Who’s the favorite to win the U20 World Cup? France, right? Maybe if you’ve been paying attention you’ve heard Portugal mentioned as well. Let’s make this easy. Here’s the total value (in US dollars) of each team in the field.

I wonder why France and Portugal are the favorites…

These numbers, as usual, are taken from Transfermarkt and are listed in dollars. France has a ridiculous wealth of talent and will probably win every World Cup in every age bracket forever, but let’s take a closer look anyway.

Group D

Here are the rosters from group D (the US’ group)

You’ll notice quite a few blank spots in some of the rosters, Nigeria especially. That doesn’t necessarily mean those are bad players, it just means Transfermarkt hasn’t assigned them a value yet. They haven’t gotten to the point where they are well-known enough to be assigned a value.

However, if a player has a value in Transfermarkt, and especially if that value is high-ish, it indicates that the player has broken through, to some extent, into the first team of a professional league. That loosely means that player is better than one that hasn’t accomplished that feat yet.

If we go by straight team value Ukraine should win Group D. Most of that value comes from two players Andriy Lunin (GK) – plays at Leganes on loan from Real Madrid and Vladyslav Supriaha (Fwd) – plays sparingly for Dynamo Kyiv. Are these two player so good that they make the Ukraine the favorite to win the group? Tbh I’m not sure.

If Samuel Chukwueze (Villarreal) had been made available to Nigeria the US would have dropped to 3rd in total value because Chukwueze is valued at a little over 11 million on his own. I tend to think some of the US players are undervalued (I don’t trust myself to think about these players dispassionately though), but the point is that of the entire US roster – only Pomykal and Cerillo are playing first team soccer in a first division league. The US has a ways to go before we are on level footing with the big boys.

Let’s not give up quite yet though. Mexico is the 5th most valuable team in the competition with a value of just over 20 million, but more than 15 million of that is due to Diego Lainez. Sergino Dest handled him rather comfortably at the CONCACAF U20 Championship even though Dest checks in with a measly value of 171k.

And Qatar… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ They posted their roster this morning. They have no results to look at and the players are pretty much unknowns. Listen to the most recent Scuffed podcast for any useful information on them.

For more specifics on the US roster check this out from a couple weeks ago.

The Favorites

Here are France and Portugal’s rosters:

Both of these teams are loaded with players that are first team regulars in leagues all over Europe. Again, this doesn’t necessarily mean that a more valuable player = better player, but I would say that it means a more proven player. These two teams are head and shoulders the teams with the most high level playing experience.

Conclusion

The best teams don’t always win and the most valuable team isn’t always the best team. BUT, money/value is a pretty darn good indicator of quality. France has it, Portugal has it and the US might have it. If the team makes a deep run you can bet that the valuations of many of these players will increase sharply.

Winning the tournament is obviously the goal, but if the US gets drawn against France/Portugal in the knockout rounds…that is a chance for some of these players and clubs to make some money. DC United looks like they are betting on Durkin having a good tournament and cashing in this summer. This is the most excited I’ve ever been about a US U20 group. I think they’re going to be a whole lot more valuable this time next month.

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