When Maria Olaifa was accepted into Fanshawe College’s marketing management program for May she was thrilled, eager to pack her belongings and leave her native Philippines.

But her plans to study at the London, Ont., college were abruptly halted due to travel restrictions imposed in the wake of the global COVID-19 health crisis.

“My country has closed its borders and flights are not available,” said Olaifa, 32, of Cebu City. Even if she could come, she’s not sure she would.

“I am afraid to be in a country where I do not know anyone and have nowhere to go during this pandemic,” she told the Star. “I don’t think it would be mentally healthy for me to go to a place for the first time, alone with all these problems.”

Olaifa is among a growing number of international students who intended to come to Canada in the next few months, but are now deferring study plans.

Border closures, flight cancellations, shuttered language testing sites and closed visa offices are posing major challenges. It’s too early to say how many students have deferred or outright cancelled study plans — even those with valid study permits. But a significant decrease in the number of international students at Canadian colleges and universities — a segment that’s been booming in recent years — would deliver a financial blow to schools that rely on their hefty tuition fees as a revenue source.

International students contribute $6 billion a year just in tuition at Canadian universities, but their economic impact extends beyond the campus. Government figures show that in 2018 they pumped $21.6 billion into schools, communities and the broader Canadian economy. As of Dec. 31, 2019, there were 498,735 post-secondary international students in Canada, a 14.5 per cent increase from 2018.

As the health crisis drags on, colleges and universities are asking the federal government to allow international students to do online courses while in their own country.

The federal policy typically stipulates that international students must attend most classes in-person to receive a Post-Graduation Work Permit — but there have been recent updates. Those currently in Canada can now do e-learning and have it count towards their work permit, since in-person classes are temporarily cancelled. And on Tuesday the federal government said international students with a study permit for a program starting in May or June, but who can’t get here because of travel restrictions, can complete up to 50 per cent of it online without it impacting eligibility for a work permit.

Kevin Lemkay, press secretary for Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino, told the Star officials will continue assessing the impact of the current situation and make further adjustments as needed.

President and CEO Denise Amyot of Colleges and Institutes Canada, which represents publicly funded colleges, institutes, CEGEPs and polytechnics, said “important decisions” can now be made about the spring/summer intake. But the fact students can only complete up to 50 per cent of their program outside Canada is too limiting, she said. That means a student in an eight-month postgraduate program would need to be in Canada by the fall.

“We are all faced with a high degree of uncertainty as to how long the pandemic will last and when borders will open, and so we are asking students to make important decisions with incomplete information,” she said, adding they shouldn’t be penalized if unable to travel to Canada.

Amyot’s focus is on supporting international students here or on their way over — those approved for a study permit by March 18 when travel restrictions took effect can still enter Canada if they can get here. But she’s also keeping a close watch abroad, where some language testing and visa offices are closed and has asked the government to loosen testing rules and relax biometric requirements at visa application centres.

“The evolving nature of the situation requires that we engage in constructive dialogue and quickly find solutions to emerging issues, including those related to the ongoing processing of study permits given continued service disruptions.”

For those hoping to start college in September, wondering if they too can do e-learning, Amyot will continue asking the government “for flexibility and for similar measures to be put in place for the fall.”

Paul Davidson, president and CEO of Universities Canada, which advocates for Canadian universities at the federal level, is looking to the fall intake. That’s when 50 per cent of international students enrol in universities and because now is when many are making decisions about where they’ll study in September.

“(If the infection) curve is not flattened, and in the event that visa processing takes a little longer, we would very much like to be able to onboard students online in the fall — its in the realm of contingency planning at this point,” said Davidson. “We want to do everything we can to make sure that Canada is a welcoming place … These next six to eight weeks are critical in terms of what the onboarding and the pipeline will look like for the fall for international students.”

“Billions of dollars are at risk if we’re not able to enrol international students in September,” he said, noting for some universities international students contribute 50 per cent of tuition revenue.

Online registration “will keep the door open to international students to come when it is safe to do so and feasible to do so, in terms of permits and processing.” And, he said, international student enrolment allows schools to offer more courses and labs, which also benefits domestic students.

Cindy McIntyre, assistant director of international relations for Universities Canada, called Tuesday’s announcement a “good first step,” but noted it doesn’t address the fall intake. She said she expects a decision about that cohort will be made “within weeks.”

The British company QS Quacquarelli Symonds, which analyzes global higher education, surveyed 14,416 prospective international students worldwide on the impact of the coronavirus. Among the 2,846 originally planning to come to Canada, 54 per cent intended to defer entry by a year, 9 per cent wanted to study in a different country and 6 per cent wanted to stay in their home country. Cumulatively, the number of lost applicants for Canada — those choosing another country or opting to remain home — is 15 per cent, which is similar to the United Kingdom. By comparison, it is 26 per cent for the European Union, 14 per cent for the United States, and 13 per cent for Australia.

In recent weeks Earl Blaney, a London, Ont., immigration consultant who is an education agent in the Philippines, has had several dozen clients request deferrals for the spring/summer and fall intakes. They were set to attend colleges such as Niagara, Lambton, Georgian, Conestoga, Seneca and Centennial.

He commended the government for giving students set to begin their programs in May or June the flexibility of doing online studies, but noted “it would have been a sensible announcement three weeks ago.”

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The “late notice” means many students have likely already made arrangements to travel here and quit jobs back home, while many schools have “initiated a flood of deferral offers to students from May to September.”

“Had this option been available three weeks ago, it would have prevented large losses to the education industry. Schools no longer have the time to market May intake under these circumstances.”

For many international students, one of their biggest concerns is being eligible for a work permit. Blaney suggested Canada — a top choice worldwide — can remain competitive by temporarily letting students enrol in programs from abroad and still issuing work permits upon completion so they can eventually come and work here.

“(That) would allow tuition revenue to keep flowing during this time, and keep everyone safe ... It is not meant to be long-term, rather a model of accommodation for both sides.”

A longer-term decision should be made as quickly as possible, he added, because it could impact whether prospective students see Canada as a viable option for 2021 since many start thinking of possible countries, schools and programs a year in advance.

Even for students who can enter Canada — those issued permits before March 18 — Blaney questioned if it’s wise to come, saying it will be tough for schools to accommodate them for the upcoming spring/summer intake because residences are closed and there’s limited staff to assist them.

“International intakes are usually all-hands-on-deck affairs,” said Blaney, referring to in-depth orientation sessions. “In this set of circumstances, students arrive blind and struggle to find their own accommodation. What’s the advantage? Schools get to cash student admission cheques, while the new students get to sit in isolation while taking online studies? Brutal welcome.”

Centennial College teacher RM Kennedy, also chair of the faculty division at OPSEU representing 17,000 unionized college faculty, worries about potential job loss, noting “If enrolment is down, we could see hundreds of contract faculty not being re-employed.”

There’s also a concern about revenue loss, said Kennedy, adding, “We’ve had decades of underfunding and the whole international strategy was designed to make up that shortfall…Without that revenue the colleges are going to take an enormous hit.”

The policy update on Tuesday “may alleviate some short-term financial pressure but it doesn’t address the need to properly fund and rebuild the college system going forward,” said Kennedy, pointing out it’s unclear if international students will even enrol in online programs.

Another concern is that international students invest a great deal in Canadian education and the opportunity to eventually get work permits and permanent residency.

“The exception is currently only for the summer semester, but what if shutdowns continue through the fall?” asked Kennedy. “If we accept international students, we have an ethical responsibility to support them through the completion of their studies with the ability to enter the country and get (work permits).”

International student Amey Jadhav, 27, who is doing a bachelor of business administration program at a Toronto college, was visiting family in India when Canada closed its borders. He could have returned, but decided to skip the upcoming term, despite not knowing how that would impact eligibility for a work permit, which is key because it will help him recoup study costs. He’s completed about half of his program, which costs about $54,000 in total.

“Online courses are a very thoughtful and viable option as it saves time that otherwise would have (been) wasted,” he said, but noted that in-person learning is “much more interactive.”

As for Olaifa, she’s “very happy” those scheduled to start in May or June can do online learning that’s eligible for a work permit. But she’s frustrated the announcement was just made, saying she couldn’t afford to wait for a decision and had to defer study plans until September.

Olaifa has a bachelor’s degree from the University of the Philippines Diliman and is currently working as a project director at an advertising agency. Her dream was to complete the one-year graduate certificate program at Fanshawe, which costs $16,000, then get a work permit, and apply for residency. It’s unclear if that dream will become a reality — or if she’ll even pursue her studies in the fall.

“As for online classes, personally, it is not the best time for me to study right now because of the uncertainties.”