By EARL ANTHONY WAYNE and CHRISTOPHER D. KOLENDA

(The following article first appeared in the U.S. political website “The Hill” and is being republished in Pulse News Mexico with specific prior permission.)

An effective peace process is possible and desirable in Afghanistan. Success, however, will require a careful, step-by-step course to test bona fides, build confidence, reduce violence and encourage the difficult negotiations in which Afghans themselves determine the political future of Afghanistan.

U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad has been working to re-engage the peace process in visits to the region, in meetings with international players, and in fostering last month’s detainee swap — two kidnapped professors from American University of Afghanistan in exchange for three Taliban prisoners in Afghan government custody.

The detainee release was a welcome sign that the Afghan government and the Taliban are interested in continuing efforts toward peace, and it signals hope for a fresh approach to confidence-building. However, the complicated process to accomplish the swap and the finger-pointing along the way underscore the serious challenges to seeking an end to the 40-year war in Afghanistan and the 18 years of major U.S. engagement.

The detainee release was a welcome sign that the Afghan government and the Taliban are interested in continuing efforts toward peace.

Earlier approaches pursued by the Barack Obama and Donald Trump administrations were based on rational analysis of how to get the parties to the table. Efforts starting in 2010 sought to enact a difficult set of confidence-building measures to convince the Taliban to meet with the Afghan government. After a sequence of actions was agreed upon between the United States and the Taliban, Afghan President Hamid Karzai objected that his officials must meet with the Taliban before other measures took place. That scuttled the process for over a year.

In 2013, an effort was made to achieve progress by opening a Taliban political office in Doha. The United States assured the Afghan government that the Taliban office would not look like an embassy or use the name “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” When the Taliban staged an ostentatious opening ceremony that violated these assurances, Karzai was outraged, having already suspected U.S. motives, and progress was halted.

Hopes for a peace process increased in 2018 with a three-day Taliban-Afghan government ceasefire, after which the Trump administration, led by Ambassador Khalilzad, initiated talks with the Taliban.

During previous negotiations, the Afghan government, at Taliban insistence, was sidelined.

During these negotiations, the Afghan government, at Taliban insistence, was sidelined. In response, rumors swirled in Kabul that Khalilzad hoped to create an interim government, with Afghanistan’s national security adviser making public accusations against Khalilzad. Talks seemed frequently punctuated by mass-casualty Taliban attacks. Yet, after nine rounds, negotiators crafted a deal in which the Taliban offered assurances on counterterrorism and an agreement to begin peace talks with the Afghan government in return for U.S. military withdrawal. The agreement still needed approval by the United States and Taliban leadership.

President Trump invited the Taliban to Camp David to ink the accord and begin talks with the Afghan government. When Taliban attacks killed a U.S. soldier, however, President Trump canceled the process. Relief in Washington and Kabul was palpable among those who doubted the agreement would lead to serious Afghan-to-Afghan peace talks. Since then, fighting has intensified and casualties have increased.

This difficult history illustrates what behavioral scientists know well: That when the stakes are so high, decisions are often based more on emotion than objectivity. Afghans have been at war for over 40 years. Hundreds of thousands have died. Emotional scars run deep.

Afghans have been at war for over 40 years. Hundreds of thousands have died. Emotional scars run deep.

Confirmation-bias entrenches viewpoints. For those fearful of the Taliban, statements attributed to Taliban commanders about defeating the Afghan government and denying women’s rights carry more weight than Taliban official statements about counterterrorism, human rights and peace. Those favoring a rapid peace process tend to draw opposite conclusions. Reasoning does not easily change minds.

To enhance chances for success, a peace process must account for the animosity and mistrust. The United States should make clear that Afghanistan’s future must be decided by Afghans alone and that there will be no separate U.S. peace with the Taliban. It is important to recognize that the Afghan government perceives that it has the most to lose. Requiring large concessions from it is likely to spark unrealistic demands for the Taliban.

The U.S. approach needs to test credibility and build trust via a step-by-step process, and, if successful, work toward reductions in violence and toward Afghan political negotiations. Efforts may best advance by initially pursuing simple measures that do not require large concessions and building from there. These could include coordinated statements of peace principles, shared disaster hotlines, joint civilian casualty investigations, and so on. If the Taliban fail to partake in such steps, then the futility of additional efforts will be clear. Both sides need to demonstrate and build credibility, however.