Japan haven’t always been a heavyweight in International women’s football (or men’s for that matter). In fact for a number of years they were not even considered the best team on their continent, one which is not particularly deep or talented when it come to the women’s game. Up until recently it was North Korea, or Korea DPR, who were the best women’s football team in Asia. That of course all changed at the 2011 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Germany and Japan, ranked number-4 in the World, marginally ahead of Sweden and behind Brazil, are now favourites to medal at the 2012 Olympic Games in London.

Going into the 2011 World Cup, the biggest success in Japanese football history, there were plenty of teams ranked ahead of Japan, who weren’t even considered a dark horse to win the tournament by most. The consensus dark horse was Canada, a team with plenty of promise going into Germany led by new coach Carolina Morace. However, the fact that Canada only scored one goal and finished dead last in the tournament quickly eliminated them from the list of dark horse candidates. Then there was Germany, the host team and a squad that many considered the 1980 Brazil of Women’s football (i.e the best team ever). Japan apparently didn’t get the memo, defeating the Germans with a 1-0 in extra time insured by a surprising goal from Karina Maruyama. Not only did this eliminate Germany from the World Cup, but also denied them a spot at the 2012 Olympic Games in London. Japan followed their quarter-final upset by shocking both Sweden and the United States in the final (in penalties no less) en route to something ever more unbelievable: the 2011 Women’s World Cup title.

At the 2012 Olympic games in London the Japanese are undoubtedly considered among the favourites to win a medal. Their winning ways of late have teams all kinds of worried about what they can produce at these games. But what are the chances that two years later this Japanese side can repeat one of the biggest string of upsets in Women’s football history? Homare Sawa, Japan’s hero at the 2011 World Cup, is two years older. While this may not seem like a lot, considering she is still only 33, it was Sawa who scored 5 goals to win both MVP of the tournament and FIFA Women’s player of the year. Her headed goal from a corner kick sent the World Cup final to penalty kicks after Abby Wambach had given the United States a brief lead. If Sawa cannot contribute in the same way can Japan find the goals that they need to secure a medal, preferably Gold at the London Olympics?

There is also the fact that Japan have found themselves in a pretty tough group to start this Olympic tournament, wheras they had by far the easiest group at the 2011 World Cup. In addition, despite the easy grouping they finished behind the English squad, who defeated them 2-0 in Japan’s second game of the tournament. This year they will have to be ready from the start. Japan will kick off their tournament against Canada, who are ranked 9th in the World and have recently defeated some fairly heavyweight opposition, including Brazil, en route to a Pan American Gold Medal. The Japanese backline will be tested very quickly in this tournament as Canada have several attacking threats including one of the best players in the history of women’s football: Christine Sinclair. They are then greeted by the team who finished 3rd at the Women’s World Cup, and a team who will be looking for revenge not to mention pass Japan in the international ranking; Sweden. The Swedes are considered the favourites by many to win the group and will certainly not allow the Japanese any rest after their opener. The group is rounded out by South Africa, a team who will probably not cause Japan too much distress.

One thing that has to be mentioned is the fact that it is quite a bit easier to advance past the group stage at these 2012 Olympics then last year at the World Cup. Japan is in Group F of a tournament which consists of three groups, E,F and G. As per usual the top two teams in each group will advance to the quarter-finals, but with only three groups that is only six teams out of the required eight. This means that two of the three 3rd place teams will advance to the next round and play the winner of Group E or Group G. For Japan it may not actually be all that advantageous to finish top of their group. Should they finish first they will most likely have to face France in the Quarter-Finals, a match that will certainly not be easy. Finishing second most likely pairs them off with Great Britain, who while they are the hosts are not considered a huge threat to medal in their own backyard.

So what will the Japanese produce under a greater spotlight then they had at the 2011 World Cup? It is hard to say, as is usually the case in short tournaments with plenty of unforeseen factors. This time around they are expected to medal and teams will not underestimate their talent as they may have done last year. Without Germany the number of high-end teams in the tournament are fewer, which allows the Japanese a better shot at accomplishing their goals. If Japan can finish second in their group the path to the Final becomes a lot easier. A quarter-final win against most likely Team GB sets up a decent Semi-Final against Sweden or France, rather than the other way around if they finish first which gives them a difficult start to the knockout stages. It is probable that Japan finish second in the Group, losing or drawing their second match against Sweden after a hard-fought opening win against Canada. They will certainly advance past the Semi-Finals but after that fate takes over. The Japanese Women’s soccer team will medal at the 2012 Olympics in London but what colour that medal ends up being will become apparent closer to the time those very medals are handed out.

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