It’s been an interesting couple of weeks for me; plodding up and down the 401 endlessly in the quest for gainful employment, my first quasi-homeless experience (shout-out 271 Earl for providing me with a spot to lay my head to rest). However, things are finally settling down a little and I’ve managed to sequester myself in the depths of a Yorkville coffee shop, so let’s get to it.

If you missed my earlier Nathan MacKinnon season review, it can be found here. Follow me on Twitter here. If you have some sort of vendetta against semi-colons, I’d suggest turning back while you still can.

Introduction

Matt Duchene was born in the township of Dysart et al, and grew up playing minor hockey for his local Haliburton Huskies. Duchene eventually made the move to the OMHA’s Central Ontario Wolves AAA squad, managing to record a spectacular 106 points in 52 games during the 2006-2007 season. His offensive prowess and strong two-way play caught the eye of OHL scouts, and he was selected 5th overall by the Brampton Battalion in the 2007 OHL Priority Selection Draft, 4 spots behind future teammate Ryan O’Reilly.

Duchene recorded 30 goals and 50 points during his standout rookie campaign for the Battalion, before improving to 79 points in 57 games in 2008-2009 while draft-eligible. Duchene also added 26 points in the 2009 post-season, helping the Battalion to the J. Ross Robertson Cup Finals where they were defeated by the eventual Memorial Cup champion, the Windsor Spitfires. Entering the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, Duchene was ranked second among North American skaters, and was eventually selected third overall after John Tavares and Victor Hedman had gone off the board. Duchene, a lifelong Avalanche supporter himself, quickly acquitted himself to Avs fans after footage of him fist-pumping following Tampa’s selection of Hedman began to circulate the internet.

Duchene has been an offensive stalwart for the Avalanche throughout his entire career. His stellar play during the October of his rookie season forced the Avalanche to keep him with the big club and he’s been one of the go-to guys ever since, having led the team in scoring 3 of his 6 NHL seasons. Although Duchene occasionally struggles to consistently produce at the elite level he’s capable of, his skating ability, on-ice vision and slick handles make him a threat whenever he’s on the ice. For better or worse, Duchene is the yardstick by which performance (and value) is measured on the Colorado Avalanche, and that will hold true for at least another season given MacKinnon’s progress thus far.

Data and Discussion

We’ll open with a game-by-game breakdown of Duchene’s 2014-2015 season, as was the case for Nathan MacKinnon’s review.

Usage

Duchene spent most of his time alongside new arrival Jarome Iginla, playing the majority of 53 of his 82 games with the veteran right wing, in addition to portions of many others. Historical precedent suggests that this should be quite a formidable pairing; the creative, pass-oriented Duchene providing service to Iginla, who had scored at least 30 goals in each of his previous 12 full seasons.

Beyond the Iginla-Duchene pairing, little else was consistent. Ryan O’Reilly spent time on both of Duchene’s wings during the early portion of the season, but the partnership that was so productive for the Avalanche during the 2013-2014 season was ultimately broken up so that O’Reilly could play pivot to Landeskog and MacKinnon. John Mitchell spent time with Duchene, but anchored the third line as a centreman more often than not. Talbot, a journeyman bottom-6er, was a poor Jamie McGinn imitation at best.

It’s clear that this gaping hole on Duchene’s left wing is an issue that the Avalanche must resolve in order to be successful moving forward. Tanguay might suffice in the short-term, but he plays a very similar game to Duchene and isn’t getting any younger. Duchene would certainly benefit from a permanent linemate cast in the mold of Jamie McGinn or Ryan O’Reilly; a physical puck retriever who can provide a net-front presence. Perhaps this issue can be addressed in the first round of the 2016 draft; Mikko Rantanen figures to be Iginla’s successor on Duchene’s right side, and the two of them could certainly benefit from a trigger-happy complementary piece on their left.

Duchene played an average of 18.46 min/game* (~18:27), up slightly from 18.40 (18:24) in 2013-2014, but well below a career high of 21.04 (~21:02) in 2012-2013. It’s possible that Duchene’s 2012 TOI was inflated by the lessened physical demands of the lockout-shortened season, and a quick glance at his career usage suggests that he was relied upon heavily while shorthanded, a role that was unfamiliar to Duchene during other seasons. Duchene’s power play TOI jumped from 2.14 min/game (~2:08) in 2013-2014 to 2.72 min/game (~2:43) in 2014-2015, but fell short of his career high of 2.99 min/game (~2:59), recorded during his rookie season.

Unfortunately, the Avalanche boasted the league’s second-lowest conversion rate with the extra attacker out and Duchene’s production suffered accordingly, which is a topic I’ll touch on below. Duchene’s time on the man advantage waned noticeably during the later portion of the season, which is consistent with the hypothesis that referees are slightly less willing to pull out their whistles later in the season, but also suggests that he might’ve fallen slightly out of favour with Roy. Duchene played a minimal number of shorthanded minutes during the 2014-2015 season which is consistent with his historical usage, 2012-2013 aside.

*All TOI data via War On Ice

Production

Again, shot metrics are the most repeatable measures of skill for which we have good information. The Avalanche were routinely out-shot while Duchene was on the ice, often by a very large margin. In fact, there were only six stretches of games during the 2014-2015 in which the Avalanche WEREN’T out-shot while Duchene was playing, none of them lengthy. Duchene’s Corsi Plus/Minus and WOWY (discussed below) confirm that he himself factored heavily into the Avs’ inability to retain the puck while he was on the ice.

These trends are troubling, given that Duchene is supposed to be a leader on this young Avalanche squad, and should be ideally be leading by example given his pedigree. While it’s of course true that the Avalanche were routinely out-shot as a whole, players such as O’Reilly, Landeskog and MacKinnon had a consistently positive impact on possession and shot generation, which is what’s expected of Duchene as well. One can only hope that 2014-2015 was a blip on Duchene’s otherwise solid possession resume.

Interestingly, although the Avalanche struggled to out-shoot their opponents while Duchene was on the ice in 2014-2015, they didn’t have a ton of trouble scoring. My first inclination was that perhaps Duchene’s shot generation was consistent with previous seasons, while his shot suppression numbers took a dive. However, my personal viewings of Duchene had me wondering if the scoring chances he generates are of an above-average quality, and the numbers certainly support this theory to some extent.

Duchene ranked a paltry 167th amongst forwards who played at least 500 5v5 minutes in On Ice Scoring Chances For per 60 min (SCF60), but his 5v5 Relative High-Danger Scoring Chances For Percentage of Total (HSCF%Rel) ranked 107th at 2.70%. This at least provides some evidence that Duchene’s chances tend to be of a reasonable quality, on average. Regardless, it seems more likely that running mate Jarome Iginla’s PSh% of 15.34%, very nearly a career high, might have had more to with it than anything else. Either way, the effect of individual players on On Ice Scoring % is limited and is mostly explainable by luck, even over periods as small as several games.

Duchene certainly didn’t perform as well as he did in 2013-2014, any way you slice it. His 5v5 HSCF%Rel was down from the previous year’s career high, although it was in line with his historical performance. In 2013-2014, Duchene’s 5v5 SCF60 was 19th in the league, and his 5v5 HSCF%Rel was 13th at 9.31%. Duchene’s career 5v5 HSCF%Rel averages might suggest that 2014-2015 was regression to his personal mean, but I still wouldn’t be surprised to see improvement this coming season. Duchene is at the age where NHL forwards are in the midst of their peak, and it’s certainly possible that he’ll could return to to his 2013-2014 form.

Duchene had 55 points in 82 games last season, down from 70 in 71 in 2013-2014, and the Avs’ powerplay woes are without a doubt partially to blame. The Avalanche went from having the 5th best power play conversion rate in 2013-2014 (19.8%) to the second-worst in the league in 2014-2015 (15.0%). Duchene’s HSCF% on the man advantage dropped similarly, from 92.50% to 86.15%. On a slightly positive note, Duchene’s production clearly trends upwards near the season’s end, although several of those points are admittedly secondary assists.

Duchene produced primary assists at a diminished rate 5v5 in 2014-2015, but accrued secondary assists at a rate consistent with his historical numbers. His total per 60 production was actually fairly reasonable when considered in the context of previous seasons; a hair lower, sure, but certainly not abysmal for a player that was widely considered to have had a “down year”.

Impact on Teammates

Well, this is a bit of a mess. Duchene’s impact on his teammates’ possession varied wildly; many were helped, but many were also hindered. The Duchene and O’Reilly pairing performed at a level that was greater than the sum of their parts, as did Duchene and Talbot. This lends credence to my theory that Duchene benefits from a winger who’s willing to work the corners and engage in 50/50 puck battles, someone who’s more physical game than he does. Obviously O’Reilly isn’t physical in a traditional sense, but his ability to dispossess the opposition and protect the puck in the offensive zone is elite, and that aspect of his game will be sorely missed. Even Talbot, a player who’s on the back nine of his career and has a limited individual impact, enhances Duchene’s game as a result of playing a style that meshes well with Duchene.

Iginla might have been a physical force and the perfect complement to Duchene in his heyday, but his ability to positively impact a game is diminishing rapidly. Sure he scored 29 goals last year, but he and his still formidable shot featured prominently on the Avs’ power play over the latter half of the season. I would’ve been more surprised if Iginla hadn’t taken advantage of that situation. It’s becoming increasingly clear that he’s having trouble keeping up with the pace of the game, particularly the pace Duchene prefers to play at. Indeed, the duo struggles mightily with shot suppression, suggesting that they have a difficult time executing a break-out and exiting the defensive zone. Moving forward, I imagine that Iginla’s effectiveness will become increasingly limited, and I’d be relieved to see him on the third line where his lack of pace will be less of a detriment. A cursory glance at Iginla’s 2013-2014 WOWY suggests that he benefited greatly from a slower, more measured approach alongside Krejci and Lucic, and the Avs would be smart to replicate this environment if they’d like get the most out of their wily veteran.

Interestingly, while Duchene was marginally better alongside Landeskog, a player who possess many of the physical and stylistic traits that Duchene seems to benefit from, Landeskog was measurably better without Duchene. A quick stroll down WOWY memory lane indicates that the two haven’t spent much on-ice time together, so perhaps this phenomenon is a result of a lack of familiarity rather than incompatible play. Regardless, the Landeskog-MacKinnon pairing has been extremely effective over the previous two seasons, so there isn’t really a good reason for Roy to experiment with Landeskog on Duchene’s left. Both MacKinnon and Barrie appear to be more productive when separated from Duchene, which isn’t too surprising. All three are dynamic skaters and enthusiastic puck carriers, and saturating the ice with players of their ilk creates a situation where you’ve got “too many cooks in the kitchen”, so to speak.

I’m going to continue to build on the “Iginla incompatibility” theme here. Duchene was atrocious alongside Iginla and Tanguay, another player who lacks pace and is similar to Duchene stylistically to boot. Worryingly, it’s possible that Duchene will start the season alongside Tanguay and Iginla, given that Roy has confirmed that Soderberg will be centering Landeskog and MacKinnon. Duchene’s 2013-2014 Spider suggests that he’d be more effective if deployed alongside LITERALLY anybody else. Many Avs fans bemoaned Roy’s decision to pair Mitchell with Duchene, but a quick glance at this chart suggests that Roy realized what these numbers suggest; stylistic compatibility is always more important than a player’s supposed position on the team’s “depth chart”. As expected, the 9-90 pairing was highly effective relative to the rest of the team, and Duchene was no slouch alongside Jan Hejda and Erik Johnson, who were the Avalanche’s most defensively stable defenders.

Moving forward, I’d be thrilled if Mikhail Grigorenko was able to re-find himself on Duchene’s left wing. Grigorenko is only three years removed from being selected 12th overall, is undoubtedly a top-6 talent, and there doesn’t seem to be a spot for him at centre long-term; a move to the wing seems logical. If Grigorenko is able to recapture the promise he exhibited when playing for the Quebec Remparts under Roy, then the Avs might have a potentially potent combination on their hands. If not, then the search for a suitable left-winger will hopefully be resolved at the 2016 Draft. As discussed earlier, Mikko Rantanen figures to be Iginla’s successor on the right wing, potentially as soon as next season. If not Rantanen, perhaps Connor Bleackley and his potent shot could find a permanent home on Duchene’s right, given the Avs’ current logjam at centre.

Career Trends

From 2009-2010 to 2014-2015, Duchene’s 5v5 production per 60 has ranked 167th, 37th, 213th, 24th, 10th and 32nd respectively amongst skaters with at least 500 minutes of ice time. His anomalous, injury-riddled third season aside, Duchene has consistently produced at rates that compare favourably to those of the league’s established elite. While his ability to suppress shots certainly leaves something to be desired, it’s clear that Duchene is a premier offensive talent.

Corsi Plus/Minus is my possession metric of choice as it’s much more statistically rigorous than anything else that’s publicly available at this point in time. The complete methodology can be found on @DTMAboutHeart‘s website, but I’ll do my best to summarize.

Using the play-by-play data provided by NHL.com, ‘DTM’ examined every even-strength shift that took place between 2007-2015. From this data, he set up a multivariate regression where the dependent variable was the rate at which a Corsi event took place, and the independent variables were the other players on the ice during that shift, with each shift weighted by how long it was. This model did not account for a player’s zone starts, and it also did not account for the strength of a player’s opponents as there has been a significant amount of research suggesting that both of those components might not be relevant in helping determine a player’s value.

Duchene’s disastrous 2014-2015 CPM seems anomalous for a player of his ilk, particularly when examined in the context of his “body of work”. Duchene has typically been an impactful player possession-wise; as discussed earlier, it seems that his lack of “chemistry” with players such as Tanguay and Iginla hurt him immensely. Duchene surrendered shots at 5v5 at a higher rate than ever before, and his 5v5 SF60 was the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. Moving forward, it’s imperative that the Avalanche pair Duchene with players who complement him properly; the sums of these situations (a la Duchene and O’Reilly) are undoubtedly greater than their individuals parts. While history suggests that Duchene might never be a defensive force, his defensive shortcomings could certainly be mitigated to some extent.

GAR is a metric developed by the War On Ice crew; in short, it details a player’s contribution to their team relative to that of a replacement level player available in free agency or on waivers. The fluctuations in Duchene’s GAR correlate with the fluctuations in his CPM, providing further confirmation that Duchene is most effective when generating shot attempts (as are most players).

Interestingly, Duchene’s most impressive season from an individual production standpoint is also one in which his shooting percentage was well below the forward league average of 10.82%. This chart doesn’t show us much that we haven’t already discussed; it’s merely an effective way to visualize and compare the constituents of Duchene’s production over the course of his career.

So, by now we’ve realized that Duchene was certainly less impactful last season than he has been, relative to both the rest of the team and himself historically.

But how did he fare in comparison to his competition? Here’s how Duchene measured up against to other prominent centres in the Central Division, who play similar roles on their own teams.

Conclusions

Moving forward, I expect that Duchene will be most successful as the Avalanche’s 1B centre. While other teams’ shutdown units are tasked with containing Nathan MacKinnon, Duchene will be free to exploit more favourable match-ups and avoid situations where his defensive shortcomings are exacerbated. Duchene also needs suitable linemates to play with consistently, long-term (broken record much?); thankfully there are some potential solutions to this problem working their way through the pipeline.

In my mind, the contract extension that takes Duchene through 2018-2019 also denotes the Avs’ cup window with their current group; beyond that, it might be rather difficult to retain all the members of our talented forward core. Regardless, for the Avalanche to going to be making an impact in the post-season, then Duchene needs to be front and centre.

Keep an eye out for similar pieces on Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie and Semyon Varlamov; I’m planning to have them all completed and published prior to the start of the regular season. Again, follow me on Twitter for updates and hockey musings.