Michael Matuella had eight strikeouts in six innings at Cal. (Shotgun Spratling)

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Matuella’s Injury Scrambles Draft Landscape

SEE ALSO:

• Meet Michael Matuella, Unlikely No. 1 Prospect

• Golden Spikes Spotlight: Michael Matuella

• Duke’s Matuella To Miss Start With Tightness

• Matuella Shows Progress Against Georgia Tech

In what represents another casualty in an increasingly tiresome string of arm injuries, news broke on Wednesday that Duke ace and potential first overall draft pick, righthander Michael Matuella, will undergo Tommy John surgery after a UCL tear was discovered in his right elbow. ESPN’s Keith Law first reported the news. This sort of news is unfortunately no longer surprising, but once again we’re left to ponder the question as to exactly what an elite pitching prospect going down in the middle of the spring will mean for this year’s draft.

First and foremost, Matuella’s situation is not the same as Jeff Hoffman’s or Erick Fedde’s last spring. Many people will be quick to point to those two names as examples of how Tommy John recipients can still go very high in the first round. While that is quite true, and the lack of impact talent at the top of the 2015 draft class is sure to still benefit Matuella, their situations are not at all the same.

Entering this spring, Matuella was still in many ways a mystery to the scouting community. He battled injuries last spring, and despite stringing together some eye popping performances, the 6-foot-6 righthander pitched just 58.1 innings in 2014. Because of the lack of work, scouts eagerly awaited to see what his summer performance might look like, be it with Team USA or in the Cape Cod League. But, after being diagnosed with spondylolysis, an issue that led to his lingering lat discomfort, it was decided that he’d be shut down for the summer.

In other words, the scouting world was denied the opportunity to see what was anticipated as the potential 1-1’s coming out party. Jeff Hoffman had the party in the Cape Cod League in 2013. Fedde did as well, and had the opportunity to pitch in front of scouting directors in a brief stint with Team USA as well. But heading into this spring, many high-ranking evaluators had yet to get their eyes on a player that was thought of as potentially the top player in the class. To say that’s highly unusual would be an understatement.

So, what does that type of uncertainty mean for the top of this year’s draft class? For now, it means a great deal of uneasiness. At his best last spring, Matuella worked at 94-98 mph with a 60 curveball and 55 changeup on the 20-80 scale, along with a shorter slider in the mid-80s. That type of stuff had yet to reemerge this spring, however, so it’s been to difficult to read exactly where the righthander’s stock might be. But the fact that the landscape is lacking in real alternatives for the title of top pitcher in the class was surely working in his favor.

Matuella was roughed up in his final outing before the news of his injury broke, surrendering five earned runs in 4.2 innings against Boston College on March 27. Scouts in attendance noted that Matuella was uncomfortable and struggled mightily with his command. But just a week prior, scouts were beginning to show optimism, as the Duke ace showed his best velocity of the spring, working at 92-96 mph as he turned in 6 2/3 strong innings against Pittsburgh.

There were snippets of Matuella’s brilliance this spring, including that start, but it was evident from start one that he was not quite the pitcher we glimpsed at his best in 2014. The good news in all of this, however, is that perhaps we now have an answer to why Matuella had not looked like the top-flight talent those who saw him in 2014 believed he to be.

Teams will not be able to select Matuella as confidently as the Blue Jays could when they took him Hoffman ninth overall. He doesn’t have those electrifying Cape Cod League outings in front of 40 scouts in his back pocket to fall back on. But the lack of depth in this class will likely still keep him very much in the mix in the first 10 picks.

It will indeed be a gamble for a pitcher who has never thrown 60 innings in a season. But if there is a reminder needed for the success rate of Tommy John surgery these days, look no further the aforementioned Hoffman, who found himself in a similar situation to Matuella last spring. Coincidentally, Hoffman pitched his first inning back from surgery in minor league spring training on Tuesday and worked at 95-98 mph with his fastball.

That’s precisely why a team will and should roll the dice on Matuella. Track record or not, he’s one of the most talented pitchers in the draft, and one year from now, he may prove to be very much worth the wait.