If Malcolm Turnbull could resolve his Tony Abbott problem by recalling him to cabinet, he would. Alas, it is rarely that simple.

Abbott's determination to stay beyond this year's election was always a sleeper. But his decision to ratchet up public pressure for a spot in the executive represents the single sharpest risk to the government between now and 2019 – an existential threat that if mishandled could cause an implosion.

Exaggeration? Hardly. We've seen this film before. Australia remembers a toxic leadership dynamic bearing uncanny similarities to this. Such was the volatility of that tawdry entanglement that old certainties vaporised.

Kevin Rudd, hero of Labor's 2007 triumph, never imagined as late as the winter of 2010 that he would not even make it to the election due that year.