Worried about the electoral consequences of an economic meltdown next year, Congress president Sonia Gandhi is seriously contemplating an election by the end of this year. The calculation is that Congress is still in a position to win about 135 Lok Sabha seats and therefore can support a non-BJP government on the lines of the Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral model in 1996 and 1997. The fear is that an election 18 or 22 months later could push the Congress to less than 100 seats and make it irrelevant to government formation.

Mrs Gandhi is also concerned that the growing unpopularity of the Manmohan Singh government is finally affecting the image of the Gandhi family, including both Sonia Gandhi and heir Rahul. Voter discontent was manifest in the recent Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, when the Congress fared poorly in Amethi and Rae Bareli, despite vigorous campaign swings by the ruling family, especially daughter Priyanka. A group functioning under the supervision of Rahul Gandhi has been regularly polling groups of voters to gauge the intensity of public discontent. "Focus groups" have also been set up to bring up issues that can lift Congress fortunes. These are now increasingly reporting that the government is pulling down the image of the party in a way that is seemingly irreversible.

Privately, Rahul aides are dismissive of the Manmohan Singh team, referring to the senior (citizen) ministers as the "Jurassic Park". The PM, the External Affairs Minister and the Finance Minister are well into their eighth decade of life, and Home Minister Chidambaram is considered "youthful" at 66; this does not gel with voters who are a far younger demographic. Those close to Rahul Gandhi say that the Prime Minister is "resisting large-scale changes in either personnel or policies". At the same time, Rahul's opinion surveys are increasingly throwing up data which suggest that voters are "turning negative about the Congress president, because of the perception that she is not taking any action to reverse the rot".

{ The fear is that an election 18 or 22 months later could push the Congress to less than 100 seats and make it irrelevant to government formation.

While Rahul Gandhi, according to some of his associates, "is willing to see his party outside government" for a spell, Sonia Gandhi would like to ensure that "the next government rely on Congress for its majority" in case the party cannot itself lead the next coalition. For this, the focus groups say that "a minimum of 135 Lok Sabha seats is needed" and that "the more the election gets pushed back, the lower will be the Congress tally". The fear is of an economic crisis by mid-2013 causing a rapid erosion of the Congress vote bank. Hence, those in the know of discussions within the actual "core group" of the Congress (Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka) say that the family has decided on a snap poll, most likely before March 2013. The advantage would be to put the Opposition on the back foot, as well as face the people before the negative effects of the economic crisis become more pervasive.

The plan is to ensure passage of populist legislation such as the Right to Food Bill by the close of the next session of Parliament, and to launch a broadside against the Opposition by highlighting its past failures in governance. One idea is to hold a general election along with the Gujarat Assembly elections so that Narendra Modi is at the top of voter consciousness. This would, according to Congress strategists, ensure the return of the Muslim vote to the party.

According to key individuals involved in political planning, "informal lists have already been prepared of prospective candidates for the Lok Sabha elections", as well as of current MPs who are in danger of losing their seat because of poor performance or perception. These individuals say that the lists "are being vetted by Sonia Gandhi" but are not being shared with office-bearers of the party, for now. Should the Congress president go ahead with her plans, the country is likely to witness several populist initiatives during the year, followed by a snap dissolution of the Lok Sabha and a fresh election, "which may even take place this year", according to one of those involved in the tracking of voter opinion for the ruling family.