Brexiters are abandoning Theresa May in her hour of need because she broke her promises The Prime Minister’s EU deal was always going to face some opposition in the Commons. Any plan would be unlikely […]

The Prime Minister’s EU deal was always going to face some opposition in the Commons.

Any plan would be unlikely to secure the support of Labour – on the not-unreasonable grounds that it is an Opposition’s job to oppose, but also because even many Corbynites carry in their hearts a positively Blairite enthusiasm for the EU.

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It was probable that there would be some sort of pro-Remain rebellion on the Tory benches, too, albeit a small one. Perhaps it would be limited only to Ken Clarke, given the way in which many former Remainers had honourably agreed to accept the referendum result. Even Anna Soubry said two years ago that “you can’t vote for a Referendum and then renege on delivering the result because you don’t like the result”, while Dominic Grieve argued in 2017 that people who thought Parliament might undo Article 50 had “lost their heads”.

Meanwhile, the traditionally more rebellious Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party – far larger than the rump John Major derided as “bastards” 25 years ago – was dutifully loyal. The promises that Theresa May gave at Lancaster House, and then in the Conservative manifesto, satisfied them.

Now? All change. Well, almost all – Labour still seem reliably set to march through the No lobby. But the Prime Minister’s mismanagement of the central – the sole – task of her time in office has managed to divide her own MPs in three directions.

Remainers rebelling

The most dedicated Conservative Remainers have been so tempted by their leader’s weakness that several of them are going back on their word and will rebel essentially in the hope of staying in the EU. They present a variety of plans, dressed up in ornate arguments, but they all amount to essentially the same thing – a route to disrupt, dilute, delay, and thereby eventually destroy, Brexit.

May’s retreats, first at Chequers and then in the Withdrawal Agreement, were supposed to ‘bring people together’. They have instead emboldened and inspired pro-EU MPs to rebel more. It is fashionable to praise the virtues of compromise and consensus, but politics remains red in tooth and claw – giving ground is seen as weakness, and when May offered the Remain lobby an inch she emboldened them to demand a mile.

‘Leavers’ reward for two years of loyal support was an outright breach of May’s promises’

Even Leavers are abandoning her

Her disastrous strategy gradually reinflated the Remain wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, but it inflamed the Leaver side.

Not only is this a bad deal from a Eurosceptic perspective, loading the UK with costs without delivering proper democratic self-government in return, but many of May’s colleagues feel it breaks promises made by the Prime Minister to her party and by the Conservative Party to the country. Scores of Tory MPs find themselves unable and unwilling to support it, setting the stage for the largest Commons defeat ever seen.

The Government is working every angle to try to avoid that fate. Labour MPs and Tory Remainers are told that rejecting May’s proposal will lead to No Deal. But it has had little effect: the former group sit on their hands while the Government struggles; the latter holds out for their ideal prize of staying in the EU outright, encouraged by the Speaker’s willingness to help their cause.

So Whips and ministers are left focusing their efforts on the Leavers, changing their tune to threaten that the alternative to this deal is now No Brexit. The problem is, there is precious little reason for the rebels – a funny term for people honouring a manifesto pledge – to trust the Prime Minister or do what she wants.

Consider their experience of Theresa May. She backed Remain, but promised she would implement the referendum result in very clear terms, and they believed her. Their reward for two years of loyal support – even allowing her to continue when she cost her Party its majority and several of her MPs their seats – was served up at Chequers: an outright breach of those promises, accompanied with a side order of complacent expectation of further obedience.

No reason to help

Politicians may be tribal, but they are not stupid (mostly). If believing promises and doing what you’re told is of no benefit, then you have little reason to keep doing so. The fury of many of the activists and voters who control their future reinforces the point.

Now it is clear that being helpful is a hiding to nothing, some Leaver MPs reason that hostility offers the best chance of getting what they want.

They, too, have heard May’s message – intended for the other side – that she is scared stiff of No Deal, for all her previous pledges to the contrary. If so, they reason, they must make it so she will have to give ground in order to avoid that outcome. Carrot didn’t work, so stick it will have to be.

Mark Wallace is executive editor of ConservativeHome.com. @wallaceme