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New Delhi: NITI Aayog has proposed that after 2030, only electric vehicles should be sold in India. The think tank believes that this will expend the scope of the clean fuel technology beyond two-and three-wheelers in the country. It may be noted that a panel headed by NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant had suggested earlier that only EV (three-wheelers and two-wheelers) with engine capacity of up to 150 cc should be sold from 2025 onwards.

According to the Niti Aayog, as transport remains the most demanding sector for oil, about 100% electric vehicle sale by 2030 may reduce India’s import dependence by a big margin. A joint study by NITI Aayog and Rocky Mountain Institute, USA suggests that India can save 64% of anticipated road-based mobility-related energy demand and 37% of carbon emissions in 2030 by pursuing a shared, electric, and connected mobility future. This would result in a reduction of 156 Mtoe in Diesel and Petrol consumption for that year and net saving of roughly Rs. 3.9 Lakh Crore in 2030 at present oil prices.

A ToI report revealed that Niti Aayog has moved a Cabinet note, with different responsibility for different ministries. The road transport and highways ministry have been proposed to prepare a framework to phase out the sale of diesel and petrol vehicles by 2030. The ministry has also been asked to pilot an e-highways programme - with an overhead electricity network - to enable trucks and buses to operate as electric vehicles on select national highways.

In electric highways, overhead electric cable is laid to allow trucks to operate as electric vehicles when on the electrified road and as regular hybrid vehicles at other times. While the Niti Aayog has suggested the highways ministry to identify stretches for electric-highways, Nitin Gadkari has said India could have such a stretch with some help from Sweden. He has said that the upcoming Delhi-Mumbai expressway will be the ideal e-highway.

It may be noted that this plan comes amid intense lobbying by the automobile industry, which is against the idea of 100% electric vehicles in the country. Transport minister Nitin Gadkari, who had earlier threatened to mandate EVs from 2030, has now said that the decision will be taken after consulting the industry.

Niti Aayog's Cabinet proposal also suggests that Gadkari's ministry should issue some norms for cab aggregators to replace all diesel and petrol vehicles with EVs by 2030. Also, the heavy industries ministry would replace all diesel/ petrol vehicles with EVs of all central ministries, agencies and public sector by 2030.

Worth mentioning here is that the National Electricity Mobility Mission Plan launched in January 2013 aimed at electric/ hybrid vehicle fleet of 6-7 million by 2020. Everyday nearly 50,000 new motor vehicles (2-, 3- and 4-wheelers) register in India, with a 10% increase in vehicle registration annually for the past decade. Yet the annual share of electric vehicle sale to total vehicle sale remains at very low level of 1%, with around 4 Lakh electric two-wheelers and a few thousand electric cars on road.

As per Niti Aayog, the barriers in wider adoption of electric vehicles lie in areas of consumer perception, efficiency of batteries, driving range, speed of EVs, charging time, creation of infrastructure for charging, battery recycling and technology development. The most important component - Li-Ion battery - is very expensive in the country due to no domestic manufacturing making the price of electric cars very high.

It believes that delinking battery from vehicles through battery swapping could be a way forward, but it demands the creation of a smart infrastructure of swappable batteries with pay-per-use business models, an extensive swapping-station network, and integrated payment and tracking systems. In order to meet the target of setting up of the Giga-scale battery manufacturing, the Aayog has proposed financial incentives for the investors including cash subsidy on the basis of overall domestic value addition per kilowatt hour (KWh) basis.

According to estimates, the annual subsidy outgo would be around Rs 8,000 crore and this subsidy will be given to the manufacturers after the actual sale. The maximum cash subsidy would be for up to 20 GWh per firm and Rs 2,000 cash subsidy will be for one KWh only for 100% domestic value capture.