The widespread reporting that Carlos Sainz will move to Renault appears to come from a single source, but has been reported on sites owned by the same organisation, and since widely copied. It is probably true because getting such a call wrong would be a very public embarrassment, although people in F1 have been known to plant fake stories to stop a deal from happening, and even to make a journalist look silly. However, given the confident language in the stories, one must assume that it is true and that the source is not playing games. For now, however, no one is confirming anything, but it is a move which make sense because Renault was interested in Sainz and may have seen the opportunity to force the issue to get him, as the McLaren-Toro Rosso engine switch is going through.

McLaren wants Renault engines. Honda seems to have decided to supply Toro Rosso instead, as it has no other choices available. This means that Renault and Toro Rosso must settle their engine supply deal. Renault is quite happy to have McLaren because it gives them a third strong team, but money is money and Toro Rosso is contracted to pay some. Thus, Renault might have demanded Sainz as part of the settlement. It saves Red Bull money. Sainz will be happy because Red Bull has nowhere for him to go, apart from staying where he is. And there is a handy replacement ready in the form of Pierre Gasly. It is a win-win-win.

There is no doubt that the other deals are now happening, with McLaren getting Renault, Toro Rosso Honda and, as a result, McLaren retaining Fernando Alonso. When all these deals are confirmed then others will be affected: Sergio Perez was negotiating to join Renault and now will probably have to stay at Force India, alongside Esteban Ocon (who was Renault’s primary target, but is nailed into a Force India contract for 2018). This means that Pascal Wehrlein cannot now move there from Sauber (where he will likely be ousted by Ferrari nominee Charles Leclerc) and so the young German will be left out because he cannot join Williams as he is too young for a drive. Williams’s sponsor Martini requires at least one of the drivers to be over 25 and with Lance Stroll ensconced in one seat, the other must be filled by an older driver. Perez has already said no to Williams. Wehrlein is too young. So will Felipe Massa stay? Possibly, but there is another driver with immediate F1 experience who will be available as a result of all of these moves: Jolyon Palmer. He’s British, which Williams always likes. He is clearly a decent driver but has had rotten luck with Renault. He is the son of a former Williams test driver (so he knows the right people) and there is some sponsorship that might follow him, which Williams would appreciate. All in all, he’s not a bad bet for Williams in the circumstances. Felipe Massa is 36 and money from Brazil has dried up.

Announcements will come as they come, but the market has now moved on to Williams…