Indiana rockets up the list thanks to Evan Bayh’s entry. | AP Photo Senate race rankings: Map expands into Indiana and North Carolina

Senate Democrats feel that they have two main allies right now in their quest for a majority: Hillary Clinton, whose ground game and advertising are aligning with most of the key Senate swing states, and Donald Trump, whose awful August also brought some Senate Republicans’ poll numbers crashing down.

Democrats need to capture five seats to retake the Senate majority outright, though four would do if they get a tiebreaking Democratic vice president. And while Republicans have made significant progress in Florida and Ohio, which both fell in our rankings, the Senate story of the summer is a shifting and expanding map that looks better than ever for Democrats.


Indiana rockets up the list thanks to Evan Bayh’s entry, while Democrats have also made major strides in Pennsylvania and North Carolina — and are starting to wonder if they could expand the map further this fall. Holding Nevada remains a concerning wild card for Democrats, but Colorado has essentially fallen off the map, too, and it doesn’t look likely to climb back into Republicans’ sights this fall.

In the meantime, here are the 2016 Senate races ranked in order of each seat’s likelihood of changing partisan control this fall:

1. Illinois — GOP Sen. Mark Kirk is running for reelection (Previous ranking: 1)

Kirk has held the top spot on every iteration of this list so far, and Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth still leads in public polling. The biggest sign of trouble for Kirk, though, is that national Republican outside groups (which have presumably conducted their own private polling) have shown zero interest in this race in an expensive state. Kirk’s campaign was expected to make a major issue out of a whistleblower lawsuit filed by Duckworth’s former employees at the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs, but the original trial date was pushed back. One glimmer of hope for Kirk: A lack of public polling means it’s actually unclear where the race stands.

2. Wisconsin — GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for reelection (2)

Johnson has trailed in every public poll of the race. The senator and his allies have pointed to several recent surveys, including the respected Marquette University Law School poll, showing the margin closing — but other polls still have Johnson struggling against former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, who has a big advantage in campaign cash. Johnson’s fundraising has ticked up, and he’s getting help from the Koch brothers network, but he also parted ways with a top political adviser this summer — never a sign that things are going well.

3. Indiana — GOP Sen. Dan Coats is retiring (previously unranked)

This race was supposed to be over in May, when Rep. Todd Young won the GOP primary. But Democratic nominee Baron Hill dropped out in July to be replaced by former Sen. Evan Bayh — a stunning, audacious comeback attempt featuring perhaps the only Democrat who could win that seat in this year.

Bayh reentered the race with decades of built-up goodwill among Indiana voters, as well as millions of dollars already in his old campaign account, and it has showed in four separate Democratic internal polls showing Bayh ahead of Young by at least 16 percentage points. (The lone public poll of the race, conducted by Monmouth, had Bayh up by 7 points.)

Despite that, Republicans have not abandoned the state. While Young’s campaign suddenly looks underfunded against Bayh’s juggernaut, outside groups have picked up the slack with a string of anti-Bayh attacks seemingly tailor made for 2016, questioning Bayh’s residency, his D.C. consulting work for a law and lobbying firm, his corporate board compensation, and a voting record that includes support for Obamacare. The question is whether Republicans have time to make those attacks stick on a still-golden name in Indiana politics.

4. Pennsylvania — GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is running for reelection (5)

Republicans have long crowed about Democrat Katie McGinty’s weaknesses, and she delivered a poor speech in her moment in the national spotlight in July, at the Democratic National Convention. Yet since then, McGinty has practically gotten only good news.

While Toomey is polling about 5 percentage points ahead of Trump, the GOP presidential nominee’s support has dropped so far in the state that Toomey hasn’t led in a public poll since July. Along with the usual super PAC suspects, Toomey is also getting advertising help from Michael Bloomberg’s gun-control group and an endorsement from Gabrielle Giffords, which have highlighted the senator’s bipartisan credibility. But Pennsylvania continues to bedevil Republicans in presidential years, and it’s possible that Toomey could execute his campaign flawlessly and still fall in November.

5. New Hampshire — GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte is running for reelection (4)

Toomey and Ayotte find themselves in very similar situations, but Pennsylvania has moved ahead of New Hampshire in the rankings because recent polls have found McGinty with a larger edge in her state than Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan has had against Ayotte in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is traditionally closer than Pennsylvania in presidential contests, and Ayotte is actually running even farther ahead of Trump than Toomey is. But holding that margin against a candidate like Hassan, whose fundraising has outpaced Ayotte and remains widely popular in the state, will be easier said than done. Hassan has made some missteps, including a painful non-answer on CNN when she was asked about Clinton’s trustworthiness. And Republican outside groups have continued to attack the Democrat for her handling of the state’s heroin crisis. But Trump’s struggles have Ayotte fighting against a strong tide in New Hampshire.

6. Nevada — Democratic Sen. Harry Reid is retiring (7)

Nevada is without question Republicans’ best (and perhaps only) Senate pickup opportunity, but it may also be the single most difficult state to rank on this list. While President Barack Obama made the state practically uncompetitive at the presidential level in 2012, sparse polling this summer has shown both Trump and GOP Senate nominee Joe Heck neck and neck with their Democratic opponents.

Polls of Nevada are famously unreliable, often undercounting the state’s large minority population in Las Vegas. But Democrats are quietly worrying about Catherine Cortez Masto’s campaign to keep Reid’s seat, fearing that good work to gain the majority in other states could be undone in one where some Democrats expected to have an easier ride. A top Reid aide was recently dispatched to aid Cortez Masto’s campaign. The NRSC has been running ads attacking her for the state’s rising crime rates and for supporting the Iran nuclear deal, while Democrats have focused on attacking Heck on Social Security and ties to Wall Street.

7. North Carolina — GOP Sen. Richard Burr is running for reelection (10)

Democrats were bearish on North Carolina at the beginning of the year. But now it’s Republicans who are worrying about the state and Democrat Deborah Ross’ surprising strength in it.

Ross, a former state legislator and ACLU leader, wasn’t her party’s top pick to challenge Burr. But Burr — who has publicly declared he plans to do little campaigning until October — did not try to squash Ross this spring when she had little money or national support. Now they are running neck and neck in polls, fueled by Clinton’s strong push. Even the in-state environment isn’t great for Burr: GOP Gov. Pat McCrory trails in his reelection bid.

So far, Ross has climbed into contention without much spending for or against her. That will change in mid-September, when Senate Leadership Fund starts an $8.1 million media buy against her, likely leaning on some controversial positions Ross defended while at the ACLU. Democrats were pleased to see Ross on the rise this summer, but now they have just days to decide whether they want to spend money to give that a chance of continuing.

8. Florida — GOP Sen. Marco Rubio is running for reelection (3)

Weeks before Bayh’s entrance rocketed Indiana up this list, Rubio’s shock un-retirement in Florida shrank the odds that Republicans lose his seat. Rubio has led every poll against Democrat Patrick Murphy since he announced his reelection campaign in late June, and his campaign and GOP groups have relentlessly branded Murphy as a phony. They hoped for more help than they got from Alan Grayson, Murphy’s bombastic primary opponent and fellow Democratic House member.

But as in Nevada, the state’s large (and growing) population of minority voters is giving Democrats hope. Trump and Clinton have remained relatively close here, but Clinton has a massive ground-game advantage. If she pulls away, Democrats believe, she might be able to lift up Murphy, who has remained close to Rubio despite a big gap in name recognition. Of course, Republicans are planning to fill that gap by defining Murphy as a résumé exaggerator dependent on his father’s wealth. And a big chunk of Florida’s Hispanic population is Rubio’s base of fellow Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade.

9. Ohio — GOP Sen. Rob Portman is running for reelection (6)

On one side, Portman rose in the polls through August as most other Senate Republicans were getting into major trouble. And on the other side, Democrats are cutting back millions of dollars in TV reservations that were supposed to back Democrat Ted Strickland, thinking he might not be worth the expense anymore.

Strickland, the former governor whose high popularity held promise a year ago, might be the most disappointing candidate of 2016, though his problems aren’t all of his own making. Republicans have spent more money attacking Strickland than they have against any other Democrat in the country this election — including Clinton. Democrats still hope Clinton can pull away from Trump and drag Strickland across the finish line in November. But Portman has run a campaign focused on winning ticket-splitters, running ads on his work on the opioid crisis and pursuing labor endorsements. So far, it’s working better than any GOP Senate campaign in the country.

10. Missouri — GOP Sen. Roy Blunt is running for reelection (9)

Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander remains one of this election’s most heavily praised Senate candidates, with even Republican operatives conceding his biography and Army background set up a good contrast against Blunt’s long history in Washington. Polls consistently show Kander behind, but right on the edge of the margin of error against Blunt.

Yet Democrats would feel more bullish about the race if Missouri’s demographics were more favorable. The state is low on college-educated whites and minorities, and Clinton’s team has not targeted it in the presidential race. Republicans have yet to attack Kander on the air, either — though the GOP nonprofit One Nation did send over $1 million to the state in August to boost Blunt as a protector of Medicare.

11. Arizona — GOP Sen. John McCain is running for reelection (10)

McCain survived his primary against former state Sen. Kelli Ward, but his low vote share — just 52 percent — shows he continues to have problems with his Republican base. Now, McCain is facing the toughest Democratic challenge of his career from Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who is running behind McCain in public polling but has local Democrats excited about a late come-from-behind effort fueled by Latino backlash against Republicans from the top of the ticket (Trump) on down (Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio).

Arizona is still a Republican-leaning state, but one positive sign emerged for Kirkpatrick last week, when Clinton’s campaign started airing ads there. It’s too early to say whether the small national investment in TV and ground game is more than a head fake, but anything Democrats can do to boost Hispanic turnout figures to help Kirkpatrick, even though McCain is an immigration reform advocate.

12. Iowa — GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley is running for reelection (12)

Grassley is running his first negative ads in 18 years as he faces off against Democrat Patty Judge, a former lieutenant governor. But while Judge may give Grassley his closest race in ages, that doesn’t necessarily mean much against an entrenched incumbent who has regularly won more than two-thirds of Iowans’ votes. Judge’s signature issue — Grassley’s refusal to hold hearings on Obama’s Supreme Court nomination — has also largely faded from view. If the Trump train completely derails, this race could become one to watch, but for now, Judge consistently trails Grassley in polls — often by double digits.

13. Georgia — GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson is running for reelection (previously unranked)

There’s been a lot of discussion of Clinton contesting this state, which is traditionally Republican but also has a growing Democratic base of minority voters. Isakson’s first television ads are aimed squarely at Democratic voters, signaling he wants to pad his margins with ticket-splitters. And several recent polls have signaled the possibility that Isakson could get pulled under 50 percent in November, triggering a runoff. But Democrat Jim Barksdale, a businessman who is self-funding his campaign, is still largely unknown in the state. Without knowing exactly how much Barksdale is willing to spend, it’s hard to know how much faith to have in a total political newcomer.

14. Kentucky — GOP Sen. Rand Paul is running for reelection (13)

Lexington’s Democratic Mayor Jim Gray is running as a nonpartisan problem solver, but the "(D)" next to his name may as well be an anchor around his ankle in Kentucky these days. While it looks like he may get help from a personal super PAC, that doesn’t appear to be enough to knock off Paul, whom Republicans thought could be vulnerable last fall.

15. Louisiana — GOP Sen. David Vitter is retiring (15)

GOP State Treasurer John Kennedy appears to be the front-runner in the state’s jungle primary, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be able to reach the 50 percent mark needed to avoid a runoff. Reps. Charles Boustany and John Fleming are hoping to make the runoff an all-Republican affair, while Democrats Foster Campbell and Caroline Fayard want to replicate John Bel Edwards’ stunning 2015 gubernatorial upset of Vitter. But there isn't a Senate Republican with Vitter's personal baggage in this race.

Former KKK leader David Duke has provided the Democrats with a boogeyman to run against, but he’ll likely be a minor factor in the race, polling in the mid- to high single digits.