All of the wedding struggles might be a thing of the past (Picture: Ella Byworth for Metro.co.uk)

To have and to hold, ‘til death do us part.

Marriage has been a key institution in our lives for decades and, as the summer months arrive, our best suits and dresses are being dusted off as we prepare for a season of weekends at country homes, churches and registry offices.

But the number of dates pencilled in your diary this summer for weddings may be fewer than previous years. We’ve seen headlines predicting that marriage will be virtually extinct in the next 30 years.

But will it really?


‘Dying is a strong way of putting it,’ says Dr Philip Cohen of the University of Maryland’s department of sociology.



‘People have become more selective about marriage.’

In 1958, men were married at the average age of 22.6, according to the US Census Bureau, women at 20.2.

Fast forward 60 years and the average age men and women got married for the first time was 29.8 and 27.8 respectively.

At the same time as the average age of people getting married goes up, the actual proportion of people choosing to get married is going down.

In 2017 – the latest year for which statistics are available – just more than half of adults living in England and Wales were married, according to the Office for National Statistics.

That’s down significantly over the years.

There were 243,000 marriages of opposite-sex couples in England and Wales in 2016 – around 4,700 couples each week.

In 1940, 471,000 couples walked down the aisle, with nearly 9,000 marriages per week.

What’s causing this decline in one of the oldest institutions in our society?

‘There are three reasons,’ says Brienna Perelli-Harris, associate professor in demography at the University of Southampton.

‘One is people are just ideologically opposed to it.

‘They just don’t like it anymore. They think it’s patriarchal as an institution. But I don’t think that’s the majority of people.’

For that majority, it’s something a lot less of an opposition to the institution.

‘They just aren’t getting around to it,’ Prof Perelli-Harris says.

‘They would like to get married but at the end of the day they would rather spend their money on something else.’

Priorities such as buying a house or having children are expensive.

The money that would traditionally have been spent on an expensive wedding would, Prof Perelli-Harris believes, be funneled elsewhere.

The third reason is that our commitment to partners has cooled.

The number of unmarried couples with children has increased at the same time as marriage has declined.

Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are still negotiating the terms of their divorce (Picture: Michael Buckner/Getty Images)

Though couples love each other and will even have children together, they’re less willing to get hitched.

‘With Tinder and online dating, people feel like if they’re not in a perfect relationship they should keep their options open and not get married,’ says Prof Perelli-Harris.

People also look at the way in which an increasing number of marriages end and are dissuaded from taking the plunge in the first place.



More than 100,000 couples were divorced in England and Wales in 2017.

Splits can be costly and messy – especially when the union is formalised.

The increased rate of divorce is seen in large part due to demographics.

While in the past we would get married in our 20s and die in our 40s, we may now get married in our 30s, divorce in our 60s – and die in our 90s.

Many people would walk down the aisle expecting to spend 20 or 30 years with their loved one.

Today a marriage could theoretically be a 60-year commitment, or even longer.

Given we live in uncertain times, it is thought that people feel unwilling to commit to long-term relationships for fear that their lives will change fundamentally.

‘When you feel in control of your life and destiny and not unstable and insecure, marriage can be a choice people make that contributes to that security and stability,’ says Dr Cohen.

‘It communicates to people that you have arrived, and you have achieved a certain status to be married and stay married.’

It’s said to be a hangover from the 2008 financial crisis and the polarisation of politics but there have been severe shocks to the economy and politics before.

What’s different between the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and the 1920s Great Depression – after which marriage rates stayed strong – is the role of women in society.

‘Originally, marriage was more of a financial decision,’ says Prof Perelli-Harris.

‘It was the tying together of two families, or a way to make sure women were protected financially and as women have become more educated and more likely to be independent and employed, there isn’t the need to be within a marriage as much.’


With that less the case, the idea of getting married has changed along with it:

‘Marriage is less necessary than it used to be,’ says Cohen.

‘You’re not an outcast if you’re single, and women’s employment prospects have improved a lot. It’s more possible to survive on your own and be a “reasonable” member of society.’

As a result of shifts in society, what marriage represents has changed.

It’s seen as a way to celebrate love and devotion, rather than as a financial or social necessity.

‘There are fewer people pressured into it,’ says Cohen.

‘There’s less coercion into marriage. In the 1950s at the peak of the marriage craze in America, everyone was married by their mid-20s – something like 90% of people.

‘That level of conformity can’t be described as normal.’

That can be seen in the Nordic countries, including Sweden.

Around six in 10 births in the country occur within cohabiting unions, rather than marriage – and all Nordic countries saw a downturn in the number of people getting wed.

‘For a long time it appeared marriage was disappearing,’ says Prof Perelli-Harris.

But a large marriage revival occurred in the early 2000s in all the countries.

A focus group in Norway, conducted by one of Prof Perelli-Harris’s colleagues, were asked why people got married.

‘It was all about romance and love and, in some cases, being able to survive the early years of childhood,’ she says.

‘There’s still this desire to show the couple are committed to each other; it just happens after kids, not before.’


It’s for that reason that experts doubt the idea of marriage will ever go away.

‘In the linear extrapolation of the future, marriage is extinct in the middle of the century,’ says Cohen. But it is unlikely that will actually happen.

‘I think what is likely to happen is it will continue to become a more elite institution and less prevalent.’

Prof Perelli-Harris is more definitive: ‘It might become more rare but I don’t think the institution is going to disappear.’

The Future Of Everything This piece is part of Metro.co.uk's series The Future Of Everything. From OBEs to CEOs, professors to futurologists, economists to social theorists, politicians to multi-award winning academics, we think we had the future covered, away from the doom-mongering or easy Minority Report references. Every week, we explained what's likely (or not likely) to happen. Talk to us using the hashtag #futureofeverything. Though the series is no longer weekly, if you think we might have missed something vital to the future, get in touch: hey@metro.co.uk or Alex.Hudson@metro.co.uk Read every Future Of Everything story

Advertisement Advertisement