West Texas intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, now sits at $20.37 a barrel, less than a third of its price at the beginning of the year.

Oil is getting pummeled from two sides. Cratering demand as the economy grinds to a halt is taking the biggest bite. But a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia leading the two oil giants to flood the world with supply is also weighing on its value.

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Cheap oil once spelled good news for U.S. economic growth, as consumers and energy-intensive businesses alike benefited from the lower costs. But the revolution in shale drilling has flipped that dynamic on its head: In November of last year, the U.S. became a net exporter of oil. The domestic industry that produces it has become a key contributor to the broader economy and a driver of the stock market’s performance.

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Oil market analysts project the worst is yet to come. “We’re in the early stages of the biggest collapse in demand we’ve ever seen, ever,” Bill Herbert of Simmons Energy tells me. “I don't see how [prices] don’t go down another 50 percent,” to below $10 a barrel.

The Eurasia Group estimates that globally, consumption could slump by 10 percent this year to an average of 90 million barrels a day. “The sharpest contraction will likely occur in the second quarter, which could see consumption tank to 75 million [barrels per day] as China still suffers (though improves) while Europe and North America suffer the peak of the outbreak,” the group wrote in a note. “It would be the first time since the rise of modern aviation after World War II that there is little to no global private travel.”

President Trump has tried to put a positive spin on the price collapse:

But there will be scant opportunities for Americans to take advantage of cheaper prices at the pump while they’re locked inside. And neither will they plow those savings into spending in restaurants, stores and movie theaters that help account for the consumption making up 70 percent of economic activity.

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“We’re not going to see the benefit on the consumer side,” says Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group. His firm is projecting a gruesome 6 percent contraction in economic activity in the second quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, halfway around the world, there’s likewise no end in sight to the showdown between the Russians and Saudis. “We just don’t know how far Russia and Saudi Arabia are willing to go,” Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Seattle, tells Bloomberg News. “Until there’s some kind of agreement, it’s hard to figure out where the bottom is.”

The resulting glut will strain the industry’s ability to store it all, experts say. Storage facilities “could run out of space within months, traders and analysts say, a predicament that could drive down crude prices to unprecedented single-digit dollar amounts,” the Wall Street Journal's Benoit Faucon and Summer Said report.

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Back in the U.S., as depressed oil prices bleed profits from smaller fracking firms already carrying heavy debt loads, some will go bankrupt, Regina Mayor, who heads the energy practice at KPMG, tells me. “There are definitely going to be more defaults,” she says. “There are smaller companies that were more highly levered that won’t have access to liquidity and will go under.”

That in turn could prove a major problem for their bankers, typically smaller outfits. “Eleven small and mid sized banks have oil and gas loans at least equal to 25% or more of their equity,” per CNBC's Tim Mullaney, citing a report by Keefe Bruyette & Woods. Wall Street banks aren't similarly endangered: “The top four U.S. commercial banks (JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America) each had total energy exposure of less than 15% of their tangible common equity … That suggests their energy loans could go to zero without threatening the survival of the biggest banks.”

It may be difficult to isolate the impact of the oil price collapse from the parade of other catastrophes now piling onto the U.S. economy. But recent history offers a clue.

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A drop in oil prices starting in 2015 contributed to a mini-recession that many Americans never noticed. By early 2016, the price of West Texas intermediate crude had fallen below $30 a barrel, a level it hasn’t seen again since this month.

“The oil and gas exploration boom tied to fracking technology came to a halt with energy prices at rock-bottom levels, and with it sales of equipment tied to that boom,” the New York Times’s Neil Irwin wrote of an event he termed the “invisible recession.” “With the fall in domestic capital investment in those industries and with weakness overseas, companies in related industries took it on the chin. Caterpillar, the maker of heavy equipment, had 30 percent lower revenue in 2016 than 2014.”

The upshot was a measurable drag on overall growth. More from Irwin: “The industrial sector downturn was powerful enough to turn a strong expansion into a weak one. Overall growth fell to 1.3 percent in the four quarters ended in mid-2016, from 3.4 percent in the preceding year.”

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And there is evidence the resulting slowdown carried political consequences, especially in those areas where the pain was concentrated: “2016 was rough for a lot of people in local economies heavily reliant on drilling, mining, farming or making the machines that support those industries. A poll in October 2016 by an agriculture trade publication, Agri-Pulse, found that 86 percent of farmers were dissatisfied with the way things were going in the United States.”

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CENTRAL BANKS

— Fed makes another major move: “The Federal Reserve announced late Wednesday it is establishing a special backstop for money market mutual funds, which typically serve as risk-free places for investors to store cash,” my colleague Heather Long reports.

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"By establishing the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Fed is reprising another weapon from its 2008 arsenal. During the financial crisis of a dozen years ago, there was great concern that these money market mutual funds would not be able to make investors whole. In recent weeks, investors have been rushing to pull money out of the market, leading to concerns that a wide range of assets could face a run.

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Jerome Powell is busy: “The Fed has now launched seven emergency actions this week, with the money market liquidity facility announcement occurring at 11:30 p.m.”

The Fed is showing its nerves. “ The precedent of the previous use of this tool, during the craziest week of the 2008 crisis -- and the wee-hours timing of this latest announcement -- may be an indication of how concerned the Fed and Treasury are about fund liquidity looking forward,” Capital Alpha's Ian Katz writes in a note. “In fact, the Treasury is also asking Congress to give it back the authority to backstop the money market mutual fund industry.”

— The European Central Bank also made a big splash: “The European Central Bank will begin an enormous new wave of bond purchases meant to counteract the ‘serious risks’ to the eurozone …,” the Times's Jack Ewing reports.

“The bank will buy up to 750 billion euros, or $820 billion, in government and corporate bonds and other assets, pumping cash into financial markets deeply rattled by the pandemic. The bank said it would buy even more assets if need be, signaling that it is prepared to defend the eurozone with all the weapons at its disposal.”

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Key quote: “'Extraordinary times require extraordinary action,' Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said on Twitter early Thursday. ‘There are no limits to our commitment to the euro.'”

Meanwhile, the European Union's chief Brexit negotiator, Michael Barnier, the European Union's chief Brexit negotiator, Michael Barnier, has tested positive for covid-19.

MARKET MOVERS

— Stock futures point to more pain, despite Fed moves. “Futures tied to the S&P 500 index wavered between gains and losses before edging down over 1%. A closely watched measure of turbulence in U.S. stocks, the Cboe Volatility Index, climbed close to historic highs,” per the WSJ's Caitlin Ostroff and Xie Yu. “Stocks in Germany dropped, helping push the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 gauge 0.2% lower… Equity benchmarks in Hong Kong, Australia and Taiwan slid to their lowest levels in years.”

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Markets are coming off another historically ugly day: “The Dow Jones industrial average sank nearly 1,339 points or 6.3 percent to finish at 19,898.92. Both the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index and the technology-laden Nasdaq lost about 5 percent. Trading at one point was halted for the fourth time in six sessions when stocks tripped a circuit-breaker designed to prevent panic selling,” my colleagues David Lynch, Thomas Heath and Taylor Telford report.

“Even the prospect of roughly $1 trillion in emergency federal aid, including $1,000 checks for taxpayers and an airline industry bailout, was not enough to halt the retreat… The Dow marked its eighth straight day of 1,000-point swings, which was considered unthinkable until recently."

Nowhere to hide. “Nearly every asset class — stocks, bonds, gold, oil — came under siege as investors fled to the safety of cash. The weeks-long panic has hollowed out a big chunk of the stock gains from the bull market and erased virtually all of the equity advances under the Trump presidency," The Post team reports. "All 11 Standard & Poor’s sectors were in the red. The day’s poorest performers were in the travel and tourism sphere: Marriott down 34 percent. United Airlines, 33 percent. MGM Resorts, 30 percent. Alaska Air, 32 percent."

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Some historical context, via LPL Financial's Ryan Detrick:

The extended selloff has come with unprecedented volatility. More from Detrick:

From Bespoke Investment Group:

— NYSE to temporarily close trading floor because of coronavirus cases: “The New York Stock Exchange said … it will temporarily close its historic trading floor and move fully to electronic trading after two people tested positive for coronavirus infection at screenings it had set up this week,” CNBC's Yun Li reports.

“All-electronic trading will begin on March 23 at the open, the exchange said. The facilities to be closed are the NYSE equities trading floor and NYSE American Options trading floor in New York, and NYSE Arca Options trading floor in San Francisco … The stock market has closed at times over the years, such as during World War II and in the wake of 9/11, but this is the first time the physical trading floor of the Big Board has ever shut independently while electronic trading continues.”

More market news:

Bill Ackman issues dire warning: “Investor Bill Ackman urged [Trump] and corporate America in an impassioned plea on CNBC to shut down the country for 30 days to contain the fast-spreading coronavirus, calling it the only option to rescue the economy,” CNBC's Yun Li “Investor Bill Ackman urged [Trump] and corporate America in an impassioned plea on CNBC to shut down the country for 30 days to contain the fast-spreading coronavirus, calling it the only option to rescue the economy,” CNBC's Yun Li reports . “'America will end as we know it. I’m sorry to say so, unless we take this option,' he said. Ackman added that if Trump saves the country from the coronavirus, he will get reelected in November.” Markets dropped further after Ackman's emotional appeal.

Boeing on track for worst month ever: “The aerospace giant is down another 18 percent on Wednesday, piling on monthly losses of more than 60 percent. The stock is pacing for its worst month ever and sits firmly at the bottom of the Dow,” CNBC's Keris Lahiff “The aerospace giant is down another 18 percent on Wednesday, piling on monthly losses of more than 60 percent. The stock is pacing for its worst month ever and sits firmly at the bottom of the Dow,” CNBC's Keris Lahiff reports . “Boeing has been hard hit over the past year as it faced the grounding of its 737 Max after two fatal crashes. The company has requested $60 billion in government aid to weather the hardship as the coronavirus crisis deepens.”

Blue Apron is one of the market's silver linings: “The stock is now seven times more valuable than market close on Friday as restaurants are being forced to limit operations and as Americans clear out supermarket shelves and settle in for more social distancing,” Bloomberg News's Andres Guerra Luz "[Shares in the company] rose as much as 198 percent Wednesday, its largest intraday jump ever, bringing shares back to levels they haven’t seen since February 2019 even as the broader marker declined. U.S. listed shares of German meal-kit provider HelloFresh SE have also risen roughly 20 percent this week.” “The stock is now seven times more valuable than market close on Friday as restaurants are being forced to limit operations and as Americans clear out supermarket shelves and settle in for more social distancing,” Bloomberg News's Andres Guerra Luz reports its largest intraday jump ever, bringing shares back to levels they haven’t seen since February 2019 even as the broader marker declined. U.S. listed shares of German meal-kit provider HelloFresh SE have also risen roughly 20 percent this week.”

Private-equity investors try to gauge cash crunch: “Investors in private equity are hoping coronavirus-related stock volatility doesn’t force them to miss out on what could be a buy-low opportunity,” the Wall Street Journal's Chris Cumming and Preeti Singh “Investors in private equity are hoping coronavirus-related stock volatility doesn’t force them to miss out on what could be a buy-low opportunity,” the Wall Street Journal's Chris Cumming and Preeti Singh report

CORONAVIRUS FALLOUT

In the United States:

Jobless claims are poised for historic surge: “Ohio saw almost 78,000 applications in the past three days, about fourteen times last week’s total, a state spokesperson said … In Connecticut, about 30,000 claims have been filed since Friday, about 10 times the average weekly total, the Hartford Courant reported Tuesday. A spokesperson for Illinois said it had received more than 41,000 claims over the last two days, versus 4,445 during the same time last year,” Bloomberg News's Reade Pickert and Katia Dmitrieva For a sense of the enormity of what’s coming, those state numbers compare to total U.S. jobless claims of just 211,000 for the week ending March 7, which was in line with recent trends and not far from the 49-year low of 193,000 in April.” “Ohio saw almost 78,000 applications in the past three days, about fourteen times last week’s total, a state spokesperson said … In Connecticut, about 30,000 claims have been filed since Friday, about 10 times the average weekly total, the Hartford Courant reported Tuesday. A spokesperson for Illinois said it had received more than 41,000 claims over the last two days, versus 4,445 during the same time last year,” Bloomberg News's Reade Pickert and Katia Dmitrieva report . “

Foreclosures and evictions on hold . “ Trump said Wednesday that his administration will suspend foreclosures and evictions on homeowners at least until the end of next month,” CNN's Kevin Liptak Trump said Wednesday that his administration will suspend foreclosures and evictions on homeowners at least until the end of next month,” CNN's Kevin Liptak reports . “Speaking at the White House, Trump said the move from the Department of Housing and Urban Development would provide relief during the coronavirus outbreak.”

U.S.-Canada border closed to “nonessential” traffic: “Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided to close the border Wednesday morning, Trudeau said at a news conference," my colleagues Katie Zezima and Rick Noack “Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided to close the border Wednesday morning, Trudeau said at a news conference," my colleagues Katie Zezima and Rick Noack report. The ban applies to recreation and tourism, though employees who live on one side and work on the other will still be able to make the trip, and trade and trucking won't be affected.

Farmers face seasonal worker shortage: The squeeze results from "the State Department’s suspension of routine immigrant and nonimmigrant visa processing in Mexico, including for temporary migrant laborers, beginning Wednesday,” my colleagues Tracy Jan and Laura Reiley The squeeze results from "the State Department’s suspension of routine immigrant and nonimmigrant visa processing in Mexico, including for temporary migrant laborers, beginning Wednesday,” my colleagues Tracy Jan and Laura Reiley report . It's hitting just as the Florida harvest season begins. And the seafood industry in Maryland, which starts seasonal hiring in April, could also feel it.

Hospitals need ventilators. “Desperate hospitals say they can’t find anywhere to buy the medical devices, which help patients breathe and can be the difference between life and death for those facing the most dire respiratory effects of the coronavirus,” the New York Times's Sarah Kliff, Adam Satariano, Jessica Silver-Greenberg and Nicholas Kulish “Desperate hospitals say they can’t find anywhere to buy the medical devices, which help patients breathe and can be the difference between life and death for those facing the most dire respiratory effects of the coronavirus,” the New York Times's Sarah Kliff, Adam Satariano, Jessica Silver-Greenberg and Nicholas Kulish report . “American and European manufacturers say they can’t speed up production enough to meet soaring demand, at least not anytime soon.”

Corporate fallout:

Automakers to temporarily shut down factories: “Ford Motor Co., General Motors and Chrysler will halt production at all North American factories for at least two weeks,” my colleague Aaron Gregg “Ford Motor Co., General Motors and Chrysler will halt production at all North American factories for at least two weeks,” my colleague Aaron Gregg reports . “After initially committing only to a ‘rotating partial shutdown’ that would have kept factories open while staggering shifts to reduce exposure, all of the “big three” automakers now say they are halting production indefinitely at plants across North America.”

But G.M. and Ford are in talks to help produce ventilators: “GM Chief Executive Mary Barra spoke to White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow about the issue after the Detroit automaker announced it will suspend North American production through March 30. Kudlow told Fox News on Wednesday that he had spoken to one automaker looking at producing ventilators,” Reuters's David Shepardson “GM Chief Executive Mary Barra spoke to White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow about the issue after the Detroit automaker announced it will suspend North American production through March 30. Kudlow told Fox News on Wednesday that he had spoken to one automaker looking at producing ventilators,” Reuters's David Shepardson reports . Ford later released a statement offering its help.

Elon Musk is also offering to pitch in . The Tesla CEO “We will make ventilators if there is a shortage.” . The Tesla CEO tweeted

Trump says airlines are “number one ” priority for relief: “The Treasury Department will propose lending airlines $50 billion in a coronavirus stimulus plan, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News. Such a proposal would fall short of the aid being sought by the industry, which requested $29 billion in grants and another $29 billion in loans,” Bloomberg News's Alan Levin and Ari Natter “The Treasury Department will propose lending airlines $50 billion in a coronavirus stimulus plan, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News. Such a proposal would fall short of the aid being sought by the industry, which requested $29 billion in grants and another $29 billion in loans,” Bloomberg News's Alan Levin and Ari Natter report

Restaurants seek $455 billion in federal aid: The industry is telling policymakers it “could shed nearly half of its 15.6 million jobs and a quarter of annual sales,” Reuters's Hilary Russ The industry is telling policymakers itHilary Russ reports . That would amount to “a $225 billion hit over the next three months, equal to a quarter of their projected 2020 sales of $899 billion," per the National Restaurant Association. One chain, Danny Meyer's Union Square, is preparing to lay off thousands of workers, CNBC's Amelia Lucas reports . The group cited a “near complete elimination of revenue.”

Hotels face drop in occupancy: “Major hotel chains are temporarily closing properties and seeing occupancy rates tumble as travelers stay at home,” CNBC's Harriet Baskas “Major hotel chains are temporarily closing properties and seeing occupancy rates tumble as travelers stay at home,” CNBC's Harriet Baskas reports . “Global hospitality research company STR said … that for the week of March 8-14, hotel occupancy was down 24.4 percent to 53 percent year-over-year. Meanwhile, revenue per available room, a key industry metric, fell 32.5% to $63.74.”

Largest mall operator shutters properties . “The largest owner of shopping malls in the nation is closing all of its shopping centers and retail properties" because of the pandemic, CBS News . “The largest owner of shopping malls in the nation is closing all of its shopping centers and retail properties" because of the pandemic, CBS News reports . “Simon Property Group said the closings start at 7 p.m. local time Wednesday. The malls are expected to re-open March 29…Simon owns more than 200 properties."

U.S. may give banks bonus points for low-income lending: “ U.S. regulators are considering giving banks additional regulatory points for lending to mid- to low-income Americans hurt by the coronavirus, as they seek to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic, an official within a banking agency told Reuters,” Chris Prentice Among the measures under discussion is a plan to offer additional regulatory credits — bonus points — to lenders via the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), a critical fair-lending law which dictates a range of regulatory scores for banks.” Chris Prentice reports . “

International fallout:

China reports no new cases: That's the first time it's happened since the deadly outbreak began there last year, my colleagues Siobhán O'Grady and Teo Armus That's the first time it's happened since the deadly outbreak began there last year, my colleagues Siobhán O'Grady and Teo Armus report

What we can learn from Asia's example: “Political will, dedicated resources, sophisticated tracking and a responsible population have kept coronavirus infections and deaths in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore relatively low. South Korea, with more deaths, has led the way in widespread testing,” my colleagues Shibani Mahtani and Simon Denyer “Political will, dedicated resources, sophisticated tracking and a responsible population have kept coronavirus infections and deaths in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore relatively low. South Korea, with more deaths, has led the way in widespread testing,” my colleagues Shibani Mahtani and Simon Denyer report from Hong Kong.

MONEY ON THE HILL

— Negotiations continue on relief package: “The Trump administration and congressional leaders rushed to assemble a massive stimulus package aimed at preventing the U.S. economy from plummeting into its worst collapse since the Great Depression,” my colleagues Erica Werner, Jeff Stein and Mike DeBonis report.

“The administration’s $1 trillion proposed rescue plan, which forms the basis for fast-moving negotiations on Capitol Hill, includes sending two large checks to many Americans and devoting $300 billion toward helping small businesses avoid mass layoffs. Priorities laid out in a two-page Treasury Department document also include $50 billion to help rescue the airline industry and $150 billion to prop up other sectors, which could include hotels.” (See the Treasury document here.)

Democrats have their own ideas: “… Largely aiming to shore up safety-net programs and the public health infrastructure, as well as send money directly to American taxpayers, while shunning corporate bailouts. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) proposed having the Federal Reserve send $2,000 to every American adult and $1,000 to every American child until the crisis ends.”

All told the total cost will be past $2 trillion: “Between several legislative packages advanced on Capitol Hill and other actions the government has taken, the White House is pushing an economic plan that is ‘over $2 trillion and counting’ to try and arrest the coronavirus’s economic wrecking ball, a senior administration officials said.”

Trump signed into law the second major virus-related bill: “The Senate also voted to approve a House-passed bill that would spend some $100 billion on paid leave, unemployment insurance, and free testing to people affected by the coronavirus fallout. That vote sent the legislation to Trump, who signed it into law Wednesday night.”

— Mnuchin urged Republicans not to use the B-word: When Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin “visited with Republican senators at their Tuesday lunch, the secretary pleaded with them not to use the politically charged word ‘bailout’ in describing the proposed relief for Boeing, one of many large corporations that stands to benefit from the administration’s plan,” my colleagues Robert Costa and Philip Rucker report of the unfolding politics of getting the GOP to learn to love government intervention.

“One senator raised a hand and asked if they should instead call them ‘freedom payments,’ which prompted laughter, according to a person briefed on the closed-door meeting.”

Trump isn't worried about the total price tag either: The president “'doesn’t give a [expletive]' about how his rescue plan affects the federal debt, according to a White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be frank. ‘It’s all about the markets and the economy for him. It’s all about the jobs numbers.’”

But investors may be getting nervous. “Global fixed income markets this morning have lost confidence in the ability of the governments of the world to finance the fiscal stimulus they are proposing,” Carl Weinberg, chief international economist for High-Frequency Economics, . “Global fixed income markets this morning have lost confidence in the ability of the governments of the world to finance the fiscal stimulus they are proposing,” Carl Weinberg, chief international economist for High-Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients. “Traders, investors and speculators have looked at the size and cost of the fiscal stimulus proposed by the United States and other governments — especially Italy — and decided to sell sovereign debt of all kinds.”

OPINIONS

Some views on how to respond to the crisis.

From the left, via the Roosevelt Institute's Mike Konczal: “Help people directly by providing cash (while recognizing that cash alone is insufficient for the moment we’re in). Support workers by ensuring that they have the protections and supports they need, including more in immediate unemployment insurance. Help states and municipalities, which will be facing an unprecedented downturn, through a combination of fiscal and monetary policy. Prevent business collapse during the downturn, which will require loans and other backstops. For industries that go bankrupt, implement mechanisms to make sure they can recover.”

From the right, via the American Enterprise Institute's Stan Veuger: “If every small- and medium-sized business in America was supported by the federal government to retain their workforce through the crisis, much of its economic impact would disappear. The government should provide immediate funding for emergency loans to any small- and medium-sized business in America.”

DAYBOOK

Today:

Darden Restaurants, Lennar and Cintas are among the notable companies to report their earnings

Friday:

The University of Michigan releases a preliminary report on consumer sentiment for March

THE FUNNIES