For a relatively long time, the public has by large majorities supported non-discrimination in the workspace for all (ENDA), and the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell (DADT) (e.g, CNN Feb 12-15, 2010: 69%-27%). But marriage equality, the right of same-sex couples to participate civil marriage, has only slowly been viewed more favorably by the American public, and has never reached a majority in any previous poll, although some have been close.

The penultimate polling on the subject was done in May of 2010, by Gallup, and the results were less favorable:

"Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?"

Should: 44%

Should not: 53%

Unsure: 3%

In another poll, done in February 2010 by ABC / Washington Post, the results were closer:

"Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married?"

Legal: 47%

Illegal: 50%

Unsure: 3%

while the same polling a year previous produced a plurality, but not quite a majority, in favor:

Legal: 49%

Illegal: 46%

Unsure: 5%

What does it all mean?

Perhaps attitudes are changing more rapidly than many would have expected, and certainly more rapidly than simple demographic calculations would indicate (far more young people are in favor of equal rights than elders. As older people stop voting and 18 year-olds start voting, the attitude of the electorate is slowing changing just by force of demographics).

Perhaps in another year or two we will see consistent polling results showing the country split down the middle on the issue, and politicians will notice that there is no there there; opposing equal marriage rights will cease to be a plus.

Perhaps even the President will change his mind.

But even if the result is clear in the long run, the battle is far from over and there will be many victories to be won, and many painful defeats to be endured before the 14th amendment of the United States constitution applies to all its citizens.

** Half the the CNN polling sample was asked a slightly different question (leaving out 'should'):

Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?

Yes: 49%

No: 51%

No opinion: 1%

If we average the two results we still get a majority who believe there is or should be a right to marriage equality.