Opinion

If Puerto Rico gets statehood, some states lose House seats

Ricardo Rossello, governor of Puerto Rico, celebrates at the New Progressive Party headquarters in San Juan on June 11 as Puerto Ricans voted overwhelmingly to become America’s 51st state. If that happens, five states could lose seats in the U.S. House. less Ricardo Rossello, governor of Puerto Rico, celebrates at the New Progressive Party headquarters in San Juan on June 11 as Puerto Ricans voted overwhelmingly to become America’s 51st state. If that happens, ... more Photo: Erika P. Rodriguez /New York Times Photo: Erika P. Rodriguez /New York Times Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close If Puerto Rico gets statehood, some states lose House seats 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

Six years ago, then-President Barack Obama visited Puerto Rico, the first sitting U.S. president to do so since John F. Kennedy’s visit in 1961. At the time of Obama’s visit, around half of the island’s citizens favored statehood. Now, just a few days ago, Puerto Ricans have overwhelmingly voted for U.S. statehood.

Puerto Rico has been part of the United States since 1898, and since 1917 people born in Puerto Rico are U.S. citizens. Because the island is not a state, Puerto Ricans may vote in U.S. presidential primaries but are not permitted to vote in presidential elections nor have official representation in the U.S. House or Senate. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, how might this change?

If statehood happens, obviously its people would gain the vote in presidential elections and have congressional representation. Statehood would also bring parity with the other 50 states regarding economic aid, which may be a contributing factor to the recent overwhelmingly positive vote for statehood. Puerto Rico today is in a deep recession, facing more than $120 billion in debt, including public-sector bills and money owed to pension funds.

The recently elected governor of the island, Ricardo Roselló, campaigned for statehood in an attempt to remedy Puerto Rico’s debt crisis.

But here is the big question: If Puerto Rico does indeed become the 51st state, what kind of changes are likely to occur in the U.S. House?

At present, the U.S. House has 435 seats. Puerto Rican statehood is unlikely to increase the number of House seats. When Alaska and Hawaii became states in the late 1950s, the number of House seats was temporarily increased to 438 but reverted to 435 after the 1960 census.

Once again, it is most probable that if Puerto Rico is admitted as a state, the number of House seats would remain unaltered.

Here’s how House seats are apportioned:

First, every state automatically receives one seat. Subsequently, the remaining 385 seats are distributed among the states on the basis of their population. Data from the 2010 census were used in 2011 to determine the current distribution of the 385 House seats among the 50 states (the District of Columbia does not receive a seat).

What will happen to the distribution of seats if Puerto Rico becomes a state?

We used the 2010 census data but added Puerto Rico as the 51st state. We recalculated the apportionment distribution using the 2010 population data but included Puerto Rico. In 2010, Puerto Rico had just less than 4 million people, although the population declined to almost 3.8 million in 2015.

Here is what will happen if the population distribution numbers across the states in 2020 are similar to what they were in 2010. According to the 2010 populations of the now 51 states, Puerto Rico would be allocated an additional four seats beyond its automatic first seat, for a total of five.

If Puerto Rico gets five seats, which states will lose seats?

Under the allocation scenario examined, Texas, Florida, Washington, California and Minnesota will each lose one seat in the House.

Congress has the final authority regarding the admission of a new state. While some assume that the House and the Senate will pass a resolution authorizing statehood for Puerto Rico, others believe this will be difficult. The Republican-led Congress will likely be reticent to admit such a Democratic-leaning electorate as Puerto Rico.

Also, states that stand to lose a House seat may oppose admitting Puerto Rico. Moreover, there could be huge economic costs if the new state of Puerto Rico seeks assistance in remedying its major debt crisis.

Regardless of what happens in Congress, Puerto Ricans have spoken, and they want statehood.

Dudley L. Poston Jr. is a professor of sociology and the George T. and Gladys H. Abell Professor of Liberal Arts at Texas A&M University in College Station. D. Nicole Farris is an assistant professor of sociology at Texas A&M University-Commerce.