This article has been co-authored with Samer, a Syrian journalist from Idlib.

Since December 15, Russian and Syrian warplanes have re-escalated their bombing campaign in the province of Idlib. While the air strikes have targeted the towns of Maarat al-Numan and Saraqib in particular, Syrian government forces and affiliated militias have launched a ground offensive in Idlib’s southern countryside. The government forces are pushing towards the M5 highway, which connects southern Syria with the city of Aleppo. The re-opening of the M5 highway as well as the M4, which connects eastern Syria with the western coast, was part of the Sochi agreement that Russia and Turkey signed in September 2018. The Russian government argues that Turkey didn’t clear the area from what it calls terrorists, namely Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other extremist groups that have been excluded from the negotiation process.

More than 1,000 civilians have been killed and 600,000 more have fled the fighting since April when government forces seized areas further south, including the city of Khan Sheikhoun. Since mid-December, more than 200,000 people, many of them already Internally Displaced (IDPs), fled towards the Syrian-Turkish border.

Maarat al-Numan, once a hotspot of protests against both the Syrian government and HTS, has been under such intense bombardment that all of the 70,000 inhabitants had to flee.

“The shelling is insane,“ said Mohammed, a data analyst who left the town with his family, in a conversation via WhatsApp. “On a single day, not only 40 air strikes but also more than 1,000 ground to ground missiles and artillery shells hit the town. Most of the villages and towns of Idlib’s eastern countryside are exposed to dozens of raids on a daily basis. When we tried to leave, we saw how warplanes systematically targeted the convoys of fleeing civilian,“ he said.

More than 35 mosques and schools have been destroyed within two weeks, according to the data analyst. Since the air strikes also targeted three remaining medical facilities, such as the Maysar Al-Hamdo hospital near Maarat al-Numan, and other vital infrastructure like the Abu Rateb Bakery in Ma’ar Shoreen, people ultimately had no chance but trying to escape.

Source: Liveumap.com

According to logs compiled by a network of local journalists, a minimum of 68 civilians, including 12 children, has been killed between December 15 and 21 alone. Another 108 have been injured. During this time, the logs add up to 405 confirmed air strikes — 169 by Russian warplanes, 105 by government warplanes and 131 by government helicopters. The logs are a group effort of journalists and activists from all over Idlib who have gathered in a group on WhatsApp. On a daily basis, the members post the times and places of airstrikes, artillery shelling and the names of those killed and wounded. One of the members provided the logs for further analysis.

Those who reach the Syrian-Turkish border find themselves in an overcrowded area that lacks the capabilities to shelter the tens of thousands of IDPs that arrive every day. Ahmed, a young man from Idlib’s northern countryside who recently arrived at the border, described the local’s efforts to deal with the latest influx in a WhatsApp call.

“We watch the convoys of the displaced coming all day long. There are too many IDPs for the aid organizations. The room in homes and camps is simply not enough. Many are homeless and sleep in the open,’’ he said. “There are initiatives from locals who try to help. Villages, for example, welcome the displaced in mosques and schools“.

Meanwhile, the Turkish government keeps the border closed. “People are angry because Turkey was supposed to guarantee a ceasefire,“ said Jamal, a journalist from Idlib, in a Skype conversation. “The world sees the crimes of Russia and the regime but still the displaced are trapped and have no way out,“ he continued.

The armed factions in Idlib, a mixture of groups affiliated with the SNA, hardline Islamists and jihadists, neither have the capabilities nor the necessary Turkish backing to repel the Syrian government’s offensive. Yet, a surrender based on the model of the so-called reconciliations that brought opposition-held territory formally back under government control remains unpopular.

"We do not support surrender and living under regime rule. We have seen what happened to civilians in Daraa and Ghouta after the reconciliations. We want a free and democratic system and not the Assad regime that does not respect human rights and abuses detainees. So we are more prepared to live under bombing than to live at the mercy of the regime,“ explained Maher, a civilian from Aleppo who fled to southern Idlib and has now been displaced again in a conversation via WhatsApp.

Recently, reports have emerged that the Turkish government is planning to deploy elements of the SNA to Libya to support the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. At a time when the SNA appears to be unable to confront the advancing Syrian government troops and in light of its deployment to northeastern Syria, where it’s fighting the People’s Protection Units (YPG) on Turkey’s behalf, some claim that the opposition’s armed factions have ultimately been reduced to a mercenary force answering to the Turkish government.

“This is a blow for the revolution,“ said Omar, a Syrian activist from Damascus in a private message conversation on Twitter.

Referring to the Fatemiyoun Division, a militia mainly composed of Afghans from the Hazara ethnic group that operates under Iranian command, he said: “They falsely use the flag of the Syrian revolution. We Syrians are the new Hazara. We are mercenaries fighting not for our borders but sent abroad to conquer foreign land“.

Khadiga, also a Syrian activist, agreed but emphasized the need not to jump to conclusions that could discredit the revolutionary movement as a whole: “Our own division made us an easy prey for outsiders, but I think that the number of Syrians going to Libya won’t be big and sadly the fuss around the issue will be bigger than the scale on the ground“.

Indeed, the majority of SNA commanders have refused Turkey’s request to deploy troops for a Turkish-led mission in Libya. Those who accepted are reportedly Turkmen-majority groups, including the Sultan Murad Division, which has maintained close ties with the Turkish government for years. The issue remains murky, especially regarding the potential role of Syrians in the Libyan conflict. An opposition outlet quoted sources claiming that 250 Syrians affiliated with the SNA would be deployed to Libya as logisticians, military advisers and translators instead of taking direct part in hostilities.

However, footage showing a small group of fighters from the Mu'tasim Division, an opposition faction that already participated in Turkey’s Euphrates Shield operation in 2016 and is part of the SNA, has been geolocated south of Tripolis. In the short video, the fighters claim to have captured a position from forces of Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar.

Overall, the heated discussion about the existing reports reflects both the disappointment of Syrians with the state of the revolutionary movement and anger about Turkey taking advantage.

Faced with heavy rainfalls and dropping temperatures, Syrians in Idlib are not only exposed to the Syrian government’s and Russia’s scorched-earth campaign, but also to worsening weather conditions.

Meanwhile, the international community remains paralyzed. On December 20, Russia vetoed a draft for a resolution at the UN Security Council that would have allowed cross-border aid to continue into the war-torn country for 12 months. For the moment, it is not clear whether Russia is ultimately going to cut-off Idlib from the UN’s vital aid or exploit the pressure to eliminate another designated UN entry point that allows the flow of UN aid from Iraq to territory controlled by U.S. troops in the northeast of Syria.

Either way, the 3 million Syrians in Idlib who lack a powerful lobby are once again helpless targets.

© Ahval English

The views expressed in this column are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Ahval.