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Anything is possible, as the last four years of politics in Toronto have shown us. That being said, it’s hard to see Doug winning this thing. Whatever brand of magic Rob has — black magic, perhaps, but magic still — his brother doesn’t have it. And, worst of all for Doug Ford, the guy who does have that weird magic hasn’t actually quit the race.

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It’s true Rob Ford will not be mayor, but he is running for council, in his old ward. His most ardent supporters will turn out for him there, whatever his ultimate diagnosis. Doug should not count on all of the people who were prepared to vote for his brother to automatically vote for him.

To be sure, most of the Ford Nation vote for mayor probably will slide over to Doug. Ford Nation has adopted a siege mentality as the news for their guy has gotten progressively worse over the years, and many can be expected to dutifully mark their X for the man, or the next best thing.

The problem facing the Fords’ political ambitions, however, is this: Doug isn’t in a position to lose any votes right now. Much has been made of Rob Ford having moved into second place in recent polls, behind Tory but ahead of Chow. This is not a sign of strength for the Ford campaign so much as evidence that Chow has been slowing sliding for months. Tory, meanwhile, has been gradually building support. The last poll had him ahead of Ford by 12 percentage points.

That’s a wide gap to close in the time remaining. Doug may get a sympathy bounce, with the obvious tragedy hitting the family, but given how polarized the city has become, and how personally off-putting Doug is, it’s hard to imagine he can even hold his brother’s support, itself only good enough for second place.