A new YouGov poll for the Evening Standard has underlined that Labour has a big lead in the capital. But the party could end up in a fiercer fight than it would like in what should be two of its safer London seats.

For some time it has been thought likely that candidates from the local party led by Tower Hamlets mayor Lutfur Rahman might stand in the borough’s two parliamentary constituencies, challenging Labour incumbents Rushanara Ali and Jim Fitzpatrick. It’s been confirmed to me by a reliable source that this is indeed a definite possibility. There is no love lost between Rahman and Labour, on whom he and his allies have inflicted several defeats. Could Labour come unstuck in the East End?

Results from 2010 indicate that all opponents of Labour there have big mountains to climb: Ali triumphed in Bethnal Green and Bow with 43% of the vote while Fitzpatrick took 40% in neighbouring Poplar and Limehouse. In both cases, the runners up were a long way back. But in Bethnal Green and Bow in particular a strong campaign by someone from Tower Hamlets First (THF), as the Rahman-led party is called, would stand a chance of at least making an impact.

This was the seat where Respect’s George Galloway sensationally defeated Labour’s Oona King in 2005 after a bitter and ugly campaign. Galloway tapped in to anger with Labour among the constituency’s substantial, politically active and predominantly Bengali Muslim population, and with other Tower Hamlets voters, over Tony Blair’s government’s taking Britain to war in Iraq.

That disaffection with Labour among a key group of voters who, under normal circumstances, would be its natural and loyal voters, had clearly ebbed by the time Ali secured the seat five years later: Respect’s candidate finished third behind a Lib Dem, while Galloway, who tried his luck next door in Poplar and Limehouse, finished in the same place behind a Conservative.



But the legacy of the Iraq conflict lingers on and Tower Hamlets Labour knows it. Last autumn, Ali declined to support her party in the Commons over air strikes against Islamic State forces operating in Iraq and resigned as a shadow education minister. The previous August, Fitzpatrick had resigned as shadow transport minister after saying he would vote against Ed Miliband’s support for military intervention in Syria. Draw your own conclusions. Everyone else already has.

Galloway said last November at a rally in support of Rahman, that if THF doesn’t run candidates in Tower Hamlets, Respect will. And many of the factors that helped Respect establish a presence in Tower Hamlets have helped Rahman to confound Labour there too.



He briefly led Tower Hamlets council for the party, but its national executive committee dumped him as its candidate to become the borough’s first executive mayor – a sort of local authority Boris Johnson - over claims that he was too close to local Muslim activists alleged by some to hold extreme views. Rahman ran as an independent instead, winning the borough’s inaugural mayoral poll with ease. He retained the mayoralty by a small margin last year following a fraught contest against Labour London Assembly member John Biggs and a very long and controversial count.

Hostilities took place against the backdrop of allegations made against Rahman, all of them denied, in a BBC Panorama programme. These were followed by communities secretary Eric Pickles ordering an inspection of the council’s books. A critical report ensued and the government has sent in commissioners to run some of the council’s affairs.



On top of that, a quartet of Tower Hamlets residents – an anti-corruption campaigner, a UKIP member, an unsuccessful Labour council candidate and a local restauranteur who’s previously supported Respect – have challenged the mayoral result in court by way of an election petition claiming numerous improprieties. Proceedings began in February and have just ended. The presiding judge will announce the outcome after the Easter break. It could mean Rahman, who has denied all the claims against him, being disqualified from holding office for five years.

For all this, though, Rahman undoubtedly enjoys much local support. Labour certainly believes the council could be better run but, notwithstanding the Pickles interventions, it is not falling apart like Hackney’s was 15 years ago. And Rahman’s portrayal of himself as a picked-on, ethnic minority underdog standing up to a biased media and political establishment seems to ring true with many.



You’re right: East End politics can be a baffling, perturbing and unlovely sight (sadly, this has been so for decades). So what next? Word from THF is that they’re waiting for the election petition verdict before deciding what to do, although they might not have that luxury, as candidate nomination papers have to be submitted no later than 4:00 pm on April 9.

Names previously chattered about as THF runners are councillors Oliur Rahman (no relation), who is Rahman’s cabinet member for economic development, and Rabina Khan, who is his cabinet member for housing. They are generally regarded as two of the mayor’s most able lieutenants. They might not run at all and, if they do, it will be a big upset if they win. But Labour is well aware that they could not be easily dismissed. Asked to respond to the possibility of having such rivals, Rushanara Ali provided a statement that began with a very uncomplicated message:

There’s a clear choice for people in Tower Hamlets this May between five more years of Tory government or Labour - Labour Government committed to tackling the big issues faced by local people.

The national polls tell their own story: it’s neck-and-neck out there, and one Labour seat lost that should have been won could make a very big difference to the country. Complacency is not an option for Miliband’s party in the East End.