Be worried. If you have given even a moment's thought to climate warming and its potential impact on our planet, be very worried. China, a nation of 1.3 billion people, has abandoned the bicycle as a principal mode of transportation and is now moving at a frightening pace to a car-based economy.

Perhaps it's the years of Western chest-beating about the grandeur of capitalism and consumerism. Or perhaps it's the simple human desire to have and consume more, to be more comfortable. Whatever it is, the Chinese are going the American way.

Recently I was in Korla, a fast-growing city in Xinjiang province in western China where I was at the tail end of my mission, to scout the Chinese portion of the famed Silk Route for a bicycle tour that my company is planning for the summer of 2007. The route will take about 45 cyclists from Istanbul to Beijing in 108 days, covering 10,000 km. Part of our mandate is to promote bicycles as sustainable transportation in a world that seems to be hurtling toward major ecological disaster.

Korla is one of 661 cities in China. What distinguishes it from all others is that it is the home base for several oil companies, including the U.S. conglomerate Exxon. The companies are tapping into the oil reserves of the vast Taklaman desert.

Korla is an impressive city. Striking new highrises line wide boulevards filled with Western style boutiques. The city is clean and, unlike most of the other cities I have seen on this trip, one can still breathe here without tasting the pollution. Here the sun still reaches the street.

Of course, Korla is still relatively small (population: 350,000) and new, and is the beneficiary of cleansing desert winds. Other Chinese cities were once like this, too. Now, the smog is so thick in most of them that the sun is only a rumour.

But while I can breathe here comfortably, I have reached the dispiriting conclusion that promoting sustainable transportation in China, as in the West, is a quixotic activity.

A friend who works for the World Health Organization recently pointed out that, when Chinese officials are drawn into discussions about bicycles as a means of transportation, they respond by asking how many people use bicycles in Los Angeles, New York or Toronto. Automobiles are rapidly replacing the bikes that are disappearing from the streets of Chinese cities at a phenomenal rates..

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, car sales in China in the first half of 2006 climbed almost 50 per cent, year-on-year, to 1.8 million.

The gains come on the heels of 21.4 per cent growth in car sales for 2005, with sales of luxury cars doing particularly well. Before the 1980s China did not allow private citizens to purchase vehicles for private use and there were few automobiles on the roads. By 2005, there were 20 million cars in use. By 2020, it is estimated, there will be 140 million.

It is not only new roads that these automobiles require.

With China's new wealth come bigger houses, each requiring more energy, not only to build, but to heat in the winter and cool in the summer, producing additional climate warming gases. Last Nov. 22,the China Daily reported that in the first half of 2006, emissions of sulphur dioxide increased by 4.2 per cent, chemical oxygen demand, a major index of water pollution, grew by 3.7 per cent, compared to the same period in 2005.

So although a 10,000-km bicycle trip may be a worthwhile activity for promoting health, fitness or adventure, it is hardly going to make a dent in changing people's minds about using bicycles instead of cars.

Perhaps the only hope would be for Western trendsetters – young actors, business leaders, politicians – to adopt a non-car lifestyle, since Western trends seem to influence the behaviour of much of the world.

Of course, that is not going to happen. Even if by some miracle it does, there is no guarantee that a world that has watched the West stuff its collective face with energy-consuming habits will join in its new-found environmental sensitivity.

So be worried. It's really the only option. And if 1.3 billion car users do not scare you, remember that Indians, who number a mere 1.2 billion, are close behind. Our Western ethos and lifestyle has triumphed, all right.

Oh, here is one more piece of good news: At the recent annual Detroit auto salon, China's Changfeng auto group announced that within two years it will be selling sports utility vehicles and pick-up trucks at least 20 per cent below any competitor. Isn't that wonderful?

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