Taoiseach says he is ‘quietly confident’ as Ireland goes to the polls after hard-fought campaigns by both sides

The people of Ireland are voting on Friday in a historic referendum on whether to repeal or retain a constitutional clause protecting the rights of the unborn that has produced one of the most restrictive abortion regimes in the world.

Polling stations across Ireland opened at 7am and close at 10pm. At 6.55am in Dublin, voters were already waiting in the entrance of Our Lady’s Clonskeagh Parish secondary school.

Ruth Shaw, who was second in the queue, had changed a flight to New York so she could cast a vote, accompanied by her nine-year-old daughter Simi. “Its really important [to be here],” she said. “I’ve got two daughters.”

The outcome of the vote, expected to be close following a polarised and often acrimonious campaign, will either confirm Ireland on its journey from a conservative Catholic country to a socially liberal one, or indicate that social reforms over recent decades have reached their limit.

Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s taoiseach, has said the referendum is a “once in a generation decision”. If the proposal to repeal the constitutional clause is defeated, it is likely to be at least 35 years before voters get another say on the matter, he said this week.

On Friday he said he was “quietly confident.” “Not taking anything for granted, of course, but quietly confident,” he told reporters. “There has been a good turnout so far across the country.”

“A high turnout, I think, would be to the advantage of the ‘Yes’ campaign.”

At stake is article 40.3.3 of the Irish constitution, known as the eighth amendment. In place since 1983, it puts the “right to life of the unborn” on an equal status with the life of a pregnant woman. It underpins a near-total ban on abortion in Ireland, even in cases of rape, incest or fatal foetal abnormality.

Seeking or providing an abortion is punishable by up to 14 years in prison. There has been an exception for when a mother’s life is at risk only since 2013, when a woman died from septicaemia following a drawn-out miscarriage.

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As a result of the stringent controls on abortion, each year about 3,500 women travel abroad, mostly to the UK, to terminate their pregnancies – and an estimated 2,000 women illegally procure abortion pills online and self-administer them with no medical supervision.

Play Video 2:54 My budget flight to get an abortion: the story no one in Ireland wants to tell – video

If the vote is in favour of repeal, the government plans to introduce legislation permitting unrestricted abortion during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. Abortions up to the 23rd week will be permitted when a woman’s health is threatened and in cases of a fatal foetal abnormality.

Voting has already closed on some of the islands on the west and south of Ireland, with 2,151 people entitled to vote yesterday on the Donegal, Galway and Mayo islands and another 460 voting in the Cork islands.

Counting will begin on Saturday morning, with the final result expected to be formally announced in the late afternoon. However, the outcome may be clear earlier as results come in from key constituencies. Dublin is expected to be strongly yes-voting, and rural areas more inclined to vote no.

Campaign literature is officially banned in polling stations, but at least one person had come to Our Lady’s Clonskeagh Parish school wearing a yes badge hidden under her sweater, a symbolic tribute to the campaign she supported.

Aisling, 31, came just as the polls opened to cast her vote for yes before going to the gym. “I really don’t know [which side will win],” she said. “It’s very divisive and probably no is a bit controversial, a lot of people won’t speak out [if they are voting that way].”

The votes of thousands of Irish expatriates travelling home to take part in the referendum could be significant. Some reported on social media that they were coming from as far away as Los Angeles, Australia, Vietnam and Argentina in order to cast their votes.

Lauryn Canny tweeted:

Lauryn Canny (@LaurynCanny) I'm coming #HomeToVote ! Will be traveling 5,169 miles from LA to Dublin and will be thinking of every Irish woman who has had to travel to access healthcare that should be available in their own country. Let's do this, Ireland! #repealthe8th #VoteYes pic.twitter.com/fZDxUIGrs9

Colette Kelleher tweeted:

Colette Kelleher (@ColetteKelleher) My lovely son is coming #hometovote. This poor student used his birthday money to buy plane ticket home. Just messaged me "we will get you to the Emerald City on Friday" ❤️ He will #voteyes with his Dad. For his sister, his Mum & women of Ireland #togetherforyes @Men4Yes

The latest opinion polls indicate a majority for repeal, although undecided voters – estimated at between 14% and 20% of the total – could hold sway. Two polls published this week showed small increases in the yes vote, with one putting it at 56% and another at 52%.

One poll also used a technique known as “wisdom of the crowds”, asking people to estimate the result of the referendum. The outcome was 56-44% in favour of yes.

Private polling for Fianna Fáil, whose parliamentary representatives are divided on the referendum, is believed to predict a similar outcome.

Friday’s referendum comes three years after Ireland became the first country in the world to back same-sex marriage in a popular vote, confirming a profound shift in Ireland’s social attitudes. Twenty years earlier, Ireland voted by the tightest of margins in a referendum to allow divorce, which was previously banned under the constitution.

Changes in social attitudes have been in lockstep with the declining influence of the Catholic church, once the dominant voice in Ireland and a crucial player in the drive to add an abortion ban to the constitution.

But revelations of sexual abuse and cover-up by priests in recent years have shaken Ireland’s faith in the church, and the internet and social media have challenged the authority of the pulpit.

Although 78% of the population still identified as Catholic in 2016, the proportion is significantly smaller among people under the age of 35. Between 1972 and 2011, weekly church attendance fell from 91% to 30%. In Dublin, it dropped to 14%.

Play Video 9:49 Meet the people fighting to keep Ireland's abortion ban – video

Social media has been an important battleground for both sides of the campaign. Earlier this month, Google announced a ban on all ads relating to the referendum and Facebook announced that it was blocking all foreign referendum advertising.

But there has also been an intense ground battle, with campaigners for both sides canvassing door-to-door, holding public rallies and meetings, and handing out leaflets on the streets in an attempt to win over undecided voters.

The yes campaign has focused on the argument that abortion is a reality for thousands of Irish woman, but the constitutional ban merely exports the issue at huge emotional, physical and financial cost to a woman in a crisis situation.

The no campaign has repeatedly said “extremist” legislation would follow repeal. In fact, the government’s proposals would bring Ireland into line with most of Europe.