Let’s run through what we discovered today.

1. Adam Schefter reported the Seahawks had turned down a fresh offer from the Dallas Cowboys. They were willing to trade a second round pick for Earl Thomas. The Seahawks said no.

2. Mike Fisher confirmed the report, noting Cowboys COO Stephen Jones made the bid.

3. Earl Thomas then revealed on Instagram he was reporting to the Seahawks and would grudgingly end his hold out.

4. Ian Rapoport added the Cowboys ‘tried like crazy’ to get Thomas but are now out. Rapoport added in a separate tweet that the Seahawks waived Thomas’ hold out fines and he will now play out the final year of his contract in Seattle.

5. Clarence Hill is reporting the Seahawks want a first round pick for Thomas.

So here’s the bit I’m struggling with. The Seahawks have just watched Jimmy Graham, Paul Richardson and Sheldon Richardson depart in free agency. They didn’t sign any big-money replacements. They filled out their roster efficiently. And yet due to the balance of the system, they’re not expected to receive any compensatory picks for the three players who departed.

If/when Thomas inevitably joins the Dallas Cowboys in 2019, the same thing could easily happen again. The Seahawks are going to need to make some moves in free agency, even if they aren’t big players at the top of the market. Any hope of recouping a third round comp pick likely rests on:

1. Thomas getting a good offer in a stale safety market

2. Their willingness to let others (eg Frank Clark) depart to protect any possible pick for Thomas

3. Not doing much in free agency despite only currently owning picks in rounds 1,3,4 and 5 of the 2019 draft

Standing tall in the face of pressure and saying, ‘we will not sell for anything less than our stated price’ is admirable sometimes. Certainly the Seahawks have won the short-term tug of war. They’ve forced Thomas to report, they haven’t bowed to his demands for a new deal or a trade and they haven’t given him away on the cheap.

Yet in the long term they will not be the winners if Thomas just walks away in free agency and by next years draft, the Seahawks are left without a second round pick.

Gregg Bell from the Tacoma News Tribune tweeted earlier that John Schneider had “Zero need to back off his demands.” This isn’t strictly true though. Thomas’ contract is coming to an end. So unless you’re prepared to receive zero compensation, there is a need to consider what teams are actually prepared to offer.

If the Seahawks passed on a second round pick for one last year of Earl Thomas, is that a logical move? Especially with the team seemingly ill-prepared to make a serious challenge for the Super Bowl?

If they’re willing to reconsider extending Thomas’ contract, that changes things. Thomas doesn’t seem to be in the mood to negotiate per his Instagram post. “The disrespect has been well noted and will not be forgotten.” It’s hardly a starting point to re-open talks. And while the franchise tag is a possibility — it’d likely just provoke another long stand-off in 2019.

A season of Earl Thomas will always be a pleasure to witness. He will rightly be remembered as one of Seattle’s best. But the Seahawks need future picks to properly re-set this roster. They only have five in the 2019 draft. They need more.

We’ll see by April whether they wish they had Dallas’ second rounder after all.

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