When Anna Soubry says that if she and her fellow Conservative defectors do their job properly there won’t be a Tory party, these are no idle words. For starters, they will soon get their chance to bring down the Conservative government.

Never forget that Theresa May leads a minority administration. It would take a few more Tory rebels (they may arrive sooner than we think) to eliminate the prime minister’s nominal majority – that is, the one she cobbled together with the help of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) after her disastrous snap election in 2017. Every Tory MP who decides they have had enough and joins the Independent Group is liberated from the duty to vote against any formal vote of no confidence in Her Majesty’s government.

Indeed, Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston can now be safely counted as among the most determined to bring May’s ill-starred administration down.

The fall of the government, in other words, is now a much more realistic prospect than it was even a few weeks ago when Jeremy Corbyn last had a rather quixotic go at toppling the prime minister. The irony is that he might now pull his punches (for reasons known only to himself) when he could actually force an election.

Even more potent, in reality, is that the mere threat to bring the government down and force a general election will force May and her cabinet to listen to the vast majority of the House of Commons that wishes to rule out a no-deal Brexit – and to do so immediately. It also brings closer, for that reason, a Final Say referendum, if Labour can be persuaded to support such a policy in return for an early general election.

It would be strange, though not inconceivable, that Corbyn and his team could come to some sort of accommodation with Chuka Umunna and his band of merry Labour rebels, though tribal instincts and the sheer raw emotional damage caused by the Labour split doesn’t augur well for it. The Independent Group, for their part, are determined to prevent Corbyn becoming prime minster. And Corbyn is actually pro-Brexit anyway.

Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Show all 12 1 /12 Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Change UK Details on the individual MPs are in the following photos Reuters Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Heidi Allen Anti-Brexit MP for South Cambridgeshire resigned from the Conservative party on February 20 PA Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Chuka Umunna MP for Streatham since 2010 and prominent People's Vote supporter PA Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Anna Soubry The prominent anti-Brexit MP for Broxtowe resigned from the Conservative party on February 20 PA Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Luciana Berger MP for Liverpool Wavertree since 2010, resigned from the Labour Party over bullying and anti-semitism PA Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Sarah Wollaston Anti-Brexit MP for Totnes resigned from the Conservative party on February 20 PA Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Joan Ryan MP for Enfield North resigned from the Labour party on February 19 citing its tolerance of a "culture of anti-Jewish racism" PA Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Ann Coffey MP for Stockport since 1992 Chris McAndrew / UK Parliament Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Gavin Shuker MP for Luton South since 2010 Getty Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Chris Leslie MP for Nottingham East since 2010 PA Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Mike Gapes MP for Ilford South since 1992 PA Which MPs defected to form Change UK? Angela Smith MP for Penistone and Stocksbridge since 2010

Where all that resolves itself is anyone’s guess. At any rate, both sides will have to ask themselves whether their personal animosity and differences over issues such as antisemitism are more or less important than what they might hope to achieve on Europe.

The optimistic point here, though, is that they all (with a handful of Labour MPs excepted) genuinely reject either a no-deal Brexit or Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

In the event of a vote of no confidence in the government, all the opposition parties and factions can be expected to vote together as a bloc. They are within touching distance of being able to deprive May of power. That is why the loss of only three Conservative MPs from her strength carries such a huge significance for the prime minister.

The “three amigos” possess, almost literally, 10 times as much leverage as the hard men and women of the European Research Group. They do so because they reflect a balance of opinion in the Commons that is stacked, on a rough guess, at about 100 MPs at most in favour of no deal, and the remaining 550 (give or take the speaker, a vacancy, a suspension and absentionist Sinn Fein) against it: a majority of well over 400.