Last month’s was, on any basis, an extraordinary election, unique in recent British political experience and with major political consequence.

The country is deeply divided: between young and old; metropolitan and outside the cities; better off and worse off.

And the country is suffering from the state of its politics. This time last year we were the fastest growing economy in the G7. We are now the slowest. The international investment community is negative on us. The savings rate is at its lowest in 50 years. Incomes are stagnating. The international reputation of Britain is rapidly losing altitude. There is a daily drip of worrying news on Brexit. The Grenfell Tower tragedy sums up for many the sorry condition of our social cohesion.

There is a slightly anarchic feel to our politics intensified by the realisation that the Government is weak and drifting.

There is more followership than leadership.

UK news in pictures Show all 50 1 /50 UK news in pictures UK news in pictures 18 September 2020 A model presents a creation during the Bora Aksu catwalk show at London Fashion Week 2020 Reuters UK news in pictures 17 September 2020 World kickboxing champion Carl Thomas during his attempt to run a marathon while pulling a plane at Elvington Airfield near York. The attempt is raising funds for Ollie's Army Battling Against Battens, an organisation campaigning to raise GBP 250,000 to fund a clinical trial aimed at saving the sight of children with CNL2 Batten Disease PA UK news in pictures 16 September 2020 Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner speaking during Prime Minister's Questions UK Parliament/AFP/Getty UK news in pictures 15 September 2020 People enjoying the autumn sunshine as they punt along the River Cam in Cambridge PA UK news in pictures 14 September 2020 Early morning light bathes the skyscrapers of the City of London, at the start of a week in which the UK is expected to bask in temperatures of more than 30 degrees PA UK news in pictures 13 September 2020 England celebrate after they dismissed Australia's Alex Carey to win the second ODI match of the series at Emirates Old Trafford, Manchester PA UK news in pictures 12 September 2020 Protesters outside BBC Broadcasting House in central London, as marches and rallies form across the country calling for a 15% pay rise for NHS workers and an increase in NHS funding PA UK news in pictures 11 September 2020 An empty migrant dinghy floats off the beach at St Margaret's Bay after the occupants landed from France in Dover Getty UK news in pictures 10 September 2020 A view of small boats thought to be used in migrant crossings across the Channel at a storage facility in Dover, Kent PA UK news in pictures 9 September 2020 EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier, left, arriving from the Eurostar with EU Ambassador to the UK, Portuguese diplomat Joao Vale de Almeida at St Pancras International railway station, London, for the latest round of the negotiations on a free trade deal between the EU and the UK PA UK news in pictures 8 September 2020 Dawn over Coquet Island, a small island off Amble on the Northumberland coast PA UK news in pictures 7 September 2020 A hovercraft arrives to Southsea, Hampshire from the Isle of Wight PA UK news in pictures 6 September 2020 Forensics officers near the scene of multiple reported stabbings in Birmingham Reuters UK news in pictures 5 September 2020 Anti-migrant protesters demonstrate in Dover against immigration and the journeys made by refugees crossing the Channel to Kent PA UK news in pictures 4 September 2020 Activists take part in a demonstration against the HS2 hi-speed rail line outside the Department of Transport AFP via Getty UK news in pictures 3 September 2020 Peter Baker, who plays Trigger in the musical version of Only Fools and Horses, sweeps the stage of the Theatre Royal Haymarket in London, after observing a 15 minute silence to show solidarity with those in the theatre industry that have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic PA UK news in pictures 2 September 2020 Kadie Lane, right, 11, and Brooke Howourth, 11, hug on their walk to Marden Bridge Middle School in Whitley Bay, Tyne and Wear, for their first day of term, as schools in England reopen to pupils following the coronavirus lockdown PA UK news in pictures 1 September 2020 Extinction Rebellion protesters sitting outside The Houses of Parliament in Westminster, London PA UK news in pictures 31 August Surfers at Long Sands Beach, Tynemouth PA UK news in pictures 30 August Black Lives Matter protesters march through Notting Hill in London in the first Million People March EPA UK news in pictures 29 August A protester reacts as she demonstrates against the lockdown and use of face masks, amid the coronavirus disease outbreak, outside Downing Street in London Reuters UK news in pictures 28 August Caribbean soca dancers display their costumes as they promote the first ever digital Notting Hill Carnival, following the cancellation of the normal Carnival festivities due to the continued spread of the coronavirus disease, in London Reuters UK news in pictures 27 August Father and son team Chris and Sam Milford from historic building conservation specialists WallWalkers begin restoration work on the spire of Norwich Cathedral, which stands at over 312ft high. The first known spire was completed in 1297 PA UK news in pictures 26 August Giant waves at Seaham in County Durham, as the bad weather continues PA UK news in pictures 25 August An assistant at the Wallace Monument cleans the case which houses the William Wallace sword in the Hall of Arms room at the monument near Stirling as they prepare to re-open PA UK news in pictures 24 August Restored World War Two landing craft LCT 7074 is transported from from the Naval Base in Portsmouth to its final resting place at the D-Day Story at Southsea PA UK news in pictures 23 August Jenny Nguyen and Tony Cao, from Vietnam, pose for wedding photos on Tower Bridge in London, as it remains closed to vehicles after it was stuck open on Saturday due to a "mechanical fault". The landmark's Twitter account confirmed only pedestrians and cyclists could use it on Sunday morning PA UK news in pictures 22 August England's Zak Crawley hit 267, joining the exclusive Double Hundred club, on day two of the Third Test match against Pakistan at the Ageas Bowl, Southampton PA UK news in pictures 21 August Harri Teale gathers lavender during the annual harvest on the Wolds Way Lavender farm near Malton in North Yorkshire PA UK news in pictures 20 August Parents and a student react after checking GCSE results at Ark Academy in London Reuters UK news in pictures 19 August Tate Modern workers hold a strike outside the gallery in London, to protest the institution's announcement that it would cut more than 300 jobs from its commercial arm, Tate Enterprises PA UK news in pictures 18 August Two rescued brown bear cubs, Mish (left) and Lucy, cool off in a pool after arriving at their new home with the wildlife conservation charity Wildwood Trust in Herne Bay, Kent. The orphaned pair, who have been living in a temporary home in Belgium since they were found abandoned and alone in a snowdrift in the Albanian mountains, will be acclimatised to their new life in the country before moving to a permanent home PA UK news in pictures 17 August A level students celebrate outside the Department for Education in London after it was confirmed that candidates in England will be given grades estimated by their teachers, rather than by an algorithm. The government U-turn comes just days after Education Secretary Gavin Williamson vowed there would be "no U-turn, no change. PA UK news in pictures 16 August Wasp players take a knee as Northampton Saints stand prior to kick-off in their Premiership match at Franklin's Gardens PA UK news in pictures 15 August Piper Colour Sergeant Lil Bahadur Gurung attends the VJ Day National Remembrance event, held at the National Memorial Arboretum in Staffordshire, Britain Reuters UK news in pictures 14 August People including students hold placards on Whitehall outside Downing Street as they protest against the downgrading of A-level results. The government faced criticism after education officials downgraded more than a third of pupils' final grades in a system devised after the coronavirus pandemic led to cancelled exams yes AFP via Getty UK news in pictures 13 August Benita Stipp (centre) and Mimi Ferguson (left) react as students at Norwich School receive their A-Level results PA UK news in pictures 12 August 2020 A train derailment near Stonehaven has left three people dead. Driver Brett McCullough, conductor Donald Dinnie, and a passenger were killed when the 6.38am Aberdeen to Glasgow Queen Street service crashed amid heavy rain and flooding BBC UK news in pictures 11 August 2020 A woman hydrates in the sun after open water swimming at the West Reservoir Centre in north London Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty UK news in pictures 10 August 2020 Prime Minister Boris Johnson takes part in an archery session as he visits Premier Education Summer Camp at Sacred Heart of Mary Girls' in Upminster Reuters UK news in pictures 9 August 2020 People cycle through Cambridge as the heatwave continues in Britain EPA UK news in pictures 8 August 2020 Healthcare workers take part in a protest in London over pay conditions in the NHS Getty UK news in pictures 7 August 2020 Emergency services make their way along the seafront on Bournemouth beach in Dorset on one of the hottest days of the year PA UK news in pictures 6 August 2020 Alison Murphy poses for a picture by husband Peter as she walks through a field of sunflowers in Altrincham, Cheshire PA UK news in pictures 5 August 2020 Pakistan's Abid Ali being bowled by England's Jofra Archer during day one of the First Test match at the Emirates Old Trafford, Manchester PA UK news in pictures 4 August 2020 The 'Timbuktu tumblers' from Kenya perform their balancing act on the Southsea waterfront as Zippos Circus reopens in Portsmouth Rex UK news in pictures 3 August 2020 Pelicans interact with a visitor in St James's Park in London PA UK news in pictures 2 August 2020 Lewis Hamilton drives with a puncture towards the finish line to win the Formula One British Grand Prix at Silverstone POOL/AFP via Getty UK news in pictures 1 August 2020 Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang celebrates with the trophy and teammates after winning the FA Cup, as play resumes behind closed doors following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease Pool via Reuters UK news in pictures 31 July 2020 People enjoy the sunny weather at a Bournemouth Beach Reuters

We feel like a country which has lost its footing and is stumbling; but seemingly with no choice but to stagger on.

This is where everything has changed and nothing has changed.

The election result should enable a fundamental reappraisal of Brexit. Large numbers of people voted to stop a hard Brexit and rejected explicitly the mandate Theresa May was demanding.

Instead, both main parties remain wedded to leaving the single market.

Now we argue over long transitional periods, and complicated methods of re-creating new regulatory mechanisms with Europe, which essentially mean we will have to keep close to European regulation, when all such things do, is re-emphasise the inherent dangers of the whole venture.

I agree that if the will of the British people remains as it was in June of last year, then Brexit will happen.

But, to state what in a less surreal world would be blindingly obvious, it is possible that, as we know more about what Brexit means, our “will” changes.

Our leaders should at least lead a proper debate about the options before us.

Michel Barnier encourages the UK to make haste in the Brexit negotiations

They should become the nation’s educators, engaging us, explaining to us, laying out every alternative and what it means.

Rational consideration of the options would sensibly include the option of negotiating for Britain to stay within a Europe itself prepared to reform and meet us halfway.

The Macron victory changes the political dynamics of Europe. The members of the eurozone will integrate economic decision-making. Inevitably, therefore, Europe will comprise an inner and outer circle. Reform is now on Europe’s agenda. The European leaders, certainly from my discussions, are willing to consider changes to accommodate Britain, including around freedom of movement.

Yet this option is excluded.

In the week before the election, my Institute along with Luntz Global Partners, conducted a poll in France, Germany and the UK around attitudes to Europe, Brexit and politics.

The British people’s attitude to Europe is ambivalent.

They do think “Brexit means Brexit” and for now there is no groundswell for a second referendum.

But they want a strong relationship with Europe. A majority oppose hard Brexit. The opposition to free movement of people, once you break it down, is much more nuanced. The French and Germans share some of the British worries, notably around immigration, and would compromise on freedom of movement.

There is no evidence that Britain wants to pay a high economic price for Brexit.

A majority would probably coalesce around a “soft Brexit”.

However, the problem is that the difference between a hard and a soft Brexit has a very simple starting point: membership of the single market and customs union. If we stay within those rules of trade, where over 50 per cent of our exports go, then the economic damage of Brexit will be limited.

But we will have to abide by the rules.

The political difficulties of this are evident. It would lead in short order to a scratching of the British collective head and feeling of, “Well, in that case, what’s the point of leaving?”

On the other hand, if we do leave the single market and customs union, then it is also clear that the economic damage is potentially large. No one who has seriously examined these issues believes that a third-country free trade agreement is remotely a substitute for membership of the single market.

A “jobs first” Brexit outside the single market is a contradiction in terms.

So when people blithely say, “We will get roughly the same terms as we do now with the single market”, I literally know no one in the European system who believes this.

We have overestimated, as ever, the weakness of Europe. Growth rates are recovering. Politics is stabilising. Yes many clouds remain – from Italian and Spanish banks to popular anger at cuts, low pay and immigration concerns. Europe is not out of the woods. But it thinks it sees a path out of those woods and our poll shows that French and Germans see Europe as a guide not an obstacle.

The 27 will basically stick together in defending the rules of the single market.

But we are all learning, as we proceed, the damage Brexit will do.

Europe knows it will be poorer and less powerful without us.

We know our currency is down around 12 per cent; already jobs are going; there is not £350m a week more for the NHS; and we actually need most of the migrants who come to work in the UK.

On any basis, leaving is complex and will take years.

Brexit is the biggest political decision since the Second World War.

Given what is at stake and what, daily, we are discovering about the costs of Brexit, how can it be right deliberately to take off the table the option of compromise between Britain and Europe so that Britain stays within a reformed Europe?

We are doing so because the Tories fear that if Brexit in some form does not happen, they will reopen the fissure within their party.

For three decades this internal Conservative battle has wreaked havoc with the politics of the country rather as Empire Tariff debates did in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Meanwhile the true challenges of the country are unaddressed.

The legislative programme is dominated by Brexit to the virtual exclusion of anything else.

The Government may ask for new ideas from all sides of politics but the reality is it has no bandwidth seriously to do anything other than Brexit.

It is not too late for the country to grip its own destiny, change the terms of the Brexit debate and turn its attention to the true challenges the nation faces.

This is where what happens to the Labour Party matters so much.

The ambiguity of Labour’s position on Europe may have helped us access both Remain and Leave votes, though I am dubious.

However, it can’t last. If Labour continues to be for leaving the single market, and the signs are that it will, then we are essentially for the same policy as the Government.

This will become apparent to those who voted Remain. But more than that, it puts us in the same damaging position for the economy as the Tories; and in circumstances where we are also trying to end austerity through spending programmes which, to be clear, are larger than any Labour Party has ever proposed.

I agree Labour had a remarkable result which I did not foresee. I pay tribute to Jeremy Corbyn’s temperament in the campaign, to the campaign’s mobilisation of younger voters and to the enthusiasm it generated.

His supporters shouldn’t exaggerate it; but his critics, including me, shouldn’t understate it. He tapped into something real and powerful, as Bernie Sanders has in the US and left groups have done all over Europe.

There is a genuine and widespread desire for change and for the politics of social justice.

This should alter the context in which we debate politics, and help influence the policy solutions.

But it doesn’t alter the judgement about the risks of an unchanged Corbyn programme, if he became prime minister and tried to implement it at the same time as Brexit.

If a right-wing populist punch in the form of Brexit was followed by a left-wing populist punch in the form of unreconstructed hard-left economics, Britain would hit the canvas, flat on our back and be out for a long count.

The conventional wisdom is that the centre ground in British politics is now marginalised.

It is true that the country didn’t vote for centrist politics on 8 June; but neither was it on offer.

The space for the centre may seem smaller; but the need for it is ever bigger.

Vince Cable: 'I'm beginning to think Brexit may never happen'

The poll shows that a majority in all three countries still identify most with the centre of politics; and that the policies people want are those which produce real change but from basically a centrist position.

Both parties now face a fundamental choice of direction. The Tories could go back to the direction of David Cameron in the style of Ruth Davidson. Or they could stick with the politics of the last year, defined by Brexit and immigration.

Labour’s leadership could champion a position on Europe radically distinct from the Tories and reach out to those in the Parliamentary Labour Party with experience of government to craft a programme of credibility as well as change.

Or they could dismiss the need for compromise and double down in their efforts to make their takeover of the Labour Party complete.

The Labour Party should be cautious in thinking “one more heave” will deliver victory next time.

The Corbyn campaign was a positive factor in the election result; but the determining factor was the Tory campaign.

In all the elections since 1979, the result at the end was more or less what I expected at the beginning.

Not this time. There is no doubt in my mind that at the beginning of the campaign the public were indeed about to give the Tories a landslide. After all, we had just had a really poor local election result, a normally reliable predictor.

What happened is a perfect illustration of why the Greeks were right that hubris is always followed by nemesis.

In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions Show all 12 1 /12 In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions European commission member in charge of Brexit negotiations with Britain, French Michel Barnier listens at the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg Getty Images In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions Frank-Walter Steinmeier, President of the Federal Republic of Germany, delivers his speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg EPA In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt, President of the Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), addresses the European Parliament during a debate on Brexit priorities and the upcomming talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU Reuters In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions Michel Barnier, European Chief Negotiator for Brexit reacts during a meeting at the European Parliament in Strasbourg EPA In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions Member of the European Parliament and former leader of the anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) Nigel Farage wears socks with Union Jack flag at the European Parliament in Strasbourg Getty Images In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions Nigel Farage, United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) member and MEP, addresses the European Parliament during a debate on Brexit priorities and the upcoming talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU Reuters In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions European commission member in charge of Brexit negotiations with Britain, French Michel Barnier gestures during speeches at the European Parliament in Strasbourg Getty In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions The President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker (L) speaks with European commission member in charge of Brexit negotiations with Britain, French Michel Barnier at the European Parliament in Strasbourg Getty In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt, President of the Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), addresses the European Parliament during a debate on Brexit priorities and the upcomming talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU Reuters In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions Member of the European Parliament and former leader of the anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) Nigel Farage gestures during speeches at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, on April 5, 2017. The European Parliament will on April 5 lay down its "red lines" for negotiations over a Brexit deal, on which the assembly will have the final say in two years' time. / AFP PHOTO / Sebastien BozonSEBASTIEN BOZON/AFP/Getty Images Getty In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier delivers a speech during a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg Getty In pictures: European parliament Brexit discussions The European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France Getty Images

Their error was less in calling the election than in the conduct of it.

The winning strategy was the one they started with: Theresa May is a leader above party, asking for a strong negotiating hand to get the best Brexit deal.

But instead of keeping to it, they shattered it.

Brexit policy turned into hard Brexit or “no deal” Brexit, rather than the “best deal for Britain”. The manifesto was not above party but absolutely of the Tory party: austerity, typical tough Tory policy on social care and school meals, plus fox hunting.

The public recoiled.

The 16 million who voted Remain realised they had to vote to defeat the Brexit mandate she was seeking. Anyone who cared about the public realm, and wished for an end to or an amelioration of austerity, understood this was their only opportunity to register that wish.

Not foreseeable; but on reflection completely explicable.

The Labour electoral performance was unexpected. But that is exactly why we have to be careful in interpreting it. Victories in Kensington and Canterbury were amazing. But losses in Middlesbrough and Stoke were equally alarming.

The Corbyn enthusiasm, especially amongst the young, is real, but I would hesitate before saying that all those who voted Labour voted to make him Prime Minister; or that they supported the body of the programme rather than its tone.

I think they thought that the likelihood was that the Tories would be the government, but were determined to neuter the mandate.

This is why you could have – another unique dimension to the election – candidates standing for Labour overtly distancing from Jeremy Corbyn and yet still being elected, some with big majorities.

The common refrain among some Labour MPs is the policies were popular and if we retain them and unite we will win next time.

We should beware our own form of hubris.

The Tories are not going to run another campaign like that one.

Next time, Labour’s economic programme will come under vastly greater scrutiny. No one is going to believe that there is not a real possibility of Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister. The campaign mishaps which happened every time the spending figures were put under the spotlight won’t pass so easily.

Understandably, some Labour MPs who, only weeks ago, thought their best hope of salvation rested on disassociation from the Leader, now feel disoriented.

But policies which were wrong in May didn’t suddenly become right in June.

Many in this election voted with profound reluctance. There were an unusual number of voters making up their mind very late.

Ultimately neither party won a majority.

It is true that politics has changed dramatically from 10 years ago.

Our poll shows people want change and by large numbers and in all three countries. Years of austerity and an acute sense of an elite separated from the rest has led to a belief that the promise of generational progress has ended. This generation believes it has done better than the last. But it does not believe the next generation will do better than them.

That is the market of anxiety in which the populists peddle quack solutions.

But the poll also shows that support for the centre stays strong. People will default to populism when a radical centre is not on offer; where it is, they will vote it in, as Macron has shown.

Tony Blair hopes Brexit doesn't impair Good Friday Agreement

I am not advocating a new party. Quite apart from the desirability of such a thing, our political system puts formidable barriers in its path.

In any event, as a member of the Labour Party of over 40 years standing, I want the Labour Party to capture this ground.

But there are millions of politically homeless in Britain. They are not going to wander the byways of politics, bedding down uncomfortably, forever, not with their country in the dire shape it is in.

The challenge for the centre is to be the place of changing the status quo, not managing it.

If it does, it still beats everything else.

What the progressive centre lacks is a radical policy agenda. This is the most immediate task and the one to which my new institute is devoted.

One of the most dispiriting aspects of the election campaign was the absence of serious debate about the real challenges Britain faces.

AI, automation and Big Data will usher in a new workplace revolution. The NHS, our school and skills system, “early years” education, welfare and retirement need to be redesigned fundamentally to take account of technology, scientific development, and changing demographics and lifestyle.

Communities and people left behind by globalisation need to be helped by specific measures which connect them to the mainstream economy.

The infrastructure of Britain has to be built anew to link up the regions of the country and take advantage of our assets – geography, history, language and a culture which, despite everything, the world still admires.

We need an ambitious affordable housing programme.

Austerity should end; but its ending should place an even greater responsibility on the Government to seek solutions which change systems and not just pump money into them.

Britain has to escape the cul de sac of backward-looking pessimism with a programme of national renaissance, drawing on the best and most creative minds, to produce the new thinking which can shape our future; and can re-kindle optimism.

This is why Brexit matters so much. It is not merely damaging in itself; it is a massive distraction. While other countries are moving down the fast lane of progress, we are stuck on the hard shoulder of nostalgia.

In this time of accelerating change, we are offered two different types of conservativism, one of the right and one of the left.

Last month’s election was fought like one from the 1980s, but with two competing visions of the 1960s.

Neither answers the call of the future.

Politics today are volatile and unpredictable. In these times, best hold to what you believe.

The centre may appear marginalised; but in the hearts and minds of many, it simply needs to be renewed.

Brexit makes this renewal urgent.