The US economy has seen the biggest one-month surge in recession risk in three decades as consumers start to buckle under higher credit costs, top economists have warned.

The probability of a contraction in the US has jumped to 73pc from 24pc in December, a model by UBS has revealed. The sudden surge was driven by a collapse in spending on durable goods such as cars, furniture and kitchen appliances, the “strongest recession predictive power”, it said.

A sudden deterioration in the health of American consumers would pose a major threat to world economy, which is already slowing. They accounted for 17pc of world GDP in 2018, larger than any other component including China’s GDP, according to Deutsche Bank.

Economists fear that the weight of higher US interest rates is beginning to bite. Credit card rates have hit their highest level in decades while US banks have reported that demand for credit cards, car financing loans and other consumer loans has dropped off sharply in recent months.

“The weakness in the data is now fully consistent with a very real risk of a recession, whether one happens or not,” warned UBS economist Pierre Lafourcade.

The US has managed to resist the global slowdown, thanks partly to Donald Trump’s tax cuts. However, a slew of soft housing data has caused concern, business sentiment has plunged and figures on Friday indicated that the US labour market has stumbled.