Jade Helm 15 is a US military training exercise taking place across seven states.



Starting on 15 July and running to 15 September, 1,200 troops will perform drills that could be used in warfare, including covert surveillance. The exercises will take place across private and public land, in states across the south-west.

The problem with all this is that there are some people out there who think Jade Helm 15 isn’t a training exercise at all. Who believe it is something far more sinister. Who believe it is nothing less than a full-blown invasion and occupation of Texas, Arizona, and the other states where the exercises will take place.



What the conspiracy theorists believe

This varies, but the origin of the Jade Helm outcry seems to stem from a document posted on Scribd in March. It outlined some of the training exercises and contained a map that labelled parts of certain states, including Texas, Arizona and Utah, as “hostile”. Noted radio host Alex Jones has covered the Jade Helm rumours intricately on his Infowars show and appears to be one of those who believe the exercise is a military takeover.



“This is just a cover for deploying the military on the streets,” Jones said. “I’ve hardly ever heard of something joint like this unless they’re planning an invasion.”



Fears have also been stoked by a public letter allegedly written by a Texas Ranger to The Common Sense Show. The letter has been shared widely and is treated with huge respect by conspiracy theorists. The anonymous Texas Ranger, who provided no evidence that he is a Texas Ranger, alleged that “there are trains moving throughout Texas that have shackles inside some of the cars”, although he added that he has “not personally seen them”.



This has given rise to speculation that the trains could be used to transport US citizens to Fema detention camps.



Other rumours, documented by Talking Points Memo, include that the military is planning to eliminate citizens during the two-month period and that the military has occupied several vacant Walmarts and could use them as prisons.



The people egging them on

The theories have been lent credence by some serious figures. Texas’s governor, Greg Abbott, has even deployed the state guard to monitor the exercise.



“It is important that Texans know their safety, constitutional rights, private property rights and civil liberties will not be infringed upon,” Abbott said when announcing the move.



Meanwhile, Texas senator Ted Cruz has “reached out to the Pentagon” over the exercise.



Oh, and the Walker, Texas Ranger actor and martial artist Chuck Norris is also involved. He wrote a column on rightwing website WND voicing his own fears.



“The US government says, ‘It’s just a training exercise,’” said Norris, who appeared as Texas Ranger JJ McQuade in the 1983 film Lone Wolf McQuade. “But I’m not sure the term ‘just’ has any reference to reality when the government uses it.”



What they plan to do

Plans vary between groups and individuals. The most visible, and vocal, activists are led by Pete Lanteri, an ex-marine based in Arizona. Lanteri has organised surveillance groups in different locations. “People will report what they see and we will release what they see to everyone,” he told the Guardian. Lanteri’s group does not believe the federal government is trying to implement martial law, however, and he has distanced himself from the more extreme anti-Jade Helmers.



“Once I saw the freaking nutjobs coming out of the woodwork I was spending half my day discrediting what they were posting,” Lanteri told the Houston Chronicle on Monday. “No nutjobs will be put in the field.”



Suspicious Texas residents have already been filming and photographing the movement of military vehicles.



Civilian monitoring of military ‘movement’ in Texas.

There are even reports of some people planning to arm themselves to guard against the impending takeover, although it is difficult to find people willing to discuss this openly.



I know this guy, but I'm not with his group. I will be recording activities AND I will be armed. I also use drones! http://t.co/KYwolnBMmv — Scruffy Face (@Scruffy_Face_1) July 14, 2015

In 2014 Nevadan Cliven Bundy made national headlines when he squared off against federal agents, along with an armed militia. The Bureau of Land Management had attempted to seize Bundy’s cattle to cover unpaid grazing fees.

The standoff made Bundy a hero for rightwingers. Given the US’s history of people arming themselves against the government, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that it could happen again.

What the people in charge say

That fears of a full-blown military occupation of Texas and other states and the imprisonment of residents without trial in Walmarts or elsewhere are unfounded.

“Jade Helm is a long-planned and coordinated exercise,” Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steve Warren said. “We are not taking over anything.”



The US army, meanwhile, has insisted that the assignment of “hostile areas” is part of the training. In a statement, the US army said that the nine states selected – which also include New Mexico, Mississippi, Louisiana and Florida – have been chosen because the “diverse terrain in these states” replicates areas that troops could find themselves in overseas.



The exercise is “routine training”, the army says, and the most noticeable effect on the public will be an increase in traffic and noise. It will enable US army special operations command to “further develop tactics, techniques and procedures for emerging concepts in Special Operations warfare”.

• This article was amended on 16 July 2015. An earlier version said Cliven Bundy was Texan.