So, deep dark confession I have not told anyone until now. Anyone. Pretty much every circle I am in emphatically does NOT think this, passionately so. And there may be content from here regarding this subject that goes the expected way, which really puts pressure on me saying what I have to say correctly.

I don’t hate the early merge this time.

It’s conventional to hate it for most people. It is a boon for no one. Sure, more people sticking around longer sounds interesting, but it generally is the opposite of interesting. Half of them have gotten little content and will downgrade to getting no content. Hell, at the merge of GI, we had thirteen people, and literally seven of them had any relevance to the story. We have stuffed episodes with tons of votes and way too many redshirts, leading to a finale that barely scratches the surface of the entire endgame.

While some of that is true for David vs Goliath, I don’t think it all will be true as much, because every person has a purpose in the storyline. Some are small (Alec likes needless big moves) and some, like Angelina and Elizabeth, are on the outer specter despite their active presence. Still, everyone in this thirteen person merge feels like they have a point.

What is their point, exactly? Well, that’s the purpose of the article. At around the end of the pre-merge, I tend to get a hankering for what I like to call storytelling edgic. Storytelling edgic is… more the logic than the editing. What has the story dictated for us? What are we to believe? It isn’t just who got the most MORs or whatever the hell. It’s “what purpose are we led to believe each person has in the grander storyline of DvG?”

Let’s find out.

Tiva Tribe

Brochachos

Here’s the thing about the Brochachos- I don’t hate them, and I am stunned by that. A self-named bro alliance of all dudes trying to look cool should seriously irritate the snot out of me. Yet, by the powers of John’s smoothness and Christian’s genuineness, I kinda like them, because they’re both dorks that get way into it for reasons other than looking cool. It’s a good thing I can stand them, too, because I feel like they are gonna dominate the conversation this season whether or not they dominate the season.

I lean towards them not dominating the season because there is a third member of the alliance named Dan. Dan has always felt like the filler player of the Brochachos, which is in my mind largely a John/Christian deal. Dan seems like a nice guy, but a nice doofus who is strategically and socially not on their levels. Everyone knows about one of his idols, and he hasn’t been painted as expecting the blindside others anticipate giving him. If he does not go out with one of his idols, I will be stunned.

So, after that happens, what will happen then?

Christian

Other Connections: Gabby, Nick

Christian strikes me as having the most longevity of the three. He’s not an immediate target and he can make connections very well through his self-effacing affability and willingness to try any situation. I have a feeling that he’s gonna be one of the more adaptable players I’ve seen.

In the group of the three Brochachos, Christian seems like the odd man out, being a David and this season’s perennial nerd character. However, he’s been the most involved in the Brochacho spirit and the best at reaching out to others. I think they will survive the first few votes because Christian will be the best at bringing in people like Gabby and Nick- and whoever they bring in. When they break apart, I doubt anyone will come after him.

This leads to a question about the effect of the Brochachos on Christian- will he be able to keep a level head regarding Gabby, or will he be sucked into the popular vibe of the alliance and turn against him? To steal a term to befit John, turn heel, even? I think Christian is genuinely nice to Gabby, and comforts her in a very legitimate manner. However, we’ve also gotten confessionals from Gabby where she points out that the Brochachos feel like a separate entity from her- Christian included. He’s said that being accepted and validated by a group of people plays into his overall goal as a person- will the appreciation of those who are unlike Christian lead him away from Gabby, who is closer to his roots?

Speaking of surprise heel turns, it’s been theorized that Nick could turn heel on Christian. While we’ve gotten bits of him talking about justice and decency, we’ve also gotten snippets of him making deals with everyone and wanting to cut Gabby to secure Christian’s focus. I think it’s far from unlikely that he would turn on Gabby or a Brochacho to make Christian crawl back to him. I also do not think that it will work- whether at the expense of Christian or Nick.

More than anyone, Christian seems like a long-term player. We know about his alliances and relationships with people, as well as intricacies about his personality. We’re often left with questions about what a person will do, but usually, it’s because we aren’t given enough information. With Christian, we are given options and possibilities to justify each divergent path.

John

Other Connections: Angelina? Kara?

As soon as he roared into the scene naming all twenty-nine of his stage names and talking about how the game would be his personal experience, I admit I had a straight-crush on him. Even though his airtime and impact have dwindled, he’s kept my attention, even if not as much with me as with other people (but is that even possible?) His story seems like it will echo this solitude. This is about John discovering himself, not fitting the role for others. What we get is him developing his character- his strategy, not as much.

Technically, he has the bond with Angelina and Kara from the Goliath alliance, but it was always mentioned very passively, without real influence from him. He was more focused on Natalie, building a relationship down the line in, I guess, a world where she didn’t go off on her weakling tribe (which, I realize I haven’t taken time this season to talk about Natalie Napalm, but holy hell. That woman.) When Natalie was voted out, John seemed the most publicly apprehensive about it, making Mike switch to Lyrsa. John seems likely to be the only one to not be blinded by haterade against Natalie and actually be apprehensive that Goliaths turned on each other.

John seems to be the heart of the Brochachos, a gentle giant with too much BDE to be toxic. However, I don’t have much faith that his story will go beyond them. Maybe he has a Cassandra Truth about the Goliaths pissing away their games, but it likely goes unheard. John is here for himself first, even more than the million dollars, and he will likely get just that much.

Dan

Connections: Angelina? Kara

What do we know about Dan? Well, we know he’s a doofus. We know he’s a nice guy with an even nicer weight loss story that led to his transformation into a literal hot cop harlequin cover model. We know that he likes Kara, that he has two idols, and that Jeremy has long since exposed one.

Dan will be interesting, but so many people have wanted to pull the trigger on him without him so much as being aware. It will almost certainly happen. Will it be by Alison, by Nick, by Angelina and Kara themselves? I am not entirely sure, but it almost certainly happens. I think he is likely to go first of the Brochachos, with John following. His connection with Angelina will likely go by the wayside in the first vote, and his path will be very Brochachy from there, with the occasional Kara appearance.

Alison

Connections: Gabby.

Alison is very sweet. She rots my teeth she’s so sweet. Unlike most sweet people on Survivor she doesn’t seem to put her killer instinct first- instead, she wants to genuinely help people on the way to her goals. That’s really why she bonded with Gabby- she was empathetic to Gabby’s emotional struggle. The only real content we got for her before this episode was her being by far the nicest Goliath- even as Jeff wanted to paint her as this privileged bitch in the beginning.

Strategically, Alison has always been at the peripheral until this week, where she talked about blindsiding Dan. To her, his Brochacho bond and his known idol of the two mean that “it’s not about ‘do I blindside Dan?’, it’s about ‘when?’” However, I do not see Alison having the social sway to get people to blindside Dan. If she tells people about it, it will likely come back to Dan- at the cost of her head. This will also be the first true test of Gabby/Christian- how badly does Gabby want to side with Alison and will Christian even consider it? Time will tell, but I see Alison like Des- she will try something and it will not work due to Dan’s few bonds.

Gabby

Connections: Christian, Alison, Nick*

To go basic bitch for a moment, I am gonna steal a quote from The Hunger Games- “She has no idea. The effect she can have.”

Gabby is a very relatable neurotic and emotional person. Gabby has so far managed to sway two people into closer bonds with her via her emotion and otherwise positivity. I highly doubt that she’s doing that intentionally, but the effect she has on people draws them closer. I think Gabby will fall back on her neuroses and anxiety a lot this game, and I do not see others as listening to anything she has to say. If she makes it to the end, she’ll do it having left emotional impacts on people but not the sway to do anything with them. She’ll, sadly, be remembered only as “the girl who cried a lot”.

If she doesn’t make it to the end, she falls as some sort of betrayal. Will Christian betray her for the Brochachos? Will Nick betray her like the asterisk above implies he wanted to do on the Davids? However she goes, it is the fulcrum or consequence of a paradigm shift on the game. After all, how else could she leave other than affecting the game in a way she didn’t anticipate?

Jabeni Tribe

Rockstars

Nick has a tendency to name alliances. I think he named like 79 of his alliances, but only two have made it to public consciousness- the Mason/Dixon line (with Christian), and the Rockstars (with Mike). The Rockstars seem to be the duo in charge on the Jabeni tribe, with Angelina thinking her jacketless self is the queen of the hill. They were able to get rid of Natalie, then Mike’s insistence got Nick to sacrifice Lyrsa.

At the merge, Mike has little function to the others besides being Nick’s puppy dog- his selfish and isolationist attitude on Goliaths makes him disconnected to anyone still living. He will probably be the undoing of the Goliaths, who were against him looking for the idol from early on. Angelina is no real exception- Mike has already spoken about getting rid of her. It likely will happen.

As for Nick, well… with his connections to almost everyone he has shared a tribe with, he will probably be the safest of everyone come merge. However, having so many connections can come back to bite you. His first episode, where he ran around and tried to work with everyone while Carl commented on his laziness, may be an indicator of his villainy, and since he finds it the easiest to make and break connections out of everyone, it may come to pass.

Just last season, Dom was shown being a hurricane in Episode One and all we got from that was a sense of douchery and a bond with Wendell. Nick may suffer a similar fate in the jury vote, especially if he betrays a lot of his friends to get there.

Angelina

Connections: John?, Kara, Dan?

Angelina is being hyped up as the obvious merge boot, which either is a red herring or, in rare instances, isn’t. The alliance has been shattered by Alec doing whatever the hell he did, meaning she has to start from scratch with a bad reputation being her only weapon. While it would be funny if Alec got blindsided immediately after his needless betrayal, Angelina has been built up as this big bad villain for so long.

From the start, she was the Evil Goliath who thought the Davids were losers, then she backstabbed and blindsided her way up. By the time that Lyrsa said that Angelina was awful because she would sell Lyrsa out for a jacket, I feel like everyone should have crossed her off the list of winner contenders. She’s burning bridges like her feet were made of lit torches.

So, in this case, I think there is no red herring, aside from maybe Elizabeth for Carl-related reasons. I think they want us to marvel at what a big moment this is, revel in her shed blood. This is the kind of attitude from CBS where they cannot act surprised if she gets death threats, because they are really really building her up as the evil Goliath to be slayed, despite not really having much power at all.

Vuku Tribe

Let’s lightning-round this bitch because the Vuku tribe do not seem like they will matter. They all have distinct identities and you can tell what they can do from a passive level, but after they do those things, is there a point to them? Aside from Kara with Dan, I do not think their connections are nearly established enough to get them too far in the game or make them overly relevant.

Elizabeth has gotten a lot of strategic and personal content, but a lot of it has been very in the moment. Always about whatever predicament she is currently in. Saving Lyrsa, or saving the Goliaths. Now that Lyrsa is gone, Elizabeth has only Davie and Carl, both of whom are against her the bamboo issue, and seeing as they wouldn’t even listen to her explain herself after she caused a fuss when they guided her to, I doubt they care about her at all.

I can’t see her lasting long at all post-merge. She could possibly be the merge boot, though I lean more towards her being the decoy for Angelina. Davie and Carl will want to get her back for being annoying, which as you can tell Davie is a great judge of.

Speaking of Davie and Carl, Davie probably has the least going on. A semi-bond with Alec and an idol. It isn’t like he hasn’t gotten growth scenes showing how well he’s doing, but despite that edit, he doesn’t really have a path ahead save for the idol. He may use it successfully once, but after that, we do not have a place for Davie to fit.

If Davie were to do better I truly think he would have had more narrative sway in the scene with the bamboo. We heard it largely through Elizabeth’s side- “I’m really testy about the bamboo because I had a back issue before playing and that’s just making it worse” with a rebuttal from Carl, which I can describe as “yeah but fuck you.” Davie was just shown in confessional about making a crack and then interrupting and shouting over Elizabeth when she was doing the thing I was always taught to do when I was acting out of line. I do not think that scene makes Davie look great, and makes him look more like the #slide into them females dms Davie we feared pregame.

Next to him, we have Carl, ostensibly his kind-of ally through the Jessica vote. Carl seems like a narrator. We do not get much of him as far as character aside from his mourning Jessica, but we will usually see how he feels in regards to the goings-on. Strategically, he is at the forefront of targeting Elizabeth, and he has the idol nullifier. I can see him going semi-far in the Bret Labelle role of “forgotten final minority alliance member who may win the jury vote solely for being in the minority alliance.” More than likely, he will negate one of Dan’s idols. However, he does not strike me as having much agency.

Alec… lol. He blew up his own spot with the Natalia vote. In the meantime, he has secured no one else. He’s gonna target the wrong person and it will bite him because it would be no skin off of anyone’s nose to lose him. I cannot see him lasting in either relevance or actual days and I cannot see anyone altogether caring.

That leaves Kara. Kara is, by far, the best edited of the merge cast. Other contenders seem a little journey-focused or a little negative in some ways. Kara has always been upstanding and game-focused. However, when you think of it… her only tie is with Dan of the Brochachos, and Angelina of the early juror spot. She can probably make it past the early merge minefield, but after that, there is no established path for her. It would have to be one made after the merge, and even then after Dan goes, I don’t see a path for her except one.

If Dan is the vote that splits Nick, Christian, and/or Gabby apart, she has a good chance of flying under the radar when hell breaks loose. Would her bonds have to be established by then? Definitely. Not only that, this is a very specific opportunity under very specific circumstances. However, if it breaks right for her, she can make a run for the million dollars.

Overall, I feel comfortable saying the Vuku tribe are not going to be super integral to the season? Will they last awhile? Probably. There’s a chance that Kara may even win. However, I feel like whatever stories happen will revolve around others. They’ll just be caught up in the orbit.

Conclusions and Predictions

This isn’t GI or HHH. There aren’t perfect outcomes set up. Each path is divergent from another, and I can see the parallel universes that we might miss. I could totally not call it 75%-90% of the way like I nearly exactly called the HHH post-merge (which, holy shit, great on me). It could all fall apart if I get one of those paths wrong.

That being said, the things I do predict are that Angelina will be merge boot, Alison will blow a chance to get Dan and that will split up Christian and Gabby, Nick will be the one to bust up the Brochachos, Vuku will not be overly relevant in any lasting way… and why not, the F4 decides the winner between Christian and Kara.

As I do love to say, we’ll see how things turn out.

-Cam