After a couple of months of not even attempting to blog, I am back with what I hope to be a new series of mini-blogs. In these, I will be analyzing teams 2020 non-conference schedule starting with Butler. They released their non-conference slate Monday, June 3rd, and oh boy it is a tough one, but first let’s get to know the team Butler is coming into the 2020 season with.

Team Makeup

Butler was one of the if not the most disappointing team for me last season, I had them ranked at the beginning of the season, and even after their sluggish non-con I still managed to keep them in my bracketology’s until the very end. They finished a miserable 16-17 and lost in the first round of the NIT. This season does not look much better especially with a much stronger Big East. They lost both of their centers this offseason to graduation or transfer and also lose Pau Jorgensen the senior PG from last year.

Not all his bleak however as they return all Big East performer, Kemar Baldwin for his senior season. Former Duke commit Jordan Tucker is in his second season with the club and junior Aaron Thompson is set to take a big step up. In regards to newcomers, the Bulldogs bring in four new faces. Khalif Battle, the 92nd overall recruit in the class of 2019 is a highly-athletic and aggressive shooting guard with a smooth perimeter jumper to go with a high defensive ceiling and should be a valuable reserve immediately. John-Michael-Mulloy (305th overall recruit) is expected to redshirt his freshman year. Milwaukee transfer Bryce Nze sat out last season and should be a day one starter. He is known as a rebounder and shot-blocker, two areas where the Bulldogs are desperate for. Another big man, Derrick Smits, a 7-3 grad transfer from Valparaiso should contribute valuable time off the bench and fill in depth at the five spot. Despite posting a high foul rate, he had a high block percentage and showed flashes of scoring in the post. I expect more of the same this season, an NIT bid and a 7-9 finish in the Big East.

After that overview let’s get to the schedule.

November 6th, vs IUPUI

To start off the season Butler has a relative cupcake in IUPUI. The Panthers showed flashes last season even defeating Boston College, but could never put it together in conference play as they failed to even qualify for Motor City Madness (Horizon’s conference tournament). They lose their starting SG and leading scorer Cameron Justice who averaged 18.6 ppg, he grad transferred to Western Kentucky. Overall would be a good warm-up game to start the year.

Prediction: Butler wins easy

November 9th, vs New Orleans

Another cupcake, the Privateers were a bottom of the pack Southland team and don’t have much going for them this season. I don’t really have much of anything to say.

Prediction: Butler wins easy

November 12th, vs Minnesota

Butler's first real test of the season comes in the Gavitt Games as the Golden Gophers come to town. Minnesota was hit hard by the news that Amir Coffey would forgo his senior season to enter the NBA draft. Already losing one of the best big men in the country in Jordan Murphy, the prospects of a top ten B10 finish is looking very bleak for a team that went to the second round last year. The whole team is full of question marks at the moment. I do think Butler can snag their first win against a power conference team this game. Except for Jordan Tucker to be the X-factor this game as Minnesota’s wing depth is abysmal.

Prediction: Butler wins in a semi-close game

November 16th, vs Wofford

Wofford had its best year in program history last season. They finished 29-5 including a 21 game win streak, they earned a seven seed and managed to knock off Seton Hall before falling short against Kentucky. Now the Terriers lose a lot from last year, Fletcher Magee and Cameron Jackson were two of their best players of all-time. They also lose their coach, Mike Young was the heart and soul of that program but he has moved onto Virginia Tech. What’s left? Not much, Nathan Hoover returns and he will be one of the top scorers in the Southern conference but a lot of last years team either graduated or transferred. Butler should have its way physically and Wofford’s defense will not be able to stop Kemar Baldwin.

Prediction: Butler wins relatively easily

November 22, vs Morehead St

This game wraps up their five-game home stretch to start the season. Morehead St finished 6th in the OVC last season and not much more is expected this year. While they have had good teams in the past don’t expect them to put up much of a fight.

Prediction: Butler wins easy

November 25th and November 26th, Hall Of Fame Classic: Stanford // Oklahoma // Missouri

For Feast Week, the Bulldogs are traveling to Kansas City Missouri. None of these opponents are resume killers, but none of these teams should be giant killers. Let’s start with the weakest team here, Stanford. The Cardinals have been in a rough spot as of late having not made the tournament in some while, but keep losing top talent to the draft or the transfer market. This season it was guard KZ Okpala averaged 17 points and five rebounds in his freshman year, he is off to the draft and should be a first-round pick. This leaves the cupboard bare for a team that finished under .500 in a miserable Pac-12. Butler’s ability to make shots should give them an advantage if they were to play the Cardinals.

Next, the Oklahoma Sooners, they should be the best team out of these four and are the only one I would place in the NCAA tournament field if I had to make a Bracketology. Despite leading scorer, Christian James graduating. They return Brady Manek, Kristian Doolittle, and Jamal Beleimeny. All key players from a 20 win and second-round tournament team. They bring in the 24th overall recruiting class, headlined by 5th overall PG De’Voin Hamon who should be an instant contributor. I would favor the Sooners in this game, but not by much. The wing battle should be very intense and the highlight of this game, and Lon Kruger teams often play tantalizing defense. Where I think Butler loses this is down low, I do not see their depleted size holding up against OU. Finally, we wrap it up with Missouri, they had an abysmal season last year finishing 5-13 in the SEC, they lose top scorer Jordan Geist but return six of their top eight scorers. LaVall Jordan easily wins the coaching battle as Cuonzo Martin should not be making game-time decisions for a power-five team and is overall just a bad coach. I expect Kamar Baldwin and Jeremiah Tilmon to each have huge games and for the game to be sloppy. This game is probably too close to call five months before it occurs, but I would give the Bulldogs a slight advantage.

Predictions: Beat Stanford, Lose to Oklahoma, beat Missouri

November 3rd, @Ole Miss

Butler is traveling on the road in the second part of this home and home, they beat Ole Miss in Indiana last year and no travel down south to face the Rebels. Kermit Davis brought a rebuild around this team in lightning speed managing to pull them to a nine seed last season despite being picked to finish last in the SEC. While losing Terrence Davis will certainly hurt, Breein Tyree is poised to break out as one of the SEC’s elite guards and Kermit’s players are just now starting to come in. Both these teams should have similar expectations of being around the bubble. Baldwin v Tyree should be a prime time guard matchup and I expect the game to be very enjoyable to watch. Like most of Butler’s games, I expect this to come down to if they can win down low. Ole Miss’ bigs aren’t stellar but are definitely more talented than Butler’s, that and home court advantage should be enough to give the Rebels the win.

Prediction: Butler loses close

December 7th, vs Florida

Another second piece of home and home, Butler traveled to Gainesville last season and got smoked. Butler has not changed much, but Florida should be immensely better. The consensus number two team in the SEC behind Kentucky the Gators have the talent to go deep this March. Despite losing talented senior Jalen Hudson, Andrew Nembhard headlines a talented sophomore class that is poised to break out, with Nembhard himself having All-American potential. They are joined by a top recruiting class featuring multiple five and four stars. The most important one, Scottie Lewis a likely one and done who will more than likely dominate the paint against the Bulldogs. Realistically Butler does not have a chance, they are far and away outmatched physically and skill wise. Their big will be eaten down low, and the Gators defense is relenting enough to stop Thompson and Baldwin on the perimeter. This will not go down as a bad loss resume wise, and if Butler manages to defy the odds and escape with a victory it would be a massive bubble booster, but I do think this gets ugly.

Prediction: Butler loses in a kind-of close game

December 10th, @Baylor

Baylor was one of the most surprising teams in college basketball last year. After a horrid non-con that included losses to Whichita St, Stephen F Austin, and Texas Southern as well as an injury to Tristan Clark, the teams leading scorer at the time. Then in B12 play, they went on an absolute tear going on a five-game winning streak. They finished the season as a nine seed and made it two the second round defeating Syracuse. While they lose leading scorer Makai Mason, as well as King McClure, everyone else is back and they get a full season of Tristan Clark. The Bears have begun appearing on pre-season top 25’s and are looking like a contender to make the second weekend, this could be a big opportunity for coach Jordan. Unfortunately, Scott Drew’s teams are always in the top of offensive rebounding categories, even when the teams' big men aren’t physically imposing. Butler had trouble rebounding down the stretch next year, and it is expected to be a problem this year. Combined with the fact that the game is in Waco, a hostile environment gives damning evidence that the Bears defeat the Bulldogs.

Butler loses in a game that is not close, but not a blowout

December 14th, vs Southern

After that absolutely grueling stretch of five games, Butler gets practically a rest game in the second to last non-con game. Southern is part of the SWAC, like most SWAC teams they support the program by going to big-name programs and getting paid to play them. If Butler loses this then they just might as well forfeit their Big-East schedule.

Prediction: Butler Wins easy

November 21st, vs* Purdue

To end the non-con, Butler has their annual crossroads classic game, an Indiana competition featuring Indiana, Butler, Purdue, and Notre Dame. Last time the Bulldogs matched up against Indiana and lost on a heart-wrenching buzzer beater. This year they face Purdue, now this is not the Purdue team last year that was seconds away from a final four. Last years catalyst, Carsen Edwards is gone. But the Boilermakers return a majority of production from last year, it would not be unexpected if they finished top five in the B12. Derrek Smits will have to come up huge this game if they want to have a chance of winning. Matt Harms is over seven foot and a dominating force inside, Smits is the only one that could stop him. After that, the matchups might work a little in Butler’s favor. Nojel Eastern is a terrific defender, but his lateral quickness is just a bit to slow to stop Baldwin. Jordan Tucker has the physicality to stop Trevon Williams. While at first glance it looks like an easy Purdue victory, don’t be so surprised if Butler keeps it close.

Prediction: Butler loses a close game

Final conclusion

This would put Butler’s record at 8-4 or 7-5, while the record alone won’t hold up to tournament standards. This is a gauntlet of a schedule and puts them in a situation to sneak into the bubble barring something drastic happening. Props to LaVall Jordan for scheduling this, loads of good matchups to watch.

#featureworthy

#botw