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The orange wave just keeps on rolling — but for how long? By now you’ve all seen the latest EKOS poll, which sees the NDP lapping up votes from coast to coast. The party now leads in British Columbia and Quebec, sits second in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Atlantic Canada, and clocks in at 29.1 per cent nationally — less than a point behind the first-place Conservatives at 30 per cent.

Since EKOS was in the field in the immediate wake of the Alberta election, it’s tempting to dismiss these numbers as an echo of the provincial NDP’s astounding victory there on May 5. But as pollster Frank Graves notes, the NDP has been gaining ground for four months in specific demographics, such as the university-educated and Quebecers.

What’s going on? Over those four months, federal politics has been dominated by two key themes: terrorism and the economy. On the terror file, the NDP staked out a clear position on both Bill C-51 and Canada’s involvement in Iraq and Syria, opposing both very vigorously. For voters seeking to unseat the Conservatives, these represent positions diametrically opposed to that of the government, making them the natural ‘go-to’.

The Liberals, in contrast, supported Bill C-51 while promising to change it if elected, and voted against Canada’s continued involvement in the air war. This was a ‘mushy middle’ position that satisfied no one and was difficult to explain to voters; it made Justin Trudeau look inconsistent and weak. It also turned off Liberal supporters who backed Canada’s involvement in the fight against Islamic State, potentially driving them to the Conservatives.

The NDP rose while the Liberals were spinning their wheels, suggesting that something else is at play: a polarization between pro and anti-Conservative forces — possibly even the consolidation of the ‘progressive’ vote under the NDP. The NDP rose while the Liberals were spinning their wheels, suggesting that something else is at play: a polarization between pro and anti-Conservative forces — possibly even the consolidation of the ‘progressive’ vote under the NDP.

On the economy and taxes, both the NDP and the Conservatives had clear positions before voters last fall. The NDP pledged to cut small business taxes, raise corporate taxes and fund a national childcare program. The Tories countered with a package of family-friendly policies — including income-splitting and increased child benefits and credits — which they topped up in the April budget with measures to assist seniors and increase tax-free savings limits.

The Liberals, meanwhile, had nothing in the window until last week, when they unveiled their Canada Child Benefit plan. While it got a good measure of attention, it was blown off the news pages by the stunning election results in Alberta. And as with Trudeau’s position on C-51, the Liberals are struggling to distinguish their pitch to middle-class families from that offered by the Conservatives — since both parties are targeting those families through income redistribution.

Tom Mulcair and the NDP, on the other hand, have put forward a proposal for government-subsidized childcare; like it or hate it, it’s nothing like what the other parties are offering. The Liberals have stated that they will unveil a childcare proposal of their own — but until then, the field belongs to Mulcair.

The fact that the parties’ ratings diverge somewhat from their leaders’ job approval numbers suggests that policy and brand — not personality — are driving these results. Stephen Harper and Mulcair both saw their approval ratings dip, while Trudeau’s has increased slightly over the past few polls. Still, the NDP rose while the Liberals were spinning their wheels, suggesting that something else is at play: a polarization between pro and anti-Conservative forces — possibly even the consolidation of the ‘progressive’ vote under the NDP.

This is a big problem for the Liberals, who appear to have bet the farm on their leader’s personal appeal instead of going heavy on policy. They now find themselves straddling the centre of an increasingly polarized electorate. That polarization was key to the Conservatives’ victory in 2011, and to the NDP capturing Official Opposition status. As in Alberta last week, a consolidation of anti-Tory voters under the NDP banner would squeeze the Liberals out to the benefit of both the left and the right.

If the NDP surge continues federally, Alberta might turn out to be more an expression of a larger trend than its cause — a foretaste of things to come. If the Liberals are going to reverse this situation, they need to gain enough traction with their ideas to position themselves as the true anti-Conservative party.

They need to play catch-up — and fast — if they don’t want the orange wave to sweep them overboard.

Tasha Kheiriddin is a political writer and broadcaster who frequently comments in both English and French. After practising law and a stint in the government of Mike Harris, Tasha became the Ontario director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and co-wrote the 2005 bestseller, Rescuing Canada’s Right: Blueprint for a Conservative Revolution. Tasha moved back to Montreal in 2006 and served as vice-president of the Montreal Economic Institute, and later director for Quebec of the Fraser Institute, while also lecturing on conservative politics at McGill University. Tasha now lives in Whitby, Ontario with her daughter Zara, born in 2009.

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