The brash billionaire businessman and the brilliant neurosurgeon appear to have little in common — except that neither has ever made a formal run for public office, not even school board.

But Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson, making the bold play to be president of the United States, have morphed from a pair of neophyte longshots — curiosities, really — into a pair of Republican outsiders crushing veteran politicians in the polls.

“It’s all born of frustration,” GOP strategist Sal Russo, a co-founder of the Tea Party Express, says of the unexpected success of Trump and Carson. Increasingly, voters believe that “nothing goes on in Washington that benefits them, that it’s an insulated community and real people get left out in the cold. ... They don’t feel like politicians listen to them, no matter who they elect.”

Just how deep is that distrust appears to be confirmed in the most recent Monmouth University poll, which has Trump leading the GOP pack of 17 candidates at 30 percent, and Carson, who is in San Francisco on Tuesday for fundraising and a sold-out appearance the Commonwealth Club, a ways back at 18 percent but still 10 points ahead of anybody else.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, once considered the best bet for the GOP nomination, comes limping in at 8 percent, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, just weeks ago the Republican rising star, has faded into near oblivion at 3 percent, the poll showed.

“The one common factor here is anger and angst about Washington, D.C.,” says David McCuan, professor of political science at Sonoma State University.

Relishing outsider status

Despite wildly different styles, both Trump and Carson wear the mantle that may define the campaign, which looks increasingly like it could turn on who best represents “the antipolitician, the anti-D.C. type.”

While Trump’s money and media savvy as a reality TV star have long made him a household name, the rise of the former director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins University has defied all political expectations. Carson, who retired in 2013, became a conservative cause celebre when he openly challenged what he called “political correctness” while sitting just feet from President Obama at a National Prayer Breakfast that year.

With an active social media network and a loyal following of religious conservatives who have dug into their pockets for small donations, Carson, formerly most recognized for separating conjoined twins, has forged a reputation as the “anti-Trump” who eschews shock value for civility.

Carson’s campaign spokesman, Doug Watts, who served as communications director to former Gov. George Deukmejian and was on Ronald Reagan’s gubernatorial staff, says he’s not surprised at the neurosurgeon’s crowd appeal, even in solidly blue California. More than any other GOP candidate, he argues, Carson has built his appeal in the “happy warrior” model of Reagan himself.

“He’s not over the top, like somebody we’re accustomed to,” he says with an oblique reference to the front-runner.

While Carson and Trump “may have similar themes from the same song book, it’s in a different key,” Watts says. Carson is “the slow and steady tortoise,” he says. “He’s a civil person, a quiet person, and he’s very smart.”

But he is also “a very focused person with a very, very strong faith in God,” Watts says of his candidate, who has been both an elder and a teacher in the Seventh-day Adventist church in which he was raised.

Like Trump, who has jumped from Reform Party to Democrat and then to Republican, Carson can’t brag of being a lifelong member of the Grand Old Party. Indeed, “he wasn’t a Republican until several years ago” — November 2014, to be exact — and “he has a shade of libertarianism,” Watts says.

And even as Trump insists that America is on the downslide, Carson is sticking stubbornly to an optimistic tone. “It’s not antigovernment, it’s “‘Let’s get control of government instead of it taking control of us.’”

That has clearly struck a chord. While two outsiders have managed to beat the Republicans at their own game, the race isn’t over yet: That same Monmouth University poll has Carson beating Trump 55 percent to 36 percent if the two were to square off.

Back to Gallery Voter mistrust of Washington insiders elevates Trump, Carson 3 1 of 3 Photo: Danny Johnston, Associated Press 2 of 3 Photo: Richard Drew, Associated Press 3 of 3 Photo: Richard Shiro, Associated Press





Carson has accumulated almost 2.7 million fans on Facebook, a 2.2 million jump since February alone, Watts says. The retired surgeon has taken in $400,000 in donations since March 3, with most checks under $200, he says. Now, he’s amassed almost $20 million — $6 million of it this summer, when GOP politics have been dominated by Trump.

Tough road for Carson

GOP consultant Robert Molnar, who advised California gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner in 2008, says that while Carson’s strategy has been effective, the doctor will have a tough job besting the billionaire.

Trump has marshaled a savvy mix of populist appeal and sheer political bravura, Molnar says. The outsider’s swagger, humor and style, along with a peppering of tough talk and insults, have established him firmly as “the alpha male in the pack,” one who appears to have cowed the rest of the Republican hopefuls, even renowned tough guys like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Molnar says.

He predicts that now that he has dominance over the field, Trump will morph into a 2.0 version, a “more statesmanlike” candidate who will broaden his appeal and boost his poll numbers even further.

Democrats, watching the show, are in awe.

Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, a Chronicle columnist, admits he once viewed Trump and Carson as a mere political freak show, and he marvels that both have taken center stage in the GOP race. Three months ago, Brown predicted that Jeb Bush would be the GOP nominee. Today, he’s betting on Trump.

The rise of both political neophytes, Brown says, may herald a sea change that could carry more political outsiders into power, an idea that clearly makes the political establishment nervous.

The newcomers are looking like winners, “but only if you’re a Republican,” he quips. “The Democrats still like experience.”

Carla Marinucci is The San Francisco Chronicle’s senior political writer. E-mail: cmarinucci@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @cmarinucci Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat: carlamarinucci