Indiana is not a swing state; 2008 was an aberration due to the financial crisis. Missouri is no longer a swing state; it is a southern state whose vote diverged by 7 percent from the national electorate and is moving away from our party. Arizona and Georgia and Texas are not yet swing states; by 2020, all three will be competitive. Montana and North Dakota are just outside of the reach of almost any Democratic Presidential Candidate.

The polls

North Carolina

NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/23 - 9/25 1,035 LV 46 48 5 Obama +2

Civitas (R) / National Research (R) 9/18 - 9/19 600 RV 45 49 7 Obama +4

Purple Strategies 9/15 - 9/19 600 LV 46 48 6 Obama +2

High Point University/Fox 8 9/8 - 9/18 448 RV 43 46 9 Obama +3

Composite: President Obama 47.2 Willard 46.6

Virginia

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN

ARG 9/24 - 9/27 600 LV 49 47 3 Obama +2

Suffolk/NBC12 9/24 - 9/26 600 LV 46 44 8 Obama +2

PPP (D)/NRDC 9/17 - 9/19 2,770 LV 49 43 8 Obama +6

Purple Strategies 9/15 - 9/19 600 LV 46 43 11 Obama +3

FOX 9/16 - 9/18 1,006 LV 49 42 6 Obama +7

We Ask America 9/17 - 9/17 1,238 LV 49 46 5 Obama +3

Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 9/11 - 9/17 1,474 LV 50 46 3 Obama +4

PPP (D) 9/13 - 9/16 1,021 LV 51 46 3 Obama +5

Washington Post 9/12 - 9/16 847 LV 52 44 - Obama +8

YouGov 9/7 - 9/14 1,047 LV 48 44 6 Obama +4

Composite: President Obama 48.4 Willard 45

Colorado

MARGIN

PPP (D) 9/20 - 9/23 940 LV 51 45 4 Obama +6

Gravis Marketing 9/21 - 9/22 765 LV 50 46 4 Obama +4

Purple Strategies 9/15 - 9/19 600 LV 48 45 7 Obama +3

NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/16 - 9/18 971 LV 50 45 4 Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 48.4 Willard 45

Iowa

MARGIN

PPP (D) 9/24 - 9/26 754 LV 51 44 5 Obama +7

Des Moines Register/Selzer 9/23 - 9/26 650 LV 49 45 2 Obama +4

Voter/Consumer Research (R-The Iowa Republican) 9/23 - 9/25 500 RV 46 47 7 Romney +1

ARG 9/20 - 9/23 600 LV 51 44 4 Obama +7

Rasmussen 9/19 - 9/19 500 LV 44 47 5 Romney +3

NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/16 - 9/18 898 LV 50 42 7 Obama +8

YouGov 9/7 - 9/14 700 LV 48 43 5 Obama +5

PPP (D) 8/23 - 8/26 1,244 LV 47 45 8 Obama +2

Rasmussen 8/8 - 8/8 500 LV 44 46 6 Romney +2

PPP (D) 7/12 - 7/15 1,131 LV 48 43 9 Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 48.4 Willard 44.1

Wisconsin

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN

We Ask America 9/20 - 9/23 1,238 LV 53 41 5 Obama +12

PPP (D) 9/18 - 9/19 842 LV 52 45 3 Obama +7

NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/16 - 9/18 968 LV 50 45 4 Obama +5

Rasmussen 9/17 - 9/17 500 LV 49 46 2 Obama +3

Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 9/11 - 9/17 1,485 LV 51 45 3 Obama +6

Marquette Law School 9/13 - 9/16 601 LV 54 40 5 Obama +14

Composite: President Obama 50.6 Willard 43.2

New Hampshire

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN

ARG 9/25 - 9/27 600 LV 50 45 4 Obama +5

NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/23 - 9/25 1,012 LV 51 44 4 Obama +7

GQR (D-New Hampshire Democratic Party) 9/15 - 9/19 600 LV 52 45 - Obama +7

Rasmussen 9/18 - 9/18 500 LV 45 48 3 Romney +3

ARG 9/15 - 9/17 463 LV 48 47 - Obama +1

YouGov 9/7 - 9/14 340 LV 48 42 5 Obama +6

UNH/WMUR 9/4 - 9/10 592 LV 45 40 12 Obama +5

PPP (D) 8/9 - 8/12 1,055 LV 51 45 5 Obama +6

Composite: President Obama 49.2 Willard 44.4

Florida

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN

InsiderAdvantage/Florida Times-Union 9/24 - 9/24 540 LV 49 46 4 Obama +3

Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 9/18 - 9/24 1,196 LV 53 44 3 Obama +9

PPP (D) 9/20 - 9/23 861 LV 50 46 4 Obama +4

Washington Post 9/19 - 9/23 769 LV 51 47 1 Obama +4

ARG 9/20 - 9/22 600 LV 50 45 4 Obama +5

Mason-Dixon 9/17 - 9/19 800 LV 48 47 4 Obama +1

Purple Strategies 9/15 - 9/19 600 LV 47 48 5 Romney +1

We Ask America 9/18 - 9/18 1,230 LV 49 46 4 Obama +3

FOX 9/16 - 9/18 829 LV 49 44 5 Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 48.6 Willard 45.4

Nevada

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN

NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/23 - 9/25 984 LV 49 47 3 Obama +2

ARG 9/20 - 9/23 600 LV 51 44 4 Obama +7

POS (R) 9/19 - 9/20 500 LV 46 46 2 -

PPP (D-League of Conservation Voters) 9/18 - 9/20 501 LV 52 43 5 Obama +9

Rasmussen 9/18 - 9/18 500 LV 47 45 3 Obama +2

CNN 9/14 - 9/18 741 LV 49 46 4 Obama +3

YouGov 9/7 - 9/14 541 LV 51 44 3 Obama +7

PPP (D) 8/23 - 8/26 831 LV 50 47 4 Obama +3

SurveyUSA 8/16 - 8/21 869 LV 47 45 4 Obama +2

Rasmussen 7/24 - 7/24 500 LV 50 45 4 Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 49.2 Willard 45.2

Ohio

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN

Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 9/18 - 9/24 1,162 LV 53 43 3 Obama +10

Washington Post 9/19 - 9/23 759 LV 52 44 2 Obama +8

Gravis Marketing 9/21 - 9/22 594 LV 45 44 10 Obama +1

PPP (D)/NRDC 9/17 - 9/19 2,890 LV 50 44 6 Obama +6

Purple Strategies 9/15 - 9/19 600 LV 48 44 8 Obama +4

FOX 9/16 - 9/18 1,009 LV 49 42 7 Obama +7

Ohio Newspaper Organization/University of Cincinnati 9/13 - 9/18 861 LV 51 46 2 Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 49.1 Willard 43.0

Michigan

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN

Gravis Marketing 9/21 - 9/22 804 LV 50 46 4 Obama +4

Rasmussen 9/20 - 9/20 500 LV 54 42 3 Obama +12

PPP (D-NRDC) 9/17 - 9/19 2,386 LV 51 42 7 Obama +9

CNN 9/14 - 9/18 754 LV 52 44 3 Obama +8

Glengariff Group 9/15 - 9/17 600 LV 52 38 9 Obama +14

Marketing Resource Group (R) 9/10 - 9/14 600 LV 48 42 8 Obama +6

YouGov 9/7 - 9/14 1,114 LV 51 42 4 Obama +9

Composite: President Obama 50.6 Willard 41.7

Pennsylvania

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY NONE UNDECIDED

Muhlenberg 9/22 - 9/26 427 LV 49 42 - 5

Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 9/18 - 9/24 1,180 LV 54 42 - 2

Franklin and Marshall College 9/18 - 9/23 392 LV 52 43 - 3

Susquehanna (R)/Tribune-Review 9/18 - 9/20 800 LV 47 45 - 6

Mercyhurst University 9/12 - 9/20 522 LV 48 40 - 6

Rasmussen 9/19 - 9/19 500 LV 51 39

Composite: President Obama 50.5 Willard 41.4

New Mexico

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN

POS (R-Wilson) 9/25 - 9/27 500 LV 47 40 - Obama +7

PPP (D)/NRDC 9/17 - 9/20 3,111 LV 52 43 6 Obama +9

YouGov 9/7 - 9/14 293 LV 51 43 1 Obama +8

PPP (D-League of Conservation Voters) 9/7 - 9/9 1,122 LV 53 42 5 Obama +11

Albuquerque Journal 9/3 - 9/6 667 LV 45 40 8 Obama +5

Rasmussen 8/21 - 8/21 500 LV 52 38 1 Obama +14

Composite: President Obama 50.9 Willard 41.7

Massachusetts

POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN

Boston Globe/UNH NEW! 9/21 - 9/27 502 LV 57 30 11 Obama +27

Rasmussen 9/24 - 9/24 500 LV 55 40 2 Obama +15

UMass Lowell/Herald 9/13 - 9/17 497 LV 60 36 5 Obama +24

PPP (D) 9/13 - 9/16 876 LV 57 39 4 Obama +18

Suffolk 9/13 - 9/16 600 LV 64 31 4 Obama +33

Composite: President Obama 57.4 Willard 36.2

Willard is above 45.4 in only one of the above swing states: North Carolina.



President Obama is at 48.4 or above in every single swing state except North Carolina.

Ohio is a swing state like Massachusetts is (0+ / 0-)



a swing state. Huff Post lists the confidence that President Obama is ahead there as : 100 percent. The polls reflect this. And there are underlying factors that undergird this understanding: 1 in 8 jobs in Ohio is related to the auto industry which Ohioans know President Obama saved, 500,000 new manufacturing jobs have been created over President Obama's first term; manufacturing is very important to Ohio. Ohio's unemployment rate is substantially lower than the rest of the country. John Kasich is extremely unpopular there. His anti union bill SB 5 was defeated by 20 points and Willard tied himself to it.

Willard has zero ability to connect with working class people who dominate Ohio elections.

Willard's chances of winning Ohio are only marginally better than mine. Ohio is not a swing state this election. not between these candidates.

Note that President Obama is sitting on 50% in a number of Ohio polls. Willard can't get remotely close to 50% there. Convincing Obama voters to change their mind is willard's only move and it will not be successful.

President Obama is extremely confident about his position electorally now. That is why he is pushing his : commit to vote for Barack Obama

We note that PPP confirmed once again that President Obama is at or near 50% while Willard remains mired at 45% . PPP does not include cell phones and that hurts us in the polling. They also do not use live interviewers. This also hurts us in the polling. The better pollsters with live interviewers and who include cell phones show larger leads for President Obama, as Nate Silver pointed out. Willard has led in precisely 2 polls in Ohio since June. And they were by Gravis Marketing (R and a poor pollster) and Purple Strategies (Alex Castellanos -also R and a poor pollster). Even the House of Ras has not pretended that Willard has ever had a lead there. Not even Ras. Willard's own advisers admitted to journalists that they were down about 9 there; this is the same number that President Obama's team has in their internal polling.

*************************

Sometime in the not too distant future, I plan to explore the ramifications of swing states and the electoral college. For, this could remover the tether that connects individual states (and their polls) with national polls. In other words, since President Obama and willard have many states locked down - where the other cannot get to 50, neither of them focus on those states. Neither of them advertise or campaign or invest resources in those states. The numbers in those states could become lopsided or closer. This would effect the national polls. Yet, it would not effect the electoral college.

Therefore, the relationship that individual states have to the national polls has become very tenuous. I am, therefore, leaning towards the view that the national polls are not as informative of the polls in individual swing states as they used to be. Moreover, I predict that this will become increasingly true.

I also have this belief that this jeopardizes our democracy. For, essentially we have the two candidates only competing for the available votes in a few swing states. Thankfully, demographics and the exceptional nature of President Obama widened the map, at least for us. However, soon, demographics will put some of the newly minted Democratic states into safe Democratic status. And we will continue competing for the votes of a few voters in swing states. It is like the primary process which is fairly flawed, only worse.

It may be time to have a serious discussion about the electoral college. I am not saying that I am against the electoral college. I am saying that it merits a real discussion since the above disadvantage is quite serious.



I just did the commit to vote thing. It was cool also just to verify my registration.

https://www.barackobama.com/...

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Thank you very much !