comments by Aaron Schatz

Welcome to the results of the tenth annual Football Outsiders Awards -- the best and worst players of the year, as voted on by you, our readers. I want to thank everybody who voted in this year's awards, especially if you are one of the people who had to go through and vote twice because of our technical problems. Those same technical problems also cost us the results of the questions about what features readers would like to see added to FO Premium, so we may have that as a separate questionnaire for you guys sometime in the next couple months.

For those curious about the FO Award winners in past years, you will find links to each of the previous FO Awards articles on this page.

Who is your choice as Offensive MVP for 2012? (Last year's winner: Aaron Rodgers)



51.6% Adrian Peterson

22.8% Peyton Manning

10.7% Tom Brady

5.8% San Francisco offensive line (as a group)

3.5% Aaron Rodgers 2.3% Russell Wilson

2.1% Robert Griffin

0.6% Matt Ryan

0.4% Andrew Luck

0.2% Andre Johnson

I'm a little bit surprised that Peterson won by such a wide margin. FO readers, like FO writers, generally seem to believe that the running back position is overrated, and that most running backs are fairly interchangable. Only a few players are transcendent enough to rise above the pack, and Peterson is certainly number one among those players. We've always talked about running back success being heavily dependent on the offensive line, but there's a lot of evidence against that idea in Peterson's case. Minnesota was just tenth in Adjusted Line Yards, and 29th in preventing runners from being stuffed at the line. Peterson averaged 6.0 yards per carry. His backup, Toby Gerhart, averaged 3.4 yards per carry behind the same offensive line.



Who is your choice as Defensive MVP for 2012? (Last year's winner: Justin Smith)



75.1% J.J. Watt

6.8% Justin Smith

5.8% Richard Sherman

4.5% Von Miller 4.3% Charles Tillman

2.1% Geno Atkins

1.2% Vince Wilfork

0.2% Patrick Peterson

We've pretty much covered this one in full already; for those who missed the initial post, J.J. Watt had 56 Defeats, defined as plays which cause turnovers, tackles for a loss, and tackles or passes defensed to prevent a conversion on third or fourth down. The previous record, tracked back as far as 1996, was 45 by Ray Lewis in 1999.

Who is your choice as NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year for 2012? (Last year's winner: Cam Newton)



56.8% Russell Wilson

31.9% Robert Griffin III

11.3% Andrew Luck

As you might expect, FO readers leaned towards FO stats, which state that Wilson had a more valuable rookie year than Griffin because he had similar value against a tougher schedule. Also, let's be honest, we have a lot of Seahawks fans who read this site. For those wondering, I left Alfred Morris off the ballot to prevent any vote-splitting from Redskins fans. I left Doug Martin off the ballot because... well, I probably should have stuck Doug Martin on there. But he would have finished fourth.



Who is your choice as NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year for 2012? (New category)



29.5% Bobby Wagner

29.0% Luke Kuechly

13.8% Casey Hayward 11.4% Janoris Jenkins

8.3% Chandler Jones

8.0% Lavonte David

I split the Rookie of the Year vote into two categories because I wanted to be able to give all the great defensive rookies of 2012 their proper consideration, rather than having them all get one or two votes and finish way behind the quarterbacks in the balloting. Our big Seattle readership powers Bobby Wagner to a slim victory over Luke Kuechly. Kuechly led the league in defensive plays this year by leaps and bounds. He had 172 plays, 20 more than the next defender. Chad Greenway of Minnesota had 152. Kuechly was also involved on 20.6 percent of Carolina's defensive plays that had a defender listed in the play-by-play. Second behind him at 18.9 percent was... Bobby Wagner.



Who was the best offensive lineman of 2012? (open question, two votes per ballot, top 14 listed) (Last year's winner: Carl Hicks)



23.5% Joe Staley (LT, SF)

11.8% Mike Iupati (LG, SF)

11.2% Duane Brown (LT, HOU)

9.1% Ryan Clady (LT, DEN)

6.6% Joe Thomas (LT, CLE)

5.2% Marshal Yanda (RG, BAL)

5.0% Russell Okung (LT, SEA) 4.1% Evan Mathis (LG, PHI)

4.1% Max Unger (C, SEA)

2.5% Matt Kalil (LT, MIN)

2.3% Trent Williams (LT, WAS)

1.8% Alex Boone (RG, SF)

1.8% Sebastian Vollmer (RT, NE)

1.6% Logan Mankins (LG, NE)

What can I say, the kids like the 49ers. Alex Boone had a nice year as a first-time starter, but "best offensive lineman" is a bit of a stretch. Same goes for rookie Matt Kalil. Otherwise, I'm pretty down with this list.

Who is your choice for NFL Coach of the Year in 2012? (Last year's winner: Jim Harbaugh)



31.5% Jim Harbaugh

29.6% Pete Carroll

25.7% Bruce Arians

3.9% Bill Belichick 3.7% Leslie Frazier

2.1% Mike Smith

1.9% John Harbaugh

1.7% John Fox

It's nice to see that a plurality of FO readers agree with me: Jim Harbaugh's ability to counteract and overcome historical regression trends is just as impressive as the usual "Coach of the Year" feat of taking a losing team to the playoffs a year later. Not to argue with what Pete Carroll and especially Bruce Arians were able to do, of course. We talk a lot about teams like Indianapolis that put together winning records with close wins over bad teams as "lucky," but some part of that difference between expected wins and actual wins is also good coaching. Not always, but often.

Who is your choice for the Bill Arnsparger Award for Coordinator of the Year in 2012? (Last year's winner: Wade Phillips)



23.6% Greg Roman, SF offense

22.1% Kyle Shanahan, WAS offense

18.5% Darrell Bevell, SEA offense

10.4% Ray Horton, ARI defense 7.1% Jack Del Rio, DEN defense

6.7% Josh McDaniels, NE offense

5.8% Mike Zimmer, CIN defense

5.6% Rod Marinelli, CHI defense

This was a tough one, because I try to keep from having two candidates from the same team to prevent vote-splitting, but at the same time there were good reasons to nominate both the offensive and defensive coordinators from Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle. We ended up going with the idea that San Francisco and Seattle's offenses were more creative than their defenses, while Denver's defense was a bigger surprise than the offense because Mike McCoy had Peyton Manning to help him install and direct the offense. Based on the top three finishers in this category, "offensive creativity" was definitely the story of the 2012 season.

By the way, you may laugh at the idea of Rod Marinelli as Coordinator of the Year, but technically the guy was the coordinator of what was by far the best defense in the league this season.



Who is your choice for the Keep Choppin' Wood Award for 2012 (player who most hurt his team, on or off the field)? (Last year's winner: Chris Johnson)



53.7% Mark Sanchez

20.1% Titus Young

7.1% David Akers

5.2% Ryan Lindley

3.7% Mason Crosby 3.1% DeAngelo Hall

2.5% Rolando McClain

2.5% Chilo Rachal

1.0% Kenny Britt

1.0% Corey Webster

"Buttfumble."



Who is your choice for the Keep Choppin' Game Film Award for the worst coach of 2012? (Last year's winner: Juan Castillo)



22.1% Tony Sparano, NYJ offensive coordinator

18.6% Romeo Crennel, KC head coach

15.5% Norv Turner, SD head coach

13.2% Pat Shurmur, CLE head coach 10.3% Ron Rivera, CAR head coach

9.7% Dave Wannstedt, BUF defensive coordinator

7.6% Todd Bowles, PHI defensive coordinator

3.1% Chan Gailey, BUF head coach

What the Jets need is an offensive coordinator who doesn't show up among our nominees for this award. Unlike, say, the last two years. The same goes for the Eagles and defensive coordinators, I suppose.



Who is your choice for the Art Rooney Jr. Award for Executive(s) of the Year? (Last year's winner: Rick Smith)



40.6% John Schneider, SEA

23.0% John Elway, DEN

10.4% Trent Baalke, SF

9.9% Ozzie Newsome, BAL 9.1% Ryan Grigson, IND

3.5% Bill Belichick/Nick Cesario, NE

2.7% Bruce Allen, WAS

0.8% Mark Dominik, TB

See what happens when you provide a back-cover blurb for Football Outsiders Almanac? It also helps to find a franchise quarterback in the third round and a starting middle linebacker in the second round. Another good executive move is convincing Peyton Manning to play outdoors in a cold-weather city. Ryan Grigson, who won the official Executive of the Year award, finishes a surprising fifth in our balloting.



Who is your choice for the John Elway Award for disappointing highly-drafted rookie who turns things around with an impressive sophomore season? (Last year's winner: Demaryius Thomas)



45.2% Kyle Rudolph

21.6% Nick Fairley

17.7% Shane Vereen

10.6% Corey Kiuget

4.8% Lance Kendricks

There weren't too many good nominees for this award, but it was nice to see KUBIAK binky Kyle Rudolph fulfill his potential (albeit in inconsistent fashion, since he had more touchdowns but fewer yards than we had projected).



Who is your pick for the Kurt Warner Award, for a low-drafted (or undrafted) backup who finally has a breakout year as a starter? (New category)



29.5% Alex Boone

19.4% Danario Alexander

16.7% Corey Graham

14.1% Dannell Ellerbe

12.1% Wesley Woodyard

8.1% Ryan Wendell

I came up with the idea for this award after doing all those AFC playoff preview articles. I had no idea during the season that Corey Graham was having such a good year as a cornerback after spending his entire career playing almost entirelty on special teams. Of course, when you come up with an award because of a guy, that guy doesn't necessarily win the award. Maybe it's because I broke my "no vote-splitting" rule when I realized that Dannell Ellerbe was also a very strong candidate.



Who was the least deserving pick for the Pro Bowl? (Last year's winners: Matt Ryan and Brandon Meriweather)



73.0% Jeff Saturday

6.4% LaRon Landry

4.5% Jason Pierre-Paul

3.8% Phil Dawson 2.8% Jamaal Charles

2.8% Robert Mathis

2.6% Logan Mankins

4.4% other nominees

In the past, this was a series of open questions where you could list any name, with separate listings for offense and defense. It started out as "most overrated player" until we decided we wanted some kind of definition for what "overrated player" meant. Then it became "least deserving pick for the Pro Bowl," but we ended up getting a lot a lot of votes for people who were injury or Super Bowl replacements, rather than players who were originally named to the Pro Bowl. So this year, to make my life easier, I combined it all into one category and listed actual nominees. Of course, I had a pretty good idea who was going to win. Next year, it might not be so obvious.

The most deserving offensive player left off the original Pro Bowl roster is: (open question, top 10 listed) (Last year's winner: Matthew Stafford)



15.2% Russell Wilson

12.6% C.J. Spiller

6.6% Dex Bryant

5.6% John Sullivan

5.6% Demaryius Thomas 5.1% Roddy White

4.5% Evan Mathis

4.5% Alfred Morris

4.0% Drew Brees

3.5% Andrew Luck

I suppose the top ten winners in this category could have just all been NFC centers not named Max Unger.

The most deserving defen sive player left off the original Pro Bowl roster is: (open question, top 10 listed) (Last year's winner: London Fletcher)



47.4% Richard Sherman

7.2% Eric Weddle

3.8% Jarius Byrd

3.8% London Fletcher

3.3% Daryl Washington 2.4% Lance Briggs

2.4% Luke Kuechly

2.4% Chris Long

1.9% Anthony Spencer

1.9% Lawrence Timmons

I think people feel pretty strongly about this one. Tim Jennings had a pretty good year, but I would have sent Sherman to the Pro Bowl over him. Although I don't know if I would have sent Sherman to the Pro Bowl over Patrick Peterson, who was the reserve cornerback behind Jennings and Charles Tillman.

London Fletcher has finally gone to Hawaii the last couple seasons, as an injury replacement or Super Bowl replacement, but he's still never been on the original Pro Bowl roster and probably never will be. With Ray Lewis retiring, the question has to be asked: how long can this guy go? It's remarkable how long he's played at a high level. Dick Butkus was basically the Sandy Koufax of middle linebackers, and London Fletcher is Warren Spahn.

The most underrated special teams player in the NFL is: (open question, top eight listed) (Last year's winner: Devin Hester)



26.8% Justin Tucker

6.5% Andy Lee

4.3% Josh Cribbs

4.3% Jon Ryan 3.6% Trindon Holliday

3.6% Zoltan Mesko

2.9% Sebastian Janikowski

2.9% (tie) Leodis McKelvin and Greg Zuerlein

For those who missed it, Justin Tucker was the best kicker in the league this year by FO metrics, and it wasn't even close. He was third in value on field goals, and first in value on kickoffs. I think Hester got votes for "underrated" last year because he didn't make the Pro Bowl.

Which is your choice for Game of the Year in 2012? (Last year's choice: San Francisco 36, New Orleans 32 in the Divisional Round)



38.9% Divisional: Baltimore 38 at Devner 35 (2OT)

17.5% Week 15: San Francisco 41 at New England 34

17.0% Divisional: Seattle 28 at Atlanta 30

7.1% Week 3: Green Bay 12 at Seattle 14

6.7% Week 5: Green Bay 34 at Minnesota 37

3.7% Green Bay 27 at Indianapolis 30 2.3% Week 14: Baltimore 28 at Washington 31 (OT)

1.9% Week 3: New England 30 at Baltimore 31

1.7% Week 6: Denver 35 at San Diego 24

1.5% Week 3: Detroit 41 at Tennessee 44 (OT)

1.0% Week 15: Pittsburgh 24 at Dallas 27

0.8% Week 10: Atlanta 27 at New Orleans 31

Player most likely to breakout in 2013 (open question, top 10 listed): (Last year's winner: Matt Flynn)



7.2% LaMichael James

5.7% David Wilson

4.5% Ryan Tannehill

3.4% Trent Richardson

3.0% Bernard Pierce 2.6% Sam Bradford

2.6% Alshon Jeffery

2.6% Andrew Luck

2.3% T.Y. Hilton

2.3% Chandler Jones

It's amazing that the San Francisco 49ers had almost no snaps from their rookies this season. James can definitely play a bigger role next year. Wilson will probably be the Giants' starting running back now that Ahmad Bradshaw has been cut. I'm not quite sure about the Ryan Tannehill breakout. They have to find people for him to throw to.

As for Matt Flynn, whoops.

Player most likely to significantly decline in 2013 ( open question, top 10 listed): (Last year's winner: Tim Tebow)



12.5% Robert Griffin

10.7% Peyton Manning

9.3% Tom Brady

8.5% Adrian Peterson

5.3% Colin Kaepernick 4.6% Arian Foster

3.9% Wes Welker

3.9% Russell Wilson

2.5% J.J. Watt

2.1% Marshawn Lynch

The injury sort of makes this one obvious for Robert Griffin, but I'm not sure why Manning and Brady can't keep doing the same thing they've been doing year after year except for the years they were injured (Brady in 2008, Manning in 2011). Maybe some of the votes for Brady and Wes Welker come from the idea that without the two together, one or both of them will see a performance decline.

Which of the following teams is most likely next year's surprise Super Bowl contender? (Last year's choice: Carolina)



17.7% Carolina

15.8% St. Louis

13.9% Tampa Bay

10.8% Philadephia

8.6% Detroit

7.4% Miami 6.1% San Diego

5.9% Kansas City

5.5% Arizona

4.4% Cleveland

2.1% Buffalo

1.4% other nominees

I suppose that if in 2012 you don't succeed, try, try again.

Which playoff team is most likely to miss the playoffs in 2013? (Last year's choice: Denver)



35.7% Minnesota

26.1% Indianapolis

15.1% Washington

11.4% Cincinnati

5.6% Baltimore

2.1% Houston 1.2% Atlanta

0.8% Seattle

0.6% Denver

0.6% Green Bay

0.6% New England

0.0% San Francisco

That's right, zero votes for San Francisco, even though the NFC West now looks like a tough division with the 49ers competing with Seattle and an up-and-coming St. Louis Rams team.

The "Get Your Story Straight" Award for best commercial during NFL games this year goes to:

(Last year's choice: Google with the Muppets "Under Pressure")



35.2% NFL Play 60 Cam Newton

17.9% AT&T "Tape a Cheetah to Grandma's Back"

17.0% Volkswagen father and son playing catch

15.2% State Farm Discount Double Check (Aaron Rodgers career day)

13.0% Old Spice Greg Jennings campaign

1.6% Verizon NFL Mobile Packers Fan

The "John Mellencamp Must Die" Award for most annoying commercial during NFL games this year goes to:

(Last year's choice: Miller Lite "Second most unmanly thing you did today")



34.7% Pepsi Drew Brees/One Direction

16.7% Bud Light Superstitious Niners Fan

16.7% KFC Gameday Bucket

12.5% NFL Network Blue Suit Guy campaign

11.9% State Farm Discount Double Check (Aaron Rodgers career day)

7.5% Volkswagen father and son playing catch

The funniest moment of the NFL season was:



∞ "Buttfumble"

I forgot to include this category in this season's awards, but it would have had only one nominated event, right?

That does it for the 2012 Football Outsiders Awards. Once again, thanks to all the readers for voting. Next stop: The offseason!