Conflict in the Democratic Party over Israel has long revolved around symbolic issues, such as the drama around how many elected officials would show up to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress earlier this month. A primary in Maryland for an open Senate seat could now bring many of these tensions out into the open.

The impending retirement of the stalwart Democrat Barbara Mikulski means Maryland has only its second open Senate seat in three decades. There is no clear successor.

So far, two Democratic members of Congress from suburban Washington, Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards, have announced their candidacy. Both have very liberal records and are well liked by progressive groups. However, there is one distinct policy difference between the two of them: their views on US policy in the Middle East. And this difference could doom Edwards on election day.

Van Hollen’s views on the Middle East peace process between Israel and the Palestinians are rather mainstream. A former staffer on the Senate foreign relations committee, Van Hollen has long been viewed warmly by Jewish Democrats in Maryland. He was described to the Guardian as “a classic progressive Democrat who was not in lock step with AIPAC [American Israel Public Affairs Committee] but very much within their space”.

In contrast, Edwards has long been close to J Street, the leftwing Jewish group which takes a very dovish view of the peace process, and has long voted against efforts toughen sanctions on Iran and its nuclear programme. In 2013, she was one of only 20 members of Congress to vote against the Nuclear Iran Prevention Act, a bipartisan bill which contained measures to strengthen sanctions.



She also was one of 21 members to vote present on a 2009 resolution that recognized Israel’s right to defend itself against attacks from Gaza. The resolution, co-sponsored by Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner, passed by a margin of 390-5.

Despite those votes, Edwards is not anti-Israel. Instead, one pro-Israel Democratic operative took pains to tell the Guardian: “I’m going to say she’s not pro-Israel.” He noted that votes in Congress on the Middle East can be defined in tiers and noted that Edwards is not in the first tier like Democratic representative Keith Ellison, from Minnesota, or former representative Jim Moran of Virginia, who were among the eight congressmen to vote against funding for Iron Dome, the Israeli missile defense system which protects the country against rockets launched by terrorist groups like Hamas from the Gaza Strip.

However, the operative did place Edwards among the least supportive 10% of the Democratic caucus and noted that she has shown a “tone deafness” on the issue of Israel at times. He noted that Edwards was “the type of candidate J Street was founded for”, giving the group an opportunity to try to plant its flag and establish its relevance. The operative also pointed out that while J Street did back the North Carolina Republican Walter Jones when he faced a primary on foreign policy issues, this represents a far bigger challenge in an open seat and a statewide race.

Edwards may face opposition from outside groups as well. The Guardian has learned that the Emergency Committee for Israel, a neoconservative group, is looking closely at the race and going after Edwards.

Edwards’s candidacy will likely not fare well with Baltimore’s Jewish community, which Art Abramson, the executive director of the Baltimore Jewish Council, noted is “a community that is center-right [on Israel] and a community where Israel is a very important if not the most important factor on how they vote”.

Abramson noted that demographically, Baltimore’s Jewish community is around 100,000 strong and turns out to vote at a rate of roughly 80%. He also pointed out that while Jews in the area “are heavily registered Democratic”, the community also has the largest percentage of Orthodox Jews in the country. In Maryland’s last competitive Democratic primary for the US Senate, in 2006, it was these voters who helped carry then Representative Ben Cardin to a narrow victory over former Representative Kweisi Mfume.

The electoral math in the race to replace Mikulski will be challenging for Edwards regardless of her views on Middle East, even if no other candidate jumps in. (Several Baltimore-area congressmen, like representatives Elijah Cummings and Dutch Ruppersberger, have also been considering a run.) Van Hollen has major institutional advantages, including the support of Senate minority leader Harry Reid and every elected official in local government in his home base of Montgomery County. Furthermore, Van Hollen has long been considered a protégé of both House minority leader Nancy Pelosi and House minority whip Steny Hoyer, while Edwards is not considered to be terribly popular with her colleagues (although she does have the backing of Emily’s List).

One veteran Maryland elected official told the Guardian he thought Edwards would have “difficulty breaking out of her base” in Prince George’s County and among progressive whites. However, he noted that Edwards could build support in predominantly African-American Baltimore if she can establish her credibility as a strong, viable candidate who won’t be the cause of “embarrassment”.

But while biography and endorsements are always important, the key policy difference between the two liberal Democrats is still on Israel and the Middle East. Much of the race will depend on whether Edwards can successfully appeal to voters who are significantly more hawkish than she is.

Maryland’s Democratic primary for Senate will be held on 26 April 2016.