When Britain heads to the polls on Thursday, the economy may matter less than it did in the last election but, according to YouGov, it is still near the top of voters’ concerns. A question many will be asking is: whose victory would be the best for the economy? Given the acute uncertainty surrounding this election finding an answer can be difficult..

The short answer is the Liberal Democrats offer the best combination of domestic policies and a commitment to revoke Brexit, which economists agree would be better for the economy than leaving the EU, irrespective of what kind of exit and free trade agreements were struck.

Consultancy Oxford Economics estimates that the Lib Dems’ spending plans would result in much faster GDP growth than what can be expected under the Conservatives, and the impact would be similar to the effect of Labour’s policies.

Remaining in the EU would avoid the costs of leaving. The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics has calculated that, a decade after Brexit, the costs would range from a £1,300 reduction in the average annual income to a £2,500 hit. The four scenarios the centre has analysed, starting with the most benign one, are: soft Brexit, with the UK remaining in the EU’s single market but not its customs union; leaving the single market but staying in the customs union; Boris Johnson’s deal, in which we leave both and agree a free trade agreement with the EU similar to the EU-Canada deal; and hard Brexit where future UK-EU relations are based on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

However, given current polling, the Lib Dems will not win anything near a majority in parliament. How, then, do the Tories’ and Labour’s economic plans compare?

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On the domestic front, there appears to be less of a consensus among economists on which party would do more to lift growth.

The Tories have promised a much smaller increase in government spending than Labour, but the latter would also impose much higher taxes on the private sector, which, according to Oxford Economics, would dent activity. It says that taken together, the numbers mean GDP growth would average 1.6 per cent a year over the next five years under the Tories, compared with 1.9 per cent under Labour.

Capital Economics, another consultancy, agrees that the economy would get a larger fiscal boost under Labour but also points out that it would come with some “business-unfriendly” policies that would reduce corporate profits. Capital Economics concludes that the policies of a Labour (majority or minority) government would be less good for the economy than those of a Tory-led government. Under Labour, GDP growth could run at 1 to 1.5 per cent, it says.

There is more clarity on what a victory by either party would mean for Brexit. For anyone interested in the economic consequences of their vote on Thursday, that is fortunate - because, to quote Capital Economics, “the channel through which the election will have the biggest impact on the economy is clearly via the effect on the path to and final form of Brexit”.

The biggest danger here is hard Brexit. That could happen on 31 January if a Tory minority government or a Tory coalition is unable to get the existing withdrawal agreement through parliament, or at the end of next year if a Tory majority results in Johnson’s exit deal passing, ushering in a transition period, but if there is then no free trade agreement with the EU to switch to.

Out of the two possibilities, a crashing out from the bloc in year’s time is more likely as polling points to a Tory majority. The party has pledged not to extend the transition period past December 2020, with the aim of clinching a trade deal with our largest trading partner by then. But there is wide agreement that is a very long shot indeed as it usually takes the EU years to agree trade deals.

In contrast, hard Brexit would be all but impossible under a Labour-led government. The party has promised to negotiate a new withdrawal agreement within six months of coming to power - also extremely ambitious, it must be said - and to put it to a referendum alongside the option to remain in the EU. Labour’s deal would aim to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU and seek “close alignment” with the single market.

In its manifesto, Labour specifically ruled out a no-deal Brexit - a version of hard Brexit, in which there would be no transition period and the UK would automatically switch to WTO terms with the EU. The latter arrangement has been described by the Lib Dems as “so bad that almost no other country anywhere in the world trades on that basis”.

What can house prices tell us about the economy?

Even if the Tories manage to avert hard Brexit by striking a free trade deal with the EU, according to the ranking by the Centre for Economic Performance this outcome would still be more economically damaging than the kind of post-Brexit relationship Labour wants to negotiate.

All this leads me to conclude that, to put it bluntly, the economy must be saved from the Tories and their Brexit policies. Admittedly, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour, the most viable alternative, is not exactly a darling of economists and investors. But his radical agenda that they fear so much would take at least a decade to implement in its entirety. So Labour would have to be re-elected and they would also need a majority to push through some of the more controversial policies such as large-scale nationalisations. Those are high hurdles to clear.

Labour could also be voted out and its domestic policies reversed. Reversing hard Brexit, on the other hand, would not be entirely within our control as we would depend on the EU to agree a closer trade relationship.