Toxic algae will be severe, experts predict

PUT-IN-BAY – Toxic algae on Lake Erie this summer is expected to be among the worst on record – even worse than last year when toxin from algae contaminated Toledo's drinking water, experts said Thursday.

The bloom is predicted to be an 8.7 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the worst, said Rick Stumpf, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration oceanographer and expert on harmful algal blooms.

The worst bloom on record was in 2011, considered a 10 on the scale.

"Right now, we're looking at the second-worst bloom we have had since 2011," Stumpf said.

Although scientists released an early prediction in the spring saying the algae would not be as bad as last year, heavy storms throughout June have made their forecast more dire.

Stumpf and other scientists spoke Thursday during the annual harmful algal bloom forecast at the Ohio State University's Stone Lab on Gibraltar island.The forecast is only for the Western Basin, which stretches from Toledo to Huron.

"This is a huge problem for the Western Basin, but it is not the entire lake," Stumpf said. "You can enjoy the lake while this is going on. Most of the lake will be fine most of the time."

The algae usually starts blooming in late July and moves west to east, he said.

Some algae has been found on the Maumee Bay and the open lake, but there is not yet a large bloom, scientists said.

The Sandusky Bay also has a large bloom of a type of harmful algae called planktothrix, which produces the same toxin as the algae on the main lake. But that bloom regularly shows up early in the year, Doug Kane, associate professor of biology at Defiance College and professor at Stone Lab, has said.

Phosphorous from fertilizer runoff, sewer plants and other sources fuels the algae, which is really a bacteria, called microcystis. Rain contributed to large amounts of runoff in June, sending more water into the Maumee River, which is the largest tributary on Lake Erie and the Great Lakes and into Lake Erie, said Laura Johnson, research scientist at the Heidelberg University's National Center for Water Quality Research.

Microcystis can produce the toxin microcystin, which can sicken people and pets. The algae threatens the lake's multi-billion-dollar tourism industry and local drinking water plants, which have been working for years on testing and treating the toxin from algae.

Harmful algae is a worldwide problem, and Lake Erie could help other areas around the country and the world because scientists have been studying the issue and have a good understanding of the problem here, Stumpf said.

Last year, the algae forecast a bloom of 6 on the scale, and that forecast was deemed accurate.

Although the algae is expected to be severe, that does not mean water supplies will be contaminated or that algae will move east of the Western Basin, Stumpf said. There were no issues with drinking water in 2011, he said.

"We have advance warning, which can reduce risk," he said. "There is no reason to expect that there will be any problem from a water point of view."

The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency has been working with water plants along the Western Basin on testing and treatment techniques, Stumpf said. The Ottawa County water treatment plant has dealt with the problem for years and has a regular system for testing and treatment, Sanitary Engineer Kelly Frey has said.

Weather likely is the deciding factor in where the bloom will go and whether it will be a problem for water plants, he said.

Last year, the algae produced toxin, and weather pushed the algae and toxin around the Toledo water intake causing the toxin to get into the drinking water plant, Stumpf said. At the same time, however, the Port Clinton area did not have much of a bloom.

In 2011, the algae stretched to Cleveland because wind and weather pushed it 100 miles east, and then a calm October caused it to settle in that area, he said. When the water is calm, the microcystis – which looks like bright green clumps – floats on the surface, but it can become dispersed in the water on windy days, Stumpf said.

"The blooms change with wind direction and move around quite a bit," he said. "This is not something that is covering the whole region at one time."

Meanwhile, scientists, lawmakers and interest groups continue to work toward stopping the algae. Several organizations – starting with the Ohio Phosphorous Task Force II in 2013 – have recommended reducing the amount of phosphorous getting into Lake Erie by 40 percent.

On June 13, Ohio, Michigan and Ontario signed an agreement to work to reduce the phosphorous by 40 percent by 2025.

If that reduction can be made, the algal blooms on Lake Erie would look more like the mild 2012 bloom – one of the smallest on record – nine years out of 10, said Jeff Reutter, special advisor to Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Lab and U.S. co-chair of the Objectives and Targets Task Team of Annex 4 of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement.

"There's a weakness in our strategy here, and the weakness is climate change," Reutter said. "If we continue to have the kind of rains we're having now, it changes this."

Climate change has contributed to the heavy rains that drenched the region this month, and it could cause heavier blooms – even with the 40-percent reduction, he said.

Farmers have already been working to reduce how much phosphorous and nitrogen – which can contribute to the algae – are leaving their land. Funding has been available in recent years for conservation practices like filter strips at the edge of fields and cover crops, which both help stop fertilizer from leaving the land.

The Ohio Legislature passed a bill earlier this year, which takes effect in 2017, that bans farmers from applying fertilizer and manure on frozen and rain-soaked ground, and a law requiring them to take a certification course that helps them know how much fertilizer is needed on their land and when to spread it.

Colleges and universities around the state also are working on projects to examine all angles of the algae problem – from ensuring drinking water is safe to human health and how the toxin might affect fish, said Chris Winslow, Ohio Sea Grant interim director.

"There is a tourism industry that needs a healthy lake," he said. "We also know that agriculture is an important part of this state, too"

In March, OSU also started research through its Field to Faucet program on ways to help farmers keep nutrients from fertilizer on their fields, said Jay Martin, OSU professor and faculty lead for Field to Faucet. The program is looking at developing a manure recycling program for farmers that would remove phosphorous and nitrogen from the manure and aims to develop other tools for farmers.

Through the Field to Faucet program, 6,500 Ohio farmers have been trained on applying fertilizer, Martin said.

mksmith@gannett.com

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Twitter: @kristinasmithNM

Online

To track harmful algal blooms on Lake Erie, visit www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/waterQuality/. To sign op for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's weekly harmful algal bloom bulletin, visit http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/Centers/HABS/lake_erie_hab/signup.html.