NHL Draft 2015: San Jose Sharks Preview

State of the Sharks

We are going to make this about Joe Pavelski. Not because he was the brightest spot for the San Jose Sharks in an otherwise frustrating season which saw them miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2002-03 campaign. Nor because we feel he is the most underrated player in the NHL today — we would rank him as a top-10 forward in the world after two seasons which saw this complete, hard-working, multi-dimensional player amass 78 goals and 149 points.

No, it’s because we are doing a draft preview, as will be countless hockey writers and TV talking heads, scouts and experts over the upcoming month — and what Pavelski, the 205th overall pick in the seventh round of the 2003 NHL Entry Draft proves is…that we are all a bunch of idiots.

Prior to the 2003 draft, Pavelski was playing for the Waterloo Blackhawks of the USHL, where the smart and savvy forward with a laser beam shot racked up an impressive 69 points in 60 games. Somehow, the scouts took only vague notice. By draft day, his ISS ranking was a modest 129, just behind the 128th ranked player, a guy named Matthew Hansen, who we can only assume was not related to anyone who skated alongside Paul Newman in the movie Slapshot.

When putting together my draft previews, I watch countless hours of film on players and read a myriad of scouting reports from all over the world. The caveat is this — as an actual human being, I only have so much time available to me. So, while I research for hours upon hours on the top rated guys, the Connor McDavids and Jack Eichels and Mikko Rantanens and Jeremy Roys and Denis Guryanovs of the world, I just don’t have enough time to devote a work day to whomever the ISS just ranked 129th.

I am admitting that my views are skewed because of this, but I am not alone. Do Craig Button or Bob McKenzie or Pierre McGuire spend as much time watching Roope Hintz as Lawson Crouse? I think not. It is also important to know that the same goes for executives of NHL teams. As many scouts as they employ, as much thought goes into an NHL draft, there is simply not enough time to devote equal attention to Dylan Strome and, uh…Ales Stezka.

Thus, every year a Joe Pavelski slips through the cracks. We may see flashes of NHL potential, but if the professional scouting bureaus don’t even see enough to consider him in the first four rounds? Well, we just don’t have the time to study up on every possible seventh-round draft pick like our lives depended on it.

So, thank you Joe Pavelski, for proving us all to be a fallible bunch of knuckleheads who only know half as much as we purport to. That being said, we still love you. And now on to the Sharks draft preview…

Sharks Top 5 Prospects (Scale to 10)

RW Nikolay Goldobin (7.5) — outstanding skater and natural-born goal-scorer, has first-line talent if he can build strength and refine his play without the puck. LD Mirco Mueller (7.5) — the Swiss-born rearguard is the kind of player who impresses you because you do NOT notice him; never seems to make a mistake with the puck, reliable, tough to beat one-on-one. C Chris Tierney (7.0) — smart and responsible two-way pivot doesn’t offer a wow factor but can contribute capably in all three zones. C Dan O’Regan (7.0) — undersized center has become a scoring force for Boston U., his small stature has him flying under the radar but he has second-line upside and plays with grit and heart. RW Kevin Labanc (7.0) — Staten Island native came out of nowhere to dominate the OHL with 107 pts. for the Barrie Colts, all this kid does is score and we see him achieving this all the way to the NHL.

Organizational Strengths

The Sharks have two stars in the heart of their primes in Pavelski and Logan Couture. Even with Thornton/Marleau aging and possibly on the trade block, Pavelski and Couture are terrific talents to take the next generation of Sharks back to perennial contention.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic is an elite shut-down defenseman, and Brent Burns is a top-pairing talent, as well. Justin Braun and Brenden Dillon give the Sharks good blue line depth, and Mirco Mueller appears to be the real deal. The Sharks have several solid defensemen in the prospect pipeline, so this is not an area of immediate concern.

In addition to their solid group of forward prospects, Tommy Wingels took a big step last year in becoming an impact player and Tomas Hertl just needs to stay healthy to reach his own enormous potential.

GM Doug Murray has more than $15 million in cap space to work with this offseason, enough to fill several San Jose holes even if Marleau and/or Thornton are not traded.

Organizational Weaknesses

What are you doing next year, reader? If you don’t have plans, you just might be playing goal for the San Jose Sharks. With Antti Niemi hitting the UFA market and Alex Stalock following up a lackluster 2014-15, the Sharks surely need to shore up the most important position in the sport if they are going to return to the playoffs. So, do you enjoy galvanized rubber rocketing towards your noggin at 100 mph? Just apply here…

The Sharks are a terrific argument about patience versus complacency. While they were a playoff lock for more than a decade, they were always very good and never achieved the greatness of a Stanley Cup Final berth. While a strong organization does not panic in the face of adversity and sticks to their plan, did Wilson overrate his assets, hampering his ability to improve his team? Whereas most NHL teams can ask definitive questions, such as how do we score more goals? or how do we draft better? the Sharks’ biggest question could be more philosophical in nature, and thus more difficult to address.

What do the Sharks do about Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau? Both have been captains of the Sharks, both had that captaincy stripped away from them. Thornton had a few verbal jabs thrown back and forth with Wilson in the media this year. Entering the draft, there will certainly be trade speculation surrounding the longtime San Jose dynamic duo. If Wilson trades these faces of the franchise, he had better make certain he gets an excellent return.

Trade Winds

What is a GM to do when a team as talented as the 2014-15 San Jose Sharks misses the playoffs altogether? Does Wilson blow it up and try to acquire young talent for Thornton and Marleau in order to to jump-start a quick rebuild around Pavelski, Couture and Vlasic? Or does he use his ninth overall pick in the draft to acquire a first-line winger and load up for another run in 2015-16?

The rumor mill is churning, and it is difficult to offer any definitive answers. The recent hire of Peter DeBoer as head coach leads us to suspect that the Sharks are more likely to engage in tune-up deals rather than a major overhaul. DeBoer had his favorites in New Jersey, and San Jose has a long history of dealing with the Devils. It would not surprise us to see depth players like Stephen Gionta and Peter Harrold in Sharks jerseys next year, and neither would cost much to acquire.

Trading Thornton or Marleau would be difficult in many respects. Both players would have to waive no-trade clauses, limiting the amount of suitors available for their services. Though the Florida Panthers would love to have Marleau, it is quite possible that Marleau would not love to have the Panthers. Also, it is worth reiterating that Wilson’s legacy would be contingent on the return he received for his long-time stars. Thornton could likely still net a king’s ransom, but Marleau is coming off of an off-year and will be 36 at the start of next season.

We are guessing a few teams kick the proverbial tires on both Sharks’ stars, but they both stay in San Jose.

GM Doug Wilson Draft Dossier

We find Wilson’s draft history interesting. Hired to take over the reins in 2003, his draft record is as inconsistent as any we could find, both for better and for worse. The 2003 draft is a prime example: in the first round with the No. 16 pick, Wilson took Steve Bernier over the universally higher-ranked Zach Parise. At the No. 17 pick, the Devils traded up five spots to grab Parise and, well…we all know how that turned out for the Sharks.

We would love to make fun of Wilson for this, except for the fact that 189 picks after the Bernier pick (the worst of Wilson’s career), he grabbed Joe Pavelski with the 205th pick (the best pick of Wilson’s career). Pavelski, again! You are making fools of us all!

Or, 2004. Lukas Kaspar with the No. 22 pick in the first round. Ouch. But then Wilson made terrific back to back selections in the third and fourth rounds, getting useful NHL-ers Thomas Greiss and Torrey Mitchell. 2005: with the No. 8 pick the Sharks take Devin Setoguchi, only to see current Sharks arch-nemesis Anze Kopitar go off the board to the arch-rival Kings three picks later. A wasted draft? No — in the second round Wilson took a flyer on Vlasic, currently one of the top shut-down d-men in the NHL.

In recent years, we think Wilson’s first-round draft acumen has grown a great deal stronger. We loved his first-round selections of Thomas Hertl in 2012 and Mirco Mueller in 2013. Additionally, we absolutely adored his entire 2014 draft haul: Goldobin offers tremendous offensive upside for a No. 27 pick, and we thought Swedish defenseman Julius Bergman was a steal in the second. Wilson truly cleaned up at the end of the draft, kicking some serious tail with fifth- and sixth-round selections of Rourke Chartier and Kevin Labanc — two players who we think are going to be very good NHL-ers.

Since Wilson has spearheaded 12 San Jose Sharks, we’ll do the math for you on his tendencies. Wilson drafted evenly from the CHL and from the American high school and college circuit. Of his 90 Sharks picks, 36 (40 percent) were from the CHL and another 36 (40 percent) were from USA high schools or the NCAA.

Wilson drafts American-born players as much as any GM in the NHL. While almost every GM drafts a majority of Canadian-born players, 31 of his picks (34 percent) were Canadian while 39 picks (43 percent) were American. It is also interesting that Wilson drafts more players from central Europe than most GMs, having taken six German players and two Swiss players. That might not seem like a lot mathematically, but try finding another GM that has drafted eight players from Germany and Switzerland.

San Jose Sharks 2015 Draft Preview

The Sharks have not drafted as high as No. 9 since 2007 when, it will thrill San Jose fans to know, they took Logan Couture with the No. 9 overall pick after trading up with the St. Louis Blues. That’s the good news. The even better news is that the 2015 draft class is widely considered by scouting bureaus and media pundits alike to be the strongest and deepest class since the ballyhooed 2003 draft.

And since we were forced to mention the 2003 draft again, here it is: Joe Pavelski. You ruin us, Pavelski. You ruin us.

1st Round (No. 9 overall)

Let’s stick with what we absolutely know without a doubt: McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Hanifin and Marner will all be gone. This is not the NFL, where that quarterback we all once loved as a top-five pick falls to the second round because Mel Kiper does not like the way he ties his shoelaces. No, this is hockey, and the chances of any of those terrific young talents falling past Columbus at the No. 8 pick are the same as my chances of riding unicorn-back into Never Never Land while the ghost of Natalie Wood massages my toes. No, really — the odds are about the same.

So, let’s focus on who might be around. In our two-round mock draft, we have those five players gone after five picks. The Devils, drafting No. 6, are desperate for a center. We have them taking Mathew Barzal, though they could also consider the enormous upside of Pavel Zacha.

Drafting at No. 7, the Flyers are desperate for young wingers and love physicality, thus they seem to be a perfect match for hulking Kingston LW Lawson Crouse. We would not be shocked if they went for a RW with the almost-equally hulking Mikko Rantanen. If the Devils pass on the Claude Giroux-like Barzal, all bets are off.

Columbus is up at No. 8. The Blue Jackets’ system is stocked with young talent, but they lack a top-line RW and a franchise talent on the blueline. We think they will go with the more pressing need at D and decide between Zach Werenski and Ivan Provorov.

What we know for sure is this: the Devils and Flyers will not be drafting a defenseman. Therefore, if the Sharks wanted to grab a franchise blue-liner, one of Werenski or Provorov will be available. Yet, all of this is heresy, because this is not what we think the Sharks will do.

Though currently deep at the center position, Pavelski (again!) is often best utilized on the RW, and Thornton will be 36 by the time you finish reading this extremely long column. Wilson has always valued being extremely deep at the center position and then building around that strength. Since we have already stated that we believe there is no way Barzal gets past NJ and Philly, we would like to take this time to talk about Pavel Zacha.

A 6-foot-3, 205-pound physical beast with extraordinary skating ability, Zacha also features one of the strongest shots in the draft. Certain scouting bureaus absolutely adore him — McKeen’s final ratings were just published with Zacha at No. 6. The top Czech talent in the draft (and Wilson has used several first rounders in the past on Czechs), Zacha hits like a freight train and has elite hands. He is an incredible natural athlete with the versatility to be effective at the center or on the wing.

Other scouts are a bit more skeptical. We were shocked when the Future Considerations final rankings dropped him to No. 15, questioning his discipline and ability to play within a team dynamic. We at Today’s Slapshot have high hopes for this electrifying talent, and so should Sharks fans, since we are prognosticating that Pavel Zacha will be a star in San Jose for several seasons to come.

Second Round (No. 39 overall)

We think the Sharks will repeat their 2014 strategy of taking a high-upside European forward in the first round and a high-upside European defenseman in the second. Allow us to introduce you to Jonas Siegenthaler.

The top Swiss-born defenseman in the 2015 draft class, we like everything about this kid. He has NHL size (6-foot-2, 215 pounds), skating ability and puck-skills. He plays a smart and subtle game, very similar in several ways to the last Swiss defenseman drafted by San Jose in Mirco Mueller. He won’t wow the fans with an end-to-end rush, but he won’t get beat one-on-one either. Defensemen like this are the type of players a team can win with, and he’s our second-round pick for the Sharks.

If Siegenthaler is gone when the Sharks pick in the second, we see them taking a good look at some other talented rearguards likely to be available. Here are a few names to know: Gabriel Carlsson, Parker Wotherspoon, Vince Dunn, Mitchell Vande Sompel.

In the later rounds, we think the Sharks will take a hard look at some goaltending prospects. There should be a few good ones available in the third round and perhaps beyond, though predicting when goalies are drafted is especially strenuous. We at TSS like sleeper netminders Matej Tomek, Callum Booth and the underrated and impossible to spell Veini Vehvilainen.

In Conclusion

The Sharks’ 2015 offseason is both pivotal and difficult to hypothesize. That being said, there is no need for panic in San Jose — they have a strong talent-base, now and for the future. Plus, they are certain to get a future star with the ninth pick in a ridiculosly talented draft. Of course, it is possible that a perennial all-star none of us are even familiar with will be taken in the seventh round and then become one of the most dynamic players in the world. Like, for instance, um… oh, you know who we are talking about.

Do you agree? Do you disagree? Are you riding unicorn back to Never Never Land? Feel free to use the comments section provided below or hit me up in Twitter Twitter Land: @StIves72.

Also, feel free to peruse our other draft previews:

Edmonton

Buffalo

Arizona

Toronto

Carolina

New Jersey

Philadelphia

Columbus