Paxton Lynch won’t be going first overall. He won’t be one of the first two quarterbacks drafted in the 2016 draft. He hasn’t received nearly the same amount of attention.

But based on film and projecting for the future, Paxton Lynch is the best quarterback in this NFL Draft. Period.

While Jared Goff has showed great timing on his mid-field throws and Carson Wentz looks the part of a strong-armed franchise passer, both lack the innate decisiveness, poise and elite quarterback upside that Lynch has displayed during his college career.

MORE: See where Lynch falls in SN's latest NFL Mock Draft



Paxton Lynch (Getty Images)

Program and personal development

Arriving at Memphis as an under-recruited, three-star Florida prospect, Lynch quickly emerged as the team’s starting quarterback and the face of a program in desperate need of a rebuild. Along with head coach Justin Fuente, Lynch slowly turned a dreadful Memphis program into one of the best Group of Five teams in the country.

Lynch’s role in Memphis’s growth both illustrates his quarterback ceiling and displays why he’ll be able to adjust to any NFL offense. He’s overcome terrible offensive line play over the last two seasons — breakdowns in blocking that forced Lynch to adjust under duress and improve as a mobile quarterback.

Lynch’s role in helping a program like Memphis grow speaks volumes about his leadership, appreciation for the building process and making do with lesser talent around him. These three traits are essential for young NFL quarterbacks as front offices eventually build around them. While Jared Goff can offer similar experiences — having helped lead Cal from the bottom of the Pac-12 to a respectable 8-5 record by his junior season — Goff was surrounded by a lot more NFL talent than Lynch.

The proof in the pudding: It is unlikely another Memphis offensive player will be drafted in this or next year’s draft.

MORE: Find everything you need to know at SN's NFL Draft hub

Physical tools and traits

Paxton Lynch stands at 6’7, 244 pounds, but that doesn’t mean he’s lacking athletically. Running a 4.86 at the NFL Scouting Combine and posting the best vertical and broad jump of any quarterback in attendance, Lynch displayed his athletic upside and moved with the balance and body control of an above average out-of-pocket mover.

Lynch clearly possesses a strong arm, but it’s the way he uses his arm talent that allows him to finish throws both on the perimeter and downfield, as well as set up his receivers for yards after the catch. The ability to adjust one’s arm angle and utilize touch is a clear advantage Lynch has over Carson Wentz, and it’s a skill set that many young quarterbacks struggle with.

Lynch's combination of athleticism, arm strength and the ability to adjust throws on the fly help make up for the concerns that often show up in his scouting report: the lackluster footwork, the lackluster mechanics, the limitations of the scheme he ran in college. Ultimately, Lynch has proven he can throw off balance, finish a throw with touch or high velocity and stay cool under pressure. Those skills translate to the next level, and cure much of what ails him.

While often compared to Brock Osweiler for his size and relative need for development, Lynch is far more pro-ready than the recently-signed Texans quarterback, both mentally and mechanically. Lynch has plenty of room to grow, but he profiles as a rookie starter who may thrive in a learn-by-playing atmosphere, as evidenced by his college career path and his ability to use his athleticism and arm talent to keep himself out of trouble.

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Decisiveness, poise and intuition

What truly makes Paxton Lynch a special quarterback prospect are his innate abilities as a passer. Good quarterbacks in the NFL can react post-snap, anticipate play progressions and finish open opportunities. Jared Goff can do those things for you. Carson Wentz, in flashes, has shown he can grow into a quarterback who can thrive in those situations.

But Lynch can surpass that. Lynch thrives on broken plays, remaining calm and confident as he’s evading pressure and setting up to make throws. He’s able to keep his release consistent even in in the midst of chaos. He’s able to play with a composed, finishing release when working to his right or left, when he’s off balance or able to stand steady, and whether the throw is across his body or downfield.

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More importantly, Lynch’s decisiveness and intuition propels him into the top echelon of passers in this draft class. Lynch is an “educated gunslinger." He’s willing to take chances on throws without reservation thanks to his decisive confidence, but he’s not reckless in this throws. He’s efficient in his ball placement and rarely gifts defensive backs with easy turnovers, yet gives his receivers the opportunity to finish in traffic and, when possible, have room to maximize their yards after the catch.

Lynch’s reliability as a passer despite being a risk-taker is displayed in his interception totals as a junior. While stats don’t always account for a quarterback’s future play, the fact that Lynch had just four interceptions thrown this year (two of which were receiver drops that turned into turnovers), yet still had 13 explosive passes (completions of 40 yards or more), certainly indicates his NFL potential.

Each of the top three quarterbacks give teams reason to be excited about their potential. Jared Goff is remarkably bright, his football IQ off the charts, his mid-field throwing ability already at veteran levels. Carson Wentz offers ideal character and mental makeup, with a body type and ample arm talent that scream top-flight quarterback upside.

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But Paxton Lynch offers a higher ceiling than both. He’s a tall, strong-armed passer who thrived at a building program despite limited talent around him. He’s a top-flight athlete among quarterbacks who can succeed inside and outside the pocket. And most intriguingly, he capitalizes on a rare intuition and confidence, not solely route anticipation, to produce big plays as a passer.

Luckily for Lynch, he’ll likely end up in an offense better than Goff will in Los Angeles or Wentz will in Philadelphia, potentially on a playoff roster in New York or Denver. But regardless of where he lands, Lynch should be the best quarterback in this class in a few years.

And the team that scoops up this year’s top quarterback prospect will be thankful they didn’t mortgage their future for Goff or Wentz, happy to capitalize on Lynch’s upside.