In the first weeks of the Democratic primaries, Bernie Sanders was the only candidate to win big. And to win repeatedly.

We won the popular vote in Iowa, we won the New Hampshire primary, and according to three networks and the A.P., we have now won the Nevada caucus! [CHEERING]

In Nevada, he did it through sheer popularity by proving he’d built a coalition, one made up of union workers, people with college degrees and Hispanic voters. In Iowa and New Hampshire, he did it by narrowly beating out his moderate rivals who split the majority of the vote, with the leading moderate candidate, Joe Biden, losing support and stumbling badly.

The only gas that powers a candidate to the nomination is these delegates, and Sanders now has 43 of them. That’s more than his closest rival Pete Buttigieg at 26. And now you can see Sanders also has more than triple the number of delegates of most other people in this race.

Down-ballot Democrats are very worried about Bernie ending up at the top of the ballot, but there’s speculation that the rest of the folks — the moderates and others — can’t get it together, and they can’t stop Bernie.

— and the only one who could walk away from Super Tuesday, today, as the likely Democratic nominee.

Just days ago, the press and the pundits had declared this candidacy dead. Now, thanks to all of you, the heart of the Democratic Party, we just won and we’ve won big because of you.

— Joe Biden offered a vision of a different coalition, this one made up of black voters, older voters and suburbanites.

Joe Biden lapped the field with 48 percent of the vote, winning every single county in the state, crushing Bernie Sanders by more than a 2-1 margin, with everyone else trailing badly. Biden’s big win helped him close the delegate gap considerably with Sanders. It’s very close.

Despite Biden’s big night, the confetti could stop for him on Super Tuesday, as Sanders is much better organized and positioned to take a potentially commanding delegate lead.

And so the question now is, will Sanders sweep? Or, will the moderate wing of the party coalesce around Biden, and will the voters who had left him come back in time for Super Tuesday? It’s Tuesday, March 3.

No one’s ever going to invite me to their home after hearing this. [LAUGHS] They’ve still got a Christmas tree.

So this house right behind us — four beds, three baths, 2,600 square feet. Estimated price: $1.3 million.

You would not be the first New Yorker to do that.

To look up how much these homes sell for?

We are on a residential street in Arlington, Virginia. It’s a quite lovely neighborhood of colonial houses. I think it’s safe to say well-off. An affluent suburban community.

Of course, of course. Nice to meet you.

So on Sunday night I went with my colleagues Jessica Cheung and Clare Toeniskoetter to meet Brian Keane at his house in Arlington, a suburb about 15 minutes outside Washington, D.C.

So cute in here. They’ve even got a fire going on.

There are so many of you!

So you met Tommy. And this is Julia, and this is Maddie, and this is Jack.

And his dog, a yellow lab named Annie. And then we sit down in his living room.

So my name is Brian Keane, and I’m 52 years old. We’re here in Arlington, Virginia.

Tell me who you are and what you do.

So Brian, like a lot of people in Arlington, used to work on Capitol Hill. His wife is a partner at a law firm that represents, among many clients, the Democratic National Committee. He now runs a nonprofit organization and a software company, both of them focused on renewable energy.

We have a sense that if we’re going to be voting, we understand that you want to vote for somebody who can be elected, and so you don’t want to kind of just say like, oh, let’s just go crazy and vote for Mr. Potato Head because I think he’s great, and see what happens.

And you said left of center. My sense of this community is that that “center” word is important. That it’s left of center, but it’s not liberal “liberal.” I went back and looked at the 2016 primary for Arlington County and saw that Hillary Clinton won this county by a 2-to-1 ratio over Bernie Sanders. It wasn’t really even close. He got 32 percent. She got twice as much, 66 percent.

What’s the kind of character of people’s political identification, if you could summarize it?

Sure. It’s a wealthy community. And it’s a very well-read community, if you will. And the reason a lot of people kind of live here is because of the politics. And so they move to Washington — certainly that’s why I came here, because I love politics.

So tell me about the politics of this community — Arlington, Virginia.

But in the most recent polling, which was conducted before South Carolina, Sanders is actually leading the state of Virginia with 28 percent of the vote. Joe Biden has 19 percent, and Michael Bloomberg has 17 percent, which, as you can probably gather, is not welcome news to Brian.

Well, look. Let’s be clear. The establishment is freaking out. The establishment is worried. Wall Street is worried. The drug companies are worried. Insurance companies are worried.

When he and his friends hear Sanders going after the establishment —

When you say Washington’s the problem, he’s probably talking about us, and that’s not really well received.

— they hear that as him going after them.

You mean it will trickle down over the whole party.

I don’t think, for every — and I really, really think Trump is bad for America — a socialist revolution is not what we’re asking we need. And if we have a nominee to stand up against Trump that says we need a socialist revolution, we’re going to lose. And we will lose our Senate. We’ll lose any strong candidates we have in the Senate, and we have a lot of strong candidates.

I think it would be really, really bad for the party.

What about as your Democratic nominee? I mean, what do you —

He’s just a little mean. I don’t think I’d like him as my neighbor.

Yeah, like any industry town would be, right? So if you’re going to say, the car manufacturers stink, I think Detroit would take umbrage to that.

This is how you hear a lot of establishment Democrats talking right now, that a Sanders nomination would trigger a meltdown inside the party.

Please tell a long story. We didn’t come here for a short story.

Well, I came to Washington, D.C. to go to college here at American University. And this is a long story. Can I tell my long story?

You say “I’m a Joe guy” with so much conviction that I kind of want to go back to understand what you mean by that.

I love the guy, but can you win? And then in that case, it’s like, so I need to go with a guy that’s a person who’s going to win. And so now I’m, like, ping-ponging back and forth of who can win, who can win, and I have to give up the guy I love, you know?

So it’s, I’ve been all over the board, though. Like it just moves so fast. And my personal thing is so interesting, though, because I’ve always — my heart has always been like, I’m a Joe Biden guy at heart.

Given what you just laid out, who do most of your neighbors tend to support in this primary?

But, to summarize: Brian went to college at American University, where he was the head of an undergraduate group that brought speakers to campus, and Joe Biden was one of them. This was in 1988, and Biden had just dropped out of his first presidential run after being caught plagiarizing a speech. And then he had a brain aneurysm that he barely survived.

And the guy was just great. Like it’s just me and Joe. And then he just says to the bartender, hey, how late are you guys open till? Last call, maybe 2 o’clock. Oh, great, great. Can I borrow your phone? Yeah. So he gives him his phone, and Joe dials and he goes, hey Beau, it’s Dad. I’m here at American University with Brian KEANE. Come on over. Get Hunter. Come on over, and let’s have a beer with Brian KEANE at American University.

And so, they shut the room down. So it’s, like, 11 o’clock at night now. And he says, hey, is there like a bar around here? And so I said, well, actually, there’s a tavern on campus. He’s like, oh, you got time? Let’s go get a beer.

They actually had to shut it down. They were like, we got to close the room.

I’m serious. I’m serious. I’m serious. Don’t make me laugh. The answer is yes, I do see the possibility of uniting us so that we can win.

He took every single question that was there.

I don’t see no leader right now of the Democratic Party who’s able to unite everyone. The Southern conservatives, the Northern liberals —

Most of we public officials, when we’re about to speak somewhere, we start off and we say, I’m really happy to be here. Well folks, I’m happy to be here. I’m happy to be anywhere in light of [LAUGHS] the last 8 or 10 months. [APPLAUSE]

Senator Joseph R. Biden, Jr. first entered public service in 1970 when he was elected to the Council of Newcastle County — excuse me — in New Jer— in Delaware. [LAUGHTER] Sorry.

[APPLAUSE] Thank you. Good evening, and welcome to tonight’s program. My name is Brian F. KEANE, and I am the director of the Kennedy Political Union.

Yes, right. So I’m there. I’m just a senior in college, I’m a kid. And he shows up. He gets out of this car, and he’s like my best friend. He’s like, Brian, it’s so great to see you! You have no idea how glad I am to see you. And I’m like, Senator Biden, so nice to meet you. No, you have no idea how glad I am to meet you — uh, to see you. Not meet you. You know, he’s very good. It’s like, in case he has met me before, he’s like, so glad to see you! And it was like [GASPS], we’re best friends. This is amazing.

And so the speech he gave for the Kennedy Political Union at A.U. was his first speech after having been driven out of the race and his aneurysm. So he shows up —

So the boys came over. And really, he was calling for a ride. [LAUGHS] And I was like, that was unbelievable. It was, like, the best night of my life.

This is actually not the end of the story.

Yeah, yeah. And that he is a Democrat’s Democrat to me.

Partly because of the relationship you had, partly because of his politics, all of it?

Yes. So Joe enters 2020, and I said, well I got to be with Joe.

But I think it’s amazing that there’s a person that can make you feel like that.

Well, I said to my wife, well, I got to go with Joe. We’re like best friends, you know? And she’s like, you don’t talk to the guy.

So this time around, 2020, did you know right away? Did it feel like he was going to be your candidate?

That he is the best politician. He loves people. And, actually, that is what the job is. And if you love people, you’re going to do well by people.

And I go, oh my God! How do you remember that? That was 1989. He goes, that was a great night, wasn’t it? How are you man? How’s it going? How are you? And I said, well, are you running for president? And he’s like, well, why not? Like, why not? And so we got coffee, and then we waited in line for the Amtrak. And it was unbelievable.

To make this long story longer, that was 1989. So fast forward to 2007. There’s rumors that he’s going to run for president. So I’m taking the Amtrak, and I get to 30th Street Station and I go up the escalator. And I’m like, I think, just to myself, I’m like, I think that’s Joe Biden over there. And there’s a guy just holding the newspaper. He’s holding it up. And I said, excuse me, Mr. President. And he folds the newspaper down, and he looks at me. He looks me in the eye, and he goes, “American University.”

michael barbaro

Tell me about what’s happened since then.

brian keane

So I love Joe. Joe’s my guy. But he has not been a strong candidate. I think he doesn’t look good. I think he’s not sounding good. And Joe Biden, who is a great guy, is playing by a rulebook that was written in 1980 maybe, 1972. And that’s really concerning to me because Donald Trump’s going to fillet him very quickly. I mean, we’re seeing these debates. Joe Biden’s version of kind of hand-to-hand combat is to just say it louder, is to yell.

archived recording (elizabeth warren)

— things that touch people’s lives.

archived recording (anchor)

Mayor, mayor —

archived recording (joe biden)

I agree. Let me she referenced me. I agreed with the great job she did, and I went on the floor and got you votes. I got votes for that bill. I convinced people to vote for it, so lets get those things straight too.

brian keane

I kind of feel like I’m walking through a nursing home and seeing an old friend, and he’s just yelling at me. And it’s like, you’re an old friend, why are you yelling? He just says it louder, you know, and it’s like, stop yelling.

archived recording (bernie sanders)

— separate health care plan.

archived recording

Senator Klobuchar, I’m going to come to you.

archived recording (joe biden)

My name was mentioned.

archived recording

I’m going to come to you for 45 seconds. 45 seconds for Vice President Biden.

archived recording (joe biden)

I’m the only guy who’s not interrupted here, all right? And I’m going to interrupt now. It costs $30 trillion. Let’s get that straight.

brian keane

It’s like he doesn’t know how to take on his opponents without just yelling it. And he was stumbling on these words.

archived recording (joe biden)

I agree that everybody, once they, in fact — anyway, my time is up. I’m sorry.

archived recording

Thank you, Vice President.

michael barbaro

You just felt he was faltering.

brian keane

Yeah.

michael barbaro

So as you’re confronting what you see as his weaknesses, you’re watching these debate performances, it sounds like you’re starting to flirt with other candidates around this time. And where is your eye starting to drift?

brian keane

To everybody, actually. And then along comes Bloomberg. And there’s a guy who really does understand social media, and he has the money to understand social media. And that’s really kind of cool. And on an electoral level, he really can go toe-to-toe with Trump on that and put his money behind the whole thing to win this thing.

michael barbaro

So when it comes to Bloomberg, for you he has this combination of values and resources. That’s the appeal.

brian keane

Yeah. And as such, he could win.

michael barbaro

And what about his candidacy so far, if anything, has given you any reservations, given you pause?

brian keane

That he so quickly got off message and kind of got sidetracked.

michael barbaro

In the debates.

brian keane

Yeah, in the debates. And to me, the problem there is, oh, so now you’re going to go one-on-one with Trump? Maybe you’re not the guy. This is a problem. This all a game-day decision for me, right? So it’s — election’s Tuesday. So, you know, can Trump destroy Bloomberg? Can he destroy Biden? Yes and yes, perhaps. Who has kind of the better heart, and I think I have that answer, because Joe is the guy. I love Joe. Who has the money to be able to do this? Bloomberg does. But Biden’s victory in South Carolina, game changer for me.

michael barbaro

Really?

brian keane

Yeah.

michael barbaro

Why?

brian keane

I didn’t believe he was going to be able to do that. I didn’t believe him when he said, it’s a firewall. And the numbers are unbelievable. It’s like, wow. Joe did it. So then you come back to Bloomberg, and it’s like, well, I don’t know.

michael barbaro

Sounds like the thing that matters most you was just victory. Is seeing Joe Biden, this person who was faltering onstage, you didn’t like the way he was presenting, suddenly seeming electable because he had won an election?

brian keane

No.

michael barbaro

No?

brian keane

The winning was really important, but that speech —

archived recording (joe biden)

Thank you, thank you, thank you, South Carolina!

brian keane

— really grabbed me.

archived recording (joe biden)

Let me talk directly to Democrats across America, especially those who will be voting on Super Tuesday.

brian keane

And it was hopeful, and it laid out an agenda.

archived recording (joe biden)

If Democrats want to nominate someone who will build on Obamacare, not scrap it; take on the N.R.A. and gun manufacturers, not protect them; stand up and give the poor a fighting chance and the middle class get restored, not raise their taxes and keep the promises we make, then join us. And if the Democrats want a nominee who’s a Democrat [CHEERING], a lifelong Democrat, a proud Democrat, an Obama-Biden Democrat, join us.

brian keane

And so now, he’s back.

archived recording (joe biden)

So here’s the deal. Let’s get back up. We’re decent. We’re brave. We’re resilient people. We can believe again. We’re better than this moment. We’re better than this president. So get up, take back our country. This the United States of America. There’s nothing beyond our capacity if we do it together. God bless you all, and may God protect our troops. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

michael barbaro

So at the moment — this is Sunday night, almost 9 o’clock — you are leaning toward Joe Biden. OK. What are the odds that you change your mind between now and Super Tuesday?

brian keane

It’s really amazing because I’m just so back and forth and back and forth every day. And every hour of every day.

michael barbaro

I want to talk about what I’m hearing you say, because I think this is a larger question happening in Virginia on Super Tuesday and part of the reason why we’re here, which is that it seems like aside from defeating Trump, which is your number one priority, a big priority for you is not having Bernie Sanders be the nominee. Is that fair to say?

brian keane

A equals B, and B equals C. Because if my number one issue is to beat Trump, then we need the candidate who can do that. So that’s really the calculus that’s happening here.

michael barbaro

But I’m hearing you waffling over these two moderate candidates, Biden and Bloomberg. And the latest polling has Sanders with close to what he had in 2016 in Arlington. Biden and Bloomberg are around 20 percent too, because they’re sharing a lot of voters. So if on Super Tuesday, Sanders sweeps a bunch of these states, and he wins in places like Virginia, it will likely have been because Biden and Bloomberg split the vote. And I wonder if you’re thinking about that at all.

brian keane

I am thinking about that. I think every other election has been like, oh, I don’t watch the polls. I just vote. I vote my heart. I vote the issues, you know? But now we’re all watching the polls. We’re all kind of —

michael barbaro

Gaming.

brian keane