Troops move points to Russian reversal in Tajikistan

By Olzhas Auyezov

DUSHANBE, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Russia's efforts to re-assert its influence in ex-Soviet Central Asia and gain advantage over the United States appear to have run into problems in Tajikistan, a country previously heavily dependent on Moscow.

Just two months after offering to reinforce Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan, Russia has now pulled its troops in the opposite direction, a reversal which may mean Moscow's political clout is waning along with its economic power.

Central Asia's strategic location and natural resources have given rise to a tussle for diplomatic supremacy between Russia, the United States and China. For the United States, its proximity to Afghanistan is key. For Russia, it is a buffer zone against Islamism. For China, it is a source of energy.

The relocation of the 149th motor rifle regiment from the city of Kulyab, located 42 kilometres from the Afghan border, to the capital Dushanbe, about 200 kilometres further away, was completed on Tuesday, Russia's Defence Ministry said.

It said in a statement the move was aimed at improving the combat effectiveness of its military group in Tajikistan, which is Russia's biggest army base abroad with 6,000-7,000 in total personnel.

But it has puzzled observers since it goes against Moscow's declared aim of securing the former Soviet Union's southern borders.

"The redeployment of troops ... came as something of a surprise," said Edward Lemon, a Tajikistan-focused researcher at the University of Exeter.

It came after Russia, citing concerns over the Afghan border, slowly increased its military strength in Tajikistan, securing the stay of the 201st motorized division until 2042, Lemon said. Russia calls the unit a base, although it operates two separate facilities, in Dushanbe and Kurgan-Tyube.

Moscow also announced a deal earlier this year that would eventually increase troop strength to 9,000, and included a $1 billion assistance package for Tajikistan.

WANING BARGAINING POWER?

But the only officially announced reinforcements so far have come in the form of an undisclosed number of attack and transport helicopters deployed at the Ayni air base 10 kilometres west of Dushanbe. The Ayni base itself, hidden behind a decrepit-looking fence and a barbed-wire perimeter, remains under Tajikistan's control.

Tajik servicemen often walk outside to buy food from street vendors who say planes and helicopters fly regularly from the base, though it is impossible to tell whether they are Tajik or Russian. The base has no Russian flags on display at the main entrance, unlike the main 201st division facilities in Dushanbe.

A Western diplomat said that Imomali Rakhmon, the Tajik president, had for a long time been resisting the arrival of more Russian troops, and there was no sign that position would change.

Russia's plans may have been thwarted because the Tajik authorities are holding out for more money from Moscow, according to Lemon.

A spokesman for the base declined to provide any additional comments on its relocation and further plans. Spokesmen for Tajikistan's foreign and defence ministries also declined to comment on the move or on any possible plans to replace Russian troops that have left Kulyab with Tajik servicemen.

It could also be that Tajikistan, which has long relied heavily on remittances from its citizens working in Russia, simply sees little further benefit in playing ball with Moscow as the Russian economy shrinks, Lemon said.

"With remittances expected to fall between 30 and 40 percent as a result of Russia's economic crisis, Russia is losing some of its bargaining power with the Tajiks, whose economy is increasingly reliant on ties with China instead," Lemon said.

Russia's gross domestic product is forecast to fall by around 4 percent this year, because of the impact of low world oil prices, compounded by Western sanctions imposed over the conflict in Ukraine that have made it harder for Russian companies to gain access to Western credit.

Another researcher, Dushanbe-based Kamoludin Abdullaev, said the Russian move could be a form of blackmail.

"My guess: this was an attempt to put pressure on the Tajik government and make it feel insecure and Russia-dependent versus the possible Afghan-Pakistani jihadi spillover," he said.

It is not clear whether Dushanbe has secured alternative sources of financial aid for its economy. The country's foreign reserves stood at just one month of imports in early July, according to the World Bank.

However, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry who visited Dushanbe last month said at the time that "the economic challenge that Tajikistan faces right now as a result of the downturn in the economy of Russia as well as China" was among the issues he discussed with President Rakhmon.