Due to a range of factors, the betting on the result of the referendum on the Lisbon treaty in Ireland is heavily stacked in favour of the "yes". The fact that the yes campaign has, as ever, the support of the elite, self-interested business (Intel, Ryanair etc), the Irish press, the electoral commission, the state broadcaster RTE and the EU itself, which has waded in with bribes (jobs in Cork) and threats: "No commissioner, no future if you vote no", has rather skewed the pitch. Combine that with the 10-1 spend by the "yes" side over the "no" side and it is no surprise that most commentators predict a yes vote. But there still is a chance that the pundits will be proved wrong, as they were last time. One bookmaker has already paid out on a yes, but they did that last time, and look what happened.

Be that as it may, the decisions of a few million people will be of vital importance to the future of Europe as a whole and of the UK particularly, and what it means to the supposed government in waiting, David Cameron's youthful Tories. If Ireland votes yes, as seems likely, then the Tories are left carrying on much the same as they have been for the past year, "not letting it rest there". However, the Germans ratified the treaty on 25 September despite a belief in Conservative HQ that this has not happened. The Polish president, Lech Kaczynski, has promised to ratify the treaty within weeks of an Irish yes vote.

This leaves the Czechs. Even they, despite the indomitable Vaclav Klaus, have made it clear that they will have ratified in "up to six months". Indeed Pavel Rychetsky, the chairman of the Czech constitutional court where ratification is being held up, said he wanted to make the decision as soon as possible, and all indications are it will be before Christmas. The problem for the Tories with a yes vote is that the circumstances will indeed have changed if the general election is on 6 May next year.

Thus, he will say with a heavy heart that we have to honour our treaty obligations. No referendum. Britain stuck in the post-Lisbon EU.

At this point the only logical referendum to hold would be a broader one, on our relationship with the EU itself. It's a debate Cameron does not want because of the huge divisions within his own party on the issue due to the horror of the vast majority of Conservative party members who think about country before party.

Of course there must be a referendum in the UK. It is ridiculous that our future should be in the hands of 3 million Irish people, or for that matter in the hands of half a dozen Czech judges.

Ukip will be fielding 500 candidates at the next general election. Recent marginal constituency polling puts Ukip at 6% before our campaign is begun. The impact of that should concentrate the minds of the bigger parties, and encourage them to give the people a chance to decide their own future.