It’s very tempting to dismiss the Iowa caucuses as much ado about almost nothing: As Iowa goes, so goes . . . Iowa, and little more. But, despite its inherent myopia, the early part of the 2012 primary season has managed to be clarifying. Indeed, by combining the most recent survey evidence, we can learn a great deal about the state of the contemporary Republican Party.

Put simply, its dominant concerns are economic—especially the federal budget deficit. It distinguishes between candidates’ stances on the issues and their leadership/presidential qualities, and it gives a great deal of weight to the latter. The party has a grudging respect for Mitt Romney (a plurality in Iowa regards him as having “strong principles”), and it has concluded, rightly, that he has the best chance of beating President Obama next year. (Fully 41 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa now believe this, as do 63 percent of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.) At this point, then, Romney has to be regarded as the odds-on favorite to win the nomination.

I’ll focus on two late-December polls, by PPP and CNN/Time. PPP’s deals only with Iowa, while CNN/Time includes a New Hampshire survey as well. As Nate Silver has pointed out, CNN/Time survey only registered Republicans in Iowa, a decision that is hard to understand, given that between one fifth and one quarter of Republican caucus attenders are likely to be Democrats and Independents who switch their registration that day, as the party rules permit.

This is a distinction with a difference. Both surveys show Mitt Romney leading among Republicans, but PPP gives Ron Paul the overall lead, reflecting his strong performance among Independents and Democrats. CNN/Time puts Rick Santorum at 16 percent, a finding widely cited as evidence of a late-breaking Santorum surge. But Santorum is more appealing to core Republicans than he is to Independents and Democrats, accounting for some of the difference between CNN/Time and PPP, which pegs him at 10 percent.

Still, there is some basis for believing that Santorum has what market watchers call “upside potential.” As PPP points out, Santorum has the best favorability numbers (56 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable) of any candidate in Iowa, and he’s also the most frequent second-choice candidate of voters. CNN/Time provides additional evidence. When Iowa Republicans are asked who has the best personal characteristics and presidential qualities, Santorum places third with 18 percent, trailing only Romney (25 percent) and Paul (19 percent). When Republicans are asked who is most likely to agree with them on the issues, Santorum again ranks third, at 17 percent, behind Paul (22 percent) and Romney (18 percent). (By contrast, Rick Perry gets only 12 percent for both personal qualities and issue agreement, suggesting a more limited potential for moving up.) Given all this, a third-place finish for Santorum would not be all that surprising.