A guide to Democrats running for president and what likely Iowa caucus participants think of them

Robin Opsahl , Katie Akin | The Des Moines Register

Show Caption Hide Caption Iowa Poll: Here's how the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates fared January's closely-watched poll results indicate who voters might choose for the 2020 Iowa Caucuses. A new candidate leads the pack.

© Copyright 2020, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

The weather is getting cold and the caucuses are drawing nearer: There are just two and a half months before Iowa Democrats gather to choose their presidential nominee.

While time is dwindling before the caucuses, the race remains fluid. The latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. Nov. 8-13, tested what 500 likely Democratic caucus participants think of 17 presidential candidates. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Our guide shows more than just what people think of these candidates in the most recent Iowa Poll: It also shows data from three previous Iowa Polls conducted this year about the 2020 race, offering a snapshot of how likely Democratic caucusgoers have assessed the field over time.

The June Iowa Poll results are not directly comparable to results from other months because that poll included respondents who said they planned to caucus virtually. In September, the Democratic National Committee rejected the Iowa Democratic Party’s plan for virtual caucuses. The June results presented here are from respondents who said they would caucus in person.

A dash (—) indicates at least one respondent selected the candidate, but the percentage rounded down to zero. An asterisk (*) indicates the candidate received no responses. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Michael Bennet

Bennet, Colorado’s senior U.S. senator, officially declared his run after surgery from prostate cancer in 2019. He has prioritized education policy, such as universal preschool for 3- and 4-year-olds, as well as a public option for health care. His favorability rating has dropped 8 percentage points since November. One of his best results: He is seen favorably by men 55 and older, at 25%.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: —

November: 1%

September: —

June: 1%

March: 1%

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 17%/32%/51%

November: 25%/27%/47%

September: 20%/23%/57%

June: 19%/11%/70%

March: 18%/7%/75%

Joe Biden

This is the third presidential run for the former vice president after two unsuccessful runs in 1988 and 2008. Biden, an early front-runner, remains part of a quartet atop the poll but tied for third place in November and sits at fourth place in January's poll. Three in four Biden supporters say choosing a candidate with the best chance to defeat President Donald Trump in the general election is extremely important in their personal choice. At 80%, Biden supporters are also most likely to voice optimism that the eventual Democratic nominee will defeat Trump. Biden does well (29%) in first place choices among those age 65 and older (Buttigieg does second best with that group, at 15%). He trails much of the rest of the field among likely caucusgoers under 35, earning just 4%.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 15

November: 15

September: 20

June: 23

March: 27

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 62/33/5

November: 64/33/3

September: 66/29/5

June: 72/24/4

March: 81/15/4

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Michael Bloomberg

Bloomberg, a billionaire businessman who served as mayor of New York City from 2002 until 2013, declared his run in late 2019. He has been waging a national campaign, focused particularly on March 3 Super Tuesday contests, and is skipping early voting states, including Iowa. The share of likely Democratic caucusgoers who view him unfavorably is the highest in the poll, at 58%, tied with U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard — nearly double his unfavorable rating from December 2018.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 1

November: 2

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 17/58/25

November: 19/58/23

March: 27/38/34

Cory Booker

Booker, 50, a New Jersey senator and previous mayor of Newark, is the first choice of just 3% of likely caucusgoers and the second choice of 4%, but 28% still say they're actively considering him. Sixty-six percent of likely caucusgoers who identify as liberal but not "very liberal" view Booker favorably, as do 64% of participants in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, which encompasses Des Moines and southwest Iowa and is represented by U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne, a Democrat.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 3

November: 3

September: 3

June: 1

March: 3

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 53/26/21

November: 52/28/19

September: 60/22/18

June: 55/19/26

March: 53/14/33

Pete Buttigieg

The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, dropped 9 percentage points since November, when he led the Iowa Poll. He has now fallen behind U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. He retains the largest "footprint" of any candidate, with 60% of likely Democratic caucusgoers saying he is their first or second choice or that they are actively considering him. Buttigieg also wins a plurality (24%) among those who say they live in suburbs and also leads (23%) with white men with college degrees. But only 40% of Buttigieg supporters say their minds are made up to caucus for him on Feb. 3, lower than for supporters of the other top-tier contenders; 59% of his supporters say they could still be persuaded to caucus for another candidate.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 16

November: 25

September: 9

June: 15

March: 1

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 68/24/8

November: 72/16/12

September: 69/13/18

June: 61/12/26

March: 17/10/73

More coverage of the Iowa Poll:

John Delaney

Delaney officially announced his run for president in 2017 and has visited all 99 counties in Iowa. However, in the January poll, his unfavorability rating grew by 6 percentage points compared to the November poll. Fewer likely Democratic caucusgoers say they are actively considering caucusing for him now. In June, 18% said they were considering Delaney in some fashion; now, just 6% say they are.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: —

November: 0

September: 1

June: 1

March: 1

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 15/40/45

November: 18/34/48

September: 17/34/49

June: 27/18/55

March: 27/12/61

Tulsi Gabbard

Gabbard, an Iraq War veteran, is one of Hawaii’s representatives in the U.S. House and the first Samoan-American and Hindu member of Congress. She is tied with Bloomberg for the field's highest unfavorability rating, at 58%. Gabbard's highest favorability ratings are (25%) with unmarried men and (23%) with men under the age of 45.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 2

November: 3

September: 2

June: —

March: —

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 16/58/27

November: 25/45/30

September: 26/31/43

June: 23/21/57

March: 22/15/64

Amy Klobuchar

The Minnesota senator is campaigning on her "Midwest values" and her track record of working across the aisle. The share of likely Democratic caucusgoers who name her as their first choice for president stayed steady at 6% from November to January, which keeps her in fifth place. Her highest favorability rating is among women age 55 and older (69%).

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 6

November: 6

September: 3

June: 2

March: 3

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 53/25/22

November: 53/23/24

September: 52/22/26

June: 44/18/38

March: 43/15/41

Deval Patrick

Patrick, the former governor of Massachusetts, entered the presidential race in November. More respondents have an unfavorable than favorable view of him. His highest favorability rating, just 14%, is among married men.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 0

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 8/29/63​​​​​​​

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Bernie Sanders

Sanders, Vermont's senior senator, is at the top of the Iowa Poll for the first time in his two bids for the presidency. The democratic socialist, who narrowly lost Iowa to Hillary Clinton in 2016, has the most solid base of support among the candidates polled. Fifty-nine percent of Sanders supporters say their minds are made up on whom they will support in the Iowa caucuses. Sanders leads, with 36%, among those under 35 years old but is in single-digits (6%) among those age 55 and older. He holds a 9 percentage point lead over Buttigieg with likely Democratic caucusgoers who say they will caucus for the first time in 2020.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 20

November: 15

September: 11

June: 16

March: 25

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 66/29/5

November: 61/35/4

September: 58/36/5

June: 70/25/5

March: 71/25/4

Tom Steyer

The billionaire Democratic activist officially joined the 2020 presidential race on July 9. The share of likely Democratic caucusgoers who have a favorable opinion of him has risen to 43%, an increase of 6 percentage points since November. His highest favorability rating, at 58%, is among respondents who say they live in rural Iowa, and he rates at 52% favorable among respondents in households where someone works on a farm or has an agriculture-related job.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 2

November: 3

September: 2

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 43/38/19

November: 37/39/24

September: 27/32/41

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Elizabeth Warren

Warren has been on Democrats’ presidential radar for years and announced her 2020 bid in late 2018. Warren led the September poll, the first candidate to pull ahead of Biden in Iowa Polls in the 2020 cycle. Since then, she has dipped into second place, with Buttigieg first in November and Sanders first in January. Her highest favorability rating is among people who describe themselves as very liberal, at 93%. She leads (21%) with those who have a college degree.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 17

November: 16

September: 22

June: 15

March: 9

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 70/24/6

November: 71/25/5

September: 75/17/8

June: 71/17/12

March: 63/20/17

Marianne Williamson

Williamson, a spiritual author and self-help entrepreneur, centered her message on bringing emotion and morality back to politics. Williamson failed to achieve 1% support in any Iowa Poll and dropped out of the race after the January Iowa Poll was completed. She is viewed unfavorably by more than half of likely Democratic caucusgoers, 51%, and favorably by just 8%, an upside-down favorability ratio of more than 6-1.

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 0

November: 0

September: —

June: 0

March: —

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 8/51/41

November: 11/47/41

September: 9/48/42

June: 9/18/73

March: 8/11/80

Andrew Yang

Yang, a New York entrepreneur, announced his bid for the presidency in late 2017, and he has advocated for a universal basic income of $1,000 each month for all Americans ages 18-64. He's up to 5% of likely Democratic caucusgoers who say he is their first choice for president — a 2 percentage point increase from the November Iowa Poll. The share who view him favorably now stands at 61%, an 18 percentage point increase since November. His highest favorablity ratings come from men under age 45 (78%); all likely Democratic caucusgoers under 35 years old (73%) and white men with a college degree (73%).

Iowa Poll results, first choice

January: 5

November: 3

September: 2

June: 1

March: —

Iowa Poll results, favorable/unfavorable/not sure

January: 61/25/14

November: 43/33/24

September: 36/32/32

June: 19/15/66

March: 7/12/81

About January's poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Jan. 2-8, 2020, for the Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 3,131 registered voters in Iowa, including 701 who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all registered voters were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 701 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Questions based on the sample of 3,131 registered voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.7 or 1.8 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.

► MORE ON JANUARY'S POLL: Read our methodology

Robin Opsahl covers political trends for the Register. Reach them at ropsahl@registermedia.com or 515-284-8051. Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at kakin@registermedia.com or at 515-284-8041. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.

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