I know what the first thing on your mind is: Hey, Chopp, did you know today is the first day of spring, meteorologically speaking? And, my answer: Why, yes I did fellow weather nerd. I appreciate you reminding me.

What I am getting at is this is a new month. Turn the page. Start over. Bad…….or good. February is over; it’s on to March. Let’s start this puppy off right. As I type this, Keith is screaming DOOOOOOOOOONG in the mic. Not because he’s screaming my name, but because some dude I’ve never heard hit a homer and Keith is apparently listening to baseball in the background. All sports all the time with this guy. Me, I was listening to some Shooter Jennings and old Waylon. Enough about us……let’s tackle this slate.

****Reminder….All picks can change leading up to 7 pm ET as we get more news opening up****

After glancing at the Morning Briefing, I hope you have some targets picked out that appear to be in successful fantasy producing spots. Let’s roll out the position picks for each position, along with some bonus picks at the end. These are picks Keith likes for a variety of reasons. They are not necessarily the “top option on the board,” “chalk options,” “highest scoring,” “GPP only,” or whatever other moniker you want to assign. These are Keith’s favorite options when combining all of these factors….

The graphics you are looking at is a rolling 30-day snapshot indicating average performance above/below expected points along with a percentage of times said player has exceeded projections. The blue line indicates fluctuations in salary over the same 30-day time frame. The bar graph shows how far above/below a particular date resulted vs expected production.

**We primarily use a trend created for spotting both value and performance. Our Dominator trend has performed solidly at predicting a player’s tendency to outperform his expectations with right at 2/3 consistency, back tested in over 800 separate events from the 2015-16 season. Past results on 02/29/2016 pulled players like Giannis, Favors, Middleton, and Kyrie Irving. We have tightened the trend even a little more to further identify these players for you. Everyone pulled from the Dominator trend is on the cheatsheets for you to use at will.**

Now, your starting 5….

PG – Goran Dragic ($6300)

15 gm slash line – 28.4 FD pts/gm – 14.8/4.1/6.1 – Even with Derrick Rose slated to play, Goran Dragic has been playing at a very high level lately. Rose’s defensive prowess isn’t enough to get me off Dragic in what is, on paper, one of the very best PG matchups of the night. Rose isn’t exactly an elite defender. Since Chris Bosh has been missing, MIA has been playing at a more efficient offensive clip, and this uptick in efficiency starts directly with Goran Dragic. Even though it’s still Dwayne Wade’s team, Dragic is performing like the PG Miami thought they were getting at last year’s trade deadline.

SG – Jordan Clarkson ($6000)

15 gm slash line – 27.1 FD pts/gm – 16.8/4.3/3.5 – With Kobe out tonight, Jordan Clarkson gets the immediate bump along with our Value Play Lou Williams. It certainly doesn’t hurt they draw the Brooklyn Nets. Clarkson should be able to handle the likes of Bogdanovic with no problems. It’s not often the Lakers are favored, and if they are going to validate Vegas, the Lakers will be relying heavily on the Lakers’ guards.

SF – Luol Deng ($6000)

15 gm slash line – 28.2 FD pts/gm – 15.3/7.2/1.6 – Since the All Star Break, Luol Deng has been playing like he’s had a shot of 5-hr Energy each night. Deng “could” be one of the highest owned players on the night being that he’s going back to CHI (revenge narrative warning). Small forward is not exactly a deep position tonight, so don’t get caught overthinking this one. Don’t get caught up in his price being on the rise to the point he can’t outperform his salary, either.

PF – Aaron Gordon ($6500)

15 gm slash line – 30.9 FD pts/gm – 11.5/10.0/2.5 – Aaron Gordon has been the NBA version of the DFS Darling since the ASB. With his freakish athletic ability and capability to fill the stat sheet, he is still severely underpriced for his production. We will be locked and loaded most nights until this situation changes.

C – Nikola Vucevic ($8100)

15 gm slash line – 37.9 FD pts/gm – 20.2/9.8/3.3 – Does the name Zaza Pachulia scare you? If not, you should be playing Vucevic. He has the same floor as Pau Gasol and basically the same ceiling at over $1000 less in salary. On paper, Vuc has the better matchup and has actually been even more consistent than Gasol.

And, now for your Bonus Picks….

Stud of the Night – Damian Lillard (PG – POR)

This is the highest priced player on the slate not named Steph Curry. I think he outperforms Pau Gasol tonight and he has the capability within him to drop 65 if the game stays close enough.

Value of the Night – Lou Williams (SG – LAL)

Kobe is out so Lou Williams will get more playing time. With his price dropping $600 over the past month on top of drawing a very good matchup, this is the window a DFS’er looks to jump through at every chance. We’ve seen his ability to get hot, and when getting the playing time we have seen him go for 35-40+.

GPP of the Night – Chandler Parsons (SF – DAL)

At a shallow position tonight, Parsons is just someone I love to return to again and again when the situation calls. He has the ability to go for either 20 or 40. In GPPs, we don’t necessarily care about the 20 because we are trying to hit the 40. He draws a solid matchup and has been testing his upside almost half the time over the past month.

“Brass Balls” Fade of the Night….None

That’s right…..none. I like hanging my balls out there for the wind to blow, but there just isn’t anything worth letting them hit the mailbox with tonight. I mean I like making huge calls, but even fading someone “huge” on this slate tonight isn’t a big enough call to really put the Brassies on the line.

As always, Keith will be available in the Slack VIP Channel to update you on injury news, and how to pivot if need be….make sure to join in the conversation. He’s always open to answering questions, but if you are going to ask if you should play “Player X” over “Player Y” make sure you check the rankings on the cheat sheets before asking unless news has come out that could possibly change the situation. Thank you!

Cheat Sheets are condensed….remember, there will be players that are not on this sheet that go off. The goal here is to not overload you with a lot of combinations. Sure, I can put in 15 PG’s and 10 PF’s. And then say, “the winning lineup was on the Sheet” but that doesn’t help us. I’m giving you options at varying price points, so you can build varying types of lineup. I feel the last two months of the season, we will have better success by choosing from a smaller pool. We are also including sample cash LUs to put our picks into action, as well. LET’S MAKE THAT MONEY!!!

Be sure to join in on the Slack conversation in the VIP section for up to the minute injury news and pivots.

The Google Sheets version to the cheat sheets are HERE, or you can download the excel or pdf version below.

NBA Cheat Sheet

NBA Cheat Sheet FD PDF

NBA Cheat Sheet DK PDF

FanDuel Optimal Cash Game Lineup

DraftKings Optimized Cash Game Lineup

Good Luck Army!