To be one of the tens of thousands of New Jersey residents who commute by train to New York City is to live a life of doubt.

Will your train run on time?

Will it even show up?

On Monday, when the tri-state region was blanketed with a moderate snowfall, highways and streets were quickly plowed across North Jersey. But New Jersey Transit’s train service came to a virtual standstill. The agency announced that 20 trains were canceled. But the number may have been higher. One radio station reported that 51 trains had been scuttled.

As if those numbers were not ominous enough, consider the reason for the cancellations.

The problem wasn’t snow or ice on the tracks. It was all the engineers who called in sick or offered some other lame excuse for not showing up to drive their trains.

On Tuesday, Gov. Phil Murphy stepped before the gathering of the state Legislature in Trenton for his annual address on how he planned to spend $38.6 billion in state revenues — and, perhaps, more significantly, how he planned to come up with that amount of money.

Among the most notable proposals were Murphy’s pledge to invest another $100 million into NJ Transit. The governor also promised not to raise commuter fares for buses or trains. A day later, during a visit to an NJ Transit maintenance shop in Wood-Ridge, Murphy noted: “Last year, commuters didn’t shoulder a fare hike, and if this proposed investment is passed by the Legislature, they won’t see one this year, either."

All that seems nice. But Murphy's promise of more money and no fare increases masks a growing problem with the state’s most important commuter transit agency – namely that it still can’t make its trains run on time. On too many days, the agency can’t even get some trains to run at all.

Snowstorms are not the problem here.

The problem is the agency itself.

For the past nine months, NJ Transit has been quietly running what it deftly describes as a reduced train schedule. This is bureaucratic lingo for the fact that NJ Transit is canceling trains.

In practical terms, this means some trains have been canceled outright – the most notable examples being trains to Atlantic City and Princeton. But many other train lines across the state operate on a schedule that seems to change day to day, with trains suddenly canceled here and there while commuters stand on a platform.

Transit agency officials say a major factor in delayed or canceled trains is the ongoing installation of positive train control safety equipment on rail tracks, which the federal government has ordered for all of the nation’s commuter rail lines as a way of slowing down speeding trains.

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Analysis:With a promise not to hike NJ Transit fares, is Murphy delaying the inevitable?

But NJ Transit also faces another formidable problem. It doesn’t have enough engineers to drive all of its locomotives. So if a few engineers call in sick or take vacations, the ripple effects up and down the system result in all manner of trains being scuttled for a day or so.

This is the sort of problem we expect to find in Third World nations. It’s now, however, part of the fabric of ordinary life in New Jersey.

NJ Transit’s Executive Director Kevin Corbett said last week that the Atlantic City and Princeton lines would return to ful service in late May. But there is still no firm date on when riders on other lines can expect to see a full schedule – or at least an end to the sudden cancellations.

The influx of $100 million into NJ Transit’s budget will certainly help. But there is no guarantee Murphy can fork over that amount of cash.

For nearly three decades, New Jersey has faced major structural deficits in its annual budgets. No governor has yet to figure out how to plug all the financial holes.

Raising taxes is one remedy. Cutting services is another. But voters don’t like either choice. So Murphy – like his predecessors – is faced with a cut and patch set of solutions.

Murphy proposed this week in his budget address to raise revenues by hiking the marginal tax rate on those making $1 million or more a year. The governor says that such a plan would generate about $447 million – hardly enough to plug all the holes in the state budget. And with Murphy trying to give at least $100 million to NJ Transit, an increase of $447 million in revenues is not much of a financial cushion.

What’s more – and adding to the budgetary doubts -- Murphy’s plan to increase taxes on millionaires still needs more support from the state Senate and Assembly. Already legislative leaders in Murphy's own party have signaled that they don’t entirely favor any tax increases, even on New Jersey’s wealthiest residents. Instead, the Legislature seems more open to rolling back back pension and health benefits for public workers.

What’s evolving is yet another year of budgetary doubts. Which means more penny pinching at NJ Transit – and likely a continuation of an unsettled train schedule.

Murphy is not entirely to blame for the transit agency’s cascade of woes. New Jersey's two previous governors – Jon Corzine and Chris Christie – dialed back funding for the agency for years. Indeed, Christie’s treatment of the state’s rail system bordered on neglect.

But Murphy is now in charge. He has pledged to fix NJ Transit. But more than a year into his first term, he still has little to show.

Since February 2018 – barely a month into Murphy’s tenure -- NJ Transit has lost 866 employees. The agency says 40 percent of the workers left for retirement. But dozens of engineers simply quit to find better-paying jobs at other commuter transit lines.

Has Murphy, with his rob-Peter-to-pay-Paul budget, set the transit agency on a new course? It’s too early to answer that question.

NJ Transit still has more than 400 open positions. Yes, you heard that right; 400 jobs need to be filled.

The agency brags that it has hired more than 100 locomotive engineers. But none are on the job yet. The new engineers are split into six training classes.

The first class of just 12 engineers is scheduled to graduate in May. Another class of just nine new engineers is slated to graduate in the fall. But the remaining classes won’t be fully trained until next year, the agency says.

This drip-drip replenishing of engineers will likely result in continued train delays and cancellations.

Which brings us back to Murphy.

One of the most basic tasks of any elected official is simply making sure that government works efficiently. Potholes need to be filled. School classrooms need to be repainted. Garbage needs to be picked up. And, yes, trains need to keep to a schedule.

Murphy has gained great fame for his progressive vision. He wants to legalize pot, give drivers licenses to undocumented immigrants and provide free tuition to community colleges for low income students.

But he still can’t make the trains run on time.

Email: kellym@northjersey.com