Like the dog that caught the car, Donald Trump doesn’t seem to know what to do with his presidency. On the one hand, he is a creature of resentment who is most comfortable playing the aggrieved victim. On the other, he is an unrelenting narcissist who is pathologically incapable of finding any fault with himself, and by extension, his office. This has led, at times, to some temple-scratching contradictions: the unemployment rate, which Trump said in 2016 was as high as “42 percent,” is now “the lowest in 16 years”; the military, which last year was “embarrassing to our country,” is now the greatest it has ever been. The humanitarian crisis in Puerto Rico isn’t Trump’s fault because it already had “massive debt,” but it is also a Trump triumph because of the government’s “massive” response. The United States, in other words, is winning again.

Of course, Trump also needs to maintain the fiction that the U.S. business community is in terrible shape, and desperately needs corporate tax cuts, even as he is equally compelled to tout the very real fact that the stock market is at record highs. All of which has led to some pretty muddled messaging:

While it’s unclear what media Trump is consuming if he hasn’t seen wall-to-wall, practically deafening coverage of stock-market gains, he is correct that we are in the midst of a historic, if inexplicable, rally, and that unemployment is at a multi-year low. Unfortunately, he either doesn’t understand or is powerless to stop himself from seeking adulation for the very things that experts say point to an economy that doesn’t need a giant, deficit-funded stimulus in the form of big, yuge tax cuts. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s Maya MacGuineas told NPR, “If we have a tax cut right now at a time when the economy doesn’t need stimulus and our debt is at near record levels, that will do a lot of damage for the economy and it will be a huge missed opportunity.”

Perhaps recognizing that he is in danger of losing the narrative, Trump will fly to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, tonight, where he is expected to inform a crowd of truck drivers that his tax plan—which experts say will disproportionately benefit the wealthy—is actually a gift to the middle class. (“Truck driver,” Bloomberg notes, is the most common job in Pennsylvania and 28 other states.) And though he has shied away from specific numbers before, this time the president seems to have found one he likes: $4,000, the amount the White House will say the average American household will get from the proposed legislation. That “$4,000 pay raise” will probably sound pretty nice to the middle-class wage earners gathered ’round to hear the president speak! Of course, that figure is the total the White House says the average household would save over eight years, so that “pay raise” would actually be more like $500. It’s not yet clear whether the fine print will make the final draft of Trump’s speech.