So according to the article there are three major issues endangering Lebanon security and wellbeing 1- Lebanon three economic pillars are suffering badly 2- Shia militia actions in Lebanon invite ISIS and sectarian conflict 3- the Syrian refugees threat



However we might consider few facts about Lebanon

1- if regional conflicts take place in the region major countries such as Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Iran, or Yemen then Lebanon in a safe heaven

If civil wars can't break in such countries and yet tension remain s escalates then the explosion will happen in Lebanon. Based on this calculus the regional war won't destabilise Lebanon; this is why Lebanon has been safe inspite of three years war on its immediate borders in Syria.





Secondly Lebanon wars are not inflamed by byproduct player such as ISIS. Traditionally Lebanon civil wars are ignited by conflicting definitions of Lebanon by major players such as France, Israel, the USA, Egypt, Syria, Iran, to less degree Iraq and Saudi: France wants Lebanon a center in the East for influence. Israel prefers to define Lavent as Jewish Palestine, Christian Lebanon, and Muslim Syria " by the way we Arabs agree with such elegant definition ". The USA prefers to define Lebanon as finance and banking services, media center " Robert Fisk for example", and intelligence bases " Robert Baer for example" and many Lebs are happy with such definition.



Egypt imagines Lebanon as meeting center that links together all different fabrics of Arab society and also ad media, and artistic center, Iran defines Lebanon as expansionist hub, Saudi simply encounters Iran who provide Shia with weapons and Saudi encounter that by providing Sunni with money "" if Iran and Saudi are already fighting in Iraq and Syria it is expected that Saudi financial aids to Lebanon will drop significantly and if Saudi is reminded of Lebanon needs to financial support it will help Lebanon military.



The civil war in Lebanon occurred because the main unfortunate conflict between Arabs and Israel ceased to exist by brokering peace deal between Egypt and Israel in 1975 , with Yasser Arafat organisation and Palestinian heavy presence in Lebanon, with Syria trying to reconfigure its security sphere and compensate Egypt withdraw by enlarging its military presence around her specifically Lebanon, with henry kissinger giving Hafez Al Assad the green light to occupy Lebanon, with Israel secret approval of Assad intervention, with Iran replacing revolutionary Egypt, etc Lebanon civil war wad unavoidable etc., with Mtahm Begin trying to convince Bashir Gemayal that he helped him to become Lebanon president to adopt his definition of Lebanon as peaceful Christian Lebanon to Jewish Palestine and Muslim Syria, but Gemayal wouldn't want to listen that Mtahm Begin reminded him that Israel forces are around Lebanon and Gemayal wouldn't understand so Mtahm give the order and Gemayal the next day was burnt; barely his body was recognised...





Lebanon receives less attention because it is no longer the major front of Sunni Shia conflict and maybe this Dubi thing took over some of Lebanon roles.



The Syrian refugees are not militarily motivated like the Palestinians in 1970s who left Jordan after violent war with Jordan regime and reached Lebanon as base for their military development, where Palestinians become immediately the most powerful entity in Lebanon. It is different with the Syrian refugees, if Syrian refugees turned into military power; they will not operate in Lebanon, they will operate in Syria. .



