Loading Looking first at their injuries, there's no doubt they've put a dampener on what both can, and have, produced. For Collingwood, Dayne Beams, Mason Cox and Tom Langdon are all done for the season with a host of others fighting to make it back in time for finals. Being a power forward who relies more on short bursts than the gut-running that comes with playing through the midfield, Jordan De Goey should be right first up. But after a minor setback in his return from a hamstring injury already, there's always an element of risk.

If you add in question marks over the durability of Darcy Moore and Jamie Elliott it means the Magpies are no certainties to get through September unscathed. Steele Sidebottom's ruptured testicle adds to their misfortune, and while he won't lose a whole lot of conditioning it makes you wonder whether missing the top four might prove a blessing in disguise. Essendon are unlikely to make an impact in the finals. Credit:AAP Of course, the double chance is valuable and, yes, the Magpies can still secure that luxury if results fall their way. But there could also be an argument that it would be more beneficial if Collingwood finished fifth and were forced to roll into each week of the finals with a game to play – much like the Western Bulldogs did when they re-integrated so many injured players after the pre-finals bye in 2016.

Loading While the bye is great in ensuring the best players are playing in the biggest games of the year, those on the comeback trail need gametime. It's hardly ideal if the likes of De Goey, Moore and even Sidebottom have played just one match in more than a month leading into a preliminary final. Essendon have had their own concerns, with nearly all of the club's most valuable players ruled out at some stage during the year. Their best forward, Joe Daniher, is done for the season, so too last year's best and fairest winner Devon Smith.

Loading David Zaharakis is unlikely to get back from an ankle injury, while the club's best defender, Michael Hurley, and ruckman, Tom Bellchambers, have both missed large chunks. Dyson Heppell, Orazio Fantasia and Jake Stringer are among several others who've been managing concerns for some time. But as we know, a heavy injury toll can be overcome. Richmond hung tough during the middle of the year when they were without all of their so-called "big four". Collingwood reached a grand final last year, despite again losing so many key personnel. But this year, it's a combination of injury and form that I believe will be their downfall.

Even when they had a relatively healthy list early in the season, I don't think they reached anywhere near the heights of 2018. Whether the Magpies have tinkered with their game plan or haven't executed as well as last year, their ball movement has been stagnant. There just hasn't been the same "mojo" about their footy. The best teams have a distinct brand. Hawthorn, at their peak, were a methodical, system-based team. West Coast have their own style, so too Richmond.

But while you might know how those teams are going to play, at their best, they're still tough to stop. The Magpies, on the other hand, just don't seem to have the same predictability among themselves that they had last year. Has injury and a lack of continuity played its part? Probably. But that is almost impossible to measure. Essendon are in the same boat. They might have missed finals 12 months ago, but I reckon the footy they were playing at the end of last year was better than what they've dished up for most of this season.