Amid the many unknowns and unknowables of the Trump-Kim Singapore agreement one thing is certain: it represents a strengthening of China’s position in north-east Asia.

A Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence System, or Thaad, test. Credit:US Department of Defence

China has clearly been concerned with North Korea's increasingly belligerent behaviour in the region; President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi held two meetings with Kim Jong-un in China this year. North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal has increased the need for US military presence on the Korean peninsula and Japan. In particular, the deployment of THAAD, an anti-ballistic missile system, to South Korea last March, was seen by Beijing as eroding its nuclear deterrent capability and as a policy of US containment of China in Northeast Asia.

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The most salient gain for China is the weakening of US power in the region. In an unprecedented move, Trump announced that the US would cease military exercises in the peninsula, the next of which is scheduled for August. He also has clearly indicated that withdrawing US troops from South Korea was on the table for the future. By doing this, he also weakens South Korea and Japan’s relative power in the region.