THERE has been a collective sense of joy around the Brisbane Lions’ recent resurgence.

After so long in the doldrums, Chris Fagan has his young side playing an exciting, fun-to-watch brand of footy that is also giving them some success.

LISTEN TO THE LATEST EPISODE OF THE FOX FOOTY PODCAST BELOW, OR TAP HERE TO SUBSCRIBE IN ITUNES

Finals Week 1

Brisbane has only won four games this season but it feels like more than that - not just because of the low base the club is coming from, but from how impressive they have been even in some losses.

Now new numbers, surfaced by Reddit user smiley_mick, have revealed what both the naked eye and percentage suggest - Brisbane is one of the best bad teams in footy history.

LIVE Stream every match of every round of the 2018 Toyota AFL Premiership Season. SIGN UP NOW >

BASED ON WHAT EXACTLY?

This argument is all based on the contrast between a win-loss record and percentage.

The latter tells you more about how good a team is over a season, because a single kick can decide a match, but you can’t fluke your way into a good percentage.

If you need an example to prove that, think of North Melbourne in 2016. The Kangaroos were 9-0, but most thought they weren’t actually the best team in the competition. They had the fifth-best percentage in the AFL at the time.

Fast forward to the end of the season and the Roos were 12-10 and eighth - percentage was a better indicator of the quality of that team than its win-loss record was.

Brisbane sits with a 4-13 record after 18 rounds, with a percentage of 91.8. Only six times in VFL/AFL history has a team had a win-loss record worse than or equal to that with a better percentage.

BRISBANE HAS ALREADY PROVEN ITSELF

We’re already seen how a percentage that is much better than its connected win-loss record can come before a team puts together a series of wins. Brisbane itself has done that.

The Lions were much better than their record suggested after Round 14 - despite some prominent commentators declaring they were disappointed in the club because it wasn’t winning games.

In fact, at 1-12 and with a percentage of 78.4, Brisbane had a better percentage than any team with a win-loss record worse than or equal to that in VFL/AFL history.

The Lions then put together a three-match winning streak, proving their percentage wasn’t lying.

But in even better news for Brisbane, having a strong percentage but underachieving in the win-loss column usually bodes well in the ensuing seasons.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THOSE TEAMS?

At the top of the list of what we’re calling the best bad teams is South Melbourne in 1943.

After Round 11, those Swans had a record of 2-8 but a percentage of 94.1. Almost immediately after that point, the team started to find success.

By the end of the season (five weeks later), they were 6-9. The next year they finished 9-9 and in 1945, South Melbourne was minor premier with a record of 16-4. The Swans lost the Grand Final to Carlton in the club’s last appearance in the flag decider until 1996.

Essendon in 1927 and Fitzroy in 1978 had similar growth over the ensuing seasons.

The Bombers went from 2-8-1 (with a percentage of 93.4) to 6-11-1 in that season, just missing finals at 11-7 in 1928.

The Lions (who appear twice on the list from the same season) went from a 2-9 record at mid-season (and a percentage of 92.5) to 8-14. A year later, Fitzroy went 15-7 and recorded its fourth-last finals win ever before the merger.

The only side on the list that was worse after a high percentage but bad win-loss record was Hawthorn in 1931. Those Hawks went from 3-11 and a percentage of 91.9 to 3-15, then winning the wooden spoon in 1932.

But of all of these examples, the most recent is the most promising.

LIONS, TIGERS AND FLAGS, OH MY

One of the great runs to the finals in recent history was completed by Richmond in 2014.

After 13 matches, those Tigers sat 16th on the ladder with a 3-10 record. It looked bad for them; however, they had a percentage of 92.5. The signs were there that this team was better than it seemed.

Nine weeks and nine wins later, Trent Cotchin was leading his team into the finals (and into the wind at the Adelaide Oval).

And while there was a blip in 2016, the Tigers did play finals again in 2015 and as some readers may be aware, won the 2017 premiership.

HEADING INTO A PURPLE PATCH?

One final comparison for the Lions, which is slightly less but still promising, is one with Fremantle - who was in the exact same position as Brisbane is one decade ago.

After 17 rounds of the 2008 season, the Dockers sat 4-13 with a percentage of 91.8, following a series of extremely close losses early in the year.

The team, which featured Rising Star winner Rhys Palmer, lost eight games for the year by less than 10 points.

Those Dockers were in fact the closest to giving Geelong a second home and away loss, losing by just a point to one of the most dominant sides in history (Grand Final excluded, quite obviously).

Fremantle finished 2008 with a 6-16 record, and while it declined in 2009, the club then returned to September action in 2010. Two years later, Ross Lyon took over and the club entered the best period in its history, making the 2013 Grand Final.

Clearly, Brisbane will be hoping its improvement is even faster than that, but a Grand Final appearance within five seasons for the Lions would surely be graded by most as success.

WHAT WILL THIS MEAN FOR BRISBANE?

The Lions’ percentage suggests they’re about as good as a team that would usually finish between 10th and 13th, rather than the bottom four.

Based on that standard, we’d expect them to win one or two more games this year.

Admittedly, their run home is a tough one, with Geelong (away), North Melbourne (home), Collingwood (away), Gold Coast (away) and West Coast (home) to come. But we would expect them to beat the Suns and maybe upset one of the finals contenders - perhaps the Roos.

That’s a base of six wins to build on. We’ve seen teams go from six wins to double digits before - if Brisbane keeps building like it has this season, why can’t it do that in 2019?

And from there, who knows where they could end up?