2019-12-07 2018-06-19 Analysis for ETHUSD: Fellowship of Triangles 19.06.2018 Mikhail Hypov 2019-12-072018-06-19

Updated forecast for ETHUSD. When to buy Ethereum? What is the most popular altcoin promising?

In this post, I applied the following tools: candlestick analysis, all-round market view, market balance level, oscillators, trading volume, trend line.

Dear friends,

Today, I’m going to make a forecast for Ethereum.

My last forecast for ETHUSD was two weeks ago, and so, to update the scenario, let’s revise the previous price predictions.

Two weeks ago, like most cryptocurrencies, Ethereum was inside the equilateral triangle. There were positive expectations for Ethereum, due to the strong support and the bullish state of the last closed weekly candle.

Unfortunately, the expectations haven’t been met; Ethereum didn’t break out the triangle from below.

Instead of that, it broke out the trend line and entered the support zone, which I marked with green.

It is clear from the chart above that the support zone was identified correctly. The attempts to press Ethereum lower met bulls’ strong resistance, who were buying with large volumes; it is a good sign.

To find out what will happen to Ethereum next, let’s analyze all timeframes and make all-round market view.

There is the monthly timeframe in the chart above.

Let’s update Keltner channel's borders for a start. The top level is slightly up, at 546 USD. The channel's centre is at about 338 USD.

You see, in the current month, the May’s low was broken through, which is, in general, a bearish sign. The next support level in the monthly timeframe is at around April’s low, 358 USD.

In general, the situation looks neutral, with a slight decline. The situation in the monthly timeframe still suggests trading flat.

There is the weekly timeframe in the chart above, where the last week’s low broke through Keltner channel's border, followed by the price rebound with increasing volume.

Keltner channel's borders in the weekly timeframe are also quite strong support and resistance levels. To get them to look different from the monthly ones, I marked these levels with purple dots.

The check point of vertical volume indicator is also a kind of the market strength level, which should also be taken into account. I marked it with the red line.

If we study the oscillators, we’ll see they are in the bearish zone in the weekly charts; so, we can suggest a weak bearish trend or trading flat.

So, the weekly chart looks more bullish than the monthly one; though, it still sends no reversal signals. Therefore, the most likely scenario is trading flat during the current week.

In the daily timeframe, the situation is like this:

MCAD indicates a clear bullish divergence, and RSI stochastic is moving towards the channel's top borders.

In general, there are strong borders form both sides. The bottom one is the strong support level at 467 USD, the top one is level 546 USD.

Considering the sideways trend, suggested in the weekly timeframe, in the daily chart, we can expect the fractal model repetition with the retest of level 546 USD and the price correction towards Keltner channel's bottom border.

In 4-hour chart above, we see the overbought that can result in a slight correction. But, considering the impulse rise on June 14 and June 18, we can expect another bullish attack, pushing the price up to about 546 USD during the period between June 20 and June 30.

If we match this forecast to the previous scenario patterns, we’ll see that everything is going on inside the green support zone, which is marked as the big traders’ defense zone.

In general, this situation fits in the forecast I suggested for BTC yesterday. Bitcoin featured the first bullish attack on big volumes. According to the retrospective, manipulators usually attack in three waves, less frequently – in five. Anyway, I expect Bitcoin slight rollback to be followed by another pump wave, aiming to break out level 7000 USD.

Summary:

Considering all the above, I expect consolidation within the green triangle.

The monthly and the weekly timeframes suggest the trend is fading out and general volatility is getting lower.

The market will hardly grow stronger until July.

Then, the ticker will exit the triangle and breaks through the trend line that stops bulls from above.

Currently, a good price zone to buy Ethereum is between 500 USD and 450 USD.

From a fundamental point of view, the soonest rise up to 546 USD can be supported by DAPPCON conference in Berlin, scheduled for June 19 and 20. It will be fully devoted to the development of Ethereum-based decentralized applications.

I’ll note as a reference that the number of Ethereum developers is 30 times more than that of its nearest rival, and is now over 50,000 people.

The conference organizer is Gnosis, one of the first Dapp, launched on Ethereum blockchain; therefore, I recommend taking this token into account.

Key support levels for the next two weeks:

492 is highly likely to be touched;

467 is likely to be touched;

The price is unlikely to move lower than 440.

Key resistance levels for the next two weeks:

546 – is likely to be touched;

617 is hardly likely to be touched;

The price is unlikely to move higher than 617.

I wish you good luck and good profits!

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Ask me questions and comment below. I’ll be glad to answer your questions and give necessary explanations.

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Price chart of ETHUSD in real time mode

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