By Adnan Khan

The rebel victories and takeover of Syria’s financial and economic hub back in 2012 is now a very distant memory. The capture of much of the Aleppo governorate and its capital city with the same name helped the opposition to establish itself as a viable challenge to al-Assad. It also began the rapid decline and regime loss of territory which eventually led to al-Assad to give up reclaiming the north of Syria. But today of all the ongoing battles in the country, the battle for Aleppo is now the largest and most decisive battle which is about to reach its moment of reckoning. Victory is critical to both al-Assad and the rebels as Assad attempts to cement his position through a decisive military victory. Whilst the rebels are fighting for the survival of their cause. The loss of Aleppo would in all likelihood make any military victory against al-Assad a distant dream for the rebels and the people of Syria. Whilst for al-Assad it will lead to his rejuvenation after his regime was on the verge of collapse 10 months ago.

On July 17 2016 al-Assad’s forces, Iranian militias, Hizbollah fighters with Russian air support and other militia took over the last road link, the Castello Road, to the eastern sector of Aleppo, which had been in the hands of the rebels since 2012. This was the last remaining supply line for restocking weapons and basic necessities.[1] Al-Assad’s forces are now entrenching their positions around the Eastern part of Aleppo city, the last remaining rebel stronghold and begun a punishing campaign of starvation and aerial bombardment. Al-Assad’s campaign against Aleppo City began in October 2015 when the Russian intervention stopped and reversed the rebel advance in Latakia and Idlib. With Russia air power and Iranian leadership as well as Shi’ah militia, probing attacks along multiple fronts in Aleppo and Idlib Provinces caused confusion and overextended the opposition. These operations took place in the southern, eastern, and northern countryside of Aleppo City in order to draw opposition forces out of urban terrain and set conditions for what is now the decisive operation to besiege the city. Russian airpower and Iranian manpower have brought Bashar al-Assad to the complete encirclement of Aleppo City.

The international powers, not to be outdone, have similarly committed massacres in order to bomb the rebellion into submission. US warplanes on July 18th committed a bloody massacre after targeting the city of Manbij, killing more than 20 civilians and injuring dozens of women and children.[2] Just the day after French warplanes took revenge for the attacks in Nice in the Greater Toukhan village north of Manbij city, carrying out a massacre which led to the deaths of more than 200 civilians, mostly children, women and elderly, including entire families.[3] On July 23 Russia also conducted air strikes that left 70 people dead, including children, in raids on several areas around Aleppo. All of the

deadly airstrikes resulted in casualties and widespread destruction of property and buildings that complicated the rescue and recovery operations to retrieve the injured and dead bodies from the rubble. The rebel forces holed up in Eastern Aleppo are being bombed into ending their uprising.

[pullquote align=”right” color=”” class=”” cite=”” link=””]The truces between the different opposition and rebel groups with the regime have clearly been used by the regime to prepare the ground for its assault on Aleppo. The truces from the side of the rebels has been a strategic blunder that in the end has aided the regime immensely [/pullquote]

The truces between the different opposition and rebel groups with the regime have clearly been used by the regime to prepare the ground for its assault on Aleppo. All of the truces from the very beginning of the uprising in Syria have led to the regime to use them to expand its influence elsewhere and then completely disregard the truce agreed. Al-Assad signed a number of truces since 2011 and eventually revoked them, such as the Kofi Annan truce in April 2012, the Lakhdar Brahimi’s truce during Eid al-Adha in October 2012, the truce of Barza neighbourhood in January 2014, and the truce of Qaboun neighbourhood in September 2014. The Zabadani truce required the signatories to leave for Idlib and in the Al-Waar truce the agreement required the people to move to Idlib. Similarly the truces in Zabadani and Madaya required the people to leave for Idlib. The Al-Waar truce in December 2015, stipulated the exit of the opposition gunmen from the neighbourhood towards Idlib, thus clearing the fighting in Homs and giving the cradle of the uprising completely back to al-Assad. With the opposition and many of the groups in Idlib this area was hit the hardest by Russian air forces and paved the way for the al-Assad regime to deal them a fatal blow and clear the route to Aleppo, which is what allowed it to encircle it. The truces from the side of the rebels has been a strategic blunder that in the end has aided the regime immensely.

On July 31, nearly 20 major rebel groups, launched an operation intended to break the siege on Aleppo. Though it has yet to accomplish its goal, the offensive has made considerable progress and will cement the rebels’ view that internal unity is paramount. But without external help and reinforcements the moment of reckoning is beckoning for those fighting for survival in Aleppo. Despite some of the groups receiving arms and finance by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and even the US, this help has never extended to weapons that would make a difference in the battle against the regime. ISIS has also played a cen­tral role in weak­en­ing the rebel defences and the cur­rent encir­clement in Aleppo. ISIS tried on many occa­sions to cap­ture Aleppo and make gains in Idlib, despite these being under rebel con­trol. Despite ISIS always los­ing, this cost the rebel groups, report­edly 7,000 fighters.[4] The rebel groups in the north of Syria have had to face attacks from ISIS in the East, regime forces in the South and Russ­ian air attacks, along­side Iran­ian mili­tia from all sides of the coun­try. This led them to be in a month’s long continues battle which has weakened their capabilities in the face of the impending siege.

The bat­tle for Aleppo and its outcome will have a major impact on the over­all con­flict in Syria. Al-Assad’s forces have taken over many towns in the past 5 years, but found it much eas­ier to con­quer towns then to main­tain its occu­pa­tion and main­tain­ing the occu­pa­tion of Aleppo will require urban con­flict, which would work to the strength of the rebel groups. As the revolution reaches its Stalingrad moment the bat­tle for Aleppo may very well be the defin­ing moment in the demand for real change by the peo­ple of Syria.

[1] http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/12/assad-cuts-the-last-road-to-aleppo-and-moves-in-for-the-kill.html

[2] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/led-air-strikes-kill-21-civilians-syria-160719045329897.html

[3] https://aladinsmiraclelamp.wordpress.com/2016/07/20/nice-france-avenges-nice-massacre-massacres-120-syrian-civilians/

[4] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/02/syria-isis-advance-on-aleppo-aided-by-assad-regime-air-strikes-us-says