Ajit Tripathi is an EMEA partner at Consensys Enterprise, and former director of Fintech and digital banking at PwC, where he co-founded his blockchain and smart contract practice in R & D. U.

The following article is an exclusive contribution to the CoinDesk 2017 edition.

I came to trust Vitalik Buterin to ask the most important questions in blockchain.

The founder of the Ethereum did it again last month when he asked in a tweet: "Okay, crypto is now worth $ 525 billion, but how much of that evaluation did we really win?

We can answer Vitalik's question using the proven method of discounted cash flow.

This time is no different

During the dot-com boom of the 1990s, evaluation by counting eyeballs and various other parts of the body was endemic.

During the real estate boom, valuation was what you wanted by adjusting project default rates, prepayment rates, volatility and correlation.

During the current crypto-boom, science fiction, such as network-based valuation, technical analysis, the Metcalfe law and the Moon-based assessment, is blossomed.

Unfortunately, when bubbles burst, discounted cash flows come back with vengeance.

So while we all believe that blockchain technology can solve all our problems, including evaluation problems, let's assume that this time is not different and that someday everyone in crypto will have to generate fiat cash flow.

The less likely you get the money you think you will get in the future, the higher the discount rate. It's a big mess when it comes to anything but state bonds, which academic orthodoxy considers to be risk-free (not to mention the huge national debt).

Asset pricing worsens when commodities and currencies are involved and we need to start monitoring the costs and benefits of HODLING all your digital GODL or any "implicit interest rate" that you could win on your GODL. This net profit forecast for the HODLer is essentially your cash flow forecast.

So, as Vitalik pointed out, the crypto-market is worth $ 525 billion, but what have we done that is worth it in the future?

The question is what we have solved, improved, or provided that will make individuals, businesses, or governments more productive, more efficient, or more beneficial to their lives and relationships.

At a high level we can ask:

1. What features (eg Truffle), products (eg UPort) or platforms (eg Digital Trade Chain) have we built that a consumer uses or benefits from? No, I do not mean linking, Telegram discussion channels, or proofs of concept.

2. What business solutions have been put online and how many new revenue or efficiencies have they created? This includes the work that ConsenSys and IBM are doing in Dubai, the trade finance platforms by IBM and R3, MUFGCoin and so on.

3. How far have we improved infrastructure and stacking in terms of scalability, privacy, confidentiality and other good things? Quorum, zcash, Fabric, Corda, Coco – everything counts.

4. What business models and technologies were created in 2017? The ERC-20 and CryptoKitties tokens are included. Crypto Stablecoin exchanges are excluded.

5. For each of them, what are the chances of seeing the invention used by a person or a real company over time? In the absence of any information, assume 50% for each.

Incremental value added in 2017

It is simply impossible that we would have earned $ 500 billion in value-added for consumers last year, which we did not have in 2016 and all we had then was PoC and some promising ideas.

No matter how you make your list, there simply was not enough useful kit in the production of consumers or businesses last year.

Bitcoin scraped at Segwit and all kinds of forks. A very large set of tools and solutions of etéum was released; Qurum, Corda and Tissue have become useful in the business ecosystem, and a very small number of consortia have embarked on technical production.

We bypassed VCs and allowed good, bad and ugly blockchain startups to finance their parade.

When we calculate the value of the ERC tokens and CryptoKitties, we will subtract the future disasters of the future Amazons and will probably get a much smaller number than the $ 3 billion that was raised last year in the ICOs .

Then, we will thank Vitalik that all this money that could have been invested in a largely useless room has become useful technology.

Why I Bet on Ethereum

Yes, there will be a lot more value created with blockchain in 2018 and even more the year after, but there is so much future in the prices today – and it will take maybe exchange while we learn more.

I suspect that every year, half of the OIC-funded startups of the previous year will die – if they do so for so long.

Still, there will be the next Amazon or Google or Netflix there. If you know how to choose, go for it. I do not do it.

That's why I'm making a big bet of time on Ethereum rather than a money bet in crypto.

Ethereum has picked up speed, adopted developers and a team ready to tackle technical limits, even at the price of the price of the ether.

There are people who are serious about the Web 3.0 vision and who are solving real consumer and business problems.

Does this mean $ 7, $ 70 or $ 700 billion for the ether? I can not tell. If the ether will go to the moon in 2025 depends if the ethereum is still the public blockchain in widespread use or if someone finds something much better, and if ethereum refused to evolve as other crypto networks have.

Does this mean that you should buy ether today? I can not and I do not offer investment advice.

Should we start learning to use ethereum to build solutions and decentralized businesses? Definitely – my son is learning to build with ethereum and he is 14 years old. He may very well just know how to build solutions for others.

BUIDL, not HODL

When we are dead, it is not what we HODL or SODL matters. That's what we BUIDL

So I advise everyone to think about this and BUIDL. Those who BUIDL seem to like it and seem happier than the rest of us.

Moreover, since BUIDLers do not have the time to trade or buy questionable parts, they also have a much lower chance of getting REKT.

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Disclaimer: This article should not be considered as investment advice and is not intended to do so. Please conduct your own thorough research before investing in a cryptocurrency.