Ronald J. Hansen

The Republic | azcentral.com

Democrat Tom O'Halleran leads Republican Paul Babeu by 10 percentage points in a Dem-sponsored poll

Babeu's own polling has shown him trailing within the margin of error

Babeu trails as his campaign runs low on cash to counter an onslaught of Democratic attack ads

Tom O’Halleran has opened a 10 percentage point lead over Republican Paul Babeu in their congressional race, according to a new poll conducted for Democrats.

The poll, commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, indicated O’Halleran was leading the Pinal County sheriff 46 percent to 36 percent.

A similar Democratic poll indicated O’Halleran was leading by 7 percentage points in September. An Oct. 6 poll for Babeu’s campaign indicated O’Halleran was leading by 3 percentage points, which was within that poll’s margin of error.

Both men are running in the state’s 1st Congressional District, which spans most of eastern Arizona. The district is currently represented by Ann Kirkpatrick, a Democrat who is trying to unseat Republican John McCain in the Senate.

Mike Noble, a spokesman for the Babeu campaign, dismissed the poll as a partisan distraction.

“Our own recent survey has this race remaining a dead heat. This is clearly a bogus internal poll Democrats are shopping to distract from the clear lack of enthusiasm for Tom O’Halleran," he said. "The fact is they’ve spent nearly $2 million and haven’t moved the needle. Our own internal targeting and (get-out-the-vote) metrics show we are in a good position and we feel confident heading into the final stretch.”

The road ahead

If the latest poll is correct, it would suggest that Babeu faces an uphill battle in the race made worse by limited finances.

His campaign entered the final stage of the election season as among the most cash-poor in competitive House races this year, records show.

Babeu had less than $90,000 in cash on hand at the end of September, days before voters began casting their ballots.

By contrast, O’Halleran, had nearly $300,000 in cash at the same point.

Only four other major-party nominees in 39 House races across the country that are viewed as competitive had less money than Babeu, Federal Election Commission records show.

For Babeu, that financial disadvantage is magnified by at least $2 million so far in outside spending by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to defeat him.

Dems, GOP on sideline in formerly close House races

The National Republican Congressional Committee, which is trying to protect seats all over the map, has not invested anything in Babeu’s race, unlike their efforts in 2014. An organization controlled by the National Rifle Association has spent $13,000 supporting Babeu and Conserv America Building a Brighter Future Together, a group headed by Phoenix lobbyist Gibson McKay, has chipped in $18,000.

That has left Babeu nearly alone to counter the heavy spending by Democrats, who have painted him as an ineffective leader who allowed or missed widespread child abuse as headmaster at a private Massachusetts school years ago.

“As it turns out, overseeing the inhumane abuse of special needs students at a school rife with sexual abuse, recklessly wasting taxpayer dollars, and being embroiled in a corruption scandal involving the FBI is not what Arizonans want in their representative,” said Tyler Law, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It’s no mystery why Paul Babeu is going to lose this race."

Paul Babeu, Tom O'Halleran clash on taxes, character in debate for Arizona congressional seat

"It should come as no surprise that Paul Babeu's poll numbers continue to fall as voters learn more about his role in sanctioning, bragging about, and laughing about the abusive DeSisto School," said Jacob Becklund, O'Halleran's campaign manager. "Babeu's lies have been repeatedly exposed, but none more clearly than in the 27-minute homemade video where he personally described the details of the abusive practices he sanctioned at a school for emotionally vulnerable students. Paul Babeu's record and lies have flatly disqualified him from representing Arizona's families in Congress."

Babeu defeated five other Republicans to win his party’s nomination in August, but none of those former rivals has embraced his efforts to reclaim the seat for the GOP.

Babeu raised slightly more than O'Halleran between Aug. 11 and Sept. 30, records show. Babeu took in $358,000 from all sources compared with $326,000 for O'Halleran. Both men have raised about $1.1 million overall. But Babeu's more-difficult primary battle also left him with less cash.

Paul Babeu, Tom O'Halleran battle for coal vote in Arizona congressional race