The first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs features two powerhouse teams in beautiful California, the San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings. Fans filled with bloodlust will salivate at the hard-hitting and tight-checking hockey that Western Conference playoff hockey represents. Stats nerds will blow loads on their spreadsheets trying to figure out who will come out on top. This series should be 7 games of frenetic hockey that can excite any fan (except us east-coasters who enjoy sleeping). I’m going to focus more on the numbers side, and how you can use them in pivotal moments. If you are intimidated by fancy stats, don’t be. Come playoff time, they provide added clarity for a team’s ability to defend a lead or stage a miracle comeback. It can help explain all of the magic and drama come playoff time.

Both of these teams are the darlings of advanced-stats followers, and for good reason. Despite having amazing regular season records, they leave much more to be desired in the goals column, which can be a scary thing to think about if you are another team in the West. Luckily for some (*cough Anaheim* *cough Colorado*), one of these teams will be eliminated far earlier than they should. Each team has major strengths and weaknesses that can be interpreted through the underlying stats.

Stats in 5v5 situations become even more enhanced come playoff time, where refs are more notorious for keeping their hands firmly entrenched in their pockets rather than holding whistles. While some exceptions can occur in a game-to-game basis, we can have a general idea of how important these stats are. In 5v5 “close” situations (where the game is within one goal after two periods or tied in the third), we can get a feel for how well a team plays when under pressure. A high Corsi Close or Fenwick Close indicates a team is controlling the play through possession and shots, a very good attribute in the intense moments of a tight playoff game. In a playoff situation, I prefer the use of Fenwick over Corsi due to the fact that it ignores blocked shots. Players are willing to do whatever it takes in a playoff game, throwing their faces in front of shots at will. FF% allows for the glorification of this determination, while also rewarding teams that can get shots through the piles of humanity in front of them. After 81 games, the LA Kings lead the league in Fenwick For percentage (FF%) at 56.7%, which is bordering on a ridiculously high number, whereas the Sharks sit 3rd in the league at 54.6%. Since both of these values are impressive while isolated, we can also use other metrics to determine who truly has the edge.

Despite being 8th in the league in shots for, the Kings have a ludicrously low shooting percentage at only 6.1%. When you consider the talent on that team, an uptick in shooting percentage seems almost automatic. The Sharks have a more respectable shooting percentage at 7.5% (18th in the league), but they are also due for a slight increase due to being third in the league in shots for! When you consider these don’t include missed/blocked shots, these stats become even more intimidating. I truly feel for any fans of the losing team in this matchup.

With these incredible shot metrics for both teams, the old cliché arises that the goalie must be the team’s best player come playoff time. While both goalies have won a Stanley Cup previously, this is where the matchup begins to clear up. The Kings are second in the league with a 93.6 Sv% in 5v5 close situations, which almost completely absolves the team of what little lost possession they have. The Sharks, meanwhile, have a 92.1 Sv%, which leaves enough volatility to cause concern when playing a powerhouse shooting team with an abnormally low shooting percentage. Based on the underlying stats of the most common type of play variant, the Kings seems to have a moderate edge over the Sharks.

While 5v5close is the most accurate measure of a team’s skill in a common play variant, playoff atmosphere can cause tensions to run high. If discipline is rampantly abandoned in an attempt to intimidate, the Sharks become a much scarier team. While 5v4, the Sharks generate the most shots in the league at 483, yet sit 25th in 5v4 Sh% (9.7%). When you combine that with an 88.8 FF% (not to mention the personnel they possess), the Sharks are due to breakout in a big way on the powerplay. While the Kings have a similar shooting percentage (9.4%), they don’t generate nearly as many shots (406). Darryl Sutter would be wise to avoid tempting fate, and I feel that undisciplined play will result in a long stay on the bench.

Considering the underlying statistics, this series may come down to how each coach manages their bench.

As these graphs show, the Kings have a decided advantage in favourable zone starts (due to their obscene CF/FF), and possession seems spread out evenly over 4 lines. While the Shark’s graph may not look as pretty (remember: the darker the blue, the better), but their best players hit the sweet spot of player usage charts. Unfavourable zone starts combined with high quality of competition should result in lost possession, but most of the Sharks top-6 maintains possession despite the disadvantages of their play. Todd McLellan trusts his top guns to carry the load in the defensive end, allowing his less-skilled forwards to gain more favourable matchups.

All of these metrics are important to consider, but can they actually determine who will win this series? Advanced stats can give us an insight as to what strategy each team should be striving towards in-game. We can determine that the Kings are more likely to dictate 5v5 possession, but that the Sharks are not as affected as other teams due to previous player usage habits. What this series may come down to is the bottom six play of both teams. An unsung plugger getting hot at the right time for either team could be enough to turn the entire tide of the series. Makes for great drama, doesn’t it?