Across Las Vegas, bets involving total wins and individual games for Texas A&M have been pulled off the board, as everyone awaits the next clue in what will happen in the saga of Johnny Manziel. ESPN reported Sunday he is under investigation by the NCAA for being paid to autograph memorabilia.

According to Pregame.com, which analyzed the sports books, "Manziel is worth about 7 points a game" in the spread and projected wins "for Texas A&M would drop from 9.5 to 7."

Here's another prop bet, though: I'd say it's a long shot the NCAA ever proves a thing. Based on what we know now, the odds are Manziel doesn't miss a snap because of suspension all season. As Aggies practice began Monday, coach Kevin Sumlin said it was business as usual.

"Our university is doing its due diligence to find out the facts," Sumlin said. "We're going to proceed and go ahead as normal and adjust as the facts are presented … [Manziel] will get as many reps [in practice] as he was going to get yesterday [before news of the investigation broke]."

View photos

Forget, for a moment, whether you think the Heisman Trophy winner is guilty or innocent of the charges. Likewise, save the argument about whether a person should be allowed to be paid to sign his own name or even if you support the NCAA's system of enforcement.

As long as Manziel and A&M don't cave to the pressure of the NCAA, this is about whether the NCAA can prove Manziel was either paid to sign the items or agreed to a deal where he will be paid.

Without a significant stroke of luck in the case, that is an uphill climb for investigators.

Let's start with the rule: NCAA bylaw 12.5.2.1. Manziel is allowed to sign his autograph. He is even able to sign them in a bulk session to a professional memorabilia dealer where they are numerically authenticated – as ESPN alleges. That broker can then put them on the market directly, or, as is likely the case here, distribute them for a fee to other brokers.

The entire issue is proving he was paid for the session or agreed to be paid in the future. The penalty for such an offense, based on precedent, could be a four-game suspension, plus one extra if he is deemed to have lied during the investigation to NCAA officials. That's what they hit a slew of Ohio State players within 2011. Of course, other players have been sat for the season for lying to investigators. NCAA jurisprudence often lacks consistency.

ESPN cites two sources "who are aware of the signing arrangement" – that broker Drew Tieman paid Manziel a "five-figure flat fee" for the signings. Three others told the network they witnessed Manziel signing hundreds of items at Tieman's South Florida home. The article says Manziel signed them in a crowded house – which certainly doesn't suggest he was trying to hide anything.

[Related: How does Twitter feel about Johnny Manziel?]

ESPN also reported that NCAA investigator James Garland contacted Tieman in June, so the Association has been on the case, but apparently unable to close it, for at least five weeks and likely a few months. (Tieman isn't going to be the first call made).

Until the NCAA finds proof of a payment from Tieman to either Manziel or, more likely, his personal assistant/friend Nathan Fitch, then this isn't much of a case. The NCAA can demand to speak to Manziel (they might already have). It can demand to see Manziel's bank records and even that of his family.

Story continues