I don’t know much about Missouri politics, but I do know the state is ending up with eight districts (down one) after redistricting, and Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon gets the opportunity to veto any map that is submitted by the legislature. So, I drew up a quick-and-dirty map.

I think Nixon and the Democrats are likely to settle for a 2-5-1 map. Anything better for the Democrats isn’t going to pass muster in the legislature, and anything better for the Republicans is going to get vetoed.

MO-01 (blue, safe Democratic)

Democratic Rep. William Lacy Clay gets to keep his safe urban district, which remains narrowly minority-majority (48% white, 47% black). Not much to add here. I definitely don’t think the northward excursion into St. Charles County will be enough to give a Republican an opening, especially with the racial demographics staying pretty much as is. If Clay gets to draw his own district, it might end up more confined to St. Louis City than in this drawing, but I think Nixon will be talking to Clay and other African American legislators to ensure a 2-5-1 map. If he can keep them safe, there’s no real reason for them to throw Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan in MO-03 to the wolves altogether.

MO-02 (green, likely Republican)

This wealthy, white suburban district, currently held by Republican Rep. Todd Akin, has been consolidated somewhat. I think he should retain it barring a stern Democratic challenge, although a Democrat with suburban appeal might be able to make him sweat considering the lack of ruby-red rural areas. And I don’t know exactly where Rep. Carnahan lives, but if he and Akin are drawn into the same district, that would be a marquee battle.

MO-03 (purple, swing)

Assuming Rep. Carnahan runs in this district, I think he might have a tougher go of things than before. It includes a lot more of rural Missouri along the Mississippi River, though it includes enough of St. Louis and its suburbs to remain competitive. Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson has also been drawn into this district, so it’d be a classic urban-rural matchup.

MO-04 (red, safe Republican)

Rep.-elect Billy Long should be able to keep this seat Republican despite having a lot of new territory to cover.

MO-05 (yellow, likely Republican)

Republican Rep.-elect Vicki Hartzler gets some new ground, too, including most of the current MO-07, but I don’t really see this district swinging either way, maybe unless Democratic Rep.-elect Ike Skelton ran again. But I doubt he will.

MO-06 (teal, safe Republican)

It was a bit of a pain to keep Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican congressman for the current MO-09 (which encompasses most of this district), in this district. He’d be fine here.

MO-07 (grey, safe Republican)

Republican Rep. Tom Graves overcame his stiffest challenge in 2008 with flying colors. He’s solid here, despite this district including so much of (suburban) Jackson County. No reason to think he’s not safe.

MO-08 (slate blue, safe Democratic)

This district is basically Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s current MO-05, urban Jackson and Clay counties stealing a few precincts from the urban parts of Cass and Platte counties. Cleaver should be just fine here.

Thoughts? Expertise from more Missouri-savvy SSPers?