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After next week’s election, legalization of adult-use marijuana will take center stage again in Trenton during the legislative lame duck session.

It remains to be seen whether Gov. Phil Murphy and his fellow Democrats in the Legislature will push a bill through legislatively before January or take cover behind voters by placing a referendum on the November 2020 ballot.

Regardless industry insiders are showing signs of optimism again, so the lingering question remains: If the stars align Murphy gets a bill to sign into law, when will consumers be able to legally purchase weed in New Jersey?

It depends on who you ask — estimates from insiders range from six months (on the more optimistic side) to 18 months.

“There have been good conversations in the past couple of weeks,” said Bill Caruso, a lobbyist and attorney at Archer Public Affairs. “The question becomes will they be afforded an opportunity to vote for the standalone bill?”

“I think a year to 18 months is reasonable to have some doors open if legislation passes in lame duck,” said Fruqan Mouzon, chair of McElroy, Deutsch, Mulvaney & Carpenter’s cannabis group and the former general counsel for the state Senate majority office. “But I’m not as optimistic as I was before. I hope I’m wrong. I would love to be wrong.”

In March, more than a year after Murphy was sworn into office, Senate President Steve Sweeney called off a the vote because there weren’t enough senators on board to to get it passed.

While Caruso said there’s a commitment by the Legislature to get it done to make sure they don’t leave lame duck empty-handed, there’s no guarantee.

“It’s 50/50,” Sweeney said on Wednesday. “I’m going to put my best effort into it."

Still even once it becomes law, part of the challenge is the current lack of suppliers and supply and the growing number of patients enrolled in the state Medicinal Marijuana Program, which is nearly at 60,000. Only six dispensaries and one satellite location are currently online, and the other six who were licensed last year have until December to get their plants in the ground.

Patients have long complained about the price, quality and availability of medical cannabis, but by adding potentially millions of adult-use customers to the equation, it’s easy to see an already strained system facing further shortages.

First things first...

The Cannabis Regulatory Commission needs to be appointed by Jan. 2 — three seats for Murphy, and then a seat each for Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin’s appointees — but there’s more.

The CRC will need offices at which to work along with staff and then they can get to the work of drafting and promulgating regulations, which will be subject to public comment.

All of which takes months before they can be formally adopted.

However, it is also possible for the CRC to adopt emergency regulations from the state Department of Health to expedite the process, said Mouzon.

Punt it to the voters

The ballot initiative proposal reared its head earlier this year and has refused to go away for one simple reason: It’s politically convenient for politicians.

Despite polling showing the majority of people in the Garden State and the United States support cannabis legalization, many state senators have balked at getting behind it. But if it goes to the voters and passes, then legislators will have to go along with the will of the people.

Part of the catch, though, is the referendum will have to go before voters this year and next to get approved. But that’s also part of the plan because 2020 is a presidential election year, which, in New Jersey, is expected to bring out throngs of voters.

Scott Rudder, president of the New Jersey CannaBusiness Association, said if the Legislature ultimately goes forward with a ballot initiative “then you are exactly where we are today but a year later” — which means adult-use sales would likely be pushed back to 2021 at the earliest.

“Right now, New Jersey has the third highest arrest rate in the country when it comes to simple cannabis possession, it’s more than 34,000 every year, it’s 88 people per day,” he said. “It would be a travesty for us to continue down that path, knowing that we can get it done this year. Knowing that we have the possibility to get it done now, the only thing we’re doing is denying justice and opportunity for something we know will pass on the ballot.”

Make the calls

No one hates losing more than a politician; so if they can avoid a loss, they will.

In the Assembly, there was no problem getting the votes in March, but the Senate, which was in spitting distance, couldn’t get to the finish line.

If Sweeney thinks he has the votes, he’ll put it to the floor, Mouzon said, but if he doesn’t, it’ll never make it to the floor.

Both Mouzon and Rudder said now is the time for supporters to get their voices heard especially by the state Senate.

“The more calls you can get to the Senate the better,” Mouzon said.

“If the industry and advocacy side does their job of informing our legislators about the importance of doing this now, we’re going to get it done now,” Rudder said. “This is a period of education and opportunity.”

An earlier version of this piece first appeared in NJ Cannabis Insider.

Justin Zaremba may be reached at jzaremba@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JustinZarembaNJ. Find NJ.com on Facebook.

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