Leave Alliance: Brexit didn’t have to be harmful – but mismanagement may make it that way The latest paper from the Institute of Economic Affairs represents the very worst of current conservative thinking on Brexit. It […]

The latest paper from the Institute of Economic Affairs represents the very worst of current conservative thinking on Brexit. It indicates that statecraft is no longer an instinct within the Conservative Party.

Trade is the art of making careful individual decisions designed to increase wealth and prosperity. Strategic decision making. Each of those decisions must be evaluated for the public good – not just in terms of GDP. There are political, environmental, social and defence concerns – all of which must be considered. Opting for unilateralism is an abdication from good governance.

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Though this is not presently Government policy, we may yet find it is the default. The latest position papers from the Government are so conceptually out of kilter with reality that agreement may not be possible. Completing the process in two years was always a big ask even with the most meticulous planning possible. Now it would seem we have missed the window of opportunity.

Unilateralism Making decisions without consulting other nations or allies

Government asking for impossible

The Government is asking for the impossible. The land border in Ireland is set to become the EU’s outer frontier – and frictionless trade without major concessions from the EU is undeliverable. We are grateful, however, that the EU recognises the necessity to overcome this obstacle. This will require an agreement separate to any UK trade settlement.

“Completing the process in two years was always a big ask even with the most meticulous planning possible. Now it would seem we have missed the window of opportunity.”

It is not within the gift of the EU to override the rules concerning its outer frontier – and inclusion of exceptions in a wider trade agreement would set a precedent it cannot allow. If the UK is unwilling to accept this then we are at an impasse – and wasting time we do not have.

Barely out of the starting block

Arguably we have already crossed the event horizon. By now we should have seen the basic issues reaching some sort of resolution. Instead we are barely out of the starting block. Crashing out without a deal now seems probable. There is insufficient wisdom in Government to realise the consequences of allowing it.

Should this happen, we default to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules whereby all formal relations with the EU (and by proxy the rest of the world) come to an abrupt end. As an emergency measure we may very well be forced to unilaterally drop tariffs – not only for the EU but for all countries, as per WTO rules.

“There is a good chance the UK would never fully recover and lost business will likely not return. It will result on austerity on steroids.”

This is not “project fear”. This is a matter of observable law. Britain would lose all of its preferential trade agreements and would lose its right to participate in EU single market systems. We’d be hit by a wave of red tape virtually overnight. The EU has very specific protocols for third countries – and those are the rules with which we must comply or no trade happens. It’s that simple.

Major national humiliation

Since we do not have the people, facilities or software in place, we are looking at a major national humiliation. That likely means a lost decade of trade while we rebuild the basics – but with a permanently tarnished reputation. There is a good chance the UK would never fully recover and lost business will likely not return. It will result on austerity on steroids.

The Leave Alliance has always argued that Brexit is a process, not an event. A bespoke framework was always overambitious and even adapting off the shelf models would present us with some difficult dilemmas. The failure to acknowledge this has set us on course for calamity.

There was nothing preordained about Brexit being permanently harmful. What we are seeing here is Conservative maladministration that may cost the UK its future. Parliament urgently needs to assert itself and up its game. Unchecked, this Government will ruin us.

Pete North is a founding member of The Leave Alliance, which is a network of pragmatic pro-single market leave campaigners and bloggers. The alliance wants to see the UK as part of the European Free Trade Association, taking a lead role in global multilateral trade.