The Conservatives have retained a modest lead over the Liberals, but they remain in minority-government territory in terms of voter support, a new poll suggests.

According to the latest results from EKOS, released exclusively to CBC News, 33.7 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Tories if an election were held today, up from 33.3 per cent two weeks ago.

The Liberals remain under the 30-per-cent threshold, with 29.2 per cent of respondents saying they'd vote for Michael Ignatieff's party, which is up two points from 27.1 per cent two weeks ago.

The EKOS analysis said the results give the Liberals "little seasonal cheer," but the party could take some "mild comfort" in that they are faring relatively better than at the same time last year, when they trailed Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives by more than nine points.

"Despite talks of a possible Conservative majority, the results suggest that the current trend to minority governments is not about to change," EKOS said in its report Thursday.

The NDP again saw its support level decline, slipping more than two points from two weeks ago to 14.4 per cent, while 10.4 per cent of respondents said they'd back the Greens and 9.8 per cent backing the Bloc Québécois, according to the pollster.

The random telephone survey of 2,574 Canadians aged 18 and over was conducted Dec. 1-7 and is said to carry a margin of error of plus or minus 1.94 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The pollster cited the low number of respondents, just 39.9 per cent, who felt the government was headed in the right direction as a sign of how elusive a Conservative majority remains, since directional satisfaction often indicates future movement in the political landscape.

Greens near majority if only under-25s voted

Regionally, EKOS said the Conservatives and Liberals are deadlocked in a statistical tie in Ontario, including the Greater Toronto, which the pollster declared "will be the key battleground in the next election."

The Conservatives have said they hoped former Ontario Police Commissioner Julian Fantino's byelection win in Vaughan last week would prove to be a gateway into the Liberals' GTA stronghold. Ignatieff has predicted his party will win back the riding, which was held by the Liberals since 1988 and left vacant by Liberal Maurizio Bevilacqua, who stepped down to run for and win the mayor's job in Vaughan.

According to the pollster, the Green Party now holds a significant lead among young people and would be close to the range of a majority government — if voting were limited to those under 25. If only seniors voted, the party wouldn't get a single MP elected, the poll suggested.

The pollster noted the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided by groups such as region, age, sex and education.

In a separate survey conducted Dec 3-7, more respondents, 36.9 per cent, chose social issues like health and education as the most important election issue, compared with 32.7 per cent who answered the economy, jobs and growth should be the most important.

That poll surveyed 1,356 Canadians selected at random, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.66 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.