POVERTY may be rising in Europe and the United States, places that thought they had conquered it, but in Latin America it continues to fall. In its annual estimate released this week, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reckons that 30.4% of the region's population is living below national poverty lines. This not only maintains a steady fall (from a peak of 48.4% in 1990), but is the lowest figure since more or less reliable statistics began to be collected in the 1970s—and probably ever (see chart).

True, population growth means that in absolute terms the numbers in poverty have not fallen as far: 174m in 2011, down from 225m in 2002 but up from 136m in 1980. But ECLAC also confirms another positive trend detected by other researchers: although Latin American remains the world's most unequal place, income inequality in the region has begun to decline, too. Of the 18 countries for which there are data, only in the Dominican Republic (DR) and (especially) Guatemala did inequality widen between 2002 and 2008; since 2008, only in the DR, Ecuador and Paraguay has it done so.

Two things lie behind this social progress. The biggest is the region's strong economic performance of recent years: Latin America's GDP expanded by 5.9% last year and most forecasters expect this year's figure to be around 4.5%. This strong recovery meant that the 2008 recession in the region caused only a slight blip. Most of the decline in inequality is attributable to higher wages, which in turn are partly a function of younger Latin Americans being better educated than their parents. The second factor in declining income inequality is better-targeted social policies, especially cash-transfer schemes for the poor.

But sustaining the progress may become harder. Troubles elsewhere mean that Latin America will be lucky to grow by much more than 3.5% next year. Higher food prices meant that poverty rose in Mexico and Honduras in 2010. And the region's extreme poverty, where income does not cover the need for basic food, is stubbornly stuck at around 13%. (Several governments, including in Brazil and Colombia, have unveiled initiatives targeted at the poorest.) ECLAC also highlights a couple of factors that militate against greater income equality. One is that poorer and less-educated women have more children, and less child care, than their richer sisters. Another is that output is disproportionately concentrated in a few large firms.