Malcolm Turnbull’s 30th straight Newspoll loss, the same benchmark for failure he set for Tony Abbott, also marks a bitter 127th defeat under his leadership.

The much-anticipated opinion poll, published in The Australian on Sunday night, showed the Coalition trailing 48-52 on a two-party preferred basis as the government clawed back ground compared to the six-point margin from a fortnight ago.

The Coalition led Labor on the primary vote by one point, 38 per cent to 37 per cent, with the government gaining a point and Labor’s primary vote falling by two percentage points.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten closed the gap on the preferred PM measure, which Mr Turnbull now leads by only two points.

The poll, conducted between April 5-8 as Mr Turnbull faced an insurgency from a pro-coal group of Coalition MPs including Mr Abbott, also found voter satisfaction with Mr Turnbull was unchanged from last fortnight.

The Turnbull government has not won a Newspoll since the July 2016 election. The government has only been in front in nine of the 60 Newspolls since Mr Turnbull took the leadership in September 2015.

But Sunday’s result is not just the 30th Newspoll the government has lost to Labor since the election.

Major polling companies Newspoll, Ipsos, Essential, ReachTel and YouGov have conducted 138 surveys since the 2016 election.

Of those, the Turnbull government trailed Labor in 127, and tied 50-50 with Labor six times.

It has won only five polls, all conducted by the UK polling firm YouGov between June and October 2017. Those polls allowed respondents to nominate their own preferences.

The government has consistently performed better under this format than in polls based on 2016 preference flows, which pollsters generally regard to be a more reliable measure.

An Ipsos poll, published in Fairfax Media on Saturday, found the government behind Labor 52-48 on two-party terms, but tied at 50-50 when voters directed their own preferences.

Mr Turnbull, who noted the Abbott government had lost 30 Newspolls when he took the leadership in 2015, will be in Sydney on Monday to face inevitable questions about his leadership.

According to Newspoll, he stands one point ahead of Julie Bishop as preferred Liberal leader on 28 per cent, while Mr Abbott (13 per cent) and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton (9 per cent) find themselves well behind their moderate counterparts.

As the dreaded poll approached, Mr Turnbull sought to emphasise the strength of the economy, while noting he retained the support of the Liberal party room.

He has also said he regretted referring to the 30 Newspolls figure during his challenge to Mr Abbott.

Speaking to reporters as he took part in the annual Pollie Pedal charity bike ride on Sunday, Mr Abbott said he believed “none of us should live in the past or dwell on things”.

Asked if he was involved in a challenge to the Prime Minister, he replied: “Nope.”

The former PM had previously said Mr Turnbull should be expected to explain why the benchmark set for Mr Abbott should not also apply to himself.

Mr Abbott told News Corp on Sunday his colleagues should explain their decision, while saying “life is not fair”.

On Monday, Mr Abbott will ride through the Latrobe Valley, including past the mothballed Hazelwood power station, and will meet workers and electricity companies as part of his pro-coal push.

Government ministers backed Mr Turnbull publicly as the 30th Newspoll approached, including Scott Morrison, who ascended to the treasurership when Mr Turnbull took over in 2015.

“Monday, whatever the result is, will come and will go like every poll, and guess what the government will keep doing? The work it has been elected to do,” Mr Morrison said.

Announcing he would challenge Mr Abbott for the leadership in September 2015, Mr Turnbull said: “The one thing that is clear about our current situation is the trajectory.

“We have lost 30 Newspolls in a row. It is clear that the people have made up their mind about Mr Abbott’s leadership.”