Last August the Silph Research Group revealed the secret mechanics behind the rewards allotted for successfully conquering a raid.

Silph researchers have continued monitoring this mechanic ever since. Today, after analyzing over 7,000 raids and 43,000 bundles it’s time to update our information on: the current raid reward tiers!

Let us start with a quick summary of raid rewards:

A Quick Recap: Raid Rewards 101

Bundles: Raid rewards are grouped together in bundles that contain multiples of the same item (for example, 3 revives or 3 rare candies ). Bundle Count: The number of reward bundles received is determined by the number of Premier Balls earned and the raid level. Bundle Content: The content of each reward bundle is randomly chosen, and as such decided by luck. Raid Level: The number of a given reward item per bundle is dependent on the raid level. Thus, higher raid levels give on average more items even when the number of bundles is the same. TMs: The probability of getting a Fast TM or Charged TM is highly correlated with the raid level, whilst the other reward items ( Revives , Golden Razz Berries , and Rare Candies ) each have the same probability of appearing in a reward bundle.

What’s Changed?

Since our last raid rewards breakdown, the reward system has seen two major changes:

August 16, 2017: Potions were added into the reward pool and TM drop rates were lowered drastically. November 21, 2017: Niantic added a guaranteed bundle of Golden Razz Berries for every completed raid. At the same time, the size of some reward bundles was changed and TM drop rates were increased.

You can read more details about these changes in the Appendix section below this article.

Current Raid Rewards

After recording and analyzing the rewards from 7,417 raids (and 43,183 bundles), here are the current raid reward bundles, their sizes, and their respective probabilities1:

No changes were observed to the correlation or counts between Premier Balls earned and the number of bundles received. For reference, this is depicted in the table below:



Balls Earned 6 x 1 2 3 4 4 7 x 2 3 4 5 5 8 x 2 3 4 5 5 9 x 2 3 5 6 6 10 x 2 3 5 6 6 11 x 2 4 5 7 7 12 x 2 4 6 7 7 13 x 2 4 6 8 8 14 x 2 4 6 8 8

Putting It Into Practice

Using the above tables, we can calculate the expected (average) rewards from each raid level, given the number of Premier Balls earned:

For 14 Premier Balls (6 for defeating the boss, +3 for individual damage, +2 for gym control, +3 for team contribution):

14 Premier Balls ~ Expected (Average) Rewards 4.3 8.3 0.43 0.43 4.3 – 8.6 4.4 7.4 0.36 0.27 2.9 – 5.9 3.4 5.3 0.22 0.12 2.3 9.1 – 1.6 3.6 0.03 0.02 0.8 4.7 – 0.8 2.4 0.01 <0.01 0.4 1.6 –

For 10 Premier Balls (6 for defeating the boss, then e.g. +1 for individual damage, 0 for gym control, +3 for team contribution):

10 Premier Balls ~ Expected (Average) Rewards 3.2 7.2 0.32 0.32 3.2 – 6.4 3.3 6.3 0.27 0.21 2.2 – 4.4 2.8 4.9 0.18 0.1 1.9 7.5 – 1.2 3.2 0.02 0.02 0.6 3.5 – 0.8 2.4 0.01 <0.01 0.4 1.6 –

PARTING WORDS

Even after the two reward changes, legendary raids still offer the maximum rewards – in particular elusive Charged TMs .

Moreover, rewards still increase with the number of Premier Balls awarded. This means that, when possible, it is still advisable to raid in small groups and with members of the same team.

However, even solo players can now have a chance at TMs (especially Fast TMs ) if they manage to defeat several level 3 raids. And remember: rewards for 12 and 14 Premier Balls are identical for levels 1, 2 and 3, so gym control is irrelevant for solo raids.

Happy raiding, travelers!

Notes

Note 1:

The underlying mechanics behind these probabilities are still unknown, but they are likely to be the result of integer weights applied to the different item bundles. Here is an educated guess of these weights:

Raid Level 20 20 6 6 20 – 40 20 20 5 4 20 – 40 20 20 4 2 20 40 – 40 40 2 1 40 80 – 80 80 2 1 80 160 –