AUSTIN — Former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez on Tuesday cruised into a Democratic runoff for governor against Houston investor Andrew White.

In a nine-candidate field of Democrats, Valdez attracted the most votes, though not the majority needed to avoid a runoff.

Valdez posted big numbers in Dallas, her adopted home, and in San Antonio, where she grew up. She also had support in heavily Hispanic South Texas, where she ran a Spanish-language radio ad in the race's final week.

White couldn't catch up, though he ran most strongly in areas along the Gulf Coast such as Harris County, his home. In a low-dollar TV advertising campaign, he featured how last summer he used his fishing boat to rescue Hurricane Harvey victims.

"My fellow Democrats, if winning in November is important to you, I'm your candidate," he told supporters in Houston late Tuesday.

Running third, but far behind Valdez and White in early returns, was Balch Springs Mayor Cedric Davis Sr., who had nearly 8 percent of the vote. Perennial candidate Grady Yarbrough of San Antonio was the only other candidate to draw more than 5 percent.

The May 22 runoff will decide whether Valdez or White gets to face off against incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott this fall.

Bright spots for Democrats

Abbott is the prohibitive favorite, although Democrats this year can point to a few bright spots — even in Texas, noted Southern Methodist University political scientist Matthew Wilson.

The eventual Democratic nominee might benefit from a tailwind created by President Donald Trump's sagging poll ratings. In Austin and Washington, Democrats are out of power. That and Trump's unpredictability haunt all Republicans, Wilson said.

"Midterms are always dicey for the party that controls the presidency," he said.

Another potential aid to Valdez or White could lie in the fine print of a bill the GOP-controlled Legislature passed last year, Wilson said.

The lawmakers decided to abolish straight-ticket voting, but not until September 2020.

Straight-ticket voting could be important if Democrats turn out strongly this fall, he said.

1 / 6Andrew White, left, a Democratic candidate for governor, talks to a television reporter before an election watch party at Raven Tower in Houston on Tuesday, March 6, 2018. (Jon Shapley/Houston Chronicle) 2 / 6Candidate for Governor Lupe Valdez congratulates candidate for Dallas District Attorney John Creuzot during an election watch party for the Dallas County Democrats at a Democratic party gathering at Dallasite in Dallas on Tuesday, March 6, 2018. (Ashley Landis/The Dallas Morning News) 3 / 6Senator Royce West, left, congratulates candidate for governor Lupe Valdez as she speaks at an election watch party for the Dallas County Democrats at Dallasite bar and billiards in Dallas, Tuesday, March 6, 2018. (Ben Torres / Special Contributor) 4 / 6Gubernatorial Candidate Lupe Valdez and State Senator Royce West leave the podium during a watching party at the Dallasite on Tuesday, March 6, 2018.(Rex C. Curry / Special Contributor) 5 / 6Gubernatorial candidate and former Dallas Sheriff Lupe Valdez greets Phillip Huffines, who is running for Texas Senate, outside a polling place at Allen City Hall and on primary election day on Tuesday, March 6, 2018 in Allen, Texas. (Ashley Landis / Staff Photographer) 6 / 6Gubernatorial candidate and former Dallas Sheriff Lupe Valdez greets voters and campaigners outside a polling place at Allen City Hall and on primary election day on Tuesday, March 6, 2018 in Allen, Texas. (Ashley Landis / Staff Photographer)

Abbott's assets

But Abbott has scads of money and decent job ratings in various polls, noted Sherri Greenberg, clinical professor of state and local government at the University of Texas at Austin's Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs.

"Is he popular among everyone? No," she said of Abbott. "But he is generally popular."

Top-tier Texas Democrats such as former U.S. Housing and Urban Affairs Secretary Julián Castro, who taught a seminar on policy development at the LBJ School last fall, passed up the race because of Abbott's political standing and his enormous campaign fund, Greenberg said.

"You saw lots of Democrats jump into either open seats, or look at what Beto [O'Rourke's] doing," she said of the El Paso congressman challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. "But that is not running for governor against Abbott."

Greenberg said challenging a Republican as well-financed and skilled as Abbott is like pushing a boulder uphill.

Gubernatorial candidates Lupe Valdez and Andrew White greet each other before a Democratic gubernatorial candidate forum hosted by Tom Green County Democratic Club in January at the San Angelo Museum of Fine Arts in San Angelo. (Ashley Landis / Staff Photographer)

'Identity politics' and debates

In their 11-week runoff, Valdez must be considered the favorite over White, said SMU's Wilson.

"Valdez is well-positioned, given the nature of what the Texas Democratic Party has become, with [her] ready outreach into the Latino community and the gay and lesbian community," he said. "Putting together those kinds of 'identity politics' constituencies of activists, that goes a long way."

White, son of the late Gov. Mark White, probably will seek several debates with Valdez, Wilson said.

"He has to focus on his claim that he would be more electable," Wilson explained. "And he has to emphasize that he has got a better, deeper command of the policy issues that face Texas."

Abbott can afford to play it safe — and wait to see if Valdez and White's battle generates animosity and division.

"That could help him," Wilson said of Abbott.

UT's Greenberg, a former Democratic member of the Texas House from Travis County, said Abbott might decide he can afford to deny Valdez or White a chance to debate him this fall.

She noted that former GOP Gov. Rick Perry, in his 2010 re-election contest with Democrat Bill White, said he wouldn't debate because White had not released enough tax returns. Four years earlier, the Perry camp negotiated the televised debates to be held on a Friday night before the big college rivalry game between Texas and Oklahoma.

Money, momentum

Absent a major gaffe by Abbott, "he's going to be in a very, very strong position," said SMU's Wilson.

Since last July, Abbott has raised $11.7 million and spent nearly $12.9 million. As of late last month, Abbott had more than $41 million in the bank.

Valdez didn't start her fundraising until December. She has raised slightly less than $195,000. Of that, $25,000 was her own money.

White has raised just under $1.5 million, but more than $1 million of it was a loan he made. He left more than $940,000 in the bank for the runoff.

It costs $4 million a week, though, to run a statewide TV ad blitz.

"The only thing that could swamp Abbott is a massive Democratic tidal wave where there's just so much Democratic straight-ticket voting, [it] carries all the Democrats into office," Wilson said.