Ivan Golunov, the 36-year old investigative journalist charged on bogus drug-dealing offences, should, by normal reasoning, be in prison now.

When the teeth of Russian justice snapped into motion following his arrest on 6 June, all odds were stacked against him. In Russia, more than 99 per cent of cases to reach court end in convictions. For Mr Golunov, a guilty verdict meant up to 20 years in a correctional camp.

But when the journalist was brought to court two days later – tired and exhausted after being deprived of food and sleep – a most extraordinary thing happened. The presiding judge rejected the prosecution’s request to extend custody. Instead, Mr Golunov was released on house arrest, with charges later dropped completely.

Mr Golunov cried that day in court. Not, he tells The Independent, because he thought a lot about what 20 years in prison could mean; that he would be released at 56 years of age, an old man. That frightening realisation came later.

No, the tears flowed from the cheers that he could hear from the supporters on the streets outside. “I didn’t expect the scale of the support,” he says.

20 years of Putin Show all 21 1 /21 20 years of Putin 20 years of Putin 1999 Russian President Boris Yeltsin (R) poses with the Patriarch of Moscow and all Russia, Alexei II (L) and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (C) at the Kremlin in Moscow 31 December 1999. Yeltsin announced 31 December 1999 that he was resigning immediately and that Putin, according to the Russian constitution, would run the country as acting president until presidential elections in March 2000. AFP/Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2000 Russian President Vladimir Putin poses with his wife Lyudmila in front of the Taj Mahal 04 October 2000. Putin is on a three-day visit to India. AFP/Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2001 Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and US President George W. Bush (R) smile following press conference at Crawford High School in Crawford, Texas 15 November 2001. Presidents Putin and Bush spoke about their meeting at the Bush ranch at a press conference at Crawford High School. AFP/Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2002 British Prime Minister Tony Blair (R) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) discuss as they walk in the residence of Zavidovo , in the Tver region, some 120 km north-west of Moscow, as Cherie Blair (C) and Lyudmila Putina (not pictured) follow them 11 October 2002. Tony Blair arrived in Russia for two days of face-to-face talks with President Vladimir Putin on fresh UN action to force Iraq to give up weapons of mass destruction. AFP/Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2003 Russian President Vladimir Putin is accompanied by Her Majesty The Queen during a procession at The Mallat during the start iof his state visit on June 24, 2003 in London, England. Putin is on a 4 days visit in Great Britain and will attend a number of functions during his time in the country. The visit is the first by a Russian President since 1843. Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2004 President Vladimir Putin pets his dog Conny before one of his meetings with officials in his office in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, 03 March 2004. Putin met Wednesday with his nominee for prime minister, Mikhail Fradkov, and expressed hope that the government and parliament would work closely in the future. At left is a bodyguard. AFP/Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2005 Russian President Vladimir Putin seen during the recording of his annual televised New Year's message at the Kremlin, with the Spassky Tower in the background, in Moscow, recorded early, 29 December 2005. AFP/Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2006 Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a pistol during his visit to a newly-built headquarters of the Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Department (GRU) in Moscow, 08 November 2006. ?Some countries are seeking to untie their hands in order to take weapons to outer space, including nuclear weapons,? Putin said at the Chief Military Intelligence Department on Wednesday. AFP/Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2007 Russian President Vladimir Putin fishing on the Khemchik River near the foothills of the Western Sayan Mountains in the Republic of Tuva. Time magazine named President Vladimir Putin its "person of the year" 19 December 2007 in recognition of the Russian leader's role in making Moscow "a critical linchpin of the 21st century. The award, which is not considered an honor so much as a recognition of the most powerful forces shaping the world, was awarded for Putin's role in reshaping a country that Time's Managing Editor Richard Stengel said had "fallen off our mental map." AFP/Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2008 Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) stands next to Libyan leader Muammar Qadaffi during the signing of agreements between the two countries April 17, 2008 in Tripoli, Libya. Putin is in Libya for a two-day official visit to rebuild Russian-Libyan relations. 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AFP/Getty Images 20 years of Putin 2018 Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks on the phone in his office in Saint Petersburg on December 15, 2018 with Artyom Palyanov -- a boy with brittle bone disease who wished to see a bird's eye view of the city. - Earlier the President promised to make his dream come true by sending him on a helicopter tour of the city. AFP/Getty 20 years of Putin Britain's Prime Minister, Theresa May, meets Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, during a bilateral meeting on the first day of the G20 summit on June 28, 2019 in Osaka, Japan. U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Osaka on Thursday for the annual Group of 20 gathering together with other world leaders who will use the two-day summit to discuss pressing economic, climate change, as well as geopolitical issues. 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That pressure from the street was one element of a perfect confluence of factors that culminated in his release. High-level representations were another. But arguably the crucial moment was when bosses in the Kremlin realised they were being lied to about the evidence.

In late June, President Putin was uncharacteristically straight in condemning Mr Golunov’s ordeal. At his annual “direct line” phone-in, he described the journalist’s arrest as “unjust” and he called for an investigation. “It is simply an abuse of power,” the president said.

And yet, five months on, no arrests or charges have been brought.

On Monday, a Kremlin spokesperson said the investigation needed more time. The Independent understands that, on the contrary, state investigators have already determined the exact chain of command, the personalities involved, and the cause – Mr Golunov’s reporting about Moscow’s corrupt funeral business. That connected top secret-service officers to mafia groups controlling the sector.

Instead, the investigation has apparently been placed on hold for nearly two months, pending a decision from above about how to proceed.

Mr Golunov, who is under police protection 24/7, and wears a bulletproof vest when appearing in public, refuses to be drawn on the details of the investigation.

“I want to leave law enforcement to do their job,” he says. “I have no complaints about their work and I want them to be proud of their job.”

But the journalist says his case highlights a fundamental “conflict” within the Russian elite. A culture of corruption, lies and covering peoples’ backs rotted from the lowest levels of government, he says, to the extent that the system resembled a “house of cards”.

The police officers assigned to the operation did not realise who they were arresting, says Mr Golunov. But it was clearly not the first time they had planted drugs on someone: “Everything about the operation was automatic, routine. It was second nature to these guys.”

The day after his arrest, Moscow police made a series of remarkable claims about a “drugs laboratory” in Mr Golunov’s flat. They produced staged photographs, which were apparently passed up the chain without much thought. They also told chiefs in the Kremlin that there was video evidence when it didn’t actually exist.

In the event, incompetence proved to be the crooked officers’ undoing. Had they conducted a basic search about who Mr Golunov was, they might have thought twice before going down the road they did. It certainly did not take long for the journalist’s friends – some of Russia’s brightest investigators – to prove the photographs were faked.

By the same token, had senior police managers bothered to check the evidence base, they would probably have been spared the Kremlin’s red anger. And Mr Golunov would almost certainly be in jail.

“The problem is that system is built on money,” the journalist says. “People are judging their careers based on how much they can steal. A sense of corporate solidarity feeds the cycle of lies and disinformation. There is a total loss of control.”

Mr Golunov’s release represented an unprecedented victory of justice over such anarchy. It also turned him into a reluctant protest symbol. The journalist is recognised on the streets. In airports. Recently, he was chased down by a group of tourists in a Spanish forest.

The notoriously shy journalist says he is embarrassed by the fuss. He isn’t a “natural activist”, he says, and would much prefer to stay in the background.

But his own future now directly depends on the Russian system changing fast. In the first instance, by charging and convicting those who stood behind his arrest and multiple death threats.

“Putin sent a clear and I believe sincere signal that the corrupt officers should be brought to justice,” Mr Golunov says.