The injuries obscure all else. Atlético Madrid go into the Champions League final in Lisbon having overcome a series of seemingly insuperable obstacles to win the league and yet, even for them, to stop Real Madrid winning la décima possibly without two of their best and most consistent players this season might be a miracle too far. But Real Madrid have a problem as well, one rooted not in personnel but in approach.

In the semi-final victory over Bayern Munich, Real were happy to cede possession, sit deep and spring forward on the counterattack. Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale, both skilful, powerful and ferociously quick, are ideally suited to that sort of game (as is Angel di María – for all his recent reinvention as a carillero, shuttling up and down from a more central position – and he replaced Bale on the flank in the first leg). Once Bayern had gone behind they were caught in a classic bind: they needed to attack, but every time they did so they looked like conceding, exposing space behind their midfield for the pace of Ronaldo and Bale to exploit. Karim Benzema’s role in that, moving intelligently across the front line to create the angle for the break, should not be overlooked.

In that game, with five to seven outfielders behind the ball most of the time, Real looked defensively secure. The problem is, they won’t be able to play like that against Atlético, who will be quite happy to let them have the ball – in fact, will probably encourage them to have the ball. That’s nothing especially unusual for Real: they are a team used to dominating possession. According to stats on Whoscored.com, they average 58.8% possession in league games this season, more than anybody else in La Liga other than Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano. Atlético, by contrast, averaged only 48.9%, only the ninth highest figure.

And when Real have the ball, when they take the initiative, they are defensively susceptible to sides with sufficient quality on the counterattack. Although they often put four or five against weaker opposition, Real this season let in six in two league games against Barcelona (when perhaps they should have played more as they did against Bayern), five in two games against Sevilla, four in two games against Villarreal and four in two games against Valencia. That is the challenge facing any team that seeks to control the ball: the best ball-players tend not to be the best defenders and so, when the ball is lost, they are vulnerable. Pick a better defensive player, though, and the ball will probably not be retained as well.

Real struggled in both league games against Atlético this season. At the Bernabéu, back in September, Real played a 4-4-2, with Cristiano Ronaldo as a second striker behind Benzema, Di María wide on the right and Isco drifting on from the left flank. Atlético’s tight midfield four simply dominated the centre, beating the advantage Real should have had in wide areas. Even when Real got good possession wide, Di María and Isco found themselves facing an eight-man bunker every time they looked to turn infield. Only when Di María stayed wide and looked to get in crosses did Real offer much of a threat. Asier Illarramendi, in particular, seemed rattled by the intensity with which Atlético closed him down as soon as he approached a dangerous area.

Illarramendi and Di María were withdrawn at half-time for Bale and Luka Modric as Real switched to a 4-2-3-1 and, while that improved things a little, the tendency of Bale and Ronaldo to cut inside meant they kept running into traffic. Atlético were far the more threatening and could easily have won more comfortably by more than 1-0, thanks largely to an awesome performance from Diego Costa, who constantly worked the channels outside the two Real centre-backs and had the energy to harass them in possession.

It was the game in March, at the Vicente Calderón, that probably provided the more significant tactical pointers, though. There, playing the 4-3-3 they are likely to adopt on Saturday, Real had 64% possession. Even though they had one more central midfielder than they had had in the home game, they were bullied by Atlético’s narrow four, who were supplemented by the use of Raúl García as a very deep-lying second striker. That Real three of Xabi Alonso, Modric and Di María is technically superb, but it is lacking in physicality, and Atlético were able to impose themselves, at least until they began to run out of steam in the final quarter of the game.

Xabi Alonso is suspended for Saturday, which means either Illarramendi or Khedira – if he is sufficiently recovered from his knee injury – taking his place in the centre. García could reprise his role or, if he is called into service on the flank, Adrián could play centrally, but it may be that with no such obvious metronome, the manager Diego Simeone sees no need to take such direct action: in training on Wednesday, he tried a 4-1-4-1, with Mario Suárez behind a line of Koke, Tiago, Gabi and Arda Turan (although that does not necessary mean Arda is fit). Suárez did not play in first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final when Real won 3-0; it is safe to say the defensive muscle he offers was missed.

Atlético’s two key players in that game, though, were probably the outside players in the four-man midfield (it feels misleading to refer to them as wide men). The role Koke and Arda play is an unusual one in the modern game: they offer width, they block in the opposing full-backs and they become auxiliary central midfielders. It is exhausting work, physically and mentally, and, given how important Real’s full-backs are in overlapping wingers who naturally cut infield, it is vital. That is why the possible loss of Arda is such a huge issue for Atlético.

There is a knock-on effect as well: the Atlético right-back Juanfran, as he showed against Chelsea, is adept at getting forwards. In recent years, teams who have eliminated Real from the Champions League have tended to have a right-back who has exploited the space Cristiano Ronaldo inevitably leaves on that flank. Juanfran, though, with an unfamiliar figure in front of him, may tend to conservatism, leaving one of the potential flaws in this Real side unprobed.

Still, if Atlético can solve their issues of personnel, it is Real who have the bigger questions of system to answer.