Many Ukrainians, however, may overestimate the economic benefits of joining the European Union, as Julia Ioffe pointed out in the New Republic on Tuesday. Croatia’s economy, for example, has been tepid since it joined. And one of the first reforms the EU requires would mean increasing the low price of gas set by Ukraine’s notoriously corrupt energy sector.

Yanukovich’s surprise decision came just as Russian President Vladimir Putin is economically pressing Ukraine to join a rival trade group, led by Russia. This dispute is the latest example of jockeying between Putin and the West — which extends from the former Soviet bloc to the Middle East.

In recent years, U.S. officials have stepped back in Eastern Europe and allowed European Union officials to take the lead. While some have criticized that move as signaling weakness, Pifer argues that the European Union is more popular in Ukraine than the United States. Washington stepping back also eliminates a propaganda tool for the Russian leader.

“Putin can portray it as the United States is leading the charge,” Pifer said. “It’s another effort by the U.S. to hem in Russia.”

In Afghanistan, similar lessons are emerging. In a country famed for its xenophobia, the vast majority of the country’s political elite have criticized President Hamid Karzai’s last-minute refusal to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement, or BSA, that would allow a small number of U.S. forces to remain for a decade.

The reason? Economic. American and international funding of the Afghan government and its security services offers vast patronage opportunities for local leaders.

“Most political elites want the BSA signed as soon as possible,” Andrew Wilder, the director of Afghanistan and Pakistan programs at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, told me by phone this week. “Precisely because they think the patronage opportunities will shrink if it is not signed.”

Wilder argued that there are also strategic reasons for a small number of U.S. troops to remain in Kabul. Without a significant international presence, he said, the country would likely revert to civil war and again become a haven for militants. The economic and social gains of the last 12 years need to be protected.

Meanwhile, a vast economic boom has occurred in Afghanistan’s cities. A “health revolution” has led to a historic increase in average life expectancy — from 42 years to 62 years in just over a decade, which Wilder described as “unprecedented in human history.” And a “media revolution” has exponentially increased access to information — mobile phones and Facebook are enormously popular.

Too much of this growth, however, is dependent on foreign military spending and aid. Ninety percent of the Afghan government budget — including $4 billion in security force spending — comes from foreign governments. “[The United States] created this war and aid economy bubble,” Wilder said. “The question is how do we let the air gradually out rather than pop the bubble, which would be destabilizing.”