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"Democrats are extremely bullish about their chances in this race," said a Democratic strategist. "Republicans recognize the real danger they have in North Dakota."

The size of the DSCC buy matches what American Crossroads, the conservative group founded by Karl Rove, has said it is spending on the race for retiring Sen. Kent Conrad's (D-N.D.) seat.

"The fact that Washington Democrats are worried enough to make North Dakota the site of their first statewide buy should tell everyone all they need to know about how credible their poll is," said NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh. "We agree that Democrats are right to be very worried about Heidi's chances in a state where her friend President Obama's approvals are in the 30's."

- This post was updated at 4:11 p.m.