If you know me, you know I don’t really care about end-of-year lists. So instead of looking at 2014, I’ve decided to look at 2004. No, I will not be posting a list, I’m just glancing at stuff. There is no list here.

I always find it interesting to see how well a film holds up years later, which I think is the only real judge of quality in filmmaking.

Earlier on Twitter, I posted two images. One is a comparison of 2004 worldwide box office to the 2004 Village Voice aggregated film poll: http://imgur.com/03HhFAO

The other is a bunch of individual American film critics’ lists from 2004: http://imgur.com/DWWpHsA

After checking out some 2004 films again, I (completely unscientifically) made these conclusions:

1) Important Movies / Oscar Bait Do Not Last

If somebody tells you a film is capital-I Important, you can bet we’ll have forgotten it by next year (see also: Argo) (see also also: Stanley Kramer).

The Aviator

Fahrenheit 9/11

Hotel Rwanda

Million Dollar Baby

Sideways

2) That Movie with Great Performances? Also doesn’t last

Initially, actors help determine how likely we are to leave a house to see a film, but 10 years later, it hardly matters. I don’t know a single person who would rather watch Jamie Foxx in Ray than Jamie Foxx in Collateral. Because adapt, improvise, Darwin, shit happens, I Ching, whatever man.

All of these films were nominated/campaigned for acting awards:

Being Julia

Closer

Finding Neverland

Kinsey

Ray

3) Comedies Have Crazy Longevity

There’s something about laughter that makes a movie “stick.” Even if you dislike these films, their quotes, jokes and impact are very palpable even today.

Anchorman

Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle

Mean Girls

Shaun of the Dead

Team America

At the same time, the humor has to be distinctive. Anchorman has jokes that could only happen in the world of that film. Assembly-line comedies do really well their year of release and then die off. Bad animation has the steepest drop:

Garfield the Movie

Meet the Fockers

Scooby Doo 2

Shrek 2

Shark Tale

4) We Don’t Want to Admit It, but Trilogies/Series Matter (even for art-house films)

If you can group films together, it plays well on a double or triple bill / in a box set. People might not leave the house for one film by their favorite director, but in 2024, those Cornetto Trilogy 6-hour marathons will be sold out, mark my words.

Also people like trilogies b/c they see links between the films and those details pay off in their minds.

2046 (Days of Being Wild / In the Mood for Love)

Before Sunset (Before Sunrise / Before Midnight)

Kill Bill Vol. 2 (technically one film split into two parts)

Shaun of the Dead (Hot Fuzz / The World’s End)

Spider-Man 2 (Raimi trilogy is apparently still getting some love)

5) Directors Matter Most

I heard from someone that Netflix has a specific bit of internal user data: the longer you use Netflix, the more likely you are to care about the director of a film, and you gravitate to watching the director’s other films. Loving a filmmaker is the same as loving a band. Once you love someone, it’s about seeing their entire body of work. Even if the individual songs/albums aren’t as amazing as you expected, you’re more willing to go back and revisit them.

These directors already had fan bases in 2004. Every single one has expanded that base over the last decade.

2046 (Wong Kar-Wai)

3-Iron (Kim Ki-Duk)

Before Sunset (Richard Linklater)

Collateral (Michael Mann)

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Michel Gondry)

Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban (Alfonso Cuaron)

Hellboy (Guillermo Del Toro)

Howl’s Moving Castle (Hayao Miyazaki)

The Incredibles (Brad Bird)

Kill Bill Vol. 2 (Quentin Tarantino)

The Life Aquatic (Wes Anderson)

Shaun of the Dead (Edgar Wright)

6) Stay true, keep the band together

It is better to make something true that appeals to a small group of people (who will keep it alive) than something a whole bunch of people like but not enough to rewatch it.

Having a distinctive tone, visual style, world, etc. pays off financially and critically in the long run b/c it attracts a following (see: Wes Anderson, a niche economy unto himself). Once the fanbase starts going, it just keeps snowballing. Not everybody’s going to be Wes Anderson, but even the Adam McKay/Will Ferrell partnership’s been doing well.

And if the director is a good leader, then actors, cinematographers, editors, production designers, producers, etc. all enjoy coming back over and over as recurring collaborators.

7) These Are the 2014 Directors

If I had to make a wild guess as to which 2014 films we’ll still be caring about in 2024, I wouldn’t guess the films, I’d guess which directors/studios this year had the most fervent fanbases: Wes Anderson, Richard Linklater, Bong Joon-ho, Christopher Nolan, Paul Thomas Anderson, David Fincher and Studio Ghibli

Less so but some fans care: James Gunn, Jean-Luc Godard, Lars von Trier, Jim Jarmusch, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Mike Leigh, Jonathan Glazer, Lukas Moodysson, Phil Lord & Chris Miller, James Gray, Sion Sono, Luc Besson.

May build a fan base but only one or two movies so far: Dan Gilroy, Damien Chazelle, Richard Ayoade, Jennifer Kent.

Obviously, I’m totally forgetting a ton of people. Throw out whatever names you want.

8) Conclusion: Pick Your Horses

So ultimately I think making a top 10 list is silly. As Steven Soderbergh said last year: “Hollywood thinks its about races, but it’s actually about horses.” In other words, pick the directors that are distinctive enough for people to care about their vision, regardless of material.

Oscar bait is entirely a perception created by marketing to get your ass in the theater between November and February, because the movie isn’t good enough to attract attention otherwise. So always ignore it. Do you really want to watch The Theory of Everything?

So if you like, pick your horses and bet on them for 10 years. Everything else is just noise.