Klapisch: Why Lucas Duda remains a mystery to Mets

Go ahead, make a list of the greatest uncertainties hovering over Mets’ camp and you’ll start with Matt Harvey. Good call, no one disagrees. But team officials are just as anxious about Lucas Duda, whose return from injury is nearly as important as the Dark Knight’s and just as much of a mystery.

There are two critical components to Duda’s future at Citi Field. The first is why he hit so poorly in 2016. The second is whether the Mets can count on him to be a full-time run-producer in 2017 now that he’s healthy again.

Both questions relate to the condition of Duda’s back – he suffered a stress fracture in the lower vertebrae, which was likely responsible for near-career worsts in every major offensive category. Duda was batting .231 when he went on the disabled list on May 20, and was even less of a factor after returning in September, batting .217 with one extra base hit in 23 at-bats.

To this day the Mets wish they knew more about the genesis and extent of Duda’s injury. One team elder said, “I think he probably kept it from us” and tried to solider on in April and May. Given the organization-wide angst about David Wright’s own back and neck problems, it’s not unreasonable to think Duda’s strategy was to avoid attention.

That is, until the pain became unbearable and effectively ended his season. The Mets are willing to write off Duda’s poor numbers in September to rust; the real test comes in spring training. He’s had a full winter to regain his strength and his bat-speed and, the team hopes, that home run prowess.

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Duda slugged 57 HRs in 2014-15 and has 108 in his seven-year career with the Mets. He’s hardly been a fan-favorite however. The slugger is known for monstrous slumps, including his 20 strikeouts in 14 post-season games in 2015. Even more damning was Duda’s high throw to the plate in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the World Series, allowing the Royals’ Eric Hosmer to score the tying run. The Mets went on to lose the game and the Series.

But after a disappointing, injury-plagued 2016, the Mets are hoping for a full re-set for everyone – not just for the pitching staff but for key components like Duda. The club says the first baseman is medically sound and, just three days shy of his 31st birthday, still in his prime.

But the more salient issue is whether Duda can stay healthy. More specifically, if the nature of his back problem will leave him vulnerable to re-injury.

“That’s the one thing (the Mets) can’t know, if Duda is ever going to be same player,” said one major league talent evaluator. “You never really get to 100 percent again after an injury like that.”

Don't expect an answer in February or March. It’ll take longer than that for the Mets to know if Duda’s strong enough to play 4-5 times a week. In the meantime the club is quietly preparing Plan B, which includes turning Michael Conforto into a first baseman.

It’s not an ideal way to compensate for Duda’s possible breakdown, given how little experience Conforto has away from the outfield. But such a conversion would at least alleviate the overcrowding in the outfield. Conforto is currently backing up Jay Bruce, a situation isn’t likely to change any time soon. The Mets have given up trying to trade Bruce and have installed him as the everyday right fielder.

The Mets still like Conforto’s upside, though, and agree he’ll eventually become a middle of the order asset. But he needs to at least hold his own against left handed pitching (.104 average in 2016) and has to learn the fundamentals at first base as well.

Conforto is a lifelong corner outfielder, but the Mets like his athleticism and think he could adapt to the infield. He’ll be taking ground balls in camp and fly balls in center field; that’s how adaptable he is. The idea is to give Conforto enough reps to jump start his evolution. After seeing his average fall 50 points to .220 last year, the Mets are hoping for a dramatic turnaround in 2017.

That might impact their decision making in November, when Duda becomes a free agent. If Conforto looks comfortable enough to replace Duda, the coup might happen even sooner. It depends on Conforto’s ability to bounce-back from a poor 2016 and if Duda can be tolerate daily stress. Or not.

The Mets privately admit they’re flummoxed; they have no idea what to expect from Duda. But just as it’s possible Duda’s best days are behind him, there’s a best-case scenario right around the corner too.

Imagine if he regains that HR-stroke, and Bruce gets comfortable in the big city and Curtis Granderson regain his discipline at the plate and Yoenis Cespedes is injury-free. What if everyone stays healthy and simply hits?

“Then you’re talking about a lot of home runs,” one Mets elder said. “I mean, we’re sitting on what could be a very dangerous lineup.”