by Aaron Schatz

The Dallas Cowboys stay on top of Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings this week with a big win over Detroit, and the New England Patriots stay right behind them with a big win of their own. Both teams are higher in weighted DVOA than in full-season DVOA, as they've played some of their best football in recent weeks. The Cowboys had 59.7% DVOA in their 42-21 win over Detroit, their best single game all season by DVOA. Three of the Cowboys' top four games of the year have come over the past five weeks, starting with the Thanksgiving win over Washington.

New England's gap between full-season DVOA and weighted DVOA is less about what the Patriots have done in December and more about what they didn't do in September -- namely, they didn't get to start Tom Brady at quarterback. A look at the Patriots' splits this season show the interesting way they've developed on both sides of the ball. There's no question that the New England offense has not been as powerful without a healthy Rob Gronkowski. However, the Patriots have continued to reign as the best team in the AFC because the defense has steadily improved over the course of the season, while the special teams are much better now that Cyrus Jones is not regularly returning kickoffs or punts, and Stephen Gostkowski has cured his apparent case of the yips. Here's a look at the Patriots' DVOA split into all three parts, along with rank out of all 32 teams during the given time period:

New England DVOA by Week, 2016 Weeks Off DVOA Rank Def DVOA Rank ST DVOA Rank Tot DVOA Rank Weeks 1-4: Brady suspended 2.8% 12 10.7% 28 3.4% 8 -4.5% 17 Weeks 5-10: Brady and Gronk healthy 32.0% 2 -2.7% 13 0.0% 10 34.7% 1 Weeks 11-16: Brady healthy, Gronk injured* 16.7% 7 -12.0% 6 5.1% 7 33.8% 3 *Gronkowski did play in Week 12, but had only two targets.

Of course, another way to split the Patriots' season would be to look at the defense before and after the Jamie Collins trade. In that case, you end up with 1.2% DVOA in Weeks 1-8 (18th) and -6.6% DVOA in Weeks 9-16 (10th).

Obviously, the Patriots' easy schedule is a big reason why the defense has looked so good in the past few weeks. The Patriots have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, and during their current six-game winning streak, every offense they've faced has been ranked in the bottom 10 of offensive DVOA. However, the Patriots have improved on defense even after accounting for this easy schedule. If we used unadjusted VOA, their defense over the past six weeks would have a rating of -28.3%, by far the best in the league over that span.

Here's a look at the week-to-week graphs for Dallas and New England. The Cowboys have been more consistent than the Patriots, but neither team has had many games that come out below 0% DVOA, with the notable exception of the Week 4 Buffalo game started by an injured Jacoby Brissett.

Regular Football Outsiders know that I keep refering to 2016 as The Year of No Great Teams, but Dallas and New England do keep inching up in DVOA and are starting to get near other teams that finished past seasons at No. 1. Right now, the 1993 Dallas Cowboys have the lowest DVOA rating for a No. 1 team, at 24.9%. The Cowboys and/or Patriots could pass that with strong wins in Week 17. There's even less chance of the Cowboys and/or Patriots finishing the season with the lowest weighted DVOA for a No. 1 team. That currently belongs to the 2001 San Francisco 49ers, who ended the regular season with 25.0% weighted DVOA.

The Year of No Great Teams has stronger pull with defense than with offense. The top two defenses in last week's DVOA ratings both gave up over 30 points last week. Denver is still No. 1 on defense, and probably will not end the season as the worst defense to ever rank No. 1. (That's currently the 2007 Tennessee Titans at -14.4% DVOA.) Baltimore has fallen behind the New York Giants and ranks No. 3. The Ravens are still No. 1 against the run, but have really slowed their historic pace. They clearly won't finish as the best run defense in DVOA history, and may not even rank in the top ten. Sunday's results also mean that only three of the top ten defenses by DVOA will appear in the playoffs: the Giants (2), Seahawks (4), and Steelers (9).

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With 15 games in the books, there aren't going to be many big movements in the full-season DVOA ratings from week to week. Even with teams packed very close together, the only significant moves among playoff teams are Washington climbing from 11th to eighth and Miami going from 19th to 15th. Movement is stronger with weighted DVOA. Kansas City climbs from ninth to fifth this week, and Denver drops from 18th to 24th. Tennessee and Oakland also each fall three spots in weighted DVOA, and of course the Raiders fall even further in our playoff odds simulation due to the loss of Derek Carr. Out of curiosity, we ran a second simulation using Oakland's actual weighted DVOA rather than penalizing them for the loss of Carr. With a healthy Carr, the Raiders' odds of winning Super Bowl LI more than double, going from 3.5 percent to 7.5 percent.

Now that Houston has guaranteed itself a playoff spot, many readers will wonder if the Texans have the worst DVOA rating ever for a playoff team. The answer is no. That record belongs to the 2004 St. Louis Rams, who ranked 31st out of 32 teams with -27.2% DVOA. However, the Texans will challenge the record for the lowest DVOA by a division champion, which belongs to the 2010 Seahawks team that was the first to ever win a division at 7-9. The Seahawks had -22.9% DVOA that year, and the Texans are currently at -23.1%. Next week, once we know the final DVOA ratings for Houston and Detroit, I'll run a full table of the worst teams to make the playoffs since 1989. However, it's worth noting that the three worst (2004 Rams, 2010 Seahawks, and 1998 Cardinals) each won their first playoff game. Have hope, Houston!

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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 17 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. The best player of each week, the Football Outsiders Hero, will require you to collect a set of the other four Football Outsiders players that week, plus a certain number of Football Outsiders collectibles available in Madden Ultimate Team packs.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 16 are:

RG David DeCastro, PIT (FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS HERO): No sacks allowed; Steelers RB had 11 carries for 52 yards up the middle with 82% success rate.

No sacks allowed; Steelers RB had 11 carries for 52 yards up the middle with 82% success rate. TE Charles Clay, BUF: No. 2 among Week 16 TE with 41 DYAR (8-for-10, 85 yards, 2 TD).

No. 2 among Week 16 TE with 41 DYAR (8-for-10, 85 yards, 2 TD). LG Senio Kelemete, NO: Saints RB had 9 carries, 57 yards, 2 TD up the middle with 100% success rate.

Saints RB had 9 carries, 57 yards, 2 TD up the middle with 100% success rate. MLB Sio Moore, ARI: 8 run tackles for a combined gain of 7 yards.

8 run tackles for a combined gain of 7 yards. CB Jamar Taylor, CLE: 4 defeats: interception, two run TFL, and 11-yard tackle on third-and-13. Also had 2 other PDs.

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All player/team DVOA stats pages are now updated through Week 16 of 2016. Playoff odds, snap counts, and the premium DVOA database are also fully updated. Drive stats and pace stats will be updated later this evening.

This week's playoff odds commentary on ESPN Insider will run on Wednesday.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 16 weeks of 2016, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DAL 23.7% 1 28.6% 2 13-2 22.8% 2 0.2% 18 1.1% 12 2 NE 23.4% 2 31.3% 1 13-2 18.1% 3 -2.3% 16 2.9% 7 3 PIT 19.2% 3 24.3% 3 10-5 13.7% 9 -5.2% 9 0.4% 14 4 ATL 18.1% 4 18.5% 4 10-5 24.8% 1 9.0% 27 2.3% 8 5 PHI 13.1% 5 6.3% 14 6-9 -5.9% 20 -10.6% 5 8.4% 1 6 GB 12.4% 6 13.8% 7 9-6 15.3% 6 1.0% 19 -1.8% 21 7 KC 11.9% 8 17.4% 5 11-4 1.8% 13 -4.4% 12 5.7% 3 8 OAK 10.6% 7 8.9% 11 12-3 14.8% 7 5.2% 22 1.0% 13 9 WAS 10.4% 12 13.5% 8 8-6-1 17.7% 4 7.5% 25 0.2% 15 10 SEA 9.4% 9 6.6% 13 9-5-1 -3.0% 18 -11.1% 4 1.3% 9 11 BAL 9.1% 10 15.7% 6 8-7 -8.1% 23 -12.9% 3 4.3% 6 12 NYG 7.7% 11 10.8% 10 10-5 -6.1% 21 -13.9% 2 0.0% 16 13 BUF 4.3% 15 3.4% 17 7-8 14.1% 8 7.3% 24 -2.4% 25 14 TEN 3.6% 13 11.7% 9 8-7 11.9% 10 6.9% 23 -1.3% 19 15 MIA 2.2% 19 5.9% 15 10-5 0.4% 14 -0.7% 17 1.2% 11 16 NO 2.0% 17 4.8% 16 7-8 17.3% 5 12.6% 29 -2.7% 27 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 DEN 1.9% 14 -6.9% 24 8-7 -12.7% 28 -16.4% 1 -1.9% 22 18 SD -0.4% 16 -4.2% 21 5-10 -5.4% 19 -8.3% 7 -3.3% 28 19 TB -0.5% 18 8.0% 12 8-7 -2.2% 16 -3.3% 14 -1.6% 20 20 CIN -1.2% 20 -2.9% 20 5-9-1 3.1% 12 1.6% 20 -2.6% 26 21 ARI -3.4% 25 -5.7% 23 6-8-1 -7.3% 22 -10.2% 6 -6.3% 30 22 CHI -3.7% 21 -1.3% 19 3-12 -0.7% 15 2.7% 21 -0.3% 17 23 MIN -4.1% 22 -13.1% 26 7-8 -11.5% 26 -6.2% 8 1.2% 10 24 IND -4.9% 24 3.1% 18 7-8 3.1% 11 13.0% 30 5.0% 4 25 CAR -5.5% 23 -5.6% 22 6-9 -8.6% 25 -5.1% 10 -2.0% 23 26 JAC -10.1% 27 -8.9% 25 3-12 -12.0% 27 -4.2% 13 -2.3% 24 27 DET -15.5% 26 -16.1% 27 9-6 -2.3% 17 17.6% 32 4.4% 5 28 SF -21.0% 28 -21.3% 28 2-13 -8.3% 24 11.6% 28 -1.2% 18 29 HOU -23.1% 30 -23.6% 29 9-6 -20.9% 30 -4.8% 11 -6.9% 31 30 LARM -24.2% 29 -28.7% 30 4-11 -34.2% 32 -2.4% 15 7.6% 2 31 CLE -35.0% 32 -36.4% 31 1-14 -14.9% 29 16.7% 31 -3.3% 29 32 NYJ -38.1% 31 -42.9% 32 4-11 -21.7% 31 8.5% 26 -7.9% 32

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).