Breaking Down Derek Whoolery’s Latest Mock for the 2019 NFL Draft

Welcome back to Attack the Mock (believe, bruv!) where we explore and deconstruct a mock draft for the 2019 NFL Draft, and talk to the analyst about their process.

We recently had Dan Kadar and Jeff Risdon, and now I’m hyped to welcome Derek Whoolery, or as you might know him, National Mock Drafts. I think he is the undisputed Top Scout on Instagram, so that’s where you’ll find his 2-Round Mock Draft as well as a TON of other excellent content, from scouting reports to team needs to trade scenarios and beyond. You can also find his mock in the featured section of our 2019 NFL Mock Draft Database (bookmark it for your brain).

Here is a link to the FULL 2-ROUND MOCK DRAFT, so you can follow along at home.

Check it out. Get inspired. Then make your own mock draft using the MockOut app, the only place you can easily create a mock draft and invite your friends to compete in your own mock draft pool.

Time for another one of those mock rockin’ beats.

Micky: How do you start a brand new mock draft? Do you pay more attention to team needs or prospect rankings? Do you ever go out of order to make sure you get certain player-team pairings?

Derek: It’s a little bit of both. You need to understand what teams need but also who is best available. I also like to look at trends. For example, the Jets really like drafting a top Defensive player with their first pick and they’ve done that multiple times in recent years.

This is pretty much down the line, looking at a combination of player rankings and team needs, without focusing too hard on either. I am learning through writing this series that I might be the only mock drafter out there who doesn’t go totally chronologically—instead sprinkling fits that I really want to happen throughout the draft, then coming back to the beginning and going chronologically from there.

I also really like the last point Derek brought up, as it is by far the hardest (and I think most important) thing about making an accurate mock draft. Knowing what each team’s front office prefers in their overall draft strategy and what “types” they have for each position. It’s easy to get a read on your own team and their trends, but to be aware of 32 front office draft trends is a big ask. It’s why talking to the fans after you’ve made a mock is a must.

On the topic of having a good read on certain teams…

Micky: Are there any teams you feel like you have a particularly good read on, as far as their draft strategies, schemes, size or skill requirements, etc. go?

Derek: It’s probably easier to say who I don’t have a read on. No clue who is going to actually make the Raiders top picks. If Mayock is in full control, there is a better feel for what they may do. If Gruden is in control, … Good Luck!

My guy! He has no time for false modesty. I see you, Derek, and I raise you an “I feel better about my Raiders insights than I do about probably 25 other teams.” In my opinion, Gruden has a very clear “type”, and looking back at his past successes can help narrow the options in this year’s class. As for Mayock, he’s left us a ton of clues in the form of past big boards, so we can look at the traits he seems to be higher and lower on compared to other draft analysts, and plan accordingly. It seems size is important to him, as Mayfield was behind Darnold, Allen and Rosen in his QB rankings, and Ward was behind Jaire in his CB rankings.

All those Kyler-to-OAK mock picks might have to be reconsidered…

Since we’re on the Raiders, let’s go to their first pick in this mock draft:





4. Greedy Williams, CB LSU

Micky: I don’t see the OAK-Greedy pairing very often, so tell me about it. Do you love Greedy as a prospect more than most? Think the need at CB is greater than their need at Edge or elsewhere? Think the depth at Edge lasts longer than CB?

Derek: I would like to see Josh Allen with the Raiders, I believe that would be a better need being filled. Williams is very talented player who would work great alongside Gareon Conley… If he’s not traded.

Ah, but Josh Allen went one pick earlier, to NYJ. This is where my going out of order either makes me or buries me. If I were making this mock, and I felt as strongly about the Josh Allen-Raiders fit as Derek does, I would have started there, then gone back and figured out a realistic scenario that makes sense for the Jets, but still allows this to happen. Perhaps a trade back with a QB-hungry team? I could see it as a distinct possibility (and even have it falling that way in my own mock, made right after the season ended).

In a shocking display of synchronicity, I also had OAK taking Josh Allen at 4. That feels like a good fit to me, and also fits within the newly-discovered Mayock Size Threshold that I just identified/made up.

Let’s get off the Raiders, and on to the middle of the draft, and some of the more curious prospect rankings and landing spots.

Micky: More toward the middle of the round, you’ve got Cajuste going way higher than most, and Ed Oliver going way lower than most. Can you explain for me why Cajuste is going so high and Oliver so low?





9. Yodny Cajuste, OT WVU

Derek: In my opinion, Cajuste did an excellent job as a pass blocker at WVU. Quality strength and footwork from what I’ve seen. I don’t have a top 10 grade on him, but I don’t have a top 10 grade on any OL.





14. Ed Oliver, DT Houston

Derek: Oliver has fallen somewhat because of durability and supply. This is a stacked DL class. Teams can pick a DL in the 2nd or 3rd and still get a 1st round talent.

There’s a lot to unpack here, so let me go in order. First, Cajuste.

It’s interesting to see an O-lineman go in the top-10 if the analyst doesn’t have a top-10 grade on him, but especially in the top-5. This answer actually makes me wish I had gone back and asked about Jonah Williams, who doesn’t have a top-10 grade but went at pick 5 to the Bucs. My assumption is that TB’s need at the position (plus the difficulty that comes with drafting a competent starter) made him the pick. Same goes with Cajuste.

And, honestly, I love it. I think a big flaw in many mocks is that analysts are too true to their big boards, without taking things like positional value (outside of bumping up QBs and down RBs) positional scarcity, contracts, etc. into account. Last year, I’m guessing even the teams that drafted them didn’t see McGlinchey and Kolton as top-15 players. But their teams know how difficult it is to get a great lineman, had a big need, and pulled the trigger.

I absolutely expect it to happen again this year. I would say Jonah is a top-10 lock, and there will be somewhere around 1-3 additional linemen going in the top-15. Cajuste, Ford, Taylor, in some order.

Now, Oliver.

I referenced his mysterious slide in my recent Mystery Risers and Fallers article, and came to a completely different conclusion about Ed Oliver. Derek thinks the slide is legit, due to incredible depth at the position and legitimate questions about his career. I think it is an oversight on the side of analysts and mock drafters, and that it will be corrected in the coming weeks when we all wise up.

We’ll see who ultimately gets this one right.

I also want to take this opportunity to jump in and mention one of the Player-Team matches I haven’t seen very often, that I really like: Ferrell to MIA. Everyone is (rightly) fixated on their need at QB, but they really need some DE help as well, and Ferrell is a much better value at that point than any of the remaining QBs, given the way the draft fell. Speaking of which, there was one team who didn’t get make the value pick, and instead just took the best QB available.





15. Daniel Jones, Duke

Micky: Is Daniel Jones capable of being a franchise QB? Or are the Redskins so desperate that they will take a flier on any available QB, even if it means wasting a first round pick on a middling QB prospect?

Derek: I like Jones, but don’t love him. He’s shown above average Arm Strength and Accuracy. He will likely be a solid QB for 7-10 Years or so. Picking him mid-1st without trading up won’t be such a bad pick for WAS.

I’ll leave the scouting to Derek on this one, since he knows significantly more about Jones than I do, but I have to disagree with his take on the value of a solid QB. I don’t think you draft a solid QB in the middle of the first, unless you think he can become exceptional. Otherwise, you are stuck in QB purgatory for those 7-10 years, hopeful that your “solid” passer will improve, and fearful of taking another QB who might be great, or might be a waste of a pick.

I think Joe Flacco is the perfect argument against me here. I don’t remember anyone thinking Flacco would be the best QB in the league- even Ravens fans. They wanted a QB who would be just solid enough to not let the rest of his amazing team down. And he did what he was asked to do. Once. Maybe it was worth it, getting that Super Bowl win. But it took the Ravens 6 years of slogging through solid QB play before they would draft another QB with starter potential.

Okay, let’s flip things back to the defensive side of the ball.





20. Byron Murphy, CB Washington

Micky: Byron Murphy is my guy. Assuming he shows any kind of speed at the combine, I think he is deserving of a top-5 pick. You’ve got him falling all the way down to pick 20. So what am I overlooking in his game? Why is he really a bottom-of-the-first-round prospect?

Derek: He had issues when in man coverage. Some issues with physical WRs. I have him as my top Zone Corner and actually have him ranked 8th on my big board. Man Coverage Defenses likely won’t be interested.

I agree with Derek on many of his points, and definitely with his top-10 overall ranking of the player. The problem will be that he is a zone corner, through and through. I think there are enough teams that play a Cover 3 Zone that he won’t be falling to pick 20, but I can’t totally rule it out.

But this comes to what I think the draft is about for a lot of pro teams; teams decide to draft the best player for them. So even if Murphy will be limited to a Zone scheme in the pros, if the selecting team primarily runs a zone scheme, that is not a knock on him. It’s a trap I fall into with undersized players as well. It’s easy to bump Brian Burns down due to his lack of size. But there’s gonna be a team out there that doesn’t look at what he can’t do… they’ll see what he can do, and draft him earlier than we are all thinking.

I think that might apply to scheme-specific players like Murphy. The little tidbit I’m going to keep in mind for the next time I make a mock: Steve Wilks (the new Browns DC) calls zone coverage schemes more than pretty much any other DC in the league.

Now, because this is the first 2-round mock I’ve featured in Attack the Mock, I want to ask one bonus question about a notable second round pick.





49. Jachai Polite, DE Florida

Micky: The biggest shocker in your whole mock draft for me is seeing Jachai Polite going in the middle of the second round. I’m going to come right out and say it- he’s one of my favorite prospects in this class. He’s my Harold Landry this year. Which, of course, ended up biting me last year when Landry lasted until the 2nd round. So why is Polite a second round prospect in your eyes? And if you have any insight on why Landry went in the second, I’m still stumped on that one…

Derek: I have a gut feeling that Polite will be limited to only a 3rd down pass rusher. Which isn’t terrible, but if he’s not on the field all the time his stock will go down. His vs Run grade needs improvement. Some similarities with Harold Landry. Landry had issues with outside contain rules.

I’ll have to do a bit more digging into Polite’s run D. Perhaps because of his measurements, I just assumed he would hold up fine against the run. But the heat he brings on passing downs with his speed and power are elite, and I feel like it’s a lot easier to train an elite pass rusher to keep contain, and cover him up with Linebackers if he struggles to hold the point of attack, than it is to try and teach a strong run defender how to get to the QB. He could be very Bruce Ivrin-esque in that way (and they are about the same size, if his listed measurements are correct…)

Irvin went in the middle of the first because his ability to tear around the edge was super rare, and the Hawks covered up or lived with the rest of his deficiencies. I see the same thing happening for Polite, and would have a really hard time seeing Seattle pass him up to take a Safety in the first.

We’re running a little long here, so I’m going to wrap this thing up!

Micky: What’s your favorite pick of this mock draft? The one that just feels right, even so far in advance of draft day? And why are you making mocks now, months before the draft? What purpose does it serve?

Derek: I really like Devin White to the Bengals. I believe I mocked him there each mock draft. And (making mock drafts this early) helps me keep track of player stock and identifies team needs that will need to be addressed.

Devin White to the Bengals is a home run pick. I worry that White will be gone (I can see a world where both Bosa and Allen are gone, so the Raiders agree to trade back with Denver so the Broncos can get their QB and the Raiders take White, 1 pick ahead of Cincy) and everyone in America will get their CIN pick wrong, like last season when we all know they wanted Ragnow, but he was drafted 1 pick earlier. Pick 10 might be hilarious to everyone except Bengals fans… but I digress.

Derek! I love your work, and I thank you for letting me dive in and pick it apart. I learned a lot from this exercise, and might be stealing that Ferrell to MIA pick. We’ll see. Everyone needs to follow NMD on Instagram, because it will make you 100x smarter about the draft. And his graphic design is easy on the eyes as well.

Stay tuned! There’s plenty more mocks out there, begging to be attacked!