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The rules have yet to be set and no candidates are formally in the race, but Peter MacKay and Kevin O’Leary are essentially tied in support for the Conservative Party of Canada leadership, a new poll suggests.

O’Leary, a bombastic businessman who has parlayed his strict capitalism into a media career on both sides of the border, openly mused last week about following Donald Trump’s lead and making the jump from reality TV to politics. MacKay, a long-time Cabinet minister under former leader Stephen Harper and one of the architects of the “unite the right” movement at the end of the last century, is also thought to be pursuing a bid.

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And both men would have a decent chunk of existing Conservative support if they jumped into the race, reveals a Mainstreet Research poll conducted last Friday for Postmedia.

The national survey of 4,937 Canadians included about 1,400 self-identified Conservatives and, it turns out, many would welcome O’Leary into the party fold. The survey found 25 per cent of respondents would support MacKay for leader, while 23 per cent would back O’Leary. Given that segment of the poll’s margin of error (2.32 per cent, 19 times in 20) that amounts to a statistical tie between MacKay and O’Leary.