Even as politicians continue to bat away the idea of road tolls, another study — the second in a month — suggests that charging drivers a modest user fee could help raise badly needed civic revenue, ease Toronto’s crippling congestion and reduce smog.

A rush-hour toll of 21 cents per kilometre on the length of the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway could raise $513 million a year for Toronto, says a report published by the Pembina Institute.

The study appears on the environmental think tank’s website just as Toronto’s mayor and city manager are talking about new taxes and tools to raise money for housing and transit.

The Pembina report recommends a staged approach to tolling, one that would eventually incorporate provincial highways as the region’s rapid transit expansion comes online.

It envisions a starting rush-hour toll of 14 cents per km that would raise $487 million annually. Then, in Phase 2 in 2025, the rate would rise to 21 cents per km in rush hours, generating $513 million a year. The tolls would be lower in off-peak hours.

In the third and final phase, in 2031, tolls to the 400 series highways would raise an additional $2.5 billion, says the report. By then, the GO system would be electrified and the Eglinton Crosstown LRT and Spadina subway extension to York Region would be running.

Written by Cherise Burda, now with the Ryerson City Building Institute, and B.C. economist Lorie Srivastava, the Pembina report also quantifies the environmental, safety and health benefits of reduced congestion resulting from road pricing.

Toll revenue could be invested in rebuilding infrastructure such as the east end of the Gardiner.

But where governments invest depends on the policy’s objectives, said Pembina’s Ontario director.

“If you’re putting in some form of road pricing, are you doing it to cover the infrastructure costs? Are you doing it to get an environmental benefit?” said Eli Angen. “If your goal is to reduce congestion and move around the city better, it should be invested in transit infrastructure.”

The study, “Fare Driving: Exploring the benefits of traffic pricing in Toronto and the GTA,” follows Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission’s report endorsing the conversion of high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes in the Toronto region to high occupancy (HOT) toll lanes.

The province has promised to release details of a HOT lane test project before the end of the year.

The Pembina report recommends a more drastic approach — tolling entire stretches of road, instead of individual lanes. It does not discuss road pricing technology or implementation costs.

The study proposes a scenario in which road pricing kicks in next year and the tolls go up again in 2025 as more transit options become available. But Angen concedes that 2016 isn’t plausible.

The Yonge subway is over-capacity and the Richmond Hill and Stouffville GO lines don’t yet offer enough service to attract many of the people who would be driving north-south on the Don Valley Parkway.

“I don’t think it’s entirely appropriate to start tolling people when we haven’t provided alternatives,” he said.

If tolls were extended to the DVP, the Gardiner and provincial highways surrounding Toronto, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by nearly 360 million kg of CO2.

Angen says that’s the equivalent of taking 75,000 cars off the road, or the equivalent of residential greenhouse gases for the province of P.E.I.

The big difference between the Pembina study and other engineering-based road pricing reports is that it takes into account human behaviour, said co-author Srivastava.

“Once people have to pay a toll, some of them are definitely going to get out of their car.”

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Benefits of the toll during rush hour, ten years later

Reduced traffic (per day)

19% (DVP) 24% (Gardiner)

Congestion would decline considerably under Pembina's tolling scenario. Even though rush hour tolls would increase to 21 cents per km by 2025, drivers would have more transit options with SmartTrack, and electrified Kitchener and Stouffville GO lines.

Shorter round trips

14 min (DVP) 19 min (Gardiner)

Time savings estimates are calculated using a minutes-per-kilometre travel time contained in a Conference Board of Canada study of Highway 407 ETR. It takes into account a number of factors including the number of drivers who would switch to transit, change their route or change their journey departure time based on having to pay a toll. The growing number of drivers in the region has also been factored in.

Time is money

$5.99 (DVP) $8.13 (Gardiner)

The cost of time saved is based on a projected 2025 hourly wage of $38 per hour in peak commuting times and $15.20 per hour for nonrush periods. Although commuting times probably don't translate to in-pocket savings for most people, it is one way of putting value on time.

Lower cost of driving

$2.88 (DVP) $3.45 (Gardiner)

These savings are based on the Canadian Automobile Association's assumption that it costs 54 cents per km to operate a mid-sized car. It includes gas, insurance, licence and registration and maintenance costs. The cost of a toll is not part of the calculation.

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