Senate:

• GA-Sen: Sweet mother of I don't even know anymore.

• IA-Sen: Quinnipiac's first poll of Iowa's open Senate race finds Rep. Bruce Braley leading the entire Republican field, though his margin varies widely depending on the opponent. Here's how Braley fares:



• 43-40 vs. former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker • 46-40 vs. conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats • 44-38 vs. state Sen. Joni Ernst • 44-36 vs. former Chuck Grassley chief of staff David Young • 46-37 vs. businessman Mark Jacobs • 45-34 vs. radio host Sam Clovis

These numbers are a bit more attractive for Braley than those found by Harper last month : The spreads are wider, and Braley's vote share is higher. There's nothing that can really explain why Whitaker comes much closer than the rest of the pack, so it may just be an artifact, since other polls haven't shown him exhibiting any special kind of strength.

Braley, though, has to be decently pleased that he's doing this well, since Barack Obama's job approval rating has cratered in Iowa, from 41-55 in July to 38-59 now. It's a real testament to the GOP's own unpopularity that Republicans aren't doing better in spite of a very rough environment for Democrats.

Meanwhile, though Quinnipiac didn't test the Republican primary, it's about to heat up. Jacobs is airing a new 60-second spot that's reportedly backed by $100,000 buy. Another source says it's more like $140,000, but either way, Jacobs can spend this kind of money early thanks to his personal wealth. The ad itself features an incredibly long and boring clip of a speech Jacobs gave about jobs that sounds like it was recorded in a bathroom on a submarine.

(Yes, I know that it's called a "head" on a ship. And yes, I also know that a sub is called a boat. You ship people are strange.)

• MT-Sen: Politico, relying on unnamed sources, reports that Democratic Sen. Max Baucus expects to be nominated by Barack Obama as the country's next ambassador to China. Baucus long ago said he wouldn't seek re-election next year, but if he resigns, that would give Gov. Steve Bullock, also a Democrat, the chance to appoint a temporary replacement who would serve through 2014.

According to the Washington Post, Bullock will tap his lieutenant governor, John Walsh, who is already running for Senate. That would give Walsh a year of incumbency to add to his resume, but it could also make campaigning harder, especially since Walsh is in the midst of a primary battle with his predecessor, ex-Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger. (The winner will face GOP Rep. Steve Daines in November.) And maybe time spent in Washington isn't necessarily a positive on the campaign trail, though presumably Montana Democrats have poll-tested this every which way.

However, neither Bullock nor Walsh would comment on the matter, and Baucus was cagey. Of course, this all assumes Baucus' appointment actually goes forward, and that he's confirmed in a timely manner. But in this post-filibuster world, he's probably good to go. That means Montana will soon get a new senator—and China will have to endure the stupid things that come out of Baucus' mouth instead of us.

• NH-Sen: The good news: A new poll has Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen up 48-38 over ex-Sen. Scott Brown and 50-32 over ex-Sen. Bob Smith. The bad news: It's from the American Research Group, one of the sketchiest pollsters around. Have they ever published crosstabs for anything?

Gubernatorial:

• FL-Gov: Interestingly, that internal poll for Republican Gov. Rick Scott from Fabrizio McLaughlin also included numbers for a hypothetical Democratic primary, the first we've ever seen. Should Sen. Bill Nelson run, he'd trail Crist 45-32, with state Sen. Nan Rich at 4. Nelson would also lead Scott by a narrower margin, 48-46, than Crist, who we learned previously held a 49-45 edge.

So now you have to ask yourself, what does Scott gain by releasing all this? Nelson supporters are convinced that Scott would prefer to face Crist, so you could conceivably argue that Scott is trying to dissuade Nelson by showing he wouldn't win the Democratic nomination. The problem with that, of course, is Crist performs better in the general election matchup, so the notion that Scott would rather run against Crist is predicated on some long game whereby it'll supposedly be easier to drive up Crist's negatives as opposed to Nelson's. Nelson partisans are equally convinced of this fact, too, but it's entirely conjectural.

So I'm still going with door number one here, which is to say, Scott's putting this data out there to try to make the case that things aren't as bad as the public polling suggests. And I really don't think Scott is dumb enough to imagine he could keep Nelson out of the race with a single topline showing him down 13 points. Nelson will conduct his own polling, if he hasn't already, and will base his decision on those numbers, not Scott's.

• OH-Gov: Ed FitzGerald's well-publicized recent struggles, thanks mostly to the unpaid tax liens of his former running mate, Eric Kearney, have apparently inspired another Ohio Democrat to consider a late bid for governor. Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune says he's thinking about the race and will decide by the end of the year—so, soon. But judging by various tea leaves, Portune doesn't seem especially serious. As columnist Henry Gomez puts it, Portune may just be "floating a trial balloon to gauge whether there's enough party angst over FitzGerald's missteps" to open a door for a second candidate. Right now, that doesn't seem to be the case.

• PA-Gov: Now that Republican Gov. Tom Corbett no longer fears a primary challenge, he's ready to reinvent himself with a rush to the center. First step: a brazenly transparent change of heart backed up by embarrassingly bogus reasoning:



Corbett said Tuesday that he would support legislation banning discrimination based on sexual orientation in employment, housing, and public accommodations. Corbett, who has previously staked out conservative positions on social issues, told The Inquirer that he was "coming out in support" of the bill after learning that federal law does not cover discrimination in the state.

Corbett's been governor for three years, so he just figured outthat Congress never passed the Employment Non-Discrimination Act? Is Wikipedia blocked by the servers at the state capitol? I mean, great that he's suddenly all for equality, but really, he could have worked harder on his excuses. "I used to serve as Pennsylvania's attorney general, but I know nothing about the law" pretty much sucks.

Of course, let's see if Corbett actually uses any of his non-existent political muscle to persuade his fellow Republicans who run the legislature to actually take action on the bill, which has gone nowhere for a decade. Somehow I doubt his heart is really in it; this is the guy, after all, who recently compared same-sex marriage to incest between brothers and sisters.

Ultimately, Corbett's belated conversion is just as likely to piss off his conservative base on account of his apostasy as it is to turn off liberal voters thanks to his insincerity. It's not a winning move, from a guy who, trailing in all the polls, doesn't have many winning moves to play. But it's pretty much exactly what you can expect from Tom Corbett.

Speaking of those bad polls, here's one more, from Quinnipiac. I guess you can say Corbett's improved a little bit, but he's still in disastrous shape. Here are his numbers against the entire Democratic field, with trendlines in parentheses:



• 36-48 vs. Jack Wagner • 37-45 vs. Allyson Schwartz (June: 35-45) • 37-44 vs. Katie McGinty • 37-44 vs. Tom Wolf (March: 39-39) • 39-42 vs. Rob McCord (June: 35-43) • 39-41 vs. Ed Pawlowski (March: 38-44) • 42-37 vs. John Hanger (March: 42-41)

There's not much to say that we haven't already said before. An incumbent in the high 30s is simply in dire shape. Wagner, a former state auditor, has to like his numbers quite a bit, though. He hasn't formally entered the race yet, and there's not much doubt that he will, but this poll should only make him more eager. But with everyone so excited to topple Corbett, will Democrats first shred each other in the primary? I'm not optimistic that things will stay clean.

• RI-Gov: After a looong wait for reasons I can't begin to fathom, state Treasurer Gina Raimondo has finally made her bid for governor official. Raimondo joins Providence Mayor Angela Taveras in the Democratic primary, though attorney Clay Pell (the grandson of the late Sen. Claiborne Pell) is also looking at the race. On the GOP side, businessman Ken Block and Cranston Mayor Allan Fung are fighting it out for their party's nomination.

House:

• AL-01: As expected, Republican former state Sen. Bradley Byrne cruised to victory in Tuesday night's special election to replace ex-Rep. Jo Bonner, defeating Democrat Burton LeFlore 71-29. Because Congress does no work and takes breaks for long stretches from all that hard no-work they do, Byrne is not likely to be sworn in until the first week of January.

• IA-03: Iowa's 3rd District is now open, but even though it's a swingy seat (it went 51 percent Obama in 2012), there's no shortage of top-tier Republican candidates here. The first name to express some interest already may be the biggest one, Secretary of State Matt Schultz. A number of other new GOP possibilities (in addition to the ones we mentioned on Tuesday) have subsequently bubbled up, including conservative activist and 2010 gubernatorial primary loser Bob Vander Plaats; state Rep. Rob Taylor; state Rep. Chris Hagenow; former state Sen. Jeff Lamberti; state party vice-chair David Fischer; and businessman David Oman. And some further options: state Sen. Jake Chapman; state Sen. Charles Schneider; and businessman Jeff Ballenger.

On the Democratic side, state Sen. Matt McCoy is "eyeing" a bid. Ex-state Sen. Staci Appel (who was running before Tom Latham's retirement announcement) may not be the most imposing Dem candidate and could certainly face a primary, and with that in mind, former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack and state Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal are possibilities. (In fact, if you want to see a roster of every Dem state legislator within IA-03, Stephen Wolf has put that together.)

The list of people who won't run is also rapidly expanding. On the Dem side, septuagenarian ex-Rep. Leonard Boswell, who lost to Latham in a redistricting-induced battle in 2012, won't try to get his seat back, at least according to Sen. Tom Harkin. Two members of the overstuffed GOP Senate field who live in the 3rd also confirmed they won't drop down to the potentially easier House race: ex-U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker and state Sen. Joni Ernst. Finally, GOP state Rep. Peter Cownie, who seemed to get short-listed on Tuesday, also confirmed he's a "no." (David Jarman)

• KY-04: Businessman Steve Stevens, a former president of the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce, says he's considering a primary challenge to Republican Rep. Thomas Massie. Massie, a hardcore libertarian, won last year's primary after Geoff Davis retired, thanks to an outside Paulist group that spent heavily on his behalf. That infuriated the local GOP establishment, and they'd undoubtedly like to reverse those results.

• NC-02: Democrat Keith Crisco, a former state commerce secretary under ex-Gov. Bev Perdue, had been looking at a possible bid against GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers since October. Now he's gone ahead and filed paperwork with the FEC, though he doesn't appear to have made any kind of formal announcement yet.

• NJ-05: Democratic state Sen. Bob Gordon, who had briefly looked at challenging GOP Rep. Scott Garrett, has decided against a bid. Gordon just won a hard-fought re-election campaign for the legislature last month, and the 5th District is not especially hospitable to Democrats.

• VA-10: It looks like Republicans have landed a likely candidate to replace retiring Rep. Frank Wolf in this competitive district. State Sen. Dick Black has formed an exploratory committee, though he cautions that he hasn't committed to running. National Republicans probably hope he doesn't: Black has a very long history of making incendiary comments and supporting ultra-conservative legislation. Black has ventured into Todd Akin-land at times, like when he infamously questioned whether a husband who forces his wife to have sex is guilty of rape.

Should he run, Black's chances of being the GOP standard-bearer would likely increase if the nominee is selected by convention rather than by a primary. That decision is up to a governing body in the state party, and it remains to be seen what they will do. Conventions tend to produce far-right nominees who are often unacceptable to the electorate at large (see Jackson, E.W.), and Democrats would love for history to repeat itself here.

Whatever the case, the GOP field will likely grow here, but one prominent Northern Virginian has taken his name out of contention. Former VA-11 Congressman and current VA-10 resident Tom Davis quickly ruled out another campaign. But former Alabama Democratic Rep. and longtime pain-in-the-ass Artur Davis sounds interested in a return to the House. Roll Call's Emily Cahn also reports that outgoing Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and 2008 and 2010 VA-11 nominee Keith Fimian are possible contenders. (Jeff Singer)

Other Races:

• DC Mayor: Winning the Democratic nomination is almost always tantamount to election in D.C. mayoral politics, but this time the general election could be interesting. Democratic Mayor Vince Gray has been under scrutiny for allegedly running an illegal shadow campaign in 2010, and it's possible there are more shoes to drop in this case. However, Gray may win the Democratic nomination anyway: A legion of credible candidates are trying to unseat him in the primary, and they may split the anti-Gray vote enough for him to secure a plurality.

And one credible non-Democrat is making preparations for a Gray primary victory. Independent City Councilor David Catania says that there is "an extraordinarily high probability" that he would enter the race if Gray is renominated. Any non-Democrat has a tough path to victory in this city, but Catania may be able to make things a lot more competitive than usual, especially if Gray's legal woes continue to get worse. (Jeff Singer)

• New Orleans Mayor: Incumbent Democrat Mitch Landrieu should cruise to victory over former judge Michael Bagneris in the Feb. 1 election for New Orleans Mayor, but it looks like this race may be a proxy fight for much larger battles. Despite also belonging to the Democratic Party, Bagneris may have some unlikely allies: It looks like prominent state Republicans encouraged Bagneris to run and are planning to spend big money to help his campaign.

It's unlikely Landrieu will lose in any case, but Republicans have every reason to try and score some serious hits. Landrieu's sister, Sen. Mary Landrieu, is up for re-election later in 2014, and if Republicans can drive a wedge between at least some New Orleanians and the Landrieus, it could make life harder on her. Additionally, Mitch is a potential 2015 gubernatorial candidate, and Republicans would love to wound one of the few big Democratic names in the state. (Jeff Singer)

• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso recaps the final elections of 2013:



New Hampshire House, Strafford-06: Democrat Amanda Merrill defeated Republican Deidre Lepkowski by an 88-12 landslide. Wisconsin AD-82: Republican Ken Skowronski defeated Democrat John Hermes by a 65-35 margin.

Both of these were holds for their respective parties. Elections return Jan. 7

• VA State House: The attorney general's race may be over, but another recount awaits us in Virginia. In the House of Delegates' 86th district, Democrat Jennifer Boysko requested a recount after Republican incumbent Tom Rust was declared the winner by 54 votes. The review will take place Thursday and Friday in Fairfax and Loudoun Counties.

Some quick math extrapolating from the trends of the attorney general recount suggests that Boysko may well fall short. The 86th contains 14 precincts from Fairfax and three from Loudoun (including an "absentee ballot precinct" in each). Based on this spreadsheet compiled by Fairfax County officials, Democrat Mark Herring netted 24 votes in the 13 non-absentee Fairfax precincts that are contained in the district. Boysko typically ran well behind Herring in most of these precincts in the Election Day count, so she'd be lucky to find the same number of votes that Herring did.

We don't have specific data on Fairfax's absentee ballots and the three Loudoun precincts, but we do know that Herring netted 62 votes out of Loudoun's 82 precincts. If Boysko follows Herring's trend in Loudon, she'd gain just a handful more votes (we're talking low single digits), making her road to 54 look tough for now. (Taniel)

Grab Bag:

• Dark Money: The FEC has concluded its long-running investigation into Karl's Rove's non-profit group Crossroads GPS (aka The Worst Charity in the World), but don't take this as a seal of approval. The board has three Democratic and three Republican commissioners, and the GOP members typically always vote against more aggressive enforcement action. So in this case, it's very probable that the commission deadlocked three to three, leading to the probe's termination. It doesn't mean that Crossroads is suddenly kosher.

• Exit Polls: The AP has a very nifty interactive site that displays the results of every presidential exit poll from 1972 through 2012. It's amazing how much information it displays in a very compact, instantly understandable form. Also, be sure to click on the button labeled "Growing Hispanic Vote." It illustrates very starkly how the white share of the electorate has shrunk dramatically over the last 40 years.