For the first time in five years, Disney and Pixar are sitting out Father’s Day weekend as they’ve opted to release Toy Story 4 one week later on the calendar this year. As such, that impact will be felt this weekend as the only new releases target an older male audience and family audiences are left to choose from holdover titles.

PROS:

Men In Black International will hope to cash in not only on the franchise’s goodwill (2012’s third entry enjoyed strong word of mouth after an otherwise modest opening), but also the chemistry of new stars Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson — both of whom helped drive the success of Thor: Ragnarok. Sunday attendance could benefit from the holiday with adult male fans being the target crowd.

The latest Shaft film will similarly aim to leverage its star — Samuel L. Jackson — and generational appeal into a healthy holiday opening. It, too, will likely see a strong hold on Sunday thanks to Father’s Day. The previous 2000 film starring Jackson opened to $21.7 million on Father’s Day weekend in June 2000, or about $37 million adjusted for 2019 ticket prices.

CONS:

Men In Black International‘s tracking had closely mirrored that of 2016’s Ghostbusters reboot in recent weeks, although trends have soured in recent days — particularly as moviegoers have shown a lack of interest in returning to franchise films without a significant hook. A 34 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and the absence of franchise stars Will Smith, Tommy Lee Jones, and Josh Brolin won’t help matters either. Internal tracking metrics suggest an opening similar to 2017’s The Mummy reboot ($31.7 million opening) now appears more likely, with some models even pushing further south.

Similarly, while Shaft showed early signs of a breakout candidate with interest tracking not far off the levels of Equalizer 2, the final marketing phase has left something to be desired. Jackson’s own Hitman’s Bodyguard ($21.4 million opening in August 2017) now appears to be a stronger comparison, with fair walk-up business expected to off-set lukewarm pre-sales activity.

Weekend Ranges:

Men In Black International ($25 – 35 million)

($25 – 35 million) Shaft ($15 – 24 million)

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decline approximately 48 – 53 percent from the same Father’s Day weekend last year when Incredibles 2 debuted to an animation medium record $182.7 million as part of an overall $258.5 million top ten market.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 16 % Change from Last Wknd Men In Black International Sony / Columbia $28,000,000 $28,000,000 NEW The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal / Illumination $25,800,000 $92,300,000 -45% Shaft (2019) Warner Bros. / New Line $20,000,000 $20,000,000 NEW Aladdin (2019) Disney $16,200,000 $263,500,000 -34% Dark Phoenix Fox $13,000,000 $55,700,000 -60% Rocketman Paramount $9,300,000 $66,700,000 -33% Godzilla: King of the Monsters Warner Bros. $8,000,000 $93,300,000 -48% John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum Lionsgate / Summit $4,400,000 $146,700,000 -41% Avengers: Endgame Disney / Marvel $3,600,000 $830,500,000 -26% Late Night (est. 1500 locations) Amazon Studios $3,500,000 $3,600,000 1318%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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