How Ford-friendly will the new council be? A councillor-by-councillor analysis

How Ford-friendly will the new council be? A councillor-by-councillor analysis

“[Rob Ford] won’t be able to pass gas without the permission of council.” That was city council bomb-thrower Howard Moscoe back in August, saying that even if Ford was elected, the council’s lefties would block his proposals. Ford had made many enemies on council, and was seen as basically irrelevant to the rest, that he’d never get a working majority together, right?

Well, a couple of days after election day and the situation looks mighty different. The question everyone seems to be asking is, How many councillors will end up on Team Ford? Aside from the many new faces on council, the mayor-elect can probably count on the support of city hall’s long-ignored conservative caucus and, from time to time, a few councillors from the political centre. With the caveat that it’s early days yet, we offer our best guess for how Toronto’s new city council will break down by affiliation, with the major players ranked by FFF—Ford Friendliness Factor.

The battle on council will likely be over who can woo the middle to their cause, and it will probably be fought on an issue-by-issue basis. But looking at the score below—18 Fordites, 18 anti-Fordites, eight neutrals—we’d guess that Ford will be able to get what he wants out of council way more often than Moscoe guessed back in August.

THE ANTI-FORD FORCES

The UnFordified Caucus

Council’s more left-leaning members, based on their history in office or on their recent election platforms.

Anthony Peruzza (Ward 8)

Maria Augimieri (Ward 9)

James Pasternak (Ward 10)

Sarah Doucette (Ward 13)

Gord Perks (Ward 14)

Ana Bailao (Ward 18)

Mike Layton (Ward 19)

Adam Vaughan (Ward 20)

Joe Mihevc (Ward 21)

Josh Matlow (Ward 22)

John Filion (Ward 23)

Kristin Wong-Tam (Ward 27)

Pam McConell (Ward 28)

Mary Fragedakis (Ward 29)

Paula Fletcher (Ward 30)

Janet Davis (Ward 31)

Shelley Caroll (Ward 33)

Glenn De Baeremaker (Ward 38)

Likely Leaders

Adam Vaughan (FFF: -∞)

One of the leaders of the opposition in the Ford era. The Vaughan-Ford feud has been going on for a while now, and Vaughan’s larger public persona from his days in TV might give him an edge.

Shelley Carroll (FFF: 0)

Has the undeniable respect of the anti-Ford forces for her competence as the city’s budget chief. Both she and Vaughan are already being talked about as the left’s greatest hope in the 2014 election.

THE PRO-FORD FORCES



The “May the Ford Be With You” Caucus

Council’s more right-leaning members, based on their history in office or on their recent election platforms.

Vincent Crisanti (Ward 1)

Doug Ford (Ward 2)

Doug Holyday (Ward 3)

Gloria Lindsay Luby (Ward 4)

Peter Milczyn (Ward 5)

Giorgio Mammoliti (Ward 7)

James Pasternak (Ward 10)

Frances Nunziata (Ward 11)

Karen Stintz (Ward 16)

Cesar Palacio (Ward 17)

David Shiner (Ward 24)

John Parker (Ward 26)

Mary Margaret McMahon (Ward 32)

Denzil Minnan-Wong (Ward 34)

Michelle Berardinetti (Ward 35)

Gary Crawford (Ward 36)

Michael Thompson (Ward 37)

Mike Del Grande (Ward 39)

Norm Kelly (Ward 40)

Likely Leaders

The mayor himself, of course. But Ford is also going to be able to rely on a slate of lieutenants, like David Miller did. Those who may fill the roles include:

Frances Nunziata (FFF: 9)

Will Ford favour people who got on the bandwagon early? If so, Nunziata could see her star rising, as she endorsed the mayor-elect back in September.

Giorgio Mammoliti (FFF: 7)

Mammo endorsed Ford in the most high-profile way possible, so that may put him in the good books (although Ford insists that there was no deal at play). Of course, that all depends on how the mayor-elect feels about perceived “gino boys.”

Karen Stintz (FFF: 6)

Perhaps the new top dog wants to get away from the feeling of the campaign and get close with other right-wingers already on council, even if they sat out the race. Stintz is slightly closer to the centre than Ford himself, which may be useful when winning over other councillors.

Denzil Minnan-Wong (FFF: 7)

A high-profile name, to be sure. Perhaps Ford will opt for the long-time go-to man on the council’s right wing.

THE MIDDLE DWELLERS

The Maybe Caucus

Mark Grimes (Ward 6)

Jaye Robinson (Ward 25)

Chin Lee (Ward 41)

Raymond Cho (Ward 42)

Ron Moeser (Ward 44)

Paul Ainslie (Ward 43)

Josh Colle (Ward 15)

Frank Di Giorgio (Ward 12)

Who to watch

Josh Colle (FFF: ?!?)

It will be interesting to see where Colle goes. Endorsed by everyone from Mel Lastman to NOW Magazine, Colle is thus far something of a cypher.

UPDATE: At his request, councillor-elect James Pasternak has been moved from our anti-Ford list to our pro-Ford list.

(Images: all from Toronto Bike Month, except Josh Colle, from Facebook)