Sen. Rand Paul’s presidential campaign limped into August under the weight of poor fundraising and sapped staff morale.

Then the indictments last week of two longtime Paul advisers sent shock waves through the Kentucky Republican’s orbit.


And, last Thursday, Paul was widely seen as falling short in the first GOP presidential debate before a huge television audience.

Now the bad news: Paul’s woeful month could get even worse.

Paul has been furiously lobbying Kentucky Republican leaders ahead of an Aug. 22 decision to rewrite party rules so he can run for president and reelection to his Senate seat simultaneously, a hedge to hold onto power should his Oval Office aspirations falter. Running for the two offices at once creates tricky legal hurdles that are surmountable only with the assent of the Kentucky Republican Party’s leadership and central committee.

Though that approval once seemed assured, several members of the party executive committee told POLITICO they’re seeing increasing trepidation, in part because of Paul’s perceived fade from contention but also because he hasn’t yet fulfilled promises to cover the cost of any changes.

“I think it’s fair to say that among members of this committee that they’re always aware of the financial impact of anything new on the organization that they serve,” said state GOP chairman Steve Robertson. “I think it’s pretty fair to say that members of the committee think this thing could be anywhere from $400,000 to $600,000. That’s obviously something that weighs appropriately on the minds of the folks on the committee.”

Others were blunter.

“There should be no direct cost to the party,” said Scott Lasley, a state executive committee member who chaired the party committee that drafted the plan Paul favors. “If the money is not there … then I think all bets are off.”

Without the money, another executive committee member said, Paul’s plan should be “DOA.” Yet another worried that Paul’s efforts to salvage a long-shot presidential bid could cost Republicans a must-win Senate seat.

“I do not want to lose a Senate seat,” the committee member said. “I am concerned that he promised that if he realized he wasn’t going to win [the presidential nomination], he’d get out. But when is that going to be?”

A vote of the 340-member state Central Committee is scheduled a week from Saturday, and Paul is planning to be there to plead his case. Two-thirds support is required to finalize the changes. If Paul were to lose the vote, his team might still have legal avenues to run for both offices. But it would also represent a rare home-state rebuke at an inopportune time.

At issue is a Kentucky law that prevents candidates from appearing on the ballot twice. To circumvent that restriction, Paul’s team wants to scrap the state’s May presidential primary and replace it with a March 5 caucus. Switching to a nominating caucus does nothing to change the problem if he were the party’s presidential nominee. In that case, his name would be slated to appear on the general election ballot in both contests, creating a “real interesting legal question,” according to Robertson.

What has irked Republicans in Kentucky most is how Paul has yet to raise money for the caucus effort. It’s unclear exactly how much the caucuses would cost, though estimates range from a low of $350,000 to a high of $750,000. Other critics worry that the change would be so confusing that many voters would end up disenfranchised, even though the proposal includes an unusual process to allow absentee, military and overseas voting for eligible caucus participants.

Aware of the stakes, Paul and his top advisers have been directly engaged with Kentucky Republican leaders to smooth the way for their plan. Paul’s chief strategist, Doug Stafford, has been in regular contact with state GOP officials, and Paul’s Kentucky political director, Jim Milliman, has also been deeply involved. They’re delivering a clear message: We will make good on our promise to pay for the caucus. The Paul campaign declined to divulge specifics of its behind-the-scenes maneuvering but reiterated its pledge to pay the full cost.

“Sen. Paul stands by his statement that this caucus wouldn’t cost the party anything, that he would fund it,” said Stafford. “The money is in the bank, and we anticipate the support of the full central committee for a caucus in 2016.”

Rand Paul speaks at a campaign stop, Thursday, July 2, 2015, in Brooklyn, Iowa. | AP Photo

Shielding the party from additional costs is particularly critical as state Republicans fight a two-front war to retake the governor’s mansion — which is up for grabs this year — and to take control of the long-elusive state House next year. State party officials, in particular, noted that Kentucky Democrats had outraised the GOP in the early part of the governor’s race, in part because of Republican nominee Matt Bevin’s icy relationship with party donors.

Paul pledged to raise money for the caucus in order to win Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s endorsement of the change in February. McConnell had initially been skeptical of the push. But with Paul vowing to raise money for the effort, preferably from out-of-state donors, McConnell publicly backed it. That backing was enough to push the matter through a vote of the state’s 50-member executive committee in March.

The feeling, however, has changed ahead of the full committee’s membership consideration later this month. Several who voted to advance the change told POLITICO their decision was purely preliminary and that they simply wanted more time to consider it. Passage, they said, is uncertain at best.

Paul’s standing in the presidential race has slipped significantly since the initial vote. His performance in last week’s debate — in which the senator aggressively attacked Donald Trump and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — was widely panned. He’s now in eighth place in the polls released thus far that will determine eligibility in the next debate, according to a POLITICO analysis.

In another sign of Paul’s fade, executive committee members who support the switch to a caucus argued not that it would benefit Paul, but that it would give the 16 other Republican presidential candidates a reason to visit Kentucky. The caucus proposal would award delegates proportionally to any candidates who earned more than 5 percent of the statewide vote, a low threshold that would offer opportunities for Paul’s opponents to snag support.

“What coup would that be to pull delegates away from Paul in his own geography? I would probably double down in Kentucky,” said Troy Sheldon, an executive committee member who supports Paul and added that he still expects Paul to win the Bluegrass State.

While the Aug. 22 meeting is critical, the state party has until Oct. 1 to inform the Republican National Committee whether it will hold a primary or caucus. That could presumably give Paul more time to raise money.

“I know Sen. Paul’s committed to help fund this,” said Sheldon, who added that Paul’s recent struggles shouldn’t be a factor in the decision about moving to a caucus. “We’ve seen this before where people start out slow and gain momentum. He’s got the type of personality and policies that if the press will give him a little time, he will garner a lot more support out there. … People sometimes don’t like change.”

Paul, looking to dig out of a hole in the presidential race, spent Monday evening slamming Trump — calling him “a bully” in an op-ed and on a conference call with reporters.

That opened the door to retorts from the embattled real estate mogul’s Twitter account, which first compared Paul to “a spoiled brat without a properly functioning brain” — and then hit his opponent closer to home in a subsequent tweet: “Why is @RandPaul allowed to take advantage of the people of Kentucky by running for Senator and Pres? Why should Kentucky be back up plan?”