European sources have warned that Boris Johnson’s move to suspend parliament for five weeks has increased the chances of a no-deal Brexit, while a leading MEP said: “Taking back control has never looked so sinister.”

The plan to suspend parliament for five weeks, which would drastically reduce MPs’ ability to influence changes to the withdrawal agreement or seek a delay, is seen in Brussels as a move to overpower rebels and force through Johnson’s Brexit agenda.

The European parliament’s coordinator on Brexit, Guy Verhofstadt, said the move was unlikely to deliver a stable future relationship. “‘Taking back control’ has never looked so sinister,” he wrote. “As a fellow parliamentarian, my solidarity with those fighting for their voices to be heard. Suppressing debate on profound choices is unlikely to help deliver a stable future EU-UK relationship.”

EU officials said it heightened the chances of a no-deal outcome, as parliament could refuse to back a compromise presented to MPs, just days before the 31 October deadline.

Q&A What does a no-deal or WTO-rules Brexit mean? Show If the UK leaves the EU without a deal it would by default, become a “third country”, with no overarching post-Brexit plan in place and no transition period. The UK would no longer be paying into the EU budget, nor would it hand over the £39bn divorce payment. The UK would drop out of countless arrangements, pacts and treaties, covering everything from tariffs to the movement of people, foodstuffs, other goods and data, to numerous specific deals on things such as aviation, and policing and security. Without an overall withdrawal agreement each element would need to be agreed. In the immediate aftermath, without a deal the UK would trade with the EU on the default terms of the World Trade Organization (WTO), including tariffs on agricultural goods. The UK government has already indicated that it will set low or no tariffs on goods coming into the country. This would lower the price of imports – making it harder for British manufacturers to compete with foreign goods. If the UK sets the tariffs to zero on goods coming in from the EU, under WTO “most favoured nation” rules it must also offer the same zero tariffs to other countries.

WTO rules only cover goods – they do not apply to financial services, a significant part of the UK’s economy. Trading under WTO rules will also require border checks, which could cause delays at ports, and a severe challenge to the peace process in Ireland without alternative arrangements in place to avoid a hard border.

Some no-deal supporters have claimed that the UK can use article XXIV of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt) to force the EU to accept a period of up to 10 years where there are no tariffs while a free trade agreement is negotiated. However, the UK cannot invoke article XXIV unilaterally – the EU would have to agree to it. In previous cases where the article has been used, the two sides had a deal in place, and it has never been used to replicate something of the scale and complexity of the EU and the UK’s trading relationship. The director general of the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo, has told Prospect magazine that “in simple factual terms in this scenario, you could expect to see the application of tariffs between the UK and EU where currently there are none”. Until some agreements are in place, a no-deal scenario will place extra overheads on UK businesses – eg the current government advice is that all drivers, including lorries and commercial vehicles, will require extra documentation to be able to drive in Europeif there is no deal. Those arguing for a “managed” no deal envisage that a range of smaller, sector-by-sector, bilateral agreements could be quickly put into place as mutual self-interest between the UK and EU to avoid introducing or to rapidly remove this kind of bureaucracy. Martin Belam

Nathalie Loiseau, a former Europe minister, who is a close ally of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said the move showed there was a “disease” in British democracy.

“We could see a Brexit without an agreement,” the MEP wrote on Twitter. “It is, moreover, a Brexit without debate that is looming. From what disease is British democracy suffering from that there is a fear of debate before taking one of the most important decisions in its history?”

Norbert Rӧttgen, the chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the German Bundestag, sounded incredulous about the move. He tweeted:

#Johnson argues that respect for democracy dictates implementing #Brexit 'do or die' on October 31. As a fellow parliamentarian and democrat I wonder: how does respect for democracy go together with suspending #parliament?! — Norbert Röttgen (@n_roettgen) August 28, 2019

The request to the Queen was made as Johnson’s Brexit envoy met senior EU officials in Brussels.

David Frost, the prime minister’s EU adviser, met officials working for Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, as well as Jean-Claude Juncker’s chief of staff, Clara Martínez Alberola.

Frost, a former Foreign Office diplomat who went on to lead the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, replaced Olly Robbins when Johnson took office in July.

Jean-Claude Piris, a former head of the EU council legal service, told the Guardian that the move to suspend parliament had convinced him that Johnson “is determined to go for no-deal”. The UK was in “a really deep political and probably a deep constitutional crisis”, but there was nothing the EU could do, he added.

An EU diplomat said it was really hard to say what Johnson’s “scheme” was, adding that he was pessimistic about a compromise in talks. “We have no idea what his aim is apart from staying prime minister. This is his ultimate aim and all other things are being subjected to this aim.”

Before the meeting, Johnson saw EU leaders in Berlin, Paris and the G7 summit in Biarritz – a series of meetings that have injected a new dynamic into talks, according to EU officials.

But the move to suspend parliament is now seen as heightening the risk of no deal. It has also been pointed out that it does buy Johnson more time to strike a deal, if there are fewer parliamentary sessions.

EU diplomats remain sceptical about whether the prime minister can find alternatives to the Irish backstop – the main stumbling block – that can win over his party.

Frost was not expected to put fresh ideas on the table, while the EU is stressing that proposals need to be offered sooner rather than later.

Following the meeting between Frost and EU officials, a UK government spokesperson said the UK and EU had agreed to “intensify discussions as of next week”.

When asked about Johnson’s declaration that a “blistering timetable” for negotiations existed, a European commission spokesperson said: “I am not aware of any 30 days deadline. Of course, for us, the earlier the better, because our working assumption is that Brexit should occur on 31 October and that should happen with a deal and that is our preferred scenario and the scenario we are working to. So for that to happen, the earlier we see workable proposals, the better.”

The spokesperson said Juncker and Johnson had agreed to “continue the dialogue” during a phone call between the two leaders on Tuesday evening.

The EU has maintained its readiness to replace the backstop, an insurance plan to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. Under the backstop, agreed between the EU and Theresa May, Northern Ireland would continue to follow many EU single market rules, while the UK would remain part of an EU single customs territory.The backstop would kick in automatically if the two sides failed to find an alternative and would apply until new arrangements could be agreed.

Quick Guide What is the Brexit ‘backstop’? Show What is the original ‘backstop’ in the withdrawal agreement? Variously described as an insurance policy or safety net, the backstop is a device in the withdrawal agreement intended to ensure that there will not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, even if no formal deal can be reached on trade and security arrangements. It would mean that if there were no workable agreement on such matters, Northern Ireland would stay in the customs union and much of the single market, guaranteeing a friction-free border with the Republic. This would keep the Good Friday agreement intact. Both the UK and EU signed up to the basic idea in December 2017 as part of the initial Brexit deal, but there have been disagreements since on how it would work. The DUP have objected to it, as it potentially treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK, creating a customs divide in the Irish Sea, which is anathema to the unionist party. Hardline Tory Eurosceptics also object to it, as they perceive it to be a trap that could potentially lock the UK into the EU’s customs union permanently if the UK & EU cannot seal a free trade agreement. That would prevent the UK from doing its own free trade deals with nations outside the bloc. What was added to May’s withdrawal agreement? Joint interpretative instrument

A legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement was given to Theresa May in January 2019 to try to get her deal through the UK parliament. It gives legal force to a letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the commission and council. This stated the EU’s intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so it would not be triggered, or, if it was triggered, to get out of it as quickly as possible. Unilateral statement from the UK This set out the British position that, if the backstop were to become permanent and talks on an alternative were going nowhere, the UK believes it would be able to exit the arrangement. Additional language in political declaration This emphasises the urgency felt on both sides to negotiate an alternative to the backstop, and flesh out what a technological fix would look like. However, it failed to persuade the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, who said that while it ‘reduces the risk’ of the UK being trapped in a backstop indefinitely, it does not remove it. What happens next? Boris Johnson declared the Northern Ireland backstop ‘dead’ during his leadership campaign, and promised to throw it out of any deal he renegotiated with the EU. The EU has repeatedly stated that it will not reopen the withdrawal agreement for renegotiation. Daniel Boffey, Martin Belam and Peter Walker

Dublin remains sceptical about alternatives that have been circulating.

“I think we need to be honest here that the alternative arrangements that have been discussed to date do not do the same job as the backstop, not even close,” said Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, speaking after a meeting with his Czech counterpart on Tuesday evening. “So let’s not pretend that solutions exist when they might not.”

In his call with Johnson, Juncker said the EU’s support for Ireland was “steadfast” and that the bloc would “continue to be very attentive to Ireland’s interests”.

The UK government has said it is “working at pace to find a wide range of flexible and creative solutions to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland”.



