Ontarians overwhelmingly approve of the $11 minimum wage, favour a provincial pension plan scheme, and remain divided over whether anti-union “right-to-work” laws are needed, a new poll suggests.

In a sweeping public-opinion survey against the backdrop of a possible spring election, Forum Research found none of the three major political parties has yet captivated Ontarians enough to win a majority government.

The Progressive Conservatives, led by Tim Hudak, were at 35 per cent; Premier Kathleen Wynne’s governing minority Liberals at 32 per cent; the New Democrats, led by Andrea Horwath, were at 26 per cent; and Mike Schreiner’s Green Party was at 6 per cent.

“It’s pretty tight between the three of them,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Wednesday. “But I’m not convinced there’s going to be an election this spring.”

Bozinoff said extrapolating the results leads to a projected seat count in the 107-member legislature of 48 Tories (up from the current 37), 42 Liberals (down from 49), and 17 New Democrats (now at 21).

Using interactive voice-response phone calls, Forum surveyed 1,014 people across Ontario on Tuesday and results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

With all parties crafting planks for their campaign platforms, the pollster asked about some of their policies.

Wynne’s plan to raise the minimum wage from $10.25 to $11 as of June 1 was backed by 77 per cent of respondents, while 18 per cent disapprove and 5 per cent don’t know.

Horwath’s pledge to raise the hourly rate to $12 by 2016 was supported by 53 per cent while 34 per cent said $11 is fine and 14 per cent were unsure.

The premier’s proposal for an Ontario pension plan to supplement the Canada Pension Plan, expected to be a cornerstone of the Liberal re-election campaign, was backed by 53 per cent, while 27 per cent disapproved and 19 per cent didn’t know.

But Wynne’s pitch to fund transit infrastructure through new taxes and fees appeared to be divisive with 41 per cent agreeing, 42 per cent disagreeing, and 16 per cent uncertain.

Results were also mixed for Hudak’s labour policies.

The Conservative leader on Friday renounced his party’s controversial “right-to-work” policy, which would have scrapped the Rand Formula that requires employees in a unionized workplace to pay dues even if they choose not to join the union.

But Forum found 62 per cent disapproved of the Rand Formula while 24 per cent approved of it and 13 per cent didn’t know.

At the same time, 42 per cent approved of “right-to-work” laws and 40 per cent opposed them with 18 per cent undecided.

Opinions were split on Hudak’s flip-flop – 39 per cent backed the Conservatives’ policy U-turn and 31 per cent disagreed with it and 31 per cent were uncertain.

“They got spooked in Niagara Falls,” Bozinoff said, referring to the Tories’ narrow loss to the NDP in the Feb. 13 byelection after unions rallied against the right-to-work policy.

“Maybe it was popular (province-wide), but he was unable to take the heat from the unions. This is what happens with (political) parties — they sometimes take the wrong conclusions from events.”

In a separate poll of 1,310 Toronto residents conducted Monday, Forum found the Liberals at 46 per cent in the city to 29 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives, 22 per cent for the New Democrats, and 2 per cent for the Greens. Results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Bozinoff warned that should concern both Hudak, who has one Toronto seat, and Horwath, who holds five, and comfort Wynne because the Liberals could increase their tally of 17 city MPPs.

“I think the Tories would lose Etobicoke—Lakeshore in a general election and the NDP could lose Davenport,” he said, referring to PC MPP Doug Holyday and New Democrat Jonah Schein.

Like most pollsters, Forum uses a proprietary weighting formula, which has been shared with the Star, to more accurately reflect the broader electorate. Raw data from this poll will be housed in the Political Science Data Library at the University of Toronto.

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77 per cent support the $11 minimum wage

53 per cent approve of an Ontario pension plan

42 per cent like “right-to-work” laws

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