Brett Kelman | Nashville Tennessean

Gov. Bill Lee said Monday he was encouraged by new coronavirus modeling that predicts fewer deaths and a milder outbreak in Tennessee, but the governor did not commit to matching the critical policy assumptions in the model by extending social distancing orders through May.

The new virus model, which Lee said was helping to guide his administration, assumes “full social distancing through May 2020.” However, Lee’s executive orders closing non-essential businesses and mandating residents stay at home are scheduled to end on April 14. Schools are closed until at least April 24.

Lee said he would continue to factor the modeling into his decision-making, but did not at this time intend to adjust his executive orders to match.

“I’m certainly not in a place where we are considering changes to the policy we have in place right now," Lee said Monday. “So, no, we are not looking to extend any decisions we’ve made until we deem it appropriate.”

Shelley Mays / The Tennessean

Lee was responding to an updated coronavirus model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which once predicted hospitals and intensive care units would be overwhelmed. As of last week, the model predicted as many as 3,000 Tennesseans would die by August.

But the model is now updated to factor in a statewide stay-at-home order and the closure of non-essential businesses. As a result, it estimates an outbreak that peaks earlier and never overwhelms hospitals or ICUs. The model currently predicts that less than 918 people would die by August.

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“It is a welcome relief to get some good news,” Lee said as he presented the revised modeling. “Social distancing works, and improvement in numbers that we are seeing today are the result of decisions we made two and three weeks ago. We still need Tennesseans to remain home if they are able to do so.”

Dr. David Aronoff, the head of the infectious disease division at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said Tuesday the revised modeling was a sign of progress in the efforts to slow the virus, but stressed the model was based on “optimistic principles” of “sustained, long-term sheltering-in-place.”

Aronoff also noted the revised model predicts the Tennessee outbreak to peak on April 15, which is one day after the governor’s current social distancing orders are set to expire.

“Releasing the efforts and sending the message to the general public that the 'coast is clear' when we are still seeing new case accumulation or increased health care utilization, would likely be a step in the wrong direction,” Aronoff said. “But at the same time, I think this has to be taken at somewhat of a real-time basis, and we have to see what tomorrow brings.”

As of Tuesday afternoon, state health officials had tallied 4,138 cases of the coronavirus and 72 virus-related deaths, including 28 from the prior 48 hours. Health Commissioner Lisa Piercey said the virus often takes about two weeks to become severe, so the spike in deaths was the result of the outbreak growing a few weeks prior.