(Jen Lute Costella is our new analytics writer, breaking down the fanciest of stats for you each week. She's a mom. She's writing for Puck Daddy. Hence, she calls this slice of stats heaven Puck Momalytics.)

Not all puck possession teams are created equally. Some teams control more of the play during a game but still give up a lot more shots than other teams. Likewise, some teams that may be very good at suppressing their opponent’s shots, but do not have an aggressive offense in terms of shot generation.

This is where Event Rates and rate based statistics are very helpful.

To illustrate this, think of a time you have heard an analyst or a broadcaster say “you don’t want to get into a track meet with this team” while you are watching a game. This is a favorite phrase of many broadcasters when discussing various teams throughout the league known to have a high-powered offense. A “track meet” type of game is technically one with lots of end to end action. Team X has an odd man rush, Team Y retrieves the puck off the rebound and speeds back to the other end of the ice and back and forth they go.

The odd thing about this? The commentators often apply this terminology to teams that are considered to be very good puck possession teams. Coaches, during their bench interviews or after the game, always say they do not want their team engaging in a track meet type of game. There is a very good reason for that. The best teams in the league do not play a track meet style of game. It seems that the people using “track meet” to describe teams are really just confusing a team that uses speed in transition with teams that allow lots of end to end action.

On the opposite side of this are teams that, when they are coming up on the schedule to play against your team, elicit an audible groan because you just know the game is going to be really boring. Both teams will be stuck in the neutral zone or trying to skate the puck out of their defensive zone on a breakout only to be stopped and go back and try again. There are very few breakaways or odd man rushes and overall, just not a lot action.

These examples are fairly easily translated by Event Rate statistics. These metrics also show us that the best teams in the league have far less “action” in their games than we may think. Metrics such as CF (Corsi For) and CA (Corsi Against) can be converted into rate stats to show the frequency of shot attempts for and against a team as the season goes on. The same can be done with Fenwick measures and Shots on Goal.

Below is a graph of the Corsi Event Rates for each team with last season’s numbers during 5 on 5 play with the score close. Teams on the left had a lower event rate. Teams on the right had a higher event rate. The vertical axis is the percentage of the play controlled by the team or CF%. Teams higher than 50% controlled more of the play than their opponents at 5 on 5 Score Close.

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Teams that are successful usually don’t allow very many shots against and control the play more than their opponents. Rate stats help us visualize this. Last season, some of the best teams in the league, the Los Angeles Kings, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Boston Bruins and the St. Louis Blues were in the middle of the event rate spectrum and controlled a high percentage of the play. The San Jose Sharks and New York Rangers were on the higher end of the event rate, but also had good puck possession. Good possession teams that struggle with shot suppression, i.e. that give up a lot of shots, tend to face significant hurdles in the playoffs and that is consistent with what happened last season.

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