Oct 3, 2017

Iran devoted enormous energy to try to prevent Iraqi Kurds from holding their Sept. 25 independence referendum, accusing the Kurdish leadership of recklessness and endangering the stability of the region. Having failed in that endeavor, officials in Tehran are now at a loss as to what punitive measures they can realistically take to punish the Kurds without causing further instability on their doorstep.

As the pressure mounts on Iraqi Kurds following the plebiscite in which nearly 93% of voters cast ballots in favor of seceding from Iraq, Iran as a historical ally of the Iraqi Kurds appears to be hesitant to take extreme measures against its western neighbor, fearing further instability that could easily spill over into Iran's own Kurdish areas. Nonetheless, Tehran has taken some half measures against the Iraqi Kurds, seemingly mainly for domestic consumption.

Tehran imposed fuel sanctions on Sept. 30, flights from Iran to the two main airports in Iraqi Kurdistan have been suspended and the Iranian armed forces are engaged in joint drills with the Iraqi military on the Iraqi Kurdish border. Iranian officials have also met with their Turkish and Iraqi counterparts to reportedly take some joint measures against the Kurdish administration in northern Iraq.

But Iran cannot afford to alienate the Iraqi Kurds, who are currently an important security, political and trade partner and a historical ally of Tehran. “Historically, Iran has had better relations with the Kurds than other countries,” said Ebrahim Rahimpour, the Iranian deputy foreign minister for Asian and Pacific Affairs. “We hope that they stop at this referendum and demonstration of people’s sentiments.” Rahimpour implies that Tehran can live with the referendum if the Kurds do not take further steps toward independence, and he believes that the pace of events is so fast that it is difficult for Tehran to predict what is going to happen.

The Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission held an extraordinary session Sept. 27 behind closed doors to discuss the Kurdistan referendum. Representatives of the Foreign Ministry, Intelligence Ministry, Quds Force were present, as was Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. “Iran does not recognize the referendum for Kurdistan independence, and he [Shamkhani] discussed the territorial integrity of Iraq and mentioned measures that should be taken by our country and regionally,” said Behrouz Nemati, the spokesman for parliament’s presiding board. Nemati also attended the meeting. “However, our measures are mostly dialogue oriented … there are problems with trade and exporting oil from the Kurdish areas, and we believe it should be resolved through diplomacy,” Nemati said.