TO: Interested Parties

FROM: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department

Race Tightening in PA-16 – DiNicola Within Margin

In an October DCCC Analytics survey of 548 likely 2018 November general election voters, Democrat Ron DiNicola is polling within the margin of error against Republican Mike Kelly in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district. DiNicola is only down 3 points, garnering 46% of the vote to Kelly’s 49% , with 5% of voters still undecided.

DiNicola leads among women by 4 points (49% to 45%), and among registered Democrats by 68 points (82% to 13%).

In Erie County – the county with the greatest share of registered voters in the district – DiNicola holds a 20-point lead, and beats Kelly 57% to 37%. DiNicola’s advantages come from both voters under 40, among whom he leads by three points (47% to 44%) and voters over 65 (48% to 47%).

Pennsylvanians Hold Positive View of Ron DiNicola

DiNicola has a net +9 favorability rating in the district , with 35% of likely voters holding a favorable view of him, and 26% an unfavorable view. Comparatively, Republican incumbent Mike Kelly’s favorability numbers are underwater ; 37% of likely voters hold a favorable view of him, while 40% hold an unfavorable view.

About the District: PA-16 is located in the northwestern corner of Pennsylvania, and includes all or part of Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Lawrence and Butler counties. Trump won the district by 20 points in 2016. About 4% of the voting aged population is African American, and 26% of the district has a college degree. The district is 54.7% rural and 36.2% suburban. Clinton lost the district with 37.9% of the vote. Obama won the district in 2008 with 50.2%, but lost in 2012 with 46.9% of the vote.

These results are based on a DCCC survey of 548 likely November 2018 general election voters in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district, conducted October 9-10, 2018. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and this poll was conducted through a standard blend of live cell phone and automated calls. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%.