Past Draft Day Trades Show Us the Way

Probably the most important part of any good mock draft (and the most franchise-affecting moves of the actual NFL Draft) is nailing your draft day trades. Walter from Walterfootball was the winner of our 2018 NFL Mock Draft Expert Contest, thanks largely to predicting the Bills would trade up for Josh Allen, and the Cards would trade up for Rosen.

Those picks, as well as Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson, were all franchise-altering draft day trades. But not all trades are for quarterbacks- Takk McKinley, David Njoku, Reuben Foster, Marcus Davenport, Tremaine Edmunds, and Jaire Alexander were all draft day trade targets that few saw coming.

Our job is to be one of the few. Identify patterns. Apply them to the 2019 NFL Draft class. Get our trade predictions in there early.

Looking at the 12 first round draft day trades that went down the past two years, we see that half of them were for QBs. After QB, it’s mostly been defense, with 2 pass rushers, 2 LBs, and a CB.

Moving past positions, it’s important to look at tiers. Watson was the last QB traded up for in the first round, and 40 picks went by before another QB was selected. Last year, Davenport was the last edge rusher taken in the first round, and another wasn’t drafted until 27 picks later.

Njoku, Foster, and Jaire were all the last players at their respective positions for 10 or more picks each.

So we are going to pay special attention to first round QBs, to defensive players, and to prospects who are at the end of their perceived pre-draft positional tiers.

From there, we identify teams with draft capital to spend, who select a few picks after where we believe the prospect’s value lies, and with a big need at the position in question. Using these criteria, I’ve identified 5 draft day trades that will happen. You can thank me five and a half months from now, when you’ve won all your mock draft contests.

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Predicting the 2019 NFL Draft Day Trades

Will Grier, QB WVU

Whether or not Justin Herbert declares, Will Grier has pushed himself up to the bottom of QB Tier 1. Of the teams who might make a play for him and be in range, I think Jacksonville is most likely to move up for Grier, with Denver, Oakland, Tampa, and Miami as alternatives. Jacksonville has the fewest needs across the rest of their roster, which should incentivize them to solve this one big problem this year. Grier probably should go around the top of the second round, but since he’s a QB he’ll most likely go top-10, and Jacksonville should end up with a high enough pick that they can afford to make a move up for him.

Deionte Thompson, S Alabama

Gruden prioritized defensive backs in his Tampa days, and recently jettisoned his starting Free Safety, leaving only Nelson and Gilchrist in the back end. They’ve been bad. Thompson is very good. He is also the only elite Safety in this class, in a tier of his own, which makes him a very alluring trade target. I firmly believe that Thompson to the Raiders will happen, possibly with their first pick. But if the Raiders end up going in another direction with their early pick, Gruden could then use some of his massive draft capital to move up from the Cowboys first rounder and continue building the team in his image.

Montez Sweat, OLB Mississippi State

I thought very, very hard about having the Raiders trade up for Sweat. The team that’s been most active during the season should be active again on draft day, and Gruden has made perfectly clear that he intends to try and find a pass rusher in this draft class. Instead I’m giving this prediction to GB, mostly because I think OAK picks Bosa #1 overall. I think this year especially, physical profiles and scheme fits will dictate when the edge rushers will come off the board, and that Sweat will be one of the last ones drafted from the second (non-Bosa) tier. GB has a serious need at pass rusher, and Sweat fits their physical profile nicely. Since they are the only team other than OAK with multiple first round picks, they will have the ammo and the opportunity to move up and grab their pass rusher.

Mack Wilson, ILB Alabama

Because Alabama always has such a great D-line, it can be hard to get an idea of how the Bama LBs will adapt to the pro game where the playing field will be more even. But Wilson really excels at aspects of the game away from the line of scrimmage, which is more easily projectable to the next level. I expect he won’t test incredibly well at the combine, but the rest of his game is developed enough to put him at the bottom of the top tier of LBs, just behind Devin White. Cincy is one of many teams who could really use a coverage LB, with PIT being the other, but CIN has the advantage of likely owning an earlier pick. Unless they decide to make a move for a QB upgrade (I think 2020 will be the year for that) I expect them to move up for the rangy Wilson.

Kaden Smith, TE Stanford

Noah Fant and Kaden Smith should both be first round TEs, and though others are getting hyped, I just think the gap between Smith and TE3 is pretty vast. While all my other predicted trades involve late first-round teams moving up into the early or middle parts of the round, there’s always a trade or two at the end of draft night, with a team picking early in the second making a move back into the first round. I think TEN will draft a pass rusher in the first (perhaps they frustrate OAK and GB and draft Sweat?) to compliment Harold Landry, and I can see them moving up from their second round pick (past HOU, who also has a need at the position) to grab a physically imposing pass catcher to add to their surprisingly underperforming group.