In exactly 50 days, Ragen claims she will swim 1.2 miles, bike 56 miles, and run 13.1 miles, all in under 8-1/2 hours. Well, that’s not really an accurate statement anymore. Ragen has hedged her bets a couple times this year, saying she doesn’t fear failure in January, and telling Body Positive Yoga she doesn’t mind if she fails at the 70.3 back in an April interview. In her latest IronFat update she talks about her “haters” hoping she’ll fail, and that she’s “chosen a big goal” which means she could fail, but it wouldn’t be a big deal. She says she and her supporters have bought plane tickets to fly to Tempe, and cryptically mentions that her girlfriend Julianne will be making the six hour drive to Tempe alone with her bike and other gear.

In recent weeks, Ragen has been slowly concocting a perfect storm of excuses for why she won’t finish the 70.3 this October. Her response to getting sick and missing several days of training earlier this month was to watch movies and read inspirational quotes. She’s managed to organize several major events that interfere with a critical stage of her training. First there is the Weight Stigma Conference, trip to Dublin, and HAES speaking engagement in London that put her out of the country for at least 9 days mid-September. Then she has two weeks to prepare for the Fat Activism Conference that runs from October 9-11. Now Ragen claims she she is flying directly to Tempe from a mysterious unannounced east coast speaking engagement 2-3 days later, which is why her girlfriend is driving alone.

It’s pretty clear Ragen is setting herself up for a contrived failure. She complains about her “psychic trolls” making proclamations about her ability to complete the 70.3 when she specifically shares no details of her training plan on her training blog (the irony of Ragen making fun of “psychics” should not be ignored). Ragen says her training plan is “proprietary” (her trainer’s plans are available with a Google search). She’s so narcissistic she can’t help sharing even the most minor victory, so it’s safe to assume what small scraps of information she has posted on her IronFat blog represent the current state of her abilities. On that note, nothing has changed since our previous Road to Tempe post.

Swimming: We haven’t heard much about swimming for several months. The “open water course” she was planning to take in May is long forgotten, so it’s probably safe to say she still hasn’t done any open water swimming. Pace remains a mystery. Biking: Her last update was about bike training. On a short trail ride with friends, she was excited about being able to make a figure eight in a parking lot, and was able to pedal up a small hill on only her second attempt without mis-shifting or having to get off and walk. She also managed to ride a single block in traffic while “freaking out internally”. This is the same person who claims she is almost ready to ride 56 miles on a crowded road course through several loops. Running: Ragen has written almost nothing meaningful about running. We know she hired a new running coach and paid him to ignore a major component of the running method he teaches. She wrote a long rambling IronFat post about her “long runs” where she made the absurd implication that she now “runs” up to 24 miles at a time. We finally got a small clue about her running when she posted a Facebook update a month ago where she said her typical average “running” pace is “barely faster than a walk”. For a normal person a walking pace would be about 3.1 mph, but for Ragen it’s more like 2.1 mph based on her elite 12:20 marathon PR.

In the meantime Ragen has had plenty of time to do media interviews, bolstering her reputation with her upcoming IRONMAN appearance. A Women’s Running article says she “likes to participate in marathons and half marathons“. In a Mashable article published today she rehashes old stories and is described as “a dancer who has run in several marathons and is currently training for IRONMAN”. It’s pretty clear the authors of both articles did no fact checking whatsoever and relied on Ragen’s vague statements about herself.

There isn’t anything else to say because Ragen has nothing to say about her own training. 50 days and counting until Tempe…