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Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. A well-known saying by Spanish philosopher George Santayana, and a well-known feeling for Liverpool FC.

For the third time in 12 years, a second place finish has failed to be built upon; a tilt at the Premier League title has just led to a dramatic fall.

If the Reds are to finish outside of the top four, it would be the third time finishing second was followed by failure to qualify for the Champions League in the following season. What’s more, it will have happened under three different managers.

Curiously, it would appear the Reds have made the same mistakes, both on and off the pitch. And while this league season is not over yet - something Rodgers was keen to note this week – the examination of what’s gone right and wrong this season has begun.

Liverpool could still end the season in fourth and win the FA Cup, of course.

Yet some have written 2014-15 off, and it cannot be denied Champions League football is unlikely next year.

Here’s why the club are on the brink of history repeating once more.

2002-03

What happened

After finishing second with 80 points – behind an all-time great Arsenal side – the Reds would end the following season in fifth. Two defeats in the final two games, including the must-win final fixture against Chelsea, saw them end on 64 points.

Why it happened

Losing a big player and failing to replace them: Loan signing Nicolas Anelka had been a huge part of Liverpool’s second half of the season, scoring five goals in 22 appearances but helping reinvigorate their front-line in general and steering them to a run of 13 wins and a draw in their final 15 games. Gerard Houllier didn’t take the chance of signing him on a permanent deal and brought in El-Hadji Diouf instead.

Transfer market failures: Diouf was part of the unholy trinity of bad buys that summer. Names like Damien Duff and a scrawny but skilful Cristiano Ronaldo had been linked with moves to Anfield, but they settled on Diouf, Salif Diao and Bruno Cheyrou. Despite impressing initially, the trio would struggle to maintain the standards required, with Diouf involved in a high-profile spat with Celtic fans.

Difficulty reversing bad run of form: Losing runs is part of the reason why the Reds would finish fifth, but it also highlighted just how accustomed the squad had become to picking up three points in the previous season – so much so, reversing a slump became even harder.

After their first defeat of the season in November, away to Middlesbrough, it would be another 11 games until they won again. By that point, they had dropped from first to seventh, and exited the Champions League at the group stage.

Injuries and suspensions: The Reds would pick up three red cards, the same number as 2001-02, but would have to deal with an altered back-line throughout the season with Djimi Traore, Stephane Henchoz and Abel Xavier all featuring. Houllier used just 25 players over a season which contained a run to the League Cup final.

Off-the-field issues: Was Houllier ever the same after he returned from his heart surgery? His return against Roma in March 2002 was a pivotal and emotional moment for the club, but his demeanour on the touchline once things went wrong in late 2002 saw a weary character.

Expectation and tactics: With a title charge expected, the Reds never recovered from that mid-season malaise. The counter attacking excellence of the previous season had been replaced with an overcautious, defensive system which relied far too heavily on Michael Owen and Steven Gerrard.

What happened next

Liverpool would find themselves back in the top four the following season, but Houllier would leave shortly after.

2009-10

What happened

A dramatic end to the season saw the Reds win 10 of their last 11 games, but it wasn’t enough to usurp Manchester United. Those 86 points turned into 63 the following season as Liverpool finished seventh.

Why it happened

Losing a big player and failing to replace them: Xabi Alonso was the big loss to Liverpool, moving to Real Madrid for £30m just before the season started.

As the vice tightened under the grip of Tom Hicks and George Gillett, he would be replaced by Italian midfielder Alberto Aquilani in a deal laden with clauses and add-ons. Aquilani wasn’t fit to begin with, and never really found form when he eventually made his debut, with boss Rafael Benitez struggling to find a proper role for him.

Transfer market failures: Replacing Alonso with a midfielder not yet fit was a big mistake, but replacing Alvaro Arbeloa with Glen Johnson was also a move which took time to work. Sotiris Kyrgiakos was no real replacement for Sami Hyypia, either, although the mitigating circumstances must be acknowledged as the squad was downgraded.

Difficulty reversing bad run of form: It’s forgotten Liverpool went into October in third, with 15 points from a possible 21. But a horrific run – made better only by a home win over Manchester United – saw them head into Christmas in seventh after just three wins in 11.

Not even the Champions League could give Liverpool momentum as they finished behind Lyon and Fiorentina.

Injuries and suspensions: Indiscipline would be a big factor for Liverpool, collecting five red cards in the league having not suffered a single dismissal the previous season. That included two dismissals in one game when Jamie Carragher and Philipp Degen. Fernando Torres would also play even fewer games than he did in 2008-09.

Off-the-field issues: Hicks and Gillett were in the midst of asset-stripping the club, which affected affairs both on and off the pitch. The team was in decline on the pitch, while the atmosphere had become poisonous off it.

Expectation and tactics: Despite the internal problems, Liverpool were one of the favourites to win the Premier League – and the pressure built on Benitez as the Reds struggled in the autumn. The Spanish boss compromised his beliefs as he chased a more attractive style of play, to mixed results.

What happened next

Benitez would be sacked in the summer and replaced by Roy Hodgson. Hodgson wouldn’t last more than half a season and, under new ownership, was removed from his role. Kenny Dalglish would steer the club to a sixth-place finish.

2014-15

What happened

Liverpool missed out on the Premier League title by two points after a remarkable season which saw them win 11 straight games. A crucial defeat to Chelsea, followed by a draw at Crystal Palace, ended their title hopes. They are currently in fifth on 54 and look unlikely to qualify for the Champions League.

Why it happened

Losing a big player and failing to replace them: Luis Suarez could have left in the summer of 2013 but Liverpool managed to keep hold of him. Unfortunately for the Reds and boss Brendan Rodgers, he left in a £75m deal the following summer after finishing the season as top goalscorer and PFA Player of the Year. He was replaced, in part, by Rickie Lambert and Mario Balotelli – and their three league goals are dwarfed by his 31.

Transfer market failures: Balotelli is looking like an expensive mistake, but Dejan Lovren – recent cameos aside – has been an awful piece of business. Adam Lallana, at £23m, is a good player and has weighed in with goals and assists at times, but he’s struggled with injuries. Alberto Moreno and Lazar Markovic have shown flashes but are still very much about potential, as is Emre Can.

Difficulty reversing bad run of form: Liverpool were as low as 12th when the Reds lost to Crystal Palace in November, with the 3-1 defeat representing their sixth in 12 games. Much like last season, the Reds embarked on a barnstorming run in the second half of the campaign - but that’s also been halted with consecutive league defeats to Arsenal and Manchester United.

Their poor league showing in the first half of the season was replicated in the Champions League, with Real Madrid and Basel finishing above them.

Injuries and suspensions: Once again, the lack of discipline has been alarming, with five red cards so far this season compared to just one last season. Injuries have not been kind to Rodgers either, however, with Daniel Sturridge missing five months of action with a string of injuries. Others, like Lallana, Steven Gerrard, Lucas Leiva, Jordon Ibe and Raheem Sterling, have had to deal with and are dealing with time on the sidelines too.

Off-the-field issues: The circus surrounding Gerrard’s imminent departure hasn’t helped Liverpool, nor has the focus on potential successor Jordan Henderson. Balotelli has also often hit the headlines, although not always through fault of his own, while Sterling’s contract situation has been a recent unwelcome distraction.

Expectation and tactics: Last season’s title challenge was unexpected, driven by two players who have either spent the season at Barcelona or on the treatment table (Suarez and Sturridge), with Gerrard in his final season at the club, too. A change in formation, from 4-2-3-1 to 3-4-2-1, brought great reward until the past two games.

What happened next

Who knows? One thing is for sure, Rodgers’ position should be safe – regardless of the ridiculous calls for his head, calls which quietened during the winning run, only to resurface after two defeats. But the squad, and its direction, will need assessing at the end of the season – whether they finish fourth or not.