Quinnipiac's jaw-dropping, eyebrow-raising swing-state numbers

The newest polling from Quinnipiac University, CBS News and the New York Times is either catching a jaw-dropping trend early, or really stretching the bounds of believability.

The latest round of surveys, released this morning, shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 9 points in Florida, 10 points in Ohio and 12 points in Pennsylvania. Those are by far his biggest leads in name-brand polling in Ohio and Florida.

Here's how CBS reports and explains the results:

Mr. Obama holds a 10-point lead in Ohio among those who say they will definitely vote, a lead propelled by a 25-point advantage among women. Romney holds an 8-point lead among men. The president holds a 35-point edge among voters under 35 years old, and a 5-point lead among those ages 35-64; the two candidates are effectively tied among Ohio seniors. Sixty-two percent of Ohio likely voters say the auto bailout, which had a significant impact on the state's economy, was a success, while just 30 percent say it was a failure. Both candidates will campaign in Ohio Wednesday; the president led Romney by six points in the state last month. In Florida, Mr. Obama's edge over Romney has risen from three points before the political conventions to nine points today. His gains are due to improved performance among women, white voters and seniors. Nearly half of Florida Democrats now say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in the past - up from 24 percent at the start of August, and only slightly less than the percentage of Florida Republicans who are more enthusiastic. Two in three Florida likely voters support the DREAM Act policies put in place by the president to allow young illegal immigrants who came to the country as children to obtain work permits and not face deportation.

(POLITICO's swing-state map)

Most recent polling has put Obama ahead in these three states. But even Democrats have been skeptical of other surveys showing Obama ahead by 7 and 8 points in Ohio, let alone a 10-point margin there and a comparable margin in the ultimate politically divided state of Florida. That doesn't mean there's no chance that Quinnipiac's numbers are right, and if other polls catch up with these numbers, then we really will see absolute panic about Romney's campaign heading into the first debate. But I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that we may be looking at some outlier-ish data here, especially in Florida. It wouldn't be the first time in the 2012 cycle that Quinnipiac has accurately captured a trend but overstated the magnitude.