Other than the isolated bouts of severe weather over the last two months, Denver has come out relatively unscathed since mid-June. Today, that has the possibility to change with a renewed threat of severe thunderstorms in the Denver area.

Forecast-

Moist air is funneling into Colorado from the Gulf of Mexico and support strong thunderstorm development this afternoon. Storm development will initially take place where clouds have burned off and sunlight is allowed to reach the ground. Initial indications are that storm development will initiate and intensify between 4pm and 10pm (MDT). The Front Range mountains will be an area of focus for development before the storms move to the east/northeast this afternoon. These storms have the possibility to be more violent and damaging than the storms that we’ve seen over the area in the last week.

Threats-

Tornadoes are possible with this system although there is only a 5% chance of this happening. Conditions will be favorable for one or two weak to mid-strength tornadoes although this threat should stay to the east of the metro area. The most populated areas within the 5% tornado risk are Aurora, Thornton, Greeley, Parker, and Commerce City and can be seen on the map outlined in the brown/burgundy area. There is also a 2% chance for tornadoes surrounding the 5% chance. The areas impacted by this risk are Denver, Colorado Springs, Lakewood, Fort Collins, and Westminster.

Severe hail (>1″ and possibly >2″) is the most significant threat for the area this afternoon. Theareas shaded in yellow represent a 15% chance of hail greater than one inch while the hatched black areas represent a 10% threat of hail greater than two inches as well.

Severe wind (>60mph) is also a threat with these storms and has a 15% chance of occurring in the same region as the hail.

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