Egypt is burning. The West is fretting — especially, the United States.

How far will the ripples of Tunisia spread across the Arab Middle East? Following the toppling of the dictator, there have been anti-government demonstrations in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen and now Egypt.

Add to this mix Lebanon (where a Hezbollah-nominated prime minister has replaced the pro-Western Saad Hariri) and also the Palestinian Authority (the preferred American and Israeli interlocutor, which has been shown in recent leaked papers to have been in collusion with Israel), and you can see another pattern:

Two pro-American governments toppled (Tunisia and Lebanon), and four pro-American regimes under siege (Egypt, Jordan, Yemen and Algeria).

In Egypt, tens of thousands of Egyptians have taken to the streets against the autocratic and corrupt regime of Hosni Mubarak. They’ve been beaten, tear-gassed and had water cannons turned on them. Almost 1,000 have been marched off to jail, and six people have died.

Egypt, the Arab world’s largest nation at more than 70 million, is not Tunisia, with 10 million. Egypt’s security apparatus is the largest in the Arab world, and most dreaded. The tiny Tunisian army did initially go after the protesters but soon gave up, which is why Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country. Mubarak, a former air force hero, is at the centre of the shadowy Egyptian security power structure.

Replicas of the 1979 Iranian Revolution may not be in the making. But this much is clear:

The uprisings have caught both Arabs and non-Arabs by surprise. Peoples and governments are excited or apprehensive, depending on their views.

Long-simmering tensions are bubbling over. The grievances are the same everywhere — oppression, corruption, lack of freedom, poverty, rising prices and high unemployment amid the opulence of the thieving ruling classes.

The revolts are not led by Islamic forces, as long feared/hoped. Or even by established political opposition parties. Indeed in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is playing catch-up.

The protesters in the streets of Cairo, Alexandria and elsewhere in Egypt, as well as in Tunis, Amman and Sana, the capital of Yemen, have mostly been the young. Not unlike those in Iran who bravely led the 2009 marches against the Iranian regime after the stolen presidential election.

In the unfolding dynamic of the Middle East, four of the pro-Western governments — Egypt, Yemen, Palestinian Authority and Lebanon — have been recipients of American armaments and security training.

The first three have been accused, in varying degrees, of violations of the human rights of their own people. And now some are busy suppressing dissent.

In the case of Lebanon, the Washington-led idea of spending $500 million since 2006 to develop a force that could one day take on Hezbollah has gone awry.

Washington is reduced to the impotent rage of withdrawing funding to Beirut — a melodrama that will be played out in the days ahead.

In fact, the American and Western model of dealing with the Arab Middle East is teetering. The support of military or monarchical regimes has been based on two pillars: keep oil in friendly and pliant hands, and back governments friendly to Israel.

So, it’s not surprising that after having played cheerleaders to the Orange Revolution (Ukraine), the Cedar Revolution (Lebanon) and the Green Revolution (Iran), Washington and other Western capitals have not known how to react to the eruption of people power in Arab lands.

Washington was mostly silent for four weeks while Tunisians took the streets. Then it said it did not want to take sides. Why not? And, finally, Barack Obama said in his State of the Union address Tuesday night: “Let us be clear: the United States of America stands with the people of Tunisia, and supports the democratic aspirations of all people.”

No, it is not clear at all. And, no, the U.S. was not standing, and not seen as standing, with the democratic aspirations of Tunisians. Obama was, finally, merely acknowledging a fait accompli.

Similarly, France — which has traditionally been close to the French-speaking Tunisia — first offered to send its riot-control police to Tunis. Only after the people toppled Ben Ali did Nicolas Sarkozy see fit to deny landing rights to the dear departed of Tunisia.

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In the case of Egypt, we’ve seen Washington wobble in the last 48 hours — one moment lauding the Mubarak regime as “stable;” at another upholding the right of demonstrators to demonstrate against the aging and corrupt autocrat; and constantly calling on both sides to refrain from violence, as though the protesters in Cairo and other cities are equal to the brutal security forces armed and trained by the Americans.

What the people want is Mubarak and his regime gone. That’s not what the U.S. wants.

Haroon Siddiqui is the Star's editorial page editor emeritus. His column appears on Thursday and Sunday. hsiddiqui@thestar.ca

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