Story Highlights Job approval was below 40% in 16 states, 50% or higher in 17 states

Highest approval rating in West Virginia (62%), Wyoming (61%)

Lowest job approval in Hawaii (26%), Vermont (28%)

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's job approval rating varied widely across the U.S. states in 2018, with 17 states giving him ratings of 50% or higher, and 16 states giving him ratings below 40%. The states most approving of Trump were generally in the South and Mountain West areas of the country, while he fared most poorly in New England and on the West Coast.

In 2017, Trump had approval of 50% or higher in 12 states -- five fewer than in 2018 -- and approval below 40% in 17 states -- one more than in 2018. Those shifts reflect the modest improvement this past year in his approval ratings nationally, from 38% in 2017 to 40% in 2018.

The five states that moved to 50% or higher job approval last year were Missouri, Kansas, South Carolina, Mississippi and Utah.

Results are based on combined data from the 2018 Gallup tracking poll, encompassing interviews with more than 73,000 U.S. adults, including 500 or more in 38 states and 1,000 or more in 27 states. Each state sample has been weighted to match the demographic characteristics of that state's population to ensure it is representative of the state's residents. Full data for all 50 states are shown at the end of the article.

Although much can change between now and Election Day 2020, a job approval rating of 50% or higher would presumably put Trump in good position to win a state in the presidential election. The 17 states with 50%+ approval ratings account for a combined total of 102 electoral votes. In contrast, the states in which Trump has an approval rating below 40% account for 201 electoral votes.

In order to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Trump would have to win all but one or two of the states in which his 2018 approval rating was between 41% and 49%. Some of the more challenging states to win from among this group, based on that approval rating, would be Texas (41%); Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (all at 42%); and Arizona and Florida (43%). Trump won all of those states in 2016, and thus it is certainly possible that he can do so again. But he clearly has a lot of ground to make up in those states to get close enough to 50% that he can finish with more electoral votes nationwide than the Democratic candidate.

Trump's Ratings Best in West Virginia, Wyoming

West Virginia (62%) and Wyoming (61%) residents were most approving of Trump's performance in 2018 and were the only two states with ratings above 60%. South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Mississippi and Alabama had the next-highest approval ratings for Trump, with Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas constituting the remainder of the top 10. All but Mississippi ranked among the top 10 states in 2017.

Highest Job Approval Ratings for President Trump, by State, 2018 Approve % West Virginia 62 Wyoming 61 South Dakota 58 North Dakota 58 Alaska 56 Mississippi 56 Alabama 55 Tennessee 54 Kentucky 53 Arkansas 53 Based on annual aggregate of Gallup tracking data Gallup

Trump's job approval ratings were lowest in Hawaii (26%) and Vermont (28%), with California and Massachusetts (each at 29%) also below 30%. The remainder of the bottom 10 includes Maryland, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and New Hampshire, with three states (Rhode Island, Connecticut and Washington) tied for 10th lowest.

Lowest Job Approval Ratings for President Trump, by State, 2018 Approve % Hawaii 26 Vermont 28 Massachusetts 29 California 29 Maryland 31 New York 32 Illinois 35 New Jersey 35 New Hampshire 35 Rhode Island 36 Washington 36 Connecticut 36 Based on annual aggregate of Gallup tracking data Gallup

The rank-order of Trump job approval in 2018 aligns with his performance in the 2016 presidential election. The states ranked first (West Virginia) through 30th (Texas) are the 30 states Trump won in 2016, while Trump lost every state ranked between 31st (a four-way tie between Oregon, Virginia, Nevada and Delaware) and 50th (Hawaii). Thus, it is unlikely Trump will win any states where his approval rating was not among the top 30 states in 2018.

Implications

Now that several Democratic politicians have announced their candidacies for the 2020 presidential election, the campaign gearing up. Trump's job approval ratings by state give a baseline estimate of how his re-election prospects stand from an Electoral College perspective. While his ratings in 17 states are high enough to suggest he has a good chance of winning those states in the presidential election next year, they tend to be smaller states and account for barely a third of the electoral votes he would need to win the presidency. A second Trump term will be won or lost in the larger states that he won in 2016 but had approval ratings in the low 40s in 2018. He cannot lose more than one or two of those states and still win the election, particularly because it appears unlikely that he would prevail in any state he did not win in 2016.

Increasing his approval rating by close to 10 percentage points in those key states seems like an uphill battle at this point, but several factors could make it possible. Recent polling suggests Trump's current job approval rating is already improved compared with where it was for much of 2018. If he can sustain those higher levels, presumably his approval ratings would be showing similar increases in most, if not all, states.

Second, differences in turnout by party could increase Trump's odds of winning in those states. For example, though Texas as a whole is relatively competitive in terms of party identification, Republicans continue to dominate in statewide elections there, perhaps because of lower participation among Hispanics. To the extent Republican voters in the key states participate at higher rates than Democratic voters, a Trump job approval rating in the mid- to high 40s may be enough to allow him to win those states.

Last, there are several examples when presidents who had nationwide approval ratings in the 40% range in the year before the election won a second term, including Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. All managed to get to 50% approval by the time of the presidential election. Trump has yet to attain that level in his presidency, but he will have the next 20 months to get to there, and to make the case to Americans that he deserves a second term.

Explore President Trump's approval ratings and compare them with those of past presidents in the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center.

President Trump Job Approval by State, 2018 Approve Disapprove N % % EAST Maine 37 61 412 New Hampshire 35 58 350 Vermont 28 69 249 Massachusetts 29 67 1,623 Rhode Island 36 60 298 Connecticut 36 59 927 New York 32 62 4,591 New Jersey 35 59 1,860 Pennsylvania 42 54 3,272 Maryland 31 65 1,337 Delaware 40 57 250 West Virginia 62 36 445 MIDWEST Ohio 48 48 2,629 Michigan 42 54 2,319 Indiana 48 47 1,575 Illinois 35 61 2,374 Wisconsin 42 53 1,447 Minnesota 39 57 1,507 Iowa 45 51 825 Missouri 52 43 1,532 North Dakota 58 36 241 South Dakota 58 41 303 Nebraska 49 47 507 Kansas 50 46 746 SOUTH Virginia 40 57 2,022 North Carolina 45 50 2,433 South Carolina 50 46 1,262 Georgia 44 52 2,214 Florida 43 51 4,709 Kentucky 53 43 1,124 Tennessee 54 41 1,692 Alabama 55 41 1,275 Mississippi 56 41 666 Arkansas 53 41 758 Louisiana 49 45 1,117 Oklahoma 51 44 1,073 Texas 41 52 5,898 WEST Montana 51 45 427 Arizona 43 52 948 Colorado 39 56 1,549 Idaho 51 44 591 Wyoming 61 36 286 Utah 50 45 952 Nevada 40 55 647 New Mexico 38 55 653 California 29 65 8,116 Oregon 40 56 1,316 Washington 36 59 1,980 Hawaii 26 69 301 Alaska 56 40 232 Based on annual aggregate of Gallup tracking data. Samples for Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming were supplemented with data from 2018 Gallup Poll Social Series data. Gallup

Editor's Note: The story has been updated to correct the sample size of national adults.