Win probability is an estimate based on the win percentage of every team that has been in a comparable time and score situation. We start with the basic time and score, then add or subtract win probability from each team depending on the recent sequence of plays and what that tells us about the likelihood that each team will score. Please, please, please do not treat this as a prediction. 90% win probability does not mean that the team has a 90% chance to win; it means that teams in the current situation have won 90% of the time. Win probabilities at the opening face-off are based on our current ELO ratings.