On a nice morning in March 2019 I was biking near Lake Rotorua in New Zealand; I was here as part of my sabbatical "adventures". On this bike ride, I spotted some dark birds in the water. It was three black swans.

Black Swans was considered in impossibility in the 1600s in Europe. Here it was considered a fact that there were only white swans. All that changed when Europeans traveled to Australia and spotted their black swans.

This was an upset in Europe as they would have to redefine how they understood how animals related; how their pigments could be different and how they had been blindsided by only considering their data set not considering there could be different kinds of swans.

Once they examined it they realized their mistake and afterward it was hard to grok why they would ever have thought there were only white swans. It should be obvious black swans is also a possibility.

This experience brought forward the Black Swan Theory which in summarized form looks like the following: