The Election Game Build your own coalition, add swings, to see the effect on the likely result

Though framed by the BJP and the Big Media as ‘Modi vs Who’, the 2019 Lok Sabha election is better described as a fight between coalitions. Led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, the National Democratic Alliance comprises 20 parties, the most prominent of which are the BJP, Shiv Sena, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Janata Dal (United), Akali Dal, Pattali Makkal Katchi and Lok Janshakti Party.

The United Progressive has more than 20 constituents, including the Congress, the DMK, NCP, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal (Secular).

The 2019 election is unique because there is this time a third coalition too – the Mahagathbandhan – primarily comprising the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal who have a seat sharing agreement in Uttar Pradesh but with the support of the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh.

– primarily comprising the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal who have a seat sharing agreement in Uttar Pradesh but with the support of the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh. Unattached regional parties which are hoping to win seats in double digits include the Telangana Rashtra Samiti, the YSR Congress of Jaganmohan Reddy in Andhra, the Biju Janata Dal and the Left parties. The composition and nature of these coalitions matter a great deal both at the constituency and national levels, especially if they lead to seat sharing and the pooling of votes.

Mahagathbandhan in the upcoming election by using data from the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly elections in the Uttar Pradesh. With 80 seats, UP is likely to have a significant impact on the upcoming 2019 General Elections. For example, a recent article in The Wire tries to assess the possible impact of thein the upcoming election by using data from the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly elections in the Uttar Pradesh. With 80 seats, UP is likely to have a significant impact on the upcoming 2019 General Elections.

The researchers pursue two methods of assessing the impact of the grand coalition. In the first method, they aggregate results from assembly constituencies (each of which belongs to a particular parliamentary constituency) to create a faux General Election result. The highest vote getter, coalitions also considered, in such a faux Parliamentary constituency is declared to be a winner. In the second method, results from the 2014 general election are recalculated such that the vote shares of all parties in the grand coalition are added together in order to determine a winner. Both methods assume a vote transfer of 100% and no swing against (or for) the BJP.

Their analysis indicates that even without a negative swing the BJP faces an uphill battle in its quest to repeat its landslide 2014 victory in UP, where the party won 71 out of 80 seats (excluding 2 seats that were won by its ally, Apna Dal).

In order to let readers see how coalitions can change electoral outcomes, The Wire has developed an interactive tool with a number of options. The tool below allows you to make your own coalitions and assess the impacts of such would-be coalitions. In addition, it also lets you specify vote swings – that are likely to be a big factor in this election considering the anti-incumbency factor against the BJP/NDA.