At about this time four years ago, Republican voters began to set aside their interest in nontraditional candidates for president and consolidate behind Mitt Romney, the choice of the GOP establishment. Tentative signs suggest that the same thing could be happening this year.

Support for political newcomer Ben Carson has fallen, dropping in the Real Clear Politics average from nearly 25% in early November to just under 20% on November 22. Surging behind him are Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.