Hoop Arithmetic Part II

EDITOR’S NOTE: Hoop Arithmetic is a new, maybe-long-running series from the GoodHoops Analytics Department (meaning Paul Ibrahim). A Timberwolves fan, Paul combines deep-seated love of the game with a wonk’s internal knowledge of advanced basketball statistics to provide us with a review of modern NBA guards. He explains why he thinks the game has largely passed — pun intended — pass-first guards.

In NBA communities, we largely regard pass-first players of the past, such as Magic Johnson or John Stockton, as generational talents, and we hold similar respect to the modern greats such as Chris Paul or Steve Nash who play an analogous style to the aforementioned legends.

However (cue the 30 for 30 voice): what if I told you that assists aren’t all they’re made out to be? What if I told you the value of any given assist isn’t a point or two points, but rather 2/5 of a point? Let’s dig into it.

Brief Explanation: Based on my SACUMUR* measuring/predicting model, I extracted the value of any given player’s assists. I further determined how that value translates to an in-game situation through averaging 10,000 computed simulations of a five-player team comprised of carbon copies of said player. Through a mixture of this statistical evidence and my own subjective analysis, I determined three categories of passers and placed each of the NBA’s top ten assisters into one of the groups.

Overview: Why is the assist worth so little in the modern game? It is not that it has no place or value in the modern game, but rather that the means in which these assists are obtained and valued are largely skewed in a pure box score setting. First, how is an assist more valuable to any other pass which leads to a shot? In theory and in actuality, all passes leading to a shot, whether that shot goes in or not, are equal in value. Thus, this single-handedly reduces the value of an assist by about 60%, which is reflected through the SACUMUR Derivation Model (SDM). Additionally, the style of play and the switchability of modern defenses further diminishes the value of an assist. Because the stereotypical “drive and kick” is a largely antiquated and archaic offense, there is no definitive way to create open shots through passing outside of constant ball movement. In this setting, the value of an assist is further inflated as it is largely random as to which player will take a shot on a given possession, and thus it is randomized as to which player will receive credit for the assist. Thus, through the extreme variability of an assist as a counting stat, it is easily determinable that any singular assist is worth very little.

*SACUMUR is a stat of my own creation which rates a player based on per-36 usage adjusted statistics compounded with advanced metrics and factors based on various historical trends

As of February 27, according to NBA.com, the NBA’s 10 assist leaders are as follows: Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, James Harden, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Ben Simmons, Draymond Green, Jeff Teague, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Steph Curry (I’m gonna include Elfrid Payton in this article because I’m an idiot and didn’t see Chris Paul on this list so I replaced him with Elfrid) . I will now place each of them into a group, and choose one player from each group to analyze and dive deep into the true value of their box score production.

Notes:

Theoretical points produced per assist (TPPA) is more indicative of the quality of teammates around a given player rather than that given player’s production Replacement Level: 2.28

For players on good offensive teams, Average Value of Assist may be slightly inflated due to the simple fact that their surrounding players make more shots than a replacement level player

Category 1: The Impartial Scorers

Members: LeBron James, James Harden, Steph Curry

Overview: The type of player attempted to be described by this group is pretty self-evident by the players provided. Whether it be through the pick and roll, drive and kick, or whatever you call Houston’s Offense, these players pretty evidently are looking to score the ball, but if their teammate has a better look at the basket they are more than willing to pass. They make the smart basketball play. Period.

Average SDM*: 153.76

Average Theoretical Points Produced per Assist (TPPA): 2.42

Average Value of Assist: 0.483 pts

*SDM is a derivative projection of my SACUMUR model which attempts to project how many points would be scored by a team facing a replacement level defense should that team be only comprised of a given player. It does not factor in positionality.

Magnified Player: James Harden

Harden’s entire game revolves around one key ability-putting the ball in the basket. Much to the chagrin of Sam Presti, the Western Conference, and the TNT Crew, he can do it well. In fact, he does it so well, my SACUMUR Derivative Model (SDM) predicts a team comprised of just Hardens to score 182.98 points per game-by far the highest mark of any player. This score indicates a highly efficient, multi-faceted player who’s game is immensely beneficial to his team.

Now, for you basketball purists who ridicule Harden’s game, saying “drawing fouls isn’t real basketball” or “back in basketball’s heyday, George Mikan would eat this John Harden kid alive,” get the hell off this blog. Alright? Harden is a respectable player who finds efficient means to put the ball in the basket, so go read your almanacs or whatever sports outlet AARP endorses.

Ok, now that we’ve gotten the 150-year-old dorks (not you Dickie V. We’ll always love you.) off the blog, we can start talking real basketball. Let’s take a look at the play below:

Here, we see Harden utilize PJ Tucker’s screen to get the oversized Derrick Favors to switch on to him, then quickly proceeds to blow by him into the lane where he is promptly greeted by the French Giraffe, Rudy Gobert (is Stifle Tower a better nickname?). Obviously, by turning towards Harden, this leaves Gobert’s assignment, Tarik Black, wide open on the opposite side of the restricted area, to which Harden responds with an attempted bounce pass to Black. Being the All-NBA defender he is, Rudy manages to get in the way of the pass, but eventually Black gets a hold of it, and puts it in the basket over the outstretched arms of Gobert.

Although this play was seemingly very messy, it’s indicative of Harden’s innate ability to get to the hoop, and to make the smart play when he gets there. It is not solely Harden’s incredible scoring ability which places him as the MVP front-runner, but rather it is his incredible basketball IQ working in accordance to his scoring ability which makes him such an offensive threat.

Category 2: The “Pass First, Hijack their Teams’ Chance to Win Second” Players

Members: Rajon Rondo, Jeff Teague, Ben Simmons, Draymond Green, Spencer Dinwiddie

Overview: Everything you need to know about these types of players is told in their first names. Jeff. Ben. Spencer. These are your “traditional” point guards. Your “game managers.” These are the point guards that every rec league coach dreams to have. They score thirteenish points a game, rack up 7 assists, have around four rebounds, seemingly always shoot 75% from the free throw line (with the exception of Simmons), and run 87,000 pick and rolls a game always ending with an offensive reset. Anything else you need to know? Oh yeah, they all wear headbands at one point in their career (You’ll get there Spencer).

Average SDM: 109.27

Average TPPA: 2.34

Average Value of Assist: 0.474 pts

Note:

Ben Simmons and Draymond Green don’t fit in that great with this group, as they are semi-unicorns (shall we call them ponies?), but it was the closest fit I could find so suck it up.

In the following paragraphs, I am not making the argument that Tyus Jones is a better player than Jeff Teague. Obviously, this is not the case. In a vacuum, orange juice is far superior to milk, but I don’t want cereal with orange juice. SACUMUR actually rates Tyus Jones as somewhat significantly better than Jeff Teague Jeff Teague’s 2017-2018 rating: 5.51 Tyus Jones’ 2017-2018 Rating: 10.09



Magnified Player: Jeff Teague

Ah, Jeff Teague. Where to start? As a Timberwolves fan who has his pinky latched on to the “Tyus for Starter” bandwagon, I feel little emotion or allegiance to Jeff Teague. It was a meh signing in the first place and a meh signing now.

The problem with Jeff Teague in a Timberwolves uniform is that he simply can’t, or won’t, adapt to the role of an ancillary player. When ideally he should be option 4 on offense, he is essentially functioning as option 2.5, consuming possessions with his stagnating dribbles and his ill-advised playmaking attempts. Both his counting and his advanced statistics are significantly down from last season, for the simple reason that Teague was in the perfect situation in Indiana. On a Pacers team that was essentially comprised of Paul George and nothing else, Teague was free to completely indulge and enact his game in his ideal role: a second-option offensive regulator.

The key difference between Tyus Jones and Jeff Teague is that Jones lets the offense runs through him, whereas Teague runs the offense. With a usage rate of just 12.3, Jones can defer to the dominant scorers and fill the role of a spot-up shooter/offensive safety valve, only conducting the offense when it is necessary. Antithetically, Teague has to play the role of an offensive initiator. While in the right context this is a valuable trait, Teague is nowhere near a dominant enough player to enact this role on a championship-caliber team, and that’s the underlying point of this article. Players like Teague and Rondo, while just a few years ago were championship-caliber point guards, simply no longer fit in an elite NBA offense. Let’s take a look at the following clip:

As evidenced through these clips, Teague runs an offense of complacency. After he has finished running in circles and consuming 12 seconds off the shot clock, he settles to pass it to a teammate in no position to score. His game largely consists of inconsequential passing and movement, and when he decides to shoot the ball himself, he largely disregards his teammates and settles for a bad look.

In the final clip, Teague, with 15 seconds remaining on the shot clock, decides to take a contested free-throw line jumper, rather than passing it out to Andrew Wiggins or Jimmy Butler, who were both wide open on converse sides of the three-point elbow. Adding insult to injury, Teague shoots an abysmal 16.3% on such shots, producing an average of 0.33 points per similar shot, whereas Wiggins and Butler shoot an average of 33.8% from three, creating over a point per similar shot.

All in all, on an elite offense — as the numbers say the Timberwolves are — Teague is not a serviceable point guard because of his possession and time-consuming tendencies.

Category 3: The Annoying Little Brothers

Members: Russell Westbrook, Elfrid Payton

Overview: The name of this group is somewhat vague, but let me explain. Why are little brothers annoying? It’s because they always want to be involved in everything and you can’t do anything without them being a part of it. That’s what these players are like. When they’re in the game, they’re constantly on-ball or in need of the ball to make an impact. When they are without the ball, they have no effect whatsoever on the game.

Average SDM: 108.76

Average TPPA: 2.27

Average Value of Assist: 0.458 pts

Let me preface this paragraph by saying this: on a pure talent standpoint, Russell Westbrook is undeniably an all-NBA level player and a fitting perennial MVP candidate. However, should I be drafting an All-NBA team with the intention of building a championship caliber team, truthfully, I would not draft Westbrook with my first pick.

While I have no doubt in my mind that Russell Westbrook is from whatever planet Giannis and Kevin Durant were genetically formulated on, his game simply does not translate to winning. And yes, while it is an astounding feat for a single player to essentially be accountable for 47 wins in a single season, it is not getting those first 82 wins that truly matters; it’s getting those final 16.

To put it nicely, Russell Westbrook is a very on-ball player. With a usage routinely above thirty and as the all-time record holder in single season usage (41.65 last year), there are few times in the game where the ball is not in Westbrook’s hands. This, however, is not the presage to the downfall in his game. The greatest players in NBA history were ball-dominant players, but there is a key discrepancy between their game and that of Russell Westbrook, and it is that differentiator which places him in this group rather than the first. That differentiator is the ability to be productive off-ball. When LeBron and Steph Curry are setting off ball screens and running all around the court, Westbrook is glued to the constant position of the right three-point elbow.

Test it during a Thunder game. Look where Westbrook stands on offense when he doesn’t have the ball. It’s always that right three-point elbow. His stagnation in regards to off-ball movement forces him to constantly take difficult shots. Already being the sub-par shooter that he is, he is constantly put in a state of difficulty anytime he receives a pass, tanking his true shooting percentage and his SACUMUR score far below the point where a superstar’s should be. Now, to delve further into the flaws in his game, let’s watch the following clip:

As evidenced by the first three plays, the vast majority of Russell Westbrook’s assists are to be accredited as plays made by his teammates, not plays he conducted which allowed his teammates to get an easy look. The first two passes lead to contested looks which his teammates found a way to make, and the third assist shown was caused as a direct result of him possessing the ball so much that every once in a while an assist can be fabricated.

It is because of this that SDM projects a team of Westbrook’s to score only 115 ppg, which is above replacement level, but far from superstar status. In the final clip, we see Westbrook literally dribbling in place for 17 seconds before finally settling for a mid-range jumper. Although he made it in this instance, he shoots that shot at a 14.4% rate, ultimately producing 0.29 points per similar possession. It is this inefficiency and lack of awareness to make the smart play which places Russell Westbrook, a player with all the tools, significantly below the level of a superstar.

Final Thoughts

The dissipation of the pass-first player, the “assisting playmaker” is truly a sad sight to behold. Growing up, some of my fondest basketball memories were watching a young Rajon Rondo playing his heart out on those late 2000’s Celtics teams, or watching Steve Nash fire passes all around the court to those mid 2000’s Suns teams. But the facts are undeniable. The age of the pass-first player has come to a very abrupt halt.

To foster an elite offense in the modern NBA, you can no longer have a drive-and-kick point guard handling the ball for 15 seconds on each possession. You can no longer have a point guard whose range extends to the free-throw line. It’s a sad reality that once-great players, such as Jeff Teague, Rajon Rondo, or Ricky Rubio no longer have a place in the NBA. Even the reigning MVP, Russell Westbrook, has no place on a championship team. The league has passed them by. And as sweet as the memories are, we must overcome our natural human instinct of sentimentalizing the past in order to indulge in the present NBA. It is both the old-timers and the common fan who needs to accept the fact that the sport has evolved; it’s different.

Tentative as humans are to receive change, the sport has matured into a spectacle objectively much greater, far more fascinating. True, it isn’t the basketball we grew up with, it isn’t the basketball our high school coach taught us to play, but it’s still the same sport we love, and as a community, we need to come together and embrace the change.