by Vincent Verhei

Nine months in, 2016 has not been kind to Adrian Peterson. In January, it was his fumble in the playoffs that set up what proved to be a game-winning field goal for Seattle. Over the summer, Peterson explained that offseason activities were so boring that he was considering retirement. Then in August, Peterson and the rest of the Vikings watched as Teddy Bridgewater tore his knee apart in practice. With Peterson's career nearing its end and his window for a Super Bowl closing, the Vikings made a desperate move and traded for Sam Bradford. In the short term, that move might have saved Minnesota's season, but it hasn't done much for Peterson. With Shaun Hill at quarterback, Peterson had a terrible day in Week 1 against Tennessee, and he was having another lousy outing in Week 2 against Green Bay even before he went down with a knee injury. On Monday, it was announced that Peterson had torn his meniscus, and would likely be out for several weeks.

Peterson's age and latest knee injury would be enough to have us questioning his future, but let's not forget that even before he was hurt, he had been struggling. He has gained only 50 yards on 31 carries this season, an average of 1.6 yards per run that is second-worst in the NFL. And his two game total of minus-40 DYAR is the worst of any running back in the league this year, unusual territory for a back of Peterson's caliber. Is that a statistical fluke, or a sign that Peterson's inevitable decline has begun?

To find out, we went back to Week 2 in each of the past ten seasons to see who was last in DYAR at that time, how they looked by the end of the year, and how they fared over the rest of their careers. Are any of these players similar to Peterson?

2006: Hey, remember that time we put Kevin Jones on the cover of our book? And said he would win a rushing title? Well, can't win 'em all. Jones never came close to matching the 1,133 yards he put up as a rookie in 2004. Two games into Detroit's 2006 season, Jones was averaging 3.04 yards per carry, with three fumbles in only 26 carries and minus-52 DYAR. Things did not turn around for Jones that season, as he finished with only 689 yards and minus-104 DYAR. After that season, he gained 690 yards in two more years with the Lions and Bears.

2007: In his second NFL season, Reggie Bush was still fitting into the NFL, and the Saints were still trying to figure out how best to use him. His 22 carries through two weeks produced only 65 yards and minus-47 DYAR. He struggled through that season, finishing with 581 yards and minus-72 DYAR, but Bush had enough other skills to last a long time in the NFL. In nine more seasons with the Saints, Dolphins, Lions, 49ers, and Bills, Bush has rushed for 4,343 more yards and counting. (Yes, Bush is still active -- he has three carries for minus-4 yards in Buffalo.)

2008: One of the all-time first-round draft busts, Cincinatti's Chris Perry rushed for only 337 yards in his first three seasons, then got off to a terrible start in Year 4, with 40 carries for 106 yards (a 2.95-yard average), three fumbles, and minus-71 DYAR after two weeks. Perry finished the year with 269 yards and a 2.59-yard average, with minus-149 DYAR, one of the ten worst totals on record in the last category. He never played again, retiring with a career total of 606 rushing yards, second-lowest of any running back drafted in the first round this century (more on this later).

2009: Steve Slaton was one of the surprising rookies of 2008, a third-round draft pick out of West Virginia who finished sixth in the NFL in rushing after gaining 1,282 yards for the Texans. He would never again come close to matching those numbers. Two games into 2009, he was averaging 1.96 yards per rush, with three fumbles in only 26 carries and minus-74 DYAR. He continued to nose-dive, finishing the year with 437 yards and minus-122 DYAR. He would last only two more seasons in the league, rushing for 177 yards for the Texans and Dolphins.

2010: Like Slaton, Cadillac Williams was a hit as a rookie, gaining 1,178 yards on the ground with Tampa Bay and winning the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Williams' decline wasn't as sharp as Slaton's but his rookie season was unquestionably his best. By Week 2 of 2010, Williams was averaging 2.57 yards on 49 carries, with minus-62 DYAR. By season's end, he had gained only 437 yards and minus-65 DYAR. Williams would play only one more season, gaining 361 yards for the Rams in 2011.



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2011: After four straight thousand-yard seasons in San Francisco, Frank Gore had struggled with injuries in 2010, gaining only 853 yards in 11 games. He followed that with a rotten two-game start in 2011, averaging only 2.52 yards on 46 carries and compiling minus-47 DYAR, and it looked like his career might have been coming to a rapid end. When all was said and done, though he still finished the season below replacement level at minus-17 DYAR, he had amassed 1,211 yards on the ground. He has since gained 4,518 more yards in five-plus seasons with the 49ers and Colts, and has gained 103 yards in Indianapolis this season.

2012: Shonn Greene gained 117 yards on 38 carries in two weeks for the Jets, but two fumbles in Week 1 dropped him to minus-71 DYAR. He fumbled just once the rest of the year and finished with 1,063 yards and 49 DYAR, the only runner on this list to finish above replacement level after his slow start. But Greene was 27 in 2012, and like most running backs he was done by age 30, gaining 687 yards in two more seasons with Tennessee.

2013: Remember when we said Chris Perry had the second-lowest yardage total of any first-round draft pick this century? Say hi to David Wilson! Wilson gained only 358 yards as a rookie in 2012 with the Giants, and his second season began with 14 carries, 36 yards, two fumbles, and minus-53 DYAR. He barely played after that, finishing the season with only 146 yards and minus-40 DYAR. That's a career total of 504 yards for the 32nd overall pick in 2012. For comparison's sake, Ezekiel Elliott, this year's only first-round running back, has 134 yards in two games. At that rate, he will pass Wilson's career total against Cleveland in Week 9.

2014: A second-round pick out of Stanford in 2010, Toby Gerhart played well for many years as a backup to Peterson in Minnesota, averaging 4.2 yards per carry in four years with the Vikings. In 2014, the Jaguars signed Gerhart to a deal worth up to $10.5 million in hopes he could maintain that success as a full-time starter. Well, he couldn't. Gerhart gained only 50 yards on 24 carries in his first two games in Jacksonville, good for minus-37 DYAR. Gerhart was benched for Denard Robinson midway through the season, and finished with only 326 yards and minus-35 DYAR. He rushed for only 44 yards in seven games in 2015 and was released after that season, and remains unsigned.



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2015: We broke down DeMarco Murray's woes in Philadelphia one year ago in this space, when Murray was stuffed for no gain or a loss eight times in his first 21 carries. To that point in the season, he was averaging 0.52 yards per carry (not a typo) and had amassed minus-63 DYAR. Things improved greatly after that, but Murray still finished with 702 yards and minus-29 DYAR. Murray was traded to Tennessee after the season; he has 131 yards with the Titans so far in 2016.

So in ten prior seasons, only twice did the last-place runner after Week 2 finish with a thousand yards that year, and only two went over a thousand total yards in future seasons either. On the other hand, the one who did both, Frank Gore, is the only player mentioned here who can really be fairly compared to Peterson. Gore was also three years younger in 2011 than Peterson is now, but he has shown that special backs are capable of bouncing back from bad starts -- and Adrian Peterson is certainly a special back.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 24/34 374 1 0 1 176 173 3 BUF Fitzpatrick was at his best on the second, third, and fourth drives of the game. On those three possessions, he went 10-of-11 for 167 yards and nine first downs, plus a DPI for 26 more yards and another first down. The Jets scored 17 points on those three drives. When your defense makes Ryan Fitzpatrick look like the best quarterback in the league, there is only one reasonable course of action: fire your offensive coordinator. 2. Matt Ryan ATL 26/34 396 3 1 1 174 174 0 OAK Ryan killed the Raiders with the deep ball. He threw four passes that traveled at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, and all four were caught, for 146 total yards. Julio Jones only had one of those catches, while Aldrick Robinson had one and rookie tight end Austin Hooper had two. 3. Derek Carr OAK 34/45 299 3 0 1 147 145 2 ATL The more trouble the Raiders were in, the better Carr played. When they were down by more than 8 points, he went 6-of-8 for 75 yards, with every throw going for a first down, including a touchdown. When they were down by 1 to 8 points, he went 21-of-27 for 187 yards and 10 first downs, including two touchdowns, plus DPIs of 36 and 13 yards, with one sack. But when they were tied or (briefly) ahead, Carr went 7-of-10 for 37 yards and only one first down. 4. Jimmy Garoppolo NE 18/27 234 3 0 0 144 144 0 MIA Garoppolo was nearly perfect on third downs against Miami, completing 6-of-7 passes for 90 yards. Five of those completions picked up first downs. The other one would have, but Danny Amendola fumbled the ball away after a 15-yard gain on third-and-8. 5. Eli Manning NYG 32/41 368 0 0 2 141 141 0 NO Manning was very good over most of the field, but horrible in the red zone, where he went 2-of-5 for 12 yards and no first downs. He threw incomplete passes on third-and-1, third-and-2, and fourth-and-2 inside the 3-yard line. 6. Carson Palmer ARI 18/31 308 3 0 1 131 131 0 TB Palmer only threw four passes to the middle of the field in this game, all with 4 yards or less to go for a first down. He completed three of them for 14 total yards and three first downs, including two touchdowns. 7. Ryan Tannehill MIA 32/44 389 2 2 0 130 121 9 NE Every single pass Tannehill threw against New England came with Miami trailing, and 39 of them came with Miami down by at least two scores. The sweet spot for Tannehill was on throws that traveled 11 to 25 yards downfield. At that range, he went 10-of-12 for 200 yards and 10 first downs, including two touchdowns. A 13th pass at that range resulted in a DPI for 20 more yards. 8. Cam Newton CAR 24/39 353 4 1 1 101 91 10 SF For all his strengths as a football player these days, Newton still struggles with accuracy and touch on short passes. On throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, Newton went 6-of-11 for 17 yards and no first downs. 9. Andy Dalton CIN 31/54 367 1 0 1 91 91 -1 PIT In a game the Bengals lost by eight points, they really could have used better red zone production from their quarterback. Inside the Pittsburgh 20, Dalton went 2-of-7 for 8 yards and zero first downs, though he did pick up a first down and 9 yards on third-and-6 with a DPI. 10. Dak Prescott DAL 22/30 292 0 0 4 87 76 11 WAS The Cowboys got a win on Sunday, but Prescott also struggled in the red zone, going 2-of-6 for 9 yards and no first downs, with a sack. But, like Dalton, Prescott did get a red zone DPI, resulting in 6 yards and a first down on first-and-goal from the 7. 11. Philip Rivers SD 17/24 220 4 0 3 86 81 6 JAC Rivers played best between his 40 and the Jacksonville 20. In that part of the field, he went 7-of-8 for 165 yards and six first downs, including touchdowns of 44 and 45 yards. A ninth pass resulted in a DPI for 13 more yards. 12. Tyrod Taylor BUF 18/29 287 3 1 0 83 69 13 NYJ For 45 minutes of game time, Taylor was about as boom-and-bust a quarterback as you'll ever see. At the end of the third quarter, he was 10-of-18 for 204 yards. Only three of those completions went for third downs, but two of those were touchdowns of 84 and 71 yards. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 13. Trevor Siemian DEN 22/33 266 0 1 1 81 79 2 IND Siemian threw only one deep pass against Carolina in Week 1, and that pass was intercepted. He was much more agressive against a Colts secondary that was missing its top five cornerbacks. Indianapolis' replacements knew they couldn't cover bona fide NFL receivers downfield, and it looks like they barely even tried. Siemian threw three deep passes against the Colts, and all three resulted in DPIs of 18, 16, and 21 yards. 14. Sam Bradford MIN 22/30 286 2 0 4 63 63 0 GB Bradford was very good at getting big plays on early downs, but he wasn't too hot at keeping drives alive. On third and fourth downs, he went 9-of-10 for 85 yards, which sounds great, but only four of those completions picked up first downs. An 11th throw resulted in a DPI and 12 more yards, but he was also sacked three times. 15. Kirk Cousins WAS 28/45 364 1 1 2 50 39 11 DAL Another quarterback who lost a close game due at least in part to red zone troubles. Inside the Dallas 20, he went 4-of-11 for 28 yards with one touchdown and another first down. Early in the fourth quarter, Washington had a first-and-goal at the 6, up 3, where a touchdown likely would have put the game away. Cousins then went incomplete, incomplete, interception. 16. Marcus Mariota TEN 25/33 238 2 1 3 43 41 2 DET Tennessee's first drive of the second half ended with a Mariota interception. Up to that point, he had gone 12-of-18 for 102 yards with almost as many sacks (three) as first downs (four). From that point forward, he went 13-of-15 for 136 yards and seven first downs, including both touchdowns, plus DPIs of 5 and 8 yards. 17. Carson Wentz PHI 21/33 190 1 0 2 43 43 -1 CHI 18. Case Keenum LARM 18/30 239 0 0 3 31 30 1 SEA The theme this week seems to be "quarterbacks who failed in scoring range." Once crossing the Seattle 40, Keenum was useless, going 2-of-5 for 6 yards and no first downs, plus a sack for a loss of 9. Yes, in six plays his total contribution was a loss of yards. The Rams would literally have been better off had he just spiked the ball for an incompletion every time. 19. Joe Flacco BAL 25/45 302 2 2 0 24 24 0 CLE Third downs: 10-of-15, 129 yards, with every completion going for a first down. 20. Drew Brees NO 29/44 263 1 0 2 17 17 0 NYG Third-down struggles: 6-of-11, 53 yards, three first downs, two sacks. 21. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 19/37 259 3 2 1 10 3 7 CIN 22. Brian Hoyer CHI 9/12 78 0 0 0 10 10 0 PHI Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 23. Russell Wilson SEA 22/35 256 0 0 2 3 12 -9 LARM Hey, look! Here's another quarterback who couldn't finish drives! On Los Angeles' half of the field, Wilson went 5-of-10 for 35 yards with just one first down, one sack, and one fumble. 24. Jacoby Brissett NE 6/9 92 0 0 2 -10 -19 10 MIA 25. Josh McCown CLE 20/33 260 2 2 3 -16 -9 -7 BAL Whatever McCown's strengths might be, they do not include accuracy on the deep ball. He threw 12 deep balls against Baltimore, with the Ravens coming down with as many interceptions (two) as the Browns had receptions, though one of those receptions was a 31-yard touchdown. 26. Blaine Gabbert SF 17/36 243 2 2 2 -25 -35 10 CAR Midway through the fourth quarter, Gabbert hit Vance McDonald for a 75-yard touchdown to pull the 49ers within seven. Gabbert's next seven dropbacks included four incompletions, two interceptions, and one sack, and that was pretty much that. 27. Blake Bortles JAC 31/50 329 2 2 2 -34 -53 19 SD Bortles' two touchdowns both came with Jacksonville down 30-plus points in the fourth quarter. I'm stealing this stat from Scott Kacsmar, because it's insane: Blake Bortles is now the NFL's all-time leader in garbage time touchdown passes now has 21 touchdowns while down by multiple scores in the second half in games his team has lost. He breaks a tie with Johnny Unitas and Tom Brady, who had 20 each. Unitas played in 211 NFL games. Brady is momentarily stuck at 223. Bortles has played 32.(NOTE: I misinterpreted Scott's Tweet. Bortles has passed Brady and Unitas, which is still amazing, but he still has a long way to go to break Brett Favre's record of 53. I regret the error.) 28. Matthew Stafford DET 22/40 260 1 1 4 -37 -46 9 TEN 29. Jay Cutler CHI 12/17 157 0 1 3 -60 -60 0 PHI 30. Aaron Rodgers GB 20/36 213 1 1 5 -64 -80 16 MIN Four of Rodgers' sacks (and one of his two fumbles) came as he unsuccessfuly tried to rally the Packers to a second-half comeback. 31. Brock Osweiler HOU 19/33 268 1 2 2 -69 -69 0 KC The screen pass is basically not a weapon in the Houston playbook, or at least it wasn't against Kansas City. Osweiler only threw two passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, completing both for 14 total yards and one first down. 32. Alex Smith KC 20/37 186 0 0 4 -95 -91 -4 HOU Add Smith to the list of guys who just couldn't finish. On Houston's half of the field, he went 7-of-14 for 52 yards with only two first downs, plus a 12-yard DPI and one sack. He did not pick up a first down on the Texans' side of the 50 until Kansas City was down by 10 points midway through the fourth quarter. 33. Andrew Luck IND 21/40 197 1 1 5 -114 -125 11 DEN Ironically, Luck played pretty well in the end zone (3-of-6, 20 yards, three first downs and a score), but had big problems at the other end of the field. At or inside his own 25, he went 4-of-9 for 38 yards and two first downs, with one sack-fumble that was returned for a big Denver touchdown. 34. Jameis Winston TB 27/52 243 1 4 3 -173 -174 1 ARI Tampa Bay's oversized receiving corps is supposed to specialize in deep balls, but that sure wasn't the case against rizona. Winston threw 13 deep balls against the Cardinals, completing only one (hey, at least it was a 19-yard touchdown) while three were intercepted. The last of those interceptions, though, came on the last play of the game. We're considering it a Hail Mary and treating it as an incompletion, not an interception, for the purposes of DVOA and DYAR.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Latavius Murray OAK 8 57 1 6/6 44 0 54 35 19 ATL In just eight carries, Murray picked up five first downs, including gains of 18 and 15 yards and a goal-line touchdown. Meanwhile, he was hit for no gain just once. He had three more first downs through the air. 2. Giovani Bernard CIN 5 17 0 9/11 101 1 37 1 37 PIT Bernard had three first-down catches, including a 25-yard touchdown. His only successful carry was a 10-yard gain on third-and-1. 3. David Johnson ARI 12 45 0 3/5 98 0 35 -2 38 TB On the ground, Johnson had just one first down, nothing longer than 10 yards, and was hit for no gain three times. All three of his catches went for first downs, though, on gains of 16, 24, and 58. 4. Melvin Gordon SD 24 102 1 3/3 18 0 35 30 5 JAC Seven first downs on the ground, with three gains of 10 or more yards. He was stuffed for no gain or a loss five times. His biggest catch was an 11-yard gain on second-and-9. 5. Devonta Freeman ATL 17 93 0 0/0 0 0 32 32 0 OAK Six first downs on the ground, with three gains of 10 or more yards, while getting stuffed for a loss just once.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Latavius Murray OAK 8 57 1 6/6 44 0 54 35 19 ATL 2. Devonta Freeman ATL 17 93 0 0/0 0 0 32 32 0 OAK 3. Melvin Gordon SD 24 102 1 3/3 18 0 35 30 5 JAC 4. Matt Forte NYJ 30 100 3 2/3 9 0 24 30 -5 BUF With three red zone touchdowns, Forte was the kind of goal-line threat every team could have used this week, even if he was stuffed for no gain or a loss six times. Still, when your defense makes the 30-year-old Forte look like he's 24 again, there is only one reasonable course of action: fire your offensive coordinator. 5. Matt Jones WAS 13 61 1 1/1 4 0 29 25 4 DAL Nothing earth-shattering here, just two first downs and nothign longer than his 14-yard touchdown. But he had a median gain of 4 yards, and only two stuffs for no gain.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. T.J. Yeldon JAC 7 28 0 7/10 10 0 -35 3 -38 SD Yeldon did have a 15-yard run, but only two of his completions were successful and five of them (!) lost yardage. Only 12 players had five catches that lost yardage in all 16 games in 2015; nobody had more than eight. He did pick up 14 yards on a DPI.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. DeAngelo Williams PIT 32 94 0 4/5 38 1 0 -28 28 CIN Almost literally going from the penthouse to the outhouse, Williams was first in rushing value last week. This week, not so much. Only four first downs, nothing longer than 11 yards, nine stuffs for no gain or a loss, and eight more that gained exactly 1 yard. Yes, his median gain was just 1 yard.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR Opp 1. Stefon Diggs MIN 9 10 182 20.2 1 87 GB Only three of Diggs' catches failed to produce first downs: a 9-yard catch on second-and-13, a 14-yard catch on third-and-20, and a 15-yard catch on third-and-27. He also picked up a 12-yard DPI on third-and-6. 2. Travis Benjamin SD 6 6 115 19.2 2 68 JAC Benjamin's DYAR total includes minus-2 rushing DYAR for his only carry, a 1-yard loss. As a receiver, he had touchdowns of 45 and 6 yards, another catch that went for 43, and an 11-yard gain on first-and-10. 3. Kelvin Benjamin CAR 7 9 108 15.4 2 66 SF Six total first downs on the day, including touchdowns of 10 and 9 yards, plus a pair of 25-yard gains. 4. Eric Decker NYJ 6 8 126 21.0 1 66 BUF Decker's shortest catch was a 5-yard touchdown; each of his others gained at least 17 yards and a first down. When your defense makes Eric Decker look like one of the best wide receivers in the league there's only one reasonable course of action: fire your offensive coordinator. (If you're not sick of this joke yet, don't worry -- I'm going to go back to it whenever anyone has a big day against the Bills, which means I'll probably be going back to it all year.) 5. Julio Jones ATL 5 5 106 21.2 1 55 OAK Three first downs, on gains of 48, 21 (for a touchdown), and 20 yards.