Labor leads Coalition on head-to-head contest, but gap has not been so close since November 2016

Voters are more attracted to Bill Shorten’s tax and economic plans than Malcolm Turnbull’s but the contest between the major parties appears to be tightening, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

The new survey of 1,025 voters found 45% of the sample backed Shorten’s tax plan outlined in budget week compared with 33% supporting the Coalition’s seven-year income tax package.

Similarly, 44% of the sample supported Labor’s approach increasing spending on health and education while giving a tax cut to low and middle-income earners, with 38% supporting the Coalition’s approach, which is to give both companies and workers a tax cut.

But the gap between the major parties has narrowed over the past fortnight on the two-party preferred measure. Labor still leads the Turnbull government on the head-to-head contest, but on 51% to 49%, which is the first time the gap has been that close since November 2016.

Last week, Labor was ahead of the Coalition 52% to 48%, and the week before that Labor was ahead 53% to 47%, which was the same result as the two previous fortnightly surveys. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

The mixed result, with voters rating Labor’s policy alternative but boosting the political standing of the Coalition, comes as the Speaker, Tony Smith, confirmed on Monday he had not yet set a date for the “super Saturday” of byelections triggered by the high court’s decision in the Katy Gallagher case because he was consulting with the electoral commissioner over processes to ensure candidates comply with the constitutional requirements on dual citizenship.

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Pressed by Labor to explain the delay in comparison to previous byelections triggered by the dual citizenship fiasco, Smith told parliament the consultation with the electoral commissioner and major party leaders was necessary. He said he hoped to be in a position to provide more guidance later in the week.

The Speaker’s interim statement means the critical contests can’t be scheduled for 23 June, meaning they will likely be held on the last weekend in June or the first weekend in July.

The timing puts the results after federal parliament has risen for the winter recess, thereby sparing the major party leaders any negative consequences for poor performance from their colleagues. The looming mini-election season is a significant test for both leaders given the federal election contest can be held anytime after August.

The LNP is expected to pick its candidate for the Longman contest on Tuesday night, and there are ructions in the west over the decision by the Liberal party not to run a candidate in the Perth byelection in an attempt to save resources for the federal election.

The Western Australian Liberal senator Dean Smith said he intended to protest against that decision at a weekend meeting of the state council, in essence forcing the decision to be made by a larger group of people. Smith said late on Monday: “I think the political tide is turning against Bill Shorten and we shouldn’t be giving him a free kick by surrendering seats like Perth and perhaps even Fremantle.”

The Turnbull government fanned out during budget week and last week to sell the measures it outlined on 7 May, including the $140bn tax cut package, with the prime minister campaigning last week in the Queensland and Tasmanian seats that will go to the polls once the writs have finally been issued for the byelection contests.

With the government set to try to persuade the parliament to pass the income tax cuts as a job lot, the progressive thinktank the Australia Institute is lobbying crossbench senators to oppose the second and third tranches of the Coalition package.

The thinktank has written to all the key players urging them to oppose lifting the 37% threshold from $90,000 to $120,000 on 1 July 2022 and the removal of the 37% bracket and the lifting of the top threshold from $180,000 to $200,000 on 1 July 2024.

Despite signs the government might be creeping towards a deal, the new poll shows the government’s decision to give tax cuts to Australia’s largest companies remains unpopular with voters, with 60% of the sample saying that measure shouldn’t proceed.

Labor’s proposal to tighten negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions for investors gets the thumbs up from 50% of the sample (24% oppose the policy), and 42% support Labor’s plan to overhaul dividend imputation by axing cash rebates for people who don’t pay tax (27% oppose the policy).

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Two budget measures, a funding cut to the ABC and cutting funding to the corporate regulator, got more thumbs downs than thumbs up, with 45% opposed to the ABC funding cut (35% supported it) and 39% opposed the cut to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (36% supported it).

Voters split evenly when asked which political party they trusted more to manage a fair tax system, with 32% saying Labor and 32% nominating the Coalition. Twenty-two per cent said the political party made no difference and 15% were not sure.

With the royal wedding in the headlines, survey respondents were also asked questions about the desirability of Australia becoming a republic. The sample split on that question, with 48% (support) to 30% (opposition), and 22% undecided.

A majority believed the new head of state in a republican model should be voted in by the Australian people (65%), with 9% supporting a governor-general style appointment by the prime minister of the day, and 12% supporting appointment by a two-thirds majority at a joint sitting of the federal parliament.