Iceland held a general election yesterday. The result has caused much confusion amongst pundits and the political class: 8 parties in parliament? An anti-migrant party getting into parliament in a country with few immigrants? How did Iceland end up with such a fragmented parliament?

To look for the answer, you have to look at the recent history of Icelandic politics. Traditionally, the centre left Social Democrats and centre right Independence Party have been the two largest parties, with the centrist Progressive Party and Left-Greens following behind closely.

In 2009, the Social Democrats, riding a wave of anger about the financial crisis and collapse of the banks, came to power, and formed a coalition with the Left-Greens. However, the SDs once in power largely continued the policies of the previous government, often with little alternative, to meet the demands of international creditors. The result was that, in the 2013 election, the Social Democratic vote collapsed, and this continued in the 2016 election, with the other major parties also suffering from Icelandic anger over the painful austerity measures. This collapse in support for the traditional parties resulted in fragmentation, similar to what we have seen in other countries such as Germany and Italy.

After the 2016 election, the conservative Independence Party formed a 3 party coalition, with the Reform Party and Bright Future. However, the government was unstable, having a small majority of just 1 seat. The government fell after it was revealed that the father of the Prime Minister, Bjarni Benediktsson, had signed a letter which called for overturning the sentence of a convicted paedophile, and that the government had attempted to cover this up. Under an obscure Icelandic law, that has faced severe criticism from women and child protection groups, the conviction of a criminal can be overturned after 5 years if 3 people “Of good character” sign a letter. Benediktsson had been told about the decision by his father to sign the letter, but attempted to cover it up and withheld the information from parliament until it was leaked to the media. Facing a no confidence vote over the scandal, Benediktsson was forced to call a general election.

The result of the election was confusing. The right wing coalition had lost its majority, but the centre left parties had not won a majority either, and had in fact only gained 1 seat when the losses for the leftist Pirate party are taken into account. The strong result for the Social Democratic Alliance and the Centre Party is striking, with the Social Democrats seeing a significant surge in vote share, bringing the party back to where it was in 2013. Most pollsters did not foresee the result for the populist People’s Party, which is described by the NY Times as “Railing against immigration, poverty, and corruption” and which has criticised benefits for asylum seekers and foreign migrants, and its success at getting into parliament mirrors the similar rise of populist and anti-establishment parties across the developed world.

Post-election, the leader of the Green Left, Katrín Jakobsdottir, said she would try to form a 4 party centre left coalition, with the SDs, Progressive Party, and Pirates. The government would have the smallest possible majority, and would have to be propped up by Gunlaugsson and the Centre Party too. Such a government would be unstable and liable to being held hostage by Gunlaugsson and the Centre Party, which has many ideological differences with the left of centre parties, and which would be equally comfortable with propping up a right wing coalition led by the Independence Party. Gunlaugsson is the big winner of the election, emerging as “Kingmaker” and with the potential to make either Jakobsdottir or Benediktsson prime minister. It remains to be seen what kind of government emerges. However, it is unlikely that whatever government is formed will be able to last the full 4 year term, with yet another early election likely to be held eventually. It appears that, 8 years after the financial crisis, Icelandic politics has still not regained its old stability and predictability. It remains to be seen if that will ever be recovered.

About the author: Mohammed Ahmed, proud 2015 graduate of democracy