Republican Greg Abbott is considered the early favorite over Democrat Wendy Davis. | AP Photos The 2 states of Texas

AUSTIN, Texas — A tale of two Texases is about to be told in the showdown for governor here between Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Wendy Davis.

In Abbott’s version, the Lone Star State is a humming engine of low taxes and job creation, a magnet for business that’s the envy of the nation. Davis sees a distinctly darker story of a state with underfunded schools, too many uninsured residents and an economy propped up by low-wage jobs.


Those clashing narratives will likely drive what looks to be a high-profile, high-dollar contest between Abbott, the state’s attorney general, and Davis, a state senator with a national profile who is expected to enter the race next week.

( QUIZ: Do you know Wendy Davis?)

She catapulted into the limelight this summer with her filibuster of an abortion measure, and her presence in the race ensures high outside interest in a contest that would otherwise be a foregone conclusion for the Republican.

According to the Abbott camp, the Texas economy “is No. 1 in the nation,” offering a thriving business climate that lures people from all over the country — and, GOP observers say, a compelling reason to keep a Republican in the governor’s mansion, in keeping with the last two decades.

“We’re going to stay focused on the things that [have] kept Texas the last bastion of freedom, but also the No. 1 job creator in this nation,” Abbott told POLITICO in an interview. “That is less government, low taxes, reasonable regulations and the right-to-work laws that have prevented disasters like we’ve seen in Detroit.”

Texas has plenty to brag about. It consistently ranks among the top states to do business by outlets like Chief Executive magazine and CNBC, is home to some of the fastest-growing cities in the country, leads on job creation and consistently boasts a lower unemployment rate than the national average.

“[Davis is] going to have to say, ‘Vote against the Republican nominee because Texas is not doing well,’” said Texas GOP chairman Steve Munisteri. “I just think the majority of Texans won’t agree with that.”

( Also on POLITICO: Dewhurst to Texas GOP: Don't get complacent)

But Davis is likely to build her case around a different set of statistics.

“What [Texans] care about is public education,” she said on Sunday, speaking here at the Texas Tribune Festival. “Can their child go to college? Is there a path for their child’s future, is there a path to have a good job, are they going to have adequate health care? These are things that really matter to people.”

Abbott is considered the early frontrunner and even Democrats acknowledge that Davis faces long odds in the deep-red state, which voted for Mitt Romney by a 16-point margin. Abbott entered the race with more than $20 million in his war chest, while Davis started off with $1 million, though her newfound national notoriety should help on that front.

( PHOTOS: Wendy Davis’s filibuster)

But Democrats view her as their best chance to recapture the governorship for the first time since 1994. They argue that Davis — who worked her way through Harvard Law as a single mother and has captured the party’s imagination with some well-picked legislative fights — uniquely energizes both state and national Democrats and has some crossover appeal.

“There’s a lot to talk about in that sense along the theme that Texas can and should be doing better than it is,” said longtime Texas Democrat Harold Cook, who knows Davis well. “The highest rate of uninsured in the country, education numbers that are abysmal, high poverty rate. It really fits in well with the issues she’s been working hard on as a state senator.”

She offered the closing keynote at the festival, an address that comes as Texas again clocked in with the highest rate of uninsured people in the country. About a quarter of the state lacks health insurance, according to new numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau released this month.

“Sadly, Texas once again has the highest rate of uninsured in the nation,” Davis tweeted last week. “Texans know we can do better than that.”

Texas also ranks 49th in the country in per pupil spending, and near the bottom for teachers’ salaries, according to a National Education Association assessment earlier this year that included D.C. Davis made her statewide name in 2011 by filibustering education cuts, though Abbott also said that he would make education a focus.

“You can’t simultaneously brag about the healthy economy we have and compare it to the rest of the country, that’s a fair thing to do — but then simultaneously not own the fact that in spite of the healthy economy, we’re not investing in the future of what the state can and should be,” she said at the festival.

Women’s health issues would inevitably be another flash point between the two campaigns following Davis’s abortion filibuster last summer, which temporarily derailed a restrictive abortion measure in the statehouse.

Planned Parenthood, the ACLU, and the Center for Reproductive Rights filed a federal lawsuit last week— “Planned Parenthood v. Abbott” — to block elements of the measure Davis filibustered, which ultimately passed. Reproductive rights activists often see Texas as a front line in their battle, and Davis as their heroine. She is also considered a fighter on issues like equal pay for women.

Republicans say Davis would have a tough time running on a platform that focused too heavily on education, health and women’s issues, arguing that those issues play to Democratic voters already. But Democrats believe that Davis can expand the base to include moderate suburban women who are motivated by issues like education, and who are angry about closures of women’s health clinics around the state in the past several years, including some that didn’t offer abortions.

They are also betting that a competitive Democrat like Davis would draw a swath of Hispanic voters in this majority-minority state who otherwise would not turn out.

“Are we creating the kind of climate to [support] a healthy workforce and a vibrant economy?” Davis said. “That’s what people care about.”

Neither side expects Davis to make abortion itself a focal point of her campaign.

“Her argument [in an election] will be that despite Gov. Perry’s and Attorney General Abbott’s claim that Texas is the best place to live, to build a business, you have a state with high poverty, the lowest levels of basic health insurance, terrible results in terms of schools,” said a senior national Democrat familiar with the race. “A low median income, tons of low-wage jobs. This is not the Texas that will have a thriving middle class in years to come.”

But Matt Mackowiak, a GOP strategist with deep Texas ties, said it could be tricky for Davis to challenge the Texas economic growth model.

“People in Texas are happy to be in Texas, broadly speaking,” Mackowiak said, adding that it can be risky to take on that famous Texan pride. “You have to run against Texas a little. It’s a bit of a challenge when people think that the state is headed, broadly speaking, in the right direction. You have to convince people they’re wrong. In order to do that, you have to sort of insult the state.”

History suggests that it’s tough to win elections with a downcast message. That’s especially the case in the Lone Star State, where every politician knows better than to mess with Texans’ mythical level of pride in their home state.

Longtime Davis strategist Matt Angle insisted that Davis could take on the status quo with an optimistic, forward-looking approach, and in her Sunday address, she was careful to frequently pay homage to the “vibrant” and “healthy” Texas economy. Whether she can pull that off could be a key test of her candidacy.

“What is fairly said is that there’s no question that Texas is a great place, the best place to live in the country,” he said. “A strong, dynamic economy, all of those things are true despite its failed leaders, not because of them. Texas citizens are being shortchanged. Texas can do even better.”