As the third week of the regular season arrives, the lingering absence of Le’Veon Bell has become little more than an afterthought in Pittsburgh. And for good reason, given the various other headaches and distractions in Pittsburgh right now.

The absence of news regarding Bell also has been a factor. If there are no developments, there’s nothing to talk or write or argue about. No news is simply no news, and there’s so much other news that it’s hard to get anyone to care about the modern-day equivalent of Generalissimo Francisco Franco still being dead.

But when will the Steelers see their modern-day equivalent of Franco Harris? Once Bell misses one regular-season game check, at a pre-tax rate of $855,000, it’s easy to assume that he’ll miss as many as he can while still preserving his ability to hit the open market in 2019. By rule, he must show up by the Tuesday after Week 10 to get credit for his contract and to put the Steelers in the quarterback-franchise-tender-or-let-him-walk-away dilemma after the season.

What if Bell simply doesn’t show up at all? Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette recently raised that possibility in general terms. Let’s address it more specifically: What are the risks and rewards of skipping all of 2018?

If Bell stays away for the full season, the Steelers could use the franchise tag again next year at the same rate as this year: $14.54 million. This means they’d have to carry $14.54 million under the cap while waiting for Bell to show up, or not to show up, picking up $855,000 per week during the regular season if he doesn’t. They also could trade him out from under the tag to a team that could at that point (if the deal is done before July 15) be able to sign him to a long-term contract.

The Steelers also could simply decide to be done with it, not tagging Bell at all, letting him leave via free agency, and getting credit for his exit toward compensatory draft picks in 2020.

If Bell is thinking about not showing up, he’d need to make an educated guess as to which of the three options the Steelers would pursue: (1) tag and squat; (2) tag and trade; or (3) don’t tag at all. And Bell then would have to balance that against the incremental risk of serious injury based on showing up for the final seven weeks of the regular season, at $855,000 pre-tax, in the hopes of ensuring a clear shot at the open market.

Assuming that, at worst, the Steelers would tag Bell in order to trade him, Bell then would need to balance the contract he’d get from a team that has to trade for him after incurring no physical risk (and getting no pay) in 2018 against the contract he’d receive on the wide-open market, but only after getting through seven regular-season games (and perhaps multiple postseason games) healthy enough to have maximum value.

The Bears, for example, paid linebacker Khalil Mack $23.5 million per year in new money while also giving up two first-round picks to the Raiders. What would the Bears have paid Mack if they could have gotten him without giving up the picks? $30 million per year? More?

That’s the analysis in which Bell needs to engage. With a couple of wild cards to potentially complicate it.

First, how willing will Bell be to milk actual or perceived injuries to limit his exposure to injury, from hamstring pulls to concussion-like symptoms to anything else that would minimize the number of times he’s used? Second, would Bell say to the Steelers when the regular season ends (and if the team makes the playoffs), “The window for signing me to a long-term deal has opened again, and I’m not playing in the postseason unless you pay me what I think I’ll get on the open market”? That would be a way to reduce injury risk while also ensuring a ticket to the open market.

That said, the perception/reality that Bell is milking injuries and the reality of walking out on his team for the playoffs would potentially make him less attractive on the open market. Which means that the best way to preserve Bell’s value next year could be to take no money at all this year, hope the Steelers either wouldn’t tag him or tag him and trade him, and then seek from some other team the long-term security the Steelers have consistently refused to provide.

In other words, Steelers fans should prepare for the very real possibility that Bell will never again wear a Steelers uniform. His willingness to trade $855,000 per week to avoid being overused easily could become a willingness to give up the full $14.54 million in an effort to get a lot more than that in 2019.