15:53

We will be keeping this blog open for some time yet to monitor further Brexit developments.

But here is tonight’s main story.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has confirmed that the UK and the EU have failed to reach a deal today on the Brexit withdrawal agreement. His announcement, which came after an unscheduled meeting with Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, means that there is now considerable doubt over whether this week’s EU summit will wrap up the Irish backstop aspect of Brexit, something EU leaders had hoped to agree on Thursday ahead of a possible summit in November that would conclude the entire pre-Brexit negotiation. Here is the full version from Daniel Boffey, Jennifer Rankin and Rajeev Syal.

Brexit: May's domestic vulnerability leaves talks on knife-edge Read more

And here are some of the Brexit developments around earlier.

David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, has used an article in the Sunday Times (paywall) to urge cabinet ministers to over-rule Theresa May and veto her proposed Brexit plan. Davis resigned because he was opposed to the Chequers proposals, which would keep the UK effectively in the single market for goods, and bound by the EU rulebook for these items. But in this article he focused most of his criticism on May’s willingness to keep the UK in the customs union for an indefinite period, as part of the Irish backstop, and on reports that May could extend the 21-month transition. He said:

The cabinet committee that governs EU negotiations has barely met since July. Instead, the decisions seem to have been taken by an ad hoc group. Other cabinet members have been excluded from the decisions and, in some cases, even the briefings. This is one of the most fundamental decisions that government has taken in modern times. It is time for cabinet members to exert their collective authority. This week the authority of our constitution is on the line. The EU has already offered us a Canada-style, zero-tariffs trade agreement, and Donald Tusk, president of the council, reinforced that offer last week. A good deal is clearly within our grasp. We must reset our negotiating strategy immediately and deliver a Brexit that meets the demands of the referendum and the interests of the British people.

The article came amid reports that some Brexiters want to install Davis as an interim leader to replace May. Nadine Dorries explicitly backed the idea on Twitter.

Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) This is a significant intervention from DD. His position has always been, change the policy, not the PM. Getting May out and him becoming an interim leader may be the only way to deliver #Brexit and FTA



Cabinet mutiny threatens to kill PM’s Brexithttps://t.co/kK9LOshNNU

Another hardline Tory Brexiter, Andrea Jenkyns, said it would be better for the UK to “go down fighting” than to give in to the demands of Brussels.

Andrea Jenkyns MP #StandUp4Brexit (@andreajenkyns) It is better to go down fighting and honouring the democratic decision of our British people. Then to be long remembered for waving a white flag and surrendering to EU demands. All Brexiteers in Gov and on the backbenches its time to #StandUp4Brexit and finally #ChuckChequers.

(Jenkyns’ comment is not particularly significant in itself, but as an insight into one corner of the Brexiter mindset, it is fascinating. It is WW2 and 1940 all over again. There’s a whole book to be written about Brexit and the impact of the war on British national identity. Other countries lost and moved on. Arguably, we won and didn’t.)



The Sunday Times has claimed that up to 44 letters have now been sent to the chairman of the Conservative backbench 1922 committee from Tory MPs demanding a vote of no confidence in May. If the chair, Sir Graham Brady, gets 48 letters, he has to call a vote.

The Sunday Times has claimed that at least four cabinet ministers - Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and David Mundell - are threatening to resign because they view the Irish backstop plan that May is close to agreeing as unacceptable. The Sunday Telegraph says at least 10 cabinet ministers would oppose the backstop plan, that would effectively keep the UK in the customs union, unless it contains a mechanism for the UK to extract itself. The EU wants any backstop to apply indefinitely, so long as it is needed to avoid a hard border in Ireland.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has said that any plan to keep the UK effectively in the customs union as part of the Irish backstop would be “temporary and time limited.” But, when asked on the Andrew Marr Show if there would be a date, he said: “There are different ways to ensure that something is time limited.” He suggested there could be conditions for “the point at the which arrangements come to an end”. Asked if there would be a “break” clause, allowing the UK to opt out when it wanted, he replied:

There are different ways that you can make sure that something is credibly time limited and that’s what I want to see.

Sixty three Conservative MPs have signed a European Research Group letter to Philip Hammond, the chancellor, urging him to release details of how the Treasury forecasts the economic impact of various Brexit options. The letter, published in the Sunday Telegraph (paywall), says:

The cross-Whitehall Brexit analysis leaked to the news website Buzzfeed early this year and subsequently ‘published’ in the form of 24 PowerPoint slides, forecasts a 7.7 per cent hit to GDP under a World Trade Deal under WTO rules and a 4.8 per cent contraction under Canada Plus. While all such forecasts are only indicators of orders of magnitude and general direction, independent private sector forecasts and those of Whitehall are wildly far apart, many of which forecast a positive impact on GDP. Such differences have huge consequences for Brexit strategy and the long-term trajectory of future public expenditure, taxation, and borrowing.

The ERG, which is pushing for a harder Brexit, does not say in the letter which independent forecasters think Brexit will be good for the economy. Most economic organisations that have produced forecasts agree with the Treasury that its effect will be negative.

Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, and David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, have said they will resign if May backs a Brexit deal that involves new border controls being imposed down the Irish Sea. (See 6.39pm.)

The Labour MP Caroline Flint has said that some of her colleagues would vote to support a “reasonable” Brexit deal. It is thought the party will whip its MPs to vote against the deal May brings back from Brussels. But, in an interview with Sky, when asked about claims around 30 Labour MPs might vote with the government in favour of such a deal, Flint said:

I think if a reasonable deal is on the table the question for some of my Labour colleagues is ‘why wouldn’t you support a deal, why would you stand along [with] Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg who want us to crash out without a deal?’

The Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman thinks this is significant.

Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) This is the game now. The outcome of everything depends on how many Labour MPs think like Caroline Flint https://t.co/f7j6KMmEoH

Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, has said that Labour MPs would not back a deal that amounted to “a bridge to nowhere”. In a BBC interview she said:

We said we wanted a meaningful vote and we can’t see why we should have, on the one hand Theresa May’s nonsense and on the other hand a no deal, because that’s what they’re threatening us with. If she comes back with something that’s just a fudge she’s cooked up with Brussels ... we’re not voting for something that’s essentially a bridge to nowhere.

That’s all from me for tonight.

My colleague Patrick Greenfield is now taking over.