Clusters of fatal stabbings are unpredictable but not entirely random, say experts

It has become a familiar cycle to many now: a spate of fatal stabbings, tragic stories of young lives lost, calls for more police, a government minister responds, the violence abates, media reports settle, repeat.

The most recent fatal stabbings – claiming the lives of 17-year-olds Jodie Chesney and Yousef Makki – have seen that cycle kickstart again.

There have been 10 teenagers and children killed so far in 2019, after 37 were killed in 2018, and 39 in 2017.

It is hard to predict whether the number killed in 2019 will match the peak of 2007, when 48 children aged 19 and under were killed by use of knives. This is because knife-related deaths tend happen in clusters, and are not evenly spread throughout the year.

Richard Garside, the director of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, said the clusters are both geographical and temporal. “It tends to come in little bursts. Retaliation is a factor with turf wars going on. These short bursts are a feature of knife violence.

Met police chief says rising violent crime and officer cuts are linked Read more

“It’s a social contagion. There’s a stabbing and there’s a retaliation and then a retaliation to that. It’s quite unpredictable, but it’s not entirely random, because we’re talking about specific groups of people in certain areas.”

But why is the cycle of deaths not being broken? The front pages this week have focused on falling police numbers. Those in policing have called for more resources. Home Office statistics show the number of police officers fell from their peak of 144,353 in 2009 to 122,404 in March 2018.

Home Office research leaked to the Guardian last year found that falling officer numbers are likely to be “an underlying driver that has allowed the rise [in violent crime] to continue”. Other studies agree, such as that undertaken by the Police Foundation, an independent policing thinktank, which concluded: “it is clear that the cuts imposed in the years of austerity have substantially diminished the effectiveness of neighbourhood policing in many areas.”

The link between officer numbers and rising violent crime has been challenged by Theresa May and other ministers. It is that the statistics create some room for doubt. Violent crime as recorded by police has been increasing since 2014 but was falling between 2009 and 2014 – as police officer numbers were being cut. And in 2008, when police numbers were at a high, knife deaths of teenagers and children were higher than they had been over the last 10 years.

If it is accepted that falling police officers are relevant to rising crime, to focus solely on officer numbers would be to ignore a wide range of underlying issues. All of those factors can also be linked to cuts in public spending.

The government’s own serious violent crime strategy states that, like other types of crime and antisocial behaviour, violent crime has a clear link to “poor life outcomes”.

Low educational attainment, poor health, including mental health, unemployment, socio-economic factors, weak ties to family and exclusion rates all have links to violent crime.

Alongside policing budgets, funding for early intervention services, which could go some way to tackling some of the other related issues, is also being cut. A landmark report, Turning the Tide, produced by Action for Children, the Children’s Society and National Children’s Bureau, revealed that, between 2010-11 and 2015-16, spending on early intervention fell in real terms by 40%. Funding of Sure Start centres, which would provide access to early intervention services, halved over eight years.

So what is being done? The government published its serious violence strategy nearly a year ago. The strategy contained 61 commitments for further action, including a £22m early intervention youth fund and a new £3.6m national county lines coordination centre.

The strategy was backed by an offensive weapons bill, which is currently before parliament and will introduce new offences to help tackle knife crime and violent attacks using acids and other corrosive substances.

Other measures have been introduced such as knife crime prevention orders, under which children as young as 12 could be hit with new antisocial behaviour-style orders designed to clamp down on knife violence.

Experts put more weight on the youth service side of the response than the hardline law enforcement approach.

Dr Tim Bateman, a reader in youth justice at the University of Bedfordshire, said: “Studies consistently show that young people carry weapons when they feel that they need to protect themselves. This creates a vicious cycle where perceptions of safety are influenced by the extent to which children feel that their peers are armed: once some young people start to carry knives, it is more likely that others will do so.

“This process has in recent years been exacerbated by a massive contraction in youth service provision, leading to a sharp decline in the availability of constructive activities for young people, resulting in many of them spending more time on the street where risks may be higher.

“Knife crime solutions need to focus on the environments in which young people spend their time, ensuring access to a range of leisure pursuits and the establishment of safe places where children can congregate without feeling the need to constantly look over their shoulder or carry weapons.”

What remaining options are there? Sajid Javid, the home secretary, said on Monday he will soon launch a consultation on a new statutory public health duty to combat violent crime and help protect young people.

Treating knife crime as a public health issue has been successful in Scotland – but there have been warnings that applying the exact same approach in English cities would not be effective so it would take a tailored approach for it to be a success.