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Milwaukee Bucks (39-6) “@” Charlotte Hornets (15-30)

Vegas Total: 220 – MIL 116.75 – CHA 103.25

Injuries – MIL: Wes Matthews – PROBABLE / Robin Lopez – OUT

Injuries – CHA: NONE

Pace – MIL: 1st – 104.9

Pace – CHA: 30th – 96.6

Top 3 Usage (with NBA Rank) – MIL: Giannis (1st) / Khris Middleton (38th) / Eric Bledsoe (58th)

Top 3 Usage (with NBA Rank) – CHA: Devonte’ Graham (44th) / Terry Rozier (53rd) / Malik Monk (83rd)

T10 DRPM (2019): Donte DiVincenzo (3rd – SG) / Giannis (6th – PF) / PJ Washington (10th – PF)

B5 DRPM (2019): Miles Bridges (WORST – SF) / Cody Zeller (3rd WORST – C)

Analysis

In Watt(eau) is a major (Arc de) Triomphe for the NBA, this afternoon the Bucks and Hornets will play the first regular-season game in France in the league’s history. While you’d have to be in-Seine to think the Bucks don’t have it in the Bag(uette) and that the Hornets aren’t going Toulouse this game by double digits, that doesn’t really matter when there’s only one game to choose from. If we want a (Bona)parte of this slate, we are going to need to Pic(ardy) six dudes to roster based on what we think the story of this one game will be. If you think the Hornets Cannes keep this game Cloche, or that the Bucks have de Gaulle not to rest people no matter the score, build around that story. If you think the story will be the Hornets Louvres by 25 points and the Bucks pull people early, then build a lineup for that. And, whether or not Eiffel like it, I will be here to help you put that story together. You can trust me – I’m not Lyon.

Now, I (Pi)not what you’re thinking – assuming a blowout is putting Descarte before the horse. We’ve been down that Rod(in) before, and that’s how Hugo right to the bottom of the standings. We’ve all lived to Roux that day. I know that for some of you, there’s nothing I could do d’Orsay that will change your mind about this. However, I would argue two things of Not(re Dame). First, that it’s simply Lacoste of doing business. If you want leverage over the field, you have to Zig–Zag – take risks that other people will not, even if it’s not the easiest play. Second, if Giannis and Middleton and Bledsoe are going to be the overwhelming chalk today, and there’s a serious risk of them spending the last quarter and a half Bord(eaux) and sitting on the bench, it would behoove you to approach all 3 with caution – especially the (Pompi)dou-o of Middleton and Bledsoe (who are spotty as it is). I know that’s even harder because this is a Showdown and not a (Charle)magne slate and these 3 have some of the highest ceilings you are going to come a-Croiss(ant), but, in terms of game theory, it’s the most prudent move.

My probable Cors(ica) of action is going to be to Pas(teur) on Middleton and Bledsoe, while coming in around the field on Giannis. Even if he only plays 28 minutes, he should still get you a (Vuit)ton of production. Add onto that the fact that the Hornets can’t stop bigs – they increase scoring by 7%, 3s by 10%, rebounds by 5%, and assists by 18% to PFs – and you have a perfect game for a Versailles-tile triple-double threat like Giannis. Even though I don’t think this game stays close, I do think they keep Giannis in longer than usual to please the crowd, and I think it’s enough for him to, to paraphrase Taco Bell’s slogan, Dumas. Middleton and Bledsoe, though, I don’t trust even if they get normal minutes – rostering them will be too (Mitte)rand-om, and I expect nothing but (Cham)pagne.

With the problems they have against Bigs, the only other Bucks starter I would take a chance on is Brook Lopez, who is far from in-Verne-erable but should go under the radar. As a Center against Charlotte, he will see a 4% increase in scoring, 10% increase in rebounds, 8% increase in assists, and a 6% increase in FG%. That’s enough of a boost, and his price is cheap enough, I expect him to be able to hit the 5x Marq(uis) at least (which is not bad for a showdown). This also means that, when it comes to the bench, the player I’m most interested in is Dragan Bender, who gets the boost from being a big, is getting 14 or so DKP a game with Robin Lopez out, and is only 1400. I will take him for that price, getting that value, especially when he will let us fit in the less Costeau-fficient players.

On the other side of the ball, the only two real advantages you can Lourdes over the Bucks are 3 pointers and Centers. They may bring most players to their (Pyre)nees, but, as long as you can shoot 3s or you play Center, you’ll be Nice. That’s not to say I can guarantee anyone success against the best Defense in the NBA, I can just tell you who’s best able to put their foot in the Dior. If you look at 3s first, it doesn’t take Nostradamus to predict that Devonte Graham (9.4 3PA/G – 3.6 made) and Terry Rozier (6.8 3PA/G – 2.7 made) are going to be your best bets for continued production, while Miles Bridges (4.2 3PA/G – 1.4 made) and PJ Washington (3.5 3PA/G – 1.5 made) would be secondary options, at best. For their prices, Washington and Bridges are barely GPP plays – you can hope for success, but they will most likely kick you in your Balzac (or, if you’re a lady, your Moulin Rouge).

The other “best plays” against the Bucks, as I referenced before, are the guys with the highest (Ja)vert-ticles – the Centers. Unfortunately Four(nier) us, the Hornets are running a motley crew of Crepe-y people playing wildly inconsistent minutes. Cody Zeller, Bismack Biyombo, and Hernangomez are all getting time on the court and none of them provides even the slightest (be)ret of hope, especially not at those prices. No matter how much of a crazy boost the Bucks give to Centers, the Hornets just give us a collection of (Rou)sseau-and-(Mar)ceau players that just Park(er) themselves under the (Antoi)nette and do little else.

It’s a showdown slate. Sometimes you’ll be Andre the Giant. Sometimes you’ll be Glass Joe. The most important thing, though, is that you (Cyra)no your story of this game, and you build a Monet lineup that can provide a Volt(aire) to your bankroll. I hope I helped get you there today.

– Robe(spierre)