Earlier this week, conservative GOP Brian Hagedorn won a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court with an upset victory of liberal Lisa Neubauer:

Congratulations to Brian Hagedorn on his big surprise win over a well funded Liberal Democrat in the Great State of Wisconsin for a very important Supreme Court seat. Republicans are producing big for Wisconsin! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 5, 2019

“The base woke up,” apparently. From anti-Trump Charlie Sykes:

Dems agree that they’re potentially in trouble in Wisconsin:

NEW POD: Trump wants a health care election, the leaking from Team Mueller begins, Dems get a warning in Wisconsin, and @danpfeiffer and I light our mentions on fire by asking “Is Bernie the frontrunner?” Plus, my conversation with @ValerieJarrett: https://t.co/bpN1MfcfwN — Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) April 4, 2019

Republicans were outspent in the race as well:

Despite liberal groups spending more, Republicans managed to win an upset victory in a race for a seat on the state Supreme Court in Wisconsin, hinting that the state is very much up for grabs in 2020https://t.co/CSy2no6anH — OpenSecrets.org (@OpenSecretsDC) April 5, 2019

Although Tuesday’s victory may just be a quirk and not indicative of anything more:

Important caveat on Wisconsin vote: pic.twitter.com/7pvJ8uAYSb — Charlie Sykes (@SykesCharlie) April 5, 2019

And if the polls are to be believed, Trump is still very unpopular in the state:

Trump is down double digits in key battleground states since the presidential election, according to Morning Consult. Here's how Trump's net approval has shifted since he won in 2016: Florida (-24 net approval)

Ohio (-20)

Michigan (-19)

Wisconsin (-18)

Pennsylvania (-17) — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) April 5, 2019

But, even with those poll numbers, the NYT has the race as “up for grabs”:

Today we published a story about how and why Wisconsin remains very much up for grabs in the 2020 presidential race. If Trump loses Pennsylvania & Michigan, which are trending Democratic, he’d badly need Wisconsin to be re-elected. https://t.co/cUEewiDzWh via ⁦@nytimes⁩ — Patrick Healy (@patrickhealynyt) April 5, 2019

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