A decade ago, at the independent bookstore where I worked as a teenager, an edgy poster hung on the wall. “EARLY WARNING SIGNS OF FASCISM,” it read, that last word big and black and bold for maximum dramatic effect. A long list of these warning signs followed, from “Powerful and Continuing Nationalism” to “Rampant Cronyism & Corruption” and “Identification of Enemies as a Unifying Cause.” Then fine print at the bottom revealed the point of the thing—a call to action, premised on fears that seem alarmist compared to the horrors of today. “These signs resonate with the political and economic direction of the United States under Bush/Cheney,” the poster declared. “Get involved in reversing this anti-democratic direction while you still can!”

There’s no doubt George W. Bush was a terrible president. One of the worst. But Bill Maher was right earlier this month to say liberals wrongly cast the last White House occupant—and the last two Republican presidential nominees, John McCain and Mitt Romney—as “the end of the world”—especially since President-elect Donald Trump has much greater potential to be the real deal.

“They were honorable men who we disagreed with and we should have kept it that way,” the comedian said. “So we cried wolf, and that was wrong. But this is real. This is going to be way different.”



We’ve hit a political moment where it’s hard to know the difference between alarmism and vigilance. After I wrote a piece for The New Republic arguing that Trump’s first post-election interview on 60 Minutes epitomized how authoritarians are normalized, a friend I deeply respect wrote to me, urging against stoking fear when the president-elect seemed to be backing off some of his more draconian campaign promises. There were genuine reasons to be concerned about Trump, this friend argued, but Trump was moderating. Not reflecting that in the press would be willfully misleading.

We’ve hit a political moment where it’s hard to know the difference between alarmism and vigilance.

My friend’s not alone in this thinking. But I have a big sticking point: The president-elect isn’t actually moderating all that much. He said on 60 Minutes that marriage equality was “settled,” for instance, but he’s pledged to appoint a Supreme Court justice in the mold of Antonin Scalia, who voted against it. (Trump definitely wants a judge who’ll overturn Roe v. Wade.) The president-elect allowed that his proposed border wall with Mexico could partially be a fence, but he’s still committed to building a border-long barrier. He’s not planning to immediately deport 11 million undocumented immigrants—though he may ultimately do so—but he intends to expel or jail 3 million who “have criminal records” right off the bat. Is he talking exclusively about violent criminals or people who committed petty crimes as well? He didn’t say.