Winning the roll adds another layer of decision making and if you have tested you’ll know what the right choice is. The decision of either choosing your battlefield or taking the shields and allowing your opponent to have their battlefield may determine the outcome of the match or at the very least have a huge influence on the outcome. This article is inspired by one of our Patrons latest creation, a roll off simulator which can tell you how a particular group of characters will perform against another group of characters in a million trials. With this info we can gain insight into match ups, attack the metagame and make game plans. Check out the simulator here although it seems to work better on desktops. Below I will give examples as to how and why this is relevant.

The Case of Kylo2/Fn-2199 vs Blue Hero3

In the previous format Kylo2/FN was the boogieman. When playing against it with blue hero3 I felt fine when I won the roll but behind when I didn’t. Any astute player could notice the difference in the value of the dice and instinctively know that they were going to lose more than they would win but how much of a difference? According to the simulator when both FN and Kylo are elite they will win the roll off 60 percent of the time, that means 60 percent of your matches Kylo would start off with 2 shields on him, that’s virtually 14 health. This compares to when 3 guy would win and they would have started off with 2 extra shields. This equates to about two dice resolutions, one of a 2 damage die and one of a 2 shield side or if you want to equate it to resources and cards its about two cards and two resources. I could tell you on what side of the match up I wanted to be on but its pretty apparent where you wanted to be. If you wanted to be competitive you could in no good conscious choose to play Blue Hero 3.

We fast forward to a whole new world where Kylo2/FN is still playable but was nerfed badly. If we do the roll off simulator now we see that the tide has turned indeed and that Kylo2/FN is an overwhelming underdog to Blue Hero3 with a win rate of only 30 percent in the roll off. With the loss of a die and the rules change I would feel comfortable bringing Blue Hero3 to a tournament where this deck was going to be a big player.

Knowing Your Percentages vs The Boogieman

Most formats will have a top deck and knowing how your deck compares in the roll off will be important to deck construction and strategic planning. If you happen to be a severe underdog against an archetype in the roll off you can bring a great battlefield for your deck that doesn’t benefit them making the decision for them difficult. However, If you are losing the roll and can’t claim your battlefield reliably then that strategy is moot. You better have a dynamite plan if you are sleeving up a deck that will lose the roll and is slower to claim. Sabine/Ezra is the current boogieman and to throw out a quick comparison it has a 70 percent roll off win rate vs Blue Hero3. Here we go again! Many a Sabine players have lamented the 3 disrupt side but now you can see that its pulling a lot of weight in the roll off. This particular deck is hard to attack with this roll off knowledge because it has a battlefield it can abuse, it has great action economy and it wins the roll often. This makes using a good battlefield hard since they are pretty quick to the claim.

Knowledge is Power

This information may currently seem somewhat pointless since Sabine Ezra has one of the highest roll off win rates out of any character combo, its tied with Han/Snap, Han/Rey, 5 die Villains with Guavian but is bested by 5 die villain with Tie Pilot, but being aware that you are going to lose is still empowering information. This can lead you to focus on having a good battlefield while still being able to claim. Ezra Sabine is fast but its not that fast. Sabine’s dice are inconsistent because the disrupt and shield side aren’t generally desirable which results in rerolls and Ezra has a variety of different symbols to resolve.

You can also focus your strategic attack on a game plan that is good vs them as apposed to building around your battlefield. I currently don’t think that this deck is as big of a problem as any previous format boogieman. There are counters, you just have to playtest to find them. Perhaps 5 die villain with Tie Pilot is a good place to start?

This deck has a lot going for it: a high chance to win the roll off, amazing high end power and a battlefield that is generally only good for your deck. This list is rather raw but there’s certainly something there. Perhaps this would be better off going all in on guns but this approach is way more interesting in scope and has a higher ceiling.

I hope this has been helpful to you. This was really satisfying to write and I hope I can keep producing things like this that are not only helpful to me but also to you. I want to highlight the roll off simulator again since I think its a great tool for strategic planning and something you should have access to. Happy playtesting and as always,

-NJCuenca

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