When Harry Reid decided he would retire, it shook the structure of the Senate and created a high-profile race to succeed him. Though Reid insists that Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto (pictured with him above) will beat GOP Rep. Joe Heck, the contest is razor-thin. | AP Photo 16 moments that defined the battle for the Senate

The 2016 fight for the Senate majority was filled with tension, drama and surprises — so much so that two days from the finish line, the outcome is still very much in the air.

Both parties scored last-minute star recruits that upended the Senate map, and both sides intervened in primaries to ensure their favored candidates emerged unscathed. States initially thought to be major fights such as Ohio dropped from the radar, while the political terrain surprisingly shifted to red-hued states such as Missouri and Indiana. And throughout much of the year, a controversial and unpredictable Republican nominee caused problem after problem for Mitch McConnell and GOP senators running to save their majority.


Here’s POLITICO’s look at the 16 moments that defined the battle for the Senate in 2016:

1. Reid retires – teeing up a Nevada battle royale

Harry Reid suffered a devastating injury while working out on New Year’s Day 2015 but vowed to fight on, despite Republicans gearing up to defeat their most hated foe in his difficult reelection contest. But by late March, Reid decided he would retire, shaking the structure of the Senate as well as creating a high-profile race to succeed him. Now Nevada’s Senate race is pivotal to either party’s hopes of Senate control, and though Reid insists that Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto will beat GOP Rep. Joe Heck, the contest is razor-thin.

2. McConnell gambles on the Supreme Court

Just hours after Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died in February, McConnell (R-Ky.) shocked everyone by announcing Republicans would not allow President Barack Obama to fill the vacancy. Democrats cried foul and vowed to turn the Senate elections into a referendum on McConnell’s blockade. But Trump’s bombastic behavior after claiming the presidential nomination consistently overshadowed the vacancy on the nation’s highest court. If anything, Republicans have used the issue to rile up their base to re-elect conservatives.

3. The Senate vote that would resonate three years later

The most consequential vote in the 2016 election actually happened three years ago, on a universal background checks bill written by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). Toomey’s support has led to endorsements by Everytown for Gun Safety and Americans for Responsible Solution, groups that typically favor Democrats. But Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s (R-N.H.) vote against background checks caused ARS to rain ads down on her for years, muddying her self-proclaimed credentials as an independent voice for the state.

4. Democrats choose sides in Pennsylvania

To hear Democratic senators and strategists tell it, they tried for a year to work with former Rep. Joe Sestak, a charismatic but off-beat politician seeking the party’s nomination to challenge Toomey. But as Sestak resisted their entreaties, party bosses began to look elsewhere before finally settling on Katie McGinty, a former Washington operative. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee then dropped big money to aid McGinty, a calculated gamble that easily could have backfired with a Sestak win. But McGinty prevailed in the April 26 primary, and Democrats are bullish that she can beat Toomey.

5. Establishment goes dirty – and wins – in Indiana primary

Well before Evan Bayh, establishment Republicans were at work clearing away another nuisance (for them) in the Indiana Senate race: Marlin Stutzman. Influential GOP groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Senate Leadership Fund intervened on behalf of Republican Todd Young and, in SLF’s case, went negative against the tea party-backed Stutzman – a rarity for a group in the broader American Crossroads network. Young went on to easily defeat Stutzman in a May primary.

6. Rubio rattles Senate map

Republicans were begging Sen. Marco Rubio to change his mind and run for reelection this spring, but the Florida senator kept resisting their entreaties and stated it was “unlikely” he would change his mind. With a crowded primary and no strong contender emerging, the GOP was poised to surrender the seat to Democrats, and perhaps control of the Senate along with it. Then, two days before the June 24 filing deadline, Rubio reversed himself. He instantly he became the front-runner and reshaped the Senate map.

7. GOP whiffs in Colorado

Republicans struggled to find a challenger for Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), with potential recruits such as prosecutor George Brauchler and Rep. Mike Coffman declining a bid. Then, Jon Keyser failed to secure the necessary number of signatures to qualify for the GOP primary, prompting a legal challenge. Keyser eventually got on the ballot, but Darryl Glenn – a county commissioner with backing from Ted Cruz – prevailed in the June 28 primary. With that, the GOP’s one real chance to take out a sitting Democrat evaporated.

8. Bayh launches his comeback

Former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh stunned the political world in July when he entered the Indiana Senate race, turning this once-easy GOP hold into what appeared to be a certain Democratic pickup. The Bayh name is legendary in Indiana politics, but an onslaught of negative ads and critical press coverage surrounding his lucrative post-Senate career and whether he really lives in Indiana damaged Bayh badly — and the race is a dead heat heading into Tuesday.

9. GOP outside groups stun with $42 million haul

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC run by a former top aide to McConnell, became a powerful force this cycle as the establishment-blessed destination to park donor cash for Senate Republicans. And one figure illustrated its success: $42 million. That was the amount SLF and an affiliated nonprofit, One Nation, raised just in August, thanks mostly to casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and his wife. The haul – along with a better-behaved Donald Trump – spooked Senate Democrats and calmed uneasy Republicans, at least for a little while.

10. The ad that put Kander on the map

Missouri Democrat Jason Kander, the breakout star of the cycle, made quite the splash in September with probably the most memorable ad of 2016. Kander, an Afghanistan War vet, assembles an AR-15 blindfolded while endorsing background checks. The 30-second ad gave Kander a jolt of national attention in the Missouri Senate race, where veteran GOP lawmaker Roy Blunt’s reelection bid had been somewhat on the radar but not on the list of most at-risk seats. Now, a Kander victory could very well hand Democrats the majority.

11. Democrats land major recruit in New Hampshire

Democrats landed former senators and governors in their recruiting efforts to take back the Senate, but none topped New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan. One of the highest-ranking female politicians in the country, Hassan immediately turned Ayotte’s reelection quest into a slog, drawing tens of millions of dollars in ads as the candidates battled for more than a year over the small New England state. Without Hassan, Democrats may have had to cede the state to Ayotte. Instead, it turned into one of their best paths back to the majority.

12. So is Trump a role model?

Speaking of Ayotte: Senate Republicans have long done a delicate dance around Donald Trump, but few GOP candidates have had as tortured a relationship with their nominee than the New Hampshire senator. That became clear during an Oct. 3 debate when Ayotte said “absolutely” when asked whether Trump was a role model for children. Hassan, and other Democrats pounced on Ayotte’s comment, which went viral and prompted Ayotte to walk it back.

13. GOP flees Trump after controversial hot-mic tape

GOP senators were long lukewarm on Trump, but the Oct. 7 publication of an “Access Hollywood” video showing him making sexually aggressive boasts about women sent incumbent Republicans dashing away from their nominee. Sens. John McCain of Arizona, Rob Portman of Ohio, Ayotte and Rep. Joe Heck (R-Nev.) all unendorsed Trump, throwing the party into disarray. Heck in particular suffered in the aftermath, with conservative hardliners criticizing him as he at times appeared to reconsider his decision.

14. The death of Mark Kirk’s reelection bid

Republican Mark Kirk was already struggling to win a second Senate term. But he extinguished any chance he may have had against Democrat Tammy Duckworth by questioning her heritage as she discussed her family’s military background during an Oct. 27 debate. Though he apologized the next day, Kirk was hit with a torrent of bad headlines and lost endorsements from the Human Rights Campaign and Americans for Responsible Solutions – two groups that had underscored his bipartisan cred.

15. Burr jokes about shooting Clinton

Republicans did little to hide their displeasure with North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr’s relaxed campaigning style, including a vow to wait until the final weeks of the race to hit the trail in earnest. Once Burr got going, his rust showed — especially behind closed doors. Late last month, CNN published audio of him joking that there should be a “bullseye” on a picture of Hillary Clinton. Burr, now running neck-and-neck against a Democrat he was expected to easily beat, had to apologize.

16. Last-minute scramble ensues in Wisconsin

Few expected the race between Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Russ Feingold to be competitive in the final days of the cycle. But Johnson allies stubbornly insisted the state was still in play, and they were proven correct. Outside groups in both parties — including Senate Majority PAC, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Senate Leadership Fund — scrambled to pour millions in last-minute cash into the race. Feingold remains favored, but the latest poll from Marquette University Law School showed a 1-point match.

