Warner Brothers hopes to solidify a franchise this weekend, as the second of five planned installments in the Fantastic Beasts series hits theaters, amidst competition from Fox’s R rated heist thriller Widows, as well as Paramount’s comedy Instant Family.

The original Fantastic Beasts launched on the same weekend two years ago, and resulted in a performance that could most accurately be described as ‘good not great’. After starting with a somewhat lackluster $74 million, the Potter-spinoff legged it out to a respectable $234 million. The real story, however, was its overseas performance, where the fantasy epic tallied a massive $580 million. The new Beasts is arriving with troublesome reviews and a notable lack of fanfare, leaving some to wonder if it is set to open well below its predecessor; tracking has it around $65-70 million. Any kind of drop would be fairly bad news, especially considering Warner Brothers wants to milk this story for another three films. Anything over $70 million gives it a pass, but if it winds up closer to $65 million – or even lower – then it may be in trouble. Currently, the Rotten Tomatoes score rests at a nasty 49%, the lowest of any installment in the Potter franchise.

The original Fantastic Beasts also launched alongside essentially zero competition, while the same cannot be said for The Crimes of Grindelwald; both Widows and Instant Family are tracking for debuts in the mid teens, with presales giving an edge to the former. Fox’s $40 million drama is riding a wave of incredible critical reception, as well as some buzz from festival screenings. The heist thriller carries a straight forward and well marketed premise, and also benefits from a stacked cast and excellent director. However, it may wind up facing a similar situation as February’s Annihilation, another critically acclaimed genre title featuring a diverse cast of women that ultimately failed to connect with audiences, opening to just $11 million. An opening that low seems unlikely for Widows, as early reviews claim seem to imply that it is a much more accessible and crowd-pleasing film than Annihilation (which is, admittedly, a fairly low bar). An opening over $15 million would be a solid start for the film which should see fairly strong legs throughout November and into December.

Instant Family is also debuting this weekend, and is targeting a similar debut to Widows. The Paramount film carries a surprisingly high $48 million budget, much of which is likely due to paychecks for its two stars, Rose Byrne and Mark Wahlberg. $48 million certainly seems a big high for a comedy-drama, which can be a bit of a hard sell at the box office. Still, anything in the teens to $20 million range would be an okay start.

Additionally, the Oscar contender Green Book is opening in limited release ahead of a nationwide expansion over Thanksgiving weekend.

Predictions

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – $69.7 million The Grinch – $35 million Bohemian Rhapsody – $20 million Instant Family – $15.5 million Widows – $15 million