X marks the spot: Where Nick Xenophon's presence will be felt in the SA election

Updated

Nick Xenophon is a political enigma in South Australia.

This March, the former senator is out to redefine the state's political landscape.

He's handpicked 36 candidates to run under the banner of his new SA Best party which is seeking the balance of power in the South Australian parliament.

Statewide opinion polls show the fledgling party could command between a quarter and a third of first preference votes at the March 17 poll.

But statewide polls don't tell the full picture. So where is Nick Xenophon's SA Best most likely to succeed?

This map compiled by ABC News shows support for SA Best's federal cousin — the Nick Xenophon Team — at the 2016 Federal election.

Booth by booth, you can see the strength of support for the Xenophon brand across the state.

The map also shows the new state electoral boundaries on which this election will be fought.

If the federal results were replicated in full at the state election, SA Best would be in a strong position to seize more than 10 seats, almost certainly seize the balance of power, and deliver Nick Xenophon the role of kingmaker in parliament.

While federal results are a useful indicator of where voters have already countenanced a vote for Team X, there are significant differences between federal and state polls.

Different issues, different candidates and perhaps most significantly, a different incumbent government.

So, let's take a closer look at areas which will be key to SA Best's success — or otherwise.

Ground zero for the SA Best party is the seat chosen by its leader Nick Xenophon.

The eastern suburbs seat of Hartley is held by first-term Liberal MP Vincent Tarzia.

It encompasses the suburbs of Campbelltown, Paradise, Newton, Hectorville, Tranmere and Magill.

The seat falls almost entirely within the federal electorate of Sturt.

Nick Xenophon has long lived in the area. It's also home to his "no win, no fee" law firm, where he honed his advocacy skills before entering politics 21 years ago.

The Nick Xenophon Team polled reasonably strongly here in 2016, and with its founder and spiritual leader running here, SA Best would expect to do better.

Nick Xenophon may have to if he wants to lead his party in the SA Parliament.

The Liberal and Labor Parties are running split tickets in Hartley, and the Greens and Conservatives are doing SA Best no favours.

"I agree with his values against the pokies. It's change that needs to be done, it's affecting way too many [people]. I think other jobs can be created, so the pub argument is non-existent to me, it doesn't resonate with me." Antonio Puntillo, sales executive, Hartley

Antonio Puntillo voted Liberal in the last federal election, but said he planned to vote for Nick Xenophon in the state election.

He doesn't agree with the criticism that Xenophon is all personality, no policy.

"He's got a great personality, he's a great character. If anyone bothered to look at what he' s done — he's actually helped out a friend of mine and I know he's done a lot of good for no cost for a lot of people."

As for his antics?

"I think they're different and you take notice."

In 2016, the Adelaide Hills turned a dark shade of orange, as Rebekha Sharkie earned the rare honour of becoming the first running mate of Nick Xenophon to secure a lower house seat.

She did so in spectacular fashion, slaying former federal Liberal minister Jamie Briggs, who also happened to be her former boss.

In this state election, SA Best's hopes throughout the hills have been buoyed by a wave of retirements of sitting Liberal members.

In Kavel and Heysen, the Liberals are seeking to usher in new blood, but lose the name recognition of sitting members Mark Goldsworthy in Kavel, former leader Isobel Redmond in Heysen and Michael Pengilly in Finniss.

The Labor-held seat of Mawson has been radically redrawn and is now notionally Liberal.

The question for SA Best will be — to what extent was the 2016 result a backlash against Jamie Briggs, who was forced to quit the ministry after an incident in a Hong Kong bar?

Rebekha Sharkie has a high profile, and is popular in her electorate. But will her aura help lesser known candidates in state seats?

"I enjoy that little bit of humour and being out there and a bit of fun. He doesn't always wear a tie which sort of suits me so I think he's more of a man for the common man, if I can use that term." Nick Rowe, retired, Heysen

Nick Rowe, a retiree (formerly a state operations manager for a large international company), voted for Nick Xenophon in the last federal election but is an undecided voter this election.

Some of Xenophon's policies are what he's looking for.

"Others, I'm not sure he's on the mark — but then again I'm not sure the Liberals or Labor are on the mark either — so that's why I'm a little bit undecided."

He likes Xenophon's policy on the pokies, but said Xenophon was not giving "quite enough" detail on his other policies.

"I enjoy the little bit of rebel in him, I enjoy that — I think we are a little bit too stuffy at times.

"So yeah, he's got a lot going for him. But I'm still undecided."

Heading east from the hills the landscape flattens into the floodplains of the Murray River.

Here, two "safe" Liberal seats are home to the agricultural communities which depend on the river system.

Chaffey is centred on the Riverland towns of Renmark, Berri, Loxton and Waikerie.

Further south, the town of Murray Bridge is the major population centre in the seat of Hammond.

Both seats fall within the federal seat of Barker, where the Nick Xenophon Team secured a third of the vote at the 2016 election.

In his time in the Senate, Nick Xenophon campaigned hard on River Murray issues. He was a frequent visitor to the Riverland during the drought.

Success in either of these seats would go a long way to delivering SA Best a powerful position in the next parliament.

"I've heard that maybe he's not wanting to have the leadership responsibilities and wants to get what he wants out of it, not what the state needs." Jackie Knight, Riverland grower, Chaffey

Jackie Knight is a Renmark grower who said in the past she would have always voted for Nick Xenophon, but this year she probably won't.

She said in the past she thought he was the "underdog standing up for the masses".

"He did have a big huge following, but I don't know if he still has that following and is it because his ideas have changed and he's more for different things.

"If he wants that [popularity] to continue, he needs to do the things the people backing him need."

She said she wants a party that considers regional areas, with issues surrounding the Murray, drug addiction and business growth seriously impacting people lives.

"South Australia doesn't finish at Gepps Cross."

While the Liberals fear SA Best taking hold in country seats, Labor's greatest fear is Nick Xenophon causing Labor wipeout in Whyalla.

The seat is centred on the steel town, which until recently was at risk of closing its steelworks altogether.

About a third of voters here were prepared to vote for a Xenophon candidate at the federal election, when uncertainty over jobs and Whyalla's future was at its peak.

Now the uncertainty is whether the steelworks purchase and investments promised by British industrialist Sanjeev Gupta are enough to make the electorate breathe a sigh of relief, and vote for the incumbent Labor MP Eddie Hughes.

Nick Xenophon has chosen as his candidate a former acting mayor of Whyalla, Tom Antonio — a bitter rival of Hughes and his predecessor Lyn Breuer, who is the current mayor.

Should Labor lose Giles, other rust-belt seats in Adelaide's northern suburbs could be at risk to SA Best as well. And that could spell disaster for Jay Weatherill's government.

"I think Nick Xenophon has the potential to shake up state politics and could do some great work bringing attention to the region and its challenges. However I wouldn't consider voting for his candidate, Tom, in the seat of Giles." Daine Hoffman, employment consultant, Giles

Daine Hoffman said he was turned off the SA Best candidate for Giles following an alleged incident involving the candidate's wife and Whyalla Mayor Lyn Breuer.

Tom Antonio's wife, Angela, has alleged she was assaulted by Ms Breuer during a Remembrance Day commemoration last November.

"I know politics can be a dirty game but his wife's recent assault charge against the former seat-holder Lyn Breuer was conveniently timed.

"Tom is a very polarising candidate. I've heard people around town declare their love and support for him and others who've said they'll put him as the last preference on their ballot.

"Whichever way it goes I just hope the successful candidate has our region's best interests at heart."

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Topics: elections, government-and-politics, states-and-territories, state-parliament, parliament, adelaide-5000, sa, australia

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