Crude oil jumps 6% as Libya protests spread

Crude oil prices jumped 6% Monday as violent protests spread in Libya, raising the possibility that oil supplies from that OPEC nation could be disrupted.

Oil consuming nations have emergency reserves they can use to stabilize markets in case the violence in Libya or elsewhere in the Middle East escalates and crimps production, officials said Monday.

But international executives and analysts meeting in London were nervously watching developments in the oil-rich region, worried about the sharp shock political unrest is giving to crude oil prices.

Oil prices jumped Monday because of the turmoil in Libya, where Moammar Gadhafi's son, Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, warned protesters Sunday that they risk igniting a civil war in which Libya's oil wealth "will be burned."

By afternoon in Europe, light, sweet crude for March delivery was up $5.05 to $91.25 for a 42-gallon barrel. The April contract was up more than $5 to $94.84. A barrel is 42 gallons.

U.S. markets, including Nymex floor trading, were closed Monday for the Presidents' Day holiday.

Libya alone exports at least 1 million barrels of crude a day. Even more worrying for markets is the potential spread of political violence to other countries in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — key exporters Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are considered potential flashpoints.

David Fyfe, head of the oil industry and markets division at the International Energy Agency, stressed that IEA member countries reserves of 1.6 billion barrels of oil — equivalent to some 4 million barrels a day for 12 months — that could be brought onto the market if necessary. The IEA's 28 members are mainly oil consuming industrial nations such as the United States, Japan, Britain and Germany.

The IEA has used government oil supplies to steady the oil market twice before, during the Gulf War in 1991 and after Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

"It's very much a last resort, but it's worth pointing out that it exists and has been used before, when supplies have been disrupted," he said.

"It's a sort of insurance policy for the market. Our view is that it isn't something that should be used for price management," he said.

Fyfe said the situation in the Middle East and North Africa is "of real concern," noting that the region accounts for 60% of global oil resources and 40% of global natural gas resources.

"Compared to Tunisia (a minor crude exporter) or Egypt (not an exporter but a transit country), instability in Libya is a major concern to the oil industry," said analysts at JBC Energy in Vienna.

David Buik, markets analyst at BGC Partners in London, noted that Seif al-Islam Gadhafi's comments that there would be "rivers of blood" in Libya also prompted a surge in gold prices to just above $1,400 an ounce.

"There was a feeling by unsettled investors of a need to take yet another flight to quality," he said.

BP has suspended operations in Libya and is evacuating about 40 expatriate staff and their families because of the escalating violence — halting operations in the North African country just four years after the British company returned from a 30-year hiatus.

"Events in the Middle East are of intense concern as they continue to evolve," Ian Smale, group head of strategy and policy at BP, said at International Petroleum Week, a key event on the oil industry's calendar.

"With specific regard to Libya, our first concern is our people and the security and integrity of our operations," Smale said at the Energy Institute-sponsored conference in central London.

Smale said Libya is not a major operating base for BP, but did not respond to questions about BP's partnerships with state-owned entities in the Middle East and North Africa.

BP signed a deal worth at least $900 million in 2007 to explore in Libya. It said it would monitor the situation on a daily basis and could not confirm when work would start again, but stressed that offshore operations in the region were still open and the closure would not affect oil production.

Italy's Eni gas and oil company said it was evacuating nonessential personnel and family of expatriate workers in Libya "as already scheduled following the early closure of schools in the country."

"At the moment, no problems at plants and operational facilities have been reported. The company's production continues as normal, with no effects on operations," Eni said, adding that it is reinforcing security measures for remaining employees and plants.

Royal Dutch Shell, whose operations in Libya are limited to exploration, said it has temporarily relocated dependents of expat staff out of the country.

In the United States, ConocoPhillips spokesman John McLemore said the company is monitoring the situation but had no comment on the security of its workers there. ConocoPhillips has a joint interest in a oil drilling operation in Libya with Marathon Oil and Libya's state-run oil company,

ExxonMobil, which has licenses for offshore drilling near Libya but no active drilling, said it did not discuss security matters. Occidental Petroleum, the first U.S. company to resume operations in Libya when the U.S. government lifted sanctions against the country in 2004, did not immediately return a call seeking comment. Last year, Occidental produced 13,000 barrels of oil, gas and liquids per day in Libya.

Current unrest aside, Fyfe said oil demand growth should slow this year to around 1.5 million barrels per day, down from 2.8 million barrels last year. He said there were a number of differences between now and the shortages and historic price rises that characterized 2008, including more spare capacity, more OPEC production and slowing oil growth after the post-recessionary bubble that year.

"The concerns in the market go beyond Libya," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "It's unlikely we're going to see any meaningful disruption of oil from the Middle East or North Africa, but the spread of this unrest has raised anxieties."

Some analysts are worried higher oil prices will undermine a fragile economic recovery in developed countries. For every $1 increase in the price of a gallon of gasoline, U.S. consumer spending falls about $120 billion, said Gerard Minack, an economist with Morgan Stanley.

"Energy is more important for developed-world consumers than food," Minack said. "This is why further sharp rises in oil prices, if they occur, would be likely to be seen as a threat to growth."

In other Nymex trading in March contracts, heating oil and gasoline both rose.

Contributing: Alex Kennedy in Singapore

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