Ref's Performance Analysis for 2016

REF'S POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION: Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.1 - Actual vote as of today: Clinton 48.0, Trump 46.6 (0.7% Error)

REF'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION: I predicted 48 of 50 states correctly.

In the eleven states I identified as battlegrounds, my average error was 2.09%. I called five of those states with less than 1.0% error, including Florida, missing it only by 0.1%. My projection of Florida: Trump 49.2, Clinton 47.8. Actual Result: Trump 49.1, Clinton 47.8. To see all battleground states, click here.

METHOD:

I used the same method I have used since 2008. I analyzed thousands of polls throughout 2016 to develop a voter model. I compared national numbers and state numbers in developing this model. I applied this voter model to 142 polls in 11 battleground states from the last two weeks. I also applied this voter model to the national polls. I achieved very high accuracy in both predictions.

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION: I projected the national popular vote with an error of only 0.7%. You can see a summary of how I did this here, including time stamp. Actual Popular Vote: Clinton 48.0, Trump 46.6

MY PODCAST FROM THE MORNING BEFORE THE ELECTION. I called the election for Trump the day before the election on my podcast based on early turnout reports. This prediction proved right on 47 of 50 states. I switched New Hampshire to Hillary later in the day when doing my final projection because of several bad polls, which proved correct. My final projection called 48 of 50 states correctly.

Here is a link to my first electoral projection on 11/4/16, archived at freerepublic.com. In this projection, I was projecting that Trump would win Michigan. I nearly gave it to Trump in the last projection, but the national polls broke for Hillary and CCES poll had it at six points, so I didn't.

I also made a video of this first projection linked here. Bad audio.