Covid-19

Today China admits the novel coronavirus hasn’t peaked and some alarming news out of Iran.

Iran reports 4 deaths and up to at least 18 cases, with spread in several cities notably: Qom, Tehran, Babol, Arak, Isfahan, Rasht and other cities. This is basically what we are seeing in South Korea as well with mass infections related to explosive clusters around church groups.

With 4 fatalities in Iran, this means it must have widespread penetration there without any containment, with poorer than average screening. 4 deaths suggests at least 200 actual infections if we take the mortality rate of Covid-19 to heart.

This is not an epidemic, this is a pandemic. We know that with the Princess Diamond failed quarantine, Tokyo is under high-risk for a lack of containment. Asia and the Middle East are two continents, which means the outbreak has reached pandemic levels of infection.

According to the Iranian health ministry official Minou Mohrez, “it’s possible that it exists in all cities in Iran,” she said.

You can have travel bans on China, but can you also have travel bans on South Korea, Japan and Iran, among others simultaneously? Is social distancing really effective? We have to alter our perception of what we are dealing with. February 21st is a new recognition of an outbreak in other countries for Covid-19, after China pretending cases were going down.

The coronavirus outbreak in China has not yet reached its peak, state television quoted a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party as saying on Friday. China’s confusion with numbers is likely a form of misinformation to augment social stability and less economic fears locally.

Japan’s situation may be much more serious than what we are seeing in Iran, but South Korea’s spread appears much faster, but that’s likely due to better screening.

China’s cases in the Hubei Province has also penetrated its prison system. People from Lebanon and Canada who were in Iran have been tested positive. The WHO says the window of opportunity might be closing. The outbreak outside of China are not linked to Wuhan.

Countries without adequate screening have little ability to contain the virus, we must count Japan and Iran on that list. As the outbreak evolves, it becomes more difficult to screen and contain the virus locally.

South Korea has confirmed an additional 48 cases of the coronavirus, bringing the total number of infections nationwide to 204. Verified cases outside of China is beginning to spike and accelerate, meaning the new coronavirus will definitely be with us in March.

The economic impact of each month the virus is active runs into the $Billions. The window of opportunity is narrowing and the WHO realistically will be able to do little, even as the CDC remains vigilant in the U.S. It’s likely Canada with its lax policies could be next for an outbreak.

It’s foreseeable covid-19 being active in most global cities by May may just become the new normal if the outbreak continues its spread according to its R0 of nearly 3.

Update: 2pm Friday February 21st, the outbreak has also taken hold in Northern Italy with 16 cases.