And energy consultant says carbon dioxide emissions rose 0.4% in year to 31 July, which is about 80% of Australia’s electricity consumption

This article is more than 5 years old

This article is more than 5 years old

Australia’s emissions from electricity generation had their largest recorded leap in more than a decade in July, an upwards trend that is set to continue over the coming year, new analysis has shown.

Carbon dioxide emissions rose 0.4% in the year to 31 July across the national energy market, which accounts for about 80% of Australia’s electricity consumption.

Carbon tax repeal sparks jump in Australia's electricity emissions Read more

The increase in emissions was particularly rapid between May and July: 1.2%. This is the highest two-month increase since March 2004, according to the energy consultancy Pitt & Sherry.

The increased use of brown and black coal since the repeal of the carbon price last year has continued, Pitt & Sherry stated; 76.3% of Australia’s electricity is now supplied by coal.

About seven million tonnes of extra carbon dioxide has been emitted since the carbon price was scrapped in July 2014, when the last year of the system is compared with the first year of its demise.

Hugh Saddler, the principal consultant at Putt & Sherry, said he expected the increase in emissions to continue over the coming year, potentially at a rate of an extra five or six million tonnes.

“High gas prices are making gas generation uncompetitive and we won’t see any new wind farms over the next year and a half,” he said. “There will be no new hydro power either so emissions will go up, for sure.

“We are seeing a continuing unwinding of the big decreases in emissions that we saw during the carbon pricing period. Not all of those decreases could have been sustained, however.”

Saddler said that a large increase in hydro power – to reap the benefits of the carbon price – wound down once the Coalition government ditched the scheme.

A notable source of extra emissions is set to be the extraction of coal seam gas to be liquefied and transported overseas via the Gladstone port in Queensland.

Pitt & Sherry estimates that the gas export process will increase Australia’s emissions by up to two million tonnes a year, which will triple in the coming years. There was an “element of irony” to this, given that gas was touted as a low-emissions option compared with coal.

Pitt & Sherry said high gas prices in Queensland were making carbon-heavy coal more attractive, and coal generation in New South Wales was experiencing its highest single month of output in two years.

Generation of brown coal, the most polluting type of coal, is also rising in Victoria, and displacing gas in South Australia and hydro in Tasmania.

“There [are] currently around 8,000 megawatts of surplus energy in the national electricity market, which is equivalent to four big power stations,” Saddler said. “If you look at the big brown coal power stations in Victoria, such as Hazelwood, they are high emissions and they aren’t really needed.”

Wind generation accounted for 5.4% of Australia’s electricity supply in the year to July, down slightly from May. There have been recent spikes in wind activity, however, with 14.4% of total electricity supplied by wind on 25 July.

The renewable energy industry is looking to resume investment activity after a moribund year caused by political wrangling over the future of the renewable energy target. Labor and the Coalition eventually struck a deal to cut the renewable energy target by about a quarter.

Demand for electricity grew in the year to July, Pitt & Sherry said, although at a slower rate than earlier this year.

Mark Butler, Labor’s environment spokesman, said: “There are a range of reasons pollution in the electricity sector has risen – attacks on renewable energy, polluters’ slush fund – but the only common factor is Tony Abbott.

“For as long as he’s prime minister, Australia’s carbon emissions will go up.”