And so, we arrive at Gameweek 38, the last roll of the Fantasy dice for 3 months. It has been a rather atypical season, to say the least, so read on as we analyse the bookies’ odds for the final time this term in an effort to help you win those all-important mini leagues and climb the rankings…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Arsenal 1.83 55% Southampton 1.95 51% Man Utd 2.1 48% Man City 2.62 38% Everton 3 33% Tottenham 3 33% Watford 3.2 31% West Ham 3.5 29% West Brom 3.6 28% Chelsea 3.9 26% Liverpool 4.4 23% Leicester 4.8 21% Sunderland 5 20% Stoke 5 20% Newcastle 6 17% Norwich 6.5 15% Swansea 8.5 12% Bournemouth 9 11% Crystal Palace 9.5 11% Aston Villa 19 5%

A home clash against the dire Aston Villa is as close to a guaranteed clean sheet as you can get, so it is no surprise to see Arsenal top the bookmakers’ defensive rankings with a 55% chance of registering a shutout. The Villains have blanked in 4 of their last 6 on the road, whilst the Gunners have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 at The Emirates. As a result, we double up on Arsene Wenger’s defence, calling upon the attacking instincts of Hector Bellerin and the budget friendly starting security of Gabriel.

Southampton (51%) rank 2nd for the gameweek. Despite not keeping a clean sheet in their last 5 home games, the fact that they face a Crystal Palace side with eyes on the FA Cup final next weekend certainly plays into their hands. The Eagles have blanked in their last 2 away ties, so Virgil van Dijk will hope for returns at both ends of the pitch, having already notched 3 in his maiden Premier League campaign. Fraser Forster is also drafted in as our backup keeper for the weekend.

Manchester United (48%), Manchester City (38%) and Everton (33%) complete the top 5 for this round of fixtures. Having conceded just 8 goals at home all season, the best record in the league, the Red Devils will be confident of another clean sheet against a Bournemouth side who have nothing left to play for. David de Gea is a safe pair of hands between the sticks and is handed goalkeeping duties for our Gameweek 38 squad. Manchester rivals City travel to South Wales knowing that shutting out Swansea will secure a 4th place finish. After 3 clean sheets in their last 5 on unfamiliar soil we plump for Eliaquim Mangala, assured a starting spot in the absence of injured skipper Vincent Kompany. Following the sacking of Roberto Martinez after a disappointing season, we can expect an uplift in performance from the Toffees, with their opponents this weekend an already-relegated Norwich side who have scored just once in their last 6 away from home. Matthew Pennington is a cheap route into Everton’s defence, having started each of the last 3, and takes the final place on our bench.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Bournemouth (11% – away to Man United), Crystal Palace (11% – away to Southampton) and Aston Villa (5% – away to Arsenal) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Olivier Giroud 1.73 58% Sergio Aguero 1.75 57% Alexis Sanchez 1.85 54% Harry Kane 2.2 45% Marcus Rashford 2.2 45% Romelu Lukaku 2.2 45% Shane Long 2.25 44% Anthony Martial 2.4 42% Jamie Vardy 2.75 36% Christian Benteke 2.8 36% Troy Deeney 2.8 36% Sadio Mane 2.8 36% Jermain Defoe 2.85 35% Kevin de Bruyne 2.85 35% Diafra Sakho 2.88 35% Salomon Rondon 2.88 35% Bertrand Traore 3 33% Juan Mata 3.2 31% Marko Arnautovic 3.25 31% Peter Crouch 3.3 30% Papiss Cisse 3.4 29% Dieumerci Mbokani 3.5 29% Eden Hazard 3.5 29% Ross Barkley 3.6 28% Riyad Mahrez 3.75 27% Andre Ayew 3.75 27% Bafetimbi Gomis 3.9 26% Christian Eriksen 4 25% Dimitri Payet 4.33 23% Georginio Wijnaldum 4.33 23% Callum Wilson 4.5 22% Wahbi Khazri 4.75 21% Connor Wickham 5 20% Nathan Redmond 5 20% Nordin Amrabat 5.25 19% Sheyi Ojo 5.5 18% Josh King 5.6 18% Yannick Bolasie 7 14% Jordan Ayew 7 14% Ashley Westwood 26 4%

Back amongst the goals last weekend after a barren spell of 15 games, Olivier Giroud tops the bookies’ attacking ranks with a 58% chance of scoring against Aston Villa. With Danny Welbeck out through injury, the Frenchman will have the chance to finish the season with a bang as he goes up against the shakiest defence in the division (72 goals conceded). As a result of his position atop the rankings, he dons our captain’s armband for the gameweek.

Sergio Aguero (57%) and Marcus Rashford (45%) complete our front 3 for Sunday’s games. With City needing a result against Swansea to secure 4th place, Aguero will likely, as always, be key for the Citizens. After 8 goals in his last 6 outings and with the Golden Boot still to play for, the bookies fancy the Argentine to finish with a flourish. United’s teenage sensation Rashford will be tasked with adding to the 7 goals he has scored this in all competitions this season as the Red Devils attempt to usurp their rivals in the race for Champions League qualification. They face a Bournemouth side without a clean sheet in 9.

Sadio Mane (36%), on the back of 5 goals in his last 4 appearances, is our 1st midfield pick. The Senegalese flyer faces FA Cup finalists Crystal Palace, whose attentions will be elsewhere and could field a weakened side, with the fact that the Eagles have only registered 2 shutouts in their last 18 league games adding to Mane’s potential. Joining him in our midfield is Kevin de Bruyne as we double up on City’s attack ahead of their crucial game at The Liberty. The Belgian has played a part in 17 Premier League goals (7 strikes, 10 assists) for Manuel Pellegrini’s men this season, and notched in the 2-2 draw against Arsenal last time out. With the Swans conceding 9 in their last 4, de Bruyne could certainly profit.

Bertrand Traore (33%) and Juan Mata (31%) complete our midfield quartet for Gameweek 38. With Diego Costa injured, Burkina Faso forward Traore, who is listed as a midfielder in the Fantasy realm, provides us with an out-of-position prospect. After starting for Chelsea last time out at Anfield, the frontman is expected to retain his spot in the starting XI for the visit of newly-crowned champions Leicester. The selection of Mata sees us double up on United’s attacking assets for the visit of Bournemouth, with the Spanish schemer registering a goal and an assist in Gameweek 37 to pique our interest. Marko Arnautovic (31%), despite a goal and an assist in his last pair of appearances, has to settle for a place on our bench this time round.

Other viable options include Alexis Sanchez (54%), Harry Kane (45%), Romelu Lukaku (45%), but they fail to make our squad due to budget and/or squad selection restraints.

TEAM OF THE WEEK