Every political hack is working hard to build momentum — but not too much — as a campaign launches. A certain momentum killer for the front-runner is the headline: “Majority Sweep Coming!” This is every seasoned campaign manager’s nightmare.

First, it sets expectations too high. Second, it kills volunteers’ hunger and drive: “Hey, I guess I can dump that canvassing, they clearly don’t need me …” Third, for every new donor it may stimulate to give, it dulls the appetite of early supporters: “Well, they don’t need any more money from me!”

Finally, it mobilizes the opposition to work even harder to bring you down — especially if you are the polarizing leader of a party out of power.

Far better a headline that reads, “Purple Party Showing Momentum, Analysts Doubt It’s Enough To Win.” That’s a gift for a fundraising pitch letter. Alternatively, “Pink Party Shows Surprising Growth at Launch,” which sets the leader up: “Surprising?!? They ain’t seen nothing yet, right folks….”

The fine line between momentum and unstoppable is essential to maintain for as late as possible in any campaign. Especially today, as a larger percentage of voters appear to decide on the final weekend, it’s peaking then, not earlier, that is essential.

But there is an even more important reality in Ontario elections. Ontario is a province with an perpetual, balanced three-party system. The three parties have organizations in all parts of the province, campaign hard against each other and — if they are doing their jobs effectively — are seen as three near equals in media coverage.

Now, you may be tempted to say, “So what? That’s true in lots of places,” but you would be wrong. There is no other province which has had the same three parties bashing it out against each other for half a century, with each having won, lost and served in a minority government.

Three party races at the riding level make it even more complex to handicap a race, especially if there are one or two little ankle-biting parties, as well.

Let’s say that the ankle-biters pull in 8 to 9 per cent in total, that means the winner needs 30.5 per cent to get across the finish line. If the regional partisan numbers are 37, 29, 25, 5 and 4 per cent, that means any one of the three big parties can easily win the seat. A strong candidate, heavy rain, or a last minute gaffe, can easily shift the 37 to second place, and either trailing party to victory. So, when you see the “sweep to victory” headlines, turn the page.

Ontario’s history as pollsters’ heartbreaker is long. Bill Davis: huge victory in ’71, two frustrating minorities for a decade followed. David Peterson: minority, majority, defeat. Bob Rae: third party in a minority, majority, defeat. Ontario Tories leading the polls in every election since 2003 leading up to the campaign, followed by bitter defeat in ’07, ’11, and ’14.

This election is also strange even by Ontario standards. The leader of the third party is consistently strong in personal approval. The premier trails her party by double digits in personal approval and has done so for more than a year.

The recently deposed opposition party leader trailed his party’s support in key target groups for many months, as well. This is almost unheard of. Leader approval almost always signals — eventually — shifts in partisan support. And the most recently elected leader “won” the title coming in second in both votes and seats in his own party.

None of this is normal.

So, what to watch for now that the “phoney war” is nearly over. Many of the old markers still apply: poised, competent Day 1 launch; well-executed surprise candidate or policy announcement; strong debate performance, crowd size and intensity.

These are far better indicators of likely success than the shallow, low-cost, small sample, pre-election horse race numbers that pollsters hand out for free to news organization, who together share a greater interest in marketing than prediction.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Which is also why the attention these poll stories receive drives seasoned campaign managers — purchasers of large volumes of high-cost, in-depth, huge sample-size, proven reliable data sets — to snarl and chew the curtains. Watch the campaign, not the horse race numbers, if you want to back a winner.

Robin V. Sears, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group, was an NDP strategist for 20 years.

Read more about: