I’ve learned in this job to be overly cautious with older players signed in free agency.



Usually such caution pays off.



Patrick Marleau has had a truly amazing career. Barring something catastrophic, he’s going to finish his career top 30 in goals all-time and top 50 in points. (Adjusted for era, he’s already 27th and 40th.)



He has been a dependable two-way threat year after year, a multi-time Olympian for Canada and a repeated all-star on one of the league’s better teams. He is probably a Hall of Famer. I won’t diminish any of that here.



But, with his 38th birthday two months away, he has also slowed down. Obviously. That’s to be expected. But how much that is the case is a key question for the Leafs now, after they signed him to a three-year deal for $6.25-million a season on Sunday night.



Let me start with the doom and gloom — the charts — and we’ll work our way out of...