Chris’ 2016 NWSL Previews

1st – Seattle Reign

2nd –

3rd – Washington Spirit

4th – Portland Thorns

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5th – FC Kansas City

6th – Houston Dash

7th –

8th – Boston Breakers

9th – WNY Flash

10th –

Most believed Chicago would be improved going into 2015, but few (with yours truly as a notable exception) likely had the Red Stars finishing the season in second place. Or the club going unbeaten in its first seven matches. But 2015 was a big step forward in a long-term plan to get Chicago to the summit of the NWSL, and for a franchise that had been craving a playoff berth at this level for the longest time, it was sweet vindication for doing things their way. Big on youth and homegrown talent and not so keen on major international signings, the Red Stars built a youthful, exciting side that had bite to it defensively while shredding opposing rearguards at times. Topping a battle tested FCKC side in the playoffs proved a bit too much at this point, but the Red Stars are clearly a club on the up, especially with a long awaited move into Toyota Stadium full-time this season.

The really encouraging sign for the Red Stars is that they accomplished so much with a side so young last year. Chicago has really invested on young talent through both the draft as well as signings and trades, and all that raw talent came together into a team that was supremely impressive for the first half of the season. But the downside of that youth is that the gas tank was clearly on ‘E’ by August, as the Red Stars would win just one of their final eight games in the regular season. More experience should help with that a bit, but Dames still has to prove that he can get his still young side to peak late in the season to truly establish this club as title contenders come playoff time.

Coach

Few probably considered the Red Stars as legitimate title contenders heading into last season, though most agreed that the Chicago club was headed in the right direction after a promising 2014. But Rory Dames’ team made an immediate statement by beating Seattle in their first match and didn’t lose until June. The club was all but free and clear for a playoff spot by the time they started to lose steam in July, but even though Dames’ side went down painfully to local rivals FC Kansas City in the playoff semi-final, few would begrudge the coach for his efforts in building this squad to be such a contender after the ignominious start to their life in the NWSL in 2013.

From a side without a marquee attraction, Dames has drafted wisely and taken advantage of the likes of Christen Press being allocated their way after getting the short straw in the initial allocation process and has built a young and dynamic squad capable of beating anyone in the league. The Red Stars gained a reputation as being hard to beat despite not having the most talent early in Dames’ tenure, but the talent turnover has made the club more aesthetically appealing while being more threatening in front of goal as well. They couldn’t quite match the pace of Seattle offensively, last year, but were just a few goals off the best goals conceded mark in the league.

Dames and the Red Stars have largely done it in contrast to many other of the league’s upper echelon, eschewing international talent for young, homegrown draftees and shrewd trades and signings. The club only furthered its reputation for the above before last season after they managed to bring in both Danielle Colaprico and Sofia Huerta, both of whom played key roles for the club throughout their rookie campaigns. Lesser heralded players over the years such as Samantha Johnson and Michele Dalton have also been integral to the rise of the Red Stars as well, and Dames’ ability to get his roster to play as more than the sum of their parts has been one of his strongest assets as coach.

But for the first time in their NWSL history, the Red Stars enter a season with real expectation attached to their name. Given some of the turnover around the rest of the league and with title rivals in particular, anything other than the playoffs in 2016 would be disastrous for the club. With most of the core pieces from last season returning to Chicago, the bar might be pushed even higher than just a playoff appearance. Dames has proven more than a little adept at making do with limited resources and mastering the art of building a playoff contender from near scratch, but the question now is if he can lead his Red Stars to the summit when so many are expecting so much from the manager and his team.

Goalkeepers

If Chicago had a bit of an Achilles’ heel last season, it was in goal, where the club suffered from the lack of a true #1. Canadian Karina LeBlanc was well past it from the evidence of eight appearances she made for the club in her final season and was clearly the club’s second choice by the end of the season. Michele Dalton, little known outside of obsessives who had recognized her as a player who had gone overseas to master her craft after college, signed with the club in the preseason and was impressive enough for much of the season but displayed her limitations in a nervy and inconsistent showing against FC Kansas City in the playoff semi-final defeat.

It was apparent that Chicago needed to make an aggressive move for a new starting netminder if they wanted to truly contend for a title, and the Red Stars did just that in moving around some assets to acquire former Boston keeper Alyssa Naeher. Once a raw keeper with mountains of potential, Naeher has developed into a true #1 at club level and a player who may potentially duplicate that role with the USWNT at some point. Breakers’ supporters were livid for the most part by the decision to trade Naeher away, as the former Penn State keeper had kept many a scoreline respectable in front of some truly catastrophic backlines in her three seasons with the club. She’ll likely be thankful to not have to deal with such a leaky back four this season and is being relied upon as the missing piece of the puzzle for a potential title run by the Red Stars.

With LeBlanc’s retirement and the acquisition of Naeher, Dalton will slide back into the backup role and take the gloves when Naeher’s away on international duty. The former Wisconsin netminder made good use of the experience she gained abroad in the time she got as starter last season and certainly did a job for the club when called upon. But Dalton also made some costly errors in the playoff game and probably doesn’t have the upside to develop into much more than what she is now: a very good backup at this level. There’s no shame in that though, and Dalton still figures to be a very important player with Naeher likely to miss time due to USWNT call-ups.

Seattle University keeper Brianna Smallidge was the other keeper in camp that lasted longest before final cuts. She could be the emergency option when Naeher is away.

If you believe that the lack of a true #1 keeper was the thing that held Chicago back from a true title challenge last season, then the Red Stars have probably taken a big step towards that challenge by bringing in Naeher. It will be interesting to see how Naeher responds to the increased scrutiny considering she hasn’t played for a team in contention for honors in the NWSL thus far, having been marooned in Boston the past three seasons. Regardless, the Red Stars do have one of the league’s best one-two punches with Dalton backing up the newly acquired Naeher, making this a position of strength for the club.



Defenders

It was largely mission accomplished for the Red Stars defense last season, as they conceded just over a goal a game and finished third in the league in goals allowed. Considering the group was largely anonymous other than center-back stud Julie Johnston, it was quite an accomplishment. But there’s been some serious upheaval in the offseason, as Taryn Hemmings, one of the league’s most underrated defenders last year, was selected in the expansion draft by Orlando before choosing to retire, while Rachel Quon was not re-signed after losing her allocation status from Canada. Add in a trade of Abby Erceg to Western New York and the retirement of Michelle Lomnicki, and the Red Stars may well be a bit concerned with this group going into the new year.

Then again, it’s hard to get too worried about a back four captained by Johnston. For much of last year’s World Cup, the Santa Clara alum looked like one of the best center-backs in the world, and she could boost her prestige even further at the Olympics in Rio in August. Johnston is a threat going forward and on set pieces as well and is growing into the complete defender that teams at this level are anchored around. Her continued growth is going to be a key for the Red Stars considering some of the turnover around her, but her mere presence on the backline makes this a formidable unit and potentially one of the best in the league.

The big question facing the Red Stars, perhaps the biggest they face coming into the season, is who’ll partner Johnston at center-back and what combo of players will be used when the U.S. international is away with the WNT. With Hemmings and Erceg gone, much of the club’s center-back depth has gone with it.

Likely to be first in line for the role alongside Johnston is youngster Samantha Johnson, meaning announcers could have fits this season with a “Johnson and Johnston” center-back pairing. The former undrafted player out of USC has become one of the league’s best “diamond in the rough stories”, going from making the club out of an open tryout to starting thirteen of the fourteen matches she played last season. She’s certainly looked the part of a player that can be a full-time first choice at center-back in this league, but the pressure ramps up this season with Johnson at the top of the depth chart for a team that could be contending for a title. When Johnston’s gone, Johnson could well be the most experienced center-back on the club, so Dames will be hoping the former Trojan can direct traffic at the heart of the rearguard when Johnston’s away.

The only other natural center-back on the roster is the club’s top draft pick from this year, Notre Dame’s Katie Naughton. Naughton made an immediate impact with the Irish as an underclassman but never really developed into the superstar that some projected her as after her first few years in college. A rather torrid time at the U20 World Cup in 2014 brought some glaring weaknesses to light, namely that Naughton’s quite limited on the ball going forward and doesn’t have the passing range of some modern center-backs. Which isn’t to say that she didn’t do well with the Irish her final few years in South Bend, as she was still a strong central defender for the ACC side. But she also comes to the next level with a pretty defined ceiling and doesn’t figure to be a star at this level. She could be moved into a defensive midfield role at some point, but in any event, she’ll likely be thrust into the fire as soon as Johnston misses time with the USWNT. Her ability to handle the jump in class could be key for the Red Stars’ title hopes.

The situation’s a little more settled on the flanks. Left-back will likely be filled for the immediate future by second-year player Arin Gilliland. Gilliland drew raves for her play as a marauding full-back as a rookie, immediately slotting in to the club’s first choice lineup and standing out as one of the league’s best rookies in 2015. That she didn’t even get a look with either the USWNT or the U.S. U23s this offseason is something of a head scratcher, but the calls will get louder for Gilliland to be offered such a chance if she can excel again on what looks like a very young and talented backline for the Red Stars this season.

Right-back’s a little bit more of a concern. With Hemmings and Quon both gone this season, the club gambled to bring in former Boston first-round pick Casey Short. Short was a little bit of a surprise as a #5 overall pick in 2013’s draft, but two serious knee injuries seemed to have ended her collegiate career before it had even started. However, the former FSU star went abroad to Norway to play with Avaldsnes and ended up reigniting her career as one of the very best players in the Toppserien in 2015. With her rights still owned by Chicago after a trade, bringing her back to these shores was a no-brainer. The injury history is still a major worry, but if Short does manage to stay healthy, she could end up as one of the league’s best right-backs.

Depth could be a concern, as the other two options at full-back look to be rookies. The Red Stars faithful should be reasonably familiar with DePaul’s Sarah Gorden. The local product saw her stock slip perhaps just a bit as DePaul didn’t match their 2014 form, but few could argue that Gorden wasn’t one of the region’s top defenders after another big season for the Blue Demons as a senior. The big knock on Gorden is size though, as she played as a very small center-back in college and will have to make the transition out wide to stick at the next level in all likelihood, though she could also act as emergency cover in the middle. Her versatility makes her a strong candidate to stick and be a valuable asset off the bench.

This group looks formidable at full strength if everything goes right. Short needs to stay healthy, and the club needs to hope that either Johnson or Naughton are the answer at center-back to really see the unit meet its potential. But if it all comes together, this could be one of the best units in the league. However, the depth is very, very young as compared to previous seasons, and there’s probably a worry or two at how they’ll hold up without Johnston at times. This is probably the weakest unit on the team, but that speaks to how good the rest of the club is rather than any demerit on the defense itself.

Midfielders

The Red Stars’ midfield was undoubtedly a strength for the club last year, with the trio of Lori Chalupny, Vanessa DiBernardo, and Danielle Colaprico excelling in the middle of the park. It was a fleeting glimpse of a great combination though, as Chalupny retired following the season and her stirring comeback to win a spot on the USWNT WWC team. You just can’t replace the production or intangibles of a player like Chalupny overnight, and Dames’ ability to rework his midfield to keep it rolling along could make or break the club’s title ambitions.

The good news is the other two parts of that midfield do return this year. Danielle Colaprico was tipped by some (including myself) to have a major impact in the league as a rookie, and the former Virginia midfielder won the Rookie of the Year award after a sensational season. Colaprico’s less of a destroyer type deep midfielder and instead does the simple things as a pivot in the middle of the park, though her contributions don’t show up often in the box score. She was an iron woman as a rookie, starting all twenty matches and appearing to be on the verge of a USWNT call-up at the end of the 2015 season. It’s surely too late for a look for the Olympics, but if Colaprico keeps progressing, the 2019 WWC in France could be her stage for a big breakout at international level.

If the Red Stars are going to make the leap and emerge as true title contenders, they’ll probably need DiBernardo to take the next step and turn into a star for the club. The former Illinois standout has been an unqualified success for the club as part of their creative engine in midfield and led the team with five assists last season. But without Chalupny in the middle of the park, there will be a lot more attention focused on the young midfielder, and DiBernardo’s going the have to cope with the increased defensive attention if the Red Stars aren’t to slide back a bit. Having a great frontline should help her cause, and if all goes well, DiBernardo could add to last year’s assist total this season in Chicago.

The $64,000 question for Dames in the midfield is who’s going to be filling the quite large shoes of Chalupny after her retirement. In terms of track record with the club, the early favorite has to be Alyssa Mautz. Mautz is a bit of a wild card in the fact that she can be a unpredictable entity on the pitch, for better or for worse. On the positive side, Mautz managed two goals and three assists last season despite missing a quarter of the season. On the negative side, Mautz also has a streak of ill-discipline on the pitch that rears its head at inopportune times, though she wasn’t booked last season, so that concern may be fading. However, Mautz also can be a bit inconsistent, something she’ll need to rectify to become a consistent starter on this side in 2016.

Another contender for the spot is the newly acquired Amanda Da Costa, arriving via trade from the Washington Spirit. The Portuguese international was welcomed back home last season after spending a few years in England, picking up a couple of winner’s medals with Liverpool Ladies and establishing herself as one of the best Americans to ply their trade abroad. Truthfully, Da Costa had a bit of trouble providing consistent performances for the Spirit but did tie for third in the team with three goals, though she flitted in and out of the starting lineup. Da Costa’s versatility could be a big asset in her bid for starting minutes. She’s been most often used as a #10 type attacking central midfielder but also is able to slot in on the wings or even as a center forward. Even if Da Costa doesn’t nail down a starting spot, you figure she’ll be one of the club’s most important reserves, especially if they’re chasing a lead.

The rest of the depth is largely unproven. The club signed Marquette alum Mary Luba to a contract late in the season after she starred for the reserve team in the WPSL, and the Wisconsin native did enough last year to be kept around this season on a full contract as well. While Luba was dominant for the reserve team, she also has just forty minutes of top level experience in three matches last year, so she’s still a work in progress. This area won’t be hit by absences for international duty, so Luba may find minutes hard to come by, especially given some of the competition for time in this packed unit.

She’ll be in a battle for those minutes with some other youngsters, including one of the team’s draftees, Kentucky’s Courtney Raetzman. At 4’11”, Raetzman will be one of the smallest players in league history, but the spritely midfielder was an energetic presence in midfield for the Wildcats and dished seven assists as a senior despite having to work with an inconsistent frontline. Raetzman is an explosive dribbler with the ball and is a tenacious battler in the middle of the park. Obviously, the big question is if she can defend top level talent given her lack of size, but her skills to break down defenses and attack directly could make her a real weapon coming off the bench when the club is chasing a goal early in her pro career.

Out of camp, the Red Stars added invitee Taylor Comeau, who should be a familiar name for Portland Thorns fans. Comeau actually started five games and appeared in four more last season for the depth challenged Thorns but still looked to have some developing to do to be a big contributor at this level. Experience in Cyprus after the season definitely should help her cause, and Dames has a good history of developing raw, underrated talent, so the former Cal star could be one to watch down the line, though you wouldn’t suspect Comeau will get major minutes this season barring injury or a downturn in form.

The DiBernardo-Colaprico combo should ensure this midfield stays one of the league’s most effective for years to come, but replacing everything Chalupny brought to the table isn’t going to be easy or an overnight task. Mautz and DaCosta aren’t bad options to have though, and you get the feeling that Dames will be able to scheme something up to ensure that this group keeps ticking over in 2016.

Forwards

Tied for third fewest goals scored two seasons ago, Chicago turned that on its head last season, finishing tied for third most goals scored, though they (and everyone else) were still light years away from league scoring champs Seattle. While some of the depth has changed for the Red Stars after the offseason, the core here looks relatively stable and promises more goals again in 2016.

Of course, it all begins with USWNT’er Christen Press. Press’ sublime contributions in front of goal have been evident over the offseason when she’s befuddled hopeless defenders with her staggering skill, but the next step may be bringing some silverware to the Second City. Her impact in front of goal last year was tangible, as she hit double figures despite playing in just twelve regular season games for the club. The golden boot is a real possibility for the former Stanford star, even if she misses a few games on international duty. She’ll be pushing to be in peak form for the Rio Olympics to try and lock up a starting spot that has eluded her for much of her international career thus far.

The big question is who this team’s second banana is going to be on the frontline. With the hapless Adriana Leon and Melissa Tancredi mercifully excised from the roster, the Red Stars will likely look to youngsters Jen Hoy and Sofia Huerta to try and supply some fireworks. The ceiling on Hoy has probably dipped a bit since she took the league by storm as a rookie, but few will argue she isn’t a solid asset to have in the attack. Four goals and four assists last year is probably the baseline this year as well for Hoy, though it remains to be seen if it’ll be from a starting role or a super sub one.

Her main competition for playing time figures to be Huerta, who had a strong rookie season for the Red Stars, finishing second on the team with six goals. Huerta was an ace at winning fouls with her marauding pace, but her overall lack of consistency saw her fade from favor in the stretch run. After a torrid start to the season, Huerta didn’t score after June 6, a period of thirteen games. It’s a crucial year for the former Santa Clara player, as she’ll need to rediscover her scoring touch to show that she hasn’t been figured out by opposing defenses already.

Second-year player Cara Walls is the early favorite to provide end of the bench depth in the attack. Walls played sparingly as a rookie, averaging about twenty-five minutes in ten appearances and netting one goal in 2015. She’ll likely need to show some growth to avoid a challenge for a roster spot from the club’s rookies. Jannelle Flaws is plenty familiar with the organization having been a part of their reserve team in the past. Flaws overcame injury problems to turn herself into one of the NCAA’s top forwards a few years ago, but her senior season saw her hobbled a bit, with her production dipping noticeably. There’s not much upside, but Flaws could still be serviceable if healthy.

The Press-Hoy-Huerta troika has the potential to be one of the league’s more formidable frontlines. But there’s also the rather thorny issue of molding the trio into something that can score consistently. The attack ran aground last season after the WWC, and there are worries about a potential repeat after this Summer’s Rio Olympics. Getting everyone pulling in the same direction is going to be key if the Red Stars are to challenge for a title.

Outlook

The secret’s out in Chicago, and nobody is going to be overlooking this Red Stars team any more. Few probably took the Red Stars lightly last year considering Dames’ job in the league’s first two seasons, but the popular opinion is that Chicago is now a team that should expect to get to the playoffs on a yearly basis and not a scrappy underdog. That shift is probably a bigger deal than many might expect, and the Red Stars may now have to break down teams that sit deeper on a more frequent basis. How Dames responds tactically to being a favorite on many nights could define where in the table Chicago finishes.

Given the talent, it’ll probably be in the playoff places. The goalkeeping is going to be on point, even when Naeher isn’t around, while Johnston should contend for Defensive Player of the Year honors. Gilliland and Short could form a masterful full-back combo, and even though the depth isn’t great, there’s still some great young talent to be developed here. The biggest worry on defense might be the lack of an overall experienced field general on the backline. It’s easy to forget how young the defensive corps is, and they may have to rely a lot on Naeher to organize and calm things down given her experience in goal.

There’s little to worry about offensively as long as Press is here. She’s on the shortlist of best forwards in the world and looks likely to crush defenses this season. Dames and co. really need one of Hoy or Huerta to take the reigns as a legit #2 option though, as both have been victim to streaky runs of form in their NWSL careers thus far. Replacing Chalupny is the other big worry offensively, as the club legend brought so much to the table beyond just on-field play. Chicago already has two-thirds of a great midfield, and finding that crucial third player could be the difference between a deep run and disappointment.

I suspect Dames will get it right, as he has for much of the Red Stars’ history in the NWSL. I still think they’re a little too young to win a title, but I do believe they’re edging their way towards said championship. Don’t be surprised if the club exceeds expectations again and ends up in the final in October.

Prediction: 2nd