GREECE has had a miserable year. In 2015, even as the country was getting its third bail-out in five years, it was deluged by over 800,000 Middle Eastern migrants passing through on their way to northern Europe. This year has not started off much better. Another 1m migrants are expected to make their way to Europe once the weather improves, most of them across the Aegean sea. On February 10th the European Commission outlined a list of ways in which the Greeks need to improve their refugee facilities. Its strict demands, which are based on a ruling in 2011 by the European Court of Human Rights that found the Greek asylum system “degrading”, highlight the scale of the difficulties that the country still faces.

First on the Greek government’s list of problems is managing the migrants. Under pressure from Brussels, Greece said this week that it considers Turkey to be a safe third country for returning migrants, which could pave the way for sending asylum-seekers back across the straits. But Turkey has shown little willingness to accept returned migrants, so deportations are unlikely to happen soon. Athens has also reluctantly accepted that NATO warships should patrol the narrow straits dividing Turkey from Greece’s eastern Aegean islands to restrict people-smuggling. Greece’s sudden rush to co-operate with its partners reflects fears that its northern neighbour, Macedonia, may soon close its own border, trapping migrants in Greece.

Along with managing refugee flows, the cash-strapped government faces demands from its creditors—the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—to reform pensions and taxes. Such reforms are deeply unpopular with Greeks. Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister, appears to hope that if he improves some refugee facilities, notably the long-delayed “hotspot” registration centres, his creditors may dilute or delay their demands. This is unlikely: Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, insists that Greece’s pension system must be made sustainable before the creditors will consider Mr Tsipras’ request for debt relief. Keeping the pension system afloat requires dizzyingly large budget subsidies, equivalent to 10% of GDP every year.

Euclid Tsakalotos, the finance minister, has warned that a compromise deal on pensions must be reached by the end of March or the economy will suffer “irreversible damage”. Other measures, including tax increases and a revamp of the privatisation agency, are also needed if Athens is to qualify for another injection of bail-out cash. The government has enough money to get by until July, when it must stump up €3.5 billion ($4 billion) to repay maturing debts. But foreign investors who poured more than €4 billion into a recapitalisation of Greek banks last November (the third in five years) are growing anxious. The longer the bail-out talks drag on, the more distant a Greek recovery becomes. Amid a sharp fall in global prices of bank shares, hedge funds have pulled out of Greek banks. Whereas most European stockmarkets have fallen by about 10% since February 1st, that in Athens is down by 21%.

The Greek government has also faced its first popular protests since Syriza, Mr Tsipras’s party, came to power a year ago. Irate farmers used their tractors to block highways and close border crossings with Bulgaria and Turkey. In Athens, strikes and protests led by public-sector workers, who are normally loyal Syriza supporters, are on the rise. On February 4th a group dubbed the “tie-wearers” (lawyers, doctors and engineers) took to the streets against the proposed pension reforms, draping brightly striped neckwear on bushes outside the parliament building. “This is class warfare,” said Aristides Syrigos, a lawyer.

On top of all of this, Mr Tsipras must also contend with a reinvigorated conservative opposition under Kyriakos Mitsotakis, leader of the centre-right New Democracy party. Most recent opinion polls give New Democracy a clear lead. Mr Mitsotakis has pledged to try to avoid populist politics and co-operate with the government to tackle the refugee crisis.

Predictably, cafes in Athens are buzzing with speculation of a lengthy stand-off with Greece’s creditors and a spring parliamentary election. But such talk is likely to be premature. Faced with a long catalogue of problems, and having won two general elections last year, Mr Tsipras is in no hurry for another test at the polls.



