Advertisement WMUR poll: Senate race still a virtual tie, but Hassan now has edge It’s Hassan 45 percent, Ayotte 42 percent in bitter, nationally-watched battle Share Shares Copy Link Copy

New Hampshire’s increasingly bitter battle for the U.S. Senate seat continues to be a dead heat, but for the first time, a WMUR Granite State Poll shows Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan slightly ahead of Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte.The latest poll, released Wednesday evening, shows Hassan with the support of 45 percent of likely Granite State voters, to 42 percent for Ayotte, with 3 percent favoring someone else and 11 percent undecided. That’s within the poll’s margin of error, but also reflects a slight tilt in the race toward Hassan over the past five months.The University of New Hampshire Survey Center polled 532 Granite State adults from July 9-18, including 469 likely general election voters. The margins of error for the poll are 4.2 percentage points for the larger sample of adults and 4.5 percentage points among likely voters.View the poll results here.The survey center said the sample includes 45 percent registered undeclared voters, 27 percent registered Republicans and registered 29 percent Democrats. Separately, 45 percent of those polled identify themselves as Democrats, 41 percent consider themselves Republicans and 14 percent view themselves as independents, according to the survey center.WMUR Granite State Polls have shown a tight race between Hassan and Ayotte since the first poll of the race was conducted in July 2015. At that time, Ayotte led 45 percent to 43 percent.Ayotte increased her lead to 47 percent to 41 percent in July 2015. In October 2015, Ayotte again led by 45 percent to 43 percent. In February, Ayotte led 45 percent to 41 percent, and in April, Hassan pulled to a single percentage point deficit – with Ayotte leading 43 percent to 42 percent.In the new poll, Ayotte is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent of New Hampshire adults, while 7 percent are neutral and 11 percent did not know enough about Ayotte to say. Her net favorability rating of plus 2 percent is the lowest it has been since she began running for her first term in 2009.In April, Ayotte was viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent, while in February, she was viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent. In October, Ayotte was viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 28 percent, while a year ago, in July 2015, she was viewed favorably by 48 percent and unfavorably by 25 percent for a net favorability rating of plus 23 percent.Ayotte’s favorable/unfavorable rating dropped between February and April, after she agreed with many of her fellow Senate Republicans that the Senate should not hold confirmation hearings and vote on a nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court until after the November election. The April WMUR Granite State Poll found that her position was at odds with the view of 60 percent of likely New Hampshire voters.Ayotte also has been on the receiving end of Democratic attacks on her position against universal background checks for gun dealers. She has also distanced herself from GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, but at the same time has said she expects to vote for him – a point that Democrats have tried to exploit.Hassan has also seen her favorability rating decline during the past several months, as she has taken heat from Republicans for being out of state on political travel for 50 days since February. Despite that decline, she is still viewed more favorably than Ayotte.Currently, 48 percent of those polled view the governor favorably -- her lowest rating since February 2013 – and 35 percent view her unfavorably, while 6 percent are neutral and 11 percent said they did not know.In April, 49 percent viewed Hassan favorably and 33 percent viewed her unfavorably, while in February, 50 percent viewed her favorably and 30 percent viewed her unfavorably.In May 2015, Hassan was viewed favorably by 58 percent and unfavorably by 22 percent, for a net favorability rating of plus 36 percent.Her current plus 13 percent net favorability rating is lower than it has been at any time during her two terms as governor.Meanwhile, Ayotte’s Republican primary challenger, former state Sen. Jim Rubens, is unknown to most Granite Staters. The poll shows that Rubens is viewed favorably by 14 percent and unfavorably by 15 percent of likely voters, while 9 percent are neutral. But 62 percent of likely voters do not know enough about Rubens to given an opinion.Rubens trails Hassan in a hypothetical matchup, 48 percent to 30 percent, with 6 percent neutral and 16 percent undecided. The poll did not pit Rubens against Ayotte in a primary matchup.The survey center found that despite the close matchup between Ayotte and Hassan, the vast majority of likely voters – 69 percent -- have yet to make a definite decision on who they will vote for in November. Only 20 percent of likely voters say they have definitely decided, while 11 percent are leaning toward a candidate.Poll director Andrew Smith explained that in the so-called “horse race” question, likely voters are asked who they would support if the election were today. The percentages for the candidates include those who are leaning toward supporting each candidate, even though they may not have made a final, definite decision on who they will vote for on Nov. 8.As a result, 69 percent of likely voters have not made a final decision about who they will support on Election Day, while 11 percent of likely voters could not say who they would vote for if the election were held today.The Hassan-Ayotte shows each candidate with the strong support of members of her own party. Ayotte leads among Republicans 77 percent to 9 percent, while Hassan leads among Democrats, 84 percent to 6 percent.Ayotte, despite trailing by a small margin overall, has a substantial 50 percent to 26 percent edge among independents.The poll shows a wide gender split, with Hassan leading among women, 49 percent to 36 percent, and Ayotte leading among men, 48 percent to 40 percent. The polling sample was 52 percent women and 48 percent men.Ayotte leads 79 percent to 9 percent among self-described conservatives, while Hassan leads 85 percent to 9 percent among self-described liberals. Self-described moderates favor Hassan, 45 percent to 35 percent.Hassan holds large leads over Ayotte among in the 18-34 age group – 58 percent to 27 percent. The governor also leads among those 65 and over – 52 percent to 42 percent. Ayotte leads 49 percent to 35 percent among those 50 to 64, while there is a virtual tie among those 35 to 49, with Hassan leading 44 percent for 42 percent.Geographically, Hassan leads in all regions of the state, with the exception of the central/Lakes Region, where Ayotte is substantially ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent.The survey center also gauged Granite Staters’ views of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who won re-election in 2014, finding that 50 percent view her favorably and 33 percent view her unfavorably.