The biggest disruption to come next will be with autonomous vehicles. Truck drivers, bus drivers, taxi, limo, delivery vehicles, even planes, trains and ships. The technology exists now, it is a matter of legislation and liability insurance. Different jurisdictions will surely adapt in different ways. Business owners will be driving the agenda but the capital costs will be large. Consumers might improve efficiency and productivity however being able to work or sleep en route. Car sharing schemes are proliferating undermining protected taxi regimes.



Will the economy absorb these workers fast enough? Will there be political pressure for expanded safety nets? If you think technology through occupation by occupation I think we can be optimistic. Doctors for example wont be going anywhere as the regulate their own profession. They have the keys to the medicine chest and regulate their own numbers and practices.



I cant see robots taking over most of the trades except maybe welding. It would be extremely expensive to make plumber and electrician robots. Perhaps in limited factory type settings like modular yards. And again that work is somewhat protected in North America. Im not sure if a company that wanted to use bipedal construction robots would be welcome by consumers or be given the legal right to do so.



What will be the effects on white collar corporate and government employees? This might relate more to artificial intelligence or something more limited much like office software was. They seem relatively safe in the short term at least. I don't think education or health care workers have too much worry. Again these groups are unionised for the most part and have virtual monopolies. Private education, computer tutoring might be disruptive especially in underdeveloped countries however. Also in the service industry, the media, law, finance and sales. Software dosn't seem to be autonomous enough, powerful or adaptive enough yet to threaten these kinds of jobs. Tools to make them more productive are surely going to come. Will this reduce the need for head count?



Natural resourses has seen huge technological change especially agriculture. But there are plenty of high paying jobs in energy extraction which will require manpower. Fully automated or at least remotely controlled drilling rigs seem possible.



I see security and the military as growth industries ;)

