The cost to build a one-stop subway extension in Scarborough has climbed to at least $3.35 billion as the estimate of new people expected to be drawn to the line has fallen.

Those numbers — updated in a new city staff report released Tuesday that had previously been delayed for months — have drawn fresh questions of value for money and providing the most transit for Scarborough residents as Mayor John Tory continued to defend the project Tuesday.

Though Tory and allies pitched that an additional light rail line could be funded amid accusations the subway was a boondoggle, the updated cost leaves that LRT line $1.4 billion short on funding, putting that promised project in limbo.

According to the new report, the subway extension is now expected to attract 2,300 new daily riders, if aligned as recommended along McCowan Ave., compared to the existing Scarborough RT, which needs to be replaced. That means the city would be paying approximately $1.45 million for every new rider to build the subway extension.

The overall updated cost is a $150 million increase over the earlier $3.2 billion estimate, and doesn’t include the cost of financing.

The new estimate includes significant changes to a planned bus terminal at a new Scarborough Town Centre station which staff said requires 34 bus bays — the largest bus terminal in the entire TTC network.

However, staff said in the report that because the new $3.35 billion estimate is still based on very little design work being completed at this point, the range of accuracy for that estimate is massive. The estimate, staff said, could be off by up to 50 per cent — putting the high-end estimate at $5.02 billion.

The mayor did not accept the notion that the cost of the subway project had increased, telling reporters he took “polite exception” to the suggestion. He said the decision to pay $187 million above earlier estimates for an underground bus terminal that would be needed to accommodate transfers at the new subway stop should be considered “entirely separate or apart from any discussion of the cost of the subway.”

Despite the wide range of accuracy on the estimate, Tory rejected the possibility that the cost of the subway extension could rise again.

Asked whether there was any cost that would be too much to spend on the one-stop extension, Tory said: “I’m just not going to get into that.”

“I’m saying that I want to lead an administration with my colleagues that actually gets on with building this instead of endless debates. People are tired of endless debates. They’ve seen endless debates go on and the bottom line of that has been no transit.”

The price of six kilometres of tunnel ending in a single subway stop addition to the Bloor-Danforth line has moved closer to the $3.56 billion committed from all three levels of government for Scarborough transit.

The plan had changed significantly since its inception in the previous term of council, shrinking from a three-stop extension to a single stop. And with the subway cost taken into account there is just over $200 million in the $3.56-billion funding envelope left over for the 17-stop Eglinton East LRT that Tory pitched as part of a compromise Scarborough network plan last year. That line is estimated to cost at least $1.6 billion.

Tory said the unfunded LRT line remains a “fundamental part of our transit network plan. It’s going to be built” and that he was counting on the federal and provincial governments to “come forward” and fund the project.

Those governments have not yet signaled any willingness to pay for that project. It’s unclear how council will pay for it with $33 billion in approved but unfunded capital projects on the books.

Councillors, advocates and academics critical of the subway plan have noted the same money could serve more residents by building a network of LRT lines that would reach low-income neighbourhoods, both the Centennial College and University of Toronto Scarborough campuses, and provide local transit for which city staff has outlined demand.

That includes the original plan to replace the Scarborough RT with a seven-stop LRT running in the same corridor, apart from traffic. That project, estimated at $1.48 billion in 2010 dollars would have been fully-funded by the province. The remaining city share of $910 million, plus a commitment from the federal government for $660 million would almost cover all of the cost of the Eglinton East line.

“There seems to be a blank cheque for a politically-motivated one-stop subway project,” said Councillor Josh Matlow, who has advocated for a return to the original seven-stop LRT and LRT network approach.

“I’m just not interested in trying to find some compromise that will result in wasting people’s money and leaving Scarborough residents on the bus . . . The ballooning costs of this one-stop subway will affect all of our many other priorities that are currently underfunded. That’s just a reckless way to budget.”

Councillor Gord Perks noted Tory promised residents both a one-stop subway and the Eglinton East LRT line within the $3.56 billion cost.

“The mayor owes Torontonians an explanation for why he deceived them,” he said.

Councillor Joe Mihevc, who was previously supportive of the revised network plan, said he believes the subway is not the “wisest expenditure of scarce public resources,” but he doesn’t believe council has changed its mind on the original subway versus LRT debate. And that is unlikely to change with both the federal and provincial governments staking political claims on the subway, he said.

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“Frankly, that’s a tragedy of our times,” he said. “There’s just too many political interests that have interfered.”

The auditor general is investigating the flawed process that led to the approval of the subway after a public complaint.

The updated numbers and plan for building the subway will be heard at executive committee next week and debated at council later this month.

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