Republicans might be riding high after Neil Gorsuch was confirmed to the Supreme Court, but reality could come crashing down on the GOP in two upcoming special elections.

On April 18, voters will go to the polls in Georgia’s 6th District, vacated by Health & Human Services Secretary Tom Price. Donald Trump narrowly carried the district over Hillary Clinton in the suburban Atlanta seat last fall, but it’s a traditionally Republican seat.

Former Capitol Hill aide Jon Ossoff, 30, is riding the Democratic energy stemming from Trump’s election and raised an astounding $8.3 million in the first three months of the year — a staggering amount for a House candidate. For some perspective, former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland took an entire cycle to raise $10.7 million for his Ohio Senate race last year.

In the beginning, Ossoff looked like a long shot to make the June 20 runoff, but now he has the opportunity to win the race outright by winning a majority in the open primary later this month. Democrats are dominating early voting and, most importantly, could be changing the makeup of the electorate by turning out low propensity voters.

Most public and private polls have Ossoff in the low to mid-40s and leading the field by a wide margin. Based on his position, the difficulty of accurately predicting special election turnout, the polls’ margins of error, and Ossoff’s financial advantage, we are changing the Inside Elections/Roll Call rating from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.