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The Tell

Stock-market volatility could return in a big way in January: Goldman Sachs

Health-care stocks could see particular volatility

The U.S. stock market wasn’t just unusually quiet in 2017, it was historically quiet, with basically no volatility or pullbacks, and major indexes shrugging off all manner of headwinds as they rose to a record number of records. However, the calm of the market may soon be coming to an end.

That view comes courtesy of Goldman Sachs, which noted that January is by far the most common month of the year for companies to preannounce their quarterly results or provide insight into what their full year could look like. “This year, with tax reform adding an additional layer of uncertainty to earnings, these updates could be even more stock moving,” the investment bank wrote to clients.

Nearly a quarter of all earnings updates—outside of the guidances provided in a company’s quarterly report—come in the month of January, twice the percent that have come out in October, the month with the second-highest number of preannouncements. Specifically, the second week of the new year has historically seen a heavy number of updates from management teams.

One of the reasons January is so popular is because of a number of major industry conferences occur in the month, including “ICR for retail stocks, CES for consumer electronics, Detroit Auto Show, and others,” Goldman wrote. In addition, a number of retail stocks tend to discuss their holiday sales trends in January, “either as part of a scheduled update, or as an unplanned announcement.”

There are a number of health care conferences, which could mean heightened volatility in health-care stocks in particular; more than 60% of preannouncements came from the health care and discretionary sectors, per Goldman’s data.

“While January is the most popular time of year for companies to preannounce results, just 4% of the S&P 500 SPX+1.6% has preannounced in January over the past seven years,” Goldman Sachs wrote. However, 12% of the components of the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF XLV+1.61% —the largest exchange-traded fund to track the sector—preannounced in the month over the past seven years. For the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB+2.13% , the rate was 16%.

The investment bank added that the average health care stock saw a 7.4% move (including both directions) following such an announcement. This is 1.5 times the median move seen after reporting results over the past eight quarters. Despite that, Goldman said the options market wasn’t pricing in moves of these magnitudes, suggesting many traders think the calm market of 2017 could continue.

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