23:05

‘I want to ask Nate Silver why his methodology is so flawed’

I started the evening at an election watch party where the mood was jubilant; people were celebrating; Clinton was definitely going to win. A couple of hours later, things have swung steadily in Trump’s direction. I’m at a different watch party, at the Wing, an upscale women’s member club in Manhattan; it’s starting to feel less like a party and more like group therapy. Many of the well dressed women here seem to be in the process of biting their nails off.

Audrey Gelman and Lauren Kassan Photograph: Arwa Mahdawi/The Guardian

“I don’t think I can eat or drink anything,” says one woman, flustered, standing in front of a slick bar covered in pizza slices and bottles of wine. “I’m too nervous.”

“I want to ask Nate Silver, whose website I’ve been checking religiously, why his methodology is so flawed,” Audrey Gelman, co-founder of The Wing tells me. There’s a collective sense of incredulity, almost anger, that the polls were so wrong.

Gelman says she’s “frightened” by the prospect of a Trump presidency, particularly considering the disturbing “levels of vitriol and misogyny in this campaign.” Still, she says, she’s comforted by the fact that she’s in this space, “surrounded by hundreds of women.”

Inside The Wing Photograph: The Guardian

If Hillary loses will it set women’s rights back? I ask Lauren Kassan, co-founder of the Wing. Kassan doesn’t think so; “women are going to come together more than ever and it’s why [women-only] spaces like this are even more important.”

The Virginia call comes in and, shortly after, it’s announced that Clinton is still projected to win. A big cheer goes up. You can practically feel the tension break. The volume in the room goes up. People start eating the pizza again. No one is getting too comfortable though. It’s very clear that if tonight ends in a victory for Hillary it’s going to have been a lot closer than anyone predicted.