Steven Matz entered the 2015 season with significant prospect hype,, despite missing two years (2010-11) of development time due to Tommy John surgery. In 2016, he is presumed to be in the no. 4 starter role in the Mets heralded rotation. However, Matz deserves more fantasy attention than your typical fourth starter. Steven Matz is poised for more than a Rookie of the Year campaign, and is potentially prepared to be one of the most dominant left handed pitchers in baseball.

Matz made his MLB debut in June, but missed nearly two months of time after his second start due to a lat injury. In the short period of time Matz was able to pitch for the Mets in 2015, he was quite effective, posting a 2.27 ERA in six regular season starts. Matz’s ERA was backed by a 22.8 K% and a low 6.7% BB%.

One of the difficulties fantasy owners will grapple with this draft season is properly valuing him in drafts and auctions given his prospect track record (#3 LHP prospect according to MLB Pipeline), MLB debut, extensive injury history, and the difficulty of predicting future performance based on small sample sizes.

Player Name Debut Age K% BB% WHIP ERA FIP GB% LOB% Steven Matz 24 22.8% 6.7% 1.23 2.27 3.61 45.5% 91.4%

Peripheral Numbers

Matz’s final 2015 pitching line looks strong across the table; however, his FIP is closer to what fantasy owners can expect his ERA to be in his rookie year (he did not qualify as a rookie in ’15). One reason for that is his LOB% in 2015 was 91.4%, which is unstainable and will be subject to quite a bit of regression. Provided that Matz can continue to display excellent control and command of his pitches, his 2015 WHIP of 1.23 is a reasonable baseline for 2016.

Arsenal

According to Brooks Baseball, Matz’s arsenal consists of a 94 mile-per-hour four-seam fastball (68% usage), a 78 mph curveball (19%), an 83 mph changeup (11%), and a show-me 88 mph slider (2%). With the exception of the slider, which Matz uses sparingly, all three of his other pitches grade out by whiff rate as league average or better. Matz also limited his walk rate to 6.7%, in part due to good command and a first pitch strike rate of 61.7 %.

Pitch Type League Average Whiff % Matz Whiff % Matz Usage Four Seam 16% 19% 68% Changeup 29% 31% 11% Slider 32% 0% 2% Curve 30% 23% 19%

Comparison

When I searched for recent left handed pitching prospects with late debuts like Matz, the most notable pitchers I found were Dallas Keuchel of the Houston Astros and Jose Quintana of the Chicago White Sox.

I think it would be challenging to fairly compare Keuchel to Matz given that Keuchel just won his first Cy Young award this season, but also because Matz’s debut was considerably stronger than Keuchel’s brutal 2012 rookie campaign (5.27 ERA). Matz appears capable of posting a respectable ground ball rate moving forward, but nothing in the realm of Keuchel (61.7% in ‘15) at this point in time. Keuchel’s major league development, future performance expectations, and 2016 fantasy value deserve their own article.

Jose Quintana, on the other hand, may represent a better glimpse of what we can cautiously forecast for Matz moving forward.

Jose Quintana

Years K% BB% GB% F-Strike% ERA 2013-15 20.63% 6.02% 44.6% 67.3% 3.39

While Quintana’s stat-line represents an ambitious level for a rookie like Matz to achieve, it should be noted that Matz possesses the potential to be much more dominant than Quintana. Matz’s fastball sits about three mph faster and features greater horizontal movement (read: tail) than Quintana’s. It would not be surprising if Matz’s strikeout rate were closer to 23% (which is what Zips projects) than 20%. The Mets have stated that they expect Matz to take on a 2016 workload of 190 innings. If Matz is able to achieve 190 innings this season, he should face around 800 total batters, and holding a 23% strikeout rate would equate to about 180 strikeouts.

Matz’s strikeout potential and workload make him a better bet than sinker-baller Marcus Stroman this season. Matz currently is the 30th pitcher being taken (115 overall) in early 2016 drafts. Quintana has quietly been the model of consistency over the past three seasons while pitching for the White Sox. He was never a prospect held in high regard by any of the organizations that signed him prior to moving to the Southside, but like Matz has a strong four-seam fastball. Quintana, to his credit, improved his change-up, command, and mechanics since his 2012 debut with the White Sox. Those improvements have allowed Quintana to position himself into pitcher-friendly counts, giving him the opportunity to throw pitches that induce whiffs or weak contact near or outside the zone.

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