The Avalanche likely would need to have the best record in the league for the final three months to make the playoffs. That isn’t happening.

Suddenly, this went from talking about possible moves to salvage the season to conceding that’s impossible and that it’s time to move on.

The collapse was so resounding, so complete, this was like Christmas sneaking up. All of a sudden, you’re at the mall on Christmas Eve and asking the post office if it has a “Get it there yesterday” option.

It’s too late. The Avalanche’s Thursday waiver claim of Matt Nieto from San Jose amounts to an audition for next season, given that he is playing under a $735,000 one-year contract and can be a restricted free agent July 1.

Until March 1, the NHL’s trading deadline, the Avalanche’s problems and the hockey world’s fondness for educated-guess speculation; for parroting and portraying gossip as more than what it is; and for low “vetting” standards, all will combine to produce much of the talk about possible Colorado deals. That’s hockey. “Rumors” are a cottage industry.

Make no mistake: Talks have been going on and will continue. Everybody talks to everybody, about virtually everybody. General manager Joe Sakic must listen to and consider everything. Yet much of the speculation will ignore that the Avalanche: a) is within hailing distance of the $73 million salary cap; b) pending moves or buyouts, has about $52 million of payroll committed for next season; and, c) has signed the six members of its core to long-term contracts, which is a plus when trying to make trades only if the other team believes those were wise commitments and has no misgivings about inheriting them.

The Avalanche’s problem is the perception — and one that’s hard to ague with given the record — that Colorado has greatly overrated its own core, with the possible exception of Matt Duchene (signed through 2018-19) and with the jury still out on Nathan MacKinnon (signed through 2022-23).

The plan was like Chicago’s; the core hasn’t been.

Beyond Duchene and MacKinnon, the rest of the core includes Erik Johnson (through 2022-23), Gabe Landeskog (2020-21), Tyson Barrie (2019-20), and Semyon Varlamov (2018-19). Mikko Rantanen‘s entry level deal runs through 2018-19.

Anything Sakic does in the immediate future should be with next season and beyond in mind, and that’s what he told me in a conversation Friday before the Avalanche beat the Islanders 2-1 in overtime. That’s regardless of whether Sakic stays on the job or if he decides that he’s not enjoying himself, this isn’t working, and it’s time to thank the Kroenke ownership for the chance and to step away. And he convincingly assured me Friday he wasn’t even considering quitting in the spring and that he plans to still be dealing with these issues next season.

“This year, but when we signed Tyson and Nathan, we got all our core signed and cost certainly going forward,” Sakic said. “We knew we’d be tight and we also know that we’re going to have a lot more room starting next year.”

It’s not “tanking” to concede the inevitable. Secondarily, the NHL has retooled the draft lottery to minimize the differences in the chances for landing the top pick for the teams finishing at the bottom, in this case also including the Vegas Golden Knights. Plus, the current projected No. 1 selection this year, Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick, has been injured much of the season and isn’t being touted as the next “generational” pick.

So, yes, Sakic undoubtedly is advertising a fire sale of noncore veterans. But what would anyone see in Colorado’s assets beyond the core? That’s also why this team is a mess. Neither the core nor the rest of the roster has been good enough.

“I think in general, you can look up and down the lineup and nobody’s really had a great first half of the season,” Sakic said. “Hopefully we get that in the second half. There are a lot of guys that have struggled and it’s the whole group.”

Short term, the cap issue makes it difficult to go young en masse down the stretch — for example, bringing up Chris Bigras, J.T. Compher and A.J. Greer. Colorado would have to find teams to take noncore veterans off its hands. This wasn’t a realistic possibility, but waiving veterans and if they’re not claimed stashing them in the AHL to open up cap room no longer is feasible. The NHL closed loopholes there and cap relief is minimal, not the equivalent of their cap hits.

I’ve never had more respect for a pro athlete than I have for Jarome Iginla, who would have to approve any trade. Dealing him and the remainder of his contract to a contender for anything at all makes sense, including doing so as a favor, but that requires finding a team that believes he still can be a valuable player and leadership figure down the stretch and during a playoff run. I could be proven wrong on that, but I believe that’s a longshot. A playoff team taking on Blake Comeau, who is under contract through next season at $2.4 million, is a possibility.

Some contracts will come off the books, most notably Iginla’s $5.3 million annual cap hit, but not enough of them will to facilitate immediate drastic retooling. The major commitments include those to Francois Beauchemin through next season and Carl Soderberg through 2019-20.

In addition, there are role and fringe players with expiring deals, and there will be significant turnover. But someone has to fill those spots, so it’s not a case of just being able to eliminate those salaries.

And I keep coming back to this: Making a bad deal for the sake of saying you did something is worse than making no deal.

Spotlight on: Avalanche “Bye” Week

When: It runs from Saturday through — well, kind of — Wednesday.

What’s Up: The Avalanche won’t have practices or games Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Background: In exchange for the Donald Fehr-led NHL Players Association going along with the change in the All-Star Game format, making it a four-team, three-on-three mini-tournament, beginning this season each team gets a five-day bye in January or February. No practices or games are allowed, with one catch: If a team is playing the day after the bye period, and the Avalanche is meeting Anaheim at home Thursday, it is allowed to practice after 4 p.m. on the fifth day. So the Avs have a practice scheduled for that time on Wednesday.

Frei’s Take: This is a variation of the precedents set in the NFL and NBA, but it almost seems forced this season in the context of a season that started later than usual because of the World Cup of Hockey, and also includes a three-day Christmas shutdown and the all-star break in late January. Colorado, for example, after the bye will play its final 36 games after the all-star break in 69 days. The impact of no games in five days isn’t that great, but it adds to — rather than lessens — the grind of the stretch run.