Dillon Tate (UCSB)

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Ten Thoughts: Saturday, Feb. 14

1. DILLON TATE IS A BEAST

UC Santa Barbara coach Andrew Checketts discussed moving flame-throwing junior righthander Dillon Tate from the back of the bullpen into the rotation during the offseason, but as Opening Day approached he decided to keep Tate as the closer. Then weekend starter Dominic Mazza tweaked his ankle, so Checketts reversed course and stuck Tate into the rotation against BYU on Saturday. Scouts were delighted and flocked to Santa Barbara to see Tate, who did not disappoint in his first career start. Over 6 2/3 shutout innings, he allowed just three hits and two walks while striking out eight, helping the Gauchos sweep the doubleheader and the three-game series.

After allowing singles to two of the first three BYU hitters to put runners on the corners with one out in the first, Tate calmly extricated himself from the jam but freezing cleanup man Dillon Robinson with a backdoor slider, then threw three in a row to Dallen Reber, who flailed at all three to end the inning. From that point on, he dominated.

A physical specimen with an electrifying arm, Tate sat at 95-97 and touched 99 at his best in a relief role last summer for Team USA, and the word from scouts who were in Santa Barbara on Saturday is that he topped out at 98 and held his mid-90s velocity into the seventh inning. Combine that heat with a filthy power slider, and Tate can rival TCU’s Riley Ferrell for best pure stuff in college baseball. If he continues to thrive in a starting role, he could be a darkhorse candidate for the No. 1 overall pick.

For now, though, it appears the Gauchos will keep Tate in the weekend rotation if Checketts’ declaration in the Santa Barbara News-Press is any indication:

“That makes it impossible (to keep him as our closer),” Checketts said. “We weren’t sure going into the week. We weren’t sure whether we were going to start him … but it makes it easy now, we have to start him next week (against Kentucky).

“He didn’t throw like that in January. His stuff was good, but he didn’t pitch like that (during practices) in January. He threw, but he didn’t pitch like that, so he’ll get another start next week, and now we have to have one of (our other relievers) emerge and be good.”

2. SANTA CLARA IS DANGEROUS

Top-ranked Vanderbilt won its opening series, but it sure wasn’t easy.

A day after Carson Fulmer and Philip Pfeifer combined on a three-hit shutout, the Broncos rallied for two runs in the ninth against third-team preseason All-America closer Hayden Stone to win the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader 7-6, leveling the series. Santa Clara’s best player, the multi-talented Jose Vizcaino, was right in the middle of that rally, providing a one-out single and stealing home for the winning run. Vizcaino went 2-for-2 with four walks in the finale, and the Broncos chased a wild Tyler Ferguson (2 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 1 K) with three runs in the second to take a 4-2 lead. The game eventually went to extra innings tied 5-5 before Vandy pushed across the winning run in the 10th.

Vanderbilt fans should not overreact after a hard-fought series; they should just be happy they escaped with the victory. Stone, Ferguson and John Kilichowski all struggled, but they’ll all be fine. Vandy has plenty of reason to be very encouraged by Jordan Sheffield’s strong work in the rubber game; he allowed just one hit over 3 2/3 scoreless frames to pick up the win.

But Santa Clara sent a message that it will be a major factor in the West Coast Conference. After finishing in the WCC basement three straight years, the Broncos snuck up on the conference last year, going 16-11 in league play to finish tied for fourth. This club has a pair of starters with power arms atop the rotation in Jake Steffens and Steven Wilson, plus a power-armed closer in Reece Karalus, who picked up the win in the first game Saturday but took the loss in the second game. And Santa Clara showed offensive maturity by drawing 17 walks in Saturday’s two games against the nation’s most talented pitching staff. The Broncos won’t be able to sneak up on anybody this year, because the rest of the WCC must see them coming.

3. VIRGINIA MIGHT HAVE THE NATION’S BEST PITCHING STAFF

OK, we already knew the Cavaliers were among college baseball’s best pitching clubs, so this isn’t a huge leap. Ace Nathan Kirby was dominant on Friday, as usual, and Virginia allowed just two runs in each half of a doubleheader sweep Saturday at East Carolina to finish the weekend with five runs allowed in three games.

East Carolina isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, but UVa. should still be excited about sophomore righthander Connor Jones’ season debut. A premium talent who had a good year in the bullpen last year before faltering in the postseason, Jones needed to take a step forward and hold down a weekend starter job this spring for the Cavs to reach their potential. The early returns were outstanding: He allowed just an unearned run on three hits and a walk while striking out eight over six innings to earn the win in the doubleheader opener. Kevin Doherty followed with two hitless innings of relief, part of a Virginia bullpen that yielded just two hits over eight combined innings Saturday. Brandon Waddell (4 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K) wasn’t his best in the finale, but the bullpen picked him up, as Jack Roberts (4 IP, 1 H, 0 R) was stellar, and Josh Sborz worked a perfect ninth for his second save. How Jones took to the rotation and how Sborz adjusted to the closer role were two huge keys for the Cavaliers heading into the season. We obviously believed both would thrive, or we wouldn’t have ranked them third in our preseason Top 25. But it’s still encouraging to see them get off to good starts.

4. ROGERS MUST WANT TO TAKE BACK HIS TAKE-BACK

In yesterday’s Ten Thoughts, Kendall Rogers lamented his decision to change his Week One upset pick. All offseason, he talked up College of Charleston and predicted the Cougars would take their opening series at South Carolina—but he changed his mind and went with the Gamecocks after CofC ace Bailey Ober was scratched for the series. He regretted that flip-flop after Charleston won the series opener Friday.

Well, the Gamecocks responded by sweeping Saturday’s doubleheader to win the marquee series after all. South Carolina has a nice luxury with a pair of Friday-caliber starters atop its rotation in Jack Wynkoop (who struggled in Friday’s loss) and Wil Crowe (who owns the best arm on the staff). Crowe picked up the Gamecocks with a sterling effort in the doubleheader opener, striking out 10 and allowing just one run over 6 1/3 innings in South Carolina’s 7-1 win. Kyle Martin had two hits and two RBIs to lead the South Carolina offense in that one, then contributed two more hits in the finale as part of a balanced 11-hit attack.

Coming into the season, Chad Holbrook raved about freshman Alex Destino’s ability to bring power to the middle of his lineup immediately, and Destino delivered a big two-run homer to break a 3-3 tie in the sixth inning, leading the Gamecocks to an 8-3 win. Josh Reagan (5.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K), a lefthander with advanced pitchability like Wynkoop, gave South Carolina a solid start, and hard-throwing righty Taylor Widener (2.2 IP, 0 H, 3 BB, 6 K) showed that he is well suited for the closer role by picking up his first save.

5. TROUBLE FOR TEXAS

After winning a sloppy opener against Rice on Friday, No. 10 Texas was swept in Saturday’s doubleheader, 10-9 and 5-2, to fall behind in the four-game series two games to one. The two games exposed a significant concern about the Longhorns: is their starting pitching really that good without Morgan Cooper (who had Tommy John surgery) in the mix? Kacy Clemens (3 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 2 BB) was rocked in the first game of the twin bill, and Josh Sawyer (4.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER) struggled in the second game—and neither showed particularly good stuff, according to Rogers and our Dustin McComas, who were on hand. Credit Rice’s offense, which appears to be very good and extremely athletic. But also discredit UT’s pitching, which looks awfully shaky at this early point in the season.

6. TROUBLE FOR TITANS

Cal State Fullerton’s problems are even more concerning than Texas’. The Titans will pitch—there’s no doubt about that. They pitched at an elite level last year, but they still struggled through a difficult season because their offense was meager. The two most dangerous hitters from that offense, J.D. Davis and Matt Chapman, are gone, and this year’s lineup is physically underwhelming. Tanner Pinkston brings physical presence to the lineup, but he was benched Saturday after going 0-for-4 in Friday’s opener at South Florida. This lineup is filled with smallish grinders who simply need to grind, and so far their offensive approach has been atrocious. The Titans struck out 15 times in Friday’s loss, chasing far too many sliders, and they fanned 12 more times in Saturday’s loss to Alabama State. It doesn’t matter if you give up two or three runs per game if you can’t score a lick. It’s obviously way too early to push the panic button, but we were worried about the Fullerton offense before the season even started (we rated the team’s hitting a 45 and the power a 35 on the 20-80 scale in our Top 25 breakdowns). Those concerns have only been exacerbated after two games.

With all that said, Fullerton rallied down the stretch last year, and Rick Vanderhook has a long track record of instilling toughness in his teams and getting them to buy into a disciplined offensive approach. It will probably take some time for him to get the most out of this lineup, which is crammed with newcomers, but it would be foolish to dismiss his chances to mold this unit into a serviceable offense. It won’t get any easier Sunday against Louisville, which has a quality No. 3 starter in Josh Rogers and a deep, rested bullpen thanks to Drew Harrington’s long relief stint Saturday.

7. DAVE SERRANO WAS RIGHT ABOUT DRAKE OWENBY

Tennessee coach Dave Serrano raved about lefthander Drake Owenby’s improved conditioning, stuff and maturity heading into the season and predicted he was ready to become a key piece of the weekend rotation. Owenby was as good as advertised Saturday, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out seven over six shutout innings to lead the Volunteers to a series-tying 9-2 win at Florida International. Hunter Martin, who did not have a good fall, came out of the bullpen with three solid innings of work to pick up the save. The Vols also got two RBIs apiece from two key bats whom they are counting on to put up much better numbers than they did a year ago: Vincent Jackson and Nathaniel Maggio.

8. OREGON STATE’S NEW FACES DELIVER

After losing most of the key pieces from last year’s Pac-12 title team, Oregon State is counting on its stellar group of freshmen and junior-college transfers to hit the ground running this spring. So far, so good. A day after veteran ace Andrew Moore struck out nine and allowed just one run in seven strong innings to beat Northwestern, JC transfer Travis Eckert yielded just one run on five hits over six strong innings against a good Michigan State offense, and the Beavers won 4-3 in 10 innings. OSU was thrilled with Eckert’s development over the summer and fall, and the coaches describe him as a “strike-thrower with sneaky upside” and a good four-pitch mix. Freshman first baseman K.J. Harrison has stepped right into the No. 3 hole in the lineup vacated by superstar Michael Conforto, and he delivered two hits and an RBI Saturday, while sophomore Billy King (another new starter) had two hits behind him in the cleanup spot. Another newcomers, sophomore JC transfer Kyle Nobach, provided a walk-off RBI single up the middle in the 10th.

9. LONG BEACH STATE’S NEW FACES DELIVER, TOO

Like the Beavers, Long Beach State experienced massive roster turnover after last year’s run to regionals, leading to lowered expectations for the 2015 Dirtbags. Meanwhile, Michigan boasts an experienced roster and headed into the season as a strong postseason contender. But the Dirtbags clinched the series against the Wolverines with a 7-2 win Saturday behind junior-college transfers Tanner Brown (6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K) and Ryan Cruz (3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER). The Long Beach offense racked up 11 hits behind them, with another juco transfer providing a major spark out of the leadoff spot—Jared James went 2-for-3 with three runs and two walks. Michigan will be much better as the weather warms up, but the Wolverines were bad Saturday, committing as many errors (four) as they had hits.

10. ALL-FITT TEAM WATCH LIST: RICK NOMURA

After what I saw Saturday in Clearwater, I think it’s pretty unlikely that any player will unseat Alabama State’s 5-foot-5 dynamo Einar Muniz for the second-base spot on the 2015 All-Fitt team, which recognizes my favorite players to cover at the end of every season. I have a well-known soft spot for undersized players, so second base (where they usually stick the short guys) is always a heated competition.

Arkansas second baseman Rick Nomura could make a real run at Muniz before the season is out. A Hawaiian who played last year at Alvin (Texas) JC, Nomura was responsible for one of opening weekend’s most exciting moments Saturday during a doubleheader sweep of North Dakota. Listen as the SEC Network broadcaster says, “Like to see him run—he can run like a deer,” during the windup of this pitch. Then watch Nomura race around the basepaths for an inside-the-park home run. He scores despite stumbling after rounding third base (it helped that the catcher couldn’t corral the relay throw).

Arkansas recruiting coordinator Tony Vitello told me in the fall that the 5-foot-9 Nomura had a chance to provide a real spark.

“He’s a little guy, and he has been pretty damn good,” Vitello said in the fall. “A switch-hitter, finds ways to do things that are pretty positive. Our guys compare him to (Nori) Aoki with the Royals. He can play second or third, can bunt, got a leg kick going. He’s a fun kid to watch, a ton of energy.”