Editor’s Note: This is excerpted from a much longer piece with charts by Buiter, chief global economist with Citigroup.

This paper develops the idea that a global recession – a period of global output below potential output – is a high and rapidly rising risk. We argue that recession may now be the most likely outcome over the next few years. This is indeed the view now held by Citi’s Global Economics team, although the debate across our broader economics team remains fervent.

It...