There’s no bigger game on Texas A&M’s 2015 schedule than the one that’s about to be played Saturday afternoon between the undefeated Aggies and top ten Alabama. It’s the contest that could seriously jump start A&M’s run to the SEC title game while it’s basically an elimination game for the Tide (just like every game for them from here on out.

A&M defensive end Myles Garrett has 7.5 sacks and three forced fumbles this season for the Aggies

Alabama is favored by 4.5 points and shut out the Aggies 59-0 last season in Tuscaloosa. However, despite being an underdog, the A&M team facing the Tide is much better than the one that got drilled last season and probably more akin to those that split a pair of entertaining contests with the SEC’s perennial powerhouse in 2012 and 2013.

So, without further ado, here’s the five ways that the Aggies take down Alabama this upcoming Saturday.

Generate explosive plays….I’ve already written an article about this but in every game that the Tide have lost since 2010 they have given up at least five explosive plays of over 13 yards. This number holds up regardless of where the game is played, the type of offense Alabama is facing, turnovers, special teams…it’s a constant.

Teams that can vertically attack the weak spots of Alabama’s defense (outside the numbers in the passing game and inverted veer in the running game) are teams that usually generate enough big plays to win. That means that you have to hold the ball, protect, and take some shots down the field off of play action, even if you are not running the ball well. You might have to incur some sacks but the risk/reward is very promising. The Aggies generated five explosive plays against Alabama in 2012 despite allowing five sacks and won the game.

Turnovers…most teams that lose the turnover battle lose football games. Everyone remembers that the Aggies were +3 in that category in 2012; what they forget is that they were -1 a year later when they lost.

Alabama typically doesn’t turn over the ball a lot which makes it a lot harder to beat them. They run the ball, stop the run, and wear you down by playing a relatively risk free brand of ball. However, since the arrival of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, Alabama has started taking more risks on offense in order to try to match the spread offenses that are more prevalent in the SEC these days. In addition, their quarterback play has declined from A.J. McCarron (good game manager), Blake Sims (better game manager at home than on the road), and Jacob Coker (on pace to throw a dozen picks this season and already has two games with two picks).

Coker isn’t the most mobile quarterback and his decision making hasn’t been very good. He’s also missing receivers like Amari Cooper from last season and his pass protection has been lacking at times as well. They’ve also had to play from behind against Ole Miss and Arkansas.

Alabama’s turnover margin has slowly eroded over the years from +33 between 2010 and 2012 to +2 in 2013, -2 last season, and 0 this season. Is there any coincidence that they’ve lost five games in the past two and a half seasons? Probably not.

Drew Kaser is averaging over 50 yards a punt this season

On the other hand, Texas A&M is getting better at ball security as the season goes along. They’re now +2 for the season and +4 in the past two games. The defense has become opportunistic as they’ve improved their athleticism and length to the point that they get more people to the ball and are more likely to strip it. Defensive ends Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall and nickel Donovan Wilson have forced eight fumbles this season. More importantly, quarterback Kyle Allen has zero turnovers in his past two games. He’s making better decisions and not taking the chances that he was earlier in the year. Running back Tra Carson hasn’t turned it over in the past two games either.

A&M’s offense is going to be under a lot of pressure on Saturday but Alabama probably needs a short field this season more than they have in a while. If the Aggies don’t provide the Tide with those kinds of breaks, they’ll have to work that much harder to score points.

Myles Garrett versus Cameron Robinson….the big left tackle for Alabama got beaten by Garrett in protection drills when both played in the 2015 Under Armour game. Robinson has a great pedigree but he has struggled at times this season with his hands and footwork, particularly against an inside rush.

On the other hand, Garrett has emerged as a monster. He’s got length, get off, bend, and plays hard every down. Amazingly enough, despite a pre season worth of hype and ample evidence on film, people haven’t resorted to doubling him on a consistent basis (although they do chip him and use their hands quite freely with him). Many teams go entire series without lining up a running back to his side of the field to help out in pass protection. In addition, he’s improved his technique against the rush and can run down plays away from him. As a result, his numbers are staggering: 7.5 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss, one pass broken up, and three forced fumbles. In addition, he’s got six quarterback hurries which means that even when he doesn’t get to the quarterback it makes it hard for someone to hold the ball and get it downfield on long yardage situations. That has contributed to A&M allowing opponents to convert just 30% of their third downs this season.

He’s certainly capable of not just hurrying Coker into bad decisions but also stopping the run (something that A&M is vulnerable to). If Garrett rules this matchup, he can take away almost the entire side of the field, something that Alabama isn’t used to.

Special teams….Alabama’s aren’t. They rank in the bottom half of the SEC in both punt and kickoff return yardage. They miss return specialist Christion Jones very badly as he either scored touchdowns himself or helped set the table for Alabama to have shorter fields offensively, both of which are essential to a team that wants to run the ball and not take risks on offense.

However, the Tide’s deficiencies on special teams go across the board. They rank in the bottom half of the SEC in every special teams category save punt coverage. They don’t get downfield like they used to even though they’ve continued to recruit speed. Field goal kicker Adam Griffith is just 6 of 12 on the season and punter J.K. Scott is averaging TEN yards less a punt than A&M’s Drew Kaser.

Again, for a team that wants to be conservative on offense and win close games, you have to be able to win special teams to generate the hidden yardage that can make the difference in a close game….and Alabama can’t do that these days.

In contrast, much maligned kicker Taylor Bertolet has hit 9 of 11 field goals this season, is one of the better kickoff guys in the country, and has recorded 54% of his kickoffs as touchbacks this season. Punt returner Christian Kirk leads the SEC with nearly double the average per return of the second best player in that category. A&M’s recruiting has brought in the type of speed that has allowed them to cover kickoffs better than everyone else in the SEC save Vanderbilt. Between Kirk and Kaser, the Aggies are capable of flipping field position on opponents by at least an average of a first down per exchange which translates into the equivalent of multiple first downs over the course of a game.

Home field advantage….Kyle Field is in the process of being restored to a place that’s one of the noisiest in college football due to an improved defense that no longer sucks the life out of home crowds rather than its recent reconstruction. The Aggies could be better against the run but the days when teams rolled up and down the field against A&M for 500 yards and seemed unstoppable appear to be over.

When a home crowd stays in a game, they keep a team in a game emotionally. That’s important when the home team is under duress and needs some energy to make those crucial plays that separate the winners and losers. It’s especially important to a young team that still depends on a number of underclassmen to play key roles on offense and defense.

Texas A&M’s fans have generated that type of energy this season when it needed red zone stands or to get the ball, even at neutral sites in Dallas and Houston. Although Alabama played extremely well with its season on the line at Georgia a couple of weeks ago and they did the same thing numerous last year (most notably at Arkansas and LSU), it’s the Aggies who stand to benefit more from their home field energy than Alabama does from their big game experience.

