TPP taking a backseat to SCOTUS?

TPP TAKING BACKSEAT TO SCOTUS? — An M.M. source says members of the business community have come away from meetings with senior administration officials including Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, NEC Chair Jeff Zients and USTR Michael Froman worried that the new fight over Merrick Garland’s Supreme Court nomination could sap White House staff time and political capital away from an effort to get the Trans Pacific Partnership through Congress.

The source said the White House window for getting TPP done is June and July, before the party conventions. And the fear is that with top staff deployed to the Garland effort, TPP could wind up flagging. “There is only so much staff time and so much political capital left for this administration,” the source said. “It’s not clear they can do both of these things in the little time they have left.”


LUETKEMEYER CALLS WARREN “DARTH VADER” — M.M. hosted a panel at the ABA conference on Wednesday that generated some controversy when Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.), a senior member of the House Financial Services Committee, said people needed to “find a way to neuter” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), whom he called “the Darth Vader of the financial services world.” Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) rebuked the remarks: “His comments about Elizabeth Warren using the words 'neuter' and 'Darth Vader' are very misplaced because she speaks for a lot of people.’”

Warren responded on MSNBC’s “All in with Chris Hayes”: http://on.msnbc.com/1TQdMmH

NEW EFFORT TO REIN IN ACTIVIST FUNDS — Per release going out this a.m.: “U.S. Senators Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) introduced legislation to increase transparency and strengthen oversight of activist hedge funds. … The Brokaw Act is named for a small Wisconsin town that went bankrupt after an out-of-state hedge fund closed a paper mill that had provided good jobs to the town for over 100 years. … The Brokaw Act reforms the definition of ‘person or group’ in order to prevent wolf packs from skirting the intent of the disclosure rules.”

FIRST LOOK: IMMELT MAKING IT WORK — New Bloomberg Businessweek cover on GE by Devin Leonard and Rick Clough: “The company is selling off its division that makes refrigerators and microwave ovens. Now it’s focused on electric power generators, jet engines, locomotives, and oil-refining gear. And it’s made a significant bet on developing software to connect these devices to the Internet” http://buswk.co/GE Cover image: http://bit.ly/22lxWcU

DONALD TRUMP: GLOBAL ECONOMIC RISK — POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman: “A Donald Trump presidency poses a top-10 risk event that could disrupt the world economy, lead to political chaos in the U.S. and heighten security risks for the United States, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. Electing Trump could also start a trade war, hurt trade with Mexico and be a godsend to terrorist recruiters in the Middle East, according to the latest EIU forecasts.

“The well-respected global economic and geopolitical analysis firm put a possible Trump presidency in its top 10 global risks this month … Other risks include a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, a fracture of the Eurozone, and Britain's possible departure from the European Union.” http://politi.co/1QYD3Zv

FED GOES DOVISH — HFE’s Jim O’Sullivan: “Fed officials left policy on hold ... The more notable takeaway from the meeting was moredovish-than-expected forward guidance. Officials still expect/hope to be tightening again this year, but the median projection for the likely appropriate funds rate now shows just 50 basis points of tightening this year, down from 100 basis points in December.

Morgan Stanley: “Although the door remains open for a June hike, we expect core PCE inflation to fall into mid-year, which could prompt the Fed to push on hiking at each meeting until December. … The Fed would like to do more, if and when it can do more, but the statement and ‘dots’ portray a Committee that continues to follow a prudent policy that recognizes the asymmetric risks to tightening when at or near the zero lower bound”

MUFG’s Chris Rupkey: “So much for the market’s fears that the Fed would surprise with a rate hike … Incredibly, the Fed sees even less urgency to normalize interest rates at today’s meeting. .. We aren’t sure what spooked them. … “It will certainly take another year for headline inflation to rise to the Fed’s 2 percent target, but this is not due to the health of the American economy or where we are in the business/economic cycle. 2 percent will not be met for another year simply because the oil crash brought down gasoline prices. … We must admit we don’t get the Fed’s caution and concern with the risks out there in the world.”

GARLAND: FRIEND OF REGULATORS — Reuters: “Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland has been sympathetic to government regulators in his almost two decades as an appeals court judge, frequently rejecting business-led challenges to federal action. His overall record, however, suggests he is a moderate who follows Supreme Court precedent and is not eager to spearhead efforts to adopt novel legal theories. Garland sits on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which hears a large proportion of the legal challenges to major federal regulations in areas such as environment and labor.

“They are often brought by business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Cases are assigned randomly to three-judge panels. Garland has avoided some of the most contentious cases of recent years, including challenges to government efforts under President Barack Obama to curb carbon emissions and ensure equal access to Internet data via its so called ‘net neutrality’ rule.” http://reut.rs/1RlNAA4

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Happy St. Patrick’s and NCAA Tournament Day everyone! Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben.

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Colin Wilhelm on Senate Democrats' new bill curbing short-term activist investing — and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. — please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 [email protected]

DID THE FED GET IT RIGHT? — WSJ’s Greg Ip: “The Fed … eased monetary policy on Wednesday, and the global economy is safer for it. No, the Fed didn’t cut interest rates. But monetary policy works through words as well as actions, and Fed officials signaled they would raise rates only two more times this year instead of four. This wasn’t a shock.

“Markets had already written off any chance of rates rising that much. But hearing it from the Fed still matters because it proves the central bank means it when it says rate increases aren’t on a preset path. The response in the financial markets said it all: The dollar fell, two-year bond yields dropped, the stock market rose and the price of oil jumped. That represents an easing of financial conditions as important as an actual rate cut.” http://on.wsj.com/1ppeY3l

SHOULD CORPORATE AMERICA PUSH FOR GARLAND? — Reuters’ BreakingViews’ Reynolds Holding: “Obama’s nominee for the top U.S. court has been tough on crime, deferential to agencies and mostly silent on business as a judge. Companies can take comfort in his smarts and centrist rulings. With the GOP intransigent, it’s not obvious someone more palatable will come along.” http://reut.rs/1QZBGd0

HELLO CLEVELAND! LET'S ROCK AND ROLL — WP’s Karen Tumulty and Jose A. DelReal: “With the increasingly loud talk of a contested Republican convention, the obscure process of picking who actually gets to be a delegate is about to get underway in states across the country — with an urgency that has not been felt in decades. These are the 2,472 people who will be filling Cleveland’s Quicken Loans Arena in July, many wearing silly hats and waving placards. … Nearly all will be required to vote for a specific candidate on the first ballot, based on the results of the primaries and caucuses in their states.

“But if no candidate wins enough delegates to clinch the nomination, there will be subsequent rounds of voting. In that scenario, the vast majority of delegates would be free to vote as they please. The potential for intrigue is enormous. State delegations who vote for one candidate on the first ballot could actually turn out to be sleeper cells for another as the voting proceeds. … Those kinds of battles can determine whether the convention is an orderly coronation or a street fight, possibly even putting new names in contention." http://wapo.st/1ppg9Qj

NOT ALL BANKERS LOATHE TRUMP — Bloomberg’s Tara Lachapelle: “M&A practitioners and observers think Republican candidate Donald Trump would be the best U.S. president … for dealmaking. About 22 percent of 140 bankers, lawyers and others in the M&A community favor the billionaire when it comes to business interests, including mergers and acquisitions, according to a survey released Wednesday by Brunswick Group … That's enough to make him their top pick. … Not far behind are Democrat Hillary Clinton, with 21 percent, and Republican John Kasich, with 19 percent.” http://bloom.bg/1UBabHQ

ASIA RISES POST-FED — Reuters: “Asian shares gained across the board on Thursday and the dollar was on the defensive after suffering substantial losses as risk appetite revived after the U.S. Federal Reserve reduced the number of interest rate hikes expected this year. … The potential for more money to continue flowing into commodities and equities, rather being lured by higher U.S. interest rates, boosted crude oil and emerging market stocks. … Asian equities took their cue from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 closed at its highest level this year following the U.S. central bank's cautious message” http://reut.rs/1XwznOX

ACKMAN CRUSHED — Business Insider’s Julia LaRoche: “Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, founder of $12 billion Pershing Square Capital, is having the worst year in his fund's history. Pershing Square Holdings, his fund's publicly traded vehicle, has fallen 26.4 percent through March 15, according to a performance update. And the first quarter isn't even over. Last year, Pershing Square suffered its ‘worst year’ in its history, losing 20.5 percent. His returns so far this year have been mostly dragged down by Valeant Pharmaceuticals' massive decline. Ackman is the largest hedge fund shareholder with more than 30.71 million shares, or a 9 percent stake” http://read.bi/1nPR9R0

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR —

MFA ON REG AT — Per release from the Managed Funds Association: “‘MFA Members support the CFTC’s goal of modernizing regulatory oversight of futures trading with appropriate risk controls, transparency measures and other safeguards,’ MFA President and CEO Richard H. Baker said. ‘However, this proposal takes a one-size-fits-all approach and MFA Members have concerns with aspects of the proposal that could put sensitive and proprietary information at risk, unnecessarily.’” Full comment letter: http://bit.ly/1R524yM

TIME TO FIX CTR LIMITS? — Via latest Bipartisan Policy Commission’s Aaron Klein and Kristofer Readling: “In the early 1970s the federal government instituted a new anti-money laundering provision, requiring banks to report to the Treasury Department any cash transaction involving more than $10,000. This threshold to trigger a Currency Transaction Report (CTR) was a substantial sum of money at the time — more than an entire year’s worth of income for the typical American household.

“More than four decades later, that $10,000 figure remains unchanged, despite substantial inflation and economic growth. In fact, as of today, Saint Patrick’s Day, the typical American family has earned enough that if they deposited or withdrew their salary in cash, it would trigger a CTR.” http://bit.ly/22oeSr5

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