In some central and western areas on Murray-Darling no ground water can be accessed by bores, as dams run close to dry

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Towns in western and central New South Wales, including Dubbo, Nyngan, Cobar, Walgett and Tamworth, are facing a crisis in their water supplies within a few months unless it rains, prompting emergency planning by water authorities.

And on properties throughout the Murray-Darling basin, irrigators are bracing for their water entitlements to be reduced to around 10% of their usual allocations, which will severely constrain agricultural production.

A week before the election, the Murray–Darling Basin Authority issued a “sobering assessment” of the outlook for the Murray Darling river system in the communique from its monthly meeting.

“Since July 2018, inflows to the River Murray System have remained in the driest 7% of records, the head of River Management,” the executive director, Andrew Reynolds, told the board.

In other words, in the 114 years of record-keeping, this result is among the nine or 10 driest years. And it’s getting worse.

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This will ignite new political challenges for the re-elected Morrison government, both in the bush and among city voters who, thanks to the mass fish kills at Menindee Lakes, have become aware that all is not well with the $13bn plan.

The NSW government this week sent a team to 13 of the state’s towns to discuss what to do about their water supplies and to assess the impact on businesses of what is unfolding as a prolonged and severe drought.

For some towns the crisis will hit within one to three months, depending on whether there is any rainfall. For others it will be little longer.

The Burrendong Dam which services towns like Dubbo, Cobar and Nyngan on the Macquarie river, is at 5.9% and even with stringent water restrictions, will be empty within 12 months on current trajectory. The problem is there is no ground water that can be accessed by bores, so authorities are exploring the option of building emergency pipelines.

In Tamworth, there might be water for the town from the Peel river, but if it stops flowing, the chicken-processing plant downstream has just three to four days of water in storage and will need to close.

Ditto the copper mining operation at Cobar.

In the Northern basin of the Murray Darling, irrigators can expect to get zero allocations for low-security water entitlements and around 10% of their high-security water holdings.

The allocations for the next water year will be announced on 1 July, though they can be upgraded if it rains.

But the authorities are worried.

Reynolds told the Guardian the MDBA was now planning towards a dry scenario for managing the river system though 2019/20.

Rainfall in the northern part of the Murray Darling basin typically comes between September and November, he said. But at this stage, there are ominous signs it will stay dry and this follows an extremely dry 12 months.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Department of Primary Industries workers install aerators in the Darling River around Menindee in January to try and avoid another mass fish kill. Photograph: The Guardian

The Bureau of Meteorology said its indicators “have been close to El Niño thresholds over the past several months” – signalling a prolonged dry weather pattern – but “signs have emerged of a weakening of these patterns”.

“As a result, the outlook has has been downgraded to “El Niño WATCH. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2019 is approximately 50%, which is still double the normal likelihood,” the BOM said.

With little rainfall and very dry soils, almost no water is reaching the river system, and inland dams are falling. Unless spring rains fall, the Murray Darling basin will be in the grip of a crisis.

Allocations are a state function and are continually reviewed Andrew Reynolds

The cotton industry in the north of New South Wales and southern Queensland is likely to plant about a quarter of the crop it planted in 2017 and will rely on ground water to survive, said the general manager of Cotton Australia, Michael Murray.

In the south, there is a real prospect of a crisis along the Murray as irrigators struggle to get the allocations they need to water permanent crops such as almonds, citrus and grapes.

The dam system in the Murray Darling overall is at 28% with just 6,385GL in storage. But this figure masks the problem. More than a third of the water is in the Dartmouth dam in north-east Victoria, which is currently 64% full.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Sheep stuck in the outfall channel at Lake Cawndilla near Menindee NSW. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

On the Darling, many dams are effectively empty, such as the Keepit dam on the Namoi, with just 0.9%, the Burrendong dam on the Macquarie river at 6% and the Menindee Lakes at just 1.1%.

It means that if the prolonged dry continues, many towns will face the same sort of crisis as Walgett, which ran out of water last summer and was forced to truck in water or rely on bore water with high salinity levels.

Reynolds said the water available will be allocated to critical human water needs and stock watering first, followed by high security water entitlements, then lower security water.

“Allocations are a state function and are continually reviewed,” he said.

But he said lower security holders were likely to get zero allocations and high security will be low allocations or even zero.

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For irrigators, the current scenario is for almost no water to be available from the Darling and limited water from the Murray. South Australia has warned that high security allocations could be as low as 14% of usual volume.

The MDBA was also briefed on the priorities for water for the environment during 2019/20.

During last summer, there were calls from both state and federal politicians for environmental water to be made available for agriculture, despite the legislation preventing sales of commonwealth environmental water except in very limited circumstances.

But there will be almost no water available for environmental flows, as environmental water allocations will be reduced in the same proportion as other water holders.

More mass fish kills will probably occur as the weather warms.The MDBA made note of “the critically important role of environmental water during drought”.

“This water can be used to preserve important habitats and refuges for the animals, plants and birds of the Basin. The priorities will be publicly released by the MDBA in the coming months,” it said.

It is likely that the agriculture and water minister, David Littleproud, a National party MP from Queensland, will keep the challenging portfolio. He has already signalled he will look at measures to improve transparency and the administration of the plan, as recommended by the Productivity Commission.