Research Results

More would prefer Labour to lead than National if a colaition government is needed later this year.





In 2014, preceding the general election, Horizon Research asked respondents to four nationwide surveys which party they preferred to lead a coalition government if one was needed after the election.





In the last survey before the 2014 election, dconducted in July/August 2014, 56% preferred National to lead a coalition if necessary and 44% preferred Labour.





In March 2017 the position is reversed. Overall, 54% would prefer a Labour led coalition if one was necessary after the election on September 23. 46% would prefer a National-led coalition.





Among those who say they are 100% likely to vote in the next general election, 52% would prefer a Labour-led coalition and 48% a National-led coalition





Winston's choice - 77% of his voters want a Labour-led government

If New Zealand First ends up holding the balance of power after the next election, those who gave the party their party vote in 2014 are likely to prefer the party leadership to support a Labour-led coalition, just as they did in 2014.





Prior to the 2014 election, 64% of those who had voted for New Zealand First in 2011 general election preferred a Labour led coalition. In March 2017, 77% of those who voted for New Zealand First in the 2014 general election prefer Labour.





The survey was conducted between March 21 and 31, 2017. It had 1162 respondents representing the New Zealand 18+ population at the most recent census. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error is +/- 2.9%.