The New South Wales premier, herself the daughter of immigrants, wants state’s migrant intake halved

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Gladys Berejiklian has become the latest politician to weigh into Australia’s population debate, calling for a return to “Howard-era immigration levels”.

On Wednesday the New South Wales premier, herself the daughter of Armenian immigrants, called for a halving of the state’s migrant intake, citing concerns about population growth in Sydney.

But a Guardian analysis of immigration data shows any reduction in migration in Australia would involve hard and potentially costly choices for the state’s economy.

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While permanent arrivals in Australia are at the same level as they were under the Howard government, the increase in net overseas migrants has been driven by the lucrative international student market, tourists and skilled workers.

On Wednesday in an interview with the Daily Telegraph Berejiklian said immigration in NSW had been allowed to “balloon out of control”.

“It’s time to tap the brakes and take a breather on immigration levels to this state. We should return to Howard-era immigration levels in NSW,” she said.

“I’m the daughter of proud immigrants myself, but it’s clear that successive federal governments have allowed the rate of immigration to NSW to balloon out of control.”

But an analysis of migration figures by Guardian Australia shows that while net overseas migration has grown in NSW, the bulk of the increase has come from international students who inject billions of dollars into the state’s economy.

And permanent migration figures are on par with the end of the Howard era – after almost doubling during his 11 years in power, a point the prime minister, Scott Morrison, made on Wednesday.

“In the current planning year, NSW had requested more than 5000 additional migrants into NSW, well I’ll take it from those comments by Gladys that she would like now those assigned to states like South Australia or other places, and we can do that,” Morrison said on Wednesday.

“But our current permanent immigration levels are running just a little over 160,000 – that was the level of permanent immigration that was running at the time of the conclusion of the Howard government, and so those levels have been pretty consistent for some time, they used to be a bit higher than that in terms of what the permanent intake had been a few years ago and that’s come down somewhat over the last year or so and I expect it to sort of remain at about these levels.”

Similarly the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, suggested issues of perceived overcrowding in Sydney related to infrastructure.

“What I would say to Gladys Berejiklian is we stand ready to work with you to invest in the necessary infrastructure to ensure that this great state of NSW has the right services and the right infrastructure to support the population that it has,” Frydenberg told reporters in Sydney.

“The number of permanent visas have come down quite significantly, we are a very proud migrant nation.”

According to government statistics permanent migration to Australia almost doubled during the Howard era, from 85,802 in 1996-97 to 161,217 in 2006-07. In 2016-17 the permanent migrant intake was 183,608, mostly via skilled visas.

But that figure was set to fall to about 160,000 in 2017-18 because of changes to the visa migration program made by Peter Dutton in 2015.

In 2016-17 net overseas migration to NSW was 104,480, up from 73,570 in 2006-07.

But that growth has been driven in large part by the increased reliance by universities on revenue from international students and by tourists and skilled workers.

In 2016-17 those three categories accounted for 59% of temporary visa holders in NSW. Since 2006-07 there has been a 92% increase in the number of people in NSW on international student visas.

Universities Australia chief executive Catriona Jackson urged policymakers “to tread carefully to ensure any policy change does not damage Australia’s successful international education sector which is a major income-earner for our economy.

“International education is the second biggest export in NSW, injecting $11.2bn into the NSW economy each year and supporting more than 46,000 jobs.



“It’s a hugely important income earner – bigger than tourism – and international students also make a huge cultural and social contribution to the state and Australia.”

In a statement Berejiklian confirmed that the government wanted to halve net overseas migration, but her office did not specify where they wanted to see the cuts come from.

The premier instead wants the level of migration to be considered at a COAG meeting.

The comments come during a difficult period for the premier and the Liberal government in NSW.

The week has been dominated by negative headlines and protests against her support for a controversial advertisement for a horse race on the Sydney Opera House, and recent polling suggests the Labor opposition is now neck-and-neck with the government.

Berejiklian was critical of Labor leader Luke Foley earlier this year after he used the term “white flight” to describe the shifting demographics in western Sydney during an interview.

At the time she described the comments as “deeply divisive, dangerous and nasty”.

But on Wednesday Berejiklian said Sydney had been forced to “wear the pain” of increased migration, blaming previous infrastructure spending in Sydney for not keeping pace with population growth.

“My government has been playing catch-ups building the schools, hospitals, roads and transport links our state needs to deal with our growing population after years of do-nothing Labor governments,” she said.

“But it’s becoming increasingly clear that the current growing rate of immigration to our state needs to be ­addressed. This is an opportunity for a new dawn on this important issue.”

The Coalition has been in government in NSW since April 2011.