In this week’s Twitter Mailbag, who has the most to lose in the many, many UFC fights going down next week? And why does it seem like the only submissions of late are rear-naked chokes and guillotines?

All that, plus some thoughts on what kind of “energy” a fighter needs to have with a ref, and more.

Got a question of your own? Tweet it to @BenFowlkesMMA.

@benfowlkesMMA of the 30+ fights next week which fighter has the most to gain/lose? — B (@old_crow22) June 29, 2016

Without a doubt, it’s Daniel Cormier. Technically, he’s the UFC light heavyweight champion, but really he feels more like an interim champ at this point, with the one true king Jon Jones returning to reclaim his title.

If it goes down like that, it’s bad news for Cormier (17-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC). That will make him 0-2 against Jones (22-1 MMA, 16-1 UFC), who’s recently walked back his talk of moving up to heavyweight, meaning he’d likely hang around and keep dominating the 205-pound class for the foreseeable future. Then what’s Cormier supposed to do?

Getting a third fight with Jones would be tough. Going up to heavyweight would put him in potential conflict with teammate Cain Velasquez. He’s already 37, and doesn’t have a ton of time to wait around for the landscape to change.

Plus, if he drops the title to Jones at UFC 200, will anyone really remember him as a UFC champion? Or will they just think of him as the guy who served as a placeholder between two different Jon Jones eras?

@benfowlkesMMA what good can come from Jon Jones saying he doesn't want Big John to ref his fight? Why say it now? — DB (@dlbno) June 29, 2016

No good whatsoever. It’s pointless to bring it up, and even more pointless to give as a rationale some vague statement about “energy.” That just flat out doesn’t make sense. There is no reason why your energy needs to align with the referee’s energy. You’re not out there doing partners yoga, bro.

It’s an especially bad idea for Jones to make that case against John McCarthy, because you can guess how fans are going to interpret it. Oh, the fighter who is often criticized for eye pokes doesn’t want to work under the oversight of a referee who is known for being especially vigilant about the potential for that particular foul? Weird.

It comes off as Jones asking for a ref who will let him stick his fingers in the other guy’s eyes, and that’s not a good look (pun!).

Try to get the ref changed before the fight, if you must. But if it doesn’t work? Move on and don’t talk about it. Complaining about negative energy at this point can accomplish nothing positive.

Is there a more unjustified do over in UFC history than McGregor Diaz 2? Diaz wouldn't have gotten a rematch right? @benfowlkesMMA #TMB — Mr. Patton (@BeardedChild88) June 30, 2016

You’re putting me in an uncomfortable position here. Because I have to tell you, you’re absolutely right. And then I have to tell you that you absolutely need to get over it and accept that this is going to be awesome anyway.

That’s what I did. When I first heard that the UFC was looking to run it back after Nate Diaz (19-10 MMA, 14-8 UFC) very clearly defeated Conor McGregor (19-3 MMA, 7-1 UFC) at UFC 196, I was just as eager as you are to call shenanigans. And it is some shenanigans, because clearly the only reason to book this fight again is because: a) you suspect the wrong guy won, b) you let one of these two men call his own shots, or c) you don’t care how it looks, because you know it’ll make a bunch of money.

In this case, seems like it could be some combination of all three. And you’re right, no way Diaz would have gotten the same shot at redemption if he’d lost that first fight. But since he won, he now stands to make a bunch of money to do it all over again, so I’m not sure how indignant we can really get on his behalf.

Plus, come on, you know you’re going to watch this fight. You know you’re going to watch all the pre-fight stuff too, just to hear Diaz hold his win over McGregor’s head while McGregor does logical and rhetorical backflips in order to continue claiming total supremacy. A good time for all, in other words.

@benfowlkesMMA Condit v Maia the winner gets a title shot right? #WouldWatch — Angry Albert (@Angry_Albert) June 29, 2016

Aren’t you forgetting someone? Fresh-faced karate dude with the crewcut? Has a nickname that implies he is a youthful phenomenon, despite the fact that he’s nearing his mid-thirties? I’m talking about Stephen Thompson (13-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC) here, Albert. Wasn’t he just promised the next UFC welterweight title shot?

But aha, you might say, Demian Maia and Carlos Condit aren’t going to fight until August. Robbie Lawler (27-10 MMA, 12-4 UFC) will defend his title against Tyron Woodley (15-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) at UFC 201 in late July. So it’s plausible for the winner of that one to turn around and defend the belt a few months later while the winner of Maia (23-6 MMA, 17-6 UFC) vs. Condit (30-9 MMA, 7-5 UFC) licks his wounds and eases back into the gym.

And, hey, maybe you’re right. Then again, maybe there’s a whole lot of stuff that could happen between now and then to ruin such carefully plotted plans.

I’m just saying, can we stop acting like there’s any one fight you can win that will guarantee you a title shot in the UFC? It’s just words, man. If you’re Maia, you could choke Condit out and get your promise of a title shot carved into a gold tablet, and it would still be nothing more than a heavy IOU if Georges St-Pierre came back and demanded a fight with Lawler. That’s life in the UFC, like it or not.

@benfowlkesMMA are you one of those people who never turns on the air conditioner? If so, why? — Daniel Downes (@dannyboydownes) June 29, 2016

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@benfowlkesMMA if you're fox sports, are you looking at the fight pass card and thinking "Why didn't we get Lewis vs Nelson?" — joelsellsout (@joelsellsout) June 29, 2016

It’s funny you should mention Derrick Lewis (15-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC), because I’ve been thinking about him a lot lately. Mostly it’s because I follow him on Instagram, where he has become my go-to source for what the kids refer to as “dank memes.”

For instance, this. And this. And that. This too.

Basically, “The Black Beast” has made me care about his fights purely by having a rad social media presence. And it has nothing to do with MMA. Honestly, when he does post the usual video of him hitting mitts or screwing around in the gym, those are the only posts I don’t care about.

But all the other stuff is so great that, when I remember he’s fighting Roy Nelson (21-12 MMA, 8-8 UFC) on a UFC Fight Pass card, I’m suddenly grateful I’m already a subscriber. I’m invested. I’ve got to see my dude Derrick fight.

If you’re the Fight Pass people, that’s exactly the kind of fight you’re looking for. It’s the kind that, while it doesn’t seem immediately relevant to the division, still feels weirdly emotionally important to the people who know what’s up in the UFC.

Should FOX Sports be mad that it didn’t get that fight for one of its broadcasts? Maybe, but only to the extent that it should be mad that Fight Pass exists at all. If the UFC has its own subscription-based streaming service to show live fights on, you’ve got to assume there will be an incentive for it to keep some of these fights for itself. At least we can all still enjoy Lewis’ Instagram together.

@benfowlkesMMA The only submissions in the UFC this year were guillotines & RNCs. Are referees to blame for standing fighters up too soon? — Aonghus Ó Faoláin (@Aongiebob) June 29, 2016

First of all, you’re wrong. There was an arm-triangle choke submission at UFC Fight Night 89 just a couple weeks ago. There was another one at UFC 197 in April. And didn’t Donald Cerrone submit Alex Oliveira with a triangle choke in February? (Answer: Yes, he did.)

But you’re right that, at least lately, the submissions we see in the UFC are almost entirely chokes, with guillotines and rear-naked chokes forming the bulk of the finishes. But that makes sense to me, and I don’t think you need to blame the refs to see why it’s the case.

For one thing, you’ll note the general lack of arm or leg lock submissions. That’s because, for one thing, it’s tough to finish a joint lock these days on a trained professional who has money on the line. Did you see how far Ali Bagautinov was willing to let his shoulder get cranked without tapping? He may have risked injury, but he ended up winning the fight.

For another, how many people are even going for armbars and heel hooks (now that Rousimar Palhares is gone and Ronda Rousey is on hiatus)? When they do, it’s usually from their backs, or as part of a sweep/takedown attempt. Very few fighters are willing to sacrifice a dominant position for a joint lock. You might not finish it. The other guy might just tough it out. But as Helio Gracie said, “For the choke, there are no tough guys.”

So why RNCs and guillotines? Think about how the chokes usually happen. Either you’re dominating someone so thoroughly on the ground that you take his back or he gives it up to avoid further punishment, at which point you sink the rear-naked choke. Or maybe you’ve rocked him on the feet, he’s desperate to get the fight to the floor, so he sticks his neck out during a sloppy takedown attempt and you snag a guillotine.

That’s what submissions often look like in MMA today. It’s not anything the refs are doing; it’s what fighters are doing, adjusting to the sport and to the adjustments of their opponents. Moral of the story? Protect ya neck, kid.

Ben Fowlkes is MMAjunkie and USA TODAY’s MMA columnist. Follow him on Twitter at @BenFowlkesMMA. Twitter Mailbag appears every Thursday on MMAjunkie.