For senators looking over their shoulder at the midterm voters, it seems as if voting against Kavanaugh has its advantages. “The increased opposition to Kavanaugh has come, in particular, from women over 50 (who were +3 on Kavanaugh’s confirmation in August and are -7 now) suburban women (-6 in August and -11 now), independents (who were +15 in August and -16 now) and seniors (+9 in August to -10 now).”

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Republicans still back Kavanaugh overwhelmingly (73 percent), but everyone else is quite negative (independents oppose him 37 to 21 percent; Democrats oppose him 66 to 8 percent). That gives red-state Democrats some breathing room to oppose Kavanaugh and raises the stakes for Republicans running in competitive districts, especially those with plenty of the voters who have shifted most dramatically against Kavanaugh (e.g., suburban women).

Republican senators find themselves in a tough spot. If they ridicule or dismiss Ford, many voters outside the hardcore GOP base will be outraged. If she comes across as sincere and the senators vote for Kavanaugh anyway, the backlash from independents, women and Democrats may be fierce. However, if the senators abandon Kavanaugh, the already depressed GOP base may not show up in November. The best they can do is keep their heads down, ask Ford no questions if she appears and pray Kavanaugh withdraws on his own.

One can understand then why Republicans want to rush this through. The biggest concern is that more evidence comes out before the vote, but that’s not the only concern. The longer Kavanaugh sticks around, the less voters approve, giving red-state Democrats cover to vote against him and making it that much harder for moderate Republicans to stick with him.

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