The Turnbull government’s plan to reduce the amount of environmental water recovered each year in the northern basin of the Murray-Darling river by 70 gigalitres will likely be blocked by the Senate after Labor announced this morning it would vote with the Greens to disallow changes to the plan.

The Labor caucus met this morning and expressed support for the views of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, which warned that the cut to the environmental water recovery target was not supported by the science on the river’s health.

The Nick Xenophon Team is “highly likely” to also support the disallowance, a spokeswoman said, but has left open the door for discussions. This gives the numbers to disallow the 70GL cut.

The move in the Senate comes amid growing concern among scientists about the future of the Murray-Darling and disagreement between state governments over the key elements of the plan.

The disallowance could trigger a major dispute between the states and prompted New South Wales to warn it would consider pulling out of the plan entirely.

“This now puts NSW in a position where we have to consider our ongoing participation in the plan and its ability to deliver economic, social and environmental outcomes throughout the basin,” the NSW agriculture minister, Niall Blair, said.

The federal water minister, David Littleproud also warned there was “a risk that this whole thing could blow up.”

“We could end up getting less than the 3,200 gigalitres [the current water recovery target] under the plan,” he said.

The proposed reduction of 70GL – equivalent to 28,000 Olympic swimming pools – was backed by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, which conducted consultations last year.



In November it proposed a reduction to the water recovery target in the north of the basin (mainly in Queensland and north-west NSW) from 390GL to 320GL. Farming communities in Queensland and north-west NSW had warned that they would suffer economic hardship if the higher water recovery targets were maintained.

But the amendment was opposed by the Wentworth Group of Scientists and by farmers down river.



In an advice in January, the Wentworth group warned the cut of 70GL would undermine the objectives of the basin plan and was inconsistent with the Commonwealth Water Act, which called on the authority to act “on the basis of the best available scientific knowledge and socioeconomic analysis”.

It said the amendment would not adequately protect important flow events (such as environmental flows or low flows) from being diverted by irrigators. It pointed to issues with current plans that allowed large legal diversions in some valleys and also pointed out that states had failed to deal with allegations of water theft.

The Wentworth Group called on the federal government to look at ways to mitigate economic impacts on communities, rather than lowering environmental standards.

The shadow environment minister, Tony Burke, said Labor was not saying it would never support an amendment to the basin plan.

“In supporting this disallowance, it is not our position there could never be an amendment to the basin plan,’ he said. “We will be putting criteria to the government.”

He said there had not been proper consultation with traditional owners along the river.

The NXT senator Rex Patrick and the member for Mayo, Rebekha Sharkie, are calling on federal and state governments to put the brakes on rolling out the next phase of the “leaky” Murray-Darling basin plan.

“While NXT supports the Murray-Darling basin plan being implemented in full, confidence in that implementation has been eroded over the past 12 months,” Patrick said.

“When you combine recent allegations of water theft, a complaint about lack of transparency, concerns about high water buyback prices, a refusal to commit to a federal royal commission and the fact that remedies in other inquiries have not been fully implemented, things need to change before moving forward.”

He said he wanted the changes, including the changes to the Southern Basin plan, which would deliver 450GL of additional environmental water to South Australia, treated as a package. But the disallowance has angered NSW.

“Not once have the ALP or Greens raised an issue or concern about the findings of the northern basin review or the process followed – yet here they are in the lead-up to the SA election claiming that more work needs to be done,” Blair said.

“This is politics over policy by Tony Burke and it is putting the delivery of the basin plan at risk.”