Inevitability

About a day ago, according to ABC News, South Korean president Jae-in Moon proposed three-way talks with North Korea and America. As always, when North Korea comes up, talk amongst those in even the smallest friendship circles devolves into how inhumane the Kim regime is, and how we could deliver a “Bloody Nose” strike, as described by Al Jazeera. This ludicrous idea (which is a ludicrous idea) is instantly repelled by nuclear weapons experts like Van Jackson, who published his thoughts in Politico as far back as January, 2018; you know, months before President Trump’s world-shocking offer of talks that Republicans chillin’ out on Fox News were enraged President Obama might welcome.

I am NOT a nuclear strategist. I may write fantasy worlds where political beliefs sometimes drive heroes to overcome threats, and I certainly spend more than my share of time pondering over maps, publicly-available resources, and assessments like the ones provided by Van Jackson and Retired Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, speaking for CNBC. I’m just a well-read guy with an understanding of history (Thanks, college debt!), and what I present to you now is a bullet-point, civilian-grade explanation of exactly why it is a farcical notion that the United States could “Bloody Nose” any country with nuclear weaponry, specifically North Korea — and that we’d better know this because the people on the other side of the table already do.

Even better is the “Decapitation Strike,” as South Korea has reportedly prepared for as an option according to the New York Times — or, perhaps, as we’ll execute any day now according to The Telegraph. The idea that we could, if the opportunity struck, eliminate Kim Jong Un, his inner circle, and his top leaders sounds appealing if you forget for a minute that actions have consequences and retaliation against the city of Seoul is all but inevitable, as Stratfor (ahhh, strange bedfellows) explains. Would cutting off the head instantly slay the beast, or would it’s claws only tighten?

The Problem At Large.

Very simply, there are literally hundreds of ‘moving parts’ to these fantasies. Where is the artillery? Where are the leaders? Where are the nukes? Our intelligence on North Korea is likely substantial, but it’s not perfect. We would need to know exactly who to kill, where they are, and how to get to them — and that is asking a lot even in the 21st century with radio, submersibles and GPS.

The idea is to achieve victory, but there are many possibilities that constitute defeat.

Without Further Ado...

— We cannot possibly execute such a strike on a meager whim. I wouldn't say it's impossible to execute a decapitation strike on a highly-centralized regime, but to do so successfully requires massive coordination on a level which, A, the present administration has proven completely and totally incapable of executing, but, B, relies significantly on assets INSIDE of North Korea.



- We would need to know where Kim and every loyal successor/underling is.

- We would need the ability to kill them without even five minutes notice. All it takes is a single cell phone call to a single field general and Seoul is doomed. That's millions of people. That constitutes defeat.

- We would absolutely, as-a-must be able to identify and destroy (not simply damage) every single nuclear weapon in their possession and be able to do so WITHOUT triggering them. A single surface nuclear explosion and millions of people will die. That constitutes defeat. (If North Korea is even remotely intelligent there are at least two nuclear devices buried in the country's territory, at least one being in Pyongyang city; if either of them goes off, we're screwed)

- We would need to convince or coerce every significant North Korean general, and in fact every single one of significant rank along the DMZ. The remainder would have to be killed in the initial strike. If even one bombardment were launched at Seoul, tens of thousands could die. That constitutes defeat.



- We would have to anticipate and repel any other North Korean response. If we failed to immediately assert control over the entirety of North Korea (or arrange with China to cede areas of control to them), we would face a prolonged guerrilla war which would lead to tens of thousands of people dying and a Vietnam-grade quagmire. That constitutes defeat.



- We would have to prepare and deliver enough economic strength to care for over 25,000,000 people, many of whom are poor and illiterate and distrustful of their would-be liberators, and we have to do so without a massive famine. That constitutes defeat.

- ON TOP OF THIS, we would have to have some sort of secret security arrangements in place with Russia, China, India, Pakistan South Korea, and Japan, just to consider significant regional powers who would be interested, to say nothing of the need for a global consensus on action the likes of which hasn't existed since the Afghanistan war, and we would need to have this in place either before or immediately after an act of aggression. If this did not exist, a secondary economic or military war could break out, which would likely cost thousands if not millions of lives. This arrangement would have to exist PRIOR TO any attack, but be so thoroughly secret that not even a peep got out to prepare the Kim regime, or else they could attack first and, again, kill millions. That constitutes defeat.

Historical Precedent



So what you're talking, when you hear someone discuss a “Bloody nose” or “decapitation strike” is essentially impossible under the absolute best military and political leadership history has ever seen. I'm talking a need for the kind of relationships FDR and Churchill had (NONE of which exist today) being in place before the war, and the kind of military coordination, skill, and pure unbridled luck left to the likes of Alexander the Great and Belisarius. I don't think I would trust even this mythological-grade combination unless there was an imminent threat that needed to be countered. I don't even think a mind like Justinian's could pull this off, and he’s the ‘Greek’ Emperor who reclaimed, however briefly, Rome and restructured his empire’s legal code and rebuild Constantinople following a massive riot and, oh yeah, he survived the Black Death.



And no American administration since Truman — perhaps Kennedy's - came even CLOSE to this level of skill, and Kennedy's administration quite literally saved the world from a surprisingly less -dangerous nuclear predicament than what’s proposed, here.

It’s time to stop pretending North Korea has a military outcome that benefits anyone currently living. It doesn’t. Even the political slaves we’d seek to free from North Korea’s concentration camps would be dead of starvation and radiation poisoning.

Jesse Pohlman is a History and English educator and writer from Long Island, New York. You can find some of his fantasy worlds at his Amazon Author’s Page.