Name: Tyler Bozak

Height: 6’01

Weight: 195 lbs

Experience: 6th Pro Season

Cap Hit: $4,200,000

Stats: 70GP, 19G, 22A, 40PIM, -31

See below for all advanced stats formulas. It helps!

Corsi Relative: -4.3

– A Corsi relative score of -4.3 indicates that the Toronto Maple Leafs get 4.3 LESS shot attempts than their opponents when he is on the ice (60 minute measurement) as opposed to when he is off the ice.

– This number ranks Tyler Bozak as the worst Maple Leafs centerman. One can normally argue that Bozak is likely facing the opponents top line but Nazem Kadri has actually been deployed in that role, as evidenced by their quality of competiton:

Nazem Kadri: 0.706 Corsi Rel QoC

Tyler Bozak: 0.471 Corsi Rel QoC

PDO: 968

– The average PDO for an NHL player should hover somewhere around 1000 (or 100%).

– This metric is derived from the fact that the on-ice shooting percentage of your team, added to the sv% of the opposing goalie, should equal to 1.000 (.985 sv% + 0.015 sh%).

– Tyler Bozak’s shooting percentage is sitting at 14.0% for the season, not too far off of his career average of 16%, which indicates that his PDO is suffering due to poor 5 on 5 goaltending from the Maple Leafs, a similar story for MANY Leafs players.

Relative Quality of Competition: 0.471

– Tyler Bozak has the second highest QoC Rel amongst Maple Leafs C, indicating that he is playing against the opposing teams second best lines.

– This is concerning given Bozak’s -31 rating on the season, especially when we take into consideration the fact that Kadri is playing against the oppositions top line and is only a -7.

– Bozak’s possession statistics (-4.3 Corsi Rel) indicate that he is regularly being outmatched by a teams second line. If this continues, that cap hit is going to look much worse in the coming years.



On/Off Ice +/-: -1.63

On Ice +/- per 60 Minutes: -1.71

Off Ice +/- per 60 Minutes: -0.08

– The Toronto Maple Leafs even strength +/- worsened by 1.63 goals per 60 minutes when Tyler Bozak was on the ice as opposed to when he was not.

– Coupling this with the fact that he was playing against the opponents second line, it begins to paint a scary picture about his two-way capabilities.

Face-Off Zone Starts:

Offensive Zone Start: 47.4% of the time. (Finishes there 49.4%)

– Tyler Bozak was used in a slightly more defensive role. This was not due to Bozak’s exceptional possession but probably born out of necessity due to the fact that Nazem Kadri only wins 46% of his face-offs while Bozak controls 52%.

– The Leafs ability to finish play in the offensive zone also likely has something to do with the fact that Bozak controls slightly more than his fair share of face-offs and not the fact that he is driving positive possession.

Top Linemate: Phil Kessel

– Tyler Bozak has spent 79.6% of his time on the ice paired with Phil Kessel, far and away the highest total among any two players on the Maple Leafs. It’s unfathomable that during a lost season, a coach would not have tried these two players with other teammates in order to see if there was any chemistry there. What did they have to lose?

– This does not fail the eye test whatsoever, finally something that the dinosaurs who hate stats and the analytics guys can agree on!

NEW: Relative Performance Analysis

– A new feature in the advanced stats series will be analyzing the performance of a player relative to his peers at his position. The chart below provides ice-time, goals, assists, possession and more, relative to the other NHL players.



Conclusion:

– Tyler Bozak plays with the Maple Leafs top players, against the other teams second line and is still regularly out-possessed and out-scored by the opposition.

– He receives the ice-time of a first line player, has the possession statistics of your average fourth liner and puts up points like a second line player (despite centering Kessel and JVR for ~80% of his TOI), not a glowing endorsement for that $4.2M cap hit going forward.

– Tyler Bozak would have been a well regarded player before advanced analytics dug deeper into a players’ performance but it’s clear with all of the data now at our disposal that he’s in over his head, way over his head.

FUTURE: If Phil Kessel is moved, there is little risk in trading Tyler Bozak and allowing younger players to occupy his minutes. If Kessel isn’t traded, you will have an extremely unhappy ‘star’.

Stay tuned for the next installment of Maple Leafs Advanced Stats Analysis featuring Leafs defenseman Jake Gardiner.

– Brandon Finley

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Thanks to Behind The Net for compiling the Advanced Stats.

Legend:

Corsi Number = (Shots on Target For + Missed Shots For + Blocked Shots Against ) – (Shots on Target Against + Missed Shots Against + Blocked Shots For)

Corsi Relative = (Corsi Number of Player X) – (Corsi of Team with player X not on the ice)

On/Off Ice +/- = (On Ice +/- per 60 minutes) – (Off Ice +/- per 60 minutes)

Corsi Relative QoC = The weighted relative corsi of a player’s opposition