It’s been nearly two weeks since Donald Trump partially shut down the government over funding for his border wall, and he remains no closer to getting his way. Incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is holding firm, with plans to hold a vote Thursday on six bipartisan bills that would fully fund everything but the Department of Homeland Security, and which do not include a penny for the wall. The White House has called the plan “a nonstarter,” saying that it “fails to secure the border, and puts the needs of other countries above the needs of our own citizens.”

Trump will reportedly attempt to wrest the upper hand from Pelosi and the Democrats by holding another high-profile meeting Wednesday with Democratic leaders, this time in the Situation Room, evidently in an attempt at “dramatizing security concerns at the border.” Yet it’s unclear whether Trump, who essentially ceded any strategic advantage when he took ownership of the shutdown before it had begun, has the leverage to manipulate the situation in his favor.

Already, the president, who demanded $5 billion to build his “beautiful” wall when he torpedoed a deal last month to keep the government open, has indicated that he may be willing to accept less than half of that original amount. Moreover, it’s unclear whether another high-drama meeting with Democratic leaders—perhaps a predictable move from the reality star-turned-president, who has always prized performance over substance—will do anything to alter the state of play. Pelosi, who retakes the gavel on Thursday, has already outmaneuvered Trump, who seems to have misjudged not only the optics of the shutdown, but the dynamics within the sometimes fractious Democratic Party. Even caucus members who sought to depose Pelosi last year are now standing firmly behind her leadership in the shutdown battle.

Crucially, the standoff has largely weakened Trump, who has scored points with his far-right base but frustrated many in the G.O.P. establishment. With no real leverage to sway Democrats, he’s taken to Twitter in a clumsy attempt at salesmanship: “Throughout the ages some things NEVER get better and NEVER change,” he wrote on New Year’s Eve. “You have Walls and you have Wheels. It was ALWAYS that way and it will ALWAYS be that way! Please explain to the Democrats that there can NEVER be a replacement for a good old fashioned WALL!” On Wednesday, he added, “Quick payback!” With the wall unpopular among the American public, and Trump absorbing the blame for the shutdown, however, such appeals seem increasingly desperate.