Under the Senate repeal bill, Medicaid would be put on a budget starting in 2020. | Getty States may see federal Medicaid funding decline up to 39 percent under repeal

PROVIDENCE, R.I. — The Senate's Obamacare repeal bill would result in reductions in federal Medicaid funding to states ranging from 27 percent to 39 percent by 2036, according to a presentation made at the National Governors Association summer meeting here.

The estimates — developed by the consulting firm Avalere Health — were presented to governors in a closed-door session on Saturday that also featured top Trump administration officials, including HHS Secretary Tom Price and CMS Administrator Seema Verma.


Fifteen states would see their federal Medicaid funding decline by more than 35 percent by 2036. They include California, Nevada, Kentucky, Washington, North Dakota, Oregon and New Mexico. States that would see reductions between 30 and 35 percent include Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Ohio, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and Tennessee, according to documents obtained by POLITICO.

Avalere also projected the effects in actual dollar amounts to states under per Medicaid capita caps between 2020 and 2036. California and New York would see the biggest declines — $535 billion and $268 billion, respectively. Texas and Pennsylvania would also see reductions upwards of $100 billion each.

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Under the Senate repeal bill, Medicaid would be put on a budget starting in 2020, with payments generally growing in line with medical inflation for the first few years. More strict growth rates on federal Medicaid payments would go into effect in 2025.