A new poll out Sunday is perhaps the best news Kelly Ayotte has gotten in months.

Among 737 likely voters, New Hampshire’s Republican senator has an eight-percentage-point lead over her Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan, according to the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey.

The margin of error for the poll, which was taken September 6 to 8, was 3.6 percentage points.

The 52-percent-to-44-percent lead is the best poll result Ayotte has had in nationally recognized polls since June (an Emerson poll last week gave her a two-percentage-point lead, but it was an automated landline-only poll, which significantly favor Republicans). Poll results in July and August showed Hassan with a consistent lead over the incumbent senator.


Ayotte has labored throughout the summer to distance herself from Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular among the state’s independent voters, without alienating his supporters—as evidenced by her pledge to support, but not endorse, the GOP nominee.

In a CNN interview last month, Ayotte reiterated her plans to vote for Trump, but said she would “stand up to whomever is in the White House.”

According to an August 24 forecast by The New York Times‘s The Upshot, Hassan had a 64 percent chance of ousting Ayotte this fall. However, an updated forecast following Sunday’s poll gives Ayotte a 57 percent chance of keeping her seat.

The NBC poll Sunday also found Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Trump, the Republican nominee, locked in a tight race, despite polls earlier this summer indicating that the former secretary of state had a comfortable lead in the Granite State.

According to the poll, 39 percent of likely voters say they will vote for Clinton, compared to 37 percent who say they will vote for Trump. Libertarian candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson garnered 15 percent support. Green Party nominee Jill Stein received 3 percent support.

The relatively low support figures for the two major-party candidates reflect Clinton and Trump’s unpopularity among likely New Hampshire voters.


Fifty-nine percent said they viewed Clinton unfavorably, compared to just 38 percent who said they had a favorable view of the Democratic nominee. Trump’s numbers are slightly worse. The businessman’s unfavorable rating is 61 percent, while his favorable rating is 36 percent.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll-only forecast, as of Sunday, Clinton has a 70.1 percent chance of winning New Hampshire, which is in line with the 70 percent probability that she wins the national election.