“I’ve come to covet a subscription slot in Buffalo because I know we’re in profit before they have begun selling single tickets,” Mr. Seller said.

Nowhere have so-called road presenters like Mr. Nocciolino and Mr. Conte become more visible tastemakers than during the Tony Awards competition each May and June. About 15 percent of Tony voters are from “the road,” and they are courted heavily by nominees and producers during parties in New York each spring. In recent voting for the best-musical Tony, which is the one award seen as influencing ticket sales, some theater executives believe that votes from road presenters helped “Billy Elliot” prevail over “Next to Normal” in 2009, and “Memphis” over “Fela” in 2010, because the two winners were likely to have big tours — and a best-musical Tony is seen as helping sell tickets on the road.

Several of these road presenters said in interviews that touring potential was a factor in their Tony votes, but noted that they voted chiefly on artistic merit.

“I’m a human being, so to say how a show would play in Cleveland is not a factor in Tony voting would not be true,” said Gina Vernaci, vice president of theatricals at Cleveland PlayhouseSquare, another prime destination for tours. “But Cleveland wants quality shows, artistically compelling shows, enjoyable shows, as much as New Yorkers.”

Mr. Conte, a former banker in Buffalo and Shea’s board member who became president of the theater in 2000, recalled admiring the Broadway show “Spring Awakening” but voted for “Mary Poppins” instead for best musical that year. He said “the tough love story,” flashes of nudity, and dark themes of “Spring Awakening” were “not my thing,” and he also did not envision the show as appealing to his subscribers. “Spring Awakening” went on to win the Tony for best musical; the show’s national tour had a brief run at the University at Buffalo, but not at Shea’s.

“We know our territory here,” Mr. Conte said. “We know that the audience is on the conservative side. When I vote on the Tonys and book shows, I’m representing my audience.”

After years as a movie palace, Shea’s was nearly torn down in the 1970s because of its owner’s business problems, but squatters occupied the theater and refused to leave. Now, with more than 250 performances each year, the theater stands as a majestic example of Spanish and French Baroque design as well as one of the busiest centers of life in a downtown dotted with vacant storefronts.