COVID-19 modelling projections show that measures Ontario implemented so far have saved thousands of lives and prevented hundreds of thousands of new cases, but that hundreds more could die by the end of the month without stronger controls.

On Thursday Premier Doug Ford promised to share models on Ontario’s outbreak trajectory that he and other provincial leaders have seen, saying that “over the next little while, we will all have to make some very, very difficult decisions. You deserve the same information I have.

“You deserve to see the same data I see when I’m making decisions.”

The public briefing on those models is scheduled for noon Friday. Ford said he had seen multiple projections, and it’s not clear what modelling will be presented at the briefing, which is being helmed by leaders from Public Health Ontario, the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, and Ontario Health.

Slides on Ontario’s COVID-19 outbreak created for the province and seen by the Star show deaths and cases could continue to balloon without stronger interventions.

Epidemiological modellers stress that the exact number of projected cases and deaths in any model is less important than the range of possible outcomes: they are not intended to be a crystal ball, and are most useful for comparing how different interventions might affect the course of the outbreak.

In general, it is difficult to forecast the path of an outbreak caused by a virus we have only known about for a few months. Researchers in Ontario have also said their models are uncertain because they don’t have enough data from the province to calibrate them. More information has been released in the past week to help them and to inform the public, but some say more data is needed to make projections more accurate.

While British Columbia’s epidemic curve appears to be flattening, Ontario’s COVID-19 data continues to be alarming, with patients in intensive care units rising rapidly, and constraints on lab capacity muddying signals on the true burden of illness in the province.

Ontario’s epidemic has jumped by 442 cases in 24 hours, according to the Star’s latest count of the public tallies and press releases issued by the province’s regional public health units.

As of 11 a.m. Friday, 98 people have died from COVID-19 in Ontario, with a total of 3,407 infections so far, up 14.9 per cent from the same time Thursday.

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