Polls show Texas congressman among voters’ favorites to take on Donald Trump but critics warn he is untested

Rarely has a candidate lost a statewide election in America and immediately been declared a major contender for the next presidential race.

Beto O’Rourke, the congressman who fell just shy of defeating the Texas senator Ted Cruz, appears to be the exception and his 2020 prospects are already sending ripples through what promises to be a remarkable and intense contest.

The dust had barely settled from the November midterm elections when the conversation took a swift turn toward who will lead Democrats in their bid to make Donald Trump a one-term president.

In the five weeks since, O’Rourke’s political ambitions have been the subject of intense chatter: the media has likened him to Barack Obama, polling has shown him in the top tier of a potentially crowded field, and some Democratic operatives are privately declaring “I’m in” if he chooses to run. The 46-year-old native of El Paso, Texas, has even been trailed by the celebrity gossip site TMZ.

A meeting between O’Rourke and Obama, held last month at the former president’s Washington office, intensified speculation over the prospects of a Beto 2020 campaign.

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Some activists said the Texan was winning over voters and activists in key battleground states long before he became a serious threat to any likely Democratic opponents.

“Since this summer, we were seeing yard signs for Beto in Iowa, which is not something you usually see for a Senate candidate from Texas,” said Sean Bagniewski, the chairman of the Polk County Democrats, an area that covers Iowa’s capital city of Des Moines.

O’Rourke has maintained a relatively low profile since his underdog bid to unseat Cruz fell short. But the three-term congressman signaled last month he was open to running for president and had made a decision along with his wife “not to rule anything out”.

His comments were a departure from earlier statements that he did not wish to seek the presidency, in the event that he lost the Texas Senate race.

O’Rourke amassed a record-breaking $38m in the third quarter of his race against Cruz and quickly developed a national following – drawing an 11th-hour endorsement from Beyoncé, herself a Texas native. While O’Rourke ultimately failed to topple Cruz, he defied expectations for any Democrat by falling within three percentage points of the Republican senator in the deeply red state of Texas.

“I’ve not seen a candidate since Barack Obama [so] electrify the base of the Democratic party,” said Rick Tyler, who served as a top aide to Cruz’s unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2016.

“I think he has real potential and real talent. He’s raised more money than any congressional candidate in the history of the United States. You simply can’t count him out.”

Recent polls have provided O’Rourke an opening as he ponders his next move.

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A CNN survey ranked him third in a list of 2020 Democratic hopefuls, behind the former vice-president Joe Biden and Vermont senator Bernie Sanders. A straw poll conducted by MoveOn, a progressive group that backed Sanders over Hillary Clinton in 2016, found O’Rourke narrowly ahead of the pack.

The Democratic party is nonetheless bracing for a sprawling field of possible presidential contenders, and there is no clear frontrunner.

O’Rourke may also face some competition in his home state of Texas from Julián Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio and housing secretary under Obama. He plans to make a final decision in mid-January about whether he will run for president.

The presence of two Texans in the race would divide loyalties in the state, said Gilberto Hinojosa, the chair of the Texas Democratic party.

“That’s not an easy decision, but it’s a healthy thing for the Democratic party,” he said.

Skeptics argue O’Rourke is still largely untested and has yet to face the intense spotlight that comes with a presidential campaign. And although his star rose as his long-shot campaign against Cruz gained steam, the latter has been a uniquely unpopular figure since he first arrived in Washington nearly six years ago.

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Some on the left have also questioned his liberal bona fides and called on the outgoing congressman to adopt more “bold, unapologetic progressive stances” on issues such as climate change, healthcare and trade.

lliana Holguin, the El Paso Democratic party chair, said O’Rouke’s Senate campaign demonstrated his ability to galvanize important Democratic constituencies, including young voters and Latinos.

“Beto was born and raised in a border community. He understands the issues facing the Latino community better than most people,” she said. “The border is not something he has to learn about. He can speak from the heart.

“Here in El Paso everyone is just patiently waiting to see what he decides to do.”