Forget tax breaks or middle-class welfare. Rightwing political parties’ best chance of rapidly winning over voters could be via the lottery, according to new research.



A joint Australian and British study has found that lottery winners tend to switch their political allegiances to rightwing parties after their windfalls. They also appear to become less egalitarian and less concerned by the challenges faced by people on low incomes.

The research analysed more than 4,000 British citizens who won up to £200,000 ($365,000) on the country’s national lottery. Most of these wins were of relatively small amounts, with only 541 people winning over £500 ($910). In all, there were around 11,000 observations of winners, due to the fact that many people won money more than once.

Even among those who won small amounts of money, researchers found a clear trend of lottery winners switching support from the Labour party, traditionally a leftwing party, to the rightwing Conservatives.

Existing Conservative voters who won lottery money said their support for the party had strengthened after the lucky break, while winners from all political persuasions were more likely to say that ordinary people already had a fair share of wealth, compared with before their win.

Nearly 18% of winners immediately switched support to the Conservatives after their wins over the course of the study, which was based on household panel surveys taken each year from 1996 to 2009.

Overall, 45% of people who won more than £500 on the lottery said they supported rightwing parties, compared with 38% of non-winners throughout the course of the studies.

The lurch to the right was more pronounced for those who won large amounts of money and was more common among men than women.

Researchers – from the University of Melbourne and the University of Warwick – said that studying lottery winners “isn’t perfect” due to unknown biases such as the personality traits of people who play the lottery in the first place.

But they point out that more than 50% of the British population plays the lottery on a regular basis. Data on how lottery wins correlate with political views has yet to be gathered in Australia.

Professor Nattavudh Powdthavee, a report co-author at the University of Melbourne, told Guardian Australia that the researchers were studying whether political ideologies are driven by deeply held ethical views or self-interest.

“The amount won in the lottery is completely randomised but we saw that the more you win, the more right-leaning you become,” he said. “You are more likely to favour rightwing ideas, such as lower taxation, and are less favourable to redistributive policies.

“The change was instant following the lottery win. We could track it from year to year and saw there was almost no lag time, particularly if there was a large win over £500.”

The study claims to be the first of its type but it cites a US study that shows a high degree of hostility among lottery winners towards certain taxes.

A separate American paper from 2012, conducted by researchers at Berkeley University, found that the wealthier people become, the less compassionate they are. Researchers found luxury car drivers were more likely to cut off other drivers rather than wait for them at an intersection, while rich people cared less than people on lower incomes about a person who had to build a patio while suffering from cancer.