’t see the Wildcats emulating what West Virginia did, because that’s not their style on defense, but it’s another option to consider.

One of the biggest keys for K-State will be taking away the running game. The Wildcats hold opponents to 3.1 yards per rush, ranking No. 8 nationally. K-State is very strong upfront. TCU is averaging 5.5 yards per rush attempt, ranking No. 2 in the Big 12 and No. 21 nationally. However, starting running back B.J. Catalon, the Horned Frogs leading rusher, is questionable due to an injury suffered at West Virginia last Saturday. It would be big for K-State if he cannot give it a go. In my opinion, K-State’s ability to take away the run could be the key to this game above all else. If the Wildcats can make TCU one-dimensional by limiting the running game, I like their chances. Keep in mind, Boykin is a significant threat in the quarterback-run game.

On the offensive side of the ball, K-State’s offensive line will face a difficult defense, but the Wildcats’ pass protection has been very good over the past few weeks. TCU averages eight tackles for loss per game, the fifth-most nationally. The Horned Frogs average three sacks per game, ranking No. 18 in the country (that number is inflated as they recorded nine sacks against SMU in September).

Waters and the Wildcats receivers will face a difficult secondary. Opponents are completing just 48 percent of their passes against TCU, which is the fourth-best completion percentage defense in the country. However, at the very beginning of this blog, I mentioned TCU leading the country in turnovers. This is a very aggressive defense that often looks to make a big play, and this can make them susceptible to double moves. The Horned Frogs are allowing 15.2 yards per completion. That’s the worst mark amongst all power-five teams, and only two teams in the entire FBS are allowing more yards per catch than TCU. Oklahoma averaged 22 yards per catch against the Horned Frogs, while Baylor averaged more than 18 yards per reception against them. Look for K-State to utilize some slant-and-go routes (sluggo) as well as post-corner and hook-and-go patterns.

K-State will need to establish a running game to slow down TCU’s pass rush and give routes like the ones I listed above time to develop. That won’t be easy. The Horned Frogs are giving up just 3.4 yards per rush to FBS opponents, ranking No. 23 nationally.

TCU Defense this Season

Category Stat National Rank Yards per offensive play allowed 5.0 No. 38 Points per play allowed 0.29 No. 27 Passing efficiency defense 109.84 No. 23 Yards per passing attempt 7.3 No. 78 Yards per completion allowed 15.2 No. 126 Yards per rush allowed 3.4 No. 23 Opponent completion percentage 48% No. 4 Turnovers forced 26 No. 1 Total defense 370 ypg No. 48 Scoring defense 22.6 No. 40 Passing yards allowed per game 230 No. 68 Red-zone defense 86.4% No. 90 Third-down defense 28% No. 6 Rushing yards per game allowed 140.1 No. 42 Sacks per game 3.0 No. 18 Tackles for loss per game 8.0 No. 5

K-State Defense this Season

Category Stat National Rank Yards per offensive play allowed 4.8 No. 29 Points per play allowed 0.28 No. 20 Passing efficiency defense 125.22 No. 61 Yards per passing attempt 6.8 No. 45 Yards per completion allowed 11.2 No. 35 Yards per rush allowed 3.1 No. 8 Opponent completion percentage 60.6 No. 85 Turnovers forced 13 No. 66 Total defense 321 ypg No. 16 Scoring defense 18.6 ppg No. 12 Passing yards allowed per game 220 No. 51 Red-zone defense 71.4% No. 11 Third-down defense 39% No. 67 Rushing yards per game allowed 101 No. 9 Sacks per game 1.63 No. 93 Tackles for loss per game 5.5 No. 81

Special Teams Matchup

Big games like this often come down to special teams and who makes the least mistakes. TCU isn’t great on special teams, although placekicker Jake Oberkrom is a very good kicker and has a strong leg. TCU’s biggest strength is its punter, Ethan Perry. Perry has punted the ball 42 times this season. There have only been five returns attempted on his punts. TCU has allowed 1 yard – yes, 1 yard total on the season on punt returns. So Tyler Lockett might not have an opportunity Saturday night when it comes to that facet of the game.

TCU Special Teams Stats

Category Stat National Rank Punt return defense 1 yard per return No. 2 Punt return offense 8 yards per return No. 62 Kick return defense 19.8 yards per return No. 46 Kick return offense 19.6 yards per return No. 84 Net punting 37.71 net No. 59

K-State Special Teams Stats

Category Stat National Rank Punt return defense 15.2 per return No. 121 Punt return offense 18.4 yards per return No. 4 Kick return defense 15.6 yards per return No. 3 Kick return offense 23.2 yards per return No. 28 Net punting 33.9 net No. 113

Conclusion:

I like K-State to win this game because I think the Wildcats will make fewer mistakes than TCU. K-State has the fewest penalty yards in the country with 27.8 per game. TCU is No. 102 in the country with 66 penalty yards per game.

TCU Miscellaneous Stats

Category Stat National Rank Penalties per game 7.1 No. 98 Penalty yards per game 66 No. 102 Turnover Margin Plus 15 No. 1

K-State Miscellaneous Stats

Category Stat National Rank Penalties per game 3.4 No. 3 Penalty yards per game 27.8 No. 1 Turnover Margin Plus 6 No. 24

TCU forces a ton of turnovers, but I think K-State protects the football and the Wildcats get the Horned Frogs at a pace of play they’re uncomfortable with, limiting their offensive possessions and the number of plays they’re used to running. Third-down offense against third-down defense will be pivotal. K-State converts 49.5 percent of its third-down attempts, which ranks No. 9 nationally, while TCU’s defense only gives up a first down on 28 percent of its third-down attempts, the sixth-best mark in the country. I like the Wildcats to possess the football, slow the game down, limit mistakes, and force a couple of TCU turnovers. If that occurs, I think K-State comes out victorious, 35-31.

Category: Blog, K-State Sports