Voters think President Trump has more to lose in the growing Ukraine controversy than leading Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden, but they still see Trump’s reelection as a surer shot than impeachment.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters think Trump is more likely than Biden to be found guilty of breaking the law in his dealings with Ukrainian officials. Thirty-four percent (34%) say Biden is more likely to be the culprit. Six percent (6%) believe both men are likely to be found guilty of criminal wrongdoing. Eight percent (8%) say neither is likely to be found guilty. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

But 46% think it’s more likely that Trump will be reelected in 2020 than defeated by the Democratic nominee or impeached, unchanged from late July.

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Twenty-eight percent (28%) see a win by the Democrats’ candidate as more likely, down from 33% two months ago. Seventeen percent (17%) believe Trump is likely to be impeached before serving his full term in office, up from 11% in the last survey but down from a high of 29% when Rasmussen Reports first asked this question in late December 2017.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of voters say they have been closely following recent news reports about Trump’s and Biden’s dealings with Ukrainian officials, with 55% who have been following Very Closely.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 25-26, 2019 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most voters expect Biden to be the Democratic nominee, but Trump has the edge for now in next year’s presidential race.

Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters are all following the Ukrainian story with equal interest. But predictably most Democrats think Trump is more likely to be found guilty of breaking the law, while the majority of Republicans see Biden as more likely to be guilty. Voters not affiliated with either major party are evenly divided.

Eighty percent (80%) of Republicans think Trump is more likely to be reelected next year, a view shared by just 19% of Democrats and 43% of unaffiliated voters. Democrats (28%) are more likely than GOP voters (6%) and unaffiliateds (17%) to think impeachment is more likely.

Among voters who have followed recent news reports about the Ukrainian controversy Very Closely, 50% say Trump is more likely to be found guilty of breaking the law, while 40% feel that way about Biden. But 48% of these voters think Trump’s reelection is also more likely versus 18% who expect him to be impeached.

In recent surveying prior to the Ukrainian blow-up, just over half of all voters said they are likely to vote against Trump next year, and most of them said Trump, not the Democratic candidate, is the likeliest reason why.

The widely anticipated showdown between Biden and Elizabeth Warren at the most recent Democratic debate was a no-show, and Biden is still comfortably ahead in the race to be his party’s next presidential nominee.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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