Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of December 20th, 2020.

Change LMP: Month Day Year

Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage Sunday January 10th, 2021 3W, 0D 33% Monday January 11th, 2021 3W, 1D 32.9% Tuesday January 12th, 2021 3W, 2D 32.6% Wednesday January 13th, 2021 3W, 3D 32% Thursday January 14th, 2021 3W, 4D 31.3% Friday January 15th, 2021 3W, 5D 30.3% Saturday January 16th, 2021 3W, 6D 29.2% Sunday January 17th, 2021 4W, 0D 28% Monday January 18th, 2021 4W, 1D 26.6% Tuesday January 19th, 2021 4W, 2D 25.2% Wednesday January 20th, 2021 4W, 3D 23.6% Thursday January 21st, 2021 4W, 4D 22.1% Friday January 22nd, 2021 4W, 5D 20.5% Saturday January 23rd, 2021 4W, 6D 18.9% Sunday January 24th, 2021 5W, 0D 17.3% Monday January 25th, 2021 5W, 1D 15.8% Tuesday January 26th, 2021 5W, 2D 14.4% Wednesday January 27th, 2021 5W, 3D 13% Thursday January 28th, 2021 5W, 4D 11.7% Friday January 29th, 2021 5W, 5D 10.5% Saturday January 30th, 2021 5W, 6D 9.4% Sunday January 31st, 2021 6W, 0D 8.4% Monday February 1st, 2021 6W, 1D 7.5% Tuesday February 2nd, 2021 6W, 2D 6.6% Wednesday February 3rd, 2021 6W, 3D 5.9% Thursday February 4th, 2021 6W, 4D 5.3% Friday February 5th, 2021 6W, 5D 4.7% Saturday February 6th, 2021 6W, 6D 4.3% Sunday February 7th, 2021 7W, 0D 3.9% Monday February 8th, 2021 7W, 1D 3.5% Tuesday February 9th, 2021 7W, 2D 3.2% Wednesday February 10th, 2021 7W, 3D 3% Thursday February 11th, 2021 7W, 4D 2.8% Friday February 12th, 2021 7W, 5D 2.6% Saturday February 13th, 2021 7W, 6D 2.5% Sunday February 14th, 2021 8W, 0D 2.4% Monday February 15th, 2021 8W, 1D 2.3% Tuesday February 16th, 2021 8W, 2D 2.2% Wednesday February 17th, 2021 8W, 3D 2.2% Thursday February 18th, 2021 8W, 4D 2.1% Friday February 19th, 2021 8W, 5D 2.1% Saturday February 20th, 2021 8W, 6D 2.1% Sunday February 21st, 2021 9W, 0D 2.1% Monday February 22nd, 2021 9W, 1D 2% Tuesday February 23rd, 2021 9W, 2D 2% Wednesday February 24th, 2021 9W, 3D 2% Thursday February 25th, 2021 9W, 4D 2% Friday February 26th, 2021 9W, 5D 2% Saturday February 27th, 2021 9W, 6D 2% Sunday February 28th, 2021 10W, 0D 2% Monday March 1st, 2021 10W, 1D 2% Tuesday March 2nd, 2021 10W, 2D 2% Wednesday March 3rd, 2021 10W, 3D 2% Thursday March 4th, 2021 10W, 4D 2% Friday March 5th, 2021 10W, 5D 2% Saturday March 6th, 2021 10W, 6D 2% Sunday March 7th, 2021 11W, 0D 2% Monday March 8th, 2021 11W, 1D 2% Tuesday March 9th, 2021 11W, 2D 2% Wednesday March 10th, 2021 11W, 3D 2% Thursday March 11th, 2021 11W, 4D 2% Friday March 12th, 2021 11W, 5D 2% Saturday March 13th, 2021 11W, 6D 2% Sunday March 14th, 2021 12W, 0D 2% Monday March 15th, 2021 12W, 1D 2% Tuesday March 16th, 2021 12W, 2D 2% Wednesday March 17th, 2021 12W, 3D 2% Thursday March 18th, 2021 12W, 4D 2% Friday March 19th, 2021 12W, 5D 2% Saturday March 20th, 2021 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.