More from Tasha Kheiriddin available More fromavailable here

So much for the milkle down effect. The campaign by Canada’s dairy producers to support supply management is curdling in the face of a far greater force, a.k.a. the 2015 federal election. With the writ set to drop as early as this Sunday, the Conservative government is pulling out all the stops to shore up its economic credentials, and that means striking a juicy international trade deal, even if it cheeses off the dairy industry back home.

At stake is membership in the TransPacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-country trade agreement that would give Canadian businesses access to a market of 800 million consumers worth 40per cent of global GDP. The TPP would open up Asian markets, including Japan, and allow Canadian exporters to diversify away from dependence on the United States. It is routinely described as “NAFTA 2.0” — which could make Election 2015 into “Election 1988 — the sequel”.

If so, get set for a wild ride. The 1988 free trade election, which centred on the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA), was possibly the most contentious federal campaign of the last fifty years. It featured fierce debate over national sovereignty, outbreaks of violence, and an exceptionally high voter turnout. Just as today, at the campaign’s outset, the NDP were riding high in the polls, though not in first place. Both they and the Liberals opposed the FTA, while the Progressive Conservatives championed it. In the end, the Tories triumphed with 43 per cent of the vote. Prime Minister Brian Mulroney’s government ratified the FTA, and its successor, NAFTA, was signed under the subsequent Liberal administration of Jean Chretien.

This time around, the Conservatives say the deal is essential, the Liberals support it in principle, and the NDP favours it unless it guts the supply management system. According to Liberal MP Chrystia Freeland, “Being inside will provide tremendous opportunities and open up some new markets. Being outside would put us at a grave disadvantage compared to our competitors.” NDP leader Thomas Mulcair is more direct: “We simply don’t trust Mr. Harper to protect Canada’s vital interests like supply management.”

With Canada teetering on the brink of recession, depending on which economic expert you consult, the Conservatives desperately need some good economic news to take into the election. With Canada teetering on the brink of recession, depending on which economic expert you consult, the Conservatives desperately need some good economic news to take into the election.

These positions are not surprising, given that dairy farmers claim that there are 44 federal electoral districts in Ontario and Quebec where they have a “significant footprint”, in other words, where they could make trouble for parties that don’t defend their industry. This poses a conundrum for the NDP in particular, which needs to maintain its seats in fortress Quebec, and make gains in Ontario.

But for the average voter outside those ridings, there’s not a lot to love about supply management. The quota system inflates the price of dairy products to the tune of $3.9 billion a year. That translates to roughly $300 per family per year, a cost which proportionately hits poor Canadians the hardest. Even for producers, supply management has a downside, forcing them to purchase quotas and pay interest on their loans, and limiting their growth potential.

With Canada teetering on the brink of recession, depending on which economic expert you consult, the Conservatives desperately need some good economic news to take into the election. The TPP could be just the ticket, allowing them to campaign on the promise of growth as opposed to the current lack of it. In addition, provoking a fight with the NDP would help polarize the vote along left-right lines, squeezing the Liberals in the mushy middle, which is right where the other parties want them.

So while the Conservatives risk losing some votes by tossing supply management under the campaign bus, they figure they’ll gain more by achieving a deal on the TPP. Whatever the outcome, they will milk it for all it’s worth.

Tasha Kheiriddin is a political writer and broadcaster who frequently comments in both English and French. After practising law and a stint in the government of Mike Harris, Tasha became the Ontario director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and co-wrote the 2005 bestseller, Rescuing Canada’s Right: Blueprint for a Conservative Revolution. Tasha moved back to Montreal in 2006 and served as vice-president of the Montreal Economic Institute, and later director for Quebec of the Fraser Institute, while also lecturing on conservative politics at McGill University. Tasha now lives in Whitby, Ontario with her daughter Zara, born in 2009.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.