by Aaron Schatz

With teams closely packed together in the 2016 DVOA ratings, it doesn't take a lot of change to produce a new No. 1 team. The Dallas Cowboys move ahead of the New England Patriots and into the top spot, as their win over Tampa Bay had a slightly higher rating than New England's win over Denver. The two teams were separated by less than 0.5% last week and they are separated by less than 0.5% this week, but the Cowboys are in the lead. This is the first time the Dallas Cowboys have ranked No. 1 in DVOA since Week 5 of the 1997 season.

However, the more interesting story here might be the team that moves into the top spot in weighted DVOA this week: the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are simultaneously the most inconsistent team in the league this year (26.2% variance) and the most balanced team in the league this year (the only team in the top ten on both offense and defense, with above-average special teams as well). The Steelers are only one-tenth of one percent ahead of New England in weighted DVOA, and their rise to No. 1 in weighted DVOA is a bit of a fluke having to do with the way the weights for different weeks work. There's a big drop in the strength of games more than 12 weeks old, which means that Pittsburgh's 34-3 shellacking at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles became a lot less important in the rating this week. Usually, this effect is negligible; only a handful of games each year are as bad as that Steelers game, and usually those teams are bad most other weeks as well. The Steelers are an exception -- not only because they've been so much better since that game, but because they went out just one week later and had one of the best games of the season by any team, beating Kansas City 43-14. That means that Pittsburgh's weighted DVOA is going to drop next week when the Kansas City game drops significantly in strength. Again, this effect is usually negligible because it is not common for a team to follow up a game below -90% DVOA with a game above 90% DVOA.

Then again, the Steelers' No. 1 rank in weighted DVOA isn't that much of a fluke considering that they also rank No. 3 in full-season DVOA. But their inconsistency does give me a chance to bring out the colored week-to-week DVOA graphs for the first time this season. Ben Roethlisberger's inconsistency has been a big story (9.0% variance on offense) but the defense has also been hugely inconsistent (8.9%, the most inconsistent defense).

The Steelers are far from the most inconsistent team in DVOA history, but 2016 has brought us the opposite, as the New York Giants may end up as the most consistent team in DVOA history. Right now, the Giants have a 2.5% variance. The record belongs to the 1990 Los Angeles Raiders at 3.3%, followed by the 2013 New England Patriots at 4.5%. Check out the Giants' week-to-week graph compared to the Steelers. What the two teams have in common is that they are playing their best football right now. The Giants have had their four best single-game DVOA ratings of the year over the last five weeks. The Steelers have had three of their top five games of the season over the last four weeks.

Nearly every team between the Steelers at No. 3 and the Giants at No. 11 saw its DVOA rating drop a little bit this week. Those kings of close losses, the Philadelphia Eagles, went back up a spot to fifth, but only because Kansas City's rating fell more than Philadelphia's. (You can read more about Kansas City's fall and running game problems in this week's Any Given Sunday.) The Eagles have also fallen to 14th in weighted DVOA, in part for the same reason Pittsburgh is now No. 1. Atlanta, Green Bay, and Oakland all went down a little bit despite winning their games this week. Seattle stayed roughly the same but went up a spot to No. 9.

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I've written a lot about the Year of No Great Teams, but it is certainly not a year of no great players. However, some of the greatness isn't quite as obvious because it comes on special teams. Vincent Verhei put a spotlight on Johnny Hekker in Quick Reads a couple weeks ago, but it's worth acknowledging the historic seasons that both Hekker and Justin Tucker are having in 2016. Both players are on pace to set records, as the most valuable punter and placekicker since Football Outsiders stats begin in 1989.

Let's start with Hekker. Based on our current baselines, Johnny Hekker's punts for the Los Angeles Rams have been worth an estimated 26.3 points worth of field position compared to what we would expect from an average punter who punted from the same locations all year, adjusted for weather and altitude. That's more than double any other punter in the league; Sam Martin of the Lions is No. 2 at 11.0 points. Right now, the record for net punt value in a season belongs to... the 2013 St. Louis Rams, whose punter was Johnny Hekker. That year, Hekker was worth 22.4 points over average.

Here's a look at the top 10:

BEST NET PUNTING, 1989-2016 Year Team Punt Pts+ Punter 2016 LARM 26.3 Johnny Hekker 2013 STL 22.4 Johnny Hekker 2002 HOU 20.9 Chad Stanley 2008 BAL 19.7 Sam Koch 2012 ARI 19.7 Dave Zastudil 2011 CHI 19.7 Adam Podlesh 1992 PHX 19.1 Rich Camarillo 1990 PHX 19.1 Rich Camarillo 1989 PHX 19.0 Rich Camarillo 2012 CHI 18.8 Adam Podlesh

(A quick note: this is net punt value, not gross punt value, because I don't have time right now to collate 27 years of our gross punt values.)

Justin Tucker's performance for the Baltimore Ravens may be even more impressive than what Hekker is doing. His only missed field goal all year was blocked by the Patriots two weeks ago, when Shea McClellin leaped over the Baltimore center. He's 33-of-34, including 10-of-10 from 50 yards or more. That comes out to 24.3 points more than the average placekicker would score in the same situations, adjusted for weather and altitude. Like Hekker, Tucker has more than twice as much value as any other kicker; Adam Vinatieri is second at 9.5 points over average. As an added bonus, Tucker has been worth 5.7 points over average on net kickoffs, which ranks fifth in the league.

Right now, Tucker would be the best placekicker we've ever measured by a huge margin. The gap is bigger than the gap between second and tenth. Remember, our methods adjust the baseline each year as the average kicker becomes more and more accurate. The 2016 baselines are down from the 2015 baselines, but they higher than the baselines were 10 or 20 years ago. Tucker is not only better than everyone else, he's better when judged by a more difficult standard.

BEST FG/XP VALUE,1989-2016 Year Team FG Pts+ Kicker 2016 BAL 24.3 Justin Tucker 2005 ARI 19.6 Neil Rackers 1998 MIN 19.1 Gary Anderson 1997 KC 17.4 Pete Stoyanovich 1989 DET 16.7 Eddie Murray 2011 OAK 16.6 Sebastian Janikowski 1990 KC 16.6 Nick Lowery 2003 IND 15.9 Mike Vanderjagt 2002 NE 15.6 Adam Vinatieri 2009 OAK 15.0 Sebastian Janikowski

Consider all the clutch field goals missed around the league this season, and then consider that Baltimore has five wins by less than a touchdown. Then consider the gap between Justin Tucker and every other player in the league at his position, and consider how much Tucker's performance depends on him alone compared to how much offensive and defensive players depend upon their teammates. He's a legitimate MVP candidate: not the guy who should win the award, but a guy who should be in the discussion of the top five or top ten.

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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 17 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. The best player of each week, the Football Outsiders Hero, will require you to collect a set of the other four Football Outsiders players that week, plus a certain number of Football Outsiders collectibles available in Madden Ultimate Team packs.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 15 are:

QB Drew Brees, NO (FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS HERO): Led all Week 15 QB with 187 DYAR (37-of-48, 389 yards, 4 TD).

Led all Week 15 QB with 187 DYAR (37-of-48, 389 yards, 4 TD). K Chris Boswell, PIT: 6 field goals, including 5 of 40-plus yards despite below-freezing temperatures.

6 field goals, including 5 of 40-plus yards despite below-freezing temperatures. LE David Irving, DAL: 2 sacks, 5 QB hits, 6 hurries, PD.

2 sacks, 5 QB hits, 6 hurries, PD. LT Jake Matthews, ATL: No sacks allowed; Falcons RB had 11 carries for 66 yards and a TD to the left side.

No sacks allowed; Falcons RB had 11 carries for 66 yards and a TD to the left side. CB Logan Ryan, NE: Interception, led team with 7 combined tackles; allowed just 2 catches for 20 yards, but one was for 13 yards on third-and-15.

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All player/team DVOA stats pages are now updated through Week 15 of 2016. Playoff odds, snap counts, and the premium DVOA database are also fully updated. Drive stats and pace stats will be updated later this evening.

If you're looking for more of my thoughts on the Football Outsiders playoff odds and DVOA ratings, you can also read my playoff odds commentary at ESPN Insider.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 15 weeks of 2016, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DAL 21.2% 2 22.7% 3 12-2 22.0% 2 2.2% 20 1.5% 12 2 NE 20.7% 1 24.9% 2 12-2 19.1% 3 0.9% 19 2.5% 8 3 PIT 17.2% 4 25.0% 1 9-5 10.5% 10 -5.8% 9 0.9% 13 4 ATL 16.9% 3 17.7% 4 9-5 25.6% 1 11.7% 27 3.0% 7 5 PHI 12.0% 6 5.4% 14 5-9 -6.7% 22 -10.5% 6 8.1% 1 6 GB 11.8% 7 11.3% 7 8-6 13.8% 7 -0.3% 17 -2.3% 24 7 OAK 11.2% 8 11.3% 8 11-3 13.9% 6 4.3% 22 1.6% 11 8 KC 11.1% 5 11.2% 9 10-4 0.6% 13 -3.9% 12 6.6% 3 9 SEA 10.0% 10 7.9% 12 9-4-1 -4.6% 19 -12.8% 4 1.8% 9 10 BAL 9.4% 11 15.0% 5 8-6 -10.2% 25 -15.3% 2 4.3% 6 11 NYG 7.8% 12 9.6% 11 10-4 -6.2% 21 -14.3% 3 -0.4% 17 12 WAS 7.5% 9 9.6% 10 7-6-1 15.6% 5 8.2% 25 0.1% 15 13 TEN 6.4% 16 12.9% 6 8-6 13.7% 8 5.6% 23 -1.7% 20 14 DEN 5.6% 13 2.2% 18 8-6 -11.1% 26 -18.8% 1 -2.2% 23 15 BUF 5.0% 15 6.2% 13 7-7 11.9% 9 6.0% 24 -0.9% 18 16 SD 3.2% 17 1.1% 20 5-9 -2.2% 18 -7.9% 7 -2.5% 25 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 NO 1.5% 18 3.7% 17 6-8 17.1% 4 12.6% 29 -3.1% 28 18 TB 1.1% 19 5.0% 15 8-6 -1.5% 16 -4.6% 11 -2.0% 22 19 MIA -0.3% 21 2.1% 19 9-5 -2.1% 17 -1.8% 16 0.0% 16 20 CIN -0.4% 20 -0.1% 22 5-8-1 4.6% 11 3.2% 21 -1.8% 21 21 CHI -1.9% 22 4.0% 16 3-11 -1.3% 15 0.8% 18 0.2% 14 22 MIN -2.3% 14 -10.3% 25 7-7 -11.7% 27 -7.8% 8 1.6% 10 23 CAR -3.9% 23 -3.0% 23 6-8 -6.0% 20 -4.9% 10 -2.9% 27 24 IND -4.2% 25 0.9% 21 7-7 2.3% 12 11.8% 28 5.2% 4 25 ARI -5.5% 24 -9.9% 24 5-8-1 -9.7% 24 -10.9% 5 -6.7% 30 26 DET -10.9% 26 -10.8% 26 9-5 0.0% 14 15.9% 31 5.0% 5 27 JAC -13.0% 27 -13.3% 27 2-12 -13.1% 28 -3.0% 14 -2.8% 26 28 SF -22.0% 28 -22.1% 28 1-13 -7.3% 23 13.8% 30 -0.9% 19 29 LARM -22.1% 29 -23.4% 30 4-10 -31.9% 32 -2.2% 15 7.6% 2 30 HOU -23.0% 30 -22.6% 29 8-6 -19.4% 31 -3.3% 13 -6.9% 31 31 NYJ -35.9% 31 -38.3% 31 4-10 -18.2% 30 10.3% 26 -7.4% 32 32 CLE -38.4% 32 -39.6% 32 0-14 -14.7% 29 19.6% 32 -4.1% 29

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).