You may have wondered whether there really is a ‘dip’ every weekend as I’ve heard and if you could make more returns out of it. Here is a very basic analysis of the daily price changes from Jan 2017 to Feb 2018 I did to answer that question for myself.

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. It is historical analysis. All coins can come crashing down to zero. So, never risk more than you (and your family) can afford to lose.

I took the daily price since Jan 2017 from coingecko.com who provide a handy csv download tool, thanks guys. That means it covers the recent rising and falling market behaviours. It gives the price at 00:00, the start of each day. From that I calculated the daily % increase over 24h periods. Then I converted the date to weekdays. This let me create this boxplot by day.

BTC/EUR daily % change

You see that there is no statistically significant difference between the days of the week. If we then look at the mean and standard deviation by weekday there is a similar story, although something seems to have been happening on Thursdays.

BTC/EUR Change by day of week

So, trying to buy or sell on a particular day of the week is not going to guarantee you better returns. The standard deviations are so large compared to the mean that accurate predictions can’t be made (But you knew that already if you are in crypto more than 2 days!).

Having said that, what if you were to have consistently sold on Wednesday night and then bought back in on Thursday nights for the last year, you’d be ahead with an average daily increase of 0.78% instead of the actual 0.67% average daily increase.

Going forward, I’m not going to try to play the ‘day of week’ game because I’m too lazy, exchange fees, and uncertainty. I’ll just keep my BTC on my Ledger Nano safely away from temptation until this new technology plays out.

Again, this is not investment advice, nor am I a trader or statistician, there are probably mistakes in my analysis, and it’s definitely incomplete. Just thought you’d like to see it.