With the sudden resignation of Andrew Scheer as leader of the Conservative party, Canadians are on track to endure a second Conservative leadership race in the span of three years. In the last leadership race we were introduced to fourteen leadership hopefuls ranging from the social conservative branch of the party in the embodiment of Andrew Scheer to the progressive conservative roots of Michael Chong. We all know how the 2017 Conservative leadership race played out. They ran all the way through to the thirteenth round of voting with Andrew Scheer narrowly edging out Maxime Bernier by just under two percent of the vote.

Fast forward to the 2019 election and things did not play out the way that Conservative party members were hoping they would. While Andrew Scheer did increase the share of the Conservative vote by two and a half percent and their seats by twenty-six, he still failed to unseat Justin Trudeau after a particularly rocky first term for the Liberal prime minister.

There is plenty that could be attributed to Scheer being unable to unseat Trudeau. Yet, I would argue that one of the biggest factors that worked against Scheer was his own deeply held convictions on social issues. From being unwilling to march in Pride parades to dodging questions surrounding his current stance on such issues, the Canadian public wasn’t sold on Scheer as a leader for the modern day. This, in and of itself, is a warning shot for the Conservative party in their upcoming leadership race.

It is likely that the 2020 Conservative leadership race will be divided not only along social and fiscal lines but along moderate and radical lines. We will see a contingent within this leadership race that seeks to moderate the Conservative party and present a modest, more friendly face to the Canadian public. On the other hand, the radical contingent will focus more heavily on presenting themselves as strong and more aggressive against the Liberals and Trudeau himself. If you need examples, at a provincial level Brian Pallister fits the moderate role well while Maxime Bernier sufficiently acted as a radical option prior to his departure. The last thing the Conservatives need right now is a hardline leader that could alienate would-be voters.

Two potential candidates that come to mind that would be solidly in the radical contingent would be Pierre Poilievre and Michelle Rempel. Sit through any press conference, twitter conversation or question period and you’ll easily be able to tell what I mean when I say they’re attack dogs and not prime minister material. While they occasionally tap on the substance of policy issues, much of their time is spent in a confrontational manner towards Trudeau and the Liberal party. This confrontational manner does indeed garner positive feedback into their own base but doesn’t sit nearly as well with those Canadians outside of the Conservative party.

Such members of the party have their roles to play. Every party simply needs attack dogs in their ranks as part of the current makeup of how partisan politics works. Mulcair was a perfect oppositional figure for the NDP but failed in his role as a contender for prime minister. Rempel and Poilievre would likely, in my honest opinion, fall into a similar category as Mulcair did.

Politicians have a way of making an impact. Doug Ford was certainly not the cleanest cut politician during the 2018 Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership yet he managed to edge out a win with a more bombastic personality and went on to become the first PC premier of Ontario since 2003. Whether it’s thanks to the polarization of politics or just the desire for more entertaining figures the Conservative party may end up leading itself to a candidate that speaks to them but not to the Canadian population as a whole. Andrew Scheer was a prime example of this. His brand of conservatism played well enough to those in the party but ended up locking the party out of the vote rich province of Quebec and urban centres like Toronto, Hamilton and much of Vancouver.

The Conservative party must have a single goal ahead of them as the rival party to the Liberals and that’s defeating them in the next election. To do this the Conservatives need to elect an electable leader. They desperately need someone from the moderate contingent of the party to become leader for the next election.

As I noted in a recent LeanTossup podcast episode I argue that Rona Ambrose would likely be the best option for the Conservative party if they want to defeat Trudeau. Ambrose is sufficiently experienced after serving as the minister of six separate departments under Harper’s tenure. She is still a fiscal conservative which should sate the fears of those party faithful who see the debt and deficit as a true national concern. Yet Ambrose’s single greatest strength is her ability to project a friendlier, more moderate face for the Conservative party. Ambrose is by no means a stringent social conservative as Scheer was. Nor is she afraid to bring forth bills that are more progressive such as her bill that sought to mandate sexual assault training for federally appointed judges.

I’m not out here endorsing Ambrose by any means but simply pointing out how useful she would be as a leader for the Conservative party. She has the ability to appeal to a broad base of Canadians, potentially unlocking new voters that would otherwise be hesitant to vote blue. Suffice to say this is all contingent upon the fact of Ambrose running in the 2020 Conservative leadership race which, as of the writing of this article, she has not joined the race. Moreover, her election as leader, should she run, would be in the hands of the Conservative party. This may very well be where the Conservative membership puts a hole in their own boat by electing another leader with views that run contrary to the majority of Canadians. Conservative party members will have to make a choice in the coming leadership race. Do they want a bombastic, aggressive leader that fuels their base or do they want a moderate, tempered leader that can navigate the waters of a general election and bring them a win?

Curtis Fric Owner and operator of the non-partisan Polling Canada and Polling USA accounts. See author's posts