80% of total 2016/17 Argentina’s grain production still has not been priced

By Emilce Terré

BCR

As an average for the last 5 years the ratio of production traded at the end of April was very similar. Last year, 75% of the output was negotiated prior to May, while during the last 10 years the average was 70%.

If we analize each crop separatly, the main delays in pricing are seen for soy and corn. In the case of soybean, only 9% of the estimated production has a firm price to date, when the average during the last five years is 14%. In the case of corn, only 22% of the production that the Ministry of Agriculture may estimate (although the number was not yet published, we projected it using historical data), when the average for the last five crop years was 27%.

In the case of wheat, 57% of a production estimated at 18.4 million tonnes has already a firm price, in line with the average of the last five years at the end of April, while sunflower and barley show a greater interest in determining the value of the contracts, with 43% and 64% of the respective production already priced (the average of the alst 5 years was 42% and 51%). Meanwhile, 5% of the projected sorghum production has already a firm price, above the average of 3% for the last five years but well below the average of the last 10.

On the other hand, the proportion of the businesses that have been made under the «delayed pricing» modality over total trades to May set a record compared with the average for the last five and ten years, as it’s shown in Table 1.

It can be observed that in general, the percentage of the production that has already been bought to this date this season reaches 36%, below both the average of the last 5 and 10 years. Nonetheless, not only less production has been sale but also a lower amount of grains has been priced: the ratio of businesses done with delayed pricing contracts reached 38% this year, versus 34% as an average over the last five years and 33% on the last decade.

This scheme of lower proportion of grain already bought and less interest in fixing price is repeated for soy and corn. In the case of the oilseed, less than a third of the estimated production has been purchased, and 71% of these businesses were done under the delayed pricing modality, relative to the 56% average for the last 5 years. For corn, although more tons were bought, the phenomenal increase in estimated production as projected by our Ministry of Agriculture in the last few years pushed the ratio purchases to production lower. At the same time, delayed pricing trades amounts to 26% of the transactions, against the average of 23% for the previous five years.

In the cases of wheat and sunflower the volume of purchases in terms of estimated production is less than normal, although unlike previous cases the proportion of businesses in which pricing is delayed turned out lower than it uses to. For wheat, about 66% of the estimated production has already been bought, while 14% used the delayed pricing kind of contracts (last 5 years average amounts to 67% of purchases and 15% “to be fixed” trades). For sunflower, 60% of the estimated production has been traded (against the average 63% of the previous five seasons), while 28% has been done delaying pricing (against the previous 34%). In the cases of barley and sorghum, with a harvest significantly lower than the rest of the grains, the situation is very dissimilar in each campaign so it is not possible to speak of a clear trend in the business modality.

Taking into account the great importance that exports of grains and by-products has on aur macroeconomic results, the 100 million tons that at the end of April have not yet been priced boosts risks for our external accounts.

Rosario Grains Exchange / Rosario Board of Trade

BCR