Clinton at a rally in West Pam Beach in March. | AP Photo/Lynne Sladky Clinton leads Trump by 3 in new Florida poll Republican hurt by Hispanic vote and Libertarian entry

Hillary Clinton holds a 3-point lead over Donald Trump in a new Florida poll that shows Hispanics are helping the Democrat and also that the newly named Libertarian presidential candidate might be hurting the Republican.

Clinton’s 45-42 percent lead over Trump in the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey resembles other recent Florida polls that showed a close race between the two. However, unlike other Florida surveys, Mason-Dixon polled Libertarian Gary Johnson for the first time in the state and found he comes in a distant third, with 6 percent.


In a state known for close top-of-the-ticket races, Johnson’s relatively small support could have big consequences.

“Clinton is gaining her edge in two key areas – some defections from Trump to Johnson among white Republican and independent voters and extremely strong support for her among Hispanics (68%),” Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker wrote in a memo for the poll of 625 likely voters. Its error margin is 4 points.

Trump’s standing among Hispanics has been abysmal in nearly every recent poll taken in Florida, where 15 percent of the registered voters are Latino. Clinton does even better among black voters, who are about 14 percent of the voter rolls and back her over Trump by 90-4 percent.

But non-Hispanic whites, who account for about 66 percent of Florida’s voter rolls, are solidly with Trump. They favor him 55-31 percent in the survey.

The survey showed Clinton had slightly stronger support among fellow Democrats than Trump did among Republicans. However, Trump has a small 40-34 percent lead over Clinton among independents. There’s a stark gender gap as well. Clinton leads Trump by 21 points among women voters and Trump leads Clinton by 19 points among men.

In the unlikely event Clinton chose U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson as a running mate, 17 percent said the pick would make them more likely to support her, 11 percent said less likely and 72 percent said it would make no difference.

“Nelson doesn’t appear to pay big dividends for Clinton,” Coker said in his memo. “He does have a small net positive effect amongst independent and undecided voters, but it appears to be marginal. Still, he certainly would do no damage and could make the difference in a one or two-point race.”

When it comes to Trump’s ticket, Gov. Rick Scott does more harm than good.

“Scott could be toxic for Trump in the state,” Coker wrote. “A whopping 40% of Florida voters say they would be ‘less likely’ to vote for Trump with Scott on the ticket.” Still, 53 percent said Scott’s selection would make no difference in their decision.

Coker also considered another possibility in gaming out his survey: the fallout from the investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server as U.S. Secretary of State.

“With the possibility of an indictment by the FBI regarding the use of her private e-mail server for State Department business still hanging in the air, another Democrat could become the party’s nominee before November,” Coker wrote. “In that event, it is clear that Vice President Joe Biden would be the strongest candidate to replace her and that current opponent Bernie Sanders would create problems. In a hypothetical match-up, Biden holds a strong lead over Trump (50%-40%), while Sanders can only muster a 42%-42% tie.”