The trade deadline is about two weeks away so as talk heat up across the league it’s worth doing a level set on where the Celtics sit in their team building process, and assess what some of their goals may be. After a few years of flipping pennies for nickels and quarters for dimes this season’s deadline priority is a little more traditional: Add talent now (but don’t sacrifice too much of the future).

This will be part one of the deadline preview and focused on the team’s general situation. Part two will look at our current players; part three will be everyone’s’ favorite game of naming possible targets and throwing out semi-lopsided trade proposals.

Current Cap Position

After a summer of squeezing every asset they could out of their rare position under the salary cap, Danny Ainge, Mike Zarren, and the Celtics front office now sit nearly $10M over the cap.

It’s possible that the Celtics will drop all the way down below the cap (more on that in Part 2) but the most likely scenario is that the Celtics will stay above the cap for the remainder of the season before dropping below next summer.Some of that cap overage is related to waived players like Perry Jones and small guarantees paid to camp invites eventually routed to Maine. There’s also a $2.275M hold on the books for Gigi Datome’s rights, in case you’re holding out hopes for a Bun Brothers run with Kelly Olynyk (and who isn’t?).

The slightly more important number to watch is the luxury tax. The team is about $7M under the tax line. While I’m sure ownership would be happy to pay the tax if it meant acquiring a star player, it’s much more likely that any acquisitions will be for players below star level and that the team will be sure to land below the tax. Realistically, it would be hard to actually add $7M in salary with the trade matching rules and with no trade exceptions on the books.

Future Cap Position

This summer, the Celtics have possibly the best cap position of any team in the league, in relation to their level of talent. The Lakers and 76ers have more easily accessible cap space but not a lot of NBA ready talent to back it up. The Celtics, by way of a collection of below market, rookie, and non-guaranteed deals, will almost certainly make the playoffs and then hit the summer with enough cap space to sign at least one max-contract level player.

For that reason, the team should be reluctant to add salary beyond this year unless it’s for a star player or very clear upgrade. The incremental value of a mid-level acquisition is not worth closing off any offseason avenues for franchise altering moves, no matter how unlikely one is.

While it looks like the Celtics only have $16M in cap space, that includes the no-guaranteed salaries for Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko, the cap holds tied to the rights of pending free agents, and projected holds from draft picks. By waiving (or trading into another team’s cap space) a player like Amir the team can quickly open another $12M in cap space. In the pipe dream situation of two players like Durant and Horford wanting to come to Boston, the team could clear all the way close to double-max cap space, and then trade away players on good contracts into other teams’ cap space to open additional room. The 2016-17 max contracts are currently projected to be $21.2M for players with 0-6 years experience, who are usually restricted free agents like Harrison Barnes or Andre Drummond. Players with 7-9 years experience will have max contracts around $25.4M; this group includes players like Kevin Durant, Al Horford, and DeMar DeRozan. Players with ten or more years of experience, like LeBron James, will have a max salary around $29.7M.

The key to all of this is the flexibility that the franchise has because, once David Lee’s deal is no longer on the books, they will hold no bad contracts. Everything can be moved easily if a better opportunity is available, or held to maintain what is already a very strong team.

Roster Construction

Over the past few weeks coach Brad Stevens has pared the rotation down to 9.5 players. Every role is well covered in that group, except for a true backup wing. Long term, it’s possible that James Young could fill this spot but at the moment the team is exposed to quite a bit of injury risk if anything were to happen to Jae Crowder. That need is shared by most of the league.

The team could also use some kind of hybrid frontcourt player. Each of Amir Johnson (defense), Jared Sullinger (rebounding), Kelly Olynyk (shooting), Jonas Jerebko (hair), and Tyler Zeller (finishing) are somewhat of specialists. David Lee was given the opportunity to show that he could be more of a generalist player but if there was any doubt coming into the season, we now know he’s washed up. Coach Stevens has set up the rotation to match the right back- and frontcourt skills but life would certainly be easier if Sully and Kelly could learn the fusion dance. As with James Young and the wing depth spot, there’s some hope among fans that Jordan Mickey could fill the long term need. Jonas Jerebko’s versatility does help on this front already, but his contract is of a convenient size in trades so if he were moved on, Danny Ainge would want to find a new multi-skilled big man or the rotation options could suffer.

Draft Assets

It’s no secret that the team has “too many” draft picks. Based on current standings, they’ll have three first round picks and five second round picks. This draft is expected to be very deep in “stashable” foreign prospects but unless the plan is to try to win EuroBasket I don’t think that’s a viable path for more than a couple of the picks.

Excess picks don’t have to be traded before the deadline as they can be moved any time between the end of the season and the draft, or the drafted player can be traded during the following league year. In terms of expected value it’s not a good idea to trade, for example, 19 and 21 for 15, but that type of thing can probably be done as a last resort.

If I had to rank the value of the Celtics’ draft assets that could be discussed in trades it would be something like:

2017 Boston pick (w/ Brooklyn swap rights) 2016 Brooklyn pick 2018 Brooklyn pick Protected Memphis pick (likely 2019) 2016 Boston pick Protected Dallas pick (almost definitely 2016) Convertible Minnesota pick (will become 2016 and 2017 2nds) 2016 Philadelphia 2nd

Deadline Goals

The Celtics have the benefit of being able to go in really any direction at the deadline. If there’s an opportunity to buy a blue-chipper they’ll be near the front of the queue. If a crazy seller’s market develops the team has a bright enough future (and a low enough ceiling this year) to jump in and trade a piece away. Most critically, because of the team’s age profile and draft stock, they could simply sit tight and let the team’s current track play out into the offseason. At some point every team does find themselves at a crossroads where changes must be made and in those moments are usually left to gamble on some longer odds. The Celtics are definitely not in that position. That being said, I would define their goals for the next two weeks as:

Be in the conversation for any star player made available

Stay below the luxury tax unless a star player is added

Do not add significant salary past this season if it’s not for a star player

Acquire a backup wing on a short or low money contract

Consolidate fringe young players and non-Brooklyn picks into a single asset of greater utility

Move on from at least one player who you do not expect to return next season

Don’t do anything silly

Not all of these can or will be met together but I think they give a good framework for thinking through the Celtics’ trade deadline plays.

Check out Part 2 for a look at each player on the current roster and then Part 3 next week for how those players could be used to meet these goals.

This is my first post here at Celtics Hub. In the future I plan to go more in depth on specific team topics so if there’s a subject that you’re particularly interested in drop a comment below.