NFL future bets are a fun and exciting way to start off the NFL season. They give you something to follow throughout the season, and if you get it right, they can offer fantastic value. The unpredictability of the NFL produces a “favorite” for the award that usually starts off at +500 or longer. Today, we will be looking at the MVP odds for 2019.

The 2018 MVP race quickly became a two-horse race, especially when Todd Gurley‘s knee ensured he would not be a factor. In the end, the gradual decline of Drew Brees down the stretch ensured Patrick Mahomes deservingly won the award. In this article, we will look at some of the runners and riders for the award, breaking down whether the MVP odds reflect good value.

You can find the best value for all of the players below here.

Patrick Mahomes +600

Mahomes was absolutely superb last season, throwing for over 5,000 passing yards, with 50 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. Whatever metric you look at, Mahomes passing was off the chart. The only aspect that screams regression is the sheer numbers that he put up, as repeating both the passing yards and touchdowns is highly unlikely.

In 2017, Carson Wentz put up a TD% of 7.5 and nearly everyone and their grandmother screamed about regression. Well, Mahomes had a TD% of 8.6 last season. Yeah, regression seems likely to me. If he does not repeat that performance in 2019, then his MVP chances may be hurt, simply by comparison to his 2018 numbers.

An added complication is the currently outstanding situation regarding Tyreek Hill. Hill was responsible for 12 touchdowns and nearly 1,500 of those passing yards. However, his impact on the team stretches beyond numbers, as he opens the field up for the other weapons.

Despite all of this my colleague Nick Zeller-Singh laid out all the reason Mahomes deserves to be the front-runner and receive serious consideration for your money. This price, with the high chance of some regression and the Hill question mark, does not offer great value for Mahomes when it comes to the MVP odds.

Andrew Luck +1200

The 2019 season was a little bit of a two-part season for Andrew Luck. Returning from a shoulder injury, he started the season off slowly. In the first three games, he averaged just 5.33 yards per attempt, getting above six yards per attempt in just one of those games. In the rest of the season, he averaged 7.68 yards per attempt, dipping below six yards per attempt just once.

If we extrapolate those numbers from the end of the season and include those three games, then Luck would have just crept over 4,900 yards. Throw in bringing this team back from 1-5 to make the playoffs, and he would have at least been in the discussion if those numbers had been there.

What would have counted against him last season was the hype around his offensive line. Because of how bad his offensive line has been in his career, the brilliant performance of this group deserved the respect they got. However, this season that will likely be taken a little more for granted, leaving the attention solely focused on Luck. These MVP odds do not present the greatest value, which is perhaps the reason I would look elsewhere, but it would not shock me if he won the award at the end of the season.

Aaron Rodgers +1200

Now we are getting into the value region of the MVP odds because Aaron Rodgers played injured last season and still had 4,442 passing yards. Only throwing for 25 touchdowns is a concern but it is the only time in his career he has had less than 30 when playing a full season.

This season brings a new head coach, with a new philosophy, which has its pros and cons. The basics of this system originate from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, and we saw how Mahomes made that work. If Rodgers stays healthy, and gels with this coaching staff, he could put up numbers which challenge Mahomes. However, the slight uncertainties mean that these MVP odds are too short for my liking.

Carson Wentz +1600

If it weren’t for injury in 2017, we would likely be talking about Carson Wentz‘s chances of winning his second MVP award. Prior to that injury, in 13 games Wentz had 33 touchdowns and 3,296 passing yards, leading the Eagles to an 11-2 record.

By no means are they Mahomes numbers but in a normal year 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns gives you every chance at being MVP. Arguably, Wentz now has a better cast of characters around him than he did in 2017, meaning there is a realistic chance he could at least get close to those numbers in 2019. These MVP odds present solid value on a pick for Wentz, with a point still to prove, to challenge Mahomes for MVP.

Baker Mayfield +2000

Baker Mayfield went from being viewed as a talented but petulant quarterback, to the legitimate present and future of the Browns franchise in 2019. In 13 starts last season Mayfield has 3,725 yards and 27 touchdowns. Now with the arrival of Odell Beckham, he has even more talent surrounding him offensively and should have a chance to improve those numbers. The only concern is that with so many egos and names on one team, will Mayfield find himself sharing the limelight to a point where he does not get the MVP respect he deserves?

Deshaun Watson +3500

Considering at one point he was so beaten up he could not fly on a plane, Deshaun Watson did incredibly in putting up 4,165 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 551 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns. Now imagine what he can do if the Texans give him a shred of protection in 2019. The potential results are impressive to think about, but can they do it? The jury is still out on that one, hence the large odds.

The stand out positive for Watson is that he has a tendency of standing out in the big moment. Be that a big run or a clutch touchdown the camera loves him. If I was looking for an outside quarterback bet this season, Watson would be the man for me.

Le’Veon Bell +5500

Ok so this is a little extreme but bear with me here. Let’s imagine the scenario where age, or the lack of Rob Gronkowski, hits Tom Brady hard and the Patriots struggle. The team that steps into the breach and takes the AFC East is going to have at least one player get MVP attention. There is every chance that player is a healthy Le’Veon Bell coming off a missed season.

It is not unrealistic to think that Bell could be instrumental both in the running and passing games. In his one full season in 2014, Bell had over 2,000 combined yards, and he came close to doing it in both 2016 and 2017 when he missed time in both seasons. If you are looking for a fun bet this season, then Bell to win MVP could be just that.

Aaron Donald +8000

A defensive player has not won MVP since 1986 when Lawrence Taylor achieved the feat. On one hand, you might say the chances are slim. On the other hand, you might say they are due for one. If it is going to be any defensive player, then it will be Aaron Donald, who has been a monster his entire career. In 2018, he had 20.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, 41 QB hits and 25 tackles for loss.

It is hard to imagine how he can beat some of those numbers in 2019, and as they were not enough last year he will need to — but Donald is a one-man wrecking crew. If Donald figures in the outcome of a match or two for the Rams this season and puts up impressive numbers, there is an outside chance he might be able to sneak a much-deserved award. If nothing else it is worth a $1 shot just to say you were the one who bet on it when it happened for the first time in 33 years!

Picks

Carson Wentz +1600

Deshaun Watson +3500

LeVeon Bell +5500

Aaron Donald +8000