Senate race shows emerging Democratic rifts Democrats would like to clear the field for Rep. Chris Van Hollen, a plan that isn't likely to work.

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s endorsement of Rep. Chris Van Hollen in the Maryland Senate race last week was a sign that national Democrats hope to clear the field for Van Hollen, a seven-term congressman from Montgomery County who’s held posts in party leadership.

But it’s not likely to work — and Maryland could be the next example of the simmering divide between the Democratic establishment and the liberals who would rather see Sen. Elizabeth Warren on the 2016 ticket than Hillary Clinton.


Progressive allies are increasingly convinced that Rep. Donna Edwards is about to enter the contest to succeed Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.), who announced her retirement last week. Two potential national allies of Edwards told POLITICO Campaign Pro they expect her to announce a Senate bid this week.

“I’m totally confident she’s serious and will run,” a national progressive activist said. “At this point, I would be surprised if she didn’t.”

Edwards’ campaign declined to confirm she’s entering the race but accelerated her timeline for a decision. “Congresswoman Edwards is seriously considering a run for the U.S. Senate and will make a decision in the coming days,” Edwards spokesman Ben Gerdes wrote in an email Friday.

Progressive groups — like the Howard Dean-founded Democracy for America and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee — have prodded Edwards to run for the seat. Her potential entrance is also a sign that Edwards believes she has a path to the Democratic nomination: She told MSNBC last week she’d run only if she thought she had a chance to win.

While there is room for other Democrats to enter the field and gain momentum, the early contours of the primary battle appear to favor an Edwards-Van Hollen showdown. The left remains skeptical of Van Hollen, who spoke positively of the failed Simpson-Bowles debt reduction plan, which liberal critics say would have cut Social Security benefits. Pro-Israel Democrats, on the other hand, are wary of Edwards, who skipped Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress last week and has been scrutinized by Jewish leaders in the D.C. suburbs for past votes.

Van Hollen’s camp points to 90-plus-percent vote ratings from liberal organizations to argue that he’s no moderate. And the congressman spoke directly last Friday, saying during an interview on WAMU, a Washington NPR affiliate, that progressives should consider him an ally. In what’s likely to become a recurring theme in his campaign, he argued that a candidate should be judged not only by political positions but by effectiveness — and his efforts to combat the House Republican budget, championed by 2012 GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), should be part of that.

“I believe in a progressive agenda, and I believe in being effective at getting that progressive agenda through,” he said, adding that candidates should be evaluated by “their ability to translate those values into action and their ability to prevent, in this case, House Republicans or Senate Republicans from rolling back the important progress made.”

In his endorsement, Reid referred to Van Hollen as “the kind of legislator who makes things happen.” (The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee isn’t taking sides in the race.)

Democracy for America, which delights in bucking centrist Democrats, predicted Reid’s endorsement wouldn’t scare off Edwards.

“Congresswoman Edwards has a history of defying Washington insiders and winning hard fought primaries with the support of the grassroots progressives in Maryland and across the country,” DFA spokesman Neil Sroka wrote in an email, referencing Edwards’ two primary battles against then-Rep. Albert Wynn (D-Md.), the last of which, in 2008, was successful. “We’re confident that Congresswoman Edwards will heed the call of the party’s grassroots base.”

Already, one of her potential rivals has signaled he’s likely to bow out of the race if Edwards enters the field. A source close to former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, the party’s unsuccessful gubernatorial nominee last year, said he’s unlikely to run against the congresswoman. The source said Brown — like Edwards, an African-American from Prince George’s County — was “very mindful of the moves she’s making.”

“If Donna runs for Senate, maybe there are other opportunities for Anthony,” the source said.

A slew of other Democrats are considering bids, including Reps. John Delaney, John Sarbanes, Dutch Ruppersberger and Elijah Cummings. Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake is also mulling the race, as is Heather Mizeur, a former state delegate who finished third in the gubernatorial primary last year. Former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, who hasn’t been on a ballot since 2002, is giving thought to jumping in. And former NAACP President Ben Jealous is also considering a run, The New York Times reported Friday.

A Democratic operative in the state said Delaney, who was previously thought to have his eye on the 2018 governor’s race against incumbent Republican Larry Hogan, is moving as though he intends to run for Senate. The same operative said Cummings has commissioned polling on the race.

The long list of potential candidates belies a slowly emerging pecking order that begins with Edwards and Van Hollen. With their virtually assured candidacies, other potential contenders must decide whether there’s room to compete for donors and support.

In particular, a Van Hollen-Edwards contest would leave an opening for a Baltimore-based candidate. The center of power in Maryland politics has slowly shifted south to the wealthy D.C. suburbs in recent decades, but Baltimoreans — who just a year ago controlled both Senate seats and the governor’s office — are unlikely to give up easily. Cummings, Rawlings-Blake and Sarbanes would all fit the bill, although Sarbanes’ district now snakes throughout the state.

Some candidates could opt to instead run for the House. Jealous and Mizeur, both Montgomery County residents, could run for Van Hollen’s seat.

Candidates with support in the state’s African-American community — which makes up a huge portion of the Democratic primary electorate — must decide whether to challenge one another.

A number of Republicans have also said they might enter the race. But the party hasn’t won a Senate race in Maryland since Charles “Mac” Mathias’ reelection in 1980.

Van Hollen last week was also endorsed by Brian Frosh, the state’s new attorney general. Despite this backing, there is no slam-dunk for Democrats. Only two Democratic candidates considering a bid — Brown and Kennedy Townsend — have won statewide races.

Kennedy Townsend has been out of elected office since her defeat in the 2002 governor’s race to Republican Robert Ehrlich. But she’s been active in Democratic politics, including a stint at the head of the Democratic research firm American Bridge 21st Century. Now, she says she focuses her energy on retirement security issues. In an interview last week, the Anne Arundel County resident said Van Hollen’s decision to run doesn’t affect hers.

“I always assumed he would be in the race,” she said. “I know the state well. I know a lot about what people need in different parts of the state. I believe very strongly that right now, the question of how working men and women are going to live with some sense of security is critical. I could probably really make a difference.”

Kennedy Townsend said she doesn’t expect the primary to get ugly — and that a crowded field could actually be healthy for the Democratic Party.

“I’m talking to the people who are thinking about running. What I see is there’s enormous respect for the other opponents,” she said. “It should be a really important primary.”