August in the NBA is a generally uneventful time period aside from the odd superstar trade and subsequent jersey burning. So with nothing else going on I want to attempt to start a discussion on the state of my favorite team, the Los Angeles Lakers. This offseason has been filled with contentious decisions, blind optimism, and hope for the future unmatched since last offseason.

I thought that after last season the Lakers were heading in the right direction. They had a budding star in D’Angelo Russell, who while not my favorite player, was putting up numbers as a 20 year old that put him in elite company. Russell’s athleticism and effort concerned me personally but despite his flaws he was able to have success under circumstances that were not conducive to a young player’s growth (Byron Scott, Kobe farewell tour, pseudo tanking). In tandem with Russell, the Lakers had a slew of young pieces around a similar age that had the potential to mature into a core that at a minimum would be competing in the playoffs. Early returns on Brandon Ingram this offseason show a much improved player that may be progressing towards the player the Lakers hoped he would become when they drafted him. Ingram’s unique skillset has him poised to be extremely successful as the NBA moves to an era of positionless basketball ™ and if his jump shot improves this season he may jump into the rising star category of players. These two alongside Julius Randle, who despite his defensive flaws and panic inducing drives to the basket generally produces positive net results on the basketball court, would make for a core that at least produces entertaining basketball. With these three and an incoming #2 overall pick the Lakers were in a favorable position moving forward the next 4-6 years assuming they could make the contracts work and let these pieces develop.

However, the Lakers as an organization are not comfortable doing a rebuild in the way that the 76ers have completely forgone success in hopes of putting together a young core for the future. The Lakers aversion to this may come from a fan base who expects nothing but the best, ownership that believes the same, or an irrational self belief in attracting big name free agents. All of these are valid reasons for foregoing the total rebuild and part of the allure of being a Lakers fan. Unfortunately, this accelerated rebuild puts the Lakers in what I see as a precarious situation. The allure of LA as a free agent destination has lost much of its luster over the past few seasons between the Kobe farewell tour, which was justified but may not have been the most prudent basketball decision, and multiple losing seasons. As a result, instead of Kevin Durant and Hassan Whiteside or Jimmy Butler and Kevin Love in 2015, the Lakers have been left picking up free agent leftovers and further perpetuating the cycle by handing out onerous contracts to underwhelming players (not naming names).

So while the Lebron James, Paul George, and Demarcus Cousins rumors circulate this season, the Lakers are left without much outside of the hope one of these big names are persuaded to join LA. I hope that this gamble does in fact pay off and that the Lakers led by Lonzo and BI get enough wins to convince superstars that their addition will be enough to be contenders. Unfortunately, the cynic in me wonders how much success a 26 win team helmed by a 20 year old rookie point guard can have in today’s ultra-competitive Western Conference. Moreover, having this be the game plan for next offseason ignores a large golden problem looming in the north. The Golden State Warriors remain unchanged, and appear prepared to continue their reign as the villains, and victors, of the NBA for at least another 2-3 years. Does a 34 year old Lebron James and an inexperienced supporting cast nearly a decade his junior give the Warriors any cause for concern, in my opinion, not really.

Best case scenario the Lakers challenge the Warriors in the WCF and sneak by thanks to Lebron heroics, netting a championship. Not a bad best case scenario. But the alternative is what causes me concern. Another strike out in free agency and the Lakers are back to hoping a young core develops, but this time without draft picks to ease the growing pains (read losing) and minus one of the core pieces that was drafted to help in a rebuild that has been now been put mostly out of the organization’s control.