Notre Dame is on the outside looking in when it comes to most preseason projections for the College Football Playoff. Those projections may be misguided, according to Phil Steele’s College Football Preview Magazine via ESPN.

When it comes to Notre Dame and the push for a return trip to fight for a national title after a five-year absence, the Fighting Irish check in as the No. 1 candidate for a “surprise” trip to the Final Four.

“In 2017, I pegged the Irish as my No. 1 most improved team and they delivered by rising from 4-8 to 10-3,” Steele writes. “One of those losses was a one-point heartbreaker to Georgia at home. My power ratings project an even better year this season for Notre Dame, which would put the team in serious playoff contention. The Irish are experienced at head coach, with ninth-year man Brian Kelly, and at quarterback, where Brandon Wimbush is a returning starter and backup Ian Book threw the game-winning TD pass in the Citrus Bowl defeat of LSU.”

Notre Dame climbed as high as No. 3 last year, and begin the year as 15th in the 247Sports Summer Top 25 rankings. The attention nationally falls upon the Notre Dame quarterback spot and the prestige that comes with it, but there are other factors at play.

“Overall, 15 starters return, including nine from a defense that ranks no lower than No. 21 on my three defensive top individual units,” Steele writes. “Even with the graduations of Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey, the offensive line is stocked with talent and will be stout. Finally, the Irish play only four true road games. Two of the toughest of those trips will be at Virginia Tech, which will be very young on defense, and at USC, which could struggle to effectively replace quarterback Sam Darnold. It won't take long to get a read on the 2018 Fighting Irish, who host Jim Harbaugh and Michigan in an opening-week revival of a rivalry that has been dormant the past three seasons.”

If Notre Dame wants to impress the selection committee, it starts immediately when Michigan visits for the season opener. At Virginia Tech and home against Florida State will be challenging must-wins in the ACC portion of the schedule with Stanford, USC and Northwestern as other top-billed battles.

How much should Notre Dame fans buy into the “surprise” label from Steele? For context, his surprise pick last season was Florida, which tanked and fired its coach after mass suspensions and an ugly start. But the second spot went to Miami. The Hurricanes ripped off 10-straight wins to begin the season, including a frustrating one for Notre Dame fans via 41-8 blowout.

The Fighting Irish last competed at a national-title level in 2012 when Kelly led Notre Dame to a 12-1 season and loss to Alabama in the BCS Championship. Notre Dame has been 41-23 since the 2012 season.