Washington Wizards Will Find It Hard To Win In New NBA

No matter how big of a “3” a team has, it takes a special combination to win a championship.

In infamous fashion, the 2012 Los Angeles Lakers showed us that chemistry and top-to-bottom roster makeup are the most important building blocks to a ring. The Golden State Warriors embodied that mantra during its championship run last season; with no player taller than 6’8″ on the court, that team still found a way to win and advocated for the “New NBA” in the process.

That “New NBA” says this: at minimum, three players need to shoot from outside, and at least one needs to be an elite defensive player. Each of the past four champions had such a lineup.

In 2012 and 2013, the Miami Heat had a plethora of outside threats (Ray Allen, Chris Bosh, etc.) and LeBron James as the elite defender.

The 2014 San Antonio Spurs had Danny Green, Manu Ginoboli, and Tony Parker as its principle shooters and Kawhi Leonard as the elite defender.

The 2015 Warriors had the Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson backcourt with Draymond Green as the elite defender.

All this while squads like the Memphis Grizzlies just couldn’t find a way to get over the hump due to a commitment to quite the opposite of “small ball”.

This season, despite quite the offseason shakeup, the Washington Wizards’ roster doesn’t exactly fit that mold of past champions.

Bradley Beal has established himself as a consistent and clutch outside shooter, but John Wall isn’t quite there yet. Otto Porter has a lot of work to do in all areas of his game, and Kris Humphries is just not the “stretch 4” that has and will win in the playoffs.

Marcin Gortat is purely an inside scorer and rebound threat, but he can hit the midrange occasionally; he is one of Washington’s most important players moving forward.

While shooting is there in spots, there isn’t a lockdown defender in that group, or even off the bench. It’s hard to imagine the Wizards winning a championship until either:

An elite offensive threat, like Kevin Durant, is acquired in order to make up for the lack of lockdown defense with elite scoring.

A high-caliber starter at the power forward position is acquired.

The likelihood of the former largely depends on where the Washington Wizards and Thunder end up this season.

Ernie Grunfeld has already prepared for 2016 free agency in his decision to not complete a contact extension with Bradley Beal earlier this week. This saves money in the short-term without releasing any players.

As for the latter, power forward has quickly become a position that emphasizes athleticism and shooting ability over rebounding and defense. Draft picks like Jabari Parker will become more common as this “New NBA” moves forward; A 6’8″ shooter who is big enough to play the four, and athletic enough to play the three.

In an ideal scenario, Humphries’ best role would be off the bench, while a more athletic forward starts. The veteran can average a double-double and he has been working on this three-point shot. He even made the first of his career on opening night against the Orlando Magic. But when the past is combined with where the league is trending, it just won’t work for the Wizards.

Why?

The key to getting past the Conference Finals is winning a 7-game series against the Cavaliers. Their roster looks almost perfect right now: maybe the best stretch four in all of basketball in Kevin Love, a dynamic scorer at point guard in Kyrie Irving, and of course Lebron James. Tristan Thompson is the prototypical second-unit power forward in this “New NBA”; a tenacious rebounder who doesn’t need the ball to be effective.

Matchup-to-matchup, the Wizards would need a lot of luck (and injuries) to win that series. Until then, with the current roster, it will be a struggle to find those must-wins in a playoff environment.