Here are the facts: NFL fans are 60% male, mainly over 50, overwhelmingly white, and mostly make under $75,000. This means that the average NFL consumer is a working-class white male older than 50. Or in other words, a Trump voter:

Source: CNN exit poll, Nov. 2016

Now, if you think that Trump voters don’t like him tweeting and want him to stay out of issues like this, think again. In fact it’s what they like most about him. It’s a “he’s saying what we’re all thinking!” situation and don’t think for a moment that Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing. Just look at this poll:

Whether or not you think it was necessary for President Trump to opine about what’s happening in the NFL, it wouldn’t be the first time our president jumped head-first into a hot-button issue without having any reason to do so. And by “our president,” I mean Obama, not Trump. (Remember “acted stupidly” or “cool clock Ahmed?”) The real difference now is that our current president’s actions do not have the support of the media as a whole.

For the record, I really hate mixing politics with sports, and yes, President Trump didn’t need to get involved here. But what did the NFL expect with their provocations? I don’t blame Trump for reacting to all this- I blame the NFL itself. They call Trump commenting on the actions of their athletes “divisive,” but who are they fooling? The fact is that NFL players started the divisiveness by kneeling. They wanted the attention. They wanted to force fans and teammates to pick sides, and they’re the ones who infused politics into this, not Trump. If the NFL really cared about putting a stop to divisiveness, they would enforce their own official rules regarding behavior during the national anthem, which is on page A62–63 of the league’s game operations manual:

The National Anthem must be played prior to every NFL game, and all players must be on the sideline for the National Anthem. During the National Anthem, players on the field and bench area should stand at attention, face the flag, hold helmets in their left hand, and refrain from talking. The home team should ensure that the American flag is in good condition. It should be pointed out to players and coaches that we continue to be judged by the public in this area of respect for the flag and our country. Failure to be on the field by the start of the National Anthem may result in discipline, such as fines, suspensions, and/or the forfeiture of draft choice(s) for violations of the above, including first offenses.

The NFL also mentioned how Trump “disrespected” the league. That may well be true, but perhaps if they showed the same concern over the disrespect toward our flag, then Trump wouldn’t have entered the fray to begin with.

One final point before I get to the games: I’m all about free speech. However, freedom of speech does not mean that you have freedom from the consequences to your speech. Therefore criticizing someone for protesting during the national anthem is just as much a protected right as the right to protest itself. Now if I were a cynic, I would say the the NFL has a reason to encourage anthem protests, because the mostly positive coverage it receives from the media is a much better alternative than the usual stories about domestic violence or concussions. Luckily I’m not a cynic, so I wouldn’t even dare suggest this as a possibility! (And if you think this is bad, wait until the NBA season starts. Each team plays 82 games- not counting the pre-season, that’s 2,460 national anthems waiting to be protested this year! UH OH.) But thanks for indulging me in some free speech of my own, and if you didn’t like what I had to say, well you have a right to your opinion too.

So now it’s it’s time to talk about the games Sunday, and it occurred to me after the Steelers lost in OT that it seems like the teams doing most of the protesting were losing. I further wondered what would have happened if a bettor just blindly bet against the teams that protested the most. No handicapping- you didn’t even have to know a single player on a team! Just whatever team pissed you off more, you bet against. How would they have done? Let’s go over what this scenario would have looked like with some ground rules:

There must be one team with a much more demonstrable protest than the other, otherwise it would be considered a push and no action would be justified, since there would be no difference in what the teams did. The determination will be based solely off the broadcast coverage of the anthem, because if a protest occurred that wasn’t shown, than for all intensive purposes it didn’t happen. Discovering who protested after the game doesn’t matter, because obviously betting needs to be based off of what was shown to have happened before the game started. If there is a difference between the teams, a $110 bet is placed on the spread (to win $100 at the standard -110) and $100 bet on the moneyline (to straight up win) for a total of $210 bet on each team that showed more respect for the anthem, using the “closing Las Vegas lines” from vegasinsider.com, which would be the consensus line around Vegas as kickoff approached. To quote President Trump: It is kneeling that is “not acceptable.” Also inappropriate: Having a raised fist, or staying away from the anthem entirely. Locking arms is not considered inappropriate. So if one team only locked arms while another team kneeled, a bet would be placed on the “locked arms” team.

So without further ado, let’s see what would have happened if someone decided to handicap based on only the above criteria:

Early NFL Game: Ravens vs. Jaguars in London

Which team protested more? NO ACTION

Isn’t it interesting how networks show the national anthem now during every game? It used to be just reserved for the Super Bowl broadcast. NFL.com even has individual clips of just the anthem, which I will be linking to. It’s very convenient, and I’m sure they do it because they want to be extra patriotic! Yeah I can’t think of any other reason, so that must be it.

Regarding this game, the broadcast showed roughly the same amount of Ravens and Jaguars players kneeling, so there was no discernible difference between the teams. I did enjoy how they didn’t kneel for “God Save The Queen” though. Because that would have been rude!

1:00 est Game: Steelers at Bears

Which team protested more? STEELERS

If you watched the broadcast, you didn’t see one Bears player kneeling. The Steelers decided to sit out the anthem entirely. This one is a no-brainer. Bets would clearly be placed on the Bears at +245 ML for $100 and $110 dollars on the Bears +7 ATS. The result? Both bets win, resulting in a profit of $345.

1:00 est Game: Browns at Colts

Which team protested more? BROWNS

There were apparently Colts players that kneeled, but the broadcast never showed them. They did show about 20 Browns players kneeling, over and over again. It was a huge discrepancy. Bets would therefore be placed on the Colts at +100 ML and +1 ATS. The result? Both bets win, resulting in a profit of $200. Total winnings are now at $545.

1:00 est Game: Dolphins at Jets

Which team protested more? DOLPHINS

Again, the broadcast shows a discernible difference between the teams, with many prominent Dolphins kneeling, but no Jets. So bets would be placed on the Jets at +220 ML and +5.5 ATS and would both win, profiting $320 and bringing total winnings up to $775.

1:00 est Game: Broncos at Bills

Which team protested more? NO ACTION

Both teams had about an equal amount of players protesting, so there would be no way to justify betting one team over another.

1:00 est Game: Texans at Patriots

Which team protested more? PATRIOTS

About 20 Patriots kneeled. No Texans kneeled. There was a clear difference. So bets would be placed on the Texans at a whopping +800 ML and +13.5 ATS, and the Texans were THISCLOSE to winning both. Instead, it was a split/push, keeping the total winnings at $775.

1:00 est Game: Saints at Panthers

Which team protested more? SAINTS

The Saints had about 8 players sit on the bench during the national anthem in protest- and no Panthers player was shown to have sat or kneeled during the anthem, sung by an 8 year old boy. Stay classy, protesters! But here is the first time the trend was bucked, as the Saints won outright as a 5 1/2 point, +200 underdog. So that’s $210 dollars lost, bringing the profit down to $565.

1:00 est Game: Bucs at Vikings

Which team protested more? Bucs

Two prominent Buccaneers (Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson) knelt during the anthem. No Vikings players visibly kneeled. Therefore the clear bet is on Minnesota at -110 ML and +1 in points, winning both for a total of $190.91. That pushed the winnings right back up to $755.91

1:00 est Game: Falcons at Lions

Which team protested more? Lions

Here the Fox broadcast did a great job of not showing anyone kneeling, and by the looks of things they went out of their way to do so. However, on the opening overview you can see a distinct number of Lions players taking a knee:

Adding that the Lions’ national anthem singer brazenly kneeled after the song, and it’s clear that the more demonstrative team was the Lions. Therefore, we’ll take the Falcons at -165 ML and -3, both wins. $100 on the moneyline wins $60.61 plus the $100 with the points brings the total up to $936.52.

1:00 est Game: Giants at Eagles

Which team protested more? NO ACTION

Here we had different protests, but with the same amount of participation. A few Giants did kneel, and while no Eagles were shown to have, a couple Eagles raised their fist in the air instead. So it’s basically a push. I don’t really see much difference in how the two teams acted here.

4:00 est Game: Seahawks at Titans

Which team protested more? NO ACTION

Both teams decided not to go out on the field for the anthem, which means that there was no one to bet on over the other.

4:00 est Game: Bengals at Packers

Which team protested more? PACKERS

No Bengals player took a knee, but a handful of Packers did, including Marty Bennett of course. (That was inevitable.) So a bet on the Bengals +200 ML and +7 almost paid off big, but ended up being a split/push, so there was no change in profit at $936.52.

4:00 est Game: Chiefs at Chargers

Which team protested more? NO ACTION

Both teams made virtually equal displays of protest, so there was nothing to bet here.

4:00 est Game: Raiders at Redskins

Which team protested more? RAIDERS

Yes, there were a few kneelers on the Redskins, but that was nothing compared to the overt display the Raiders made, where nearly half the team sat down. So the two protests were night and day- therefore the bet here would be on the Redskins, who ended up +170 ML and +3.5, adding another $270 to the total.

So at the end of the day, if you went with this reasoning for betting you would have gone 8–1 ATS, 6–3 SU (Including hitting on 4 underdogs) and the profit would have totaled $1206.52, or roughly 6x what was bet per game. Does this mean that teams who devoted the most energy to protesting ended up hurting themselves in the game? Maybe. Or maybe most of these teams losing was just karma. Either way, it certainly was an interesting Sunday- and if we see a bunch of protests again next week, you can be sure I won’t miss the chance to bet against those teams, as their opponents will be likely taking a knee themselves- when they run out the clock for a victory.