As FC Cincinnati fights for a new stadium, Major League Soccer could choose Nashville

Even if Hamilton County and Cincinnati say yes to a soccer stadium for FC Cincinnati, Major League Soccer might still say no.

Amid the brinksmanship, hasty news conferences and telephone calls between FC Cincinnati and local leaders in the last two weeks, it’s easy to forget there's no guarantee FC Cincinnati will be one of the two new MLS expansion teams chosen Dec. 14.

Many experts see Sacramento as a shoo-in, the theory being MLS wants one on the West Coast and one in the eastern United States.

That leaves Cincinnati and Nashville as the top two contenders for the other spot.

How does Cincinnati stack up against Nashville? It’s close, but some experts have put Nashville slightly ahead.

Nashville vaulted to the top on Nov. 6 when its metro council approved a $275 million plan for a soccer-only stadium on an old fairground. The stadium would be the home of Nashville Soccer Club, which will debut next year in the United Soccer League.

“This is a massive victory for the Nashville MLS bid,” tweeted MLS reporter Jeff Rueter after Nashville Metro Council approved the stadium package. “They cleared the biggest hurdle remaining, and with aplomb.”

Other experts agree that Nashville has a head start over Cincinnati. Getting the stadium plan in place ahead of time rather than last-minute like Cincinnati could be a factor, said Kevin Reichard, editor of Soccer Stadium Digest, one of a group of Wisconsin-based publications devoted to the sports industry and stadium trends.

Reichard's latest handicapping of the MLS expansion bid puts Sacramento and Nashville on top with Cincinnati close behind.

“Nashville and Sacramento already have a new stadium plan in place,” Reichard said. “That means a lot, at least in this go-round.”

Where much of FC Cincinnati’s plans for a stadium in Oakley have been released in the last two weeks, Nashville has talked all year about its stadium.

The past three months the Nashville council has held public meetings to get input on how to pay for a stadium, said Councilman Colby Sledge, who has led the charge for the new stadium to be built in his district.

The stadium financing package passed the city council with a 31-6 vote. Getting more than 30 votes for such a massive project is almost unheard of for the 40-member metro city council, Sledge said.

“It’s like having a 6-0 score in soccer,” Sledge said.

Under Nashville’s plan, the soccer club would be responsible for most of the cost of the $275 million stadium.

Here are key points of Nashville’s stadium deal:

The soccer club will pay the city $25 million up front for construction of the stadium.

The stadium would have 27,500 seats.

The Nashville SC would pay off the $13 million annual debt for the stadium for 30 years with a combination of lease payments, sales tax revenue and a $1.75 ticket tax.

Nashville taxpayers will pay $25 million for public infrastructure to the fairgrounds If all goes well, $25 million will be the extent of government investment in the stadium. But if sales tax revenue doesn’t come at the projected $4 million a year, Nashville Metro would have to cover the gap for the first five years. For years five through 10, Nashville would be on the hook to cover the gap up to $3 million a year.

In comparison, FC Cincinnati has asked for $75 million in infrastructure investment from Cincinnati and Hamilton County for a 21,000-seat stadium.The stadium would be publicly owned under a proposal by Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley.

Cranley has proposed the Greater Cincinnati Redevelopment Authority, also known as the port authority, would own the property and lease it to FC Cincinnati.

Several factors give Nashville momentum for the MLS bid, Sledge said. One is hockey. The Nashville Predators made a run this year for the Stanley Cup in the NHL playoffs, making it to the finals. The enthusiasm for the Predators made the MLS stadium an easier pitch to the public, Sledge said.

Also, the media market in Nashville is bigger. The Nashville television market ranks 29th in size, while Cincinnati ranks 36th, according to AC Nielsen.

Even though Nashville SC hasn’t played a game yet, that might not count against it in the eyes of MLS. Other MLS teams have experienced massive success in their first year, Reichard said. Atlanta United FC broke MLS attendance records in its first season this year, drawing as many as 70,000 to games.

But don’t be discouraged, FC Cincinnati fans.

FC Cincinnati still makes a compelling case, even if the stadium package comes together at the last minute, Reichard said.

“I think Cincinnati is in really good shape,” Reichard said. “There are excellent bids out there. Certainly, Cincinnati is considered on the short list.”

Nashville leaders also don't see their bid as a slam dunk. They recognize the passion of FC Cincinnati fans.

“We’re all on pins and needles,” Sledge said. “What FC Cincinnati has done is amazing in terms of fan support. Cincinnati is an incredibly deserving city. We’re hoping we can bring it home to Nashville.”