Our next graph shows how many delegates each candidate currently has. The nominal goal is the dashed line at the top. However, it appears that the goal of the Cruz and Kasich campaigns is not to reach that dashed line themselves, but simply to prevent Trump from reaching it. In Kasich’s case, as per the chart above, he can’t mathematically reach it, so stopping Trump is the only hope he has left. To continue the sports analogy, he can’t make the post-season, but he can play spoiler for the candidates who have a shot.

Trump, however, still has a chance of reaching nirvana. In the graph below, we can see what percentage of delegates awarded to date have been won by each candidate. Here, the goal is again the dashed line, this time at 50 percent. Trump is near his goal so far—and it’s within reach.

Our final graph shows Trump’s net delegate lead over second-place Cruz. Tuesday increased his lead by more than 150 delegates. Trump would have to start losing state after state, consistently, in order to fall behind Cruz. Is it possible? Head-to-head polling shows it could happen if the race consolidates down to just two candidates—but which of the remaining candidates would be willing to drop out?

The Democrats

There’s no doubt Tuesday was a good day for Hillary Clinton, giving her a formidable pledged delegate lead far greater than Barack Obama’s ever was. Soon, however, we turn to more friendly territory for Bernie Sanders, where we expect him to rack up some big wins. Like the Republicans, the question is: What does each candidate need to win going forward?

Again, in the graph below, the goal is to get to zero and avoid 100. At first blush, Sanders would seems to have a much easier time of it than Cruz, since Sanders would require a smaller share to reach a majority than Cruz. But Democratic primaries generally award their delegates proportionally, which makes it difficult to consistently win a large share of the delegates going forward, barring a dramatic change in the state of the race. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Clinton’s blue line move up and the green line for Sanders move down in the coming weeks.

The number of delegates so far tells the story. Clinton is already more than halfway to her goal (the dashed line).

Looking at Tuesday’s Clinton victories another way is a little less dramatic. The percent of delegates awarded so far barely budged with the addition of five more states. However, as Clinton is currently ahead, that’s good news for her, even though there's a good chance Sanders will increase his share of pledged delegates over the coming weeks. The problem for Sanders is that a steady-state race is the equivalent of a trailing basketball team failing to close the gap as the clock starts to wind down.

Last but not least is the graph of Clinton’s net delegate lead.

Look for a new installment next week, when several more states, including Arizona, will head to the polls.