The rising NDP is locked in a dead heat with the Liberal Party nationally, each lagging 10 points behind the Conservatives, a new poll finds.

As Canadians head into the Easter weekend before the final push to election day, the EKOS-iPolitics survey of decided voters shows the Conservatives holding a firm lead with 34.4 per cent support across the country, while the Liberals and NDP each draw 24.7 per cent support. The Green Party sits at 7.8 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 6.5 per cent and other parties at 1.9 per cent.

Pollster Frank Graves said NDP Leader Jack Layton is enjoying new heights of support thanks to direct gains from the Bloc Québécois and a collapse of Green Party support across the country. “It’s hard to say if this will sustain itself,” he said, “but this is certainly a very real, very profound move for the NDP.”

Gaining strength with younger voters and women who are now firming up their choice, Layton’s numbers are reaching support the party hasn’t seen since the days of Ed Broadbent, Graves said. In 1988, Broadbent led the party to a record high of 43 seats, though he failed to make a breakthrough in Quebec.

This time, the most stunning numbers for the party are in Quebec, where the NDP has emerged as the top choice in the province with 31.4 per cent support of decided voters — leapfrogging the Bloc Québécois, which now trails at 27.2 per cent. The NDP is running in first or second place in all regions except Ontario and the Maritimes.

As the numbers stand, Graves doesn’t see a majority government in the cards for the Conservatives, which opens a whole range of scenarios after the election. Much will depend on final seat counts and whether the Conservatives wind up with a strengthened, stable or weakened minority, Graves said.

The poll shows Conservatives in the lead in Ontario with 38.1 per cent compared to the Liberals at 34 per cent, while the NDP sits at 19.5 per cent and the Greens at 6.3 per cent.

The poll surveyed 2,156 adult Canadians, including 1,981 decided voters, April 18-20, 2011. Results are considered accurate within plus or minus 2.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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