Polish voters go to the polls on Sunday in an election that could have repercussions on David Cameron’s EU referendum plans. Here’s what you need to know

Poland holds elections to its lower house, the Sejm, and its senate, on Sunday.

How the country votes will have repercussions well beyond Warsaw – from the role Poland will play in Europe’s refugee crisis to David Cameron’s chances of successfully renegotiating Britain’s status in the European Union before holding an in/out referendum.

Poland was the only EU nation to avoid recession and it remains one of Europe’s fastest growing economies. But if the polls are right, the country could see its first change of government in eight years, with a clear lead for the rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party.

Here is a guide to what you need to know before Sunday’s vote.



Who gets to sit in Poland’s parliament?

The 460 members of the Sejm are elected through proportional representation in 41 constituencies.



Political parties need to pass a 5% threshold to enter parliament, while the threshold for coalitions is 8%. There is no threshold for national minorities.

The senate’s 100 members are elected using first-past-the-post in single-member districts.

What are the main political parties?

Civic Platform (PO) – a centre-right party led by the current Polish prime minister, Ewa Kopacz. She became Poland’s second female premier when she assumed the office last year, taking over from Donald Tusk, who was appointed president of the European council.

PO has been the main party of government since 2007.

Law and Justice (PiS) – a rightwing party founded in 2001 by the Kaczyński twins, Lech and Jarosław, who have respectively served as Poland’s president and prime minister. Lech died in a plane crash in 2010, while Jarosław is now the party’s chairman.

PiS’s candidate for prime minister in this election is Beata Szydło. She has been a member of parliament since 2005. The party’s Andrzej Duda won the Polish presidential election earlier this year.



PiS is a member of the Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists, a European parliament grouping that includes the British Conservatives.

Andrzej Duda victory in Polish presidential election signals shift to right Read more

Polish People’s Party (PSL) – a centre-right party, currently the junior partner in the PO-led coalition government. The PSL and the Civic Platform are members of the European People’s party, the largest in the European parliament.

United Left (ZL) – a centre-left electoral alliance that was formed in July by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) and smaller groups including Your Movement (which in turn was founded by a former Civic Platform MP – Polish politics can get very messy) – the Polish Socialist party and the Greens.

The Social Democrats have not been electorally competitive since 2001 when the SLD topped the polls and Leszek Miller became prime minister. In the three parliamentary elections held since, the SLD won 11.3%, 13.2% and 8.2% of the vote.

Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic – Freedom and Hope (KORWiN) – a rightwing Eurosceptic party. Its MEPs sit in the same European parliament grouping as the Swedish Democrats and the UK Independence party (Ukip).

Kukiz’15 – an anti-establishment movement led by the singer Paweł Kukiz. Kukiz won 21% of the vote in presidential elections held earlier this year, finishing third.

One of Kukiz’15’s main campaign issues was electoral reform, which was the object of a referendum held earlier in September. But only 8% of voters turned out, and support for the party has dropped since.

Modern – a centrist liberal party founded in May by the former World Bank economist Ryszard Petru.

Partia Razem - a social democratic party founded this year. The party has been polling below the threshold to enter parliament, but its leader Adrian Zandberg was considered by many commentators as the winner of a recent televised debate.

What happened at the last election?

In 2011, the Civic Platform emerged as the largest party, winning just under 40% of the vote and 207 seats. Tusk became the first Polish prime minister since the fall of communism to win a second term. And the PO renewed its coalition with the PSL.

What do the polls say now?

Since the last election, Polish public opinion has shifted further to the right. Last November, Law and Justice finished just ahead of Civic Platform in a nationwide electoral contest for the first time in 10 years. A PiS candidate then went on to win the presidency in May – and the party goes into Sunday’s election with a commanding lead in the polls.

Based on these figures, an outright majority is within Law and Justice’s reach.

However, no single party in post-communism Poland has ever achieved a majority. And should PiS fall short of the needed 231 seats, it may struggle to form a coalition and a PO-led “anyone against PiS” coalition could squeak in.

A lot will depend on which parties pass the threshold needed to enter parliament.

Possible Law and Justice coalition partners could be KORWiN or Kukiz’15, but both are polling perilously close to the 5% required to win seats in the Sejm. All other parliamentary parties would, on paper at least, seem unlikely bedfellows.

But whoever forms the next government, it is all but certain that Poland’s next prime minister will be a woman.

The number of women in the Sejm has increased by more than 80% over the past 20 years to 111. Despite the increase in numbers, however, only one in four members of the outgoing parliament are women.

What’s voter turnout in Poland like?

It tends to be low. There are 30.7 million eligible voters in Poland, making it the sixth largest electorate among the EU’s 28 member states. However, when it comes to actually voting, turnout in Poland is among the lowest in Europe.

At last year’s European parliament elections, turnout was 23.8%. Only in Slovakia (13%) and in the Czech Republic (18.2%) did a smaller proportion of the electorate cast a ballot.

In 2011’s parliamentary elections, turnout was 48.9%. And in only two of the seven votes held since 1991 has turnout passed the 50% mark.

How do I follow election day?

Polling stations open at 7am (0500 GMT) on Sunday and close at 9pm. Exit polls will follow. Final results, which are not expected until Monday, will be published on the National Electoral Commission’s website.



The Guardian will be liveblogging the election, and you can follow the paper’s Alex Duval Smith on Twitter @AlexDuvalsmith for updates and reactions throughout the day.

Correction: this article was amended on 22 October. It previously said that Ewa Kopacz was Poland’s first female prime minister. She is in fact Poland’s second female prime minister. The first was Hanna Suchocka who was prime minister in 1992-1993.

Update: Partia Razem was added to the list of parties contesting the election.