A stunning new assessment of the Bay Area economy predicts that more than 800,000 jobs could be lost by May as fallout from the coronavirus bludgeons the region.

The state will be battered as well, with an estimated 3.9 million jobs lost by May, the Stockton-based Center for Business and Policy Research said Wednesday in an early look at the employment impact of COVID-19 as nonessential businesses shut down to help stop the spread of the virus.

The Bay Area is expected to lose 835,000 jobs by May, with Santa Clara County losing 204,000 jobs, and the combined region of San Francisco, the East Bay, San Mateo County, and Marin County shedding 522,000 positions, according to the Center, which is based at the University of the Pacific.

“May is the month when we expect the job losses to peak,” said Jeffrey Michael, the business center’s director. “We expect that after May, people are going to start returning to their jobs.”

If the job losses predicted for California and the Bay Area — or anything close to them — materialize, those would tower over any other employment setbacks on record, including the Great Recession and the dot-com bust.

Despite the grim numbers, veteran economist Christopher Thornberg, founding partner with Beacon Economics, believes the Bay Area economy and its job market are headed for a significant rebound by late spring or early summer.

“We’re going to have a negative second quarter (April-through-June period) and a solid bounce back in the third quarter (July-through-September period),” Thornberg said.

If the Michael prediction holds, California is headed for a job loss of 3.86 million by May — a drop of 22.2 percent compared to 2019. The report’s projections are based on non-farm payroll jobs.

With that huge decline, unemployment would soar to 17 percent in the Bay Area, and 18.8 percent in California, the report said. Just four months ago, California and the Bay Area enjoyed record low unemployment rates and were continuing to add thousands of jobs every month.

The lowest coronavirus-related peak unemployment rate, 15.3 percent, was projected in Santa Clara County, where the report said the “tech‐oriented economy is more resistant than average.” Napa County, heavily reliant on tourism, would be among the region’s hardest hit, the report said, with a projected unemployment rate of 22%. But all areas are expected to set records for both job losses and unemployment. On Wednesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom said an estimated 2.3 million Californians have filed unemployment claims in recent weeks.

Silicon Valley will be hammered by coronavirus-linked economic woes, with “job losses concentrated in lower‐paid service workers that already struggle,” Michael wrote in the report.

The greatest economic pain could hit people in middle-income and low-income jobs in the high-priced Bay Area, warned Russell Hancock, president of Joint Venture Silicon Valley.

“These job losses are wiping people out who have to do things that are person to person, physical labor, personal contact,” Hancock said.

As an example, the first round of announced job cuts in California included high-profile resorts and hotel operations such as Rosewood CordeValle in San Martin, Carmel Valley Ranch in Carmel, and Ventana Big Sur in Big Sur.

“Santa Clara County will probably have the best economic performance in the state, relatively speaking,” Michael said. “More people are able to work from home. The tech industries are being less impacted. There are fewer people working in travel and tourism in Santa Clara County.”

That doesn’t mean that companies in the advanced technology sector will escape unscathed. On Wednesday, Tesla announced furloughs and salary reductions, saying it hoped to resume production at its Fremont plant in May.

But the boom-and-bust cycle of Silicon Valley’s tech sector, which melted down after the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, appears poised to boom again after the coronavirus dangers recede.

“There is going to be less loss of income due to the tech sector having higher incomes,” Thornberg said. “The restaurants and the stores are closed, unfortunately. But talk about pent up demand. All of those tech workers stuck in their apartments for weeks are going to want to get out and shop and party.”

Carl Guardino, president of the Silicon Valley Leadership Group, agreed that the South Bay can rally from the coronavirus difficulties.

“In Silicon Valley, recession is followed by resiliency, which leads to recovery,” Guardino said. “We absolutely have dark days ahead, but our best days still lie before us.”