The great methodology divide: All the CON leads are from phone polls – all but one of the LAB leads are from online surveys

Greater certainty to vote amongst CON voters puts the blues back into the lead with Ashcroft

The latest Ashcroft weekly phone poll is out and show a move back to CON and a 5% decline in the LAB vote. The figures and trend are in the chart above.

The CON lead is almost totally down to turnout weighting. Before that was applied LAB was ahead by a small margin. Problem for them is that its voters are less certain to vote so they are marked down.

What is really striking about the current polling is that the phone firms are the ones showing the CON leads and the online ones have LAB ahead. Just why that should be is hard to say.

The only phone poll not with a CON lead, Ipsos, is the oldest from nearly a month ago.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB

