Do not mistake hesitation for caution. - Lucius Malfoy

Draco sat carefully at his desk, it was dark, so he took out his wand and cast Lumos once, carefully placing his wand so the light didn't wake Gregory. Draco had spent the last few days thinking about his encounter with the vision of Dumbledore. Had it been real or a false memory? Right now he wasn't sure, but he could at least verify or falsify what he'd learned. After a minute in the dim light Gregory still snored gently, so Draco opened his diary and started writing.

Falsifiable predictions made by Albus Dumbledore (?) on Harry Potter Day:

Voldemort's original name is Tom Riddle

Voldemort possessed Professor Quirrell

Voldemort killed Nicolas Flamel

Draco paused, then rubbed his thumb along the last line, which disappeared from the journal. Draco already knew Flamel had been murdered that night, so it didn't count as an advance prediction. In any case he had no way to investigate a complex, months old, distant murder.

Draco considered what else he'd heard. He started to write Harry Potter is, in some way, Voldemort. But that didn't count as an advanced prediction either. Everyone already wondered that. That thought had consumed Draco for months, and yet he didn't feel any distrust towards Harry. Concern, perhaps, but not distrust.

Was there some way to make a more specific prediction about Harry? Something bolder? Dumbledore had said "All of Tom Riddle's icy brilliance," the phrase stuck in Draco's mind. Draco chewed in his quill and thumbed through the transcript he'd written after waking up. Now he wasn't looking at what Dumbledore said, so much as what he implied.

Harry Potter arrived on the scene in a way that surprised Dumbeldore, but not Voldemort.

Draco remembered the final moment, where Dumbledore realized he'd lost and thrown away his long wand and the much shorter dark stone rod, instantly recognizable to all members of the Wizengamot and, in some cases, their heirs.

Albus Dumbledore was trapped in an elegant device (a mirror?) like the one I saw.

The Headmistress had said he was lost in time, and seeing him repeat like that mattered, but she hadn't mentioned a mirror. So that counted as something new.

Dumbledore threw away his wand and the Line of Merlin Unbroken

Which raised the question: Where did Amelia Bones find it?

Draco sighed, even if he managed to verify this information the memory still could be false or planted, but at least it would have been planted by someone who knew something approaching the truth. In plays investigations only took a few hours. Real life seemed so … messy, especially after last year's attempted murder and the last few months, Draco realized. Draco picked up his quill.

To do – Figure out how to prevent false memories, or if my memory is tampered with.

Draco paused, and then the letters wrote on their own.

I do not believe that memory is false.

Draco stared at the page, then quickly scribbled Why not?

Because I keep your secrets

Draco wrote further questions, but the words did not change, and his questions stay unanswered.

To: Gringotts Bank

From: Draco Malfoy, son of Lucius son of Abraxis Lords of the Noble and Most Ancient House of Malfoy, son also of Narcissa daughter of Druella Lady of the Noble and Most Ancient House of Black, scion and heir of the Noble and Most Ancient House of Malfoy:

As is well documented, both in journalistic accounts such as in the Daily Prophet and by the official investigation conducted by D.M.L.E. (now Chief Warlock) Amelia Bones: my Father Lucius Malfoy, formerly Lord of the Noble and Most Ancient House of Malfoy, died at the hands of Lord Voldemort sometime during the night of June 13th or morning of June 14th, 1992.

As is also well documented, Lucius Malfoy's late wife, Narcissa Malfoy, Lady of the Noble and Most Ancient House of Malfoy, did not appear before the Wizengamot until June 19th. Before that time she was legally dead.

This fact is also not in dispute.

Narcissa Malfoy's death was not in doubt to Lucius Malfoy at the time of his death, as the revisions to his Will from over a decade ago make clear. Lucius Malfoy made provisions for myself in case of his death and no mention was made of his late wife. While I am not fully of age, the facts and the law are clear: Narcissa Malfoy is not my legal guardian, nor I her ward, and while I do have reduced rights (due to my age) over my vault, she has none.

Therefore, in accordance with the Last Will and Testament of Lucius Malfoy (&c &c), of the Most Noble and Ancient House of Malfoy, I, Draco Malfoy (&c &c) do instruct Gringotts bank that:

First, the Lady Narcissa Malfoy (&c &c) has no claim to any of the wealth currently stored in the Malfoy vault at Gringotts. I wish to receive a personal letter, delivered to Hogwarts, acknowledging that fact.

Second, please continue to allow Lady Malfoy to make any reasonable withdrawls and show all the courtesy to which a customer of Gringotts is due. Reasonable withdrawals shall total no more than 400 Galleons monthly. Please send a copy of all transactions to me at Hogwarts.

Third, Lady Malfoy shall be allowed into the vault, but may not remove any magical artifacts from said vault without my prior approval. Non-magical trinkets and all ladies jewelry is pre-approved, and I will send a complete list after my inventory, which I will conduct over the Christmas break. Please let me know the days & hours that Griphook would be available to assist.

You will receive an Owl from my solicitor, confirming this instruction and requesting copies of all relevant correspondence.

Draco Malfoy, Heir and Acting Lord of House Malfoy.

Draco read over the letter, checking his wording from the template his solicitor had provided, then sealed it, and placed it on his desk.

He didn't wake up Tanuxa, she'd get to it later, after her morning hunt.

Draco, Gregory and Harry were walking back from another session of the Bayesian Conspiracy when Harry, feet automatically moving him back to his room, woke up from his reverie and ask "Draco, How long is a good plot? I mean, a good plot should be short, but what's the longest that a good plot has lasted?"

Gregory just shook his head. He'd gotten used to the odd questions that Harry sometimes asked, but that didn't make them any less odd.

"You aren't just counting feuds are you? Those can last centuries, but aren't really plots. As you point out, shorter is usually better. Some plans just take time to come to fruition, you can't grow a plant any faster than it grows, so if you need a branch off a hundred year old oak planted on a full moon then you have to wait a hundred years. Some plots just take time."

"I'm not counting that," said Harry, "I'm talking about a long term strategy that requires active planning and modification."

Draco thought about it.

"Well, dynastic maneuvering lasts generations, and never really ends. Just the Noble Houses fighting for position."

"No, I'm not counting that either. That's a zero-sum social game. I'm talking about something with a beginning, middle and end."

"OK, I can think of several that stretch out a decade. Maybe two. Typically any play based on history will cover a plot that long, but those are probably embellished. Mellar's plans before he even arrived at Castle Black are rumored to have taken well over a century, but that story predates Merlin and supposedly all of the participants were a thousand years old. And he got thwarted anyway. It's tough to plot out a century, how could he know someone who was barely fifty would intervene? So, discounting that," Draco chewed on his lip for a second,"I'd put the upper limit at maybe twenty five years. For serious plots, not career climbing or dynasty. Even twenty years is rare. Pretty much any good plot of that length becomes a play, although I suppose it's just barely possible that someone pulled off something better without ever bragging, even on their deathbed."

"That makes sense," Harry said, "Professor Asimov has one of his stories about a plotter who can predict the future and plans out thousands of years, but it's just a story, and even then he has people actively modifying it after he dies. I think he has a line 'To succeed, planning is not sufficient, one must improvise as well.' I had given a range of ten to thirty years, so it's good that your number matches with mine."

"Why do you ask," Gregory piped in.

"Oh, I was just wondering what the record was," said Harry.