Team Trump on taxes and trade Presented by U.S. Bank

TEAM TRUMP ON TAXES AND TRADE — In our conversation in Cleveland on Wednesday, informal Donald Trump advisers Larry Kudlow and Steve Moore promised that they would soon deliver a revision of Trump’s tax plan that would reduce its cost from $10 trillion to $3 trillion over ten years. Still a big number but much closer to what other Republicans including House Speaker Paul Ryan are considering. More on that: http://goo.gl/KSsESb

Moore also agreed that the Trump campaign missed an opportunity on Tuesday night to actually talk about the economy on “Make America Work” night: “If Donald Trump talked about nothing besides the economy and jobs for the next three months, he would win the election because that’s where he clearly has the upper hand and every poll shows that.”

Moore also said he was confident he and Kudlow could help nudge Trump away from his protectionist trade policies: "My only point is that I think we're moving him a little bit more in a free and fair trade direction.” Moore noted that Trump has largely stopped talking about big tariffs on Chinese goods.

Kudlow added: "I think Mr. Trump does not want to see a wall of tariffs. He's actually pushed that rhetoric aside in recent months. More: https://goo.gl/8a1xvG

Reuters Breaking Views’ Rob Cox cited our panel to argue that “voters prefer Trump on economic matters but he is struggling on substance.” https://goo.gl/ddKURW

FIRST LOOK: LEW ON DODD-FRANK — From a statement going out Wednesday a.m. from Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on the six year anniversary of Dodd-Frank: “Six years later, we can say without question that Wall Street Reform has made our financial system safer and sounder. Banks have added more than $700 billion in additional capital to help strengthen their balance sheets. The vast derivatives market has been pulled out of the shadows, with requirements that standardized derivatives be centrally cleared and traded transparently.

“The [CFPB], which marks its five-year anniversary this year, has put in place new safeguards for consumers, and provided over $11 billion in relief for more than 27 million hardworking Americans. And the [FSOC] has closed regulatory gaps exposed by the crisis, with regulators now working collaboratively and transparently to better identify and respond to potential threats to the financial system”

BIG TRUMP PLAN WINNERS? THE TRUMPS — Via Third Way report out Thursday morning on Trump’s estate tax winners: “Big winners? The Trump family dynasty, who would see a $7.1 billion windfall. That’s just through his proposed elimination of the federal estate tax — not counting breaks on capital gains and income that would, altogether, increase the national debt by $9.5 trillion in just 10 years” http://bit.ly/29OJcFE

GOP NIGHT THREE — Ted Cruz entered the arena to raucous cheers. But as it became increasingly clear that he would not endorse Donald Trump — and even told people to “vote their conscience” in the fall — boos began to rain down on him, led by the New York delegation. Before he finished, Trump himself emerged into the family box, clearly in an effort to steal Cruz’s thunder. A remarkable moment of disunity at a convention meant to bring the GOP together. Cruz’s wife Heidi needed to be escorted out as Trump supporters screamed at her, some loudly invoking her employment at Goldman Sachs. These people seem unaware that Trump wants a former Goldman banker, Steve Mnuchin, as Treasury Secretary.

Newt Gingrich tried to clean things up, arguing that those who support Cruz’s views of the Constitution and conservative governance could only vote Trump in good conscience. Still, the image of the second-place finisher refusing to endorse the first-place finisher and getting booed off stage will be one of the indelible moments of this convention. So far what people will remember: Melania Trump cribbing from Michelle Obama and the Cruz moment. Perhaps Trump will blow that all away Thursday night but it will be tough.

TWEET REACT — @HillaryClinton: “Vote your conscience.”

WELCOME TO 2020 — POLITICO’s Shane Goldmacher: “The Texas senator, who is widely believed to already be planning to run for president again in 2020, paused dramatically toward the end of his speech as the delegates shouted for him to endorse Trump … It was a shocking rebuke coming from the same stage where Trump had become the nominee only 24 hours earlier and where he will address the nation on Thursday” http://goo.gl/XNjxOe

TRUMP: TURKEY PURGE NO BIG DEAL — NYT’s David E. Sanger and Maggie Haberman: “Trump, on the eve of accepting the Republican nomination for president, said Wednesday that if he were elected, he would not pressure Turkey or other authoritarian allies about conducting purges of their political adversaries or cracking down on civil liberties. The United States, he said, has to ‘fix our own mess” before trying to alter the behavior of other nations.’” http://goo.gl/cUq7dC

FIRST LOOK: NEW CORPRORATE GOV PRINCIPLES — Per release: “A group of executives from leading investment managers, corporations and other organizations issued a report early this morning on commonsense corporate governance principles for America’s public companies. Members of the working group included Warren Buffett, Larry Fink (BlackRock), Mary Barra (General Motors), Jeff Ubben (ValueAct), Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase), Brian Rogers (T. Rowe Price), and others. http://goo.gl/Bl94oF

GOOD THURDAY MORNING — Tonight’s the big night for The Donald. Email me your reactions after his speech to [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Colin Wilhelm on what Senate Democrats say about small-dollar-loan rules — and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. — please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or [email protected].

DRIVING THE DAY — It’s “Make America Whole Again” night in Cleveland as Trump formally accepts the GOP nomination … Treasury Secretary Jack Lew “will meet with his international counterparts in Athens, Greece to discuss progress in Greece’s reform implementation.” In the evening, Lew departs for the G-20 meeting in Chengdu, China … Existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. … Existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. expected to dip to 5.48M from 5.53M … Index of Leading Economic Indicators at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise 0.2 percent.

TRUMP WOOS BILLIONAIRES — POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt and Kenneth P. Vogel: “Trump spent the primary bashing major donors and super PACs, but his campaign aggressively jumped into the big money chase on Wednesday afternoon, unofficially blessing a favored super PAC at a meeting of about 20 big donors at the Ritz-Carlton hotel near the GOP convention site. …

“Paul Manafort, Trump's top strategist, called into the pitch session for Rebuilding America Now PAC, a group devoted to electing Trump, while Marty Obst, Mike Pence's director of operations, also attended” http://goo.gl/4OpWWt

FIRST LOOK: WHAT IF DODD-FRANK NEVER HAPPENED? — American Action Forum has a new analysis on “how much better off we would be and how many better place we would have gone if Dodd-Frank had never come into existence” https://goo.gl/PFCeWc

HSBC EXECS CHARGED — WSJ’s Christopher Matthews: “When a top executive at HSBC Holdings PLC was told a client had approved a huge currency exchange that stood to enrich the bank by millions, federal prosecutors say he couldn’t believe his luck. ‘Ohhhh, f — ing Christmas,’ replied Mark Johnson, the bank’s global head of foreign-exchange cash trading, according to a transcript of a call recorded in 2011. Now, his luck has turned.

“The details of the call were spelled out in a criminal complaint unsealed by federal prosecutors in Brooklyn on Wednesday, hours after Mr. Johnson was arrested by federal agents at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. Prosecutors charged Mr. Johnson and a colleague, Stuart Scott, the former HSBC European head of currency trading, of fraudulently front-running a $3.5 billion currency trade for a client, in a deal that netted millions in profits for the bank” http://goo.gl/QLFyGp

A message from U.S. Bank Banks must do more and better to reverse systemic inequality. At U.S. Bank, that starts by committing $116 million to address social and economic inequities and elevating Black voices and Black-owned businesses. Because we’re small enough to care – and big enough to make a difference. Learn more.

THINGS COULD GET AWKWARD FOR THIEL — NYT’s Farhad Manjoo: “When the technology investor Peter Thiel takes the stage just before … Trump at the Republican convention this week, he will become the most prominent public face of a species so endangered it might as well be called extinct: the Silicon Valley Trump supporter. Nobody knows what Mr. Thiel, a co-founder of PayPal, will say (he declined an interview), but in the tech industry, his appearance at the convention is being greeted with more apprehension than excitement” http://goo.gl/f8PPhv

MERKEL OFFERS MORE TIME FOR BREXIT — FT’s George Parker in London and Guy Chazan in Berlin: “Angela Merkel, German chancellor, has offered Theresa May some breathing space in preparing her negotiating stance for Brexit, telling the British prime minister to take her time but adding: ‘Nobody wants things to be up in the air.’ Ms Merkel cut a conciliatory tone in talks about Brexit with Mrs May in Berlin, as the new UK premier made her first overseas visit since arriving in 10 Downing Street last week.

“Ms Merkel said: ‘It is to our advantage to have the UK define its negotiating stance in great detail and clarity.’ She added: ‘To have a good negotiating process and a sensible and constructive one is in all of our interests’. The German chancellor is resisting pressure from some EU leaders, including Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, to press Mrs May into launching the Article 50 divorce clause quickly” http://goo.gl/lQaEus

ASIA HITS NINE-MONTH HIGHS — Reuters: “Asian stocks climbed to nine-month highs on Thursday, helped by a pickup in capital inflows and a recovery in global oil prices, while the dollar stood strong on growing bets of a U.S. rate increase as early as September. … Portfolio inflows to emerging market assets rose to the highest level in nearly three years last week, according to the latest survey by the Institute of International Finance.

“Tempering risk appetite, however, was Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan who declared a state of emergency on Wednesday as he widened a crackdown against thousands of members of the security forces, judiciary, civil service and academia after a failed coup. Bond and stock markets in Malaysia were relatively unruffled after news that the U.S. Justice Department filed lawsuits linked to scandal-ridden state fund 1MDB with the currency hugging well worn ranges” http://goo.gl/aJ3ciy

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR —

FIRST LOOK — Per release, on Wednesday morning “Wells Fargo and Amazon will be announcing a new agreement that extends private student loan discounts to Amazon Prime Student customers” http://goo.gl/ObSXSP

SHOULD WE DO A TRANSACTIONS TAX? — Michael Bright, director at the Milken Institute’s Center for Financial Markets: “The idea of using some form of a transaction tax on financial speculation in order to help pay for things like roads and bridges certainly has political appeal. So much so that the Democrats recently included it in their draft Party platform. But transaction taxes can be complex, and estimating their impact — both financial and social — can be difficult.

“And they should be structured so that institutional speculators, not retail investors, bear the cost. Massive structural changes have taken place in the securities trading market over the past several years, giving rise to this debate. … When people say ‘trading’ you might think of Goldman Sachs or J.P. Morgan. But it turns out that only 2 of the top 10 sources of securities trading today are banks” http://goo.gl/9kCebN

CLINTON SUPER PAC SPENDS BIG — POLITICO’s Isaac Arnsdorf: “The main super PAC supporting Hillary Clinton dove into general-election mode last month, spending almost as much in June as in the three preceding months combined. Priorities USA Action spent $23.7 million in June, mostly on ads savaging …

“Trump, according to its latest [FEC] report released on Wednesday. The group also raised another $11.9 million, topping $100 million for the cycle so far and ending the month with $40.2 million cash on hand” http://goo.gl/tawn9z

MORE CAMPAIGN FINANCE NEWS — “Hillary Clinton campaign's posted another impressive fundraising month in June but blew through almost the entire haul, spending more than in any other month of the cycle so far. The campaign spent $34.5 million and raised $36.4 million, leaving it with a slightly higher cash position of $44.4 million at the end of June” http://goo.gl/mPRKZk

“The Trump campaign dramatically improved its financial position in June, ending the month with $20.2 million cash on hand. The latest campaign finance report … must be a huge relief to Republicans after the prior month's dismal $1.3 million cash position sparked widespread panic and dismay. … Trump almost caught up to where the Mitt Romney campaign was four years ago, with $22.5 million on hand at the end of June 2012”

TRUMP TO PURGE OBAMA APPOINTEES? — Reuters: “If he wins the presidency, … Trump would seek to purge the federal government of officials appointed by Democratic President Barack Obama and could ask Congress to pass legislation making it easier to fire public workers, Trump ally, Chris Christie, said on Tuesday. Christie, who is governor of New Jersey and leads Trump's White House transition team, said the campaign was drawing up a list of federal government employees to fire if Trump defeats Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the Nov. 8 presidential election.

“Trump's transition advisers fear that Obama may convert these appointees to civil servants, who have more job security than officials who have been politically appointed. This would allow officials to keep their jobs in a new, possibly Republican, administration, Christie said” http://goo.gl/Ce0dgx

US GOES AFTER SWANK REAL ESTATE — Bloomberg’s Max Abelson on the all the plush US real estate investigators are chasing after the huge scandal with Malaysia's Goldman Sachs-related 1MDB fund. http://goo.gl/IpjWIX

NEW OFR MONEY MARKET TOOL — WSJ’s Ryan Tracy: “The public will be able to track the monthly holdings of U.S. money-market funds more easily with a new online tool released Wednesday by the U.S. Office of Financial Research. The tool harnesses information the funds already file with the [SEC] but gathers the data from individual funds all in one place and makes it searchable” https://goo.gl/6hftrB

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