November will be the real test of how strong the Democratic “blue wave” is, but we may get an early sign from Tuesday’s primary election. And San Diego could be a key indicator.

California is central to the Democrats’ hope to flip the 23 Republican districts nationwide needed to gain the majority in the House of Representatives

The free-for-all in 49th Congressional District straddling San Diego and Orange counties, represented by retiring Republican Darrell Issa, is in the middle of it all. Hillary Clinton won the 2016 popular vote in the 49th and six other California Republican districts, and the Democratic Party is making a push in all of them.

While not one of the prime Democratic targets, the East County 50th District held by embattled Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter also is being watched for how well, or poorly, Democrats do.


Democrats came surging into the year with high expectations fueled by dissatisfaction with, in some cases hatred of, President Donald Trump. That momentum has been tempered by a shifting political landscape and the worry that there are simply too many Democrats on the ballot in some races, potentially splitting the vote to the benefit of Republicans.

There’s the potential — considerable in some districts, less so in others — that Democratic candidates could get shut out of November because of the state’s primary system, where the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party affiliation.

In the 49th District, Republican organizations have put on a push for Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey, who won GOP backing in San Diego and Orange counties. At least one Republican-leaning group is promoting both her and Assemblyman Rocky Chávez. A new SurveyUSA poll shows Harkey has vaulted from the middle to the top of the pack while Chávez has lost ground.

He was slightly behind or tied with four strong Democrats, so seemingly any of the five could take second. But let’s be clear: Any poll in a race as convoluted as this should be viewed with caution, and certainly no poll a week out or more out should be considered a predictor of the Tuesday’s outcome.


Things are way too volatile, as Harkey’s leap suggests. She tripled her support from a poll released April 12. Chávez, who led in that poll, saw his lead cut in half in the recent survey.

A report of an active shooter in downtown San Diego that brought the Rock ’n’ Roll Marathon to a standstill for more than 30 minutes ended when police arrested a woman who had been armed with an airsoft gun.

Also, the new poll, launched a week before the election, said 13 percent of those surveyed were still undecided. Add to that the fact that there are 16 candidates on the ballot, though only four Democrats and two Republicans (charitably four) are considered viable. Then add to that the difficulty in predicting primary election turnout in a single district.

Meanwhile, a Democratic poll shows Democratic attorney Mike Levin with a narrow lead over Harkey, followed by Democrat Doug Applegate, who almost knocked off Issa in 2016. He’s followed by Democrat Sara Jacobs and Chávez, who were tied, then Democrat Paul Kerr and Republicans Kristin Gaspar and Brian Mayott, who were essentially tied.


The bottom line? Be ready for anything Tuesday.

The Democratic Party sought to alter the equation by running unusual attack ads, aimed at Republicans, pointing out that Chávez has voted with Democrats on budget and spending issues. The strategy seems two-fold: to help a Democrat advance and, if there’s to be a Republican in November, try to make it Harkey, who’s more conservative than Chávez and potentially less attractive to moderate voters.

Some Democratic Party activists and candidates have either complained about the inability of leaders to thin the field in some of these competitive districts or criticized them for getting behind the wrong candidates. In addition to the Issa seat, there’s a similar dynamic at play in the open 39th District at the northeastern edge of Orange County, where Republican incumbent Ed Royce is stepping down.

In both cases, Democrats coming into the year were looking at running against a weak incumbent in November. Now they’re fighting among themselves with no certainty that one of them will advance to take on a Republican, who won’t have the Trump baggage of Issa and Royce.


There’s also great uncertainty in Orange County’s 48th district held by vulnerable Republican Dana Rohrabacher. He’s facing a challenge former Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh, a handful of Democrats and several lesser-known Republicans. The Democratic Party has run ads against Baugh in hopes of keep the GOP from winning the top two spots.

In the overwhelmingly Republican 50th District, a SurveyUSA poll released May 22 shows Hunter in the driver’s seat with 43 percent support despite a federal criminal investigation into whether he misused campaign funds. Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar came in second with 10 points but El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells, a Republican, was only 4 points behind him. That in theory would put Wells in striking distance of the second spot, though he has a fraction of the resources of Campa-Najjar or Democrat Josh Butner.

It would be a huge setback for Democrats if they are shut out of the November ballot in one or more of the contested districts. Even if they aren’t, those still are traditionally Republican areas and, despite Clinton’s performance two years ago, winning them in the fall won’t be easy for Democrats.

What exactly the Democratic Party should have or could have done is during the primary campaign is unclear. In the 49th and some other districts, no Democrat was able to win the state party’s endorsement, which required backing from 60 percent of delegates at the party’s convention in San Diego in February. Another factor is some of the targeted districts have wealthy candidates, such as Jacobs and Kerr, willing to spend their own money on the campaign.


“In some of these races you don’t have any leverage,” Steve Smith, communications director for the California Labor Federation, told The Washington Post. “These are self-funded candidates. If they want to run, their going to run whether the (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) says otherwise or not.”

With all of this angst, it’s worth a reminder that the Democrats are in an enviable political position.They have a chance to win districts that during normal times they wouldn’t even try to compete in. They have the potential to take over the House in the November election.

Tuesday could indicate whether that blue wave continues to surge or starts dissipating.

Tweet of the Week

Liam Dillon‏, (@dillonliam), San Diegan emeritus, Sacramento reporter for the Los Angeles Times.


“Meanwhile, the state Senate just approved ‘The Sutter Brown Act’ which would allow EMTs to give dogs and cats ‘mouth-to-snout’ resuscitation among other things. Named after @JerryBrownGov’s late dog.”