The prices of American farm products are falling, defying predictions that the Trump administration’s policies would drive up food prices.

The September Prices Received Index (Agricultural Production) decreased 1.5 percent from a month ago, the Department of Agriculture said in a report Tuesday. Compared with a year ago, the prices of agricultural products are down 4.6 percent. In August, prices fell 2.2 percent.

The September decline is not due to Chinese tariffs on soy. The price of a bushel of soybeans actually rose 18 cents in September, to $8.77 a bushel. Compared with a year ago, soy prices are down 58 cents–which is very likely due to the retaliatory tariffs.

Farm prices are a leading indicator of food price changes. The decline in farm prices indicates that predictions that the Trump administration’s trade policies would raise the prices of groceries for consumers were offbase.

As Breitbart reported, these predictions were widespread:

“You could soon pay more for worse food. Thanks, Donald Trump,” blared a Washington Post headline on December 6. “A Donald Trump presidency could lead to food shortage in the U.S.,” an article on Quartz declared. “Your wine and food prices are going to rise when Donald Trump takes office,” a piece on MarketWatch warned. The Wall Street Journal‘s Justin Lahart was characteristically more sober and more thoughtful in his assessment. No screaming about food shortages or declarations that food prices were definitely headed up. But even Lahart’s March 15 column warned of a “food pinch.”