Jameson Lopp, former BitGo and current CasaHODL engineer, estimates that over 4 million BTC have been lost forever and another 2 million BTC have been stolen up to now. Since the genesis block, already 17.14 million Bitcoins have been mined, but there are actually far fewer Bitcoins in circulation.

It’s probably fair to assume that users were more likely to lose their Bitcoin when prices were extremely low compared to today’s levels. Technology enthusiasts who wanted to own some BTC out of curiosity or perhaps did some mining when difficulty levels were substantially lower probably did not put a lot of effort into securely storing their private keys.

Does the BTC Price Take the Lost Coins Into Account?

Some analysts say that the market price doesn’t account for the lost bitcoins and is, therefore, an underestimation of the true value of Bitcoin since the true supply is lower than 17.14 million. Others claim that the market price is determined by BTC that is actually circulating and that the lost Bitcoins cannot be counted as part of the supply. If, by some miracle, the lost coins were to be salvaged, that would increase the available supply and drive the Bitcoin’s price down, provided the demand level stayed the same in the meantime.

There Will Never Be 21 Million Bitcoins in Circulation

Many experts say that in the long-run, the limited supply of Bitcoin will be a key factor driving the price of BTC higher. Taking into account that an estimated 4 million BTC have already been lost, this means that Bitcoins are even more scarce than portrayed to the market.

Nevertheless, it has to be highlighted that it is very hard to precisely determine the number of lost Bitcoins. The estimations are usually made on observing the number of coins that been moved for a long time, but this might include coins of the long-term holders too.

What About the Market Cap?

Another statistic that has to be corrected for the number of lost bitcoins is the total market capitalization. Bitcoin, which is currently worth $6,250, has a calculated total market capitalization of $107 billion. However, the market capitalization should be $82 billion, if we assume that 4 million BTC is lost forever.