It's the economic puzzle that could hold the key to the political fortunes of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull this year.

For 15 months now, the economy has piled on jobs at an almost unprecedented rate.

That's normally a recipe for workers at all income levels to get a decent pay rise or two.

But that hasn't happened this time around, a fact that has economists scratching their heads and politicians scrambling to explain what they're going to do about it.

Mr Turnbull's solution? Patience.

"The laws of supply and demand have not been suspended," Mr Turnbull assured workers this week.

"Wages growth will come, because a stronger economy results in more investment, more jobs and more intense competition between employers for workers."

But workers' patience will be tested if Australia's economic competitors are any guide.

The US unemployment rate is 4.1 per cent, the lowest in 17 years and a level regarded by economists as "full employment".

It's been under 5 per cent since this time last year.

Yet, real wage growth is modest to say the least, year-on-year between October 2016 and October last year, hourly wages only increased by 1 per cent more than inflation.

As the International Labour Organisation noted this week, that's pretty unusual for an economy that's been creating 2 million jobs a year for the last seven years.

American economy not an anomaly

Wages growth has picked up in recent months, but only once the unemployment rate hit that magical 4.1 per cent number late last year.

EBA pay rises fall to a fresh record low of just 2.2 per cent per annum. ( Supplied: UBS )

Australia's unemployment rate, by contrast, is at 5.5 per cent, roughly where it's been since May last year.

In other words there's plenty of room — 1.4 percentage points to be exact — for it to fall before the Prime Minister's prediction of wage competition comes true.

The American economy is not an anomaly.

Germany's also been experiencing slow wage growth despite a surging jobs market, ditto Canada and Britain.

Like them, the Australian economy has been creating plenty of jobs of late: a record 400,000 were added last year (the vast majority full-time jobs at that).

Yet, that did nothing to jolt wages growth which has been stuck in neutral for five years or so.

Why has wages growth stagnated?

That's an easy question with a complex answer.

Bill Shorten in his year-opening speech this week blamed the Coalition for making it too easy for bosses to deny workers wage rises.

Unions are under attack, he said, the minimum wage was too low and bosses were cancelling bargains with their workers with impunity (that last point is hotly contested by employer groups).

But independent observers say the answer is more complex.

Economist Saul Eslake says profound changes in the global economy are behind the wages story.

Decades of globalisation means competition from low-paid workers in developing countries keep manufacturing wages low in advanced economies.

Many of those economies have responded by moving into more service-based industries, which historically have less well organised workforces.

The well-publicised gender pay gap is having a profound effect, especially with record numbers of women in the workforce.

And that's to say nothing of the automation revolution, with workers increasingly competing not just with their fellow human beings but robots and software as well.

Why is all this important?

From workers' point of view the answer is obvious, more money in the back pocket eases the pressure on the family budget.

From the Government's point of view, wages could be an election decider.

The decent economic growth and strong job creation won't mean much if the majority of workers don't feel better off.

If Mr Turnbull's assurances this week that his economic plan is working is to have any resonance on the ground, voters need to see it when they look at their bank balance.

So far, by and large they haven't.

In fact when they factor in sharply rising power costs they feel worse off, not better.

The wages story helps explain why when the Government delivered the lowest increase in private health insurance premiums in 17 years earlier this month, there were still howls of outrage about the extra $200 a year the average family would pay.

Low wage growth, in other words, undercuts just about every positive economic message the Government could hope to prosecute.

Could that be the reason that despite a creditable set of macro-economic figures since Mr Turnbull took over as Prime Minister that he still trails in the polls?

Sure last year's citizenship saga and questions about his leadership and political values didn't help.

Still, it's a question worth considering.