In hindsight, the Taliban’s willingness to send gunmen after civilians at the Serena Hotel in Kabul, a luxurious spot favored by Westerners and Afghans alike, significantly backfired on them before the election. Among the nine people killed were an Afghan journalist, Sardar Ahmad; his wife; and two of their children. Local journalists were outraged by the attack and withheld Taliban news for 15 days in response.

That action, as much as anything, seems to have had an impact, at least in terms of perception.

“The media have played such an important role over the last month or so in downplaying even some serious insurgent attacks,” said Gen. Abdul Wase Milad, an Afghan Army brigade commander in Paktika Province. “In a psychological war, the media fights 30 percent of the battle.”

In a show of gratitude after the election, the Defense Ministry handed out certificates of appreciation to at least 40 Afghan journalists for ignoring the Taliban’s efforts. The spokesman for the National Directorate of Security, the country’s intelligence agency, said the news media had a bigger impact on Election Day than security operations did.

One Taliban commander agreed. “We carry out attacks on a daily basis,” said the commander, Abdul Wahid, who operates in Kunar Province. “The reason you do not hear about it is that the media is not reporting it.”

In any case, few Afghan and Western officials expect the Taliban to hold off on major attacks for long. And several independent assessments of the insurgency predict that their activities will only increase in the coming years after the troop withdrawal.

In many provinces, the Taliban have spread themselves into remote areas and districts that the security forces cannot reach. With coalition forces largely sticking to their bases, the logic, those familiar with the tactics say, is for the Taliban to wait through the Western military pullout before moving to expand their territory without having to face coalition airstrikes.

Behind the confusion about the Taliban’s tactics is a deeper question about the insurgents’ overall strategy. At issue is whether the Taliban’s leadership truly believes it can take over the national government again by military force, or whether it is fighting more to achieve better leverage in a negotiated peace deal with the administration in Kabul — and, likely, for more recognition abroad.