More expected to flee New Jersey as baby boomers age

For Raymond Francisco, landing a job at the General Motors auto plant in Linden at 25 years old was like winning the lottery.

The New Brunswick native was a welder by trade, and enjoyed working hard for the good money he made at the plant. But when GM announced in 2002 it would close the factory — about six years after he started — Francisco decided he had to go where the jobs were.

That meant packing up his wife, two small children and moving to Lordstown, Ohio, where GM offered him another job at an assembly plant.

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People are leaving New Jersey at a higher rate than 47 other states, just behind New York, which is No. 1, and Illinois, according to James Hughes, a demographer and dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, New Brunswick.

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A United Van Lines study based on household moves handle by the company in 2014 found that about 65 percent of the state's moves are outbound, which is a higher percentage than any other state in the country. New York was close behind with 64 percent, and Illinois was 63 percent.

Although data show the number of people leaving New Jersey has only slightly increased during the past 15 years, demographers predict that the state will see a more significant loss of residents — especially millennials and baby boomers — over the next several years.

The population of New Jersey isn't decreasing, but the components are changing, according to data from the U.S. Census.

From 2010 to 2014, about 204,000 people living in New Jersey left. There were about 50,000 more people per year moving out of New Jersey than moving in from other U.S. states.

But that 204,000 was replaced by about 211,000 people moving to New Jersey from Puerto Rico and other countries. Those figures include foreign-born and U.S.-born individuals, as well as the movement of U.S. Armed Forces from overseas.

During a five-year stretch, from 2006 to 2011, the state lost more than 90,000 taxpayers — and $8 billion in income — to other states and countries that was not made up from new workers within the state, according to an analysis of IRS tax and migration records

From 2000 to about 2010, that net domestic loss was steady at about 45,000 people per year, Hughes said.

Like so many others who are leaving New Jersey in droves, Francisco realized his dollars go a lot further in other states.

"It was the scariest thing I ever did in my life — moving out of New Jersey," he said. "My daughter was just born, my son was five. But looking back, it worked out for the best."

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Hughes said for many retirees, moving out of New Jersey — away from a high cost of living in general — is an economic no-brainer. High property taxes, transportation tolls and death taxes are all financial disincentives for aging New Jerseyans.

By the end of 2015, baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964 will be between 51 and 69 years old.

"They're all prime candidates for retirements and are perhaps looking for affordability," Hughes said. "We could see a huge increase (of migration out of New Jersey) going forward."

But the rate at which people are leaving isn't unique to New Jersey. People are leaving the Northeast in general.

The United Van Lines study found that four of the top 10 states people are fleeing from are Northeastern states, which include Connecticut and Pennsylvania in addition to New Jersey and New York. And that trend has been the same for about three years now, with more than one in four United Van Line survey respondents saying they're leaving for retirement.

"Job growth has been much, much faster in North Carolina, Georgia and the likes," Hughes said. "If there's a lack of employment opportunities here, those are attractive options. Charlotte, North Carolina, has become a huge financial center in the country."

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Francisco said although he misses New Jersey and comes back to visit family and friends about twice a year since he left, he couldn't afford to live in the Garden State again.

In 2000, Francisco bought his 2,000-square-foot, three-bedroom house in Old Bridge for about $220,000 — the most he could afford. He paid about $6,000 per year in taxes.

When he sold it in 2005, he was able to buy a brand new, 4,500-square-foot house in Ohio for $280,000. He pays about half the amount of taxes for more than twice the space, and his children go to school in an excellent district.

"Taxes in New Jersey are just killing people," he said. "I look back — pop my head in the paper or look online — to see how much people are paying to live, and I don't know how people are surviving anymore."

Hughes said it's common for families, especially retirees who rode the inflation cycle for years, to cash out on their expensive houses and get something comparable in a Southern state or Midwestern state for half the price.

Brick natives Brittany and Michael Molawka left New Jersey in 2011 for Utah. Michael, who had been on active duty in the New Jersey Army National Guard, couldn't find a job in his field after he came back from his deployment in Iraq and finished school.

The couple moved to Utah so Michael could work for a military contractor. But in 2013, health problems brought them back to New Jersey so they could be closer to family. Fortunately, he was able to find work in New Jersey, Brittany said.

"My husband makes the same amount of money here as we did in Utah," Brittany said. "But we're not able to have the same things we were able to have there. We took weekend trips and vacations. Money goes a lot further there."

The 29-year-old mother of two said they had a $1,200 per month mortgage payment on a 3,200-square-foot house. Now, they're paying more than $1,500 per month to rent a 900-square-foot apartment in Toms River.

"You have to go where your job is," she said. "My husband hates it because we're paying so much more for rent. We had a nicer house and nicer things in Utah."

Even though Southern states are supposedly going to lure retirees to warmer weather and lower property taxes over the next 18 or so years, Hughes said, the top states people move to from New Jersey are still New York and Pennsylvania, according to U.S. Census data.

Patrick Guaschino, who from 2011 to 2013 commuted to his entry level job at a publishing company in Manhattan from his parents' house in Toms River, couldn't afford to commute and pay high New Jersey rents.

In the course of a month, Guaschino would spent $495 dollars and 80 hours a month on his bus commute.

"For certain fields, you work in Manhattan or you don't work," he said. "At the time, I lived with my parents and the circumstances were okay because transportation was my only major expense."

In 2013, he moved to Brooklyn, which cut his transit costs by more than 80 percent and eliminated his need for a car.

"Living in New York was what made economic sense," said Guaschino, who is now 29. "It's such a shame because I feel like New Jersey has classically been a great place to live and commute to New York. That's so much of what built the state – access to the city and great opportunities for jobs."

But he said the high cost of living and high transit costs is making is difficult for young people to afford New Jersey.

Hughes said millennials are among those expected to leave New Jersey, but for different reasons. People in their 20s and 30s are suffering from suburban fatigue – they want to be in live-work-play environments all the time.

"Brooklyn is draining the young demographic vitality of central New Jersey," Hughes said. "Baby boomers couldn't wait to get out of Brooklyn. Their children can't wait to get back in."

There are a lot of young people who want to live in places like Jersey City, Morristown and Hoboken, Hughes said, but there are only a few places like that in New Jersey. Cost is less of a factor, and lifestyle – including living in edgy environments in close proximity to restaurants, museums and public transit – is more important to millennials, he said.

"New Jersey doesn't have the best image in the world," he said. "Young people want to be in fashionable places."

Kala Kachmar: 732-643-4061; kkachmar@app.com.

Top destinations of those leaving New Jersey

1. New York

2. Pennsylvania

3. California

4. Florida

5. North Carolina

Source: IRS State Outflow data 2010-11

New Jersey migration 2010-2014

Domestic: -204,197

International: 211,165

Total: 6,968

Source: U.S. Census Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions and Puerto Rico

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