Reuters

Sharif starts to feel the fall-out

BOTH China and Pakistan have at different times been at war with India, Pakistan on three occasions and China once. So the neighbours took more than an academic interest in the five nuclear tests carried out by India this week. If, as some fear, Asia could become the setting for the world's first hot war between nuclear powers, how would the combatants fare?

China's first response to the apparent new threat from India was impressively measured. It was “seriously concerned”, said a foreign-ministry spokesman, Zhu Bangzao. After the second round of tests, however, China professed itself “deeply shocked” at India's “outrageous contempt” for the international determination to ban all nuclear testing. India's action would have “serious consequences” for peace and security in South Asia. What about the recent remark by India's defence minister, George Fernandes, that the main potential threat to India came from China, not Pakistan? “Ridiculous,” said China at the time, and this would appear to be its view now. Until now China has not seen India as a threat. In 1962 it walloped India in a short border war, using conventional weapons and, if it came to a nuclear duel, China could out-match anything that India might have put together. The problem of independence-minded Taiwan looms much larger for China than the fireworks of Rajasthan.

The Chinese do not like to be seen publicly telling other countries what to do. On nuclear matters in particular, China has defended its own tests, a total of 45, by pointing to more than 1,000 carried out in the past by the United States and more than 700 by the old Soviet Union.

There could be a bright side for China in all this. Everyone hopes that Pakistan will show restraint, and there is no one better positioned than China to influence or cajole the Pakistanis. According to some accounts, Pakistan's nuclear-bomb design is based on Chinese technology, although China denies it. China helped in a minor way to restrain North Korea's apparent nuclear ambitions, getting a good-conduct badge from the Americans. In both the Korean peninsula and the subcontinent's arms race, American and Chinese interests to some extent overlap.

On the other hand, China might be blamed if Pakistan pushed ahead with its nuclear plans, no matter what the Chinese say. As things stand this week, Pakistan is eager to build up a nuclear arsenal. The prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, faces tough criticism from the more belligerent of his countrymen, who last year condemned his decision to ease relations with India. Now they are keener than ever to proceed with what has come to be called the Islamic bomb. Since there is a Jewish bomb, a Hindu bomb, and a series of Christian bombs, they argue, there ought to be an Islamic one too—and this is the moment to build it. India would be blamed for stepping up the race. Pakistan's foreign minister, Gohar Ayub Khan, said this week that India was pushing his country to the limit.

Though there is little reliable information about Pakistan's nuclear capability, foreign experts are convinced that the country is poised to produce deployable weapons. Having covertly acquired technology from abroad, it is capable of producing weapons-grade material. In recent years, the government has stepped up its missile programme. The Ghauri missile, with a range of 1,500 kilometres (940 miles), was unveiled in April. It was named, appropriately, after a 13th-century Muslim prince who fought Hindu emperors. Next in line is expected to be the Ghaznavi, named after another Muslim hero.

A fourth war between India and Pakistan, this time using nuclear weapons, would be devastating for both countries. The material damage aside, the political fabric of the two countries might be destroyed. For Pakistan, even the cost of making a bomb would be a strain on the country's weak economy. America would block aid to Pakistan, as it has already done by announcing sanctions on India. As with India, this could result in programmes by the World Bank and the IMF being suspended. Although that might not affect India very much, this year Pakistan needs $4.5 billion-5 billion to meet its current-account deficit. The possible economic bomb is the only chance to deter the nuclear one.

Pakistanis are keeping a keen eye on how America responds to the Indian tests. Many hope that President Clinton will cancel his expected visit to India this year, and that America and other members of the UN Security Council will propose tougher sanctions against the Indians. Meanwhile, Mr Sharif is under growing pressure to go ahead and carry out Pakistan's own test, regardless of the human and economic costs. He needs time to come to his senses.