What a show this week! I’m beginning to see why Jeff Probst has been calling this one of the best Survivor seasons in the show’s history. I had no idea who was going home until the final vote was read, and that always makes for the best episodes.

A couple notes on the methodology behind our rankings this week. First, we did them with the merge in mind. If you purposely avoid episode previews, stop reading now, but if not, then you know we’re headed for a merge next show. Second, if you’re new to the blog, we come up with our rankings by factoring in both short and long term prospects, with a preference towards the long term. For instance, we know Joe’s a major threat to be voted out, and people will be gunning for him as soon as the merge starts. He could very well be the next to go. Yet he’s also one of, if not the biggest, threat to win the game, given his charisma and strategy. So that’s why he’s ranked much higher than someone like Hali. We don’t envision her being targeted anytime soon, but she also has zero chance of winning this game.

Alright, enough of an introduction. Time to get down to business. Here are our Week 5 Survivor Power Rankings:

1. Jenn

It was a quiet week for Jenn thanks to Mike handing her tribe the immunity challenge, but there is no reason for her to be dropped from the top of the rankings. Weeks like this are the ones when you don’t want to stand out because that means you probably pissed someone off and put an unnecessary target on your back. Everyone seems to like her, and she is going to have a lot of allies to choose from once the merge comes. The best thing about Jenn is that she has been able to accumulate allies somewhat under the radar and really seems to realize how important it is to avoid standing out until they get closer to the end of the game. She has also performed very well in challenges, and it isn’t crazy to see her winning an immunity challenge or two. Oh, and let’s not forget that she still has an idol up her sleeve that she may not have to even use until much later in the game.

2. Joe

Joe survived the scare on Wednesday and it looks like he’s in a decent position heading into the merge. He’s about to be reunited with Hali and Jenn, and that threesome was the tightest alliance in the game before the tribe swap. We may never know the main force behind Sierra staying with Dan and Mike, but there’s certainly a strong possibility that talking on the beach with Joe, with whom she seemed pretty comfortable around, ultimately swayed her back to voting with the blue collars; recall that before the vote Sierra said “the blue collars don’t care about me, they’re not going to keep me around, they’re just using me for the moment.” Joe’s showed a strong strategic and social game so far, and the no collars have a couple of directions (Sierra, Carolyn) to go to grab the majority in numbers. While Joe’s my current bet to win the game, because he’s such a big threat he’s always going to be targeted heavily. The risk that he’s voted off soon is the reason Jenn ranks ahead of him for now.

3. Mike

The Mike from the first episode appears to be back in business. I loved what I saw from him in that episode, and it looks like he realized that yelling at people over stupid stuff was not doing him any favors. It was huge that he was able to get Sierra to vote with his alliance because it showed that he has the ability to sway votes to his side, which is obviously huge if you want to make it to the end. Choosing to vote out Joaquin over Rodney was actually a smart move upon further review because he must have realized how many people dislike Rodney and figured he’d be easier to get voted out if there is a merge. Speaking of the merge, Mike seems like he’s in fantastic shape heading into it because he lost Rodney as an ally but potentially gained Joe, which means he also gained Joe’s allies. Throwing the challenge was a huge risk, but it ended up working perfectly for him because now his bond with Kelly is seemingly inseparable. This is especially important because he’s going to need to use whatever connections she made while she was on the other tribe. At this point in the game, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Mike has more positive connections than anyone else.

4. Tyler

After being bullish on Tyler during his time on the white collar tribe, I’m not quite sure what The T Freddy was up to over the past six days. It was discouraging to hear that Tyler and Joaquin weren’t receptive to talking strategy with Joe. Sure, we know that Tyler bonded with Sierra early post-tribe swap, but he and Joaq still needed another member for a majority alliance. The fact that Tyler was counting on Rodney has me pumping the brakes a bit on his prospects of winning the game. Tyler’s seemed like a pretty perceptive guy throughout the season, but it was a major error in judgement not to realize the hate Sierra had for Rodney. After seeing her and Joe interact on the beach, I have little doubt that a Tyler, Joaquin, Joe and Sierra alliance would have voted together last night, and possibility into the merge. I still think Tyler has a good mind for the game, but he needs to make alliances fast once the tribes hit the same beach, or else he’ll be voted out sooner than later given his physical strength. Based on his performance on the blue tribe, I’ve lost some faith in him. But he certainly has the opportunity to get it back.

5. Carolyn

This was another quiet week for Carolyn who seems to be quietly waiting to make a move, while she tries to get a read on the other contestants. She is in somewhat of a position of power because she can try to make a big move eventually and just use her idol in case it backfires. However, I don’t see her as someone who would make a move unless she’s sure it will work. She might be the most analytical and calculating player remaining left in the game and has the potential to go very far because of it. It seems like everything she does or says is for a reason, and I don’t see her making any impulsive mistakes. Her one weakness is that she doesn’t really seem to be capable of being a part of a strong alliance because she’s not the most likable or trusting person. This might be good in the short term, but there will come a time where she’s not going to want to be on the outside looking in. I trust her to try and remedy this once the merge happens, but for now it is a cause for concern.

6. Sierra

I have to admit that I had no idea who Sierra was going to vote for going into tribal, but I think she made the right decision by choosing to spare Joe. Mike and Joe, sorry Dan, are two of the strongest people left in the game, and it benefited her much more in the long run to remain in good terms with them over Rodney. I know that she really hates Dan, so the fact that she was able to put that aside was a promising sign. However, we have reached the point in the rankings where a bit of a gap is emerging. The difference between Sierra’s chances of winning and Carolyn’s is substantial, which means that Sierra has a lot of work to do. She is one of the more emotional players in the game and takes things too personally, and I’m pretty sure that’ll cloud her decision making abilities at some point in the game even though she fought through it this week. She’ll be an interesting one to watch after the merge. She could either rise to the challenge or completely fall apart.

7. Kelly

Kelly had the right to feel incredibly gratified for Mike’s challenge throw on Wednesday, even if some of the move was driven by Rodney gunning for Joe. Kelly has a rock hard alliance with Mike and Dan right now, and having strong allies like that is key for both short and long term prospects in the game. Kelly’s position is going to come down to how the no collar and blue collar tribes shake out. Joe voted with the blues while Kelly voted with the no collars, so it’s easy to envision a scenario where they join together and vote out a Rodney or Tyler. It’s also easy to see how the no collars will be pitted against the blue collars and the fight is on to grab the remaining white collars and Rodney. Either way, even if Kelly is on the wrong side, it’s hard to envision her being voted out before Mike. The issue with Kelly is that I haven’t seen much strategy yet, and her dismal performance in the immunity challenge doesn’t give me high hopes either. But she also hasn’t had much opportunity to show her gamesmanship, so maybe she’ll surprise us when we reach the merge.

8. Shirin

Dare I say it, but Shirin’s the biggest wild card in the game. Mike’s actions were intended to save Kelly but actually saved Shirin instead. With the merge coming next episode, I don’t see Shirin being targeted for a long, long time. Majority alliances in the merge aim to take out alliance leaders and strong strategic and physical players, because they pose the most threat to their existing majority. Shirin has shown none of those attributes yet in the game. Yet I’m getting the sense that Survivor is setting us up for a redemption story. We got a lot of Shirin screen time on Wednesday, and it really did seem like Shirin was ingratiating herself within the tribe. We know she’s smart from her job in the outside world, and we saw her finally gain some self-awareness after the blindside of Max. It’s becoming increasingly likely that her and Max just nerded out together as they both loved Survivor, and it took them being separated for one of them to actually start playing the game. I don’t predict Shirin will be much of a story for the next couple of episodes, and I’m excited to see what she can do if she sticks around for awhile.

9. Hali

As stated in the introduction, Hali is safe from being voted out for the foreseeable future, but has no chance of winning based on the game she’s played so far. I would actually go a step further and say that she has a great shot at making the final tribal because she’d be no threat to whoever chooses to bring her. It’s not that she’s unlikable or completely unaware of how to play the game. Her problem is that she doesn’t seem to have a big enough personality to make herself stand out in any way. Having said that, it is still extremely early in the game, and the merge gives everyone a chance to make up ground. She could prove me wrong and execute a huge blindside next week against someone like Joe or Jenn. The way she’s played so far makes be feel like she’ll be fine sticking around until the end. She has a strong alliance and seems like she’d be fine keeping it together, but you never really can be sure with the quieter ones.

10. Will

It seems like a slam dunk assumption, and I’ve been doing it throughout the rankings: the four no collars will reunite back into an alliance when the merge happens. But nothing in this game is certain, and there’s definitely a chance Will looks for greener pastures if he feels a new alliance offers him a better place in the game. Will didn’t stick with the plan to vote out Nina, instead opting for Vince, and he can’t be too happy knowing he got a vote from Hali when Nina was ousted. He knows he’s on the bottom of that four person alliance, and he’s smart enough to realize that barring a miraculous immunity challenge win, he’s not making the final three with that group. Additionally, given Will’s struggles in challenges, he’s not a threat at all to go when the merge starts. Having no strong allies hurts him, as does his questionable strategic decisions (voting out Vince when he could have aligned with him and Nina) so far. But he’s the type of player who can make it far just based on the fact he’s been a weak player up to this point.

11. Rodney

There’s another huge gap in the rankings between Will and the Rodney/Dan duo. As far as I’m concerned, Rodney is basically tied with Dan for last place and the most likely to be voted out. I feel like they’re trying to see who can piss people off more without being voted out. Rodney was blindsided this week, and it was so easy because he has an arrogance and confidence that he has not yet earned. In theory, trying to take out Joe before the merge was a really smart play, but his execution was just terrible. He assumed way too much and didn’t even consider that people not liking him meant that they may not want to vote with him. His attempt to get Sierra to vote with him was terrible, and she must have felt insulted by it. The only positive from this week was that they chose to vote out Joaquin instead of him. He is in the worst possible position going into the merge, and it’s tough to imagine digging himself out of the hole he’s created. Every female contestant hates him at this point, and he seems ready to turn his back on his blue collar mates, which would be a critical error. His physical stature is all he has going for him, and that can’t keep him around forever.

12. Dan

Dan has been making some improvements lately, such as realizing he totally botched his apology to Sierra. And he has a strong base alliance with Mike and Kelly. But that’s about it. No one else likes the guy, and I can’t imagine it’ll get much better at the merge. I mean, when you almost lose Sierra to Rodney, you know you’ve done something wrong. His social and strategic skills have been non-existent to this point, and he’s the least likely to win out of everyone remaining when he’s making comments to Sierra like “Close your mouth, open your ears, and watch what happens” when he’s trying to woo her vote. Because of his lack of challenge prowess, he may not be voted out soon even if he finds himself in the minority alliance, although there’s always a chance he gets on enough people’s nerves to cause them to get rid of him.

Hope you enjoyed the rankings – let us know if you agree or disagree by leaving a comment or by tweeting us at @TribeHasSpoke. And come back on Monday, when we’ll have a merge preview post up that analyzes the different scenarios and offers our best guess on what’ll happen when the castaways get together on one beach.