A White Christmas is not as common as you would think for the majority of the United States (and, really, is a lack of black slush and inevitable wet socks such a bad thing?).

In fact, very few places have a high probability of experiencing at least 1-inch of snowfall on December 25, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration map shared by Reddit user Dohada in where else but the Reddit Map Porn community.

As suspected, the South and coastal areas are covered in gray, which means the chance of snowfall is less than 10 percent. But so is much of the midwest—which seems strange—since those areas are notorious for icy, frigid, winter temperatures.

White, however, represents places where the probability is higher than 90 percent. And these areas include: Idaho, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Rockies, and the Sierra Nevada mountains in California.

The map, of course, is just an estimate, since it was compiled from weather patterns observed from 1981-2010. But there’s this little thing called—brace yourselves for controversy—climate change, which alters the predications a bit.

For example, let’s take a look at the Sierra Nevada. Normally, a massive amount of snow cloaks the mountain around this time of year. The Sierra Nevada mountain range produces so much snow, in fact, that it provides fresh drinking water for a third of Californians.

But, according to researchers at the University of Arizona, snow on the ground was at its lowest level in 500 years. The culprit? Warmer temperatures thanks to—you guessed it—climate change.

And to further complicate our dreams of a snowy Christmas, we’re going to experience the strongest El Niño in 50 years, lowering the chance of snowfall even more.

“Average snowcover across the US on Christmas Day is between 35 and 40 percent. I’d expect it to be slightly lower than average this year—not because of a lack of storminess, but because of a lack of sustained cold air behind any storm,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Ben Noll reports.

But hey: Things could be worse. Imagine living in a place—overrun by beaches and cabanas—where you know you’ll have zero chances of ever experiencing a white Christmas.