Top story: Two-child policy sparks poverty warning

Good Monday morning to you, Graham Russell here bringing you the news to start your week.

A quarter of a million children could be forced into poverty under welfare cuts that come into effect on Thursday, analysis for the Guardian shows. Among a raft of changes, households that have a third or subsequent baby will no longer be able to claim child tax credits, meaning they could be up to £50,000 worse off over 18 years.

The changes, announced by George Osborne when chancellor, also wipe thousands of pounds off payments for bereaved families, a move described by one terminally ill man as “callous and brutal”. Alan, who is married with two children, said he was shocked that his family would lose out on tens of thousands of pounds in widowed parents’ allowance if he died after Wednesday. The government said the new bereavement support payment was tax-free and simpler.

Ministers have argued the two-child policy would act as a “behaviour change” incentive to persuade poorer families to have fewer children, although the government’s own impact assessment says there is no evidence to suggest this is likely.

Trump on North Korea – In the latest instalment of Donald Trump’s traditional pre-China visit tactics, the president has bluntly said the US will “solve North Korea” if Beijing is unwilling. Asked how he would achieve that, Trump said: “I’m not going to tell you.” Trump will host China’s Xi Jinping at his Florida resort on Thursday, where they are expected to discuss North Korea, China’s ambitions in the South China Sea and trade.

Gibraltar has become a point of contention in pre-Brexit sparring. Photograph: Jon Nazca/Reuters

Strait talking – It was all going so well, and then someone had to mention Gibraltar. And then Michael Howard mentioned going to war over it (while trying really hard not to mention the word “Falklands”). And thus EU diplomats had the perfect opportunity to vent any Brexit ire, saying they were taking seriously Spain’s claims to the Rock. “If Theresa May thinks the status of Gibraltar and its border with Spain is of little significance, the EU does not,” said one diplomat, adding that Spain had cultivated support among member states.



Meanwhile, European financial firms are lobbying for the chance to set up lucrative financial services hubs to steal the “low-hanging fruit” from Brexit London, a new report shows. The sectors most ripe for picking are clearing and asset management, which account for tens of thousands of jobs in the City.

Ecuador election – As you read this, nail-biting presidential elections are close to a result with left-wing ruling party candidate Lenin Moreno already celebrating victory over his rival. With just over 95% of votes counted he leads 51% to 49%. The result has implications beyond the country’s borders with the stay of Julian Assange in Ecuador’s London embassy dependent on the result. Moreno’s adversary, Guillermo Lasso, has said he would ask the Wikileaks founder to leave.

Croydon ‘hate crime’ arrests – Three more people have been arrested for attempted murder after an attack in which a teenage asylum seeker was beaten unconscious in the street. A total of nine people have now been arrested over the horrific assault on Friday in Croydon, south London. The Kurdish Iranian had been approached at a bus stop by a gang demanding to know where he was from. One witness said up to 20 people watched as the group then beat him.

A star is reborn – It turns out the ever youthful Doris Day has a bit of catching up to do, having to celebrate on Monday her 93rd, 94th and 95th birthdays. Day had long thought her birth year was 1924 but an Ohio birth certificate has rather unkindly added two more years to the life of Doris Mary Ann Kappelhoff.

“I’ve always said that age is just a number,” Day said in a statement on Sunday. “I have never paid much attention to birthdays, but it’s great to finally know how old I really am.”

Lunchtime read: the destruction of Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton the night she conceded. Photograph: Matt Rourke/AP

Susan Bordo assesses how the most qualified candidate ever to run for president lost the 2016 US election. In this book extract she explores the perfect storm of sexism, partisan politics and media madness, bookended by immensely powerful assaults: one by FBI director James Comey and the other by rival Bernie Sanders. She says millennial feminists saw Clinton simply as a “white lady”, not referring to her skin or racial politics but “her membership of the dominant class, all cleaned up and normalised, aligned with establishment power rather than the forces of resistance”.

Sport

Roger Federer’s resurgence shows no sign of slowing down after the Swiss beat old rival Rafael Nadal in the final of the Miami Open to add to the Australian Open and Indian Wells Masters titles he has won since his six-month injury lay-off. As Rory McIlroy prepares for a third attempt at completing a grand slam of major championships, he has admitted he “wouldn’t be fulfilled” without winning the Masters.

Defending was not the order of the day as Arsenal and Manchester City played out a wild 2-2 draw that provided a sharp reminder of why England’s top clubs are so far behind Europe’s elite, according to Barney Ronay. Down by the river, a day that began with a bomb scare ended in joy for Oxford supporters as their team beat Cambridge to win the 163rd Boat Race. And the year’s first women’s golf major ended in controversy after American Lexi Thompson, who held a three-stroke lead, was penalised for making an incorrect ball placement the day before – an offence pointed out by a TV viewer in an email to tournament officials. She went on to lose to South Korea’s So Yeon Ryu.

Business

Trading was muted on the Asian markets with modest gains in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Seoul. The benchmark ASX200 Australian index was down, although the property market continues to defy gravity. A new survey showed prices have risen nearly 20% in Sydney and 17.5% in Melbourne in the past 12 months. The soaring prices have prompted regulators to try to curb lending to investors who are seen as driving prices.

Meanwhile the pound is flat at $1.24 and €1.17.



The papers

The Sun’s splash is “Cops quiz ripper on 17 more attacks”, saying that Peter Sutcliffe, the Yorkshire Ripper, has been visited in prison by detectives investigating unsolved crimes.

The Financial Times front page on Monday.

The Mirror reports on a moving visit by student Lydia Wilkinson to the family home in Stourbridge where her mother and brother were stabbed to death and her father badly injured.

The Mail splashes with “Savages” – the story of the 17-year-old asylum seeker who was terribly beaten by a mob at a bus stop in south London. It compares the attack to that on Stephen Lawrence.

The FT’s interview with Donald Trump gives rise to its own splash headline: “If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will”. But that story is followed by the Times which uses the interview to have its own lead: “US is ready to confront North Korea, says Trump”. The Telegraph followed suit, with “Trump to ‘take on’ North Korea”.

And lastly the Express notes that a daily walk could save your life – “Experts tell 20 million lazy Brits to get more exercise”

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