Teachers are over-estimating the A Level grades of ethnic minority students by two or more grades because they want to boost their chances of going to university, a new UCAS study has suggested.

The disclosure emerged after new data showed the proportion of applicants achieving their best three predicted grades has been declining in recent years.

It also followed pressure from ministers to hold teachers to account to get their pupils to the best universities.

The study showed that applicants from Asian, Black, mixed or other ethnic backgrounds had a greater chance of missing their predicted grades by two or more grades.

This was as likely for applicants from disadvantaged areas and those with lower levels of GCSE attainment, UCAS said.

Researchers analysed 600,000 English 18 year old applicants between 2010 and 2015 with three or more Alevels.

Minority students

Schools use predicted grades to give an optimistic forecast of a student’s potential.

The report said: “Even when other factors like GCSE attainment are taken into account teachers seem to predict higher grades relative to final outcomes for applicants from disadvantaged areas, and applicants in the Asian, Black, mixed and other ethnic groups.”