By James Rowe 3 years ago

The volatility of the NRL makes it one of the hardest competitions to tip, with the salary cap doing a solid job of throwing up unexpected results.

Still, there are clubs that manage to either be consistently good - think Melbourne Storm in the 'Big 3' era - or, well, more like a roller-coaster.

An enterprising Reddit user who's big on NRL stats, Tunza , has captured the wins and losses throughout the season of the 16 clubs and found the average difference in wins from one season to the next to measure volatility.

A final figure was calculated "as the average change in wins" between seasons. The higher the number, the more likely the win total goes up and down like a yo-yo. A low volatility isn't always a good thing - sometimes that just indicates consistently average. Lowest Volatility

We'll start with the three clubs with lowest volatility:

16th - Wests Tigers - 2.22 (avg. change in wins)

The merger club have had their ups and downs - their best years from the Benji Marshall era countered by early 2000s doldrums, the rise of Tim Sheens, the fall of Tim Sheens, and recent malaise hoping to be turned around with new coach Ivan Clearly and the return of Marshall.

(Reddit)

It's the first time the Tigers have been on the bottom of the ladder - they haven't held a wooden spoon in the NRL era.

15th - St George Illawarra Dragons - 2.32

This once is deceptive as while the Dragons have been up and down, they've managed to maintain a pretty good average wins ratio. They peaked with Wayne Bennett, they fell just after. It's been a constant rise and fall, but are back to being right on average in 2017.

14th - Melbourne Storm 2.35

This is the lowest the Storm have been on a table since the turmoil post-salary cap. The formula doesn't acknowledge stripped premierships from salary-cap rorts so keep that in mind. But the Storm have been the team to beat for years, and their consistent performances at the top prove it. Another feather in the cap for coach Bellamy.

Highest Volatility - top three

These three clubs have the highest volatility - the most ups and downs between seasons.

3rd - Cronulla Sharks - 4.16

Rocks one year, diamonds the next. Financial woes, ASADA investigations, a minor premiership and a grand final win. The Sharks have done it all and the volatility ranking proves there's never a dull moment in Sutherland shire.

2nd - Sydney Roosters - 4.68

Premierships, wooden spoons, runners-up, injury decimated seasons, and all within a few seasons. The Roosters were highly consistent until the season Brad Fittler retired. Since then - thanks in part to his coaching - the side have been mercurial, maddening, and amazing at times.





1st - Canterbury Bulldogs - 4.89

Ouch! The most volatile club and truly the biggest roller-coaster ride for fans and for the team themselves. It's been hard yakka for Bulldogs fans who can never be comfy from one season to the next - although there's always hope for the next year if it's been a poor season. Maybe there's fresh hope for new coach Dean Pay?

Also, take a look at the comparison between the Bulldogs and Roosters - if one is up, the other is down:

(Reddit)

Here's the full list:

Rank Team Volatility 1 Canterbury Bulldogs 4.89 2 Sydney Roosters 4.68 3 Cronulla Sharks 4.16 4 Canberra Raiders 4.11 5 Penrith Panthers 3.63 6 North Queensland Cowboys 3.58 7 New Zealand Warriors 3.31 8 Parramatta Eels 3.21 9 Brisbane Broncos 3.16 10 South Sydney 3.00 11 Gold Coast Titans 2.90 12 Newcastle Knights 2.89 13 Manly Sea Eagles 2.81 14 Melbourne Storm 2.47 15 St George Illawarra Dragons 2.44 16 Wests Tigers 2.35

(Credit: Tunza/Reddit)