This draft is weird.

That's the first thing I would like to note in all of this, and the first thing I would like to be noted in the future when anybody might happen across these rankings with eyes full of hindsight.

All drafts are weird, but this one is especially weird, I promise. There is just one truth that has remained self-evident throughout the entire process: Ben Simmons is the No. 1 guy (and this class was decidedly not created equal).

Now, far be it from me to excuse away my markedly stupefying rankings of some players with this reasoning, but at least understand that I am not exactly vain with regard to my rankings. I am simply warning you beforehand - it's an inexact science. I approach every ranking (and reapproach it dozens of times) objectively and with a clean slate in my mind--as if I have never written a word about any of them and as though I am going through the exercise for the first time ever--every time.

This {excuse} also works well because this piece is coming from me after a near-three-month absence from LibertyBallers, and one almost as long from Twitter (the NBA Draft community as an entirety): I am coming into the exercise with a rejuvenated mindset.

Now, without any more idle delay, allow me to get right to it:

1. Ben Simmons - PG/PF, LSU

Ben Simmons is one of the best three draft prospects since 2008, and I would be happy to make the argument that he is the best of the bunch - his competition being Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Davis. (A back+foot stress-fractured Joel Embiid doesn't quite eek into that tier.) And Simmons is the only one of the three who is a primary ball-handler on the NBA level - which is almost a prerequisite to being a top-five, transcendental player in the NBA.

Simmons, simply, is a basketball savant at age 19. I should not really have to say more than that, but, alas, tomfoolery is alive and well. Ben Simmons looks dangerously close to my personal idea of 'the perfect NBA prospect' - a 1) very tall (but not too tall that it diminishes his athleticism), 2) extremely athletic 3) primary ball-handler who 4) shows excellently in every imagination of 'basketball IQ' conceivable, 5) sees the floor and delivers passes on the level of tippity-top point-guard prospects, 6) gets to the rim and 7) to the free-throw line truly at will, 8) defends excellently up through the 4 and 5 positions, and, finally, 9) rebounds the shit out of the ball.

Yes, the arbitrary list is missing [at least] a tenth piece: the ability to shoot from 3-point range... otherwise known as the ability which sees the most regular improvement as well as the ability which sees the most drastic change from players in their NBA careers.

In order to reinforce my point: If you laid out these ten traits for me and told me that I could pick nine for my near-perfect NBA prospect, 3-point shooting would probably be my first instinct as the one to leave off of my guy (solely due to its proneness to improve in the NBA).

So Ben Simmons, who also has a mind-numbing number of positive reinforcing qualities (I call them green flags) in his profile on top of the base which by itself looks like a No. 1 prospect, is the number one guy. (To give a very quick example of a green flag.)

But leave it to the most reputable NBA Draft source on the planet, teamed up with the most popular NBA reporter on the planet, to make it their mission to completely assassinate Simmons' character, to indefensibly disparage the most talented basketball prospect since 2007 and to make a mockery of everyone involved.

2. Brandon Ingram - SF, Duke

Brandon Ingram will need to be 95% of Kawhi Leonard to be a top-five player in the NBA. In other words, he will need to become unreasonably good on defense (quite unlikely) while also being a top offensive wing in the league, or he will need to be far better than Paul George on offense (exceedingly unlikely) and still be a top defensive wing in the league.

He is the best NBA wing prospect of the last five years and the odds are still stacked ridiculously against him to reach the level of a team-carrying transcendental player. Ingram can easily be a top-20, even top-10 player - and I would go so far as to bet on that outcome coming to fruition - but he's much, much closer to the level of everybody else than he is to Simmons'.

The main problems facing Ingram are things for which he is not at fault whatsoever: that he is not a primary initiator on offense and he does not provide big-man defense. He is, in large part, as good as he can be in his own skin. The problem is that you simply cannot project anyone to be as good as Kawhi Leonard on defense, which is a virtual necessity in being a top-five NBA player as a wing who isn't his team's primary ball-handler.

You're beginning to see why Ben Simmons is so special.

Back to Ingram, to explain why he's the best pure wing prospect of the past (at least) five years: he is the third-youngest guy in his draft, he is 6'9" with condor-esque arms, he has incredibly smooth and deceptively explosive athleticism, he can shoot well off the catch and off the dribble, he shows promising signs on defense, he sees the floor well and passes well for his position, and he's capable of taking defenders off the dribble.

IF something roughly unprojectable happens with Ingram, like he becomes a very high-usage player on offense who can initiate for his team, or he becomes the clear best perimeter defender in the league, then his path to being a top-five player would be much more clear. Right now, however, it remains vague at best - nearly impossible at worst.

3. Dragan Bender - PF/C, Maccabi Tel Aviv

The youngest player in the draft as well as one of the toolsiest, it is easy to rank Bender highly, even with little information - somewhat similar to Dante Exum and Kristaps Porzingis of past drafts.

However, from the info we have, he appears to be a serious defensive player potentially capable of guarding out to the perimeter as well as protecting the rim and providing help defense on the interior. He also looks like a very smart offensive player with good awareness, good passing ability and a burgeoning ability to hit shots from 3-point range.

Bender's chances at ever becoming a top-5 player basically depend on how good he gets in his own skin. He looks a whole lot like a 7'1" version of a young Draymond Green, and Green is basically as good as he possibly can be. So perhaps having 6 to 7 inches of height on Green will mean a lot for Bender's chances of being a transcendent, team-carrying player. But he would, in essence, as it appears to me, need to be better than Draymond Green with virtually the same style of play to ever have hope of being that kind of player in the NBA. Though I suppose there is some chance he makes an unprojectable leap in his ability to create for himself and totally changes the projection for the ceiling on his offense in the NBA.

4. Denzel Valentine - SG, Michigan State

Valentine has a fucking incredible profile. It's amazing that he's as generally ignored as he is.

This season, he posted the second-highest assist rate in the NCAA and also shot over 44% from 3 on very high volume. He also gathered defensive rebounds (from the wing position on his team) at over a 20% rate, and, generally unseen by stats, possesses a keen intelligence for team-defense that is present in very few prospects. AND to boot, he has no physical limitations at 6'6" with a 6'10" wingspan - though he does lack explosiveness, to be sure.

Valentine's passing is absolutely incredible. The fact that he also shoots super well and will likely defend on the NBA level--possibly even very well, similar to how Khris Middleton succeeds--and is still not seen as a top-10 player in his class is astonishing. So here's my bold stand on him, slotting him #4.

There is, virtually speaking, no chance that Valentine becomes a transcendent top-five player in the NBA. But there is also no virtual chance that anyone else in the draft does. Ben Simmons has about a 40 to 75 percent shot, and then Brandon Ingram and Dragan Bender combined may have a 5 percent shot. The rest of the class combined may have a 1 to 2 percent shot.

However, Valentine can totally be a top-10 to 20 player in the league, just like anyone may be. And I think his shot at getting there is very high - higher than probably anyone else left in the draft after Dragan Bender - and his floor for production is phenomenally high.

5. Timothe Luwawu - SF/SG, Mega Leks

Luwawu may make up the majority of that "1 to 2 percent" of being a transcendent top-five player that the rest of this class has, at least in my mind. If absolutely every excuse you could make for him so far turns out to be true and then everything goes right once he gets into the NBA, then he could get there. But it almost feels silly to talk about, simply because it never happens. It did in 2011, but, unfortunately, the Spurs won't be the team drafting Luwawu.

However, as with Valentine and a bunch of others, Luwawu can totally be on the tier below that level. A big, really athletic wing who shoots 3-pointers, passes well, slashes well, defends well and has Russell Westbrookian flashes when finishing can absolutely turn out to be a top-10 to 20 player in the NBA.

6. Chinanu Onuaku - C, Louisville

Onuaku is wonderful. A sophomore who is younger than many many freshmen this year and the only center who I am positive will legitimately defend well in the NBA in this whole class.

He has really good understanding of defending in a team concept, playing help defense, and that's most of what he did as the youngest freshman-not-named-Sviatoslav in college last year. This year, however, he stepped way the fuck up and rebounded like crazy, started scoring on way more of his touches and, perhaps most importantly, developed a sneakily super good trait in his passing.

Onuaku is only 6'10" with a 7'2" wingspan, but I don't think it really matters. He's an NBA center and I would easily bet on him to succeed with flying colors over the next decade-plus of the NBA.

7. Brice Johnson - PF, North Carolina

Brice Johnson is crazy good. He's a godly rebounder, he's an excellent defender, he's an amazing finisher, he's the best transition big man in the class, and he even has multiple reasons for hope toward him developing a jump-shot in the NBA. (He has shot 44 to 48 percent on 2-point jumpers over the past three years, and he upped his free-throw percentage to 78 this season.)

And if he does that, if he develops a functional 3-point shot, then there is virtually no limit to his goodness. Of course, he won't be a top-five guy in the league. But he could be anywhere on that next tier, undoubtedly.

Even without a shot, in the future NBA, Brice could become a 4 (who also spots time at 5) who truly excels at his strengths and whose flaws aren't easily exposed. The type of player who is a top-15 to 25 guy in the right system.

8. Wade Baldwin - PG, Vanderbilt

This is mostly an upside ranking, because Baldwin's downside is quite literally a guy who won't play much at all in the NBA. But it's also a possibility that the defensive flashes become more frequent, that he becomes more confident shooting the ball often, that his finishing improves, that his foul-drawing is legit and that his passing is totally swell for an NBA point guard.

If that all happened to be the case, then this ranking is too low and Baldwin is a likely top-10 player in the NBA. I also don't think Baldwin can be more than low-end top-25 player or so from the 2-guard position, which is why I solely list him as a point guard. I don't really have first-round interest in Wade Baldwin, Shooting Guard. I do, however, have strong top-10 interest in Wade Baldwin, Point Guard.

9. Isaia Cordinier - SG, Denain

This foreign class is pretty awesome.

Cordinier is another attractive 3+D+stuff guy, who, like Luwawu, also hails from the lovely land of France. Though he hasn't played above the B-level league yet, he is a maximum-effort player who simply seems as though he is bound to succeed. He shot super well this year, passed fairly well, defended very well (super active doing stuff), and has ridiculous athleticism on a solid frame (6'5", 6'8" arms).

I would be shocked if Cordinier wasn't something in the NBA, a solid player, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he ended up among the best 25 or so players in the league.

10. OG Anunoby - SF/PF, Indiana

Anunoby is an incredible defensive stud and one of the youngest guys in the class. He may not declare, but if he does, I would absolutely not hesitate to pick him in the top-10. OG also has a 6'8", 215, 7'6" (!) wingspan frame - +10-inch ratio of height to wingspan would be tops in the NBA.

The hope, of course, would be that he develops a shot once he gets into the league and slowly develops as a creator. Where he eventually lands on the Roberson-MKG-Crowder-Kawhi scale is pretty much entirely up to chance. He has some indicators that he may have shooting potential - 45% on 29 3-point attempts - but he also shot a ridiculously low 48% on his 42 free-throw attempts. And his lowly 7% assist rate is pretty awful.

In any case, his potential is pretty sky-high and he is exactly the type of player I would love to hang my hat on coming out of any draft outside of the top-five picks. If anyone from this draft becomes Kawhi/Draymond-esque in their ability to be the focal point of a league-leading defense despite not being a center, then I would put almost all of that stock into Anunoby. (Though, again, I don't imagine OG will be declaring. But until he officially withdraws, he will be here.)

11. Kris Dunn - PG, Providence

More defense, more upside rankings. Dunn is older and has issues, but if he progresses toward fixing them - or they are negated by a team system - then his ceiling is super high. As it is, he probably will not shoot well and he almost certainly will deal with bad turnover issues. He will also be among the best defenders of the PG position in the league and he presents good passing ability.



I imagine he will look something like Elfrid Payton (who is the same age as Dunn) in the NBA, but, like Payton, he presents an unlikely but reachable ceiling in the NBA if he can progress on his flaws. It's worth noting, too, that Dunn projects as a slightly better 3-point shooter, a certainly better free-throw shooter and likely a better defender.

12. Dedric Lawson - PF/SF, Memphis

Lawson is the second-youngest player in the class and a big, long combo-forward with upside across the board. He rebounds like crazy, he collects defensive stats well, he shot 35% from 3 this year (over 40% over the last few months), he handled a 28% usage rate this year and ended with a higher assist rate than turnover rate ... but I am not sure that any one of these traits will be NBA-caliber soon (well, besides the rebounding).

However, all of his attributes could all legitimately be NBA-caliber as soon as next season, and he could continue to develop into a do-everything star in time. Certainly, at least, he could be a 3-and-D dynamo within a couple of seasons.

13. Caris LeVert - SG/SF, Michigan

LeVert is a young senior and he has put up some eye-popping numbers throughout his career; the reason he isn't higher is because I do not trust him to defend in the NBA at all - though, he is a slinky-athletic 6'7" with a 7'1" wingspan, and he will likely be defending 2-guards much of the time, so he may end up at least an above-average defender in the right system...

In which case, this ranking is much too low. It is a given that LeVert will shoot 3's in the NBA, probably exceedingly well, and he has excellent creation ability that will likely be utilized in a secondary ball-handling role from day one. So if he defends too, then LeVert will be a really, really good player.

This lower ranking is also easier to make with LeVert's injury problems. Even if he turns out a good to great player, if he either is like Bradley Beal and almost never plays or simply has his career ended by injuries, then it would be called slightly foreseeable and ranking him high would look foolish in hindsight.

14. Jonathan Jeanne - C, Le Mans

Players who stand 7'2" with 7'7" wingspans and possibly decent basketball skills at under 20 years old don't come along too often. Jeanne blocks shots like crazy and might even have shooting ability - and he is at a massive advantage, which usually helps a whole lot. This is a blind ranking, it could appear too low or too high very easily, but it feels about right.

15. Pascal Siakam - PF, New Mexico State

Siakam is a hell of an athlete at 6'9" and a hound of a defensive player and rebounder; he also is a good ball-mover who doesn't waste possessions. He looks good shooting the ball, but he certainly seems unconfident in doing it. His primary pathways to big success are like Brice Johnson's - develop his shot, become confident in it, and probably be a top-20 player in the league, or become so good in his areas of strength and be lucky enough to play in a system that utilizes him well and covers up his flaws, and also end up a top-20ish impact player in the league.

16. Ivan Rabb - C, California

Rabb is an interesting case, because much of the reason that many people are a fan of his are due to loose assumptions - assuming that his interior defense is legit (that his shot-blocking numbers isn't a flag), assuming that his shot has real potential, assuming that his lowly passing numbers aren't a red flag on his already questionable feel/intelligence.

What Rabb does present is pretty good rebounding ability and awesome finishing ability on a good, long-armed and athletic frame. And that, combined with the possibility that those assumptions are more than just hypothetical, comes together to form a solidly attractive prospect - even if his abilities are probably overstated by most.

17. Robert Carter - PF/C, Maryland

Robert Carter is also a very intriguing prospect, because his outcome depends so much on how many of his 'swing skills' translate in the NBA. If his shooting continues development (as it appears it will) into the NBA, then his offense could be a huge plus when combined with his blooming ball-moving ability. If his interior defense is legit and he's also agile enough to keep up with quicker 4's, then his defense could be reeeally good. If his rebounding isn't good enough, then he probably won't ever see time at the 5 in the NBA.

If most everything pans out for Carter, as it seemingly could (I really believe in his shot - he shot really well on 2-point jumpers and looks really confident shooting 3's - and his defense seems legit), then he'll be a top-15 to 25 player in the league, and this will have been a really low ranking. But no one will blame me for having Robert Carter too low at No. 17, of course, which is part of why I'm fine not going super high on guys like Siakam, Carter, and the great many yet to come.

18. Gary Payton II - PG, Oregon State

There are so many layers to absorb if you want to accurately understand Payton's standing as a prospect. The #bloodlinez, the ridiculously old age (turns 24 in December), the way defense translates to the NBA, the way point guard skills translate to the NBA ... perhaps the most comforting thing for me, after slotting a near-24-year old firmly in my top-20, is how much I adore Payton's understanding of timing and space. Possibly the best in the class, and it's the kind of thing that cannot be developed to a great extent.

Payton is the best PG defender in the 2016 draft (at 6'2.5" with a 6'6.5" wingspan and ridiculously explosive athleticism), and I actually really like his chances of being a solid offensive NBA point guard. He looks so good and so comfortable running pick-and-rolls, in large part because of how well he understands timing and space, and he is so good in transition. Off the ball, he is fucking excellent as a cutter, too. He also will likely be among the best few PG rebounders in the NBA... and if he ever develops a functional 3-point shot, like Kyle Lowry and many others have at age 24 or older, then his ceiling in the league could be really high.

19. Josh Adams - PG/SG, Wyoming

Here is a comparison (with Damian Lillard's 2012 season) that puts what Josh Adams just did this season into perspective. Fucking phenomenal. He cedes turnovers and 2 percentage points of 3P% to Lillard, but everything else is virtually identical. In addition to that, Adams has some promising indicators for his defense, as well. (Though he is just 6'2" with a 6'4" wingspan, he does also possess explosive athleticism.)

Now, the big difference is that Dame steadily built up to his incredible senior season, while Adams, though he was on a small but steady growth curve his first three seasons, essentially doubled or tripled his production from his junior season to his senior season. But these two seasons by Adams and Lillard are pretty clearly the two best on-the-ball (well-rounded) statistical seasons in recent memory, between the 2-point efficiency, the 3-point success mostly coming off the dribble and the astonishing success between the two in getting to and converting at the free-throw line.

Yet it's a shaky ranking. I don't know if Adams will even get drafted. If he does, it will still probably be after pick 40. I have no idea the kind of impact he can truly make in the league, but I'm willing to take a gamble on a guy with his kind of success. (Adams' late-blooming success across the entire board is so much more attractive to me than a non-defending, non-passing guy who shot 50% from 3 for a few months.)

20. Furkan Korkmaz - SG, Anadolu Efes

I am on record as positing that Korkmaz could be the No. 2 prospect in the 2016 class (before Ingram came on strong in December obviously), and until this point he has appeared consistently in my top-5. Simply a reevaluation of priorities in scouting prospects (a renewed emphasis on defense, as should be obvious) is primarily what led to Furkan's tumble. He has gathered 7 steals and gotten to the free-throw line 15 times in over 500 minutes of play this season, which are unacceptable figures.

This is the first traditional "one-skill" 3-point shooting prospect on my big board, and he's only this high because 1) I think he's probably the best shooter in the draft, 2) he's really young and it's amazing how productive he's been at 17 and 18 years old as a high-level pro in Europe, and 3) he appears skilled in other areas (dribbling, cutting, passing).

In addition to all of this, I feel I may be underestimating his potential defensive impact, as he will be a 6'8" dude defending 2-guards the vast majority of the time. Which worries me a little - the possibility that he turns out ridiculously good and I had him this low (especially after being such a vocal leader of his bandwagon for so long) - but, yet, not enough to actually reconsider him higher than this. I'm a firm believer in defense. I won't make a ranking that is based around one particular guy becoming the exception to a rule. Not anymore, at least.

21. Patrick McCaw - SG, UNLV

To give a quick shoutout to undoubtedly one of the best in the draft-writing biz, go read JZ Mazlish's recent piece on McCaw (and the scope of some of the 3-and-D prospects in this class).

It seems to me as though McCaw's shot will probably translate and be trusty in time, and you can't even glance at his statistical profile without being blown away by the obvious two-way upside he presents, being a future NBA wing who gathered nearly 5 assists and 3 steals per 40 minutes in his sophomore season.

I slightly disagree with JZ about McCaw's defensive fundamentals (he gives up position to go for steals quite often), but that doesn't mean I don't love the upside of a wing who racks up a crazy number of steals and who also understands how to play defense.

It's very possible that McCaw becomes a wonderful secondary creator, a good shooter and a very good defender. In which case, this looks quite a bit too low. But you must understand, I love pretty much every prospect listed above. They're all excellent and I would love to pick each one as a GM - so ranking McCaw No. 21 is no shade toward him whatsoever; it simply is the way the board falls. Note, too, that I think the middle of this draft is incredibly stacked--so many potential excellent players.

22. Gary Clark - PF, Cincinnati

I doubt he will declare, but he'll be here until I read somewhere that he has officially withdrawn. Whenever he does come out, there is just so much to be excited about. (Except the age - if he waits yet another year, he would turn 23 in his first month in the NBA, in 2017.) Clark is certainly one of the best defensive prospects in the class, even though he is just 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan. He possesses incredible instincts in both blocking shots and playing passing lanes, and he's also a beastly rebounder.

As for his offense, besides his rebounding/putback skills, he is a monster in transition, and he is a really talented passer in the flow of the offense. He appears to have true shooting potential, being very comfortable (and successful) shooting 2-point jumpers and even taking occasional 3-pointers - and he surprisingly converted 13 of his 25 total attempts from 3-range on the year.

If he were 19 right now, as would be the best-case scenario for a sophomore, he would be much higher for me, and I would be touting his Draymond-esque abilities pretty hard. Alas, he's already an oldie, turning 22 in November, but I still have a bunch of love for him.

23. Deyonta Davis - C, Michigan State

I absolutely think Deyonta Davis's future in the NBA is at the center position. He can keep up with many 4's and he may be drafted as a 4, and I think that would be a big mistake. But even if you did that, you might luck out when you realize in a year or two that you have a kickass young center on your team. (Davis is unplayable in an NBA offense as a 4, period.)

Deyonta is a great shot-blocker and a good finisher and rebounder. He does well rim-rolling in the PnR and rim-running in transition, and he may even move the ball decently well. Some potential for his apparent strengths to fail to translate in the NBA--especially if he is pigeonholed as a 4 for too long--but there is also certainly potential for him to be a good two-way center for a long while in the NBA.

24. Malcolm Brogdon - SG, Virginia

Brogdon, who turns 24 in December, will defend pretty well in the NBA, and he will shoot pretty well in the NBA, and he will pass pretty damn well in the NBA. He's 6'5.5" with a 6'10" wingspan and good athleticism. He could virtually stop development and still end up a good NBA player, or he could continue developing beyond expectations and end up better than anyone expects. Pretty plain, but I like him. Skilled prospects are good prospects.

25. Ante Zizic - C, KK Cibona

Zizic is a young, productive two-way Euro center. Good rim-roller, good in transition, good free-throw shooter, good rim-protector, good rebounder... really shitty passer. Still, these types of players seem to usually end up doing well. Obvious profile for a good level of success.

26. Josh Hart - SG, Villanova

Hart does a lot of good shit on the basketball court. He'll probably shoot in the NBA, he will most certainly finish well, he will probably move the ball well, he will probably defend and rebound well... he is simply another guy who should be good and has upside to go very far in the NBA, but is intangibly lacking in certainty about the translation of his skills.

27. Fred VanVleet - PG, Wichita State

Kevin Pelton's No. 1 (!!!!) statistical prospect among 2016 NCAA players. After he incorporated foreign players into his model the past two years, Pelton's model pegged KAT and Kristaps as Nos. 1 and 2 in 2015, and Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic and Clint Capela all among the top-five guys in 2014. So I pay strong attention to Pelton's model.

And this feels way too low. But I just can't bring myself to rank him higher. I'm sure VanVleet will shoot at least decently well and pass well, so he possibly has the makings of a good career second-team point guard, but any defensive upside has to be considered shaky at best - he's 5'11" with short arms, and defensive indicators suggest he will be average at best.

VanVleet, very notably, has been consistently a truly TERRIBLE finisher at the rim through his career, and he has never had much success shooting 2-point jumpers. I don't think he will score inside the arc at all in the NBA, and I'm not even completely sure about his 3-point shot translating to the NBA. (Pelton's model, I think, usually seems to overrate college scoring efficiency, so I'm utterly shocked that FVV gets the No. 1 spot. But, for whatever reason, he does.)

My eyes and most of my brain tells me that VanVleet is a virtual lock to look something like T.J. McConnell with more 3-point shooting ability .... but the fact remains that he is the #1 guy for Kevin Pelton, whose model I greatly respect and, to some extent, even trust. So I have to have him here, I think; some guys have qualities or traits that give them obvious layers of upside, and I think the same thing applies for showing up big on Pelton's model, as VanVleet has done.

28. Jakob Poeltl - C, Utah

The reason for his huge tumble is the sudden big drop in certainty, for me, surrounding his defense on the NBA level. I am certain he will be a plus offensive player from the center position in the league - he does EVERYTHING on that side of the ball I want out of a center, an expert rim-roller, awesome finisher, great ball-mover, good free-throw shooter - but that doesn't matter much if his defense isn't up to snuff.

Utah's defense cratered with Delon Wright's absence from the lineup this season, and Poeltl sported much lower shot-blocking numbers and a similarly low steal rate. (He was also exposed far more often, with 'softness' concerns sticking around.) The main problem in Poeltl not being a superb defending prospect is it limits his ceiling to a great extent--without ever excelling on the defensive end he can still be easily end up a consistent +1 to +2 player, but he would likely be limited to largely an off-the-bench role and have his minutes managed strategically.

Simply, his low ranking is reflective of his in-my-opinion low ceiling. I think he has a "high floor" (though I dislike the use of that term) offensively and it's not as if he will be a significant minus on the defensive end.

29. Ivica Zubac - C, KK Cibona

Similar to Zizic (traditional two-way center who plays an efficient game), and possesses more mystery box quality due to far less playing time this season (though he had superior stats in offseason international play). Foreign bigs have been super good lately, and I am excited, particularly, to see how Kevin Pelton's model evaluates these guys. They, particularly, are both prone to fluctuation.

30. Zhou Qi - C, Xinjiang

Qi is very likely 22 or 23 years old (as opposed to his listed 20 years old), and that is the primary basis for his 25-spot tumble down my board. However, he is still 7'2" with 7'7" arms and really good shot-blocking skills and perhaps some upside to be a plus offensive player, so I will keep him around this high at least. This may even be a tad low.

31. Ron Baker - SG, Wichita State

Baker is a very intelligent 3-and-D senior with virtually no flaw in his profile except that he is already 23. He is 6'4" with a 6'10" wingspan, he has played on some great Wichita State teams (was a key cog in their NCAA-best defense this year), he has handled big usage and put up eye-popping assist rate-to-turnover rate numbers, he has shot pretty well on 2-point jumpers and on 3's throughout his career, a lot of it coming off-the-dribble, and he has amazing understanding of playing within a team concept on both sides of the ball.

Baker only falls this low because his shot is good, not great, and, as an old prospect, he simply has that intangible lack-of-certainty regarding the translation of his skills. But I'd bet on him being at least a decent player, for sure.

32. Jameel Warney - C/PF, Stony Brook

Warney may not be big enough (6'8") to play 5 or capable-of-scoring-outside-the-paint enough to play 4 in the NBA, but I would feel pretty solid betting on him to overcome at least one of those defects. That is, not betting on him to grow taller or become a great shooter, but betting on him to have success despite those things. Warney posted an absolutely ridiculous per-40 line this year of 24/13/1.9/3.6/1.1, on 63% scoring efficiency.

As a 4, Warney should at least be able to be Tristan Thompson in the NBA - I am not positive that he can be quite as good at defending in space as Thompson, but Warney appears to be much more of a rim-protector, much more of a passer, and much more of a threat as a diver or rim-runner ... and his offensive rebounding looks just as good. And Warney may well be able to thrive as a 5 in the future NBA due to his good athleticism and awesome toughness/competitiveness, as well as his wonderful skillset for the position.

33. Daniel Hamilton - SF/PF, UConn

Hamilton may not be a great shooter, and he has shown poorly as a finisher in both of his years, but he is a 6'8" {point guard} with good athleticism, eye-popping rebound numbers and quite a bit of reason to believe he will shoot in the NBA, between his solid 3P%, his really excellent FT% this year and the fact that he was taking a lot of his 3's off the dribble.

Tall guys who were primary ball-handlers in college usually end up good in the NBA, as a rule, and I'm not one to bet against general rules. Hamilton may fix his finishing ability, polish up his defense, show that he can really shoot and eventually end up a star player in the NBA. Or he may just be a guy you can only stick on small 4's on defense whose passing provides an offensive boon. (This description, and his profile, doesn't sound far off of a guy like Dario Saric, who you may only be able to stick on big 4's defensively, but whose passing and shooting potential can lift an offensive

Quick note: No. 33 on my board sounds very low, but I love Hamilton, and Warney, and Baker ... this class is simply incredibly deep with potentially very useful players with high upsides and what most would traditionally call 'high floors' (though there hardly exists such a thing in reality) - really good base-skills guys.

34. Stephen Zimmerman - C, UNLV

Zimmerman is a D-rebounding and defensive hound who may have upside in multiple areas that aren't captured by the base stats - shooting and perimeter skills from the 5 position. In high school, he did a lot of work from outside of 10 feet, and looked generally similar to Henry Ellenson on offense just a year ago. Since then, he played in a chaotic situation at UNLV and mainly contributed on the defensive end, which is much more important in any case.

Like most uncertain-but-promising young defensive bigs, Zimmerman experienced lapses, but he gathered over 3 blocked shots per-40 and rebounded 27% of available defensive boards, a very high number. He did shoot well on 2-point jumpers and made 5 of his 17 attempted 3-pointers, which isn't nothing. In all, he's an upside shot with a fair chance at being good and a small but considerable chance at being great.

35. Jordan Fouse - PF, Green Bay

Jordan Fouse is a young senior and an unbelievably good defensive playmaker, as well as a good rebounder and passer. His raw assist-to-turnover ratio looks so much better than his assist rate-to-turnover rate for some reason, but the latter is still solid (while the former is unbelievably good).

He went from a total non-shooter to 23% on 40 3-point attempts his junior year, to 30% on 133 attempts this year; he also went from a sub-55% free-throw shooter to 73% this season. So I'm willing to say with some confidence that Fouse has more shooting potential than your run-of-the-mill senior who just put up a 30% from 3, 73% from FT season.

36. Taurean Prince - SF, Baylor

Prince is a lower-end 3-and-D prospect with uncertainty surrounding the goodness of both his 3 and his D - though, he is incredibly explosive, and, what's more, he dealt with a ridiculously high 27% usage rate over his career, which likely hindered him a whole lot.

Prince is a young senior and he also sports a really good frame at 6'8", 220, with a 6'11.5" wingspan. With a much lesser workload, there's no telling how much more efficient Prince could be in a more defined role, and there is certainly potential for him to break out early in his career and have big success in the NBA.

37. Thon Maker - PF/C, Orangeville

Ever since the 2015 Hoop Summit, I have thought of Maker in a different light than most - as a shot-blocking fiend with real 'white whale' (shooting+shot-blocking big man) potential if he could learn to shoot. And his shot doesn't look broken in the slightest - it looks like it has real potential. I am fairly certain that Maker, if given the chance, will provide awesome rim-protection in the NBA, and, at only 19, with quite a bit of mystery-box quality, has potential to grow his game a lot elsewhere and be a significant player in the league.

38. Marquese Chriss - PF, Washington

Chriss's rebounding is a giant red flag, and he won't be able to play anywhere but 4 in the NBA. His shot has shown potential, and he has flashed shot-blocking ability, but his rise to the lottery, probably even the top-10, is nothing short of absurd. He's a while away from being useful and incredibly far from his theoretical upside. His upside, though, is a 'white whale' PF. Which is good; incredibly useful.

39. Tyler Ulis - PG, Kentucky

Ulis is an excellent fundamental point guard, with excellent passing, shooting and leadership abilities. I once was fairly certain that he had potential to be a good defender in the NBA, but now I am completely against that (some data suggests he has an awful effect on his team's D). Ulis is 5'9". He may be a marvelous backup point guard in the league, or a decent starter.

40. Jaylen Brown - SF/PF, Cal

Brown is on a crash course that tops out as DeMar DeRozan and probably looks closer to current Andrew Wiggins. That is, an efficient inside-the-arc scorer on pretty high usage who struggles shooting the ball, passing the ball and defending. He would need to make drastic, unforeseeable improvements to ever be a useful player in the league - though his ability to create offense for himself is one that gives him some slight star potential, at least.

41. Paul Zipser - SF, Bayern Muenchen

Zipser is an older prospect, but he's very athletic, he's a really good fundamental defender and he apparently can actually shoot the 3. There's not much else to discuss: 3-and-D Euro, big, athletic.

42. Jamal Murray - SG, Kentucky

One of the best shooters in the draft, Murray is simply a minus on defense (without much hope for becoming a plus defender). As an off-ball shooter, he will likely need defense to ever be a player of any significance in the NBA; if his creation ability is better than expected, as some hypothesize, then he could be current C.J. McCollum by the time he reaches his second contract. Which would be a great turn-out.

The difference between the two of Murray and McCollum is dribbling ability and some passing ability, both of which open up the latter's game to an astonishing degree. Without them, he would look like J.J. Redick - without any semblance of defense - which is what I imagine Murray's realistic upside to be.

43. Rade Zagorac - SF, Mega Leks

Zagorac has less pedigree as a shooter than Zipser, but is younger and has more statistical reason to believe he is going to be a great NBA defender. He does have clear shooting potential, though, and his passing is perhaps a plus skill as well. Clear path to being useful and beyond: shoot consistently.

44. Henry Ellenson - PF, Marquette

Similar reasoning to Poeltl for the huge drop - he may well eventually be useful as an offensive big, but his upside is severely constricted by the fact that he likely won't defend well in a team concept ever. Simply the kind of prospect you typically want to avoid betting on - "exception to the rule." Bad defensive bigs who are conducive to winning are hard to find. I'm not betting on Ellenson, whose line looks similar to Kevin Love's lone year at UCLA--except worse across the entire board--to be Kevin Love.

45. Domantas Sabonis - PF, Gonzaga

Sabonis is a post-scoring and rebounding dynamo who passes well and defends in space. Due to his bloodlines - his father Arvydas was one of the best big men ever - and how good he may get at his strengths, he may have a high ceiling. But the fact that he will never protect the rim and may never provide good help-defense from a big position probably will prevent him from ever being a really good player.

46. Andrew Andrews - SG, Washington

Andrews just had himself one of the most impressive offensive seasons in recent memory, at least as far as I'm concerned with NBA prospects - meaning that things like scoring efficiency aren't of paramount importance while things like 'showcased future shooting potential' are. Andrews got to the foul line like an absolute maniac (and converted at 85% from there), passed really well without turning the ball over, shot really well from 3 (much of it coming off the dribble), and did it all on 29% usage.

The problem is 6'2" senior wings without a single scrap of evidence of playing defense in their favor never become good NBA defenders. It doesn't happen. So Andrews won't really be playable on defense unless he can be hidden on a mediocre point guard or a small, mediocre 2-guard.

47. A.J. Hammons - C, Purdue

Hammons is a rebounding and shot-blocking beast. He may not be a terribly negative offensive player, and he may even have a chance to shoot from outside of 10 feet.

48. Buddy Hield - SG, Oklahoma

Hield is a one-skill shooter who enjoyed a ridiculous 20-game hot streak from beyond the arc in which he was undoubtedly the best player in college basketball. The problem is you can't really project anyone to shoot above 41% from 3 over a full season in their entire career ... let alone a specific player to shoot well above that mark for multiple seasons in his career, as some have said they project for Hield.

He won't defend and he won't pass well, and he probably won't move very well off the ball. Hield would be a massive exception to the rule of old, non-defending prospects almost never panning out.

49. Daniel Ochefu - C, Villanova

Ochefu slowly but surely became a dominant force in the middle of a champion - a good offensive focal point at times on the college level with base skills to be an offensive plus in the NBA, plus some rim-protection ability, excellent rebounding ability, and defensive intelligence. Ochefu is a non-athlete who may not do well covering ground in the middle of an NBA defense, but he should be a positive contributor for years (likely off of somebody's bench) regardless.

50. James Webb - PF, Boise State

Webb is an very sound fundamental defensive player (and excellent rebounder) who has the makings of a good offensive player - he has shown shooting potential and some dribble-drive ability. He is also very old, but he is a super explosive athlete. Certainly a possible good contributor in the NBA.

51. Malik Beasley - SG, Florida State

Beasley will almost certainly be a minus-defender in the NBA, but he still has upside to change his tune there - and if he does, then his scoring prowess (mainly by way of 3-pointers) could lead to him being a big contributor for his team. But non-passing non-defenders almost never work out.

52. Leon Kratzer - C, PBC CSKA Moscow

Kratzer is a 7-foot 19-year old Russian center whose rebounding numbers are absolutely out of this world. He can protect the rim solidly well it seems, and he probably can't do much else.

53. Jarrod Uthoff - PF, Iowa

Uthoff shows both 'white whale' skills - shooting and some shot-blocking - but isn't anything of a rebounder and doesn't do anything else.

54. Kay Felder - PG, Oakland

Felder is 5'9" but ultra-mega-skilled. He led the NCAA in assist rate by a long shot this season and shot well for a guy with a 31% usage rate (almost entirely off the dribble). He's a little bull of sorts in the way that he's built and the way he uses his body, so his ability to get to the free-throw line may even translate to the NBA, at least in part.

There are some indicators that he may defend not ridiculously horribly in the NBA, which is a good start. But I wouldn't put much stock into them for a 5'9" dude, period. This ranking strikes me as one that could very easily bite me down here, as could the very next one on the list, but, again, I don't really bet on exceptions to rules and this is where I believe these guys belong.

55. Cat Barber - PG, North Carolina State

Barber is an incredibly quick and fast 6'2" guard. He won't guard anyone in the NBA, but he will probably go wherever he wants with the ball in his hands and he can probably shoot quite well. He is very good at taking care of the ball, and he's a solid passer. I wonder if he can be hidden on the worse of the 1 and 2 guards in certain situations and played at either the 1 or the 2 position in the NBA. I'm excited to follow his progression.

56. Demetrius Jackson - PG, Notre Dame

Jackson is an explosive 6'1" point guard whose production dropped off, relatively speaking, in an expanded role (that is, playing point guard). He's also an old junior, and he won't play a lick of defense in the NBA. However, he is still probably a great shooting prospect, and he's a solid passer (really good one if he's in a secondary ball-handling role) who can at times get to the rim at will because of his athleticism. Which is valuable.

57. DeAndre Bembry - SF, St. Joseph's

A really good passing wing prospect. Also really athletic. That's most of what needs to be said, but, as we know, tall college primary ball-handlers often pan out, and Bembry has a lot of fans in the draft community as well. So I think I'm probably a little lower than I'd like to be on him, but it's only fair to be fair.

58. Alex Caruso - PG/SG, Texas A&M

Caruso is an under-the-radar guard without much scoring prowess but with shooting, defense, size and some passing. His incredibly high turnover rate worries me a lot, but I wonder about the possibility of him becoming a 2-guard in the NBA - he would need to become more confident taking a higher volume of 3's, but he could really work out in the right situation as a dynamic 3-and-D small wing.

59. Vince Edwards - SF/PF, Purdue

Edwards is a good shooting prospect and a future plus-passer in the NBA. He's also 6'8", 220, with a 7'0" wingspan, and good intelligence for the game, so he may eventually end up a solid defender (however, he is not one now).

60. Nigel Hayes - SF/PF, Wisconsin

Hayes's rebounding numbers look very poor for a 3 prospect, let alone a 4. (It doesn't really make sense, given that he's built like a pterodactyl-tank at 6'8"/240/7'3.5".) His sophomore-year shooting also looks very flukey in retrospect, influenced by a number of factors. However, if he can put his great team-defending ability together with his passing ability, and keep progressing on his shot and his rebounding, then he could end up a serious player in the league. Lot of 'if's, though.

Following the board, I would like to organize the near-misses by categories, like so:

Needs more ancillary skills:

Melo Trimble, Thomas Bryant and Malik Newman (and many others) fit this category as guys who have solid base skills and non-horrid basketball IQ but would certainly benefit hugely from intense defensive training and more in the way of rebounding skills.

Trimble needs to try harder on defense in order to play enough to develop his shooting, passing and slashing skills enough to be a good NBA player. Bryant needs to protect the rim or just defend in a team concept well enough to get actual playing time, which would allow his offensive strengths--finishing, potential for shooting--to grow and flourish. Newman is a 3-point shooting 2-guard who may have more slashing and possibly passing potential than he showcased in his freshman season, which started late due to injuries and extenuating circumstances.

Needs more shooting:



Dejounte Murray and Markus Kennedy (and undoubtedly so many others) fit this category as prospects with well-rounded profiles in almost every way - except for their ability to shoot the ball from outside of 5 feet.

Murray is a young, big and athletic point guard who defends and rebounds really well, but he can't shoot for his life. Kennedy is an excellent PF defender, rebounder and passer, but he may not be able to make any kind of impact without more in his offensive repertoire - a shot would help him the most.

Needs more basketball intelligence:

Skal Labissiere, Cheick Diallo and Andrey Desyatnikov (and many others) could all be real players in the league if they played with more intelligence about their games.

Labissiere could be a true 'white whale' PF if he 1) learned to rebound at all and 2) improved his awareness and basketball IQ (by a lot). Diallo just doesn't know what the fuck is going on, ever, on offense, and he has to improve his team-defense a lot too - but he blocks shots well, and he can finish, and he's very athletic. It's easy for these types to turn out really good. Desyatnikov is a 7'3" monster who plays almost nil but who racks up stats (and looks blah doing it) when he does play. It's also easy for players of this height to be successful.

And that will wrap it up!

I hope, if nothing else, you gleaned some useful information here and there, and that I could possibly open up your mind to a few new ideas; that's all I ever hope to do.

I approach every ranking objectively always.

Please comment and share if you enjoyed it! Thanks for reading.