Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars is a tough nut to crack this year. The Best Picture contenders are heavily tilted towards original scripts, and while the top category may have as many as 10 nominees, there is only room for five in this writing category. So it might be more difficult than usual for Paul Thomas Anderson to break through for penning “Phantom Thread.” But the writers branch of the academy undoubtedly loves him — he’s been nominated for writing four times.

Anderson has two past nominations for original screenplays: “Boogie Nights” (1997) and “Magnolia” (1999). That was followed by two more nominations for adapted scripts: “There Will Be Blood” (2007) and “Inherent Vice” (2014). He earned additional bids for Best Director and Best Producer for “There Will Be Blood,” but it’s his writing that has undoubtedly earned him the most attention from Oscar voters.

“Phantom Thread” wasn’t screened for press and industry until late November, in advance of its Christmas Day release, so there isn’t much time for the film to build momentum on the awards scene, but it might already have all it needs. It won writing prizes from the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review, and it earned additional writing noms from the Chicago Film Critics Association, the London Critics Circle, and the Online Film Critics Society. The Writers Guild Awards have yet to announce their film nominees (those will be revealed January 4), but they’ve cited Anderson four times before, so don’t be surprised if he makes the cut there too.

As of this writing only two of the Expert film journalists we’ve polled are predicting a nomination here for Anderson: Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and Adnan Virk (ESPN). But our elite users are much more confident about his chances: 12 of our Top 24 Users are forecasting a nomination in this category, and so are six of our All-Star Top 24. That’s significant because our Top 24 got the highest scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, and our All-Stars got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ predictions.

SIGN UPfor Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions

What do you think? Will Anderson score his fifth writing nomination? And if he makes the cut, will he finally win his first Oscar?

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.