Support for the Ontario Liberals appears to have jumped back to near pre-debate heights, while support for Tim Hudak’s Ontario PCs fell sharply in what can only be described as a dramatic development just one day before Ontarians go to the polls. The Ekos-iPolitics three-day tracking poll indicates Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals have re-opened a six-point lead, 36.6 to 30.2 per cent. That lead is even more notable among likely voters, where Wynne holds a 41.2-to-33.2 lead.

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The large sample poll, a random sample of 1,332 adults taken over the past three days, suggests the Liberals now have a statistically significant lead that places them well within range of victory with a chance to win a majority of the seats. Last week’s debate followed a common pattern of shifting voter focus from this high ground to the low ground of ethics and regime fatigue, but Wynne has managed to return the voter focus to her themes of education and better services. The Liberals have recaptured the boomer vote and have expanded leads with university educated voters and women.

On demographics, we see the Liberals have re-established their lead with women and those ages 45-64, while the Progressive Conservatives still lead with seniors and – although statistically insignificantly – with men. If there is good news to be found for the PCs in this poll, it is that much of their loss has been concentrated among those under 45, a group with a particularly low propensity to vote anyway. The Liberals have also pulled into a tie with the PCs in Eastern Ontario. The exact cause of this last shift is unclear (and it may very well be a one-time blip), but it could be related to recent confusion over whether a PC-led government would support Ottawa’s LRT expansion.

The poll is considered accurate to within 2.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

A note on our likely voter model:

While looking at our likely voter model, we felt that we might not be giving enough weight to the role of education or age in shaping turnout, as our past research has shown that university and college graduates are considerably more likely to vote than those limited to a high school education or less. Consequently, we have added a new item to the index which assigns a score of 2.0 to those who have completed either a college or a university level education.

To quickly summarize how the likely voter score is calculated:

Past vote behaviour (maximum score of 2 points). The respondent receives one point if they voted in the 2011 federal election, one point if they voted in the 2011 Ontario election, and two points if they voted in both elections.

Emotional engagement (maximum score of 0.5 points). The respondent receives half a point for indicating that they are either angry or hopeful when thinking about Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government.

Intention (maximum score of 2 points). The respondent receives one point for rating their likelihood to vote as six (out of seven) or two points for rating their likelihood to vote as seven (out of seven). Alternatively, the respondent receives two points if they say they have already voted.

Knowing location of polling station (maximum score of 1 point). The respondent receives one point if they “clearly” know the location of their polling station. Alternatively, the respondent receives one point if they say they have already voted.

Age (maximum score of 2.5 points). The respondent receives 2.5 points if they are 65 or over, two points if they ages 45 to 64, and one point if they are ages 25 to 44.

Education (maximum score of 2 points). The respondent receives 2.0 points if they have completed either a college or university education.

Finally, we tally the scores and identify the ~50 per cent of the population that is most likely to show up and vote on Election Day. In this case, we take all those respondents who score 7.5 or greater (out of a maximum possible score of 10.0).