Jesse Ferguson

For a political party that often seems to be Lost in Space, Republicans should be hearing “Danger, Will Robinson!” alarms.

We need look no further than the special election in Kansas’s Fourth Congressional District to see the warning signs: a Republican won by 7 points in a seat that Trump won by 27 points only six months ago. That’s a 20-point swing. By my count, there are 120 Republican-held congressional districts where Trump won by 20 or fewer points. Obviously, that doesn’t mean that Democrats are going to win all 120 of those seats in 2018 — but 120 Republican members of Congress probably didn’t sleep well last Tuesday night.

The problem is the party's legislative and political stumbles are piling up. For instance, they won the battle to get Justice Neil Gorsuch on to the Supreme Court, but the way they did it — by depriving former President Barack Obama of an appointment and then overturning the Senate rules — is the latest data point that leads them to lose the war. Gorsuch’s confirmation will be a distant memory by the 2018 midterm election campaign. What will last is the impression that Republicans in Congress will do anything it takes to get their way.

Part of that includes sticking with and protecting a compromised and unpopular president. Trump pushes Republicans to walk the plank for him on issue after issue, from health care repeal to budget cuts and much more, even if it hurts his own voters. And he expects them to defend him in self-inflicted scandal after scandal — so much that they are coming dangerously close to being seen as accomplices in Trump’s sustained effort to hide his tax returns and ties to Russia. If that happens, they can wave goodbye to their control of Congress.

A Quinnipiac University survey this month shows the peril for Republicans in standing behind Trump. His job approval rating was negative by a staggering 22 points (35% approval compared to 57% disapproval). More alarmingly, 49% of the 57% who disapprove are people who “strongly” disapprove, while a meager 25% strongly approve. That 2-to-1 intensity ratio should jar anyone looking at the 2018 electorate.

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Trump’s approval rating is tanking for the same reason that association with him is so dangerous for the GOP: He is losing on the key traits and qualities that matter most to ordinary people. He’s considered not honest by 27 points (61% to 34%), thought not to care about average Americans by 18 points (57% to 39%), found to be not level-headed by 37 points (66% to 29%), and believed not to share their values by 27 points (61% to 34%).

Voters certainly don’t believe that every Republican in Congress is a carbon copy of Trump. But a Congress filled with Trump apologists and rubber stamps, even if they’re not replicas, would be held just as responsible for the untold damage that he and his agenda would do to the country.

Two GOP congressmen are a cautionary tale. House Intelligence chairman Devin Nunes tried so hard to protect Trump that’s he’s no longer in charge of his own committee's Russia probe. And Rep. Ted Yoho defended Nunes by arguing: “You’ve got to keep in mind who he works for. He works for the president, and he answers to the president.”

Not quite, as Yoho belatedly admitted. All members of Congress answer to their constituents. They want to know that their elected officials will represent their interests. What they’re seeing in Washington is a Republican Party that represents Trump’s interests instead.

When it came to health care, only 17% of the country supported the GOP’s repeal bill. Three-quarters want Trump to release his tax returns, so we can uncover what is or isn't driving his financial interests. And most people now support an independent investigation into the Trump team’s Russia ties.

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Any direction you look, you can see the damage Trump is doing to his party. Republicans in Congress are at 70% disapproval. House Speaker Paul Ryan is increasingly disliked. “As President Trump’s approval tanks, Congress, especially Republicans, follow right behind him,” Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, said recently.

Voters back home are showing Republicans during the congressional recess how they feel about unwavering support for Trump. A town hall meeting last week in a swing district in Colorado prompted CNN to report, “Angry constituents ask GOP Rep. Mike Coffman to choose between them or Trump.” We should expect to see more of this unless and until Republicans in Congress step up and show they’re not Trump rubber-stamps or accomplices.

Issues like hiding tax returns are no longer insider baseball in Washington — they are proof points in a narrative. It’s a time for choosing for Republicans. Will they put country over party? If they give the wrong answer, they’ll be answering for it all election season.

Jesse Ferguson was deputy national press secretary for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. Earlier he was executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Independent Expenditure Program and communications director of the DCCC. Follow him on Twitter @JesseFFerguson.

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