History, it is said, does not repeat itself, but some people in France are trying hard to make it happen. They remember the strikes of November and December 1995, starting with the railway workers’ stoppage, which forced the then prime minister, Alain Juppé, to back down on his pensions and social security reforms. And then there’s the glorious month of May 1968, with the 50th anniversary commemorations of the Paris spring already in full swing.

A bit of both events is at play in the current wave of strikes and student protests taking place in France, presenting President Emmanuel Macron with the first major test – political but also of character – for a young and still untried leader of this old nation.

The 160,000 workers of the state-owned SNCF railway company are the vanguard of this still fragmented challenge. On Tuesday they began a three-month offensive with a highly disruptive programme: two days of stoppages, followed by three days of work, until the end of June. They want the government to give up its reform plans, which include the end of lifelong employment for new recruits.

Elsewhere, employees at Carrefour hypermarkets, medical staff at emergency wards in public hospitals, rubbish collectors in Paris and Air France pilots have also engaged in action.

At the same time, several universities in the country are paralysed as a result of strikes and occupations by students opposed to a new selection process. Amid a very 1968 atmosphere, they have demanded the resignation of Macron, and for all students to be automatically marked 10 out of 20 – in order to pass their exams – while they’re out on strike.

The key word is convergence: should all these separate movements merge, the government would be faced with a 1968 or, more likely, a 1995 situation (the strikes without the revolution), with the risk of contagion to other sectors. We’re not there yet, though.

Everyone expected Macron’s first major challenge to take place last autumn, when he pushed for extensive reforms to the labour laws. Attempts by his predecessors to do the same had brought millions of demonstrators on to the streets, and Macron was expected to face similar opposition. But the president managed to get the reformist unions on his side, thereby depriving his opponents of a unified front.

Many resent what they see as social arrogance from the president and the young technocrats surrounding him

Macron could therefore feel that he had the green light to push for more reforms, as announced during his election campaign last year. He promised then to break the paralysis of the French social system – which in his view is responsible for high unemployment, the constant budget deficit and the country’s diminished industrial base.

After the failures in office of the rightwing Nicolas Sarkozy and the socialist François Hollande, French voters seemed ready to embrace this newcomer who claimed he was “neither right, nor left”, and who offered a smiling alternative to the demagogy of the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen.

Almost one year after the presidential election, the honeymoon is obviously over, but it would be premature to claim that Macron has lost his gamble to shake up France. The ultimate outcome will depend on the way he handles the current social conflicts.

Opinion polls show a divided country. Almost half of the population sympathises with the striking railway workers, even though they have to put up with the disruption to transport. The other half supports the president’s reforms. What will be the state of public opinion after two weeks of conflict and hardship? After one month? After three months? The answer is crucial to Macron’s capacity to push for more reforms during the rest of his five-year mandate.

How the president is viewed has clearly been affected by some of the choices he has made. After one year in office, “neither right nor left” has led to disenchantment among the former socialist voters who rallied to Macron’s En Marche! party. They think his economic and fiscal policies, as well as a forthcoming immigration bill, bear the hallmark of the right.

Students protest in Marseilles on 4 April. ‘Amid a very 1968 atmosphere, they have demanded the resignation of Macron.’ Photograph: Bertrand Langlois/AFP/Getty Images

On top of that, many resent what they see as social arrogance from the president and the young technocrats surrounding him. They recognise that these have given the country a positive image it hasn’t enjoyed for years – a return of overseas and domestic investment, a fall in unemployment and a budget deficit under the 3% eurozone target for the first time in a decade – but they see the governing team and its head as disconnected from the tough social reality many people face.

These voters haven’t deserted Macron but feel increasing unease, as they see no obvious political alternative. The president can still regain their trust and support, and brave the current challenges, as many people don’t want to go back to the paralysis of previous governments. But it will not be enough for him to just stay firm in the face of strikers and protesters. The president will first have to reassess his policies and the pace of his reforms – and then, even more difficult, to modify his personal style and methods.

It’s not enough to be certain you are right, if the citizens don’t see and feel it that way. And, right now, too many of them don’t.

• Pierre Haski is a former deputy editor of Libération and the founder of Rue89.com