Democrats are currently a 53-47 minority in the U.S. Senate. Given the expected loss of our Alabama seat (a lucky special-election rental), that means we need to pick up four seats to get to a 50-50 tie, which would hopefully be broken in our favor by future Vice President Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams, or Elizabeth Warren. Ideally we’d win more than that, not just to give Democrats some breathing room (let’s not forget that conservative Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema will be regularly voting against us), but also to ensure control if Trump managed to win reelection, which is still a real possibility.

We are almost guaranteed a pickup in Colorado. Republicans have all but surrendered that seat. We are narrowly favored in Arizona and Maine. No guarantees! But we look good. We also look pretty good in North Carolina, which kinda surprises me, but it’s legit. Montana sneaks into the top tier given the Democrats’ recruitment coup of Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, but it’s a tough state at the federal level, so that one likely leans slightly red.

Then we get to the second-tier Senate races—two in Georgia and Iowa … pickings start getting slim. In the third tier, we have long-shot races in Kansas, Kentucky, and Texas—races we wouldn’t win in a normal political climate, but nothing is normal about today’s climate.

Other than Alabama, no Democrat is at risk of losing reelection. We’re playing mostly on their turf. Here’s the map, as I currently see it:

It’s absurdly close, with anything from a 53-47 Republican majority to a 54-46 Democratic one being possible without too many changes in the current political climate. So a scandal rocking the Senate could definitely have real impact on who controls the chamber after November’s elections.

Loeffler was appointed to her Georgia Senate seat by Gov. Nathan Deal at the start of this year. The move was controversial—Donald Trump wasn't on board, despite Deal’s best efforts. Conservatives had rallied around crazy right Rep. Doug Collins, while Kemp was apparently enamored by Loeffler’s personal wealth (it’s sizable), the fact that she is a woman in a party that is losing the female vote by unsustainable margins, and even her more “moderate” politics (she once supported Planned Parenthood) in a now-purple state. For his part, Collins was a consummate Trump ass-kisser, and you know how far that gets you with the narcissist in the White House.

Deal bucked Trump, picked Loeffler, and the Republican establishment was all set to rally around her because, on paper, she seemed like a formidable candidate. That is, until she and her husband decided to profit off the impending death of hundreds of thousands of Americans and national economic calamity, selling up to $3 million in stocks. Her husband, by the way? He’s the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, because this season’s writers insist on being lazy and utterly unbelievable in their storylines.

Apparently even Republicans hold a dim view of that. And now, that very same establishment has turned its back on her. In addition to the litany of conservative organizations expressing their “concern” or worse, this bombshell dropped:

x The top Republican super PAC focused on Senate races is booking more than $67M for TV ads this fall - and the bloc of states where the group is reserving time doesnÃ¢ÂÂt include Georgia. #gapol #gasen https://t.co/JDTflHukv6 — Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) March 23, 2020

That was as clear a sign as any—Loeffler is on her own. That means that any efforts to clear the field for her, already dim, are dead-dead. It means that Collins gets a boost heading into the primary. It means that there is a real chance now that Republicans nominate a far-right wacko instead of the more moderate-presenting Loeffler, boosting our chances to pick up that seat.

Georgia is becoming a critical presidential battleground, definitely purple. But people forget that it is also a major Senate battleground, with two Senate seats in play—the regularly scheduled reelection campaign of Republican Sen. David Perdue, and this special election seat currently held by Loeffler. Anything that roils the state GOP and tars its candidates is good news for us. That’s why the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has been all over this story. They smell opportunity.

Meanwhile, North Carolina’s Sen. Burr is in a different kind of Hell. He wouldn’t face reelection until 2022, but he’s already announced that this is his last term. He apparently had zero fucks to give, which is why he cashed out up to $1.7 million (financial disclosure forms allow for those kind of vagaries). Yet it turns out that North Carolina voters have a dim view of such profiteering. “50% of voters in the state think Burr should resign to 24% who think he should remain in office,” reported Public Policy Polling on their poll of the state about a week ago. “Democrats (63/15) and independents (53/18) both think he should resign by wide margins but what might be most surprising is that even Republicans (31/38) only narrowly say Burr doesn’t need to resign.”

A third of Republicans think he should resign.

If Burr resigned, which conservatives like Fox News’ Tucker Carlson and even Donald f’n Trump endorsed, he would be replaced with another Republican until a November special election determined who would hold that seat for the remainder of Burr’s term. In an interesting twist, the winner would take the seat as soon as the results were certified, around Thanksgiving.

Burr bought himself some time by asking the Senate ethics committee to investigate the stock transactions. It remains to be seen if pressure continues to build or if he can ride it out, especially if Republicans decide that it’s too risky to lose the seat to the Democrats, even if Burr is a piece of crap for profiteering off the pandemic.

The Justice Department investigation just compounds the headaches faced by both Loeffler and Burr (and maybe some other senators, though no one else’s transactions looks as suspicious as those of these two). The Stock Act of 2012 made it illegal to use inside information for profit, while insider trading, in general, is also illegal.

Ironically, just three senators voted against the Stock Act. Among them? Yup, Burr.