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“If there’s another hurricane — let’s hope not — or some other issue related to public safety or national security, that will take priority,” he said.

Goodale seems more worried about the weather than his electoral prospects in Regina—Wascana, which he’s held for 26 years and eight consecutive terms. Data gleaned from phone calls and door knocking has shown “no discernible trend” in his support, which he insists is “holding very solid.”

“I’m very, very optimistic,” he said.

But Goodale faces headwinds that weren’t blowing in 2015, when he beat the Conservative candidate by more than 10,000 votes. This time he’s part of a government. Along with the pressure that comes from his public safety duties, he now has a record to defend on the doorsteps.

“It’s always a greater challenge when you are the incumbent,” he says.

“I think it’s only logical to expect a somewhat closer race.”

Photo by TROY FLEECE / Regina Leader-Post

Regina—Wascana has survived as the lone speck of Liberal red in a province that looks ready to swing even more decisively against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It’s a rare example of what Goodale calls an “intensely personal” race, where the local candidate matters as much as the leader.

His rivals will be looking to connect him to the baggage that comes from four years of Liberal rule, in the hope of overcoming his strong personal brand.

Conservative candidate Michael Kram thinks voters are “savvy” enough to make the link. In his view, a vote for the candidate is a vote for the Trudeau Liberals.