Alabama last elected a Democrat as governor 20 years ago. Former Gov. Robert Bentley received nearly twice the votes as Democrat Parker Griffith in the most recent gubernatorial contest four years ago.

The Cook Political Report labels Alabama's governor's race as "solid Republican." The same label comes from the Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, produced at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

"Barring some major developments in this race, it's difficult to see a path for a Democrat to win," said Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor with the Crystal Ball.

Said Waymon Burke, a political science professor at Calhoun Community College: "It's definitely an uphill battle."

Democrats, ahead of the Reckon by AL.com debate Tuesday in Birmingham, heard these same declarations last year ahead of the special U.S. Senate race between Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore.

They are hoping for a similar outcome. Jones defeated the scandal-plagued Moore to become first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Alabama since 1992.

"Certainly, the Senate race was a very unusual race just because of when it happened and the circumstances surrounding it were very unusual as well ... Roy Moore and the idiosyncrasies, to use a polite term, about his candidacy," said Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster for Anzalone Liszt Research in Montgomery. "But at a minimum, there is a prototype on how Democrats can be successful in statewide elections. It's a prototype that didn't exist a few years ago and there were legitimate questions on whether Democrats could win statewide."

Momentum opportunity

Democrats vying for governor will state their case during a debate that kicks off at 7 p.m. at the Lyric Fine Arts Theatre. It will be broadcast live on the Reckon by AL.com Facebook page. Six candidates are scheduled to participate: Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox, former Alabama State Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, former state Rep. James Fields Jr. of Cullman, marriage equality activist Chris Countryman, Montgomery resident Doug "New Blue" Smith, and Dothan minister Anthony White.

Of those, Maddox and Cobb are viewed as the top two favorites to win the Democratic nomination on June 5. Both have raised at or near $500,000. Cobb, according to the latest campaign finance figures with the Alabama Secretary of State's Office, has $220,737 cash on hand, while Maddox has $219,781.

Running third is Fields, who served in the Alabama House from 2008-2010. He's raised over $16,000, though he only has around $3,600 cash on hand.

For now, political observers view the Democratic contest as a two-person battle. The debate could offer a prime opportunity for one of the two contenders to emerge with an advantage.

"The debate affords both Cobb and Maddox an opportunity to gain momentum," said Jess Brown, a retired political science professor from Athens State University and a longtime observer of state politics. "(It's about) which candidate will dominate post-debate coverage because they furnished the press with red meat, rather than milquetoast."

The Democrats, by and large, share similar stances on major political issues. They all mostly support a statewide lottery to help fund education. They all also support an expansion of Medicaid and the legalization of medical marijuana.

Sue Bell Cobb (file photo)

But Cobb, during an April 11 debate, criticized Maddox for what she said was a lack of him supporting a minimum wage increase for Tuscaloosa. Maddox said Cobb had distorted his record, and that supporting a minimum wage increase to $10.10 an hour is unlawful and could've led to expensive lawsuits against Tuscaloosa.

Burke said he believes the candidates will continue to take "assertive" positions on issues, but McCrary said that Cobb and Maddox need to continue telling their personal stories to voters.

"They are still in that introductory phase," he said. "The average voter is now probably only starting to focus on this race."

Christian Smith, president of the Bay Area Young Democrats, said the debate offers an opportunity for both candidates erase unfavorable early impressions.

"There are a lot of people who like Walt, but feel he's stiff," said Smith. "With Sue Bell Cobb, I can't reconcile her leaving the Supreme Court (in 2011) and supporting Jeff Sessions. I think she has to touch on that and talk about it again if she expects anyone to change their mind on those issues."

Cobb endorsed Sessions' nomination as U.S. attorney general in early 2017.

McCrary said he believes Maddox and Cobb are both stronger candidates than Jones at this point in the race. He said that unlike Jones ahead of last year's Senate campaign, Maddox and Cobb have previous electoral victories.

For Jess Brown, the key for the Democrats is to communicate a populist message that resonates regarding the economy, while maintaining a conservative-leaning stance on most social issues.

"They must not utter a word that alienates African-American voters or appears unsympathetic to the feminist agenda," said Brown. "They must set a high bar on ethics and characterize (current Alabama Gov.) Kay Ivey as a consummate Goat Hill insider. This mix is difficult to do, but necessary to be viable in a runoff and to attract independent voters during the General Election campaign."

GOP advantage

But are the Republican advantages too much to overcome? Ivey has more than $2 million in campaign funds at her disposal, and her GOP rivals - Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, Birmingham evangelist Scott Dawson and Alabama State Sen. Bill Hightower of Mobile - each have raised more money than Maddox or Cobb.

"While Democrats are likely to have a relatively favorable national electoral environment this November, they need more than that to have a shot at winning the (Alabama) governorship," said Skelley.

Ivey, who has declined invitations to debate her GOP rivals, has been considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination. As Skelley notes, she seemingly has strong favorables: Morning Consult found her with the third-highest approval rating among the country's 50 governors.

"If Gov. Ivey were scandal-ridden and unpopular, that could create the conditions where a Democratic win might be feasible," said Skelley. "But as it stands, Ivey appears to be quite popular."

He added, "Even if she actually loses the Republican primary, the GOP might still be OK. It seems like Tommy Battle would be the most likely GOP challenger to defeat Ivey, and he's raised plenty of money and is mayor of Huntsville, one of the state's principal cities."

Angi Stalnaker, a Republican campaign strategist based in Montgomery, said the intrigue in the Democratic contest occurs after a winner is decided, and if Ivey comes out ahead in the Republican race.

"You will see two different possibilities - Sue Bell Cobb and Kay Ivey would be an interesting race to watch with two women both with government experience going after each other," said Stalnaker. "With Maddox, you are looking at generational and stylistic differences."

She, like others, believe it's a "challenge" for the Democrat to win this year's governor's race. But she said it's "more possible" for a Democratic win in 2018 than it was in 2014 or 2010.

"So far, it's been a really boring governor's race. There is just nothing holding the people of Alabama's attention about this race."," she said, anticipating more intrigue around mid-May when campaigns decide whether to shift tactics and attack the perceived front runners.

Burke said that for Democrats hoping for a win, a late-entry by Moore as an independent candidate would be the best possible scenario. There is no indication that Moore is entertaining a run.

"I guess some are hoping Roy Moore jumps into this thing," he said. "They are needing another Roy Moore."