By David Jones/PennLive

We pretty much know who's headed to the NFL, who intends to transfer out (and even a few in) and who's coming back. We can fill in the blanks and rearrange later. So, based on what we do know, here's a very early penciled-in projection on what the final 2019 Power Poll could look like come December.

We're going bottom-to-top here like usual. And you can figure out the theoretical division standings yourself. It's good for your mind.

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Illinois head coach Lovie Smith has been re-upped.

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14. Illinois

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Of all the purported attributes of Lovie Smith’s hiring three years ago, it was most anticipated that recruiting would be significantly pumped, especially on the defensive side. Who wouldn’t want to play for a former NFL head coach and defensive coordinator known for his tough resistances with the Chicago Bears and linebacking with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

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Apparently, not too many top recruits. Illinois has actually regressed – from 46 to 53 to 61 national class ranking (2017-18-19) – in recruiting quality during Smith’s tenure.

That’s not going to cut it because Smith certainly has not exhibited any mastery as a teacher of the game during his three years at UI. And his alleged specialty has been the team’s ongoing disaster. Illinois is sort of the flip side of Rutgers in that its offense has shown some spunk but the defense has been dysfunctional.

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In the final home game against Iowa, the two sides met at the bottom in a 63-0 loss to Iowa. And so, AD Josh Whitman, who weeks into his tenure hired Smith, doubled down and handed him a 2-year contract extension right after the season ended. Smith is now booked through 2023 at $3.5M per, adding another $7M onto his original $21M/6-year deal. How’d you like to be a UI season ticket marketer?

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Mike Locksley, shown here as Maryland interim head coach in 2015, is 3-31 as a head coach -- at New Mexico and as an interim after Randy Edsall was fired at UMd.

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13. Maryland

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If you want a window into exactly what Maryland hired as its head coach, consider Alabama's 4th-and-6 fake field goal in the College Football Playoff national championship against Clemson. Mike Locksley was in charge of the offense that had a freshman kicker lead blocking on DT Christian Wilkins to get the holder six yards. Yes, indeed.

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Locksley, you’ll recall, is 3-31 as a collegiate head coach, owing much of that to his tenure at New Mexico back a decade ago after he parlayed his recruiting success under Ron Zook at Illinois. The UNM stint was an epic that included his punching of an assistant coach. This will be his third stint at Maryland. When they gave since-deposed (I don’t mean that in a legal sense) D.J. Durkin the HC job three years ago, Locks ran off to help Nick Saban recruit more studs at Bama.

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So, now he’s back for a third helping in College Park and I will go out on a limb (not really) and predict utter chaos. As you might imagine after the Jordan McNair tragedy, nobody with a sane mind is allowing his or her kids to sign with Maryland; it’s 2019 class is currently ranked at the bottom of the B1G by 247 Sports (#72 nationally) pending the February late-window results. Locksley will eventually persuade some recruits, but not nearly enough to compensate for his established liabilities.

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We'd show Chris Ash "during happier times" at Rutgers but we couldn't really find any of those.

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12. Rutgers

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When you assess a team this early for the following season, it makes sense to gauge how they finished the just-completed schedule. That goes especially for a chronic loser like the Scarlet Knights. Did they keep fighting in November? The Knights did. Unlike previous seasons, they hung in there against bully-ball purveyors Wisconsin and Michigan and then played Penn State and Michigan State tough in the season’s final two games, even though their offense remained impotent.

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Clearly, the defense was the most improved part of the program. Which means, of course, Rutgers shipped out their defensive coordinator. Jay Niemann is out and journeyman DC Andy Buh, a Harbaugh guy who last was seen ejecting from the mess at Maryland, is in. The guy whose defense gave up 66 and 38 to PSU the last two seasons. OK, then.

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At least, Rutgers is keeping players around long enough to see their junior and seasons under Chris Ash, for a switch, rather than washing out. So, the Knights will have a lot more experience back than usual. I’m not sure experience losing 11 straight is a good thing, but the players do know each other. That includes RBs Isaih Pacheco and Raheem Blackshear who could play for a lot of teams in the B1G. Blackshear was both the team’s top rusher (143 carries, 586 yards) and receiver (44 catches, 367 yards).

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Indiana coach Tom Allen (left) and James Franklin after Penn State's win last October in Bloomington.

PennLive/Joe Hermitt

11. Indiana

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God bless Tom Allen. He reminds me of Ed DeChellis. He is Boxer the plow horse in Orwell's Animal Farm, continuously toiling in earnest, attempting to lift the rusty loaded wagon that is Indiana football up the long hill of each season, only to slip and slide back to about where he began. It is the noble struggle of the Big Ten proletariat against the entrenched elite of an obscenely affluent conference.

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And Allen cannot win. He can, however, maintain his position and maybe even climb a rung or two because of those even less fortunate and because he is recruiting about as well as any IU coach ever has. Allen and his staff are, at least, keeping a lot of the best talent from in-state, such as 4-stars RB Sampson James and DE Beau Robbins, both from Indianapolis, and LB Cam Williams from Merrillville, in the northwest corner near Chicago.

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There is further trepidation about the offense in 2019, however, because Allen is losing three experienced senior starters off the O-line and that’s never good at a place with as little depth as Indiana. And considering how little fizz and finishing power IU’s offense had to begin with, it’s a legit concern.

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P.J. Fleck and Gophers hoist Quick Lane Bowl trophy last month in Detroit.

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10. Minnesota

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I have said before that Minnesota might be the toughest job in the Big Ten because there is not only no local recruiting base but not even an established pipeline to a remote one. Even Cornbelt-surrounded outposts like Iowa and Nebraska have traditionally mined Florida and Texas for players. Minnesota has nothing around it but prairie and a long border with a foreign nation whose national sport is hockey.

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That said, the nonstop car alarm that is P.J. Fleck has managed to persuade a pretty good 2019 class, including 4-star Georgian DT Rashad Cheney, to sign with the Gophers. Considering that Minnesota’s New Year’s Six bowl drought dates back to when there weren’t even that many bowls (1962), that’s a pretty impressive achievement.

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I like a couple of other things that are going on here: The Gophers finished strong with upsets of Purdue and Wisconsin in November and, for what it’s worth, a rout of Georgia Tech in the Detroit Oil Change Bowl. With 7 home games and a couple of FCS opponents on the 2019 schedule, I think Fleck has a 7-6 season in him here before some desperate entity with expendable income in the ACC, Big 12 or SEC takes a flyer on him and doubles or triples his $1.05 million salary at The U.

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Purdue coach Jeff Brohm's present for sticking with Purdue was having to endure the Boilermakers' 63-14 loss in the Music City Bowl to Auburn.

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9. Purdue

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I didn’t see that Auburn beat-down in Nashville coming. Honestly, it was easily to believe the Boilermakers would get a boost out of Jeff Brohm rejectng his alma mater Louisville to stay at Purdue. I didn’t see that coming, either. So, let’s just count this prediction as a palm’s-up for a team as mystifying as any in college football. When you can rout Ohio State by 29, beat two other ranked teams and then get destroyed by Minnesota by 31, you qualify as an enigma.

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Brohm did parlay the Boilermakers’ second straight bowl after a 5-year drought into a Top-25 recruiting class. But I anticipate Purdue will very much miss graduating quarterback David Blough who quietly had an outstanding year after a very rough underclass upbringing. Elijah Sindelar at least has experience as a starter. Purdue still has all those playmakers led by Rondale Moore. And the defense that got raked for 63 by Auburn returns its entire front seven. But no team gets beaten like the Boilers did without their confidence being shaken.

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James Franklin during a pre-Citrus Bowl practice in Holuba Hall.

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8. Penn State

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Don’t mistake this for a projection of Penn State’s long-term performance arc, but I think James Franklin’s boys could be headed for a rough year. He has lost too much in the space of two departing groups after the 2017 and 2018 seasons and the Nittany Lions are in for a rebuild. The departure of Trace McSorley as the 3-year starting quarterback is the obvious glaring vacancy. And I don’t care what you think about Tommy Stevens or Sean Clifford, until a new QB is fully seated and oriented as the starter, there’s a window of adjustment – for everyone.

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The offense was not well constructed in 2018 and McSorley’s savvy masked a lot of that. Further, for all his fumbles (5), Miles Sanders was the backbone of the attack. He got a lot of tough yards, ran southbound and relinquished in losses a third of what Saquon Barkley did in 2017, and netted 1,274 rushing with a 5.8 average. I think he’ll be missed more than most believe, especially behind what was a so-so offensive line that’s now lost Ryan Bates and Connor McGovern.

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It's going to be up to a growing defense led by budding stars Micah Parsons and Yetur Gross-Matos to change the personality of the team from a high-flying offensive show into one that wins mid-to-low-scoring games. We saw a little of that against Wisconsin and Iowa and that might be the Lions' modus operandi for 2019. It won't always be pretty, but the primo teenagers Franklin has recruited the past two classes need time to grow up.

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Pat Fitzgerald gestures to Northwestern fans at Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis.

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7. Northwestern

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If you saw any of quarterback Trevor Lawrence in Clemson’s CFP national championship rout of Alabama, now you know why 5-star recruit Hunter Johnson transferred from the Tigers to Northwestern. The Indianapolis native is back in the Midwest and has a great shot to take over for the next three years in replacing graduated 4-year starter Clayton Thorson. Johnson is technically a dual-threat, but his forte is a quick release and as live an arm as any Northwestern quarterback ever.

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Johnson is one recruit Pat Fitzgerald won’t have to coach up the way he does most of his usual 2- and 3-stars. The Wildcats routinely rank in the bottom third of the B1G recruiting rankings because of their academic standards and lack of tradition. And Fitz loses three starters off his offensive line, so the new kid might need his wheels.

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Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst during September game in Madison.

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6. Wisconsin

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Wisconsin cannot be Wisconsin without a dominating offensive line. The Badgers thought they had that covered entering last season with a starting five plus tight ends that got a lot of preseason pub. They were pretty good, not great. And in a season where Alex Hornibrook endured a particularly problematic concussion and the Badgers’ receiving corps was impotent, Bucky had real issues unless Jonathan Taylor had the ball.

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Further, Wisconsin got little pressure on opposing quarterbacks and its secondary was strafed. Paul Chryst needs to tidy up several areas at once. The QB position might be in flux with Hornibrook likely getting a challenge from freshman Graham Mertz (MVP last week at the All-American Bowl high school all-star game in San Antonio). And the Badger linebackers need to regain that nasty edge of the 2016 and 2017 groups.

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Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio in a lighthearted moment during 9-6 loss at Nebraska on Nov. 17.

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5. Michigan State

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Can we just make a lifetime projection of the Spartans for fifth overall and third in the East for perpetuity, or at least until Mark Dantonio is wheeled off to retirement? They’re always competitive, they’re always a tough out for “big brother” Michigan, they defend with tenacity and East Lansing in November is no damn fun. (Neither is October or September, but you know...)

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Brian Lewerke is back which is kind of like saying they’ll have eggs tomorrow at your local supermarket. Eggs are good. Hopefully, he’ll have a healthier right shoulder than the one that was mashed at Arizona State and never really healed. He’ll miss graduating wideout Felton Davis a bunch because he was just about the only other man worth a phone call on that forlorn offense. I know Sparty had a ton of injuries, but, man. I haven’t seen a defense carry an offense in the B1G like that since Penn State in 2004. Dantonio recruited to the offensive line hard in the 2019 class but those guys won’t help right away. He needs a healthy Lewerke.

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Kirk Ferentz during Iowa's 27-22 win over Mississippi State in Outback Bowl in Tampa.

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4. Iowa

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Speaking of 9th-year seniors, Nate Stanley returns at quarterback for the Hawkeyes. Which probably doesn't excite their fans as much as it might because the senior is sort of treated like a club fighter in Iowa. They remember the missed throws but not the TD passes and the big days he's had – like the performance that overwhelmed Ohio State in 2017. The endings like the one at Penn State last year tend to stick in their craw.

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I would guess matters are looking up for Stanley because the young offensive line Kirk Ferentz got by with last season could be pretty good with everyone but the center back this year. Yes, four big junior names are out the door to the NFL and two of them will smart for Stanley – superior TEs Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson – along with safety Amani Hooker and defensive end Anthony Nelson. But, assuming I’m right about that O-line, count Iowa as a West contender.

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Nebraska coach Scott Frost raises game ball in air after his Cornhuskers' 9-6 win in the snow over Michigan State.

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3. Nebraska

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Quarterbacks who make a difference have been in short supply lately in the B1G. Those who’ve had them have won big. Those who’ve not have not. Dwayne Haskins this past season went a long way toward the Ohio State conference championship. J.T. Barrett did the same in 2017 and Trace McSorley at Penn State in 2016 and even Connor Cook at Michigan State to an extent in 2015. I think Adrian Martinez could be that guy for Nebraska.

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Will the Cornhuskers be able to fill in all the gaps around him by the 2019 season? Scott Frost is working on it. Picking a team that didn’t even make a bowl to win a division is a stretch any year and I’m not doing it yet. But Frost and Martinez give Nebraska a head start considering the competition. Not to mention the way the Huskers played down the stretch. After an 0-6 start, they went 4-2 in the last six weeks and not only played Northwestern, Ohio State and Iowa all within 5 points on the road but scored 28+ on all of them.

I also like Nebraska’s 2019 schedule – 5 conference games in Lincoln including a firecracker opener with Ohio State, plus Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa (the last two in November).

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Former Penn State assistant Josh Gattis, here with wideout DaeSean Hamilton in 2016, officially left Alabama last week to join Michigan as its offensive coordinator.

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2. Michigan

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Well, just when you think you've figured out Jim Harbaugh, he surprises you. And boy, did that Josh Gattis hire surprise everyone in the Big Ten East. Any way you slice it, Harbaugh nabbing the former Penn State and Alabama WRs coach, just when everyone thought he was following Locksley to Maryland, was a coup.

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Is Gattis a legit coordinator? Can he overhaul that swag-challenged Michigan offense? We are about to find out. But even if the Wolverines’ attack is not structurally different, Gattis will supply some attitudinal fizz that this stodgy shop desperately needs. It’ll be like giving Al Gore dancing lessons, but it might work.

I see it this way: The material is there – has been there – for Michigan to be a scary offense. If Gattis, in his first try as an OC, can just for once flip QB Shea Patterson and talented but heretofore constricted WRs Tarik Black, Nico Collins and Donovan Peoples-Jones into balls-out attack mode, look the hell out.

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Ryan Day's head coaching experience consists of three games in September when he subbed for suspended Urban Meyer.

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1. Ohio State

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This is a placeholder simply because the Buckeyes have the best talent in the league every year. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything yet, with a rookie head coach and a raw rookie quarterback. We’ll reassess in the summer. And that’s as long as Ryan Day gets redshirt-freshman QB Justin Fields’ waiver approved by the NCAA so that he can play right away after transferring from Georgia.

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OSU is more accustomed to what goes on today in college football because it’s been reloading top players who leave early for the NFL for longer than anyone else in the Big Ten. So, when underclass stars like Haskins and DT DréMont Jones and DE Nick Bosa take off before their eligibility is up, OSU coaches not only have anticipated as much but scheduled recruits to fill in behind them. It’s like Nick Saban replacing coordinators every year. It’s not a blow for him because he expects it.

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That said, I believe Day will start to find out exactly what sort of pressure is applied when you are head coach at Ohio State. I don’t think he’s breezing into Lincoln Riley-after-Bob Stoops territory here. While the grace period may last a year – as it did for Earle Bruce when he took Woody Hayes’ players and won a Big Ten title his first season in 1979 – that first unexpected loss will come. That’s when Day will find out what he’s gotten himself into and what grinder Urban Meyer embraced at a college-football-crazy place – something like the gravity of Jupiter.

EMAIL/TWITTER DAVID JONES: djones@pennlive.com

Follow @djoneshoop

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