WHATEVER can be said about India, remarked a British economist, Joan Robinson, the opposite can also be said. This also appears to apply to the speed at which people think India's economy can grow. Today's estimate by India's Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) appears to confirm that the tiger may be tiring somewhat. According to the CSO, the economy grew by a lower-than expected 7.8% year on year in the first three month of 2011 (GDP grew by an annual 8.5% in the fiscal year 2010-11 (April-March), up from 8.0% in the previous year).

For policymakers this is a disappointment. Given India's level of domestic demand and fast-growing middle class they consider GDP growth of 7.5-8.0% to be easily attainable. The Planning Commission has just set 9-9.5% as its target for India's 12th Five-year plan (2013-17).

The moderation in January-March was not altogether surprising. First, there was a base effect. GDP surged by 9.4% in the final quarter of fiscal year 2009-10—the fastest quarterly expansion since the global recession (growth for the final quarter of 2009/10 was revised from 8.6% to 9.4%). So annual growth in the January-March quarter was bound to look moderate. Second, the OECD's leading indicator for India has been pointing towards a slowdown of economic activity since January 2011. Third, interest rates have been rising and industrial activity has moderated. Near double-digit inflation has been eating into people's real purchasing power and reduced firms' appetite to step up investment.

Pranab Mukherjee, India's finance minister, has said that GDP growth in fiscal year 2011/12 may slow to 8% (one percentage point lower than assumed in the budget he presented in February). On May 3rd, when the Reserve Bank of India hiked rates by a sharper-than-expected 50 basis points it also cut its growth forecast for fiscal year 2011-12 to 8% (assuming that oil prices average US$110 per barrel). Some private sector economist's forecast growth for this year at 7.5%.

No one suggests that today's data is worrying. But it confirms that there is a significant gap between the sort of pace India's economic planners target and what can be reasonably expected, at least in the near term.