The saffron party managed to survive but failed to cross psychologically important 100 seats benchmark in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly.

Madhya Pradesh by-elections result: When the Congress finished second in last year’s Gujarat Assembly elections, the party proudly claimed a “moral” victory over BJP. The Congress had some reasons to cheer. Not just the Congress increased its seat share in Gujarat Assembly but even managed to scare the ruling BJP. The saffron party managed to survive but failed to cross psychologically important 100 seats benchmark in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly. Interestingly, an occasion to claim a “moral” victory has arrived for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh.

Even as the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress is celebrating wins in Mungaoli and Kolaras by-elections in Madhya Pradesh, the party has got enough reasons to be wary of the ruling BJP in the state. More so because the Congress wishes to dethrone CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan in the upcoming Assembly elections that may be held in November-December this year.

You may be wondering as to why should the Congress worry if it has already won both seats in the bypolls that concluded yesterday with the announcement of results. Numbers say an interesting story.

Unlike the Rajasthan by-elections where Congress snatched two Lok Sabha and an Assembly seat from the BJP this year, the story is different in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress has managed to retain both Kolaras and Mungaoli Assembly seats but the victory margin is a cause of worry for the Grand Old Party.

In Mungaoli, the Congress won with 70,808 votes while the BJP finshed second with 68685 votes. Victory margin of the Congress was almost equal to the number of NOTA votes (2253), as per the Election Commission. Compare this margin to the 2013 assembly election results when the Congress had won Mungaoli by a margin of over 20,000 votes. There were also 11 independent and other parties’ candidates who gobbled up crucial votes ranging from 114 to 1351.

In Kolaras, the victory margin for the Congress was bigger but certainly not as comfortable as it was in 2013. The Congress polled 82523 votes, while the BJP finished second with 74437 votes, 8086 votes behind the Grand Old Party. There were also 20 independent and other parties’ candidates who got votes ranging from 231 to 1791. As many as 756 NOTA votes were also polled. In the last Assembly elections, the Congress had won Kolaras constituency by a margin of 24,953 votes.

One of the most interesting points to note about Kolaras by-election this year was the number of independent candidates whose names were similar to the winning Congress nominee Mahendra-Ramsingh Yadav. Theere were six “independent” Mahendra Singh Yadavs in the fray who took away crucial votes. The story was not much different for the BJP as well. There were three independent candidates whose names started with ‘Devendra’ like the BJP nominee Devendra Kumar Jain.

The Madhya Pradesh by-elections in Kolaras and Mungaoli were dubbed as a semifinal before the Assembly polls between Congress’ Jyotiraditya Scindia and state CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

Drawing from Congress’ Gujarat election result analogy, Chouhan can claim a “moral” victory in both seats for at least two reasons:

First, a by-election is generally won by the party which has previously been victorious in the constituency. When the opposition wins, it is seen as a vote of no-confidence against the ruling party. It happened in Rajasthan by-elections this year when BJP emerged as a loser despite being the ruling party in the three constituencies. However, this was not the case in Madhya Pradesh. Congress was the ruling party in both Mungaoli and Kolaras seats and it managed to retain them.

Second, both Mungaoli and Kolaras seats fall under the Guna Parliamentary constituency, a stronghold of Congress leader Scindia. The fact BJP has managed to reduce the victory margins in five years, despite being the ruling party of the state, must give the Congress much food for thought.