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Without Jordan Staal, Joakim Nordstrom has shown virtually no signs that he can be a capable NHL forward.

Yet thanks to an explosive 2015-16 winter alongside the Hurricanes’ best center, the 24-year-old Nordstrom is entering the 2016-17 season projected to be not just a NHL forward, but a top-nine forward.

“When we acquired ‘Nordy’ from Chicago with (Kris Versteeg), Nordy was a bit of an unknown commodity,” said coach Bill Peters in late July. “But Nordy is a real good player and we knew that.”

But is Nordstrom, affectionate nickname and high praise aside, actually a good player? That analysis requires something of a partisan view.

With Staal

When slotted alongside the Hurricanes’ best two-way forward as well as another solid conservative winger in Andrej Nestrasil, Nordstrom was undeniably a serviceable offensive producer and excellent defensive stalwart.

Both his box score numbers and possession statistics show it:

Rates with both Nordstrom and Staal on-ice (743 minutes)

*Percentile based off 678 NHL players with at least 200 minutes played. For Goals Against and Corsi Against, top-ranked player has lowest rate, so a higher percentile is better in all cases.

When No. 42 and No. 11 were on the ice together, the Hurricanes’ offensive production was roughly average and their defensive suppression was excellent.

This was well-known throughout the season, as the Nordstrom-Staal-Nestrasil line gained recognition. It made such an impression that this has become his general reputation amongst the fanbase and, evidently, the coaching staff as well.

Without Staal

When not playing with Staal, however, Nordstrom was nothing short of atrocious.

So bad, in fact, that his on-ice Corsi percentage would’ve been the second-worst in the league (ahead of only Jarret Stoll) among 678 players with at least 200 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time.

Rates with Nordstrom on-ice, Staal off-ice (212 minutes)

For comparison, even a player such as Brad Malone managed to squeak into the 14th percentile in on-ice Corsi (shot attempts) For. A sans-Staal Nordstrom, meanwhile, would have been in the 1st percentile — in other words, 672nd out of 678 players.

Nordstrom also demonstrated little ability to get to the net front despite his sizable frame (6’1″). His average shot distance of 30.34 feet ranked second-worst among Hurricanes forwards, topping only Phil Di Giuseppe.

Admittedly, the Nordstrom-without-Staal data is based on a much smaller sample size than the Nordstrom-with-Staal data, and his other relatively common linemates during that time (Elias Lindholm, Jay McClement) aren’t very adept play-driving forces on their own, either.

But add in his 383 minutes of ice time with the Blackhawks in 2014-15 — when he was still bad, but at least on the charts, in terms of possession stats but equally awful at converting them into goals — and the argument becomes even more convincing:

Rates with Nordstrom on-ice with Blackhawks (383 minutes)

The story was similar during Nordstrom’s 16-game stint for the Blackhawks in 2013-14, as well.

Nordstrom’s entire (albeit brief) NHL career to date has revealed no evidence whatsoever that he can be even a mediocre playmaker or scorer when not playing alongside an elite teammate.

What does it mean?

The damning picture of Nordstrom by himself will only be a shark lurking in the deep as long as Peters keeps his checking line of a year ago together.

But it’s possible that he won’t do so for Opening Day, and it’s very likely that he won’t do so for the entire season.

“The line of Nordstrom, Staal and Nestrasil was very effective last year for us, but more as a shutdown line. So if we want to use that as a shutdown line, we can. If we want to bump Jordan up into more of a scoring role, we can do that,” Peters said on Sirius XM NHL radio earlier this summer, and only two of the four line combination sets examined in another recent article have that trio united.

If that group is broken apart, Nordstrom is in position to receive extremely inflated ice time as the team attempts to use him in the same checking line role, just without the stabilizing factor of Staal. That could make for a defensively respectable but offensively maladroit checking line at best, and a complete disaster at worst.

Taken individually, McClement, Di Giuseppe and Bryan Bickell — as well as the rest of the Hurricanes’ forward corps — are all more worthy of a roster spot than Nordstrom, which rightfully would bump him down onto the healthy scratch list.

Of course, Nordstrom was a third-round pick in 2010, is only 24 and improved tremendously as he settled into Raleigh, regardless of why. He could continue that upward trend this fall and begin to come into his own as a contributor, gradually disproving the conclusions of the statistics he’s generated so far.

But the Hurricanes can’t count on that.

Joakim Nordstrom may take a step back in 2016-17