What comes next for Raptors’ free-agent-to-be VanVleet? Raptors' fourth-year guard Fred VanVleet was not only in the middle of a breakout campaign when the season came to a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic, he was also poised to hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent this summer. But, true to his character, he's keeping it all in perspective, Josh Lewenberg writes.

Josh Lewenberg TSN Raptors Reporter Follow|Archive

TORONTO – Fred VanVleet knows he’s not the only NBA player stuck in limbo during these strange and uncertain times, but he also finds himself in a relatively unique position as he waits out the league’s hiatus.

Not only was the Raptors’ fourth-year guard in the middle of a breakout campaign when the season came to an abrupt halt March 11due to the coronavirus(COVID-19)pandemic, but he was poised to hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career this coming summer.

Back at home in Rockford, IL., with his girlfriend, Shontai, and their two young kids, Sanaa and Fred Jr., VanVleet hasn’t had much difficulty finding things to fill up his day. Between putting toys together, family time, working out in his garage, taking shots on his outdoor hoop – when the chilly Illinois weather permits – or continuing to build his business, the FVV clothing line, the 26-year-old has been keeping busy.

He’s got a lot on his mind these days, as most of us do, and he’s not ashamed to admit that his future – and how it might be impacted by the stoppage in play – is among the things he’s thinking about. While many professional athletes may pretend that their contract situation isn’t on the radar, the always-candid VanVleet has never been that guy.

“Obviously I think about it,” VanVleet said on a conference call Wednesday afternoon. “I’m not one of those guys that tries to give a vanilla answer. Yeah, I think about it. I’m human. I felt like I worked myself into a good position, I was having a hell of a year and I was planning on having a great playoffs to cap that off.

"I think I was in good shape and I think, more so than worry about what woulda, coulda, shoulda happened, it’s like, what’s going to happen? Are they gonna move the dates around? Does free agency move? How does it affect the [salary] cap?”

VanVleet credited commissioner Adam Silver for showing patience, putting the health of players and fans first, and not speculating on how the league will move forward without more concrete information at their disposal. But, until the point when decisions can be made, there will continue to be more questions than answers.

Can the NBA salvage any of the 2019-20 season or playoffs? If so, when and how? If it has to be cancelled – and it’s looking more and more like that will be the case – how will the off-season work? When will free agency – initially scheduled for June 30 – open and, more importantly for teams and players, how much will the league’s lost income impact the market? Those are also things that VanVleet has considered.

“It sucks because guys work their whole lives for this moment,” the Raptors’ point guard said. “But I think that the league and the union will try to do a good job to make sure that the free agents get a fair shake and it’s fair negotiating.”

When the NBA sets its salary cap ahead of each season it takes the previous year’s basketball related income (BRI) and projects it forward. Based on the revenue lost over this pandemic and from the fallout of the incident with China last fall, BRI for this current year should take a significant hit, perhaps as substantial as $2 billion, according to a league insider.

Working on that assumption, we would be looking at a cap drop from $109 million in 2019-20 to as low as $95 million next season. Here’s the important caveat, though. In the event of a drastic decline in revenue, there’s a clause in the collective bargaining agreement that allows for the league and players association to negotiate and set the cap at an agreeable number, or smooth those losses evenly over a multiple-year period.

“I don’t see a situation, just talking to people around the league, where the league is going to allow the cap to drop drastically for 2020-21,” said a source.

While it’s likely next season’s cap will take a hit, at least to some degree, it probably won’t be as significant as some might imagine given the circumstances.

With a subpar pool of players available and many teams anxiously awaiting a potentially star-studded class in 2021, this summer’s free agency season was supposed to be a quiet one anyway. It was already unclear what the market for VanVleet – one of the best players available – would be.

Just entering his prime and coming off a remarkable season – which followed a series of heroic performances en route to Toronto’s championship last year – VanVleet will be in demand, regardless of what the market looks like. The question is, how many teams will be able to pay him the kind of money that he’ll be looking for, and that he’s earned?

As it stands, there are only six teams that project to have significant cap space this summer, and most of them are losing clubs without an obvious need at the point guard position: Atlanta, Charlotte, Phoenix, New York, Detroit and Memphis.

The Raptors want to keep VanVleet – they’ve made that clear. They can also use his Bird rights to go over the cap or into the luxury tax to pay him, if they choose. They’re the only team that can do that.

That said, they’ve also prioritized maintaining flexibility for the summer of 2021 – when all but Pascal Siakam’s max contract and Norman Powell’s player option come off their books. You can be sure that they’ve done the math and have a number that they’re unable or unwilling to exceed in order to retain VanVleet’s services.

If a declining cap and dried up market mean there are fewer competitive offers out there for VanVleet, that could work in Toronto’s favour. Still, all it takes is one team to like him enough and then there’s his leverage. What if his former coach Dwane Casey and the Pistons – who have money and a need at the position – offer something like $72 million over four years? Would the Raptors be willing or able to match?

VanVleet is on record as saying he wants to stay in Toronto, but he’s also an intelligent businessman who bet on himself and has earned the big raise that’s eventually coming his way.

Another option would be for VanVleet to bet on himself again, sign a one-year deal and then re-enter the market in 2021, when the cap should level off and more teams will have money to spend. After signing a two-year, $18 million contract with the Raptors as a restricted free agent in 2018, VanVleet admitted he wouldn’t have considered another short-term deal under regular circumstances.

These aren’t regular circumstances, though.

“Everything’s on the table,” he said. “I’m in a position where I feel like I’ve done my work and proven my worth. We’re going to position ourselves the right way, but also we’re kind of waiting to see what’s offered. We have to wait to see what’s offered.”

“I’ll just say I’m flexible. I’m open. I’ll listen. I think everybody knows what a best-case scenario looks like. We’ll start there and work our way down.”

For now, all VanVleet can do is think about it, wait and hope for the best. The Raptors have hit pause on the business of basketball and couldn’t negotiate a new contract with VanVleet even if they wanted to – he’s not eligible for an extension. He’s obviously not able to negotiate with anybody else until the season ends and the off-season begins, whenever that might be.

It’s an unusual situation to be in but, true to his character, VanVleet is keeping it all in perspective.

“Obviously we’ll probably all take a hit at some point but hopefully the hit is minimized to just this year and so there’s ways to work around that stuff,” he said. “But at the end of the day, I think peoples’ health and well-being and frame of mind are a lot more important than a couple million here or there because we’re all filthy rich compared to what we came from in the first place. So I don’t think anybody is crying over it.”

“I’m pretty flexible and I adapt. Hopefully, we get a chance to finish the season, but if not I’m happy with the year that I put on display. I’ll let the business take care of the business, but I have full faith that everything will work out the way it’s supposed to. So I’m not really worrying about it too much.”​