I’m fond of saying that there are three kinds of places American politicians need to win–cities, college towns, and the countryside. In 2016, the Sanders campaign did very well in the countryside and in college towns, but lost to Clinton in the cities. In 2020, the campaign has tried to reach Clinton voters in cities, but I’ve long feared this might come at a cost to Sanders’ appeal in the countryside. Iowa gives us the first real test of how the new Sanders campaign compares with the old. Now that more than 96% of precincts are reporting, we have enough data to see what has changed and what has stayed the same.

Cities:

In Iowa, there are three cities with more than 100,000 people–Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport. These cities comprise the counties of Polk, Linn, and Scott. These are the counties we’ll put in the “city” camp. Here’s how they went in 2016:

Polk County (Des Moines): Clinton by 7 points

Linn County (Cedar Rapids): Sanders by 5 points

Scott County (Davenport): Sanders by 1.5 points

Here are the same counties for 2020:

Polk County (Des Moines): Sanders by 0.5 points

Linn County (Cedar Rapids): Sanders by 4 points

Scott County (Davenport): Sanders and Buttigieg Tie

These figures do suggest some improvement in the ability of the Sanders campaign to compete in cities, especially the Des Moines result.

College Towns:

There are three big college towns in Iowa, in which the student population is a big percentage of the total–Iowa City, Ames, and Cedar Falls. These towns are in the counties of Johnson, Story, and Black Hawk, respectively. They were won handily in 2016:

Johnson County (Iowa City, University of Iowa): Sanders by 19 points

Story County (Ames, Iowa State): Sanders by 19 points

Black Hawk County (Cedar Falls, University of Northern Iowa): Sanders by 6 points

Elizabeth Warren badly damaged Sanders at University of Iowa and Iowa State, but Sanders’ position grew stronger at Northern Iowa:

Johnson County (Iowa City, University of Iowa): Warren by 0.5 points

Story County (Ames, Iowa State): Sanders by 4.5 points

Black Hawk County (Cedar Falls, University of Northern Iowa): Sanders by 9 points

Countryside:

The vast bulk of Iowa’s counties are largely rural. Some include moderately sized towns and small cities, but these small towns and cities don’t have big universities to anchor them. They’re far more reliant on traditional agriculture and industry for jobs. There are a total of 93 of these counties. Here are the numbers of countryside counties won by the candidates in 2016:

Hillary Clinton: 58 counties

Bernie Sanders: 32 counties

Tie: 3 counties

Iowa was a bit of an outlier for Sanders. He did much better in the countryside in subsequent states, when rural voters helped him pick up places like Kansas, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Despite this, we unfortunately find that Sanders’ position in the Iowan countryside is weaker in 2020:

Pete Buttigieg: 65 counties

Bernie Sanders: 15 counties

Joe Biden: 8 counties

Amy Klobuchar: 5 counties

Tie: 6 counties

This result disturbs me, because it shows Pete Buttigieg winning rural counties more consistently than Hillary Clinton did even with a more heavily divided field. This means Sanders lost 15 counties in rural Iowa. Here are Sanders’ 2016 rural counties and their 2020 fates. Counties in italics saw Sanders win by an increased margin. In all others he took a hit of some sort. I have underlined the counties in which Warren won enough votes to potentially have helped a more explicitly centrist candidate steal the county from Bernie.

Lyon: Sanders won by 16 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 16, came in 4th, and the county went to Klobuchar

Sioux: Sanders won by 2.5 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 17, came in 4th, and the county went to Klobuchar

Cherokee: Sanders won by 9 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 6.

Woodbury: Sanders won by 7 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 11.

Harrison: Sanders won by 9 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 2.5.

Shelby: Sanders won by 16 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 16, came in 4th, and the county went to Buttigieg

Pottawattomie: Sanders won by 2 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 1.5.

Montgomery: Sanders won by 28 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 14, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg

Freemont: Sanders won by 6 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 3, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg

Page: Sanders won by 1 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 2, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg

Dickinson: Sanders won by 3 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 10, came in third, and the county went to Buttigieg

Clay: Sanders won by 1 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 5, came in third, and the county went to Biden

Union: Sanders won by 7 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 6.

Boone: Sanders won by 10 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 3, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg

Winnebago: Sanders won by 15 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 20, came in third, and the county went to Buttigieg

Worth: Sanders won by 9 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 11, came in third, and the county went to Klobuchar

Cerro Gordo: Sanders won by 1 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 9, came in third, and the county went to Buttigieg

Butler: Sanders won by 17 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 5.

Grundy: Sanders won by 5 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 7, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg

Marshall: Sanders won by 7 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 6.

Poweshiek: Sanders won by 5 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 8.

Monroe: Sanders won by 1 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 13, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg

Howard: Sanders won by 8 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 17, came in third, and the county went to Buttigieg

Winneshiek: Sanders won by 12 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 10, came in third, and the county went to Buttigieg

Clayton: Sanders won by 2 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 19, came in third, and the county went to Buttigieg

Jones: Sanders won by 7 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 9, came in third, and the county went to Buttigieg

Cedar: Sanders won by 11 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 3, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg

Clinton: Sanders won by 3 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 3.5, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg

Muscatine: Sanders won by 8 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 9.

Jefferson: Sanders won by 45 in 2016. In 2020, he won by 22.

Van Buren: Sanders won by 7 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 17, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg

Des Moines (the county–confusingly, it does not include the city): Sanders won by 7 in 2016. In 2020, he lost by 12, came in second, and the county went to Buttigieg.

Sanders did win a few new counties–Adair, Buena Vista, Tama, Washington, and Louisa. But it’s clear that the Sanders campaign used a more conventional Democratic Party strategy this time around. It focused heavily on college towns and cities, neglecting the inroads it had made in the country. If this continues, it will damage Sanders’ competitiveness in a general election against Trump, and it makes it harder to imagine Sanders winning enough senators in rural red states to push his agenda through.

Some of this can be blamed on Elizabeth Warren, but not all of it.

Of the 22 countryside counties Sanders lost, Warren received enough votes to potentially swing only 12. Because Iowa is a caucus, in many cases these Warren supporters had opportunities to reallocate and refused to do so. Ultimately, it must be recognised that the campaign’s decision to play up social issues in a bid to win over reluctant voters in cities is damaging its ability to contend in the countryside. It might not be enough to derail the primary campaign, but Sanders will need to reckon with this at some point.