Republicans hope they can secure at least one concession from the president. GOP braces for shutdown fallout

House and Senate Republicans are still spooked by the ghosts of shutdown past, with many fearing a brutal political fallout that could threaten their party in the run-up to the 2014 midterms.

Despite a firm belief that the public is on their side in opposition to Obamacare, there is palpable fear among Republicans on Capitol Hill that they will not be rewarded for taking such a tough stand against the law, which helped lead to the first government shutdown in 17 years early Tuesday. And there is even deeper concern that President Barack Obama won’t give any ground in the battle over his signature legislative achievement and House Speaker John Boehner will eventually capitulate, leaving Republicans with little to show for after a raging political fight.


In interviews on Monday, many congressional Republicans argued that their best hope is that the shutdown will be short, the GOP can secure at least one concession from Obama and that voters will forget about the budget debacle by next November, instead applauding them for fighting a health care law they see as completely unworkable.

But even that may be a stretch, a number of Republicans concede.

( POLITICO's full government shutdown coverage)

“I don’t think it ends well for Republicans,” said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), the conservative freshman and former House member. “I just think that we get the blame on things like this. I don’t think it will be any different this time.”

“I just don’t think it’s smart,” said Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.). “People don’t get elected to shut the government down, especially over something you clearly don’t have the votes for.”

Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt, a member of Senate GOP leadership and a former House Republican leader, said: “If Republicans don’t get most of the blame for a shutdown, it will be the only time that the opposition party to the president didn’t get the blame for a shutdown.”

( WATCH: Shutdown: Democrats vs. Republicans)

“It’s funny: People want to repeal Obamacare, but they don’t see the connection about what we’re doing here and the fact they don’t like Obamacare,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who served through the last shutdown and was a supporter of using the spending bill to defund Obamacare in this fight. “It’s an anomaly.”

And while some House and Senate Republicans believe they won’t suffer the same political backlash that Speaker Newt Gingrich did in 1996 that helped bolster Bill Clinton’s reelection, virtually everyone believes the public — and the media — will place a much bigger blame on their party than the Democrats, fairly or not.

“I think for either party, it depends on the duration of it, and the impact of it on people’s lives,” said Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas). “If people feel that this is worthwhile, I think it will accrue to the Republicans. If at the end of the day they don’t, I think it will be damaging.”

( WATCH: Boehner 'confident' House will pass CR)

“Oh yeah,” Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.) said when asked if he thought Republicans would suffer more of the blame for the shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid “could do nothing and he still won’t get blamed for shutting down the government.”

Still, while Rooney wants to dismantle Obama’s health care law, he’s skeptical Republicans can do it now.

“I find that hard to believe that Barack Obama would do any damage to Obamacare, as much as I would like it.”

( PHOTOS: 18 times the government has shut down)

Therein lies the problem in the eyes of many congressional Republicans: They set a very high bar demanding changes to Obamacare, but that could ultimately turn out to be a lost cause, given the Democrats’ no-compromise stance on the issue. After a drama-filled Monday in which House Republicans passed bill after bill gutting Obamacare only to see Senate Democrats reject the moves, the chambers return Tuesday back at square one — but this time, with government services cut off and hundreds of thousands of federal employees experiencing furloughs.

Democrats are renewing their demands, calling for a six-week stop-gap spending bill funded at the $986 billion annual level, with no restrictions on Obamacare, a major portion of which will begin to be implemented on Tuesday. But Republicans have been pushing a wide-array of anti-Obamacare demands that they are seeking to tie to the spending bill, ranging from delaying the mandate that individuals buy health insurance to repealing a 2.3 percent tax on medical device makers and scrapping federal contributions to insurance coverage for lawmakers and their aides.

But Reid and Obama refuse to budge at all, with the Nevada Democrat saying repeatedly he won’t negotiate over Obamacare “with a gun to my head.”

Some Republicans believe the no-compromise stance will help them win the public relations war.

“We lived through the ‘95-‘96 time, so naturally I’m very concerned,” said veteran Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah. “On the other hand, if people won’t negotiate with you, I don’t know how you blame Republicans.”

“Let’s say for example the next thing that comes back is that the Republicans say, ‘Let’s just do a clean [continuing resolution] and negotiate,’” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), referring to his suggestion to pass a 1-2 week extension to allow for talks over Obamamcare. “The Democrats are unwilling to take a clean CR and negotiate? And I think they’re showing they’re unreasonable.”

Still, the problem for Republicans is that there are many conservatives who refuse to accept a short-term deal — and they won’t back any “clean” measure that does not immediately limit, restrict or defund Obamacare.

Indeed, there are a number of conservatives who flatly believe the public hates Obamacare more than a shutdown, so they’re willing to take a political hit in the short-term.

“I sincerely believe that the people of Georgia would rather take their chances on a shutdown than take Obamacare being the law of the land for now til infinity,” said GOP Rep. Phil Gingrey, who is running for the Senate in Georgia. “And it will be more damaging to the country than a shutdown.”

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), a member of GOP leadership, said his party will be better off by the time of the midterm elections when the focus centers on Obamacare.

“You know people around here,” he said. “It’s the law of fast-forgetting.”

Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kansas) said more than a few people in his district would be happy to see the Environmental Protection Agency take a few days off rather than have Obamacare implemented. And he downplayed the impact to the economy with federal workers furloughed.

“If there is a shutdown, there will be probably be more people working tomorrow than will be working on Saturday and Sunday because they all didn’t work over the weekend,” Huelskamp said.

Still, the pressure is bound to build on Obama and Boehner to cut a deal. And Boehner will have to compromise further than many on the right would like or he could get nothing in the end.

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said Republicans “have to come out of this process with an accomplishment,” but he acknowledged the challenges of going up against the president in a public relations war.

“I think the people are confused, I think my family is confused, my staff is confused, probably some of my colleagues don’t understand exactly what we’re doing,” Wicker said. “I’m just not sure what the message will be.”

While Wicker believes Republicans can score a win on Obamacare in this battle, others are far more skeptical.

“Congress always gets blamed,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). “Because the Republicans will be perceived as shutting down the government.”

McCain added that he’d vote for a stop-gap measure with no strings attached if given the chance “because we can’t win,” adding: “That’s going to happen sooner or later.”

Burgess Everett contributed to this story.