Clinton opponents face 'gut-check' time at 3rd debate

Heidi M. Przybyla | USA TODAY

Hillary Clinton looks increasingly like a general election candidate performing from a primary stage.

The challenges that come along with that, both for her and her Democratic competitors, will be clear at the party's third debate Saturday in New Hampshire.

Clinton, who's maintaining more than a 20-point lead in national polls over her nearest competitor, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, has focused less on mirroring his progressive positions — with the exception of a pledge Wednesday to raise taxes on the wealthy — and more on positioning herself for the general election.

With much of the 2016 spotlight focused on the GOP battle and Donald Trump's provocative statements and proposals (such as his recent call to temporarily ban non-citizen Muslims from entering the country), the debate is a chance for the Democrats to get some media exposure. Clinton and Sanders will be joined on stage by former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley.

The last debate, held in Iowa the day after the Paris terrorist attacks, was punctuated by hits on Clinton's foreign policy record, including her vote as a U.S. senator to authorize the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Now, the question is whether O'Malley and Sanders sharpen those attacks with polls showing the race largely stagnant since October.

"For Sanders and O'Malley it's a gut-check moment," said Dante Scala, a political expert at the University of New Hampshire. "Are they, in their hearts, fine with Hillary being the nominee," or do they want to escalate attacks that could hurt her in a general election, he said.

Additionally, for O'Malley, that route "might jeopardize his future in a Clinton administration," Scala added.

A RealClearPolitics average of polls over the past month gives Sanders a 5-point advantage in New Hampshire.

Yet there's a growing sense of inevitability about Clinton's candidacy. According to a recent CNN/WMUR survey of New Hampshire Democrats, about 60% said they think Clinton is most likely to win the primary there, up from 42% saying so in September. Seventy percent of respondents said she has the best chance to win the general election.

Sanders' conflict over going negative was on display this week as he yanked a digital ad portraying Clinton as a candidate of big banks and the wealthy, while sticking with another Facebook ad that contrasts their college affordability plans.

For Clinton, the goal Saturday is to defend her policies and record while avoiding harsh counterattacks that could turn off Sanders' supporters. Right now, 59% of them would be OK if Clinton wins, according to a Monmouth University Poll out this week.

Even in a "worst-case scenario" for Clinton where Sanders wins New Hampshire, her campaign would still be confident she could retain her front-runner status with wins in subsequent contests in South Carolina and Nevada, said Chris Galdieri, who teaches a course called The New Hampshire Primary at Saint Anselm College, the debate site.

"They would just never say that out loud," he said.

Nowhere is her message for a general election audience clearer than in her policy pronouncements in recent months, from a hawkish speech on Iran in September to her speech Tuesday in Minnesota, where she reiterated her view that the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, must be destroyed, not merely contained.

At the debate, her challenge is to maintain some distance from President Obama

National security is likely to be a key issue in the first Democratic debate since the San Bernardino, Calif., mass shooting, and the candidates will look to steal some headlines from the Republicans, whose debates have commanded far larger television audiences.

At the previous debate, Clinton's foreign policy experience, considered among her greatest strengths, became a source of criticism for O'Malley and Sanders, who highlighted her Iraq vote and involvement in the decision to intervene in Libya.

Since then, Clinton's outlined specific policy proposals to take on the Islamic State, which may shift the dynamic. Sanders has yet to offer detailed policy proposals and much of his campaign message is built around domestic issues like income inequality.

Even so, there are pitfalls for Clinton, including her explanation for the U.S. intervention in Libya when she was the nation's top diplomat, an increasing focus for both her Democratic and Republican critics.

Derek Chollet, a top Clinton adviser at the State Department, hinted at her talking points. "There's a lot of simplistic arguments," about what's gone wrong in Libya, he said, such has not intervening at all. "It's hard to see how that would have turned out well," he said.

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