There may not more be a more polarizing quarterback in the NFL than Andrew Luck. He’s either underrated or overrated. He’s either overly scrutinized by the media or coddled by it.

That’s why we get debates like this one…

I happen to fall in the underrated/overly scrutinized camp. In my opinion, Luck was one of the three or four best quarterbacks in the NFL last season.

This isn’t a stat-based assessment, obviously. Luck’s 2016 numbers do not really measure up with the elite passers in the league’s. Luck ranked 16th in completion percentage, 20th in interception percentage and ninth in passer rating. Those aren’t the numbers of a Tier 1 quarterback.

But, as you’ve probably heard ad nauseam from Luck defenders, numbers do not tell the entire story.

Even as one of those Luck supporters, I can see why that argument would fall flat for one of his critics. It’s a cop out. Outside of watching hours of tape (which most fans do not have the time nor the desire to do) there’s no way to confirm whether that’s true or not. Numbers make player evaluation so much more convenient, which is why it’s the method most NFL fans (and analysts) prefer when discussing a player’s value. And if you were going based on the numbers alone, it’s hard to make the argument that Luck is a top-five QB in the NFL. I get that.

Now, I can try to change your mind by showing you multiple examples of Luck doing amazing things to make up for his terrible supporting cast, like climbing the pocket to beat a pass rush while keeping his eyes downfield, somehow finding a receiver across the field and then actually getting him the football…

Andrew Luck, just a middle of the pack quarterback. pic.twitter.com/lAMBUIROMW — Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) May 10, 2017

Or maybe him going through his progressions quickly enough to avoid a pass rush that gets home in about two seconds, while managing to throw a perfect touchdown pass…

1st read taken away, rush gets to him in 2 secs, somehow throws 27yd dime to backside receiver while taking big hit #MiddleOfThePack pic.twitter.com/Nve3tY1E5K — Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) May 10, 2017

Or him avoiding two free rushers by throwing off his backfoot while still managing to hit his target 30 yards away…

But that’s cherry-picking. You could make any player look great by picking out some highlights.

So let’s do this another way. When I assess how a quarterback plays, on the negative snaps I ask myself one question, “What else could he have done on that play?” In my mind, that’s the best way to isolate a QB’s performance from his supporting cast.

That’s exactly what we’re going to with Luck, and we’ll use one of his worst statistical games of the 2016 season: Week 14 vs. Houston. He finished 24-of-45 (53.3%) with 276 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 68.4. But, really, how poorly did Luck play?

In order to answer that question, we’ll look at all of his incompletions and interceptions (he had two on this day) and ask if it was Luck’s fault or the fault of his supporting cast. Let’s get started…

Incompletion #1

Was it Luck’s fault? No. We’re putting this one on RT Joe Reitz, who allows Whitney Mercilus to beat him off the line and bat down Luck’s pass, which was targeted at an open T.Y. Hilton.

Incompletion #2

Was it Luck’s fault? Yes and no. Luck’s pass was off the mark, but he didn’t really have a window to throw the pass. Had he placed it on the receiver, it’s probably an interception. It was the correct read, too. The play Indy called is designed to attack Houston’s Quarters defense with a double post concept, but the Texans secondary plays it perfectly.

Incompletion #3

Was it Luck’s fault? No. He had no open receivers anywhere on the field, and the pass rush gets to him rather quickly. Still, Luck is able to give his receiver a chance to catch the football with a perfectly placed pass.



Incompletion #4

Was it Luck’s fault? Obviously not. Dwayne Allen falls down as Luck is in the middle of his throwing motion. The ball is intercepted easily.



Incompletion #5

Was it Luck’s fault? This one’s a little difficult. Luck had an open receiver at the top of the screen, but the pass rush was bearing down from that side of the field, so it’s understandable why he didn’t look that way. And he does put the ball right on Donte Moncrief, but the receiver failed to create separation.



Incompletion #6

Was it Luck’s fault? Nope. This one’s on Allen. He shuffles over a few feet while Luck is throwing, the ball still hits him in the hands and he drops it.



Incompletion #7

Was it Luck’s fault? Not at all. Luck puts in a super human effort to keep this play alive after his line is beat right off the snap. He dumps it off to Robert Turbin, who tries, and fails, to catch it with one hand.



Incompletion #8

Was it Luck’s fault? Nope. The line gives up quick pressure and Luck does a good job of fighting off a sack and getting rid of the ball.



Incompletion #9

Was it Luck’s fault? This was a drop, but I’m putting this one squarely on Luck. He had two receivers wide open and elected to throw it to a covered checkdown.



Incompletion #10

Was it Luck’s fault? Not really. The Texans have this play covered fairly well, and Luck gives Hilton a shot at a big play. And this really shows why Hilton isn’t an ideal No. 1 target. Sure he has speed, but he’s not going to win 50/50 balls downfield. A legit No. 1 receiver makes that play most of the time. Luck has never played with a guy like that.



Incompletion #11

Was it Luck’s fault? Yes. Based on the coverage, this play should not have worked, which is probably why Luck hesitates. But it did, and Luck failed to react accordingly. He had two receivers open at the top of the screen but hesitated and held the ball far too long.



Incompletion #12

Was it Luck’s fault? No. This is just a great play by the Texans defender. He reads the play perfectly and is able to break up the pass. There wasn’t a whole lot Luck could have done differently. He doesn’t really stare down the receiver and tries to place the ball away from the on-coming defender, but he may have been better served throwing the ball away, as there were no other receivers open.



Incompletion #13

Was it Luck’s fault? No. This was a great play by the Colts quarterback. He avoids the pass rush with smooth movement in the pocket and throws an accurate pass. For some reason, Phillip Dorsett eases up, which makes the catch a lot more difficult than it had to be.



Incompletion #14

Was it Luck’s fault? Yes. Good read, but an inaccurate pass.



Incompletion #15

Was it Luck’s fault? Nope. No Colts receiver manages to separate from his defender, so Luck gives Moncrief a chance to make a contested catch and he can’t haul it in. And from the end zone view, we see Luck has to make the throw off-balance because Reitz is getting bull rushed into his lap.



Incompletion #16

Was it Luck’s fault? Yes. 100%. It’s a bad decision all-around. He has Hilton open on the drag route but forces it into coverage anticipating that the waiting linebacker would run with the inside receiver. It didn’t happen and Luck was lucky to avoid an interception.



Incompletion #17

Was it Luck’s fault? Nope. That’s a drop. Dorsett has to make that catch.



Incompletion #18

Was it Luck’s fault? Yes. It was a great play by Brian Cushing, but Luck could have done a better job of using his eyes to keep the Texans linebacker out of the passing window. Are we nit-picking? Yes, but that’s the standard Luck has set.



Incompletion #19

Was it Luck’s fault? The failure of the play was not on Luck, but the interception was. He just tried to do too much. None of his receivers got open. Just throw the ball away.



Incompletion #20

Was it Luck’s fault? Yes. He takes a little too long to read this play, which allows the rush to get home.



Incompletion #21

Was it Luck’s fault? No. Luck put this incompletion on himself after the game, but you can see from the end zone view why he threw it inside of his receiver. Turbin starts to head upfield as Lucks starts to throw and then Turbin just stops.



***

In total, we’ll put eight of the 21 incompletions on Luck, and we’re including all of the plays that were only partially on him. We had two uncatachable passes, which is excellent considering that he threw 45 passes in this game. We had two bad reads and two bad decisions. The other incompletion was a failure to move a linebacker out the throwing lane with his eyes.

You can’t realistically expect more out of your quarterback. Even Tom Brady misses a few reads here and there and throws an inaccurate pass or two during his best games. But Luck was actually criticized for this performance.

Even if we take out all of the negative plays we put on Luck (leaving only the plays where he did everything right) his statline still isn’t great:

24-of-37, 276 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and a passer rating of 93.4.

The league average passer rating in 2016 was 87.6. Eleven quarterbacks finished the season with a passer rating higher than 93.4. That means if Luck had played a FLAWLESS game, it still would have been only a slightly above average statistical performance. That’s how bad his supporting cast is. And that’s why we can’t evaluate Luck — or any QB for that matter — based solely on statistics.

My question — and the question all of the people who say Luck is overrated and overhyped have to ask themselves — is, “What more can he do?”