Todd Spangler

Detroit Free Press

Lead suggests Democratic efforts to define Republican nominee are working

Democratic Senate nominee leads despite Republican governor%27s re-election edge

Most say candidate%27s support of Obamacare either doesn%27t matter or works for them

WASHINGTON – U.S. Senate nominee Gary Peters and his Democratic allies appear to be succeeding at defining his Republican opponent for the voters, driving up Terri Lynn Land's unfavorability ratings and rebuilding what looks like a substantial lead with less than five weeks until Election Day.

In a new EPIC-MRA poll done for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and their outstate partners, Peters, a Democratic congressman from Bloomfield Township, regained a 9-point lead — 42%-33% — over Land, the Republican nominee and former Michigan secretary of state.

The EPIC-MRA poll surveyed 600 likely voters from Sept. 25-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Peters' margin matched his lead in EPIC-MRA's July poll. In August's poll that margin dropped to 6 points. Peters has led in almost every poll for months, though some of those leads have been within the margin of error. Some recent polls, however, have had him ahead by double digits.

"The fact that Peters is running this far above Land ... is significant," said Bernie Porn, pollster for EPIC-MRA in Lansing. "I think it can still change, but it is starting to solidify."

Land continued her campaign Thursday at a GOP rally in Livonia that included former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Equally worrisome for Land's campaign is that, with Nov. 4 fast approaching, and both sides ramping up attacks upon the other, 46% of respondents gave her an unfavorable rating — up from 34% in July — an indication Democrats may be succeeding in efforts to drive up negative perceptions of her.

Peters' unfavorable ratings were up, too — to 30% from 24% in July — but they were not as high as Land's. The two nominees were virtually tied in terms of voters with a favorable opinion of either, with 31% for Peters and 30% for Land.

The poll also indicated that Peters had opened up a wide, 53%-28% margin in metro Detroit, with double-digit leads in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties. Those counties accounted for about 40% of the statewide vote in the last two elections. And if Peters wins easily there — especially in Oakland and Macomb counties — it would be difficult for Land to make up the difference.

Peters' also appeared to be the beneficiary of voters willing to split their ballots between Republican Gov. Rick Snyder and the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee. Peters had the support of 16% of the voters backing Snyder statewide, while Land had only 6% of the support going to Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mark Schauer.

The Free Press reported Snyder with a 45%-39% lead over Schauer in the EPIC-MRA poll.

Unlike earlier polls by EPIC-MRA in the Senate race, this one asked respondents whether they planned to support a third-party candidate — without naming any — as a way to measure general satisfaction with the major party nominees. Although there are three third-party candidates on the ballot — Libertarian Jim Fulner, Richard Matkin of the U.S. Taxpayers Party and the Green Party's Chris Wahmhoff — none are expected to have much of an impact on the balloting.

Eleven percent of respondents said they would back an unnamed third-party candidate, though Porn said many of those will likely either gravitate toward the major party candidates or end up not voting. Fourteen percent of respondents overall said they were undecided or refused to answer.

Peters had a lead of 12% — 42%-30% — among women voters, down from the 49%-34% lead he held among women in August, but possibly due to the inclusion of third-party support. But he also led among men in the new poll, 42%-38%.

The poll also indicated that Republican efforts to use Peters' support of the Affordable Care Act — Obamacare to some — against him may be having somewhat less of an effect than they might have hoped.

More than half of respondents said it should be kept as is or tweaked to fix its problems. While 35% said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported it, 60% said it either wouldn't have any effect on their vote (34%) or would make them more likely to back that candidate (26%).

But Obamacare was clearly a problem for many like survey respondent George Lundin, a 79-year-old General Motors engineer living in Madison Heights. He said the Affordable Care Act — and President Barack Obama's statement that people could keep their doctors if they wanted to, which in some instances turned out not to be the case — "doesn't sit very well with me."

His support of Land was based largely on the fact that she's a Republican.

"The economy just went down hill when the Democrats had it (control), at least in Michigan," he said. "When you got a Republican governor, things started to turn around."

That view, however, may be swamped by voters who haven't elected a Republican U.S. senator in Michigan since 1994 and have gotten used to splitting tickets.

Respondent Nancy Elzinga, a 66-year-old social worker living in Monroe County's Lambertville, said she is a traditional Democrat who voted for Snyder four years ago and hasn't been "too disappointed." While he may get her vote again, she said, Land most likely won't — at least in part because of her perception that Land was opposed to the government rescue of General Motors and Chrysler.

"He (Snyder) was supportive of the auto bailout and Terri Lynn wasn't," she said.

Peters and his Democratic allies have been accusing Land of being against the bailout because in 2012 she supported Romney's position, which was against public financing for the automakers. She has recently said — for the first time — that she would have supported the 2008-09 bailout of the automakers.

Contact Todd Spangler at 703-854-8947 or at tspangler@freepress.com