North Carolina GOP Gov. Pat McCrory

North Carolina Republican Gov. Pat McCrory was already facing a competitive re-election fight with Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper before he signed state House Bill 2 last month. The state law nullified a Charlotte city ordinance that aimed to protect LGBT citizens and allow transgender citizens to use the bathroom that aligns with their gender identity. The new law also specifically targeted LGBT citizens for discrimination and specified that they must use bathrooms associated with the gender on their birth certificate. A number of businesses subsequently canceled planned expansions into North Carolina. On behalf of WRAL-TV, SurveyUSA gives us our first look at the general election since HB2 was signed, and they have Cooper leading McCrory 47-43.

SurveyUSA gives McCrory an underwater 43-47 approval rating, which exactly matches his deficit against Cooper. By contrast, the attorney general posts a strong 53-25 approval rating; PPP, which frequently polls North Carolina, has usually found Cooper largely unknown. SurveyUSA’s last poll, conducted for High Point University a month ago, gave McCrory a 47-45 edge. A 6-point swing is noticeable, but at least for now, it doesn’t appear that HB2 has dramatically changed the direction of this contest: The race was close before, and it’s close now. Of course, you should never rely on just one poll to analyze a race. PPP surveys the state about once a month and other pollsters will also likely take a look at this contest before too long, so we should soon have a better idea of how much damage HB2 has or has not done to McCrory’s campaign.

SurveyUSA digs a little deeper and finds that North Carolinians disapprove of HB2 by a 50-38 margin. However, respondents overall say they're angry about the economic damage the backlash from HB2 has done to the state instead of with the actual text of the law. By a 56-34 score, respondents say that they agree with the “new law requiring people to follow their birth certificate in using a restroom.” By a similar margin, they also agree that “allowing transgender individuals to use the restroom of their choice pose[s] a security risk for women and children,” which is exactly what McCrory and the GOP legislature have been arguing. However, respondents also agree by a 61-11 margin that the bill has hurt “North Carolina's ability to attract and keep businesses.”

McCrory is aware that the firestorm from HB2 is doing his state, and by extension, his political career, real damage. The governor recently issued an executive order that sought to assuage the law’s critics, but it really didn’t do much to actually reverse HB2. If McCrory can persuade businesses to return to the state, or at least stop the exodus, he may be able to escape without much electoral damage. However, if North Carolinians are convinced that McCrory has done long-term harm to their state’s economy, voters probably will not be so willing to forgive him in November. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as a Tossup.