Simulated results for the 2017 Club Nationals tournament (Men’s and Women’s). See each team’s probability of reaching different stages of the tournament.

With seedings released yesterday for USA Ultimate’s Club Nationals in Sarasota, let the speculation begin.

Using my Elo ratings, I simulated the tournament determining probabilities for each team advancing to different stages. In addition, I posted win probabilities for each pool play game. More on the methodologies at the end of the article for those interested. There are flaws in the Elo rating system so the simulations may not match our intuition perfectly, but I think they at least pass the sniff test. As always, let me know what you think.

Men’s

The Elo ratings are much tighter for the Men’s division compared to the Women’s. Therefore, we see a handful of teams with good chances of winning the tournament or making a deep run. The top 6 seeds at the tournament are a cut above based on Elo ratings.

Pool A looks particularly strong due to the discrepancy in Doublewide’s Elo rating compared to their USAU seeding. If you accept this, then Pool D is going to have rough cross-over match-ups and Sub Zero has the worst expectations at the tournament. All in all, there is a lot of uncertainty heading into the Men’s tournament this year.