One thing that's a constant in the NFL: Week 1 will surprise you and cause you to rethink your perceptions. That happened right away with the first game of the season when the Dallas Cowboys knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. No one saw that coming. A few more surprises in week 1: the New York Jets putting up 48 points against the Buffalo Bills; RGIII leading the Redskins to victory over the Saints and how about the Eagles' struggles against the Browns?

The various surprises and upsets are reflected in this week's NFL Power Rankings. To better illustrate those changes, I've made some updates to the tables. Now instead of containing both the Average and Standard Deviation for each group, I only show the Average Ranking column or the Standard Deviation column in the tables for which I'm discussing. In their place, I've added a "Change since Last Week" column that illustrates which way teams are moving from week to week. I think this will end up making things clearer and more fun to follow.

Notable Quotes

Fox

Philip Rivers was solid in his 2012 debut, throwing for 231 yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, he didn’t have any turnovers. If he can protect the ball, this team can once again compete for the division title. Getting RB Ryan Mathews back will help.

CBS

They didn't do a lot on offense, but they have to be excited about their defensive front. There are some talented young players there.

SBNation

San Diego has gone from 13 wins to nine wins to eight wins in the last three seasons. An ugly win on Monday night is a good start.

Reddit

The Chargers started the season by going 1-5 in the red zone. The Defense was better than it has been in years, and special teams pounced on a weakened long snapper situation. Great kicking won this game in both scoring points and limiting field position. Stepping up the run game and finishing in the red zone are glaring issues that need to be resolved.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking NFC East 10.8594 NFC North 13.6875 NFC South 15.6094 AFC North 15.9688 AFC East 17.6094 AFC West 18.0781 NFC West 18.8750 AFC South 21.3125

Stock Rising

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference WAS 23.357 15.846 7.511 DAL 14.571 9.077 5.494 TB 25.500 20.385 5.115 NYJ 20.571 15.846 4.725 ARI 25.643 22.000 3.643

Stock Falling

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference BUF 18.429 24.385 -5.956 NYG 2.857 8.462 -5.605 NO 7.571 12.846 -5.275 GB 1.500 5.462 -3.962 SEA 19.429 23.385 -3.956

Hit the jump to see all the rankings and the changes I've made to the tables. Sound off in the comments if you like or dislike the changes, or know of ways we can improve the rankings!

Subjective Average

Subjective Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 1.385 1.186 49ers 2 2 4 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 2.000 3.500 Ravens 3 3 5 3 3 3 4 2 5 3 1 3 3 3.154 2.846 Texans 4 4 2 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 3.846 1.368 Packers 5 7 7 4 5 5 8 7 4 4 5 5 5 5.462 -3.962 Falcons 6 5 3 7 6 11 6 6 6 7 10 6 7 6.615 3.099 Broncos 9 11 9 13 8 6 5 5 9 13 7 8 6 8.385 3.615 Giants 7 9 13 6 9 7 10 8 8 6 6 11 10 8.462 -5.605 Bears 8 8 10 9 13 14 7 9 7 9 9 7 8 9.077 2.137 Cowboys 10 6 6 10 7 10 9 10 10 10 12 9 9 9.077 5.494 Eagles 12 12 8 8 14 8 11 12 12 8 13 17 12 11.308 -3.308 Steelers 11 13 11 14 10 9 12 11 11 14 8 12 11 11.308 -2.808 Saints 16 10 12 11 12 15 14 14 13 11 11 14 14 12.846 -5.275 Lions 13 15 15 12 16 12 13 13 14 12 14 10 13 13.231 -1.017 Redskins 15 18 19 17 11 13 15 17 16 17 16 16 16 15.846 7.511 Jets 17 17 17 16 15 16 16 18 15 16 15 13 15 15.846 4.725 Chargers 14 20 16 15 17 18 17 16 17 15 17 15 17 16.462 1.109 Bengals 18 14 14 19 19 24 19 15 18 19 18 19 18 18.000 -3.500 Buccaneers 21 19 20 24 20 23 18 19 21 24 19 18 19 20.385 5.115 Chiefs 19 16 24 21 22 17 20 25 19 21 25 22 21 20.923 -3.066 Panthers 23 21 26 18 21 19 24 20 22 18 23 21 22 21.385 -3.242 Cardinals 20 27 18 23 26 20 21 21 20 23 27 20 20 22.000 3.643 Seahawks 26 28 22 20 18 26 23 23 24 20 26 24 24 23.385 -3.956 Titans 22 22 25 22 27 22 25 22 25 22 22 27 23 23.539 -2.825 Bills 24 23 21 25 25 27 27 24 23 25 20 26 27 24.385 -5.956 Vikings 28 25 27 27 24 25 26 26 27 27 24 25 26 25.923 2.720 Raiders 25 29 23 28 30 21 22 32 26 28 28 23 25 26.154 -1.011 Rams 27 26 29 26 23 30 29 28 30 26 29 28 28 27.615 1.242 Jaguars 29 30 28 30 28 29 28 27 28 30 30 30 29 28.923 -0.423 Colts 32 24 30 32 29 28 30 29 32 32 21 29 31 29.154 -1.654 Dolphins 30 31 31 29 32 31 32 30 31 29 32 32 32 30.923 -1.923 Browns 31 32 32 31 31 32 31 31 29 31 31 31 30 31.000 0.214

Observations:

See the pretty little arrows now? Neat, right?

The Chargers beat the Raiders. People like to say it was expected; Vegas disagrees as the Oakland was the favorite in the game. So technically the Chargers pulled off the upset. Perfect reasoning for Brian Billick to drop the Chargers 3 spots this week.

Nevertheless, the Chargers still managed to gain about a full spot in the rankings this week (on average).

The Jets and Redskins have leapfrogged the Chargers in positioning. I can't say I can argue that yet.

The Patriots have supplanted the Packers as the subjective top team this week.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 0.625 0.279 Texans 4 4 2 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 0.769 0.437 Browns 31 32 32 31 31 32 31 31 29 31 31 31 30 0.785 0.735 49ers 2 2 4 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 0.785 1.568 Jaguars 29 30 28 30 28 29 28 27 28 30 30 30 29 0.997 1.474 Ravens 3 3 5 3 3 3 4 2 5 3 1 3 3 1.026 1.044 Dolphins 30 31 31 29 32 31 32 30 31 29 32 32 32 1.071 1.100 Vikings 28 25 27 27 24 25 26 26 27 27 24 25 26 1.207 -0.164 Jets 17 17 17 16 15 16 16 18 15 16 15 13 15 1.231 0.759 Packers 5 7 7 4 5 5 8 7 4 4 5 5 5 1.278 -0.296 Chargers 14 20 16 15 17 18 17 16 17 15 17 15 17 1.500 0.595 Lions 13 15 15 12 16 12 13 13 14 12 14 10 13 1.527 0.617 Steelers 11 13 11 14 10 9 12 11 11 14 8 12 11 1.682 0.546 Cowboys 10 6 6 10 7 10 9 10 10 10 12 9 9 1.685 -0.007 Saints 16 10 12 11 12 15 14 14 13 11 11 14 14 1.747 0.313 Rams 27 26 29 26 23 30 29 28 30 26 29 28 28 1.903 -0.496 Titans 22 22 25 22 27 22 25 22 25 22 22 27 23 1.906 -0.573 Falcons 6 5 3 7 6 11 6 6 6 7 10 6 7 1.943 -0.075 Redskins 15 18 19 17 11 13 15 17 16 17 16 16 16 1.994 -0.364 Buccaneers 21 19 20 24 20 23 18 19 21 24 19 18 19 2.021 0.450 Giants 7 9 13 6 9 7 10 8 8 6 6 11 10 2.061 -0.420 Bears 8 8 10 9 13 14 7 9 7 9 9 7 8 2.093 -0.196 Bills 24 23 21 25 25 27 27 24 23 25 20 26 27 2.132 0.063 Panthers 23 21 26 18 21 19 24 20 22 18 23 21 22 2.237 0.432 Bengals 18 14 14 19 19 24 19 15 18 19 18 19 18 2.512 0.207 Broncos 9 11 9 13 8 6 5 5 9 13 7 8 6 2.588 -0.588 Eagles 12 12 8 8 14 8 11 12 12 8 13 17 12 2.613 0.266 Chiefs 19 16 24 21 22 17 20 25 19 21 25 22 21 2.674 0.508 Seahawks 26 28 22 20 18 26 23 23 24 20 26 24 24 2.733 0.260 Cardinals 20 27 18 23 26 20 21 21 20 23 27 20 20 2.856 0.182 Colts 32 24 30 32 29 28 30 29 32 32 21 29 31 3.183 -0.004 Raiders 25 29 23 28 30 21 22 32 26 28 28 23 25 3.207 -0.592

Observations:

With the new column, it's easier to see which teams are starting to shake things up and which teams are settling into their respective positions.

It seems the pundits feel they know where Vikings should be as they've moved up 2 spots in the rankings, but their ranking consistency improved .

. The Chargers are one of the more consistently-ranked teams, but their Standard Deviation went up this week, which indicates they're on the move (upwards I hope)

Amusingly, the Raiders are the least consistently-ranked team, but they actually became more consistently-ranked than they were last week

The Chiefs are on the move! Unfortunately for their fanbase, it's downwards

Objective Average

Objective Patriots 1 2 1 1.333 -0.333 Ravens 5 5 2 4.000 2.500 Cowboys 12 1 5 6.000 6.500 Eagles 11 6 6 7.667 0.333 49ers 18 3 3 8.000 7.500 Packers 3 15 7 8.333 -6.333 Texans 10 12 4 8.667 2.333 Falcons 2 9 16 9.000 0.500 Jets 6 11 12 9.667 0.833 Bears 4 18 9 10.333 -0.333 Giants 14 4 14 10.667 -2.667 Broncos 7 13 13 11.000 5.000 Chargers 19 10 8 12.333 2.167 Steelers 9 19 10 12.667 -9.167 Saints 8 16 15 13.000 -8.000 Redskins 22 8 11 13.667 6.333 Lions 16 17 23 18.667 1.333 Cardinals 30 7 20 19.000 9.000 Seahawks 26 14 18 19.333 2.167 Titans 21 23 17 20.333 -5.833 Buccaneers 15 24 26 21.667 4.333 Vikings 25 22 19 22.000 1.500 Bengals 24 21 24 23.000 -3.000 Panthers 13 29 30 24.000 -5.500 Chiefs 17 25 31 24.333 -1.333 Dolphins 28 20 27 25.000 -1.000 Bills 20 28 28 25.333 -4.833 Browns 31 26 21 26.000 1.500 Raiders 23 27 29 26.333 -0.333 Jaguars 27 31 25 27.667 -0.167 Colts 29 32 22 27.667 -5.667 Rams 32 30 32 31.333 0.667

Observations:

With so few datapoints, it's kind of hard to draw any concrete observations using objective rankings. We'll try anyway ...

The Patriots are doing everything right so far, 1/16th of the way through the season.

As are the Ravens and Cowboys

Interestingly, the Eagles moved slightly up in the objective rankings even though Vick had a bad day

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Patriots 1 2 1 0.471 -0.471 Rams 32 30 32 0.943 -0.943 Ravens 5 5 2 1.414 -0.914 Bengals 24 21 24 1.414 0.586 Eagles 11 6 6 2.357 1.643 Vikings 25 22 19 2.450 3.050 Titans 21 23 17 2.494 0.006 Jaguars 27 31 25 2.494 -0.994 Raiders 23 27 29 2.494 -0.494 Jets 6 11 12 2.625 -0.125 Broncos 7 13 13 2.828 2.172 Lions 16 17 23 3.091 -2.091 Texans 10 12 4 3.399 -1.399 Saints 8 16 15 3.559 -3.559 Dolphins 28 20 27 3.559 -2.559 Bills 20 28 28 3.771 0.729 Browns 31 26 21 4.083 -0.583 Colts 29 32 22 4.190 0.810 Steelers 9 19 10 4.497 -3.997 Cowboys 12 1 5 4.546 -3.046 Giants 14 4 14 4.714 -3.714 Chargers 19 10 8 4.784 -0.284 Buccaneers 15 24 26 4.784 -0.784 Seahawks 26 14 18 4.989 1.511 Packers 3 15 7 4.989 -4.989 Falcons 2 9 16 5.716 0.784 Chiefs 17 25 31 5.735 2.265 Bears 4 18 9 5.793 -1.793 Redskins 22 8 11 6.019 -6.019 49ers 18 3 3 7.071 0.429 Panthers 13 29 30 7.789 0.711 Cardinals 30 7 20 9.416 -7.416

Observations:

Again, with so few data points, Standard Deviation is expected to be all over the place. And it is. Ranging from 0.471 to 9.416 (!!)

Here's what's crazy: the Arizona Cardinals have the highest swing in rankings, yet it's improved from last week.

Chargers are slightly more consistently-ranked this week, though it's still a bit inconsistent.

A bit of this inconsistency can probably be blamed on Football Outsiders. Right now their DAVE rankings use 90% pre-season projections and 10% VOA; and their VOA isn't defensively-adjusted. So really their rankings might be a little off until week 4ish.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Patriots 1.385 1.333 1.359 0.427 Ravens 3.154 4.000 3.577 2.673 49ers 2.000 8.000 5.000 5.500 Texans 3.846 8.667 6.256 1.851 Packers 5.462 8.333 6.897 -5.147 Cowboys 9.077 6.000 7.538 5.998 Falcons 6.615 9.000 7.808 1.799 Eagles 11.308 7.667 9.487 -1.487 Giants 8.462 10.667 9.564 -4.135 Broncos 8.385 11.000 9.692 4.308 Bears 9.077 10.333 9.705 0.902 Steelers 11.308 12.667 11.987 -5.987 Jets 15.846 9.667 12.756 2.780 Saints 12.846 13.000 12.923 -6.637 Chargers 16.462 12.333 14.397 1.639 Redskins 15.846 13.667 14.756 6.923 Lions 13.231 18.667 15.949 0.158 Bengals 18.000 23.000 20.500 -3.250 Cardinals 22.000 19.000 20.500 6.321 Buccaneers 20.385 21.667 21.026 4.724 Seahawks 23.385 19.333 21.359 -0.895 Titans 23.539 20.333 21.936 -4.329 Chiefs 20.923 24.333 22.628 -2.199 Panthers 21.385 24.000 22.692 -4.371 Vikings 25.923 22.000 23.962 2.109 Bills 24.385 25.333 24.859 -5.395 Raiders 26.154 26.333 26.244 -0.673 Dolphins 30.923 25.000 27.962 -1.462 Jaguars 28.923 27.667 28.295 -0.295 Colts 29.154 27.667 28.410 -3.660 Browns 31.000 26.000 28.500 0.857 Rams 27.615 31.333 29.474 0.955

Observations:

Poor Packers, dropping over 5 spots overall.

Chargers at least now are in the top-50% of the league instead of the bottom 50%.

I know the Titans were blown out by the Patriots, but the Patriots are really good this year, but I guess they played rather poorly anyway.

this year, but I guess they played rather poorly anyway. Guess the optimism in Indianapolis has faded away already

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Patriots 1.385 1.333 0.600 0.392 Ravens 3.154 4.000 1.158 0.794 Jaguars 28.923 27.667 1.488 0.907 Vikings 25.923 22.000 2.157 0.604 Saints 12.846 13.000 2.204 -0.097 Rams 27.615 31.333 2.284 -0.607 Titans 23.539 20.333 2.384 0.177 Texans 3.846 8.667 2.488 -0.157 Steelers 11.308 12.667 2.524 0.142 Bills 24.385 25.333 2.549 0.137 Packers 5.462 8.333 2.693 -1.760 Browns 31.000 26.000 2.727 -0.477 Cowboys 9.077 6.000 2.761 -0.968 Buccaneers 20.385 21.667 2.804 -0.089 Broncos 8.385 11.000 2.826 0.068 Lions 13.231 18.667 2.861 0.422 Jets 15.846 9.667 2.888 1.029 Giants 8.462 10.667 2.891 -0.573 Eagles 11.308 7.667 2.934 0.107 Dolphins 30.923 25.000 2.942 -0.299 Chargers 16.462 12.333 2.952 -0.231 Bengals 18.000 23.000 3.051 0.155 Raiders 26.154 26.333 3.087 -0.525 Falcons 6.615 9.000 3.172 -0.284 Bears 9.077 10.333 3.177 -0.873 Redskins 15.846 13.667 3.278 -1.392 Colts 29.154 27.667 3.444 0.465 Seahawks 23.385 19.333 3.638 0.048 Chiefs 20.923 24.333 3.708 0.736 49ers 2.000 8.000 3.919 0.857 Panthers 21.385 24.000 4.060 -0.151 Cardinals 22.000 19.000 4.962 -1.932

Observations:

Again, Cardinals are the least consistently-ranked team; though their Standard Deviation dropped here too.

The Chargers ranking consistency is bottom-third, so there isn't much of a consensus yet, but the consensus is improving



Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj 49ers 2.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 Lions 13.231 18.667 5.436 2.350 Bengals 18.000 23.000 5.000 0.500 Texans 3.846 8.667 4.821 0.965 Rams 27.615 31.333 3.718 -0.575 Chiefs 20.923 24.333 3.410 1.733 Packers 5.462 8.333 2.872 -2.372 Broncos 8.385 11.000 2.615 1.385 Panthers 21.385 24.000 2.615 -2.258 Falcons 6.615 9.000 2.385 -2.599 Giants 8.462 10.667 2.205 2.938 Steelers 11.308 12.667 1.359 -6.359 Buccaneers 20.385 21.667 1.282 -0.782 Bears 9.077 10.333 1.256 -2.470 Bills 24.385 25.333 0.949 1.122 Ravens 3.154 4.000 0.846 -0.346 Raiders 26.154 26.333 0.180 0.677 Saints 12.846 13.000 0.154 -2.725 Patriots 1.385 1.333 -0.051 -1.520 Jaguars 28.923 27.667 -1.256 0.256 Colts 29.154 27.667 -1.487 -4.013 Redskins 15.846 13.667 -2.180 -1.177 Cardinals 22.000 19.000 -3.000 5.357 Cowboys 9.077 6.000 -3.077 1.006 Titans 23.539 20.333 -3.205 -3.009 Eagles 11.308 7.667 -3.641 3.641 Vikings 25.923 22.000 -3.923 -1.220 Seahawks 23.385 19.333 -4.051 6.122 Chargers 16.462 12.333 -4.128 1.057 Browns 31.000 26.000 -5.000 1.286 Dolphins 30.923 25.000 -5.923 0.923 Jets 15.846 9.667 -6.180 -3.891

Observations:

This one is always fun to look at. Typically, the objective rankings react slower to a team's performance than the subjective averages. On the flipside, sometimes the subjective averages can be a bit knee-jerk since it's, well, subjective. But overall, this can be a good barometer of where a team is headed.

Are the 49ers really better than the stats tell us? Or are appearances deceiving? Same question for the Lions, Bengals and Texans, all of whom are subjectively ranked higher than their objective rankings indicate. Also, the disparity between the rankings grew for those teams.

Based on these differences, no one should have been that surprised by the Jets' performance this past weekend. Also, everyone seems to be quick to jump all over the Dolphins, Browns and Chargers; but stats indicate they may be better than people perceive.

Wow, the Saints' rankings corrected themselves quite well after just one game.

Sources