Week 12 Results:

Week 12 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 2-4-0 13-5-1 (.684) Drive Picks 7-8-0 24-17-1 (.571) Metric Picks 9-6-0 29-12-1 (.690) QBR Picks 4-11-0 21-20-1 (.500)

Last week was pretty rough, as there were a lot of big wins and upsets. However, each model (including consensus picks) is still at or above .500 on the year. Here are my model’s picks for this week:

Game Drive Pick Metric Pick QBR Pick NO (-7.5) @ DAL DAL +7.5 DAL +7.5 NO -7.5 IND (-4) @ JAX IND -4 IND -4 IND -4 BAL @ ATL (-1) BAL +1 BAL +1 ATL -1 CHI @ NYG No Spread No Spread No Spread BUF @ MIA (-4.5) MIA -4.5 BUF +4.5 MIA -4.5 CLE @ HOU (-6) HOU -6 HOU -6 HOU -6 DEN (-4.5) @ CIN CIN +4.5 DEN -4.5 CIN +4.5 ARI @ GB (-14) GB -14 GB -14 ARI +14 LAR (-10) @ DET DET +10 LAR -10 DET +10 CAR (-3.5) @ TB TB +3.5 TB +3.5 TB+3.5 KC (-15) @ OAK OAK +15 KC -15 OAK +15 NYJ @ TEN (-7.5) NYJ +7.5 NYJ +7.5 TEN -7.5 SF @ SEA (-10) SEA -10 SEA -10 SEA -10 MIN @ NE (-5) NE -5 MIN +5 MIN +5 LAC @ PIT (-3.5) LAC +3.5 LAC +3.5 LAC +3.5 WAS @ PHI (-6.5) WAS +6.5 WAS +6.5 WAS +6.5

Methodology:

Drive Method: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%

Metric Method: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP

QBR Method: Uses win statistics and Team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:

IND -4

HOU -6

TB +3.5

SEA -10

LAC +3.5

WAS +6.5

