The administration's search for a path forward for TTIP Presented by Semiconductor Industry Association

With help from Doug Palmer

THE ADMINISTRATION'S SEARCH FOR A PATH FORWARD FOR TTIP: While the TPP has dominated headlines and campaign-trail rhetoric this summer, the Obama administration has been careful not to let the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership fall by the wayside. Instead, an enormous amount of work — including regular, bi-weekly communication between U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman and EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström — has been ongoing, a senior U.S. official told Morning Trade.


Working groups are focusing their energy on addressing some of the most difficult issues on the horizon for the agreement and analyzing whether there’s a workable landing zone, the official said. And a big part of that has been analyzing the effects of Britain’s exit from the EU.

The effects of Brexit represent a “huge new element that has to be taken into consideration as we find balance points in the end game,” the official said. Britain takes in about one-quarter of all U.S. exports to Europe — and twice that in areas like wine, government procurement and financial services — the loss of which will have to be considered in TTIP negotiations, the official added.

While the administration is optimistic about its own ability to work hard as a creative negotiating partner, it remains an open question as to whether the Europeans are ready to go, the official said.

IT’S WEDNESDAY, AUG. 24! Welcome to Morning Trade, where your Maryland-born host is still trying to figure out who to root for in this week’s Orioles-Nationals series. At least tonight I can just root for Katie Ledecky as she throws the first pitch. Any trade-related thoughts, news, tips? Send ’em over to: [email protected] or @mmcassella.

ITC LAUNCHES TOOL TO TRACK IMPORTS: The U.S. International Trade Commission on Tuesday followed up on one of last year’s Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act requirements, launching an online tool for the public to track imports to the United States.

The tool uses Commerce Department monthly import data to track changes in the volume and value of goods imported into the United States, ITC said in a press release. Data from the eight latest quarters will be available, and it will be updated “as soon as possible” after each calendar quarter, ITC said.

Users can sort data by Harmonized Tariff Schedule tariff line and narrow it down by country or quantity detail. You can check it out for yourself here.

CHINA ANTI-DUMPING CASE RULING COMING THURSDAY: The Commerce Department is set to announce its preliminary determination later this week in the anti-dumping investigation into imports of certain amorphous silica fabric from China. Imports of the product, a woven textile material used to insulate and resist extreme heat, were valued at an estimated $16 million last year. The petitioner is Auburn Manufacturing Inc.

ICYMI: RCEP TALKS KEEP ROLLING ALONG: China and the 15 other countries involved in talks on the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will hold their 15th round of negotiations in Tianjin, China, in October, following meetings earlier this month in Ho Chi Minh City, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce recently announced.

The RCEP talks also include Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India and the 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The Obama administration has raised the specter of China using the RCEP negotiations to “write the rules of trade” for the region if Congress fails to pass the TPP pact, which includes four ASEAN countries as well as Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Peru and Chile.

THE POLLS PERSPECTIVE: Maybe it’s the result of the beating the TPP has taken on the presidential campaign trail, but a new Rasmussen Reports national survey shows that just more than one-quarter of Americans, or 27 percent, have a favorable opinion of the Pacific Rim trade deal. Almost half, or 48 percent, view the deal unfavorably, the telephone and online poll of 1,000 likely voters shows. The poll also shows that despite the recent spotlight on the trade deal, many Americans are still unaware of the specifics: 26 percent said they didn’t know enough about the TPP to voice any opinion of it.

The survey results notably give insight into Americans’ views about the TPP specifically, while much of the analysis done so far has focused on opinions surrounding free and fair trade in general. Those surveys have so far leaned more positive for free-trade supporters: An NBC/WSJ poll found that a majority of Americans supported free trade, for example, while The Washington Post suggested that relatively few Americans cared about the issue.

SYNGENTA’S GROWTH LAGS AS CHEMCHINA MOVES AHEAD: After winning approval on Monday from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, ChemChina is moving forward with its proposed $43 billion acquisition of Syngenta. But at the same time, Syngenta’s core business may be struggling, according to an analysis by global trade data company Panjiva.

The seed company’s imports into the United States dropped 9.2 percent in the three months ending July 31, Panjiva data show, including an 18.5 percent decrease in July alone. Panjiva notes that’s consistent with the company’s 5 percent fall in North American revenues that the company saw in the first six months of this year. Organic chemicals lead Syngenta’s U.S. imports and fell 24.2 percent in July from the year before, Panjiva said.

WHY TPP WON’T IMPROVE NATIONAL SECURITY: Call it the anti-administration viewpoint: Passing the TPP won’t improve the country’s security, former Commerce Department official Clyde Prestowitz wrote in a New York Times op-ed on Tuesday. Prestowitz, who also served as vice chairman of President Bill Clinton’s Commission on Trade and Investment in the Asia-Pacific Region, argued that the combination of America’s military presence in the region and its chronic trade deficits with most countries would be more effective in attempts to “mollify Asian leaders” than a free-trade deal would.

Asian nations’ participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, both spearheaded by China, signals that “it’s already clear that the TPP is not going to stop China from writing some of the future rules of world trade,” Prestowitz said. Read the full op-ed here.

THE CASE FOR TRADE DEFICITS: Prestowitz’s analysis ignited a bit of discussion in the Twitterverse on the merits of free-trade agreements and a response from Dan Ikenson, director of the Cato Institute’s trade policy center, who called the piece mostly “anachronistic” or “plain wrong.” In his own op-ed, published in Forbes, Ikenson argued against the idea that trade deficits are a sign of economic decline and instead described them as a symbol of “U.S. economic hegemony.”

“This misguided belief that the trade account is a scoreboard measuring the success or failure of trade policy explains much of the public’s skepticism about trade and trade agreements, lends plausibility to Trumptastic claims that the United States is routinely outsmarted by shrewder foreign trade negotiators, and provides cover for the same, recycled protectionist arguments that have persisted without merit for centuries,” Ikenson wrote. “But what has long been absent is a single convincing, factual argument that the U.S. trade deficit is a problem in need of a solution.” The full op-ed is here.

ON A MISSION TO TRADE: Meanwhile, the Commerce Department plans a slate of trade missions to close out the waning months of the Obama administration. First up is “Trade Winds - Latin America” next month in Santiago, Chile, and featuring participants from Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Mexico and Argentina. That’s followed by a health information technology trade mission to Brazil later in the month, and a health care business development mission to China in October.

Perhaps the most interesting is the safety and security trade mission to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait from Nov. 12-18. Here is how the department is selling the Saudi Arabia leg of the trip: “The regime has at its disposal nearly $500B of petrodollars and will spend ‘whatever it takes’ to secure the country’s stability and defeat any internal or external regime threats.” To see the complete roster of upcoming trade missions, click here.

INTERNATIONAL OVERNIGHT

— The head of Britain’s parliamentary committee on China relations said China and Hong Kong will be prioritized in the U.K.’s post-Brexit trade talks, the South China Morning Post reports.

— British exports are rising in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the U.K. Telegraph reports.

— Michigan Democrats and union leaders are rallying against the TPP, the Detroit News reports.

— The TPP is a good deal for the Midwest, the Chicago Tribune editorial board writes.

THAT'S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: [email protected] and @ABehsudi; [email protected] and @mmcassella; [email protected] and @tradereporter; [email protected] and @mjkorade; and [email protected] and @JsonHuffman. You can also follow @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

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