Paul Ryan, capping meteoric career touched by frustration, won't seek re-election

U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan’s decision not to seek re-election spells the end of a meteoric congressional career, caps an awkward struggle with the ascendancy of Donald Trump and sends an ominous signal about his party’s prospects of holding the GOP majority in the House this November.

“This is a job that does not last forever,” Ryan said at a news conference in Washington Wednesday morning, saying his desire to spend more time with his wife and three teenage kids was the main factor in his decision, and denying that his party’s cloudy election outlook played a role.

"If I'm here for one more term, my kids will only have known me as a weekend dad. I just can't let that happen," he said.

Rumors of Ryan’s departure had abounded in recent months, fueled by private conversations about his future, the short shelf life of a speaker’s tenure, his reluctance to become speaker in the first place, his differences with Trump, the possibility of a Democratic wave this fall and the absence of a formal re-election announcement.

A source close to Ryan said he had been discussing this possibility for some time with family and close advisers and was considering running again as late as February. His decision was made over spring break. Ryan told the president, GOP leaders, his aides and his Wisconsin colleagues Wednesday morning before meeting with the Republican House conference.

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Ryan said Wednesday he was leaving on his own terms. Addressing speculation that he would run again this fall, then step down in 2019, Ryan said he considered that course, but said it would be misleading to his constituents.

He said he had “no regrets whatsoever” about taking the speaker’s job in 2015.

“We have achieved a heck of a lot,” he said, citing the sweeping GOP tax cut bill enacted at the end of the year and increases in military spending as the party’s major achievements. He acknowledged the failure to overhaul entitlements, a signature cause of his, but one that Trump himself opposed in the case of Medicare. Instead, Congress has passed legislation that is fueling increases in the deficit.

“That’s where the work needs to be done,” said Ryan, 48, who was first elected to Congress in 1998, rose swiftly to become budget chair, parlayed that job into becoming his party’s point man on economics and government spending, was tapped by Mitt Romney for the GOP ticket in 2012, realized his ambition of chairing the Ways and Means committee, then was pressed into the speakership in the fall of 2015 by the departure of John Boehner.

"I accomplished much of what I wanted to do," Ryan said, noting repeatedly that he was reluctant to take the speaker position.

"I gave this job everything I have."

Ryan was facing his best-financed challenge in years in his First Congressional District from Randy Bryce, one of two Democrats in the race for his seat. Democrats quickly cited his retirement Wednesday as a sign he feared a personal defeat as well as the loss of the GOP majority this fall.

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But Ryan remained a strong favorite to win his race, given his huge financial resources, the GOP lean of his district and his track record of big victory margins. Trump won Ryan's district by 10 points in 2016. Ryan won his own race by 35. His closest race was in 2012, and he still won that by more than 11 points.

His announcement comes on top of numerous other GOP retirements from the House this cycle. It also sets off a leadership contest on Capitol Hill within his party.

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Ryan said he considered but dismissed the notion that his retirement would cast a further cloud over GOP prospects this fall.

"I really do not believe whether I stay or go in 2019 is going to affect a person's individual race for Congress," he said at his news conference Wednesday. "If we do our jobs — as we are — we are going to be fine as a majority."

But in interviews with the Washington Post last month, former GOP congressional leaders Boehner and Eric Cantor both said a Ryan departure would look so bad for the party that they couldn't imagine him leaving. Cantor, the former majority leader, said it would be a "signal of surrender." The two men were reacting to speculation Ryan might resign his seat this spring or summer, which Ryan is not doing. But opting not to run again will be read by many in the political world in a similar fashion.

President Donald Trump tweeted praise about Ryan, calling him a "good man" and said "he will leave a legacy of achievement that nobody can question. We are with you Paul!" .

The news was first broken by the Axios political website, which said Ryan "has told confidants that he will announce soon that he won't run for re-election in November."

But whether Ryan left in January, or later in 2019, or at the end of another term, there was widespread belief his time as speaker was limited. That has been the history of modern speakers. And Ryan’s speakership was hugely complicated by the Trump presidency. Ryan and Trump represented dramatically different political styles, and – on certain issues – very different Republican visions.

Extensive interviews with his constituents in recent months have found them more polarized than ever over Ryan, largely because of division over Trump and Ryan’s handling of the Trump presidency. When Ryan criticized Trump in 2016, it angered many GOP voters, but raised Ryan's standing back home with Democrats, liberals, and many independents. When Ryan adopted a more supportive stance last year, it improved his numbers with Republicans, but the relative goodwill he long enjoyed with voters outside his party dissipated.

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Yet his statewide standing in Wisconsin was more positive than negative in the most recent poll by the Marquette Law School, taken Feb. 25 though March 1. In that poll, 46% of registered voters viewed him favorably, 39% unfavorably. His national numbers are much worse. In a recent nationwide poll by NBC and the Wall Street Journal, he was viewed positively by 24% of adults and negatively by 37%.

Ryan's support for Trump has earned him searing rebukes from the president's critics, including some on the right who once embraced the Janesville Republican. Ryan said Wednesday he was grateful to Trump because his 2016 victory gave the GOP the chance to implement its agenda.

But in response to a reporter's question, he also reiterated his view it would be wrong of Trump to fire special counsel Robert Mueller, something he said he didn’t expect to happen.

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“My thoughts haven’t changed, I think they should be allowed to do their jobs,” he said, referring to Mueller and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. “We have rule of law in this country.”

Earlier this week, Ryan's campaign reported it had raised more than $11 million in the latest fundraising period.

Team Ryan said that with the latest $11.1 million during the first quarter of 2018, it has raised more than $54 million during this election cycle.

In addition to Bryce, Ryan was facing challenges from Democrat Cathy Myers and, in his own party, Paul Nehlen. Now, Republicans face a candidate filing deadline in June to fill the void left by Ryan.

In his 10 House runs since 1998, Ryan never got less than 55% of the vote and usually topped 60%. But Bryce has raised $4.8 million so far and gotten national attention for his campaign.

"Paul Ryan decided to quit today rather than face Randy Bryce and the voters," Bryce campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said in a statement.

"With nearly $5 million raised to date, a strong field program aided by organized labor, a broad coalition of support locally and nationally, Randy Bryce is incredibly well positioned to be the next Representative for the First District," she said.

"Electorates far more conservative than Wisconsin's First have already elected Democrats in special elections in Wisconsin and across the country."

Jason Stein and Patrick Marley of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.