Last time, we sketched a future of blockchain-based government apparatuses running with much higher efficiency but lower cost, which I don’t expect to see come soon.

Truly, it has never been easy to bring down the ruling class, not just because its authority is heavily secured by strong watchdogs, but also thanks to the non-political privileged stratum, which is tightly bonded to the top of the power hierarchy and would do everything to defend its vested interest.

Blockchain technology, however, was born against all types of centralization — power is undisputedly the most classic case.

Thus, it makes better sense to interpret mass adoption as commercial adoption of the technology. This is especially true in developing economies like China, where the market usually emphasizes on tangible achievements such as sustainable growth and profitability. Less utopian but more practicable.

According to a PwC analysis, in terms of the general leadership in the blockchain area, the United States has so far established a clear lead as of end-2018. However, the consulting firm is strongly convinced that China, the runner-up, will be catching up fast and will alter the situation over the coming five years.

If we are envisaging a competition over pure technology, market openness or regulatory activeness between the world’s largest two economies, I’d call it a very close game. If, however, it is a fight for the crown of best commercial adoption, China is a country with a 1.4 billion population.

I am not saying that nothing else matters to make a killing blockchain application.

For starters, as Lei Jun — Xiaomi’s founder and Chinese billionaire — used to say “even a pig can fly if it stands at the center of a whirlwind”. Marking the vertical most likely to be the next eye of the wind is critical.

Secondly, solid technology is no less important. It’s impossible to maintain strong user stickiness in the case of frequent webpage crashes or forced terminations, no matter how cool the application was in the beginning.

Thirdly, the user base should be strong enough the support scale economy, as it often fits in the large volume slim margin model to monetize the internet traffic.

So, what might be the next big deal in China’s new generation internet battlefield? Several of my friends put their money on the place “closest to the money”- payment it is.

Research entity iiMedia’s latest “2017–2018” China Third-Party Mobile Payment Market Report read that, in 2017, the country’s mobile payment volume topped RMB 202 trillion, while GDP of the year stood at $12.24 trillion, or RMB 82.1 trillion.

And, wait for it, the online payment figure was RMB 2075 trillion. Boom!

But please don’t get excited too soon.

No one would deny China’s pole position in terms of the potential adoption of blockchain into online — especially mobile payment.

The roadmap could be traced back to a decade and a half ago, when Alipay was launched in 2004. WeChat Pay is much younger, but no less sophisticated in either technology or business model.

Thanks to these two big players, with the almost inexhaustible resource in hand, they significantly contribute to China’s progress towards a cashless society that has impressed the whole world.

However, the two Mr. Ma’s (Alibaba’s Jack Ma and Tencent’s Pony Ma) together have taken over 90% of China’s third-party mobile payment market share — 49.9% and 40.7% respectively — and I bet they’d be very happy to see someone covet their cheese.

Does it mean it’s a total daydream for a blockchain player targeting this arena? Not necessary.

It may sound cliché, but technology is truly neutral. Why would Alibaba and Tencent turn down the opportunity to equip itself with advanced technology for expansion?

So, there seems to be a few options: a) establishing blockchain-based payment methods from scratch b) proposing Tencent with a cutting-edge technology to fill the 10% market share gap between itself and Ali Pay c) proposing Alibaba with a solid technology to take over the other half of the market d) fighting both Tencent and Alibaba for the current 10% remainder of the market.

In addition to being careful about stepping on giants’ toes, there are other red zones we don’t want to enter into.

That is China’s regulatory minefield, obviously — to be continued.