I wrote this article last year for Le’Veon Bell. Luckily, it paid off and made me look like I knew what I was talking about. I’m hoping to ride the momentum into this season, but this time with a different player in mind. My 2015 edition will feature an argument for why I think CJ Anderson is a legitimate top 5 pick, even though he currently isn’t being valued as such. I wrote this article last year for Le’Veon Bell. Luckily, it paid off and made me look like I knew what I was talking about. I’m hoping to ride the momentum into this season, but this time with a different player in mind. My 2015 edition will feature an argument for why I think CJ Anderson is a legitimate top 5 pick, even though he currently isn’t being valued as such.

Let’s start by looking at CJ’s 2014 season. It’s easy to look at the final numbers on the season and be…somewhat underwhelmed. 179 carries, 849 yards, 34 receptions, 324 yards. Those are admittedly middling numbers. Look closer, however, and you will find he finished 11th in fantasy points for RBs and 9th in points per game. So that leaves me saying, “Yes, he had an overall good season, but not a great season.” Let’s start by looking at CJ’s 2014 season. It’s easy to look at the final numbers on the season and be…somewhat underwhelmed. 179 carries, 849 yards, 34 receptions, 324 yards. Those are admittedly middling numbers. Look closer, however, and you will find he finished 11in fantasy points for RBs and 9in points per game. So that leaves me saying, “Yes, he had an overall good season, but not a great season.”

But that is leaving out the most important factor. Anderson didn’t begin the year as the starter. In fact, he actually didn’t become the starter until week 10. So it seems far more important to evaluate how did in half a season as a starter, and see if we can extrapolate that into a whole season. Its hard to have context for what “good” is comparatively on an 8 week scale, so I will give you his average per-game stats as a starter, along with their league rank: 20.25 rushes (3rd), 95.9 rushing yards (2nd), 3.75 receptions (T-5th), 36.25 receiving yards (3rd). Now, let’s scale that out to a whole season of usage, since those numbers only account for half a season: 324 rushes (2nd), 1,534 rushing yards (2nd), 16 rushing TDs (1st), 60 receptions (4th), 580 yards (3rd), 4 receiving TDs (T-4th). So it is safe to say two things: 1 – that would have been a hell of a season, 2 – Anderson is absolutely a complete all-around back. The only 2 RBs who were in or near the top 5 in all of these categories were Le’Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray. And it isn’t like these numbers are extremely skewed – I didn’t take his best 2 game stretch and extrapolate that over a whole season. I took half a season and doubled it. That means we included some less than stellar games, including his first two games as a “starter” where he was getting eased in and got 13 carries and 9 carries, respectively. . Anderson didn’t begin the year as the starter. In fact, he actually didn’t become the starter until week 10. So it seems far more important to evaluate how did in half a season as a starter, and see if we can extrapolate that into a whole season. Its hard to have context for what “good” is comparatively on an 8 week scale, so I will give you his average per-game stats as a starter, along with their league rank: 20.25 rushes (3), 95.9 rushing yards (2), 3.75 receptions (T-5), 36.25 receiving yards (3). Now, let’s scale that out to a whole season of usage, since those numbers only account for half a season: 324 rushes (2), 1,534 rushing yards (2), 16 rushing TDs (1), 60 receptions (4), 580 yards (3), 4 receiving TDs (T-4). So it is safe to say two things: 1 – that would have been a hell of a season, 2 – Anderson is absolutely a complete all-around back. The only 2 RBs who were in or near the top 5 in all of these categories were Le’Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray. And it isn’t like these numbers areskewed – I didn’t take his best 2 game stretch and extrapolate that over a whole season. I took half a season and doubled it. That means we included some less than stellar games, including his first two games as a “starter” where he was getting eased in and got 13 carries and 9 carries, respectively.

nd best running back in that time period, a full 2.6 points-per-game ahead of Eddie Lacy and 3 points-per-game ahead of DeMarco Murray. In fact, this was good for 3rd place in all of fantasy football for that time period, behind only Aaron Rodgers and Le’Veon Bell. In using the season totals listed in the above paragraph, Anderson would have scored 331.4 total fantasy points on the season (if he played all 16 games). This would have easily made him the highest scoring running back in fantasy, as he would have surpassed DeMarco Murray by a whopping 37.3 points. But, I know you don’t care about the real stats – you care about the fantasy stats. The weeks that CJ Anderson was a starter, weeks 10-17, he averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game (I did per-game points instead of total points to account for bye weeks). This was good for the 2best running back in that time period, a full 2.6 points-per-game ahead of Eddie Lacy and 3 points-per-game ahead of DeMarco Murray. In fact, this was good for 3place in all of fantasy football for that time period, behind only Aaron Rodgers and Le’Veon Bell. In using the season totals listed in the above paragraph, Anderson would have scored 331.4 total fantasy points on the season (if he played all 16 games). This would have easily made him the highest scoring running back in fantasy, as he would have surpassed DeMarco Murray by a whopping 37.3 points.

He could have dropped his pace by 12 points per game of the other 8 games and still finished as tied for the number 5 RB. Or, he could have maintained his 8 game pace for 4 more games, then sat out the last 4 games, and still finished as the number 4 RB. That is astonishing. So what does that mean? It means that it isn’t a stretch to say that if he had played 16 games as a starter last season he would have been in the highest scoring fantasy running back, or at least very much in the mix. We have stats for 8 games, or half a season, so we can only speculate how well the other 8 games would have gone. Would he have maintained his stellar pace? Maybe, maybe not, but even if he had dropped his scoring pace by 4 points-per-game in those other 8 games, he still would have finished as the highest scoring running back.That is astonishing.

now, and he knows his/Manning’s window is closing fast. He will do whatever it takes to win, and if Anderson is the best back on the roster (he is) and gives them the best chance of winning and winning now (he does), then he will likely be giving him all the touches he can handle. On top of that, his 30 receptions over the last 8 games last year also show that he is a very good receiving back, and thus will be able to play on all 3 downs and in any game situation. Now we ask, why aren’t people drafting him as a top 5 running back? It seems like there has to be some kind of red flag, right? Well, maybe they are afraid of a system change. That seems valid, but from everything I have read, he seems to be the perfect fit in Kubiak’s scheme. That scheme has lead to Kubiak’s yearly leading rusher (both as OC and HC) averaging 17.6 carries per game, and well over 20 carries per game when he has had a true lead back (e.g., Arian Foster). His teams have also yielded a 1,200-yard rusher in 7-of-11 years, so his system certainly seems to allow RBs to thrive. Maybe people are afraid of a declining Manning? This would just be ridiculous. Is Manning declining? Yes. Is Manning still more than capable of tearing up a defense that doesn’t respect the pass? Absolutely. Seeing constantly stacked boxes isn’t something Anderson will have to worry about. Maybe they are worried about a healthy Montee Ball usurping carries from Anderson. I would be worried about this if Ball had shown game breaking ability in his time last season, but other than having a couple good games his rookie year, he has proven to be a solid backup-type talent, not someone who will steal carries from a stud. On top of that, Kubiak was hired to win, and he knows his/Manning’s window is closing fast. He will do whatever it takes to win, and if Anderson is the best back on the roster (he is) and gives them the best chance of winning and winning now (he does), then he will likely be giving him all the touches he can handle. On top of that, his 30 receptions over the last 8 games last year also show that he is a very good receiving back, and thus will be able to play on all 3 downs and in any game situation.

only excuse I can see for dropping him down a peg or two is the injury to Ryan Clady and the turnover on the rest of the offensive line. That is definitely a valid concern, and if you drop him a couple spots for that, I would understand. My counter-argument, however, is once again Peyton Manning. Experts have always said that he has the ability to mask a poor offensive line with his ability to diagnose the defense and adjust accordingly, as well as his quick release. Manning uses these same skills to keep defenses honest against then run, so as I said before, Anderson shouldn’t have to worry about facing stacked boxes. Manning has started 16 seasons in the NFL, with varying levels of talent at RB and vary levels of blocking in front of him. His leading rushers in those 16 seasons have averaged 17.8 carries per game and 4.2 yards per carry. When you are keeping defenses as honest as he does, you are bound to have successful rushers, regardless of the talent/make-up of the offensive line in front of you. Also, Anderson’s longest run of the season last year was 27 yards. This means he isn’t someone who relies on getting the homerun play to turn in good stats (think Chris Johnson circa 2013), rather he is reliant on consistently getting good, short (4-5 yard) gains. When you are facing a soft box more often than not, that makes getting consistent gaines a much easier task. In fact, theexcuse I can see for dropping him down a peg or two is the injury to Ryan Clady and the turnover on the rest of the offensive line. That is definitely a valid concern, and if you drop him a couple spots for that, I would understand. My counter-argument, however, is once again Peyton Manning. Experts have always said that he has the ability to mask a poor offensive line with his ability to diagnose the defense and adjust accordingly, as well as his quick release. Manning uses these same skills to keep defenses honest against then run, so as I said before, Anderson shouldn’t have to worry about facing stacked boxes. Manning has started 16 seasons in the NFL, with varying levels of talent at RB and vary levels of blocking in front of him. His leading rushers in those 16 seasons have averaged 17.8 carries per game and 4.2 yards per carry. When you are keeping defenses as honest as he does, you are bound to have successful rushers, regardless of the talent/make-up of the offensive line in front of you. Also, Anderson’s longest run of the season last year was 27 yards. This means he isn’t someone who relies on getting the homerun play to turn in good stats (think Chris Johnson circa 2013), rather he is reliant on consistently getting good, short (4-5 yard) gains. When you are facing a soft box more often than not, that makes getting consistent gaines a much easier task.

Matt Forte has over 1,800 career carries/is coming off a season in which he averaged 3.9 yards per carry/has a new coaching staff/lost his OC who was feeding him 100 passes a season, and DeMarco Murray is on a new team/has tons of backfield competition for touches/is coming off a season where he had 449 touches. Anderson has essentially none of these concerns, and, judging by last year’s performance, he has a ceiling as high or higher than any of them. If last year’s stats are even close to a projection for this season, Anderson may have the ability to lead all RBs in fantasy scoring, and he certainly has the ability to be in the top 5. The bottom line is this, CJ Anderson is dropping to the second round in 10 team leagues and is getting absolutely no talk at all as a possible top 5 pick. He is currently going behind/around RBs who carry more risk and have an equal or lower ceiling. Marshawn Lynch has over 2,00 career carries, Arian Foster has only played 21 out of 32 games in the last two seasons,Matt Forte has over 1,800 career carries/is coming off a season in which he averaged 3.9 yards per carry/has a new coaching staff/lost his OC who was feeding him 100 passes a season, and DeMarco Murray is on a new team/has tons of backfield competition for touches/is coming off a season where he had 449 touches. Anderson has essentially none of these concerns, and, judging by last year’s performance, he has a ceiling as high or higher than any of them. If last year’s stats are even close to a projection for this season, Anderson may have the ability to lead all RBs in fantasy scoring, and he certainly has the ability to be in the top 5.

If you are one of those owners who are scared by the fact that his sample size isn’t big enough and you don’t want to take a risk in your draft, I understand. You could be drafting this year’s version of Andre Ellington. I think, however, it is far more likely you are drafting this year’s version of Le’Veon Bell (maybe to a slightly lesser extent, Bell is a monster). At the very least, I think Anderson deserves to be mentioned with the upper echelon of fantasy RBs in drafts this year.





StatNerd out,

Eric M.

@ericmcdonald7