Anyone who knows anything about Cam Johnson knows that he’s one of the best shooters in the country. He’s the best shooting prospect in this class and he’s as close as you can get to an elite shooter through the draft. Johnson’s combination of size, quick release, shot preparation, and ability to shoot off movement make him really hard to defend. and he’s able to bring a team a lot of value on the offensive end.

Let’s take a quick look at his Synergy profile. Here are his three most frequent play types:

It’s pretty obvious that Johnson isn’t a player who needs the ball in his hands at all times, as most of his play types come off the ball or in transition, where he usually isn’t the one pushing the ball. As one of the best shooters in the draft, Johnson will bring value to an offense without demanding the ball at all times. Even without touching the ball, his shooting gravity will open up shots for teammates.

Now here is a screenshot of Klay Thompson’s three most frequent play types this year:

While there are some differences in the distribution of play types, both Johnson and Thompson have the same three most frequent play types, and it accounts for 63.6 percent and 65.8 percent of their total play types respectively. This isn’t meant to compare Cam Johnson to one of the best shooters of all time, even if I think there is a chance that Cam Johnson is a special shooter himself. This is meant to show that Johnson can bring a lot of value to an offense without having the ball a lot just like Klay Thompson does, but to a lesser extent.

Here is another screenshot of Johnson’s Synergy page, but this time showing his overall shooting numbers:

As I stated earlier, Johnson is as close as you can get to an elite shooter through the draft. Nobody is ever guaranteed to replicate their college or international production in the NBA – and it’s unfair to ask that of someone – but I would take that calculated risk with someone like Johnson and draft him knowing that he has a decent chance at being an elite shooter. Looking at the numbers above, you can see he doesn’t really have a weakness when it comes to shooting. We’ll dive into his mechanics below, but his size and quick release allow him to shoot over defenders closing out. And while he isn’t going to be asked to create many shots for himself off the dribble, he’s shown that he is capable of attacking a closeout with a dribble pull-up.

Before we dive in, let’s talk about Johnson’s shot mechanics as a whole. To keep things simple, his form is beautiful. But if we look a little deeper, you can see that his release point may be a little low (relative to his size), but it doesn’t hurt him at all because his height allows him to shoot over players anyways. In fact, this might even help Johnson because having a slightly lower release point helps him have a quicker release. His quick release also stems from his torso and arms (especially elbows) always being pre-positioned to shoot. This allows him to square up for shots quickly.

Throughout all of the following shooting clips, you’ll notice his quick release and shot preparation. Watch his feet and see how quickly he gets set for his shot. In addition to his release, you will also see his off-movement shooting, range, and a few other things.

As mentioned above, Johnson is more than capable of shooting off-movement. According to Synergy, he ranks in the 97th percentile on “off screen” play types, producing 1.444 points per possession. In these first four clips, you can see his ability to come off screens going left and right, and knock down his shot with ease. Specifically, the first clip is one of my favorite clips of Johnson this year. You can see him catch the ball coming off the screen and turning midair to square to the basket. He gives De’Andre Hunter no time to contest his shot.

*For Youtube videos – watch until the the subtitle changes unless otherwise noted.*

In these next three clips you can see how his size and quick release allow him to get almost any shot off. Defenders try to get a hand up on his shot but it doesn’t matter because of his size. Closeouts rarely affect Johnson’s shot, as he ranks in the 98th percentile in ‘guarded catch-and-shoot’ situations:

There isn’t anyone else who is able to get that last shot off (clip versus Clemson) in college. That is a perfect example of him using his size and quick release to his advantage.

While some people will question whether or not someone’s shot will translate to NBA range, there’s no reason to question that with Johnson given what we’ve seen from him.

According to our shot chart by Will Schreefer, as of March 31st only 103 college players attempted 125+ NBA 3s. The average of these players was 36.16 percent from NBA range. To nobody’s surprise, Johnson ranked first of the group, hitting them at a rate of 46.3 percent (75-162).

Below are the top 25:

One might say that this list doesn’t mean much because there aren’t many top prospects on it. While that is a fair argument, most of the other guys have flaws (Bennie Boatwright – defense; Kyle Guy/Markus Howard – size; Ty Jerome – athleticism). The other knockdown shooters who have size like Johnson (Boatwright and Franks) can’t shoot off of movement as well as Johnson does. They also have more concerns on the defensive end. People do have concerns about Johnson’s defense and who will he guard at the next level. While it is a fair concern, I don’t think he will be a big liability on that end and that is something I’ll go into later.

If we add a little more range and look at 3s from 25+ feet, we get a list of 87 players. Here are the top 25 players on that list:

The average of these 87 players was 35.11 percent from 25+ feet. It’s crazy to know that Johnson shot over 50 percent from shots 25 feet and over from the basket, but as the best shooter in this class, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Johnson has NBA range. Now let’s get back to some film:

Johnson has also shown some ability to shoot off the dribble. While he won’t be asked to create for himself at the next level, this is important to note because it will add onto his game when he does have to attack closeouts or when he gets run off the line. In the last clip of the video, Keldon Johnson goes under a screen and gives Cam Johnson the smallest bit of space. Cam Johnson recognizes this right away and makes him pay:

Johnson’s shooting also brings value that you can’t find when looking at box scores or stats. The shooting gravity that he will bring to the court will open up driving lanes for teammates. Defenders will be scared to leave him and help off of him so that opens up the rest of the court more. In addition to that, Johnson is capable of running off of screens. Even though he might be a little slower than you’d like, multiple defenders will jump out at him from time to time because of miscommunications and not wanting to leave him open. You see examples of this a lot with Marco Belinelli, Klay Thompson, Kyle Korver, JJ Redick, and others:

This isn’t meant to compare Johnson to any of those players. Johnson won’t be asked to constantly run off screens like Redick. The point is to give examples of great shooters and show how they’ve been able to help their team get an open look even when they aren’t putting up a shot.

Speaking of Redick, he is going to be a free agent this upcoming offseason, and the Philadelphia 76ers needs shooters who have gravity spacing the floor. If Johnson falls to Philly at the 24th pick, he will most likely be my #1 choice for them. I will be very surprised if Johnson is on the board and Philly passes on him unless someone else surprisingly drops. Johnson isn’t on Redick’s level of off-movement shooting – or shooting in general – but he might be the best realistic option to replace Redick, if needed. Even if Redick returns to Philly, Johnson would be a great pick. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson is picked before Philly’s pick. The Thunder and the Jazz are two teams picking before the 76ers and they both could use some shooting, just like every other team in the NBA.

Anyways, back to talking Johnson’s shooting gravity. Below is a 30 second video (3 clips) showing examples of how Johnson helps his team get open looks without putting up shots:

As you can see above, the defense is worried about Johnson’s shot. It’s a lot more clear in the first and last clip as Johnson is running off screens because guys jump at him and he just passes it to the open man. In the last clip, his pass isn’t perfect but you can still see how his shooting gravity gave Coby White space to get a shot off. The second clip might not be as clear to some people because he just stands in the corner without touching the ball. Once White gets into the paint, Jericho Sims has to make a decision of whether he wants to help Elijah Mitrou-Long on the drive or stay with Johnson in the corner. While he isn’t to blame for staying with Johnson and giving up a layup, this shows an example of Johnson’s gravity and the spacing he brings. If you have someone who can’t shoot in the corner, the defense can just help off of him and contest the shot at the rim.

A very underrated aspect of Johnson’s game is his passing. While he isn’t an elite passer, Johnson is an above average passer for his size, mainly because of his IQ. He has shown impressive reads in the halfcourt and in transition. In the halfcourt, Johnson makes passes coming off screens and handoffs. He has also shown some nice entry passes, drive and dump-offs, and even a really nice pass out of the pick-and-roll.

In the ‘quick reads’ portion of the video below, Johnson uses his IQ to make quick and smart reads in the halfcourt, finding teammates on backdoors and cuts:

In addition to Johnson’s quick reads in the halfcourt, he also makes nice reads in transition. In the ‘transition’ portion you can see him find his teammates running the floor, whether it’s a quick touch pass or a pass off the dribble:

These next two clips are examples of situations that might be used frequently with Johnson. As mentioned earlier, he is really dangerous when running off screens. His shooting off movement is deadly and that will force defenses to make a decision on how they want to guard him. (I can already see Johnson passing it to Embiid popping and either making a 3 or attacking a closeout.) Unfortunately for the defenses, he is more than capable of making the right passes in these situations.

In the video below, there are a few “other” clips that didn’t fit into the previous categories. In the first clip, we see Johnson used in the pick-and-roll, which is something that he doesn’t normally do. There isn’t much to take away from this because he won’t be asked to do this at the next level, but it was an impressive pass nonetheless. In the last clip, we see Johnson attack the basket and dump it off to a teammate. This is something that we might see more of at the next level because opponents will have to close out on him. One flaw of Johnson’s is that he has a loose handle, but if he can improve his handle to where he can constantly attack closeouts and get into the lane, we might see this more frequently with his IQ and passing:

Now that we’re done talking about the obvious part of Cam Johnson’s game – his offense – let’s dive into his defense. A lot of people have concerns about what position Johnson will guard at the next level and think that he will be a negative on that end. While the concerns are fair, he actually showed plenty of promising possessions on different types of archetypes this year. I’m not saying that he is going to be a positive, or even neutral on that end, although it wouldn’t surprise me. My point is that he is not going to be as bad as some people think on defense and his offensive value will outweigh it.

Before we dive into some film, let’s get this straight. Ideally, Cam Johnson adds strength and is able to guard 3s and 4s at the next level. Right now, he isn’t strong enough to guard 4s and some 3s will still bully him. Because of that, he currently doesn’t have a specific position he can guard night-in-and-night-out, and that is where most people’s concerns come in. I still have more faith than most people though with his current tools. It will depend some on the matchups, but Johnson has shown the ability to guard a few different types of players where he could be fine for now. If he is able to add strength, he should be able to hold his own quite well with his tools. Since Johnson doesn’t have the strength to deal with some 3s and most 4s, and it isn’t guaranteed he will, let’s look at what he can defend right now.

To start, Johnson moves his feet well for his size. He’s not extremely quick or twitchy but he has had some nice possessions guarding other top prospects on the perimeter such as RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Keldon Johnson, and Tre Jones. It should be noted that these guards and wings are not explosive types, but they are still potential NBA players that will be playing at the next level with Johnson:

As you can see above, Johnson is capable of staying with some perimeter players. He showed quick reaction time in the clip defending Ahmed Hill and showed change of direction ability in the clips against RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. One of Johnson’s weaknesses is changing directions against shifty players, but we’ll touch on that later.

This next part is where things get a bit interesting. Heading into this season, I didn’t think I’d be okay with Johnson chasing guys around screens, but here we are. The improvement in technique by Johnson from last year to this year is impressive. He still messes up every now and then, which causes him to get hit by screens, but he does a nice job overall staying with his opponent. Below are some clips of Johnson chasing guys off screens such as Tyler Herro, Nathan Hoover, and Cam Reddish. Pay attention to the differences in Johnson’s technique when he gets around screens compared to when he gets caught by them.

*Watch 1 Clip*

As you can see above, Johnson is able to get around screens and stay with guys when he gets low and dips his shoulder. When he decides to be straight up, he gets caught by a screen and gives up some space. A perfect example of both sides of the spectrum is this clip guarding Tyler Herro. Notice how he gets low on the first screen but doesn’t on the second screen.

*Watch 1 Clip*

This upcoming clip is Johnson guarding Nathan Hoover of Wofford. This would have been a perfect possession from beginning to end if Johnson hadn’t lost focus for half a second. The tough part about guarding great shooters is that if you make small mistake, they get the tiniest amount of space they need to get their shot off. This happens with Johnson here, but he still shows some nice technique getting around the screen.

*Watch 1 Clip*

This next clip is just another possession of Johnson showing nice technique:

Now I’m not hammering the idea that Johnson should be chasing guys around screens at the next level. I know he isn’t quick enough to guard someone who runs at full speed coming off of screens like JJ Redick. But there are some guys that he can stay with such as Jeremy Lamb and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. I wouldn’t expect him to stay with someone like Wayne Ellington, but I wouldn’t say that it’s completely out of the picture if he gets a bit quicker.

As I said earlier, one of Johnson’s weaknesses is changing directions against shifty players. While he’s able to move his feet well enough to guard some perimeter players, he’s not capable of defending someone like CJ McCollum. Jordan Poole is a shifty, talented scorer and had a couple of possessions where he got open looks with Johnson defending him:

Moving on, let’s look at some of Johnson’s defense off the ball. He makes nice reads and positions himself well in these situations. When someone is driving, Johnson knows what rotation to make and where to be. While he isn’t big enough to be able to make a huge impact protecting the rim, his defensive awareness and IQ allows him to get some steals or even just forces the offense to make an extra pass:

Finally, we have a couple more possessions that don’t fall under a specific category. This first clip is just an all around nice defensive possession by Johnson.

*Watch 1 Clip*

As you can see, Johnson moves his feet with Jordan Poole for a few steps stopping the drive before Michigan resets their offense. He then quickly stunts on Zavier Simpson’s drive while being able to easily recover to Poole in the corner. Finally, Johnson is able to contest Poole’s step-back shot.

In this final clip of Johnson’s defense, he shows his ability to deny the ball. He did this multiple times throughout the year and even came up with some steals because of his length. Johnson also moves his feet on the drive and blocks the shot:

Overall, I think Johnson’s defense has gone underrated. As demonstrated in the above clips, he has promising plays on that side of the ball and shouldn’t be a total liability on that end. Once again, I am not trying to convince you that he is going to be a positive on defense even though I think it’s possible. I am trying to convince you that his defensive is not as bad as people make it out to be and he can be neutral on that end – or even slightly negative – where his offensive value will make him a positive on the floor.

I have thought that Cam Johnson was a top 20 prospect for a while now, even when he was projected to be a mid-2nd round pick. Now a lot of mocks have him projected to go in the 1st round and I agree fully. He might not be the steal of the draft he would have been months ago, but he can still provide the value of a top 10 player in this class with his potentially elite shooting.