11. Strengths and limitations

Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) data

The data from wave 1 of the new fortnightly Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) are based on a final response rate of 25.9% and cover the period 9 March to 22 March 2020, across all business sectors covered by the Monthly Business Survey (including retail sales index and construction).

Real estate services, other services, and mining and quarrying data have been removed from the industry breakdown because of the low numbers of responses but these sectors are included in the industry totals.

The survey is voluntary and the data are businesses’ qualitative responses, which should be treated with caution as results reflect the characteristics of those who responded and not necessarily the wider business population.

The questions used in the survey ask respondents to categorise where turnover, workforce, prices or trade are “usual” for the period. Where these are not, they are asked to categorise if the changes are because of the coronavirus or otherwise.

The survey is designed to give an indication of the impact of the coronavirus on businesses and a timelier estimate than other surveys. These should not be used in place of official statistics for such estimates, but instead they are included to support more timely information on the UK economy.

Online price change for high-demand products (HDP)

It is not appropriate to compare these movements with the headline Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), which is produced using different methods, data and quality thresholds, and incorporates a broader range of goods and services, such as housing.

There are a number of caveats that should be applied to the data sources and methods used to produce these experimental price indices.

No comparable replacement or quality adjustments have been applied, which may lead to downward bias in the indices.

Because of the nature of web-scraped data, there are no expenditure weights available at the product level. Therefore, there is no accounting for consumer substitution within these items. As we follow the same unique product over time, any substitution towards cheaper or more expensive items will not have an impact on the index, unless these types of products follow a different price change trend.

For retailers that have a clear label indicating that a product is out of stock, we have removed those products from the analysis. However, other retailers may not have a clear indication of this, so there may be products currently out of stock that have still been included.

Limited sample size and daily changes in product availability may result in volatility at the item level.

OPN Survey – social impact of coronavirus (COVID-19)

The main strengths of the Opinions and Lifestyle (OPN) Survey include:

it allows for quick turnaround of data

it meets data needs: the questionnaire is developed with customer consultation and design expertise is applied in the development stages

robust methods are adopted for the survey’s sampling and weighting strategies to limit the impact of bias

it is accurate and reliable; the questionnaire is rigorously tested and the data are quality assured

other strengths can be found in the Quality and Methodology Information.

The main limitations of the OPN include:

the sample size is relatively small: 2,010 individuals per week with fewer completed interviews, meaning that detailed analyses for subnational geographies and other sub-groups are not possible

the mode is online only so the sample may be subject to more bias than usual

Ongoing publication of coronavirus (COVID-19) related data

We will be publishing this faster indicator bulletin on a weekly basis during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This is to ensure we are meeting user needs for more timely data. We will be adding new data and experimental indicators as and when data become available each week.

This publication will include regular updated data from the new fortnightly survey, BICS, online prices for HDPs and weekly indicators from the OPN survey on social impact of the coronavirus.