Qualifying Projections

The season average FP2 multipliers carry over from Canada as the previous two weekend had variable weather and track conditions:

In FP1 the pole position, race win and fastest lap looked to have already been decided as Mercedes seemed so dominant, but, for whatever reason, Free Practice 2 was much closer between Mercedes and Red Bull. Lewis Hamilton matched his FP2 soft tyre run with his FP1 medium-tyre run which suggests there’s some sandbagging or the higher temperatures played out of their hands.

The track has not been resurfaced recently and the weather forecast for qualifying is for cloudy skies and ambient temperatures of 18-21°C. There is rain due before and during FP3. The Grand Prix has various support races which will improve track evolution rates.

The projected qualifying times are as follows:

Team Fastest Qualifying time Red Bull 1:29.96 Mercedes 1:30.08 Force India 1:30.88 Williams 1:31.09 Ferrari 1:31.20 Toro Rosso 1:31.87 McLaren 1:32.07 Haas 1:32.09 Sauber 1:32.19 Renault 1:33.07 Manor 1:33.18

Long Run Analysis

Nico Rosberg was, unfortunately for the adoring British fans, the sole driver unable to complete a high-fuel run at the latter stages of FP2. Later on, I have also excluded Button’s long run because the fuel load was so low. The majority of the drivers ran the Medium and Soft compound tyres except Force India who both used the orange hards.

The markers on the following graphs are colour-coded to the tyre compound used:

Lewis Hamilton’s times dropped off the most over his stint, however, the amount is exaggerated because his first lap was so fast. The graph shows a clear divide of the soft compound tyre and the medium compound tyre.

Force India on the hard compound don’t appear to have a wear advantage judging from their FP2 stints but the team’s arsenal of orange may prove useful on Sunday with longer runs.

Put together into a mini race, the battle for the lead is initially close between Hamilton, Ricciardo and Raikkonen – before Verstappen on the medium tyre skips ahead due to less wear and fuel weight. Vettel is also on the medium tyre but I suspect is carrying a full tank of fuel to see if it is worth starting the race on them.

Last year’s efforts look well beyond the Williams FW38. The British outfit could fall into the clutches of the Toro Rosso’s. Bottas and Sainz’s FP2 stints are impressively consistent.

Looking at the second half of drivers, Alonso looks the standout best for McLaren who have spent two engine tokens before this weekend.

Renault look to be clear of Sauber and Manor. Haryanto, unfortunately, in a league of one at the back.

To conclude, the surprises of the weekend will be Hulkenberg and Red Bull.