by Aaron Schatz

It's been a topsy-turvy season all over the NFL, but so far everything is coming up aces for Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs. The NFL's only undefeated team is also No. 1 in DVOA through four weeks, with a huge lead over the rest of the league. Kansas City is at 43.3% DVOA, and no other team is over 30%. Pittsburgh is the highest, at 29.8%.

The Chiefs are a strong team, but not historically strong. Now that opponent adjustments have kicked in and boosted the Patriots' (still last place) defensive DVOA a little bit, no units this year qualify as particularly great or terrible historically. Perhaps the only worthy note along those lines is that the No. 1 Buffalo defense has the worst DVOA ever for a defense ranking No. 1 after four weeks. Still, the Bills were 27th in defensive DVOA last year and are enjoying the wonderful position of first place in the AFC East, so I think they'll take that.

The clearest trend through the first month of 2017 is the colossal gap between the bad teams and the rest of the league. With only one team undefeated and every team showing flaws, it may seem like there are fewer good teams in the NFL than usual. But the opposite is true: suddenly in 2017 the NFL has turned into Lake Wobegon. There are currently 20 teams with above-average DVOA ratings and only 12 teams that are below zero. That's how bad Indianapolis, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent Miami have been this year. None of them is historically among the worst September teams, but because there are three of them, that's enough to offset all of the teams sitting with DVOA ratings above zero. In fact, the gap isn't really 20 positive teams and 12 negative teams; it is really about 24 good or average teams and eight horrendous teams.

Dallas, New England, and Oakland are currently 21-23, all teams that were expected to be better this season and probably will be over the rest of the year. No. 24 is the "best winless team," the Los Angeles Chargers at -5.9% DVOA. And after that, the bottom falls out. There's a gap of almost 12 percentage points between the Chargers and the New York Jets, who climb to No. 25 this week. By the time we get to the Giants at No. 27, we're down around -30% DVOA. The teams at the bottom of the league are really, really bad. Of those bottom eight teams, the best offense belongs to the Giants at 22nd and the only defense better than average is Arizona which ranks 12th.

Another big trend this year is that the NFC has been far more predictable than the AFC, at least if you were trying to predict with the forecast in Football Outsiders Almanac 2017. Remember, we had the Rams as an average team, so their hot start is less of a surprise in our metrics. However, nobody expected the Patriots or Raiders to be this mediocre through four weeks. Nobody expected Buffalo to play so well. Nobody would have guessed that two AFC South teams would be in the top ten after a month, but both Houston and Jacksonville are up there because of one huge win: Jacksonville over Baltimore in Week 3, and Houston over Tennessee in Week 4.

And so, because the top AFC teams in DVOA are so different from the top AFC teams in our preseason forecast, the DAVE ratings are dominated by NFC teams. Ten of the top 13 teams in DAVE are NFC teams. Pittsburgh and Kansas City are first and second, and the Patriots' preseason forecast still has them at sixth in DAVE despite being 22nd in DVOA. But that's it. This also has an effect on our playoff odds report. Pittsburgh and Kansas City are way out ahead of the rest of the league in playoff odds because the NFC teams behind them in DAVE have so much competition within their conference. We currently list Pittsburgh with an 18.8 percent chance to win the Super Bowl and Kansas City with an 18.6 percent chance. No other team is above 7.0 percent.

A big part of the playoff odds report simulation is each team's schedules going forward, and this week is the season debut for the second weekly table that includes past and future schedule ratings. In the preseason we projected the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the league, but the rise of Houston and Kansas City means it has actually been the toughest in the league so far. That gets a lot easier from here on out, with the Patriots' remaining opponents ranked 25th (although only five of those are home games).

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Other teams whose schedules get much easier after September include Washington, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Houston, and -- I told you everything was coming up aces for Andy Reid -- Kansas City.

Teams whose schedules get much tougher after September include Arizona, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and especially Indianapolis. If the AFC South teams are truly better than expected, then Indianapolis has the toughest remaining schedule in the league over the final three months.

But are they really? Or did Houston and Jacksonville just each have one big game early on? Our usual schedule strength ratings are based on DVOA, and thus only based on performance during the season so far. That may not be the most accurate way to measure the schedule. Most of us, for example, don't expect Dallas and New England to continue to be average football teams for the rest of the year. So I also ran schedule strength using DAVE instead of DVOA. And the results... are actually quite similar to schedule strength using DVOA. Here are all four ratings -- past and future, DAVE and DVOA -- for you to consider and discuss in the comments below. Teams are in order by remaining schedule as ranked by DVOA of opponent.

Past and Remaining NFL Schedules for 2017, DVOA vs. DAVE TEAM DAVE

PAST RANK DAVE

FUTURE RANK DVOA

PAST RANK DVOA

FUTURE RANK IND -6.1% 26 2.3% 6 -11.2% 27 8.7% 1 MIA -6.7% 27 3.9% 3 -3.5% 21 6.7% 2 NYG 5.8% 6 4.0% 2 8.4% 6 6.4% 3 ARI -9.5% 30 3.4% 4 -15.3% 29 6.2% 4 DAL -2.7% 22 4.6% 1 -4.8% 23 5.8% 5 CLE -0.4% 16 2.1% 7 -3.8% 22 4.9% 6 NO -0.2% 15 0.9% 10 -6.4% 25 4.1% 7 OAK -1.0% 17 3.2% 5 4.6% 11 3.6% 8 GB 0.5% 14 1.3% 8 -2.6% 19 2.8% 9 CHI 10.9% 1 0.4% 11 13.2% 4 2.5% 10 TB -9.0% 28 1.0% 9 -17.1% 31 2.3% 11 SEA -10.6% 31 0.3% 13 -17.0% 30 1.5% 12 PIT -12.1% 32 0.2% 14 -18.2% 32 1.0% 13 CIN -4.3% 25 -0.8% 18 -5.8% 24 0.2% 14 ATL 1.9% 12 0.3% 12 4.5% 12 0.1% 15 CAR -1.2% 18 -0.9% 23 -0.3% 17 0.0% 16 TEAM DAVE

PAST RANK DAVE

FUTURE RANK DVOA

PAST RANK DVOA

FUTURE RANK NYJ -3.6% 24 0.1% 16 -3.4% 20 -0.3% 17 MIN 9.6% 3 0.2% 15 16.6% 3 -0.5% 18 LACH 2.5% 11 -0.4% 17 5.6% 9 -0.6% 19 LARM -9.4% 29 -1.3% 24 -14.9% 28 -1.4% 20 KC 6.8% 5 -0.9% 21 6.4% 8 -1.9% 21 DET -3.4% 23 -0.9% 20 -7.4% 26 -2.4% 22 DEN 1.6% 13 -0.8% 19 1.6% 15 -2.6% 23 SF 4.0% 10 -1.7% 25 4.1% 13 -3.0% 24 NE 8.0% 4 -3.5% 27 20.0% 1 -3.5% 25 PHI 4.7% 8 -0.9% 22 7.8% 7 -4.2% 26 WAS 10.8% 2 -1.9% 26 17.9% 2 -5.4% 27 HOU 4.4% 9 -4.8% 30 4.9% 10 -7.0% 28 BAL -1.4% 19 -4.0% 29 -1.6% 18 -7.4% 29 BUF -1.5% 20 -4.0% 28 2.2% 14 -8.9% 30 JAC -2.5% 21 -7.1% 31 1.6% 16 -11.0% 31 TEN 4.7% 7 -9.1% 32 8.5% 5 -13.4% 32

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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 18. This week, we've got TWO sets of content: our weekly content for Madden Mobile and our monthly content for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles.

These players will get special Madden Mobile items branded as "Powerline, powered by Football Outsiders," beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. The Football Outsiders stars for Week 4 are:

DT Gerald McCoy, TB: 3 run TFL, QB hit.

3 run TFL, QB hit. OLB Cory James, OAK: 10 solo tackles including two preventing third-down conversions and two TFL.

10 solo tackles including two preventing third-down conversions and two TFL. C Ali Marpet, TB: Helped control the powerful New York Giants pass rush.

Helped control the powerful New York Giants pass rush. FS William Parks, DEN: Four tackles to prevent conversions on third or fourth downs.

Four tackles to prevent conversions on third or fourth downs. LG Rodger Saffold, LARM: Helped lead Titans RB to 52 yards on nine carries running left; no sacks allowed.

And here are the Football Outsiders September players for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles, which will go live at 10:30am Eastern on Wednesday. All of these players are elites (80 overall or better).

QB Jared Goff, LARM: Leads all QB in passing DVOA through Week 4, completing 67 percent of passes for 9.2 yards per attempt.

Leads all QB in passing DVOA through Week 4, completing 67 percent of passes for 9.2 yards per attempt. RB Dalvin Cook, MIN: Third among RB with 79 rushing DYAR (4.8 yards per carry, 88.5 yards per game, 2 TD).

Third among RB with 79 rushing DYAR (4.8 yards per carry, 88.5 yards per game, 2 TD). WR Keenan Allen, LACH: Fourth among WR with 105 receiving DYAR (24-of-40, 334 yards, TD).

Fourth among WR with 105 receiving DYAR (24-of-40, 334 yards, TD). LT Taylor Lewan, TEN: Titans lead league with lowest adjusted sack rate and rank fourth in adjusted line yards on runs around left end.

Titans lead league with lowest adjusted sack rate and rank fourth in adjusted line yards on runs around left end. C John Sullivan, LARM: Only 2 blown blocks through Week 3; Rams rank fourth in adjusted sack rate and fourth in adjusted line yards between the tackles.

Only 2 blown blocks through Week 3; Rams rank fourth in adjusted sack rate and fourth in adjusted line yards between the tackles. RG A.J. Cann, JAC: Jaguars are second in adjusted sack rate and sixth in adjusted line yards on runs to the right side.

Jaguars are second in adjusted sack rate and sixth in adjusted line yards on runs to the right side. LE DeMarcus Lawrence, DAL: Leads NFL with 8.0 sacks; tied for lead with 12 defeats.

Leads NFL with 8.0 sacks; tied for lead with 12 defeats. MLB Wesley Woodyard, TEN: Leads NFL with 18 run stops (plays that stop a run short of baseline for a successful gain); third among defenders with 11 defeats.

Leads NFL with 18 run stops (plays that stop a run short of baseline for a successful gain); third among defenders with 11 defeats. CB E.J. Gaines, BUF: Fourth in CB success rate, 14th in yards per pass (through Week 3).

Fourth in CB success rate, 14th in yards per pass (through Week 3). FS Budda Baker, ARI: Tied for NFL lead with 7 special teams tackles.

Tied for NFL lead with 7 special teams tackles. K Matt Prater, DET: 8-for-9 on field goals including 4-for-5 from 55 or more yards.

8-for-9 on field goals including 4-for-5 from 55 or more yards. P Marquette King, OAK: Leads NFL with average gross 52.1 yards, average net 47.0 yards. Also has 9 punts ending inside 20.

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All stats pages should now be updated through Week 4, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium DVOA database.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through four weeks of 2017, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 40 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 50 percent of DAVE for most teams (60 percent for Miami and Tampa Bay).

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 KC 43.3% 1 22.4% 2 4-0 38.3% 1 -5.4% 11 -0.4% 19 2 PIT 29.8% 2 26.6% 1 3-1 12.4% 7 -19.2% 3 -1.7% 24 3 LARM 23.4% 3 12.8% 3 3-1 14.4% 6 -2.8% 13 6.2% 4 4 WAS 23.1% 6 11.9% 7 2-2 7.7% 14 -16.9% 6 -1.5% 22 5 DET 21.7% 4 11.7% 8 3-1 -3.3% 21 -17.1% 5 7.9% 1 6 BUF 18.4% 7 3.2% 16 3-1 -5.2% 23 -21.2% 1 2.4% 11 7 HOU 16.6% 22 3.3% 15 2-2 -1.8% 19 -17.8% 4 0.6% 18 8 JAC 14.8% 8 2.2% 17 2-2 1.8% 17 -16.9% 7 -3.8% 27 9 NO 13.4% 11 2.2% 18 2-2 19.2% 3 6.4% 20 0.6% 16 10 MIN 11.2% 12 4.2% 12 2-2 17.1% 5 5.3% 19 -0.6% 21 11 GB 11.0% 16 12.3% 5 3-1 9.7% 10 0.7% 15 2.0% 12 12 PHI 10.8% 14 7.2% 9 3-1 9.8% 9 3.0% 17 4.0% 8 13 ATL 10.7% 9 7.1% 10 3-1 12.4% 8 7.0% 22 5.4% 5 14 DEN 9.2% 13 1.3% 20 3-1 3.4% 16 -14.4% 8 -8.6% 29 15 SEA 8.4% 19 12.5% 4 2-2 8.6% 13 -1.5% 14 -1.7% 23 16 CAR 6.8% 17 4.0% 13 3-1 -2.5% 20 -6.6% 10 2.8% 10 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 TEN 3.8% 5 1.2% 21 2-2 18.5% 4 18.0% 31 3.3% 9 18 BAL 3.7% 10 3.6% 14 2-2 -18.0% 26 -21.1% 2 0.6% 17 19 CIN 3.3% 24 2.0% 19 1-3 -15.2% 25 -14.4% 9 4.1% 7 20 TB 1.4% 20 -2.3% 23 2-1 9.6% 12 10.2% 25 2.0% 13 21 DAL -0.2% 15 6.3% 11 2-2 4.4% 15 8.8% 24 4.3% 6 22 NE -2.5% 23 12.0% 6 2-2 27.3% 2 30.9% 32 1.0% 14 23 OAK -5.9% 18 0.8% 22 2-2 1.2% 18 13.7% 27 6.6% 3 24 LACH -5.9% 21 -4.0% 24 0-4 9.6% 11 1.3% 16 -14.3% 32 25 NYJ -17.8% 26 -18.2% 27 2-2 -14.7% 24 4.0% 18 0.8% 15 26 ARI -22.2% 25 -13.4% 26 2-2 -19.0% 27 -4.9% 12 -8.2% 28 27 NYG -29.5% 29 -11.5% 25 0-4 -3.9% 22 14.5% 28 -11.1% 31 28 SF -30.5% 30 -22.4% 30 0-4 -30.2% 31 8.1% 23 7.7% 2 29 CHI -33.0% 28 -19.6% 28 1-3 -23.2% 28 6.9% 21 -2.9% 26 30 MIA -41.0% 27 -20.8% 29 1-2 -23.8% 29 14.7% 29 -2.5% 25 31 IND -52.1% 32 -33.6% 31 1-3 -41.0% 32 10.7% 26 -0.4% 19 32 CLE -54.5% 31 -36.4% 32 0-4 -30.1% 30 15.3% 30 -9.1% 30

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).