Will Obama’s Wednesday embrace of same-sex marriage equality hurt him in November? The short answer is: possible, but not likely.

First, as a general proposition, it seems unlikely that there are large numbers of socially conservative voters who lean Obama today but will be transformed into opponents simply by his declared support for marriage equality. Obama’s backing for equality for gays has, after all, been apparent throughout his administration, most famously in ending the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy in the military. A voter who’s stuck with Obama through all that is unlikely to be stampeded in the opposite direction by a position that follows so directly from those previous actions.

Second, the idea that this position will put him at serious risk among minority voters is vastly overblown. It is true that black voters are relatively conservative on this issue. According to the latest Pew poll, 49 percent oppose same sex marriage compared to 43 percent overall. But opposition among blacks is declining very rapidly indeed—down almost 4 points a year over the last four years. And it seems fanciful that many black opponents of gay marriage will transcend their very strong loyalty to the Democratic Party in general, and Obama, the first African-American president, in particular to vote against him solely on that basis.

Hispanics are also not a plausible candidate for significant desertions based on the issue. They are not even particularly conservative on marriage equality: In the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 55 percent supported marriage equality compared to 49 percent overall. We should not expect to see many Hispanics abandoning Obama simply on this issue and embracing his opponent, Mitt Romney, who holds hugely unpopular positions on immigration, an issue of far more importance to these voters.

Indeed, many issues are more important to minority voters than gay marriage—or other social issues for that matter. Over the years, these voters have shown great reluctance to cast their ballots on social issues and this time is unlikely to be any different.