Tonight’s matchup features Sandy Alcantara (4–10, 4.44 ERA) for Miami against Jon Gray (10–8, 4.06 ERA) throwing for the Rockies at 6:40pm MST from Coors Field.

At first glance, Colorado is grossly overvalued in this game, with some Las Vegas books getting all the way up to -255 for the favorites before getting pounded on the other side back to realism (-240). There are a couple things to point out for this game to backup this overvalued line. Both Colorado and Miami are coming off emotional wins in their most previous outings. The Fish rolled the Dodgers 13–7 yesterday in Miami behind another solid performance from Caleb Smith and a 7-for-15 (.467) mark along with five walks with runners in scoring position. They blasted Walker Buehler who has proven to have road woes early on in his career. Colorado is coming off a big win at home against Arizona in which Nolan Arenado hit a two-run walk off homer in the bottom of the ninth off of Archie Bradley. We all remember Bradley’s two run triple in the wild card game in 2017 between the two clubs. Honestly, it was hard to believe at the time he got a hit let alone a plate appearance in such a big moment, but since he has been sub-par on the mound with many blown games in big spots for Arizona over the last couple of years. The difference between these two spots that favors Miami is that their dominant win over Los Angeles was yesterday and Colorado’s walk-off winner happened two days ago. That one day difference is big. That extra day gives Colorado players time to think back on the season and how things have completely imploded. Miami doesn’t have time to think about their year and the team is immediately thrown on a plane and find themselves playing in hitter-friendly Coors Field the next day. 13 runs yesterday. Coors Field today. Feels dangerous.

23 year old Alcantara will be tested tonight in Colorado. The youngster’s home/road splits are interesting, posting a 4.57 ERA in 13 starts at home in very pitchers friendly Marlins Park and a 4.25 ERA in 10 starts on the road. The Marlins routinely face offensive powerhouses like Atlanta, Washington, and Philadelphia, so the road superiority is intriguing to point out with Alcantara. Not sure this information will prove to be very valuable for tonight’s game though, where he will be making his first career appearance at Coors.

Jon Gray’s home/road splits may surprise some. Gray is 5–2 with a 3.88 ERA in 12 games at home and 5–6 with a 4.22 ERA in 13 games on the road. Any Rockies pitcher who holds these kind of statistics with better home splits is immediately loved by Vegas. Keep in mind though that Gray missed his last start on Tuesday with left ankle soreness. I never buy pitchers who are making their first start since an IL stint or a trip to Triple-A. Although Gray does not necessarily fall into those guidelines, there is still a three day gap to take into account. At -240, Gray and the Colorado Rockies are a big risk. Definitely keep them out of any parlays.

At interesting statistic that points out the vast difference between these two teams to keep an eye out for tonight and the total is combined runs per game. Colorado and their opponents are averaging 11.17 runs per game this season, the most in the majors. The Marlins and their opponents have combined to score 8.51 runs per game this season, fewest in the majors. Obviously the parks these teams play in adds a major factor to these numbers, but the Rockies pitching has been especially horrific on the road this year as well. If this game was in Miami, we would certainly love on under around 8.5 runs. The Rockies can’t hit for shit on the road and Alcantara already took the Rockies for 8 scoreless innings in Miami early this year. But tonight’s game is at Coors Field and 12.5 runs is weary. The blind public bettor would say ‘under all day no way they get to 13 runs.’ The loyal Rockies fan would say ‘Rockies pitching is laughable, over guaranteed.’ I say “lay off it.” Not enough information here to take either side. We’re coin flipping. Miami scoring 13 runs yesterday is dangerous and the Rockies getting familiar to home terrain this week perceives confidence in their bats. Miami is just not quite good enough offensively to buy this over. If you’ve read my articles before you know I hate overs.

Two more quick items to point out before we ultimately make a decision on tonight’s game. Always check your lineups people. Sometimes a line can be too good to be true and you’re thinking you just beat Vegas only to learn that the team you just bought’s best player has an off day. Only in pure dream spots can you ignore lineups such as if a publicly favored team is drastically overvalued and has been playing mediocre baseball as of late. In those spots you can almost always take the big plus money lying around. The team you’re buying needs to have a pretty bad record but playing okay of late. Setting that knowledge aside, Miami is sending a pretty standard lineup out there tonight. We would love to see Miguel Rojas out there if we are ready to buy Miami, but he continues to be shelved since August 6th with a strained right hamstring. Colorado also is sending a typical lineup to the field today with the exception of Alonso at first and Daza in center field. With Blackmon, Story, and Arenado in the lineup at home, Colorado always holds to potential to blow up the scoreboard. Last but not least, when we’re leaning on betting a dog we have to evaluate the pitching matchups for the remainder of the series. Usually game threes where a team is looking to not get swept is a great spot to buy a dog, but this can be mirrored the other direction in games one and two. If the pitching matchups are not in the underdog’s favor for the rest of the series, today’s game may be the only spot to buy them for the value. Tomorrow we have Noesi against Marquez. Colorado is near the same line in that game at -260. Sunday we’re looking at Yamamoto and Lambert. Tomorrow is horrible for Miami and Sunday is TBD.

Colorado is playing horrible baseball. 10–22 in their last 32 to start the second half. Miami 3–4 in their last 7. Although Caleb Smith is the only Marlin starter you can blindly buy every fifth day, we ultimately like Alcantara and the fish tonight. Buy Miami +210. This is a low risk bet with upside and more chances to hit the fish this weekend. Confidence rating: Medium.