Analysis: Preview and Friday Numbers Point to $225 Million Weekend

December 19, 2015

With a jaw-dropping $120.5 million opening day safely in the bank, thoughts turn once more to the potential opening weekend for The Force Awakens. An all-time record seems virtually guaranteed, but how high could the film actually go this weekend? Is $250 million likely? $275 million?? Fortunately, we have enough data from previous blockbuster openings to have a reasonable idea of the answer. The signs point to something around $225 million, but the range of uncertainty is still quite high. Iâve based this analysis on the films that earned over $10 million from Thursday preview shows. That excludes films that were released on a Wednesday or Thursday. It also, coincidentally, excludes films that opened on holiday weekends. Note that Iâve subtracted Thursdayâs preview numbers from Fridayâs total.

Previews Friday

(excl. previews) Weekend Jurassic World $18,500,000 $64,300,000 $208,806,270 Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens $57,000,000 $63,500,000 Â The Avengers $18,700,000 $62,113,985 $207,438,708 Avengers Age of Ultron The $27,600,000 $56,824,532 $191,271,109 Furious 7 $15,800,000 $51,607,340 $147,163,560 The Dark Knight $18,500,000 $48,665,092 $158,411,483 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 $43,500,000 $47,571,119 $169,189,427 The Hunger Games $19,735,000 $47,528,650 $152,535,747 The Twilight Saga: New Moon $26,270,000 $46,433,754 $142,839,137 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $25,000,000 $45,950,136 $158,074,286 The Dark Knight Rises $30,640,000 $45,114,897 $160,887,295 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 $30,250,000 $41,392,526 $138,122,261 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 $30,400,000 $40,767,839 $141,067,634 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay â Part 1 $17,000,000 $38,139,942 $121,897,634 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 $24,000,000 $37,684,550 $125,017,372 Guardians of the Galaxy $11,200,000 $26,645,336 $94,320,883 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $13,000,000 $24,125,547 $84,617,303

The sample size is 16 excluding Star Wars, which isnât as large as one would like, but still should give us a reasonable idea of what to expect. When I bring out every analystâs favorite tool, the linear regression, these numbers line up very nicely, with R2 0.96 (the closer to 1 the better). Hereâs the formula: Opening Weekend = $850,244 + 3.01 x (Friday Gross) + 0.56 x (Thursday Previews)

If we plug Star Warsâ numbers into the formula, we get a projected opening weekend of $223,871,495. And, with R2 of .96, we can be pretty sure thatâs a fairly good estimate. But how good? Letâs look at how the formula fared with the 16 previous examples:

Predicted

Weekend Actual

Weekend Actual vs.

Prediction Jurassic World $204,627,356 $208,806,270 +2.04% The Avengers $198,165,669 $207,438,708 +4.68% Avengers Age of Ultron The $187,263,144 $191,271,109 +2.14% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 $168,375,896 $169,189,427 +0.48% The Dark Knight Rises $153,757,456 $160,887,295 +4.64% The Dark Knight $157,607,413 $158,411,483 +0.51% The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $153,097,738 $158,074,286 +3.25% The Hunger Games $154,884,200 $152,535,747 -1.52% The Twilight Saga: New Moon $155,266,326 $142,839,137 -8.00% The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 $140,549,285 $141,067,634 +0.37% The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 $142,343,599 $138,122,261 -2.97% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 $127,677,730 $125,017,372 -2.08% The Hunger Games: Mockingjay â Part 1 $125,110,892 $121,897,634 -2.57% Furious 7 $164,937,526 $147,163,560 -10.78% The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $80,715,076 $84,617,303 +4.83% Guardians of the Galaxy $87,280,803 $94,320,883 +8.07%

In general, the predicted numbers line up very closely with the actuals, with most being within a few percent. I fact, I would go so far as to say that The Force Awakens will probably open within 5% of $223.9 million, or somewhere between $213,210,948 and $235,065,070. With 13 of the 16 previous films having opened within 5% of their predicted number, one could boldly predict that thereâs an 80% chance itâll fall between those numbers. Playing with statistics is a dangerous game though. Being a little more cautious, I would note that Furious 7 fell more than 10% short of its predicted opening, and Guardians of the Galaxy exceeded its prediction by over 8%. If we use those numbers as markers, thereâs about a 90% chance that Star Warsâ opening weekend will fall between $207,161,798 and $250,910,010. Yep, thereâs still a small chance that we wonât see the all-time record broken this weekend. For evidence of that, note that Star Wars did less during Friday itself than Jurassic World. I think itâs unlikely itâll fall that far short of current expectationsâperhaps a 5% chance. However, I also think itâs equally unlikely to top $250 million, based on what weâve seen so far. With everything taken into consideration, my bet would be on a weekend of $225 million, plus or minus $10 million. Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Filed under: Analysis, Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens, Star Wars