That, in theory, should have been it for Senator Singh's political career. Lisa Singh during Senate Estimates. Credit:Andrew Meares But a quirk of maths thrown up by this election, and an insurgent campaign led by disillusioned Labor supporters, has created a highly unusual situation. Election experts say she could be returned to Canberra despite factional powerbrokers trying to push her out. In 2010, Senator Singh received 9132 first preferences below the line – 2.76 per cent of the vote. It was the third-highest personal vote in the state. In this double dissolution poll, as Tasmania's small population elects 12 Senators, about 26,000 votes should be enough for a quota.

Analysts say even a small bump in Senator Singh's personal vote of 2000 or 3000 could be enough to push her ahead of other Labor candidates if – and it is a significant if – other votes and preferences fall the right way. The ABC's Antony Green says: "If she gets 3 or 4 per cent of the vote and that puts her ahead of candidates above her, she could cause quite an upset." Tasmanian polling analyst Kevin Bonham agrees. "I'd say it is possible, and if it is going to happen Tasmania is the place where it is going to happen." If a well-connected band of people calling itself the Re-Elect Lisa Group is right, it won't matter where other votes fall. Convened by crown prosecutor and former ALP Hobart branch secretary Tony Jacobs, and backed by ex-parliamentarians including Hawke government minister Margaret Reynolds, it is placing newspaper ads and letter-boxing pamphlets calling for a vote for Senator Singh below the line.

Mr Jacobs – who stresses he has deliberately never met the Senator "so she can't be blamed for anything I do or say" – says there is unhappiness about pre-selection in Tasmania that extends across the political aisle. "I've been amazed at the response. I would give Lisa a 90 per cent chance of being re-elected," he says. "She has obviously done a very good and energetic job, and has been displaced to the bottom of ticket by a bunch of union non-entities." A similar campaign has coalesced behind Liberal senator Richard Colbeck, the only Tasmanian member of the Turnbull ministry, who was relegated to fifth on his party's ticket – a winnable, but not guaranteed, position – after being outmanoeuvred by the conservative wing of the party led by Eric Abetz. Mr Jacobs says: "I know a lot of people who are going to vote 1 Singh and 2 Colbeck. I'm sure a lot of other people will go 1 Colbeck and 2 Singh."

Senator Singh's profile comes, in part, from having pressed her party over its position on asylum seekers and global warming. She has called for refugees on Manus Island to be processed and settled in Australia and – as the opposition parliamentary secretary for the environment, climate change and water – an end to fossil fuels subsidies for the mining industry. She says she is campaigning hard on Labor issues to get as many senators elected as possible "whatever order that comes out in". The 44-year-old came in a winnable third position in a vote of rank-and-file members for the Senate ticket last year, but was demoted to fourth behind union official John Short after a faction-controlled weighting was added. She was pushed to sixth for the double dissolution when the party's state executive slotted in two sitting senators, Carol Brown and Catryna Bilyk, above her, without reference to the party membership. Despite her supporters' optimism, Senator Singh says it will be difficult for her to get back. Most Tasmanians are still likely to vote above the line despite changes that make it easier to vote below it. But she says, whatever the result, it should spark a discussion about reform within her party. "You could say I've been naive, but if you are in the shadow ministry, you're a former [state] minister, you're in your first term, you're the youngest senator in the entire state, the only person of south-Asian heritage in the entire Australian Parliament, you're female and you're effective in your role – was it naive not to think a party would reflect on those things and think we don't want to lose one of our strongest team members?