Although today’s primary contests in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine haven’t gotten as much press as the pre-Super Tuesday contests, they are every bit as important, if not more so. Today represents what might be the last shot for any candidate to reverse the Trump tide.

Forget what the polls are telling you right now in these states (to the extent they even exist). Many of them stupidly include either independent or Democrat voters even though they are all closed primaries. In every closed primary so far, Ted Cruz has over performed and Donald Trump has underperformed.

Donald Trump counts on Independents and Democrats to win these primaries. Without them, he is especially vulnerable in places like Kansas (which is demographically almost exactly identical to Iowa) and Kentucky and Louisiana. No one has any clue what is going to happen, especially in Maine.

Someone – most likely Ted Cruz – needs to win at least half these contests today and preferably three. Racking up moral victories won’t be enough forever. Three of the electorates Cruz is facing are tailor-made for him and the primaries are closed. Right now – today – there needs to be a media headline that says “Donald Trump LOSES,” which has not happened since Iowa. When it happened in Iowa, his poll numbers nose dived. It needs to happen again to keep this a race.

You know Ted Cruz’s team has pulled all the right levers to maximize their turnout and win these states. Could this be the day that turns the tide of this race?