The NFL salary cap hasn’t been set for the 2015 season, but with projections between $145-150 million, the Patriots won’t have a ton of space to make moves. They currently have $155.86 million in salary cap commitments for 2015, according to NFL Players Association records, and that’s after rolling over $6.44 million in unused cap space from 2014.

In analyzing the Patriots’ roster and salary cap commitments, it’s safe to say they won’t be going on a spending spree again like last year, when they signed Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Julian Edelman, and Brandon LaFell. This offseason will be mostly about retaining the core of the championship team, and shifting some money around.

We’ve barely had enough time to catch our breath from Super Bowl XLIX, and the 2015 offseason is already here. The NFL scouting combine is next week in Indianapolis, and free agency opens in less than a month on March 10.

The good news is that number includes Revis’s $25 million salary cap number, which almost certainly will be lowered with a new contract — Patriots president Jonathan Kraft admitted on WEEI last week that Revis’s 2015 contract is really just a “placeholder” for a new deal.


Top 10 Patriots 2015 salary cap hits CB Darrelle Revis $25,000,000 QB Tom Brady $14,000,000 LB Jerod Mayo $10,287,500 DT Vince Wilfork $8,933,333 TE Rob Gronkowski $8,650,000 OL Nate Solder $7,438,000 OL Sebastian Vollmer $7,020,833 WR Danny Amendola $5,700,000 CB Brandon Browner $4,800,000 WR Julian Edelman $4,656,250 DATA : NFLPA Globe Staff

The other good news is a lot of big decisions will be made relatively soon. March 10 is the first official day of the 2015 NFL season, and it’s an important day for the Patriots, with more than $25 million due that day to Revis, Vince Wilfork, Browner, and Nate Solder in the form of guaranteed options. The Patriots also have to be compliant with the salary cap by 4 p.m. March 10, so there will be a lot of action in a relatively short amount of time.

The third bit of good news is that Aaron Hernandez comes off the books next year after counting $7.5 million this year. The Patriots currently only have $4.6 million in money tied up for players no longer with the team, with $4 million of that coming from Logan Mankins.


Dead money for 2015 Amounts owed to players no longer with Patriots Player Amount OL Logan Mankins $4,000,000 WR Josh Boyce $238,500 DE Jake Bequette $134,950 OL Jon Halapio $92,325 S Jemea Thomas $69,384 WR Jeremy Gallon $35,694 LB Steve Beauharnais $23,796 RB Stephon Houston $5,000 RB Roy Finch $3,334 S Shamiel Gary $3,334 CB Travis Hawkins $3,334 TE Justin Jones $3,334 TE Asa Watson $2,000 WR Mark Harrison $1,000 WR Kenbrell Thompkins $834 Total $4,616,819 Total salary cap commitments $155,858,547 DATA : NFLPA Ben Volin/Globe Staff

Keeping all that in mind, let’s take a look at the moves we expect the Patriots to make this offseason:

1. Re-structure and extend CB Darrelle Revis. The Wes Welker fiasco taught us to say “never say never” when it comes to the Patriots and their own free agents, but in knowing how much Revis and his camp liked playing in New England this past year, and how much the Patriots liked having him, we have every expectation that Revis will be back on a new deal. The Patriots simply don’t have it in their DNA to pay $20 million to one player ($12 million option bonus and $8 million salary), but they know they can’t let an elite player walk out the door, either. And the great news is that even if the Patriots hand Revis a giant wad of cash, it will still lower his cap number from $25 million (he only has $5 million of dead money as of now). Joe Haden and Richard Sherman set the bar at $14 million per season, and Brandon Carr set the bar for guaranteed money at $25.5 million. Revis will try to get as close to those marks as he can, and expect the Patriots to sign Revis for 3-5 years to spread out the signing bonus allocations.


2. Franchise tag safety Devin McCourty — and then negotiate. There’s little reason for the Patriots not to want to lock up McCourty long-term. He’ll be 28 in training camp, right in his athletic prime, and with five seasons under his belt he has developed into one of the best free safeties in the NFL. That’s why, assuming McCourty and the Patriots don’t agree to a new deal in the next week, the Patriots should apply the franchise tag to McCourty between the allowable period of Feb. 16 to March 2. But the Patriots shouldn’t just end things there. Franchise tag numbers for 2015 haven’t been set yet, but expect it to be between $8.5 million and $9.5 million for safeties. The Patriots would have until July 15 to negotiate a long-term deal with McCourty, and it would behoove them to sign him to a long-term deal that would make him happy and also lower his 2015 salary cap number.

3. Sign K Stephen Gostkowski. This one is pretty simple. Gostkowski is one of the best kickers in the game, and neither side has shown any inclination toward ending this relationship. Gostkowski, 31, just finished up a five-year, $13.6 million deal, and he should be able to get a similar deal this time around, if not more. The franchise tag is also a possibility, but it’s doubtful it ever would come to that between the Patriots and their kicker.

4. Re-structure DT Vince Wilfork and LB Jerod Mayo. The Patriots need to create cap space, and their two long-time defensive leaders might be the ones taking the hit. For Wilfork, this would be the second year in a row. And it will be interesting to see how this one plays out given how well Wilfork played last year — he played more than 70 percent of snaps and earned all $3 million of his incentives — and how much the Kraft family loves having Wilfork around. But Wilfork currently has the Patriots’ fourth-highest cap number at $8.9 million, and the Patriots can make all but $933,000 of it go away if they decline his $4 million option bonus that’s due March 10 — which also would make Wilfork a free agent. Ultimately, we think Big Vince will be back next year, and expect the Patriots and Wilfork to quietly work out a deal that will bring his cap number down to the $5-6 million range without much public bickering this time.


As for Mayo, the performances of Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins put Mayo’s roster spot in jeopardy, as does the frequent use of the nickel defense with only two linebackers on the field. And so does Mayo’s contract, with $7 million in cash due next year and a $10.29 million cap hit, third-highest on the team. But his torn patellar tendon might have saved his roster spot for next year. Mayo has an important clause in his contract — $4.5 million of his salary is guaranteed for injury. It’s possible that the Patriots could wait until Mayo is fully healthy in the summer or training camp to cut him, but realistically, we think Mayo will be asked to take a pay cut similar to what Wilfork did last year — cutting his base salary and cap number and converting a large chunk of it into incentives.


5. Keep an eye on WR Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has an $8 million roster bonus due March 15 that would make his 2015 cap number a ghastly $23.6 million. Given that Fitzgerald turns 32 in August, wasn’t the focal point of Bruce Arians’s offense last year (only 784 yards and two touchdowns), and can save the Cardinals $9.2 million in cap space with his release, we are monitoring this situation closely. And if Fitzgerald wants to chase a ring over chasing top dollar, there’s no better option than the Patriots, who we could envision signing Fitzgerald as an upgrade over Danny Amendola if the price is right. Fitzgerald-to-the-Patriots doesn’t seem likely at this point, but it’s worth monitoring.

6. Restructure WR Danny Amendola. Assuming the Patriots don’t get Fitzgerald, keeping Amendola for another year is the way to go. No, he never lived up to that contract he signed when he replaced Wes Welker. But Amendola carved out a nice role for himself at the end of this past season as a feisty No. 3 receiver, quality backup to Julian Edelman, and multi-faceted special teams contributor. Amendola also still has $3.6 million in dead cap money for 2015, which helps his case. The Patriots likely will ask Amendola to lower his $4 million base salary to create a couple million in cap space.

7. Bring back G Dan Connolly. The stats analytics websites don’t like Connolly, but he has value as a versatile interior lineman and veteran locker room leader. The Patriots should probably use a first- or second-round pick on a guard but also bring Connolly back for one or two more years.

8. Endangered players. Prime candidates to be salary cap cuts: CB Alfonzo Dennard, whose salary was bumped to $1.588 million after hitting performance escalators — a lot of money for a No. 6 CB who played in 19 percent of snaps last year and only has $14,000 in dead money; TE Michael Hoomanawanui, due to make $1.58 million but with only $380,000 in dead money and inconsistent as a blocker last year; guard Ryan Wendell, due to make $2.45 million next year, with a manageable $1.25 million in dead money.

9. Other moves: Let RB Shane Vereen walk in free agency unless he is willing to come back on a team-friendly deal . . . Sign RB Stevan Ridley to a one-year “prove-it” deal as he returns from ACL and MCL surgery . . . Consider a long-term deal for LT Nate Solder to lower his 2015 cap number from $7.438 million . . . Consider re-structuring Browner before paying him a $2 million option bonus March 10.

Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin.