"Crist, who always has sought to portray himself as a pragmatist rather than an ideologue, seems to have sold that message to independents who historically have favored problem-solvers who are less political," Brown added. "It may turn out that Crist's change from Republican to independent to Democrat branded him as the kind of less political politician with the most important voter group. If Crist can win independents by 20 points on Election Day, he will be difficult to beat.



"It would be a reasonable hypothesis that the candidates' debates made a big difference in this race. Scott was ahead going into them and behind after them. It could be a coincidence, but it would be a pretty large coincidence. Crist has long been thought of as an excellent campaigner and he used those skills to his advantage.



"Wyllie is holding on to his 8 percent and if those voters decide to leave him for a major party candidate they could also make a difference."