Levin appears to have sizable lead on Lipton in 9th District race

Todd Spangler | Detroit Free Press

WASHINGTON – Andy Levin, who is running to replace his dad, U.S. Rep. Sandy Levin, D-Royal Oak, appears to have a strong lead heading into next week's Democratic primary, according to a new automated poll of voters in the district.

EPIC-MRA of Lansing did the poll for the Free Press, surveying 730 likely and active voters in Michigan 9th Congressional District who said they plan to vote in the Aug. 7 Democratic primary or already have done so by absentee ballot. The poll was done last Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Levin of Bloomfield Township, who held roles in former Gov. Jennifer Granholm's administration and has a background as a union organizer, had the support of 49 percent of those surveyed compared with 26 percent for his chief rival, former state Rep. Ellen Lipton of Huntington Woods. Attorney Martin Brook was third with 3 percent support.

There was still a large number of undecided voters, with 22 percent saying they were unsure or hadn't made up their minds. When undecided respondents were prompted a second time to make a choice, however, Levin's support went to 55 percent, compared with 31 percent for Lipton and 4 percent for Brook. Ten percent remained undecided.

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The 9th District includes much of southern Macomb County, including Warren, Eastpointe, St. Clair Shores and Mt. Clemens. It then stretches west into Oakland County, covering Royal Oak and Ferndale before narrowing to a band that curls through Beverly Hills, Franklin and the area north of Birmingham.

While little independent polling has been done in the district, the poll largely tracks with conventional wisdom in the race that Levin — who has drawn huge amounts of traditional Democratic support in the race and has wide name recognition — was considered the front-runner, even in a year when female candidates like Lipton have made huge gains.

Whoever wins the primary next Tuesday will be considered the likely winner in November, since the district is predominately Democratic. Businesswoman Candius Stearns is the only Republican running in that party's primary.

While the poll shows strong support for Levin, however, it offers only a snapshot of the race at a specific point in time and all polls — particularly primary polls, where turnout is typically far smaller and more erratic than general elections — at times can vary widely from actual results. Automated polls also do not include any cellphone calls and can have low response rates, though EPIC-MRA began only with numbers for voters who have participated in primary elections in the past.

The poll — looking at groups after the second questioning of undecided voters — showed majority support for Levin in both Macomb and Oakland counties as well as along racial and gender lines in the district.

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.