By obsessing about the Brexit Party, Remainers are failing to inspire their own side We cannot prevent Nigel Farage from winning. But we can beat him. Quite easily, actually

Kenny Dalglish, asked during a halftime interview what his team needed to do in order to win, reputedly answered: “score more goals than the other side”.

This is as fundamental a truth in politics as it is in football. “How can we prevent Farage from winning?” is the question on progressives’ lips. It is the wrong question. “How do we beat Farage?” is the right question and the answer is simple: by scoring more goals.

A statistician I used to work with once said to me that the single greatest lie in any opinion poll is that its results are expressed in terms of percentages. If a poll came out which said five million people plan to vote for Farage’s latest vanity project, the strategy for Remainers would be blindingly clear. But when the poll says 30 per cent, the challenge appears somehow insurmountable.

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‘It will not get Farage a seat at the table. It will get him influence over one of the parties already at the table, namely the Conservative Party. It is a proxy vote’

And yet, that’s what we are talking about, on a typical European election turnout: five million people. Fewer than the Liberal Democrats got to vote for them in 2010. Fewer than the people who signed the petition to revoke Article 50.

What’s more, the Brexit Party topping the poll is irrelevant in terms of real power to change the current Brexit impasse. They understand this. Asked by Victoria Derbyshire to explain “how a vote for the Brexit Party next week would change the numbers in Parliament”, MEP candidate Alex Phillips had to admit it won’t, but it was a “vehicle the people of the UK have to say to the establishment – we want you to deliver Brexit”. It will not get Farage a seat at the table. It will get him influence over one of the parties already at the table, namely the Conservative Party. It is a proxy vote.

Five million ardent Brexiters

Remainers have, on the whole, not understood this. They act as if this is a general election in which it is vital to show “decent” voters how unacceptable a choice the Brexit Party is. But this is an election with a typical turnout below 35 per cent. 17.4 million people voted for Brexit. Farage needs between a quarter and a third of them to come top. He is addressing himself exclusively to that hardcore. He is not trying to convert anyone or appeal to moderates by recruiting Ann Widdecombe and Claire Fox. He just needs five million ardent Brexiters all fired-up.

The more progressives concentrate their attacks on how awful and outrageous Farage is, the more awfully and outrageously he behaves, the more fired up that core gets and the more likely to turn out for him. It is straight out of the Trump playbook.

Meanwhile, by obsessing about the Brexit Party, Remainers are failing to talk to their own side. The 16 million people who supported staying in the EU (a group which, according to all polling, has grown) are being ignored; put off even. “When campaigns disintegrate into shrill attacks”, Fridkin Kahn and Kenney found in the American Political Science Review, “voters tend to stay home”. So, not only are we energising his base, we are suppressing our own.

Much has been made of the fragmenting of the Remain vote. Much hand-wringing on social media about how much better it would be if there had been some Remain alliance. As if moaning about it on Twitter can turn back time. More negativity, more turnout suppression. We must stop. Think back to the Brexit Party’s objective – they have it spot on. The reward for doing well in the European Election is not a seat at the table. It is influence over those already at the table. The best strategy for Remain is to syphon as many votes as possible from those players – especially Labour.

We can beat Farage

As a means of stealing votes from other parties, several options may actually be much more effective than an alliance. Progressives are fussy. Would a Labour member vote for an alliance which included those ‘Blairite traitors’ of Change UK? Would a Green voter support ‘austerity enabling’ LibDem candidates? The only thing that matters is the total of votes for clear pro-Remain parties at the end of the day.

In short, we cannot prevent Farage from winning. But we can beat him. Quite easily, actually. His win-zone is a low turnout. He has never prevailed in any electoral contest with a turnout of over 40 per cent. He has a ceiling. The Vote Leave campaign recognised this and kept his toxicity at arms’ length.

So if you want to beat him, ignore him. He is talking to his base. Do not amplify that conversation. Talk to the Remain base. There are millions more than we need out there. Drive up turnout. The three columns of the final vote tally, the day after the referendum, will read: “No Deal Brexit, Brexit with A Deal, Remain”. Make sure you add as many votes to the latter column and ignore the rest. Negativity is Farage’s weapon; engagement his kryptonite.