(CNN) Politics is about wins and losses. By that measure, Republicans appear to have had a good night on Tuesday, with state Sen. Troy Balderson (R) leading Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D) by just under 2,000 votes with 99% of precincts reporting in the special election in Ohio's 12th District.

But keeping score in politics -- especially in special elections by simply tallying up wins and losses -- can miss the point. And this is one of those moments.

Yes, Balderson appears to have won. Which means he will likely hold the seat for the handful of months that remain in this Congress. But the underlying dynamics of the district and the race should concern every smart Republican looking at the November playing field and assessing the GOP's chances of holding onto its 23-seat House majority.

Consider that the 12th district is not, by any traditional measure, a toss-up district. Taking in the northern and eastern suburbs of Columbus -- and stretching to more rural areas further east -- it has been held by a Republican member of Congress continuously for the past three decades. In 2012, even while losing the state to President Barack Obama, Mitt Romney won the 12th by 10 points. Four years later, Donald Trump carried it by 11 points.

Based on those numbers, this is not a seat that should be at all competitive -- even in a special election -- if the national playing field was flat-ish. Of course, we know it's not -- based on lots and lots of other results this year. The playing field -- as it so often is in a midterm election with one party in control of all the levers of power in Washington -- is clearly tilted toward Democrats, and will be this November. The question that needs to come into better focus is how tilted.

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