For now, most Republicans think Graham can avoid a serious primary challenge. Graham goes all-in on immigration

A red-state Republican senator up for reelection and seen as vulnerable to a primary challenge from the right embraces a plan to allow illegal immigrants to gain U.S. citizenship — a lightning rod for GOP primary voters if there ever was one.

Seems unthinkable on its face. Yet that’s precisely what Lindsey Graham did last week. And the remarkable thing is, there’s no sign of a backlash in his home state, South Carolina — at least not yet.


( PHOTOS: Pols react to immigration deal)

It’s a reflection of both Graham’s political strength and his party’s rapid evolution on immigration since its November licking among Latinos.

Long viewed with suspicion among the right wing — in no small part because of his 2007 endorsement of the Kennedy-McCain immigration reform bill — Graham apparently feels safe enough heading into 2014 to stick his neck out again on a politically perilous debate he obviously cares about deeply.

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The two-term senator is also convinced the dynamic has changed since 2007. Immediately after the November election, Graham called Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and told him he wanted to try to cut a sweeping bipartisan deal on the issue, which few Republicans have wanted to touch in recent years.

Back then, Graham was booed at town halls for supporting reform pushed by President George W. Bush. County parties censured him. Rush Limbaugh described his proposal as “Grahamnesty.”

“There are going to be people who are upset, I understand that,” Graham told POLITICO last week. “I do believe that people in the Republican Party are beginning to understand the politics of immigration. But people do want the borders secured; they want to get this issue behind us; and I think I’m in a good spot to go back home and tell people that now is the time to get this done.”

( PHOTOS: At a glance: The Senate immigration deal)

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a member, along with Graham, of the Gang of Eight, provides the South Carolina senator some cover on his right flank. And the 2012 electoral thumping that the GOP took, driven partly by Mitt Romney’s 27 percent showing with Hispanics, has prompted many Republicans to rethink the party’s opposition to a comprehensive overhaul.

One of them is Randy Page, chairman of the GOP committee in South Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District. He voted last summer to include tough language in the GOP national platform as South Carolina’s representative on the committee that drafted its contents.

“A number of us, myself included, have looked at the message that the Republican Party has been sending and looking at the message that the Hispanic community sent us in November, and we’ve started to listen to what Sen. Rubio and Sen. Graham have been saying,” he said.

“Looking specifically at Hispanics, most of them support us on other issues — whether social issues or fiscal issues,” he added. “They’re saying, ‘We agree with you on life and school choice and so many other things,’ but yet we’re saying, ‘You’re not welcome. And we want you to go back and self-deport yourself’? That’s the wrong rhetoric, and it’s, frankly, the wrong solution.”

What’s happening in South Carolina mirrors what’s happened among conservative thought leaders nationally. Television host Sean Hannity, columnist Charles Krauthammer and others have announced changes in heart on immigration reform since the election.

For now, most Republicans think Graham can avoid a serious primary challenge, though no one is ruling it out. The establishment has largely rallied behind Graham, and whoever might run against him would need to be able to raise a lot of money and have built up a level of credibility. State Sen. Tom Davis, a supporter of Ron Paul, was seen as a leading possibility but made it known last week that he will not run.

If Graham wins the primary, he’s essentially guaranteed reelection. Democrats probably won’t be able to field a top-tier candidate against him.

Clemson University political science professor Dave Woodard, a GOP consultant who managed Graham’s 1994 and 1996 campaigns for the House, said that immigration remains “a touchy subject” in the state. He noted that Graham changed his tune in the summer of 2010 after Republican Rep. Bob Inglis lost the primary.

“He’s made up a lot of ground; he’s done a lot of fence-mending; and he’s just impenetrable right now,” said Woodard. “He still needs to be careful with this issue. … He probably has more wiggle room that he didn’t have 18 or 24 months ago.”

Graham has also earned political capital for his vocal criticism of the Obama administration’s handling of the Benghazi attacks.

South Carolina GOP Chairman Chad Connelly noted that Rubio spoke at the party’s annual Silver Elephant Dinner last May. He said there’s been relatively little buzz about immigration at the activist level lately.

“It has not been a big story, and I do think it’s because it’s packaged better,” he said. “They’re talking about it in a more direct tone, and it seems they do have a better solution.”

He said conservatives can get behind a compromise that would secure the border first and create an easier path to citizenship as long as it does not offend people who came to the country legally.

“That’s a tightrope to walk, obviously, but that’s what I’ve heard people talk about,” he said. “The last election showed us nationally it’s not that Hispanics are turned off by our belief system or our standards, but the way we package it and message it can be a whole lot more palatable if we present it in a better way.”

That means Graham can be getting early leeway from the right, but that ire will grow if he supports legislation that goes too much in the direction of amnesty without concessions from the White House on border security. The plan calls for border security measures to take effect before there’s a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, though many details have yet to be worked out.

Graham is cognizant of that.

“I feel good that we’re going to get more than our fair share of conservatives who understand now is the time, the 12 million [estimated illegal immigrants] are going to have to basically — some will stay, some will have to go — it will be an earned legalization process,” he said in an interview at the Capitol.

“I tell every conservative: If you don’t secure the border and control who gets jobs, we’ll have 12 million 20 years from now,” he added. “Ronald Reagan tried it before; there was no follow-up. I understand what happened in 1986 — we never did control the border and control who got a job. We’re not going to make that mistake this time.”

South Carolina Republican National Committeeman Glenn McCall laments the missed opportunity in 2007.

“The majority I’ve spoken with feel we need to do something, and we need to do it soon,” he said. “There are a number of folks I’ve talked to that really support the Rubio and that Gang of Eight plan that Sen. Graham has signed on to, and they think it’s a little more thought out than 2007.”

Not everyone agrees. Graham’s 2008 primary challenger, Buddy Witherspoon, does not approve of the immigration framework or Graham.

“It doesn’t surprise me in any way,” he said. “It’s not our problem they’re here. It’s our problem that we cannot secure the border to get them from coming here.”

Witherspoon, former Republican national committeeman himself, pulled 33 percent in a two-way race against Graham. His billboards during the race said Graham is “too liberal for South Carolina,” and he believes that still applies. But he is not sure anyone will be able to knock off the senior senator next year.

“Incumbency is tough to beat when they’ve got big dollars like that,” he said. “I can tell you that the conservatives and tea party and some of the independents are not any happier this time than they were last time. Can you raise enough interest to get the others out that you need to kick this over the 50 percent plus 1? I don’t know. You can certainly give it your best shot.”

Immigration would be one of the top lines of attack, he added.

Graham has aggressively courted local activists, attending tea party meetings and reaching out to many conservatives who have been antagonistic. In 2010, he suggested a constitutional amendment to deny birthright citizenship to children of those illegally in the U.S. He has also opposed the DREAM Act, which would give permanent residency to those who come to America as minors and attend college or serve in the military.

Freshman Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), a favorite among conservatives back home, is keeping his powder dry on Graham’s bipartisan effort, saying he’ll wait to see the legislative text before weighing in on the controversial pathway to citizenship.

“It’s a place to start,” Scott said. “I look forward to seeing what’s produced out of it.”

In an apparent sign of how sensitive the issue remainsin the state, Scott refused to weigh in specifically on Graham. And he would not say whether he would endorse Graham’s reelection bid.

“I think you gotta talk about Lindsey to Lindsey,” Scott said.