Bengaluru: India’s food services industry will be worth Rs4.98 trillion by 2021, the National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI)’s 2016 said in a report released on Wednesday.

The size of the total market, both organized and unorganized, is Rs3.09 trillion in 2016 and the NRAI’s estimates takes into account a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

India’s food services market has grown because of various factors—a change in the way consumers spend, a widening in exposure to new cultures and cuisines, an increase in the tendency to eat out and the rising popularity of home delivery and take away.

One of the key trends ahead will be a decline in the market share of the unorganized segment from 67% in 2016 to 59% by 2021, the report added. NRAI classifies dhabhas, roadside eateries that include street stalls, hawkers, trolleys and standalone sweet shops as part of the unorganized segment.

The organized market - which includes chain outlets, organized standalone outlets and restaurants in hotels - will clock 15% CAGR. Of the organized market, standalone will account for 28% of market share by 2021 from 23% this year, chain outlets will grow to 10% from 7% and the share of restaurants in hotel will stay constant at 3%.

Quick service restaurants and affordable casual dining restaurants still account for around three-fifths of the organized segment. In terms of the number of outlets, the density is highest in metros with New Delhi and Mumbai accounting for about 22% of the food services market.

In terms of cuisines, while Indian consumers’ top three choices continue to be North Indian, Chinese and South Indian, the contribution of pizzas, American, Italian and other western cuisines is on the rise. But that doesn’t mean traditional Indian food is losing ground because regional cuisines are also gaining market share, as are bakery products and desserts.

The Indian consumer has evolved over time but their top reason to eat out remains occasions and celebrations with family and friends. Business meetings, an alternative to home cooking, and experimenting with new products and cuisines are some of the newer ones for eating out.

The total food services market is expected to have generated direct employment for 5.5-6 million people this year. That number is projected to increase to 8.5-9 million people by 2021.

Tax contributions from the industry will also, consequently, increase. The chain and standalone segments together are expected to contribute Rs22,000-22,400 crore this year and Rs42,000-45,000 crore in 2021.

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