Next year’s provincial election is shaping up as a race that is too close to call, a new poll suggests.

The Campaign Research survey shows Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown’s long-held advantage is shrinking, Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne is a drag on her party, and Andrea Horwath remains personally more popular than her third-place New Democrats.

“Really, it’s anyone’s race; it’s that competitive,” Campaign Research CEO Eli Yufest said Friday.

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The Tories are at 36 per cent, the Liberals are at 32 per cent, the NDP is at 25 per cent and the Greens, led by Mike Schreiner, are at 7 per cent.

Using an online panel of 1,347 Ontario voters, Campaign Research polled between Sunday and Wednesday. A probability sample of that size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 out of 20 times.

In last month’s tracking poll, the Tories were at 38 per cent, the Liberals 33 per cent, the NDP 23 per cent, and the Greens at 6 per cent.

“It’s not a significant difference (month over month), but it’s certainly, directionally, becoming closer,” said Yufest, adding the results suggest Ontario could be headed toward a minority government.

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But it is unclear which leader would be at the helm.

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“If I were counselling Kathleen Wynne, I would tell her, ‘Don’t talk about (yourself). Don’t show up to too many events. Just let the party brand carry the day,’ ” he said.

Wynne’s personal approval ratings are the lowest of the three major party leaders: She had 19 per cent approval, 64 per cent disapproval and 17 per cent weren’t sure.

Last month, she had 19 per cent approval, 67 per cent disapproval, and 14 per cent didn’t know.

Brown had 25 per cent approval, 25 per cent disapproval, and 50 per cent weren’t sure.

In September, he had 28 per cent approval, 22 per cent disapproval and 50 per cent didn’t know.

Horwath was at 35 per cent approval, 17 per cent disapproval and 48 per cent weren’t sure.

A month ago, she had 37 per cent approval, 19 per cent disapproval, and 43 per cent had no opinion.

“It tells us that Patrick Brown continues to fail to resonate among the electorate. It tells us that the Liberal party brand is far outperforming Wynne’s. And it tells us that Andrea Horwath’s personal numbers continue to... outperform the NDP,” said Yufest.

Just as the Liberal name appears to be propping up Wynne, the New Democratic Party brand seems to hold back Horwath.

“She is quite popular among the electorate, but the NDP brand probably has some bad equity from past governments of the NDP,” he said, referring to the party’s challenging years in power from 1990 to 1995.

The pollster noted that the Tories should be wary of third-party advocacy groups, such as the Working Families coalition of unions and the new labour-sponsored Working Ontario Women organization, which are now revving up pre-election advertising blitzes.

“If I were counselling Patrick Brown on this, I would be telling him, ‘You probably should be worried, because we know, in the past these campaigns have been very effective at branding former party leaders and the party in general,’ ” he said.

The Tories have been trying to inoculate themselves against those attacks through a two-pronged multimillion-dollar ad campaign that introduces Brown to voters and derides Wynne’s Liberals as “politically corrupt.”

They could also be helped by a pro-PC social media group called Ontario Proud, which has garnered a large following on Facebook by blasting Wynne.

As well, Brown has moved to limit his party’s exposure to controversy by ensuring next month’s PC policy convention in Toronto will steer clear of divisive social issues such as abortion.

Yufest said the Liberals are benefitting from the fact that some government initiatives, such as raising the $11.60-an-hour minimum wage to $14 next year and $15 in 2019, and introducing free pharmacare for everyone under the age of 25 in January, appear to be popular with voters.

“It’s not surprising, as those policies have been rolled out, we’ve seen a huge jump in their voter intent (numbers).”