

Plain Dealer

NFL Draft Special



Analyzing the odds of draft success in eight parts.



1. Overview: 13 picks for the Browns; can the team change its draft record? 2. Team-by-team: Patriots best and Browns worst in drafting All-Pros; a leaguewide look. 3. Round 1: Most All-Pros are found in first round, but not necessarily at the top. 4. By position: All-Pro wide receivers found higher in draft, on average, than other positions. 5. A wide receiver? Using a top pick on a wideout is not such a bad idea, history shows. 6. A quarterback? Bust factor for picking a QB early is high, but so can be the reward. 7. Other positions: A rundown of cornerbacks, tackles and running backs taken in Top 5. 8. Nos. 4, 22 and 37: A rundown of players chosen previously where the Browns are picking.

CLEVELAND, Ohio - When mining for NFL gold, look to round one of the draft.

If history repeats itself, more future All-Pros will be taken in the first round of the draft than the other six rounds combined. But having the No. 1 overall pick isn't necessary -- at least in improving the odds of finding a future All-Pro.

All-Pro rosters from 2002-11 included only four former No. 1 picks -- offensive tackle Orlando Pace (from the 1997 draft), quarterback Peyton Manning (1998), defensive end Mario Williams (2006) and offensive tackle Jake Long (2008).

The Browns pick fourth this year. There were just as many All-Pros taken in that spot as first. Offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden (1996), cornerback Charles Woodson (1998), running back Edgerrin James (1999) and defensive end Justin Smith (2001) were all No. 4 picks.

The Browns also pick 22nd: This has been an unlucky position, with no All-Pro selections over the last 10 years. (They should try to trade down to 24, where seven future All-Pros have been found -- the most of any first-round position.)

In an attempt to grade success, The Plain Dealer matched draft lists with a decade of AP All-Pro teams from 2002 to 2011. That's a high bar to set -- finding an All-Pro -- but what NFL general manager wouldn't be thrilled with that outcome? Special teams players were excluded because most were undrafted free agents.