Nashville SC returns to the road after a merciful two-game homestand. The destination is a familiar one for a certain member of the squad. Can Matt Pickens lead the Boys in Gold to a win over his former club?

The essentials

Opponent: Tampa Bay Rowdies (5-5-2, 18 GF, 16 GA so far in 2018, 8th in USL East, 11th in USL East Power Ratings)

The Line: None yet – will update when available

Time, Location: 6:30 p.m. CDT • Al Lang Stadium, St. Petersburg, Fla.

Event: USL Regular season

Weather: 84ºF, 4% chance of rain, 64% humidity, 8 MPH Westerly winds

Watch: Locally on MyTV30 or stream on ESPN Plus. See the list of soccer bars in Nashville if you want to watch remotely. The Roadies will be at their typical spot, Pastime, Assembly at Tailgate Music Row. Listen on 94.9 The Game 2.

Follow: @NashvilleSC, @ClubCountryUSA, USL gametracker page, @TampaBayRowdies, #TBRvNSH

Etc.: Content from the US Open Cup win against Colorado Rapids. Q&A with Dan Endonino of Unused Substitutes podcast.

Elsewhere: Golden Goal feature on Matt Pickens. USL Eastern Conference notebook. Unused Subs game guide.

Tampa Bay Rowdies

So, it’s been a really interesting season for Tampa Bay already. They axed their coach mid-season and replaced him with an active player, though Neill Collins has hung up the boots in favor of the whistle since the change. Not content to settle, they promoted another player to player-coach status midseason, though former England international Joe Cole will just have coach status for this one, suspended due to yellow card accumulation. The Rowdies will also be without defender Marcel Schäfer after a red card against Atlanta United 2 last week (his violent conduct suspension was reduced from three games to a standard red-card one gamer).

“Marcel and Joe are the leaders on the field by far,” Dan Endonino of Unused Substitutes told me. “Their experience and talent are surely going to be missed this week. Obviously not knowing the line up, I would think Georgi Hristov and Martin Vingaard will be the elder statesmen and help guide the team in this one.”

As if losing 1.5 players to the coaching box and 1.5 to suspension weren’t enough, the Rowdies have also lost a ton to the trainer’s table. Defender David Najem is out for the year with an ACL tear, replacement Kyle Curinga has been out since mid-May with a sprained ankle, eleven-game defensive starter Zach Portillos will miss his second consecutive game with a sprained knee, as will midfielder Lance Rozeboom. This isn’t a world-beating team to begin with, but between injuries and suspensions, Nashville is getting an even further diminished version of it.

All that said, this isn’t a bad team, currently in playoff position despite an unfavorable home/road split of 5/7. Much has been made of Tampa Bay’s home form, but it seems there’s no logical explanation for why their split is so much more severe than the average team:

“Through the Rowdies modern incarnation it’s almost a mirror split record-wise,” Endonino said. “It spans players and coaches. Nobody can quite figure out what the issue is. Nashville should be a little worried coming to Al Lang because it’s proven to be a rough place to play.”

I think so far this season, there’s a bit of luck in play, with the home schedule (aside from Western Conference leader Real Monarchs, who had to cross multiple timezones to travel from early spring in Utah to the Gulf Coast – a more severe adjustment than the average Eastern Conference team will have to handle) composed primarily of either weak opponents, or strong opponents whose super power is road draws (yes, I’m talking about Pittsburgh).

So who are the actual players we’ll be looking at? Other than long-term injuries, they should be well-rested (they lost in just the second round of the US Open Cup, and won’t have the mid-week games under their belt that Nashville does). We should see the Best-available XI.

That starts with striker Georgi Hristov, the team leader with four goals and an assist. Midfielder Leo Fernandes is tied with the unavailable Cole with three goals and an assist to come second on the team in scoring. The only other multi-goal scorer is midfielder Junior Flemmings with two. The unavailable Schäfer is the assist leader with three, while star of very bad hafltime #content Jack Blake has a pair.

Defensively, Hunter Gorskie is the man to watch. That may be an easy choice – just look for the only centerback to start the year who remains healthy and is eligible for this game – but there’s a lot to like about him.

“He started the season a bit shaky, but has been rounding into form,” Endonino said. “He can score a goal off a set piece and is a solid center back. If he’s playing well, the Rowdies are in good shape.”

Former US youth international Cody Mizell has been the primary keeper, but has been benched the past three games in favor of Akira Fitzgerald. Their stats are pretty much indistinguishable – either one is going to save about 2/3 of shots faced.

Collins has changed up Tampa Bay’s tactics since settling into the head coaching role. The Rowdies have tried 4-3-3, 3-5-2, and 4-4-2 schemes lately. Since the switch to more flexibility, they’ve given up two goals each to Pittsburgh and Toronto (bad) but none to Atlanta United 2 (good). With their CB depth situation, the even backline has been leaned upon – even though the Rowdies are listing it as a 3-5-2 in their game notes.

This looks like a team that’s just OK when healthy, and it’s not healthy. Two of its top four or five players are also unavailable.

The Boys in Gold

Nashville SC is readying for the final game of its grueling six-in-sixteen stretch. Fortunately, the team emerges relatively healthy: the only player listed on the injury report was winger Alan Winn (“questionable”), but given that he was an unused substitute – no pun-type substance intended – Wednesday evening, he’s probably able to go if needed.

Nashville did a good job rotating its squad just a bit during the combination of busy USL play and US Open Cup games. London Woodberry worked in multiple defensive positions, both Kosuke Kimura and Ryan James got time at right back, Matt LaGrassa and Bolu Akinyode were able to spell each other (and other midfielders) at times, and Nashville also added striker depth in the form of former USL Rookie of the Year Brandon Allen, letting them keep Ropapa Mensah fresh (as did playing Tucker Hume and Robin Shroot at times) without sacrificing much in the way of performance.

There are just a couple spots that probably didn’t work out the way Gary Smith would have liked: Lebo Moloto didn’t get to rest against Pittsburgh because Mensah fell ill, and there hasn’t been much chance to let Liam Doyle, Michael Reed, or Justin Davis take a break. Reed has played every USL minute to date plus Wednesday’s full outing. Davis sat the Pittsburgh game, but adds 153 Open Cup minutes to his output this season (including Wednesday).

Sooner or later, those dudes will need some rest. This would actually be a good time for it against lesser competition, but it will likely have to wait until next Saturday (a home game against moribund NCFC, with an Open Cup tilt that Wednesday), if it comes at all.

Projected lineups

With an assist from Mr. Endonino on the Tampa side of things:

That’s a 4-4-2 diamond for Tampa, with Vingaard playing the more defensive of the two central roles. As I mentioned above, Tampa is a little tactically fluid lately, to the roles between midfield and forward can shift during the course of the match, if necessary.

For Nashville, I have Michael Reed getting his first USL rest of the season, with Bolu Akinyode and Matt LaGrassa playing the central defensive midfield roles. Taylor Washington and Robin Shroot start on the edges, and after Kosuke Kimura got just a token appearance against his former club Wednesday night, he’s rested for this one.

I do think putting out a relatively strong lineup against Tampa is the move here, then more rest can happen next weekend at home against a weaker opponent in NCFC.

Predictions

Tampa’s home-road form split, to me, says more “this is a mediocre team whose best performances come at home,” rather than “this is a terrible road team and a great home one.” One of those best performances coming tomorrow can still be dangerous for NSC.

Michael Reed is on the bench for Nashville, in case it appears his services are needed (while trying to give him some rest here). Davis wears the armband in his stead.

Taylor Washington notches his first goal of the year. Tampa is extremely weak defensively in terms of depth and having to force guys into unnatural positions. A guy with his speed should be able to exploit the somewhat, and he finishes one of his opportunities in on goal.

With a LaGrassa/Akinyode central midfield, there’s a bit more of a “one-up, one-back” shape, with LaGrassa more comfortable involving himself going forward and Akinyode hanging back a bit more for coverage. In defensive postures, they’re still side-by-side as standard CDMs.

Pickens lets in a softer goal than you’d expect, what with the nature of playing against his former club, in front of fans who appreciated him for four years, etc. It’s unfair to say a veteran like him suffers from nerves, but however you want to phrase it, not his best performance of the year.

Brandon Allen continues his incredible goal-scoring run. He’s replaced by Mensah at the 60th minute after a first-half goal. Moloto is replaced by Reed shortly thereafter, and LaGrassa moves up to the second striker role. Ish Jome (trying to score) or Ryan James (trying to defend lead) is the final sub.

Bradley. Bourgeois. Set. Piece. Goal.

Nashville SC wins 3-1. I know Tampa is considered pretty good, but the fact of the matter is that they’ve shown they’re not over the course of the year. I’m still worried about them breaking out a vintage performance, but that would be a surprise, especially with their injury and suspension situation. Nashville SC continues its upward trajectory not just in the table, but in the (mis)perceptions of observers, as well.