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Memphis Grizzlies @ Boston Celtics (-6.5, ML: -265) – O/U: 197

————–Pace> MEM: 28th – BOS: 18th

OFF Efficiency> MEM: 29th – BOS: 9th

DEF Efficiency> MEM: 1st – BOS: 17th

MEM :

-Chandler Parsons, Deyonta Davis, Brandan Wright (out)

There are only a few guys that I would look to in this matchup, and even more so since the Grizz are on the back-end of a B2B. Given their bleak outlook, I’d limit my exposure to them in this game.

Marc Gasol stands to have the best night of any Grizz player, even though he’s coming off one of his worst performances of the season on Monday night. Typically, the best place to attack the Celtics is down low and Gasol had a solid performance against them last week, as he went for 41.4 FDP. I don’t mind Zach Randolph or JaMychal Green in this spot either.

Mike Conley finds himself in an interesting matchup for this game. Last season, the Celtics allowed the fewest fantasy points to the point guard position, but things are much different this season. In fact, a lot of that has to do with IT2 having the fourth-worst DRPM rating. Below, are some of the recent performances (not listed is Derrick Rose’s 34 FDP performance on Christmas) and maybe some of that DRPM rating has been affected by two meetings with Russell Westbrook.

BOS :

The Celtics have a fully healthy squad for this game, and it doesn’t help matters that they have to go against the league’s top defense. However, the Celtics outlook looks much better for this game and that would be the ideal side to go with. I don’t think you necessarily need to force any Celtics into your lineup but there are some decent matchups to look at.

The price tag on Isaiah Thomas has come down a couple notches and he’s still been a serviceable player since returning from injury, averaging 42.3 FDP in those six games. One of those six games was against the Grizzlies, and IT2 put up 61.6 FDP against them- no other point guard has eclipsed 30 FDP against the Grizz in the month of December.

Al Horford double-doubled in that previous meeting, but I wouldn’t recommend pitting him up against Gasol. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are both risky plays here as well.

Marcus Smart has been incredibly productive lately and if this game does end up being over early then he could pick up some additional minutes. The Celtics’ anchor of the bench has been playing minutes in the mid-20s and he works as a great salary-saving play on a four-game slate.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-2, ML: -130) @ Miami Heat – O/U: 205.5

————-Pace> OKC: 5th – MIA: 25th

OFF Efficiency> OKC: 15th – MIA: 24th

DEF Efficiency> OKC: 10th – MIA: 11th

OKC :

-Victor Oladipo (out)

The price tag on Russell Westbrook has now gone up to a season-high $13000 on FanDuel and that makes it tough to build a lineup around him going forward. If you begin your lineup with him at this current price, you are relegated to $5875 per player. On a four-game slate, you are taking a huge risk fading a player like Westbrook, who is capable of putting up 60-70 fantasy points on any given night.

As for the the rest of OKC, it’s always a decent-sized risk but Steven Adams should be solid tonight, and Enes Kanter has been playing lights out recently. Andre Roberson works as a salary-saver here too.

MIA :

-Josh McRoberts, Dion Waiters (out)

-Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder (questionable)

We’ll likely see heavy ownership on Tyler Johnson tonight if Goran Dragic isn’t able to play. Given all of the injuries to this Heat roster, you’ll likely see TJ and Josh Richardson play a ridiculous number of minutes in the backcourt. It’s unfortunate that we have Q-tags on three members of their backcourt, but it’s certainly a situation to monitor.

With all of the hoopla focused on value players from the Heat, it’s possible that Hassan Whiteside could go overlooked in this mess. He’ll typically produce better with Dragic in the lineup, but OKC does give up the most PPG inside the paint…that honor kind of flip-flops on a game-by-game basis with the Lakers.

Houston Rockets (-6, ML: -230) @ Dallas Mavericks – O/U: 210

————-Pace> HOU: 9th – DAL: 30th

OFF Efficiency> HOU: 3rd – DAL: 27th

DEF Efficiency> HOU: 19th – DAL: 21st

HOU :

-Clint Capela (out)

-Patrick Beverley (questionable)

James Harden hasn’t exceeded expectations at his current price too often against the Mavericks, but I’m not too worried about it tonight. Patrick Beverley has been listed as questionable for this game and if he is out then Harden will have to log a ridiculous number of minutes. The Mavericks are a much worse defensive team with Andrew Bogut out of the lineup; it doesn’t look like he’ll play so I have no fear for The Beard.

We need to save money somewhere if we’re going to be successful tonight, so guys like Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon are all firmly in play. Again, the return of Bogut would be bad for the Rockets but these are still some of the better areas to target. For ultimate savings, I do like Montrezl Harrell because you’ll like see the minutes for Nene Hilario get somewhat restricted on the back-end of a B2B.

DAL :

-JJ Barea (out)

-Andrew Bogut (questionable)

I guess it’s no secret that the Mavs offense started clicking at around the same time Deron Williams got his act together. He’s averaged 32.4 FPD over his last six and the price tag has gone up as a result, but if there is no Beverley for the Rockets there is little/no resistance for D-Will.

Harrison Barnes has notched at least 30 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. He gets a tremendous matchup tonight, but you probably won’t be able to afford him if you have all of the high-priced studs in your lineup. If you choose to go an alternate route with lineup construction, Barnes should be a staple in that instance.

I don’t mind guys like Wesley Matthews and Dwight Powell for value. They have both faltered a couple of times recently, but on a four-game slate, we can’t be too picky.

Utah Jazz (-4.5, ML: -200) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 204.5

————-Pace> UTA: 29th – LAL: 4th

OFF Efficiency> UTA: 8th – LAL: 19th

DEF Efficiency> UTA: 4th – LAL: 29th

UTA :

-George Hill, Dante Exum, Alec Burks (out)

This should be a great spot for more than a few of these Jazz players since they have a great matchup and they haven’t played since the 23rd.

First and foremost, Rudy Gobert should do massive amounts of damage in the paint- I have talked about the Lakers getting dominated in the paint at great length this season. No reason why we should hop off this train now. Gobert is pretty damn good in his own right, putting up at least 31 fantasy points in his last 10 games.

Gordon Hayward won’t fit into most people’s lineups, but he probably should be. Aside from the bludgeoning in Oakland last week, Hayward has been solid of late and he gets a fantastic matchup.

For ultimate savings, we should be looking at Shelvin Mack, who has played 34 minutes in each of his last two games and he’s still priced way too cheap. Joe Ingles is also in play…he’s had at least 23 FDP and played at least 27 minutes in his last three games.

LAL :

-Larry Nance Jr (out)

-Tarik Black, Jose Calderon (questionable)

I don’t like pitting players up against the Jazz too often, but on a four-game slate we might as well take a look.

Lou Williams is my go-to guy more often than not from the Lakers, but that decision isn’t likely to make me do backflips tonight. The interesting plays to me are Luol Deng, Julius Randle and Brandon Ingram, who are both listed as power forwards now on FanDuel. Deng remains red-hot and he’s exceeded 5x value in five-straight games. Randle had an outstanding game on Christmas and he’ll look to capitalize off that performance, while Ingram is still very cheap and playing a ton of minutes.

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