Philadelphia

IN this year’s first-grade classes, teachers might notice an unusual number of Kimberlys, Karens and Kevins. This follows an earlier bump for Alexes and Amandas, and other names that start with A. Why? One factor might be...the weather.

As part of our research on trends and how ideas catch on, my colleagues and I analyzed more than 125 years of data on the popularity of baby names. Many, many Jessicas, Jacobs, Rivers and even Maxxes.

We found that names that begin with K increased 9 percent after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. And names that start with A were 7 percent more common after Hurricane Andrew in 1992. It wasn’t that people named their babies after the storms. (In fact, fewer people named their children Katrina and Andrew after each respective hurricane.) Rather, it was similar sounding names that spiked after particular storms. Predicting cultural trends is of great interest to companies, consumers and cultural critics. Will a new song be a hit or a flop? Will turquoise be the new black? Will a particular public policy idea catch on or fizzle fast? There are big stakes — big rewards — in being able to accurately forecast cultural trends.

Predicting the future, however is notoriously hard to do. It’s easy to find examples of things that have caught on. Low-fat Greek yogurt. Tablet computers. “Fifty Shades of Grey.” But even “experts” have difficulty identifying hits before they take off. J. K. Rowling sent her first Harry Potter book to 12 publishing houses, all of which turned her down. Warner Brothers sank over $120 million into “The Adventures of Pluto Nash,” which took in less than $8 million at the box office. For every “futurist” who predicted the organic food movement, there were 10 who predicted that “mechanized hugging booths” will be the wave of the future.