There was never a doubt that Gurley was the king of fantasy in 2018, but now we can see just how high he reigned above his subjects. That’s precisely 2.73 MORE regular season fantasy wins than with a replacement-level running back. Whatever, let’s call it 3. No other back came close to this figure. Todd Gurley was literally in a tier of his own boasting a WAR almost an entire game ahead of the next best running back, Melvin Gordon.

The drop in tier from Gurley to Gordon is rivaled only by the drop from Elliot to Mixon. On the far right, Matt Breida represents the true replacement-level RB of 2018.

What Does this Mean for 2019?

The question now is what of RB WAR is useful for 2019 fantasy drafts? Looking at the above graph, you’ll notice the top three in WAR all have issues drastically threatening their chances of repeating these production levels. Gurley is almost certainly going to regress with an expected lesser workload. Melvin Gordon is on serious watch to pull a Le’Veon Bell, and Kareem Hunt is in time-out for pulling a Ray Rice. There goes the top three from 2018 right there.

Ezekiel Elliot has been one of the favorites to land the 2019 1.1 pick but now he’s joined Melvin Gordon in holding out. This leaves the next three RB WAR producers left: Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffery. With OBJ in Cleveland, Barkley is going to be stuck facing his opponents’ entire 53 men roster in the box and perhaps even a few assistant coaches as well, making it real hard to take him with the first overall pick.

Based on these individual circumstances in combination with the WAR analysis, my advice for the number 1 overall pick is to take Alvin Kamara. He’s coming back to a much similar situation as his 2018 campaign, thus has the best chance out of anyone to finish as this year’s fantasy king. CMC is close behind Kamara, but with a healthy Cam Newton, the Panthers will not have to rely on CMC to perform all 11 functions on offense again in 2019.

Don’t have the number 1 pick, or deciding how to strategize for an auction draft? Make sure you are able to snag one back you like from the 2nd tier before it drops and maybe even two.

Wondering what the WAR results for other positions are?

Quarterback WAR

Wide Receiver WAR

DST WAR

TE WAR

-El Jefe

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Here’s the entire WAR results for all 2018 running backs.