1. Gary Sanchez posts most valuable season by a catcher since Joe Mauer‘s 2009

No offence to Buster Posey and his 2012 NL MVP award, but we’ve got to go bolder here. Mauer slashed an absurd .365/.444/.587 with 28 HR, 94 R and 98 RBI in his 2009 MVP campaign. Out of all catchers since fantasy baseball became a thing, his 1.031 OPS trails only Mike Piazza‘s 1997 season. Sanchez’s OPS over his 52-game debut in 2016? 1.032.

If he gets at least 140 starts, I could see him slugging 40+ HR along with a .280 AVG and a .360 OBP. That’s great, but even better are the counting stats Sanchez will rack up batting behind Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. I think he easily cracks 100 RBI and single-handedly wins some fantasy championships.

2. Anthony Alford is the most valuable Blue Jays outfielder

This is less of a bold prediction and more a reflection on the mess that is the Blue Jays’ tangled outfield depth chart. They’ve got eight guys who will probably get at-bats, and only Kevin Pillar is projected to break 2 WAR. And Kevin Pillar’s stellar defence doesn’t count in fantasy. Randal Grichuk could pull a Jose Bautista and start mashing at the Rogers Centre, but beyond that the other options either need to be platooned (Granderson, Pearce, Hernandez), or kinda suck (Dwight Smith Jr., Dalton Pompey).

I see Alford’s blend of speed, patience and on-base ability translating to something like a .280/.350/.410 Major league line. Provided he gets enough at-bats, he could tack on 20+ SB to return some nice fantasy value.

3. Adam Eaton leads the NL in runs

This is probably the boldest prediction of the bunch. Eaton’s never even scored 100 runs in a season, much less led the league. But there are four reasons I’m optimistic about this one panning out.

He gets on base consistently He’s led the NL in triples twice, meaning he’s fast as hell He’ll bat first for the NL’s most potent offence I specified NL, which means I don’t have to worry about George Springer, Jose Altuve, Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez, or Mike Trout.

The guys I do have to worry about are Paul Goldschmidt and Charlie Blackmon, to which I say humidor and regression, respectively. Even if he doesn’t lead the league in homers, I’m loving the value at his current 144 ADP.

4. Luis Severino wins the AL Cy Young

This seems bold but all I need is a Corey Kluber injury and a continuation of Chris Sale‘s second half homer issues. Steamer is pessimistic about the repeatability of his 2.98 ERA, projecting him at 3.56, but according to his 3.05 DRA he didn’t just get lucky. The underlying skills support this: the 23 K-BB% fueled by a trimmed down walk rate, and the 13% whiff rate fueled by nasty stuff. His changeup in particular developed in leaps and bounds in 2017. And if wins still matter to the voters, Severino should have no trouble racking those up with ample run support.

5. Cody Bellinger bats under .240

I’m not betting against Bellinger’s power. He’ll probably hit about 40 homers, but the average is due for regression. Steamer’s .252 AVG is the most bearish projection, but after watching playoff-caliber pitchers exploit his vulnerability on the inner half, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bellinger goes through a significant sophomore slump.

Like Aaron Judge, he has the raw power to offset a 13% swinging strike rate. But unlike Aaron Judge, he has a glaring hole in his uppercut swing. Bellinger batted just .214 on pitches low and inside, and pitchers will adjust accordingly. I project him to return value closer to Steven Souza than George Springer, a guy he’s currently being drafted ahead of.

6. Lewis Brinson will outproduce the guy he was traded for (Christian Yelich), emerging as this year’s Tommy Pham

Last year I took a $1 flier on Tommy Pham in both of my dynasty leagues after noting his 92 MPH average exit velocity put him in the top 20, right above Josh Donaldson. Of course, exit velocity isn’t everything, as Keon Broxton can tell you. But Pham also ranked high in Barrels/PA, could run well, walked over 10% of the time, and had excellent pitch selection. The only red flag was a sky high 39% strikeout rate over small but meaningful 78 game sample.

Much the same can be said for Lewis Brinson, who I’m picking as 2018’s Tommy Pham. Over his 30 game 2017 debut he posted a 91 MPH average exit velocity (on par with Gary Sanchez, Manny Machado, Rhys Hoskins), a 12.7% walk rate, and flashed excellent speed. Like Pham, the strikeout rate was north of 30%, and his exit velocity was wasted burning worms (57% groundball rate).

I’m not too concerned with Brinson fighting for playing time against Miami’s dumpster fire outfield options, so provided he trims the strikeouts a bit and figures out how to elevate the ball I’m confident he’s poised for a breakout. The upside of .280 and 20-20 HR/SB might not be enough to catch Yelich, but hey these are bold predictions.

7. Aaron Nola is a top 8 SP

He’s currently the 18th SP off the board according to his 68 ADP, but I could easily see him turning in a top-8 season. The only remaining question for me is his durability as he’s battled minor injuries over the past two seasons, but he just gives off that workhorse vibe to me for some reason. His arsenal is filthy, his command is among the best in baseball, and he should get a bump in wins pitching in front of an improved Phillies offence. Perhaps the most exciting stat from 2017 is his 2.64 DRA (4th-best in MLB), which suggests he got seriously unlucky in the ERA department. In fact, of all pitchers who threw 140+ IP, Nola had the largest discrepancy between his ERA and DRA.

Provided he gets 30 starts I wouldn’t be surprised if he outperforms Carlos Carrasco, who’s going 34 picks earlier in drafts right now.

8. Alex Avila heats up in the desert, is a top-3 fantasy catcher

Humidor be damned. Avila is another one of my average exit velocity darlings – his 90.7 MPH mark last season matched Jose Abreu and Bryce Harper. Beyond my belief in Avila, this prediction is more a bet on increased playing time and the fact that catcher is a wasteland after the front three of Sanchez, Posey and Contreras. And if we go by wRC+, Avila out-hit even Contreras last season. His 124 wRC+ was fourth among qualified catchers, and his 16.5% walk rate was far and away the best, leading to a juicy .387 OBP.

All sorts of things could throw a wrench into this prediction: like Francisco Mejia bursting onto the scene, or like Mike Zunino blasting 40 dingers, or like Robinson Chirinos fulfilling his pre-season sleeper hype. But what I’m most worried about is Jeff Mathis‘ superb pitch framing skills. Despite recording just a 52 OPS+ over his seemingly endless career, the Diamondbacks seem to have bought into his impact behind the plate as a framer, which could eat into Avila’s playing time in a major way.

9. Xander Bogaerts poops the bed again, finishing outside the top-10 SS

“But the only reason he sucked in 2017 was that he was playing through a wrist injury! And even still he was decent.” Fair. He’s probably due for a bit of a bounce-back this season. But not the kind of bounce-back that will justify drafting him as a top-10 shortstop (74 ADP).

My pessimism is driven by his awful pitch recognition. Of all qualified batters last year, nobody had a smaller gap between their chase rate and zone swing rate. In other words, Bogaerts was really bad both at laying off balls and swinging at strikes. You might be able to partly chalk it up to injury, as his 53% Z-Swing was a career-low, but he’s always had a questionable approach at the plate. Somehow he managed to draw enough walks to end up at a respectable .273/.343, but Statcast’s xBA statistic thinks he got very lucky.

The only reason I wasn’t bolder with this prediction is that he’ll make up for his lack of power and mediocre rate stats by racking up runs and RBIs batting in the heart of the Red Sox lineup.

10. Alex Reyes emerges as the Cardinals closer, saving at least 20 games

The Cardinals’ rotation is projected to be Martinez-Wainwright-Wacha-Weaver-Mikolas. And with Jack Flaherty and Conner Greene pushing up through the Minors, Alex Reyes is going to have to shut down any post-Tommy John concerns quickly if he wants to get meaningful innings. I’m betting he does that within the first month of the season. He’s too special a talent to question. With is 100 MPH+ fastball and sharp curve, his career average allowed is just below the Mendoza line (.199).

Here are the facts about the closer part of the prediction:

There were rumours in February that the Cardinals might use him as their closer. A week later Card’s GM Michael Girsch denied it. In 17.1 innings as a reliever Reyes owns a 0.52 ERA with 23 strikeouts. The current closer hierarchy is Luke Gregerson (currently injured, 4.57 ERA last season), then Dominic Leone (the 7th inning man in Toronto last year, quietly a stud).

I see a path there. If Gregerson’s injury nags and Leone can’t handle the 9th inning Alex Reyes suddenly becomes an attractive option. The last concern is that the Cards cap Reyes’ innings post surgery, but we’re being bold here.