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Electricity generation is the largest single contributor to the carbon emissions that are warming the planet. It accounts for 42% of global emissions, and that share is likely to grow as transportation increasingly is powered by batteries instead of oil.

As countries announce ambitious plans to wean their economies from fossil fuels, their efforts to shift how they generate electricity will determine whether they can hit those goals. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), which helps governments come up with plans to shift to renewables, has estimated that 86% of electricity can be generated with renewables by 2050.

That number might seem high, but more data is now supporting the potential for an aggressive shift in power generation. In a new report, Bernstein analyst Meike Becker examined how countries can get to 100% renewable electricity generation by 2050, and the analysis has some good news about the potential for renewable generation.

The analysis underscores investor optimism about areas like solar and wind. The Invesco Solar ETF (ticker: TAN) is up 59% this year, while the First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Green Energy ETF (QCLN) is up 20%.

Becker’s report found that countries will take widely different paths to renewable generation, based on their natural resources. If coal and oil deposits determined a country’s fate in the 20th century, the force of its rivers and strength of its sunshine will likely determine its path in the 21st. Countries that generate hydroelectric power are way ahead in terms of producing clean power. Norway generates 98% of its electricity from renewable sources, largely because of hydro power. As of 2015, Brazil got 75% of its power from hydro sources. Canada relies on renewables for 67% of its electricity.

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But even in countries without rushing water generating much electricity, Becker sees a feasible path to renewable generation. In Belgium, for instance, hydro accounts for just 7% of generation. What’s more, Belgium depends on nuclear power for about 30% of its electricity, and the country plans to phase nuclear out by 2025. Nonetheless, Becker expects Belgium can generate at least 75% of its electricity with renewables by 2050 by relying on solar, wind and a variety of other technologies, including so-called “combined cycle gas turbines” that use gas and steam for power. The key to doing this is being able to generate and store power at times when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing, using batteries and technologies that can use other fuels more efficiently.

The chances that countries can generate all their electricity with renewables by 2050 are “at this point very close to 100% for countries with good resources and a bit further away if conditions are less favourable,” she wrote in an email to Barron’s. Nonetheless, countries without the same resources can still generate “very high share, and usually higher than what most people currently think, I would say.”

Write to Avi Salzman at avi.salzman@barrons.com