A shakeup is in store for Toronto’s city council in the 2018 municipal election.

Some incumbents are running provincially rather than in the municipal election, three councillors have said they won’t run again, and several new seats are up for grabs. For a couple incumbents, it’s unclear if they’ll win again.

With 12 seats to watch, this election could result in a more diverse council. Right now, 86 per cent of councillors are Caucasian, despite more than half of Toronto identifying as a visible minority, according to 2016 census data. Of the current 44 councillors, only 14 are women.

NEW SEATS

Ward 16

New ward boundaries will leave centrist incumbents Ana Bailao and Cesar Palacio to fight for what will become one seat on Toronto’s next city council.. Both were chosen by Mayor John Tory to sit on his executive committee: Bailao is a deputy mayor and housing advocate, while Palacio is chair of the licensing and standards committee.

Region: Downtown

Population: 68,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 37 per cent

Largest visible minority: Black

Ward 20

This new ward was created by the splitting of the current Trinity-Spadina ward. Incumbent Councillor Joe Cressy is expected to run in the other half (which will be Ward 24), leaving the new Ward 20 open.

Region: Downtown

Population: 36,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 44 per cent

Largest visible minority: Chinese

Ward 21

The majority of this new ward was carved out of the Centre-Rosedale ward, which is currently represented by Councillor Lucy Troisi.

Region: Downtown

Population: 28,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 39 per cent

Largest visible minority: Black

Ward 25

This new ward used to be part of Ward 27. Councillor Kristyn Wong-Tam is expected to seek re-election in Ward 27, leaving an open race for Ward 25.

Region: Downtown

Population: 43,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 43 per cent

Largest visible minority: Chinese

Ward 29

A new seat will be filled in Ward 29, which includes roughly one half of what used to be the Willowdale ward. Incumbent Councillor David Shiner is expected to run in the other half.

Region: North York

Population: 57,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 69 per cent

Largest visible minority: Chinese

PAST PROMISES

Ward 22

Council appointed Lucy Troisi, a former parks manager, to fill Councillor Pam McConnell’s seat when McConnell died last summer. Troisi, a strong ally of Mayor John Tory, vowed not to run in the 2018 election (although nothing is legally preventing her from doing so).

Region: Downtown

Population: 41,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 53 per cent

Largest visible minority: Chinese

Ward 37

Following through on a previous campaign promise, Councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon won’t be seeking a third term. The fiscally conservative Beaches councillor committed to only serving two terms when she first ran in 2010, recognizing a need for “new terms and new leadership” as she wrote in an op-ed last October.

Region: Downtown

Population: 54,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 23 per cent

Largest visible minority: Chinese

Ward 47

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Council chose former city staffer Jim Hart to fill this seat after longtime Councillor Ron Moeser died in April 2017. Like fellow appointee Troisi, Hart is a Tory ally and promised to not run in the 2018 election.

Region: Scarborough

Population: 49,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 56 per cent

Largest visible minority: South Asian

NARROW VICTORY

Ward 14

Despite an endorsement from Tory and other conservative politicians, Councillor Christin Carmichael Greb won by the slimmest of margins in the 2014 election, beating out the runner-up by a mere percentage point. This term she’s maintained a low profile at city hall and resigned from two boards, raising speculation about whether she’ll secure enough votes to win again.

Region: North York

Population: 57,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 22 per cent

Largest visible minority: Filipino

PROVINCIAL CALLING

Ward 31

For the first time since 2003, former Councillor Shelley Carroll (she officially resigned earlier this month), a centre-leftist, will not run for city council. She is focusing her energy on the provincial race as the Liberal candidate in Don Valley North.

Region: North York

Population: 61,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 71 per cent

Largest visible minority: Chinese

Ward 32

Right-wing Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong will run as the PC candidate for Don Valley East in the provincial election, leaving his city council seat open for the first time since amalgamation.

Region: North York

Population: 67,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 51 per cent

Largest visible minority: South Asian

Ward 44

Centrist Councillor Chin Lee who was first elected in 2006, is leaving municipal politics to run for the Liberals in the Scarborough North riding.

Region: Scarborough

Population: 62,000

Residents who identify as a visible minority: 92 per cent

Largest visible minority: Chinese

Population data according to the 2016 StatsCan census

Correction - May 1, 2018: This article was edited from a previous version that stated councillors Ana Bailao and Cesar Palacio were running in Ward 18. In fact, they are running in Ward 16.

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