A long-term bottom has become something that has become widely accepted for BTC.

In just 13 months, Bitcoin lost over 70% in the cryptocurrency market. By making use of a 10-week Simple Moving Average, analysts tried to narrow down to signs of long-term changes from the bearish to bullish trends.

Charts for BTC showed signs of lower highs in the bearish trend above the 10-week SMA in the past 13 months. An acceptance is indicative of the bearish to bullish change beginning to trend.

On a 24 hour basis, BTC trading at $3,630 provides for a 2.5% gain. However, the 10-week SMA marks BTC at $3,919.

A convincing break will be when there is a complete confirmation of the longer-term bullish reversal. The 21-month exponential moving average is currently seen at $5,400. Confirmation will happen when the support turned resistance at $5,400 is convincingly broken.

Way back in November 14, 2018, BTC was not able to cross the 10-week SMA on the weekly closing for several times before it fell below $6000. Before November 14, BTC crossed the 10-week SMA in the last week of February and April during the last week of August and third week of July. However, all of these bullish breakouts were short lived. The bulls were trapped on the wrong side of the market.

In the ongoing bear market, the BTC was struggling to breach the 10-week SMA. Only a sustained break was to provide for a bullish reversal.

Currently, the outlook is bearish, and the prices are trading below the 10-week SMA that was sloping downward $3,919.

Yesterday, the BTC closed above 3,566 providing for a sideways channel on the daily chart. The weekly chart continues to be biased towards the bears. The lower end of the channel currently at $3,465 would be breached very soon. If a channel breakdown would be confirmed it would boost the prospects of the drop to the $3,122, the December low.

There is another forecast that states that if history should repeat, the BTC might even bottom to $1,700.

Seasoned investors are of the opinion that the future partly can be revealed by studying the past. At present Bitcoin is entering a stage of accumulation. Several old owners are not trying to sell anymore. Unspent Transaction Outputs indicate that several investors are accumulating Bitcoin. This has resulted in a decrease in the numbers of active accounts. Sharp drop, sharp gains, active and inactive investors sustaining the market cap and time would unveil more.


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