It’s December in Tampa Bay, and the coaching rumor mill churns yet again.

Like it or not, that’s the state the Buccaneers are in.

CBS Sports reported Sunday that Dirk Koetter is unlikely to return in 2019 and that the search process for his replacement is already under way.

Wonder what gave it away. The 5-9 record?

That the Glazer family has started gathering information on potential coaches hardly registers as a surprise, not even to Koetter. The man survived last season’s Grumors, remember? The greater surprise would be if the owners weren’t doing anything at all. Life in the NFL is fluid, so one would think that evaluations are ongoing, not periodic. Information gathering is due diligence. And if you're casting a wide enough net, word is probably going to get around, no matter how covert you try to be.

Koetter has been an NFL coach for 12 years. You might not like his play calls or his defense of the offensive line, but he’s not clueless. He has seen this movie before. He saw firsthand what happened to the last coach around here who didn’t win enough.

He isn’t pretending; we shouldn’t, either. Churn, baby, churn! Let’s get to talking about what’s ahead in 2019.

What type of coach should the Bucs pursue? Offensive-minded or defensive-minded?

If you’re not already sick of the phrase “the next Sean McVay,” you will be soon. Eight to 10 teams could have vacancies after the season, and several of them are going to be looking for a bright offensive mind like McVay’s.

And for good reason. In one season, McVay transformed the Rams offense from one of the least efficient into one of the most efficient. Also, if you’ve followed professional sports for any length of time, it’s not uncommon for owners and front office personnel to talk themselves into believing that they’re only a coach away. It’d be very much like the Bucs to think that way. Because they do.

If only we had a kicker. If only we had a cornerback. If only we had an ultrafast receiver. If only we had an edge rusher. If only. If only. If only.

The allure of such thinking is that you don’t have to confront the possibility that whatever you think you know is wrong. You can believe, at least for a little while longer, that you know what you are doing.

There are practical reasons for searching for the next McVay. Foremost, the units on a football team are not of equal importance. The total quality of an NFL team is four parts offense, three parts defense and one part special teams, according to Football Outsiders research. And that research doesn’t include data from this season, the most explosive season in NFL history. Thanks to offensive innovations and rule changes, as well as greater interest in data analysis, teams are going to set records for points, touchdowns, yards, yards per play, completion percentage and quarterback rating.

Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael will be high on some teams’ wish lists, as will former Packers coach Mike McCarthy. Former Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo was once a hot name, but his stock has fallen since Minnesota fired him Dec. 11 and is no longer considered a head-coaching candidate, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. If he was worth interviewing a week ago, though, why wouldn’t he be worth interviewing today? It’s not his fault that Creed superfan Kirk Cousins forgot that he could throw to Adam Thielen.

Today the @Creed Greatest Hits album was played during the team lift.

Today was a good day. — Kirk Cousins (@KirkCousins8) May 19, 2016

But the Bucs need the most help on the defensive side of the ball …

They do indeed. Tampa Bay ranks 28th against the pass and 30th against the run, according to Football Outsiders’ team efficiency ratings.

And if the Glazers’ history of coaching hires tells us anything — besides that they’re not very good at hiring coaches — it’s that they’re reactionary. Before Koetter, the calm and steady Lovie Smith was a counteraction to Greg “Toes on the line!” Schiano, who was a counteraction to lax players’ coach Raheem Morris, who was a counteraction to taskmaster Jon Gruden, who was a counteraction to the low-key Tony Dungy.

Even Koetter’s promotion in 2016 felt reactionary. An offensive coordinator helps a rookie quarterback rack up a couple thousand yards in garbage time, and suddenly you can’t let him get on a plane to Miami or San Francisco? The Glazers wanted continuity. They got continuity all right.

Their pattern (broadly) has been to alternate between offensive-minded and defensive-minded coaches, so if that pattern holds true this offseason, the next Bucs coach could very well be a defensive coordinator or assistant that you’ll be watching during the playoffs.

In an offseason in which the crowd will be looking for the next McVay, a defensive-minded coach might not be the misstep that it would seem to be. You don’t not consider a qualified candidate just because he hasn’t called a fake jet sweep. While everyone else is zigging, the Bucs could zag to Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz or Cowboys defensive backs coach Kris Richard. After all, the next best thing to a good pass offense is a good pass defense.

What about a trade?

It’s not all that far-fetched of an idea. Mike Florio of NBC Sports raised the possibility this week in regard to Ravens coach John Harbaugh, though he didn’t mention the Bucs directly.

“Maybe there will be a job or two that only will become open if Harbaugh would be the team’s next coach,” Florio wrote. “This raises the question of whether a team would contact the Ravens and initiate negotiations for what would amount to a trade of Harbaugh, if a deal can be reached on compensation between the teams.”

Tampa Bay has traded for a coach before, of course. In 2002, it traded two first-round draft picks, two second-round draft picks and $8 million to Oakland for Jon Gruden. In a sense, it worked. The Bucs won the Super Bowl in Gruden’s first season. They also haven’t won a playoff game since.

RELATED STORY: Why Jon Gruden was the best mistake the Bucs ever made

Say Tampa Bay is interested in trading for a coach. Why stop at negotiating with Baltimore for Harbaugh? Why not reach out to Houston and see whether you can pry away Bill O’Brien? It’s not likely, especially considering that the Texans are a Super Bowl contender. Plus, in January, Houston chose O’Brien’s side in a coach-general manager power struggle and signed him to a four-year contract extension. NFL contracts, though, are more of a wish than they are a promise.

O’Brien has a significant tie to Tampa Bay: He and general manager Jason Licht are good friends. It was Licht, who as a Patriots scout in 2001, got O’Brien on Bill Belichick’s radar by setting up a meeting between the two. Six years later, Belichick hired O’Brien as an offensive assistant.

• • •

NFL standings: Tampa Bay edition

If the season ended today, the Bucs would have the ninth pick in the 2019 NFL draft. (Record and percent chance of landing a top-five pick in parentheses. Odds courtesy of Football Outsiders.)

1. Cardinals (3-11, 99.6 percent)

2. Raiders (3-11, 97.8 percent)

3. Jets (4-10, 84.4 percent)

4. 49ers (4-10, 87.3 percent)

5. Jaguars (4-10, 39.4 percent)

6. Falcons (5-9, 25.7 percent)

7. Lions (5-9, 35.1 percent)

8. Giants (5-9, 5.7 percent)

9. Bucs (5-9, 16.5 percent)

10. Bills (5-9, 7.0 percent)

• • •

Storylines

• I wouldn’t pin Sunday’s loss on Jameis Winston, who completed 13 of 25 passes for 157 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. He had a decent first half that could have been better if it weren’t for some dropped passes. I do wonder, though, whether the past few games have provided any further clarity about his future in Tampa Bay. My guess is that however you felt about Winston last month is exactly how you feel about him today.

• We won’t talk about him because we rarely do, but Lavonte David had a terrific game. He had both of the Bucs’ sacks and three of their five quarterback hits. He also recovered a fumble. It’s a shame that in seven seasons he has never played in a playoff game. For that to happen, he might have to go elsewhere. He’s signed through the 2020 season and has $20.5 million remaining on his contract.

• Given that the Bucs allowed 242 rushing yards, you wouldn’t think it’s possible that their run-stuffing rookie defensive tackle had a great game. Vita Vea, however, was outstanding. In one of the best games of his young career, the rookie was disruptive against the pass and the run. He was one of the few Tampa Bay defenders who actually tackled well.

• In which phases are the Bucs better than they were in 2015, when they went 6-10? Pass offense (Sunday aside)? Not run offense. Not pass defense. Not run defense. Not kicking. Not punting. Not returning.

• The Bears, who finished with the same record as the Bucs last season and lost to them 29-7, clinched the NFC North. Chicago is one of five teams (Cleveland, Denver, Houston and Indianapolis are the others) that finished 5-11 or worse last season and have a better record than Tampa Bay this season. There’s a case to be made for patience and seeing a process through, but what from the past couple of seasons tells you that the arrow for the Bucs is pointing upward?

• • •

What I got right

That the Bucs offense would stall against the stingy Ravens pass defense. Baltimore allowed a first down on only four of Winston’s 25 passes (16 percent). In Tampa Bay’s first 13 games, it gained a first down on 44 percent of its passes.

What I got wrong

Though it never felt as if the Bucs were in the game in the second half, they did keep the game to within one score, which was much closer than I expected.

• • •

Links

• Eduardo Encina: Defense can’t find its way off the field in loss

• Martin Fennelly: The Bucs’ losing legacy claims a lost generation of fans

• Rick Stroud: Nobody seems safe

Contact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tometrics.