NEW DELHI: The Donald Trump administration’s sanctions on Iran have forced India to reduce its import of Iranian oil, even as New Delhi tries manoeuvre such as paying for in rupee during the 180-day exemption window to keep the tap from running dry. But the White House and its occupant are not the only threat to India’s supply of oil from Iran.

Internal strife:

Last week, a suicide car bomber attacked a police headquarter in the Iranian port city of Chabahar, killing at least two people and wounding several others. The Chabahar port in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province is being developed by India, and is of geopolitical and trade interests to New Delhi — the project too is considering a rupee-payment mechanism to get around the sanctions. A few months back, four gunmen attacked a military parade in Iran’s Khuzestan province, killing at least 29; the province is home to 80% all of Iran’s oil and 60% of gas reserves.

India’s take:

The attacks in the oil and gas-rich province and the port city are a concern for India — India had called the former “a dastardly attack” and the latter a “despicable terrorist attack”.

Simmering:

These are not one-off incidents. Khuzestan province is home to Iran’s minority Sunni Arabs, and the Shia-majority Iranian authority has been accused of “institutionalised discrimination” in the region. Sistan and Baluchestan, the province Chabahar is in, has been the site of prolonged insurgency by the Baloch Sunni group there, one which Tehran blames is fanned by Saudi Arabia.

Delhi’s complication:

Baloch region extends beyond Iran, to Pakistan and Afghanistan. India is accused by Pakistan of supporting the Baloch separatist in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. India is said to be ready to give citizenship to Baloch leader Brahumdagh Bugti, who is living in exile in Switzerland. Though Baloch groups in Iran and Pakistan are not one single movement (they even contradict each other in some cases), India’s friendlier approach towards the latter could have repercussions in Iran, say some. Tehran urges Pakistan to crack down on Baloch groups there that cross the border to Iran, even as Pak accuses India of fomenting trouble there.

Regardless of India’s stance, instability in Iran’s oil-rich province and the port is not good news of India’s oil-thirsty economy. Chabahar port is also a crucial stop along the proposed the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200 km multimode (water, land and air) route from Mumbai to St Petersburg through Iran and Central Asia that could help New Delhi counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.