Premier Doug Ford’s plan to fight climate change is not based on “sound evidence” and will fall well short of Ontario’s 2030 greenhouse gas reduction targets, auditor general Bonnie Lysyk warns in a damning new report.

Despite repeated assurances from Ford as recently as Tuesday that the effort is on track, an internal analysis by the environment ministry acknowledges that proposed measures won’t do the job, the auditor revealed in her annual report released Wednesday.

It confirms similar warnings from climate change activists amid escalating warnings from the scientific community about the rapid pace of global warming.

“They need to look at more ways to reduce emissions,” Lysyk said after presenting her four-volume report, noting the Paris Agreement target is to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030.

“Ontario is warming faster than the global average.”

But the Progressive Conservative government’s calculations have been flawed on many levels, the auditor said, such as the inclusion of impacts from renewable energy projects and the previous Liberal administration’s cap-and-trade program that were scrapped in the summer of 2018.

The environment ministry also projects sales of electric vehicles will rise to 1.3 million in 2030 from 41,000 this year but has “no policy mechanisms” to drive an increase after cancelling cash incentives for buyers and the installation of more charging stations more than a year ago, Lysyk found.

An end to cash incentives, which were bankrolled by the Liberal cap-and-trade program that generated $1.9 billion annually, has resulted in a drop of 53 per cent in the number of electric vehicles purchased or leased.

As well, “some emissions reductions were double counted and overstated” because they are targeted in more than one program, said the report.

The slip-ups show “there’s no doubt this government is trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the people of Ontario,” said NDP Leader Andrea Horwath.

“They are going backwards on so many of the strategies needed to meet the targets,” including last year’s cancellation of more than 750 renewable energy projects, she added.

Environment Minister Jeff Yurek tried to downplay criticisms in the report, saying “we’re going to evolve this plan and reach our targets.”

“The auditor general didn’t say it was terrible,” he added.

But many critics have, including Green Leader Mike Schreiner, who said the latest estimates are that the Paris targets are too low and greenhouse gases must be cut to 39 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030.

“If they cared about climate change, they’d actually have a plan that works,” he told reporters. “We have no more days to waste.”

The auditor general also found troubles in the health care system, court backlogs caused by a lack of modernization, and use of food that is past its best-before date in some nursing homes.

About 67,000 of the one million hospital patients discharged annually suffered some sort of negative health effects, the second-highest rate in Canada after Nova Scotia, Lysyk said.

Nurses who have been “repeatedly terminated or banned” for incompetence at hospitals are hired by other hospitals because of nondisclosure arrangements ahead of patient safety, she found.

“Because of concerns about potential civil legal actions, during an employment reference check hospitals may not freely share with potential employers a nurse’s complete and truthful employment and performance history,” the auditor wrote.

In long-term care homes, where 77,000 frail and mostly elderly citizens live, audits found diets were high in sugar and sodium and too low in fibre.

At some homes, there was 93 per cent more sugar, 53 per cent more sodium and 34 per cent less fibre than recommended.

“The high sugar content of menus can contribute to heart disease, stroke, obesity, diabetes, high blood cholesterol and cancer,” Lysyk said in the audit.

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Health Minister Christine Elliott said she was “very concerned” by the nursing home findings and stressed that the sector will be told that “patients deserve better.”

In a detailed look at five unspecified nursing homes, the auditor found some food was used after its best-before date — including liquid whole eggs that were three months beyond their expiry.

“Such food may still be safe but can lose some of its freshness, flavour and nutritional value,” she wrote.

On climate change, Lysyk devoted a separate 180-page book on the Ford government’s challenges as it struggles to meet the Paris target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 17.6 megatonnes within 11 years.

As it now stands, the government plan has the potential to achieve reductions of between 6.3 megatonnes and 13 megatonnes, which would be just one-third to two-thirds of the goal. The environment ministry’s own analysis now estimates the initiatives in the plan would bring a reduction of about 10.9 megatonnes.

The auditor did not mention the Tories’ controversial gas-pump stickers that attack federal carbon-pricing measures, or the province’s court challenge of carbon pricing, but Lysyk did criticize the government for spending $4 million on TV, radio and digital advertising blasting Ottawa’s plan.

“We took the view that a primary objective of this campaign was to foster a negative impression of the federal government and its carbon pricing policy,” she said.

Treasury Board President Peter Bethlenfalvy defended the ad, which showed nickels falling from gas pumps.

“We wouldn’t have put it out if we didn’t think it was well spent,” he said.

Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser said the report proves “there’s no plan” when it comes to the Tories’ strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“Last year was a year when they just took down whatever they could take down,” Fraser said of the decision to axe Ontario’s cap-and-trade alliance with Quebec and California. “They didn’t think about what was going to happen.”

The Conservatives also scrapped the independent office of the environmental commissioner last year, shifting the responsibilities to Lysyk’s auditors.

Keith Stewart, an energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada, said the government needs to change course.

“Now that the auditor general has unmasked Doug Ford’s so-called climate plan as a fraud, the question is what will his government do about it,” said Stewart.

“Ontario needs to do its part to deal with the climate emergency and that starts with kicking climate deniers out of cabinet and implementing programs that will actually reduce carbon pollution.”

That was an apparent reference to Energy Minister Greg Rickford, who has been under fire for citing a U.S. website that denies the scientific consensus on climate change.

Correction - Dec. 4, 2019: This article was edited from a previous version that mistakenly said Canada’s target under the Paris Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 17.6 megatonnes.

Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

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