One of the most eye-popping exit poll statistics to come out of the Dec. 12 Senate election in Alabama was the 48-48 split among voters when asked whether they approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump.

Thirteen months ago, Trump routed Democrat Hillary Clinton in Alabama by 28 percentage points. It was the highest margin of victory in a presidential contest in Alabama since 1972.

On its surface, the exit poll data suggests Trump's support has collapsed in one of his most supportive states. Political commentators who follow public policy and debate in Alabama have their doubts. To most of them, the exit poll finding merely reflects the opinion of the electorate that turned out Dec. 12, when energized Democrats propelled Doug Jones past Roy Moore.

"It's tempting to look at 2017 as a complete reversal of the 2016 events, but I don't believe it was," said William Stewart, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Alabama.

Said Jonathan Gray, a Republican political strategist in coastal Alabama: "Of the people who voted, 48 percent would have voted for Donald Trump and 48 percent would not have voted for Donald Trump. You cannot read anything more into it."

Added political campaign consultant David Mowery: "I think that is the enthusiasm gap more than anything. It's not that Trump is 48-48 in Alabama, but he's 48-48 among the people who voted."

The Moore factor

Nationally, Trump's overall approval ratings are dour. The FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator pegs Trump's approval at 37 percent. A CNN poll, released Dec. 19, placed Trump's overall approval at 35 percent, down 10 percentage points from early in the year.

While such numbers suggest that difficultly looms for congressional Republicans in next year's midterms, it may not be reflective of Alabama.

Skeptics of the 48-48 exit poll believe that it reflects more on Roy Moore than anything else. In many Republican circles in Alabama, the long-controversial Moore is disliked almost as much as any Democrat. And in the waning weeks of the Senate campaign, he struggled to respond to allegations by several women that he'd sexually stalked them as teenage girls in Gadsden when he was in his 30s.

Jones' victory, viewed as a longshot by most pollsters, marked the first time a Democrat won a Senate election in Alabama since 1992.

"Moore was never anyone's favorite," said Mowery, noting that Democrat Bob Vance nearly won the 2012 Alabama Supreme Court chief justice election against Moore. "Moore had problems and then the accusations of trying to date teenagers plus the Democrats dumping in large amounts of money nationally is what ultimately won it."

Indeed, one recent poll suggests Alabama remains one of the top Trump-supporting states. A Monmouth University poll, released ahead of the Senate election, showed that 53 percent of Alabama voters approved of Trump's job performance, while 44 percent disapproved. Similarly, the poll showed that 51 percent supported Trump's agenda vs. 43 percent who didn't.

A Morning Consult analysis of Trump's approval in each state, taken in October, placed Alabama as No. 3 among states with the highest approval rating for the president. At 59.1 percent, the Alabama approval rating for Trump ranked only behind Wyoming and West Virginia.

Jim McLaughlin, a political strategist and prominent Republican pollster, said Trump's popularity in Alabama was driving force behind Moore's desires to have the president's campaign assistance. He also noted that Jones avoided attacks against the president while campaigning. Jones, after he was elected, said he disagreed with some in his own party who were calling for Trump to resign over past sexual misconduct allegations.

Trump's popularity among Alabama conservatives was underscored in the Senate election's early rounds of voting, when GOP candidates seemed to try to outdo one another in embracing the president's policies.

Luther Strange, who lost to Moore in September's GOP runoff, got the financing backing of the Senate Leadership Fund and campaigned largely as Trump's biggest booster.

"I ain't buying the 48-job approval number on the president," said McLaughlin, scoffing at the exit poll data. "As you know, the exit polls have been notoriously wrong over the years."

He added, "The president remains very popular in Alabama. Heck, his favorability was approaching 90 percent in Alabama in my primary surveys."

'Just frustrated'

According to Morning Consult, the president's approval rating in Alabama was 62 percent back in January, only three ticks better than his October numbers. But his disapproval rating inside the state increased in the same period by nearly 10 percent points, from 26.2 to 35.8 percent.

Exit polling also showed that black Alabamians, whose turnout neared 30 percent - eclipsing turnout percentages during Barack Obama's two presidential wins - overwhelmingly voted in favor of Jones. According to the exit poll data, Jones won 98 percent of votes cast by black women.

Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster based in Montgomery, followed up with an analysis of the election and noted that the enormous black support for Jones made the difference. "If Jones' African-American support was 90 percent instead of 96 percent, Roy Moore would now be senator-elect," McCrary wrote.



Derryn Moten, chairman of the History and Political Science Department at Alabama State University, said a lot of the black voter surge had to do with anger directed at the president.

"If they are not angry, they are just frustrated," said Moten. "I think they were angry at someone like (former White House chief strategist) Steve Bannon coming into Alabama and racial and class divisions. I think they were angry at the president, coming near Alabama and, in the case of the primaries, into Alabama and casting aspersions at the NFL. Everyone knew what he was talking about when he brought up the NFL."

Moten said: "It sort of reminds me of what (famed O.J. Simpson attorney) Johnny Cochrane was accused of doing in playing the race card and dealing it from the bottom of the deck. The president does this over and over again and black folks, I believe, are just sick of this."

Richard Fording, a political science professor at the University of Alabama, said he senses Trump's "hardcore supporters" are decreasing in number. He noted that both Trump-backed candidates in the Alabama election were defeated. Trump endorsed Luther Strange ahead of the GOP runoff, which Moore won. At a rally in Pensacola earlier this month, Trump encouraged voters to back Moore.

"I think Trump energizes the other side more than he energizes his own side right now," said Fording. "The fact that Trump did, in the end, come out and endorse Roy Moore relatively firmly and he still didn't win, I think that says a lot."

Said Steve Taylor, a political science professor at Troy University: "Certainly, his ability to influence both the Strange and Moore elections show the limitations of his pull in the state."

Historically, a president's political party struggles during the midterm elections and with an energized Democratic base, many pundits are predicting doom and gloom scenarios for the current Republican majority in Congress in 2018.

Republicans control six of seven U.S. House seats in Alabama, all of which will be up for election in the coming year.

McLaughlin believes the recently approved tax reform measure - Trump's first big legislative win since taking office - will win favor with the Alabama public.

Fording, though, believes it will hurt the president elsewhere and voters will take out their frustrations in November. A Monmouth University poll released this week shows that just 14 percent of voters expect their federal taxes to go down, as compared to 50 percent who anticipate an increase.

Fording doesn't sense that Alabama GOP seats will flip Democrat, even with a national Democratic wave. But, he said, "No one also thought Doug Jones had a real chance."