September 21, 2015

The Westpac-McDermott Miller consumer confidence indicator fell from the 113.0 points recorded in Q2 to 106.0 points in Q3 2015. The reading marked a three-year low. As a result, the index fell closer to the 100-point threshold that indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists.



The deterioration in Q3 reflected that consumers assessed both present and future economic conditions as worse than they did in the previous quarter. As a consequence, all of the five sub-categories of the index deteriorated in Q3. According to Westpac, “the last three months have been a rough ride for the economy. Fonterra has revised down its milk price forecast to below $4/kg. It’s become increasingly clear that the Canterbury rebuild has reached a peak. And concerns around the health of the Chinese economy have sent shock waves through global share markets.”

FocusEconomics Consensus forecast participants expect private consumption to expand 3.1% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees private consumption increasing 2.4%.