Abuses of the treaty's strict controls on any use of military personnel are said to have already occurred with many countries not reporting their use in Antarctica, while Australia is neglecting to use defence assets there. The report, "Cold Calculations", released on Monday, warns that the increasing militarisation is occurring just as Australia's Antarctic efforts face crippling budget restrictions. "We run our Antarctic program on the smell of an oily rag," said Australian Strategic Policy Institute deputy director Anthony Bergin. "For 2013–14, its overall budget is $169 million, an 8 per cent cut from 2012–13." The latest Defence White Paper said there was no credible risk to Australia's national interests in the Antarctic that might require substantial military responses over the next few decades. "But in the decades to come, military conflict between the major powers could well have an Antarctic dimension, given the possible role of Antarctic bases in surveillance and satellite monitoring," Dr Bergin said.

"We're not using our military resources to support our Antarctic program, even though many other nations use theirs. It's part of the verification regime that they should report the use of military personnel, but many don't." The central rule of the Antarctic Treaty for guaranteeing peaceful use of the continent is a agreement that any nation can inspect another's operations. However, the co-author of Cold Calculations, Sam Bateman of the University of Wollongong, questioned whether this inspection regime was up to assessing whether research was being conducted for non-peaceful purposes. Professor Bateman said it was likely that Antarctic bases were being used increasingly for military research involving space and satellites. "We could be moving towards the increased weaponisation of Antarctica through the use of Antarctic bases to control offensive weapons systems," he said. "That possibility is worrying."

The clear, interference-free skies of Antarctica make them suitable for space observation, and Professor Bateman pointed to China's third Antarctic station, Kunlun, at one of the highest and coldest points on the continent. "It's ideally suited for sending, receiving or intercepting signals from satellites," Professor Bateman said. He said both China and India had active government programs and were seeking to increase the number of their bases - yet neither currently reported the use of military personnel and it may be time for the treaty to tighten reporting requirements. "This might include, for example, widening reporting of introductions of military personnel into Antarctica to recognise the possible employment of private security contractors and other civilian personnel in activities of an essentially military nature." Iran's foray into Antarctica as a maritime power was recently confirmed though the government's semi-official Fars News Agency, which reported Rear Admiral Khadem Biqam as saying its first phase would involve co-operation with another nation.

At the same time, Australian Strategic Policy Institute executive director Peter Jennings raised doubt about the Australian Defence Force's ability to sustain a maritime presence during a full Antarctic summer season. "Our currently very limited capacity to operate in the far south is looking embarrassingly poor and not in keeping with the claim that this is part of the ADF's primary operational environment." The strategic report comes as the Abbott government prepares to embark on developing a 20-year strategic plan, in a project to be led by the Antarctic Co-operative Research Centre's executive director, Tony Press. Dr Press said the relentless erosion of core budget capacity ran the risk of recreating a "Sir Humphrey Appleby hospital" in Antarctica: three research stations and a marine science capability - but no means to fund and support real scientific activity.