Read the breathless articles and bold tweets and you could be forgiven for thinking that the fully autonomous vehicle is around the corner, with a collision- and congestion-free future riding shotgun.

Prepare for disappointment. A decade of massive investment in robocar tech has spawned impressive progress, but the arrival of a truly driverless car—the car that can go anywhere anytime, without human help—remains delayed indefinitely. Despite Elon Musk's self-assured claim that Teslas will have “full self-driving” capability by the end of 2020, the world is too diverse and unpredictable, the robots too expensive and temperamental, for cars to navigate all the things human drivers navigate now. Even John Krafcik, CEO of Waymo (the grown-up company that was Google's self-driving car project), agrees, saying last year, “Autonomy always will have some constraints.”

That reality has pushed AV outfits to embrace “operational design domains,” engineer-ese for picking one's battles. They'll aim their tech at specific tasks it can handle, now or soon. The best way to understand the self-driving world is to ask not when it will arrive, but where. And how. And for whom.

Violet Reed

DRIVER-FREE(ISH) SHUTTLES

Today, real self-driving shuttles are working stretches of busy downtowns, operating in cities like Detroit and Columbus, Ohio. With a catch: The routes are extremely limited, typically just a mile or two. Also, they sometimes come with a driver at the wheel, just to babysit the tech.

READINESS : Probably in the next few years

: Probably in the next few years KEY PLAYERS : May Mobility, Ultra Global PRT

: May Mobility, Ultra Global PRT BEST-CASE SCENARIO : Regular, quick, cheap, painless rides to the nearest train station.

: Regular, quick, cheap, painless rides to the nearest train station. WORST CASE: Lidar goes dark and you have to lug your own damn luggage a couple miles.

Violet Reed

CAMPUS RUNABOUTS

Defined spaces like universities, residential neighborhoods, and senior living facilities are ideal testing ground for AVs: Traffic moves slowly, people follow predictable schedules, and roads are well marked. That's why some companies are debuting rides in subdivisions in Boston and senior developments in California and Florida.