Good morning, this is Helen Sullivan bringing you the main stories and must-reads on Tuesday 7 May.

Top stories

Human society is under urgent threat from the accelerating decline of the Earth’s natural life-support systems, the world’s leading scientists have warned, as they announced the results of the most thorough planetary health check undertaken to date. The biomass of wild mammals has fallen by 82%, natural ecosystems have lost about half their area and a million species are at risk of extinction – all largely as a result of human actions. Two in five amphibian species are at risk of extinction, as are one-third of reef-forming corals, and close to one-third of other marine species. At least one in 10 insects – which are crucial to plant pollination – are threatened with extinction and in some regions populations have crashed. Australian environment groups have used the findings to demand what political parties would do to protect species and landscapes.

Labor has maintained its election-winning lead over the Coalition as the campaign enters its final fortnight, according to a new Guardian Essential poll. The survey put Labor in front 52% to 48% two-party-preferred, a slight rise compared with last week, but within the poll’s margin of error. In a solo appearance on last night’s Q&A last night, Bill Shorten was grilled for more than an hour on Labor’s revenue measures, environmental policy and plans to increase wages for childcare workers, saying the party was “not retreating” on its bold policy platform. “But while Labor is in front, and remains the clear favourite,” writes Katharine Murphy, “the contest has not turned decisively Shorten’s way. The question all along … has been whether this federal contest will be like the Victorian state result, where there was a decisive swing to Labor in the final week, or more like New South Wales, where different things happened in different parts, and the outcome was the incumbent Liberals held government.”

Sydney, Darwin, Brisbane and Melbourne all face the prospect of dam levels falling below 50% capacity after low rainfall and high temperatures. In Sydney, inflows are at their lowest since 1940. In the Northern Territory, the Darwin river dam received its lowest recorded rainfall in March, as the territory recorded its driest wet season in 27 years. In Melbourne, dam levels were at 51% on Monday, compared with 59% last year and 61% the year before. In Queensland, the south-east was also reaching a 10-year low. Dry conditions and lower-than-average rainfall are expected to persist into winter, after the hottest March on record.

World

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Donald Trump’s bitter confrontation with his political opponents continues to intensify. Photograph: Alex Wong/Getty Images

More than 370 former federal prosecutors have signed a statement saying Donald Trump would have been charged with obstruction of justice if he were not president. The statement contradicts the conclusion of the attorney general, William Barr, that there was no criminal case for obstruction.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex are the parents of a baby boy. Prince Harry said his new son was “absolutely to die for”. Meghan Markle gave birth to the seventh in line to the throne at 5.26am local time on Monday, Buckingham Palace announced.

Turkey’s election body has ordered a rerun of Istanbul’s mayoral poll, after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party complained about its surprise defeat in the vote.

Nigel Farage is facing strong criticism from Jewish organisations and other groups after it emerged he repeatedly took part in interviews with the Infowars conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, during which the Brexit party leader openly canvassed antisemitic tropes.

Sunday’s deadly fire on an Aeroflot jet was probably caused by pilot error, a technical malfunction or “adverse weather conditions”, apparently referring to reports that lightning struck the plane after takeoff, Russian authorities have said.

Opinion and analysis

Facebook Twitter Pinterest ‘There is really only one reason the Reserve Bank cuts rates and that is to stimulate economic growth,’ writes Greg Jericho. Photograph: Jason Reed/Reuters

The Reserve Bank may decide to cut interest rates today, in what would be seen as a politically charged move. But if it does not, it is only a matter of time before it happens – probably next month, writes Greg Jericho. “An interest rate cut when the rate is already so low would be a clear sign of what we have known for a while: the economy is in trouble.”

The poorest people in the world are women and Australia is no exception, writes Emma Dawson of the progressive thinktank Per Capita. As part of Guardian Australia’s Fair Go? series, Dawson looks at how women face structural discrimination, resulting in so many of them retiring into poverty.

Sport

Manchester City remain on course for the Premier League title after a sensational goal from Vincent Kompany secured a 1-0 win over Leicester. A win in their final game of the season, against Brighton on Sunday, will make City champions.

Titus O’Reily, the sports satirist and long-suffering Melbourne supporter, talks to Kasey Symons about his political humour and how he doesn’t mind ruffling feathers by extending his nuanced comedy to women’s sport.

Thinking time: ‘A nasty place at the moment’

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The plan to rid Lord Howe Island or rats has divided residents. Photograph: Patrick Keneally/The Guardian

For the past few weeks little plastic boxes have been popping up on Lord Howe Island. By mid-May these boxes will be filled with poison as part of an attempt to eradicate rats and mice from the world heritage-listed island. They cover the island like a net, with 2,400 points laid out at 10-metre intervals throughout the accessible, human-occupied areas and running along waterways. The rest of the 1,400-hectare subtropical island and its surrounding islets will be covered by baits scattered via helicopter. A few weeks, it is hoped, will be enough time for the rodents to accept the bait stations so they are not suspicious when they suddenly fill with food.

Gaining acceptance from the island’s 350 human residents will be harder. They were first told about the plan 20 years ago. A plebiscite, testing the views of everyone in residence on polling night in 2015, was 52% in favour of rodent eradication. Tensions over the project, at a low hum since the first bungled meetings by scientists in the early 2000s, have split families and divided neighbours. Many residents would only speak to Guardian Australia on the condition of anonymity. “It’s a nasty place at the moment,” a hotel owner said. “We are a small community. It’s very distressing to see the level of anger and distrust over this issue.”

Media roundup

“A hostile Senate would threaten Bill Shorten’s big-­spending agenda by blocking a raft of Labor tax increases, raising the prospect of a $90 billion budget hole if the ALP was elected,” the Australian reports. The Sydney Morning Herald says foreign deals are in Labor’s sights after Chris Bowen questioned the takeover of Australia’s largest private hospital operator, Healthscope, by the Canadian investment giant Brookfield, over its use of the Cayman Islands tax haven. The Advertiser has a YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie is the “clear frontrunner” in the seat of Mayo, with 57% to Liberal candidate Georgina Downer’s 43% in the two-party preferred result.

Coming up

The RBA will announce its decision on whether to cut interest rates at 2.30 today – you can follow the Guardian’s live coverage from 1pm.

The NSW parliament sits for the first time since the 23 March state election returned Gladys Berejiklian’s Coalition government. Protests are expected against Mark Latham and One Nation taking their upper house seats.

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