TORONTO

In the wake of two recent byelections, support for provincial New Democrats is surging while Liberal support is plummeting, says a stunning new poll.

According to a poll commissioned by Broadview Strategy Group, and released Monday, NDP support has soared since the Sept. 6 byelections in Kitchener-Waterloo and Vaughan, and they are now in a virtual tie with the PCs — NDP 36% and the PCs 35%. Liberals are in third place at 22%.

Polling Company Forum Research projects that would translate into a minority Conservative government. The NDP lose seats because the votes are badly distributed for them.

Based on these figures, Forum projects a seat count of PCs, 48; Liberals, 30; and NDP, 29.

The poll also revealed Premier Dalton McGuinty’s popularity is slumping. Only 24% of those polled approve of his leadership of the party.

McGuinty faces a leadership review at the party’s annual general meeting in Ottawa the weekend of Sept. 27-30.

Delegates will be asked to vote on a motion asking them if they want a leadership convention. Of Liberals polled, 39% said they wanted a leadership convention, while 43% of all Ontarians polled said they’d favour a review.

“Nine years in power have caught up to the Liberals quite suddenly,” said Broadview spokesman John Laforet.

“The party brand has taken a number of hits and even Liberals are ready to cast off McGuinty, “ he said.

“This is all the more serious as Liberal delegates prepare to vote on his future at the end of the month,” he said.

He added that in light of the poll’s results, McGuinty might want to consider resigning before the vote, if he is looking for a graceful exit.

While it’s unlikely a majority of party faithful will try to unseat a sitting premier, there are rumblings within the party that it’s time for someone else to take the helm. At the same time, it would be difficult for the party to hold a leadership convention while they are in a minority situation.

Among potential successors, Municipal Affairs Minister Kathleen Wynne enjoyed the greatest support (24%); former health minister and mayoralty candidate George Smitherman had 20% and Finance Minister Dwight Duncan had 18%.

The poll — done on Sept. 14 — surveyed 1,058 people and has a 3% margin of error.