The risk level for parts of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma was raised to “moderate” Tuesday morning, which is a Level 4 on the scale of five from the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center. Lower risk levels cover a much larger area.

The issuance of a moderate risk rating for tornadoes is infrequent, with only a handful in most years of late. A moderate risk suggests that a regional tornado outbreak is possible.

“Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon into early tonight across the Texas Panhandle into extreme western Oklahoma,” the Storm Prediction Center wrote Tuesday morning. “A couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.”

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In addition to the tornado threat, baseball- to softball-size hail is possible in the most intense storms, which can leave behind significant damage.

By Tuesday night and continuing into early Wednesday, a large squall line containing damaging winds may race east across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

That squall line could end up tempering Wednesday afternoon’s storm potential somewhat. Otherwise, violent storms could flare up for a second straight day with cities such as Austin, Oklahoma City and Shreveport, La., potentially in the path.

By Thursday, the severe weather threat is expected to shift to the mid-South and probably diminish somewhat.

Flooding concerns

Flooding is an omnipresent concern this spring in the central United States, and only worsened by any more rain. Given all the precipitation in recent months across the region, soils are saturated and rivers are at the brim or beyond.

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On Monday, the Mississippi River crested in St. Louis at its seventh-highest level on record. Flood warnings are in effect for large sections of the river as it remains at major flood stage.

The current storm system could exacerbate flooding, although its speed may limit the potential for more serious rainfall amounts.

“There is still some uncertainty in forecast rainfall over the next two days,” the Weather Service wrote regarding the flood threat along the Mississippi. “Heavier rainfall than currently forecast may affect the rate of renewed rises and crests later this week into next week.”

To the west of the Mississippi River, flash flood watches cover large sections of Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri, and smaller zones in Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas. Kansas is at greatest risk of flash flooding as Tuesday’s storm system draws moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico.

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The Weather Prediction Center suggests that widespread amounts of two inches or more are likely as this storm system churns eastward. Upward of five inches may fall in spots. On Wednesday, a similar story may unfold in eastern Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana, and perhaps extending farther north into parts of the Midwest.