As the northeast monsoon establishes a winter season across South Asia, the cyclone risk for Sri Lanka increases. Tropical Cyclone Ockhi formed to the south of the island at the start of the week and gained sufficient strength to bring down trees in the capital, Colombo.

Some 55,000 people were reportedly affected by the bad weather while over 3,000 people have been displaced. According to the island nation’s Disaster Management Centre (DMC), 201 houses have been destroyed while another 3,250 houses have been partially damaged.

Although the cyclone is now offshore, it is forecast to move north through the Arabian Sea, and by Wednesday it seems likely to make landfall in Maharashtra or Gujarat. This is an unusual course – most cyclones go across the Arabian Sea towards Arabia.

However, cyclones do sometimes hit Maharashtra in December. The last recorded landfall was in 2009 when Phyan caused widespread damage.