Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Philadelphia Phillies farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists

NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)

AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)

NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)

NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)

AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Lakewood HS (CA) Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 180 Bat/Throw L/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/55 40/45 30/40 50/50 50/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Slashed .244/.328/.318 with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Scouting Report

Crawford’s lackluster statistical output at Triple-A in 2016 is far less problematic when you accept that his 2015 and 2016 stints at Double-A were embellished by the same hitting environment that has given us Angry Philly Sports Radio hype for Darin Ruf and Matt Rizzotti. I’ve been to Reading a lot and can’t explain what’s going on there; batted balls just keep going until they’re over the wall. This is important to consider throughout the duration of this piece as we have a few hitters on this list who had huge years there at some point, and their statistical output requires context.

While Crawford’s 2016 looked disappointing on paper, scouts saw the same collection of tools here as they always have. Namely, future plus or better defense at shortstop, top of the scale athleticism and a natural ability to control the strike zone. He does not have exceptional bat speed or power, is an average runner and is continuously searching for in-the-box footwork that works for him. While he will, on occasion, drop the bat head and golf out a ball down and in, there’s very little power here and some think Crawford was overswinging at times in 2016 to try to create more.

Crawford’s on-field demeanor bothered some scouts who thought he struggled to deal with failure, but please note that Crawford was a 21-year-old at Triple-A who had enjoyed nothing but success throughout his entire minor-league career (and probably throughout his entire baseball playing existence) leading up to last year. Evaluators are anxious to see how he responds, though.

A great defensive shortstop whose approach might allow him to hit at the top of a lineup one day despite modest offensive tools is very valuable. I don’t think Crawford will ever hit more than 8-12 home runs at peak, but I could see .270/.360/.390 with terrific defense. That’s a 3-WAR player and likely top-10 shortstop in all of baseball, even during the Shortstop Age of Enlightenment. There’s still a good amount of work needed to be done for Crawford to attain that ceiling, but he’s already at Triple-A and, if you buy into the glove, then the probability of him not getting to the bigs and providing some form of value is relatively low.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 15.6 WAR

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from La Costa Canyon HS (CA) Age 19 Height 6’2 Weight 185 Bat/Throw L/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/70 40/50 20/40 60/55 40/55 50/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

None.

Scouting Report

The Phillies held the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft and were faced with two situational dilemmas. First, there wasn’t a clear transcendent superstar available atop the draft. Second, in situations without an obvious 1-1 candidate, teams like to find ways to reallocate the signing bonus associated with that first pick to latter picks in order to make the most out of their entire class. But teams like Atlanta, Cincinnati and San Diego, who all had multiple picks between the Phillies’ first and second selections, made Philly’s pursuit of this strategy difficult. Moniak signed for $6 million, which is $3 million under slot, and allowed the Phillies to pursue expensive, falling, prep talent like Blake Rutherford, Joey Wentz or Kevin Gowdy with their next pick.

That’s not to say Moniak isn’t a great prospect. I saw him six times in high school and the consistency with which he hit was incredible. I have as aggressive a grade on his bat as I’ve ever had for a high-school prospect. His swing, graceful and comfortable and simple yet still impactful, is geared for lots of all-fields contact. Moniak has terrific hand-eye coordination, moves the bat around the hitting zone and his bat-to-ball output is going to be aided by his speed. A plus runner, Moniak projects to stay in center field, where he has the requisite range and instincts to be a plus defender at peak.

There are questions about the kind of power Moniak, who is slight of build, is going to have at peak. He has thin forearms, a flat, narrow lower half and, while I do think there’s some room for more strength simply through physical maturation, he’s unlikely to ever hit 18-plus home runs. At the very least, Moniak will need to become strong enough that he’s somewhat of a singular threat to opposing upper-level pitchers so they don’t attack him with impunity, force him to put an inordinate amount of balls in play and limit his ability to reach base. I think it’s likely he gets to that point.

A good defensive center fielder with Moniak’s aptitude for contact is a very valuable and, considering how consistently Moniak hit against elite competition in high school and the stability of his defensive profile, he’s a relatively low risk prospect for a high schooler entering his first full pro season.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.0 WAR

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2009 from Colombia Age 24 Height 6’2 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 70/70 40/50 50/50 50/55 70/70

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Slashed .285/.325/.458 at Double-A Reading.

Scouting Report

Alfaro is arguably the most physically gifted catching prospect of this century. A physical specimen (Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is listed at 6-foot-2, 217, for context) with huge raw power, abnormal speed for a catcher and a howitzer attached to his right shoulder, Alfaro’s tools have always played down in games due to a rash approach at the plate and a lack of technical finesse required to serve as an effective defensive catcher. As it often goes with backstops, such intricacies have begun to develop later than they usually do for prospects at other positions. Alfaro turned 23 in June of last year and repeated Double-A (and he spent a month there in 2014, too) but began to iron out some of his maladies on defense. His receiving and ball-blocking have both improved to the point where he’s now a competent major-league defensive catcher who occasionally does something amazing like pop around 1.8 on throws to second base. He projects as an above-average defender with a 70 arm.

Offensively, Alfaro has rather serious swing-and-miss issues caused in part by a bat path that isn’t in the hitting zone for very long. Those issues are compounded by an epicurean approach and sometimes awkward use of his lower half that negatively impacts his timing. He does have plus-plus bat speed and raw power, and his swing allows it to play to the right/center gap when he makes contact. Even with limited at-bats, Alfaro should muscle out 15-18 homers annually just on pure strength and bat speed, but there’s some risk associated with his overall offensive profile because he’s so strikeout prone.

The power is going to need to be a separator for Alfaro, whose strikeout and walk rates are both likely to be comfortably below average, even for a catcher. I think the floor here is a slash line quite similar to what Cameron Rupp did last year but with better defense and some value created on the bases. And, of course, there’s a superstar ceiling here if Alfaro can somehow find a way to further mine his incredible physical talent.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.0 WAR

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic Age 18 Height 5’10 Weight 160 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command 60/60 45/50 45/50 45/50 50/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Surrendered just three earned runs in 54 GCL innings.

Scouting Report

Beat writer Matt Gelb wrote this week about how the Phillies stumbled upon Sanchez at another prospect’s workout. The Phillies have something here, but it’s hard to say what it is because Sanchez has an atypical skillset and build.

Sixto is short but not small at a listed six feet on the Phillies instructional league roster but with broad, tapered shoulders and a big, high butt and thighs. His arms are long for someone this size, which helps create good extension on a fastball that sits 94-97 and will touch 98, 99. Such a fastball requires tremendous arm acceleration and Sanchez’s delivery does feature some effort, but he still has impressive fastball command. It’s already average, which is especially impressive for an arm this young that throws this hard and with so little pitching experience.

Sanchez was an infielder until he turned 16, and this is where projecting Sixto becomes complicated and abstract. None of his secondary pitches are particularly impressive right now. He has a fringey curveball that has promising shape but currently lacks depth; his changeup is inconsistent due to a tendency to overthrow it, but it flashes above average. I also have reports of him throwing a cutter/slider in the 90-92 range over his last few starts, a pitch that was already occasionally average, but the Phillies have told me he just accidentally cuts his fastball at times. Also, the Phillies as an org have generally had their young arms avoid cutters and splitters for fear of injury.

When viewed in a vacuum, this collection of secondary offerings is relatively unimpressive, especially if you’re willing to omit the slider/cutter from your future projections (I have it on the tool table), but consider that Sanchez just turned 18 in the middle of last season and only returned to pitching at age 16. I think it’s fairly conservative to project the change and curve to average which, with a 60 fastball and 60 future command, would make for a solid-average big-league starter. If the slider’s included in that, now suddenly we’re talking about plus command of four average or better pitches. This is an excellent pitching prospect, and I’m relatively unconcerned about his size because the arm slot generates fastball plane and the body is sturdy and strong. He’s a potential mid-rotation arm for me.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.0 WAR

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2011 from Port St. Joe HS (FL) Age 24 Height 5’10 Weight 170 Bat/Throw B/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/55 45/45 30/30 80/80 50/60 50/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Slashed .263/.373/.333 in 69 big-league plate appearances.

Scouting Report

Let’s review Quinn’s medical history before we talk about his tools. He was hit by a pitch and broke his wrist in 2013, he tore his Achilles tendon that offseason and missed the beginning of 2014, he suffered a hip flexor tear in 2015 and dealt with hamstring and oblique issues in 2016. Quinn is slightly built and, even though he arguably has the skills for everyday duty in center field, most scouts consider him an extra outfielder, if only because they’re skeptical about his body holding up to a full season’s workload.

Despite the injuries he’s sustained, many to his lower body, Quinn is a no-doubt 80 runner. I’ve gotten him sub-3.9 from home to first several times and he explodes out of the batter’s box, reaching top speed quickly and threatening procrastinating infielders.

Quinn is small but he’s physical enough to compete with the bat in the big leagues. He has above-average bat speed, though it comes at the expense of effort, and a viable gap-to-gap approach as a right-handed hitter. Quinn is pull-heavy from the left side, hitting lots of grounders and line drives, and can sometimes sell out for power that simply isn’t there. On a dead-pull, max-effort swing he has fringe raw power, but in games it’s 30 pop.

Quinn’s speed allows him to play center field, and he’s average there now with a chance to be plus as he continues to get reps after moving off the infield in the middle of 2014. But, if Odubel Herrera’s contract extension is any indication, big-league reps in center are going to be hard for Quinn to come by and 30 game power doesn’t play in a corner. Quinn has high-end makeup and has already been working out in Clearwater for several weeks. He’s a high-probability major-league contributor, likely as a fourth outfielder or low-end regular.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.2 WAR

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic Age 20 Height 6’1 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command 55/55 50/60 45/55 30/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

None. A raw arm in short-season ball.

Scouting Report

Medina’s numbers in short-season ball are relatively underwhelming, but developmental focus has been placed on fastball command for now and not on missing bats. Additionally, Medina’s repertoire is evolving. Last year, Medina’s primary breaking ball was a curveball in the 75-81 mph range. It showed promising spin but was being delivered from a noticeably more vertical arm slot. Focus has shifted to a slider, and Medina’s proclivity for spin has been transitive. The slider flashes plus with late, angry bite and could mature there. It plays well off of his fastball, which sits 91-95 and will bump 96 with movement. Both the slider and fastball bore in at the same angle before breaking in opposite directions, and once (if) Medina becomes more adept at locating them, they’re going to give hitters fits.

Medina also has some feel for a low-80s changeup, which has promising tumble and velocity separation. He has 30 command right now, and significant progress in this area is the most important aspect of Medina’s development. He looks more athletic than he is, sporting an ideal frame not just for baseball players but for humans in general, and the arm action is similarly beautiful. Nevertheless, Medina has trouble timing the components of his delivery and locating where he wants. If he ever develops average or better command, then he’s going to be a mid-rotation starter and I think that’s attainable. Medina has a chance for three plus pitches if you want to project a little more heavily on the changeup than I have, and I think he has the highest upside of all the arms in this system; he’s just four years away from the big leagues.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.6 WAR

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic Age 22 Height 6’0 Weight 155 Bat/Throw L/L Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command 55/55 45/50 50/55 45/50 45/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 19% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate at High-A.

Scouting Report

What scouts think of Garcia is largely colored by what time of year they saw him. If you caught Garcia early in the year in A-ball, you saw him throwing 88-91, maybe touching 93, and flashing an above-average curveball. If you saw Garcia’s final start of the year, a Double-A playoff appearance, he was up to 97, sitting 92-94 with command of a four-pitch mix.

Garcia added velocity as the year went along and was regularly touching 94-95 by midsummer. His two breaking balls, a loopy but deep curveball in the low-70s and a vertically oriented slider, run together right now but the latter is fairly new. Garcia has a fringey changeup, and his command of it lags behind his fastball/curveball command, but he repeats his fastball arm speed and it projects to average.

Garcia has also shown an ability to locate his curveball to the back foot of left-handed hitters (which will give him another viable weapon against them), he understands sequencing, can miss bats up above the strike zone with his fastball, and he pitches with swagger and confidence, stomping around the mound like he owns it when he blows hitters away. The Phillies added him to the 40 man to protect him from Rule 5 consideration.

If you think Garcia retains his newfound velocity, then it’s fairly easy to envision him becoming a good No. 4 starter; if not, he’s a back-end arm. Even though none of the secondaries undoubtedly project to plus on their own (I do have a scout who has a future 6 on the curveball), Garcia’s advanced sequencing and solid command could allow them to play up. I got Martin Perez and Jaime Garcia comps on Garcia during the list-making process. Both those guys are No. 4 or 5 starters, and I think that’s ultimately where Elniery ends up. He’ll likely begin 2017 in Reading and, if the Phillies need someone to make a big-league spot start on Garcia’s day to pitch, he could debut in the majors this year.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.2 WAR

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic Age 22 Height 6’6 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 60/60 55/60 30/40 30/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Struck out 123 in 105 innings after skipping a start in late April.

Scouting Report

Kilome is a prototypical right-handed pitching prospect. He’s big, throws hard (92-97) with downhill plane, has curveball feel and a relatively low-effort delivery. He’s a fringey athlete and has difficulty repeating that delivery, which has led to well below-average control and inconsistent secondary offerings. Scouts with whom I spoke think there’s significant reliever risk here, as Kilome’s changeup is raw for his age (he pitched most of last year at age 21, which is a little old for the SALLY League), as is the command. Kilome also began messing with his curveball grip last year, and the early results were positive. (It was more of an average pitch early in the season but was often flashing plus late in the summer.)

Kilome needs both his changeup and control to progress rather appreciably. Somewhere in the multiverse exists a reality where both take significant steps forward and allow him to become a No. 3 starter. More realistically, though, you hope one of them makes significant progress, which would make him more of a solid No. 4. I have the command projected quite heavily because, while reports on Kilome’s athleticism aren’t exactly glowing, he’s a large young man and strike-throwing ability often comes later for bodies like this. The changeup feel is far enough behind at this point that projecting it as a true bat-missing entity is probably unwise, but if the command comes then a healthy dose of backfoot curveballs to lefties will help him mitigate platoon issues and remain a starter.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.5 WAR

Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from Sacramento St Age 24 Height 6’4 Weight 225 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/50 60/60 40/50 30/30 40/45 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 1.032 OPS at home, .853 on road.

Scouting Report

Hoskins has plus raw pull power and puts the ball in the air regularly, both because his swing is geared for in-air contact and because he works himself into counts where he can seek and destroy fastballs. He has good hitter’s timing and, while he’s sometimes vulnerable on the outer half, he’s shown an ability to poke balls the other way, and he’s strong enough to do some damage to right field as well.

Not all scouts are enamored with Hoskins’ hit/power combo, which is solid without context but uninspiring at first base. Nor are scouts confident that Hoskins is going to be able to deal with major-league breaking balls. Some are concerned about his general stiffness and fringe athleticism. He’s a below-average defender at first base. Hoskins’ track record of hitting is strong enough that I think he could be a 50-hit, 50-game-power first baseman who gets on base at a .350 clip. That’s an everyday player, albeit a fringe one.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.6 WAR

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2012 from Chaparral HS (AZ) Age 23 Height 6’6 Weight 235 Bat/Throw L/L Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 70/70 50/60 40/30 40/45 45/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 40 homers and 21 stolen bases (on just 22 attempts). Slugged .744 at home, .441 on the road.

Scouting Report

Cozens is a mountainous, hulking man built for hitting balls further than the eye can see. Fear not that Cozens’ power was embellished by Reading: it’s real. (It’s 70 raw. Cozens was hitting balls out of Petco at the Futures Game.) The scouting community is just uncertain about his ability to tap into it consistently in the big leagues.

Hitters Cozens’ size have holes in the swing, almost invariably. This, combined with a tendency to drift heavily onto his front foot and lose all balance against good offspeed stuff, are what I think are the two primary issues with his bat-to-ball abilities. There are statistical red flags, as well. Cozens’ strikeout rate was a well-fed 32% in 2016 and, even if you believe his approach has evolved and the 10% walk rate he posted was the result of substantive change (as some scouts to whom I spoke believe) and is here to stay, that batted-ball/on-base profile is going to be problematic, especially when big-league teams put that shift on.

Consider Chris Carter, who remained unemployed until yesterday despite ripping out 41 homers last year with walk and K rates nearly identical to what Cozens posted last year with Reading. I’m not trying to comp the two directly (Cozens is a better runner underway than Carter is, he enjoys a more favorable platoon split as a left-handed hitter), but if you think there’s a chance Cozens has to move to first base as he ages (and there are scouts who do, Cozens is a 40 defender in right field and his body, while well composed, is maxed out), then even the historic season he posted at Reading may not be enough to create significant annual big-league value.

I’m encouraged by the adjustments I’ve seen Cozens make since his pro debut in 2012. Since then, he’s added loft to his swing, which has allowed his power to start playing in games. He’s also altered his stride (he actually has one now whereas, when I saw him at Williamsport years ago, he just kind of stood there and swung) and has kept what has always been a huge body in check. If/when he needs to make adjustments again (and I think he will in 2017, where he’s poised to face a lot of junk-balling International League pitching), it’s encouraging to know Cozens has done it before. This isn’t a certain middle-of-the-order bat for me yet. I have Cozens projected as the larger half of an outfield corner platoon for now, but I think he has a shot to be an average everyday player.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 7.7 WAR

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Santa Barbara HS (CA) Age 19 Height 6’4 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 50/60 50/60 40/50 45/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

None.

Scouting Report

Gowdy was one of the players Philadelphia was targeting with the 42nd overall pick in last year’s draft. Teams ahead of them made room to get deals done with Blake Rutherford and Joey Wentz, leaving Gowdy (a late-first-round talent) to be had for top-10 money. He’s a well-built, physically projectable pitcher whose stuff fluctuated over the course of his senior spring. I saw Gowdy’s worst spring start on a blustery 50 degree day in Arizona during which he was 86-91 with good command an average curveball that, just on shape, looks like a slider.

But I’ve also seen Gowdy bump 94 and, while I’m not in love with the tall-and-fall delivery, he has the sort of physical makeup that allows for projection on the velocity, as well, and not just retention. His curveball flashes above average and you could argue his consistent glove-side command on the pitch will allow the pitch to play up as plus. His changeup projects to average for me, and its effectiveness is built upon a foundation of deception more than movement. He projects as a No. 4 starter, and I think Gowdy is polished enough that he could move quickly, which mitigates some of the risk associated with an arm this young.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Arizona Age 23 Height 5’10 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/55 40/45 30/30 70/70 55/60 45/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 8% walk rate, 13% strikeout rate at High-A in 2016.

Scouting Report

Kingery was a walk-on at Arizona. After watching him for a few seasons at U of A, I had a late-first-round grade on him on draft day. Kingery has physical traits indicative of a future plus hit tool, but he has some mechanical issues to tighten up and needs to improve his selectivity. His bat is quick and he has solid eye-hand, but he doesn’t consistently stride closed and he’s pull-heavy as a result. This also creates some plate-coverage issues. Kingery has some trouble getting to velo down and in, so his propensity to stride open might be a response to pitchers working him inside regularly. He showed an ability to pull his hands in and make solid contact with inside pitches at U of A, but I didn’t see it as much in the Fall League.

Kingery lacks power (40 raw, below that in games right now) and an all-fields approach to contact might behoove him, as he just doesn’t have the kind of power needed to make an impact as a pull-only hitter. That’s going to require some adjustment. While the offensive profile isn’t exactly sexy, Kingery is a 70 runner and future plus defender at second base. His range at second is spectacular and his hands, actions, and arm are all fine.

Kingery’s walk and strikeout rates went haywire upon his promotion to Double-A, and some argue this is a result of upper-level pitching recognizing his lack of power and exploiting it. Others consider it a result of mental and physical fatigue, something with which Kingery dealt in 2015 after signing. He was clearly tired in the AFL but, if he’s going to be an fringe to average everyday player (and I think he has the skills to do so), then season-long stamina is necessary. With Cesar Hernandez entrenched as the Phillies everyday second baseman for now, Kingery has time to make the kind of adjustments that could turn him into that sort of player. It’s encouraging that he already played his way to shouting distance of the majors just a year after being drafted.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.6 WAR

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2012 from Ball HS (TX) Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 195 Bat/Throw L/L Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 55/55 40/50 55/55 45/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Produced just 3.6% walk rate at Triple-A in 2016.

Scouting Report

I needed a wise friend to caution me against NP’ing Nick Williams after I watched him swing at everything, almost literally, in the 2014 AFL. I considered his approach to be fatal, and I still do to a degree, but he’s an incredible talent. Williams has 70 bat speed, great hand-eye and impressive bat control. He has the raw physical tools to be at least a plus hitter, but his output is cannibalized by the most overaggressive approach in all of baseball. There’s enough natural leverage in his swing to produce power, too. He’s an above-average runner and long strider who passes in center field, though he spends a lot of time in right due to his plus arm.

Essentially, if you think Williams can either overcome or at least improve his horrendous approach, then he’s probably an above-average regular for you. I’ve seen enough of Williams’ wild swings at pitches nowhere near the zone and off-balance, early-count hacks at breaking balls to think otherwise. It takes some combination of makeup and athleticism to overcome such flaws, and Williams has one of those. I took umbrage with the way Williams’ benchings were handled by Lehigh Valley’s staff, as it made it unnecessarily public to the point where it gained traction with the media in Philly. But while I think too much was made of that particular incident, poor makeup reports have followed Williams since his days in the AZL, and such a track record is difficult to totally ignore.

I think Williams’ bat comps closely to Rays outfielder Corey Dickerson, who was worth 1.5 WAR last year. Williams is a superior defender, and I think he has the tools be an average everyday player, though I consider him riskier than the average Triple-A prospect due to the volatility of this type of skill set.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.7 WAR

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela Age 19 Height 6’1 Weight 155 Bat/Throw L/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/60 40/50 20/45 55/55 40/55 40/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Slashed .284/.355/.421 in GCL.

Scouting Report

A lanky, projectable second baseman with terrific feel to hit and promising defensive range and hands, Brito doesn’t have the arm for short (though all the other ingredients are present), so the hope is that he naturally grows into the kind of power necessary to profile on the other side of the bag. He has that smooth, picturesque, low-ball bat path associated with left-handed hitters and creates good extension through contact, so some indications of future power are here, as is an advanced feel for the strike zone. The body just has to come, and Brito needs to retain his current level of athleticism as it does. Once he starts to mature, physically, I think he’s going to take off. His upside is going to be dictated by how much the body has to give.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.6 WAR

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic Age 18 Height 6’3 Weight 215 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 20/40 70/70 30/60 30/20 40/45 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Posted .202 ISO.

Scouting Report

Ortiz is raw in many facets (his reads in the outfield are poor, he has some offspeed recognition issues), but he spent most of his amateur career taking BP for scouts and not actually playing games or getting game-speed reps necessary to tighten those things up. It’s an encouraging sign that he skipped the DSL and was getting to some of his plus-plus raw power in games last year as a 17-year-old in the GCL, and his pitch recognition improved as the year went along.

Teenagers this size (Ortiz’s body is essentially maxed out) almost invariably move to first base at some point. While reports of Ortiz’s makeup are sterling (he agreed to a deal with Philly, then got huge but has since improved his physique significantly), and I expect him to keep his body in check, I still have him projected to first base. He has the power to profile, but there’s some question about how much he’s going to hit. Chiefly, swing length is a concern.

This is a high-risk prospect not only because of Ortiz’s proximity to the majors but because, with a right-field or first-base profile, he has very little margin for error. The hit tool on its own doesn’t necessarily have to grow to average or better for him to profile there, but rather some combination of hit/on-base ability. And Ortiz’s 2016 showed some signs of life in that regard.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.8 WAR

Drafted: 21st Round, 2012 from Galena HS (NV) Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command 60/60 40/40 50/55 45/50 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 28% strikeout rate at High-A.

Scouting Report

Anderson missed all of 2015 recovering from Tommy John and returned to Low-A Lakewood last May as an older-for-the-level righty. By the end of the year, Philadelphia needed to add him to the 40-man to prevent another club from selecting him in the Rule 5 draft.

Anderson was touching 97 by year’s end with an average curveball, fringe changeup and below-average slider. That’s harder than he was throwing pre-TJ. He has a good pitcher’s body, and his arm action and delivery have both improved since before the TJ, but he still has issues getting on top of his fastball, and it often sails out of the zone.

Anderson has a chance for an above-average fastball and curveball, average changeup and average command. That’s a solid No. 4/5 starter. Scouts are inclined to ‘pen Anderson because of his injury history. Beyond the TJ, he’s had several other DL stints during the course of his career, including two in August of last year after returning. He has some more risk in his profile because of that.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.3 WAR