As coronavirus surges across America, Austin, so far, seems to be faring better than many cities.

Are we doing something right here? Is it luck? Or are we just unaware of a bigger infected population that simply hasn’t been tested yet? Perhaps this is just the calm before the storm.

What, if anything, sets Austin apart?

Experts say multiple factors are likely at play in keeping Austin’s infection numbers down, but that they will likely rise. They also agree that Austinites will play a major role in determining whether the city’s coronavirus rate stays comparatively low, or explodes with life-threatening consequences.

"I do not see it as Austin being unusually protected," said Shelley Payne, interim director of the LaMontagne Center for Infectious Disease at the University of Texas. "Some of it is just chance."

Austin did not announce its first case of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, until Friday, five days after New Orleans, which currently has more than 170 reported cases. And on Wednesday, Austin officials said most of the 23 confirmed cases here were travel-related and that there were no documented instances of so-called community spread, in which the virus is dispersed by unknown infected patients.

Scientists and medical experts caution, though, that Austin’s apparent luck will likely be short-lived. As reporting improves and more tests become available, the volume of cases will certainly swell. Officials also urge residents to remain vigilant and follow orders for social distancing and dramatically limiting crowd sizes.

"There are probably many more infected people in our community at this point that we don’t see," Mayor Steve Adler told the American-Statesman. "We know the numbers are going to go up, and we know that for a certainty. Our question is whether we can minimize the spike so our health infrastructure doesn’t get overwhelmed."

Austin doctors say a lack of available tests, an early and persistent issue in the pandemic, has kept the city’s numbers lower than some communities.

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Dr. Timothy Vachris, an Austin family physician, said "quite a few" of his patients in the past week could have had coronavirus, but because their symptoms were mild, he decided not to use one of his practice’s 20 tests on them. One patient he chose not to test had close contact with a person who later tested positive.

"We are trying to triage everyone who has a cough or upper respiratory symptoms, and if their symptoms are mild, we are recommending they self-quarantine for 14 days," Vachris said.

"There is no chance Austin’s numbers are that low," said Jeff Oncken, a 29-year-old account manager for a local sports company who sought testing at an Austin hospital but was refused. "You can’t diagnose it without tests."

Officials at the federal, state and local levels have said they are trying to get more tests to doctors as private companies also seek to develop ways to administer such exams.

Experts say that concentrated outbreaks in some cities are easier to explain than others. Residents in Seattle and San Francisco have closer connections and more frequent travel to and from China, where coronavirus was first diagnosed and from which the pandemic spread. Other cities, such as New York, also have large volumes of international travelers and people live in close proximity.

The outbreaks in some towns, such as New Orleans, are more difficult to explain. Among possible theories: Could Bourbon Street with its tourist-filled, close-quarters bars play a role? Or could recent Mardi Gras parades have contributed?

They also have difficulty explaining why some cities, including St. Louis, which reported only its fourth case Wednesday, have lower infection rates.

Aside from inconsistent testing, experts agree other factors might be contributing to Austin’s seemingly limited number of cases.

Austin did not confirm its first case until after the coronavirus had become part of the 24-hour news cycle, potentially giving the public time to heed warnings about hand-washing and personal hygiene practices.

"Austin is a city that is greatly influenced by the university, and people are sort of used to staying informed about things," said Jackie Dudley, associate director of UT’s LaMontagne center. "People have been paying attention as news is coming out and thinking about how this might impact them."

Experts also think that Austin officials’ decision to cancel South by Southwest likely played a significant role in stopping local virus spread.

"It probably did help protect the city from a major epidemic," Payne said. "All of those kinds of measures help slow the spread of the virus."

Bryce Bencivengo, a spokesman for Austin’s emergency management, said local officials also have tried to learn from cities where outbreaks have been more significant.

"What a lot of them have said is that ‘we wish we would have done harsher measures in the beginning,’" he said.

Local officials Tuesday announced that restaurants could only offer carryout service and that groups of more than 10 were outlawed until May 1.

Another potential factor: Austin’s population tends to be healthy. A national study by the website WalletHub ranked the city 11th among the nation’s healthiest cities, which could play a role that experts say is difficult to measure.

Adler said that, in the end, Austin’s ability to keep the number of coronavirus patients from ballooning will be up to its residents. The city’s health, he said, depends on people abiding by the restrictions in place and taking measures to protect themselves and their neighbors.

"Collectively and individually as a community, we get to decide what kind of spike we are going to have as this virus begins to enter the general populations," he said. "We have control over whether it arrives quickly, or whether we can space it out over time."

Growth in number of people confirmed to have novel coronavirus by state