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1. And then he left

We like to think of program building as linear. You do pretty poorly in your first year, then you do a little better in your second, a little better in your third, etc., until one day you're good.

Sometimes you skip a few steps. Sometimes improvement never comes. Sometimes you leap ahead one year, then take a step backward the next.

When your fortunes are derived from getting a herd of 18- to 22-year old males to act collectively, things are rarely going to go specifically as planned.

The short version (Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)



2016 projected wins: 8.3



Projected S&P+ ranking: 72 (2 in Conference USA)



5-year recruiting ranking: 82 (3 in Conference USA)



Biggest strength: The backfield of quarterback Nick Mullens and running back Ito Smith is one of the Group of 5's most dangerous.



Biggest question mark: Can Mullens do as well on passing downs without go-tos Mike Thomas and Casey Martin? Or can the Eagles perhaps avoid quite as many passing downs?



Biggest 2016 game: It's either the first or the last. Win at Kentucky (Sept. 3) and there's a chance USM is favored in 10 of the 11 remaining games. Beating Louisiana Tech (Nov. 26) might mean a second straight division title.



Summary: Todd Monken raised Southern Miss from the dead, then left for the NFL. He leaves a seasoned, explosive two-deep for new head coach Jay Hopson, and if the Eagles can overcome some efficiency issues, they could make a run at double-digit wins. 8.3: 72 (2 in Conference USA): 82 (3 in Conference USA): The backfield of quarterback Nick Mullens and running back Ito Smith is one of the Group of 5's most dangerous.: Can Mullens do as well on passing downs without go-tos Mike Thomas and Casey Martin? Or can the Eagles perhaps avoid quite as many passing downs?: It's either the first or the last. Win at Kentucky (Sept. 3) and there's a chance USM is favored in 10 of the 11 remaining games. Beating Louisiana Tech (Nov. 26) might mean a second straight division title.Todd Monken raised Southern Miss from the dead, then left for the NFL. He leaves a seasoned, explosive two-deep for new head coach Jay Hopson, and if the Eagles can overcome some efficiency issues, they could make a run at double-digit wins.

Through 2.5 seasons, though, it almost felt like a linear experience for Todd Monken at Southern Miss. When Monken took over, the program had just gone through whiplash. After an almost two-decade string of good performances, USM had broken through with a 12-2 2011, then fallen through a trap door to 0-12 when Larry Fedora left.

The Eagles were probably even worse in Monken's first season, though they did manage to win one game. But they showed clear improvement in a 3-9 2014, and through six games in 2015, they had taken another step forward. They were inconsistent, but they were 3-3.

And then Southern Miss skipped right to being downright good. From October 17 to November 28, the Eagles might have been the best mid-major. They beat five admittedly awful teams by an average score of 46-15, then they went to Ruston and punked a solid Louisiana Tech to win the C-USA West out of nowhere. Midway through, 6-6 seemed like a solid goal. Southern Miss finished 9-3.

Granted, the postseason was a bummer. The Golden Eagles played well in the first halves of the C-USA title game against Western Kentucky and the Heart of Dallas Bowl against Washington, but in the second halves they were outscored 24-7 by WKU and 23-14 by Washington.

Still, after winning four games in three years, 9-5 was a minor miracle. And while Monken's name floated around a few times during college football's December coaching carousel, it appeared he was going to stay for at least one more year.

But in January, with Signing Day only a couple of weeks away, Monken left. He became Dirk Koetter's offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It only took a week to find Monken's replacement. Jay Hopson, who spent six seasons under Jeff Bower at Southern Miss (DBs coach from 2001-03, defensive coordinator in 2006-07) and who has spent almost all of his 24-year career south of the Mason-Dixon Line, moved two and a half hours from Alcorn State to Southern Miss. He went 28-10 in his final three seasons as ASU's head coach and won two SWAC titles -- in 2015, despite all the limitations associated with HBCUs, Alcorn State ranked 171st in Jeff Sagarin's ratings, ahead of four FBS programs -- and he knows the territory.

On paper, hiring Hopson made sense. But after 2015's unexpected surge, he inherits a program that is just now remembering what expectations feels like. The bar is pretty high again.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-5 | Adj. Record: 8-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 56 | Final S&P+ Rk: 58 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Win

Expectancy vs. S&P+ Performance

vs. Vegas 5-Sep Mississippi State 16 16-34 L 26% 16% +1.7 +3.0 12-Sep Austin Peay N/A 52-6 W 62% 100% +19.2 19-Sep at Texas State 116 56-50 W 46% 83% +11.2 +9.0 26-Sep at Nebraska 36 28-36 L 17% 9% +15.6 +14.0 3-Oct North Texas 126 49-14 W 82% 100% +18.9 +19.0 9-Oct at Marshall 58 10-31 L 10% 1% -8.4 -16.0 17-Oct UTSA 111 32-10 W 91% 100% +27.6 +11.5 24-Oct at Charlotte 124 44-10 W 87% 100% +22.3 +18.5 31-Oct UTEP 125 34-13 W 72% 99% -9.6 -3.5 14-Nov at Rice 123 65-10 W 97% 100% +42.3 +47.5 21-Nov Old Dominion 117 56-31 W 72% 99% +3.4 +4.0 28-Nov at Louisiana Tech 57 58-24 W 94% 100% +40.1 +40.0 5-Dec at Western Kentucky 15 28-45 L 37% 18% -2.2 -9.5 26-Dec vs. Washington 13 31-44 L 13% 2% -4.3 -4.5

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 32.9 41 27.9 62 Points Per Game 39.9 13 25.6 49

2. Flipping the switch

Yes, the level of competition had a role in Southern Miss' surge, but even adjusting for opponent, the Eagles really did go from playing at a top-75 level to a top-25 level overnight.

Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games) : 41% (record: 3-3 | average score: USM 35, Opp 29)

: 41% (record: 3-3 | average score: USM 35, Opp 29) Average Percentile Performance (next 6 games): 86% (record: 6-0 | average score: USM 48, Opp 16)

Two touchdowns better on offense, two touchdowns better on defense. That isn't all because of poor competition.

From a projections standpoint, your full-season output and multi-year output are usually more informative than a half-season's surge, but if you return the players most responsible for that surge, it can be sustainable. Quarterback Nick Mullens is back after throwing for nearly 4,500 yards in 2015, as is most of the offensive line, defensive line, and secondary.

But Mullens will be looking at a pretty different supporting cast. One of two 1,000-yard rushers (Jalen Richard) is gone, as are both of the receivers who caught 70-plus passes (Mike Thomas, Casey Martin). These three were the efficiency base of the offense, and more all-or-nothing players (running back Ito Smith, receiver D.J. Thompson) will step into go-to roles.

Plus, of course, new men are in the roles of head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator. That kind of turnover can stop a program in its tracks.

Offense

Q1 Rk 77 1st Down Rk 29 Q2 Rk 46 2nd Down Rk 14 Q3 Rk 45 3rd Down Rk 58 Q4 Rk 8



Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Nick Mullens 6'1, 196 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7817 331 521 4476 38 12 63.5% 23 4.2% 7.9 Tyler Matthews 5 7 112 1 0 71.4% 1 12.5% 12.9 Parker Adamson 6'4, 214 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7593 Gabe Green 6'1, 210 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8074 Kwadra Griggs 6'3, 225 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8122 Keon Howard 6'0, 221 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8519

3. When a QB has the coordinator's trust

In a way, Chip Lindsey's play-calling could have put Southern Miss in a bind. The Eagles had one of the least-efficient standard downs offenses in the country; they ranked 107th in Standard Downs Success Rate+. Nick Mullens had free rein to look deep downfield for lower-efficiency passes, and under 40 percent of Jalen Richard's and Ito Smith's carries gained five or more yards.

First down often resulted in second-and-long for Southern Miss. But that wasn't necessarily a bad thing because the Eagles knew how to catch up to the chains. On third-and-7 or more, Mullens was absurd: 51-for-68, 762 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 193.4 passer rating.

USM's consistent success seemed to almost have a demoralizing effect on opponents. Though the postseason didn't play out like this, Southern Miss' output improved in each successive quarter in the regular season -- the Eagles ranked 77th in Q1 S&P+ and eighth in Q4.

Will the passing downs magic continue for Mullen? New play-caller Shannon Dawson* -- former offensive coordinator at Stephen F. Austin, West Virginia, and Kentucky -- will almost certainly put the game in his hands in a pass-first attack, but he will be without two security blankets.

* Hiring Dawson was an interesting move by Hopson, who saw quite a bit of success with dual-threat quarterbacks at Alcorn State. In 2015, ASU's Lenorris Footman and John Gibbs Jr. combined for 1,800 passing yards and 1,300 rushing yards. But while freshman Keon Howard was a decent runner, USM quarterbacks are mostly pass-heavy.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Jalen Richard RB 185 1098 14 5.9 6.2 41.6% 7 5 Ito Smith RB 5'9, 195 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8354 171 1128 10 6.6 9.3 36.3% 2 2 George Payne (2014) RB 6'0, 207 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) NR 86 271 6 3.2 2.6 25.6% 0 0 Justice Hayes RB 52 204 2 3.9 5.0 26.9% 0 0 Tez Parks (2014) RB 6'1, 210 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8432 28 156 0 5.6 8.0 35.7% 1 0 Delaunte' Thornton RB 5'8, 205 So. NR NR 25 131 0 5.2 2.9 56.0% 0 0 Nick Mullens QB 6'1, 196 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7817 20 102 3 5.1 4.1 45.0% 7 4 Tyler Matthews QB 7 76 1 10.9 7.8 71.4% 0 0

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate Yds/

Target %SD Success

Rate IsoPPP Mike Thomas WR-X 112 71 1391 63.4% 22.2% 12.4 61.6% 57.1% 2.12 Casey Martin WR-H 105 80 925 76.2% 20.8% 8.8 61.9% 51.4% 1.64 D.J. Thompson WR-Z 6'3, 200 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8569 93 55 779 59.1% 18.4% 8.4 58.1% 47.3% 1.66 Ito Smith RB 5'9, 195 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8354 71 49 515 69.0% 14.1% 7.3 56.3% 40.8% 1.62 Marquise Ricard (2014) WR-Z 6'2, 192 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7519 61 30 417 49.2% 13.5% 6.8 55.7% N/A N/A Jalen Richard RB 34 31 295 91.2% 6.7% 8.7 44.1% 50.0% 1.69 Taylor Marini TE 6'4, 237 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7933 19 6 65 31.6% 3.8% 3.4 57.9% 26.3% 1.17 Korey Robertson WR-X 6'1, 210 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8093 17 14 200 82.4% 3.4% 11.8 64.7% 70.6% 1.61 Jordan Mitchell WR-Z 6'3, 202 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 17 7 105 41.2% 3.4% 6.2 52.9% 29.4% 2.12 Daythan Davis FB 6'1, 225 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7583 12 10 86 83.3% 2.4% 7.2 91.7% 66.7% 0.86 Ricky Parks TE 6'3, 270 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8411 7 5 88 71.4% 1.4% 12.6 71.4% 71.4% 1.54 Jay'Shawn Washington TE 6'1, 240 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7000 2 2 50 100.0% 0.4% 25.0 50.0% 100.0% 2.57 Tyre'oune Holmes WR 5'11, 170 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7993 2 1 3 50.0% 0.4% 1.5 50.0% 0.0% 0.00 Julian Allen TE 6'3, 234 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8056 Reid Rials WR-H 6'1, 185 RSFr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7926 Isaiah Jones WR 6'4, 195 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8081 Shannon Smith WR 6'3, 205 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7893 Allenzae Staggers WR 6'1, 190 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7719

4. The efficiency weapons are gone

When you know how to get seven yards (or a lot more) on third-and-7, the world is your oyster. You can afford to go deep on first down or give explosive, inefficient backs (and few were more explosive and inefficient than Smith) chances to break free.

Thomas and Martin combined to catch 23 passes for 450 yards on third-and-long. They were Mullens' favorite targets, and they are gone.

The return of D.J. Thompson assures Mullens will have one seasoned target. The return of Marquise Ricard from injury will help, and it's possible that the small-sample dominance of sophomore Korey Robertson (17 targets, 14 catches, 200 yards) is a sign of awesome things to come. But between these two, one-time prospect Tyre'oune Holmes, and recent JUCO transfers (Isaiah Jones, Shannon Smith, Allenzae Staggers), a couple of reliable targets will need to emerge.

Then there's the matter of Smith's inefficiency. Of the 108 players with at least 150 carries in 2015, only four surpassed Smith's 9.3 highlight yards per opportunity: Florida State's Dalvin Cook, Maryland's Brandon Ross, Georgia Southern's Matt Breida, and WMU's Jamauri Bogan. But like Ross and Bogan, Smith mixed a lot of tiny gains among the explosions. Unless Mullens is able to continue his passing downs magic with a new cast of receivers, he still needs a few more five-yard gains from Smith among the 30-yarders.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. 2015 Starts Career Starts Honors/Notes Cameron Tom C 6'4, 287 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7893 14 35 2015 1st All-CUSA Rashod Hill LT 14 37 Brandon Farmer LG 6'2, 308 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7578 13 25 Norman Price RT 14 20 Devin Farrior RG 6'4, 304 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7908 11 18 Oliver Bates RG 6'2, 295 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7611 4 6 Jerry Harris RT 6'3, 302 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7993 0 4 Randal Agee C 0 2 Tyler Stutzman LT 6'4, 295 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7300 0 0 Brian Long LG 6'3, 311 So. NR NR 0 0 Jacob Fleming RT 6'4, 302 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7919 0 0 Drake Dorbeck OL 6'6, 320 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7959



Ty Pollard OL 6'6, 315 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) NR



Jacob Johnson OL 6'4, 312 Fr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8241





5. Experience on the interior

Southern Miss' offensive line was neither great nor terrible. The Eagles struggled to get much of a short-yardage push, but they did a decent job of protecting Mullens.

But pass protection might be a bit more of an issue now that tackles Rashod Hill and Norman Price, who combined for five years' worth of starts, are gone. The interior appears well-stocked, especially with the return of all-conference center Cameron Tom, but who mans the edges?

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Defense

Q1 Rk 65 1st Down Rk 81 Q2 Rk 11 2nd Down Rk 85 Q3 Rk 94 3rd Down Rk 91 Q4 Rk 104

6. Cry havoc

Southern Miss' defensive mentality matched its offense's in aggressiveness. Whereas the offense wasn't scared of falling into third-and-long in the name of making big plays, the defense was unafraid of giving up a few big plays in the name of forcing third-and-longs. The Golden Eagles were efficient but allowed 19 gains of 30-plus yards (101st in FBS).

This can work as long as your opponent isn't demonstrably more athletic. Against power-conference opponents (Mississippi State, Nebraska, Washington), the Eagles allowed 7.5 yards per play and 43 points per game. Against everyone else: 4.7 per play and 22 points per game.

One assumes Southern Miss' havoc approach won't change despite the fact that Hopson didn't retain defensive coordinator David Duggan. Incoming coordinator Tony Pecoraro ran Hopson's Alcorn State defense last year, and the Braves were even more aggressive than Southern Miss. They committed lots of penalties (118), but they recorded 46 sacks and 119 tackles for loss, defensed 59 passes, and finished with a 23.2 percent havoc rate. That would have ranked first in FBS.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Dylan Bradley DE 6'1, 265 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8237 14 37.0 4.8% 12.5 6.5 0 2 0 0 Andrew Bolton NT 14 24.5 3.2% 3.0 0.0 0 2 0 0 Xavier Thigpen DE 6'5, 240 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) NR 14 19.5 2.5% 4.5 4.5 0 2 0 0 Michael Smith DT 14 19.0 2.4% 4.5 4.0 0 1 0 0 Naim Mustafaa DE 6'4, 250 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8959 14 18.0 2.3% 4.0 1.5 1 1 0 0 Draper Riley DT 6'4, 289 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7933 11 15.5 2.0% 5.0 1.5 0 0 0 0 LaDarius Harris NT 6'1, 280 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7991 10 11.5 1.5% 2.5 2.0 0 0 0 0 Wil Freeman (2014) DT 6'6, 275 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8133 11 10.5 1.6% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 Quincy Russell DL 9 10.0 1.3% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Ja'Boree Poole DE 6'2, 250 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7685 14 9.5 1.2% 4.0 4.0 0 2 0 0 Rod Crayton DT 6'1, 287 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8484 8 7.5 1.0% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Jerry McCorvey DE 6'3, 250 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7944 Derrick Dixon DE 6'3, 240 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7956 Jon Michael Edwards DE 6'4, 250 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8352 Jauan Collins DT 6'0, 295 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7893 Jacques Turner DE 6'1, 247 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8156



















Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Brian Anderson MLB 13 62.5 8.0% 13.5 4.0 0 2 1 0 Elijah Parker SLB 6'2, 220 Sr. NR NR 14 38.5 5.0% 7.5 1.0 0 3 3 0 Terrick Wright WLB 14 30.0 3.9% 2.5 0.0 1 0 1 1 Anthony Swain WLB 11 27.5 3.5% 2.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Darian Yancey DE/LB 6'1, 250 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8106 14 23.5 3.0% 6.0 1.5 1 0 0 0 Sherrod Ruff SLB 5'10, 215 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8367 11 19.0 2.4% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Evan Osborne SLB 6'3, 210 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7752 14 12.5 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 1 David Bertucci LB 14 4.5 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Jeremy Sangster MLB 6'0, 233 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7000 13 3.0 0.4% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 C.J. Perry LB 6'0, 233 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) NR 7 2.0 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Sherrod Ruff LB 5'10, 215 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8367 Paxton Schrimsher LB 6'3, 225 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8215 Isaiah Spencer LB 6'0, 220 RSFr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7746 Jacorey Morris LB 6'3, 220 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8610 Racheem Boothe LB 6'0, 210 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8367















Jordan Harris (Iowa State) LB 6'0, 233 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7852 12 53.0 7.4% 5.0 1.0 1 0 0 0

7. Questions up the middle

The good news: Pecoraro should have all sorts of attacking success on the edges. Ends Dylan Bradley, Xavier Thigpen, and Naim Mustafaa return after combining for 21 TFLs and 12.5 sacks, and outside linebackers Elijah Parker and Darian Yancey (who could also play end) added 13.5 and 2.5, respectively.

The bad news: Starting tackles Andrew Bolton and Michael Smith are gone, as is dynamic MLB Brian Anderson. These three gave Southern Miss a unique attacking presence up the middle (combined: 21 TFLs, eight sacks) and allowed Duggan to get creative in when and how he rained havoc on opponents. [Update: linebacker Jordan Harris transferred to the program from Iowa State in June for his senior season with immediate eligibility.]

Draper Riley and LaDarius Harris were both in the tackle rotation in 2015, Yancey is big enough to man the MLB position if need be, and Monken recruited linebackers pretty well (six of the 11 listed above were three-star recruits according to the 247Sports Composite). Plus, it's possible that big, aggressive safety D'Nerius Antoine ends up at linebacker. But the backbone of the defense has a decent amount to prove.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR D'Nerius Antoine LB/S 6'0, 215 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) NR 14 89.0 11.5% 7.5 1.5 2 5 4 0 Kalan Reed CB 14 53.0 6.8% 4 0 4 17 2 1 Picasso Nelson Jr. S 5'10, 195 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7785 14 50.5 6.5% 5 0 0 5 1 0 Cornell Armstrong CB 5'11, 180 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8159 12 42.0 5.4% 1 0 2 10 0 0 Devonta Foster S 6'0, 190 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8000 10 32.0 4.1% 0 0 1 2 2 0 Curtis Mikell CB 5'8, 170 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7759 14 26.0 3.3% 1 0 0 0 0 0 Trae Collins CB 5'11, 184 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7600 13 25.5 3.3% 0 0 0 2 1 0 Deshadrick Truly S 6'0, 195 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8100 11 18.0 2.3% 0 0 0 3 0 0 Justin Abston DB 5'11, 182 Sr. NR NR 14 6.5 0.8% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Walden Davis DB 5'10, 192 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8500 9 5.0 0.6% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kevin Williams Jr. DB 5'11, 194 Jr. NR NR 14 5.0 0.6% 0 0 1 0 0 0 Jomez Applewhite DB 6'1, 180 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) NR 13 4.0 0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kelsey Douglas DB 5'11, 192 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7959 Xavier Marion DB 6'0, 205 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7693 Tarvarius Moore DB 6'2, 190 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7667 Demetrius Market DB 5'8, 168 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7993

















Devontre Parnell (Louisville) CB 5'11, 184 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8758

8. Few concerns in the back

Depending on where Antoine lines up, the Southern Miss secondary either returns a ton or merely a lot. Antoine is a nickel back prototype who will do damage no matter how he's classified, but Southern Miss' experience in the back stretches far beyond him. The Eagles also get safeties Picasso Nelson Jr. and Devonta Foster back, and Cornell Armstrong is a play-maker at corner.

The biggest (only?) question comes opposite Armstrong. Only four players defensed (intercepted or broke up) more passes than Kalan Reed last year, and his departure means either Curtis Mikell, Trae Collins, or a newcomer will need to step up. Both Mikell and Collins played quite a bit last year -- USM's secondary went eight deep -- but Reed was a special play-maker. [Update: Devontre Parnell transferred to USM from Louisville for his senior season. He'll be available immediately.]

Still, the biggest concerns come at tackle and middle linebacker. Southern Miss has plenty of options in the back.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2016

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Tyler Sarrazin 6'3, 204 Sr. 45 39.8 3 1 17 40.0% Matthew Moseley 4 31.5 0 3 2 125.0%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Stephen Brauchle 6'1, 205 Sr. 95 58.9 16 3 16.8%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Stephen Brauchle 6'1, 205 Sr. 48-52 11-13 84.6% 0-1 0.0% Parker Shaunfield 6'0, 170 So. 22-22 2-4 50.0% 0-1 0.0%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Returns Avg. TD Mike Thomas KR 15 20.7 0 Ito Smith KR 5'9, 195 Jr. 11 21.2 0 Jalen Richard PR 20 4.4 0 Casey Martin PR 5 4.4 0

Category Rk Special Teams S&P+ 119 Field Goal Efficiency 114 Punt Return Success Rate 55 Kick Return Success Rate 10 Punt Success Rate 128 Kickoff Success Rate 96

9. The wrong parts return

Southern Miss' return games were solid and sturdy in 2015 despite a lack of huge returns. But the Eagles ranked just 119th in Special Teams S&P+ because of, well, everything else. Stephen Brauchle missed four PATs and wasn't a threat outside of 40 yards, and since he didn't manage many touchbacks on kickoffs, a shaky coverage unit was tested and often failed.

Meanwhile, Southern Miss' punt efficiency was maybe the worst in the country. Tyler Sarrazin had quite a few punts downed inside the 20, but opponents averaged nearly nine yards per return.

Brauchle and Sarrazin are back, for better or worse, and while Ito Smith has potential in the return game, he's the only returning return man with experience. So the weaknesses of the special teams unit might not get stronger, but the strengths could get weaker. Not a great combination.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 3-Sep at Kentucky 83 -0.3 49% 10-Sep Savannah State NR 47.7 100% 17-Sep Troy 103 12.8 77% 24-Sep at UTEP 126 14.3 80% 1-Oct Rice 119 17.8 85% 8-Oct at UTSA 116 10.5 73% 15-Oct at LSU 2 -27.1 6% 29-Oct Marshall 75 3.9 59% 5-Nov Charlotte 123 19.3 87% 12-Nov at Old Dominion 111 9.0 70% 19-Nov at North Texas 128 15.2 81% 26-Nov Louisiana Tech 84 6.8 65% Projected wins: 8.3

Five-Year F/+ Rk -16.9% (95) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 88 / 82 2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -1 / -2.9 2015 TO Luck/Game +0.8 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 67% (65%, 69%) 2015 Second-order wins (difference) 9.3 (-0.3)

10. Just one guaranteed loss

Hiring Hopson makes sense, but it's a shame Southern Miss had to undergo change. Monken did a wonderful job, especially in his third season, and without change, the Golden Eagles would have appeared poised for a huge year with the schedule at hand.

USM is projected 72nd in S&P+ and plays only one team projected higher. The trip to LSU is a likely loss, games against Kentucky, Marshall and perhaps Louisiana Tech are basically tossups (with a coin slightly weighted in USM's favor), and the other eight are likely wins. But those projections are based on Monken's work. A coaching change always threatens progress.

After a few lost years, Southern Miss is back among the living. Monken handed Hopson a program in far better shape than the one he inherited, and it would be a surprise if Hopson didn't do a solid job. He's been groomed for it. But a brief step backwards is on the table if the offense isn't quite as good on third-and-long and the defense isn't as good at forcing third-and-long.

If Hopson is able to navigate, the Eagles will have a solid shot at their second 10-win season since 1988, when Brett Favre was a sophomore.