STRANGE as it might seem, the modern Olympic games might owe their existence to the sport of rugby. In 1883, 11 years before founding the International Olympic Committee (IOC), Pierre de Coubertin observed how “organised sport can create moral and social strength” on the playing fields of Rugby School—where the game was invented. Coubertin himself refereed the first-ever French rugby championship final in 1892 and helped introduce the sport into the Olympic schedule. Rugby was contested four times at the Olympics in the early twentieth century, with America winning twice, before being dropped from the line-up due to a lack of teams wanting to participate.

Nearly a century later, the sport has been added to the Olympic roster once again. Under the presidency of Jacques Rogge, who earned ten international caps for the Belgian rugby team, the IOC voted to include the seven-a-side version of the game in the Rio schedule. The Americans will be the long-standing defending champions in the men’s tournament, which kicks off tomorrow. With a squad of fleet-footed sprinters, the Eagles finished sixth in the most recent World Rugby Sevens Series, and have a good chance of a medal. Rugby Vision, a forecasting model which predicts results in major competitions, gives them a 24% chance of a podium finish; the bookmakers’ odds, which are five-to-one, suggest a chance of 17%. Rugby Vision’s model is bullish on Argentina, which came fifth in the World Series, and bearish on New Zealand, which came third. And these forecasts may well be worth paying attention to. They comfortably beat the bookies at the last Rugby World Cup, and the four teams that Rugby Vision rated highest in the women’s competition have made the semi-finals, which will take place tonight.

The high-tempo, skilful game on display in Rio bears little resemblance to the vicious rucking that inspired Coubertin 130 years ago. But he would be pleased to know that rugby’s Olympic legacy lives on.