How have the finalists of IEM Katowice performed on all maps?

The semifinals of today have decided the two teams that will advance to the grand finals that will be played out in the Spodek Arena in Katowice. Since the final will be a B05, at least three out of the seven maps will be played tomorrow and if we are lucky in being presented a really close match, then even five will be shown. In order to calculate the chances that both teams have, we will take a close look at how the two opponents have performed on each and every map and whether it is likely that we will see a map on stage.

Not only the matches that were played within the group will be taken into account, but also all additional offline matches the teams have had in 2016 so far, which include the Starladder Finals, DreamHack Leipzig and IEM Expo Barcelona.

The first contender for the upcoming match is fnatic, a team that has had some struggles in the end of the last year. But starting with a crucial roster change – removing Markus “pronax” Wallsten in favor of Dennis “dennis” Edman – they were able to boost themselves even beyond the status they had in the middle of last year. Neither Na’Vi, EnVyUs nor Astralis were able to touch them in a strong, convincing fashion since they have not dropped a B03 so far since the ESEA Pro League Finals in December. Actually fnatic have in total just lost 5 maps over the course of 2016 so far with 26 maps going in their favor, statistics that prove they are in a shape that is stronger than ever.

The second contender has been a real upcomer and now holds a safe spot within the top five of the world ranking. Luminosity Gaming have qualified directly into the semifinals due to their first place finish within the group stages. Already then they were able to win their matchup against fnatic which nobody else was able to, so judging from their performance within this particular tournament solely, they are probably the best team to try to take out the world’s number one. Gabriel “Fallen” Toledo has been leading the team past so many strong times in recent time that it is highly viable to see them bring the upset on stage in hindering fnatic from getting a sixth consecutive tournament win.

de_dust2

Stats for fnatic: 2-0 at Katowice 6-0 in 2016 Stats for Luminosity: 0-0 at Katowice 0-0 in 2016



Will we be seeing the map in the finals?

Fnatic have had an undefeated run on this map so far in 2016, but it is obvious that Luminosity have at least with their new lineup pretty much avoided this map. This is one candidate to be vetoed by the Brazilians, even more since fnatic have been so overly dominant on it in recent time. Just shortly after their roster change LG had a game on it versus Natus Vincere which went 16-5 against their favor and since they have never even touched it for so long, it might be a hot contender in terms of vetoing. If it were to go through as a map for the finals, Luminosity can only hope to have it be played at the very end so that they hopefully don't even have to face it.

de_cache

Stats for fnatic: 1-1 at Katowice 4-1 in 2016 Stats for Luminosity: 0-0 at Katowice 1-1 in 2016



Will we be seeing the map in the finals?

The semi finals of yesterday have shown that fnatic have had issues dealing with a strong terrorist approach on their CT side, but LG have not really competed on Cache. At least some matches have been fought there on the Luminosity side, a 16-5 against FaZe, but it really comes down to how they did against fnatic on that map, and there is a match from the StarLadder StarSeries offline finals that went down 16-7 in favor of the Swedes. So if it were to be added to the B05 then this might potentially be an win for fnatic, depending on how strong LG are set up on this map despite trying to not play it. Fnatic's issues on the CT side however might be a weakness to exploit, since LG are generally considered to be a strong T side team. This could - or should - be a map win for Luminosity if they were to grab a VOD of yesterday's match.

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Stats for fnatic: 0-0 at Katowice 0-1 in 2016 Stats for Luminosity: 1-1 at Katowice 3-2 in 2016



Will we be seeing the map in the finals?

Probably not, and there are three reasons for this, the first being that fnatic - as seen above - are not that strong and present on this map. Add this to the fact that their only match on it was against Luminosity, a 16-6 obliteration in a B03 that fnatic actually had in hand and consider that this is the only weak spot within fnatic's map pool. No reason to put it in and unless fnatic want to experiment in the finals of a big tournament or have something special prepared there is just no reason not to veto it out.

de_cbble

Stats for fnatic: 0-0 at Katowice 3-0 in 2016 Stats for Luminosity: 1-0 at Katowice 1-1 in 2016



Will we be seeing the map in the finals?

Luminosity have not really had a stellar showing on this map so far, their 16-14 win against mousesports in the group stages should not be a considered a strong performance. Fnatic are really good at containing the drop zone, which is an integral part of the map and key to the T side executions as it is both needed to get onto B safely as well as to catch the CTs off guard when trying to enter A site. This can be attributed to Jesper "JW" Wecksell and his shotgun. All in all this should be a map to win for fnatic since they have proven that they are really good at locking the sites down despite the heavy advantage of the terrorists onto B. Their ability to read their opponents well is coming into play really handily, as they can stack bombsites if they know an attack is coming which is just crucial on a map that is usually played very B-focused. Needless to say that their two AWPers, Olof "olofmeister" Kajbjer and JW can set up a nice double-AWP on both sites.

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Stats for fnatic: 1-0 at Katowice 3-0 in 2016 Stats for Luminosity: 1-0 at Katowice 3-0 in 2016



Will we be seeing the map in the finals?

This map will definitely have its fair share of on-air-time in the finals as it is a map that both teams really like to play and have a certain strength on. In fact it has been played in the semi finals in which fnatic had to face Astralis, a team that was once considered to be the best on that map. Luminosity were present on it as well and despite the crazy boosts that Natus Vincere brought up they were able to close it out in overtime. But fnatic themselves have these boosts going for them which means that they have put effort in working out this map. They crushed Astralis on this map so convincingly that this becomes yet again another strong map to potentially add to fnatic's wins in this B05 series.

Both teams have not been matched up against on this map so far, every time it was actually fnatic removing the map from the pool, but after their mistake of picking Mirage over Overpass at the Faceit S3 finals against LG they will surely favor it over that map and if you put both wins that the two contenders have had this tournament on Overpass (22-19 for LG and 16-6 for fnatic) against each other then it is obvious who to favor.

de_train

Stats for fnatic: 1-0 at Katowice 2-2 in 2016 Stats for Luminosity: 0-0 at Katowice 5-1 in 2016



Will we be seeing the map in the finals?

Most definitely. Fnatic have no reason to rule it out as Mirage is their number one choice to get rid of and Luminosity have been very strong on it in recent time, so no reason at all to veto it. Back in 2015, when the Luminosity roster was still new, the teams fought it off against each other and Luminosity made a very convincing win (16-9) against their opponents. It has been the playground for Lincoln "fnx" Lau recently and since it is a sniper-heavy map, Fallen can really make an impact. LG in general is a good T side team and able to get more than the usual amount of rounds which is highly beneficial on a map that is so much centered around the counter-terrorists. Considering that the majority of their map wins on Train have been very convincing this map does actually favor the Brazilians.

de_inferno

Stats for fnatic: 3-1 at Katowice 11-2 in 2016 Stats for Luminosity: 3-0 at Katowice 4-2 in 2016



Will we be seeing the map in the finals?

This map will be played out with a 110% probability. Both teams have a variety of reasons to willingly compete on Inferno. It has been the single best map for fnatic this year and the Swedish players are really well trained at running down the clock of the terrorists by throwing smokes from across the map. Luminosity have not been as present on this map as fnatic, but there is one single thing that really makes this map eligible and interesting to play for them. In the group stages they had one BO1 against fnatic which was on Inferno, and it was a win. Fnatic later went on to secure themselves another win on this map against Astralis, but it was a more or less shaky Danish squad they were facing. Nonetheless posivite signs that should warn Luminosity not to believe they would have it in their pockets just as in the group stages.

KRiMZ is the prime player to look out for at the B bomb site as he - whenever needed - holds that spot down singlehandedly. Fallen is also an integral member of LG on Inferno's B site, but in a totally different sense. Whilst KRiMZ holds the site defensively and lets the enemies come towards him, Fallen takes the initiative to them as he usually gets the entries on banana through off angles and different spots he uses every time. It was him who always made the difference towards Na'Vi as he often brought them down to four men right at the very start.

Who does this map pool favor in the end?

This is actually the beautiful thing about the maps and the matchup we are faced with. There is no real favorite within that map pool. Fnatic have two maps probably going in their favor, Cobblestone and Overpass. On the first one, LG have not had any kind of a strong presence and though they had one on Overpass against Na'Vi, fnatic have had a much stronger showing on it against Astralis.

Luminosity are favorites on two maps as well. Cache could be their revelation match, as they have not been seen there very often but could potentially bring up a stellar T-side and ultimately just keep the sites on lockdown as CTs. Train then is yet another safe win for them unless they drop the bar or fnatic have gotten inventive themselves.

It may come down to Inferno. Not necessarily in that order but this is the least predictable outcome. Fnatic have been overly strong on it in recent times, but that strength has been overpowered by Luminosity just three days ago and LG are undefeated on it at this specific event. This is going to be a very close match that the Swedes can succeed in just as the Brazilians can walk away with it too. Be sure to tune in for the stream, which will be going off 6pm CET!