Donald J. Trump has won the presidency. Below, our estimates of three key indicators:

The projections for each state are based on the votes reported so far and how those places have voted in previous elections.

We’re showing the closest states by default. Show all states

Estimated vote margin Best guess 5% 50% of outcomes 95%

Here’s how our forecasts have changed:

Chance of Winning Presidency

Total Electoral Votes

Estimated electoral votes Best guess 5% 50% of outcomes 95%

The estimates below include an estimate of uncertainty. We expect the uncertainty around these estimates to narrow, especially after races are called.

Projected Popular Vote Margin

Estimated vote margin Best guess 5% 50% of outcomes 95%

Once a state has counted all its results, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady, our forecast is more trustworthy.

Likely Electoral Outcomes

The chart below shows the most likely electoral vote outcomes. When every state has been called, this chart will show just one: the total electoral votes of the winner.