David A. Andelman, executive director of The RedLines Project, is a contributor to CNN and a former foreign correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News. His next book, "A Line in the Sand: Red Lines, War, and Peace," is due out next year. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.

There's one defining question in the China-US trade war: Who's more desperate to see it end, Donald Trump or Xi Jinping?

It is clear that each side is already suffering considerable pain. Though conventional wisdom suggests that an autocracy should be more resistant to political upheaval (Xi won't have to face his people at the polls in the foreseeable future while Trump is up for reelection next year) — both will have to pay a heavy price.

. In the United States last month, the bond market The economies of both countries and the fortunes of both leaders have been damaged by the trade war, which does not seem to have hit its peak yetIn the United States last month, the bond market inverted yet again to its lowest level since 2007, sending new chills through a stock market Trump has long labeled the great success of his presidency. Economic growth is heading down toward 2%, well below the solid 3% at the start of the year and half the 4.2% Trump was basking in last year.

overall economic growth has slumped to its lowest level in 27 years, with its domestic GDP growing at the In China, the yuan has hit an 11-year low , andoverall economic growth has slumped to its lowest level in 27 years, with its domestic GDP growing at the slowest rate since 1992. Though at 6.2%, it's still triple American growth figures.

In a real economic downturn, companies begin cinching their belts. Capital spending is often the first to go, which can in turn hit companies that manufacture equipment that is used to produce other goods. Profit margins can be trimmed, wage hikes delayed and consumer prices raised. But there is only so much that can be done to absorb escalating hits from tariffs. Eventually, jobs have to go.