Magellan Strategies 2016 Colorado Presidential Survey Results



Magellan Strategies today released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted August 29th to 31st and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.

Survey Findings

Looking at the Presidential race in Colorado, our survey finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 5 points, 41% to 36% respectively. Thirteen percent of voters are supporting Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, 3% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 1% support a generic “other candidate” and 6% of voters are undecided. Reviewing the survey data by party, we see that Gary Johnson is starting to gain relevant support among unaffiliated voters with 22% supporting him, and he is within the margin of error of Donald Trump who has 24% support. Hillary Clinton currently holds a significant lead over Donald Trump among female voters and voters 44 and younger. Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton among seniors 65 and older, and is effectively tied with her among men.

Presidential Ballot Test by Voter Subgroup

Presidential Candidate Image Ratings

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have net-negative image ratings. Among all respondents, 40% have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton and 56% have an unfavorable opinion of her. Donald Trump’s numbers are worse, with 34% of respondents having a favorable opinion of him and 62% having an unfavorable opinion. Among voters of their respective parties, 15% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton and 22% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. The survey did not ask an image rating question for Gary Johnson. However, because of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s poor image ratings, we believe Coloradans will give Gary Johnson a good hard look before making their decision.

Hillary Clinton Image Rating by Voter Subgroup

Donald Trump Image Rating by Voter Subgroup

Summary

This survey finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 5 points, which is the same margin by which Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012. The difference this election cycle compared to 2012 is that the Democrat candidate does not have as many unaffiliated voters firmly in her column. In 2016, these “uncommitted” unaffiliated voters have a choice other than the Republican nominee. If Gary Johnson is able to increase his support among all unaffiliated voters, the ballot test could become very tight. We will have to wait and see.

Survey Weighting Decisions

The survey results are weighted to reflect the age, gender, and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado. While we do think the 2016 voter turnout demographics in Colorado could be different than they were in 2012, we think it is too early to measure a drop in voter turnout intensity by party or age group. We also believe there are strong arguments to be made that Donald Trump’s candidacy could depress some Republican voters from casting a ballot. However, there is also a plausible argument to be made that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is struggling to motivate and inspire some Democrats and younger voters to cast a ballot. The truth is, until ballots are mailed out on October 17th, we will not know if there is a measurable drop in voter turnout by age group or party.

Survey Sample

The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.

Survey Commissioned By

This survey was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group.

About Magellan Strategies

Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations, and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis, and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.