People count the votes in Dublin, Ireland, February 27 | Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images Forum 6 takeaways from the Irish election The chances of a second ballot look ‘very, very high.’

When the Irish parliament was dissolved this month, the incumbent Fine Gael and Labour government was quietly confident of being returned to office. Prime Minister Enda Kenny was the odds-on favorite to become the first Fine Gael leader to win consecutive Irish general elections.

It’s still too early to say whether Kenny will hang on after Friday's vote, but what is clear is that Irish voters have rejected established parties — and particularly the "stability" preached by Fine Gael — in favor of a plethora of independents and smaller parties.

Exit polls show that Fine Gael topped the poll with just over 26 percent — down 10 points from 2011 — with Fianna Fail, the once dominant power in Irish politics, a few points behind, followed by about 16 percent for independent candidates and just under 15 percent for Sinn Fein. What government will emerge — and how long it will last — is difficult to predict as officials count through the weekend.

Here are six takeaways on the election results so far:

1. Ireland’s political landscape has been transformed

2011 was supposed to be the "watershed" election in Irish politics. It wasn’t — 2016 will be. Irish voters have rejected establishment parties in record numbers. Fine Gael will do well to win more than 45 seats; Fianna Fail could end up with a similar total. Even together the two parties could struggle to muster the 79 seats needed to hold power in the Irish parliament. And that is unprecedented.

The question now is whether Fine Gael and Fianna Fail can pull off what was until now unimaginable — form a coalition.

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, in various incarnations, have dominated Irish politics since independence almost a century ago. In the early 1980s, the two parties commanded 85 percent of the vote between them. As recently as 2007, they were polling around 70 percent. Friday more than half of the Irish electorate rejected the two established parties.

The question now is whether Fine Gael and Fianna Fail can pull off what was until now unimaginable — form a coalition together. The two parties are divided more by history than politics (both sit on the center-right): Fine Gael emerged from supporters of the treaty with the British that saw Ireland gain independence in 1922. Fianna Fáil was founded by those who rejected the deal. This civil war split has divided Irish politics ever since. This, finally, looks set to change.

2. Austerity isn’t working

Ireland is the poster child for austerity in Europe. Growth last year was 7 percent. Unemployment has fallen steadily. Unveiling his budget in October, Irish finance minister Michael Noonan boasted that the government "has consigned to the history books the days of boom and bust, and the attitude of 'if I have it, I’ll spend it.'"

Fine Gael was so proud of its record of fiscal probity that it ran on a slogan of "Let’s keep the recovery going."

But many Irish people have not felt any of the recovery’s effects. The exit polls Friday suggested more than a quarter felt their personal finances had deteriorated over the past year, with almost half saying their finances had stayed the same. Parties opposed to austerity, explicitly or implicitly, have done very well.

Despite effectively bankrupting the country during a decade and a half in power, Fianna Fail’s message of a more balanced recovery struck a chord with voters.

Despite effectively bankrupting the country during a decade and a half in power, Fianna Fail’s message of a more balanced recovery struck a chord with voters. On the left, Sinn Fein recorded its best ever performance in the modern era; the newly-minted Social Democrats are on course to win at least half a dozen seats and the Greens and the cumbersomely titled socialist composite Anti-Austerity Alliance—People Before Profit look set to make gains.

For the first time in its history, Ireland will have a significant left-wing alternative in parliament.

3. There’s more than one Ireland

Ireland is an increasingly split polity. The electorate is divided between the rural and the urban; the young and the old; and along class lines. According to exit polls, almost 30 percent of those over 65 voted Fianna Fail — but barely 13 percent of those aged 18-24 backed the "Soldiers of Destiny."

In general, younger voters supported more left-wing, socially liberal parties, while older voters chose the more conservative, established forces. Center-right parties, in general, performed better in rural Ireland, where family connections between voters and parties often run deep. After decades of civil war politics, class is also emerging as a significant cleavage in Irish politics. Working class voters in particular appear to have deserted Fine Gael and Labour.

4. Labour pains

In 2011, Labour won 38 seats and even, briefly, looked set to the top the polls for the first time in its history. Today Labour is decimated. Blamed by its core support for abandoning the marginalized while in government, the party won less than 8 percent of the vote and will struggle to return seats in double digits. In Dublin North-West, support collapsed from 43 percent in 2011 to just 7 percent.

With the exception of Fine Gael, almost every other political party has profited from Labour’s implosion.

With the exception of Fine Gael, almost every other political party has profited from Labour’s implosion. The Social Democrats, predominantly a breakaway from Labour, have done well. Sinn Fein, the party aligned to the Irish Republican Army, could win more than 25 seats — an impressive achievement particularly given the level of opposition to Gerry Adams’ party in much of the Irish media. Almost wiped out in 2011, Fianna Fail, the most successful party in Irish political history is back — although it still recorded its second worst ever performance since 1930.

5. Irish voters still love a maverick

Ireland has a long history of electing independents, but 2016 is a record breaker. Dozens of independent candidates are set to win seats. Some are running on single-issues, such as Clare doctor Michael Harty campaigning to restore rural GPs’ income to pre-austerity levels. Shane Ross, a former journalist and de facto leader of the Independent Alliance, a group of aligned non-party candidates, topped the poll in his Dublin constituency.

Other independenta are less savory: In Tipperary, Michael Lowry is expected to once more top the poll, despite currently being on trial on tax charges. Michael and Danny Healy-Rae could both be returned in Kerry, continuing a political dynasty established by their flat-capped father, Jackie. All politics is local — especially in Ireland.

6. Fresh elections may beckon

Forming a new government will be very, very difficult — if not downright impossible. Kenny has said that he would not countenance a coalition with Sinn Fein or Fianna Fail. But with Labour decimated, he will have no choice if he wants to stay in power (and could yet be defenestrated by his party in any case).

The most realistic chance of a Fianna-Fail coalition is if both sides emerge with roughly equal numbers of seats. Even then, burying the civil war hatchet could be easier said than done.

It looks as if only a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition could command a majority, but such an alliance could prove unstable, for reasons of personal and political animosity.

Fianna Fail campaigned on a platform to abolish the controversial Irish Water scheme — a flagship Fine Gael policy in government. Neither party would want to be the "junior" partner in a coalition. The most realistic chance of a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition is if both sides emerge with roughly equal numbers of seats. Even then, burying the civil war hatchet could be easier said than done. If they cannot another election beckons.

On Saturday, a Fine Gael strategist said that the chances of a second election "very soon is now very, very high."

Given the anger expressed by the Irish electorate this week, there is no guarantee that another vote would deliver a more conclusive outcome.

Peter Geoghegan is a writer and journalist based in Glasgow.