Spread Bet Saturday: Week Four Edition

Last Week: 2-3-1 (.417) 2018: 9-7-1 (.558) Best Bets: 2-1 (.667) Upset Picks: 1-2 (.333) 2018:Best Bets:Upset Picks:

*Overall: 136-102-3 (.571)

*Dates back to 2016 season

Green letters indicate pick with the spread

Marquee Matchups

#7 Stanford vs #20 Oregon

Spread: Stanford -1.5 8:00 ET ABC Football Power Index: STAN (16) > ORE (31) Public Betting: STAN 67%

With Cardinal running back Bryce Love returning from injury, I like Stanford to grind out a solid road victory. They have been playing well offensively (6.2 yards per play, 32nd in the country) even though Love has yet to regain his Heisman form from a year ago. Oregon’s defense is solid (20 ppg allowed), but it has yet to play a team as well-rounded as Stanford.

Stanford 30 Oregon 27

#22 Texas A&M vs #1 Alabama

Spread: Alabama -25.5 3:30 ET CBS Football Power Index: TAM (13) < ALA (1) Public: ALA 56%

I’ve hammered the Crimson Tide each of the past three weeks despite the astronomically high point spreads for their games. I’m holding off this week, though. The Aggies proved in their narrow loss to Clemson that they’re a quality team. They should at least keep it within four touchdowns.

Alabama 41 Texas A&M 24

#17 TCU vs Texas

Spread: TCU -3 4:30 ET FOX Football Power Index: TCU (28) < TEX (5) Public: TCU 73%

The Horned Frogs accorded themselves well last week in their 40-28 loss to Ohio State. Running back Darius Johnson was particularly impressive, as he accounted for 154 of TCU’s 511 yards of offense. Look for him and quarterback Shawn Robinson to lead the way over an erratic Texas team (remember: the Longhorns lost to a Maryland team that was subsequently beaten 35-14 by Temple).

TCU 28 Texas 21

#8 Notre Dame vs Wake Forest

Spread: Notre Dame -7 12:00 ET ABC Football Power Index: ND (15) > WF (49) Public: ND 56%

This spread seems a bit low, right? Notre Dame has yet to allow over 17 points in a game this season. Wake Forest, meanwhile, has averaged only 5.2 yards per play (80th in the nation).

Notre Dame 30 Wake Forest 17

Best Bet

#18 Wisconsin bounces back with nice road victory over Iowa

Spread: Wisconsin -3 8:30 ET FOX Football Power Index: WIS (18) > IOWA (23) Public: WIS 51%

The Badgers’ playoff hopes took a major hit last week after losing to unranked BYU, but I still think Wisconsin profiles as one of the better teams in the country. Led by their stout offensive line, the Badgers’ offense ranks 22nd in the nation in yards per play (22nd). Jonathan Taylor and company shouldn’t have too much trouble outscoring an Iowa offense that has only averaged 4.5 yards per play.

Wisconsin 27 Iowa 20

Upset Pick of the Week

Missouri (+15.5) shocks #2 Georgia

It’s no secret: I love home underdogs in conference matchups, especially when the vast majority of the betting public is backing the favorite. In other words, the House is clearly rooting for Missouri given the fact that 85% of bettors are backing Georgia. And you know what they say: the House always wins.

Moreover, Missouri quarterback Drew Lock (11 TD, 1 INT in 2018) had success against Georgia last season, throwing for four touchdowns in a losing effort. Not only do I love the underrated Tigers, who rank a respectable 26th in ESPN’s Football Power Index, with the spread, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pull the weekend’s biggest upset.

MISSOURI 31 Georgia 28

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