Assuming that it is not certain whether banks and BR’s will dodge arcs, wedge can really only be sure of 2 options:

Option 1: Wedge attempts to block a 4k, He either blocks the 4k and wins, or fenn does a 2 forward + focus and gets a r1 modded shot without wedge getting to shoot back. Assuming that fenn will definitely kill wedge if he gets a r1 shot (which is not true, odds are at 85%, or 99% with focus, but lets assume 100% just for the calculations), then wedge has a 50% chance of winning if he attempts to block the 4k, and 50% chance of losing.

Option 2: Wedge does a 1 forward + focus, he either blocks fenn’s 2 forward and wins, or fenn does a 4k and gets a range 1 shot on wedge (with no mods for fen), AFTER wedge has already had a range 1 shot on fen with mods. This gives wedge a 50% chance of winning if he fenn dialed in a 2 straight, and roughly 32% chance of killing fenn (Calculations here) if fen ndid a 4k. Overall it means Wedge has a 66% chance of winning and a 34% chance of losing when he does a 1 forward + focus.

Clearly the best option in the zig vs zag scenario is the one where wedge gets to shoot, because if wedge called it wrong, he still has a chance to win by killing fenn in simultaneous fire.

Knowing this, the best move for wedge is ALWAYS the 1 forward. It is also strengthened by fenn’s winning statistics which say his best statistical chance of winning (50%) is if he does the 2 straight. Allowing fenn to complete the 2 straight without bumping is the absolute best for fenn which means it is the absolute worst for wedge. This means the best thing for wedge to do is ALWAYS block the 2 straight, and bank on that 66%% chance of winning. This the best move regardless of anything fenn does.

It is wrong for wedge to say “well if the best move for me is blocking fenn’s 2 straight, then he will know this and he will do a 4k instead, so I should block the 4k“. In doing this you are reducing your 66% change of winning down to 50%. You will literally be throwing away your statistical advantage to take a gamble on guessing your opponents dial. The best move for wedge in every situation is blocking that 2 straight.

Fenn is in a bit more of a difficult strategic position. By the calculations above fenn has a 50% chance of winning if he does a 2 forward and a 34% chance of winning if he does a 4k. This would seem that doing the 2 forward is the best move, but this is wrong. Because blocking the 2 forwards is the absolute best move for Wedge, it means it is the absolute worst move for fenn. Now you can’t guarantee that wedge will block the 2 straight. If fenn lands the 4k, he has a 68% chance of winning and if fenn lands the 2 straight he has 100% chance of winning. However, knowing what has already been said above, the probability of wedge doing a 1 forward *should* be more than 50% which makes dialing in that 2 straight on fenn’s dial VERY risky.

Now if fenn dials in the 4k, and wedge blocks the 4k, you may be absolutely livid and think “obviously the 2 forward was the best move, i would have won the game”. This sentiment is also wrong. You didn’t lose because you chose the wrong move, you lost because your opponent threw away their statistical advantage to gamble on a 50/50 and they won.

And please don’t comment onto this saying “well if the best move for fenn is the 4k no matter what, then wedge should block the 4k for a 100% chance of winning”. Because its not guaranteed he will dial a 4k, and if you are wrong you are dead.