Below is a recap of some metrics and visualizations of shot attempts by players and teams during the 2014-2015 NBA season.

In our previous article, we built random forest and logistic regression models predicting whether a shot was made or not based on the time of possession, shot distance, and the previous play (i.e. missed shot, turnover, timeout).

Outside of these models, however, it is probably more useful to quantify shot patterns on a player and team level.

Visualizing possession time and shot distance allows us to explore how teams value different shot types (i.e. three-pointer versus a mid-range jumper) and the shot clock. For example, a team built around power forwards and centers might tend to cluster shots around the basket and draw out the length of a possession whereas a fast tempo small-ball lineup would probably look to spread the court and create quick shots. Of course, the opposite could also be true particularly with today’s hybrid-small ball lineup teams.

Shot distance

The 2014-15 Memphis Grizzles certainly weren’t afraid of the interior taking 67.3 two-point attempts (2PA) per game (second highest in the NBA). Point guard Mike Conley consistently fed passes to the center/power forward combo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol (107 and 111 offensive rating respectively).

The Portland Trailblazers and the Los Angeles Clippers utilized a different philosophy and aggressively hurled threes averaging a 14.08 and 14.11 foot shot distance over the 2014-15 campaign.

The Clippers squad featuredJamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, and Chris Paul, who each averaged over four 3PA per game. The Trailblazers (ranking third in 3PA) possessed an even heavier three-point lineup with Damian Lillard (7.0 3PA), Wesley Matthews (7.4 3PA), and Nicolas Batum (4.4 3PA).

Figure 1: Average Shot Distance for each NBA team (2014-2015 season).

Possession and Pace

The 2014-15 New Orleans Pelicans averaged a league high 14.33 seconds per possession and ranked 22nd in PACE (92.2). The star studded Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder took the opposite approach averaging just 12.04 and 12.24 seconds per possession.

Figure 2: The average length of possession for each team (2014-2015 season).

In 2014-15, Pelicans’ star forward Anthony Davis averaged just 0.2 3PA per game. This number jumped to 1.8 3PA by the next season. So far in the 2017-18, Davis is shooting 34.7% from three-point range through January 19th.

For reference, Davis took 252 shots within the 11 to 16 second shot clock range and only 117 shots in the 6 to 10 second range (2.15 ratio).

Figure 3: Shot chart for Anthony Davis (2014-2015 season).

Figure 4: Shots taken by Anthony Davis from 6-10 seconds and 11-15 seconds on the shot clock.

By contrast, teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder played at a much quicker pace than the Pelicans (12.24 seconds average possession time).

Like Davis, Enes Kanter, a former center with the Thunder (now playing for the New York Knicks), took 58 more shots during the 11-15 second shot clock range. Relative to his shot total for the season, however, Kanter got more attempts earlier in the possession (1.80 ratio shots in the 11-15 second range to shots in the 6-10 seconds range).

The Turkish center was bound to shoot earlier in the shot clock with point guard Russell Westbrook pushing the pace at the point (95.7 PACE ranked 7th in 2014-15).

Figure 5: Shots taken by Enes Kanter from 6-10 seconds and 11-15 seconds on the shot clock.

Starting in 2015-16, however, the newly hired Alvin Gentry transformed the Pelicans into an up-tempo offense ranking 11th overall in PACE sandwiched between the Indiana Pacers (10th) and the Trailblazers (12th).

In 2017-18, Gentry’s squad ranks 6th in PACE, which has perhaps allowed Davis to become a more versatile player running the floor, posting-up, and shooting from the outside. As an example, Davis averaged 1.6 extra 3PA per game in 2015-16 (compared to 14-15) and is averaging 1.9 3PA this season.

Play sequences and shots

Making a shot is considered the best cure for defense. We tested this theory and found it to be true. Over the 2014-15 campaign, teams shot 44.1% on possessions following a made shot and 46.15% on shots following a missed shot.

These metrics intuitively make sense. After a made shot, the defensive team has time to set themselves up on defense, which typically prevents a quick fast break opportunity that can occur on missed shots or turnovers.

We also found that teams shot 51.12 FG% on field goal attempts stemming from turnovers, 45.86% off of rebounds, and 41.78% after a timeout. This suggests that coaches should think twice before calling a time out particularly late in the game because the defensive team has a chance to develop a game plan and position themselves against the offensive team.

Overall, we can see that teams and players change shooting habits from season to season. Along with this, understanding how these changes evolve and how play sequences lead to made or missed shots is the next step for evaluating performance in the NBA.

Github: https://github.com/Fremont28/play_by_play

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