China’s incursions have drawn resistance from neighboring countries. In 1999, the Philippines stationed a rusted naval ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, along a submerged shoal disputed by Manila and Beijing, and since then the Philippines has garrisoned a small number of troops there. But no country in the region possesses the military strength to deter Chinese activity there, and Beijing has been able to carry out its maritime policy with impunity.

Lacking a military alternative, the Philippines have turned to international law. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ratified by Manila in 1984 and Beijing in 2006, grants each maritime country an exclusive economic zone within 200 miles of its shoreline—a designation that China has largely ignored in recent years. Rather than simply ask the tribunal in The Hague to settle a bilateral territorial dispute, the Philippines is instead seeking to render China’s “nine-dash line” null and void. Will the gambit work?

Probably not. China has dismissed the legitimacy of the tribunal entirely, instead preferring to negotiate with the Philippines directly. And even if the judges in The Hague rule in the Philippines’ favor, which is no sure thing, the tribunal lacks any enforcement mechanism to compel China to comply with its decision. The Chinese government, in any case, has said that it will continue to do what it wants regardless of the decision.

Which is not to say that the case won’t have consequences. If the Philippines loses, the country and its neighbors will be less likely to turn to international institutions to resolve future disputes, and military alliances will become more attractive. Heightened tension in the South China Sea will increase the chances that the region’s other superpower—the United States—intervenes more forcefully on behalf of China’s adversaries. Finally, the tribunal’s decision will determine whether UNCLOS, a crucial piece of international legislation, has lost its reason for being—and show that the law of the sea may more closely resemble the law of the jungle.

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