Former PM tells Alliance Defending Freedom the marriage equality campaign has mobilised the right

Tony Abbott has criticised Malcolm Turnbull’s cabinet for refusing to campaign against marriage equality and warned that the Australian Conservatives, led by Cory Bernardi, will be the beneficiary of new “activated” conservative campaigners.

In a speech delivered in New York to the anti-gay Alliance Defending Freedom group, which is classed as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Centre, Abbott has claimed that a 40% no vote in the marriage law postal survey would be a “moral victory”.

Abbott claimed that polling for the no campaign showed that support for marriage equality had fallen to about 50%, with about 40% opposed and 10% undecided.

The former prime minister said the no campaign was a “nucleus of an organisation” that could represent 40% of Australians and become a counterweight to the progressive campaign organisation GetUp.

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“Such robust characters, once activated, are unlikely to fade away; and could continue to make their presence felt, even after marriage is no longer an issue, because they’ve had the guts to campaign for a cause they believe in,” he said.

Abbott noted that marriage equality was supported by both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, 60 large businesses and “most of the major sporting codes”.

Conservative campaigners would “understandably be wondering who and what might represent them in the years ahead” because “no cabinet minister, not one, in the centre-right government [was] prepared to campaign with them”.

A host of Turnbull government ministers have campaigned for the no side, including Zed Seselja, but campaigning by cabinet members has been more muted, with conservatives including Peter Dutton limiting their activities to warning about the need to protect religious freedom and Matt Canavan conducting most of his activities while he had stood down from cabinet.

Abbott suggested that despite the weight of public opinion polling suggesting the yes campaign is on track for victory, the result could “swing either way” because people have been reluctant to identify as no voters in polls.

“Win, lose, or draw, though, starting from scratch two months ago, the campaign for marriage in my country has mobilised thousands of new activists; and created a network that could be deployed to defend western civilisation more broadly and the Judeo-Christian ethic against all that’s been undermining it,’’ he said.

“So far, the campaign to defend marriage in Australia has raised over $6m from more than 20,000 separate donors, and fielded more than 5,000 volunteers to doorknock and phone canvass.”

Abbott warned the lack of conservative representation in the Liberal party would mean in the short term that “the embryonic Australian Conservatives, the only national political party whose leader backed marriage as it’s ­always been” would be the beneficiary of the new conservative movement.

The Australian Conservatives is one of 80 groups that make up the no campaign’s Coalition for Marriage. In August its federal leader, Cory Bernardi, told Guardian Australia it was good the marriage campaign had resulted in “a coordinated perspective on the conservative side of politics”.

Asked how campaign infrastructure, such as a volunteer list, should be put to use after the campaign, Bernardi said: “There’s strength in numbers, in being able to communicate with people of a like mind for any lobbying organisation.”

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Abbott suggested in the medium term conservative activists would help oppose “the long march of the left through our institutions” and stand up for pro-market socially conservative beliefs. “If you don’t believe, you won’t fight; and if you don’t fight, you can’t win,” he said.

He said conservative activists should organise counter-rallies against progressive protests, reject “identity politics” and support the values of “centre-right party MPs [which] can no longer be assumed and often need to be buttressed”.

Abbott warned the Victorian government was preparing to give “doctors the right to kill some patients”, which may become a prototype for voluntary assisted dying laws nationally.

In a speech on Wednesday to the Victorian Community Law LGBTI Forum, the Labor leader in the Senate, Penny Wong, said the marriage equality postal survey had “just about run its course”.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will count votes received by 7 November before announcing the results on 15 November.

Wong said Australians had “seen the best and worst of our country” including a campaign of “hate and misinformation” that had been predicted by pro-marriage equality parties who opposed the survey.

She took aim at the decision of the Sydney Anglican church to donate $1m to the no campaign, describing it as “mystifying” why it had made the donation rather than spend it on the services provided by charity Anglicare.

“I agree with Anglicare South Australia’s Peter Sandeman, who says, ‘Where there is money to be spent the focus should be on ensuring those who are most vulnerable have the care, support and voice they need to build a better life,’” she said, citing Jesus’s example in Matthew chapter 25 verses 31 to 46.