Essentials

WHAT Ohio State at Michigan WHERE Michigan Stadium

Ann Arbor, MI WHEN Noon PM Eastern

November 28st, 2015 THE LINE Ohio State -1 TELEVISION ABC TICKETS From $152 PARKING From $20 WEATHER mostly cloudy, around 40, 0% chance of rain

Overview

They came for our families. They came for our principles. They saw our hapless generals and ordered a scorched-earth campaign. I ate tires for six months, and then I pined for the good old days when I had tires to eat. Then I pined for the good old days when I could remember the thing that was supposed to be bad that I ate.

I'm tired of it, and you're tired of it, and Jim Harbaugh just crested the ridge with the Rohirrim. Let's get it.

Run Offense vs Ohio State

Joey Bosa has made an effort to look like every Ohio State fan averaged together

It was bizarre to watch the much-maligned Michigan State offensive line get a grip on their opposition last week and drive the Buckeyes backwards. By the second half of that game OSU was getting blown off the ball on the regular.

In some ways that is reminiscent of Michigan's performance against Indiana—with the OSU offense unable to stay on the field and MSU sustaining 10+ play drives, the talented but thin Buckeye line ran out of gas. Can Michigan replicate that performance?I don't know. This is an improvement from my previous impressions.

OSU's rush defense has been bipolar this season. Minnesota and Illinois collected a total of 55 yards between them, but Big Ten games other than those two haven't gone nearly as well:

Indiana (mostly) minus Jordan Howard: 55 carries, 176 yards, 3.2 YPC

(mostly) minus Jordan Howard: 55 carries, 176 yards, 3.2 YPC Maryland : 42 carries, 253 yards, 6 YPC

: 42 carries, 253 yards, 6 YPC PSU : 40 carries, 195 yards, 4.9 YPC

: 40 carries, 195 yards, 4.9 YPC Rutgers : 29 carries, 104 yards, 3.6 YPC

: 29 carries, 104 yards, 3.6 YPC MSU: 51 carries, 203 yards, 4 YPC

Michigan's mediocre rush offense (51st in S&P) doesn't project to blow up, especially since the main back, De'Veon Smith, is the opposite of a burner. Michigan also does not run the quarterback on purpose much, and both Indiana and Maryland's production was heavily dependent on QBs running a long way. MSU also featured a heavy dose of QB run. That's not an option for M.

OSU runs out one of those MSU-ish 4-3 over, quarters defenses with a LB/S hybrid over the slot. With Penn State running more or less the same defense, all three of Michigan's main division competitors are in the same boat. Michigan has not been able to run against this style of defense all year, but there were differences between PSU and MSU, specifically at safety. PSU is much more conservative with their safeties and gives their LBs pass responsibilities; MSU is in your face and lets their LBs go. OSU is much closer to Penn State.

You can do that when you have talent coming out your ears. Joey Bosa, of course, leads the way:

Nor is Bosa just a pass rusher — he’s equally destructive in run defense, and that’s reflected in his +58.2 overall grade, which leads all edge rushers. … Bosa’s season has been so impressive that we felt he should be seen as a Heisman contender, even though we know that the Heisman is rarely awarded to a defensive player.

Adolphus Washington is a high quality DT in the vein of Maurice Hurst—not huge but in your backfield a lot. The other two DL are fine but don't jump off the page; the linebacker corps is very good. Seth has more details in FFFF.

Expect Michigan to try out those wide receiver screens when OSU aligns so they might work; OSU may be able to shut those down anyway if Darron Lee and Vonn Bell are on point. On the interior they may be able to crease the weaker half of the OSU line and maybe Washington if he gets tired, but consistent production is difficult to see.

When it comes to the actual ground game, I don't know. I can see the left side of Michigan's line winning enough battles to put a tailback in a productive position, but barely, and Michigan's tailbacks have not done well with "barely" this year. Ohio State will try to win with their 7 up front before trying anything special, which should give Michigan some opportunities if they can just match OSU's ability.

The X factor is Jabrill Peppers, who's started lining up as a tailback the last couple weeks. Peppers has shown flashes of the kind of ability he demonstrated in high school…

…and may be able to break a couple things that swing this matchup to a draw. Tough sledding awaits either way.

KEY MATCHUP: JABRILL PEPPERS versus THE SPOOOOKY GHOST OF TOM HARMON.

[Hit THE JUMP for Butt vs Bell, rushing offense, 404 passing O not found, and WHAT ARE THOOOOSE kickers]

Pass Offense vs Ohio State

Vonn Bell versus Jake Butt promises to be this game's version of Burbridge-Lewis

The Ohio State pass defense is an upgraded version of Penn State's, and that's Penn State with Carl Nassib. While Joey Bosa's traditional stats don't jump off the page (just four sacks), he has been every bit the face-crusher that he was last year. PFF consistently lists him amongst the top players in the country; one example:

Compared to his stellar 2014 campaign, Bosa’s sack numbers are down, with just five this season to 13 last year. Yet he is generating far more pressure in 2015, with 60 pressures in 10 games compared to his 2014 total of 75 in 15 games; factoring in pass rush snap counts, that’s a 33 percent increase in pressure rate.

Bosa draws so much attention and creates so much chaos that the DE spot opposite him has flourished with a pair of unheralded underclassmen. Tyquan Lewis and Sam Hubbard have combined for 12 sacks. OSU is fifth in adjusted sack rate. They get to quarterbacks all day every day.

Nassib was supposed to be a dry run for Erik Magnuson and Mason Cole, but he played just two snaps last weekend. Michigan's tackles have not been tested by an elite edge rusher in a while, and when Yannick Ngakoue and Shilique Calhoun went up against the Michigan OL they were able to the to the QB at least somewhat regularly. The outcome of these events may swing the game—is it a fumble or just a sack?

When Michigan is able to get passes off they'll be going up against a high quality secondary, especially at safety. OSU plays quarters, which means those safeties often end up playing man coverage against interior receivers. This means you can expect Vonn Bell to match up with Jake Butt frequently. Bell is a cut above the safeties Butt has been turning around over the course of the season, one of those guys who can plausibly do all the run support stuff a safety is asked to without sacrificing man-to-man coverage ability.

Eli Apple and Gareon Conley are rough equivalents of Lewis and Clark, respectively; Apple's not as good as Lewis but Conley is better than Clark. Apple can run with Chesson, probably, and Conley can bang with Darboh, probably.

Michigan's half of this looks much much better with Jake Rudock coming off three consecutive productive outings. I'll have pass protection worries until the game is over but leaving Smith and AJ Williams will go a long way towards helping against the defensive line; if Michigan WRs can win one on one matchups or Jake Rudock can find the #buttzone where it doesn't matter what the defensive back does they could move the chains in a way that surprises onlookers.

KEY MATCHUP: JAKE RUDOCK versus MY 100% DEAD CERTAINTY THAT HE WILL NEVER COMPLETE A PASS OF 30 OR MORE YARDS what do you mean what about last week LAST WEEK DOESN'T COUNT WHEN IT COMES TO THIS 100% DEAD CERTAINTY.

Run Defense vs Ohio State

Elliott: will get the ball this time

Michigan's defense has been lights out all year year when not facing a future NFL QB or getting punked by lady luck… except against Indiana. Indiana wore down Michigan's defense and found that they had few answers for the zone stretch. Now Michigan faces a similar zone-oriented, spread offense. This one adds a mobile quarterback and a ton of diversity to the unit that blew this defense to bits a couple weeks ago. It will be a challenge.

MSU got an advantage here thanks to the structure of its defense. They were in a 4-3 the whole game, with the LB over the slot receiver increasingly ignoring the idea they might test him to the outside as OSU fans got more and more frustrated with the lack of WR screens. With OSU virtually ignoring the major problem with MSU's defense the LBs were free to fire and the playside safety added himself to the box on any outside run.

It will be difficult for Michigan to match this. They run a nickel. That nickel is not in a gray area. They will bring down a safety into the box, but even that gives you a 7-v-7 matchup since OSU uses the QB so extensively. MSU's structure gave them eight or nine. For Michigan to have similar results they must dominate one-on-one matchups on the defensive line, something they have done all year… except against Indiana.

So it's up to Michigan: ride with what got you here and try to hold up, or go to more of a zone based look in an attempt to replicate what just happened. The bet here is that Michigan enters with the latter in their pocket but tries to go toe to toe, combating zone with the addition of a safety to the end of the LOS and the corresponding blitz.

This could work. OSU has two very good offensive linemen in Taylor Decker and Patrick Elflein, the LT and RG. The other three are just okay, and Michigan has blasted just-okay offensive linemen all year. Maurice Hurst's ability to put Yet Another Boren in the backfield on the regular is a huge key; so too Chris Wormley's ability to do what he's done against all tight ends he's face this year against the hefty Nick Vannett. Even without Glasgow Michigan has a good shot at dominating one or two guys per play, and that's often enough.

So while Ezekiel Elliott is definitely going to get more than two carries in the second half, I think that the QB runs that were much-maligned after the MSU game are where it's at for OSU. Michigan's defense is not particularly well-equipped to defend QB runs, having allowed Travis Wilson and Mitch Leidner a number of chunk plays. JT Barrett isn't Braxton Miller but he's no slouch, and Elliott might have trouble finding room.

I don't expect Michigan to strangle this rushing offense like MSU did but neither do I expect it to put up the kind of grinding consistency that OSU will need to not put a burden on the passing game… a burden that looks dodgy for OSU.

KEY MATCHUP: SAFETIES IN SPACE against JT BARRETT. Barrett's rushing total will tell the tale. Under 50 yards and M probably wins, over 100 and it's getting tough.

Pass Defense vs Ohio State

Michael Thomas will be a challenge deep

This should be a clear advantage for Michigan. Like Penn State, the matchup hinges on whether the opponent can hit anything deep. If the OSU rushing attack forces Michigan to run more zone, then OSU may be able to find holes in it for intermediate gains. But when Michigan is in their base man free, it's hard to see OSU consistently beating the kind of coverage Michigan has thrown out this year. (This is as much on the OSU WRs as Barrett.)

As the season has gone on the passing game has taken on a decreasing share of the OSU offense. Barrett hasn't attempted more than 23 passes in a game; as a team OSU is averaging barely over 20 attempts over their last five. They're averaging a mediocre 7.6 YPA, but S&P still likes them enough to have them 33rd.

We have very little data on what might happen when a Barrett-led OSU passing offense meets a defense like Michigan's. Minnesota, with its three high-quality corners, is the closest, but that was a Cardale Jones game. Jones hit two 45-yard passes against cover zero on which Jalin Marshall and Braxton Miller simply ran past their opposite number and were open by yards. The rest of his attempts averaged under five yards a pop. Michigan will not go cover zero unless desperate and has not had a guy open by that much all year.

We do know that Chase Farris, Ohio State's right tackle, is a sore spot. Farris was responsible for a ton of pressures against the Illini, which set Buckeye twitter a-grumblin'. A large part of the conservative, almost frightened OSU game plan against MSU seems like a desire to avoid the Farris/Calhoun matchup as much as humanly possible. Michigan does not have an elite edge rusher but Farris might be enough of a turnstile that it doesn't matter.

If Michigan is able to stay in their base defense that should erase wide receiver screens and force Barrett to make the kind of downfield throws we've seen Connor Cook and (occasionally) Christian Hackenberg make. OSU does have a downfield weapon™ in Michael Thomas, a strapping 6'3" gentleman who is destined for the top end of the NFL draft despite middling production (47 catches, 659 yards) this year. Thomas will no doubt draw Jourdan Lewis.

Past Thomas it's the maddeningly inconsistent Marshall, a great athlete with iffy hands who makes a lot of mental mistakes, the under-utilized Miller, who you know all about, and very little otherwise. Running backs get a lot of targets, and they'll throw tight end Nick Vannett one or two short passes a game.

OSU's best shot here is to do well enough on the ground that Michigan has to drop man free on standard downs. Otherwise they'll be limited to taking downfield shots down the sideline against Jourdan Lewis.

KEY MATCHUP: TACO CHARLTON and CHRIS WORMLEY against FARRIS. Nobody does well with persons in their face.

Special Teams

Marshall is very dangerous on punt returns. He's averaging almost 13 yards an attempt this year and was at 12 last year. Michigan's done a good job of preventing returns and return yardage this year, but that PR TD Indiana managed lingers in the mind. That's something Marshall is more than capable of. OSU's only attempted 13 KO returns and hasn't done anything of note on them.

Kicking is an issue. Jack Willoughby only has touchbacks on 35% of his kicks and has put 5 out of bounds. Willoughby was 7/11 on field goals with a long of 39 before getting yanked prior to the Illinois game; Sean Nuernberger missed a 24-yarder against the Illini. Ohio State has forgone a lot of makeable field goals for obvious reasons and should be expected to go for it on any reasonable fourth down in plus territory.

Aussie punter Cameron Johnston has been terrific with a 44 yard average, 24 punts inside the 20 to just 6 touchbacks, and 17 kicks over 50 yards. Opponents have a total of 43 punt returns yards on the year. Maybe Peppers can change that but this is a rare situation in which the punting battle leans to the opposition.

You know the deal with Michigan: Jourdan Lewis has deputized for Jabrill Peppers on kickoffs and done excellently; Peppers is a major threat on any returnable punt; Kenny Allen is highly reliable from 40 and in with a decent shot on longer field goals; Blake O'Neill has been very very good; over the past few weeks mistakes have piled up.

KEY MATCHUP: MATE PUT THE BALL THROUGH THE BIG STICKS NO WORRIES

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

Michigan is getting gashed by QB runs in their base defense.

Michigan can't protect Rudock even when they leave extra guys in.

Last week was all a plan to embitter Michigan because that's how important that is to OSU.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

Farris hamstrings Ohio State attempts to pass.

Michigan's defensive line is good enough to win up front, allowing Michigan to play that deep safety.

Jabrill Peppers reveals he's from Krypton.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 6 (Baseline 5; +1 for Oh Look A Team That Is Like N –1 for N over the last N years, +1 for General Existence Of Joey Bosa, +1 for I Don't Actually Like This Tactical Matchup For M's D, –1 for What On Earth Was That Last Week, –1 for Not Really A Fluke, That's What OSU's Been Most Of The Year, –1 for Harbaugh, +1 for Last Week Was A Historical Outlier Don't Expect It To Recur)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for The Game)

Loss will cause me to... put on an extra pair of pants

Win will cause me to... never wear pants again

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

I have no idea.

Michigan could kill 'em up front and get to sit that beautiful deep safety back all day and maybe get gashed a few times and hold OSU down to not many points since they can't pass, or it could all come apart since they haven't handled mobile QBs well this year.

OSU could swarm Rudock and destroy the run game, or Rudock could win this f-ing thing himself and Jabrill Peppers. I do not know. So let's just pick the thing that makes me happy.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday: