Tony Blair is expected to defend himself against the findings of the Chilcot Report by claiming the situation in the Middle East would have been worse if Saddam Hussein had been left in power.

The former Prime Minister may claim that although it turned out that the Iraqi dictator did not actually have any weapons of mass destruction, (WMD), he could have developed them at a later date.

Mr Blair will say that although there were failures in post-conflict planning, the main cause of the years of bloodshed that have followed the 2003 invasion was external intervention by Iran and al-Qaeda.

The former PM will not comment publicly until Sir John Chilcot finally publishes his report on 6 July, seven years after his Iraq inquiry began, according to The Guardian. But Mr Blair is said to have been meeting allies to discuss his response to whatever Sir John says.

Although post-invasion violence may have directly or indirectly caused as many as 460,800 Iraqi deaths, and although Isis, widely believed to be more brutal than al-Qaeda, now controls a population of about 10 million Iraqis and Syrians, Mr Blair is reportedly planning to argue the Middle East situation could have been worse with Saddam still in power.

He will now reportedly argue that although no WMD were found in Iraq – despite his pre-invasion statement that intelligence had “established beyond doubt” they were being produced – Saddam retained the expertise and capacity to make them.

This, Mr Blair will claim, could have had seriously damaging consequences for stability in the Middle East and the safety of the world if Saddam had stayed in power.

Tony Blair: A career of controversies Show all 11 1 /11 Tony Blair: A career of controversies Tony Blair: A career of controversies The Tony Blair 'selfie'.. A journalist takes a picture of Kennard Phillips 'Photo Op', depicting Prime Minister Tony Blair taking a 'selfie' in front of an explosion in Iraq, during a press viewing of the exhibition Catalyst: Contemporary Art and War Tony Blair: A career of controversies Protesters pictured outside the QEII Conference centre in London in 2011 as former British PM Tony Blair give his evidence in the Chilcot Iraq Inquiry Tony Blair: A career of controversies David Lawley-Wakelin, who disrupted Tony Blair’s testimony at the Leveson Inquiry by bursting into the court Tony Blair: A career of controversies Blair giving evidence Tony Blair: A career of controversies Tony Blair visiting troops in Iraq in 2007 Tony Blair: A career of controversies Blair meeting with troops in Basra, Iraq in 2003 Tony Blair: A career of controversies Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair speaks to British soldiers at Divisional Headquaters in Basra, May 2007 Tony Blair: A career of controversies British Prime Minister Tony Blair eats dinner with British troops in Basra, Iraq, 21 December, 2004 Tony Blair: A career of controversies Syrian president Bashar El Assad during his official visit to the United Kingdom in 2002. Mr Blair tried to engage Mr Garcia in a conversation about Syria. The former Prime Minister made clear he was very much in favour of military intervention last summer. Tony Blair: A career of controversies Syrian president Bashar El Assad and wife Asma during their official visit to the United Kingdom in 2002. Mr Blair tried to engage Mr Garcia in a conversation about Syria Tony Blair: A career of controversies Former Prime Minister Tony Blair's signature adorns a program he signed for an Iraq veteran during a reception at the Guildhall in London following the service of commemoration at St Paul's Cathedral honouring UK military and civilian personnel who served in Iraq

In line with claims already made in speeches and his autobiography, Mr Blair is also expected to argue that interventions by Iran and al-Qaeda were the main cause of the chaos that engulfed Iraq after the invasion.

He is expected to accept that planning for the aftermath of the invasion was inadequate, and that the US and the UK failed to predict how sectarian and religious tensions would escalate once a strongman dictator like Saddam had been removed.

But Mr Blair, who spent nearly eight years as Middle East “peace envoy” after leaving Downing Street in 2007, will reportedly insist that things only got as bad as they did because of the influences of Iran and al-Qaeda.

It is also thought likely that he will deny he was given unequivocal warnings about such possible chaos by academic experts in a Downing Street meeting in November 2002. This may conflict with the account given by some of those academics who told The Independent last year that they had warned of the possibility of a long and vicious civil war.

One expert, Professor George Joffe of Cambridge University, also told The Independent: “There was nobody in leadership with any practical experience of how to handle a transition to democracy. They were quite childish in somehow believing that democracy would bloom.”

Mr Blair’s expected vigorous defence of his actions may well exacerbate tensions within the Labour Party. During his party leadership campaign, Jeremy Corbyn promised that Labour would officially apologise for taking Britain to war in Iraq on “the basis of deception”.