Mainers could be under-counted in coming census, lose out on federal funds

In a state where over a third of all public funding comes from federal dollars, some people preparing for the 2020 census worry that Maine is not doing enough to ensure vulnerable populations are counted in both the rural areas and cities across the state.

The “largest peacetime mobilization of the federal government,” as the U.S. Census Bureau describes it, occurs every 10 years. The results of the constitutionally-mandated census are critical, as they establish the official population of each state, which is the basis for determining how $675 billion in federal funds will flow to the programs that low-income people depend on for their survival — programs like Medicaid, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP).

“Every program we would ever talk about needing or defending — like Medicaid, Head Start, CHIP — all depends on this funding formula,” said Kevin Simowitz, an advisor at the Greater Portland Immigrant Welcome Center, one of the many immigrant-led groups hoping to help ensure a complete count next year. “If we don’t have everybody counted, we’re obviously not going to get all the resources we need.”

The 2020 census will be the first time people are allowed to respond online. Those who do not self-respond, so the plan goes, will be followed up with by census canvassers before April 1, the official census day. But this emphasis on an online approach could exacerbate some existing problems, because the historically undercounted populations — children, low-income people and immigrants — often don’t have access to technology.

By one measure, Maine is ranked 30th in the nation and last in New England for access to broadband internet.

States are already preparing to compete with one another to capture as much federal money as possible. More than 20 states have appropriated money to support outreach in hard to count areas, which are often their poorest and most isolated communities. And although in 2010 Maine was determined by the census to be the most rural state in the nation, it has not yet planned this kind of additional outreach.

Governor Janet Mills signed an executive order in October establishing the Maine Complete Count Committee, which her office said would “develop, recommend, and assist in Census outreach to encourage full and accurate participation in the 2020 Census. However, that committee has not yet been funded.

California has put the most money toward the 2020 census — $187 million. New York City alone has put up $40 million, while states with smaller populations have budgeted less. Montana and Rhode Island have allocated $100,000 and $500,000, respectively. No such funding for Maine’s count was discussed this year by state lawmakers.

Instead, executive branch agencies, like the Departments of Administrative and Financial Services; Agriculture, Conservation and Forestry; Health and Human Services; and Labor, will be tasked with informing Mainers with whom they are already in touch about the importance of the census.

“The issue is, for a state that has got so much federal funding at stake, every person counts,” said Jeff Wice, a senior advisor with New York Counts 2020, a network of 200 civic, labor and education organizations working for a complete count in New York state. “You only have one opportunity to get the census right. There will be no second chances for the next ten years.”

Maine executive branch officials note that the state’s Labor Department is assisting with filling 14,000 federal census taker jobs with the Census Bureau, more than deployed during the 2010 census. They also note that other public and private outreach is being conducted in more than 120 towns by nonprofits, chambers of commerce, libraries and churches.

A final strategy report by the Complete Count Committee is due to Mills by March 1.

“We are proud of the numerous and diverse steps the U.S. Census Bureau, the Maine Complete Count Committee, and various public and private organizations are taking to ensure that the state gets as accurate a census count as possible, and that census takers know the 2020 census is safe, easy, and accessible,” said Kyle Hadyniak, communications director for the Department of Administrative and Financial Services. “In the coming weeks, the Administration looks forward to considering the recommendations of the Maine Complete Count Committee and implementing additional strategies to ensure a complete and full accounting of Maine’s population.”

On the state assisting with hiring census takers, Simowitz added, “When it comes to reaching traditionally hard-to-count communities, the federal government hiring census workers is the baseline, not the end point.”

Maine lost $1,642 per person missed in the 2010 Census

The decennial census count is especially critical for state’s with a larger rate of low-income residents. Federal funds often make up a much larger overall portion of poorer state’s public spending.

In 2016, Maine received $4.1 billion through 55 federal programs guided by data derived from the 2010 Census. Federal dollars accounted for 35.3 percent of the state’s general revenue in 2013. That was the 10th highest rate in the country, just behind some of the states with the highest poverty rates, including Mississippi, Louisiana and Tennessee.

Undercounting can have significant impacts. An official assessment of the 2010 census determined that about one million children were not counted. This impacted funding for critical child and family support programs like Title IV-E Foster Care and Title IV-E Adoption Assistance.

Based on the share of federal money the state receives, Maine is more affected than most states by undercounting. A 2018 study by George Washington University’s Institute of Public Policy found that 37 states in 2015 forfeited a measurable amount of funds for each person missed in the 2010 Census. Maine forfeited an estimated $1,642 per person missed. That rate is behind only Vermont and Pennsylvania.

Simowitz and others involved in outreach for this census note that doing a complete count of Maine’s populations present some significant challenges in both Maine’s rural and urban areas.

Parts of Portland, Lewiston and Washington County have been flagged as having difficult to count populations. In general, people with mental and physical disabilities, people with limited English proficiency and people with low levels of education are hard to count. Low-income residents are more likely to be renters and therefore more mobile and harder to pin down with mailers.

In rural areas like Washington County, people are geographically more isolated, making them much harder for census takers to reach. In cities like Portland and Lewiston, counting immigrant populations has been made deliberately difficult by the anti-immigrant right.

Citizenship question politicized the census

That challenge is the result of the Trump’s administration anti-immigrant agenda. Last summer, the administration moved to put a citizenship question on the 2020 census, which was seen by many as a way to stoke fear among immigrants and their families and suppress their response rate, potentially resulting in less representation in the U.S. House and less federal funding for programs.

“With the difficulty of counting non-English speakers, with fear of government, with the citizenship question still fresh in people’s minds, this census is going to be challenged,” Wice said. “This is the first time ever the census is using online approaches and you really can’t leave anything to chance.”

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the administration’s attempt, but confusion around the issue could still have a chilling effect, which could push Maine’s already marginalized immigrant communities further into the shadows. Because of this, census organizers know that extensive trust building must take place between now and April 1.

“All the research is very clear that the best way to reach hard-to-count communities is through making connections with leaders from those communities,” Simowitz explained. “For instance, if we’re going to engage with the Somali community, we need Somali community leaders and faith leaders to be really helping us communicate the importance of the census.”

But the window for outreach is closing rapidly, and Maine has so far not put any funding behind the Complete Count Committee executive order.

“The longer that efforts wait, the harder it is to catch up and to get a robust census outreach operation underway,” Wice said.

This article was updated with a statement from the Department of Administrative and Financial Services.

Top photo by Win McNamee, Getty Images