The Russian government has accused Ukraine of conducting attacks against Russian soldiers and agents in Crimea, but it remains to be seen whether or not there really was a corresponding incident reported on the days in question. Aric Toler of Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensics Lab has published some of the signs and rumors of an impending clash in Crimea. As Toler writes, some of the reports emerged after the FSB officially announced the “foiled terrorist attacks,” saying that “20 people were seen in Armyansk” near the border between Russian-occupied Crimea and Ukraine on August 6, with weapons and explosives, wearing Russian military uniforms. A pro-Russian “independent expert” claimed back on August 8 that Ukraine had killed three Russian soldiers in the area, Toler notes. Curiously for such major sightings and a supposed armed clash, there were no other reports on all the standard social media platforms in the region like VKontakte, Odnoklassniki, nor on Twitter. Toler cites an image of an unusual flyer claimed to be distributed by the Novokrymsky Rural Settlement Administration. The flyer says four persons dressed in green camouflage with diamond chevrons and the Russian flag are being sought in connection with a “serious crime”. One of the suspects was a brunette, the other had dark hair, and all were said to be “of Slavic appearance.” The implication was that they could be saboteurs.

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He also writes: Over the following two days, a deluge of photographs and videos appeared online documenting the movement of other military vehicles, including the Bastion-P mobile coastal defense missile system, moving through Crimea towards Simferopol.

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Read more here: RFE/RL’s Crimean Service Krym.Realii reported on August 8 that local residents were reporting unusual activity by Russian military. A resident of Russian-occupied Sevastopol said checkpoints with the Berkut security police had been set up and documents were being checked but it seemed to be a show — if someone didn’t have their ID with them, they were let through the checkpoints anyway.

YouTube Как перебраться через админграницу с Крымом, и кого на полуострове ищут местные силовики Details… →

Rumors were circulating about “a group of Ukrainian saboteurs,” to the point where Vladislav Seleznev, a spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff, made a statement of rebuttal, calling the stories “a provocation.” He said Ukrainian troops were in their usual places of deployment. Russian customs authorities announced that the Armyansk border crossing was closed, while Perekop and Dzhankoy were left open. A Krym.Realii correspondent reported that people crossing the border into Crimea heard gunfire on the night of August 7 from the hours of 8-11 pm. They said Ukrainian border authorities then asked everyone waiting in line to cross to get back into their cars and turn off all lights. People said they saw several signal rockets in the sky. He emphasized that there were only rumors at that point, and that some people at the scene refused to talk. Then a notice to Russian forces in Crimea began to circulate on social media. This notice, said to be signed by Sergei Abisov, head of the Interior Ministry, said five (not four) armed men were being sought wearing Russian military uniforms in the area of Armyansk. But it was thought this notice could be part of exercises. Mikhail Samus, a Ukrainian military expert, said that these signs appeared to be preparation to exercises titled “Caucasus 2016” which are to take place in the South Federal District in September. He said that offensive operations in the direction of Ukraine would be tested. “We know that now Russians are increasing military groups around our country, so they may attack at any moment,” he said. That was all back on August 8. Adding to the alarm were the sightings of Russian military convoys that same day: Krym.Realii uploaded a video of the social media sightings of Russian convoys they had collected.

The Crimean Human Rights group uploaded a video they said was a Russian military convoy going through Kerch. The video was uploaded on August 7 at 11:33 UTC, but the title of the video suggests that it was filmed on August 6. The Russian government says that Ukrainian agents attempted to conduct a terrorist attack (on the night of August 6-7) so the timing of this video is important. A reverse-image search of frames from the video returns a post to the Russian social network Vkontakte (VK) on August 7, at 11:08 AM, with this description (translated by The Interpreter): According to reports from eyewitnesses, on August 6 at the train station there was an entire train with military armor, depo.us reported, citing the Crimean Human Rights Group. That same night a large column of Russian military vehicles passed through residential districts at the exit from the city. The photo and video were made at the Kerch railroad station on August 6 in the evening and at the exit from Kerch. Another video posted on Twitter also reported a convoy running through Kerch. Text on the video uploaded to YouTube said the convoy was “headed to the ferry” but there was no evidence that it was headed toward Dzhankoy, and the direction of the armor in the video is inland. We geolocated the video from the signs on a green building passed by the armored vehicles and local information about ship repair facilities.

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YouTube Керчь БТРы в сторону переправы день второй… Details… →

The same location can be seen on Yandex street view here.

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This video says “Kerch BTRS Headed Toward Ferry.”

This video is labelled “Russian Bastions Taken to Starokrymsky Training Range,” Bastions meaning the Bastion-P costal defense missile system, a formidable weapons system designed to sink surface ships. It shows a column of support, diggers, fuel, signals, and BTRs heading to a training range which is west of Feodosia.

There does appear to be Bastion missiles in this video and radars in both these last two videos. This screen grab from the video can be compared to images of the Bastion P system posted to the Army Recognition website.

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What appears to be the radar truck for the Bastion P coastal missile system:

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This video posted on Twitter reportedly came from an area near the Kerch ferry, and showed MTLB’s being ferried.

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A photo also showed armored vehicles at a train station with the sign “Kerch”.

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It was not clear why Russia was amassing the military hardware if the purpose was invasion, as the armor would have to cross the Strait of Kerch and there are easier routes for such an attack. But we reasoned that it could be posturing or a decoy for an offensive elsewhere. Fighting has been heavier than usual in the Donbass. Another troubling report came from a Sevastopol maritime news site, Meridian. According to that report, the Russian military was taking submarines out of their berths in Sevastopol and blocking the channel. The local administration announced that regular passenger boat traffic was halted from 10:00 am to 13:00 on August 9 and military exercises were announced. Later an official told journalists that not all the channel was closed, only the route from Artbukhta to Radiogorka. Meridian said they were unable to get any commentary from the military as to where the submarines were going or what their purpose was. At a time like this when there are lots of alarming reports and numerous rumors amplified on social media, every action by the Russian military begins to loom up as a possible sign of an invasion of Ukraine. A blogger wrote of the alarm of citizens in the naval town of Severomorsk which was covered for 3 days in smoke.

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