H/T to Ryan Thibodaux, @NotMrTibbs, for his work compiling publicly released Hall of Fame ballots. You can check out his spreadsheet at bit.ly/hof16, and should definitely follow him on Twitter.





Former Mets (and Dodgers (and Padres (and A's (and Marlins)))) catcher Mike Piazza is on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot again this year, seeking election in his fourth attempt. While his credentials (399 HR as a catcher (420 overall), 142 career OPS+, 10 silver slugger awards, 12 All-Star appearances, and 7 top-10 MVP finishes) suggest he should have gotten in on his first try, Piazza's physique and the era he played in have created debate - largely unfounded - about potential PED use, a major red flag to many voters.





Nonetheless, he's still trending in the correct direction, appearing on 69.9% of ballots last year and inching toward the 75% threshold every year he's appeared. Since last year's vote, the BBWAA made some major changes to their voting rules in an attempt to pare down the number of ballots coming from those who haven't covered the game in years. Given that older voters have typically held more conservative views about PED use (a debate I'm not going to encroach here), the question comes up of how this could affect Piazza's candidacy.





Ryan Thibodaux, who you can find on Twitter @NotMrTibbs, maintains a spreadsheet of publicly revealed Hall of Fame ballots. His work allows us to get some pretty good ideas of how the votes break down. Last year, 330 of 549 ballots cast were revealed publicly (most in advance, though many writers wait until after the election results are published to reveal their ballots). Here's what Thibodaux's work has revealed about the changes since last year:





33 voters have been confirmed as "purged" - they no longer have a Hall of Fame vote.

51 voters are suspected to be purged

5 voters have passed away (though one, Phil Pepe, passed this week and may have mailed in his ballot).





Taking the high assumption, that means 88 voters from last year will not have a vote thi s year. And of those 88:





29 had public ballots (18 voted for Piazza, 62.07%)

59 had private ballots





From last year's spreadsheet, we know that 62.1% of private ballots included Piazza's name. Piazza received 384 total votes - 248 on public ballots (of 330), 136 on private ballots (of 219).





So we can assume, as a baseline, Piazza has 230 public votes (of 301), but the private votes present a tougher question. If we assume that the purged private voters were consistent with all private voters, then he lost 37 votes (of 59). In total, then, he's at 329 votes out of 461 - 71.37%.





Now we can add in the new information we have. Through 64 ballots cast so far this year, Piazza has gained 9 votes - 6 from returning voters, and 4 from first-time voters. That bumps him to 337 votes on 464 ballots - 72.63%. We don't know how many first time voters to expect - Thibodaux ballparks it at 12-15 - so we'll assume the lower end and that 75% vote for Piazza (both conservative estimates, as Piazza appeared on more than 90% of first-time ballots a year ago).





Altogether, we can currently peg Piazza at 72.73%, 11 votes shy of election. That baseline is a cause for optimism, though, for three reasons. First, we don't actually know Piazza's vote on the private purged ballots. Anecdotal evidence suggests that fewer than 62.1% of these voters checked the box next to Piazza's name, which would bump him closer. Second, the estimates with first time voters run conservative; if there are more than 12 first timers, or if more than 75% vote for Piazza, it'll push him closer. Third, we've seen that Piazza has already gained 6 votes through 65 returning voters; should that ratio hold it would net Piazza another 36 votes and push him well over the threshold.





It's not a guarantee, but with what we know now, it's becoming more and more likely that Piazza could finally reach Cooperstown next month. Regardless, the fact doesn't change that he is one of the game's all-time greats.





