With one well-received January speech in Iowa, Scott Walker shot to the top of the polls. After a successful campaign launch, Marco Rubio is slowly gaining ground with donors and with conservatives who see a candidate with an inspiring biography and exceptional skills as a communicator.

Yet it’s Jeb Bush who’s frequently described as the front-runner in a crowded field of more than a dozen Republican candidates. The reality is that he’s not — at this stage in the nominating contest, no one is.


“The Republican nomination is wide open,” said Ana Navarro, a Miami-based strategist who is close to Bush. “We’ll try many flavors of the month before we settle on one.”

Bush, the former Florida governor who hasn’t run for office in 13 years, seemed impressive right out of the gate with his sudden, aggressive moves last November. He sent strong enough signals to box out Mitt Romney, the 2012 nominee who’d been toying with a third run for the White House, and began securing commitments from GOP operatives to work on his eventual campaign and from the donors needed to fund it.

Based on the early show of strength, Bush was anointed the “clear Republican front-runner” last December, referencing a poll showing him leading the field with 23 percent of the overall Republican vote nationwide.

Now, as the field is beginning to take shape and voters are hearing more about other candidates, it’s clear that Bush is sitting right there on the starting line with everyone else: Walker, Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie and more than a dozen second-tier candidates less likely to affect the battle for the nomination.

From his position on Common Core to immigration reform to his family name, it’s become abundantly clear Bush has a lot to overcome. For all the substance and thoughtfulness he’s brought to the enterprise to date, many Republicans simply hunger for a younger, fresher face — and more ardently conservative stances from the party’s next standard-bearer.

“No voter has ever raced to put a bumper sticker on their car because a candidate has the most money and best organization,” said Kevin Madden, a GOP strategist who advised Romney in 2012. “They want someone with a bold vision who can provide a new direction and offer a stark contrast to Hillary Clinton.”

Bush’s challenges were evident this past weekend in New Hampshire, a state he may have to win, where he performed flawlessly over three days last week yet seemed to generate less excitement from audiences than several of his rivals.

He responded smartly to a woman who stood up during a Politics and Eggs event at St. Anselm College and told him she didn’t want a coronation, saying he doubted one was coming his way. But even the right answer and pitch-perfect tone couldn’t dispel the dynastic aura surrounding a man whose father and brother have both been elected president — especially with large framed photographs of them hanging high on the walls around the meeting room.

“It’s going to be tough for Bush to be the shiny new thing in the way that a Rubio or a Walker could be,” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.

After holding forth for nearly an hour and demonstrating fluency on a range of policy areas, Bush met the press in a small room down the hall. The questions there focused on nagging political issues — the Bush brand and whether Rubio, who Bush mentored as a young Florida lawmaker, stabbed his friend in the back by entering the presidential race.

“Can you compare your foreign policy approach to your brother’s?” asked one reporter.

“No,” Bush replied.

It’s not a question Bush will be able to avoid. But campaign advisers believe the 10 months from now until the start of primary season will be enough time to address the differences between Jeb and his brother, to clarify his own ideas and beliefs so that, in the end, people see a candidate who is his own man and willing to work for the nomination.

If Bush can no longer claim the mantle of front-runner, it’s due at least in part to the rise of some of his rivals and the early traction they’ve gained. Walker, the Wisconsin governor, has a recent record of conservative reform and shows potential to win support from the more moderate GOP establishment and the party’s tea party base.

Rubio, the Florida senator, looks to have the backing of enough well-heeled donors to build a serious organization. He appeals to a wide swath of conservatives who like his hawkishness on foreign policy and recognize that his unique charisma and inspiring biography could make him a formidable general-election candidate.

Few doubt that Bush, who’s expected to raise more money than any other candidate in the field, is built for the long haul. His ability to build a broader, more diverse coalition and his resources will enable him to run a campaign in much larger and more expensive states like Florida — where a week of TV ads airing statewide will run at least $3 million.

But first he must run the early state gantlet, where the conservative grass roots in states like Iowa and South Carolina aren’t yet enamored of him. That makes New Hampshire, where Bush is better situated, a critical test. At the moment, Bush trails Walker in the polls in all three of those states.

“The early states don’t come easy,” said Stuart Stevens, chief strategist/media adviser for Romney’s 2012 campaign. “If you want to win the nomination, you’ve got to win one of the first four.”

Unlike Romney in 2012, Bush may not be able to count on his rivals collapsing and voters coming home to him — a less exciting, but safe, choice — for lack of viable options.

“I’m impressed by the quality of the field,” Scala said. “It’s not Mitt Romney and a bunch of B-list, C-list candidates; it’s a quality field. I can imagine that activists are just kind of enjoying the buffet at this point.”

James Hohmann and Cate Martel contributed to this report.