Niagara Centre MP Vance Badawey announces $5.9 million in federal government funding, through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s (CHMC) rental construction financing initiative, for Old Oak Place, a 50-unit affordable housing building on King Street in Welland. Dave Johnson/Welland Tribune photo

Liberal MP Vance Badawey would comfortably win re-election in his Niagara Centre riding if voters headed to the polls today, a new Mainstreet Research poll for iPolitics suggests.

Thirty-nine per cent of respondents in the survey said they would vote for Badawey, while 28 per cent would back Conservative candidate April Jeffs. Another 15 per cent would cast a ballot for the NDP’s Malcolm Allen, who represented the riding from 2008 to 2015.

Eleven per cent said they were undecided, while five per cent backed Green candidate Michael Tomaino. Jesse Misener of the People’s Party of Canada and the option of an unspecified “another candidate” won the backing of one per cent of respondents each.

The phone survey of 482 voters was conducted between July 15 and 16. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.46 percentage points.

When leaning voters are included, Badawey draws the support of 40 per cent of respondents, compared to 30 for Jeffs and 16 for Allen. If the undecided voters are removed from this pool, Badawey’s support jumps to 44 per cent, while Jeffs and Allen’s rise to 31 and 17 per cent, respectively.

In 2015, Badawey took the riding from the NDP with 35.7 per cent of the vote. Allen was a close second at 31.5 per cent, while the Conservatives were not far behind at 29.7 per cent. Welland is the most populous city wholly within the borders of the riding, which also captures Thorold, Port Colborne and a small section of St. Catharines.

When asked specifically about the parties, 38 per cent of respondents say they’d cast a ballot for the Liberal Party in the next election, though 15 per cent said they are undecided.

The Tories are the second most popular selection, 11 points behind the Grits at 27 per cent, while the NDP has the support of 11 per cent of respondents.

The Greens grab six per cent of support, followed by the People’s Party of Canada and unspecified “another party” at one per cent each.

When including leaning voters, the Liberal lead over the Tories grows to 13 points (42-29 per cent). If leaning voters are included and undecided voters removed, the Liberals are up on the Conservatives 44 to 30 per cent.