1. Michigan State is better than we realize

Analyzing the first month of the college football season is a crapshoot. We rarely have any clear idea of which teams are actually good or on their way to being great. There are exceptions. Namely, Alabama. But each year we underestimate teams in September based on last season or misjudge them too favorably based on early results against other teams we think are good but aren’t. See MSU last season after beating Notre Dame.

This season, MSU might fit the first category. The Spartans went 3-9 last year. So, by rule of the boundaries of the human brain, they can only be so good now. Yet, there’s very little evidence so far to suggest that the Spartans aren’t at least a fringe Big Ten contender — just a turnover-riddled home loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago, in which MSU out-gained the Irish. Like the Spartans, Notre Dame turned out not to be very good last year, so credit is slow to come this season. Plus, the Irish already have a home loss. Except that lone loss, 20-19 to Georgia, suddenly looks like a heck of an effort, given that Georgia has since destroyed Mississippi State and Tennessee a combined 72-3.

MSU’s 17-10 win over Iowa last week came against a Hawkeyes team that had just come within a fingernail of beating Penn State, which has otherwise annihilated everything in its path, including Pitt and Indiana. MSU’s win over Western Michigan is looking noteworthy, too. The Broncos’ opening-week effort at USC — tied 28-28 midway through the fourth quarter — drew headlines. WMU also just beat Ball State, 55-3.

The transitive property in sports is for fools. But right now it’s also all we really have.

2. Michigan might be worse than we realize

What have the Wolverines really done to garner their No. 7 ranking? They do have an elite defense — any college football layman should be able to see that. But that ranking is about brand and Jim Harbaugh. Back to the transitive property. Aside from the second half against a shorthanded Florida team with plenty of warts, Michigan has struggled against a Cincinnati team that’s in the second tier of the American Athletic Conference, made hard work of a 1-3 Air Force club and then spent an entire half going toe to toe with Purdue.

What exactly in that resume screams double-digit favorite against MSU? What in that resume is proof the Wolverines are better at all than MSU?

Check yourself before you use the transitive property in justifying a call to your local bookie. But there’s a chance the Spartans have been the better team in September.

3. If the college football gods have a sense of humor, MSU wins

I don’t subscribe to the theory that a higher power cares at all who wins and loses on the football field. But plenty of players and coaches seem to, always thanking this “God” fellow for a last-second field goal or when the other team drops a pass in the final minute. If they’re right, God — or the football gods — must have a sense of humor. And if those gods do, it’d be a lot more fun for them to watch Michigan and its fans come to terms with another loss to MSU than to feed a century-old narrative and watch Michigan celebrate and Michigan State suffer.

Think about the final 10 seconds of the game on Oct. 17, 2015, in Ann Arbor. That’s God’s work, right? Or some sort of higher influence. Someone wanted to be able to replay that Jim Brandstatter radio call upstairs for their own amusement.

Watch out for the big fella tonight. God that is. Not Brandstatter.

4. Recent history tells us this is more likely MSU’s day

The last nine years have taught us that the Spartans have the mental edge in this matchup. Whatever dynamic still lingers between the two fan bases doesn’t exist between the hash marks. MSU’s players feel disrespected, seeing themselves as constant underdogs and using it to their advantage. It’s that chip on their shoulders you so often hear about. They don’t feel at all inferior — seven wins in nine years leaves a mark. They’re just ticked off.

Even MSU’s two losses during this nine-year stretch, in 2012 and last season, frayed a few Wolverine nerves. Since MSU beat Michigan for the first time in the Mark Dantonio era, the Spartans have always been better than expected, going 9-0 against the point spread, with three of those seven outright wins coming as underdogs — actual underdogs, not just Dantonio hyperbole.

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5. Michigan’s offensive line might be a debilitating problem

You can overcome certain things on a football field. Eventually, though, a porous offensive line bites you. The Wolverines have the best unit in this game — a defense that looks special. They also have the weakest unit in this game — that offensive line. Michigan’s 12 sacks allowed, four per game, are among the worst in the Big Ten. They can’t protect or run with any consistency. Their middling 4.3 yards per rush are as misleading as Michigan State’s 4.5. Neither team can count on getting a tough yard when it needs it. MSU, at least, is better at keeping its QB from eating sod.

6. I picked Michigan to win big

34-13. That’s right, I’ve got the Wolverines’ winning by three touchdowns despite everything I just wrote. That Michigan defense, I think, is going to wreak havoc. MSU will turn the ball over a couple times and perhaps give up a big kick return.

Let me give you a quick summary of some of my other sound predictions — Illinois over MSU in 2013, MSU over Ohio State in 2014, Michigan over MSU in 2015, Notre Dame by double digits over MSU in 2016. You get the point. I picked this game one way, for Michigan. So it’ll more likely go the other way, for MSU.

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.