For an update on the wildfires and Hurricane Jimena, CLICK HERE

California Wildfires: Here is a Gallery of Photos. In the Ohio Valley, we’ve had a pretty cool summer. July had zero days of 90 degree temperatures for the first time in recorded history. For the next few days, we’ll have highs in just the low to mid 70’s. Its because there has been a general trofiness in the long wave pattern. This pattern has contributed to such things as Hurricane Bill and Tropical Storm Danny going off the east coast toward Canada when that sort of thing is more common in October. The other thing is that while there has been a general trof in the east, there has been a general ridge in the west, which means the other half of the country has been hotter than average and in several areas, drier than normal. There is a big drought in Central Texas and it is quite dry in California, which is a recipe for wildfires in an area that is typically pretty dry all by itself. So, fires are raging near Los Angeles near my boyhood home in La Canada. Here is an interactive map with links for fire information. When I was a kid, La Canada was all by itself but now it more commonly called La Canada-La Crescenta-Flintridge because all of those communities have kinda run into each other. Anyway, our old neighbors have evacuated and the area is under seige as our house backed up to the Angeles National Forest where it appears that this fire originated. To give you an idea of how dry it is…at 8PM EDT a nearby reporting station had 9% humidity. It is called the Station Fire. There are many other fires though and here is a link to wildfire incidents in California. Governer Schwarzenegger has toured the area and issued decrees of warning. It would be a good idea to heed calls to evacuate.

Meanwhile, Baja California is bracing for a hit from a major hurricane. Hurricane Jimena. It’s not totally uncommon for a storm to move due north in the Pacific but its not a typical track. Once it veers off to the west, it will encounter some pretty cold water from the California Stream that originates in Alaska…that is why surfers often wear wetsuits on the west coast. The water is some 20 degrees colder than say, the Gulf of Mexico this time of year. Anyway, what will be interesting to see if some of the moisture from the hurricane will make its way far enough into California to aid in the fire fighting efforts. Probably not a whole lot of help but even a little will be of use.

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009

200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

JIMENA CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE

SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ON INFRARED IMAGES…THE EYE

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT…SUGGESTIVE OF ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T 6.0 FROM

BOTH AGENCIES BUT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A STRONGER HURRICANE

…PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE WARMER EYE. THEREFORE THE NHC INTENSITY

ESTIMATE IS BOOSTED TO 120 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WARM WATERS…LIGHT SHEAR…AND

MOIST TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER…THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD ALSO

BE HALTED AT ANY TIME BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL

WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN

STRENGTH. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR JIMENA. THE

RESULTING INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING

TREND…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALSO BEYOND

48 HOURS…THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE DEPENDENT

ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES…TYPICAL OF THE MOVEMENT OF

INTENSE HURRICANES…BUT THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS

ABOUT 295/07. THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY

UPON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO MAIN FACTORS…A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW

LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IF THE

LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS…IT WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD

WESTWARD AND COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO VEER WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA.

THAT APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE

AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER…THOSE MODELS ARE THE WESTERN

OUTLIERS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS

THE GFS…THE HWRF…AND THE GFDL INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE

HURRICANE…SO THAT JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE

RIGHT…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL

TRACKS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA

CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH

MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W 120 KT

12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W 125 KT

24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W 125 KT

36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W 125 KT

48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W 115 KT

72HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W 75 KT…INLAND

96HR VT 03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 50 KT…INLAND

120HR VT 04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT

$$

FORECASTER PASCH