“If you vote for Tony Abbott and his myopic beliefs,” it said at one point, “you also follow a misogynist into a dark cave made of coal.” Tough words, but what should perhaps be most chilling to Abbott and the Liberal Party is not the comments themselves, but who they came from and how far and fast they spread. The post was written by the Mosman dentist David Eyles, who last popped up in the news when his Queenscliff home broke local records after it sold for over $12 million. In other words, he is not your typical anti-Liberal firebrand. He signed off his post, “The Eyles family, Queenscliff,” and attached a photo of himself, his wife and his grown children, each of them wearing anti-Abbott T-shirts. The posts have gone viral.

Mark Kelly, who set up the Vote Tony Out pages, says the post is typical of the sort of thing he sees popping up each day across the platforms he runs. Kelly, who lives in Manly and owns Global Surf Strategies, says he does not support either major party, but began the campaign when he noticed how many of his friends were determined to see Abbott removed from office. “The idea with the T-shirts is that it tells people you are part of a tribe and the tribe wants to see Abbott gone. You see them all over Manly now.” Kelly says he has a backlog of similar personal stories about why people have turned on Abbott that he will post over the coming months. Almost all of them are from people who have voted across the political spectrum. “Next year we are going to have a BBQ, now we are just getting the meat out of the freezer,” he says. In the 2016 election there was a swing against Abbott but he still retained the seat with 61.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, according to the Australian Electoral Commission. He’s in for a tougher fight this time.

Across Warringah, which stretches from Mosman over the Spit Bridge to Manly and the northern beaches, newly convened or existing community groups are agitating against Abbott. They include Think Twice Warringah, Voices of Warringah, People of Warringah, and North Shore Environmental Stewards. Voters and activists that spoke with The Sun-Herald say that Abbott views they once accepted grudgingly are now beyond the pale. Some say the world has moved on while Abbott has remained in defiant stasis. There was a protest vote against Abbott at the preselection meeting a few months ago, with almost one in three branch members refusing to endorse him despite the lack of an alternative candidate. That’s according to the Liberal Party’s official count released a few days later, but some members there on the night believe it was much narrower. Next year we are going to have a BBQ, now we are just getting the meat out of the freezer. Mark Kelly, Vote Tony Out The progressive campaigning group Get Up is throwing its resources into the seat, appointing a dedicated Warringah campaigner who has already deployed volunteer door-knockers. According to GetUp’s campaigns director, Django Merope-Synge, about 700 people turned up to the group’s first public meeting in the electorate. Organisers had been hoping for 100.

Dean Harris, Labor’s candidate for the seat, says he is being warmly welcomed to community events by voters who describe themselves as Liberals who are considering voting Labor for the first time. Harris joined the Labor Party five years ago in response to Abbott’s prime ministership. He is not a typical Labor candidate - he runs a data and analytics firm rather than a union shop - but he says his sense of fairness and equality lines up with Labor values. Either way, many of the staunchest members of what might be called a broad anti-Abbott movement in Warringah told The Sun-Herald this week they considered a vote for Labor a step too far. Rather they are hoping for - or actively searching for - a strong centrist independent in the vein of Kerryn Phelps, who recently took Wentworth out of Liberal hands for the first time in the eastern suburbs electorate’s history. Dr Kerryn Phelps was able to win over traditional Liberal voters in Wentworth by espousing small-l liberal values. Credit:Dominic Lorrimer

Former advertising executive and media commentator Jane Caro is considering running against Abbott as an independent but while she has a support base, there is a general feeling in the community that voters would prefer a less left-wing candidate. One group of local business identities have reportedly convened what they call “the Mosman Group” and raised $750,000 to find such a candidate and fund their campaign. Members of the Mosman Group declined to speak with The Sun-Herald, but their activities have not gone unnoticed by Abbott. In a recent issue of the Mosman Daily, Abbott referred to “left-wing millionaires” who were preparing to back a “Labor-in-disguise independent candidate”. Speaking with The Sun-Herald this week, Abbott remained adamant that Labor intends to “run dead” in the seat and covertly back an independent. This, he argues, is how Phelps won Wentworth.

“The CFMEU have said that is what they are going to do,” he said, apparently referring to a Daily Telegraph report that mentioned that his seat was in the union’s sights. “So it is not a matter of what I think, it is what they are saying.” Loading Abbott said he is taking the threat seriously but is not more concerned about the political landscape than usual. "I have never taken my seat for granted," he said. He noted that in 2001 the independent Peter Macdonald made a strong bid for the seat, eventually cutting Abbott's substantial majority by 10 per cent. Abbott rejected the suggestion he had lost touch with the concerns of his electorate, saying his views on same-sex marriage and climate change had remained unchanged for years. “If they don’t support my views on those issues, they did not in the last election or the one before that or the one before that,” he said.

One prominent banker who lives in Warringah rejected that characterisation of the snowballing opposition to Abbott. He said he was not a member of the Mosman Group but that his views on Abbott were typical among his peer group. He said he had voted for the Liberal Party in all but one election (during the Hawke-Keating years) since he began voting 37 years ago. The people he knows are neither lefty millionaires nor Labor activists under a false flag. “I am disgusted with Tony Abbott,” he said. “He is disruptive, disloyal, destructive and disingenuous. He has antiquated and outdated thoughts on climate change. He has a tin-ear. I think he is completely talentless when it comes to reading the room.” Last election, the banker voted reluctantly for Abbott, next election, he said, he will not. The same-sex marriage vote particularly appalled Louise Hislop who co-founded the group Voices of Warringah. She notes it was Abbott who led conservative Coalition members to oppose a parliamentary conscience vote on gay marriage and forced the government to establish the postal ballot on the issue.

An overwhelming 75 per cent of Warringah voters backed marriage equality in the ballot, but still their local member refused to cast a vote in favour of it. Abbott says he personally remains opposed to same-sex marriage, but understands his electorate supports it and has no intention of changing the law. He describes those who criticise his record on the issue as “sore winners”. I am disgusted with Tony Abbott. He is disruptive, disloyal, destructive and disingenuous. Prominent banker and Warringah voter Similarly while Abbott advocates for abandoning the Paris climate accord, a ReachTEL vote conducted in Warringah in July found 59 per cent of respondents wanted Australia to remain and 48 per cent wanted the emissions target increased. Hislop, a small business owner who lives in North Curl Curl, says she understands that in a representative democracy a member of parliament has a right to vote how he or she sees fit, but she says it is untenable for Abbott to keep the seat while opposing the majority of his constituents on their key concerns.

Hislop says Voices for Warringah was inspired by the grassroots campaign that helped the independent Cathy McGowan win the Victorian seat of Indi from another Liberal conservative warrior, Sophie Mirabella. The group is arranging what it calls “kitchen table conversations” across the electorate to ascertain which issues voters are most concerned about, and will rank each candidate against a score card yet to be drafted. An Instagram image from the Think Twice Warringah page. Hislop says that Labor’s Harris is a “great candidate” and would likely do well on any such scorecard, but agrees that most of the people she has spoken with would support a strong independent over a Labor candidate. And this raises one of the strangest elements of the anti-Abbott insurgency. It is thriving despite the fact it has no leader. Across the peninsula, newly minted political activists are scrolling through their often impressive contact books in search of a candidate with traditional Liberal economic views and progressive social ones.

The author and Sun-Herald writer Peter FitzSimons is one of those who has been approached, including by a high-profile businessman who offered to bankroll his campaign. FitzSimons is not interested, nor is his wife, the Channel 10 identity Lisa Wilkinson, who, FitzSimons says, can’t go to her local shops without having people lobby her to make a run. Lisa Wilkinson is frequently asked to run as an independent for Warringah but has said she is not interested. Credit:Janie Barrett The former banker Gail Kelly is understood to have been approached, though an assistant says she is not interested in a political career. Former surfer Layne Beachley has said the same. The former Wallaby Phil Kearns and the environmentalist and scientist Tim Flannery are also mentioned as possible candidates. According to one local who has been party to discussions, nobody who is seriously considering a bid for the seat is willing to show their cards yet. With up to six months to go until the next election, anonymity is an advantage.