History shows that large parts of the Warringah electorate have been prepared to vote against the Liberal Party. Between 1991 and 2007, the state seat of Manly was independent.

I was the independent state member for eight of those years, and locals told me they enjoyed having a representative who could work without fear or favour and not be under the influence of the party machine.

Tony Abbott with independent Warringah challenger Zali Steggall at a forum last month. Credit:AAP

Now, after 97 years, the federal seat of Warringah may be on the verge of voting out its long-running Liberal member, former prime minister Tony Abbott, despite his technically safe margin of 11 per cent.

I ran against Abbott – unsuccessfully – in 2001. That was the Tampa election, when the swing was to the Coalition. Even without Tampa and the spectre of boat arrivals, the mood was different. Liberals were not clamouring for change.