Fork in the Road for Bitcoin Price

The mainstream media along with millions around the world have been in awe of the Bitcoin price movements over the last couple months and in particular the last 7 days.

There has been an unprecedented bull run that has brought the Bitcoin price from just under $10 000 on Friday 21 June to nearly $14 000 on the Wednesday 26th then back to nearly $10 000 on Thursday. If you are new to cryptocurrency, welcome to the Bitcoin Price Rollercoaster.

Media Attention on Bitcoin Price

Skipping between different TV channels wouldn’t have prevented you from seeing talking heads commenting on Bitcoin’s price rise, all speculating on its cause. Theories ranged from the upcoming bitcoin halving to the approval of the LedgerX futures exchange and others simply apportioned it to a bear market rally. The level of media attention is a strong reminder of the last half of 2017 when bitcoin rallied from the low $3000’s to nearly $20 000.

What Does Technical Analysis Say?

As the end of the month approaches it is the perfect opportunity to assess things on this time frame, namely the monthly chart. Bitcoin price is still in an obvious uptrend but has yet to find its lower high which would technically be required to label it a real uptrend by a purist’s terms, so far a higher high has been achieved above $8547 on a closing basis at the end of May 2019.

To confirm the higher low on this time frame in the coming month of July would mean a drop from the current levels, if this is to happen next month the critical levels to watch on the monthly chart would be the $10 000 area first, it is likely to find bids waiting at this significant round number and if that had to fail one would expect interest at the $9200 area and finally at the $8500 mark.

A break below the $8500 mark would break established structures and would likely lead to much lower targets, however, this is unlikely at this stage and would need to be looked at if the higher levels of support are broken first.

The New Quarter

At the end of June 2019 we will be entering into a new quarter, July to end of September, with the previous quarter closing extremely bullish many, are postulating that we are likely to see a cool off. The current quarter is very close to a major pivot in the market and a close higher than $11 111 would increase the chances of much more upside to come. The pivot is a close above the top of the Bollinger band on the 3 month (quarterly) chart.





This is usually an indication of a strong trend and leans towards continuation. The previous time a quarterly period candle closed above the upper Bollinger band was on the 21st December 2016 closing at $966 and saw us make a run all the way to the ATH at nearly $20 000.



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