By Jordan Carreno

The Champions League draw has handed Liverpool a round of 16 matchup against Bayern Munich, with the first leg taking place at Anfield. Kickoff is schedule for 3:00 PM EST on Tuesday.

Liverpool v Bayern Munich — 02/19/2019 2000 GMT

The day has finally arrived. Champions League football is back on the menu and Liverpool find themselves in one of the more interesting ties of the round. A match up against German giants Bayern Munich brings plenty to the table and should make for entertaining, if not stressful, viewing. As always, all 3 LFC Tampa Bay locations will be open, serving, and showing the match. So, cook up an excuse to get out of work early and head on down to join your fellow Tampa Bay Reds in taking in the action. With all that being said, let’s get into these talking points.

Coping Without Virgil

The biggest question heading into the first leg is how Liverpool will manage without Van Dijk in the backline. With the Dutchman due to miss the first leg due to suspension, there is plenty of worry that Liverpool’s defensive prowess will be greatly hindered in Virgil’s absence. Given the immense turn around in performance by Liverpool’s backline since VVD’s arrival, getting through this tie and into the next round could come down to how well the Reds can cope without him in the first leg.

Of course the issue is complicated further by the injuries of Dejan Lovren and Joe Gomez, which leaves Liverpool with one healthy senior centerback in the squad. This likely means we get to see Fabinho partnered up with Joel Matip in the middle of the back 4. That these two have never played together and will have to face one of the best number 9’s in world football in Robert Lewandowski could make for some tense viewing.

It will be a tough test for Fabinho filling in for Van Dijk

On the bright side, Niko Kovac’s system has Bayern focus most of their attacks down the wings. With players like Robben, Gnabry, Coman, and Ribery, Bayern often build most of their attacks in the wide areas and look to work crosses into Lewandowski. Though they have the talent in the middle of the park to play through the center, it would be against the norm for Bayern to play through the center and directly at our weakened back pairing. With Trent coming back from injury and Robbo being the ever present force he is, the Reds will at the very least have their first choices available to them to cover Bayern’s wing play.

Both Joel Matip and Fabinho possess the physical traits to be able to deal with crosses into the box. Though it will be a challenge to keep up with Lewandowski, they have the tools to be able to deal with the questions that will be asked of them. As long as Trent and Robbo play to their full potential and do their best to prevent service into the box, then Matip and Fabinho will have less to worry about. Regardless, it was always going to be a tough task to keep this Bayern side out and that only becomes tougher without our talismanic, Dutch colossus.

Rope-a-dope

In that same vein, the absence of VVD could provide Liverpool with the opportunity to counter Bayern more often. With the knowledge that Van Dijk is out for the first leg, Bayern might feel there is a far better chance for them to come to Anfield and get an away goal or more. If Virgil was in the side, Bayern might have decided to tackle the match with a more cautious approach. However, with Liverpool down to the barebones at centerback, they might now feel there is an opportunity for them to get something going forward.

If Bayern do feel there is an opportunity to get forward and take the game to Liverpool, it could end up playing into Liverpool’s hands. This is a Liverpool squad that ravaged Europe last season with counter attacking play and coming at Liverpool will give opportunities to the Reds to counter. Though we would all prefer for Liverpool to control possession and dominate the play, it is no secret that this Liverpool side are most ruthless when given the chance to counter attack.

It is also no secret that Bayern are ill-equipped to handle pacy counter attacking sides, so they could still come out with a cautious mentality and look to get to the second leg level on aggregate. Even with Van Dijk set to sit out the first leg, Bayern should still be wary of Liverpool’s ability going forward. It will be interesting to see how Bayern decide to handle the tie with Liverpool’s best centerback serving suspension.

4–2–3–1 vs. 4–3–3

Klopp has a tough decision to make in regard to what system he decides to use

Perhaps the biggest unknown going into the match on Tuesday is which formation will Jurgen Klopp decide to go with. We have seen a tactical flexibility this season from Klopp with the Reds rotating between our familiar 4–3–3 and a new look 4–2–3–1. There are arguments to be had for both systems and both could provide noticeable advantages over a side like Bayern.

The 4–3–3 would allow Liverpool to take advantage of the spaces left behind Bayern. With both Kimmich and Alaba being attacking wingbacks, there should be space on Bayern’s flanks for the like of Salah and Mane to expose whenever there is a transition of possession. Also, the 4–3–3 gives the cover on the wings that Liverpool will need in order to stifle Bayern’s wing play. Lastly, the 4–3–3 allows for players like Salah, Firmino, and Keita to play in the more natural and favorable positions.

The 4–2–3–1 would allow Liverpool the opportunity to try and expose the lack of pace in the middle of the park for Bayern. Putting Salah directly on Bayern’s centerbacks, who are both lacking for pace, could cause plenty of problems for the Germans. Plus, with Salah occupying the centerbacks, the 4–2–3–1 would allow Firmino to press the Bayern midfield and give him the space to create opportunities in the attacking third. Lastly, the 4–2–3–1 would also provide cover in front of Fabinho and Matip and protect the weakest part of the team for the Reds.

The Reds possess the tactical flexibility to play either system to a high level and get something out of this match. On top of that, as a team Liverpool are already very fluid and flexible within matches to change on the fly when needed. If the Reds do come out in a system that isn’t getting the job done, we have the ability to change and adapt. It could very well be a case of employing a type of hybrid of the two in order to get the job done.

Prediction

We are heading back to the European table for the first time in ages. I’ve dug into the archives to find our Napoli predictions and, just as I assumed, I got the better of David. I got 2 points for the Napoli match for predicting a win with a cleansheet whilst David only got the 1 for predicting a Reds’ victory. I now lead the table 7–6.

I think we go for the 4–3–3 in this one. I do expect Bayern to test their luck and try out our makeshift centerback pairing. Because of that, I think the game will better suit our 4–3–3. Plus, I think it will be easier for us to transition from a 4–3–3 into a 4–2–3–1, if needed, as opposed to the other way around.

Anfield will be rocking. Klopp will have the boys fired up to face an old rival. Robben and Hummels will still be feeling their past Anfield demons. It is as near perfect as a first leg in Europe can get. 3–1.

David’s Prediction: I’ve just heard Firmino is sick and is in doubt for this one. Whether it’s Sturridge or Origi replacing him, I don’t know, but I think both are better suited to a 4–2–3–1, yet I still don’t think we’ll set up that way and we could be in for a bit of a wild one. As long we bring the pace, however, I still think we’re favorites in the tie. Salah has a field day running at those center backs and puts the whole continent on watch. He only nets once but gets an assist hat trick, fueling a Mane brace and a much needed Naby Keita goal. 4–2 to the Reds in the end, but don’t expect it to be this crazy in the return fixture.