PRINCETON, NJ -- The first official vote in the 2008 presidential primaries will be cast in early January, just a little more than three months away. This presidential campaign has been one of the longest in recent history. At this point in the race, candidates have been actively campaigning for almost a year; a long series of debates has already been held; and voters, particularly in key early primary states, have become used to the type of intense campaign rhetoric usually heard only much later in the campaign process. The process began so early this year that some candidates officially announced they were running, campaigned furiously, and then withdrew -- all before the first caucus or primary has been held. Gallup has conducted more than 24,000 interviews since January 2007 relating to the election, and an analysis of the trends evident in the data suggest certain patterns that in some instances give us an excellent indication of how the race is likely to shape up. Political Landscape Favorable for the Democrats The political environment in which the 2008 presidential election will take place has been and continues to be favorable for the Democratic ticket, whomever it will finally include. In a broad sense, the American public’s assessment of the state of the nation continues to be negative. Such a negative evaluation usually results in Americans wanting to hold the party in the White House accountable, suggesting the possibility that the Republican presidential candidate -- although not an incumbent himself -- will face an uphill battle in getting elected unless conditions change between now and next fall. These mood and state of the nation indicators include the following: o President George W. Bush's job approval rating is currently at 32% (according to the Oct. 12-14 USAToday/Gallup poll), and has been below 40% since September 2006. The last two quarterly averages for Bush job approval have been among the lowest in Gallup Poll history. o It is possible that Bush’s approval ratings may recover between now and November 2008, but at the moment, the significant potential exists for the president’s problems to negatively affect the GOP presidential ticket. o Only 26% of Americans say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country at this time, while 72% are dissatisfied. Although higher than the record low of 12% on this measure, this low satisfaction level again suggests potential trouble for the GOP. o Just 33% of Americans describe economic conditions in the country today as "excellent" or "good," while 23% say they are poor. Also, the majority (66%) say the economy is getting worse rather than better (23%). o Historically, a perceived negative economic environment has been a key indicator of trouble for an incumbent president seeking re-election, including Ford in 1976, Carter in 1980, and Bush in 1992. The current president Bush is not seeking re-election, but the economic situation -- if it continues to be perceived as negatively next year -- will certainly present challenges to Republican candidates attempting to hold the White House. o The No. 1 problem facing the nation today, according to Gallup Polls, is the war in Iraq. By all measures, the American public perceives that the war in Iraq is going badly, and was ill-conceived initially. The public is also more likely to perceive that the Democrats would do a better job on Iraq than the Republicans. Hence it would appear that the Iraq situation could be used to the Democratic candidate’s advantage next year, although ambivalence on the part of the public about what to do now in Iraq may make it difficult for the Democratic nominee to stake out a clear position on this issue. o A number of indicators suggest that the image of Republicans -- taken as a whole -- is in poor shape at this time. Fifty-nine percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party and just 38% have a favorable one. At the same time, 53% of Americans rate the Democratic Party favorably and 43% unfavorably. Americans have rated the Democrats more positively than the Republicans since April 2005 (by at least one point in each poll over the past two and a half years). Thus, it is not surprising to find Democrats faring well in “generic ballot” matchups against Republicans for the 2008 presidential election. For instance, in an Oct. 12-16 CBS News Poll, 48% of voters said they would “probably” vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, and only 33% for the Republican candidate. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted Oct. 12-14 finds the “generic” Democrat ahead of the “generic” Republican by 13 points. However, the election is much closer when specific candidates are matched in hypothetical trial-heat ballots. In fact, Democratic candidates hold statistically significant leads at this point over only the lesser-known Republican candidates (Thompson and Romney). The trial heats are essentially tied in matchups of Clinton or Obama versus Giuliani or McCain. The Oct. 12-14 CNN/Opinion Research poll finds 49% of voters supporting New York Sen. Hillary Clinton to win next year's election, and 47% supporting Rudy Giuliani. A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll from Oct. 9-10 shows a close race between Clinton and Giuliani (47% to 43%), and Clinton and John McCain (47% to 44%). Clinton performs much better against Mitt Romney (50% to 38%) and Fred Thompson (50% to 38%). An early October National Public Radio poll has Giuliani in an essential dead heat with both Clinton (47% to 44%) and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (44% to 44%). Both Democratic candidates do better against Thompson.

The Democratic Race: Conditions Auspicious for Sen. Clinton to Win Gallup’s 2007 national presidential polling strongly points to Clinton winning the 2008 Democratic nomination. Barring something unusual or otherwise unexpected, she is well positioned for the 2008 Democratic primaries. Obama has not been an insignificant rival: he came within single digits of tying Clinton for the lead at two points this spring. But he has recently lost ground and is now in the weakest position relative to Clinton that he has been in all year. No other announced or potential Democratic candidate has come close to threatening Clinton’s front-runner status since the campaign began, including former Vice President Al Gore and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. When 2008 is history and one looks retrospectively at where the race stands today, the key factors forecasting Clinton’s success will likely be the following: Clinton Has Had a Consistent Run at the Top Clinton has led the Democratic pack in every Gallup Poll conducted between November 2006 and October 2007. For most of this time, Clinton has led Obama by a double-digit margin. Clinton’s lead over Obama has expanded to nearly 30 points in Gallup’s latest poll, conducted Oct. 12-14: 50% vs. 21%. Gallup polling on Democratic nominations going back to the 1972 election shows that, by historical standards, a lead of even 20 points is large for Democratic candidates. The two candidates who held this distinction in the fall months before the election year (Gore in 1999 and Walter Mondale in 1983) eventually won the Democratic nomination. Importantly, two-thirds of Democrats who prefer Clinton for their party’s nomination say they are certain to vote for her in the primaries, a higher percentage than is found for supporters of the other Democratic candidates. Clinton ’s Support Runs Deep Clinton holds a commanding lead among nearly every major subgroup of potential Democratic primary voters. Some of her strongest showings are among women, nonwhites, those in lower-income households, those with less formal education, and Southerners. Clinton Is Broadly Popular Among Democrats Clinton enjoys high favorable ratings in the Democratic Party that extend well beyond the 40% to 50% of Democrats typically naming her as their top choice for the nomination. Eighty-two percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners have a favorable view of the former first lady, while only 16% have an unfavorable view of her. Obama (70% favorable among Democrats) and Edwards (63% favorable) lag behind Clinton on this measure, in part because fewer Democrats are familiar with them. Democrats also rate Clinton as the candidate most likely to defeat the Republican in the general election -- a key perceptual advantage given that primary voters are trying to distinguish among candidates with largely similar issue positions. Additionally, 64% of Democrats say they would vote for Clinton enthusiastically in November 2008 should she be the party’s nominee. Forty-nine percent say this about Obama and 41% about Edwards. Clinton’s Image Strong on Top Policy Issues According to the Sept. 24-27, 2007, Gallup Panel survey, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents choose Clinton as the candidate best able to handle a wide variety of national issues. In fact, even when given the choice of the top three Democratic candidates -- Clinton, Obama, and Edwards -- an outright majority of Democrats say Clinton would do the best job on 6 out of 17 issues measured in the poll. This includes some of the major nuts-and-bolts policy issues Americans generally rate as most important to their vote for federal offices: healthcare, the economy, and education. It also includes two of the leading values issues in today’s culture: abortion and gay marriage. Clinton is preferred by a solid plurality of Democrats on an additional seven issues. Among these are terrorism and the situation in Iraq -- two of the most hotly debated issues of the election, as well as potentially crucial to voters. She also holds sizable leads on taxes and energy, and somewhat smaller leads on crime, immigration, and being commander in chief of the military. Obama is preferred by a majority of Democrats on only one issue: race relations. He also leads Clinton and Edwards with a sizable plurality as the candidate best able to inspire Americans. Clinton’s nomination seems almost inevitable, but Ted Kennedy (1980) and Gary Hart (1988) provide some caution that under extreme circumstances, a strong Democratic candidate can blow a big lead. Kennedy’s and Hart’s big leads came much earlier in the campaign, however. Of note as well: Mondale saw his large lead from the fall of 1983 disappear after Hart’s win in the 1984 New Hampshire primary, before Mondale recovered and went on to secure the nomination. Some have speculated that Americans might be uncomfortable with Bill Clinton returning to the White House after scandal marred his presidency, but polling data suggests that is not the case -- at least not now.