Guardian Essential survey points to low levels of support for stage three of government’s planned tax cuts

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Australian voters say it is more important to maintain funding for services such as health and education than giving workers on high incomes a tax cut, according to the latest Guardian Essential survey.

The latest poll of 1,097 respondents suggests voters remain to be convinced of the merits of stage three of the Morrison government’s income tax package if information is presented to them in terms of budgetary trade-offs.

A strong majority, 78%, said maintaining government investments in health and education was more important than legislating a tax cut for workers on incomes of $200,000. Three-quarters of the sample said people earning more than $150,000 should pay a higher rate of tax than workers earning $40,000.

Partisan loyalties influenced perceptions of the tax cuts. Labor and Greens supporters were more likely to agree with a statement prioritising social spending over a tax cut for high-income earners.

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Supporters of the Coalition were more likely to give the tax cuts for wealthier workers the thumbs up, with 43% of the sample strongly agreeing compared with 27% of Labor voters, 23% of Greens voters and 25% of voters identifying as supporting someone other than the major parties.

Perceptions also varied among different age cohorts. Voters under 34 were more likely to support the tax cuts than retirees. Unsurprisingly, people on higher incomes were more supportive of the concept that people on more modest incomes.

While the Morrison government appears likely to be able to pass the tax package in full when parliament returns next week for the first sitting post-election with backing from Senate crossbenchers, political debate has centred around stage three of the $158bn package because Labor has balked at that part.

Labor has been divided between MPs who say the opposition should pass the tax cuts given Scott Morrison won the election, and Labor needs to desist from governing from opposition – and people who believe stage three is fiscally irresponsible, and won’t deliver stimulus to the sluggish economy because high-income earners have a lower propensity to spend any windfall.

The result of the internal divisions within Labor is a holding pattern of sorts on stage three.

This week’s Guardian Essential survey also took early soundings on the major party leaders for the first time since the federal election on 18 May.

The data suggests public support for Morrison has increased in the wake of the Coalition’s victory, with a bounce in both the preferred prime minister measure and in his approval ratings.

Morrison is ahead of the new Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, as preferred prime minister 43% to 25%, but the survey also indicated voters are still recalibrating after the recent Labor leadership change, because the number of voters saying they don’t know who their preferred prime minister is has gone up.

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Morrison’s net approval rating in the survey is 48% and his disapproval is 36%. The Liberal leader’s approval is up five points since the question was last asked in May.

But the prime minister’s approval differs along partisan lines. Approval for the prime minister is over three times as strong among Coalition voters as it is among Greens or Labor voters.

Labor’s new federal leader has recorded a similar approval rating to his predecessor, Bill Shorten, in this week’s survey (35% net in this poll compared to 38% for Shorten), but his disapproval rating is lower (25% for Albanese and 44% for Shorten).

But the data again suggests voters are taking stock after the change of personnel, because there has been a significant increase in the number of voters in the sample saying they don’t know. The lack of clarity manifests across Labor and Coalition voters, and people intending to vote for someone other than the major parties.

With media issues continuing to dominate the headlines, voters in the survey were also asked this week to rate their trust in various news products.

A majority of people in the sample had at least some trust in SBS TV news (60%) and ABC radio news (57%), while none of the other sources rated above 50%. These results were similar to results recorded last year.

There has been controversy post election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May8, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48.

The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis.

Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation.