Germany's far-right is rising up, galvanized by Europe's deepening refugee crisis and the country's welcoming stance on immigration.

Last Sunday, the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party placed a surprising third in municipal elections with 13.2% of the vote in the central German state of Hesse.

This Sunday, AfD is poised to turn that momentum into bigger gains when voters go to the polls to elect three new regional parliaments for the German states of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate in the southwest, as well as Saxony-Anhalt in the east.

If it does, that could turn the political tides in Germany hard to the right. In doing so, it could also energize its radical counterparts in other European Union member states who have seen big political gains in recent months.

An election poster of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party that reads "More security for our wives and daughters" hangs in Goeppingen, Germany, March 6, 2016. Image: Daniel Maurer/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images

That has observers, like Judy Dempsey, a nonresident senior associate at Carnegie Europe and editor in chief of its Strategic Europe blog, worried and keeping a close watch on the elections.

Dempsey told Mashable in an interview by phone from Berlin the outcome will be "a kind of barometer" that "will give an indication of support for [Chancellor Angela] Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, and whether the electorate can stomach her immigration policy."

Merkel has been Europe's lead voice on the refugee issue, welcoming some 1.1 million asylum seekers into the country in 2015. But the role has put her squarely in the crosshairs of anti-immigration groups in Germany and beyond.

A protest poster with an image of German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pictured in front of a German national flag during a far-right demonstration in Dresden, eastern Germany, Monday, Feb. 29, 2016. Image: AP Photo/Jens Meyer

Local election results, Dempsey said, don't normally create a pattern for regional or federal elections. But this time, it's different, as almost every part of Germany has been affected by the refugee crisis.

"If AfD gets 11 to 12% of the votes and gets into regional parliaments, that would give them confidence and a boost for national elections next year," when Merkel is up for re-election, Dempsey said.

AfD has already muscled its way into five regional parliaments. Big gains this weekend would make it eight.

'The preachers of hatred'

Frauke Petry, head of the AfD political party, holds flowers she received after she spoke to supporters at a Baden-Wuerttemberg state election campaign gathering on March 7, 2016 in Baden-Baden, Germany. Image: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

AfD was originally founded in 2013 as a protest party to challenge European debt crisis bailouts and the center-right policies of Merkel's CDU.

But over the past year, the party has come out hard against Merkel's immigration stance, which has attracted more radical far-right elements to it that are worried about Germany's changing identity.

AfD's messages traditionally are "cranky and eurosceptic." More recently, they've been xenophobic.

Dempsey said AfD's messages traditionally have been "cranky and eurosceptic." More recently, they've become xenophobic.

Merkel personally has criticized the AfD, telling the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag that it's a "party that does not bring society together and offers no appropriate solutions to problems, but only stokes prejudices and divisions."

German news magazine Der Spiegel had the strongest condemnation of the group, calling AfD "the preachers of hatred" in a cover story last month that featured the image of it leader, Frauke Petry. An angry populist, Petry suggested last month that refugees trying to cross the German border illegally should be shot.

That sort of rhetoric has fueled anti-refugee sentiment and spurred mass demonstrations by radical right-wingers no longer ashamed to be open about their politics. Unsurprisingly, it has also led to a surge in violent attacks on refugees.

Disturbing rhetoric leads to attacks

Firefighters try to extinguish a fire at a former hotel that was under reconstruction to become a home for asylum seekers on Feb. 21, 2016, in Bautzen east of Dresden, eastern Germany. Image: RICO LOEB/AFP/Getty Images

In one recent case, the home of an immigrant family was firebombed. In another incident, attackers opened fire on a refugee home, hitting one man in the leg while he slept.

More than 200 homes of asylum seekers were burned or attacked in 2015.

In all, more than 200 homes of asylum seekers were burned or attacked in 2015, Germany's Zeit Online reported. The Economist said there was a total of 13,846 "right-extremist" crimes in the country last year, some 30% more than in 2014.

Besides AfD, another controversial party appears to be doing relatively well in local elections. In some places where AfD didn't have candidates on the ballot, voters turned to the neo-Nazi National Democratic Party (NPD), AFP reported.

NPD is currently embroiled in a fight with the upper house of Germany's parliament, which argues that the party is racist and antisemitic, and is seeking to have it banned.

Elections could have an effect beyond Germany

French far-right National Front president Marine Le Pen waves to supporters at the end of a political rally ahead of the second round of the French regional elections on December 10, 2015 in Paris, France. Image: Getty Images

The rise of the far-right in Germany, a country where a fascist past still looms large, has not come as a surprise to some, like Anton Shekhovtsov, a visiting fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences and an expert on Europe's far-right parties who has tracked their recent rise.

He told Mashable in written comments that their growth in popularity shows Germany "is no longer functioning as a deterrent against the far right."

"It seems that Germany's mainstream parties can no longer rely on the politics of memory."

"It seems that Germany's mainstream parties can no longer rely on the politics of memory and need to consider seriously the reasons of the rise of the far right and finally start acting to address these causes," Shekhovtsov added.

And the results of Sunday's election in Germany could have big ramifications for greater Europe, Dempsey says.

Far-right populism is also growing in Europe, especially in Austria, Denmark, France, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and the Netherlands, as well as Sweden which, like Germany, has shifted from more liberal asylum policies at the start of the refugee crisis last year to stricter rules.

A big win for AfD on Sunday could further embolden far-right groups around the continent.

"What we are seeing is the rejection of the European idea," Dempsey said. "What we are seeing in Europe … is a return to nationalist and socialist policies."

Have something to add to this story? Share it in the comments.