The Gulf Coast will not have to be evacuated for 300 miles inland. Some towns within 5 to 15 miles of the coast may have problems if the tidal surge brings in large amounts of tar, which is the portion of the crude remaining after the light components has been evaporated (into the rain).

Some minor and lighter crude components will float, and the lightest of these, hydrocarbons of less than about 20 carbon length, will be evaporated and transported by rain. The amount of such light hydrocarbons is pretty minor compared to the amount of rain involved in a hurricane, so the resulting inland oil impact will be minor, with some sheen on ditches, maybe some accumulated layer in larger water bodies. The odor would be unpleasant, but re-evaporation and biodegradation will make short work of the oily rain components. No massive chemical cloud of death occurs, no deforestation.

Now by the time the well is eventually capped, a lot of oil will have been released. This is not good for the marine environment, but your concern that this oil will be translocated 300 miles inland by a rainstorm is unfounded. First, due to criminal behavior by BP, much of the oil has been treated with dispersant which prevents it from floating or coalescing. This oil will stay in the deep gulf for years, because normal removal mechanisms (bacterial decomposition) will not work well at low temperatures and oxygen levels.

Should this subsidence occur over a large area of the Gulf floor, a sunami of some magnitude would be created. However, such sudden subsidence events have been relatively rare, as the support zone spreads at the angle of repose of the mile or two of strata above the formation, thus gradual subsidence over a larger area is the normal response to removing the oil/gas and its formation pressure.

This formation is thought to contain some 2.5 billion barrels of oil, so loss of the well would be a serious environmental disaster, as some 25% of that volume would likely be ejected before the formation pressure fell off. But the well itself does not increase the likelihood of the formation blowing its top and creating a sunami. More likely it decreases that hazard by relieving the formation pressure. When very large fields are produced fast, some subsidence is likely, so there is a risk, after maybe most of a billion barrels have escaped, that the formation could subside substantially. The Pelly Field in Baytown sank about 30 feet (after 25 years of production) causing serious foundation, structural, and pipeline damage for 10 miles out from the field in several directions.

As to the methane bubble issue, there is a lot of methane in the formation, under pressure, but the formation pressure is not greatly higher than overburden pressure of both water and rock down to formation depth. By carrying sand towards the currently high-flow hole, the gas is creating channels in the formation which will over time increase the flow substantially, such that if the well is not capped before the sand erodes the casing to failure, it will erode a rather large, uncased, passage to the gulf floor, which will then flow for years. Other shallower wells have been lost this way in the Gulf, and they flowed for years.

The saddest thing about the BP blowout is that our government knew the hazards of drilling in the unstable formation, and they encouraged BP to hurry completion, apparently to the extent that BP cut corners, did sloppy cementing work, and in general maximized the risks in order to complete the well and make this large quantity of oil available in time for a potential loss of Middle East oil supply which was deemed likely to occur when Israel attacks Iran's nuclear installations, scheduled for sometime this summer.

Seen these claims too. We'll never know the truth or otherwise but it would be ironic if drowning in an oil slick became what saved us from a nuclear winter.

As I said, let us wait and see but my heart bleeds for Americans who are too blind to see. If I was in America, I would run for my life, though nowhere is very safe.

I also see this thing from an enemies point of view (I am thinking as one, though I’d never be an enemy of America, as America has brought about the freedom that most in the civilized and Christian nations enjoy). We know very well that Russia, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela have wanted an opportunity to attack America and cause real damage to her. Will they use this as an opportunity? Will they watch as the oil continues to gush and use a submarine to light it to burn America from one side and then enter through another to kill by whatever means and also use biological weapons?

I am no expert at what you have written on the oil gusher, but I’ve been watching, and if, like me, have read the warnings to America by Dumitru Duduman, you will wonder with me whether this is not what is going to cause America to burn. If a tsunami or a powerful tornado were to happen and the oils are pushed inland, and for some reason, a lighting strikes, I believe a lot of America will burn and this could be the oil that sets aflame America. This is no accident and I believe the finger of God is right on this one. However, let us watch how things progress before we can make any conclusions, but my heart is fearful for America.

Actually, the secondary wells are nearing completion and there is a high probability that they will be able to shut down the flow with what they call the "bottom kill." There's a chance the well head could tip over and further damage the casing below and maybe even negate the "bottom kill," but so far it looks as though the plan is working. What you're going to get is a lot of environmental damage like you're seeing and a lot of economic pain. All the stuff about death clouds and so on is paranoia. You'll probably get contaminated fish for a long time and a lot of dead sea caused by the oil settling to the bottom. This is bad enough without bringing in end-of-the-world scenarios. What is happening now is plenty bad.

Matty in Florida

30 Jun 10, 15:54