Stephanie Smail reported this story on Thursday, July 25, 2013 18:38:00

MARK COLVIN: New international research has put a hefty price tag on the effects of global warming in the Arctic.



A group of researchers has worked out that methane releases in the East Siberian Sea could speed up global warming and create a damage bill of up to $65 trillion.



The research paper published in the science journal 'Nature' says the impacts of a warming Arctic are largely being ignored.



Stephanie Smail reports.



STEPHANIE SMAIL: The Arctic is rich in oil and gas reserves and the region is being sized up as a major resources hub.



But scientists are worried the impacts of climate change on the Arctic aren't being properly considered.



Professor Gail Whiteman from the Erasmus University in Rotterdam was part of a research team that worked out the damage bill of a methane leak from the region's warming seabed.



GAIL WHITEMAN: It looks at the social cost of carbon and then tries to figure out how things like a methane burst would affect the emissions and then tries to look over an extended period of time - a couple hundred years - on impacts from that incremental additional greenhouse gas emission and then it puts a value on that and then it discounts that back to current US dollars, that's net present value.



STEPHANIE SMAIL: It's estimated about 50 gigatonnes of methane are trapped in the East Siberian Sea's frozen seabed and Russian scientists have recently reported seeing plumes of the gas escaping.



The new modelling found continued leaks could bring a global temperature rise of two degrees Celsius forward by up to 35 years.



Professor Whiteman says, with no climate mitigation, the methane leak alone could put a $65 trillion dent in the world's economy.



GAIL WHITEMAN: The conditions are ripe for this to happen given there's not much you can do when water warms and the frozen stuff underneath the water also starts to thaw, I mean there is really nothing you can do, the methane will come out. Perhaps there's some technology where you can capture it as it comes out but you're talking a vast expanse of land.



STEPHANIE SMAIL: Professor Whiteman says the findings should send a strong message to the World Economic Forum and the International Monetary Fund about the potential economic threat from changes in the Arctic.



GAIL WHITEMAN: If you take a look at Arctic country discussions it's often about the short term economic benefits of if the sea ice open up - who owns shipping right, who owns the rights to oil and gas.



So there's discussion and the discussions that happened at the World Economic Forum in the past has been very much on that - wow, is the arctic actually an economic boom time that's waiting to happen?



So from our perspective we also don't see in a lot of the climate discussions, the issues about how the Arctic will affect global economies. So we certainly hear about it but the Arctic will affect global climate but we haven't heard enough about how it will actually affect global economies because the numbers haven't been there.



STEPHANIE SMAIL: The research paper says 80 per cent of the negative consequences associated with the methane leak will occur in poor economies including Africa and South America.



Professor Whiteman authorities need to act fast to prevent a worst case scenario.



GAIL WHITEMAN: What we're seeing is that the Arctic, while it's remote and extremely beautiful place to visit, it is absolutely critical to the global climate system and we know that a global climate system is under stress and as the Arctic changes it will be under extreme stress.



So that carries economic cost, it is not just bad news for the polar bear, it will be bad news for society and economies around the world, so I do see it as a time bomb.



MARK COLVIN: Professor Gail Whiteman ending Stephanie Smail's report.