The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center just released a major new longitudinal study of expected household formation and homeownership rates from 2010 to 2030.

The paper predicts that the homeownership rate will continue to decline through 2030 and that a major rental surge is upon us, a surge the United States is not truly prepared to meet.

Most concerning, they forecast the homeownership rate to drop to 61.3% by 2030.

For context, the homeownership rate in the first quarter of this year fell to 63.7%, the lowest since 1990, according to the U.S. Census.

The homeownership rate is the ratio of households that own to overall households — the remaining being rental households.

A blog written by the study authors highlights five key take-aways: