We've watched the rapid evolution of Google's beta Chrome browser since it first appeared. Chrome, apparently, will not remain in an indefinite period of beta testing for the rest of its life. Speaking to The Times, Sundar Pichai, Google vice president, stated that the browser will exit beta in January. Google, meanwhile, is exploring its distribution options and examining the various ways it might improve its market share. "We will probably do distribution deals,” Pinchai told The Times. "We could work with an OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) and have them ship computers with Chrome preinstalled."

Doing so could significantly change the browser market's competitive landscape. As of the end of October, Microsoft commands some 71 percent of the market, with Firefox hovering near 20 percent, according to NetApplications. Two-thirds of that last nine percent is held by Safari, with a ragtag collection of other clients collectively holding on to about three percent of the total number of web users. Shipping Chrome as the default browser on a system wouldn't have an immediate impact on browser standings, but in the longer term, Google's share of the market would almost certainly rise. Google is also working on Macintosh and Linux versions of its shiny toy.

Microsoft insists it can fend off any challenge Chrome might pose. When asked how OEM distribution of Chrome might effect Microsoft's market share, John Curran, the UK head of Windows, told The Times that "The browser space is competitive and people end up choosing what’s best for them. For the overall majority of UK users, that’s Internet Explorer."

Curran's comments gloss over the fact that many consumers don't actually do much choosing of Internet Explorer. History suggests that the vast majority of users are actually remarkably agnostic over what browser they use, and often opt for whatever ships on the system. If Google does cut deals to distribute Chrome as the default browser, it would be an interesting test of whether or not Microsoft's brand-loyalty perception is grounded in anything even resembling fact. Currently, Firefox usage in the UK (approximately 12 percent) is much lower than the worldwide average of ~20 percent, but whether those numbers reflect a genuine preference for Microsoft products or inertia is unclear.

Microsoft had initially planned to launch Internet Explorer 8 before the end of 2008, but announced yesterday that its return salvo will be delayed into 2009. The company now plans to drop a release candidate (RC) version of the browser in the first quarter of 2009, with the actual launch occurring thereafter. If the IE8 team holds that schedule, I expect we'll see IE8 late in the first quarter or early in the second—the window between RC availability and product launch is usually short.

Google hasn't pumped a great deal of effort into promoting Chrome to date, but this will change once the browser exits beta. In his interview with The Times, Pichai indicated that the search giant intends to back Chrome with all of the massive resources at its disposal. "We will throw our weight behind it," said Pichai. "We’ve been conservative because it's still in beta, but once we get it out of beta we will work hard at getting the word out, promoting to users, and marketing will be a part of that."



Internet Explorer's adoption curve/use rate. Image courtesy of Wikipedia

It's hard not to grin just a little when you read something like that. When Microsoft went after Netscape and began bundling IE as a no-cost addition to Windows, a number of observers cried foul. Microsoft's size, cash reserves, and OEM contracts gave the company an overwhelming advantage when it came to negotiating which browser would ship on a PC.



Netscape Navigator's market share. Image courtesy of Wikipedia

If you don't know how that story ended, it's pictured in the graphs above. Since the launch of IE3 in 1996 to today, Microsoft has never had to compete for browser share against a company as large and powerful as itself. Once Chrome launches, that's going to change; Google has the money and the expertise to match Microsoft dollar-for-dollar and feature-for-feature. If both companies stay on track, 2009 may be the year we finally test John Curran's hypothesis, both in the UK and around the world.