Seats to watch: where the NSW election will be won or lost

Keeping track of the New South Wales election on Saturday night will be more challenging than usual because of the high number of three-cornered contests and the likelihood of several independents or minor parties winning lower house seats.

There are 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly. The Coalition currently has 52, so if it loses fewer than six seats it will retain government. Labor needs to pick up 13 seats to form government in its own right. Anything in between will result in a hung parliament .

Labor needs a uniform statewide swing of 6.7% if it is to have a shot at forming a minority government, and an 8.7% swing to win majority government.

Polls have been predicting a hung parliament.

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If three-cornered contests – for example between the Nationals, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and Labor – are close, or if there are large numbers of pre-polls or postal votes, it will be hard for the NSW Electoral Commission to allocate preferences on Saturday night.

This will be further complicated by optional preferential voting, a particular NSW quirk. It is harder to win from second place in NSW because voters do not have to number all the boxes and therefore may allocate no preferences.

Here are the seats to watch:

The bellwethers

Penrith – 6.2% Liberal

Labor needs a swing large enough to take this seat if it wants to form government. The Liberals have been lavishing campaign resources on the seat in a bid to save their MP, Stuart Ayres, the sports minister. Labor’s candidate is local councillor Karen McKeown.

Goulburn – 6.6% Liberal

Pru Goward is retiring from this regional seat and polls have shown Liberal and Labor neck and neck. It’s worth watching to see what the mood is like outside Sydney.

Oatley – 6.6% Liberal

Labor lost this multicultural seat in Sydney’s south-west when it was wiped out in 2011, and it stayed with the Liberals in 2015. The local member is Mark Coure.

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Inner city Sydney

Coogee – 2.9% Liberal

Labor is likely to win this seat, thanks to concerns about the environment and the need for a new public high school. Labor’s Marjorie O’Neill is up against the two-term Liberal Bruce Notley-Smith.

Balmain – 4.7% Greens v Labor

This has been Greens territory for some years, but Labor has fielded a young woman, Elly Howse, who could win back the seat that is synonymous with the history of the ALP, thanks to the internal conflict that has wracked the Greens. The sitting member is Jamie Parker.

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Western Sydney

East Hills – 0.4% Liberal

If Labor does not win East Hills, in Sydney’s middle ring, it will be a very bad sign for the night ahead. It is the sort of seat where Labor’s campaign about overdevelopment, lack of investment in hospitals and the stadiums should cut through. And the sitting member, Glen Brookes, is retiring.

Holsworthy – 6.7, Heathcote – 7.6%, Seven Hills – 8.7%, Mulgoa – 9.7%, Riverstone – 12.2%

Aside from Penrith and Oatley, these are the seats held by the Liberals in south-west and western Sydney. The Liberals are hoping its big investment on infrastructure in the region will convince voters to stick with them. If Labor starts winning some of these seats it is in with a real shot of forming government. It will probably need to pick up one or two of these to form minority government.

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The North Coast

Lismore – 0.2 % Nationals

The highly marginal seat was held by the longtime Nationals MP Thomas George, who is retiring. Labor is very hopeful it can claim this seat though the Green, Sue Higginson, a former CEO of the Environmental Defenders Office, is a chance in this three-cornered contest.

Ballina – 3.1% Greens v Nationals

The Greens’ Tamara Smith holds this seat, but Labor and the Nationals both have hopes. Again, this will be a test of whether the Greens’ internal upheavals have hurt the party’s support.

Tweed – 3.2% Nationals

Changing demographics mean this is also a real chance for Labor. The seat has become more urbanised and there are large numbers of retirees.

Coffs Harbour – 14.3% Nationals

The long-standing Nationals MP for Coffs Harbour, Andrew Fraser, is retiring. On such a large margin, it would be a surprise loss, but it is not inconceivable.

The Shooters’ best chances

Barwon – 12.9% Nationals

Covering 356,291km, this massive seat spanning 40% of NSW used to be staunch National party territory. But this time around events have conspired to make it a seat to watch. The Nationals MP, Kevin Humphries, is retiring and the community is split over management of the Murray-Darling. Labor is fielding the well-known mayor of Broken Hill, Darriea Turley, and the Shooters are running Roy Butler, a popular and well-known local beef farmer, who is also a vegan.

Murray – 3.3% Nationals

The Nationals MP, Austin Evans, only just won this seat in a three-cornered contest at a byelection in 2017. He is up against the local councillor Helen Dalton for the Shooters. Water is a major issue, as are jobs, particularly in the timber industry.

Orange – 0.1% Shooters

The Shooters’ Phil Donato won this seat in a byelection, giving the Shooters their first lower house seat. He is expected to hang on, but worth watching on the night.

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Other regional seats to watch

Upper Hunter – 2.2% Nationals

This is the Nationals’ most marginal seat. The seat includes the state’s biggest coalmining area, but also is home to horse studs and vineyards as well as grazing. Labor hopes to pick up this seat, but had to change candidates late in the piece. The Shooters are also running.

Monaro – 2.5% Nationals

This seat has a small margin but is held by the Nationals’ leader, John Barilaro. He is expected to hang on, but worth watching if the electorate chooses to punish the Nationals for the behaviour of their federal leaders.

Independents’ day?

Wagga Wagga – 9.6% Independent v National

The popular local doctor Joe McGirr won in a byelection in 2018, but may face a tough fight to hang on. The Nationals are throwing everything at reclaiming this seat.

Dubbo – 20.4% National

The former Nationals leader and policeman Troy Grant is retiring. The new candidate is facing a potentially strong independent, Mathew Dickerson. Labor also believes it is a long shot.