Adrian Sutil will be able to go one lap longer than Lewis Hamilton at the start of the Italian Grand Prix.

But Heikki Kovalainen could be the man to watch as he’s fuelled to make his pit stop much later than the three drivers in front of him. Here’s the fuel weights in full.

Italian Grand Prix fuel weights and pit stop predictions

Grid Name Weight Fuel (kg) First stint (laps) 1 Lewis Hamilton 653.5 48.5 17 2 Adrian Sutil 655 50 18 3 Kimi Raikkonen 662 57 21 4 Heikki Kovalainen 683 78 29 5 Rubens Barrichello 688.5 83.5 32 6 Jenson Button 687 82 31 7 Vitantonio Liuzzi 679.5 74.5 28 8 Fernando Alonso 677.5 72.5 27 9 Sebastian Vettel 682 77 29 10 Mark Webber 683 78 29 11 Jarno Trulli 703 98 37 12 Romain Grosjean 699.8 94.8 36 13 Robert Kubica 697.5 92.5 35 14 Giancarlo Fisichella 690 85 32 15 Nick Heidfeld 697.5 92.5 35 16 Timo Glock 709.8 104.8 40 17 Kazuki Nakajima 706.2 101.2 39 18 Nico Rosberg 708.6 103.6 40 19 Sebastien Burmi 706 101 39 20 Jaime Alguersuari 706 101 39

The start

First-lap collisions and penalties are highly likely at Monza’s tight first corner.

The new kerbs at the Rettifilio have been lowered, but drivers are still going to want to steer clear of them. Anyone who arrives at the first corner too quickly and cuts it will have to give back any places they’ve gained.

Second on the grid with a pair of KERS cars behind him, Sutil is a sitting duck. There’s little chance of him keeping Kimi Raikkonen and Kovalainen behind at the start. This also means Hamilton’s chances of losing the lead at the start are pretty slim, unless Raikkonen makes a particularly good getaway.

Fernando Alonso and Romain Grosjean also have KERS at their disposal at the start and lts of non-KERS cars in front of them to pick off. Each could threaten the championship contenders – Alonso the Brawns, and Grosjean the Red Bulls. As at Spa two weeks ago, this could easily get very messy.

Another word on those chicanes – during the GP2 race drivers who cut them three times were automatically given drive-through penalties. We could see more of the same tomorrow, particularly if it rains…

Weather

After qualifying, the clouds arrived and transformed Monza back into the dark, drenched spectacle we remember from last year. The GP2 feature race was delayed for 40 minutes and was started behind the safety car.

The rainfall radar shows a chance of further rain, potentially quite heavy, around 2pm local time tomorrow. We could yet get another wet Italian Grand Prix, made all the more difficult by the fact the F1 cars haven’t had any wet running at the track yet this year.

If the rain arrives we can throw most of our assumptions about the race out the window. A rolling start behind the safety car would help Hamilton keep his lead and guarantee him a clear view of the track ahead. But it might also play into the hands of those with more fuel on on board, who could stop later.

Even without the rain, we’ve got a good chance of an excellent race tomorrow. Who’s your tip for the win?

Italian Grand Prix