It may be the first surplus a finance minister doesn't want to talk about.

Finance Canada reported Friday that the federal government had a $7.5-billion surplus with just one month left in the fiscal year.

For months, Finance Minister Bill Morneau has insisted the 2015-16 fiscal year, which ran until the end of March, would finish in deficit. The Liberals' March 22 budget projected a deficit for that year of $5.4-billion, an outcome that now appears unlikely barring an unusually large deficit in March.

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The monthly tracking of Ottawa's bottom line – known as the Fiscal Monitor – showed the federal government ran a $3.2-billion surplus in the month of February.

Speaking in Quebec City on Friday, Mr. Morneau did not repeat his past definitive predictions of a deficit.

"We know that in every year, the pattern is for government revenues to decline at the end of the year and for expenses to go up," he said. "We don't want to focus on this issue. We'd rather focus on what's important for Canadians, which is dealing with the fact that we've been in a low-growth era and that we need to grow the economy for the future."

The issue of whether there was a surplus in 2015-16 is politically charged because the Conservatives campaigned last year by saying that they had returned the books to balance in 2014-15 – which was confirmed in the final numbers – and that the surplus would continue into 2015-16.

The Liberals, in contrast, won the election with a message that the economy faced weak growth in both the short and longer term and that deficit spending was required to boost growth. Mr. Morneau's budget forecasts five years of deficits totalling $113-billion and no definitive timeline for returning to surplus.

Brian DePratto, an economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, said the final number for 2015-16 will likely be better than what was projected in the budget.

"From an economic point of view, whether it's a small surplus or a small deficit is fairly irrelevant, to be frank. The reason people are paying a lot of attention to this is really that idea of whether or not the previous government left the cupboards bare," he said. "It's a bit of a bun fight."

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Shortly after winning the Oct. 19 election, Mr. Morneau announced that the combination of low oil prices and weaker-than-expected economic growth meant that forecasts for future government revenue had been lowered substantially.

Statistics Canada reported Friday that the economy declined for the first time since September. Gross domestic product dipped in February by 0.1 per cent month over month.

Yet the economy's troubles over the past year appear to be out of sync with the government's fiscal performance.

Over the first 11 months of the fiscal year, personal income tax revenues were up $5.5-billion, or 4.5 per cent, and corporate income tax revenues were up $4.6-billion, or 13.8 per cent.

On the spending side, program expenses are $15.3-billion higher, a 7-per-cent increase.

On April 19, Parliamentary Budget Officer Jean-Denis Fréchette released an updated fiscal forecast that projected a small surplus of $700-million for 2015-16, to be followed by five years of deficits.

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Conservatives jumped on that report as evidence that their party did in fact leave the Liberals with a surplus, but Mr. Morneau rejected that conclusion at the time. A spokesperson for the minister told The Globe and Mail on Friday that the minister stands by that view.

Conservatives note that Mr. Morneau's budget also included some new spending in the 2015-16 fiscal year, which should be considered as part of the debate. The final numbers won't be known until the fall.

Conservative MP and finance critic Lisa Raitt said she's pleased that Mr. Morneau appears to be softening his insistence that the most recent year will show a deficit.

"Beating that drum isn't going to gain him any credibility on Bay Street," she said. "They don't have a grasp on the numbers."