× Expand Kirsten Schmitt Christian Yelich, who will receive the biggest scheduled raise, going from a $7 million commitment to $9.75 million next year.

Regardless of what happens over the next few weeks, one thing is clear: The Milwaukee Brewers have stepped out of their “rebuilding” phase and now stand with both feet inside their window to contend. Over the last two regular seasons, they’ve won 182 games, the seventh-highest total in all Major League Baseball and the third-most in the National League. To continue to contend, however, they’re going to have to spend like a contender.

The Brewers came into the 2018 season with an Opening Day payroll just under $91 million, a big step forward from $63 million expenditures in ’16 and ’17, but still ranked in the bottom half of baseball in that category. Mark Attanasio and company deserve credit for their willingness to spend to add additional pieces during the season, and David Stearns and company deserve credit for everything they’ve accomplished on a below-average budget, but their options are going to be limited this winter.

Guaranteed Money

Several of the Brewers’ existing long-term contracts escalate, albeit slightly, for 2019. Christian Yelich will receive the biggest scheduled raise, going from a $7 million commitment to $9.75 million next year. Chase Anderson (due a $1.75 million raise), Lorenzo Cain ($1 million) and Eric Thames ($1 million) will each also receive extra money in ’19, although those expenditures are offset a bit by smaller figures due to Ryan Braun (dropping from $20 to $19 million) and Jhoulys Chacín (down from $8.75 to $6.75 million). Despite Matt Albers’ disappointing season, the Brewers are also on the hook for $2.5 million for him again next year. MLB contracts are guaranteed, so, barring a trade, those seven players will be receiving $65.5 million from the Brewers.

Contract Options

In the days following the 2018 season, the Brewers will have decisions to make on four contract options, some likely easier than others. It seems likely they’ll opt not to pay Joakim Soria $10 million to return in 2019, and Jordan Lyles’ $3.5 million for next year probably isn’t happening either, although the Brewers will have to pay those two players a combined $1.25 million in buyouts. Jeremy Jeffress’ $3.175 million option is probably an easy call, as he would make more than that via arbitration if the Brewers declined it. Mike Moustakas will be the most interesting decision: He’s very quickly made himself a valuable member of the Brewers, and it’s not hard to picture a scenario where the organization exercises their half of his $15 million mutual option. (He may seek more money via free agency anyway.) So, that’s another minimum of $3.175 million, with a possibility of $18.175.

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Arbitration

The arbitration system is where things really start to get expensive for the Brewers. MLB Trade Rumors released their 2019 arbitration salary projections last week, and they show the Brewers with 15 eligible players (including Jeffress). All told, it would cost something in the neighborhood of $47.44 million to keep all of them.

There is one likely easy opportunity to cut costs in the group: Stephen Vogt is projected to receive $3.065 million for ’19, and there’s virtually no way the Brewers pay that given his injury situation.

Beyond that, however, the decisions get a little tougher. Jonathan Schoop made $8.5 million in 2018 and is projected to receive $10.1 million next year. The most likely move is probably non-tendering him to avoid paying that but doing so might be a painful admission of failure for an organization that gave up a fair amount to acquire him. Domingo Santana had a disappointing start to the 2018 season and spent much of the year in AAA. MLBTR projects he’ll make around $2 million if he stays with the Brewers, which would be a decent risk on a player who hit 30 home runs in 2017. And Erik Kratz may retire and save the Brewers his projected $1.7 million but sticking around to collect that money would nearly double the veteran backup’s career earnings.

Even if Vogt, Schoop, Kratz and Tyler Saladino (due a projected $1 million) do not return, that still leaves the Brewers with about $28.4 million needed to retain Travis Shaw, Corey Knebel, Jimmy Nelson, Hernan Perez, Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Santana, Manny Pina, Dan Jennings and Xavier Cedeno.

Free Agency

Assuming all the above holds true, the Brewers will have around $97 million committed to 18 players for the 2019 season ($112 million with Moustakas), and a minimum of seven open spots on the Opening Day roster. Filling those seven spots with players making the league minimum drives their Opening Day payroll to around $100.5 million, which would be the third-highest in franchise history.

That figure, however, assumes that the Brewers allow Moustakas, Soria, Schoop, Wade Miley, Gio Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson and others to leave and don’t replace them with any free agents. This would likely create some challenges—both on the roster and in public—if the Brewers give off the impression of not trying to take the next step to retain or improve upon this year’s roster. The team is going to have some tough decisions to make in the months ahead as it starts planning for 2019. Barring some kind of fire sale, however, the days of the organization being able to get away with being thrifty are fast coming to an end.