Couch Index: Big Ten basketball power rankings, NCAA tournament odds for all 14 teams

As we shift back into Big Ten play full-time, halfway through college basketball’s regular season, it’s time again to size up the Big Ten with a second — and now weekly — installment of the “Couch Index.”

Here, each week, I’ll rank and analyze all 14 teams and project their NCAA tournament odds and seeding.

1. Michigan State

Overall record: 14-1

Big Ten record: 2-0

Couch AP ballot ranking: 2

Quality wins: North Carolina (63-45, neutral court); Notre Dame (81-63, home).

Bad losses: None

Best win: North Carolina

Worst loss: Duke (88-81, neutral court)

NCAA tournament odds: 99.5 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 1

The skinny: The Spartans continue to roll, playing perhaps their best basketball yet, topping 100 points in four straight games, though the competition hasn’t been stiff. MSU leads the nation in field-goal percentage defense, holding teams to 32.8 percent shooting, more than 3 percentage points better than the next best team. The Spartans’ 126 blocked shots are also No. 1 in the country, by 16 blocks. MSU’s Big Ten schedule is backloaded, with six of nine games in January in East Lansing before a more challenging February, with six games on the road and a home date with Purdue.

2. Purdue

Overall record: 13-2

Big Ten record: 2-0

Couch AP ballot ranking: 21

Quality wins: Arizona (89-64, neutral); Louisville (66-57, home); Maryland (80-75, road); Butler (82-67, neutral)

Bad losses: None

Best win: Arizona

Worst loss: Western Kentucky (77-73, neutral)

NCAA tournament odds: 95 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 5

The skinny: Purdue hasn’t lost since Thanksgiving weekend and has won impressively in all five games, albeit not against the greatest of competition. With Minnesota faltering in early December, Purdue has taken over the mantle of the team most likely to challenge Michigan State this season. The Boilermakers have been winning on both ends of the floor. They’re second in the Big Ten in scoring offense, scoring margin and field-goal percentage, first in 3-point percentage and fourth in field-goal percentage defense. Mid-January trips to Michigan and Minnesota will be telling.

3. Michigan

Overall record: 12-3

Big Ten record: 1-1

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: UCLA (78-69, home), Texas (59-52, road)

Bad losses: LSU (77-75, neutral)

Best win: Texas

Worst loss: LSU

NCAA tournament odds: 65 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 7

The skinny: The Wolverines made the biggest jump from the previous Couch Index rankings, from 8 to 3. They’ve had two quality wins since — over UCLA at home and at Texas — and haven’t lost in a month. They play at Iowa Tuesday night and host Illinois Saturday before a measuring-stick week with games at Michigan State and against Purdue. Moritz Wagner and Charles Matthews remain the Big Ten’s best pair outside of East Lansing.

4. Minnesota

Overall record: 12-3

Big Ten record: 1-1

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: Providence (86-74, road); Alabama (89-84, neutral)

Bad losses: None

Best win: Providence

Worst loss: Nebraska (78-68, road)

NCAA tournament odds: 90 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 6

The skinny: In terms of talent and quality of starting five, the Gophers are the Big Ten’s second-best team. Only they’re not right now. They followed up a double-digit road loss at Nebraska with a 16-point road loss at Arkansas. There’s no shame in losing in Fayetteville, other than the margin, and that loss was not as bad as a one-point home win over Drake right after it. Minnesota has a strong collection of talent and experience, but, so far, they’re a semi-functional team that lacks cohesion and, sometimes, grit.

MORE: Graham Couch's AP ballot: Why Duke is No. 1 over Michigan State

MORE: Initial Couch Index Big Ten power rankings, Dec. 6

5. Maryland

Overall record: 12-3

Big Ten record: 1-1

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: None

Best win: Illinois (92-91, road)

Worst loss: St. Bonaventure (63-61, neutral site)

NCAA tournament odds: 25 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: NIT

The skinny: I really liked this young Maryland team and thought it would become a factor in the Big Ten by February. But recent season-ending injuries to power forwards Justin Jackson (9.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Ivan Bender leave this team thin in the frontcourt. The Terps still have enough talent to win a lot of nights and one of the best young guards in the Big Ten in Anthony Cowan. But the lack of depth of size is likely to catch up with them.

6. Ohio State

Overall record: 11-4

Big Ten record: 2-0

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: Wisconsin (83-58, road); Michigan (71-62, home)

Bad losses: None

Best win: Wisconsin

Worst loss: Butler (67-66, neutral)

NCAA tournament odds: 40 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: NIT

The skinny: I’m still not convinced the Buckeyes have the roster to reach the NCAA tournament. But this is a team to watch early in Big Ten play. Ohio State opens at Iowa Thursday, then hosts Michigan State and Maryland. We’ll know a lot more then. The Buckeyes’ wins at Wisconsin and over Michigan in early December were convincing. And Ohio State’s losses to Clemson and Butler all of a sudden don’t look so bad. The Buckeyes’ early season work gives them a shot.

7. Nebraska

Overall record: 10-5

Big Ten record: 1-1

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: Minnesota (78-68, home)

Bad losses: None

Best win: Minnesota

Worst loss: Central Florida (68-59, neutral)

NCAA tournament odds: 35 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: NIT

The skinny: The Huskers were No. 5 in the first Couch Index. They didn’t really fall. The difference between 5 and 8 right now is a hair or two. Nebraska’s one-point home loss to Kansas could come back to haunt the Huskers. Not that it’s a bad loss. But it’s a missed opportunity in trying to build a postseason resume. Their trio of point guard Glynn Watson Jr. and transfers James Palmer and Isaac Copeland gives them a chance to get three guys rolling, which is what it takes to win consistently.

8. Northwestern

Overall record: 10-5

Big Ten record: 1-1

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: None

Best win: Illinois (72-68, home)

Worst loss: Texas Tech (85-49, neutral)

NCAA tournament odds: 40 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: NIT

The skinny: The Wildcats’ finally started looking like last year’s team, an NCAA tournament team, for a couple weeks in December. Injuries have slowed them lately. Vic Law missed a loss at Oklahoma, which contributed mightily to that 26-point defeat. Bryant McIntosh had a knee-injury scare. And one problem won’t go away: All-State Arena as this year’s home venue, meaning a lack of student support and home atmosphere.

9. Penn State

Overall record: 11-4

Big Ten record: 1-1

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: Wisconsin (64-63, home), Rider (71-70, home)

Best win: Iowa (77-73, road)

Worst loss: Wisconsin

NCAA tournament odds: 20 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: No postseason

The skinny: The Nittany Lions continue to be the Big Ten’s most disappointing team. This squad has NCAA tournament talent. And a CBI resume. Their latest bad loss — at home to Rider. Penn State’s lack of quality wins out of conference also means it’ll likely have to win about 11 Big Ten games to get in the NCAA tournament. This roster is capable of it. But something isn’t right.

10. Iowa

Overall record: 9-6

Big Ten record: 0-2

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: South Dakota State (80-72, neutral), Louisiana (80-71, neutral)

Best win: Colorado (80-73, neutral)

Worst loss: Louisiana

NCAA tournament odds: 5 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: No postseason

The skinny: The Hawkeyes have won five straight and started to look like the squad that was supposed to be an NCAA tournament bubble team. Neither of their bad losses listed above are really that bad, either. But they don’t have a quality win, and they’ve already fallen to two struggling Big Ten opponents. It’s hard to see this group climbing back into the NCAA tournament conversation. We’ll know a little more after this week, during which Iowa plays three Big Ten games, hosting Michigan and Ohio State before a weekend trip to Maryland.

11. Indiana

Overall record: 8-6

Big Ten record: 1-1

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: Indiana State (90-69, home), IPFW (92-72, home)

Best win: Notre Dame (80-77, neutral court)

Worst loss: IPFW

NCAA tournament odds: 3 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: No postseason

The skinny: I didn’t think the Hoosiers could top their 31-point home loss to Indiana State. They did, losing to Fort Wayne — for the second straight year — by 20 in Bloomington. It negated a progress-showing win over Notre Dame in Indianapolis days earlier and left Indiana with a fairly abysmal resume heading back into Big Ten play. The Hoosiers are at Wisconsin and Minnesota this week, then host Penn State and Northwestern next week. If they don’t emerge at least 2-2, it’s curtains.

12. Rutgers

Overall record: 10-5

Big Ten record: 0-2

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: Seton Hall (71-65, home)

Bad losses: Stony Brook (75-73, home), Hartford (60-58, home)

Best win: Seton Hall

Worst loss: Stony Brook

NCAA tournament odds: 5 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: No postseason

The skinny: Rutgers is becoming a maddening team. The Scarlet Knights upset a ranked Seton Hall club at home and then turned around and lost consecutive games to Stony Brook and Hartford, killing what, for an instant, was a growing resume behind an intriguing roster. Rutgers has enough offensive talent in its backcourt to beat most of the Big Ten on a given night. They begin January Big Ten play with games at Purdue, against Wisconsin and at Michigan State. If the Scarlet Knights want to be taken seriously, they’ll at least beat Wisconsin.

13. Illinois

Overall record: 10-5

Big Ten record: 0-2

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: Missouri (70-64, neutral)

Bad losses: None

Best win: Missouri

Worst loss: New Mexico State (74-69, neutral)

NCAA tournament odds: 3 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: No postseason

The skinny: Illinois’ Braggin’ Rights game win over Missouri gives the Illini some momentum heading into Big Ten play. The Illini, unlike some other Big Ten teams, have perhaps overachieved. Or at least met expectations. There just isn’t a lot of game-ready, upper-tier, Big Ten-level talent on this roster.

14. Wisconsin

Overall record: 8-7

Big Ten record: 1-1

Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked

Quality wins: Penn State (64-63, road)

Bad losses: Ohio State (83-58, home), Marquette (82-63, home)

Best win: Penn State

Worst loss: Ohio State

NCAA tournament odds: 1 percent

Projected NCAA tournament seed: No postseason

The skinny: If you’re waiting for the Badgers to find their footing, it’s not happening this season. Injuries have hurt them. Mostly, there isn’t enough talent around Ethan Happ for this team to be competitive. And Happ, it turns out, is a No. 2 at the Big Ten level, not a primary go-to guy on an upper-tier team. It’s going to be a rough winter in Madison, though the early Big Ten schedule is kind — Indiana, at Rutgers, at Nebraska, at Purdue, Illinois, at Iowa. The Badgers could have a chance in five of those six games. I wouldn’t be surprised they’re 0-6.

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.