NATO commanders concede that spectacular attacks, like the one on the American Embassy, are “I.O. victories” — meaning information operation — said Gen. John R. Allen, commanding general for NATO forces in Afghanistan. They resist equating that with any larger gains, though privately some officers concede that the Taliban’s ability to switch cellphones off and on is another such victory.

Diplomats are hoping that the Taliban’s turn to more psychological methods could be a precursor to peace talks, but they also admit it could be a clever strategy to conserve their forces until the West withdraws more troops.

“We have hurt them, but I am not sure how much we’ve hurt them,” Ryan C. Crocker, the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, said in August. “And I’m not sure we’re going to know for a while how much we’ve hurt them.” This could “ultimately be positive,” Mr. Crocker said, citing the reasoning of Mr. Karzai. “This is what Karzai would describe as the Afghan Taliban: recognizing that their previous form of government did not win hearts and minds and they are shifting to deal with the population again, and actually that would bring them closer to a dialogue with the government.”

Others view it more as the Taliban’s positioning themselves to become the chief power in a number of areas of the country, once the bulk of NATO forces leave. A longtime Western observer of Taliban tactics said the insurgents “are moving into their own hold-and-build phase; they are prepositioning for 2014.”

Just about all NATO combat forces are scheduled for withdrawal by the end of 2014, leaving Afghan security forces in control. So far, the Afghans have demonstrated a limited ability to fight on their own. With that in mind, many Afghans are hedging their bets and keeping avenues open to the Taliban because they believe that the government may not protect them once NATO leaves.

Wardak Province, which borders Kabul, is one place that seems up for grabs. It is also where in much of the province the cellphones go down for 13 hours daily. The Taliban view the cutoffs as a line of defense, according to Taliban commanders and spokesmen. When the phones are off, informants cannot call in Taliban locations to American forces who might carry out raids, and the Americans cannot use listening devices to track the location of insurgents.

“Our main goal is to degrade the enemy’s capability in tracking down our mujahedeen,” said Zabiullah Mujahid, the Taliban’s spokesman for eastern and northern Afghanistan.