DraftKings salaries finally came out today after the tournament was pushed into Monday and Snedeker’s impressive score posted on Sunday held on for the win. It was a good week for the DFS Army community, several of us reported big wins and we hope to keep it rolling this week. The terrible weather at Torrey Pines ended up screwing over a lot of people and it’s best to somewhat ignore the results of last week, at least what happened in the final days. I wouldn’t overreact to some of the guys who managed to sneak up on the leader board either, the gale force winds were an anomaly and we shouldn’t see that more than a few times a year. You have to remember that a lot of newer players pick their guys by just checking out the game log. Last week’s ownership levels showed me that people aren’t looking at course history and stats as much as they are the game log, name recognition, and recent form.

Course Preview

The Phoenix Open has been played at TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course since 1987 so we finally have a solid course history record to go off of after a few weeks of multi-course events. It’s the most attended golf tournament of the year-selling around 500,000 tickets last year-so expect large crowds. (stage fright factor? lol) It’s a 7,200 yard par 71 with a high slope rating of 138. It’s a desert setting with large bunkers and no water traps. The fairways are wide and greens are big so this could definitely be considered a bomber’s course. Looking back at our stat sheet, Driving Distance hasn’t lead to top finishes as much as at Torrey Pines last week, but players with distance have fared well here. SG: Tee to Green, Putting, and Greens in Regulation stick out as the top stats as usual. The key ranges that stick out are Approaches 150-175 Yards and Putting 10+ Feet.

High End Picks

Bubba Watson $12,100

Bubba has elite course history here and is a statistical fit for the course. He’s unsurprisingly the most expensive on the board. 12k is a lot for one person, and at that price you’d need a top 5 finish to pay off. Bubba’s got 3 top 5s in 4 years.

Brandt Snedeker $11,800

Fresh off the win and headed to yet another course he’s dominated in the past. He has 4 top 10 finishes and has only 1 missed cut in 9 tries here. Brandt comes in with supreme form, finishing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in his last 3 tournaments which will probably make him the chalk top-end play despite his price.

Brooks Koepka $11,300

Brooks is the defending Phoenix Open champion and he plays a similar bombing style to Bubba. His eagle and birdie %s often push him over the 100 fantasy point mark which he has hit in his last 2 tournaments. He’s also 4th in the key range of 150-175 yards.

Hideki Matsuyama $11,000

Matsuyama disappointed a lot of people last week, blowing up on Friday and missing the cut after finishing Thursday in the top 5. This will naturally get people off of him and lower his ownership % in GPP. I think he’s a great player to go in on this week because of that, and his 2 starts here have been T2 and T4.

Kevin Kisner $10,400

A stronger field means 8 players come in more expensive than Kisner but none but Snedeker have been hotter- He’s posted 4 straight top 10s. Let the field take the local favorite Phil at $10,600, I’ll take Kisner.

Kevin Na $10,000

Another Kevin that’s off to a hot start. This one has 4 top 3 finishes in 6 events. He also has a solid history at Phoenix with 4 top 10 finishes.

Justin Thomas $9,300

Thomas plays a similar style to Bubba and Koepka but at a much cheaper price tag. He did well here last year- posting a T17 and outside of a MC at the Sony he’s been playing good golf so far this season. Vegas seem to like him as well.

Webb Simpson $9,200

Just another example of good form meets good course history. 2 top 20 finishes in his last 2 starts and 3 top 10s in his last 3 tries here. Webb never seems to be highly owned so he could make a great GPP play especially over 9k.

Mid Range Plays

Brendan Steele $8,800

Steele was playing great golf all week until the Sunday weather got to him. He’s your typical bomber and his course history sticks out here- 3 top 6 finishes and 5/5 cuts made.

Ryan Moore $8,500

Course history is going to be a huge factor here because there are so many guys who consistently do well here and Moore is another one of those guys- he has 5 top 20 finishes in 7 years. He hasn’t played since October but in the fall season he posted 2 10th place finishes.

Charles Howell III $8,200

CH3 stays on a tear and yet his price goes down considerably. I expected him to be one of the highest owned players last week but he really wasn’t. Will this be the week? He’s riding 8 straight made cuts with 7 top 20 finishes. His course history here isn’t as impressive as at Torrey Pines but he’s still posted a couple top 10s and only 2 missed cuts in the last decade. Still a cash game lock.

Tony Finau $7,800

Finau’s price still isn’t rising and with him sneaking up to a top 20 finish last week you may expect his ownership to jump. I don’t think it will though because Si Woo Kim is the same price and there are a TON of plays in this range so spread ownership out a lot. If Thomas is a budget Bubba, consider Finau a budget Thomas, except he drives it even farther.

Si Woo Kim $7,800

5 straight top 20 finishes. Kim is looking like Kevin Na last year and who knows when this train will end. At this price expect the 2nd highest owned player last week to stay owned in abundance. There are lots of plays in this range so fading Kim and picking other guys at the same price may pay off big time in gpp if he somehow misses the cut.

Jamie Lovemark $7,700

Lovemark had a whopping 27% ownership and yet another good finish will likely mean he sees overwhelming ownership again. With a salary even cheaper than Kim now he could reach the 25-30% owned mark in some tournaments. I think he makes for a solid fade in gpp. He’s played here twice before as an amateur and missed the cuts both times. Obviously he’s a much better golfer now and the experience may help, but I’m looking for any reason to fade such a chalky play.

Scott Piercy $7,700

Piercy is another player who was doing well last week but got obliterated by weather on Sunday. He’s still perfect on cuts for the year and he has 5 top 15 finishes in 7 tries here. Great pivot off of the players in this price range

Robert Streb $7,700

Of course as everyone gets off of Streb he finds his way back into the top 20 last week. Streb nabbed a T10 last year at Phoenix and it started getting the ball rolling for him last season. He’s generally a solid cut maker and will be low owned due to the abundance of plays at this dollar tag.

Martin Laird $7,700

Laird had his first good start of the year last week with a T8 and could keep it going at a course he’s done it at before. He tied for 5th here last year and T3 in 2011. Even if he doesn’t place high again he has a good nose for cuts and could be a strong cash game play.

Graham DeLaet $7,700

DeLaet ended up finishing +12 at Torrey Pines, doing worse than everyone else who made the cut. Still if we look past the damage 50mph winds can do, you’ll notice that DeLaet has been back in form making 5/6 cuts and heading into an event he came 7th in last year and 2nd the year before. Like everyone else in this saturated $7000-$8000 range expect his ownership to be lowered due to the plethora of plays around him.

Hunter Mahan $7,600

Last year Mahan started the season by making 12 straight cuts. In 2014 he started with 7 straight, in 2013 8 straight, and in 2012 9 straight. Mahan has made 4/5 cuts so far this season so look for him to continue his early season dominance. On top of this, he’s made 6 straight cuts at this tournament with a win in 2010 and a T4 in 2014. Lock him into your cash game rosters.

Harris English $7,500

English took a drastic price cut despite a decent finish last week. He’s made every cut he’s played here in 4 years with 2 of those years finishing in the top 15. He’s another guy who just makes cuts and should be a good consideration for cash games.

Smylie Kaufman $7,500

They just refuse to raise his price despite making his 8th straight cut on the year and placing high yet again. He was the 3rd highest owned player to Lovemark and Kim last week and it looks like those 3 will stay the chalk in the mid-range. Despite the ownership I probably wouldn’t fade Kaufman myself, I’d rather fade Lovemark or Kim.

Jason Bohn $7,400

Miss one cut and you drop $3,000 in price I guess. Sure the stronger field has something to do with it but that’s still an insanely dramatic change. He still has 3 top 3s on the year so he’s worth a shot in gpp but be wary of his bad course history here.

Value Plays

K.J. Choi $7,100

Sure people will be on him now after an incredible showing at the Farmers, but he actually has a solid track record at this course and makes for a safe cash game play.

Patrick Rodgers $7,100

I don’t care that he missed the cut last week, that will only lower his ownership . He’s still a great bomber playing a bomber’s course and I think he’s gonna bounce back in a big way similar to Streb last week.

Matt Jones $6,900

Vegas odds have Jones sticking out in relation to salary. His winning odds are up there with the guys in the upper 7k range. He can hit the ball a mile, has been making cuts, and has done well here in his recent performances.

Aaron Baddeley $6,900

Baddeley is a former Phoenix Open champion who’s fresh off a sneaky T8 last week. He’s made 7 straight cuts here and obviously feels this course, his value well exceeds his price tag.

Daniel Summerhays $6,900 (fade)

He sticks out a lot, considering he’s a pretty decent player who’s 6/6 in cuts through the year. This actually is not a pick, this is a fade warning. The reason being he’s missed the cut here all 4 times he’s participated.

Keegan Bradley $6,800

There’s just no reason Bradley should ever be this cheap. He’s just too good of a player, and his course history here is solid. I think DK is overreacting to 2 straight missed cuts and he represents a good true contrarian value. I’ve always viewed the art of being ‘contrarian’ as this- don’t pick bad players/scrubs to be contrarian. They’ll be low owned but they still suck. Take great players who are struggling, they’ll be low owned but you know they have it in them to actually go really low.

Anirban Lahiri $6,700

Another overreaction to a missed cut. A top world ranked player at a scrub price is always a good thing.

Harold Varner III $6,600

A head scratching price for a guy who’s done so well so far this year. He was 5th after day 1 and looked really good last week. He’ll be able to show off his driving skills at another bomber’s course this week. He was very low owned last week so hopefully that stays the case this week.

Kevin Chappell $6,500

Chappell sticks out like a sore thumb at this price. Chappell’s Vegas odds far exceed anyone else’s in this range. He’s long off the tee and ranks 11th in Greens in Regulation on the season.

Will Wilcox $6,400

Okay now this is just disrespectful. He was just a $9,000 guy and now he’s scraping the bottom of the barrel. He was so great last season that I just have to have him at this price. I still believe dammit.

J.J. Henry $5,900

Super cheap and 5/5 on cuts for the year. Came T2 here… 10 years ago

Tools

Waste Management Cheet Sheet

Waste Management Stat Report