A US B-1 bomber flanked by fighter jets during a show of force over the Korean Peninsula in September 2016. Credit:AP The US often sends powerful warplanes over the peninsula in times of heightened animosity with North Korea. Analysts say flight data from North Korea's second ICBM test conducted on Friday night showed that a broader part of the US mainland is now in range of Pyongyang's weapons. But China is betting that US President Donald Trump won't make good on his threats of a military strike against North Korea, with Beijing continuing to provide a lifeline to Kim Jong-un's regime. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson singled out China and Russia as "economic enablers" of North Korea after Kim on Friday test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the second time in a matter of weeks. While Tillerson said the US wants a peaceful resolution to the tensions, the top American general called his South Korean counterpart after the launch to discuss a potential military response.

Kim Jong-un, centre, smiles during a missile launch in March. Credit:AP China on Saturday condemned the latest test while calling for restraint from all parties. Despite Kim's provocations, analysts said Beijing still sees the collapse of his regime as a more immediate strategic threat, and doubts Trump would pull the trigger given the risk of a war with North Korea that could kill millions. "The military option the Americans are threatening won't likely happen because the stakes will be too high," said Liu Ming, director of the Korean Peninsula Research Centre at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. "It's a pretext and an excuse to pile up pressure on China. It's more like blackmail than a realistic option." North Korea's first launch of a Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile, which took place in early July. Credit:Korean Central News Agency via AP Relations between the world's biggest economies have soured after an initial honeymoon between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US last month sanctioned a regional Chinese bank, a shipping company and two Chinese citizens over dealings with North Korea, which could be a precursor to greater economic and financial pressure on Beijing.

Trump has expressed periodic public frustration with Beijing over the pace of its efforts to curtail Kim. On Saturday he again linked China's actions to the broader US-China trade relationship. Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech in Inner Mongolia on Sunday during a military parade to commemorate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army. Credit:AP "I am very disappointed in China," he said in a series of Twitter posts. "Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!" Still, China's biggest fears remain a collapse of Kim's regime that sparks a protracted refugee crisis and a beefed-up US military presence on its border. Experts believe North Korea may have the capacity to strike the mainland United States. Credit:AP

It has repeatedly called for both sides to step back, proposing the US halt military drills in the region and North Korea freeze weapons tests. The US has dismissed that proposal, saying North Korea must first be willing to discuss rolling back its nuclear program. North Korea is "probably correct" in its view that it can survive sanctions long enough to build its arsenal to the point where the world has to accept it as a nuclear state, according to Andrew Gilholm, director of North Asia analysis at Control Risks Group. The US is likely to make a "dramatic move" this year in a bid to stop that from happening, he said. South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Credit:AP "If the US really loses patience and moves against major Chinese banks or firms it will certainly impact North Korea's financing, but I don't see Beijing making a radical policy change under that kind of pressure," Gilholm said from Seoul. "It'll likely harden China's insistence that Washington has to deal with Pyongyang, not coerce China into strangling it."

China's relations with its neighbour and ally have become more fraught, though China still accounts for about 90 per cent of North Korea's trade. North Korea warned China of "grave consequences" earlier this year after it banned coal imports, while Beijing's Communist Party media stepped up criticism of Kim's regime. North Korea's decision to launch the ICBM on Friday from Jagang, a province on the border with China, could further complicate ties. Meanwhile China's dispute with South Korea over a missile shield risks flaring again. Seoul has partially installed a US system known as THAAD despite Chinese protests. It had halted that rollout under the new administration of President Moon Jae-in, but after the ICBM test Moon called for talks with the US on temporarily deploying more launchers. China warned on Saturday that THAAD would disrupt the region's strategic balance.

Since taking office, Moon has sought to engage North Korea, calling for peace talks and saying he'd meet Kim under the right conditions. Moon's dovish views on North Korea make it likely he'll oppose a US missile strike on North Korea. US Marine General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also warned in June that an armed conflict with North Korea would leave Seoul facing casualties "unlike anything we've seen in 60 or 70 years". To placate Trump, China will likely take some moderate measures against North Korea without doing anything that could collapse the regime, said Gilholm. Loading "China has a lot of room to step up pressure on Pyongyang while staying well short of a really destabilising 'cut-off'," he said. "Personally I don't think North Korea is going to roll over and give up its nuclear survival card even under a life-threatening level of economic pressure."

Reuters, Bloomberg