Holland’s chances of reaching the World Cup finals are almost certainly over, with Saturday night’s results meaning Dick Advocaat’s team need to beat Sweden by seven goals on Tuesday to reach the play-offs, while Bosnia-Herzegovina’s dramatic 4-3 home defeat by Belgium in Sarajevo had implications well beyond their hopes of finishing second in Group H.

The Dutch won 3-1 in Belarus in Group A but look set to miss out on their second major tournament in a row because of their inferior goal difference. Sweden’s 8-0 thrashing of Luxembourg in Solna gives them a goal-difference superiority over Holland of 12 goals and they have also scored more, so would advance if goal difference was level. The Al Ain striker Marcus Berg scored four times and the captain Andreas Granqvist converted a penalty in each half in the Swedes’ biggest victory since 1938.

In Barysaw, the Brighton midfielder Davy Pröpper put Holland ahead against Belarus on 24 minutes but the defender Maksim Valadzko levelled 10 minutes into the second half. With time running out, Holland took the lead again through a penalty from Arjen Robben on 84 minutes before Memphis Depay made it 3-1 with a free-kick in stoppage time.

France remain top of Group A by one point after Blaise Matuidi’s early goal proved enough to secure a 1-0 victory away to Bulgaria. The Juventus midfielder lashed home an angled finish after three minutes in Sofia, which leaves Les Bleus with their fate in their own hands for the visit of Belarus on Tuesday.

The worst runners-up from the nine European groups, based on a table excluding results against the bottom-placed sides in each section, miss out on a play-off place. Bosnia – who had started this week’s programme in the last qualifying spot – have now been replaced in second spot in Group H by Greece, with a 2-1 win in Cyprus. But the Greeks’ final game is against last-placed Gibraltar, so they cannot improve on a record of 13 points from the relevant matches and a goal difference of plus four, setting a low benchmark. Bosnia’s defeat immediately sent Italy through to the play-offs and Denmark, like Northern Ireland, now need a single point from their final match. Greece’s poor goal difference also means Sweden are through as long as they avoid the seven-goal defeat to Holland that would cost them second place in their own section. Scotland will now qualify for the play-offs if they win their final game on Sunday, while should either Wales or the Republic of Ireland win Monday’s match in Cardiff then they will have done enough.

Group B leaders Switzerland moved a step closer to Russia after a 5-2 win over Hungary in Basel made it nine straight qualification wins. With Portugal having won 2-0 away to Andorra the Swiss now need only a point from their trip to Lisbon – but if the hosts can secure victory, they would claim top spot.

Nigeria became the first side from Africa to qualify, thanks to a 1-0 home win against Zambia. Arsenal’s Alex Iwobi scored with 17 minutes left in Uyo to establish a six-point advantage over the losers, who remain second in Group B, with one round of matches to go.

South Africa boosted their chances in perhaps the most contentious group in all continents, beating Burkina Faso 3-1. South Africa have still to play Senegal twice, because the referee of the original game was found guilty of match-fixing and a replay was ordered. Senegal now top Group D after winning 2-0 in Cape Verde. With no play-offs for African teams, the final matches take place next month, but Egypt will qualify on Sunday if they win at home to Congo. Morocco will go to Ivory Coast next month needing a draw to deny their hosts, after a 3-0 win against Gabon took them top of Group C.

On Friday, the USA overran Panama 4-0 in Orlando to move into the last automatic spot, but Tropical Storm Nate forced a 24-hour delay in the game between Costa Rica and Honduras. Los Ticos needed just a draw in Saturday night’s game but Honduras went ahead in the second half. Six minutes of added time were played, however, and Costa Rica equalised through Kendall Waston to seal their finals spot.