Except we are starting in January about 2X higher in price than January at the same time in 2019.

I believe that human nature/logic/irrationality has found it's collectively crazy way into trading bot logic and,

that the crypto market changes from time to time driven by such human altered bot logic, is reflecting human trading patterns to a large extent in a speculative manner mostly, in crypto, and is fairly predictive over the course of a year, provided we don't run into extraordinary circumstances. Now that the major extraordinary circumstance , Trump's potential impeachment has been removed and just as quickly replaced by the fact the Coronavirus is clearly now ID'd by the CDC and WHO as pandemic, let's take a closer look at how this second extraordinary circumstance slows down Main St. production (Hyundai) due to China parts shipment restrictions and how that will impact crypto, specifically BTC which is still 64% of the entire crypto market cap.

Let's first say, I think this second extraordinary circumstance of the Coronavirus pandemic will cause a Stock and Bond Market down turn of some proportion as investors , some of us "flee" to hard stores of value, BTC being one of them, gold being the bigger one. So upward price pressure is almost guaranteed, a behaviour resonating and pressuring the crypto prices higher, investor behaviour which is essentially immune to the hyperbole of the SOTU address made earlier today by President Trump. There are alot of FT500 companies of Zombie stature buying back their stock in an automated way, where the stock price and the EPS just don't add up to actual Main St. revenues and, these Zombie companies have literally no ability to cover their own debt (2X or more over-inflated pricing by most measures) which means, 30-40% of the FT500 are insolvent and require the Fed "Repo Crack" cheap money to survive, which is being 'dished up' daily to keep the velocity of money going on Wall St. and stabilize the Cantillon Effect market findings to be solid for the top 1% well-monied who have access to such cheap debt money. Expect such fed behavior to persist until after the US 2020 election in October and thereafter, anything can happen. That said..,

the January to June 2X BTC price ramp up I mention in previous posts is all but secured, so even now with BTC chasing 10K, expect BTC to almost 2X by the early summer, dragging the rest of the crypto under-performers faster up the ramp to 2.5X or 3X growth over the same Jan. to June Ramp. Nice. ( to be safe be sure to get out before all the big summer toy buying begins by the competing whales who really drive this crazy crypto market in mostly predictable ways.)

Using the 360 day Curve (over/under averaging method) ramp in the title chart, US $18K is clearly within reach, and likely an outcome for BTC, IMO, by the end of June or early July, given the human nature embedded in the ultra-fast trading bots out there driving the crypto markets. The chart above tells the story, one I tend to believe, barring any other unforeseen extra-ordinary circumstance showing up before June, like the CDC and WHO finding a cure and snuffing the coronavirus out in world record time, say one month. Such an event could happen, but likely won't and, the cynic in me says Big Pharma types are 'licking their chops' at the vaccine revenue opportunity so its even less likely to happen within the ramp period, if it did happen such a 'cure' could trigger a run by investors in crypto back to stocks and bonds and away from BTC and gold/metals (not gonna happen imo) Ok, there, I addressed the 'elephant' in the blog. :)

The bottom line, if you're looking for a quick almost 2X return on your hard stores of value in 6 months or so, then crypto is the place to be, BTC looks like a lock to me to do so, cracking 18K by July or maybe a bit higher, with other important altcoins and tokens with high secondary value and utility enjoying a steeper , likely shorter ride for the most part. Just watch out for those extraordinary events which could shift investor sentiment away from crypto...

So pick your altcoins wisely, and "keep an eye out" for those extraordinary circumstances which will trigger humans to change bot trading logic really fast.

good investing, be safe

TK over and out