Behind Katie Hobbs' win: How Democrats flipped Arizona's 2nd-highest office

Dustin Gardiner | The Republic | azcentral.com

Show Caption Hide Caption Secretary of State-elect Katie Hobbs talks about plans for the office Secretary of State-elect Katie Hobbs pledges not to support any candidate or ballot measures while serving as the state's second in command.

For the first time in more than two decades, a Democrat will be a heartbeat away from the governor's seat in Arizona.

Katie Hobbs defeated Republican Steve Gaynor in the election for Arizona secretary of state — one of the most competitive races on the ballot in Arizona this year, a contest decided by a razor-thin margin of less than 1 percent.

Her victory was among the biggest on the board for Arizona Democrats, surpassed only by Kyrsten Sinema's historic win in the U.S. Senate contest.

In Arizona, the secretary of state manages the statewide elections system and is first in line to succeed Gov. Doug Ducey if he leaves office early.

Hobbs is a former social worker and state lawmaker from Phoenix. She's the current minority leader in the Arizona Senate and served as the party's ranking member on the Senate elections committee.

MORE: Katie Hobbs declares victory in Arizona secretary of state's race

Hobbs declared victory Nov. 16, after it was clear Gaynor couldn't overtake her lead. The contest was the last major undecided statewide race and hung in limbo for 11 days while ballots were tallied.

Democrats haven't held the secretary of state's office for about 23 years, since former Secretary of State Richard Mahoney left office in January 1995.

Here are five key takeaways that explain Hobbs' victory and its potential impacts on the state.

1. Hobbs borrowed from Sinema's playbook

Republicans had a clear mathematical advantage headed into the election, given they have roughly 136,000 more registered voters in Arizona.

Hobbs won because she outperformed Gaynor among independents and she persuaded some moderate Republicans, particularly women in suburbs, to cross party lines.

She did it by borrowing a page from the Sinema playbook of political moderation.

Hobbs rarely talked about her partisan affiliation on the campaign trail. Instead, she talked about restoring confidence in Arizona's elections system after a string of problems in recent years.

That bipartisan tone was on display Monday morning as Hobbs led her first news conference inside the Arizona State Capitol Executive Tower.

"This is not a win for me, it's not a win for Democrats," Hobbs said. "This is a win for all of Arizona. It's about restoring integrity and transparency to government, creating a government that works for all of us."

Her appeal to moderates was clear throughout the campaign.

Hobbs' first TV ad showed her shaking hands with Ducey during a bill signing at the Capitol and touted her work passing bipartisan bills like a law to end a backlog of untested rape kits.

Aside from an early stumble where she talked about how the office could help Democrats hold onto offices they win this year, Hobbs stayed on message.

Chuck Coughlin, a Republican consultant and CEO of HighGround Public Affairs, said Sinema and Hobbs were alike in how they avoided ideological issues and emphasized their ability to work across the political aisle.

“They both ran extremely disciplined campaigns, avoiding the progressive label," he said.

Hobbs and Sinema, a former state lawmaker, are close friends and hail from the same legislative district, a progressive bastion in central Phoenix.

Their successes are likely a model for many statewide Democratic campaigns to come.

2. Dems spent big, and money talked

Both sides shattered spending records, outspending any previous campaign for the state's No. 2 office by several million dollars.

This is one of the few races in which Democrats outspent their Republican counterparts. The Arizona Democratic Party poured at least $3.5 million into the race on her behalf.

Most of that money paid for a last-minute TV ad blitz. The party flooded voters' airwaves with ads touting Hobbs' experience as a legislator and social worker.

Gaynor, a wealthy businessman, contributed at least $2.35 million of his own fortune into the campaign. He spent most of that money defeating incumbent Secretary of State Michele Reagan in the GOP primary.

In the end, Gaynor didn't have the kind of big, out-of-state money that gave Hobbs a last-minute surge.

"In the general election, Democrats outspent our campaign two-to-one on television," said Brian Seitchik, Gaynor's campaign consultant. “In a Democrat-friendly year, her spending advantage was the difference."

Most of the money that the Arizona Democratic Party spent on Hobbs' behalf, about $3.2 million, came from iVote Fund Arizona, an affiliate of a national progressive group that's focused an election reform.

Seitchik called the organization a "hard-left group" that wants to do away with voter registration.

Ellen Kurz, founder and president of iVote, said the group invested in Hobbs' race because it's concerned that Republican secretaries of state have tried to make it harder for people to vote, particularly in states such as Arizona where there's a large minority population.

She said Hobbs' mission to make it easier for every eligible voter to cast a ballot is an "honorable goal" that Republicans should support.

“I don’t think it’s left or right to want everybody to participate in our elections," Kurz said.

"I’ve been in politics long enough to remember Republicans who thought everyone should vote, too." Kurz added. "The Republican Party has just gone so off the deep end."

3. Gaynor hampered by immigration, Trump focus

Political observers said Gaynor's campaign was likely harmed by its far-right tone on immigration and voting rights.

Gaynor drew flak from Democrats and Republicans alike when he said during the primary campaign that Arizona should stop printing ballots in Spanish — a stance he abandoned in the general election.

He repeatedly raised concerns that "illegal immigrants" could be voting, unsubstantiated claims the Reagan administration rebuked.

Gaynor also warmly embraced President Donald Trump, perhaps more so than any other statewide Republican candidate. He declared himself a "100 percent pro-Trump guy" early in the Republican primary and spoke at Trump's Oct. 19 rally in Mesa.

That label helped him defeat Reagan, a moderate Republican, during the GOP primary. But consultants said it appears to have harmed him in the general election, when Trump's brand didn't play well.

"He probably tipped the scales a little too hard in the primary," Coughlin said.

Samuel Richard, a Democratic consultant with the firm Creosote Partners, said Gaynor's defeat is an example of how more conservative candidates who touted "nationalist policies" like Trump fell flat with voters.

“I think that some of those more extreme policies were handily rejected," he said.

4. Ducey's future could be affected

Beyond the elections, Hobbs' election could complicate Ducey's political future.

Arizona doesn't have a lieutenant governor, so the first person in line to succeed the governor, if he leaves office early, is the secretary of state. Four of the past nine secretaries of state, dating to the late 1970s, have ascended after a governor resigned or was removed from office.

Gov. Jan Brewer was the last to make the leap, in 2009, after Gov. Janet Napolitano resigned to become secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

MORE: Arizona women have as much political power as ever following the election

Speculation that Ducey, a popular governor with national prominence, might not finish his first term has swirled for months. Those predictions focus on the 2020 election to fill the U.S. Senate seat that was held by the late Sen. John McCain, who died in August after a fight with brain cancer.

There's also continued speculation that Ducey could snag a cabinet-level post in Washington, D.C.

Ducey has denied he has any immediate national aspirations. In a July endorsement meeting with The Republic's editorial board, Ducey promised to fulfill his full term if he is reelected.

To the extent Ducey might still be thinking about a national role, Hobbs' win complicates that decision. Republicans might be less likely to hand the governorship to a Democrat the way Napolitano handed it to Brewer, especially given the state's increasingly purple hue.

“We’re not only one heartbeat away from the governorship but also a healthy dose of political ambition away from that," Richard said. “I think in some ways, we’ve seen this movie before."

5. Fight brewing over voting rights

Hobbs' election will immediately affect the debate over election laws and voting rights in Arizona.

That debate will likely intensify when the Arizona Legislature begins its session Jan. 14. Republicans plan to introduce bills could that limit county recorders' use of emergency voting centers and limit the timeline for "curing" mail-in ballots where a voter's signature is questioned.

Some GOP lawmakers have said that Maricopa County stretched the law.

Hobbs said she supports allowing emergency voting for people who cannot vote on Election Day, for whatever reason. She said she also supports giving recorders' time to "cure" ballots with disputed signatures.

"We will make it easier, not harder, for all eligible voters to vote," Hobbs said Monday.

"I will work to ensure sure that every eligible voter, whether you are a Republican, Democrat, independent, Libertarian or Green, that you can cast your ballot with confidence that your vote counts and your voice matters."

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