All you need to know before handing in those brackets.

The chances of someone — a friend, the guy at the end of the bar, the color commentator — announcing the phrase, “Anything can happen in March,” is near 100%. This is said with authority, as if this is new, profound information about the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. There is truth to this statement, too. Although a number one seed has never been ousted by a 16-seed in the first round (odds suggest that will eventually happen), 15-seeds have beaten 2-seeds; 14th-seeded teams have eliminated 3rd-seeded teams in four of the last five season; 13th-seeded teams have been down as of the last two-years, having gone 0–8 versus their four-seed counterparts, but were 3–1 against the spread last March.

In short, whoever says that anything can happen in March is typically proven to be right. Upsets happen with almost absolute frequency. In a game like basketball, where an individual can win or lose a game seemingly by themselves, it’s part of the magic of March. It’s fun to watch a low-seeded team exceed expectations and play great basketball for a weekend, upsetting two teams that many people had going at least a round or two longer in their brackets.

The wizardry of a March run, however, comes with an expiration date. Sure, teams like VCU and Butler made their Cinderella runs; Yes, South Carolina needed an SEC Tournament win and a spectacular set of weekends to make it to last year’s Final Four in Glendale, Arizona. Situations like this ruins brackets and office pools, but increase the fun of the experience. But, in most cases, that leads to pretty lousy basketball on the game’s brightest stage, so an expiration date is exactly what’s needed. While predictability in top-level athletics can be boring (see: the New England Patriots being in the Super Bowl seemingly every season), these teams know what it’s like not only to be at the dance, but what the wear, when to get there, and what will ultimately bring them success.

Before you overthink it and fill out your bracket, read the 2018 NCAA Basketball Tournament Facts:

Coaching matters, so bet on the coach as much as the team:

Of the 8 billion living people on this planet, there are only 20 who have coached a division one men’s basketball team to an NCAA championship. Just nine of those coaches currently coach a division one basketball team. That means, if you don’t play for Mike Krzyzewski, Bill Self, John Calipari, Tom Izzo, Roy Williams, Jay Wright, Kevin Ollie, Tubby Smith, or Jim Boeheim, you’re unlikely to win a championship (and we can definitely eliminate Ollie and Boeheim, right?).

In the past decade, all but one (2012) Final Fours have included at least one of the following coaches: Williams, Krzyzewski, Calipari, Izzo, Wright. 2012 included Pitino and, well, that’s another article altogether.

Also consider this, tournament staples Izzo, Calipari, Self, and (technically) Pitino have just one title each. Winning a national championship is really fucking hard. More, just four programs won multiple titles with the same coach: Duke (5), North Carolina (3), Connecticut (3) & Florida (2). Only two of those programs — Duke and North Carolina — currently employ the coach that led those victorious squads. Coaching is the most important element of winning championships. Or is it?

Program prestige means a lot:

Maybe even more so than coaching, though that’d hard to prove. Those people who don’t watch a second of college basketball all season then tend to do well in the office pool because they pick based on names they recognize? They’re usually right. Since the 1985 shift from 32 to 64 teams, Kansas, Kentucky, Connecticut, and Villanova have all won multiple titles with different coaches. A fact that may surprise you: Kentucky’s three titles in that span came under the direction of three different coaches. Can you name them?

In fact, just 17 programs out of 351 have won titles since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985; 9 have won just once, which means eight schools have won multiple titles. What does this mean, statistically-speaking? The odds are slightly favorable to bet Arkansas, UCLA, Arizona, UNLV, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Syracuse, or Maryland; Better to choose Louisville (kind of), Kansas, Villanova, or Florida; Great to bet that UConn can run the table; Even greater to have North Carolina making a deep run; Best to bet Duke. This is just statistically, of course.

Oh, and if you’re not in a major conference, get out:

Just eight conferences have won National Titles. This means, don’t bet on a team from the following conferences to win a national title: America East, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Atlantic Sun, Patriot, Big Sky, South South, Southern, Southland, Big West, SWAC, Colonial, Summit, Conference USA, Sun Belt, Horizon, West Coast, Ivy, WAC, or MAAC.

Pick upsets, but not too many:

Sure, Murray State or Loyola-Chicago or South Dakota State can shoot the lights out and knock off whomever they’re playing in round one. Maybe they even stay hot for the weekend. Maybe they’re playing close to home. Whatever the reason. Let’s not get too crazy and predict these teams to not just make that round one or two upset, but to advance the following weekend too. It’s very cool to announce after a #12 over #5 upset that it was correctly predicted on your bracket, but you’re going to look like a fool when that 12-seed loses by 25 two days later.

The past (sometimes) matters …:

Eight times, a runner up or Final Four team from the previous year won the next national title: Duke (runners up in 1990; Winner in 1991); Kentucky (runners up in 1997; Winner in 1998); Michigan State (Final Four in 1999; Won in 2000); Maryland (Final Four in 2001; Won in 2002); North Carolina (Final Four in 2008; Champs in 2009); Kentucky (Final Four in 2011; Won in 2012); Louisville (Final Four in 2012; Winners in 2013); North Carolina (runners up in 2016; Won in 2017). Last year’s three finalists: South Carolina, Gonzaga, and Oregon. Reaching the Final Four the previous year has been an inconsistent harbinger, at best. Don’t be suckered into thinking any of those four teams will return, but don’t be shocked if they do.

… But very rarely for the champs:

The Tar Heels, as last year’s winner, face an uphill battle. Only two teams since the 1985 expansion (Duke in 1991 and 1992; Florida in 2006 and 2007) have repeated as national champs. Even more harrowing, the previous year’s title winner hasn’t advanced past the Sweet 16 since that second Gators team.

Five never stays alive:

The odds on betting a #12 seed in the first round are pretty solid. 11 out of the last 20 12/5 games have been won outright by the 12 seed. However, that’s not the only precaution. A five seed has never won the National Title. Only six all time have reached the Final Four.

It’s a team game (except when it isn’t):

The narrative that the college game is a team game bereft of stars is not always true. Sure, coaching matters, as does program prestige, but 25 of the last 32 national champions have had an All-American on their roster. On the other hand, the national player of the year has only been national champ four times: Danny Manning (Kansas, 1988), Christian Laettner (Duke, 1992), Shane Battier (Duke, 2001), Anthony Davis (Kentucky, 2012).

So where does this leave us?

I guess you’ll have to wait until tomorrow.