The future of Windows 10 and the Universal Windows Platform (UWP) depends on more than just PCs. With Microsoft missing its goal of getting Windows onto "one billion devices" by half, where does Windows 10 go without phones?

I recently argued that Microsoft needs to come clean on its smartphone ambitions – if it has any. Conflating its "commitment to mobile" with all laptops, tablets, and to competitors' smartphone platforms will not do. While I have my biases – yes, I enjoy using Windows 10 Mobile – my call was not only because I want a new Windows phone. Instead, that analysis was really about Windows 10 and UWP as a platform. Without a smartphone OS, it is not clear how Microsoft will grow Windows 10 adoption. And I find that very concerning. If not smartphones, then what? On April 3, StatCounter claimed that based on its data Android use surpassed Windows usage across desktop, laptop, tablet, and mobile combined. StatCounter's numbers are subject to debate, but the overall trend based on browser use is not improbable. Best VPN providers 2020: Learn about ExpressVPN, NordVPN & more Smartphones are the now dominant computing platform. While "real" PCs remain vital for enterprises, professionals, and gamers, the best computers for consumers fit in their pockets. Currently, Microsoft sees UWP as an app platform for traditional PCs, laptops, tablets, Xbox, mixed reality (MR), Internet of Things (IoT), wearables, and phones. It's an ambitious goal. Developers can write an app once and send it to the device where it makes the most sense. Microsoft creates software "bridges" (such as Project Centennial) so developers can bring apps from and to other platforms.

The problem with that strategy is that the only popular category with significant mass adoption is smartphones, which is the weakest segment for Microsoft. Let's assume the company is finished with the smartphone category. The growth path for UWP is less obvious. MR is years from mass adoption, UWP on Xbox is barely a thing (is anyone using those third-party apps?), and I already covered traditional PCs. Without a play for smartphones, I have no idea how Windows 10 grows beyond 500 million users. I don't see how Microsoft will continue to attract developers to make UWP apps. Additional laptop and Surface sales will drive awareness and some adoption, but there won't be hundreds of millions of new PC owners soon (or likely ever). I understand MR, IoT, and even wearables are nascent categories and, in some ways, Microsoft is positioned to dominate at least one of those (MR). But in the consumer space Google, Apple, and Amazon are beating the company everywhere else. Whether it is the "smart home" voice assistants, watches, or phones, Microsoft is behind or nonexistent. On desktop, the web browser still dominates instead of UWP apps. UWP begins to make more sense as the display shrinks. After all, the very concept of "apps" in the modern sense begins with phones. Even I don't use many UWP apps on the Surface Studio. Give me a laptop, and my usage of UWP goes up. Put me on a smartphone, and suddenly I loathe using a web browser, and it's all about the apps. It is common sense. While UWP is a noble paradigm, the most significant market for it is the one Microsoft has less than one percent of (and is shrinking fast): phones. Apple pushed nearly 80 million iPhones just last year, and it has now sold more than one billion in total, according to research from Gartner. That's impressive because Apple has only 17.9 percent of the smartphone market with Android making up the other 82 percent. That's more than 300 million Android smartphones in just one year. That's a lot of apps, as well as a lot of opportunity for developers. And it does nothing for the UWP platform or Windows 10. This is about developers (developers, developers!) Microsoft's conundrum with mobile is a serious one, and it's not just because smartphones are chic. The future of Windows 10 and UWP needs an area of rapid and sustained growth, not only for adoption of the OS but for monetary and market incentive for developers to want to make UWP apps. I have said Microsoft needs to continue what it has been doing: reinventing device categories. Every Surface device so far has rethought the concept of computing. The Surface Studio is a brilliant re-take on the desktop space. Surface Pro and Surface Book popularized digital inking and 2-in-1s. Even HoloLens is setting the foundation for MR and holographic computing.