It can be easy to dismiss harbingers of NFL doom. The league’s numbers remain dominant and much of the sky-is-falling narrative comes from bad faith politics. Yet a close look at the just-completed season reveals that for all the noise surrounding NFL ratings, there is some substance to the panic.

In households (8.6), adults 18-34 (3.7), adults 18-49 (4.6) and adults 25-54 (5.5), the 2017 NFL regular season was the lowest rated since at least 2000. In viewership, it was the least-watched NFL season since 2008 (14.6M).

Much of the discussion of NFL ratings has focused on the sudden two-year drop that began in 2016. Indeed, the drop-off from 2015 to 2016, and then again from 2016 to 2017, was unusually significant movement for a league where viewership is generally stable.

In five key metrics measured by Nielsen — household ratings, p2+ viewership, adults 18-34, adults 18-49 and adults 25-54 — NFL regular season games have declined between 8 and 14 percent in each of the past two years. In only five of the previous 15 seasons did any of those measures rise or fall to such a significant extent: 2002 (adults 18-34 rose 12 percent), 2003 (adults 18-34 fell 14 percent), 2007 (adults 18-34 rose 8 percent), 2008 (adults 18-34 fell 8 percent) and 2009 (all five metrics increased double-digits).

Looking at the overall numbers, there is some truth to the narrative of NFL ratings chugging along before an abrupt fall-off in 2016. After two straight years of declines in 2011 and 2012, ratings and viewership increased in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Part of that was due to moving half of the Thursday Night Football schedule to broadcast television (take Thursday night games out and 2014 was actually down). Even so, on an overall basis, viewership was trending up in the immediate years before 2016.

Look closer and the erosion has been hiding in plain sight for longer than two years. 2017 was the sixth straight year that ratings have declined in adults 18-34 and the seventh straight in adults 18-49. Even in a strong year like 2015 — when NFL games averaged a 10.5 rating and a record 17.9 million viewers — ratings in those demos declined 3 percent (A18-34) and a fraction of a percent (A18-49). That may not sound like much, but when young demos are declining in an otherwise strong year, it indicates erosion that is immune even to a rising tide.

There is a similar trend in Super Bowl ratings, with the adults 18-49 demographic declining six straight years. This year’s 33.4 rating in the demo was the lowest since 2005 and the second-lowest since at least 1992.

It is true that some of those younger viewers have been lost to streaming, and in a year like 2015 that may have made the difference between a slight decline or a slight uptick. It may also explain why ratings have fallen disproportionately in the younger demos. While household ratings and viewership fell 9 and 10 percent respectively in 2017, ratings fell 12 percent in adults 18-49 and 25-54 and 14 percent in adults 18-34 (by comparison, ratings fell 9 percent in adults 50+, in line with the overall decline).

Perhaps as streaming viewership is more integrated within the Nielsen ratings, the NFL’s performance in those demos — and overall — will improve. Or, with streaming viewership still mostly limited to the hundreds of thousands, maybe it will have little impact. There is no way of knowing for the time being.

All of which is to say there have been warning signs for years hidden in the NFL’s outwardly strong numbers. That does not explain the severity of the recent drop-off. However, it does indicate that the league’s problems did not just begin two years ago. A sudden decline brought on by outside factors is one thing. Long-term erosion in young demographics is far less fixable, and as older viewers age out of the demos, a problem that may worsen in the future.

It bears noting that the NFL’s problems would be the envy of any other entertainment property. The NFL regular season outdrew the fall’s top non-football program in ratings (8.6 to 8.4), viewership (14.9M to 14.0M) and adults 18-49 (4.6 to 3.8). Considering that the NFL averages include a slew of 1 PM ET windows and games on NFL Network, that is no small feat.

In addition, the league’s numbers look a bit better when focusing on viewership rather than the rating. Ratings and viewership are discussed interchangeably, but are two separate metrics. Viewership is reported as a raw number that, as the population rises, will tend to exceed previous years. Ratings on the other hand are a proportion of television homes. As the number of television homes rises, it becomes increasingly difficult to match the percentages of previous years (no Super Bowl will ever touch the 60.3 rating for the series finale of M*A*S*H). Both metrics have their limitations; ratings tend to benefit programs that aired in the days of fewer households and channels, while viewership benefits programs that air in the days of ever-rising population growth.

In viewership, 2017 simply represented a return to the status quo of the 2000s. From 2001-08, NFL regular season games averaged 14.4 million viewers. Viewership abruptly rose to 16.7 million in 2009 and stayed within the 16-17 million range through 2016. The jump from 2008 to 2009 is about as abrupt as the drop from 2016 to 2017. The league’s recent heyday ended as suddenly as it began.

If NFL viewership is simply back to the status quo of 2001-08, is that necessarily a crisis? The league was not exactly struggling in those days. Perhaps 2009-16 was an anomaly and 2017 a return to normal. That is admittedly a generous interpretation, but if the NFL can keep averaging around 15 million viewers, it would not be the worst place to plateau.

For this analysis, SMW examined the NFL regular season only. Figures exclude demographic data for the November 7, 2004 early doubleheader window on CBS. That telecast was partially preempted by breaking news. Figures also exclude adults 50+ ratings for the December 25, 2017 Christmas special on NBC and NFL Network.

Historic postseason averages were not available. All 11 2018 playoff games, including Super Bowl 52, declined to multi-year lows in ratings, viewership and adults 18-49.