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Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

If oil hits $40, Russia is in trouble.

Already faced with recession and sanctions, a further drop in crude might force the country's central bank into an emergency rate hike — after four cuts already this year — according to 65 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg from July 24-29. Thirty-nine percent of analysts said the government might impose Greek-like capital controls and 22 percent predicted a takeover of at least some of the country's banks.

When asked about the central bank's own analysis of the $40-per-barrel oil scenario, which found a roughly 600 billion ruble capital deficit and two-fold increase in the share of non-performing loans, 69 percent of economists said it has accurately estimated the risks to the Russian economy and banking sector.

The impact on growth from $40 oil would be particularly severe, weakening the ruble to 65 against the U.S. dollar by end-2015 and causing the economy to contract by 5 percent this year and 1 percent in 2016. Compare that to the far less pessimistic baseline consensus provided by Bloomberg's monthly economic survey, which currently forecasts a 3.5 percent contraction in 2015 and a 0.5 percent expansion in 2016.

Even with oil trading closer to $50 per barrel, economists see an 83 percent probability of recession in the next 12 months. That's down from 95 percent last month but still marks the twelfth month that the indicator has stood above the 50 percent mark.

On the sanctions front, only 28 percent of respondents said the EU will begin lifting existing asset freezes and travel bans during the next year, down from 52 percent who said the same in May.

Just one economist expects the U.S. to lift its sanctions in the next 12 months.

(For more economic analysis, see Benchmark.)