Colorado Survey of Likely 2018 Voters

Today we released a survey of 500 likely Colorado voters. This telephone survey was fielded from October 8th to 10th, 2018. The interviews were a sample mix of 50% cell phone and 50% landline phone numbers. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence level. Key Findings

There is clear evidence that Democrat voters are more energized and interested in the November elections than Republican voters. Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning the respondent was very interested in the election, 59% of Democrat respondents are a “10” compared to 47% of Republicans.

Among all respondents, 46% of likely voters prefer an outcome from the election where Democrats control Congress and 40% prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, 36% prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats, 23% prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans, and 41% are undecided.

Democrat Congressman Jared Polis leads Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton by 7 points, 47% to 40% respectively, Libertarian Scott Helker has 4% support, and 9% are undecided. This ballot test is exactly the same as the Healthier Colorado survey fielded in mid-September.

The survey included ballot test questions measuring support and opposition for the two transportation funding proposals. Voters are more likely to support and approve Proposition 109, (52% approve/23% reject/25% undecided) than Proposition 110 (35% approve/34% oppose/31% undecided). The primary difference between the two proposals is Proposition 109 would not raise taxes and Proposition 110 would.

Colorado voters are evenly split in their opinion of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court with 43% approving his confirmation and 43% disapproving.

Measuring 2018 Colorado Voter Intensity and Turnout

Is a Democratic “blue wave” in the making here in Colorado? Is the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court more likely to energize Democrats or Republicans to vote? This survey attempted to answer those questions by using a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning the respondent is very interested in the November election, and 1 meaning they were not interested at all. Among all respondents, 47% of voters responded with a 10. The results by party registration find 59% of Democrat voters being a 10, compared to 47% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. When adding the percentage of voters that responded with a 10 or 9, the survey finds Democrat voters being more interested in the November election than Republicans by an 8-point margin, 75% to 67% respectively.

Among voters that approve of the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, the combined 10 or 9 percentage is 65%, and among voters that disapprove of his confirmation the combined percentage is 73%. The bottom line is voter turnout will determine if Colorado sees a “mixed bag” of candidate and ballot initiative results or a Democrat rout. We look forward to closely tracking the ballot return data in a couple of weeks to see if Democrat voters are in fact able to exceed their turnout percentage and numbers of 2014. The following shows responses to our ballot intensity question by major voter subgroups.

Congressional and Legislative Partisan Control Preference Ballot Tests

The survey included two Congressional and legislative partisan control questions. Currently, voter opinion on who should have control of Congress has Democrats holding a 6-point lead over Republican control, 46% to 40% respectively. Among male voters the Republican control leads Democrat control, 44% to 41%. Among female voters, the Democrat control has a 13-point lead over Republican control, 50% to 37%. Among the all-important unaffiliated voters, Democrat control leads by 13 points, 36% to 23%.

Among all suburban voters, which constitute 41% of the survey sample, the preferred Congressional Democrat control also leads by 13 points, 51% to 38%. Among suburban men, preferred Democrat control leads 47% to 45%, and among suburban women the Democrat control leads by a whopping 25 points. Not surprisingly, the results for control of the state legislature are similar to the Congressional control question, with preferred Democrat control leading by 7 points, 46% to 39% respectively.

Colorado Governor Ballot Test

The survey finds Democrat Congressman Jared Polis leading Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton by 7 points, 47% to 40% respectively. This ballot test is very similar to a survey we fielded on behalf of Healthier Colorado in September, which showed Jared Polis with 47% support and Walker Stapleton with 40% support. To observers of Colorado politics, the following table showing results by voter subgroup should not be that surprising. Jared Polis leads Walker Stapleton by 13 points among women, but the race among men is tied.

Among seniors aged 65 and older, Walker Stapleton leads Jared Polis by 7 points. However, the most important subgroup of voters that decide Colorado’s elections are unaffiliated voters. Among those voters, Jared Polis has a 26 point lead over Walker Stapleton, 46% to 20% respectively and 26% are undecided. It remains to be seen if Walker Stapleton can improve his support among those voters in the remaining three weeks before Election Day.

Governor Candidate Image Ratings

The survey finds Democrat Congressman Jared Polis and Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton with very similar image ratings, both being net-positive. Among all respondents, 45% have a favorable opinion of Jared Polis, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 14% have heard of him but do not have an opinion and 5% have never heard of him. His image rating is strongest among women, voters 44 and younger, unaffiliated and suburban voters. Among all respondents, 42% have a favorable opinion of Walker Stapleton, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 14% have heard of him but do not have an opinion and 8% have never heard of him.

“I am now going to read to you the names of people active in politics. After hearing each name, I would like you to tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or a very unfavorable opinion of that person. Let’s get started…”

Image Ratings of the Democratic and Republican Political Parties

The survey included image rating questions for the Democrat and Republican parties. The image rating of the Democrat Party was slightly better than the Republican Party. Among all respondents, 48% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party and 42% have an unfavorable opinion of it. In contrast, 46% of respondents have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party and 45% and unfavorable opinion of it. What do the party image rating questions mean for the outcome of the election in Colorado? We suggest the Republican Party’s brand and image is not as terrible as some political observers would believe. Therefore, the likelihood of a “mixed-bag” election where neither political party dominates is more possible than the conventional wisdom would think. That remains to be seen.

Voter Opinion of Transportation Propositions 109 and 110

Colorado voters have an opportunity this November to approve or reject two propositions related to transportation funding. While there are many differences in the details of the two propositions, one primary difference is one raises taxes and the other does not. To measure voter support and opposition for each proposition properly respondents were read the full ballot language of each proposal. The order of the proposition questions were rotated so that 50% heard Proposition 109 first and the other 50% heard Proposition 110 first. Not surprisingly, voter support for Proposition 109, which does not raise taxes was much stronger than Proposition 110 which does raise taxes, 52% to 35% respectively.

However, with 25% of voters being undecided on Proposition 109 and 31% undecided on Proposition 110, it is premature to say either one will be approved or rejected by voters. Yet, this survey indicates that Proposition 109 is more likely to pass than Proposition 110, assuming the Yes on 109 campaign has sufficient resources.

Voter Opinion of Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation to Supreme Court

There is probably no better example of the bitter differences between Democratic and Republican voters in Colorado than their opinion of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court. Among all respondents, 43% approve of his confirmation and 43% disapprove. Among Democratic voters, 83% disapprove of his confirmation and among Republican voters 83% approve. Among the all-important unaffiliated voters, a slight plurality of 37% disapprove of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation and 31% approve. Showing their indifference to politics, 32% of unaffiliated voters have no opinion of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

“As you may know, over this past weekend Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed to the Supreme Court. Knowing this, do you approve of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court or do you disapprove of his confirmation?”

Donald Trump Job Approval

Among all respondents, 44% approve of the job the President Trump is doing, 50% disapprove and 6% are undecided. The following table show responses by voter subgroup.

Thoughts Regarding Our Sample Weighting Decisions

Any survey that attempts to measure the opinion of likely voters accurately must correctly forecast the party and age demographics of the total votes cast. In the Colorado 2014 general election, 37% of the votes cast were by Republicans, 32% by Democrats and 29% by unaffiliated voters. The other 2% of turnout was a mix of Libertarians and minor parties. For this survey, the sample is weighted to 35% Republican, 33% Democrat and 32% unaffiliated.

We believe the party weights are appropriate considering the 2-point decline (39% to 37%) in the Republican percentage of total turnout from 2010 to 2014. We also are taking into account the surge in unaffiliated voter registration, and the 2-point increase in the percentage of the total vote (27% to 29%) from 2010 to 2014. As always, we will be closely watching the demographics of ballots that are returned over the next few weeks. That data will have a significant influence on our best efforts to property forecast the outcome of the candidate and ballot initiatives this election cycle.

Survey Commissioned By

This survey was fielded and paid for by several clients of Magellan Strategies. We are not working for or with any candidates for governor or independent expenditure committees with an interest in the Colorado election for governor. Any questions regarding the survey findings or methodology, please contact David Flaherty by calling our office at 303-861-8585 or email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.

Survey Sample

The survey sample was randomly drawn from a September Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter.