Eastwood is in the centre of a seat that could decide the government’s fate, but its concerns are far from the scandals swirling around Canberra

In Rowe Street, Eastwood, elderly women sized up the bok choy at the outdoor markets and chatted outside shops displaying glossy roast ducks.

Eastwood, in the north-west of Sydney and once home to Granny Smith apples, is at the heart of the federal seat of Bennelong. It has transformed from a lower-middle-class white commuter suburb to a vibrant middle-class multicultural area that prides itself on its harmoniousness. The seat is considered one of the most diverse in Australia, with the 2016 census recording that 21% of the electorate identified some Chinese heritage, 4.7% Korean and 34% Australian, English or Irish.

But now it holds the key to Malcolm Turnbull’s political future and possibly Bill Shorten’s as well.

When the voters go to the polls for a byelection on Saturday, they will be deciding whether the Turnbull government clings on to its one-seat majority, or is forced to rely on independents to govern.

Kristina Keneally says Bennelong by​election a referendum on Turnbull government Read more

When the Guardian visited this week, a few themes emerged. Both candidates were well known to voters, showing that the Liberals’ John Alexander has put in the hard work over the past seven years and that Labor’s decision to run the former NSW premier Kristina Keneally is also working.

On the streets of Eastwood, when asked what would drive their vote, most people nominated the sort of things any other Sydneysider would nominate: congestion, transport issues, health and education services.

Voters downplayed the role played by cultural voting blocs, Turnbull’s China rhetoric and Sam Dastyari’s resignation. In fact, most didn’t realise what had happened at all.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A man chops roast pork in Eastwood, an area in the heart of Bennelong with a large Chinese community. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

Seated in the basement of the Eastwood Centre – which is owned by the Chinese billionaire at the centre of the Dastyari scandal, Huang Xiangmo – Peter Wong said it wasn’t something the Chinese community cared about.

As an older Australian, he said, he was “interested in the issue of Medicare”.

“John Alexander, in the past, he might be not quite looking after the elderly, in my mind,” he said.

James, who declined to provide a last name, said he had not heard of Dastyari’s Chinese links, Turnbull’s attack or the fallout.

“I don’t think the Chinese community are going to follow it that much,” he said. “I know there are major Chinese newspapers, so if that’s a headline on it, then maybe it will make an impact. I wouldn’t care myself.”

Some of the Chinese language newspapers, which routinely reproduce stories from the Beijing newspapers, have carried articles putting the Chinese government perspective that Turnbull has overreacted on the question of Chinese interference, is leaning towards racism in his rhetoric and putting the relationship at risk.

Why the citizenship crisis feels even more farcical in Bennelong Read more

But whether these are influential remains to be seen.

“[Turnbull’s] talking about bad Chinese people, a Chinese guy who supported one of the politicians,” said Danny Pang. “But Chinese people and the Chinese community here are two different things.”

Anita, who migrated from China 20 years ago, said she didn’t think her community voted as a bloc anyway. It was wrong to assume that one issue would sway the community, she said.

“I think they vote differently, because they have their own ideas,” she said. “Maybe they are Christian and they support the Christian candidate. Maybe they support the one who has really done something for the past year. It’s different.”

A Newspoll conducted last weekend put Liberals and Labor neck and neck, at 50% each on the two-party preferred vote. It used phone interviews of 527 voters and has a margin of error of 4.3%.

The Fairfax ReachTel poll taken on Tuesday – the day Dastyari resigned – put Alexander comfortably ahead of Keneally on 53-47, two-party preferred. It used robocalls and was based on 864 responses, giving an error rate of 3.5%.

It’s an open question whether either method is accurate when a substantial number of voters speak English as a second language.

What is known about Bennelong is that it is more conservative than other parts of Sydney. In the same-sex marriage survey, Bennelong voted no 50.2% to 49.8%.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Inspecting fresh produce in Eastwood, a multicultural middle-class suburb. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

For Keneally, a win in Bennelong would be both a blessing and a curse.

A win will commit her to a constant round of barbecues, school fetes and probably a move to the electorate. She currently lives on the boundary in Boronia Park, but the family has recently bought a house on Scotland Island in Pittwater in Sydney’s north, and Keneally had planned to spend more time in Canberra for Sky TV.

But the bigger problem will be the nature of the seat itself. Demographics and redistributions westward made Bennelong – once safely Liberal – increasingly marginal during the 1990s and 2000s.

When the seat’s longtime MP and then prime minister John Howard was defeated by the high-profile Maxine McKew in 2004, it was Labor’s first win there. But McKew was unable to hold it more than one term, despite a mighty effort.

Changing demographics are probably again making Bennelong more safely conservative. This election, a Chinese Christian, Cao Gui Dong, is running for the Christian Democrats for the first time. A boost to the party’s primary vote – which hit 6% last year – could point to a growing Chinese and Korean population with more conservative, religious ties.

If Keneally loses, she may well end up taking the Senate spot vacated by Dastyari. Or she may return to Sky, with the Labor party forever in her debt, while she awaits another opportunity.

The top Senate spot for Labor in NSW would certainly be an easier gig, as would a mooted tilt at the new seat in Canberra.

The government has attempted to make much of Keneally’s plan B. But in Rowe Street, Eastwood, it didn’t rate a mention.