We’ve heard many times this offseason, from both media and fans, that the Colts overpaid for Frank Gore. The argument is that Gore’s production will decline substantially as he ages, and his cap numbers of $4.5MM, $4.0MM and $3.5MM in 2014, 2015 and 2016 cost more than he will produce. Ignoring the fact that the Colts are guaranteed to save money if they need to cut Gore (as of June 1st), there is a fundamental flaw in this logic. Gore’s production will definitely decline from 2014. The team is counting on it. In fact, if there is no decline, it will mean big problems for the Colts offense.

What Happened In San Francisco?

Last season, Gore carried the football 255 times for 1,106 yards, at 4.3 ypc. The 49ers rushed on 470 plays (almost exactly half the time), so Gore had the ball on 54% of the team’s runs. However, 104 of those runs were by Kaepernick; therefore, Frank Gore accounted for a whopping 70% of carries by RBs for the 49ers. This is an absurd number of carries for a 10 year veteran. Carlos Hyde, the team’s next most-used RB, had 172 fewer carries than Gore (83 total). After Hyde, no 49er had more than 10 carries or 30 yards.

For the Colts, Trent Richardson led the team in carries last season with 159 (13 less than the difference between Gore and Hyde). Ahmad Bradshaw followed with 90, and Boom Herron ran 78. Herron didn’t see significant action until Bradshaw’s injury, so it makes some sense to combine their carries- giving us 168 for the duo.

Gore ran the ball almost 100 times more in SF than Richardson or Bradshaw+Boom did in Indy. So it seems safe to say that regardless of how well Gore plays, his workload (and therefore production) will drop substantially from last season. After all, Frank Gore ran the ball on over 20% of total 49ers plays, more than double what Richardson (8.5%) accounted for in 2014. There is no chance he runs that often again in 2014.

In fact, Gore’s workload over the last 10 season is staggering to a Colts fan. Aside from his rookie year (2005), Gore has always carried the ball at least 250 times when playing 16 games. You have to go back to 2007 to find a Colts RB with 250+ carries in a season (Addai), and since 2007, only two Colts backs have reached even 200 carries (Addai in 2009 and Ballard in 2012), according to Pro Football Reference. Gore rushing 250 times this season is an outlandish prediction. It simply isn’t in the team’s game plan. So what is a reasonable projection?

Crystal Ballin’

Pagano has reiterated that his offense is searching for balance between rushing and passing. Obviously an offense led by a great QB will favor throwing, but in 2014 the Colts attempted 616 passes and only 361 RB carries, or about 250 more passes than runs. This is hardly the picture of a balanced offense. A closer model for the balance Pagano wants would probably be the 2014 Packers. Directed by the league’s top QB and an excellent young RB, the Packers attempted 520 passes and 392 RB carries, or about 130 more passes than runs. So the Colts will need to give the ball to the RBs a lot more.

How those extra carries are split up is really the big question. The Colts have used a RB committee since long before Pagano took over in 2012, and that won’t change in 2015. So Herron, Ballard (pending recovery), and rookie Josh Robinson will definitely see the field.

As mentioned above, Richardson carried the ball 159 times in 2014. Granted, his attempts dropped off over the last quarter of the season, but Trent was a little over 11 carries per game through week 12 of 2014. As the more talented - yet aging - running back, expecting Frank Gore to run slightly more often seems reasonable. At 200 carries, Gore would average 12.5 carries/game, by far the lowest of his career (aside from 2005). If he can maintain 4.0 ypc (a measurable decline from his 2014 figure), that’s 800 yards (also the lowest of his career).

In this case, Herron would probably run about 160 times, fewer than what he was on pace for over the 6 games following Bradshaw’s injury. If he can keep his average above 4.0 ypc (down from 4.5), that’s another 640 yards.

Now, Boom had 22 carries for about 75 yards before Bradshaw’s injury, so there is still room for Robinson/Ballard/Tipton to get touches. If the Colts plan on using Gore sparingly while maintaining a balanced offense, these players will need to average about 5-7 carries a game at 3.3 to 4.0 ypc between them. At that rate, they’d add another 80-120 carries and 300-400 yards. Using these modest projections, Colts RBs could reasonably reach between 1800-1900 yards on 460 carries this season, a vast improvement over 2014’s paltry 1,300 yards.

Wrap It Up Already!

Final Projected RB Carries and Yards:

Frank Gore: 200 carries (22% lower than 2014), 800 yards (28% lower than 2014)

YPC- 4.0 (down from 4.3 in 2014)

Boom Herron: 160 carries (10 more than 2014 pace), 640 yards (fewer than 2014 pace)

YPC- 4.0 (down from 4.5 in 2014)

Robinson/Ballard/Tipton(?): 100 carries (~6/game), 360 yards (modest projection)

YPC- 3.6 (low projection)

RB Totals: 460 carries for 1,800 yards at 3.9 ypc.

2014 RB Total: 337 carries for 1,314

Assuming Luck throws at least 100 fewer passes in 2015 (plays given to RBs instead) and Luck scrambles about 60 times again (broken pass plays), the Colts would run roughly 575 passes to 460 rushes. That’s 115 more passes than runs (very similar to GB), and almost the exact same number of total plays run by the team in 2014. All realistic numbers based on modest projections.

So, was Frank Gore’s price worth the cost? To many teams, it wouldn’t be. But for the Colts, Gore could be what gets them to the Super Bowl. In fact, Frank Gore could have the worst season of his career and it’d be the best year by a Colts RB since 2007. As long as these RBs stay healthy and either Robinson, Ballard, or Tipton contribute a little, the Colts offense will find the balance it searches for every season while keeping Gore fresh for the playoffs. Frank Gore probably won’t reach 1,000 yards, but he is still worth more to the Colts than his price.

*All stats taken from ESPN and Over the Cap unless otherwise specified.