Honestly, I’m still smarting from the February 17 article. I let the suggestion that I was “panicked” on previous days goad me into making a statement that I absolutely knew was nothing more than an opinion on a matter where I had been trying to deliver facts that allowed readers to prepare and plan appropriately. I blew it that day in the worst, worst possible way. And I did so despite also saying this:

Naturally, I am far from 100% confident in that answer. This is a large epidemic. It’s an easily transmitted disease for which there is neither a vaccine nor natural immunity, and it has demonstrated its ability to overwhelm the health care capabilities of a large modern city, going from zero to 70,000 cases and 1,700 people dead in three months. You’d have to be more than a little self-delusional to have no concern, or to confidently state, “We got this.”

Which only makes it worse that I then allowed myself to explain why I thought we did have this. It was a point where there were more cases on board the Diamond Princess than everywhere else in the world outside China combined, and where the only sign of any community transmission outside of China came from a handful of cases in Singapore and Japan, both of which were moving swiftly to exert control. And still … I knew better. Look at that paragraph above, then imagine following it with anything less than a deeply felt “So get ready.”

Imagine it again knowing that article came almost two weeks after this:

x Just left the Administration briefing on Coronavirus. Bottom line: they aren't taking this seriously enough.



Notably, no request for ANY emergency funding, which is a big mistake. Local health systems need supplies, training, screening staff etc. And they need it now. — Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) February 5, 2020

Senator Murphy wasn’t alone in seeing what was coming. After all, he was part of an all Senate, closed door briefing on the threat posed by novel coronavirus. It’s just that Murphy’s response was to warn the public, not use the next two weeks to sell off millions in stocks before the markets collapsed.

But at the same time that Murphy was doing his best to break through complacency, and Kelly Loeffler and Richard Burr were locking down their pre-pandemic profits, the whole of the U.S. Commerce Department was gloating. As the BBC reported at the time, a statement on that day played up how 2019 novel coronavirus was good for America: "It is also important to consider the ramifications of doing business with a country that has a long history of covering up real risks to its own people and the rest of the world.”

And while Ross was bragging that coronavirus was going to make companies run back to the United States, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was making regular visits to Capitol Hill, and television, to dismiss the idea that that the coronavirus was any big deal for the U.S. Mnuchin testified that the virus would have no lasting effect on the economy, and promised that this little epidemic thing wouldn’t stop China from making the massive purchases that Donald Trump had promised. It might be worth noting that Mnuchin gave that advice that the coronavirus was no big deal, in the midst of testimony where he also claimed that Trump’s tax cuts would still pay for themselves. And just two days later, he was hard at work on the most critical component of any coronavirus plan: a bailout package for airlines. Meanwhile Ross, having been heavily criticized for claiming that coronavirus was good for American business, did what any Trump official does he repeated it.

But both Ross and Mnuchin may need to step aside for the real king of predicting all things coronavirus: White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow. On the same day that Ross was talking about how the virus would chase jobs back to the United States, Kudlow was there to say that novel coronavirus would have a “minimal impact” on the United States, though he did warn that the “export boom” from Trump’s trade deal would take longer “because of the Chinese virus.” And yes, Kudlow was already using the term “Chinese virus” in early February. In fact, no one may have had a better eye on how everything was going to turn out than Kudlow:

Reporter: “Is the coronavirus the kind of thing that can suggest the end to this cycle. Do you see that as a possibility? Is there something else out there on the horizon that could bring the bears back?” Kudlow: “Well, look. The coronavirus is essentially a China problem, and we’re doing everything we can to help them, by the way. Offering them advice, sending smart people over there, and so forth. It’s not a US problem. The impact on the American economy will be very, very, very small, if any.“

Which makes it super comforting that, a day after the Coronavirus Task Force was formed, there was a very special announcement that Steven Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow were being added to the group. Where Kudlow can continue to give the kind of deep insight he provided this week when he said that the pandemic is “a short term economic hurdle” and a “matter of weeks not months.”

Considering Kudlow’s record, that may be the most frightening thing statement about the coronavirus to date.