Tea Party '07 snapshot - December 16, 2007

This is a snapshot of December 16th donations at 11:59pm.

live tracking here Moving Avg1 Since Oct 1 Today Last 24 Hours Last Hour Right Now! Cash Collected —4 $17.91M $5922.58K $329.72K — $5.922M 5 Minutely Hourly Daily Weekly Monthly Cashflow $0.495K /min $29.67K /hr $712.2K /day $5M /wk $21M /mo $0.161K /min $9.68K /hr $232.4K /day $2M /wk $7M /mo $4.124K /min $6.67K /min $5.946K /min $4.124K /min $247.46K /hr $400.2K /hr $356.79K /hr $247.46K /hr /day 5 $5.9M /day 5 $9.6M /day 5 $8.6M /day 5 $5.9M $42M /wk $67M /wk $60M /wk $42M /wk $178M /mo $288M /mo $257M /mo $178M /mo Daily Cashflow $712.2K /day $232.4K /day $5.9M /day $9.6M /day $8.6M /day $5.9M /day Total Donors —4 200648 57668 4259 — 57668 Donor Rate 294 ppl/hr 109 ppl/hr 2409 ppl/hr 5169 ppl/hr 4967 ppl/hr 2409 ppl/hr Donation size $101 /person $89 /person $103 /person $77 /person $72 /person $103 /person Projection for today the week 14 days the month $18.62M 2 $22.89M 2 $27.88M 2 $28.59M 2 $18.14M $19.53M $21.16M $21.39M $23.85M $27.52M $48.75M $23.85M $59.49M $85.15M $233.72M $59.49M $101.06M $152.38M $449.51M $101.06M $106.99M $161.98M $480.32M $106.99M Q4 Projection $28.59M2 $21.39M $106.99M $161.98M $480.32M $106.99M Check the official Ron Paul press release for absolutely exact numbers.

Donations Collected, in $1000 Donation Rate3, in $1000 per hour Number of People Donating Per Hour Donation Size, in $

Notes: These projections use a continuous exponential moving average with a half-life of 3 days. This is more appropriate than using OLS, since the donation data does not seem to satisfy the assumptions of the Gauss-Markov Thm (The best would probably be an exponential ARMA model, but I'm not sure people won't look at me funny if I do that).

The Exponential Moving Average is the best Q4 prediction method for various mathy reasons.

The points on the rate graphs are smoothed to a normal curve with a standard deviation of 15 minutes.

Moving Average totals are at best meaningless, and at worst misleading here, since we know both the exact value and the general trend (donations will always increase). Thus all a moving average of a total would do is lag behind, and why it is omitted here.

This number does not include offline donations, of which there were $402,000

This is a snaphot of the Tea Party '07 moneybomb.

Data gathered from Ron Paul's donation feed, the same one that feeds the flash donation tracker to the left.

Who made this? I'm Leo, but google may know me as generic shell. I had some spare time on my hands, hence this tracker.

Contact me via email. This page bears no official relation to the Ron Paul campaign, nor is it in any financial way supported by it. I just thought I'd put up some donation graphs.