MLS writer Matthew Doyle highlighted a moment in Toronto FC’s 2-1 defeat to New York City FC just over a week ago which shines a light on the current troubles of the defending MLS Cup champions. TFC gave up possession cheaply in the opposition half. That was forgivable, but their reaction to the turnover was not.

Lack of urgency & effort from TFC after this turnover is just shocking, to the point where I'm wondering what has broken in the locker room. #NYCvTFC pic.twitter.com/Z9Hstz2jXW — Matthew Doyle (@MattDoyle76) June 24, 2018

As soon as Eriq Zavaleta conceded the ball, heads dropped. Jonathan Osorio actually crouched, hands on knees, as NYC FC raced away on the counter. Victor Vazquez did the same, showing no interest in tracking back to help prevent the goal. For anyone of a TFC persuasion, this was a concerning sign. Are they a broken team?

Just as concerning is the sight of the Canadians sitting slumped second bottom of the Eastern Conference. Successive losses to NYC FC and the New York Red Bulls offered an illustration of where Toronto FC are right now as they head into the second half of the season just five points above rock-bottom DC United, who have played two matches fewer.

Excuses have been made for Toronto FC’s dismal start to the 2018 season. Many of them are valid. Injuries, of course, have been a primary factor, with Jozy Altidore, Drew Moor and Chris Mavinga still sidelined. Most of TFC’s key figures have suffered an injury at one stage or another so far this season. The run to the final of the Concacaf Champions League also took a lot out of the players at an early stage of the campaign.

But at what point do those excuses expire? Toronto FC have now played 16 league games and have so far failed to string together back-to-back wins. Their best run of form came before the World Cup break, when they went three games without defeat, and even then they managed to concede three times to the Columbus Crew and then four times to DC United at home, allowing a 3-0 lead to slip in the former instance.

This is a team that in the space of a few months have lost their identity. Greg Vanney puts this down to the chopping and changing required to compensate for so many injuries. Sebastian Giovinco, for instance, has been used as a lone striker in the absence of Altidore. This has led to a lack of fluidity, with the on-the-field relationships that carried TFC to their first ever MLS Cup last year fragmented by so much disruption.

Toronto FC’s story isn’t too dissimilar from that of the team they have faced in the last two MLS Cup finals, the Seattle Sounders. They too have suffered a disappointing season to date, with injuries to key players also a handicap. But while there are boardroom issues simmering behind the scenes at Seattle, no such problems exist at Toronto FC, at least on the face of things. If there are underlying issues, they have yet to surface.

“Coach Greg Vanney’s future is secure, as is general manager Tim Bezbatchenko’s,” says Sportsnet’s John Molinaro. “I don’t doubt that there is bitter disappointment with club officials. But there’s been no finger pointing or laying of blame.” Indeed, the lack of spirit shown in the defeat to NYC FC might have been taken as a sign of disunity, but more likely it showed a group of players as baffled by their own failings as everyone else.

“Because we’re losing, everything is under the microscope,” Osorio said after that loss at Yankee Stadium last week. This is true, but even with so many examining every defeat and below-par performance, answers have been hard to come by. All that is apparent is that Toronto FC need a reset, not just to allow key players a chance to recover from injury, but to recalibrate mentally.

“The two biggest problems have been mental and physical exhaustion,” adds Molinaro. “They’e travelled a great distance and played a lot of football across two competitions over the last four months. That has taken a big toll on the players.” Unfortunately for TFC, six games over the course of July is only likely to aggravate their exhaustion further. There is no time to rest.

Of course, MLS’s play-off format gives TFC a longer leash than other defending champions would have in other leagues. The LA Galaxy under Bruce Arena made an art form of tilting their whole campaign from the summer onwards, carrying that momentum into the off-season where they won three MLS Cups in four years between 2011 and 2014. Seattle did the same in 2016. In fact, so poor was their first half of the season Sigi Schmid was fired before Brian Schmetzer led them to the title.

“The other side of the argument is that, with 19 games remaining, three games in hand on the Chicago Fire who are eight points ahead of TFC that the Reds have plenty of time to catch up to teams who are in the playoffs,” says Joshua Kloke of The Athletic Toronto. “But they have not been trending in the right direction.They have won one of their last six and in the second half of their game [against New York City FC], they looked gassed.”

FiveThirtyEight charts Toronto FC’s chance of making the play-offs at 34%, and just a 2% chance of successfully defending the title. There is reason behind those calculations. Before Sunday’s defeat to the New York Red Bulls, their goal difference-expected goal difference was the worst in the league, standing at -9.5. Giovinco’s goals-expected goals is the third worst in MLS (-4.20) with Jordan Hamilton’s (-2.75) the sixth worst.

There may not be a clear explanation for Toronto FC’s struggles, but the problems are very real. Fifteen games is a large enough sample size to draw conclusions from. The Concacaf Champions League final was months ago. Despite their injuries, TFC still have a stronger squad than most in MLS. Until there is a correction of course, things, like the turnover of possession at Yankee Stadium, will continue to be examined “under the microscope,” as Osorio put it.