Revealing “true” accuracy, and evolving predictions

At this point in time it is important to recall precisely what the Cindicator platform offers. As clearly, and eloquently phrased in the FAQ section of the Cindicator Website, “each indicator or index is not an unambiguous trading signal, but only an additional metric in the market that helps in the analysis of an investment decision.”

As such is the case, by paying close attention to these additional metrics over time, it stands to reason that one can learn how to more effectively interpret indicators, and subsequently utilize them in their decision making.

This became my goal. To learn how to best interpret indicators, and when to act upon them.

Chart comparing tier values and costs assuming 50,000 CND ownership at different price points. Dynamic spreadsheet can be accessed here and copied for personal use.

Having attempted to accumulate tokens in the 20–30 cent range, I understood just how quickly one could get priced out of the higher tiers (as the above chart reveals), and after noticing Cindicator had experienced a significant pullback to the 6–7 cent range, I began working toward accumulating as much as possible — selling my mining equipment in the process.

Now, I don’t profess to be an expert trader myself, nor do I claim to be an expert in utilizing indicators in my trading — quite simply my endeavor began as the result of a desire to track the accuracy of predictions in real-time. As I started to focus more attention on the results of expired indicators, I began to wonder just exactly what “accurate” meant.

Examining all 13 indicators concerning the cumulative market capitalization included in the released 2018Q1 data reveals that 11 (85%) indicators were accurate, with only two “inaccurate” predictions. The January 18th indicator, and the following Beginner Tier Indicator sent on March 15th, 2018.

The cryptocurrency Market Capitalization settled at USD 312B at 6 AM UTC on March 15. In your opinion, will the Market cap rise above 360B at any time before March 22? Indicator: 65.52% How do I interpret the results?

[65%...80%] - a high probability indicator; the probability of the event happening is high

At this point, I had begun keeping track of the accuracy of indicators in real-time, creating a prediction log to monitor outcomes of the “Explorer” Tier— and I had started to notice something. Certain high probability indicators, while the events themselves did not occur, came very close to the targeted values. I decided as part of my accuracy analysis to quantify in percentage terms how close certain “inaccurate” indicators came toward reaching their targets. In the case of the above indicator, according to coinmarketcap.com the cumulative cryptocurrency market capitalization peaked at approximately $3.56B on March 21st — one day prior to the expiration of the indicator.

Percent change formula

Using a simple percent change calculation, where V1 is the actual value, and V0 is the target value, we can quantify how close the actual value came to the target.

Plugging in the 360B target and the peak market capitalization of 3.56207B (3/21, 15:32 UTC) between March 15th and March 22nd, the formula is as follows.

The math indicates that the peak market capitalization during the time-frame of the indicator came within less than 1.1% of the predicted target, and while inaccurate on a binary scale, the close proximity to the targeted value is striking. As far as Cindicator’s published accuracy statistics, proximity to the predicted values is not considered. The only truly inaccurate indicator concerning the cumulative market capitalization, was the extremely bullish indicator preceded by Bitcoin’s price falling below $10,000 for the first time since early December, when sentiment was near all time highs.