Bernie has at least two problems now:

1) It’s possible that he can find a way — or Biden can stumble into a way — to shift the momentum of the race again. But can he do it by next Tuesday? There’s no event on the calendar, like a debate, that provides a natural occasion for a change in the conversation. And if there isn’t such a shift, what’s going to stop Biden from winning the biggest delegate-prize of Michigan next week? If the race is close there, presumably it won’t add all that much to Biden’s delegate lead, but a victory will be a huge show of strength for Biden and of weakness for Bernie. Already there is a poll showing Biden ahead. Bernie has to hope taking a sledgehammer to Biden on issues like trade shakes something loose between now and then. (There’s also the possibility of a Warren endorsement, but that probably wouldn’t be as meaningful as the Clyburn, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar endorsements.)


2) Let’s say there is a big shift in the momentum in Bernie’s favor the next couple of weeks. Even if this happens, even if Biden is on his heels and Bernie is newly ascendant, it’s hard to see how Biden still doesn’t stomp in Florida, where 219 delegates are at stake and the latest poll has Biden at 61 percent, beating Bernie by 47 points. Bernie could have a big upswing in the state and still lose by a landslide.