Election nights are full of drama. After a long campaign, the exhausted candidates and their parties pause for breath and await the verdict of the nation.

Invariably, there is often what is known as a "Portillo moment". The big casualty that unexpectedly loses their seat.

The phenomenon got its name from the downfall of Conservative cabinet minister Michael Portillo.

Image: A dejected-looking Michael Portillo watches on as Stephen Twigg delivers his victory speech

Heading into the 1997 general election, Mr Portillo enjoyed a healthy majority of more than 15,000 in his London seat of Enfield Southgate.

But a little after 3am on election night, this was wiped out and he lost his seat.


The result was seen as totemic of the seismic shift in British politics that had taken place, as Tony Blair swept into Downing Street in a Labour landslide.

Four years ago, the then-shadow chancellor Ed Balls was a high-profile casualty as David Cameron's Conservatives won a surprise majority.

In 2017, former Lib Dem leader and deputy prime minister Nick Clegg lost his seat to Labour.

So, who could be the unlucky victim of this election's "Portillo moment"?

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Dominic Raab

If there is going to be a "Portillo moment" in 2019, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab could very well be the most likely candidate.

The seat is a top target for the Lib Dems, who believe they have a chance in an area in which almost 60% of voters backed Remain in the 2016 referendum.

And a recent poll suggests the party might be in with a shot, putting them just 5% behind.

Image: Pro-Brexit Dominic Raab represents a constituency that voted Remain 2016

A Lib Dem win would be a massive shock, considering the foreign secretary currently has a majority of more than 20,000.

Asked if he was worried about losing his seat, Mr Raab recently told Sky News: "Not really, but look ... well, the truth is with a seat like mine you never take anything for granted."

Iain Duncan Smith

Another prominent Conservative being targeted in this election is the former Tory leader and cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith.

Labour is hoping to claim the high-profile scalp of the former work and pensions secretary.

In that role, which he held from 2010 to 2016, Mr Duncan Smith was instrumental in the rollout of Universal Credit.

This is the government's controversial welfare reform that combines six benefits into a single payment.

Image: Iain Duncan Smith is a target for Labour because of his involvement in Universal Credit

The government has argued it simplifies the system and makes work pay, but critics say it leaves claimants worse off and forces some to rely on foodbanks.

This has made Mr Duncan Smith a target for Labour, which has promised to scrap Universal Credit if Jeremy Corbyn wins the keys to Downing Street.

And with a majority of under 2,500, Mr Duncan Smith could very well be the victim of this election's "Portillo moment".

Boris Johnson

This would be the Portillo moment to end all Portillo moments.

No incumbent prime minister has ever lost their seat at a general election, but the size of Boris Johnson's majority in Uxbridge and South Ruislip has given opponents hope of achieving the unprecedented.

Mr Johnson's majority was halved at the 2017 election, dropping from 10,695 to little more than 5,000.

This is the smallest constituency majority of any PM in living memory, something that has given his opponents hope.

Image: Boris Johnson's majority in Uxbridge was cut in half at the last election

Mr Johnson is one of the targets of Labour campaign group Momentum's #Unseat campaign.

This targets Tory candidates across the country who have small majorities, which make them potentially vulnerable to ousting.

If this came to pass and the Conservatives also won the election, this would open up a constitutional can of worms.

The Cabinet Manual says the PM "will normally" be the leader of the party that commands a majority in the Commons, but this is not a cast-iron requirement.

Jo Swinson

At the start of the campaign, the Liberal Democrat leader declared she was the party's "candidate for prime minister".

Such lofty ambition raised some eyebrows, given every government since the Second World War has been headed by either Labour or the Conservatives.

As the campaign has gone on, it has appeared that the party has failed to make the kind of breakthrough that would shift the balance of power and return the Lib Dems to the heights of 2005 and 2010, when they had more than 50 MPs.

Most polls have the party hovering in the mid-teens in terms of vote share.

Image: Jo Swinson could be vulnerable to an election night shock

A YouGov survey for The Times - which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017 - has projected that the Lib Dems will gain just one MP this time round.

And Ms Swinson's personal approval ratings are not great either.

Given these kind of numbers, some are wondering if the Lib Dem leader could be vulnerable to an election night shock.

She won her East Dunbartonshire seat with a majority of 5,339 in 2017, having narrowly lost it in 2015.

If the SNP enjoys a revival in Scotland, this constituency could be one of those that turns yellow and black.

Could there be any other high-profile casualties?

The YouGov poll mentioned above has suggested that the Tories are on course to win a majority, chiefly by gaining seats off Labour in the North and Midlands.

It suggests that Labour could lose Bolsover, which has been held by Dennis Skinner since 1970s.

Caroline Flint - a minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown - is another candidate that the poll suggests could lose her seat.

Image: Chuka Umunna is standing in a different London seat, having defected to the Lib Dems

Several high-profile independents like Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry, David Gauke and Frank Field could also be in danger, according to the poll.

Another thing to watch out for will be how many of the new Lib Dems manage to win the seats in which they are standing.

These are Sarah Wollaston (Totnes), Antoinette Sandbach (Eddisbury), Philip Lee (Wokingham), Sam Gyimah (Kensington and Chelsea), Chuka Umunna (Cities of London and Westminster), Luciana Berger (Finchley and Golders Green) and Angela Smith (Altrincham and Sale West).

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