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Surprising Parity in the NL East

Its lack of predictability makes baseball fascinating and the changing cast of heroes who step forward each game make it an everyman’s delight. The Atlanta Braves were supposed to be in big trouble due to the injuries of Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy. GM Frank Wren picked up Adam Harang and Ervin Santana and several weeks later the Braves had the best pitching record in baseball. Over his first four starts in April 2014, Aaron Harang gave up only two earned runs for an ERA of 0.70. Move over Walter Johnson, Mr. Harang is Cooperstown bound.

The numbers game giveth and the numbers game taketh away. Now Atlanta cannot buy a win and have lost eight of their last nine games to fall into third place. Perhaps most surprising of all is that the NL East overall has such a strong cast of characters. From top to bottom there are only three games separating the division leading Nationals and Marlins from cellar dwelling Phillies and every team seems to boast a top notch pitching rotation.

But it is the Marlins who have been the biggest surprise. Still thought to be rebuilding and on the verge of budding superstar Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins have turned the page and look as though their newest crop of young talent is ready for prime time. Nathan Eovaldi is ranked among the top ten NL pitchers and suddenly the Miami Marlins with Jose Fernandez and Eovaldi have the best twosome in the league. Henderson Alvarez has found greater consistency and is pitching well also to put the Marlins in the thick of the race with a record of 19-15, good enough to command the high ground atop the NL East going into tonight’s games, tied with the Washington Nationals.

It is that collective stature of the NL East that is most surprising. Until the Mets and Phillies were swept in their most recent series, they both had winning records. Both teams suffer from the same problem, a pitching staff that is good at the top but thin overall. The Mets are playing good baseball behind their best pitchers: Jon Niese (2-2, 1.82) and Dylan Gee (3-1, 2.51). Good pitching is what has so far made the division the best in the National League as every team has a starting rotation pitching to an ERA under 4.00.

While the pitching has been superlative until the recent losing streak, the Braves have been unable to score runs. They are scoring only 3.18 runs per game, next to last in the NL, just ahead of the anemic Padres. They miss Brian McCann hitting in the middle of their order and while Justin Upton, Freddie Freeman and Evan Gattis have carried the load reasonably well, the problem has been Jayson Heyward and B. J. Upton hitting at the top of the order and not getting on base. Dan Uggla is on the verge of playing himself into obscurity with a .184 batting average. After watching the replay of his collision with Denard Span a few weeks ago, it could not happen to a nicer guy.

Conversely, the Marlins are near the top of the National League in run production, scoring almost 5 runs per game and behind only the phenomenal Rockies in that category. Giancarlo Stanton is back and is on pace to hit 50 home runs and drive in 150 RBI. New acquisitions picked up relatively cheaply, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Casy McGehee and Garrett Jones have played well and young talents like Chris Yelich and Marcel Ozuna are coming into their own. Of all the surprise teams, the Marlins look like the one most likely to continue their current pace.

The Nationals are currently tied for first place with Miami. They have had to deal with injuries to Ryan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, Wilson Ramos and now Bryce Harper. Ramos returned yesterday and in his first at-bat blistered a ball off the outfield wall. Fister pitches tomorrow. If the Nationals can get healthy and stay healthy, they should have staying power at the top, but there are no guarantees.

Can it last? Probably not. Nothing is more exciting than a bunched pennant race with teams from top to bottom reaching rough parity and not deciding the winner until that last week of the season. It would be fun to watch, but the odds are agin it. Still, the NL East is shaping up as a surprising contest among young talent that bears watching.