The final months of the 2014 primary season are going to be scrutinized like an encrypted National Security Agency tweet for hints of where the Republican Party is headed. If the tea party can build on its historic defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, pulling off a few more improbable victories in the year’s remaining contests, the populist, anti-establishment movement may be well on its way to electrifying the 2016 primary electorate and perhaps even installing its own presidential nominee. Looking at the choices ahead, the schism in the GOP could not be starker. Moderate establishment types are suddenly pining for Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee and former Massachusetts governor whose signature health program was the model for “Obamacare.” MSNBC host and former GOP Rep. Joe Scarborough has even called for a draft Romney movement. “This is the only person that can fill the stage,” he reportedly said at a donor summit convened by Romney in Park City, Utah. Tea party politicians and activists, meanwhile, are yearning for something completely different. As Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul put it at the Iowa state GOP convention, “There are people who say we need to be more moderate. I couldn’t disagree more.” But if the tea party wing of the GOP manages to nominate an ultraconservative along the lines of a Barry Goldwater, it will smack up against the reality that Americans don’t want the policies or tactics it is selling.

Unpopular populists

While the Cantor defeat has triggered excitement (and hopes of a domino effect) in the populist right wing, most polls show that fewer than 3 in 10 Americans support or identify with the tea party movement. In Congress and on the 2014 campaign trail, tea party politicians are promoting ideas that are divisive or plain unpopular, including a hard line against taxes and immigration reform, outrage over alleged violations of constitutional rights (from gun control to NSA spying), spending so diminished that it would penalize constituents and a willingness to risk government shutdowns and debt default in futile fights to repeal “Obamacare” and avoid raising the debt limit. Signs for the movement are thus mixed. Yes, tea party populist and economics professor David Brat pulled off a shocking, underfunded upset in Cantor’s suburban Richmond, Virginia, district. On the other hand, House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy of California — less conservative than Cantor by many measures — is the favorite to succeed Cantor as majority leader in a secret-ballot vote Thursday. At one point he was unopposed, leading RedState.com editor Erick Erickson to write, in a post headlined “The stupid party,” “House Republicans looked on the biggest electoral surprise of the year and are giving it the middle finger.” Then Idaho Rep. Raul Labrador jumped into the race late as a tea party torchbearer, complete with a grass-roots campaign organized by the Washington-based conservative lobbying group FreedomWorks. Referring to the Cantor rout, Labrador said, “The message from Tuesday is clear — Americans are looking for a change in the status quo.”

If Cantor’s ouster leads to a 2016 nominee who is tea-party-anointed, the movement will be put to the ultimate test — and will be all but certain to fail.

The message spelled out by Cantor’s defeat, however, seemed awfully specific to his district. Cantor was ambitious, Washington-oriented and out of touch with his constituents. They were the ones who wanted a change. As for the larger picture, even Republicans are divided over the type of change the tea party would bring. As I wrote at the Brookings Institution’s FixGov blog, the overall win-loss record for tea party primary candidates this year is weak. Establishment candidates, on the other hand, have in most cases been strong enough and conservative enough to prevail, some with support from the Chamber of Commerce and other groups. In lower-profile House primaries without incumbents, only 16 tea party candidates have won so far, while 81 have lost.

Consequences of the edge