But on Wednesday, he didn't just distance himself from Abbott; he gave the Prime Minister an almighty spray. At a doorstop at Spring Street the day after the federal government killed off any chance of gay marriage being legalised this term, Guy accused Abbott and his supporters of "poisoning the well of goodwill for all other elected officials in the country" by not allowing Liberals a conscience vote to determine the issue based on their personal beliefs. "I've got to say, I think Australians are utterly sick of federal politics, and I'm not surprised why," he told reporters. "People who feel they should be bound on matters of conscience by a party vote ... need to go back and look at the rationale in which our party was founded by Robert Menzies. It wasn't one of binding votes, it was one of conscience. We should be proud of that, and members should be able to exercise that – full stop." It was an explosive comment, even for a former planning minister known for his occasionally fiery temperament. But the fact that he chose to come out stronger than any other Liberal MP so far (and the fact that many state and federal colleagues have privately commended him since) says a lot about the mood within the Victorian branch.

Six months after promising to hit the reset button, Abbott has lost so much political capital that Guy has little choice but to keep his distance, just as Daniel Andrews did with Julia Gillard at the height of Labor's toxic leadership crisis a few years ago. Yes, he supports marriage equality and genuinely believes "it's about time" Australia caught up. More so, he was genuinely peeved by Tuesday night's events, because he passionately believes in the right for a free vote and individual choice. But Guy is also an astute politician who knows that in order to beat Labor at the next state election, he needs to pick up at least seven extra seats in a political environment that has swung more to the left than it has in years. Abbott is often viewed through the prism of the issues he opposes – marriage equality, asylum seekers, climate change. Tying himself to a prime minister with very little voter credit left in the bank is hardly a winning formula, is it? As one insider put it last week: "Whatever the issue, if we can somehow draw a distinction between us and the Feds, then that's a good thing."

More broadly, Abbott's latest position on marriage equality is as disingenuous as it is confusing. In a few months, he has gone from rejecting the idea of a popular vote in the wake of Ireland's historic referendum to suddenly embracing the idea – a move that moderates view as an attempt to terminate the issue in the long term. The thing is, the majority of the community either supports same-sex marriage or couldn't care less either way. By prolonging the inevitable in order to preserve his conservative base, the Prime Minister has again shown an inability to move with the times or treat people equally. By engaging in party-room chicanery, he's also cast himself as someone willing to divide his own team and undermine one of the fundamental principles on which his party was founded. And by doing all of the above, he's just about guaranteed that gay marriage will be one of the defining issues of the next federal election, exposing his MPs to activists' campaigns and potentially depriving the government of clear air to talk about other pressing national issues: jobs, infrastructure, the economy. All of this is likely to be particularly acute in Victoria, where Abbott's approval is the lowest of all the states (31 per cent); several Liberal marginal seats hang in the balance (including Corangamite, La Trobe, and Deakin) and the threat of the Greens continues to rise in once ultra-safe blue-ribbon territory (such as Higgins).

Back at Spring Street, there's a prevailing view that Abbott is on borrowed time, and that Guy's best chances of gaining ground against Andrews are to convince Victorians that his centre-right, socially progressive brand of Liberalism is at stark odds with his federal counterpart. It's no coincidence that a few months ago, the Victorian Liberal leader came out publicly in support of marriage equality and gay adoption. Nor is it insignificant that on Monday, he told his MPs at the Inverloch retreat that it's better for Liberals to stand for something positive – to be a "champion" for the people – rather than be defined by the things you are against. And by Wednesday, no one was under any illusion where he stood on the right to a free vote. It wasn't the first time Guy has sought to distance himself from Abbott; nor should it be the last.