Selzer poll: Four-way tie in Iowa

A survey from Bloomberg News — taken by J. Ann Selzer, the pollster behind the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll — shows a close battle for first place in the caucus state:

A Bloomberg News poll shows Cain at 20 percent, Paul at 19 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Gingrich at 17 percent among the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating contests seven weeks away. ... Advertisement The poll reflects the race’s fluidity, with 60 percent of respondents saying they still could be persuaded to back someone other than their top choice, and 10 percent undecided. Paul’s support is more solidified than his rivals, while Cain’s is softer. All of the major contenders have issue challenges to address. ... Texas Governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann, who both once were strong contenders in polls of the Republican race, have seen support plummet. Perry, who is running ads in Iowa, gets 7 percent support in the Bloomberg survey; Bachmann, who won the Iowa Straw Poll in August, is backed by 5 percent.

Those numbers confirm that the Newt phenomenon is real in Iowa (see the poll Maggie posted on this yesterday) and underscore why Iowa's still a risky bet for Romney. He holds on to his share of the vote, pretty much no matter what, but it's apparently easier — at least at this point — for the baggage-laden and gaffe-prone Gingrich to get close to the top than it is for Romney to lift his ceiling.

Paul's strong position is also worth waching: If other polls start to place him in the high teens in the early states, it'll show that he's drawing votes from beyond his libertarian activist base. And with the other Republican candidates as poorly organized in Iowa as they are, Paul's fervent corps of supporters could have an outsized impact in the caucuses.

His campaign chairman, Jesse Benton, told me last week that Paul views caucus states as his best opportunity to rack up delegates and give Romney a run for his money in the nomination fight.

This article tagged under: Iowa

2012 Elections