Since the EU Referendum result in 2016, virtually everyone believed that Brexit would happen unless somehow it could be stopped by MPs on the opposition benches or through strong public pressure. Almost nobody thought the government would fail to deliver on its promise to make the UK leave the European Union collapsing under the weight of the enormity of this task.

That is, except for me. More than three years ago, I became known worldwide as the "expert" on Brexit who claimed that "Britain will never leave the EU".

My view was simple: there were 83,000 or more EU laws. Two years was an impossibly short time frame in which to form a definitive view about which of these should be kept, amended or repealed. And such a view would be necessary to form a viable vision for how Brexit would work in practice beyond empty campaign slogans. To "take back control" there needed to be a concrete perspective about what this means in practice.

And my view has come closest to getting this confusing Brexit saga right.

While many might hope the government's plans for Brexit might be prevented, my argument was that these plans were simply not up to the complex task of implementation. For example, how could we increase border controls for the UK overall, potentially diverting from the Common Travel Area, while maintaining no controls at all along the border in Northern Ireland? This clash should have been obvious a mile away, but it wasn't spotted by a Conservative political elite that routinely forgets about Northern Ireland. (In the current UK citizenship test handbook, immigrants must know how to contact the House of Commons, Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament, yet Stormont was apparently forgotten.) Solving this border clash is all the more difficult because the government has said nothing more concrete than it wishes to diverge from EU rules, but fails to say how it wishes to do so. A crucial missing piece in this jigsaw if any way forward is to be worked out.

Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Show all 76 1 /76 Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Crowds march through central London Getty Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters gather in Parliament Square Led By Donkeys Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Mayor of London Sadiq Khan joins protesters PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit protesters fill Parliament Square in London PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march A demonstrator marches EPA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People's Vote Final say march - 19 October 2019 Angela Christofilou Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters push a float depicting Dominic Cummings using Boris Johnson as a puppet during the Final Say Brexit march in London PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march EU supporters react after the result of the vote on the deal delay was announced at the House of Commons REUTERS Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march A demonstrator carries his dog draped in EU flag AP Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Thousands of people taking part in a People's Vote march AFP/Getty Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters use their flags to shelter from the rain Getty Images Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters march towards Parliament Square Getty Images Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit demonstrators carry placards and EU flags AP Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Sir Oliver Letwin MP in Parliament Square, London, during an an anti-Brexit, Let Us Be Heard rally, after it was announced that the Letwin amendment, which seeks to avoid a no-deal Brexit on October 31, has been accepted PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Thousands of people taking part in a People's Vote march UK BROADCASTERS POOL/AFP via Get Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march A protester with "Bollocks to Brexit" stickers on his head Getty Images Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Demonstrators march EPA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Britain's main opposition Labour Party shadow Secretary of State for Exiting the EU Keir Starmer, shadow Home Secretary Dianne Abbott, shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer John McDonnell, shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry speaks on stage in Parliament Square AFP via Getty Images Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit supporters cheer outside parliament AP Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march A EU supporter waves flags REUTERS Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit supporters AP Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters shout and chant demanding a final say Getty Images Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Police look towards protesters Getty Images Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Pro-Brexit protesters outside the Houses of Parliament in London PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People taking part in an Anti-Brexit, Let Us Be Heard march head to Parliament Square in London PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People taking part in an Anti-Brexit, Let Us Be Heard march in Trafalgar Square PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit supporters cheer outside parliament AP Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People taking part in an Anti-Brexit, Let Us Be Heard march past Trafalgar Square PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters shout and chant Getty Images Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Cory (7) sits on his father's shoulders as protesters march towards Parliament Square Getty Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march People attend the 'Together for the Final Say' march EPA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters march towards Parliament Square Getty Images Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Mayor of London Sadiq Khan speaks on stage PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march A woman in EU costume EPA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit protesters fill Parliament Square in London PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit protesters AP Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit protesters hold an Independent banner Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters hold an anti-Brexit placard by The Independent stall during the Final Say Brexit march in London Tom Richell Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit protesters in Parliament Square, London, PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Demonstrators hold placards and EU flags AFP/Getty Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march An anti-Brexit protester joins in the Final Say Brexit march on 19 October AP Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march EU supporters march in London REUTERS Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Sir Patrick Stewart and Paul McGann join in the Final Say Brexit march in London on 19 October PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march EU supporters march Reuters Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march A demonstrator shouts into a megaphone as she marches AFP via Getty Images Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march A dog dressed in an anti-Brexit placard is walked in the Final Say Brexit march in London EPA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march EU supporters march REUTERS Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march A morris dancer takes part in the Final Say Brexit march in London PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Whippets are dressed in EU flag clothing during the Final Say Brexit march in London AP Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters march towards parliament in the Final Say Brexit march in London on 19 October 2019 PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march An anti-Brexit demonstrator takes part in the Final Say Brexit march in London AFP/Getty Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march EU supporters call on the government to give Britons a vote on the final Brexit deal Reuters Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit protesters Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march An anti-Brexit protester Angela Christofilou/The Independent Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Anti-Brexit protesters demonstrate in London during the Final Say Brexit march on 19 October AP Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters push a float depicting Dominic Cummings using Boris Johnson as a puppet during the Final Say Brexit march in London AFP/Getty Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Protesters march towards parliament from Park Lane in the Final Say Brexit march in London on 19 October 2019 PA Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march Marchers visit The Independent stall during the Final Say March in London Tom Richell Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march An anti-Brexit protester holds a sign calling for a Final Say during a march in London EPA

My position has not been popular – or, at least, it wasn't at first. Most doubted I could be correct given the repeated reassurances May gave the public that she would deliver Brexit. Since she left office, to quote her famous words, we can say "nothing has changed, nothing has changed" under Boris Johnson either. Like Theresa May, Johnson offers similar promises that can't and won't be kept.

A superficial difference between May and Johnson may be thought to be the latter's sincerity. Certainly, Johnson knows his political legacy rests entirely on the imminent enactment of Brexit in some form – even if his "new" deal is little different and even worse than May's in weakening our rights and protections. Yes, parliamentary arithmetic was not on Johnson's side. But neither is his government's true commitment to Brexit. If they were truly so earnest in scaring the EU with a deal or no deal outcome, then why was virtually all Brexit preparation funds spent on advertising campaigns instead of actually getting people and new policies in place?

If Brexit by any name so important to delivery, what explains the failure to compromise by May or Johnson to get something – anything – passed?

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Far more time and energy has been spent searching for scapegoats to blame for the government's failure to deliver Brexit than in getting bogged down in ensuring it did happen. We can only conjecture as to why this is the case from one prime minister to the next – and I believe will remain the case, December general election or none. Perhaps it's in the knowledge that any Brexit will damage the economy and that government would be punished at the polls for it afterwards. Or maybe it's in the hope that either a lost court challenge or if the EU did not agree an extension they could be criticised for blocking a referendum result that May and Johnson have little genuine interest in seeing happen.

We might never know their reasons but there are serious questions Leavers should ask themselves about the sincerity of this government in doing what it says. After all, Johnson is not best known for his veracity and there's little evidence that I can see that anything has changed now.

If we take anything away from the last three long years, we shouldn't mistake repeated reassurances that Brexit will happen as evidence that these promises won't be broken. As long as impossibly short time scales for enacting massive, complex legal changes remain in place, Brexit is no more likely to happen now than when Article 50 was first triggered. There was no plan at the start and little, if any, progress made since.

Not only do I further predict no Brexit before Christmas, but I expect we'll still be in the EU for some time to come at the rate we're going now.