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Ron Francis doesn’t seem worried. The Carolina Hurricanes’ GM has fielded questions about his blue line for much of the offseason.

Luke Decock of The News Observer writes:

On defense, even if first-round draft pick Noah Hanifin starts the season in the NHL, the Hurricanes have only four other NHL defensemen – Justin Faulk, Ron Hainsey, James Wisniewski and John-Michael Liles. They’ll give younger players like Michal Jordan and Ryan Murphy a chance, but that group cries out for a little veteran help, although Francis wouldn’t commit to any additions.

Decock’s quick scan of Carolina’s NHL-caliber defensemen helps to explain the media focus. The Hurricanes are set to deploy a mixed bag on defense. Justin Faulk is a rising star, but the rest of the blue line is uncertain. James Wisniewski (a scratch in Anaheim during last season’s playoffs), John-Michael Liles (a Toronto Maple Leafs castoff) and Ron Hainsey (34-years-old) are all shaky options.

At first glance, this isn’t a group that inspires a ton of confidence, but Ron Francis has suggested that the situation isn’t so bleak and that the ‘Canes may simply fill their blueline need from within:

I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing to have a spot open going into camp… It sends a good message to our younger guys.

What can we make of the Hurricanes’ blue line? And is there a chance that Noah Hanifin could be an NHL fit this season?

Sure, only 4 Hurricanes defensemen have played 100 games or more at the NHL level. Some have referred to this as a question mark. But some advanced stats suggest that this group may be stronger than imagined.

Justin Faulk (#1)

Faulk has emerged as a top-pair defender.

He managed 49 points in 82 games last season, averaging about 24 minutes of time-on-ice per game. He fired a blistering 238 shots on net as well. He’s known as a tremendous skater, is detail-oriented and safe with the puck and has a knack for creating offense from the blue line. At 23-years-old, Faulk is just beginning a very promising career as the anchor of the ‘Canes’ defense.

Faulk’s individual production is borderline top-pair quality. His rate stats carry a lot of weight based on the amount of ice time he logged. Faulk’s impact on his teammates in terms of possession and goals are both excellent. The young defender isn’t as steady defensively yet. His Corsi Against per 60 isn’t strong and his linemate goals against impact was very rough.

Still, Faulk is part of the answer in Carolina. This is a young, steady defender who can be expected to grow as he develops in the NHL.

James Wisniewski (#2)

Cast aside after losing Bruce Boudreau’s confidence in Anaheim last season, the knocks against Wisniewski are clear.

He’s generally seen as an undisciplined player and has struggled to remain healthy throughout his career. But scouting reports credit the 31-year-old as a capable offensive blueliner who can reliably quarterback a power play, owns a big shot, and is a reliable point producer as evidenced by his 0.5 points per game career average.

Wisniewski’s underlying stats reveal his general usefulness. Playing mostly bottom-four minutes over the past three seasons, Wisniewski’s primary assists and points are top-pair worthy.

His Corsi impact is strong both in generating shots for his team and suppressing shots against. If Wisniewski isn’t exposed to a major increase in ice time (which is possible) and stays healthy (which is less possible) he could surprise as a key cog for the Hurricanes. Even with too much ice time and some time lost to injury, Wisniewski is still a reasonable fit in any team’s top-four.

John-Michael Liles (#3)

After seven straight seasons with 30 or more points as a key member of the Colorado Avalanche, Liles’ stay in Toronto did little to bolster his image. In his third season with the Maple Leafs, Liles spent more time with Toronto’s AHL team (16 games) than in the NHL (6 games) before being dealt to Carolina.

Liles suffered a concussion and was eventually forced to play in the minors because of his onerous contract and ex-coach Randy Carlyle’s disdain for Liles’ lack of toughness.

While there’s little physicality to his game, JM Liles still has value for the Canes. He continues to be a confident puck-mover, is blessed with speed despite his advancing age and has a good deal of experience managing a power play.

Despite the implication that Liles is a poor defender because of lacking physicality, his advanced stats show that he is an expert contributor to shot and goal suppression (both rated as top-pair quality in his HERO chart). His offensive contributions have slowed to bottom-pair levels but Liles appears to have enough left in his legs to hold down the last spot in the Hurricanes’ top-four for one more season.

With Faulk, Wisniewski and Liles in place as this team’s top three, the underrated group is capable of possessing the puck and contributing to the offense in Carolina.

Ron Hainsey (#6)

This is where the complications start.

With Hainsey, there isn’t much to see. Faulk scored more points last year (49) than Hainsey has in his past four seasons combined (48). Despite his 6’3″ frame, Hainsey has long preferred to employ a softer style and has been plagued by inconsistent play.

He can man either side on defense and remains mobile with good reach.

Hainsey has been asked to do too much in Carolina, handling top-pair minutes due to a lack of options. All is not lost here. Re-deployed as the team’s sixth defenseman, Hainsey is competent. His production and teammate impact all rank as bottom-pair to top-four quality.

If Hainsey is asked to do less for the ‘Canes, he can still provide some valuable minutes. With his experience, and at his reasonable $2.83 million salary, the team would be wise to retain — but ask less of — Hainsey.

Sorting Out the Fourth and Fifth Spots

The situation isn’t as bleak as it seems. The Hurricanes really lack a fourth and fifth defenseman — a situation many NHL teams find themselves in.

But while some teams are scouring the market for depth defenseman options (think Jan Hejda, Andrej Meszaros, Bryce Salvador, or even former-Cane Brett Bellemore), the Hurricanes have in-house solutions.

Expect 22-year-old Ryan Murphy to move into a full-time role with the Canes this season. He profiles as a fast skater who handles checking pressure well and is a budding power play quarterback. In 89 NHL games over the past three years, Murphy has mustered 25 points playing approximately 18 minutes per game.

There are hints that he is capable of much more.

Low time-on-ice is always worth noting as a caution. It often means that a player hasn’t earned the coach’s trust. Extrapolated per 60 stats for players with limited minutes can be misleading. In Murphy’s case, as a developing young defenseman with good pedigree, it’s likely that additional minutes will mean greater counting stats.

He’s produced excellent primary assist and primary point totals per 60 minutes and has been bottom-pairing quality in linemate Corsi and goals impact. It’s perfectly reasonable to assume that Murphy can handle 5th defender minutes next year.

Then, there’s Hanifin.

The Boston College product already has reasonable size — 6’3″ and 205 lbs — though he isn’t physically imposing on the ice. Instead, Hanifin relies primarily on his elite skating to power his game.

Is that enough to crack the Canes’ lineup and fill the fourth or fifth defense slot?

Speaking with Fluto Shinzawa of The Boston Globe, GM Ron Francis was open to the idea:

If he’s ready to play, he’ll be in our lineup come October…If he needs more time, we’ll do what we have to do to help in that regard, as well. We want what’s right for Noah.

Francis isn’t declaring that the job is Hanifin’s to lose. But based on the team’s willingness to save roster spots to promote from within, Hanifin stands a chance. With the success of Aaron Ekblad as a first-year defenseman (and Calder winner) last season, teams may be more willing to give young blueliners a look.

Shinzawa’s article adds a little more fuel to the Hanifin flame. Speaking to Shinzawa, Adam Nicholas (Hanifin’s offseason skating coach) said:

His skating ability is above par in the NHL as it is…His skating is there to play at that [NHL] level now. That’s how great a skater he is.

Shinzawa goes on to speculate that Hanifin already possesses the skills that are valued for modern NHL defensemen; speed, quickness, brains, strength, and aggression. He adds:

When Hanifin makes a mistake, he corrects it so quickly that any opportunity an attacker might have had goes away before it mushrooms into trouble.

Shinzawa isn’t alone. Speaking prior to the NHL Draft, Scott Wheeler of Pension Plan Puppets wrote:

If the Leafs, or any other team walks away with Hanifin post-Eichel in this year’s draft, they’re drafting a potential first pairing defensemen who is near-NHL-ready, if not NHL-ready.

The key here is “NHL-ready.” If Hanifin is as close as Shinzawa and Wheeler speculate, he could fill the only remaining gap in the Hurricanes’ top-six for this season.

Despite speculation that Carolina needs to add a top-six defender or two to fill out their defense corps, Francis’ faith in his group seems justified.

Faulk, Wisniewski, and Liles are a reasonable top-three. Hainsey is still capable of holding on to the sixth defender role. If Ryan Murphy steps into the fourth or fifth defenseman role (a role he’s ready to handle) and if Hanifin claims an NHL job, the Canes are set on defense. While a spare defenseman may be needed (either an AHL call-up or a free agent signed on a PTO out of training camp) the team’s blue line is ready to begin 2015-16.

What do you think, Hurricanes fans? Do the Canes need to add another defenseman with NHL experience or do you have faith in the current top-six for next season?