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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 002617 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018 TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, IS SUBJECT: ISRAEL'S PRIMARY COLORS REF: TEL AVIV 2534 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Luis G. Moreno. Reason 1.4 (B/D) 1. (C) Summary: The major parties are gearing up for primary elections in December, which will mark the first stage in the parties' efforts to construct a winning "party list" for the general elections. Israeli polls have consistently put the Kadima and Likud parties neck-and-neck in the race for the most seats, with approximately thirty going to each party, but two polls last week showed a significant leap ahead for Likud, which could nearly triple its current parliamentary representation of 12 seats in the next Knesset. Netanyahu has attracted Likud luminaries who were once his strongest critics back to the fold, and brought in some new faces as well; his challenge will be to articulate a vision that allows the party to remain cohesive. Netanyahu is running a campaign that is focused on experience and the economy, while down-playing the peace process, but many Israelis ascribe recent plunges in the Israeli stock market (and in pension funds) to free-market policies adopted while Netanyahu served as Finance Minister (2003-5). 2. (C) Summary Continued: Tzipi Livni lost some steam in the polls for the first time since her Kadima Party leadership battle, which observers attributed to an unimaginative political message of "business-as-usual" that was heightened by new revelations that yet another Kadima minister of finance, Ronnie Bar-On, may have engaged in illegal activity. Bar-On's plan to address the economic crisis underwhelmed the Israeli public, and Kadima missed an opportunity to put forward a strategy to shore up savings and pensions, leaving Netanyahu an opportunity to shop ideas for a more robust social safety net. The Labor Party continues to splinter under the weight of what the public perceives as poor communication skills on the part of Defense Minister Barak, political deadwood and little room on its party list for new blood; the party could lose half its seats in the February election. High-profile personalities on the left, including prominent authors David Grossman and Amos Oz are casting their support for Haim Oron's Meretz Party, which could be rebranded as a constellation of a variety of left-of-center parties, ranging from the greens to Meimad. Many pundits anticipate that the coming elections will mark the ascendancy of the right, and fragmentation of the left, but Kadima still has time to formulate a coherent appeal to Israel's centrist majority. End Summary. --------- Primaries --------- 3. (C) The Likud, Kadima, Meretz and even Shas campaigns appear to be copying elements of the Obama campaign -- from slogans down to color motifs on websites and billboards, and even American campaign staff -- in their efforts to rally voters. The party leaders head the party lists, so the primary fights will be for the "slots" that follow. Theoretically, each party may put together a list of up to 120 members, but the actual number of Knesset seats each party wins depends on the percentage of the popular vote that it wins. Likud, Kadima, Labor and Meretz also have scheduled primary votes of their respective party members in December. ------------------------- Likud: Bibi-Begin-Boogie ------------------------- 4. (C) For the first time since Tzipi Livni won the Kadima leadership primaries in September Netanyahu has climbed past her in national polling. A Yediot Aharonoth Dahaf poll on November 20 gave Kadima 26 seats to Likud's 32 while a Ha'aretz Dialog poll of November 21 gave Likud 34 seats to 28 for Kadima. The Likud Party is now viewed as the party with a head of steam, and many past luminaries and a number of new converts (from the left and even the far right) are attempting to hitch their cars to this train. These include former Police Chief and Laborite Assaf Hefetz (who has his sights on the Ministry of Public Security), MG (reserve) Yossi Peled, and former NSC head Uzi Dayan, of the short-lived, centrist Tafnit Party. At a Likud central committee gathering in mid-November, Bibi commended his 11 colleagues who stayed with the party during its nearly three years in the opposition, but the media and pundits devote airtime and ink to the "return of the Likud princes (i.e., sons of founders of the party)" to the fold after more than a decade of disgruntlement with Netanyahu's leadership of the party. The grandson and namesake of the party's ideological forefather, Ze'ev Jabotinsky, also announced he would join the primary race. Likud has promised that any position between 19 and 35 on its electoral list would be reserved for TEL AVIV 00002617 002 OF 003 women, immigrants, a youth representative and newcomers representing a variety of regions and interest groups. 5. (C) That Bibi has been able to bring back old critics from his days as PM in the 1990's -- including the clean and incorrigible former ministers, Benny Begin and Dan Meridor -- is testimony to the expectations that many in Likud have for the party's resurgence. Non-Likud skeptics scratch their heads at how a centrist like Meridor can fit under the same roof as a staunch right-winger such as Begin, but Netanyahu's vision of "economic peace" with the Palestinians may be sufficiently vague as to appease both leaders, who share strong skepticism about negotiations with the PA. Even the son of the assassinated Labor Prime Minister, Yitzak Rabin, recently indicated that he was contemplating voting for Likud in the upcoming election. Netanyahu also secured the support of Moshe "Boogie" Ya'alon, the former IDF Chief of General Staff, who oversaw the initial IDF response to the second Intifada, but was jettisoned by then PM Sharon and then-MOD Mofaz over his opposition to Gaza disengagement. That is about as far to the right as Netanyahu wants to take the Likud, and he has dissuaded the religious Zionist MK, Effie Eitam, from trying to jump aboard the Likud ship. Netanyahu will have a far harder time trying to minimize the standing of his erstwhile challenger (circa 2007) Moshe Feighlin, who represents the far right element of the Likud Party, during Likud primaries that are set for December 8. ------------------------------------------- Kadima Says Livni is "What the State Needs" ------------------------------------------- 6. (C) Livni appears to be resting on her reputation for honesty and incorruptibility, hoping that the country will reward her for refusing to give in to the economic and diplomatic blackmail of the ultra-Orthodox party, Shas, which rebuffed her during her October efforts to form a coalition. But most political observers assess that she displayed impatience, if not incompetence, in those negotiations and lost the opportunity to become prime minister. She reportedly continues to blame the ultra-Orthodox for selling out the country, and billboards plunked along the Tel Aviv-Herzliya highway proclaim that Livni ("it") is "what" the state needs. Livni's campaign has yet to articulate what "it" is -- beyond a new face and Olmert-less leadership -- that Livni offers the country. Ha'aretz journalist and regular Olmert critic, Ari Shavit, assessed that "Likud is demonstrating power, modeling morality, the rule of law and leadership experience, while Kadima is limp, hiding behind a rosy-cheeked face (of Livni) on a hollow campaign billboard." That Olmert continues to serve -- and speak -- as interim prime minister hurts Livni's effort to galvanize the Kadima party under her leadership. Moreover, Olmert's recent, repeated statements about the need for Israel to return to 1967 borders, including giving up Arab areas of Jerusalem, overshadows Livni's efforts to promote a distinct political message for Kadima that does not open her up to attack from the right. 7. (C) Livni has succeeded in bringing the former Yisrael Beiteinu number two, MK Israel Hasson, to her party, but she has lost at least one settler MK, Ze'ev Elkin, and may lose more. The numbers of politicians flocking to Kadima are few and far between, although Vice Premier and Olmert confidante, Haim Ramon, has recently decided to remain with Kadima and will serve as the party's campaign manager. On November 23, Ramon predicted that Netanyahu would form a right-wing government that would clash with the incoming U.S. administration. However, Livni's strongest allies -- MK Hanegbi and Minister Bar-On -- are both tainted with scandal, which could harm the Kadima brand name that Livni is trying to cultivate. Moreover, Livni, who is not known for her expertise on economic matters, will likely have to start weighing in more on economic issues as the election campaign progresses, particularly as her chief opponent, Netanyahu, is considered a real heavyweight on the subject. Kadima's primary is slated for December 17, and 78 candidates are on its list. ------------------------ Labor and the Left Field ------------------------ 8. (C) Livni's only solace is that the Minister of Defense who belittles her is doing far worse in the polls than she. Ehud Barak's Labor Party may lose half its 19 seats in the next Knesset, if polls prove accurate. This has created a great deal of discontent within Labor's ranks, particularly as Barak has promised his loyalists ("Fuad" Ben Eliezer and Shalom Simchon) prime slots on Labor's list and left little realistic room for newcomers or minorities. Former party leader, Amir Peretz, and an MK Ophir Pines-Paz are jockeying for position to succeed Barak after the February elections. TEL AVIV 00002617 003 OF 003 If Labor loses a large number of seats, new party leadership is in store. Barak's most recent rival for party leadership, MK Ami Ayalon, has jumped ship, leaving Labor to join the Meimad faction, currently represented by just one MK, Rabbi Michael Melchior. Together this odd-couple may join forces with a new constellation in left field that is being formed by the Meretz Party leader, Haim Oron. Oron is well-liked in the Knesset and the Kibbutz Movement, and has attracted a following of disaffected Barak supporters, pro-peace politicians, academics and writers, including two of Israel's most famous sons: Amos Oz and David Grossman. This amalgam hopes to coalesce with the Green Party to form a social democratic left bloc of some 10-12 seats, but neither Oz nor Grossman are candidates for the Knesset. The movement will gather again on December 5 and decide on next steps and possibly a new name for a broad left-leaning list. Failing that, the Meretz Party will hold its primary on December 14, at which time the rank order of the 22 candidates for its list will be determined. Meanwhile, Labor will hold its primaries on December 2. ----------------------------------------- Right Field Reinventing Religious Zionism ----------------------------------------- 9. (C) Yisrael Beiteinu has taken a hit in the polls, but its leader Avigdor "Yvet" Lieberman used the municipal campaign that ended November 11 (reftel) as an opportunity to rally supporters. Despite losing Israel Hasson to Kadima, Yvet has won some new recruits of renown, including former Ambassador to the U.S. Danny Ayalon and, more recently, former Likud MK, Uzi Landau, who has been promised the number two slot on the YB list. Yisrael Beiteinu's top leadership will determine the party's list. At a joint press conference with Lieberman on November 17, Landau lamented leaving Likud, but explained, in an interview with the Jerusalem Post, that he feared that Netanyahu would form a national unity government with Kadima and give a leadership position to Tzipi Livni. The religious Zionist camp has gone through its own transformation -- dissolving the joint National Religious Party/National Union (comprising Moledet, Tekuma and Renewed National Religious Zionism parties) list in the 17th Knesset in order to form a new party from most of the constituent elements. Only Effie Eitam's "Ahi" movement, which has succeeded the Renewed National Religious Zionism Party, has not signed up. The new party has been provisionally named the "Jewish Home," but has started an on-line competition to select a name and logo, The new party, which may or may not hold primaries to determine its Knesset candidates, aims to focus on Jewish identity as its policy priority over the traditional first-order focus on settling the entire, historic "Land of Israel" (i.e. the West Bank). We will report septel on the political dynamics with the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox Shas Party, and recent splits and tensions within its Ashkenazi counterpart, United Torah Judaism. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** MORENO