The Debate over Debates

I recently noted a proliferation of stories about endangered Republican House incumbents avoiding debates. In places like OH-12, CA-45, CA-48, NY-27, and IL-14, Democratic House candidates have been hitting their opponents on their unwillingness to publicly discuss the issues important to voters. I began to wonder: how widespread is this problem?

To answer this question, I compiled a dataset of the 68 races currently rated Lean D, Toss-Up, or Lean R by Cook Political Report. I searched online for evidence that a debate had yet occurred or was scheduled for the future. I was startled to find that about one third of the races — fully 22 (32%) of the 68 — do not yet appear to have a debate scheduled.

The seats, all currently held by Republicans, are listed below:

Race Rating CA-50 Lean Rep FL-15 Lean Rep GA-6 Lean Rep IL-14 Lean Rep MO-2 Lean Rep NC-2 Lean Rep NY-27 Lean Rep OH-12 Lean Rep SC-1 Lean Rep TX-31 Lean Rep WV-3 Lean Rep CA-45 Toss-Up CA-48 Toss-Up FL-26 Toss-Up FL-27 Toss-Up NC-13 Toss-Up NM-2 Toss-Up PA-1 Toss-Up TX-7 Toss-Up TX-32 Toss-Up CO-6 Lean D MI-11 Lean D

It’s important to note that not all of these races fit the “Republican incumbent ducking debates” narrative. Some, like MI-11 and NM-2, are open seats where I can’t find evidence for either candidate publicly seeking a debate. And even some Dems facing incumbents aren’t prioritizing debates in the closing weeks of their campaigns.

Nonetheless, many races fit a pattern of Republicans seeking to delegitimize opponents by refusing to share a debate stage. And, as I’ll discuss below, the problem is particularly acute for younger Democratic candidates.

Comparison to 2016

Is the paucity of debates this year notable? At least relative to the last election, the answer appears to be yes.

I analyzed the final Cook ratings from 2016. The playing field was narrower that year, with only 37 races rated Lean D, Toss-Up, or Lean R. But of these races, I only found six (16%) where a debate wasn’t ultimately scheduled: CA-10, CA-49, KS-03, MI-08, NV-03, and NV-04.

With four weeks until the election, there are certainly still opportunities to schedule debates. Some race ratings will also change. But as it stands, the proportion of competitive House races without a debate may double relative to the last election.

What correlates with a debate?

Seeing these data, I had two hypotheses that were immediately proven false. First, I supposed that incumbent Republicans would be less likely to debate than non-incumbent Republicans. But I found that the proportion was virtually identical between the two groups: 32% for non-incumbents vs. 33% for incumbents.

I also thought Republican males might be hesitant to debate female Democratic challengers. But no — it turns out that races between Republican men and Democratic women actually have the best debate coverage. Races with female Republicans are less likely to have debates, with all-female races the least likely of all. Yet the overall number of such races is small, so we should be cautious in over-interpreting these results.

The percentage of un-debated races of each type is provided below, with the total number of such races in parentheses:

Dem Gender Male Female Rep

Gender Male 28% (25) 26% (27) Female 43% (7) 56% (9)

A somewhat stronger relationship is found when looking at the race ratings. The more a competitive race favors the Republican, the less likely there is to be a debate scheduled:

This makes intuitive sense: if the Republican candidate senses he or she is favored, then a debate has little upside and much potential risk. But if he or she is behind, then it’s worth publicly sparring with the Democratic opponent.

A final, surprisingly salient effect is that of the Democratic candidate’s age. Specifically, the youngest crop of nominees — those 35 and under — have been denied debates at high rates. Again, the total number of such nominees is small (only a dozen), so we should exercise some caution. The percent of races without a debate by Dem nominee age is given below:

Dem Nominee 35 and Under Dem Nominee 36+ 58% (12) 27% (56)

Further analysis showed that neither the Republican’s age nor the candidate age gap seemed to be a strong predictor. And the relationship isn’t linear: Democrats ages 36 to 45 secured debates just as often as Democrats over 45.

Again, there seems to be a fairly intuitive explanation. The youngest Democratic candidates will often be those with the shortest resumes. Republicans, particularly if they are incumbents, can assail such opponents as inexperienced and unprepared for the rigors of the job. Sharing a debate stage with a young opponent would implicitly lend them legitimacy as seekers of higher office. And it would force Republicans into a face-off with young and frequently telegenic candidates.

So it’s clear why Republicans House candidates are well-served to avoid debating their opponents. Less well-served, of course, is democracy itself.