Races for Bishop, Trott seats too close to call, say new polls

Todd Spangler | Detroit Free Press

WASHINGTON – New polls of voters in two key Michigan congressional races where Democrats hope to flip seats held by Republicans show the outcome too close to call three weeks out from the Nov. 6 election.

Ed Sarpolus of Target Insyght in Lansing released polls done this week for the Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS) and FOX 2 Detroit in Michigan's 8th and 11th Congressional Districts, two suburban Detroit districts where Democratic challengers are looking to win.

The polls, which consisted of automated calls to 500 homes and cellphones, suggest the races aren't decided, with U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop, R-Rochester, slightly ahead of former Defense Department official Elissa Slotkin by 3 percentage points — 48 percent to 45 percent — but well within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

That means that Bishop could be up by more in the Republican-leaning 8th District — which stretches from northern Oakland County west to Lansing — or be trailing Slotkin or anything in between. The survey is in line with a New York Times survey that showed Bishop with a 47 percent to 44 percent lead. That, too, however, was within its margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

Taken together, it may mean this race is still too close to call, which is in line with handicappers' assessments that it is a toss-up likely to be determined by turnout.

Meanwhile, Sarpolus' poll in the 11th Congressional District race between Democrat Haley Stevens, who worked with former President Barack Obama's auto task force, and Republican businesswoman Lena Epstein, shows a dead heat — both tied at 48 percent. That district covers parts of Oakland and western Wayne counties.

That poll also has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. But it is further out of line with what little public polling has been done in the race following the August primary: The New York Times poll, done Oct. 1-6, showed Stevens up by 7 percentage points — 45 percent to 38 percent — with a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

Read more:

Bishop v. Slotkin: Why this may be a great congressional race to watch

Dems look ready to flip U.S. Rep. Dave Trott's suburban Detroit district

Most handicappers, too, consider Stevens ahead somewhat in the 11th District race to succeed U.S. Rep. Dave Trott, R-Birmingham, who is stepping down at the end of this term. This district, like the 8th District, was won by President Donald Trump in 2016.

While some other polling has been done in both races, the Free Press generally only reports on public polls, not those done by the parties.

The Target-Insyght poll comes at a time when nationally, some pundits believe Republican enthusiasm is up following the confirmation fight over new Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Where a statewide poll in September done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing showed 59 percent of Michiganders to have a negative view of Trump's job performance, compared with 39 percent who had a positive view, this new poll showed a majority of people in both the 8th and 11th Districts — 52 percent and 51 percent, respectively — who thought Trump was doing a good or excellent job.

Sarpolus also told the Free Press that it appeared that engagement among younger, Republican-supporting men was up in the polls and their level of engagement could help determine the election's outcome.

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.