Justin Amash speaking at a town hall in Michigan

With The Congressman Critically Considering a Bid For the Oval Office, Is A President Amash Plausible?

On July 9, 2019, news broke that Henry Ross Perot, American businessman and patriot who helped reshape American politics, passed away at the age of 89. Mr. Perot was the last individual to provide a significant challenge to the un-American political duopoly, and now many are left wondering if the chances of a successful third party presidential run have passed with him. But as the 2020 presidential race shapes up to be a contest between a corrupt, senile former vice president and a bombastic, polarizing sitting president, a large plurality of voters across the political spectrum are scrambling for a third option. And as it turns out, Independent Congressman Justin Amash is considering the challenge the late Ross Perot once endeavored.

Mr. Amash has made a name for himself in the age of Trump as the sole voice of constitutionally-conservative dissidence against the will of his former party and the president. He has eschewed partisan loyalty by voting in concurrence with the Constitution, reading the Mueller Report with an open mind and concluding the president obstructed justice repeatedly in a variety of ways, as well as leaving party politics all together.

But after months of speculation and coyly discussing the possibility of running, Amash disclosed he’s closely examining a bid for the White House last Monday. And last Wednesday he revealed in mid-February he paused actively pursuing his congressional seat in order to dedicate more time to his looming and monumental decision. Albeit it is conventional wisdom that only the two parties can take the presidency, it is possible for a third party candidate like Amash to win. After all, these times are anything but conventional.

Now I know that’s a rather bold statement, so let me delineate. The reason Justin Amash has a realistic shot at the presidency is because he’d be the first iconic, well-established candidate to launch a third party bid since the late, great Perot.

Gary Johnson and Bill Weld breathed fresh life into the Libertarian Party through their legitimacy as former governors, which helped them garner close to 5 million votes. However, since the two men hadn’t held office in over a decade, neither were widely well-known or established contemporary political figures. Therefore it was easier for the crony Commission on Presidential Debates to exclude Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein from the debates, despite 52% of Americans supporting Johnson’s inclusion and 47% supporting Stein’s appearance on stage.

But denying a sitting Congressman with a large groundswell of grassroots support would be much more Augean. Besides, with 10% of Michiganders already supportive of a hypothetical President Amash, it’s hard to imagine the congressman not garnering an average of 15% in the polls.

In fact, a political insurrection of sorts could be foreseeable if the Commission tried to bar Amash or any other strongly patronized voice from the debate stage again. Americans now more than ever thoroughly detest the two party system. According to a new NBC/WSJ poll, 38% of Americans believe our two party duopoly is irreconcilably broken, with only 1 in 10 believing our current system works fairly well. In other words, the days of the D.C. machine neglecting third party, independent perspectives are numbered and drawing to a close at a record pace.

Furthermore, there is a severe yet subtle agitation for a third option in our political plexus. According to Gallup’s annual governance survey, 57% of Americans believe a third political party is imperative, only a few percentages off of the historic high of 61% set in 2017. This is great news for Amash’s presidential prospects.

Looking towards the past for a second, in 2003, the first year Gallup started tracking opinions on third parties, 56% of Americans believed the two parties did an adequate job representing Americans. Since then, there has been a steady decline in the belief that America’s binary system represents We The People decently. Within 10 years, only 26% of Americans believed our current system works sufficiently, a 54% decrease. One can only imagine a similar amount or more Americans believed the two party system worked fairly well whenever Mr. Perot aspired to win the White House.

That, my friends, is why the time has never been more ripe for a current legislator, an individual who is articulate, poised, legitimate, and entrenched in national politics, to seek the presidency under a third party banner. But don’t take my word for it; look no further than Americans’ attitudes towards third parties and voting for such parties.

In August of 2018, an Emerson Polling survey found 47% of Americans are willing to vote for a third party candidate. And according to a 2019 February Politico/Morning Consult poll, 35% of respondents said they are willing to vote third party in 2020. Similarly, in October Rasmussen found 38% of respondents were willing to ditch the two parties with 22% saying they were ‘very likely’ to do so. On the surface, this may seem like a dramatic disparity or decrease which wouldn’t bode well for Justin Amash. Howbeit, one must consider how the latter polls are in regards to a presidential election. Unfortunately, more people tend to resort to tribalism during presidential cycles for fear that their preferred team’s dastardly opponent might win the White House.

Nevertheless, theoretically 35% or more could be all that is necessary to win. If President Trump was to receive 33% and Mr. Biden was to garner 32%, Amash’s hypothetical 35% would win the popular vote. But as of 2019, we are still somewhat of a republic, so the popular vote is essentially irrelevant. If Amash spent his time earnestly campaigning in states that are much more embracive of third parties, i.e. Colorado, Alaska, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, etc, he could potentially carry enough states for victory, or at least the largest sum between all candidates.

Keep in mind the results from election night do not determine who becomes president. Based on our partisan nature, we assume delegates will vote unwaveringly for their respective party’s overlord.

As is evident by the 2016 election, there are faithless electors who are willing to buck their party’s nominee and instead vote their conscious. If Amash was to win the largest plurality of states, come within say 75 points of 270 on election night and/or win the popular vote, some Republican and Democratic electors could choose to vote for him since it would ultimately reflect the will of most states and voters. Not to mention it would install a non-partisan to office which would likely diffuse frustrations and the threat of potential upheaval from members of both parties.

Whenever Mr. Perot mounted his historic, independent presidential campaign, he faced the same uphill battles third party candidates endure today, such as ballot access, participation in the debates, and convincing a plurality of Americans to abandon the normalcy of the two party system. Despite these obstacles, Perot managed to garner 39% of public support and lead Bush and Clinton in June of 1992 before he exited the race for nearly 3 months.

We will never know for sure what might have been had Mr. Perot stayed in the race during that crucial time period. But luckily, we may have another chance this election cycle. Justin Amash is capable of procuring the majority of independents, a sizable fraction of Republicans, and even a portion of Democrats. But Justin is capable of more than just that; Mr. Amash has what it takes to win the White House in 2020.