Interestingly, this means that the reported unconditional probability of becoming president (the third column) is the product of the reported probability of winning a party nomination (one of the first two columns) and the implied conditional probability. It's clear from the numbers that this market doesn't expect a credible third-party candidate.Interestingly, this means that the reported unconditional probability of becoming president (the third column) is the product of the reported probability of winning a party nomination (one of the first two columns) and the implied conditional probability.

Clinton's implied probability of getting elected conditional on winning the Democratic nomination is 60.3%. That means that, "on average," the Republican nominee has a 39.7% chance of winning. The market's view of the relative strengths of the Republican candidates can then be seen by comparing their implied conditional probabilities to this 39.7% figure:

Now that Intrade is gone, here is one place to see who is ahead based on betting odds.Update: A friend emails me:

41.9% Rubio41.9%

42.0% Trump42.0%

55.4% Bush55.4%

38.8% Carson38.8%

Cruz 36.6%