As the snow and ice finally melt after a chilly winter, a new poll suggests Ontarians are warming to Premier Kathleen Wynne’s minority Liberals.

The Forum Research survey found Wynne’s Grits at 35 per cent, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives at 32 per cent, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats at 25 per cent, and Mike Schreiner’s Green Party at 7 per cent.

“They’ve had a good month,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Wednesday of the governing party.

Using interactive voice-response phone calls, Forum surveyed 908 people across Ontario on Monday with results considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Last month, the Tories were at 35 per cent, the Liberals at 32 per cent, the NDP at 26 per cent and the Greens at 6 per cent.

Bozinoff suggested the results may reflect positive coverage after the Liberals’ annual general meeting last weekend, which attracted 1,000 delegates and included a massive campaign-style rally Saturday.

But he said it is more likely that Wynne’s proposal for an Ontario retirement scheme to bolster the Canada Pension Plan and her promise not to raise taxes on “middle-income” earners are finding traction.

“If they have a gridlock solution that doesn’t involve taxing their supporters that would be popular,” the pollster said, referring to the premier’s still-unspecified method of bankrolling new transit.

As well, voter anger from controversies like her predecessor Dalton McGuinty’s cancellation of Oakville and Mississauga gas-fired power plants, which could cost up to $1.1 billion, may be subsiding.

Extrapolating the latest results leads to a projected seat count in the 107-member legislature of 66 Liberals (up from the current 48, including Speaker Dave Levac), 29 Tories (down from 37), and 12 New Democrats (now at 21).

But Bozinoff cautioned that doesn’t mean the Grits are cruising to a majority victory in an election that could come in June if Finance Minister Charles Sousa’s May budget is defeated.

The Liberal potential seat tally may be inflated because they historically have the most efficient vote of the three major parties, narrowly winning in urban and suburban Ontario.

By contrast, the Tories amass huge pluralities in rural ridings while the New Democrats do well in a few downtown urban constituencies.

In terms of personal approval, Horwath remains the most popular of the major party leaders. She had a 38 per cent approval rating and 32 per cent disapproval with 31 per cent not sure.

Wynne’s approval rating was 34 per cent, her disapproval was 46 per cent and 21 per cent were uncertain.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Hudak had a 23 per cent approval rating, 52 per cent disapproval, and 25 per cent with no opinion.

Like most polling firms, Forum uses a proprietary weighting formula, which has been shared with the Star, to more accurately reflect the broader electorate. Raw data from this poll will be housed in the Political Science Data Library at the University of Toronto.

Read more about: