The EU's chief Brexit negotiator is no longer negotiating anything — and yet Michel Barnier is still flying around Europe, giving speeches on the bloc's future and meeting national leaders who will soon be nominating the next European Commission president.

Under the guise of maintaining EU27 unity and continuing his consultations, Barnier, a veteran French statesman and two-time European commissioner, is conducting a not-so-subtle shadow campaign for the EU's top job — a post he has long coveted and which may soon be within his grasp.

On Tuesday, Barnier was on his way to Croatia, for a meeting with Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and other national officials. That followed a speech on Monday evening at the Technical University in Munich. His choice of Bavaria looked like a particularly brazen incursion onto the home turf of Manfred Weber, the German MEP who is the nominee for Commission president of center-right European People's Party (EPP) — Barnier's own political family.

At one point, describing what the EU must do to avoid losing more ground to far-right populists, Barnier seemed to slip and admit what he's actually up to. "What I tried to do in my speech ... to engage citizens in the public debate all around this campaign ..."

He caught himself. For a split second, he froze. "I am not a candidate," he said, "but I've tried to take part, as my role, in my responsibilities, to take part and say what I think."

"I am not engaged in politics to be a spectator, huh? We have to be actors" — Michel Barnier

Denials aside, Barnier — who ran unsuccessfully for the EPP nomination in 2014 against Jean-Claude Juncker — is clearly positioning himself as a potential compromise pick for Commission president.

His pitch: He's the man who solidified EU27 unity in the face of the Brexit threat, a conservative who nonetheless has built strong relationships with EU leaders across all political parties. And he's a veteran public servant who has been on the front lines in the battle against far-right populism and Euroskepticism.

His rhetoric is not merely that of a concerned citizen — but of a campaigner. In Munich, his formal speech focused heavily on Brexit, but then shifted to the four pillars that he says are crucial to the EU's future: a "green" new deal; migration; the economy, especially confronting technological upheaval; and defense and security.

"If we act alone, we are out of the table," he told the audience in Munich. "We become definitively spectators of our future, our own destiny. And I am not engaged in politics to be a spectator, huh? We have to be actors."

Last Thursday, as Weber and three other leading "lead candidates" for the Commission presidency were on a stage for a candidates' debate in Florence, Italy, Barnier was in Valletta. There, he met with Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat, one of Europe's leading socialists, as well as with national legislators. Barnier also paid a visit to the country's largest port, ostensibly to illustrate the value of the EU's customs union.

Three days earlier, as five lead candidates were doing battle in POLITICO's election debate in Maastricht, Barnier was on his own stage, delivering a major speech at the Catholic University in Leuven, Belgium. He barely touched on Brexit but focused instead on his optimistic and ambitious view of the EU's major priorities in the years ahead. The Leuven event was arranged partly with the help of Joseph Daul, the head of the EPP, who is a patron of Weber, but who also remains close to Barnier.

Barnier and his coterie of high-powered advisers — Commission insiders he has grown close to, as well as loyal lieutenants who served with him in his various posts over the years — are betting that the upcoming European Parliament election will yield the most fragmented result in the bloc's history. If no party can claim a categorical victory, it will be far easier for the 28 heads of state and government on the European Council to set aside the Spitzenkandidat or "lead candidate" system that many of them dislike.

"He is not going to say 'no' if the Council puts his name on the table, but he clearly wants to be sought out," a Commission official close to Barnier said. "He could be the man of the situation."

'Breach of contract'

Barnier has not publicly criticized Weber, who is regarded even by many EPP loyalists as a lackluster candidate.

On the contrary, he has praised Weber's campaign and offered to stump on his behalf. But since the Bavarian MEP clinched the EPP's nomination in Helsinki last fall, Barnier has not been present at major Weber events. Instead, the Frenchman seems to be enjoying the freedom of being his own non-candidate. He has enjoyed high-profile appearances before large audiences, with his travel paid for by the Commission as part of his official Brexit duties.

Barnier notably avoids any public praise for the "lead candidate" process, which he once embraced as improving democracy in the EU. And Weber and his allies clearly see a threat.

Elmar Brok, a veteran German MEP, criticized Barnier for interfering in the race.

“In the past, you would’ve said, 'This is not the refined English manner,'" Brok told the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, using a German idiom that made his displeasure at Barnier's behavior clear. Of Weber, Brok added, “He’s our man — no one else is.”

Brok also demanded that EU leaders respect the lead candidate system. “As in 2014, we want to take the election of the Commission president out of the backrooms,” he said, adding: “The Council should take good care not to nominate someone else ... That would be a breach of contract.”

The Spitzenkandidat system, used just once before in the selection of Juncker in 2014, envisions that the Council put forward the nominee of the party that wins the most seats in the European Parliament election. But the Council has already said that legally it cannot be bound by the process, despite a resolution in Parliament insisting it be respected.

A senior EU official reiterated the Council's position on Tuesday, and referenced a discussion among EU leaders last year. "There was agreement that the European Council cannot guarantee in advance that it will propose one of the lead candidates for president of the European Commission," the official quoted Council President Donald Tusk as saying at the time. "There is no automaticity in this process."

The main liberal party, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, has also turned against the process, which it says unfairly benefits the EPP. ALDE has accused the conservatives of breaking an agreement to allow transnational candidate lists, which would have made a pan-European campaign possible. Instead, the Parliament election remains a series of 28 national contests, and so the liberals have refused to put forward a single nominee.

EU leaders will gather for a summit in Sibiu, Romania, on Thursday where Tusk will officially kick off the process by which they must fill nearly all of the EU's top jobs in the coming weeks.

"He also has the advantage of being more European than French. He's become a European persona" — French presidential adviser, on Barnier

He will ask the prime ministers and presidents to make a quick check of their diaries to be sure there is no obstacle to calling an extraordinary dinner-summit on May 28, two days after the election. And Tusk will tell them that if any around the table harbor private aspirations for a senior EU position, the time has arrived to make those intentions known.

Tusk will also remind them that it is tradition — not the EU treaties — that impels him to seek a unanimous outcome if possible, but that by law only a qualified majority is required to make a nomination. Juncker, for example, was selected over the objections of Britain and Hungary. In other words, no individual country has a veto. So, if any leader has a demand they regard as non-negotiable that should be made known — but also perhaps first rethought.

In 2014, leaders held four summits in May, June, July and August before settling on a decision. A senior EU official said Tusk had set an ambitious target of reaching a deal by the end of June, and that it would likely take longer.

Never Weber

For Barnier and his supporters, a path would most clearly open up if other leaders join French President Emmanuel Macron in adopting a "Never Weber" posture.

Macron, who is looking to create a new centrist-liberal force in Brussels, has already signaled through his advisers that he will strongly oppose the EPP's lead candidate, and it would take just a few other leaders, particularly liberals and socialists, siding with him at the special summit in late May to effectively kill Weber's chances.

According to projections by POLITICO and other polls, the EPP is once again expected to be the largest party in Parliament, giving it — according to the Spitzenkandidat process — first claim to the Commission presidency. But the EPP and the Party of European Socialists (PES), long the controlling forces in Brussels, are both expected to lose seats, as voters continue to show disdain toward mainstream parties. And Macron, who ran his own campaign as an independent, feels no allegiance to the traditional forces.

"To say that one party is going to decide doesn't make sense," a French presidential adviser said during a recent visit to Brussels. "A French person cannot vote for Weber." The adviser said Barnier could present a compromise. "After the Brexit mission, he is widely known," the adviser said. "He also has the advantage of being more European than French. He's become a European persona."

Macron has not yet indicated if he would accept Barnier as a compromise, though it could prove difficult for Macron to object to such a proposal, given that Barnier is French.

The EU's Brexit negotiator, however, could face a number of other obstacles.

Like Weber, and like Frans Timmermans, the Commission first vice president and PES nominee, Barnier has never been a head of state or government — which for decades has been an unofficial criterion for Commission presidents. Barnier, at 68, is also nearly four years older than Juncker — at a time when many pro-EU voices are clamoring loudly for a younger, more energetic figure at the top. As a man from Western Europe, he's hardly a diversity candidate.

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who at 32 is the EU's youngest national leader and is a member of the EPP, has endorsed Weber. But discussing the EU's future in a recent interview with Die Presse, Kurz did not specifically demand Weber's appointment. Instead, he said, what's most needed is "generational change at the top." Weber is 46.

On Monday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a member of the EPP, put another potential obstacle in Weber’s path, saying he would no longer support him, in part because of the broader rift that led the EPP to suspend Orbán's Fidesz party.

Brexit Backstop

Another unpredictable variable is Brexit, which is not yet finished business.

In what would be a deeply ironic twist, Barnier's prospects could get a boost from the United Kingdom, which was supposed to have left the EU by now but has been forced by internal political divisions to delay its departure. As a continued EU member it maintains a say in the decision, if it wants one.

The Council's nomination is made by qualified majority — a calculation that gives Britain, the bloc's third-largest country by population, potentially heavy sway provided it does not abstain. While some EU officials and diplomats said they expect the U.K. to stay out of the process, one senior official said no firm commitment has been sought nor has one been given. Legally, Britain would have every right to vote.

Barnier also trumpets his success in maintaining EU27 unity, suggesting it could be an asset for whatever comes next.

Some analysts say that elevating Barnier to the Commission presidency could be London's best guarantee that the EU will live up to all of its commitments in the Withdrawal Agreement it negotiated with Brussels. As chief architect of the accord, Barnier has a strong personal vested interest in its success. A U.K. diplomat said it is not yet clear if the British government would participate in the deliberations over the EU's future leadership but that the potential benefits of a Barnier presidency are indeed a matter of discussion among officials.

In the meantime, the EU's Brexit team has little to do but watch and wait while U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May negotiates with her Labour Party counterpart, Jeremy Corbyn, on a potential deal.

On his unofficial campaign trail, Barnier uses his work on Brexit to point out that he is a close student of the populist threats that the EU is facing, not just in Britain but across the Continent.

"During the last two or three years, obviously I spent my time to manage these extraordinary and complex negotiations, but I took some time to try to understand and to listen and to understand why 52 percent of the British citizens voted against Europe," Barnier said in Munich.

"It is important to take this time because this fear, this opposition to Europe, is exactly the same in many of our regions ... in Europe. In France. In Belgium. In Italy."

Barnier also trumpets his success in maintaining EU27 unity, suggesting it could be an asset for whatever comes next.

"I made three tours of each capital for the last two years," Barnier said in Munich. "That means we have built this unity, which is not given by chance, by this dialogue, by this respect, listening to everybody and finding the common line for the negotiations."

"And I think this method," he added, "could be used in the future for some other challenges."

Rym Momtaz, Nicholas Vinocur and Zia Weise contributed reporting.