But it is no Black Saturday, which killed 173 people and with serious failings later uncovered in the state’s preparation and response. Andrews, whose ability to learn from mistakes is formidable, was a senior minister in February 2009 and the horror of those fires has stayed with him. Scott Morrison at the Lucknow donation centre on Friday. Credit:Joe Armao There’s no doubting his determination to prevent another Black Saturday. The Premier and his colleagues endured political misery for their efforts to reform the fire services amid constant claims the Labor government was “destroying” the Country Fire Authority.

But the CFA has looked anything but a destroyed organisation in recent days. The volunteers have been magnificent, as always but their commanders have looked well-organised, competent and calm. It has been an effective effort. So far. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video Andrews certainly thinks so, feeling confident enough to declare on Friday that the most contentious of his reforms, the merging of the CFA with the Melbourne Fire Brigade, has clicked in this emergency. There’s another big difference this time. The “leave now” message could not be further removed from the “stay or go” advice that proved so disastrous in February 2009.

The simple message, delivered in tough language, looks to have worked in moving people out of the danger zones in large numbers. It’s too early to say how history will judge the Andrews government for its response to this crisis. Failures of strategy and tactics often only emerge in the days and weeks after the smoke has cleared, just like they did after Black Saturday. But leadership matters too and in that respect Andrews is giving a lesson to his mate Prime Minister Scott Morrison whose response at times has been hard to look at. The Premier was back from his holiday promptly on Monday night, as the first reports of property loss began to emerge, being briefed at the State Control Centre, and he fronted the media the next day.