A core group of around 20 hardline Brexiteers is threatening to vote down Theresa May’s deal for a third time next week and bring down her government at a confidence vote called by Jeremy Corbyn.

But as Eurosceptic Conservative MPs divide on how to approach the third meaningful vote due next week, a wider group of Brexiteer rebels are now keen to back the deal on the condition that May commits to stepping down as prime minister in the summer.

Downing Street remains pessimistic that the PM’s deal will pass at the third attempt. A senior government source told BuzzFeed News that they expected a significant number of Brexiteer switchers, but not enough to secure a majority next time round.

The source said the government could lose the third meaningful vote by between 20 and 40 votes, and then hope to win with support from Labour backbenchers at a fourth attempt.

On Thursday night, parliament will vote on a motion to extend Article 50 to June, as well as amendments calling for a second referendum, or allowing parliament to take control of the Brexit process, or ruling out a third meaningful vote.

Though in a tweet this morning, European Council president Donald Tusk warned he would be recommending that the EU should consider a long delay to Brexit.