Our panel of experts gauges the probability that the United States or Israel will strike the Islamic Republic in the next year.

The chances of conflict with Iran have held steadily at 40 percent according to the The Atlantic's Iran War Dial.

We've assembled a high profile team of experts from the policy world, academia, and journalism to periodically predict the odds of hostilities, including: Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Golnaz Esfandiari, Azar Gat, Jeffrey Goldberg, Amos Harel, Ephraim Kam, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Matthew Kroenig, John Limbert, Valerie Lincy, James Lindsay, Marc Lynch, Gary Milhollin, Trita Parsi, Paul Pillar, Karim Sadjadpour, Kenneth Timmerman, Shibley Telhami, Stephen Walt, and Robin Wright. For more on the Iran War Dial and the panelists, visit our FAQ page

The odds of war steadily declined in the spring, but have ticked upward since June's figure of 36 percent.

The last week has been a tale of three speeches at the United Nations.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave his swansong address as Iranian president before he retires next summer. Ahmadinejad claimed that his country was endangered by "uncivilized Zionists," and "the self-proclaimed centers of power who have entrusted themselves to the devil." But there were fewer explicit threats against Israel and truther-style 9/11 conspiracy theories than usual. One of our panelists, Karim Sadjadpour, believes that Ahmadinejad is "positioning himself to be kind of a global political figure, the Bill Clinton of the Islamist anti-imperialist world."