The European Union is watching Estonia's election carefully amid the rise in anti-EU populism

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The success of populist parties is being fearfully monitored by Brussels ahead of May’s European Parliament elections when the bloc is worried eurosceptics could upset the EU’s order. Estonians began voting this morning with incumbent centre-left Prime Minister Juri Ratas the frontrunner but his hopes of forming a majority government are expected to be frustrated by the anti-EU Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) which is predicted to more than double its vote. The party is pushing a nationalist agenda and has seen a surge in support after promising to shake up the established politics with a fiercely anti-immigrant message.

Support for EKRE has soared since the migrant crisis in counties furthest from the capital where many of Estonia’s 1.3 million people feel exasperated with the traditional parties. EKRE is predicted to increase its total number of seats in the Estonian Parliament from eight to 20 after a campaign calling for ‘Estxit’ which was backed by about 10,000 people who took to the streets of Tallinn last week in torch-lit march. Entrepreneur Mati Vaartnou, 52, who lives one the distant island of Saaremaa, said: “An increasing number of people understand that the current parties will not change anything.” Meanwhile Estonian singer and composer Tajo Kadajas, 65, said he voted for anti-EU EKRE because he fears his country is losing its identity.

Mr Kadajas told the Daily Telegraph: “The EU has forced quotas on us, to attract thousands of migrants.” He added: “I voted EKRE because they stand for the preservation of our nation and our culture.” EKRE is building on far-right support which has upset politics across Europe, particularly in Britain, France, Austria and in Italy which is ruled by a populist coalition government. The party’s eurosceptic rhetoric, which has resonated strongly with Estonians, has proved so divisive that many other parties in Tallinn have pledged to exclude it from coalition discussions.

Estonians are voting in a general election with eurosceptic EKRE party predicted to make gains

EKRE’s chairman, Martin Helme, said he expects it to be difficult for the party to enter into government. Mr Helme said: “I am sure that there will be an effort to find any other combination to form a government, just as long as we are not in it.” EKRE’s expected success is likely to drive a wedge not just between Estonia and the EU but through the heart of the country’s politics too. Prime Minister Ratas’ Centre party is traditionally pro-Russian but it could be forced into a coalition with the rival pro-Western Reform party.

Populist leader Martin Helme's EKRE has called for a referendum on Estonia's membership of the EU

A poll for Estonian public broadcaster ERR showed Centre, which has a co-operation pact with Vladimir Putin and whose core supporters are Estonia’s Russian speakers, will come out on top with 28 percent of the votes. Reform polled at 24 percent will EKRE came in third at 17 percent. Mr Ratas’ current coalition partners, the Social Democrats and conservative Fatherland stood at just 10 percent each. The Prime Minister’s pro-Russian stance has angered many patriotic Estonians who were enraged at Centre’s plan to close the only Estonian-language high school in the mostly Russian-speaking town of Kohtla-Jarve which lies near the border with Russia.

Estonia general election: Reform leader Kaja Kallas casts her vote