Hurricane Sandy

Commuters waited in line along the Jersey City waterfront commuters to board a ferry to New York City after Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey in 2012. Officials warned these kind of delays and inconveniences would return if one of the 105-year-old rail tunnels is taken out of service for repairs ( John O'Boyle | The Star-Ledger)

If one of Amtrak's 105 year old, storm damaged Hudson River tunnels has to be

, be prepared for a commuting nightmare.

Even if you work in the suburbs.

While officials said they are talking about "what if" contingency plans, they warned commuters that everyone's trip to work will be affected, even if they don't ride the train or work in New York.

"It would create a transportation nightmare that has so many negative ramifications for our economy and our quality of life," said Jamie Fox, New Jersey Transportation Commissioner. "Anyone who thinks if one (tunnel) gets shut down, that life will go on normal is sadly mistaken. It will affect everyone."

Amtrak officials sounded the alarm last October that the tunnels had 20-years of life (or less) left before they'd have to be closed one year each for repair. If one tunnel has to be closed for emergency repairs, the number of trains per hour would dwindle from 24 to six, said Craig Schulz, an Amtrak spokesman.

"There is no silver bullet that will solve the transportation problem if the tunnel goes down," Fox said. "We've dealt with crisis before, 9/11, the Manhattan blackout, (so) there are contingency plans. But those incidents involve a couple of days, not an extended period of time."

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Most rail commuters will switch to a bus or car, "causing significant traffic everywhere, on any highway in northern New Jersey," Fox said, naming some of the states biggest highways, I-80, 78, 287, Routes 4, 3, 17, 46, the Parkway and Turnpike as candidates likely to see more traffic.

"

, including people who are not on the system (to and from New York)," said Jeffrey Zupan, Regional Plan Association senior fellow. "If you drive, more people will be driving. With one million trips a day, everyone will be affected, not just train people."

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What would your commute look like? Very different, longer and crowded, experts said.

The post Hurricane Sandy commute saw people lined up for blocks along the Hudson County waterfront cities of Jersey City and Hoboken, waiting to get on ferries, after rail tunnels were flooded. The Holland Tunnel was only open to buses, which transported riders from emergency park and ride lots set up in counties served by storm damaged commuter rail lines to New York.

The biggest problem is that there isn't extra capacity in other trans-Hudson crossings to take more commuters, except for ferries.

"We're leaning on a network that over the last 50 years has not laid a single new lane or track across the river," said Andrew Lynn, Port Authority director of planning and regional development.

A plan would likely modeled on what was done after Hurricane Sandy and the 9/11 terrorist attack, which relied heavily on ferries to replace closed rail tunnels, said Peter Rogoff, U.S. Undersecretary of Transportation.

"Absent of that, I know of no such plans," Rogooff said. "[The tunnels] aren't going to fail tomorrow, but we have no time to waste."

New York City Transportation Commissioner Polly Trottenberg said the regional plan that would look "a lot" like what was done when trans-Hudson rail tunnels were flooded after Hurricane Sandy.

"There is a regional discussion, informed by Sandy," she said. "We'd run more ferries, re-route some buses and encourage people to work from home."

Those plans would depend on the condition of the tunnels and duration of repairs.

"Obviously it would depend on the level of shut down. It would be catastrophic for the region," she said.

What are the constraints? Except for ferries, the bridges, tunnels and PATH are maxed out or close to it.

The Port Authority Bus Terminal, the Lincoln Tunnel and the New Jersey highways leading to it are at capacity and bus commuters are complaining about increased delays.

Ferries have extra capacity now to absorb more passengers, but augmenting service would be limited by how many additional vessels ferry companies could lease. How many more passengers could use ferries also constrained getting them to the waterfront, which use the same routes as the Lincoln and Holland Tunnels, experts said.

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Switching rail commuters to ferries and the PATH system would work for riders who live on the Hudson and Bergen County waterfront, but wouldn't be as easy for workers coming from Middlesex, Morris, Somerset, Monmouth, Passaic or other suburban counties, experts said.

"Getting to PATH or the ferries isn't easy to do in the current transportation system," Zuppan said. "Someone who lives in New Brunswick, what do they do? They'd get off in Secaucus and go to Hoboken and get on a ferry that doesn't go where they want to."

Only one ferry system, NY Waterway, has a bus shuttle from it's midtown dock to various points in Manhattan.

Buses or driving would be a likely option for rail commuters, but they could face limitations, such as banning passenger vehicles carrying less than three people.

"People would have to use the bus terminal or drive," Zupan said. "People will have to take things that are less desirable."

The next question is who gets the little commuter rail capacity that's left?

"The first question is who get those 6 trains?" Zuppan said, who assumed Amtrak's two hourly trains would continue running. "NJ Transit has four instead of 20 (trains). The big question is what lines get them?

Would that mean two trains an hour each get allocated for the Northeast Corridor, and Morris & Essex lines, he questioned.

"There will be economic ramifications," said Amtraks Schulz. "Regardless of how the numbers shape up, there will be a reduction and people still need to go to work. How we do it, remains to be seen."

A contingency plan is not a substitute for building the Gateway Project, Fox said. That project would add two new tunnels to allow the existing tunnels to be taken out of service for one year and repaired one at a time. It would add tracks on the New Jersey side and create an annex to Penn Station in New York.

"We can increase ferry service and mandate HOV, but there are only so many lanes, buses and ferries," Fox said. "No magic wand will solve this. I'm more worried about the Gateway project moving forward."

Larry Higgs may be reached at lhiggs@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @commutinglarry. Find NJ.com on Facebook.



