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The cheap spectrum gambit seems logical. According to one industry analysis, over the years Wind acquired units of spectrum through Ottawa’s spectrum giveaway for 57 cents per megahertz per population. Last week Shaw said it would be paying $1.06 per unit of spectrum, measure in megahertz per population. The existing telco firms paid upwards of $2 when they bought spectrum at the same auctions where Wind was handed spectrum subsidies.

It’s possible to work up a dollar value on the total amount of spectrum value Ottawa gave away at subsidized rates over the years. Ottawa auctioned off 1 billion units of spectrum over the years. If existing major telcos paid an average of $1 more per unit, that’s a $1 billion subsidy to independent mobile industry that went nowhere.

As to where the industry is heading next? Four big telcos battling it out for market share might warm some competition theorists, but it may do nothing for consumers — especially if Canada now has four major players who cannot ever merge or be taken over by a foreign player. And what foreign player would ever want to enter Canada given the treatment VimpelCom received — essentially forced to sell Wind Mobile to a Canadian-led cabal that then flipped it to a Canadian incumbent telco.

As for lower prices, the head of Shaw didn’t seem too enthusiastic last week in an interview with The Globe and Mail. “I see pricing somewhat discounted, but probably closer to the incumbents as we go forward, which allows us to increase ARPU [average revenue per user]. But listen, growth is very important to us and that’s going to be a key driver, as well as making sure consumers feel there’s value.”

Canadians may see lower mobile wireless prices, but not necessarily lower mobile wireless prices.