Alexandria, Va.

Ed Gillespie is the Republican with the best prospects for winning the Virginia governor's race this fall. However, it's anything but a cinch. Gillespie has to win the GOP primary on June 13, and he's heavily favored to do so. Then he would face a Democrat who is certain to portray him as President Trump's alter ego.

It's a rough road ahead. And Trump isn't the only problem. For decades, Virginia was a Republican state—that is, until Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary Clinton whipped Trump in last year's presidential race. No Republican has won statewide since 2009.

"Virginia is a blue-tinged purple state," says political science professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. Democrats think they have the advantage for another reason. The last four Republicans who won the governorship concentrated on running against a Democratic president elected the year before. It worked every time. Gillespie doesn't have that luxury.

What makes Gillespie, 55, a strong candidate are his conservatism, demeanor, and political skill. He's fortunate Virginia voters no longer insist their governor hail from the state. He grew up in New Jersey.

He's compensated for that by becoming a Virginia chauvinist. "You cannot find anyone who loves Virginia more than I do," Gillespie says. "It's impossible. Virginia is inside me."

Gillespie is a center-right conservative. You could call him a Bush conservative. He's for a 10 percent cut in the Virginia income tax rate. In his TV ads, the cut is labeled "conservative," and it is. On immigration, he's backed a centrist position that would provide illegal immigrants a path to legal status but not citizenship.

The distinction here is that his conservatism appeals to mushy moderates and right-wingers. It's designed to work that way. And it did in 2014, when he came within an eyelash of defeating Democratic senator Mark Warner, then regarded as the most popular politician in the state.

The near-miss elevated Gillespie to the front of the GOP bench. It wasn't merely because he came so close. That he ran a brilliant, disciplined campaign, the best since Bob McDonnell's in 2009, was a factor. McDonnell was elected governor by 17 percentage points after thwarting a bid by the Washington Post to stigmatize him over a college paper he'd written. He had President Obama to run against.

A senior Republican says McDonnell and Gillespie are two peas in a pod: "He's like Bob McDonnell. They are very positive. They're not confrontational. They've got policy ideas. They always have a grin on their face. They're never scary." He forgot to mention both are conservatives.

That wasn't the case with Trump in 2016 and Ken Cuccinelli in 2013. Trump lost to Clinton by 5 percentage points, Cuccinelli to Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe by 2.5 points. "They got clobbered in Northern Virginia," the Republican says, "because they came across as scary. Cuccinelli was angry. Trump wanted to clean the swamp" in a region filled with government workers and immigrants who are part of the swamp.

Gillespie ran a patient race against Warner in 2014. He slowly and unobtrusively gained ground, then rallied in the closing weeks and took Warner by surprise. If the GOP Senate campaign committee had spent money on Gillespie's finishing kick, he might have won.

At the moment, Gillespie has to deal with two annoying primary opponents. Corey Stewart, the chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors—it's in the exurbs of Washington—attacks Gillespie noisily as "Establishment Ed." Gillespie was Republican national chairman from 2003 to 2005 and a counselor to President George W. Bush from 2007 to 2009.

Gillespie rarely responds. He leaves it to his press secretary Abbi Sigler to engage his rivals and reporters. Last week, Stewart accused him of "smuggling illegal aliens into this country. He's complicit in human trafficking." Gillespie's Washington lobbying firm had been retained by Tyson Foods, which was charged with smuggling Mexicans across the border. Sigler responded by email. Tyson was later acquitted.

Gillespie couldn't ignore Stewart and the third Republican candidate, state senator Frank Wagner, a conserv­ative from Virginia Beach, in their three debates, five forums, and twelve joint appearances. At a Lynchburg debate in April, Stewart claimed Gillespie favors an individual mandate for health insurance. "Google 'Corey Stewart lies' and you'll be amazed at all that pops up," Gillespie replied.

Though he insists on focusing on Virginia issues, Stewart, the two Democratic candidates, and the media are obsessed with Trump. They want to pressure Gillespie into embracing Trump or spurning him. He does neither. He drives his opponents crazy by lingering on the fence.

When Trump fired FBI director James Comey, Gillespie was silent, but his campaign put out a statement in his name. The firing raised "many questions and concerns . . . and I look forward to learning more about its timing and rationale," it said. "Wishy-washy," Wagner huffed. "It's typical of Ed Gillespie to come up with no kind of comments."

Indeed, it is. Gillespie avoids being linked to Trump. He has nothing to gain from it. His aides say he's never asked about Trump—except by the press. But Sabato says Trump is a "giant burden for the GOP nominee." Mark Rozell of George Mason University told the Post that Republican candidates "will carry the negative taint" of Trump and his administration. They can't avoid it.

Rather than squabble with Stewart and Warner, Gillespie is saving his ammunition for the Democratic nominee. If Tom Perriello wins, he would be the most left-wing candidate for governor of Virginia ever. He's been endorsed by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Valerie Jarrett. He's dragged his rival Lt. Governor Ralph Northam to the left behind him.

Gillespie is armed and dangerous whether it's Perriello or Northam. Gillespie has done his homework. Perriello is for repealing the state's popular right-to-work law and Northam is leaning that way. They're for a mandatory $15-an-hour minimum wage. They identify with the "Resist­ance," the left-wing crazies who've mobilized against Trump. And there's much more.

Winning in Virginia comes down to one county, Fairfax. It's just outside D.C., has 1.2 million people, and is wealthy, educated, very diverse, and Democratic. A Republican doesn't need to win Fairfax, but being blown out there means you lose the state. Stewart and Wagner have no chance. But Gillespie lives in Fairfax, knows how to campaign there, and got 41.5 percent of the county's vote against Warner in 2014. Fairfax by itself is why Gillespie is the Republican with the best chance of becoming governor. Probably the only one with a chance, too.

Fred Barnes is an executive editor at The Weekly Standard .