Doug Ford begins his unexpected last-minute campaign for mayor of Toronto in a competitive second place behind John Tory and well ahead of third-place Olivia Chow, a snap poll by Forum Research suggests.

The poll — conducted Friday night, partly before and partly after Ford made his emotional first speech as a candidate — had Tory at 41 per cent, Ford at 34 per cent, and Chow at 19 per cent. Three per cent said they didn’t know, 3 per cent said they would vote for somebody else.

Doug Ford registered to run on Friday afternoon after his brother, Mayor Rob Ford, withdrew from the race because of an abdominal tumour. Doug Ford delivered a sombre address surrounded by family in front of his mother's Etobicoke home just after 7 p.m.

He may have benefited from a sympathy bump: he had 36 per cent support after 7 p.m., 33 per cent before 7 p.m. The poll results should be treated with special caution given the day’s unusual circumstances and given that residents were sampled as relevant events were actively unfolding.

Still, the poll offers an early indication that Doug Ford is a legitimate contender. Rob Ford was also in second place before his withdrawal, but further back: he was 12 points behind Tory in each of the two previous polls, one by Forum and one by Nanos Research.

The election is Oct. 27. Doug Ford, a businessman and the councillor for Ward 2 (Etobicoke North), says he will begin campaigning next week.

The poll is undoubtedly encouraging for him: his approval rating, 42 per cent, was 12 points higher than it was in May. But the poll also suggests that he has the same limited support ceiling his brother did. He had the lowest approval of the three leading contenders: Chow’s was 47 per cent, Tory’s 66 per cent.

The poll suggests Doug Ford’s base is similar to Rob Ford’s. He was strongest with lower-income residents, men and suburbanites.

Of people who approved of Rob Ford, 80 per cent said they would vote for Doug Ford — “a very successful transference of political loyalty,” Forum said in its news release.

Doug Ford had 37 per cent support among men; Tory had 41 per cent, Chow 17 per cent. Among women, Doug Ford had 31 per cent; Tory again had 41 per cent, Chow 21 per cent. Tory appeared to seize a substantial number of female voters from Chow over the summer.

Doug Ford was the top choice of voters who make $20,000 or less (44 per cent, Tory 26, Chow 15) and between $20,000 and $40,000 (38 per cent, Tory 32, Chow 27). He was competitive with voters who make between $40,000 and $60,000 (39 per cent, Tory 40, Chow 16). Tory held a substantial lead with every income bracket higher than that.

Doug Ford was competitive in each geographic quadrant except for the East York/old Toronto region, where he had just 17 per cent, four points higher than Rob Ford’s figure in the last Forum poll. He led in Etobicoke-York, 39 per cent to Tory’s 35 per cent, and was in a statistical tie in Scarborough, with 39 per cent to Tory’s 41 per cent.

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Doug Ford significantly outperformed Rob Ford in North York: Rob Ford had 37 per cent there in the last Forum poll, Doug Ford 46 per cent in this poll. Rob Ford’s final Etobicoke-York figure was 29 per cent, 10 points lower than Doug Ford’s 39 per cent.

Friday’s interactive voice response automated telephone poll included 1,228 residents. The margin of error is three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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