Bernie Sanders has been looking forward to Tuesday’s string of industrial Midwestern contests for some time, confident that his economic message and opposition to trade deals will resonate in working class areas hit hard by manufacturing losses and foreign competition.

The Vermont senator comes in with some momentum after his upset victory Tuesday in Michigan, and figures to be competitive in at least three of Tuesday’s five Democratic presidential primaries: Illinois, Missouri and Ohio.


In the other two states, North Carolina and Florida, Hillary Clinton has the clear advantage. Sanders has been crushed everywhere south of the Mason-Dixon line, largely because of Clinton’s landslide margins among African-Americans -- and North Carolina and Florida have large black populations.

Here’s the state-by-state breakdown:

Florida: 246 delegates

Florida is the day’s big delegate prize, but Sanders hasn’t devoted the same amount of energy to the state as Clinton.

One reason is that Clinton has a high degree of familiarity with the state, and it’s the kind of demographic make-up that’s well-suited for her -- a large chunk of the Democratic electorate is comprised of minority and older voters, who have generally sided with Clinton in the primary contests.

"About 40 percent of the electorate will be made up of either Hispanics or blacks -- which is both African-American and Caribbean in Florida. Our electorate is exceptionally old -- we're talking about 85 percent of our voters maybe over the age of 50 -- which is much, much older than Michigan," said Steve Schale, a veteran Florida Democratic strategist.

Most polls give Clinton the clear advantage. A recent Mason-Dixon/Ledger/WTSP poll found Clinton leading Sanders 68 percent to 23 percent.

The Clinton name is well-known here. "We've polled Bill Clinton for years here and he is almost always one of the most or the most popular Democrat in the state," Florida Democratic Party executive director Scott Arceneaux said.

Ashley Walker, another veteran Democratic operative who served as Democrat Alex Sink's campaign manager in 2014, also noted that the Clinton connections to Florida run deep.

"The Clintons have spent a lot of time over the last couple of decades in the state of Florida building relationships and coming down here and doing events and being very much a part of the public political sphere down here so I just think that they're very much entrenched here," Walker said. "I think you're going to see Hillary Clinton come in with a big win on Super Tuesday."

Illinois: 182 Democratic delegates

Until recently, Hillary Clinton dominated polling here -- she has a long history in this blue state, which is her birthplace. Having won the endorsement of major labor unions, including SEIU – which has a large presence in Illinois – she has immediate organization on the ground.

But polls in the final days before the primary suggest Sanders has closed to within striking distance. Through TV ads, phone banking and door knocking, Bernie Sanders’ supporters are using her past ties to the politically crippled Mayor Rahm Emanuel against her to win over the African-American vote. Emanuel, who worked as an adviser in the President Bill Clinton White House, is in the midst of a crisis of confidence in the African-American community since the dashcam video release of the Laquan McDonald shooting.

Tuesday is the first referendum on the handling of the McDonald case and there’s a growing progressive movement to oust Cook County State’s Attorney Anita Alvarez and elect candidate Kim Foxx, which could benefit Sanders, who is being pushed as part of a Foxx package by some, including Reclaim Chicago, which has hundreds of volunteers in the city.

The other big group to watch is Latinos, which makes up about 15 percent of the voting bloc in Chicago. There’s a split there, too. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, who made a strong run for mayor against Emanuel last year, is steering his supporters to Sanders. Congressman Luis Gutierrez, with deep roots with the electorate, however, is a Clinton supporter.

While African-American members of Congress Danny Davis and Robin Kelly stood as Clinton backers, a recent Chicago event for Clinton produced a less than stellar turnout. Clinton returned to suburban Vernon Hills last week where crowds lined up around the block to see her. Jan Rodolfo, chair of the Reclaim Chicago board – made up in part of National Nurses United, which backs Sanders -- pointed to Clinton’s remarks in the aftermath of McDonald.

“Hillary Clinton was saying she’s certain Rahm Emanuel will stand up and do the right thing,” Rodolfo said. “She took the wrong position by defending the indefensible. It really sort of tainted any attempt she’s trying to make right now to appear more progressive on issues.” Gutierrez though said Sanders has been “absent” on minority issues and defended Clinton on McDonald, saying: “To take a tragedy and try to exploit it politically, I think, is really sad.”

Missouri: 71 delegates

Polling has been sparse in the state and most national attention has been devoted to other contests on Tuesday. But Missouri is considered one of Sanders’ best chances for a win: A RABA Research poll of the Democratic primary conducted between March 8 and March 10 found Clinton leading Sanders 44 percent to 40 percent.

Missouri very narrowly went for Barack Obama over Clinton in 2008 but this time around the former secretary of state enjoys a host of structural advantages: she's got the support of Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon, Sen. Claire McCaskill and was recently endorsed by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the state's most prominent newspaper.

Sanders has made a hard late push in the state, spending nearly $1 million on TV ads compared to Clinton’s $373,000. He also vastly outspent Clinton on radio.

Both Democrats planned to flood the state in the final days before the primary. In a speech Saturday in St. Louis, Clinton directed her attention toward Donald Trump but also inserted a swipe at the Vermont senator, warning voters to watch out for "making promises we can't keep or proposals that don't add up."

Sanders also scheduled visits in Missouri on Saturday in Springfield and Sunday in St. Louis. Meanwhile, Clinton's daughter, Chelsea, is scheduled to make stops on her mother's behalf in St. Louis and Columbia on Monday.

North Carolina: 122 delegates

North Carolina figures to be unfriendly ground for Sanders: It's a Southern state with a large African-American population. Democratic operatives and top officials in the state say they don’t see the conditions necessary for Sanders to pull off an upset.

"I think that people see Hillary as a more pragmatic, realistic candidate, in terms of experience," said North Carolina Democratic Party chairwoman Patsy Keever, while noting that liberal voters are enthusiastic about Sanders.

Sanders hasn’t conceded the state: He’s outspent Clinton by more than 3-to-1 on TV in the last week. But polling paints a grim picture for Sanders. In a state where African-Americans cast one-third of the vote in the 2008 Democratic primary, a recent Survey USA- WRAL News poll found Clinton leading Sanders by 57 percent to 34 percent.

"I think Clinton will probably win every media market. The question is if Asheville overperforms the rest of the media market, Asheville proper, Sanders could do well there. But because of the large amount of African-American voters, she has just such tremendous support out there in the triangle," North Carolina Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson said, ticking off the media markets where Clinton will do well: Wilmington, Greensboro, Charlotte. "She's just going to do well. Unless there's something no one's seeing."

Ohio: 159 delegates

Ohio is a key state for Sanders, who hopes to parlay his victory in Michigan into another Rust Belt success here.

Clinton has consistently led in polling but the gap has closed over the past few months. A September Quinnipiac University poll found Clinton winning 40 percent to 19 percent but by last week her lead had been sliced to 9 points.

Sanders’ economic message – particularly his criticism of trade deals – is getting traction, as evidenced by his recent endorsement by Rep. Marcy Kaptur. But most elected officials have thrown their support behind Clinton while Sanders' backing is mainly anchored by grassroots activists.

"The Sanders campaign has had a very aggressive and early grassroots volunteer infrastructure from the beginning," said Nick Martin, executive director of Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County Democratic Party.

But Clinton has moved to catch up, Martin added. "The Clinton campaign really has a lot of heavyweights in Northeast Ohio throwing in behind her so while she wasn't organized as early she sprinted to catch up very quickly with her grassroots organizing."

On Saturday, former President Bill Clinton campaigned in Ohio as did Sen. Sherrod Brown, the state’s senior senator and a leading Democratic voice on trade and labor issues. Former Ohio state Sen. Nina Turner, one of Sanders' most frequently used surrogates, insisted Clinton was just using Brown for cover on trade issues.

"They can't look at Sen. Sherrod Brown's record to judge Secretary Clinton. Look at her record and her record is this: that she has supported as first lady bad trade policy," Turner told POLITICO.

Sanders’ commitment to Ohio is clear from its spending: The campaign spent $1,342,971 on TV advertising in the last week, while Clinton's campaign spent $730,984.

Another welcome bit of news for Sanders over the weekend: An Ohio judge ruled that 17-year-olds who would be 18 on the day of the November election could vote in the primary.