This “Moneyball”-like approach to delegates, which takes a page from the 2008 campaign of Barack Obama, is about to be put into play. Mr. Paul may make only one stop in Florida before that state’s Jan. 31 primary and will instead focus his efforts after the South Carolina primary on Saturday on caucuses in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Nevada and other places where the cost of television and mail programs is less expensive and where election rules favor his strategy.

People close to the Paul campaign say it would cost them $9 million to $10 million to run an effective campaign in Florida, where only about 50 delegates are at stake. Florida is a closed primary, so independent voters important to Mr. Paul’s strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire cannot register just before the election. The state is also a winner-take-all contest, meaning only the victor walks away with delegates.

“There are four big caucuses coming up, with twice as many delegates as Florida, that will cost a third as much money, and we are focused on those,” one Paul official said.

With 28 delegates at stake, North Dakota also illustrates the strategy: the Paul campaign estimates that it will cost just $500,000 to run an effective campaign there, and delegates are awarded proportionately, so even if they do not finish first they could walk away with a decent allotment.

That strategic addition of delegates will help Mr. Paul, especially if Mitt Romney wins the next two primaries and other candidates bow out. Some Republicans say Mr. Paul could win second place in delegate counts, more than rivals who would no longer be able to raise money. Continuing fund-raising may not be the same concern for Mr. Paul, even if Mr. Romney gains momentum, given the nature of Mr. Paul’s donors.

So even as the campaign has a “path to victory” that it is committed to pursuing aggressively, said Jesse Benton, Mr. Paul’s national campaign chairman, it does not expect to compromise if it is a runner-up. “If there were any negotiations after another candidate secured the nomination, our first rule and guiding principle is that we would refuse to allow our movement and our ideas to be co-opted,” Mr. Benton said.

Mr. Paul says he is not thinking about a role at the convention outside of winning the nomination, and he plays down his interest in securing a prominent speaking slot, a potential role that worries many establishment Republicans.