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Predictions_with_Totals

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file



NFL 2020 Ratings through results of 2020 SEPTEMBER 14 MONDAY - Week no. 1





this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom

(2) DIVISION AVERAGES

(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)

(3) teams listed by DIVISION

(listed in order within divisions)



The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a

hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%

of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games

that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes

into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This

is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.





To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of

the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home

team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be

favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.

Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 7 points

over a HOME team having a rating of 14.



NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.

In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for

illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.

Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings

directly over their respective columns.



The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of

schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these

rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.



Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually

different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.

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The PREDICTOR , is such that the score is the only thing that matters.

PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS , BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL

and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.

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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED

and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.

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The RECENT , is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become

more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.

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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS) , GOLDEN_MEAN ,

and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.





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NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

1 Kansas City Chiefs = 27.26 1 0 0 15.55( 30) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 27.54 1 | 27.65 1 | 26.81 2 (afc west)

2 Baltimore Ravens = 26.52 1 0 0 15.96( 29) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 27.01 2 | 25.97 2 | 26.84 1 (afc north)

3 New Orleans Saints = 25.53 1 0 0 19.07( 17) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 25.46 3 | 25.48 3 | 25.74 3 (NFC SOUTH)

4 Seattle Seahawks = 24.22 1 0 0 20.67( 11) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 23.99 4 | 23.78 5 | 25.13 4 (NFC WEST)

5 San Francisco 49ers = 22.51 0 1 0 18.16( 20) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 23.65 5 | 23.80 4 | 20.74 13 (NFC WEST)

6 Pittsburgh Steelers = 22.45 1 0 0 18.47( 18) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 22.11 9 | 22.08 9 | 23.33 6 (afc north)

7 Buffalo Bills = 22.37 1 0 0 14.12( 31) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 22.15 8 | 22.31 7 | 22.76 7 (afc east)

8 Dallas Cowboys = 22.35 0 1 0 23.72( 7) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 23.14 6 | 22.96 6 | 21.23 12 (NFC EAST)

9 Green Bay Packers = 22.04 1 0 0 22.00( 8) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.53 11 | 21.40 12 | 23.51 5 (NFC NORTH)

10 New England Patriots = 21.85 1 0 0 13.27( 32) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.60 10 | 21.77 10 | 22.27 8 (afc east)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 21.56 0 1 0 28.03( 3) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 22.22 7 | 22.23 8 | 20.44 17 (NFC SOUTH)

12 Los Angeles Rams = 21.23 1 0 0 19.85( 14) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 20.83 13 | 21.01 13 | 21.96 10 (NFC WEST)

13 Tennessee Titans = 20.81 1 0 0 21.34( 10) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 20.42 14 | 20.55 14 | 21.59 11 (afc south)

14 Arizona Cardinals = 20.65 1 0 0 25.00( 4) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 20.04 16 | 19.90 16 | 22.22 9 (NFC WEST)

15 Philadelphia Eagles = 20.43 0 1 0 19.92( 13) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.36 12 | 21.60 11 | 18.42 19 (NFC EAST)

16 Los Angeles Chargers = 19.95 1 0 0 17.32( 24) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.48 18 | 19.76 18 | 20.69 15 (afc west)

17 Las Vegas Raiders = 19.75 1 0 0 17.62( 22) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.22 20 | 19.42 20 | 20.68 16 (afc west)

18 Chicago Bears = 19.59 1 0 0 19.14( 16) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.01 21 | 19.11 22 | 20.73 14 (NFC NORTH)

19 Minnesota Vikings = 19.51 0 1 0 19.54( 15) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 20.22 15 | 20.36 15 | 17.90 21 (NFC NORTH)

20 Indianapolis Colts = 18.90 0 1 0 17.13( 26) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.62 17 | 19.78 17 | 17.13 24 (afc south)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

21 Denver Broncos = 18.85 0 1 0 18.32( 19) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 19.28 19 | 19.14 21 | 18.16 20 (afc west)

22 Cleveland Browns = 18.45 0 1 0 29.02( 2) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.33 23 | 19.52 19 | 17.46 23 (afc north)

23 Atlanta Falcons = 18.18 0 1 0 21.72( 9) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.63 22 | 18.85 23 | 16.97 25 (NFC SOUTH)

24 Houston Texans = 18.04 0 1 0 29.76( 1) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.23 24 | 18.15 24 | 17.83 22 (afc south)

25 Washington Football = 17.43 1 0 0 17.93( 21) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 16.12 28 | 15.84 28 | 19.54 18 (NFC EAST)

26 Detroit Lions = 16.65 0 1 0 17.10( 27) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 17.01 25 | 16.87 25 | 16.07 28 (NFC NORTH)

27 New York Jets = 16.61 0 1 0 24.87( 5) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.83 26 | 16.66 26 | 16.42 27 (afc east)

28 New York Giants = 15.97 0 1 0 19.95( 12) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.27 27 | 16.28 27 | 15.37 30 (NFC EAST)

29 Miami Dolphins = 15.76 0 1 0 24.34( 6) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.91 29 | 15.72 29 | 15.73 29 (afc east)

30 Carolina Panthers = 15.12 0 1 0 17.25( 25) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 15.35 30 | 15.12 30 | 14.95 31 (NFC SOUTH)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

31 Cincinnati Bengals = 14.83 0 1 0 17.45( 23) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.00 31 | 14.69 31 | 14.86 32 (afc north)

32 Jacksonville Jaguars = 14.63 1 0 0 16.41( 28) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 12.48 32 | 12.27 32 | 16.51 26 (afc south)

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Divisional Rankings



There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the

"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)

and the WIN50%.

The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)

in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go

away from the middle in either direction, up or down.

This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated

much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The

"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally

no matter where they are relative to the middle.

Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.

4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1

5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1

6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1

7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1

8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1

9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1

10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1

11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1

12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1

13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1

This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".



The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an

infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.





DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%



1 (NFC WEST) = 22.05 22.15 ( 1) 4 22.15 ( 1)

2 (afc west) = 20.92 21.45 ( 2) 4 21.35 ( 2)

3 (afc north) = 20.53 20.56 ( 3) 4 20.55 ( 3)

4 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.02 20.10 ( 4) 4 20.08 ( 4)

5 (NFC NORTH) = 19.48 19.45 ( 5) 4 19.45 ( 5)

6 (afc east) = 19.18 19.15 ( 6) 4 19.15 ( 6)

7 (NFC EAST) = 19.01 19.04 ( 7) 4 19.04 ( 7)

8 (afc south) = 18.22 18.10 ( 8) 4 18.11 ( 8)





DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%



7 (NFC EAST) = 19.01 19.04 ( 7) 4 19.04 ( 7)

5 (NFC NORTH) = 19.48 19.45 ( 5) 4 19.45 ( 5)

4 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.02 20.10 ( 4) 4 20.08 ( 4)

1 (NFC WEST) = 22.05 22.15 ( 1) 4 22.15 ( 1)

6 (afc east) = 19.18 19.15 ( 6) 4 19.15 ( 6)

3 (afc north) = 20.53 20.56 ( 3) 4 20.55 ( 3)

8 (afc south) = 18.22 18.10 ( 8) 4 18.11 ( 8)

2 (afc west) = 20.92 21.45 ( 2) 4 21.35 ( 2)

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By Division



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7 (NFC EAST) = 19.01 19.04 ( 7) TEAMS= 4 19.04 ( 7)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

8 Dallas Cowboys = 22.35 0 1 0 23.72( 7) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 23.14 6 | 22.96 6 | 21.23 12 (NFC EAST)

15 Philadelphia Eagles = 20.43 0 1 0 19.92( 13) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.36 12 | 21.60 11 | 18.42 19 (NFC EAST)

25 Washington Football = 17.43 1 0 0 17.93( 21) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 16.12 28 | 15.84 28 | 19.54 18 (NFC EAST)

28 New York Giants = 15.97 0 1 0 19.95( 12) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.27 27 | 16.28 27 | 15.37 30 (NFC EAST)

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5 (NFC NORTH) = 19.48 19.45 ( 5) TEAMS= 4 19.45 ( 5)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

9 Green Bay Packers = 22.04 1 0 0 22.00( 8) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.53 11 | 21.40 12 | 23.51 5 (NFC NORTH)

18 Chicago Bears = 19.59 1 0 0 19.14( 16) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.01 21 | 19.11 22 | 20.73 14 (NFC NORTH)

19 Minnesota Vikings = 19.51 0 1 0 19.54( 15) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 20.22 15 | 20.36 15 | 17.90 21 (NFC NORTH)

26 Detroit Lions = 16.65 0 1 0 17.10( 27) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 17.01 25 | 16.87 25 | 16.07 28 (NFC NORTH)

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4 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.02 20.10 ( 4) TEAMS= 4 20.08 ( 4)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

3 New Orleans Saints = 25.53 1 0 0 19.07( 17) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 25.46 3 | 25.48 3 | 25.74 3 (NFC SOUTH)

11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 21.56 0 1 0 28.03( 3) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 22.22 7 | 22.23 8 | 20.44 17 (NFC SOUTH)

23 Atlanta Falcons = 18.18 0 1 0 21.72( 9) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.63 22 | 18.85 23 | 16.97 25 (NFC SOUTH)

30 Carolina Panthers = 15.12 0 1 0 17.25( 25) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 15.35 30 | 15.12 30 | 14.95 31 (NFC SOUTH)

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1 (NFC WEST) = 22.05 22.15 ( 1) TEAMS= 4 22.15 ( 1)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

4 Seattle Seahawks = 24.22 1 0 0 20.67( 11) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 23.99 4 | 23.78 5 | 25.13 4 (NFC WEST)

5 San Francisco 49ers = 22.51 0 1 0 18.16( 20) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 23.65 5 | 23.80 4 | 20.74 13 (NFC WEST)

12 Los Angeles Rams = 21.23 1 0 0 19.85( 14) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 20.83 13 | 21.01 13 | 21.96 10 (NFC WEST)

14 Arizona Cardinals = 20.65 1 0 0 25.00( 4) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 20.04 16 | 19.90 16 | 22.22 9 (NFC WEST)

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6 (afc east) = 19.18 19.15 ( 6) TEAMS= 4 19.15 ( 6)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

7 Buffalo Bills = 22.37 1 0 0 14.12( 31) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 22.15 8 | 22.31 7 | 22.76 7 (afc east)

10 New England Patriots = 21.85 1 0 0 13.27( 32) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.60 10 | 21.77 10 | 22.27 8 (afc east)

27 New York Jets = 16.61 0 1 0 24.87( 5) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.83 26 | 16.66 26 | 16.42 27 (afc east)

29 Miami Dolphins = 15.76 0 1 0 24.34( 6) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.91 29 | 15.72 29 | 15.73 29 (afc east)

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3 (afc north) = 20.53 20.56 ( 3) TEAMS= 4 20.55 ( 3)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

2 Baltimore Ravens = 26.52 1 0 0 15.96( 29) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 27.01 2 | 25.97 2 | 26.84 1 (afc north)

6 Pittsburgh Steelers = 22.45 1 0 0 18.47( 18) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 22.11 9 | 22.08 9 | 23.33 6 (afc north)

22 Cleveland Browns = 18.45 0 1 0 29.02( 2) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.33 23 | 19.52 19 | 17.46 23 (afc north)

31 Cincinnati Bengals = 14.83 0 1 0 17.45( 23) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.00 31 | 14.69 31 | 14.86 32 (afc north)

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8 (afc south) = 18.22 18.10 ( 8) TEAMS= 4 18.11 ( 8)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

13 Tennessee Titans = 20.81 1 0 0 21.34( 10) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 20.42 14 | 20.55 14 | 21.59 11 (afc south)

20 Indianapolis Colts = 18.90 0 1 0 17.13( 26) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.62 17 | 19.78 17 | 17.13 24 (afc south)

24 Houston Texans = 18.04 0 1 0 29.76( 1) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.23 24 | 18.15 24 | 17.83 22 (afc south)

32 Jacksonville Jaguars = 14.63 1 0 0 16.41( 28) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 12.48 32 | 12.27 32 | 16.51 26 (afc south)

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2 (afc west) = 20.92 21.45 ( 2) TEAMS= 4 21.35 ( 2)

NFL 2020 through games of 2020 September 14 Monday - Week no. 1

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT

HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ] [ 2.49 ]

1 Kansas City Chiefs = 27.26 1 0 0 15.55( 30) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 27.54 1 | 27.65 1 | 26.81 2 (afc west)

16 Los Angeles Chargers = 19.95 1 0 0 17.32( 24) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.48 18 | 19.76 18 | 20.69 15 (afc west)

17 Las Vegas Raiders = 19.75 1 0 0 17.62( 22) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.22 20 | 19.42 20 | 20.68 16 (afc west)

21 Denver Broncos = 18.85 0 1 0 18.32( 19) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 19.28 19 | 19.14 21 | 18.16 20 (afc west)

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