What is happening?

Malaysia goes to the polls on Wednesday 9 May to decide who will be the nation’s seventh prime minister. The day has been declared a bank holiday. It is building up to be the one of the most hotly contested elections in the country’s history, and will also be the biggest ever with a record 2,333 candidates.



Who are the main players?



This election pits current prime minister Najib Razak, in power since 2009, against Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who was also Malaysia’s longest running prime minister between 1981 and 2003. At 92-years-old, Mahathir has decided to return to the political fray. If he wins, it will make him the world’s oldest leader.



This battle is personal as well as political. Najib was once Mahathir’s protege whom he groomed for office and made sure would be prime minister. Mahathir has now called his role in Najib’s rise “the biggest mistake of my life”.

After Najib was implicated in the 1MDB corruption scandal in 2015, Mahathir turned against him. He had retired from politics but earlier this year declared his return to politics, switching political allegiances and joining the opposition coalition with one goal: to take down Najib.

Najib is head of UMNO, the main political party in the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional. While Mahathir was also part of UMNO when he was in power first time round, he has now set up his own political party Parti Pribumi Bersatu, which joined the opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan.

Another party that will play a crucial role in the elections is the conservative Islamic party PAS. While they are likely to gain only a small number of seats, in the increasingly likely event neither main party gets a majority, Pas will have the power to chose who to form a coalition with.

Quick Guide 1MDB Show The scandal 1Malaysia Development Berhad, was set up in 2009 to promote economic development. The Malaysian prime minister, Najib Razak, chaired its advisory board and, according to the US Justice Department, top executives and associates of Najib looted $4.5bn from the fund between 2009 and 2014, laundering it through the US, Singapore, Switzerland and other countries. Hundreds of millions landed in Najib's bank account, though he denies any wrongdoing. Where the money went The US Justice Department is seeking to recover money from the fund it says was gambled in Las Vegas, used to buy hotels, apartments, a luxury yacht, a jet, diamond jewellery, art works and to finance Hollywood films including the Wolf of Wall Street and Dumb and Dumber To. The investigation US prosecutors have alleged layers of foreign bank accounts and shell companies were used to launder the money and named Low Taek Jho, a friend of Najib’s stepson, as a key figure in the conspiracy. In one email he wrote "Looks like we may have hit a goldmine" after organising a 1MDB deal that would later allegedly become a money laundering vehicle. Singapore has fined eight banks for failing to carry out proper anti-money laundering measures in relation to 1MDB and given prison sentences to several bankers. Political impact A parliamentary inquiry found many irregularities but had no mandate to prosecute so, outraged by the scandal, 92-year-old former leader Mahathir Mohammad came out of political retirement and opposition united behind him for the elections. The government recently passed a "fake news" law that could be used to further stifle reporting on the case within Malaysia.

How long can a 92-year-old stay in power?



Part of Mahathir’s agreement to lead the opposition is that after two years he will cede power to Anwar Ibrahim. The latter is currently in jail, serving a second sentence for sodomy (which he claims was politically motivated). Anwar was also formerly a Mahathir protege, but Mahathir had him jailed in 1999 when it seemed he was getting too powerful and popular.



The pair have now set aside their differences. If he wins the election, Mahathir will get Anwar pardoned and then make way for him to take over as prime minister.

What are the big issues?



The biggest issues are corruption and the cost of living. Najib’s alleged role in the 1MDB scandal, where $2.6bn of a government fund was embezzled – with some $681m allegedly transferred into Najib’s own bank account – has been a key part of the opposition’s message in trying to move voters against Barisan Nasional. Najib’s introduction of a VAT-type goods and services tax has also been unpopular, making day to day life more expensive, and so reducing the cost of living has been at the core of both coalition’s manifestos.



Who is likely to win?



Despite Mahathir still commanding vast loyalty across the country, it is presumed that Najib will win due to his recent redrawing of electoral boundaries to massively favour the ruling coalition. Malaysia uses the same first-past-the-post electoral system as the UK. Bersih, Malaysia’s electoral reform organisation, says Najib will be able to win the election with just 16.5% of the popular vote. The recent introduction of a “fake news” law was also seen as a way to prevent people speaking out against the Najib, a concern validated by the fact that Mahathir was among the first investigated under the law for claiming his plane had been sabotaged by the ruling coalition.

However, the tide seems to be turning against Najib. If Najib does poorly in the election, there is already talk of a post-election leadership challenge.

A recent survey by independent pollster the Merdeka Centre concluded that Mahathir’s Pakatan Harapan coalition is likely to win 43.7% of the popular vote, with Najib’s Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition expected to win 40.3%. If the opposition wins, it will be the first time since Malaysia became independent in 1957.