Former London mayor Boris Johnson addresses members of the public during the Brexit Battle Bus tour of the UK in May.

Come June 23, Britain will decide whether it will remain in the European Union or leave.

According to the latest polls, Britons narrowly favour remaining in the EU - but if it decides to exit, what would this mean for New Zealand?

There are two main areas to consider: migration and trade.

NEIL HALL New Zealand has enjoyed close ties with Britain.

For those who find London life tantalising, the 'Brexit' (British exit) could spell opportunity. Britain would be free of EU labour rules and the Government could become more flexible and open to Kiwis filling in the desired skill gaps.

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* John Key on Brexit: UK remaining in European Union is in NZ's best interests



123RF The UK skill shortage list includes jobs as engineers, chefs, medical consultants, geologists, radiographers and child services social workers.

Currently, EU workers move freely among member states, without needing a work permit. They're promised equal treatment and are allowed to stay in the country after ending employment.

The majority of New Zealanders were keen for a similar arrangement among Commonwealth countries, according to survey results in March.

JOBS SHORT-TERM BENEFIT

This was the one short-term benefit Massey University economics professor Christoph Schumacher could see for Kiwis, floating above economic risks.

Allowing "borderless" migrants to fill skill shortages across countries was a big part of uniting economies, he said.

"The reality is however, is that it never happened as much as politicians wanted it to, mainly because of language barriers," Schumacher said.

"That has created a certain number of shortages in EU member states, such as in the UK and in Germany."

Schumacher pointed out it was already quite easy for Commonwealth citizens to move over: "I'm not sure this will open a whole lot more opportunities in the UK that don't already exist."

Former foreign minister Winston Peters has said the exit is a chance for Britain to "heal a rift" with the 53 Commonwealth nations it left behind when it joined European Economic Community (EEC) in 1973.

"It would signal the dawn of a new age of Commonwealth economic advancement," he said in a speech last month to the House of Lords.

"Why trade on a continental scale, when you could really trade on a global scale?"

EXPORT RISKS

Fears about trade have left some with concerns - New Zealand are currently in free trade talks with the EU, and work was underway to negotiate a deal next year.

Prime Minister John Key has expressed pro-EU sentiments, including for trade reasons.

The EU is New Zealand's third-largest trading partner. The two-way trade valued at $19.6billion in goods and services in the year to June 2015. Main exports to the EU include sheep meat, fruit and wine.

Schumacher said New Zealand would not lose a great ally in EU, but if the Brexit went ahead the effects would be felt on a macro-level. No country has ever withdrawn from the EU.



"This will rattle the EU. This could be a signal for other countries to potentially leave as well, which could upset the world economy, and therefore, upset the market for New Zealand in Europe."

He said New Zealand faced export uncertainties already in China with falling commodity and dairy prices.

SLOWER NEGOTIATIONS

Auckland University banking and finance professor David Mayes​ said an exit could slow New Zealand-EU free trade negotiations right down.

"Trade with the UK is more important than trade with us," he said.

"If the UK decides to leave then there will be all sorts of extra negotiations between the UK and the EU about what they're going to do. I've already heard the EU suggest that they think that that will delay things.

"We're not exactly high on their list of priorities."

He said there were some problems for New Zealand in counteracting the French in agriculture.

Mayes didn't think there would be "big gains" either way for Kiwis. "One of the most important parts of the relationship between us and Europe is with commercial investment, that I would expect to continue from both directions."

He warned that some of the consequences of a Brexit reported in the UK were bandied around for political gain, and the negotiations were "completely up in the air".

"What they stay with could be almost exactly what exists at present, make it a main part of the single market, and just in effect opt-out of all of the decision making and some of the contributions."

In other words, we'll just have to wait and see.