POLITICO Playbook: Democrats are ‘substantial favorites’ to win the House Presented by Amazon

The Cook Political Report is moving Rep. Dennis Ross’ (R-Fla.) open seat from likely Republican to lean Republican as the environment trends more Democratic. | AP Photo

DRIVING THE DAY

DAVE WASSERMAN of the COOK POLITICAL REPORT, the foremost expert on House elections, will send an email to subscribers this morning with this headline: “House: The Bottom Line in Republicans’ 42 Open Seats.” In short: Wasserman seems pretty bullish on a Dem takeover.

-- EXCLUSIVE FIRST LOOK FOR PLAYBOOKERS: “With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930. The retirements of Speaker Paul Ryan (WI-01), as well as powerful committee chairs like Reps. Ed Royce (CA-39) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) and popular moderates like Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) and Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02), have given Democrats stellar pickup opportunities.

“Of Republicans’ 42 incumbent-less seats, eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent. History is working against the GOP in many of those seats: we found that since 1992, in situations when a president’s party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column. …

"[I]n a wave environment, 42 seats is a dangerous level of exposure: If Democrats win even eight of the 42 (our current ratings pin eight as Lean/Likely Democratic and four more as Toss Ups), they'll already be over a third of the way to a majority.” Cook’s full rating list

-- COOK is also moving Rep. Dennis Ross’ (R-Fla.) open seat from likely Republican to lean Republican, and Rep. Ted Poe’s (R-Texas) open seat from solid Republican to likely Republican. Those are two significant moves, since both are solidly Republican districts that the GOP should have no problem holding onto.

ALEX ISENSTADT in DALLAS: “Role reversal: Architect of 2010 GOP House takeover in trouble”: “The man who engineered the 2010 Republican takeover of the House is racing to save himself in his own election this year – and he admits, in so many words, that President Donald Trump isn’t helping.”

“Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, a longtime party leader and former House GOP campaign chief, is confronting a treacherous political landscape back at home -- a well-funded Democratic opponent with a boffo resume, a rapidly diversifying and more liberal district, and, perhaps most critically, a constituency of well-educated and upper-income suburban voters who increasingly are turning on the president.

“His predicament underscores the grave danger confronting Republicans this fall. As the party braces for an electoral drubbing that threatens to wipe out the majority they won eight years ago, the list of incumbents under duress is growing ever longer — and even powerful lawmakers like Sessions, a sharp-elbowed tactician who hasn’t faced a serious reelection contest in over a decade, are suddenly trying to survive a Trump-fueled bloodbath. …

“I don’t think there’s any question that from time to time the president’s numbers are not where I’d like them to be,” he said, before adding that voters would distinguish him and other Texas Republicans on the 2018 ballot from Trump.” POLITICO

Good Friday morning. ABOUT PLAYBOOK ON THE ROAD … A number of you have sent in pictures to Daniel that just show the landscape on your trip or yourselves posing on your vacation. Send a photo of you reading Playbook to [email protected].

-- A-PLUS JOB by Playbook’s global correspondent LUKE RUSSERT, who sends this photo in from Fez, Morocco. Photo

WE SCOOPED yesterday that the CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND raised $3 million between July 1 and July 18. A big chunk of that money -- $1.5 million -- came from hedge fund billionaire KEN GRIFFIN, per the FEC report made public early this morning. Anheuser-Busch dropped $50,000.

THE HFC EFFECT -- “Trump’s pit bulls on Capitol Hill,” by Rachael Bade and Chris Cadelago: “President Donald Trump sat before a room full of House Republicans in June and praised the two men much of his audience despised the most: Mark Meadows and Jim Jordan.

“The pair of Freedom Caucus leaders had long been personae non gratae within the GOP Conference for deploying tactics that made leadership look feckless or worse. But Trump was either unaware of that or not interested: To him, the pair were his tough-talking unapologetic allies — and he was going to let everyone know it.

“‘He’s a warrior for me!’ Trump exclaimed of Jordan at the closed-door meeting, gushing over Jordan and Meadows’ performances defending him on TV. ‘Trump irritated 80 percent of the conference by effusively complimenting Meadows [and] Jordan,’ one lawmaker in the room texted POLITICO that day. The Freedom Caucus leaders, the person said grudgingly, ‘are emboldened by his praise.’” POLITICO

SNEAK PEEK … An early clip from the next episode of STEPHEN COLBERT and CHRIS LICHT’s “OUR CARTOON PRESIDENT,” which airs Sunday at 10:30 on Showtime. 1:37 YouTube clip

A message from Amazon: Amazon is investing $18 billion in 2020 on tools, services, programs, and people to help small and medium-sized businesses reach more customers worldwide. Learn how we're empowering independent sellers to grow and thrive.

POTENTIAL BOMBSHELL -- “Cohen claims Trump knew in advance of 2016 Trump Tower meeting,” by CNN’s Jim Sciutto, Carl Bernstein and Marshall Cohen: “Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump’s former personal attorney, claims that then-candidate Trump knew in advance about the June 2016 meeting in Trump Tower in which Russians were expected to offer his campaign dirt on Hillary Clinton, sources with knowledge tell CNN. Cohen is willing to make that assertion to special counsel Robert Mueller, the sources said.

“Cohen’s claim would contradict repeated denials by Trump, Donald Trump Jr., their lawyers and other administration officials who have said that the President knew nothing about the Trump Tower meeting until he was approached about it by The New York Times in July 2017.

“Cohen alleges that he was present, along with several others, when Trump was informed of the Russians’ offer by Trump Jr. By Cohen’s account, Trump approved going ahead with the meeting with the Russians, according to sources. To be clear, these sources said Cohen does not have evidence, such as audio recordings, to corroborate his claim, but he is willing to attest to his account.” CNN

-- “Trump Organization Finance Chief Called to Testify Before Federal Grand Jury,” by WSJ’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien, Rebecca Ballhaus, Michael Rothfeld and Alexandra Berzon: “Allen Weisselberg, a longtime financial gatekeeper for President Donald Trump, has been subpoenaed to testify before a federal grand jury in the criminal probe of Mr. Trump’s former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, according to people familiar with the investigation. Mr. Weisselberg is considered a witness in the investigation, the people said.

“It isn’t known whether he has already appeared before the grand jury or what questions prosecutors of New York’s Southern District have had for him. ... For decades, Mr. Weisselberg has served as executive vice president and chief financial officer at the Trump Organization, and was once described by a person close to the company as ‘the most senior person in the organization that’s not a Trump.’ After Mr. Trump was elected, he handed control of his financial assets and business interests to his two adult sons and Mr. Weisselberg.” WSJ

POLITICO Playbook newsletter Sign up today to receive the #1-rated newsletter in politics Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

WAPO’S ADAM TAYLOR and DAN LAMOTHE at OSAN AIR BASE in SOUTH KOREA: “U.S. military takes possession of remains that North Korea says belong to Americans who died in the Korean War”: “The U.S. Air Force C-17 aircraft departed for the Kalma Airport in the North Korean city of Wonsan before 6 a.m. Friday. It returned about 11 a.m. local time, where it was greeted by a crowd of several hundred U.S. service members and their families — U.S. service members from throughout South Korea had been invited to the event.

“The exchange means that one part of the agreement reached between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12 has been partially fulfilled — albeit more slowly than many had anticipated. … The remains are expected to remain at Osan for a few days for initial testing before a repatriation ceremony is held Aug. 1 and they are sent on to Hawaii.” WaPo

-- @realDonaldTrump at 11:50 p.m.: “The Remains of American Servicemen will soon be leaving North Korea and heading to the United States! After so many years, this will be a great moment for so many families. Thank you to Kim Jong Un.”

TROUBLE IN TURTLE BAY … NYT’S RICK GLADSTONE: “United Nations Leader Warns of a Cash Shortage”: “The secretary general of the United Nations said Thursday that its cash supply had been severely depleted because of what he described as delayed contributions by many member states, and he warned the organization’s employees that they must find ways to cut expenses.

“According to a tally known as the ‘honor roll’ on the United Nations website, 112 of the organization’s 193 members have paid their annual assessments in full. The United States, by far the biggest single contributor at 22 percent of the budget, has not yet paid, but diplomats said the Americans typically completed their payments toward the end of the year.” NYT … The ‘honor roll’

RUSSIA WATCH -- “Russian Hackers’ New Target: a Vulnerable Democratic Senator,” by the Daily Beast’s Andrew Desiderio and Kevin Poulsen: “The Russian intelligence agency behind the 2016 election cyberattacks targeted Sen. Claire McCaskill as she began her 2018 re-election campaign in earnest, a Daily Beast forensic analysis reveals.

“That makes the Missouri Democrat the first identified target of the Kremlin’s 2018 election interference. McCaskill, who has been highly critical of Russia over the years, is widely considered to be among the most vulnerable Senate Democrats facing re-election this year as Republicans hope to hold their slim majority in the Senate.” Daily Beast

BEHIND THE SCENES ... WAPO'S CAROL LEONNIG, ASHLEY PARKER, KAREEM FAHIM and KAREN DEYOUNG: "A fist bump, then a rancorous call: How Trump’s deal to free an American pastor in Turkey fell apart": "President Trump thought he had a deal.

"His NATO meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier this month had ended with a smile, a fist-bump and what Trump thought was an agreement to free Andrew Brunson, the American pastor imprisoned in Turkey for the last two years on what the administration considered bogus terrorism charges.

"The deal was a carom shot, personally sealed by Trump, to trade a Turkish citizen imprisoned on terrorism charges in Israel for Brunson’s release. But it apparently fell apart on Wednesday, when a Turkish court, rather than sending the pastor home, ordered that he be transferred to house arrest while his trial continues.

"Thursday morning, after a rancorous phone call with Erdogan, Trump struck back. The United States 'will impose large sanctions' on Turkey, he tweeted. 'This innocent man of faith should be released immediately.'" WaPo

THE INVESTIGATIONS …

-- “Paul Manafort called Ukrainian election ‘most satisfying’ campaign of career,” by WaPo’s Rachel Weiner: “For nearly a decade, Paul Manafort toiled in service of Ukrainian politician Viktor Yanukovych, work that is chronicled in hundreds of documents he is hoping to block jurors at his upcoming federal trial from seeing.

“The documents, released by Manafort’s defense Thursday in advance of his trial next week on bank and tax fraud charges, show how political operatives from both sides of the aisle use the lessons they learn on American campaigns for sometimes unsavory foreign clients. ‘Having worked campaigns for the last 35 years, this one will be at the top of the list of most satisfying,’ Manafort wrote a group of strategists after Yanukovych won a presidential election in 2010. The group included Tad Devine and Adam Strasberg, both of whom worked on the campaigns of Democratic presidential candidates John F. Kerry and Bernie Sanders.” WaPo

-- “Here’s The Evidence Paul Manafort Doesn’t Want A Jury To See About His Work In Ukraine,” by BuzzFeed’s Zoe Tillman and Chris Geidner: “Lawyers for former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort filed court papers Thursday asking a federal judge in Virginia to exclude more than 50 pieces of evidence the government has said it may introduce at trial related to Manafort's previous work in Ukraine.

“But the filing includes copies of all the exhibits Manafort doesn’t want a jury to see. The cache of documents largely includes emails and memos about campaign strategy and activities on behalf of former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, Manafort’s former client. It also includes photos of Yanukovych that special counsel Robert Mueller’s office said were taken at Manafort’s direction, draft political speeches, and memos about U.S.–Ukraine relations.” BuzzFeed

-- “Former Bernie Sanders consultant assisting Mueller investigation,” by Theo Meyer: “Tad Devine, a veteran Democratic operative who worked as a senior adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign, is assisting special counsel Robert Mueller in his prosecution of Paul Manafort, according to Devine's consulting firm.” POLITICO

-- “Avenatti: 3 women paid ‘hush money’ for Trump relationships,” by AP’s Michael Balsamo in West Hollywood, Calif.: “Michael Avenatti, the attorney for porn actress Stormy Daniels, said Thursday that he now represents three additional women who he says had relationships with President Donald Trump and were paid ‘hush money’ before the 2016 presidential election. Avenatti disclosed the information at a community forum in West Hollywood, California, but he would not provide additional information. Asked if he had evidence that the women had relationships with Trump, Avenatti said: ‘Yes.’” AP

SPOTTED: Mark Zuckerberg on a dinner date with wife Priscilla Chan, in a dimly lit back booth at Palo Alto’s Sundance the Steakhouse. Facebook’s stock dropped almost 19 percent yesterday. ... Andy Murray, in town for the Citi Open, eating “a ton of” sushi for lunch yesterday in front of the Whole Foods on P Street, according to our tipster ... Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) last night at a corner table at Le Diplomate ... Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) on Southwest flight 1260 from DCA to St. Louis.

THE JUICE …

-- MARIN COGAN is joining Pop-Up Magazine, the live magazine show, as a senior producer. Marin was a part of the POLITICO family early on, covering the GOP freshman class of 2010. She has worked for New York Magazine, ESPN and GQ, as well.

TRUMP’S FRIDAY -- The president is meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. He is later meeting with the National Security Council about election security. Later that afternoon, Trump and the first lady will head to Bedminster.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: A U.N. honor guard transports what are thought to be U.S. service members’ remains from North Korea at an air base in South Korea on Friday. | Ahn Young-joon/AP Photo

TRADE WARS -- REUTERS’ ANDY SULLIVAN: “U.S. Senate quietly votes to cut tariffs on hundreds of Chinese goods”: “As trade tensions escalate between Washington and Beijing, the U.S. Senate quietly passed legislation on Thursday that would lower trade barriers on hundreds of items made in China.

“With no debate, the Senate unanimously passed a bill that would cut or eliminate tariffs on toasters, chemicals and roughly 1,660 other items made outside the United States. Nearly half of those items are produced in China, according to a Reuters analysis of government records. ... The White House has not publicly taken a position on the so-called miscellaneous tariff bill, which has now passed both the Senate and the House of Representatives unanimously.” Reuters

HMM -- “In text to Arizona governor’s lawyer, Rep. Paul Gosar expressed interest in McCain seat,” by Arizona Republic’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: “A day after a December 2017 announcement that Sen. John McCain had been hospitalized for the ‘normal effects’ of cancer treatment, Arizona’s Rep. Paul Gosar was lobbying for McCain’s Senate seat.

“Gosar's chief of staff, Thomas Van Flein, conveyed the northern Arizona congressman’s interest in replacing McCain, R-Ariz., to Gov. Doug Ducey’s then-attorney, Mike Liburdi. If McCain’s seat were to open, because of his resignation or death, the sitting governor would appoint his Republican successor. The brief text exchange began at 11:56 a.m. Dec. 14, less than 24 hours after news reports of McCain’s hospitalization in Bethesda, Maryland.” Arizona Republic

A message from Amazon: Building a single store. Learn how we partnered with independent sellers to build the Amazon store.

MEDIAWATCH -- “Justice Department Investigates TV Station Owners Over Advertising Sales,” by WSJ’s Drew FitzGerald and Keach Hagey: “The Justice Department is investigating whether television station owners violated antitrust law in ways that inflated local television advertising prices, according to people familiar with the matter.

“The probe has examined whether Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc., Tribune Media Co. and other independent TV station owners coordinated efforts when their ad sales teams communicated with each other about their performance, potentially leading to higher rates for TV commercials ... Companies like Sinclair and Tribune own dozens of local TV stations that carry programming from national broadcast networks like ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox.” WSJ

SUNDAY SO FAR …

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sam Nunberg … Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) … Michael Isikoff. Panel: Matt Continetti, Eddie Glaude, Jr., Andrea Mitchell and Peggy Noonan

ABC “This Week”: Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) … Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) … Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio). Legal panel: Dan Abrams and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Political panel: Rick Klein, Dan Balz, Mara Gay and Mary Jordan

CBS “Face the Nation”: Rudy Giuliani … Larry Kudlow … Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) … Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). Panel: Anne Gearan, Ed O’Keefe, Shannon Pettypiece and Salena Zito

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rudy Giuliani … Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Panel: Jonah Goldberg, Gillian Turner, Jonathan Swan and Mo Elleithee

FOX “MediaBuzz”: Sara Fischer …Guy Benson … Adrienne Elrod … Morgan Ortagus … Bill Press … Brent Lang … Charles Gasparino

FOX “Sunday Morning Futures”: Vice President Mike Pence … Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.)

CNN “Inside Politics”: Abby Phillip, Mike Shear, Mary Katharine Ham and Phil Mattingly

CNN “State of the Union”: Larry Kudlow … Anthony Scaramucci … Mitch Landrieu. Panel: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), David Urban, Nina Turner and Amanda Carpenter (“Gaslighting America: Why We Love It When Trump Lies to Us”)

CNN “Fareed Zakaria GPS”: Reuel Marc Gerecht and Trita Parsi … Husain Haqqani (“Reimagining Pakistan: Transforming a Dysfunctional Nuclear State”) and Laurel Miller … Yale University Comparative Cognition Laboratory director Laurie Santos

CNN “Reliable Sources”: Ronan Farrow … Carl Bernstein … Jessica Rosenworcel … Olivier Knox and Katie Rogers … S.E. Cupp.

Univision “Al Punto”: Parents reunited with their child (Johan Bueso) Adalicia Montecinos and Rolando Bueso … President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador transition team member Tatiana Clouthier … Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) … musician Luis Enrique … author Cecilia Ramírez Harris

C-SPAN “The Communicators”: British conservative member of European Parliament Syed Kamall, questioned by David Shepardson … “Newsmakers”: Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), questioned by Lisa Mascaro and Anne Gearan … “Q&A”: author and constitutional lawyer David Stewart (“Impeached: The Trial of President Andrew Johnson and the Fight for Lincoln’s Legacy”)

MSNBC “Kasie DC”: Alan Dershowitz … Katie Arrington … Sam Stein … Ken Vogel … Seung Min Kim … Maria Teresa Kumar … Guy Cecil … Paul Butler … Mimi Rocah … Sara Fischer … Jo Ling Kent

Washington Times “Mack on Politics” weekly politics podcast with Matt Mackowiak (download on iTunes, Google Play, or Stitcher or listen at MackOnPolitics.com ): Randy Barnett.

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED at an MPAA screening last night of Paramount Pictures’ “Mission: Impossible – Fallout” at The National Archives (trailer): Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Hilary Geary Ross, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Reps. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.) and Lacy Clay (D-Mo.), Ambassadors Charles Rivkin, Georgette Mosbacher, Paula Dobriansky, Wolfgang Waldner, Alexander Wolff, Kurt Jaeger and Kåre Aas …

... Robert Shapiro, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, William and Lynda Webster, Margaret Carlson, Bob Woodward, Shane Harris, Lisa Monaco, DeDe Lea, Karen Donfried, Eric Fanning, Kimball Stroud, Yebbie Watkins, Bob Woodward, Lyndon Boozer, Eric Fanning and Ben Masri-Cohen, Ashley and Ben Chang, Francesca Craig and Susan Toffler.

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): National Journal’s Drew Gerber (hat tip: Zach Cohen)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Alex Wirth, co-founder and CEO of Quorum. How he got his start in his career: "After sitting on the youth advisory councils of DoSomething.org, Youth Service America, State Farm and the DNC, I decided to start the Campaign for a Presidential Youth Council. My time on the Hill advocating for a Presidential Youth Council was part of what inspired Jonathan [Marks] and I to develop Quorum, the public affairs software startup that I run.” Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Priscilla Painton, executive editor at Simon & Schuster, is 6-0 ... FusionGPS’ Neil King (h/t Tim Burger) ... Andy Spahn … BuzzFeed’s Paul McLeod … Allison Moore ... Jeremy Berkowitz, principal at Promontory Financial Group, is 35 ... Natalie Raabe, director of comms at The New Yorker ... Susan Durrwachter ... former Commerce Secretary Don Evans is 72 … Rep. William Lacy Clay (D-Mo.) is 62 ... Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.) is 54 ... Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) is 59 ... Cecilia Muñoz, VP at New America and former director of the Obama WH Domestic Policy Council ... Berin Szóka ... Parag Khanna is 41 ... David Spielfogel ... Lauren Durham ... WaPo’s Sarah Feinberg … Amy Tilley ... SIFMA’s Bo Ollison ... Aaron Lichtig is 38 ... Johanna Persing, RNC’s director of media affairs, is 3-0 (h/ts Cassie Smedile and Ryan Mahoney) … Georgie Whatmore ... Jonathan Strong is 35 ... Justin LoFranco is 32 (h/t Kurt Bardella) … Lauren Aratani ... Sean Savett, press secretary for Sen. Duckworth … Adam Mohabbat ... Alex Andrew (h/t Sarah Westwood) ...

… Jeremy Adler, comms director for Speaker Ryan’s political operation, is 26 (h/t Olivia Perez-Cubas) ... media and public affairs consultant Charlie McKell (h/t wife Rachel Ryan McKell) … Seth Waugh, celebrating in London (h/t JR) ... Andrew Grossman, managing partner at Grossman Heinz, is 5-0 (h/t Mark Bergman) … Bobby Saparow ... Anna Raquel Vetter … Salvatore Colleluori … John Connell, COS for Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) (h/t Amy Graham) ... Morgan Shoaff … PJ Wenzel ... Jeremy Deutsch, COS for House Republican Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers ... Juan Mejia (h/t Ali Swee) ... Nicholas Barnabò ... Saumitra Thakur ... Sofia Gerard ... Bain’s Andrew Grossman ... Ben Rothenberg is 36 ... Ed Cohen ... Maya Goines ... Elizabeth Arledge … Jamie Sullivan … Phong Ngo … Heather Piedmont ... Gaurav Parikh ... Susan Phalen ... Paul Caron is 61 ... Dennis Lewis ... Carrie Ann Alford ... Diana Allen ... Katie Wheelbarger … Sally Adams … Degee Wilhelm (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)



A message from Amazon: Retail is a thriving, competitive, and highly-fragmented market where both buyers and small sellers have more choices than ever before. At Amazon, we welcome this competition. It sharpens our focus, feeds our creativity, and fuels our drive to innovate for customers. Learn more.

Follow us on Twitter Anna Palmer @apalmerdc



Jake Sherman @JakeSherman