The first post-election One News Colmar Brunton poll is out and despite forming Government, Labour has not received a boost in the polls.

In 1999 the incoming Labour Government got an 11% bump in the polls, as did the incoming National Government in 2008.

The lack of any boost to Labour is probably due to a combination of two factors. The first is that there was no clear vote for change as happened in 1999 and 2008. The second is they have had a pretty shambolic start to Government.

The party vote results are:

National 46% (+1.6% from election) Labour 39% (+2.1%) Greens 7% (+0.7%) NZ First 5% (-2.2%)

Toby Manhire at The Spinoff had written:

The National Party’s polling wizard Farrar and his allies will be hoping that the grudging sentiment that the party won the election yet is locked out of government lingers beyond Nick Smith and co. Just over 44% of voters ticked National. If they can hit 42% or better on Sunday, they’ll be thrilled.

Well at 46% I’d say thrilled is a good description. In 2008 Labour left office on 34% and the next ONCB poll had them down 6% on 28%. To leave office on 44% and be at 46% in the next poll is great.

Labour finished with an official election result just shy of 37%. Certainly they’ll expect to go higher. Anything under 40% will be a disappointment. Anything above National will be a relief. Anything over 45% will warrant champagne.

So a disappointment indeed for Labour. A deserved one I must say.

New Zealand First scored 7.2% in the election. Anything 6% or higher will be a good result on Sunday.

So not a good result for NZ First either. They are on the verge of being wiped out and at a time they should be on a honeymoon of goodwill.

The Greens, who are slightly less constrained in exercising independence by operating outside cabinet, had a white-knuckle campaign, and ended up making it over the threshold without a heap to spare. Their final result was 6.3%. They’ll be desperate to nudge up over 7%, 8% even, to restore a more stable-looking base.

Not a bad result for the Greens compared to the election result but worth recalling they almost always do worse in elections than the polls. Their final ONCB poll before the election was 8% and this poll (which now has 50% mobile phones) has them at 7%.

National of course can’t be complacent. This shows there is considerable goodwill remaining for National and Bill English. The challenge is to both show the failings of the new Government, but also remind people of a positive alternative.

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