UW study touts Sodo plan over KeyArena renovation

Sodo arena renderings Sodo arena renderings Photo: Via Seattle DPD/360 Architects Photo: Via Seattle DPD/360 Architects Image 1 of / 68 Caption Close UW study touts Sodo plan over KeyArena renovation 1 / 68 Back to Gallery

A University of Washington study released Monday argues that a Sodo arena would bring in more revenue than a redeveloped KeyArena.

The analysis, headed by UW public finance professor Justin Marlowe, was commissioned May 19 by Sodo project backer Chris Hansen. This is not the first time Marlowe and Hansen have worked together. The professor was a part of King County's independent expert team that helped shape the 2012 Memorandum of Understanding between the county, the city of Seattle and the Sodo arena group.

Three graduate students worked under Marlowe on the study, and they went out of their way to head off claims of bias.

"From the outset (the Sodo group) insisted on an independent, fair, and transparent analysis," the report read. "They did not attempt to influence our methods or findings. Our payment for this project is not in any way contingent on our findings."

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The UW analysis was based on more than 100 "unique assumptions that drive estimated tax collections," including ticket prices, concession sales and parking.

Findings included a claim that a Sodo arena would generate much more revenue for the city. Adjusting for inflation, the UW researchers pegged Sodo's contributions to the City General Fund at $103 million over 35 years, versus just $34 million from KeyArena. In a more aggressive scenario, the Sodo arena generated around $111 million, while KeyArena contributed around $47 million.

The UW study argued that each proposal would result in about $200 million in tax breaks.

Perhaps the most crucial claim in the study is that a Sodo arena would generate around $100 in property taxes that would go to Seattle Public Schools. Because it's a public building, KeyArena would not be assessed property taxes.

"We hope this analysis offers city decision-makers an essential data point as they consider the trade-offs that surround both proposals," the study read. "Specifically, our model suggests Sodo will contribute $103 million to the City General Fund, and (prospective KeyArena redeveloper Oak View Group) will contribute $34 million, a difference of around $68 million.

"Is that $68 million difference – or perhaps as much as $168 million including property taxes from other local jurisdictions – enough to consider an alternative development path for KeyArena?"

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The analysis comes two months before the deadline for a Memorandum of Understanding between Oak View Group (OVG) and the city, so Marlowe's team was working with OVG's redevelopment proposal, not a binding, negotiated agreement.

Researchers said that city officials declined to participate in the study.

Seattlepi.com reporter Stephen Cohen can be reached at 206-448-8313 or stephencohen@seattlepi.com. Follow Stephen on Twitter at @scohenPI.