Changes in Indonesia's approach to death penalty cases under Joko Widodo mean foreigners are now more likely than locals to be executed there. Diane Zhang has the numbers.

Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran are under imminent threat of facing the firing squad at a time when Indonesia's use of executions is changing dramatically under new president Joko Widodo.

In his first four months in power, Widodo has both sharply increased the use of executions and shifted the focus to narcotics prisoners, meaning that many more foreigners have already been executed or are now slated for execution. If Widodo maintains his hardline stance of no mercy for drug crimes, approximately 40 more foreign citizens may be executed as Indonesia clears its death row of narcotics prisoners.

Indonesia's use of executions is escalating under president Joko Widodo. Between 1999-2014, under Indonesia's first four democratic-era presidents, 27 people were executed, an average of fewer than two executions per year. Within Widodo's first 100 days in office, in January 2015, Indonesia executed six people. Officials have announced a further 10 people may face the firing squad in February.

Executions in a single year*

Source: various media and Kontras and Imparsial.

After only two months, 2015 is set to break the record for the most number of executions in a single year. If Indonesia conducts 10 executions as planned, it would entail putting as many people to death on a single day than had previously been executed in democratic Indonesia in an entire year. The previous record for single-year executions was set in 2008 when 10 prisoners were executed, including the Bali bombers.

Source: Kontras, Imparsial, various media reports (2015 figure includes the 10 people slated for execution).

Executions of narcotics convicts

Source: Kontras, Imparsial, various media reports (2015 figure includes the 10 people slated for execution).

The escalation of executions has focused on those on death row for narcotics crimes. Before Joko Widodo became president, only seven out of 27 prisoners executed were sentenced in narcotics cases, with 17 people put to death for murder and three for terrorism. All six prisoners put to death by Widodo so far have been narcotics convicts, and all 10 names slated for execution next are narcotics convicts.

Executions of foreigners

Source: Kontras, Imparsial, various media reports (2015 figure includes the 10 people slated for execution).

More foreigners have been executed or are slated for execution in 2015 than the total for the previous 16 years. Prior to Widodo's administration, only seven of the 27 people executed were foreigners. By contrast, five of the first six people Widodo has executed have been foreigners and nine of the next 10 slated executions also involve foreigners.

Source: Kontras, Imparsial, various media reports (2015 figure includes the 11 people slated for execution).

Between 1999-2015, all but two of the narcotics prisoners executed or slated for execution have been foreigners. Widodo's focus on executing narcotics convicts coupled with the fact that the majority of prisoners on death row for drug crimes are foreigners means foreign citizens are now more likely than Indonesians to be executed. This is a reversal of the previous pattern.

Executions by citizenship

Source: Kontras, Imparsial, various media reports (2015 figure includes slated executions).

To date, foreigners executed or slated for execution are citizens of 12 countries. Executing foreign citizens inevitably strains Indonesia's ties with their countries of origin. Brazil and the Netherlands each recalled their ambassadors in response to the execution of their own citizens in January; Brazil's row with Indonesia has since escalated, seeing Indonesia also recall its envoy. Ahead of the possible execution of Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran, bilateral ties have started to fray, most visibly in the "Coins for Australia" social media campaign.

It is almost impossible to determine exactly how many prisoners are on death row and their country of origin. The Attorney General announced immediately after the January 2015 executions that 60 people remain on death row for narcotics, 34 of them foreigners. But the list of nationalities he provided contained obvious errors.

Source: Attorney-General's department data as reported in various Indonesian media outlets, January 2015.

According to Attorney General HM Prasetyo, the 34 foreign citizens on death row for drug crimes are from 15 countries. The list, however, includes three Australians rather than just Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran. It does not include Ghanaian citizen Martin Anderson, one of the ten prisoners slated for execution. The list also does not include any citizens from the United States or Thailand, who are all believed to be on death row according to human rights monitors and media reports.

According to this author's own estimates, 41 foreign citizens from 18 countries remain on death row for narcotics crimes. This figure is derived by comparing lists compiled by two human rights monitors Kontras and Imparsial, an un-sourced set of 64 names published on legal website Hukum Online in January 2015, and various media reports.

As opaque as the composition of Indonesia's death row may be, what is crystal clear is that if Indonesia presses ahead and executes these people, its foreign relations will become mired in an increasing morass of bilateral spats.

*Editor's note: An earlier version of this article included graphs that were based on old data. The graphs have been updated to include the most recent data, and which now reflect the writing.

Diane Zhang is an economist working on public policy issues in Indonesia.