A huge crime wave blamed on thousands of Katrina evacuees in Houston and other Southwest cities never happened, say criminologists who warned public officials and the media to be careful in attributing crime to the former New Orleans residents.

Five criminologists who reviewed crime statistics published a study in the current issue of the Journal of Criminal Justice, and found only a “modest” increase in the murder rates of Houston and Phoenix, and none in San Antonio, three cities that took in thousands of evacuees from storm-ravaged New Orleans.

The researchers did not find an accompanying rise in auto theft and assaults and other crimes, which they said would have been expected if dispossessed evacuees were responsible for a crime hike.

“What we found in Houston was there appears to be an increase in some categories of crime, in particular murder and robbery, during the Katrina time period when the evacuees came to Houston. There was no significant change in rape, aggravated assault, burglary or auto theft,“ said lead author Sean P. Varano, an assistant professor who teaches criminal justice at Roger Williams University in Rhode Island.

Varano said the study was conducted to see whether anecdotal information and media reports about a rise in crime caused by Katrina evacuees was real. After the powerful August 2005 hurricane flooded New Orleans, Houston's population swelled 7 percent as it welcomed nearly 240,000 evacuees, while San Antonio received about 30,000 evacuees and Phoenix 6,000, the study said.

“We did have an initial spike, but then things did settle down when we got a handle on it,” said Andy Kahan, Houston's crime victims advocate.

In early 2006, then-Houston police chief Harold Hurtt announced homicides increased 23 percent the previous year, and noted that 23 homicides between September and December 2005 involved Katrina evacuees, as suspects or victims. The FBI's Uniform Crime Report showed homicides and non-negligent manslaughter increased to 377 in Houston in 2006, up from 334 in 2005.

‘Local speculation'

The study examined weekly crime reports in the three cities from January 2004 to September 2006, and found there were increases in certain categories of crime after the storm.

But the researchers concluded “none of the pre- and post-Katrina crime levels was significantly different in San Antonio, only homicide was different in Phoenix, and homicide and robbery in Houston. Overall, the contention that displaced persons altered a city's crime problem found limited support.

“So, what that tells us from our analysis of data, there does appear to have been an effect of the Katrina time period, but I don't believe it to be a large-scale crime wave like local speculation had suggested,“ Varano said.

Not blaming evacuees

He added: “One of our takeaway messages is if the evacuees were responsible for this crime wave, we would have expected to see a much broader range of crime to increase besides murder and robbery. This is not quite the effect the local people claimed on the ground there.“

Gary Blankinship, president of the Houston Police Officer's Union, said he thought the Houston Police Department had kept track of Katrina-related crime.

“Seems like there was more crime, and the officers talked about it,” he said, “but I don't have any actual data.“

Varano cautioned media and public officials not to blame evacuees for crime.

“To say a group came in to a place like Houston and created a crime problem seems to be passing the buck,“ Varano said.

“Houston, San Antonio, Phoenix ... all had pre-existing crime problems they have been struggling with for generations to correct. To say they created a tremendous spike in the crime problem appears to be an overstatement.”

james.pinkerton@chron.com