The New Voice publishes monthly updates on the State of the Democratic Primary, covering major news, power rankings, notable shifts, changes, and policies for your information. In addition, we’ve put together for your viewing ease a spreadsheet covering debate qualifications, national polling, early state polling, and fundraising numbers. A new tab of tracking estimated delegate counts has been added. This spreadsheet is updated roughly once a week. You can access it here.

The New Voice’s Democratic Primary Power Rankings

Note: Starting this month, we’re only ranking the top five candidates due to the size of the field.

1. Bernie Sanders (0)

In the past month, there’s been nothing but good news for Sanders. He’s received more union and progressive endorsements, his polling has consistently risen, and he’s in prime position to sweep Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as compete for Nevada. The sexist accusations against him do not appear to have any effect on his campaign. While the state of the primary is still in flux, Bernie’s place at the top of it will be hard to topple.

2. Joe Biden (0)

Biden could once appeal to the electability argument when the top tier was just him, Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg. However, Klobuchar and Bloomberg have both been on the rise, threatening his hold over the moderate vote. He continues to gaffe, and while his numbers have remained steady, his status as likely nominee is dimming. He’s still likely to win South Carolina, but defeats in Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada will do severe damage to his campaign.

3. Elizabeth Warren (0)

She’s still polling well overall, ahead of the majority of the field, but the decline from December has continued into January. Sanders’ lead in the progressive aisle appears to be a difficult roadblock for Warren. Furthermore, the fresh bad conflicts between the Sanders and Warren camps don’t bode well for the four early states. Warren sits on the edge of or below the 15% required to win delegates in each state; Iowa, in particular, will stand as a test of her campaign.

4. Pete Buttigieg (0)

Like Warren, Buttigieg’s campaign has faltered and lost the ground it gained in the past few months. He trails Sanders and Biden once again in Iowa and New Hampshire and has been unable to make a dent elsewhere in the race. He too sits precariously at the 15% viability line in most polls in IA and NH and is even less relevant in NV and SC. Unlike Warren, however, his momentum has hinged entirely on Iowa and New Hampshire, and if his campaign falters there, it may be too late to kickstart it again.

5. Amy Klobuchar (+1)

Within this next month, Klobuchar stands the best chance to enter the upper echelon of the race. She’s well-spoken, in contrast to Biden, and has elected experience, unlike Buttigieg. Klobuchar could very well emerge as the victor of the moderate lane in the primary. She too sits below the 15% line, but unlike Warren and Buttigieg, her campaign has been very much on the rise. If, and that’s a big if, Klobuchar makes a strong showing in Iowa, it may well give her the momentum to compete.

Updates from the Campaign Trail

Narrowing Field

This month we saw Julian Castro (1/2), Marianna Williamson (1/10), Cory Booker (1/13) and John Delaney (1/31) drop out, leaving 11 candidates in the running, out of a total 29. Of the remaining 11, only seven have consistently made the debate stage (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, Warren, Yang*). However, the size of the field now lends itself to more volatility, shown by the recent rises by Klobuchar, Steyer, and Yang, and the falterings of Buttigieg and Warren. February will likely lend itself to more withdrawals as underdog candidates will likely fail to secure any number of delegates, putting the final end in their campaigns.

*Yang has made all but the January debate and has since qualified for the February debate.

Debates

The seventh Democratic debate proved to be more of the same, with Democrats clashing on healthcare, and risking jabs at each other. The debate was tinged with foreign policy discussion in the wake of Soleimani’s death, as well as issues of electability of the Sanders/Warren spat. The debate stage consisted of just six candidates: Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, and Warren. Yang narrowly lacked the qualifying polls for January but has since already qualified for February, bringing the debate stage back to seven. You can read more about the January debate in our coverage by Sasha Rieser here and watch The New Voice’s live chat analysis of the next debate on February 8th.

February’s debate may grow to be larger than December’s as well, as Tom Perez and the DNC have announced that the polling and donor qualifications remain the same, but with a new rule; automatic qualification for any candidate who wins at least one pledged delegate in Iowa. Gabbard, who has not qualified for a debate since November, is also one poll short of qualification with one week left to qualify. In addition, if she makes a strong surprise showing in Iowa, she can also win a spot. Similarly, if Bennet or Patrick somehow come away with 15% of the vote in Iowa, they too would win a spot, albeit the case for their campaigns is much weaker than that of Gabbard’s.

On the Horizon

Endorsements

Few former candidates have endorsed this primary season. Most recently, Castro endorsed Warren, while Moulton and Ryan endorsed Biden. Hickenlooper very unsurprisingly endorsed his fellow Coloradan Bennet, while Gravel endorsed both Gabbard and Sanders. Given that none of the withdrawn candidates are from any of the first four states, no endorsement will bear too much weight on the February contests.

However, Super Tuesday will see the delegates from California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Texas, and Vermont in play. Beto, who has consistently had more sway and support in Texas than fellow Texan Castro, and Harris, the most prominent Californian candidate, have both remained silent since their departure from the race. Recently, speculation arose that Harris could endorse Joe Biden, but for now, it remains speculation. Between the two states, 643 pledged delegates are up for grabs, and their endorsements may be some of the most valuable in the entire primary. In the other Super Tuesday states, should a candidate drop out, their endorsement will become key: Hickenlooper and Bennet for Colorado, Warren for Massachusetts, and Sanders for Vermont. The latter two are unlikely to drop out before Super Tuesday, but still worth mentioning.

In terms of other endorsements, Biden has been winning the endorsement primary, having secured multiple endorsements from prominent governors, senators, other party officials. Notably, he holds 15 endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus, who represent a crucial Democratic bloc. The only other candidate to receive more than one endorsement has already dropped out: Senator Kamala Harris with 11.

Sanders, while lacking in endorsements from the party, leads in union endorsements: 12 to Biden’s 8 and Warren’s 3. Klobuchar and Warren were co-endorsed by the NYTimes Editorial Board, and then each went on to win a second newspaper endorsement: The Des Moines Register for Warren and the New Hampshire Union Leader for Klobuchar. Meanwhile, Bloomberg has set about an unconventional route: seeking endorsements from mayors. He has long since run a training program for mayors, whose graduates include fellow candidate Pete Buttigieg and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot. He has seen endorsements from San Francisco’s London Breed, DC’s Muriel Bowser, San Jose’s Sam Liccardo, and Louisville’s Greg Fischer.

IA, NH, NV, SC

In Iowa, Sanders and Biden are neck and neck, while Warren and Buttigieg’s gains have eroded into a precarious 14% and 16%, on the very edge of the viability benchmark. Meanwhile, Klobuchar has been steadily rising in Iowa, averaging 9%. While short of the 15% required to win delegates, the nature of the Iowa caucus can lead to a surprising Klobuchar lead over other candidates like Warren or Buttigieg.

Recent polling has generally suggested that Sanders is topping the field as we enter February, which signals the potential for a Sanders sweep in Iowa, and New Hampshire where he leads with a commanding average of 23% to Biden, Buttigieg, and Warrens’ 16, 13, and 11 respectively. It’s important to remember too that Sanders beat Clinton in New Hampshire 60-37, and many voters still feel a fondness for him in the state.

In Nevada, Biden is narrowly ahead of Sanders, while no other candidate is above 15%. Steyer and Warren are perhaps best placed to make surprise victories in Nevada, given that Nevada, too, is a caucus state. South Carolina is almost sure to be swept by Joe Biden, as he leads with 36% in the polls, compared to a meager 16, 10, and 8 for Sanders, Warren, and Steyer respectively. However, how Iowa and New Hampshire play out will likely fundamentally shift the playing field in NV and SC, as some of the frontrunners will stumble, and others may upset the field.

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