Jay-Z’s Brooklyn Go Hard blared from the speakers Saturday afternoon as Vermont senator Bernie Sanders took the stage in his native borough to kick off a second run for the White House. He capped his campaign launch weekend with a Sunday night rally in Chicago, where he attended college at the height of the civil rights movement. After failing to secure the 2016 Democratic nomination, Sanders’ decision to begin his 2020 bid for the presidency by returning to these two cities of his youth was part of a deliberate strategy to integrate more of his personal story into his campaign. In this regard, he seemed more inspired by the opening line of a different Jay-Z song: “Allow me to reintroduce myself … ”

With his name recognition as high as it is, exactly who was the intended audience? There’s no question it was black voters. The focus of his speeches, the guests that accompanied him on stage, and his visit to Selma, Alabama to commemorate the 54th anniversary of Bloody Sunday made it clear that the Sanders’ campaign believes it must improve its black outreach.

But it was also clear to those who tuned in that his approach to winning over black voters in 2020 is going to look a lot like 2016. And that’s probably not going to be enough.

Sanders’ trouble with black voters is well-chronicled. Hillary Clinton bested Sanders by wide margins, getting more than 70% of the black vote in the 2016 Democratic primaries. With black voters comprising 27% of the primary electorate, candidates will need to perform well with them if they have any hopes of becoming the nominee. The Sanders’ team came to this stark realization following 2016’s crushing loss in South Carolina, writing in a campaign memo: “The margin by which we lost the African American vote has got to be – at the very least – cut in half or there simply is no path to victory.”

Part of the critique against Sanders is that his class-based economic policies crowd the distinct experiences of black Americans out of his agenda. The universal programs he supports – $15 minimum wage, Medicare for All, tuition-free college – don’t address head-on the stubborn racial disparities that persist even among similarly situated black and white Americans. Certainly, racial and economic inequalities are entangled, but race remains the primary determinant of one’s socioeconomic status.

In Chicago, Sanders acknowledged this inconvenient truth. “Our campaign is about fundamentally ending the disparity of wealth and power in this country,” he told the audience of more than 12,000. “But as we do that, we must speak out against the disparity within the disparity.” He then listed a number of troublesome racial disparities concerning the wealth gap, infant and maternal mortality rates, health outcomes and the criminal justice system.

And then he moved on.

There was no mention of targeted programs to reduce those disparities – only a return to his standard stump speech on the dangers of rampant economic inequality. Just before wrapping up, he vowed to “address the racial disparities of wealth and income” and “root out institutional racism”. But his preferred means to accomplishing these ends still appear to center on colorblind policies.

Sanders’ progressive agenda probably plays better with white liberals than with black Americans

These tips-of-the-hat to black Americans’ disparate experience are unlikely to move the electorate into his coalition in any significant way for a few reasons. First, history has fostered a political pragmatism within the black electorate that tends to prefer moderate Democratic candidates who have a track record of deep and persistent engagement. Because of the centrality of the civil rights question, black voters most often support presidential candidates they trust with protecting the gains made to date. This trust is earned over time or through a shared lived experience. This is why establishment candidates such as Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, and why black candidates like Barack Obama and Kamala Harris, have the inside track with this bloc. Sanders has yet to show he can break through.

Second, partly because of Sanders’ undeniable success in reframing the terms of Democratic policy debates, the party has moved left since the last presidential election. Black voters’ ideology, however, has not. While the number of Democratic white voters who describe their views as liberal has nearly doubled from 28% in 2000 to 55% in 2016, the number of black voters has remained basically the same – 25-28% – in that same time frame. So, Sanders’ progressive agenda probably plays better with white liberals than with black Americans.

And to the extent that specific progressive policies are appealing to black voters, such as raising the minimum wage or universal healthcare, that is now a crowded space where Sanders doesn’t necessarily hold a discernible advantage. Fellow Senators Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and Kirstin Gillibrand also support those policies. And further, several Democratic nominees have voiced generic support for reparations whereas Sanders remains noncommittal and, instead, prefers to discuss an anti-poverty program championed by Representative Jim Clyburn.

And third, pointing to his actions in the civil rights movement or seeking endorsement by black political elites are unlikely to sway black voters. Research shows that black public opinion is developed at the grassroots level and not acquired from political elites, especially as it pertains to insurgent movements that challenge the establishment and status quo. Sanders will likely not be able to manufacture a bump in support among black voters through top-down appeals. Sustained and funded engagement at the local level is his best shot at improving his standing.

This is not to say, of course, that Sanders’ policy prescriptions do not address racial disparities at all. Universal programs can raise the floor and improve the quality of life of those at or near the bottom, bringing them closer to the median. And Sanders’ apparent willingness to speak more directly to material racial inequalities is a welcome development. But if the goal of his campaign launch weekend was to woo black voters with his reliable message on economic inequality interspersed with personal narrative, it fell short.

The first primary votes won’t be cast for another 10 months; the election season is long. If Sanders is serious about winning over black voters, it will be evident in every speech, visit and interview from this point forward. But if his 2020 reintroduction is a 2016 redux, his showing among black voters is likely to remain the same.