Washington (CNN) Republicans haven't won a statewide race in Virginia since 2009, and 2018 doesn't look like the year the party will break that streak.

Sen. Tim Kaine is a heavy favorite to win re-election this fall. A Quinnipiac University poll released last month gave the Democrat an 18-point advantage over Republican Corey Stewart, the chair of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors.

Stewart's candidacy -- fueled in part by a hardline position on illegal immigration and support for preserving Confederate monuments -- has fractured the GOP. While President Trump backed Stewart following his June primary victory, the National Republican Senatorial Committee isn't planning to get involved in the race.

Virginia has quickly transformed into a blue state as the densely populated northern part of the Commonwealth has exerted more influence in determining the outcome of political contests. Stewart's firebrand style will be a tough sell in that region -- and other urban and suburban areas throughout the state.

Kaine also stands to benefit from the structural advantages of incumbency, raising more than $2 million in the second quarter of 2018 and starting July with more than $6 million in the bank. As of late May, Stewart had about $160,000 cash on hand.

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