"This is a person in personal crisis, at the end of his tether. He was looking for attention and a way out," said Adam Dolnik from the University of Wollongong, a terrorism analyst who has advised more than 50 governments on counter-terrorism and hostage negotiations. Man Haron Monis "It wasn't unlike most of the hostage situations that police deal with that don't involve politically-motivated violence." Evidence to date suggests the plot to take hostages at Lindt Chocolat Cafe in Martin Place was hastily arranged, an impulsive act that was not especially well-planned. Monis brought the wrong flag, the standard Shahada Islamic banner rather than the IS flag. He also acted alone. "When terrorists go for hostages, there is always more than one person involved and there's a plan A and a plan B," Dolnik said.

Monis' demand to speak to Prime Minister Tony Abbott was typical of someone whose "motivations were selfish" rather than purely driven by ideological fanaticism, he added. NSW Premier Mike Baird lays flowers at Martin Place after the seige where three people died early on Tuesday morning. Credit:Ben Rushton Certainly, Monis also forced hostages under his control at the cafe to appear in videos proclaiming the siege as "an attack by Islamic State". But the lack of any endorsement from the slick propaganda machine run by IS indicates the terrorist group were caught unawares by the siege. "The references to Islamic State were overtones on top of an action that was very personal," said Dolnik

Monis undoubtedly held extremist views. He would regularly harangue politicians in Australia about the government's "terrorist acts" during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and launched tirades against "Team Australia" on his own website, with Iranian-born man often referring to himself in the third person.. But Monis was a member of the Shia strand of Islam regarded by IS as an evil aberration. Thousands of Shia have been murdered by IS fighters in Iraq and Syria. His embrace of the perverted brand of Islam advocated by IS - announced on his website earlier this month - came as Monis was grappling with a series of mounting personal problems, only in part relating to his radical activities. Monis gained notoriety for sending vicious letters to the families of Australian soldiers killed in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Three days before launching the Martin Place siege, Monis learned that his final attempt to get the High Court to overturn the guilty verdict handed to him over the letters had failed. Monis was also facing charges for being an accessory to the brutal murder of his ex-wife, and more than 40 sexual assault charges relating to his time as a self-styled "spiritual healer" dating back more than a decade. Whatever his personal motivation and the level of planning behind the attack, Monash University terrorism expert Greg Barton said it was of little concern to IS, which launched a call to arms in September for supporters to kill a "kaffir" in the West by any means necessary. "The lesson of Islamic State's call for random attacks is they are not fussy about who carries them out, or how they do it," Barton said. Barton said the idea of personal redemption through violent acts propagated by IS had potent appeal to troubled men like Monis.

"If people have made a mess of their lives, IS is is offering a glorious way out." Barton adds: "I don't know if he will make much of a martyr. The guy was a no-hoper. But he had the world's attention for 24 hours. He was able to keep it rolling." The danger, Barton said, is Monis may inspire others. "It was a good demonstration of the impact a hostage crisis has on the media." Australian National University terrorism analyst Clarke Jones agreed about the risk of copycat attacks.

"There are a number of siege and hostage-type scenarios that go on around the world on a weekly basis, and yet we see this type of incident attracting this incredible attention because of the hype around terrorism at the moment, particularly over the last 6-12 months with the rise of Islamic State (IS)," he told the Conversation website. "While this guy is unlikely to have had any association with IS – although he claims an association with IS like many vulnerable loners have done in the past – I think it helps to encourage rather than prevent that activity."