WILL the coronavirus pandemic deliver a terminal blow to the campaign for Scottish independence?

Not on your nelly.

Will it re-invigorate and force an update of the case for independence? Hopefully, yes.

It was only a matter of time before one newspaper commentator observed that an independent Scotland would be too small to manage a Rishi Sunak-style Covid-19 bailout, and then, in a frenzy of relief to be back on familiar turf, the rest piled in.

Tom Gordon started the ball rolling with an article in The Herald, followed by Magnus Linklater, whose Times article quotes an anti-independence book written by John Lloyd, and though Chris Deerin in The New Statesman credits Nicola Sturgeon with “impressive grace, empathy and honesty” he concludes: “The case for separation, like everything else, must be addressed anew.”

That’s actually true.

It’s tempting to react defensively to these columns – which essentially boil down to the observation that “Britain has a lot of money”, the future is unpredictable, money will be very tight and independence negotiations hyper-tricky – but those are not new arguments.

So, let’s take it all as constructive criticism.

Nicola Sturgeon will indeed have to revise plans for independence in light of the coronavirus, but then so will everyone else, including the UK Government. Strangely, though, the commentariat isn’t so concerned about Boris Johnson’s dangerous insistence on completing the economy-pulping change of Brexit by December. Now polling guru John Curtice has described the Prime Minister’s agenda as “torn to shreds”, maybe we’ll see more critical attention to the long-term health of the Good Ship Britannia. OK, maybe not.

But let’s accept the point. No-one from a local library to the United Nations will be able to continue as if coronavirus hadn’t happened. Still, as undecided Scots look at the balance of arguments for and against the Union – emotional, financial, cultural and practical – do the changes of recent months really bolster the case for the status quo?

Let’s consider one 24-hour period this week.

Wednesday, 16.17: The British Government’s decision not to be involved in an EU ventilator scheme, “was a political decision” – Sir Simon McDonald, Foreign Office permanent under-secretary.

Wednesday, 17.20: “There was no political decision not to take part in that scheme.” – Matt Hancock, Health Secretary.

Wednesday, 21.00: “Unfortunately, due to a misunderstanding, I inadvertently told the committee that it was a political decision not to participate.” – Simon McDonald

Thursday, 6.31: Piers Morgan (hardly Captain Anarchy) – “The idea Sir Simon McDonald just misspoke about the EU procurement scheme is nonsense … he’s being strong-armed by the Government into doing this ridiculous, embarrassing U-turn to cover their backsides.”

In case that looks like an unfairly dreadful time to select, let’s try the previous 96-hour period.

Saturday: Robert Jenrick, Housing Minister, announces a British plane will deliver 40,000 medical gowns from Turkey on Sunday.

Sunday: British Government formally requests the aforementioned supplies.

Monday: British Government finally completes paperwork while RAF plane sits on runway at Ankara.

Tuesday: Time passes.

Wednesday: More time passes.

So, was that just a wee presentational issue – a relatively young minister overkeen to assure a worried public that help is coming? Please. The British Government’s got serious form on trying to hoodwink voters. Ministers assured us that PPE was finally reaching English hospitals when it visibly hadn’t moved from the central depot and that manufacturers were switching production to ventilators when they hadn’t even been contacted. Indeed, the only thing that distracted from Jenrick’s Turkish travails was the mother of all empty assurances revealed by The Sunday Times. While we thought ministers were “working hard” to contain the unfolding crisis, there was inaction for five fateful weeks and no-shows by Boris Johnson at five Cobra crisis planning meetings.

These aren’t wee missteps. These are behavioural defaults that sit deeply embedded in Britain’s so-called “natural party of government”.

Do other pan-British feelings of solidarity help camouflage those sobering realities?

Yes, it’s true Scots clapping on doorsteps are doubtless applauding the efforts of super-humanly, caring NHS staff right across Britain. But Scottish independence was never about snubbing folk across the Border. It’s about leaving the broken structures that leave those heroic workers dependent on charity raised by a centenarian shuffling round his garden, or a planned one-off bonus to make things easier for a while. Part-privatisation has hobbled the health service south of the Border and made competition for resources, underfunding, under-resourcing and bankrupt hospitals entirely normal. But which TV interviewer or opposition party is even raising that?

I WOULDN’T wish the broken structures of the NHS in England on my worst enemy. And yet, there’s no getting away from it. Millions of voters south of the Border re-elected the party that devised England’s chronically underfunded National Health Service, dreamt up an immigration bill that’s just been dropped lest it stops the flow of foreign care workers, and built completely unfit for purpose social care and social security systems.

Of course, that’s only one British Government and, theoretically at least, others are available.

But really? The case for the Union depends on the increasingly fanciful notion that a progressive government (in Scottish terms) could ever get elected south of the Border. Yip – one more push.

If anyone thinks independence arguments are stale, that one’s bouncing off the flair.

So yes, I’m moved to tears watching accounts of selfless NHS staff in England. But then I thank my lucky stars I live here. And I’ll bet I’m not alone.

So, let’s take the challenge, and consider the long-term future for Scotland.

It’s one in which the present Covid oil-shock will make permanent changes to the political and economic landscape. Now we’ve seen what governments can do when they finally hit “crisis” mode, voters must demand the same level of urgency and society-wide buy-in to tackle the climate crisis next. We’ve watched vacuum cleaning companies switch to make ventilators, handbag manufacturers adapt to make face-masks and distilleries volunteer to make hand gel. We get it. With leadership and support, big change is possible. Scotland needs to repurpose its economy in the same transformational way – shifting Scotland’s world-beating expertise in oil and gas extraction into systems and technologies for an oil-free future. Our small but smart Nordic and Baltic neighbours are already on that case, creating joint investment programmes. But Scotland can’t join. We aren’t an independent country and we don’t even control energy policy. Is this how we best tackle change – with both hands tied firmly behind our backs?

So, if I could commission an opinion poll right now, here are the questions I’d lay before Scottish voters.

Who do you most trust right now?

1. UK Government

2. Scottish Government

Who do you think will lead us most safely out of lockdown?

1. UK Government

2. Scottish Government

Who behaves in the most more competent, caring way?

1. UK Government

2. Scottish Government

Who will most quickly transform Scotland into a sustainable green economy?

1. UK Government

2. Scottish Government

Maybe I’m hopelessly biased, but I can’t see option one coming top many times. Of course, voters need to see a wholehearted energetic programme for independence once Covid isn’t occupying every waking moment for Nicola Sturgeon and her ministerial team.

But right now, I’d guess most folk are weighing the evidence and watching the balance shift. The British Government simply cannot be trusted. It may be powerful. It may have a lot of our cash. We may have difficulty believing that our small country can see us through bad times and good, just like Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Denmark and New Zealand.

Small is beautiful. Every crisis proves it – and this one’s no exception.

That’s the challenge for independence supporters to communicate.

And it has been for decades long before Covid-19.

Scotland is in lockdown. Shops are closing and newspaper sales are falling fast. It’s no exaggeration to say that the future of The National is at stake. Please consider supporting us through this with a digital subscription from just £2 for 2 months by following this link: www.thenational.scot/subscribe. Thanks – and stay safe.