Let’s start with the formal, technical stuff.

Unless something changes, the UK will leave the EU with no deal on 29 March 2019, just over two months from now.

This is what MPs actually voted for 2017, by a vote of 494 to 122, when they agreed to start the Article 50 process. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, and most of their parties, already voted to try and reach a withdrawal agreement, while agreeing to leave the EU without a deal if no deal was agreed. That is the current position.

There are two ways that the UK can avoid a no-deal Brexit. These are both kind of obvious.

The only ways to avoid leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March are:

making a deal with the EU before 29 March Not leaving on 29 March

Let’s look at option 1 first.

Making a withdrawal agreement with the EU is really hard. There are 27 member countries with their own internal political dynamics. There are loads of complicated issues at stake. Many people thought that the UK would never be able to reach an agreement with the EU.

Against these expectations, Prime Minister Theresa May managed to make such a deal. But last Tuesday, the House of Commons voted that deal down by 432 votes to 202. Still, there is no time to make a new deal and get it agreed by 29 March, even if anyone was willing to do so. This means that the only way for the UK to leave the EU with a deal by 29 March is for Theresa May’s deal to be agreed.

Option 2 is for the UK to not leave the EU on 29 March. There are actually two ways to make this happen too.

2a. The UK can revoke the Article 50 Notification, ending the withdrawal process

2b. The UK can ask for an extension

Option 2a was something that most legal scholars thought wasn’t possible until a ruling by the European Court of Justice a few weeks ago. Basically, the court decided that the UK can unilaterally decide to stay in the EU and end the withdrawal process at any time. This actually gives the UK a lot of leverage and freedom. However, the court did say that a revocation would have to be in order to bring the withdrawal process to an end. So this option would, essentially, be “cancelling Brexit”.

Nobody knows how this process would work in UK law, though most people seem to think that the Government couldn’t revoke the Article 50 notice on its own; it would need votes in Parliament and maybe an actual law to be passed.

Option 2b is easy to understand. The UK’s exit date from the EU can be delayed if

the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

This means all 28 current EU members, including the UK, would have to agree on it. The EU has indicated it’d be comfortable with a short delay of a couple of months but it’s not clear that all member states would agree to a longer pause, especially with European Parliament elections in June.

OK, summing up:

0. The UK will leave the EU automatically with no deal on 29 March 2019 1. The only way for the UK to leave the EU with a deal by 29 March is for Theresa May’s deal, which has already been rejected, to be agreed. 2. Without May’s deal, the only way to avoid leaving without a deal is for the UK to not leave on 29 March by either 2a. revoking the Article 50 Notification, ending the withdrawal process 2b. asking for an extension and being given an extension by the other EU countries

This list is exhaustive. There are no other options. That’s it. Four choices:

No deal May’s deal Revoke Article 50 Ask to extend Article 50 and have the EU agree

All the other options you’ve heard discussed mean choosing one of these options first:

Canada-Plus Brexit? Choose no deal because that’ll never be agreed.

Norway-style EFTA membership? Choose May’s deal and negotiate for EFTA membership in the future relationship negotiations during the transition period in her deal.

Second referendum? Choose Option 4 and ask to extend the A50 process.

Corbyn’s Customs Union without a backstop? Choose… actually I don’t know if any of the options are good. Maybe if the EU agreed a long extension under option 4. But there’s a good chance the EU won’t make that deal in the end.

General election? You probably need an Article 50 extension, unless you’re Theresa May and think a new Parliament can be elected and back your deal by 29 March.

On 29 January, the House of Commons will debate the next steps on Brexit. One of the most discussed is “Ruling out a no-deal Brexit”. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has refused to even meet PM Theresa May until she “rules out a no-deal Brexit”, and there is probably a majority in Parliament who’d vote against a no-deal Brexit.

But MPs face the four options above. They’ve already voted down one: May’s deal. If they also vote against a no-deal Brexit that only leaves two options and only one of them can be done by the UK unilaterally. That option is revoking the Article 50 notification and ending the Brexit process.

And in order for that to happen, MPs will need to also explicitly vote to revoke Article 50. Voting to ‘rule out a no-deal Brexit’ is worse than meaningless unless they either accept May’s deal or they vote to make it legally possible to stop a no-deal Brexit by revoking Article 50.

Unless MPs are willing to be honest with themselves about the options, the UK will leave the EU without a deal on 29 March.