Sacred Heart/Hearst Poll: Lamont increases slight edge

Republican Bob Stefanowski, left, and Democrat Ned Lamont. Republican Bob Stefanowski, left, and Democrat Ned Lamont. Photo: Peter Hvizdak / Hearst Connecticut Media Photo: Peter Hvizdak / Hearst Connecticut Media Image 1 of / 14 Caption Close Sacred Heart/Hearst Poll: Lamont increases slight edge 1 / 14 Back to Gallery

Connecticut voter preference is swinging slightly more to Ned Lamont, according to a new Sacred Heart University/Hearst Connecticut Media Group Poll that shows the Democrat with a 6.2 percent lead over Republican Bob Stefanowski.

The telephone survey of 501 likely voters between Sept. 12 and 17 indicates a slight increase over the 3.9 percent lead Lamont held in the days after the mid-August Democratic primary. Lamont has 43.1 percent to Stefanowski’s 36.9 percent, the new survey finds.

The poll also shows a major gender gap, with more than half of women voters voicing support for Lamont, compared to 36.5 percent backing Stefanowski. More than 43 percent of men surveyed support the Republican, compared to 37.8 percent who back Lamont.

Unaffiliated voters have swung slightly toward Stefanowski, however, with 36.5 percent supporting him now, compared to 29.8 percent last month.

The new survey finds than more than 16 percent of voters are undecided. Without mentioning other candidates, including Oz Griebel, an independent, the poll says “someone else” gets 3.8 percent of the vote.

“Our poll results show that Lamont enjoys a 6 percent lead over Stefanowski with likely voters,” said Leslie DeNardis, executive director of the SHU Institute for Public Policy and director of the university’s master of public administration program. “It is important to note that six weeks out from the election, significant numbers of voters are still undecided (16.2 percent), particularly the unaffiliated (28.6 percent), making this gubernatorial race highly competitive.”

DeNardis said the candidate who can offer the most-workable solutions to the state’s problems will have the edge in November.

Throwing jabs

Kendall Marr, Stefanowski’s spokesman, said it is plain that the race is close.

“The number of voters who are troubled by the tax policies put forth by (Gov.) Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont creates a real opportunity for Bob to win this race,” Marr said in a statement. “We expect the remaining undecideds and a substantial number of Democrats to break our way as voters have a chance to compare Ned Lamont’s plans to raise income taxes and continue Dan Malloy’s policies versus Stefanowski’s plan to cut taxes for every single Connecticut resident.”

Marc Bradley, Lamont’s campaign manager, said that while polls are “interesting,” Election Day will be the only one that matters.

“Ned is on the road across Connecticut every day, talking with voters about his plans to cut middle-class property taxes, create jobs and expand workforce training to get our economy moving again,” Bradley said in a statement. “Ned’s positive vision is an enormous contrast to Bob’s plan to rip more than half of the state’s revenue out of the budget in the middle of a fiscal crisis, which would gut education, drive up health care costs and cause property taxes to skyrocket.”

The poll indicates that voters also intend to vote for Democrats in all five congressional races, by 45.3 percent to 32.3 percent. Unaffiliated voters support Democrats for Congress by 36.5 percent to 30.2 percent, the poll finds.

Candidate Total Democrat Republican Female Male College Degree No degree Ned Lamont 43.10% 79.30% 8.80% 50.50% 37.80% 46.20% 39.40% Bob Stefanowski 36.90% 5.60% 78.60% 28.50% 43.40% 35.30% 39.40% Someone else 3.80% 3.50% 3.10% 4.70% 3.10% 3.40% 4.40%

Taxes and tolls

The land line/cellphone poll, performed by GreatBlue Research, has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.32 percent. It finds that voters who describe themselves as likely to vote on Nov. 6, have a 31.7 percent favorable rating for Lamont, compared to a 30.5 percent for Stefanowski. The Democrat and Republican have unfavorable ratings of 34.3 percent and 29.9 percent, respectively.

The major issues affecting voter preference is the state’s “high overall tax burden,” and the “state budget crisis,” by 23.2 percent and 22.8 percent, respectively, the poll shows.

More than 52 percent of the voters surveyed support the creation of highway tolls that collect “significant” amounts from interstate trucks as well as out-of-state and in-state motorists. While the August poll found 66.3 percent support for higher income taxes for those with incomes of more than a million dollars, now only 61.3 percent would agree with the proposal.

Coincidentally, while 30.5 percent of voters approved of President Donald Trump’s performance in August, that number has ticked up slightly, to nearly 34 percent.

Gov. Dannel P. Malloy’s 15.9 percent approval rating of last month pumped-up slightly to 16.8 percent in the new survey.

Last month, on the same day as the Sacred Heart/Hearst Poll, a statewide survey by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute found Lamont with a double-digit lead among registered voters. The Sacred Heart/Hearst Poll, both last month and Thursday, surveyed voters who describes themselves as “likely” to vote on Nov. 6.

kdixon@ctpost.com Twitter: @KenDixonCT