Sen. Bernie Sanders holds a campaign rally in Detroit, Mich., October 27, 2019. (Rebecca Cook/Reuters)

A new Siena/New York Times poll of Iowa shows Bernie Sanders leading in Iowa outside the margin of error.

Sanders 25 Buttigieg 18 Biden 17 Warren 15 Klobuchar 8

The Times notes in its write-up of the poll that Biden would stand to gain the most if Klobuchar fails to hit the 15 percent threshold:

Ms. Klobuchar’s supporters could play the most crucial role, though, should she fail to achieve 15 percent in most precincts. When voters were asked whom they would support if they were left with only four choices — Mr. Sanders, Mr. Buttigieg, Mr. Biden and Ms. Warren — Mr. Biden was the overwhelming favorite of Ms. Klobuchar’s backers. He received 55 percent of them in this scenario while Ms. Warren received 18 percent.

Sanders is now within a point of Biden in the RCP average of Iowa polls. The results of the four polls conducted in January are: Sanders +3, Biden +6, Biden +6, and Sanders +7.