Scotland’s election result is the single factor most likely to shape the next government. No combination of parties would have the required numbers without the votes of the SNP

There is one thing uniting the restless voters of the British Isles ahead of the general election: 77% are dissatisfied with the state of UK democracy, according to research published by the University of Edinburgh this week, and there is little variation between the different parts of the country. But that is where the political similarities between Scotland and the rest of the country end.

When the people of Scotland voted decisively against independence in September 2014 many thought questions about secession would be put to rest for a generation. But since that day, membership of the SNP has risen four-fold to around 100,000 – about one in 50 adults in Scotland are now members of the party. These are mass membership levels not seen in Britain since the 1950s.

However, it would be simplistic to reduce what is happening in Scotland today to a debate in favour of, or against, independence. Last year’s referendum was instead the catalyst for a far deeper ideological and generational shift.



Scotland was already partying. It’s just that nobody noticed

In the 2011 Scottish parliamentary elections, the SNP secured Holyrood’s first ever majority and the biggest victory margin in the nation’s political history. Labour, meanwhile, endured its worst election result in Scotland for 80 years.

There has consistently been something of a tartan curtain between the representatives Scots choose to elect to Edinburgh and those they send to London. In 2010’s general election, just a year before its calamitous Holyrood result, Labour even increased its vote share on 2005.

This changed with the independence referendum. The curtains came down. If you plot today’s polls on a map they look increasingly like that 2011 result.

In May’s election Labour risks paying the price for its laxness

All the polls place Ed Miliband’s party on a one-way path to losing nearly all its 41 Scottish seats, and the SNP on course to winning most of the 59 seats north of the border.

The scale and nature of such a result should draw parallels with the collapse of the Conservatives across Britain in 1997.

The election outcome in Scotland remains the single factor most likely to shape the composition of the next government. As things stand, no combination of parties – with the exception of an unlikely Labour-Tory grand coalition – would have the numbers needed to form a stable government without the votes of the SNP.

So much so that the Financial Times reported last week (£) that Scotland is becoming the focal point of the Conservatives chief election strategist Lynton Crosby’s “wedge strategy”, an approach aimed at focusing on a divisive issue - and that the Tories’ attacks on a possible Labour-SNP post-election deal will intensify in the coming weeks.

Jim Murphy was elected leader of Scottish Labour just before Christmas. Ten weeks later, and not much has changed: in YouGov’s polling Labour was on 27% immediately after the independence referendum and is on exactly the same level of support in the polling company’s latest figures.

Consider these other numbers:

First, among Labour’s 2010 voters, 37% say Ed Miliband is doing a good job as party leader, 62% think well of the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon.



Second, since the referendum, 7% of those who voted no have gone to the SNP. On the nationalist side the vote appears more united, while on the pro-union side it is divided and fragmented: 44% would vote Labour, 36% Conservative, and 7% Lib Dem.

The implication here is that although the Tories’ call for Labour to rule out any form of deal (not just a formal coalition, which both Miliband and Sturgeon have excluded as an option) with the SNP may work for short-term electoral purposes, there is the risk that by disenfranchising Scottish MPs at Westminster Cameron’s wedge isn’t just being driven through Labour but into the longer term future of the Union.

Third, and crucially, only 15% of SNP voters say Miliband would be better for Scotland than David Cameron: you can see why the “vote SNP, get Tory” mantra isn’t sticking. An Ipsos Mori poll released earlier this year found the Labour leader to be less popular in Scotland than Cameron: just 27% said they were satisfied with the prime minister, but even less (21%) were happy with Miliband.

Democratic shift

What is happening in Scotland, just like what hit the Conservatives back in the mid-1990s, should not be cast aside as volatility between elections. The SNP’s optimistic tone on issues such as immigration is particularly popular with younger voters, and in remarkably stark contrast to the stance most parties south of the border have taken on these same matters.

The University of Edinburgh research found Scotland’s electorate to be a lot more engaged than voters in England and Wales across all age groups and all levels of educational attainment. When asked how certain they were about voting in May’s election, 76% of Scots chose point 10 on an 11-point scale compared to 63% in England and 64% in Wales. The differences are especially acute among younger voters: 65% of those aged 18-19, and 57% of 20-24-year-olds said they were certain to vote compared to 34% and 38% respectively in England.

However, Scotland is home to some of the constituencies with the lowest turnout in the United Kingdom. Saying you are certain to vote is one thing, actually turning up to vote is another.

The independence referendum should act as a cautious reminder to take highly optimistic turnout expectations with a pinch of salt. Polls last year were anticipating turnout to be around 95%, 10 points higher than it eventually was - but make no mistake: if the SNP does not win 45-50 seats in May it will most probably not be because of a swing back to Labour.



Data around political action also reveals significant contrasts between Scotland and England. Among Scots aged 18-19, seven in 10 claim to have taken part in political action – such as signing a petition, writing to an MP or taking part in a demonstration – compared to less than one in two in England. The gap is also wide in the 20-24 and 25-44 age groups. In Scotland the figures are 54% and 60% respectively, in England they’re 41% and 48%.

All these numbers clearly show that on the majority of Scotland’s voters, and on younger people in particular, the effect of the referendum has gone beyond voting on the day.

There are two lessons for the UK’s two main parties in Scotland’s recent political history

The first is for the Labour party. It took the Tories more than a decade to recover and rid itself of the aura of toxicity that engulfed the party 20 years ago. Following the 2011 Scottish parliamentary elections, Milband said Labour had to “reassess” its policies and position in Scotland – he should probably start that reassessment soon.

The second is for the Tories. When a nation is divided along formidable identity-defining lines – such as its attitude towards migrants – those divisions don’t always go away at the cast of a ballot.

Politics is a short-term game, and there are less than 50 days to a general election, but politicians should already be thinking about the effects on the next one.

