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Looking farther a field, the Bank of Canada is forecasting economic growth of 2.5% for both this year and in 2015.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, in his Feb. 11 budget, was less optimistic, predicting a 2.3% rise in 2014 but matching the bank’s 2.5% estimate for next year — when the Conservative government has promised to eliminate its budget deficit.

Statistics Canada said Friday that the last month of 2013 produced a negative reading, down 0.5% — the biggest declined since March 2009 when the economy contracted by 0.7% — and followed five straight monthly increases.

The Ottawa-based agency said much of the December contraction reflected the impact of a harsh winter on retail sales, which resulted in a 2.1% drop in the sector. That was the weakest performance since June, when there was a 1.2% decline during the Alberta floods and theQuebec labour disruption.

“We normally look to December GDP by industry data to get a sense of what to expect for GDP in the coming quarter,” said Sonya Gulati, senior economist at TD Economics.

“Inclement weather will negatively depress the Q1 performance. What’s more, the large stockpile of inventories will need to be depleted eventually, thereby limiting the rate of expansion,” she said.

“[But] if we step back from this quarterly perspective, the economic themes — both here and abroad — playing out indicate that 2014 is shaping up to be better than 2013.”

There’s no doubt, for Canada, it’s still a matter of waiting for the U.S. engine to gather more momentum. For now, growth there appears to be slowing, with GDP at a pace of 2.4% in the fourth quarter, down from a previous estimate of 3.2%.

“The combination of inclement weather and a likely reduction in inventories sets up for the pace of growth to temporarily slow in the firstquarter,” said Dawn Desjardins, at RBC Economics.

“That said, government spending is likely to recover from Q4’s [partial government] shutdown-related drop, while the solid momentum in consumer spending is likely to be maintained,” she said.

“The weather impact will be most visible in residential and nonresidential construction activity which we expect will be weak in the first quarter.”