The federal government insists that Canada can expand fossil fuel production and build new pipelines while still achieving its commitment to climate action. But how can we know for sure? And what's the likelihood of such fossil fuel projects becoming stranded assets in a low-carbon future?

wolv via Getty Images Gasfield pipeline in Alberta.

The government can answer these questions itself by moving forward with its proposal to conduct a strategic environmental assessment for climate change — a type of "climate test" that can help determine if proposed energy and industrial projects fit with Canada's 2030 and 2050 climate targets. Canada has committed to reduce carbon pollution by 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and by 80 per cent by 2050 — essentially a pathway to decarbonization by mid-century. Every single fossil fuel project approved makes it harder for Canada to meet its 2030 and 2050 goals. The federal government is making some real progress toward these targets. It forged the pan-Canadian Framework (PCF) on Clean Growth and Climate Change. The PCF sets a federal backstop for an economy-wide price on carbon and includes concrete actions to cut carbon emissions, such as a clean fuel standard, the phase-out of coal-fired electricity, and investments in renewable energy and public transportation. But the PCF itself is less ambitious than carbon reduction commitments in many other countries and is inconsistent with doing our fair share to keep global temperatures below two degrees Celsius. The framework comes up 44 megatonnes (Mt) short of meeting the 2030 target. It will require stronger resolve and accelerated effort to implement the framework, as well as federal leadership to bring provincial laggards up to speed. And it allows for expansion of emissions from the fossil fuel industry, even as every other economic sector is expected to significantly cut carbon emissions. The government recently reiterated this commitment to fossil fuel expansion.

Chris Wattie / Reuters Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr.

Fred Dufour/Reuters Chinese Premier Li Keqiang talks to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a signing ceremony meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China Dec. 4, 2017.