“We face unprecedented risk to life and property in coming days ... with hot weather, windy weather, and unprecedented dryness,” the Premier told media on Thursday. The potential impact zone on Saturday Credit:Emergency Victoria “The Bureau of Meteorology cannot recall a time when we have had so little moisture in the air this early in the year.” The extreme conditions forecast for Saturday Firefighters look at four things when trying to work out how dangerous a day is: wind speed, temperature, humidity and fuel conditions. Saturday poses extreme challenges on all four fronts.

Temperatures are expected to reach the low 40s in East Gippsland and the mid 40s in Victoria’s alpine region. Wind speeds in the region are expected to be about 30km/h. Humidity will be extremely low, and East Gippsland has been in drought for several years – with an extremely hot, dry December the cherry on top. Fires burning out of control at Mallacoota in east Gippsland in Victoria on Thursday night. Credit:Justin McManus “It’s the combination of really dry vegetation and also really low relative humidity – it’s less than 10 per cent,” said James Todd, spokesman for Emergency Management Victoria's state control centre. Making things worse, the Bureau of Meteorology is expecting a change to push across from the west of the state on Saturday afternoon.

Historically, wind changes lead to our most violent and threatening bushfires because they turn the flank of a fire into its front, dramatically expanding the area of fire. Loading “You could have an eastern flank of 20 or 30 kilometres,” Emergency Management Commissioner Andrew Crisp warned on Thursday. Such a change led to several communities being engulfed in flames on Monday night. The shift means the winds will turn three times on Saturday in East Gippsland. In the morning, the wind will blow south. Before the change it will switch to blow east. Then, when the change passes through, it will move again, blowing north.

These swirly and chaotic conditions make the fires very difficult to fight. Hence firefighters hope the evacuation means they won’t have to stay and defend communities and houses and can instead focus on strategic firefighting – slowing the run of the fire and hemming it in. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video “We want to focus on controlling fires rather than diverting resources to defending communities," said Mr Todd. Fire crews have told some communities in Victoria’s north east they will simply be unable to stop fires burning nearby.

"We do not have anyone out there actively suppressing this fire," deputy incident controller Ron Patterson told a community meeting in Tallangatta on Thursday, according to the Border Mail. Loading “We will have no way of stopping it in these conditions,” Why these bushfires are so dangerous The extremely low humidity and tinder-dry fuel is making the fires behave in ways experienced firefighters have not seen before.

They are used to holding the line during the day as fires rage, and then using the coolness of night to get on top of them. With these blazes, that has not happened. “These fires are moving really rapidly even at night, up to 20 or 30 kilometres. Historically that has not been our experience – often things calm down at night,” said Mr Todd. The fire that menaced Mallacoota started after a dry lightning strike near Cann River on Sunday night. It travelled 20 kilometres overnight and holidaymakers awoke to suddenly find themselves hemmed in on the coast. Fighting a fire in darkness is hard. Fighting a moving fire at night in the hilly country of north and east Victoria is near impossible.