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I am joined by joined by Nick Burns a former ambassador to Greece and also the professor of diplomacy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. So Ambassador great to see you here. It seems like we're so far away from any of the turmoil in Greece after the latest headlines right. Likes to separate says that I believe is what he said. I hope that the Greeks vote no to these measures. Why he thinks he's in a negotiation. He thinks the negotiation has not ended. And I think the calculation on the part of Syriza his political party is if the Greek people vote no secrets can go back to Prime Minister to to Angela Merkel and to the creditors and say I've got the people behind me you need to listen to us. You need to reschedule our debt. And that strategy in my view is not going to work because the Europeans have already decided what the game is. Hang on. I thought he already had the people behind him even before going into these latest round of talks. Right. Well the Greeks have had a horrific five years their economy has contracted by 25 percent . They have 50 percent youth unemployment. So the Greek people want an end of this right. And they want relief and they want some economic hope and CPS said he would get that for him. But he was of course I think he overplayed his hand. He felt in this diplomatic game of chicken over the last four or five months that he could outfox the Europeans they held firm and he's really left with this vote and trying to get back to the negotiating table next week in a stronger position. OK. So likelihood this referendum will result in a What vote. Hard to say but it looks like it looks like the polls are trending towards a yes vote that more Greeks kind of understand right now if they vote no. It might mean that they're out of the eurozone and most growth Greeks are unhappy with the European Union . They're unhappy with the terms of the creditors but they don't want to leave the eurozone much less the European Union. Greece is one of the poorest countries in the EU. So it's a net beneficiary of billions of euro in assistance and grants over the last 10 or 15. And they want to be a part of something and they want to be sort of left out on their on their own which is what would happen. So OK. Which begs the question if they vote no neck then the chance of them leaving the eurozone is what if they vote . No I think the chance the probability rises rises to what. Well it's our 80 90 100 percent well over 50 percent well over 50 percent. OK. That if they vote no. OK. At the negotiations then would fail any ensuing negotiations because the Europeans won't give in. And the Greek government will then have to decide do we leave the Eurozone because they can't pay their creditors. Or do we go back on our knees and accept this deal . I can't see the seat the Syriza Party doing that's a hard left party. It is you know they'd be going back on so much of what they promised the Greek voters. Okay. If they vote yes. Is Angela Merkel much happier. I think she's happier. And I think frankly at boxes in the Greek government the Greek people vote yes they're voting yes to we should accept the bailout plan that the European want to stay in the euro. Exactly right. And how do you think Angela Merkel has played her hand. I think she's been skillful. I think she's been consistent. I think the Greeks have been given a chance after chance to try to climb out of this hole that they're in that they've dug for themselves . She is clearly signal that she wants Greece to stay in the Eurozone and in the European Union. I think there are some others perhaps her Wolfgang Schäuble the finance minister is been more hard nosed about this. But I think she's been a good leader in bringing the European Central Bank the IMF and the EU together in a common position even if something gets cobbled together. Is the damage done already. Well I think the damage is done to the Greek economy. This is a catastrophe for Greece . What has happened to them in the last five years is akin to what's happened happened to the United States in the Great Depression and young people are leaving because they don't see a future the best Greek businesses are going off shore. It's a it's a catastrophe for them it's very tragic it didn't have to happen. I think part of the problem is this is a young government. Most of them have never been in power before. It's hard left. And I think they felt they could leverage and intimidate the European Union and it didn't work well. Young inexperienced would you call them very inexperienced. None of the current ministers including the prime minister have held a senior position in government. Right. And and because they're so ideologically bound. Many of them are former anarchist former communists there outside the mainstream. They've done battle with the European Union from the very beginning in their first week in office. They alienated the German government and the American government. So they just didn't play this in a sophisticated or effective way. So should the U.S. be doing anything more than what they are. I think President Obama has to be careful. We're obviously not part of the European Union right. Merkel is of course a very close partner of the United States. We don't want to get in her way. But the U.S. has clearly signaled that it believes that the situation be better off if the Greece Greek state in the eurozone. And that would mean accepting the bailout proposal. You know we we had Mario Gabelli lead Cooper in to two big investing minds on a few days ago both of them said they're not concerned about what's going on in Greece economically right. I mean it's it's a minuscule part of the European economy and by that matter of the global economy. So if that's the case then it kind of begs the question why are we so locked on this on this drama. Or is it really that small. And we'll be discussing this here in Aspen tomorrow. Larry Summers and I are going to be interviewed on the Greek crisis. I'm not an economist but I'd say the risk here is is the following. The EU has built into its future projections the Greece the Greeks leaving they think they can contain it. But do we really know that markets don't always operate in a rational way and so I think there is a small possibility that this could be disruptive globally but it seems that the stock markets have rebounded. Yes. And I think that Greece is not just under 3 percent of all the GDP of the European Union. So it's a very small part of it but since it's virgin territory that no one's ever left the Eurozone before . There hasn't been this kind of a crisis. I think it's that element of uncertainty that has people worried. It does have people worried. So should what should European leaders do at this point know should they have some contingency plans right now. I mean let's you know let's get real. Right. Well they've said that they do have contingency plans. I think what they've got to do is stick to their guns and hold the position that they're willing to help Greece. But on terms that are rational and sensible and so I think continuing to be calm not try to drive the Greeks out but give the Greeks an opportunity to come back if there's a Yes vote this Sunday the Greek government has to come back and accept the plan offered by the creditors. And before we go is there an opportunity here for some rival countries. You know we've heard Putin make some comments about Russia you know about Russia coming to the aid . We don't know how seriously to take that. I don't think China or others you know is there is this going to shift the power dynamics around the world or not. I don't think so. The Chinese are too sophisticated to get them to try to harness the European Union and the Russians don't have the economic power to do it they have their own economic problems at home this is theater created by the Greek government they wanted to feint toward Moscow to make the European Union think they had a different alternative they don't. Not with Russia's ailing economy. A Greek drama in action writer lives real time . Exactly. All right. Ambassador thank you so much. Great to have you. Former Ambassador Nick Burns .