The bond market is also looking optimistic about the future, with prices suggesting that continued growth — without inflationary overheating — is the most likely future.

The stock market has lost ground since the start of the year, thanks to the sharp sell-off Monday. But the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is up in that span, from 2.4 percent to 2.8 percent at Tuesday’s close. That suggests bond investors think that continued steady recovery will allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates gradually.

Bond investors are pricing in higher inflation than the United States has experienced in recent years, but roughly in line with the 2 percent the Federal Reserve aims for. Prices for inflation-protected bonds imply 2.09 percent annual inflation over the coming decade, up from 1.98 percent at the start of the year.

Other market indicators that might signal global economic troubles, like the price of oil, instead point to a steady-as-she-goes global economy.

None of this makes a case for economic complacency. There are plenty of things that could go wrong in the world, from conflict on the Korean Peninsula or in the Middle East to destructive trade wars. But if the stock market was actually giving us any insight into the likelihood of those outcomes, we would expect to see moves in bond and commodity markets that just aren’t happening.

Think of it this way. The economy is like a horse race — and what we really care about is which horse wins, places or shows. The bond market is the equivalent of the people betting directly on the race. And while of course gamblers get it wrong sometimes, the market is efficient enough that there’s a fairly direct relationship between the odds a horse pays and its probability of victory.

The stock market, by contrast, is like a weird side game in which people bet one another on which gambler is going to have the best day. It’s erratic, volatile and a couple of degrees removed from the underlying horse race on which it is all based.

And that’s why the best way to make sense of the drop in the stock market is to think of it as a sideshow to the broader trajectory of the United States and global economy, which for now look perfectly fine.