The last phase of polling has begun in both Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir on Saturday. And the exit polls at 4 pm will reveal a picture of what the future holds for the parties in fray.

8.05 pm: PDP misses majority with 36-41 seats, BJP's mission 44+ to fail, says AXIS-APM

And the numbers are out for Jammu and Kashmir, and the BJP won't win the elections if the AXIS-APM exit poll numbers have gotten it right.

The PDP gets the highest numbers but misses majority with 36-41 seats in Jammu and Kashmir, followed by the BJP which is predicted to win 16-22 seats, NC may win between 9-13 seats, the Congress is reduced to 9-13 seats, JKNPP - 2-4 and others - 4-6

7.26 pm: Mood for change in J&K, but not in favour of BJP, reveals CSDS survey

It seems there is mood for change in the Jammu and Kashmir. At least that is what the CSDS opinion poll projects.

When asked who would be the preferred chief minister of the state, the highest number of votes went to Mufti Mohammed Sayeed of the PDP.

Mufti was voted the most preferred CM by 23% in Kashmir and 11 % in Jammu, this was followed by Omar Abdullah where 14% in Jammu and 13% in Kashmir thought he should be CM. BJP's Dr Jitender Singh got only 6% votes in Jammu and 1% in Kashmir.

The numbers point to two things:

One, voters in Jammu and the valley are completely divided and two, BJP's lotus may fail to bloom the state that the party has been eyeing.

7.07 pm: India Today-CICERO exit poll gives clear majority to Modi's BJP in Jharkhand

After the fifth phase of polling is over, the India Today-CICERO exit poll projections are giving a clear majority to the BJP in Jharkhand and so is the AXIS-APM exit polls.

According to the exit polls, the BJP is likely to get 43 -51 seats, JMM may get between 14-18 seats, the Congress is reduced to 7-11 seats and others 7-11 seats.

If the numbers are anything to go by, this would be the first majority BJP government in Jharkhand. Also the numbers clearly point to the fact that the Modi wave still continues.

Meanwhile the exit polls that were conducted with AXIS-APM give 37-43 seats to the BJP, JVM 12-16 seats,

JMM 10-14 seats, Congress - 4-6 seats, RJD - 3-5 seats, Others - 4-8 seats.

Survey finds BJP vote share to rise from 25% in 2009 to 43%. A huge gain of 18% #Jharkhand #BattleForTheStates pic.twitter.com/ta49dek9NK — CNN-IBN News (@ibnlive) December 20, 2014

5.28 pm: Kashmir valley has no trust on Modi, reveals CSDS opinion poll

According to an opinion poll conducted by CSDS in Jammu 52% said they have high trust in the Centre, while only 16% said they had high trust on the Central government in Kashmir. As for Narendra Modi, in Jammu 69% had high trust in him, but in Kashmir only 17% in the valley said they had high trust for him.

Is it a troubling signal that may stop the BJP from winning majority in J&K? Mani Shankar Aiyer of Congress says, "In the valley the entire democratic process in India has lost credibility."

Meanwhile Sheshadri Chari of BJP says, "As far as low trust for political parties is concerned, Congress, NC and PDP should consider it. It is the failure on the part of all political parties."

5.12 pm: BJP will for govt in Jharkhand, J&K, says Sambit Patra

Even as the post poll survey predicted a big win for the BJP in Jharkhand, BJP's Sambit Patra was confident that BJP would for a government in both Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand.

"Both in Jammu and Kashmir and in Jharkhand, something unexpected will happen for the first time. For the first time Jharkhand will get a taste of stability. It will be the first time a BJP government will be formed in Jammu and Kashmir," Sambit Patra told Headlines Today.

Speaking of the Hindutva rhetoric that has been coming from the RSS and other fringe Hindutva group, Patra says, "RSS is a cultural organisation. BJP's agenda is only development and that is why we have been moving forward."

4.35 pm: BJP set to win Jharkhand with 41-49 seats according to India Today-CICERO

According the India Today Group-CICERO post poll survey the BJP is set to get between 41-49 seats this assembly election in Jharkhand. It would be almost doubling its seats in the state. The Congress loses out and may get between 7-11 seats. JMM may get 15-19 seats and others 8-12 seats.

"Not a very big surprise if Lok Sabha is to be taken as a trend," senior academic Manisha Priyam tells Headlines Today

Given the Congress is set to face another debacle, National Editor Headlines Today Javed Ansari says, "The Congress still believes that it is a party of the 80's. They need to rebuild, and till they re-build they need to tie up."

Speaking of BJP's success, Priyam says, "Factionalism in Jharkhand was indeed the bane of the party. Clearly Modi and Amit Shah have put the factionalism behind them and it has been very important."

ITG-CICERO Poll Jharkhand Vote percentage projection BJP: 36% (+5.9%) Congress: 16% (-5.6%) JMM: 20% (+8.3%) Others: 28 (-8.7%) — HeadlinesToday (@HeadlinesToday) December 20, 2014

4.15 pm: Will Modi magic continue in J&K, Jharkhand?

The last phase of polling is currently underway in both - Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir today, and the exit polls this evening could well reveal a picture of what the future holds for the parties in fray.

While 20 assembly constituencies go to polls in J&K, Jharkhand saw polling in 16 constituencies with Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren contesting in two seats in the fifth and final round of elections for the 81-seat state assembly.

The counting for all phases in both the states will be held on 23 December.

These polls are important especially for the BJP, as they have claimed that the Modi wave, that swept the country during the Lok Sabha elections in May, still hold momentum.

This assembly election season saw extensive campaigning by both the BJP and the Congress, as well as other regional parties such as the JMM and National Conference.

If PM Modi's speeches were anything to go by, the issue of development was his tool to woo voters of both the states. Meanwhile, the Congress leadership was mostly seen taking digs at the BJP government at the Centre, still choosing to focus on empowerment.

Even in the last phase of campaigning, PM Modi took digs at the National Conference and the PDP saying they will be wiped out in the Valley. "These parties are resorting to statements that BJP will not get even a seat from Kashmir. Why this use of language of discrimination? Why use of this language of separating Kashmir from Jammu. Is their behaviour right?" Modi had asked.

Countering his attacks incumbent Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah had said Modi was only making false promises to garner votes. Appealing the people to vote in great numbers in favour of NC, he said, "people of the Valley have refused to buy the false promises of BJP and rejected its double speak. Feeling the pulse of poll trends in Kashmir, BJP leader Arun Jaitley has conceded that his party is not going to form the government in the state," Abdullah had said.

However, despite a record voter turnout in Jammu and Kashmir the BJP won't have it easy all across the state. As this Firstpost article points out, BJP’s wooing of Kashmir may cost the party in Jammu.

Firstpost contributor Sameer Yasir says that, "the party’s focus on Kashmir has angered many people in Jammu. Ranjeet Singh Maan, a businessman, told Yasir, “the BJP has ended up insulting the people of Jammu. Leave aside Article 370, the BJP leaders have even forgotten to mention the people who have suffered at the hands of Pakistan’s firing in the border area of Jammu.” A senior BJP leader admitted there was a feeling that Jammu and Ladakh were “in their pockets” and this could be taken for granted. “So we focused on Kashmir. But the ground, it seems, is slipping away,” he said."

Meanwhile in Jharkhand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had addressed two meetings in Dumka from where Hemant Soren was contesting and had asked the electorate to throw out the "looters" of the state.

Modi had also attacked JMM supremo Shibu Soren and his chief minister son, accusing the duo of doing nothing for the state except filling up their "coffers".

Hitting back at Modi, Hemant Soren had alleged the BJP was a party of "loot and had "eyes" on the mineral resources of the state.

AICC vice-president Rahul Gandhi, who addressed poll rallies in Sikaripara and Godda constituencies, alleged the BJP would snatch tribal lands if voted to power in Jharkhand.

Gandhi also said the Congress believed in empowering the people and take them along in the development of the country while Modi "never talks empowerment of women and farmers."

JMM supremo Shibu Soren, RJD chief Lalu Prasad, Union Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, MP and film star Hema Malini were others who campaigned for their respective candidates in the final leg of the five-phase elections that started on 25 November.

With agency inputs