After the release of the 2019 Schedule , the next big item on the agenda is figuring out who are the best and worst teams in the NFL. Every year, CG Technology releases point spreads for each of the first 240 games of the NFL season (i.e., spreads for every game during each of the first 16 weeks). And, every year , I then use those weekly ratings to derive the Vegas ratings are for each team. Hence the title of today’s post: we can use the Vegas point spreads in each game to derive the implied ratings by CG Technology for each team.

The way to do this is to take the point spread in each game, adjust for home field (except for the five international games), and then determine by how many points Vegas thinks Team A is better than Team B. For example, when the Jets are favored by 6 points in a home game against the Dolphins, we can take this to mean that Vegas thinks New York is about three points better than Miami. When we see that the Jets and Dolphins game is a pick’em for the matchup in Miami, this helps reinforce that view. And when Vegas says the Jets are a pick’em against the Browns at home, that tells us that Vegas thinks the Jets are about 3 points worse than the Browns *and* that the Dolphins are about 6 points worse than Cleveland. Using the iterative SRS process, and because the transitive property of point spreads applies, we can generate team ratings based on the 240 point spreads involved.

Here’s how to read the table below, in each case excluding week 17 action. After adjusting for home field advantage, the Patriots are expected to beat their average opponent by 6.6 points. On average, New England’s opponents (after adjusting for *their* strength of schedule) are 1.0 points below average, which means the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 points better than average (difference due to rounding). That’s the best in the league; the worst team in the league is the Cardinals.

Rk Team G Exp MOV Exp SOS Exp SRS 1 New England Patriots 15 6.6 -1 5.5 2 Los Angeles Rams 15 5.4 0.1 5.4 3 Kansas City Chiefs 15 5.2 0.2 5.4 4 New Orleans Saints 15 5 0 5 5 Los Angeles Chargers 15 3.1 -0.3 2.9 6 Chicago Bears 15 1.9 0.7 2.5 7 Philadelphia Eagles 15 2.9 -0.5 2.4 8 Indianapolis Colts 15 2.3 0 2.3 9 Green Bay Packers 15 1.6 0.3 1.9 10 Seattle Seahawks 15 1.8 0.2 1.9 11 Minnesota Vikings 15 1.5 0.2 1.7 12 Dallas Cowboys 15 1.5 0.2 1.7 13 Pittsburgh Steelers 15 2 -0.4 1.5 14 Houston Texans 15 -0.1 0.9 0.7 15 Baltimore Ravens 15 0.8 -0.3 0.5 16 Atlanta Falcons 15 -0.4 0.8 0.4 17 Cleveland Browns 15 0.8 -0.5 0.4 18 Carolina Panthers 15 -0.5 0 -0.5 19 San Francisco 49ers 15 -0.6 0 -0.6 20 Tennessee Titans 15 -1.3 0.4 -0.9 21 Jacksonville Jaguars 15 -1.1 0 -1 22 Denver Broncos 15 -2.4 0.9 -1.5 23 New York Jets 15 -1.7 -0.8 -2.5 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15 -3.4 0.3 -3.1 25 Detroit Lions 15 -3.4 0.1 -3.3 26 Washington Redskins 15 -3 -0.3 -3.3 27 Buffalo Bills 15 -2.7 -0.6 -3.3 28 Oakland Raiders 15 -4.2 0.8 -3.4 29 New York Giants 15 -2.8 -0.8 -3.6 30 Cincinnati Bengals 15 -4 -0.3 -4.3 31 Miami Dolphins 15 -4.7 -0.4 -5.1 32 Arizona Cardinals 15 -5.9 0.1 -5.8

We can also take these generated ratings to produce full-season Strength of Schedule ratings. The only changes we need to make are to include week 17 games and also make these ratings adjusted for home field. You might think we don’t need to adjust for home field, but given that there are 5 neutral site games, it means 10 teams will have an uneven number of home and road games.

When we do that, we see that the Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. Note that to be clear, this is NOT because New England’s opponents are expected to be worse because they played New England; after all, these schedules are derived by iteration, which means New England’s opponents’ ratings are adjusted for that fact. And as you can see, the entire AFC East has a very easy schedule — the Patriots schedule is just easier than the rest of the AFC East because New England gets two games against a non-Patriots AFC East foe, while the rest of the AFC East has two games against the Patriots.

The AFC East schedule this year is very easy for three reasons: the AFC East is the worst division in the NFL (average SRS rating of -1.3), and the AFC East plays the two other worst divisions in the NFL: the NFC East and AFC North. The full SOS ratings below, and here’s how to read it: The Oakland Raiders have the toughest schedule in 2019, with an average opponent being 0.9 points harder than average (the Raiders also have only 7 home games, which is included in that average). Oakland is in the AFC West, and that division faces the AFC South and NFC North this year.

Rk Team SOS Division Opp Divisions 1 Oakland Raiders 0.9 AFC West AFCS; NFCN 2 Denver Broncos 0.7 AFC West AFCS; NFCN 3 Houston Texans 0.6 AFC South AFCW; NFCS 4 Atlanta Falcons 0.6 NFC South NFCW; AFCS 5 Chicago Bears 0.5 NFC North NFCNE; AFCW 6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.5 NFC South NFCW; AFCS 7 Arizona Cardinals 0.4 NFC West NFCS; AFCN 8 Tennessee Titans 0.4 AFC South AFCW; NFCS 9 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.4 AFC South AFCW; NFCS 10 Minnesota Vikings 0.3 NFC North NFCNE; AFCW 11 Los Angeles Chargers 0.3 AFC West AFCS; NFCN 12 Detroit Lions 0.2 NFC North NFCNE; AFCW 13 Kansas City Chiefs 0.2 AFC West AFCS; NFCN 14 Carolina Panthers 0.1 NFC South NFCW; AFCS 15 Seattle Seahawks 0.1 NFC West NFCS; AFCN 16 San Francisco 49ers 0.1 NFC West NFCS; AFCN 17 Green Bay Packers 0.1 NFC North NFCNE; AFCW 18 Miami Dolphins 0 AFC East AFCN; NFCE 19 New Orleans Saints 0 NFC South NFCW; AFCS 20 Indianapolis Colts -0.1 AFC South AFCW; NFCS 21 Dallas Cowboys -0.1 NFC East NFCN; AFCE 22 Los Angeles Rams -0.1 NFC West NFCS; AFCN 23 Washington Redskins -0.2 NFC East NFCN; AFCE 24 Baltimore Ravens -0.2 AFC North AFCE; NFCW 25 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.4 AFC North AFCE; NFCW 26 Cincinnati Bengals -0.4 AFC North AFCE; NFCW 27 New York Giants -0.6 NFC East NFCN; AFCE 28 Philadelphia Eagles -0.7 NFC East NFCN; AFCE 29 Buffalo Bills -0.7 AFC East AFCN; NFCE 30 Cleveland Browns -0.7 AFC North AFCE; NFCW 31 New York Jets -0.9 AFC East AFCN; NFCE 32 New England Patriots -1.3 AFC East AFCN; NFCE

As you can see, New England’s schedule is last in the table, and by a large margin (an average opponent that is 1.3 points weaker than average). This isn’t so much the Patriots “fault” as a fact that New England is simply the beneficiary of a lot of good fortune. Only two games each season are assigned based on last year’s record, and New England gets Kansas City (at home) and Houston (away) in those games. But the other 14 games all come against the three worst divisions in the NFL, which is true of all other AFC East teams. Here are the ratings for each division:

Division Avg SRS Rating AFC West 0.9 NFC North 0.7 NFC South 0.4 AFC South 0.3 NFC West 0.2 AFC North -0.5 NFC East -0.7 AFC East -1.3

The AFC West, meanwhile, in addition to being the toughest division in the NFL by SRS, faces the second toughest division in the AFC (the South) and then the toughest division in the NFC (the North). So the Raiders, who don’t benefit by playing themselves, have the toughest schedule, while the Broncos have the second toughest.

Please leave your thoughts in the comments.