India’s GDP growth during the fiscal 2019-20 is expected at 5% as compared to 6.8% in year-ago period, according to the first advance estimates released by Statistics Ministry on Tuesday.

Estimated growth of real Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2019-20 is 4.9% as against 6.6% in 2018-19. The manufacturing sector is expected to grow at 2% in 2019-20 as compared to 6.9% in the previous year.

The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2019-20 is likely to attain a level of ₹96,563 as compared to ₹92,565 for the year 2018-19. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 4.3% during 2019-20, as against 5.6% in the previous year.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at ₹57.42 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against ₹55.70 lakh crore in 2018-19.

Agriculture sector is expected to see a growth of 2.8% as compared to 2.9% in the previous year.

The release of second advance estimates of quarterly GDP estimate for the third quarter (October-December) 2019-20 will be on 28 February.

The estimates are based on the growth numbers of the first two quarters of the current fiscal as well as other higher frequency data.

Economic growth slowed to over a six-year low of 5% in the first quarter and to 4.5% in the second quarter.

The Reserve Bank of India in its December policy had revised GDP growth downwards to 5% for 2019-20 from 6.1% in its October policy.

GDP growth stood at 4.8% for the first half of the current fiscal year. India needs to grow at around 8% a year to create enough jobs for the millions of young people joining the labour force each year.

The data is typically released one month ahead of the presentation of the Union budget.

The advance estimates are compiled using the Benchmark-Indicator method where sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolation of indicators like the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in the first seven months of the fiscal, financial performance of the listed private companies up to the quarter ending September, the first advance estimates of crop production, accounts of Central and state governments, indicators of deposits of credits, passenger and freight earnings of the railways, civil aviation and ports, and sales of commercial vehicles, among others, available for the first eight months of the fiscal.

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