Voters in key states needed by the Turnbull government to keep its election hopes alive will receive very little benefit from the planned company tax cut, new analysis shows.

The analysis of Department of Finance and ATO data conducted by the Australia Institute was released to crossbench senators ahead of the Turnbull government preparing to put its legislation to the Senate.

It’s expected the government will allow the legislation to be defeated there without committing to taking it to the next election.

The policy, which would see company tax cut from 30% to 25% proved to be electoral kryptonite for the Coalition in the Longman byelection, where Labor’s campaign message pitting tax cuts for the big banks versus health and education funding saw the Liberal National party primary vote drop almost 10 points to 30%.

Rod Campbell, research director at the Australia Institute, which has been lobbying senators to vote against the government policy, said only 11% of the companies which the government said would benefit from its plan were based in Queensland, Tasmania or South Australia, limiting any flow on benefits to those states.

Of those companies, Campbell said almost half were in the finance industry, which is currently the subject of a royal commission, with telcos making up 7% of the remainder and the mining sector making up another 11%.

“The company tax cuts for big business are a bad deal for most states,” Campbell said in a statement.

“There is a minimal benefit, but big loss of revenue that could be used on services for everyday Australians ...

“Our research has consistently shown that there is no correlation between lower company tax rates, employment or economic growth.”

The government legislation is listed for debate in the coming days, but the government remains four votes short of the numbers it needs to ensure its success.

Neither Centre Alliance or One Nation have shown any further inclination to return to the negotiating table, all but confirming the bill’s defeat.

Treasurer Scott Morrison, who had aggressively pushed for the cuts, has refused to commit to taking the policy to the next election. Backbenchers, including Luke Howarth, who stands in danger of losing his Queensland seat of Petrie, which has similar demographics to Longman, has publicly urged the government to abandon the policy, if it can’t convince the Senate to pass it.

On Sunday, Malcolm Turnbull, a strong advocate for company tax cuts, would only say negotiations were continuing, with the fight having been pushed to the wayside in the midst of leadership tensions as the conservative faction within his partyroom fights to have emissions reductions dumped from any energy policy.

Cabinet members spent Sunday night dining in Canberra ahead of the latest skirmish following changes Turnbull and energy minister Josh Frydenberg announced to the Neg policy in the past 72 hours.

Conservative eyes have turned to Peter Dutton as a viable candidate to lead the government into the next poll, despite the Home Affairs minister confirming the prime minister has his support.

Turnbull and his chief party room critic, Tony Abbott took to including each other in social media swipes over the weekend, with the energy policy fight being used as the main driver of leadership tensions.

The latest incarnation of the Neg policy won’t be formalised until after cabinet has had a chance to discuss it, but appeasing the backbench may come at the cost of losing Labor state government goodwill, with Labor, Victoria and the ACT all saying they would wait to see what the latest party room discussion would bring.

Both Craig Kelly and George Christensen have expressed further concerns over the alterations, with the Queensland MP saying he still believes the issue with the Neg “is all about lowering emissions not prices”.

“There’s talk of emissions reductions only being regulated after the ACCC determines its won’t raise power prices, but how they are going to do that and what are the consequences of them getting it wrong,” Christensen told Guardian Australia.

Turnbull announced on Sunday the government would accept the recommendations of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s inquiry and move to establish a default price for power.

He also signalled the possibility of reverting back to a legislated emissions target in the Neg, after proposing on Friday it be done through regulation, which the Labor states had wanted, but the government had strongly resisted, as it insisted on giving parliament “a voice”.

By Sunday, after fierce criticism from backbenchers, Turnbull appeared to walk the proposal back, announcing on social media the government “will introduce a new law that ensures that before any new emissions target is set, or changed, the energy regulators and the ACCC must advise what that means for your electricity prices.

No clarification was given to the meaning of “a new law” with the issue discussed at the dinner as part of Sunday night’s itinerary.