Mesoscale Discussion 1380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020 Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Far Southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022216Z - 030015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a couple more hours across parts of northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. The threat is expected to be too localized and brief for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in place across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms have developed on the western edge of the moist airmass in parts of northwest Texas late this afternoon. Surface dewpoints in northwest Texas are generally in the 50s F which is contributing to MLCAPE of 800 to 1200 J/kg, according to the RAP. In spite of this, the Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has about 30 kt of 0-6 km shear. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for an isolated wind damage threat. The stronger cores could also be accompanied by hail. The threat should eventually diminish as surface temperatures gradually cool early this evening. ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/02/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32919935 32670041 32650117 32910154 33280174 33980174 34410163 34820113 35010050 35039981 34879927 34209890 33459886 32919935