NHS reforms and A&E closures cost Theresa May a majority at the election NHS reforms that will result in some hospitals and emergency departments closing cost Theresa May a majority at the general […]

NHS reforms that will result in some hospitals and emergency departments closing cost Theresa May a majority at the general election , according to new research which reveals how much the public are concerned about the proposed changes.

Competitive constituencies where a Sustainability and Transformation Plan (STP) – drawn up to prevent a £20bn black hole from appearing in the health budget by 2020 – contain an A&E closure or downgrade saw double the swing from the Conservatives to Labour compared to those seats with no planned changes.

The new analysis, by the specialist health consultancy Incisive Health and seen by i, reveals that the average 2017 swing from Conservatives to Labour in 105 marginal seats facing local A&E changes was 3.2 per cent. In seats not facing A&E changes the swing to Labour was half at 1.6 per cent.

“The General Election was billed as the Brexit election, but changes to hospitals was a big issue on the doorstep. Public concern about the future of an A&E can cut-through the noise of an election campaign like little else.” The i newsletter cut through the noise Email address is invalid Email address is invalid Thank you for subscribing! Sorry, there was a problem with your subscription. Kieran Lucia, Account Manager, Incisive Health

If the swing in the 105 seats facing local A&E changes or closures is adjusted to match areas without, the Conservatives would have won 12 more seats – enough to have given Mrs May a majority in the House of Commons.

Incisive Health reviewed the election results for 191 constituencies where the incumbent MP had a majority of less than 10,000 and where the swing at the election was directly between the Conservative and Labour parties. Labour scalps at the election in June included the former health minister David Mowat.

In its election manifesto, Labour said it would “halt and review the NHS ‘Sustainability and Transformation Plans’, which are looking at closing health services across England, and ask local people to participate in the redrawing of plans with a focus on patient need rather than available finances”.

Many Labour candidates put STPs at the forefront of their campaign. Ilford North MP Wes Streeting and Rupa Huq, MP for Ealing Central and Acton, who both held their seats with an increased majority, highlighted their personal opposition to the planned closure of A&Es at The King George Hospital and Ealing Hospital respectively.

In their manifesto, the Conservatives said they supported STPs “providing they are clinically led and locally supported”.

Local campaigns

Many Labour candidates capitalised on NHS reform plans at the expense of their Tory rivals. David Nuttall, defending a majority of just 378 in Bury North for the Conservatives, saw Labour surge to a majority of 4,375 with a swing of 5 per cent on the back of a campaign focusing on the potential closure of Fairfield General Hospital in Bury.

Mr Mowat was targeted in his Warrington South constituency over plans to cut opening times at Warrington Hospital and the risk of a downgrade. He lost his seat to Faisal Rashid as a near 3,000 majority was wiped out by a 4.4 per cent swing to Labour.

Kieran Lucia, account manager at Incisive Health said: “The General Election was billed as the Brexit election, but changes to hospitals was a big issue on the doorstep. Public concern about the future of an A&E can cut-through the noise of an election campaign like little else.

“Across the country, hospital beds, staff or entire units have been put at risk, and the suspicion is that these proposals are being driven by the Tories’ funding squeeze rather than by what is best for patients.” Justin Madders, shadow Health Minister

“The fact that there was a bigger swing in constituencies where changes to local A&Es were on the cards will not be lost on Conservative MPs who are anxious about the size of their majority. With the political situation more uncertain than ever, the challenge for the NHS of selling controversial changes to a sceptical public and nervous politicians will only get tougher.”

Labour shadow health minister Justin Madders told i: “The Tories’ secretive plans for the NHS have been dogged by controversy and have been deeply mistrusted by the public from the start. Across the country, hospital beds, staff or entire units have been put at risk, and the suspicion is that these proposals are being driven by the Tories’ funding squeeze rather than by what is best for patients.

“At the election Labour made clear that we would halt the STP process, give the NHS the money it needs, and ask for the plans to be redrawn with the best interests of patients put first.

“The Tories’ underfunding of the NHS has led to increased waiting times, delayed treatments and rationing of services across the country, so it’s not surprising the public just don’t trust the Tories to do what’s best for the health service and its patients.”

Last week, the Government announced £325m of capital investment for local projects that it says will help the NHS to “modernise and transform care for patients”. The Conservative party declined to comment.