The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) says that, if the Federal Communications Commission gives Hollywood a waiver on Selectable Output Control, 20 million HDTV sets will cease to function as they did when they were bought by U.S. consumers. These controls limit the ability of consumers to send a broadcast to both their sets and other devices, but current FCC policy prohibits SOC use. The request for a waiver from that policy comes from the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA).

The CEA is not pleased. "The MPAA has not demonstrated why it should be permitted to disable the features and functionality of a consumer's lawfully-purchased HDTV set," three CEA Vice Presidents told the FCC in a meeting on Tuesday.

Might the 20 million figure be alarmist? Public Knowledge says the estimate is not high enough. The advocacy group's Gigi Sohn, Alex Curtis, and Jef Pearlman also met with the FCC this week, arguing that CEA's figures don't get at the extent of the impact.

"This number actually underestimates the size of the problem," PK's representatives charge, "because while none of those 20 million HDTVs will work if SOC is used to turn off analog outputs, an unknown number of additional home entertainment systems, DVRs, and other consumer electronics devices that rely on analog connections will also be effectively turned off, even if the TVs also have digital inputs."

We're too valuable

As Ars Technica has reported, the FCC launched a proceeding in June to decide whether to let video program distributors employ SOC, which the agency currently forbids, on behalf of the big movie studios. The MPAA wants an exemption on that restriction for high-definition movies that are broadcast prior to their release on DVD.

Selectable Output Control allows a cable or satellite programming distributor to shut off analog and/or digital output on selected broadcasts, an option that MPAA says it wants studios to have if they begin to distribute early-run movies on cable. The studios want to be able to close down the analog route and offer only digital content, which they see as more secure.

"The Petitioners' theatrical movies are too valuable in this early distribution window to risk their exposure to unauthorized copying," MPAA wrote to the FCC in May. "Distribution over insecure outputs would facilitate the illegal copying and redistribution of this high value content, causing untold damage to the DVD and other 'downstream' markets."

Since then dozens of companies, content providers, and public interest groups have weighed in on the question—many charging that waiver request is vague and will give Hollywood and their cable partners too much power over home video equipment. Meanwhile PK and CEA have been having a sort of statistical competition over how many consumer devices they think that this proposal will affect in some way.

Here's how CEA gets its figures. Its Market Activity Reports and Analysis (MARA) follows 30 product categories, in which it tracks factory-to-U.S. dealer consumer gadget shipments. By this means, the trade group says manufacturers delivered almost 86 million HDTVs to U.S. stores from 1998 though September of 2008. 29 percent of those receivers displayed HDTV content via a "component analog" connection alone; that adds up to about 25 million sets.

CEA sets aside a fifth of those HDTVs to account for unused or dumped units. That still leaves more than 20 million HDTVs affected by SOC—that is, "permanently incapable of receiving and displaying programming accessed via set-top boxes for which a content owner or distributor invokes Selectable Output Control."

But wait, says Public Knowledge. CEA's estimate does not include DVRs and other devices that depend exclusively on analog connections. "Further, because the waiver seeks the ability to turn off all existing analog and digital outputs, no current equipment is immune," the group warns.

CEA recognizes some of this in a footnote to their filing. Its 25 million figure doesn't include home systems installed with analog connections, the trade group acknowledges. Nor does it factor in "the large number of HDTVs with an insufficient number of digital interfaces to support multiple HD devices (e.g. monitor, set-top box, DVR). Consumers who purchased these HDTVs may be forced to buy expensive splitters in order to view SOC-triggered content."

Beyond the question of how many devices will be affected by an SOC waiver, there seems to be a trust problem here, as evident from CEA's concluding remarks.

MPAA promises "vaguely to distribute some unspecified type and amount of programming, somewhat earlier (but how much earlier they refuse to specify) than they are able to do so now," CEA writes. "This promise hardly amounts to an important public purpose."

Cheaper than a babysitter

Ars Technica contacted various MPAA staffers about these concerns and got a bunch of e-mail auto-responder replies. The intent of the studios is stated as being only to use SOC for the limited purpose of controlling the output for early run, pre-DVD release movies. MPAA filings have argued that early run, pre-DVD release films will benefit consumers who can't afford or can't physically go to the movies.

"Consumers would be able to order from the comfort of their homes movies that are recently released in theaters," the MPAA wrote to the FCC in its original Petition for Expedited Relief. "At least some segment of nearly every demographic would find this option attractive when unable to go to the movie theater. For example, physically challenged or elderly consumers who have limited mobility would have greater choice in movie viewing options. It would similarly benefit parents who want to see a new movie, but who cannot find or afford a babysitter."

It's unclear when the FCC will decide this issue. The formal deadline for comments and replies on the proceeding expired months ago. Although the agency granted the MPAA's request for an expedited comment period, making a call on this question doesn't seem very high on the Kevin Martin administration's list of priorities. Ars can't predict what the next FCC will do with this potato.

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