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Almost all top NHL d-men break in between ages 18 and 23

Why do I say this?

By looking at the age at which Top 4 NHL d-men in the league this year established themsleves as NHLers.

Of the 124 top d-men in the NHL this past year (that’s four d-men per team and based on time-on-ice per game), 76 of them established themselves as NHLers at 22 years of age or younger. I deem a player to have established himself in the year he plays more NHL games than minor pro games. He might not be a Top 4 d-man right away, but he earns a regular spot at least as a third-pairing NHL d-man.

True talent most often shows itself fast and young at the pro level.

Indeed, 11 of the 124 Top 4 d-men broke in as 18 year olds, players like Drew Doughty, Seth Jones and Viktor Hedman.

Another 20 broke in as 19-year-olds, this group including Zack Werenski, Jacob Trouba, Morgan Rielly and Miro Heiskanenen.

Twenty-four established themselves as 20-year-olds, including Ryan Suter, Kris Letang and John Carlson.

Twenty-one were in at 21, including Roman Josi, Alex Edler and Josh Morrissey.

Twenty-four broke in at 22, skaters such as John Klingberg, Esa Lindell, Duncan Keith and Tyson Barrie.

Nineteen broke in at age 23, including Mattias Ekholm, Jeff Petry, and Brandon Mountour.

Then came a huge drop off, with six establishing themselves as NHLers at age 24, four at 25, zero at 26 and 27, and one at age 28, Deryk Engelland of Las Vegas.

When it comes to playing regular season minor pro games, 73 of them played less than 60 games in the minors, 34 played 61-to-120 games, 14 played 121-to-200 games, and only three played more than 200 minor league games.

Lagesson has already played 67 games in his one AHL season, Bear has played 89 in two seasons, and Jones 111. Compared to the average Top 4 d-man in the NHL, Lagesson, Bear and Jones have already played more minor pro games than the most of those players. In other words, they’re heading into over-ripe territory.

Can they pluck an NHL job? The story will be told this spring and fall.

It’s also worth noting that for there to be room in Bakersfield next year for young d-men like Evan Bouchard and Dmitri Samorukov to begin their own ripening processes, not all of Lagesson, Bear and Jones can be there. Indeed, Bouchard has now just been sent to Bakersfield and should see playoff action. The pressure from below is already bubbling up.

My bet is that two of them will make the Oilers as the team’s 6th and 7th d-men and the other one will be traded. And maybe in 2020-21, we’ll see one of them in a Top 4 role on the Oilers.