The market for talent in the federal Liberal Party is in severe flux. The players range from well-known public figures to those hardly known at all. Departures include the government ministers Kelly O’Dwyer from Victoria and Michael Keenan from Western Australia (plus Nigel Scullion from the Country Liberal Party) and backbenchers like Senator David Bushby from Tasmania. Those planning on not going anywhere include former Prime Minister Tony Abbott and NSW backbencher Craig Kelly. Those entering the market include Indigenous leader and former ALP president Warren Mundine and others still to be pre-selected even at this late date. This is all happening in the shadow of the likely fall of the Morrison government at the next federal election and that possibility is likely to be influencing the career decisions of MPs.

Scott Morrison has defended the right of politicians to choose a work-life balance. Credit:AAP

Although made up of many personal decisions these movements must be considered as a whole, reflecting on the state of the Liberal Party, its electoral dilemma and the wider talent pool for Liberal MPs. The individual decisions may be about career aspirations or family life or a mix of the two. Some jump and others are pushed. Some are bought off while others grimly dig in. The overall impact of all of this for the Liberals and our parliamentary system is of crucial importance.

These movements can be interpreted as just another part of the natural cycle of politics in which MPs come and go and the system marches on without a hitch. After all, a third of our 76 Senators have jumped or been pushed since the last election. Who is to say that the new Parliament will have less talent than the present one?

Or they can be like the canary in the coal mine, a gauge of dangerous working conditions and an indication of how decisions are made within not just by the Liberals but by all our big major parties.