Jonathan Ellis | Argus Leader

Michael Klinski, mklinski@argusleader.com

Argus Leader

Rep. Kristi Noem has opened a narrow lead against state Sen. Billie Sutton in her bid to win the South Dakota governor’s race in next Tuesday’s election, according to the results of an Argus Leader-KELO-TV poll.

Noem leads Sutton 47 percent to 44 percent. The 3 percentage-point difference is within the poll’s 4.5 percentage-point margin of error, meaning the race is still up for grabs.

The poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy was conducted between Oct. 29 and Oct. 31 with 500 likely voters and weighted geographically to reflect voter turnout by county. Telephone interviews were conducted using both land and cell lines.

"We're excited about the direction the campaign is headed," Noem said in a statement. "We know the momentum is building, but it's going to be a close race. I would just encourage everyone to get out and vote."

"This race is still neck-and-neck," Sutton said in a statement. "As we say in the chutes, let ‘er buck. Taking on the status quo isn’t easy, but Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are rallying behind me because they know they are betting on a fighter who will clean up state government and build a stronger South Dakota."

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Noem’s support increased slightly since an earlier Argus Leader-KELO poll conducted between Oct. 18 and Oct. 22. In that survey, Noem and Sutton were tied at 45 percent to 45 percent. Since that earlier poll, both campaigns have launched a flurry of negative ads, with Noem’s campaign trying to link Sutton to unpopular Democratic leaders Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders while Sutton’s campaign has portrayed Noem as a career politician and Washington insider.

Emily Wanless, a political science professor at Augustana University, said the numbers aren’t surprising given the state’s background. Sutton dominated the early weeks with an advertising campaign that emphasized him as a “great guy” and not a “scary Democrat.”

The second poll captures the Noem campaign’s attempt to define him as a typical, liberal Democrat, Wanless said.

“I would imagine nationalizing of the race (tying Billie to Hillary & Bernie) was a good strategy in such a pro-Trump/Anti-Hillary state,” Wanless said in an email. “Nationalizing it makes it less about Billie the good guy or Billie the moderate willing to work with Republicans in Pierre, and more about Billie the DEMOCRAT.

“Long way of saying that Sutton wasn't known all that well by voters,” she added. “And now he is. And what he's been painted as is enough to scare moderate voters back to the Right/Republicans.”

Taxes have also been an issue: The Noem campaign has accused Sutton of supporting Democratic goals of instituting a state income tax – accusations he’s vehemently denied – while Sutton’s campaign accuses Noem of supporting legislation as a state lawmaker that increased property taxes on farmers.

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Fewer voters view Sutton favorably

The numbers suggest that the ads are having an effect on the race. In the earlier poll, 50 percent of voters had a favorable opinion about Sutton while 24 percent recognized him unfavorably. The latest poll shows his favorable at 44 percent and his unfavorable at 32 percent.

Noem’s favorable rating increased 2 points from 44 percent to 46 percent while her unfavorable rating also increased 2 percentage points from 35 percent to 37 percent.

For both campaigns, a crucial 8 percent of those surveyed were still undecided.

President Donald Trump is a stark divide for the two campaigns. While 57 percent of all voters approved of the president’s performance, only 19 percent of Sutton’s supporters approved while 75 percent disapproved. Of Noem’s supporters, 94 percent approved Trump’s performance while 3 percent disapproved.

Meanwhile, 84 percent of Noem’s supporters wanted their vote to support Trump’s direction in leading the nation while 56 percent of Sutton’s supporters wanted their vote to change the direction Trump is leading the country.