Rielly’s Absence will likely stretch into the home stretch of the season into Mid-March

Today was an extremely eventful day within the Toronto Maple Leafs community. At around 12:30 PM this morning, Leafs fan received the news that had long been rumoured to be in the works since Swedens Bronze Medal at the 2020 World Junior Championships in Ostrava, Czechia.

The mood of fans across social media immediately shifted, as an obvious excitement swelled across platforms regarding the recall of the best Marlies prospect since William Nylander in 2015–16. Meanwhile, while fans across Twitter were quick to point to new possibilities for the Leafs defence core that looked utterly shellshocked during their Sunday Night Hometown Hockey game against the surging Florida Panthers, the real bombshell news of the day was soon to come, and just two short hours later, LeafsPR dropped a pair of tweets that may come to define the Toronto Maple Leafs 2019–20 season. Morgan Rielly had fractured his foot.

With the injury, the Leafs undoubtedly lose their #1 Defencemen for a significant stretch of time, just as several other teams surrounding them in the standings including the aforementioned Florida Panthers and the flaming hot Tampa Bay Lightning go on their own runs as they catch up to and surpass the Maple Leafs. Make no mistake about it, Morgan Rielly is exceptionally important to this Maple Leafs team. His underlying numbers may have taken a step back from where they were last season (his relative xG and Corsi For Percentage numbers have declined somewhat sharply from where they were last season, though it is worth bearing in mind that his defense partners to this point have arguably been worse on the defensive side of the puck than his last partner Ron Hainsey, which really says something about Cody Ceci and Tyson Barrie’s defensive play) but Rielly nonetheless is a key contributor to this team. Even while he has spent the majority of the season on the now rarely-used 2nd Powerplay Unit, Rielly has still maintained a 48 point pace over 82 games, and is the Leafs Leader in xGF/60, clearly showing that he still is the engine that drives the Leafs puck-moving offence from the backend.

Rielly leads all Leafs defencemen with 2.57 xGF/60 at 5v5 on the season (minimum 100 min, Data from NaturalStatTrick.com)

So where do we go from here?

With Rielly and Jake Muzzin nursing their fractured feet at home on LTIR, the Leafs are left with a few options going forward. As it stands right now, the Leafs look like they’ll be going into their Tuesday night game against the New Jersey Devils with a less than flattering defensive core:

There are a few things that can be done to try to either mitigate the damage or outright clean up the mess or that will be the Maple Leafs defence for at a minimum of six days and three games until January 19th, which marks the Maple Leafs bye week and the NHL All-Star Weekend festivities.

Stand Pat and Pray for the Best

The least exciting yet most frightening of our options, the Leafs could go at it with a top defensive pair nicknamed affectionately as the DermottHollogist pair, one that has familiarity from their days with the Marlies, and has also played together this year in limited minutes, putting together some above-average numbers against moderate to good competition (though certainly not the same level as Rielly or Muzzin). The pair has driven play moderately well both in terms of possessing the puck and driving dangerous chances while on the ice, but is likely not the players you’d want eating significant minutes for the Leafs during an important part of their schedule.

In limited numbers, the pair has been above break-even this year, though not against elite competition (via NaturalStatTrick.com)

To round out the defence, the other pairs would likely break down with a second pairing of Sandin and Barrie, which could be a real wild card given Sandin’s rawness against NHL opponents and Barrie’s own defensive struggles. The pair could be an offensive firewagon though, as the pair rank second and first respectively in CF/60 amongst Leafs defencemen, bearing in mind that Sandin has played only six games under an entirely different coach.

Their third pairing gets a little bit dicey in this scenario, as what was supposed to be the temporary pairing of Martin Marincin (oh boy) and Cody Ceci (oooooooooh boy) could be headed towards a long and ideally fruitful relationship with one another. Ceci really drags this pair down particularly, as he ranks dead last amongst Leafs defencemen in Corsi For %, Fenwick For %, and second-last in Expected Goal %, leading only, surprisingly, Jake Muzzin amongst Leafs defencemen. Martin Marincin, for all his warts, remains an astonishingly effective player once again this season despite the eye test saying otherwise, grading out as above average based on his relative CF%, and FF%, though he grades out second-worst, again ahead of only Jake Muzzin, in xGF%rel due in large part due to his struggles with the puck on his stick and offensive capabilities. These aren’t the prettiest pairs, and as they’ve been all year could be a real adventure in the Maple Leafs third of the ice, to say the least, but it might just be the most feasible option if the Leafs don’t feel the need to adjust their defensive core at this time.

2. Make a Trade For a Defencemen

Last weekend, on Saturday Night Headlines, Elliotte Friedman linked the Leafs to one particularly intriguing name (3:33 in the video linked) in the San Jose Sharks pending UFA LHD Brendan Dillon to the Maple Leafs. The 18–19 season was somewhat of a coming-out party for the now 29-year-old, as he both controlled play exceptionally well based on his 2nd ranked CF% on the team at a superb 57%, and also defended the dangerous areas of the ice well, highlighted by his 2nd best ranked xGA/60 on the Sharks last year, amounting to a sparkling 58.77% xGF%. This year, however, has certainly been a different story for Dillon. Just as the Sharks themselves have taken a major step back and appear to be headed towards giving the Senators a top 10 or even perhaps top 5 pick, so too have several of the Sharks top performers from last season, including Dillon. While he still ranks second amongst Sharks defencemen with a much more pedestrian 51% CF%, his xGF%, particularly his offensive abilities, have taken a far greater step back, as he grades out below break-even with a 49% xGF% marker, though his xGA/60 still grades out as the best amongst regular defencemen on the team.

Making a move for a defenceman like Dillon, particularly with his expiring contract, isn’t something the Leafs likely would have wanted to do given Kyle Dubas’ well-documented aversion to the rental market, but they may have no choice given their present circumstances and their lack of proven top-4 defencemen at this point in time. What is worth bearing in mind however could be the cost of an acquisition such as this one. The price for what still ultimately amounts to one of the Sharks better defencemen likely wouldn’t be cheap, even if the Sharks were never likely to retain him past this season in the first place. It's worth remembering that the Leafs don’t have their first-round pick already this season, and likely don’t want to move out all of their highest picks, even with a gluttony of 7th rounders at their disposal. Could this be where the Leafs find their match with a long-rumored Jeremy Bracco trade? Would Bracco as a headliner even get the Leafs a marginal way towards a deal for a defenceman such as Dillon? It's probably unlikely, and the Leafs probably are best off not trying to dive too deep into their already thin pool of prospects at this point in time. So what other options could the Leafs have at their disposal?

3. Call up Liljegren!

Of course, this might be the most feasible option that doesn’t involve spending assets, and could potentially be the most fun of the three as well. Timothy Liljegren seems to fly under the radar a tad amongst Leafs fans because of the glowing beacon of hope that Rasmus Sandin has become, in no small part due to his dominant WJC performance last month. But Timothy Liljegren is no slouch himself:

Liljegren has been having himself a particularly strong season on the Marlies this year and is even outproducing Travis Dermott by points per game at a younger age and the same Draft+ year.

Also worth noting, gosh Rasmus Sandin is good

Timothy Liljegren has been the Marlies #1 Defencemen for about a year at this point, playing in all situations, eating heavy minutes, and overall being one of the Marlies most relied upon defencemen despite being just 20(!) years old. While it's unclear what he may become at the NHL level due to a lack of, well, games at the NHL level, it isn’t a stretch to think that Liljegren could step in today and be one of the Maple Leafs top six defencemen, even with Muzzin and Rielly healthy and in the Leafs lineup. Without them, however, calling up Liljegren should be a priority for the Leafs if they opt not to make a move for a defender from outside of the organization, potentially to replace the much-maligned Cody Ceci. Finding a new home for Ceci may present another challenge in and amongst itself as it is unclear as of now where Dubas and Co. could send Ceci to create an opening for ‘Timoth’ as former Leafs Assistant GM Mark Hunter once referred to him.

Ultimately, right now, the Maple Leafs have a lot of question marks on their blue line with their two key losses in quick succession of Jake Muzzin and Morgan Rielly. Others will likely need to step up in their place if the Leafs want to remain in the hunt for home ice come April (assuming that they’re even in the mix for a playoff spot then), though at this point dreams of catching Boston and Tampa may indeed be just that given the two team’s play of late. The Leafs may have some internal options, either in terms of rearranging their defensive pairs or looking to AHL players such as Liljegren, or can look externally to see if they can find a fit to mitigate the black hole that now appears to be their Left Side defence. Either way, the next two months will be a tough road ahead, and the Maple Leafs will surely be looking for answers as the heart of the season quickly approaches.