Bernie Sanders recognizes Washington is as close to a must-win as it gets after his disappointing loss in Arizona on Tuesday. | AP Bernie goes all out for West Coast must-win To have any hope of catching Hillary Clinton in the delegate race, Sanders needs a strong performance out of Washington state.

SEATTLE — Without a big win in Washington Saturday, there’s no path forward for Bernie Sanders. And that cold political reality has turned this state into an unlikely battleground between the Vermont senator and Hillary Clinton.

Sanders recognizes Washington is as close to a must-win as it gets after his disappointing loss in Arizona on Tuesday. With 101 delegates at stake, only New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and California have more delegates at play after this weekend. If he has any hope of catching Clinton, he’ll have to start here, in a state where progressive-oriented Seattle sets the tone.


“If Senator Sanders is ever going to do well, I think it would be in Washington,” explained Gov. Jay Inslee, a Clinton supporter, acknowledging Sanders’ appeal in his state. “That’s no surprise."

Clinton doesn’t have as much urgency to win. She simply needs to keep it close, to deny Sanders the kind of runaway caucus victory that could dent her 300-plus delegate lead and provide him some desperately-needed momentum going into the April 5 primary in Wisconsin, another state that figures to be receptive to his brand of progressive politics. (Alaska and Hawaii, much smaller delegate contests, also hold caucuses on Saturday.)

But it won’t be easy to hold Sanders back. According to one analysis, Seattle ranks No. 1 among the 50 biggest U.S. cities for per-capita contributions to his campaign. He’s got seven campaign offices in the state and has drawn huge crowds in his visits to the Pacific Northwest. While most of the state's high-profile Democrats are backing Clinton, Sanders has the endorsement of the state’s largest newspaper, the Seattle Times -- by far his biggest endorsement from a daily publication.

The political environment is especially well-suited for Sanders. Seattle, which elected a socialist to the city council last year, is in the midst of ushering in a $15 minimum wage. Plus, while the local tech boom has fueled the city’s emergence as a high-profile Democratic money hub over the last decade — Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea Clinton have each stopped by for recent fundraisers — many local Democrats harbor resentment toward party leaders in distant Washington, D.C. over their perceived use of Seattle as little more than an campaign ATM, according to numerous fundraisers and Democratic officials.

Sanders' final Seattle event on the eve of the caucuses, designed to make a big impression, is one that few other candidates would even contemplate: a rally set for Safeco Field, the Seattle Mariners’ baseball stadium with a capacity of well over 50,000.

The optics of an enormous stadium event, closely followed by a big win in Saturday’s caucuses, could leave a lasting impression on news coverage of the candidate while the voting calendar goes quiet before the Wisconsin primary.

“Washington is a place where Senator Sanders is making a stand,” said Jaxon Ravens, chairman of the state Democratic Party. "[It’s] where he’s saying: ‘This nomination process is not over. I am not stepping aside.'"

Clinton’s campaign here has been more modest in scope – though she has nine offices in the state, even the most optimistic of Clinton backers shy away from predicting victory.

Instead, recognizing Sanders' attempt to use Washington as a springboard toward upcoming states, the Clinton campaign has actively targeted key regions (like the more conservative eastern part of the state) and discrete constituencies (such as aerospace union workers) that they hope will back her and temper the senator's margin of victory.

Clinton has also spoken about the Export-Import Bank and trade deals while campaigning in the state, nodding to the bank's large role in supporting a wide range of businesses in Washington. While Sanders has at times derisively referred to the bank as the “bank of Boeing,” he has toned down that criticism in a state where Boeing is the single largest private employer.

In coastal and foreign trade-reliant Washington, his railing against multinational trade deals and the Ex-Im bank haven't quite hurt him as much as some Clinton allies had hoped – the trade debate has taken a different shape here than in the automotive and manufacturing hubs of the Midwest. One reason: while the decline in manufacturing has dragged down the economies of some Midwestern cities, Seattle has experienced a tech boom.

“We’ve experienced economic growth associated with aerospace and other industries that have grown and the secretary has always focused on [those],” said Inslee, pointing to smaller businesses like breweries that have also benefited from the Export-Import Bank. “She is on the right side of this Export-Import Bank, which, without exposing taxpayers to problems, has created thousands and thousands of new jobs in my state. There’s a lot of people driving new pickups in Washington [because of it]."

Gary Locke, a former Washington governor and U.S. commerce secretary, said the debate in Washington has revolved more on the questions of Sanders’ and Clinton’s bigger-picture economic philosophies and their positions on pocketbook issues – like the minimum wage.

“Yes, while Boeing benefits from the Export-Import Bank, so do a lot of medium-sized companies. We understand the value of trade here,” said Locke, who also served as U.S. ambassador to China. But “I don’t think the Export-Import Bank is a key issue here."

Indeed, the economic inequality that has surfaced in parts of Seattle in recent years plays directly into Sanders' economic message.

But Seattle isn't the sole focus of the campaigns. Clinton and Sanders have also taken time away from the state's population center, aware that the majority of delegates in Washington's caucuses are apportioned by congressional district — creating an incentive to campaign beyond Seattle's city limits.

While Hillary Clinton has spent most of her time in and around Seattle – she wooed both Native Americans and machinist and aerospace worker union members on Tuesday -- her husband stopped by Spokane and Vancouver this week. Less populous cities like those stand to be important on Saturday because succeeding in the caucus structure requires having a presence all over the state, even in less populous eastern Washington, explained Ravens.

Sanders has also gone out of his way to visit places like Spokane and Vancouver, because both campaigns expect a large turnout — especially among independents taking advantage of the open system — to drive his vote totals.

What’s less clear, explained Locke, is the degree to which the state’s Democrats will turn out. It's a looming question that stands to hurt Clinton more than Sanders. The state's rank-and-file Democrats, after all, are not accustomed to voting in hugely consequential presidential primary contests due to Washington's place on the nominating calendar in recent cycles.

“Obviously Bernie Sanders has quite a committed young following, and Seattle itself is very, very liberal. So he could benefit from that,” explained Locke. “But then, outside of the Seattle area you’ve got so many supporters of Hillary Clinton. These are people who are not used to caucusing on a Saturday."

