Will California lose some deep-pocketed foreign tourists?

International tensions between the Trump administration and major trading partners could be bad news for the state’s tourism trade, a key part of the economy. In 2015, tourism employed 1 million people statewide and represented $1 of every $40 created by the California economy, according to the latest stats available from the VisitCalifornia tourist bureau.

Yes, it’s purely speculative to say whether heated geopolitical rhetoric or travel limitations will scare away any meaningful portion of the 17 million who visited California from foreign lands in 2015. But there’s $24 billion in yearly international tourist spending at risk.

Foreign visitors are just 6 percent of all California tourists, but their business impact is amplified by their heavy spending – $1,400 per visit vs. $400 each for domestic visitors. Those hefty foreign budgets account for 22 percent of all tourism spending in the state, according to VisitCalifornia.

International visitors are a growing business. The foreign slice of the state’s tourism dollars is up from 18 percent mid-recession in 2009 and 15 percent in 2003, shortly after the 2001 terror attacks and the ensuing war in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Adding to problematic trade tensions is that some of California’s most-lucrative tourists come from nations where the new administration and foreign leadership haven’t exactly seen eye-to-eye.

If a tourist here is foreign, they’re likely a Mexican. You’ve heard about that proposed border wall, yes? That’s irked Mexico, home to 7.8 million visitors to California in 2015, or roughly 4-in-9 of the state’s foreign visitors. But these guests don’t spend much, – just $397 per visit. That adds up to $3.1 billion of Mexican cash coming here, or 13 percent of California’s foreign tourism spending.

Political squabbles with China over military and trade issues are no help. China’s 1.16 million visitors to California are heavy spenders: $2,191 per trip – adding up to $2.5 billion or 10 percent of foreign tourist spending.

And then there are the Middle Eastern nations targeted by proposed travel limits, as well as neighboring lands, where U.S. anxieties about Muslims also could alter travel plans. All Middle Eastern nations combined contributed just 286,000 visitors to the state in 2015, but these tourists are the biggest spenders: $2,379 per visit. It was business worth $681 million, or 3 percent of the total pie.

California’s economy has many links to the global business world, leaving the state’s business climate very vulnerable to any negative ripple effect of new “America First” policy endeavors.

That’s why folks in the leisure and hospitality business aren’t sleeping well these days.

Contact the writer: jlansner@scng.com