February 28, 2019 - Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke Tie Trump In Texas, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Cornyn, O'Rourke In Dead Heat In 2020 Senate Matchup

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In a very early look at possible 2020 presidential matchups in Texas, President Donald Trump is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders or former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. President Trump leads other possible Democratic contenders by small margins.





Hypothetical matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:

President Trump at 47 percent, including 41 percent of independent voters, to Biden's 46 percent, including 46 percent of independent voters;

Trump at 47 percent, including 41 percent of independent voters, to Sanders' 45 percent, including 48 percent of independent voters;

Trump at 47 percent, including 41 percent of independent voters, to O'Rourke's 46 percent, including 48 percent of independent voters.

Trump has leads, driven mainly by a shift among independent voters, over other possible Democratic candidates:

46 - 41 percent over former San Antonio Mayor and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro;

48 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California;

48 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Biden, Sanders and O'Rourke share similar support among Democrats and voters 18 - 34 years old.





"The 2020 presidential race in Texas, and how some of Democrats stack up against President Donald Trump, begins as a two-tiered contest. There are three more well-known contenders who run evenly against President Donald Trump. Another group, less well-known, are just a little behind Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"Former Vice President Joe Biden has the highest favorability of any of the contenders and has a better net favorability than President Trump," Brown added. "Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke also does relatively well on favorability and in a matchup with Trump, but that may well be due to O'Rourke being a home-state favorite.





"But former Housing Secretary Julian Castro, who is also a former San Antonio mayor, does not do as well as O'Rourke."





Among Texas voters, 47 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, with 49 percent unfavorable. Favorability ratings for possible Democratic challengers are:

Biden: 48 - 38 percent;

Sanders: Negative 41 - 47 percent;

O'Rourke: Divided 44 - 40 percent;

Harris: Negative 24 - 33 percent;

Warren: Negative 27 - 42 percent;

Castro: Divided 23 - 27 percent;

U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey: 51 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion;

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg: 53 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion;

U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 68 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion;

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 70 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Texas Senate Race





In an early look at the 2020 U.S. Senate race in Texas, Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and possible Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke are tied 46 - 46 percent. Independent voters go to O'Rourke 47 - 40 percent.





From February 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,222 Texas voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 46% 7% 96% 46% 41% 51% 37% 27% Trump 47 90 2 41 52 42 54 70 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 5 2 1 8 4 5 6 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 56% 50% 41% 40% 29% 35% 32% 86% 58% Trump 34 44 53 56 64 60 62 8 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 - 1 2 1 2 - 2 DK/NA 6 3 5 3 3 4 4 5 7

2. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Sanders 45% 5% 93% 48% 40% 50% 33% 28% Trump 47 92 3 41 52 42 57 69 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 2 3 4 2 DK/NA 4 1 1 5 4 4 4 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Sanders 59% 50% 37% 36% 27% 34% 31% 83% 56% Trump 33 42 55 58 66 59 63 8 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 4 2 5 2 3 2 3 4 6

3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No O'Rourke 46% 6% 95% 48% 42% 51% 35% 26% Trump 47 91 3 41 52 41 57 69 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 2 2 - DK/NA 4 3 2 6 4 5 4 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp O'Rourke 56% 52% 41% 38% 28% 34% 31% 86% 59% Trump 34 43 53 58 66 59 63 7 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 - - 1 1 1 - 2 DK/NA 6 2 4 4 3 5 4 6 5

4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Harris 41% 3% 91% 39% 34% 48% 33% 25% Trump 48 93 3 43 54 43 57 70 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 3 7 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 5 2 2 9 6 5 5 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Harris 50% 42% 39% 36% 25% 33% 29% 75% 51% Trump 37 45 54 57 66 61 63 10 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 - 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 2 2 3 1 2 8 4 DK/NA 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 7 9

5. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Elizabeth Warren the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Warren 41% 5% 89% 39% 35% 47% 33% 23% Trump 48 90 4 44 53 43 58 70 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 6 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 6 3 3 9 6 6 4 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Warren 51% 43% 38% 34% 23% 33% 28% 81% 50% Trump 37 43 54 58 67 60 64 7 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 2 2 4 2 3 3 4 DK/NA 7 7 4 4 5 3 4 8 11

6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Julian Castro the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Castro 41% 5% 89% 39% 37% 45% 33% 22% Trump 46 90 3 40 51 42 57 69 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 8 3 5 13 8 9 5 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Castro 48% 45% 39% 34% 25% 31% 28% 79% 51% Trump 34 42 53 58 65 61 63 6 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 - 2 3 2 2 4 2 DK/NA 12 7 6 5 5 5 5 10 14

7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and John Cornyn the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No O'Rourke 46% 5% 94% 47% 40% 51% 36% 27% Cornyn 46 89 4 40 50 41 56 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 6 3 3 10 6 7 4 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp O'Rourke 61% 47% 39% 37% 28% 35% 32% 79% 58% Cornyn 27 44 55 58 64 57 60 9 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 2 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 - 1 2 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 11 5 6 3 3 6 4 12 8

8. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 47% 89% 5% 41% 52% 42% 54% 70% Unfavorable 49 9 93 54 44 55 43 28 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 37% 40% 55% 56% 64% 59% 62% 11% 33% Unfavorable 60 56 43 41 33 38 36 87 61 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 - 5 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2

9. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 48% 17% 84% 52% 47% 48% 45% 36% Unfavorable 38 72 4 31 41 34 45 55 Hvn't hrd enough 12 8 10 16 8 17 8 9 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 53% 48% 46% 44% 41% 39% 40% 77% 51% Unfavorable 28 34 43 47 53 47 50 5 26 Hvn't hrd enough 17 14 10 8 6 11 8 15 20 REFUSED 2 4 1 1 1 2 1 3 3

10. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 41% 12% 75% 45% 41% 41% 31% 28% Unfavorable 47 84 11 41 52 43 62 66 Hvn't hrd enough 10 4 11 13 6 14 5 6 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 59% 43% 33% 29% 28% 31% 29% 66% 54% Unfavorable 32 44 55 58 67 61 64 10 30 Hvn't hrd enough 8 11 11 11 4 7 6 22 14 REFUSED 1 2 - 2 1 2 1 1 2

11. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 44% 11% 83% 45% 41% 46% 37% 26% Unfavorable 40 79 2 36 47 34 53 61 Hvn't hrd enough 15 10 13 18 10 19 9 13 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 57% 43% 40% 34% 31% 33% 32% 78% 52% Unfavorable 21 38 48 54 62 52 57 4 24 Hvn't hrd enough 21 17 12 11 6 15 11 18 22 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 - 1 - 2

12. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 24% 4% 54% 21% 23% 26% 20% 12% Unfavorable 33 61 4 30 41 25 42 43 Hvn't hrd enough 42 35 41 49 35 49 37 44 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 24% 27% 26% 21% 15% 18% 16% 60% 25% Unfavorable 20 32 39 42 50 35 42 9 24 Hvn't hrd enough 55 40 35 36 34 47 40 29 51 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 1

13. Is your opinion of Elizabeth Warren favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 27% 4% 60% 24% 22% 31% 25% 15% Unfavorable 42 75 7 40 51 33 56 56 Hvn't hrd enough 30 21 32 35 25 35 18 29 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 25% 27% 29% 26% 15% 24% 20% 54% 27% Unfavorable 24 43 48 55 63 49 56 10 28 Hvn't hrd enough 50 30 22 17 20 26 23 35 44 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 - 1 2 1

14. Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 19% 3% 41% 17% 17% 20% 19% 8% Unfavorable 29 52 3 30 37 21 40 39 Hvn't hrd enough 51 44 54 53 44 57 40 52 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 14% 22% 20% 18% 13% 14% 14% 48% 16% Unfavorable 13 27 36 42 49 31 40 3 18 Hvn't hrd enough 73 49 44 38 38 53 46 47 65 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 2 1 1 1

15. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 14% 7% 23% 15% 16% 12% 20% 6% Unfavorable 31 49 15 28 35 26 39 39 Hvn't hrd enough 53 42 59 55 46 59 39 52 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 7% 16% 17% 14% 16% 11% 13% 22% 11% Unfavorable 16 33 36 40 43 36 39 9 25 Hvn't hrd enough 76 49 45 42 39 51 45 68 62 REFUSED 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 1 2

16. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 10% 3% 19% 11% 10% 9% 9% 6% Unfavorable 22 38 5 19 26 18 31 27 Hvn't hrd enough 68 58 75 70 63 73 59 66 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 12% 6% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 14% 13% Unfavorable 8 17 26 35 34 25 29 5 12 Hvn't hrd enough 79 75 63 56 58 66 62 81 74 REFUSED - 2 - - 1 1 1 - 1

17. Is your opinion of Julian Castro favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 23% 5% 50% 19% 21% 24% 20% 11% Unfavorable 27 48 5 25 30 24 36 32 Hvn't hrd enough 49 46 43 56 48 50 42 56 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 24% 23% 24% 22% 15% 16% 15% 42% 32% Unfavorable 17 22 29 40 39 30 34 6 20 Hvn't hrd enough 59 53 46 36 46 53 49 51 46 REFUSED - 2 1 1 - 2 1 2 2

18. Is your opinion of Amy Klobuchar favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 11% 4% 23% 9% 12% 11% 14% 6% Unfavorable 17 31 2 15 19 15 24 24 Hvn't hrd enough 70 64 72 76 68 73 61 69 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 10% 8% 11% 17% 11% 10% 10% 23% 8% Unfavorable 8 13 23 26 27 22 24 2 10 Hvn't hrd enough 82 78 66 55 61 68 65 74 80 REFUSED - 2 - 2 1 1 1 2 2

19. Is your opinion of John Cornyn favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?