On Monday, the Kurds of Iraq took a concrete step towards realizing their dream. The vote count has started, and there is a strong likelihood of an overwhelming vote in favor of statehood. Already there is euphoria, and relief that despite some predictions to the contrary, the referendum went off without notable violence even in the disputed areas. The Kurds of northern Iraq are hoping that the referendum will launch the process for establishing a Kurdish state.

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But this step has produced alarm and concern in Baghdad, in key regional states and in the West, including the United States. Critics express concern about the timing and the geographic scope of the referendum (which also took place in the province of Kirkuk and other disputed areas, which are under Kurdish control even though they lie outside the Kurdish region). They argue that the referendum could become a new driver of instability and possibly conflict in a part of the world that already has more than its share of both. Indeed, such a consequence cannot be ruled out. Even among Kurds, joy is mixed with apprehension as they worry about the punitive measures that their neighbors might take, above and beyond the initial steps already announced by Ankara, Baghdad and Tehran.

The United States has opposed the referendum, citing its potentially destabilizing effects, its likely impact on the Iraqi elections scheduled for April, and the continuing fight against the Islamic State. But now that it has taken place, the Trump administration needs to adjust its policy. The United States should immediately begin developing a strategy for containing the possibly negative consequences of the vote.

During recent discussions with Masoud Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, I asked him why he wanted to hold the referendum now and why he was resisting pressure from the United States and others to delay it. He told me that while he likes Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi as a person, he believes that a sectarian and authoritarian system is consolidating its hold in Baghdad and that it is intent on reasserting control over the entire country, including the Kurdish region. This regime, he said, is acquiring sophisticated weapons that will give it a military edge over the Kurds. Meanwhile, despite many promises, Baghdad and the world, including the United States, have not seriously addressed Kurdish concerns and have ignored agreements (such as implementing the constitutional provision on Kirkuk and other disputed areas that had called for a referendum in those areas for the year 2007). The United States did offer to support a delayed referendum if negotiations with Baghdad failed, Barzani noted, but the proposal came far too late, long after public mobilization was well underway and backing down was politically impossible. I believe there may be a personal dimension to Barzani’s insistence as well. Given a lifetime devoted to this issue, and given his age (he is now 71), one can assume that he felt a personal responsibility to see it through.

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Even though the Kurdish leadership did not heed U.S. demands, our interests will not be served by adopting a punitive course or a wait-and-see strategy. Such approaches would be counterproductive. The Kurds will not reverse what took place. Continuing U.S. pressure can only serve to destabilize Kurdistan, while emboldening Baghdad and the Iranian-controlled militias. It will have a similar effect on Turkish and Iranian policies, increasing the potential for further unrest in the wider region.

Instead, we should choose a proactive damage control strategy that protects our interests and allows us to shape the next steps.

In commenting on the referendum, we can continue to express our regret that this path was chosen. This, in fact, accurately reflects our stance, as well as maintaining our credibility with other opponents of the referendum, including Turkey. But in the weeks and months to come, it will be best to play down the vote. Indeed, our recent interventions almost certainly had an effect opposite to what we intended, elevating the significance of the referendum. We should now stress that the outcome is not surprising to anyone, and to treat it more like a public opinion poll than a major political upheaval.

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We should restate our objective of seeking a negotiated outcome to resolve the differences between Baghdad and Erbil in determining future relations and the ultimate status of the Kurdish region. We should help to start such negotiations at the earliest opportunity. The Kurds have clearly stated that they are ready to start talks on the day after the referendum, and have said that they do not view holding the referendum in the disputed areas as determinative of their future legal boundaries. They have also reiterated that they are open to a confederal arrangement, at least for an undetermined transitional period. This offers plenty of room for constructive discussions.

Baghdad is almost certain to respond to the result with anger and will be reluctant to engage in negotiations for some months to come. Here is where we, the United Nations or both can come in to make sure nothing major goes awry until negotiations get underway.

Two issues of interest to al-Abadi should lead him to favor such an approach: He wants Kurdish participation in the Iraqi elections, and he is anxious to prevent a unilateral declaration of independence by Kurdistan. We should also discourage our regional friends and allies, not just Baghdad, from taking punitive actions. We should anticipate security incidents and be prepared to assess them quickly and work to avoid escalation. We should urge Baghdad and Erbil to keep security channels between them open. Should these be suspended, our role will become critical.

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We have a long history of productive relations with the Kurds. They play a vital role in the continuing fight against the Islamic State. We enjoy a valuable intelligence relationship with them and benefit from access to military facilities in their region. In addition, they are religiously tolerant, which is rare in the region, and have been welcoming of refugees and internally displaced persons.