The final frame of June is set for the release of two new entries as Disney/Pixar’s reigning Toy Story 4 looks to repeat atop the box office in its second outing. Our weekend outlook:

PROS:

Fresh off a franchise-record $120.9 million debut, Toy Story 4 is enjoying strong early word of mouth and faces no direct competition in its second weekend. While last year’s Incredibles 2 dropped 56 percent in its second frame last year against Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom‘s debut, a drop closer to Finding Dory‘s 46 percent in 2016 and Toy Story 3‘s 46.2 percent in 2010 could be expected since those films came off slightly inflated Father’s Day weekend debuts.

Annabelle Comes Home will benefit from the young adult crowd and fan appeal of the Conjuring universe, which recently propelled The Nun to a $53.8 first weekend back in September. Goodwill from 2017’s Annabelle: Creation should also aid upfront earnings, as well as the spin-off’s closer ties to the Conjuring films thanks to the return of stars Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson which could effectively help this spin-off/sequel act as the third Conjuring film. The lack of horror breakouts at this box office this summer so far is another positive indicator.

Yesterday will hope to bring out Beatles fans with the promise of another crowd-pleasing dramedy driven by the band’s catalog of some of the most popular music in modern history. Director Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) and screenwriter Richard Curtis (Love, Actually) also lend some advantage with their fan followings.

Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame will expand again into an estimated 1,950 locations as part of what is believed to be Disney’s effort to push its global haul over the top and surpass Avatar‘s $2.788 billion record (Endgame currently stands at $2.751 billion entering Wednesday, June 26), as well as to drum up buzz for next week’s Spider-Man: Far From Home release via Sony. Still, it remains to be seen how much natural demand this expansion (featuring bonus content and deleted scenes) will generate, and/or if Disney will double-bill it with Toy Story 4 and/or Aladdin in the days and weeks ahead — making forecasts quite the guessing game right now. But, it should at least return to the top ten domestically this weekend.

CONS:

Given the recent string of under-performers at the box office in June, there’s fair reason to suspect the trend could carry over with Annabelle Comes Home given that its the sixth film in a franchise (particularly given its modest reviews compared to earlier critics’ reactions in the franchise). Meanwhile, Yesterday‘s social media footprint and general tracking trends unfortunately haven’t lived up to those of recent musically-driven hits like Bohemian Rhapsody and Rocketman.

Weekend Ranges

Toy Story 4 ($55 – 65 million)

Annabelle Comes Home ($37 – 45 million 5-Day)

Yesterday ($7 – 12 million)

Top 10 vs. Last Week

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decline approximately 18 to 23 percent from the same weekend last year, which saw strong holdover business from Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 as Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Uncle Drew opened as part of an overall $167.2 million top ten weekend.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 23 % Change from Last Wknd Toy Story 4 Disney / Pixar $60,800,000 $243,800,000 -50% Annabelle Comes Home Warner Bros. / New Line $27,000,000 $43,700,000 NEW Yesterday Universal $10,000,000 $10,000,000 NEW Aladdin (2019) Disney $9,200,000 $305,800,000 -31% The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal / Illumination $7,600,000 $132,100,000 -26% Men In Black International Sony / Columbia $5,500,000 $63,700,000 -49% Child’s Play (2019) United Artists Releasing $5,200,000 $25,000,000 -63% Rocketman Paramount $3,500,000 $84,000,000 -38% Avengers: Endgame Disney / Marvel $2,900,000+ $838,600,000+ 46% John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum Lionsgate / Summit $2,700,000 $160,900,000 -34%

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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