WASHINGTON, DC—So, the Iowa caucuses. What the heck was that?

After a year of hype for the contest that kicks off the U.S. presidential primary season, the big reveal Monday was, to use a polite term, an omnishambles. Problems with the app that was supposed to revolutionize reporting of the quaint, complicated caucus system instead meant there were no results to report at all on caucus night.

A day later, as the Iowa Democratic Party finally revealed some of the results Tuesday afternoon, it’s possible to start to form a picture of who won and who lost — though it’s important to note these are only 62 per cent of the precincts and the remainder could certainly change the picture. The official partial results in the Democratic nomination contest, by percentage of the delegates: Pete Buttigieg 27, Bernie Sanders 25, Elizabeth Warren 18, Joe Biden 16, Amy Klobuchar 13.

The thing to understand is that the 41 pledged convention delegates actually at stake in the Iowa caucuses aren’t the real measure of victory — they are a tiny drop in an ocean of 4,750 delegates who will choose the eventual nominee. The caucuses are so influential because they’re tea leaves to read about what’s about to happen in the rest of the race. They give everyone a first look at how real voters are reacting to candidates, which shapes the race to come in the minds of voters in the following states and donors who are essential to keeping the campaigns running. Here’s a look at who won, who lost and who to watch after Iowa.

WINNERS

Pete Buttigieg: Some people thought he was overplaying his hand in his triumphant speech before any results were known, but being ahead in these early returns backs up his big talk. As a self-proclaimed moderate, he’s in a contest with Joe Biden (and to a lesser extent Amy Klobuchar) to be the anti-Bernie. But after a media-darling period last year followed by a backlash, he might have fallen out of contention with a weak showing in Iowa. First place — or even second, if the remainder of votes should shift things — make him a key part of the conversation again.

Donald Trump: Not just because he gets to crow about how his Democratic opponents are in a shambles. And certainly not because he overwhelmingly won the Republican caucus. The real victory for Trump is that Democratic caucus turnout was reportedly “on pace” to be about the same as in 2016 — far short of the record 2008 turnout. With an electorate deeply and nearly evenly divided on Trump, 2020 is an election where whoever gets their voters to the polls may be the winner. The first chance Democrats had to register disapproval of Trump didn’t demonstrate an historically motivated support base.

Bernie Sanders: It was expected that he’d do well in Iowa based on polling in recent weeks, but vying for the lead in delegates and outright winning the early raw vote totals cements his place as a front-runner — possibly the front-runner — in the race for the nomination. Especially since he’s thought to be a likely winner of the New Hampshire primary in one week.

New Hampshire primary voters: Their vote next week takes on added significance in shaping what has been a very uncertain race.

LOSERS

Joe Biden: When you’ve led polls since before you even announced your candidacy, and the main argument you offer in favour of voting for you is that people will elect you, a likely fourth-place finish in this first actual contest isn’t encouraging. Biden’s supporters have long predicted his real strength comes later, especially in South Carolina, but voters in those states base their decisions in part on viability demonstrated in the early, smaller states. A candidate who seemed to be inevitable (like Hillary Clinton in 2008) suddenly seems imminently evitable.

Iowa caucus organizers: The state’s influence as the first in the nation to weigh in on potential presidents was already under fire because of its small size and the overwhelmingly pale complexion of its voters. The foul-up reporting the results adds an aura of incompetence to proceedings on a night meant to showcase the party’s hopes of leading the country. The problems make it more likely that Democrats will shake up the order of primary and caucus season soon.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Elizabeth Warren: The cliché says there are three tickets out of Iowa. There may be more than that in a divided contest like this one, but a third-place finish ahead of Biden keeps her alive as a progressive alternative to Sanders.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Mike Bloomberg: His decision to sit out Iowa and focus on later, larger states was predicated on Biden not running away with the nomination before then. In the midst of Iowa’s confusion, he announced he’s doubling his advertising budget.

Amy Klobuchar: She needed to break through in Iowa. Is 13 per cent and fifth place a breakthrough? She’s saying she “punched above her weight” and is fighting on, and her popular raw vote was within 1,000 votes of Biden’s.

Read more about: