An Open Letter From a Scientist to Cynical Friends,

The climate is changing. It will not return to anything we grew up with, ever. If we fail to slow and eventually stop our emissions in the next 30 years it is more likely than not (greater than 50 percent chance) that the progress in our now global civilization will collapse into chaos, conflict and a few nuclei of the powerful fighting over the scraps. With nuclear capability, that fight may be very short. The Planet Experts aren’t doomsday preachers, cherry picking data to support an unreasonable paranoia. We are collectors of evidence that has led to the inescapable conclusion that fundamental planet systems are impacted by human enterprise.

Population and consumption are outstripping the planet’s ability to provide basic resources and services. Actual planetary boundaries of these interconnected planet systems are being irrevocably breeched. Political systems and economies need time and motivation to act and, after that, time to take effect. That is why COP21 is critical in establishing firm international commitments.

If we don’t start now, there is little chance that we can get the train slowed in 30 years. We haven’t seen 2℃ of change in 10,000 years. We haven’t seen 3℃ in hundreds of thousands of years and 4℃ of change in tens of millions of years. Right now, with business as usual we are headed for just under 3℃, but our emissions are growing exponentially as developing nations come on line. More than 50 percent of our greenhouse emissions have been released since 1970. Another 30 years of this expansion without applying sustainable technology will easily drive us past 4℃, 5℃ or even 6℃ (multiply those numbers by 1.8 for degrees in Fahrenheit).

We can put our heads in the sand. We can rationalize inaction with the thought, “I’ll be dead by then.” We can also cynically pass it on to our children to solve, but there is the fact that what we may be passing on is a swamped lifeboat that is beyond repair. The question I am raising is, Is this how we became civilized in the first place? Are these attitudes what brought us out of the savannas and caves of our past or was it altruism, communication and cooperation to form a sustainable future for our offspring and a prosperous present for ourselves?

Sincerely,

W. Douglas Smith