Once again, it is the time of year where Football Outsiders makes their projections about all the NFL teams for the upcoming year. If you are a football junkie, I strongly recommend purchasing the 2014 Football Outsiders Almanac (Amazon link here). The yearly guide tends to either confirm or challenge your thinking about teams and even the way you think of the game. (I’ve paid for a hard copy of every year’s since 2008 as I’m a believer in financially supporting good things as I am able).

I think you will like the Texans chapter if you are good with hard truths. It is written by friend of the blog, Rivers McCown (@RiversMcCown). Rivers has been recently made the Lead AFC South Writer for Bleacher Report, and formerly wrote for Football Outsiders and ESPN.com.

After reading the chapters about the Texans and the other teams in the AFC South, I asked him a few questions:

First things first, what does Football Outsiders think of the AFC South and how the Texans in particular will finish in it?

“We have the Texans finishing third in the AFC South. The projection shows them to be about a half-game worse than the Titans, but essentially projects both of them to win between seven and eight games. However, both of these teams project very low in DVOA. The reason they win this many games in our simulations is mostly schedule-related. All four of the teams in the AFC South project to have five of the weakest schedules in the NFL, mostly because they play six games against each other. What that means in practice is that there are a lot of wins up for grabs. I tend to agree with FO’s projections, but I think I’d slide Houston into the six or seven win range.”

How accurate can previous year projections be given significant changes for the vast majority of the coaching staff? Is there more accuracy when that position is stable? Does Football Outsiders have anything predictive to say about what happens after coaching changes, particularly with first time NFL head coaches?

“That’s a point I think analytics has yet to explore properly. What happens with our projection system is that we build history off all teams past, rather than the past of a coach. Danny Tuccitto has done some (warning: fairly stat-nerd heavy) preliminary research on this at his new site: http://intentionalrounding.com/bienvenidos-multilevel/. Basically he found that we should spend more time working off base assumptions of a coaching staff.

What that means for Texans fans? That you should push your expectations for the team higher if you believe that Bill O’Brien is a coaching savant — and I think that’s a point you could argue. Right now the FO projection system doesn’t account much empirically for coaching changes with first-time NFL head coaches.”

Football Outsiders has done research that suggests, “A team built on depth is better than a team built on stars and scrubs.” Could you elaborate and how do you see the 2014 Texans?

“More than any other sport, football is a game of attrition. There are more players and more injuries. A team without enough functional depth to get through the season is going to get exposed, because, contrary to Bob McNair’s magical land where injuries are unexpected, injuries are a part of the league. If you come into the season only looking at the best-case scenario for a roster, you’re often going to be disappointed. Because it won’t hit often.

And with the Texans, the problem isn’t the frontline talent. J.J. Watt IS the most valuable non-quarterback in the league. Johnathan Joseph is a legitimate No. 1 cornerback. Duane Brown, a healthy Brian Cushing, Andre Johnson. You can argue that Houston has top-10 players at all of those spots.

But the rest of the roster is simply barren. Houston is in a situation where players that have shown no empirical evidence of being good are still starting because they have no one else. Derek Newton is only left to be pushed by a washed up Tyson Clabo, the third receiver spot pits Keshawn Martin and DeVier Posey, two third-year receivers with zero good NFL seasons, against each other. When a team drafts a player on the second day and immediately pencils him in as a starter, they’re often hoping that he can fill a gaping hole. The Texans did that THREE times in the draft. They’re trying to move Brooks Reed around because he can’t really rush the passer, and they had to draft Jadeveon Clowney because Whitney Mercilus can’t tow the pass-rushing load they hoped he could. That’s not to say that Houston can’t find good play from one or some of those positions … Brice McCain was the best nickelback in the NFL in 2011 … it’s just to say that it’s fairly unlikely that they’ll all hit best-case.”

What are some Football Outsiders concepts that tend to suggest positive things for the upcoming year? And some negative concepts? Any surprising information?

“Most of the statistical indicators that showed the Texans bouncing back have already been covered by Bill Barnwell at Grantland here. The TL;DR version is that Houston was dramatically unlucky in close games, turnover margin, defensive points allowed, and the record we’d expect them to have given their points scored and allowed. Next season, we expect that to turn around. We also look at them having the easiest schedule in the NFL by our projections and see them scoring more wins off of that.

Essentially all of the underlying numbers like a Texans bounceback. The problem is that, well, this just isn’t a very good roster right now. Houston did spend some money reinforcing safety in the offseason, but outside of that this is a complete youth movement at a lot of spots. And when a roster with noticeable holes mixes with Ryan Fitzpatrick, the result does not equal “INSTANT RETURN TO PLAYOFFS” so much as “NARRATIVE-PLEASING IMPROVEMENT YEAR.””

Football Outsiders has typically provided the most stark numbers on how bad the Texans special team has been for years. The good news is that it looks like from the off-season that the team is spending more coaching efforts/time on that side of the ball. The bad news is that it looks like from the roster that they really haven’t added much speed/personnel to help with special teams either. Do any Football Outsider concepts tend to predict anything for Texans special teams?

“Right, we’re not high on Houston special teams this year either. The one positive indicator is that kicker performance is often quite variable, and Randy Bullock was abysmal last season. (To the point where I lost a dinner bet on if he’d be released following the Colts game.) Assuming the Texans either get better play from Bullock or turn to UDFA Chris Boswell, they should get more reliable results. The other good news is that special teams tend to be quite variable, so a quick turnaround would not be unprecedented. Beyond that, they lost their best gunner when Bryan Braman fled to Philadelphia, Keshawn Martin has been absolute clownshoes returning kicks at times, and the coverage units project to be pretty bad. At least Shane Lechler still kicks ass.”

Anything I didn’t ask you that you think we would want to or need to hear?

“Football projection often isn’t rocket science. The one thing I’d say is that there is a difference between being a fan and being an analyst. I feel like I spend a lot of my time issuing reality checks to fans. Yes, you’re going into an NFL season with Ryan Fitzpatrick as your starting quarterback. That’s not a recipe for success, as all of NFL history will tell you. That doesn’t mean your emotional side is wrong when it feels Houston is on the rise again. It doesn’t mean you should feel bad for hoping and believing in the best for your team. This isn’t meant to bring you down. It’s just meant to show you the most probable result. History is founded on all sorts of improbable events. And who knows what can happen in 16 games?”

Please thank Rivers for answering some questions about the Football Outsider projections.

The Texans projected strength of schedule is the easiest in the league. Their analysis suggests a 41% chance of mediocrity (5-7 wins), and a 35% chance of being a playoff contender (8-10). Basically, where much of the NFL is in a parity league.

What was so surprising for me reading the Texans chapter was how much I tended to agree with it.

I am not sure what kind of coach Bill O’Brien will be. I like a lot of what I see him doing on the field in the off-season. That said, I don’t think the Texans roster is the ideal configuration this year, no matter how good the coach is. The offense in particular looks like it still needs a lot of work and the preseason will be here shortly.

Your thoughts?

Twitter @StephStradley | StephStradley.com