LONDON (Labour Buzz) - The headlines point to a comfortable Conservative majority, but scratch beneath the surface and we could be heading for one of the greatest electoral upsets.

The country goes to the polls on Thursday and, while the Conservatives are already planning the coronation, the stats suggest they might be in for a nasty shock. Indeed, the closer you look at it, the clearer the path gets to a Jeremy Corbyn Government.

Labour’s surge

Back in 2017 a number of things came together at the same time. First, the Conservatives produced a lacklustre manifesto which offered nothing for young voters or remainers and was slated by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

They’ve done exactly the same thing this time and we’re seeing the same impact in the polls. Over the past few weeks Labour has surged. Towards the end of October, they were averaging in the low 20s. Now they are up to 33%, an increase of 10 points, thanks to flocks of remain voters returning to them from the Lib Dems.

This is exactly the same level of support they had at the same point in the last campaign while the Conservatives are slightly behind where they were in 2017. Last week, almost half of remain voters said they were planning to vote Labour, up from the low 30s in the early part of the campaign.

Return of the youthquake

The youthquake which shook the 2017 election looks like it’s happening again. A record number of people registered to vote on the deadline with an overwhelming majority of them being young voters. And while 1.3million young people signing up was impressive in 2017, 2.6 million are signing up this time around.

After 2017, YouGov estimated that Labour were 47 points ahead of the Conservatives among first time voters, aged around 18 and 19. Cynics have been quick to point out that the number of older people registering to vote is also up and that they tend to veer to the right.

However, Labour has traditionally done well among those who do not often vote. Even among voters in their later years, these late sign ups may not necessarily be going the way the Conservatives expect.

Young people are angry. They understand how important this election is to their futures. The UK’s international relations are at stake, human rights are in danger and the planet is in peril. They are determined to punish the government at the polls. As this election has progressed, the proportion of younger people saying they definitely plan to vote has risen. Almost 60% of young people say they are certain to vote.

Momentum’s ground game is in full swing. The impact of this only became apparent after the 2017 election, but they are knocking on doors and targeting voters online. They are planning to spend £300k on Facebook ads for the Get out the Vote campaign alone.

If the mainstream media may be biased, the groups highly sophisticated social media campaign is getting around it, and reaching voters directly, with issues they care about.

The Youthquake is indeed on its way again and it looks like it might be even bigger than in 2017, but it’s not clear they are showing up yet in the polls. Looking at voting intention surveys, most of the gains Labour have made have come at the expense of the Lib Dems, in other words, it’s a case of existing voters switching sides.

Tactical voting

Another great unknown is exactly how far tactical voting will go. Best for Britain has said it could affect 80 seats and prevent a Conservative majority.

The scale depends on how many people vote tactically. With 30% of remain voters, the Tories would be left with 308 seats according to their projection leaving them short of a majority. If 40% of remain voters then decided to vote tactically, that majority would grow even further.

The door would be open for a number of scenarios. Labour may be able to form a coalition with the SNP and the Lib Dems. If a full coalition isn’t on the cards, they may also be able to cobble together a confidence and supply motion on certain issues covering the main opposition parties and the growing number of independent MPs. Even the DUP might support them on certain issues. They are no fans of Johnson’s deal.

Bringing together such a coalition will be difficult. Jo Swinson has said she will not support a Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn, but that might be a difficult position to hold in reality. This has been a terrible campaign for the Lib Dems. Already many of her supporters see her as a hindrance to the campaign against Brexit and if she finds herself standing in the way of a coalition once again her position will become untenable.

It would be a difficult combination of different voices and it is unlikely that Labour could push through some of its more ambitious policies, but these parties are closer than any of them would like to admit.

So, is tactical voting likely to happen? If it is, it’s unlikely to show at the polls because a number of voters are still on the fence such as Labour voter Elliot Rodgers.

“I recently became a party member of Labour,” he said. “Previously Lib Dem voter all my adult life until Tory-LibDem Coalition. Swore would never vote LibDem again but now considering tactical voting even if means voting LibDem again to get Tory Nasty Party out.”

Voters are looking at the polls, seeing results in their area and considering moving in one way or another at the last moment. 30% already say they plan to vote tactically and efforts are being made with organisations such as @swapmyvote to swap votes between Labour and Lib Dem voters in different constituencies.

Once again, it’s not clear that these votes are showing up in the polls as this Tweet demonstrates.

The undecideds

The other factor is the undecideds and these seem to be breaking for Labour. A recent poll from Ipsos Mori showed that 40% of voters may change their minds including 60% of Lib Dem voters another sign that people are wavering and considering tactical votes.

Corbyn has been doing well with these undecideds. After the ITV poll, YouGov showed him comfortably winning amongst undecideds. The snap poll after last night’s debate also held out some promise.

The figures were almost a tie, much closer than you’d expect for a party with a lead of ten points in the polls. Undecideds are still switching to the Labour Party.

Much of the Conservative vote is also weaker than they might like to think. A third of Conservative voters from 2017 supported remain and many are considering switching to the Lib Dems or independents. They’ve been urged to do so by John Major and Michael Heseltine but fear of Jeremy Corbyn is holding them back. Many will wrestle with this decision right up to the moment they step into the polling booth.

With headlines still predicting a comfortable Conservative majority, and at worst a coalition, that fear factor may not be strong, and many may make the move in the final days of the campaign. It holds out hope for the Lib Dems and for Labour. Most of the Lib Dem target seats are held by Conservatives. Tactical voting and remainer Tories could swing those seats their way.

Labour’s Brexit masterstroke?

Finally, we come to one aspect that has caused enormous angst for Labour over the past couple of years: Brexit. While the party’s decision to stay neutral antagonised many of their supporters, the signs are that this is now paying dividends.

Remainers are returning to the party, encouraged by the promise of a referendum and so are some leavers. Support for Labour among leave voters recently rose from 11% to 16%. It’s not much but with many of the swing constituencies being in Labour held leave votes this could be enough to stop Boris breaking through the red wall.

So, while the polls don’t look good and the chances of a Labour majority look pretty distant, it’s not a foregone conclusion yet. Indeed, if the brains trust at Tory HQ aren’t worried yet, they really should be, Jeremy Corbyn may yet be our Prime Minister this Christmas.

(Written by Tom Cropper, edited by Michael O'Sullivan)

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