Bengals @ Chiefs SNF Preview and Prediction

0-10. That is the Cincinnati Bengals record on Sunday Night Football including playoff games since 2006. When the Bengals head to Kansas City this weekend to play Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, they will look to end that drought. Both the Bengals and the Chiefs are coming off devastating losses and will each be looking to bounce back. The Bengals took the lead over the Steelers with a minute and eighteen seconds left in Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday, just to give up a game-winning touchdown to Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown with ten seconds left on the clock to fall to 4-2. The Chiefs, after rolling to a 5-0 start, came back from a double digit deficit against the Patriots just to lose on a last second field goal, suffering their first loss of the season and falling to 5-1. Both of these teams are gonna be angry and looking for a win in ArrowHead Stadium, Sunday night on NBC, 8:20 PM EST.

This game between the Bengals and Chiefs has all the makings of a shootout. Both defenses have been below average this season. The Bengals have given up 409.2 offensive yards per game and 26.3 points per game while the Chiefs have given up 468.2 yards per game (the most in the NFL) and 28.7 points per game. On offense, the Bengals have gained 352.2 yards per game and scored 29 points per game while the Chiefs are averaging 418.5 yards per game and scoring 35.8 points per game, which is second most in the NFL. A much easier way to say all this would be to say that these teams each have had good offenses and bad defenses to start the season.

In addition to this, both defenses are banged up. Against Pittsburgh, the Bengals secondary got very beat up, with pretty much every starter having to leave the field at one point or another. This Cincinnati secondary that has already given up a lot of yards while healthy may very well be without corner Darqueze Dennard and safety Shawn Williams, Tony McRae and Clayton Fejedelem will be expected to step up in their places if they are not able to suit up on Sunday night. In addition to their secondary being banged up, LB Nick Vigil is expected to be out for a month with a sprained MCL, weakening what already looked to be the Bengals weakest link, the LB corps. Kansas City has their fair share of injuries too. Eric Berry has yet to play a game this season as he seeks to recover from a heel injury and his backup, Eric Murray, missed the Chiefs-Patriots game on Sunday night. If neither of those two are good to go the Bengals are gonna see a lot of a familiar face in Josh Shaw, which will be a big hole for an already weak secondary. In addition to Berry and Murray, Justin Houston missed the Patriots game, if he were not able to play against the Bengals it would be very helpful to the subpar Bengals offensive line. With all these injuries to two already weak defenses, these two powerful offenses should be able to score fast and score often.

The five keys to a victory for the Bengals this week will be to lean on the run, get to the quarterback, cover tight Travis Kelce, get off the field on third down, and hope that John Ross can come back from his groin injury. Against the Steelers, Joe Mixon averaged 5.8 yards per carry, but only got 11 carries. If the Bengals want to win on Sunday, they can’t afford to forget about the run again, especially against a defense giving up 127.8 yards per game on the ground. In their loss on Sunday, the Bengals didn’t sack Ben Roethlisberger once. A quarterback as dangerous as Patrick Mahomes can’t be given time in the pocket, the Bengals will have to get to the second year signal caller and make sure he isn’t able to escape the pressure and throw on the run. In years past the Bengals have had trouble covering tight ends, this year is no different. Against the Steelers, Vance McDonald and Jesse James combined for 12 catches and 94 yards. It just seems like tight ends are wide open for a first down every time the Bengals need a stop this year, against a top 3 tight end like Travis Kelce, this will need to be corrected. Six games into the year, the Bengals have given up the second highest rate of third down conversion in the league, Cincinnati’s opponents have been able to convert on a pathetic 53.41% of third downs this season. Against such a high powered offense, it will be important to get off the field when taking the Chiefs to third down. Finally, John Ross’ health is much more important than fans realize. When Ross is on the field it opens up the offense and helps get A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and the tight ends open. The threat of Ross will make it much easier on Andy Dalton and the offense to keep up with the Chiefs’ scoring. If the Bengals can take advantage of these five things, they should be able to beat the Chiefs and improve to 5-2.

The five keys to winning for the Chiefs will be not to turn the ball over, contain the Bengals dangerous duo of receivers, keep the Bengals out of nickel formation, feed Travis Kelce, and attack the Bengals run defense. The Chiefs need to be careful not to turn the ball over, as turnovers have won the Bengals two games. The Bengals beat the Colts and Dolphins with a combined three defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter of both games. If the Chiefs want to win, they have to protect the ball. The Chiefs secondary has been weak this year, but if they want to win they’re gonna have to step up and contain A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. Green and Boyd are both on pace for 1,000+ yards and 10+ touchdowns. The Bengals will be sure to target these two a lot and the Chiefs are gonna need to keep their impacts to a minimum. Carl Lawson is arguably the most skilled pass rusher on the Bengals defensive line, perplexingly, the Bengals haven’t been giving him a majority of snaps. Why would the Bengals keep their best pass rusher off the field, you ask? Because they tend to only use him in the nickel formation, teams are taking advantage of that and making sure they don’t line up in formations that would require nickel defense. When they aren’t in nickel formation, the Bengals also tend to have a run stuffing nose tackle like Andrew Billings or Josh Tupou on the field, who are not huge threats to rush the passer. As stated in the Bengals’ keys to victory, the Bengals are bad against tight ends. Travis Kelce is an elite tight end. The Chiefs need to target Kelce often if they want to move the chains. The Bengals have a weak group of linebackers in coverage and this will make it easy to get Kelce the ball. The Chiefs’ final key to victory is about the Bengals’ linebackers again, they need to attack the Bengals’ weak run defense. In the Bengals’ two losses so far in 2018, they have given up an average of 171 yards. The Chiefs have two good running backs in Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware. The Bengals have been weak at linebacker all season, and although Vontaze Burfict’s return helps, now that Nick Vigil is out, Hardy Nickerson Jr. and Jordan Evans are gonna see the field more. The Chiefs need to attack them in the running game. If the Chiefs can do these five things, they should win the game and improve to 6-1.

This is a game between two high powered, angry teams who are both currently sitting atop the AFC. The winner will hold the 1st seed in the AFC through seven weeks of the season and the loser will fall down to Earth and begin to get competition for the top of their division from the Ravens, Steelers, and Chargers. I expect this to be a shootout, a nail-biter, and I see it coming down to who has the ball last, similar to the Bengals win over the Falcons or the Chiefs loss to the Patriots. I think it could go either way, but I’m going with the home team here. ArrowHead Stadium is one of, if not the loudest stadium in the NFL, and I see the crowd giving Kansas City the slight edge. While I wouldn’t sleep on the Bengals in this one, I say the Chiefs pull it out and improve to 6-1.

FINAL PREDICTION:

Bengals 37

Chiefs 38



