It’s not at all clear that the polling on the Kavanaugh affair is shaking out the way Democrats expected. Yes, yesterday we saw a poll that showed 48 percent of Americans in favor of confirmation and 42 percent against. But — and leave aside that 48-42 isn’t that bad given the astonishing things that have been said about the man during last two weeks — there seem to be some important caveats. Per Harvard/CAPS Harris, the number of respondents who want Kavanaugh to be confirmed rises to 57 percent when told that Dr. Ford’s story is uncorroborated, and to 60 percent if the FBI finds no corroboration. At the state level, these numbers look far, far worse for the Democrats.