If you haven’t had a chance to read it, The Toronto Star has published a interesting article suggesting the LRT plan is woefully short of riders.

These statements in particular summarize the article nicely.

“With an LRT capacity of 15,000 riders per hour per direction, the current Main St. average of 200 riders per hour per direction on weekdays isn’t close to the realm of high-order transit demand. Even during peak periods on weekdays, the Main St. route between Steeles Ave. and Brampton’s downtown has a ridership of about 450 passengers an hour, assuming all nine buses on the route during rush hour are full; this represents three per cent of an LRT’s capacity. Metrolinx, the provincial transit agency, told the Star last week that future ridership for the entire proposed Brampton section of the LRT is: “12,500 during the AM Peak Period, 6 to 9 a.m.,” citing projections for 2031.”

Fight Gridlock has found a number of problems with this article, and will explain in the points that follow.

LRT Capacity

Let’s start with this statement:

“With an LRT capacity of 15,000 riders per hour per direction…”

This statement is inaccurate. Per the Hurontario Main Environmental Project Report:

http://lrt-mississauga.brampton.ca/EN/EPR/Documents/HMLRT%20EPR%20June%202014.pdf

“The LRT will provide capacity for up to 7,200 passengers per hour per direction (PPHPD), based on 12 vehicles with a capacity (for a 90 m vehicle) of 600 passengers”

This capacity for 7,200 passengers is based on a 3-coach consist, with each coach holding 200 passengers. But, there’s another important piece of information to remember, from the same report:

“Initially, the vehicles will typically be operated in two-unit consists (60 m long)”

That’s a capacity of 4,800 passengers per hour per direction, not 15,000 as inaccurately stated in the Toronto Star — an error by over 300%.

Current Ridership

Here’s the next problem statement:

“…the Main St. route between Steeles Ave. and Brampton’s downtown has a ridership of about 450 passengers an hour, assuming all nine buses on the route during rush hour are full; this represents three per cent of an LRT’s capacity.”

The article does not mention that there are 2 routes that service Main St. in Brampton, both of which would be replaced with LRT, and each have different passenger capacities.

The 502, which runs articulated buses with a service capacity of 90 people.

The 2, which runs non-articulated buses, with an average service capacity of 61 people, depending on the model of bus.

Again, per the EPR, Brampton Transit currently runs 6 route 502 ZUM buses and 3 Route 2 standard buses, every hour.

6 x 90 = 540

3 x 61= 183

540 + 183 = 723

At maximum service capacity, Brampton Transit’s downtown ridership is actually as high as 723 passengers per hour, “assuming all nine buses on the route during rush hour are full”, which is closer to 15% of the capacity for a 2-coach LRT consist.

…and Projected Ridership

15% still seems a little light for LRT, doesn’t it? How many riders do we need to merit LRT service? According to this chart from the Hurontario/ Main Street Corridor Master Plan, as few as 1000 passengers per hour, per direction.

http://lrt-mississauga.brampton.ca/EN/Master-Plan/Documents/Master-Plan/Hurontario_Master_Plan_Final_LowRes.pdf

Yes, we concede that we’re not there yet. But we must also remember that the LRT won’t be in service until 2022. And in the meantime, ridership continues to grow. How much? Glad you asked. Let’s take a look at the scenario we currently find ourselves in:

2011 2014 Increase Annual Transit Trips 16,328,909 20,411,022 25%

http://www.brampton.ca/en/residents/transit/facts-figures/Pages/RidershipStats.aspx

Brampton Transit ridership has increased by 25% over the last 3 years, or about 8.33% per year. What situation will we find ourselves in if this ridership continues to grow at this rate?

2014 2022 Annual Increase (25% / 3) Main Street Ridership 723 1,205 8.33%

At the current rate of growth, Main St. ridership between Downtown and Gateway Terminals is projected to be within the minimum threshold for LRT by the time it’s in service in 2022.

But so what? Brampton staff indicated in a report to council that the ZUM “BRT has a capacity of 2200 passengers per hour per direction”.

http://www.brampton.ca/EN/City-Hall/meetings-agendas/PDD%20Committee%202010/20150622pis_H10.pdf

We’ll still be well within that margin by 2022! True… But let’s also consider that Metrolinx is projecting out to 2031. Also, according to the Hurontario/ Main Street Corridor Master Plan there’s something interesting that happens when dedicated transit has been introduced to a transit network: Demand goes up.

“LRT attracts an average of 17 percent more riders than the combination or BRT alternatives, based on the factors reflected in the model. Additional factors (discussed in subsequent sections) suggest that this is conservatively low, because LRT has been shown to be much more attractive for choice riders due to the significantly better quality of ride, and reliability”

If the LRT is terminated at the Gateway Terminal, and not built to the downtown Terminal, it will have reprecussions on the Main St. ZUM transit service. How much? Let’s see if we can guess based on the current rate of ridership growth, combined with the increased demand LRT creates (17%). The way we’ll calculate this is to take the projected ridership numbers for 2022, when the LRT goes into service, and inflate it to reflect 17% more riders. From there, we’ll continue the 8.33% ridership growth.

2022 2031 Annual Increase Main Ridership Projection /w LRT Demand 1,410 (1,205 + 17%) 2,467 8.33%

Based on the present rate of growth, Main St. service between Gateway and Downtown terminals could be looking at as many as 2,467 passengers, and some serious capacity problems at peak time, before 2031 when the LRT is in service.

Fin

The projections calculated here are based strictly on business-as-usual forecasting, based strictly on historical trends. It is not the complex modelling scheme Metrolinx uses that takes into consideration other projects that will certainly effect ridership patterns such as:

Brampton Transit ZUM Steeles West Extension

Brampton Transit ZUM Queen West Extension

Extended GO Transit service

Any intensification efforts downtown

And perhaps, the Metrolinx Queen St. Rapid Transit Study

It’s unfortunate the Toronto Star has published inaccurate information. Please, take the time to look at the actual data for yourself. Fight Gridlock has been working to make information available to Brampton in easy-ish to follow bites, and will continue to do so. Please let us know if we can help answer any questions.