Albany

Bernie Sanders has a real chance to win the New York primary, an upset that would embarrass Hillary Clinton like no other defeat.

Sanders, for sure, is still a big underdog. But evidence that a Clinton victory is hardly inevitable was easy to find Monday.

First, there was Clinton's decision to spend the evening before the neck-and-neck Wisconsin primary in Cohoes — a sign she isn't taking New York for granted. In fact, Clinton has been all over the state in recent days, and Bill Clinton was scheduled to spend Tuesday in Buffalo and Rochester.

Then, there was the crowd of about 150 Sanders supporters who braved a raging snowstorm to rally for their candidate in Albany's West Capitol Park — proof that the real energy and enthusiasm of the campaign continues to be with the 74-year-old quasi-socialist from Vermont.

A Hillary rally on a 70-degree day bathed in sunshine wouldn't draw half as many people. Wait, do Clinton supporters even hold rallies that aren't attended by the candidate?

"I haven't seen a single Hillary bumper sticker in the Capital District," said Bernie supporter Larry Wittner, a retired University at Albany professor who attended Monday's rally. "I see Bernie bumper stickers everywhere."

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So do I. But maybe that's because I shop at the Honest Weight Food Co-op.

The themes Monday were familiar to anyone who's been paying attention to the Sanders campaign. Speakers mentioned income inequality a few hundred times, of course. Bernie was offered up as the candidate untainted by big money, especially Wall Street money. The horrors of fracking were also mentioned often.

"Feel the Bern! Feel the Bern!" chanted the crowd as the snow continued to fall.

Polls show a tightening New York race. In early February, a Siena survey showed Clinton beating Sanders by 21 percentage points. The lead was down to just 10 points in a CBS News poll released Sunday.

How close will the race be by the New York primary on April 19? My guess is that Hillary's lead will be down to about five percentage points — much too close for Clinton-campaign comfort.

It's stating the obvious that a close New York primary would be another bad sign for Hillary. She should be able to take this state for granted.

Clinton did, after all, represent New York in the U.S. Senate. She's known to voters here. She's been endorsed by nearly every major Democrat in the state. In 2008, she beat candidate Barack Obama easily in the state's primary, getting 57 percent of the vote.

But Bernie, unlike Obama, has deep New York roots — as his Larry David accent amply demonstrates. His emphasis on income inequality should resonate in New York City, where the gulf between rich and poor is staggering. His decades in Vermont give him upstate credibility, too.

The prediction here is that New York's Democratic primary will follow the contours of the Andrew Cuomo-Zephyr Teachout race in 2014.

Like Clinton, the incumbent governor — Cuomo, of course — was the unloved candidate with every financial advantage and support from the party establishment. Teachout, like Sanders, was the liberal underdog with Vermont roots and passionate support, though she never had Bernie's name recognition.

Teachout, you remember, made the race close enough to raise eyebrows — and she walloped Cuomo in the Capital Region, getting nearly 62 percent of the vote in its four core counties.

Yes, Teachout still lost by 27 points statewide, because she got killed in New York City. Bernie will need to do significantly better there to win the state, and there's no reason why he can't.

That the New York primary matters is remarkable. Few would have predicted it at the start of the year. It was just widely assumed that Clinton would quickly wrap up the nomination.

That she hasn't speaks to her vulnerability as a candidate. That New York could be close suggests the general-election difficulty she'd have against any Republican not named Trump or Cruz.

Which brings me to a brief mention of the GOP primary.

Alas, polls show that Trump has a big lead, which should embarrass every New Yorker. This could even be the first state where the candidate who continues to show a complete lack of presidential preparedness gets more than half the vote. God help us.

No, in New York the potential for drama and surprise rests only with the Democratic side. Bernie is going to make this interesting.

cchurchill@timesunion.com • 518-454-5442 • @chris_churchill