Kansas City Royals Top 20 Prospects for 2018

(this list was updated December 18, 2017)

The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine.

All of these grades are subject to change as the winter progresses. The final grades will be finished sometime in February when all 30 teams are complete.

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS

Grade A prospects are the elite. In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

1) Nick Pratto, 1B, Grade B: Age 19, first round pick in 2017 from high school in California; long track record as an amateur including Little League and World Cup heroics; draws praise for his swing mechanics and defensive ability; mentioned comps include Eric Hosmer, Wally Joyner, Joey Votto; hit .247/.330/.414 in pro debut, less than expected but it is early of course; had some issues with contact (58 Ks in 52 games, 198 at-bats) which did not fit advertised skill set; scouts still seem to love him. ETA 2021.

2) Khalil Lee, OF, Grade B-: Age 19, third round pick in 2016 from high school in Virginia; hit .237/.344/.430 with 17 homers, 20 steals, 65 walks, 171 strikeouts in 451 at-bats in Low-A; all tools at least average with speed and arm strength probably best overall; shows some patience at the plate but contact concerns as well; could develop into strong secondary average production source; had serious problems against left-handed pitching but young enough to correct this; ETA 2021.

3) Josh Staumont, RHP, Grade B-/C+: Age 23, second round pick in 2015 from Azusa Pacific; combined 5.56 ERA with 138/97 K/BB in 125 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 106 hits; arm strength borders on spectacular, clocked at 100 and higher; good breaking ball and moving change-up, too, but command remains very unreliable; this grade is based on ceiling and may be a notch generous, very much a high risk/high reward type. ETA late 2018.

4) Foster Griffin, LHP, Grade B-/C+: Age 22, first round pick in 2014, disappointing for two years but made big progress in ’17, posting 3.35 ERA with 141/54 K/BB in 161 innings between High-A and Double-A; low-90s fastball; Texas League observers impressed with the quality of his curveball and change-up; showed better command and confidence on the mound; possible number four starter and perhaps a three if he can develop a bit more consistency. ETA late 2018.

5) Hunter Dozier, INF, Grade C+/B-: Age 26, missed most of the season with oblique and hamate injuries, hit .226/.313/.464 in 84 at-bats in Triple-A after hitting .294/.357/.506 at the same level in ’16; let’s just say that an injury season was badly-timed and he’s getting old for a prospect; questions remain about offensive consistency and long-term defensive position but he still has a bat with significant upside; tough to rank, could challenge for Rookie of the Year, hit .220 in Triple-A, or anything in between. ETA 2018.

6) M.J. Melendez, C, Grade C+/B-: Age 18, second round pick in 2017 from high school in Miami, Florida; lefty hitter batted .262/.374/.417 in rookie ball, 26 walks, 60 strikeouts in 168 at-bats; stands out for defensive ability, overall athleticism, and the bat has potential; good things are said about his bat speed but some believe his swing mechanics need reworking; very young of course, quality defense will buy his bat lots of time. ETA 2022.

7) Eric Skoglund, LHP, Grade C+/B-: Age 25, third round pick in 2014 from University of Central Florida; I’ve liked him since college; posted 4.07 ERA with 103/32 K/BB in 104 innings between Double-A and Triple-A; hit hard in four of five major league starts, 9.50 ERA with 14/12 K/BB, 18 innings, 30 hits; finesse lefty who changes speeds and has to rely on his defense; this worked in the minors but command wasn’t sharp enough in the majors; will get more chances, 4/5 starter type. ETA 2018.

8) Michael Gigliotti, OF, Grade C+/B-: Age 21, fourth round pick in 2017 from Lipscomb University; hit .320/.420/.456 with 40 walks, 41 strikeouts, 22 steals in Appalachian and South Atlantic Leagues; was a first-round candidate until an erratic spring lowered his stock but hit very well in pro ball, could be a bargain; speedy, 65-70 speed, draws walks, doesn’t have big raw power however I wouldn’t under-estimate his pop, he could show more in time; want to see at higher levels but I like what he’s done so far. ETA 2020.

9) Seuly Matias, OF, Grade C+/B-: Age 19, signed for $2,250,000 out of Dominican Republic in 2015, hit .243/.297/.423 with seven homers, 16 walks, 72 strikeouts in 222 at-bats in Appy League; impresses with bat speed, raw power, minimum 60-grade thump but has holes in his approach that hurt his OBP and batting average; that may or may not improve in time but the upside potential is clear; 70-grade arm with average speed fit well in right field; lacks Gigliotti’s broad skill base and is further away but the bat has a lot more sock in it. ETA 2022.

10) Richard Lovelady, LHP, Grade C+/B-: Age 22, 10th round pick in 2016 from Kennesaw State; 1.62 ERA with 77/17 K/BB in 67 innings between High-A and Double-A; fastball up to 96, good slider, usually throws strikes, command and stuff good enough to avoid LOOGY work, might get to close games eventually if command holds; as usual, rating/grading relievers is problematic due to difficulties in valuation but he should be a good one. ETA late 2018.

11) Nicky Lopez, INF, Grade C+/B-: Age 22, fifth round pick in 2016 from Creighton University in Omaha; hit .279/.348/.356 between High-A and Double-A, 52 walks, 52 strikeouts in 517 at-bats, 21 steals; anyone who sees him play comes away impressed with his polish, hustle, and feel for the game; excellent defender at second base, range is a bit limited at shortstop but he’s reliable; could become Whit Merrifield but sooner than Merrifield did. ETA late 2018.

ANALYST NOTE: Spots 12 through 20 are essentially interchangeable.

12) Miguel Almonte, RHP, Grade C+: Age 24, has been on prospect lists for years, missed part of season with shoulder problems but effective when healthy, posted 1.72 ERA in 47 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 52/13 K/BB; erratic track record, brilliant at times but held back to this point by issues with durability and consistency; low-90s fastball gets higher on the right day, good changeup, breaking stuff comes and goes but was present more often in ’17; suspect he will fit best in bullpen eventually. ETA 2018.

13) Emmanuel Rivera, 3B, C+: Age 21, 19th round pick in 2015 from Interamerican University of Puerto Rico; hit .310/.364/.468 with 27 doubles, 12 homers, 31 walks, 87 strikeouts in 464 at-bats in Low-A; not well known outside Royals circles but I think there’s ability here, including average power and a strong throwing arm; has made good progress ironing out his swing after hitting just .174 in his pro debut in ’15; power could increase further. ETA 2021.

14) Scott Blewett, RHP, Grade C+: Age 21, second round pick in 2014, 4.07 ERA with 129/52 K/BB in 153 innings in High-A, 153 hits, not a bad year by any means but not exceptional; seems to have typical number four starter stuff with low-90s fastball, workable curve and change-up; fastball hasn’t really picked up much from high school but it’s enough when his command is on; Double-A transition will prove illuminating. ETA 2019.

15) Samir Duenez, 1B, Grade C+: Age 21, signed out of Venezuela in 2013; hit .242/.304/.402 with 17 homers, 36 walks, 116 strikeouts in 523 at-bats in Double-A; scouting reports have always been ahead of his production; optimists see a polished, mechanically-sound swing with solid defensive skills; pessimists say his power is inadequate for a first baseman and that his polish as a hitter is over-rated and not supported by the numbers; optimists counter that he is very young and has time to improve and tap his power more often. I fall somewhere in the middle, having seen both good and bad in specific games from him; I’d be surprised if he becomes an impact player but he could last a long time as a role bat. ETA 2019.

16) Donnie Dewess, OF, Grade C+: Age 24, originally drafted by Chicago Cubs in second round in 2015 from University of North Florida, then traded to Royals; hit .272/.340/.407 in Double-A with nine homers, 20 steals, 46 walks, 81 strikeouts in 464 at-bats; good defender and baserunner; when he was drafted I thought he might show more power than this but likely more a fourth outfielder than a regular long-term.

17) Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Grade C+: Age 24, eighth round pick in 2014 from Sam Houston State University; hit .253/.330/.455 with 22 homers, 55 walks, 139 strikeouts in 479 at-bats in Double-A/Triple-A; a solid enough year but as with Duenez it isn’t huge production for his position plus O’Hearn is older; could be a useful role bat along Clint Robinson lines. ETA 2018.

18) Meibrys Viloria, C, Grade C+: Age 20, signed out of Columbia in 2013; destroyed Pioneer League in 2016 (.376/.436/.606) but was more human in Low-A in ’17 (.259/.313/.394), gap power from the left side and makes contact reasonably well, more home run power should come eventually; former middle infielder is athletic for a catcher but still working on finer defensive points; has promise but a long way off. ETA 2022.

19) Daniel Tillo, LHP, Grade C+: Age 21, third round pick in 2017 from Iowa Western Community College; 4.42 ERA with 32/6 K/BB in 37 innings in rookie ball; got some first-round buzz until hit with minor injuries in weeks before draft; at his best can hit 96 MPH and has a plus slider, command can be inconsistent but he threw strikes in pro ball; very athletic; upside potential is intriguing. ETA 2021.

20) Chase Vallot, C, Grade C+: Age 21, compensation round pick in 2014 from high school in Louisiana; enormous power and a patient approach but strikes out a frightening amount; hit .231/.380/.438 with 22 doubles, 12 homers, 64 walks, and 127 strikeouts in 281 at-bats in High-A; one of the more unique hitters in minor league baseball; defense remains shaky with 12 errors and 10 passed balls in 59 games; it would be honestly tempting to just make him a DH and tell him to concentrate on hitting; the power is a real impact tool but remains to be seen if he can deploy it at higher levels.

21) Brad Keller, RHP, Grade C+: eighth round pick in 2013 from high school in Georgia by the Diamondbacks, selected in Rule 5 draft by Reds then traded to Royals; 4.68 ERA with 111/57 K/BB in 131 innings in Double-A; heavy fastball in low-90s, flashes solid breaking ball and change-up but inconsistent; could stick as long reliever in back of bullpen. ETA 2018.

SPECIAL CASE: Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Grade C+: I have no idea where to put him. He’s got B+ level talent when healthy but is never healthy.

OTHER GRADE C+: Gabriel Cancel, 2B; Nick Dini, C; Gerson Garabito, RHP; Arnaldo Hernandez, RHP; Elier Hernandez, OF; Janser Lara, RHP; Kevin Lenik, RHP; Charlie Neuweiler, RHP; Emilio Ogando, LHP; Evan Steele, LHP; Ramon Torres, INF

OTHERS OF NOTE: Humberto Arteaga, INF; Jesus Atencio, C; John Brontsema, 2B; Dennicher Carrasco, 3B; Cristian Castillo, LHP; Gabe Cramer, RHP; Garrett Davila, LHP; Chris Devito, 1B; Xavier Fernandez, C; Wander Franco, 3B; Amalani Fukofuka, OF; Cam Gallagher, C; Marten Gasparini, OF; Grant Gavin, RHP; Jeison Guzman, SS; Isaiah Henry, RHP-OF; Carlos Hernandez, RHP; Brewer Hicklen, OF; Travis Jones, OF; Andres Machado, RHP; Rudy Martin, OF; Anderson Miller, OF; Matt Morales, INF; Oliver Nunez, INF; Frank Schwindel, 1B; Sam Selman, LHP; Walker Sheller, RHP; Glenn Sparkman, RHP; Bubba Starling, OF; Eric Stout, LHP; Corey Toups, INF; Vance Vizcaino, OF; Nolan Watson, RHP

This system isn’t empty but it is much weaker than a few years ago and lacks impact talent.

There are some guys with loud tools but weak skills, some guys with good skills but blah tools, but few players who combine all the qualities.

I will be around in the comments to answer questions.