Eskom released a statement saying there is no expected load shedding on Friday 20 December 2019.

However, there’s a catch. The system is still said to be highly vulnerable and could give out at any moment.

Eskom’s deputy spokesperson, Dikatso Mothae said that they expect no load shedding but it does not mean that the system is guaranteed to remain stable.

Eskom’s unplanned breakdowns

Electrical engineer and publisher, Chris Yelland said on Friday 20 December that Eskom must be very close to load shedding.

Interpreted from Eskom’s statement, Yelland said the following:

“Unplanned breakdowns (UCLF) are at 13154 MW as at 06:30 this morning. Eskom must be very close to load shedding with this high level of unplanned breakdowns.”

“I am advised that electricity demand is around 27 GW, some 2 GW higher than expected at this time of year,” he added.

According to Eskom, large-scale power plants’ capacity is often explained in gigawatts (GW). A GW is one bn watts or 1 000 MW.

Eskom says: "Unplanned breakdowns (UCLF) are at 13154 MW as at 06:30 this morning".



Eskom must be very close to loadshedding with this high level of unplanned breakdowns.



I am advised that electricity demand is arround 27 GW, some 2 GW higher than expected at this time of year. — Chris Yelland (@chrisyelland) December 20, 2019

Eskom’s system appears vulnerable despite no load shedding

In Eskom’s statement, it was said that there is no load shedding expected for Friday, however, the level of UCLF is currently 3 654 over what it should be, in order for there to be no load shedding.

“Breakdowns (UCLF) are at 13 154MW as at 06:30 this morning. Our technical teams will continue to work over the holiday period to monitor the situation, carry out planned maintenance and to work at reducing unplanned breakdowns to below 9 500MW to enable us to minimise the possibility of load shedding,” said Eskom.

Mothae told TheSouthAfrican.com that the level is higher than what it should be but Eskom is still hoping for the best when saying there is no load shedding expected.

“We said there is no load shedding expected but it can happen at short notice,” she said.

“It is a very risky situation for us,” added Mothae.

Higher or lower demand over festive season

Yelland said that he was advised that the electricity demand is around 27 GW over the holiday season but that it is some 2 GW higher than expected this year.

When asked about Yelland’s comment, Mothae did say that he must have received his information from them.

However, the information does not coincide. According to Eskom’s statement, they said there would be no load shedding due to a drop in demand during this time and some generating units.

When Mothae was asked about the demand during the 2019 holiday season, she said: “Demand has dropped from last week by about 2000 MW and is in line with our forecasts for this time of year.”

“So some inaccuracies from Chris’s tweet,” said Mothae.

Yelland did not respond at the time of publication.

Eskom asks customers to reduce demand

Eskom said it will continue to use emergency reserves to supplement capacity if necessary over the festive period.

“We, however, remind customers that as the system continues to be vulnerable and unpredictable, the possibility of load shedding remains,” said Eskom.