He said the period the world was entering was potentially “very scary” but also provided an opportunity for positive change. But whatever happens, the effects will be felt for some time to come. “It’s not that we’re going to be feeling effects for six or 12 months and then there is a vaccine and it’s over,” Dr Tzezana said. “No, I think we will be feeling its effects for the rest of the 21st century.” He outlined a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario, with the reality likely falling somewhere in-between.

In a worst-case scenario, nations would shut themselves off from each other, not just physically, but refusing to share data, or supplies, and looking after themselves to the detriment of their neighbours. In this scenario, once the virus made it to India or Africa in a serious way there was a possibility both those regions could collapse under the weight of the humanitarian crisis, forcing a wave of refugees towards China and Europe. “It may shape how nation states see themselves, and see globalisation, and see each other,” he said. “It could spell the end for the EU, for India as a super-nation. It could even cause a loss of trust in the United States.” Dr Tzezana said he believed it would not get as bad as that, but the fact there was no strong global leader who could rally nations to a common cause meant it was also hard to avoid some of the scenario’s effects playing out.

“I will say that this does not have to be the case. We can mitigate some of those challenges,” he said. “If nations do succeed in flattening the curve of the virus, then we can send help to India, to sub-Saharan Africa, and prevent the humanitarian disaster that is brewing there, and prevent the domino storm that could happen in that worst-case scenario.” But even if the world avoided the worst effects of the pandemic in the short term, the long-term effects would still be felt, he said. How a pandemic improved a city The Spanish Flu is estimated to have killed up to 50 million people worldwide as it took hold in the tail end of the First World War.

The pandemic hitting Brisbane caused a number of changes to life in the city, speeding up innovation in some areas and changing harmful practices in others. In an effort to clean up the city to prevent the spread of disease, widespread organised rubbish collections were organised for the first time. The dumping of rubbish in Moreton Bay was halted. Loading On the social front, the city got its first open-air cinema, as a few city movie houses literally lifted their roofs off to get around restrictions on crowd numbers in enclosed spaces. Although the effect of the Spanish Flu on the city had been largely forgotten a century later in 2019, the lessons it gave to city planners and infectious disease experts have been brought to bear in the current pandemic.

In a similar way to the experience of the early 20th century pandemic, the world is experiencing the dislocation of social isolation and lockdowns, with hundreds of thousands forced to stay at home, and even work from home. Dr Tzezana said the predictions of everyone continuing to work from home once the disease threat passed was “a little unrealistic” because life would try to snap back to familiar patterns. But he said his best-case scenario for how the world would weather COVID-19 involved making sure we stayed connected with each other despite our physical separations. “I think there is a great opportunity here, because for the first time ever, mankind has a shared enemy,” he said. “As long as we keep sharing information across borders, as long as the scientific community keeps sharing information, we will beat this enemy. And I can only hope that this sharing, this unity, this sense of purpose will lead to great things.”