By Noah Lieberman

Ballotcraft is a fantasy politics game (think fantasy football, but for politics). Play against your friends and win by best predicting what’s going to happen in upcoming elections. Sign up and play here: www.ballotcraft.com.

This is part two of our four-part series analyzing Ballotcraft’s market data during the first Republican Presidential Debate. We’re looking at how a savvy investor could use this information to their advantage in the future.

In today’s post, we will turn to the eventual winner of the debate as decided by the Ballotcraft focus group, Florida Senator Marco Rubio. If Senator Rubio had failed to catch your eye during the debate, you would not be alone. The Senator never led the market, and only held second place for a total of five minutes over the course of the debate. After a rough start, Rubio spent the majority of the night in the mid-teens, solidly wedged in with Governor Bush and Senator Paul. Though he had a couple memorable moments, his price barely fluctuated at all, only rising or dropping as he spoke and readjusting after he was done. Of the five candidates who spent time over double-digits, Rubio had by far the smallest range in values, his prices only ranging by 7.6 points, from 10.8 to 18.4, after opening remarks (By comparison, Trump had a post-opening range of 10.4 points, Bush had one of 12.7, Paul 15.9, and Walker 16.2).

Bush, Paul, and Rubio Prices During Debate

If Rubio had one main strength during the debate, it was his ability to finish the night strongly. Though he trailed his three main competitors by 7.2, 8.5, and 8.9 points with just 15 minutes left in the debate, two strong closing statements touching on the crowd-pleasing subjects of God, veterans, and the American dream brought those margins down to 0.2, 7.4, and 4.9 points respectively. Still, the fact that he won this debate without ever leading in the market may be cause for concern as you try to adjust your strategy for the future.

How This Should Impact Your Strategy: First off, don’t discount Rubio. Even if his message doesn’t resonate with you personally, it certainly has a greater hold over Republican voters than the market ever gave him credit for. Secondly, pay attention to who’s getting applause at the end of night, since they’re more likely to have a lasting impression with viewers.

Noah Lieberman is the founder of election forecasting website PollingLab. Click here to see more of his analysis of the 2016 election.