LAST night Doug Ducey, Arizona’s treasurer and a former head of Cold Stone Creamery, a chain of ice-cream parlours, emerged victorious in a six-way Republican primary with 37% of the vote to become the party's candidate for November's gubernatorial race. This put him more than 15 points ahead of the second-place finisher, Scott Smith, and more than 20 points in front of Christine Jones, a former executive at GoDaddy, a web-hosting firm based in Scottsdale. Immigration was the most prominent issue of the race, and provided momentum to Mr Ducey’s once flagging campaign after national concern erupted over the number of children entering America illegally in June. He wants more fences, satellites and guards to keep immigrants from crossing the border, and more police and prosecutors to crack down on those who make it over. He decried the federal government’s “botched” handling of border security but kept quiet on thornier questions of immigration reform and paths to citizenship for illegal immigrants brought to America as kids. While Mr Smith eventually won the backing of Arizona’s outgoing governor, Jan Brewer (pictured), Mr Ducey received support from Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz, which helped sway Arizona’s conservative primary electorate. His strong anti-abortion views, steadfast opposition to Obamacare and promise to simplify Arizona’s tax code also went down well.

Mr Ducey’s victory will boost the tea party in a largely disappointing primary season. But touting his right wing credentials too loudly may alienate voters come November. Hispanics cannot make or break elections in Arizona as they can in New Mexico or Colorado reckons Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, but 30% of the state’s 6.5m residents belong to the group (although only 60% of those eligible to vote did so in 2012).

The fact that Fred DuVal, the only Democrat with eyes on the governor’s mansion, has had a smooth ride so far may also hinder Mr Ducey. His defeated Republican colleagues have spent time and money rubbing voters’ noses in his supposed failings: the solution of a dispute related to the sale of Cold Stone in 2007 through arbitration (the records of which are private) came under particular scrutiny. The primary’s late scheduling mean such attacks may not be forgotten come November.

The state has had five red and five blue governors since January 2, 1967. But a moderate increase in the number of Hispanics since the last gubernatorial race, and Mr DuVal’s 16 point lead with independent voters (who now outnumber either registered Republican voters or Democrat voters for the first time in the state’s history) suggest that Mr Ducey may have seized his only victory already. But, as Dr Sabato explains, "you just never know in Arizona."

(Picture credit Krista Kennell/AFP)