Boehner's stance could seriously limit options for avoiding the so-called 'fiscal cliff.' Boehner wary of lame-duck deal

DEPEW, N.Y. — For everyone pining for a sweeping deficit deal after the election, Speaker John Boehner has a message.

Don’t hold your breath.


In an interview here, the Ohio Republican said cobbling together a large-scale deal during the lame-duck session of Congress would not only be hard, but also the wrong thing for the country.

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“I think that’s difficult to do,” Boehner said when asked about the prospects for a large-scale deficit deal in November and December. “You know, and frankly, I’m not sure it’s the right thing to do — have a lot of retiring members and defeated members voting on really big bills. Eh, probably not the appropriate way to handle the lame duck.”

Boehner’s remarks represent the most public — and serious — signal from the speaker about how he’s thinking about the lame-duck session of Congress. The comments could stoke further doubts about what kind of deal the parties can hatch in the critical weeks between Election Day and the new year. While the nation remains entranced by the races for the White House and Senate, Capitol Hill insiders are sitting tight, waiting for the legislative war that will decide tax rates on all Americans and the scope of federal spending.

Boehner isn’t saying nothing will get done — in fact, he’s not making any proclamations about the prospect of a compromise with Democratic Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and whoever occupies the White House.

What he is saying is that he thinks is that the time is too short for something large – and more significantly, that he’s morally opposed to lawmakers with one foot out the door making decisions on behalf of the nation. That could seriously limit options for avoiding the so-called “fiscal cliff.”

The speaker’s remarks were a peek in the mind of one of the most important decision makers in Washington. What Congress decides to do about expiring tax rates, cuts to both defense and domestic spending, the debt ceiling and a host of other expiring provisions will reverberate not only in Washington but on Wall Street and around the world.

There’s a whole menu of options available to Congress and the White House as they try to avoid the fiscal cliff. One, which Boehner seems to be ruling out, is to fashion a massive debt compromise in November and December.

The most likely scenario appears to be a short-term agreement to avert a massive shift in tax policy and federal spending, with a framework for the principles for a longer-term solution that would ride alongside. Whether Boehner’s aversion to making decisions with lawmakers leaving Congress would prevent even the framework for a deal from being put in place remains to be seen.

The picture, of course, would change significantly if Mitt Romney wins. Capitol Hill insiders concede that the lame duck would present different challenges with a Republican preparing to move into the White House. Crafting a deal with a mostly red Washington could involve serious carping from conservatives if a deal strays too far from rock-ribbed Republican values.

But Boehner — who said at a rally he was “so proud” Romney’s debate performance — said he is ready to work with whoever is elected to the White House.

“Listen, I’m going to play whatever hand I’m dealt with,” he said, when asked whether he could work with Obama if he’s reelected. “Period.”

For the most part, other leaders haven’t tipped their hand as to what they want to see happen with the fiscal cliff. Some top Senate Democrats have suggested a possible framework that would set tax rate and spending targets but leave details to the key tax-writing committees.

Quietly in recent weeks, meetings have begun to sprout up on Capitol Hill. Boehner has met with Erskine Bowles and former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), who are pushing broadly for a large-scale deficit deal. Boehner has also met with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, and various senators have huddled with Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The speaker’s comments came at a call center (dubbed a “victory center”) funded by Boehner’s political team, the Republican National Committee and National Republican Congressional committee. The party has contacted 670,000 Empire State voters, an aide to the speaker said.

Boehner’s visit to this town outside Buffalo was on behalf of Chris Collins, who is running against Rep. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) in a newly drawn district. Wearing a bright red pullover on a brisk fall day, Boehner stood on a flatbed truck with Collins and New York State GOP Chairman Ed Cox and delivered a standard stump speech. The speaker took a shot at Vice President Joe Biden’s remark that the middle class has been “buried” and a swipe at Obama’s “you didn’t build that” line.

Republicans nationwide feel better about their political position this week than they did last. Romney’s debate performance has injected new life into that campaign, which helps politicians running for the House, the speaker said.

“I think, obviously, the better Gov. Romney does, the better our team is going to do,” Boehner said. “It’s going to create more enthusiasm, bring more of our people out and it’ll help people like Chris Collins and all of our candidates on the ticket.”

But fortunes for Democrats have improved, as well. Obama’s campaign raised $181 million in September, and unemployment ticked down to 7.8 percent from 8.1 percent.

“Well listen, it’s pretty clear that while the unemployment rate came down, we can be doing a lot better,” Boehner said. “And these policies the president has put in place are just not getting the economy moving quick enough. And I think Gov. Romney’s got a solid plan for getting our economy going again, and putting the American people back to work.”

Though Democrats are more bullish lately about their chances of picking up House seats, Boehner doesn’t seem to be sweating much about his chances of holding onto the chamber. He is traveling across the country, boosting Republican candidates and incumbents. Next week, he’ll be in New Hampshire, where he’ll stump at a “victory center” for Mitt Romney and Granite State Reps. Charlie Bass and Frank Guinta.

The entire political landscape matters for what happens in the lame-duck session. Boehner’s numbers, and the makeup of the House, will determine what kind of deal he could craft.

“Our team is doing real well from one coast to the other,” Boehner said. “Part of the reason they’re doing so well is these victory centers that we’re operating across New York, Illinois, California and a handful of other states, they’re really helping us get the job done.”

Asked plainly if Republicans will keep the House, Boehner said. “We’re going to keep the House.”