Margaret Hodge raises doubts on whether massive weapons spending has been approved by National Audit Office

This article is more than 7 years old

This article is more than 7 years old

The Ministry of Defence has revealed how it intends to spend £160bn over the next decade on new weapons systems, including a fleet of Trident nuclear missile submarines, two large aircraft carriers, helicopters, armoured vehicles, and unmanned drones.

The MoD says the money has been signed off by the chancellor, George Osborne, even though parliament will not vote until after the general election on whether to give the go-ahead to a new Trident fleet which, it is estimated, would consume at least a third of the MoD's equipment budget after 2020.

Though the MoD suggests that the independent National Audit Office has given its blessing to the huge 10-year weapons procurement programme, it has has emerged that this is far from the case. In a statement released on Thursday Margaret Hodge, chair of the Commons public accounts committee, which receives NAO reports, casts serious doubt on the MoD's confidence that its weapons programme was "fully funded".

Hodge notes that between 2000 and 2012 the cost of Britain's largest weapons projects ballooned by £11bn and independent analysis had found that final project costs were typically 40% higher than the ministry's initial forecasts. She said: "Given this past performance, I am dismayed that the ministry is still taking an over-optimistic view to putting a price on risk and uncertainty. The ministry's own internal review warned that this plan understates costs by as much as £12.5bn."

Hodge said that if that proved to be the case, the entire £8bn now set aside as a contingency but viewed by defence chiefs as essential, would be immediately spent.

The MoD argues that it has made room for contingencies allowing for "cost variations". Its report says:

• £35.8bn will be spent on submarines, including seven Astute class attack submarines and a new fleet of Vanguard nuclear ballistic missile submarines.

• £18.5bn will be spent on aircraft, including US Joint Strike Fighters due to land on two large carriers being built for the navy, Typhoon jets, and unmanned drones.

• £17.4bn will be spent on ships, including the two Queen Elizabeth Class carriers, six new Type 45 destroyers, and the development of a Type 26 "global combat ship".

• £13.9bn will be allocated to a fleet of air-to-air refuelling aircraft, and transport planes, including ,the European A400M.

• £12.3bn will be spent on armoured fighting vehicles, including Warrior, Scout and other equipment for the army.

• £12.1bn will go on helicopters, including the Chinook, Apache, Puma and Wildcat.

• £11.4bn will be spent on weapons, including missiles, torpedoes, and guided bombs.

The NAO says in a report on Thursday that the MoD had taken "significant positive steps" to deal with the black hole in the defence budget, estimated at £74bn, which was left by the Labour administration.

However, it warned that the MoD's plan would "inevitably change over time as economic and operational priorities evolve and as short-term affordability or urgent requirements cause the department to flex its plans".

It added: "For this reason, this report does not, and future reports will not, offer a definitive view on the affordability of the equipment plan. Our analysis shows that [MoD] funding is highly sensitive to changes ... with a 1% decrease in the funding settlement equating to an approximate £4.4bn fall in cash terms."

The defence secretary, Philip Hammond, said: "It is essential that our forces are fully equipped to respond to the range of threats we face in this uncertain world. This £160bn equipment plan will ensure the UK's armed forces remain among the most capable and best equipped in the world ... For the first time in a generation the armed forces will have a sustainable equipment plan."

The chief of the defence staff, General Sir David Richards, said: "The clarity provided by the equipment plan builds on the confidence in the budget and shows that Future Force 2020 is affordable and achievable."

Senior British officials said no fresh defence cuts would be accepted by the Conservatives in a new post-election spending review covering the years 2015 and 2016.