5 things to know about Tuesday's 8th Congressional District primary election

West Valley voters will settle on Republican and Democratic nominees to fill a vacant congressional seat on Tuesday. Here's what to look for as the 8th District votes are tallied.

1. Polls close at 7 p.m.

The race began in early December after Trent Franks resigned midway through his eighth term in Congress. It has been an eventful sprint to the primary election, which ends Tuesday night when the polls close at 7 p.m.

Beyond that, one Republican, Steve Montenegro, was caught up in a texting scandal that broke last week. That probably means he needs to do well in the initial counts to have any chance of winning the GOP primary.

In that race he faces former state Sen. Debbie Lesko, former state Rep. Phil Lovas, former Arizona Corporation Commissioner Bob Stump and former Graham County sheriff Richard Mack, as well as Clair Van Steenwyk, Chad Allen, Kevin Cavanaugh, Brenden Dilley, Stephen Dolgos, David Lien, Christopher Sylvester and Mark Yates.

In the Democratic primary, physician Hiral Tipirneni and Brianna Westbrook face off.

MORE: Lesko accused of moving $50K from campaign to a PAC that backs her

2. Results arrive after 8 p.m.

Election officials expect to release the tally of early votes at about 8 p.m. Most voters cast their ballots early, so this should reflect most of the voting that will happen.

The race is entirely located in the West Valley and the votes need to be transferred to Phoenix for a final tally. This means the final count probably won't be known until after 9 p.m.

LIVE AT 8 P.M.: Election results from Arizona's 8th Congressional District primary

3. Turnout is (relatively) high

Voters have tuned into the race more than expected, but it's mainly because of Democrats. Through Thursday, there were 63,000 ballots cast in the Republican primary and 33,000 for the Democrats. Those numbers will go higher as ballots are cast on Tuesday.

That translates to 30 percent turnout so far for Democrats and just under 34 percent for Republicans.

This is a contrast with the last time the West Valley had a race for an open seat, in 2002. That primary, held in September, along with all other primaries that year, drew 20 percent turnout from Democrats and the same 34 percent for Republicans. The district had different boundaries then, but still largely rested in the West Valley.

The Democratic interest is especially noteworthy considering the party didn't field a candidate in 2014 and 2016.

4. Seniors rule

This is an election dominated by older voters. According to figures tracked by the Secretary of State, the median age of voters through Thursday was 69.

Almost two thirds of the votes — 64 percent — were 65 or older. And more than 54 percent of early voters are women.

Overall, these are conservative voters, but they are also focused on issues like Social Security and Medicare.

MORE: Arizona among 20 states seeking repeal of Affordable Care Act mandate

There may also be more interest in gun-control legislation. A national Marist Poll taken last week on gun policy attitudes found that among those 60 and over, 79 percent said they thought laws on gun sales should be more strict. Only 1 percent wanted gun sales to be less restrictive.

Narrow majorities of those who identified themselves as Republicans favored stricter laws. Respondents in the Northeast were especially inclined to support stricter laws, but there was lopsided support in the South, West and Midwest as well.

Similarly, men support tighter controls and women really support it. Suburban voters clocked in at 81 percent to 1 percent.

Taken as a whole, it suggests that reflexive support for gun rights could be softer in the district than in years past and the issue of gun policy could be a factor moving into the special general election in April.

5. Peoria is the place

As of Thursday, about two-thirds of the votes cast in the Republican primary came from the Peoria-based legislative districts were former state Sen. Debbie Lesko and former state Rep. Phil Lovas reside.

That doesn't mean those voters supported Lesko and Lovas, but it does suggest the outcome of the GOP primary will be heavily influenced by people who have voted for them in the past.

By contrast, only 9 percent of the Republican ballots had come from Montenegro's district as of last week.

Ultimately, the 8th District is relatively compact and suburban. There aren't significant differences between the issues central to a voter in Goodyear and someone in Anthem or Peoria.

READ MORE:

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