In fact, the North Korean threat remained. Indeed, North Korea has apparently continued to produce nuclear fuel and operate its missile bases. American intelligence officials bluntly told a Senate committee this year that North Korea is unlikely to denuclearize.

Yet if Trump was hoodwinked last year, there are some more hopeful signs this time. He has appointed a well-respected special envoy, Stephen Biegun, and both Biegun and Trump have been signaling that they are now realistic about trade-offs and a timeline, with Trump saying that North Korea will denuclearize “ultimately” and that “I’m in no rush.”

Here’s what a plausible deal might look like.

North Korea would promise to dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear complex and a couple of less important sites, admit international inspectors and continue its moratorium on nuclear and missile tests. In exchange, the United States would relax sanctions on inter-Korean projects involving tourism and manufacturing. The two sides could also declare that the Korean War has ended, exchange diplomatic liaison offices, ease cultural exchanges and agree on a path forward chipping away at the nuclear program.

In some sense this is Kabuki. On my last visit to North Korea, in 2017, officials spoke of learning from Libya that if you give up your nuclear program, America may then topple your government. So I suspect Kim has zero plans to give up his nuclear weapons.

But even without full denuclearization, it is progress if there is a freeze on testing, a halt to nuclear production, an easing of tensions and an agreement on future steps . When an American crossed into North Korea from China last fall, the North Koreans expelled him rather than imprisoned him as a bargaining chip. The United States has likewise eased rules on humanitarian aid to North Korea.

Trump and Kim may claim some magical breakthrough, perhaps around a declaration of the end of the Korean War. But don’t believe any magic. This is not a problem that will be solved this month or this year.