Brandon Loomis

The Arizona Republic

PHOENIX — El Niño was officially a disappointment for the drought-stressed Colorado River Basin.

The phenomenon caused from cyclical ocean surface warming simply didn't produce enough coveted moisture this time.

For the sixth year in a row, the area's high country produced less-than-normal snowfall. The result is expected to be less-than-normal water runoff.

Here are some common questions about what happened this winter and what it means for the thirsty Southwest.

El Niño falls short leaving California in drought

Question: Didn't I read that the skiing was great in northern Arizona early in the winter?

Answer: Yes, El Niño got off to a promising start, but that was just a snapshot for a moment in winter.

"Winter kind of ended up here (above the Mogollon Rim, the southern edge of the Colorado Plateau in Arizona) at the end of January," said David Newlin, watershed project director of the Little Colorado River Resource Conservation and Development Area. "It just stopped."

The problem evident in the precipitation charts from federal SnoTel measurement sites arrayed from the Flagstaff, Ariz., area to the New Mexico line. Things looked great going into February, then the snow quit falling and never restarted.

Data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service' SnoTel snow-water equivalent measurements show minimal snowpack as of Thursday in the Colorado River Basin.(Photo: USDA National Water and Climate Center)

Q. What does that mean for water supplies in the Phoenix area?

A. Basically, it means the Salt River Project will have to keep pumping groundwater to make up for the lack of river flows to keep its reservoir levels steady.

Right now the reservoirs are a combined 58% full. That's about where they were this time last year, and they've held steady because the water supplier has turned to wells so it can leave river water behind dams.

El Niño punches New England ski biz in the gut

El Niño did help out California's Sierra Nevada snowpack, and it seems to have drenched the Pacific Northwest and even poured some rain on the southeastern United States, said Charlie Ester, water resources manager for the Salt River Project.

"We were just in this doughnut hole of dry," he said.

Q. What about the Colorado River?

A. It's complicated, but the greater Southwest's water outlook isn't a whole lot brighter. Northern parts of the basin — in eastern Utah, northern Colorado and western Wyoming — gained some snow in March.

"There were some pretty big decreases in the rest of the basin," said Brenda Alcorn, Colorado River Basin Forecast Center;s senior hydrologist.

Sierra snowpack is disappointing

Important headwaters, like those in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado, dried up just like Arizona. The result is that this month the forecast center predicts the river will feed Lake Powell only about three-quarters of its average flows by July.

Lake Powell captures the bulk of what later ends up in Lake Mead, the reservoir that Arizona water managers watch most carefully. But other sources that supply Mead, such as southwestern Utah's Virgin River, also had a bleak month to end the winter.

This is about how things looked at this time last year, too, when weather forecasters were starting to wonder about their predictions for a wetter-than-average spring. Eventually, though, it came in the form of drenching rains in late April and early May, which kept Lake Powell from declining.

El Niño's drenching rains, heavy snow take February hiatus in California

Forecasters again project a wet spring though Colorado state climatologist Nolan Doesken said their confidence isn't as strong this year.

"There's still a lot of spring ahead," he said.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation recently projected the odds of a Lake Mead shortage declaration for 2018 at better than 50-50, and this winter's snowpack isn't going to improve the outlook. If the government does declare a shortage, states that draw water from the river would lose some of water, likely cutting off some farmers.

Q. How about fire season?

A. Fire season is almost here, and the U.S. Forest Service already has posted some areas as having high danger. The fear is for a big burn this year because the snow wasn't adequate to seep into the forest floor and water the trees.

"Forest conditions right now are as bad as they were before the Wallow and Chediski fires," Newlin said.

Lake Okeechobee water to be sent to Everglades, a first in dry season

Know that Wallow and Chediski are bad words in Arizona. They rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, on the state's all-time list of worst wildfires, transforming hundreds of thousands of acres of ponderosa pine forest.

They also took their toll on Arizona's water systems, filling reservoirs with ash and debris and requiring extra treatment for drinking.

Yet at the top of Newlin's mind during this dry season is the dangerous brush and tree growth around forest dwellers' homes.

"Despite our best efforts, not everybody is buying into the idea that you've got to clear defensible space around your property," he said. "They need to get on it."

Follow Brandon Loomis on Twitter: @brandonloomis