The explosion of cities and megacities has increased scholars’ and policy markers’ attention to the effects such changes might have on conflict: increasingly, urban environments may alter the nature of warfare but not necessarily the incidence of intrastate war. We argue that high levels of urban concentration—the concentration of populations in one or relatively few urban centers—increases both the likelihood of civil wars and their intensity. Urban concentration limits the ability of the state to project power across space, exacerbating grievances in rural areas, easing rebel control of territory, and enhancing their military strength. At the same time, cities become high-value loci of contestation even as urban warfare constrains conventional state military strength. The result is more symmetrical fighting producing more battle deaths. Cross-national regressions show that urban concentration exerts a crucial effect on the likelihood, nature, and intensity of intrastate warfare.

References

*Acemoglu, Daron, Johnson, Simon, Robinson, James A.. 2001 . “ An African Success Story: Botswana .” MIT Department of Economics Working Paper No. 01-37. Cambridge, MA : MIT .

Google Scholar Crossref

Adamson, William G. 2015 . “ Megacities and the US Army .” Parameters 45 (1): 45 .

Google Scholar

Balcells, Laia, Kalyvas, Stathis N.. 2014 . “ Does Warfare Matter? Severity, Duration, and Outcomes of Civil Wars .” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (8): 1390 – 418 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals | ISI

Bates, Robert H. 1981 . States and Markets in Tropical Africa: The Political Basis of Agricultural Policy. Series on Social Choice and Political Economy. Berkeley : University of California Press .

Google Scholar

Brathwaite, Kirstin J. H., Konaev, Margarita. 2019 . “ War in the City: Urban Ethnic Geography and Combat Effectiveness .” Journal of Strategic Studies. Accessed October 16, 2019. doi: 10.1080/01402390.2019.1672159.

Google Scholar Crossref

Brennan-Galvin, Ellen . 2002 . “ Crime and Violence in an Urbanizing World .” Journal of International Affairs 56 (1): 123 – 45 .

Google Scholar

Buhaug, Halvard, Cederman, Lars-Erik, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2014 . “ Square Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War .” International Studies Quarterly 58 (2): 418 – 31 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Carter, David B., Signorino, Curtis S.. 2010 . “ Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data .” Political Analysis 18 (3): 271 – 92 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

*Cederman, Lars-Erik, Hug, Simon, Schadel, Andreas, Wucherpfennig, Julian. 2015 . “ Territorial Autonomy in the Shadow of Conflict: Too Little, Too Late? ” American Political Science Review 109 (2): 354 – 70 .

Google Scholar Crossref

Cheibub, José Antonio, Gandhi, Jennifer, Vreeland, James Raymond. 2012 . “ Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited .” Public Choice 143 (1-2): 67 – 101 .

Google Scholar Crossref

*Colgan, Jeff D. 2015 . “ Oil, Domestic Conflict, and Opportunities for Democratization .” Journal of Peace Research 52 (1): 3 – 16 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals

Collier, Paul, Hoeffler, Anke. 2004 . “ Greed and Grievance in Civil War .” Oxford Economic Papers 56 (4): 563 – 95 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Counterinsurgency Field Manual . 2007 . The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual. Chicago : University of Chicago Press .

Google Scholar

Desch, Michael C. , Ed. 2001 . Soldiers in Cities: Military Operations on Urban Terrain. Carlisle, PA : Strategic Studies Institute .

Google Scholar Crossref

Evangelista, Matthew . 2004 . The Chechen Wars: Will Russia Go the Way of the Soviet Union? Washington, DC : Brookings Institution Press .

Google Scholar

Fazal, Tanisha M. 2014 . “ Dead Wrong?: Battle Deaths, Military Medicine, and Exaggerated Reports of War’s Demise .” International Security 39 (1): 95 – 125 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Fearon, James D. 2004 . “ Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others? ” Journal of Peace Research 41 (3): 275 – 301 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals | ISI

Fearon, James D., Laitin, David D.. 2003 . “ Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War .” American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75 – 90 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Felgenhauer, Pavel . 2000 . “ Russia’s Forces Unreconstructed .” Perspective: Boston University’s Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and Policy 10 (4): 1 – 9 . Accessed November 27, 2019. https://open.bu.edu/bitstream/handle/2144/3575/perspective_10_4_felgenhauer.pdf?sequence=1.

Google Scholar

Foreign Relations of the United States . 1975 . “ Minutes of a National Security Council Meeting, Washington, June 27, 1975, 2:30–3:20 p.m .” Accessed November 26, 2019. https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v28/d113.

Google Scholar

Fox, Sean . 2017 . “ Mortality, Migration, AND Rural Transformation in Sub-Saharn Africa’s Urban Transition .” Journal of Demographic Economics 83 (1): 13 – 30 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Galula, David . 1964 . Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice. Westport, CT : Praeger Security International .

Google Scholar

Gaviria, Alejandro, Stein, Ernesto H.. 2000 . “ The Evolution of Urban Concentration around the World: A Panel Approach .” Technical report. Inter-American Development Bank. Accessed November 26, 2019. http://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/1315.

Google Scholar

Gentile, Gian, Johnson, David E., Saum-Manning, Lisa, Cohen, Raphael S., Williams, Shara, Lee, Carrie, Shurkin, Michael, Allen, Brenna, Soliman, Sarah, Doty, James L.. 2017 . Reimagining the Character of Urban Operations for the US Army. Santa Monica, CA : RAND .

Google Scholar

Gleditsch, Kristian S. 2002 . “ Expanded Trade and GDP data .” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (5): 712 – 24 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals | ISI

Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, Strand, Håvard. 2002 . “ Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset .” Journal of Peace Research 39 (5): 615 – 37 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals | ISI

Goldstone, Jack A. 2002 . “ Population and Security: How Demographic Change can Lead to Violent Conflict .” Journal of International Affairs 56 (1): 3 – 21 .

Google Scholar

*Graham, Benjamin A. T., Miller, Michael K., Strom, Kaare W.. 2017 . “ Safeguarding Democracy: Powersharing and Democratic Survival .” American Political Science Review 111 (4): 686 – 704 .

Google Scholar Crossref

Graham, Stephen . 2004 . “ Cities as Strategic Sites: Place Annihilation and Urban Geopolitics .” In Cities, War, and Terrorism: Towards an Urban Geopolitics, edited by Graham, Stephen , 31 – 53 . Malden, MA : Blackwell .

Google Scholar Crossref

Greenhill, Brian, Ward, Michael D., Sacks, Audrey. 2011 . “ The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models .” American Journal of Political Science 55 (4): 991 – 1002 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Guevara, Che . 2002 . Guerrilla Warfare. Lanham, MD : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers .

Google Scholar

Hahn, Robert, F., Jezior, Bonnie. 1999 . “ Urban Warfare and the Urban Warfighter of 2025 .” Parameters 29 (2): 74 .

Google Scholar

Henderson, Vernon . 2002 . “ Urban Primacy, External Costs, and Quality of Life .” Resource and Energy Economics 24 (1-2): 95 – 106 .

Google Scholar Crossref

Herbst, Jeffrey . 2000 a. “ The Organization of Rebellion in Africa .” World Bank ( DECRG) - Center of International Studies Workshop on ‘The Economics of Civil Wars’ , Princeton, NJ .

Google Scholar

Herbst, Jeffrey . 2000 b. States and Power in Africa: Comparative Lessons in Authority and Control. Princeton NJ : Princeton University Press .

Google Scholar

Homer-Dixon, Thomas, Blitt, Jessica. 1998 . Ecoviolence: Links among Environment, Population, and Security. Lanham, MD : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers .

Google Scholar

Huntington, Samuel P. 1968 . Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT : Yale University Press .

Google Scholar

Jacobs, Jane . 1984 . Cities and the Wealth of Nations. New York : Random House .

Google Scholar

Kalyvas, Stathis N., Balcells, Laia. 2010 . “ International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict .” American Political Science Review 104: 415 – 29 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Kent, Robert B. 1993 . “ Geographical Dimensions of the Shining Path Insurgency in Peru .” Geographical Review 83 (4): 441 – 54 .

Google Scholar Crossref

Khalilzad, Zalmay . 1995 . “ Afghanistan in 1994: Civil War and Disintegration .” Asian Survey 35 (2): 147 – 52 .

Google Scholar Crossref

Kilcullen, David . 2013 . Out of the Mountains: the Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla. London, UK : Hurst & Co .

Google Scholar

Klare, Michael . 2002 . Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict. London, UK : Macmillan .

Google Scholar

Konaev, Rita, Spencer, John. 2018 . “ The Era of Urban Warfare Is Already Here .” Foreign Policy Research Institute. Accessed April 24, 2018. https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/the-era-of-urban-warfare-is-already-here/.

Google Scholar

Krugman, Paul, Elizondo, Raul Livas. 1996 . “ Trade Policy and the Third World Metropolis .” Journal of Development Economics 49 (1): 137 – 50 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Lacina, Bethany, Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2005 . “ Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths .” European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie 21 (2-3): 145 – 66 .

Google Scholar Crossref

Lake, David, O’Mahoney, Angela. 2004 . “ The Incredible Shrinking State: Explaining the Territorial Size of Countries .” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5): 699 – 722 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals | ISI

Lall, Ranjit . 2016 . “ How Multiple Imputation Makes a Difference .” Political Analysis 24 (4): 414 – 33 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Landau-Wells, Marika . 2018 . “ High Stakes and Low Bars: How International Recognition Shapes the Conduct of Civil Wars .” International Security 43 (1): 100 – 37 .

Google Scholar Crossref

Loc . 2011 . “ Lockheed Martin Receives Urban Operations Training System Contract Award .” Accessed November 26, 2019. https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2011-01-18-Lockheed-Martin-Receives-Urban-Operations-Training-System-Contract-Award.

Google Scholar

Lischer, Sarah Kenyon . 2005 . Dangerous Sanctuaries: Refugee Camps, Civil War, and the Dilemmas of Humanitarian Aid. Ithaca, NY : Cornell University Press .

Google Scholar

*Lujala, Päivi . 2010 . “ The Spoils of Nature: Armed Civil Conflict and Rebel Access to Natural Resources .” Journal of Peace Research 47 (1): 15 – 28 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals

Mao, Zedong . 1937 . On Guerrilla Warfare. Champaign : University of Illinois Press .

Google Scholar

McColl, Robert W. 1969 . “ The Insurgent State: Territorial Bases of Revolution .” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 59 (4): 613 – 31 .

Google Scholar Crossref

McCormick, Gordon H. 1992 . “ From the Sierra to the Cities: The Urban Campaign of the Shining Path .” Technical report. Santa Monica, CA : Rand National Defense Research Inst .

Google Scholar

O’Ballance, Edgar . 1998 . Civil War in Lebanon, 1975-92. Berlin : Springer .

Google Scholar Crossref

Peters, Ralph . 1996 . “ Our Soldiers, their Cities .” Parameters 26 (1): 43 .

Google Scholar

Petraeus, James F. Amos, Nagl, John A., Sewall, Sarah B., Howell, David. 2007 . The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual: U.S. Army Field Manual no. 3-24: Marine Corps Warfighting Publication no. 3-33.5. Chicago : University of Chicago Press .

Google Scholar

Reno, William . 2001 . “ How Sovereignty Matters: International Markets and the Political Economy of Local Politics in Weak States .” In Intervention and Transnationalism in Africa: Global-local Networks of Power, edited by Callaghy, Thomas M., Kassimir, Ronald, Latham, Robert, 197 – 215 . Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press .

Google Scholar Crossref

Salehyan, Idean . 2007 . “ Transnational Rebels—Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Groups .” World Politics 59: 217 – 42 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Salehyan, Idean . 2009 . Rebels without Borders: Transnational Insurgencies in World Politics. Ithaca, NY : Cornell University Press .

Google Scholar Crossref

*Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart, Stuckey, John. 1972 . “ Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965 .” In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Russett, Bruce M. , 19 – 48 . Beverly Hills, CA : Sage .

Google Scholar

Spencer, John . 2017 . “ The Army Needs an Urban Warfare School and It Needs It Soon .” The Modern War Institute. Accessed November 26, 2019. https://mwi.usma.edu/army-needs-urban-warfare-school-needs-soon/.

Google Scholar

Taydas, Zeynep, Peksen, Dursun. 2012 . “ Can States Buy Peace? Social Welfare Spending and Civil Conflicts .” Journal of Peace Research 49 (2): 273 – 87 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals | ISI

Thomson, Henry . 2016 . “ Rural Grievances, Landholding Inequality, and Civil Conflict .” International Studies Quarterly 60 (3): 511 – 19 .

Google Scholar Crossref

Tilly, Charles . 1992 . Coercion, Capital, and European States, AD 990-1992. Oxford, UK : Blackwell .

Google Scholar

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø, Buhaug, Halvard. 2015 . “ Insurgency and Inaccessibility .” International Studies Review 17 (1): 6 – 25 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

United Nations . 2012 . Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2011 Revision. New York : United Nations .

Google Scholar

United Nations . 2015 . Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2014 Revision. New York : United Nations .

Google Scholar

Urdal, Henrik . 2005 . “ Defusing the Population Bomb: Is Security a Rationale for Reducing Global Population Growth? ” Environmental Change and Security Program Report 11. Washington, DC : Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars .

Google Scholar

Urdal, Henrik . 2006 . “ A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence .” International Studies Quarterly 50 (3): 607 – 30 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Urdal, Henrik . 2008 . “ Population, Resources and Political Violence: A Sub-national Study of India 1956–2002 .” Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (4): 590 – 617 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals | ISI

US Joint Chiefs of Staff . 2013 . “ Joint Urban Operations: Joint Publication 3-06 .” Technical report. Accessed May 10, 2019. https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/jp3_06.pdf.

Google Scholar

Vautravers, Alexandre . 2010 . “ Military Operations in Urban Areas .” International Review of the Red Cross 92 (878): 437 – 52 .

Google Scholar Crossref

Vreeland, James Raymond . 2008 . “ The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War Unpacking Anocracy .” Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (3): 401 – 25 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals | ISI

Wallace, Jeremy . 2013 . “ Cities, Redistribution, and Authoritarian Regime Survival .” Journal of Politics 75 (3): 632 – 45 .

Google Scholar Crossref | ISI

Watson, Julie . 2011 . “ $170 Million Mock City Rises at Marine Base .” NBC News. Accessed November 26, 2019. http://www.nbcnews.com/id/41258569/ns/us_news-life/t/million-mock-city-rises-marine-base/.

Google Scholar

Weidmann, Nils B. 2016 . “ Micro-cleavages and Violence in Civil Wars: A Computational Assessment .” Conflict Management and Peace Science 33 (5): 539 – 58 .

Google Scholar SAGE Journals | ISI