

With the Tyrod Taylor trade in the rear view mirror and free agency upon us in under 24 hours, the buzz around the Buffalo Bills taking a QB in the draft has hit fevered pitch levels. Opinions on what the Bills should, or realistically can do, are abundant as fans and observers weigh the risks and rewards of trading up into the top 3 for a QB, conducting a less mild trade into the teens, staying put and taking one at 21 or filling other needs and snagging a decent prospect in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. In pursuit of some understanding of the risks I decided to break down and analyze the success, failure or somewhere in between-ness of NFL QBs drafted in the top 3, those drafted in the 1st round but outside the top, and QBs taken in rounds 2 and 3. To make this little project somewhat manageable, as fair as it possibly could be, and informative I gave myself some guidelines so I would know where to start:

This is 1983 draft on. I wasn't sure where I should start but I knew I didn't want to look at every draft class ever. In the spirit of what the Bills are trying to accomplish I decided that I should begin from where we last succeeded in drafting a franchise QB. Jim Kelly was the line I would draw. Thus, the study looks at every draft from Jim's to 2016. I would only look at QBs in three groups: Top 3 selections, 1st round picks outside that top 3, and rounds 2 and 3 combined. I decided that would be it for one main reason - besides less work : if the Bills answer is to draft someone in rounds 4 or later than they are not serious about addressing the position. We will assume they are. I would break down draft choices into three groups for purposes of drawing some conclusions. In my effort to avoid the arguments that often spiral off the rails on pure semantics I decided to assign these groups "color" labels. "Gold" labels would be given to QBs drafted that showed they could put together lengthy careers in the pros as a starter and include all the way up to Hall of Famers. It's a wide label but given how subjective this particular part is I wanted to be inclusive to avoid as much "poz" bias as I could. "Green" labels would be given to any QB drafted that proved they could pull together a long career that wasn't quite starting caliber, or a mix of starting and backup duties or QBs that perhaps in different situations, injury luck, or environments would have been "Gold". Aka, "Green" are guys that don't quite fall into "Gold" but don't quite fall into the next category.... "Red". "Red" label is given to guys who could not make it in the league. The washouts. Short careers. QBs drafted that didn't last in the NFL and were given up on for whatever reason you can imagine. In short. A true, pure form of The Bust. Again, I tried to do this as objectively as I could but subjectivity is going to creep into this discussion. Every last Rumbler will disagree with a few places I have put names. For these purposes though, understanding no one will ever agree completely, I think it serves as a decent baseline. I had to project out the career arcs on the more recent QBs. Given how wildly successful and unsuccessful these newer QBs have been that didn't prove too hard but some names like Marcus Mariota may draw some disagreement. Again, I tried to be fair. History will certainly prove me wrong on some of these guys as will unpredictable events. I am aware it isn't perfect but it is what it is. When you look at playoff or Super Bowl appearance numbers please be aware that where applicable I awarded playoff games and Super Bowls to both starter and his backup. I tried at first to make it case by case specific because none of the situations were the same but that just made it too easy for my personal biases to come through. So for example, both Frank Reich and Jim Kelly have a Super Bowl appearance just as Nick Foles and Carson Wentz were awarded Super Bowl victories. It only seemed fair, and less time consuming, to just make that the rule. I came in with no conclusion I sought to prove. I've had some interesting conversations on here with lots of smart Rumblers about QB draft slots and I just wanted to see what came out in the wash if I actually took a deep dive. Plus, there was just too much information for me to plot out where it would end up. This took a while. Luckily, I have lots of beer. And with lots of beer a man can do anything he sets his mind to. (Probably a good time to invite you to grab a beer or two, this could be a long read). Lastly, I am aware that this is not a hard and fast rule but generally speaking, when someone like Matt Ryan is taken in the top 3, most NFL scouts would have made the same pick if they were in position to take the first QB off the board and needed a QB. This rule doesn't always hold true of course but generally speaking, if a team is spending a top 3 pick or trading up with a ton of assets into the top 3 they are very sure the guy is a can't miss prospect. Guys taken in other parts of the first round are for the most part, considered very good prospects but not someone worth selling the farm for, or else a front office would have and moved into the top 3. Guys taken in the 2nd and 3rd are a bit below that. So let's see how the NFL's scouts measure up over the last 35 years of data.

Alright well , here we go:

Top 3: Since 1983 there have been 33 QBs taken in the top 3 of the draft.

Of those 21, or 63.6% of the QBs selected, were "Gold" QBs. Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair, Drew Bledsoe, Jeff George, Troy Aikman, Vinny Testaverde, Jim Everett, and John Elway.

5 of those 33 were "Green" QBs, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin III, Sam Bradford, Vince Young, and David Carr. Put in percentages, 15.2% of QBs taken in the top 5 are this type of signal caller's career.

7 out of the 33, or 21.2%, are "Red". Jamarcus Russell, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf and Rick Mirer.

The QBs taken in the top 3 since 1983 have appeared in 19 Super Bowls and won 10 of them. They have brought their teams to 178 playoff games and been voted (not appeared, I dont play that, I mean legit "Tom Brady" style voted) into 76 Pro Bowls. They have taken home 9 MVP awards, 3 Rookie of the Year Honors, 4 Offensive Player of the Year Awards, have 9 First Team All Pro Awards, and 2 Comeback Player of the Year Awards.

1st round: Since the 1983 draft, there have been 45 QBs taken in the first round but outside the top 3.

Of those, 15 were "Gold" label QBs, or 33.3%. Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper, Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Chris Miller, Jim Harbaugh, Jim Kelly, Ken O'Brien, and Dan Marino.

7 out of 45, 15.5%, were "Green" QBs - Teddy Bridgewater, Mark Sanchez, Jason Campbell, Byron Leftwich, Rex Grossman, Tommy Maddox, and Tony Eason.

23 out of 45 - 51.1% - of the QBs taken in the 1st round outside the top were "Red" label. Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Josh Freeman, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey, Cade McNown, Jim Druckenmiller, David Klingler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, Chuck Long, Todd Blackledge.

These QBs taken in the 1st round but not as "can't miss" prospects did not fare as well as their "can't miss" brethren. 156 playoff appearances, 44 Pro Bowls, 14 Super Bowl Appearances, 5 Super Bowl wins, 0 MVPs, 1 Rookie of the Year, 1 Offensive Player of the Year, 6 1st Team All Pros and 5 Comeback Players of the Year.

2nd and 3rd round: During this window there were a whopping 76 QBs taken in rounds 2 and 3.

Of those 76, we had 17 "Gold" label QBs, good for 22.4%. Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Matt Schaub, Drew Brees, Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, Tony Banks, Kordell Stewart, Brett Favre, Neil O'Donnell, Chris Chandler, Randall Cunningham, Boomer Esiason, Jeff Hostetler, Jay Schroeder.

There were 10 or 13.2% "Green" labels, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick, Chad Henne, Kellen Clemens, Travaris Jackson, Josh McCown, Charlie Batch, Bubby Brister, and Frank Reich.

There were 49 out of 76 "Red" labels, or 64.5%. Christian Hackenberg, Cody Kessler, Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Brock Osweiler, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Pat White, Brian Brohm, Kevin O'Connell, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Charliie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosoppo, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Shaun King, Brock Huard, Jonathan Quinn, Bobby Hoying, Todd Collins, Stoney Case, Eric Zeier, Billy Joe Hobert, Matt Blundin, Tony Sacca, Browning Nagle, Tom Hodson, Peter Tom Willis, Mike Elkins, Billy Joe Tolliver, Anthony Dilweg, Erik Wilhelm, Cody Carlson, Jack Trudeau, Hugh Millen, and Rick McIvor.

Between them, these 2nd and 3rd rounders produced 6 Super Bowl wins off 13 appearances, 131 playoff games, 52 Pro Bowls, 4 MVPs, 0 Rookies of the Year, 4 Offensive Players of the Year, 6 All Pro's, and 2 Comeback Players of the Year.

What Does It All Mean?

Of course, that is what the comments section is for so I'll just kick off what it means to me personally. First, it would appear that NFL scouts generally, as one massive blob, know what they are doing at QB. That seems to be evident going back 35 years. This was somewhat of a surprise, and hence why I made it the title. 63.6% of the QBs taken in the top 3 are "Gold" QBs, guys that at the very worst can make long careers as starters. So when scouts see a "Can't Miss" guy it may be an exaggeration but its still a strong statement. The drop off after the top 1 or 2 guys are gone in any given draft is quite large. It is at 63.6% for the top 3, falls all the way down to 33.3% for the rest of the first round, and bottoms out at 22.4% in rounds 2 and 3. The flip side is even more startling to me, as it highlights the risk of not selecting the very first QB of the group. When a team's scouts get to take the guy or guys they believe are the very best their chance of a "Red" QB, a total bust who washes out of the league, is actually very low - just 21.2% for the top 3. That risk skyrockets to a whopping 51.1% - over half - of the QBs taken in the rest of round 1. Even scarier it pushes up to 64.5% in rounds 2 and 3. What's more incredible is that all of the QBs taken in the top 3 since 1983 hav a combined 76 Pro Bowls. This is still more than both the rest of the rest of the first round and the 2nd/3rd round groups despite their having many more QBs selected. In the top 3, you get about 2.3 Pro Bowls per QB selected. In the rest of the first it's just 0.98 per selection and just 0.68 in rounds 2 and 3. And of course, the 9 MVP's in the top 3 compared to the zero MVPs in the rest of round 1 since 1983 is eye popping. My first conclusion here is that when NFL scouts identify the top target in the draft, they are very frequently correct that this individual is unlikely to fail (21.2%) and likely to succeed (63.6%). It also means that individual is very much more likely to succeed than the other QBs teams deem "good enough" for first round selection, as they fail at rate that is high (51.5%) and succeed at a rate that is low (33.3%).

My second conclusion here is that getting a "Gold" quarterback can do wonders for a team. Given one picks in the top 3 if they are a horrendous team or if they are giving up the farm to go up and get it and therefore sacrificing assets to build up that team, the team success numbers between the top 3 and the rest of the 1st and 2nd and 3rd shows just how strongly one can expect team success with a "Gold" QB. Notice how just 33 QBs in the top 3 led their teams to a total 178 playoff games. That is good for 5.39 playoff games per QB taken in the top 3, including the "Red's". Those teams have also won 10 Super Bowls and been to 19 Super Bowls, good for 0.6 Super Bowl appearances for every top 3 QB selected. In the rest of the first round the 45 QBs there only produced 156 playoff games, or 3.47 playoff games per QB, and while they appeared in 14 Super Bowls they only won 5. That is still just half the Super Bowl appearances of their top 3 peers at just 0.3 Super Bowls per QB picked. The numbers drop even further into rounds 2 and 3, with just 131 playoff games for 76 QBs, or 1.72 playoff games per QB picked, and just 0.17 Super Bowl appearances per QB picked (13 total). These numbers surprised me because I would have expected the teams picking in the top 3 to do poorly relatively speaking. But once they get their QB, they start entering the playoffs and they start competing for Super Bowls. The lesson here is that a QB that is "Gold" is good enough to make a bottom 3 team a playoff team and is worth a team giving up the farm to get up there to select him.

And so....many beers later and with my wife questioning my sanity my ultimate thought from all this is this.....if the Buffalo Bills have identified somebody as the can't miss prospect of this draft they should go up and get him. And this is a good class. If the Bills believe that Josh Rosen or Josh Allen are the top QB, it looks like they are probably right. And if the Bills believe that Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield are the top dog in this class, given how cleanly successful NFL scouts have been over 35 years at the top, its fair to presume that other team's scouts see the same thing. If they sit back and wait to trade up into the teens or at 21 while other teams get to pick from the top, we are looking at a much riskier prospect. And likely not the guy we had pegged as the best. Even more, if we wait till rounds 2 and 3, our chances for success will plummet.

So what say you, any Rumblers who were able to stomach that obnoxiously long and over-wordy fanpost? What does this mean to you if anything?