india

Updated: Apr 10, 2020 18:29 IST

India must extend its strict confinement measures to combat the coronavirus disease and the benefits of the lockdown should not be frittered away for short-term economic considerations, said one of the military’s topmost doctors, a three-star general who was at the forefront of the country’s fight against Covid-19 until 10 days ago.

Lieutenant General Rajan Grewal, who retired as the head of the army’s medical services on April 1, told Hindustan Times on Friday that relaxing the lockdown would allow transmission rates to skyrocket across cities and communities, with horrific consequences of unmanageable disease burden and resultant mortality.

The current 21-day lockdown was enforced on March 25 to break the chain of infection and control the spread of the coronavirus, and the government is expected to take a final call on extending it beyond April 14 soon.

Grewal recommended a longer and calibrated lockdown that would give India an extended window of opportunity to blunt the Covid-19 curve.

He said a prolonged lockdown might be perceived as an extreme step with its economic, vocational and food scarcity-related apprehensions, but it was the most reliable mechanism and perhaps the only means to minimise transmission through effective community containment.

“Different studies reveal that even with 50% efficacy of the lockdown, there should be a considerable blunting of the curve. The question therefore is whether to consider a calibrated extension of the lockdown for a few more weeks or not. Despite its deleterious consequences for the economy and livelihoods of the weaker sections of our populace, can the nation afford to surrender these (lockdown) gains,” Grewal said.

He stressed that the positive impact of the lockdown in dealing with the calamitous ramifications of the Covid-19 pandemic should not be underplayed.

Grewal, however, flagged concerns about the variable implementation of the lockdown across states, pointing to a recent “avoidable congregation” in New Delhi and its widespread ramifications. As of April 3, a third of the country’s coronavirus positive cases were linked to the Tablighi Jamaat congregation in Delhi’s Nizamuddin last month.

He said if Prime Minister Narendra Modi had not ordered the lockdown, the Covid-19 pandemic could have triggered an unmanageable healthcare crisis in the country in the coming months.

“As a result of the lockdown, the disease burden will be considerably less and delayed compared with the previous alarming estimates. The spread has been partially checked by the commendable measures planned and executed by the government,” he pointed out.

Grewal said steps taken by the government to slow the spread of the disease were yielding results.

“But this ought not to lead to complacence and laxity which may have catastrophic consequences. If the lockdown is totally lifted, the sheer magnitude of a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) environment would trigger chaos and devastation,” he said.

He said the lockdown, preceded by the mass quarantine of evacuees from hotspots abroad and also those potentially exposed, has slowed down the progress of transmission.

“If benefit accrual (from the lockdown) is surrendered, the control of the pandemic may become more challenging, complex and uncertain with each passing day. Things could spin out of control,” he said.

Grewal said enhanced testing and contact tracing in and around Covid-19 hotspots across the country where the population was vulnerable to the disease was vital. “This may prevent us from basking in the comfort zone that we are doing better than most of the world,” he said.

Preventing the spread of infection in pockets with high population densities, including slums and suburbs, was critical in the fight against Covid-19, he said. “Lockdown may not have the same success in these settings if it is not augmented by active screening, aggressive testing, rigorously enforced quarantine, zoning cordons and intense medical surveillance,” he added.