While Key governs more from the centre than the right, his government has balanced the budget, and achieved several significant economic reforms, such as partial privatisations of three power companies and the national airline.

Privatisations

New Zealand had widespread privatisations in the 1980s and early 1990s. They were economically necessary, but very unpopular. Since then it has been regarded as political suicide. Indeed, in 2008 Key promised no first-term asset sales.

He kept his word, which was vital. Both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott paid for their broken promises. But in early 2011 Key announced that if re-elected, National would sell a minority 49 per cent stake in the three state-owned power companies, Air New Zealand and a large coal mining business.

Like NSW Labor's Luke Foley in the recent NSW election, the New Zealand Labour Party tried to turn the 2011 campaign into a referendum on the proposed sales. Polls showed the sales had very little support. But National's vote rose, and Labour's dropped to a record low. How could this be?

The PM, the Queen and success: an irresistible combination for centre-right leaders. Kent Blechynden

The answer is that the public trusted both Key, and his motives. They did not agree with the asset sales, but he spent 10 months explaining why they were important: to free up capital to invest in schools, hospitals and broadband, while retain ultimate state control. This model is what the Baird government has since called "asset recycling".

Key is sometimes seen as the explainer-in-chief. He fronts the media seven to 10 times a week. He spends three days of every week going up and down the country talking to New Zealanders, often answering questions. He even holds town hall meetings chaired by local newspaper editors, where punters can question him on pretty much any topic. Not everyone leaves happy, but the majority appreciate him explaining why he is doing a particular thing.


Another significant economic reform was a tax switch package – income tax rates were dropped and GST increased. This was not announced before an election, but still ended up broadly supported. Rather than announce it out of the blue, the government had an expert tax working group look at how to improve the tax system, released their recommendations, and debated it in public for many months before the government adopted them. The public don't like surprise policies any more than business does.

Kiwis confident

John Key has been National Party leader for nine years and prime minister for seven. During that time Australia has had six prime ministers and seven opposition leaders. Not by coincidence, polls have shown that the majority of New Zealanders think the country is heading in the right direction. Even during the worst of the global financial crisis, New Zealanders overwhelmingly thought the country's direction was sound.

Key's personal ratings have also been high. The latest public New Zealand poll to measure them had his approval rating 39 per cent higher than his disapproval rating. By comparison Tony Abbott had a net approval of negative 33 per cent, Canada's Stephen Harper negative 32 per cent, the UK's David Cameron at positive seven per cent and Barack Obama at negative six per cent.

Malcolm Turnbull will be hoping if he emulates John Key, his poll ratings will do the same.

David Farrar is the director of Curia Market Research, a leading opinion polling company in New Zealand, that includes the New Zealand National Party as a client. He also blogs at www.kiwiblog.co.nz