Despite Twitter and Youtube shutting down Chinese propaganda channels, the CPC has so far succeeded in turning the mainland against the Hong Kong ‘rebels’, but this antagonisation can backfire by pushing the mainland public to demand the CPC to crackdown hard on Hong Kong and casts doubts on Hong Kong ever integrating fully with the mainland.

The protests and general unrest in Hong Kong over the last few weeks started as a movement against the controversial extradition bill, that would make it possible for Hong Kong residents to be extradited to China. It was controversial because Hong Kongers have little faith in the Chinese justice system and fear extradition of people critical of the CPC, and thus this bill was seen as yet another example of their previously enjoyed freedoms crumbling in the face of increased authoritarianism.

The bill was eventually suspended and later withdrawn by Chief Executive Carrie Lam, the leader of Hong Kong elected not-so-democratically by a 1200 man Election Committee comprised largely of pro-Beijing members.

But it did not make the protests stop. The movement has since then become a force against increased authority from Beijing, and is by many young people seen as the ‘last chance’ to fight before Hong Kong loses all their privileges and becomes a part of China proper.

The current situation is a deadlock for all sides and it is near impossible to get what is to them the best scenario, let alone craft a solution for all parties.

a Hong Kong protestor gets a gun pointed at him by the riot police, but nothing happens (yet). A good analogy for the situation as a whole.

The protestors in Hong Kong want either the status quo or independence, neither of which are likely to happen considering the ‘one country, two systems’ doctrine will expire in 2047, and Beijing granting Hong Kong independence is unrealistic, to say it lightly. At best the situation can escalate to the point that it becomes too expensive for Beijing to crackdown, forcing them to extend the status quo. At worst, tanks in the streets.

For the Communist Party of China, the situation is difficult too. On one hand they are engaging in full on information warfare with the goal of keeping supports for the protests low at home as well as internationally, although the latter has seen very little success. On the other, this strategy can backfire.

As the protests, — and the Chinese media campaign — continue, the public anger created in the mainland will demand the CPC to be tougher on Hong Kong, and any attempt at reconciliation will look ‘weak’ and feel like capitulation.

Of course, the CPC cannot afford to legitimize pro-democracy protests by making concessions while looking weak at home, and thus for a large part due to it’s own media campaign will be forced into increased escalation if the protests stay as intense as they have been for the last weeks.

Carrie Lam like all other actors finds herself in an impossible situation. She herself would actually like to resign according to leaked audio of a meeting obtained by Reuters: ‘’But for a chief executive to have caused this huge havoc to Hong Kong is unforgivable. It’s just unforgivable. If I have a choice, the first thing is to quit, having made a deep apology, is to step down.’’

But she can’t step down, as she clarifies later:

‘’Once an issue has been elevated to the situation, to a national level, to a sort of sovereignty and security level, let alone in the midst of this sort of unprecedented tension between the two big economies in the world. The room, the political room for the chief executive who, unfortunately, has to serve two masters by constitution, that is the central people’s government and the people of Hong Kong, that political room for maneuvering is very, very, very limited.

…

I’m sure you know that now 1.4 billion mainland people already have formed a view about what is happening in Hong Kong. So, without going into a lot more details, I can only share with you discreetly that the room for me to offer a political situation in order to relieve the tension, nor to reduce the pressure on my frontline police officers in order to at least respond, or pacify the large number of peaceful protesters who are so angry with the government, with me in particular, of absolutely dead silence despite repeated participation in the protests, is what causes me the biggest sadness.’’

The first part of escalation seems to have started already. Prominent activists Joshua Wong and Agnes Chow were arrested and the saturday protest was banned, after Chinese state media has been pushing the idea of being tougher on the ‘near terrorists’ and arguing to put an end to the ‘seperatists’. It’s safe to assume this media campaign also reflects the words of Beijing behind the scenes pushing the Hong Kong government to do more. How the protestors will react to increased crackdown, will make all the difference.

To conclude, it’s an impossible situation without any real solution.

What I see as the two most likely scenario’s are either an extreme turning point set in motion by large scale escalation by either side, such as a martyr on either side or Chinese troops in the streets, or — what I deem the most likely scenario — is for the protests to slowly fizzle out and things to slowly return back to normal, only to flare back up again in a few years. Geopolitical headlines and predictions are exciting, but the end result is often quite ‘boring’, aside from the few turning point exceptions.

Beijing seems to agree with my analysis according to Carrie Lam and will indeed play the long game:

‘’Another thing I want to assure you, that is my own feeling the pulse and through discussions, CPG (Central People’s Government) has absolutely no plan to send in the PLA(Army). They are now doing, sort of, acts which I’m sure you’re quite aware of amongst the Communist Party, they’re just quite scared now. Because they know that the price would be too huge to pay. Maybe they don’t care about Hong Kong, but they care about ‘one country, two systems.’ They care about the country’s international profile. It has taken China a long time to build up to that sort of international profile and to have some say, not only being a big economy but a responsible big economy, so to forsake all those positive developments is clearly not on their agenda. But they’re willing to play long, they are willing to play long, so you have no short-term solution. Hong Kong suffers, you lose tourism, economy, you lose your IPOs and so, but you can’t do much about it. But after everything has been settled the country will be there to help with maybe positive measures especially in the Greater Bay Area.’’

The question then becomes if Beijing can keep up the status quo long enough to wear out the protests, before either the mainland pushes for escalation or escalation within the actual protests. After this situation is over, figuring out how to eventually integrate Hong Kong into China proper will also be a difficult.

Either way, Hong Kong will be worth watching. Be it for the people of Hong Kong, the global economy, or analyizing China.