Geelong's pursuit of Dangerfield is as transparent as Malcolm Turnbull's designs on the Lodge. The move has been in the wind for a long time. If it doesn't happen, it will not be for want of preparation, planning or ambition. While Cameron Ling is referred to as "the mayor of Geelong," Dangerfield is engaged to the daughter of the former mayor of Greater Geelong, Bruce Harwood, who remains on the city council. The Dangerfield family live on the Surf Coast at Mogg's Creek. Paddy's mother Janette and aunty Debbie look after the Airey's Inlet palazzo of the region's most influential businessman and Geelong's seminal modern president, Frank Costa. Costa knows the Dangerfields well. Family members have been guests of the club at home games and, of course, Paddy played for the Falcons prior to his drafting by Adelaide in 2007. The homeward pull will be as powerful as the undertow at Fairhaven. Geelong, who failed to land another ex-local and Adelaide-based superstar in Travis Boak, has made hypothetical room for Dangerfield in its projected salary cap for 2016 and beyond. If the Cats get him, Dangerfield will not be cheap.

He won't be coming for less than $800,000 a year on a long-term deal; one Victorian club's list manager estimated Dangerfield's price in the $850,000-$1 million range. Doubtless, a desperate and dateless club in Melbourne would part with $1.2 million a season or more. If he chooses to stick with the Crows, my guess is that he would average close to seven figures. For Geelong, the Dangerfield pursuit is complicated by the imminent signing of its own highly valued free agent, Tom Hawkins, and the fact that skipper Joel Selwood is among the game's absolute elite. The Cats, though, have done their sums and reckon they can manage to accommodate this prospective Trinity without exploding their cap. When Boyd, a nine-game teenager, signed his $6 million-plus, six-year contract with the Dogs (plus this year's award rates for a 2013 draftee), the question was posed of whether there would be any flow-on effects for Hawkins, a proven powerhouse key forward who was in his prime and a restricted free agent. Fortunately for the Cats, Hawkins is a son of the club with no desire to leave. The expectation is that he will be re-contracted on a long-term deal, perhaps as many as five years. Geelong, from what we hear, are happy to give Hawkins security and length of tenure, in the knowledge that they cannot pay him what half the 18 clubs would scrounge for one of the AFL's premier power forwards.

For the Cats, "getting Danger" would also constitute something of a policy shift. In those premiership and grand final years of 2007-11, the Cats deployed a payments scheme in which there were many players paid over the average, but very few - actually none - were paid over $600,000. The A-graders were bunched in a tight band between, say, $370,000 and $600,000. Remarkably, Gary Ablett never earned more than the latter figure with the Cats. Today, Selwood is understood to be paid close to $800,000 and is contracted until 2017. Ablett aside, he's the equal of any midfielder in the game. Logically, a Dangerfield deal cannot surpass Selwood's salary by much, if at all. Hawkins and Selwood, incidentally, have the same manager, Tom Petroro, while Dangerfield is handled by Paul Connors, who rarely fails to get clients to their desired destination. So, in the event that they persuade Dangerfield to head back to his family, the Cats will have three players soaking up probably a minimum of $2.5 million from 2016. While inflation means that $900,000 soon will become the equivalent to $750,000 in 2015 dollars, the notion that three players could be elevated on a payments podium (well above the rest) shows how the Cats have been forced to bend with the winds blown by free agency. In this new market, the very best players take a larger slice.

Geelong's capacity to pay Dangerfield - and Hawkins - has been assisted by Christensen's hasty exit, which was entirely his own doing, plus the offloading to Collingwood of Travis Varcoe. The club also has a slew of distinguished, well-remunerated senior citizens - Corey Enright, Jimmy Bartel, Steve Johnson, James Kelly, Tom Lonergan - who will be shuffling off in the next couple of years. Since the Cats mightn't be in a position to offer more than Adelaide, we cannot discount the possibility that the Crows will match any Geelong offer, forcing the Cats to trade for Dangerfield. This would be unprecedented - no club has yet matched an offer for a restricted free agent. Some clubs would rather pay a premium for a gun free agent and avoid giving up draft picks or players. Crows paid Eddie Betts "overs" to take him from Carlton, Essendon gave Brendon Goddard more than the Saints would wear, ditto for Dale Thomas with Carlton and Collingwood. Dangerfield will be a different story if he joins Geelong, because he would be leaving for his family's sake. Costa anticipated that Melbourne clubs would offer Dangerfield more money than the Cats, but felt that if Dangerfield did leave, he would still pick Geelong. In the former president's mind, the Cats were slight favourites in a head-to-head contest with the Crows, due to "the pull of family on both sides". Costa added, "but I've got nothing other than gut feeling to say that". Dangerfield is a partner in pubs with teammates Taylor Walker and Rory Sloane and Adelaide's football powerbroker, Mark Ricciuto. He has never expressed dissatisfaction with Adelaide, the city, nor the club.

The Dangerfield decision, like Buddy's and the deliberations of baskeball mega-star LeBron James, will be a central, compelling story. An important one for the clubs involved, potentially another watershed moment for the competition. But, whatever "Danger" does, it won't be an October surprise.