A first-term president and unpopular congressional leaders are pushing a controversial legislative agenda that sparks a nationwide movement from the infuriated opposition. Retirements are suddenly putting the majority’s safe seats in play. Party leaders jam major legislation through Congress on a partisan vote, and are in such a hurry to pass it they’re rewriting it by hand hours before a vote. They lose control of their message and can't find an easy way to get back on track.

Then comes a stunning upset in a Senate special election for a seat the majority party had controlled for decades.


That year was 2010, when Republican Scott Brown’s upset win in the Massachusetts' Senate race to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy previewed a tea party-fueled Republican revolution that swept the GOP into power on Capitol Hill.

But after Democrat Doug Jones’ upset in Alabama on Tuesday, it could also describe the political trajectory of 2017 — except with Democrats instead of Republicans on the winning side.

Many Republicans insist that the similarities are superficial, that Brown’s shocking 2010 victory in deep-blue Massachusetts was a referendum on Obamacare while Tuesday’s win by Jones in dark-red Alabama happened only because of a deeply flawed Republican candidate, Roy Moore.

They also point out that the U.S. economy is growing, job growth is strong and unemployment is low, all of which are dramatically different from 2010.

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But even those Republicans acknowledge that this year’s intense engagement on the left — turnout in Alabama on Tuesday crushed state officials’ 25-percent expectations, ending up closer to 40 percent — carries echoes of the 2010 GOP wave.

“The enthusiasm, the movement across country, the reaction, the organizing, that seems very similar to me,” Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said.

Republicans ended up winning 63 House seats and six Senate seats in 2010, essentially wiping out a Democratic majority on Capitol Hill. It was a stunning result that no one thought possible in 2008, when former President Barack Obama led Democrats to a historic victory.

This year, President Donald Trump — who has the worst poll numbers of any president this early in his term — is leading House and Senate Republicans into a midterm election where their majorities are clearly at play. And Jones’ victory on Tuesday left other Republicans wondering if it’s their turn to get wiped out by an angry electorate fed up with Trump and the GOP.

“It feels like a little bit like 2006, and a little bit like 2010,” said Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), referring to the last two times the House changed hands. “I say that because you look at the retirements. You saw the same thing in 2006, and in 2010.”

Simpson rated the chances of a Democratic wave in 2018 as “50-50 right now.”

“[Trump] is making it very, very difficult,” Simpson added. “All the news about his latest tweet, and then he gets mad when we don’t defend it — well, we’ll see.”

Trump’s poll numbers are clearly scaring Republicans on Capitol Hill. He has a 24-point negative poll rating (32 favorable, 56 unfavorable), according to the latest Monmouth University poll. Obama never was this far down in the polls, and former President George W. Bush only reached those depths in his second term, amid a barrage of dismal news on the Iraq war and Republican scandals.

But it’s the generic “Republican vs. Democrat” poll that is most concerning for Republicans. Right now, Democrats have a 15-point lead, Monmouth said. For comparison, when Democrats won the House in 2006, they had a 10.5-point lead in the generic poll.

“Obviously, you’d like to see the president in the high 60s,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who was swept into the Senate in the GOP wave of 2010. “It’s not a mirror, but obviously it will be a challenging election cycle for us.”

That the House is in play is no surprise, at least based on history. The president's party has faced a median loss of 22 seats in modern midterm elections. With a current 239-193 seat margin in the House, that would put the GOP majority right on the edge of being swept away.

Democrats, though, have their own difficult path to navigate. They must bash Trump enough to please a progressive base that loathes the president, yet also offer a constructive path forward that can win over suburban battleground districts and independent voters.

For now, Democrats want to keep the focus on Trump and Republican agenda. Don't get bogged down in fights over the Russia collusion probe or impeachment. Special counsel Robert Mueller will make the case for that or not. Focus on the GOP agenda, as well as the Republicans' failure to do relatively simple jobs in governing, such as passing annual spending bill or extending medical insurance for children.

"I think President Trump has accelerated — and to some degree created — the angst that exists, which [Republicans] have compounded by doing things in a way that is contrary … in terms of transparency, openness and regular order," said House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). "As a result, their reputation now is of people who can’t govern. It’s a good political environment for us right now.”

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Steve Stivers of Ohio acknowledged there are parallels between 2010 and 2017, but insisted House Republicans have time to recover, especially if they pass a tax cut now and a big infrastructure package later.

Stivers also said “Roy Moore is Roy Moore,” noting other GOP candidates aren’t carrying the political baggage that Moore did.

"You can't compare a pedophile to anything," Stivers said of Moore, calling Alabama "a unique case."

"I think we'll see as we go along if there is a wave or isn't a wave building," Stivers added. "The only way Democrats have a shot at retaking the House is if Democrats expand the playing field, and so far, they haven't done that."

Stivers repeated over and over again that Republicans will use the specter of Nancy Pelosi returning as speaker and the “liberal” agenda as weapons against House Democrats.

Yet it's the Senate that's the real shock; 2018 was supposed to be a tough year for Senate Democrats. They have 25 seats up next year, versus just nine for Republicans. Ten of those Democratic seats are in states won by Trump, including North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and West Virginia, among others.

Now, control of the Senate is clearly up for grabs, surprising even Democrats.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who chaired House Democrats’ campaign arm in 2010 and leads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for this cycle, pointed to “lots of early signs” that this coming year will be a mirror image of that one.

“This is shaping up to be very similar, except for this time the wind is at the back of the Democrats,” Van Hollen said in an interview. “But we’ve got to sustain that wind.”

Off the Hill, the outside groups that are helping juice the party’s fundraising and messaging ahead of next year’s midterms are even more confident that a wave is coming.

"If Republicans can't see the 2010 parallels they need to open their eyes,” David Brock, chairman of the Democratic-leaning opposition group American Bridge, said in a statement. “Scott Brown's win previewed a Republican wave months later and Doug Jones' win is a jolt for Democrats nationally.”

One key similarity between this year’s political landscape and 2010 is the emergence of a network of anti-Trump resistance groups that swarmed GOP town halls earlier this year to fight against the party’s Obamacare repeal plans. Parts of the liberal resistance were consciously modeled on the tea party — but unlike the tea party, Democratic moderates have largely escaped the left’s ire this year.

“Alabama election officials were talking about 25 percent of the people voting,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Wednesday, but the ultimate turnout figure is estimated to have topped that significantly. “People want to get their country back, away from Trump and people who reflect his point of view, so I am optimistic about where we’re going.”

Republicans who pushed back at the suggestion that their party is facing a 2010-style midterm backlash pointed to Moore’s history of espousing fringe views even before multiple women came forward to say he sexually assaulted or harassed them. Voters elected the GOP in 2010 out of distaste for Obama’s agenda, Republicans argue, while Jones won on Tuesday because voters were repudiating Moore personally — not Trump or the party.

“If you look at the map and look at the opportunities in Missouri, the opportunities in Indiana and North Dakota and around the country, they are states that President Trump won,” said Sen. Cory Gardner (Colo.), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

“And if anybody is thinking this race in Alabama was about the Republican agenda, then there’s probably some pretty good icebergs in Texas.”

Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas), who helped elect six new GOP senators as chairman of the NRSC in 2010, also shrugged off any comparisons between the coming midterms and that year.

“I’ve never seen a political landscape like this before,” Cornyn told reporters.