By 2030, there will 72 million seniors in U.S.

As the U.S. population ages, the increasing prevalence of chronic disease and complex medical conditions could have a negative effect on the future health care system, according to the findings published in the November issue of the medical journal Health Affairs.

The researchers, led by Timothy M. Dall, the managing director for health care at Washington, D.C. consulting firm IHS Inc., projected future prevalence of selected diseases and health risk factors to model future demand for health care services.

“Based on changing demographic characteristics and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act, we project that the demand for adult primary care services will grow by approximately 14 percent between 2013 and 2025,” the study reads. Vascular surgery has the highest projected demand growth at 31 percent. Cardiology follows at 20 percent. The demand for neurological surgery, radiology and general surgery is projected to grow 18 percent.

The researchers cautioned that market indicators like long wait times to obtain appointments suggest that the current supply of medical specialists is inadequate to meet demand.

“Failure to train sufficient numbers and the correct mix of specialists could exacerbate already long wait times for appointments, reduce access to care for some of the nation’s most vulnerable patients, and reduce patients’ quality of life,” according to the study. Researchers conclude that there must be a specialized health care workforce by 2025 to meet demand.

In a recent interview with Newshour, Dall spoke about what the U.S. health care system may look like for seniors in 2025. “Right now, there is a lot of emphasis placed on training primary care physicians, which is a good thing. But there’s less emphasis on training specialists,” he said. “If we don’t train enough specialists, the wait times will increase and people will not receive care from health professionals who are trained to provide that specialized care.”

As advances in medical technologies help seniors live longer than ever, the Department of Health and Human Services projects that by 2030, there will be about 72 million Americans 65 and older- more than twice their number in 2000. Americans 65 and older will likely represent about 20 percent of the total U.S. population in less than 20 years.