Summary:

For the evenings “main course” Brazil is treated to a rubber match between legends, as Vitor Belfort & Dan Henderson do battle one final time. When you not only consider their last meeting, but the fact that Henderson is 2-7 in the last four years, it’s easy to see why Belfort comes in as the favorite. His only losses in nine years comes to the sports best(Silva, Jones, and Weidman), but he’s only fought once in the last 2 years in what has arguably been a troublesome time in “The Phenom’s” career. Though I do acknowledge Vitor’s positive test/level history, and his visible physical to performance variances, I try to maintain efficacy by keeping my analysis technically based and free from private intangibles or personal opinions(That doesn’t mean I don’t factor in these intangibles for my personal analysis or private plays).

With all that out of the way, let’s jump into this bouts technical action. Vitor is well known for his blitzing killer-instinct but is primarily a counter fighter. Habitually slipping to his left, Belfort possesses an excellent left uppercut-right hook counter. I would say that this is Henderson’s best chance to land his right, but in their most recent(and relevant) fight, we saw Vitor’s speed & technique prevail as his countering was spot on. Granted it’s in Dan’s entries where he’s most vulnerable, he’ll none the less have to show improvements and awareness here. With a “never say die” aggression & power, Henderson will often throw himself off balance and out of position. It’s here that he’s available for TD’s & counter punches, especially given his nature to overcorrect this by swinging back into the fire(his opponents range).

Defensively, Dan keeps his right hand high and will dip & slip hard to that side. He will have to be careful when doing this with Vitor’s looming left high kick. Sharpening and showing this tool since his fight with “Sexy-Yamma”, this could once again prove useful to Belfort with Dan’s propensity to lean heavily right. Henderson’s best chance to beat Belfort’s speed & aggression is utilize his counter right-hand set ups. As we saw in his fights with Fedor & Boetsch, Dan can still be effective with his power moving backwards. Henderson should also have an advantage on the floor, but given Vitor’s movement & Dan’s TD tendencies(10 for 27 TD’s in 39 fights) I doubt we’ll see much ground time. However, should this fight go past a second round, I feel Dan’s TD interests & overall chances of winning will greatly increase.

The one intangible I will factor in(and you should too) is the age & experience of each man’s glorious but weathered career. Though I feel Henderson’s line is mis-valued & worth looking at, I’d avoid any Fantasy picks despite this being a 5 round affair. I am self admittedly a huge Dan Henderson fan, but in unbiasedly looking at the information I give a slight edge to Belfort in this fight. Although I don’t necessarily agree that “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks”, I feel any expectations on either man should be respectfully tempered as so.

Official Pick: Belfort – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Belfort – KO round 1.