Generation in 2018

California's electricity market(CAISO) made good,steady progress in 2018 towards a lower carbon future. Hydro generation across the state returned to a slightly below normal number but this lost generation was replaced by increased generation from renewables and an overall reduction in demand. Natural gas, nuclear and imports were basically flat Y-Y.

Renewable Generation Capacity

As seen in the above chart, renewable generation increased by an average of 14GWh/day in 2018 vs 2017 and has increased by about 60GWh/day since 2014.

This is mainly due to new solar installations across the state. CAISO currently has about 22.6GW of renewable capacity available. Utility scale renewable resources are increasing by about 1-2 GW per year in California.

Natural Gas Capacity

In contrast, NG capacity in California is declining. In 2018/2019 a net 4.5GW of NG capacity will be lost as 5 GW of NG units are retired and only 500 MW come online.

Prediction for 2019 CAISO Generation

Renewable generation will continue to grow - from 165 GWh/day in 2018 to 175GWh/day in 2019. If Hydro/Nuclear/Imports have a normal year and if demand stays flat Y-Y then Natural Gas generation will decline slightly from 177GWh/day in 2018 to about 170 GWh/day in 2019.

If this occurs we will have the first year where Renewable generation is greater than Natural Gas generation on CAISO.