With the first phase of elections over in 73 seats of 15 districts in Uttar Pradesh, speculations have started on which party will be victorious. So far, the appeal made by Muslim clerics - the Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid in Delhi and Maulana Kalbe Jawad, besides the AMU Students Union, in favor of the BSP appears to have been a boon for the BJP. Even those Muslims who were angry with the BSP, were seen voting in favor of the party, giving the BJP an added advantage against the SP-Congress coalition.

At present, the local leaders of all parties are busy assessing the situation and speculating about the results on March 11.

Social activist Vijay Upadhyay told India Today that after the first phase of elections, the BJP camp in the Braj region is overjoyed while the faces of the supporters of other parties clearly indicate that the first phase of polling didn't go in their favor. Upadhyay said that at the beginning of the election process, the BJP was worried that the business community, which is the traditional vote bank of the party, was angry with the party due to demonetisation as this step by Modi had adversely affected the businesses, but after the first phase of polls, this fear has evaporated and the party workers are filled with energy, confident of their victory.

Also read: Uttar Pradesh polls: Why Priyanka may curtail her role in Amethi, Raebareli

RLD'S DISTANCE FROM SP-CONGRESS ALLIANCE

The way RLD created distance from the SP-Congress alliance, made the Jat community angry and probably keeping this anger in mind, the BJP's star campaigners had begun polarising the Hindu voters towards the party a week before the elections. Not just that, but the BJP's manifesto had also tried to gain the female votes by promising to setup "anti-romeo" squads, which was also publicized as an anti-Muslim move by a section of the media, polarizing more Hindu votes towards the BJP.EVE TEASING

PM Modi himself, as well as the BJP president Amit Shah made eve-teasing an issue in their public rallies, which resulted in a lot of voters who were angry with the BJP post-demonetisation, returning to the party, creating an almost unipolar Hindu vote-bank in the party's favor. The appeal made by the Muslim clerics in favor of the BSP also helped in this polarization of Hindu votes. Similarly, the large number of Muslim candidates fielded by both the SP and the BSP became a major issue for the Hindu voters, many of whom voted for BJP in protest of the fielding of so many Muslim candidates.

Most of the Jat voters in Agra, Aligarh, Meerut and Saharanpur regions had forgotten their anger against the BJP by the time they reached the polling booths and cast their votes in favour of the BJP, although quite a few of them also voted for the RLD, but that did not make a very big dent in the BJP's vote base.

The first phase of polling also showed that despite BSP Supremo Mayawati's efforts, the Muslim voters did not vote en-masse for the BSP and major section of the Muslims were still leaning towards the SP-Congress coalition. In the districts around the Agra division, the indications went in the coalition's favor, although at places where the BSP candidate appeared stronger than the coalition candidate, the Muslim votes went in his favor.In quite a surprising development, quite a number of BSP candidates were also successful in getting Dalit votes, which is rings alarm bells for the future of Mayawati and BSP although it remains to be seen which way the political breeze blows in the remaining six phases of elections.

Also Watch: India Today-Axis Opinion Poll for Uttar Pradesh: BJP ahead in UP on back of OBC support