David Jolly participates in a ceremonial swearing-in photo opportunity March 13, 2014 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. | Getty David Jolly considering withdrawing from Senate race

Under intense local, state and national pressure, U.S. Rep. David Jolly is considering whether to drop his bid for U.S. Senate and run for reelection against former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

Jolly’s campaign would neither confirm nor deny the degree to which he’s weighing his options, only saying that “nothing has changed” concerning his Senate bid.


But those familiar with Jolly’s thinking say he has watched his chances in the crowded GOP Senate primary transform for the worse in recent weeks while a reelection bid for Florida’s 13th congressional district have brightened. State and local Republicans in the Tampa Bay region have made pledges of support and shared polling data showing he could do well against Crist.

“I would have to say still undecided,” said one Republican familiar with Jolly’s thinking. Another told POLITICO via text message: "Pretty sure the only one who really knows is Jolly. Lots of others spinning BS. Anyone who says they know is full of shit.”

Ironically, the biggest problem for all the GOP Senate candidates is the GOP Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, and outgoing incumbent Marco Rubio. Joined by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other top players, McConnell launched an all-out effort this month to get Rubio to run for reelection. That has chilled already tapped-out donors and broadcast doubts about the viability of all five Republican candidates seeking to replace Rubio. June was supposed to be a big month for many of the candidates.

“This Rubio crap from McConnell and the boys just killed us,” said one Republican involved with the Senate race.

Rubio has all but said he’ll make good on his promise, made while a presidential candidate, to leave the Senate in January. He gives the same answer as Jolly about his plans: “Nothing has changed.”

He won’t give a firm no, which some Rubio allies say is meant to boost the weight of a future endorsement and his current support for his close personal friend, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. Others believe Rubio is wavering amid all the blandishments and genuinely reconsidering.

Jolly has a clear plan if Rubio decides to join the Senate race by June 24, the last day to qualify in Florida.

“I would withdraw from the Senate race and support Rubio for reelection,” Jolly told POLITICO in a written statement Friday.

That was a sign to many insiders that he was already feeling the pressures of running statewide.

Jolly’s campaign at the close of the last financial quarter, March 31, reported he had just $562,657.88 cash on hand. That’s not enough to run a contested congressional race against Crist right now – let alone a statewide race in Florida. With 10 major media markets, Florida can cost a campaign at least $1 million weekly in TV ads in the final days of a campaign. Absentee ballot voting begins in about two months for the Aug. 30 primary.

Crist entered the race for Jolly’s St. Petersburg-area congressional seat after it was redrawn and became more Democratic-performing. That prompted Jolly to announce his bid for Senate. Since then, Jolly has raised his state and national profile. And Republicans in the state and district are desperate for a candidate to match up against Crist, loathed by the GOP for leaving the party in his failed bid for Senate against Rubio in 2010. Crist as a Democrat ran unsuccessfully against Gov. Rick Scott in 2014, but Crist won the 13th congressional district by double digits.

State Sen. Jack Latvala told the Tampa Bay Times on Wednesday that he recently conducted “multiple polls” showing Jolly could beat Crist. Republicans say that, a year ago, polls showed the opposite. The paper’s political editor, Adam C. Smith, noted Jolly’s centrist positions and said he “may be poised” to leave the Senate race.

“Does this look like a man consumed with winning a statewide Republican primary? No,” Smith wrote. “What it looks like is a candidate hugging the center and consciously reaching out to Democrats, independents, and moderates alike. It looks more as if David Jolly is preparing to run for another term in his Democratic-leaning congressional district in Pinellas County than stick with his U.S. Senate campaign.”

Senate race polls consistently show Jolly at or near the top of a field of statewide unknowns.

A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey of likely Florida Republican voters released last week showed Jolly pulling 13 percent of the vote -- a close second to businessman Carlos Beruff, at 17 percent. U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis was third (10 percent), followed by Lopez-Cantera (9 percent) and businessman Todd Wilcox (2 percent).

Beruff, a political newcomer, became a marginal frontrunner after spending about $3 million on Florida TV – almost all of it his own money – but he has drastically cut back in recent days, according to a media tracking service and other campaigns.

Whoever wins the GOP primary expects to face Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, who has a small lead in general-election matchups and $20.5 million in pledged support from the Democratic establishment while Republicans suggest they might spend nothing. Murphy has a small lead over Democratic U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson in their primary, polls show.