The Dow Jones Industrial Average just posted the worst first quarter in history. It was also the eighth worst quarter overall:

Besides 1987Q4 and 1974Q3, you have to go back a long time ago to find a worse quarter than we just had. It’s just another example of history unfolding before us in the markets.

Generally, I don’t find arbitrary calendar-based market movements all that interesting (i.e. the worst week/month/start to the year etc. etc. since whenever) but I figured it is likely to be a long time before I will have the chance to write about a quarter this bad again. (Hopefully that isn’t a jinx for 2020Q2!!)

As for the quarter itself, January was relatively benign, even as news about COVID-19 got worse. The first half of February saw a new all-time high. Then, it all came undone. February and March both ended with double digit monthly declines.

At it’s lowest point during the quarter on March 23, the Dow was down -34.2% for the year. Fortunately, there was a significant rally off that bottom and instead of being the third worst quarter ever it only ended up being the eighth. That’s still awful but I suppose in today’s world you got to take whatever small wins you can get.

Since the market is forward looking, I would hope that most of the virus damage has been priced in. But, I wouldn’t underestimate the chance for more things to go wrong or that the virus outbreak ends up worse than expected. In that case, 2020Q2 could be bumpy. Let’s keep our fingers crossed it ends up being a rebound quarter!