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OTTAWA — If you blinked, you might have missed it.

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It was a pep talk, directed at the core of Canada’s economic downturn. The country has lived through previous swings in energy fortunes, Steven Poloz told a Calgary business audience on Monday, and it will adjust much the same way to the current collapse in oil prices.

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But Canada’s economy appears to be turning a corner — away from a technical recession and toward a sustainable growth path.

The pace may not be consistent, at the moment, but the numbers are starting to add up to a third-quarter gain after two consecutive declines in the first half of 2015.

In fact, gross domestic product — the measure of all goods and services produced in this country — could be close to, or even matching, that of the United States between July and September.

So far, most forecasters expect the current quarter’s output to come in anywhere from 1.5 per cent — in line with the Bank of Canada’s most recent estimate — to about 2.8 per cent.