NFL PICKS (WEEK #9)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

Hello football fans, last week we went 1-1 with our official picks, while winning both plays for which I was leaning towards a certain team. We are now posting a 18-11-2 record (62.1%). This week I’ve got three profitable bets, let’s cross our fingers we have at least two winners!

PICK #1: Philadelphia Eagles -8 vs Denver Broncos

Wow, there are a lot of factors going in favor of the Eagles. But let’s start with a couple of things that make me worry a little bit: 1) the Eagles are coming off an easy 33-10 win over the 49ers, which is certainly not a good preparation for the following game where you might feel like things are always going to be easy; 2) the public is pounding the Eagles with 85% of spread bets and 72% of money lines going on Philly. As a contrarian, that’s not something I like to see.

Enough for the bad news. Can you believe the Broncos are playing a third straight road game, while the Eagles are playing a third straight home game? That is seldom seen in the NFL. That’s a big advantage.

The Broncos are coming off a Monday night loss, so they’ve had one less day to prepare for this matchup. They also have to travel two time zones all the way to the East coast.

Playing a non-conference road game is always less motivating for NFL teams, especially when you are coming off two divisional games which is the case for Denver who just faced the Chargers and the Chiefs.

Brock Osweiler will be the Broncos’ starting QB. He hasn’t been good recently, throwing 15 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions last year, but head coach Vance Joseph had to make a move following another poor outing from Trevor Siemian.

I suggest placing your bet early in the week since I expect the line to get even more inflated considering how heavily people are betting the Eagles.

PICK #2: New York Jets +3 vs Buffalo Bills

It’s funny how I’ve been able to handicap Buffalo’s games pretty well this year. I picked them on weeks 3, 7 and 8 against the Broncos, the Bucs and the Raiders, and they won them all. On week #5, I layed the Bills in Cincinnati and they did not cover the 3.5 spread. So basically I’m 4-0 in games involving the team from Western New York.

This is a big game for the Bills franchise, who have last made the playoffs in 1999. They are the surprise of the year with a 5-2 record, and a very winnable game this Thursday at the Jets. Buffalo just acquired wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin from the Panthers, in exchange for 3rd and 7th round picks. That’s seems like a good trade for the Bills who desperately needed help at this position, but Benjamin won’t be in the lineup this week.

Ok, so why am I picking the Jets? They will be playing a third home game over their past four contests, including back-to-back so less traveling on such a short week. They will be looking for revenge following a 21-12 loss at the Bills on Week #1.

New York has not had many bad games this year, despite a 3-5 record. After riding a 3-game winning streak, they have now lost their past three but none of them was a shameful performance. They lost 24-17 to New England (after leading 14-0). They lost 31-28 to Miami after leading 28-14 through three quarters. And they lost 25-20 to the Falcons last week. All of these games were close.

We are observing a reverse line movement in this game, as the line dropped from 3.5 to 3 despite 77% of spread bets and 57% of money line bets going on Buffalo. I like it.

PICK #3: Dallas Cowboys +1 vs Kansas City Chiefs

Most gamblers are taking the Chiefs in this game, as a little more than 60% of bets have gone their way. However, the Cowboys will certainly put an all-out performance, trying to avoid losing a third straight game at home (after getting beaten by the Rams and the Packers at the AT&T Stadium).

Also, the Chiefs have had less time to game plan for the Cowboys since they were playing Monday night. This is also a non-conference road game for them with less playoff implications, although facing Dallas is always an interesting matchup.

My statistical models have the Cowboys as 2.2-point favorites, so I’ll take them at +1 point (or at positive money with the money line).

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Thanks a lot for your support and enjoy the games!

Professor MJ