If you weren’t living under a rock this past year, you noticed everyone turned into some kind of wall-street trader lately.

Well I’m writing now to tell out loud what some understood, but not all.

Nobody really knows what’s happening and where we are going. We just have theories and daily trading is the equivalent of going to the casino.

Now, let me confess something, I also went mental multiple times and tried to go for short positions thinking I was a smart ass. The thing is, it eventually crashes.

In fact, after one year in, I realised the cryptosphere ups and downs are quite random ; it’s nothing like stocks which actually often vary for solid reasons, like their last product release is shit or they have a disappointing quarter results.

In the crypto world, the current coin price has actually nothing to do with its underneath value.

- Chinese proverb

I follow different feeds to regularly understand why it went a certain way, or just out of curiosity, and I found out 90% of the people have absolutely no clue what they are doing or what they are talking about, we could even categorise most investors easily.

The overly emotional boy

This guy is the first to verbally react to anything happening. You’ve certainly met him, he’s usually screaming something like

+1% today, fasten your seatbelt we are going to the fucking moon !

He’s also the first to confess about his lifetime savings being destroyed by this “fucking crypto shit” and the first out, in and out again when it’s not going too well.

If you recognise yourself in this, I would advise to stop trading immediately and stay away from your local casino as well.

The investor in denial

Even when coin prices already changed drastically, some people fail to point out why. Just go on any coin feed and you’ll see guys asking why it went up and others replying whatever news they saw 3 milliseconds earlier.

This South Korean bank added XRP to process their payments

Truth is big changes are often simply caused by trading platforms adding or refusing to add a coin, which adds volume or make people freak out. Nobody cares about what banks add or what new partner Ripple have, the impact seems random.

I don’t say it’s a good thing, I wish changes were instigated by the real coin potential, but it’s currently not really the case.

The other biggest time I’ve noticed drastic price changes is when people purely and simply panic. It can cause huge falls, but this is pretty classical, everyone saw that.

The whale conspiracy theorist

Oh boys, that’s whale work

I don’t deny there are some giant investors able to lead price trends, but this kind of talk is way too present in the crypto world. There are many possible factors for price changes, and spotting “whale” at every big change is just too easy.

The real problem with this profile is that this same guy certainly thinks 9/11 was an inside job and we’ve never been to the moon, which makes his opinion quite invalid to the rest of us.

Well then, why can’t I see the curve ?

- Some flat earth believer

The new age mathematician

The moving average shows that it should resist at 94.0383 and go up again.

Stop to pull analytics from your ass. You don’t fucking know, no one does. If crypto prices were lead by logic in the curve itself, we would be aware of it.

I don’t say this kind of observations is bad, but in a market where some coins go to +10,000% in a year, it’s not a small candlechart analysis which will lead anywhere.

The modern soothsayer

Finally, you have the worst of them all, the guy which literally preaches things out of who knows where.

This coin will be worth 30 000 USD in 2 years because from my calculations the market capitlization has a potential of 10 schmeckles.

Calm your tits Nostradamus. I bet this guy placed way too much money into his trades and try to find comfort for the long-term. Problem is, it’s overdone. It’s not because a coin has some potential that it will go anywhere near that.

The conclusion

Sadly, nobody really knows where we are going, we may go to the moon, or this will turn out to be a real bloodbath.

I believe you should trust no one, take news lightly and just understand where you’re putting your money in. Daily trade sounds a lot like a bad bet in all this, so target for the long run and check it out once in a while ; that was my 2 cents on the matter.