ES News email The latest headlines in your inbox twice a day Monday - Friday plus breaking news updates Enter your email address Continue Please enter an email address Email address is invalid Fill out this field Email address is invalid You already have an account. Please log in Register with your social account or click here to log in I would like to receive lunchtime headlines Monday - Friday plus breaking news alerts, by email Update newsletter preferences

The likelihood of a second Brexit referendum being held to break the political deadlock over the issue has “risen sharply”, data has suggested.

Forecasting group the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) put the probability of another poll at 50 per cent, up from 30 per cent following similar analysis two weeks ago.

It predicted that Prime Minister Theresa May’s “plan B” for Britain’s departure from the EU will not be sufficient to secure parliamentary approval.

The chances of it succeeding was placed at 20 per cent by EIU, a London-based data firm which provides economic forecasts, research and analysis.

The EIU had previously said there was a 40 per cent chance of Mrs May getting a version of her deal approved by Parliament eventually.

It said a second poll would give popular legitimacy to the next course of action, be it adopting a version of Mrs May's deal, leaving with no deal or stopping Brexit.

The analysis also predicted a 15 per cent probability for a soft Brexit option, a 10 per cent chance of a general election and a 5 per cent likelihood of a no deal outcome.

Danielle Haralambous, UK analyst at the EIU, said Theresa May's "plan B" for her Brexit deal is "unlikely to do much to revive it".

"As before, a lot depends on how much the EU is willing to bend on the Irish backstop arrangement, and as before, the EU has made clear that it will not.

"With the deal unlikely to be revived, the Brexit options have narrowed, and in our view the probability of a second referendum being held to break the political deadlock has risen sharply.

"We still think that when it comes down it, Mrs May and her government are not prepared to run down the Article 50 clock and leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement and transition arrangements in place."

She added: "We therefore expect the Government to request an extension that avoids a cliff-edge situation, and in our view a second referendum is the most likely next step.

"The outcome of such a referendum will depend on how the options are phrased and how the vote is structured, and this will be the subject of a lengthy parliamentary debate.

"One downside from this outcome is that delaying Brexit to hold a referendum that includes the possibility of a vote for 'no deal' extends the period of economic uncertainty faced by businesses, weighing on activity in the near term.

"We are revising down our forecast for economic growth in the UK in 2019, to 1.1 per cent from 1.4 per cent previously."