I HOPE NO ONE AT THE NCAA READS THIS, but like most of America, I've bet on college basketball. But only once did that happen outside of a bracket challenge. I'd seen Memphis go to the Elite Eight in 2007 and watched Derrick Rose dominate the high school scene that same year. So just before Thanksgiving 2008, I walked into the Bellagio hotel's sports book and plunked down a scrawny $10 on Memphis, at plus-450, to win it all, figuring that as bookmakers followed the team's successes throughout the season, the odds would only get closer.

To be honest, I don't know a thing about betting, but the wizardry of the freshman from Chicago made it seem like I'd have $45 of found money by spring. It felt inevitable. Fast-forward four months, and with the title on the line and Memphis leading Kansas by nine with 2 minutes, 11 seconds left in the game, my resolute assurances started a slow fray.



Memphis swingman Antonio Anderson turned the ball over with a sloppy inbounds pass. Forward Joey Dorsey fouled out. Guard Chris Douglas-Roberts missed his three free throws and then, with 10.8 seconds left, Rose -- who had made 13 free throws in a row at the Final Four -- missed one that would have put Memphis up by four. The Tigers then watched KU run the floor before Mario Chalmers hit a game-tying three-pointer near the end of regulation. Memphis would lose in OT 75-68.

To be sure, it was an epic debacle. Yet no matter who deserves the blame, the sequence proved an age-old (bet-busting) tenet: Even a can't-miss contender can choke. Even several times. And no one knows that better than John Calipari. He's taken three different teams to Final Fours* (NCAA, there's your asterisk). Two of them, UMass and Memphis, were non-BCS programs. Four times (in 1996, 2006, '08 and '10) his teams entered the tournament as a No. 1 seed. He's also never won a national championship.

Sure, some of his tourney entrants were underdogs, lacking the mix of surefire talent and convincing record that mark the oddsmakers' (and selection committee's) favorites. Those teams went further than anyone expected. But among those that were favorites, it's tough to lay blame anyplace else but with Calipari for their lack of hardware. And, on the verge of coaching his fifth chalk favorite, he is fine with that. "This team has already been told: If you win, it's going to be about you, and if you lose, it'll be about me," he says. "So go play."

This year's Kentucky team has legit, anyone-can-see-how-good-they-are talent headlined by freshman Anthony Davis, the POY front-runner. Through February, the Wildcats defended better (58.2 points allowed, 36.3 percent opponents' FG), shot better (48.5 FG percent) and won by more (plus-19.4 ppg) than any other Calipari squad. This team also has his best effective shooting percentage (53.6 percent) and effective field goal defense (41.1 percent) since KenPom.com started tracking the stat in 2003. Statistically, they represent Calipari's best-ever shot at a title. And for any other program, that would be its biggest problem. Being that recognizably good for the course of a season draws attention and expectations, which is usually the surest way to unhinge a crew full of potential stars. But ego has never been why Calipari's teams fall short of a championship.

Almost everyone in Kentucky's current starting five has been told they were individually amazing for years, and none was ranked lower than 21st as a recruit coming out of high school. It was also that way at UMass and Memphis, where Calipari successfully lured players who ended up lottery picks sooner than later. On his four top-seeded teams, the players coalesced quickly and sped their way through seasons where they lost, at most, four times all year. Their records are all the more incredible considering that teams full of stars usually need a wake-up string of losses before they buy into the idea that they can't win games on individual talent alone.