Bitcoin (BTC) likely reached its low when it hit $3,700 earlier this month, veteran trader Tone Vays has forecast as markets remain up 70%.

In the latest episode of his Trading Bitcoin YouTube series on March 29, Vays repeated his previous claim that, logically, BTC/USD should bottom at 20% of its 2019 highs — $2,800.

Vays on $2.8K: “I don’t think it’s likely anymore”

This could occur before May’s block reward halving and not endanger Bitcoin’s long-term perspective, he said, but a dive after that event could have grave consequences.

After March 12, when BTC/USD bounced off 15-month lows of around $3,700, Vays now thinks that Bitcoin will not return to put in lower levels.

“I don’t think it’s likely anymore,” he summarized.

“Because I think this incident, this event earlier this month was close enough $2,800 that I’m no longer expecting $2,800.”

Bitcoin Price 1-year chart showing dip to 70% of highs. Source: Coin360

BitMEX crash limited Bitcoin price losses

Since the bounce, Bitcoin has broadly maintained higher support, with the recovery reaching almost 90% in the subsequent two weeks.

Continuing, Vays suggested that in fact, $2,800 would have appeared during the dive and that it was only the crashing of derivatives giant BitMEX which prevented it.

“If BitMEX did not go down, we probably would have $2,800 and maybe even lower,” he said.

“It’s very possible that if BitMEX didn’t crash, the selling would have just accelerated, but right now, I’m under the assumption that the low is in.”

At the time, BitMEX itself denied that it played a role in facilitating a wave of sell-offs which only ended when it went offline.