Key PPR findings this week:

Changes for this week: For some of the analysis, I’ll be adding my thoughts to make the conclusion (or lack thereof) from the data more clear.

QB:

Josh Allen — MVP candidate (I kid). The AI thinks he’s an RB that throws the ball a ton (See Lamar Jackson), which wasn’t untrue last week (first graph below). His matchup is great (second graph below), and the AI thinks he’s going to have the rushing attempts this week. That is all he has going for him this week.

Cam Newton- Is almost a lock for two passing TDs a game (first graph below). All the primary passing stats are trending up, the only item sticking out to me is the lack of rushing TDs, which are likely being cannibalized by Christian Mccaffrey. That could also be why his passing numbers are up. There is not a lot to hate about Newton this week. With our updated rankings, he is no longer an outlier (I wrote this section while he still was).

RB:

James Conner — If you own him, you’re starting him. Over the past few games, he hasn’t had the opportunity to do damage. The opportunity is likely a function of the Steelers being in close games (first graph below). The Chargers are a decent team against the run (second graph).

Kenyan Drake is good. I couldn’t find a gif, but this video shows his TD from last week. He reminds me of Chris Thompson from last year, limited touches with colossal potential (first graph below). I still don’t fully understand Frank Gore’s role in the offense when you have Drake who has explosive talent. I am not discounting how consistent Gore has been over his career; I am also not an NFL coach….

That brings me to Frank Gore. If you like 50–100 yards rushing, he’s your guy. Our AI isn’t buying the TD drought which has been borderline criminal. He has 3 TDs (rushing + receiving) in the past 24 games. We’re too high on him; unless he gets a TD, in which case, we’ll be right.

David Johnson — Has enormous potential every week Arizona doesn’t get blown-out. Against the Chiefs, he was used heavily in the passing game and it paid dividends, after which, they reverted to limited use in passing situations (first graph below). I don’t like the probability of Arizona keeping the score close against the Packers on the road which puts a limit on the upside potential of David Johnson.

Spencer Ware — Dude was good in 2016. Below is a chart of his stats from 2015 and 2016, when he was taking a ton of snaps. That as also on a KC team with Alex Smith at QB so it will be interesting to see how he performs this week with Mahomes.

WR:

Jarvis Landry — This is going to be a heavy graph analysis. I’ll give you a summary. His overall targets are down (first graph), which appears to be a function of his snap count decline(second graph). He still gets the most (or share of the most) targets on the team a game (third graph), but I don’t like the downward trend. If we see a similar pattern this game, I’ll caution against using him. Until then, Houston got torched last week for over 350 yards, and I am a Baker Mayfield fanboy.

My Thoughts: In all seriousness, I tend to be risk-averse so Landry seems risky this week, if his price is right in DFS, take a filer on him because he is talented but the recent performances, coupled with, a decline in usage, is concerning.

Not good

Not good

Not good

TE

I always neglect TE and this week is no different, this article gets super long with QB, WR, and RB. I do want to talk about Njoku. He looks to have a cap on his total yardage; he’s never had a 100-yard game, so his value is tied to TDs, which he has been getting recently (first graph). Houston also got torched in the air last week (second graph). I’d start him in DFS if the price is right.

PPR