Fantasy Fallout, Week 1: Where undrafted Arian Foster is the top RB of the week

This season in Fantasy Fallout I’m going to get away from a position-by-position rundown of the studs/duds and do more of a free-wheeling, stream-of-consciousness column that will go up every Monday morning (just in time for you to waste a few minutes at work while you sip your coffee).

Let’s start with arguably the biggest performance of the week. If your fantasy team ran into the one-man buzzsaw otherwise known as Arian Foster (238 total yards, 3 TD), I intimately feel your pain. After touting him all August, I failed to get Foster in any of my six leagues, probably because I was expecting to get him in the 4th or 5th round on draft day. As some sort of punishment, I faced him in two leagues this week. Ouch. In August, his ADP was sitting in the 8th round before Ben Tate‘s injury and skyrocketed into the 3rd, which I thought was a bit early, but his Week 1 performance totally justified that rise. As a direct result, the Texans didn’t need Andre Johnson (3-33) or Owen Daniels (1-9). Hopefully, owners stayed away from Daniels this week (I started Todd Heap — fingers crossed — over him in my auction league), and hopefully his knee reacts well to his first game action.

In that same game, Peyton Manning completed 40 of 57 passes for 443 yards and three TD, and probably won a few fantasy games himself. With that many attempts, Manning was able to target Reggie Wayne (7-99-1), Pierre Garcon (4-74), Austin Collie (10-131-1) and Dallas Clark (11-80-1) at least 10 times each. Anthony Gonzalez (1-12, three targets) was the odd man out. The Matthew Berry-led talk of Wayne’s demise seems a little premature, at least at this point. It’s tough to tell how the Colts’ targets are going to shake out when Manning throws this many time, so we’ll just kick that can down the road. One thing seems certain: Austin Collie is the Colts’ WR3, not Anthony Gonzalez.

Heading to Chicago, much was made of Matt Forte‘s prospects in a Mike Martz offense, but he out-carried Chester Taylor 17-to-9 (gaining a less-than-stellar 50 yards) and went an astounding 7-151-2 in the passing game. Remember, as weak as Martz running games typically are, he made a lot of hay with Marshall Faulk through the air when he was in St. Louis. Forte isn’t the back that Faulk was, but he is a very capable receiver as he proved on Sunday. As for the pecking order amongst the Chicago receivers, Devin Aromashodu (5-71) led the way with 10 targets, Johnny Knox (4-52) had seven, and Devin Hester (1-17) had just one. One! (Bench Hester until further notice.) Greg Olsen (4-32) had six targets, which should make his owners feel pretty good, despite the relatively pedestrian production.

On the other side of the ball, Jahvid Best scored twice but only gained 36 total yards, Matthew Stafford was knocked out of the game after a pretty strong start with another shoulder injury, and Calvin Johnson (4-45) was robbed of a 40-yard TD by a poorly-framed NFL rule about what constitutes a catch. In the endzone, he got both feet down, and landed on his side before the ground knocked the ball out of his hand as he got up to celebrate. Ridiculous. (And don’t worry the fact that I’m a huge Packer fan, either.)

Zipping over to Nashville, no one ever doubted that Darren McFadden (24 touches, 150 yards, TD) has the talent to be a bona fide RB1, it’s his durability that has always been his problem. As long as he’s close to 100% and as long as Michael Bush is sidelined, he’s a solid RB2, especially in PPR leagues. The first year of the Zach Miller‘s breakout season started rather quietly, with just four catches for 43 yards. This is worrisome, partly because Jason Campbell (180 yards, TD, INT) didn’t play very well, but mostly because the Raiders were playing from behind and that’s all Miller could produce.

Welcome back, Wes Welker! Everyone loves a Rudy-type story, and not only does Welker fit the bill size-wise, he came off knee surgery to catch eight passes for 64 yards and two scores. As a result, Randy Moss went for just 5-59 on eight targets and probably isn’t feeling any more love than he was last week when he complained about the organization’s lack of movement on an extension. In other Pats news, Fred Taylor (16 touches, 77 yards) is clearly the RB to own there. Kevin Faulk‘s seven touches were the next highest of any of the New England RBs. On the other side of the ball, Chad Ochocinco‘s 12-159-1 just goes to show you that having a dating reality show in the summer does not automatically result in a crappy performance in Week 1.

Hakeem Nicks (4-75-3) and Steve Smith 2.0 (5-43) each had eight targets, but obviously Nicks did more with his. He is the physically superior receiver, and if he shows good hands and dependability, he’ll be the Giants’ WR1 this year. Eli Manning rode Nicks to 263 yards and three TD, but also threw three picks, but at least two were on tipped balls. Carolina was led by Steve Smith 1.0 (5-75-1), and although Matt Moore turned the ball over four times, Smith 1.0 doesn’t look to be any worse off than he was with Jake Delhomme under center.

Speaking of Delhomme (227 yards, TD, 2 INT), his debut for the Browns ended in a loss, but his 41-yard strike to Mohammed Massaquoi (2-46-1) was nice. But the big fantasy question surrounding the Browns this season is at RB, where Jerome Harrison (10 touches, 59 yards) and Peyton Hillis (13 touches, 65 yards) formed a RBBC in Week 1. Hillis fumbled twice (and lost one), but for whatever reason the coaching staff seems to trust him more than Harrison.

Let’s make a quick stop in Jacksonville, where Denver’s Bizzaro triumvirate of formerly-disappointing wideouts — Brandon Lloyd (5-117), Eddie Royal (8-98) and Jabar Gaffney (3-34-1) — has to have the collective fantasy world scratching its head. Sure, someone was going to emerge here, but they all put up starter-caliber numbers. On the flip side, has anyone seen Mike Sims-Walker (0-0, two targets)? He needs to talk to Marcedes Lewis (2-31-2) about how to produce with only two passes thrown his way. Mike Thomas (6-89, eight targets) looks like he’ll be a hot waiver wire pickup this week.

Probably the biggest story of the late games was the poor play of Kevin Kolb (5/10, 24 yards) before getting concussed and giving way to Michael Vick (175 passing yards, TD, 103 rushing yards), who led a valiant comeback only to fall short in the final minutes. I doubt Andy Reid will pull the plug on Kolb if he’s healthy enough to play. After all, there was a lot of thought put into whether or not Kolb was the Eagles’ QB of the future. Still, Kolb owners can’t feel very good about his preseason and Week 1 performance. (I’m happy that I traded for Drew Brees in the one league where Kolb was my starter, even if I had to give up Jason Witten and Mike Williams TB to get him.)

In St. Louis, it looks like Mark Clayton (10-119, 16 targets) may usurp Laurent Robinson (3-18-1, nine targets) as the Rams’ WR1, which is saying something seeing as Clayton only joined the Rams a week or so ago. Should Larry Fitzgerald owners keep worrying about Derek Anderson? Yeah, Fitzy (3-43-1) only caught three passes on 15 targets, but he did catch a TD. He’s so good that he *should* be all right no matter who’s throwing to him. I wouldn’t expect a Top 5 year for Fitzy, but Top 10 is well within reach. Chris Wells owners shouldn’t worry too much about Tim Hightower cementing his role as the feature back. He gained 94 total yards but fumbled the ball twice so there is plenty of opportunity for carries for Wells once he comes back.

I don’t know what to make of the 49ers dreadful performance in Seattle. Is San Francisco’s offense this bad? Is Pete Carroll a genius? Only time will tell. Vernon Davis (8-73) was the only bright spot for the 49ers and Michael Crabtree (2-12) was a near no-show. Ted Ginn (1-19) had more receiving yards, for Pete’s sake. You’re better than this, Alex Smith (225 yards, 2 INT). Aren’t you?

Finally, in the night game, I was impressed by Donovan McNabb‘s rapport with Chris Cooley (6-80) and Santana Moss (6-77) having missed so much time recently with that ankle injury. Fred Davis was a non factor, so if this keeps up, Cooley should be a shoe-in for the top 10 at tight end in PPR leagues. Clinton Portis out-carried Larry Johnson 18-to-3, and is the clear feature back in Washington. He grinded out a somewhat respectable 3.5 ypc, but the big question with Portis is his durability at this point in his career. On the other side of the ball, Miles Austin (10-146-1) looked phenomenal, but it was Dez Bryant (8-56) who led the team in targets with 12. In the Dallas backfield, we have a good ol’ fashioned (as-advertised) timeshare with Marion Barber (10 touches, 40 yards) and Felix Jones (10 touches, 64 yards) both seeing some action. Lastly, the Redskins’ defense once again looks like it will be stingy. In recent years, it hasn’t generated a lot of sacks, but holding the Cowboys’ potent offense to just seven points is a feat, and the Redskins DT should be considered for use in DTBC and DTBWW strategies going forward.

That about wraps up the first week of Fantasy Fallout. Be sure to check back on Tuesday morning when I will discuss the Jets/Ravens and Chargers/Chiefs.