Though a part of the anticipated South Korean exports weakness can be ascribed to seasonal factors, July trade data would be negative for the Q3 GDP growth outlook if materialized.



"South Korean exports are likely to have weakened again in July after a rebound in June. Based on interim trade data until 20 July, exports are estimated to decline from $46.7bn in June to $44.1bn in July. Year-on-year exports growth should also fall from -2.4% to -8.5%", says Societe Generale.



Meanwhile, imports are likely to rise from $36.7bn to $39.0bn, though year-on-year growth may decline from - 13.6% to -15.0% due to base effects.



"The trade surplus is expected to decline from $10.0bn to $5.1bn, a natural outcome from weak exports and strong imports", added Societe Generale.