Donald Trump has handed Vladimir Putin a free gift in Syria by forcing the Kurds to strike a deal with Bashar al-Assad’s regime to hand over Manbij, Kobane and other areas along the border to the Syrian army in their final push to survive Erdogan’s assault.

Yes, this was the deal from the beginning. Trump, in allowing the Turkish incursion was, in reality, clearing a path for Assad and Russia to regain control over northeast Syria.

Despite his constant blabber about Obama’s failures in Syria, Trump has just echoed his policy. Obama looked the other way when Russia decided in 2015 to fully intervene and crush the opposition. Trump has effectively granted a licence to Russia to finish the Kurds (using a Turkish enforcer) in 2019.

Whether you like it or not, Russia is taking the stage in the Middle East as the sole interlocutor in disputes, the guarantor for those desperate for protection. It wants to be seen as an honest deal broker, and the future flagship for stability in Syria. Trump has helpfully shepherded Putin towards this goal.

The US president’s “sand and death” doctrine on Syria pulled the plug on any western involvement and dovetailed neatly with Putin’s long-term objective of knocking out the Americans and Europeans. Under the Syrian peace process discussed in Astana, Russia forced the UN to back Putin’s promoted Syrian Constitutional Committee last month, his first step towards a peaceful resolution.

Turkey launches offensive into Syria Show all 25 1 /25 Turkey launches offensive into Syria Turkey launches offensive into Syria Turkish soldiers with armored vehicles EPA Turkey launches offensive into Syria A woman flees with her children during Turkish bombardment on Syria's northeastern town of Ras al-Ain AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Smoke billows following Turkish bombardment on Syria's northeastern town of Ras al-Ain in the Hasakeh province along the Turkish border on October 9, 2019. - Turkey launched an assault on Kurdish forces in northern Syria with air strikes and explosions reported along the border. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the start of the attack on Twitter, labelling it "Operation Peace Spring". (Photo by Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP) (Photo by DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty Images) DELIL SOULEIMAN AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria The first group of Turkish infantry prepare to enter Syria on the border Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Civilians flee AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Smoke billows from targets inside Syria AP Turkey launches offensive into Syria Turkish armoured vehicles enter Syria in Akcakale Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Civilians leave as smoke rises from Ras al-Ain AFP Turkey launches offensive into Syria A multi-rocket launcher fires in an unknown location Turkish Defence Ministry via Reuters Turkey launches offensive into Syria People wave as Turkish soldiers prepare to cross the border Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Girls stand together in Ras al Ain town Reuters Turkey launches offensive into Syria A woman walks as smoke billows following Turkish bombardment in Syria's northeastern town of Ras al-Ain AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria A Turkish army's tank drives down from a truck towards the border with Syria AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Turkish jet taxis on tarmac after returning to a military base in southeast Diyarbakir Reuters Turkey launches offensive into Syria A Turkish armored vehicle drives down a road during a military operation in Kurdish areas of northern Syria EPA Turkey launches offensive into Syria People sit on belongings at a back of a truck as they flee Ras al Ain town Reuters Turkey launches offensive into Syria Turkey-backed Syrian opposition fighters enter Tel Abyad AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Civilians flee AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria People flee Tal Abyad North Press Agency/Reuters TV Turkey launches offensive into Syria People wave as Turkish soldiers prepare to cross the border into Syria Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Civilians flee with their belongings AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Civilians flee during Turkish bombardment on Syria's northeastern town of Ras al-Ain in the Hasakeh province along the Turkish border on October 9, 2019. - Turkey launched a broad assault on Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria today, with intensive bombardment paving the way for an invasion made possible by the withdrawal of US troops. (Photo by Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP) (Photo by DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty Images) DELIL SOULEIMAN AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, speaks with Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, left, as they watch the operation by Turkish forces in Kurdish areas EPA Turkey launches offensive into Syria Smoke rises from the Syrian town of Tal Abyad AFP/Getty Turkey launches offensive into Syria Turkey-backed members of Syrian National Army prepare for moving to Turkey with heavy armed vehicles EPA

Thus the Kurdish dream to establish an autonomous region on the border with Turkey is done for good, as is the Syrian opposition. Meanwhile, Turkey will bear the brunt of a rejuvenated Isis, Assad still has a long way to go in Idlib fighting al-Qaeda affiliates and as it deals with the humanitarian crisis throughout the country.

The only true winner is Russia.

From its new position of strength, Russia can guarantee contracts of exclusive access to the oil-rich area in northeast Syria, and holds sway over a large launch pad for influence across the whole Middle East and Africa. Russia is already involved in propping up General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, and still pushing for establishing military bases in Egypt.

Trump has left even his voters utterly baffled. If the pullback of 1,000 soldiers from Syria has anything to do with his campaign promises to “bring our troops home”, why did he decide last week to send almost 3,000 extra troops to Saudi Arabia? Of course, the Kurds have no cash to pay.

The attack on the Saudi oil facility of Abqaiq, the drawdown of US troops from Syria, Turkey’s incursion into northeast Syria, and President Putin’s visit to the Gulf today mark a rapid transformation away from the post-second world war American hegemony.

Russia still has a long way to go to present a real alternative to the US, but it does appear to be sprinting in this direction.

GCC countries seem to be so frustrated that they have steadily become willing to grant Russia a fresh and clear mandate in the Gulf. For them, the message behind Trump’s betrayal of the Kurds in Syria was clear: the US has no consistent or coherent strategy of containment against Iran’s influence in the region, and has no desire to protect its allies. This is despite huge Gulf payments being funnelled into the American economy.

Trump showed great reluctance to go beyond economic sanctions in his tentative moves towards Iran, even though he kept up the bogeyman rhetoric, most likely in the hope he would keep the flow of cash rolling. Now though, he has made way for the Turks to proceed with what many believe to be the kickoff in a future permanent settlement in Syria under Russia’s terms, and with Iran’s consent.

Putin has already offered the Saudis the S-400 anti-aircraft system to protect themselves against the drones and ballistic missiles attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

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The Saudis and Emiratis once saw Trump as a historical opportunity to curb regional rivals in the region, but they are now having a change of heart. Putin’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE is a delicate strategic calculation from those two wealthy countries, which reflects their great anxiety towards the likelihood of having to deal with an erratic Trump (if he is to win in 2020) for the next five years.

It may even be that Putin’s advance in the Middle East also delivers an opportunity in Ukraine, where the new president will be infuriated to be dragged into a US impeachment inquiry. Russia is searching in the ruins of that crisis for a way to secure leverage over its western neighbour. That may yet come to pass, but what is certain is that the new reality in Syria pushes Turkey much closer to Russia, and away from the volatile western powers who have been bashing Erdogan since the start of his operation.