HANFORD, Calif. — Rep. David Valadao’s colleagues privately thought he’d vote against the House GOP bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

The California Republican’s Hispanic-populated swing district went for Hillary Clinton by a whopping 15 percent margin. And with more than half his impoverished constituency here in rural San Joaquin Valley on Medicaid, opposing a bill to cut $800 billion from the low-income health care program certainly would have been the politically prudent thing to do.


But after weeks of internal debate with his staff and fellow lawmakers, the 40-year-old dairy-farmer-turned-congressman backed the measure. And now, Valadao is spending hours justifying that vote back home.

“I’ve had people come to my office and say: ‘Did you take away my health care with this vote?’” Valadao said in an interview. “And I say, ‘Here is the situation.’ Sometimes they’ll agree; sometimes they won’t … They’re seeing all this stuff in the press and so they’re asking me: ‘Is this true, is that true? … How is this going to affect me?’”

Valadao is one of about a half-dozen vulnerable California Republicans who will spend the next 17 months until Election Day explaining their support for the so-called American Health Care Act. It’s a case that will make or break their political careers, as Democrats — gearing up to make California ground zero in their push to reclaim the House — have already identified these Golden State incumbents from Clinton-carried districts as prime targets.

Add these lawmakers’ support for a health care bill with a 17 percent approval rating, and November 2018 couldn’t come soon enough for California progressives.

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That was clear at a series of town halls here last week, the first round of such events since the May health care vote. In the Santa Clarita region north of Los Angeles, constituents accused sophomore Rep. Steve Knight of being Speaker Paul Ryan’s puppet. (The Cook Political Report moved Knight’s district from “lean Republican” to “tossup” after his vote for the health bill.)

Nine-term San Diego Rep. Darrell Issa — who won reelection by less than 2,000 votes last fall — fared no better Saturday morning. Hundreds of liberal activists, and more than a few upset moderate Republicans, swarmed his San Juan Capistrano event with signs that read, “repeal and replace Issa,” and “health care is a right.” One said “death panel” in bold black letters, accompanied by head shots of Issa, Ryan and President Donald Trump.

“I think [Issa] lied about health care,” said Gina McNamara, an independent voter from Cardiff, who stood in the “wait list” line hoping to get into the town hall. “At the last town hall, he said he did not support the health care bill, and he was the final vote for it!”

California Republicans, like others in the party, have parried such comments by arguing that the bill will lower premiums. Issa told a Stage 3 breast cancer survivor concerned about being targeted for her pre-existing condition that she wouldn’t be charged more under the bill as long as she keeps her continuous coverage. The crowd booed.

Some, like Knight, promised constituents that nobody would be kicked off Medicaid — though in fact, that’s quite likely, as cash-strapped states would receive fewer federal funds and scale back their programs. And when all else fails, these California Republicans just point to the troublesome status quo and skyrocketing premiums.

“What we have today isn’t working: emergency rooms are full; we’re losing specialists; we’re not able to attract good doctors in this area,” said Valadao. “So if I vote ‘no’ on this bill, how do I defend that back home? That’s the status quo. And [I ask constituents]: Is the status quo acceptable? The answer is always no.”

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican in a safe GOP seat south of Valadao’s district, believes the vote will actually help members of his delegation in the long run. In a brief interview with Politico, he said his colleagues will have to make the case to their constituents, but he doesn’t think that’s difficult given the insurance companies fleeing the Obamacare exchanges.

McCarthy also noted that most of his colleagues’ Democratic challengers are progressive Bernie Sanders-types who might not play well in more moderate-minded GOP-held California districts. And he argued that Democrats are forgetting that Republican voters typically turn out more during midterm elections — numbers he expects only to increase because of a recent controversial gas tax hike in the Golden State.

“David, Mimi [Walters], Darrell, and Jeff [Denham] have been 100 percent focused on their district from the start, and they have results back home to show for it,” McCarthy said. “That’s why even during a presidential year — when Trump lost California — they all were reelected. Their approach hasn’t changed and that is why I don’t expect their results next year to change.”





In the days leading up to the vote, most California Republicans from Clinton-carried districts showed visible nervousness. Issa snapped at reporters or just ignored their questions about how he’d vote. Many, like Rep. Jeff Denham, say they didn’t know how they’d vote and still had “questions” about how it would affect constituents.

In the basement of the Capitol less than 48 hours before the roll call, an undecided Valadao said his uncertainty stemmed from questions over how the bill would affect his low-income constituents. Behind the scenes, an intense debate ensued. Valadao and his staff deliberated “for hours” and would “go back and forth on different scenarios,” he said.

“There were days that I was like, ‘This is an easy yes!’ Then there were days I was like, ‘Oh, I can’t vote for this thing,’” Valadao said.

Now, as Valadao sat in his Hanford office decorated by black-and-white photos of local family farms, his hesitation vanished. Valadao, who had just attended back-to-back meetings dominated mostly by health care questions, launched into full salesman mode about how the bill would help people, even as he said there is still “confusion” about the AHCA in his district.

During small constituent meetings, including some with liberal activists in Indivisible, Valadao often highlights the bill’s tax credits, which he said would allow people to purchase insurance that’s best for them instead of having a government system that limits their options. While he has 412,000 constituents on California’s version of Medicaid or the Obamacare exchanges, Valadao said they’re not able to see the doctors they want and need.

“When we look at Medicaid, that was created as a safety net. It’s becoming a health care network for the majority of my constituents,” he said. “I don’t see that as a way to attract new doctors and specialists. And they’ll tell me themselves that they’re not going to come to this area if this is the way they’re going to be repaid or reimbursed.”

Rep. Mimi Walters, who hails from a more conservative district that includes parts of Orange County, took an approach totally different from Valadao’s. She embraced the bill from the start, betting that while her wealthier suburban district may be no fan of Trump — Clinton carried her district — voters are still predominantly Republicans who want Obamacare gone.





Demonstrator Karen Ramus carries a Death Panel sign as she join about 200 demonstrators before a town hall meeting with Rep. Darrell Issa at a high school in San Juan Capistrano, California, on June 3. | Getty

Democrats now see Walters’ seat as a prime pickup opportunity. And she’s already drawn three Democratic challengers, including one with ties to liberal firebrand Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

But Walters says she ran on a campaign promise to repeal the law and needs to follow through for her district. The week after Ryan pulled the original repeal bill from the House floor, one constituent sought her out at church and lectured her for its failure.

Still, Walters says she’s had to spend “a tremendous amount of time trying to make sure people understand the truth about AHCA.” And the backlash on the left keeps coming. Walters says she once enjoyed hosting town halls but doesn’t do them anymore because of safety concerns. Her office has seen social media traffic trying to find her house and where her kids attend school.

Not all California Republicans are comfortable talking about their vote. The office of Denham, one of the most vulnerable California Republicans, did not respond to numerous requests for an interview. Knight also declined an interview request and shied away from giving a fuller explanation of his health care vote during his town hall.

Those trying to make the case for the GOP plan aren’t always successful either. During Issa’s town hall, constituent Bill Bird asked Issa if he still supported the health care bill despite a scathing Congressional Budget Office score showing 23 million fewer people would be covered under the House bill.

When Issa first tried to sidestep the question, saying “I voted to move that bill to the Senate,” the crowd shouted him down, chanting: “Yes or no! Yes or no!” He then argued that more than 10 million of those people would simply choose not to be insured after the unpopular individual mandate is eliminated.

That explanation elicited only boos and jeers.

Valadao, for his part, believes his pitch delivered privately is working. Over the course of 40 minutes, he recounted at least three stories of constituents who came into his office skeptical but left more consoled about why he voted the way he did — or so he thinks.

Still, his gut tells him this will be a tougher election than last cycle, and health care could be the main reason.

“When Obama took over, people on the right got all fired up. Now, it’s the opposite,” he said. “Trump took over, and people on the left get fired up, so I think there’s more folks who are involved and engaged … They will play a bigger role in this. To what extent? I don’t know.”

