Jolly’s win has many Democrats worried about how to talk about Obamacare. Fla. loss exposes Dem ACA disarray

Democrats can’t even agree whether Obamacare was the reason for their crushing loss in a Florida special election Tuesday.

Now picture how their messaging plan for the health care law is shaping up for 2014.


Republican lobbyist David Jolly’s victory over Democrat Alex Sink has many Democrats privately worried and publicly split about how to talk about Obamacare.

( Also on POLITICO: Full health care policy coverage)

A few Democrats are advocating a drastic rhetorical shift to the left, by criticizing their own party for not going far enough when it passed the law in 2010.

Other Democrats plan to sharply criticize the Affordable Care Act when running for re-election.

Many plan to stick to the simple message that Obamacare is flawed and needs to be fixed —a tactic that plainly didn’t work for Sink.

Taken together, the Democratic Party is heading into an already tough election year divided — instead of united — on the very issue Republicans plan to make central to their campaigns.

( Also on POLITICO: Administration: 4.2 million people signed up for Obamacare plans)

The political tug of Obamacare is neatly encapsulated by Rep. Ron Barber, a Democrat who holds a Tucson, Ariz., area seat. Barber said he’s uncomfortable with his party’s health care message, and added that you “can’t, with a straight face, stand up and say this is a perfect bill.” He wishes Democrats would “be willing to be honest about this legislation and to be willing to point out, and not be defensive, and say what’s good about it and say what we are willing to change.

But illustrating the tension, Martha McSally, Barber’s opponent, appeared at a closed House Republican Conference meeting Wednesday, saying she’s “on offense” against Obamacare, and the Florida results prove her race is winnable.

Vulnerable members of the president’s party appeared to run from questions about it Wednesday.

( Also on POLITICO: Who says lobbyists can't win?)

Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) — one of the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbents — twice waved off a reporter’s questions. Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), who will likely face GOP Rep. Cory Gardner in November, said he would prefer to answer a reporter’s question by phone to offer a “coherent” response. But his aides did not later make him available for an interview.

Democrats are concerned the health care law’s approval ratings won’t rebound by the time voters go to the polls in November. Even more significantly, they fear the law’s unpopularity — along with President Barack Obama’s flagging approval ratings — could keep Democrats home in November, according to conversations with several top lawmakers and aides.

Republicans seem to think they’ve struck political gold, but Democrats aren’t even sure how to interpret the loss. A veteran Democratic fundraiser called the loss a “double whammy,” hurting the party with major donors and energizing Republicans. Some senior members of the party say the defeat in a district President Barack Obama won twice means nothing, and Democrats should not fret. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), who is likely to have a tight race in November, attributed Sink’s defeat to flood insurance legislation, which played a minor role compared to Jolly’s nearly singular focus on the health care law.

( Florida special election results)

This all comes as Democrats and Republicans are gearing up for a brutal battle for control of Congress this fall. Jolly’s victory over Sink, while not a definitive measure of the political climate, is not a good sign for Obama’s party as voters head to the ballot box in less than eight months. Republicans are expected to make some gains in the midterms, but the results in Florida show Democrats could be facing stiffer headwinds than they thought in protecting their five-seat majority in the Senate and chipping away at Republican control of the House.

“Every off-year election, with the exception of two in our history, has been rough on the president’s party. And last night in Florida was no exception,” said Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who is expected to cruise to victory in his reelection bid this November. “Republicans have decided there’s only one issue. I think they’re wrong — I think they’re going to find that horse won’t cross the finish line.”

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Meanwhile, Republicans are giddy and say that the special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional District validates their singular focus on undermining, repealing and altering Obama’s signature legislative achievement.

It’s risky business to overanalyze the results of a special election: Turnout tends to be low and, in this case, voters are eight months ahead of a midterm election that has not yet taken full shape. Each race is different — this Florida district was overwhelmingly white — and local issues will also play a major role.

But the hand-wringing over the impact of Obamacare , and the dissonance in party strategy, illustrates the difficulties Democrats face in presenting a unified front.

For example, longtime West Virginia Rep. Nick Rahall said he tells voters in West Virginia that no one — not even conservative Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — would repeal the law as president. He said he emphasizes his votes to change Obamacare.

“I’m not nervous because I sleep easy at night knowing I cast the right vote,” Rahall said. “And I’m not going to sway with the political winds with out-of-state billionaires who are trying to buy a congressional seat.”

Similar to Rahall, Sen. Mark Begich, an Alaska Democrat, said he will be “very aggressive” in pressing for further fixes to the law.

It’s not only Democrats in red states who are using sharp language to criticize the law. Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon called his state’s health exchange an “unmitigated disaster” and said he’s worked to extend its enrollment deadline and has tried to prevent constituents from losing their current health care plans.

However, most Senate Democrats dismissed the implication that the results in one congressional district should spur a complete shakeup of party strategy in the battle to retain the majority.

“Electoral strategy is not my concern,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, who could face former Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown in November. “My concern is making sure every American has the security of quality, affordable health care. I will continue working to make the law better.”

A Democratic aide said Obama’s low approval rating may drag more on Democrats than the health care law.

Most senior House Democrats said the party should not change course at all, and the special election results meant little.

“Demographics is destiny,” California Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman said in an interview. “This was not as good a district as one would’ve thought it might be because of how it performed in a presidential year.”

Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) even suggested Democrats talk about “what we should’ve done in the first place — single payer,” he said, referring to a far more progressive option for health care reform. Asked if Obamacare would turn out loyal Democrats this fall, he said, “No, no, no. Not at all.”

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), for her part, didn’t discuss changing health care messaging at a closed party meeting. One Democratic source at the meeting said members were privately “angry and disgruntled.”

Anna Palmer contributed to this report.