Police are issuing personal warnings to men and women with a record of domestic violence in the runup to England's first World Cup game, acting on evidence that abuse against wives, girlfriends and partners spikes dramatically in the aftermath of matches – whether the team wins or loses.

The most detailed research into the links between the football World Cup and domestic abuse rates has revealed that in one force area in England and Wales, violent incidents increased by 38% when England lost – but also rose by 26% when they won.

The research, by Lancaster University criminologist Dr Stuart Kirby, a former police officer, monitored police reports of domestic violence during the last three World Cups in 2002, 2006 and 2010.

While domestic violence rose after each England game, incidents also increased in frequency at each new tournament, raising fears that the forthcoming competition in Brazil – where England's first game is against Italy on Saturday 14 June – could see the highest ever World Cup-related rises in domestic violence across the UK.

Separate national research examining the 2010 World Cup echoed the Kirby findings – with domestic abuse reports up 27.7% when the England team won a game, and 31.5% when they lost.

The research is being used by some police forces to try to prevent attacks.

In Essex, police are putting on extra patrols during and after England's first match and placing domestic violence intelligence teams in police control rooms.

In the past few weeks, officers have drawn up a list of 117 high-risk and high-frequency perpetrators – 110 men and seven women – using intelligence drawn from domestic abuse data, risk assessments and football violence data.

The individuals will be visited at home by officers and warned not to vent their feelings on their partners. Essex police are also running a high-profile social media and advertising campaign – informed by interviews with victims of domestic abuse – to raise awareness of the crime's prevalence, highlight that victims can be male, female, gay or straight, and call on the public to stand together to fight it.

Chief Constable Stephen Kavanagh said: "These trends are well established and the worrying thing is there is an increase from tournament to tournament. We have to ask – are perpetrators becoming increasingly confident? Are we seeing intergenerational abusers?

"One of the things that we are looking at is around learned behaviour and this is causing us concern. Are there now people who have seen their parent behave in this way during tournaments who now think it is acceptable for them to do the same?

"There's a mixture of factors that come together during a World Cup tournament; many people drink, there is the emotional stress of the game, and there is a whole issue around competitiveness and testosterone levels. Most people will watch the game and will never do anything violent but a small minority will become deeply aggressive and unpleasant.

"What we are trying to do is predict some of this. We are taking a forthright approach, we know who the high-risk perpetrators are and we are visiting them to say effectively: We know who you are, we know where you are and we know what you are capable of.

"I cannot guarantee we won't have a tragedy during the World Cup but we are working with victims, targeting perpetrators, working with partners to share information more effectively and try to better protect victims."

Kavanagh expects incidents of domestic violence to rise from an average of 85 calls a day by up to 22 more reports if the England team wins and up to 35 more if the team loses. His officers will wear body cameras to improve evidence-gathering and take the pressure off victims by providing independent evidence of violence. The force has seen a 30% increase in guilty pleas relating to domestic violence since using the equipment.

Other forces are also running billboard awareness-raising campaigns in an attempt to combat the expected rise of violence against women during England games.

In Lancashire – where during the 2010 tournament domestic abuse rose by 25% – billboards in Blackpool, Blackburn and Preston will tell domestic abuse offenders to: "Leave the striking to the players."

Bus shelter posters will urge victims, friends and family to: "Blow the whistle on domestic abuse."

Kirby said: "If you are a violent individual who commits domestic violence, then you are more likely to do it over the next couple of weeks.

"But because the tournament increases the causative factors for domestic abuse, there will be people who get involved in domestic abuse for the first time during England games."

He said high-profile campaigns by police forces and other agencies could reduce the violence, adding: "You can be deterred from committing the crime if someone increases your risk of detection – both by visiting perpetrators as Essex are doing and by putting information out there, flashing it across the screen, putting it on billboards, raising awareness among the public.

"The offender needs to know there are ramifications and having the message out there can deter offending and make victims less vulnerable because they know other people are in the same situation and they know they can call for help."

• This article was amended on 9 June, 2014, to give add Stuart Kirby's current position at Lancaster University