Chicago rents collapse, New York’s swoon, Southern California’s boom. And the US average hides all the drama on the ground.

The situation with rents in the most expensive US rental markets can be summarized like this: Free-fall in Chicago, where the median asking rent for two-bedroom apartments has plunged 32% from its peak, a similar collapse in rents in Honolulu, double-digit declines from the peak in New York City and Washington DC, mixed movements in the Bay Area, a blistering boom in Southern California, and everything in between.

Watered down into a tidy nationwide average, the median asking rent for one-bedroom apartments in the US rose 1.4% in April compared to a year ago, to $1,185. And for two-bedroom apartments, it rose 2.2% from a year ago to $1,422.

A peculiar phenomenon cropped up last November: The median asking rent for 1-BR apartments suddenly surged by the double-digits, even as the median asking rent for 2-BR apartments was barely edging up. This phenomenon endured for four months but has now collapsed (the phenomenon remains unexplained, though some suspects have been lined up):

The data, provided by Zumper, is based on asking rents in multifamily apartment buildings, including new construction, as it appeared in active listings in cities across the US. Single-family houses and condos for rent are not included. Also not included are studios and units with more than two bedrooms. Zumper releases the data in its National Rent Report.

In San Francisco, the most expensive major rental market in the US, the median asking rent for 1-BR apartments rose 2.1% year-over-year to $3,440 in April, but remains down 6.3% from the peak in October 2015. For 2-BR apartments, it rose 1.1% year-over-year to $4,550 but remains down 9.0% from the peak in October 2015.

There is no shortage of apartments in San Francisco. Far from it. For example, Zillow lists 1,851 apartments for rent at the moment, up from 1,581 a month ago, and up 61% from the 1,149 listed in August 2016. This is a result of the construction boom. The City is not large, with a total of 387,000 housing units. But almost all the supply is high-end – and I mean “expensive,” not necessarily “luxurious.”

The cheapest studio with a bath (not counting rooms without bath) listed on Zillow today has a asking rent of $1,250. There are only 424 units listed with an asking rent of less than $3,000. In turn, 1,427 listings sport asking rents of $3,000 and over, with 1,281 listings wanting over $4,000 (including 3-BR and up that are not reflected in Zumper’s data). In other words, there are plenty of units for rent, but most people cannot afford them. Our local term for this phenomenon – “Housing Crisis” – describes a crisis of rent inflation. There is no crisis of availability.

In the second most expensive major rental market, New York City, the median asking rent for 1-BR apartments edged down 0.7% year-over-year to $2,890 and is down 14.2% from the peak in March 2016. 2-BR apartment rents fell 3.5% to $3,330 and are down 16.3% from the peak in March 2016.

These are serious declines, but they do not include incentives or “concessions,” such as “1 month free” or “2 months free,” which reduce the effective rent for the first year by 8% or 17%. Concessions have reached record levels In New York City.

The table below shows the 16 most expensive major rental markets. The shaded area shows peak rents and the movements since then. Upon popular request, I have asked Zumper for the rental data on Orange County in Southern California, which hadn’t been included. Zumper has now added Anaheim and Santa Ana to their data for the 100 most expensive rental markets. Both made the list of the top 16. Now there are eight major California cities in the 16 most expensive rental markets. Across the nation, markets diverge, with a number of double-digit decliners from their respective peaks, and a number of new records:

Seattle rents are seesawing between a vibrant economy and the onslaught of new supply from its dizzying housing construction boom that focused on the high end. So the median 1-BR asking rent edged out by $10 the record set in August 2017. But 2-BR rents remained nearly 5% below their peak of April 2016.

Chicago rents are in free-fall, with 1-BR asking rents down 27% from the peak in October 2015 and 2-BR asking rents down 32% from the peak in September 2015. Chicago has had plenty of new construction, but the population has been declining as tax burdens are growing and as the city is gingerly and ever so slowly tottering toward what may ultimately become the largest municipal bankruptcy filing.

Rents in Honolulu, after having plunged for three years straight, are struggling to find a bottom, with asking rents for 1-BR and 2-BR apartments down over 20% from their respective peaks in early 2015.

Of the three Bay Area cities in the chart above, rents are down from the respective peaks in two: San Francisco and Oakland. The drop in Oakland (13% and 15% from their peaks) is significant. But in San Jose, the situation is mixed. The median asking rents for a 1-BR set a record in March and stayed there in April, but for a 2-BR, it’s still down 2.6% from the peak in April two years ago.

There are five cities in Southern California on the chart above: Los Angeles, San Diego, Anaheim, Santa Ana, and Long Beach. Rents in all five are surging to new records, in some cases by the double digits.

Across the US, every rental market has its own dynamics, and the sanitized version of a national average of rent increases doesn’t apply to the local tenant and landlord, who may find their market in a steep rent decline or in a breathless boom. The table below shows Zumper’s list of the 100 most expensive major rental markets in the US, by median asking rents for 1-BR and 2-BR units in April, and their percentage changes compared to a year ago (use browser search box to find a city). Also compare these cities to The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in the US.

City 1 BR Rent Y/Y % 2 BR Rent Y/Y % 1 San Francisco, CA $3,440 2.10% $4,550 1.10% 2 New York, NY $2,890 -0.70% $3,330 -3.50% 3 San Jose, CA $2,500 10.60% $3,000 5.30% 4 Boston, MA $2,300 4.50% $2,700 3.80% 4 Los Angeles, CA $2,300 10.00% $3,240 8.70% 6 Washington, DC $2,200 6.80% $2,770 -8.90% 7 Oakland, CA $2,100 1.90% $2,500 0.00% 8 Seattle, WA $1,960 5.90% $2,540 3.70% 9 San Diego, CA $1,800 13.20% $2,370 9.70% 10 Miami, FL $1,750 -2.80% $2,380 -5.20% 11 Anaheim, CA $1,720 15.40% $2,120 15.80% 12 Honolulu, HI $1,680 -6.70% $2,300 -3.40% 13 Santa Ana, CA $1,660 7.80% $2,110 12.20% 14 Fort Lauderdale, FL $1,600 0.60% $1,990 2.10% 15 Long Beach, CA $1,570 15.40% $2,120 8.70% 16 Chicago, IL $1,500 -10.70% $1,810 -15.80% 17 Philadelphia, PA $1,450 6.60% $1,650 4.40% 17 Providence, RI $1,450 7.40% $1,510 7.10% 19 Denver, CO $1,440 15.20% $1,960 15.30% 19 Portland, OR $1,440 7.50% $1,670 5.00% 21 Minneapolis, MN $1,430 11.70% $1,890 15.20% 22 Atlanta, GA $1,410 8.50% $1,800 11.10% 23 Baltimore, MD $1,390 14.90% $1,560 12.20% 24 New Orleans, LA $1,380 7.00% $1,480 -6.90% 25 Nashville, TN $1,360 15.30% $1,450 10.70% 26 Dallas, TX $1,300 -1.50% $1,740 -3.30% 27 Houston, TX $1,260 15.60% $1,560 14.70% 27 Madison, WI $1,260 9.60% $1,430 15.30% 29 Scottsdale, AZ $1,240 -0.80% $1,910 -8.20% 30 Orlando, FL $1,220 15.10% $1,410 14.60% 31 Charlotte, NC $1,210 3.40% $1,350 7.10% 32 Sacramento, CA $1,200 9.10% $1,400 7.70% 33 Austin, TX $1,170 11.40% $1,450 8.20% 34 Irving, TX $1,160 5.50% $1,590 11.20% 35 Plano, TX $1,130 6.60% $1,500 4.90% 35 Tampa, FL $1,130 14.10% $1,370 14.20% 37 Aurora, CO $1,110 12.10% $1,460 7.40% 38 Fort Worth, TX $1,090 13.50% $1,280 15.30% 39 Pittsburgh, PA $1,080 3.80% $1,340 2.30% 40 Durham, NC $1,070 15.10% $1,230 13.90% 41 Richmond, VA $1,060 7.10% $1,270 11.40% 41 Salt Lake City, UT $1,060 15.20% $1,320 10.00% 41 Virginia Beach, VA $1,060 15.20% $1,200 4.30% 44 Gilbert, AZ $1,050 5.00% $1,360 5.40% 44 Henderson, NV $1,050 8.20% $1,210 5.20% 44 Newark, NJ $1,050 8.20% $1,310 12.00% 47 Buffalo, NY $1,040 11.80% $1,210 -6.90% 47 Chandler, AZ $1,040 10.60% $1,270 9.50% 47 Chesapeake, VA $1,040 8.30% $1,200 4.30% 50 St Petersburg, FL $1,030 14.40% $1,630 9.40% 51 Raleigh, NC $1,000 0.00% $1,150 -4.20% 52 Kansas City, MO $950 8.00% $1,090 16.00% 52 Phoenix, AZ $950 6.70% $1,170 6.40% 54 Jacksonville, FL $930 4.50% $1,100 3.80% 55 Milwaukee, WI $920 12.20% $1,040 15.60% 56 Boise, ID $910 9.60% $950 0.00% 56 Colorado Springs, CO $910 13.80% $1,100 0.00% 58 Fresno, CA $900 8.40% $1,080 13.70% 58 Mesa, AZ $900 15.40% $1,060 11.60% 60 Las Vegas, NV $890 15.60% $1,100 12.20% 61 Anchorage, AK $880 -1.10% $1,100 -8.30% 61 San Antonio, TX $880 7.30% $1,140 8.60% 63 Corpus Christi, TX $870 4.80% $1,050 5.00% 63 Louisville, KY $870 6.10% $980 11.40% 65 Baton Rouge, LA $860 0.00% $950 -4.00% 65 Omaha, NE $860 14.70% $1,020 12.10% 67 Cincinnati, OH $840 15.10% $1,080 14.90% 67 Syracuse, NY $840 15.10% $980 -2.00% 69 Rochester, NY $830 13.70% $980 15.30% 70 Laredo, TX $820 10.80% $970 15.50% 71 Reno, NV $810 14.10% $1,210 15.20% 72 Des Moines, IA $800 12.70% $840 3.70% 73 St Louis, MO $790 12.90% $1,110 11.00% 74 Arlington, TX $780 14.70% $1,040 11.80% 74 Chattanooga, TN $780 13.00% $820 9.30% 76 Glendale, AZ $770 5.50% $940 4.40% 76 Knoxville, TN $770 14.90% $910 13.80% 76 Norfolk, VA $770 11.60% $950 5.60% 79 Cleveland, OH $760 15.20% $840 15.10% 80 Augusta, GA $750 15.40% $810 6.60% 80 Bakersfield, CA $750 4.20% $900 5.90% 82 Lexington, KY $740 -7.50% $950 2.20% 83 Winston Salem, NC $730 7.40% $800 15.90% 84 Tallahassee, FL $720 14.30% $850 6.30% 85 Indianapolis, IN $710 14.50% $800 14.30% 86 Columbus, OH $700 2.90% $1,050 5.00% 86 Greensboro, NC $700 11.10% $810 0.00% 86 Spokane, WA $700 9.40% $900 7.10% 89 Memphis, TN $690 13.10% $750 15.40% 90 Oklahoma City, OK $670 11.70% $800 3.90% 91 Albuquerque, NM $640 6.70% $800 5.30% 91 Lincoln, NE $640 -5.90% $850 7.60% 91 Tucson, AZ $640 1.60% $850 2.40% 94 El Paso, TX $630 -1.60% $770 2.70% 94 Shreveport, LA $630 10.50% $680 4.60% 94 Wichita, KS $630 14.50% $720 10.80% 97 Akron, OH $610 15.10% $730 10.60% 97 Tulsa, OK $610 7.00% $750 2.70% 99 Lubbock, TX $600 5.30% $750 5.60% 100 Detroit, MI $590 11.30% $660 6.50%

Prices of houses and condos across the US surged 6.3% from a year earlier, according to the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. The index is now 6.7% above the crazy peak of “Housing Bubble 1” in July 2006 just before the hot air hissed out, and 47% above the bottom of “Housing Bust 1.” Everything spikes. Read… Update on the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in the US

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