Conservatives Tick Down Slightly But…

…they’d still win if an election were held today



Toronto, April 29th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1595 Canadian voters, with those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (37%) say they would support the Conservatives, with a third (30%) saying they would support the Liberals and one-sixth (14%) supporting the NDP.

1 in 10 (9%) support the Green Party and few support the BQ (6%), the People’s Party of Canada (2%), or another party (2%).

Those aged 45-54 (42%), males (46%), earning between $80,000 to $100,000 (48%), and living in Alberta (66%) are most likely to support the Conservatives.

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 65 and over (36%), females (33%), with post-graduate degrees (37%), and those living in Atlantic Canada (34%), Quebec (34%), and Ontario (34%).

If an election were held today, these results suggest the Conservatives would win a majority government of 173 seats. The Liberals would serve as the official opposition with 109 seats. The NDP would secure 27 seats, BQ would secure 27, and the Green Party would secure 2 seats.

1 in 3 say Scheer would make the best Prime Minister

A third (31%) say Andrew Scheer would make the best Prime Minister regardless of which party they plan to vote for. 3-in-10 (27%) say Justin Trudeau, 1 in 10 (13%) say Elizabeth May or (8%) say Jagmeet Singh would make the best Prime Minister.

One-fifth (20%) of respondents say they don’t know.





6-in-10 disapprove of the job Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister, 6-in-10 (61%) disapprove, while about a third approve (30%), and 1-in-10 (9%) don’t know. Trudeau’s net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -31.

4 in 10 disapprove of the job Scheer is going as leader of opposition

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Andrew Scheer is doing as the leader of the opposition, 4 in 10 (41%) disapprove, while a third (34%) approve, and a third (25%) don’t know. Scheer’s net favourable score is -8.

4 in 10 don’t know if they approve or disapprove of Singh as leader of the NDP

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh is doing as leader of the NDP, a third (26%) approve, 4-in-10 (40%) disapprove, and a third (34%) don’t know. Singh’s net favourable score is-14.

4 in 10 approve of May as the leader of the Green Party

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Elizabeth May is doing as the leader of the Green Party, 4 in 10 (42%) respondents approve, a quarter (25%) disapprove, and another third (34%) don’t know. May has the only positive net favourable score out of the four party leaders, 17.

Is Canada better or worse right now than in 2015?

When asked if Canada is doing better or worse than it was 4 years ago, over half (BTM2: 58%) stated it was worse, with 2 in 10 (22%) saying it is “a bit worse” and a third (36%) saying Canada is “much worse”.

4-in-10 (TOP2: 42%) say Canada is doing better than 4 years ago, with less than a third (29%) saying it was “a bit better” and 1 in 10 (13%) saying it’s much better.





“The Conservatives still lead over the Liberals, but their lead has narrowed slightly,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Even though their lead has dipped slightly, If the election were held today the Federal Conservatives would form government.”

