Happy draft day! Before it all begins this evening, I’d like to introduce “expected pick range”, something that I have been using throughout Silver Seven’s draft profiles series.

The goal is to identify pre-draft where we should roughly expect a player to be taken. So as the draft is happening we can have a rough idea of whether the pick was a reach, steal, or right in a comfortable range.

The basis I’m using for this is a list of consolidated rankings gathered from 60 different scouting sources. Afterwards, each placement is converted into draft values based on the research by Michael Schuckers. The average gives us one specific value, although a standard deviation on either end gives us a range of draft values. Once converted back into picks, then we’re left with a player’s “expected pick range”.

Below is a table of every player ranked by at least ten of the 60 sources, along with their expected pick range. If they’re taken before the “Lower” value, it means the pick was probably a reach (for example, if Ottawa takes Connor McMichael at pick #19). Picking a player after the “Upper” value would be considered a steal, so if Alex Newhook dropped to pick #19, it would be an incredible value pick. “Count” is just an indicator of how many sources ranked each prospect.

It’s not perfect, but I will certainly be referring back to it constantly. Here’s the link to the original spreadsheet, which also includes the list of sources as well as an additional 260 prospects that received less attention from the consolidated rankings.