The real action in the GOP is coming from the newest wing of the party. | AP Photos It's the Rubio and Rand Party, now

Want to know if Republicans finally back immigration reform, stand a chance of picking up Senate seats in the midterms, or get their act together by 2016? Instead of the GOP, watch the Rubio-Paul Party.

Forget John Boehner. Ignore Karl Rove. The real action in the GOP is coming from the newest wing of the party, the one born in the spring of 2009 — the offspring of tea party activists who almost single-handedly propelled Republicans to control of the House.


This new movement brought Marco Rubio and Rand Paul to Washington and made them the two most potent forces in GOP politics today. It also brought Chris Christie to New Jersey and Scott Walker to Wisconsin — and made them two of the most potent forces for 2016.

( Also on POLITICO: Rubio, Paul fight for GOP future)

Right now, it’s Rubio and Paul dominating the show. This wing of the party has its own version of the Republican National Committee: the Heritage Foundation, now run by former South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, a godfather of the new crusade; the aggressive, wealthy Koch brothers; and the Club for Growth, which chafes the Washington establishment by backing firebrands in GOP primaries (including one Marco Rubio).

Together, these groups hold the cards when it comes to the most important political issues facing the party. With their consent, there will be immigration reform, more electable candidates for the 2014 Senate races, and a transformed party for the next presidential race. Without their consent, there’s little chance of success.

“I don’t know when has the excitement in the Republican Party been in Washington,” Rubio told us. “The great reforms … have always come from outside the building. We have allowed conservatism to be hijacked by crony capitalism, by corporate welfare, by things that are not conservatism. We’ve also allowed conservatism, by our opponents, to be defined to indifference to the plight of others.”

By no means is the establishment dead. The Republican National Committee still sets the rules and raises money, Rove-backed groups provide the backup and party leaders set the votes and agenda. The establishment is simply less relevant.

Nothing illustrates this better than the immigration debate.

( Also on POLITICO: Rubio talks middle class worries at CPAC)

The only chance Republican leaders have for getting a comprehensive immigration deal this Congress is if Rubio and Paul officially bless a pathway to citizenship. Both men have basically — not unequivocally — dropped their opposition to citizenship and made plain their intentions to do it more emphatically in the future. If they do, it’s safe — but not certain — the rest of the party will follow.

If they don’t, party leaders know the whole deal will undoubtedly collapse and Republicans will be left to blame for killing immigration reform once again. Most GOP leaders now think if they kill immigration today, they will seal certain defeat in 2016. A top conservative House member called the current GOP mood one of “Hispanic panic.”

This is a big reason that the autopsy unveiled this week by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus called generically for comprehensive immigration reform. But the truth is that most Republicans elected after the spring of 2009 don’t give a hoot about RNC dictates. “What Rand Paul says matters more to me than what the [Republican National Committee] says,” Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), who chairs the House Judiciary subcommittee on immigration, told POLITICO this week.

An influential conservative House member said the entire party leadership won’t win over a lot members like him — but will probably get enough to win passage of a bipartisan bill.

So immigration could get done, but it’s not nearly as certain as many think. The big reason: This post-2009 wing of the party is deeply divided.

The Heritage Foundation’s DeMint, who talks often with Rubio and Paul, hardly sounds like a believer in citizenship for people who broke the law. “The idea that we can pass an immigration bill that gives citizenship and somehow that’s going to win elections for Republicans, it ain’t going to happen,” DeMint told us. “If citizenship solved our problem, then maybe we need to sit down and discuss it. But we’ve been there and we’ve tried that. … It didn’t solve any problem.”

Just wait until conservative groups start running ads charging that Republicans are rewarding lawbreakers and willingly creating 10 million new Democratic voters by granting them amnesty. One Rubio confidant told us this pressure could ultimately persuade convince the Florida freshman to back off his support. Same goes for Paul, who danced around his specific position this week before finally saying he does support some form of earned citizenship.

Rubio said he knows it’s going to be a big job to explain his position. “We’re not done with that process,” he said. “My hope is that when we’re done informing people why we’re doing this and what it really is, we’ll have more support than opposition. I can’t guarantee it. But that’s my job.”

The fate of immigration won’t be a fight between Rubio, Paul and party leaders. It will be a fight between Rubio, Paul and members of the post-2009 generation who, like DeMint, are not buying into the life-or-death political warnings about earned citizenship. Keep a close eye on Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in particular. Cruz is no fan of the bipartisan deal being cooked up by Rubio and others and could easily lead a spirited charge against it that might resonate with the conservative voters who dominate the midterm elections.

Already, top Senate GOP leaders are looking to Rubio and Paul to help recruit Republicans who are both conservative and electable for races in 2014. Again, the simple blessing of Rubio and Paul can buy party leaders credibility with conservatives that establishment figures simply cannot supply.

That was on full display at the Conservative Political Action Conference, where Paul won the straw poll with 25 percent, 2 points ahead of Rubio.

From just outside the Beltway, the Rubio-Paul Party was reminding the establishment who’s boss.