More than 10% of restaurants in Acadiana could shutter forever because of the devastating effect the coronavirus shutdown is having on the food service industry.

Recent surveys by the National Restaurant Association paint a grim future for the industry Cajun Country is celebrated for.

Nearly half of all restaurants have closed temporarily because of COVID-19 restrictions; 3% of restaurants have permanently closed and 11% anticipate closing permanently in the coming weeks.

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State and local restaurant leaders say the two recent national surveys of more than 5,000 restaurateurs accurately represent what is happening here.

"I think it's accurate," said Randy Daniel, president of the Acadiana chapter of the Louisiana Restaurant Association. "It's unscientific, but it's accurate."

Daniel is a seasoned restaurateur who has rebuilt restaurants in south Louisiana after hurricanes Katrina and Rita, but the past few months have been unlike anything else he's experienced.

After taking on a new role as president of the local restaurant association in January, he took over the day-to-day operations of La Pizzeria in February.

In March, he had to temporarily lay off 70% of his staff and transition the 25-year-old business into a takeout-only operation.

"We just want to get back to normal," Daniel said. "And it's just a fear that we're not going to be able to. That's what scares us the most."

By Daniel's estimates, a greater percentage of Acadiana restaurants have kept the doors open compared to the 44% of those nationwide that have closed temporarily.

"The community here will fight through it as long as they possibly can," Daniel said. "It's almost easier to close the doors, but that's just not our spirit here. I would say we're probably doing a little better than the national average right now, but what nobody is really talking about here is that fear of what's on the horizon once we overcome this."

The short-term impact might not seem as great for local restaurants, but the long-term impact could be greater than the national average because of the oil crash.

"As we are all aware, Louisiana has been doubly hit with our energy sector collapse and the high amount of COVID-19 cases," said Andrea Veron, the second-generation owner of Cafe Vermilionville. "Suffering from one alone is devastating for our state, but the impact of the two looks as though our recovery will be potentially much tougher than most."

Cafe Vermilionville, known for its service as much as its food, has been closed since March 16 when Gov. John Bel Edwards ordered restaurant dining area to close in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Although it makes sense for some restaurants to shift to takeout and delivery-only operations, it's hard for fine dining establishments to make the transition.

The restaurant industry has suffered the most significant loss of sales and jobs of any other since the pandemic began, according to the association's report.

Two out of three restaurant employees have lost their jobs. About 61% of restaurant operators said existing federal relief won't prevent more restaurant layoffs. Restaurants lost $30 billion in sales in March and are expected to lose an additional $50 billion in April.

The association on Monday sent a blueprint for recovery to Congress, asking for a $240 billion grant program for the restaurant industry. The $240 billion represents the association's estimate of restaurant industry sales losses through the end of the year.

Ema Haq, who owns Bailey's Restaurant and Ema's Cafe, closed his sister restaurants for about three weeks before reopening to serve free and low-cost lunches to those in need.

He's long been known for his generosity in the community, offering free meals on Thanksgiving and donating food and event space to nonprofits. This time, however, it's more of a survival technique — both personally and professionally.

"We're going to lose money no matter what," Haq said. "This is something that makes me feel a little bit better. I was getting so depressed. I needed to do something."

Haq has been able to bring back a handful of his employees as a result. He initially furloughed more than 20 people, a few of whom had worked for him for 20 years.

He estimates that 10-20% of Acadiana's restaurants will close forever as a result of the coronavirus shutdown and the oil crash.

They've lost a substantial amount of business during the Lenten seafood season and on Easter Sunday. Now they're missing out on spring festivals, including Festival International de Louisiane. They're worried they'll miss out on Mother's Day, prom and graduation celebrations in the month ahead.

As for his restaurants, Haq said he hasn't been able to think about the possibility of closing for good.

"I don't even think the words," Haq said. "And if I do, I'm very depressed about it. We're just hoping for the best."

If restaurants are able to resume full service sooner rather than later, they'll still have a challenging road ahead. The summer months in south Louisiana are typically the slowest of the year for the restaurant industry. That's why the local dining campaign Eat Lafayette runs from June through September — to drum up business for local restaurants when they need it the most.

Ben Berthelot, president and CEO of the Lafayette Travel, said the campaign will still happen this year because restaurants need the help more than ever. It is still uncertain, however, what restrictions might still be in place.

Restaurant owners also worry about the potential for more restrictions if COVID-19 cases spike again later in the year as experts are predicting. The holiday season is typically the busiest time of year for the food service industry.

"I'm worried we will lax and have a repeat like the Spanish Flu, which for obvious reasons, is a public health hazard, but also will extend the quarantine to irrecoverable financial proportions for many industries," Veron said. "An industry-specific concern of mine is that when we are allowed to reopen, we will be becoming fully operational at the hardest time for restaurants — summer — when our patron base is on vacation.

"I sincerely hope folks will consider staycationing and perhaps planning on dining at independent restaurants as they would for a vacation."

Even with federal assistance and the ability to offer carryout services, Acadiana restaurateurs worry it won't be enough to keep small operations afloat. Restaurants operate on slim profit margins during good times.

Daniel said his business is barely able to cover staffing and food expenses right now, and his restaurant's staple is pizza, a popular choices for takeout and delivery. His landlord and vendors have been understanding and are working with him on payment options, he added. After all, they also rely on restaurants staying in business to stay afloat.

"As this prolongs, you're going to see more and more restaurants closing," Daniel said. "Hopefully, it'll be just temporarily, but unfortunately, I think some of them may be permanently."