With the 8-1 model, the Islanders look very exposed up front. This would see the Islanders choosing between Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, and Ryan Strome as their last protection pick up front, alongside the all-but-guaranteed Anders Lee and the two 'no movement clause' forwards, John Tavares and Andrew Ladd. However, this expansion structure provides more flexibility than some would expect. If Garth Snow decides he'd rather lock up his defence and rely upon young prospects Matthew Barzal, Joshua Ho-Sang, and Michael Del Colle to fill the hole left by a Vegas selection, he could conceivably protect 5 defencemen with odds in his favour that his entire blueline goes untouched. With Boychuk, Leddy, Hamonic, de Haan, and Pulock off the board in this scenario, the Golden Knights would be forced to go with a forward pick.

Who's vulnerable?

This sort of range in protection possibilities puts us in a rather unique position. The Islanders could go (i) 7 forwards, 3 defencemen, 1 goalie; (ii) 4 forwards, 4 defencemen, 1 goalie; or (iii) 3 forwards, 5 defencemen, 1 goalie. Any way we break it down, the goalie selection is a non-factor without a young #1 (or future #1) tender on the roster, and the first 3 forward slots are already set in stone. This leaves us a total of 5 players worth looking at as either final protection list picks or future members of the Golden Knights.

The longest tenured Islander of the vulnerable expansion group is Josh Bailey. Under the 7-3-1 model he is very much safe from having to pack a U-Haul and head west, but under the 8-1 structure Josh is very much a fringe protection pick. Years of underwhelming 30-40 point seasons make his inclusion on this list rather surprising. But 2016-17 was different. He was a new man, putting up 56 points and marking himself as a key playmaker within this team's offensive unit. His advanced stats also display a very passable 2nd line contributor. Although a red flag pops up with respect to his zone adjusted stats. Either he situationally has been quite lucky (unlikely) or he has been protected from defensive start responsibility.

Brock Nelson brings a goal scoring touch to the table, racking up 3 straight 20-goal seasons for the Islanders. The downside is, that appears to be all he's capable of. Although his offensive production may be capped, Nelson has worked his way into the 2nd-line centre slot with an added two-way responsibility bestowed upon him by the coaching staff. But this has come with variable levels of success and a downright concerning 45.0 CF% last season. Even our attempts to adjust for zone start differential couldn't bump this possession number back up. No matter how you much or little emphasis you place upon this, Nelson has been able to turn it around on the scoreboard, owning a solid 52.5% on-ice goal differential over the same 3 seasons. So frustrating as he may be to watch, the underlying talent appears to be there.

As a former 5th overall pick, the expectations placed upon Ryan Strome coming out of Major Junior were outrageaously high. His 100 point production in Niagara (OHL) hasn't been able to translate into consistent scoring success at the NHL level. Since the 2014-15 season, his stats have generally been depressed, allowing for us to draw the assumption that he may only be a player that can ride the highs and lows of a team's success and not one that can set its course. However, turning just 24 this summer, the future is still bright for this young professional, especially with Doug Weight now at the coaching helm. A more creative offensive mind should continue to open up the potential within Strome's game and allow him to attain at least 2nd-line complementary scoring duties.