WITH the bye weeks in the rear view mirror, it’s time to look to the end of the road.

There are 10 rounds left in the home and away season and in one of the tightest seasons on record, every game matters.

Welcome to The Run Home, where foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw and which clubs could be in trouble based on a tough last couple of months?

Finals Week 1

Here’s how we think it will play out.

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES

First Qualifying Final: GWS Giants v Richmond

First Elimination Final: Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans

Second Elimination Final: Port Adelaide v Melbourne

Second Qualifying Final: Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats

PROJECTED LADDER

Rank Club Record 1 GWS 19-3 2 ADE 17-5 3 GEE 14-8 4 RIC 14-8 5 WB 14-8 6 PA 13-9 7 MEL 13-9 8 SYD 13-9 9 ESS 13-9 10 WC 13-9 11 COL 10-12 12 STK 10-12 13 FRE 8-14 14 NM 7-15 15 GC 7-15 16 CAR 6-16 17 HAW 5-17 18 BL 2-20

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THE TOP EIGHT

1. Adelaide Crows (9-3, 141.8%)

Remaining games: Hawthorn at AO, Carlton at MCG, Western Bulldogs at AO, Melbourne at TIO, Geelong Cats at AO, Collingwood at MCG, Port Adelaide at AO, Essendon at ES, Sydney Swans at AO, West Coast Eagles at Subiaco

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fifth (five Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 103.37)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 93.9

IT feels as if the race for top spot is down to two. The Crows are in the box seat, ahead of GWS, but their fixture is the toughest of the current top eight sides. Thankfully for them, most of their tough opponents (Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Sydney) will be visitors. Add in the Showdown and if the Crows can defend their fortress, they’re set for a smooth run to September. That could prove vital for them given their struggles against Geelong in recent years — with the Cats appearing to be the most likely third-placed side, they’d surely love to avoid them if possible in the finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: Eight wins, finishing second (17-5)

2. GWS Giants (9-3, 116.4%)

Remaining games: Brisbane Lions at Gabba, Geelong Cats at Spotless, Hawthorn at UTAS, Sydney Swans at Spotless, Richmond at MCG, Fremantle at Spotless, Melbourne at UNSW, Western Bulldogs at ES, West Coast Eagles at Spotless, Geelong Cats at Simonds

Remaining fixture difficulty: Ninth (five Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 98.49)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 93.9

THE Giants almost certainly won’t win every game from here until season’s end. It’s just too tough to do that. But they’re likely going to be favourites in every game from here until September, so we’re not going to randomly tip an upset, and the draw isn’t too bad — two games against Geelong would appear to be the most difficult. Injuries remain the great unknown. Were they to blame for the shock loss to Carlton? And with Josh Kelly and Jacob Hopper now joining the long injury list, there’s a potential for slip-ups. It’s hard to see them missing the top two though unless they lose twice to the Cats.

Fox Footy’s projection: Ten wins, finishing first (19-3)

3. Geelong Cats (8-4, 114.8%)

Remaining games: Fremantle at Simonds, GWS Giants at Spotless, Brisbane Lions at Gabba, Hawthorn at MCG, Adelaide Crows at AO, Carlton at ES, Sydney Swans at Simonds, Richmond at Simonds, Collingwood at MCG, GWS Giants at Simonds

Remaining fixture difficulty: 14th (four Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 99.95)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 91.7

A KIND draw and a one win headstart should be enough to earn the Cats a top four spot from here, unless you think their loss to West Coast can’t be blamed on the combination of playing away and Tom Hawkins not playing at all. The Cats have games remaining against the bottom two as well as Fremantle and Carlton, which should be enough to jump over that magical mark of 12 wins. But their last month will be the most telling of the season, with visits to the Cattery by Sydney, Richmond and GWS. Those games are all very loseable; but holding fort at home should see the Cats into a qualifying final.

Fox Footy’s projection: Six wins, finishing third on percentage (14-8)

4. Port Adelaide (7-5, 134.4%)

Remaining games: Collingwood at MCG, Richmond at AO, West Coast Eagles at Subiaco, North Melbourne at AO, Melbourne at MCG, St Kilda at AO, Adelaide Crows at AO, Collingwood at AO, Western Bulldogs at EU, Gold Coast Suns at AO

Remaining fixture difficulty: 10th (four Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 104.57)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 75.9

THIS is where things get interesting. One win separates the Power in fourth from Fremantle in 11th right now — throw in Sydney and Collingwood in 12th and 13th with positive percentages and we have 10 plausible contenders for the final top four spot, if you assume the top three will hold onto their places. Port Adelaide still has the advantage of that excellent percentage, plus six of their remaining games are at home. Because of those factors, they’re likely to be at least around 12 wins and their percentage should then help them win any ties. They’re a very good chance of playing finals, even if you don’t think they’re a true flag contender this season.

Fox Footy’s projection: Six wins, finishing sixth on percentage (13-9)

5. Melbourne (7-5, 115.7%)

Remaining games: West Coast Eagles at Subiaco, Sydney Swans at MCG, Carlton at MCG, Adelaide Crows at TIO, Port Adelaide at MCG, North Melbourne at BA, GWS Giants at UNSW, St Kilda at MCG, Brisbane Lions at MCG, Collingwood at MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 11th (four Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 104.29)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 75.9

IT’S still not an easy path to September for the Demons because while they currently sit fifth and have a reasonable draw left, the teams below them (for the most part) have even easier ones. There’s also that element of trust. Can they win on the road and can they take down more contenders? A pair of wins over the next fortnight and Melbourne is a real top four chance; a pair of losses and suddenly they’re needing to win every game they’re favoured in. That has been an issue in recent years. It would be ideal if they didn’t have to rely on winning their last three matches to play finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: Six wins, finishing seventh on percentage (13-9)

6. Richmond (7-5, 109.7%)

Remaining games: Carlton at MCG, Port Adelaide at AO, St Kilda at ES, Brisbane Lions at ES, GWS Giants at MCG, Gold Coast Suns at MS, Hawthorn at MCG, Geelong Cats at Simonds, Fremantle at Subiaco, St Kilda at MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 17th (three Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 95.17)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 75.9

YES, Richmond lost another close game, but the second-easiest remaining fixture should still mean it plays finals. There are only three really tough games left — Port Adelaide and Geelong away, plus GWS at the MCG — but then it’s just about beating teams they really should be beating. The optimist’s view on the Tigers is that while their close losses are problematic, they also show that this is a very good team that has been in every game (except the loss to Adelaide). So can they just pull out a few close ones? If they do, they could be top four bound.

Fox Footy’s projection: Seven wins, finishing fourth on percentage (14-8)

7. West Coast Eagles (7-5, 102.6%)

Remaining games: Melbourne at Subiaco, Western Bulldogs at ES, Port Adelaide at Subiaco, Fremantle at Subiaco, Collingwood at ES, Brisbane Lions at Subiaco, St Kilda at ES, Carlton at Subiaco, GWS Giants at Spotless, Adelaide Crows at Subiaco

Remaining fixture difficulty: 13th (four Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 103.26)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 75.9

THEY’VE won seven games so far and have six to play at home. But even that might not be enough with our projections seeing five teams tied on 13 wins from fifth to tenth. Of course, that counts on very few upsets happening, and the Eagles at home are more trustworthy than most other sides are. But this team hasn’t been a scoring powerhouse and if it does come down to percentage they may not be very well-placed. Plus, home games against teams like Adelaide, Melbourne and Port Adelaide aren’t sure things either.

Fox Footy’s projection: Six wins, finishing tenth on percentage (13-9)

8. Essendon (6-6, 102.9%)

Remaining games: Sydney Swans at SCG, Brisbane Lions at ES, Collingwood at MCG, St Kilda at ES, North Melbourne at ES, Western Bulldogs at ES, Carlton at MCG, Adelaide Crows at ES, Gold Coast Suns at MS, Fremantle at ES

Remaining fixture difficulty: 18th (one Top 8 team, opponents’ average percentage of 95.26)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 45.6

WE can’t pick upsets. If we could, they wouldn’t be upsets. But we know they’ll happen and Essendon is the best-placed side to take advantage of upsets with a very kind run home. The Bombers have clearly the easiest draw remaining with just one top eight opponent in Adelaide to come — although they also play both of last year’s grand finalists, which are tougher opponents than your regular bottom 10 side. The Bombers should be favoured in seven of their remaining games. If they win all of those, they should play finals, because of course one of the other teams we project to win 13 games will be upset at least once.

Fox Footy’s projection: Seven wins, finishing ninth on percentage (13-9)

THE CHASING PACK

9. Western Bulldogs (6-6, 96.5%)

Remaining games: North Melbourne at ES, West Coast Eagles at ES, Adelaide Crows at AO, Carlton at MCG, Gold Coast Suns at CS, Essendon at ES, Brisbane Lions at Gabba, GWS Giants at ES, Port Adelaide at EU, Hawthorn at ES

Remaining fixture difficulty: Seventh (five Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 100.86)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 45.6

PERHAPS we are optimistic about a team that looked poor on Sunday, has struggled to score for the past two months and has lost four of its past five matches. But we know the Western Bulldogs are good enough to play finals from here, even when they’re giving most of their rivals in the race a game’s headstart and have a bad percentage. While games against Adelaide and GWS will be tough, wins against West Coast in Melbourne, Port Adelaide in Ballarat and Essendon are all plausible. Don’t count the reigning premiers out just yet.

Fox Footy’s projection: Eight wins, finishing fifth on percentage (14-8)

10. St Kilda (6-6, 95%)

Remaining games: Gold Coast Suns at ES, Fremantle at Subiaco, Richmond at ES, Essendon at ES, Sydney Swans at SCG, Port Adelaide at AO, West Coast Eagles at ES, Melbourne at MCG, North Melbourne at ES, Richmond at MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Second (six Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 104)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 45.6

THE Saints are going to find it tough from here with the second-hardest draw in the AFL to come, including six games against top eight sides as well as an away clash with Sydney. They’re not the toughest opponents of the top eight, admittedly, and we saw how good this team can be against GWS. If they can recover that form it’s a fixture that can be overcome; but finding six, if not seven wins in it may be too much. Their percentage will also mean they need to do more than most.

Fox Footy’s projection: Four wins, finishing 12th on percentage (10-12)

11. Fremantle (6-6, 78.5%)

Remaining games: Geelong Cats at Simonds, St Kilda at Subiaco, North Melbourne at ES, West Coast Eagles at Subiaco, Hawthorn at Subiaco, GWS Giants at Spotless, Gold Coast Suns at Subiaco, Sydney Swans at SCG, Richmond at Subiaco, Essendon at ES

Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth (five Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 100.48)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 45.6

THAT last stat above — 45.6 per cent of 6-6 teams making the top eight — doesn’t take into account that the Dockers have the third-worst percentage in the AFL. They’re not your regular 6-6 team. The good thing for Fremantle is they still have that record and therefore are in the race; but it’s not an easy draw with only two games where they could likely be favoured (against Hawthorn and Gold Coast, both at home). It would be an unlikely recovery, let’s say.

Fox Footy’s projection: Two wins, finishing 13th (8-14)

12. Sydney Swans (5-7, 105.5%)

Remaining games: Essendon at SCG, Melbourne at MCG, Gold Coast Suns at SCG, GWS Giants at Spotless, St Kilda at SCG, Hawthorn at MCG, Geelong Cats at Simonds, Fremantle at SCG, Adelaide Crows at AO, Carlton at SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth (five Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 101.28)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 12.8

HERE they come. The comeback win over Richmond saw many suggest Sydney can still play finals. Can they really? It’s one of the tougher draws remaining for a contender but given that the Swans have been the form side of the competition since Round 7, it’s one that they can overcome. They should need at least seven wins, and they face the top three sides on the ladder away — but they do play well against Geelong. Their next fortnight will be big though with Essendon and Melbourne set to be the sides around them on the ladder come season’s end. Lose to one or both of them and the dream is likely over. But we’re believers.

Fox Footy’s projection: Eight wins, finishing eighth on percentage (13-9)

13. Collingwood (5-7, 101.7%)

Remaining games: Port Adelaide at MCG, Hawthorn at MCG, Essendon at MCG, Gold Coast Suns at MS, West Coast Eagles at ES, Adelaide Crows at MCG, North Melbourne at ES, Port Adelaide at AO, Geelong Cats at MCG, Melbourne at MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: First (seven Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 110.45)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 12.8

COLLINGWOOD fans weren’t happy when they didn’t get the rub of the green against Melbourne, and looking at their draw you can particularly understand why. The Magpies have the toughest run home of any side with seven games against top eight opponents to come. They’ll probably need to win at least two or three of those to have a sniff of September. It may be too much to ask, but with a good percentage and a bit of luck going their own way, it could be doable.

Fox Footy’s projection: Five wins, finishing 11th on percentage (10-12)

14. Gold Coast Suns (5-7, 88.1%)

Remaining games: St Kilda at ES, North Melbourne at MS, Sydney Swans at SCG, Collingwood at MS, Western Bulldogs at CS, Richmond at MS, Fremantle at Subiaco, Brisbane Lions at Gabba, Essendon at MS, Port Adelaide at AO

Remaining fixture difficulty: 15th (three Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 98.7)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 12.8

GOLD Coast likely blew its chance of a maiden finals appearance on Saturday night. In a winnable game at home, the Suns didn’t really look likely, and now they’re on the outside looking in. They do have a kind draw though with just three top eight opponents — and all of those games are in Queensland, with the clash with the Bulldogs in Cairns and the Tigers and Bombers coming to Metricon. But performances like Round 13’s make it tough to trust this team.

Fox Footy’s projection: Two wins, finishing 15th on percentage (7-15)

15. Carlton (5-7, 82.7%)

Remaining games: Richmond at MCG, Adelaide Crows at MCG, Melbourne at MCG, Western Bulldogs at MCG, Brisbane Lions at Gabba, Geelong Cats at ES, Essendon at MCG, West Coast Eagles at Subiaco, Hawthorn at ES, Sydney Swans at SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third (six Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 103.63)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 12.8

CARLTON will win more than one game on the run home, based on its performances in recent weeks. But then you would have thought so last year when the Blues were 6-5 and they finished on seven wins. One of the toughest remaining draws also means some miracle run at September is surely out of the question, but this season wasn’t about that anyway for the Blues, so that’s no big loss.

Fox Footy’s projection: One win, finishing 16th (6-16)

16. North Melbourne (4-8, 92.9%)

Remaining games: Western Bulldogs at ES, Gold Coast Suns at MS, Fremantle at ES, Port Adelaide at AO, Essendon at ES, Melbourne at BA, Collingwood at ES, Hawthorn at UTAS, St Kilda at ES, Brisbane Lions at Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: 16th (three Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 95.96)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 3.3

THE Kangaroos seem to have gone off track a bit after winning four games out of five heading into the bye rounds. They would appear to be the last possible contender though. Let’s map out a miracle run to September. They’d probably need to beat two of the Bulldogs, Power, Bombers and Demons — but that’s not out of the realms of possibility. Then win the rest of their games and they’re at that magic number of 12, probably with a healthy percentage too (given they’d have won eight games off a base of nearly 93). They surely won’t. But we can’t count them out for a little while yet.

Fox Footy’s projection: Three wins, finishing 14th on percentage (7-15)

17. Hawthorn (4-8, 76.9%)

Remaining games: Adelaide Crows at AO, Collingwood at MCG, GWS Giants at UTAS, Geelong Cats at MCG, Fremantle at Subiaco, Sydney Swans at MCG, Richmond at MCG, North Melbourne at UTAS, Carlton at ES, Western Bulldogs at ES

Remaining fixture difficulty: 12th (four Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 104.05)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 3.3

SINCE Round 5, the Hawks are 4-4 with a percentage just over 91. That’s not a bad team — it’s a slightly worse St Kilda, or a slightly better Gold Coast. But of course that's not quite how it works and that first month which drags down their win-loss record as well as their percentage should be enough to stop any miracle run to September. They’re good enough to win more than the one game we project them for, but again, tipping when they’ll suddenly look like the Hawks of old (as they did against Sydney and West Coast) is a nearly impossible task. In their next month, they face the top three on the ladder, so they should be out of finals calculations by the end of that.

Fox Footy’s projection: One win, finishing 17th (5-17)

18. Brisbane Lions (2-10, 69.9%)

Remaining games: GWS Giants at Gabba, Essendon at ES, Geelong Cats at Gabba, Richmond at ES, Carlton at Gabba, West Coast Eagles at Subiaco, Western Bulldogs at Gabba, Gold Coast Suns at Gabba, Melbourne at MCG, North Melbourne at Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fourth (six Top 8 teams, opponents’ average percentage of 103.63)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 0

BRISBANE is certainly the favourite to claim the No. 1 pick in the draft, having given Hawthorn and North Melbourne a two-game headstart and with an unkind draw to come. It will be more about getting experience into their young players — and maybe pinching a win or two, against Carlton or Gold Coast at home, perhaps?

Fox Footy’s projection: No wins, finishing 18th (2-20)