Brian Johnson, with the security division of Time Warner Cable, disconnects an unauthorized cable user in Milwaukee in 2011. Credit: Gary Porter

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Cable TV rates won't fall, and customer service won't suddenly be stellar. But some experts say Wisconsin consumers should be better off now that industry leader Comcast Corp. has trumped much smaller Charter Communications Inc.'s bid to take over Time Warner Cable Inc.

Comcast's planned $45.2 billion acquisition of Time Warner Cable could even mean fewer Time Warner job losses in Wisconsin, said Barry Orton, a telecommunications professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

"Comcast has a fairly good track record in terms of customer service. They're not angels, by any means, and they make a ton of money, but they're at the head of the list of cable companies in public interest issues," Orton said.

A combined Comcast-Time Warner would have roughly 30 million U.S. customers. That reason, among several others, raises questions as to whether the friendly takeover bid — which came after months of public pursuit of Time Warner Cable by Charter — will pass the scrutiny of antitrust regulators.

But Comcast has clear advantages in the regulatory arena, Orton said.

"Comcast has a far stronger reputation nationally. It has a substantive lobbying and government relations operations in Washington, and Charter does not," he said.

In Wisconsin, Time Warner and Charter are the two biggest cable companies, covering much of the state with television and broadband Internet service. Comcast, by contrast, has a very small presence in the state, with coverage only in Manitowoc and parts of western Wisconsin.

To satisfy regulators, Comcast has proposed divesting about 3 million subscribers of the combined companies, equivalent to about one fourth of Time Warner Cable's 12 million customers. Whether the divestiture would include Time Warner's Wisconsin customers, possibly selling that business to Charter, remains to be seen.

Comcast's first priority will probably be keeping Time Warner's larger markets, including New York, Los Angeles and Dallas, said telecom analyst William Power with Robert W. Baird & Co.

Milwaukee would probably be somewhere in the middle of Comcast's priority list, Power said, although it could rank a little higher given that Comcast already has a strong presence in Chicago, including its northern suburbs.

Operating the southeast Wisconsin territory from Chicago could make sense logistically, but there are going to be many factors in the decision-making process, and it will take months to sort them out.

Time Warner Cable has about 2,000 employees in Wisconsin, and Charter has 1,900 employees in the state. Comcast has only a small number of workers here, so it wouldn't realize the cost savings through economies of scale that Charter could have realized by merging some of its operations with Time Warner, Orton said.

"I would be less worried about this deal, if I were a Time Warner employee in Wisconsin, than I would have been about the Charter deal," he said. "(Comcast) could potentially run the Milwaukee operations out of Chicago, and lose some of the Wisconsin headquarters folks here, but I kind of doubt it.

"For Time Warner Cable employees and subscribers, this is a white knight kind of deal as opposed to being acquired by Darth Vader."

Still needs federal OK

Comcast says it would like to complete the acquisition by the end of the year.

Power said the deal faces high hurdles from federal regulators and is far from certain. "I think the Justice Department and the FCC are going to want significant concessions," he said.

But Susan Crawford, a Harvard University Law School professor who follows the telecom industry, said it's unclear what role antitrust regulators will play.

"These guys were never going to compete with each other. They divided up the country a long time ago," she said.

If Comcast takes over Time Warner Cable, it could step up the competition with AT&T's U-verse television and Internet service, as well as with the satellite firms that provide television service.

Comcast says Time Warner Cable customers also will benefit from improved reliability of service, faster broadband and new services. The combined companies also would have more bargaining clout with advertisers and broadcasters that provide program content.

The combined companies expect to create $1.5 billion in operating savings, with 50% of those savings in the first year. If the acquisition comes to fruition, it would be the second time in a little more than a year that Comcast has changed the U.S. media landscape, after its $17 billion purchase of NBC Universal was completed in 2013.

Consumer advocates worry about the degree to which the proposed deal would consolidate power in the hands of Comcast in both cable television and broadband.

"It's hard to understand how this kind of concentrated market power ... is going to benefit consumers," Delara Derakhshani, policy counsel for Consumers Union, said in a Consumer Reports article.

Market power

Comcast would have unprecedented market power over consumers, and an unprecedented ability to exert its influence over channels or businesses that want to reach Comcast customers, according to Free Press, a consumer advocacy group that promotes affordable broadband service.

"In an already uncompetitive market with high prices that keep going up and up, a merger of the two biggest cable companies should be unthinkable. This deal would be a disaster for consumers and must be stopped," said Free Press President Craig Aaron.

"No one woke up this morning wishing their cable company was bigger or had more control over what they could watch or download. But that — along with higher bills — is the reality they'll face tomorrow unless the Department of Justice and the FCC do their jobs and block this merger. Stopping this kind of deal is exactly why we have antitrust laws. This deal would be the cable guy on steroids — pumped up, unstoppable and grasping for your wallet."