We are in the opening mile of the marathon that is fantasy baseball, and every analyst is telling owners to avoid overreacting to the small sample sizes that have been produced thus far. And although a patient approach is generally the best one, there are some advanced stats that already deserve recognition.

Chris Sale (92.2 mph)

Sale averaged just 92.2 mph on his fastball while being knocked around for seven runs on five extra-base hits (three homers) across three innings in Seattle. The left-hander dealt with diminished velocity after experiencing shoulder problems late last year, making his poor radar gun readings on Thursday (he averaged 94.5 mph on his fastball across 2017-18) a major cause for concern.

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Sale owners should be happy to swap the southpaw for Justin Verlander and could lower their expectations to someone such as Gerrit Cole or Trevor Bauer.

Zack Greinke (88.5 mph)

Sale’s velocity troubles overshadowed those of Greinke, who averaged 88.5 mph with his fastball en route to allowing seven runs (four homers) across 3.2 innings. The right-hander’s average fastball velocity was 91.0 mph as recently as 2017 before taking a downturn last year. It seems as though at least one veteran pitcher falls off the fantasy cliff each year, and my guess is that Greinke is that guy in ’19.

Matt Boyd (10:1 K:BB ratio)

Owners who targeted Boyd as a late-round sleeper shouldn’t be discouraged by the southpaw surrendering four runs (three earned) across six innings in Toronto. He dominated the strike zone and gave up all four runs in the fourth inning when his only walk of the evening was followed by a handful of perfectly placed hits. Boyd will soon be added in many of the 61 percent of Yahoo leagues in which remains unowned.

Madison Bumgarner (9:1 K:BB ratio)

Bumgarner averaged 91.3 mph on his fastball on Friday, which comparably favorably to his marks in each of the previous three seasons. He also used his fastball less often and relied heavily on his slider en route to holding an improved Padres lineup to two runs across seven innings.

Madison Bumgarner showed encouraging signs in his first start of the season. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull) More

Although run support could be the bane of MadBum’s existence, the workhorse dominated the strike zone well enough to suggest he could be a No. 2 starter in mixed leagues.

Robbie Ray (9:5 K:BB ratio)

Owners who are expecting Ray to turn things around this year must have been disappointed to see him compile five walks in his initial 2019 start. Sure, he was facing a tough Dodgers lineup, but the left-hander struggled mightily with his control (5.1 BB/9 rate) while posting a 1.35 WHIP last season. Owners are being overly optimistic if they expect Ray to end his run of maddening inconsistency.

Joc Pederson (42.0 percent hard-contact rate)

Pederson (owned in just 43 percent of Yahoo leagues) has already produced three homers and seven runs scored. He should sit against lefties (against whom he owns a lifetime .581 OPS), but his hard-hitting nature (42.0 percent hard-contact rate, 43.6 percent fly ball rate in 2018) makes him an attractive option for those in leagues with daily transactions.

Whit Merrifield (100 SB%)

A few hours after Trea Turner (three swipes) stole the show on Opening Day, Merrifield quietly went 2-for-2 on steals against the White Sox. And although the sample size is exceedingly small, the 30 year old’s immediate aggressiveness on the base paths should validate those who nabbed him with pick-35 (on average) in Yahoo drafts. A lack of name value and membership on an also-ran team will keep Merrifield from being recognized as a true fantasy stud, but a second straight season as a top-15 hitter seems very possible.

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