The Leafs have been among the top of the league for the entirety of this season and are bound to make the playoffs. Right now, according to moneypuck.com, they have a 95.01% chance to make the postseason. For the most part, this team has been what we’ve expected of them and some. Although they’ve been on a little bit of a slide, they’re still on pace for over 110 points in what is arguably the toughest division in the NHL (Toronto, Boston, Tampa, Montreal and Buffalo all have more than 50 points).

Due to the strength within their division, the Leafs won’t be able to skip over some difficult matchups when it comes to playoff time. Both the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning are destined to find their way into the playoffs which makes for at least one very tough matchup for the Leafs. A team with such high expectations will certainly be looking to make the jump from a great team to contenders and will need to overcome past playoff woes to do so.

In the past week, we’ve seen the Leafs play the Bruins and Lightning which gives a little bit of what is likely to come in April and May. So, the question is: who is the better playoff matchup, Boston or Tampa?

Is It Boston?

In terms of today’s NHL, the Big Bad Bruins live up to their name. While they do have a lot of talented skill guys, they’re still one of the grittier teams in the league. When it comes to size, they have six guys over 6’2 and 210 lbs. Even the guys who aren’t the biggest (Marchand, David Krejci and Noel Acciari) are always doing the dirty work and getting under guy’s skin. Just look at their penalty mins per game (2nd most in the league). Unfortunately, the Leafs don’t play that brand of hockey. They aren’t the biggest and are far from the toughest and when they try to rely on physicality, they generally don’t succeed. Five guys are over 210 lbs and the guys who are don’t generally throw their body around the way they maybe should.

In the four games played against Boston, the Leafs have a 1-3 record despite outplaying or playing them evenly for three of the four. According to Stattrick.com, in these four games the Leafs were able to get 31, 36, 33 and 28 (128 total) scoring chances and 10, 15, 16 and 20 (61 total) high danger chances. Boston, on the other hand, was able to get 32, 42, 29 and 20 (123 total) and 8, 20, 12 and 9 (49 total) high danger chances.

Here are the shot charts for the four games:

Nov 10