The River Severn in the UK burst its banks in November 2012 Steve Stone/Getty Images

Climate change will increase the risk of heavy rainfall and storm surges combining to cause extreme flooding around the UK, Germany and other parts of northern Europe.

Coastal communities already face the prospect of a worst-case average sea level rise of about a metre by the end of the century, as temperatures rise. But Emanuele Bevacqua at the University of Reading, UK, and his colleagues found the risk from rising seas may be aggravated further by compound flooding, where heavy rainfall and storm surges occur at the same time to have greater impact.

The team came to this conclusion after running simulations and looking at projected changes in storm surges, precipitation and waves. The results don’t account for defences and local topography, but Bevacqua says the potential hazard from compound flooding should still be factored into risk assessments for coastal communities.


Today, the greatest risk of such floods in Europe is in the south. If climate change continues unchecked at its current trajectory, however, the probability of compound flooding is projected to increase across northern Europe too.

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The greater risk is clearest for the UK’s west coast, northern France, the east coast of the North Sea and parts of the Black Sea. Hotspots in the UK are expected to include the Bristol Channel, plus the coast in Devon and Cornwall, although Bevacqua says it is hard to pin down precise risk for very local areas, and this should be seen more as a broader trend for northern Europe.

Journal reference: Science Advances, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531