November 16, 2015

Exports contracted 21.0% in October over the same month last year, which was more pronounced than the 17.6% drop seen in September. October’s result marked the sixth consecutive double-digit loss. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, dropped 16.9% in October (September: -12.0% year-on-year). Oil and gas exports contracted a staggering 42.8% (September: -44.6% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 27.8% in October, which was greater than the 25.7% contraction seen in September.



The trade surplus held around September’s 1.0 billion in October. This result contrasted the USD 35 million deficit recorded in the same month of 2014 and exceed the USD 700 million surplus the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance increased from a USD 6.9 billion surplus in September to a USD 7.9 billion surplus in October.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to fall 8.0% and see the trade balance reaching a surplus of USD 11.7 billion in 2015. For 2016, the panel expects exports to grow 3.6% and expects the trade surplus to reach USD 10.7 billion.