In my previous post, I used a simple algorithm that used only week 1’s data to forecast week 2 results. I had no expectations for these projections, but I would like to see how this model improves as the season progresses. Week 2 was a fantasy forecaster’s nightmare, with numerous big name injuries. Last week, I set my rankings early Thursday morning, and as a result they didn’t take into account some obvious scratches (eg Adrian Peterson, Jordan Cameron, Jordan Reed…). Last Thursday evening, I recorded FantasyPros ECR for all positions, so I could use them for comparison with my rankings. With week 2 in the books, here is a comparison of the performance of my rankings vs. FantasyPros. Remember, my rankings are based on just one week of data and is a purely mathematical analysis.

Start/Sit % is the percentage of all unique pairwise comparison combinations that can be made for a given position. The percentage is the number of times where the correct call is made (or there is no difference due to a tie in the ranking) divided by the total unique pairs. For this the top 32 QBs, DEFs, and Ks were compared (496 pairs each), the top 50 TEs were compared (1225 pairs), and the top 97 WRs and RBs (4656 pairs). The average pt dv. is the average absolute difference between my projected points and the actual points scored (standard scoring). The ave rank dev. is the average absolute difference between the predicted and actual ranks. Averages are over the same number of players at each position as the start/sit statistic.

As expected, my algorithm was less accurate than FantasyPros (FP). The model was particularly bad at predicting DEF with just one games worth of data for each team. FantasyPros was really good with RB and TE. I’m hoping to bring my model at least up to these levels. though I’m clearly not there yet. That said, there were some rankings that the model got correct…even a blind squirrel finds a nut from time to time. Here’s a summary of the best and worst calls that the model made in week 2 at each position (I’ve excluded calls that were suspension/injury related):

Quarterback

Worst:

1. Brian Hoyer (ranked 1st, FP ranked 28th, actual rank 26th): This was largely an artifact of the huge game the Matt Ryan put up in week 1, making NO look like an opponent that lets QBs go crazy on them.

2. Cam Newton (not ranked, FP ranked 13th, actual rank 6th): This was due to the absence of Cam in week 1. Going forward, if I know that a replacement will be in or a starter is coming back, I will weigh their projection accordingly.

3. Philip Rivers (ranked 28th, FP ranked 21st, actual rank 3rd): This is an instance where everyone got it wrong. Same could be said of Derek Carr, and to some extent Jay Cutler, & Jake Locker.

4. Aaron Rodgers (ranked 19th, FP ranked 2nd, actual rank 1st): With GB playing the Jets in week 2 and the Jets playing OAK in week 1, the model thought the Jets were the ’85 bears. Along with a lackluster performance by Rodgers in week 1, this led to an underestimation of Rodger’s week 2 performance.

Best:

1. Matt Stafford (ranked 16th, FP ranked 7th, actual rank 16th): Carolina is a legit defense.

2. Geno Smith (ranked 8th, FP ranked 22nd, actual rank 8th): GB may be an exploitable D this year.

3. Chad Henne (ranked 24th, FP ranked 25th, actual rank 24th): Nailed it! ….but so did FP.

4. Tony Romo (ranked 26th, FP ranked 14th, actual rank 27th): The analysts see how much talent there is on the offensive side of the ball for Dallas and expect Romo to be better than he’s been playing. Cold calculations tell a different story.

Wide Receiver

Worst:

1. Dez Bryant (ranked 84th, FP ranked 4th, actual rank 6th): Dez had a week showing in week 1. This will smooth out as his weekly average rises.

2. Marques Colston (ranked 23rd, FP ranked 28th, actual rank tied 113th (o pts)): No one expected a goose egg from Colston. Broke an 86 game streak where Colston has caught at least one pass.

3. Donnie Avery (ranked 2nd, FP ranked 71st, actual rank 83rd): Alex Smith had a dismal performance this week and with Bowe back, Avery lost targets.

4. Chris Owusu (ranked 4th, FP ranked 133rd, actual rank tied 113th (0 pts)): TD dependence in week 1 and seemingly decent matchup in STL in week 2 spells vastly overestimated value.

Best:

1. Calvin Johnson (ranked 25th, FP ranked 2nd, actual rank 21st): With Johnson outside of the top 20, I’m sure this looked like a crazy ranking. Seemed to work out here. Carolina seems to be a legit defense.

2. Vincent Jackson (ranked 40th, FP ranked 13th, actual rank 41st): VJax continued to under perform. I would be a little worried if I owned him.

3. Brian Quick (ranked 26th, FP ranked 52nd, actual rank 25th): Continued to perform well in week 2. Might be worth an add.

4. Riley Cooper (ranked 85th, FP ranked 46th, actual rank 94th): This is a case where draft expectations are lingering and not being met. Foles aired it out a bit this week. Cooper only had 3 targets. Might be worth dropping.

Running Back

Worst:

1. DeMarco Murray (ranked 84th, FP ranked 6th, actual rank 5th): To the model, DAL week 2 matchup vs. TEN looked formidable. In week 1, TEN had held Jamaal Charles to just 3.4 fantasy points.

2. Bernard Pierce (ranked 97th, FP ranked 34th, actual rank tied 23rd): With Pierce getting benched in week 1, his fantasy point “average” in the model suffered. A more nuanced approach, such as using predicted touches and average fantasy points per touch, might be a way of avoiding these errors.

3.Stepfan Taylor (ranked 25th, FP ranked 83rd, actual rank 87th): The pass catching John Kuhn of Arizona? Low volume and occasional TD vulture-ocity = poor predictability.

4. Carlos Hyde (ranked 8th, FP ranked 39th, actual rank 80th): Gore looked good so Hyde took a back seat. FantasyPros wasn’t terribly accurate on this one either.

Best:

1. Giovani Bernard (ranked 2nd, FP ranked 8th, actual rank 2nd): spot on.

2. Mark Ingram (ranked 9th, FP ranked 26th, actual rank 9th): A case of skeptical analysts. Ingram did well in week 1, but historically NO uses a multi-headed monster at RB. This might have finally been Ingram’s year. Might have been worth a pick-up if it weren’t for his injury. Might be worth a stash for when he comes back.

3. Fred Jackson (ranked 44th, FP ranked 28th, actual rank 41st): This was probably a fluke, since my Spiller ranking (28th) was off.

4. LeVeon Bell (ranked 19th, FP ranked 10th, actual rank 21st): Bell had a great game in week 1. Week 2’s outing was mediocre. BAL might have a respectable run D.

Tight End

Worst:

1. Jimmy Graham (ranked 34th, FP ranked 1st, actual rank 2nd): In week 1, NO’s week 2 opponent (CLE) faced PIT. Heath Miller put up only 2.6 pts in that game. (He only had 1.5 in week 2 against BAL): a case of unrepresentative averages.

2. Levine Toilolo (ranked 7th, FP ranked 29th, actual rank 40th): Used a fair amount in week 1, lost in the shuffle in week 2. CIN is a stout defense, so he may bounce back with Ryan.

3. Antonio Gates (ranked 39th, FP ranked 16th, actual rank 1st): Unfortunately for Ladarius Green, Gates has rediscovered his mojo. Came as a surprise to the model and most analysts alike. Same can be said of Owen Daniels, who pissed off Pitta owners.

4. Martellus Bennett (ranked 41st, FP ranked 10th, actual rank 8th): Witten had a horrible showing against SF in week 1, so the model assumed Bennett would be just as bad. More data will improve this.

Best:

1. Delanie Walker (ranked 4th, FP ranked 12th, actual rank 3rd): model saw a juicy matchup for TE in DAL. DAL obliged.

2. Larry Donnell (ranked 9th, FP ranked 18th, actual rank 10th): Donnell had a solid week 1. He followed it up n week 2 with a nearly identical fantasy point total. Might be a source of steady, if not Graham-like, production. Might be worth a grab if your hurting at tight end or looking for consistency.

3. Niles Paul (ranked 2nd, FP ranked 22nd, actual rank 4th): Came in for Jordan Reed in week 1 and put up a decent stat line. Jacksonville gave up 15.2 pts to tight ends in week 1. As long as Reed is out, Paul is a must own.

4. Julius Thomas (ranked 6h, FP ranked 2nd, actual rank 7th): Not sure why the model worked so well here. May be another fluke.

Defense

Worst:

1. New England (ranked 30th, FP ranked 6th, actual rank 1st): Model performed really poorly on the extremes this week. Not surprising with only 1 weeks-worth of data.

2. Jacksonville (ranked 1st, FP ranked 21st, actual rank tied 31st): The model loved the matchup with WAS and JAX was servicable in week 1.

Best:

1. Washington (ranked 5th, FP ranked 19th, actual rank 4th): Not sure why.

2. Seattle (ranked 24th, FP ranked 1st, actual rank 28th): Again, expectations of draft value come into play on the FantasyPros side.

Kickers

Worst:

1. Dan Bailey (ranked 26th, FP ranked 8th, actual rank 1st): Poor week 1 performance as the Cowboys offense couldn’t get off the ground.

2. Blair Walsh (ranked 4th, FP ranked 10th, actual rank tied 31st): MIN couldn’t stop turning the ball over.

Best:

1. Kai Forbath (ranked 9th, FP ranked 21st, actual rank tied 10th): Analysts didn’t expect much from Washington’s offense

2. Matt Bryant (ranked 25th, FP ranked 6th, actual rank tied 22nd): If Bryant was the top K in week 1, he’s gotta be in the top 10 in week 2. Enter CIN’s D. Nope.

My model has another week of data. Look for my Week 3 rankings on Thursday morning.