Tech’s death in this case is really a sign of two different kinds of success. First, tech died by conquering the world. Netflix is leading a global transition from linear to streaming television. Tesla accelerated an electric awakening among auto companies. But if Netflix and Walt Disney both use technology to stream video, why is only Netflix trading at infinity-times earnings? And if Tesla and BMW “both use battery technology to power luxury cars,” Deluard writes, “why should the former trade at 42 times forward earnings when the latter fetches 5.6 times trailing earnings?” Good question.

Second, some of the largest tech companies have exhausted their main markets. Apple and Samsung may have reached the smartphone plateau, as phone sales seem to have peaked. Facebook and Google have grown to dominate digital advertising. But in the U.S., overall ad spending has historically averaged no more than 3 percent of GDP. How do you grow forever in a sector that isn’t growing? That’s easy: You don’t. There may be a Malthusian trap in the attention economy. Eventually, revenue growth bumps up against the natural limitations of population and waking hours.

But here’s another interpretation of the past 12 months in tech: Perhaps it’s not the end of tech, or even the beginning of the end. It’s “the end of the beginning,” says Benedict Evans, a partner at Andreessen Horowitz.

In the first era, tech companies mostly solved media problems. Need a hardware platform for media consumption? Apple and Samsung did it, with several billion smartphone sales. Need a software portal for the world’s information? Google did it. Need a global village to talk about the world’s media? Facebook did it. Monopolize media consumption in the world’s largest country? Tencent did it.

Read: When the tech mythology collapses

Software ate media, and media went down pretty smoothly. Now it has to gnaw through the harder, crunchier parts of the global economy. Software eating life sciences? Software eating elderly care? Software eating household construction? Software eating money? Good luck.

Look closer at one big sector where tech companies have already started chewing: e-commerce. Online shopping is a $500 billion industry in the U.S., which sounds like quite a lot. But really, it’s no more than Americans spend each year at gas stations. Yep, gas stations.

E-commerce started with the easy stuff. The OG Amazon model sold books, which are among the world’s most reliable, durable units. When you buy Lolita on Amazon, you’re not worried that it will arrive missing the first page, or smelling like fish, or saying “by Dan Brown” on the cover. But with its Whole Foods acquisition, Amazon expanded into groceries, like fruit and meat, which can spoil, sour, and squish in transit. This is a much harder problem. Before millions of people will trust Amazon to deliver with equal reliability hardcovers and heirloom tomatoes, the company will have to invest more money in more warehouses and more transportation equipment.