Six years ago, there was a counter-revolution. The 2008 election had given the Democrats not only the White House, but control of both Houses of Congress. In 2010, stung by ObamaCare and the stimulus, the voters struck back.

An astounding 63 seats in the House changed parties, the largest swing since 1948, and Republicans were put in charge. While the Senate remained under Democratic leadership, the GOP picked up six seats, a shift that continued in the 2014 election, with Republicans taking over that chamber as well.

While most of the focus in 2016 so far is who will occupy the White House, just as important is whether that right shift in the legislature will last.

If a Republican wins, could they have the same unity Obama enjoyed his first two years in office? And if a Democrat wins, will they have any chance of getting an agenda passed?

The House seems pretty securely in Republican hands. They lead 247 to 188, and while all seats are up for election this year, the map seems to favor conservatives.

The Senate is a different story. Here, the GOP lead is much smaller, 54-46, and since Democratic voter turnout tends to be higher in a presidential election year, there’s a chance the 2014 flip will be short-lived.

There are 24 Republican seats up for grabs and 10 Democratic ones. The Republicans facing re-election are primarily from that 2010 class — swept in by the Obama backlash. At the end of their first six-year term, will they be able to rally as much support?



Republican-held seats are being contested in the reliable Democratic states of Illinois, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as the battlegrounds of Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio. It’s a reverse of the situation that existed two years ago, when the Democrats were defending nearly a dozen seats in dependably Republican territory.

The Democrats need to win a net of five seats to take back the Senate. That would catapult New York’s Sen. Chuck Schumer, 65, to the key role of Senate Majority Leader, as Harry Reid is retiring at the end of the year.

To hold the chamber, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky will also have to fight in Florida, where the two parties are vying for the seat left open when Sen. Marco Rubio decided to run for president.

Who each party nominates for president is expected to have a major impact on their down ticket chances. Even a candidate who wins the White House, but doesn’t generate enough enthusiasm to get a lot of people to the polls, could hurt the down-ticket races.

“We are taking nothing for granted, however we are confident that come November, Republicans will retain the Senate majority,” said Andrea Bozek, a spokeswoman for the NRSC, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. “We have better-prepared candidates running better, more coherent and more thoughtful campaigns.”

Seven Key Races

Nevada

Open seat: Democratic Sen. Harry Reid, Senate minority leader, is retiring.

Nevada is battleground state that has tilted Democrat in recent presidential elections. The Democratic nominee’s turnout machine tends to drive organized labor turnout, presenting a challenge to Republicans running statewide when the White House is contested. But last cycle, Sen. Dean Heller (R) was elected narrowly even as President Obama was re-elected by 6 to 7 points. So, it’s doable for the right Republican candidate. This is one of the few seats where the GOP is projected to have a chance of picking up a Democratic seat. The likely candidates are Rep. Joe Heck for the Republicans and former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto for the Democrats.

Wisconsin

Incumbent: Sen. Ron Johnson (R)

Johnson ousted Sen. Russ Feingold (D) six years ago, a victory that was aided by the GOP wave that swept the nation. Johnson hasn’t necessarily done anything to warrant voters getting rid of him this year. But again, Wisconsin is reliably Democratic in presidential elections, and with progressive stalwart Feingold seeking his old job back, Johnson is vulnerable.

Illinois

Incumbent: Sen. Mark Kirk (R)

Kirk narrowly won this seat in 2010 as part of a GOP tidal wave. This is President Obama’s home state, and it hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1988. Kirk is the kind of Republican that is a good fit for Illinois. But presidential-level turnout could tip the seat to his Democratic challenger. Rep. Tammy Duckworth, a military combat veteran, is expected to get the nod for the Democrats.

Ohio

Incumbent: Sen. Rob Portman (R)

The Buckeye State ebbs and flows depending on national trends and the top of the ticket. Portman won his seat with the help of a Tea Party wave. Two years later, Obama’s strong victory there boosted Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown to a second term. Portman is among the best funded and organized of any GOP incumbent on the ballot this year. He appears to be catching a small break, in that his likely opponent, former Gov. Ted Strickland, so far is underperforming in fundraising.

Florida

Open seat: Sen. Marco Rubio will not stand for re-election, as he’s running for president

Rubio’s decision not to run has made this one of the year’s most contested races. The key unknown is the candidates themselves. On the left, Democratic establishment favorite, Rep. Patrick Murphy, is running against liberal agitator Rep. Alan Grayson. On the right, the GOP will choose from Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, Reps. Ron DeSantis and David Jolly, among others.

New Hampshire

Incumbent: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R)

Ayotte has worked hard and positioned herself in the sweet spot for Republicans in the Granite State. She’s conservative on national-security and fiscal issues, but works pragmatically across the aisle with Democrats. She’s running against Gov. Maggie Hassan in November, a strong candidate who was the Democrats’ first choice in this race. Ultimately, Ayotte’s prospects could rest on who the GOP presidential nominee is.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent: Sen. Pat Toomey (R)

Through a mix of pragmatic legislating and smart politicking, Toomey has positioned himself to win a second term in 2016. But high turnout, which he did not have to face six years ago, will be a challenge. Republicans have a spotty record in statewide elections over the past 20 years, usually succeeding — when they do — in midterm cycles. There is a primary to determine the Democratic nominee.

David M. Drucker is a senior correspondent with the Washington Examiner