Top story: Johnson to EU – drop backstop or no deal

Good morning – Warren Murray ushering you into the briefing room.

It has emerged that Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave svengali, gave a speech in 2017 indicting the Conservatives did not care about poorer people or the NHS. “That is what most people in the country have thought about the Tory party for decades. I know a lot of Tory MPs and I am sad to say the public is basically correct.” Now back to the present day, wherein Cummings is a key adviser to Boris Johnson. The prime minister has clashed with the Irish taoiseach over Brexit – the former saying the EU must drop the backstop to avoid a no-deal Brexit, and the latter declaring it must stay. Johnson is visiting Northern Ireland today.

Our monthly Brexit analysis is out today and suggests consumers are propping up Britain’s economic performance but key sectors are showing signs of strain: the pound has slumped to its lowest against the greenback in 28 months. Wage growth has accelerated at the fastest annual rate since 2008 while retail sales rose by 3.8% on the year. However, there has been a slump in company activity as Brexit uncertainty bites, with both building and manufacturing falling into contraction. Professor David Blanchflower, former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, notes that Johnson “only has 100 days to deliver on his dreamland Brexit pledges. An economically disastrous no-deal Brexit seems increasingly likely.”

Homeowner dream fades – Seventy per cent of young people believe owning a home is out of their generation’s reach despite 91% wishing they could afford one, according to Santander. The bank has carried out the largest ever survey of potential first-time buyers in Britain and estimates fewer than 25% of 18- to 34-year-olds will be in a position to buy a home by the year 2026. In 2006 around half of those under 34 were able to get on the property ladder, the bank says. Santander is calling for more flexible lending affordability criteria to help young people who struggle to save for a deposit, as well as lower stamp duty to encourage owners to sell family homes they have outgrown.

Midweek catch-up

> North Korea has launched another volley of missiles into the sea, after last week’s test of a new short-range model.

> The Canadian double murder fugitives Kam McLeod and Bryer Schmegelsky were stopped for an alcohol check by officers at a first nations community, but let go when they didn’t have any, police have said. The pair had not yet been named as suspects when they passed through the Manitoba community, where alcohol is banned.

> Protesters have clashed with police again in Hong Kong as 20 of their number were hauled before a court charged with rioting. Video shows one police officer pointing a shotgun at demonstrators.

Play Video 0:49 Hong Kong police officer threatens protesters with shotgun – video

> The UK is becoming hotter and wetter with fewer snow days, the Met’s annual report on the subject says. A study of data stretching back to 1884 has found the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 2002, with 2014 taking the top spot. On average between 2009 and 2018 the UK was 0.9C warmer than the average for 1961–1990.

> Ten of the 20 Democratic candidates have taken part in another debate, this time in Detroit. Among them, the prominent contenders Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, and rising stars Pete Buttigieg and Beto O’Rourke.

> The UK’s cherry industry, which nearly collapsed 20 years ago under competition from overseas product, has bounced back with predictions of a bumper harvest this year. Some supermarkets say they no longer need to import during the British season.

Leave to keep paying – Young, lawful migrants who have grown up in the UK are being forced into destitution by recurring Home Office fees that have shot up from £601 to £2,033. Meanwhile the length of time a resident must wait before applying for British citizenship has gone up from six years to 10 – pushing people into an increasingly precarious existence. Fees for “limited leave to remain” are applied per person and status must be renewed every 30 months – leaving families paying thousands of pounds every two and a half years to stay on track.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Ijeoma Moore – ‘I can never relax.’ Photograph: Jill Mead/The Guardian

Ijeoma Moore, now 24, only speaks English and completed all her formal education in the UK, yet was nearly deported at the age of 15. The fees to continue her limited leave to remain, as well the £1,000 NHS surcharges on migrants, and uncertainty over her university fees, have been crippling: “They keep moving the goalposts. It means I can never relax – I need to save just in case.”

‘More police not enough’ – Austerity-driven cuts that have left disadvantaged children vulnerable to gangs must be reversed to repair Britain’s “social fabric” and reduce crime, a police chief has said. Jon Boutcher, the chief constable of Bedfordshire, said no number of extra police officers would make the streets safer and significant numbers of offenders must be diverted from crime with a bigger investment in social services, education and mental health. The home affairs select committee of MPs has declared youth violence a social emergency. Its chair, Yvette Cooper, said the government had presided over a “perfect storm of youth service cuts, police cuts, more children being excluded from school and a failure of statutory agencies to keep them safe”.

‘It’s everywhere’ – Lyme disease in the UK may be three times more prevalent than previous estimates, according to new research. The bacterial infection is passed on through tick bites, and without prompt diagnosis and antibiotics it can permanently damage the joints and nervous system. Scientists have forecast that diagnoses could top 8,000 this year compared with previous estimates of between 2,000 and 3,000 a year. “The point is that it’s a lot, and it’s everywhere, and that’s why people should be informed,” said Dr Victoria Cairns, the lead author of the study. Infection rates are higher in Scotland – probably due to its wetter climate which ticks like, and popularity with hikers – as well as in the south-west and south of England. Our story has tips on how to avoid being bitten, and what to do if you are.

Today in Focus podcast: Ungoverned obscenity

Oliver Laughland discusses the mass protests in Puerto Rico that led to Ricardo Rosselló’s resignation as governor. And: Larry Elliott on why sterling is at a 28-month low.

Today in Focus Downfall of Puerto Rico's governor Sorry your browser does not support audio - but you can download here and listen https://audio.guim.co.uk/2019/07/30-69056-20190731_TiF_Puerto.mp3 00:00:00 00:27:09

Lunchtime read: ‘Beautiful and terrifying’ – the US by night

For nearly 50 years, the photographer Camilo José Vergara has been documenting poor, segregated neighbourhoods in large US cities.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Drive through, Nicky D Coney Island, Detroit. Photograph: Camilo Jose Vergara

A few years ago he started photographing his “familiar haunts” at night. To him, “these nocturnal worlds are both beautiful and terrifying”.

Sport

Ben Stokes expects Australia’s new clean-cut image to disappear once the Ashes get under way at Edgbaston on Thursday, with England’s newly restored vice-captain telling his teammates they must hit the tourists hard to lay down an early marker. Caster Semenya will not compete at the World Championships in Doha after a Swiss court stood behind an IAAF rule that would require her to take testosterone-reducing medication.

England are optimistic the key Saracens duo George Kruis and Mako Vunipola will be fit to play a part in their World Cup preparations but Brad Shields may not be ready for the tournament. Before beginning the defence of her title this week, Georgia Hall has revealed her replica Women’s British Open trophy was stolen and “probably melted down”. After winning back-to-back World Cups, the coach of the US women’s football team, Jill Ellis, is stepping away on a high note. And a Transylvanian cricketer whose bowling technique was initially mocked online has been hailed as a hero after saying his love of the game trumped any criticism.

Play Video 1:24 Pavel Florin: cricket's newest hero in action – video

Pavel Florin, a professional bodyguard by day and player-president of Romania’s Cluj Cricket Club in his spare time, became an overnight sensation after a video of his wobbly deliveries against French club Dreux in the European Cricket League on Tuesday went viral.

Business

The pound faces another tumultuous day on the foreign exchanges today after falling to its lowest level for 28 months on Tuesday amid alarm that Boris Johnson could take the UK out of the European Union without a deal. Sterling had some respite overnight, climbing a fraction to $1.216. Consumers face rising prices for imported goods and holidaymakers will see their summer breaks abroad become much more costly. The pound is buying €1.09. Brexit concerns also hit shares in Asia overnight but all eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve later with rates expected to be cut by at least 0.25%. The FTSE is seen opening flat this morning.

The papers

Comments from Prince Harry about unconscious bias, and only wanting to have two children for environmental reasons, make the front pages of the Express: “Harry opens up on racism”, the Mirror: “We’ll only have 2 children to help save the world” and the Sun: “Only one more sprog at Frogmore”.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Guardian front page, Wednesday 31 July 2019.

More on the environment on the front page of the Times: “Ten hottest years have occurred since 2002”. The Guardian has “Ministers accused of dereliction of duty over youth crime ‘emergency’”, the Telegraph reports on Facebook’s plans to boost encryption on Messenger: “Facebook is threatening to hinder police, says Patel”.

The i has a picture of Boris Johnson holding a chicken under the headline: “Feathers fly over future of Ireland”, the Mail has more on the VIP sex ring accuser: “Now turn full force of law on ‘Nick’ police” and the FT says: “Centrica chief to depart as energy group fights to stem revenue falls”.

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