Oil crashed Tuesday, with crude oil prices dropping from about $95 to $91 in a matter of minutes.

There were various theories for why, but the most compelling one is that there seems to be a lot more production than estimated.

Morgan Stanley sent out a note Tuesday evening from the analyst Adam Longson that contains this table of production numbers/estimates for key producers. The key thing is that production is on the rise almost everywhere. Check out Libya, where output for the month surged to its highest level of the year. Everyone was freaking out about Libya earlier in the year, and now it's surging.

So in addition to a strengthening dollar and weakening China (and possibly weakening Russia and Europe) you have some serious production numbers now. It all adds up to a crash.