Republican conventional wisdom claims that high voter turnout is bad for them and good for Democrats. While it’s no scientific certainty, there is some truth to the claim. As attitudes change and the country shifts towards the left, the Republican Party has encountered a constituency deficit. The majority of Americans simply aren’t interested in Republican politicians. Demographics in The United States are increasingly growing amongst young people and minorities — two blocs that tend to vote against Republicans. It’s the primary reason why a Republican winning the popular vote in a Presidential election has become a long shot. Years before Trump, the Republicans developed their electoral strategy of tapping into the racial resentments of the white working class. A diversifying country has left the Republican Party with two paths to electoral success: Either broaden the appeal of their message to a more diverse electorate or limit the voting power of their opponents’ base.

Unfortunately, the Republican Party has settled on the latter strategy by enacting undemocratic measures in order to keep Republicans in power. Voter suppression, amongst other methods of slanting elections in their favor, have proven to be largely successful in benefitting electoral outcomes for Republicans. In recent weeks, times have changed and there’s a new trick up their sleeve. As the coronavirus pandemic raises questions about the safety and practicality of in-person voting, Donald Trump and the RNC have set their sights on their latest enemy: vote by mail.

Vote By Mail “Fraud” is Virtually Nonexistent

First, let’s get this straight: voting by mail is no more susceptible to voter fraud than voting in person. In Oregon, vote by mail has been the sole method by which elections have been conducted since 2000. Here’s how it works:

All registered voters are sent a ballot three weeks before Election Day. If a registered voter no longer lives at their address on the voter file, the ballot is not forwarded.

three weeks before Election Day. If a registered voter no longer lives at their address on the voter file, the ballot is not forwarded. After casting their vote, the voter puts their ballot in a secure envelope , which contains no identifying information. The secure envelope is then placed into a second mailing envelope.

, which contains no identifying information. The secure envelope is then placed into a mailing envelope. In order to deem the ballot valid, voters are required to sign the outside of the second mailing envelope , which they then mail or take to one of the ballot drop boxes in their area.

, which they then mail or take to one of the ballot drop boxes in their area. When the ballots arrive at the county Board of Elections office, the outside signature is compared with the original registration signature on record at the office, to protect against fraud.

Pretty simple, right? Oregon has sent out more than 100,000,000 ballots since 2000, with only 12 or so cases of proven fraud. That is a .000012% rate of voter fraud from a full vote by mail system. According to the National Vote at Home Institute, the other states with universal vote-by-mail have also had similarly microscopic cases of voter fraud. In short, no evidence has surfaced that vote by mail in Oregon has led to voter fraud. Critics of vote by mail don’t have the evidence to back up their insincere voter fraud concerns.

(The Medford Mail Tribune via AP / Denise Baratta )

Throughout the course of the battle for mail-in ballots nationwide, you might hear the term “ballot harvesting” thrown around. Ballot harvesting is when nefarious persons go door to door in neighborhoods known to tilt heavily toward one side, offering to turn in ballots — and then simply discarding them. The dirty tactic was used by a Republican operative in North Carolina, which led to the overturning of a 2018 Congressional election. Republican Mark Harris won his race for Congress by less than 1,000 votes on Election Day ‘18. During the recount, the results were questioned by allegations that a local political operative working for the Harris campaign and a scheme to collect and tamper with absentee ballots. By the end of the investigation, Leslie McCrae Dowless — the Republican operative — was indicted on:

Three counts of obstruction of justice

Two counts of conspiracy to commit obstruction of justice

Two counts of possessing an absentee ballot in violation of state law

So, sure, there are some legitimate concerns about the system, but the incidents are very rare and used by Republicans — not against them.

Suppressing Voter Turnout is Textbook Republican Strategy

Republicans have strongly defended their attempts to restrict voting access — from opposing vote by mail to systemic voter suppression. At a glance, voter suppression is a multi-faceted strategy used to sway the outcome of an election by discouraging, inhibiting, or preventing specific groups from casting a ballot. Long before the coronavirus pandemic, as the Republican Party lost support amongst growing blocs of voters, they opened doors to voting restrictions by promoting (and repeating) these conspiracies of widespread “voter fraud.” Republican state legislatures have:

Passed voter ID laws that disproportionately keep students, minorities, and the poor from casting a ballot — even if they’re registered to vote.

Shut down polling precincts in black neighborhoods, causing those communities to first find their new polling place and then find a way to get there.

Literally purged Democratic voters from the voter rolls.

Purging is done through “voter caging.” Voter caging is the practice of sending mass direct mailings to registered voters by non-forwardable mail, then compiling lists of voters — called “caging lists” — from the returned mail, in order to formally challenge their right to vote on that basis alone. Because of typos, high relocation rates amongst renters, improper mail delivery, denial of mass mail, or temporary absence (college students), the data suggests this method is highly unreliable and simply a political tactic. Republican attempts to rig elections for predictable outcomes are becoming increasingly frequent and blatant.

In 2018, a year in which Republicans faced harsh scrutiny of their support for a highly unpopular President, there were many examples of Republican candidates deliberately attacking the legitimacy of free and fair elections. In Georgia’s gubernatorial race, Secretary of State, Brian Kemp, facilitated one of the largest voter caging efforts in the country…while running for Governor. Kemp improperly purged 340,000 (mostly black) voters from Georgia voter rolls and won his election for Governor by a razor thin margin.

Gerrymandering is the practice of drawing the boundaries of Congressional districts so that as many seats as possible are likely to be won by a party’s candidates. In a 2010 letter to all Republican state legislative leaders nationwide, Chris Jankowski, then-president and CEO of The Republican State Leadership Committee, offered a “team of seasoned redistricting experts available to you at no cost to your caucus for assistance.” This strategy allows Republican representatives to choose their voters rather than the other way around.

(FairVote)

It’s executed by “cracking” — drawing lines that break up dense areas of opposing party voters into multiple districts — and “packing” — grouping these opposition voters into the fewest number of districts as possible, leaving them to be outnumbered in the state by and large. Because of aggressive Republican gerrymandering, their party has a sizable advantage in both statewide and federal elections. Even when more voters actively vote against them, their manipulation of redistricting keeps them in power. The Wisconsin map below shows how gerrymandering can slant Republican control — even when they earn fewer votes.

(Reuters)

The Bottom Line

Nobody should be forced to risk their own health or the health of their loved ones to exercise their right to vote — obviously. Whether you plan to vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden, you are entitled to do so safely. Even if you love the Election Day ritual of standing in line and brandishing your sticker at work, you might have to send a ballot by mail this time. There’s a very clear reason why:

A pandemic has spread like wildfire and continues to infect or kill hundreds of thousands of Americans. In order to maintain your adherence to the CDC’s recommended social distancing guidelines, voting by mail is the safest way to vote and keep your family, along with anyone who might touch a surface after you, safe. The Trumpian fight to deny national vote by mail does not address legitimate concerns of voter fraud or propose measures to vote safely; they’re just regurgitating lies to suppress voter turnout in November. This fight follows a long pattern of the RNC to suppress voter turnout in order to preserve the dwindling power of their shrinking coalition. Needlessly creating obstacles in the way of voting is election rigging, not voting by mail. This is common sense.

Since Republicans don’t have the support of the majority of the country, suppressing voter turnout gives them their necessary advantage to retain institutional control of government. As the country looks, prays, and thinks differently than Republicans, they are deliberately sabotaging the legitimacy of our elections so the White House, federal courts, and State Capitols remain controlled by conservative, white Christians. When Trump raises concerns over vote by mail fraud, he’s lying. Donald Trump and the Republicans know they are in serious trouble this November and they would rather deny you the right to vote safely than jeopardize their power.