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SALT LAKE CITY — The Jazz had just lost to the Phoenix Suns, and head coach Quin Snyder wasn't happy. The team had turned the ball over 24 times in a loss to a team that had just fired its coach. Adding insult to injury, they allowed the Suns to grab 16 offensive rebounds.

"The fact that we were in the game even — to gift a team 40 possessions, you'd have to have a monumental shooting night to overcome that," Snyder said then.

Since then, the Jazz have rebounded, both literally and figuratively, with a 3-0 record. They're doing a better job of holding onto the ball, and when an opponent misses shots, they've started to clear the glass well.

But the experience was enough to make me wonder: how hard is it to win games in the NBA when you turnover the ball that frequently? Is there a "magic" number of turnovers you just have to avoid, or a certain amount of second chances you just can't give to your opponent?

And while we're looking at that, let's round it out by looking at the other "four factors," the four NBA stats that determine 96 percent of winning. How badly can a team shoot the ball and still have a chance to escape with a win? And what about the free-throw line: how hard is it to win games if you don't give yourself free points?

To investigate, I downloaded the team stats for every NBA game since (and including) the 2010-11 season. With 8,369 games in all, it would have been difficult to do manually, but Jason Roman's NBASense project helped me find the data I needed using the NBA's own API.

Then, it was just a matter of calculating the four factors for each game: effective field goal percentage (a measure of how well a team shoots), turnover percentage (what percentage of a team's possessions do they cough up the ball?), offensive rebounding percentage (what percentage of a team's own misses do they end up getting back?) and FT/FGA (how many times does a team get to the line, and how frequently do they make those freebies?).

After that, it was a matter of sorting those games by each of the factors and seeing how frequently that team won or lost games with a factor above or below that benchmark.

So let's take a look at my original question: how likely are you to win if you give up wads of turnovers? Likewise, how likely are you to win if you take good care of the ball?

If your team's TOV% is higher than this TOV% If your team's TOV% is lower than this TOV% TOV% Wins Losses Win % % of games TOV% Wins Losses Win% % of games 6 8250 8279 50% 99% 6 120 90 57% 1% 7 8095 8163 50% 97% 7 274 207 57% 3% 8 7832 7961 50% 94% 8 539 409 57% 6% 9 7382 7665 49% 90% 9 988 704 58% 10% 10 6753 7154 49% 83% 10 1621 1216 57% 17% 11 5942 6481 48% 74% 11 2431 1891 56% 26% 12 5020 5702 47% 64% 12 3352 2668 56% 36% 13 4072 4752 46% 53% 13 4298 3618 54% 47% 14 3127 3804 45% 41% 14 5243 4567 53% 59% 15 2273 2932 44% 31% 15 6098 5441 53% 69% 16 1554 2172 42% 22% 16 6816 6197 52% 78% 17 1007 1497 40% 15% 17 7362 6873 52% 85% 18 623 980 39% 10% 18 7747 7389 51% 90% 19 362 609 37% 6% 19 8008 7760 51% 94% 20 193 366 35% 3% 20 8177 8005 51% 97% 21 108 224 33% 2% 21 8262 8146 50% 98% 25 5 21 19% 0% 25 8365 8348 50% 100%

It's less impactful than I thought! Even the Jazz, the highest-turnover team in the league, have only turned the ball over on 20 percent of possessions in one game this season, the aforementioned Phoenix contest. The data shows they still could have had a chance to win that if they did other things right. And keeping turnovers super low doesn't help too much either: keeping the ball to the highest degree only gives about a 57 percent chance of winning.

Let's look at rebounds: How many offensive boards do you need to win?

If your team's OREB% is higher than this OREB% If your team's OREB% is lower than this OREB% OREB% Wins Losses Win % % of games OREB% Wins Losses Win% % of games 8 8298 8293 50% 99% 8 72 76 49% 1% 12 8085 8033 50% 96% 12 285 343 45% 4% 14 7819 7696 50% 93% 14 553 683 45% 7% 16 7483 7299 51% 88% 16 894 1086 45% 12% 18 6982 6692 51% 82% 18 1396 1695 45% 18% 20 6485 6059 52% 75% 20 2074 2491 45% 27% 22 5608 5175 52% 64% 22 2776 3232 46% 36% 24 4845 4255 53% 54% 24 3543 4150 46% 46% 26 4064 3414 54% 45% 26 4320 5002 46% 56% 28 3207 2609 55% 35% 28 5178 5795 47% 66% 30 2508 1919 57% 26% 30 5940 6524 48% 74% 32 1829 1304 58% 19% 32 6556 7095 48% 82% 34 1386 870 61% 13% 34 7000 7514 48% 87% 36 891 509 64% 8% 36 7494 7870 49% 92% 38 551 306 64% 5% 38 7828 8070 49% 95% 40 354 182 66% 3% 40 8042 8209 49% 97% 44 96 51 65% 1% 44 8274 8319 50% 99% 48 29 15 66% 0% 48 8343 8354 50% 100%

Again, the correlation isn't very high! The teams with the lowest offensive rebounding rates still have won 45 percent of their games. Perhaps some of this is because the league's best teams over the past few seasons have eschewed the offensive glass in favor of transition defense. Getting a ton of offensive rebounds certainly helps, but it's not enough to guarantee victory either.

How about getting to the free throw line? Is there a magic number of shots that are useful there?

If your team's FT/FGA is higher than this FT/FGA If your team's FT/FGA is lower than this FT/FGA FT/FGA Wins Losses Win % % of games FT/FGA Wins Losses Win% % of games 6 8318 8279 50% 99% 6 51 91 36% 1% 8 8222 8109 50% 98% 8 149 263 36% 2% 10 8026 7777 51% 94% 10 358 612 37% 6% 12 7689 7252 51% 89% 12 685 1126 38% 11% 14 7175 6527 52% 82% 14 1195 1849 39% 18% 16 6516 5737 53% 73% 16 1859 2648 41% 27% 18 5753 4803 54% 63% 18 2617 3568 42% 37% 20 5025 3997 56% 54% 20 3449 4485 43% 47% 22 4159 3111 57% 43% 22 4211 5262 44% 57% 24 3412 2413 59% 35% 24 4969 5974 45% 65% 26 2642 1715 61% 26% 26 5741 6670 46% 74% 28 2033 1237 62% 20% 28 6358 7149 47% 81% 30 1532 859 64% 14% 30 6877 7522 48% 86% 32 1110 607 65% 10% 32 7271 7768 48% 90% 36 550 265 67% 5% 36 7823 8108 49% 95% 40 262 119 69% 2% 40 8121 8258 50% 98% 44 114 48 70% 1% 44 8257 8321 50% 99% 48 51 17 75% 0% 48 8318 8353 50% 100%

There's more here. Getting to the line and getting those easy points might be a big factor in whether or not a team wins games. Of course, that also might be because the players who get to the line most are usually the league's best players, and it's good to have them on your team.

And finally, the big one: Is there a baseline amount of shots that you just have to make in order to get a win?

If your team's eFG% is higher than this eFG% If your team's eFG% is lower than this eFG% eFG% Wins Losses Win % % of games eFG% Wins Losses Win% % of games 32 8368 8347 50% 100% 32 1 23 4% 0% 36 8362 8202 50% 99% 36 7 169 4% 1% 40 8277 7543 52% 95% 40 102 864 11% 6% 42 8139 6866 54% 90% 42 230 1507 13% 10% 44 7885 5919 57% 82% 44 486 2465 16% 18% 46 7453 4824 61% 73% 46 923 3561 21% 27% 48 6741 3640 65% 62% 48 1636 4749 26% 38% 50 5916 2677 69% 51% 50 2738 6007 31% 52% 52 4681 1567 75% 37% 52 3700 6810 35% 63% 54 3593 913 80% 27% 54 4787 7464 39% 73% 56 2571 486 84% 18% 56 5809 7890 42% 82% 58 1713 218 89% 12% 58 6670 8154 45% 89% 60 1094 85 93% 7% 60 7305 8289 47% 93% 64 322 13 96% 2% 64 8048 8356 49% 98% 68 67 1 99% 0% 68 8304 8368 50% 100%

Ah, yes, shooting shots is an important basketball skill. If you can keep your opponents under 40 percent eFG%, or if you can score over 60 percent, you're nearly guaranteed to win the game. While this is obvious, you kind of begin to understand why the NBA's coaches have started to ignore offensive rebounding in favor of getting back in transition defense: the shot seems to just be a bigger factor in winning.

And of course, this seems to also back up another NBA coaching tenet: "It's a make or miss league." Whatever you can do to get yourself good looks and make them seems to be worth doing.