The Philadelphia Union beat Atlanta United 3–1 this past weekend and it was seen largely as an upset throughout MLS. This game was exciting as both teams possess a potent offense that can find ways to score against the toughest of defenses, but why is Atlanta perceived to be the bigger team when Philly has been in the driver seat for most of the season? For one Atlanta are the defending champs and despite a slow start under Frank De Boer, and Pity Martinez being declared a colossal waste of money after June, they have awoken from their slumber and were 9–1 in their last 10 matches in all competitions. Josef Martinez has been a talisman for Atlanta during this time with Pity Martinez finally catching up to his preseason promise.

However, when you dive deeper into the numbers behind both Atlanta and Philadelphia’s 2019 season… a very different picture is painted than the one MLS would like you to be seeing. Where leading striker Kacper Przybylko might not be Josef Martinez quality… he is very good, over 11 xG and 2.7 xA so far this campaign. Then you look at their options out on the wings and in the midfield; Fabrice-Jean Picault has an xG+xA of 9.1, Marco Fabian has an xG+xA of 8.6, Jamiro Monteiro — who was a standout for me against Atlanta — has an xG + xA of 9.8, and Ilsinho has an xG + xA of 6.3… all of this to say that the Union have 7 players that are contributing chances at a level higher than United’s Ezequiel Barco.

For all of the talk about Atlanta’s depth, Philly is deeper on the attack and it’s not really close.

Let’s look at some game tape, focusing on this past weekend’s showdown, you will see a superstar being a superstar vs total team goals from Philadelphia.

After the VAR negated goal by Przybylko, the Union get another Grade A chance in the 44' thanks to swarming and pressing the Atlanta defense after they lose possession initially — this leads to the ball falling to Monteiro’s feet with men already forward into the box. Monteiro finds Przybylko who fires it near side but Guzan is able to recover and parry it away.

Down 1–0 after a Josef Martinez goal, another turnover caused by Union’s midfield leads to 2 attackers free behind Atlanta’s backline on the counter-attack. This goal is an easy put in from Brenden Aaronson since Guzan has to split his focus between both attackers forward.

The Union goes up 2–1 on a lazer from Przybylko after Sergio Santos is sprung on the wing thanks to a beautiful through ball from Kai Wagner, this is just 2 great passes and your striker taking care of business.

Shoutout to the bug on the camera lens for contributing nothing to Atlanta’s defense.

The clinching 3rd goal comes off a 4v4 opportunity carried in by Ilsinho, Przybylko then makes an overlapping run behind Ilsinho and Atlanta’s back 4 look lost. Przybylko then splits 2 defenders and finds Santos in the middle. This pass is actually a little behind Santos’ run but it almost works out better that way as Franco Escobar does his best spin cycle impression and Philadelphia clinch the game.

This is a dangerous team, it is not without its faults but the fact that they are so dynamic moving upfield makes you think that they could take out anyone in a 1 and done scenario. I still am a little weary on the situation in Goal (especially compared to how solid Guzan has been for Atlanta) but I also don’t think it is as big of a question mark as to what Atlanta or even NYCFC have still yet to answer this season.

Doop. Doop. Doop.

Never Change Philly.

Thanks for reading! I’m going to be publishing pieces on this page on weeks where the lads aren’t recording an episode of the podcast, so I hope you stick around for my MLS breakdowns and any St. Louis expansion news. If you’re just finding us here, you can follow the podcast on Instagram and Twitter, and listen to our latest podcast embedded below.

Thanks for reading,

-Justin