The Tories are preparing for a general election and this is how they plan to win it Dominic Cummings is making sure the Conservative Party is fighting fit for an election

After summoning government aides to a 7.55am Monday morning meeting, Dominic Cummings – Boris Johnson’s most senior aide – kicked off this week by heading to Conservative Campaign Headquarters. His purpose? To make sure the party is fighting fit for an election.

Whether or not the Tories want an election, the majority of MPs now view it as unavoidable. The only question is whether it’s in Autumn or Easter. An Autumn election is not something the Conservatives plan to call, but it is something that could be forced upon them sooner rather than later.

The Conservative working majority is down to one, Brussels is refusing to renegotiate, the Tories are bitterly divided over Brexit, and two of its MPs have said on the record that they would do the once unspeakable and vote down their own government to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

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Given that’s where the UK is currently headed, there’s talk of Labour staging a no confidence motion in the government the first week that Parliament returns in September. It follows that the Tories are preparing to fight one. All government leave has been cancelled. No. 10 staffers are subject to campaign hours – 8am and 7pm meetings.

An election before October 31st would be unpredictable. There’s already a debate going on over whether the UK could leave the EU without a deal mid-election campaign. Given that it’s currently the default position, there’s a chance it could.

The Tories’ election game plan

Whatever happens with the UK’s exit, there are some fundamentals that will remain the same when it comes to the way in which the Tories plan to fight an early election. The Conservative party will fight an election on Brexit, the NHS and restoring law and order.

The plan is to pitch themselves as the party of Brexit, which is intent on delivering the will of the people. Cummings hails from Vote Leave and keeps a close watch on voter trends. Insiders say that he sees a route to a Tory majority that rests on the Conservative party reuniting those who voted Leave in the EU referendum and destroying Nigel Farage’s Brexit party in the process. They also hope that an election fought on Brexit would see the Lib Dems, as an unambiguously Remain party, take a big chunk out of the Labour vote.

This desire to assert themselves as the party of Leave is why No. 10 aides are insistent that they will not call the election themselves. Tory strategists want to fight it on a People vs Parliament footing. ‘It’s essential that MPs and the EU wear the blame,’ says a government aide. The Tories wish to show themselves as the party that’s been trying everything it can to deliver on the referendum result.

Connected to the promises of the Leave campaign is the NHS, which has been in focus since Boris Johnson became prime minister. Prior to entering No.10, Cummings said that for all the complaints about the £350m a week Vote Leave pledge in the referendum, he could “find this [money for the NHS] in days and in ways that would have strong public support”. This week he appeared to go some of the way to doing so with £1.8bn of funding announced. Of the 20 hospitals to benefit from the £850m pot, many are in marginal seats and in the North – an area the Tories see as crucial to winning enough seats to stay in power.

Priti Patel wants “criminals to feel terror”

The other key area the Tories plan to tidy up and then capitalise on is crime. Violent crime has been rising but the Conservatives are keen to retain their reputation as the party of law and order. This is viewed as crucial to remaining in power. Extra funds for 20,000 more police has already been announced. The biggest shock of the reshuffle, which saw 17 members of Theresa May’s Cabinet leave, was Priti Patel becoming Home Secretary. Sacked by May from her previous Cabinet job as Secretary of State for International Development this was seen as a big promotion – and a potential risk.

However, Patel’s tough talk on crime is exactly the message the Tories would want in a general election. “You can’t be too tough on crime in an election campaign,” says a party insider. Right on cue, Patel used her first interview since landing the job to tell the Daily Mail that she wanted “criminals to feel terror”. While Labour and the Liberal Democrats were quick to criticise her, a YouGov poll found that 72 per cent of British adults surveyed agreed with her statement.

Amidst these three focus areas is a general push to make sure the North of England enjoys the same opportunities as the South. This is in part because the Tories believe their new pitch – delivering Brexit, funding the NHS and maintaining law and order – will win them old Labour heartlands in the North.

But at what cost? Privately, Conservative MPs admit that their tough Brexit position will lose them seats in metropolitan areas to the Liberal Democrats or Labour. Their hope is that the loss will be split between the two parties, allowing the Tories to sneak through the middle. With the threat of Nigel Farage’s Brexit party looming, Tory MPs believe they have little choice but to try it. They know they need to win big. If the Tories fall short of a majority, they have few friends left to prop them up in Parliament. Only a majority will do.