Syracuse's crowded race for mayor enters its final month as a two-person contest between Democrat Juanita Perez Williams and independent Ben Walsh, according to a Syracuse.com/Spectrum News/Siena College poll made public today.

The poll reveals a dissatisfied electorate clamoring for change in the waning five weeks of the campaign. While Perez Williams enjoys a slight lead, the race has narrowed down to two competitors - neither who have ever run for public office -- who are within striking distance of each other.

Perez Williams (35 percent) and Walsh (28 percent) are firmly ahead of Republican Laura Lavine (9 percent) Working Families Party candidate Joe Nicoletti (9 percent) and the Green Party's Howie Hawkins (5 percent), according to the poll of likely Syracuse voters. The poll, the first independent survey to be made public in the general election campaign, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Lavine, 61, won the Republican Party backing after Walsh, with deep family roots in the GOP, was thwarted in his attempt to be considered for the party's endorsement. Walsh now leads Lavine, even among Republicans, the poll found, and she's tied with a competitor who is no longer campaigning.

Nicoletti, 69, a longtime Syracuse Common Council member, won the Democratic Party endorsement. But he ended up losing September's Democratic primary (52-34 percent) to Perez Williams, a lawyer and Navy veteran.

Even though Nicoletti has the Working Families Party line in the mayor's race, he is not campaigning and has endorsed Perez Williams in the Nov. 7 election.

With almost a month to go before the election, the race will likely come down to the 14 percent of voters in Syracuse who are still undecided, said Steve Greenberg, a Siena College Research Institute spokesman.

"We have a very interesting non-traditional close race for mayor," Greenberg said. "There is still a month until Election Day, and presumably these campaigns are going to spend a lot of money both building themselves up and attacking their opponent."

Nicoletti supporters who change their mind could also play a role in tilting the race, Greenberg said. "One would assume that the lower the Nicoletti vote, the better it is for Perez Williams," he said.

What voters want

The poll shows that Syracuse voters are desperate for change in a city that has struggled to overcome deep financial problems, decades of declining population and one of the highest poverty rates in the nation.

Most Syracuse voters (49-43 percent) said they believe the city is headed in the wrong direction. And an overwhelming 63 percent of likely voters said what matters most to them in the mayoral election is "choosing the candidate most willing to make changes here in Syracuse."

A closer look at the poll reveals a deep disconnect between Syracusans. Those who plan to vote for Perez Williams feel the city is headed in the right direction (57-34 percent) and approve of the job done by two-term Democratic Mayor Stephanie Miner. Those who plan to vote for Walsh feel the opposite way, with 59 percent responding that the city is headed in the wrong direction.

"If you think things are good, you tend to support Perez Williams," Greenberg said. "If you think things are bad, you tend to support Walsh or one of the other candidates."

Most voters, however, agreed on the areas where Syracuse is failing: An overwhelming 84 percent rated the conditions of city roads, water pipes and infrastructure as fair or poor. And 68 percent of voters rated the quality of Syracuse public schools as fair or poor.

The poll was conducted Oct. 3 through Oct. 5 by live operators who received responses from 571 likely Syracuse voters reached on landlines and cell phones. The poll represents a snapshot in time following the Democratic mayoral primary by only three weeks, giving an early indication of how voters stand.

If either Perez Williams or Walsh holds on to win the election, it would be an historic victory. Perez Williams, 54, would be the first Latina elected mayor of Syracuse. Walsh, 38, would be Syracuse's first mayor not affiliated with a political party.

Walsh, the son of former 10-term Rep. James Walsh and grandson of the late Syracuse mayor and congressman William Walsh, made it a competitive two-way race by beating Lavine among Republican voters, 37-30 percent, according to the poll.

Walsh is also leading all candidates among independent voters who are not enrolled in a political party, with 45 percent of the vote. The next closest is Perez Williams with 17 percent. Walsh, who is not enrolled in a political party, will appear on the Independence Party and Reform Party ballot lines.

Walsh and Perez Williams surged to their front-runner status on the strength of high approval ratings among voters, and strong name recognition, the poll found.

Walsh is viewed favorably by 52 percent of voters and unfavorably by 13 percent. Perez Williams is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters, and unfavorably by 23 percent. No other candidate is close to being viewed as favorably as the frontrunners.

Perez Williams was the best known of the candidates, with only 24 percent saying they had not heard of her or did not know enough about her to have an opinion.

Lavine, a former school superintendent in the LaFayette School District, was the least known, with 55 percent of likely voters saying they had not heard of her or did not know enough about her to have an opinion.

What voters think

Even some Republicans who have heard of Lavine say they don't know of any compelling reason to vote for her. Among them is Ian Hunter, 75, who has lived on Candee Avenue on Syracuse's East Side for 48 years.

Hunter, a conservative Republican who serves on the Syracuse Republican Committee and tried unsuccessfully to run for mayor in the past, told Siena pollsters that he will likely vote for Hawkins.

"I don't think she gets what the problems are in the city," Hunter said of Lavine. "To be honest, I feel bad for her. I wish her well, but I just don't think she has captured anybody's imagination."

Carmen Gaglio, a Republican retiree who lives on Syracuse's North Side, said he plans to vote for Walsh instead of the GOP nominee because he likes Walsh's plan to revive the city's economy.

"I think he's a smart man and he knows what he's saying," Gaglio said of Walsh. "I've seen him on TV. He sounds logical."

Gaglio, who worked at Carrier Corp. in DeWitt for more than 20 years before he lost his job when the plant closed, said he also thinks Walsh will do a better job than Miner.

"I think she's a poor mayor," he said of Miner. "The streets are bad and there are potholes all over the place."

But as the poll showed, those with a more favorable opinion of the job done by Miner are planning to vote for Perez Williams. Among them is Syracuse University scientist Daniel Curewitz, 47, who owns a home in the city's Westcott neighborhood and says Miner has been "OK" as mayor.

"I think Juanita Perez Williams has a focus on the right things," Curewitz said. "Everybody talks about crime and education. But when it comes to actually dealing with employment, crime or infrastructure breakdown, the question is how to provide something more than lip service? She's pointing to causes of problems and trying to deal with those problems rather than just pointing to symptoms."

Debates to follow

The poll's publication comes on the same day as the first televised debate of the general election.

Perez Williams, Walsh, Lavine and Hawkins will face each other at 6:30 p.m. today in a debate hosted by Spectrum News Syracuse. The 90-minute, commercial-free debate will be moderated by Capital Tonight host Liz Benjamin and air on channels 1, 10 and 200 in Central and Northern New York.

The four candidates will also participate in a live debate sponsored by Syracuse.com and The Post-Standard at 7 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 18. The event will be live-streamed on Syracuse.com, Facebook Live and YouTube from the news outlet's Merchants Commons headquarters.

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A look inside the 2017 Syracuse mayor's poll by Mark Weiner on Scribd