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This in from Toronto sports commentator Damien Cox @DamoSpin: “Fans are embracing McDavid. We all see his brillance. Special player, special kid. But none of that has anything to do with the Hart.”

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And thecounter argumentfrom TSN’s Frank Seravalli: “What was shaping up to be the most wide-open Hart Trophy race in decades has seemingly morphed into a two-man battle to the finish: Nathan MacKinnon versus Connor McDavid. Call it the McHart Trophy race. Granted, some voters will dismiss McDavid’s candidacy out of hand since his Oilers have long been out of the Stanley Cup playoff chase. That would seem to be punishing McDavid through no fault of his own – the Oilers got in last year and his season is better this year.”

My take

It’s uncommon for a player to win the Hart Trophy if his team doesn’t make the playoffs, but it’s happened four times in NHL history, most recently by Mario Lemieux in 1987-88. Other Hart Trophy winners off non-playoff teams have been centre Andy Bathgate of the New York Rangers in 1958-59, goalie Al Rollins of the Chicago Blackhawks in 1953-54 and Tommy Anderson of the New York Americans in 1941-42. Lemieux led the league in scoring, while Bathgate was third. Both Lemieux’s Penguins and Bathgate’s Rangers were close to making the playoffs. Rollins was on a truly awful Chicago Blackhawks team, that had just 12 wins in 70 games. The only way for McDavid to win? He must continue to increase his lead in the NHL scoring race. He now leads Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Lightning 99 points to 95 points. This comes after McDavid was 12 points back of Kucherov on January 12. McDavid also has 24 goals in his last 27 games. He’s now entered that Wayne Gretzky phase of his career where he’s shooting, shooting, shooting and it’s paying off big time. If he can also close in on Alex Ovechkin, who leads the NHL with 44 goals, that will do wonders for McDavid’s MVP cause. McDavid has 39 goals. McDavid has been on fire he was put on a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He has 18 points in 9 games. Now it’s a big “if” as to whether McDavid can continue that pace, but if he gets 12 more points in his final 6 games, he’ll finish with 111 points, and about a ten per cent gap over this nearest competitor. Of course, McDavid could cool off and another player could get hotter. It’s only if it becomes abundantly clear that McDavid is in one class this year and all other top attackers are in another class that McDavid can win the Hart. If enough voters are to be swayed, it must come to be seen as foolish to downplay his accomplishments this year. In this regard, it’s worth noting that NHL voters will make public their votes this year, so if someone does leave McDavid off their list, or puts him way, way down their list, they’ll have to defend their choice and their reputation. That might change the voting dynamic somewhat. Transparency breeds accountability. As an Oilers fan I found it refreshing to hear Seravalli’s take on McDavid. I had thought this wasn’t going to happen, due to the Oil’s crap season. But Servalli is a plugged-in NHL insider, so I assume he’s not just speaking for himself, that he’s hearing some real buzz about McDavid as an MVP candidate. It’s also the case that the amazing Nate MacKinnon could have a fantastic year, but his Colorado Avalanche could also miss the playoffs. McDavid, like all great NHLers, faces the toughest competition the league has game in, game out. The fact that he does so well but the rest of his team doesn’t do so well should not lessen his value as a player. In fact, it could be argued that without McDavid, the Oilers would be bottom of the league, instead of getting close to a point per game as a team, 74 points in 76 games. I don’t discount the notion that a player leading his team to success should be given some weight in MVP vote. The questions are: How much weight do you give it? Is it enough to eliminate some top candidates if they fail to lead their team to playoffs in a 31-team league? Why not then also eliminate players who don’t lead teams to the very top of standings? The same logic would apply. So what is the magic cut-off here? For me, team success in the context of this vote might be seen as a tie breaker when two players are very, very close, but should not eliminate a player like McDavid from contention. There are other players who surely deserve MVP consideration this year, with MacKinnon at the top of that list. But I can’t see how McDavid should not be near the top of most lists, if not at the top.

P.S. This is from @FakeOilersGM twitter account: “Traditionalists be damned. Missing the playoffs should NOT disqualify you from winning the GM of the Year award.”

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