It used to appear that incumbent governments in Canada were pretty safe. Two years ago, there were five provincial elections and one federal, with the all incumbent governments returned.

Canadians seemed to be wary of shuffling governments in times of uncertainty.

But there are signs that's changing. According to the website threehundredeight.com,which publishes an aggregate of polls, seven of the 10 provincial governments would face possible defeat if elections were held at the end of July, the last month for which polls were gathered for every province.

Polls can change quite a bit on voting day, but a trend favouring change is starting to develop, with some notable exceptions. In Saskatchewan, Premier Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party is drawing more than 60% in surveys and in P.E.I., Premier Robert Ghiz's Liberals remain at 50% support.

Leading in less spectacular fashion is British Columbia Premier Christy Clark's Liberal government, which remains popular with more than 40% support. She is the second-most popular premier in the country behind Wall at 68% in a recent Angus Reid poll.

But that's where the clarity ends.

In 2012, Albertans backed away from going hard right with the Wildrose Party, re-electing the Progressive Conservatives under their new leader Alison Redford. The two parties are virtually tied in polling now, but the PCs went through a significant period where they trailed badly. Redford's popularity is well behind that of her own party and there are musings of a movement to dump her.

In Manitoba, Premier Greg Selinger's NDP government was re-elected in October 2011, but it appears to be dead in the water now. The Tories are well ahead at 46% and Selinger's personal popularity sits at 26%, the second-lowest among Canadian premiers.

In Ontario, acceptance of Premier Kathleen Wynne's Liberals continues to bounce. The Liberals remain ahead of the Tories, whose spectacular mediocrity continues to confound. Wynne's popularity sits at 39%, ahead of her party's support. The Tories do charge forward in polls now and then. You get the sense if Ontarians saw a legitimate alternative, they would go for it.

In Quebec, support for Pauline Marois' Parti Quebecois government remains well behind the Liberals, though her personal popularity has jumped in the wake of the Lac-Megantic rail disaster and the introduction of the Charter of Quebec Values.

New Brunswick Premier David Alward's PC government, which was elected in October 2010, is well behind the Liberals, who have 47% support. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the Tory government of Kathy Dunderdale trails the Liberals badly. She is the least-popular premier in Canada at the moment.

In Nova Scotia, Darrell Dexter's NDP government is likely to be turfed next week in favour of the Liberals. Halifax polling firm Corporate Research Associates says Liberal Leader Stephen McNeil got a boost when federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau campaigned with him. How much of the resurgence of the Liberal brand in some provinces is affected by Trudeau's popularity, and can it be sustained through provincial elections? If Nova Scotia is an indication, it's possible. The Liberals are now ahead in popularity in six provinces.

Ontarians may get a sense of that if, as many believe, the opposition triggers an election after the spring budget. Trudeau's values are similar to Wynne's, so he could campaign with her.

You can bet Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be watching.

brian.macleod@sunmedia.ca