Jeb Bush well ahead of Marco Rubio in race for Florida cash

Ledyard King | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON – Sen. Marco Rubio is outshining former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in the presidential polls, but Bush continues to hold a commanding lead over his one-time protégé in the dash for Florida cash.

New fundraising numbers show Bush has amassed $4.8 million from in-state contributors since entering the race in June, according to Federal Election Commission reports covering activity through Sept. 30.

That’s more than twice the nearly $2.3 million Rubio, a freshman senator from West Miami, has collected from Sunshine State contributors since his presidential campaign kick-off in April.

Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida, isn’t surprised at Bush’s financial advantage given his deep ties to the state’s GOP establishment and his access to the vast network of contributors who helped his father and brother win the presidency.

More money doesn’t automatically mean more voter support in a state with a winner-takes-all primary that could decide the GOP presidential nominee and, ultimately, who wins the White House, she said.

A University of North Florida poll released Monday showed Rubio with more support (14.9 percent) than Bush (9 percent) among 627 likely GOP primary voters in Florida. Businessman Donald Trump led the field with 21.7 percent, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.87 percentage points.National polls also are increasingly showing Rubio ahead of Bush.

But candidates with more money are better positioned to get their voters to the polls, said MacManus, recalling that President Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012 by aggressively identifying likely supporters and making sure they voted.

“You’ve got to have outreach, and outreach takes money,” she said. “It’s no longer just TV ads and mailers. That can be effective but what really can make a difference in winning or losing a state like Florida is the on-the-ground grassroots mobilization.”

Fundraising success often is a bragging point for campaigns that want to appear relevant and show momentum.

For Rubio and Bush, debate over the latest numbers highlights a growing rift between two politicians once considered close allies.

It began the afternoon of Oct. 15 when the Rubio campaign announced it had nearly $11 million in cash, an amount bolstered by donations from more than 15,500 Floridians. The campaign said it had started October "with more money in the bank than Jeb Bush for President and most other campaigns.”

But detailed campaign fundraising reports for both campaigns released later that day show Bush actually has more money to spend on the GOP primary race than Rubio - $10 million vs. $9.7 million – because some money Rubio collected can be used only if he wins the nomination.

That prompted a tart tweet the following day from Bush campaign spokesman Tim Miller: “Lying about budgets. Guess Marco picked up something in the Senate."

Both Rubio and Bush tried to down play the spat.

On CNN Sunday, Bush said he wasn’t “into all that,” but added that Rubio “kind of misled people about his fundraising results.”

On Monday, Rubio told Fox News there was no deception.

“We didn’t mislead,” he said. “The numbers are there and it shows what we’ve raised.”

Who’s winning the early money race and who might have fudged fundraising numbers probably won't matter much in the long run. Rubio won’t have any trouble raising money from Florida donors if he emerges as the frontrunner, MacManus said.

“Right now, people are choosing, and the people who have the most to give are usually the ones that are more established,” she said, explaining Bush’s money edge. Donors “still think of Rubio as up and coming. That could change on a dime if Rubio was going to get the nomination. The money would come back to him for sure.”

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The five presidential candidates who have received the most money from Florida donors (as of Sept. 30):

Jeb Bush (R): $4.75 million

Hillary Clinton (D): $4.03 million

Marco Rubio (R): $2.28 million

Ben Carson (R): $844,302

Ted Cruz (R): $842,841

Source: Federal Election Commission