Transcript for Election Night analysis with FiveThirtyEight

Hi there on ABC news political director Rick Klein here are New York City headquarters along with Mary Alice parks where tracking. A big night of voting. Primary voting in four states Kansas Missouri Michigan and in Washington. And it being special election in the state of Ohio outside Columbus the twelfth congressional district and have the eyes of the country the last special election. Of the year we want to turn now to our colleague from 538 dot com Nathaniel rake its. A who's joining us throughout the night tonight follow their live lot at 530 it is Hamas freed on every election night particularly this one. And I think I wanna start with the date one this Ohio race because you see in the early numbers come in a 23 point. An edge so far off for the Democrat Danny O'Connor. Most of this is the early vote though Nathaniel what's your read on on how much to read into what we're seeing so far in these vote numbers. Yeah I wouldn't read too much interact. Nearly an hour especially in this district is being buried democratic leaning. A lot of Democrats really excited to get out and vote and special election child parity about a minute I'm glad you're gonna see the people who voted at the earliest possibility really you democratic whereas her expecting Republicans cannot catch up in the Election Day and you. And I want to talk about that big picture that you mentioned because I find this fascinating there's been a handful of these special elections throughout the trough Ara. He's endorsements haven't always sounds matter particularly in the special elections but you guys have them identified a fascinating trend that if it holds true tonight. Obstacles through the fall has very big implications for the for the landscape. Talk us through walk us through some of these numbers is that what how Democrats are doing vs. How you'd expect them to do and it in his generic random year. Absolutely so we have factory how to statistic we all heart isn't even a state or district is based on the presidential partisanship that cedar distraction and we compare their results special election so far this year in places like that Georgia's sixth this checks that Pennsylvania eighteenth this checks on the Alabama senate race doesn't look warm Worrell lost EC that Democrats consistently over performed those states partisan means a lot of these are states or districts a lot of these places are you know our cost 25 and our posterity and our answer new agreement raced within a single digits if not winning. On average the over performance from the partisan margins for our assets in sixteen points in the actually quite a few special elections that we pats aren't parallel sense and Iberian. -- high twelfth at Scott partisan Nina fourteen so he saw that kind of average sixteen point Obama carry forward you would see a democratic win plus two points out on him and it's looking like that's going to be your brain around merits going to be basically Thompson race. But I'm wrong we don't know whether those are. Newly democratic voters someone who's stayed home the last three mid term cycles. Aurora an independent or Republican that switching parties in. Right so special elections are interesting because often they're very low turnout so that means that if you start here princes of the hat. Half of the voters. Actually show up those how could just be. But you know 80% of Hillary Clinton donors and 20% dot com voters. But you'd actually have some special elections this year including one Pennsylvania where turnout has actually been. Even higher knocked down twice sixteen them down normal mid term church and so in this situation obviously currently and the Democrats being went south in that case it couldn't have just been disproportionate turnout Democrats have to that he is when he arson and opponents in her book and voters. And finally Nathaniel let's talk about some of the primaries tonight because. That the specialists and it's a lot of attention but Donald Trump is a very big issue in the Republican Party is also the issue. In the Democratic Party and others to in particular that we are keeping a close eye on in Michigan where the past it was really the action on the democratic side. And Kansas where the action on the Republican side where you looking for in those states tonight. Yes and Kansas you have the sitting governor who was the former lieutenant governor he's never been collected in his -- ranch but he's facing stiff challenge from Chris Caldwell who is this -- very high profile. I'm pretty far right conservative anti voter -- activist -- also a sexy secretary of state and here's Tom trots -- commission on voter integrity so he's that are polarizing figure in -- Los and he endorsed Hampshire I'm a lot of Democrats really just like him in Canada SOB results of that race is actually probably -- and how it Kansas governor's race is holes early polls that breaks shuttle likely Democrat Laura Kelly beating collapse by one point but she would -- city Kirk incumbent governors and Jeff -- -- attempt so that result of that -- really determine need not only kind of -- and it can't just you electorate but also whether that race ends up being in college I Michigan you have a fairly classic race between kind of more stuff later Democrat and a new Bernie Sanders type. Is Gretchen weren T Ernie Santos it is uncle Al's aide many of the third candidate who isn't very well and son army has it that's street Kandahar and he has been he's kind of interesting case because he's mean and sought out to be progressive. He reportedly considered running as a Republican or not join. Democrats are also a lot of the out. True Blue progressives like pretty Anders and Elsie. All right Nathaniel wreckage from 530 we'll check back to you with you throughout the night as we track these primary voting. In four states and the special election in the twelfth and congressional district in Ohio. We'll we back at at top of the hour about 24 minutes from now where the polls washing clothes in those two states. Kansas and Michigan we'll be back with all of the updates as the night goes on of the ABC news not common here ABC news life. Stick around.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.