I do not mean to alarm you, but this week is probably the biggest week of the season so far in terms of marquee games (please do not try and fact check me). Many teams will have their playoff hopes either dashed, or some will be lucky and have theirs grow. This week can also decide the winners of divisions within a conference. Couple that with quite a few upset spots, and things will be extremely different in the college football world when we wake up on Sunday morning.

Pittsburgh at Virginia

Analysis:

Pittsburgh’s offensive prowess was on full display in their 54-45 win over Duke last Saturday. Pittsburgh had five players run for over 50 yards, led by 149 yards from Qadree Ollison and 137 yards from V’Lique Carter. Their offense has started to lean more and more on their rushing attack as the season has gone on and it has been effective. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, Virginia does have a very good rush defense as they have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in three out of their five conference games. Pittsburgh has had some issues on the defensive side of the ball, with many of their wins coming in shootouts. Their defense showed flashes against Notre Dame, but I do not know if they can tap into that again.

Virginia just had their third consecutive win, as they took down North Carolina 31-21. Virginia is 6-2 so far and has been one of the surprise teams this season. Virginia is built on a strong defense that has only allowed 18 points per game this season, and a multifaceted run game. Quarterback Bryce Perkins has done well at quarterback in the last two games, and been Virginia’s leading rusher in both games as well. Perkins has struggled against better defenses, but Pittsburgh is not one of those. In order to win, Virginia will need to get some stops on defense, and be able to capitalize on offense when they do.

Surprisingly enough, the winner of this game is one the inside track to winning the ACC Coastal.

Prediction:

Virginia comes out with the win 31-24.

Texas A&M at Auburn

Analysis:

Auburn is fresh off of a must needed bye week. Auburn’s last game was a 31-16 win over Ole Miss that snapped a streak of two embarrassing losses. Auburn’s season after the win over Washington has been largely disappointing. Their offensive line has fallen apart. They do not have a game breaking running back that they have had in most seasons prior to this one. The offense seems to almost completely run through Jarrett Stidham. Auburn needs to find a way to stop Texas A&M running back Trayveon Williams. Auburn’s defensive line had six sacks against Ole Miss, so it is possible for them to also make an impact in the run game.

Texas A&M is coming into this game off of a bad loss. Last week they fell 28-13 to Mississippi State. Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald broke his streak of bad passing against Texas A&M. Texas A&M also has their rushing attack completely stifled, but Mississippi State does have an elite defensive line. Texas A&M will need to get a good pass rush on Jarrett Stidham if they want a win in this game.

I think it also is worth mentioning that since Texas A&M’s move to the SEC, (the college football equivalent to Kevin Durant going to the Warriors) the road team has won every game in this matchup.

Prediction:

The road win streak continues as Texas A&M wins 27-24.

Georgia at Kentucky

Analysis:

Georgia seems to have their mojo back after a convincing win over their rival Florida. Jake Fromm threw for 240 yards on 70% completion percentage and three touchdowns as he showed why he still deserves to start. D’Andre Swift has his best game of the season running the ball as he eclipsed 100 rushing yards for the first time all season. Their secondary gave Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks a hard time, allowing barely over 100 yards on 21 passing attempts. Georgia’s offensive line matches up well with Kentucky’s defensive front. Georgia will need to contain Kentucky defensive lineman Josh Allen. Defensively, they need to try and slow down Benny Snell and Kentucky’s run game, and force Terry Wilson to make the throws needed to beat them. An underrated advantage for Georgia is that in a game that could be low scoring, they have one of the best kickers in the country in Rodrigo Blankenship.

Kentucky is coming off of a win over Missouri on the last play of the game. Kentucky did not allow a single first down by Missouri for the entire second half. They also got the win despite a mediocre at best performance from Benny Snell. Quarterback Terry Wilson led a great late game drive where he finally seemed to look composed and not phased in the intense situation as his lack of composure was a key factor in Kentucky’s loss to Texas A&M. Kentucky will need to just get Georgia to deviate toward Kentucky’s style of play. Kentucky will most likely and should try to gash Georgia and dominate time of possession.

This game will likely decide the SEC East, and is possibly the biggest game to ever be played at Kentucky. This game also has the playoff hopes of both teams (mostly Georgia as there is no way Kentucky makes it past Alabama in the SEC Championship) hanging in the balance.

Prediction:

Georgia wins it ugly 20-14.

Florida State at North Carolina State

Analysis:

Neither team in this game had a very good game last week. North Carolina State dropped their second straight game in a shootout to Syracuse last week. After previously being undefeated, North Carolina State has fallen off hard. Despite the loss, Ryan Finley put in a very good performance with 473 passing yards. A big portion of those passing yards were to receiver Kelvin Harmon had 247 receiving yards and two touchdowns. What went wrong for the Wolfpack is that Syracuse also had a more dominant offensive performance. Their defense will need to find a way to do better in this game as Florida State’s offense is much more talented than Syracuse’s (I did not say better because I know Florida State lost to Syracuse, I said more talented).

Florida State is coming off of the worst home loss in the history of the school. Florida State had a downright awful showing against Clemson where their coach accused them of quitting. Their run game completely fell apart as they only had four rushing yards the entire game, and Deondre Francois was sacked five times. Their offense went absolutely nowhere in this game, and only scored any points after the game was decided. Their offense will need to do better. Cam Akers will be need to have a good day running the ball, and Deondre Francois needs to be able to do better in the passing game than he did last week.

Prediction:

North Carolina State ends their losing streak in a 34-24 win.

West Virginia at Texas

Analysis:

Last week, Texas was not able to overcome a terrible first half in a 38-35 loss to Oklahoma State. Their defensive backs were repeatedly burnt by Oklahoma State, and receiver Tylan Wallace’s 222 receiving yards. Texas had two starters in the secondary suspended for the first quarter, and their inexperienced backups got burned by Oklahoma State’s receivers. When the starters were inserted into the game, they did not do much better. Texas could not find a reliable source of offense outside of quarterback Sam Ehlinger who was still not at 100% after injuring his shoulder in Texas’s game against Baylor. Texas’s star receivers Collin Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey provided little help. Texas had a very good second half in this game, but it just was too little too late. Texas’s secondary will also be challenged a lot this week by Will Grier. Grier is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and has one of the best receiving corps in the country as well. This game will be a challenge and Texas corners PJ Locke, Caden Sterns, and Kris Boyd will need to hold their own.

West Virginia’s last game went a little bit better. They had a blowout win over Baylor where they were up 41-0 at halftime. Will Grier had 353 passing yards on just 27 attempts. David Sills had 139 receiving yards, while Gary Jennings had 100 of his own. West Virginia did very well in this game, but their defense has a provoked with letting opposing teams back into games they should not be in. Will Grier has also been known to throw some untimely interceptions. They need to minimize those errors in a big game like this. They also need a corner physical enough to cover Texas’s big receivers. Iowa State receiver Hakeem Butler and Texas Tech receiver Antoine Wesley, who are both 6’5” or taller, had 100 receiving yards against West Virginia. Collin Johnson is 6’6” and Lil’Jordan Humphrey is 6’4”. West Virginia needs to find a way to cover them.

It should be noted that this is a big game, as the loser will have a very hard time making the Big 12 Championship and the winner is set up to make it.

Prediction:

Texas wins an exciting game 38-34.

Penn State at Michigan

Analysis:

Michigan has been on a run these last few weeks. They had last week off, but their last two games were convincing wins over Big 10 foes Michigan State and Wisconsin. Michigan has won these games off of amazing pass defense, and grinding out yards with running back Karan Higdon. In their last two games, opposing quarterbacks have gone 12/45 passing with 166 yards. While they may not have faced elite quarterbacks by any means, those numbers are staggeringly good. Their offense may be near the level of their defense, but with an improving offensive line, they can get the job done. Quarterback Shea Patterson has found his role in the offense and fills it quite well, and Karan Higdon is a great workhorse back who can always be relied upon for yards. What Michigan needs to do is find a way to keep their streak of great performances with pass defense as they play against an elite quarterback in Trace McSorley.

Penn State snapped a streak of poor play with a win against Iowa last week. Their defense greatly limited Iowa in the passing game. Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley threw for just four yards per attempt and two interceptions. KJ Hamler has stepped up as the number one receiver for Penn State, as he had 96 receiving yards against Iowa. In order to win, Penn State will need their offense to find ways to score and never stagnate. Trace McSorley needs to have a better day than he did against Iowa. On the contrary, Penn State’s defense needs to keep up their good play they had against Iowa.

Prediction:

Michigan keeps the train rolling with a 27-17 win.

Missouri at Florida

Analysis:

Both of these teams are coming off of pretty crushing losses. Missouri had their offense completely shut down in the second half by Kentucky, and lost the game on the last play. Drew Lock had a poor showing throwing the ball, and their rushing offense could not eclipse 3 yards per carry. On the bright side, Missouri did hold down Benny Snell to just 67 rushing yards. Missouri will need Drew Lock to perform in this game. Tight end Albert Okwuegbunam and receivers Jalen Knox and Jonathon Johnson will need big games as well.

Florida just had a convincing loss to their rival Georgia, that all but completely eliminated them from SEC Championship contention. It looks as though head coach Dan Mullen will stick it out with Feleipe Franks despite a shaky performance against Georgia. Florida will likely look to running back Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett as their main sources of offense. Florida’s biggest task for this game will be finding a way to slow down Drew Lock. Florida defensive lineman Jachai Polite is a force in the pass rush, so he will be relied upon greatly to try and cause disruption for Missouri.

Prediction:

Florida gets a nice win 30-21.

Notre Dame at Northwestern

Analysis:

Since blowing a lead against Michigan, Northwestern has won four straight games in Big 10 play. That streak was capped off with a season defining win over Wisconsin last week. Northwestern held Wisconsin’s star running back Jonathan Taylor to a season low in yards, and three fumbles. Northwestern running back Isaiah Bowser had 117 rushing yards on the day. One downside of the game for Northwestern was quarterback Clayton Thorson threw three interceptions. Thorson made up for it with two rushing touchdowns. Northwestern’s key to the game will be to try and wear out a Notre Dame defense that is likely still tired from playing a triple option running Navy team last week. They can do this by establishing the run game with Isaiah Bowser.

Notre Dame is sitting pretty at 8-0 after a win over Navy. Ian Book completed 82% of his passes and Dexter Williams ran for 142 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Te’Von Coney had a big day with 14 total tackles. While Notre Dame is the clear better team in this game, I worry that their defense might still be recovering from the game against Navy. Triple option teams are known to tire out opposing defenses and it would not surprise me if Notre Dame’s defense came out sluggish. Notre Dame’s key to the game will stifle Northwestern’s run game and force an inconsistent Clayton Thorson to try and make plays against their very talented secondary.

Prediction:

Notre Dame wins it 31-23 after Northwestern hangs around for awhile.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech

Analysis:

After losing the Red River Shootout to Texas and firing their defensive coordinator, Oklahoma has come out firing these last two weeks. Oklahoma blew out Kansas State last week 51-12 as Kyler Murray had 398 total yards and four total touchdowns. Redshirt freshman running back Kennedy Brooks has emerged as a running threat in the last couple weeks as he added two rushing touchdowns of his own. CeeDee Lamb has 160 receiving yards on the day with two touchdowns also. Needless to say, their offense is probably the most dangerous in the country with the possible exception of Alabama. Their defense has also improved as their last two games have seen them give up seven fewer points than their average with Mike Stoops at defensive coordinator. Oklahoma is also facing a high powered offense in Texas Tech, so they will need to either make some stops, or ensure their offense scores continuously.

Texas Tech has a pretty sloppy performance last week in their loss to Iowa State. Quarterback Alan Bowman had a very freshman like performance throwing three interceptions and taking an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone, forcing a safety. Texas Tech barely made it past one yard per rush attempt, only getting 30 yards on the day. Defensively, they had no answer for Iowa State receiver Hakeem Butler and running back David Montgomery. Unfortunately for Texas Tech, Oklahoma has the best receiving corps in the country. On the bright side, Texas Tech played downright terrible and still only lost to a good team on the road by nine points. Texas Tech, like Oklahoma needs to either make some stops on defense, or ensure their offense scores nearly every time it goes on the field.

This game will be a fun game, and likely a shootout. It is unlikely, but it could possibly even to the level of their extreme game in 2016 (look up highlights to that game right now if you do not know what I am talking about).

Prediction:

Oklahoma wins a barn burner 52-42, where Kyler Murray closes in on Tua Tagovailoa in the Heisman race (I still say Murray should win it).

Alabama at LSU

Analysis:

Now we get to the most anticipated matchup of the week. Both teams also should be ready for this game as they are coming off of a bye week. Alabama last played in a blowout win over Tennessee. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 306 yards and four touchdowns, and receiver Jaylen Waddle broke out with 117 receiving yards. This game was over by the end of the first quarter as it was 28-0 in favor of Alabama. Against LSU, Tua will face his toughest challenge yet in the passing game as LSU defensive backs Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit are an elite duo. A lot will be asked of receivers DeVonta Smith, (who is questionable for the game) Jerry Judy, and Henry Ruggs as they need to help Tua by getting open. Defensively, if Alabama can shut down the run, it is probably all over for LSU. Joe Burrow (to steal a term from the NBA) has the clutch gene, but still is shaky in the passing game. With the need to stop the run game, and dominate the line of scrimmage, this game will be the time for defensive linemen, and highly touted draft prospects Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis, to shine. In a game that could be low scoring, Alabama also needs kicker Joseph Bulovas to minimize his mistakes (kickers have been Alabama’s kryptonite so this is a bigger deal than you would think).

LSU last played in a knockdown drag out 19-3 win over Mississippi State. LSU won this game by winning the battle of field position and forcing turnovers from Mississippi State. In total, LSU had four interceptions on defense. Their offense may not have shined, but it did not need to, and was playing against an extremely good defensive front that actually is better than Alabama’s. Kicker Cole Tracy hit four field goals, and Nick Brossette ran in LSU’s one touchdown on the day. One bad thing that ensued in this game was LSU’s star linebacker, Devin White got ejected for a targeting penalty (seriously this call was terrible) in the second half of the game, and thus will have to miss the first half of this game. LSU is not likely to win, but there is a path to victory. They need a big game from Greedy Williams, Grant Delpit, John Battle, and their secondary. They need Brossette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to establish the run game and be able to withstand some hits from Alabama’s defense. They can win this game by sitting on the ball, and forcing some errors from Alabama’s offense. Cole Tracy is another trick LSU has up their sleeve as he is one of the best kickers in the country, and will likely be called upon in this game at some point to make a big kick if LSU keeps this close.

This game on Saturday night is probably the most high stakes game this rivalry has seen since they played in the National Championship in 2012 (when it should have been Oklahoma State playing instead of Alabama). It is a night game at Death Valley, so expect LSU fans to keep the place rocking.

Prediction:

LSU claws and fights tooth and nail, but just does not have the talent to win as Alabama pulls it out 21-17.

California at Washington State

Analysis:

The Cinderella season continues for Washington State as they came back and won on a last second field goal against Stanford last week. Gardner Minshew has become a great quarterback for Washington State’s air raid offense as he threw for 438 yards last week. Receivers Dezmon Patmon and Jamire Calvin both went over 100 yards receiving on the day to compliment Minshew. What is a bit concerning is that Stanford’s offense threw all over their defense, as they had three receivers with at least 80 receiving yards. Washington State will just need to be able to throw on California’s defense that tortured a very good quarterback in Jake Browning last week.

California is coming into this game off an upset win of their own. The Golden Bears took down Washington last week by a score of 12-10. The only touchdown California scored the entire game was a pick six by linebacker Evan Weaver. With Washington missing star running back Myles Gaskin, California also held down Washington’s run game and was able to win ugly. California will need their to play like they did last week in terms of pass defense. They also need to find some way to produce on offense. The likely candidate is running back Patrick Laird as he had a breakout game against Oregon State a couple weeks ago, and California still does not have a reliable quarterback.

California can not be counted out as they beat Washington State 37-3 in Berkeley one week after Washington State upset USC. This game will also be a Pac 12 After Dark game, so anything can happen.

Prediction:

Washington State gets the win 30-21.

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