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Jean Chretien swept to power in 1993 as the anti-Mulroney, and also the standard-bearer of the left wing of the Liberal party, on a program of expansive spending and interventionism not dissimilar to the Trudeau platform of 2015. Chretien had spent years railing against Mulroney’s free trade deals with the United States and his Goods and Services Tax. In the famous Red Book the Liberal leader promised to renegotiate one and replace the other. Neither happened. By 1994-95, cuddly interventionism had been jettisoned in favour of harsh austerity. Chretien held power for another eight years.

Even Stephen Harper, noted incrementalist, managed to surprise, in counterpoint to his previous persona and positions, very early in his time as PM. In his case it was a decision in November of 2006, stunning at the time, to formally recognize the Quebecois as a nation within Canada. It was a straight-up theft of an idea of Michael Ignatieff’s, advanced in the latter’s first campaign for the Liberal leadership, and appeared highly calculated. Nevertheless it was a surprise — a nod to Quebecer’s sentiments and aspirations that pre-power Harper would have strongly opposed. It was a signal he could be ideologically nimble — which he was, until he won his third term, on May 2, 2011.

Even Stephen Harper, noted incrementalist, managed to surprise, in counterpoint to his previous persona and positions, very early in his time as PM

The point being, campaigners campaign, but prime ministers govern. Those who do so for any length of time and have lasting impact, this little tour of history suggests, are able to vault beyond their base to serve a broader constituency. This is what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has yet to do. His party won 39 per cent of the popular vote Oct. 19. Since then he has engaged with Canadians primarily as an enthusiast — for helping refugees, for renewed humanitarianism, for gender equality in cabinet, for a cleaner environment, a friendlier face in the House of Commons and so forth. He has shown an ability to be cuddly and trot out Liberal motherhood and apple pie — but no propensity to wield a stick. Yet the stick is needed.

That’s because, simply, the global economy is misfiring, led by China, and the price of oil with it. Should the price of a barrel of crude drop below US $20 per barrel from its current level in the low thirties, as some analysts now expect, the follow-on for Canada’s economic and fiscal prospects will be major and painful. Not end-of-the world cataclysmic; not cause to stock up on bottled water and tinned meat; but certainly cause to reassess a raft of very pricey Liberal promises, led by $60 billion in additional infrastructure spending over ten years, fuelled by debt. Onward to the budget.