As a democracy, the United States has required the support of the general population for success since its birth. Since 2010, some new attempts at democratic government have sprung into existence through what's referred to as the “Arab Spring.” Yet because of their turbulent starts and limited public support, many have wondered about the fate and success of those nations. Is it possible that popular support for these new governments will grow over time?

In order to answer that question, two researchers from Frankfurt's Goethe University have recently investigated what drives support for democracy. They explored 380,000 individual-level observations from 104 countries over the years of 1994 to 2013. In their study, the researchers were able to control for improvements or deterioration in the general state of the country through a number of measures; this let them separate support for democracy from support for the general progress of a nation.

To specifically target emerging democracies, they based their analysis on two different data sets. The first data set covered both developed and less-developed countries across the world. The second set focused on African countries, because many of these nations are transitioning to democratic systems. In their analysis, the scientists identified periods of democratic rule for each nation. They next quantified the total time spent as a democracy. Finally, they calculated the amount of time each individual spent under democratic rule.

The researchers found that the more time individuals spent under democratic rule, the more they supported the democracy. Estimates imply that spending 8.5 years living in a democracy will result in increased levels of support for the system that match the type of increase typically associated with going from primary to secondary education. Overall, newer democracies need time for popular support to develop.

These studies suggest that political preferences are actually shaped by a political system itself. This is an interesting and important finding for both developing and established democracies. In the case of emerging democracies, this suggests that popular support will develop over time, perhaps in a decade or so. For established democracies, this suggests that popular support for—and subsequent implementation of—major political reforms may be difficult to achieve.

Science, 2014. DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa0880 (About DOIs).