Christopher Doering

Great Falls Tribune

WASHINGTON — The unpopularity of presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton could provide a significant boost this November to Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson in Montana — a state that has long been receptive to third-party candidates.

“Johnson is likely to do better than any Libertarian candidate in American presidential history,” said Jeremy Johnson, associate professor of political science at Carroll College in Helena. He has benefited so far from "higher dissatisfaction with both of the major parties, but particularly Republican dissatisfaction with Trump."

Johnson, who was the Libertarian Party’s candidate in 2012, received about 3 percent of the vote that year in Montana. He trailed Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who collected 55 percent of votes, and President Barack Obama, who had 42 percent. But political analysts predict Johnson could more than double his 2012 total, and potentially top 10 percent if Trump's struggles continue.

“It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Johnson does better here than Libertarians have sometimes put up in the past,” said Robert Saldin, a political science professor at the University of Montana. “He actually does have a record he can point to as an executive in New Mexico, and that’s the kind of resume that a Libertarian presidential candidate doesn’t always bring to the table.”

Montana voters have shown in past elections that they will support candidates who do not represent the two major political parties.

Just four years ago, Libertarian candidate Dan Cox received 6.5 percent of the vote in Montana’s Senate race. Some political analysts speculated his strong showing prevented Republican Denny Rehberg from beating incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat. A similar outcome occurred in 1992 in Montana when Independent candidate Ross Perot received 26 percent of the votes, helping siphon off support from George H.W. Bush, who ultimately lost to Bill Clinton. Perot’s impact on the presidential race across the country was credited with helping Bill Clinton win the White House.

Nationwide, Johnson has shown signs of capitalizing on voter distaste for Trump and Clinton. In 2012, he collected just less than 1 percent of the popular vote. This month, a poll by The Economist/You Gov put his support at 7 percent. And earlier this week, Johnson announced his campaign had raised more than $2.9 million so far this month — more than it's total fundraising haul four years ago.

A major hurdle for Johnson will be to get at least 15 percent in national polls in order to be included in the presidential debates in September and October – a platform where he could reach more voters.

Mike Fellows, chairman of the Montana Libertarian Party, acknowledged Johnson has an uphill climb but said his messages on the war on drugs, privacy laws and other issues are resonating with Montana voters.

“He’s definitely gaining traction because people know who he is, and a lot of people are going to vote for him,” Fellows said. “If he gets into the debates … anything can happen. He doesn't have the millions and millions of dollars that Trump and Clinton have to spend.”

Still, it will be difficult for Johnson to win Montana, a state that historically has voted Republican in the presidential election, or garner enough support nationwide to influence the outcome.

“(Libertarians) do have a really dynamic presidential candidate, but the way our system is put together it just makes it so hard for the third-party to make any serious inroads,” Saldin said. “it would be absolutely shocking if he won any state, certainly including Montana.”

Contact Christopher Doering at cdoering@usatoday.com or reach him at Twitter: @cdoering