Much of the Republican consternation surrounds increased turnout among black voters during early voting, which concluded Saturday. African Americans accounted for 31 percent of early voters in the runoff, an increase from 25 percent during the first round of voting in October, in which candidates from all parties competed with the top two advancing. Democrats accounted for 46 percent of early runoff voters, up from 44 percent in the primary.

“Clearly Democrats are more energized than they were in the primary,” said John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster who typically works with Republicans.

Couvillon attributed the rise in African American involvement to backlash over Trump’s outsize involvement in the contest. A desire to ensure there is a check on Republicans in the state capitol also likely played a role, he added.

“I think the odds are better for Edwards in the runoff than I thought they were on primary night,” said Couvillon, who called the early voting results “fairly bad” for Rispone.

Others, however, paint a more optimistic picture for Rispone. The increased black turnout during the early voting period only means that fewer will turn out on Election Day, some Republicans say. They also argue the state has long had a huge number of registered Democrats who typically vote Republican.

“From a macro view, it looks like the governor is performing exceedingly well in early voting,” said Lionel Rainey, a Louisiana-based Republican strategist who worked for Rispone’s primary opponent, Rep. Ralph Abraham. “But if you actually look at who the voters are, Eddie did much better than you would think. I think it’s a very tight race.”

Public polling has depicted a close contest, with recent surveys showing Edwards ahead but within the margin of error. Internal RNC data also shows Edwards on top but Rispone within striking distance, according to a person familiar with the research.