2018 Rhode Island Primary Preview

Continuing our week of three primaries in a row, Rhode Island will go to the polls today. Polls close at 8p ET and we will have a brief liveblog. Flip over for Legislative Primary Previews!

RI-Gov (D, R) : Atop the ballot, both sides have three-way primaries for the gubernatorial race.

Incumbent Gina Raimondo (D) is seeking a second term. Raimondo is a Rhodes Scholar and venture capitalist who served as State Treasurer before becoming Governor. She is a moderate liberal, particularly on fiscal issues. As Treasurer, she was known for spearheading a successful pension-reform proposal, and ran an aggressive investment strategy with state funds, which led to critics considering her to be in the pocket of Wall Street. During her gubernatorial tenure, she has primarily pursued economic-development initiatives, especially corporate incentives – a controversial topic in the state after a failed video game company lost $75M in state funds a decade ago. Raimondo is not exactly in step with the state’s energized liberal grassroots. However, Rhode Island has perhaps the largest proportion of DINOs of any northeastern state, and the Governor starts with a solid base in that contingent. She also has strong establishment support, particularly from unions. But discontent with the Governor on the left is real and could form a base for her two more left-wing rivals.

Ex-SoS Matt Brown (D) is Raimondo’s principal rival. Brown served a term as SoS from 2002 to 2006 before retiring for an abortive Senate bid. He then largely went dark from the state’s political scene, running a left-wing anti-nuclear weapons nonprofit. Brown jumped back into the arena this year to challenge Raimondo, running as a bold progressive. He has found a modest amount support from the party’s liberal wing, most notably endorsements from far-left groups and left-wing ex-Gov. Lincoln Chafee (D). Brown has also raised enough to run a serious campaign, though his hauls trail Raimondo’s. But mostly Brown is banking on left-wing grassroots enthusiasm from liberals disenchanted with the state’s moderate Dem establishment to allow him to prevail.

Ex-State Rep. Spencer Dickinson (D) represented an exurban to rural district in the southern part of the state around Wakefield-Peacedale for four years; he had also previously represented the area in the 70s. Dickinson narrowly lost his re-election bid in the 2014 primary, and lost a comeback bid two years later. He has some modest name recognition and is running as a bold progressive. However, his campaign has been poorly funded and he has little institutional support. Dickinson’s main impact is likely to be peeling off a couple points of left-wing anti-Raimondo votes from Brown.

Overall, Raimondo is still the clear favorite in the primary, between the state’s base of moderates and her cash and incumbency. Raimondo has basically been attempting to run out the clock in this race and largely ignoring her primary rivals. However, Brown could have a slight chance to surprise on left-wing enthusiasm. Republicans also have three contenders, but a clear front-runner.

Cranston Mayor and 2014 nominee Allan Fung (R) is considered the front-runner for the nomination a second time. The son of Chinese immigrants, Fung has served as Mayor of the state’s third-largest city for a decade. He lost by a 41-36 margin to Raimondo in a multi-way race four years ago; then as now, he is generally running as an establishment conservative with some slight moderate tendencies. Fung has been well-funded, outpacing his intra-party rivals in fundraising by a large margin, and has a large majority of GOP establishment support. Fung has considered his primary position strong enough that he is already looking ahead to the general election, going after Raimondo in rhetoric and ads far more than his GOP rivals. However, he still must get past two other Republicans in the primary.

State Rep. Patricia Morgan (R) has represented a suburban seat in Warwick for eight years, rising to become House Minority Leader. Morgan is a moderate conservative and has some institutional connections, but she has largely been passed over for establishment support and funds in favor of Fung. While Morgan is more moderate than Fung, she has attempted to pivot to an antiestablishment mantle in the race, criticizing Fung as a career politician and insider. The gambit seems a stretch though, not the least because Morgan’s own soft-spoken personality makes selling herself as an insurgent a stylistic challenge. As a result, Morgan’s campaign has not received much traction.

Ex-State Sen. and 1994 LG nominee Giovanni Feroce (R) served a term in the State Senate before mounting an unsuccessful run for LG in 1994. Since then, he dropped out of politics in the state, moving to Delaware and running for State Senate there in 2006, before returning for this race. In the interim, Feroce also served a tour in Iraq and worked as the CEO of jewelry maker Alex & Ani. He is running as an antiestablishment ideological conservative, particularly on fiscal issues. However, Feroce’s campaign has been underfunded and he has little institutional support, and he looks unlikely to be a major factor.

Overall, it would be a surprise if Fung did not win the primary easily, though Morgan may take a significant vote share. In the general, the GOP nominee will face an additional wrinkle in a third significant candidate. Ex-State Rep. Joe Trillo (I) is a former Republican who represented a suburban seat in Warwick for a decade and a half before retiring in 2016. Trillo is a staunch Trumpist who served as state Trump campaign chair. He was initially running in the GOP primary before defecting in a sour-grapes moment to run an Indie spoiler campaign. Trillo’s campaign has been poorly funded, but any votes he take will come directly out of the GOP nominee’s pocket.

Overall, due to the lean of the state and year, and especially with Trillo playing spoiler, the Dem nominee still looks likely to be a slight favorite in the general. However, Raimondo has been moderately unpopular overall due to the state’s underperfoming economy, which could leave her vulnerable. Polling has shown Fung and Raimondo neck and neck, and the race is looking like one of the few legitimate Republican gubernatorial pickup opportunities. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

RI-LG (D) : The only other seriously-contested statewide primary is for the separately-elected LG seat, where Democrats have a real race.

Incumbent Dan McKee (D) is seeking a second term. McKee, who previously served as mayor of the suburb of Cumberland, is known as a member of the state Democrats’ sizeable moderate faction. He won the primary four years ago with a 43% plurality as two more liberal candidates split the vote. While he has generallly emphasized consumer-protection issues in this low-powered office, McKee is also known as a fiscal conservative and is pro-charter schools. Those positions have left an opening for a tough challenge from his left.

State Rep. Aaron Regunberg (D) is McKee’s challenger and running to the left as a bold progressive. Regunberg is a 28-year old who has represented an urban seat in Providence for four years. He has fundraised very well, outraising McKee by a significant margin. He has also poached a large chunk of establishment support, landing endorsements from a large number of unions, a sizeable chunk of the legislative caucus, and far-left groups like Our Revolution.

There is also a non-serious Some Dude in the race. Overall, there is no clear favorite in the race – McKee’s incumbency and name recognition is powerful, but Regunberg’s campaign seems well-funded and well-connected enough that I might actually peg the challenger as a marginal front-runner. The primary winner will be favored in the general over engineer Paul Pence (R), who also publishes a small magazine. Pence seems a somewhat credible candidate, but has no name recognition and is likely to face a prohibitively uphill race against either Dem given the terrain of the state and year. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

Other Statewide Races : Rhode Island also has four statewide races without seriously-contested primaries.

RI-Sen : Incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse (D) is seeking a third term. Whitehouse has been a vocal member of the caucus’s bold progressive wing in DC. While not as popular as his broadly-liked senior colleague Jack Reed (D), Whitehouse is nevertheless a decent fit for his deep-blue state. Whitehouse’s rival is ex-State Supreme Court Justice Bob Flanders (R), who faces token opposition in the GOP primary. Flanders is a decent recruit for the GOP by the long-shot standards of the race. He touts his blue-collar upbringing, is running as an establishment conservative, and has fundraised well, aided by some modest self-funding. However, Whitehouse is an entrenched incumbent in a blue state and Dem-friendly year, and thus this race does not look likely to be a particularly competitive one. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

RI-SoS : Incumbent Nellie Gorbea (D) is seeking a second term. Gorbea has been a non-controversial mainstream liberal in office, and is the prohibitive favorite for re-election. She faces token opposition from security guard Pat Cortellessa (R), who has run some asterisk-level campaigns for Mayor of Providence and apparently has some mafia ties. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

RI-AG : The AG’s seat is open as incumbent Peter Killmartin (D) is termed-out and retiring. Ex-US Attorney Peter Neronha (D) is unopposed in the primary and functionally unopposed in the general, facing only two Some Dude Indies. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

RI-Treas : Incumbent Seth Magaziner (D) is seeking a second term. Magaziner is perhaps better known as the son of Bill Clinton aide Ira Magaziner. He is a bold progressive and the 35-year old is generally considered a rising star by the state’s left. Magaziner should be a prohibitive favorite for a second term over 2012 RI-2 nominee Michael Riley (R). Riley ran a credible campaign for State Senate in 2010 and a sacrificial lamb run for Congress two years later. He does not seem to be running a particularly strong campaign and should be little threat to Magaziner. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

Flip over for Legislative Primary Previews!

Rhode Island Senate:

RI-SD-1 (D) is a D+28 seat covering neighborhoods immediately north and west of downtown Providence. Longtime incumbent Maryellen Goodwin (D) should be a strong favorite over financial analyst Michael Guzman (D).

RI-SD-5 (D) is a D+32 seat covering neighborhoods of west-central Providence around Federal Hill. Incumbent Paul Jabour (D), a moderate, is facing two more liberal challengers. Geologist Sam Bell (D) is also a prominent local left-wing activist and has institutional support from those connections, while state official Nick Autiello (D), is well-funded, but has been hit for previously being a Republican. Vote-splitting between his challengers probably leaves Jabour a moderate favorite, but either Bell or Autiello could pull the upset.

RI-SD-6 (D) is a D+40 seat covering the southeast part of Providence, as well as a chunk of the Hope neighborhood north of downtown. Incumbent Harold Metts (D), an establishment liberal, faces two challengers in left-wing architect Jonathan Hernandez (D) and nurse assistant Carlos Cedeno (D). Metts should be a moderately strong favorite, but Hernandez could have a slight chance to pull the upset.

RI-SD-7 (D) is a D+22 seat along the western edge of Providence, near Rhode Island College. Incumbent Frank Ciccone (D) should be a strong favorite over left-wing manager Shannon Donahue (D).

RI-SD-14 (D) is an open D+13 covering the urban western half of East Providence. Three Dems are facing off: bold progressive teacher and union official Val Lawson (D), moderate insurance agent and veteran Delmar Condinho (D), and Deborah Perry (D), the chair of the local YWCA organization. All three are serious and there is no clear favorite.

RI-SD-17 (D) is an R+3 seat in suburbs around Lincoln. between Providence and Woonsocket. Two Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Thomas Paolino (R) in a competitive general. 2016 candidates Dennis Lavalee (D) and Keven McKenna (D) are both vying for another shot after losing the primary two years ago. McKenna was a State Rep. in the 80s but has since become a bit of a perennial candidate known for filing frivolous lawsuits. Lavalee took 26% two years ago to McKenna’s 20% and should be favored for the nomination this time.

RI-SD-21 (R) is an open R+11 seat in the rural west-central part of the state around Scituate. Foster councilman Gordon Rogers (R) looks like a moderate favorite over pro-life group executive Julie Lamin (R), but an upset is possible.

RI-SD-22 (D) is a D-held R+4 seat in northwest Providence suburbs around Smithfield. Incumbent Steve Archambault (D), an establishment liberal, is facing a challenge from his left from bold progressive technical writer Melanie Dupont (D). The third candidate in the primary, Stephen Tocco (D), seems to be a non-serious stalking horse for his son, ex-Smithfield councilman Gregory Tocco (R), the GOP nominee. The general will likely be competitive.

RI-SD-23 (R, D) is an open D-held R+10 seat at the rural northwest corner of the state around Glocester and Burrillville. Burrillville councilman John Pacheco (R) looks like a slight favorite over homemaker Jessica de la Cruz (R), but an upset is possible. For Dems, judge and ex-Burrillville councilman Kevin Heitke (D), a moderate, looks like a slight favorite over nonprofit exec Paul Roselli (D), who was running an asterisk-level primary challenge to Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) before dropping down to this race. The GOP nominee will probably start as the favorite in a strong pickup opportunity for Republicans.

RI-SD-24 (D) is an open D+2 seat covering western Woonsocket. Woonsocket councilwoman Melissa Murray (D), a bold progressive, should be a strong favorite over manager Carol Frisk (D). Republicans are shamefully not contesting this seat, though there are three Indies running; it’s unclear how serious they will be.

RI-SD-29 (D) is a D+1 seat covering the northeast part of Warwick. Incumbent Michael McCaffrey (D), the Senate Majority Leader and a moderate liberal, should be a moderately strong favorite over state Dem official Jennifer Rourke (D), who is running as a bold progressive. However, an upset may be a slight possibility. Republicans are shamefully not contesting this seat.

RI-SD-30 (D) is a D-held R+1 seat covering the southeast part of Warwick. Incumbent Jeanine Calkin (D) is a bold progressive who narrowly ousted an incumbent in the primary two years ago. She is facing a serious challenge from attorney and zoning board member Mark McKenney (D), a moderate liberal who had strong ties to the late prior incumbent. The two have split establishment support; Calkin’s incumbency probably makes her a slight favorite but an upset is very possible. Republicans are shamefully not contesting this seat.

RI-SD-35 (D) is an open R-held D+4 seat in the southern part of the state, stretching a thin strip from East Greenwich to Narragansett Pier. Nonprofit exec and local Dem official Bridget Valverde (D), a bold progressive, should be the clear favorite for the nomination. She is facing 90s-era ex-State Sen. Greg Acciardo (D), who represented a district in the Providence suburbs for eight years and has some institutional support – but also a long criminal record , including convictions for vehicular manslaughter, DUI, and harboring a fugitive. The nominee will face businesswoman Dana Gee (R), the wife of the outgoing incumbent, in a competitive general.

RI-SD-36 (D) is a D+6 seat around North Kingstown, west of Newport. Incumbent Jim Sheehan (D), a moderate who was active in the Reform Party in the 90s, is facing a challenge from his left in therapist Alana DiMario (D). Sheehan looks like a moderate favorite but an upset is possible. The nominee will be favored over artist John Silvaggio (R) in the general.