No EU Team Will Get Out of Groups, All 3 NA Teams Will Oddoman Follow Oct 4, 2017 · 10 min read

Yea that’s right, just before the group stage starts here is a piece that’s sure to tilt plenty of fanboys. I see far too many articles where experts are giving hesitant predictions for who they think will emerge top 2 in each group. Usually saying who they think will come out on top, followed up by “But I could see this team coming out as well.” Enough of the safe predictions, I’ll tell you right here that not a single European team makes it out of the group stage. Not only that, but every single North American team will make it into the round of eight.

This isn’t going to be about whether NA is greater than EU because that topic doesn’t interest me at all. I believe that all three teams representing both regions are about the same in terms of strength, but strength isn’t what matters when talking about who will get out of groups. Simply put Europe got an unlucky draw this year, while NA could hardly have hoped for a better set up.

The Curse Continues:

Starting off with the most competitive group in the tournament, G2 have almost no shot of making it out of this group. The demon that G2 made a deal with which allowed them to make it to the MSI finals has come to collect. In return they have been rewarded with a literal nightmare for the group stage. The only two ways that this group could be worse for G2 is if Cloud 9 and SK Telekom had somehow been placed into the group. G2 must face off against Royal Never Give up, Samsung Galaxy, and the strongest wildcard team 1907 Fenerbahce. Most people, including myself, predict Samsung to top the group with Royal edging out G2 in second place. The reason being is that in a best of one group stage, a format that G2 has historically been terrible in, G2 will be at their weakest.

Samsung is a bad matchup for the kings of Europe, they play the same game G2 wants to play, only they play it better. G2 acquired Weldon Green earlier in the year and stirred up some controversy with his new game approach. Choosing to not abuse obvious mistakes against weaker mechanical opponents, Weldon’s philosophy stems from the understanding that against stronger international opponents G2 wouldn’t be able to create those leads, and therefore should not rely on them to win. G2 elected to have superior map movements and baron control in order to play what Weldon called “perfect League of Legends.”

Spoiler Alert, trying this style will not work against a great late game team like Samsung. G2’s wins in Europe boiled down to two main factors; being better individual players than their opponents, and having superior baron control. Both of those factors virtually disappear when thrown into a game with a top Korean team. Samsung have been the best neutral objective team in the world for over a year now. If G2 really wants to have the game come down to whether they can out baron the best baron team in the world they shouldn’t be surprised when they get clapped.

My advice for G2 would be to review Samsung’s Spring series against KT Rolster. KT abused SSG’s weak lane bottom and steamrolled that advantage to an easy 3–0. G2 have probably the best bottom lane in the West and have the ability to win the 2v2. G2 should go all in on trying to win the game through that lane because it’s about the only part of the map that is in their favor.

The matchup against RNG might be even worse for G2 . RNG continue to show every year they attend Worlds that they are an amazing best of one team. G2 show at every international event that they are weak in a best of one setting. Based off these historical trends it’s no surprise why I don’t have a lot of hope in G2 making it out of this group. On a side note I think that RNG are actually the best Chinese team at this tournament, and have a serious shot of making a run to the final.

In bottom you have one of the most clutch worlds players ever “Uzi”, in middle you have “Xiaohu” who has been wrecking people left and right this split, then in the Jungle “MLXG” favors an aggressive gank heavy style both effective in this worlds meta and bad for G2 “Trick”. Even Fenerbahce could take a game off G2 in this group. One good early game cheese strategy could have them getting their only win of the group stage, which would be the kiss of death for G2.

Group C:

1. Samsung

2. Royal Never Give Up

3. G2

4. 1907 Fenerbahce

Just Happy to Be Here:

Misfits had a great freshman season in the LCS, even performing well enough to be Europe’s second seed for Worlds. Much like Splyce the previous year, Misfits literally have no chance of getting out of this group. Consisting Flash Wolves, Team WE, Team SoloMid, I don’t know anyone who has Misfits escaping the group. Despite having great mid-jungle synergy, as well as solid side lanes, Misfits are overmatched in this group. I do believe they are good enough to play spoiler to any of the other teams in this group by taking a game off one, or several, in groups.

The Flash Wolves have a vast amount of international experience, and have a such a solid core that despite looking shaking every year they manage to take games off top Korean teams. Team WE have a problem with consistently living up to the huge ceiling that this team should have, but are unlikely to finish below third. Team SoloMid have early game weaknesses and, like G2, problems in a best of one, but are so mechanically talented that the inevitable late game teamfights will probably go their way. Misfits would have to overcome just too many odds to even end up second in this group.

TSM have lucked their way into another ridiculously easy worlds group where they should come out as the first seed. No Korean team, the weakest pool one seed, there is literally no excuse this time. WE did not look too impressive during play-in, despite having the talent to challenge TSM for first. The Flash Wolves, and the entire LMS, come in looking very weak and probably won’t be as competitive as past years. One could even make the case that Misfits are the best possible EU team for TSM to face.

The odds are so heavily stacked in TSM’s favor that I just cannot imagine a world where they do not come out of this group. If TSM do not make it out of Group D it would be the single worst international showing in the team’s long history. Even for TSM this situation is too perfect for them to screw up.

Group D:

1. Team SoloMid

2. Team WE

3. Flash Wolves

4. Misfits

Europe’s Only Hope:

Group B is one of the weakest groups at this year’s worlds. Fnatic are one of the weakest teams in the entire tournament, and yet they are the best chance that the region has for escaping group stage. G2 stylistically can’t beat the teams in their group, Misfits mechanically cannot defeat the teams in their group. Fnatic do have the talent, style, and experience to make it out of this group if they can pull it together. However, I think it is more likely that Fnatic end the group in last place than them ending up in second place.

There is no way around it, Fnatic looked really bad during the group play-in stage. There was legitimate fear from the team themselves if they would even make it into the group stage. They eventually disposed of Hong Kong Attitude in a mildly competitive 3–0 series and looked stronger than their shaky play-in groups performance.

Much like G2, Fnatic have bad best of one showings, and honestly could end up at the bottom of the group. They do not know how to play around the middle lane and give up all map pressure when they put “Rekkles” into a side lane. They are far too one dimensional, Rekkles getting fed and carrying might as well be their only win condition. Fnatic are also brining two exploitable rookies with “Caps” and “Broxah”. They have so many things going against them that I can confidently predict they will not make it out of this group.

Longzhu’s strongest lanes, like Fnatic, are their side lanes. “Pray” and “Gorilla” are the best bottom lane in the world for another year, and you can bet that they are going to give Rekkles and “Jesiz” the business. “Cody Sun” is a weak player, but a combination of Olleh’s performance this split and the conservative way that Immortals play make me skeptical they will be able to take down IMT.

“Soaz” is one of the most clutch players in EU’s history, but he is up against his kryptonite in this group; Korean top laners. “Khan” showed in the LCK finals that he can be an absolute monster if given a carry pick like Jayce. “Flame” has had a massive resurgence this split on picks like Jarvan the fourth and Renekton. These key initiating champions in the hands of Flame are an instrumental piece to IMT’s success.

The real killer for Fnatic in the Immortals matchup is just how much Broxah can be exploited. We’ve seen how quickly he fell apart against Misfits when even a little bit of pressure was applied in his Jungle at the hands of “Maxlore”. “Xmithie” is a five-year LCS veteran who has attended multiple worlds. It is not hard to imagine that IMT will try to abuse FNC’s weakest player in an already winning Jungle match up.

Even the Gigabyte Marines have a chance to take games off Fnatic, and why not? Young Generation took a game against Fnatic in play-ins and the Marines are a stronger version of YG. Despite being weaker than their MSI form, the Marines can pose a serious threat to Fnatic and prevent them from exiting the group, even if FNC manage to take games off the other two teams in Group B.

Despite having the easiest of group of the three European teams, Fnatic have so many flaws that they won’t be able to take advantage of their position.

Group B:

1. Longzhu Gaming

2. Immortals

3. Fnatic

4. Gigabyte Marines

Completing the Dream:

Europe’s situation looks bad, the other two NA teams can do it, all that’s left is for Cloud 9 to come out of Group A. SK Telecom have more weaknesses than ever coming into this world championship, but none of the teams in this group can realistically punish them for it. SKT is probably going to end the group 6–0 and easily take their number 1 spot in the group.

AHQ on the other hand look like they are the worst team in the entire group stage. The LMS as a whole have been having a really rough year. AHQ are coming into worlds with the same lineup for the third year in a row. Every year the team looks worse, even star top laner “Ziv” has had a difficult split. This team is limping into worlds and will not pose much of a threat to the other teams in Group A.

Then the second-place spot comes down to the clash between Edward Gaming and Cloud 9. In a best of five scenario I would probably say that EDG have a 55–45 edge over Cloud 9. However, in a best of one scenario those odds are flipped in the other direction.

EDG, like many number one seeds from the major regions this year, have serious best of one flaws. They had to reverse sweep RNG in the LPL finals to win a series that they realistically should not have. Many of the team’s flaws from last year’s worlds are still present, shockingly weak top lane priority and a one-dimensional Jungler.

EDG are just a weaker version of the team they brought to worlds last year. The only real change in the lineup is their very new ADC “iBoy”. EDG have gotten stronger in areas they struggled in. “Clearlove” plays more towards the top of the map than he had last year. Scout has become a stronger individual player and can transition his leads more appropriately across the map.

More-over, some of the team’s weaknesses probably will go unpunished by Cloud 9. iBoy is a rookie, but Meiko is still a fantastic support player, and Cloud 9’s bottom lane looked really weak during the play-in stage. Clearlove may have weaknesses, but the Jungle pool is in his favor, and Contractz has proven that he is too impatient to properly setup his jungle invades and often kills himself.

However, I do believe that Cloud 9 will come out ahead of EDG at the end of the group stage. For one “Impact” is a much stronger player than “mouse”, no doubt the biggest weakness EDG have. “Jensen” has had a monster split, and can match Scout in the laning phase to prevent him obtaining advantages that he could then spread all over the map.

The real nail in the coffin for me though is the meta shift away from tanky engage supports. Meiko is so crucial to EDG’s chances to win games that this meta shift to ardent supports like Janna will severally hurt his ability to impact the game.

Group A:

1. SK Telecom T1

2. Cloud 9

3. Edward Gaming

4. AHQ

Overall, I think this Worlds group stage is going to be more exciting than last year’s. I can’t wait to see these teams finally hit the rift and see just how much salt is going to flow from fanboy’s expectations being completely shattered.