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TO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKE IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTU DR. SUSAN SCHWARTZ IS A PROFESSOR IN THE EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES DEPARTMENT AT U-C SANTA CRUZ. HER SPECIALTY IS SEISMOLOGY. SHE STARTED HER CAREER SHORTLY AFTER THE LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE IN 1989. I WAS ACTUALLY INVOLVED IN PUTTING OUT SEISMOMETERS TO RECORD THE AFTERSHOCKS WHILE PEOPLE WERE OUT SURVEYING THE DAMAGE FROM THE QUAKE, DR. SCHWARTZ WAS BUSY COLLECTING DATA. SHE SAYS THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF PROGRESS IN THE PAST 30 YEARS, BUT THIS IS STILL A VERY ACTIVE AREA OF STUDY. I THINK WE LEARNED THAT EARTHQUAKES DO NOT OCCUR IN ISOLATION THAT THEY USUALLY OCCUR IN A FAULT SYSTEM THAT IS MADE OF A LOT OF ADJACENT SEGMENTS OF FAULTS AND SCIENTISTS HAVE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF HOW EARTHQUAKES HAPPEN. THIS IS DRONE VIDEO OF THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT. RESEARCHERS ARE USING HIGH PRECISION GPS STATIONS OVER THAT AREA. DR. SCHWARTZ SAYS THAT TECHNOLOGY BARELY EXISTED DURING LOMA PRIETA. NOW IT'S A GAME CHANGER. IT KIND OF SHOWS THAT WE HAVE LEARNED SOME NEW BASIC THINGS THAT WILL HELP US TO REVISE AND EVENTUALLY LEAD US INTO MUCH BETTER CAPABILITY OF BEING ABLE TO HELP US PREDICT CLOSER OR SPECIFICALLY WHEN EARTHQUAKES WILL HAPPEN. SO WHEN COULD THE "BIG ONE" HAPPEN? THE ESTIMATE IS STILL BY 2032. I THINK THERE IS SOMETHING LIKE A 65% CHANCE THERE WILL BE A SIZABLE EARTHQUAKE IN THE BAY AREA SO THAT STILL HOLDS AND WE DON'T KNOW WHERE AND WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHEN THAT'S WHY DR. SCHWARTZ SAYS IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER LOMA PRIETA...AND THE LESSONS LEARNED FROM THAT DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKE... EARTHQUAKES CANNOT GIVE US A COUPLE OF DAY WARNING BUT BE PREPARED NOW ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU HEAR THE PROBABILITIES THAT WITHIN THE NEXT 25 YEARS THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD. SO BE PREPARED. ##

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Dr. Susan Schwartz is a professor in the Earth and Planetary Sciences Department at the University of California Santa Cruz. Her specialty is seismology. Dr. Schwartz started her career shortly after the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989. She says there has been a lot of progress in the past 30 years, but this is still a very active area of study. “I think we learned that earthquakes do not occur in isolation," said Dr. Schwartz. "They usually occur in a fault system that is made of a lot of adjacent segments of faults.”Scientists also have a better understanding of how earthquakes happen. Researchers are using high precision GPS stations over the San Andreas Fault. Dr. Schwartz says that technology barely existed during Loma Prieta. Now it's a game changer.“It kind of shows that we have learned some new basic things that will help us to revise and eventually lead us into much better capability of being able to help us predict closer or specifically when earthquakes will happen,” said Schwartz. So when could “the big one” happen? “The estimate is still by 2032,” said Dr. Schwartz. “I think there is something like a 65 percent chance there will be a sizable earthquake in the Bay Area, so that still holds. We don't know where and we don't know exactly when.”That's why Dr. Schwartz says it's important to remember Loma Prieta and the lessons learned from that devastating earthquake. “Earthquakes cannot give us a couple of days warning but be prepared now. Especially when you hear the probabilities that within the next 25 years there is a high likelihood. So be prepared.”