ANALYST URGES CAUTION ANALYST URGES CAUTION BEIJING — Shi Yinhong, a leading Korea-watcher who teaches international relations at People’s University in Beijing, said Friday he welcomed moves toward a concrete agreement but cautioned that Pyongyang’s record of "playing games" means all parties should prepare for disappointment. “It’s probable that there will be agreement in some form that North Korea will freeze part of its nuclear program in exchange for energy assistance, even implicitly, from the United States,” Shi said. “No-one can’t say this isn’t great. In the past three years of negotiations, we have never had such a concrete agreement. But I’m a little confused. How can you interpret North Koreas suddenly being willing to abandon its nuclear program? It’s almost incredible,” Shi said. He advised a cautious welcome to any agreement. “We should be prudent about not reading too much long-term significance into this. Is North Korea really set on a course of denuclearization? At least up to now, I dare not to believe. In the future, we may be disappointed again. North Korea plays such games again and again. The tragic story of the 1994 agreement could be repeated.” On the one hand, Pyongyang wants assistance and a better relationship with the United States, Shi argued, but at the same time the North Koreans’ immediate purpose is to eliminate the U.N. sanctions. Shi credits the recent intensification of bilateral talks between Washington and Pyongyang with improving the climate for agreement. The other four parties to the six-party talks have basically been sidelined, he said. “North Korea and the USA provide the basis to the other four sides of the talks, they can only raise their point of view at the end of this process. Their views are still important, but they have been less involved.” Shi warned that any agreement may only temporarily halt the North Korean nuclear program. Will it represent “a fundamental decision by North Korea to abandon nuclear bombs? I personally don’t believe it. The North Koreans always want to have their cake and eat it.” — Calum MacLeod in Beijing Tentative deal calls for halt in N. Korea nuclear program WASHINGTON  North Korea reached a tentative agreement with five other nations Tuesday on initial steps toward ending its nuclear weapons program, U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill said. The agreement would shut down a program that built and tested a nuclear device and amassed plutonium for as many as a dozen other weapons. Initially, however, that plutonium and any completed nuclear weapons would remain in North Korea. The deal, reached in Beijing by negotiators from North Korea, the United States, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea, requires a final OK by the six governments. Under the agreement's terms, North Korea would shut down a nuclear reactor that has been producing plutonium for four years, according to a senior Bush administration official and an Asian diplomat. Inspectors from the United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency would return to North Korea within 60 days to verify that the reactor has been shuttered, they said. In return, North Korea would get a million tons of fuel oil a year. The two officials, both of whom had been briefed on details of the agreement, declined to be identified because it has not gotten final approval from their governments. After a fifth day of negotiations in Beijing, Hill said the agreement is only a first step toward the ultimate goal of dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program. "I'm encouraged that we might be able to make a real step forward on the denuclearization issue," he said. North Korean diplomats made no immediate comment. The parties resume talks Tuesday in Beijing. Supporters and opponents of the agreement both say it resembles a 1994 accord, known as the Agreed Framework, which traded economic and diplomatic concessions for a freeze of the North Korean nuclear program and a pledge of eventual denuclearization. Under that deal, North Korea received 500,000 tons of fuel oil annually. The 1994 pact collapsed in 2002 when North Korea admitted working to enrich uranium, another potential source of bomb fuel. John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. until December, said on CNN that the agreement is "a very bad deal" that would undercut sanctions against North Korea and make the administration "look weak ... dealing with Iran (when) it needs to look strong." He said President Bush should reject the deal because it is no better than the 1994 agreement: "If we (are) going to cut this deal now, it's amazing we didn't cut it back then." Jack Pritchard, a former U.S. negotiator with the North Koreans in both the Clinton and Bush administrations, said the latest deal initially leaves North Korea "a declared nuclear-weapon state with a stock of plutonium for more." James Kelly, assistant secretary of State for Asia in Bush's first term, said he was optimistic. "It's a mistake to prematurely trash" the agreement, Kelly said. "It's not a triumph yet. It's a first step." David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington think tank, said North Korea has produced enough plutonium for as many as 12 bombs. It tested a nuclear device for the first time in October. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, left, speaks to reporters in Beijing, China, on Monday.



By Elizabeth Dalziel, AP