Natural gas from the tri-state region of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will constitute 45% of U.S. production by 2040, up from 31% this year, according to an IHS study.

The production of the highly lucrative natural gas liquids ethane, propane, and butane (LPG) is expected to nearly double in the same period, accounting for 19% of the nation’s total by 2040, up from 14% in 2018, the study shows.

The Marcellus and Utica shale formations are among the largest sources of natural gas and natural gas liquids in the world, and their production will increase exponentially in the next two decades, according to an IHS study released at the World Petrochemical Conference in San Antonio, Texas.

“Research continues to drive home the myriad economic advantages for manufacturers in the Shale Crescent region when compared to other, more traditionally accepted energy and chemical hubs,” said Wally Kandel, spokesperson for Shale Crescent USA. “Investors are catching on that the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations offer unprecedented benefits. There are few other places in the world, if any, where the supply, manufacturing facilities, and end users are all in close proximity.”

The IHS study, commissioned by Shale Crescent USA and JobsOhio, quantifies for the first time the anticipated development and production growth emerging from one of the world’s most prolific sources of natural gas and natural gas liquids. In 2018, an IHS study evaluated the prospects for a world-scale ethylene and polyethylene plant based on ethane feedstock in the Shale Crescent USA region.

The study found that by 2020, cost advantages for the production of various natural gas liquids in the Midwest versus the Gulf Coast are expected to range from 6% to 26%. The savings are impacting petrochemical company expansion plans.

“In addition to the significant cost advantages, the Shale Crescent has the benefit of being located in an area of the country rarely impacted by extreme weather,” Saucier said. “Investors are taking notice.”

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