Go inside the numbers and matchups that will decide Game 1 on Friday night, and then vote for which team will win at the bottom of the page.

What we learned in the Division Series

It's not necessarily a surprise these two teams are here -- after all, they ranked 1-2 in the AL in rotation ERA in the regular season -- but it may be a bit surprising that both teams are here after sweeping their Division Series, with the Indians sweeping the Red Sox despite their depleted rotation. This series may come down to the bullpens: How effective will Toronto's be, and how many innings will Terry Francona be able to get out of his top guys? -- David Schoenfield

Inside the pitching matchup

Tale of the tape: ALCS Game 1 starters Marco Estrada 2016 stats Corey Kluber 3.48 ERA 3.14 1.12 WHIP 1.06 .203 Opp BA .216 2.54 K/BB 3.98 3.4 WAR 6.5

When Marco Estrada is on the mound: Estrada took a shutout into the ninth inning against the Rangers in the AL Division Series, expertly keeping the Rangers off balance with his upper-80s fastball and seemingly unhittable changeup, maybe the best in the game.

He throws it at 75 to 78 mph, and Estrada has the ability to manipulate the changeup to both sides of the plate, so it's moving away from lefties on the outside corner and also away from righties on the outside corner to them. Batters hit just .159 against it with a 32 percent strikeout rate. He mixes in a curveball and a cutter that he threw about 10 percent of time in the regular season but just twice against the Rangers.

Estrada had the second-highest fly ball rate among qualified starters in the majors, so he doesn't give up a lot of hits (fly balls go for hits less often than grounders). The key to beating him is hoping a couple of those fly balls leave the park. That could play into Cleveland's hands as the Indians crushed at Progessive Field, hitting .288/.359/.469 at home as opposed to .236/.300/.391 on the road. -- Schoenfield

When Corey Kluber is on the mound: Kluber left his final start of the regular season with a right quad strain but certainly looked at full strength against the Red Sox, throwing seven scoreless innings in Game 2. He's starting Friday on six days' rest.

Kluber's best pitch is one of the most dominant in baseball: A curveball (some call it a slider) that held batters to a .099 average and that recorded a strikeout rate of 52.8 percent. He buries it low and away from righties, and over the past three seasons batters have hit .106 against it with just five home runs. With two strikes, he throws the curveball about a third of the time, so batters can't just zero in on it. He also throws a fastball, a cutter and an occasional changeup.

It will be interesting to see Kluber's pitch selection against the right-handed heavy Toronto lineup. The Blue Jays hammered him in a July start, knocking him out in the fourth inning, when he threw a lot of fastballs and cutters. Facing them in August, he threw 40 percent fastballs and 40 percent curves, but also walked four batters in 6 2/3 innings.

One thing to watch: Kluber has always pitched much better from the windup than with runners on base. The splits weren't as drastic this year, but he held batters to a .587 OPS with nobody on versus .735 with runners in scoring position. Batters also hit .339 and slugged .578 when putting the first pitch in play, although the Red Sox swung at only three first pitches. -- Schoenfield

Player in the spotlight

Josh Donaldson scored the winning run in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Rangers. Dan Hamilton/USA TODAY Sports

Josh Donaldson. The 2015 MVP ended the regular season in a slump as he played through a hip injury in September. He went 7-for-13 against the Rangers, including four doubles, played good defense, and made that mad dash home to secure the series. He may not be 100 percent, but in the ALDS he looked better than he had in weeks. -- Schoenfield

What will decide Friday night's game

Corey Kluber finished the season 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA. Paul Sancya/AP Photo

The start could determine the end in this series. The Indians are 0-4 all-time in Game 1 of the ALCS. They're the only team to have played in multiple LCS without winning a Game 1 and are 2-2 in their four ALCS series.

-- Sarah Langs, ESPN Stats & Info

Did You Know?

Corey Kluber went heavy on his fastball in his first playoff start this year, throwing it 63 percent of the time, his third-highest rate this season (including the regular season). He had five K's on the pitch, tied for his second-most this season. And he did it against the Red Sox, a team that had the best BA and second-best OPS on the pitch in the regular season.

Can he quiet another fastball-hitting team? The Blue Jays hit fastballs for homers the second-most frequently of any team in the majors this season (trailing only the Orioles). Their 20.1 AB per homer on fastballs were second; by comparison, the Marlins had 44.5 AB per homer on fastballs.

-- Sarah Langs, ESPN Stats & Info

ALCS betting guide

Toronto Blue Jays (-145) vs. Cleveland Indians (+125)

Joe Peta: The Boston Red Sox, without debate, have a better, younger and more potent lineup than the Blue Jays. The rotations, from 1-4, are very similar in their mediocrity, and given Toronto's loss of Joaquin Benoit for the playoffs, I'd give a mild bullpen edge to the Red Sox as well. Toronto has a much better defense, which makes its pitchers' effective ERAs even better than their skill sets would indicate, but, in comparison to Boston, it's nowhere near enough of a runs allowed reduction to offset the materially more runs the Red Sox's offense would score during the course of a season. All of which is to say, if you thought the Indians were vastly undervalued, or even miscast as an underdog in the ALDS, you pretty much have to come to the same conclusion for the ALCS. Click here for more.

Choosing sides: Who will win?

The Indians will be challenged to win four games against a stacked Toronto lineup in this series, but you have to like their chances in Game 1. Corey Kluber dominated the Red Sox on 10 days' rest in the division series, and he's fully recovered from the strained quadriceps that forced him to take a break at the end of the regular season. Kluber pitched well against the Jays in a 3-2 win at Progressive Field in August (after getting shelled in a 17-1 loss at Rogers Centre in July). He'll embrace the role of staff ace in the series opener, hand the ball to Andrew Miller and the bullpen, and get the Indians off to a good start. -- Jerry Crasnick

It is hard to call a Game 1 a must-win for any team, but the Indians probably need this one a little more. I think they'll get it with Kluber on the mound. If you look at Cleveland's pitching, Kluber is by far their best starter. If Kluber can give them a strong seven innings and they don't have to use Miller, it would set the Indians up in Game 2 to go to Miller for a couple of innings and really shorten the game. Kluber could set the tone for this series with a strong outing. I say he'll do it. -- Andrew Marchand

Where the series stands

The Indians went 53-28 at home and 41-39 on the road, so it seems that Kluber pitching at home is their optimal matchup for a win. If he pitches deep into the game, it would also give manager Terry Francona the ability to rely more on his bullpen in Game 2. -- Schoenfield