Head-to-head, former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush barely beats his acolyte Sen. Marco A. Rubio in the Feb. 24-25 Howie Carr/Gravis poll of 513 registered Republican voters, but in an open field Bush is in a virtual tie with Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker with Rubio finishing third.

The latest Gravis Insights telephone Survey was conducting using automated IVR polling software, Gravis used a random sample of registered voters. The public opinion poll has a 95% confidence level.

If the Republican Primary election for President were held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, whom would you vote for?

“Pitted against each other, Bush is at 40 percent and Rubio is at 36 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll. The poll carries a margin of error of 5 percent. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding.

But, when the field is opened up to other candidates, the dynamic changes, he said. “We are seeing the early stages of two-man horse race between Bush and Walker.”

In the open field, Bush still leads with 23 percent to Walker’s 22 percent, he said.

“But, Bush v. Walker is, again, inside the margin of error,” he said.

“Rubio is popular, but in his home state, he is taking a back seat to Bush v. Walker,” he said. “Even among Hispanics, Bush takes 24 percent, Walker 23 and Rubio, a Cuban-American, comes in third with 11 percent—roughly, his same level of support across the state’s Republicans in an open field.”

By law, Rubio cannot run for both president and for reelection to the Senate, but, he does not have to make that decision until May 2016–and by then, the primary season will be winding down anyway.

The other GOP hopefuls offered in the survey fared like this:

If the Republican primary election for President were held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Rick Perry, Ben Carson and Jeb Bush, whom would you vote for?

Check out other results from the poll here:

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Republicans



Democrats



If the Republican primary election for Senate were held today and Senator Marco Rubio was not a candidate and the candidates were Pam Bondi, Jeff Atwater, or Adam Putnam, whom would you vote for?



If the Democratic primary election for President were held today and the candidates were Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Mark Warner, Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, and Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?



Demographic crosstabs are available upon request. Please email us.

Note: the polls were conducted using automated IVR polling technology and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.The poll compromised 513 Republicans and has a 4% margin of error and 435 Democrats with a 5% margin of error. Gravis Insights is a division of Gravis Marketing, Inc.