Where Do The Top Four Candidates Stand

Similar to the finish in Iowa, New Hampshire polls indicate Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg vying for first place, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden further back.

Since mid-January, Sanders has held a consistent average lead in Granite State polls. Buttigieg only recently saw a bump, post-Iowa.

Here’s a small update on where each of the four front-runners stands tonight:

Sanders Sanders finished in a virtual tie in Iowa and takes the debate stage tonight just a day after his campaign announced it raised $25 million last month. The campaign said it was its “single best fundraising month to date.” And that’s saying something, considering Sanders has led fundraising in the Democratic field for much of the past year. In the same announcement, the campaign said it would also be increasing staff in Super Tuesday states. And remember, Sanders comes into this New Hampshire primary after winning it in 2016 by 22 percentage points.

Buttigieg Despite no official winner called out of Iowa, Buttigieg appears to have gotten a bounce after leading in estimated delegates and finishing in a virtual tie with Sanders. It sent a message to his competitors that he might be the one to beat among the moderates. New Hampshire, like Iowa, is also an overwhelmingly white electorate, which could help Buttigieg, given his struggles in the polls with voters of color. But New Hampshire also poses a potentially greater challenge than Iowa, given Sanders and Warren have something of home-state advantages being from states next door.

Warren After finishing third in Iowa, Warren heads into the debate tonight with a lot on the line. She needs to do well in New Hampshire, and that means at least finishing ahead of — or very close to — Sanders. Warren has high name recognition here being from neighboring Massachusetts, but Sanders also has home-turf advantage being from neighboring Vermont.

Biden Following a fourth-place finish in Iowa, former Vice President Joe Biden admitted to supporters Wednesday that the caucus results had been “a gut punch.” Biden continues to poll well in Nevada and South Carolina, two states with more diverse electorates than Iowa and New Hampshire, but Biden can’t afford anymore bad headlines. South Carolina is a must-win for Biden. He has overwhelming support with black voters, who make up the majority of the electorate in the Palmetto State, but he needs to perform well at tonight’s debate to reassure those voters that he’s got what it takes.