Why Memphis will likely fire Tubby Smith

An hour before Tubby Smith first fielded questions about his job status at the pre-tournament press conference, members of the university’s governance and finance committee gathered at the University Center for a presentation on “the financial landscape of Memphis athletics.”

Memphis athletic director Tom Bowen made the presentation. At one point, he emphasized the importance of a better conference television deal. He directed the discussion over to Memphis president M. David Rudd to expand on the topic. Whereupon Rudd said that the television deal “won’t be dramatically different” and that the key to the financial future of the athletic department remains contributions and ticket sales.

So people can debate all they want about whether Tubby Smith “deserves” a third year at Memphis because his team improved from 19 wins to 21 wins and made it to the semifinals of the conference tournament. But that completely misses the point.

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If Smith is dismissed (and it certainly appears he will be) it won’t be because his team finished 105 in the RPI and 160 at KenPom.com. It won’t be because, in his second year on the job, Smith assembled a roster that was so unimpressive that — for perhaps the first time in program history — a Memphis coach is being lauded for finishing fifth in the conference. It won’t even be because Smith’s attorney decided to publicly eviscerate the university administrators and boosters who entrusted Smith with the job in the first place.

No, it will because Smith’s continuing presence is creating a financial crisis for the athletic department. It will be because of contributions and ticket sales.

You have doubtless heard that athletic department contributions were down $1.1 million, most of those contributions tied to basketball season-ticket sales. But those numbers were for the 2016-2017 financial year, before last season’s disastrous finish, before the mass exodus of Memphis players. I’d be stunned if contributions didn’t take an even more dramatic plunge before the 2017-2018 season.

Then there is the announced attendance, which was down from 9,622 Smith’s first year to 6,225 his second year. That’s another massive hit in the pocket book. It also means that Memphis almost certainly won’t be getting the $800,000 that is tied to the turnstile count under the FedExForum lease.

So what are we up to in lost revenue already? Two million a year? Three million? More?

All this at a university that doesn’t get an annual $30 million infusion of television money and consequently has to prop up the athletic department with nearly $16 million a year in direct support and student fees. That’s a small number, relative to the rest of the conference. But for an urban university with a mission that is considerably more important than fielding entertaining football and basketball teams, even that is hard to justify.

That’s why the comments of Smith’s attorney were so naive and even offensive. His client makes $3 million a year from the university. Smith is the highest-paid university employee by a wide margin. Yet he has no responsibility to put butts in the seats? No responsibility to help generate the support that could ultimately pay his salary and keep the university from dipping further into general funds?

It hasn’t exactly been a mystery that Smith feels this way. He’s been a public relations obstructionist since the day he arrived. But it was still remarkable to hear his attorney make it explicit. Smith is above doing things that might help Memphis out of its financial jam.

To which some of you might say: Sure, but that’s how Smith has always been. If Memphis wanted a promoter or a recruiter, it hired the wrong guy. And that’s absolutely correct. Smith is just doing what he has always done. The Memphis version of Smith is no different than the Minnesota version of Smith or the Kentucky version of Smith. Whomever made the decision to hire Smith — and the ultimate responsibility has to fall to Rudd and athletic director Tom Bowen — did a disservice to Smith and the broader university.

That’s all indisputable. But it doesn’t get Memphis out of its financial fix. Nor does it help to say Memphis fans should have supported this year’s gritty, hard-working team. They didn’t support it. Attendance was at a 48-year low. Will that improve if Memphis brings Smith back for another year? There’s no reason to think it will.

So it’s great for every college basketball coach in the universe to come out in support of Smith. They don’t have to pay the bills. The people who do are focused on something else altogether.

Contributions and ticket sales.