SCOTT BIHR

SBIHR@NEWS-PRESS.COM

A lot has been made of recent polls showing Amendment 2 drifting below the 60 percent needed for passage in November. Maybe, a little too much.

No question, the medical marijuana ballot initiative has a fight on its hands. But a larger problem between now and November is the expectation game.

You can trace the issue to a Quinnipiac poll taken this summer that found Amendment 2 riding a stratospheric 88 percent wave of support. The poll gained a lot of traction in the media, professional and social, leading to the conclusion that Amendment 2 was a cinch to pass.

In reality, support was never that high and the poll has all the earmarks of an outlier. But the bar had been set, and too high at that.

So it was inevitable that once additional polls found more modest support, the narrative would claim the amendment was sliding toward possible defeat.

Fast-forward to today. Even though Amendment 2 is collectively below the 60 percent needed to become law, it's still in decent shape when you consider the large bloc of undecided voters and the margin of error.

Here's where it stands: Of the six polls conducted in September, 57.1 percent favor the measure, 29.9 percent oppose and a sizable 12.8 are undecided.

Assuming that the polls, taken together, provide an accurate snapshot of the electorate, the Yes camp only needs to peel off 22.6 percent of large pool of undecideds to prevail (1 in 4.4 voters). That's a very realistic goal.

And given a margin of error of approximately +/-3 percent, the initiative may actually top the 60 percent mark without one additional vote.

While the above hypothesis may project a rosy outlook, supporters' concerns are somewhat justified. History and the 60 percent requirement for passage work against them.

Florida voters approved the 60 percent rule for amendments in 2006. Since then, 13 of 25, or 52 percent, failed to top the higher threshold, including eight of the 11 statewide ballot initiatives in 2012.

Additionally, a 2012 Cal-Berkeley study of ballot measures in California found they rarely prevailed when trailing in the polls. Additionally, the research revealed undecided voters broke against proposals on Election Day. It should be noted that in California, only a simple majority is needed for passage.

And another factor that could move the needle: Opposition group Drug Free Florida this week launched a $1.6 million TV advertising blitz in the run-up to Election Day.

So where does Amendment 2 stand?

The News-Press forecast model remains bullish on Amendment 2, giving it a 58.7 percent probability of becoming law.

Additionally, even with the bulk of the undecided shifted to the No column, our model predicts the measure will pass 60.8 percent to 39.2 percent.

Those numbers are in the same ballpark as the Fair District amendments in 2010, which recorded a tick under 63 percent.

Taking all the data together, Amendment 2 remains a narrow favorite to pass on Nov. 4.

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