the "food crisis" issue has been popping up more regularly, and it is not part of my imagination

In the past months, I have been posting regularly about the global food crisis:Those of you who have been following this blog for a while know I work for a humanitarian agency, so automatically my view of news articles is biased: scanning news bulletins I am rather sensitive to possible lurking crisis, be it armed conflicts, natural disasters or plain economic issues that could cause humanitarian problems. Plus of course, this is our job, this is what we do for a living: trying to spot, mitigate and react to humanitarian crisis in the making or unfolding.On top of this, working for aaid agency, the issue of raisingprices, the dilemma of biofuel production versusproduction, changing weather patterns decreasing theproduction are automatically issues which catch my eyes faster.So I have been asking myself the question: "Is the global food crisis really that big an issue, or is it blown out of proportion by the media, amplified by my built-in sensitivity to food aid issues?".Over the past weeks, I have been scanning the media rigorously. A few months ago, I set up a Pageflakes newsfeed tool which takes RSS feeds from about 100 news sources: Western and non-Western media, citizen journalism and social bookmarking sites. My Pageflakes tool gives me, in three screens, at a glance, an overview of ten news posts per news site, resulting in about 1,000 article headlines which are automatically updated as new headlines are released.Scanning those articles, I can state objectively: The worrying factor is also a trend I have seen: Starting from "early warning" signs from humanitarian agencies, more and more reports come up about food riots in different countries, to -and that is what is really worrying me- articles that predict the potential global food supply shortages or inaccessibility of food (due to the sharply inflated prices), might lead governments to act in a drastic way.Government steps being taken are to close their borders for food exports, containing food prices by extensive subsidies, or cancelling these due to the long term unsustainability, and bilateral agreements between countries to 'ensure a secure food supply'... Worrying. Reminds me of the same measures countries take to secure the supply of oil resources.Now the apotheose of it all, and what causes me nightmares is the more frequent recurring link being made between food shortages (and all the related issues like global warming decreasing food production, biofuel consuming food, etc..), security and armed conflicts. And it not merely in titles like " Food Fights ", but also in contents. Some examples:

And then you might think I am going completely nutter to quote Nostradamus: "Famine and fighting will set in. Countries will fight with each other over surplus food: India and China will march to seize the corn and wheat fields of Russia and eastern Europe."



So tell me: am I a doomsday preacher or are we really heading for a period of armed conflicts, not as part of the "War on Terror", or the "War for Oil", but a "War for Food"?



Update April 23 2008:

- "The World Bank now believes that some 33 countries are in danger of being destabilised by food price inflation" (Article)

- "Climate change could cause global conflicts as large as the two world wars but lasting for centuries unless the problem is controlled, a leading defence think tank has warned." (Article)



Pictures courtesy Daniel Garcia (AFP-Getty Images) and WFP