We are down to just 11 teams left competing for a Playoff spot, with USC and Washington State having an outside shot of hoping for a miracle. Like last week, the biggest question to look at is how Alabama’s resume stacks up if it loses a game. There is no real bubble this year. There are a lot of teams that control their own destinies right now, and a few teams waiting in the wings if upsets happen.

How this works

Let’s give a quick review of how this works.

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On the one hand, the resume is which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.

Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume.

I’m also changing a new category this season. Both Jeff Long and Kirby Hocutt constantly mention “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to also. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Appalachian State)–the committee cares about it, so we have to.

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.

BUBBLE WATCH

I’m only making three sections this week. There are a lot of teams that control their own destiny, then there’s Oklahoma–who all but controls its own destiny–and lastly there is everybody else, who are all just waiting for teams in front of them to lose. There is a pecking order of those teams in the final category, and I will put the teams in that order.

Controls their own destiny

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) Alabama 0-0 2-0 1-0 5-0 3-0 45-65 5 6.7 (10) 3.9 (1)

Playing Mercer isn’t the only thing that hurt Alabama’s resume this week. Both Vanderbilt and Colorado State also slipped into cupcake range this week, and Tennessee and Arkansas are in serious danger of joining them. The SOS numbers will go up, a lot, after playing Auburn and Georgia. But, really, it is very difficult to understand the narrative that Wisconsin’s schedule is so weak. Just look at Wisconsin’s resume below. The Badgers, to this point, have a better SOS than Alabama by almost every metric.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) Wisconsin 0-0 2-0 2-0 5-0 2-0 35-60 5 6.2 (28) 3.9 (2)

Seriously, compare this resume to Alabama’s. Wisconsin has a better SOS, better wins at every level (though the computers love Michigan a lot more than the committee does, but even if Michigan is a Top 40 instead of Top 25 team the point still stands). Like Alabama, a few of Wisconsin’s opponents in that 40-80 range are almost in the cupcake area (like Utah State), but this is a strong resume. Common consensus is that Wisconsin can’t survive a loss to Minnesota, but look at this resume and compare it to everyone else’s. Wisconsin should be in at 12-1 and Big Ten champs.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) Georgia 1-1 2-0 1-0 3-0 3-0 15-45 6 6.5 (15) 4.4 (8)

Missouri now has a winning record, and Kentucky stayed in the Top 40. This resume has some real positives, but a few of them are unlikely to last (South Carolina probably won’t be ranked next week). Still, this is strong, and with a good SOS. Georgia is in the Playoff if it wins out, and is probably out if it loses in the SEC Championship Game. What if Georgia loses to Georgia Tech but wins the SEC? Compare this resume to Ohio State’s below, and it’s favorable. Georgia can probably survive one more loss, as long as it wins the SEC.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) Auburn 1-1 1-1 1-0 3-0 3-0 20-40 3 6.4 (20) 4.2 (6)

The Tigers’ three wins over Top 40 teams are their only wins over +.500 teams. It won’t matter, though. Two more wins means two more really good wins, and the SOS and metrics are good. Auburn cannot survive a loss, no matter when it comes, but the Tigers are two wins away from the Playoff.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) Miami 1-0 1-0 1-0 5-0 2-0 25-55 4 6.2 (24) 4.5 (12)

The Hurricanes have a decent resume, but it’s an undefeated one. There aren’t so many good wins, but the win over Notre Dame is a great one. The metrics are also strong, and the game against Clemson to end the season is a huge one. There are so few teams behind them that Miami can almost certainly survive a loss to Pitt and still get in the Playoff if the Hurricanes beat Clemson.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) Clemson 1-0 1-0 3-0 2-1 2-0 10-40 6 5.7 (47) 4.2 (5)

Clemson’s five Top 40 wins is second in the country. People think that ranking South Carolina was just an excuse by the committee to give Clemson another good win, but the Tigers don’t need it. This resume is strong, and there are not four teams better if Clemson wins out. Clemson might even be able to survive a loss to South Carolina, but the Tigers would need a lot of help in that case.

Oklahoma

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) Oklahoma 1-0 1-0 1-1 4-0 3-0 15-80 5 8.1 (1) 5.6 (69)

The Sooners get their own category. They should control their own destiny, but there is a horror scenario (Georgia beating Alabama; Miami and Wisconsin winning out) that makes it a drop less than guaranteed. The defensive numbers are getting better, and this is a strong resume. The Big 12 SOS numbers always have a huge range, as for some reason some formulas like the Big 12 a lot more than others. This is a trend that been noticeable for a few years now, though I only have guesses as to why.

Waiting for a chance

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) Ohio State 1-1 1-0 1-1 3-0 3-0 15-50 3 7.1 (5) 4.3 (7)

The Buckeyes are relying on their metrics here. Bill Connelly’s S&P+ ratings–widely regarded as one of the best advanced metrics systems–has Ohio State at No. 1 right now. If the goal is to put the four best teams, then Ohio State has a strong case. As the resume goes, though, it’s only decent. The Iowa loss was ugly, but if Alabama, Miami, and Oklahoma win out then there isn’t any much better option at No. 4.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) Notre Dame 1-2 1-0 4-0 1-0 2-0 1-5 6 6.3 (21) 4.9 (24)

I have no idea why people are counting the Irish out. This resume is really, really strong. I should probably have them ahead of Ohio State, honestly. The six Top 40 wins leads the country. After a game against Stanford, this will be a consensus top SOS in the country. Both losses are to Top 10 teams. The Miami loss was ugly, but the Georgia loss was not. If Alabama, Miami, and Oklahoma all win out (and Ohio State wins), I’m not sure why Notre Dame should not be No. 4. If there is even one more upset in that scenario (say, Oklahoma loses to TCU), then the Irish should be a playoff team.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) UCF 0-0 1-0 1-0 4-0 4-0 70-90 4 7.5 (2) 5.1 (38)

This resume is missing real meat, though the win over Memphis is decent. The final two games against USF and Memphis again will improve those SOS numbers, and will also give the Golden Knights a respectable six wins over +.500 teams. The committee has clearly showed an unreasonable bias against UCF, but maybe that will stop after two more good wins. It should, if the committee is actually being honest.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over +.500 Off YPP (rank) Def YPP (rank) TCU 0-1 0-0 1-1 6-0 2-0 30-65 5 5.7 (44) 4.8 (20)

No one’s resume has been hurt more by Oklahoma State’s troubles than TCU. This once-somewhat-respectable resume no longer has any meat to it. Getting Baylor this week won’t help the SOS numbers, either. If they get some chaos and beat Oklahoma then the Horned Frogs could make it in, but it’s unlikely.