TFC are vulnerable to teams that attack in transition down the flanks, - which is generally how DC United tries to play.

DC are, though, going to struggle to get the ball there in the first place. Typically, when they win the ball back, rather than hoofing it upfield with their defenders (who are not great passers by our pass score metric on the whole), they dump it to their defensive midfielders to then hit outlets to the flanks. Toronto’s advanced center midfielders generally work to prevent that kind of circulation.

The other tactical battle to watch for is how Arriola defends Michael Bradley. Bradley dictates Toronto’s offense with his diagonal long balls to the wings. Pressuring him in the midfield, and preventing him from having time to pick his passes, can mitigate some of Toronto’s ability to create overloads and one-on-ones out wide.

WHY DC UNITED WILL MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL

DC’s strengths are set pieces and defending, and sitting deep and scoring on counters and on set pieces is a perfectly fine way to get through a tournament. DC United get 4.6 shots per game from set-pieces, free kicks, and corners, the most in the league, and the average quality of those shots is the 6th highest in the league. Steve Birnbaum and Frederic Brillant are just big bodies to throw at a problem, and they’ll make life tough for opposing defenses. Bill Hamid has also been excellent at stopping shots in 2019 - he’s been a top 5 keeper and is third in goals allowed above expected. Those are all good things to have for a deep playoff run.

WHY DC UNITED WILL NOT MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL

Like I covered in the Stats section, DC have not played especially well in 2019. While they limit the quality of opposition chances, they still give up a large quantity of them. 17 shots per game is just too much pressure to concede for an entire playoff run. It’s not sustainable. Combined with playing every game on the road, and an offense that couldn’t manage a goal against Cincinnati, it looks like DC is due for an early exit.