Posted January 11, 2012 by ogbaysean in 2011 SF 49ers. 17 Comments

It sure was satisfying to see tools Jim Schwartz & Ndamukong Suh bounced from the playoffs by Drew Brees’ high flying offense. But by the same token, I don’t welcome the New Orleans Saints to Candlestick at all. In my humble opinion, I think the Saints are the best team in the NFL when they’re executing. They are an unstoppable force.

The 49ers should be patting themselves on the back for taking care of business during the regular season. Earning the #2 seed is already proving to be the difference-maker in this game. If this match-up was to be played in the Louisiana Superdome, then the 49ers would almost certainly lose. But its not. There hasn’t been a playoff game at The Stick in a decade. Fans will be rabid and you can bet your bottom dollar that Justin Smith & Company are ready to bring the noise too.

Mr. Brees, you’ve been warned. The 49ers are an immovable object. Proceed with caution because you’re walking into a shitstorm. Pardon my Cajun French.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+4)

What do you get when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? You get the irresistible force paradox 1st game of the NFL’s Divisional Playoffs. Both teams went 13-3 in the regular season by vastly different M.O.’s: a dynamic offense versus a dominating defense. We’re often told that the NFL is a quarterback’s league. But we’re also told that defense wins championships. Well who wins then?! Patience, my friends. Patience.

There are two plausible scenarios:

a) The 49ers win behind gritty defense and an effective run-first offense. Alex Smith will limit his mistakes as he has all year long but also does nothing to “wow” the national audience. The steward of the west coast offense does nothing to silence his naysayers.

b) The 49ers lose. They fall behind early and fail to pick up any ground. ESPN analysts high-five each other in the process with echos of “I told you so” in the background. Your friends point and laugh after you’ve convinced yourself “this is the year.”

Sub-Plot: #11 QB Alex Smith

This is a tall order for any team let alone the 49ers, a team absent from the playoffs since 2002. And if you think about it, the 49ers have come to the most important fork in the road of the past decade. Of course it surrounds the play of Alex Smith.

At this point, it’s hard not to root for Alex. He’s shown flashes of brilliance and instances of incompetence. He is our Jonathan Sanchez, except he hasn’t thrown his no-hitter yet. “The Catch” was 30 years ago yesterday, can Alex rekindle some of that magic? This is a big spot for Alex. Can he throw for 250+ yards? Can he outscore Drew Brees? Can he win? If not, is he worth a contract extension? Saturday will be quite telling.

Key to the Game: Constant Pressure

Similar to Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees has the ability to pick apart a defense when blitzed. Which is why the 49ers are a team best suited to have defensive success against the Saints. We all know about Defensive Player of the Year candidate Justin Smith, but left defensive end Ray McDonald is a valuable asset too. Ranked as the 4th best 3-4 defensive end according to ProFootballFocus, McDonald will be relied upon to provide consistent pressure on Brees to spell Justin Smith’s double teams.

Being that the Saints pass 60% of the time on offense and 49ers are the #1 defense against the run, we can expect to see Brees dropping back quite often. The X-Factor will be OLB Aldon Smith. Mainly a sack specialist on passing downs, Smith should see even more snaps on Saturday. The 49ers struck gold with Aldon Smith as he amassed 14 sacks on the year and was 2nd in the league with QB pressures. The kid is is 22 and has gotten stronger as the season has gone on. Release the Kraken.

The Saints Offense is Excellent, but…

Nobody is talking about the Saints on defense. Putting it nicely, they are bad. It’s a common misconception that the Saints like to get into shootouts. When Saints’ opponents score 20+ points, they are 26-31 while Drew Brees is quarterback. And the Saints scored 20+ in 46 of those games. To top it all off, the 49ers have scored 20+ in every home game this year. So you see, the Saints need to execute on defense perhaps even more than on offense.

Kendall Hunter & Vernon Davis need to have huge roles for the 49ers to be successful. Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams likes to dial up the blitz early and often. Alex Smith can expect to see exotic blitz packages. The kryptonite to a great blitz is an even better screen pass. Kendall Hunter is in the Darren Sproles mold. Use the kid. He’s a burner. Vernon Davis is known for his blocking ability, but should he release into the flats every so often, it will take a lot for the Saints 24th ranked defense to stop a 6’3” tight end with 4.38 speed.

“Mama, there goes that man!” -Golden State Warrior Head Coach Mark Jackson

Blueprint to Beat the Saints

The 49ers need to run a 2-Deep defensive scheme. The Saints offense goes as TE Jimmy Graham and RB Darren Sproles do. Put Patrick Willis on Graham and NaVarro Bowman on Sproles. If they can contain these two and force someone else to beat them, then the 49ers are looking alright. But they’re not out of the woods yet. Carlos Rogers needs to have a hell of a game against WR Marques Colston. The Achilles Heal could prove to be Tarell Brown D-ing up Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson. Both are freaky fast and will be running streaks all game, thus making Brown a liability. Whatever, lets cut to the chase.

The 49ers are going to win a nailbiter.

All week long the 49ers have been written off. We’re in it, might as well win it. Who dat? Screw dat. I think the 49ers will be in Brees’ face all day. He is undoubtedly a top-3 QB, but the 49ers force turnovers better than any other team in the NFL (+26 ratio). If they can force some turnovers like they have all season, I like the 49ers’ chances.

The Saints have a tremendous offensive line that starts with two Pro Bowl guards: Carl Nicks & Jahri Evans. The 49er defense has its work cut out for them for sure. But Brees can get sloppy and make mistakes by trying to force something. Hit somebody early in the game. Make a statement.

Final Prediction: 24-23 Niners

I said it. Deal with it. The Saints are not the same team on the road, let alone the West Coast. Remember last year against the Seahawks? They average 23 points on the road and are built for the dome. This is going to be the best game of the weekend regardless. I’m getting all giddy just thinking about it. I want to hit someone.

Besides, this is Jim Harbaugh’s lucky score:

Who’s got it better than us?! NOBODY!

Let’s do this. Shock the world, baybe.

