In the modern era of sports, players are constantly on the move, whether it be via free agency or trade. There are many potential effects that playing for a new team, in a new ballpark, can have on a player’s production. As we approach fantasy baseball drafts, and you begin to take a look at this year’s rankings and prep for complete and utter draft-day dominance, take into consideration some players who packed up and shipped off to different teams, and possible effects these moves could have on their stats for the 2017 season.

Here is an example of a pitcher and a batter to consider come draft day. Will their change of scenery change their value for good or better?

Prepare for your fantasy baseball draft using our draft simulator tool >>

Chris Sale (SP – BOS)

Traded by the Chicago White Sox, the lanky lefty American League ace could be in store for a serious change of fortune this upcoming season. Advanced statistics steer me in a direction to believe he is in store for a potential career-worst season. He might be putting on Red Sox, but all I see are red flags.

Sale’s 2016 season was littered with declining statistics, and even career worsts in some areas. The gunslinger gave up a career-high 31 percent hard hit balls-in-play, in addition to a contact percentage of 76, also a career-high.

This number ballooned due to an increase in contact hitters made on pitches thrown outside the strike zone, another career high at a staggering 65 percent. Some would try to argue that this was an anomaly, but the following chain reaction of data tells me otherwise.

Sale’s fastball velocity dipped from 94.5 mph to 93 last year. This allowed hitters to cheat a bit and sit on his off-speed and breaking pitches longer than usual, hence the increase in contact on pitches outside the zone. Look at how this has hindered the effectiveness of his slider from 2015 to 2016:

Slider Strikeout% Line Drive% Fly Ball% 2015 54 28 16 2016 46 34 27



In addition to this, on a simpler level, it allowed hitters to get around on the fastball, particularly fastballs up in the zone, and instead of missing, hitters made hard contact in the form of line drives and home runs.

Fastball O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% 2015 59 82 75 2016 72 84 81



O-Contact is the percent of contact batters make on pitches outside of the zone. If you look at the chart above, you’ll see the alarming difference between 2015 and 2016 for Chris Sale in this area. Hitters are making contact on his fastball outside of the zone 13 percent more often, mainly due to his dip in velocity.

The final stat that concerns me about Sale is his home run total. Last season he surrendered a career-high 27 long balls, with 21 of them to left field.

Fenway Park has the famed Green Monster, but in terms of major league ballpark distances, it is a chip shot from home plate. You need to look no further than fellow lefty ace David Price, who went from giving up 17 total home runs in 2015, to 17 at Fenway alone last year (30 in total for the season, a career high). I am not trying to tell you Sale is going to fall off the map, but I am telling you his name and reputation are more valuable that what he’ll give you in 2017, meaning he will be drafted way earlier than what he’ll provide in fantasy value this season.

Other Notables

Mark Melancon (RP – SF)

The former Pirates closer was traded to Washington and didn’t miss a beat. This offseason the San Francisco Giants put on a full court press to bring him in. The Giants blew 30 saves last season so you can lock Melancon in as their closer, and one with serious job security in a volatile fantasy position. What’s more, The Giants home stadium, AT&T Park, yielded the least home runs in the league last season, making Melancon’s job just a bit more comfortable in tight games.

Aroldis Chapman (RP – NYY)

Don’t let the minor meltdown in the World Series scare you, Chapman is still 1 and 1A when it comes to the best closers in the game. Although this isn’t exactly new scenery, The Yankees are bringing Chapman back after the Cubs rented him for a ring (which worked). Chapman was vocal about how much he loved playing in New York, and Dellin Betances’ September yips fully secures Chapman as a lock-down permanent closer for the Yankees going forward. Draft as you will. You know what you’re getting, all 105 mph of it.

Ian Desmond (OF – COL)

The former Nationals shortstop had a bit of a bounce-back in 2016 with the Texas Rangers, most notably in the first half of the season. Granted, Desmond took a positional value hit moving from SS to OF, we all know 20 plus knocks at SS is harder to come by than it is in the outfield. Desmond didn’t do much different from 2016 than he did in 2015 in regards to his swinging, contact, and hard-hit ball data and tendencies.

One thing he didn’t do was swing as much. Quite simply Desmond was much more patient at the plate, and it led to an elevation in his on-base percentage and contact on better pitches. Because of this, his line drive rate increased five percent, and his strikeout percentage dropped over five percent.

Ian Desmond Line Drive % Strikeout% BABIP 2015 15.6 29.2 .307 2016 20.6 23.6 .350



Increasing his line drive rate helped boost Desmond’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) 43 points, that’s huge! It certainly resulted in much better production: more hits, more RBI, more runs scored.

Now Desmond is headed to the hitter-friendly atmosphere (literally) of Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies. If he carries that level of pitch selection/patience into the 2017 season, Desmond could be in store for his greatest offensive performance yet. His career numbers in 23 games at Coors Field are RIDICULOUS:

AB 2B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS 95 11 3 18 .379 .406 .611 1.016



Desmond has been an extremely durable player, averaging 152 games per year for his career. He has never reached the 30 home run plateau, but I believe that changes in 2017.

His current ADP is in the mid to high 50s, so don’t reach for him on Draft Day, but circle him early and grab him around that pick. In addition to his added patience, he has the chance to play 80 games at Coors Field, where in 23 games he put up a Barry Bonds-esque slash line.

Other Notables

Edwin Encarnacion (1B/DH – CLE)

The most recognizable home run trot in baseball is heading to the Tribe this season. Encarnacion, now freshly 34 years old, is a Draft Day concern for me. He loved hitting at the Rogers Centre, with a home slash line of .282/.373/.570 compared to a mark of .246/.342/.492 on the road. Granted most ball players will take that road line to the bank any day, but Encarnacion is getting older and heading to a new home. He struck out 40 more times in 2016 than he did in 2015, a 30 percent increase, and he had his lowest OPS since 2011. I don’t expect his monster numbers to repeat this year. I think he will sniff 30 home runs, but I think he’ll do it softly. With an ADP of 23, I am going nowhere near this guy, and neither should you.

Dexter Fowler (OF – STL)

Fresh off a championship with their biggest rival, Fowler is a red-bird. His rank of around 150 makes him a very intriguing pick to me. Health has always been Fowler’s hindrance, but when healthy he produces. He had a career high OBP of .393 last season with 13 home runs and 13 steals in 125 games. If he can stay healthy, you are getting a 20/20 high on-base player in the 13th round. He is absolutely worth the pick in that time of the draft. As a matter of fact, I’d reach for him in the 12th.

Matt Holliday (1B/OF/DH – NYY)

A once elite player now sits on the fringe of the top 250 on Draft Day. Holliday signed a one-year deal with the Yankees, which means he is playing for his next contract. He hit 20 home runs and 20 doubles in 110 games last season for the Cardinals. The Yankees intend on using him a lot at DH which can help him stay healthy and have more at-bats. Holliday hit half of his home runs to right or center last season. He is the definition of “country strong.” In an interview with MLB.com this month he said he is aware of his ground ball to fly ball ratios and is looking to lift the ball more this season. If he can stay healthy as a DH and add loft, that short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium could put Holliday back in the 30-home run discussion, and that is an absolute steal in the last rounds of your draft. Target him with confidence as there is literally no risk and all reward that late in the draft.

BOTTOM LINE

Avoid: Chris Sale, Edwin Encarnacion

Target: Ian Desmond, Mark Melancon, Aroldis Chapman, Dexter Fowler, Matt Holliday

This analysis can be applied to all players who have moved to different teams this off-season. The cocktail of a player’s statistical trends, tendencies, history, and how their new home affects them can help you make smart decisions come Draft Day. Players often have a change of scenery, and whether good or bad, it often leads to a change in value.

Statistics provided by Fangraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com, ADP provided by FantasyPros.



Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | Google Play

John Hoey is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter at JohnnyCrashMLB.