A leading national parking-lot analyst estimates in a good scenario Glendale in the next 25 years could recoup $126 million by charging for parking at Jobing.com Arena, something for which the city plans to pay $100 million.

Walker Parking Consultants' analysis would leave the city without enough money to pay the principal and interest on the money it expects to borrow.



Walker study: Part 1

Walker study: Part 2

Walker study: Part 3

TL Hocking study

Under the city's latest hockey deal, Glendale must pay $100 million as soon as possible to Phoenix Coyotes buyer Mathew Hulsizer for the arena parking rights, plus $97 million over the next five years to Hulsizer for arena management.

Glendale leaders assured residents it expected to pay for the $100 million plus interest using parking fees.

Parking studies commissioned by the city were not released to the public ahead of the City Council's vote in December to accept the deal. The Arizona Republic requested the documents at the Dec. 14 meeting, but the city has not provided them.

Glendale provided Walker's study and others to the Goldwater Institute, which recently posted the documents on its website.

Walker's was one of two parking studies commissioned by the city. The other from TL Hocking & Associates estimates Glendale would collect exactly enough parking money to pay off its end of the hockey deal with Hulsizer.

TL Hocking, a Phoenix-based financial advisory firm that has produced multiple studies for the city through the Coyotes' bankruptcy and ownership troubles, offered a nine-page report.

Hocking estimates that Glendale, after paying expenses to operate parking, could collect $195 million from parking fees in the first 25 years.

That figure is double the projections in a 112-page report from Walker Parking Consultants, which has offices in California and around the country.

Walker estimates that in a good scenario, with Coyotes attendance growing in the first 25 years, Glendale's parking revenue after expenses would reach $126 million.

Walker estimates that if hockey attendance remained flat, Glendale's parking collections would be $107 million over 25 years, less than half of the amount TL Hocking projected.

The biggest cause for variation between the two parking studies is attendance.

Hocking assumes the Coyotes would attract 12,000 to 15,000 fans per game each year. Walker's best scenario assumes attendance would steadily increase from 11,500 to 14,500.

After about five years, Hocking assumes total event attendance at the arena, including hockey and other events, would hit nearly 1.28 million per year. Walker pegs it closer to 1.24 million a year.

That is an annual difference of 34,000 attendees.

The studies also differ regarding people expected to travel per vehicle and the amount of fees the city would charge.

Hocking assumes 2.5 people per vehicle, while Walker assumes from 2.5 to 2.7 people per vehicle.

Hocking assumes $5 to $17.50 per vehicle parking fee depending on the event. Walker assumes parking for some events could hit $20, but most would run in the $10-$15 range.

City officials have said they intend to charge from $5 to $20 depending on the event.

Walker took into account historical Coyotes and concert attendance and parking estimates from the team, Glendale and ESPN, as well as data from another consultant hired by "one of the private groups seeking to buy the Coyotes."

Tom Hocking of TL Hocking said he performed a similar in-depth review of historical numbers, although it was not laid out in his report.

"I feel very confident with the assumptions we used," he said.

"Unfortunately, people just look at bottom-line numbers and think the number was drawn out of thin air, which obviously was not the case here," Hocking added.

He pointed out that Coyotes reported attendance averaged from 14,000 to 15,000 before the team suffered a devastating hit to ticket-sales from the team's bankruptcy. "You would assume once the franchise got back on its feet again and started to redevelop the fan base that they would come back to those attendance numbers," Hocking said.

Reported and actual attendance varies. Reported attendance is the tickets sold, while actual attendance, usually lower, is the people through the gate.

Hocking describes Walker as more conservative in its attendance projections.

But a recovering economy and new owner could make a big difference, he said.

Walker recommends Glendale hire parking staff and begin charging for parking immediately.