This Sunday we as Carolina Panthers fans will be sitting at home not watching our frustraingly favorite team play in the Super Bowl. Instead, we will watch Patrick Mahomes, the No. 10 pick in the 2017 draft, take the Kansas City Chiefs to into the big game as favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy. Knowing Mahomes was drafted at No. 10 makes us as Panthers fans salivate at the prospects of what Carolina will do with the No. 7 pick in the upcoming draft. One player can alter a franchise’s destiny for the next decade-plus, and these players are normally found early in the first round.

Or are they?

I decided to play around with data from Football Reference to see how much value the No. 7 pick has generated in recent drafts when compared to other spots in the first round. I broke the draft into four segments:

In order to give the players time to establish themselves in the NFL I decided to look at players who were drafted between the years 2010 and 2016. This strikes a fair balance between assessing established players with at least four years of NFL experience (2016) but keeping the time frame tight enough to reflect modern draft trends (2010). By looking at three players in each segment of the draft (e.g. Picks 1-3) over seven drafts (2010-2016) there are 21 players in each segment.

Here are the statistical categories used to evaluate the overall value of the 21 players in each segment of the draft. You can see the full nerdy spreadsheet with all of the data here:

All-Pro Players: Number of players to earn All-Pro honors at least one time.

Number of players to earn All-Pro honors at least one time. Multiple All-Pros: Number of players to earn All-Pro honors more than one time.

Number of players to earn All-Pro honors more than one time. Pro Bowl Players: Number of players to make at least one Pro Bowl.

Number of players to make at least one Pro Bowl. Multiple Pro Bowls: Number of players to make more than one Pro Bowl.

Number of players to make more than one Pro Bowl. Games: Total games played by the 21 players.

Total games played by the 21 players. Starts: Total games started by the 21 players.

Total games started by the 21 players. Approximate Value: Football Reference’s estimate of the total value derived from the 21 players.

NFL draft 2010-2016 Picks All-Pro Players Multiple All Pros Pro Bowl Players Multiple Pro Bowls Games Starts Appx. Value Picks All-Pro Players Multiple All Pros Pro Bowl Players Multiple Pro Bowls Games Starts Appx. Value 1-3 5 2 13 9 1742 1582 1004 6-8 5 1 11 4 1659 1389 749 16-18 4 3 10 7 1752 1554 791 26-28 1 1 5 3 1685 1218 587

Picks No. 1-3

Based on recent draft history, players drafted between No. 1 and No. 3 have been the best performers among the groups we’re looking at. The first three picks are tied for the most All-Pros (five) and lead the other segments in Pro Bowl players (13), multiple time Pro Bowlers (nine), and Approximate Value. This isn’t rocket science. Teams picking in the top three should consistently land Pro Bowl caliber players.

Picks No. 6-8 vs. No. 16-18

This is where it gets interesting. Overall the performance of the players drafted between No. 6-8 (approximating the Panthers No. 7 pick) is essentially equal to or even less than the performance of the players drafted between No. 16-18.

The earlier picks have produced one more All Pro player and one more Pro Bowler than the later picks, but the later picks have yielded more players who have become multiple time All Pros and Pro Bowlers which indicates sustained, franchise-altering impact. Additionally, picks No. 16-18 have produced more career starts and a higher Approximate Value than picks No. 6-8.

As a frame of reference, here are the multiple time Pro Bowlers from each group:

Things start to peter out by the late first round. The performance of picks No. 26-28 is noticeably lagging that of the early- to mid-first round picks.

What this all means

So, is it better for the Panthers to have the No. 7 pick than the No. 17 pick, for example? Of course it is! The higher Carolina’s pick, the more likely it will be they land the player they feel will make the biggest impact on the team.

The lesson we can take from this as fans is just because Carolina has the No. 7 pick we aren’t entitled to landing a franchise-altering superstar. We’ve perhaps been a bit spoiled in recent years by watching the Panthers nab Christian McCaffrey at No. 8 and Luke Kuechly at No. 9. Remember, of the 21 players drafted between No. 6-8 from 2010-2016, only four of them (19 percent) have made multiple Pro Bowls. Christian and Luke are the exception, not the rule.

Let’s also remember as fans that there really isn’t much of a difference in players with “early first round grades” compared to those with “mid-first round grades.” Recent history has taught us that players taken in the middle of the first round can even outperform those taken much earlier.

I’ve said this before and I’ll continue to preach it: The draft is educated guesswork! A GM who would mess up the No. 17 pick would also mess up the No. 7 pick if given the opportunity.

The Panthers will have their choice of players at No. 7. Let’s hope Marty Hurney & Co. don’t mess this one up.