The celebrations of Nowruz were marked by not-so-happy speeches by the Supreme Leader, allying himself with hardline pressure on President Rouhani over political and cultural matters.

In his New Year’s message, Ayatollah Khamenei betrayed concern over economic problems, saying the Government had not done enough so far to deal with difficulties. However, his political move came with the declaration, “Culture is even more important than economy.”

The Supreme Leader invoked — and effectively denied — the Holocaust to make his case that “absolute freedom” is never permitted in a society. However, his argument was not as much about absolute freedom as it was about President Rouhani’s promises for limited but significant opening of political and cultural spheres: Khamenei was signalling that these should not be pursued.

Rouhani issued a perfunctory endorsement of the Supreme Leader’s but remained silent otherwise. Culture Minister Ali Jannati said the Supreme Leader is a “watchdog recording all cultural threats from the enemies”.

Khamenei’s intervention and proclamation of the “Year of Economy and Culture with National Determination and Jihadi Management” overtook steady if unexciting news from the renewed high-level nuclear talks in Vienna. In the second round of discussions of a comprehensive agreement, Iran and the 5+1 Powers met for two days to define an agenda covering enrichment of uranium, the status of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and sanctions on Tehran.

Both sides called the talks “constructive”. The next round was set for April 7-9, following more technical discussions between experts.

However, the Rouhani Government’s strategy of a nuclear settlement to ease Iran’s political and economic situation — a strategy which is progressing but will take months for completion — is likely to be overtaken by the domestic contest for influence. Former Presidents made notable interventions: Hashemi Rafsanjani took on hardliners with the implicit claim that the 2009 Presidential election was fraudulent, while Mohammad Khatami criticized the Govrenment for not doing enough about political prisoners and media and cultural freedoms.

FORECAST

This appears to be the most serious dispute within Iran since the Rouhani Government took office in August.

The Supreme Leader had been balancing between the President and the hardliners, offering support for the Government’s strategy on the economy and nuclear talks in return for assurances that no major initiatives would be pursued for political and cultural “openness”.

However, that balance has been unsettled by the continuing dispute between the hardliners and Rouhani, with the President insisting earlier this month that newspapers must not be shut and intimidated.

Perhaps more significantly, the Supreme Leader’s concern over the economy — a key reason why he gave support to Rouhani for nuclear negotiations — appears to be feeding Khamenei’s worries over instability and dissent within the Islamic Republic. His speech last week signals an emphasis on the line against “sedition”, indicating that the media will continue to face restrictions and political prisoners will not be freed.

The saving grace for Rouhani, so far, is that the nuclear discussions have not been undermined by the tension. However, the Government will have to be wary of hardline statement trying to undermine the discussions and will have to show substantive progress in the next talks in April.

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