By Jason Bryant

TheOpenMat.com

Per our note during the Ohio State-Virginia Tech preview, we put the final Dual of the Week previews out to a fan vote via Twitter. South Dakota State coach Chris Bono got his fans behind the effort, but there were also a fair amount of North Dakota State fans who voted for this dual to be previewed. It’ll be the second time in as many weeks we profile the Bison, but after Friday’s loss to Wyoming, North Dakota State is now fighting to keep the WWC championship away from rival South Dakota State. South Dakota State beat Wyoming and Wyoming beat North Dakota State, if all teams end up with one loss in conference competition, we believe the tiebreaker will be between the two one-loss teams. If NDSU beats SDSU, it would appear Wyoming would win the tiebreaker, while if SDSU beats NDSU, the Jackrabbits would claim the regular season title with their win over Wyoming a few weeks back. The Bison beat the Jackrabbits 30-13 back on November 30 in the first Battle for the Border Bell. The key there is the match was a non-conference dual.

We’re using WrestleStat again to do some things, including using their common opponent feature. I’m really going to like using this site in the future.

And by the way, thanks to all the fans out there in the Northern Plains chiming in. Tip of the cap goes to Bono, who’s done great things engaging the South Dakota State fanbase through social media and twice-a-week videos, including Jacked Up Monday. Both Kish and Bono are doing fantastic things in the Dakotas.

South Dakota State (6-7) vs. No. 19 North Dakota State (10-7)

WHERE: Bison Center, Fargo, N.D.

WHEN: Sunday, February 23, 2 p.m. Central

WATCH: GoBison.com

Projected Lineups

(Subject to change, rankings by TOM)

125: Ben Gillette (SDSU) vs. Hunter Weber (NDSU)

133: Brance Simms (SDSU) vs. Justin LaValle (NDSU)

141: Eric Orozco (SDSU) vs. Clay Cathey (NDSU)

149: Alex Kocer (SDSU) vs. Tyler Diamond (NDSU)

157: #16 Cody Pack (SDSU) vs. Nick Olejnik (NDSU)

165: Joseph Brewser (SDSU) vs. #3 Steven Monk (NDSU)

174: John Nething (SDSU) vs. #14 Hayden Zillmer (NDSU)

184: Ben Schwery (SDSU) vs. #18 Kurtis Julson (NDSU)

197: Trey Hable (SDSU) vs. Tyler Lehmann (NDSU)

285: J.J. Everard (SDSU) vs. Evan Knutson (NDSU)

Breakdown

125: Nine of Hunter Weber’s 14 wins this year have come by fall, including his Nov. 30 win over Isaac Andrade in North Dakota State’s victory over South Dakota State. Ben Gillette is in the mix now for Chris Bono’s Jackrabbits. Weber is a finisher, which makes him even more valuable in situations where bonus points are needed. Weber and Gillette have six common opponents this season. Weber is 3-4 against those wrestlers, while Gillette is 0-7. Not a whole lot will change, other than the opponent for Weber.

Pick: Weber by fall.

133: When North Dakota State’s Justin LaValle made the decision to move back to 133 pounds, South Dakota State’s Brance Simms was his first opponent. The end result was a fall for LaValle, who wrestled at 133 pounds as a redshirt freshman while at Old Dominion. LaValle’s shown his ability to beat solid opponents, as last week’s win over Chattanooga’s Nick Soto showed. He also has the propensity to drop matches that make you scratch your head, as last week’s loss to Oregon State’s Joey Palmer. Simms is 2-5 against common opponents with the previous loss to LaValle. While LaValle’s Greco-Roman background make him a dangerous opponent to tie-up with, pinning someone twice in a season isn’t easy, unless your name is Ben Askren. LaValle’s a heavy favorite.

Pick: LaValle by major decision.

141: Back in November, the gritty Clay Cathey picked up a 2-1 win over South Dakota State’s Eric Orozco. Bison coach Roger Kish calls Cathey one of the tougher kids on the team, because what he might lack in talent, he makes up for in toughness and durability. Orozco still has a sub-.500 record, but has won his last four bouts, while Cathey is on a four-match skid. Gut feeling says Orozco gets some revenge and stays hot. Orozco beat Wyoming’s Cole Mendenhall back in mid-January, while Mendenhall beat Cathey on Friday.

Pick: Orozco by decision.

149: A close bout the last time they wrestled, South Dakota State’s Alex Kocer might be having the least-talked about 26-win season of anyone in college wrestling. He’s won six bouts in a row and is a big reason the Jacks have been wrestling well lately. Tyler Diamond is 13-13 on the season and coming off a win over previous NCAA qualifier Brandon Richardson of Wyoming. Both have wrestled comparable competition closely. They both have a loss to top-ranked Drake Houdashelt of Missouri and both have wins over Iowa State’s Luke Goettl and Richardson.

Pick: Kocer by decision.

157: Last time around, South Dakota State’s Cody Pack was unranked and the Jackrabbits’ only returning NCAA qualifier. Since his major decision against North Dakota State’s Matthew Gray, Pack has risen from the land of the unranked to the No. 16 spot at 157 pounds. The Bison’s Nick Olejnik has had a month to forget. He’s lost eight straight bouts and in those bouts, he’s given up bonus in each one of them.

Pick: Pack by technical fall

165: Steven Monk is hoping to give coach Roger Kish two straight years with Bison on the podium at the end of the Division I season. A high seed last year, Monk failed to place in his second trip to the NCAA championships. At 27-1, he’s ranked third in the country and could be on pace to reach the NCAA finals if everything holds … which as we’ve seen this season, probably won’t happen. And by that, we mean everything holding. Monk is in control of his own destiny. Twenty-match winner Joseph Brewster will be game, but Monk is too good in all positions to get upset here. A repeat of November’s 7-1 Monk win would be a rational place to see this bout heading. Close to bonus, but not quite there.

Monk by decision.

174: South Dakota State’s John Nething II (that’s the second), is sitting on a 19-11 record and is on a three-match win streak, one of which was an injury default win over Cal Poly’s Dom Kastl. Yes, Nething was winning at the time of the default. North Dakota State’s Hayden Zillmer has flirted with a top ten ranking this season, but that might be more of a product of the weight being extremely balanced outside of the top seven. Zillmer placed third at the Midlands and has adapted to the new weight class pretty well. He moved up to 174 midway through last season after hitting a post-high school growth spurt – something along the lines of a four-inch growth spurt. They didn’t meet in November and Zillmer outplaced Nething at the Midlands, but Nething did pin Illinois’ Tony Dallago at the Midlands, showing his ability to win scrambles and put people on their back. Zillmer, although somewhat inconsistent, is consistent enough to keep this one in the Bison win column.

Pick: Zillmer by decision.

184: Kurtis Julson’s been steady for Coach Kish’s team this year, checking in with a more-than-respectable 18-9 record. South Dakota State’s Ben Schwery is coming in 14-17 and recently snapped a four match losing streak. Juslon’s got notable wins this season over Michigan’s Domenic Abounader, Wisconsin’s Jackson Hein and Indiana’s Luke Sheridan. Schwery doesn’t have a win of this caliber. They didn’t meet in the November dual. Julson isn’t a huge bonus point guy, even against wrestlers he’s favored against.

Pick: Julson by decision.

197: Last time out, Trey Hable gave South Dakota State a big fall at 197 pounds over North Dakota State’s Colt Castlebury. This time around, Hable will have to deal with Tyler Lehmann, a bruising mid-season addition to the Bison lineup. Lehmann’s a wrestler who goes for the fall and his strength can allow him to do things most mortal humans cannot do. It’s not quite a super power, but he’s a straight up bull. He’s coming off a poor outing against Wyoming’s Shane Woods, where he was majored 14-5. If Hable can get Lehmann flustered and can force some poor offensive choices, he can be in the match. If Lehmann decides to go bull in a china shop, it’s time to just duck and cover.

Pick: Lehmann by fall

285: Bison heavyweight Evan Knutson pinned J.J. Everard in the dual back in November, but as we mentioned earlier, it’s not easy to pin someone twice in a row, unless you absolutely can absolutely replicate something that worked the first time. Not seeing the match the first time around, we won’t make that brazen claim. What we do know with heavyweights is no matter how much of a gap in ability or performance there may be, it can always end up being a one-move match.

Pick: Knutson by decision.

TOM Prediction: NDSU 25-16

Dual of the Week Standings

Duals: 10-2 (83.33%)

Individual Match Record: 77-25 (75.49%)

Matches not counted (different wrestlers): 18

Exact Outcomes: 56/102 (54.9%)