Previous Projections: 11/4/16 | Today's projection resulted from analysis of 112 polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks.

I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes *Why I see a strong chance for a Trump win in Pennsylvania or Michigan Changes Since Yesterday: 1. Colorado to Clinton: Clinton picked up 0.5 points in the polls only average, which put her just ahead of Trump. 2. Michigan to Clinton: Clinton also picked up Michigan. She picked up 0.8 points in the poll only average which made the difference. 3. Pennsylvania to Trump: Trump picked up 0.4 points in the poll average, which put him just ahead of Hillary. If public transport workers remain on strike in Philly, Trump will get a bigger bump out of the sample bias. That is not yet incorporated. Polls Only - Clinton 283, Trump 255 Sample Bias - Clinton 268, Trump 270 Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Clinton 268, Trump 270 REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (FBI + incumbency rule) - Clinton 248, Trump 290 FBI refers to the reopening of the investigation and the impact of it. Incumbency rule - normally if incumbents are not above 50%, they are in trouble. I am using 47% as a guide. Where she is below that, she is in danger. EVIDENCE for Sample Bias and Shy Trump Voter Bias in Polling