“Welcome home”, says the blue sign on the front door, with an “o” that represents a sun rising above the horizon. Down the street, a police car stands sentinel and five concrete barricades block the way. Here, in an affluent suburb of Washington, is where Barack Obama is beginning the rest of his life.

It was revealed this week that, after a bidding war, the 44th president and his wife, Michelle, have signed book deals with Penguin Random House that are thought to be worth $60m. It is a record for presidential memoirs but it could prove a snip: analysts believe the books will be a hit among supporters already yearning for the Obama era and craving an antidote to Donald Trump.

“Not only have they left an indelible mark on American life, but the Obamas are a couple of the most beloved national figures right now,” said Neil Sroka, communications director for Democracy for America who was an Obama campaign staffer in 2007-2008.

“In many ways, the Trump presidency has only made their appeal larger than it was before. I’m not surprised the Obamas got so much money for these books because millions of people are going to feel a sense of nostalgia for a president they respected and seemed to respect the office in turn.”

The book will also give Obama a chance to deliver one more State of the Union address in print and, if he chooses, make some pointed comments about his successor. This might offer a clue to the wider question of what role the 55-year-old now intends to play in American politics, with options ranging from the decorous silence of past presidents to marching on the streets with the anti-Trump “resistance”.

The Obamas disappeared from view on 20 January, borne away by a helicopter on the day of Trump’s inauguration. They holidayed in Palm Springs, California, and the liberated ex-president was seen learning how to kitesurf while on holiday on the British Virgin Islands as a guest of the entrepreneur Richard Branson. On his return to the US, he drew cheers from crowds in New York and caught a show, Arthur Miller’s The Price, on Broadway.

Most former presidents quit Washington immediately but the Obamas are opting to stay as their daughter Sasha, 15, finishes at Sidwell Friends School. They are renting a nine-bedroom 8,200-square-foot brick Tudor home built in 1928 in upmarket Kalorama, where neighbours include Trump’s daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner, the secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, the Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos, and various diplomats.

Ivanka and her husband live just a few minutes’ walk from the Obamas. Their police barriers are more flimsy. On a recent weekday morning, one was blown into the middle of the street and had to be recovered by a Secret Service agent. Another agent, with laptop and earphones, sat in a grey Toyota Sienna vehicle with a Florida licence plate, warning passersby not to get too close. A woman in a green hijab and black robe wandered up and down, muttering to herself. A leftover poster from the recent women’s march was taped to a lamppost.

Anyone hoping to see Obama stroll by is likely to be disappointed, as he knuckles down to work. Not that the blank page holds terrors for him. His widely admired first book, Dreams from My Father, was published in 1995 and reissued in 2004. The Audacity of Hope followed in 2006 and was on the New York Times bestseller list for 30 weeks. In 2010, he published a children’s book, Of Thee I Sing: A Letter to My Daughters.

His next volume is likely to be a recounting of his presidency. Michelle will reportedly write about her life story as a source of inspiration for young people.

‘The timing is clever’

Bill Clinton earned a $15m advance for his memoir, while George W Bush netted $7m. The Obamas’ reported $60m is therefore a gamble for Penguin Random House, but it is likely to reap huge returns through worldwide rights.

The literary agent Jonny Geller, chief executive of Curtis Brown, said: “I can understand the calculation, which I think is not only two icons but also one of them has a proven record in commercial publishing.

“He’s written two massive bestsellers and also the political timing – the need for another voice in America. So I think that all conspires very well.”

The ascent of Trump makes the book all the more urgent and necessary, Geller said. “The timing is clever because I think had he waited a few years and done a presidential memoir, or something, that still would have been huge, but the fact that now we’re searching for a voice to counter or understand what’s happened and what will go on, I think makes this a very important book.”

It is also likely to be a well-written one. Obama has a pedigree and will be aiming for a classic in the field of presidential memoirs, to rival that of Ulysses S Grant.

Joshua Kendall, author of First Dads: Parenting and Politics from George Washington to Barack Obama, said: “Not a lot of presidents are good writers. Bill Clinton’s came in very long [more than 1,000 pages]. But Obama’s book was one of the things that got him into the White House. Trump used his celebrity through The Apprentice, Obama used words. That’s why appetite is off the charts.”

The groundswell of affection for Obama is evident in t-shirts bearing his face that continue to pop up at anti-Trump demonstrations. In France, tens of thousands of people have signed online petition urging him to stand in that country’s election. His political afterlife has been given an extraordinary edge by the election of his polar opposite and populist nationalist trends sweeping the globe.

It was different when he moved into the White House in 2009 and Bush stepped out of the public spotlight, declaring that his successor “deserves my silence” and turning to painting. Obama has suggested that if certain “core values” are in danger – from systematic discrimination, voter suppression, curbs on press freedom – he may speak out. There was an early sign when his office let it be known he was “heartened” by the widespread protests against Trump’s travel ban.

He’s talked about mentoring the next generation of Democrats … he’s likely to be highly influential Joshua Kendall

Kendall said: “It’s tricky because he’s got to find the right avenues. There is an expectation that you won’t really mess with the details of politics and policy too closely.

“He’s talked about mentoring the next generation of Democrats. If he stays on that higher road, where he keeps one or two degrees’ separation from the daily grind of politics, he’s likely to be highly influential.”

Along with the book, Obama will devote time to his adopted hometown of Chicago, where he is designing his presidential library and building a centre that will promote leadership.

His friend Eric Holder, the former attorney general, said this week he had been talking to the former president about helping the new National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which will aim to combat Republican gerrymandering in the drawing of electoral maps.

“It’s coming. He’s coming,” Holder told reporters. “And he’s ready to roll.”

How active can he be? Sroka would like to see Obama marching and speaking at rallies. “He can be a forceful moral arbiter of good citizenship,” he said.

“One can imagine how powerful it would be to see a future president out on the streets with the people when this administration inevitably goes too far, tries to move people out of the way and tramples all over democratic rights.

“It would be unprecedented historically and an incredibly powerful moment for this burgeoning protest movement.”