9172 (11/04) → 8754 (11/08) → 9072 (11/11) → 8532 (11/17) is a summary of the price movements of Bitcoin futures (BitMEX) for the past two weeks.

All price data were collected on 11/17 22:00

BTC/USD (BitMEX)

After gaining 40% in price from 10/25, Bitcoin showed a downward trend, netting about -6.97% in the past two weeks. There were four parts to the two-week trend. As shown in Figure 1-A, following the growth spur, Bitcoin maintained consolidation until 11/08. Then there was a sharp drop (as shown in Figure 1-B), before another consolidation until 11/11, and a sudden rise on this day (as shown in Figure 1-C). There was no clear signal or news of this sudden rise. Speculation may be that a whale entered the market to pump up the price, lasting about four minutes, and after reaching $9,000 for a while, allowed a wave of sharp declines to pull the price back. Finally, Bitcoin showed consolidation and decline (as shown Figure 1-D).

Figure 1: BTC/USD (BitMEX) Recent trends (hourly line). Source: AIcoin.

Binance mainstream crypto trend analysis

Almost all mainstream currencies have been consolidating or experiencing decline (as shown in Table 1). In Figure 2, we see that while the trend persists, BNB’s performance has been rather abnormal. After 11/11, BNB experienced a contrarian rise, going against the trend from the mainstream market.

The cumulative rate of return (in USDT) for these cryptocurrencies in the last two weeks is as follows:

Table 1: Cumulative rate of return for each cryptocurrency based on USDT

Figure 2: Cumulative rate of return for each cryptocurrency based on USDT

Market Outlook

In the past two weeks, with Bitcoin’s consolidation and decline, volatility and trading volume have also gradually declined. News were needed to stimulate the price trend. At present, the transaction volume of BitMEX reached the same volume in March this year, which sparked a large segment of the longs back then. Given historical cases, there is still a possibility that large fluctuations are in view.

Bincentive’s Selected Strategies

While Bitcoin price has been consolidating and declining in the past two weeks, the volatility is relatively small compared to the previous period. There may be some small losses with trend following strategies, but there were still winners. The following strategies share a lower signal frequency, so they are not affected by noise during consolidation periods. In fact, they capture relatively long-term trends.