The methodology and data behind my estimates are found in my full 3,600-word Apple 4Q18 earnings preview available here exclusively for Above Avalon members. (To become a member and access my full earnings preview, visit the membership page.)

Each quarter, I publish expectation meters ahead of Apple's earnings release. Expectation meters turn single-point financial estimates into more useful ranges that aid in judging Apple's quarterly performance. In each expectation meter, the white shaded area reflects my single-point estimate. The gray shaded area represents my broader expectation range. A result that falls within this gray range signifies that the product or variable being measured is pretty much performing as expected. A result that falls in the green shaded area denotes strong performance and the possibility of me needing to increase my estimates going forward. Vice versa, a result falling in the red shaded area has the opposite effect, potentially leading me to reduce my assumptions going forward.

As with last quarter, I am publishing three expectations meters for Apple's 4Q18:

iPhone unit sales "Other Products" revenue 1Q19 revenue guidance

iPhone

My expectation is for Apple to report iPhone unit sales between 44M and 48M units. A result north of 48M units would be considered strong while a sub-44M result would be considered weak.