Good morning on this, the 21st day before Election Day. Hillary Clinton’s chances reached 91 percent last night — their highest point yet in this election cycle. The latest rise comes from gains in Arizona and Georgia, as well as hints of further weakness in typically safe red states like Alaska and Utah. From the beginning, Donald J. Trump faced a challenging electoral map, and his campaign has not improved his chances. At this point, even a large polling miss would not be enough for Mr. Trump to win — it will take a sudden and striking change in the fundamentals of the presidential race. As a rule of thumb, we should expect Election Day polling averages to miss by as much as 3 to 4 points: Mrs. Clinton’s current lead in the national popular vote is around 6 to 7 points and growing. With early voting already underway in several states, Mr. Trump’s next (and perhaps last) opportunity to alter the dynamics of the race will come with the third and final presidential debate tomorrow night. Here are the latest national polls from the past week: Polls Monmouth University Rasmussen CBS News UPI/CVoter Politico/Morning Consult ABC News/Washington Post NBC News/Wall Street Journal GWU/Battleground Rasmussen Fox News Insights West