It’s Cleveland or bust.

The only way Republicans can stop Donald Trump from capturing their party’s presidential nomination will be if they go to the July party convention without a clear standard-bearer.

Virtually every GOP member of The POLITICO Caucus – a panel of operatives, activists, strategists and elected officials in four key March-voting battleground states – said after Super Tuesday, the door has closed on the possibility of another candidate winning a majority of delegates.


Insiders in these four states – the March 15 primary states of Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, plus Virginia, which voted this week – were split on whether Trump would clinch the nomination before the convention.

Half suggested a diffuse field would deny Trump a majority of delegates, while the rest said Trump was on a path to victory – and establishment efforts to wrest away the nomination on the floor of the convention hall would backfire.

“Trump has not gotten over 50 percent of current delegate allocation,” said a Florida Republican, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “The establishment will try and keep him from getting there to push for a brokered convention. It's the only way to stop him.”

“Republicans need to figure out a way and rationale to fully support Trump assuming he does as well in upcoming contests as he did on Super Tuesday,” countered a North Carolina Republican. “The door is swinging shut on the others and will slam shut if he wins on March 15. I'm not a Trump supporter; however, he is winning fair and square. If Republican Party tries to support some disingenuous alternative, that will have the same effect as throwing a case of hand grenades in our own tent.”

An additional problem for the anti-Trump forces: Trump is well-positioned in the states leading up to the big delegate prizes on March 15. In a survey conducted after Super Tuesday but prior to Thursday night’s GOP primary debate in Michigan, GOP Caucus panelists gave Trump the edge in nearly every state that will vote between now and March 8.

Majorities picked Trump to win caucuses in Kansas, Kentucky and Maine and the Louisiana primary on Saturday. Next Tuesday, majorities of insiders projected Trump would win primaries in Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi. In the Hawaii caucuses, insiders were split between Trump and Marco Rubio.

“The calendar favors Trump and [Ted] Cruz,” said a Virginia Republican. “The turnaround date is March 15 with Ohio and Florida winner-take-all. A Trump win there will end it.”

Some insiders stressed that the Kansas caucuses, which are closed to non-Republicans, could be “an interesting test on Trump and if such a [contest] really exposes Trump,” said a Florida Republican. But a North Carolina Republican said Secretary of State Kris Kobach, an anti-immigration hard-liner backing Trump, “outranks” Gov. Sam Brownback, who endorsed Rubio last month in terms of getting out the vote.

Insiders weren’t asked for their prediction in Sunday’s Republican Primary in Puerto Rico, but a Florida Republican snarked: “Marco will win Puerto Rico, and thus declare himself the biggest winner ever.”

Even given Trump’s advantages in the upcoming days, some Republicans expressed confidence that the next wave of states – Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri – would derail Trump.

“[March 8] will be the last day of the Trump romp. Road gets much rockier from here,” said an Ohio Republican. “We will stop Trump.”

“Party elders and other level-headed types — those who remember how Goldwater broke the GOP brand and the way McGovern shredded Democratic futures — may well puzzle out a solution that turns Trump a new shade of angry orange in Cleveland,” added another Ohio Republican.

On the Democratic side, insiders predict the current dynamic to persist over the next week: Hillary Clinton is favored to win the majority of contests over the next week, but Bernie Sanders will add at least one victory to his total. On Saturday, insiders unanimously predict Clinton will win the primary in Louisiana, while 61 percent also said she would win caucuses in Kansas. The other 39 percent said Sanders was the favorite in Kansas.

Sanders has the edge in Sunday’s caucuses in Maine, with nearly 85 percent of Democratic insiders predicting he’ll win.

Next Tuesday, insiders were unanimous in predicting Clinton would win primaries in Michigan and Mississippi – while about two-thirds said she will add a victory in Idaho.

“Bernie is doing well in New England, and the caucus format should favor him in Maine,” said a Florida Democrat. “The Kansas caucus should perform like Oklahoma. The rest will be [Clinton].”

Despite a unanimous verdict from insiders, Michigan is setting up as the biggest battleground over the next week on the Democratic side. And a number of insiders cited Clinton’s focus on the water crisis in Flint in picking her to win there.

“Sanders is going to put a lot of time, money and effort into pulling off an upset in Michigan,” said a North Carolina Democrat. “He is counting on the labor vote there to help him regain momentum. The Clinton campaign is even dropping hints that he could pull it off. However, I do not see it happening. Hillary was quick to offer her assistance and a real solution to the Flint water crisis. She will also be spending a great deal of time there in the run up to the primary. I think the voters will reward her with a win.”

But some Democrats raised red flags for Clinton, eager for her to dispatch Sanders and discouraged by Sanders’ Super Tuesday victories.

“I was troubled Clinton's inability to put Sanders away on Super Tuesday,” said a Florida Democrat. “She should beat him pretty soundly in the southern states and again on March 15th, but these little victories he continues to win in smaller states just gives him hope at a time she should be putting him away. I am concerned that the Trump general will be harder than many Democrats want to admit, and she needs to put Sanders away so we can start focusing on the real organizing needs in battleground states.”

And Democrats believe Trump is on a glide path to the GOP nomination. Roughly four-in-five said it was most likely Trump wins a majority of delegates, with the rest predicting a contested convention.

And if that happens, Democrats will have the popcorn ready.

“A contested convention will almost certain reject the plurality of primary voters who support Trump,” said a Florida Democrat. “This kind of direct rupture with the actual voters would lead to chaos.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Florida: Alia Faraj-Johnson, Andrea Reilly, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, April Schiff, Ashley Walker, Ben Pollara, Beth Matuga, Brian E. Crowley, Chris Korge, Christian Ulvert, Damien Filer, David Beattie, David Johnson, Dennis Baxley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Nuender, Eric Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Fernand R. Amandi, Fred Menachem, Gus Corbella, Jacki Lee, Jessica D. Ehrlich, Joe Mobley, John Dowless, Jon Mills, Joseph Falk, Judith Diaz, Justin Day, Kelly Cohen, Kevin Cate, Kevin Sweeny, Marian Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Marty Fiorentino, Max Steele, Nelson Diaz, Nick Iarossi, Pamela Burch Fort, Rich Heffley, Richard R. Swann, Rick Wilson, Roger Stone, Ronald L. Book, Ryan Wiggins, Scott Arceneaux, Slater Bayliss, Steve Schale, Steven Vancore, Susan A. MacManus, Tim Baker, Wayne Bertsch

North Carolina: Anita S. Earls, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charles Wallin, Christopher Sgro, Dee Stewart, Douglas Wilson, Dylan Frick, Francis X. De Luca, Jonathan Felts, Melissa Reed, Michael Luethy, Morgan Jackson, Paul Shumaker, Patsy Keever, Ray Martin, Robin Hayes, Tami Fitzgerald, Theresa Kostrzewa, Thomas Mills

Ohio: Bill DeMora, Bob Clegg, Cindy Demse, Damareo Cooper, David Leland, David Pepper, Erica Bruton, Greg Beswick, Ian James, Jai Chabria, Janet Carson, Jo Ann Davidson, Joe Hallett, Kathy DiCristofaro, Mark R. Weaver, Martha Clark, Matt Borges, Melissa Klide Hedden, Michael Gonidakis, Mike Dawson, Molly Shack, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, Tim Burke, Wes Goodman

Virginia: Abbi Easter, Bob Marshall, Brian Coy, Carolyn Fiddler, Chris LaCivita, Doris Crouse-Mays, Ed Matricardi, Frank Leone, Gaylene Kanoyton, Janet Carver, Jeannemarie Devoltes Davis, Jo Thoburn, Joe Fitzgerald, John Crosgrove, John Findlay, Marc Broklawski, Margo Horner, Michael Farris, Patsy Brown, Pete Snyder, Sandra Brandt, Steve Stombres, Sue Langley, Susan J. Rowland, Tom Davis, Tucker Martin

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

