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In the absence of such a plan, opponents have been given an open field to rant on about a carbon tax as a “tax on everything” that would drive up prices for “hard-working families,” etc etc. Against such a self-interested message the distant, uncertain prospect of saving the planet cannot hope to compete. The only way to bring Canadians on board is if they can be persuaded it won’t cost them a thing.

Is that possible? Well, it’s not impossible. While a carbon tax, like any tax, would be expected to reduce national output, other things being equal, if it were offset by equivalent (or deeper!) cuts in personal and corporate income taxes the impact could well be negligible — as a report by the Parliamentary Budget Office in fact projected earlier this year.

Photo by John Woods/The Canadian Press

But Canadians don’t care what it means for the economy at large. They want to know what’s in it for them. So the greater likelihood is that the revenues will be returned, not via productivity-enhancing cuts in tax rates, but a lump-sum rebate of some kind. Would that be enough to ensure, as a report by the lobby group Canadians for Clean Prosperity claimed last month, “the vast majority” of families would get more money back than they paid in carbon taxes?

Probably not. (Again it’s not impossible: it depends how rich you make the cheques.) But that’s not really the question. Critics of the CCP report pointed out its calculations assumed the cost of any carbon tax collected on corporations would not be passed on to families, when in fact they would be. They’re right, of course: ultimately, all taxes are paid by people. But that’s as true of any alternatives to a carbon tax.