It Doesn't Matter: Shutting It Down the Right Thing to Do

by Avash Kalra/Senior Writer (@AvashKalra)

It's almost impossible to keep up with the pace of the news over the past 24 hours, but sports conferences and leagues everywhere have been suspended or outright canceled as concerns about novel coronavirus (COVID-19) grow across the globe. At this exact moment, the college hockey season is in serious jeopardy, and the complete cancelation of the NCAA tournament is likely.

I'd love to write a preview of the NCHC quarterfinal series today. That was the original plan. My colleagues at CHN would like to preview all the conference tournaments. It's supposed to be part of what's normally one of the most exciting weekends of the year for the NCAA.

Originally, the conference tourneys were to be played in empty buildings. The sounds on the ice — skates, players and coaches — would have been amplified, but there's no drowning out the noise of a different and more important reality for now.

The NCAA should cancel the men's and women's college hockey tournaments, in addition to basketball. It wouldn't be an overreaction, but to be clear, anything less would be an under-reaction. Is such a measure disruptive? Of course it is. Sports are important. Players' careers and experience of playing in these games are important. Those are valid feelings.

But none of it is important in the grand scheme of things, when all scientific data regarding the novel coronavirus produces only one reasonable conclusion — that avoiding crowds and promoting social distancing is one of many steps to limit the spread of a potent virus that puts lives of millions at risk, particularly the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.

Quantifying the impact of canceling games will be hard, too. You'll never know what impact one canceled tournament had on whatever happens over the next few months. That can be hard to come to terms with. Just imagine how the players, families, and coaches feel.

But know this: the U.S. healthcare system can be easily overwhelmed. I can tell you that from personal experience. Physicians who treated young patients who died from H1N1 influenza can tell you that from personal experience. And physicians who have worked in emergency rooms and operating rooms following mass casualities (shootings and otherwise) can tell you that from personal experience.

I'm a physician, but I'm not an expert on COVID-19 and wouldn't pretend to be. But an unprepared country will have a significantly higher mortality rate than a prepared one. The difference is so massive that it's not worth worrying about whether games get played or not. It matters... but it also doesn't. If the U.S. mirrors the experience of China or Italy, there won't be enough ventilators or even hospital beds. It's a mathematical fact. I'll leave it to others — the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization, among them — to comment on epidemiology and other details regarding this unprecedented modern-day public health threat.

For now, use common sense, wash your hands, and shut down the NCAAs.

Dr. Avash Kalra, in addition to being a staff writer for CHN, is a Transplant Hepatologist at a hospital in Denver.