Tim Tebow -- photo by Joe Amon / The Denver Post

Ken Stabler hands off to Mark van Eeghen, the leading rusher for the 1977 Oakland Raiders

Michael Vick -- Streeter Lecka / Getty Images





Improving as a passer at the rate of the average improver from our previously examined group would mean Jackson's Completion Percentage rising to 62.8% in 2019, which would have him complete 291 total passes on 463 projected attempts. If he improves his yards per attempt average to the same degree as improvers from that group, he would throw for 3616 yards. Using his 28th-in-the-league (among players with at least 150 attempts) passing TD Rate of 3.5% from 2018 would have Jackson throw 16 TDs next season, and if that rate improves to the league-wide rate of 4.8%, Jackson could throw 22 TDs. Maintaining his 11th-ranked Interception Rate would mean throwing 8 interceptions, while a league-average Rate would have Jackson throw 11 picks.





Lamar Jackson's 2019 season could go one of two ways: he could improve as a passer and become a Michael Vick-level weapon as a dual-threat QB, or he could go the way of Matt Leinart, Charlie Batch, and others before him and solidify his reputation as a subpar passer, forcing him to rely on his legs to be effective against NFL competition. Based on team-wide projections and using historical examples of similarly-performing young QBs, either one of those outcomes would have Jackson make good on his current ADP in both dynasty and redraft.





If Jackson regresses to the degree that other passers from our sample group did, his efficiency numbers on projected 2019 volume would have him finish as the QB15 in fantasy (compared to 2018 finishes), and still a solid streaming option week-to-week. If he takes a step forward to the degree of the average improver from our sample group, his projected numbers would have him finish as a top-5 fantasy QB, an incredible return on investment in the 12th round of drafts.





Lamar Jackson is one of the highest-upside selections in this year's QB group, one of the best value picks in the late rounds of seasonal leagues, and a great buy-low in dynasty as a guy being selected behind or right around lower-upside options like Jimmy Garrappolo, Tom Brady, and Mitchell Trubisky.





Mitch Trubisky -- Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images





In many dynasty leagues, Jackson can likely be had in trade for relatively cheap. DLF's Trade Analyzer tool values him at 300.7 points in superflex leagues, less than the value of the 2019 rookie draft 1.05. According to DLF, recent real-life dynasty trades involving Jackson have included:





> Jackson for the 2019 3.01, a 2020 3rd, and Tyreek Hill

> Jackson for a 2020 1st and a 2020 3rd

> Jackson for Blake Bortles and the 2019 1.03





I would personally take Jackson over any player in a superflex rookie draft outside of Kyler Murray at the 1.01. If you can get him for the price of two 3rd round picks and a receiver on the Commissioner's Exempt List, or of Blake Bortles and the third-best rookie in 2019, I think you've gotta pull the trigger.





Currently priced at his floor, Lamar Jackson has league-winning upside in redraft leagues and can be had for trajectory-changing value in superflex dynasty leagues. He is already among the best Konami Code threats we've ever seen, and if he improves as a passer even to the degree of a Byron Leftwich or a Mitch Trubisky, he will be one of the most valuable QBs in fantasy football. Trade for him in dynasty, take him in the late rounds in redraft, and profit.

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Given what we've seen historically from QBs and their designed carry load, that sort of gameplan for Jackson and the Ravens offense does not seem sustainable or realistic in the longterm. Jackson is a great runner and a limited passer at this point in his career, so it makes sense to play to his strengths, but is his overall ability so weighted towards running that he should be carrying the ball three times as much as Tim Tebow did in 2011? I don't think so, and that's not to mention the injury risk that Jackson would likely face from such a physically taxing workload. He doesn't have the superhero body type of a Cam Newton or a Tebow, and the only other QB on this list is Robert Griffin III, a similarly slight guy who himself was hurt while playing a dangerous style of rushing-heavy football.All that said, I don't think the Ravens should be running Lamar Jackson as often as they did in 2018, but I also don't think they will. Jackson took over the starting job in the Ravens' tenth game of the season, and the offense he ran was likely a microwaved version of their full playbook patched together with specialty packages they had prepared for Jackson to run while tag-teaming onto the field as an ancillary gadget player.A full offseason to prepare for Jackson as the starter should result in a different and expanded playbook from the one we saw at the end of last season, and the Ravens' offseason transactions portend a more pass-centric approach. They added wide receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin on the first two days of the NFL Draft, along with explosive satellite back Justice Hill in the 4th round and a back with multiple 50-reception seasons on his resumé in Mark Ingram through free agency. How these new additions perform in Baltimore is of course yet to be seen, but it's clear that an effort is being made to surround Jackson with quality skill position talent, particularly in the form of pass-catchers.A potential move towards a more pass-heavy approach is good and bad for Jackson's fantasy outlook, and even particularly for his outlook as a Konami Code threat. More of Hribar's findings illuminate the dichotomy between Jackson as a designed runner and Jackson as a scrambler out of drop-backs:If the Ravens call more passes this year, then Jackson's total rushing attempts will necessarily go down, but he'll likely be more efficient as a runner as a result of a greater percentage of his attempts coming from scrambles rather than designed runs. Whether or not enough of his runs are scrambles to make up for the likely decrease in volume is the big question.The biggest knock on Jackson during his rookie season was his lack of development as a passer. Among 41 players with at least 100 pass attempts, Jackson was 26th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt and 37th in Completion Percentage, proving to be both inefficient and erratic. Since 1993 (the year that marked the inception of free agency in the NFL, a fairly arbitrary starting point for the "modern" game), 18 rookie QBs have thrown at least 150 passes while posting an ANY/A below 6.00 and completing 55-60% of their attempts after being selected in the first or second round of the NFL Draft (sorted by Comp. %):As you can tell from the names on the list, such a poor rookie season is not a death sentence for a QBs career prospects. Defining a total bust as a player who did not improve in both of these areas either in their second season or in their career overall, only EJ Manuel, Rick Mirer, Matt Leinart, and Charlie Batch proved to be lost causes. 11 of these players improved in both areas over their careers, while 7 of them improved in both areas in just their second seasons as pros.The pace at which these players developed is useful in projecting the sort of improvement we might see from Lamar Jackson in year two. Let's first take a look at ANY/A. While there's a chance that Jackson doesn't improve or even regresses as a sophomore from a per-attempt efficiency standpoint, as Batch, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford, Brandon Weeden, and Leinart did, two thirds of these passers increased their per attempt output as second year players. Those 10 improvers boosted their ANY/A by an average of 1.17 yards while Blake Bortles, Peyton Manning, Mitch Trubisky, and Derek Carr each improved by substantially greater than 1.00 yard.Inaccuracy is more stable from rookie to sophomore year among this group, as almost half of these qualifying passers completed a smaller percentage of their attempts in year two than they did in year one. Those who improved did so significantly, however, with the average improver increasing his Completion Percentage by 4.6 points and all but one improver becoming a 60%+ passer.The possibility exists that Lamar Jackson is already a finished product as a passer; perhaps he lacks the work ethic and motivation necessary to improve his craft, perhaps he is too far gone mechanically, perhaps he is incapable of properly reading NFL defenses and making good decisions. Maybe he's Matt Leinart or Charlie Batch. According to the career arcs of historical examples like Jackson, though, it's more likely that he's at least Byron Leftwich or Andy Dalton. I'm not ready to close the book on Lamar Jackson, terrible passer of the football, just yet.Given what we know -- about Jackson as a rusher, about the highest-volume running QBs of the last decade, about Jackson as a passer, about similarly-performing rookie QBs of the last 25 years, about the offseason moves the Ravens have made on offense -- what can we reasonably expect out of Jackson in 2019?I anticipate Baltimore's offensive gameplan to be less "exotic smashmouth" and more "traditional NFL playbook with flavorful wrinkles" going forward. The Ravens led the league in rushing attempts last season with 547, and their 16-game pace in contests that Lamar Jackson started was 678 attempts, which would be the most rushing attempts a team has ever had over the course of a 16-game schedule, going back to 1978. Projecting the Ravens to run as much as they did last year -- more than any other team has since the John Madden-coached and Ken Stabler-led Raiders did in 1977 -- is a fool's errand. Their play-calling will revert back to something resembling a 21st-century offensive system in 2019.The Ravens ran the most total plays in the league over the course of last season, and even in the games that Jackson started, they operated at a 16-game pace of 1066 plays, which would've been third in the league behind the Patriots and the Colts. Over the last three seasons under recently fired offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, the Ravens ran an average of 1066 plays a year. In 6 years working with QBs with similar skillsets on the Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick-led 49ers and the Tyrod Taylor-led Bills, new OC Greg Roman's units had an average finish of 24th in the league in total plays run -- averaging 1012 plays per season in his final three years -- so expecting a dip in overall volume for Baltimore this year is probably reasonable.The Ravens overall offensive approach, while likely more pass-heavy in 2019 than the historical run-heavy stretch we saw last year, should still see more than 50% of plays called be runs. While Baltimore called 1 pass for every 1.75 runs in Jackson's starts last season, Roman's offenses have historically had a pass-run ratio of 1-1.18.If that rate holds true in Baltimore, and if Roman's plays per season rate holds true, the Ravens offense would execute approximately 463 passes and 546 runs in 2019. That's another 5 passes on top of last season's per game pace, and a decrease of 8 runs per game, and would still have the Ravens finish bottom 4 in the league in total passes and first in the league in total runs, compared to last season's finishes.Projecting what Jackson would do with this sort of play volume and pass-run split is not an exact science. I don't have data regarding Roman's tendency to call designed runs for Kaepernick or Taylor, but 33% of Baltimore's total rushing attempts with Jackson as a starter were designed runs called for Jackson. If that rate were to hold into next season, Jackson would handle 180 designed runs based on projected team rushing attempts. I expect fewer than that; the Ravens don't want to kill Jackson, and when the QB with the 2nd-most designed rushing attempts ever handled 109 at 245 pounds, I can't project the 212-pound Jackson for 70 more. Splitting the difference at 145 designed rush attempts seems reasonable, and would mean that Jackson still handled over a quarter of called runs for Baltimore (and, presumably, the most designed runs for a QB ever).On 463 pass attempts, Jackson's 8.9% scramble rate (according to Hribar, and a number he claims is fairly sticky year-to-year ) would have him attempt another 46 rushes on broken plays (I don't have drop-back data, but he scrambled once for every 10 pass attempts last season). Using his 2018 per carry averages for each designed runs and scrambles, Jackson's 191 total projected rushing attempts in 2019 would see him gain 959 yards on the ground, a number that would give him the third-most rushing yards for a QB in a single season in NFL history, behind only Michael Vick's 1039 yards in 2006 and Bobby Douglass' 968-yard campaign in 1972. If Jackson's rushing TD rate remains stable from 2018, his 191 carries would mean rushing for 6 TDs in 2019.