Nine in 10 Republican insiders from the early states think former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s support for Common Core hurts his presidential prospects, but only a small minority believes that his backing of the education standards will prove fatal.

The POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the most important activists, operatives and elected officials in Iowa and New Hampshire, asked participants to rank on a scale of zero to 10 how politically problematic it is for a GOP presidential candidate to back Common Core in their state — with zero being totally inconsequential and 10 being disqualifying. The average response was a 6.


“This is the number-one issue Bush faces in Iowa with caucusgoers,” said a top Iowa Republican, who — like all 81 respondents — completed the questionnaire anonymously in order to speak candidly.

“Right now, it’s a big issue among suburban GOP women,” added a New Hampshire Republican, “which is a demographic that is central to him winning New Hampshire.”

Common Core has plummeted in popularity over the last two years, especially among Republicans. The math and English Language Arts standards originally grew out of the bipartisan National Governors Association, but they’re now known by many conservative activists as “ObamaCore.”

Republican candidates are asked about Common Core nearly every time they take questions from voters in the early states. The GOP-controlled state legislature in New Hampshire just passed a bill allowing school districts to opt out of Common Core.

Bush, who cultivated a brand as an education-focused governor in Florida, has refused to back down from his support. Only a few months ago he mocked the program’s conservative critics and called the debate “troubling.” As he’s recognized the issue’s toxicity, he’s toned down his rhetoric and now stresses that he opposes federal curriculum mandates.

But, crucially, the people who are angriest about this are the least likely to vote for Bush anyway.

“It might take as little as 30 percent to win next year,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “It’s a great talking point to ding Jeb. But he won’t lose because of the Common Core issue.”

For their part, Republican governors like Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal and Scott Walker have all backed away from the standards after implementing them in their states. Rick Perry, one of the few governors to oppose them from the beginning, calls it “every bit as problematic as Obamacare.” Ted Cruz promises to “repeal every word” if elected. Jindal brags that he’s suing the federal government to block it.

This week, a group called the Collaborative for Student Success began airing commercials in Iowa to try promoting the standards. Targeting conservatives, the spot stars Bill Bennett, who served as Ronald Reagan’s education secretary.

But if Common Core is a problem for Bush, insiders differ over how he should deal with it.

“Selling Iowa Republicans on supporting Common Core is like getting your local church to have Satan as a special guest at their next soup supper,” said a senior Iowa Republican. “Bush should ignore Common Core and instead focus on what he did as governor in the area of education, like promoting charter schools, English immersion, tax credits for low-income families who send their kids to private schools and school vouchers.”

The vast majority of respondents in both parties agreed that Bush would suffer more from flip-flopping, which would look insincere, than trying to explain his position.

“He should ignore the Right (which will never believe him anyway) and play to center on this issue,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “If he is going to win this primary, he can only win it in the center and chasing to the right will not help him.”

Bush allies point to a February Marist poll to defend the merit of that approach: 57 percent of Iowa’s potential Republican electorate said they could accept a candidate who supported Common Core. The figure was 47 percent in New Hampshire.

“He doesn’t have to say much, just promise to work with governors and state officials and reassure the Republicans that he is for local control,” explained a New Hampshire Democrat. “They don’t like Common Core, but they want to win the White House and they know Jeb will have the money. So, while it will hurt somewhat, it will not be a fatal wound.”

Here are three other takeaways from this 11th edition of The POLITICO Caucus—

Only 1 in 5 Democrats think the “Clinton Cash” book is a problem for Hillary’s campaign.

After many Republicans praised her announcement last week, this week’s Caucus reflects a return to polarized views about Hillary Clinton. The news has been dominated by stories about the contents of a forthcoming book called “Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Help Make Bill and Hillary Rich.”

Even though every Republican surveyed thinks this book will become a problem for her campaign; eight in 10 Democrats say it will not.

“There are no undecideds on Hillary,” said an Iowa Democrat. “For the haters, it just confirms their suspicions. For the die-hards, it’s just ‘The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy’ back at work.”

This was a common theme. “Those who already oppose her will take it as excuse number 1,428 to dislike her, those who support her will be energized in their defense of her and the undecided in the middle will tune it out,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.

Most Democrats spun the book’s revelations as a hatchet job by a conservative author. A few in New Hampshire noted that none of the participants at her two days of events this week asked Clinton about the foundation.

“We have seen this movie before, and we know how it ends,” said a Democrat there. “The new definition of insanity is Republicans attacking Hillary Clinton the same way over and over again thinking it will lead to a different result.”

Democrats said they’re buckled up for 18 months of negative coverage. “There will be lots of books between now and November 2016,” said an Iowa Democrat. “All is decided on how she manages the minefield. So far, so good.”

Other Democrats said they could not answer the question without reading the book or knowing the strength of the allegations. “It will make some headlines, but it won’t be a huge problem, just a pesky, annoying one,” said someone in New Hampshire.

A New Hampshire Democrat who dismissed the book as lacking credibility said some bedwetting within the party is inevitable. “There will be a handful of Democrats (including a couple of your survey respondents!) who will gnash their teeth, etc.,” the insider said, “but they never support the ‘establishment’ candidate anyway.”

One of these proverbial teeth gnashers from the Granite State explained that he’s withholding judgment until he reads the whole book. “These story lines are exotic (Russian oligarchs! Colombian rogues!) … and whether they end up being true or not, they feed the grand narrative of mistrust that roughly half the American people will always have towards the Clintons,” he said.

Many of the Republicans who said the book is a problem used the term “drip, drip, drip.” They hope it stays in the news and doesn’t fade away like the email scandal.

A New Hampshire Republican predicted that the Clinton Foundation fundraising problems will be far worse than the email scandal. “They’re already circulating memos attempting to discredit the author who wrote a book that’s yet to be released,” he said.

A sense of hopeless futility characterized the views of some of the 16 percent of Republicans who said the book won’t cause problems. “The Clintons are Teflon-coated,” said an Iowan.

An Iowa Republican said it will ultimately come down to who the GOP nominates: “Since 1992, America has been inundated by Clinton scandals. She’s not a likable or trustworthy figure to most Americans. But, in the end, she will be measured against the Republican candidate against her. Are they credible, likeable, trustworthy? If so, they will beat her.”

There is no clamoring among Republicans for John Kasich or Rick Snyder to get into the race.

The Ohio governor says he’s praying on whether to run for president and announced a 527 tax-exempt group this week to test the waters. Last weekend, at the New Hampshire GOP’s candidate summit, Kasich asked activists to hold off on supporting anyone else while he decides.

But nine of 10 Republican insiders in both Iowa and New Hampshire said there is no clamoring for him to run in their state.

“Kasich is only influential in this race because he is from Ohio,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “It forces the GOP to ‘take him seriously’… but no one will take him seriously.”

Kasich, who ran for president in 2000 before dropping out in the face of George W. Bush’s fundraising and endorsement juggernaut, is seen as having a much better shot in New Hampshire than Iowa. He’s perceived as a relative moderate who could benefit from the state’s open primary but who would struggle in the lower-turnout, more conservative Iowa caucuses.

Former Granite State Sen. John E. Sununu, a good friend of Kasich’s from their days together in the House, is a director of his new 527 group.

That explains why just one-in-10 Iowa Democrats report any clamoring for Kasich, compared to four-in-10 New Hampshire Democrats.

“This guy is like a more animated and feisty version of Gov. John Lynch,” said a New Hampshire Democrat, complimenting Kasich by comparing him to the former Democratic governor. “He gives off that vibe of caring about the policy more than the politics. If you can get moderates excited in New Hampshire, you can create a tidal wave at the ballot box.” (Another Democrat who said Kasich would become “the Jon Huntsman of the 2016 cycle” was not paying a compliment.)

Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, though not as serious about it as Kasich, has been huddling with his top advisers about running. He also just created a 501(c)(4) to pay for out-of-state travel and ads promoting his five years of success.

Many respondents joked that they don’t even know who Snyder is.

“Eh and Meh,” a New Hampshire Republican said to describe Kasich and Snyder.

“There isn’t enough oxygen in the room for either of them,” said another, “never mind both of them.”

Republicans in both states speculated that Kasich and Snyder each want to position themselves to be on vice presidential short lists.

“The Midwest Governor slot is already filled with Walker, so clearly the space they would attempt to occupy would be the pragmatic problem-solver,” said an uncommitted New Hampshire Republican. “Unfortunately, Bush is already there. Thus, it would take either Walker or Bush faltering for Kasich or Snyder to find oxygen.”

Two people in New Hampshire made the point that Kasich could appeal to Jeb voters who are worried about the dynastic implications of a third Bush presidency. A couple people pointed out that Kasich would be well-positioned to take away voters who would have supported Chris Christie if the New Jersey governor continues to slide.

Kasich and Snyder also both support Common Core.

Iowa Republican insiders think Cruz had the best rollout; for Granite Staters, it’s Rubio.

Asked who gained the most from their official presidential announcement, twice as many Iowans picked Ted Cruz as anyone else and three times as many in New Hampshire picked Marco Rubio as anyone else.

Democrats overwhelmingly named Clinton but were most likely to pick Rubio among the Republicans.

There is widespread agreement, even among his critics, that Cruz was smart to be the first presidential candidate out of the box. His appearance at Liberty University in Virginia dominated the news for a few days, and he showed himself as someone who can raise enough money — combined with the sheer force of his personality — to command attention.

Cruz “set the tone for the race,” said an Iowa Republican.

“The Cruz support is very wide, and with staff on the ground it will now go deeper,” said another.

Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, Rubio got the most praise. Many activists mentioned the contrast he got with Clinton, who formally announced via video the day before Rubio’s event in Miami. The first-term Florida senator painted Clinton as yesterday’s news and looked like a youthful figure representing generational change.

“He got a nice bump that was positive, and he looked fresh,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.

Several New Hampshire Republicans declared Rubio the winner so far because he did not gaffe. “Solid impressions and most importantly the lack of mistakes,” said one. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), in contrast, had testy interviews with NBC and the Associated Press.

“From the first five minutes of the speech you know what is motivating him to run for president,” said a Republican.

Rubio also got good marks for his dinner speech at the New Hampshire GOP cattle call last weekend. Warming up the crowd Saturday night, former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) got applause for telling Rubio: “I thought your rollout has been very professional and well done.”

When he took the stage, Rubio repaid the compliment. He praised Brown, who lost a comeback bid in New Hampshire last November, for being one of the few members who actually worked out in the Senate gym.

“Everyone else is just there to watch ‘Morning Joe,’” said Rubio.

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.