It’s a decision that made little sense taken at face value. The Red Wings are trying to get younger. They’re trying to stay competitive now while also building a team that can return to their high expectations as a playoff contender in the next few years.

And then the protected lists were released for Vegas’ expansion draft and the Red Wings opted to protect 33-year-old Jimmy Howard over 25-year-old Petr Mrazek in goal.

It was as surprising a decision as there was on the day protected lists were revealed. Why did it happen? How likely is it that Mrazek is selected by the Golden Knights? Let’s dive in.

Why Mrazek over Howard: It was a rough regular season this year for Mrazek, who posted a .901 save percentage in 50 games for the Red Wings, well below the league average of .913. You can’t win with that kind of goaltending. Still, that’s not enough reason to protect the older goalie over the one with more long-term potential in a rebuild scenario. Goalies have bad seasons. It happens. Especially ones still trying to find their way in the league.

The strain between the Red Wings and Mrazek goes back before that. Last July, the two sides avoided arbitration in agreeing on a two-year deal worth $4 million on average per season. It was an agreement that didn’t just go down to the wire, it went beyond the wire in delaying the hearing to get an agreement done. Both sides were dug in on a number and ultimately Mrazek believed he was worth $4 million per season. He got his way.

“It was last second,” said one source close to Mrazek.

It was a great example of what makes Mrazek such a good goalie when he’s on – he has swagger. He has confidence in himself. He believed he was worth a number and he wouldn’t budge. Nothing wrong with that. He just needed to back it up.

It didn’t happen during the regular season, one in which he was outplayed considerably by Jimmy Howard. It didn’t happen in the World Championships, where Mrazek lost playing time to KHL goalie Pavel Francouz after posting an .881 save percentage for the Czech Republic.

When things went sideways for Mrazek this season, there was concern internally about his response. Rather than digging in and trying to work his way out of it, Mrazek, according to multiple sources, soured and placed the blame elsewhere.

Contrasted against Howard, whose work ethic picked up when his play went south in previous seasons, it presented a tough decision for an organization with an embedded belief in culture and work ethic for its best players.

“Work has never been a problem in Detroit,” said one NHL source outside the Red Wings organization. “And there’s a changing of the guard and the leadership is changing. You can’t let that creep in. If that guy, who doesn’t want to work, is going to be handed your No. 1 goalie job, it changes everything.”

With Red Wings goalie Jimmy Howard protected, the team runs the risk of losing a younger goalie with potential. (Marc DesRosiers/USA TODAY Sports)

Mrazek was shopped before the expansion draft protection lists were solidified and there wasn’t serious interest. A big reason for that was because teams would have had to protect him in the expansion draft and at $4 million, it wasn’t enough of an upgrade over their current goalies to pull the trigger. Calgary, a team that showed some interest, opted for Mike Smith as the goalie they wanted in the short term to try and win games while also working with the young, talented goalies coming in the Flames organization.

A source from another team that needs a goalie said they were less worried about Mrazek’s work ethic and more worried about his ability to consistently stop pucks. He doesn’t have prototypical NHL goalie size and relies on his strong athleticism to make saves, something that hasn’t happened consistently enough lately.

“He’s got tremendous skill. Great skill,” said one goalie coach. “He’s tremendously athletic but he makes simple saves very hard because he ends up in bad places.”

So a trade wasn’t an option, and the Red Wings had to make the call on what kind of message it would send internally if Mrazek was protected and what life might look like in the short term if Howard was unprotected and actually selected. We know now what that decision was.

What’s next: This decision could end up making Red Wings management look bad. Let’s say the Philadelphia Flyers work out a deal with Vegas GM George McPhee to select Mrazek. If that serves as a wake-up call and Mrazek combines his high-end athleticism with a work ethic to prove doubters in Detroit wrong and has a big year, it could be a decision that costs jobs. That’s the risk and it’s a big one.

McPhee has better options in goal to help build the Golden Knights, with Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury expected to be picked as the starter. McPhee has other strong options in Washington goalie Philipp Grubauer, Colorado’s Calvin Pickard and New York’s Antti Raanta, among others. Grubauer is especially intriguing as a goalie McPhee knows well from his Washington days and who is still just 25 years old. He had a .926 save percentage last season.

But Mrazek is talented, young and now jilted, which could be an appealing combination for McPhee, who can take some risks in the name of building for the future.

According to an executive on another team, Vegas is telling teams they’re not going to overload in goal unless they have a pretty good idea they’re able to move the player in a trade after the expansion draft.

“They could get jammed up,” said the executive. “They’re going to take goalies if they have a deal for one.”

The other wildcard is Detroit’s decision to leave center Riley Sheahan unprotected. If you’re a team in the West, adding a 6-foot-3 center who is still 25 years old may have more appeal than a goalie with a big ticket and questions. In fact, the Red Wings’ decision not to trade Sheahan at the deadline when there was real interest, only to leave him unprotected in the expansion draft and risk losing him for nothing, is the bigger sin here.

And if Mrazek goes through the expansion process unclaimed? It may end up working out in Detroit’s favor. A clear message would have been sent both to the goalies and the players on the roster that culture still matters in the organization, even in the midst of a rebuild. Mrazek would have a pretty clear understanding of his value in the league and, perhaps, additional motivation going into the final year of his contract. The key to all of this for Mrazek, no matter where he ends up, is how he responds to the slight.

“He doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who is going to dog it,” said another source. “He’s not on a six-year contract. It still puts the onus on the player to perform or else.”

(Top photo: Raj Mehta/USA TODAY Sports)