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The next federal election won’t be fought over immigration and refugees, despite their temptation as targets for your friendly neighbourhood populists. No, the election in 2019 will be about everything but, because other than one splinter party, there’s little to gain from attacking immigration.

That exception is Maxime Bernier, the culture front’s loud but short range noise machine. But even Bernier and his People’s Party of Canada need more than noise about immigration if they’re to get anyone elected.

Still, some people really want Election 2019 to be fought over how best to keep foreigners away. They’re convinced Canada is allowing in too many of the wrong kind of people.

Immigration’s opponents did get fresh energy from information released last week showing the cost of processing irregular border crossings is running over $300 million a year, just for the federal government. Provinces are also paying millions.

And migration, border security, refugees and asylum-seeking are genuine issues. But they tend to stir nasty rhetoric, so far mostly to be found in the cesspool of social media. Anyone trying it above ground is playing with fire.

A recent poll from the Environics Institute suggests that most Canadians maintain benevolent views of both immigration and diversity.

“A majority of Canadians (58 per cent) say they do not believe that immigration levels are too high,” Environics reported in its fall survey. Three out of four agreed that “the overall impact of immigration on the Canadian economy has been positive.”

The survey turned up only five per cent who named immigration and refugees as the most important issues facing the country, up one percentage point over the past 18 months. The economy, the environment, climate change, health care and the Trudeau government’s record all rate higher in the minds of voters.

Even among Conservative voters, only a tiny minority, six per cent, put immigration at the top of the political issues list for 2019. That might be because anti-immigrant talk blew up in their faces in 2015, when the Conservatives disastrously made “barbaric cultural practices” a priority campaign issue.

But party members do want it discussed, especially as it relates to refugees and asylum claims. Environics suggests 52 per cent of Conservatives think Canada accepts too many, and about six in 10 believe most refugee claims are illegitimate.

It was also a grassroots issue at the Conservatives’ fall convention, leaving party leader Andrew Scheer to handle the issue with fireproof mitts and the capable MP Michelle Rempel to speak on it day to day as the party’s immigration critic.

The Conservatives have to be careful because “70 per cent of Conservatives think too many immigrants are failing to adopt ‘Canadian values,’ ” Environics reported. The relevant figure in the Bernier party is 73 per cent.

So if somebody actually was calling out for an anti-immigration hero — which they aren’t, but if they were — Bernier would be their white knight. He’ll say what the big-C Conservatives won’t: there are too many foreigners coming across the border and it’s time to stop them.

Bernier, whose party is at one per cent support in the polls, also wants immigrants to adopt Canadian values, although it’s not clear who gets to define the values. Perhaps Bernier will sort that out when he becomes prime minister.

For populists, migration and immigration are simple issues because populists have simple solutions for every problem: hire more guards, punish more refugees, build a wall.

For everyone else, especially political parties in the market for votes, it’s a tough question because everyone has their own idea of what constitutes Canadian values. It’s likely mine don’t exactly match yours, so how are the parties supposed to figure it out?

Canada has a long history of accepting people who need help. It’s not a perfect record, but it’s an honourable one and a record that shouldn’t be cast away for the sake of partisan politics.

Dan Leger is a freelance journalist in Halifax.