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How the heck is this game even happening?

The Texans and Chiefs each had a 2-5 record on Halloween. The Texans needed four different starting quarterbacks to get through the season. The Chiefs lost their most important offensive and defensive playmakers, Jamaal Charles and Justin Houston, for huge chunks of the year. The Texans only got four games from their most reliable offensive weapon, Arian Foster, while J.J. Watt played most of the playoff chase with a cast on his hand.

Are we sure the Colts and Jets aren't going to run out of the tunnels holding banners that say "Surprise!"?

Nope. The Colts squandered opportunities they didn't even know they had. The Jets trapped themselves behind the tiebreaker by doing things like losing to the Texans and their third-string quarterback. Those teams don't belong here. The Texans and Chiefs do.

The Texans belong here because T.J. Yates led them to wins against good teams like the Jets and Bengals, while Brandon Weeden did what he had to against the Colts and Titans. They are here because throwing to DeAndre Hopkins is like throwing pebbles in a lake. They are here because Whitney Mercilus had some huge sack games to take pressure off Watt, while Jadeveon Clowney became more than a famous name on an injury report. They are here because Bill O'Brien juggled running backs deftly (most of the time) when Foster was out and wasn't shy about sprinkling Wildcat plays into the game plan to extend the shelf lives of emergency quarterbacks. They are here because Brian Hoyer is not a terrible quarterback.

The Texans are also here because the AFC South was a cakewalk. That's a rather important detail.

The Chiefs are in the playoffs because they have one of the NFL's best defenses. Despite Charles' absence, they have one of the best and least predictable running games (lots of counters and option concepts) in the NFL. They have a plus-14 turnover differential, second only to the Panthers this year, and they earned it through design, not luck. They have a deep secondary and a scheme built to generate interceptions, while Alex Smith has one of the lowest interception rates in NFL history. They have outstanding special teams, giving them a big edge against opponents (like the Texans) who are adequate at best in the kicking game.

The Chiefs have also spent the last two months compensating for a banged-up, patched-together offensive line and a receiving corps consisting of Jeremy Maclin and four guys who make Todd Pinkston look like Jerry Rice. Maclin suffered a minor hip injury in the season finale and may not be 100 percent Saturday. Center Mitch Morse is going through concussion protocol. The Chiefs have had a hard time putting away opponents—such as the Chargers, Browns and Raiders—in recent weeks. No matter how creative the scheme or disciplined the players, a lack of playmakers inevitably catches up to an offense.

The Texans defense matches up very well with the Chiefs offense: Johnathan Joseph can slow Maclin, none of the other receivers are equipped to exploit the weaknesses elsewhere in the Texans secondary and the Watt Gang will threaten Smith much more than most recent opponents could.

Both teams have improved since Halloween. The Chiefs improved more, but the margin is not that extreme. The Chiefs should win not because they are Super Bowl contenders facing the fluke victors of a mid-major conference, but because they excel at little things like goal-to-go efficiency and field-position management that tilt low-scoring games in their favor. Those aren't advantages you want to lean on against the Patriots, but they can get you past the Houston Diet Patriots.

Adam Teicher of ESPN.com reported this week that Alex Smith had to pause when asked the name of the last Chiefs quarterback to win a playoff game, writing, "Then he blurted the answer: Joe Montana, who led the Chiefs to a 28-20 win over the Houston Oilers in January 1994. The Chiefs have lost eight playoff games since." Yes, it has been 22 years since the Chiefs won in the postseason. The team they beat long ago changed its name and location.

The Chiefs enjoyed three 13-win seasons since that last playoff victory. Smith and head coach Andy Reid have led them to three straight winning seasons. Several Hall of Famers (or soon-to-be Hall of Famers) spent the bulks of their careers with the Chiefs during the long playoff drought. They have been a well-run organization for most of that span, though they have a taste for coaches (Reid, Marty Schottenheimer) who excel at reaching the playoffs with iffy on-paper talent, then lose to opponents who simply put 22 better guys on the field.

The Chiefs have better guys this week. That won't be the case next week. But at least Smith has a chance to make some new playoff memories while erasing any lingering memories of this season's awful start.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Texans 14