The initial College Football Playoff rankings of 2018 were released Tuesday evening, and the top 4 is No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 LSU and No. 4 Notre Dame

That top 4 teams are the same as the projection 247Sports published earlier this week. Keep in mind that when teams are “comparable at the margins,” the committee placed an emphasis on strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and outcomes against quality opponents.

This is what you need to know from the first CFB Playoff rankings of the year.

History Indicates The First Rankings Matter

The CFB Playoff selection process is no longer in its infancy. We’re in Year 5. There’s precedent to lean on and analyze. History indicates the top 7 in the first rankings should feel great, because 14 of the 16 teams that have reached the playoff have ranked seventh or better in the initial rankings.

Only No. 16 Ohio State in 2014 and No. 15 Oklahoma in 2015 are exceptions.

The Buckeyes, which lost to an unranked Virginia Tech in Week 2, finished the season with a trio of Top 25 wins, including a 59-0 drubbing of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. The Sooners, following a loss to an unranked Texas in Week 5, finished the regular season with back-to-back-to-back top 18 wins, including road victories over No. 6 Baylor and No. 11 Oklahoma State.

Every other team that's reached the playoffs came from within striking distance of the top 4. I wouldn't expect much to change in that regard this year, except that Ohio State at No. 10 will likely have something to say as the season moves along.

Only 13 Teams Can Reach the Playoff

This is pretty simple; any team ranked after No. 13 in the initial poll isn’t going to reach the playoff – West Virginia at No. 13 is the cutoff.

No current two-loss team (be it Florida, Penn State, Texas or Utah) can overcome their resume. Penn State’s Big Ten Championship chances are all but sunk, and you’re not getting into the playoff as a two-loss team without a conference title. The same applies to Florida, which is already blocked out of the SEC Championship game. Texas, for its part, can’t overcome a pair of unranked losses (Maryland and Oklahoma State) even with a conference title. Utah won't get into the CFB Playoff as a two-loss Pac-12 program.

What about UCF? The Knights were given a boost by slotting at No. 12. They went unbeaten last and finished at No. 12 in the rankings. The committee is showing UCF more respect and that matters. However, it's going to be extremely tough for the Knights to make the climb. UCF can’t be any more dominant than it is with an average scoring margin of 24.3, which is third in the FBS behind Alabama and Clemson. The problem is the schedule. UCF’s SOS currently slots 125th nationally per Sagarin. Even with some quality games later in the year (South Florida, Cincinnati) that’s not good enough to get it done. When the Knights finished 12th last year, they had a pair of Top 25 wins. As of now, UCF would not have a Top 25 win on its schedule if it finished 12-o again.

That leaves the 11 Power Five one-loss or undefeated programs. No losses, one loss or even two; it’s from that group that the four playoff teams will emerge. Expect that number to shrink quickly considering four of the 11 have head-to-head meetings against each other this week.

We’re Trending Toward Less Parity

College football made a shift to the CFB committee’s selection process last year. Instead of the group deliberating six times, it would meet one week later in the season and rank teams the final five weeks of the year. That’s resulted in a notable shift in the number of contending programs upon the initial rankings release. Let’s quickly run through the number of Power Five programs with one-loss or fewer upon the date of the committee’s first ranking: 2014 (18), 2015 (15), 2016 (11), 2017 (9), 2018 (11).

There’s been a noticeable drop the last few years in the number of realistic contenders. Part of that is simply that the rankings come out later. But a big portion of it is that college football has less parity than ever.

Alabama’s reached the playoffs every year and ranks No. 1. Clemson’s made the playoff three straight seasons and ranks No. 2. Oklahoma’s won the Big 12 three straight seasons, and they come in at No. 7. Ohio State, twice a participant, slots 10th. Georgia, which reached the title game last year, comes in at No. 6.

Yes, Washington State, West Virginia and Kentucky are non-name brand surprises. But, mostly, the top 13 (the only teams with a realistic chance of getting in) are made up of the usual subjects.