Good morning, this is Helen Sullivan bringing you the main stories and must-reads on Monday 15 October.

Top stories

The Coalition’s political fortunes remain in the doldrums, with two new opinion polls indicating that Labor would comfortably win any election held today. As federal parliament resumes on Monday, both the Newspoll and the Ipsos polls published on Sunday night have Labor well in front of the government on the two-party-preferred measure, 53% to 47% and 55% to 45%.

There are two comforts for the government in the polls as it heads towards the Wentworth byelection on Saturday – Morrison is preferred as prime minister over Bill Shorten, and the Liberal party’s primary vote has rebounded in the Newspoll by four points since the leadership upheaval seven weeks ago. Morrison has warned voters in Sydney’s eastern suburbs against generating a boilover that would cost the government its one-seat majority in the lower house.

Saudi Arabia has threatened to retaliate against threats made over Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance, as the Riyadh stock market had its biggest fall in years, dropping by 7% at one point on Sunday. Donald Trump has threatened the US ally with “severe punishment” if it is confirmed that the journalist was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The French, German and UK foreign secretaries released a joint statement calling on the Saudi government to give a complete account of Khashoggi’s disappearance. But the Saudi government vowed to hit back against any action, suggesting it could cut oil supplies to drive up prices. “The kingdom affirms its total rejection of any threats and attempts to undermine it, whether through economic sanctions, political pressure or repeating false accusations,” it said.

A day of tense meetings and wild speculation in Brussels has left the Brexit deal still unresolved. After a meeting between EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK’s Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, Barnier briefed EU ambassadors, saying a deal had not yet been reached, and serious questions remained over the Irish border. Barnier posted on Twitter that “key issues” were unresolved despite “intense efforts”. The impasse over the Irish border is the most critical issue, with time running out for Theresa May to secure a deal and get it through parliament before the UK leaves the EU in March. Her chances still look bleak, writes Matthew D’Ancona.

Donald Trump suspects his defence secretary, Jim Mattis, might be a Democrat and “could be” heading for the exit. Trump was responding to a question from journalist Lesley Stahl, for an interview to air on CBS News’ 60 Minutes, about whether Mattis, seen as a restraining influence, was going to leave. Trump said: “It could be that he is. I think he’s sort of a Democrat, if you want to know the truth. But General Mattis is a good guy. We get along very well. He may leave. I mean, at some point, everybody leaves. Everybody. People leave. That’s Washington.”

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex touched down in Sydney early on Monday morning, for their visit to open the Invictus Games and spend a week seeing the sights. Their tour also takes in Fiji, Tonga and New Zealand – countries, like Australia, that still have the Queen as head of state. Will the visit be effective in crushing republican stirrings in Australia? A poll in February showed that 52% of Australians agreed that Australia should be a republic, with just 22% disagreeing. Then again, when the Duke and the Duchess of Cambridge visited in 2014, Prince George was dubbed “the republican-slayer” on breakfast television, as polling at the time showed support for Australia becoming a republic was at its lowest point in 35 years.

Sport

Saturday night’s men’s and women’s rugby league Test matches in Auckland – though poorly attended – proved a boon for the sport, writes Matt Cleary. Both Tests finished 26-24 and arrived at their denouement in different, thrilling ways.

An electrician, a bus driver, a cancer survivor and a billionaire shared a $6m purse as Redzel won the Everest race at Randwick.

Thinking time

It’s auction day at the Echuca saleyards, where horse-racing’s also-rans await their fate. Far from the glamour of Melbourne’s spring racing carnival, a row of thoroughbreds are waiting to be auctioned. A few weeks ago they were part of the $18bn Australian racing industry. Now, writes Calla Wahlquist, unless the bidding goes high enough, they could be headed to an abattoir.

Australians are making more films than ever before. So why is it so hard to find them? Australians want to see their own diverse stories writ large on screen, writes Steve Dow, but they get limited chances to do so because they are being sorely deprived early in the supply chain.

When Vanamali Hermans’ mother got very sick during his first year of university, she found herself suddenly tasked with caring for both parents. “My world was turned upside down,” she writes. Her story is typical of students who are also carers, often finding themselves alone, isolated and unable to stay enrolled.

Media roundup

Fairfax mastheads lead with the Ipsos newspoll, with the Sydney Morning Herald and the Age focused on the 74% of voters opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students and teachers. The Australian’s takeaway from its newspoll is that Liberal voters prefer Morrison over Turnbull on key issues. The Daily Telegraph says the University of Sydney’s student newspaper has been criticised by the NSW transport minister for “outright stupidity” after printing a how-to guide to fare evasion on public transport.

Coming up

Parliament sits again after a three-week break, with tax cuts and religious freedom expected to dominate.



A NSW parliamentary inquiry into the WestConnex motorway will examine the project’s impact, cost and governance structures.

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