Troy

People have been worried about machines taking their jobs for years, going back in the U.S. to the 19th century when legendary African-American steel driver John Henry prevailed in a contest with a steam-powered driver only to die of exhaustion.

But John Henry never had to deal with a robot that could be made to perform any number of tasks, faster and more precisely — and less expensively — than any human. Welcome to one of the pressing questions as the age of robotic workers begins to rise: Will robots take our jobs?

That question took on fresh urgency recently, when a global consulting firm released a report in March that found that more than a third of jobs in the U.S. could be automated by the early 2030s. While owners of robots could profit, lesser-skilled workers could see wages plummet, fueling a trend of growing income inequality in industrial democracies.

"What exactly will humans have to offer employers if smart machines can perform all or most of their essential tasks better in the future?" asked the study by PwC machine learning specialist Richard Berriman.

The report identified four areas where human jobs face increasing robotization — manufacturing, transportation and storage, wholesale and retail trade, and administrative support. In the Capital Region, those sectors account for about 116,000 jobs, or more than a quarter of all jobs.

And workers most at risk from automation? "Men, and in particular those with lower levels of education," Berriman wrote.

Sales of industrial robots worldwide have skyrocketed since the Great Recession of 2008, when 113,000 units were shipped, according to the 2016 annual report from the International Robotics Federation, an industry group headquartered in Germany.

Robot sales hit 166,000 units by 2011, topped 211,000 in 2014, and jumped again to 254,000 in 2015. By 2019, it is projected to hit 414,000 units.

The biggest demand for robots continues to come from China, according to the report. That means American workers competing again low-cost Chinese labor for years might now find new competition from robot-made products made there.

"There is a huge amount of discussion on this, with concerns that automation and artificial intelligence will replace human workers," said John Wen, who heads Industrial and Systems Engineering at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. "There is no question that increasing automation will change the nature of work."

The PwC report even suggested the rise of robots could force government to consider something called a "Universal Basic Income" — a payment made to people whose work has been replaced by robots, so that they can afford to continue buying products made by the robots.

In January, RPI was named as part of an industrial robotics hub supported by $250 million from the U.S. Department of Defense, with the rest coming from a 220-member coalition of industry, schools, governments and not-for-profit groups.

Headquartered in Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon University, the Advanced Robotics Manufacturing Innovation Hub will help develop and promote more affordable and safe industrial robots, particularly for small and medium-sized companies. RPI is providing about $2.5 million in support to the program in the form of faculty time, graduate school tuition and academic stipends.

Wen said the goal at RPI is to help develop robots that can "collaborate" with human counterparts, rather than replace them. He said that jobs that are repetitive, dangerous, of minimal economic value, and that can be reduced to simple steps are most at risk.

Wen said he also would encourage young people to learn robotic programming language early on, and recommended a free online program called Python as an introduction.

The robotic revolution has deep roots at RPI, which in 1989 founded its Center for Automation Technologies and Systems, or CATS. It is now among 15 state-supported innovation projects at schools across New York.

During that time, CATS has helped dozens of companies tailor existing automation technology to their needs, said center Director Daniel Walczyk, a professor of mechanical engineering. It also hosts events and competitions to expose high school and college students to the technology, he added. One such event happens every October for National Manufacturing Day.

Walczyk said robots can create new jobs as well, particularly at tasks that require more critical thinking skills. Companies like Amazon and General Motors had added robots while also expanding their human work forces, he said.

"There may be some owners that would want to replace all their workers with robots, but that is not so easy," he said. "Our philosophy is to not to displace workers, but to develop technology that can help workers work alongside robots to better compete with foreign manufacturers."

He said governments will have to find ways to provide better technical education to workers, and pointed to the German vocational training system as a model. Germany is producing science, math and technology graduates at the fastest rate of any modern industrialized country, according to an April report by the Association for Advancing Automation, a robotics industry trade group based in Ann Arbor, Mich.

Between 2003 and 2013, the number of such graduates in Germany increased by 270 percent. The U.S., by comparison, grew by 140 percent, which was also less than China (250 percent) and India (210 percent). Germany overtook Japan in the total numbers of such graduates in mid-2012.

"Is New York prepared, in terms of producing workers with higher-level skills? The answer is no," said Ken Pokalsky, a vice president with the Business Council of New York, an industry trade group based in Albany. "Our biggest challenge will be keeping pace with emerging technology and new opportunity."

bnearing@timesunion.com • 518-454-5094 • @Bnearing10