On paper, the Mountain West Conference West division tends to be the inferior of the conference's two divisions. In the seven seasons since the MWC instituted two divisions and a title game, West teams have had an average SP+ rating of minus-7.9 and an average ranking of 92nd. Teams in the Mountain division: minus-1.5 and 73rd, respectively.

West teams have won four of seven conference titles in that span, however, and that includes Hawai'i's loss at Boise State last season. Fresno State and San Diego State have won two each and, per SP+, are the two favorites to reach the title game this coming fall (or spring, or whenever). But they'll both be breaking in new head coaches, as will Hawai'i and UNLV. This race might be completely up for grabs.

Jump to: UNLV | Nevada | San Jose State

Hawai'i | Fresno State | San Diego State

Head coach: Marcus Arroyo (first season)

2019: 4-8 (2-6 Mountain West), 120th in SP+

2020 projection: 3-9 (2-6), 121st in SP+

Five best returning players: RB Charles Williams, RG Julio Garcia, QB Kenyon Oblad, FS Greg Francis, WR Randal Grimes

It remains an ongoing mystery: Why can't UNLV be good at football? From a big-picture view, the Rebels have plenty to offer. They're in an attractive city, and they have one of the best high school teams in the country, Bishop Gorman, in their backyard. It looked for a moment as if Tony Sanchez was going to crack the code. The former Gorman coach took over a two-win program in 2015 and improved to three wins in his first season, then four and five. The school finalized plans for the new Fertitta Football Complex and arranged to move out of the aging (and miles from campus) Sam Boyd Stadium and into the Raiders' swanky, new, and slightly closer Allegiant Stadium.

Unfortunately, improvement came to a halt. UNLV dropped three one-score games and slipped to 4-8 in 2018, and in 2019, the Rebels' offense was a cavalcade of injury -- by my count, three of the intended 11 starters played in all 12 games. UNLV started 2-8 before a couple of late wins. Sanchez was fired.

Now it's Marcus Arroyo's turn to test his code-breaking skills. The former San Jose State quarterback spent the past three seasons with Mario Cristobal in Oregon; he inherits an offensive two-deep loaded with potential (and, yes, injury history) and an utterly blank slate for a defense.

At QB, it could be an up-to-four-man battle among Kenyon Oblad (2019's leading passer), Armani Rogers (a great, if injury-prone, runner who has never developed as a passer), Max Gilliam (2018's passing leader) and, if eligible, Justin Rogers, a former blue-chipper and TCU transfer with his own injury history.

The line is rebuilding a bit but boasts all-conference candidate Julio Garcia, and the skill corps includes 1,200-yard rusher Charles Williams, big-play receivers Randal Grimes and Steve Jenkins, and potentially 2018's leading receiver Brandon Presley, who tore his ACL last spring.

The bad news for new defensive coordinator Peter Hansen: Of the 15 players who logged at least 200 snaps last season, only seven return. This unit has almost no known depth or proven quantities.

The good news: UNLV has ranked in the defensive SP+ top 90 just once in the past 16 years, so even with a bunch of incumbents, a new culture was a requirement. The bar is low!

A longtime Stanford assistant, Hansen will likely try to install a competition-heavy culture. You figure every job here is open. Nose tackle Kolo Uasike should win a job, and sophomores such as linebackers Malakai Salu and Jacoby Windmon, cornerback Jamel Hamm and safety Phillip Hill might be ready for advancement on the depth chart, but the names here really don't matter. If Hansen can get this D up to about 110th or so, that's an accomplishment.

UNLV moves into the new stadium and opens with home games against Cal, Louisiana Tech and Arizona State, but it would be a minor miracle if the Rebels did too much damage. This season will be primarily about figuring out which chess pieces belong where.

Head coach: Jay Norvell (18-20, fourth season)

2019: 7-6 (4-4), 112th in SP+

2020 projection: 6-6 (4-4), 107th

Five best returning players: DE Dom Peterson, DT Sam Hammond, WR Elijah Cooks, WR Romeo Doubs, LB Lawson Hall

In my MAC East preview, I wrote about a Miami (Ohio) team that went through a youth movement and the corresponding growing pains but eked out some close victories (and got a little lucky) and managed to win the division in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season.

Consider Nevada the MWC's Miami, only a game short of a division title. Jay Norvell's third Wolf Pack squad went 7-6 and attended its second consecutive bowl despite, well, not being very good. Three QBs threw at least 40 passes (freshman Carson Strong led the way), nearly every receiver missed time, eight offensive linemen started at least one game, and the offense fell from 83rd to 113th in offensive SP+. The defense was a little luckier from an injuries standpoint but still came in just 85th. Only a 5-1 record in one-score games kept Nevada afloat.

Last season's good fortune could reverse itself, but at the same time, Strong is no longer a freshman, most of the skill corps is back, seven of those eight linemen return, and the defense ... has a new coordinator, at least.

Strong was at the helm of the offense for the best and worst moments of the season. He threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns against Purdue and completed a combined 69% of his passes during a three-game winning streak late in the season. And while Nevada lost to Ohio in the Potato Bowl, he was good: 31-for-49 for 402 yards.

During his other five games, though, he averaged just 9.5 yards per completion, threw six interceptions to one touchdown, and managed just a 105.6 passer rating. Coordinator Matt Mumme's Air Raid-ish system teaches a quarterback to take what the defense gives him, but in his bad moments, Strong was far too passive.

Junior backs Toa Taua and Devonte Lee both return, and at wide receiver, senior Elijah Cooks and Romeo Doubs combined for 1,575 yards and 12 touchdowns. Sophomore slot man Melquan Stovall could be ready for a breakthrough, too.

Norvell brought in Brian Ward to coordinate the defense. In his best moments as Syracuse's DC, Ward was able to pair great pass rushing with sturdy safety play; that's good because end and safety might be this defense's best two positions. Beefy junior Dom Peterson recorded nine sacks and 20 run stuffs last season, while end Tristan Nichols could be ready for a bigger role. At the back, the Pack have to replace their best playmaking corner (Daniel Brown) but safeties Tyson Williams, Austin Arnold and Jordan Lee are solid. The linebacker position is starting over, but that can be overcome if Nevada is good in the front and back.

Close-game performance will likely determine Nevada's fate. SP+ projects two likely wins and two likely losses in nonconference, but thanks to the home-road splits, every MWC game is projected within six points. The Wolf Pack have a better than 20% chance of going 8-4 or better and a better than 15% chance of going 4-8 or worse.