Jayme Hay-Mendoza wasn’t planning on having another baby. Then again, she wasn’t planning on a winter ice storm that would knock out her power for four days, either.

Cooped in her one-bedroom Oshawa apartment in late December, she, her boyfriend and her 2-year-old daughter quickly burned through the few activities they could think of — cards, and a game called Manhunt.

“We just tried to stay warm,” said Hay-Mendoza, 20. One deed in particular was more effective than the rest.

“We were pretty active,” she said with a laugh. The couple got extra cozy a few times a day, she said. “There was nothing else to do, really… It was just cold.”

On Wednesday, Hay-Mendoza gave birth to a baby girl, her “healthy, ice storm baby,” at Lakeridge Health in Oshawa.

She is far from the only one. Lakeridge and at least two other hospitals in the GTA are currently experiencing a surge in deliveries, fuelling speculation about an ice storm baby boom.

There have been 192 births at Lakeridge so far this September, with numbers expected to well exceed 200 by month’s end, according to Kim Moran, patient care manager of the hospital’s maternal newborn program. August saw a record high of 265 births, many premature, said Moran, and 20 more than the highest previous record for a single month, in August 2012. The average is around 230.

“We don’t have an empty bed. The place is full; it’s just been moms out and new moms coming in.”

High demand for childbirth and sibling-prep classes were Moran’s first hint that a surge was coming.

She said ice storm conception has been a water cooler topic around the ward.

“It’s just a big blur in the dads’ eyes, but the moms are very aware they used alternative methods to occupy time.”

Maternity units at Rouge Valley Health System’s two hospitals serving Scarborough and Ajax and Pickering have been busy, too. For August, the campuses saw 143 and 203 newborns respectively, roughly 20 more than the norm in both cases.

Deliveries at Toronto East General Hospital spiked on Sept. 16 and 20, with four more babies born than the average on both days, according to a spokeswoman.

At Newmarket’s Southlake Regional Health Centre, the trend was just the opposite.

“It seems busier this year, but it’s not,” said birthing unit manager Sheena Shannon. This time last year, the unit had clocked 221 deliveries; today they’re sitting at 193.

Last September was the highest birth month ever for the hospital, with a total of 271 newborns. Shannon attributed that to the NHL lockout of winter 2012.

A 2007 U.S.-based study, “The fertility effect of catastrophe,” found birth rates soar after low-severity storms, but drop off after more extreme events.

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“During a low-level advisory, people might spend more time at home, leading to more sexual activity because the opportunity cost of leisure is lower,” said the study, co-authored by academics from Brigham Young University, Johns Hopkins University, the German Institute for the Study of Labour and Renmin University of China.

Moran admitted there is a natural fluctuation to birth rates, and explanations can be quite colourful (she swears there was a spike nine months after 50 Shades of Grey was released). If the ice storm theory holds true, she said, there will be plenty of early October birthdays.

Three hospitals — Sunnybrook, North York General and Humber River Regional — told the Star they haven’t noticed a boom.

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