Gillibrand appears to have a good shot at picking up 51 or more votes. Gillibrand ups sex assault bill effort

Military sexual assault is dividing the Senate but not along typical partisan battle lines.

This war has Democrat fighting Democrat and Republican fighting Republican — with the two sides slowly solidifying ahead of a floor vote expected for this fall to remove the Pentagon’s chain of command from prosecutions of major crimes.


Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) appears to have a good shot at picking up 51 or more votes for her amendment, but getting a filibuster-breaking 60 votes is far from a sure thing.

( QUIZ: Do you know Kirsten Gillibrand?)

So until the vote on the sexual assault proposal — which the military opposes — Gillibrand is engaging in a very public one-by-one lobbying effort with fellow senators.

On Tuesday night, she cornered South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott in the GOP’s private cloakroom. Along with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), she also targeted undecided Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), who was sitting at his desk near the back of the chamber.

One of Gillibrand’s leading Republican allies is also quietly lobbying his GOP colleagues and expects they can run up the score during the floor vote on the defense authorization bill.

( Also on POLITICO: One senator's climb to 51 votes)

“If it gets a significant bipartisan vote, let’s say it gets like more than 60, and I think there’s a chance it could. I think it’ll be tough to take it out,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said.

But Gillibrand still has some work to do on the Democratic side of the aisle, where she faces opposition from Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin and Sen. Claire McCaskill, who have already loaded up the defense bill with about two dozen provisions they say will address the issue, including making it a crime to retaliate against victims who speak out, prohibiting sex offenders from enlisting and expanding legal services and counseling from an Air Force pilot program to the entire military.

Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Patty Murray support the underlying legislation from Levin’s committee. But they say they also have given Gillibrand a commitment to support her on the floor — boosting the number of supporters for the amendment to 46.

( PHOTOS: Key players in military sexual assault fight)

Many senators said they’re comfortable sitting on the fence for a little while longer, eager to hear more from Gillibrand and her opponents plus military brass and service members while back in their states during the recess.

“I’m reviewing both bills. We haven’t made a decision yet on which one we’re going to support,” Sen. Marco Rubio said Wednesday. The Florida Republican said he has met with Gillibrand and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. James Amos, with more talks to come with other Pentagon leaders. “We’ll have more to say once we’ve gone through that process.”

Much is at stake in this battle — with Gillibrand proposing the largest overhaul to the military’s modern-day justice system since its creation in 1950. While Gillibrand welcomes the provisions Levin and McCaskill have already added to the bill, she says more must be done to give victims assurances that they’ll get justice after reporting an alleged crime.

Gillibrand’s opponents are also working the vote ahead of the fall showdown.

McCaskill said she briefly discussed the issue with President Barack Obama during a flight to Missouri last week on Air Force One. She’s also brought in senior military leaders and recently retired brass to share their views on why the chain of command should stay in place.

On the floor Tuesday, Sen. Jim Inhofe, ranking member of the Armed Services Committee, edged up to Heller at the same time he was hearing the pitch from Gillibrand and Boxer.

“When they’re all through with you,” Inhofe said to his GOP colleague in a conversation audible to reporters in the gallery overlooking the floor. Boxer gently ribbed back at Inhofe: “Stay out of it.”

In an interview after that exchange, the Oklahoma Republican said he wanted to follow up with Heller by explaining the level of opposition against Gillibrand from active and retired military.

“I respect and admire Gillibrand for her tenacity. And it’s just that, I just don’t, it just can’t happen,” Inhofe said. “And, of course, if she gets a positive vote with all of her efforts, it’s not going to survive conference anyway.”

Sen. John McCain, another leading opponent of Gillibrand’s bill, said he’s not conceding she will win on the floor. “We’ve been counting votes, too, and I’ve not yet seen her 51 yet,” the Arizona Republican said. “She certainly has significant support, but we’ll have to wait and see, I think.”

Gillibrand said her goal is to connect with every senator before the floor debate. She said she has more commitments from senators beyond those who have spoken up. “Hopefully they’ll make their views public soon,” she said Tuesday after her lobbying blitz on the floor, aided by a staffer carrying a list of senators she should connect with.

She plans to talk with about a dozen senators who haven’t heard from her, either in person or with phone calls over the August break. No one is off-limits, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who she has already spoken with a couple times and hopes to convert the same way she recently won over fellow Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul.

“It’s a matter of advocacy and spending time with people and taking them through the issue, explaining it in detail,” Gillibrand said. “Also, them having an opportunity to talk to victims from their states and really understand how its impacted people that they represent — that’s vital.”

Ahead of the vote, Gillibrand and her allies are keeping the fence-sitters on their toes. Grassley said he has met with GOP Sens. John Boozman, Mike Crapo, Mike Enzi and John Thune. “I’ve had a good reception by everybody, but I think I’ve only converted a couple people, and I won’t name them,” Grassley said.

Gillibrand also sat down with Enzi just as Liz Cheney was announcing her primary challenge in Wyoming. On Tuesday, Gillibrand gave him another nudge during a brief interaction on the floor.

“I really appreciate their efforts,” Enzi told POLITICO. Asked if he will support Gillibrand, he said: “I usually don’t say that until I vote.”

Several other senators from both sides of the aisle are also keeping their cards close.

Both Sens. Debbie Stabenow and Sherrod Brown said after Tuesday’s Democratic Caucus luncheon that they’re reviewing the two approaches and weren’t sure where they’ll come down yet.

“I want to talk to commanders and enlisted men and women at home,” Brown said, noting he had also just heard from McCaskill during the lunch. “There’s no hurry on this. But I want to understand it better. I’m not a lawyer. I’ve never done prosecutions.”

Aides to Sens. Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Mark Warner of Virginia said their bosses weren’t ready to make public commitments.

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin also said he’s undecided. He added that Democratic leaders will leave the vote whipping to Gillibrand and Levin. “When our caucus is divided, we don’t do that,” Durbin said.

Among Republicans, there are at least a half-dozen senators who aren’t ready to line up with the likes of Grassley, Paul and Ted Cruz.

“Right now, I’m really in discussions with members of the military in terms of their feelings, and I’m not necessarily in support of that one,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.).

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said he is still working through the issues, including drawing on the experiences of Wyoming National Guard members he met during a recent trip to Bahrain and from his own time working with sexual assault victims as an orthopedic surgeon. “My long history is to follow the chain of command in the military,” he said. “You want to make sure this doesn’t happen again. At the same time, you want justice to be done.”