by Aaron Schatz

Denver is still awesome and Jacksonville is still terrible, but Week 5 brought some interesting movement in the rest of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. A number of AFC teams dropped significantly: New England, San Diego, Tennessee, Miami, and especially Houston, which is now all the way down to 27th overall. Houston's big loss was San Francisco's big gain, as the 49ers leap back into the top ten.

Looking at the DAVE ratings, which combine performance so far in 2013 with our preseason projections, teams have settled into some pretty clear tiers this season:

THE FAVORITES: Denver and Seattle

Denver and Seattle THE CONTENDERS: Green Bay, New Orleans, Kansas City, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Chicago, New England, Cincinnati

Green Bay, New Orleans, Kansas City, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Chicago, New England, Cincinnati THE SPOILER: Carolina. Carolina is still tenth in DVOA and eighth in DAVE, but it's hard to consider the Panthers a contender given the coaching staff and its seemingly regression-proof inability to win close games. Also, with only four games played, the Panthers' high DVOA is heavily dependent on one single blowout win against the Giants. But they can really mess with the playoff outlook with games against San Francisco and New England, plus two games with New Orleans in the final four weeks.

Carolina. Carolina is still tenth in DVOA and eighth in DAVE, but it's hard to consider the Panthers a contender given the coaching staff and its seemingly regression-proof inability to win close games. Also, with only four games played, the Panthers' high DVOA is heavily dependent on one single blowout win against the Giants. But they can really mess with the playoff outlook with games against San Francisco and New England, plus two games with New Orleans in the final four weeks. THE LOSERS: Oakland, St. Louis, New York Giants

Oakland, St. Louis, New York Giants THE WORST TEAM THAT EVER WAS: Jacksonville

Jacksonville EVERYBODY ELSE: Everybody else

The most surprising result of the week might be the Bears moving from 11th to seventh after losing to New Orleans 26-18, while the Saints actually drop one spot. The DVOA ratings for this game really came out different from the final result. Chicago's single-game DVOA of 57.1% was actually the second highest of the entire week, behind San Francisco (64.9% DVOA against Houston). The Saints only come out with -15.6% DVOA.

Why did Chicago do so much better in DVOA? Well, the Bears actually were much better in yards per play as well, with 8.0 yards per play compared to just 5.3 for the Saints. Some of that is because of "meaningless" yards that didn't get Chicago into scoring position in time for the end of a half. Jay Cutler had 50 yards on three passes before halftime but the Bears ran out of time for a field-goal attempt, and then Cutler had another 21 yards on the final pass of the game. These passes still count in DVOA because they're still predictive when it comes to Chicago's pass offense in the future -- and the Bears would have ended up with the higher DVOA rating even without these four passes. Otherwise, there just seem to be a lot of little plays that ended up going the Saints' way. Chicago lost 43 yards to penalties, while the Saints lost only 10 yards. The Saints extended a drive at the end of the first half by going for it on fourth down and succeeding, and they ended up with a touchdown.

Also, for those wondering: Chicago's rating is higher than New Orleans' is low because of opponent adjustments, and because both teams were good on special teams.

WHO NEEDS BALANCE?

If you look closer at the ratings for offense and defense, you'll find some fascinating causes of imbalance between run and pass this year. Perhaps the most incredible imbalance belongs to the Kansas City defense, which moved into the top spot in defensive DVOA this week. The Chiefs lead the league in pass defense but rank just 27th in run defense DVOA. It sure seems like they've got a better run defense than that, right? Well, some of that is an issue of analyzing totals compared to efficiency. Because the Chiefs are 5-0, their opponents have been forced to give up on the run early in most games. Only New Orleans and Denver have faced fewer runs per game; of course, those are the other undefeated teams. Defensive DVOA looks at every play equally, rather than being an average of pass defense and run defense. The Chiefs have faced many more passes than runs, so that strong pass defense influences their total rating more than the few long runs they've given up.

Kansas City's first two opponents didn't have much success running the ball, but then again, Jacksonville hasn't had any success doing anything. The next two weeks, the Eagles and Giants had success running the ball on the Chiefs, before falling too far behind. Kansas City's run defense problems in this week's win over Tennessee were actually more an issue of stopping Ryan Fitzpatrick scrambles, which are included in rushing DVOA. Chris Johnson and Jackie Battle combined for just 55 yards on 16 carries -- 37 of those came on one run for Battle -- but Fitzpatrick had 51 yards on five scrambles.

Cian Fahey will surely be looking at this run/pass dichotemy in this week's Film Room column, where he will be looking at the scheme changes and talent upgrades that have contributed to Kansas City's huge defensive turnaround.

New Orleans and Indianapolis have similar splits to Kansas City. Both teams rank in the top seven for pass defense, and the bottom five for run defense. The New York Jets and Chicago Bears have the opposite issue. The Jets are far ahead of every other team with -42.4% run defense DVOA, but rank just 18th on pass defense. The Bears are second in run defense, and 19th in pass defense. Dallas, Denver, and Green Bay have also been much stronger against the run than against the pass.

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The splits are less pronounced on offense but are still pretty heavy. Even after Philip Rivers wasn't so great against Oakland, the Chargers rank second in pass offense behing Denver. However, they are just 22nd running the ball. New Orleans is currently fourth in pass offense DVOA but just 27th in run offense DVOA. The teams that go the other direction come from the Department of Duh: Minnesota (23rd passing, seventh rushing) and Carolina (29th passing, fourth rushing).

One other note regarding balance: There are some fun results when you look at schedule balance. San Francisco ranks fourth in schedule strength so far, and 31st in schedule strength remaining. On the other hand, four teams go from having a bottom ten schedule in the first five weeks to a top seven schedule in the final 12 weeks: Kansas City (32/6), New Orleans (24/3), Oakland (26/7), and St. Louis (31/1). Atlanta's schedule is also going to get tougher in the future. Yeah, things are not so great for the Falcons this year.

BEST AND WORST DVOA EVER WATCH

BEST TOTAL DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 5 x BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 5 x WORST TOTAL DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 5 x WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 5 Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA 1991 WAS 71.5% x 1999 WAS 54.1% x 2013 JAC -76.0% x 2002 HOU -64.8% 2007 NE 68.1% x 2013 DEN 52.2% x 2008 DET -69.8% x 2013 JAC -59.4% 1999 STL 62.1% x 2002 KC 46.3% x 2008 STL -65.1% x 2004 MIA -54.7% 2009 PHI 57.1% x 2007 NE 44.7% x 2009 OAK -63.7% x 2009 OAK -50.1% 2006 CHI 56.3% x 1998 DEN 44.0% x 1989 DAL -61.7% x 2001 WAS -49.3% 2009 NO 54.4% x 2000 STL 43.8% x 2001 WAS -61.4% x 2010 CAR -47.1% 1992 PHI 54.2% x 2007 IND 42.3% x 2005 SF -61.1% x 2005 SF -46.1% 1996 GB 53.5% x 2010 NE 41.4% x 2000 CIN -59.6% x 2005 MIN -44.1% 2013 DEN 51.3% x 2005 SD 40.7% x 1996 TB -55.8% x 1992 IND -40.2% 2001 PHI 49.8% x 2005 PIT 38.6% x 2005 HOU -55.1% x 2008 KC -39.3% 1998 DEN 48.0% x 2005 SEA 36.9% x 2008 KC -54.0% x 2010 ARI -39.3% 2005 PIT 47.4% x 2011 NE 36.9% x 2006 HOU -54.0% x 1996 STL -39.1%

There's one table missing after we ran five of these tables a week ago. After a positive Week 5 game on special teams, the New York Giants no longer rank among the worst special teams we've ever measured.

* * * * *

During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 5 are:

OLB Lance Briggs, CHI (Limited Edition): Six Defeats including two TFL and three tackles to prevent third-down conversions on receptions.

Six Defeats including two TFL and three tackles to prevent third-down conversions on receptions. RT Andre Smith, CIN: Helped Cincinnati gain 8.4 yards per carry on runs marked right tackle or right end.

Helped Cincinnati gain 8.4 yards per carry on runs marked right tackle or right end. CB Darius Butler, IND: Held Sidney Rice to one catch on eight yards; game-ending interception.

Held Sidney Rice to one catch on eight yards; game-ending interception. FS Charles Woodson, OAK: Interception, fumble return for a touchdown.

Interception, fumble return for a touchdown. SS Eric Berry, KC: Helped prevent Tennessee from completing a single deep pass (16+ yards through the air); also three tackles, two assists, and a PD.

Other players we considered this week who didn't make the cut: Ryan Allen, Adam Jones, Eric Reid, Brandon Spikes, Olivier Vernon, and Kyle Williams.

* * * * *

All 2013 stat pages are now updated, including snap counts and playoff odds. The FO Premium database will be updated later tonight.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through five weeks of 2013, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 50 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 27 percent of DAVE (40 percent for teams with only four games played).

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 51.3% 1 42.8% 1 5-0 52.2% 1 11.8% 25 10.9% 1 2 SEA 34.9% 2 31.3% 2 4-1 8.9% 9 -19.7% 2 6.3% 4 3 KC 29.4% 3 16.9% 5 5-0 1.1% 14 -19.9% 1 8.4% 2 4 IND 23.7% 5 15.6% 6 4-1 21.4% 4 -2.6% 17 -0.3% 18 5 NO 21.5% 4 18.0% 4 5-0 16.5% 6 -3.2% 16 1.9% 13 6 GB 15.6% 9 19.1% 3 2-2 27.7% 2 14.8% 28 2.7% 10 7 CHI 15.3% 11 10.9% 9 3-2 8.7% 10 -6.0% 15 0.6% 15 8 SF 13.5% 18 13.9% 7 3-2 4.0% 11 -10.5% 8 -1.0% 20 9 CIN 11.4% 15 9.9% 11 3-2 -4.3% 21 -12.1% 6 3.6% 8 10 CAR 9.2% 6 12.0% 8 1-3 -0.2% 16 -10.7% 7 -1.2% 22 11 BUF 8.0% 10 1.9% 15 2-3 -1.3% 18 -12.9% 5 -3.6% 27 12 NE 6.4% 7 10.8% 10 4-1 -6.5% 22 -6.3% 14 6.6% 3 13 DAL 4.8% 16 2.1% 14 2-3 15.3% 7 10.7% 23 0.2% 17 14 DET 3.9% 13 2.3% 13 3-2 2.8% 12 -2.2% 18 -1.1% 21 15 NYJ 2.1% 20 -0.3% 16 3-2 -16.2% 27 -13.2% 4 5.1% 5 16 TEN 1.3% 8 -3.8% 19 3-2 -0.7% 17 -9.0% 11 -6.9% 28 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 MIN -1.1% 21 -6.1% 23 1-3 0.6% 15 6.2% 19 4.6% 6 18 BAL -1.6% 23 2.7% 12 3-2 -14.8% 25 -9.0% 10 4.2% 7 19 SD -3.4% 12 -4.3% 20 2-3 23.4% 3 24.3% 32 -2.5% 26 20 ATL -3.9% 14 -1.6% 17 1-4 13.8% 8 18.2% 31 0.5% 16 21 PHI -4.0% 26 -3.1% 18 2-3 19.5% 5 15.7% 29 -7.8% 29 22 TB -5.9% 22 -5.7% 21 0-4 -23.4% 30 -18.9% 3 -1.4% 23 23 CLE -8.7% 24 -8.6% 26 3-2 -18.9% 29 -7.1% 13 3.1% 9 24 ARI -8.9% 27 -9.2% 27 3-2 -18.3% 28 -8.6% 12 0.7% 14 25 MIA -10.4% 19 -10.3% 28 3-2 -3.2% 20 9.6% 22 2.4% 11 26 PIT -10.9% 25 -6.3% 24 0-4 -2.4% 19 6.6% 20 -1.9% 24 27 HOU -14.0% 17 -8.6% 25 2-3 -13.6% 24 -9.2% 9 -9.6% 31 28 WAS -20.5% 28 -5.7% 22 1-3 2.8% 13 14.3% 27 -9.0% 30 29 OAK -21.7% 29 -20.3% 29 2-3 -8.8% 23 11.0% 24 -1.9% 25 30 STL -25.6% 30 -23.5% 30 2-3 -15.1% 26 12.7% 26 2.2% 12 31 NYG -46.1% 31 -33.1% 31 0-5 -25.1% 31 7.6% 21 -13.4% 32 32 JAC -76.0% 32 -61.0% 32 0-5 -59.4% 32 16.1% 30 -0.4% 19

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).