Ann Arbor, Mich. -- Ice covers nearly 90 percent of the Great Lakes and could break a record next week.

Lake Ontario, traditionally the last of the lakes to freeze, has 32 percent of its surface area covered with ice. While that's by far the least of the Great Lakes, that's still nearly three times Ontario's long-term average of 11 percent.

Ontario's reluctance to freeze over means that it will continue to generate lake effect snow in Central New York as cold Arctic winds blow over the relatively warmer water. Tug Hill has been hammered with snow this year, although Syracuse is about 6 inches below the average of 71 inches through Feb. 12.

"I've been watching the news lately, and you've had a lot of lake effect," said George Leshkevich, a physical scientist with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Mich. "That's likely to continue as long as there's open water on the lake."

In a typical winter, ice covers about 32 percent of the entire Great Lakes system, but only 11 percent of Lake Ontario. That's because Lake Ontario has a smaller surface area compared to its depth, so it loses heat more slowly.

Ice cover on Lake Ontario as measured by the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Mich., on Feb. 13, 2014.

It's like putting coffee in tall, narrow mug instead of a short, wide one. The taller cup keeps the coffee warmer.

The open water of Lake Ontario is about 34.7 degrees, Leshkevich said. The open water of Lake Michigan is about 2 degrees colder.

Lake Erie is 96 percent ice covered, Leshkevich said. That means Buffalo, which has had its ninth-snowiest winter on record with 85 inches so far, will likely get much less lake effect snow while the lake remains frozen. That will also give Syracuse a fighting chance to take home this winter's Golden Snowball Award. The award is given each year to the large Upstate city with the most snow.

Total ice cover on the Great Lakes could break a record next week. The record is 95 percent, set in 1979. Records only go back to 1973.

Ice tends to be at its peak in mid- to late February in the lower Great Lakes, Leshkevich said, and late February to early March in more northerly Lake Superior.

Here are the latest totals for each lake, by percentage of surface area covered with ice. The entire Great Lakes average is 87 percent, the most since 1994.

Erie: 96

Superior: 95

Huron: 95

Michigan: 80

Ontario: 32

Contact Glenn Coin at gcoin@syracuse.com or 315-470-3251. Follow him on Twitter @glenncoin