Upsets, upsets and more upsets. Every year, they help drive the NCAA Tournament to a special place in our sports culture. And yet, despite 128 opportunities, we still haven’t seen the king of all upsets — a “lowly” No. 16 seed has yet to knock off a No. 1 seed in the men’s tournament. Yet the math says three No. 16 seeds should have beaten a No. 1 by now. So why hasn’t it happened? In the film above, we explore that question and discuss whether you should expect the ultimate upset to happen this year.

Film directed by Jason Reid. Produced by Adam Brown and Jason Reid.

Check out our March Madness predictions.

CORRECTION (March 14, 2:35 p.m.): An earlier version of this video misidentified Santa Clara University as part of the University of California public college system. It is not.