Series Preview: Looking at who has the Upper Hand in battle between East and West

When it comes to baseball supremacy, Missouri may be the best state in the Union (this year). So with the I-70 series upon us, I thought I would do a little East Side vs. West Side analysis. In order to do so, I will try my hardest to take my bias out of the mix, as well as the sense of entitlement that comes with all things St. Louis. So here is the closest thing to a scientific breakdown of two baseball teams as I can get (I am a scientist after all).

Starting Pitching

This is an easy one to figure, and one that we have to base in the here and now. St. Louis Starters are throwing a league leading 3.07 ERA, and are tied for second in wins at 17 (and this is without their former pitcher Shelby Miller who is currently leading the MLB in ERA at 1.33*). The Cardinals currently have 3 starters with sub 3 ERA's, Michael Wacha (2.13), Lance Lynn (2.96) and John Lackey (2.96). Oh and those just so happen to be the guys they will be throwing this weekend.

The Royals on the other hand have a team ERA of 4.21, which has just come down from the near 5's after 24 consecutive innings of shut-out baseball. In fact, Royals starters haven't given up a run in almost a week, a trend that is not likely to continue, but a welcome sight after the shaky start. The Royals Chris Young will bring his 0.94 ERA to the bump Friday as he continues to throw his "invisiball" to some of the games best. Edinson Volquez is next on the Royals with a 2.74 ERA, He and Wacha will square off on Sunday for the series finale. Danny Duffy will be taking the mound on Saturday with is 5.87 ERA, in what may be a make or break start. Duffy has been anything but consistent this season, and with Jason Vargas coming off the DL this week, Duffy is on the block, and could pitch with a little more incentive than usual.

*Chris Young currently doesn't qualify for starting pitching stats due to minimum inning.

Advantage: St. Louis

Bull-Pen

This should be an easy one, the Royals are the gold-standard when it comes to relievers. Everyone is measured against them. But this year, the Cardinals come in with an amazing bull-pen of their won. The Cardinals are actually leading the Royals in K's/9 (8.37) , HR's/9 (.47), Saves (17) and even (1.8) WAR from the pen. The two teams are nearly Identical in innings pitched (134-134.1) which is impressive with the disparity in starters ERA. So this is why I think the Royals still have the better bull-pen. If you look at inherited runners left on base, which is a vital stat for your bullpen, the Royals are at 88.4% LOB (tops in the bigs). This stat essentially tells the tale of the pressure in the inning, and how that inning turned out. This means that 9 times out of 10 if any member of the Royals bullpen comes into a game with are runner on, no matter what base or how many outs, that runner will still be on base when the inning ends. That is case enough, but the Royals bullpen also has the best ERA in the bigs at 1.61. This essentially means once every 3 games the royals are going to give up a run from the pen if they pitch approximately 3 innings. And the last facts are the intangibles, The reputation of "HGH" in the 7,8, and 9th, is something that every single hitter in both leagues know, and there is a real sense of "Game Over" whenever they are handed the ball.

Advantage: Kansas City

First Base:

When you have a first baseman in the top 3 of nearly all statistical categories playing first base, you tend to win the advantage on this one. Eric Hosmer is currently 2nd in all of MLB in WAR (1.9) behind only Adrian Gonzales. And pair that with two consecutive gold gloves, and you have a total package at first. The Cardinals have been doing some platooning at first, but Matt Adams seems to be the one who has plopped there most often, with Mark Reynolds second. Currently Adams is hitting .244 with an OBP of .274 he is registering 2 full points below Hosmer with a WAR of -.1.

Advantage: Kansas City

Second Base:

In what is almost as lop-sided an arguement as first base, the young star, Kolten Wong has taken over as one of the best second basemen in the league. Currently hitting .309, with 5 dingers, and 22 RBI's Wong is producing big time at the back half of the order. After a breakout post-season in '14, Wong is following that up with what appears to be a solid 2015 campaign. The Royals have Omar Infante plugging up the middle, and though he has had some timely RBI's lately, he is still hitting only hitting .264 with 0 bombs and 17 RBI's. There was a time a few years ago this would have been a tight fight. But that is no-longer the case.

Advantage: St. Louis

Shortstop

The old adage "No Range No Errors" is not one you usually associate with shortstops. But in the case of Jhonny Peralta, it is very fitting. Im not sure if it is the lack of steroids, or just age catching up, but Peralta has some terrible range. Because of this he always is at the top of the league in Fielding percentage. This increases his WAR, and gives him a statistical advantage in this category. But if you use a more telling sabermetric stat UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) you will see that Escobar covers far more ground. Peralta has a UZR of .6, where Escobar is about 4 times that at 2.5. He also accounts for almost 2 full runs more in Defensive runs saves at 3.3 according to fangraphs. Offensively though Peralta swings a bigger stick. That is for sure. Peralta is currently hitting .296, with 6 homers, and 21 RBIs for the Cards. Where Alcides is hitting .295 with 1 homer and 15 RBIs. Seeing that these numbers are somewhat similar, and Peralta is a middle of the order guy, where Escobar is a lead-off guy it is tough to compare as they are trying to do different things. However, the one advantage I see is Escobar has missed some time due to a bean ball to the dome, and the dirtiest slide since Matt Holliday last October. So with the fact he has finally been healthy for a few weeks, and his defense is that much better, I go Escobar here.

Advantage: Kansas City

Third Base

In my eyes this is the toughest battle on the diamond. In one corner you have Matt Carpenter. A quality player at a number of positions. He is on pace to break his career homerun total for a season by June. And in the other corner you have Mike Moustakas. A guy currently hitting over .120 points higher than at the same time last year. Both are gold glove caliber fielders, and both are having great years. And both have identical WARs at 1.9. Too often we break things down to the what have you done for me lately. And in that case I would definitely give it to Moose. But over a total body of work Matt Carpenter is going to win out on this one just for the fact he has always done it. so I will have to say even though it hurts me deep down in that one place…..

Advantage: St. Louis

Catcher

In what is likely to be the most fun battle to watch this weekend, we will see the king, and the heir apparent protecting the plate. Salvador Perez is for all practical purposes, the new Yadi. Yadier Molina has been the best catcher over the past decade hands down. But lately the pupil is starting to surpass the teacher. Hitting .290 with 5 bombs and 22 homers, Salvy is well rested, and putting together his best total season. But not to be out done Yadi is hitting .294. He has 0 bombs, and 15 RBI's. Though his power numbers may be down a bit, Yadi is definitely still a guy you hate to see come up with the game on the line if you are in the opposing dugout. Defensively these two are a lot of fun to watch. Both sling the ball around the bases at any time, and both have a reputation for not running on them. Currently Yadi is second in Innings caught at 324, behind only…you guessed it, Salvy at 355. Salvy also has bested Yadi in the caught stealing department nabbing 12 runners, where Yadi is at 7 (this is partly on reputation…people don't usually run on Yadi). But the part that will set these two apart is the Yadi is a full run behind Salvy in defensive runs saved according to Fangraphs at 3.8 vs. 4.8

Advantage: Kansas City

Right Field

This is a field that is reasonably hard to chose a side. On one end you have a guy that doesn't seem to ever feel pressure at the plate, and has found his way on base in EVERY game this season, in Matt Holiday. But on the other you have a guy who is widely considered the best defensive Left Fielder in the game in Alex Gordon. Gordon's UZR is an impressive 4.2…..and I can't find Matt Holliday's. Holliday is hitting .328 with a 442 OBP however. Gordon is behind that at .266 with a .375 obp. So with those two disparities I will leave it up to FanGraphs ultimate decider….WAR. Alex Gordon has a 1.3 WAR, where Matt Holliday is at 1.1.

Advantage: Kansas City

Center Field :

Jon Jay is Injured….but even that wouldn't matter. Lorenzo Cain has 14.4 Defensive Runs Saved…that is more than half the teams in the MLB. Pair that with batting .306, and leading the team with 7 stolen bases, and you have the easiest winner in the bunch.

Advantage: Kansas City

Right Field

This is probably the spot on the diamond both teams would like to see improve the most. And both teams went out in the offseason and made some major moves to do so. Jason Heyward was brought over for Shelby Miller in the offseason from Atlanta, with the hopes of plugging the void left in Right. Heyward is currently hitting .244, and has started platooning a bit. That being said the Royals brought in Alex Rios in the offseason to add some pop to their corner outfield, but pitch off his hand in Minnesota earlier in the year has sidelined him after only 8 games. The Royals have used a righty/lefty platoon themselves with Paulo Orlando (KC3PO) and Jarrod (That's what speed do) Dyson in right this season. This twosome has amassed 7 triples, and 7 stolen bases this year, but collectively are hitting around .205. Due to the offensive threat of Heyward, I have to give it to him on this one.

Advantage: St. Louis

Since this game will be played in an American League we will have to look at DH:

DH:

My best guess is that the Cardinals will go with their recent addition of Mark Reynolds. Reynolds has the record for most strikeouts in a season, However, this year he has been much better in that department only striking out 33 times so far. He is currently hitting .258 and has 3 bombs. The Royals DH is the newly resurrected Kendrys Morales. Morales almost has as many RBI's as Reynolds has K's with 32. He is currently 2nd in the A.L. and touts a .294 average with 15 doubles.

Advantage: Kansas City

Overall

I think it is safe to say there are some positions that are a bit more valuable, like Starting Pitcher, and at Catcher. So even though the tally went 7-4 the way of the Royals. I think Starting Pitching maybe worth two or three points there. In my opinion these teams are incredibly evenly matched, and it will be the defense of the Royals that will put them ahead. But hey this is why they play the games, and why the best two teams in the MLB are in the SHOW-ME STATE!

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