Having begun the year in a highly promising position in Group D, Ireland are now in a situation where even two wins from their final two games may not guarantee a play-off berth.

The standard gruff response of the Irish football fan to these kind of calculations is to insist that we should look after ourselves and let the chips fall where they may.

But with Ireland's hopes of prolonging their interest in the World Cup no longer entirely in their hands, it is inevitable that fans will be casting a nervous eye across at other groups.

Martin O'Neill plaintively insisted today that Ireland could consider themselves desperately unlucky if six points from the two upcoming games fails to earn a playoff spot.

However, close study of the other groups reveals that this is a real danger.

What needs to happen for Ireland to earn a playoff spot?

The basic ground rules, to begin.

Eight of the nine second placed teams in the UEFA qualifiers will progress to the November play-offs. The ninth ranked team - that is the team with the lowest points tally - will be eliminated.

As in other campaigns, results against the bottom placed team in each group are not taken into consideration.

Wins over Moldova and Wales will leave Ireland sitting on 19 points and guarantee us second place in the Group D table at least.

With Moldova destined to finish bottom of Group D, this means that six points will be chalked off our total for the purposes of the second place battle.

Thus, a win in Dublin on Friday and in Cardiff on Monday will leave us with 13 points in the second place table.

Below is the ranking of second placed teams as it stands with two games remaining in qualifying. Ireland will leapfrog Wales and be pitched into the reckoning should they win both games.

Courtesy of Wikipedia

As it stands, Ireland are sitting on 10 points for the purposes of the second place rankings. Worryingly, our goal difference is only +1, the 3-1 win over bottom placed Moldova in October 2016 having been excluded from consideration.

While Ireland need a win over Moldova on Friday to realistically keep alive their chances of finishing second in Group D, this result will not count towards our tally in this runners up table.

Ireland will only need to finish above one of the second placed sides to gain a play-off spot.

Will 13 points in this table be enough to prevent us slipping into 9th position?

Let's examiner the lie of the land in the other groups, beginning with the write-offs.

The write-offs

Group B and Group G: Dead in the water

Portugal (Group B) already have too many points for us to catch them and Italy (Group G) only need one point and have games against Macedonia and Albania.

The long-shots

Group I: Impossibly complex

Would do Ireland no harm if Turkey beat Iceland this week...

Running through the possible permutations in Group I would make Garry Kasparov's head spin but suffice to say the likeliest scenario that could result in Ireland leaping above the eventual second placed team would be if Turkey were to beat Iceland on Friday - ideally by more than one goal - and were then held to a draw by Finland in Turku on Monday.

Not especially plausible.

Remarkably, two points separate the top four sides, Croatia, Iceland, Turkey and Ukraine.

Group A: Hoping Luxembourg can keep the score down (highly unlikely)

A stretch this one...

Group A is slightly complicated by the uncertainty over which of Belarus or Luxembourg will finish last, an outcome which could have implications for a potential goal difference tussle between Ireland and Sweden or Ireland and the Netherlands.

If Sweden win heavily against Luxembourg on Saturday evening, then it will be difficult to see how Ireland can overhaul them in the runners-up table.

The Swedes only won 1-0 in Luxembourg last October. A one-goal victory in Solna at the weekend would leave their goal difference at +4 in the runners-up table.

Thereafter a two-goal win for the Dutch against Sweden in the final game in Amsterdam would not be enough to lift the hosts into second place but would leave Sweden at +2 in goal difference terms in the runners-up table.

Group C: Longish shot...

Possibilities if Northern Ireland were hammered at Windsor Park

Northern Ireland (Group C) need to claim a point from their two remaining games against Germany and Norway (not a guarantee) but they are +6 ahead of Ireland on goal difference. Two defeats for Northern Ireland, combined with two wins for Ireland could plausibly eradicate this difference.

Our Northern neighbours are catchable but this is dependant on them losing to a Norway side whose stock in international football has collapsed dramatically since the 1990s.

Group E: Montenegro or Denmark?

In Group E, things could hardly be tighter. Both Montenegro and Denmark sit on 16 points with identical goal difference, having scored the same number of goals.

The former are currently ahead of the latter as a result of having won 1-0 in Copenhagen last October. The pair meet in Podgorica on Thursday.

It's probably in Ireland's interest that Montenegro rather than Denmark should win that game as the latter would have a slightly stronger goal difference for the purposes of the second placed table (the Danes beat last placed Kazakhstan by a smaller aggregate tally than Montenegro).

Denmark are at home to Romania in the final game, while Montenegro travel to Warsaw to play top placed Poland.

A narrow win for Montenegro at home to the Danes on Thursday followed by a defeat away to Poland would potentially place Ireland ahead of their rivals on goal difference in the battle for second place (again, all of which is contingent on Ireland beating Moldova and Wales).

However, in this scenario, Denmark could re-take second place on goal difference with a home win over Romania on Sunday evening.

This would leave Denmark on 13 points in the above table. At present, they are ahead of Ireland in the second placed battle on goal difference (+5 as opposed to +1).

The real possibilities

Group F: The spirit of Gary Mackay

Chris Martin celebrating after scoring Scotland's winner against Slovenia

When it comes to Group F, we have to hope the spirit of Gary Mackay still lives in the hearts of Scots everywhere... at least on Thursday night.

First up, we need Scotland to beat Slovakia in Hampden in their penultimate game this Thursday.

It would also help greatly if England (already more or less qualified) disposed of Slovenia on the same night.

Crucially then, we need Slovenia to either beat Scotland or hold them to a draw in the final game. The Slovaks would be stuck on 12 points in the above runners-up table and would be unable to add to that tally no matter how much they pummel bottom-placed Malta in the final game.

Ireland, with 13 points in the bag, thanks to their efforts in Dublin and Cardiff would be safely in the play-offs.

Group H: Pinning our hopes on Cyprus and Belgium

The Cyprus players celebrating their win over Bosnia. Ireland need them to upset Greece..

And so, we turn to Group H, the only group which boasts a second placed team currently below Ireland in the runners-up table. (Remember third-placed Ireland would currently have 10 points on the runners-up table at top of the article, were they currently in second spot.)

Unfortunately, while Bosnia & Herzegovina are second in the Group H table on 14 points, they could quite easily be overhauled by Greece.

While Greece are behind Bosnia in Group H, they are placed ahead of Ireland in the runners-up table, sitting on 10 points with a goal difference of +3.

Irish supporters will need to keep a close eye on the Group H games on Saturday.

Bosnia host already-qualified Belgium in Sarajevo, while Greece make the short jaunt across to Nicosia to play Cyprus.

The Belgians, already home and dry, could potentially be unmotivated but it is still a tough ask for the Bosnians to beat them.

If the Cypriots can hold Greece to a draw, then the Greeks will be stuck on 11 points in the runners-up table and be unable to add to this tally even should they hammer Gibraltar in the final game.

Draws for Bosnia and Greece in both those games will simplify matters for Ireland. It will mean that a win in Cardiff will secure Martin O'Neill's troops a play-off spot.

The shopping list of results Ireland want in other groups (in order of priority and likelihood)

Group H

Bosnia v Belgium (away win or draw)

Cyprus v Greece (draw or home win)

Result: Neither Greece nor Bosnia would be able to reach 13 points in runners up table

Group I

Scotland v Slovakia (home win)

England v Slovenia (home win)

Slovenia v Scotland (home win or draw)

Result: Scotland, Slovenia and Slovakia would fall short of 13 points tally



Group E

Montenegro v Denmark (narrow home win)

Poland v Montenegro (comprehensive home win)

Denmark v Romania (away win or draw)

Result: Montenegro would potentially fall behind Ireland on goal difference; Denmark wouldn't reach the 13-point tally on goal difference

Group C

Northern Ireland v Germany (very heavy away win)

Norway v Northern Ireland (home win)

Result: Northern Ireland would remain stuck on 13 points in runners up table would a much poorer goal difference

Group A

Sweden v Luxembourg (ideally an away win or draw but in reality a one goal home win)

Holland v Sweden (two goal home win)

Result: Slight possibility that Ireland could rise above the Swedes on goal difference