As Boris Johnson’s increasingly rogue government ramps up the threats and rhetoric, and death threats land at MPs’ doors, Britain’s worried political herbivores are frantically hunting for a Brexit outcome that can put a divided country back together before its frenzied carnivores rip it apart for good.

It is a worthy cause, but a deluded one. There is no Brexit outcome that will heal Britain’s divides. There is no deal that can be struck, no new vote that can be held, that will not inflame opinion on at least one side. A second referendum won’t do it. Nor will revocation. Nor will Norway Plus, nor Theresa May’s deal. No deal won’t cut it. Nothing can achieve it. It is impossible.

The main reason is the role of “elite cues” – the way that voters draw their opinions from trusted elite voices on their side. Nigel Farage, one such elite, will always benefit from whipping up anger over any Brexit short of no deal; the Lib Dems, while far less toxic, will benefit from exploiting Remainers’ resentment at the pitfalls of any Brexit at all.

Consider how Brexit has played out. Theresa May pledged to end free movement of people. As if by magic, pro-Brexit elites ceased their years of moaning about immigration and found other grounds for complaint. Johnson looks at excluding Great Britain from the sovereignty-limiting backstop – and so Farage claims any Brexit deal is no Brexit at all. Leave promised a deal would be easy; now, any deal is a sell-out. The transformation is remarkable, and manufactured entirely from the top.

UK news in pictures Show all 50 1 / 50 UK news in pictures UK news in pictures 18 September 2020 A model presents a creation during the Bora Aksu catwalk show at London Fashion Week 2020 Reuters UK news in pictures 17 September 2020 World kickboxing champion Carl Thomas during his attempt to run a marathon while pulling a plane at Elvington Airfield near York. The attempt is raising funds for Ollie's Army Battling Against Battens, an organisation campaigning to raise GBP 250,000 to fund a clinical trial aimed at saving the sight of children with CNL2 Batten Disease PA UK news in pictures 16 September 2020 Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner speaking during Prime Minister's Questions UK Parliament/AFP/Getty UK news in pictures 15 September 2020 People enjoying the autumn sunshine as they punt along the River Cam in Cambridge PA UK news in pictures 14 September 2020 Early morning light bathes the skyscrapers of the City of London, at the start of a week in which the UK is expected to bask in temperatures of more than 30 degrees PA UK news in pictures 13 September 2020 England celebrate after they dismissed Australia's Alex Carey to win the second ODI match of the series at Emirates Old Trafford, Manchester PA UK news in pictures 12 September 2020 Protesters outside BBC Broadcasting House in central London, as marches and rallies form across the country calling for a 15% pay rise for NHS workers and an increase in NHS funding PA UK news in pictures 11 September 2020 An empty migrant dinghy floats off the beach at St Margaret's Bay after the occupants landed from France in Dover Getty UK news in pictures 10 September 2020 A view of small boats thought to be used in migrant crossings across the Channel at a storage facility in Dover, Kent PA UK news in pictures 9 September 2020 EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier, left, arriving from the Eurostar with EU Ambassador to the UK, Portuguese diplomat Joao Vale de Almeida at St Pancras International railway station, London, for the latest round of the negotiations on a free trade deal between the EU and the UK PA UK news in pictures 8 September 2020 Dawn over Coquet Island, a small island off Amble on the Northumberland coast PA UK news in pictures 7 September 2020 A hovercraft arrives to Southsea, Hampshire from the Isle of Wight PA UK news in pictures 6 September 2020 Forensics officers near the scene of multiple reported stabbings in Birmingham Reuters UK news in pictures 5 September 2020 Anti-migrant protesters demonstrate in Dover against immigration and the journeys made by refugees crossing the Channel to Kent PA UK news in pictures 4 September 2020 Activists take part in a demonstration against the HS2 hi-speed rail line outside the Department of Transport AFP via Getty UK news in pictures 3 September 2020 Peter Baker, who plays Trigger in the musical version of Only Fools and Horses, sweeps the stage of the Theatre Royal Haymarket in London, after observing a 15 minute silence to show solidarity with those in the theatre industry that have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic PA UK news in pictures 2 September 2020 Kadie Lane, right, 11, and Brooke Howourth, 11, hug on their walk to Marden Bridge Middle School in Whitley Bay, Tyne and Wear, for their first day of term, as schools in England reopen to pupils following the coronavirus lockdown PA UK news in pictures 1 September 2020 Extinction Rebellion protesters sitting outside The Houses of Parliament in Westminster, London PA UK news in pictures 31 August Surfers at Long Sands Beach, Tynemouth PA UK news in pictures 30 August Black Lives Matter protesters march through Notting Hill in London in the first Million People March EPA UK news in pictures 29 August A protester reacts as she demonstrates against the lockdown and use of face masks, amid the coronavirus disease outbreak, outside Downing Street in London Reuters UK news in pictures 28 August Caribbean soca dancers display their costumes as they promote the first ever digital Notting Hill Carnival, following the cancellation of the normal Carnival festivities due to the continued spread of the coronavirus disease, in London Reuters UK news in pictures 27 August Father and son team Chris and Sam Milford from historic building conservation specialists WallWalkers begin restoration work on the spire of Norwich Cathedral, which stands at over 312ft high. The first known spire was completed in 1297 PA UK news in pictures 26 August Giant waves at Seaham in County Durham, as the bad weather continues PA UK news in pictures 25 August An assistant at the Wallace Monument cleans the case which houses the William Wallace sword in the Hall of Arms room at the monument near Stirling as they prepare to re-open PA UK news in pictures 24 August Restored World War Two landing craft LCT 7074 is transported from from the Naval Base in Portsmouth to its final resting place at the D-Day Story at Southsea PA UK news in pictures 23 August Jenny Nguyen and Tony Cao, from Vietnam, pose for wedding photos on Tower Bridge in London, as it remains closed to vehicles after it was stuck open on Saturday due to a "mechanical fault". The landmark's Twitter account confirmed only pedestrians and cyclists could use it on Sunday morning PA UK news in pictures 22 August England's Zak Crawley hit 267, joining the exclusive Double Hundred club, on day two of the Third Test match against Pakistan at the Ageas Bowl, Southampton PA UK news in pictures 21 August Harri Teale gathers lavender during the annual harvest on the Wolds Way Lavender farm near Malton in North Yorkshire PA UK news in pictures 20 August Parents and a student react after checking GCSE results at Ark Academy in London Reuters UK news in pictures 19 August Tate Modern workers hold a strike outside the gallery in London, to protest the institution's announcement that it would cut more than 300 jobs from its commercial arm, Tate Enterprises PA UK news in pictures 18 August Two rescued brown bear cubs, Mish (left) and Lucy, cool off in a pool after arriving at their new home with the wildlife conservation charity Wildwood Trust in Herne Bay, Kent. The orphaned pair, who have been living in a temporary home in Belgium since they were found abandoned and alone in a snowdrift in the Albanian mountains, will be acclimatised to their new life in the country before moving to a permanent home PA UK news in pictures 17 August A level students celebrate outside the Department for Education in London after it was confirmed that candidates in England will be given grades estimated by their teachers, rather than by an algorithm. The government U-turn comes just days after Education Secretary Gavin Williamson vowed there would be "no U-turn, no change. PA UK news in pictures 16 August Wasp players take a knee as Northampton Saints stand prior to kick-off in their Premiership match at Franklin's Gardens PA UK news in pictures 15 August Piper Colour Sergeant Lil Bahadur Gurung attends the VJ Day National Remembrance event, held at the National Memorial Arboretum in Staffordshire, Britain Reuters UK news in pictures 14 August People including students hold placards on Whitehall outside Downing Street as they protest against the downgrading of A-level results. The government faced criticism after education officials downgraded more than a third of pupils' final grades in a system devised after the coronavirus pandemic led to cancelled exams yes AFP via Getty UK news in pictures 13 August Benita Stipp (centre) and Mimi Ferguson (left) react as students at Norwich School receive their A-Level results PA UK news in pictures 12 August 2020 A train derailment near Stonehaven has left three people dead. Driver Brett McCullough, conductor Donald Dinnie, and a passenger were killed when the 6.38am Aberdeen to Glasgow Queen Street service crashed amid heavy rain and flooding BBC UK news in pictures 11 August 2020 A woman hydrates in the sun after open water swimming at the West Reservoir Centre in north London Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty UK news in pictures 10 August 2020 Prime Minister Boris Johnson takes part in an archery session as he visits Premier Education Summer Camp at Sacred Heart of Mary Girls' in Upminster Reuters UK news in pictures 9 August 2020 People cycle through Cambridge as the heatwave continues in Britain EPA UK news in pictures 8 August 2020 Healthcare workers take part in a protest in London over pay conditions in the NHS Getty UK news in pictures 7 August 2020 Emergency services make their way along the seafront on Bournemouth beach in Dorset on one of the hottest days of the year PA UK news in pictures 6 August 2020 Alison Murphy poses for a picture by husband Peter as she walks through a field of sunflowers in Altrincham, Cheshire PA UK news in pictures 5 August 2020 Pakistan's Abid Ali being bowled by England's Jofra Archer during day one of the First Test match at the Emirates Old Trafford, Manchester PA UK news in pictures 4 August 2020 The 'Timbuktu tumblers' from Kenya perform their balancing act on the Southsea waterfront as Zippos Circus reopens in Portsmouth Rex UK news in pictures 3 August 2020 Pelicans interact with a visitor in St James's Park in London PA UK news in pictures 2 August 2020 Lewis Hamilton drives with a puncture towards the finish line to win the Formula One British Grand Prix at Silverstone POOL/AFP via Getty UK news in pictures 1 August 2020 Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang celebrates with the trophy and teammates after winning the FA Cup, as play resumes behind closed doors following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease Pool via Reuters UK news in pictures 31 July 2020 People enjoy the sunny weather at a Bournemouth Beach Reuters

On the other side, Labour has been dragged to the position angry Remainers long demanded – a second referendum with Remain on the ballot. Right on cue, the Lib Dems switch to supporting outright revocation of Article 50. The sudden perceived inadequacy of the policy hard Remainers wanted is striking.

It is not that everyone is waiting to feel betrayed. But if half the voters on each side are impassioned, around a quarter of the voting public is liable to be inflamed by an unfavourable Brexit outcome. That’s a large minority to feel angry and alienated in an electorate – and it cuts across traditional party divides on either side, giving it a lasting destabilising power in British politics.

Consider the response to any of the Brexit outcomes. The pro-Brexit reaction to revocation is easy to imagine. Were Leave to lose a second referendum, its leaders would cry foul and whip up conspiracies over the conduct or terms of the vote. Remainer reaction to the chaos of no deal writes itself.

A hard Brexit deal – out of the customs union and single market – would lead to rapid economic losses. Every subsequent factory closure or round of job cuts would be blamed on the Brexit deal, leading to demands to rejoin the EU on one side – and for an even harder Brexit on the other.

This brings us to soft Brexit – “Norway Plus”, inside the single market and customs union, with ongoing free movement of people, but officially outside the EU. This represents the midpoint of public opinion today. But that midpoint is not where most people stand – polarisation finds few people wanting compromise.

Polling shows soft Brexit to be the least inflammatory outcome – but that is because it hasn’t been on the table since May set her red lines. As a result, Farage and others focused their fire elsewhere. Now Labour is swinging behind free movement, Leave elites are ferociously attacking it. It will not be long before Norway Plus brings a furious response from Brexiters.

This is the problem with Labour’s referendum proposal. Putting Remain against Norway Plus in a vote is technically Remain vs Leave – but Leavers aren’t going to buy it. No matter what Remainers say, Leave voters will just see the continuation of what they oppose – immigration and Brussels laws.

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This is also why the chances of Brexit not happening are currently underpriced. If an election results in an anti-Brexit Commons majority, the post-election government would likely negotiate such a soft Brexit deal that Leave voters would boycott the subsequent referendum, resulting in a Remain win by default that Leavers would simply regard as illegitimate – including if they got back in power.

There are no magic bullet Brexit outcomes that will solve Britain’s divisions. Increased investment in economically struggling areas can help; increased socioeconomic rights and provision will do more to “take back control” than complex constitutional changes.

Politicians should not be bounced into any lasting decision based on the mythical promise that “getting Brexit done” will bring things back to normal. It won’t, especially as leaving the EU is the start of a long and painful process, not the end. The focus should be on the best outcome for the country, both now and in the future, and one that can carry the broadest legitimacy possible.

What does that mean in practice? I do not pretend to have the answer. But one option – should the EU indulge the UK with sufficient time to pull it off – could be to hold a second referendum where the Leave option is created by a citizens’ assembly made up of Leave voters, as a way of undercutting the power of elite cues and giving Leavers some ownership of the process. But safeguards would be needed to protect, for example, the rights of existing migrants and the requirements of the Good Friday Agreement. And the referendum campaign itself may, once again, be a brutally divisive affair.

How did we get here? Forty years of rising regional inequality; decades of media and political hysteria against foreigners and immigrants; ten years of savage austerity; political cultures that reward demonisation, tribalism and sociopathy; and a false sense of national invincibility that keeps crashing into reality.