Accusations of a chemical weapon attack — and a major diplomatic crisis just days before a presidential election — might give some world leaders pause for thought. Not Vladimir Putin.

Faced with an ultimatum from Prime Minister Theresa May over an attempted assassination on British soil, the Russian strongman is making a show of just how strong he thinks he is — among his own voters, and on the international stage.

With a presidential election this Sunday, Putin is strutting his stuff — and perhaps even counting on the latest confrontation with the West to mobilize voters in his favor.

Declaring the allegations against Russia to be "a circus," Moscow waved off U.K. demands for an explanation. Instead, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov audaciously declared on Tuesday that it was Britain that needed to comply with international norms and provide Moscow with samples of the nerve agent and details of its investigation, in accordance with a convention against chemical weapons.

Far from displaying any concern about the response from the West, which already has a battery of economic sanctions in place against Moscow, Putin is planning one last, big campaign rally — in Crimea, the very peninsula he annexed in 2014 in violation of international law. Could the message be any clearer that he has no fear of London or Brussels, let alone Washington?

The nerve powder used to critically injure the former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, was of military grade, and of Russian origin.

If the Kremlin is behind the attack, said Matthew Rojansky of the Kennan Institute, a Russia-focused think tank in Washington, "it can hardly be without an eye to the March 18 election."

"Putin needs at least some turnout from his base for the election to serve its purpose of showcasing the regime's legitimacy," Rojansky said. "His message for driving that turnout is that Russia is under assault and he is its protector, so it is possible that provoking a crisis with the West at this exact moment is an attempt to goad Western leaders into playing along with the storyline, providing the dramatic condemnations and dire warnings he needs just when he needs them."

Confronted by a BBC correspondent on Monday about the nerve agent attack during a visit to a national grain center in Krasnodar, Putin rebuked the reporter, saying he was focused on improving people's lives.

"And you talk to me about some tragedies," Putin snapped. "Get to the bottom of it there," he said, referring to the U.K., "and then we'll discuss these things."

If the British intelligence services have not yet gotten to the bottom of it, they know enough. The nerve powder used to critically injure the former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, was of military grade, and of Russian origin — a substance called Novichok that is said to be several times more powerful than other toxins like VX or Sarin gas. That was enough for May to declare it "highly likely" Russia is responsible for the attack, in which Skripal's daughter, Yulia, was also gravely injured and more than 20 others were contaminated.

But in the "Russia vs. the West" narrative that Putin has cultivated for political gain since returning to the presidency in 2012, May's accusation is just one more page in a story the Russian public has been listening to for years. It's Russia against the West in Ukraine. Russia against the West in Syria. Russia against the U.S. in the 2016 election.

The moral of the story is always the same: It's Putin who has made Russia great again.

Little to lose

The latest polls show Putin winning the election with about 70 percent of votes — a landslide compared to the squeaker victories of his Western counterparts, and the result of the near total government control of Russian television media and the suppression of any real opposition.

There might be issues that could dent Putin's public support — Russian casualties in Syria or Ukraine, say, or a stagnating economy — but accusations that the Kremlin tried to kill a man known to have betrayed Russia is not one of them. If anything, it could be a political winner — the latest evidence that Putin knows no fear, that the long arm of his security services will reach wherever it wants to eliminate its enemies.

If the one risk to Putin is that he might have overplayed his hand, chances are that this will not be clear until well after Russian voters have reelected him to another six-year term.

Indeed, Russia seemed to collectively mock May's allegations, turning "highly likely" into a meme, including a video on the foreign ministry's official English-language Twitter feed saying it was "highly likely" Russia had caused snowy weather in the U.K.

It may have been a politically opportune moment for Russia to strike in more ways than one, with U.K. officials preoccupied by Brexit and U.S. President Donald Trump focused on turmoil in the White House, the dismissal of his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson (notably a day after Tillerson criticized Moscow over the chemical attack) and on potential nuclear talks with North Korea.

In his first comments on the attack, Trump did not immediately point a finger. “As soon as we get the facts straight, if we agree with them, we will condemn Russia or whoever it may be," Trump said.

If the one risk to Putin is that he might have overplayed his hand, chances are that this will not be clear until well after Russian voters have reelected him to another six-year term.

The Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, who has been barred from running against Putin, urged May to retaliate by imposing further sanctions on oligarchs, specifically the billionaires Roman Abramovich, who lives in London and owns Chelsea Football Club, and Alisher Usmanov, who now lives in Switzerland, as well as a wealthy deputy prime minister, Igor Shuvalov.

What would be the most effective and publicly supported type of sanctions that the UK could impose on Russia in response to the attempted assassination of Skripal? (assuming the Russian secret serves are indeed culpable) The answer is three surnames: Abramivich, Usmanov, Shuvalov — Alexey Navalny (@navalny) March 12, 2018

Others have suggested revoking the credentials of RT, the Russian-government controlled television network that broadcasts in the U.K., or boycotting the upcoming football World Cup. But with the Russian economy already weathering the sanctions in place over Crimea and Ukraine, Putin may see little downside to further financial penalties. And in a sign Moscow may be relishing the fight, Russia warned on Tuesday evening that no British news outlet will operate there if RT is shut down in the U.K.

"While there will likely be concrete negative consequences for Russia in addition to condemnation, in the form of new sanctions, boycotts of the World Cup, etc.," said Rojansky, the Washington-based analyst, "the state of mutual isolation between Russia and the West has become so dire that Putin may calculate he has little further to lose, especially in the short term run-up to the election."

Rojansky added: "If he needs a quick diplomatic win to reverse the damage after the election, he has plenty of fields on which to play, from Ukraine to Syria and North Korea."