Decline in durable goods makes the Fed's decision uncertain

Today at 08:30 h published U.S. data on durable goods orders are another setback for the speculation about a reduction of bond purchases by the Fed. Although the forecasts already indicated a decline in the general-durable goods to -4.0%, the actual result of -7.3% significantly undercutu the forecasts. Since the figures for the general durable goods but also the numbers of the aircraft industry are included, which can always have a high volatility, a high deviation from the forecast is not uncommon.

But the numbers make a clear statement to the core commodities. Here, an increase of 0.5% in the forecast, after a rise of 0.1% in the previous month, was expected. The now published decrease of -0.6% is a significant damper in view of the development of the U.S. economy. The USD was declined after the release, the pair EUR/USD rose to the day's high of 1.3394 and the GBP/USD with 1.5612 showed its highest level today. Against the JPY also showed a decline and fell on the day's low of 98.28.

Support the dollar received by the performance index of the Dallas Fed at 10:30 h, the forecasts saw a decrease of 0.5 points, but about 0.6 points increased. Even the six-month TBbill auction and the three-month Treasury bills were of 0.065% and 0.040%, a positive result.

Based on the latest published figures, the USD could offset some of its losses and recorded partially positive results. Thus, the pair GBP/USD is currently at 1.5570, which is only 0.02% higher than the opening price of 1.5568. The pair EUR/USD is currently playing a fall of 0.09% at a price of 1.3366.

The biggest losses the USD currently shows against the NZD. The pair NZD/USD is currently showing an increase of 0.53% at a price of 0.7848.

Overall the USD may show a balanced result in trading today. If the pending data this week but keep other surprises ready, the belief in tapering by the Fed could be seriously shaken and the USD record a bearish trend.

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