One might forgive Manitobans if they seem slightly smug these days.

With job losses in Ontario, falling house prices in Vancouver and disappointing retail sales across the country, Manitoba seems to be bucking the recession with its "steady-as-she-goes" incremental growth.

The province's unemployment rate in February was at 4.8 per cent -- three percentage points below the national numbers and the second-lowest rate in the country, surpassed only by Saskatchewan.

While retail sales fell more than five per cent across Canada in December, they only dropped half a percentage point in Manitoba. And as shops close in other parts of the country, Manitoba is actually seeing new stores move in; from its first sprawling Ikea store which will anchor a $400-million retail development to the opening of its first Sephora beauty store.

The housing market has dipped slightly, but about one-third of Winnipeg's homes are still selling for at or above asking price.

Because of its "even keel" economy, the Conference Board of Canada recently found Manitoba is one of only four provinces expected to experience economic growth this year. The "momentum" generated in the past few years will carry it forward into 2010, the board said.

That momentum hasn't been anywhere as dizzying as it has in other provinces. But many say that's why Manitoba is poised to weather this recession better than most -- it never climbed to the same heights and therefore doesn't have as far to fall.

"We feel we're holding our own and steady as she goes," said Premier Gary Doer, whose NDP government is tabling its budget March 25.

"We don't like to have our economy lurch forward and lurch backward. We want to keep going in a steady way. Manitoba relies more on what's in our heads -- our brains -- than we rely on what's in the ground."

The province isn't as dependent on the auto sector and its manufacturers are faring better than those in neighbouring Ontario, said Marie-Christine Bernard with the Conference Board of Canada.

Major hydro construction projects are going ahead and there is a backlog of orders in the aerospace and transit industries, which should keep Manitoba humming for the coming year, she said.

"The domestic economy in Manitoba is in pretty good shape," said Bernard, associate director of provincial economic trends at the Conference Board of Canada. "We're forecasting some job growth for 2009, contrary to most of the provinces, where they will see job losses."

Since Manitobans seem to be holding on to their jobs, they also haven't cut down as heavily on their spending. That makes the province an attractive place for retailers looking to expand, said Lanny McInnes with the Retail Council of Canada.

"While we don't have the peaks that other provinces may have -- like Saskatchewan and Alberta -- we also don't have the correspondent valleys when other provinces are running into difficulty," he said.

"Manitobans are still going to be shopping so (retailers) look at the province in times like this as an area where they can grow their business."

The province has also seen an influx of people moving to Manitoba, keeping the demand for housing steady.

Jeff Powell, senior market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing, said Manitoba never saw the same speculative buying as other provinces, which protected it from the drop other cities are now experiencing. As employment remains steady, so too does the demand for housing, he said.

"The forecast for prices in Manitoba is really quite stable," he said.

But despite the relatively sunny forecasts, Doer said Manitoba can't afford to get comfortable.

The world is in a recession and Manitoba isn't immune, he said.

"There are challenges because Manitoba is in the centre of the country. We trade east of us, west of us, south of us and north of us through the port of Churchill," Doer said.

"Canada is relatively better off than the United States. Manitoba and Saskatchewan are doing relatively better than other provinces. But it's still lower than it was a year ago."