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OTTAWA — As local candidates for mayor and city council collect their lawn signs, federal parties are already eyeing Manitoba seats for the October 2019 election.

The Free Press spoke with backroom insiders from the three main political parties, as well as political scientists, to learn which Manitoba ridings are in play, whose seat is safe and what messages politicians will target at Winnipeggers.

Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley

Liberal MP Doug Eyolfson represents a riding on Winnipeg’s western border, making it a target for the Conservatives.

Doug Eyolfson's win in 2015 surprised many. The riding had been held by the Conservatives for the previous decade. (Mikaela MacKenzie / Winnipeg Free Press files)

Christopher Adams, a University of Manitoba political scientist, said the riding follows a national trend, where federal elections are increasingly decided by swing ridings on the growing, outer edges of Canada’s largest cities.

"Liberal support declines as you get out to the further suburbs," he said, with the area favouring Tory tax cuts.

Eyolfson’s win in 2015 surprised many, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity vaulting him to success.

The riding was held for a decade by its current MLA, Steven Fletcher, whom the federal Tories have barred from running under their banner.

The Conservatives have chosen former city councillor Marty Morantz as their candidate; his familiarity in the riding could make him Eyolfson’s nemesis. (Mike Deal / Winnipeg Free Press files)

Fletcher has pledged to seek a federal seat in the 2019 vote, but he’s been coy about which riding, and whether he’ll be a candidate for the party that started by fellow Tory outcast Maxime Bernier.

The Conservatives have chosen former city councillor Marty Morantz, whose familiarity in the riding could make him Eyolfson’s nemesis.

Eyolfson has piloted numerous public-health policies in Parliament, but Liberal insiders are concerned about his lack of name recognition in the riding.

Kildonan–St. Paul

MaryAnn Mihychuk’s suburban riding is another target for the Tories, and the only other seat that has Liberal backrooms uneasy.

Mihychuk was demoted from cabinet in early 2017 after a series of reported difficulties, from spending announcements that hadn’t been approved, to prickly relations with staff.

MaryAnn Mihychuk was demoted from cabinet in early 2017 after a series of reported difficulties, from spending announcements that hadn’t been approved, to prickly relations with staff. (Adrian Wyld / The Canadian Press files)

Allegations emerged earlier this year that Mihychuk had acted inappropriately at Winnipeg evacuation centres, causing confusion and upsetting Red Cross staff, during the Island Lake fires in 2017.

Mihychuk has downplayed both concerns, but the Liberals have resisted making her a parliamentary secretary.

The party still hasn’t green-lighted Mihychuk as their candidate in the riding. Observers, including from a rival party, say she has a firm grasp of the riding, drawing in a large number of individual donations and holding regular outreach sessions, particularly with seniors.

She’ll need to hold their support for the coming year, and it’s partially why Trudeau stopped by a retirement home in her riding last month.

The Tories will pick their candidate on Nov. 4; running are provincial PC staffer Raquel Dancho and Janet Campbell, whose mother Joy Smith held the riding for a decade.

Winnipeg South

Adams said Winnipeg South is a classic bellwether riding, and Conservative sources confirmed it’s on their list of targeted races.

Liberal Terry Duguid won Winnipeg South in 2015, and the party is banking on his name recognition this time around. (Wayne Glowacki / Winnipeg Free Press files)

Liberal Terry Duguid won in 2015, and the party banking on his name recognition this time around.

Since December 2015, Duguid has served as a parliamentary secretary, a role that takes him out of the riding on a minister’s behalf to make announcements. Trudeau hasn’t appointed Duguid to cabinet, which would have boosted his visibility.

The Tories haven’t yet set a date for the nomination race. Candidates include provincial PC staffer Melanie Maher and former air force pilot Tyler West.

Winnipeg Centre and Winnipeg North

The NDP hopes to make gains in these two Liberal ridings, but Raymond Hébert, a political science professor emeritus at Université de Saint-Boniface, says both Liberal incumbents are popular.

Robert-Falcon Ouellette is generally popular among downtown residents. (Boris Minkevich / Winnipeg Free Press files)

Robert-Falcon Ouellette is generally popular among downtown residents, while Kevin Lamoureux is "almost impossible to beat" after years as an MLA.

Hébert said that Winnipeg broke with its traditional loyalties to the three main political parties about a decade ago, when the Tories held the southwest, the Liberals held the north and the NDP kept downtown ridings. Now, the city largely follows national trends.

"I think the NDP is in bad shape in Winnipeg, but the Tories could stand to win four or five seats easily, I think, if there was a Tory swing across the country."

Kevin Lamoureux is considered "almost impossible to beat" in Winnipeg North after his years as an MLA. (Sean Kilpatrick / The Canadian Press files)

Still, Adams says the NDP has more of a chance in Winnipeg than Regina and Saskatoon, whose ridings all span downtown and suburban neighbourhoods. "Winnipeg has a sufficiently large working-class population to generate (NDP) members of Parliament," he said.

Yet some party loyalists are concerned about leader Jagmeet Singh’s lack of visibility. A year after taking the helm of the party, he’s been to Winnipeg once, for a low-key visit with community groups in January.

The party has not yet picked its candidates.

Elmwood–Transcona

NDP MP Daniel Blaikie’s seat is considered safe by all three parties. (Ruth Bonneville / Winnipeg Free Press files)

NDP MP Daniel Blaikie’s seat is considered safe by all three parties.

The Tories are hoping that former MP Lawrence Toet will take back his riding.

The election of council candidate Shawn Nason, who had worked for Toet when he was MP, during the civic election last week, bodes well, they say.

Winnipeg South Centre

Jim Carr probably holds the safest seat in the province, as a cabinet minister in a traditional Liberal riding. (John Woods / Winnipeg Free Press files)

Probably the safest seat in the province, Trade Diversification Minister Jim Carr sits in a traditional Liberal riding, though it had elected Tory MP Joyce Bateman in 2011.

The Tories haven’t decided on their candidate; currently running is Lawrence Hamm, the superintendent of Winnipeg's Mennonite schools, while there are rumours Bateman will seek another term.

Saint Boniface–Saint Vital

Dan Vandal, who represented the riding as a city councillor for two decades, is popular as the current MP. (Mike Deal / Free Press files)

One of the Conservatives’ first picks in Winnipeg was candidate Rejeanne Caron, whom leader Andrew Scheer highlighted during a visit to the city in August.

Dan Vandal, who represented the riding as a city councillor for two decades, is popular as the current MP. Before the 2015 election, the seat was held by the Tories.

Shelley Glover, who was also a bilingual Winnipeg police officer, became a cabinet minister. She decided not to run in 2015.

The Tory rural zones

All three parties expect the federal Tories to retain their five seats in Manitoba, which make up every non-Winnipeg riding except for northern Manitoba.

The only sitting MP who is not seeking a seat or their party’s nomination is Robert Sopuck, who will retire after representing Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa since 2010. (Matt Goerzen / The Brandon Sun files)

Adams says the Tories’ only vulnerability is Brandon because the city isn’t as loyal to the Conservatives as the surrounding municipalities that make up the Brandon—Souris riding.

The only sitting MP who is not seeking a seat or their party’s nomination is Robert Sopuck, who will retire after representing Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa since 2010. Sopuck has not yet endorsed a candidate but plans to do so, which will likely heavily influence the race.

The candidates include Dan Mazier, who stepped down as head of Keystone Agricultural Producers, Ben Fox, who left his role at Manitoba Beef Producers, and longtime school trustee Floyd Martens.

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

Manitoba’s northern riding consists largely of two key NDP demographics: blue-collar mining towns and remote Indigenous communities.

The federal Liberals have been in talks with MLA Judy Klassen about running in Churchill—Keewatinook Aski. (Wayne Glowacki / Winnipeg Free Press files)

But the area has seen electoral surprises before, such as during the 2016 provincial election, when Liberal candidate Judy Klassen won by more than 10 points against the NDP despite having a smaller campaign budget.

The Liberals have been in talks with Klassen about running as a federal candidate, but have not yet decided whether to extend that offer. She is popular with the First Nations that make up a large part of the riding, though NDP incumbent Niki Ashton has widespread support among band leaders and Métis communities.

Niki Ashton won the past three elections, but her 2015 lead amounted to less than 1,000 votes, suggesting a strong opponent could take the riding. (Sean Kilpatrick / The Canadian Press files)

The Liberals have reached out to Sheila North, the former MKO grand chief.

Ashton’s travel expenditures show she is frequently in the riding, and not just her hometown of Thompson.

She’s won the past three elections, but her 2015 lead amounted to less than 1,000 votes, suggesting a strong opponent could take the riding.

The Liberals see it as their best shot outside Winnipeg.

dylan.robertson@freepress.mb.ca