Vasili Podkolzin is a guy I am lower on than traditional draft pundits—who almost unanimously have him as the 3rd ranked prospect—but I’m higher on than many of my peers who spend a lot of time on prospect data analysis. He reminds me a lot of Casey Mittlestadt in that his play in national tournaments has been phenomenal and he puts up some of the best highlight reels in the draft class, but his league play, which I feel is far more important than national tournaments, has been underwhelming. He’s the guy whose eye test far outweighs his production, but at the end of the day his production in league play is low enough where I think it is inappropriate to completely ignore it. Yes, he bounced from league to league which results in small sample sizes across multiple leagues, thus making it even more difficult to interpret his numbers, but that doesn’t mean his lack of production can be completely ignored. I agree that his eye test is impressive—if it wasn’t I wouldn’t have him in my first round as his numbers are not on the level of most first rounders—but I personally feel people are overstating how good his tape is. I respectfully disagree with those that feel his tape is so great that it overcomes his lack of production enough to warrant placing him ahead of guys like Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zergras, Dylan Cozens etc., all of which I believe have comparably strong eye tests. All that said, there is certainly considerable upside to Podkolzin based on his talent alone, and I won’t fault a team for taking him high in the draft.

Newhook is an explosive player who put up incredible production in the BCHL, which is considered a lesser league to the CHL leagues and he also has had poor showings in some of the higher profile games he’s played in outside of league play. Dach is a gifted player who had an incredible start to the season, but cooled off around the midpoint of the season and has real questions about his compete level. Cole Caufield is in the argument with Arthur Kaliyev for the most gifted goal-scorer in this class, but at 5’ 7’’ and just shy 160 lbs, he definitely will need to get on that Martin St. Louis leg workout regimen to ensure he isn’t too easy to push around on the ice.

My fourth tier is similar to my third, in that each player has the ability to become a true impact player in the NHL, but I have enough questions or concerns about elements of their game or track record that prevent me from having them higher. At lucky number 13 I have Matthew Boldy, who is a gifted, powerful and versatile player that has proven he can play anywhere in the USNTDP lineup and is closer the NHL ready than perhaps anyone outside of the top few guys, but I’m just not convinced that he has the same level of raw ability as the other top players, so I have him a bit lower than many.

My 14th ranked player is the official 2019 winner of the Ty Smith Memorial Trophy, which is awarded to the player that I most adamantly feel is being under-ranked by many in the prospect analysis community, and who I will badger everyone on Twitter about being a great prospect from now until the end of time: Pavel Dorofeyev. Dorofeyev absurdly was ranked in the 60s in Bob McKenzie’s scout poll rankings earlier this year, and I am adamant that he belongs in the lottery conversation. Dorofeyev lit up the MHL with 17 goals and 14 assists in only 19 games—production that far exceeds anything more highly touted prospect Vasili Podkolzin did in the same league—before rightfully being promoted to the KHL. While he only put up 2 points in 27 games (including the playoffs) in the KHL, he absolutely looked like he belonged among the much bigger, stronger and more talented men (relative to the MHL) he was playing against. This is evidenced by the face that his ice time rose from 7:40 a game in the regular season, a typical low number for a teenager in the KHL, to 9:27 a game in the playoffs. While 9:27 is still not massive ice time, the nearly 2-minute increase in time during the most important time of the year certainly shows that he grew on his coaches.

Dorofeyev is a player that can do it all in my opinion. He’s excellent in transition and the offensive zone, but can also hold his own on defense. Despite his thin frame and current lack of strength, he plays with an edge and has a motor that never stops. He’s a balanced skater with decent speed and good edgework, and he’s excellent on and off the puck. Most impressively, he can playmake for his teammates, but also has one of the more deceptive shots in this draft class, and has the ability to go from skating to snapping off a quick writer in no time at all. He will need to add some strength and is one of the older players in this class, but overall, I think he’s an excellent prospect and I wouldn’t be mad at all if a team took a shot at him in the back end of the top-10.