Thank goodness the Angels finally remembered how to play baseball again! It helps that the team is finally somewhat healthy *knock on wood. * A huge difference has been the pitching. Shohei of course, GRich is decent, the bullpen is (mostly) good, but a great depth guy has been Tyler Skaggs. Previously, I propositioned for the Angels to trade Skaggs, but I have changed course—I think that’s fair, considering what he’s done so far compared to his previous body of work. What is especially good for the Angels is that Skaggs is pitching rather sustainability as well.

Let’s dive into the numbers. In previous starts, the change in pitch calling has been highlighted significantly. First, he’s been using his fastball 40.5% of the time, down from 55.1% in 2017. When your fastball clocks at roughly 93 mph, you’re probably going to want to use it less. Unless you can locate that pitch almost 100% of the time, there’s no reason to be using the fastball so much. So, that’s the first positive of his performance.

Second, his other pitches are being used more, as one would expect if he’s throwing less fastballs than before. Sinker usage is up nearly 9%, and changeup and curveball usage have improved as well. We’ve seen this story before. Pitcher uses mediocre fastball less, starts uses secondary pitches more to improve. There’s a reason that narrative has become popular; Skaggs is following in the footsteps of Jake Arrieta and others who are realizing that a fastball isn’t everything.

As a result of using these pitches more often, Skaggs has increased his Groundball to Flyball rate to 1.67 (for every flyball, there is 1.67 groundballs), which is significantly higher than his career numbers in the major leagues. Generally, groundball pitchers tend to have more success. That’s not to say that flyball pitchers are bad, but more groundballs equal more singles and GIDPs as opposed to extra base hits or potentially home runs. Speaking of which, Skaggs’ groundball rate has shot up from 41.8 to 50.9% and his flyball rate has fallen from 36.7% to 30.6%. These rates are indicative of how the change in pitching has led to better outcomes for his pitches.

This is all fine and dandy, but how do we know Skaggs won’t regress to his previous behavior? Well, we don’t have all the answers, obviously, but his current ERA is 3.08. His expected FIP (pitching without the inclusion of fielding) is 3.43 and his SIERA (skill-interactive ERA, which incorporates balls put into play as opposed to strikeouts, walks, and homeruns like FIP incorporates) is 3.55. Why do these numbers matter? Considering that his FIP and SIERA are a little higher than his ERA, we’re due for a little bit of regression, but not enough to turn him back into a pumpkin. These numbers are very good for a pitcher whose career expected FIP has never been much lower than 4.

Need more information? Skaggs is currently striking out batters at a very good rate. He currently average 9.24 strikeouts per 9 innings and allowing 2.61 walks per 9 innings. He’s striking out more batters and walking less batters, which is vital for longevity within games and success throughout the season. So, a (overly) simple formula to becoming a better pitcher: strike out more batters, give out less free passes, and give up less home runs. Easy.

A word of caution: We are due for regression. Skaggs isn’t going to continue to pitch at a 3.08 ERA. That’s damn good for a guy who was thought to be a 4th or 5th pitcher in the rotation, and a 3.5 ERA would be just fine too. That’s excellent production from a back-end rotation pitcher. Plus, there’s always going to be the question of his health. More groundballs is great and all, but that means more stress on the elbow and the arm. The Halos haven’t been great at preventing those kinds of injuries. So, approach what appears to be the early signs of a breakout season with caution. Maybe he’s getting lucky and teams will adjust. Maybe he’s going to get hurt. Maybe it’s Maybelline. But enjoy the ride for now.

*All stats come from Fangraphs* **Please let me know what I can do to improve as a writer! Any tips would be appreciated.**



