A total of 135 North Korean defectors arrived in South Korea in the first quarter of this year, South Korea’s unification ministry on Friday reported, 94 fewer than the same period in 2019.

39 male and 96 female defectors arrived in the South from January 1 to March 31, the Ministry of Unification (MOU) told reporters in a statement.

The same period in 2019, however, saw a total of 229 North Koreans — 38 male and 191 female — enter South Korea.

Compared with the previous year, 95 fewer female defectors arrived in South Korea in 2020 — with the number of male defectors remaining similar to the first quarter of 2019.

Experts say that the drop may have been influenced by both the Lunar New Year and strengthened border control due to efforts to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in and around China.

“That works out to 71% female for Q1 2020 — which is a bit lower than recent years but not outside the historical range,” said Sokeel Park of Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), an NGO that works with defectors.

However, he observed that “the significantly lower number is definitely because of coronavirus.”

“Because of the border security it would have become harder to get out of North Korea in the first place,” he noted, adding that “refugees tend to stay put” during late January’s Lunar New Year celebrations.

Coronavirus-related travel restrictions and security checks mean escapees in China are more likely to stay where they are, Park said, and that those in the DPRK considering crossing the border were likely aware of these increased risks.

There may also have been a “delay” in the MOU counting defector arrivals, Park added, since a considerable number of people normally go through a month-long defection procedure outside of Korea.

“The situation in terms of North Korean refugee flows may be even worse than the numbers show,” he noted. “Q1 likely includes some of the 2019 Q4 pipeline people… the first quarter could have been even worse. We’ve been able to help almost no-one this year.”

Kim Young-hui, a North Korean-born researcher on the DPRK economy at the Korea Development Bank (KDB), agreed that the coronavirus is one of the likely contributing factors to the drop in numbers.

“Many North Koreans are unable to move from their current location due to the coronavirus. Some part of the decrease in defector numbers would have been due to virus-related border control.”

North Korea has since late January implemented a “national emergency quarantine system” to prevent the spread of COVID-19, increasing security and quarantine in the border areas.

While experts say it may still be premature to predict this year’s prospects for defection numbers, Park of LiNK said that the smaller figure in the first quarter of 2020 fits into a “long term” trend observed in recent years.

“It is a long term decrease. Last year was the lowest year since 2001,” he said, pointing to how last year saw only 1047 North Korean escapees enter South Korea.

“Overall, this year is just going to be a very low year for arrivals, maybe way less than a thousand — because of the coronavirus.”

Another expert in late February also pointed to increased repression and border security as the reason for the shrinking figure.

2019 saw the lowest number of North Korean defectors in 18 years — a striking decrease compared to 2009 when the number peaked to a total of 2914 defectors arriving in the South.

From 2012 to 2019 — under Kim Jong Un’s rule — the yearly total of defectors has oscillated between 1000 and 1500, with an average of 1160.

Female North Korean defectors tend to comprise a larger number than their male counterparts, making up between 73% to 85% of the annual total for the past eight years.

Edited by James Fretwell and Oliver Hotham