The Progressive Conservatives may not slide to as easy an election victory as once thought, as the NDP are gaining support in Winnipeg.

That's the gist of a new Mainstreet Research poll of Manitobans taken on Saturday. The survey, commissioned by Postmedia, found a "virtual tie" in support for the Tories (35%) and the NDP (33%) among decided Winnipeg voters. The Liberals follow with 25% support and the Greens are currently at 8%.

"This is the first chink in the armour for (Progressive Conservative leader Brian) Pallister and the PCs," said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.

"In Winnipeg itself, it almost looks like a race now at this point. This puts the NDP back in contention."

The picture of overall support among Manitobans leading up to the April 19 election still shows a notable Tory lead, however.

Across Manitoba as a whole, 47% of decided voters favour the PCs, 25% choose the NDP, 22% would vote Liberal and 6% would go Green.

"It points to a pretty significant win for the PCs at this point but not as significant as it was even two weeks ago," said Maggi, noting previous polls predicted a "runaway win" for the Tories.

The pollster warns it may be too soon to tell, however, how the recent rise in urban NDP support -- which rose to 25% of province-wide decided voters on March 12 from 20% Jan. 27 -- plays out.

"I'm not sure I would call it momentum just yet. They've gotten out of third place, which they were in for quite some time. I think it's definitely now a trend," said Maggi.

Maggi cautioned that with more than a month left before voters actually cast ballots, "the real campaign has only just begun."

And there are still plenty of voters to win over at this point. Across Manitoba, 26% of voters remain undecided, as are 29% of Winnipeg ones.

That's up from 21% of voters defining themselves as undecided back on Feb. 11.

"The fact that the undecided is up is very peculiar. It's not something we usually see. It may mean people are more up for alternatives on where their votes are going to go," said Maggi. "Usually, we see the (portion of) undecided voters steadily decline as we near an election."

Maggi noted that among those undecided voters, 17% were leaning toward voting NDP, the same portion were leaning towards the Liberals, and 10% were leaning toward casting a Progressive Conservative ballot.

"There's a risk there for the PCs. Maybe their vote has maxed out," he said.

The landline and cellphone survey was conducted with a random sample of 1,764 Manitobans and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.33%, 19 times out of 20.

A closer look at the Mainstreet Research Poll conducted March 12:

If the provincial election were held today, which candidate would you support?

Among decided voters only:

PC: 47%

NDP: 25%

Liberal: 22%

Green: 6%

Among decided and leaning voters:

PC: 43%

NDP: 27%

Liberal: 24%

Green: 7%

Among decided Winnipeg voters:

PC: 35%

NDP: 33%

Liberal: 25%

Green: 8%

Among decided and leaning Winnipeg voters:

NDP: 34%

PC: 32%

Liberal: 26%

Green: 8%

Portion of Manitoba voters who are undecided:

Jan. 7: 24%

Jan. 27: 26%

Feb. 11: 21%

Feb. 20: 22%

March 12: 26%

What voters want in a premier and the most important election issues:

What is the most important leadership trait for a premier to have?

A premier should ‘share your values’ - 10%

A premier should ‘care about people like you’ - 11%

A premier should ‘think like you on the issues’ - 8%

A premier should ‘have honesty and integrity’ - 47%

Other - 11%

Not sure - 14%

Which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the provincial election?

Taxes - 26%

Economy - 19%

Healthcare - 16%

Education - 12%

Note sure - 11%

Something else - 7%

Ethics - 5%

Environment - 4%

Support among those who chose economy as their top issue:

NDP: 31%

PC: 24%

Liberal: 12%

Green: 1%

Undecided: 31%

Support among those who chose education as their top issue:

NDP: 30%

PC: 31%

Liberal: 9%

Green: 3%

Undecided: 29%

Support among those who chose healthcare as their top issue:

NDP: 16%

PC: 34%

Liberal: 17%

Green: 9%

Undecided: 25%

Support among those who chose taxes as their top issue:

NDP: 4%

PC: 56%

Liberal: 17%

Green: 5%

Undecided: 17%

jpursaga@postmedia.com

Twitter: @pursagawpgsun