Realist Apr 14, 2019

Hi Mish. Long term predictions are difficult and often incorrect. In order to have a better chance of correctly predicting the “long term” one needs accurate data and reliable trends.

That’s why I have always been a fan of demographics. It can provide several decades of reliable data/trends so that one can make reasonable forecasts of its impact over the next several decades. Demographics is why Japan’s future has been difficult for some time now and why it will continue to be difficult for the coming decades.

Sadly, Demographics are becoming less important as time passes; not because Demographics no longer work; but because other factors are becoming more important. Debt levels are a bigger factor today than demographics and will likely remain so for the coming decades; Particularly for developed countries like Japan.

Similarly, the increasingly important effects of global warming will become a larger factor as this century progresses. Even today, humanity is beginning to migrate away from areas that are becoming unliveable. As this migration trend accelerates, and millions are forced to move, current demographic projections will be overwhelmed and essentially useless.

By the way Mish; there was never a scientific consensus about “global cooling” in the 1960s as you say. That is one of many myths that climate skeptics like to believe in. Just like some still believe that the moon landing was a fake.