Stormy weather forecast in Florida on Election Day

Doyle Rice, USA TODAY | USATODAY

Most of the country will be mild and clear on Election Day, though stormy weather could pose problems for voters in the battleground state of Florida.

"Heavy rainfall and strong winds are likely over the state on Tuesday," says AccuWeather meteorologist Alan Reppert. And, he says, thunderstorms could reach severe levels in central and southern parts of the state.

Much of South Carolina, along with southern Alabama and Georgia, also will see rain.

"People heading to the polls in Charleston and Columbia, S.C., Savannah, Ga., and Jacksonville, Fla., will have to brave the heaviest of the rains," AccuWeather meteorologist Meghan Evans said.

This same storm will turn into a nor'easter for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday and Thursday, not good news for places recovering from Sandy's devastation, Reppert said. Rain, wind and coastal flooding are likely from Delaware to New England, including hard-hit New Jersey.

While the coast deals with rain, the mountains of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and New England will see snow. Although fierce, the storm will be more of a "typical nor'easter," Reppert reported.

Elsewhere on Election Day, light rain and snow are forecast to develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the upper Great Lakes. Snow showers are possible in northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but Reppert said "there shouldn't be any major accumulations."

Light rain also is likely in western portions of Washington state and Oregon on Tuesday, as a storm approaches the Pacific Northwest.

How does weather affect elections? A study conducted by political scientists in 2007 verified the old American political adage that Republicans should pray for rain on presidential election days. The researchers found that for every one inch increase in rain above its Election Day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5% of the vote.

"Our evidence supports the claim that bad weather lowers voter turnout," the authors wrote in the study, which was published in the Journal of Politics. "Bad weather (rain and snow) significantly decreases the level of voter turnout within a county … and poor weather conditions are positively related to Republican Party vote share in presidential elections."

In Florida on Tuesday, more than an inch of rain is forecast in some parts of the state. A typical early November day in Jacksonville, for example, sees less than a 10th of an inch.

The study was conducted by political scientists Brad Gomez, of the University of Georgia; Thomas Hansford, of the University of California-Merced; and George Krause, of the University of Pittsburgh.

"In political science, it's known that Democrats bear higher costs for voting than Republicans," Krause said. "And there is a greater cost to voting during inclement weather, which disproportionately affects people who are more likely to vote for Democrats."

Whether rain or snow, precipitation was the major weather issue that kept voters away, as the authors found that "cold temperatures do not significantly decrease voter turnout."