Target of 5% not enough, based on warming ceiling of 2C and Australia’s ‘fair share’ of global carbon budget

Australia has already eaten through at least two-thirds of its share of a “carbon budget” that would keep global warming below 2C, requiring it to drastically escalate its emissions reduction target, according to a new report.

The study, conducted by consultancy firm Ecofys at the behest of WWF Australia, states that Australia should look to reduce carbon emissions by a “bare minimum” of 25% by 2020, based on 2000 levels.

According to the report, Australia’s “reasonable and credible” contribution to global emissions, based on a per capita output, should see it scale down emissions by between 27% and 34% by 2020.

Currently, Australia has a bipartisan emissions reduction target of 5%, although this can stretch to 25% depending on whether there are swingeing carbon cuts by major economies around the world.

The Climate Change Authority, the independent body tasked with recommending Australia’s emissions reduction targets, is set to release its latest advice this week. The Coalition has pledged to scrap the authority.

WWF’s findings, which will be submitted to the Climate Change Authority, calculate Australia’s fair share of the world’s carbon budget as 18bn tonnes.

Australia has already used up between 66% and 84% of this budget, according to the study, and will have to make progressively deeper cuts to emissions, up to 106% below 2000 levels by 2050.

While WWF concedes it is “naive” to expect the international community to come up with a single formula to share the global carbon budget, it is clear that Australia needs to do far more.

It points to the 2008 Garnaut Review, which recommended Australia reduce emissions by 25% below 2000 levels by 2020 and 90% below 2000 levels by 2050, to contribute properly to the internationally-agreed goal of keeping the world below 2C of warming from pre-industrial temperature levels.

By comparison, the Obama administration in the US has set a goal to reduce emissions by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020. The European Union has committed its 28 member states to a 20% reduction in emissions on 1990 levels by 2020. The UK, which has a 90% reduction goal by 2050, has pressed the EU to ramp up this target to 30%.

The IPCC report released last month warned that, at the current rate of emissions, the world’s carbon budget would be exhausted within 30 years.

Will McGoldrick, climate change policy manager at WWF, told Guardian Australia that the 5% target needed to be rapidly upgraded if Australia was to play its part.

“If we are maxing out our carbon budget, as we currently are, we should also max out our emissions target,” he said. “25% will probably fall marginally short, but it will at least get us back on track.

“The US is the world’s second largest emitter and a major trading partner – what are we doing if we can’t match them? It would just be untenable.

“The government is new but it needs to set up a framework that people can get involved in to set the emissions target. We’re very disappointed that the government wants to scrap the Climate Change Authority because we shouldn’t be burying our heads in the sand and ignoring independent advice.”

A spokesman for Greg Hunt, the environment minister, said that “Labor’s carbon tax” will not achieve the cut of 5% of emissions by 2020, unlike the Coalition’s Direct Action policy, which would provide incentives for businesses to reduce emissions in reverse auctions.

“Domestic emissions are set to rise from 560m tonnes to 637m tonnes, between 2010 [and] 2020, under the carbon tax,” he said. “Labor’s carbon tax does a lot of damage to households and businesses, yet it doesn't even do the job.”