In this blog post I’ll try to predict the standings of the Pacific Division at the end of the 2018-19 NHL season. Predictions are always hard, nearly impossible, to get even close to correct but I’ll do my best. Now, since this is a Sharks blog some people will definitely call these predictions biased, but I’ve done my absolute best to turn-off the Sharks fan in me and look at the teams in the division in the most objective way possible. I’ll be starting with the team I think will be worst, and gradually climb my way up the standings.

Team Number 8 – The Vancouver Canucks

This is in my opinion the easiest pick to make. The Vancouver fanbase already seems to be practically married to the thought of drafting Jack Hughes, and I think they have a very good reason for being so. I would be extremely surprised if the Canucks aren’t one of the worst teams in the NHL next year, and it would surprise me to a borderline heart attack if they don’t finish as the bottom team in the Pacific. Don’t get me wrong, the Canucks have some very good players in Horvat, Tanev and Boeser but the team as a whole is just not good enough to compete right now. With guys such as Petterson, Dahlen, Joulevi, Gaudette, Hughes and Woo the Canucks have an amazing prospect pool and will definitely be good, perhaps even contenders sometime in the next 5 years but there’s a long way to go.

And let us not forget that the Sedins retired last year. You might think “Oh, they were too old anyway and way past their prime, it can’t matter that much?”. But despite their age the Sedins combined for 105 points last year, and were two of the five players the Canucks had that surpassed 40 points (the other three were Horvat, Boeaser and Vanek). Combine those points with Vaneks 41 and all of the sudden the Canucks lost 146 points, while doing nothing to replace them. Sure they signed Roussel, Beagle and Schaller but all of those guys are depth-signings and will not be able to replace the production that was lost. Bottom line is that the Canucks will be bad, even worse than they we’re last season. But you know what they say, it’s always darkest before the dawn.

Team number 7 – Arizona Coyotes

The Arizona Coyotes had an abysmal start to last season and had a record of 2-15-3 after their first 20 games. Will things be better this year? Most likely. Will they be a playoff team? No. Despite the teams off-season, I just cant see their current roster being better than any other team in the pacific, except for the Canucks of course. The relatively busy off-season they had included trading for Galchenyuk and Hinostroza aswell as signing Grabner. Even though these signings definitely made them stronger, I just can’t see them becoming a playoff team as a result. The biggest issue that I have with the Coyotes is their centre depth. Depending on where they put Galchenyuk, their top 3 centres are Stepan, Dvorak and Strome. In my opinion Stepan is a good second-line centre, Dvorak is a regular second-line centre, and Strome, well who knows? Strome played pretty well in the last quarter of the season but he has to take another couple of steps to actually be a real difference-maker for this team. The defensive depth however is a lot better with Ekman-Larsson leading the way followed by Hjalmarsson, Chychrun and Goligoski. In other words, a pretty formidable blue-line.

If the Coyotes were to surprise me this season by reaching a playoff spot there are a whole lot of things that have to click. Raanta proved at the end of last season that he is capable of being a good starter in the NHL, and if the Coyotes are to make the playoff he has to sustain that form for the entire season. Keller has to find a way back to his play from the start of last season, Strome must prove that he can be a top line centre, Stepan has to keep up his good play and Galchenyuk must find his 30-goal scorer form. If all of these things work out, then yes the Coyotes could potentially make the playoffs. But that is still a lot of things that have to go right. And looking at their roster right now while simultaneously keeping some realism I just cant see them being a strong team. Therefore I have them finishing on seventh place.

Number 6 – Edmonton Oilers

Is this wierd? They have the best player in the world, one of the leagues best second-line centres (who would be a first line centre on many other teams), how can I predict them finishing sixth in their division? The real question with this Oilers team is, what year was a fluke? Was it last year when they were nowhere near the playoffs, or the year before that when they made it to the second round? Obviously I personally believe it was the 2016-17 season. While the Oilers have some great players up-front in McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins, I just don’t consider their defense good enough to be able to reach a playoff spot. Nurse is a beast, Larsson and Klefbom are good second pairing defencemen, but that defensive core just isn’t good enough to make any real noise. Matters got even worse when Sekera recently got injured long term, making an already weak blue-line even thinner. The good news for Oilers-fans is that there are some good defensive-prospects in the system, such as Bouchard and Bear.

The second big question mark surrounding the Oilers is their goaltending. Last year Talbot had a SVS% of 0.908, falling back from the 0.919 he had the previous year. Which season was the outlier? If the Oilers are going to challenge for a playoff-spot Talbot must become the Talbot we saw in 2016-17. If he doesn’t, well then I feel pretty confident in where I’m placing the Oilers.

Number 5 – Anaheim Ducks

Here’s where it’s starting to get tricky. Every year, in every division, there is a team that made the playoffs that won’t the following year. And as you can see, my pick for who that team is going to be, is the Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks have made the playoffs for six consecutive seasons, so anticipating them to miss the playoffs might seem insane but you have to take some risks with these predictions. The Ducks got steamrolled by the Sharks in last seasons first round, which was the complete opposite outcome of what people expected from the series, and that could have been a taste of whats to come. Honestly, I don’t have many issues with the team that the Ducks put on the ice. Their centre-depth could definitely be much better, but other than that they have a rather impressive team. Good winger depth, reliable goaltending tandem and one of the best blue-lines in the west. So why are they so low on my list?

This is not about the Ducks getting worse, it’s simply about other teams in the division getting better. The Kings got better, as did the Flames, with Vegas losing some players and adding some others their roster is pretty much at a stand-still, and the Sharks still have the exact same team (except fourth-liner Fehr) that bounced the Ducks in four games. I just don’t see them being better than any of those four teams. Also, with their centre-depth being so weak I consider them very susceptible to injuries on Henrique or Getzlaf. If any of those two goes down for a considerable amount of time, I could see things getting ugly. So basically the Ducks are still good, but other teams are better.

Number 4 – Los Angeles Kings

Before you ask, yes, I think that a team in the Pacific will reach a wildcard spot so I’m predicting four teams from the division to make the playoffs. And the team to end up in that wildcard spot is, the Kings. Despite a lack of any serious success (only one playoff win) in the playoffs since their cup in 2014 I still consider the Kings a good team. With a core consisting of Kopitar, Quick, Carter and Doughty I just can’t envision them missing out on the playoffs. Even though I have serious doubts concerning Browns ability to replicate his performance from last season, I don’t think his drop in production will affect the team due to the additions they made. With the exception of Tobias Reider the Kings did not lose any noteworthy players during the offseason, while certainly adding a noteworthy player in Kovalchuck. It’s also important to remember that Carter is essentially an addition for the Kings this year since he only played 27 games last season.

If Quick plays the same way he did in the playoffs last year and Kovalchuck exceeds expectations I can definitely see them pushing even further up the standings, but Quick is known for being a playoff specialist so I doubt that’ll happen. My only real issue with the Kings is their goalie tandem. When Quick is on his game I think he’s one of the best goalies in the league, but their back-up Jack Campbell is very unproven. If Quick would get injured it will be very interesting to see how Campbell would shoulder that responsibility.

Number 3 – Calgary Flames

Traditionally during the last years the Flames have had a down season, followed by a better season, followed by a another down season, and so on. And guess what, last year was a down year for the Flames. And I’m betting that they’re going to bounce back once again, stronger than ever. A lot have changed with their roster during this off-season and for the better. They bought out Brouwer, traded Ferland and Hamilton for Lindholm and Hanifin, as well as signing free agents Neal and Ryan. In my opinion every single one of these moves made the Flames better. I would take Lindholm and Hanifin over Hamilton and Ferland any day. Hamilton is a better player than Hanifin right now, but Hanifin has much more room to grow. Lindholm already is a better player than Ferland, not to mention the fact that he’s also younger. The Neal contract might get ugly in a few years but as of now I still think he’s good for 20-25 goals and is undeniably a player that makes them a lot more lethal on the offensive side. Signing Derek Ryan (did you know Ryan scored almost 40 points last year?) was also a brilliant move providing them with some much needed centre-depth. So yeah, Calgary made some good moves this offseason and I think they’ll surprise a lot of people next year.

If the core of Gaudreau, Monahan, Giordano and Smith can deliver consistently aswell as the new guys performing according to expectations I just don’t see this roster missing the playoffs. There aren’t any major holes or concerns with their line-up, and if Bill Peters can rally his troops in his first year as head coach I think Flames fans will have a fun season.

Number 2 – Vegas Golden Knights

I don’t think the Golden Knights will be able to replicate the amazing season they had, but I absolutely think they’ll still be a very good team. During last year I was in denial concerning their success for the longest time (yes I was one of those UNSUSTAINABLE guys), until eventually I just accepted the fact that they we’re a good team. Nevertheless, I will stand fast by my opinion that they over-performed and will fall back a little bit this season. Vegas had a rather quiet off-season losing Neal and Perron while signing free agent Paul Stastny. It feels like some people are under the impression that losing Neal and Perron will be devastating for the Knights but I highly doubt it. Both players were injured during some parts of the season without the Knights going into any kind of a slump and even though Neal did a lot of heavy lifting for the Knights during the first quarter of the season he took a much more reclusive back seat on the team during the other three quarters. The truth is that these players weren’t the heart of the team. Players such as Marchessault, Karlsson, Smith, Fleury and Schmidt are the real back-bone of their roster, all of which are staying on-board.

As I said earlier I think they’ll fall back a bit, but I still think they’ll go just beyond 100 points. Tatar will have had some more time to settle in and hopefully Stastny will slot in nicely and the production that was lost in Neal and Perron will quickly have been replaced. In summary, the Golden Knights will be dangerous next year. Will they go back to the finals? I highly doubt it, but I could still see them making a deep run in the playoffs.

Number 1 – San Jose Sharks

I know, I know… “This is a Sharks blog, OF COURSE you going to predict the Sharks ending up first place!”. It might seem obvious, but this is actually the first time I ever predict the Sharks winning their division (since I was old enough to develop a serious grasp on hockey), and here’s why it’s different this year.

The Sharks pummeled the Ducks in round one, but went on to lose in 6 games to the Knights in the following series. After the Sharks bolstered their line-up by trading for Evander Kane they went 12-6-2 between the 28th of February and 4th of April making them one of the better teams in the NHL. These 20 games included an 8 game winning streak, as well as going 1-4-1 in their last 6 games of the season. Now you might think that this ins’t good enough to compete for the division title next year, but remember that this was all without Joe Thornton. In the playoffs they were also the only team to push Vegas to more than 5 games, of course until Vegas lost in the Stanley Cup final. Bottom-line is that when you’re looking at the results from the playoff it’s hard to argue that the Sharks were not the hardest challenge in the west for the Golden Knights.

While losing Fehr opened up a hole on their fourth-line it was quickly filled by signing Antti Soumela, the top-scorer in the finnish Liiga last year. The results of the Sharks season will probably depend a lot on the play that Burns and Thornton provides. Will Thornton continue to score 50 or so points (last year he was on pace for over 60) or will his knee-injuries finally catch up to him? Can Burns find that level of play he had two seasons ago when he won the Norris trophy? If they can, then I have no troubles predicting them to finish first. The Sharks could still improve in some areas, most notably by acquiring a true number one centre, but their line-up is overall very solid. They have an excellent blueline, a good forward core and two solid goalies in Jones and Dell. There is also enough youth on the team with players such as Meier, Labanc, Ryan and Gambrell for the team to take another step forward without additions during the off-season. In conclusion, the play that the Sharks showed at the end of last season nd the playoffs combined with the return of Joe Thornton makes me believe they will win the Pacific.

Personally I find the Pacific Division to be extremely difficult to predict, probably the most difficult of all divisions in the NHL. I tried atleast. Perhaps I based these rankings too much of last years results, perhaps I over-valued some of the additions that were made? Now if you’ve made it this far, tell me where I’m wrong (don’t hold back), or tell me where you think I’m right.

Emil