Earlier this month, the US Association of Cider Makers (USACM) issued the first draft of their style guidelines, following along in the tradition of the BJCP or perhaps, more generously, Michael Jackson. Just a few hours later, Portland cidermaker Reverend Nat issued a press release announcing their new, much larger production space. These announcements gave me an ideal opportunity to check in with the cider world and reevaluate its ongoing evolution in the US. A few years ago, cider was the focus of a lot of attention in the drinks world, and yet even though it's no longer the flavor du jour, these announcements attest to ongoing growth.

Last week, I sat down with Nat and Sarah West to discuss their thoughts on growth, change, and the future. Nat is one of the industry's most active movers and shakers, and through his own advocacy and promotion, along with the annual Portland International Cider Cup that he spearheads, has been on the leading edge of driving changes. His thoughts were, as always, surprising and unexpected.

Before I get to Nat, though a bit of background. Cider is a weird category. If you look at the topline numbers, it appears to be flagging in the US--a flash in the pan as it has been periodically over the decades. In the first half of 2017, sales were down 10%, following a similar tumble in 2016. But this is misleading. As in the beer market, most cider is mass market, supermarket stuff. Angry Orchard accounts for over half the entire volume in the US. AB InBev and Miller's super crappy offerings (Johnny Appleseed and Smith & Forge) were conceived, packaged, and sold as a part of the flavored malt beverage category--and like other products in that segment, they were treated as disposable products and are now in their death throes. This kind of cider is in trouble.

On the other hand, local, artisanal ciders are doing very well. There's not a clear definition of "craft cider," but by one measure these brands were up 40% last year. In key regions like the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and New England, they have taken root and seem to have emerged as a permanent fixture in bars and restaurants. Meanwhile, the USACM is busily reproducing, blow for blow, the moves craft beer has taken. The creation of style guidelines is just the first step. The organization (which functions like the Brewers Association of cider) has also initiated a cicerone-style certification, and the group is planning to lobby state and national legislatures to pass cider-friendly laws. (More here if you want the deep dive.)



Regional Growth

Which brings us to Nat and Sarah West. According to some reports, Reverend Nat is the third-largest cider-maker in Oregon, with sales last year around 4,000 barrels. That would put them (just!) in the top-30 largest breweries in the state. Nat exptects to make 6,000 barrels this year--which might nose the cidery just ahead of Barley Brown's for the top 25. Two Towns is the big dog, though, making a staggering 13,000 barrels in 2016, a volume that would have made it the 15th-largest Oregon brewery. Barrelage drops off significantly once you get down past the top few--comparable to the pattern in beer--and most cideries are still small affairs. Yet when I checked in with Cider Riot earlier this year, owner Abram Goldman-Armstrong told me cider already accounts for 6% of beer sales in Portland, which is the strongest beer city in the country. All of which is to confirm the thesis that "craft cider" is doing very well.