Only after markets dropped through the floor in reaction did Trump come back on Friday with the plan his administration should have prepared months earlier. Anyone with open eyes could see that the United States has not been testing for covid-19 at effective levels. South Korea, arguably the gold standard for response to the pandemic, was testing as many people per day as the United States has tested in total. You fight an epidemic by discovering cases of the disease, isolating the carriers and their contacts, and repeating — over and over until the rate of new exposures drops. Everything rests on discovery, and discovery means testing.

For weeks, the barker demanded of us: Will you believe me or your own eyes? “The testing has been going very smooth,” and “anyone who wants” a test “can get one.”

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Sometimes a coincidence speaks volumes. As Trump’s bluster was collapsing like the stock market, the mayor of Atlantic City announced a lawsuit to force demolition of the former Trump Plaza casino. I can remember when the young Donald Trump swept into that forlorn shore town promising a renaissance built from gold-painted plastic and cheap ceiling mirrors. For years, though people with open eyes noticed that Atlantic City tourism was mostly day-trippers playing quarter slots and eating free buffets, Trump continued to boast of nonexistent glamour, all the way to bankruptcy. Now the long-abandoned Plaza is raining debris as it crumbles.

Same old dog, no new tricks.

Despite the market’s cheerful reaction to Friday’s performance, don’t unbuckle that seat belt. The government’s sorry response to this pandemic will produce bad news for some time to come. Belated testing will now reveal what a head start covid-19 has been given.

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Look to Mother Nature, not the Trump administration, for help. Covid-19 is a new disease but not entirely unknown. It’s a coronavirus, and we have a lot of experience with these pathogens. Like influenza strains, most coronaviruses are seasonal, simmering down during warm weather.

Scientists aren’t entirely certain why this is so. There is some evidence that respiratory viruses flourish in low humidity. Other investigators theorize that school, not climate, is the controlling factor: In summer, germy kids aren’t herded into rooms to sneeze and cough on each other and take their infections home to their vulnerable elders. Seasonal deficiencies of vitamin D related to low sunlight may also be implicated.

In the present national emergency, as Trump belatedly declared it on Friday, understanding seasonality is less important than experiencing it — the sooner the better. With the approach of spring, we’ve reached the point where flu season typically begins to ebb. Similar behavior by the new virus could make up for some of the feckless government response.

But only for a little while. Let me repeat: only for a little while. As we know from flu, seasonal viruses typically return after a few months on hiatus, and sometimes they have mutated into even more virulent forms. Given the pandemic spread of covid-19, the world will still be mopping up from this outbreak when the virus — if it’s seasonal — comes roaring back. Will we be ready? More ready than the first time?

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I can imagine two possibilities. Over the next month or six weeks, the extent of the covid-19 epidemic in the United States will be written in death, suffering and economic dislocation. But then we luck into a seasonal reprieve. New infection rates drop. Makeshift ICUs in tents and convention centers discharge their last patients and bury their last corpses. Rather than relax, U.S. authorities use the cease-fire to prepare a massive defense. As the end of summer nears, every student in the country gets a daily temperature check at school. Instant fever scans greet commuters, airport passengers, audience members. Every fever triggers a covid-19 test. Every positive test triggers aggressive contact tracing and quarantines.

Meanwhile, scientists work furiously on treatments and a vaccine.

The other scenario: After a gruesome spring, covid-19 cools off thanks to a seasonal reprieve. Desperate to flip the campaign script, the president declares victory and dismisses talk of a new outbreak as politically inspired to hurt his reelection chances. His acolytes sing along. Thus shielded once more by Trump’s incomprehension, covid-19 roars back in November, worse than before.

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Our one possible lucky break — seasonality — will matter only if Americans keep up the fight no matter which way the numbers are trending. We all know the president won’t admit his mistake in minimizing this threat. But please, Mr. Trump: If you finally understand the stakes, blink three times.

Read more from David Von Drehle’s archive.