A forecast increase of $15 a month in electricity costs for householders isn't as high as it sounds, says an energy consulting firm. It's actually higher.

Aegent Energy Advisors Inc. says that by 2011, consumers will typically be paying about $25 a month more for electricity than they do today, an increase of $300 a year.

That's a 26 per cent increase for a typical Toronto household, which now pays just under $100 a month, says Aegent.

At Queen's Park, Energy and Infrastructure Minister Brad Duguid disputed the figure, but did not offer one of his own.

"Those numbers don't appear to be anything near to what I've seen," Duguid told the Star. He pointed out that time-of-use pricing allows consumers to shift power use to lower-priced times of the day.

"But ... we do note that energy costs are on the rise for a variety of reasons," Duguid said.

Toronto Hydro has estimated that several converging tax and price increases could push the typical household's cost of power up about $15 a month, or $180 a year.

But Aegent says a series of high-priced contracts signed with nuclear and renewable electricity generators will add costs by 2011, pushing the yearly increase to about $300.

Its analysis in a newsletter calls increases that consumers have seen to date only "the tip of an approaching iceberg."

Bruce Sharp of Aegent, which advises clients negotiating electricity and natural gas purchases, said consumers need to understand that moving away from coal-fired generation to other forms of power, like renewables, comes with a cost.

"We'd like there to be more transparent, so it's more of an informed decision," he said in an interview.

Aegent agrees with Toronto Hydro that a $15-a-month increase is coming within months, as several increases converge. They include:

Introduction of time-of-use billing. Some customers are already on this system, which charges 9.3 cents a kilowatt hour at peak periods, 4.4 cents at off-peak times such as overnight and weekends, and eight cents in mid-peak periods. (The current price is 5.8 cents to 6.7 cents a kilowatt hour.)

Toronto Hydro's experience with the first 10,000 customers to go on time-of-use rates is that 92 per cent see an increase in their bills, averaging about $2.38 a month.

The new harmonized sales tax. HST will add 8 per cent to everyone's bill starting July 1 – about an $8 a month increase.

Both Ontario Power Generation and Toronto Hydro are seeking increases at the Ontario Energy Board.

Those increases, plus some smaller ones, will total about $15 a month, subject to energy board approval of the rate applications

Aegent then casts its eye into 2011, as a number of generators with a combined capacity of 5,000 megawatts start supplying power at rates considerably higher than the current market rate of about 3.8 cents a kilowatt hour (kwh).

Some additional nuclear generation will get seven cents a kilowatt hour, Aegent estimates. A number of wind developments will come on stream, paid 14 cents a kwh, and some solar power at 44 cents a kwh.

Those prices are higher than what consumers or businesses now pay for the energy portion of the bill. Consumers not on time-of-use rates now pay 5.8 cents a kwh for much of their power, and 6.7 cents if they exceed a threshold of 600 kwh in summer or 1,000 kwh in winter. (Charges for delivering power, debt and administrative fees, roughly double the final price.)

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Duguid said time-of-use rates give consumers a tool to trim their energy costs, if they're willing to shift chores such as laundry to weekend or overnight hours.

Progressive Conservative energy critic John Yakabuski said the $25 a month tally sounded accurate, and blamed the Liberals for prices.

"It does sound realistic but it's unfortunate that so much of this is tied to the energy policies that this government has adopted since it's been elected," said Yakabuski (Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke).