Stephens: Expert likes NCAA tournament chances for CSU

Shelby Mast isn't a household name to college basketball fans.

When fans are searching for NCAA tournament projections, they generally turn to ESPN's Joe Lunardi or Jerry Palm of CBS Sports since they're the most prominent. But they're not the most accurate.

Of bracketologists who've been in the game for three years or more, Mast, who runs the website BracketWAG.com and is used by USA TODAY as its go-to source, ranks 21st. Lunardi is 44th and Palm 52nd. So when he says he likes CSU's chances of making the NCAA tournament — currently placing the Rams as a No. 10 seed — it's worth listening to.

Wednesday, Mast took the time to talk with me about Colorado State University basketball and what the Rams need to do to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament for the third time in four years.

Matt Stephens: CSU plays Nevada on Wednesday and Boise State is at San Jose State. Even with wins, both teams are likely to see their RPI take a hit. Will that hurt their chances of making the NCAA tournament?

Shelby Mast: It could. Usually, teams don't get penalized for a win, regardless of what it does to their RPI. Whatever their RPI number is, that's not as important to the committee. What the RPI does is break down who they've played. Did they play enough good teams?

I did see an interesting stat the other day. Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, no team in the top 30 of the RPI has been left out. They're top 30 right now.

MS: What has CSU done well to this point?

SM: They've won a lot. Their record is really, really nice. They only have one bad loss, and that was at New Mexico, so it was a road game — not horrible — and at the time, New Mexico wasn't as down as they are now.

There's not a whole lot on (CSU's) resume that jumps out as fantastic, other than the wins over San Diego State and Boise State — both of those home games. With road games, they don't have any really good road wins. I'm looking at their top 100 and they have three away losses. The main thing they've done is put together a good record and avoided really bad losses.

MS: Did CSU do a good job of scheduling?

SM: At the beginning of the year, Georgia State was one of those that everyone was talking about would be a Cinderella team. That was good, UTEP was good. Then the ones that are outside the top 100: New Mexico State is always pretty decent and it's improved its RPI — they started pretty slow. Colorado was predicted to be good — we had them as a No. 5 seed when the season started — so CSU tried there. Other than that, nothing great, but considering their overall nonconference strength of schedule sitting at 98 right now, that's not horrible. The committee will usually turn its nose once you get to that 200-225 range.

MS: Outside of winning the Mountain West tournament, what does CSU need to do to make the NCAA tournament?

SM: If CSU can get to the finals of the tournament and beat either Boise State or San Diego State along the way (they can feel safe). I think if they get to the finals and they're beating Air Force, New Mexico, UNLV, those aren't really going to jump out to the committee as good wins. The committee looks at the conference tournament, basically, as an extension of the regular season. They don't give any extra emphasis to tournament games.

If CSU can get to the finals, I think it's pretty safe, but that's assuming they don't lose one of their final two regular season games (against Nevada and Utah State). That would be horrible.

MS: What would a loss to Nevada or Utah State mean?

SM: Utah State wouldn't cost them as much as Nevada. Nevada is a team outside the top 300 (302), and that one would be horrible. Utah State isn't so bad, but what stinks for CSU is that both are road games. With conference road games, you just never know.

MS: What bubble teams should CSU be rooting against?

SM: They need to root for Purdue to lose, Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa, Texas and Boise State. Maybe North Carolina State and Oregon, too. Those are teams that are right below them, but are in, and losses by those teams only helps Colorado State.

MS: Is there any way the Mountain West gets four teams in the NCAA tournament, should a dark horse win the league tournament?

SM: Hmm. I suppose it's possible. The (American Athletic Conference) is one you really need to watch, because right now they have three teams that are seeded 11 or 12. That league could get one, could get four, and UConn is starting to come on strong and has the tournament on its home court — that will help them.

It depends on who Colorado State and Boise State were to lose to in the (conference) tournament. If they were to lose to San Diego State, not a bad loss. If they were to lose to Nevada, then that's a bad loss that could knock them all the way out.

For insight and analysis of athletics around Northern Colorado and the Mountain West, follow sports columnist Matt L. Stephens at twitter.com/mattstephens and facebook.com/stephensreporting.