From his office at Toronto City Hall, Steve Buckley can see seminal change on the horizon, a future in which the matrix of movement in the city and beyond is dramatically transformed. He believes the driverless car is going to get here; it’s only a matter of time.

His job, as general manager of transportation services, is to make sure this city is ready.

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“This stuff is coming, and it’s coming probably faster than we expect,” Buckley said. “It’s like moving from the horse to the car... and there isn’t a clear path forward.”

Like jurisdictions all over the world, Toronto has started exploring how it will handle driverless cars. Buckley has already given presentations to heads of city divisions and is keeping tabs on how the provincial and federal governments are delving into the future of autonomous vehicles.

“We do think there are some significant local issues that need to be thought through,” Buckley said. “Toward the end of the year, our goal is to come up with a two-year plan in terms of steps we need to take.”

What those steps will be depends on how the advent of driverless cars shakes out. Some foresee human-driven cars using lanes next to others reserved for robot vehicles; some believe whole roads will be reserved for AVs, with many acting as “taxi bots” to serve as efficient public transportation. (Uber, the developer that has stirred controversy with its app connecting private drivers with ride-seekers, is reportedly working on driverless taxis.)

In Ottawa, Barrie Kirk, of the Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence, is proposing a residential community that will include electric robot buses, while a group called the Central North American Trade Corridor Association is pushing for a special highway from Mexico to Manitoba reserved for self-driving transport trucks.

Buckley sees three possible scenarios for Toronto, and believes the city will be dealing with one of them sometime over the next three to 10 years:

Driverless cars are privately owned by individuals, who take them out onto existing roads;

Thousands of so-called taxi bots, owned by companies such as Google or Uber, flood the streets to ferry people around town;

Most likely, in Buckley’s estimation, a mixture of both — taxi bots and private, self-driving vehicles.

“We’ll likely be later testing grounds” because of the colder weather and icier roads in Canada, “but hopefully we get to learn from others, and ultimately we suspect that one form of this will be coming,” Buckley said.

“I jokingly say that one day federal regulations change and Google dumps 10,000 cars on the city streets, and we’re sort of forced to deal with it.”

So what needs to happen?

Buckley believes traffic signal systems would need to be tweaked, or potentially removed and replaced with roundabouts in some places. Co-ordinating with AV designers on GPS and traffic information would also be important. Then there are transit system questions, such as whether this could ease the burden on the TTC and procedural issues involving traffic rules and parking enforcement.

“Who do you write tickets for if the car doesn’t have a driver?” Buckley asked.

The Ontario Ministry of Transportation, meanwhile, will mainly aim to ensure road safety, while trying to avoid heavy regulations that “could stifle investment or innovation in Ontario,” said spokesperson Bob Nichols. The ministry expects AVs to drive on existing roads, possibly with minor additions such as special lanes reserved for robot cars.

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The goal, said Nichols, is to develop standards that will make the province “an autonomous-friendly jurisdiction.”

That’s music to Kirk’s ears. “The first commandment of AVs is ‘Though shalt not have extra infrastructure,” he said, exalting the potential programming that will let robot cars drive efficiently by syncing speed with other vehicles, avoiding sudden stops and reacting more swiftly and predictably to unforeseen events, like a pedestrian jaywalking.

“My hope is that we can save about 80 per cent of collisions, fatalities and injuries,” said Kirk. “AVs will be far more aware of their surroundings and will be far less likely (to get in an accident).”

But the future with driverless cars won’t be without complications. Just ask the philosophers.

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FREE-WHEELING QUESTIONS

Here are some of the questions that will need to be dealt with in coming years:

No right choice

Imagine this: you’re the occupant in a robot car travelling down a residential road lined with grand old oak trees. A young mom suddenly pops into the street pushing a stroller, and your autonomous vehicle doesn’t have time to stop. The computer must choose to smash the mother and baby, potentially killing them, or swerve to hit one of the big trees, possibly killing you.

What’s the right move?

Who’s to blame?

One of the big questions pertains to insurance and liability: who is responsible if a robot car crashes into one driven by a human, or if two AVs collide?

Michael Brattman, president of the Insurance Brokers of Ontario, said this leaves him scratching his head. “We don’t know,” he admitted. “Presumably the rules and the laws are still the same… but it has the potential to be a big game-changer.”

Should people even drive?

Barrie Kirk, director of the Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre for Excellence, argued that troubling situations will be exceedingly rare. Plus, he said, the benefits of the technology will outweigh such considerations.

“Let’s suppose, by 2030, AVs have demonstrated that they’re much safer than humans,” he said. “Would it not be more ethical to forbid humans from driving at all?”