Manchester Housing Market

Population Growth

International immigration remains an important driver behind the city’s growing population, with EU Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Spain and Portugal making up an increasing proportion of new arrivals to the city (Manchester City Council)

From 2002 to 2015, Manchester experienced population growth of 149% in the city centre (Centre for Cities)

However, Manchester Place, the partnership between Manchester City Council and the Homes and Communities Agency, forecasts the city centre population to rise above 80,000 by 2024

Predicted to rise to 79,019 in 2027 by Manchester City Council with a large increase in 19-49 age group

The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model predicts that the population will grow to above 570,000 by 2024.

Mid-Year Estimate of Manchester population was 545,501 in 2017, an increase of 8.4% from the 2011 number of 503,127 (Manchester City Council)

Graph showing population increase with future projection in Manchester City Centre (Source: Manchester Place)

Student Population

Many of these students remain in the city after graduation. Manchester has the highest graduate retention of any UK cities rate outside of London. The large student and young graduate population means that there is a strong demand for rental properties, especially in the city centre. JLL reported in 2017 that two thirds of the city centre population are private renters.

Several new student housing developments have prompted a shift towards the city centre and surrounding wards over the last decade for students

Manchester City Council reported that the University of Manchester and Manchester Metropolitan University attracted approximately 73,100 students in 2015/16. This was the largest student population since 2012 when tuition fees increased. Out of these students, around 47,500 lived in the city. There were also a further 4,400 students at other universities residing in the city

Housing Supply

Total Number of City Centre Properties – 10,202

Properties in Miles Platting & Newton Heath, Moston and City Centre – 23,952

The proportion of home owners dropped from 72% in April 2003 to 58% this year in Greater Manchester, according to a Resolution Foundation report . (Zoopla) This suggests that the rental market is growing stronger as more young people choose to rent.

GMCA reported that since 2008, only around 3,000 new homes are built every year in Greater Manchester. The Greater Manchester Spatial Framework, produced by GMCA in 2016, stated that Greater Manchester requires 227,200 new homes from 2015 to 2035 at an average of 11,360 per year

In March 2016 the Executive endorsed the Manchester Residential Growth Strategy which set a minimum target of 25,000 new homes to be delivered within the city by 2025 (gov.co.uk). There is a currently a development pipeline in excess of 20,000 units

However, the vast majority of those units are at the pre-planning stage and only around 10% are currently under construction. Meanwhile the city centre has seen, and continues to see, significant population growth creating a shortfall in delivery currently of more than 2,000 homes pa according to Manchester Place.

Despite there being a large number of homes in the planning process there is likely to be an undersupply in the next 3-5 years due to the strong economic performance of the city centre continuing to create significant population growth. There is not likely to be any large-scale completions until 2019, which will continue to fuel strong price growth.