If Brazil's incoming president rolls back environmental protection as feared, activists are considering a push from below, U.S.-style

By Sebastien Malo

KATOWICE, Poland, Dec 11 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - With its wooden walls and posters on protecting forests and fauna, Brazil's pavilion at the U.N. climate talks in Poland offers no hint of the angst at home and abroad over mixed messages on global warming from its president-elect.

But campaign promises made by Jair Bolsonaro that could weaken protection for the Amazon rainforest are a hot topic of conversation among visitors, said Caio Henrique Scarmocin, one of three hosts on the stand.

At the conference, whose outcome will be key to implementing the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, scientists and environmental activists said they were laying the groundwork should calls for Bolsonaro to protect Brazil's forests fail.

Campaign statements from Bolsonaro, who takes power in January, suggested indigenous lands could be opened up to economic exploitation, including agribusiness and mining, and environmental fines eased.

The ability of Ibama, Brazil's environmental protection agency, to fine those who break environmental laws is one of the government's best defences against the destruction of forests, stoking fears of a deforestation spike under the new government.

Bolsonaro, who campaigned on a far-right platform, also pushed the Brazilian government to withdraw its offer to host next year's U.N. climate conference.

"He has a hostile approach over environmental issues," said Paulo Barreto, a researcher with Imazon, a Brazilian institute monitoring deforestation in the Amazon.

Brazil is home to about 60 percent of the Amazon rainforest, considered by many as nature's best weapon against global warming, because trees absorb and store carbon from the air.

Alfredo Sirkis, executive secretary of the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, said he thought dialogue with the incoming government was still possible.

But if environmental roll-backs proceed, there was a "contingency plan", he told journalists.

A coalition would assemble regional governments committed to respecting Brazil's emissions reduction goals set under the Paris pact, said Sirkis.

Governors in as many as seven Brazilian states, including Amazonas, Pernambuco, the Federal District, Espirito Santo, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, had already expressed interest in joining, he said.

"This is for starters," said the former congressman.

A spokesman for the presidency of Brazil at the climate talks declined to comment.

U.S. SHOWS THE WAY

The plan has similarities with "We Are Still In", a U.S. group of more than 3,500 mayors, governors and business leaders who have promised they will not retreat from the Paris deal.

Last year, U.S. President Donald Trump gave notice the United States would leave the accord - although it cannot formally withdraw until 2020 - arguing it was bad for the economy.

Mauricio Voivodic, executive director of WWF-Brazil, said his group had been in touch with the U.S. campaign through WWF-US, which is part of the "We Are Still In" secretariat.

The American coalition has its own pavilion at the U.N. climate talks.

"We are learning from 'We Are Still In' the importance of sub-national (governments) and companies enhancing commitments for the implementation of the Paris Agreement," Voivodic said.

But WWF-Brazil is not yet trying to emulate the model because it wants to prioritise dialogue already underway with the transition government, he added.

"It could be an option, but we are not going in the direction of starting planning this," said Voivodic.

Brazil's future environment minister told Reuters on Monday his "inclination" was not to leave the Paris Agreement, after Bolsonaro said on the campaign trail he might quit the deal, under which countries set their own targets to cut emissions.

Marcio Astrini, public policy coordinator for Greenpeace Brazil, said he also looked to the United States as a vague blueprint to build a similar "resistance movement".

A Brazilian version would draw on linkages between about 150 civil society groups who worked closely over the last year to oppose Bolsonaro's campaign, he said.

Also mirroring tactics used in the United States, his group does not exclude filing lawsuits to push back against potential weakening of environmental and climate regulations in Brazil.

"It's on the table," he said, adding that it was still a last-resort option.

(Reporting by Sebastien Malo @sebastienmalo, Editing by Megan Rowling. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers climate change, humanitarian news, women's and LGBT+ rights, human trafficking and property rights. Visit http://news.trust.org/climate)

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