At a meeting on Tuesday, council will decide whether to move ahead with a plan to spend up to $1.46 billion on six new GO stations.

The stops are what remains of Mayor John Tory’s 2014 campaign promise to create a heavy rail transit service called SmartTrack using existing GO lines. With a deadline to include the stations in the province’s transit plans and the October municipal election looming, there’s much at stake for Tory.

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But is the project being portrayed accurately and can council rely on the financing plan city staff have proposed? We look at the facts:

Is this the SmartTrack Tory promised on the campaign trail?

Tory’s plan has shrunk significantly from the version he pitched during his successful 2014 mayoral bid. At the time, he promised a service that would include 22 “new” stations, and a heavy rail spur to Pearson International Airport.

The version going before council has only six new stations. The spur to Pearson has been replaced with a plan to extend the Eglinton Crosstown LRT further west, which would operate independently of the rest of the service and it is not part of the plan being advanced at council Tuesday.

At a meeting of his executive committee last week, Tory defended the changes to SmartTrack, citing a projected ridership of 33 million annual trips by 2041 and saying it’s only natural that a major project evolve over time. “The bottom line is we’re going to have transit people are going to be riding on.”

Has the project gone over budget?

In an October 2016 report, city staff estimated the cost of the six new stations would be $1.25 billion, but noted the city would have to pay for any additional infrastructure that “deviates” from what would be required for a regular GO station.

Staff now estimate the total cost at up to $1.46 billion, which includes up to $268 million in additional spending for “city-initiated station requirements.” Those are components required to fit stations into Toronto’s “urban context,” such as a bus loop to allow for transfers to other transit.

Despite the additional expense, Tory maintains the project has stayed on budget. That’s because the latest staff report broke down the total cost into two sections: $1.19 billion for “base station infrastructure,” which is what is required for a simple GO station, and the additional $268 million.

Tory has described the additional $268 million in costs as “discretionary,” and argued the fact that the base infrastructure still falls under the original $1.25-billion projection means the stops will be “delivered for the budgeted amount.”

What are the service frequencies and fares that SmartTrack trains will run on?

Tory has said the stations will see trains every six to 10 minutes, and riders will be allowed to board using a TTC fare.

However, neither one is set in stone. Last month, the provincial Liberals pledged that fares for all GO Transit trips within Toronto will be reduced to just $3. That would mean a trip from “SmartTrack” stations would cost about the same as the TTC. However, the cheaper fares wouldn’t go into effect until next year and may not survive the provincial election in June.

Tory also pledged there would be no cost to transfer between the TTC and SmartTrack, but there are no immediate plans to implement such a policy.

The most detailed study by Metrolinx assumed train frequencies of up to 15 minutes at some SmartTrack stops, but the agency says it expects six- to 10-minute service is possible and should be in place by the time the stations are complete in 2025.

Has Tory kept his promise that SmartTrack “will not be financed by raising property taxes”?

Of the $1.46-billion cost, the city expects to pay $878 million, with the federal government contributing the rest.

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To pay the city’s share, the proposal before council is to use three sources: development charges, tax increment financing, and the City Building Fund.

With Tory’s backing, council established the fund in 2017 to raise money for transit and housing. It’s being generated through five successive years of 0.5-per-cent property tax increases, and once all of the increases are in place, the fund will generate roughly $74 million a year. Starting in 2025, about $18 million would be allocated from the fund every year for 30 years to pay for SmartTrack.

Although the fund is being created through property tax increases, Tory argues he has kept his promise because the City Building Fund was created to raise money for transit in general, “not specifically SmartTrack.”

Do the benefits of SmartTrack outweigh the costs?

Tory has said “SmartTrack will deliver $4 in economic and social benefits for every dollar spent on construction costs.”

The figures are from a March Metrolinx report that found building the six stops would cost $1.19 billion, and the resulting benefits would be $4.59 billion.

That analysis didn’t take into account the additional $268 million in station costs. It also showed the vast majority of the benefits would be derived from the two busiest stations: King-Liberty and East Harbour.

The expense of building the other four stations is actually expected to be greater than their benefits. Metrolinx has said it will continue working to improve the performance of the four less beneficial stops.

Can future development pay for part of the plan?

City officials say they can cover $292 million in costs using tax increment financing, which has never been used in Toronto on this scale. Essentially, the city would borrow money and pay back the debt using property tax revenue from new developments in areas designated TIF “zones.”

The city hired a firm called Strategic Regional Research Associates (SRRA) to estimate how much development could be expected.

Consultants who have since reviewed that work have noted several concerns with SRRA’s calculations, including “undocumented” methodology and potentially “out of date” numbers that could mean less revenue than expected.

The more the projections are off, the more the city will need to dip into existing property tax revenue, which is used to fund services across the city, to pay for the transit stops instead.

Critically, SRRA assumed office sizes similar to suburban spaces rather than those in dense urban settings where most of the stations would be located. Denser offices, which Ernst & Young said should be considered, could alone result in five to 9 per cent reduction in revenue compared to SRRA’s predictions.

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