Since Ted Thompson took over the general manager duties for the Green Bay Packers in 2005, his team-building philosophy has centered on drafting and developing young players.

With this approach, changes are slow to notice. Thompson’s top two picks in 2005, Aaron Rodgers and Nick Collins, didn’t become impact starters until 2008. After years of successful drafting and roster building, the Packers won the Super Bowl as a No. 6 seed in the 2010 season.

After a disastrous 2017 season seven years later, it’s clear something is amiss in the system.

Since that Super Bowl season, Thompson has missed more than he hit in drafts. Below are “misses” in rounds 1-4 since 2011:

2011:

(1) Derek Sherrod, OT

(3) Alex Green, RB

2012:

(2) Jerel Worthy, DT

(4) Jerron McMillian, S

2013:

(1) Datone Jones, DE/OLB

(4) Jonathan Franklin, RB (played 11 total games before career-ending injury)

2014:

(3) Khyri Thornton, DT

(3) Richard Rodgers, TE

(4) Carl Bradford, LB

2015:

(2) Quinten Rollins, CB

Honorable mention: (5) Brett Hundley, QB

2016:

(2) Jason Spriggs, OT

(3) Kyler Fackrell, LB

In 2017, Thompson added immediate help with Kevin King, Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones. However, three of the 10 total draft picks aren’t even on the active roster and the rest have failed to meet expectations so far.

For a team that relies on the draft-and-develop philosophy, high-round busts year after year don’t bode well. While Thompson has drafted quality players more recently like Davante Adams, Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels and David Bakhtiari, he has to do better.

Another area Thompson excelled in was acquiring talented undrafted free agents. Names that come to mind are Cullen Jenkins, Ryan Grant, John Kuhn, Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Evan Smith and Lane Taylor. Jenkins, Kuhn, Williams and Shields were key contributors to the Packers’ Super Bowl run in 2010. Thompson also signed street free agents like Howard Green and Erik Walden to help with the immense amount of injuries that year. Walden had three sacks as the Packers clinched a playoff spot with a win over division champion Chicago Bears in Week 17. Green was responsible for Ben Roethlisberger’s underthrown pass that led to Nick Collins’ score in the Super Bowl.

Undrafted finds like those have been few and far between in more recent years.

According to the Packers, 17 former undrafted free agents combined for 3,657 offensive and defensive snaps during the 2016 regular season, an increase from 2,766 in 2015 and 3,290 in 2014. These players included: G Lane Taylor, CB LaDarius Gunter, LB Joe Thomas, S Kentrell Brice, WR Geronimo Allison, OL Don Barclay, LB Jayrone Elliott, TE Justin Perillo, DT Mike Pennel, CB Sam Shields, RB Don Jackson, S Marwin Evans, FB Joe Kerridge, DT Brian Price, CB Josh Hawkins, CB Makinton Dorleant and S Chris Banjo.

Impressive numbers, but misleading. By the end of the 2017 season, only five of those players remain on the active roster (not including injured reserve). Out of those five, Taylor is the lone starter and the best contributor by far. The Packers’ UDFA approach can be better described as quantity over quality.

Finally realizing the gaping holes in the roster after 2016, Thompson went out and signed numerous free agents in 2017 including Martellus Bennett, Jahri Evans, Ahmad Brooks, Lance Kendricks, Davon House and Quinton Dial. Bennett was a complete disaster, while Brooks, Evans, House and Dial have been serviceable.

On the flip side, Thompson let players in weak positions like T.J. Lang, Micah Hyde, Julius Peppers and Jared Cook sign with other teams. His biggest mistake was not signing a proven backup quarterback, as it was back in 2013 (everyone remember Seneca Wallace?).

Thompson going to the free agent market in 2017 was a self-confession of his own failures in recent drafts. The shortcomings of talent, especially on defense, were never more evident than when Aaron Rodgers went down. A defensive coordinator with a dysfunctional scheme doesn’t help much either.

Front office changes since 2010

The Packers’ success over the years hasn’t gone unnoticed by other teams looking to emulate their ways. Around 2010, teams looking to turn around their franchises began picking through the Packers’ front office:

Jan. 2010: John Schneider, director of football operations hired by the Seattle Seahawks as the executive vice president/general manager.

Jan. 2012: Reggie McKenzie, director of football operations hired by the Oakland Raiders as general manager.

May 2012: Shaun Herock, assistant director of college scouting hired by the Oakland Raiders director of college scouting.

Jan. 2013: John Dorsey, director of football operations hired by the Kansas City Chiefs as general manager.

May 2017: Tim Terry, assistant director of pro personnel hired by the Kansas City Chiefs as director of pro personnel.

The demonstrated success these men have had managing their new teams reflects on what the Packers lost upon their departures. The Schneider departure arguably hurt the most.

In the year Schneider arrived in Seattle, he completed 284 roster transactions, including making a trade for Marshawn Lynch from Buffalo for only a fourth-rounder and a conditional pick.

The Seahawks won their first Super Bowl after the 2013 season, dominating Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, 43-8. Of those on the championship roster, only Max Unger, Red Bryant, Jon Ryan and Brandon Mebane were on the Seahawks prior to Schneider’s arrival in Seattle. They returned to the Super Bowl the following year but lost to the Patriots.

Schneider has hit gems in the later rounds of drafts and UDFA signings. With Seattle, he drafted Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Tyler Lockett, and KJ Wright in the third round or later, and signed Doug Baldwin, Thomas Rawls, and Jermaine Kearse after they went undrafted. The Seahawks have also been active in free agency and the trade market under Schneider, signing star free agents Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, and trading for Jimmy Graham.

Schneider has done what Thompson hasn’t: draft, develop and fill gaps via free agency and/or trades when necessary. With an experienced staff before 2010, Thompson drafted quality players, developed them and retained the ones he could. The two rare free agent splashes he made were Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett, both of whom were excellent additions to the team.

Without his front office dream team, Thompson’s drafts have gone downhill. Year after year of investing high picks in the defense hasn’t paid off. Core players have left and found success on other teams. The undrafted free agent well has dried up. The talent isn’t as plentiful as it used to be, it’s easy to notice sans Aaron Rodgers.

Without Rodgers, the Packers are an average team at best.

Thompson’s time is coming, and he feels it. It was pleasantly surprising to see him sign free agents like Peppers and Cook in previous years, and then uncharacteristically desperate of him to sign as many as he did in this past offseason. Unfortunately, the signings either turned out poor (Bennett, Kendricks, Jean-Francois) or are one-year stopgaps for more looming needs (Evans, House, Brooks, Dial).

Thompson is believed to be under contract through the 2019 draft, potentially giving him two more as the Packers’ general manager. One year of failure after many of success shouldn’t lead to Thompson’s dismissal. But the dilemma the team faces is logical in-house replacements like Elliot Wolf and Brian Gutekunst have been patiently waiting for their chance to become an NFL general manager.

Time is nobody’s friend now in the front offices of Lambeau Field. Thompson either has to produce a more talented roster, and quickly, or Mark Murphy has to look to the future with Wolf, Gutekunst or an outside hire.