Without playing a single down, Stony Brook is one of this week’s biggest winners

The Seawolves control their own playoff destiny, but they are in need of a signature win. Luckily, Delaware is coming to town.

On Friday, the day before the Seawolves headed into their much-needed bye week, we outlined the best-case scenario around the Colonial Athletics Association. The biggest takeaway was this: chaos in the standings benefits the Seawolves’ playoff chances.

And boy did chaos deliver. James Madison and Towson — two of the teams ahead of Stony Brook in the standings — suffered losses on Saturday, none more surprising than the Dukes. JMU came in favorited by three touchdowns and were thoroughly demolished by a New Hampshire team that, while dangerous, will finish the season with a losing record.

After starting their season looking like the best team in the conference if not the country, Towson has now dropped two in a row, with games at Elon and home against James Madison looming. Suddenly the Tigers’ playoff chances are very much in peril.

Meanwhile, Delaware needed a last second touchdown to escape losing to a winless Albany team, and Elon nearly allowed Rhode Island to storm back and steal a road win.

When the dust settled on Monday, the Seawolves found themselves up three spots to #15 in the AFCA Coaches Poll, and a flabbergasting four spots in the STATS FCS Media Poll. Stony Brook, which was the only team on a bye this week, was the second biggest mover in the Top 25 polls.

Of course, Stony Brook still has a lot of work to do. With two games remaining on their schedule, the Seawolves — sitting at 6–3 overall and 4–2 in the CAA — control their own playoff fate. Two wins all but guarantees them a playoff bid, but what happens if they finish 7–4?

Seven wins is the unofficial line of demarcation separating the teams under consideration for an at large bid and those who are sent home. But the makeup of those seven wins is equally imperative.

For Stony Brook, their signature win this season is probably the 52–14 drubbing of Rhode Island, which was then a ranked team. Of their other five wins, two were against lowly non-conference opponents Fordham and Bryant, the other three were against Richmond, Villanova, and New Hampshire. Those three conference wins would have raised eyebrows at the start of the season, but all three teams had disappointing seasons, and none will be in the playoff conversation at the end of Week 12.

The fact of the matter is, Stony Brook does not have a win against a team currently ranked inside the Top 25. They don’t have a win against a team that will likely make the playoffs. And while their wins have looked convincing at times — at the same New Hampshire team that just blitzed James Madison; the domination of Richmond — they have not had to face Elon or Maine, they looked wildly overmatched against Towson, and lost (albeit narrowly) to James Madison.

Which brings us to this coming weekend. Stony Brook will host Delaware, currently ranked #11/#12 in the two national polls and tied with Maine atop the CAA standings. We were hesitant to call the James Madison game two weeks ago a “must-win,” but make no mistake—if Stony Brook wants to return to the playoffs this year, they have to beat Delaware on Saturday.

Chase Kiddy, who covers the FCS for Hero Sports, agrees that Stony Brook is in need of a signature win.

“The CAA is so damn wild this year that it’s tough to say,” he told Brookland on Sunday. “I think y’all definitely look the part, but I think if you wanted to build a case against Stony Brook, you’d say that the key wins just aren’t there. Got blasted in a game with Towson that’s not really emblematic of who the team is, and then lose the tight game at JMU. Weak non-con schedule. So I do think Stony Brook really needs the Delaware game to feel good going into November 18.”

That last week of the season is, as usual, reserved for the rivalry game against Albany. The Danes play host this year, and while Albany is the worst team in the conference this season, the home team has won every iteration of this game since 2013. In other words, this game is no cakewalk either.

Could Stony Brook sneak into the playoffs at 7–4 with a win over Albany and a loss to the Blue Hens? Maybe. “I think the committee could respect the CAA and put five teams in, with Stony Brook as that fifth team at 7–4, even without a huge, central resume win,” Kiddy added.

As it stands, there are six teams in the CAA — Elon, James Madison, Delaware, Towson, Maine, and Stony Brook — with a realistic chance at the playoffs. The selection committee could grant at-large bids to four of them, perhaps even five. Either way, someone is getting left behind. Luckily for Stony Brook, thanks to a chaotic weekend in the conference, they control their own destiny.