Hot spring market? Nope. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show April was colder than usual, as demand continues to drop. Generally speaking, the market is seeing price moderation, lower sales, and rising inventory levels.

Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Dropped Over 5%

The benchmark composite, the price of a typical home in Toronto, is down. TREB reported the benchmark across all regions is now $766,300, a -5.15% decline from last year. In the City of Toronto, that number now sits at $830,500, a 1.55% increase compared to last year. Yes, the city’s market is now 30% below CPI, Canada’s most frequently used measure of inflation.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

CREA numbers show the drop in Greater Toronto prices is significant. The last time the benchmark declined this much, was 2009. Just a half point more, and it’ll be the largest decline since CREA has been publishing benchmarks.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

The Median Toronto Real Estate Sale Price Dropped Over 9%

The median price is showing more significant declines. TREB reported a median sale price of $684,900, a 9.88% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw the median sale price drop to $685,000, a 4.19% compared to last year. Median prices are more common internationally, and are a favorite indicator of Mainland Chinese buyers. Median sale prices do not account for the change in sales mix, so it’s not useful for telling you how much you’ll pay for a home. However, it is useful for gauging upgrade flow.

In a healthy market, people sell their home, and buy a more expensive one. This typically increases the median sale numbers. When this number drops, sellers may be waiting for less exuberance to re-enter the market, or selling secondary homes. If you’re trying to figure out if that’s the case, TREB’s seller survey did indicate 25% of sellers have no immediate plans to buy a new home.

Toronto Real Estate Average Sale Prices Dropped Over 12%

The average sale price continued into negative territory, but saw the rate of decline improve. The average sale price across TREB reached $804,584, a 12.4% decline compared to last year. It’s seasonally normal to see the rate of growth increase from March to April, last year being a notable exception. Once again, an average isn’t a marker of how much you would pay, it’s a stronger indicator of upgrade flow.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Sales Drop 33%

Toronto real estate sales are still trending lower. TREB reported 7,792 sales in April, a 33% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw 2,946 of those sales, a 29.25% decline compared to the year before. This is the slowest April for sales since 2003. Despite what people say, that means little without any context to inventory. Reserve your judgement for a sec.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Listings Are Up 40%

New listings are down for Toronto real estate, but inventory levels are still swelling. TREB saw 16,273 new listings in April, a 24.76% decline from last year. The City of Toronto saw 5,299 of those new listings, a 24.46 decline compared to last year. This brings the sales to new listings ratio to 47%, which is technically a “balanced” market. That indicator is less useful when rapidly changing, since it could just be making a pit stop on the way lower.

Despite the decline in new listings, active listings continued to rise. TREB reported a 18,206 active listings, a 40.84% increase compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw 4,785 of those active listings, a 13.44% increase from last year. The decline in new listings didn’t impact overall levels, so much as the sales. You can judge now.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Low to negative price growth, lower sales, and higher inventory levels were all anticipated, coming off of a record year. However, the combination of stress testing, higher interest rates, and a huge segment of sellers looking to cash out, might make things a little sloppier than expected. On the upside, maybe Pitbull will perform Timber at the next Toronto Real Estate Wealth Expo.

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