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NEW DELHI: This month is set to be among India’s five driest months of June in the past 100 years, Met records reveal. Countrywide rains in June have so far been 35% below normal, and with just two days to go before the month ends, there’s little chance of the deficit being substantially dented.The all-India average weighted rainfall in June so far has been 97.9mm against a normal (till June 28) of 151.1mm. The month is likely to end with rainfall in the range of 106 to 112mm. Only in four years since 1920 has rainfall in June been less than this — 2009 (85.7mm), 2014 (95.4mm), 1926 (98.7mm) and 1923 (102mm).In both 2009 and 2014, the monsoon in June was under the shadow of an El Nino event, just as this year (although El Nino actually set in after the monsoon in 2014). During an El Nino, the east and central equatorial Pacific Ocean heats up abnormally, leading to changes in wind circulations that often adversely impact the Indian monsoon.This year, Met officials see the likely role of El Nino in the monsoon’s late onset and tardy progress. Although it has picked up slightly in the past week or so while covering a lot of ground very fast and bringing some rain in the drought-hit regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha, daily rainfall continues to be below normal.However, there’s could be some positive news around the corner. A low-pressure system is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal around Sunday (June 30), intensify into a depression and move inland into Odisha, bringing good rains in central and parts of northwest India in the first week of July.“We expect a good surge in monsoon after June 30. There’s high possibility of it advancing into fresh areas in central India, such as the remaining parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, and more areas in northwest India as well,” said K Sathi Devi, senior IMD official.The expected low-pressure system could provide a good start to the monsoon in July, a crucial month for sowing of the summer (kharif) crop and normally the wettest month of the monsoon season.A look at the 10 driest months of June in the past 100 years reveals an ominous trend. Four of these have come in nearly the past decade. These years are 2009, 2012, 2014 and the current year.The monsoon’s failure in June this year has added significantly to water stress in many parts of west and south India. In the past week itself, water levels in 91 major reservoirs in the country dropped from 17% of total capacity to 16%, as per the Central Water Commission’s update on Thursday.In the western region (Gujarat and Maharashtra ), much of which is reeling under major dry conditions, reservoirs are down to 9% of total capacity as compared with 13% last year and an average of 17% in the last 10 years. This means reservoirs currently are at nearly half (47%) of their normal levels at this time of the year.Similarly, major reservoirs in south India are at 10% of total capacity, 44% below their normal levels at this time of the year.