Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry is known for his uptempo offense. In a league that has grown faster and faster in recent years, the Pelicans ranked 2nd in pace, at nearly 104 possessions per 48 minutes. However, looking at the transitions stats from Cleaning The Glass, the Pelicans rank 14th in the frequency of possessions that occur in transition. These things seem at odds with each other. Cleaning the Glass defines a possession as transition by estimating whether or not the defense is set. From an answer by the site’s founder Ben Falk:

It’s based on how much time has passed from the event that ended the previous possession (with some somewhat complicated logic depending on what the previous event was)

Measuring by seconds after possession change is a more direct way to measure what we mean by pace. By that metric, the Pelicans rank as the 5th fastest team in the NBA, averaging 12 seconds between change of possession and shot in total. But, the previous event (how the previous opponent possession ended) is also an important factor, especially for the Pelicans.

Possessions that change on a defensive rebound or live ball turnover are considered live ball. Possessions that change on a made shot, dead ball turnover, violation, or period start are considered dead ball. And shots that come after an offensive rebound or timeout are excluded completely.

Using the idea of facing a set defense, a live ball possession change is necessary to be considered transition offense, where the Pelicans play at only a slightly above average pace. Their 21st ranked opponent FG% and 23rd ranked opponent TOV% also limit their chances at live ball change of possession.

We can look at the league average distribution of shots, by time after possession change and how the previous possession ended.

(This chart will be used throughout the article, the dots show the efficiency of shots that occur at that amount of time after possession change with the axis on the left. The bars represent the volume of shots that occur at this time with the axis on the right)

After Dead Ball Possession Change – NBA League Average

After Live Ball Possession Change – NBA League Average

In any case, the benefit of playing fast is clear as efficiency tends to degrade the longer you take to get a shot up.

If we overlay the Pelican’s distribution over the league average, you can see how much the Pelicans are pushing the tempo (compared to league average) after a dead ball change of possession, but not so much in live ball situations.

After Dead Ball Possession Change – Pelicans

After Live Ball Possession Change – Pelicans

There’s a clear benefit to getting shots at 10 seconds as opposed to 16 seconds into the possession after a dead ball possession change, but those possessions are still likely to come against a set defense.

With all that in mind, the Pelicans true “pace” is likely somewhere in between what the two metrics would suggest. Alvin Gentry was recently quoted saying he would be disappointed if the Pelicans didn’t lead the league in pace next year. I don’t think coach was specifically referring to any specific numerical metric, but I will be watching the number of transition opportunities they’re able to create more closely than simply the number of possessions in their game.

The Thunder were the fastest team in the NBA by seconds after possession change and were second in transition frequency; they also led in opponent TOV%. If the Pelicans are going to meet their coach’s expectations, they should look to follow the Thunder Model. Between Ball, Holiday, Ingram, and Williamson the Pelicans have much more size on the perimeter than last year, and with that the ability to be more aggressive and force turnovers.

All Possessions – Thunder