The history of the Tory party is that favourites rarely make it

The latest betting chart from Betdata.io is above and shows Jacob Rees-Mogg now clear favourite to succeed TMay but a 14% chance is not that strong. He’s the third Tory to have been favourite since the general election and who knows others could follow.

My first ever bet as a 16 year old (I went into a bookie wearing my school blazer and yes I was breaking the law) was on the 1963 CON contest when there was no electoral process within the party and even MPs didn’t get a vote. The system involved a new leader “emerging” in an apparently mystical process. The hot favourite had been Rab Butler but Earl Home, who later became a commoner and fought a by-election to become an MP, was the winner. My first ever political bet was a loser but that did not stop me.

After the party’s defeat in 1964 the Tories introduced a new system with MPs making the choice. The first to benefit was Edward Heath, who wasn’t favourite, who went on to lead his party to a majority in 1970.

We are in a very strange position at the moment. It is widely acknowledged that Mrs. May will step down after Brexit if not before so the person who will lead the party into the next election is not yet known.

My guess is that we’ll see others move into the favourite slot before a successor is chosen.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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