It's time to check in on another 2015 Leafs draft pick! My post on Mitch Marner starts with a bit of an introduction to my goals for these posts, as well as an explanation of my qualifications (spoiler alert: I don't have any). If you haven't already done so, give that article a read (if you are really opposed to reading about Mitch Marner for some reason, just read the first four paragraphs) and then head back here.

Today we'll be looking at the Leafs' 5th-round pick, Swedish-Ukrainian forward Dmytro Timashov. Timashov was generally regarded as a steal on draft day, and his play this season in both the QMJHL and the World Junior Championship has made his draft position seem even more surprising.

Timashov ranked 21st on PPP's Top 25 Under 25 list before the season started. Also, if you haven't read this Maple Leafs Hot Stove article by Not Norm Ullman, you should do that first, if only so you know what the hell a "Nitro Mysteron" is.

Timashov had a promising draft season and is having a very good draft+1 season so far. But does he look like NHL material? Let's find out!

Note: Stats in this article do not include games played yesterday (Feb. 5). Timashov did not play yesterday so his stats are up to date. Also, there is a discrepancy between theqmjhl.ca, who has Timashov at 19 goals and 53 assists, and prospect-stats.com, who has him at 20 goals and 52 assists. I'll be using the prospect-stats.com numbers here because I noticed the discrepancy right before posting, and recalculating all the data I got from prospect-stats.com would be way too much work. Sorry!

Dmytro Timashov vs History!

Let's start by seeing how Timashov's scoring rate compares with other draft+1 seasons in the QMJHL from the previous six seasons (2009-10 through 2014-15):

Name Season GP G A P P/GP Draft Pos Jonathan Drouin 2013 46 29 79 108 2.35 1 (3) Anthony Mantha 2013 57 57 63 120 2.11 1 (20) Nikolaj Ehlers 2014 51 37 63 100 1.96 1 (9) Jonathan Huberdeau 2011 37 30 42 72 1.95 1 (3) Conor Garland 2014 67 35 94 129 1.93 5 (123) Dmytro Timashov 2015 40 20 52 72 1.8 5 (125) Anthony Duclair 2013 59 50 49 99 1.68 3 (80) Ivan Barbashyov 2014 57 45 50 95 1.67 2 (33) Mikhail Grigorenko 2012 33 30 24 54 1.64 1 (12) Gabriel Dumont 2009 62 51 42 93 1.5 5 (139) Martin Frk 2012 56 35 49 84 1.5 2 (49) Martin Réway 2013 43 20 42 62 1.44 4 (116) Tomas Jurco 2011 48 30 38 68 1.42 2 (35) Jean-Gabriel Pageau 2011 46 32 33 65 1.41 4 (96) Nick Sörensen 2013 44 31 30 61 1.39 2 (45) Émile Poirier 2013 63 43 44 87 1.38 1 (22)

Stats in this table are from eliteprospects.com

Timashov's scoring pace this season puts him ahead of guys like Anthony Duclair, Mikhail Grigorenko, and Tomas Jurco, but behind the top-tier players like Drouin, Mantha, and Ehlers. You'll notice that most of the guys ahead of him were selected in the first round, with the exception of Conor Garland. Garland is an interesting case because he was not drafted in his first year of eligibility, and ended up being selected just 2 spots ahead of Timashov in the 2015 draft, after he put up his 1.93 P/GP season. If you're wondering how a guy who put up elite scoring numbers in his draft+1 season slipped all the way to 123rd overall, it likely has a lot to do with the fact that he's 5'8" and 163 lbs.

Which brings us to the matter of size. Timashov is another "undersized" prospect in the Leafs' system, standing either 5'9" (according to theqmjhl.ca) or 5'10" (according to pretty much every other place I've checked). I discussed the height issue in my post on Jeremy Bracco and determined that Bracco's draft+1 scoring pace is quite good compared to other short (below 5'10") players who made the NHL. Timashov is scoring at a better rate than Bracco (albeit in a different league) and is either the same height or an inch taller, so there doesn't seem to be much to worry about there.

Furthermore, Timashov is quite heavy for his height. The QMJHL website lists him at 189 lbs, Elite Prospects has him at 187, and Hockey DB has him at 192. Here are some current NHL players who are 5'9" or 5'10" and weigh 185 lbs or more:

Name Height Weight Michael Cammalleri 5'9" 185 John-Michael Liles 5'10" 185 Kyle Palmieri 5'10" 185 Tomas Tatar 5'10" 185 Ryan Callahan 5'10" 186 Torey Krug 5'9" 186 Mathieu Perreault 5'10" 188 Zac Rinaldo 5'10" 188 Tyson Barrie 5'10" 190 Jaden Schwartz 5'10" 190 Seth Griffith 5'9" 191 Brian Campbell 5'10" 192 Max Domi 5'10" 198 Rich Clune 5'10" 207

Stats in this table are from NHL.com

That isn't an exhaustive list, but I think it does a decent job of showing that putting on some weight goes a long way toward making up for a lack of height. Also, bear in mind that Timashov is only 19 years old, so while he probably won't do much more growing vertically, he shouldn't have much trouble adding more weight. If he can get his weight up to Max Domi territory, it'll be hard to see his size as much of a detriment.

Dmytro Timashov vs The Present!

Now let's see how Timashov's season compares to other draft+1 players in the Q this year. (If you're wondering why Conor Garland isn't included in this section when he was drafted just before Timashov, it's because he was drafted in his second year of eligibility, so he's technically in his draft+2 season now).

We'll start with good ol' reliable points per game:

Name Age GP G 1A 2A P Sh Sh% P/GP Dmytro Timashov 18.956 40 20 34 18 72 95 21.053 1.8 Anthony Beauvillier 18.271 30 24 14 13 51 154 15.584 1.7 Anthony Richard 18.737 48 34 28 13 75 207 16.425 1.563 Evgeny Svechnikov 18.874 35 22 17 15 54 116 18.966 1.543 Timo Meier 18.937 34 19 20 11 50 205 9.268 1.471 Nicolas Roy 18.608 45 32 20 13 65 185 17.297 1.444 Daniel Sprong 18.499 16 9 9 5 23 79 11.392 1.438 Alex Barre-Boulet 18.321 48 28 28 13 69 146 19.178 1.438 Dennis Yan 18.422 44 28 13 18 59 135 20.741 1.341 Manuel Wiederer 18.816 39 22 14 15 51 113 19.469 1.308

Stats in this section are from prospect-stats.com

Timashov's scoring rate is the best out of all draft+1 players in the QMJHL right now. His shooting percentage is quite high for someone who isn't known as an especially good shooter, so that is probably inflating his point production a bit. It's possible that he just doesn't shoot unless he thinks he has a very good chance of scoring, but there's almost certainly a decent helping of luck there as well.

Onward to primary points (goals + primary assists) per game:

Name Age GP G 1A Prim. P Prim. P/GP Dmytro Timashov 18.956 40 20 34 54 1.35 Anthony Richard 18.737 48 34 28 62 1.292 Anthony Beauvillier 18.271 30 24 14 38 1.267 Alex Barre-Boulet 18.321 48 28 28 56 1.167 Nicolas Roy 18.608 45 32 20 52 1.156 Timo Meier 18.937 34 19 20 39 1.147 Daniel Sprong 18.499 16 9 9 18 1.125 Evgeny Svechnikov 18.874 35 22 17 39 1.114 Mathieu Joseph 18.597 45 25 17 42 0.933 Dennis Yan 18.422 44 28 13 41 0.932

Timashov continues to lead his draft class even if we remove secondary assists from the mix. His reputation as a playmaker seems to be supported by his primary assist production. In fact, let's take a quick look at how his primary assist production compares to his peers:

Name Age GP 1A 1A/GP Dmytro Timashov 18.956 40 34 0.85 Kay Schweri 18.715 20 12 0.6 Timo Meier 18.937 34 20 0.588 Alex Barre-Boulet 18.321 48 28 0.583 Anthony Richard 18.737 48 28 0.583 Daniel Sprong 18.499 16 9 0.563 Dylan Montcalm 18.97 49 24 0.49 Evgeny Svechnikov 18.874 35 17 0.486 Anthony Beauvillier 18.271 30 14 0.467 Filip Chlapik 18.285 35 16 0.457

Timashov is pretty thoroughly outpacing his peers in primary assists. For comparison, Mitch Marner's production rate in the OHL is 0.892 1A/GP, and Jeremy Bracco's is 0.611 1A/GP. As we saw in the Marner article, a good chunk of his points are produced on the power play, so his even strength numbers don't look quite as good. Is that the case for Dmytro?

Name GP ES G ES 1A ES 2A ES Prim. P ES P ES Prim. P/GP ES P/GP Dmytro Timashov 40 18 23 8 41 49 1.025 1.225 Timo Meier 34 14 15 8 29 37 0.853 1.088 Daniel Sprong 16 6 7 0 13 13 0.813 0.813 Anthony Richard 48 21 14 6 35 41 0.729 0.854 Manuel Wiederer 39 15 12 9 27 36 0.692 0.923 Nicolas Roy 45 21 10 6 31 37 0.689 0.822 Evgeny Svechnikov 35 12 12 11 24 35 0.686 1 Anthony Beauvillier 30 15 5 5 20 25 0.667 0.833 Alex Barre-Boulet 48 19 13 5 32 37 0.667 0.771 Jean-Christophe Beaudin 40 14 12 11 26 37 0.65 0.925

The above table is sorted by ES Prim. P/GP, by which measure Timashov handily bests his peers. He's also well ahead if we sort by ES P/GP.

Just to make sure you understand how good Timashov's even strength scoring is, let's look at the 15 best ES Prim. P/GP rates among draft+1 players in the whole CHL this season:

Name League GP ES G ES 1A ES 2A ES Prim. P ES P ES Prim. P/GP ES P/GP Dmytro Timashov QMJHL 40 18 23 8 41 49 1.025 1.225 Dylan Strome OHL 35 17 16 10 33 43 0.943 1.229 Travis Konecny OHL 42 14 24 12 38 50 0.905 1.19 Timo Meier QMJHL 34 14 15 8 29 37 0.853 1.088 Daniel Sprong QMJHL 16 6 7 0 13 13 0.813 0.813 Mitchell Marner OHL 37 12 16 7 28 35 0.757 0.946 Anthony Richard QMJHL 48 21 14 6 35 41 0.729 0.854 Brayden Burke WHL 51 17 20 11 37 48 0.725 0.941 Jeremy Bracco OHL 36 13 13 6 26 32 0.722 0.889 Cameron Hebig WHL 43 17 14 5 31 36 0.721 0.837 Manuel Wiederer QMJHL 39 15 12 9 27 36 0.692 0.923 Nicolas Roy QMJHL 45 21 10 6 31 37 0.689 0.822 Evgeny Svechnikov QMJHL 35 12 12 11 24 35 0.686 1 Giorgio Estephan WHL 51 19 16 5 35 40 0.686 0.784 Zachary Senyshyn OHL 47 24 8 4 32 36 0.681 0.766

Scoring rates vary a bit between leagues, so take this information with a grain of salt. Scoring in the OHL is generally regarded to be more difficult than it is in the QMJHL (although the gap doesn't seem to be all that big) so Dylan Strome's production rate may actually be more impressive. Still, it's clear that Timashov's even strength production is elite. Not just "elite as far as 5th-round picks go," but legitimately elite.

Of course, we shouldn't forget that Timashov is rocking a shooting percentage of 21% this season, so his 18 even strength goals are probably a bit high. But if you were worried that he is, to quote Mr. MacKeen's MLHS article, "just another kid from the Q that racks up a million power-play points, but can't play worth a damn at five on five" then you can stop worrying now. He can play worth at least two damns at five on five. Possibly even three!

(Also, how cool is it that 3 of the top 10 players on that list are Leafs prospects? Pretty darned cool, I'd wager.)

But maybe Dmytro is just getting a crazy amount of ice time, and that's inflating his numbers?

Name GP eTOI eG/60 e1A/60 e2A/60 ePrim. P/60 eP/60 Dmytro Timashov 40 22.43 1.337 2.274 1.204 3.611 4.815 Anthony Richard 48 23.213 1.831 1.508 0.7 3.339 4.039 Anthony Beauvillier 30 23.828 2.014 1.175 1.091 3.19 4.281 Evgeny Svechnikov 35 21.536 1.751 1.353 1.194 3.104 4.298 Timo Meier 34 22.4 1.497 1.576 0.867 3.072 3.939 Dennis Yan 44 19.093 2 0.928 1.286 2.928 4.214 Alex Barre-Boulet 48 24.044 1.456 1.456 0.676 2.911 3.587 Nicolas Roy 45 24.499 1.742 1.088 0.708 2.83 3.538 Daniel Sprong 16 24.425 1.382 1.382 0.768 2.764 3.531 Manuel Wiederer 39 20.948 1.616 1.028 1.102 2.644 3.746 Martins Dzierkals 41 18.843 1.553 1.087 1.087 2.64 3.728

Nope! His eG/60 isn't amazing, but he makes up for it with an obscenely good e1A/60 which gives him both the best ePrim. P/60 and the best eP/60 in his draft class. Prospect-stats.com only has TOI estimates for all situations in the QMJHL and even strength in the OHL, so I can't directly compare Timashov's per-60 numbers to Marner's or Bracco's. Marner's ES ePrim. P/60 is currently 2.902 and Bracco's is 2.636; given that 76% of Timashov's primary points have been scored at even strength, I suspect his ES Prim. P/60 would hold up pretty well.

(You may have noticed that the per-60 table has 11 players instead of 10. That's so we can have an appearance by our pal Martins Dzierkals. Hi, Martins!)

So Timashov can score. But is he a horrible defensive liability? He has a +20 rating so far this season, including a +9 rating in his 29 games with the Quebec Remparts, who have a negative goal differential. That's encouraging, but +/- is not a very meaningful stat. Unfortunately we don't have Corsi or Fenwick stats available for the CHL, so we'll have to look at GF%. GF% has some of the same problems as +/- (most notably that it is affected heavily by save percentage and shooting percentage), but it's a bit more exact, it isn't affected so much by ice time, and the GF%Rel stat gives us a better idea of the individual player's contribution.

Ideally we want to see a GF% above 50% and a GF%Rel above 0.

Name GP ES GFoI ES GAoI ES GF% ES GF%Rel Alex Barre-Boulet 48 55 35 61.111 26.944 Jonathan Bourcier 50 44 23 65.672 23.495 Nicolas Roy 45 50 29 63.291 21.142 Timo Meier 34 38 23 62.295 20.25 Shawn Ouellette-St-Amant 42 54 15 78.261 19.928 Manuel Wiederer 39 51 29 63.75 15.833 Mathieu Joseph 45 52 29 64.198 15.326 Dmytro Timashov 40 58 35 62.366 14.033 Kay Schweri 20 22 11 66.667 12.319 Alex Dostie 39 39 21 65 11.825 Morgan Adams-Moisan 43 17 16 51.515 11.515 Kameron Kielly 31 22 19 53.659 11.085 Adam Marsh 37 31 21 59.615 10.042 Cameron Askew 50 51 37 57.955 9.932 Auguste Impose 33 21 20 51.22 9.695

And we do! Timashov's team scores 62% of the goals when he is on the ice, and just under 50% of the goals when he isn't on the ice. That's a pretty big difference! Of course, quality of teammates plays into this, since Timashov is generally on the ice with the other best players on his team. He's managed to maintain an impressive GF% on two different teams, though, so it doesn't seem unreasonable to say that when Timashov is on the ice, the puck is generally going in the right direction.

So the Leafs have a kid who has put up elite even strength scoring numbers and who sees a significant positive shift in his team's goals for percentage when he's on the ice. He's done this on two different teams this season, which is just his second season playing in North America. He's not very tall but already has an NHL-ready build. And he was a fifth-round pick. A fifth-round pick who is outscoring the 3 QMJHL forwards selected in the first round, the 4 picked in the second round, the 2 in the third round, and the 4 in the fourth round. He has a very high shooting percentage and he's one of the older players in his draft class, but he's clearly an excellent prospect.

From a results perspective this is very exciting, as the Leafs seem to have pulled off one of the biggest steals of the 2015 draft. From a process perspective, though, we maybe shouldn't be patting ourselves (or Leafs management) on the backs too much. The Leafs picked Andrew Nielsen, Martins Dzierkals, and Jesper Lindgren ahead of Timashov, which suggests either that they were very confident that Timashov wouldn't be picked before the 125th selection (which seems unlikely), or that they saw those three players as better prospects than Timashov. None of them were terrible picks, but I would certainly rather have Timashov than any of them.

Regardless, he's a Leafs prospect now, and that appears to be a very good thing.

Dmytro Timashov vs The Future!

Timashov was born in 1996, which means he will be eligible to play for the Marlies and/or Solar Bears next season. Leafs management will probably want him to work on his defensive game a bit, which would be difficult in the QMJHL where he can pretty much stickhandle circles around the offensive zone for as long as he wants. He also already has an ELC with the Leafs, so it seems pretty likely that he'll start next season on a pro team.

I know this post has been pretty effusive in its praise for Timashov, but it's important to remember that he's not a Drouin-level prospect (or Marner-level for a more Leafs-centric example). Based on his production so far, though, it looks like he has a good chance of suiting up for the Leafs on a regular basis in a few years.

Next time on Checking In On The Kids: I try to find something to say about the Leafs' 6th-round pick Stephen Desrocher.