Vince Cable has warned that leaving the EU without a deal could cost the country an astonishing £430 billion over five years.

The Liberal Democrat leader said the figures, based on the cumulative impact on the country’s economic output, were a ‘real indictment’ of Brexit Secretary David Davis ‘talking up’ the possibility of a no-deal Brexit as part of a negotiating strategy.

Sir Vince added that even a soft Brexit could cost £235 billion.

Vince Cable has warned that leaving the EU without a deal could cost the country an astonishing £430 billion

Using calculations based on research by the London School of Economics, the Lib Dems say that if the UK exits the EU in March 2019 without a deal, Britain’s economic output in the five years after Brexit would be reduced by 5.3 per cent, or £430 billion.

Even if the UK agreed to a Norway-style arrangement, in which we retain full access to the Single Market, there would still be a reduction of 2.9 per cent – or £235 billion. London would be worst hit by a no-deal Brexit, with a £115 billion fall in output up to March 2024.

Sir Vince said: ‘These figures are a real indictment of the Government’s strategy. David Davis is still talking up the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, yet these figures suggest that would cost Britain a ruinous £430 billion over five years.

The Government refuses to publish its own projections, so this is the best guide we have. If talking up a no deal is meant to be a negotiating tactic, it is not working because the EU27 is not taking the Government’s threats seriously.

‘All the no-deal speculation is doing is talking down Britain to potential investors.’