WASHINGTON — Two years ago, President Obama popped a surprise into his State of the Union address: His administration would double American exports in five years, helping to create two million jobs.

The bold promise sent the eyebrows of economists and policy experts upward, even as they applauded its intent.

“How will he perform this miracle?” Leslie H. Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, asked at the time. “It really is a mystery.”

Two years later, the administration is on track — for now — to meet its ambitious goal. Growing exports have been one of the central drivers of the recovery, accounting for about half the nation’s economic growth since the recession ended. Economists say the administration deserves credit for some of the gains. It has pressured China to increase the value of its currency and open its markets to American businesses. It has worked closely with American companies looking to sell goods and services throughout the world.