Paul Krishnamurty is a professional gambler and political analyst. He writes about US and UK politics at the blog The Political Gambler and on Twitter at @paulmotty.

Paul Krishnamurty is a British professional political gambler currently touring America to watch the primaries firsthand—and to bet on the election. He’s reporting regularly for Politico Magazine on how the gambling markets see the race—who’s up, who’s down, and where the smart money is moving.

Trump is a runaway train


From the market’s perspective, it’s nearly all over. All the smart money is now on Trump. Before the Nevada caucuses, Trump had hardened to about 53 percent for the nomination—the highest he’s been since January. Suddenly he surged past 70 percent, a new record—and he kept going. He’s now at 78 percent and pushing 80. (Trump’s presidency numbers have similarly surged: He was ranked before Nevada at 16 percent; now he’s up to 26.)

Trump did take a little bit of a roller coaster ride after Nevada, though. When Rubio began tearing into Trump at Thursday’s Texas debate, three days after Nevada, the market moved markedly in Rubio’s favor. In the space of half an hour, Trump’s nomination odds dropped slightly from a post-Nevada high of 72 percent to 65 percent, with Rubio rising from 22 percent to 28 percent.

But then the billionaire mogul dropped another bombshell: Chris Christie. The very moment that Chris Christie endorsed Trump—presumably a cleverly timed announcement to take the wind out of his opponents’ sails—the market snapped back to where it had been before Rubio’s attack. Then Govs. Paul LePage of Maine and Jane Brewer of Arizona jumped on Team Trump, and Trump’s nomination numbers zoomed up to 78; his presidency numbers bounced from 24 to 26.

Personally, I’m feeling more than a bit of frustration. My original analysis was that an outsider would win the nomination. I just assumed it would be Cruz, not Trump. I really should have backed Trump—I should have had something, something, on Trump. I thought he would eventually implode. I think that celebrity culture has won; it’s been more important than traditional ideological and policy fault lines.

However, while the market may be calling the race over, I’m not ready to. If Trump gets fewer than 50 percent of delegates, the brokered convention is still on. That’s why I’ve doubled my bet to $200 on Paul Ryan at 400:1, a gamble that has great trading potential, since it’s possible he could emerge as a compromise candidate amidst the chaos. The GOP establishment has every incentive to resist Trump for as long as they can.

Thank Nikki Haley for Cruz’s free-fall

The moment of the Nikki Haley endorsement was a turning point for Ted Cruz. Almost from the moment of her speech, Rubio’s and Cruz’s number start to move—Rubio went from a 26 percent chance to win the nomination to 42 percent, and for the presidency, 12 percent up to 18 percent.

Cruz, on the other hand, began a plummet that hasn’t stopped since, going from 14 percent for the nomination to 2 percent, and for the presidency, 4 percent to 0.5 percent. The market hates Cruz now. He may revive his numbers slightly with a big win in Texas, but right now, he’s just gone. I’ve had to get creative with hedging on various candidates in order to stay above water.

This whole time, I had thought Haley was a plausible Cruz endorser. But when she came out for Rubio, I switched horses immediately, betting on Rubio to take second in South Carolina—I won $360 on that bet. Feeling bold, I then went even further, placing another $1,250 on Rubio for the presidency (I had previously put $1,250 on Rubio to go all the way).

Then came Nevada—which, from the market’s viewpoint, was simply devastating for Rubio. I decided to sell my original Rubio bet, making $500 in profit, but keeping the second $1,250, on Rubio in case he goes on to win.

My only outstanding big bet is the original position I took on Cruz for the nomination. Last week, I doubled down on Cruz with a second bet; this week, I sold it right back, literally 10 minutes after Haley’s endorsement—no profit, no loss. In that sense, I’ve simply reverted to my original big bet, which guarantees at least a $500 profit and will pay off an extra $13,500 if he wins the nomination. A Cruz nomination is certainly unlikely, but you never know.

The good news: Jeb finally kicks the can

Finally, Jeb Bush is out. I had short sold Jeb very early on, so I made a few thousand on that bet. The one thing I’ve been sure about throughout the campaign is the market’s astounding overrated position on Jeb Bush.

Again, it comes back to Haley. The Haley endorsement was an absolute death knell for Jeb Bush. Before the endorsement, Bush was about 11 percent for the nomination; within hours of the Haley announcement, he was down to 4 percent, then 3 percent, for the nomination—maybe even less. He was just collapsing.

Where did the Jeb money go? Initially, it seemed to go to Rubio—that’s why his market price rose after South Carolina. But after Nevada a few days later, Rubio fell back to where he was before the Haley endorsement. So Jeb’s collapse, like everything, has somehow managed to benefit Trump. All the money is on Trump.

The big new markets: Super Tuesday states, vice president selection

I’m waiting to see where the state markets go—there could be money to make there. Those markets are fairly new.

Texas is the most obvious one on my radar, but I’m getting conflicting information there. Some polls show a dead-heat, and others an easy Cruz win. I need a little more data before I bet.

I’m also looking ahead long term to vice presidential picks—those betting markets are just starting to open, and I expect to play them soon. For Clinton, I think Julian Castro is a solid bet—he’s the only name in the Democratic veepstakes market right now, but he’s already at around 30 percent. For Trump, it’s wide open and unpredictable. I could see him picking Rudy Giuliani, Joe Scarborough, Scott Walker or even Chris Christie. In the increasingly unlikely event that Rubio wins the nomination, Nikki Haley would be my confident choice.

The various betting firms might introduce other markets just to make it interesting—betting on second and third place finishes, for instance. In the Democratic race, we might see markets open up on the margin of victory. I’m really just hunting for any good bet at the moment.

The Democratic race finally gets boring

I’ve made no new bets on the Democratic side. I think it’s all over, to be honest. Hillary is at 88 percent for the nomination; Bernie is at 12. I’m sure Bernie will stay in past Super Tuesday, but there’s not much to bet on there. I don’t see the market changing much.

Clinton is the overwhelming favorite in most of the Southern Super Tuesday states. In the Super Tuesday market itself—a betting market for which candidate will win the most states on Tuesday—Clinton is somewhere between 95 and 97 percent.

That said, I’ll keep my eye on some of the state markets. There may be a few odd, white liberal states where Bernie could surge, like Massachusetts, which might be an opportunity for me to make a few bets.

The third winner, after Trump and Clinton: Mike Bloomberg

If Trump and Clinton both were to clinch the nomination soon, I’d pay close attention to Michael Bloomberg. With Clinton pandering to the left on economics and Trump talking about ripping up every free trade agreement, a Bloomberg run is more likely than it was two weeks ago. (Though a Sanders-Trump race would be the ideal scenario for Bloomberg’s entry.)

Bloomberg is still just under 2 percent, which is to say that the market is still sleeping on his potential. Anything could happen. In this election, and with this market, it would be far form the strangest thing that’s ever happened.

This has been edited and condensed from an interview with Ben Wofford.