The population is shrinking in more than a dozen neighbourhoods in the immediate vicinity of the planned one-stop Scarborough subway extension, raising fresh concerns about the viability of the $3.2-billion transit project.

According to a Star analysis of 2016 census data released on Wednesday, of 31 census tracts surrounding the planned location for the subway station at Scarborough Town Centre, the population of 18 declined over the previous five years.

Some tracts, including the one in which the station will be built, saw robust growth percentages in the double digits, and the population of Scarborough Centre, the federal riding that covers the area, grew by 3.5 per cent. But in the majority of nearby tracts the population fell, by between 1.4 per cent and 6.3 per cent.

Eric Miller, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Transportation Engineering Research Group, warned that if the trend continued it could jeopardize the extension of the Line 2 (Bloor-Danforth) subway.

“Any subway station depends on two things: the people that are within the close distance to it that can maybe walk or take a very short bus ride, and then people who are coming in from further afield to use it,” Miller said.

“If in fact that (local) growth doesn’t materialize, that could be a problem.”

The city’s chief planner said she was unconcerned by declining growth in pockets around the subway stop.

Jennifer Keesmaat said city staff are working on a complete overhaul of the Scarborough centre neighbourhood that will transform it an urban centre fertile for commercial and residential growth. The Scarborough Centre master plan, which is still in draft form, calls for narrower pedestrian-friendly streets, generous landscaping and smaller city blocks, which would be attractive to developers.

“The Scarborough subway is not based on short-term growth, it’s based on a long-term vision to turn the Scarborough centre into something fundamentally different than what it is today,” Keesmaat said, adding that she wouldn’t find it troublesome if the population in nearby areas continued to decline for a few years. “The subway alone isn’t enough to create an urban place.”

Councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker, a vocal proponent of the subway extension, argued that the transit stop will serve a much greater population than the neighbourhoods directly surrounding it.

“I have no concerns at all about the viability of the subway station because the subway station isn’t just about a circle or a bull's-eye around the station,” said De Baeremaeker (Ward 38, Scarborough Centre). He predicted that the stop would be a “feeder station” for hundreds of thousands of residents in northeast Scarborough and Markham.

A preliminary business case prepared by city planning staff projected that the subway stop would attract 4,500 new transit riders.

De Baremaeker also argued that the station would serve as a catalyst for growth. The business case said it would be possible to build about 12,500 residential units within half a kilometre of the subway stop.

“I’ve talked to condo developers and I’ve talked to office tower developers who have said, once the subway gets here, then we can sell condos, then we can sell office towers,” De Baremaeker said.

That sentiment was echoed by Mayor John Tory, who has defended the subway plan despite ballooning costs and questions about low ridership.

“We have to promote growth in other parts of the city,” Tory’s spokesperson said in an email. “It's no surprise there's been negative population growth around the Scarborough Town Centre — it's poorly served by transit, especially higher-order transit.”

Matti Siemiatycki, an associate professor at U of T’s geography and planning department, cautioned against relying on the subway extension to spur growth, especially because the plan has been whittled down from its original three-stop design to a single station connected to the closest stop by a 6-kilometre tunnel.

“The census is showing that around transit stations are places where growth takes place,” he said. “And with the current Scarborough subway plan, it’s only one stop, so there’s going to be less locations that can improve (transit) accessibility, and then by extension, perhaps less potential for redevelopment.”

He suggested the original plan for a seven-stop LRT, which council rejected again last July, would have afforded more opportunities for growth.

Siemiatycki also questioned whether by spending billions of dollars on a single subway stop in Scarborough the city is striking the right balance between trying to use transit as a catalyst for redevelopment and serving existing, pressing transit needs.

Some waterfront neighbourhoods saw population growths as high as 97.2 per cent over five years, but plans for a Waterfront LRT are gathering dust with no funding or timeline for completion.

“The key with all of our transit investments is using evidence to make decisions, and we’ve struggled with that in this region,” Siemiatycki said. “Maybe the 2016 census provides another opportunity to go back to the numbers … and see if (the Scarborough subway extension) really makes sense in that location, and with only one stop.”

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

MORE ON THESTAR.COM

Canada’s 2016 census shows growth rate of new dwellings slowing down

Census shows big population gains in Toronto, Milton and Brampton

Immigration fuels Canada’s population growth of 1.7 million in five years: latest census

Read more about: