That smile is so calming. Thanks Magic.

Right now the Lakers have a 46.9% chance of keeping their pick in 2017. A hangover from this awful era of Lakers basketball that’s been nauseating Laker Nation since 2015. Fans are probably vacillating between the dankest timeline — the Nets winning all four of their remaining games and the Lakers losing all five of theirs; and the darkest timeline — handing Boston (via Brooklyn’s hangover) the #1 overall and ultimately handing over their pick to Philadelphia.

But what happens if the Lakers lose the lottery regardless of where they end up in the standings?

The Stepien Rule would be saving their asses. Stepien is widely regarded as the worst NBA owner of all time. For the second winningest and most popular franchise in the NBA, his influence on the Lakers FO shows how drastically things have changed. Charles P. Pierce from the now defunct Grantland sums up Ted pretty simply:

Going for instant gratification, he squandered the high draft picks that were a result of his terrible ownership, including one that became James Worthy. In fact, Stepien’s personnel moves were so preposterous that the NBA changed its rules to make it nearly impossible for a team to trade first-round draft picks in consecutive years. The Stepien Rule is his lasting contribution to the league’s history.

There’s three ways to build a basketball team: trades, free agency, and the draft. By losing their 2017 pick, the Lakers will have the 28th pick (via Lou Williams trade this past February) and their own second rounder, quite a steep drop from the Top-3.

No instant gratification moves will be on the table for Magic and Rob Pelinka without cutting into their core. Because losing the 2017 pick also triggers delivering another unprotected 1st Rounder to the Orlando Magic in 2019. So no first rounder can be traded until June of 2020. Instead the Lakers will be forced to wait another season and actually draft someone in 2018.

Thanks Ted.

Next up Free Agency…while the 2017 Free Agency class has some star-studded names, due to the way the CBA is set-up all of them would have to be giving up significant money to go to a worse team and the size of the market won’t be able to make it up. That’s not the case every summer, but for 2017 it will be.

Instead of looking at blowing up the Laker’s young nucleus via trades, let’s look down the road to the 2017–2018 Season.

Obviously without a top-3 pick and no major FA the 2018 pick isn’t going to be terrible. I don’t think the Lakers tank, but they also won’t have Lou Will and possibly Swaggy P. either. The kids grinding out 25–30 wins and making progress will be good and the Lakers will be able to pick in the top-8.

Looking at what could have been, like Cavs fans looking at James Worthy in Purple and Gold, will be frustrating but the path forward probably won’t be as all or nothing as these past few seasons have felt, constantly worrying about the right and wrong number of wins.

Compounding the dread of giving away a high pick was former President of Basketball Operations Jim Buss creating a self-imposed timeline that the Lakers would be making the Western Conference Finals or else. The or else was meant to mean he’d gracefully exit, but most fans thought it meant if that looked out of reach he’d panic-trade for aging stars and deliver L.A. into a prolonged purgatory of no future and an ugly product on the floor.

Not the only poster child for NBA Purgatory, but he’s got the best expressions.

Instead with a new Front Office and no strings attached to the 2018 pick, for the first time in a while fans will hopefully be able to just enjoy the season. I won’t be surprised to see some will still be embracing the tank, but if the wins do start mounting they’ll forget about the prospect of landing a talented teenager and instead start imagining enticing free agents in their prime like Small Forwards from Indiana or Chicago or an athletic Center like Deandre Jordan.

If those wins don’t come and they land a decently high pick in the 2018 draft while missing the playoffs that probably means a prime target like Paul George will have to want to come here regardless of the record and believe in the roster.

Without heavy-hitter talent choosing Purple and Gold in the next couple Free Agency periods, the accelerated-timeline probably never happens. All of their rookies contracts will start requiring big dollars, and they’ll essentially have to roll with who they’ve got.

The wildcard is super-agent Rob Pelinka, can he make Ainge-like demands and actually pull off the trades? There’s no easy-to-read path when it comes to trades. There’s infinite amounts of possibilities and any one trade can set the franchise off in a new direction. Luckily good ol’ Ted will protect Laker fans from the chance that the new Front Office also becomes obsessed with instant-gratification, so instead of meddling with draft picks they’ll have to trade guys with actual names. There’s just as high a margin for error in that regard, but you can talk yourself into liking a new player, you can’t talk yourself into thinking that the #1 pick is better than the #32nd pick and that ends with the 2017 Draft Lottery.