Which Hearthstone Packs Should I Buy?

This is a question both new and experienced Hearthstone players ask on a regular basis. At any given moment, card packs from as many as seven sets may be available for purchase within the in-game Hearthstone store, so it’s no wonder players are looking for guidance.

New and budget players, especially, need to take an informed approach to pack opening to maximize the value of the few packs that they do purchase, whether from in-game gold or real money.

Unfortunately, (as is often the case) there is no universal answer to this question. Deciding which Hearthstone packs to buy depends heavily on several factors, such as the age of the account, pack purchase history, the proximity of the next Standard rotation, and cards needed to complete specific decks.

With all that in mind, this article will provide the recommendations for players to answer the question themselves and determine which Hearthstone packs are the best to buy.

Card Pack Changes

Beginning in August 2017, changes to Hearthstone Card Packs were implemented to ensure that players receive a Legendary card in their first 10 packs for a given set. These changes do NOT affect players who have opened ANY packs for a set prior to the change, even if the number of packs opened is less than 10. With this caveat aside, the changes, overall, can dramatically increase the expected Arcane Dust value of Hearthstone packs.

In most scenarios, players opening packs until they find a Legendary can expect an improvement over the typical expected value of 102.71 Arcane Dust per pack. Even in the worst possible scenario, players will receive an average Arcane Dust value of 86 from their first 10 packs which is a dramatic improvement over the typical worst-case average of 48 Arcane Dust per 10 packs.

More than anyone, these changes benefit new and budget-conscious players. A guaranteed Legendary for all older sets gives new accounts a brief boost to catch up their card collections. Likewise, casual and F2P players that open only a handful of packs per expansion can expect to get a Legendary sooner and, in turn, receive better value out of the few packs that they do open.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #1

Buy packs from any set for which you have not yet opened packs until a Legendary card is upacked.

Pro-tip: When implementing this recommendation, buy packs from the store one at a time. The pack changes guarantee a Legendary card in the first 10 packs, but you may open your Legendary before the 10th pack. Buying packs 10 at a time may result in unnecessary packs with regard to this strategy.

Classic Set

The Hearthstone Classic Set is the core set in the game. Introduced with the Hearthstone release, the Classic Set still has many of the game’s strongest cards. Even deep into Standard rotations, many of the Best Standard Ladder Meta Decks contain several cards from the Classic Set.

Additionally, aside from those added to the Hall of Fame, Classic Set cards are not subject to rotation out of the Standard format. Due to their evergreen nature, Classic Set cards are more likely to remain playable in the Standard format than those released with expansions.

As such, players’ primary goal should be to establish a collection of core cards from the Classic Set before moving on to packs from expansion.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #2

Build a strong foundation with the Classic Set.

Pro-tip: The weekly Tavern Brawls typically awards Classic Set card packs. This means that a Classic collection can be built more efficiently than in the past, slightly reducing the need to purchase packs from this set. With this in mind, those eyeing long-term pack efficiency may wish to buy very few Classic Card Packs knowing they’ll consistently earn one on a weekly basis.

Standard Rotation

After the preliminary packs are opened, the set each card pack belongs to remains relevant, especially for players eyeing the Standard format. Upon release of the first expansion each year, the sets available in the Standard format is updated. Expansions from two years prior are relegated to the Wild Format and are no longer available in Standard play mode.

As such, cards sets (with the exception of the Classic set) have an expiration date with regard to Standard. Keeping the Standard rotation in mind can help players determine which packs will give them longer

Year of the Mammoth (2017) Sets

The Year of the Mammoth consists of Journey to Un’Goro, Knights of the Frozen Throne, and a yet to be released expansion. All three sets will rotate out of the Standard format with the release of the first expansion in 2019. After a solid collection of Classic cards is accrued, players should focus on card packs from these sets because of their comparatively longer lifespan.

Year of the Kraken (2016) Sets

The Year of the Kraken consists of Whispers of the Old Gods and Mean Streets of Gadgetzan expansions (One Night in Karazhan as well, but that’s an Adventure). All sets will rotate out of the Standard format with the release of the first expansion in 2018. Because of their impending rotation, these sets should be less of a priority for players looking to maximize the long-term value of their collection for the Standard format.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #3

Focus on expansion card packs released in the current year.

Pro-tip: Arena rewards a card pack from the most recent set. If you are able to consistently average between 3 and 4 wins, you can get better value for your gold than buying packs outright. Check out our Arena Beginner’s Guide for more information!

Collection Status

The closer you get to a complete collection within a set, the less likely you are to open new cards. With the exception of Legendary cards, for which duplicates are no longer possible, the more cards accumulated from a particular set, the less likely it becomes that new cards will be opened. For this reason, the value of a given set decreases non-linearly with each pack opened.

Statistics courtesy of PityTracker.com can provide some insight into opening new cards at different collection percentage breakpoints.

With 0% of a set owned, in their next pack, players can expect an average of:

3.6 new Common cards.

new cards. 1.1 new Rare cards.

new cards. 0.2 new Epic cards.

new cards. 0.1 new Legendary cards

new cards 5.0 new cards in TOTAL.

With 25% of a set owned, in their next pack, players can expect an average of:

2.2 new Common cards.

new cards. 0.9 new Rare cards.

new cards. 0.2 new Epic cards.

new cards. 0.1 new Legendary cards

new cards 3.3 new cards in TOTAL.

With 50% of a set owned, in their next pack, players can expect an average of:

0.9 new Common cards.

new cards. 0.6 new Rare cards.

new cards. 0.2 new Epic cards.

new cards. 0.1 new Legendary cards

new cards 1.8 new cards in TOTAL.

With 75% of a set owned, in their next players can expect an average of:

0.0 new Common cards.

new cards. 0.3 new Rare cards.

new cards. 0.2 new Epic cards.

new cards. 0.1 new Legendary cards

new cards 0.5 new cards in TOTAL.

These diminishing returns are most relevant for players opening a substantial amount of packs within each set, but should still be taken into consideration by all players.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #4

Prioritize sets with the fewest cards owned.

Pro-tip: A full collection is an unrealistic expectation for most players. Instead, a quality collection should be the goal. Once the majority of powerful cards are obtained within a set, begin filling out your collection in others or start saving for the next expansion. Chasing a complete, or even nearly complete, set collection through pack opening alone is a fool’s errand.

Pity Timers

When it comes to Epics and Legendaries, it feels bad to go on a drought with these higher rarity cards. To account for this, Hearthstone implements pity timers for their card packs. Pity timers guarantee an Epic and Legendary cards within a given amount of packs.

Epic cards are guaranteed within 10 packs of the last Epic pull.

cards are guaranteed within of the last pull. Legendary cards are guaranteed within 40 packs of the last Legendary pull.

At first, the existence of pity timers was uncovered by statistical evidence gathered by the Hearthstone community. Eventually, Chinese laws required game publishers to publicly release the probability of digital rewards. The associated announcement verified community’s assumption that the odds of opening higher rarity cards is variable.

Important to note, however, is that pity timers are specific to card sets. This means that the pity timers related to Classic packs operate independently from those in expansion packs. For example, opening a Classic Legendary card, such as Ysera has no effect on Knights of the Frozen Throne pity timers. Likewise, opening 20 Classic packs without a Legendary drop does not increase the probability of opening a Legendary in Journey to Un’Goro.

Essentially, the greater distance between the last opened Epic or Legendary, the greater chances of opening a card of that rarity. Players can use this information to their benefit and determine which card pack offers the higher probability of an Epic/Legendary drop.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #5

Monitor your pity timers to eke out additional Epic and Legendary cards.

Pro-tip: Several tools, such as PityTracker.com, can be used to track your pack openings and provide the probability of opening Legendary and Epic cards from your next pack. This knowledge can be used to determine the potential value of the next pack in a given set compared to others.

Deck Building

The main point of accumulating cards from packs is to build powerful decks. As such, specific decks should be kept in mind when targeting card packs. In general, packs that offer the most potential upgrades should be considered in addition to the recommendations above.

A simple spreadsheet can be used to get a better idea of which packs offer the most value in terms of deck building. First, create a list of cards needed from each set. Then, depending on the rarity of the cards on the list, determine which pack offers the highest likelihood of opening a card on the list. Targeting packs from that set should help fill in any gaps in decklists.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #6

Open packs that offer the most cards required to complete specific decks.

Pro-tip: Because the average Arcane Dust value of a Hearthstone pack is 102.71 and packs cost 100 Gold, Gold and Arcane Dust can be considered, for all intents and purposes, interchangeable. As such, opening packs in search of the one or two remaining cards (especially if they’re Epic or Legendary) to complete a deck is frequently a bigger waste of resources than simply crafting said cards.

TL;DR

Readers looking for a quick answer to the question of “Which Hearthstone packs should I buy?” can find a summary of the Hearthstone Top Decks recommendations below. After all, “Time is money, friend!”

Recommendation #1: Buy packs from any set for which you have not yet opened packs until a Legendary card is unpacked.

Buy packs from any set for which you have not yet opened packs until a Legendary card is unpacked. Recommendation #2: Build a strong foundation with the Classic Set.

Build a strong foundation with the Classic Set. Recommendation #3: Focus on expansion card packs released in the current year.

Focus on expansion card packs released in the current year. Recommendation #4: Prioritize sets with the fewest cards owned.

Prioritize sets with the fewest cards owned. Recommendation #5: Monitor your pity timers to eke out additional Epic and Legendary cards.

Monitor your pity timers to eke out additional and cards. Recommendation #6: Open packs that offer the most cards required to complete specific decks.

About the Author

A card game veteran, Roffle has been infatuated with Hearthstone since closed beta. These days, he spends most of his time tinkering with decks on ladder or earning gold in Arena (f2p btw). In particular, Roffle has a wealth of experience in competitive Wild Hearthstone, including a top 16 finish in the inaugural Wild Open Tournament and numerous high end of season finishes since the format’s inception. Follow him on Twitter or check out some of his articles on Roffle.net.