FW: Roundup: Iran Deal Analysis

From:seizenstat@cov.com To: Jake.Sullivan@gmail.com CC: John.Podesta@gmail.com, huma@clintonfoundation.org Date: 2015-07-14 20:24 Subject: FW: Roundup: Iran Deal Analysis

Dear Jake, It appears that Hillary has already spoken. I do hope in a formal statement she will say that as President, NOT just that all options are on the table, which is a hackneyed phrase, but that “As President I will do whatever it takes to assure that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon.” There should also be the kind of statement I have suggested of working closely with our allies in the region, especially Israel, to counter Iranian terrorist activity, and to be certain they have the means to fully defend themselves against Iran. Former Congressman and HFRC Chairman Howard Berman, my partner at Covington, told me that as a result of the 4:00 pm White House telephonic briefing of the Washington Institute group that singed the letter of concern, he believes all five concerns have been taken care of, in one way or another. He said Dennis Ross (my JPPI co-chair) has put out a statement suggesting there is no better option. Howard says he will not join a group of Democrats (e.g. Evan Bayh, Mary Landrieu) opposing the deal. I am forwarding some comments he has accumulated. He told me in Israel there is wall-to-wall opposition, including Herzog and Livni. Best wishes, Stu Howard L. Berman Senior Advisor Covington & Burling LLP One CityCenter, 850 Tenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 T +1 202 662 5658 | HBerman@cov.com<mailto:HBerman@cov.com> www.cov.com<http://www.cov.com/> [cid:image001.png@01D0BE5D.D1F82180]<http://www.cov.com/> Dear Friends: Israel Policy Forum will soon provide conference calls, Insider Briefs, and in-person briefings with American and Israeli perspectives regarding the Iran nuclear deal announced this morning<http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/full-text-iran-deal-120080.html>. I know your inboxes are already inundated with reactions. In this email, I am providing a Roundup of excerpts of analysis / reactions that you can skim / review as you wish. While continuing to provide resources, IPF will remain focused on our core mission and the implications for regional security and diplomacy going forward. And, we will continue to call for close US-Israel cooperation<http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Discrete-US-Israel-cooperation-not-Oren-like-distractions-408540>, befitting strategic allies. Clearly, such dialogue is essential to create the kind of assurances that undoubtedly will be needed to advance regional security in the wake of today's announcement. Best - David David A. Halperin Executive Director Israel Policy Forum (IPF) 140 West 57th Street, Suite 6C New York, NY 10019 Direct: 212-315-1742 Cell: 516-355-1300 Nicholas Burns, to the NY Times<http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-us.html?_r=0>: “The reality is that it is a painful agreement to make, but also necessary and wise,” said R. Nicholas Burns, who drafted the first sanctions against Iran, passed in the United Nations Security Council in 2006 and 2007, when he was undersecretary of state for policy. “And we might think of it as just the end of the beginning of a long struggle to contain Iran. There will be other dramas ahead.” Jeffrey Goldberg, Atlantic Columnist<http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/iran-nuclear-weapons-deal-obama/398465/>: “The Iran drama is only beginning. Assuming that Obama can sell this deal to Congress—Chuck Schumer, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you—this will be a multi-year story of implementation. I wish I could believe what Obama seems to suspect, that this deal will set in motion a virtuous cycle in which moderates (relative moderates, of course) gain power in a liberalizing Iran. But I don’t think that this is happening soon. For now, I hope that Obama will study the reality of Iranian activity in the region, and begin to push back against Iran’s ambitions with more alacrity than he has done so far. White House Talking Points / Graphics and Resources Page<https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal> (includes video of President Obama’s address): After many months of principled diplomacy, the P5+1 -- the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, Russia and Germany -- along with the European Union, have achieved a long-term comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran that will verifiably prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and ensure that Iran's nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful going forward. This deal stands on the foundation of the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), achieved in November of 2013, and the framework for this Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), announced in Lausanne on April 2, 2015 that set the requirements for the deal with the P5+ 1 and Iran, alongside the European Union announced today. Now, with this deal in place, the U.S., our allies, and the international community can know that tough, new requirements will keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Here's how: AIPAC Statement<http://www.aipac.org/learn/resources/aipac-publications/publication?pubpath=PolicyPolitics/Press/AIPAC%20Statements/2015/07/AIPAC%20Statement%20on%20Announcement%20of%20Proposed%20Iran%20Nuclear%20Agreement>: “During these negotiations, we outlined five critical requirements for a good deal. We are deeply concerned based on initial reports that this proposed agreement may not meet these requirements, and thereby would fail to block Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon and would further entrench and empower the leading state sponsor of terror.” Ilan Goldenberg, via Times of Israel<http://www.timesofisrael.com/with-iran-deal-signed-and-sealed-whats-israel-to-do-now/>: As the fight over the Iran deal gets political, Democrats will be less inclined to oppose the president, explained Goldenberg, a former senior staffer on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee covering Middle East issues. “The more the question becomes — ‘Do you trust Obama or do you support Netanyahu and the Republicans?’ — the less likely the Democrats are to vote against the deal.” Rather than confrontation, the Israeli prime minister should seek to make amends with the administration and start a serious dialogue about what Washington and Jerusalem can do together to counter Iran’s aggressive actions in the region and to ensure Tehran does not violate the nuclear agreement, Goldenberg suggested. “The biggest strategic mistake Netanyahu can make is to walk away for the next 18 months and wait for next president,” he said. “I don’t think Israel can afford that. If he does that, he’s only going to further widen the partisanship and turn Israel into a political wedge issue.” Instead of hoping for Congress to shoot down the deal, Netanyahu should encourage it to pass legislation that would support the agreement’s vigorous implementation, Goldenberg continued. The Hill has several tools at its disposal: mechanisms to ensure sanctions snap back automatically if Iran violates the deal, more money for international inspectors, the creation of a permanent board with a congressional mandate to oversee the arms control agreement, and so on. Rep. Steve Israel via website<http://israel.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/rep-israel-statement-on-iran-nuclear-agreement>: “I was skeptical at the beginning of this process, and I remain skeptical of the Iranians. In the fall, there will be a vote on this deal, and my obligation is to review every word, sentence, and paragraph of the deal to ensure it satisfies my continued concerns. Until then, you can continue to count me in the ‘skeptical’ column. Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group, via facebook<https://www.facebook.com/ianbremmer/photos/a.382808748558842.1073741831.381748875331496/418747388298311/?type=1&theater>: The Iran deal is done. It’s a historic moment. But as important as it is to defang Iran’s nuclear threat, the bigger story is what the deal means for Iran’s new standing in a crumbling geopolitical order. Three changes will matter most. First, the competition between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia will heat up, and the balance of power will tip toward Tehran. Saudi Arabia is now pumping the most oil since 1980, but an unsanctioned Iran will cut into Saudi market share. Iran is the holder of the world's fourth-largest proven crude oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves, and will soon bring 1 million barrels a day back to the market. Meanwhile, proxy fights in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and elsewhere will intensify. As the U.S. and Europe look to reduce their presence in the region, the escalation of proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran will heighten the risk of direct conflict. Next, Iran will open for business. The world will trade again with Iran’s $420 billion economy. Trade with the EU could expand as much as 400 percent, from $8.3 billion last year. Economic benefits will spill across the Gulf. Dubai will become a launch pad for foreign investment in Iran. And the investors are coming. Iran is not just another Middle Eastern petro-state; it offers investors a diversified economy with an established capital market. Its population of 80 million, the second largest in the Middle East, promises consumer demand across sectors as varied as travel and logistics to pharmaceuticals and consumer products. By some estimates, the nuclear deal could accelerate growth in Iran to 8 percent over the next three years and motivate the potential return of hundreds of thousands of highly talented Iranians. Finally, Iran will lead the fight against ISIS. Obama is in no position to put U.S. boots on the ground, but the more battles ISIS wins in the Middle East, the more of a problem it will become internationally. Washington needs someone with the will and resources to deal ISIS a strong blow. And that’s Iran. Though economic sanctions and a global arms embargo have limited the sophistication of Iran’s military powers (Iran spends a fifth as much as Saudi Arabia on boosting its military assets), the expansion of Iranian influence and economic capabilities will pave the way for greater defense leadership in the Middle East. Iraqi Shia militias, backed by Iran, will offer a desperately-needed counter to ISIS. Will Iran cheat on the deal? Yes. The U.S. and Iran aren’t about to start trusting one other, much less become fast friends. But in the world created by the deal, Iran starts to matter much more than Saudi Arabia and other old-guard U.S. allies. Today’s deal isn’t the end of the story. It’s only the end of the first chapter. Ehud Ya’ari, top Arab Affairs Analysts, on Channel 2 news: “It’s not as bad as we thought.” Jane Eisner, editor in chief, Forward<http://forward.com/opinion/editorial/311966/why-iran-deal-deserves-a-fair-shake-and-hard-look/#ixzz3fsKl2ZzH>: “The vexing problem for American Jews is that consideration of this deal has become so intertwined with support for Israel that it may be impossible to arrive at an unbiased judgment.” Hillary Clinton, in private meeting with House Democrats<http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/iran-nuclear-talks/clinton-deal-important-step-putting-lid-iran-nuke-program-n391786?cid=sm_tw&hootPostID=586ad55e85e7b2decc49f63ad306fb6c> The deal is an "important step in putting a lid on Iran's nuclear program." MK Isaac Herzog, as reported by the Jerusalem Post:<http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Amid-news-of-Iran-deal-opposition-leader-Herzog-to-fly-to-the-US-408941?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter> Herzog will be travelling to the US to “demand a dramatic package of security measures for Israel.” ... “In regards to security I am more extreme than Netanyahu.” Tzipi Livni on Iran deal: “dangerous and destructive” Benjamin Netanyahu on Iran deal<http://www.haaretz.com/1.665821>: “Stunning, historic mistake.” Naftali Bennett, via twitter<https://twitter.com/naftalibennett/status/620878075971043328>: On July 14th, 2015 a terror nuclear superpower is born. Israel will defend itself. Sen. Joe Lieberman via House Foreign Affairs Committee<https://twitter.com/JamieNBCNews/status/620962111397732352>: “There is much more risk for America and reward for Iran than there should be in the agreement... This is a bad deal for America, a bad deal for Iran’s neighbors in the Middle East and a bad deal for the world." Dennis Ross via Washington Post<http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/iran-deal-leaves-us-with-tough-questions/2015/07/14/7f76e3b0-2807-11e5-b77f-eb13a215f593_story.html>: “Opponents need to explain what happens if the rest of the world accepts this deal, Iran says it is ready to implement it — and Congress blocks it. Will the European Union, which explicitly commits in the agreement to lift sanctions once Iran has fulfilled its main nuclear responsibilities, not do so because Congress says no? Can sanctions really be sustained in these circumstances, particularly if the Iranians don’t increase their enrichment and say they will observe the deal? Could we be faced with a world in which the sanctions regime collapses, Iran gets its windfall and is only two months from breakout, and there is little on-ground visibility into its program? Maybe the answer is no, but the skeptics need to explain what we can do to ensure that this is not the outcome.” Aaron David Miller oped- in Wall Street Journal<http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/07/14/five-things-to-watch-for-in-the-wake-of-iran-nuclear-deal/>: “Whether you’re about to break open the champagne or don sack cloth over the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal<http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-world-powers-reach-nuclear-deal-1436861667>, you may have questions about the agreement. Here are five things to look out for in the coming days, as we all assess the text of the agreement and reactions to it.:” Abe Foxman, via ADL Statement<http://www.adl.org/press-center/press-releases/israel-middle-east/adl-deeply-disappointed-early-assessment-deal-with-iran.html#.VaUqQPlViko>: “We are deeply disappointed by the terms of the final deal with Iran announced today which seem to fall far short of the President’s objective of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear weapon state. The thrust of the deal relies substantially on Iran’s good faith and the ability of the IAEA to effectively carry out its inspection obligations.” Sen. Chuck Schumer statement<https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/620968844182421504>: “Supporting or opposing this agreement is not a decision to be made lightly, and I plan to carefully study the agreement before making an informed decision.”