2. Comparisons of COVID-19 death counts

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) release daily updates on the GOV.UK website counting the total number of deaths reported to them that have occurred in hospitals among patients who have tested positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) up until 5pm the day before.

Since 2 April, NHS England have been releasing daily updates of deaths in hospitals among patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 in England, which includes updates on previous days numbers.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) provides figures based on all deaths registered involving COVID-19 according to death certification, whether in or out of hospital settings. More information can be found in the Measuring the Data section.

Using these three sources for England only, Figure 1 shows for each day:

the numbers of deaths involving COVID-19 that were announced each day by DHSC

the numbers of deaths that occurred each day, as released by NHS England (the same data as DHSC announce, but counted by date of death)

the numbers of deaths that occurred each day for those that were registered by and informed to the ONS by 1 April

At the time of publication, further work is in progress across government to reconcile all sources of COVID-19 deaths data. We will be reviewing the comparisons section in light of these developments in the coming weeks.

Figure 1: The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England using different data sources, up to 27 March 2020 Cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England Source: Department of Health and Social Care, NHS England, Office for National Statistics Notes: DHSC figures. NHS England figures. Figures include deaths of non-residents. Estimates are provisional. The ICD-10 definitions for COVID-19 are U07.1 and U07.2. Download this chart Figure 1: The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England using different data sources, up to 27 March 2020 Image .csv .xls

Figure 1 shows that on 27 March, the DHSC reported 926 total deaths had taken place in hospitals in England (deaths by 5pm on the 27 March as announced on the 28 March). NHS England’s reconciled figures now report 1,649 deaths in hospitals by the same date (published on 5 April). The number of deaths registered by 1 April involving COVID-19, by the same date of death, was 1,568 occurring both within and outside of hospitals. This is more than double that published by the DHSC but slightly lower than NHS England’s latest reconciled figures. This is because of the time taken for deaths to be registered.

We have undertaken some preliminary analysis to understand how many deaths registered in England and Wales so far have taken place outside of hospital settings. The analysis shows that of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 13, 92.9% (501 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.

Table 1: The majority of COVID-19 deaths occurred within hospitals

England and Wales Number of deaths Number of COVID-19 deaths Home 2,785 15 Hospitals (acute or community not psychiatric) 5,105 501 Hospice 504 2 Care Home 2,489 20 Other communal establishments 33 0 Elsewhere 225 1 Total 11,141 539 Download this table Table 1: The majority of COVID-19 deaths occurred within hospitals .xls .csv

The figures published on GOV.UK are valuable because they are available very quickly and give an indication of what is happening day by day. Their definition is also clear, so the limitations of the data can be understood. But they will not necessarily include all deaths involving COVID-19, such as those in England that are not in a hospital or where no test result was available. Although the main GOV.UK figure reported is for the whole UK, breakdowns by area are available.

NHS England’s reconciled numbers are valuable as they give a good indication of the lags in the daily deaths in hospital reporting process. They allow analysis by date of death to be carried out, which is a better indicator of the growth in the number of deaths.

Numbers produced by the ONS take longer to prepare because they have to be certified by a doctor, registered and processed. But once ready, they are the most accurate and complete information. The ONS provides figures based on deaths registered in England and Wales with COVID-19 (more information can be found in the Measuring the data section).

Comparisons of data sources at the England and Wales level are available in the accompanying datasets.