Today’s NYT has what looks like a pretty pessimistic assessment. While my predictions are worth just what you are paying for them here, my sense has been the opposite. I think a major health care bill is more likely than not to pass.

After what she managed to get her caucus to do last year, I would never, ever bet against the Speaker on a vote. And she is looking pretty determined on this one.

Keep in mind that it is not in the interest of the lawmakers who hold the key votes to show any flexibility at this point. The real movement comes at the very last minute. We’ve seen this again and again and again. Obama himself will have to do some arm-twisting — which means we may see some scenes like this one.

But until a vote has been scheduled, and we are within 48 hours of seeing it happen, take anything you hear from anyone on Capitol Hill with a full box of salt.