EDMONTON—The province may still be facing some tough economic times, but ATB Financial’s latest economic report says Alberta is safe from another recession in 2019.

“Despite all the headwinds hampering Alberta’s economic progress, it looks like we will avoid slipping back into recession,” chief economist Todd Hirsch said in a news release about ATB’s quarterly report on Thursday.

“With that said, we’ve cut our growth forecast in half from where it was in March.”

ATB Financial, a financial institution and a provincial Crown corporation, says it is forecasting GDP growth of 0.7 per cent for Alberta this year with some improvement to 1.6 per cent in 2020.

While oil prices have improved, the report states, the energy industry in Alberta “remains weakened” due to transportation issues, natural gas prices, and little investment — but the biggest economic issue still facing the province is a lack of pipeline capacity.

“The global oversupply of crude oil caused the price to collapse in late 2014 and sent Alberta spiralling down into the worst recession in 30 years. At the moment, domestic challenges to new pipeline development are hindering Alberta’s economy,” Hirsch said. “Hopefully, a major global slowdown will be avoided and not add to the barriers we face.”

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The report adds that Alberta’s labour market is struggling as well. Although about 21,000 jobs were added in April, they were mostly part-time. The report says overall employment figures fell three times between November 2018 and April 2019.

The construction industry is expected to be down this year as well, with housing starts struggling and non-residential spending down by about 0.9 per cent.

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Weather will impact Alberta’s agriculture industry, specifically grain and oilseed farms, says the report, but international trade disputes will test the sector, too.

The report makes note of overall global growth slowing in 2019, with potentially big shifts happening over Brexit, the new USMCA trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, and relations with China.

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