Those counting on an easy John Kerry-to-Scott Brown transition may be disappointed. Brown no shoo-in as Kerry successor

With Sen. John Kerry expected to be nominated for secretary of state, it’s assumed just-vanquished GOP Sen. Scott Brown will run in another special election for the Massachusetts seat.

( PHOTOS: John Kerry's career)


What’s a lot less certain is that Brown can pull off a repeat of his 2010 stunner.

Though Brown is far better known than any of his potential Democratic rivals — Reps. Ed Markey, Michael Capuano and Stephen Lynch top the current list — he’d also enter his third Senate campaign in four years with fresh wounds and new baggage.

Unlike 2010, when complacent Bay State Democrats were caught off-guard by the handsome state senator donning a Carhartt jacket and driving a pickup, operatives and activists could dust off the playbook Elizabeth Warren followed to an 8-percentage-point win.

And the damaged national Republican brand, which Warren hung on Brown’s neck to great effect, would likely continue to be a burden for the moderate Republican.

( Also on POLITICO: Boehner pitches millionaire tax hike)

“He was exposed,” said Democratic operative Jim Jordan, who was Kerry’s first campaign manager in the senator’s 2004 run for president. “His nastiness [in the campaign] … won’t be forgotten. Ask Rick Santorum or George Allen, Once that veneer of affability is cracked, it really can’t be repaired.”

Brown’s political team is mum about another potential bid, and those close to him say he’s undecided, especially since Kerry has yet to be nominated for the Cabinet job.

But the prospect is clearly not far from their minds. One source close to Brown joked that the senator’s Christmas party in Boston on Friday could be turned into a campaign launch. Brown himself said in a farewell speech on the Senate floor this week that “victory and defeat is [sic] temporary” and “depending on what happens, and where we go, all of us, we may obviously meet again.”

Kerry’s name vaulted to the top of the list of potential successors to Secretary Hillary Clinton after U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice withdrew from consideration Thursday. If he’s tapped, Kerry’s resignation could take effect as early as next month, allowing Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick to make an appointment until a special election date is set for later in 2013.

( Also on POLITICO: Obama avoids fight over Susan Rice)

When longtime Sen. Ted Kennedy died, Patrick appointed former Democratic National Committee Chairman Paul Kirk under an agreement that he wouldn’t run in the 2010 special election. It’s unclear if the second-term governor would take the same approach in this instance, though ABC News reports that Patrick has already reached out to the late senator’s widow, Vicki Kennedy, who could serve as a potential placeholder.

Massachusetts state law requires that a special general election be held no less than 145 days and no more than 160 days from the vacancy — putting the potential date in the late spring, possibly June. The primary would be six weeks earlier.

As for possible Democratic contenders, Capuano, entering his eighth term, clearly has statewide ambitions but could choose to keep his powder dry for a 2014 gubernatorial run.

Some Democrats see the 66-year-old Markey — the dean of the delegation — as too old and not battle-tested enough for a campaign against Brown, though he does have $3 million in the bank. Lynch’s moderate to conservative social views will likely be met with suspicion by activists and primary voters, but he does have a following among union members.

The favorite of the left is Rep. Jim McGovern, who ran Sen. George McGovern’s 1984 presidential campaign in Massachusetts. Some operatives believe his Worcester County base would cut into Brown’s blue-collar appeal in a region he needs to do well in to win.

Enjoying a resurrection of sorts in her own poll numbers after her embarrassing 2010 loss to Brown, Attorney General Martha Coakley hasn’t ruled out a repeat run. But she’s seen more likely to run for governor.

But the big looming question is how Brown would fare if he runs again.

It’s true that a special election would change the turnout model in his favor — 700,000 more voters showed up in 2012 than in 2010 — and that Brown remains an adept retail politician who could raise millions of dollars. Even in his loss, Election Day exit polls pegged his favorable rating at a sparkling 60 percent — 4 points higher than Warren’s. He won independents by 18 points and peeled off 11 percent of Democrats.

Brown’s team also believes their candidate was hurt significantly by Warren’s charge that his reelection would hand the GOP control of the U.S. Senate. That argument would be moot in a special election.

“It wouldn’t be a case they could make this time,” offered a Brown ally.

Even Democrats expect early polling to show Brown competitive with a slate of Democratic rivals, given his name recognition and popularity.

But 2012 proved that even an affable, well-funded Republican who runs a smart campaign is no lock in deep blue Massachusetts. Another consideration for Brown is that even if he was successful, he’d have to turn around and do it all again a year later, when Kerry’s seat is up for its regularly scheduled election.

“There is not a soul with any part of the Democratic Party — locally, in Massachusetts or nationally — who will take this race for granted as they did in 2010,” said Boston-based Democratic consultant Mary Anne Marsh.