ALASKA

Incumbent Republican: Dan Sullivan (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: 2018 House nominee Alyse Galvin

Alaska, by definition, is a pretty tough nut for the Democrats to crack. That said, the Democrats have a bit of a bench—a former statewide officer, as well as the mayor of the state’s largest city. But we’re going to give the nod to someone who has never held elective office in the state. Galvin ran a mighty impressive campaign against Republican Rep. Don Young in 2018, who has literally been getting elected to Congress in Alaska for generations (he will have served nearly 47 years in the House by the time the 2020 elections roll around). She ran as an Independent on the Democratic line, which would ruffle feathers for us just about anywhere else, but might be the right formula for a Democrat in Alaska.

Galvin might be tempted to take another crack at the House (Young has to retire at SOME POINT, doesn’t he?), but her narrow miss against Young, and her formidable fundraising in that race (where she raised $1.9 million for the cycle), makes her a top-tier candidate for this seat.

Other prospects: former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich, Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz

ARIZONA

Incumbent Republican: Martha McSally (first appointed: 2019)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: Rep. Ruben Gallego/Astronaut Mark Kelly (tie)

In the state of Arizona, where the appointment of Sen. Martha McSally necessitates a 2020 special election, Democrats have a problem, but what a great problem it is for the blue squad to have. They have two top-shelf candidates that are not only prospects for the seat, they are both more likely than not to be on the ballot in 2020.

Shuttle commander Mark Kelly (who, of course, is the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords) made his announcement last week, and raised a metric ton of cash in his very first day as a candidate: $1.1 million. Respected Phoenix-area Rep. Ruben Gallego wasted no time in making clear he was still mulling a bid.

It wasn’t long ago that in a state like Arizona, the Democrats would spend the off-year fishing around for a marginally acceptable Some Dude. In 2020, instead, Arizona has a surplus of quality Democratic prospects. Each brings a strength to the table. Gallego was a Democratic leader in the state legislature before heading to Washington and being in his early 40s, he could serve for a generation or more. Kelly has an unbelievable biography, and his apolitical background could appeal to independent voters. In a perfect world, one of these guys would run in 2020 and the other in 2022 for governor.

Other prospects: Rep. Greg Stanton, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs

ARKANSAS

Incumbent Republican: Tom Cotton (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Mike Beebe

Few states have seen the Democratic Party take a more precipitous fall than Arkansas. A decade ago, the Democrats were in the majority of the state legislature, held every statewide constitutional office, and three of the four U.S. House seats. Today, the Democrats hold no federal seats, no statewide constitutional seats, and a bare fraction of legislative seats.

So, might as well go back to the “good old days” for a prospect. Beebe was the final hurrah for Democrats in the state, holding the governorship of the state between 2007-2015, and winning in a landslide in an otherwise dreary 2010 election cycle. He probably would never run (he’s 72, and has shown little interest in a political resurrection), but if he did, he’d present an interesting generational challenge to Cotton.

Other prospects: former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays, state Sen. Greg Leding

COLORADO

Incumbent Republican: Cory Gardner (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: Former CO-House Speaker Crisanta Duran

Colorado is much like its Four Corners near-neighbor Arizona: a state that has a surplus of viable and promising Democratic talent who could give freshman Sen. Cory Gardner a heck of a race if they were so inclined. Already in the race are former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, and former state Sen. Mike Johnston. But there are no shortage of election watchers (including the commenters on our Twitter thread on this very subject) who are waiting to see what former House Speaker Crisanta Duran decides to do.

Duran, who recently left the state legislature after eight years in the House and two years as Speaker, would make history as the first female senator in Colorado state history. She’d also be a fantastic voice on the issue of voter rights, having served as an advisor to Jason Kander’s Let America Vote organization. She has not vocalized her political ambitions for the future explicitly just yet, but a lot of folks assume she will land in this race.

Other prospects: Romanoff, Johnston, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (if he decides to forgo a widely-presumed presidential bid)

GEORGIA

Incumbent Republican: David Perdue (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: 2018 Gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams

Many of the choices presented in this “wishlist” piece are excruciatingly difficult calls. Here is one that is not a tough call. If Abrams wants the opportunity, it is hard not to imagine that the field will be cleared for her.

In a performance that turned heads nationwide, Abrams came within an eyelash of winning the Georgia governor’s race, actually outperforming Hillary Clinton’s in some of the predominantly white suburban precincts around Atlanta. What’s more, polling released last month in Georgia showed that the bruising battle with Brian Kemp did not ding her personal favorability. To top it all off, she hit the national stage with a largely praised response to President Trump’s State of the Union address earlier in the month. She would easily be the most formidable challenger to Perdue, a freshman senator who has turned relatively few heads in his first six years on the job.

Other prospects: 2014 Senate nominee Michelle Nunn, State Rep. Scott Holcomb

IDAHO

Incumbent Republican: Jim Risch (first elected: 2008)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: 2014 Gubernatorial nominee A.J. Balukoff

There has not been a Democratic senator hailing from Idaho since Frank Church left office in 1981. And given the current state of politics in the Gem State, it seems fairly unlikely that 2020 will break that streak. Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch won his last re-election bid in 2014 by a crushing 65-35 margin over Nels Mitchell, and in four statewide bids for elective office (two as senator, two as lieutenant. governor) has never won less than 56 percent of the vote.

So, while the pickings may be slim in Idaho, Democrats could do a lot worse than turning back to 2014 gubernatorial nominee) A.J. Balukoff. Balukoff got 39 percent of the vote statewide in a fairly god-awful year for Democrats in 2014 (which beat Paulette Jordan’s 2018 total, despite a far more bleak national climate). Risch is capable of dumb crusades (consider his 2018 tantrum when he almost created a government shutdown because the federal government was going to rename a wilderness area for former Democratic Gov. Cecil Andrus, whom Risch despised). If anyone can seize on a Risch error and make this competitive, Balukoff has that skill set.

Other prospects: state Sen. Michelle Stennett, state Sen. Mark Nye

IOWA

Incumbent Republican: Joni Ernst (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: State Auditor Rob Sand

When we cast a net via Twitter to get our readers’ suggestions for potential “wish list” contenders, no state drew a more disparate list of Democratic hopefuls than Iowa, where freshman Sen. Joni Ernst is considered among the more vulnerable incumbents in the nation for 2020. Indeed, close to a dozen Democrats got named, with suggestions ranging from 60-something former Gov. Tom Vilsack to 30-something J.D. Scholten, who came within a handful of points of an unthinkable upset of longtime bigot (oh, and Congressman) Steve King. One additional name that got a lot of support from our readers was 2018 secretary of state nominee Deidre DeJear, who came within eight points of knocking off incumbent Republican Paul Pate last year.

But the nod goes to state auditor Rob Sand, who did something that has proven quite difficult in the past several cycles: knocked off a Republican statewide incumbent. His 51-46 win over state auditor Mary Mosiman was something of a rarity in recent years, when it seemed like the only way a Democrat could win statewide was to be named Michael Fitzgerald (the state treasurer for the last 35 years) or Tom Miller (the state attorney general for the last 40 years, save for an unsuccessful bid for Governor in 1990).

Other prospects: DeJear, Scholten

KANSAS

Incumbent Republican: None (Pat Roberts announced his retirement)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: Rep. Sharice Davids

On paper, Kansas is not a particularly appetizing prospect for Democrats. The last Democrat to hold a Senate seat here left office over 75 years ago. So to say there has been a drought for the Democrats here at the Senate level is … an understatement. But 2020 brings not only an open seat, but also the very real prospect that former right-wing Secretary of State (and recent gubernatorial loser—click the link, it’s freaking hilarious) Kris Kobach might single-handedly make this race competitive by throwing his hat into the ring.

If he does, Democrats would be well-served to take advantage with a top-flight candidate. Davids, on the heels of her strong win over incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder in the suburban Kansas City-based 3rd District, would be an excellent choice. A monster fundraiser who matches a strong biography with stronger campaign skills, she could even give a non-Kobachian Republican a hell of a race. The only trepidation may be leaving a swingy House seat open.

Other prospects: former U.S. Attorney Barry Grissom, state Sen. Barbara Bollier

KENTUCKY

Incumbent Republican: Mitch McConnell (first elected: 1984)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: 2018 House nominee Amy McGrath

Democrats would love a top contender to go after McConnell, who has been a consistent pain in their asses from his perch as Senate Majority Leader. It is tempting here to pick former Gov. Steve Beshear or his son Andy. He is a proven vote-getter, and might be eager to avenge a defeat at the hands of McConnell (who bested him in a Senate race back in 1996). But he’ll also be 76 on Election Day, and has no signs of wanting to come out of retirement, even for a shot at Cocaine Mitch. Andy, meanwhile, is a tougher call, because 2019 will be determinative for him. Either he will be the newly elected governor of the state (which makes him highly unlikely to run), or he will have just come off a painful loss. Either way, he seems unlikely to make the leap.

So, the nod could easily go instead to someone coming off a hard-fought defeat in 2018: former KY-06 nominee Amy McGrath. Her biography is a campaign consultant’s dream, and she acquitted herself well against a strong incumbent in 2018, only losing to Rep. Andy Barr by three points. She’d clean house in the Louisville metro area, and her background in the military might keep her from getting smooshed in the more traditionally conservative corners of the state. All these are probably reasons why we learned this past week that Chuck Schumer has already reached out to McGrath, who did not rule out such a run.

Other prospects: talk radio host Matt Jones, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray

LOUISIANA

Incumbent Republican: Bill Cassidy (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: Governor John Bel Edwards

Louisiana, like Arkansas, has shifted so markedly away from the Democrats over the past decade that it seems highly unlikely the Democrats will expend a tremendous amount of energy to try to re-claim the Senate seat lost by veteran Sen. Mary Landrieu back in 2014.

That said, man … that calculus could change quickly if current Gov. John Bel Edwards decided to throw his hat in the ring. The man who scored a double-digit triumph over Republican Sen. David Vitter in an open-seat showdown for the governor’s mansion in 2015, Edwards has to still make it to 2020 unscathed, given that he is up for re-election this November. It’s a tough task (the generic lean here for Democrats is brutal), but not impossible: some big names declined, leaving GOP Congressman Ralph Abraham as the most likely Republican to take the shot.

Edwards would not be a lock, by any means. Even beloved former governors find the transition to a federal race challenging. Just ask Phil Bredesen how his 2018 went.

Other prospects: former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, state Sen. Eric LaFleur

MAINE

Incumbent Republican: Susan Collins (first elected: 1996)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: Rep. Jared Golden

Aside from McConnell, the most attractive incumbent for Democrats, not necessarily from a vulnerability standpoint, but just from a “spite and anger” standpoint, would have to be Collins, who has developed a brand of talking like a moderate and governing like Tom Cotton. The problem here is that while there are a number of solid prospects, all of them have some liability, whether it is a recent stinging loss or lackluster past fundraising.

Maine does have the benefit of two Democratic members of the House, but one gets the feeling that if Chellie Pingree wanted to move from her house seat to a statewide office, she would’ve done it before now (at this point, we’re guessing her daughter Hannah might be more inclined, if she wants back into elective politics). Last year, though, Maine got a second Democrat in the House, in the form of Rep. Jared Golden. He ran a solid campaign in knocking off GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin, and showed a flair for fundraising in that race that could easily translate statewide, given that he raised a Senate-like $5.7 million in that successful bid to upset Poliquin.

Other prospects: Belfast Mayor Samantha Paradis, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree

MISSISSIPPI

Incumbent Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith (first elected: 2018)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley

This was actually a harder call than a state like Mississippi would ordinarily merit. Never high on Democratic radar screens in statewide races, the incumbent (Hyde-Smith) was held to a 53-47 win last November in a runoff against Democratic former cabinet official Mike Espy. And Espy has already filed for a rematch in 2020.

So why not stick with the guy that made it so close in 2018? Two reasons: (1.) The track record of statewide candidates who lost their first bid turning around and successfully winning rematches has not been spectacular, and there’s good reason to believe that Espy’s impressive 46 percent performance in a low-turnout special runoff could be a high water mark; and (2.) Presley has a track record of winning votes in a part of the state (northern Mississippi) where Democrats usually struggle mightily. He won his third term to the PSC by a yawning 61-39 gap, even outrunning victorious Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood in the counties that make up his district.

If Presley declines to run, however, Espy is clearly the best possible remaining candidate, and would have to be considered a well-above average “get” for the Democrats in a state like Mississippi.

Other prospects: Espy, state Rep. Jay Hughes

MONTANA

Incumbent Republican: Steve Daines (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: Gov. Steve Bullock

Montana is an interesting state. Democrats rarely sniff single digits in presidential contests here, but in statewide elections, the Democrats have been remarkably competitive, currently holding the governorship of the state, and one of the two U.S. Senate seats. So even though Sen. Steve Daines was elected in 2014 rather easily, he cannot expect an uncontested cruise to a second term next year.

As it happens, despite its reputation for redness, Montana has had a Democratic governor for well over a decade now. Now, Gov. Steve Bullock might be mulling a White House bid (and, I mean, who isn’t at this point?), and he seems lukewarm to a statewide bid. But given that he isn’t in yet, and would be roughly the 235th Democrat to announce were he to do so, perhaps he can be persuaded to make a run at Daines. If he were to do so, he’d instantly make this a race, with universal name recognition and coming off a solid 2016 performance statewide where he bested businessman (and now Congressman) Greg Gianforte by a 50-46 margin, even as Trump was winning the state by over 20 points.

Other prospects: Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, 2018 House nominee Kathleen Williams

NEBRASKA

Incumbent Republican: Ben Sasse (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: state Sen. Sara Howard

Nebraska usually lays reasonably low on Democratic target lists, and with good reason. Ben Sasse won this seat by a better than 2-1 margin in 2014, defeating David Domina.

But if any Democrat could make this a race, it would be a young, up-and-coming state senator. Two come to mind, and they are anchored in the two larger cities of the state. They are Omaha state Sen. Sara Howard, and Lincoln state Sen. Adam Morfeld. Both are in their 30s, and seem poised to end their political careers somewhere other than the unicameral legislature. Either would be as good as the Democrats could get: Howard has been on the forefront of the opioid epidemic (she experienced the epidemic firsthand through addiction in her own family), and Morfeld served as executive director of Nebraskans for Civic Reform.

Give the smallest of edges here to Howard, because of her leadership role on a very timely issue. Also, as a practical matter, Morfeld (who was re-elected to the legislature in 2018) might be loath to give up his seat, because if he were to somehow topple Sasse, the Republican governor would retain the right to appoint his replacement. While the legislature is nominally nonpartisan, Gov. Ricketts would almost certainly seize the opportunity to replace the Democrat Morfeld with a Republican, padding the GOP’s advantage in the state.

Other prospects: Morfeld, Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler, state Sen. Steve Lathrop

NORTH CAROLINA

Incumbent Republican: Thom Tillis (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: Attorney General Josh Stein

North Carolina has steadily morphed into a swing state, and that means that freshman GOP Sen. Thom Tillis cannot rest easy. But the biggest problem for Democrats is the lack of an obvious federal bench. The insane gerrymandering of the state by Republicans have left the state with only three Democratic House members (none of whom seem eager to go to the other side of the Capitol).

Democratic attorney general Josh Stein seems almost certain to run for re-election, in advance of a possible 2024 run for governor, but hey … is this a wish list, or not? Stein outran all other Democrats running statewide in 2016, with the lone exception of longtime Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who has already run for the Senate twice and is highly unlikely, at 73, to want to do it again). Stein has won close races before, and might be persuaded by the fact that any path to a Democratic Senate majority seems likely to go through Thom Tillis, meaning that national Democrats will likely commit to offering full support to whomever emerges with the Democratic nomination.

Other prospects: state Sen. Jeff Jackson, Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles.

OKLAHOMA

Incumbent Republican: Jim Inhofe (first elected: 1994)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: state Sen. J.J. Dossett

Oklahoma may well be an open seat in 2020—Inhofe will be knocking on the door of his 86th birthday on Election Night 2020, and has been in the Senate for nearly a quarter-century. But, given the generic lean of the state, an open seat will not create a crisis situation for Republicans, who have an enormous bench in the state of ambitious pols who have been awaiting this moment for a while.

Whether the Republican opponent is a veteran senator like Inhofe or a fresh face, Democrats would rely most likely on their state legislature for their bench, given the absence of statewide and federal officers at present. One promising prospect would be state senator J.J. Dossett. Dossett won election to the state Senate in a brutally red district (Trump 68-26!) centered in communities to the north of Tulsa. A teacher and veteran, Dossett has the kind of background that could appeal to a wide swath of voters, essential in a state where true-blue voters are going to be difficult to find.

Other prospects: state Rep. Cyndi Munson, state Rep. Emily Virgin

SOUTH CAROLINA

Incumbent Republican: Lindsey Graham (first elected: 2002)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: former state party chair Jaime Harrison

South Carolina is, arguably, the race that might lie in the “longshot” category that the Democrats would get the biggest psychic thrill out of claiming. That’s because the incumbent, Lindsey Graham, has transformed into an insufferable Trump sycophant, a far cry from the small bits of independence he showed prior to Trump’s election in 2016.

Beating Graham will not be easy in a state where the Democratic support is traditionally inelastic-—t’s easy for Dems to get to 42-44 percent, but incredibly hard for them to get to that magic 50 percent + 1. Harrison, who has already declared his interest in a bid, is as solid a prospect as any. From his perch as the one-time chair of the party, he probably has a good an understanding as anyone of the “small necessities” required to be competitive statewide.

Other prospects: former Lt. Gov nominee Bakari Sellers, Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin

SOUTH DAKOTA

Incumbent Republican: Mike Rounds (First Elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: 2018 gubernatorial nominee Billie Sutton

South Dakota, it is fair to say, is reasonably low on the target list for Democrats. However, unlike a lot of the states in the 2020 rotation for the U.S. Senate, there is a recent history of electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate. As recently as 2005, both members of the Senate delegation from South Dakota were Democrats.

Indeed, as recently as 2018, Democrats came within an eyelash of a statewide win. And the man responsible for that near-miss is clearly the best Democratic prospect for a Senate bid: former state legislator Billie Sutton. For the uninitiated, Sutton has a made-for-South Dakota biography: He was a professional rodeo rider who turned to public service after a riding accident left him paralyzed from the waist down when he was in his mid-20s.

Sutton pushed now-Gov. Kristi Noem to the limit in 2018, and his 48 percent of the vote was the best performance for a Democrat statewide in South Dakota in quite some time. If Sutton is disinterested in a bid, Democrats will probably need to rely on a relatively thin statewide legislative bench to take a shot at Rounds. But, in a sign of how thin the bench is in South Dakota, in the flurry of responses on Twitter asking for proposed candidates for this piece, Sutton was the only Democrat named for South Dakota.

Other prospects: state Rep. Erin Healy, state Sen. Susan Wismer

TENNESSEE

Incumbent Republican: None (Lamar Alexander announced his retirement)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: attorney James Mackler

Tennessee is one of only two states that has already locked in as an open seat, as Lamar Alexander already announced his retirement. Given that Tennessee has turned dark red over the past two decades, there is no lack of a Republican bench here, and the nominee that emerges from what promises to be a crowded GOP field will undoubtedly be formidable.

Given that the Democrats went for an “established name” in 2018 and got thumped soundly, Democrats might be well served to go the opposite direction in 2020. James Mackler, an attorney and veteran, seemed like an attractive potential opponent for Bob Corker in 2018. But when Corker retired, and former Gov. Phil Bredesen was lured into the race, Mackler withdrew his candidacy.

Mackler, however, made the call to run in 2020, and if he can raise money, he may well be as good as the blue team can get in Tennessee. And if the GOP primary disintegrates into an acrimonious mess? Mackler, from his perch as an outsider, may be well-suited to pounce on an unexpected opportunity.

Other prospects: Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke, state Sen. Jeff Yarbro

TEXAS

Incumbent Republican: John Cornyn (first elected: 2002)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: former Rep. Beto O’Rourke/former HUD Secretary Julian Castro

Yeah, we’re hedging here. Here is the logic: It seems extremely unlikely that both of these guys are going to run for president and still be contending for the Democratic nomination by the time 2019 ends. If they do, then head to the prospects down below, because Texas has the distinction of being one of the earliest filing deadlines in America (Senate candidates will most likely see a filing deadline sometime in December 2019).

O’Rourke already showed, in his high-profile run against Ted Cruz in 2018, that he is capable of being a vote-getter. You have to go all the way back to the 1990s, and longtime Democratic fixture John Sharp, to find a Democrat who won 48 percent of the vote statewide in Texas. Castro seems to have the campaign chops to run an amenable statewide campaign, as well. The only question with these two is whether or not they will still be pursuing national ambitions by the time it is time to declare one’s statewide ambitions for 2020. Interestingly, Castro’s twin brother (see below) has expressed some interest, but also seemed willing to defer to O’Rourke.

Other prospects: 2018 House nominee M.J. Hegar, Rep. Joaquin Castro

WEST VIRGINIA

Incumbent Republican: Shelley Moore Capito (first elected: 2014)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: former state Sen. Richard Ojeda

West Virginia is a state that can be a bit of a paradox politically. It was one of Donald Trump’s best states in the nation in 2016, but in that same election, a Democrat was elected governor (we’ll conveniently ignore that said governor switched to the GOP in 2017). Democrats also claimed another statewide race (state treasurer), and came within single digits in three other statewide races. Furthermore, of course, Joe Manchin held onto his Senate seat here in 2018. So, despite the hugely red lean here, it’s not impossible for Democrats to play.

And one has to say that, of all the prospects, Richard Ojeda might be the best prospect for the Democrats. Yes, he foolishly abandoned his seat in the state Senate for a quixotic (and decidedly abbreviated) run for the White House. But he got 44 percent of the vote in the worst Democratic performing U.S. House district. After a somewhat tepid start, he wound up being a decent fundraiser in his House race, and his name recognition is probably as high as any Democrat in the state.

Other prospects: former Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, state Rep. Michael Pushkin

WYOMING

Incumbent Republican: Mike Enzi (first elected: 1996)

“Top of the list” Democratic Challenger: former Gov. David Freudenthal

It’s been a minute or two since a Democrat represented the state of Wyoming in the Senate. And by “a minute,” I mean that the GOP has held both seats in the United States Senate since Gerald Ford was still in the White House. So, even as Wyoming is last in our journey through the GOP-held Senate seats, it is also probably safe to say that it is also least, in terms of Democratic prospects. After all, Democrats had arguably their best recruit in years for the Senate last year in the form of Gary Trauner, who almost claimed a House seat here for the Democrats in 2006. Trauner, paired against veteran Republican incumbent John Barrasso, won just 30 percent of the vote.

So could anyone make this seat even remotely competitive? Well, he’ll never do it, and he’d probably get beat by 20 even if he did, but only one Democrat has a legitimate run statewide in the past two decades, and that’s former Gov. Dave Freudenthal. As impossible as it might be to believe, Freudenthal won every county in the state in his 2006 re-election bid for governor. Could he do that in 2020? Heh … this is an exercise in optimistic speculation, dear readers, but let’s not get carried away here.