MADRID — Politicians, pollsters and the media are gearing up for Spain's fourth general election in as many years after the breakdown of coalition talks between acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialists and the far-left Podemos.

Sánchez, who has been caretaker prime minister since he fell short of a majority in April's election, is unlikely to meet a September 23 deadline to form a new government. Barring a last-minute breakthrough, Spanish voters will trudge the familiar path back to the ballot box on November 10.

Naturally, Sánchez and Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias blame each other for the failed negotiations. Their acrimonious parliamentary exchanges on Wednesday underlined the mutual mistrust, and may set the tone for the election campaign.

“Don’t push the country again to an election,” Sánchez told Iglesias. “Don’t give a second opportunity to the right.”

“A coalition government is always preferable to repeating elections,” Iglesias told Sánchez, warning the Socialist leader that he would have to shoulder the blame if he triggered a new vote for the sake of a few more seats in Congress.

A new election would be a big gamble for Sánchez.

The crux of their disagreement is whether Podemos should get Cabinet seats: In July, the Socialists offered Iglesias three ministries and a vice premiership, but the offer was rejected as insufficient. Now Sánchez has taken that offer off the table while Iglesias insists that Cabinet positions are a prerequisite for a deal. He even offered the possibility of a probationary coalition of one year on Thursday, which Sánchez also refused.

Next Monday and Tuesday, King Felipe VI is scheduled to meet party leaders to discuss the stalemate. If, as expected, he doesn’t invite Sánchez to make another attempt to try and get a governing majority, it would mean the die is cast.

“There’s always the possibility of a last-minute breakthrough,” one government minister said — adding, however, that the now "bitter" personal relationship between Sánchez and Iglesias gives little cause for optimism.

Renzi, May ... Sánchez?

A new ballot would extend the political instability that began in 2015, when two upstart parties — Podemos and the liberal Ciudadanos — rode a wave of popular discontent following the financial crisis and economic depression. The resulting fragmentation of Spanish politics, which had been dominated by two parties since the restoration of democracy, has since been further complicated by the rise of the far-right party Vox.

A new election would be a big gamble for Sánchez, and a major distraction just when he is managing to restore Spain's influence in the European Union.

The European landscape offers abundant examples of politicians who bit off more than they could chew by risking arguably unnecessary votes — from Italy's Matteo Renzi losing his prime ministership on a constitutional referendum in 2016 to Theresa May squandering her majority in a snap U.K. election in 2017.

Opinion polls predict the Socialists will grow from April’s 29 percent of the vote, while Podemos, Ciudadanos and Vox will lose ground. The Socialists' historic foes, the conservative Popular Party, might manage to make gains at the expense of Vox and Ciudadanos, but they are unlikely to have a chance of toppling the Socialists.

Sánchez’s calculation appears to be that a new election will not only extend his lead in Congress, but also teach a lesson to those he blames for blocking his mandate: namely Iglesias, who the Socialists believe has been too demanding, and Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera, who has downright refused to cooperate.

Defeating them could encourage Spanish lawmakers to behave more cooperatively, even if the coalition math is unlikely to change drastically.

“People will bet on stability and governability,” said a member of the Socialist leadership, pointing out that the electoral trends are disastrous for Podemos and Ciudadanos. The party official added that sooner or later Iglesias and Rivera will have to assume a secondary, more accommodating role in national politics.

Potential upsets

“An election might not spectacularly upset [the distribution of seats] … yet it could well change the situation of the political players, not just of the Socialists and Podemos, but also of the conservative Popular Party and Ciudadanos,” said Lucía Méndez, chief political reporter for the newspaper El Mundo.

SPAIN NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

Méndez believes Sánchez's Socialists will attempt to drum into Spanish voters' heads the message that Spain is "living in a disorder, that disorder has been provoked by the new parties … which haven’t proved to be useful to society, and these are Ciudadanos and Podemos.”

“This is about who has most to win and lose,” said Antonio Maestre, a prominent left-wing journalist. He argued that while Podemos is going through a rough patch with internal disputes and departures of some top figures, and may shed a few seats in Congress, its leaders think the Socialists will still need their support.

Other unpredictable factors to throw into the equation include the disruption of a no-deal Brexit, a further slowdown of the economy — Spanish employment figures in August were the worst in a decade — or a sentence against Catalan pro-independence leaders expected in October that could galvanize their supporters.

On top of that, many commentators and analysts are warning that the leftist electorate might feel so frustrated and disappointed at their leaders’ inability to reach a compromise that they don't turn out to vote at all. In opinion polls, the population at large already perceives politicians as the second biggest problem that their country faces, behind unemployment.

As one adviser to Rivera of Ciudadanos said of the looming election: "It’s a coin toss."