Want to keep up to date on Welsh politics? Sign up and get political news sent straight to your inbox Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice Invalid Email

The Labour Party has lost one third of its support in Wales in just over two years, a new opinion survey has confirmed.

Results of the latest quarterly YouGov poll for ITV Wales and the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University show that 36% (-2% since September) say they will support Labour in next May’s general election, 23% (no change) will vote Conservative, 18% will back Ukip (+1%), 11% (no change) Plaid Cymru, 5% (-1%) the Liberal Democrats, 5% (no change) the Greens and 2% (+1%) Others.

According to Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre, these figures would transfer into 28 seats for Labour (+2), eight for the Conservatives (no change), three for Plaid Cymru (no change) and one for the Liberal Democrats (-2).

Labour would win Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats, while the Conservatives would narrowly gain Brecon and Radnor from the Lib Dems.

Prof Scully said: "Labour are clearly still well ahead of the other parties in electoral support, and also in projected seat wins. But the drop in their support from our previous poll, while small in itself, adds to a steady trend since 2012.

In a YouGov poll in July 2012 Labour were on 54% in general election voting intention. The loss of fully one-third of that support between then and now has potentially serious consequences in what is expected to be a very close general election across the UK.

Labour’s electoral support in Wales is now no higher than it was in the May 2010 election. Two years ago, Ed Miliband could have counted on Wales to give him several seat gains; now the prospects for a Labour advance here look much more limited.

“But while Labour may have seen its support decline, no other party has made spectacular progress. The Conservatives’ support in Wales seems solid, and probably enough for them to hold most of their current Welsh seats next May. But they are not making significant further ground. UKIP have now established a significant base of support among the Welsh public. But this poll suggests that their forward momentum may, at least for now, have been checked; UKIP also have the problem of translating their broad support into concentrations in particular seats. Nor are Plaid Cymru moving forwards. So our poll suggests that we may be on course for a general election in which few seats actually change hands between the parties.”

In terms of voting intentions for the next National Assembly election in 2016, 35% (-1%) said they would vote Labour in the constituency section of the ballot, 22% (+1%) would vote Conservative, 19% (no change) would vote Plaid Cymru, 12% (no change) Ukip, 6% (no change) Liberal Democrats, 5% (+1%) Greens and 1% (no change) Others. On these figures, and assuming uniform national swings across Wales, only two constituency seats would change hands: Plaid Cymru would win Llanelli from Labour and the Liberal Democrats would win Cardiff Central from Labour.

Regional list voting intention were Labour 31% (no change), Conservatives 20% (-1%), Plaid Cymru 19% (+3%), Ukip 15% (-2%), Greens 7% (no change), Liberal Democrats 6% (+1%) and Others 2% (-1%).

Overall, these figures would see Labour win 28 seats, the Conservatives 12, Plaid Cymru 10, Ukip seven, Liberal Democrats two and Greens one.

* The poll had a sample of 1,131 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov on December 2 and 3.