Australia is going to the polls on September 7 for Parliamentary elections, and the expectation is that the current Labour government lead by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will go down for defeat.

A coalition lead by conservative Tony Abbott is the narrow favorite, according to polls, as well as Nomura geopolitical guru Alistair Newton, who handicaps the race in a new note for clients put out today.

It's not a slam dunk for Abbott, says Newton, but a general sense of Labour fatigue, plus some smart moves by Abbott will likely cause the party switch.

One interesting nugget is observed by Newton:

One further point of interest in the senate election is the new Wikileaks party founded by Julian Assange, which will field six candidates across three states in addition to Mr Assange himself (standing in Victoria). Under the prevailing voting system and especially following all the publicity around Edward Snowden, we would not be surprised if Mr Assange were to secure a seat, in which case he/his party may also end up having a hand in the balance of power in the senate.