GOP's fate in Wisconsin this fall is tied to the widening gender gap over Trump

Barack Obama was a popular guy in Wisconsin, winning here twice with ease.

But he was never, ever as popular with male voters in Wisconsin as Donald Trump is today.

At the same time, even at the lowest points of his presidency, Obama was far more popular with female voters in Wisconsin than Trump has ever been.

Both presidents have faced a gender gap.

But Trump’s gender gap looks nothing like Obama’s, and the differences are illuminating.

With roughly two weeks to go in the campaign, the gender gap over President Trump and the two parties is shaping this election.

Trump has terrible numbers with women (34 percent approval), according to the most recent Wisconsin poll conducted by the Marquette Law School. But he enjoys his highest approval ever with men (59 percent). The size of that gap is unprecedented in Marquette’s polling.

Trump’s gains among men and his unpopularity with women are potent, competing forces in the 2018 mid-terms.

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This is a closer look at the Trump gender divide in this state. To put it in perspective, we compared it with the gender divide over his predecessor in the White House, drawing on the 49 statewide polls conducted by Marquette since the beginning of 2012, which have surveyed more than 42,000 registered voters in Wisconsin.

What are the major differences?

The most obvious one is that Democrat Obama was more popular with women than men, and Republican Trump is the opposite, reflecting a familiar partisan pattern.

The second is that Trump’s gender gap is a whole lot bigger. Obama’s average approval rating from 2012 to 2016 in Wisconsin was 53 percent with female voters and 44 percent with male voters, a gender gap of 9 points. Trump has averaged 34 percent approval among women and 53 percent among men during his nearly two years in office, a gender gap of 19 points — twice as large as Obama’s.

Trump’s gender gap is bigger than the gender gap over any other politician in Wisconsin. Nationally, it is unprecedented in presidential polling.

And the Trump gender gap is different from the Obama gender gap not just in size but in kind.

There was no gender gap over Obama within parties in Wisconsin, meaning men and women of the same party gave him virtually the same job ratings.

Obama’s average approval was 8 percent among Republican women and 9 percent among Republican men in five years of polling by Marquette. It was 90 percent among Democratic women and 90 percent among Democratic men.

But Trump is a different case.

Trump’s average approval is 84 percent among Republican women in eight Marquette polls since he took office. But it is 4 points higher (88 percent) among Republican men. His average approval is 3 percent among Democratic women. But it is 4 points higher (7 percent) among Democratic men.

In other words, the gender gap over Trump is so pronounced it exists even among people who share the same strong party identity. (To underscore that point, we’re talking here about strong partisans, not independents who “lean” toward one party).

What about independent voters?

Obama’s average approval among independent voters in Wisconsin was just under 48 percent among women and just over 42 percent among men — a gap of less than 6 points.

Trump’s average approval among independents is just under 30 percent with women and over 46 percent with men — a gap of almost 17 points.

In short, Trump’s gender gap among independents is three times bigger than Obama’s.

Another difference involves the education divide over Trump, which combined with the gender gap has produced some startling patterns in the Trump era.

College voters are more negative toward Trump than “non-college” voters, just as women are more negative than men. Combine the two and the gaps become truly massive.

In Marquette’s 2018 polling, 61 percent of white men without college degrees approve of Trump, compared with 29 percent of white women with college degrees. That gender/education divide over Trump is far bigger in Wisconsin than it was over Obama.

These divides aren’t unique to Trump. They existed before he came along. In Marquette’s long-term polling, white men without college degrees have been increasingly identifying with the Republican Party and white women with college degrees have shown movement toward the Democratic Party. (The other two groups, college men and non-college women, have moved very little in their party leanings).

But it is also clear from the polling that Trump has always inspired unusually disparate reactions from men and women. Whether as candidate or president, he has drawn worse ratings from women and better from men both inside and outside the two parties. His gender gap was sizable as a candidate. And it has grown even larger as president.

The numbers in the Marquette poll released Oct. 10 were staggering: a 25-point gender gap among all registered voters, a 30-point gap among independents. Those are numbers we’ve never seen before in Marquette’s polling. The same poll recorded the biggest gender gap ever over GOP Gov. Scott Walker (20 points) and over Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin’s (18 points). Both are up for re-election.

This spike in the gender gap in Marquette’s last poll could have been influenced by the U.S. Supreme Court confirmation battle over Brett Kavanaugh. It could have been partly a polling blip, since the gender gap tends to bounce around from survey to survey.

But the long-term pattern is clear. The gender gap has grown in the Trump era, reflecting differences over his policies, rhetoric, leadership style and behavior. Trump and his party have lost ground with women. But they have gained ground with men.

Since views of the president are expected to be a huge driver of the November elections, the contours of the Trump gender gap will be critical.

Will female voters sink his party?

Will male voters save it?