Anna Staver

Statesman Journal

Oregon is known for being green, but this November voters will decide just how green they really want to be.

That's because Oregonians get to choose whether they want to legalize recreational marijuana for people who are 21 or older.

Measure 91 would allow a household to have up to 8 ounces of marijuana and to cultivate up to four plants. A person could carry up to 1 ounce with them. It would also give the Oregon Liquor Control Commission authority to oversee and regulate recreational sales, which would start in January 2016.

It would be similar to the way the commission regulates wine and beer rather than alcohol because the state wouldn't own or distribute marijuana products.

Recreational marijuana would be taxed at $1.50 a gram or $35 an ounce, according to the initiative. That money would be used for schools, law enforcement, drug treatment programs and mental health programs.

Mazen Malik, an economist with the Legislative Revenue Office, estimates recreational sales would generate about $16 million for the first fiscal year, and Oregon would earn a $9 million in profit.

That number's expected to accelerate in the 2018 and 2019 fiscal years, according to Malik's office. He anticipates the state will earn $40.9 during the 2017-19 biennium.

The state's revenue predictions assume the economists are correct in predicting that 11 percent, or 416,721, Oregonians would consume marijuana products.

And it assumes they also correctly guessed how many people will convert immediately from the black market.

Marijuana sells for about $177 ounce on Oregon's black market, but legal pot could sell for $330 an ounce.

About 30 percent of users are expected to convert immediately, but the rest will wait for the price of legal marijuana to become more in line with black market prices.

That's proven to be the case in Colorado and Washington, which legalized recreational marijuana in 2012.

Colorado also has seen less revenue from sales because medical marijuana users, who the state believes belong in the recreational market, aren't switching. Taxes collected from medical marijuana in Colorado are outpacing recreational revenue.

Oregon was the first state to decriminalize the possession of small amounts of marijuana, but voters rejected legalizing cannabis 55 percent to 45 percent in 2012.

That effort, lead by Paul Stanford, received little financial support from national marijuana advocacy organizations — which called the initiative poorly written.

The Yes on 91 campaign leaders say they've learned from those mistakes and call their initiative a "sober" approach to legalization. Their measure places limits on personal possession, sets the age at 21 rather than 18 and bans public consumption.

Their approach appears to be working.

The group has raised more than $2 million, according to online records from the Secretary of State.

And Measure 91 has earned the endorsement of several high profile Oregon officials like former U.S. Attorney Kris Olson and former Oregon Supreme Court Justice Bill Riggs.

The No on 91 campaign also has its share of prominent supporters, including the Oregon Sheriff's Association — which donated $100,000.

Whether Measure 91 will pass in November remains too close to call.

A Survey USA poll done for KATU-TV in September showed Measure 91 with a narrow lead of 44 to 40 percent.

That's within the margin of error for the poll and it showed the ballot initiative only enjoying majority support among voters 18 to 34 — who have been the least likely to vote in midterm elections.

astaver@StatesmanJournal.com, (503) 399-6610, or follow on Twitter @AnnaStaver

Three reasons why the opponents of Measure 91 think you should vote no:

1. What's the hurry: Legalization will create significant public health costs, such as increased teen use of marijuana and marijuana related traffic fatalities. Washington and Colorado are now experimenting with legalization, and within a few years, we'll know if it's working or if it is not worth the risk.

Let's let Washington and Colorado learn the hard lessons of what happens when you license big marijuana to start marketing the drug just like big tobacco marketed cigarettes.

If it works, then follow suit. If not, then we have spared ourselves huge public health and tax costs.

2. 91 means more kids using marijuana and falling behind developmentally: In Colorado, big marijuana is targeting kids as their most promising source of profit, from gummy bears to children's cereal infused with pot that slick marijuana industry salesmen are hoping to hook kids as lifetime customers.

They are even suing for the right to market and advertise as they choose.

Measure 91 allows precisely the same "edible marijuana" products that are being sold in Colorado — where marijuana-related emergency rooms visits have seen a 57 percent jump from 2011 to 2013.

We don't need more kids using pot in Oregon.

3. 91 Has NO drugged driving limit: Measure 91 contains 35 pages, 86 Sections and thousands of words and not one clause creates a limit to keep our roadways safe from drugged drivers. We all know the limit for alcohol, it is .08 percent.

But 91 has no such standard, making driving under the influence of marijuana difficult to enforce.

The pot industry says "don't worry, we'll take care of that later." That type of thinking doesn't keep our roads safe. And neither does Measure 91.

Three reasons why the supporters of Measure 91 think you should vote yes:

1. Stop wasting money and police time by treating marijuana as a crime. Police have arrested or cited more than 99,000 people in Oregon for marijuana over the last decade – at a time when Oregon has untested rape kits, missing children and unsolved murders.

By regulating and legalizing marijuana only for adults 21 and older, Measure 91 will free up time and money for police to focus on serious, violent and unsolved crimes.

2. Stop ruining lives and drive out the cartels instead. Criminalizing marijuana has led to unnecessary arrests and prosecutions of Oregonians, which puts people into the criminal justice system instead of into drug treatment and prevention programs.

Drug cartels, gangs and illegal dealers make a tax-free profit, and grow it illegally on forest and parkland.

By regulating and legalizing marijuana, Measure 91 takes power and money away from the criminal market and drug cartels, and the taxes on marijuana go to police, schools and drug prevention and treatment programs.

3. The problems caused by marijuana are made worse by the current system and are better addressed by Measure 91. Right now we aren't controlling marijuana at all, and drug cartels and dealers are in charge.

Under Measure 91, marijuana will be regulated and legal only for adults over 21, taking power and money away from the drug cartels and freeing up police to address violent crime.

Fewer drug dealers means less access for kids. Taxes on marijuana means prevention programs for kids will be funded.