Hey again everyone!

In my last post, I came up with a new metric to determine how disruptive a defensive player was in terms of allowing vs. preventing touchdowns by opposing offenses. Using my methodology, I was able to demonstrate that JJ Watt had a far superior season compared with arguably the second-best defender in the NFL this season, Justin Houston. However, at the end of the day, I still hadn’t actually compared the performance of JJ Watt against some of the quarterbacks who are in the discussion for the NFL MVP award. And at the end of the day, that’s what this debate is really about: whether JJ Watt’s impact on defense is as meaningful as that of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady on offense. Much of the MVP debate has centered around the fact that the quarterback seems to inherently have the most valuable role on any team, since he touches the ball on just about every offensive snap that he takes. Using that logic, I attempted to distill the QB numbers into an easier-to-digest metric of scoring drives vs. non-scoring drives (tip of the hat to fellow Battle Red Blogger DRCooper for providing me with the inspiration). This is the result of my analysis.

Methodology:

To help aid in my analysis of a quarterback’s scoring efficiency, I created a new statistic: non-scoring drive. I defined this as any outcome of an offensive drive that does not end in an offensive score (i.e. touchdown or field goal made). This may be due to a punt, turnover (interception, fumble, or turnover on downs), missed/blocked field goal, or end of half/game.

Next, I decided to focus my attention on Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, since the two quarterbacks have primarily been part the MVP conversation for most of the season, along with Watt. Once again, I used the play-by-play recaps on NFL.com to review every Packers and Patriots game this season. I charted every offensive drive that each quarterback led, tracking TDs, FGs, and non-scoring drives. I disregarded any drive in which the back-up quarterback took snaps. I also threw out any drives at the end of any half in which it was obvious that the offense wasn’t trying to score (e.g. taking a knee at the end of the game), but I did count the drive if the offense was attempting to move the ball to get into scoring position before time ran out.

Since the quarterback is involved in just about every play on offense, I felt that it would be reasonable to credit him with a touchdown whenever the offense scored a touchdown (so even if Eddie Lacy was officially credited with a rushing TD, I still gave Rodgers credit for leading a touchdown drive). On the flip side, as the leader of the offense, responsibility also falls on the quarterback’s shoulders whenever the offensive drive ended without a score, and thus, he was credited with a non-scoring drive in that situation.

The scoring system was as follows:

· If the drive ended in a touchdown for the offense, that counted as 1 TD scored.

· If the drive ended in a field goal, that counted as 0.5 TDs scored (my lazy logic still being that a FG is worth half as much as a TD).

· If the drive ended without the offense scoring due to a punt, turnover, missed field goal, safety, or end of half/game (when it was apparent that the offense was trying to score), the quarterback was credited with 1 non-scoring drive.

Results:

I won’t present the raw data this time around, since it made my last post way too long. I will, however, present the scoring breakdown and summary scoring chart for each QB.

Scoring breakdown for each of Rodgers’ games this season

Game Non-scoring drives FGs TDs Week 1 - GB @ SEA 7 1 2 Week 2 - NYJ @ GB 5 3 3 Week 3 - GB @ DET 8 0 1 Week 4 - GB @ CHI 1 1 5 Week 5 - MIN @ GB 5 0 5 Week 6 - GB @ MIA 5 2 3 Week 7 - CAR @ GB 3 1 5 Week 8 - GB @ NO 3 3 2 Week 10 - CHI @ GB 2 1 6 Week 11 - PHI @ GB 2 2 4 Week 12 - GB @ MIN 4 1 3 Week 13 - NE @ GB 2 4 2 Week 14 - ATL @ GB 1 3 5 Week 15 - GB @ BUF 10 2 1 Week 16 - GB @ TB 5 2 2 Week 17 - DET @ GB 4 0 3 TOTAL 67 26 52

Summary chart for Rodgers’ performance this season

Game Non-scoring drives TDs (including FGs) Week 1 - GB @ SEA 7 2.5 Week 2 - NYJ @ GB 5 4.5 Week 3 - GB @ DET 8 1 Week 4 - GB @ CHI 1 5.5 Week 5 - MIN @ GB 5 5 Week 6 - GB @ MIA 5 4 Week 7 - CAR @ GB 3 5.5 Week 8 - GB @ NO 3 3.5 Week 10 - CHI @ GB 2 6.5 Week 11 - PHI @ GB 2 5 Week 12 - GB @ MIN 4 3.5 Week 13 - NE @ GB 2 4 Week 14 - ATL @ GB 1 6.5 Week 15 - GB @ BUF 10 2 Week 16 - GB @ TB 5 3 Week 17 - DET @ GB 4 3 TOTAL 67 65

Scoring breakdown for each of Brady’s games this season

Game Non-scoring drives FGs TDs Week 1 - NE @ MIA 9 2 2 Week 2 - NE @ MIN 6 3 2 Week 3 - OAK @ NE 5 3 1 Week 4 - NE @ KC 8 0 1 Week 5 - CIN @ NE 3 5 3 Week 6 - NE @ BUF 5 3 4 Week 7 - NYJ @ NE 5 2 3 Week 8 - CHI @ NE 1 2 5 Week 10 - DEN @ NE 6 3 4 Week 11 - NE @ IND 3 0 6 Week 12 - DET @ NE 6 2 4 Week 13 - NE @ GB 5 0 3 Week 14 - NE @ SD 7 3 2 Week 15 - MIA @ NE 4 2 4 Week 16 - NE @ NYJ 6 1 2 Week 17 - BUF @ NE 3 2 0 TOTAL 82 33 46

Summary chart for Brady’s performance this season

Game Non-scoring drives TDs (including FGs) Week 1 - NE @ MIA 9 3 Week 2 - NE @ MIN 6 3.5 Week 3 - OAK @ NE 5 2.5 Week 4 - NE @ KC 8 1 Week 5 - CIN @ NE 3 5.5 Week 6 - NE @ BUF 5 5.5 Week 7 - NYJ @ NE 5 4 Week 8 - CHI @ NE 1 6 Week 10 - DEN @ NE 6 5.5 Week 11 - NE @ IND 3 6 Week 12 - DET @ NE 6 5 Week 13 - NE @ GB 5 3 Week 14 - NE @ SD 7 3.5 Week 15 - MIA @ NE 4 5 Week 16 - NE @ NYJ 6 2.5 Week 17 - BUF @ NE 3 1 TOTAL 82 62.5

From the numbers, we see that Aaron Rodgers led his team to more points scored overall while doing so with significantly fewer non-scoring drives compared with Tom Brady. Approximately 46.2% of all drives that Rodgers led ended with a non-scoring drive, compared with 50.9% for Brady. Rodgers led his team on a touchdown drive 35.9% of the time, compared with 28.6% for Brady. If there was any doubt about who the better QB was this season statistically, I think the numbers show that Rodgers was better.

For extra good measure, I decided to chart Peyton Manning’s record-breaking season from last year to see how Rodgers’ and Brady’s performance from this season measured up.

The scoring breakdown for each of Peyton Manning’s games from the 2013 season

Game Non-scoring drives FGs TDs Week 1 - BAL @ DEN 7 0 7 Week 2 - DEN @ NYG 6 2 4 Week 3 - OAK @ DEN 3 3 4 Week 4 - PHI @ DEN 2 1 5 Week 5 - DEN @ DAL 2 3 6 Week 6 - JAX @ DEN 7 0 5 Week 7 - DEN @ IND 10 2 4 Week 8 - WAS @ DEN 7 1 5 Week 10 - DEN @ SD 6 0 4 Week 11 - KC @ DEN 8 2 3 Week 12 - DEN @ NE 10 1 3 Week 13 - DEN @ KC 5 0 5 Week 14 - TEN @ DEN 2 3 6 Week 15 - SD @ DEN 5 2 2 Week 16 - DEN @ HOU 6 3 4 Week 17 - DEN @ OAK 0 1 4 TOTAL 86 24 71

And the summary chart for Manning’s record-setting performance from the 2013 NFL season:

Game Non-scoring drives TDs (including FGs) Week 1 - BAL @ DEN 7 7 Week 2 - DEN @ NYG 6 5 Week 3 - OAK @ DEN 3 5.5 Week 4 - PHI @ DEN 2 5.5 Week 5 - DEN @ DAL 2 7.5 Week 6 - JAX @ DEN 7 5 Week 7 - DEN @ IND 10 5 Week 8 - WAS @ DEN 7 5.5 Week 10 - DEN @ SD 6 4 Week 11 - KC @ DEN 8 4 Week 12 - DEN @ NE 10 3.5 Week 13 - DEN @ KC 5 5 Week 14 - TEN @ DEN 2 7.5 Week 15 - SD @ DEN 5 3 Week 16 - DEN @ HOU 6 5.5 Week 17 - DEN @ OAK 0 4.5 TOTAL 86 83

Looking purely at the raw numbers, one can’t help but to be impressed by Manning’s numbers. Last season, Peyton Manning led almost as many touchdown drives alone (71) as combined scoring drives (TDs + FGs) by either Rodgers (78) or Brady (79) this season. In fact, the number of passing touchdowns that Manning threw in the 2013 season (55) exceeded the total number of touchdown drives that Rodgers (52) or Brady (46) led this season.

Digging a bit deeper, one can see that percentage-wise, Manning’s statistics from last year measure up similarly to Rodgers’ from this season. Manning had a slightly higher percentage of drives that ended in a non-scoring drive (47.5% vs. 46.2%), but also had a higher percentage of drives that ended with a touchdown (39.2% vs. 35.9%).

In summary, the evidence is quite convincing that Aaron Rodgers was the best quarterback this season, and he did seem to have a very efficient year in terms of leading his team on scoring drives. On the other hand, from a sheer numbers standpoint, he did not appear have a season that one would consider to be statistically comparable to Peyton Manning’s "historically good" season of 2013.

Comparing Rodgers against Watt:

Finally, we get to the heart of the issue. It’s not a perfect one-to-one comparison, but this is as close to an apples-to-apples comparison that I can make looking at an All-Pro QB vs. an All-Pro DE/DT.

As a refresher, here is the summary chart for Rodgers’ performance this season:

Game Non-scoring drives TDs (including FGs) Week 1 - GB @ SEA 7 2.5 Week 2 - NYJ @ GB 5 4.5 Week 3 - GB @ DET 8 1 Week 4 - GB @ CHI 1 5.5 Week 5 - MIN @ GB 5 5 Week 6 - GB @ MIA 5 4 Week 7 - CAR @ GB 3 5.5 Week 8 - GB @ NO 3 3.5 Week 10 - CHI @ GB 2 6.5 Week 11 - PHI @ GB 2 5 Week 12 - GB @ MIN 4 3.5 Week 13 - NE @ GB 2 4 Week 14 - ATL @ GB 1 6.5 Week 15 - GB @ BUF 10 2 Week 16 - GB @ TB 5 3 Week 17 - DET @ GB 4 3 TOTAL 67 65

From my previous post, this is the summary chart of Watt’s performance this season:

Game TDs prevented TDs allowed Week 1 - WAS @ HOU 6 1 Week 2 - HOU @ OAK 1 2 Week 3 - HOU @ NYG 5 4.5 Week 4 - BUF @ HOU 5.5 2.5 Week 5 - HOU @ DAL 3 3 Week 6 - IND @ HOU 4.5 5 Week 7 - HOU @ PIT 2 4.5 Week 8 - HOU @ TEN 3 2.5 Week 9 - PHI @ HOU 2.5 4.5 Week 11 - HOU @ CLE 4 1 Week 12 - CIN @ HOU 3 3 Week 13 - TEN @ HOU 7 2 Week 14 - HOU @ JAX 3.5 2 Week 15 - HOU @ IND 4 2.5 Week 16 - BAL @ HOU 5 2 Week 17 - JAX @ HOU 5.5 1.5 TOTAL 64.5 43.5

Aaron Rodgers has helped lead his team to the equivalent of 65 combined TDs, but has also been involved in 67 non-scoring drives.

JJ Watt has played a role in helping to prevent the equivalent of 64.5 combined TDs, while allowing only 43.5 combined TDs this season.

Based on the comparison of these numbers alone, it would seem like Watt made a bigger impact. And then one realizes that this doesn’t even include the 5 TDs that he scored this season!

Discussion:

When I first started this exercise, I wasn’t trying to make any statements about the MVP race. For me, it was a foregone conclusion that Aaron Rodgers was going to win the MVP award (and for the record, I still think that is likely to happen). I was just trying to see if there was a better way to objectively quantify a defensive player’s contributions on the football field, especially given Herm Edwards’ asinine comments about how JJ Watt didn’t have an impact on his team the way offensive position players do. It wasn’t until after I ran the numbers that I realized that Watt was a significantly better defensive player than even his closest defensive peers. And now, after further dissecting the impact that certain quarterbacks had on their offense, what I’ve found is that JJ Watt’s impact on the defense is quantitatively at least as meaningful, if not more so, than Aaron Rodgers’ performance on the offense.

I am not trying to argue that Aaron Rodgers isn’t deserving of the MVP award; he’s a terrific quarterback who seems to have had a fantastically efficient (though not historically epic) performance this season. However, it would be an absolute disgrace for any of the MVP voters to categorically exclude JJ Watt (or any defensive player) from consideration for MVP simply because a QB is "inherently" more valuable due to touching the football on every offensive snap. The numbers don’t lie: JJ Watt has played a critical role on just about every defensive series (and even a few offensive series!) for the Texans this season, and he measures up favorably with even the best QBs in the TDs prevented/allowed metric.

Conclusion:

Still TL;DR.

Aaron Rodgers is really good at football. But at least for this season, it would appear that J,J, Watt is at least as good, if not better, at football.