When President Obama walks down the steps of the Capitol on Monday, preparing to take the Oath of Office, don’t be surprised if he does a little happy dance along the way.

House Republican leaders announced on Friday that they have agreed to increase the nation’s debt ceiling. And while their proposal would extend the government's borrowing authority for only another three months, two other fiscal policy deadlines would come first—March 1, when the automatic spending cuts of the budget sequester are set to take effect, and March 27, when the Continuing Resolution that funds the government expires. Not everybody agrees on the implications, and the agreement would come with a few conditions attached, but the emerging consensus is that Republicans would probably add another, longer extension to whatever deal those debates produce. In other words, it looks like "Republicans have all but taken the threat of default off the table completely," as Greg Sargent and many others observed on Friday.

To be sure, Republicans are still determined to fight for their priorities—namely, massive spending cuts and, where possible, new tax breaks for the rich. They might even shut down the government if they don't get their way. The expiration of the Continuing Resolution offers an opportunity for that.

But refusing to give the government new borrowing authority, so that it defaults? Wreaking all sorts of havoc on the economy? Republicans seem to have lost enthusiasm for that tactic. And while Demorats are rightly pushing for a longer term extension now, it's not clear how much the distinction ultimately matters. As Jonathan Chait wrote on Friday, "Once [Republicans have] recognized that the debt ceiling isn’t leverage, they have no reason to keep taking painful votes that expose their members to attack ads."

Of course, the full House hasn't voted on the proposal yet. That is sure to be an adventure. It always is. Who knows, within a few days, the leadership might have changed its mind—or added some new conditions. And while a government shutdown would not produce a catastrophe, as hitting the debt ceiling would, it would cause real hardship.