19:53

Labour faces a crucial test across middle England, Wales and Scotland to keep control of historic Labour county councils, in bellwether areas that could give the first picture of the scale of losses the party may face at the general election.

The battle that will be most keenly watched as a predictor of the party’s fortunes in England will be the West Midlands mayoralty, where party figures said it was “too close to call” between Labour’s Sion Simon and the Tory candidate Andy Street, the former boss of John Lewis.



Senior Labour figures said the party’s strength was its historic base and activists in the city, who could get out the vote on the day. “Labour have a far stronger base so there is some hope,” one source close to the campaign said.

In council elections, Labour is forecast to lose around 175 seats, half of them in Wales, and could lose control of all their current Scottish councils. With the Tories in the ascendency in the East and West Midlands, both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May launched their local election campaigns in Nottinghamshire.

Academics from the Political Studies Association have predicted 115 seats gained for the Conservatives in England, 85 for the Liberal Democrats, 75 losses for Labour. But they forecast the greatest damage to Ukip, with 105 losses. Labour is predicted to lose more than 100 in Wales alone and the Conservatives could gain 50 or more seats from a low base.