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Buy Walt Disney shares (DIS) ahead of the company’s April 11 investor day presentation, advises RBC Capital analyst Steven Cahall. The stock’s next move could follow changes to Wall Street’s earnings estimates, and those could hinge on the economics of a streaming service that launches later this year. Disney is likely to have more to say about that at its presentation, which will take place in Burbank, Calif.

The back story. Cahall expects Disney to show off an “impressive” user interface for the new streaming service, called Disney+, and trailers for its original content. “We also think it will quantify some discrete cost items such as content spending, marketing, and tech,” he wrote in a Thursday report. “And, we think it will further detail foregone licensing revenues with a rate of decay that’s better than the bears contemplate.”

What’s new. There is more to watch than streaming. In films, Disney is coming off a recent win with Captain Marvel and approaching the April 27 release of Avengers: Endgame. At the parks, there are vast new Star Wars lands that open May 31 at Disneyland in California and Aug. 29 at Disney World in Florida. A recently completed purchase of film and television assets from Fox is expected to yield cost savings, especially at the studios. Cahall expects $2 billion in yearly “synergies” from the deal by 2022.

Read more:Disney’s Bob Iger Talks Streaming, Park Plans, and Learning From Kodak

Yet the biggest near-term catalyst for the stock could be clarity. Wall Street’s earnings estimates for Disney are a mess at the moment. Some adjust for the Fox deal, and others don’t. Some don’t yet subtract for the cost of launching a streaming service. For Disney’s next fiscal year, which will run through September 2020, the consensus stands at $7.25 earnings per share, but that number is expected to come down as analysts fine-tune their financial models.

Uncertainty over just how far estimates will fall has put a lid on the stock price. Disney is little changed this year, even though the S&P 500 is up 12%. Shares were up 0.6%, to $110.94, Thursday morning.

Looking ahead. Cahall expects the investor day presentation to serve as a clearing event for earnings estimates. If he’s right, the Street will come down to somewhere between $6.50 and $7.00 in projected earnings for fiscal 2020, alleviating fears of a bigger decline. He expects shares to rise to $120 in the near term and $140 over the next year.

As Disney returns to growth, Cahall expects it to reach over $10 a share in earnings by fiscal 2025, and for investors to pay a much higher multiple of earnings for the shares: 22, versus a recent 15. If so, investors could end up with a 15% yearly return, on average, over the next five years.

Write to Jack Hough at jack.hough@barrons.com