I want to restate this because it is an opinion I believe in firmly: Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson won his title fight against Jon Jones.

While Jones proved he was the better fighter overall (adjusting to and exploiting all of the titanic Swede’s weaknesses in the fourth and fifth rounds) for the first three rounds Gustafsson made the GoAT contender look truly lost.

Many people found Jones’s subsequent defense against Texeira nonsensical and his alleged waiting for the winner between Gustafsson and Cormier as running from the single greatest threat he’d ever faced.

Then Gustafsson’s predictability got him knocked out by Anthony Johnson while Cormier was picked apart by Jones. Now we are left with two “almost had it” fighters duking it out over who’s second best to Jon Jones. Okay fine technically Daniel Cormier is the champion, so is it Gustafsson’s turn to wear the belt?

A Man Who Circles, A Man Who Does Not.

Daniel Cormier is arguably the best light heavyweight fighter in the UFC, and he deserves to wear the interim belt; he’s easily the most complete fighter there behind Jones. Yet it was Gus was able to give the exponentially tougher fight to Jones for pretty much one huge reason: Lateral movement.

Strikes that operate on a direct line like the two Jones specialties, the front kick and straight, are prone to whiff on an opponent who circles. Whereas Cormier found punches and kicks slamming into his midsection as he tried to get close enough to attack Jones, Gus was able to skip merrily around the champion and pepper him with long punches. Hell, he was able to dodge one of the champion’s spinning kicks and take him down.

Now Cormier, with an adorable reach of 72 inches, is no stranger to overcoming a disadvantage.

Antonio Silva, Josh Barnett, Patrick Cummins and Anthony Johnson all held sizable reach advantages but all of them found themselves on the receiving end of a one sided beating. Yet the Olympian was frequently unable to catch Jones as the latter slammed kicks and punches and then circled out. One only needs to watch Gus move to understand why this is a legitimate concern.

Watch him, even after getting “cornered” (as best as one can in an octagon) by Johnson, quickly fighting and circling out.

Astute readers/dicks will point out that Gustafsson was knocked out in that fight, and that brings me to the next point.

Lateral movement is, in turn, very vulnerable to strikes coming from the same side that the fighter is moving towards. Their movement amplifies the power of the strike and because they are moving laterally and not necessarily away, there’s a good chance they’ll eat the strike. Gustafsson in particular has shown to be vulnerable to kicks as he circles, in the Johnson fight he circled into a glancing switch kick that set up Rumble’s trademark flurry.

But Cormier’s range and real lack of kicks means that he’s going to have a LOT of trouble catching Gustafsson. When the towering Swede begins circling, how is Cormier supposed to stop him? The overhand right that gave so many fighters trouble barely glanced Jones and won’t fare much better against Gus while in turn the Swede is so accustomed to opponents trying to close the distance that he is expert in ripping off clinches.

The Best Wrestler the Division Has Ever Seen.

Daniel Cormier isn’t just one of the best wrestlers the light heavyweight division has ever seen; he’s THE best. I know many people would defer to Jon Jones but Jones was simply an excellent wrestler whose dominance was augmented by his reach and tools on the feet. Cormier on the other hand is pure, Olympic caliber grappling dynamite.

Josh Barnett was larger, more experienced, and arguably the best non-BJJ based submission fighter in mixed martial arts right now when he fought Daniel Cormier in the Strikeforce Grand Prix Final. Cormier cared very little for his opponent’s credentials.

Being tall in the UFC has several important advantages. Chances are your reach is longer, your stride is longer, your opponent must shorten their effective reach to touch your chin and you can avoid a large number of strikes simply by leaning back or rolling with a punch. But where height becomes a real disadvantage is when grappling.

Wrestlers like to get in on people’s hips. The solution to that is sprawling aka slamming your hips down to the floor on top of said wrestler. Tall people have their hips higher off the ground. They have a greater distance to get their hips to the ground.

Do the math.

Gustafsson has evolved his defense quite a bit since being submitted by Phil Davis, but he’s never really fought a great wrestler since then (Jones was content to strike). It should be noted that even Shogun Rua came close to taking down Gus on a few occasions during their fight. While Gus has proven adept at getting back up once grounded it’ll be interesting to see what Cormier does when he gets his hands on him.

Is a Jab Enough?

If there’s one thing we learned about Cormier in his second title fight, it was that he had a CHIN. He took far more substantial connections than Gus did against Johnson yet came out relatively unfazed.

That’s not to say Alexander Gustafsson doesn’t have power; in the UFC alone he has four finishes with each being set up from a standing strike. But while Gustafsson has the best hands in the light heavyweight division and arguably the best jab in the UFC his knockouts are more from an accumulation of damage rather than a single, earth shattering strike (his knee against Manuwa being an exception).

Jones was able to stop Cormier from advancing by putting an obstacle between them: his limbs. Walking into a straight punch or kick feels like running into a counter top; relatively hard, painful and unmovable. While Gus is easily the superior boxer, his punches simply utilize his range rather than maintaining it (he’s more reliant on footwork for that).

I wonder how long his scalpel-like jab will be able to keep Cormier at bay. Certainly he’ll do better than Johnson who insisted on an overhand punch against a shorter opponent or Dan Henderson who moved like he was out of TRT (oh yeah, I forgot) but Cormier is nothing if not relentless. If he’s more willing to fire out his straight and move his leg kicks up to Cormier’s body we’d have something to talk about but as of now his distance weapon is the jab.

And I don’t know if it’s enough to stop the coconut headed champion from walking through them.

Prediction: Daniel Cormier is the better fighter but Gustafsson is a nightmare match up for him.

The Swede can move his feet like a ballerina and make full use of his reach advantage. Yes I have no doubt that if Cormier found his chin even once the fight would swing completely but to catch a fast, circling opponent with a 7” reach advantage is no joke. Plus Gus has a razor sharp uppercut which is the absolute bane of short infighters.

The match will even out as both fighters tire in the championship rounds but I expect Gus to be able to cruise to a victory from an early read.

Gustafsson via unanimous decision.