Commuters and transit advocates say they believe that riders will soon be hit with fare increases to pay for the deal that averted the state's first rail strike in 30 years

In announcing the agreement between NJ Transit and 11 unions on Friday, Gov. Chris Christie said that fares won't be raised in fiscal year 2017, which runs through June of next year, to fund the settlement.

But commuters, who are feeling the fiscal pain after fares were increased by 9 percent on Oct. 1, are worried they'll be asked to pay more once again after fiscal year 2017 ends. The contract runs through 2019.

And that's on a system that advocates say already has the highest fares in the nation.

Riders and advocates also say they doubt the line can be held on fares because of the declining amount of state funding for the agency's operating costs.

"I expected [a fare increase]. ... Amtrak fees (to use the Northeast Corridor) are going way up, there are always things to drive it up," said David Peter Alan, a veteran transit advocate and Lackawanna Commuter Coalition chairman. "It will be the middle of next year."

While Christie said there wouldn't be an immediate fare increase, he added that fares should periodically increase to cover inflation.

"The key word there is immediate, as it leaves the door open for another hike, especially when we've seen over the years how underfunded NJT is," said Jared Moore, a Pascack Valley Line commuter. "I wouldn't be surprised if they raised fares again within the next two years."

Others said they expect NJ Transit will follow the lead of the MTA in New York, which has enacted several small fare increases over the past couple of years. The last MTA fare hike, in March 2015, was prompted by a contract settlement.

NJ Transit's agreement would provide a total wage increase of 21 percent, averaging 2.5 percent annually.

"They can't pay people more and not have a fare increase," said Joseph Clift, a former Long Island Rail Road planning director. "Eventually, there are only two sources, the taxpayer and riders, and the riders are going to have to pony up."

Fiscal year 2017 runs from June 30, 2016 to July, 1, 2017 and Clift said the governor has likely identified funding sources in the proposed state budget to deliver on the promise of no fare increases during that time period.

"Which means anything from July 1 on, is fair game," Clift said. "I wouldn't be surprised if there was one later in 2017."

Even without the $209 million estimated cost of a tentative labor settlement, other factors are at play.

NJ Transit must pay Amtrak $100 million this year -- a $20 million increase -- to lease space on the Northeast Corridor line. Advocates also said there has been a steady decline of direct state subsidy of NJ Transit operating costs.

"As long as Republicans in the administration and the Democrats in the legislature keep the NJT operating subsidy so low, the riders will pay," Alan said.

Fueling fare hike worries is NJ Transit's lack of dedicated funding to pay for operating expenses, which includes the price tag of the proposed union settlement. Operating funds come from fares and the level of state subsidy, which changes according to the decisions of the governor and the legislature.

A Tri-State Transportation Campaign report, "Stuck at the Station"

estimated that $6.5 billion in capital funding has been diverted to cover operating costs since 1990, which could have funded projects such as finishing an extension of light rail to Bergen County, or replaced aging buses and trains.



That report also said that direct state funding for NJ Transit operations has declined by 90 percent between 2005 and 2016, and recommended a dedicated funding source for operations.

Christie said he didn't believe dedicated funding was needed when asked at the Friday press conference.



"It has to be done. NJ Transit has the highest fares of any system in the nation and they have a high breakdown rate," said Len Resto, New Jersey Association of Railroad Passengers president. "We thought there would be a fare increase (for reasons) not related to the settlement."

An NJ-ARP analysis found NJ Transit fare are the highest in the nation out of the largest commuter rail lines.

"Raising NJ Transit fares yet again next year, when our fares are already the highest on average in the country, would seem like a slap in the face to mass transit commuters, when motorists currently pay the lowest fuel taxes in the Lower 48 States," said Matt Walters, co-founder of the New Jersey Commuters Action Network.

Larry Higgs may be reached at lhiggs@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @commutinglarry. Find NJ.com on Facebook.



