An annual tradition over at Royals Review is when managing editor Max Rieper (who is an awesome dude) takes 30 fans, and lets them run a MLB team under semi-real world conditions to simulate baseball’s off-season. We use the real list of free agents, real salaries, real organizational approaches and real negotiation skills.

Over the course of a couple of days, my "job" was to engage the 29 other fan-GMs via email/slack about potential trades, engage with super-agent Max on all free agents and build the best 26-man roster possible.

Here are the ground rules:

We rewind to the end of the regular season. The assumption is your GM has resigned and been replaced. The new GM is free to set their own organizational philosophy.

We ditched the "budgets" this year in favor of "notes from the owners", a few guidelines from ownership that we’ll reveal when the simulation is over.

We’re not concerned with the 40 man roster.

Players with no-trade clauses cannot be traded (this includes players with 10-5 rights). Players with limited no-trade clauses can be traded.

Minor leaguers can be traded, but must be specified. No Players to be Named Later. Cash may be dealt, but the amount must be specified.

You are free to frontload or backload contracts, although player preferences are for contracts not to be backloaded. Anything ridiculous will not be accepted. You can offer player, club, mutual, and vesting options.

Top offer will typically be taken, although there may be exceptions if a player has a preference on where he wants to play (big market over small market; older vet may want to play for a "winner.")

There is no negotiation of contract extension or signing long term deals for non-free agents.

All transactions for the league can be seen here:

https://www.royalsreview.com/2019/11/3/20946669/the-2019-sb-nation-off-season-simulation-official-thread

A summary of Sim can be seen here:

https://www.royalsreview.com/2019/11/6/20950463/a-summary-of-the-2019-sb-nation-off-season-simulation

Personally, I tried to remain as realistic as possible on trades, who would be traded, who we would want in free agency and what price we would be willing to pay for said free agent. Some of the other GMs are actually fans of a different team than the one they are representing, therefore they have no allegiance to prospects and are willing trade just about anyone to create the best "fantasy baseball" team they can. That is fun, but it also creates more difficulty to acquiring talent, especially in free agency.

Some of the prices for free agents get crazy! For example, Bryce Harper got 13 years $515m from the Yankees last year. This year, Strasburg got 8 years $324m. It’s easy to spend fake money. For me, I had to stop bidding on a couple of guys that I liked because I didn’t think the prices remotely possible.

I was given an "Owners Note" at the beginning that basically said, "Don’t go over the luxury tax unless you have a damn good reason." I took that as signing Cole or comparable.

My personal objectives were to rebuild the bullpen, add a SP, figure out something long term for catcher, create playing time for younger guys and find longer term pieces by trading guys with 1 year left on their deal. Basically build around what we have.

I think I accomplished my goals for the most part. There was one very obvious mistake that you will see I made. Without further ado, here is our 2020 Houston Astros 26 man roster. Trade/transaction details below.

Offense

Bench

Starting Rotation

Bullpen

** Minor League Deal or Other Prospect **

How I Arrived At This Roster



Housekeeping items to begin the simulation –

Offer a Qualifying Offer to Cole Decline Chris Devenski’s option and send him into arbitration.

Transaction #1 – Astros trade Brandon Bielak (#10) and Tyler Ivey (#6) to Chicago White Sox for LHP Jace Fry and 3B Jake Burger (#17).

Overpay? Sure I can agree on that. But I think we can all agree we need a lefty in the pen. Jace Fry has fantastic spin rates and is controllable for 4 seasons. Jake Burger is a high upside prospect included to balance our some value. The number 11 overall draft pick in 2017 has been injured and really hasn’t played yet but it appears the injuries are behind him.

Transaction #2 – Astros trade Brad Peacock and Shawn Dubin (#23) to Blue Jays for Reese McGuire (#25)

This trade was completed to sure up the backup catcher role. Someone to compete with Stubbs for the role. A young left handed hitting catcher with potential, former first round pick.

The cost was Peacock (mostly a salary dump to get under the cap) and prospect without pedigree and further away from helping.

Transaction #3 – Astros trade Jake Marisnick and Rogelio Armentros to the Diamondbacks for Robbie Ray

Robbie Ray is exactly the type of pitcher I could see getting tremendously better with our coaching staff and was a target at the very start regardless of what free agency had to offer (which was insane, more to come). The initial deal here had Osuna included and Kevin Ginkel coming back. The guys over in AZ had some miscommunications amongst themselves and Ginkel was sent to the A’s in a different deal. It actually worked out better for me, the deal was revised and boom, now we have a LHP for our rotation. Only 1 year remaining but at 10m, we can handle it.

Armenteros is basically blocked and I don’t see a way for him to get into the rotation. Jake has 1 year left and is a 4th OFer who is expendable because we have Myles Straw.

Transaction #4 – Astros trade Roberto Osuna to the Nationals for RHP Sterling Sharp(#13), LHP Seth Romero (#12) and RHP Wil Crowe (#4)

Even in a simulated environment Roberto Osuna was a hot button. Many teams flat out refused to consider any deal with him include. Others saw the value but didn’t want to the PR issues and really only a few were willing to take it on. Budgetary reason were the main driver here, optics were part of it, as was the fact that he only appeared in 44 save situations. Our offense and rotation limit the save chances in HOU, so the cost was too much when we have (IMO) several guys that could close games for less cost.

The return was also pretty solid for 1 year of a closer. Wil Crowe is a high spin rate starter that is probably a year away and will be a 4/5 starter with 3 starter upside. Seth Romero was the #25 pick in 2017, he has had personality issues and injuries. Romero has the potential to be a 2/3 starter. Sterling Sharp had a bit of a down year but could be another 3/4 starter.

Transaction #5 – Astros trade Chris Devenksi and Drew Ferguson to the Pirates for 1B Mason Martin (#19) and RHP Cody Bolton (#13)

Devenski isn't what he used to be. Sorry. It’s true. He has 2 years of control left but I think it was time for a change of scenery plus its saved 2mm against the cap. Ferguson, while I personally like a lot, I don’t think will be much more than org filler maybe a 5th OF now that rosters are 26.

Cody Bolton had himself a healthy year across 2 levels. Sporting a combined 3.28 ERA in 101.2IP and 102k’s. He full on dominated A+ ball with 10 k/9, 0.859 WHIP, 1.61 ERA across 61.2IP. Took a step back in AA but that is to be expected. Mason Martin opened eyes this year, across 2 levels he had 35HRs, 4th most in all of MiLB. Still has some swing and miss in his game.

Transaction #6 – Cody Allen agrees to minor league deal with the Astros

Super solid bullpen piece from 2012-2017 and has fallen apart. Why not.

Transaction #7 – Brandon Morrow agrees to minor league deal with the Astros

Has always been an effective pitcher, just needs to stay healthy. Why not.

Transaction #8 – Astros trade Josh Reddick to the Red Sox for Matt Barnes

Full on salary dump with an ulterior motive, free up Tucker time. 13m a year was hard to find a taker for. Most wanted a prospect to go with, Boston went full rebuild basically and didn’t want a long term piece and had the budget for it. At this point, I needed to work on the MLB bullpen. Enter Matt Barnes with 2 year of control, projected arbitration number of $3m (net save 10m). He is a proven high leverage RP that we will give a shot at closing, however most likely a setup man to replace Harris.

Transaction #9 – Keon Broxton agrees to minor league deal with the Astros

Mostly org filler at this point but the potential has always been there.

Transaction #10 – Tyson Ross agrees to minor league deal with the Astros

A Cy Young candidate 2015, may never get healthy enough but worth a flyer.

Transaction #11 – Astros sign Robinson Chirinos to 2 year $11m deal

My target at C from the beginning of the simulation. I didn’t even put in an offer on Grandal who went for 6/150m to the ChiSox. The way he played last year is absolutely deserving of coming back, solid production all around. Also, makes Verlander happy to have his catcher back. Great mentor for Reese McGuire and Stubbs.

*Up to this point I think I am killing it! Checking things off the list, acquiring talent to fill holes getting solid returns to restock the team. I am the leading offer for free agents Will Harris (2/15m) and Gerrit Cole (6/220m), granted bidding really hadn’t hit fever pitch yet.

The next day….failure..

Harris bid went up to 2/16m, I went to 16.5, then it went to 18m. Realistically, Harris could get 9mm a year but I had already started to rebuild the bullpen and had gotten Matt Barnes. I decided to let him go to the Cards for 18m.

Gerrit Cole’s market heated up, he was up to 6/230. I went to 7/245m with opt outs after year 3 and 5. It was quickly countered to 7/250m. I went 7/252 and then it jumped to 260m. Meanwhile Strasbrug is at 6/195m, MadBaum is 5/120m, Wheeler is 5/122m. I go to 265m with a $20m player option for year 8. Next offer was 280m over 7. Trying to stay realistic, I let him go and turned my attention to the others.

Stephen Strasburg (8/324m Phillies) quickly went to 260 once Cole signed, so I passed. I offered MadBaum 5/125m but was told he most likely was going to stay in SF, but the offer was received. That quickly was countered, a little back and forth and he was at 6/144m with SF. I was in on Wheeler as well, went all the way to 5/137.5m and then numbers started to get crazy, ended up with 6/180m from the Yankees. I made a couple of bids on Keuchel (4/88m ChiSox), Hamels (3/64m Red Sox), Ryu (3/75m Mets).

The pitching market went nuts as you can see. So I decided that my rotation was going to be good enough to get us to the trade deadline with the lead in the AL West. And I moved on.

Many conversations were had with just about everyone about many different things. At this point my conversations with Baltimore got fairly serious about Trey Mancini. My 1st offer was Yuli, Paredes or Burger and Jack Mayfield. After a lot of back and forth we got to Yuli, Enoli and Cristian Javier for Trey Mancini. It came down to me finding playing time and money for Trey at 1st, which meant I needed to trade Yuli. Initial conversations had Yuli going in the deal to Baltimore, but then they didn’t want to have him so they would have to flip him for better prospects. So I asked if I replaced Yuli with other prospects if it would make things better. I had a deal in place for Yuli at this point and I moved forward with that.

Transaction #12 – Astros trade Yuli Gurriel and Aaron Sanchez to the Nationals for RHP Jackson Rutledge (#3), Jackson Tetreault (#24) and Koda Glover

Yuli was going to be replaced by Trey Mancini, Aaron Sanchez is not going pitch until after the break and I was told if he was non-tendered he wouldn’t accept my 2 year offer of 6.6m. Budget wise, I had to trade him. This deal would free up a lot of cap space. My old friends the Nationals came calling on both.

Jackson Rutledge their #3 prospect was the #17 overall pick last draft. Very solid 1st season as a pro, tons to like front line starter eventually. Jackson Tetreault, back of the rotation upside spot starter floor, has 3 solid pitches. Koda Glover, another young controllable bullpen piece, still just 26 with 3 years of control. Hasn’t stayed healthy but could be a setup/closer type if he can remain healthy. Has a big fastball and slider.

Once the trade is complete, Baltimore comes back online and I inform them that things have happened and I was ready to get the deal done. We just needed to agree on 1 more piece and then we were good to go. At this point, the "war room" had talked the GM out of the deal entirely and they wanted top top talent. Started with Javier, Rutledge and a 3rd piece. Josh James was asked for, Yordan at one point was brought up. I went as far as throwing Enoli and either Luis Santana or Jake Burger into the deal. Basically they had decided that acquiring prospect rankings was the right way to go for them. And since we have 1 top 100, who I wasn’t going to trade, they moved on. Eventually they secured a wildly unrealistic deal from the Pirates (who were managed by someone that is not a Pirates fan) that included their #3 (#57 overall), their #6 (18th overall selection in 2019), their #8 (the #9 2b prospect in baseball), their #10 (#22 overall selection in 2016) and their #26.

Now I have a hole at 1B and I begin to panic because we have 1 day left. I start a conversation with the D-Backs for Christian Walker, who was resistant to trade him. The GM for AZ had real life stuff come up and was unable to communicate for most of that 1 day. I didn’t really gain much traction with other teams.

Transaction #13 – Carlos Gonzalez agrees to minor league deal with the Astros

Long past the MVP types seasons but worth a flyer to see if he can DH

Transaction #14 – Mitch Moreland agrees to minor league deal with the Astros

Insurance. Capable of filling in if I can’t find someone

Transaction #15 – Aaron Loup agrees to minor league deal with the Astros

Loogy, injury risk potential piece for the bullpen with no risk.

Transaction #16 – Astros sign Jose Abreu to 4 years $65m deal

PANIC! Initially the market for Abreu was small. When I asked the agent what the market currently was it was 2/32m. My 1st offer was 3/42m. 14m per year, he will be gone when he is 35, not a huge drag on budget. Can play first but probably a better DH, he and rotate with Yordan (who better be learning 1b this offseason). The ChiSox then offered 3/50, I went to 51. All along super-agent max said he was likely to say in Chicago. As my night was wrapping up, most people and finished the objectives and I still didn’t have a 1B, fear of missing out won over and I offered 4/65m. OUCH!

The next morning I wake to a message from the D-backs, they would accept my offer for Walker. Too late. I tried to unwind the Abreu deal, tried to send him to Chicago for nothing, it wasn’t going to happen per the commish.

Transaction #17 – Zach Duke agrees to minor league deal with the Astros

Loogy, solid but unspectacular. Maybe we can help him get another year in.

Transaction #18 – Adeiny Hechavarria agrees to minor league deal with the Astros

AAA depth most likely, emergency SS when Correa gets hurt again.

Transaction #19 –Hector Rondon signs 1 year $1m deal

Wouldn’t sign a minor league deal. We have 26 spots now, at least we know him.

Conclusion





The offense next season will have a couple of new faces and higher expectations for some younger guys, but should produce at a very high level. The rotation will be solid assuming a bounce back from McCullers and an uptick in Robbie Ray production. It will absolutely be less of a force moving forward without Cole. The bullpen has question marks, specifically at closer. If our offense and rotation do what they are capable of doing the save chances will be limited. An open competition between James, Pressly, Glover, Barnes should net us someone capable of securing wins. Per streamers, this team will produce 54.9 WAR next season (I simply added the individual WAR together, not exact science).

While I ended up over the luxury tax line for 208m for the team, I am only slightly over at $214,730,477. The overage will cost 1.3m to Jim Crane. Next season we will drop back below the luxury tax line (depending on arbitration raises) when Brantley, Springer and Ray become free agents and 47.2m falls off the books.

What do you think of these 2020 Houston Astros? What might you have done differently? What would have done the same?