The prime minister still has confidence in Veterans Affairs Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould, a senior government source says, despite an explosive series of stories over the past few days appearing to indicate that the relationship has totally blown apart.

Justin Trudeau has not spoken personally to Wilson-Raybould since reports emerged of her falling-out with the Prime Minister’s Office over how to handle the legal troubles of corporate giant SNC-Lavalin, the source said, but Trudeau intends to talk to her before the next cabinet meeting on Feb. 19.

The PMO is assuming for now that the confidence is returned, because Wilson-Raybould has not resigned, the source said. If anonymous reports of “undue influence” on her were true, in fact, the former attorney general would have had a duty to tell the prime minister four months ago and resign if he had failed to step in.

“At the end of the day, the test of undue influence is did somebody force her to take a decision she wouldn’t have otherwise taken? … The answer to that is clearly no, because it didn’t happen,” the source said.

As it happens, Trudeau will be in Wilson-Raybould’s home city of Vancouver on Sunday for a Chinese New Year event, and he’s due to be accompanied by other B.C. members of the Liberal caucus. It wasn’t clear late on Saturday whether Wilson-Raybould would be among them.

Speculation has been rampant this weekend that Wilson-Raybould’s future in cabinet is on shaky ground, because she has failed to deny reports of a colossal dispute with the Prime Minister’s Office, which allegedly led to her demotion from justice minister to Veterans Affairs in January.

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The dispute reportedly revolved around SNC-Lavalin’s eligibility for what’s known as a “deferred prosecution agreement” — essentially a plea deal in its ongoing charges of fraud and corruption. The Globe and Mail reported on Thursday that Wilson-Raybould’s refusal to go along with such an agreement put her on a collision course with the PMO.

Wilson-Raybould’s silence has only fuelled suggestions that she or allies acting on her behalf are behind the stories of her dissatisfaction with how she was treated in the cabinet shuffle.

But that also gives rise to the question: if Wilson-Raybould is in such profound disagreement with the prime minister and his officials, how can she remain in cabinet? There is, in fact, a law for that — or more correctly, a legal principle known as the “Shawcross doctrine.”

It’s all laid out in a blog post by respected University of Ottawa law professor Craig Forcese, which was much circulated on Saturday, dissecting Wilson-Raybould’s obligations in this affair, particularly whether she truly was facing inappropriate political pressure.

“If a clear Shawcross line was crossed, the expectation would then be that the (attorney general) would resign. That did not happen,” Forcese writes.

Legalities aside, there are simple questions of optics and practical politics at this point, several days after the story broke. The prime minister still has confidence in Wilson-Raybould, but do her other cabinet colleagues? By allowing the speculation about alleged corruption to hang out there, simply through silence, how much damage is being done to her government?

And what about her continuing obligations in her new job? These stories have served to reinforce, if not confirm, the perception that Wilson-Raybould’s move to Veterans Affairs is a demotion. So how does she intend to deal with veterans themselves in the coming days and weeks?

“Her DEMOTION makes sense now, UGLY POLITICAL SENSE,” Wilson-Raybould’s own father, Bill Wilson, posted on his Facebook page late last week.

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Successive ministers, Conservative and Liberal, have had a difficult time persuading veterans that their issues are important to the government and not just an afterthought. What are they to think of these reports that Wilson-Raybould — or at least her friends and family — regards her job in charge of this file as punishment?

The prime minister and Wilson-Raybould have a lot to talk about when they do have that conversation. It won’t be just about what happened or didn’t happen in the lead-up to the cabinet shuffle, but also about what’s happened since Thursday and where this goes in future.

Will that conversation happen while the PM is in Vancouver on Sunday? I guess we’ll see.

Susan Delacourt is the Star’s Ottawa bureau chief and a columnist covering national politics. Reach her via email: sdelacourt@thestar.ca or follow her on Twitter: @susandelacourt

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