Twelve of 32 teams remain in the hunt for the golden invitation to Super Bowl LII, and though wild-card weekend has produced classic games in the past, it’s notable that each home team this weekend is a definitive favourite.

None of the host teams look out of place as hosts in this round, but three of the four home venues — New Orleans, Los Angeles and Jacksonville — are absolute surprises based on pre-season predictions.

Here’s a look at this weekend’s games, including why each team could win and final predictions.

TENNESSEE TITANS (9-7) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6)

Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET

Why the Titans will win

Despite a season of notable regression statistically — and some mid-season battles with injury — this is a great chance for Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota to silence his critics and cap his third season with a his first playoff victory. To do that, Mariota will have to scramble effectively, rely on the rushing attack (even if the Titans trail early) and avoid the big mistake, as Mariota is known for a bad pass now and then at the most-inopportune times. The Titans are 8-3 in the last 11 regular-season games in which Mariota has not thrown a pick, so he’s as likely to beat his own team sometimes as the opposition.

Tennessee will also need their defence to limit catch-and-run plays from Kareem Hunt out of the backfield and Tyreek Hill out wide. The Titans are fourth-best in the NFL with 3.6 yards per carry allowed, and though that isn’t sexy, it’s undeniably efficient.

If the Titans win Saturday’s game at Arrowhead, it won’t be because of the big plays they make, but because of limiting them for Kansas City.

Why the Chiefs will win

There’s a lot of guessing as to which Chiefs team we’ll see Saturday, and it’s fair to wonder. Not many squads had three distinct sections of season like K.C. did, starting 5-0, slumping to 1-6 mid-season, and then finishing 4-0.

The Chiefs hold the advantage at home, and look to be back to playing the explosive football that was seemingly abandoned during their skid. Kansas City boasts two of the league’s best playmakers in leading rusher Hunt and Hill, one of the toughest wideouts to cover one-on-one not named Antonio Brown or Julio Jones.

But the Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid shouldn’t believe their own hype. Reid has lost many home playoff games, including last year’s loss as a 12-4 No. 2 seed to Pittsburgh, and several games at home as Philadelphia Eagles head coach, including three NFC title games. For all of Arrowhead Stadium’s rep as a brutal place to play, Kansas City has lost five straight home playoff games, averaging 12.2 points per game, dating back to 1995.

The Verdict

Tennessee stumbled to the finish line a bit too much for my liking, but keeps this one close. And despite being fortunate to close out their season against Jay Cutler and Paxton Lynch, the Chiefs showed in their Week 15 shellacking of the then-surging Chargers that they could halt their 2017 slide.

Final Score

Chiefs 26, Titans 21

ATLANTA FALCONS (10-6) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (11-5)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Why the Falcons will win

There’s no other matchup this weekend in which a team can play the “experience” card like in this one, and though it’s not everything, being there before means something.

Matt Ryan will make his ninth career post-season start, and the Falcons somehow avoided being yet another Super Bowl-losing team to miss the playoffs the following season. Strangely, Atlanta is the defending NFC champion playing with house money and showed in on the field in the second half of the season, posting a 6-2 record with signature wins in Seattle and Tampa, and at home against New Orleans.

The Falcons are also relatively healthy, and it’s hard to bet against a team with weapons like Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones. Lost in last season’s Super Bowl collapse was how Atlanta shredded Seattle and Green Bay by a combined 80-41 score in their NFC wins to get to the big game. The Falcons’ offensive personnel are virtually the same as last year’s team, and they have a dark memory to erase.

Why the Rams will win

At some point this season, the Rams made believers out of us all.

But even if we already believed they’d go from 4-12 to a wild-card contender, none saw their 11-5 season coming. Sean McVay’s team answered every single test along the way, only losing by more than one score on once — a 24-7 hammering in Minnesota, the place where they could play next weekend. They’re coached incredibly well, Jared Goff has been a revelation as a sophomore, and Todd Gurley has had a remarkable renaissance (he’d get my MVP vote) in his third season.

The Rams are at home and get a chance to make a statement about who they are now and who they’ll be for years to come. Many young NFL teams stumble in their first playoff game, but the Los Angeles has proven that no moment is too big for them.

The Verdict

There’s so much for the Rams to accomplish, and they just may fly out faster and hungrier than Atlanta. There’s little the Falcons have done, especially in their red-zone play-calling, to make me think they’re coached as well as L.A. Goff is no fluke and he’s passed so many tests this year, and will have tons of time to pick out his targets.

Final Score

Rams 34, Falcons 17

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BUFFALO BILLS (9-7) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (11-5)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET

Why the Bills will win

The euphoria of watching the Ravens gag it up against the Bengals in Buffalo’s locker room in Miami has to be over, and over soon.

Buffalo, plain and simple, need to take the ball away against Bortles and the Jaguars attack. An opportunistic defence must force errors and gain advantageous field position for Tyrod Taylor and his offensive attack. The Bills have been front-runners much of the season: give them a double-digit lead and they almost always hold it, but when they trail by more than 10, it’s likely game over.

It goes without saying if LeSean McCoy can’t go or is extremely limited, the Bills’ hopes take a severe blow. “Shady” is vitally important to an offence that doesn’t make much magic happen without him.

Why the Jaguars will win

The debate among Jaguars fans all season long? What has been the most important part of their fantastic defence: the sack threat of duo of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, or the shutdown, ball-hawking secondary pairing of A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey. If all four players play well Sunday, they should limit a Buffalo offensive outlay that only scored more points in 2017 than nine other NFL teams.

Offensively, it’s obvious that Bortles has to play within himself and not make the big mistake, which he did well to start December (no INTs in three straight wins) before a wobbly pair of games to finish. Bortles has underrated speed, can get out of the pocket and if he can’t make positive gains, at least he can throw the ball away and not into the arms of the opposing secondary. Plenty of teams can survive slightly below NFL-average quarterbacking and win a playoff game, especially with a defence like Jacksonville’s, but Bortles can’t afford to be lousy.

The Verdict

Is Buffalo just “happy to be there”? Probably not. And unless they’re utterly blown out, no one will claim the Bills didn’t show up. But Jacksonville’s defence showed way too much all year long to think they’ll struggle with the Bills offence, and if I know the NFL, they’ll be pounding a banged-up LeSean McCoy every chance they get. Jacksonville gets this done and goes to Pittsburgh next weekend for a thriller.

Final Score

Jaguars 27, Bills 20

CAROLINA PANTHERS (11-5) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-5)

Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET

Why the Panthers will win

I really, really like this roster and how they’ve been coached this season.

The Panthers make life difficult, almost universally, for the opposing quarterbacks, and have 18 sacks in their past five games. The opporunity to chase a 38-year-old Drew Brees around could be fun for them. Carolina is one of the rare teams playing this weekend that has equal balance on both sides of the football, and that consistency can be massive in January games.

The Panthers were 12th in the NFL in points scored, and 11th in points against. Yes, Cam Newton has looked nothing like the runaway MVP he was two seasons ago, but if Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey can play “keep up” with the Saints’ dynamic Ingram-Kamara duo in terms of productivity, I think Carolina has good chance against the Saints.

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Why the Saints will win

What a moment for Drew Brees.

He may have truly believed he’d played his final NFL playoff game. Despite being another year older, Brees should be fresher this post-season as he threw 137 fewer passes than he did last season and led the league in completion percentage. Life’s good when you can hand off to either Alvin Kamara or Mark Ingram, knowing both have a great chance to move the chains in key moments.

It’s also fascinating to me that Newton has only played two playoff games away from Charlotte, one being the Super Bowl loss to Denver and the other a 31-17 defeat to Seattle when the Seahawks were defending Super Bowl champions. Newton threw three INTs, fumbled three times, and was sacked eight times in those two games. This is a shot at redemption, believe it or not, and he may feel that external pressure if the first few drives don’t go well.

The Verdict

I like the road team here. Newton doesn’t have to be a superstar, but needs a “clean” game and I think Carolina can step up and surprise in a hostile environment. They will be trouble for the Eagles next weekend, potentially.

Final Score

Panthers 34, Saints 31