After quietly blossoming in the 2016 second half, Oakland Athletics infielder Ryon Healy is a fascinating test case for 2017. He entered last season well outside of the A’s top-10 prospects, a 24-year-old former Oregon Duck who spent the entire previous season at AA Midland. As we now know, Healy made some crucial swing adjustments in the 2015-2016 offseason and proceeded to hit .338/.409/.628 (AVG/OBP/SLG) at Double-A, earning a promotion to Triple-A, and to the Majors in mid-July.

Undeterred, Healy compiled a .305/.337/.524 line with 13 HR in 74 games playing at 3B. Despite the somewhat low 4.2% BB rate, he was a cheap source of power and batting average down the stretch. Like so many small-sample performers before him, Healy could easily prove to be a flash in the pan. With at least some evidence of hard contact, though, the big righty has a chance to prove that his 2016 half-season was no fluke and return value for fantasy owners.

Practice fast mock drafts with our fantasy baseball software >>

The Basics

The consensus rankings have Ryon Healy as the 160th overall player, and the 19th ranked 3B. Healy sits at 203rd off the board in the current consensus ADP, though his 272 ADP at CBS brings down the average significantly. As expected, the consensus projections are somewhat skeptical of Healy’s production, forecasting a drop of more than 30 points in batting average and a significant decrease in HR rate.

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG 2016 283 36 13 37 0 .305 2017 Projected 482 60 17 64 1 .271

If it’s speed you’re looking for in your draft, move along. The one projected steal would bring Healy to four total in his professional career.

Considering that many full-time players eclipse 550 at-bats, it is also apparent that the composite projections are not granting everyday playing time for Healy. Betting on Healy amounts to expecting him to beat his playing time projection, as well as buying into his 2016 production.

The Team Context

Though he hit near the bottom of the order shortly after his debut, Ryon Healy worked his way up and was frequently hitting third, fourth or fifth by the end of the season. He is currently projected to bat third in the A’s “go-to” lineup, getting the majority of his at-bats at DH.

Having signed Trevor Plouffe this offseason, Healy is not expected to see many games at 3B, but he will likely platoon with Yonder Alonso at 1B. GM David Frost had previously hinted as much, so near everyday playing time seems probable, especially if he can maintain solid performance.

With the majority of his at-bats coming in the heart of the order, Healy should see plenty of R and RBI opportunities, even on a mediocre Athletics offense. In addition to carrying 3B eligibility into 2017, he should add 1B early in the season and provide some lineup flexibility to owners.

The Risk

One need not look far to find examples of prospects who succeed at Double-A and Triple-A and fall flat in the majors. Scores of examples also exist of players who achieve immediate success in their debut seasons and fail to build upon that success. Ryon Healy’s projections already include a significant amount of regression, and contribute to his modest ADP.

Healy spent nearly half the 2016 season in the majors, and while he got off to a slow start, he never experienced a prolonged slump. Perhaps the biggest risk for Healy in 2017 is opposing pitchers establishing a scouting report that can be used to expose him.

A quick check of Healy’s runs above average per 100 pitches (RAA/100P) heatmap from FanGraphs shows that he struggled on outside pitches, but also swung on fewer outside pitches than inside pitches. It seems opposing pitchers could choose to pitch Healy outside until he shows that he can cover the plate.

Outside pitches or otherwise, Healy will be forced to make an adjustment to sustain success. The good news for fantasy owners is that he has already shown the ability to transform himself to get better.

The Reward

In comparing Ryon Healy’s 2016 performance with his 2017 projection, batted-ball luck must also be considered. His .352 BABIP ranks him in the top 10% of batters with at least 250 plate appearances in 2016. At first blush, this BABIP would appear primed for regression.

According to the excellent xStats.org maintained by Andrew Perpetua, which calculates batted-ball outcomes by vertical and horizontal launch angle and Statcast exit velocity and estimates a player’s “deserved” outcomes, Healy earned a .378 BABIP and a .326 xAVG. For the moment, these stats should be considered somewhat experimental, but they do indicate that Healy was not lucky with his 2016 results, and in fact, may have been a bit unlucky.

A closer look at the raw Baseball Savant leaderboard shows that Healy has very close to average exit velocity. His stellar 2016 xStats outcomes, therefore, must be a result of a favorable launch angle distribution. Indeed, his rate of “Barrels” per batted-ball is 10.1%, a solidly above average mark.

An expected isolated slugging (xISO) tool that I maintain incorporates the barrels metric, and largely believes Healy’s .219 ISO from 2016. While the year-to-year stability of these launch angle and exit velocity combinations is not yet known, it is at least encouraging that Healy’s 2016 batting line was supported by more than luck. Adding in the more optimistic playing time expectation, I believe all this warrants a more optimistic projection than appears in the composite. Here is my estimate:

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG 2017 Projected 560 74 21 79 1 .280

Ideally, fantasy owners should not pay for this projection but hope to snag a bargain later in drafts. The optimistic projection would vault Healy near the top-10 of third basemen, with production comparable to the likes of Anthony Rendon, Matt Carpenter, Adrian Beltre and Justin Turner, who are taken, on average, between picks 70 and 111.

The Verdict

Ryon Healy will not provide any fantasy value on the base paths. He will start with 3B eligibility and likely earn 1B in-season, so he will need to hit for power to claim a spot in starting lineups. Although he was not a top prospect, adjustments and stellar performance in the high minors gave him a chance to shine upon being called up to the majors mid-season in 2016.

It would be unwise to expect a repeat of a .300 batting average, but our nascent Statcast-based batted-ball metrics suggest that Healy’s 2016 was no fluke. If he can maintain his profile and make adjustments as opposing teams learn more about him, Ryon Healy is an excellent middle-round target for owners looking to fill a corner infield slot, or for those who choose to wait on a third baseman.

Check out all of our 2017 fantasy baseball player profiles >>



Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | Google Play

Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.