As Andrew wrote earlier this week, Virginia Tech is a very strange team. Like usual, they have an outstanding defense and offense that goes only in fits and spurts, but they’ve been incredibly up-and-down this year. They won on the road at Ohio State and have losses to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. Simply put, it’s hard to know what to expect from this team game in and game out. I don’t really agree with Andrew’s sentiment when he said, “Simply put, this is a team Miami should beat.” Going on the road in this environment in a fairly even matchup (Football Outsider’s S&P+ rankings, which adjust for opponent, has Miami ranked 19th in the country and Virginia Tech 20th) is no easy task, but this is certainly a game Miami can win. It also serves as a de facto Coastal elimination game as it’s almost mathematically impossible for the loser of this game to win the division. On to the preview.

Game Details

Miami Hurricanes (4-3, 1-2 ACC) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-3, 1-2 ACC)

Thursday, October 23, 8 pm, ESPN

Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA

Line: Miami -3 (?!)

Passing Offense vs. Virginia Tech

Oct 11, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Brad Kaaya (15) throws the ball in the second quarter of a game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s start with the bad news right off the bat: this defense is really good. The Hokies rank 6th in the country in Football Outsider’s defensive S&P+ rankings and are 20th in the nation in overall yardage. Looking specifically at the passing defense, this unit is quite stout, though not quite as much as it was a year ago. Still, they give up just 203 passing yards per game, good for 28th in the nation. Stud sophomore Kendall Fuller starts at one corner for the Hokies while sophomore Chuck Clark and junior Donovan Riley rotate on the other side. They’re tough in coverage and Miami’s talented receivers will be challenged to gain separation.

On the Hurricane side of things, this is going to be the best defense the ‘Canes have faced so far this year (although Louisville was pretty good in that department). It will be critical for Kaaya to avoid bad interceptions that have plagued him at times this year. That said, Brad has been superb and surpassed all reasonable expectations for him this season and, as long as he doesn’t try to do too much, he has the ability to have an effective game against a good defense like Virginia Tech. It’s also going to be very important for Miami’s offensive line to continue its run of good play—while VT did lose a lot from last year’s formidable pass rush, they’ve still picked up four sacks for game to this point in 2014.

Rushing Offense vs. Virginia Tech

Oct 11, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson (8) runs with the ball as Cincinnati Bearcats cornerback Grant Coleman (13) attempts the tackle in the second half of a game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Sun Life Stadium. The Hurricanes won 55-34. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Here’s another match-up between two very good units: Miami’s ground game and VT’s rushing defense. The Hokies rank 29th in the nation in rushing defense and that includes a game against Georgia Tech. On the other hand, both of Miami’s key backs—Duke Johnson and Joe Yearby—average better than seven yards per carry (!!) this year. The game may very well be decided in this facet of the game as it’s going to be critical for Miami to run the ball effectively in a crazy environment with a freshman quarterback, no matter how outstanding Kaaya has been to this point. One huge break for the ‘Canes is that Hokies LB and leading tackler Chase Williams has been ruled out. With that in mind, I would give the Hurricanes a slight edge here.

While I am a big James Coley fan, I would like to see him to run the ball more and this would be a key game to do that and do it effectively. It’s pretty absurd that both of Miami’s leading rushers are above 7 yards per carry (and the third guy, Gus Edwards is at 6.4!) and Miami ranks just 68th in the nation in rush yards. Some of that is due to Brad Kaaya’s propensity to hold on to the ball too long and get sacked, which comes out of rushing yards, but that’s just a small caveat. Simply put, Miami needs to get the ball to Duke and Gus more often. That should start against Virginia Tech.

Passing Defense vs. Virginia Tech

Oct 16, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Michael Brewer (12) scrambles with the ball against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Now the fun part—talking about the Hokies’ offense! VT quarterback Michael Brewer has been a turnover machine this year, tossing eleven passes to the wrong team against just 11 touchdowns. That’s two more interceptions than Brad Kaaya and Brewer doesn’t have Kaaya’s gorgeous 9 YPA to go with that. Instead, Brewer is averaging a very pedestrian 6.3 YPA while completing 61% of his passes. To state it plainly, he’s not very good and every time he goes back to pass Virginia Tech fans should be just as afraid as the fans of the team on defense. (Of course now that I say that, he’s going to go off like Logan Thomas did in the rain at Sun Life last year.)

Looking at the receiving corps, there’s actually a lot there for VT. The Hokies spread the ball around with six receivers hauling in at least 11 passes this year and four with at least 20. (For reference, Miami has a whopping one receiver with more than 20 catches, Clive Walford.) Isaiah Ford and Willie Byrn both have better than 30 grabs, for 424 and 253 yards, respectively. Other guys to watch for are Cam Phillips and Bucky Hodges. While the VT receivers’ numbers are quite gaudy, this is largely a product of Brewer slinging 265 passes around so far this season (that’s 38 per game!!). The Hokies certainly have some talented playmakers at that position, but I’m not very afraid of this attack.

Rushing Defense vs. Virginia Tech

Sep 27, 2014; Blacksburg, VA, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies running back Marshawn Williams (42) rushes the ball against the Western Michigan Broncos at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

Virginia Tech ranks 80th in that nation in rushing offense and the stats from the RBs are okay but certainly not setting the world on fire. While there are a lot of carries spread around, Marshawn Williams leads the team with 85 and picks up just 4 yards per carry. He picked up an injury earlier this season against UNC but he’s expected to play against Miami. Shai McKenzie is next in line with 53 and he’s good for a much better 5.1 yards per carry. Behind those two, there is a stable of five running backs with between 10 and 26 touches, averaging about 4 yards per carry between them. These numbers are quite disappointing for an offensive line featuring four seniors, but the Hokies just don’t have a very prolific offense. This match-up should definitely be a win for the Hurricanes, who have performed very well in rushing defense outside of the Georgia Tech game.

Special Teams

The kicker for VT is freshman Joey Slye, who’s been fairly solid—12-of-17 on the year, including 10-for-11 inside of 40 yards. Anything beyond that is pretty shake though as he’s just 2-for-6 from beyond 40. Junior punter AJ Hughes is fine but certainly not spectacular, averaging 41 yards per kick on 39 punts. (Wow this offense must be bad if their punter already has booted 39 punts.) Demitri Knowles and Deon Newsome handle kickoff returns and neither broken one or averages better than 20 yards per return. Greg Stroman returns punts and averages nine yards per return with no touchdowns.

For Miami, the special teams will look the same as it has for most of this year, with Badgely still handling kicking duties.

Three Keys to Victory

1. Get Duke and Yearby more carries. Both average better than 7 yards per carry this year and this will be the toughest defense Brad Kaaya has faced in his young career.

2. Utilize an array of blitzes to get to Michael Brewer. He is an interception machine, especially when he’s under pressure. If the ‘Canes can get to him, chances are they’ll receive a couple of gift turnovers in the process.

3. Avoid turnovers. If Miami can get out of Blacksburg with fewer than two turnovers, it’s hard to see them losing this game.

Prediction Time

I’ve learned to be weary of these primetime road games even though this feels like a game Miami can win if they play decently well. If the ‘Canes can avoid turnovers and giving up big plays, it’s very hard to see Virginia Tech winning this game. That said, it’s all too easy to see turnovers and big plays happening. I like Miami to take care of business because they’d have to play poorly for VT to win this game, but the ‘Canes are far from a lock.

Miami 24, Virginia Tech 17