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The biggest beneficiary of strict PR would, on the surface, appear to be the Liberal party, which is ideologically closer to the NDP and Greens and therefore more able to coalesce with them. But with a traditional vote ceiling of about 40 per cent, even the Liberals would be stuck in such arrangements for the rest of eternity. And it’s likely that since PR would eliminate any need for strategic voting, causing the other parties’ vote shares to increase. This could even result in an NDP-led coalition, since there would be no need to choose one “anti-Conservative” party, as left did in the 2015 election.

Forget pan-Canadian parties; say hello to political tribalism

While some may say this type of PR would be good for democracy — hey, let a thousand flowers bloom! — it would also mark the end of any kind of national political vision in a country already riven by differences in geography, culture, language and economy. Forget pan-Canadian parties; say hello to political tribalism. For both Liberals and Conservatives, this would be a negative outcome: for the country, it’s not clear that it would produce a more unifying government, something that our new prime minister is ironically seeking to create.

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My prediction? The government will keep its promise on electoral reform, as it should, but set itself up to fail on PR. There are two possible escape hatches. First, to avoid any constitutional challenges, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could refer the bill to the Supreme Court, just as former prime minister Stephen Harper did with his proposal for Senate reform.