When the fixtures were released for this La Liga season last summer, nobody would have expected Barcelona vs Atletico to be the title decider.

In fact, Barcelona were hardly expected to be in the title race only a couple of weeks ago. But it’s all gone downhill for both Madrid sides as the Catalonian club managed to rescue their bid for domestic success.

Atletico has blown a massive opportunity to win the title in their previous few fixtures. A 2-0 defeat to Levante followed by an even more surprising 1-1 draw means that they will have to fight for the title in the last game of the season. Barcelona have also blown an opportunity to overtake their rivals from the nation’s capital as they have only drawn their last two opponents in Getafe and Elche.

There are a lot of things at stake in this match. Here are five things you should look out for between Barcelona vs Atletico:

1. Goodbye Tata Martino

Win or lose, one would not be surprised that current Barcelona manager Gerard Martino will be forced out of the club. His style of play is considered more direct than his predecessors, which is a slightly unfair criticism, considering that Barca still implement a type of tiki-taka football. The results have reflected performances and a quarter final exit from the Champions League as well as losing the Copa Del Rey final to your fiercest rivals, means that even if Barcelona win the title, he’s still going to be handed his P45.

2. Simeone sounds less than confident

Diego Simeone has been pretty fiery from the touchline as well as his press conferences and interviews throughout this season. In his latest press conference he claims that he was humbled by the occasion at the Nou Camp and that the title race was “50-50.” Sometimes managers like to play spin doctors and deflect situations with a killer quote. But in this scenario, one has to wonder if Simeone has lost his swagger and has the team itself have lost the drive to get over the finishing line.

3. Are Atletico losing focus on La Liga for the Champions League

The last point leads me on to this point. Atletico could achieve a feat which nobody thought was possible last August which is to win both the league and the Champions League trophy too. Yet they have failed to secure La Liga yet and with the Madrid derby next week in Lisbon for club football’s greatest prize, Atletico vs Barcelona may take a backseat. It does seem unlikely judging by the club and manager’s competitive psychology, but stranger things have happened.

4. Home advantage for Barca

Barcelona have only lost one league game at home (a 3-2 defeat to Valencia) and have the joint best home record in the league with 49 points out of a possible 54. Atletico Madrid have lost all four of their league games on the road this year which may cause some concerns for the Atleti bench. Furthermore, with both teams out of form and playing poorly, one would probably have to favour the home side in this instance—especially since they have won 16 of their 18 home games in the league this season.

5. The Formbook: It will be a tight affair (1 Win for Atletico and 4 draws and only five goals scored)

Yet the formbook for Barcelona vs Atletico fixtures dictates otherwise if you look at the five times they have played each other this season. They drew on four occasions before the second leg of their Champions League quarter final tie. Atletico scraped a 1-0 victory at home that night and Barcelona dropped out of Europe’s elite competition. Although, if you want to go for another formbook, Barcelona have won the last four of the five league encounters between the two sides.

Baring in mind that Atletico only need a draw to win the title and the fact that Barcelona have yet to beat them this season, the omens do not look good for the team from Spain’s second city. Yet, this is the sort of fixture where all statistics are thrown out the window. It looks set to be a tense affair, but hopefully it’s a more open contest than their previous encounters this season. Barcelona vs Atletico for the La Liga title needs to be a blockbuster match for a blockbuster season.

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