NRSC shuffles Senate map, reinforcing North Dakota and axing two others

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is rolling back its investments in two battleground states and investing heavily in North Dakota, where the GOP is facing an unexpectedly difficult fight to pick up an open Senate seat.

Several strategists told POLITICO that the campaign arm of the Senate GOP will begin running ads in North Dakota starting Wednesday. The NRSC is booking $3.1 million in airtime there between tomorrow and Election Day, a committee source said.

The source said the NRSC is also canceling its ads in New Mexico, where Democrat Martin Heinrich appears to be pulling ahead of Republican Heather Wilson, and Missouri, where Rep. Todd Akin’s comments about abortion and rape have damaged his campaign and caused national Republicans to flee the state.

The NRSC had previously announced it would pull its resources out of Missouri, but had not yet started to cancel its TV reservations. That has begun to change.

Asked to comment on the strategic shift, NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said the committee does not comment on ad reservations.

The NRSC’s move away from New Mexico and Missouri, and its move to reinforce North Dakota, would seem to reflect the narrower path Republicans now face on the way to a Senate majority.

It’s still entirely plausible for Republicans to win 51 seats, but some seats that once looked like easy pickup opportunities have proven surprisingly elusive.

The same committee source identified two other states where the NRSC may go on offense soon: Ohio and Florida.

Party strategists believe that Senate contests have tightened in those two states, where Republicans are challenging incumbent Democratic senators. GOP outside groups have already spent money in Ohio and Florida and the NRSC may get involved directly if the races remain competitive.

In theory, it's possible that the NRSC could put funds back into either New Mexico or Missouri if the state of those races were to change. For now, the committee is steering clear.

Of all the places where the NRSC is moving its money, the North Dakota race may be the most frustrating for national Republicans.

That campaign pits Republican Rep. Rick Berg against Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, a former state attorney general whose high personal favorability has buoyed her campaign. Republicans believe it is essential for Berg to win the Senate seat if the GOP is to win a majority in the chamber, but the first-term congressman continues to suffer from damage inflicted in his 2010 House campaign. Democratic outside groups have also leveled sharp attacks on Berg, tying him to an unpopular Republican Congress and its proposals to overhaul Medicare.

A Democratic strategist involved in the 2012 campaign exulted in the NRSC’s North Dakota spending, calling it validation of the Democrats’ commitment to what looked like a long-shot race.

“Republicans have finally hit the panic button. They have come to terms with the fact that they have a bad GOP candidate who is running a bad campaign, while Heidi Heitkamp has proven to be one of the best candidates in the entire country,” the strategist said.