There are 104 starters in the majors with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Clay Buchholz ranks 103rd (6.35 ERA). Strip out any luck associated with balls in play and focus on-his Fielding Independent Pitching mark and he’s the worst in the majors at 5.91.

He’s given up the third-most homers per nine innings (1.9) in the majors, and after permitting three two-run homers in an 8-2 loss on Thursday, he’s allowed 10 long balls with men on base this year – easily the most in the majors (no one else has more than 7).


This is 10 starts – roughly a third of a season of work – rather than a short sample. Based on performance, Buchholz doesn’t belong in a big league rotation right now so long as there is another pitcher available who does.

In 2012, the Red Sox didn’t have that luxury when Buchholz opened the year with a 7.84 ERA, 11 homers allowed, and an equal number of walks (27) and strikeouts (27) through his first nine starts. Buchholz stayed in the rotation and pulled a whiplash-inducing U-turn, with a 2.79 ERA and an average of 7 1/3 innings per start over his next 18 outings spanning nearly four months.

Yet it’s fair to wonder whether he would have gotten that opportunity had the Sox’ rotation not been as much in tatters as it’s been at any point in the last 30 or so years. There was no Travis Shaw (metaphorically speaking) to push him aside.

In Eduardo Rodriguez, the Sox now likely have their Shaw to Buchholz’s Sandoval. That doesn’t mean that Buchholz isn’t capable of altering the trajectory of his season. But there’s nothing beyond a leap of faith and similarly unpredictable about-faces from the past to suggest that such an outcome is likely.


Rodriguez’s stuff is showing improvement, and as Julian Benbow writes, the Red Sox were considering the possibility that his next start should be in the big leagues even before Buchholz’s latest ugly outing.

Buchholz, meanwhile, needs to figure out how to pitch at a level other than the flat plane he’s operated on for the entirety of this year. The Sox are 3-7 (.300) in games started by Buchholz, as far under .500 as they are over it when anyone else starts (26-11, .702). They are 2-5 (.286) when he starts at Fenway, with that handful of losses matching their total number from all of their other starters who have taken the hill at home this year (16-5, .762).

In the absence of progress, it does neither Buchholz nor the team much good for him to keep making starts.

Red Sox manager John Farrell said that team decision-makers will meet to discuss the next step for Buchholz. The righthander said that he will understand whatever decision the team feels it has to make, writes Julian Benbow in his game story.

Unless the Sox believe there’s benefit to giving Rodriguez one more start to solidify his revamped delivery from the windup, it’s hard to imagine that Buchholz is the team’s best option to face the Orioles in Baltimore next week.

Follow Alex Speier on Twitter at @alexspeier.