UNITED CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

Toronto, April 6th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1132 Alberta voters, amongst those decided and leaning more than half of Albertans (55%) say that they would support the United Conservative Party.

A third (32%) say they would support the NDP and about 1 in 10 (7%) would support the Alberta Party.

Few say they would support either the Green Party (2%), another party (2%), or the Liberals (1%).









United Conservative majority, NDP as opposition

If the election were held today, we project these results would see a United Conservative Party majority government with 67 seats. The NDP would serve as opposition with 18 seats, and the Liberals and Alberta Party would each secure behind at 1 seat.

Most Albertans watched or heard about debate

A majority of Albertans (83%) either watched or heard about the Provincial leader’s debate.

4 in 10 Albertans said they watched the Provincial leader’s debate (44%) , while a similar proportion said they heard about the debate (39%). A sixth (17%) did not watch or hear anything about the debate.





4 in 10 believe Jason Kenney won debate





Regardless of which leaders Albertans would vote for, 4 in 10 (41%) believe Jason Kenney won the debate. A quarter (23%) believe Rachel Notley won the debate, while a sixth (16%) said there was no winner.

(6%) believe David Khan or Stephen Mandel won the debate and 1 in 10 (9%) stated they ‘don’t know’.

Three-quarters do not believe the debate impacted their vote





Three-quarters (72%) said that the Alberta provincial leader’s debate did not have any effect on their vote. A quarter (28%) said that the debate did impact their vote.

Of those who said the debate had an impact on their vote, 4 in 10 (40%) are more likely to vote for UCP. A third (36%) are more likely to vote NDP and 1 in 10 (11%) are more likely to vote for the Alberta Party.





“The United Progressive Party holds a big lead over the NDP going into the final week, with declared support from more than half of Albertans.” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “A week may be an eternity in politics, but, at this point, it's going to take a major shift to jostle Jason Kenney out of the premier's chair."





Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.