Southampton proved all the critics wrong last season and, despite falling away at the end of the campaign, the signs are that the Saints can indeed go marching on

Guardian writers’ predicted position: 10th (NB: this is not necessarily Jacob Steinberg’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 7th

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 250-1

Another summer, another round of farewells, but this time no one is painting Southampton as a club swamped by crisis before a ball has been kicked. This time last year, the four horsemen of the apocalypse were supposedly charging at St Mary’s after a summer of upheaval, accusations of broken promises and talk of a grim battle against relegation. Then the season began and all the doom-mongers quietly shuffled out of view as Ronald Koeman’s slick side silenced their critics by establishing themselves as an authentic force in the top half of the Premier League.

The sense of foreboding had been sparked by the exodus of senior players which followed the loss of their manager, Mauricio Pochettino, to Tottenham Hotspur. That the sales of Calum Chambers, Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert, Dejan Lovren and Luke Shaw raised £88.5m did little to dampen the negativity and when Koeman tweeted a picture of an empty pitch at Southampton’s Marchwood training ground with the caption “Ready for training”, some eyebrows were raised so high that they still haven’t returned to their original position.

Behind the scenes, however, there was no panic. Southampton were confident that their model would bring them success. Their replacement for Pochettino was a manager who suited their style and they heightened the quality of both their starting 11 and their squad by reinvesting the money wisely in several new players, culminating in them qualifying for the Europa League by finishing seventh with 60 points, their highest tally in the Premier League era. Along the way there was a first triumph at Old Trafford in 27 years, a 2-0 victory over Arsenal on New Year’s Day, two commendable 1-1 draws with Chelsea, that 8-0 thrashing of Sunderland and overall a pleasing feeling that this was a team that was determined to enjoy its football, playing with a spirit of adventure and a defiant refusal to lie down against opponents with superior financial power.

There was further cause for optimism when they opened their new training ground last November, which should impress Southampton’s potential transfer targets and ensure that the club’s academy continues to produce more young talent. Yet, while they are capable of securing a third consecutive top-half finish and indeed of retaining their status as the best of the rest, it has been slightly dispiriting to see Koeman’s squad disrupted once again, Morgan Schneiderlin and Nathaniel Clyne leaving for Manchester United and Liverpool respectively, and Tottenham gazumping them in the race to sign the Atlético Madrid centre-back Toby Alderweireld, who excelled on loan at Southampton last season.

This is the unfortunate reality for a club of Southampton’s stature in the modern era, their success conditioned by the knowledge that they lack the clout to hang on to their best players once they become targets for bigger or more glamorous clubs. The Premier League’s glass ceiling is not just firmly intact, it is reinforced every year, and if shattering it is beyond Liverpool and Tottenham, there is no reason to expect Southampton will bounce through it.

For half a season, Southampton mounted a fearless and refreshing challenge for a place in the top four, yet they were given a reality check in December when they were beaten in successive matches by Arsenal, Manchester City and United. Although it was not a vintage year for the elite sides, there was no change to the status quo. As hard as Southampton pushed, they could not match the depth or firepower of the sides around them as the season wore on, levelling out and finishing 10 points behind Louis van Gaal’s transitional United, who promptly made off with Schneiderlin, the linchpin of Koeman’s midfield.

It means that Southampton may have to scale back their ambitions, although that will not be a problem. There is a realism around the club, a distinct lack of pretentiousness. They are self-aware.

“It’s about aspiration,” Les Reed, the club’s director of football, said. “There’s no point investing all this with an aspiration to survive. You’ve got to have an aspiration to be successful. We don’t know when it will be. But we are putting everything in place to make sure if there’s a fair wind and we achieve it quickly, we’ll take that. If it takes a bit longer, at least we know we have all the right things in the right place to achieve it. The aspiration is to be there at the top and compete with the best.”

However, there is a recognition that those aspirations, admirable as they are, may never be fulfilled and success for Southampton in their current guise does not necessarily equate to qualifying for Europe. It is arguably about striving to play attractive football, battling against the odds, promoting young players and staying true to their values.

Finishing seventh again would be another fine achievement.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Graziano Pellè celebrates after scoring for Southampton in an impressive 3-0 Europa League qualifying victory over Vitesse Arnhem. Photograph: Jason Dawson/Rex

Although there is no doubt that it is an achievable goal, there are bound to be complications if Southampton qualify for the group stages of the Europa League, which would surely place a strain on their resources and affect their league form. They would not be the first side to suffer from the Thursday-Sunday grind and there must be patience if their results dip during the first half of the season.

Not that there is any suggestion that Southampton will not or should not embrace being in Europe. A club that made it out of the third tier of English football only four years ago has an obligation to itself to relish the experience, because otherwise what was the point of working so hard to come this far in such a short space of time, and in any case the Europa League is a terrific competition if it is handled correctly. There were encouraging signs that Southampton will not be out of their depth at this level in their 3-0 victory over Vitesse Arnhem in the first leg of their third-round qualifier on Thursday.

If there is one other cause for concern, it is perhaps the way Southampton’s results tailed off during the run-in: they won five and lost eight of their final 16 matches – and three of those wins came against the sides who went down. There was a feeling that Southampton had been worked out towards the end of the season and the arrivals on loan of Filip Djuricic and Eljero Elia did not have the desired effect of sharpening up their attack.

Southampton will also be seeking improvement in the domestic cup competitions. Defeats by Crystal Palace in the fourth round of the FA Cup and Sheffield United in the quarter-final of the Capital One Cup were disappointing.

Yet these are minor quibbles when placed in the wider context of Southampton’s outstanding campaign, during which they played some breathless football and Koeman demonstrated that he is a clever and tactically versatile manager. The Dutchman mostly favoured an attacking 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation but Southampton used a diamond system when they won 1-0 at United in January and when they suffered injuries in December, they caught Everton by surprise by using a 5-3-2 system and beat Roberto Martínez’s side 3-0.

The squad looks strong again. Southampton have reacted to Fraser Forster’s long-term knee injury by signing Fulham’s experienced Dutch goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg on loan and they have replaced Clyne with the Portuguese right-back Cédric Soares, who made an impressive debut against Vitesse. Once again, it seems that Southampton’s recruitment team have found a gem: the 23-year-old is a swift defender, has been capped by Portugal and played in the Champions League for Sporting Lisbon. He looks like a bargain for £4.3m.

Southampton have also added cover at right-back by signing Cuco Martina, a 25-year-old Curacao international, from FC Twente, while Ryan Bertrand should continue to excel at left-back. Bertrand will be backed up by Matt Targett, a local lad whose performances were distinguished when he was called upon last season.

The area where Southampton are perhaps a tad light is in central defence after the departure of Alderweireld. Is Steven Caulker the answer? The former Tottenham centre-back has been signed on a season-long loan from Queens Park Rangers. Two years ago, he was regarded as one of the best young defenders in the country, yet successive relegations with Cardiff City and QPR have dented his reputation. Perhaps he will rediscover the form that earned him his one and only England cap in the 4-2 friendly defeat by Sweden in 2012 and an unused member of Roy Hodgson’s squad on a couple of occasions since then.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The experienced goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg has joined Southampton on loan from Fulham with Fraser Forster out injured. Photograph: Jason Dawson/Rex

If Southampton end up with the Cardiff and QPR Caulker, rather than the Tottenham and Swansea City Caulker, then it will not be a disaster, because José Fonte can be relied upon to have another solid season and Maya Yoshida will not disgrace himself. Yet there are doubts over whether Florin Gardos can adapt to English football, after the Romanian’s debut season was marred by fitness problems. Alderweireld is a Belgium international who has featured in a Champions League final and it would be a massive boost for Southampton if they could sign someone of his calibre again.

Further forward, Southampton have options in midfield. Losing Schneiderlin’s authority is a blow, but the Frenchman has been replaced by Jordy Clasie, who Koeman knows from his time at Feyenoord. The Dutch international should slot in neatly and there is plenty of competition for places. Victor Wanyama is an excellent tackler, James Ward-Prowse is intelligent and takes a mean set piece, the industrious Steven Davis is Southampton’s most underrated player and there are high hopes for Harrison Reed. Jake Hesketh, a 19-year-old who made his debut last season, will also be prominent in Koeman’s thoughts.

Koeman will want more focus from his attacking players. Sadio Mané has the potential to be one of the best wingers in the league if he can improve his composure in the final third, because he is thrilling to watch when he is in full flow, and Dusan Tadic, a wonderful creator when he is in the mood, must become more consistent.

Up front, the burly Graziano Pellè will lead the line. The Italian had an acceptable first season in England, even though only four of his 12 league goals came after the turn of the year, and he scored against Vitesse last week.

If Pellè is not firing, however, Koeman can tweak his attack. The outstanding Jay Rodriguez is back after the knee injury he suffered in April 2014 and while Shane Long was mostly used on the right last season, he started in the middle in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea in March and his persistence disturbed Gary Cahill and John Terry.

It will also be intriguing to see how the Spanish forward Juanmi copes after his £5m arrival from Málaga. He has often flattered to deceive and not everyone is convinced about a player who made his debut for Spain earlier this year, but the Saints have seen something in him. Southampton have made a habit of getting things right in the past few years. They should continue to reap the benefits of their astute planning this season.