We merged last week, nice twist to the Survivor game yes.

The merge is generally where the tribes become one and in this case, it was the first time we merged from three to one. However, for the first time in ages it still felt tribal. Yes, old Yawa and Levu came together but Soko was pretty clearly left in the dust. Sadly, as I predicted, Jessica got the Michelle Schubert treatment and was knocked out because people feared Joe and Cole having idols after Joe bragged about playing one and Cole went off and made everyone think he had one. While I was wrong about Mike flipping, the factions formed up as relatively similar to what I predicted. That’s weird, predicting things right. Usually I don’t account for the editing making no sense, but this time it kind of did.

Ultimately with Jessica going home and the Healers looking hopeless, a lot of people have been let down by the season and think Chrissei Lannister and little Joffryan will run and ruin it. I do think their shelf life is very long- in Ryan’s case far too long- but I don’t think the season is ruined. I will miss Jessica, from her quirky approach to strategy to her increasingly Michael Scottesque references to her romantic status that were too weird to be annoying. However, there’s no way you should be relying on Joe and Cole to save a season. Cole will be entertaining because he needs a downfall. Joe is a headache and acts like Tony-Lite more than he looks like him.

Not only that, but I am still engaged with the season. In part because the side everyone hates has Lauren in it, but because things in the season are making sense, and one thing leads into another. Yes, these are the basic necessities for a good Survivor season but when you’re starving any crumb is a buffet at the Outback Steakhouse. I definitely think the reports of the season going to hell are largely exaggerated and as long as the season doesn’t rely on tired fake suspense it can be a Pagonging for all I care.

Since this episode was about factions within factions I see no reason we shouldn’t talk about those. Last episode was a Foresight Bias (did you catch that? I was proud of it.) This article can be on the other side of it. Lord knows I don’t wanna give any credence to that Outback Steakhouse ad and there are no other big moments to talk about (unlike next week- spoiler!)

Without any further ado, here’s the current alliance chart as I see it, which was made on a free website and has me trying and failing to carefully align things, and I will thank you not to comment.

Solid lines indicate solid alliances. Dashed are shaky suballiances. Dotted are bonds made between the two main alliances.

Purple lines indicate alliances we saw formed on-screen or at least can surmise. Orange ones I am not entirely sure the state of, as it’s up in the air. Green ones are bonds that have talked strategy but are on opposite sides of the divide. The red/blue/gold ones are the ones that only have the original tribes confirmed between them, and majority aside I am unsure would be successful otherwise.

Majority Alliance (Old Levu and Yawa)

Chrissy Hofbeck

Connections: Ryan, Ben, JP (Concrete), Ashley (In The Air)

Chrissy is a woman of extremes- easily the most (seen) solid connections of the majority alliance and probably the furthest removed from Soko. Her ones with Ryan and JP I have faith will last as long as she wants them to. Ben also has no immediate desire to turn on her, but if he ever feels the need to I think he will have the most independence to. To the Sokos, they have clearly no desire to work with her. I don’t think they hate her, but I think five votes says they think she is the furthest removed from them and the one they would want to see go the most.

What Chrissy has to watch out for is Lauren and Devon. Perhaps Devon less so, but she’s already shown a cutthroat nature. Devon is tied to Ryan, but not to Chrissy, and if she cuts Devon she could lose Ryan. However, Lauren is probably the more extreme example. Lauren has nothing against the healers, and in fact originally wanted to stick with them. She is also aligned with Ben. If anyone can mobilize people against Chrissy, it’s the one who has ties towards those against her- and to one of her closest allies. If that ever happens, expect fireworks.

Ben Driebergen

Connections: Lauren, Chrissy (Concrete), Ashley (Tribal), JP (Tribal, Strained), Mike (crossover)

Ben has more alliances than Chrissy in general, but I wouldn’t say they’re as solid as hers. Sure, the one with Chrissy is, and the one with Lauren I believe is moreso. The others, however feel lacking. The tie to Ashley is based on tribes as she was a swing of opportunity, but Ben seems to have respect for her. The same can’t be said for JP, who was on the same tribe as Ben but close to being sent home by him. JP doesn’t know this because JP doesn’t know a lot of things, but Ben thinks he’s a tool and almost sent him home when they were Levu.

If anything, this is a flaw brought to light with Ben- he resents deeper than most on the season. I thought that Lauren would be immovable and inflexible (she promised as much in her cast video) but she shows desire to work with Soko. Ben, less so, especially after he essentially strung Cole along and made him apologize before proxy-voting him out. That’s petty as hell- and admittedly I like that from him, but I doubt that will make him friends. Even Mike was able to at least act friendly with Joe after Joe basically ostracized the shit out of him for shallow strategic gain.

Speaking of Mike, Mike is the in Ben has with original Soko. The two seem to like each other and respect each other. I think between Ben and Lauren, Ben is closer to Mike. Still, he’s also the one I think will spell the end for Mike’s tribesmates. Chrissy stated she doesn’t like Joe, and Ben that he can’t stand Cole. I think for the time being their interests will stay aligned.





JP Hilsabeck

Connections: Chrissy (Concrete), Ashley (In The Air), Ben (Tribal, Strained)

Sharing some riveting tri-tip tales with the boys, I’m sure.

JP’s connection to Chrissy is solid at the moment. However, of all the solid connections I trust it the least. Oh, I trust that JP will be loyal. He doesn’t know any other way to be. However, I think Chrissy will find the tie to him expendable, and of the ones she has, he would be the first to go. I would advise against it were I the angel on her shoulder, because JP is a great ally. Strong ally, unwavering loyalty, not respected, would lose a jury vote, and wouldn’t go dilly-dallying with any plans on his own. However, what could do him in is his clear lack of connections.

Other than Chrissy, JP obviously has the called out couple with Ashley, but I think that was only called out by Alan, barely a thing that exists. I think they could work well together but the perception of them as a pair seems far stronger than reality. There’s also of course his one-sided bond with Ben where he likes Ben and Ben barely hides that he thinks JP is a dork.

Of the main alliance, I still see him as the first to get turned on. He got no airtime this episode but he’s a strong man next to Chrissy who would be an easy sacrifice for many in the majority. I can’t see him making it past midmerge.

Ashley Nolan

Connections: Devon (Concrete), Chrissy, JP (In The Air), Ben (Tribal), Desi (crossover)

Aside from JP, each of OG Levu has one solid connection to OG Yawa. For Chrissy, it’s Ryan. For Ben, it’s Lauren. For Ashley, it’s Devon. They made a pair on new Levu even before Alan left, and seem to have stuck with each other. I don’t think lack of necessity will break it that easily. I wish I addressed it last week but my memory of things Ashley is struggling.

I already discussed the ones with Chrissy and JP, but with JP Ashley seems more acutely aware that they are scrutinized as a pair. Time will tell if the merge will see them visualized the same way, but Ben at least noticed that she defended JP in the tribal phase and could still see them as ironclad. She won’t be the first to go, though, because unlike JP she does have a few bonds.

Again, this is where her strongest pairing with Devon comes through. I think Devon will be a bit better connected to the core, and as such will be there to support her and bring her in even if the moves of her alliance push her out. She even has a bond with a Soko in Desi- though it was extremely circumstantial, it is an avenue nonetheless. Ashley has a good few avenues with people that others in her group do not, so even when one door closes another stays open.

Ryan Ulrich

Connections: Chrissy, Devon (Concrete), Lauren (Tribal, Uncertain)

For all Ryan talks about the social game, he has barely more connections than JP, the man he denigrates. True, two of his bonds are quite solid, but I do not know if he could reach the end with them both as I don’t know the state of Chrissy and Devon. Even if he did take those two to the end, would he win? Chrissy is seen more as the ringleader and Devon as the survivalist. I doubt his social game is strong enough to withstand scrutiny from the jury.

The bond between Chrissy and Ryan is unbreakable and seems to pan out in Chrissy’s favor. Ryan let go of Roark and Ali for her and her ally. Chrissy has to see Ryan as good for her game, but I also see Ryan settling on decisions she isn’t okay with but has to follow along with to chase after the check pinned to his ass. If she does that, the check is gonna shrink from a million to a hundred grand pretty damn quick.

Ryan is a strange mix of independent thinker and complete follower, and I think both sides are displayed in both relationships. With Chrissy he tends to clear the path for her, with Devon he takes a domineering role. As he said on day one, he thinks he is a much better strategist than Devon and I cannot see Devon objecting. Devon does seem smart enough to do his own thing. If he will is another story.

As it stands, Ryan is locked into two ironclad deals. There’s also Lauren, who he had to share a tribe with, but recall that Ryan took offense to Lauren referring to him as an oddball and was close to voting her out. At any rate, I don’t expect that to last. However, the person with the most power in the game and the biggest shield both see him as a loyal ally. Like it or not (I don’t) Ryan is going to last for a long time.

Devon Pinto

Connections: Ryan, Ashley (Concrete), Lauren (Tribal), Desi (crossover)

Devon is interesting in that he has ties only to secondary people- whether they are under another (Ryan), are on the outer spectrum (Ashley) or are in the other alliance altogether. As I said, Devon is closer to the core than Ashley, but his loyalties keep his focus in areas others do not have their full attention on. Ashley I think he can pull away with due to their solid New Levu connection, and while his tie with Desi is very, very weak I do not think Desi would object to working with them.

However, I cannot see him turning on Ryan. I think his loyalty will lead to him being caught in between two sides when the game gets down to brass tacks. He doesn’t seen like the type to easily turn on people, but I don’t see him having much choice. Chrissy and Ryan seem like the type to cut ties with allies, and Ashley is the type who would be cut. I think if it comes down to that he has the tools to stage a flip. However, I am not sure he’ll open the toolbox.

Lauren Rimmer

Connections: Ben (Concrete) Devon (Tribal), Ryan (Tribal, Uncertain). Mike (crossover)

I won’t delude myself and say that Lauren has the strongest connections in the world. While her bond with Ben is tight her others are very circumstantial and/or flimsy. While I would hope in my wildest dreams that the aptly compared SnakesRatsGoats-approved Statler and Waldorf trio of Ben, Lauren, and Mike would get together, Mike voting with the healers does damper that. However, what Lauren has that even Ben does not is that she is open to working with the healers.

In her ideal world she would have. While I cannot see how a 5-1-1 majority would ever work for her as a one, she does have the opportunity to be flexible, while Ben is even in the NToS yelling at Joe. If anyone crosses the bridge with Mike, it’s gonna be Lauren. Even if Ben is friendlier to Mike, Lauren is more available to work with. The same goes for all the healers- though I think Joe and Cole are lost causes regardless, if they have an avenue with anyone it’s Lauren.

Her connections with her original tribesmates are weaker and less advantageous than her ones with those outside of her tribe. Ryan I think has no use for her and her back- though we didn’t see her react to him voting off Ali, I can’t imagine that didn’t escape her. Devon seems more keen to her, and even convinced Ryan to save her in the Patrick boot episode, but I doubt going forward Lauren is a priority for him.

One thing notable about Lauren is her ability to tolerate bullshit but never support it. When someone condescends to her she will say something and let everyone know how she feels, but doesn’t go out of her way to act on it. I’m reminded of HvV Sandra making sure everyone knew she couldn’t stand Russell’s unwashed ass but still voting with him. This gives Lauren flexibility to move but gives others the perception that she knows what she has to deal with and isn’t about to take it sitting down.

Original Soko

Cole Medders and Joe Mena

Connections (Cole): Desi (Tribal), Joe, Mike (Tribal, Strained)

Connections (Joe): Desi, Cole, Mike (Tribal, Strained)

I put these two together because… come on. Really? Like, really? These two have no shot in the game. The fact that they’re even aligned with people is a formality. Joe tried to frame Mike, Mike has no respect for Cole, Desi was thinking about turning on Joe and got emotional over thinking he was a weak end in her game. Not only that, but they’re in a horse race to see who is most disrespected by the majority. Cole gets ahead by a hair because his tie to Desi is less strained, and because Joe is such a showoff who makes it clear he thinks he is strategic and dangerous. Still, if they aren’t the next two boots either there’s some advantage fuckery, they win immunity, or I eat shit.

Desi Williams

Connections: Cole, Mike (Tribal), Joe (Tribal, Strained), Ashley, Devon (crossover)

Desi is probably the most put-together Soko. The most adept, the most adaptable, the most logically sane and sound, and apparently the most athletic. I don’t know if she is more easily used than Mike by the majority, but she is the hardest to get rid of.

I actually think that her game is reflected by how she talks in and out of confessional. That is to say, that even as this is a game that strips away your core and makes you reactive, Desi still measures every word and action like she did in her bio video. She’s still the young professor showing how much she has earned and deserved that title. I think it shows her level of rationality is stronger than it has any right to be at this point.

I think she’ll do what she needs to so she can win and be able to tolerate a lot of ugliness on the way over. I think she can access her bond with Ashley and somewhat Devon, but I think that while there is no reason the others would want her out, they might see her as someone they have to vote out. Her best hope then is that her tie with those two has some weight to it.

Mike Zahalsky

Connections: Desi (Tribal), Joe, Cole (Tribal, Strained) Ben, Lauren (Crossover)

Mike I have no clue what to make of. We all thought he would be a nebbish Davidesque dork, but we were wrong. He’s at once tenacious, aggressive, snarky, self-reliant, kindhearted, self-deprecating, and accomplished. Can someone teach him how to do better bios because I never would have called liking him as much as I do early on, or having this much faith in him.

I keep qualifying my statements, but while on paper Desi is most likely to avoid a vote-out, Mike is the one I think will do it. I know I am not a special snowflake for thinking this, but it’s clear that somehow he gets out of this. How will he do it? Easy.

He has little association with the other Sokos. Joe is aware that Mike knows how much Joe was trying to fuck him over and can laugh it off and get to work now, but even then it’s clear that Mike was the Joe Mena punching bag. Cole respects Mike more than the vice versa where Mike partook in shit talking him. Desi I have no read on, they were literally on the same tribe once. I think that Mike is separate from the other Sokos in perception and therefore is more accessible. Probably he would be last to attract votes. His idol. Even if worst comes to worst he has that going for him to save him from a full Soko Pagonging. However, I think he will be able to use it to showcase his loyalties. If he plays it on Soko members, he is a Soko. If he plays it to advance him and other allies, he has officially crossed over. It can be a great infiltration device if he uses it correctly. He has the best odds to slip into a new alliance. Even as old Soko falls away he has pretty decent ties to Ben and Lauren, beyond the pale. Add to that where, as stated, Lauren is open to work with people from Soko, and Mike has a future longer than Soko.

It’ll be tricky and fearful for sure, but Mike can hack it. And if he can crack them, he stands a chance of getting close to the end- and for my money, winning.

Jessica Johnston

That would be everyone, but I’m gonna do something I should have done last week (were it not going to be an hour of griping about Ryan to the point of being doxxed anyways)- eulogize the fallen. Jessica absolutely deserves it, because already her reputation is going from “cool, clever strategist with a deeper showmance pairing with Cole” to “horny virgin who went after the D and didn’t play the game”, a de-evolution that pretends she was never good quite like people did with Hali. I’m not having it.

(Well, there’s also the idea that she’s the unfair target of women hating shrew Chrissy. Though I could argue for ten pages about how BS it is that so called feminists are angry that a woman had control of her fate in a way they don’t like, this article is long enough as it is.)

Jessica surprised me as she was more than I expected. I expected a pretty enjoyable, pretty neat character, but instead she was a great one. She had a good head on her shoulders, was funny, relatable, and very open with her emotions. Unlike other one-TC merge wonders like RC and Nickfear, Jessica could do some damage. Unfortunately her downfall was simple yet defeating- trusting Cole.

I declared that Jessicole could be better than Jonclyn. Yeah, that was a bit optimistic. I would still give them high marks, as a much better Figtails. They were sweeter, more complex, and more precocious, as I keep saying. It went beyond the basic story of “dumbass guy gets his girlfriend voted out”, but it showed how Jessica was a kind, naive soul who trusted Cole far past his expiration date.

After the merge, when Joe was correctly suspected to have an idol and Cole went off and everyone thought he might have an idol too, Chrissy (who was labeled as the target and was getting five votes, so she was in danger, and probably paranoid of being idoled out, you know, since she was gonna get votes), helped decide to go after Jessica, Cole’s handler and least likely to have an idol.

(Jessica has said in post-game media that she got the sense that Chrissy was competitive against other women and would want to be the last one standing. You know what? I trust that Jessica got that impression from Chrissy. Maybe others on the cast do too. They are much more qualified to speak than armchair psychologists.)

It didn’t help that Jessica was essentially giving out garbage deals and was never going to break loyalty from the Healers. Jeff says she may come back for Second Chances though I think he has said that about literally everyone. More than anyone, Jessica deserves it, to show if she’s learned any lessons from her first, lesson-filled stint.

More than anything, and I may have said this, I like Jessica because I have experience with nurses. Longtime fans of my articles (which I can count on two hands now!) are aware that I’ve been struggling with cancer, cancer treatment, all that extremely fun shite. I’ve done many a stint inpatient for up to several weeks, which always sucks and is a boring waste of time, and I may have actually planned my escape route during them.

What kept me sane, however, were the nurses, and Jessica was a dead ringer for all of them. She could have worked at my hospital and I could have run into her, so familiar is she. She’s personable, kind, good-humored, off the cuff, self deprecating, and immediately a full fleshed out person and not just a caretaker. More than anything, nurses like those kept me from parachuting out a window with my bedsheets. I’ve always fantasized about seeing someone I knew on Survivor. Though I didn’t personally know Jessica, I knew her in my own way, and I absolutely loved her.

Next time on… Survivor.

A season like this, whether good or bad, spends the merge episode deciding who is the majority and minority, then spends the episode after sifting through the aftermath. It’s electric when people on either side just outright resent each other and feel a dogged need to outlast the other. This next episode has that in spades.

This I gotta see.

-Cameron

P.S. An actual P.S. this time! This upcoming week will be very busy for me and I may not get an article out this week. But I plan to try, and definitely don’t wanna ghost the rest of the season. Naw, I’m gonna finish one. That’s my plan and I am sticking to it.