Tax cuts are less than a week away for eager beavers who submit their returns as early as possible, from July 1.

Key points: ANZ expects the stage one tax cuts to add 0.6 per cent to household incomes, about a quarter of the Rudd stimulus payments

ANZ expects the stage one tax cuts to add 0.6 per cent to household incomes, about a quarter of the Rudd stimulus payments The bank's economists are tipping a 0.5 per cent boost to household consumption over the second half of 2019

The bank's economists are tipping a 0.5 per cent boost to household consumption over the second half of 2019 But they expect some of this spending to go on essential services and much to go on travel

The Federal Government's low and middle-income tax offset that is already legislated will result in a maximum return to taxpayers of $530, while those on $90,000 will end up $665 better off.

If and when stage one of the Government's additional tax cuts from this year's Budget are passed, that benefit is roughly doubled, with an offset of up to $1,080 for an individual.

Stage one of the tax package is the part for which there is consensus support across the Parliament, while it is stages two and particularly three which are generating controversy and may hold up the extra tax refunds announced in this year's Budget if the Government chooses not to split the package and cannot get enough Senate support for the whole thing.

$7 billion household budget boost

Assuming the topped-up stage one tax cuts do pass, ANZ's economics team estimates they will be worth just over $7 billion for households.

That is a boost of about 0.6 per cent to household incomes.

The 2008 stimulus payments gave a much bigger boost to household income, although they were one-off. ( Supplied: ANZ )

ANZ economist Adelaide Timbrell has compared this refund boost to the cash stimulus payments made by the Rudd government during the global financial crisis to try and determine how much of a boost they will give to retailers and service industries.

Ms Timbrell said the global financial crisis cash stimulus was much larger and worth about 2.8 per cent of household incomes.

Combined with plunging interest rates — the RBA cash rate fell from 7.25 per cent to 3 per cent in a matter of months — the stimulus had a dramatic effect on consumer behaviour.

"The handouts in 2008 led to the highest month-on-month growth in retail expenditure since 2001 (4.1 per cent in December 2008)," she observed.

"The second handout led to the second-strongest month-on-month growth rate since 2001 (2.6 per cent in March 2009)."

Ms Timbrell said the surge in sales experienced by retailers had not been seen since.

Retail posted its strongest sales growth since 2001 after the Rudd government's stimulus payments. ( Supplied: ANZ )

While the tax cuts people will see turn up in their refunds after July 1 are not likely to boost consumption by anywhere near that much, ANZ is expecting a 0.5 per cent boost to household consumption over the September and December quarters as people put their tax returns in and get bigger refunds.

Spending patterns have changed since 2009

Not only is the boost likely to be much smaller than 2008/09, Ms Timbrell said she expected it to be distributed differently.

The first round of Rudd stimulus spending found its way to electrical and household goods retailers, department stores, hardware and building supplies and recreational goods retailing.

The second round, in early 2009, was spent on smaller-ticket items such as footwear, clothing, recreational goods and department stores.

Hospitality and leisure activities also saw a strong bounce.

"The recreation and culture category (which includes recreational retailing and services like activities and events) saw strong growth in the December 2008 quarter (2.1 per cent) and June 2009 quarter (2.6 per cent)," Ms Timbrell noted.

"Hotels, cafes and restaurants showed very strong growth in the first half of 2009, as did liquor consumption."

While Ms Timbrell said she expected the boost from the latest stimulus to again be concentrated in retail and recreational services, but non-discretionary goods and services may see a bounce as well, because many of them have become more expensive, leading some people to delay essential purchases.

"We are more indebted and our non-discretionary expenses are higher; we spend more on travel and less on retail," she explained.

Consumers have increased their spending on travel much more than on retail goods. ( Supplied: ANZ )

"And this may affect how we spend, this time around.

"For example, pent-up demand for health services [such as dentist appointments] may take priority over discretionary goods this time around," she speculated.