By Choi Kyong-ae



The U.S. dollar is likely to fall to 1,100 won by the end of the year following Federal Reserve hints of a possible delay to rate increases until next year, analysts said Friday.



They said Korea's major exporters such as Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor stand to lose for the rest of the year, while airline and shipping stocks are set to benefit from the won's strength against the dollar.



The dollar traded at 1,129.1 won late Friday, and has risen nearly 5 percent against the won this year.



"Helped by the weak won, Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor exports jumped 20 percent to 30 percent in August alone," Taurus Investment Securities economist Kim Jong-su said. "But they look set to lose all the gains in the coming months."



Importers such as Korean Air Lines, POSCO, and Hanjin Shipping are expected to rebound from recent falls as a strong won will help them spend less when purchasing fuel, he said.



On Friday, the bellwether Samsung Electronics fell 0.3 percent to end at 1.27 million won and Hyundai Motor declined 0.9 percent, falling to 161,000 won. Korean Air remained unmoved at 321,000 won and POSCO rose 0.5 percent to 185,000 won.



The Bank of Korea (BOK) projected exports to plunge 6.4 percent to $536 billion this year from $572.7 billion a year earlier.



Currency analysts said the BOK is expected to intervene in the foreign-exchange market in smoothing operations if it becomes volatile. The intervention is usually aimed at minimizing the impact on the market.



The BOK held its key interest rate unchanged at a record low 1.5 percent on Thursday, without cutting the base rate further to support growth. The move also helped push up the value of the Korean currency.



The central bank lowered its outlook for growth to 2.7 percent for this year from its July forecast of 2.8 percent due to escalating external uncertainties such as slowing demand from China, Korea's biggest trading partner.



"The won's move against the dollar partly depends on the BOK's next move in policy rate decisions in the coming months," Hyundai Futures analyst Chung Sung-yoon said. "If the domestic demand is not robust enough to meet the new outlook in the third and fourth quarters, there may be further easing by the central bank."



Some foreign brokerages considered the 2.7 percent growth outlook too optimistic. They said third-quarter gross domestic product data due on Oct. 23 would tell if the new outlook could be achieved.



"With the global macro backdrop, such as a weaker China, we expect the BOK policy stance to be considered too tight," Nomura Securities analyst Kwon Young-sun said in his research note. "We maintain our call for two 25-basis-point rate cuts to 1 percent by March 2016."



Meanwhile, U.S. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Sunday the Fed is still likely to raise the interest rate this year, but that this was "an expectation, not a commitment," adding there may not be a rate hike this year if the U.S. economy falters.



