Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd January 2011

Today’s Sunday Independent poll produced some interesting figures and were reflective no doubt of Fianna Fail and Brian Cowen’s recent travails : Fianna Fail 8%, Fine Gael 27%, Labour 29%, Sinn Fein 8%, Green Party 3%, Others 11% (doesn’t include Don’t Knows). As this poll was just based on 200 responses, it is not as reliable as polls carried out by Ispos-MRBI and Red C and as such does not warrant the equivalent analysis offered to those polls. Hence the next RedC and Ispos-MRBI polls will provide more reliable estimates of current party support. Nevertheless, based on the analysis and model used for my previous such analyses (and excluding the seat automatically won by Seamus Kirk due to his post as Ceann Comhairle) the following number of seats would be won by the different parties: Fianna Fail 1, Fine Gael 65, Labour 67, Sinn Fein 12, Green Party 0, Others 20.

On these figures, the only Fianna Fail seat won in the election would be won in Laois-Offaly by outgoing party leader, Brian Cowen – the addition of Seamus Kirk would result in a doubling of those seat numbers.

Using the same methods as for previous poll analyses, party support in the different constituencies would be estimated as follows:

FF FG LB GP SF OTH Carlow-Kilkenny 12.3% 39.2% 35.9% 6.8% 5.9% 0.0% Cavan-Monaghan 9.4% 39.9% 4.5% 3.0% 29.9% 13.3% Clare 12.0% 49.5% 6.4% 4.6% 5.6% 21.8% Cork East 6.8% 28.2% 55.3% 1.7% 7.3% 0.8% Cork North Central 6.7% 26.7% 34.6% 2.2% 9.2% 20.6% Cork North West 15.8% 58.8% 21.8% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% Cork South Central 11.0% 36.2% 34.2% 6.9% 7.6% 4.0% Cork South West 10.1% 43.6% 33.9% 5.3% 7.2% 0.0% Donegal North East 13.2% 30.5% 20.5% 1.2% 27.5% 7.0% Donegal South West 14.4% 33.7% 11.8% 1.4% 36.3% 2.4% Dublin Central 8.7% 9.6% 36.7% 3.8% 10.8% 30.4% Dublin Mid West 7.8% 23.4% 38.4% 8.5% 13.1% 8.7% Dublin North 9.7% 16.6% 32.9% 12.7% 3.7% 24.5% Dublin North Central 9.9% 29.4% 24.3% 3.9% 5.1% 27.5% Dublin North East 8.2% 24.3% 46.5% 4.6% 16.5% 0.0% Dublin North West 9.3% 9.7% 57.4% 1.7% 17.9% 3.9% Dublin South 10.5% 35.5% 39.4% 9.3% 4.6% 0.6% Dublin South Central 5.4% 12.0% 50.9% 3.1% 9.8% 18.9% Dublin South East 5.9% 19.8% 51.3% 9.5% 5.9% 7.6% Dublin South West 6.9% 18.2% 52.5% 2.2% 12.9% 7.4% Dublin West 6.6% 18.5% 44.9% 2.2% 5.1% 22.7% Dun Laoghaire 6.8% 23.7% 46.7% 5.0% 2.6% 15.1% Galway East 10.6% 53.8% 12.5% 1.7% 5.1% 16.2% Galway West 7.5% 21.3% 33.4% 3.7% 3.6% 30.5% Kerry North-West Limerick 6.1% 32.2% 31.5% 1.2% 23.7% 5.3% Kerry South 7.7% 24.3% 37.9% 1.2% 4.0% 25.0% Kildare North 7.2% 20.0% 47.6% 3.0% 2.7% 19.5% Kildare South 10.6% 18.5% 64.5% 4.3% 0.0% 2.2% Laois-Offaly 20.0% 49.9% 12.6% 1.3% 10.9% 5.2% Limerick City 12.7% 34.2% 40.1% 2.3% 6.6% 4.1% Limerick 13.7% 59.6% 24.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% Longford-Westmeath 8.3% 32.1% 53.0% 1.2% 4.7% 0.7% Louth 10.8% 38.7% 19.0% 6.5% 23.1% 2.0% Mayo 7.9% 64.0% 20.5% 0.6% 7.0% 0.0% Meath East 9.3% 28.4% 37.9% 2.2% 5.0% 17.2% Meath West 14.7% 42.6% 17.2% 2.4% 19.3% 3.9% Roscommon-South Leitrim 8.3% 42.7% 36.8% 1.3% 10.7% 0.3% Sligo-North Leitrim 10.5% 51.7% 14.8% 2.6% 18.0% 2.4% Tipperary North 5.9% 14.0% 26.3% 0.6% 3.9% 49.3% Tipperary South 4.4% 17.8% 21.4% 0.8% 3.0% 52.6% Waterford 10.2% 30.9% 37.1% 1.5% 8.9% 11.4% Wexford 9.1% 34.9% 44.2% 0.8% 9.5% 1.4% Wicklow 3.7% 18.6% 38.0% 3.8% 4.7% 31.3% STATE 9.3% 31.4% 33.7% 3.5% 9.3% 12.8%

Based on these constituency estimates, I would guesstimate the seats tallies per constituencies as follows (now including the one seat won by Fianna Fail in Louth automatically by virtue of Seamus Kirk being Ceann Comhairle):

FF FG LB GP SF OTH Carlow-Kilkenny 3 2 Cavan-Monaghan 3 2 Clare 3 1 Cork East 1 3 Cork North Central 1 2 1 Cork North West 2 1 Cork South Central 3 2 Cork South West 2 1 Donegal North East 1 1 1 Donegal South West 1 2 Dublin Central 2 2 Dublin Mid West 1 2 1 Dublin North 1 2 1 Dublin North Central 1 1 1 Dublin North East 1 2 Dublin North West 2 1 Dublin South 2 3 Dublin South Central 1 3 1 Dublin South East 1 3 Dublin South West 1 2 1 Dublin West 1 2 1 Dun Laoghaire 1 2 1 Galway East 3 1 Galway West 1 2 2 Kerry North-West Limerick 1 1 1 Kerry South 1 1 1 Kildare North 1 2 1 Kildare South 1 2 Laois-Offaly 1 3 1 Limerick City 2 2 Limerick 2 1 Longford-Westmeath 1 3 Louth 1 2 1 1 Mayo 4 1 Meath East 1 2 Meath West 2 1 Roscommon-South Leitrim 2 1 Sligo-North Leitrim 2 1 Tipperary North 1 2 Tipperary South 1 2 Waterford 2 2 Wexford 2 3 Wicklow 1 2 2 STATE 2 65 67 0 12 20

As these figures are based on a poll involving an unsatisfactory number of respondents (yes, I am aware of the fact!), it doesn’t not warrant much further comment, but I thought it an interesting exercise to detect how low Fianna Fail seat numbers could fall if their support levels fell even further than their low-to-mid teens ranking of recent Rec C and Ispos-MRBI polls. This show that on these figures, Fianna Fail would be cursed by the catch-all nature of their support geography into an effective wipe out of the party personnel. The party’s ability to win support in all areas of the state means that it has usually been able to achieve significant seats-bonuses in the last general elections when the party’s support levels fell in the high 30s and low 40s. But this catch all nature of support would be a curse (akin in a way to the Liberal Democrats in the UK) if the party support levels was to fall to especially low levels similar to that suggested in the Sunday Indepdendent poll. To make matters worse, the issues of vote-splitting between two or more candidates and the likely transfer-toxic nature of the party in the upcoming election means that the impact of low support levels would be even further exacerbated.

0.000000 0.000000