More common when the economy is down University of Cambridge/PA Wire

Gun violence at US schools peaks during periods of high unemployment, according to a study that looked at the link between shootings and economic insecurity.

The root causes of the US’s gun violence problem are difficult to unpick. Federal funding for research on gun violence has effectively been banned since 1996. Research on the issue is also hampered by a lack of comprehensive data sources.

For this study, the researchers drew on six datasets to compile a list of 381 shootings at US schools and universities from 1990 to 2013. Any shootings on school premises – including accidental shots – that involved staff or students as perpetrators, victims or bystanders were included.


The highest rates of school shootings occurred during two periods in the data: 1992-1994 and 2007-2013, and coincided with periods of increased unemployment. Gun violence was also correlated with two other economic metrics: low consumer confidence and the foreclosure rate – the frequency of homeowners failing to keep up their mortgage payments.

Disappointment and despair

“Our study indicates that increases in gun violence in our schools can result from disappointment and despair during periods of increased unemployment, when getting an education does not necessarily lead to finding work,” said John Hagan at Northwestern University in Chicago, Illinois.

The study also found that most shootings are targeted; that is, the shooter intended to harm a specific person. On average, one person is killed in each incident, and 6.3 per cent of incidents involved three or more deaths. Gun violence at schools has not become more deadly over time. Gang-related violence accounted for 6.6 per cent of the incidents.

Around two thirds of events were at schools in urban areas, mirroring the population distribution of the US. The cities with the highest rates of school shootings were New York, Detroit, Chicago, Memphis, Los Angeles and Houston.

While the peak in shootings in the early 1990s occurred mostly at primary and secondary schools, recent years have seen more shootings in university and college settings. Poor job prospects or job loss among family members might increase feelings of isolation and failure, say the researchers.

Journal reference: Nature Human Behaviour, DOI: 10.1038/s41562-016-0040

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