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WINNERS AND LOSERS: We brought together some of the brightest analysts in the energy business to help us analyze the winners and losers from the big deal by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other oil-producing states to cut production 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June, representing close to 10% of the world’s normal daily oil consumption before the coronavirus.

Let’s get to it.

Winner - President Trump: Trump initially basked in the results of his efforts to push Saudi Arabia and Russia to drop their price war, declaring the deal would “save hundreds of thousands of energy jobs in the United States.”

“The big winner is President Trump, who shifted from arch-foe of OPEC+ to Master of the Deal,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former top oil official in the George W. Bush administration.

Trump also helped convince Mexico’s populist president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, to not block the deal, after the relatively small producer delayed its conclusion.

‘Pyrrhic’ winner - Mexico: Mexico avoided cutting 400,000 barrels per day, as OPEC+ originally wanted, with the group eventually accepting Mexico’s preferred cut of 100,000 barrels per day after Trump suggested the U.S. would cover the difference with market-driven cuts.

But Mexico made an “unnecessary stink about the deal,” said Sarah Ladislaw, director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

McNally told Josh that Mexico’s “victory glow may wear off before long,” and we know Trump won’t doesn’t hesitate to pick fights with its southern neighbor if the country is disruptive again.

Loser - Oil prices in the near-term: Oil prices have barely moved after the oil deal was finalized on Easter Sunday, as much of the effects were already priced into the market on the expectation it would be agreed to.

In a tweet Monday, Trump tried to reassure oil traders, misleadingly suggesting, “the number that OPEC+ is looking to cut is 20 Million Barrels a day, not the 10 Million that is generally being reported.”

Global oil production is going to be cut by more than 9.7 million barrels per day, but much of that will be driven by market forces in countries outside OPEC+, such as the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Norway.

Winner (sort of) - Oil consumers: “The big winners in the short run are folks who still manage to consume oil,” said Jim Krane, energy geopolitics fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute. “Since the OPEC+ cuts did almost nothing to boost prices, oil is still near rock-bottom lows.”

But low prices are “frustratingly out of reach for most people” who are stuck at their homes and not traveling.

Winner - The future oil market: The oil deal won’t offset the much larger demand loss from the coronavirus, but it should set a floor for future prices.

“If the agreement holds, there won't be a free for all when demand returns and that should add some helpful price support for the industry over the medium-to-longer run,” Ladislaw said.

Loser - Russia: Russia backed out of the OPEC+ plus arrangement last month, tired of withholding output that allowed U.S. shale producers to take market share. That prompted Saudi Arabia to call Russia’s bluff and flood the already glutted market with low-priced oil, which dropped prices to a degree Moscow did not seem to anticipate.

“Russia is a loser as it had to learn the hard way for the second time in five years that attempts to defy Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ producers leads to catastrophe,” McNally said.

Tentative winner - Saudi Arabia: The Saudis succeeded in getting Russia back to the negotiating table, but at the cost of angering U.S. oil-state senators.

“Saudi Arabia wanted a cooperative cut, both to boost prices and restore the legitimacy of OPEC+ after the chaos of March,” said Gregory Brew, an oil historian who studies the Middle East at Southern Methodist University’s Center for Presidential History.

But the Saudi-led deal contained ”fuzzy numbers and fuzzy commitments,” Ladislaw said, and Republican senators threatening sanctions remain on watch for successful implementation (see more on that below).

Mixed bag - U.S. oil producers: The deal won’t be enough to help the industry “weather this storm in the short-term,” Ladislaw said.

We’ll continue to see “bankruptcies among the smaller firms, acquisitions and consolidations among the medium-larger companies,” Brew added.

But larger U.S. companies represented by the American Petroleum Institute should remain resilient, and “their goal of steering the U.S. away from direct intervention appears to have worked,” Brew said, referencing Trump holding off on sanctions, tariffs, and other non-market policies.

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writers Josh Siegel (@SiegelScribe) and Abby Smith (@AbbySmithDC). Email jsiegel@washingtonexaminer.com or asmith@washingtonexaminer.com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

BROUILLETTE SAYS US OIL CUTS ARE ‘REAL’ AND DURABLE: Energy Secretary Dan Broulliette made clear Sunday night that Trump promised nothing more to Mexico or OPEC+ than market-driven oil cuts.

"We don't have that system in the United States for mandated cuts," Brouillette told reporters on a press call. He says market-driven cuts caused by the demand collapse and low prices are "real,” and that people who suggest the federal government could mandate cuts are demonstrating “a lack of understanding of U.S. law.”

Brouillette also pushed back on concerns that U.S. producers could quickly pick up where they left off once oil prices rise again.

He said private U.S. companies have announced cuts of $24 billion in capital expenditures, and have promised an average of 30-35% cuts in capex.

“When companies make capital expenditure announcements, these statements are legally binding,” Brouillette said. “There are consequences for making misleading or false statements.”

WHAT’S UP TRUMP’S SLEEVE?: Brouillette said he hopes U.S. oil producers take advantage of other new policies offered by the Trump administration and Congress, and signaled he doesn’t see a need for any more dramatic action.

He said he hopes producers choose to rent space in the federal government’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to store their excess crude, which the Energy Department has offered.

Brouillette also said he will work to “ensure” oil companies “avail themselves” of programs in the CARES Act, the Phase 3 coronavirus response bill passed by Congress.

He mentioned new portions of the tax code set in the law that allow producers to take losses this year against profits of the last five years, which he said will “increase liquidity for smaller companies.”

REPUBLICAN SENATORS KEEPING WATCH ON SAUDIS ‘VERIFICATION’: A group of Republican oil-state senators led by Kevin Cramer of North Dakota spoke with Saudi officials on Saturday as they plan to continue to apply pressure even after the OPEC+ deal was finalized.

Cramer spoke with Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, deputy defense minister, and ambassador to the U.S., along with others joining the call including Sens. Lisa Murkowski, Ted Cruz, Dan Sullivan, Bill Cassidy, John Cornyn, Cory Gardner, James Lankford, John Kennedy, and John Hoeven.

Cassidy has said he intends to introduce legislation soon that would impose tariffs on oil imports from Saudi Arabia and withdraw American troops from the country.

Cramer, who has also pushed for tariffs, tweeted Sunday, “we know this fight isn’t over” despite the OPEC+ agreement and promised “to make sure these countries hold up their end of the deal.”

“We will be watching every step of the way,” Cramer said.

On Saturday, Cramer said Saudi’s actions “waging war on American producers are not going to be easily or quickly forgotten.”

“Whether we can even have a strategic partnership will depend largely on their next steps in the verification of it,” he said.

INTERIOR ASSURES CASSIDY ‘DISCRETIONARY’ ROYALTY RELIEF IS AVAILABLE: A top official at the Interior Department reiterated to Cassidy Friday that the agency won’t be changing its practices to allow for a blanket reduction or suspension in royalty rates that energy producers on public lands and waters pay to the government.

Casey Hammond, acting assistant secretary of Land and Minerals Management, told Cassidy in a letter obtained by Josh that it intends to use “long-standing regulatory tools” allowing for individual companies to apply for “discretionary” royalty relief on a case-by-case basis.

But, he suggested, Interior won’t be “modifying our existing practices.” As of Friday, Interior has received one pre-application for royalty relief.

Cassidy, who represents Louisiana, has been one of the most outspoken Republicans calling for royalty relief for offshore producers in the Gulf of Mexico.

FIRSTENERGY LAGS ON PANDEMIC PRECAUTIONS, UNION SAYS: The Ohio-based investor-owned utility is still conducting normal meter reading and other work that isn’t an immediate priority, said James Slevin, national president of the Utility Workers Union of America.

Most other utilities are putting off nonemergency work, and FirstEnergy’s decision not to is endangering its workers and the public, Slevin told Abby in an interview. “It kind of angers me,” he said, adding such decisions are “reckless.”

FirstEnergy, which serves 6 million customers across six states, told Abby in a statement it is following all the precautions recommended by medical consultants, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, and the World Health Organization.

Charles Jones, the utility’s CEO, told employees in a video message recently that meter reading is a “pretty solitary job” during which workers “could very easily do the things that we’re asking from a social distancing perspective.” The company said it isn’t asking employees to go inside customers’ homes or premises to read meters.

More, including a look at how utility workers’ jobs are changing during the pandemic, in Abby’s story posted Friday.

CORONAVIRUS ISN’T SLOWING DOWN EPA’S AIR POLICY WORK: The agency is moving forward with a number of major rulemakings, including reviews of national ambient air quality standards for particulate matter and ozone.

The EPA is poised to release this week its proposed decision about whether to maintain current federal standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), which the EPA says poses a serious risk to human health and is the main cause of haze. Environmentalists will argue the EPA should strengthen the standards, though it’s more likely the agency will propose to retain the current levels.

EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler also recently told the agency’s science advisers he intends to finish a review of the ozone standards on time, by the end of this year (the standards must be reviewed every five years). Wheeler has been adamant the EPA will meet its deadlines, a feat it’s typically not been able to do.

One more thing to watch: The EPA is also looking to shake up the way it assesses the costs and benefits of its air quality rules, in a proposal the Trump administration says will streamline the process but environmentalists warn could undercut the agency’s ability to issue strong pollution rules. The agency sent its proposal to the White House for review Friday.

CONGRESS PUSHED TO BAN UTILITY SHUT-OFFS IN NEXT RELIEF PACKAGE: Congress should issue a national moratorium in a next pandemic relief bill, barring utilities from shutting off power for customers, even if they can’t pay their bills, more than 800 environmental, labor, civil rights, and faith advocacy groups said in a letter Monday.

The groups, which include Center for Biological Diversity, the National Wildlife Foundation, NAACP, Sunrise Movement, and Ceres, are asking that the moratorium last at least six months after the national state of emergency is lifted. They also want Congress to ensure any households where services have been shut off are reconnected. In addition, the groups are calling for massive investment in any stimulus package in distributed clean energy and programs to help low-income communities better afford essential utility services like electricity, water, and broadband.

The Rundown

Wall Street Journal Young shale CEO asks Texas to curb oil output as coronavirus cuts prices

Bloomberg Trump’s big oil deal won’t save the weakest of shale producers

Reuters A U.S. tribe’s uphill battle against climate change

Calendar

MONDAY | APRIL 13

House is not expected to meet before April 20. Senate is out until April 20.