With the help of FPI’s playoff leverage calculations, we break down which teams have the most to gain and lose this week in terms of making the postseason. There may be bigger games in terms of seeding and division winners, but the teams and games highlighted below are the ones that have the biggest impact on each team’s inclusion in the playoffs.

Before digging into the numbers, it’s important to understand how the charts below should be interpreted. The charts depict each team's conditional probability of making the playoffs based on the outcome of their game this week. The entire shaded area (and accompanying percentage) is a team’s “playoff leverage,” which is defined as the difference in playoff probability given a win or a loss.

AFC

ESPN Analytics

The Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots on Sunday with the most to gain of any AFC team in Week 15. The defending champs currently have a 69 percent chance to make the playoffs. With a win, that percentage would rise to about 86 percent, but with a loss, it would drop below 50 percent. FPI gives the Broncos a 55 percent chance to win at home.

The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are tied at the top of the AFC South. If the Texans win at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, Houston's chances of winning the division jump to 72 percent. However, if they lose to the Jaguars, they will have a 38 percent chance of winning the division, and the Titans would be in the driver’s seat with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. FPI favors the Texans by 5 points and has the Titans as 6-point underdogs.

NFC

ESPN Analytics

The Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers have between a 38 percent and 47 percent chance to claim the final wild card spot in the NFC, according to FPI. Washington and Green Bay are both favored by at least 3.5 points by FPI this week, while the Bucs head to Dallas as a 7-point FPI underdog. With a win, Tampa Bay’s chances of making the playoffs will rise from 46 percent to about 77 percent. With a loss, those chances will drop to about 34 percent.

The game between the Detroit Lions and New York Giants has the largest playoff implications of any game this week. Whichever team wins will have greater than a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs, while the loser’s chances fall below 65 percent. FPI favors the Lions by 5 points at home.