HL3 will probably be announced at some E3. It's quite possible it'll be a PC game with an exclusive console port on a next gen system.

I keep saying this, and I think it's always worth saying it. There's a very good reason for the silence.

Here's the thing: HL3's very announcement is an excellent bargaining tool. Valve know this. Valve aren't fond of the current generation consoles' network backbones. WE know this. It's not hard to put two and two together.

Console manufacturers? They assuredly do want HL3 on their system. Valve wants a network structure that gives them the freedom to do what they do on PC.

You know what Epic did before the 360? They pushed Microsoft to add 512 MB of RAM to it. If Microsoft didn't? The 360 would be so dated now it would be ridiculous. And this is public knowledge. Assuredly Valve know of it. And they know they have just as much weight, if not more.

Half-Life 3 IS that weight. It's their bargaining chip. If you give Valve what they need in the next gen consoles, you get HL3. And get to announce it with your console, too. The coming year IS the time when manufacturers would be wanting to add big name games for their coming console, and Valve know it as much as anyone. And their unhappiness with Xbox Live, with the Playstation 3 infrastructure has all been clear as day.

That's why there's no news. That's why there's no announcement. That's the reason for everything. Valve doesn't want the information out because it's a bargaining chip and not only would the reveal hurt Valve's own timing, it would hurt their capacity for bargaining with the console manufacturers, as they wouldn't be able to auction off the announcement in exchange for good say on the back end of the system, and more importantly, the ability to do what they do on PC with it. Valve wants to use this to do what Epic did with the 360 and make sure at least one next gen console is good.