Umno and PAS control over 80 seats in the Dewan Rakyat and each rule two largely rural and super Malay-majority states. — Picture by KE Ooi

KUALA LUMPUR, July 9 — Conservatives who are now the vanguard of the political Opposition could pose a genuine threat to Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) rule and progressive politics if the newly-elected government botches handling race and religion issues, analysts warned.

Attempts to derail the current administration by exploiting communal prejudices are already visible, they said, pointing to the rapid spread of nativist propaganda that aimed to stoke fear among the majority of Malay voters who are on the fence.

“Yes Umno, PAS won many Malay majority seats. For the first time since 1957, it is majority Malay-Muslims,” Datuk Denison Jayasooria, political analyst with Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, told Malay Mail.

“Yes some sections are dwelling on race and religious issues post GE14 there are already attempts to derail the democratic process.

“Democratic space is open now so all groups have freedom to raise their view this will be a challenge to the new government,” he added.

Umno and PAS control over 80 seats in the Dewan Rakyat and each rule two largely rural and super Malay-majority states; the former kept Perlis and Pahang while the Islamist party retained Kelantan and won Terengganu.

Umno also nearly bagged as many seats as PH in Kedah and had enough support to tilt the balance in Perak.

Although both parties are technically enemies, they have a power base that share common characteristics — poor, conservative and religious.

Jayasooria and other analysts Malay Mail spoke with said this demographic group may not necessarily identify with pro-Malay racism, but fear the erosion of traditional values to so-called “liberal” forces.

One analyst pointed out too that this group was the key that helped propel PH into power, but stressed that it would be wrong to assume that these Malay voters are entirely progressive and open to the kind of cosmopolitan politics espoused by the four-party coalition.

And as the new government pushes for structural reform and make way for a more open democratic space, it will face enormous challenges in trying to contain these fringe but vocal groups from exploiting the freer political environment to stir racial suspicion, they added.

As the May 9 polls and past elections have indicated, economic issues always trumped over communalism, argued Penang Institute executive director, Ooi Kee Beng. ― Picture by Yusof Mat Isa

Conservative fence-sitters

On the contrary, PH’s core support is typically multiracial, urban and middle class. Despite enjoying a significant surge in Malays support that led to its shock 14th general election victory, they mostly came from lower-income Malay fence-sitter voters frustrated by their economic condition, not so much due to the Datuk Denison Jayasooria noted that PH has so far been unable to keep its pledge to lower prices of basic goods even after rolling back the goods and services tax. — Picture by Siow Saw Feng coalition’s push for progressive politics or greater civil liberties.

This is evident in the backlash that followed the debacle over Tommy Thomas’ appointment as Attorney-General or the uproar after Minister of Finance Lim Guan Eng’s move to issue a translated press statement in Chinese.

For the latter case, pro-Malay groups linked to the former ruling Malay party Umno were said to have succeeded in drawing Malay ire by harping on Thomas’ ethnicity and Christianity, and also his article in support of the Catholic Church over its legal tussle to use the Arabic term “Allah” to describe God in its Malay-language Bibles.

The furore over Lim’s Chinese statement on the other hand led to the revival of past allegations of a conspiracy for a Chinese power takeover, an accusation that some political analysts said have stuck with the DAP and was only partially allayed after Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his all-Malay party, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, joined PH last year.

In both instances, Malay backlash were evident on social media and included those who professed to have backed PH on May 9.

But whether or not the fearful sentiment is shared by majority of the Malays is debatable. As the May 9 polls and past elections have indicated, economic issues always trumped over communalism, argued Penang Institute executive director, Ooi Kee Beng.

“Much of the opposition from now on will come from that front, and it won’t be based on fear necessarily but on the fact that that constituency can still be exploited until and unless the new government manages to improve the socio-economic conditions of the lower 40 per cent including all ethnic groups,” he said.

Jayasooria shared a similar view, but noted that PH has so far been unable to keep its pledge to lower prices of basic goods even after rolling back the goods and services tax (GST).

“Key for PH is to address cost of living issues and B40 concerns in a way that no community feels left behind..while PH addresses GST but it has not had the impact on the low income,” he said. The term B40 refers to the bottom 40 per cent of income earners nationwide.

Placate the Malays?

Though cost of living pressure was the decisive factor in almost all past elections, but some political analysts have argued there were instances where race and religion played the rare decider.

The “Allah” case, for example, was cited as having swung Malay voters back to Umno and Barisan Nasional in the 13th general election.

But still, both Jayasooria and Ooi believe it is still early to suspect the new administration’s ability to tackle delicate and sensitive issues. They feel Dr Mahathir has so far done well to contain communal fear without compromising reform.

“As it looks now, I think it will manage things quite well. It is very early days yet, and the transition so far has gone very smoothly. This is not only thanks to the government but to the goodwill of many other actors,” Ooi said.

Yet, PH was cautioned against taking the threat posed by groups that will attempt to harp on communal prejudices lightly. Jayasooria said the trick will be in rolling out laws to safeguard racial harmony and effective media campaign not only as a means to educate, but also to empower moderate voices.

“PH has not addressed ethnic and religious issues, they must explain terms like is Malaysia an Islamic state etc,” he said.

“Danger is that... issues on race and religion, if not well explained, is dangerous. There must be a fresh highlight of being Malaysian in a new malaysia and not based on any racial or religious superiority,” Jayasooria said.