The tropical threat to Texas appears to have ended for now.

Over the course of two successive runs the forecast models have simultaneously shifted markedly away from a Texas landfall for Tropical Storm Debby, while coming into significantly better agreement.

And the consensus is northern Gulf coast, probably somewhere along the Florida panhandle on Tuesday or Wednesday. The latest run of the European model is emblematic of the expected forecast track.

After Tuesday the storm could still make a westward turn, which the models were forecasting Saturday, but it would be over land at that time, and the storm would not track all the way to Texas.

It’s going to be a wet time in the Florida Panhandle. Heavy squalls are already affecting the area, and rain totals could reach 10-20 inches between now and Wednesday.

Houston, I’m sorry to say, is unlikely to see any significant effects from Debby in the form of rain or cooler temperatures. We’ll desperately want both by mid-week.