A medical staff member looks on during drive-thru coronavirus testing at a screening centre in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, March 30, 2020. (Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters)

As the growth rate of new coronavirus cases begins to flatten across the U.S., policymakers are planning for the next phase of the pandemic response. According to the proposal put forth by former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb, authorities should consider rolling back social-distancing measures only when communities show a sustained slowdown in new cases for two weeks. While that hasn’t happened yet, in the tri-state area and Washington, we’re approaching the “peak” of the outbreak, after which case numbers should decline.


However, reduced social distancing requires a testing capacity that the U.S. has not yet achieved. Moreover, the ability to “trace” individuals who have been in contact with virus-holders is key to rolling back social distancing. Google and Apple announced plans to trace contacts through GPS cell-phone data. Users could opt into the programs, which would alert them if they’d been in contact with someone who tested positive for the virus. Until a tracing regime is implemented, it is hard to imagine a meaningful reopening of the U.S. economy.

Most of the hardest-hit states have seen sizable reductions in the growth of new cases, with Massachusetts a conspicuous exception. California saw a sudden spike this weekend due to delayed reporting of test results.

The table below shows the average daily growth rate in new cases over the past five days and the change in that growth rate from five days prior. The negative percentages in the right-hand column reflect decreases in the growth rate across all the hardest-hit states. Sustained slow growth indicates that we’re reaching the outbreak peak in numerous states. As we pass the peak, medical systems will likely have increased capacity. While medical systems have been strained of late, they have not yet experienced massive shortages.

U.S. testing has stalled. Most of the plans to reopen the economy depend on high testing capacity. Economist Paul Romer estimates as many as 2 million tests a day might be necessary to roll back social-distancing measures. We are still far from that number, and haven’t seen meaningful growth over the past week.

In New York, nearly 10,000 people have died from coronavirus. Over the past six days, more than 700 people have died each day. However, hospitalizations have declined, and the daily death toll has dropped modestly over the past few days. Elsewhere, deaths are mostly on the decline.