After coming to power in 16 of the 29 states covering more than 60 per cent of the population, BJP's next big challenge is winning two states - West Bengal and Kerala.

Winning Opposition-ruled states such as Odisha, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka may not be a far cry. Also, retaining power in states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh may not be tough.

However, Kerala and West Bengal are two states where BJP hopes to wrest power from its rivals but it has to focus all its energy as in Assam. Between the two states, West Bengal presents a brighter picture both for 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly elections.

In Kerala, BJP polled just 4.75 per cent of votes in the 2006 Assembly elections, 6.03 per cent in 2011 and 10.6 per cent in the 2016 elections. It opened its account for the first time by winning one seat in the 2016 Assembly elections and came second on seven of the total 140 Assembly seats.

In West Bengal, BJP bagged three seats in the 2016 Assembly elections as against just one which it had won in the 2011 polls. In 2011, BJP had garnered about 4 per cent votes which increased to 10.2 per cent vote share in 2016.

A jump of more than 20 per cent vote share in both the states will get translated into seats, which is quite achievable in the next Assembly elections.

Similar was the situation in Assam where BJP had got above 10 per cent votes in 2011 and it formed the government in 2016.

Hence, BJP is hopeful of forming government, at least in West Bengal, in the next elections in 2021.

In the Trinamool Congress' wave in 2016 Assembly polls, only BJP's vote share had increased. Otherwise, the vote percentage of both the Congress and the Left only decreased. This has ignited hope for BJP in West Bengal.

BJP'S PROGRESS

BJP had garnered 17.5 per cent votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. This dipped 10.2 per cent in the 2016 Assembly polls. Despite this setback, BJP won three seats for the first time in the state. In 2016 polls, BJP not only fetched about 56 lakh votes, as against 19.5 lakh in 2011, it also made its presence felt in 262 out of 294 Assembly segments by polling more than 10,000 votes.

In 2014, BJP believes it had secured 17 per cent votes because of the Narendra Modi wave across the country. It did not have any organisational base then. In 2016, there was no such wave. What it achieved was because of the organisational strength.

More than winning three seats, the party made its presence felt in maximum seats and secured second position in seven seats. It secured between 20,000 and 30,000 votes in 66 seats, 30,000 and 40,000 votes in 16 seats and between 40,000 and 50,000 votes in six seats.

BJP was instrumental in the defeat of 70 candidates of Congress and the Left by eating into their vote share and garnering about 5,000 to 10,000 votes.This, BJP believes, is a perfect setting for it in the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly polls.

Based on this setting, it has launched a multi-pronged strategy.

1. STRENGTHENING OF ORGANISATION

For BJP, the key to its success in any state is its organisational strength. To that end, it is focusing on expanding its cadre at the booth level.

On April 25, BJP president Amit Shah launched 15-day 'Vistar Yatra' from Naxalbari in West Bengal to expand the party's base in the state. He visited a tribal's house and knocked door-to-door as part of an intensive booth-level mass contact programme in the cradle of the 50-year-old Maoist movement. He also held a meeting of party workers in booth number 93 of the Naxalbari Assembly constituency.

Amit Shah went to Mamata Banerjee's Bhawanipur constituency in Kolkata on April 26 and launched a campaign for the party to visit booths and houses across the state. At booth number 269, he held a meeting with local BJP workers and later addressed them from a makeshift dais. "The BJP rules 70 per cent of the country, but I think unless you form a government in West Bengal, the mission 'Ebaar Bangla' will not be completed," he said.

2. ATTACKING MAMATA BANERJEE

BJP is harping on the chit fund scams like Narada, Sarada and Rose Valley and law and order problems. With senior Trinamool Congress leaders Sudip Banerjee, Tapas Pal behind bars, BJP will keep on highlighting the corruption by the ruling party during Mamata Banerjee's regime.

Law and order problem is another area which is finding mention prominently in BJP leaders' rallies and public meetings.

3. DEVELOPMENTAL ISSUES

BJP is trying to corner the Mamata Banerjee government on the alleged lack of development in the state and misuse or lack of use of the Central funds. Amit Shah has already said the 13th Finance Commission allotted Rs 103,539 crore while the 14th Finance Commission under Narendra Modi's government allotted nearly triple the amount to Rs 2,89,942 crore to West Bengal.

He said while Mamata Banerjee persistently complained of economic deprivation by the Centre, the State Government's record on developmental front was dismal. He said while the Left Front government left a loan burden of Rs 1.92 lakh crore after 34 years of its rule, under Banerjee's dispensation the burden has shot up to a whopping Rs 3.50 lakh crore in six years.

However, he said, the central funds do not reach people. "After Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa, our aim is to rule Bengal. Ebar Bangla. Ab Ki Baar Bhajapa Sarkar in Bangla," Shah said.

He pointed out that West Bengal used to contribute at least 25 per cent share in India's growth. It has now reached around a meagre 4 per cent. Similarly, Bengal's share in bank deposits was 18 per cent earlier. It dipped to 12.8 per cent during the Left regime and under Mamata, it nose-dived to all time low of 6.3 per cent.

He also said that Bengal's share in the country's development at the time of independence was 25 per cent. It is 4 per cent now. In bank deposits, Bengal's share was 18 per cent, which came down to 12.8 per cent during the Left Front rule. It is now 6.3 per cent, he pointed out.

4. POLARISATION

As in Assam, BJP would also rake up the alleged minority appeasement at the cost of sidelining the majority community. He did not mince his words while spelling out his priority. Asked about communal tension in the state, Shah said it was largely due to the policies of appeasement of Muslims by the Banerjee government. Appeasement, according to Shah, has created a volatile communal situation in Bengal.

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