

Brexit: no one in control 07/12/2016

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The The New Statesman has published an article with the headline: "Who is the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier?", offering a potted biography.



The answer, of course, is no-one. As



More than a few people have seen in Juncker's action a pre-emptive move in what is the



But, leaving nothing to doubt in an extraordinary act of hubris, the Commission is now describing



Perhaps though, Juncker thinks that by launching Barnier in a high profile role, with a gullible press rolling over and accepting his coup at face value, he will box Tusk into a corner, making it almost impossible for him to choose someone else without a very public and damaging row.



On the other hand, almost daily we are seeing changes to the composition of the European Council. Two of the three figures who so publicly gave homage to Spinelli,



There is also a possibility that the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, will no longer be in charge past the first few months of the negotiations, His second term as president is by no means assured.



All we would need is for Chancellor Merkel to take a fall and we would be dealing with a very different – and more unpredictable – European Council. Junker could find himself with far stiffer opposition that he had anticipated, with the appointment of an entirely new face to manage the negotiations.



That said, yesterday, Barnier was cock of the walk, giving his first "press briefing" in Brussels as usurper-in-chief, setting out his view of how he sees the negotiations developing.



Sadly, as it was a briefing rather than a formal speech, all we got on the publicly-available video was 13 minutes of introductory remarks, spoken in English and then repeated (more or less) in French, with no record of the press questions.



However, the "take home" point was Barnier stating that the settlement would require approval by the Council and the European Parliament, and then ratification by the UK Parliament. He is allowing six months for these processes which, he says, only gives 18 months for substantive negotiations. If Mrs May invokes Article 50 by the end of March, that means that talks



This was much the point made by



Verhofstadt, of course, is another pretender, posing as the European Parliament negotiator, for talks in which the Parliament has no formal status. At best, he can be an observer, taking part in discussions on the margins. He cannot demand a seat at the table, as of right.



Both Verhofstatd and Barnier warn against "cherry-picking", reiterating the now well-worn mantra that the four-freedoms are an integral part of the Single Market and, as such, are non-negotiable. This is something



However, Barnier does not rule out a transitional settlement, although he declined to go into what kind of relationship would be possible. Nevertheless, he cites the example of EEA members, stating that Norway and Iceland indicated how a transitional arrangement could operate.



By coincidence - one assumes - Norwegian foreign minister Børge Brende was in London



Britain must understand that there is no "silver bullet", he said. "Being a part of the Single Market, as we are, also means to implement all directives, and we are not in the room when these directives are decided on", he added.



This is the usual misleading rhetoric, more so as we have never regarded the Efta/EEA route as anything other than the least-worst option, suitable only as an interim settlement. Here, there is some encouragement as Brende concedes that Norway's access to the Single Market "had served our country well". He confirmed that if Britain chose to "go through an EAA agreement", his country would assess its interest.



But what no one is putting together – at least publicly – is the degree to which continued EEA involvement changes the game. It cannot be repeated often enough that the EEA Agreement is a distinct treaty with its own rules, entirely separate from the EU treaties. The UK, following the Efta/EEA path, would be dealing with and entirely different set of actors, outside the Article 50 process. And in that environment, the "four freedoms" are not a fixed quantum, no matter what the Prominenten say.



To that extent, Barnier might have less control than he thinks, and be less capable of influencing events than he likes. With the internal power play between the Council and Commission, and the dynamics of new faces at the table, the outcome becomes a whole lot less predictable than he and the general run of pundits would have it.



That much also applies to the domestic front, where Theresa May, against her own inclinations, has been manoeuvred



Yet, on a visit to Bahrain, Mrs May is



Furthermore, those who understand that the EEA option is almost infinitely flexible will know that her rhetoric does not rule out going in this direction. But, as always, it does not rule it in either. And neither can anything be inferred from Liam Fox's



While Lib-Dem leader Tim Farron believes this is "a clear sign the Government is steering the country towards an economically disastrous hard Brexit",



What that says is that reality remains in the driving seat, while none of the players are totally in control – not even the Supreme Court, which seems to be so distant from real world issues that, by the time it delivers its judgement, we will probably have forgotten what it was ruling on.



There is still a very long way to go and about the only thing about which we can be sure is that the direction of travel is anyone's guess. As we have seen, and The answer, of course, is no-one. As we pointed out at the time of Barnier's supposed appointment, until Article 50 is invoked, the chief negotiator cannot be appointed. Then, rather than the Commission making the appointment, the post is entirely within the gift of the European Council - the leaders of the 27 Member States who will decide on the outcome of the negotiations.More than a few people have seen in Juncker's action a pre-emptive move in what is the ongoing power struggle between Council and Commission, with the Commission getting in first to stake its claim.But, leaving nothing to doubt in an extraordinary act of hubris, the Commission is now describing their man as "Chief Negotiator with the United Kingdom under Article 50 of the TEU", an arrogant presumption that deserves to be slapped down with little ceremony.Perhaps though, Juncker thinks that by launching Barnier in a high profile role, with a gullible press rolling over and accepting hisat face value, he will box Tusk into a corner, making it almost impossible for him to choose someone else without a very public and damaging row.On the other hand, almost daily we are seeing changes to the composition of the European Council. Two of the three figures who so publicly gave homage to Spinelli, back in August ,will no longer be around when the negotiations get under way.There is also a possibility that the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, will no longer be in charge past the first few months of the negotiations, His second term as president is by no means assured.All we would need is for Chancellor Merkel to take a fall and we would be dealing with a very different – and more unpredictable – European Council. Junker could find himself with far stiffer opposition that he had anticipated, with the appointment of an entirely new face to manage the negotiations.That said, yesterday, Barnier was cock of the walk, giving his first "press briefing" in Brussels as usurper-in-chief, setting out his view of how he sees the negotiations developing.Sadly, as it was a briefing rather than a formal speech, all we got on the publicly-available video was 13 minutes of introductory remarks, spoken in English and then repeated (more or less) in French, with no record of the press questions.However, the "take home" point was Barnier stating that the settlement would require approval by the Council and the European Parliament, and then ratification by the UK Parliament. He is allowing six months for these processes which, he says, only gives 18 months for substantive negotiations. If Mrs May invokes Article 50 by the end of March, that means that talks must be wrapped up by October 2018.This was much the point made by Guy Verhofstatd , when he recently warned that there would be an "intense" window of 14-15 months for negotiations which "need to be finished in any case before the next European elections (in May 2019)".Verhofstadt, of course, is another pretender, posing as the European Parliament negotiator, for talks in which the Parliament has no formal status. At best, he can be an observer, taking part in discussions on the margins. He cannot demand a seat at the table, as of right.Both Verhofstatd and Barnier warn against "cherry-picking", reiterating the now well-worn mantra that the four-freedoms are an integral part of the Single Market and, as such, are non-negotiable. This is something Angela Merkel has also been keen to repeat.However, Barnier does not rule out a transitional settlement, although he declined to go into what kind of relationship would be possible. Nevertheless, he cites the example of EEA members, stating that Norway and Iceland indicated how a transitional arrangement could operate.By coincidence - one assumes - Norwegian foreign minister Børge Brende was in London on Monday to meet Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox for talks over post-EU future. Predictably, for a Norwegian conservative with long-standing Europhile tendencies, he took a downbeat view of UK following his country's path.Britain must understand that there is no "silver bullet", he said. "Being a part of the Single Market, as we are, also means to implement all directives, and we are not in the room when these directives are decided on", he added.This is the usual misleading rhetoric, more so as we have never regarded the Efta/EEA route as anything other than the least-worst option, suitable only as an interim settlement. Here, there is some encouragement as Brende concedes that Norway's access to the Single Market "had served our country well". He confirmed that if Britain chose to "go through an EAA agreement", his country would assess its interest.But what no one is putting together – at least publicly – is the degree to which continued EEA involvement changes the game. It cannot be repeated often enough that the EEA Agreement is a distinct treaty with its own rules, entirely separate from the EU treaties. The UK, following the Efta/EEA path, would be dealing with and entirely different set of actors, outside the Article 50 process. And in that environment, the "four freedoms" are not a fixed quantum, no matter what thesay.To that extent, Barnier might have less control than he thinks, and be less capable of influencing events than he likes. With the internal power play between the Council and Commission, and the dynamics of new faces at the table, the outcome becomes a whole lot less predictable than he and the general run of pundits would have it.That much also applies to the domestic front, where Theresa May, against her own inclinations, has been manoeuvred into promising to present her exit plan to MPs before she invokes Article 50 in March. This is being regarded in some quarters as "a major climb down" to avoid a humiliating Tory rebellion in the Commons today during an opposition day debate Yet, on a visit to Bahrain, Mrs May is talking of a "red, white and blue" Brexit, thereby scotching ideas of a so-called "grey Brexit". This was a half-baked idea which was being floated over the weekend, involving a CETA-like agreement with the EU. It has not even survived into mid-week.Furthermore, those who understand that the EEA option is almost infinitely flexible will know that her rhetoric does not rule out going in this direction. But, as always, it does not rule it in either. And neither can anything be inferred from Liam Fox's announcement that he intends to shadow the EU's WTO schedules of commitments.While Lib-Dem leader Tim Farron believes this is "a clear sign the Government is steering the country towards an economically disastrous hard Brexit", The Sun reports that Fox is launching a bid "to join [the] World Trade Organisation as independent member". Despite the rampant ignorance, though, this is a necessary administrative step towards independence, very much along the lines we envisaged What that says is that reality remains in the driving seat, while none of the players are totally in control – not even the Supreme Court, which seems to be so distant from real world issues that, by the time it delivers its judgement, we will probably have forgotten what it was ruling on.There is still a very long way to go and about the only thing about which we can be sure is that the direction of travel is anyone's guess. As we have seen, and continue to see , the pundits have an unerring capacity for getting it wrong, while even the best are finding the way hard to divine. It would have been better had it inserted a comma, making the header read: "Who is the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier?" By that means, it would have been addressing Mr Barnier, posing a very relevant question.





