Dombrowski: Tigers 'probably not' re-signing Max Scherzer

A few months ago, president and general manager Dave Dombrowski was asked about a window.

It was shortly after the season ended in early October, too soon for another year in which a World Series title was the Tigers' only goal, and among other things like the bullpen, he was asked about this window to win a championship.

What does he think of it? Did he think it was closing?

"I don't buy it," Dombrowski said. "And I think there's a couple of reasons. First of all, we have a good team, and we have a good foundation coming back. And I don't think there's many clubs in baseball that would take their starting four going into our off-season with the starting four we know that we have."

The Tigers have a good team and a good foundation coming back. But the foundation on which they built four consecutive American League Central championships is showing cracks.

And those cracks are questions that point to an answer Dombrowski didn't say then and needn't say now: The window is Max Scherzer.

At the owners' meetings in Paradise Valley, Ariz., Dombrowski was asked by Ken Davidoff of the New York Post today if he thought they would re-sign the free-agent right-hander.

"I would say no, probably not," Dombrowski said.

But without re-signing Scherzer, that starting four will be slimmed down to three in 2015.

And with David Price due to hit free agency next winter, it likely will be cut to two in 2016.

And those two are Justin Verlander, who is an ace with an asterisk after an average 2014, and Anibal Sanchez, whose right shoulder isn't spotless.

Scherzer, 30, has averaged a 3.24 ERA and 241 strikeouts since 2012.

He won the American League Cy Young in 2013, finished fifth in 2014 and is one of the top starters in the majors.

He not only offers the Tigers the short-term impact needed to distance themselves from the pack, but also the long-term stability at the top of the rotation to keep them there in the future.

Scherzer doesn't come without risk — signing power pitchers for big bucks into their late 30s is just that — and he won't return to Detroit without a substantial raise over the six-year, $144-million contract offered last spring.

But a contract of that caliber is not up to Dombrowski, but rather 85-year-old owner Mike Ilitch, who has come so close but yet so far from the World Series title he covets.

But before you get to the World Series, you must get to the postseason.

And the most proven way to get there, the Tigers have proven four times over, is with strong starting pitching.

"We love Max," Dombrowski said at the winter meetings last month, and he could have been speaking for 29 other teams.

The Dodgers haven't closed the door. The Cardinals are seeking a frontline starter. And Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said recently about their off-season: "It's not over until it's over."

For the Tigers, Scherzer represents the difference between a division contender and a World Series contender.

Dombrowski might not buy the notion of a window closing on a championship run, but if the mid-January stalemate between the Tigers and Scherzer ends with him in another jersey, the Tigers' lead in the arms race would be over when it's over.

Contact Anthony Fenech: afenech@freepress.com . Follow him on Twitter @anthonyfenech .

Call to arms

The Tigers' rotation likely is set, with Justin Verlander, David Price, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon in the five spots right now. But the Tigers might be looking to move Price or shift Simon to the bullpen. A look at the top free-agent starters still available:

Max Scherzer

He's the elephant in the market, thanks to consecutive top-five finishes in AL Cy Young voting, and his choice of teams — St. Louis? New York Yankees? Los Angeles? Detroit? — will start the dominos falling.

James Shields

He's nearly three years older than Scherzer, which could make him a more affordable fit for many teams priced out of the Scherzer hunt. Shields also posted a 3.17 ERA and averaged 206 strikeouts over the past four seasons.

Chris Young

Last season's AL comeback player of the year rediscovered his stuff, if not his old strikeout habits, in Seattle. He'll turn 36 in May, but as a one-year option, he could make sense for a team looking to win now.