Is this reminiscent of something? Or is it just me?

This was supposed to be the year of Republican dominance. Early on, the talking points from the GOP had to do with how deep the GOP presidential bench was. So much talent! So many options! By contrast, the Democrats, decimated by the 2014 midterm elections could barely muster 6 candidates, and 3 of them barely had any name recognition.

But, even if you are done with the past, as the old adage goes, the past may not be done with you. The simple truth is that the GOP has become heavily invested in disinformation, anti-intellectualism, and racial baiting. The simple truth is that in the wake of Citizens United, the way money is used in politics has become a major factor in who wins elections and how.

First and foremost, the FOX News channel has made common cause with the GOP and has engaged in not merely sympathetic reporting but outright advocacy. As the analysis offered in The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism indicates, FOX has been instrumental in creating the Tea Party and also in obfuscating important, crucial issues in order to provide a counterpoint to the Democratic Party. However, that counterpoint is not based on serious debate, based on information, or facts, but, rather on opinion (often divorced from facts) peddled by popular FOX News personalities like Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, or Bill O’Reilly.

It has been a decade and a half since George W Bush first run for president. So … considering that the hardcore base of GOP supporters gets its information from FOX News, are we to be surprised that they believe climate change is a liberal invention, are we to be surprised that most GOP supporters know nothing of Islam except that it is based on the Quran (a vile book that needs to be burned!) and that Muslims engage in jihad? Are we to be surprised that GOP supporters believe that the ACA (also known as Obamacare) contains “death panels” or that most of them think (contrary to facts) that their taxes have gone up under President Barack Obama?

In short. It was nice going at first. FOX advocated for the GOP and FOX carried water on so many issues. But. FOX also created, much to the GOP’s dismay, a misinformed, bigoted, and angry base. A base that believes opinion over fact. A base that cannot understand why the GOP’s Congressional majorities need to engage in some sort of compromise in order to govern the country. A base, moreover, that believes things are already so much on the brink that a default on the government’s debt (as in the GOP refusing to raise the debt ceiling) is nothing to be scared of. Again, I will bring up the excellent The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism– according to the conclusions of the authors, members of the Tea Party invested substantial time and effort in learning about procedure and election rules, but are, in fact, woefully misinformed about the issues.

So here we are. 2015. Unfortunately, the misinformation being spouted by FOX for over a decade now has caught up with the party. Rationality? It can only be based on facts, on correct information. As it is, the GOP contenders now have to fight for the votes of people who believe Obama and Clinton intended to kill Americans so they conspired to let Benghazi happen (did they high-five each other as the reports of American deaths came in? … we don’t know).

Why do I bring up all this, before even mentioning Trump’s name once? Because this is the environment in which GOP contenders are now running. This is the environment that has enabled the best showman to capture the imagination of the GOP base… after all, much like the FOX News personalities, he creates his own facts, engages in name calling and can turn any issue to his advantage because he appeals to fear, to basest instincts, and to a form of lowest common denominator that rests on the assuredness of the ignoramus and the pride of the bully.

Have you visited the Free Republic website lately? Trump supporters revel in what they see as the “downfall” of the establishment. Of course, their heroes are the most uncompromising members of Congress… anyone who votes for anything associated even vaguely with Obama or the Democrats is a RINO (Republican in Name Only) who deserves anything from a primary challenge to a death by lightning from the sky.

Trump reared his head in 2012 as well… Do you remember? He created media frenzy by claiming that he had “new information” regarding Obama’s birth certificate. And then that turned out to be nothing. Romney, according to the classic account of the 2012 election, Double Down, needed Trump’s endorsement but tried to make sure he is never photographed with him, or anywhere near him.

So. Contrary to what many pundits think, I believe Trump’s run is for real. That is, I do not think he is doing this just to enhance his trademark and improve his visibility. Because, in many ways, the GOP base can identify with him. He is not especially well-spoken or especially brilliant… Which plays into the hands of the anti-intellectual core of the GOP – he is like them. And, he behaves like the GOP has behaved in the last 15 years or so – a dumb bully, who throws his weight around and prevails by sheer force of will, facts be damned.

Here is the problem, though. The business wing of the GOP is, I believe, becoming seriously alarmed by the know-nothing blitheness of the base, who are willing to go for broke just to score points. Time was, national interests reigned supreme. But now, it appears that the fact-based, scientific, reality-grounded business wing of the GOP is freaking out about what they see at the socially conservative end of the spectrum. Could this split the GOP? Not if Trump is the nominee. Because here is the danger. The base loves his unabashed and unapologetic bombast and in-your-face fight. But… Because he himself is a part of the GOP business wing, he may be the last person ever who can unify the Tea Party loyalists and the business wing “adults” … because most of the business wing know him personally, because they will think that his crazy pronouncements are just meant to energize the base, because they will assume that once in office he will be a pragmatic – that he will do what is necessary for the country.

No… America does not deserve such a president. Trump has no experience with politics… he has no history of advocacy for issues that matter to most voters. His claims that he is “the best negotiator” or that he is a “strong leader” contradict facts – he has at least 5 bankruptcies, when he was bailed out by the federal government. He is one of the beneficiaries of the “high taxes” he wants to slash. And… merely as an aside … is he even aware that his biggest Atlantic City casino, the Taj Mahal, is named after the monument built by an inconsolable young MUSLIM prince for the love of his life? Probably not.

Will America survive such a presidency? What is to “survive”? When Reagan defeated Carter, he began a conservative revolution, and an experiment called “trickle-down economics” whose consequences we are still battling today. When George W Bush prevailed against Al Gore (by Supreme Court fiat), he took the country down the disastrous path of the Iraq War… and further deregulation that resulted in the 2007 financial meltdown. What is to survive? To merely continue to exist? Reagan and Bush 43 both hijacked the trajectory of America’s path. Reagan pioneered outsourcing… And look where we are today!!! George W Bush enacted unreasonable, ruinous tax cuts… and we still cannot get rid of them… What is to “survive”? Bill Clinton’s presidency was a period of prosperity and growth… Obama’s presidency finally achieved a more egalitarian health care system… and marriage equality.

What is to “survive”? Can we begin to countenance even 4 years of a Trump presidency? More tax cuts, more deregulation… a possible gutting of ACA? The appointment to the Supreme Court of more judges in the mold of Alito or Scalia? More offshore drilling… no commonsense action on guns… and more uninformed engagement in the Middle East where Trump has promised more bombing and more violence? And, … more bigotry and Islamophobia at home.

I write this on December 8. Today is the sad anniversary of John Lennon’s death. Killed by a guy who bought his gun legally in Hawaii and brought it to New York for this. Yesterday was the anniversary of the Pearl Harbor attack. Lives lost in Japan’s attack on Hawaii and, sadly, the end of America’s innocence. So, I ask again. What is it like, to “survive”? To betray who we are, as people and individuals? To settle? To miss an opportunity to counteract climate change? To “survive”…

No, America does not deserve a Trump presidency. Do you say a cigarette smoker “deserves” cancer? I, for one, empathize with the GOP base. They have been lied to from so many quarters. They have been taken for granted and exploited. And, like many of the rest of us, they are not especially rich, or more enlightened... they do not have better safety networks. And yet they are the ones who want the repeal of ACA, who favor the privatization of Social Security, when their elderly parents will surely suffer, they are the ones whose children will die in all the wars (against Iran or Daesh) that GOP contenders are itching to start.

No… America cannot afford a Trump presidency. It may “survive” … But with each Nixon, or Reagan or GW Bush, it is diminished, it is simply forced to betray its origins and its ideals. I wish this on no one. So Trump cannot be allowed to become president. For the sake of our country, and our children, and our future…