Lamont ahead in SHU/Hearst and Quinnipiac polls

Connecticut Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ned Lamont has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Stefanowski, according to the latest Sacred Heart University/Hearst Connecticut Media Poll. Connecticut Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ned Lamont has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Stefanowski, according to the latest Sacred Heart University/Hearst Connecticut Media Poll. Photo: Bill Sikes / Associated Press Photo: Bill Sikes / Associated Press Image 1 of / 15 Caption Close Lamont ahead in SHU/Hearst and Quinnipiac polls 1 / 15 Back to Gallery

In the race for governor, Democrat Ned Lamont is ahead of Republican Bob Stefanowski in both the new Sacred Heart University/Hearst Connecticut Media Poll as well as the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Both surveys admit there is a long way to go before the November election.

While the Greenwich businessman has 40.8 percent support among likely voters, Stefanowski, an executive from Madison has 36.9 percent, the SHU/Hearst poll finds. The gap, however, is within the margin of error, meaning the race is essentially tied heading into the Labor Day weekend next week.

But in the new Quinnipiac University Poll, which took a larger sampling of registered voters, Lamont leads by double digits: 46 percent to 33 percent. Oz Griebel, a former Republican making an independent run, has 4 percent, while there is 1 percent for the Libertarian Party's Rod Hanscomb. In a one-on-one matchup, the Quinnipiac survey has Lamont ahead by a hefty 53-to-37 percent over Stefanowski.

The SHU/Hearst survey poll finds that women support Lamont 49.3 percent to 30 percent for Stefanowski. But males in the survey would vote for Stefanowski by 43.9 percent to Lamont’s 31.4 percent.

Crucial unaffiliated voters are virtually tied, at 29.8 percent each, for the two candidates. And 16.7 percent are undecided over whom to support on November 6. Nearly 82 percent of Republicans say they support Stefanowski, while about 77 percent of Democrats say they are backing Lamont, according to SHU/Hearst.

“Whether we’re up or down, we don’t weigh in on polls because we are fighting for every vote every day,” said Marc Bradley, Lamont’s campaign manager, said in a statement Thursday morning. “We’re focused on providing financial relief for the middle class, creating jobs, overcoming our fiscal challenges and moving our state forward.”

In response to the polls, Stefanowski released a statement putting more weight in the SHU/Hearst poll.

“Our internal polls and the SHU poll say what we all know,” he said. “It's a very close race in a traditionally Democratic state. The primary was just last week and the race is just beginning. The Quinnipiac poll is a clear outlier.” Stefanowski’s pollster, in an additional statement, said the Quinnipiac Poll interview too many Democrats.

Gary L. Rose, chairman of the Department of Government at SHU, said the campaign at this points is indeed a classic toss-up.

“It’s still a very-fluid race largely due to the fact that very hefty portions of Connecticut’s electorate are not familiar enough with Lamont and Stefanowski,” Rose said in an interview. “That, I think, lends itself to the notion that the election is just starting. That will be rectified, because the ads are already running. Right now we’re in a state of flux and to draw any conclusions is premature. The familiarity game will start hardening the electorate.”

While the SHU/Hearst Poll surveyed 502 likely voters, with a 4.23-percent margin of error, Quinnipiac contacted 1,029 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent, in its survey, which was released at 11 a.m. There is a difference between voters who identify themselves as likely and those whose names are taken from registration rolls, which could help explain the different findings.

“Ned Lamont is leading Bob Stefanowski by double digits thanks to huge support among women and Connecticut’s status as a true blue state. But there’s a lot of time until Election Day, and a number of undecided voters up for grabs,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. He indicated that while Republicans have been trying to tag Lamont with Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, Stefanowski’s alignment with the president seems more effective for Democrats.

“Voters both approve and disapprove more strongly of President Trump,” Schwartz said. “While there’s been a lot more talk about eliminating the income tax, voters are much more supportive of raising the minimum wage. Voters’ opinions on issues such as these may be contributing to Lamont’s lead.”

The Quinnipiac Poll finds Sen. Chris Murphy with a nearly two-to-one lead over his GOP challenger Matthew Corey, with a 59-percent to 31-percent edge.

In the 21 questions voters answered in the SHU/Hearst poll, the state’s “high tax burden” and budget crisis were listed as the top issues.

“It’s obvious that taxes and the high overall cost of living in Connecticut are huge issues for voters going into the November elections,” said Professor Lesley DeNardis, executive director of the Institute for Public Policy and director of Sacred Heart University’s master of public administration program. “And as far as the governor’s race is concerned, both candidates have to do a better job of explaining their positions, policy ideas and intentions to the Connecticut electorate. It’s clear, as well, that national politics are strongly coloring people’s opinions and choices in state elections, and that November is likely to be a mandate on how effectively President Trump and his administration are leading our nation.”

The two candidates are nearly tied, with 29.8 percent of voters holding a “favorable” view of Lamont, while 30.3 percent have a similar opinion of Stefanowski. The race will remain ﬂuid, however, because 44.4 percent of those surveyed have not heard enough about Stefanowski to form an opinion, while 41.6 percent report the same about Lamont, SHU/Hearst found.

The SHU/Hearst poll finds that Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, who is not seeking a third four-year term, has an approval rating of just 15.9 percent. Voters surveyed by the Quinnipiac Poll give Malloy a disapproval rating of 67-percent to 25-percent, almost in line with its last state poll, in June of 2016 that had the governor with a 24-percent approval rating.

Asked why it has been more than two years since the Hamden-based poll held an in-state survey, Schwartz said there was “just a lot going on nationally.”

On national issues, less than one-third - 30.5 percent - of those contacted by the SHU/Hearst poll approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 58.3 disapprove. This issue could come back to haunt Stefanowski, who fully supports the president and his policies, while Lamont and state Democrats have been highly critical.

The SHU/Hearst respondents translate their criticism of the president into support for their local Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters throughout Connecticut are more likely to support Democrats for Congress by 43 percent to 33.1 percent, if the election were held this week, the poll found.

Among unafﬁliated voters, 29.8 percent support the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, compared to 21.5 percent who support the Republican candidate. However, another 36.4 percent of unafﬁliated voters were undecided on who they would support in the U.S. congressional election at the time of the SHU/Hearst poll.

About half of the voters reported to either “strongly” or “somewhat” agree that electronic highway tolls that collect “significant” money would be an effective way to help pay for highway improvements to relieve congestion on state roads.

Overall, 65.9 percent of Democratic voters support tolls compared 38.8 percent of Republican voters. Among unaffiliated voters, 41.3 percent support tolls and 52.8 percent are opposed. While Stefanowski opposes tolls, Lamont says he wants to follow the Rhode Island model and limit tolling to trucks.

The survey was conducted by Sacred Heart University in cooperation with Great Blue Research, from August 16 through the 21st. Lamont, of Greenwich, and Stefanowski, of Madison, won their respective primaries on August 14. The polling used computer-aided interviewing.

kdixon@ctpost.com Twitter: @KenDixonCT