The end of the season could see as many as eight well-known quarterbacks end their careers, or at least change jobs

Between 1993 and 2000, the NFL careers of Phil Simms, Joe Montana, Jim Kelly, Boomer Esiason, Dan Marino, John Elway, Steve Young, Troy Aikman and Warren Moon all came to a close. It was a mass exodus of talent at the quarterback position – all but Simms and Esiason are in the Hall of Fame – and led to Super Bowls being won by the likes of Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson before the Tom Brady and Peyton Manning era truly kicked into high gear.

So while the NFL saw nine big-name quarterbacks leave the league over eight years two decades ago, it could see as many as eight well-known quarterbacks end their careers, or at least change jobs, at the end of this very season. While it’s unlikely that all the following players will be out of work next season, it’s a guarantee that there will be a ton of turnover at the quarterback position, so get ready. (Unless your name is Colin Kaepernick, because the NFL apparently isn’t calling you no matter how many jobs open up.)

Eli Manning

Giants head coach Ben McAdoo said on Monday in his latest post-loss press conference that he will spend the rest of the season evaluating players throughout the roster of his 1-7 team in game situations, the quarterback position included. This is CLEAR proof that he finally got around to reading my column from September about why it’s time for the Giants to move on from Eli, right? Sure.

While Manning is by no means the sole, or even primary, cause of his team’s dreadful performance this year, the Giants are in the mix for the No1 overall pick in the draft and are reportedly actively evaluating the top college QBs. The franchise is entering full-on rebuilding mode … not exactly the ideal scenario for a quarterback who will turn 37 three days after the Giants’ season mercifully ends. New York took Davis Webb out of California in the third-round of the 2017 draft, meaning the smart play is to give him some action before the end of the season. If he has potential, the Giants can turn the job over to him next year. If not, they’ll likely draft a quarterback with their top-five pick.

Why it's time for the New York Giants to move on from Eli Manning Read more

Change chance: 80%. Manning would find interest with other teams in the NFL if he wants to keep playing, as his brother did post-Colts, but Eli’s days as the Giants starter should be over.

Ben Roethlisberger

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Ben Roethlisberger has hinted he may retire at the end of the season. Photograph: Jasen Vinlove/USA Today Sports

The Steelers all-time leader in … well, most every quarterback statistic, said at the end of the 2016 season that he was considering retirement. This pronouncement caused a level of panic in Pittsburgh because with an explosive offense in place and a young defense on the rise, the Steelers looked to be Super Bowl contenders this season; losing the franchise quarterback wasn’t part of that script. Ten months later, the Steelers are still Super Bowl contenders, but it’s not because of Big Ben’s presence.

At the midway point of the season, Roethlisberger is on pace for 20 touchdowns and 18 interceptions despite being surrounded by some of the best offensive weapons in all of football. His 61.1 completion percentage and 82.7 QB rating are his worst marks since 2008.

After a five-interception game against the Jaguars last month, Roethlisberger said: “Maybe I don’t have it any more.” Was he being facetious? Probably. Was he also stating a fact? The numbers – and the eye test from simply watching him play this year – suggest he may have been. If the Steelers win the Super Bowl this year, the 35-year-old Roethlisberger will almost definitely retire. And if they don’t, the Steelers might just ask him to.

Change chance: 66.6%. There are three likely outcomes here: the Steelers win and Roethlisberger retires, they lose and he retires or they lose and he stays. Steelers fans can decide how many of those are positive outcomes – they can always rely on getting an actual rocket scientist as his replacement.

Philip Rivers

Manning, Roethlisberger and Rivers came into the NFL together in the 2004 draft, and they could all leave together, too. Just as Manning and Roethlisberger are in the midst of one of the worst years of their careers, Rivers is struggling, too. Yes, it seems quarterbacks not named Tom Brady age in their late 30s.

The LA Chargers are on course for their third consecutive losing season and a high draft pick. While Rivers is signed through next season, if the losses continue to mount, Cardale Jones should earn a late-season look and a chance to win the job for the future.

Change chance: 35%. Rivers, who already had the Chargers move away from his home in San Diego, may decide he doesn’t want to drive to Los Angeles every day just to lose. Or he may be open to moving to an entirely new franchise that can contend.

Carson Palmer

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Carson Palmer is about to turn 38. Photograph: Joe Toth/BPI/Rex/Shutterstock

It seems we’ve been waiting for Carson Palmer to be both healthy and productive simultaneously since the George W Bush administration. And now it’s 2017, he has a broken arm, is about to turn 38 (and George W Bush is dragging a current Republican president in speeches). Palmer pondered retirement after last season, but chose to return because he felt ready “physically and mentally”. Wearing a sling while watching a middling Cardinals team fade from NFC contention likely won’t have him feeling positive about 2018.

Change chance: 90%. Palmer likely won’t want to end his career injured, but the Cardinals would be foolish to hand their team over again to an old QB who can’t stay healthy.

Joe Flacco

Hey, remember when discussing Joe Flacco’s eliteness was a semi-legitimate debate among sports pundits and not an ironic joke about one of the consistently worst quarterbacks in the NFL? No, I don’t really either.

Following Flacco’s remarkable month of good play (and great luck) in Baltimore’s 2012-13 Super Bowl run, the Ravens signed him to a six-year, $120m contract – at the time the richest deal in NFL history. Since then? He has consistently ranked near the very bottom in every metric of quarterback evaluation. This year he stands 31st in the league in quarterback rating, ahead of only CJ Beathard and DeShone Kizer.

The common argument for Flacco defenders – those that still remain – is that his play has suffered because of the lack of talent around him. There is some truth to that, although the lack of talent around him is partly due to his massive contract tying up so much of the payroll. But the awkward truth is that Flacco’s former backup, Tyrod Taylor, has managed to thrive in Buffalo with little more at his disposal than LeSean McCoy. With the Ravens on the way to their third consecutive non-winning season, Baltimore should look to find their next quarterback in the draft. Rolling Flacco out there year after year into infinity simply in gratitude for his play in the winter of 2013 isn’t a wise long-term play.

Change chance: 15%. Unless the Ravens find a team who think a “change of scenery” could work for Flacco and will trade for him, they’re stuck, especially with the awful Ryan Mallett as the only other QB on the active roster. Look for Baltimore to draft a quarterback in the earlier rounds this spring to compete with their briefly elite starter.

Alex Smith

Alex Smith is nowhere near retirement and, in fact, is enjoying the best season of his career. But the Chiefs traded up in the 2017 draft to take Patrick Mahomes No10 overall and, while Smith is signed through 2018, there is a potential out in the deal after this season. If this Chiefs season ends without a deep playoff run, Kansas City may look to start the Mahomes era in the new year.

Change chance: 50%. Call it a coin flip.

Jay Cutler

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Jay Cutler: coming to a TV studio near you. Photograph: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports

Cutler began a broadcasting career with Fox Sports before Adam Gase came calling after Ryan Tannehill’s pre-season injury. Halfway through the regular season, Miami’s offense is performing exactly like you’d expect an offense run by a member of the sports media to perform. The Dolphins only signed Cutler to a one-year deal and it’s unlikely any other team will be foolish enough to offer the same next year.

Change chance: 100%. Ryan Tannehill will be back in Miami next year and Jay Cutler will be on your TV.

Andrew Luck

The former No1 overall pick had surgery on his shoulder back in January and was reportedly on track to start this season under center. But he has yet to play and – as of last week – officially will not play the entire 2017 season. There could be serious issues with Luck’s throwing shoulder that could put his career in jeopardy. Or Luck may have serious concerns about throwing his career and health away with a franchise as poorly run as the Colts.

Luck comes across as a wholesome, aw-shucks fella. But so does Eli Manning and he still forced his way from the Chargers to the Giants on draft night more than 13 years ago. Don’t be surprised if Luck asks for a trade away from the Colts. It may make his shoulder magically feel better.

Change chance: 50%. No one wants to see Luck’s career end due to injury. And no one who wants Luck to succeed wants to see him stuck with Jim Irsay and the Colts. His last game in a Colts uniform may have been a season ago.

Bonus round!

Tom Brady

Brady will turn 41 before next season, the same age at which Brett Favre plummeted from QB star to unmitigated interception-chucking disaster. Now for the things in Brady’s plus category: the Patriots just traded Jimmy Garoppolo; Brady says he wants to play until he’s 50; he shows no signs of slowing down; and, best of all according to his new lifestyle guide book, he drinks magic water.

Change chance: 0.5%. The only reason it’s not zero is because Brady is a friend of Donald Trump’s and maybe he’ll get indicted before next season. Roger Goodell would probably hand over a lengthy suspension for that.