Teams that have beaten Alabama in recent years haven’t necessarily relied on one approach in particular to defeat the Crimson Tide. They’ve actually been successful at any number of items that have resulted in Alabama defeats.

Kyle Allen and A&M's passing game have already have 24 plays over 20 yards this season

However, two statistics have stood out in all of the defeats that have occurred since 2010 and they're consistent over time regardless of the schemes, personnel, or approach that the opposition has taken. Even if Alabama runs the ball well and doesn’t turn it over, those two threads that run through the ten games that the Tide has lost in the past five years….and that’s explosive plays generated by the opposition and the number of Alabama passing attempts.

2010-South Carolina 35, Alabama 21…the Gamecocks were up 21-3 early in the second quarter. South Carolina also held Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson to 64 yards on 17 carries and made Greg McElroy put up 34 passes. However, they also generated a lot of explosive plays to Ashton Jeffrey (five of them over 15 yards). Turnovers were even.

2010-LSU 24 Alabama 21….the Tigers had seven plays of 15 yards or more both rushing and passing. Ingram and Richardson rushed for 125 yards on 27 carries. Greg McElroy had to put up the ball 34 times. Alabama was -2 in turnover margin.

2010-Auburn 28 Alabama 27…Alabama had a 27-7 lead but Richardson and Ingram rushed for just 60 yards on 20 carries as McElroy put up 37 passes. Auburn ran for just 108 yards but Cam Newton hit five passes of over 15 yards. Alabama was -1 in turnovers.

2011-LSU 9, Alabama 6….a tight game throughout. Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy combined for 108 yards on 28 carries. A.J. McCarron had to throw 29 times. Alabama was even in turnover margin but missed four field goals. LSU surprisingly had seven plays of over 13 yards.

2012-A&M 29 Alabama 24…the Aggies jumped out to a 20-0 lead and held off the Tide. Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon combined for 121 yards on 26 carries. Alabama was -3 in turnover margin (A.J. McCarron had to throw 34 times) and the Tide gave up five passes of over 15 yards.

2013-Auburn 28 Alabama 21…Alabama was ahead for most of this game but kicker Cade Foster missed three field goals. T.J. Yeldon and Kenyon Drake had 30 carries for 174 yards and A.J. McCarron had to throw 29 times. Auburn had four explosive plays of over 15 yards and also had the returned missed field goal for the game winning points. Alabama was +1 in turnovers.

2013-Oklahoma 45 Alabama 31…the Tide was down 31-17 at he half and had to put it up 30 times. Derrick Henry and T.J. Yeldon rushed for 172 yards but A.J. McCarron had to put the ball up 30 times due to the early deficit. The Sooners had five passes over 15 yards and were -4 in turnovers.

2014-Ole Miss 23 Alabama 17…the Tide led most of the way in this one. Yeldon and Henry combined for 160 yards on 37 carries (4.3 yards per rush). However, Alabama had to throw it 31 times, Ole Miss had six plays of over 14 yards, and the Tide was -1 in turnover margin.

2014-Ohio State 42, Alabama 35…the Tide got up early and then had to play catch up most of the second half. Henry and Yeldon combined for 142 yards on 23 carries and Blake Sims threw 36 times. The Tide was -1 in turnover margin and gave up seven explosive plays over 13 yards.

2015-Ole Miss 43 Alabama 37….Ole Miss led most of the way due in part to a -5 turnover margin and so the Tide had to throw the ball a whopping 59 times. Alabama’s Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake combined for 34 carries for 160 yards. The Rebels had seven explosive plays over 15 yards.

In every loss, the opponent had at least five explosive plays of 13 yards or better (even LSU’s 9-6 slugfest in 2011). They were either able to catch Alabama in man coverage, protect their passer, and get the ball down the field or they were able to spread them out and run the ball. In addition, Alabama put the ball up in the air at least 29 times in every game. Since they’ve averaged about 25 passes a game since 2010 (generally between 22 and 27 per game depending on how good their rushing attack was in any given year), that doesn’t seem like a big disparity.

However, when you start generating explosive plays on offense, you’re either scoring points or putting yourself in position to do so. You’re more liable to make these types of games a shootout and you’re forcing Alabama to throw the ball more. That means more drop back passes as opposed to play action passes which results in Alabama’s quarterbacks, offensive line, and receivers being taken out of their comfort zone. Quarterbacks and receivers are having to make more reads because they’re not facing man coverage as often. The offensive line has to gear up to pass protect when the defense knows what’s coming and can tee off on the quarterback. For a West Coast offense like Alabama’s that’s trying to incorporate more spread concepts via offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, that’s not an easy burden.

It helps to have Alabama shoot itself in the foot via turnovers and missed field goals as they’ve done on multiple occasions. Early on in our analysis, teams were more likely to able to stop their running game but by 2012 your best defense was probably going to be a big play offense.

Also, Alabama has struggled moreso with spread offenses as time has gone on. This doesn’t mean that those teams necessarily go out and air it out all over the place. Auburn in 2013 and Ohio State last season both ran the ball relatively well. However, teams have used either a H back or tight end for the most part to give the Tide a more run heavy look which entices them to play more man free coverage. In turn, that means that once a runner breaks to the second level there’s sometimes no one there because everyone is in the box. In addition, when you show the Tide such a look, you’re more likely to get man coverage down the field. If you can protect your quarterback and get enough shots down the field, then you get more opportunities to convert big plays. That enables you to score more points and in turn force Alabama to try to keep up with you. Outside of 2013 when the Tide had an accomplished senior quarterback in A.J. McCarron, they’ve had issues the more they’ve thrown the ball.

Overall, this game is probably going to come down to how many explosive plays that Kyle Allen can generate with receivers Christian Kirk and Josh Reynolds. Here’s the interesting part for A&M: the Aggies are averaging about five passing plays a game over 20 yards and a whopping ten pass plays a game over ten yards. Both rank very high in the SEC and Alabama has already allowed 14 passing plays of over 20 yards this season because they play more man coverage. If the Aggies take shots down the field versus the Tide on early downs or short yardage out of more run heavy formations, they’re more likely to find Kirk and Reynolds in advantageous situations. If the Aggies can take risks and a lot of shots down the field, they could well combine that with superior special teams play or turnover margin to down the Tide.