Voters go to the polls Tuesday for primaries in eight states where candidates and outside groups have already spent nearly $200 million.

Most eyes will be on California, especially for Democrats, as the party looks to flip three or more Republican-held House seats starting Tuesday.

However, California has a “jungle” primary where all candidates appear on the same ballot and the top two advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. And some of those races are packed with Democrats who could splinter the vote, leading to an all-Republican election in November.

Here are races to watch in next week’s primaries.

Alabama

In Alabama, Republicans hold six of the state’s seven congressional districts; one is facing a substantial in-house threat in the primary.

In the Second District, Bobby Bright is seeking to reclaim his former House seat now held by incumbent Rep. Martha Roby. Despite the odds, Democrats are also eyeing Roby’s seat in the afterglow of Sen. Doug Jones’ special election upset last year. Only two Democrats are running in Tuesday’s primary; just one has raised at least $100,000.

California

In California, seven of the state’s 53 House districts are considered competitive (either toss-ups or leaning toward one party), according to Cook Political Report. Of those, five are toss-ups held by Republicans, including two open seats in the 39th and 49th Districts.

10th District

Five Democrats have spent a combined $1.9 million for the right to face incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham. Josh Harder, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, has raised $1.5 million and spent $1.1 million, topping his opponents in both categories.

25th District

Three of the four Democratic candidates are women, two of whom posted strong fundraising. Katie Hill raised $1.4 million and received $165,000 in support from outside spending groups; Jess Phoenix raised about $426,000. The lone male Democrat — Bryan Caforio — also raised over $1.1 million in a toss-up race with Republican incumbent Rep. Steve Knight.

39th District

Thirteen candidates have spent a combined $10.6 million for the open seat of retiring Rep. Darrell Issa (R), including $9 million from Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has endorsed philanthropist Gil Cisneros, who’s spent $3.9 million and been supported by another $828,000 in outside spending, mostly by the DCCC. However, two more Democrats — Andy Thorburn and Mai Khanh Tran — have also spent seven figures. Republican primary candidates have lagged behind in spending, with $1.5 million split among seven candidates. Young Kim leads in both spending ($641,000) and outside support ($396,000).

48th District

Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher will face nine challengers in his Newport Beach-area district including a strong in-party challenger. Republican Scott Baugh’s $1.54 million in spending and outside support bested Rohrabacher’s $1.49 million. On the Democratic side, Hans Keirstead, who was endorsed by the California Democratic Party, leads the field with $1.4 million spent (plus $126,000 in outside support); Harley Rouda, who was endorsed by the DCCC, is second with $1.3 million.

49th District

Among California’s competitive House districts, San Diego real estate investor Paul Kerr is the top spender with $4 million. But fellow Democrat Sara Jacobs isn’t far behind the money-race, thanks to $2.2 million in outside support.

Iowa

In 2016, Trump won each of the swing state’s four congressional districts after Barack Obama won three of the districts four years earlier. In November, Democrats are seeking to flip two of those three districts.

First District

Democrat Abby Finkenauer has raised almost as much as incumbent Rep. Rod Blum, one of the most vulnerable House Republicans. Finkenauer, a member of Iowa’s statehouse, has spent roughly $760,000, or roughly three times as much as the next closest Democrat, Thomas Heckroth.

Third District

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The Democratic Party has endorsed Cindy Axne in the primary for a run at Republican incumbent Rep. David Young. Axne, an activist and business owner, has been supported by over $226,000 in outside spending from the Northwest Des Moines Democrats.

Montana

In Montana, Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte appears to be a lock to hold the state’s lone House seat after winning last year’s special election.

But Montana Republicans are taking a big-money swing at Sen. Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent. Tester, a two-term senator, is the early odds-on favorite to retain his seat, but it is no guarantee in a state that a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won since Bill Clinton in 1992.

Republican Matt Rosendale appears to be the favorite in Tuesday’s primary, with nearly $2 million in outside support including a combined $1.1 million from the conservative super PACs Club for Growth Action and Restoration PAC. Fellow Republican Troy Downing outspent Rosendale, however, dropping nearly $1.4 million ahead of the primary to Rosendale’s $816,000.

New Jersey

In New Jersey, where the Democrats control both Senate seats and the governorship, the party is seeking to flip as many as four competitive House districts, including two open seats left by retiring Republicans Frank LoBiondo (Second District) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (11th District).

Second District

Jeff Van Drew has outraised ($632,000) and outspent ($219,000) each of his Democratic primary opponents by a wide margin. Patriot Majority USA, a liberal outside group, added about $51,000 to his cause. In the Republican primary, none of the candidates have spent more than $100,000 in a race leaning Democrat.

Seventh District

The race is a toss-up, with Republican incumbent Rep. Leonard Lance in danger of losing a seat he’s held since 2008. Democrat Tom Malinowski raised $1.2 million, doubling the fundraising of his two primary opponents. Malinowski, a former assistant secretary of state under Obama, has nearly matched Lance in fundraising.

11th District

Ten Democratic and Republican primary candidates are vying for Frelinghuysen’s open seat in this toss-up race. Democrat Mikie Sherrill has spent nearly $1 million on the primary, with Tamara Harris’ $691,000 in second. None of the five Republican primary candidates has spent aggressively on the primary, with Peter De Neufville ($183,000) and Jay Webber ($176,000) leading the pack.

New Mexico

In New Mexico, an open seat in the Second District is leaning Republican in November while another in the First District is all but certain to go to whoever wins the Democratic primary.

First District

Just a single Republican has spent money — about $60,000 — so the winner of the six-candidate Democratic primary is likely headed to Washington. Antoinette Sedillo Lopez paced candidates in spending with $767,000. (Two others spent at least $500,000.) Sedillo Lopez also secured $534,000 in outside spending from the Latino Victory PAC. Damon Martinez, however, has been backed by more than $1 million in outside spending.

Second District

Republicans Monty Newman and Yvette Herrell have spent roughly $826,000 combined. Herrell, a state House member, was also backed by about $170,000 in outside spending, mostly from the conservative Our Values PAC. On the Democratic side, Xochitl Torres Small has raised about $500,000 in the two-candidate primary, with another $165,000 in outside support from the Committee for Hispanic Causes-BOLD PAC.

South Dakota

In South Dakota’s lone House seat, the Republican primary is another winner-take-all race as Democrats have little chance to take this open seat. The frontrunners in the GOP primary are Dusty Johnson and Shantel Krebs, who have spent $481,000 and $409,000, respectively. The super PAC Citizens for a Strong America, however, has spent over $267,000 opposing Krebs in the primary.

Mississippi

Like in South Dakota, the winner of the Republican primary in the Mississippi’s Third District is all but guaranteed a November win. Three candidates have spent six-figure sums on the open-seat race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Gregg Harper.



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