THE federal-government shutdown that started this morning is the result of a factional fight among Republicans in the House of Representatives, pitting an ultraconservative tea-party minority against a merely very conservative majority. As Michael Gerson, a former speechwriter for George W. Bush, puts it, "We are no longer seeing a revolt against the Republican leadership, or even against the Republican 'establishment'; this revolt is against anyone who accepts the constraints of political reality." Like other extremist movements, he notes, the tea-party faction spends more of its energy fighting other conservative Republicans than it does fighting Democrats, since rivals are more of a threat than enemies. The political dynamics of the shutdown will thus play out on two different fields: that of Republican voters, and that of American voters in general. The two groups are likely to respond differently, and that means we're in for a very rocky year. Pollsso farare suggesting that the general public will blame Republicans for the shutdown. It's not clear how far such disapproval can move the needle on overall disapproval of congressional Republicans, though. Republicans in Congress already have a -44% unfavourable rating (68% unfavourable to 24% favourable), according to TPM's Polltracker average of polls, and it's been in roughly similar territory since mid-2011. Those numbers are clearly not bad enough to affect Republican behaviour, and they were good enough to allow them to retain the House in last year's elections. Congressional Democrats are much better off than Republicans, but they still have a -24% rating (59% to 35%), and even if the public does blame the GOP for the current impasse, it seems unlikely that this will lead to better ratings for Democrats. Things have in fact been moving in the opposite direction: Polltracker's congressional generic-ballot poll average, which Democrats had led since last year's elections, is now about even for the two parties, not because Republicans have improved—they have spent the entire period hovering at 38%—but because Democrats have dropped to meet them.

Meanwhile, we can safely assume that the 24% of Americans who do still approve of congressional Republicans are almost all Republicans themselves. (Twenty-two percent of Americans currently identify as Republicans, according to Gallup, against 31% who identify as Democrats.) And among Republican voters, the government shutdown is likely to make their congressmen more popular, not less. Tea-party organisations are blaming the shutdown on intransigence—Democratic intransigence. Heck, Erick Erickson is still denouncing House Republicans for failing to "stand your ground", because the final version of a continuing resolution they sent to the Senate no longer demands the complete defunding of Obamacare.

There is no equivalent on the moderate-Republican side to the organisational muscle and rhetorical elan that propels the party's tea-party wing. No one is lining up to back moderate primary challengers to tea-party candidates. Establishment figures from previous Republican administrations who have found themselves transformed into voices of caution and moderation, such as Mr Gerson, most of the writers at National Review Online, and even (mutatis mutandi) Karl Rove, appear to have little ability to affect the party's course anymore. As someone once said of Mikhail Gorbachev after he had lost control of the Soviet Communist Party, they are "moving the levers, but they aren't attached to anything."

In other words, it's hard to see what political force could lead the Republicans' ascendant tea-party wing to change its behaviour and agree to any deal with the Democratic Senate, be it passing a clean continuing resolution funding the government at current levels or, as we move towards October 17th, raising the federal debt ceiling. It just isn't clear what's in it for them. So far, a scorched-earth strategy of total resistance has won them victory after victory, within the party at least. Why mess with a winning formula?

The upshot is that even if the broad public does blame Republicans for the shutdown, there's little reason to believe that this will force the GOP to do anything about it. It is possible, though unlikely, that anger over the government shutdown and the rest of this autumn's confrontations could affect public attitudes enough to shift the congressional vote and give the Democrats a majority in the House after the 2014 elections. RealClearPolitics' poll average still gives Democrats a 4% advantage on the generic congressional vote, and that could certainly widen. But the elections are a long way off. Recent history suggests that during the campaign, Republicans are likely to become more intransigent in Congress, not less, to safeguard against primary challenges. In sum, unless GOP party discipline somehow cracks, America is probably in for a pretty lousy political year.

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