As the calendar flipped to November, it looked like it was finally Utah’s time. Kyle Whittingham’s Utes have maybe been the most consistently solid team in the Pac-12 South; they are also the only team not to have won it.

After a brilliant October that featured blowouts of Stanford, Arizona, and UCLA and an arm’s-length win over USC, everything was aligned properly. The South stunk, and Utah was up to 12th in S&P+. This was the year.

On November 3, starting quarterback Tyler Huntley broke his collarbone and was lost for the season, and the Utes got blown out at Arizona State.

On November 7 or so, starting running back and 1,000-yard rusher (already) Zack Moss aggravated a knee injury climbing into bed. He, too, was lost for the season.

On November 10, Utah surged to a 13-0 lead against Oregon with backup quarterback Jason Shelley and backup running back Armand Shyne but watched that slowly fritter away. Oregon took a 25-22 lead with eight minutes left, and another late-season malaise — Utah fans’ biggest complaint about Whittingham is mediocre Novembers — appeared underway.

The Utes responded to Oregon’s lead with a five-play, 60-yard drive that culminated in a Shelley touchdown. They tacked on a late field goal and survived, 32-25. And after two weeks from hell, they somehow remain the statistical favorites in the division from hell.

There have been some spectacularly strange division races this year, and while some have wrapped up (Northwestern won the Big Ten West), and others have a clear leader (Pitt is in control of the ACC Coastal), the Pac-12 South remains as messy as ever.

Three teams still have a shot. At 4-3 and holding a tie-breaker advantage over Utah, Arizona State controls its own destiny, needing only to beat Oregon on Saturday and Arizona the Saturday after to reach its second conference title game.

According to S&P+, though, the Sun Devils are projected underdogs against Oregon and are in a virtual tossup against UA. Controlling your destiny only means so much if you’re unlikely to win out.

There are, for all intents and purposes, four games in this race. Let’s see what S&P+ has to say about each.

November 17: Arizona State at Oregon (S&P+ win probability: Oregon 54%)

November 17: Utah at Colorado (Utah 78%)

November 17: Arizona at Washington State (Wazzu 80%)

November 24: Arizona State at Arizona (50%)

It should be noted that S&P+ is not designed to take injuries into account, at least not before the team’s play is affected by the injuries. So while it is extremely confident in Utah’s chances of winning at a collapsing Colorado, maybe it should be a hair less confident, even if the Utes offense looked fine last Saturday.

Even if you tamp down that 78 percent win probability, you only tamp it down so much (again, Colorado is lost in the woods at the moment), and win projections suggest Utah is still very much in the driver’s seat.

Let’s look at the scenarios required for each team to win and the odds of each.

Utah (65 percent)

Beat Colorado and have ASU lose to either Arizona or Oregon (or both)

Lose to Colorado but have ASU lose to both Arizona and Oregon and Arizona lose to Wazzu

Arizona State (33 percent)

Beat Oregon and Arizona

Lose to Oregon, beat Arizona, have Colorado beat Utah

Beat Oregon, lose to Arizona, have Colorado beat Utah and Wazzu beat Arizona

Arizona (2 percent)

Beat Washington State and Arizona State and have Utah lose to Colorado

Here are the odds of each potential combination:

Pac-12 South Scenarios ASU-UO winner UU-CU winner UA-WSU winner ASU-UA winner S&P+ Odds South Champ ASU-UO winner UU-CU winner UA-WSU winner ASU-UA winner S&P+ Odds South Champ Oregon Utah Washington State Arizona 17% Utah Oregon Utah Washington State Arizona State 17% Utah Arizona State Utah Washington State Arizona 14% Utah Arizona State Utah Washington State Arizona State 14% ASU Oregon Colorado Washington State Arizona 5% Utah Oregon Colorado Washington State Arizona State 5% ASU Oregon Utah Arizona Arizona 4% Utah Oregon Utah Arizona Arizona State 4% Utah Arizona State Colorado Washington State Arizona 4% ASU Arizona State Colorado Washington State Arizona State 4% ASU Arizona State Utah Arizona Arizona 4% Utah Arizona State Utah Arizona Arizona State 4% ASU Oregon Colorado Arizona Arizona 1% Arizona Oregon Colorado Arizona Arizona State 1% ASU Arizona State Colorado Arizona Arizona 1% Arizona Arizona State Colorado Arizona Arizona State 1% ASU

If you believe that Utah’s win probability against Colorado is more like 70 percent because of the injuries, that changes the overall odds to Utah 60 percent, ASU 37 percent, Arizona three percent. And if you believe that Utah’s chances against Colorado are more like 60 percent (I do not), that tamps the Utes’ division odds down to about 55 percent.

Regardless, if Utah handles its business in Boulder, the odds are good that ASU will lose one of the next two, and Whittingham will finally have his division title.