After Tuesday morning’s NFL ruling, the earliest Adrian Peterson could step on an NFL practice field would be at next year’s team minicamps in May, with his first possible return to game action happening in the 2015 preseason.

Peterson is currently suspended without pay for at least the remainder of the 2014 regular season, the “at least” part being the key phrase as NFL commissioner Roger Goodell indicated that the Vikings running back’s adherence to a counseling and treatment program will determine his potential reinstatement.

The NFLPA will appeal the ruling and demand a neutral arbitrator, so it’s possible that such proceedings could affect the ban, but if Peterson does indeed remain off the field for the rest of the season, where does this leave his playing career moving forward?

Unlike Ray Rice, who was released by the Ravens and indefinitely suspended by the NFL, Peterson was still performing at a high-caliber level in 2013, although there was a significant drop in production from his MVP season in 2012.

By the time he would take the field in 2015, Peterson will be 30 years old, although there will likely have been some physical benefit in being forced to spare his body the damage it would have endured for nearly the entire 2014 season. Peterson has always been pretty committed to his conditioning so it’s hard to imagine that has changed all that much during his time away from the game.

The Vikings, who refused to comment Tuesday beyond saying they “respect the league’s decision,” have Peterson signed through the 2017 season, but it’s nearly impossible to see him remaining with the team in 2015 regardless of when he’s reinstated.

With an average annual salary of $14.5 million, Peterson was already making more than $5 million more per year than any other back in the NFL. Even before the child abuse scandal emerged, he would have needed to continue playing at an MVP level for the team to justify not releasing him for cap reasons at some point. Now, especially with his guaranteed money already paid, releasing Peterson seems like it would be the obvious move for Minnesota.

While there are plenty of fans who may justifiably feel he’s getting a raw deal at this point, it’s the smart business decision both on and off the field.

The most likely scenario for Peterson once this is all resolved is that he’ll sign a one or two year deal for much less money on a team willing to deal with the initial public relations fallout.

But what is the realistic expectation of Peterson’s production once he hits 30? Prior to 2014, the only time he had less than 275 carries in a season were his 2007 rookie year and in 2011, when he suffered a serious ACL tear in Week 16.

That’s a lot of mileage, even if he will be returning with relatively fresh legs.

Consider the production of another recent back with a similar career trajectory as Peterson. LaDainian Tomlinson ran for over 1,000 yards in each of his first eight seasons. He never did in his last three years after turning 30 prior to the 2009 season.

Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton and Curtis Martin were all able to remain productive until about 31 or 32, but then you have a player like Eric Dickerson, whose numbers and durability took a precipitous drop after turning 30.

Peterson’s year off may give him an extension on that career deadline, but he’s likely looking at a two-year deal at most if he hits the free agent market. It certainly won’t come close to anywhere near the money he was getting in Minnesota, but a team like the Cowboys could be a fit if DeMarco Murray signs elsewhere this offseason. It certainly wasn’t outside of the realm of possibility before Peterson’s recent troubles.

The Jets haven’t had gotten much from their late-career acquisitions of Tomlinson or Chris Johnson, and while they’ll likely have a new GM and head coach heading into 2015, there’s always the chance that they’d be willing to take a shot.

The possibility that Peterson still has one or two Pro Bowl seasons left in him will be too much to keep him from ending up on someone’s roster in 2015, assuming he’s finally reinstated at that point. He just won’t be the focal point of the offense.