As the Formula One season drew to a close on Monday morning, teams and drivers barely had enough time to nurse their hangovers after a night of celebrations before they were back out on the track in Abu Dhabi and undergoing 2019 testing.

The final grand prix of the season signalled a lot of new changes in F1 as one of the biggest driver reshuffles in recent memory takes place.

And one of the biggest moves is that of Daniel Ricciardo, casting away his grand prix-winning, championship-challenging Red Bull in favour of the less competitive Renault.

Will his gamble be a masterstroke or a misstep? There is evidence for and against, to excite and worry, the Australian...

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The evidence for success: Lewis Hamilton

It’s 2010 and Mercedes have returned to the sport as a constructor, rather than just an engine supplier, for the first time since 1955. They return in the middle of the V8 era, taking over from the hugely successful one-season team of Brawn, and recruiting past and future world champions Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg.

It’s Mercedes’ third season before they even take a pole position or win a race, doing both in 2012, a year before Lewis Hamilton arrived – and perhaps more importantly, two before the introduction of the V6 turbo hybrid era.

Hamilton’s decision to leave a then-competitive McLaren for a not-so-competitive Mercedes looked an odd one initially as he finished fourth in the drivers’ standings but then came the switch to V6 engines and Mercedes’ dominance began.

Five Constructors’ Championship and five Drivers’ Championships later, four of which Hamilton won, and they look unbeatable until at least 2021, when new regulations are brought in again.

Lewis Hamilton to the gamble to join Nico Rosberg at Mercedes in 2013. Source: Getty Images

Hamilton’s move has a few similarities to Ricciardo’s in that sense. They both went to a team with heavy financial backing, who are improving year-on-year and are close to another clean slate with new engine regulations. The Aussie, like Hamilton was, will also be unequivocally the No. 1 driver at the team (despite Rosberg’s success), after having to drive on a level playing field before.

Hamilton had only ever driven Mercedes-powered cars and while Ricciardo has not been exclusive to Renault through his career, he has for the last five seasons, for which time he has enjoyed the most success.

Ricciardo has signed a two-year deal with Renault which will take him up until the start of the new engine era. He will get a good feel for the team and whether they will be competitive from there on afterwards. In those terms, it is a wise move for Ricciardo.

The case against success: Fernando Alonso

After leaving Ferrari in 2014, Fernando Alonso moved back to traditional powerhouses McLaren who had just finished fifth in the Constructors’ Championships and, with the benefit of hindsight, were on the wane.

In his four seasons there, he never finished higher than fifth in a single grand prix, with the team finishing ninth twice and sixth twice in the standings. There was no continuity as they moved from Mercedes to Honda to Renault-powered engines in the hunt of short-term remedies to their demise.

While McLaren were moving in the opposite way to what Renault are now, they were still considered a bigger name at the time and a more secure passage to becoming a championship contender again. They were arguably less of a gamble, although Alonso’s decision then may have directly impacted his decision to retire this year. It’s no fun if you’re not winning.

Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button looked like a dream team for McLaren in 2015. Source: Supplied

Ricciardo is not yet the driver that Alonso was when he moved either, with much of the Spaniard’s successes at the team coming from his own talent, rather than having a good car.

Verdict

Ricciardo’s situation certainly bares more likeness to Hamilton’s decision to move than Alonso’s, although the success is not guaranteed and certainly won’t be as quick. What Renault have going for them is they build their own engines and can tailor their car as such, like Mercedes did with Hamilton’s.

If they follow this model, Ricciardo may see himself propelled into a championship contender once more, but that is only likely to come with the introduction of those new engine regulations in 2021. His contract will have expired by then and whether he will sign a new one will depend entirely on their progress as a team and his as a driver, as well as how frustrated he is feeling.

Daniel Ricciardo spent five years at Red Bull after graduating from Toro Rosso. Source: Getty Images

Given Max Verstappen’s progress, it is likely he would have been the No. 1 driver over Ricciardo next season and with Red Bull switching to Honda engines, his future successes there would have been far from guaranteed. Mercedes’ dominance means the first real chance for the Drivers’ Championship he craves would have been in 2021 whatever his decision was.

Perhaps the real gamble for Ricciardo actually comes at the end of 2020, when he will be 31, rather than now. His 2018 decision is more of a calculated risk.