It's true that Iranian authorities had pledged to do so this if the U.S. government's "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions and efforts to isolate the country diplomatically brought their oil exports to a halt entirely. However, this is a long-standing threat that the Iranians haven't followed through on. The regime in Tehran can only know that this would draw the ire of the entire international community given the global interest in unimpeded maritime trade in the region, as well as block them from using the Strait themselves. The prospect of a bloody war with the U.S. and its Arab allies is also a strong deterrent.

Still, the U.S. is pairing hard rhetoric with a softer 'wait and see' attitude and even an olive branch of sorts:

"We will defend our interests, but a war with Iran is not in our strategic interest, nor in the best interest of the international community," CENTCOM said in its press release, underscoring this point.

"They’ve been told in strong terms," President Trump said on June 14, 2019. "We want to get them back to the table if they want to go back. I’m ready when they are. I’m in no rush."

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was meeting with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe the day of the attacks in the Gulf of Oman, had categorically rejected any overtures from Trump. "We do not believe at all that the U.S. is seeking genuine negotiations with Iran; because genuine negotiations would never come from a person like Trump," a series of Tweets from Khamenei's official Twitter account read after his meeting with Abe.

When it comes to the Kokuka Courageous and the Front Altair, both sides as well as third parties, such as Kokuka Sangyo, may well produce more evidence in the coming days that either supports their respective conclusions or muddies the waters even more. Yet the idea that Iran did not at least have knowledge of the attacks seems to be getting more and more remote by the hour.

Regardless, the incident is clearly a worrying escalation of the situation in the region overall.

Editor's Note/Tyler's Take:

Both are probably true. Iranian small boats could have, and likely did, lob projectiles towards the ship and planted mines on it. Even the firing of projectiles could be used as a distraction to mine the hull without being noticed. Iranian small boat swarming tactics including using various weapons on larger vessels simultaneously.

See our latest update to this rapidly evolving story by clicking here.

Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com