SCOTTISH Labour’s longest-serving parliamentarian believes the country will vote for independence over concerns about the direction England is going in.

David Martin MEP said that a “straight choice” referendum would produce a Yes vote and has called for a “third question” of more Holyrood powers to be put on the ballot.

Asked if it was reasonable to have a second independence plebiscite, he said: “Yes, I think it is.” By contrast, Scottish Labour’s official position is firmly against another referendum.

Martin is a Labour elder statesman and was a member of the First Minister’s “standing council on Europe” that proposed a distinctive deal on Scotland’s relationship with the EU. He has been an MEP since 1984.

In June last year, he said that independence is “not my position” but declined to rule out supporting the policy in the future.

Speaking to the Sunday Herald, Martin said he doubted whether a Brexit settlement could be reached in two years.

He said: “On one level I’ve got some sympathy with the Scottish Government because there clearly has been a substantial change in circumstances. On the other hand, we are not yet out...[and] the Scottish Government should get on with the day job.”

Martin said that, if a referendum was based on a “straight choice” between independence and staying in the UK, he believes there would be a reversal of the 2014 result: “I think the boat has sailed on that one. Despite the current opinion polls, in a referendum people would vote to leave the UK.”

Asked why he felt this way, the MEP said: “I just think the mood and the way the tide has turned.”

He elaborated by saying he believed England in the future could be marked by a “declining economy”, less tolerance, public service cuts and being “generally hostile to many of the social issues that Scotland values”.

He added: “And in that case, I just think that the climate would be such that independence would cross the line.”

Martin said that, if the Scottish Government won a fresh mandate in 2021, the autumn of that year may be an appropriate time for a referendum.

However, the MEP said he believed there was still a majority in Scotland for a Parliament with extra powers and called for any referendum to reflect this view: “There is a strong argument for a third question on a ballot paper.”

He also said his current thinking was partly based on Labour struggles at a UK level: “I’m pretty depressed about the situation at a UK level – some of this comes back to my own party.”

Martin, who said his own personal view on independence had not changed since June, argued that Labour’s future would be resolved after the next General Election: “The political landscape at a UK level will become much clearer, whether Labour really does have a death wish, or whether electoral shock in 2020 brings it back to its senses.”

On whether he believed the UK Government had seriously considered the Scottish Government’s plan for a bespoke EU deal, he said: “No. I think that is one of the problems in terms of the way the Government has handled the whole relationship with Scotland. They hardly even went through the motions.

“The bespoke arrangement for Scotland would have been difficult to deliver. A clever UK Government would have put it to Brussels and put the onus on Brussels to reject it.”

Asked if a bespoke Scottish deal had been do-able, he said: “I do, actually.”

An SNP spokesperson said: "The Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of holding an independence referendum, once the terms of Brexit are clear, to give people in Scotland a choice over their future. It would be undemocratic, indefensible and completely unsustainable for the Tory government at Westminster to ignore the will of the Parliament and block a referendum that the Scottish Government already has a cast-iron mandate to call.

"It is good to see David Martin join with the leader of the Labour party [Jeremy Corbyn] in saying that Scotland should be given a choice. Perhaps Kezia Dugdale should listen more to the voices within her own party rather than running scared of the Tories."

A Scottish Labour spokesperson said: "Labour will never support independence because it would mean unprecedented levels of austerity for public services and the Scottish economy. We don’t need another divisive referendum from Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. Public opinion shows that Scots do not want another referendum."