Some journalists and gamers use hyperbole and exaggeration to explain the case with their hype for upcoming press conferences, based off of previous endeavors, but last year, Sony was the exception. We had gaming megatons like Shenmue 3, Final Fantasy 7 Remake, and the long-awaited Last Guardian announced, along with New IP reveals such as Dreams, Horizon: Zero Dawn, and lengthy looks at indies like No Man’s Sky and Devolver Digital titles. It was a definite step up from a 2014 conference that mostly focused on third party titles and unimportant console add-ons (We’re talking about you Playstation TV) and a gargantuan leap into what Sony originally promised with their first Playstation 4 announcement conference.

We’ve also sorted the list into three categories, Likely, Somewhat Likely, and Unlikely, based off of sources and probable speculation.

This list only includes titles that have been confirmed to Playstation systems. Third party non-exclusive games with Sony licensing deals will be on a separate list. (Call of Duty Infinite Warfare for example)

Likely:

Horizon Zero Dawn:

Chance of Arriving: 100/100

Expected Run-Time: 10–15 minutes

Reasoning: Although we’ve received a new trailer and 2017 release date, the game was one of the first billboards to appear outside the E3 convention center, so it would be pretty stupid not to show off any of the game with advertising as big as that. Plus, Uncharted 4 was shown off last year, even when it was already delayed to the next year. Get ready for a gameplay demo this time!

The Last Guardian:

Chance of Arriving: 100/100

Expected Run-Time: 10–15 minutes

Reasoning: Even with the far too lengthy production time, The Last Guardian hasn’t been shown off since last show because Sony doesn’t want to reveal too much of the game. But with it being their biggest AAA title for 2016 with Horizon’s delay, it wouldn’t make sense not to show it off.

No Man’s Sky:

Chance of Arriving: 90/100

Expected Run-Time: 5–10 minutes

Reasoning: Sony could have done some aggressive marketing after E3 to get the word out for a June release date, the tides have changed after the game’s August delay. There’s still a chance it could not appear since it’s not in the list of playable games, but we’re unsure the scope Sony means by in that list. Either way, we’ll likely get a shorter and off the beaten path look at the game, with so many of the demoes being composed of the same thing. Something like the game’s economy would be a nice fit.

Dreams:

Chance of Arriving: 90/100

Expected Run-Time: 10–15 minutes

Reasoning: Even according to the usually unreliable VGchartz, Little Big Planet 3 was the worst selling main game in the series, which is a pretty good sign for Sony to do something new with the studio behind the property itself. Plus, we didn’t get a great look at Dreams during last years conference, so the added press is always a good thing.

Statik:

Chance of Arriving: 90/100

Expected Run-Time: 5–10 minutes

Reasoning: This is one of the higher points of pure speculation, but Tarsier (the studio behind LittleBigPlanet for the Vita) is currently makking a new VR game called Statik. Not much is known so far, but we presume it to be part of the PSVR lineup Sony will showcase this year.

Unannounced God of War title/ Next Sony Santa Monica Game:

Chance of Arriving: 90/100

Expected Run-Time: 10 minutes

Reasoning: Concept art was leaked just a couple months ago, and industry insiders have gone ahead to state that the game will be at the biggest gaming event of the year. On top of this, a couple Sony Santa Monica developers led out hints and teases during Playstation Experience. Either way, get ready for some Norse goodness.

Detroit: Beyond Human:

Chance of Arriving: 90/100

Expected Run-Time: 10 minutes

Reasoning: Kinda Funny leaked the game’s E3 presence in a tweet, and there’s been rumors off a November 30th release date based off of a German retailer. We suspect Sony might go big with this one (Beyond Two Souls was their opener back in 2012) and if the prior leaks are really true with this one, it’s a necessity.

RIGS:

Chance of Arriving: 90/100

Expected Run-Time: 5–10 minutes

Reasoning: Arguably the flaghsip title for Playstation VR, we’ll likely get closure on whether this is a launch title for the system or simply a post launch hit. Either way, look forward to a lengthy gameplay demo to showcase the peripheral’s abilities.

Final Fantasy 7 Remake:

Chance of Arriving: 80/100

Expected Run-Time: 5–10 minutes

Reasoning: The game’s been a dream come true for many, but some side effects such as it’s episodic content will have to be revealed in some form for closure. We’ve had no leaks for this one, so at this point it’s really a chance for Sony to repeat their PSX grandure with some new details.

Gran Turismo Sport:

Chance of Arriving: 80/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: We’ve already gotten two pre-E3 gameplay trailers, but Sony will need to show more of the game’s VR compatibilities, as its roughly their biggest multiplatform title on the system, (unless No Man’s Sky gets the same sort of surprise announcement) And it’s also the first Gran Turismo title in three years, so it still has to make a splash after the dim sales of 6.

Uncharted 4 DLC:

Chance of Arriving: 80/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: Neil Druckmann promised the title would get some heavy post-story DLC after the success of The Last of Us: Left Behind, and Sony has clout with putting these post releases in the spotlight, with Infamous: First Light appearing at their E3 2014 show. It could get pushed to a Gamescom/ Paris Games Week announcement if Sony blows out all of their titles, but that’s less likely to happen.

Unannounced Sony Bend game (Dead Don’t Ride):

(Taken from lead concept artist, not official)

Chance of Arriving: 90/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: In addition to all the numerous leaks insider Shinobi602 has stated about this years presser, he also added that Sony Bend’s long awaited game will finally make an appearance. Having missed a near 10 Sony conferences, it would be stupid not to show it in it’s full glory here.

Let It Die:

Chance of Arriving: 75/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: We got a new story themed trailer after a long silence, but this another title that Sony needs to push if it’s coming out this year (which seems likely) Another added incentive is that it’s supposedly free to play, with an added companion app on smartphones, ideas that Sony have both pushed before.

Days Gone:

(Not official photo, more of what we assume the game to look like)

Chance of Arriving: 75/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: Sony applied a trademark for this one along with three other licenses, but the stigma around this one seems like it will make a showing. It’s got an indie-like title, and sounds walking simulator-ish to match Everybody’s Gone to the Rapture, which came out last year. That game wasn’t announced E3, but we aren’t discounting that Sony can’t advocate for the smaller stuff every once in a while.

Next Pixelopus Game:

Chance of Arriving: 75/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: Composed of college students who made Entwined, Pixelopus hasn’t shown anything in a long time. Any other company that’s put a studio dormant in this way might have conditioned them for outsourcing, but Sony doesn’t really behave in that manner. Our guess is that it’s another indie PSVR title.

Wild:

Chance of Arriving: 70/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: Another sizable title headed towards a 2016 release, Wild was commissioned in two Gamescom pressers, with an impressive scope and scale. Yet this isn’t the type of title that Sony would just throw out there, and we expect them to at least give it some mention at this years show.

Gravity Rush 2:

Chance of Arriving:70/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: While it is a niche title, Gravity Rush 2 is some good backup in case titles like Detroit: Beyond Human and The Last Guardian get delayed out of their supposed release windows. And if that isn’t the case, it’s a notch higher than the montage fare, so we’ll likely get some look at it, albeit short.

Drawn to Death:

Chance of Arriving: 70/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: Another free to play title in Sony’s catalogue, they’ll likely present this off if Let it Die is a no show. While there have been some betas and alphas, Sony would have to recognize that it’s unique premise gives it some appeal, which is what we hope to be the case.

Ace Combat 7:

Chance of Arriving: 70/100

Expected Run-Time: 10 minutes

Reasoning: Supposedly an exclusive Playstation VR and 4 title, Ace Combat 7 hasn’t gotten much of anything besides a quick CG teaser (and this is counting press time!) but if Sony continues to push PS VR like we suspect they will, there’s no reason to think it won’t show up, unless they manage to place these spectacles in later TGS, Gamescom, and PSX shows, depending on their release.

Persona 5:

Chance of Arriving: 70/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: The title was delayed in a close timeframe between Horizon: Zero Dawn, but many have seen this one as the big mainstream break for JRPG’s, particularly due to it’s overwhelming hype. It’s really Sony’s decision to push it at this point, as they could do the same with other JRPG’s. (That definitely aren’t on the Vita)

Matterfall:

Chance of Arriving: 70/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: In what we predict to be the third current generation shooter in Housemarque’s library, we haven’t gotten much info on Matterfall. A similar situation happened with Alienation, but we hope Sony will reverse the power of low press for games like these.

Knack 2:

Chance of Arriving:70/100

Expected Run-Time: 10 minutes

Reasoning: Making the rumor waves after being placed on a Linkedin profile, Knack 2 seems like it’s more and more of a possibility due to confirmations by insiders. And while the first game was not received greatly, it managed to sell well enough, which may have been effect of the Playstation 4 launch hype. While we’re happy to see what they can improve, we’re not looking forward to the same tired adventure.

Unannounced Hideo Kojima Game:

Chance of Arriving:70/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: There’s been some confusion on whether or not the new Kojima screens have been in-game or renders of a mascot, but the ominous “I’ll keep coming” tag makes us certain that we’ll see it in some portion this year. Maybe without a title yes, but Kojima’s a willing man.

Abzu:

Chance of Arriving:70/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: We haven’t seen much of this title since it’s 2014 stage-time, but 505 has continuously showed the game to journalists over the past year. Previews don’t always get the word out (especially for a smaller title like this) and Sony may want to promote it more considering it’s made by some of the guys and gals who left thatgamecompany (known for Journey).

Somewhat Likely:

Ni No Kuni 2:

Chance of Arriving: 65/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: The first Ni No Kuni was a surprise hit for the late PS3 life cycle, and a sequel making the rounds last year was a megaton for those familiar with the series. However, whether it be indies or JRPG’s, Sony has to give their conference some diversity, meaning it might be left on the cutting board.

Until Dawn Rush of Blood:

Chance of Arriving: 65/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: It might not be the most established of franchises yet, but Supermassive is putting their VR resources into an Until Dawn themed, House of the Dead like spinoff. Reception even among previews has been mixed, so Sony could fix these qualms with a great demo. Plus, RIGS and this don’t necessarily compete as Rush of Blood is on rails, more suiting the VR experience.

Crash Bandicoot:

(Mock-up, not official image)

Chance of Arriving: 65/100

Expected Run-Time: 10 minutes

Reasoning: It’s more of a confirmation that we’ll see this orange mascot in Skylanders than anything else (thank a faulty Activision website for that) and the only other info we know is that an HD remake might be developed, but nothing beyond that. If it’s the more disappointing of news, it’ll be intriguing to see how Sony handles it.

Street Fighter 5 DLC:

Chance of Arriving: 65/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: Street Fighter 5 didn’t necessarily make the blast it was supposed to after being plagued with online issues and a lack of content, so Capcom can fix this with a reasonable pack of DLC. The downside is that this might not show up as EVO is also right around the corner, so we’ll wait and see for the results.

New Hot Shots Golf:

Chance of Arriving: 60/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: One of the bigger surprises to be shown off at last years Tokyo Game Show, this Hot Shots promises to be more than previous entries, with a harder extreme sports vibe. Even with those changes, it’s not the biggest title to show unless Sony is really heading in weak, which isn’t the case.

Hunger:

Chance of Arriving: 60/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: If Tarsier shows off Statik, then we really doubt this will make it’s true gameplay premiere. Because of that, we might just have to expect this title in one of Sony’s themed indie months (where they’ll also put stuff on sale) and nothing beyond that. Guess that’s the downside to having too much promise.

Shenmue III:

Chance of Arriving: 60/100

Expected Run-Time: 5–10 minutes

Reasoning: Not launching until at least December 2017, Shenmue III has been a long time coming, but likely won’t get shown. It’s still pretty early based off the Kickstarter footage we’ve seen and a mere $6–8 million won’t do wonders efficiency wise. Fans will likely get the game they wanted, but just a later peek of it.

The Tomorrow Children:

Chance of Arriving: 60/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: This is another title that’s been on the press and info backburner since it’s first reveal a couple of years back, and even with possible upcoming betas, it’s more of a smaller project for a studio that never got their proper attention with the PixelJunk series. As great as this game looks, Sony’s packed lineup likely won’t change matters.

Next Sucker Punch Game (Possibly Spider-Man):

Chance of Arriving: 60/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: The rumors that have come out of Sucker Punch haven’t exactly been reliable, with some turmoil lying with who it’s developed by. It could be Insomniac, or Beenox (which most see as the unluckier option) either way, it likely won’t be premiered unless it has something to do with Playstation VR, as a new Spider Man movie doesn’t come out till 2018.

What Remains of Edith Finch:

Chance of Arriving:55/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: Another indie announced some time ago, What Remains of Edith Finch could come back again if Days Gone isn’t the walking simulator we expect it to be. Either way, expect this indie and not bird themed game to launch later this year,m with or without an appearance.

King of Fighters XIV:

Chance of Arriving: 50/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: While there’s still a possibility this might show up, this game gets small showings at the insignificant Sony shows, and with a cast of 50, it’s unlikely they’ll be some mindblowing reveal. We’d be happy to be proven wrong, but it seems like this game will likely be resided to Atlus’s booth and not much else.

Dragon’s Dogma Online:

Chance of Arriving:50/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: This seems like it might be the Phantasy Star Online 2 for Capcom, as their are little to no signs of this appearing even with strong sales of a PC version. Plus, this another significantly small announcement that wouldn’t regularly appear at a show like this.

Wattam:

Chance of Arriving:50/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: Wattam looks friggin great, with it’s wacky humor and colorfulness presented in nearly every frame. But there’s been some mystery to whether it’s development has been continued, such as a trademark expiring. We hope this is a false alarm, but things like these are never good news.

Unlikely:

Kingdom Hearts 2.8

Chance of Arriving:45/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: We got a trailer and confirmation from insiders makes it pretty likely that we won’t see more of this game at any E3 conferences. If you are interested in the franchise, just catch a Square Enix livestream on Tuesday and you’ll be good to go.

Agent:

Chance of Arriving:40/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: While the trademark was renewed, Take Two has done this numerous times in the past. It’s completely possible that development has been redone after needs were put on GTA V, but the chance that Red Dead 3 is bubbling seems a lot higher.

The Last of Us 2:

Mock-up (not official image)

Chance of Arriving:40/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: It might be in development, but numerous insiders and leakers over at Neogaf and Twitter have promised that the game won’t make a peep. This might give more leeway for a new Crash Bandicoot by Naughty Dog, but it depends on their studio management to see where they are know, details that exactly haven’t been fed to us.

New Jak and Daxter:

Chance of Arriving:40/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: We have had concept art leaked, but this is likely from Naughty Dog’s failed effort to reboot the franchise that was revealed in a pre-Last of Us GameInformer interview. Plus, concept art like this is a common thing to be thrown around during early pre production, right before a game is finalized and heads to completion.

A Million Ways To Die:

Mockup (not official image)

Chance of Arriving:35/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: All we’ve gotten is a trademark application, but this sounds like a more fundamental survival horror on Playstation VR. However, it’s uncommon for titles of games to just come out without an a developer attached or some type of rumor, so it’s unlikely we’ll see this.

Playstation All Stars Battle Royale 2:

(Mock-up, not official)

Chance of Arriving: 30/100

Expected Run-Time: 10 minutes

Reasoning: While there has been leaked confirmation that the game is real, it seems development and licensing issues seems to be a root cause of it not being shown earlier. And, the last time this franchise was announced it was released in the same year, which doesn’t seem viable right now.

Rime:

Chance of Arriving:25/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: There’s been hullabaloo that the game was stealthily cancelled, (and a recent Gamestop partnership with the developers might prove this true) but we doubt there to be significant closure at this year’s presser. Tequila Works is busy with Deadlight ports, and has been mum on anything else.

Deep Down:

Chance of Arriving: 25/100

Expected Run-Time: 5 minutes

Reasoning: While initial amazement was shown at the Playstation 4 reveal, Deep Down has sputtered less and less information over the years, likely due to the creator being busy with Street Fighter 5 and it’s subsequent issues. It might make a comeback, but Capcom’s ambitious plans for the game don’t make the situation any better.

PS4K/PS4.5/Neo:

Chance of Arriving: 0/100

Expected Run-Time: N/A

Reasoning: While it’s existence has been confirmed, CEO Andrew House confirmed that it’ll be a no-show at this years conference. This is probably a smart move considering it would be hard for Sony to juggle this, Playstation VR, and the occasional megaton.

Sources:

1. Makuch, Eddie. “Massive E3 Poster for PS4-Exclusive Horizon: Zero Dawn Pops Up in LA.” GameSpot. CBS Interactive, 24 May 2016. Web. 08 June 2016.

2. Makuch, Eddie. “Last Guardian Footage Purposefully Being Held Back, Here’s Why.” GameSpot. CBS Interactive, 2 Nov. 2015. Web. 08 June 2016.

3. Parungo, Nico. “No Man’s Sky Skips E3 2016? — The Bitbag.” The Bitbag. The Bitbag, 07 June 2016. Web. 08 June 2016.

4. “New Details On Dreams Coming Soon As E3 2016 Draws Near.”PlayStation 4 Dreams. N.p., 24 Mar. 2016. Web. 08 June 2016.

5. Crossley, Rob. “God of War Studio Teases What’s Next.” GameSpot. CBS Interactive, `1 Dec. 2015. Web. 12 June 2016.

6. Scammel, Dave. “Yamauchi Wants Gran Turismo Sport to Be Fully Playable in PlayStation VR — Gran Turismo Sport for PS4 News.”VideoGamer.Com. CandyBanana, 20 May 2016. Web. 12 June 2016.

7. L, Stefan. “Gran Turismo 6 Sales Revealed To Be Just 2.37 Million.”TheSixthAxis. Krystal, 12 Oct. 2016. Web. 12 June 2016.

8. Tach, Dave. “Let It Die Sure Doesn’t Feel like a Free-to-play Game … Yet?”Polygon. Vox Media, 13 May 2016. Web. 12 June 2016.

9. Fogg, Brodie. “Naughty Dog Shoots down Jak and Daxter 4 after Concept Art Leaks.” Finder. Hive Empire, 26 Apr. 2016. Web. 12 June 2016.