ISTANBUL — If 2016 is anything like the year that just passed, we are in for real trouble.

Beneath the world’s radar, a serious insurgency has been simmering in Turkey’s Kurdish regions for months. Urban clashes, with three or four casualties each time, are a daily occurrence. Youth groups affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) are controlling parts of major Kurdish cities, fighting government forces for greater autonomy. And the Turkish government is responding with a harsh military crackdown that not only targets the militia but ends up affecting civilians.

Things are looking far from stable in the most stable country in the region.

But somehow, the fact that NATO’s second-largest army is fully mobilized on the Syrian border in a war against 16-year-old kids with AK-47s who have carved out “liberated zones” in their neighborhoods is getting almost no coverage in international media. European institutions — happy that they secured a money-for-refugees deal with Ankara last November — are mum, and Washington is unwilling to rock the boat in its complicated relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The Turkish government has, of course, been fighting the PKK for decades; and the tranquility over the past few years was a result of the peace negotiations between the two sides, which abruptly ended this summer. Each side blames the other for ending the ceasefire, but the truth is that neither is much in control of the catastrophe we are witnessing now.

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Even for a decades-long war, this is a whole new level of escalation. Let me explain. Much of what took place in the 1990s was in the countryside, between Kurdish guerrillas and army units. This time, it is urban, just as deadly, and far more explosive.

To be clear: We are not talking about a skirmish here or there; this is a conflict about tanks, artillery, snipers and heavy fire in densely populated areas. Last month, the Ministry of Education sent text messages telling over 3,000 public school teachers doing mandatory service in restless Kurdish towns to leave. Schools are shut down and thousands of students have no access to education.

There have been 52 intermittent curfews in seven Kurdish towns where 1.3 million people live, sometimes lasting as long as 14 days.

And then there are the curfews, which last for days. According to Turkey’s Human Rights Foundation, there have been 52 intermittent curfews in seven Kurdish towns where 1.3 million people live, sometimes lasting as long as 14 days. The organization puts the civilian death toll since the summer at 124.

One of Turkey’s leading human rights lawyers, Tahir Elçi, died in November when he was caught in crossfire between police and PKK militias in the meandering streets of Diyarbakir’s old town — moments after he finished a press conference asking for a cessation of hostilities in urban areas.

I feel nervous even admitting this to myself but some of the photographs coming out of the region have an unnerving similarity to early images from Syria in 2011 — with buildings bearing signs of last night’s fighting or smoke rising on the horizon from gray, concrete-colored towns.

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That all this is happening in a NATO country that just hosted a G20 meeting is remarkable.

So is the mainstream Turkish media’s reticence about the events. You will not read much in Turkish papers. Since winning an impressive majority on November 1, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been further tightening the screws on whatever is left of the country’s free media, blocking opposition networks from broadcasting cable news, threatening mainstream media with court cases, investigations, and so on.

Senior Turkish editors and media executives tell me that they are in constant fear of being accused by the government of sounding sympathetic to the PKK. The coverage is skewed toward Turkish nationalism and the valiant efforts of the security forces, with almost no mention of civilian casualties — which included a three-month-old baby and a five-year-old last week.

There is no human face to the conflict for anyone reading the papers. No one bothers interviewing residents caught between security forces and the PKK. On top of that, the funerals of slain soldiers are also not supposed to be played up for fear it would incite anti-government sentiment. It is one of the darkest periods for Turkish journalism.

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The background to what is happening in the Kurdish regions is an overall rise in authoritarianism touching every aspect of Turkey’s civic life. The Islamist AKP was once the poster child of Muslim democracy and a hope for reform even for secular democrats like myself.

In the first few years of AKP reign, a decade ago, Turkey advanced toward European Union membership, took important steps to recognize Kurdish identity in the public sphere and carried out impressive democratization. All that stopped when Erdoğan hoarded enough power that he didn’t need to compromise with secularists, intellectuals, the media, the business elite, or the military. He turned into a Sunni version of his current nemesis, Vladimir Putin, altering the constitutional system to accommodate his personality cult in an atmosphere of nationalism and religiosity.

Whatever happens in Turkish democracy, the country’s 'real-estate value' is enough for the world to turn a blind eye to its domestic struggles.

Ironically, rising tides of illiberalism coincide with a second honeymoon in Turkey’s relations with the West. These days, stability trumps democracy in international relations and Erdoğan’s promise of “stability” is seen as an asset by Turkey’s Western allies. Panicked about the refugee crisis, Europeans have now agreed to “re-energize” relations with Ankara.

There has been a similar thaw in relations with Washington since Turkey agreed to take a more active part in the fight against ISIL and open its bases to coalition planes. Whatever happens in Turkish democracy, the country’s “real-estate value” is enough for the world to turn a blind eye to its domestic struggles. Just as in the Cold War.

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Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu is promising to “root out [terrorists] house to house and street to street,” but that doesn’t seem doable unless entire population centers are forced to migrate. Turkey’s Kurdish issue cannot be solved through military means alone and Ankara’s friends around the world would do well to urge a return to the negotiating table, rather than watch Turkey follow its neighbors’ path to ethnic and sectarian warfare.

This is not a “winnable” war for either side and there is no denying that the PKK has some level of support in Turkey’s Kurdish areas. In most neighborhoods where curfews are imposed, the pro-Kurdish party HDP scored over 90 percent in elections.

Across the border in Syria, a PKK-backed party has established an autonomous zone and is experimenting with self-rule. Both in Iraq and Syria, PKK-linked groups (made up of Kurdish volunteers from Turkey) are fighting ISIL alongside coalition forces. In many ways, this is the coming of age for Kurds, and Turkey needs to adjust to that reality.

Kurds are not a threat — they are a prelude to building our democracy.

To be fair, both sides are to blame for the current flare-up in the conflict and no government would allow an armed militia to control parts of its cities. This is what the PKK is trying to do through its belated “Arab Spring” in Kurdish towns. The PKK needs to understand that its “revolutionary” armed struggle is an outdated concept — and will only bring destruction to Kurds and Turks.

Turkey is getting more authoritarian, the world is indifferent and it is the Kurds who are dying: Something is wrong with this calculus. Armed struggle is negating the advances of legitimate Kurdish players like the HDP. This cannot be good for Kurds.

Ankara has to return to democracy, update its administrative structures, and re-invent itself as a Turkish-Kurdish nation. Administrative reform that allows more power to local governments — not just in Kurdish areas, but across Turkey — may not be such a bad idea after all. But more importantly, it needs to re-establish the state’s troubled relationship with “the Kurd.”

Kurds are not a threat — they are a prelude to building our democracy. Turkey’s future and its borders are best secured through a lasting Kurdish peace. Turks and Kurds, we are too intertwined — economically, demographically, culturally — to chart out an independent course.

In sickness and health, we are destined to live side by side.

Asli Aydintasbas is a journalist based in Istanbul.