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With the Mike Duffy trial boring its way daily into the public consciousness, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives are on the ropes.

Or are they? Much now depends on whether either of the two main opposition parties can translate the bounty of the Ol’ Duff into a plurality of votes.

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Success, paradoxically, looks likely to go to whichever of the Liberals or New Democrats can most persuasively cast themselves as populist, small-c conservatives — especially in seat-rich Ontario. At this juncture, it’s unclear whether either can pull it off.

First, let’s acknowledge the obvious: Canada no longer has a federal party of the left, centre and right, supplemented by the Greens off on the fringe. There are three centrist parties, with slightly different tones that, to a European socialist or rightist, would appear virtually indistinguishable.

The Harper Tories, with their string of big Keynesian deficits beginning in 2009 and their smorgasbord of targeted tax breaks, are as fond of state intervention as the Jean Chretien Liberals ever were; today’s New Democrats are all about cutting small-business taxes and balancing budgets.