ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Earlier this week, in reporting that contrarians did not believe the market had bottomed, I suggested that "When genuine capitulation finally takes place, few will recognize it as such at the time."

I also wrote that "an eagerness to declare that capitulation has occurred probably means that it hasn't." Read my Oct. 7 column.

In today's column, I want to focus on a related way of assessing whether a major bear market is nearing its final low: A gauge I first introduced more than 15 years ago that I call the "Market Timing Popularity Indicator."

This indicator measures where the average adviser lies between the extremes of buy-and-hold and market timing. Historically, buy-and-hold tends to reach its peak of popularity at market tops, just as market timing becomes most out of favor. The inverse tends to be the case at market bottoms.

For example, that means that, as a bear market approaches its final low, at least a few die-hard believers in long-term buy-and-hold throw in the towel and become latter-day converts to market timing.

That has yet to happen, however, at least as judged by my reading of the 200 newsletters monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

Consider some of the comments made over the last couple of days by the buy-and-hold oriented newsletters on the HFD's monitored list:

"At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I urge you to stick with my earlier advice, and stick with your long-term investment plan. Running to cash may sound like a good idea on days like today, but you'll almost certainly miss out on the gains when the market starts behaving more rationally."

"It's important to know that markets have lost this much before and that things will get better. It's just a matter of time... We know that it is critically important to be invested when the market turns around... It's important to remember that the U.S. economy remains the biggest, most resilient and adaptable in the world. Better days and better markets lie ahead."

"It is not easy to keep our eyes on the three-to-five year time horizon, but history has shown that these are the times when those with iron stomachs have been greatly rewarded... My overall faith in the long-term prospects for equities and the long-term health of the U.S. economy remains strong."

"You need to have a plan [and you] also have to be realistic about your goals. On days like we've seen recently, with the market declining 700 points at a time, you have to know that there will be setbacks, but that you're working towards the pot of gold that will be there once the storm clouds clear."

I could go on and on, but you get the idea.

Let me stress that I don't necessarily disagree with the arguments these newsletters are making. I also want to emphasize that many of them have stellar long-term records.

Regardless of whether you or I agree with these buy-and-holders' arguments, however, is irrelevant. My point is instead that, at least historically, some die-hard adherents to buy-and-hold eventually give up the faith -- when things get bad enough. And when this conversion does take place, a bottom is probably not that far away.

Take the end of the last bear market, some five years ago. Just a few days prior to the ensuing bull market taking off, one of the newsletter arena's staunchest supporters of buying and holding declared that he had changed his mind and that he now believed it was essential to be a market timer. My column reporting this change of heart appeared on March 11, 2003, the exact day of the successful retest of the market's bear market low. Read March 11, 2003, column.

To be clear, the timing of that column five years ago was lucky; I would never claim pinpoint accuracy for this market timing model -- or any other, for that matter.

Still, it is worrisome that, unlike what has happened at bear market bottoms in the past, we have yet to see adherents of buying and holding becoming converts to market timing.