That groaning you hear? It's the branch behind me.

Because I'm climbing out on a limb.

Creeeaaaak.

OK, maybe that sound is just my knees, but I'm still out on the boughs where it all might break beneath my considerable weight.

Because I've changed my thinking on this. And I'm going to say it out loud. Doug Jones can win.

Think about that. Doug Jones, a Democrat, in Alabama, has a chance to win a seat in the U.S. Senate in a state more Republican than Dick Nixon. Despite the fact he's never won elected office before, has no real state party to back him, and is sort of ... boring.

Maybe he has a chance because of those things.

And because, more importantly, Roy Moore.

Because every time Roy Moore speaks, Roy Moore comes out of his mouth. And as history has shown, the more Moore is heard, the more Alabamians - even staunchly conservative, deeply religious, red-on-red Alabamians - begin to have doubts.

I mean, the things he says.

It's "against the law" to kneel during the National Anthem, Moore told Time Magazine this week. "It was an act of Congress that every man stand and put their hand over their heart. That's the law."

Which is a guideline, not a law. A Roy Moore law. From a guy who was twice booted off the Alabama Supreme Court because he thought his interpretation of law carried more weight than the federal courts that literally and legally carried more weight.

It's not something that will sway his most fervent supporters. Not something that will convince those who carry signs at his rallies warning that "sodomy ruins nations," or that Jesus will judge the "whoremongerers," "lewd women" and "pot smoking little devils."

But it doesn't have to. Everybody knows Moore will get his base to the polls. And his base is strong and dependable.

It'll show up. It'll vote. A couple hundred thousand Alabamians will reliably appear Dec. 12 to give him unwavering support.

But this is not a typical election. It's a special election, with no other race on the ballot. Which means only the most motivated will even bother. If 15 percent of registered voters show up it'll be a busy day.

It's just Moore. And all he represents.

Against Jones. And all he represents.

Radical against reasonable, theocratic against democratic, boorish against boring, chaos against ...

Calming.

Doug Jones (right) has his eyes on Roy Moore.

Chaos has been popular of late. America is awash in a wave of burn-it-all-down politics. But in the midst of chaos, more chaos is not the best motivator. Not for the chaotic. Or for pro-business conservatives who fear Sen. Roy Moore would stand like a flashing "do not enter" signs on Alabama's economic development borders.

Moore's most faithful will show up. But who else will?

A Fox News Poll this week - that's right, Fox News - found Jones and Moore deadlocked among Alabama voters who are most interested in the race. And the most interested are the ones who will vote.

Polls these days - let me reiterate - are voodoo. Believe them at your own peril.

But Jones' support seems to be growing. Yard signs have become a commodity in some suburbs, and Jones' support on social media has become intense. Granted, it's hard to know what that means. After all, Bernie Sanders's campaign had a lively social media following in Alabama, and that translated into about 19 percent of the vote. Of the Democratic vote.

But Jones is no Bernie. And now is not 2016.

Jones is breaking through. If that's not just the limb behind me.

John Archibald's column appears in The Birmingham News, the Huntsville Times, the Mobile Register and AL.com. Write him at jarchibald@al.com.