Oct 8, 2014

BEIRUT — The spillover from the Syrian civil war has finally entered the combat phase in Lebanon. The situation is no longer one of isolated border clashes or the Syrian crisis agitating internal strife. On Oct. 5, Jabhat al-Nusra opened a new chapter in the fight, attacking posts controlled by Hezbollah in Lebanese territory. According to media reports, at least eight Hezbollah fighters died in the battles, and Jabhat al-Nusra gained temporary control of a major post near the town of Brital, a Hezbollah stronghold in the Bekaa Valley.

Al-Monitor reported in early September on Hezbollah’s preparations to confront the Islamic State (IS) and Jabhat al-Nusra in Lebanon. That preparation is now being tested, and the resulting suffering could potentially envelope the country, which is already in the midst of a complicated crisis involving internal political differences and regional rivalries in addition to the Syrian crisis. Having survived 15 years of bloody war between 1975 and 1990, this tiny country might be heading toward an even bloodier encounter that reignites simmering sectarian tensions that have been lingering for years under the cover of local consensuses and regional agreements aimed at keeping Lebanon's fragile security under some sort of control.

“There is no chance that anyone can turn the clock back,” said an official Lebanese security source who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “It’s hard to say it, but the fact is these events are far bigger than the Lebanese state’s capabilities. The army is paralyzed. Politicians are feeble. The state is anything but a state. [There has been] no president for almost five months. The Cabinet is in a state of caretaking and the parliament on an extended term. It’s a miracle life goes on.”

This was the first time this source has openly expressed his despair, but these are unpleasant facts that every Lebanese admits regardless of their differences. Yet, it's even harder to find one among them with a keenness to let go of the chronic feelings of hostility toward those on the opposing side. Hezbollah sees itself as the defender of Lebanese territory, while its political rival, the March 14 Coalition, views the Shiite organization's defensive actions as unacceptable. Clearly, there is lack of common ground, even when it comes to adopting a strategy under such dire circumstances.

A source close to Hezbollah told Al-Monitor, “The latest events are an attempt by the extremists to change the rules of the game. They are looking to transfer the battle from Syria into Lebanon.” He added, “This is additional proof that these people have a broader strategy in the region. They don’t just want to topple the Syrian government for democracy's sake, rather it’s an ideologically driven war aimed at turning the whole region into a war zone. Hezbollah isn’t going to let such an agenda past the Lebanese borders, even if it costs them hundreds of lives.”