Supplying 35 percent of the world’s demand, oil is still the most vital source of energy. At heart is the gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel that dominate some 98 percent of the transport sector. For a variety of reasons, oil’s indispensable role in moving people around will remain secure for decades to come. The very high energy density that petroleum brings is especially critical for trucks and airplanes that require fuels that really back a punch. So being practical, the present analysis focuses on the chances of electric cars to displace oil in the passenger vehicle sector, which accounts for 40-50 percent of all usage.

Oil-based cars are not going away anytime soon. Their numbers are simply overwhelming. There are now well over 1 billion oil passenger vehicles in the world, with only about 5-6 million electric ones. In 2018, for instance, there were nearly 95 million cars sold in the world, and just over 1 million of them run on electricity. As the largest market, the U.S. illustrates the enormity involved: the U.S. devours a whopping 410 million gallons of gasoline every day.

Released in July, J.D. Power’s Mobility Confidence Index showed that Americans are still not in love with the cars that are just assumed primed to end oil's century of dominance. J.D. Power finds that just 39 percent of Americans would buy an electric car and 51 percent do not see them as reliable as oil-based ones. Among other concerns, electric cars are too expensive, rely on a precarious supply chain, and lack a significant used car market. But, it was the length of time to charge an electric car and the miles range that charge brings that were cited as the biggest problems.

The transport needs of the still developing countries – which account for 85 percent of the world’s population – are just now coming to light. The higher costs for electric cars are a huge problem because citizens have less capacity to absorb them. As a “slowdown,” Chinese last year bought 28 million cars, with only 750,000 of them running on electricity. In addition, environmental groups should think twice about pushing electric cars in China and India: coal accounts for 60-70 percent of their power. An electric car can increase home electricity use by 50 percent or more.

Indeed, much of the push for electric cars expensively relies on unsustainable subsidies to encourage purchase. These incentives though typically just benefit the wealthy because they are the only ones in the market. For example, experts at the University of California, Berkeley have concluded that the top income quintile in the U.S. have received over 90 percent of the tax credits for electric cars. Tesla exemplifies the problem, the electric car leader that has been unable to make a profit in 15 years of existence. Tesla faces even more uncertainty now that the company has hit its 200,000 units sold threshold, thereby phasing-out the $7,500 federal tax credit. Other sellers confront the same issues as they grow.

In addition, it often goes unreported that oil’s internal combustion engine continues to improve, often just as fast as electric cars. New oil cars are becoming more efficient, using less fuel to go farther distances. Always improving quality will continue to keep them on the road longer. And as for emissions and the environment, EPA reports that today's new cars, trucks, heavy-duty trucks, buses, and SUVs operate about 99 percent cleaner than models produced in the 1960s.

Oil and gasoline have proven themselves inelastic, meaning that a lack of a significant substitutes ensures that demand does not change much even when prices rise. Electric cars gaining market share depends on a variety of factors, namely improving battery range, lowering costs, very high oil prices, more charging infrastructure, and better consumer acceptance. Ultimately, the vehicle revolution might not be an electric one at all. Something entirely new could be coming since electric cars already lost the transport race. Most probably do not realize that nearly 40 percent of U.S. cars in 1900 were electric, only to be ultimately be beaten out by oil – still the world’s most vital fuel.