New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers ( -8 ) – O/U: 203

The Knicks are in the midst of a complete freefall right now and I’m not interesting in rostering anyone rocking the blue and orange this evening.

On the other side of the court, I am interested. The Pacers can certainly pounce on this team who is down in the dumps and Paul George would be the likely candidate to get it done the most. After a subpar performance in Orlando on Sunday, PG13 bounced back for 53.2 FD points against a stingy Heat defense. Other than him, Ian Mahinmi and George Hill intrigue me a bit but not enough to roster.

Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers ( -8 ) – O/U: 205.5

I really like the Cavs in this game tonight, mainly LeBron James and Kevin Love. LBJ is matchup-proof so I’m not worried in the least bit about him since he’s averaged 44.5 FD points against the Hornets this season. Love goes up against a defense that ranks 25th in the NBA this season against power forwards, but fifth in the last three weeks. I’m not concerned about the near past since Love has averaged about 35 FD points per game against the Hornets this season. Tristan Thompson also has a very good matchup.

For the Hornets, the only considerations I’d have are Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons ( -11 ) – O/U: 210.5

This should be an Andre Drummond feast of all sorts tonight. The Sixers have been giving up big performances to centers all season long. The defensive transparency doesn’t stop at center for the Sixers as they give up points to everyone. Reggie Jackson is a great play to pair up with the Drummond on the pick-and-roll. Anyone can work really against this porous defense- Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Stanley Johnson.

I’m not interested in any Sixers this evening.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors ( -9.5 ) – O/U: 212

Karl-Anthony Towns…and that’s all I got to say about that (Forrest Gump voice). The Raptors can’t stop anyone down low, and the last time these two teams faced off, KAT had 35 points and 11 rebounds. If you’re as cynical as I am, you may have thoughts of the Raptors quadruple-teaming him tonight. Don’t worry though, it seems like nothing could stop this guy right now. Also down low for the T-Wolves, Gorgui Dieng could be a cheaper alternative to having some exposure to this frontcourt.

Note: This is what the Raptors have given up in the last two weeks to opposing centers. In the game against Memphis, Zach Randolph played center so he didn’t necessarily qualify for this list.

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan should have no problem getting it done tonight against the young gunners of the T-Wolves. The nine-point spread indicates they’re in a great position, so these should be two of the safer plays on the board.

Golden State Warriors ( -8 ) @ Miami Heat – O/U: 215

The last time these two got together it was pretty tight most of the game and I’m expecting the same from two of the hotter teams in the NBA right now. Side note: The Warriors have been favored in 51 of their 55 games this season – mind, officially blown. For me, it’s hard to imagine them being underdogs ever again.

You really don’t need much of a sales pitch to roster any Warriors, even against one the NBA’s better defensive teams. Usually in this article, you get the Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green spiel but tonight I’m just going with Curry; I still like Dray and Klay, but I don’t hate their guts because they slept with my imaginary wife. Regardless of all the hee-haw, it’s a Wednesday night with a ton of games and that means there’s plenty more favorable options to go with. However, for cheaper options I think you can skate by with Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes.

I’ve said it time and time again, but Goran Dragic excels in an up-tempo setting; it almost makes you wonder what the hell he’s doing in Miami in the first place- oh yea, it’s Miami. The Warriors now rank 26th in the NBA against opposing point guards this season, and dead-last in the last three weeks. The Heat are playing very well, and besides Dragic, there’s also Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside to talk about. Deng really excelled without Dwayne Wade in the lineup, but after struggling in the first half of on Monday (Wade’s first game back from injury), he turned it up like a crazed maniac in the second half. Deng also had a fairly productive game in the previous meeting in Golden State, but he was much cheaper at the time. Whiteside is trying to repair his image after having yet another ejection in the game before the All-Star break. In the two games after the break, Whiteside has played 70 minutes and had a combined 44 points, 41 rebounds and eight blocks- good for 108.7 FD points/54 per game.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies ( -8 ) – O/U: 206.5

There are some pretty good options for value in this game, but we’ll start with the Grizzlies. Zach Randolph has been patrolling the paint well since Marc Gasol had his season-ending injury; this scenario is no different tonight. Mike Conley draws a favorable matchup too, but don’t let his last game where he only had 19 FD points get you down. Prior to Sunday, Conley was right at or over his 5x value in six of the previous nine games. Tony Allen doesn’t look like he’ll play tonight so Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson, Vince Carter and PJ Hairston are all viable options to pick up the workload.

I don’t mind Kobe Bryant at all tonight; without Allen to go against him there’s really no one that can completely hold him in check. I’m one of the only people not on the D’Angelo Russell train, but his price is making it harder for me not to climb aboard. There are so many good options at point guard tonight, so I’ll hold off once again but I’ll be keeping a close eye to see how he’s progressing. Julius Randle, aka “Mini Z-Bo” could get busy but I’m not willing to take that risk on the large slate.

Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls ( -2 ) – O/U: 211

Everything says John Wall will be the top player in this game, and I can’t think of one reason why he wouldn’t be. The Bulls, mainly Derrick Rose, are a fish flopping around on land trying to defend opposing point guards and rank fourth-worst in the NBA in the regard. D-Rose actually sees a nice boost too with the up-tempo pace coming to the Windy City tonight. Pau Gasol keeps doing big things but he’s dealing with the flu and there’s plenty of other matchups I’d rather take advantage of.

Moving off away from the marquee names, there’s great value that we need to discuss. Whenever I write about the Wizards, I’d be remiss not to mention their ineptitude when it comes to defending three-point shooters. E’Twaun Moore and Doug McDermott stand to benefit from this factor; Moore went 4-for-4 from behind the arc against the Lakers on Sunday and he’s shooting 55% from out there in the month of February while McDermott is 7-for-9 in his last two games and 44% on the season.

Oklahoma City Thunder ( -4.5 ) @ Dallas Mavericks – O/U: 215

OKC got thumped at home Sunday on national TV, so I’m kind of intrigued to know why this line is only slightly in their favor. Russell Westbrook has underperformed in his last two games against the Mavericks (he got ejected in the second quarter of Jan.13 game) after hitting for 58.5 FanDuel points against them on Nov.22 in the first matchup. I’m willing to bet we’ll see the 50+ Westbrook tonight who will be matched up against Deron Williams.

Kevin Durant also comes in as a solid play and I have no problem rostering both him and Westbrook. Hell, why the hell would I or anyone have a problem with that? Don’t mind Serge Ibaka or Enes Kanter either to shave some salary.

The line indicates this will be a close game so I think Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews are all in play.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers ( -10 ) – O/U: 213.5

He crushed everyone’s dreams, including mine, on Monday night but it’s time to quickly forgive Jamal Crawford. The Nuggets are brutal on defense, they played an up-tempo game last night and on top of all that, give up the fourth-worst three-point percentage in the NBA. Players like Crawford aren’t going to drop two duds in a row and I’m hoping that people will still be pissed at Monday’s performance and leave him off their rosters tonight.

Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan have favorable matchups, to put it kindly. Neither guy will face too much resistance, and maybe not enough for them to pay off on their high prices.

Nikola Jokic has been crushing it the last two games and tonight he could make it three in a row. I don’t mind Danilo Gallinari here either.

San Antonio Spurs ( -7 ) @ Sacramento Kings – O/U: 216.5

The Kings played in the high-altitude of Denver last night and their laissez-faire attitude towards defense make this a perfect matchup for the Spurs. LaMarcus Aldridge is about as safe as they come since he’s scored at least 35 FD points in eight of his last nine games. With Kawhi Leonard still listed as questionable and yet to play in a game since the All-Star break, this only adds to the Aldridge narrative.

This also bodes well for Tony Parker and Danny Green; the Kings give up the most three-pointers on average per game, so bombs away, gentlemen. Kyle Anderson has played at least 28 minutes in his last three games; the matchup is great but on a Wednesday night in the Mega Slam, I want more assuredness out of the guys on my roster.

I never like playing guys going against the Spurs, but if Leonard is out then I’m not as appalled at the thought of rostering any Kings. The projection sheets love Rajon Rondo today, mainly because he’ll be going up against Parker. Rondo had a bad performance in Denver last night, but great players typically won’t drop two duds in a row. I’m not high on DeMarcus Cousins tonight since he’ll likely draw Aldridge; Cousins is becoming as matchup-proof as they come nowadays, but I’d rather pay up for a more favorable situation.