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Ontario, the most important political battleground in the federal election, could be shaping into a tight fight primarily between the Conservatives and Liberals, a new poll for Postmedia suggests.

The survey by Mainstreet Research finds Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are running first, with the support of 38 per cent of voters who have made up their mind or are leaning toward one party.

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The Liberals under Justin Trudeau are just four points behind, with 34 per cent of the decided and leaning vote.

Tom Mulcair’s NDP is well behind, at 22 per cent of the decided and leaning vote.

Election results in the province, with 121 of 338 seats in the next Parliament, could determine the outcome of the Oct. 19 election.

“These results may signal a break in the three-way stalemate that has dominated the vast majority of the campaign,” said Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi.

Maggi said the NDP may be losing support because some voters are unhappy with its strategy to move from the left to more centrist positions on issues such as a balanced budget.