



Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too

different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out.

19% of people say they’ve already cast their ballots and they report having

voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who

haven’t voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of

ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

We’ve found a major improvement in Mitt Romney’s image in most of the states

that we’ve polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His

favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49

breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval

rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.

The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as

well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan

was the victor. Biden’s advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both

Democrats and Republicans say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote this fall,

reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters

expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.

In the US Senate race Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Josh Mandel

49-42, little change from a 49-41 advantage two weeks ago. Brown has narrowly

positive approval numbers on this poll with 45% of voters giving him good marks

to 43% who disapprove. Mandel meanwhile continues to be unpopular with only 37%

of voters expressing a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one.

“Barack Obama’s poll numbers have dropped a fair amount nationally over the

last week but he’s holding strong in Ohio,” said Dean Debnam, President of

Public Policy Polling. “And if he can still win there, he’ll likely win the

election.”

PPP surveyed 880 likely

Ohio voters on October 12th and 13th. The margin of error for the

survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for

or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are

conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President

Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve …………………………………………………. 50%

Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mitt Romney?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat

Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If

the election was today, who would you vote

for?

Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%

Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator

Sherrod Brown’s job performance?

Approve …………….. .45%

Disapprove…………. .43%

Not sure …………….. .13%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Josh Mandel?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q6 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat

Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel. If

the election was today, who would you vote

for?

Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 49%

Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 42%

Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 Have you already voted, either at an early

voting site or with an absentee ballot?

Yes………………………………………………………… 19%

No …………………………………………………………. 81%

Q8 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney

more on the issue of the economy?

Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q9 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney

more on the issue of Libya?

Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Joe Biden?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Paul Ryan?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q12 Who do you think won the Vice Presidential

debate: Joe Biden or Paul Ryan?

Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 46%

Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 37%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q13 Generally speaking, in 2014, do you think you

would you vote for Republican Josh Mandel or

his Democratic opponent for State Treasurer?

Josh Mandel ………. .39%

Democratic

opponent……………..40%

Not sure …………….. .20%

Q14 Do you think Josh Mandel is mature enough to

be a US Senator, or not?

He is …………………. .44%

He is not…………….. .42%

Not sure …………….. .14%

Q15 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not

at all excited about voting in the 2012

elections?

Very excited ……………………………………………. 60%

Somewhat excited …………………………………… 26%

Not at all excited ……………………………………… 15%

Q16 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor

John Kasich’s job performance?

Approve …………….. .42%

Disapprove…………. .41%

Not sure …………….. .17%

Q17 Generally speaking, if there was an election

today, would you vote for Republican John

Kasich or his Democratic opponent?

John Kasich ……….. .45%

Democratic

opponent……………..42%

Not sure …………….. .13%

Q18 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rob

Portman’s job performance?

Approve …………….. .35%

Disapprove…………. .25%

Not sure …………….. .40%

Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of House

Speaker John Boehner’s job performance?

Approve …………….. .33%

Disapprove…………. .46%

Not sure …………….. .21%

Q20 If there was an election for Congress today,

would you vote Democratic or Republican?

Democratic……………………………………………… 42%

Republican……………………………………………… 44%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q21 Issue 2 would remove the authority of elected

representatives and grant new authority to

appointed officials to establish congressional

and state legislative district lines. It would

create a state-funded commission of appointed

individuals from a limited pool of applicants to

replace the aforementioned. The commission

would consist of 12 members as follows: four

affiliated with the largest political party, four

affiliated with the second largest political party,

and four not affiliated with either of the two

largest political parties. Affirmative votes of

seven of 12 members are needed to select a

plan. If the election was today, would you vote

for or against Issue 2?

For ………………………………………………………… 37%

Against…………………………………………………… 44%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q22 Looking back, do you support or oppose the

bailout of the auto industry?

Support ………………………………………………….. 54%

Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q23 Who do you think would be better for the

automotive industry in Ohio: Barack Obama or

Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q24 Is the candidates’ for President records on the

automotive industry very important, somewhat

important, or not that important to you?

Very important…………………………………………. 42%

Somewhat important ………………………………… 37%

Not that important ……………………………………. 19%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%

Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%

Moderate………………………………………………… 29%

Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%

Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%

Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify

with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%

Republican……………………………………………… 36%

Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%

Q28 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,

press 2. If other, press 3.

White …………………………………………………….. 84%

African-American …………………………………….. 11%

Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q29 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are

older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%

30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%

46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%

Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%