Tennis was hurled into the coronavirus maelstrom on Monday after the overnight cancellation of the Indian Wells Masters, the biggest event outside the four majors. It also looks likely that the similarly important Miami Open, due to start on 25 March, will be called off.

Rolling disruptions to the schedule will continue, according to informed sources, although they say it is too early to make a call on the French Open or Wimbledon in mid-summer. Tennis’s participation in the Tokyo Olympics in July – along with that of all other sports – will be determined further down the road by the International Olympic Committee, who so far have dithered with spectacular predictability.

As for the European clay season which begins next month, there is mounting speculation about the viability of Monte Carlo (whose directors are expected to decide within the next 10 days), Madrid, Barcelona and Rome, the lead-up to the French Open.

The Guardian understands that tournaments and the game’s main governing bodies – ITF, ATP, WTA, and the grand slam tournament directors – will be heavily influenced not just by public opinion but regional and global politics, as well as the constrictions of insurance policies.

“It would be foolhardy for a tournament to unilaterally cancel unless it had the safeguard of government or local health authority backing,” an insider close to the organisation of a tournament in Europe said on Monday. He added: “If outside agencies recommend caution or cancellation because of health concerns, no tournament director is going to risk either the lives of players, spectators and staff, nor take a financial hit by going ahead with the event and voiding an insurance policy.”

Estimates of the financial loss in Indian Wells have been put at close to £50m. Miami would take a similar hit. Contracts for Roland Garros and Wimbledon, with their global media reach and sponsorship, dwarf those figures. If the Covid-19 virus wrecks the 2020 tennis calendar, losses could run into the billions.

That is one reason Monday afternoon’s conference of sporting bodies and relevant government departments in London was injected with renewed urgency. Stephen Farrow, the tournament director of Queen’s, attended on behalf of the Lawn Tennis Association, who otherwise have refused to comment on developments until they receive further advice from the department for digital, culture, media and sport. The crisis will be a significant test of judgment and vision for the new DCMS secretary of state, Oliver Dowden, as well as the sports minister, Nigel Adams.

The All England Club was also reluctant to talk publicly on Monday, but will join with Queen’s in underwriting refunds for early purchase of tickets if it does have to cancel Wimbledon, which would be a volcanic interruption to the season.

The AELTC and the LTA say they are, “monitoring the situation” – an understandably cautious response in a fast-shifting narrative, but, at some point, they will have to face the music that was ringing in the ears of the Indian Wells tournament director, Tommy Haas, late on Sunday evening, on the eve of qualifying.

He had little choice once the Riverside County Public Health Department declared a public health emergency for the surrounding Coachella Valley after a confirmed case of Covid-19.

Doesn’t bode well for the tour if IW cancelled for 1 confirmed case in Coachella Valley. Broward county (Miami Open home) has more confirmed cases. Monte Carlo borders northern Italy currently in lockdown. Rome Masters? French Open? Wimbledon?!!! — Jamie Murray (@jamie_murray) March 9, 2020

Dr David Agus, professor of medicine and biomedical engineering at the University of Southern California, said: “There is too great a risk, at this time, to the public health of the Riverside County area in holding a large gathering of this size.”

That will be the concern, too, for the organisers of the Miami Open – two cases of Covid-19 have been registered in the area, forcing the cancellation this week of the Ultra Music Festival in southern Florida, as well as the annual Calle Ocho Festival in Little Havana next weekend. Tennis, like any public activity, cannot operate in social isolation.

Haas still wants to hold the Indian Wells Masters later in the year, but that is a slim hope, given the crowded calendar – even if it looks almost certain the schedule will be shredded in coming weeks and months.

While the ATP has been silent on the hourly-changing dilemma for the sport, Steve Simon, chairman and chief executive of the WTA, responded quickly. “First and foremost,” he said in a statement, “there isn’t anything more important than protecting the health of our players, staff, volunteers and fans who attend our events. We understand the decision, which has been made in the interest of public health and safety, which is the top priority at this time.”

The quandary for players – especially those with little prospect of advancing in the tournament – is whether or not to go home or wait until Miami decides what to do on 25 March. There was no early guide provided on whether or not players would lose ranking points because of the cancellation, although it would make more sense to freeze them. It would be palpably unfair, for instance, if the incumbent Indian Wells champion, Dominic Thiem, were to surrender 1,000 points without hitting a ball.

A prominent watcher of developments will be Andy Murray, who had targeted Miami as a possible comeback after four months out nursing complications to his hip surgery. Although he has a residence in Miami, he would be reluctant to take his young family into such an environment. It is possible he will aim at returning to tennis deeper into the summer, perhaps at the 250 Libema Open grass tournament in the Netherlands, where he had promised to make a previous comeback, before stalling. However, he will be as uncertain as the rest of the sport about when and where he plays tennis again.