Subramanian Swamy, the Scarlet Pimpernel of Indian politics has proved to be the harbinger of bad times for more than one political heavyweight. Ask the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Ms Jayalalithaa Jayaram. She’s the first sitting chief minister in the country to be disqualified from holding office after her conviction in a disproportionate assets case by a Karnataka court in September last year. Jayalalithaa suffered the ignominy of going to jail but was reinstated when the conviction was set aside by the Karnataka High Court in May this year. However, that tale’s not fully told since an appeal in the Supreme Court against the HC decision could well turn the tables against Jayalalithaa once again. Subramanian Swamy filed that case in 1996.

In September 2010 the Supreme Court was petitioned in seeking the prosecution of then Telecom Minister A Raja in something famously became the 2G case. It was none other than the ebullient Subramanian Swamy who had moved the Supreme Court.

Subramanian Swamy filed the National Herald case in 2012. Accusing Congress leaders of cheating and breach of trust in the acquisition of Associated Journals Ltd (AJL), Publishers of National Herald, by Young Indian Pvt Ltd (YIL),Swamy contended that the “take over” was done in a malicious manner to gain profit. Congress president Sonia Gandhi and vice president Rahul Gandhi are directors in YIL. Besides the Gandhis, Congress treasurer Motilal Vora, general secretary Oscar Fernandes, journalist Suman Dubey and technocrat Sam Pitroda were also named in the case.

Swamy has alleged that YIL has paid just Rs50 lakh to obtain the right to recover Rs90.25 crore loan the AJL owed to the Congress party. He says the Rs 90.25 crores owing to the Congress Party could easily be paid off by partial sale of assets. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi own 76 per cent of YIL. The complaint has also alleged that the loan, taken from party funds and given to AJL, was “illegal”.

The Congress says that no director of YIL has derived any financial benefit from either the company or its dealings with AJL. It further claims that all the assets and income of AJL continue to remain with the company and not gone to YIL, YIL directors or YIL shareholders. By advancing Rs 50 lakhs to AJL and taking over the responsibility of recovering the Rs 90 crore debt,YIL had effectively wiped out AJL’s debt enabling it to raise bank loans to refurbish its properties or build on them to increase its income. The legal merits of the case will be decided by the courts although that’s likely to take a long time going by past experience.

Meanwhile, both sides say the case has been “politicised.”The Congress claims that the Enforcement Directorate (ED)closed its case investigations in August this year “because there was no evidence of any wrongdoing. But the then ED Director was sacked and just a month later in September 2015 the case was reopened.” The Congress alleges that senior BJP leaders “have made frequent and partisan pronouncements in the media — a clear attempt to influence public opinion and tarnish the reputation of the Congress Party and its leadership on a false pretext.”

It has redoubled efforts to disrupt Parliament. This means that crucial legislation such as the ones relating to GST and Land Acquisition will remain in cold storage. The BJP has retaliated by accusing the Congress of defending the indefensible.

Whatever else it may be, the National Herald case is clearly “political.” Anything that Subramanian Swamy touches, apart from his morning idlis and forenoon thayir sadam, has to be political and so is this case. It could upset the anti-BJP applecart in the coming months. Of course, the reverse also could well be true. The anti-BJP formation that swept the Bihar assembly elections last month owes much to Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. True, the Congress came in a distant fourth in that election but Sonia and Rahul Gandhi were crucial to bringing together the irresistible Lalu Yadav and the immovable Nitish Kumar. Without their earnest efforts, the unity wouldn’t have been possible. Evidently it is Sonia Gandhi who convinced Lalu Yadav not only to team up with Nitish but also to allow him to play “first fiddle” in the concert! It stands to reason therefore that anything that could adverse impact the Gandhis would be a major setback to the functioning of an anti-BJP electoral front: precisely what the National Herald case could achieve.

Assembly elections are due in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Puducherry and Assam where the terms of the present legislatures are ending in May and June next year. The Congress in general and the Gandhis in particular need to perform superlatively in these elections in order to keep the post-Bihar momentum going. Though a junior partner in Bihar, the Congress, happens to be the only all-India party in that front providing it with the “political glue” to bind it together and attract other regional allies in untapped states such as UP, Odisha, Seemandhra and Telengana. Any decline in the Congress’ fortunes is likely to affect the entire block adversely. The National Herald Case could severely tarnish the image of the Gandhis and hurt the entire anti-BJP front.

Kerala and Tamil Nadu don’t really count in this calculation. The former famously votes alternately for the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPM-led Left Democratic Front. The latter is witness to a two-horse race between Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK and the DMK led by M Karunanidhi and son MK Stalin. West Bengal and Assam could prove significant. The Congress has been in power in Assam for three consecutive terms. A strong anti-incumbency wave coupled with a resurgent BJP could spell doom for the Congress in Assam. Recent elections have been more than unkind to the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo.

Having lost Delhi ignominiously soon after winning India and then trounced in Bihar, the duo are battling for one famous victory to redeem themselves. And Assam is that battleground. Modi has set a target, “Mission 84” to win those many seats in the 126 strong State Assembly. He has ensured that at least one of his Central Ministers visits Assam every week. The National Herald “ghotala” would be grist to Modi’s electoral rhetoric.

West Bengal could prove interesting. The Congress opted to contest the 2011 Assembly elections as a junior partner of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, winning 42 of the states 294 assembly seats. The two parted ways thereafter and the Congress won just four of West Bengal’s 42 seats in last year’s Lok Sabha elections. Is it possible that the two will reunite once again? That could perhaps be the silver lining for the Congress.

However the long shadow of the Herald case could well put paid to all of this. Not too many will be prepared to take a chance if the image of the Gandhi’s gets tarnished any further, and this time Manmohan Singh won’t be eligible to play the fall guy.

The writer is a senior journalist and chairman, APCA