Despite heavy rain lashing parts of the country in recent weeks the big dry is far from over — and according to the Bureau of Meteorology, the hard times are set to continue.

According to the latest outlook there is a low chance of recovery for drought affected areas in the coming months, and the financial ramifications are expected to take some time to play out.

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Blair Trewin said the heaviest rain had mostly fallen in places less severely afflicted by the drought.

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"If we look at the areas that are running significantly above average for October, you're essentially looking at the south-east quarter of Queensland and the New South Wales coast from about Sydney north to the Queensland border," he said.

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Dr Trewin said broadly speaking, west of the divide had been a bit hit and miss in October because the rain had mostly come in thunderstorms.

"To give one example, Dubbo, which has had a direct hit from a couple of thunderstorms, has had 90 millimetres for the month, but a lot of places around it have had a only 30 or 40," he said.

"It's been a really mixed bag in the inland areas."

Dr Trewin said cool temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean had been a significant factor in the drought so far.

When the Indian Ocean is warm north-west cloud bands are generated, which feed moisture into fronts and lows that commonly move across the south of the country in winter.

This year that moisture has not been there.

What will it take to break the drought?

It is difficult to define when a drought is broken because of the various impacts of prolonged dry weather.

When it comes to rainfall deficiencies, or a "meteorological drought", Dr Trewin said a period of a few of months of above-average rainfall would signify the end of a drought.

But for a farmer it is about income, according to New South Wales Department of Primary Industries agronomist Rohan Brill.

"It is certainly not in the bag until it is in the bank," he said.

For those relying on southern winter cropping, the next winter harvest will not be until this time next year.

What is happening with crops?

The best place for the winter crop in NSW this year was in the south-east, where the rain, Mr Brill said, was "probably more hit than miss."

Mr Brill, who farms in the NSW Riverina, said the crops around him were not great but they were finishing off satisfactorily.

He said even though the yields on his property near Wagga Wagga were low, prices were high, meaning he might break even.

Mr Brill said farmers had been lucky spring conditions had not been too hot.

"The little bit of crop we do have has sort of kept on going," he said.

He said it was probably a similar story for most of the Riverina, and that some areas in the South West Slopes might even make a profit.

But in the north of the state, where winter rainfall is less dependable, farmers are less likely to put a crop in the ground without rainfall triggers.

This means the potential losses from a dry year are lower, but it does add up.

"The issue with them [is] that they've only had one year out of the past five or six where they have actually cracked a good crop," Mr Brill said.

"So although they're not necessarily losing a whole heap of money on the cropping operations, they are certainly not making money either, and they are not able to grow their business."

Risky business

Then there are those who planted a crop that has now failed.

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"The area I think that's probably suffered the most is south-west New South Wales, where most of the crop probably still went in the ground," Mr Brill said.

In those areas further south where winter rain is usually more dependable, sowing would have seemed worth the risk — but it has not paid off for some this year.

Mr Brill said it costs about $200 per hectare to plant a crop in low rainfall areas.

Land in the northern Riverina area, for example, is worth about $2,000–$2,500 a hectare, meaning growers are investing about 10 per cent of their land value with every crop.

But that is just the start. Mr Brill said a crop like canola further east could cost about $400 a hectare.

"That's just for the sort of operating cost of the crop, without accounting for borrowing costs and that sort of thing too," he said.

Only the strong

What makes this drought different from the Millennium Drought is that so far it has been relatively short-lived.

The year 2016 was in the top 10 years on record for southern wet season rainfall.

Low rainfall this year has led to serious deficiencies for large areas across the continent, April - September. ( Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology )

The 2016 to 2018 turnaround shows there are opportunities in droughts.

"The growers that are already strong coming into drought are the ones that can certainly ride the droughts out," Mr Brill said.

"A drought makes a strong grower stronger."

Anyone who was able to afford to hang on to their crops from 2016 to sell them now has turned a good year in 2016 into a great one.

"Feed barley two years ago was only worth $130 a tonne and now we've got $440 a tonne," Mr Brill said.

Knock-on effect if drought continues

If the drought does not break next year, however, the stocks from 2016 will be gone.

"It is going to be a challenge again," Mr Brill said.

"I think really now there's going to be very little grain that won't get sold at harvest time, because the prices are as high as they have been in my lifetime.

"It just seems that no-one is not going to sell their grain."

Mr Brill said if conditions stayed dry it was going to be a huge issue for the whole industry, because it was going to affect intensive livestock producers and associated businesses such as crushers and millers.

"It's just going to have to be an import of a huge quantity of grain from overseas I suppose, or from Western Australia too, who are having a better season than we are," Mr Brill said.

How can farmers reduce the impacts of droughts?

Anyone who can diversify to bring in other income streams is at an advantage in times of drought, but for everyone else it is now about making the most of the rain when it does come.

"This might be just me guided by my sort of 15 to 20 years of experience, [but] we seem to be getting more frequent, one-off intense, summer [rain] events," Mr Brill said.

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Last year his property had about 150mm of rain in December during harvest, which, despite being a "pain" at the time, "actually put moisture in the ground for this harvest."

That moisture needs to be tended to by keeping weeds down over the summer.

Mr Brill said it seemed like common sense in terms of investment.

"If we hadn't have controlled weeds in summertime last year, we would be about $400 a hectare behind," he said.

What's to come?

The Bureau's outlook for the next three months does not forecast any cool or wet changes.

Hot days and nights are expected over the next few months. ( Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology )

"For rainfall, the outlook over many parts of the country is leaning [towards] dry, but perhaps not quite as dry as in some recent months," Dr Trewin said.

The outlook said November in particular is looking dry but there is no strong indication of either a wetter or dryer on the eastern side of the Great Dividing Range.

The hot and dry conditions are expected in part because of the continued cool temperatures in the Indian Ocean and a looming El Nino event in the Pacific.

Dr Trewin said the recent rain had taken some of the edge off the fire risk in the short term, but the fire danger was still high going into summer.

"It won't take long to dry things out again," he said.

Mr Brill said winter crop farmers needed to not bury their head in the sand after the bad season, but to be optimistic and do the basic things right to prepare for next year.

"Make sure that the seed is well cleaned and free of weeds," he said.

"Just do those things well that don't necessarily cost a lot of money."

It is also about making the most of any summer rainfall.

"I think we need to be really mindful of what has worked this year, which has been retaining moisture from summer for this current crop," Mr Brill said.