Very good report.



DEA also believes El Chapo is in the same area, so that could be

"circular information".



DEA had a window of opportunity to render El Chapo but the WH would not

let them do it. God forbid we upset our lovely MX neighbors.



I've never seen the wife of the Guat Prez alleged links to the Zetas. I

can verify that if desired?



Reva Bhalla wrote:



> PUBLICATION: Background/analysis

> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source

> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX defense/intel source

> SOURCE RELIABILITY: B

> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3

> SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: secure

> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva.......... continues on next page

> We believe el Chapo is currently hiding out in Petén, Guatemala near the> Mexican border. Starting in about 2006, los Zetas and Sinaloa smashed> the existing Guatemalan cartels in the north and took over. From> 2004-2006 the Guatemalan military was reduced from 25,000-15,000. This> was part of the peace accords. A lot of these guys who lost their> positions in the military went into police, a lot went into organized> crime and a lot went to Mexico. From there you could see the influx of> the cartels.> I can tell you that the Mexican army has presented very detailed plans> to Calderon on plans for a major offensive against the cartels,> identifying exactly which nodes they have to hit, artillery positions,> etc. it was all mapped out. Calderon is strongly against it though. He> doesn't want to give the army that power, doesn't want to deal with the> backlash, and the biggest question is, who then controls the trade if> you take out these guys? the demand for drugs doesn't just go away.> The cartels, particularly los Zetas, are operating with the help of> Sandra Torres de Colom - wife of Guatemalan pres who really calls the> shots. There's a lot of suspicion that she is a former guerrilla (URNG)> and has installed her relatives and other guerrillas in the government> and intelligence apparatus. She doesn't have support of the military,> who as you say is taking the side of the landowners who oppose her. She> would like to become president but there is a clause in the constitution> that prohibits any 'relative' of the president from running. She could> work around this by a) changing the constitution b) claiming she's not a> blood relative so therefore she is eligible or c) maybe even divorce the> guy.> The Mexican army is attempting to gain better control over its air space> through radars and other systems to interdict the flow of drugs via air.> While it's easier for the cartels to simply take the product straight to> the US, it's risky. So, it's easier for them to buy one way tickets up> the supply chain, from Colombia to Venezuela to Guatemala and then from> there take it over by land into MX and across the border it goes into> the US. MX wants Guatemala to also improve its control over its airspace> to help patch up coverage over this border but Colom continues delaying> any deals to obtain these systems. (went over the specs of what> Guatemala has, essentially not enough). Of course there is a lot of> corruption involved but in one of these deals the Brazilians were> providing them credit and everything to make it go through. Still> nothing happens. (he is implying that Colom doesn't want to enhance> security along the border)