posted by Nahaz

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Highest/Lowest Single Match Statistics (Page 1)

Most Kills (Across Both Teams):

Largest Critical Hit

Highest GPM

Latest First Blood

Most Courier Kills

Earliest Roshan

Hero Predictions, In a single game (Page 3)

Hero with Most Kills

Hero with Most Deaths

Hero with Most Assists

Hero with Most Last Hits

Hero with the Highest GPM

Hero with Most Tower Damage

Hero with Highest Total Healing

Hero Predictions, Across All Games in the Qualifier (Page 4)

Hero with the Most Kills

Hero with the Most Deaths

Hero with the Most Assists

Hero picked the most

Hero banned the most

Hero with the most first bloods

Number of heroes never picked or banned

In this edition of Stats Corner, I’ve enlisted help from Martin Decoud, project director at datdota.com, and Noxville, Dota stats writer for 2p.com. We consider the single game predictions on the first page, followed by ‘hero’ predictions (pages 3 and 4 of the compendium). Our final set of predictions for statistics across all qualifier games (page 2, e.g., total number of rampages) will be released separately on datdota.com’s blog . We agree on many, but not all, of the predictions, and have structured this article as a panel discussion to give readers a better feel for how we got to our answers (besides, I wanted to see if my stat-minded colleagues share my new Mirana fetish!) We’ve also included a few comments from members of the community who provided us with feedback on earlier drafts.There is plenty of room for additional debate, and we hope you will join in on Twitter (@NahazDota, @datdota, and @NoxvilleZA), on the jD forums, and in the comments below! Enjoy!-NahazEDIT: Our Page 2 predictions are now live on the datdota blog As these questions are more purely quantitative in nature, we adopted a Monte Carlo approach. We looked at three data sets: all games since 6.79, all games since 6.79 between any two teams in the European qualifiers, and all available TI4 qualifier games. The size of the data sets is approximately 3750, 225, and 150 respectively. The TI4 qualifier data includes the America Qualifiers, SEA Qualifiers, and most of day 1 of the China Qualifiers.From each data set, we draw 10,000 random samples of 54-59 individual games (the number of matches that will be played in the TI4 EU Qualifiers - the range is due to playoff series being best-of-three or best-of-five). For each of these samples, we find the value of each statistic (for example, the highest GPM achieved by an individual hero in any single game) and report histograms of these values across the 10,000 replications. The vertical axis of each histogram reflects the percentage of replications in which values in a particular range occur.: 0-20, 21-40,..,181-200,200 or More: 81-100 ( 88 : 81-100 ( 100 Note that this data is for total kills, which is slightly different than the score presented on the top of the screen during matches, which counts all deaths (for example, to Neutrals). There is one qualifier game with over 100 kills which accounts for the 101-120 simulation results.: Anything below 60 or over 120 looks highly unlikely. Of the three remaining choices ‘’ looks like the best choice.: I’ll go with, simply because I don’t expect the EU matches to last as long as those we’ve seen in the China TI4 Qualifiers - there’s a good chance we see a clowny game or two toward the end, but those tend not to drag on too long.. This translates into a fairly epic 40-50 kill a side game, I’m sure there’ll be at least one of these kinda games: either a middle-of-the-road classic CIS kill fest, or a slower drawn out game which is a nail biter to the end.: 0-200, 201-400,..,1801-2000,2001 or More: 1601-1800 ( 1601 , dat Divine + Crit Liquid Support player at around 55:15)SEA Qualifiers Answer: 2001 or More ( 2049 , Ember Spirit at around 55:10 on Naga with actual damage done of 752)We’re assuming that this is the same as last year and that the value that is being looked for is the red crit damage value that flashes on a crit (the red number with the lightning bolt) and not the actual damage taken from said crit. Due to technical limitations, this simulation data only uses 6.80 and later games (games prior to 6.80 used an outdated replay parser). The sample size for team data is 162 games and 2209 games for the 6.80 and later data.: The simulations aren’t as helpful here as they are in the other questions. Any pick less than 1,000 is very unlikely. Any pick over 1,200 has a reasonable chance of being correct with a couple of options sticking out. The overall data and the team data suggests 1201 to 1400 while the qualifier data suggests over 2000 (this is probably a bit overstated). I’m going to withThis is the most difficult pick: I’ll go withhere. Phantom Assassin is getting some play on the Western scene recently - Moon, Pajkatt, and Illidan all played her this month, albeit in losses. Toss in the chance of a late game Ember Spirit and I think there’s a good chance we break 2k.: Less that 500 (sic) , 500-600,..,1301-1400,1400 or More: 801-900 ( 828 : 801-900 ( 853 A caveat here is that remade games have bugged GPM data. Only games where the final max GPM was over 350 were included.: Below 700 GPM and over 1100 GPM are highly unlikely (Alchemist is the only hero to get over 1100 GPM in a competitive match). I’m picking ‘’ over ‘901-1000.’: I’ll go a bit against the odds here and pick. We’ve seen 900 GPM broken 13 times in pro matches since March 1st, including by VP’s Illidan on Drow Ranger, MYM’s Ryze on Naga, and by both RoX’s Bzz and PR’s Moon on Luna.: I think it’s pretty close between ‘801-900’ and ‘901-1000’ looking at the history of the teams involved, but I’ll agree with Martin’s simulation numbers and go with: Before the horn, 0-2 minutes, 3-5 minutes,...,15-17 minutes, 18 minutes or moreWe’re assuming that by 0-2 minutes, 3-5 minutes etc. that means 0:00 - 2:59, 3:00 - 5:59 etc. So, for example, the '6-9' heading on the graph below corresponds with the '6-8 minutes' option among the compendium choices.: 6-8 minutes 7:45 : 6-8 minutes 6:18 : 6 - 8 and 9 - 11 look like the two most viable options. I’m going with: It’s a toss-up betweenand 9-11; I’ll go with the former. In this tournament, later first bloods are less about passive play than about teams’ willingness to trade towers early on in the game in the current meta.seems good. Given the pretty aggressive playstyle we see coming out ofso many of the teams in this qualifier, I’d be pretty shocked if this was more than 12 minutes.: 0,1,2,3,4,5 or more: 2 (multiple matches)** 5 or more (intentionally fed)**: More than 3 courier kills in a game is very rare. It has only happened 10 times since patch 6.79. The best choices are 2, 3, or 5 or more. The last choice is more of a ‘shenanigans’ type of action where a player intentionally feeds a bunch of couriers in order to troll the community. I’m going with, though I think someone courier feeding is likely.: This is a tough call as I do think we’re likely to see some clowning in the group stages - fans love those item drops! More seriously, NAR and Liquid both camped walking couriers mid in the Americas final (including successfully in game 5 against Qojqva’s SF) and I expect this tactic to show up in the EU games. If I could rule out intentional feeding, I’d go with 3.: All samples point towards 2 as the most common although I’m inclined to go for 3, even though there’s only just about 55 matches, at 33%/25%/22% it’s close enough for me to assume there’ll be at least one instance of this..: Before the horn, After the horn: Push ( Roshan killed during the horn sounding For the data below, we’re assuming that the horn cut-off is when the horn sounds 10 seconds prior to the match beginning. Ie if Roshan is killed prior to -0:10 on the game clock the correct answer is ‘Before the horn’ and if not the correct answer is ‘After the horn.’ That could be an incorrect assumption.In 3,550 games since patch 6.79 was released there were 8 Roshan kills prior to the horn sounding. In games between any two teams in the Qualifiers there has never been a Roshan kill prior to the horn (though there was one match where Rosh was killed during the horn and another one prior to 0:00). In the Qualifier data, there have been 2 in 145 matches.* The probability of Roshan being killed ‘After the horn’ based on the data:Data54 Games59 GamesSince 6.7989%88%EU Teams100%100%TI4 Quals47%44%: In a controversial repeat of the America Qualifiers, Roshan will be killed during the horn. Reddit threads will be created and bubble over with rage, people will keep asking me (as if I have any idea), and Valve will call in local experts in an attempt to settle the dispute. In all seriousness, I’m going to go against the team and historical data and pick. Seeing New Elements pick a line-up that had level 1 Rosh written all over it and still pull it off against a good team like DT NGC swayed me. Perhaps there is something about the Qualifier format that is conducive to early Roshans.: The qualifiers are some of the most intense and important games many teams will ever participate in. There’s a lot of cunning pocket strats, and a fair amount of cheese, so I’m pretty sure someone in the EU qualifiers will Rosh early, possibly with an interesting or obscure lineup.: I agree with Nox’s analysis, though Martin’s answer wins :) Before the qualifier began, I’d have guessed we’d see more pocket strats in the EU region than in any other. Though the conservative ‘Chinese Dota’ stereotype is in many ways false, I still find theRosh kill in the China qualifier compelling. These predictions can be tough - as we noted in some of the simulations above, there's a lot of randomness involved when trying to predict extreme games. Because the number of possibilities is so much larger, approaching this with the same kind of simulation approach used for Page 1 would be really tricky - so we've opted for a more traditional panel discussion. Templar Assassin and Timbersaw (Days 1-2): Slark Since 6.80, Ursa, Tiny, Axe, Huskar and Zeus all have higher than 7.5 average kills per game. In 6.81 this list became Zeus, Ursa, Meepo and Queen of Pain; an intersection of this being Ursa and Zeus, suggesting they’re possible picks. In the “most kills” top records ( datdota.com/records.php ) and you plot kill records in 6.81, Ursa and Zeus are on the list twice each, but Templar Assassin, Axe and Mirana are all on 4 kill records. Mirana has great average statistics, but not as many records in a single game. In the other qualifiers, we’ve seen some less frequently picked heroes (some are signature heroes) coming up with the most kills: Tinker, Axe, Wraith King, Templar Assassin, Timbersaw, Ursa. Whilst a Mirana is possibly going to be a hero with the most kills (possibly Pajkatt or Bzz), existing data between these teams indicates that somewhat less intuitive heroes have sometimes an insane number of kills. I’ll go with(just because of the sheer bulk of games she plays), but Ursa, Puck and Tiny are also decent picks. -Tough call. I'd like to pick the most popular hard carry but there doesn't seem to be a clear cut, go-to hard carry like Morphling at TI2 or Weaver at TI3. Another good choice would be an explosive or snowball mid but I don’t know who the dominant hero is going to be in that area. A safe choice would be Mirana, as we're likely to see a lot of Mirana in this tournament. I'm going to go with my gut and pick, though I think there are a lot of reasonable choices for this category. If I had to pick a hard carry for this, I'd probably choose Morphling or Tiny. -America Qualifiers Answer: Meepo SEA Qualifiers Answer: Nyx Assassin China Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): Nyx Assassin This is almost certainly going to be a support or initiating hero, as if a carry hero dies too many times the team will call most likely call gg. If we only consider 6.81 stats, and consider the most picked non-carries, coupled with their average deaths, Shadow Shaman, Io, Rubick and Shadow Demon are the heroes likely to have the most deaths (in decreasing order of average deaths). I’d go with Rubick, who’s picked 31.3% of the time and dies 5.3 times a game, but Shadow Demon is also a likely contender (picked 37.7% of the time and dying on average 5.2 times a game). It’s also to be expected that it’s more likely that one of the heroes that’s picked frequently will have an outlier...for me. -I agree with Nox’s reasoning, only I thinkis going to be slightly more picked than Shadow Demon. -America Qualifiers Answer: Dark Seer/Disruptor/BatriderSEA Qualifiers Answer: Elder Titan China Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): Clockwerk Disruptor is the only hero averaging double digit assists per match in 50+ 6.81 appearances; he totaled 234 assists in 20 appearances in the TI4 Americas Qualifier. I give a slight edge to, though, a hero who’s notched over 30 assists in a remarkable four different games since March 1st - my biggest concern is he’s been banned in 74% of drafts so far in 6.81. Shadow Demon is also a decent choice here with Shadow Poison and Disruption helping him get assists at all stages of the game. -I opened up tab after tab of recent tournaments and checked to see which hero had the most single game assists in each of those tournaments. The leaders: Beastmaster, Shadow Shaman, Batrider, Wisp, Vengeful Spirit, Disruptor, Naga, Wraith King, Dark Seer, Elder Titan, Clockwerk, Viper. Every tournament had a different leader in this category until a tournament had an assist leader that was already on that list. That tournament (TI4 America Qualifiers) had a three way tie for first place: Disruptor, Dark Seer, and Batrider. I can’t offer much guidance for this question. There’s a lot of randomness here.. -America Qualifiers Answer: Naga Siren SEA Qualifiers Answer: Morphling Naga Siren 2nd)China Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): Morphling (1367, all-time record)A hero has reached 850 or more last hits in a match only 20 times since stats began in mid-2012. Seven of these are by- and all but one of those have been in 2014. She’s an easy pick here. With Anti-Mage all but out of the meta, Morphling would be my second choice. -Hard to pick against. Tiny, Luna, and Morphling would be my honorable mentions. -America Qualifiers Answer: Shadow Fiend SEA Qualifiers Answer: Wraith King China Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): Tiny Since the fall in popularity of Alchemist, a few heroes have tried to take his place at the top of the GPM boards, but none have been as dominant. Luna appears 3 times in the top 10 for 6.81 and Shadow Fiend twice, but if you look further at the top 15, we see another 3 appearances of Luna and a second appearance of Antimage. I’m going to be boring and stick with, although Shadow Fiend or Tiny could dethrone Luna here. -Likely to be a safe lane carry or a farming solo-mid like a Naga or Shadow Fiend. Out of the safe lane carries, Luna is the best choice. I think another benefit that Luna has is she can reach a high GPM in a variety of ways: stacking and farming jungle creeps or ancients, playing the slow farm game with Midas, or being active and pushing towers and picking up kills. I’m going with. -The EU Qualifiers feature three players (Bzz, Moon, and Pajkatt) who have all broken 800 GPM onin 2014. RoX’s Bzz has actually done this three times, including a record 973 GPM against Next.kz in February. She’s the safe bet here, though SF, Naga, and Morph are all reasonable choices. -America Qualifiers Answer: Wraith King SEA Qualifiers Answer: Weaver China Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): Tiny A lot depends on whether this is “tower damage” or “building damage”. We’ve seen only ten matches in 2014 where a single hero has broken 12k building damage, and four of them have been by. Interestingly, three of the four were in sub-40 minute matches - a lot of this is coming from Moon Glaive bounces during t3/rax pushes. If it’s tower damage only, I’m more inclined to go with Lycan or Tiny, but Lycan was banned in every match (27 times) in the first day of the China Qualifiers, and we have multiple top-tier Luna players (including Moon and Bzz) on EU Teams that favor early pushing and aggression. It’s close, but I’ll stick with the Moon Rider. -I’m assuming the Tower Damage stat from the Valve API is going to be the basis of this and not building damage (datdota’s stat that adds tower damage and rax damage from the combat log). The first thing that comes to mind when reading this question is base destroyer. A hero demolisher like Tiny with Aghs, Lone Druid, or necro Lycan. However this is complicated by the fact that Treant can heal a tower. Looking at the most Tower Damage in the TI4 qualifiers , there are some unexpected names that show up mainly because they were matched against Treant. Maybe the best hero in this category is someone who doesn’t destroy towers too quickly, thus giving Treant enough time to heal them so they can get destroyed again. A good right clicker who doesn’t do too much tower damage until the hero gets a few major items. Someone like Morphling, Mirana, Weaver, or Shadow Fiend. Instead of going out on a limb, I’m going to go with a safe pick and choose. He won’t be a popular pick (other than Mirana though I’m not sure who the popular carries are going to be) but I could see him having at least one good game and taking this category. -I thinkas a split-pusher is the most likely to do a lot of tower damage. In the drafts he’s taken in it’s very possible that he takes 5+ towers by himself. If this is just general “building damage”, there could possibly be a Tiny turnaround game where he clears out several towers by himself -It might be worth considering the extremely high ban rate of Lycan at the moment and consider under which conditions teams actually let it through as a pick - to achieve this record, Lycan has to make it into a game and do well. -*Based on the API Hero Healing statThere are a couple of contenders for this title, Dazzle and Keeper of the Light (especially since his Aghanims rework) are right up there, but Witchdoctor could make a sneaky appearance to snatch this record. Based on the other qualifiers, Witchdoctor and Dazzle took the podium spots in this category, primarily Dazzle. I’d go with Dazzle. -In datdota's Stats -> Ability page, Illuminate (Spirit Form) has the healing done by KotL with Agh's under the 'Special' column. He's averaging 1,500 healing in 52 6.81 games with that ability. The most healing done in a match with that ability by KotL is SexyBamboe with 13,700 in a SEA Qualifier game . Next highest is 6,500.Meanwhile, Dazzle averages 8,500 healing per game and has 23 performances in 6.81 with more healing than 13,700 and 75 with over 6,500. Chen averages 3,000 per game with Hand of God and in 6.81 has topped out at 8,000 Hand of God healing. Voodoo Restoration averages 8,500 healing per game and in general crushes KotL Aghs. I can't really comment on Treant because while the Leach seed heal is tracked in the combat log, Living Armor is not.Sadly enough, all this discussion about healing abilities is a smoke screen. I’m not sure who to pick here mainly because I don’t know what source of data is going to be used to decide the answer. There are three different ways to figure healing that I know of: Valve's API data, the match's combat log, and each replay's combat summary. I’m not sure which of the three Valve will answer this question with. I'd been meaning to look into how the three sources of data differ (in theory they should all agree or largely agree) but I won't get to that in time. Hopefully by TI4 I'll have had a chance to investigate. What I do know is that Dazzle and Witch Doctor are well represented in healing in all three sources of data while KotL Aghs is not counted in the API data and Treant appears to not be fully represented in the combat log and API data compared to the combat summary data. Dazzle seems to be the safe pick. Him and Treant are likely to be the most picked of the healers, Dazzle has the highest upside, and Dazzle seems to be the most fairly represented in all three sources of data. Witch Doctor is similar to Dazzle in those regards with the exception that he is not picked nearly as much. Dazzle. - Predicting hero statistics across all games iseasier than for single matches, as the very extremes we were trying to predict before tend to get averaged out here. If you want to run the numbers yourself, draft stats can be found here (note the options to filter by patch and/or tournament), and hero stats for the first three TI4 Qualifier regions can be found here:America Qualifiers Answer: MiranaSEA Qualifiers Answer: InvokerChina Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): Morphling (Mirana 2nd)If what we’ve seen so far in 6.81 is any indication, this will be Mirana - and it won’t even be particularly close. Her 5.5 average kills per match in 6.81 may not seem that impressive, until you consider that she has 30% more appearances, and nearly twice as many wins, as any other hero in the current patch. -Mirana. She has the best combination of kill potential to likelihood of being picked of any hero in the pool. While I think she’ll start getting banned more often, I don’t think it will be to the extent necessary to pick against her here. -America Qualifiers Answer: Shadow DemonSEA Qualifiers Answer: Shadow DemonChina Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): TreantShadow Demon, Rubick, and Io/Wisp are the only heroes to average over 5 deaths per game in 6.81 in over 100 appearances. Scratch Wisp as he/she/it is often banned, and I’ll give the edge to Shadow Demon here, as he’s being picked up a bit more by Western teams currently. - NahazI like the most picked support to lead this category. Shadow Demon and Rubick have the right blend of being picked enough and dying a lot when picked. I’m going with Rubick, I think he’ll be picked slightly more than Shadow Demon. - datdotaAmerica Qualifiers Answer: MiranaSEA Qualifiers Answer: Shadow DemonChina Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): MiranaIn terms of (Average Assists * Times picked in 6.81), Mirana is in the lead by a huge amount (~3250). Following her are Sand King, Centaur, Rubick and Shadow Demon. I’d go with these somewhat raw statistics, as it will take a change in the way the European teams draft (banning out Mirana instead of Batrider or Lycan; or just ignoring Mirana altogether) to change this overwhelming favourite. - NoxvilleMirana again. Among hero’s picked more than 100 games in 6.81 there isn’t much variety in Assists per game. Most of those heroes are in the 7-10 assist per game range. For this question it’s best to go with the hero you feel is going to be the most picked. - datdotaAmerica Qualifiers Answer: MiranaSEA Qualifiers Answer: Treant ProtectorChina Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): MiranaMirana is the clear favourite here, picked in over 50% of all games ( datdota.com/stats.php?p=draft ), at the moment 14.1% more than the second most picked hero, Centaur Warrunner, and then followed by Shadow Demon. Unless we see drastic banning of this hero, this should be a safe bet. -Mirana again. I think she’s going to start getting banned more often, but I don’t see a strong alternative to pick. The support picture is led by Rubick and Shadow Demon but neither gets the respect of Mirana. The carry and offlaner meta is fragmented. Looking at patch 6.81 for the teams in the qualifiers, everyone seems to feel comfortable picking and playing Mirana (with the exception of VP who prefers to ban her). She’s versatile enough to fill any role and has been picked often in recent major European and western tournaments. -: Batrider: Batrider(Days 1-2): LycanLycan or Batrider are banned in nearly 75% of all games in 6.81. When looking at the European scene, specifically at recent matches involving the qualifier teams,seems to be more highly banned than Lycan, but it could be very close. -In addition to Batrider and Lycan, Invoker deserves some consideration too. Looking at patch 6.81 and European tournaments (D2CL Season 3, Excellent Moscow Cup, DreamLeague and the Summit EU) Batrider leads Lycan in ban %. Looking at the individual teams, the 6.81 draft data show an almost even split between the ban rate of the two heroes. Recently RoX.KiS and DOG/mouz appear to put a much higher ban priority on Batrider than Lycan. I’m going with. -Don't let the overall statistics or the China Qualifier fool you - Western teams are figuring Lycan out. Despite being banned in all 27 matches in Day 1 of the China Qualifiers, Lycan has actually been banned in 'only' 65% of pro Dota 2 matches in the last week, and has made it through the draft without being picked in banned 45 times (out of 190 games) in the last 7 days. By contrast,has made it through the draft onlytimes in 716 pro drafts on record during 6.81. -: Treant and Mirana (6)**: Shadow Demon (8)**I took a count of the games each hero has played since 6.79 started and the number of first bloods the hero had. Here’s the data . Also included in that data are the heroes in the SEA and America Qualifiers that got more than 1 first blood. Some heroes definitely have a higher rate of first blood. The highest is Tinker, getting first blood in 17.5% of matches played while the lowest is Abaddon at 2.6% of first bloods per game played. The most important thing is that the hero has to play a lot of games. The second most important factor is the hero’s first blood potential (that %).is likely to be picked a lot and has a good first blood % (14%). I’d put Shadow Demon, Treant, Rubick, and Invoker as honorable mentions. - datdotaSometimes you just have to pick something because it’s fun. I’ll go with Treant, and yes, I will be spamming ༼ ᕤºل͟º ༽ᕤ PUNCH HIM. -Choices: 0-5, 6-10, 11-15 … 96-100America Qualifiers Answer: 16-20.SEA Qualifiers Answer: 16-20.China Qualifier Answer (Days 1-2): 26-30.Here are some recent comparable tournaments:TournamentGamesDaysTeams# Not P/BanTI4 America Quals6851120TI4 SEA Quals5941018Summit: Eu Quals4319818TI4 China (Days 1-2)4521020Summit: America Quals368824Summit: Asia Quals3410834D2CL Season 34122121111-15, 16-20, and 21-25 are the most viable answers.appears to be the sweet spot. --@NahazDota, @datdota, and @NoxvilleZA