The political pact binding Canadian conservatives together has come under renewed strain after yet another senior cabinet minister announced that he was bailing out of the increasingly unpopular government of Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper.

Justice minister Peter MacKay declaration on Friday that he would not to seek re-election in this fall’s upcoming federal election came after former foreign minister John Baird unexpectedly announced he was leaving politics earlier this year, increasing speculation that even the ruling Conservatives are seeing the end of days for their majority government in October.

MacKay’s resignation came on the heels of news that Canada’s economy shrank by 0.1% in the first three months of 2015, the first quarterly contraction since 2011, representing a significant setback for the Harper government’s oil-based economic policy. “With economic numbers like these heading into the election, Mr Mackay won’t be the last cabinet minister to jump off this ship,” tweeted economist Jim Stanford of the trade union Unifor.

A former defence minister, foreign minister and attorney general in successive Harper governments, MacKay played a key role in uniting right-wing factions to form the modern Conservative Party. He is considered a moderate in Ottawa and is often mentioned as a future party leader.

MacKay is also one of the few personally popular members of the Harper government, having entertained Canadians during his bachelorhood with a love life that included a public jilting by a billionaire heiress and rumours of dates in rural Nova Scotia with Condoleeza Rice, which the former US secretary of state has denied.

Currently married to Iranian-born singer and activist Nazanin Afshin-Jam, MacKay cited “entirely personal reasons” for his retirement during a press conference attended by the prime minister in Stellarton, Nova Scotia. Harper contributed a eulogy emphasizing MacKay’s commitment to the common cause.

“I love what I do” MacKay said. “But simply put, I love my family more.”

But he hinted strongly he would one day return to politics, citing his father’s advice: “Never lock a door when you leave, unless you have to.”

Sympathetic observers see MacKay’s resignation as an obvious step for a potential future leader. “I think he’s probably decided the odds of Harper going anywhere soon aren’t very great and he wants to make some money,” said Brian Lee Crowley, director of the rightwing Maconald-Laurier Institute. “He could spend a few years making good money and when it’s time for Harper to go he would be well placed to return.”

Others see it differently. “I think MacKay sees the writing on the wall and is getting out before he is booted out,” said Maude Barlow, head of the leftwing Council of Canadians. “Canadians have had it with this government.”

Most polls agree, showing Harper winning a weak minority if the election were held today. If the same result occurs in October, according to University of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman, there will be “massive pressure” on opposition leaders to overthrow the government.

“Both McKay and Baird realize that in a minority situation, unless it’s very close to a majority, they’re toast,” Wiseman said, predicting that the opposition New Democrats and Liberals will combine to defeat any Conservative minority government at the earliest opportunity.