Mesoscale Discussion 1567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Areas affected...Southeast WI...Southern Lake Michigan...Southwest Lower MI...Far Northern IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251507Z - 251700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A multicellular cluster of storms from southeast WI across southern Lake Michigan will continue to pose a risk for isolated hail and occasionally strong downbursts for the next few hours as it moves into southwest Lower MI and vicinity. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of multicellular storms extending from southeast WI across southern Lake Michigan. This cluster is being supported by modest warm-air advection across the front extending from southwest Lower MI northwestward across southern WI into east-central MN. A portion of this front across far southeast WI and northern IL have been modified by outflow from this cluster. Much of this activity is elevated, but some of the cells along the southeastern periphery of the cluster are gradually approaching the frontal zone. Even so, the downstream air mass has yet to destabilize, suggesting that any severe potential over the next few hours will remain isolated. Thereafter, a relatively greater severe potential may materialize as this cluster moves into the middle OH Valley. Given the elevated storm character, hail is the most likely risk for the next hour or two, although a few stronger downbursts may also reach the surface. ..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/25/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 44358918 43978712 42868495 41438519 41808708 42518805 43908975 44358918