However, things will close as we get closer to the election. That will be true even for Blanche Lincoln, but does she have much upward mobility?

PPP

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Blanche Lincoln’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 27%

Disapprove...................................................... 62%

Not Sure.......................................................... 11% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Halter?

Favorable........................................................ 21%

Unfavorable .................................................... 29%

Not Sure.......................................................... 50% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Wesley Clark?

Favorable........................................................ 29%

Unfavorable .................................................... 29%

Not Sure.......................................................... 42%

The short answer is a resounding no. 62% Disapprove of Blanche Lincoln's performance. Note that we are comparing Blanche Lincoln's Approval with the other two's Favorability. Those are two different things, so caution should be taken, but since the other two don't currently have the job, its the closest we can get from this poll.

Wesley Clark is within 15 points of Boozman, showing good numbers. The important point, however, is to look at all three of their numbers against Boozman and you can see what is happening.

First, we must assume that things will change as time moves on. Any Democrat will close this gap with Boozman unless they run a horrible campaign.

Second, look at how Boozman's numbers go down when Halter or Clark are matched against him. For Clark, with slightly higher name recognition than Halter, he brings him down to 51%. For Halter he brings him down to 53%. Getting Boozman under 50% is the first step to winning this thing. Both Halter and Clark have a pretty good shot at doing this. Lincoln has him at 56%, with high name recognition. He isn't going to move much from there with her as the opponent.

So, who has the ability for the most upward movement? It is all about the Undecideds and the "Not Sure" vote. Lincoln has almost nowhere to go with only 11% "Not Sure" of her approval rating. She is stuck at 27% with little room to grow. She is a known quantity. Clark and Halter have the same Unfavorablity rating at 29%. This means they are likely hitting the floor of the "I don't like Democrats" vote. It is only 29% in reality. Note how the 8% of Arkansans who know Clark (42% Not Sure) and don't know Halter (50% Not Sure) end up giving the Democrat a higher favorability rating Clark (29% favorable). What this may show, is that the more people know about Democratic candidates not named Blanche Lincoln, the more they like them. With so much room to grow, both Halter (50%) and Clark (42%) have a good shot at saving this seat for the Democrats with a good campaign.

The poll tends to concentrate on how Democrats in general are doomed, but I disagree, as will a lot of people in this state. It just doesn't jive with the politics of the state. I think the 29% unfavorability of both Halter and Clark and the 22% unfavorability of Governor Mike Beebe show who are really the anti-any-Democrat voters. They are a small number that likely would vote against Democrats regardless of the political situation. Also notice how this poll only gives Beebe a 59% approval rating while he has above 80% in other polls. Do not read this poll to mean Democrats can't win the Senate seat in November. Read it as, if we have any chance, we need to get a fresh face up against Boozman.

I think those of us trying to Draft Bill Halter need to step it up.

Please help us Draft Bill Halter.

Update:

http://bluearkansasblog.com/...

Rasmussen released another poll today showing Blanche Lincoln loosing to all Republicans by double digits. It is interesting how the usually Republican leaning Rasmussen even has Lincoln fairing better than the PPP poll released today. She loses to Boozman by 19 points instead of 23 points. Also, possibly showing bias in the PPP poll, Beebe gets 73% approval instead of the 59% in the PPP poll. Gilbert Baker does just as well against Lincoln, beating her by 19 points. Other Republicans also beat her, but their leads are closer to 15 points.