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Since the Wind deal was announced in December (the transaction closed in March), Shaw has been upgrading Wind’s networks to LTE but hasn’t made major waves in the market when it comes to pricing or promotions.

But it could disrupt the market if it gets more competitive in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia, provinces where competition from a fourth carrier is muted and incumbents can make “excess profits,” Valentini and Cross wrote.

If it pushes for more market share, the TD analysts expect incumbents have to allow subscribers to defect to the company they’ve dubbed “Shwind” or lower prices and/or increase handset subsidies in order to retain and attract subscribers.

“It seems clear that incumbent wireless stocks would be worse off if Shwind becomes more aggressive,” they wrote.

The analysts lowered their long-term price targets based on estimates through to 2018 to reflect the downside risk of fewer subscribers and lower average revenue per user, an important industry metric. But they held their current price targets and ratings given the likelihood of slower action from Shaw.

Shaw is scheduled to release its quarterly and year-end results on Wednesday.