Carly Fiorina is up and Rand Paul is down.

That's the shake-up on The Chase following the first Republican primary debate of the 2016 presidential campaign. The Chase is U.S. News' rankings of the 2016 candidates based on a compilation of polling data, media coverage, campaign organization and fundraising.



And since last Thursday's debate in Cleveland, Fiorina has seen a surge, lifting her into Tier 2 of the GOP candidates. Paul, who mounted an aggressive onstage attack against both Donald Trump and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, has fallen to Tier 3.

The reasoning lies in the data:



In the two Iowa polls released this week, Fiorina jumped to 7 and 10 percent. In the prior three Iowa polls, she had registered between 1 and 4 percent. Paul, the front-runner on The Chase 16 months ago, is down to 2 to 3 percent in Iowa. In the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling survey, Paul is now viewed negatively by 45 percent of caucusgoers, the worst of any candidate.

In New Hampshire, the Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University survey of the primary shows Fiorina up to 9 percent, good enough for fifth place. In the previous four polls, she had been between 1 and 3 percent. Paul, who sat atop polls in New Hampshire for much of 2014, has trailed off. He's at just 6 percent in the Herald/Pierce poll. But his collapse appears to have begun earlier in the summer, when he took a nosedive into single digits at the start of June.