Georgia Tech head coach Brian Gregory says the ACC doesn’t do a good enough job of promoting itself. Well, he may be onto something, considering there are two top-10 games this weekend and I don’t feel like I’ve heard a peep about it. It’s the first time in ACC history that’s ever happened. How is this not a bigger deal?!

Anyway, NC State gets a week or so off to lick its wounds after the Wake Forest debacle, and North Carolina should (please note the emphasis on SHOULD) have a relatively easy time with Boston College. So the spotlight turns immediately to Durham, for what should be a fantastic rematch between Duke and Notre Dame, and then later that night to Charlottesville, where No. 3 Virginia hosts its second top-10 opponent in a week.

We all like to poke fun at the whole idea of the ACC being a deep league a la SEC football, but what if….there’s some truth to that? Might be worth keeping an eye on as the regular season begins to wind down.

NO. 10 NOTRE DAME (21-3, 9-2) AT NO. 4 DUKE (19-3, 6-3)

Time: 1:00 p.m.

TV: WRAL-TV

#ANALYSIS

No one on Notre Dame’s roster is getting any taller, and Jahlil Okafor isn’t getting any worse at basketball. But no one on Duke’s roster has shown much of an indication in the last few weeks that they can check Jerian Grant. Or, you know, since the last time these two teams faced off. Notre Dame’s matchup problems will force you to adapt in some way, although Duke didn’t take Okafor out of the game down the stretch against the Irish. It was a close game, obviously, and had he (or any of Duke’s bigs) made their free throws, maybe it has a different outcome. But he didn’t. Duke’s going to have to do something, whether it’s a tweak or an adjustment or whatever, to try to slow down Notre Dame’s guards on the drive and make sure they switch everything up top or something, because if Notre Dame gets into a free-wheeling, unimpeded offense, they’re going to be impossible to stop unless Duke gets lucky. Or unless Duke gets hot (certainly possible).

PTP-ERS

Zach Auguste. At 6-10, he’s almost literally holding down the middle for Notre Dame all on his own, and doing an admirable job of it. Notre Dame may have struggled with Okafor in terms of stopping him, but Auguste didn’t struggle to score on him or whomever was guarding him, finishing with 14 point son 6-of-11 shooting, seven rebounds, two assists and a block. He is 13-of-21 in the last two games, and he’s going to need to keep being aggressive in this one like he was in the first meeting.

Matt Jones. In games like these, it’s always someone unexpected who tends to step up and sway it one way or the other. That could be Jones in this game, as the sophomore - already climbing steadily to the top of the list of Mike Krzyzewski’s favorite players - could be that guy. Since Rasheed Sulaimon’s dismissal, he’s averaged 22 minutes, 10 points and shot 8-of-18 from the field (2-of-7 from three). And he just has a knack for making big plays at key times, not to mention that he’s Duke’s best perimeter defender.

TEMPO-FREE

Duke scored 35 points in the fourth “quarter” (final 10 minutes) against Virginia, winning that stanza 35-18. Duke’s combined score in its first four ACC road games in the final 10 minutes was 89-77 in favor of the opponent, and Duke had totaled just 25 points in the final 10 minutes of its previous two road games combined (at Louisville and at Notre Dame). … Speaking of closing out - Duke “won” the fourth quarter at home against Georgia Tech 16-13, to mark the first time it has outscored an ACC opponent at home in the final 10 minutes this season. … In the last six ACC wins, Jerian Grant has accounted for 82 of his teams’ 148 made field goals (with a bucket himself or an assist). In the two losses in league play, Grant has accounted for just 15 Notre Dame’s 46 made field goals. His high in ACC play was accounting for 21 of 29 made buckets (nine field goals, 12 assists).

NARRATIVES

Notre Dame Win: Oh hellllloooooo there Notre Dame my your offense is looking good

Notre Dame Loss: Losing at Cameron? Hey, it happens.

Duke Win: What’s that you said about our defense we couldn’t hear you with all of those top-10 wins in our ears

Duke Loss: Two home games, now, Duke? TWO? What is this, 2007?

PREDICTION

Duke, 89-82. This one will be fun.

NO. 12 NORTH CAROLINA (17-6, 7-3) AT BOSTON COLLEGE (9-12, 1-8)

Time: 3:00 p.m.

TV: WRAL-TV

#ANALYSIS

Well, North Carolina, here you go. You’ve had some time off to rest, heal some guys up and maybe get some practice time in so you don’t throw ridiculous passes nowhere near a teammate. And that’s the biggest thing to watch in this one for the Tar Heels - turnovers. So many of them have been unforced, and they’ve now turned it over on 20% or more of their possessions for four of their last six games and three in a row (two losses). The only games Boston College have won in 2015 featured teams that turned it over 20% of the time or more. So, yeah. I would not do that, North Carolina. Stay patient in the halfcourt, work for good shots and that should be good enough. Oh, and do it for 40 minutes. Not just like 20 or 25.

PTP-ERS

Marcus Paige. He didn’t play well down the stretch against Louisville, and what do you know, North Carolina lost! Then when Malcolm Brogdon was switched on him against Virginia, he went nearly invisible for almost 30 minutes of game action. So he wasn’t good, he wasn’t bad - he just wasn’t….anything. Last year, Paige had 21 points in North Carolina’s first ACC win of the season on 7-of-10 shooting. Boston College’s roster is basically gone. But hey, who knows?

Olivier Hanlan. One player who isn’t gone is Olivier Hanlan. And he attempted to beat Notre Dame by himself on Wednesday night, finishing with an ACC-high 28 points on 11-of-16 shooting in 40 minutes; his 156 ORtg was his highest of the season, not just ACC play. He’s carrying quite the load, but he’s settling in - he has 18 assists and six turnovers in the last three games in addition to, you know, the scoring. North Carolina has struggled some this year with opposing scoring guards.

TEMPO-FREE

Here’s a stat for you - in ACC play, North Carolina ranks third in three-point percentage (38.2%), and that’s higher than it ranks in TWO-point percentage (49.7%, 5th). … The Tar Heels are still on pace to have the highest turnover percentage since 2010, but as bad as the turnover problem has seemed lately, Carolina’s overall turnover percentage (18.6%) is WORSE than its conference-only percentage (18.1%). …. Boston College knows something about turnover problems. The Eagles have turned it over on 20% or more of their possessions for two straight games now, and 19% or more in three of the last four.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win: Meh.

North Carolina Loss: Carolina fans won’t even be able to stop watching the game without somehow committing a turnover

Boston College Win: At least you’ll have pleased Luke Kuechly

Boston College Loss: After the last few years, this has to be Boston College fans by now anyway, right?

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 79-68. The Tar Heels have generally taken care of business on the road this season, the second-half debacle at Louisville notwithstanding. Also, Boston College is not good.

____

WAKE FOREST (11-12, 3-7) AT GEORGIA TECH (10-12, 1-9)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: RSN

#ANALYSIS

Wake Forest on the road in ACC play! A Georgia Tech team that can’t get out of its own way late in games! What could possibly go wrong? These are two teams particularly adept at giving up late leads and surrendering momentum with silly plays, so both of them are going to have to minimize silly turnovers, and the team that can win the boards will likely win this one. In the first meeting, Wake rebounded 46.9% of its misses while Georgia Tech was at just 31.6% on the offensive glass. Georgia Tech was kept off the boards by Duke on Wednesday night (especially in the second half) and that was likely the difference in yet another close loss.

PTP-ERS

Codi Miller-McIntyre. Well, he’s playing great lately. But he didn’t play great in the first matchup, scoring five points on 2-of-4 shooting in 24 minutes (he had four assists and three turnovers, and dealt with foul trouble). Since that game, though, he’s hit at least 19 points in five of six games and is averaging 20.8 on 52.4% shooting. In the last two games, it’s 21 points on 13-of-16 (!!) shooting. He’s also gotten to the line at least 10 times in three of the last five games. When he plays well, so does his team, usually - the only blowout loss in that span was against North Carolina. When he doesn’t? Welp.

Demarco Cox. The Ole Miss transfer? Yeah, he’s big. He’s 6-8, 276 pounds, and he’s likely a big reason that in the first meeting between these teams, Devin Thomas had seven turnovers (though he also had 17 and 14, so). Cox is going to have to bother Thomas while also continuing to be a force on the offensive end. He had 14 and seven in the first game, and he’s been playing very well lately, averaging 10.7 and 7.0 boards. He’s shot a lot, and not always well - he’s 14-of-34 - but he can get to the offensive boards and his physical presence is a lot to deal with.

TEMPO-FREE

Picking out a few of Georgia Tech’s most heartbreaking finishes, including the final two minutes of regulation of seven ACC losses (and the final two of overtime against NC State, too), Georgia Tech has 35 points in those 38 critical possessions. There are five missed lay-ups, a missed dunk, ill-advised fouls, missed foul shots and five turnovers included in that stretch. But it’s all been brutal, and yes, just a few possessions away….but alas. … Wake Forest had an eFG% of 55.9% in the first meeting with Georgia Tech on Jan. 10, and it took until the Deacs’ last game on Feb. 3 against NC State to pass that (a 66.7% eFG%, the highest for Wake since March 12 of last year against Notre Dame).

NARRATIVES

Wake Forest Win: AN ACC ROAD WIN!

Wake Forest Loss: Hey a great win over NC State and now this

Georgia Tech Win: OMG we won one of these close ones I can’t feel my face

Georgia Tech Loss: Whatever. Add it to the list.

PREDICTION

Georgia Tech, 71-68. I believe that Wake Forest will win an ACC road game. I believe that Georgia Tech will come out on the right end of one of these close ones. Unfortunately, both can’t happen at once.

FLORIDA STATE (12-11, 4-6) AT VIRGINIA TECH (9-13, 1-8)

Time: 3:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Buzz Williams has done some voodoo in Blacksburg to even make this team competitive, and for the most part, they’ve either pushed or beaten teams on their level - and even some above their level. These two teams have played once already, and that game was one of the rare exceptions as Florida State essentially blew out the Hokies. But it’s a road game for the Seminoles, who are coming off of one of their worst games of the year offensively in a loss to Clemson. So…who knows?

PTP-ERS

Devon Bookert. He’s the one who got the Seminoles going in the first meeting, knocking down 4-of-7 three’s (FSU, one of the worst three-point shooting teams in Division I, hit 8-of-16). He’s really FSU’s only good three-point shooter. He’s hit 5-of-10 three’s in the last three games but he’s got 13 assists to 17 turnovers in the last seven games, and he had no assists to four turnovers in the loss to Clemson, not to mention fouling out in 33 minutes. In the last two games, he’s overall shooting 3-of-10 from the floor. So he’s going to need to make shots.

Jalen Hudson. The 6-5 freshman hadn’t seen a ton of minutes in ACC play, but he saw a season-high 30 against Syracuse and scored a career-high 18 points on 7-of-11 shooting (2-of-4 from three), adding seven rebounds, three assists and a steal. He’s played pretty well when he’s gotten extended time, but that hasn’t been all that common. Maybe he’ll have earned some more time in this one and can turn it into something.

TEMPO-FREE

In the first meeting between these two teams, Florida State rebounded 51.7% of its missed shots, still the highest OR% allowed by Virginia Tech in ACC play. Since then, the Hokies have only allowed one opponent over 45% and just four over 40% in the seven games since. … In the loss to Clemson, Florida State’s OE was 85.3 (its second-worst of the year) and had an eFG% of 39.3%, its worst mark since November 23 in a double-digit loss to Massachusetts.

NARRATIVES

Florida State Win: I mean….great?

Florida State Loss: I know they’ve proven hard to beat, FSU…but have you SEEN their roster?

Virginia Tech Win: Buzz working that magic again.

Virginia Tech Loss: A winnable home game that you lost? Oh well.

PREDICTION

Virginia Tech, 74-71. Buzz has some magic cooked up for this one. Maybe he’s cooking something inside his shirt collar and that’s why he sweats so much. It would explain a lot.

SYRACUSE (15-7, 6-3) AT PITTSBURGH (15-8, 4-5)

Time: 4:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN2

#ANALYSIS

A battle between two teams that have taken themselves out of postseason play! Wait, Pittsburgh didn’t decide to ban itself from the postseason this year? Then why did they lose at Virginia Tech and play such an awful non-conference schedule? I kid. Seriously, Pitt is technically still alive for postseason play (I guess), but Syracuse isn’t. And because of this self-imposed ban, Syracuse did what it does best - made a t-shirt(http://www.nunesmagician.com/2015/2/5/7987887/syracuse-tshirt-postseason-ban-mannys-even-this). STAY STRONG, GUYS! We’ll all be sure to have a Moon Over My Hammy in your honor while we’re in Greensboro. Since Denny’s is the only restaurant there. I’d love to actually analyze this game. But if Jim Boeheim isn’t going to be all in, then why should I?

PTP-ERS

Michael Gbinije. The so-called Big 3 for Syracuse have been mostly a Big 2 in terms of consistent play as Trevor Cooney has taken all of the shots and Rakeem Christmas has been a man in the middle, but Gbinije hasn’t always been as big of a factor in the games. Well, he was against Virginia Tech, scoring 18 points (his most in ACC play) on 5-of-9 shooting (and 6-of-10 from the foul line, his most attempts this season) to go with seven assists and four steals. He’s going to have to be that kind of a presence for Syracuse to have much of a shot; Cooney and Christmas can’t do everything and they need someone who can make plays on the drive.

Sheldon Jeter. This one is just for my Syracuse friends, who seem to think that they’re more of a victim of Random Dude X than other teams, particularly after UNC’s Nate Britt rained 3’s on them last Monday for a career-high 17 points. I scoffed at this. And then Virginia Tech’s Jalen Hudson, who had 36 points in ACC play, had a career-high 18 in a career-high 30 minutes in the near-win at Syracuse. So maybe there’s something to that. Jeter would be a classic example of this - the sophomore transfer has 12 points in the last eight games (though he did have an 11-point game at Boston College); he’s shooting 8-of-21 in ACC play. So he’s applicable here.

TEMPO-FREE

This is why I’m angry with you, Pitt - you had a 122.4 offensive efficiency rating against Notre Dame in an improbable win. It was the second-highest Notre Dame had allowed all year. But they had just a 108.9 in their next game against Bryant. Here are the OE’s posted by Bryant’s three opponents leading into that game: 109.9 (LIU Brooklyn), 139.1 (Sacred Heart), 117.7 (St. Francis PA) and 111.2 (Robert Morris). Stop. … Syracuse has started shooting the ball a bit better recently, which is a good thing, since they’re getting a lower percentage of their own missed shots. They haven’t rebounded over 30% of their misses in the last four games and that’s after doing it in 15 of their first 18 games.

NARRATIVES

Syracuse Win: YOU DID IT, Syracuse! You triumphed through all the adversity!

Syracuse Loss: Ah, we love you, Jimmy Boeheim. You’re the heel the ACC needs.

Pittsburgh Win: Look at you, on a winning streak and stuff. I think I’ll remember the Bryant win the most.

Pittsburgh Loss: Well if this isn’t the Pitt-iest thing ever.

PREDICTION

Syracuse, 65-60. SYRACUSE STRONG, amirite?!

NO. 9 LOUISVILLE (19-3, 7-2) AT NO. 3 VIRGINIA (20-1, 8-1)

Time: 7:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Hmm, so, a Louisville team that has shown some…iffy offensive tendencies at times going up against a Virginia team that makes you work and pay for every mistake? On paper, this should be an easy one to pick. But when Louisville is on offensively, they look like they could beat anyone - including the Cavaliers. Because the thing is with Louisville is that the Cardinals will defend. They may go through scoring droughts, but they will defend. And they will try to speed up the Cavaliers with their traps and pressure. The matchup zone could give Virginia some problems, too. But other than that, Virginia just has to get defensive rebounds, take care of the ball and do Virginia things, and hope Louisville doesn’t get red-hot.

PTP-ERS

Terry Rozier. To say the sophomore guard is on a hot streak is putting it mildly. He’s averaging 23.3 points in the last three games on 33-of-68 shooting; the only anomaly in the set being his 6-of-20 performance against North Carolina (he still finished with 22 because he was 8-of-12 from the foul line). He’ll get nothing easy against Virginia’s perimeter defense, though, and he’s going to have to either make some ridiculous shots (which he can certainly do) or stay patient and get the best look he can. Or draw some fouls. Or all of those things.

Anthony Gill. Virginia’s junior forward didn’t get the start against North Carolina, and he’d been struggling of late, not quite providing the same scoring punch he had been. He hit double digits in 10 of Virginia’s first 14 games, but he’d done it just once in the five games headed into UNC. And he’d been shooting 22-of-51 in ACC play - not terrible, but not at the level he was. At UNC, though, he had 13 points (his most since Dec. 30) on 6-of-8 shooting, adding seven rebounds, a block and a steal. And that was against a pretty big and talented front line. Louisville won’t make it easy to score in the paint, but he has a real knack for it and needs to stay “on” for Virginia.

TEMPO-FREE

Louisville has played just six games all year at a pace of less than 65 possessions; the Cardinals are 4-2 in those games and 15-1 in every other (faster) game. Virginia has been at 60 or below in 14 of its 21 games, and has played just one game with more than 65 possessions all year. In the six slower games Louisville has played, they’ve posted an OE over 100 just twice - a 125.4 against Virginia Tech in a double-digit win, and a 106.2 against Miami on Tuesday in their third-slowest game of the year … North Carolina finished with a 99.4 OE against Virginia, its fourth-worst mark of the year and a pretty bad mark for most teams. And yet it was the sixth-HIGHEST mark a Virginia opponent has had this year.

NARRATIVES

Louisville Win: Well hellllllllo Louisville

Louisville Loss: Just going a little too fast there, Louisville.

Virginia Win: Back in business, baby.

Virginia Loss: Just hope it doesn’t play out like last time, I guess?

PREDICTION

Virginia, 66-61. Think this one will be fun. But just think the Cavaliers are too much. Louisville will make a late push, though, that might make the partisan crowd at the JPJ a little nervous.

SUNDAY

CLEMSON (14-8, 6-4) AT MIAMI (14-8, 4-5)

Time: 6:30 p.m.

TV: ESPNU

#ANALYSIS

Clemson is on a four-game ACC winning streak, its longest under head coach Brad Brownell. No, seriously. And Miami is, um…not doing that. They’ve lost three in a row, including getting annihilated by Georgia Tech and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against FSU. Honestly, Miami is going to have to hope that shots fall from the perimeter because Clemson is not going to give them anything easy. And they’re going to have to defend, because they’ve allowed an eFG% of over 50% in three straight games now. Clemson, meanwhile, is going to need to keep doing what it’s doing - plus make shots, of course - and for the love of god, don’t turn it over. At NC State and at FSU, they had a turnover percentage of 18.7% and 21.3%, respectively. Can’t do that.

PTP-ERS

Miami’s guards. Yeah, I’m going with both of them here. We all know that Angel Rodriguez is struggling. Manu Lecomte, though, isn’t playing that much better - since scoring 23 at Duke, he has 27 points in the last six games combined on 9-of-25 shooting. He was 5-of-10 at Duke. He’s also attempted just three foul shots in the six games since (he had 10 at Duke). Rodriguez, though? Eesh. He’s 11-of-57 since Duke (where he was 8-of-15) and he has 44 points, 17 of which have come at the line. In the last three games - all losses - he’s been real bad, scoring 14 total points on 5-of-28 shooting (2-of-5 from the line) with nine assists, seven turnovers and nine fouls. It got so bad that Jim Larranaga had to pull him. Miami can’t win without them, particularly Rodriguez. It just can’t.

TEMPO-FREE

Speaking of that winning streak, it’s Clemson’s longest such ACC streak since 1997. And Brownell’s teams have tended to start a bit slower and finish strong. In 2011, Clemson started 2-3 in ACC play and went 7-4 after that; the next year, they started 3-6 and finished with a 4-2 kick. The 2013 team was the exception (5-7 start, 0-6 finish) but last year’s team started 6-6 and finished 4-2. This year’s group got to 2-4 in the ACC and have now won four in a row. … After a win over Syracuse on January 24, Miami had an OE over 100 in seven straight games. They’ve been below that mark for three straight now (all losses), including three of their worst six performances all year.

NARRATIVES

Clemson Win: Ladies and gentlemen, meet Clemson, the hottest team in the ACC.

Clemson Loss: All that winning was confusing and a little scary and you probably got tired

Miami Win: Oh hey Miami you’re back

Miami Loss: So, let’s get this straight. You win at Florida. You win at Duke. Like, by a lot. You almost win at Notre Dame. And then you lose four in a row, three to teams you should beat?

PREDICTION

Clemson, 59-54. Hard to imagine Miami will keep playing this badly. But I can only say that so many times, so.

Last week: 6-8 (6-8 ACC)

Overall: 45-20 (44-20 ACC)