Michael Fassbender is my favorite to win. Alas, he has way too many factors working against him! The role of a sadistic plantation honor who prides himself in being a "nigger breaker” and who repeatedly rapes his female slave just doesn’t seem right to be bestowed with an honor, especially given the Academy’s tacit pledge to appear politically correct in the eyes of the world. Another strong contender is Jonah Hill but he too, like Fassbender, seems to be walking on thin ice in this regard. This leaves Barkhad Abdi and Jared Leto as the favorites with the latter having a slight edge. But, it would be remiss of me to overlook Bradley Cooper who, over the last couple of years, has emerged as an Academy favorite.