Sep 18, 2017

Showcasing large weapons across the street from your neighbor’s driveway is a sure way to get their attention. Turkey did just that with a military exercise across the Habur border crossing with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq.

According to Turkey’s state-owned news agency Anadolu, the Turkish Armed Forces launched exercises Sept. 18 outside the town of Silopi, which sits less than 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the intersection of Turkey’s borders with Syria and Iraq. Turkish and international news outlets reported that approximately 100 tanks, armored personnel carriers and self-propelled artilleries are participating in the drill. The timing and venue of the exercises leave little doubt that Ankara is displeased with the Sept. 25 independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Defense analyst Arda Mevlutoglu told Al-Monitor in an email interview, “The [Turkish military's] statement underlines that the exercise is being conducted in coordination with the internal security operations in the region. However, such a massive mechanized maneuver is hardly reminiscent of counterterrorism operations: It resembles more of a cross-border incursion. … This exercise can be assessed as a strong message to the KRG before the Sept. 25 referendum.”

Asked whether Ankara is warning the KRG not to hold the referendum or to refrain from unilaterally declaring independence, Mevlutoglu highlighted recent statements by Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s spokesman and senior adviser Ibrahim Kalin. On Sept. 14, Kalin called on the KRG to “backtrack on the referendum mistake.”

Although Turkey is signaling its displeasure to Erbil, a military intervention over the KRG’s legally nonbinding referendum may not be wise or legally justified.