«This year could be the most difficult of the crisis for Europe», predicts Germany's Foreign Affairs Minister, Guido Westerwelle (1). Amid news from Brussels and a number of other EU countries, this conclusion comes as a surprise to no-one. Reports that European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton declined to remain in their posts for the next term are only aggravating the confused impression being given by Europe's political elite. Horses are not usually changed midstream but if they are, it means they are no longer offering any kind of hope.

The Friedrich Ebert Foundation published the results of a study in which experts from 13 European countries took part (2). In their opinion, there are four likely scenarios for Europe leading up to 2020: maintaining the status quo, permanent crisis; the complete break-up of the Eurozone; differentiation with a separate strong core and periphery, with the periphery rejecting the euro; and a full fiscal union within the current Eurozone. The last scenario is considered to be the most realistic. And it is becoming increasingly evident that Germany's key role in settling problems in the Eurozone is creating a special relationship between Germany and its partners… The authors of the study make no mention of the anti-German feelings of debtor countries, whose populations blame Germany for the adoption of austerity programmes. The study also points out that the EU is becoming aware of Germany's economic power, while at the same time debtor countries have a growing sense of fear, although hidden, when it comes to Berlin.

These kinds of feelings are not just seizing the Eurozone, but the European Union as a whole. Only these fears can explain the efforts of certain Central and Eastern European countries to strengthen bilateral contacts with Germany.

At the end of February, former Commissioner of the European Commission, Günter Verheugen, received an honorary doctorate from Babeş-Bolyai University in Romania for his contribution towards Romania joining the European Union. From 1999-2004, the German politician was Commissioner for Enlargement in the European Commission headed by Romano Prodi. At that time, Verheugen was the first to name a deadline for Romania's entry into the EU – 2007. And so it happened; 12 years after officially applying to join, Romania and Bulgaria were accepted into the EU.

Speaking at an awards ceremony in February, Romanian Prime Minister Victor Ponta called the German politician the founding father of the idea of a European Romania. The evaluation was designed to be heard in Berlin. At the beginning of the 1990s, a united Germany was energetically carrying out a strategic course of action to expand the European Union to the east, which in spirit was a response to the age-old tradition of Drang nach Osten. Verheugen, along with other German politicians, worked within the framework of this course of action. The treaty on the accession of six Central and Eastern European countries to the EU, including Romania, was adopted at a session of the Council of the European Union in the German city of Essen in 1994.

It is hardly accidental that the former German politician received his honorary doctorate from a university in Cluj-Napoca – a city in the historical region of Transylvania founded by German merchants; in German it is known as Klausenburg. The city was included in the territories transferred to Hungary as part of the second Vienna Award (1940), and from 1944-1945, during the German occupation of Hungary, it was under the direct control of Berlin. Today, teaching at the university is conducted in Romanian, Hungarian and German. The dispute between Romania and Hungary over this territory has been formally eliminated, otherwise neither country would have been accepted into the EU, but in practice the situation regarding the Hungarian minority is one of the most sensitive domestic policy topics in Romania and acts as a source of friction between Romania and Hungary which escalated after the self-determination of Székely Land in 2009 (the Székelys are a Hungarian minority group).

In contrast, Germany's policy regarding ethnic Germans is not proving unpopular with the Romanian authorities. During the latest session of the German-Romanian government commission (an annual event which takes place alternately in Germany and Romania), the commission's co-chair, German Deputy Interior Minister Christoph Bergner, declared, among other things: «Both the German and Romanian sides recognise that in the interests of the whole of Europe, it is extremely important to give support to the German minority, strengthening their identity and viability» (3). This support has a cash equivalent. In 2013, the German Ministry of Internal Affairs allocated 1.7 million euros and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – 0.4 million euros, while Romania allocated 1.45 million euros (4). At present in Romania, additional payments to ethnic Germans (the overall size of the diaspora is nearly 40,000 people) exceed the size of the country's minimum pension.

Another example of the Romanian authorities' dalliances with influential Germany has been the nomination of Klaus Johannis, who for many years headed the Democratic Forum of Germans in Romania, for the post of First Deputy Chairman of the National Conservative Party. The most surprising aspect of this appointment is the departure from regulation which in cases like these requires a certain length of service in the party that Johannis could not possibly have, as he only appeared in the party four days before his appointment.

So in order to strengthen links with Germany, the Romanians are actively making use of the German ethnic minority's presence in their country. In this regard, the Hungarians have gone even further. From 2013 onwards, the Hungarian parliament has decided that 19 January will be celebrated as a day of remembrance for Germans expelled from Hungary. According to German historians, at least half a million Germans living in Hungary were deported after the Second World War; the overall number of people deported is estimated to be 14 million. Budapest officially apologised for the expulsion of Germans back in 1995. In 2007, the Hungarian parliament held a conference dedicated to the memory of those expelled. That same year, the parliament unanimously voted to establish a day of remembrance and a high-ranking guest from Germany spoke at a special session for the occasion – Bundestag President Norman Lammert. In his speech, he called the Hungarian parliament's decision «an impressive gesture promoting reconciliation and understanding». Angela Merkel also spoke approvingly of this «impressive gesture» when she received Hungarian President Janos Ader in Berlin.

Note that Germany itself does not yet have such a day of remembrance. While in opposition, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Socialist Union (CSU) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) pushed a resolution through the Bundestag in 2003 on the establishment of a day of remembrance and, in 2011, the Bundestag was obliged to consider the possibility of introducing one, but a decision has still not been made. At present, a number of CDU and CSU land offices are suggesting that a day of remembrance be held for victims of the expulsion, while the head of the CSU, Horst Seehofer, is demanding that compensation be paid to Germans who ended up doing forced labour in camps in the USSR, Czechoslovakia, Poland and Romania after the end of the Second World War. According to Erika Steinbach, head of the German Union of Expellees, in 2012 there were 40,000 people living in Germany who would have been entitled to this compensation. Germany's parliamentary parties are in dispute over the choice of date for this remembrance day, but there is certainly no disagreement among German politicians that such a national day of remembrance should be established.

(1) Financial Times, 15.03.2013. Cited from: http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de

(2) Future Scenarios for the Eurozone. 15 Perspectives on the Euro Crisis. March 2013. Berlin, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which organised the project, is one of five so-called party foundations and is associated with Germany's Social Democratic Party.

(4) Ibid.