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March 29, 2018

Governor Ducey Vulnerable to Democratic Challenger

To:

Interested Parties

From:

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

Governor Doug Ducey is vulnerable in the upcoming general election, despite his name identification and incumbency advantage. Democrats have been outperforming expectations across the country

since President Trump’s election, even in historically deep red

places like Alabama an d PA-18. We have sta rted to se e chan ges even here in A rizona, the 2016 e lection

was significantly closer than Obama’s reelection campaign: Clinton fell short 46

-49 percent

compared to Obama’s 44

-54 loss. The electorate in Arizona is changing and it is becoming more competitive for Democrats. In the past, conventional wisdom was to give the enthusiasm edge to Republican in midterm years. But, this year is different

—

both across the country and here in Arizona

—

46 percent of likely voters are enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming general election. But, Democrats are the most enthusiastic (58 percent), significantly more so than Republicans (47 percent) and independents (36 percent). Beyond the circumstances that set the stage for the general election, there is Ducey himself. He has been in office for almost four years and voters are underwhelmed by him both personally, and more importantly his performance as governor. Only 41 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Ducey, and among independents only 35 percent. More than half of voters (54 percent) are lukewarm or negative towards Ducey

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