Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

Background: Fun Fact Part I: The University of Florida had eight players drafted in the 2016 draft – Puk, Dane Dunning, fellow A’s prospect Logan Shore, Buddy Reed, Peter Alonso, Shaun Anderson, Scott Moss, and Kirby Snead. Fun Fact Part II: Since 1984, the A’s have taken six Florida Gators in the draft. Fun Fact Part III: Three of the aforementioned six came between the 2015 and 2016 draft (Puk, Shore, and 2015 first rounder Richie Martin). As for Puk, well, the Tigers took a late-round flier on the 6-foot-7, 220-pound southpaw coming out of high school. But the lanky lefty opted to head to the land of sunshine and gators – which immediately started paying off huge dividends for play and school alike.

As a true freshman, the Iowa-born hurler made 19 appearances, seven coming via the start, throwing 40.1 innings while fanning 44 versus 18 free passes. Puk followed that up with one of the better collegiate pitching performances in the nation in 2015: he posted an impressive 104-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 78.0 innings of work en route to tallying a 3.84 ERA. And he more or less continued along the same plane during his junior campaign. In a career high 16 starts (with one relief appearance), he fanned 101 and walked 37 to go along with a 3.05 ERA.

Oakland grabbed him in the opening round, sixth overall, in 2016. And just two years later he’s knocking – rather loudly – on the big league club’s door.

Puk dominated the New York-Penn League during his debut, averaging more than 11 strikeouts and just 3.31 walks per nine innings. So the front office bounced him all the way to High Class A for the start of last season. And he passed with flying colors. In 14 appearances, 11 of which were starts, the behemoth southpaw posted a ridiculous 98-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And that fantastic production continued in a second half promotion to the Texas League: he threw 64.0 innings, fanned 86, and walked 25. Overall, the former first round pick threw a combined 125.0 innings, fanning 184 against just 48 walks. He finished the year with an aggregate 4.03 ERA and a 2.30 FIP.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about him heading into the 2016 draft:

“Fun Fact: Between 2011 and 2015 there have been only seven southpaws who have averaged more than 12 K/9 in [50+] innings, three of which were high round draft picks: Carlos Rodon, Danny Hultzen, and Jacob Lindgren. Puk is on pace to do it a second time in 2016.

So here’s a quote from Richie Martin, Puk’s former teammate and 2015 first round pick, courtesy of Baseball America: “He was throwing 96 to – I think he hit a 99 today.” Needless to say, the fastball velocity is at a premium – and that’s before his handedness is factored in.

Puk’s always missed an above-average amount of bats during his three-year career, fanning nearly 12 hitters every nine innings with the Gators and another nine (in 12 innings) with Team USA. The problem, however, is his lack of control/command – which hasn’t hurt him terribly against inferior competition.

In three years the big lefty has averaged no fewer than 4.0 walks every nine innings and his walk rate actually took a large step backward in 2016 (4.47 BB/9). Puk’s also been a bit homer-prone as he’s coughed up 18 dingers in just 169 career innings – or about 0.96 HR/9. And, finally, another concern: the data’s rather limited as he’s thrown no more than 78.0 innings at any point in a season.

The quick – and wrong – comparison would be to tie Puk to Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale: both are hard-throwing, lanky lefties. Except that Sale showcased far better control/command. Instead, think of Puk as a similar pitcher to Andrew Miller. Consider the following comparison between two dominant college lefties:

Player IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 Andrew Miller 309.0 2.77 9.47 4.08 0.38 A.J. Puk 169.0 3.46 11.66 4.15 0.96

He has front-of-the-rotation caliber potential, but his control/command will likely force him down a notch or two.”

Absurdly dominant. It cannot be stated enough: a little more than a year after blowing away college hitters, Puk – easily – passed the minors’ toughest challenge, Class A. Consider the following:

Since 2006, no 22-year-old pitcher has fanned more than 33.5% of the hitters he faced in the California League (min. 60 IP). Puk posted a 38.6% strikeout percentage.

Between 2006 and 2015, there have been just 22 different pitchers – of any age – to post a strikeout percentage of at least 30% in the California League (min. 60). Of those 22, thirteen of them made their big league debuts by the end of 2017.

Again, Puk was far more dominant than any member of the group. Now take a look at his work in the Eastern League through a historical lens:

Between 2006 and 2015, there were just two 22-year-old arms to post a 30% K% of better in the Eastern League (min. 60 IP): Clay Buchholz and Tony Sipp – both of whom, of course, have had long, big league careers of varying levels of success.

The below-average control/command hasn’t slowed Puk down at all. And he’s doing a far better job of keeping the ball in the park. He has legitimate front-of-the-rotation, true ace potential.

Ceiling: 5.5- to 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

2. Jesus Luzardo, LHP

Background: Another one of the club’s mid-season deals in 2017. Oakland sent veteran relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Washington Nationals for veteran reliever Blake Treinen and a pair of 2016 draft picks (Sheldon Neuse and Luzardo). The portly lefty looked like a potential early first round selection until his lefty elbow forced him under the knife for all-too-common Tommy John surgery. The Nationals, of course, with a recent history of selecting high ceiling, elbow deficient pitchers early in the draft, snagged the generously listed 6-foot-1, 205-pound lefty in the third round, 94th overall, and tossed $1.4 million his way to sway him from his commitment to the University of Miami. Finally healthy in late June, Luzardo made 12 appearances across the Arizona, Gulf Coast, and New York-Penn Leagues last season, throwing a combined 43.1 innings with 48 strikeouts and just five free passes. He finished the year with an aggregate 1.66 ERA.

Projection: Nonsensically dominant after a long layoff due to a severe injury. Luzardo was practically unhittable during his jaunt through the low levels. And despite the lack of a track record, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in High Class A at some point in 2018. It’ll be a wait-and-see approach, but the early returns are far beyond favorable. One final note: Of Luzardo’s 12 appearances, he walked one or more hitters in just three of those games.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

Background: Barreto may not realize it, but there’s an awful lot of pressure on the young Venezuela-born infielder to perform well. Why? Well, all the way back on November 28th, 2014, Oakland agreed to trade All-Star and eventual 2015 MVP third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays for a four-player package: Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie, Sean Nolin, and Barreto. Graveman has been a serviceable, replaceable backend arm. Lawrie, the supposed centerpiece of the deal, lasted one terrible season in Oakland before moving onto the White Sox. And Nolin, made six starts with Oakland in 2015 and hasn’t been seen or heard of since. So, you see, it’s clearly up to Barreto to salvage any part of that deal.

The pint-sized middle infielder spent the majority of last season in the Pacific Coast League, hitting a league average-ish .290/.339/.456 with 19 doubles, seven triples, and a career high 15 homeruns. He also swiped 10 bags in 23 total attempts. He also appeared in 25 games with the big league club where the production was…forgettable. Or at least, everyone involved is trying to forget. He “batted” .197/.250/.352 with a pathetic 58 wRC+. For his minor league career, Barreto is sporting a solid .292/.347/.463 – numbers nearly identical to his 2017 showing with the Nashville Sounds.

Projection: I’ve been riding the Barreto Express for a long, long time – literally since my very first book all the way back in 2014. Here’s what I wrote about the then-Blue Jays prospect:

“Barreto bypassed the foreign rookie leagues, which speaks to how the Jays view him. It’s still incredibly early, but he showed a strong hit tool, above-average power, and a decent eye at the plate. And despite the struggles in his 15-game stint in the Gulf, it wouldn’t be out the question to see the 18-year-old in A-ball next season.”

And I followed that up a year later with this:

“And now the bad news, sort of: the Venezuelan-born shortstop, who originally signed with Toronto for a shade under $1.5 million in 2012, stands just 5-foot-9. To put that in perspective, only five players –David Eckstein, Jimmy Rollins, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel, and Rafael Furcal – have stood 5-foot-9 or less, posted an OPS+ 100 or better, and appeared in at least 120 games at shortstop in a season since 2000.

And not to throw out something so cliché, but this is such an Oakland move – acquiring a promising offensive-minded prospect despite any perceived physical limitations. You really do have to love that type of mentality. CAL is also a pretty big fan of Barreto’s just two seasons into his career, linking him to Dilson Herrera, Alen Hanson, and former A’s shortstop of the future Addison Russell.

Barreto offers surprising pop, decent plate discipline, above-average speed, and a promising bat. That’s certainly a set of tools to bet on.”

Once again, here’s what I wrote in the 2016 Handbook:

“Well, he didn’t add any height to his vertically challenged frame. And CAL is still a fan by tying him to Dodgers current shortstop of the future Corey Seager. While Stockton’s home field tends to inflate power numbers – his overall production, according to StatCorner, drops from .302/.333/.500 to .300/.330/.481 – Barreto has such a strong foundation in place for future success: above-average power, strong contact rates, solid-average or better hit tool, and speed. His lone red flag is a bit nitpick-y: he walked just 4.1% of the time last season, but that number was a lot higher in Short-Season ball two years ago. It remains to be seen if his small stature will allow him to stay at shortstop, but there’s plenty of offensive firepower here.”

Finally, since we’re taking the long, scenic route down memory lane, here’s what I wrote in last year’s book when I ranked him as the system’s second best prospect:

“One year later and one step closer to making an impact at the big league level. Oakland experimented with the promising youngster manning the keystone position – a move that makes sense given his stature and the fact that Marcus Semien is currently blocking his path at shortstop. After a terrible May, Barreto slugged .322/.381/.486 with 29 extra-base hits over his last 74 games. As predicted, his walk rate bounced back up to the numbers he showed in short season ball. The power is enough to keep pitchers – and outfielders – honest. And both the hit tool and speed are above-average offerings. He has the makings of a .290/.340/.415 big league hitter.”

Really, after expending so much ink on Barreto what else is there to say? Glad you asked! Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, here’s a list of 21-year-old hitters that posted a 100 to 110 wRC+ total in the PCL (min. 400 PA): Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Manuel Margot, Felix Pie, and Anthony Gose. All five of them, of course, saw – or will see – significant time in the big leagues.

Let’s take it another step and look at each players’ peripherals during their age-21 season in the PCL:

Player BB% K% ISO wRC+ Franklin Barreto 5.30% 27.60% 0.166 103 Javier Baez 7.80% 30.00% 0.250 108 Corey Seager 6.90% 14.00% 0.173 106 Felix Pie 7.40% 20.20% 0.168 107 Anthony Gose 10.20% 21.00% 0.133 106 Manuel Margot 6.40% 11.30% 0.122 108

Barreto looks like a solid, better than average middle infielder. He just has to unseat incumbent Jed Lowrie to win the keystone position. Oakland’s potential infield of Matt Olson, Barreto, Marcus Semien, and Matt Chapman looks awfully young and awfully talented.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

4. Austin Beck, CF

Background: Armed with the sixth pick in the draft for the second consecutive season, Oakland opted for prep prospect Austin Beck out of North Davidson High School in Lexington, North Carolina. Beck, a 6-foot-1, 200-pound center fielder, really struggled in his debut in the Arizona Summer League, the lowest stateside level of competition. In 41 games, Beck batted a disappointing .211/.293/.349 with seven doubles, four triples, and a pair of homeruns. He also swiped seven bags in eight total attempts. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was a whopping 23% below the league average mark.

Projection: Well, that didn’t go according to plan. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, there were 72 players that posted a wRC+ total of 85 or below during their age-18 season in the Arizona Summer League (min. 125 PA). Of those 72, only four of them – Derrick Robinson, Jose Rondon, Socrates Brito, and Yadiel Rivera – made it to the big leagues before the end of 2017.

Not good odds…clearly. But it’s not all doom-and-gloom for the high round pick. After an atrocious 14-game span to open his career – he batted just .111/.186/.167 – Beck slugged a respectable .265/.348/.449 over his final 27 games. His overall production over that span topped the league average mark by 14%. Beck showed a promising eye and power, but his swing-and-miss tendencies need to be watched moving forward.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

5. Jorge Mateo, SS

Background: Another of the pieces Oakland GM David Frost & Co. acquired from the Yankees in the Sonny Gray deal. Mateo, a traditional shortstop by nature, has also spent time at the keystone as well as in center field. Last season, though, was the epitome of Mateo’s six-year minor league career. He frustrated in High Class A, batting a below average .240/.288/.400 over his first 69 games. And he dazzled between both organizations’ Class AA affiliates, slugging an impressive .296/.357/.521 with 14 doubles, 10 triples, and eight homeruns as well as swiping 24 bags in 34 attempts. For his career, Mateo is sporting a solid, though far from spectacular, .269/.335/.416 triple-slash line, slugging 85 doubles, 46 triples, and 30 homeruns to go along with 234 stolen bases in 452 total games.

Projection: Taking a page out of Eminem book: “May I have your attention please? Will the real Jorge Mateo please stand up?” Mateo continued to offer glimpses – sometimes across long durations – of a budding superstar. And other times, as I noted in last year’s book, he hardly looks like more than a super-sub. At his best, Mateo flashes solid average or better power; blazing, game-changing speed on the base paths; a decent eye at the plate; a strong hit tool, and improving defense at a premium position. The problem: he’s never been able to put it all together for an entire season.

His work between the Eastern and Texas Leagues was the closest he’s come. Consider the following:

Among all hitters 22-years-old or younger in any Class AA level, Mateo’s overall production ranked fourth, trailing only Austin Hays, Rafael Devers, and Justin Williams (min. 250 PA).

He led all three Class AA leagues – Eastern, Southern, and Texas – with 10 triples, two more than runner up Joe McCarthy who played in more than double the amount of games at the level.

Despite appearing in just 60 total Class AA games, his 24 stolen bases still ranked 10th

He’s risky. If he can find a skosh of consistency, he could be one of the top 15 shortstops in baseball (if he remains at the position).

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2018

6. Dustin Fowler, OF

Background: There’s little doubt that the Oakland front office believes firmly in modern medicine. They acquired not one, not two, but three different prospects with varying health/injury issues. Both Jesus Luzardo and James Kaprielian were on the comeback trail from Tommy John surgery. And Fowler, who was acquired as part of the package New York sent to Oakland for Sonny Gray, ruptured his patella tendon during his first big league game. The half inning before he was scheduled to bat. The subsequent surgery, according to various reports, went well. Prior to what was described as a “gruesome” injury, Fowler was in the midst of a career year in the International League. In 70 games with the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, he slugged .293/.329/.542 with 19 doubles, eight triples, and a career best 13 homeruns. The former 18th round pick also swiped 13 bags in 18 tries. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 38%. For his career, Fowler owns a solid .282/.315/.450 triple-slash line, slugging 90 doubles, 39 triples, and 39 homeruns in 421 games.

Projection: So let’s assume – for everyone’s sake – that Fowler will come back from the injury with little to no setbacks. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, here’s a list of 22-year-old hitters that posted a 130 or better wRC+ in the International League (min. 300 PA): Gregory Polanco and Elijah Dukes. Polanco owns a career 93 wRC+. And Dukes, whose talent was overshadowed by pure stupidity, posted a 105 wRC+ across 240 career games.

That’s a pretty exclusive club – especially for a player having a career year like Fowler. So let’s do the same study on his 2016 showing in the Eastern League. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, here’s a list of 21-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ total between 105 and 115 (min. 400 PA): Gary Sanchez, Austin Jackson, Alen Hanson, Che-Hsuan Lin, and Willy Garcia.

Again, it’s a solid collection of guys: Sanchez is a stud; Jackson owns a 103 wRC+ career mark; and the remaining three are borderline big leaguers. As far as Fowler is concerned, the power surge he experienced in 2016 only got better as he moved up to Class AAA last season. He showed above-average speed, though it’s not a certainty to return considering the injury. The lone knock: his abysmal walk rates, which will severely limit his ceiling.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

7. Sheldon Neuse, 3B/SS

Background: Part of the three-player return from the Nationals that sent veteran Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle eastward. Washington originally drafted the 6-foot, 195-pound third baseman/shortstop in the second round, 58th overall, after a stellar junior season at the University of Oklahoma. The former Sooner, who batted a stellar .369/.465/.646 with 15 doubles, five triples, and 10 homeruns during his final campaign in college, looked completely underwhelming and overmatched during his debut in the New York-Penn League, batting a disappointing .230/.305/.341 with just nine extra-base hits in 36 games. But Neuse quickly made up for lost time in 2017, skipping through three different levels – the Sally, High Class A, and Class AA – en route to slugging an impressive .321/.382/.502 with 26 doubles, three triples, 16 homeruns, and 14 stolen bases. His overall production between both organizations, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 49%.

Projection: Prior to the 2016 draft, here’s what I wrote about the former Oklahoma stud:

“Context, obviously:

There have been three Division I players to hit .370/.460/.680 with strikeout and walk rates north of 15%: A.J. Miller, Adam Walker, and Jeff Boehm.

Obviously, Walker, the Twins’ 2012 third round pick, is the best comparison, though he’s proven to be nothing more than a one-dimensional MiLB slugger. If Neuse can stick at shortstop he has slightly higher upside. On the mound, he might have the ceiling as a middle relief arm.”

And I added the following little footnote in last year’s book:

“For what it’s worth, I pegged Neuse as a third round talent. Let’s just say, he is certainly heading down the path of an underwhelming prospect.”

After his dominant breakout 2017 season, Neuse hardly looks like an underwhelming prospect any more – quite the opposite now, actually. The former collegiate two-way player split his time between shortstop and third base with the Nationals’ minor league affiliates, but he manned the hot corner exclusively once he was shipped to Oakland. He’s been far superior defender at third, according to Clay Davenport’s metrics, than at short. He’s probably headed for some regression, similar to a lot of players that post unsustainable BABIPs across several levels. But there’s some promising big league value here. He has 15- to 20-homer potential, average eye, a little bit of speed, and a solid defender. Maybe he turns into a poor man’s Anthony Rendon.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Including Deichmann, Louisiana State University has had 24 players selected between the first two rounds of the June amateur draft. Fun Fact Part II: The school has had 16 players drafted over the past two years, including Deichmann, who was selected by the Twins in the 26th round as a draft-eligible sophomore and a year later by the A’s in the second round. Fun Fact Part III: A staggering 58 different prospects have been selected out of the school, in any phase of the draft. Fun Fact Part IV: Eleven different former Tigers have accrued at least 8.0 bWAR throughout their respective big league careers: Albert Belle (39.9), Aaron Hill (23.8), Ben McDonald (20.9), Paul Byrd (16.3), DJ LeMahieu (14.4), Curtis Leskanic (12.4), Todd Walker (10.5), Jeff Reboulet (10.2), Mike Sirotka (9.8), Mark Guthrie (9.6), and Kevin Gausman (8.0).

Wwith respect to Deichmann: after appearing in just 10 games – and earning just 11 trips to the plate – as a true freshman, he was a pleasant surprise for LSU Head Coach Paul Mainieri during his follow-up season two years ago. In 64 games for the Tigers, the 6-foot-2, 209-pound corner infielder/outfielder slugged a solid .288/.346/.513 with 14 doubles, three triples, 11 homeruns, and five stolen bases (in 11 attempts). The lefty-swinging Deichmann finished the year with a 41-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Minnesota Twins took a late round flier on the draft-eligible sophomore – though he bypassed a chance to enter pro ball as a 26th round pick and headed back to school.And it proved to be a wise decision. In 72 games for one of college baseball’s preeminent programs, Deichmann set several career bests including: average (.308), on-base percentage (.417), slugging percentage (.579), homeruns (19), walks (51), walk rate (15.7%), and stolen bases (7).

After being selected with the 43rd overall pick, he continued to bash and batter the competition in the New York-Penn League: in 46 games with the Vermont Lake Monsters, the second round pick slugged .274/.385/.530 with 10 doubles, four triples, and eight homeruns with four stolen bases in five attempts. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by an impressive, mind-boggling 71% – tied for the third best mark in the NYPL and both short-season leagues.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about him heading into the 2017 draft last season:

“Deichmann has put together a nice little career for the Tigers. He’s performed well for a powerhouse program. His power has developed into an above-average skill. His plate discipline has dramatically improved. And he shows a smattering of speed. And just to put his breakout 2017 season into perspective, consider the following anecdote:

That’s obviously a list littered with top prospects. Deichmann doesn’t profile as well at first base as he does in a corner outfield spot. He has the makings of a league average-type hitter, capable of posting a .260/.330/.440-type line.”

Now consider the following with respect to his work in the NYPL during his debut:

Between 2006 and 2014, there were just 11 hitters aged 21-years-old that posted a 160 or better wRC+ in the NYPL (min. 175 PA). Of those 11, two of them, J.D. Martinez and Preston Tucker, made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017.

Consider Deichmann’s peripherals vs. the numbers Martinez and Tucker put up in the NYPL during their respective age 21 seasons:

Player PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Greg Deichmann 195 14.40% 20.50% 0.256 171 J.D. Martinez 208 7.20% 14.40% 0.214 165 Preston Tucker 188 9.60% 8.50% 0.188 165

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

9. Sean Murphy, C

Background: Wright State University hasn’t exactly produced a lot of big league talent throughout the years. The college’s only big league alums are veteran arms Joe Smith and Brian Anderson as well as Keith Gordon, who appeared in three games for the Cincinnati Reds all the way back in 1993. So when Oakland grabbed Murphy, a 6-foot-3, 215-pound backstop in the third round two years ago, they were treading in mostly uncharted waters. Murphy turned in a solid three-year career for the Raiders, leaving the school as a .309/.407/.464 hitter. The 83rd overall selection, Murphy hardly looked the part of an offensive-minded backstop during his debut with the Vermont Lake Monsters, slugging a paltry .237/.318/.329 in 85 plate appearances. Undeterred – or concerned – by his initial struggles, the front office aggressively challenged the young catcher and pushed him directly up to High Class A at the start of 2017. And he shined. In 45 games with the Stockton Ports, Murphy batted a robust .297/.343/.527 with 11 doubles and nine homeruns. So, of course, he got promoted up to the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA. This time, though, he failed – and flailed. He cobbled together a lowly .209/.288/.309 triple-slash line in 53 contests.

Projection: Murphy, through a couple small sample sizes, has been incredibly efficient – and valuable – behind the plate. According to Clay Davenport’s metrics, Murphy has been a +18 defender during his brief professional career, including his work in the Arizona Fall League last season. He’s also thrown out one-third of potential would-be base stealers as well. So, clearly, anything he provides with the stick will be icing on the cake. Unsurprisingly, at least for an Oakland A’s draft pick, Murphy was incredibly patient during his amateur career, sporting an 86-to-76 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And most of that has carried over into the professional ranks as well. He ran into quite a few homeruns in a short amount of time in High Class A and I’m not ready to buy into it – especially looking back at his collegiate numbers. There’s some starting caliber potential here, but Murphy is going to have show something in his return to Class AA in 2018.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

10. Grant Holmes, RHP

Background: Oakland acquired the former first round pick in early August two years ago, agreeing to send Josh Reddick and Rich Hill to their instate rivals, the Dodgers, in exchange for the young right-hander along with Frankie Montas and Jharel Cotton. Holmes, the 22nd overall pick out of Conway High School in 2014, spent last season with the Midland RockHounds in the Texas League. The then-21-year-old tossed a career best 148.1 innings, fanning 150 and walking 61 walks. He finished the year with an unsightly 4.49 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, and a 3.97 DRA (Deserved Run Average). For his career, Holmes is sporting an impressive 449-to-181 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 4.13 ERA across 434.0 innings.

Projection: Another personal favorite of mine. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of 21-year-old arms to record a strikeout percentage of at least 23% in the Texas League (min. 120 IP): Will Inman and Holmes. Expanding it a bit, since 2006 here’s a list of 21-year-old pitchers to post at least a 20% K% in the TL (min. 120 IP): Holmes, Inman, Enyel De Los Santos, Kasey Kiker, James Simmons, and Keyvius Sampson.

Obviously, it’s a less-than-inspiring group as none have panned out – especially among the group of pitchers with a walk percentage of at least 9.5%: Kiker, Sampson, and Inman. I’m a still a big fan of Holmes. But history doesn’t seem to be on his side. His control is still below-average so he has work to do. It wouldn’t be all that shocking to see him end up in a relief spot if his progression plateaus in a couple years.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2018

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.