GETTY Warmer average UK temperatures could mean less rain and floods, it has emerged

New research by Met Office and Newcastle University scientists suggests a "sharp decline" in UK summer rain if daily temperatures exceed the predicted 22 ºC due to climate change. It has previously been estimated an average global temperature rise of just 2C will lead to increased rainfall and flash flooding. Scientists claimed it would be caused by air precipitation becoming saturated due to more water being evaporated by the heat. However, following publication of the research, partly funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and published in Nature Geoscience, a Met Office statement said: "We could see a sharp decline in the intensity of UK summer rainfall when daily (24-hour) average temperatures exceed about 22 ºC." The study set out to examine the effect of temperature on rainfall in a future warmer climate, which is the predicted global situation by the end of the century.

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The findings from a Met Office-led paper published last year, entitled Kendon et al 2014, suggested summer rainfall would become more intense under climate change. However, the new study "found that on the very hottest future days the relationship between increasing rainfall intensity and temperature starts to break down." Steven Chan, lead author of the study who is a research associate at Newcastle University and visiting scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: "On days where the average day and night temperature is about 22 ºC, which is well in excess of anything we would ever see today, our study showed a sharp decline in summer rainfall intensity. "This is because our model suggests a change in circulation patterns over the UK in future, leading to hot days with reduced availability of moisture."

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This is because our model suggests a change in circulation patterns over the UK in future, leading to hot days with reduced availability of moisture. Steven Chan, lead author of the study

Elizabeth Kendon, co-author of the paper and manager of Understanding Regional Climate Change at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: "State-of-the-art high-resolution Met Office model projections show UK extreme precipitation intensifying under future global warming, but that the warmest future days in summer are unfavourable to extreme precipitation. Similar phenomena have been observed in parts of the tropics and subtropics." The high resolution model used in the study was able to capture the observed temperature-precipitation relationship allowing, for the first time, an investigation into whether this relationship extends into the future. The team hope they will now be able to investigate the real extent of future flooding risks if the climate does warm.