Alabama appears to be on track to lose one of its nine votes in the electoral college, which is the voting mechanism to elect a president.

The lost vote would be the result of dropping a seat in Congress. The congressional seats are based on population by congressional district, and while Alabama as a whole is growing slowly, some states like Texas and Florida are growing much more rapidly.

Alabama isn't in the worst shape, as several states in the Northeast and Midwest stand to lose representation in Congress at the next Census, but Alabama is the only Southern state at risk.

A political consulting firm and an online media outlet are projecting that when the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are divvied up again following the 2020 census, Alabama's representation may be reduced to six seats from its current seven.

Both Election Data Services and Real Clear Politics are projecting Alabama to lose a seat in Congress, based on growth patterns since the last census in 2010.

States are awarded votes in the electoral college based on the number of representatives in Congress - which, with every state having two senators, it boils down to the House of Representatives.

Alabama's nine electoral college votes would be reduced to eight if the state lost a congressional district. If Alabama lost a seat, it would not take effect until the 2022 midterm elections. The first presidential election that would be affected would be in 2024. Alabama would also have only eight electoral college votes in the 2028 election.

Election Data Services shows that if the maps were redrawn today, Florida, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas would each grab one congressional seat. Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania would each lose one.

However, Alabama is set to join the list of states losing a seat by the next Census.

Both Election Data Services and Real Clear Politics agreed on the states that would lose congressional seats by 2020: Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia. Election Data Services projects that Illinois will lose two seats.

States that would gain seats: Arizona, Colorado, Florida (2 seats), North Carolina, Oregon and Texas. Texas could gain three or four seats, the projections indicate.

Election Data Services applied the new electoral college projections to the past five presidential elections and found that none of the outcomes would have been affected by the changes.

Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, cautioned that the projections are preliminary and subject to change as populations continue to shift, according to a press release on the latest projections.

"The change in administration could have a profound impact on population change and growth in this nation," Brace said. "Having worked with Census data and estimates since the 1970s, it is important to remember that major events like (Hurricane) Katrina and the 2008 recession each changed population growth patterns and that impacted and changed the next apportionment."

If a congressional district is taken away from Alabama, the state legislature would be charged with drawing new district lines.