Caltrain moving forward with plan for BART-like service that could ease Peninsula traffic

SAN CARLOS — Caltrain will move forward with a plan to transform the commuter railroad over the next two decades by providing far more frequent service.

The vision Caltrain leaders have laid out, which the agency’s board voted to adopt at a meeting Thursday, calls for offering as many as eight trains per hour in each direction between San Jose and San Francisco. Express “Baby Bullet” trains would run every 15 minutes, and the railroad would have more frequent service farther south to Gilroy.

Supporters say the plan has the potential to ease traffic on Peninsula freeways that have been jammed by commuters as the Bay Area’s economy booms. But it’s not yet clear how the ambitious proposal would be funded.

Caltrain says the increased frequency would nearly triple its daily ridership, from about 65,000 passengers per day today to 180,000 by 2040. Today’s Caltrain ridership is already more than twice what it was 15 years ago.

With trains running so often, the plan would shift the railroad’s identity from a relatively infrequent service that passengers plan their schedules around to a “show-up and go” system more like BART.

Such a change would not come cheap — Caltrain estimates its annual operating costs would increase from $135 million in 2018 to $370 million in 2040. Most of the increase would be covered by the additional fare revenue Caltrain would receive, according to the agency’s estimates, but it would need $66 million more per year from other revenue sources and subsidies than it receives now.

Caltrain’s plan also calls for making infrastructure upgrades, such as a new signal system and expanded stations, which would add to the price tag.

One option to pay for it would be for Caltrain to seek funding through the upcoming “mega measure” known as Faster Bay Area — a one-cent sales tax across the region that would raise $100 billion over four decades to fund transportation projects, which advocates plan to put on the November 2020 ballot. Another would be for Caltrain to put its own sales tax before voters in San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties.

A spokesman for the agency said officials have not yet determined how they will pay for the plan.

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