To the Editor:

Re “What the Next Year (or Two) May Look Like” (front page, April 19):

I appreciated the spectrum of opinions offered by nearly two dozen experts, predicting the future of the Covid-19 pandemic. With all due respect, at some point we may need to consult an epidemiologist just to model the models. As more data accrue, models will become more predictive and reliable.

In the meantime, we must remember that the virus is “novel.” This explains the broad range of estimates of expected cases, proportion of cases that are asymptomatic versus fatal, duration of the pandemic, and likelihood and magnitude of subsequent surges.

Increased testing for clinically evident and silent infections will eventually inform the true mortality rate, currently estimated to be anywhere between about 0.1 percent and 5 percent, a 50-fold spread. Based upon preliminary serologic data from investigators at my university, I suspect that the lower estimate will be closer to reality.

Respiratory viruses are typically seasonal pathogens, and this virus may have a similar pattern. It is possible that, like SARS, it will burn out or at least become less severe. I acknowledge that I am more optimistic than many of my colleagues. Optimism is an occupational hazard of pediatricians!