Jennifer Jacobs

jejacobs@dmreg.com

Some Iowa Republican caucusgoers say they're so disturbed by Donald Trump that they would never vote for him, even if it meant Democrat Hillary Clinton would win the general election.

Seven voters out of 27 in a focus group conducted in Des Moines Friday night by opinion researcher Frank Luntz said Trump so strongly repels them that they’d never cast a ballot for him.

Luntz was taken aback.

“This is a big deal,” he said.

When quizzed on why they feel so strongly, the Iowans said although they dislike Clinton, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, they dislike Trump more. One man said the New York businessman can’t be trusted because he doesn’t have any consistent principles; his political leanings have shifted so many times over the years that it’s impossible to say how he’d behave in office. “So Hillary’s not that big a deal,” the man said.

Other criticisms: Trump is "an isolationist"; he said to let Russia’s Vladimir Putin take care of Islamic State terrorists; he’s such close friends with Hillary and Bill Clinton that he invited them to his wedding and plays golf with them; he wouldn’t “put a good face on the Republican party”; and he loves the attention of being on the campaign trail, but doesn’t actually want to be president.



Another said: "If he were a true conservative, he wouldn’t have his ties made in China."

“That segment blew my mind,” Luntz said after the two-hour session, which was sponsored by Google. “They’re so afraid of what he would do as president that they’re willing to see her elected president.”

The first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses are just three weeks away, and the most recent Iowa Poll showed Trump in second place here. He trailed front-runner Ted Cruz by 10 points in the early December poll, but was still solidly ahead of the rest of the pack.

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Asked which Republican will win the Iowa caucuses, just two of the 27 focus group members named Trump.

“Cruz,” almost all of the others said.

Someone predicted retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson; another said former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee or former tech company CEO Carly Fiorina; another said possibly Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio or even New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie "if he can do a lot in three weeks.”

The focus group members described themselves as very active Republicans: 23 of the 27 said they have seen a candidate in person this cycle; some have met all 11 competing in Iowa. Half said that they’ve met a president at some point in their lifetime, either before he was elected or after.

Here are other take-homes from two focus groups Luntz organized Friday night, one with Republicans and one with Democrats.

1. The “birther” attack on Ted Cruz isn’t taking hold.

All but one of the GOP focus group members were aware Trump is trying to put a cloud of doubt in voters' minds about whether Cruz is a natural-born citizen.

Only six said it’s a legitimate concern. The others are confident that because Cruz was born to a U.S. citizen mother, that he, too, has been American since his birth in Canada.

Asked why they like Cruz, the Republicans eagerly chipped in thoughts: He has integrity, knows the U.S. Constitution, fights for religious liberty, fights for the Second Amendment, sticks to his principles, and proved his intelligence and quick-thinking when he confronted the moderators at the CNBC debate in October.

2. Esteem for Chris Christie is growing.

When asked if their views had improved of any candidates in the last 90 days, more Iowa Republicans said Christie, the governor of New Jersey, than any other candidate, including Cruz.

“The biggest surprise for me is how good it was for Christie,” Luntz said.

The Iowans explained why they’re giving Christie a second look: He has dialed back his sarcastic outbursts and now seems sincere, candid, direct and genuine. He’s great in debates, they said. He was “Trump-esque at the beginning,” but has now separated himself from Trump’s insanity, they said.

“It’s like all of a sudden the light came on,” and he became a better candidate, one woman said.

“Christie has now become everyone’s third choice, so he still has to climb through it, but he’s clearly back in the race,” Luntz said. “This is big, but i don’t know if he has the time to catch up.”

7 reasons Chris Christie is poised for an Iowa bump

3. Caucusgoers are dismissive of Jeb Bush.

“They dismiss him; they don’t hate him,” Luntz said.

The former Florida governor is viewed as having substance and experience, Luntz said. But when asked to describe Bush in one word, some of the Iowans used negative ones: yesterday, insecure, past, desperate, no personality, huge let-down, old regime, and irrelevant.

Luntz showed a YouTube video the Bush campaign released of Bush in the passenger seat of a car, talking over his shoulder about discovering a “Sharknado” movie while flipping through TV channels. The Iowans, using hand-held dials to convey a positive or negative reaction, weren’t impressed. Luntz said later that voters crave seeing the authentic, genuine side of a candidate — the humanity of the person — but Bush joking about how he was getting clued in on a cultural reference didn’t connect.

4. Cruz continues to spark voters’ curiosity.

Asked which candidates they feel compelled to research further, the top answers was Cruz, a U.S. senator from Texas. Next was Rubio.

No one said they wanted to look deeper into Trump’s stances or history, or Bush’s.

But about half the Republicans voiced negative views of Rubio, saying “he’s carrying the billionaires’ water,” favors “amnesty,” and has lost some of the passion he had earlier in the campaign. Several said he seems inexperienced. “For me it’s the whole Obama II thing,” one man said. Asked to describe him in one word, the answers included young, sincere, bright, Gang of Eight, Obama, moderate, slick, intelligent, focused on the future, intelligent, plastic, establishment and not impressive.

For Cruz, almost every answer was positive: conservative, principled, leader, trust, sincere, personable, Christian, honest, brain, good, accomplished and "praise the Lord." One person said "Unelectable."

Rubio's campaign style has Iowans intrigued, undecided

5. Half think the media in general treat Trump unfairly.

The other half said he’s treated fairly.

6. Democrats described themselves as “afraid” of Trump.

During the two-hour session with Iowa Democratic caucusgoers, several said they believe Trump incites violence against people by riling up his fans to the point that they’re driven to physically attack others.

Some said they believe he’s racist. Referring to Trump’s comments about Muslims, one woman said, “It’s just not good business.” Another woman said Trump’s behavior is reminiscent of 1930s Germany except the targets are Muslims and Mexicans instead of Jews.

Some said they fear Trump would trigger some sort of disastrous international incident. One man noted that Trump has been “semi-endorsed” by Putin, “and the idea of those two sitting down and talking terrifies me,” he said.

7. Some Democrats are concerned about Bernie Sanders’ age.

Asked to give one word to describe Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, several people said “old” or “fragile.”

Other answers: polarizing, engaging, genuine, friendly, sincere, passionate, interesting and human. Sanders is in second place in Iowa, trailing Clinton by 9 points in the early December Iowa Poll.

When the Iowa Democrats described Clinton, most of the answers were positive: strong, passionate, experienced, powerful, knowledgeable. One man said: “Focus-group driven.”

Several voters didn’t know enough about former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, who gets just 4 percent support, to size him up in one word. Other answers: naive, neutral, nice, needs more experience, musician, and good guitar player.

At a Sanders rally, voters need little convincing