The coalition is serially failing to match its own teacher recruitment goals, prompting critics to warn that there will be 27,000 fewer teachers in three years’ time than will be needed.

For the third year in a row the government is set to miss its target for trainee teachers across primary and secondary schools. Just 30,510 trainees have been placed in teacher training so far for 2014-15 – more than 4,000 short of the target and 7,700 fewer than were recruited in 2010.

If the government continues to fail to recruit teachers at the required rate or higher, the potential shortfall would force headteachers to increase class sizes, according to shadow education secretary Tristram Hunt.

Hunt said: “David Cameron’s trainee teacher shortage is storing up trouble for our schools.

“This, alongside his decision to allow schools to permanently employ unqualified teachers and the crisis in primary school places that is leading soaring class sizes, shows just how deeply his Tory-led government is damaging standards for children.

“He urgently needs to get a grip over his education policies and put an end to the crises in primary school places and teacher supply that his government is creating.”

The coalition has spent more than £4m on a recruitment campaign to meet teacher training targets. Labour claims that this is more than double what was spent on teacher recruitment campaigns in 2010, when a higher target was met.

Although the country will need more than 52,000 entrants to the teaching profession each year over the next three years, the latest figures available show that 44,107 teachers entered the profession in 2011-12.

If the same number of teachers entered the profession each year until 2017, there would be 132,321 entrants to teaching between 2015 and 2017.

This would be nearly 27,000 short of the 159,300 teachers the country needs over this period, according to the government’s own forecasts.

A Department for Education spokesperson said: “Last year we recruited 99% of the teachers we needed and we are confident we will recruit enough this year.

“We have reformed teachers’ pay so that heads can reward the most effective teachers who get the best out of their pupils, and we are continuing to find ways to reduce unnecessary paperwork and make it easier for teachers to do the job they came into teaching to do – inspiring the next generation.”

It is understood that the National College for Teaching and Leadership will shortly be launching a new recruitment campaign for the sector, called Your Future Their Future, to address the shortfalls.