ESPN has released its Football Power Index (FPI) following week six of the 2018 college football season. For those unfamiliar with the FPI, it is a proprietary measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. The projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the upcoming season.

During the 2017 football season, the ESPN FPI's accuracy in predicting the outcome of a game were significantly better the further apart the win probabilities were, as you would expect. When projecting a team with over an 80-percent win probability, the FPI was correct in predicting the winner 90-percent of the time. However, when the win probability for a team was from 50 to 70-percent, the FPI only hit on 54-percent of those games, making them truly toss-up contests.

The Florida Gators are currently 5-1 on the season and rank No. 10 in the nation with an FPI of 15.9 at this juncture of the year. The FPI also gives Florida a 2.4-percent chance of winning the Southeastern Conference.