Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 864 electors in July 2016. Of all electors surveyed 7.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.

During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.

However, support for the National partners was down slightly with the Maori Party down 1.5% to 0.5%, Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%). Of parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 0.5% (down 0.5%).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July with 57.5% (up 3%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (down 3.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows a huge gain in support for the Key Government in July – up 10% to 53%. This is the highest support for National in over a year – since May 2015. National has gained support from across the political spectrum with Labour falling 2.5% to 25.5%, The Greens falling 3% to 11.5%, NZ First down 2% to 9% and also governing partners the Maori Party down 1.5% to 0.5% - their lowest level of support all year. “In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July. The large jump in support comes immediately after Prime Minister John Key announced a $1 billion housing infrastructure reserve in early July. The infrastructure reserve will fund the construction of tens of thousands of new homes in high growth centres including Auckland, Christchurch, Queenstown and Tauranga. The funding will provide interest free loans to councils to help build new roads and other infrastructure needed to support new housing in these important growth centres. “Housing affordability and the shortage of housing is one of the key issues mentioned by New Zealanders when asked about the most important problems facing New Zealand (mentioned by 9% of New Zealanders in April 2016) as shown by the last ‘Most Important Problems facing New Zealand’ release available here.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 864 electors in July 2016. Of all electors surveyed 7.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.









For further information:

Contact Office Mobile Gary Morgan: +61 3 9224 5213 +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: +61 3 9224 5215 +61 411 129 093





Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.