Among the factors driving his disapproval ratings: voters assign mostly negative personality traits to Donald Trump. | Chris Kleponis -Pool/Getty Images POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL Poll: More than half will definitely vote against Trump

President Donald Trump delivers his second State of the Union address on Tuesday night at a moment of major political peril.

A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted in the run-up to the speech shows a majority of voters, 52 percent, say they would definitely vote for someone other than Trump if the 2020 election was held today — up from 47 percent last week — with another 6 percent saying they would probably vote against him.


Just more than one-in-four voters, 26 percent, say they would definitely vote to reelect Trump, and another 10 percent say they would probably vote for him.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll finds the president’s approval rating at 41 percent. Since the start of this year — when the news was dominated by the government shutdown over Trump’s planned border wall — his approval rating has hovered around 40 percent.

A majority of voters, 56 percent, disapprove of the job Trump is doing, including 44 percent who “strongly disapprove,” roughly twice the 23 percent who “strongly approve.”

Most Republicans, 82 percent, approve of the job Trump is doing, while only 15 percent disapprove. But more Democrats, 88 percent, disapprove of Trump — and his approval rating among self-identified independents is 34 percent, while 58 percent disapprove.

Among the factors driving his disapproval ratings: voters assign mostly negative personality traits to Trump. Asked whether he’s “sexist,” a 56 percent majority agree. Another 51 percent say Trump is “racist.”

Just over half, 51 percent, say they don’t agree that Trump “keeps his promises,” while 41 percent agree that Trump has lived up to his promises. Only 36 percent say they agree that Trump is “honest” — the same percentage who agree that Trump “cares about people like me.”

Trump’s second State of the Union address presents him with an opportunity to reset following the shutdown and sell Americans on a border wall, with the government poised again to run out of money in 10 days.

But compared with other issues, voters don’t want to hear more about the wall from Trump on Tuesday night, according to the poll. More than six-in-10 voters, 61 percent, say it’s “very important” for Trump to talk about his plans for improving the health care system. Sixty percent say it’s “very important” for Trump to talk about the economy.

By comparison, only a third say it’s “very important” for Trump to talk about a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Nearly half say it’s either “not too important” or “not important at all.”

"Despite sharp debate around border wall funding, voters prefer President Trump not to discuss the issue during his State of The Union address," said Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult's vice president.

The poll was conducted February 1-2, surveying 1,993 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: https://politi.co/2SmYZoZ | Crosstabs: https://politi.co/2SpcSTz