Nearly half of GOP insiders in key battleground states — many of whom will be in attendance — believe there’s a good chance violence will break out around next week’s Republican National Convention in Cleveland.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus: a panel of swing-state operatives, activists and strategists. Forty-eight percent of Republican insiders said the odds are high that there will be violence at the convention that is likely to nominate Donald Trump, compared with 52 percent who thought the convention would be a mostly peaceful affair.


“Given the tenor of the campaign trail so far this year, coupled with rising social unrest, it is bound to spill over,” said one Iowa Republican, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “It's really more a matter of how bad it will get.”

“The reaction and counter-reaction to the resurgent identity politics gripping the country’s politics make at least some clashes and mayhem a near certainty,” added a North Carolina Republican.

For the GOP insiders most concerned about violence in Cleveland, many cited protest groups tied to liberal causes, like the Black Lives Matter movement. Nearly a half-dozen Republicans mentioned the Hungarian-born billionaire George Soros, who is a prolific donor to liberal causes. But few thought violence would ensue from an effort to fight Trump’s nomination on the convention floor.

“It’s simply too big of a target for the malcontents and violent left to miss,” said an Iowa Republican. “George Soros’ money will pay for thousands of disaffected screaming thugs. Think Seattle [1999], Chicago 1968. Riots and looting. They are the tools of the liberal left.”

“I say this with no joy whatsoever,” a Republican in the host state of Ohio added, “but the far-left agitators in Cleveland will make the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago look like a fourth-grade slap fight.”

“Cleveland is a rough town in the first place,” added another Iowa Republican, who warned against the “professional lefty protesters and anarchists” in town for the convention. “[G]iven the mood of the country the last three weeks, someone is gonna get hurt.”

Most of the Republicans who think the convention will be mostly peaceful said law enforcement would have things under control, and the shootings in Dallas last week that killed five police officers would temper any kind of violent protests.

“I am in Cleveland as I write this,” said a Colorado Republican. “Could there be some violence? Sure. But the protesters I’ve seen (and interacted with) are paid. They have been flown here by organizations looking to foment unrest. At the end of the day, most of them are college kids who won’t have an appetite for an actual confrontation with the considerable law enforcement presence here.”

Added a New Hampshire Republican: “Cops getting shot has a chilling effect on those who might have thought about aggressive protesting.”

While most of the Republicans who were worried about violence placed the blame on protesters whom they mostly dismissed, a number did say that Trump bears some responsibility for the threats of tumult in Cleveland. One Michigan Republican said Trump “invites violence.” A Pennsylvania Republican said he “invites chaos.”

“Tensions are high,” added an Ohio Republican. “Trump is explosive.”

Insiders mostly trust public polling in their states.

Swing-state polls this week are all over the map, but insiders in those Electoral College battlegrounds say they still trust the public pollsters to get it right much of the time.

Sixty-eight percent of insiders from both parties said the public polling in their state is mostly accurate. Just 32 percent said those public surveys are not very accurate.

Still, there are important differences from state to state, and the comments from insiders in a number of the Caucus states were instructive:

In Colorado, one Democrat cast doubt on a Monmouth University poll released earlier this week: “[Hillary] Clinton is up 13 points in a Monmouth poll out this week; that seems ambitious. We think she is up by 5-6 points and still needs to work hard to maintain a winning margin.” (An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll out Friday, after our Caucus participants had filed their responses, showed Clinton’s lead at 8 points.)

Multiple Republicans in Florida said a Quinnipiac University poll this week showing Trump with a 3-point lead seems overly optimistic for the presumptive GOP nominee. Two Republicans volunteered that they thought the poll is an “outlier.”

“My state is particularly complicated to poll, and most outside groups aren’t careful enough with subgroups and regional breaks, which is why public polls are all over the place,” added a Florida Democrat. “I wish they’d ban the damn things.”

Nevada is one of the hardest states to poll, according to insiders in both parties.

Seventy percent of the voters “are in one county, and that county has the highest cellphone-only rate in the country,” said one Republican there. “The place is dotted with big employment centers that operate 24 hours a day, so there isn't a good time to call to reach a considerable demographic.”

A Democrat cited Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid’s relatively easy victory over Republican Sharron Angle in 2010, despite entering Election Day with a small deficit in the polls. “Polling in Nevada is notorious for sucking,” the Democrat said.

Another Democrat said the state is “hard to poll” but added that this week’s Monmouth University poll showing Clinton with a 4-point lead was “in line with private polling, both statewide and in key congressional and state legislative districts. She’s down a bit thanks to the FBI announcement, but she’s maintaining a narrow lead.”

New Hampshire insiders noted the state is polled frequently, but an academic pollster there cautioned against leaning on polls this early for predictive value.

“Real people have real lives that don’t revolve around politics,” the pollster said. “I’ve been an academic pollster for 30 years, and it never fails to make me chuckle how the media pay attention to summertime polls. Just plain silly!”

The Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin was praised by insiders in both parties. One Democrat said it “has been eerily accurate in recent elections, and [I] believe it is again. Charles Franklin and his team have the state down.”

Marquette and Franklin are “the gold standard,” added a Wisconsin Republican. “Polls that are done by third-party groups have to stack up to the [Marquette] poll.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Christopher Murray, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Michigan: Jill Alper, Saul Anuzis, Andrea Bitely, Lori Carpentier, Howard Edelson, Jordan Gehrke, Steve Hood, Joe Lehman, Dennis Lennox, Katie Packer, Ronna Romney McDaniel, John Truscott, Stephanie White, John Yob

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

