Don’t Trust the B in Dugout 23 - Celtic drift out of Europe and into domestic tumult

At 1:30pm on Sunday, a full Pittodrie will reverberate with noise as Celtic and Aberdeen kick off what has become both teams’ biggest game of the season. A Celtic soon back from Russia and in somewhat iffy form against an Aberdeen team who, quite simply, have it all to prove.

There is little to say about Aberdeen that hasn’t been said on this site before this season while less has been said about Celtic - in a way, when it comes to writing juicy articles, Celtic have been somewhat lacking in inspiration for the humble writer given everything has, to now, seemed so easy.

But Celtic have slipped and slid from their previously high standards into, if not trouble, at least a complicated situation. The 3-1 Europa League tie defeat to Zenit St Petersburg showed the best and the worst of this Celtic side - the 1-0 Win at home showed them with boundless energy (if end product may have not have been as effective as required) while the 3-0 second leg loss in Russia showed them at their worst - Ponderous in attack and vulnerable in defence.

It’s all a bit Ronny Deila, and that is both a compliment and a criticism. Deila took time to get his side to an attacking peak (in the second half of his first season) but then saw it slip away soon after into a near full season of listless performances that never threatened to go above 6/10. If anything, the Zenit tie over two legs reflected the first leg against Malmo in the 15/16 Champions League playoff - Deila’s Celtic then produced a first half that saw them, as per Derek Rae’s famous call, breathe “hot jets of fire” but not kill the game off totally (much as they did in Glasgow last week) before eventually succumbing to their own vulnerabilities and going out.

Brendan Rodgers, right now, is witnessing that happening to his own Celtic side but with one key difference - his side’s peak lasted longer and bought him more credit with the fans. But he, much like Deila’s second season, is experiencing a year of 6/10s with the odd 7 or 8 thrown in. Rodgers’ is a second season where, in League Terms, Celtic are one point worse off than Ronny Deila’s second season - a season where the dressing room was gone and players were openly undermining the manager. For Celtic not to be breaking even that low bar suggests that not all is well.

Nothing as dramatic as that may be going on right now (even the darker reaches of Kerrydale Street aren’t talking about dressing room revolt), but Brendan Rodgers (and the club as a whole) have a few problems that need to be worked out.

Problem one is that Celtic have not just let their standards slip, they haven’t found a way to recover them. The long unbeaten run went on so long as to become a millstone around the side’s neck and the statistical perfection went on far far longer than the level of performances to keep that run going did. Hearts blew it up in spectacular fashion before Kilmarnock went one better - they didn’t just beat Celtic, they restricted them to nothing. Plenty has been written about that Kilmarnock game and just how Steve Clarke set out a game plan with a limited team and beat Celtic clean.

Celtic have a familiar problem with creativity that was prevalent under Deila. Possession statistics are healthy as always, but the movement of that possession is U shaped, going around the key danger areas of the squad and being forced to cross or try to go long and put in balls that create lower percentage chances. Results may be slightly better as individual players are better as opposed to (compared to season two of Deila) the reliance upon one player in a Leigh Griffiths.

Part of that is problem two - injury. Rotation has been forced upon the side in part but also has been entirely by choice. The amount of games that the club has played may class as “victims of their own success” but it is not that many fewer than Deila’s side had to deal with. Injuries may have meant that certain key players have not been available (such as Tom Rogic or Dedryck Boyata) for periods but Celtic have not coped with them well. Injuries and the interruption of form and fluency of team cadence they create have not been dealt with and, perhaps, one could throw an accusation that if there are so many injuries cropping up then it might be more down to how the club trains than just bad luck. But where, last season, a player would simply have walked into the side for a period and then progressed at a speedy rate to becoming a key player (see S Armstrong or D Boyata) taking advantage of an injury, this season, they have not (see D de Vries, A Ralston) - success stories have been limited: only Kristofer Ajer could really class as one.

Instead, regression has been the order of the day. Contract shenanigans derailed Stuart Armstrong, Moussa Dembele has been accused of having his head turned by the EPL (although, much of the criticism of him has been unfair given the absolutely woeful supply he has had to deal with at times), Simunovic has the same type of issue as Dembele and those are just the obvious issues in the side. Rodgers is a manager who has dealt well with wantaway players before (see L Suarez) but his touch, this season, appears to have deserted him.

Which, of course, leads to problem number three - transfer policy.

Now, it wouldn’t be Celtic if fans weren’t unhappy with transfer dealings but Rodgers is responsible for more anguish than most as it’s harder to find successes than it is for others. Under Rodgers, wages have exploded to a level that might start requiring an EBT (not least the £2m plus a season that Rodgers takes home) and transfer business has been for notable amounts (in Scottish football terms) but in often odd quality and quantity.

The successes are easy to spot: Moussa Dembele and Scott Sinclair. Whatever Dembele eventually leaves for will be significantly higher than what was paid for him (even if it’s not £40m) and Scott Sinclair’s goals have been vital over the last 18 months.

But aside from those, are there many successes Celtic can point to? Patrick Roberts was already at the club and already bromancing with Kieran Tierney before Brendan - Rodgers brought him back this season and, even prior to injury, he had little impact which is something that was obvious was going to happen from a mile off. Charly Musonda is showing promise but is ultimately only a long term loanee that the club can’t make a penny from - repeat for Odsonne Edouard. Olivier Ntcham is a player who has been tipped by some for the top but it’s often difficult to see why or what he actually adds to this Celtic side. Jonny Hayes was well on the way to being a flop prior to his injury, Jack Hendry is a big risk (and not what the team needed), Marvin Compper got crocked and wasn’t eligible for the EL anyway, Eboue Kouassi has taken a year to barely make a mark and the less said about Cristian Gamboa, the better. Celtic have plenty of money in the bank but there is little evidence of it being spent consistently well and, as always, there is an accusation that it is barely being used at all.

It’s not exactly a stellar record but, in spite of that, Brendan Rodgers stated the following at the end of the January transfer window:

“I have to give a big thank you to Dermot Desmond [majority shareholder], Peter Lawwell [chief executive] and the board at Celtic because January was going to be an important month for us

“Everything I asked for, I got, in terms of the type of players we wanted to bring in.

“In terms of experience, in terms of quality and players that we think we can really develop to be outstanding players.

“I think they delivered everything that I want as a manager so it’s a great credit to them and the work they have done over these last number of months – and our recruitment team.”

Some accused Rodgers of being a corporate stooge on these comments. I would certainly hesitate to go that far but when Celtic are getting punted out of Europe due to not having a decent keeper (an issue known long before the end of January), Celtic not having a reliable centre back partnership (an issue known long before the end of January, injuries or not), Mikael Lustig having already started his decline as a player (an issue known for at least 12 months) or Celtic lacking creativity (OK, Musonda at least addresses this, even if Celtic still don’t have a number 10 worthy of the name that can play more than 60 mins a game more than every other game), then it doesn’t look good particularly when the money is there to fix each and every single one of these issues.

There are two possible conclusions - either Rodgers genuinely believes what he said and is the Deluded Brendan of twitter fame or Rodgers is lying and didn’t get his targets. Rodgers probably has enough credit in the bank with fans to believe it’s the latter and Rodgers was telling porkies to save face rather than him having lost his mind but, in a way, that’s worse. If Celtic can’t get their targets with the promise of knockout stage European football, then how exactly will they get their targets in the summer when the Champions League qualification path is rejigged to add an extra round and with the likelihood that Celtic won’t be seeded in a playoff and will get a difficult tie against, potentially, the winners of the Greek League, Eredivisie, Swiss League or Czech League. The argument, as it has always been, is that Celtic need Champions League football to attract players and that if the path to the groups is more difficult, then attracting players is more difficult too. It also makes it more difficult to keep a hold of an ambitious manager.

That, however, is getting a bit ahead of ourselves. There is still a title to win. On 3rd February 2016, Aberdeen blew the title race wide open with a win at Pittodrie thanks to a Jonny Hayes wondergoal in a 2-1 win. Their challenge stuttered to a halt soon after, but a similar opportunity is presented to them this Sunday. Beating Celtic will bring Aberdeen and (likely) Rangers into 6 points from Celtic and, suddenly, Celtic’s vice like grip on the Scottish title will look that little bit looser. The club will not be in full blown crisis mode, but with a Cup interlude between the Dons and a Celtic trip to Ibrox on Mother’s Day, the heat would be on even more for Celtic to prevent the mother of all shocks and actually throw away 7 in a row.

That seems a long time away, but this is an Aberdeen team who have had the chokers tag foisted upon them after repeated failures against Graeme Murty’s Rangers. Sunday is perhaps more important for Derek McInnes than it is for Brendan Rodgers - Celtic have to deal with injuries, fatigue, disappointment and, surely, rotation. Aberdeen will not get a better chance to overcome Celtic this season, nor did they have one last season. Flop again and that chokers tag, along with the one of being only the third best in Scotland will be permanently attached to them - only their consistency against the bottom nine keeps them in contention at their top given their record against Celtic and Rangers isn’t just X rated, it’s daytime TV on the BBC: Pointless. Win, and Aberdeen announce to everyone that, this year, there won’t be a title procession, there’ll be a title race.

Good for Scottish football, but not exactly ideal for Celtic. Brendan Rodgers can afford to see Aberdeen win on Sunday (let’s be honest, Celtic aren’t going to lose the title barring a screw up so monumental that Brendan Rodgers would be fired into the Sun) but he has to find a way for Celtic to find their way out of second gear if they want to secure the title comfortably or if they want to secure the double treble. Aberdeen, save their issues when the pressure is on, are consistent enough against enough of the league to not go away (until after the split when they traditionally fall to pieces anyway) and Rangers may still have flaws at the back aplenty but they have enough in form up front to negate that for the time being and actually look like a side that could push Celtic.

Celtic aren’t in crisis. Far from it. But they are in a funk. Be it getting players fit and on the pitch, getting players to look like they care a bit more or having more of something approaching a Plan B in attack given that most teams appear to have worked out Plan A, Brendan Rodgers now has to do something he hasn’t been forced to do domestically at any point during his tenure.

He has to earn his wage.