It may seem counterintuitive, but with the government reporting stronger-than-expected economic growth at the end of last year, now is the time to think about renewed recession  and to act to avoid it.

The economy grew at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. But well over half of that growth came from large adjustments to business inventories that are unlikely to be repeated on a similar scale in the months to come. As such, they are evidence that the sick economy is recovering, not that it is healthy.

Another chunk of growth was due to government stimulus spending, which will wane in 2010. Much of the recent upsurge in business purchases of equipment and software was likely due to a rush to take advantage of an investment tax break before it expired in December.

So, what does it take to translate an incipient recovery into a sustained expansion? In a word: jobs. Employment leads to income and to spending. As sales deplete inventories, businesses restock, which creates more jobs and so on in an upward spiral.