A proposed Brampton LRT route — part of a $1.6-billion project the province has committed to fund — that Mayor Linda Jeffrey is aggressively endorsing currently attracts only three per cent of an LRT’s capacity, according to the city’s own transit ridership data, obtained by the Star.

With an LRT capacity of 15,000 riders per hour per direction, the current Main St. average of 200 riders per hour per direction on weekdays isn’t close to the realm of high-order transit demand. Even during peak periods on weekdays, the Main St. route between Steeles Ave. and Brampton’s downtown has a ridership of about 450 passengers an hour, assuming all nine buses on the route during rush hour are full; this represents three per cent of an LRT’s capacity.

“The figures you choose to reference in your email are only a snapshot in time,” Jeffrey said in an email response Monday. “They represent the current usage along a line that has few transit solutions in its current form. The (Hurontario-Main LRT) will be a regional game changer for transit and will result in higher usage along the lines.”

Jeffrey said that the Main St. LRT would help the city land its first university, and would move students to and from a future campus. “What is important to realize is that the numbers you cite are yesterday’s transit planning, not necessarily indicative of the future, which is where I want our city to go.”

Jeffrey, a former Liberal cabinet minister at Queen’s Park, said the Main St. route should go forward, as it is supported by the province and Metrolinx.

She provided no future projections for ridership along the route and did not present ridership data at a July 8 special meeting to decide the future LRT route. That decision was deferred for six weeks, after a record number of more than 130 residents delegated or corresponded with council during the meeting.

Consultant Steer Davies Gleave, which did part of the Hurontario-Main LRT assessment for which Brampton and Mississauga paid $16 million, said in a report, regarding the Main St. LRT route into downtown Brampton: “The population within this character area is forecast to reach approximately 11,300 by 2031, an increase of approximately 1,500 persons from 2008 to 2031, or just under 3% of the total population growth forecast for the (entire Hurontario-Main LRT) corridor. Between 2008 and 2031, employment growth within this character area is forecast to increase modestly by approximately 200 employees.”

The issue of where the LRT should go has divided the city. Councillors and residents have questioned what Brampton taxpayers will have to pay in local capital costs and operating expenses.

Brampton councillors are now warning that Jeffrey’s LRT plan will be worse than Toronto’s much-maligned Sheppard subway, which, according to TTC chair Councillor Josh Colle (open Josh Colle's policard), costs $10 per ride in subsidies.

At least five of Brampton’s 11 members of council are against the Main St. route. They say they believe there isn’t enough ridership or much future growth potential because of environmental and development constraints along Main St. None of the five councillors contacted by the Star said they had seen the current ridership data.

“These numbers can’t support an LRT,” said Councillor John Sprovieri, after the Star shared the current Main St. ridership data with him. “Obviously, the numbers aren’t there for Main St. so they didn’t want to show us the numbers. I asked for numbers, but staff said they didn’t have them. How could we have been expected to vote on the future of this project on July 8 without the facts we need?”

“This LRT on Main St. sounds like the Sheppard subway in Toronto, maybe worse.”

Councillors are not debating the provincially backed LRT route between the Mississauga border and Steeles Ave. But last year council voted 10-1 to remove the proposed route north of Steeles along Main St. from consideration. Jeffrey is now trying to reverse that decision and has the support of at least four colleagues on council. Councillor Michael Palleschi, who called for a six-week deferral on the LRT route decision at the July 8 meeting, is the only undecided member.

“These questions, and others, are precisely why I asked Mayor Jeffrey to lead council in finding a positive solution,” Palleschi told the Star, after the current Main St. ridership data was shared with him.

Metrolinx, the provincial transit agency, told the Star last week that future ridership for the entire proposed Brampton section of the LRT is: “12,500 during the AM Peak Period, 6 to 9 a.m.,” citing projections for 2031.

Transit ridership projections have been notoriously off the mark. Toronto’s Sheppard subway, for example, was projected to have 14,000 riders per hour, but only has 5,000.

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Brampton Councillor Jeff Bowman, along with Sprovieri and other members, said he doesn’t understand why the LRT isn’t being planned for Queen St., the city’s high density “Urban Growth Centre” corridor, designated by the province under its Places to Grow Act.

“If the numbers are accurate, then it seems to me that more discussion should be focused on other connection modes . . . or an alternate LRT route that better serves Brampton, prior to making a quick decision that has such long-term implications,” Bowman said.

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