Employment and business losses are mounting in key swing states just a year out from President Donald Trump's 2020 reelection bid. And the losses are being felt particularly acutely in the industrial and agricultural sectors – a critical part of the base that helped Trump win the White House in 2016.

But in several of these key swing states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump is not exactly hurting for support from his core constituency. Recent polls in all three states suggest Trump's job approval – and opposition to House Democrats' impeachment inquiry – remains strong among the demographic groups and in the geographic areas that supported him the most fervently in 2016.

Despite agricultural upheaval, industrial weakness and a monthslong manufacturing recession – which are being felt particularly acutely in some of 2016's most pro-Trump counties – the president has yet to see much erosion in support from groups that overwhelmingly backed him three years ago.

"I think, when we look at these voters, it's much more multifaceted. It's not just geared toward manufacturing and to farming," says Terry Madonna, director of Franklin and Marshall College's Center for Politics and Public Affairs. "There are cultural issues, abortion, gay rights, gun control. There's a multiplicity of considerations."

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Economic woes in industrial and agricultural professions have been well-documented in recent months – with analysts consistently pointing to trade uncertainty and the ongoing dispute with China as an aggravating factor. High levels of farm debt and extreme weather patterns have dogged farmers through 2019, all while producers of specific products like chickpeas have struggled to get their goods to export markets as the U.S. battles with China on the trade front.

On the industrial side, the Institute for Supply Management 's manufacturing industry barometer remained in recessionary territory for the third consecutive month in October, with subindexes for new orders, production, employment, inventories, order backlogs and imports all contracting.

Manufacturing payrolls have also dipped this year, with losses in two straight Bureau of Labor Statistics job reports and declines particularly problematic in key 2020 swing states. Pennsylvania lost nearly 11,000 manufacturing jobs between October 2018 and September 2019. Wisconsin has lost nearly 7,000 such jobs so far this year. And industry employment in Michigan has declined in three consecutive months, with the state ending September with nearly 8,000 fewer manufacturing jobs than it had in June.

"Job growth has throttled way back over the past year. The job slowdown is most pronounced at manufacturers and small companies," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said in a statement last week, warning that "if hiring weakens any further, unemployment will begin to rise."

And despite Trump's 2016 promises to bolster the country's steel, coal and natural resource industries, mining and logging employment has also stagnated in 2019. Primary metal manufacturing – which includes the steel and aluminum industries – saw payrolls drop by more than 3,000 positions between October 2018 and October 2019.

"We stress that rising trade tensions and the risk of tightening financial conditions are two key factors that could not only prolong the industrial slump but also lead to more rapid contagion via employment and confidence," Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note last week.

To be sure, the rest of the economy continues to hum along, but key industries in specific swing states haven't looked particularly healthy of late. And yet recent polling efforts have consistently shown less than half of voters in key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – three traditionally agriculture-, industrial- and manufacturing-heavy states that supported Trump in 2016 – support removing Trump from office through impeachment. More than half of respondents to a recent New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll said they oppose impeachment and removal.

Roughly 51% of respondents to a recent New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll who live in Wisconsin said they oppose impeachment and removal. Another 51% from Michigan and 52% from Pennsylvania said the same. No more than 43% of self-identified independents support impeachment and removal in any of the three states.

"They literally elected Trump to the presidency in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. We're just going to have to wait and see how enthusiastic they are."

"The bottom line: five weeks of non-stop revelations have failed to budge near-uniform Republican opposition to impeachment and have left a majority of Independents unpersuaded," William Galston, a chair and senior fellow of governance studies at the Brookings Institution, wrote in a blog post Friday.

However, when asked who they would support in a general election, New York Times Upshot/Siena College data suggests Trump has more reason for worry, especially given his narrow victories of less than 1 percentage point in all three states in 2016.

Trump is even with former Vice President Joe Biden in Michigan and trails him in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He trails Sen. Bernie Sanders in all three states, and only leads Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Michigan.

"I don't think there's any doubt that he needs to be concerned. The jury is still out," Madonna says of Trump's working-class support in swing states. "Will there be significant defections? Or, put another way, where will the enthusiasm be, and will they turn out? Remember, (blue collar) turnout went up sharply in 2016."

Madonna notes that Trump's support does not come from a single-voter base, and softness in manufacturing and agriculture alone will likely not be enough to derail a considerable share of his supporters. He also notes that, particularly in Pennsylvania, sharp movement in especially rural or especially urban counties is probably unlikely, given the demographic and voter trends that have been playing out for decades. The suburbs, instead, are likely to be more of a "key battleground," he says.

"Over the last decade or two, as the Democrats have become more of an urban-based party – culturally liberal, gun control – they've pulled away from their traditional support among the white working class as they've moved on to other agenda items," Madonna says. "Winning back the working class is difficult."

So it's not that manufacturing- and agriculture-heavy counties, many of which are fairly rural, are a lock for Trump or a lost cause for Democrats, Madonna says. It's just too early to tell whether Trump's levels of support in these counties from 2016 will carry over into 2020. And with a full year to go until the election, it's likely too early for Trump's campaign to panic over industry- and region-specific slumps.