People who have been briefed on the transition team's deliberation said the list of candidates most seriously under consideration remains fluid. | Getty Lincoln, Hickenlooper and Ross included at top of Clinton's ag secretary list

A former Arkansas senator, a leading local food champion and a beermaker turned governor are among the top contenders to be the next U.S. Secretary of Agriculture should Hillary Clinton win on Nov. 8, POLITICO has learned.

There are five names at the top of an evolving list that the transition is mulling for agriculture secretary — one of the lower-profile Cabinet posts despite its crucial role in the food supply. The list includes Blanche Lincoln, a former Arkansas senator; Kathleen Merrigan, the former deputy secretary of agriculture; John Hickenlooper, the current governor of Colorado; Karen Ross, the current agriculture secretary of California; and Steve Beshear, the former governor of Kentucky.


Sources who have been briefed on the transition team's deliberations cautioned that the list of candidates most seriously under consideration remains fluid two and a half weeks out from the election. If Clinton wins the presidency, the dynamics for selecting the nominee for agriculture secretary are also likely to change significantly based on the makeup of more sought-after cabinet nominations, since Clinton has pledged that half of her cabinet would be women.

For now, three of the top five contenders are women — Ross, Lincoln and Merrigan — and all have long track records in agriculture.

Many in agriculture are giving the early edge to Ross, who, as the head of California's Department of Food and Agriculture, oversees the largest farming state in the country with deep experience in tough issues for agriculture, ranging from labor to trade and water availability and quality.

“I’d have to give Karen Ross the best chance of getting it,” said one agriculture policy insider after reviewing the list.

Ross is a “deeply knowledgeable and competent administrator who would know how to do the job on the first day,” said a food policy observer, adding that “few people would be as prepared to do the job.”

To be sure, Ross checks a lot of boxes for a lot of key interest groups, from conventional to organic agriculture as well as environmental groups. Plus, many say it’s time for a Californian, or at least a non-Midwesterner to lead the department.

The last time that happened was from 2001 until 2005 when Ann Veneman served as President George W. Bush’s first agriculture secretary. Veneman is also from California.

Ross also has the advantage of being close with current Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, the longest serving member of Obama’s cabinet, who also happens to be Clinton’s top adviser on agriculture issues and will undoubtedly be a critical voice in selecting the nominee.

Before receiving her current appointment from California Gov. Jerry Brown in 2011, she served for two years as his chief of staff and was well regarded, sources say. Before serving at USDA, she led the California Association of Wine Grape Growers for more than a decade.

If that’s not enough agriculture street cred, add to it that she’s originally from Western Nebraska and is still involved in her family’s farm there.

There is some question about whether Ross would leave her position in California to return to Washington. In an interview with POLITICO in late September, she didn’t reject the possibility, noting that it would be good to have “a West Coast, irrigated agriculture voice at USDA...Now that I’ve left the private sector and gone into public service, I’m very open to where it takes me.”

However, Ross also noted that she still has two more years to serve in the Brown administration and added that she knows just how much work leading USDA is. She said her retired husband wants her to spend more time traveling with him and would probably prefer any trips to Washington to be for pleasure, not official USDA business.

But that’s not dissuading those on all sides of agriculture from making her their top pick for the job.

Lincoln is considered another top contender for the post, especially given the Arkansas Democrat's long history with the Clintons. In 1999 she became the youngest woman ever elected to the Senate at age 38, so she brings some female trailblazing chops.

She served as senator of Arkansas for more than a decade and made history as the first female chair of the Senate Agriculture committee before losing her seat in 2010 to Republican John Boozman.

She also checks a box for southern farming interests.

“The Southerners have been making noise that it’s their turn [to lead USDA], which in some ways pushes the odds toward Blanche Lincoln,” said the ag policy insider.

But Lincoln comes with lots of baggage after spending the past six years as a lobbyist, representing Monsanto and other organizations that are often held in contempt by organic and environmental advocates.

In the nutrition and anti-hunger community, Lincoln is a nonstarter. Advocates have been deeply upset by Lincoln’s aggressive lobbying on behalf of a Mead Johnson, an infant formula manufacturer that’s actively trying to limit expanding eligibility for Women Infants and Children, a program that provides groceries and infant formula to poor mothers and their young children. The lobbying push is widely seen as a bid to keep more moms buying infant formula at full price (the government buys formula for WIC at a discount).

After successfully working with Lincoln on nutrition policy in the Senate, some health, hunger and nutrition advocates were in disbelief about Lincoln’s efforts on Capitol Hill, the way one advocate put it: “Why are you playing this game for a corporation who is minting money hand over fist?”

Despite this, Lincoln is still seen as a politically viable option, one who would not be terribly hard to confirm since she has respect in the Senate. And the idea of Lincoln at the department is even palatable to Republicans, who see her as a more centrist choice than others on the list.

“I don’t think that she would drink a lot of the Bernie Sanders Kool-Aid,” said one congressional GOP source.

Candidates who might ruffle the feathers of Big Ag

The third woman leading the Clinton list, sources say, is Merrigan, who also served as undersecretary at USDA during Obama’s first term. Merrigan, a longtime advocate for a more local, regional food system, is beloved by the burgeoning food movement — a loose coalition of local food, health and environmental interests — and is seen as a loyal foot soldier for the party.

She also knows the Hill. As a former staffer for far left Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy, she was instrumental in crafting the organic food law and advocated heavily for outreach efforts and programs for small and local farmers while at the USDA -- work that some in agriculture are dismissive of because the subtext often is that small and local is better.

As a result, Merrigan would undoubtedly face insurmountable headwinds from the core conventional agriculture groups in Washington.

“I think it would be a good test for just how much our food culture has evolved,” said the food policy observer. “Her resume aligns with the most of the folks who eat food but maybe not most with the folks who grow food.”

Hickenlooper, Colorado’s Democratic governor — experience Vilsack has said he’d like to see in his successor — emerged as one of the more surprising choices on the list, mostly because he doesn’t have any real expertise in agriculture and clashes with Clinton on trade.

A geologist and beer brewer by trade, Hickenlooper didn’t enter politics until 2003 when he became mayor of Denver. He was elected as Colorado’s 42nd governor in 2010, bucking a red wave that saw Democrats lose control of both chambers in Congress.

“That one puzzles me, because I don’t see what he brings,” the agriculture policy insider said of a possible Hickenlooper nomination. “He wasn’t mayor of Durango or Yuma or a more ag-centric place in Colorado. He was mayor of Denver, which is more and more removed from ag all the time.”

More recently Hickenlooper has taken some strong stances, particularly on the TPP, which he supports — a contrast to Clinton's latest position on the trade deal.

“Getting the Trans Pacific Partnership done is going to open some serious big markets for our products, especially our beef and our pork,” Hickenlooper told attendees at an agriculture summit in 2015. “When you can add new markets, significant new markets, you’re going to get a better price. I mean, there’s just no two ways about it.”

Even so, those familiar with Hickenlooper’s leadership style say he could be an asset to Clinton’s cabinet. Much like Vilsack, he has a penchant for reaching out to all sides of an issue and quickly building consensus. A known conciliator, the Colorado Independent called Hickenlooper “an amiable, pro-business technocrat governor of a purple swing state who’s neither a polarizing partisan warrior nor a buck-stops-here kind of leader.”

He’s also credited with leading the development of the Colorado Water Plan, a blueprint for how the state is going to handle growing strain on the water system with an increased population and competing agriculture interests.

“He listens well. He picks good people,” said Ben Rainbolt, executive director of the Rocky Mountain Farmers Union. “He listens to them and the issues and then makes a decision.”

He’s also had a cozy relationship with Clinton and was briefly considered for her running mate. The two met for two hours in July at Whitehaven, Clinton’s home in Washington, D.C., a few weeks after Hickenlooper’s top policy aide joined the Clinton campaign.

But Hickenlooper would also likely alienate environmentalists on the left, who see him as too accommodating to oil companies at the expense of environmental protection. He’s warmly greeted the jobs associated with the oil and gas boom, and in 2014 helped keep anti-fracking measures off the ballot.

"The conservation community likes his beer more than they like his chances of being agriculture secretary,” quipped one source familiar with their thinking.

Beshear is another potential Clinton pick that seems to come somewhat out of left field. While he was governor of the Bluegrass State from 2007 to 2015, Beshear played a limited role in Kentucky’s farming industry.

“He really had no interest in agriculture when he was governor,” said the agriculture policy insider, adding that some in Kentucky farming circles were surprised Beshear made the list.

Beshear stood in opposition to an effort by James Comer, Kentucky’s former agriculture commissioner, to legalize the cultivation of hemp as a way to create jobs and spur economic growth in rural areas. Beshear ultimately allowed a bill to become law without his signature in 2013.

Beshear, who played a prominent role in Kentucky politics dating back to 1973 when he served in the state House of Representatives, did focus on expanding agricultural exports during his tenure as governor and launched an initiative in 2010 aimed at strengthening ties to international partners, going on trade missions to countries like Canada and Taiwan.



But he has a stronger record on health care, overseeing one of the most successful state implementations of the Affordable Care Act, and has been floated as a potential Clinton choice for secretary of the HHS.

Other names getting attention

There are other names that Washington is buzzing about, though it’s not known if they’re actively under consideration by the transition team. Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin is also thought to be a contender. Sen. Jon Tester of Montana and Rep. Chellie Pingree of Maine are also names that have come up.

But it's been suggested that conventional agriculture groups would never support the selection of Pingree or Tester because of their outspoken support for organic foods and production. Both lawmakers have their own organic farms and plenty of support from sustainable agriculture groups.

Shumlin faces a similar problem. He has the most organic farms and farmers markets per capita than anywhere else in the country, and Shumlin signed the state’s controversial, and short lived, GMO labeling law. In short, the state represents a lot of things that aren’t palatable for Republicans, the insider said.

“If I’m [Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman] Pat Roberts or [Sen.] Chuck Grassley, you could name a dozen of them, they will eat him alive,” the insider added.

Other names being speculated about include former Colorado congressman John Salazar and former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm.