An early look at how the Rangers may handle the expansion draft

Update: It was brought to our attention that the wording of the Sportsnet article is confusing, and that the limited NTC business discussed was in relation to NMCs that don’t have full no-trade protection, like Fleury and David Clarkson. Regular NTCs may not have to be protected, which certainly helps the Rangers immensely. This should be confirmed next week.

The latest news from Sportsnet on a potential expansion draft to stock the new Las Vegas franchise next summer revealed some important details on how teams can build their “protected” lists. Here’s a summary of the key criteria:

Each team must expose at least two forwards and one defenseman that played at least 40 games during the 2016-2017 season, or 70 total games over the previous two years.

All teams may protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie.

Players with no-movement and no-trade clauses that extend through the 2017-2018 season will count against the protection limit, but those with clauses that expire at the end of next season may be exposed. Teams may also seek agreements with individual players to waive existing clauses.

Players with two years of pro experience or less are exempt from the process.

Each team can lose a maximum of one player to expansion.

Obviously there’s a ton of player movement expected from the Rangers in the coming weeks, but with the above information in mind, let’s take an early look at how the Blueshirts might be impacted by the expansion draft.

Though Pavel Buchnevich will be exempt from the process with just one year of pro experience under his belt, the Rangers could have nine other forwards eligible for selection: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan, Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello, Jesper Fast, Oscar Lindberg, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes.

To narrow that down to seven keepers will be difficult.

Nash would only have one year remaining on his contract and will turn 33 years old at the time of the draft, so he jumps off the page as a logical first cut.

However, Nash does have a modified no-trade clause, so unless he agrees to waive it, he’s an automatic inclusion in the protected list. That gives the Blueshirts even more incentive to deal Nash this summer rather than risk losing him for nothing next offseason if he agrees to waive his NTC, or force New York to expose another key youngster if Nash doesn’t cooperate.

Assuming Nash is either traded beforehand or willing to spend the final year of his contract in Sin City, the second forward to expose is a much trickier decision.

Stepan would have four years left on his deal and still be just 27 years old, so he seems like the easiest decision to protect.

Brassard (who also has a modified no-trade) and Zuccarello are the elder statesmen and would each be 30 years old heading into the 2017-2018 season, but both will have two years remaining on their bargain contracts. Unless all of the team’s youngsters take quantum leaps forward next season, it’s hard to see the Blueshirts being eager to part with either player as of now.

Of the remaining youngsters, Miller and Kreider seem most likely to be part of New York’s future plans, so the decision might come down to Fast, Lindberg and Hayes. Hayes has the highest ceiling of the group, but his performance next year will probably dictate his standing. With Lindberg recovering from dual hip surgery, he may be the early odd-man out.

On defense, Brady Skjei will join Buchnevich in being exempt from the process as he’ll have just completed his second pro season.

That leaves New York with Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Dylan McIlrath, and potentially, Keith Yandle. All of Staal, Girardi and McDonagh will have some level of no-trade or no-movement clauses intact at the time of the draft, so unless the Blueshirts can convince Staal or Girardi to waive (or move one this summer), then that would be their full list of protected D-men right there.

The biggest conundrum on the blueline is regarding Yandle. Even if New York is able to re-sign him, the Blueshirts might be forced to leave Yandle there for the taking due to all the aforementioned restrictions on the other blueliners.

This is the tangled web of scenarios and contingencies that members of the Rangers’ front office must keep top of mind as they begin assembling a roster for next season and beyond.

Certainly the idea of trading a veteran like Nash or Stepan as has been recently rumored is made much more complicated if the Rangers now must attempt to both shave salary and obtain players to help retool the roster without further cluttering the long list of players they must make tough decisions on leading into the draft.

The good news is that 29 other teams have their own issues, so this might be the wildest offseason and eventual trade deadline that we’ve ever seen.

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