Washington (CNN) Just as Donald Trump prepared to jet to Orlando to formally kick off his bid for a second term in 2020, a new Quinnipiac University poll was released that showed the President trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in the Sunshine State by 9 percentage points.

Which is a big headline! After all, Trump isn't choosing to announce his 2020 bid in Florida by accident. It's a state he won in 2016 and one that he knows he badly needs if he wants to win in 2020. So a poll that has him losing by almost double digits to the Democratic front-runner feels like a Very Important Development.

And it might be! But there's also reason to take this latest Florida poll with a grain of salt. Actually several grains. Consider:

1) The November 2020 election is 504 days away. Which is -- and this is a technical term -- a long way away. And lots can and will happen in Florida and nationwide between now and then.

2) Past Florida election results don't bear out a blowout, which a 9-point win would be, for either side. Here are the victory margins in Florida in the last five presidential races: 2016 (Trump +1), 2012 (Obama +1), 2008 (Obama +3), 2004 (Bush +5), 2000 (even). There's just nothing to suggest any Democratic candidate would beat Trump by 9 points. (Or that Trump would beat any of the Democrats by that margin.) The story is the same in the 2018 statewide races in Florida; Republicans won both the governor's office and the Senate race by razor-thin margins.

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