The federal National Party is gripped in an existential crisis and few know how it will end.

For a party that's renowned for politicians freelancing their own policy agendas, one of the rare things that unites them is a belief that Michael McCormack's leadership is terminal.

It's now a matter of whether a change at the top of the National Party, which would be the sixth for the Coalition since coming to power, will happen before or after the May election.

For those wanting a change back to former leader Barnaby Joyce, the problem is timing. After Monday's volleys, there's still a long wait until the next chance for a challenge when Parliament next sits for the budget on April 2.

If the change doesn't happen in that week, it will be practically impossible for it to happen until after the election.

Mr McCormack hasn't cemented himself in the role in the little over 12 months he's spent as the nation's Deputy Prime Minister.

That's largely the result of having risen to the top job in much the same way Steven Bradbury became an Olympic gold medallist — an unexpected fall created a vacuum and a open path to the top.

It's also the product of having replaced Mr Joyce — a man both politically and privately his antithesis.

Sorry, this video has expired Michael McCormack hits back at Barnaby Joyce amid Nationals leadership stoush.

A safe pair of hands

At the peak of his powers, Mr Joyce was often referred to as the best retail politician of his generation.

He had cut through. He backed his conviction and was never boring in selling a message.

He was willing to stand up to Liberal prime ministers and was arguably one of the most recognisable faces in the Federal Parliament.

None of those qualities can be attributed to the man who replaced him.

But not being Mr Joyce was a major selling point for Mr McCormack when he took over the leadership.

He was an unknown figure, a family man and seen as a safe pair of hands.

His rise came as the party was engulfed in scandal and it needed a calming presence to end the turbulence.

Many forget it wasn't that Mr Joyce had ended his 24-year marriage and was having a child with his former staffer that brought an end to his leadership.

The final straw proved to be sexual harassment allegations, which a party investigation was ultimately unable to make a finding on.

Mr Joyce has repeatedly insisted he is innocent and has described the allegations as "spurious and defamatory".

The old guard hold on

Despite the political baggage he carries, the fact that some in the party are agitating for Mr Joyce's return goes to the heart of the Messiah complex the old guard of the party have for him.

Their hope is the Barnaby of old can solve their political woes as they look down the barrel of political oblivion.

National Party seats at risk: Capricornia, QLD, 0.6%, Michelle Landry

Capricornia, QLD, 0.6%, Michelle Landry Flynn, QLD, 1.0%, Ken O'Dowd

Flynn, QLD, 1.0%, Ken O'Dowd Dawson, QLD, 3.4%, George Christensen

Dawson, QLD, 3.4%, George Christensen Page, NSW, 2.3 %, Kevin Hogan

Page, NSW, 2.3 %, Kevin Hogan Cowper, NSW, 4.6%, retiring MP

Three seats in Queensland and two in NSW are under serious threat of falling at the next election.

Sources in the National Party say Ken O'Dowd's Queensland seat of Flynn and retiring MP Luke Hartsuyker's NSW seat of Cowper are all but gone.

Michelle Landry's Queensland seat of Capricornia, the most marginal for the party, is on a knife's edge.

Queenslander George Christensen and New South Welshman Kevin Hogan are in tight battles but the party is optimistic they will hold their seats.

That combined with the party expecting to lost two Senate seats — NSW and Tasmania — leaves just under a third of Nationals seats at serious risk of falling.

Agriculture Minister David Littleproud has been touted as a future leader of the National Party after the next election. ( ABC News: Nick Haggarty )

Maths suggest it might be budget or bust for Barnaby

One of the biggest threats to Mr Joyce returning to the leadership after the election is his supporters losing their seats.

In a party of 22, contested estimates suggest about 14 people, if not more, as being willing to back him against Mr McCormack.

But of those five are retiring from politics, with an extra three at risk of losing their seats.

Mr McCormack's supporters, meanwhile, appear set to comfortably retain their seats.

An additional problem for Mr Joyce after the election is rising star David Littleproud, the Queensland MP who went from backbench to cabinet within 18 months of being elected.

He's long been touted as a future leader of the party and, if he ran in the leadership ballot, would offer the party the chance to reset with fresh blood.

He's repeatedly ruled out running for the leadership before the election and it remains unclear if the 42-year-old Agriculture and Water Resources Minister would be willing to run against Mr Joyce in a one-on-one battle after the election.

Adding to the confusion is the chance that senators whose tenure ends come July, could cast a decisive vote on the future of the party just days or weeks out from their political careers ending.

Voters to have the final say

Mr Joyce has repeatedly claimed credit for the Government holding onto power at the last election.

He points to the Nationals retaining all their seats, and gaining an extra in Victoria.

What is often not mentioned is that the seat the party gained was from the Liberal Party after the incumbent retired, meaning there was no net gain to the Coalition.

What the party might save in Queensland by turning back to Mr Joyce and his coal-fired power loving ways could also potentially risk alienating the party's chances of retaining coastal seats on the NSW north coast.

It also applies ample pressure to Liberals, not just in Victoria, but also in Sydney and Brisbane where they are battling to retain seats.

Alienating these Liberal seats, in returning for retaining National seats, is a gamble the Nationals appear very willing to make.

But what remains untested is what the broader community backlash might be to Mr Joyce returning to the top job.

Rural women, particularly in Western Australia, have vowed to campaign against him, arguing he hasn't spent enough time in the political wilderness rehabilitating his profile.

One thing is clear. If Mr Joyce does return to the leadership, it will be anything but dull, a criticism that has all too often hung over Michael McCormack.