Quick and very Rough Effort post by /u/versitas_x61 (Formerly /u/versitas187)

Introduction

(Emblem of South Korea: Rose of Sharon)

Note: Republic of Korea or ROK is official name of South Korea.

Americans, when they think of East Asia, think of China or Japan. Often, South Korea is ignored due to immensity and popularity of two larger countries surrounding it. Today, Trump announced wish to withdraw from United States-Korea FTA. In /r/worldnews, the response was mixed. Some rejoiced that US is getting a better deal and some mocked Trump for his stupidity, but no one knew what impact it would have on US self-interest. One user even expressed that Trump should just give ROK to China.

Other than my disgust that some Americans were willing to abandoning liberal, democratic ally to the authoritarian regime, it is understandable that most Americans don’t know well about ROK. Korea is often squeezed between China and Japan both literally and figuratively. DPRK captures more attention and excitement than saner counterpart. Not to mention, Western Media is always reporting on non-news at DPRK although there are significant developments happening in ROK that will impact the Status Quo in Northeast Asia.

Economics is not my forte. I am Chemistry major. However, I have more insight to this small country than many of my friends at /r/neoliberal or /r/neoconnwo as a former citizen who occasionally keep in touch with the motherland. I will try to describe the importance of this forgotten ally.

Quick Rundown of South Korean Politics



When Americans imagine South Korea, they imagine either a superficial society obsessed with beauty:

or an ally totally devoted to America:

However, both are superficial descriptions of South Korea and things are much more things going on. Korea can be roughly divided into two political factions: Conservatives and Liberals.

Korean Conservatives: Pro-America, formerly authoritarian faction

(Park Chung Hee – Savior of South Korea or Chinilpa/traitor who destroyed Korean Democracy)

Conservatives can trace their political root to Park Chung Hee. He was a dictator that rose to power through military coup and changed the political landscape. Through political and economical reforms, he turned South Korea from war-trodden third world nation to major player in East Asia today. He is very controversial figure; to some, he is savior of Korean civilization and, to others, he destroyed democratic institutions and many of authoritarian laws existing today can be traced to him and his successors. Park gathered his popular support the same way McCarthy did: he demonized North Koreans as devils, praised United States for saving the Korean people from communism and declared that his mandate came from economical development. Consequently, most conservatives are old people who lived through Park regime. They still calls North Koreans “commies” and some demonize liberals as “communist sympathizers.” This is the faction that elected Park Geun Hye, a daughter of Park Chung Hee, into power. For now, what is important to America is that conservatives are very pro-America and willing to go along with American foreign endeavors.

Korean Liberals: Pro-Korea, skeptics of American Power



(Rare footage of Korean candidates dabbing. Left is Moon Jae In, current president and leader of liberal faction)

While conservatives trace their origin to dictatorship, liberals trace their origins to democratic activists. All three liberal Presidents, including Moon Jae In, current president of South Korea, were leaders that opposed autocratic regime that Park built. Liberals remember how America were supportive of Korean dictators and how America refused to stop Gwangju Massacre when Korean army killed off many activists and unrelated civilians. Therefore, although liberals view America as most important ally, they are more skeptical of America. Liberals also desire independence from America on foreign policies and military. Currently, when Korean War resumes, the ROK policy is to put Korean army under American command. Roh Moo Hyun, a liberal president, tried to repeal that policy and put Korean army under Korean command during Korean War, but was blocked by conservatives.

Moon Jae-In, current President of South Korea

(Moon Jae-in depicted at Game of Thrones style candidate coverage in SBS channel)

Here is photo of Moon in full glory. He is very popular president right now with many domestic and foreign agenda on his plate. Before he won the election, he was nominated by 22 former and current highly ranking generals of Korean Military. This was unprecedented. Korean Military has stayed away from politics after Korea became democratic. Generals endorsed Moon because they believed that Korea is too dependent on America. Moon promised Korean people that he will strengthen Korean military so that South Korea can say “no” to United States. South Korea recently canceled purchase of American military equipment and announced large R&D program to develop independent Korean Military technology.

Common Misconceptions

Now, that you know the basics you need to understand Korean politics. Let me just get many popular misconceptions out of the way.

A) Korea is actually pro-China and want to be under Chinese umbrella

(Brief Honeymoon Period: President Park and President Xi Jinping)

This misconception comes from Joseon Dynasty (Last Dynasty before Japanese Occupation) was a vassal state of China. It is true that Joseon was faithful ally to Ming Dynasty and had very good relationship with Ming. However, when Manchus took over China and established Qing Dynasty, Joseon considered itself as a last vestige of Eastern Civilization and had tense relationship with its suzerain for the remaining years until Japanese Occupation. Even now, Korea still has tense relationship with its bigger neighbor. Although Park Geun Hye attempted at charm offensive on China and briefly entered “Honeymoon period”, it ended after China was reluctant to end the ties with North Korea. Not to mention, due to THAAD, China ripped off China–South Korea Free Trade Agreement and partially sanctioned South Korea. South Korea’s attitude on China is mixed at best and negative at worst, and it is highly unlikely that ROK will ever become Chinese ally in near future.

B) There is “Iron Triangle” alliance among Japan, Korea and United States

(Obama playing Matchmaker; Park and Abe are not interested)

Many Americans think that, since Korea and Japan are allies of United States, they are automatically strong allies with each other; however, that is not the case. Korean-Japanese relationship is at all time low. Major conflicts are on Comfort Women, worshiping Japanese War-Criminals at Yasukuni shrine and many others. Despite numerous official Japanese apologies, Koreans do not consider them genuine due to constant worshiping at Yasukuni Shrine by Japanese government. United States tried many times to make Korea and Japan get along with each other (as shown in the image above), but, despite America’s efforts, Korea and Japan both hate each others’ guts. The relation is so bad that South Korea and Japan signed military intelligence-sharing deal on North Korea just last year. Robert Kelly (Yes, this guy), a professor of International Relations at Korea, argued that both countries have no motive to get along with each other because America acts as a buffer and allows coordination between two countries through itself. Although Kelly argues that Korea and Japan will get along with each other if America pulls out, it is more probable that Japan-Korea alliance will dissolve instead due to immense enmity toward each other.

Why should America care?

(South Korean Soldiers ready to kick some ass)

So, what is the situation? Currently, South Korea is alarmed at Trump’s isolationism. Korean military supports liberals because they believe liberals will improve Korean military might. South Korea will stop depending on US for military equipment and technology and seek to develop its own equipment. Likely, if US falls out from South Korea, it will probably become a neutral country like Finland.

So, what’s the problem? Sure, America might lose some military sales with South Korea, but they will able to take care of themselves. Why shouldn’t America ditch South Korea?

A) Nuclearization of South Korea and Japan

That’s right. Both countries.

Only thing stopping South Korea and Japan from nuclearization is alliance with America. Currently, Korea is protected by nuclear umbrella of United States. As long as America is faithful ally to Korea, there is no need for Korea to develop nuclear weapons. Even so, South Korea had nuclear ambitions in the past. In early 1970s, Park Chung Hee sought to develop nuclear weapons to protect its sovereignty against North Korea and other countries. Pressure from America put stopped to that and South Korea signed Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, South Korea never completely gave up on nuclear ambitions and they have secretly developed offensive nuclear technology. Only thing that was blocking Korea from finish developing nukes were military agreements with United States not to make certain high-end/devastating weapons.

However, as America showed its unwillingness to protect South Korea, Moon proposed developing nuclear weapons as an offhand remark. While Trump said he would be negotiating FTA with Korea, Moon said he will renegotiate military agreements with United States on national TV. Moon wants America to have less control over Korean military. Korean government wants to develop its own offensive technologies prohibited by previous agreements.

If South Korea develops nuclear weapons, so would Japan. Shinzo Abe is a conservative wishing to amend pacifist Constitution to allow for more militarization of JSDF. He often used North Korea as a reason to strengthen Japanese military. If South Korea, a country with terrible relations, enhances its own military and develop nuclear weapons, Abe will push Japanese Diet to amend the constitution and develop its own nuclear weapons as well. It’s everyone’s interest to prevent further nuclearization in Northeast Asia.

B) South Korea is key to Northeast Asian Geopolitics

Korea often acted as a bridge between China and Japan. In Meiji Era, Prussian advisor in Japan called Korea “a dagger pointed at the heart of Japan.” It goes other way too. Korean peninsula is close to Beijing. Due to these reasons, Korean peninsula is very strategic location. Even without counting its strategic location, South Korea is strong regional player aiming to heighten its hard power. To control Northeast Asia, you need help of South Korea. Alienating South Korea will limit American future foreign policy in Northeast Asia. It will have less sway over South Korea when its military becomes completely independent from itself. Neutral South Korea will completely isolate Japan and United States from the mainland and there is no guarantee that South Korea will not become Chinese ally if it was offered with a better deal (such as reunification).

For these reasons, it is crucial for United States to maintain close friendship with South Korea. May the alliance between two countries last for ten thousands years!

Conclusion

So, here it is. Approximately 1700 words effort post on South Korea. This post will have some major holes since I rushed to finish them before my college starts. Please feel free to ask me questions on reddit thread and I will fill them in. But, thanks for reading and I hope it was worth while.

Sincerely,

/u/versitas_x61 or formerly /u/versitas187