OpenSim, the open source spinoff of Second Life, is gaining many new regions and grids, according to HyperGrid Business, but that only tells part of the story. As this happens, actual users of OpenSim seem to be shrinking. In 2009, the most popular OpenSim viewer had just under 10,000 monthly active users, with an estimate of 15,000 total OpenSim users overall. (A guess I confirmed then with one of OpenSim's top developers.) Now, HGB reports, OSGrid has "the most active users, at 3,280", and "Avination was the second most-active grid, with 3,266 active users." (Emphasis mine.) So it's very unlikely the total amount of OpenSim users exceeds 15,000, and more likely much under that number. We can't totally be sure, for as HyperGrid Business also notes, there's no central database counting OpenSim grids or active users. But the smart money is that since 2009, the number of people regularly involved with OpenSim is less, not more.

This lack of growth isn't a criticism of OpenSim per se, because clearly some people continue to find it useful. However, in relation to Second Life and the broader market for 3D-based virtual worlds, it's an important point to keep in mind. For example, when I noted that Bryn Oh's Second Life artwork had lost its patron, some suggested that she should move her creations to OpenSim. But doing so would drastically shrink her potential audience, not grow it. And because OpenSim doesn't have a virtual currency as viable as Linden Dollars, make it even more difficult for her to raise funds (and paying fans) to sustain her artwork.

OpenSim's lack of growth raises even more concern for Second Life itself: