Despite being without national trade policy for four decades, we can predict a lot about the UK’s future trade deals outside of the EU from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and what we know gives great cause for concern.

If and when Brexit is completed, TTIP will not directly apply to a UK outside the single market. But with the US knocking on the door to create a trade deal with the UK we know its interests are the same as expressed in TTIP. All the warning signs from TTIP suggest that under the current government vested interests will be satisfied ahead of the wider public interest.

What is TTIP?

Long gone are the days when trade focused on simply removing tariffs for goods. Since the 1980s, trade has increasingly focused on removing social, health and environmental regulations (‘non-tariff barriers’ in trade language), opening up public service markets and advancing the 'rights' of corporations. In this way, trade agreements expand and guarantee the reach of markets and corporations into every sector of the economy and every corner of the globe. TTIP fits squarely into this framework.

The most controversial elements of TTIP are the ISDS ‘corporate courts’ to guarantee ‘investor rights'. Put simply, ISDS permits big business to sue governments in a one way private justice system for policies that affect profits. It functions as taxpayer funded risk insurance for corporations. And corporations are using the power at an unprecedented rate, often through British law firms.

In 2013, the UK government commissioned the LSE to study the impact ISDS would have on the UK. It kept the findings quiet: costs, but no benefits, and a likelihood of being sued more times than Canada – the most sued country in the Northern hemisphere. But for trade minister Liam Fox, the ideological cart is firmly in front of the empirical horse: “There have been claims that investors could sue a government for losses and win if a government takes a decision in the wider public interest…However, this could not happen.”

The 6 reasons why we should be scared of TTIP Show all 6 1 /6 The 6 reasons why we should be scared of TTIP The 6 reasons why we should be scared of TTIP The NHS Public services, especially the NHS, are in the firing line. One of the main aims of TTIP is to open up Europe’s public health, education and water services to US companies. This could essentially mean the privatisation of the NHS. The European Commission has claimed that public services will be kept out of TTIP. However, according to the Huffington Post, the UK Trade Minister Lord Livingston has admitted that talks about the NHS were still on the table Getty The 6 reasons why we should be scared of TTIP Food and environmental safety TTIP’s ‘regulatory convergence’ agenda will seek to bring EU standards on food safety and the environment closer to those of the US. But US regulations are much less strict, with 70 per cent of all processed foods sold in US supermarkets now containing genetically modified ingredients. By contrast, the EU allows virtually no GM foods. The US also has far laxer restrictions on the use of pesticides. It also uses growth hormones in its beef which are restricted in Europe due to links to cancer. US farmers have tried to have these restrictions lifted repeatedly in the past through the World Trade Organisation and it is likely that they will use TTIP to do so again Getty The 6 reasons why we should be scared of TTIP Banking regulations TTIP cuts both ways. The UK, under the influence of the all-powerful City of London, is thought to be seeking a loosening of US banking regulations. America’s financial rules are tougher than ours. They were put into place after the financial crisis to directly curb the powers of bankers and avoid a similar crisis happening again. TTIP, it is feared, will remove those restrictions, effectively handing all those powers back to the bankers Getty/Bloomberg The 6 reasons why we should be scared of TTIP Privacy Remember ACTA (the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement)? It was thrown out by a massive majority in the European Parliament in 2012 after a huge public backlash against what was rightly seen as an attack on individual privacy where internet service providers would be required to monitor people’s online activity. Well, it’s feared that TTIP could be bringing back ACTA’s central elements, proving that if the democratic approach doesn’t work, there’s always the back door. An easing of data privacy laws and a restriction of public access to pharmaceutical companies’ clinical trials are also thought to be on the cards AFP/Getty Images The 6 reasons why we should be scared of TTIP Jobs The EU has admitted that TTIP will probably cause unemployment as jobs switch to the US, where labour standards and trade union rights are lower. It has even advised EU members to draw on European support funds to compensate for the expected unemployment. Examples from other similar bi-lateral trade agreements around the world support the case for job losses. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the US, Canada and Mexico caused the loss of one million US jobs over 12 years, instead of the hundreds of thousands of extra that were promised Dave Thompson/Getty Images The 6 reasons why we should be scared of TTIP Democracy TTIP’s biggest threat to society is its inherent assault on democracy. One of the main aims of TTIP is the introduction of Investor-State Dispute Settlements (ISDS), which allow companies to sue governments if those governments’ policies cause a loss of profits. In effect it means unelected transnational corporations can dictate the policies of democratically elected governments AFP/Getty

In addition to guaranteeing the rights of big business, Britain pushed for the inclusion of financial deregulation in TTIP. By unpicking financial regulations, whether around banks, hedge funds or ratings agencies, TTIP threatens to recreate the conditions which precipitated the economic crash of 2008 – and the subsequent wave of ‘austerity’ and privatisation which dispossessed the poorest in the UK. There is already pressure to use Brexit to remove financial regulations; new trade negotiations will provide another opportunity for the UK financial services sector to ensure this happens both at home and overseas.

There is no evidence that these measures will increase the UK’s GDP. Last year, German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel slammed TTIP’s supposed 0.5 per cent GDP boost by 2017 as “wondrous calculations” drawn from “voodoo economics”. But this didn’t stop new trade minister Liam Fox from latching the figure onto the ‘magic’ of trickle-down economics: “[TTIP gives] the opportunity to add £10 billion to our economy every year, which is almost £400 per household.”

Despite the huge ramifications trade deals have across society, the UK government sought to keep TTIP secret – it actively prevented British MPs from reading the deal’s key texts in so-called ‘reading rooms’ when it could have granted access.

Worse still, despite a furore around the government’s decision to include the NHS in TTIP and in the face of high-level legal advice highlighting the threat it faced, the government refused a freedom of information request to release its legal advice.

As under TTIP, we must be relentless in our call for a democratic and transparent trade policy that is in the interests of all of us – and not just big business.