Freshman Reps Mac Rose (D-N.Y.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich) raised more than any other “toss-up” district incumbents in the second quarter of 2019. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

While the entire country will be a battleground for 2020 contenders vying for the White House, House seats in swing districts will determine if Democrats retain their foothold on Capitol Hill or Republicans regain their midterm losses.

Nineteen House incumbents –– 16 Democrats, two Republicans and an independent –– are considered at risk of losing their seats, according to Cook Political Report, which rates the seats as toss-ups. The report regularly ranks House seats on their likelihood to change party hands, breaking down races into solid, likely, lean and toss-up seats with the latter as the most likely to flip.

The following districts are considered toss ups by Cook as of July 8.

1 Party CPR Rating District Current Rep. Cash-on-Hand Total Q2 Receipts Total Q2 Disbursements Receipts from Small ( Percent of Total Receipts from Small ( Receipts from PACs Percent of Total Receipts from PACs Burn Rate Link to Filing 2 I R+6 MI-03 Justin Amash $201,201 $177,053 $109,306 $70,053 39.57% $1,000 0.56% 61.74% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/174/201907159150881174/201907159150881174.pdf 3 D R+8 GA-06 Lucy McBath $928,996 $580,458 $108,824 $146,880 25.30% $93,501 16.11% 18.75% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/048/201907159150823048/201907159150823048.pdf 4 D R+2 ME-02 Jared Golden $495,056 $273,529 $38,444 $50,741 18.55% $66,000 24.13% 14.05% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/280/201907159150818280/201907159150818280.pdf 5 D R+5 IL-14 Lauren Underwood $765,894 $713,481 $200,516 $120,660 16.91% $136,771 19.17% 28.10% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/920/201907159150821920/201907159150821920.pdf 6 D R+6 NM-02 Xochitl Torres Small $1,011,771 $620,535 $127,383 $84,831 13.67% $156,212 25.17% 20.53% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/443/201907159150759443/201907159150759443.pdf 7 D R+2 NJ-03 Andy Kim $969,809 $572,265 $105,710 $77,741 13.58% $111,730 19.52% 18.47% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/422/201907159151156422/201907159151156422.pdf 8 D R+6 VA-07 Abigail Spanberger $1,024,809 $695,882 $74,223 $77,565 11.15% $124,500 17.89% 10.67% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/834/201907159150814834/201907159150814834.pdf 9 D R+4 MI-08 Elissa Slotkin $1,085,273 $728,509 $91,397 $79,387 10.90% $93,071 12.78% 12.55% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/352/201907149150595352/201907149150595352.pdf 10 D R+10 OK-05 Kendra Horn $795,339 $582,670 $153,291 $63,299 10.86% $98,154 16.85% 26.31% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/401/201907159150873401/201907159150873401.pdf 11 D R+6 NY-22 Anthony Brindisi $770,855 $494,415 $115,864 $52,625 10.64% $173,204 35.03% 23.43% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/731/201907159151272731/201907159151272731.pdf 12 D D+1 IA-01 Abby Finkenauer $631,173 $434,322 $105,053 $44,123 10.16% $173,501 39.95% 24.19% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/370/201907159150860370/201907159150860370.pdf 13 D R+10 SC-01 Joe Cunningham $980,069 $613,901 $141,449 $61,212 9.97% $29,000 4.72% 23.04% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/929/201907159150810929/201907159150810929.pdf 14 D R+1 IA-03 Cindy Axne $840,766 $601,994 $109,989 $58,705 9.75% $166,700 27.69% 18.27% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/974/201907159150936974/201907159150936974.pdf 15 D R+3 VA-02 Elaine Luria $704,390 $536,591 $95,598 $45,484 8.48% $91,500 17.05% 17.82% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/461/201907159150711461/201907159150711461.pdf 16 D R+2 NY-19 Antonio Delgado $1,088,005 $669,308 $263,358 $54,245 8.10% $78,079 11.67% 39.35% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/037/201907149150597037/201907149150597037.pdf 17 D R+13 UT-04 Ben McAdams $643,939 $524,383 $163,878 $24,670 4.70% $163,100 31.10% 31.25% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/632/201907159151333632/201907159151333632.pdf 18 R R+1 TX-23 Will Hurd $712,941 $679,368 $402,481 $28,985 4.27% $260,187 38.30% 59.24% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/249/201907159151134249/201907159151134249.pdf 19 D R+3 NY-11 Max Rose $1,216,487 $799,074 $202,751 $29,445 3.68% $111,501 13.95% 25.37% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/702/201907159150858702/201907159150858702.pdf 20 R R+9 TX-24 Kenny Marchant $2,192,875 $509,570 $43,128 $0 0% $169,950 33.35% 8.46% https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/087/201907159151156087/201907159151156087.pdf 21 R R+9 GA-07 Open 22 D D+1 IA-02 Open 23 R R+7 NC-09 Vacant

Who raked in the most dough?

Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y) topped the second-quarter House list, bringing in just over $799,000. He represents parts of Brooklyn, but also Staten Island, which has a conservative-leaning population, making the district R+3.

Other top fundraisers included Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) who both broke $700,000.

Recent Republican defector Rep. Justin Amash (I-Mich) came in last among this grouping, raising $177,000. His departure from the Republican party and calls for impeachment of President Trump are not helping him raise money, especially from PACs.

Jim Lower, a Republican state representative, declared his candidacy soon after Amash began distancing himself from Trump and within a week of declaring candidacy raised almost $201,000. This includes about $13,000 from PACs and $10,000 in small contributions.

Joining Amash at the bottom rungs of the ladder are Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Iowa).

Cash in the bank

Golden and Amash also trailed in cash-on-hand with $495,000 and $201,000 in the bank, respectively.

The vulnerable member with the largest campaign war chest is Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Texas), who is sitting on almost $2.2 million. However, he actually raised little last quarter, receiving about $510,000. Since first elected in 2004, Marchant has been able to accumulate his flush reserves because he’s never had an opponent raise more than $109,000. That’s already changed as of last quarter after his Democratic challenger, Kim Olson, raised more than $278,000. Marchant’s $510,000 is also padded by a generous $285,000 loan he made to his campaign.

Rose is second to Marchant, with just more than $1.2 million in the bank thanks to his strong quarter. Four others also top the $1 million threshold, including Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-N.Y.), Slotkin, Spanberger, and Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-N.M.) in descending order.

Seeking out small donors

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The at-risk incumbents also vary in terms of contributions from small donors, those under $200.

Rep. Karen Handel (R-Ga.) won her seat in a special election in June 2017, the most expensive House race in history. Last year she was narrowly unseated by Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.). The two are heading for another showdown in 2020. Both are attempting to court grassroots support and prove their support among the electorate. McBath has a strong argument. Nearly $147,000, or 25 percent, of her cash last quarter came from contributions less than $200, nominally more than any other swing district incumbent. Handel raised about $210,000 last quarter of which about 13 percent came from small contributions.

Amash led the pack in terms of proportion, with nearly 40 percent of his receipts, about $70,000, coming from small donors. Coming in third and fourth were Maine’s Golden with 19 percent and Illinois’ Underwood with 17 percent.

Rose, who dominated the field in most other measures, including the total amount of contributions from individuals, ranked 18th of 19 with only about 4 percent of his receipts from small donors. The only incumbent with a lower percentage of small contributions than him was Marchant, who didn’t receive a single contribution of $200 or below in the second quarter and has only received $100 from small donors so far this year. He received only $39,450 in larger contributions from individuals. The rest came from PACs and the $285,000 he lent himself.

Playing with PAC money

Most of the Democrats in toss up races have signed a pledge that they will not take money from corporate PACs. But that hasn’t stopped some of them from taking money from Democratic party-associated PACs, along with those funded by trade associations or labor unions.

Iowa’s Finkenauer is in the lead when it comes to money from political action committees, with 40 percent, or about $174,000, of her second-quarter receipts. She’s followed by Texas’ Hurd who, nominally, received more than her with $260,000 coming from PACs, though this only makes up about 38 percent of his haul. Other incumbents breaching the 30 percent threshold include Marchant and Reps. Anthony Brindisi (R-N.Y.) and Ben McAdams (D-Utah).

Only two of the 19 House members in competitive contests received less than 11 percent of their second-quarter cash from PACs. Amash received $1,000 from the American Association of Nurse Practitioners making up less than 1 percent of his total. South Carolina’s Cunningham received 5 percent of his cash from PACs.

Burning through cash

While members are fielding contributions, they’re also spending cash to hire staff, pay consultants, commission advertising and to raise more money — known as “spending money to make money.”

The rate at which candidates spend compared to what they raise is known as their “burn rate.” Although the number can be somewhat subjective –– it varies depending on a candidate’s campaign strategy –– it can offer some clues about how much more they could improve performance in the polls if they invested the rest of their cash.

For the second quarter, almost all the candidates burned between 8 percent (Marchant) and 40 percent (Delgado) of what they raised. The only two not included in that range were Hurd and Amash, who each spent about 60 percent of the money they raised last quarter.

Correction: This story originally incorrectly reported Iowa Rep . Cindy Axne’s cash on hand at the end of June, 2019.



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