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This article was published 5/5/2017 (1231 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Opinion

Kevin O’Leary’s surprising exit from the Conservative leadership race appears to pave former cabinet minister Maxime Bernier’s path to victory. While it is somewhat difficult to accurately predict support in this leadership race, O’Leary and Bernier have generally been seen as the top-tier candidates. With O’Leary out and Bernier able to poach a good portion of his supporters as a result of his endorsement, the prospect of the Beauce, Que., MP as Conservative leader is now more likely.

O’Leary claims to have endorsed Bernier because he felt Bernier was in the best position to clinch the most seats for the party in Quebec in the next election. This is likely true. Of all the Conservative leadership candidates, Bernier would probably be most successful at boosting the Conservatives’ current measly 12 seats in the province.

Indeed, if O’Leary is correct in his assessment, Bernier (who is reputedly popular in Alberta) may be positioned to rebuild former prime minister Brian Mulroney’s electoral coalition: that of Quebecers and Western Canadians.

Could he do so? On the surface, a Bernier win would suggest the Conservatives have chosen a leader to match the strengths and talents of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. Like Trudeau, Bernier is both (relatively) young and telegenic. He is known on Parliament Hill for his tailored suits. While Bernier is eloquent, Trudeau probably bests him on this measure.

Where Bernier differs from Trudeau is in the bedrock of policy conviction he’ll bring to the position of leader if elected. Trudeau’s political career has not been one characterized by consistent policy beliefs. In the 2015 election, for example, Trudeau seemed to pick and choose promises to patch together a coherent electoral program. Since being elected, however, several of these promises have either been broken or have disappeared from public view. Trudeau’s emphasis as Liberal leader has been more on sizzle and less on steak.

Bernier will bring some sizzle to the job of Conservative leader, but he’ll bring a lot of steak. Since first being elected in 2006, Bernier has espoused a meaty libertarian view of the role of government that, if imported into and empowered within the Conservative party, will both change the nature of the party’s appeal and provide fodder for Bernier’s political opponents.

"I’m in politics for the ideas," Bernier claimed at the outset of the leadership race. "If I run, I will run for more freedom and less government intervention in our day-to-day lives."

Bernier claims to be a libertarian, with a caveat: "I’m reasonable." In Canada, with its famously mixed economy, such libertarianism means Bernier is opposed to a great number of things: supply management for milk and eggs; interprovincial trade barriers; tight regulation of the telecommunication and airline sectors, with associated costs passed to consumers; and, corporate welfare, including government bailouts to Quebec-based Bombardier.

While Bernier’s positions on these issues will appeal to some and repel others, it is undeniable that, if implemented, they would constitute radical changes to the Canadian economy.

Bernier is also a decentralist who hopes to limit the role of the federal government in Canadians’ lives and end federal intrusion in areas of provincial jurisdiction, particularly health care. Bernier, who regularly denounces the federal spending power in health care, would cut taxes and allow the provinces to use this vacated fiscal room to fund their health-care systems.

This may be welcome news to the stewards of provincial health-care system in Manitoba and elsewhere, who are grappling with federal reductions in health transfers. But Bernier’s position will be difficult to swallow for defenders of the Canada Health Act.

Social conservatism does not factor into Bernier’s libertarianism, which often seems aimed at young, Internet-savvy millennial voters. When the Conservative party voted to formally remove opposition to same-sex marriage from its platform in 2016, Bernier was front and centre in news coverage cheering upon hearing the result of the vote. Last summer, he marched in Toronto’s Pride parade.

None of this will endear Bernier to older, socially conservative voters. But it may cause younger and more urban voters who never voted for former leader Stephen Harper to take a second look at the Conservative party.

Can Bernier translate his policy views into a coherent platform that can win back power for the Conservative party? Not without some tempering of those views and some accommodation of figures within the party who feel left out of the Bernier worldview. Bernier will also have to work hard to cultivate relationships with his former leadership opponents and other Conservative MPs.

Bernier will have to quickly learn to defend his libertarian views, not from questions posed by friendly critics during events hosted at the Manning Centre, but rather from Liberals who will be out for blood.

Royce Koop is an associate professor and head of the department of political studies at the University of Manitoba.