Weekly game probabilities return for 2013. In this space, we will reveal the outcome probabilities for each week’s N.F.L. games while examining interesting aspects of game prediction and football analytics.

This Sunday, the 0-3 Giants visit the 3-0 Chiefs. On the basis of each team’s record, the game looks one-sided, but a closer look reveals a much more even matchup.

Both the Chiefs and the Giants have turnovers to thank and to blame for their records through Week 3. The Chiefs haven’t turned the ball over once this season. They haven’t even fumbled, much less lost a fumble. On defense, the Chiefs have intercepted 3.5 percent of opponent pass attempts, significantly higher than the league average of 2.5 percent.

The Giants are at the other end of the spectrum. Quarterback Eli Manning has been intercepted on an amazingly frequent 7.6 percent of his pass attempts. And the Giant defense has a below-average 1.7 percent interception rate.