Illustration: Shen Lan /GT





The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is undoubtedly one of the more renowned think tanks on international affairs in the US and beyond. Recently, CFR issued a special report titled "Xi Jinping on the Global Stage," authored by Kurt Campbell, former US assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs, and Robert Blackwill, a CFR senior fellow.



The CFR report argues that China's foreign policy may well be driven increasingly by the risk of domestic political instability. It further argues that Chinese nationalism, "long a pillar of the state's legitimacy," will most probably be stimulated and intensified in order to, among others, "compensate for the political harm of a slower economy."



While these rather pessimistic outlooks on China's socio-economic situation and its influence on China's foreign policy would bode a sad outcome for all in the region if realized, a more realistic and insightful assessment of China and its current blues would lead to a more nuanced scenario for China and its international dealings.



There is scarcely any doubt that China, like many other countries, has already experienced a few years of what the officials dub a "new normal economic situation," with growth figures stepping down from their previously impressive double-digit figures for most of the past two decades or so, to the relatively low figure of around 7 percent.



At least in the short run, a lowered growth number is actually beneficial to China's long-term economic development. For too long a period, in the rush toward reform and opening up its economy, much of China has focused on boosting the quantitative aspects of its booming economy. As the "world's factory," units upon units of production were relentlessly rammed up, often with scant attention paid to the astounding environmental impact and the sometimes questionable quality of the products.



A lowered but still substantial expectation for economic growth, as presently promulgated by the Chinese authorities, should hopefully usher in a period of calmer reflection upon the long-term prospects of the Chinese economy, especially on the innumerable costs of rampant environmental destruction and neglect of product and service quality.



That is perhaps why, in the recent 13th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese authorities stress on innovation, with its implications for quality improvements, and green growth as among the main engines for its economic development.



A slowed economy, in this sense, presents not an insurmountable crisis for China, but, if adroitly handled, an opportunity for its economic rejuvenation. And China's senior leadership clearly sees it as such.



And nationalism is not to be recklessly toyed with, in China and beyond. China, like many of its neighbors, is a multiracial country, with more than 50 ethnic groups thus far living reasonably peacefully within its borders.



Calls for nationalism or, worse, jingoism in China will only open the proverbial can of worms, inevitably leading to social chaos, possibly spilling into violence and destruction. That is anathema by the Chinese authorities, whose priority is the maintenance of social stability in a massive and populous country like China.



That is why another key aspect of the latest Five-Year Plan is the concept of "inclusiveness." The idea there is to make sure the fruits of economic development are enjoyed by every part of society.



China has been vigorously promoting its "One Belt, One Road" initiative in the region, aiming to build up more comprehensive and strategic relationships with most regional countries.



China surely sees that a more nationalistic stance will only frustrate its avowed goals of befriending more neighbors on a win-win basis.



Instead, what China should do and has been doing is to encourage more of its businesses, both State-owned and small-and-medium enterprises, to step out of their comfort zones and undertake commercial endeavors abroad, starting with Southeast Asia.



I agree with Campbell and Blackwill that the US "grand strategy for Asia" should seek "to avoid a US-China confrontation." Such a confrontation will do no one in the region good - not the US, not China, and certainly not Southeast Asia.



The authors are also right to urge the expeditious passing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a humongous free-trade-plus agreement, by the US Congress.



The US and other signatories should welcome China's eventual accession into the TPP fold. And China should also seriously assess its TPP prospects, especially in view of its previous WTO accession having substantially uplifted the quality of its economy.



With enhanced trade and investment between China and its neighbors, and common prosperity thus lurking in the horizon, nationalism will have to take a distant back seat.



The author is a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn