The women's game might be the right vehicle to spread the game to the two biggest untapped markets - China and USA © Getty Images

A decade ago, Afghanistan had just come through World Cricket League Division Five, after tussles with Jersey and Japan. The notion that they would be playing Test cricket against India in ten years was not merely fanciful, it was so ludicrous that no one even dared utter it.

Predicting how world cricket might evolve over the next decade, then, is a perilous pursuit. But it is one that the ICC, in its recent analysis, "A Global Strategy For Cricket - Update", has necessarily concerned itself with. And for all the uncertainty, it is possible to discern the contours of how cricket will evolve over the next decade.

One of the most fundamental shifts will involve the continuation of a current trend: the rise of women's cricket. "If managed properly, women's cricket will be the fastest-growing aspect of the sport over the next decade," believes Jon Long, a managing director of the sports marketing company Nielsen, and a former senior figure at the ICC. "There will be more professional players, brands will start to see the value of investing in the women's game, and audiences will grow, particularly in Asia."

In the years ahead, cricket is poised to become a game in which the best athletes are celebrated and world-famous, regardless of gender. Many inside the sport believe that last summer's World Cup was a seminal moment in turbocharging the global growth of the women's game; although that tournament was in 50-over format, the potential of the women's game is viewed as greatest in T20. The recent Asia Cup - in which Thailand beat Sri Lanka and Bangladesh beat India in the final - showcased the increased depth of the sport. Whether the international hierarchies in the women's game mirror those in the men's sport, or whether - like in football and rugby - they are distinct from them will partly be determined by the allocation of ICC funding, and the inclusiveness of global events.

The women's game is likely to be one manifestation of cricket's globalisation. But while cricket fans have been conditioned into thinking that the international game is the pinnacle, the ascent of T20 leagues means that this is changing. The proportion of cricket's total revenue derived from club v club contests - rather than country v country - has more than doubled, to over 40%, since 2008, according to Long. National boards have sought to develop revenue-drivers that are independent of international cricket, where home broadcasting rights are volatile and largely contingent upon the identity of the touring side.

Within a decade - and perhaps much sooner - the majority of cricket's revenue might well come from domestic tournaments. As such, the international game will need to accept a less prominent position. The Future Tours Programme for 2020-24 recognises this reality, with nations rationalising their international cricket schedules to allow a greater focus upon their domestic leagues. All of this points to a future in which the overarching structure of cricket becomes more like that of football - with marquee international tournaments fitting in around the domestic schedule. Long thinks that cricket will resemble basketball and football in having a plethora of domestic leagues, occupying different tiers of playing strength and appeal.

With the T20 format growing in popularity, will we soon see the World T20 expand to become an inclusive global event? © IDI/Getty Images

For players, the rise of T20 leagues, combined with the vast disparities in earnings between players from different countries from their national board, is creating incentives to become freelance, and eventually retire early from international cricket. "This has not yet fully hit England and Australia, but it will," says Tony Irish, the head of FICA, the players' association umbrella body, warning of the risk of "increasing fragmentation" in the sport. But Irish believes that if the current ICC discussions over the sport's future result in national boards implementing a coherent global strategy for the sport, cricket can still ensure "genuine and sustained balance between the traditional landscape and the T20 leagues". As most national boards still own their leagues, they can exercise control over the future shape of both T20 tournaments and internationals.

The growing prominence of T20 leagues will be part of a broader elevation of T20. The ICC's recent decision to ditch the Champions Trophy for good - after several previous failed attempts - and replace it with another World T20 event, to now take place every two years in both the men's and women's games, amounts to recognition both of T20's growing popularity and its ability to help globalise the sport.

The main stage of the men's World T20 is expanding from ten to 12 nations from the next edition; within a decade, the first stage of the tournament - effectively an extra qualifying round before the main event - might well be ditched altogether, and the main tournament itself could feature at least 16 sides. While the depth of the women's game is less than the men's game, eventual expansion of the women's World T20 event - which currently comprises ten countries - is also likely. The recent decision to award all men's and women's international sides full T20I status hints at a new push to expand the sport.

Yet many within the ICC believe that the greatest boost to globalisation could come from cricket joining the Olympic Games. This would not only provide exposure for the game in emerging countries, it would effectively be expansionism with someone else footing the bill. As most national governments offer significant funding for sports that are in the Olympics, joining the Games would instantly transform the finances of cricket in many emerging nations with large economies. Since rugby rejoined the Games in 2016, World Rugby estimates that the sport has received over US $25 million in funding from national Olympic committees for every four-year cycle, and been added to the school curriculum in countries like Brazil, China and the US.

The ICC hopes that cricket will be in the Olympics within a decade, with fresh impetus for the sport's elevation after the 2017 Women's World Cup. The strong possibility that India might host the 2032 Games is also viewed as beneficial to cricket joining the Games. If cricket becomes an Olympic sport, it will intensify efforts to expand the game in new markets - above all China and the USA, which the ICC has been targeting for a number of years. In the short term, these two countries may have the greatest chance of making an impact in the women's game, given that hierarchies are more fluid in women's cricket, and these nations have strong traditions in women's sport. Neither China nor the US are featuring in the ongoing football World Cup - but both have hosted multiple women's football World Cup tournaments, and contested the final against each other in 1999.

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For all the focus upon T20, and the intermittent calls for one-day internationals to be scrapped to sanitise the sport's schedule, there is no indication that ODIs will be eradicated in the next decade. Indeed, the ICC regards ODIs as a crucial bridge between the three formats of the sport. It is hoped that the new ODI league for the top 13 nations, which will launch after next year's World Cup, will increase interest in bilateral ODIs. The World Cup itself remains the most valuable event in the sport - and, Long envisages, will become even more lucrative in the years ahead. The ten-team round-robin format used in 2019 is currently scheduled to be used in 2023 too, reflecting cricket's long-standing tension between globalisation and short-term revenue maximisation. Leading Associate nations might find they are pushed ever more towards specialising in T20, even though they believe they are more competitive than ever in ODI cricket too.

Indeed, as England's announcement that their envisaged new T20 competition from 2020 will be a 100-ball tournament instead highlights, cricket's future will not be limited to its main three formats. From the 100-ball format to the T10 tournament in the UAE, the long-running Hong Kong Sixes, and other forms as yet unimagined, further experimentation is inevitable. But this is very unlikely to extend to international cricket, which will be limited to the three forms.

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The oldest international format of the lot, Test cricket, is quietly in the midst of a period of profound change. This year Afghanistan and Ireland have become the 11th and 12th Test nations in history. The proliferation of day-night Test matches - within a decade, these may be more common than day Tests in some countries - has so far brought a 25% uptick in viewing figures; if this is sustained over a longer sample, it could be transformative for Test cricket's long-term vibrancy. And the launch of the new World Test Championship, commencing with the Ashes series in 2019, is among the most radical changes in the format's entire history: a decisive move away from the Victorian system of bilateral internationals, and an attempt to imbue games with context in a league structure.

The thinking among boards and broadcasters is that the new Test structure is deeply flawed - there are no precedents of international leagues taking two full years to run one cycle, with every team not playing everyone else - but that it is still a marked improvement on the status quo, where there is effectively no overarching structure at all. As the Test league evolves, the number of teams in the competition - currently only nine of the 12 Test nations - might well rise; the ICC's previously favoured concept of two divisions could even be revisited. Privately some broadcasting insiders also believe that a concept akin to a Test World Cup, with teams playing a tournament in a six-week period, might be a way of injecting new vibrancy into the format.

The years ahead will bring copious debates over cricket's future and how to manage its daunting and multifarious challenges. Yet, for all the questions that it faces, perhaps never has cricket enjoyed such abundant opportunities.

Tim Wigmore is a freelance journalist and author of Second XI: Cricket in its Outposts

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