With Manchester United on the hunt for a centre-back who could do for them what Virgil van Dijk has done for Liverpool, it is no wonder they are sniffing around Leicester City. After all, if Van Dijk’s solidity is encapsulated in that oft-repeated statistic about no player managing to dribble past him last season, then it makes sense for United to pursue the defender who was just below the Dutchman in that ranking, the next best. Taking due care to eliminate daft outliers by restricting analysis to central defenders who played at least 1,500 minutes in last season’s Premier League, Ole Gunnar Solskjær is no doubt aware that at the heart of Leicester’s rearguard there was a colossus who was beaten once by a dribble in the entire campaign. So the only question is: are United willing to go as high as £90m for Wes Morgan?

Ah, statistics! They are to judgment what Twitter is to conversation. The things to note here about Morgan – before we get on to Harry Maguire, on whom United really are hot – is that, at the age of 35, he is not as agile as he was, so last season he could not always get himself into positions where opponents needed to dribble past him; nonetheless, he remains savvy and very big, so when forwards did try to get around him they found it tough. Maguire (beaten six times in dribbles last season, if you must know, the same number as Chris Smalling) is also very big and has a slew of other valuable assets. But how savvy is he? And, even more importantly given United’s apparent transfer strategy, how savvy is Solskjær?

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Considering Maguire’s qualities tells us at least one encouraging thing about Solskjær: he wants a centre‑back who can defend; he, like most managers, is over the fad for centre-backs who fancy themselves as fantasistas, your John Stones and your Mats Hummels. Not that Maguire cannot play out from the back – he certainly can, far better than any of United’s defenders. Maguire has a dinky array of passing and, when he marauds forward with the ball at his feet, he eats up ground and has defenders fearing he might just devour them, too.

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Firstly, however, he is an excellent stopper: imperious in the air, tenacious in the tackle, built like a Portaloo and even more mobile. He is also of sound character, which would be important in an Old Trafford dressing room in need of a good flush.

Recruiting solid characters seems to be a key concern for Solskjær. Daniel James and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are young and hungry while Maguire, at 26, has proved his drive by playing his way up from the lower leagues to become an England regular admired by top clubs. But Maguire is not yet the worldly-wise centre-back that United would need him to be. It is admirable that he has risen to nearly every challenge that he has faced; but he has not risen to all of them and has not yet faced one as big as playing for a club with the demands of United.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Aaron Wan Bissaka has joined from Crystal Palace for big money. Photograph: Nick Potts/PA

Last season Maguire fell a little short of what was required. His challenge after a brilliant first campaign for Leicester and a superb World Cup for England was to go again, to maintain that exceptional standard. Like nearly all England players, he did not succeed. Maybe it was down to a post-euphoria sag, fatigue or just trying to do too much but Maguire, while still very good very often, committed uncharacteristic mistakes last season, mislaying passes, such as the one to Sergio Agüero at the Etihad minutes after a sensational 60-yard romp forward, or making rash decisions such as the one that got him sent off after four minutes at Burnley. Fittingly that all coalesced into a ridiculous performance in his most recent England game, against the Netherlands in June, when, as it happened, Stones and another United target, Matthijs de Ligt, made blunders leading to goals, slightly taking the focus off Maguire’s sloppiness.

Whoever comes in as the linchpin of United’s defence needs to adapt fast if they are to spread calm the way Van Dijk did at Liverpool, rather than get caught up in the panic that engulfed their defence last season to such an extent that even David de Gea got frazzled. United’s new right-back, Wan-Bissaka, is better than most players his age and could prove a bargain at £45m but Crystal Palace fans can point to basic mistakes he made last season and he, too, had a bad summer with England, scoring an own goal at the Under-21 European Championship before being dropped by Aidy Boothroyd, who said the player had been distracted by the imminent move to United.

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This is where Solskjær has to show his worth. Signing talented, conscientious players with plenty to prove is a fine strategy so long as those players are sure to be given the guidance they still need. If Maguire and Wan-Bissaka were signed by Liverpool or Manchester City, then they could be confident that Jürgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola would help them to fulfil their potential within a smartly run collective. When Mauricio Pochettino promised Tanguy Ndombele this summer that he would turn him into a world-class player if he left Lyon for Tottenham, the player had good reason to believe him. Whatever about trophies, Pochettino’s coaching record gives him credibility. The evidence of Solskjær’s coaching skills is decidedly skimpy in comparison.

United are banking on players with varying amounts of potential being cultivated quickly by a manager of uncertain potential at a club where other key figures are unconvincing or, in the case of the director of football, unknown.

Which brings us back to the question of paying £90m for a defender from Leicester. United have to factor in the value of weakening rivals for a top-six finish.