If you have ever watched him play football, it is hard to deny Le'Veon Bell is one of the most electrifying players in the game. Bell is so good for many reasons, but mostly because his football IQ is off the charts; his patience is unrivaled and his knack for letting a play develop in front of him is in a league of its own. Unfortunately, Bell's contract has expired, forcing both his agent and the Steelers into contract negotiations. With time running out, the Steelers were forced to place the exclusive rights franchise tag onto Bell back in February which bought the two parties a little more time to negotiate. As the July 17th deadline rapidly approaches, no deal has been inked leaving Steeler Nation wondering what might happen.

Could Le'Veon Bell really refuse to sign his Franchise Tender and hold out?

Could the Steelers really not be willing to open up their checkbook to one of the most productive rushers in franchise history?

Before we address some of these questions, let's get the backstory straight.

We don't need to discuss this. Of course the Steelers are going to sign Le'Veon Bell. Isn't he the best Running Back in the League?

Anyone with a trace of football knowledge knows Le'Veon Bell is a very talented running back, but just how good is he when compared to some all-time greats? Bell, through his first 4 seasons, has put up an astounding 6,050 yards from scrimmage (rushing + receiving) in just 47 games. If that wasn't enough, he also has 31 combined rushing + receiving touchdowns to go with it. To help put this in perspective, if you look all the way back to the NFL Merger in 1970, you will only find 23 players who were able to collect over 6,000 yards from scrimmage and over 30 touchdowns through their first four seasons in the NFL:

All 23 happen to be Running Backs and 4 of them are still playing. Of these 23 players, 10 have been inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame (indicated by *) and a few more will probably get in eventually. Through his first four years, Bell has played in only 47 games. When compared to the average of 59 games through 4 seasons played by the other 22 players listed above, Bell's statistics look even more impressive. Bell actually leads the group with over 128 yards from scrimmage per game. If you combine the accolades of the 22 players listed above who are not Le'Veon Bell, you will find 46 first team All-Pro Honors, 100 Pro Bowl Selections, 9 NFL MVP Awards & 10 Lombardi trophies.

Okay I get it; he is pretty good. But just how long can a Running Back possibly sustain that level of production?

Well great question! Let's start with the players listed above. If you remove the 4 players (Bell, Foster, Peterson & Johnson) who are still active today you will find that the 19 retired players had an average of 10.7 seasons played in their careers. The shortest career of the bunch was Billy Sims with only 5 seasons, but the longest was Marcus Allen with 16. If you remove the first 4 seasons that we discussed above, you will find an average of 6.7 additional seasons per player. Once you remove those first 4 seasons, the list of accolades looks much less impressive. Only 16 of the 46 All-Pro Honors came after the first four years; only 40 of the 100 Pro Bowls, 2 of the 9 MVP's & 3 of the 10 Super Bowls. This is concerning, but awards aren't everything, right? Let's see how the statistics compare before and after the start of the fifth season for each player. In years 1 through 4, the 22 players above averaged 115 yards from scrimmage and 0.8 touchdowns per game played. In year 5 through their last, the average drops all the way down to 84 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Even if you remove the non-Hall of Famers, the average in year 5 through their last is only 100 yards from scrimmage & 0.6 touchdowns per game. No matter how you slice it, there appears to be a drastic regression in output after the conclusion of a running back's forth season in the league. This is true for both the Hall of Famers & the players who fizzled out. Let's say, hypothetically of course, that Le'Veon Bell signs a contract for 4 years and puts up the average of 84 yards & 0.5 touchdowns per game over that span. Over the four years Bell will accumulate approximately 5,375 yards from scrimmage & 33 touchdowns. While it is fairly safe to assume Bell will put up more yards than this, it is also probably wise to assume he will not play all 16 games each year so we will consider it a wash.

5,375 Yards? 33 more Touchdowns? Sign him! Sign him! Sign him!

Not so fast. Those numbers sound nice, but how nice are they really? If you take a look at the past 4 seasons (2013 through 2016) you will find a mere 6 players who put up over 5,000 yards & 30 touchdowns. These players were Antonio Brown, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy & Demaryius Thomas. If you remove AB & Thomas because they are wide receivers, you are left with only 4 running backs who recently accomplished such a feat. Since Bell is expected to put up numbers similar to these 4 players, it is only fair to scale his worth based on the proven cost of production. If you scale the cost of these players for each of the last seasons to account for the increase in salary cap, and remove all rookie deals, you will find this type of production is worth approximately $28M over 4 years, or about $7M per year. When looking around the league, $7M to $8M seems to be roughly what teams are paying for a reliable RB1 so it makes sense that the cost roughly equals the value. So we lock him up for 4 years at $7M per year? If only it were that easy. Spotrac.com values Le'Veon Bell at approximately $10.6 M per year over a 5-year span. Why the huge discrepancy? Well, Spotrac uses recent contracts signed by Lamar Miller, C.J. Anderson, Doug Martin & LeSean McCoy to extrapolate the value of Bell. Spotrac initially values these four players at $7M, probably using a similar algorithm to what I used above. The website admits that no player has put up the same level of production as Bell on a per game basis and thus scales the $7M to a whopping $10.6M. While Bell has put up much greater numbers than these four players per game, he has also played in significantly less total games thanks to multiple injuries and suspensions. Spotrac does not account for this, which I think is foolish. While $7M per year is all Bell's estimated production is really worth, the harsh reality of the matter is that Bell will be paid more than that. The next question, though, is by who?

Whaaaat? By the Steelers? Le'Veon is a Steeler for life. The Rooney's probably have an Armored Car en route to Bell as we speak!

The Steelers Front Office would have paid the man already if they truly thought he was irreplaceable. Truth is, Bell has been consistently out of the lineup for years and has missed a lot of critical games for the Steelers.

In 2013, The team started the year without Bell thanks to injury, losing all three games in his absence. The team went 8-8 and did not make the playoffs.

In 2014, Bell started all 16 games and the team Won the Division. Bell left the final game with an injury and missed the playoffs. The Steelers lost the Wild Card Game without him in the lineup.

In 2015, the team both started and finished the regular season without Bell in the lineup thanks to a suspension and an injury, respectively. The Steelers went 6-4 in his absence, but lost the Division Championship Game without his help.

In 2016, the team again started the regular season without Bell in the lineup and went 2-1 during his 3 game suspension. The team again made the playoffs and things were looking up. Bell was playing some of his best football through the first two weeks of the playoffs before an injury again derailed his season causing him to miss the Steelers Conference Championship game against New England where the Steelers season came to an end.

Over 4 short years, Bell has missed 16 games to suspension and injury. The Steelers have been eliminated from playoff contention in each last 3 seasons without the help of Bell. The Steelers had to begin 3 of the last 4 seasons without their star running back. If Bell gets caught using Marijuana again, it won't be pretty. It also seems likely that Bell will be injury prone for his entire career. Obviously Bell is a force when he is available, but what about when he is not? These are all reasons the Steelers have not signed Le'Veon Bell to a record breaking deal. He is quite simply too much of a risk to pay $10M+ per year. While it might seem like Bell has all the leverage, I think the Steelers actually have much more leverage than it might appear. Let's say Bell refuses to sign his $12.1M franchise tag. He then proceeds to hold out the entire 2017 season. Come March 2018, Bell will have played in only 47 out of a possible 80 games. This will be noticed by other GM's and his market value will almost certainly come down. The only thing worse than a pot smoking, injury prone star player, is a pot smoking, injury prone, egotistical star player. While no one will replace Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers will be just fine with a combination of Knile Davis & James Conner in the backfield. As long as Ben is throwing the ball to AB, the offense will be top 10 in the game. Bell missing 2017 will hurt his value more than it will hurt the Steeler's season.

So what should the Steelers do? Can't we reach a middle ground? I'm not ready to lose Bell. We just lost Marc-André Fleury for Christ's Sake. STOP THE PAIN!!

I recommend the Steelers offer Bell a 4-year deal worth $30M with incentives that could bring the deal to $44M. These incentives would basically be saying that if Bell stays relatively healthy (plays in at least 54 out of 64 possible games) and suspension free he will get the full pay day. I would also put a clause that if Bell gets caught with pot again, all guaranteed money goes away. If Bell continues to play at the pace he has, basically dressing for 3 out of 4 games, he will get paid as such. If Bell refuses this deal, I would keep the Franchise Tag on the table for 2017 and plan to draft one of many good RB prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft. If this happens, it will be sad to lose such a great player, but business decisions should never be made out of emotion.

Thank you for reading and please remember that these articles can take a good bit of time and effort to write and, most importantly, I do it for you, so if you enjoyed what you just read please "Rec" this post below to help others find it. Also, please let me know what you think about Le'Veon's contract situation in the comments below and feel free to recommend any ideas you might have for future articles. Also, I might as well admit it before it is brought up, I am an Eagles fan, but I do live in Pittsburgh and have for almost 20 years.. I watch every Steelers game and I listen to 93.7 the Fan just like you do. I may have never posted on BTSC before, but I am a regular on SB Nation and I hope my post(s) will be a welcomed addition to your community. Thanks yinz and go Stillers!