By Adnan Khan

This last week has seen a flurry of statements pointing towards the end of the Syrian conflict. This was in parallel to the al-Assad regime braking the years long siege of Deir ez-Zor. Commenting in the lead-up to ceasefire talks in Kazakhstan, UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura said it’s time for the rebel forces to recognize that they didn’t win the six and a half year long Syrian War. “For the opposition, the message is very clear: if they were planning to win the war, facts are proving that is not the case. So now it’s time to win the peace.”[1] The former US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, also weighed in, President Bashar al-Assad has “won” the brutal conflict, will probably stay in power and may never be held accountable for the crimes committed by his regime.[2] Robert Fisk the British journalist wrote in the independent: “The West might hardly believe it, but it now seems the Syrian war is ending – and Assad is the victor.”[3] A closer examination of events reveals the rebels may be down, but they are not out.

The fall of Aleppo in January 2017 remains the biggest victory Bashar al-Assad achieved since the uprising began and the heaviest blow it has dealt the rebel groups. The people of Aleppo and the rebel groups who held out in Syria’s largest city were abandoned by Turkey in their most critical hour, despite previously giving them weapons. Aleppo’s surrender took place with a truce which required all the fighters and their families leaving Aleppo for Idlib. With the months long siege fighters and residents of Aleppo had no choice but to accept the terms, especially since Turkey had abandoned them. Since the surrender Idlib remained the only area with a concentration of rebel fighters. In April 2017 al-Assad reminded the rebels groups of what their fate will likely be, at least 58 people were killed in a nerve-gas attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province.[4]

Bashar al-Assad forces are considered to control over 60% of Syria’s territory, the most he has ever held, but despite western actors using this as a basis to argue al-Assad has won and should remain the reality on the ground is much different. Despite the Ba’athist regime running a police state for decades, the rebels proved the regime and its armed forces were hollow. Once the people took to the streets and challenged the regime and its security apparatus, and despite al-Assad loyalists resorting to brutal tactics, the rebels were able to overstretch them which severely handicapped their effectiveness. Through attacking regime supply lines al-Assad was forced to give up much of the country. Whilst the victory in Aleppo has tilted the balance in al-Assad’s favour the fact remains that the regime in Damascus lacks the manpower to win the whole country. Since the fall of Aleppo a new phase of the conflict began, this where were the regime attempted to consolidate its gains. Much of the fighting since the fall of Aleppo has been between the Kurdish SDF forces and ISIS in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. The Syrian military has faced desertions, deaths and major losses and this was why it needs Iranian and Russian help. It has absolutely no capability to police the towns and cities it claims to have won. In many ways, the Syrian regime has destroyed itself in attempting to win.

One way the regime is attempting to address this reality can be seen in the memorandum signed in May 2017 between Russia, Iran, Turkey and some rebel factions.[5] At the Fourth Astana conference ‘safe zones’ were agreed which were to become ‘non-conflict’ zones and along the borders of this zones checkpoints would be constructed to ensure free movement of unarmed civilians, humanitarian aid access and the continuation of economic activities. All these zones would be policed and governed by Iran, Turkey and Russia. From this it can be seen the Syrian regime will be unable to consolidate its position across the country, which could lead to the regime to get engaged in guerrilla attacks, something the rebels have been highly proficient at. This is why the regional and international powers plan to manage these areas to ensure a peace and political settlement they have forced upon the Syrian people will be maintained.

The comments of the UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura, that’s it’s time for the rebel forces to recognize that they didn’t win the six and a half year long Syrian War, is an attempt to implement his much failed political solution. Essentially, this consists of the people of Syria and the rebel groups accepting the regime in Damascus and entering into a coalition government with it. The political solution under its various guises of Geneva, Astana and Riyadh are to completely end the uprising and maintain the regime in Damascus. But in all its guises it has never included the majority of rebel groups and this is why the talks usually failed. The rebel fighters on the whole have not accepted the political solution and no political solution will ever work unless the people and rebel fighters accept its terms. After half a decade of providing cover for the regime the world has failed in imposing a political solution on the people of Syria.

The comments by cialis achat all about the beginning of the end of the uprising in Syria are premature and belies the ground realities, where the regime has no capability to enforce its writ over the country’s towns and cities. Bashar al-Assad long lost the heart and minds of the masses and any victory for him will never change this.

[1] https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-un/syrian-opposition-must-accept-it-has-not-won-the-war-u-n-says-idUKKCN1BH1MM [2] http://www.theweek.co.uk/syrian-civil-war/88268/syria-s-civil-war-is-over-and-assad-has-won-says-the-un [3] http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syrian-war-ending-bashar-al-assad-won-robert-fisk-syria-middle-east-israel-british-troops-a7933966.html [4] http://www.dw.com/en/sarin-used-in-syria-attack-says-opcw-chemical-weapons-watchdog/a-39486606 [5] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39888644