No, 2016 world wine production did NOT drop 5% as headlined elsewhere!

No, 2016 wine production did NOT drop 5% as headlined elsewhere. That might eventually be the case. Or it might not. But it has not happened so far. Because 2016 is not over.

In a poorly written press release sent out yesterday, the OIV (Internationale Organisation du vigne et la vin) estimated that production might be down when all the numbers are in.

Which they are not. The fat lady has entered the opera house, but she has not sung.

And to make matters worse for the credibility of its estimate, the OIV states that its 2015 production numbers are still “provisional.”

Thus Sprach Cassandra

Then, in what appears to be an attempt to cast events as darkly as possible, the OIV states (in present tense as opposed to more appropriate future tense), that 2016 “ranks among the three poorest years for production since 2000.”

While true on its face, context is missing. Indeed, the data presented seems to indicate that production is within normal annual global variations.

A Data Mutilation Tour de Force

The OIV then offers us an amateurish chart that combines fantasy, wishful thinking and total neglect of the numbers seemingly in order to make the a case for a miraculous increase in consumption that could outpace production.

The Devil Is In The Details

A closer look at the somewhat truncated data provided shows that the estimates show increases in three of the world’s top five producers and decreases in two: 2% (estimated) in Italy and a more substantial decrease of 21% in France.