US government shutdown: what is it, will it happen and who's to blame?

Donald Trump and Congress face a deadline of midnight on Friday to pass federal funding bills or see the government partially shut down, with the budget fight centered on Trump’s demand for $5bn to fund a wall along the US-Mexico border.

The Senate passed a short-term spending bill without the wall money on Wednesday evening in an attempt to kick the can down the road, but, to the surprise of his Republican colleagues, Trump said on Thursday that he would not sign it.

What is a partial government shutdown?

A partial shutdown will occur if spending bills are not passed by Congress and signed into law by midnight on Friday. The threatened shutdown is partial because 75% of government funding has already been approved for the budget year that started in October. That includes money for the military, which would be unaffected by a shutdown. It’s the other 25% of government spending that’s at issue, but a shutdown could cut off spending for nine of the 15 cabinet-level federal departments, including Homeland Security, Justice, Transportation, Interior, Agriculture and State.

Why could it happen?

Trump has been demanding $5bn to help build his proposed border wall, and had indicated he would not sign spending bills that don’t include it. Democrats refuse to approve that, but might support an offer of up to $1.6bn for border security. The White House indicated on Tuesday it might be ready to back down, but Trump reversed that position on Thursday by vowing not to sign a stopgap spending bill passed by the Republican majority in the Senate on Wednesday.

What will it look like if a shutdown occurs?

About 800,000 federal employees would stop getting paid if a shutdown happens, according to a report prepared by Democrats on the Senate appropriations committee. Of those, about 380,000 would stop working. That includes almost all of Nasa and Housing and Urban Development staff, 80% of the National Parks Service, and more than 50,000 workers at the Internal Revenue Service. The other 420,000 workers, deemed essential, would still have to report to work if a shutdown occurs, but won’t get pay checks as long as the impasse continues.

Those still required to work include border patrol agents, Transportation Security Administration screeners, prison guards and FBI agents. Federal workers would probably get paid back eventually, something that Congress would have to approve.

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Most of the vital public-facing functions of the federal government would continue, either because their agencies are not part of the shutdown or because they are carried out by workers deemed essential and required to work anyway. Mail would be delivered, social security checks would go out, and TSA screeners would staff airport checkpoints.

A number of national attractions, like the Washington Monument, Smithsonian museums, and Statue of Liberty would probably be closed. National parks have sometimes been closed during shutdowns, though it is also possible parks could remain open with limited facilities and staff.

The longer a shutdown drags on, the more likely the public will feel its effects. The Federal Housing Administration would delay the approval of home loans, according to the Democrats’ report. The USDA would shutter farm service centers. Payments to local public housing agencies would be delayed. Funding for food stamps and free school lunches could conceivably run out, though past shutdowns have been resolved before that could happen.

Can it be stopped?

Yes. Congress and the president could agree on a spending deal. Or, they could pass a one- or two-week bill continuing government funding at current levels, to prevent a shutdown and give themselves more time to negotiate.

Who is responsible?

To the chagrin of Republicans who had hoped to find some way to blame Democrats in the case of a shutdown, Trump has left no doubt about who would be responsible: himself. “I’ll tell you what: I am proud to shut down the government for border security,” he said last week. “I will be the one to shut it down. I’m not going to blame you for it.”