Bengaluru: The Karnataka elections on Saturday witnessed the highest voter turnout at 72.13%, beating the 1978 record of 71.90% and the 2013 tally of 71.45%.

A higher turnout is often seen as a vote for change, but exit polls have sent out mixed signals. Of the five major Karnataka exit polls released on Saturday, only one gives a simple majority, in its higher range, to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—the main opposition party—while three have predicted a hung assembly. Only one predicted a Congress majority.

The exit polls added more suspense to the fiercely contested Karnataka elections, the results of which will be announced on Tuesday.

Congress is looking to retain power in Karnataka and revive its sagging fortunes nationally, while the BJP is trying to wrest the state out of opposition hands and open an entry to south Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. For the Janata Dal (Secular), or JDS, a favourable verdict would establish its stature as a regional kingmaker.

“Exit opinion polls are entertainment for the next two days. Relying on poll of polls is like a person who can’t swim crossing a river on foot relying on a statistician who told him the average depth of the river is 4 feet. Please note average of 6+4+2 is 4. At 6 feet you drown!" Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah tweeted, exuding confidence that his party will return to power—a feat last achieved in 1985.

The other two chief ministerial candidates B.S. Yeddyurappa and H.D. Kumaraswamy from the BJP and JDS respectively, too claimed they would win the elections.

Sudhir Krishnaswamy, political analyst and faculty at the Azim Premji University raised doubts on the findings of Karnataka exit polls as they had not shared their sample size, stratification, method of administration, questions posed or how it was recorded.

“In Karnataka, we’ve historically seen that a lower voter turnout results in the incumbent government being thrown out. It appears that incumbents are unable to turn out their voters who are either unconvinced or complacent. I think this time the incumbent has put in strenuous efforts to turn out the voters and the results may reflect that," Krishnaswamy said.

Through most of Karnataka’s history, the electorate chose to reject the ruling government, irrespective of the voter turnout. Karnataka polled 71.45% in 2013 which was considered to be a vote against the five-year preceding rule of the BJP, that saw three chief ministers take turns to rule the state in the backdrop of frequent corruption allegations.

However, in 2008, Karnataka saw a statewide polling of 64.68% in which the electorate voted to give the BJP 110 out of the 224 seats, voting in a one-party government as against two successive coalitions (Congress-JDS and JDS-BJP) from 2004-2008.

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