Anyone who can possibly make themselves eligible for the coming draft is part of my 2018 board. This is just a list of my top players among the 2018 high school class and 2000 born international players. The 2019 draft will be the earliest draft these prospects can be eligible. The top NCAA players that will redshirt this season are also included since it would be almost unprecedented for someone to enter the draft after choosing to sit out the entire season.

Tier 5

26. Michael Weathers

25. Brandon Clarke

24. Joel Ayayi

23. Devon Daniels

22. Luka Samanic

21. Immanuel Quickley

20. Jaylen Hoard

19. Darius Bazley

Notably missing are Romeo Langford, Quentin Grimes and Nazreon Reid. Langford is an inefficient volume scorer with just average athletic ability, not exactly the type of player that excites me at the high school level. Grimes certainly has excellent physical tools for a modern PG but he’s raw in too many other respects and has a long way to go with his feel and consistency. Reid is a talented big who just hasn’t consistently put together his package of physical tools and skills in a productive manner out on the court. He was the player closest to making this list that did not.

Michael Weathers and Devon Daniels were two of the most surprising freshmen in college basketball last season. Weathers used his athletic ability to consistently put pressure on opponents on both ends. He struggled with his jump shot but was still effective getting into the paint to finish and create for teammates. Not always in a good way, he was all over the place defensively and ended up with an impressive number of steals and blocks. It’ll be interesting to see how his game translates against high major competition and what kind of a role he plays for Oklahoma State. Meanwhile, Daniels is a crafty but not especially athletic, offensive player with the ability to finish with either hand in an array of floaters, runners and flip shots. He has an innate timing for when the space to get off his shot becomes available, while using his strong upper body to create that space. Daniels is a smart decision maker in general and a solid passer who basically played point guard during a large chunk of his minutes. He’ll still be just 20 years old going into 2018-19 and along with Markell Johnson, will likely to be the team’s “go to guy”.

Ayayi and Samanic are the top two 2000 born international prospects outside of Sekou Doumbouya. Samanic is rated as a future lottery pick by some evaluators but I’m much more skeptical of his upside. It’s hard for me to see him being rated that highly if he wasn’t dominating B-division Europeans and instead playing AAU on one of the talent laden shoe circuits. Ayayi will actually be a freshman at Gonzaga this year but is too young to be eligible for the 2018 draft. He’s taken a nice step forward since I saw him at the European u16 championship a year ago and has a nice combo of physical tools and budding skill set to be an intriguing PG prospect.

Quickley is rated higher by most recruiting services but needs to improve his playmaking in order to be legit PG prospect and doesn’t quite have the size to play SG full time. Bazley’s physical talent is reminiscent of a poor man’s Marvin Bagley. Jaylen Hoard is a French player who spend some time adjusting to the US game but seems to have broken out in recent events and maybe on his way up the list.

Tier 4

18. Dedric Lawson

17. Devon Dotson

16. Jahvon Quinerly

15. Ayo Dosunmu

14. Jordan Brown

13. Emmitt Williams

12. Darius Garland

11. Keldon Johnson

Dotson, Quinerly and Garland are all talented but small point guards and will need to adjust to the size of the high-major college game, not to mention the NBA. Dosunmu has fine size for a one but will need to prove himself capable of setting up teammates and making good decisions with the ball. Jordan Brown is a talented big man who was once rated as one of the top five players in the class but has struggled to add weight to his frame and hasn’t shown as much development defensively as some had hoped. Emmitt Williams is a big time athlete, with one of the best motors in the class but at 6’6 with no perimeter skills, there are questions about his game translating to the next level. Shooting range had been considered the biggest weakness in Keldon Johnson’s game but reports from recent evens indicate he has improved his three-point shooting. If that information stands the test of time, he becomes one of the most complete wing prospects in the class and could be rated several spots higher by the end of the year.

The two transfers, Lawson and Clarke, are both pure PFs who have some intriguing statistical indicators but also questions about their projection to the next level. Brandon Clarke is without a doubt an NBA athlete but has struggled with his perimeter offense to this point, something that is constantly becoming more and more important for almost every NBA player. At 6’8 Clarke isn’t tall enough to play the 5 full time and will likely need to show pretty drastic developement on his unconventional jump shot at Gonzaga. Dedric Lawson has the size and enough perimeter game to be a modern day “power forward” but would probably be one of the worst run and jump athletes in the entire league as soon as he steps foot on the court. Many talent evaluators believe that prospects need to be above a certain threshold of athletic ability in order to succeed in the NBA. Whether Lawson is below that point or just barely above it is up for debate and something I’m sure NBA teams will keep an eye on during his time at Kansas.

Tier 3

10. Coby White

9. Reggie Perry

8. Simi Shittu

7. Nassir Little

I’ve linked the player profiles for White, Perry and Shittu, so I’ll concentrate on Nassir Little here. Of course, the first thing that stands out about Little is his alleged involvement in the FBI scandal. Reports indicate that he is one of the players accused of receiving improper benefits in exchange for his commitment. I’m not a legal expert so I won’t speculate any further but how the NCAA handles his eligibility certainly raises questions. However, no matter what comes of this situations, he is still an excellent prospect, a 6’6 wing with a 7’1 wingspan, a strong frame, very good lateral agility and major explosiveness at the rim. Little profiles as the type of versatile 3 & D wing that any team would love to add, as he has the size to play some minutes as a small ball 4 and the mobility to potentially defend 2s and even PGs. He’s already extremely effective creating events as a team defender and has promising results and mechanics as a jump shooter. At the same time, there’s plenty of room for development as a decision maker, ball handler and play maker. Little isn’t a selfish player and does a good job using his athletic ability to get all the way to the rim, especially when he’s got a head start prior to catching the ball. Still he’s got a lot of work to do before he could be considered the type of offensive prospect I can project as a successful top option in the NBA.

Tier 2

6. Sekou Doumbouya

5. Cameron Reddish

4. Tre Jones

3. RJ Barrett

2. Bol Bol

Being the youngest player on this list and one of the better overall athletes, Doumbouya has as much upside as anyone in tier 2. Unfortunately, he’s had a relatively slow start in France’s second league. A player his age having a consistent role in the rotation of a professional team is impressive to some extent but Doumbouya’s perimeter skills are going to have to show drastic improvement if he is to be considered a top five prospect.

More than 15 months older than Doumbouya, Cameron Reddish is a much more polished, complete player. He is regarded by some as the best long term prospect in the class but I have concerns about a possible lack of burst and quickness which doesn’t allow Reddish to consistently put pressure on the defense. He often settles for contested jump shots off the dribble and lacks the dexterity, acceleration and balance to consistently get in the paint in half court situations. Perhaps, this is a misplaced analysis and I’ve seen suggestions that Reddish isn’t forced into bad shots but rather chooses to take them. Perhaps as he continues to develop, he improves on his shot selection and is able to be a more efficient player. However, at this point I haven’t seen enough on court evidence in support of that theory and place them slightly lower than other evaluators.

In Tre Jones’ case, it’s possible his lack of size will prove to be detrimental against more talented competition. In past classes, skilled and intelligent but undersized point guards dominated AAU circuits, yet weren’t able to fully translate their game to D1 basketball. Still, at this point Jones has been too productive and valuable to be rated below the more naturally gifted Reddish and Doumbouya. As long as Jones is able to expand his shooting range, something that he at the very least has shown flashes of, he has the whole package of quickness, skill and IQ that you’d want in a PG prospect. One of the craftiest finishers I’ve seen at his age, Jones also happens to be arguably the best passer in the class and one of the better perimeter defenders.

RJ Barrett is the consensus top ranked player for 2019 but he neither an elite athlete, nor a great ball handler or shooter. All that adds up to one question too many for my liking and I’m ultimately skeptical about his upside. Of course, it’s not all bad, as Barrett has unbelievable balance, flexibility, footwork and overall feel, particularly as a scorer. I love his aggressive approach and ability to create contact, at the same time not forcing drives and playing a mostly unselfish brand of basketball. He’s young for this class and even if his ball handling and shooting is still not up to par, he has improved them a good deal over the past year. Barrett doesn’t create steals, blocks and deflections at a high rate and will need to become a more impactful team defender but his on ball defense is quite good.

It’s worth noting that Reddish, Jones and Barrett will all be on the same college team next season. Duke will once again unbelievably talented and likely one of the favorites to win the national championship. With that being said, to this point in their careers, Reddish, Jones and Barrett have been “The Guy” on almost every team they’ve played for. Jones was used in a secondary capacity for the US u16 team a few years back and also played an off ball role for Howard Pulley in 2016. Those also happen to be the two events where he was unable to impact the game as much as in more recent competitions. If Barrett doesn’t display significant development as a spot up shooter, I also wonder about his effectiveness and fit alongside (at least) two other ball dominant players. In short, while all three players are very talented, there’s no guarantee that they will be used as top options in the NBA and will need to show the potential to be effective secondary and/or tertiary options.

Barrett and Bol Bol are essentially interchangeable at the number two spot of the rankings. I gave a tiny edge to Bol mostly because I wanted to accentuate my concerns regarding Barrett. As for Bol, he is a player that embodies the classic definition of a basketball “unicorn”. His 9’6 standing reach allows him to be one of the better defensive anchors in the class and maybe the best outside shooter ever among players with his type of size. Not only is he pure with his feet set, Bol has also proven himself capable on the move and off the dribble. His mental approach, lack of mobility and possible injury concerns are the only things holding him back from being ranked in the top tier.

Tier 1

1. Zion Williamson

My thoughts on Williamson are mostly covered in his player profile. I believe in his upside, although I am concerned about his low floor. A player as unique as Williamson is always tough to evaluate. In a way, he may be the answer to the question: “How good would Charles Barkley be if he played in the modern NBA?”

Since I wrote the profile, there’s been a couple of pieces of news regarding Williamson that I’d like to comment on. First, the measurements from the Hoop Summit and US u17 team mini-camp have been released. By far the most talked about measurement was Williamson’s 272 pound weight. While I didn’t know that Williamson weighed quite that much, I wasn’t particularly shocked by the number either. Conditioning is a weakness and if Williamson is unable to stay in shape in the future it could be a sever detriment to his stock. However, there is a positive spin here also. Once Williamson gets to a high major training program, let alone an NBA one, he is bound to improve upon his physique. Perks like professional weight training and a personal nutritionist could reap major benefits for Zion. He is already dominant, imagine if he was even more mobile and played with more consistent intensity. In particular on the defensive end, Williamson could be a much more effective and versatile player if he has the work ethic necessary to get in shape.

The other topic of conversation around Williamson has been his college recruitment. Duke, Kansas and Kentucky have all been mentioned as possible favorites over the past year. However, recently Clemson has made a strong push for the local product and it is my gut feeling that Zion ends up with the Tigers. That being said, if Williamson doesn’t commit by December, it probably means that he is no where near ready to make up his mind and will end up waiting until next spring or even summer to make his choice. In that case, I don’t think anyone really knows where he’ll end up but North Carolina is being overlooked as a possible destination. Chapel Hill is only about a three hour drive from Williamson’s current residence in Spartanburg and Nassir Little is a close friend. The two players spend time together on the Adidas AAU circuit and bonded during their trip to EuroCamp in Italy. Both are known as empathic dunkers and they’ve dubbed themselves the “Jam Fam”. If Williamson doesn’t decide by the end of 2017, the Tar Heels could have a serious chance at Zion, provided they continue to pour resources into recruiting him and have scholarships available on next year’s team, of course.

Overall, the 2018 High School class isn’t amazing but because of the depth in this year’s draft I think we might see several talented prospects return for another year in college instead of entering the 2018 draft, which would help beef up the talent in the 2019 draft. Even so, unless Zion Williamson really is the modern Barkley, the 2019 draft will probably be remembered as a weaker class alongside 2017, 2018 and even 2020. Speaking of 2020, it has a chance to be a really interesting draft but more on that soon…