A month before the Nov. 6 election, the Oregon governor's race remains tight, a new poll shows.

A survey commissioned by The Oregonian/OregonLive and KGW (8) shows that 49 percent of the respondents would vote to re-elect Democratic Gov. Kate Brown, while 45 percent would choose Republican Rep. Knute Buehler.

The online survey of 356 likely voters by Riley Research Associates had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points. That means it's also possible that Buehler actually has a small lead or that Brown is headed to a crushing victory. Among the ballot measures, the survey clearly pointed to strong opposition to an initiative to ban public funding for abortions. The two tax initiatives were within the margin of error and could go either way.

"The governor's race seems to be about as expected," said Mike Riley, president and research director of Riley Research Associates. Buehler has "about a 4-point deficit at this point. That's consistent with the other polls I've seen."

Women provided 58 percent of Brown's support, explaining in part why her campaign has focused on abortion rights and reproductive health care.

The survey showed that Measure 103, which would ban taxes on food, could be extremely close. Roughly 80 percent of voters have already made up their minds to support or oppose it.

Voters are similarly split on Measure 104, which would make it more difficult for the Legislature to trim tax breaks; however, nearly a third of the voters surveyed remain undecided.

Meanwhile, voters strongly oppose Measure 106, the abortion funding measure. Fifty-six percent said they would vote no, versus 34 percent who would vote yes. A majority of respondents oppose repealing the state's sanctuary law as proposed in Measure 105, although that result is barely outside the margin of error. At the same time, a majority of those polled support Measure 102. It would amend the state Constitution to allow governments to issue debt for affordable housing projects involving non-government organizations, such as nonprofits.

The survey targeted a selection of voters who would represent typical turnout in Oregon, reflecting region, gender and political party. Democrats accounted for 44 percent of respondents, Republicans represented 34 percent, the non-affiliated comprised 11 percent, and other parties made up the rest. Fifty-six percent of respondents were men, which Riley said was a higher percentage than is typical in telephone polls.

"I think maybe that's indicative of a more highly motivated demographic," Riley said, explaining that he did not make any adjustments to account for the higher survey participation among men.

KGW and The Oregonian/OregonLive had requested a larger sample of likely voters than Riley Research Associates was able to achieve with the online survey. Riley said his firm has traditionally done telephone polls but tried the online-only survey as "kind of an experiment."

"While it's not a large sample, I do think it's a robust sample," Riley said. "And it does accurately represent the characteristics of likely voters in Oregon."

-- Hillary Borrud



hborrud@oregonian.com



503-294-4034; @hborrud