The administration turns up the pressure on China with sharp words, higher tariffs and promises of future tariffs. The Chinese retaliate, aiming to punish American interests. The stock market drops, which prompts negotiations to resume, and the administration backs off the pledged escalation.

Friday’s events represent the latter stages of that cycle. It’s particularly evident when you look at what the de-escalation consists of. The deal did not reduce tariffs already in place on Chinese imports but rather further delayed an increase that was announced during the escalation phase over the summer.

“The only things we’ve learned are that Trump loves tariffs and he doesn’t have a long-term plan,” said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Are these guys in markets like Charlie Brown and the football?”

The central tensions between the United States and China — and the domestic political constraints on each side that stand in the way of an overarching deal — remain very much in place. China’s president, Xi Jinping, cannot back away from goals of dominating many of the industries of the future; President Trump cannot acquiesce to those goals without huge political risks. The new “phase one” deal does not address one of the most fraught issues, around the ability of the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei to sell in the United States.

Moreover, the recent history of American trade policy implies that even when a deal seems to be signed, sealed and delivered, it doesn’t mean trade peace has been achieved.