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Some people think that the protesters in Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh should pack up and go home, while others think that the demonstrators should relocate so that they don’t cause road closure that is affecting traffic. These concerns have arisen because the BJP has decided to fight the Delhi assembly election not against the Aam Aadmi Party but against the people of Shaheen Bagh.

Shaheen Bagh is, thus, blamed for ‘polarising’ the Delhi election and some fear that this is only ‘helping’ the BJP. The party has helpfully leaked an “internal survey” that says it is likely to win 30-35 seats in Delhi thanks to the Shaheen Bagh traffic issue.

That is a laughable claim because the Shaheen Bagh traffic issue affects only a small number of people as compared to the size and spread of Delhi. And many of these affected people have their votes in Uttar Pradesh. Besides, such people are likely too happy with the free electricity to complain about a little traffic diversion.

If you ask the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) about its internal surveys, the party says it will win all 70 seats. This claim sounds equally ridiculous. But it is telling that even in its bragging, the BJP only claims it might just reach the majority mark whereas the AAP is confident that it will not lose a single seat.

Before we start patronising Shaheen Bagh protesters and placing on them the burden of deciding an election, we need to understand why the BJP is making Shaheen Bagh a central issue, why its Delhi campaign is increasingly looking like Hindutva-over-development, and why Home Minister Amit Shah has become the face of this campaign over Prime Minister Narendra Modi or BJP MP Manoj Tiwari.

The answer to all of the above is that the BJP is doing so badly in Delhi that it risks losing even some of its core voters to the AAP. If that were to happen, then it would be extremely embarrassing for the party.

So, the BJP versus Shaheen Bagh trope is not going to make the BJP win Delhi. The Shaheen Bagh protesters need not worry. They may keep calm.

Shaheen Bagh is not affecting the outcome of the Delhi assembly election in either direction. If anything, the BJP’s attack on Shaheen Bagh and its upping of the Hindutva narrative will only help Muslims not waste their votes on the Congress.

Also read: The people’s occupation of Shaheen Bagh speaks truth to power

When all tricks fail

That the AAP is going to win the Delhi assembly election has been a forgone conclusion for some time now. The joke is that the BJP’s election slogan in Delhi is “Abki baar, teen paar” (this time, we shall cross three seats).

The question is about seats and vote share. If the BJP again wins single-digit seats in the 70-member assembly, it will be quite a humiliation. You could say the 2015 Delhi election was bad luck, but for a single-digit result to be repeated in consecutive election will reflect very poorly on Amit Shah. He has had five years to apply his Chanakyan strategies to Delhi’s state-level politics.

It’s all about the executive face. In the last two Lok Sabha elections, people voted for Narendra Modi. In Delhi’s 2020 Vidhan Sabha election, the best face available before the voters is Arvind Kejriwal. The AAP has been taunting the BJP by playing on its own unofficial slogans for 2019: Aur hai kaun? (Who else is there?) Kejriwal versus who? Who is the BJP’s CM candidate? We know by now that the executive face is the biggest game changer in assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP in Delhi is failing the game, but not for the want of trying. In theory, the idea of giving a Brahmin-Baniya-Punjabi party a Purvanchali face is excellent, that too a Bhojpuri film star who is already well-known. So, no one will ask: Who is Manoj Tiwari?

Alas, familiarity is only the first step to build an executive face. The face also has to look like s/he is capable of running a government. And Manoj Tiwari doesn’t sound like he could govern a mohalla. Making Amit Shah the face of this BJP campaign serves many purposes. Apart from Hindutva positioning, it also helps people forget the failure Manoj Tiwari has been.

Also read: Delhi’s migrant voters from south prefer AAP but UP & Bihar could decide election outcome

‘Modi for PM, Arvind for CM’

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won all seven seats in Delhi with over 56 per cent vote share. That’s a massive public endorsement for a multi-party election. But the AAP cannot win Delhi without taking away at least some of these people who voted for Modi just a few months ago. This is why Arvind Kejriwal won’t directly attack Modi or make a trip to Shaheen Bagh. The AAP convener needs people who voted for Modi in May 2019 to vote for him in February 2020.

And it looks like Kejriwal is succeeding in that mission. If you have a quick chat with people in Delhi, you will realise that even people who say they vote for the BJP think that their party is losing this election. When voters think their party is losing, it is a sign of a sweep for the other side.

As a result, the BJP’s own core supporters, workers, volunteers and voters have been disillusioned in this Delhi election. A few interviews by Manoj Tiwari are doing to the BJP in this election what one interview by Kiran Bedi did in 2015.

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah were banking on a magic wand to change things around for them in this election: ‘regularising’ (meaning: legalising) unauthorised colonies, which BJP leaders say will benefit 40 lakh people. But this failed to be the Brahmastra that it was supposed to be because it will mean that people who were living in small houses will continue to live in small houses.

People are more moved by free or cheap electricity, the improved sewage lines and the free and regular water supply that the Kejriwal government has ensured for them. The AAP’s efforts in the field of education and healthcare have given it an image of a party that cares for people whereas the BJP since 23 May 2019 has been busy with controversial ideological issues that don’t improve the daily lives of even Hindu voters in any way.

The state of the Indian economy and the poor performance of the BJP-held three municipal corporations in Delhi, the Modi government’s inability to reduce pollution or decongest Delhi roads are also poor advertisements at this point for the BJP in the national capital.

Also read: Shaheen Bagh not just a local protest, it’s India’s Tahrir, Taksim Square: Umar Khalid

Tables have turned

In the 2015 Delhi assembly election, the BJP claimed to represent vikas (development) and called the AAP ‘anarchist’. But the Amit Shah-run Delhi Police is now looking the other way as pro-BJP goons take to beating up students, ransacking libraries and firing openly on Delhi streets.

The tables have turned: this Delhi election, the BJP is offering anarchy, the AAP is offering vikas. This inversion is helping the AAP attract voters from all ideological folds.

Views are personal.

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