Between now and the end of the 2017 NFL season, you’ll hear a lot about the "Super Bowl Hangover" in regards to the Patriots and the Falcons. Experts will talk about how both teams are tired from having played a longer season than anyone else and that this means they’ll perform worse next year. They will say that you shouldn’t expect either team to make a repeat appearance in the big game because of the amount of luck it takes to get there. I wanted to take a deeper look at this saying to see just how much validity it has. To do this, I started by analyzing the records of every team to make a Super Bowl and then compared them to their records the following season. I also analyzed how likely each team was to make the playoffs, win their division, and make or win the Super Bowl and compared them to playoff teams in general.

Part I: The Numbers

First, let’s take a look at the data of how well teams do in their Super Bowl and hangover seasons. These teams win about 78% of their games, finishing on average with just over 12.5 wins per season in years that they make the Super Bowl. This drops to a winning percentage of 65% and only around 10.5 wins just a year later, amounting to a drop-off of slightly more than 2 wins in a team’s hangover season. This seems to answer the original question raised: do teams suffer a "hangover" and have a worse record a year removed from appearing in the Super Bowl? Yes, they do. However, let’s dig deeper. It makes sense that good teams will get worse the next year via simple regression to the mean, but are there other factors at work here?

I wanted to investigate whether there is a difference between teams that win and lose the Super Bowl the following year. When this split is introduced, there is a clear but minimal distinction between the two categories. Super Bowl winners have better records on average both in their Super Bowl and hangover years, and losers get marginally worse the next season. This difference is not significant, amounting to just .28 wins. However, I felt that the implementation of unrestricted free agency in 1992 would have a significant impact on the success of a team from year to year, and that this event was worth introducing as a split in the data. When introduced, it shows a large distinction between post-Super Bowl success in the pre- and post-free agency eras.

Since unrestricted free agency began in 1992, Super Bowl winners have fared much better than losers in their hangover season. This difference is substantial, measuring in at a discrepancy of almost 2 full wins. Super Bowl winners are more likely to hold off the inevitable regression to the mean and stay at double-digit wins, while losers decline much faster. The data also illuminated another interesting stat; Super Bowl losers actually fared better than victors before free agency. While the advent of a free agent market offers explanations for why those that failed in the big game may be unable to retain or add important players, no such reason exists for why Super Bowl losers won half a game more than winners in each team’s subsequent season before players could freely move between teams.

This graphic breaks down this difference in terms of both win differential and win percentage differential. It clearly shows the reversal of fortune for both sides after unrestricted free agency entered the NFL.

While wins are the main metric used to determine the success of a football team, they are not the only one. I decided to compare how Super Bowl winners and losers fared compared to teams that made the playoffs in other measures of success: repeating a playoff appearance, winning the division, and making or winning the Super Bowl.

What I found was that simply advancing to the Super Bowl improves a team’s chances of making the playoffs or winning the division the following year when compared to other playoff teams. However, Super Bowl winners are more likely than both losers and playoff teams to advance to or win the big game again the next season, with the chances of a Super Bowl loser winning a championship the next year dipping below those of a playoff team. In fact, a Super Bowl loser has only won the following year twice, with both occurrences happening in back to back years. Dallas lost Super Bowl V before winning Super Bowl VI over Miami the next year, and then Miami won Super Bowl VII to conclude their undefeated season. Another note is that in every single situation in the graphic above, a team is more likely to achieve any of these goals than if random luck decided.

Let’s return again to the original question: is the Super Bowl Hangover a real occurrence? While the data shows that it affects a team’s performance in wins and losses, it also shows that this effect doesn’t translate to whether a team makes the playoffs. In fact, teams that made the Super Bowl are more likely to make the playoffs or win their division in their hangover season than other playoff teams from the year before. However, there is a pronounced difference in both win percentage and postseason performance between teams that win and lose the Super Bowl, especially since free agency has been implemented. I would say that in today’s NFL, the Super Bowl Hangover is very real for teams that lose the Super Bowl. However, despite also hurting the records of Super Bowl winners, they still end up being more likely to attain the greatest measure of success in the NFL: another Lombardi Trophy.

The full data can be viewed here.

Part II: The Teams

For the next part of this project, I wanted to look at the teams that were outliers in their hangover seasons to discover what it was that made them either improve or fall off.

1972 Dolphins

In 1971, the Dolphins achieved a 10-3-1 record in the regular season before falling to Dallas in the Super Bowl. Going into 1972, the roster remained almost entirely untouched. However, the result of the season changed dramatically. The 1972 Dolphins had the best season in the modern NFL, finishing with a 14-0 record and then winning Super Bowl VII to complete their perfect season. Injury to starting QB Bob Griese in week 5 did not phase the team, and backup Earl Morral was more than capable of picking up where Griese left off. Morral would finish the team’s regular season and start Miami’s first two playoff games before handing the reins back to Griese in time for the Super Bowl. The biggest factor for the change in regular season record from 1971 to 1972 can be found when examining Miami’s strength of schedule. While the ’71 Dolphins faced an easy schedule, it got even easier the next season. In 1972, they only played two teams in the regular season that had winning records and had the second easiest schedule of any team that year.

1982 49ers

The 1981 49ers are most famous for "The Catch" by Dwight Clark to win the NFC Championship. The team cruised to a 13-3 record that season en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl, a 26-21 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the 1982 49ers would finish a measly 3-6, a difference of .479 in winning percentage from the previous season. The most obvious reason for the drop off can be found in the fact that the team only played 9 games due to a players strike. This severely disrupted team unity, with players falling on both sides of the issue, and the midseason disruption kept players out of their routines. Some players returned to their offseason drug use during the strike, hampering their play once the season resumed. These distractions only added to the disruptions that their new-found fame caused. Right tackle Keith Fahnhorst added that trying to win another Super Bowl seemed incredibly daunting. "I can remember in training camp last year, watching the highlight film of '81 and thinking about how we won all those games, and how we have to start all over from scratch,'' he said. ''It was almost too much to comprehend.'' On the field, the 49ers suffered from injuries to key players, including DE Dwaine Board and rookie OT Bubba Paris. They also posted a 1-5 record in games decided by a possession or less. If just a couple more bounces had gone their way, the 1982 49ers would have had a winning record and could have made the playoffs in the strike-shortened season. Instead, the team was unable to overcome obstacles on and off the field and would win only one third of their games.

1987 Giants

Like the 1981 49ers, the 1986 Giants captured their franchise’s first Super Bowl after dominating the regular season with a 14-2 record. Unfortunately, the ’87 Giants suffered the same fate as the ’82 49ers, falling below .500 and missing the playoffs in a strike shortened season. While the 1982 strike shortened the season to nine games, the 1987 stoppage only cancelled one week. However, the players still held out and were replaced by talent from other professional leagues. As a result, four different QB’s started games for the Giants, with starter Phil Simms playing in just 9 games. A whopping twenty-eight different players recorded either a rush or reception for the team. On their way to a disappointing 6-9 record, the Giants were just 3-4 in one possession games. The roster disruption caused by the strike combined with the inability of the team to play to the level they had the previous year produced one of the worst seasons under Bill Parcells.

1989 49ers

The 1989 49ers were one of the few teams to improve significantly the year after winning the Super Bowl, improving from 10-6 to 14-2. San Francisco won back to back Super Bowls, capturing Super Bowl XXIII after Joe Montana led the team down the field, hitting John Taylor in the endzone to win the game less than a minute left to defeat Cincinnati 20-16, then dominating Denver 55-10 in one of the biggest routs in Super Bowl history. This dramatic improvement was despite losing Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh who retired after Super Bowl XXIII. Joe Montana would be the key for the 49ers to repeat in 1989, completing over 70% of his passes and throwing 26 touchdowns to only 8 interceptions. The receiving duo of Jerry Rice and John Taylor was spectacular, with Rice notching 1483 yards and 17 touchdowns, leading the league in both categories, and Taylor contributing 1077 yards and 10 touchdowns, both career highs. The offense would lead the league in both points scored and yards gained, while the defense finished 3rd and 4th respectively in each category. This offensive explosion, combined with a slightly easier strength of schedule and a defense that allowed fewer points despite giving up more yards and forcing less turnovers than the year before, led to a dramatic improvement and a fourth Super Bowl title for the 49ers.

1999 Broncos

John Elway finished his career with back to back Super Bowl wins before retiring after the 1998 season. His presence with the Broncos would be sorely missed, and the team would fall from a 14-2 record in 1998 to just 6-10 in 1999. His replacement, Brian Griese, would complete only 57.7% of his passes while throwing for 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his first season as a starter. Hall of Fame RB Terrell Davis would then get injured just 4 games into the season, leaving the offense without its two biggest weapons from the previous year’s Super Bowl team. The defense would maintain its performance, but the offense could no longer sustain the elite productivity it had reached the previous season. Their schedule did them no favors, as they faced the league’s hardest schedule in 1999 compared to the third easiest in 1998. Denver also struggled in close games, finishing the season with a 3-8 record in one possession games. The 1999 Broncos retained most of their team from the previous season, but the losses of Elway to retirement and Davis to injury were too much for an otherwise talented team to overcome.

1999 Falcons

In 1998, Atlanta would be one of the best teams in football, riding RB Jamal Anderson to a 14-2 record and a Super Bowl XXXIII appearance against the Denver Broncos. However, after a 34-19 defeat, the Falcons fell to a 5-11 record the following season. Mirroring their AFC counterpart, Atlanta would also lose their star RB early in the season. Anderson tore his ACL in week 2, and the team was unable to replace his production. The Falcons would also lose their leading receiver, Tony Martin, to free agency in the 1999 offseason, and his impact on the offense could not be replicated. The defense improved against the pass but struggled against the run, falling from 2nd to 29th in rushing yards allowed. Atlanta’s luck with the ball changed drastically as well from 1998 to 1999, dropping from 8th to 23rd in turnovers and 1st to 31st in turnovers forced.

2011 Packers

The 2010 Packers were one of the more interesting teams to win the Super Bowl, doing so despite having 14 players on IR. That year, Green Bay finished the regular season 10-6, but only posted a record of 4-6 in one possession games. With their luck bound to change and an easier schedule in 2011, the Packers seemed destined to improve. That they did, going 15-1 overall and 6-1 in one possession games. Their luck with injuries improved as well, ending the season with just 6 players on IR. However, despite their improved record, their playoff performance could not live up to the standard set the year before. The 2011 Packers would fall to the Giants in the Divisional Round, ending their season prematurely. Although there is no obvious reason for the drop-off in performance, Green Bay’s defense suffered tremendously in 2011. The unit ranked near the top of the league in 2010 but would finish last in yards allowed the next year. Although the offense could compensate for the defense’s poor performance during the regular season, the 37 points allowed to the Giants in the Divisional Round were too much to overcome.

2016 Panthers

Last year’s Panthers tied the 1999 Falcons for the worst drop-off after a Super Bowl loss, falling from a league leading 15-1 in 2015 to 6-10 the subsequent year. This decline can be attributed to a couple key factors. First, 2015 MVP Cam Newton regressed heavily, throwing 16 less touchdowns and 4 more interceptions in 2016 and rushing for more than 15 yards per game less. Secondly, the team cut Josh Norman, their top corner from 2015, and second corner Bene Benwikere regressed before being cut following week 4. The secondary could not rebound from these losses, finishing 29th in passing yards allowed. Thirdly, Carolina faced an easy schedule in 2015, the 6th easiest in the league, and would face a much harder slate in 2016.

1999-2008 Stretch

From the 1999 Falcons to 2008 Patriots, teams that lost the Super Bowl faced very strong hangovers. In this stretch, every team but one got at least four wins worse (2000 Titans), and all but two teams made the playoffs (2000 Titans and 2006 Seahawks) or won double-digit games (2000 Titans and 2008 Patriots). Injuries played a key role in this drought, with the ’99 Falcons (RB Jamal Anderson), ’02 Rams (QB Kurt Warner), ’03 Raiders (QB Rich Gannon), and ’08 Patriots (QB Tom Brady) all losing their leaders for the season.

The 2004 Panthers were decimated by injury, losing both DeShaun Foster and Stephen Davis early in the season. Injuries to their star RB duo would be complemented by the loss of WR Steve Smith and a depleted offensive line which would have five different starting combinations throughout the season.

The 2005 Eagles faced the injury bug as well, coupled with a rough free agency period in which they lost defensive linemen Derrick Burgess and Corey Simon and contract disputes with WR Terrell Owens and RB Brian Westbrook that created distractions off the field. Westbrook was one of many players to miss time with an injury, and the long list of players afflicted included QB Donavan McNabb and CB Lito Sheppard.

The 2006 Seahawks also had some problems with injuries, although their problems didn’t near the severity of the other teams in this span. QB Matt Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander both missed time with injury.

The 2007 Bears did not have to deal with the injuries of any other team, but they had their hands full with off the field concerns. DT Tank Johnson was arrested in 2005 for illegal possession of a weapon at a night club, and was still on probation for this in December 2006 when his house was searched and six guns were discovered, violating his probation. In addition, his bodyguard was arrested in the house of possession of marijuana. Just two days later, this bodyguard would be killed in a shooting after allegedly being involved in a fight. In early 2007, Johnson would plead guilty and would be sentenced to 120 days in jail. His punishment would extend to the NFL, where he would be suspended for the first eight games of the season. A contract dispute with LB Lance Briggs only added to the off the field distractions. On the field, Chicago faced the loss of ’06 leading rusher Thomas Jones to a trade, with Cedric Benson slated to be his replacement. Benson would be a huge disappointment, while Jones would have success with the Jets. The team also lost DC Ron Rivera who was a key piece in developing their defensive talent. The Bears draft class in 2007 featured star TE Greg Olsen, but every other pick was a miss and this led to a lack of depth that the team sorely needed.

Since this stretch, Super Bowl losers have rebounded. Other than last year’s Panthers, every team made the playoffs in their hangover season with double-digit wins.

What lessons can we learn from analyzing these examples? While the players strikes that impacted the ’82 49ers and ’87 Giants may not be applicable this year, but, with a potential lockout looming in 2021, the impact one can have must be kept in mind. The factor that seemed to inflict a hangover the most was the loss of key players, especially to injury or retirement. Surprisingly, player trades and free agency played less of an impact than I would expect. Instead, regression seemed to play a bigger factor. Another factor which impacted teams was their record in one possession games, as teams in their hangover seasons seemed to lose many close games as their luck changed from season to season. On the flip side, teams that managed their rosters well and kept consistency from year to year did much better, and the impact of good drafting cannot be overstated.

Part III: This Year

Let’s apply these factors to both of the teams affected this year, starting with the reigning Super Bowl Champions.

New England seems to be in a good position to avoid a hangover. When applying a drop-off of one or two wins to their record, they still come out with a 12-4 record at the worst. This should all but guarantee them a playoff spot and would likely garner a division crown and first round bye. The Patriots have managed an extremely consistent roster, especially on the offensive line and on defense, where consistency is most important.

The question marks for this year’s team lie with injury and age concerns along with the development of draft picks. WR’s Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, TE Rob Gronkowski, and LB Dont’a Hightower and just some notable players who have had issues staying on the field for the team. If all of these players were to miss time, New England could face a tough season. In addition, many key players have crossed the age threshold of 30, including Edelman and Amendola as well as DT Alan Branch and ED Rob Ninkovich, and Tom Brady will be 40 by the time the season starts. Father time could play a part in New England’s 2017 season as regression by these players could seriously hamper the team’s chances of repeating.

The team’s top draft picks in the past four years have also failed to make the impact many expected, and the team is without 2014 1st round pick DT Dominique Easley, 4th round pick C Bryan Stork, and 2015 4th round pick G Tre’ Jackson. With two early picks spent on backup QB’s and two others made on underperforming DB’s, depth could be a question mark. This is especially notable at C, CB, and DE, where injuries could force unproven rookies or late-round backups into a starting role. Despite these question marks, New England’s offseason acquisitions of WR Brandin Cooks, TE Dwayne Allen, DE Kony Ealy, CB Stephon Gilmore, and RB’s Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead, as well as the return of Gronk, should help alleviate concerns of a hangover.

Atlanta seems to be in a slightly worse position going into 2017 than New England. An average hangover drop-off of around two or three wins would put the Falcons at either 8-8 or 9-7 next year, putting them in significant danger of missing the playoffs. Regression is a factor that must be seriously considered, as QB Matt Ryan is unlikely to repeat his MVP campaign. Atlanta succeeded in 2016 despite having the 27th worst defense in the NFL in points allowed. The offense led the team, leading the NFL in points scored and taking the Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance. If Matt Ryan regresses to his status as a great, but not elite, QB, then the offense could also face a drop-off in production significant enough to impact their win total.

However, their defense is young and has potential to grow. Growth from the defense could offset regression to the mean from the offense. Atlanta has done a very good job drafting as a whole, and the development of young talent will be huge in maintaining the success the franchise has attained over the past few seasons. Good drafting should give the Falcons the depth needed should the injury bug plague them next season. Personally, I project that Atlanta will finish either 9-7 or 10-6 next year, suffering a slight hangover, but they will make the playoffs and be in the hunt for the division crown.

In the end, we must remember that the actions make the data, and not the other way around. Just because the average team gets two games worse after playing in the Super Bowl doesn’t mean that one of these teams won’t improve or get far worse than the average. We must also remember that this is just speculation, and we can’t predict what will happen next year. All it takes is a single injury, trade, or breakout star to completely change the expectations for a team.

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