House Republicans told themselves 2018 would be better after getting swamped by Democratic cash in 2017. But Republican incumbents are actually in worse financial shape now than at the end of last year.

A whopping 43 House Republicans raised less money than Democratic challengers in the first three months of 2018 — nearly the same number of stragglers the GOP had at the end of last year, according to POLITICO’s analysis of the latest Federal Election Commission filings. An overlapping group of 16 Republican incumbents already have less cash on hand than Democratic challengers, up from the end of 2017, despite hopes that tax reform would open more donor wallets.


The fundraising totals are just the latest indicator of a November nightmare developing for Republicans: a toxic stew of poor presidential popularity, intense Democratic enthusiasm, and a chunk of incumbents whose FEC disclosures show they don’t understand how much trouble they could be in for in this political environment.

“The members who are getting outraised at this stage of the election cycle are the ones who present the biggest risk to the Republican majority,” said Ken Spain, a Republican consultant who served as the National Republican Congressional Committee’s communications director in 2010. “Fundraising is an outgrowth of intensity, so I think this tells you that Republicans are clearly swimming upstream in a challenging election cycle.”

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The outraised incumbents include some of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country, like Reps. Dana Rohrabacher in California, Jason Lewis in Minnesota and Rod Blum in Iowa. But they also include Republicans who may not have expected to face tough races a year ago but have suddenly found themselves facing energetic and well-financed opponents, like the North Carolina duo of Robert Pittenger and Ted Budd.

It’s a mirror image of this time in 2010, seven months before Republicans picked up 63 House seats during President Barack Obama’s first term. At this point in the 2010 election cycle, 35 Democratic incumbents were outraised by Republican challengers, and more than a third lost their races in November.

Some incumbents “still haven’t gotten the memo,” said Chris LaCivita, a Republican strategist. “Members, sometimes, get lost in this perception that everyone in the district knows how great they’re doing. And then they’re surprised on Election Day when they lose.”

And for some, it might be too late to turn things around: “Key decisions are being made right now on where money will be spent this cycle, and I’d be pretty worried if I were one of these members,” said one top Republican strategist, granted anonymity to discuss party strategy. “Some people just can’t be saved.”

The Congressional Leadership Fund — the super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan — this week announced plans to spend $38 million on TV ads across 20 districts this fall. But the first round of reservations skipped over almost all of the battleground races featuring Republican incumbents who have already fallen behind opponents in cash, like Rohrabacher and Virginia Rep. Tom Garrett.

“It’s inexcusable for an incumbent to be outraised,” said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. “We’re not investing in any more Rick Saccones” — the GOP’s Pennsylvania special election nominee, who was widely outraised by Democratic victor Conor Lamb.

CLF, which raised a record-breaking $66 million in 2017, and the NRCC will be able to shore up vulnerable Republicans with their own strong fundraising. But helping struggling members “takes away from offensive opportunities,” LaCivita said.

“Over the years, too many members have gotten increasingly reliant on third parties and outside groups to save them, and less dependent on themselves, and that’s a problem,” he added.

Party officials acknowledged that an energized Democratic base topped some Republican incumbents, but pointed out that some members outraised by opponents are in districts far from battleground territory, like Iowa Rep. Pete King and Texas Rep. Brian Babin, where President Trump won by 47 points in 2016.

The Republicans also stressed that Democrats will be forced to spend money on bruising primaries, leaving them “broke, battered and unelectable in national Democrats’ most sought after races,” said NRCC spokesman Jesse Hunt.

Sixteen House Republicans trail Democratic opponents in cash. Several of them, including Rep. John Faso, are in some of the most competitive districts in the country. | Mike Groll/AP Photo

The generic ballot has also recently narrowed, which Republicans credit to passing tax reform late last year and a strong economic environment. A Washington Post/ABC News poll found Democrats’ edge narrowed to 4 points, dropping by half since January.

But tax reform, which Republicans hoped would boost fundraising this quarter and get more incumbents back on level terms with challengers, hasn’t necessarily transformed into extra cash for candidates.

“It was as an excuse for [last quarter], but that only worked then, and now we’re running out of excuses,” said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster.

Former New York Rep. Thomas Reynolds, who led the NRCC from 2002 to 2006, said tax reform hasn’t “reached the candidate-level fundraising. But I’m sure it has at the RNC, at the NRCC and at other outside groups.”

“Republicans need to stay focused on selling their biggest accomplishment, which will help the overall atmospherics for them,” Reynolds said.

Plenty of Republican incumbents running in perennial battleground seats continue to post strong fundraising. Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) and Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) both raised nearly $1 million in districts that Hillary Clinton won handily in 2016.

“When I was the political director at the RNC in 2006, our incumbents in the toughest districts survived,” said Mike DuHaime, a Republican consultant based in New Jersey. “It was the second- and third-tier members who got swept away because they waited too long.”

And many Republicans, elected in conservative waves in 2010 and 2014, are running into political headwinds for the first time.

“This is a good jolt to these incumbents that they have to raise more money because they’re in the races of their lives,” Bolger said. “A lot of Republicans in Congress haven’t seen this kind of political environment. But if they think they can run the same campaigns as they’ve done before, they’ll find out soon that’s not the case.”