New vehicle sales remained on the skids across greater Houston last month and the local market's most prominent observer has now slashed his forecast for the year as low oil prices and associated layoffs appear to have put consumers in a cautious mood.

"I think perception, in many cases, is more important than reality," said Steve McDowell, owner of Sugar Land-based InfoNation, publisher of TexAuto Facts. "When you're looking for a big-ticket item, people will say, 'Ah, I'll wait until next year.'"

Sales in the nine-county region plunged 38 percent in July, the fifth consecutive month when sales lagged the comparable period in record-setting 2015. Sales are down 22 percent year to date, TexAuto Facts reports.

Items that require multiyear commitments from buyers can be affected by a number of variables. But Jesse Thompson, business economist with the Houston branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said the enormous energy losses in Houston undeniably contributed to the decline in auto purchases.

"We've lost one in five of all the jobs tied to energy in this city since the bust began and you can only lose that for so long before it starts to take its toll," Thompson said.

More Information Falling numbers 38 percent: Amount Houston-area auto sales dropped in July. 22 percent: Amount sales are down in the Houston area for the year. $34,659: Average retail price for a new vehicle in July, a 12-month low.

Read More

InfoNation cited sluggish consumer confidence when it lowered its projection for 2016 to between 290,000 to 300,000 new vehicles, down from its January estimate of 357,000. Last year, 376,481 vehicles were sold locally.

Overall in July, there were 22,145 new vehicles sold in the Houston region, down 38.1 percent from the same period a year earlier.

The average retail sales price for new vehicles in the area, considered a barometer of how much pressure sellers face to move their inventory, hit a 12-month low of $34,659 in July, likely a result of increased incentives to entice buyers.

Houston-based Group 1 Automotive, the Fortune 500 international retailer, recently reported that sales in oil-dependent markets continue to struggle.

Group 1 said Houston sales dipped 6 to 7 percent during its second quarter, which ended in June.

Even with 2016 numbers down for the year, sales activity continues to top some of the years leading up to the recent record-setters, said Virgil Skinner, Houston Auto Dealers Association chairman and owner of Fort Bend Kia in Rosenberg.

Skinner pointed to different impacts in different parts of the metro area. TexAuto Facts data show total new vehicle sales for the year are down 27 percent in Harris County, but down only 2 percent in the surrounding counties.

At Helfman Dodge Chrysler Jeep Ram Fiat, along the Katy Freeway at Silber Road, general manager Steven Wolf said sales are actually up, driven in part by the presale of 45 new Maserati SUVs.

Skinner said it's clear that energy woes are causing distress, but he remains optimistic that "the diversity of Houston's economy is enough to support it." He also speculated that a large number of buyers who needed new vehicles likely were part of the sustained surge coming out of the recession.

"In 2014 and 2015, we satisfied a lot of that pent-up demand and now we're just settling in with more realistic volumes moving forward," Skinner said.

It's a buyer's market now, he added: Banks are lending, dealers have plenty of inventory and manufacturers are making pricing and incentives more attractive.

New to Houston with a new job, Maya Tyler on Monday said she is ready to trade in her 2012 Chevy Malibu LT, but she's not ready to splurge on something brand new.

"I want one, but I'm working up to it," said Tyler, 27, checking out a Dodge Challenger at Helfman's used-car lot with salesman Randy Lilly.

Buyers of new vehicles continue to show a preference for trucks and SUVs, according to TexAuto Facts. That segment accounted for 65 percent of new vehicles sold through dealerships in July. For the year, car sales trail 2015 by 30 percent and truck and SUV sales are down 16 percent

Nationwide, July new vehicle sales rose 0.5 percent to slightly more than 1.5 million vehicles.