WHITBY—A year ago you would be forgiven for assuming this Liberal redoubt on Toronto’s eastern outskirts was a safe bet to stay in Justin Trudeau’s hands.

The Liberal leader was riding a growing economy, his government having calmly salvaged a not-especially-painful retooling of the NAFTA trade agreement from the spectre of scorched earth, Donald Trump-style.

It seemed that Canada’s government, whatever its flaws, was at least navigating the nativist chaos south of the border. Not a small thing, that.

But then it all went pear-shaped for Trudeau, as the cascading SNC-Lavalin scandal began tearing away at his personal brand. And few here in Whitby forget that their local representative — former Liberal MP Celina Caesar-Chavannes — had a hand in the shaping.

If truth-teller Jody Wilson-Raybould and her primary ally Jane Philpott cut to the heart of the matter in standing up to Prime Minister’s Office, Caesar-Chavannes was there in solidarity. And then she went beyond, openly yet cryptically challenging Trudeau’s leadership style — hinting he somehow was not the man you thought he was — in a single devastating tweet.

Fast-forward to today and the seat now is wide open — with Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives champing at the bit to flip it blue. Caesar-Chavannes, no longer a Liberal, is a spectator this time around, wrapping up her rookie term as an Independent before bowing out of politics.

It is difficult to overstate how much game the Conservatives are bringing to the table in Whitby, up to and including Scheer himself, who made a whistle stop Monday, offering face-to-face support for local Conservative flag-bearer, Todd McCarthy.

McCarthy, a senior partner with the Whitby law firm Flaherty McCarthy LLP, is quick to point out that the first name in his company’s title is that of his late partner and political mentor, Jim Flaherty, who held this precinct for a generation, first provincial, then federally, eventually as Stephen Harper’s finance minister.

“Jim taught me what real representative democracy is by being an advocate for Whitby and I intend to follow that path and win back the seat,” McCarthy told the Star in an interview this week.

“We’re feeling the wind at our back. We’ve got hundreds of volunteers and great memories and reverence for Jim Flaherty. People at the door are saying, ‘I’ve had enough of Justin Trudeau’s broken promises and hypocrisy’ and that’s what they see as the ballot question.

“And in terms of hope and promise and a platform that is about affordability and respecting the middle class, I believe residents here are embracing the Conservative platform,” said McCarthy.

McCarthy and his family remain close to Flaherty’s. Scan the candidate’s Facebook page and you’ll find a photo of a cluster of prominent provincial Tories at his side from his campaign launch — including Ontario Deputy Premier Christine Elliott (Flaherty’s widow), Finance Minister Rod Phillips, Treasury Board President Peter Bethlenfalvy and Whitby MPP Lorne Coe.

Also featured prominently, a video clip of Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre in Whitby last week to rev up a roomful of McCarthy volunteers. The room explodes in laughter when Poilievre describes meeting McCarthy for the first time earlier that day. “I got in the car and I saw Todd and I said, ‘You even look like Jim Flaherty!’ ”

If there are higher stakes in play, it is this: Whitby is a riding that has been known to toggle back and forth from Liberal to Conservative — but this time around, it’s one the Conservatives simply cannot afford to let slip through their fingers. Andrew Scheer’s path to government, political analysts agree, requires winning over a swath of seats surrounding Toronto. If they can’t take one as winnable as this, that path could become impassibly narrow.

Standing in McCarthy’s way is Liberal candidate Ryan Turnbull, a social innovation consultant who was first approached to run after giving a speech at Durham College. Married with a young family, Turnbull told the Star he is thrilled and honoured by the prospect of bringing to government the energy and insights he has invested for the past 10 years as president and CEO of Eco-Ethonomics Inc.

“It’s my 10 years of running a social innovation consulting company that really differentiates me from any other candidate in this riding,” said Turnbull. “I’ve actually worked on all the issues that matter to people with a small team that has completed about 350 projects to date,” he said.

Turnbull cites climate worries, affordable housing for young families and seniors alike and the need for a strong, more sustainable local economy as the three most discussed topics as he goes doorknocking around the fast-growing community of 129,000 people.

“People want more and better jobs here in Whitby because going in and out of Toronto or anywhere in the GTA takes such a toll on their quality of life. My whole working life has been about finding and initiating innovative solutions to these kinds of problems,” he said.

The campaigns have maintained a positive tone — but at least one anonymous person’s worst instincts got the better of them when Turnbull’s campaign learned of a defaced Liberal signage. In one especially ugly example, the candidate’s surname was abridged into a hand-painted profanity.

Turnbull shrugs it off. “It happens to every campaign apparently. We paid attention, we replaced it, we moved on. Like my dad taught me as a young kid, you get knocked down you just get back up and work harder.

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“We are not deterred. We’re staying really positive — the whole Liberal philosophy and values is fundamental to me. It’s about forgiveness, about lifting people up, about hope for the future, about inspiring people to come together and work together.”

Polling in individual electoral districts is somewhat rare. But Mainstreet Research, after three surveys of Whitby in recent weeks, is calling the riding a toss-up between the Conservatives and the Liberals, with the NDP and Greens trailing far behind.

“We see Whitby as tied — it’s a tie, and so it’s going to come down to local factors like voter enthusiasm, organizational ability and the volunteers,” said Quito Maggi, Mainstreet’s president and CEO.

“That — and also where the national campaigns are going when we’re in that final week.”

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