Archive Photo: Independent Electoral Commission officers carrying a ballot box after pensioners cast their votes during the special voting programme on May 5, 2014 in Bekkersdal, South Africa. (Photo by Gallo Images / Sowetan / Mohau Mofokeng)

The ANC caused one of the biggest by election shocks of 2018 when they took Ward 71 from the DA in the Chatsworth and Queensburgh area of eThekwini on Wednesday night. Chatsworth was solidly behind the DA two years ago and that is at serious risk now.

Fielding a young, telegenic candidate the ANC overcame the cold, the wind and the rain to win an important election in a province where they have had their by-election struggles in 2018. The DA saw it lose votes to the ANC and the IFP in this ward.

There were two other by-elections in KwaZulu-Natal on Wednesday 3 October.

They saw the IFP increase their majority in a competitive seat in the Mthonjaneni municipality and the DA winning a bigger majority in the uMhlatuze by-election. The ANC lost ground, but still had a convincing hold in the seat contested in the Steve Tshwete municipality in Mpumalanga.

Ward 71 (Bottlebrush Shallcross) in eThekwini in ANC 46% (26%) DA 38% (62%) IFP 10% (0%) MF 2% (3%) EFF 2% (2%) ACDP 1% (1%)

The ward comprises of six voting districts. The largest of the six voting districts is the informal settlement of Bottlebrush in Chatsworth. The ANC ran up the numbers here in 2016. The rest of the ward includes Chatsworth suburbs of Crossmoor, Moorton and Shallcross and the Queensburgh suburb of Malvern. Five out of six voting districts were carried by the DA in 2016 with them receiving over 80% of the vote in four of those districts. This by-election result would also enable some insight into the shape of the Minority Front (MF). The party struggled here in 2016 and needed to have a strong showing if they want to hold on to their lone seat in the KwaZulu-Natal legislature.

The ANC could not rely solely on their stronghold of Bottlebrush. In fact, their percentage vote tally decreased from 84% to 80% in this voting district. This would also be the only voting district where the DA’s percentage vote share would rise, getting 12%, compared to the 5% in 2016. Despite, this slight decrease for the ANC, this district was fundamentally key in the victory last night. They still achieved a large majority here, while the DA was cut down to size in its respective strongholds. The DA received 87% of the vote in Shallcross, the second largest voting district in the ward in 2016, with the ANC receiving a mere 5%. Last night the ANC won this key voting district, by getting 49% of the vote, with the DA plummeting to 42%.

Despite the DA winning four out of the six voting districts, their decreased returns could not help cover up their Shallcross loss. In the suburb of Malvern in Queensburgh, the DA went from 87% to 48%, while the ANC’s percentage vote share went from 5% to 42%. At the Elora School district in Moorton in Chatsworth, the DA’s percentage vote share nosedived from 83% to 42%, with the IFP coming second here getting 33% of the vote, increasing their votes in the district from 3 to 167. The ANC almost tripled their percentage vote share going from 6% to 17%. The DA had decreasing returns in the remaining two districts which includes Crossmoor and another station in Moorton.

The swings achieved by the ANC in Shalcross and Malvern would give the party a tremendous amount of optimism for the 2019 election. The party was having a tough time of it in the northern heartland of the province and this result will motivate the party leaders and volunteers. The DA will need to head back to the drawing board and wonder how their percentage vote share could decline so much. Chatsworth was solidly behind the party two years ago and that is at serious risk now.

The IFP came ninth in this ward in 2016. They finished well ahead of the rest of the chasing pack to finish third here. They not only continue to make an impact in the northern part of the province but picked up many votes in eThekwini last night. The MF continues to struggle. They will have to embark on an effective turnaround strategy or risk not returning to the provincial legislature next year.

Voting District Breakdown Ward 71

Voting District ANC DA IFP MF Bottlebrush 80% (84%) 12% (5%) 3% (7%) 0 (0) M. Padavatan School (Crossmoor) 12% (6%) 68% (81%) 15% (0) 4% (6%) Moorton Community Hall 19% (20%) 55% (69%) 21% (0) 2% (4%) Elora School (Moorton) 17% (6%) 42% (83%) 33% (0) 2% (4%) Malvern 42% (5%) 48% (87%) 4% (0) 3% (3%) Shallcross 49% (5%) 42% (82%) 3% (0) 3% (5%)

All data is retrieved from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) website. Brackets indicate previous support.

Turn-out was 31%

The new seat allocation for eThekwini is ANC 127 (126) DA 60 (61) IFP 10 EFF 8. There are 219 seats on the council.

Ward 3 (St. Pius Mhoyiza)in Mthonjaneni in KZN IFP 63% (56%) ANC 36% (41%) EFF 1% (2%).

The Mthonjaneni municipality is an Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) controlled, inland municipality in the battleground district of the King Cetshwayo District Municipality in KZN. It lies near places like Nkandla and Eshowe and Empangeni. Ward 3 includes villages and rural settlements with part of the ward lying next to the principal town of the municipality-Melmoth.

In 2016 the IFP won five out of the six voting districts and tied with the ANC in one voting district.

In late June, the IFP won a seat off the ANC in Mthonjaneni. In order for the ANC to revenge that loss, they would need an 8% swing in this competitive ward.

The ANC was not able to get a swing back to them in Ward 3, with the IFP obtaining a healthy increase in this election.

The most votes cast on Wednesday was in the village of Mhoyiza, east of Melmoth, the IFP vote share went up from 55% to 76%, with the ANC’s vote share almost halved from 44% to 23%. The margin of victory here was 314 votes and this would be very difficult for the ANC to catch up elsewhere. In 2016 the two parties tied at Sinqobile School in the village of Emkhindini. The IFP won this district narrowly last night by 13 votes, but this allowed them to do a clean sweep of all the districts in the ward.

In 2016 the most votes in this ward were cast at St. Pius, which lies next to the town of Melmoth. In an unusual development, the least valid votes were cast here, with turn-out at 14%. 16% of the votes cast here were also spoilt. Spoilt votes were low in every other district. The voters of St Pius were clearly not happy. The low enthusiasm at St Pius allowed the ANC to almost carry this district, falling two votes short of the IFP. The IFP won here by 114 votes in 2016 and will need to reach out to the voters here who did not show up or spoilt their ballot.

The National Freedom Party (NFP) did not contest this by-election. The IFP remain in outright control of Mthonjaneni. This is a very good result for the party.

Turn-out was 46%, which is good when one considers how low the turn-out was at the district which received the most votes in 2016.

Ward 3 in uMhlatuze (Arboretum Richards Bay) in KZN DA 68% (64%) ANC 20% (20%) IFP 8% (9%) EFF 4% (2%)

The uMhlatuze municipality is an ANC-controlled municipality in the King Cetshwayo District Municipality in KZN. It lies on the North Coast and its principal towns are Richards Bay and Empangeni. Ward 3 is in Richards Bay and includes the suburb of Arboretum.

The DA had a comfortable hold here. The voters in Ward 3 stood by the party as it slightly increased its percentage vote in the ward and enlarged the margin between it and the ANC. The ANC will be happy with the fact that they not only held onto but also increased their majority over the DA in the marginal John Ross College voting district in Arboretum.

Turn-out was 26%.

Ward 25 in Steve Tshwete (Mhluzi Middelburg) in Mpumalanga ANC 70% (79%) EFF 30% (17%)

The Steve Tshwete municipality is an ANC-controlled municipality in the Nkangala District of Mpumalanga. The main town is Middelburg. It also includes Hendrina. The municipality sits on both sides of the N4 highway. Ward 25 is centred around the Mhluzi, which is just west of Middelburg and sits next to the R555 and the N11 roads.

The ANC might have still run up the numbers in this by-election, but the EFF had good growth, resulting in the ANC losing over 10% of its support in the ward, with the EFF almost doubling its percentage support in the ward. This was the best result for the EFF on the night, and with more returns like this, they might fancy their chances of becoming the official opposition in Mpumalanga in 2019.

Turn-out was 34%

There is a three-week break until the next round of by-elections. The DA will defend a marginal seat in The Breede Valley in the Western Cape. The ANC has a real chance here of winning another ward off the DA. If the DA loses this seat, it will lose its outright control of this important municipality. The ANC will defend three safe seats – in Ray Nkonyeni in the ANC stronghold of southern KwaZulu-Natal, Greater Letaba in Limpopo and Knysna in the Western Cape. DM