Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said he "will oppose Judge Kavanaugh's nomination with everything I have."

So, there you go. The battle lines are set. Now settle in for a two-plus month battle on policy, precedent, the past, the future and, whether anyone likes it or not, a ton of midterm election politics.

Bottom line: Brett Kavanaugh will make his first appearance on Capitol Hill on Tuesday in an official kick-off of sorts to his nomination process. But get comfortable -- a lengthy slugfest defined by millions of dollars and enormous stakes awaits.

Reality check: This fight will be nasty, and it won't be quick. Expect eight or nine weeks to pass before a vote, aides say, and -- most importantly -- most, if not all, of the key senators in play not to announce where they stand until shortly before the vote itself.

Reality check part 2: This is a very uphill climb for Democrats trying to block Kavanaugh's nomination. They don't have the votes on their own, Kavanaugh isn't considered by Republicans to be outside their mainstream and vulnerable Democrats are in a very, very tough spot with this vote. As noted, there's a long way to go and given Kavanaugh's voluminous paper trail and the very This is a very uphill climb for Democrats trying to block Kavanaugh's nomination. They don't have the votes on their own, Kavanaugh isn't considered by Republicans to be outside their mainstream and vulnerable Democrats are in a very, very tough spot with this vote. As noted, there's a long way to go and given Kavanaugh's voluminous paper trail and the very real agitation (and activation) inside the Democratic based , the path is hardly clear and the fight Schumer is predicting -- and fully planning to provide -- is very, very real.

Interesting to watch: Democrats are very focused on Kavanaugh's lengthy paper trail from his time in the Bush administration as staff secretary (McConnell, as we've reported, was too). There is no shortage of potential Bush-era policies Democrats would love to attack (and think they win the debate on), but a big question may become: would a major focus on that distract from their key message of abortion rights and the Affordable Care Act?

Whom to watch

Republicans

Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska: Collins complimented Kavanaugh's "impressive credentials," but both senators made clear the nomination would be subject to extensive review.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky: Keep an eye on Paul in the weeks ahead. He said he'd keep an "open mind" to Kavanaugh, but while everyone focuses on whether Democrats can or will seize on the nominee's role in the Bush administration, it's probably worthwhile to keep an eye on Paul, for whom privacy issues and detention policy have long been paramount.

Democrats

Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana: All three were invited to the White House for the announcement ceremony. All three said no. All three made clear they would partake in a lengthy examination of Kavanaugh's record before making any decision.

Sens. Jon Tester of Montana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Doug Jones of Alabama and Bill Nelson of Florida: Tester, McCaskill and Nelson are considered the second-tier of red-state Democrats up for re-election in 2018 to keep an eye on. All voted against the Neil Gorsuch nomination, but was we've noted, that doesn't guarantee anything. Jones hails from rock solid red Alabama and, while he isn't up for re-election in 2018, was also invited to the White House (he also declined) and is going to get a lot of focus from the administration, Republicans and aligned outside groups. None of these four closed to door to voting for Kavanaugh.

Did anyone tip their hand in their statements last night: Of the above group? No.

Key player

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley is the person to watch in the days ahead. Not only will the Iowa Republican and his staff guide Kavanaugh's nomination through the committee process, he'll also set the confirmation hearing date -- something destined to become a partisan scheduling war.

Pressure point for Democrats

Democrat after Democrat came out in immediate opposition to Kavanaugh's nomination Monday night (Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania even came out in opposition before the nomination was announced). But there are a handful of Democrats widely expected to vote against the nomination who said they were concerned, but would take the time to go through Kavanaugh's record before making a final decision.

This used to be the pro-forma standard for a Supreme Court nominee. But this position was immediately attacked by Democratic groups for not being resolute enough in opposition. If you needed an idea of how seriously the base and outside groups are going to pressure their own on this.

One under appreciated moment from Monday

Speaking of Schumer's fight, on the Senate floor before Kavanaugh was announced, Schumer explicitly stated "stare decisis," or standing precedent, was no longer an adequate threshold for nominees -- as has long been the case.

Schumer's rationale is two-fold:

Past nominees have gone on to reverse precedent (he cited, among others, Gorsuch on Janus v. AFSCME)

Trump's campaign comments on abortion rights and the Affordable Care Act, along with the pre-drafted list of potential nominees, mean a nominee should be assumed to agree with Trump's positions on those unless stated otherwise.

This, Schumer said, means the nominee "has an obligation to share their personal views" on Roe vs. Wade and the Affordable Care Act. As one GOP aide put it bluntly, "there's a 0% chance" Kavanaugh accedes to that new Schumer-imposed threshold. But this is a notable shift, both on this nomination and for those in the future.

The outside campaigns

The flood of outside money designed to pressure senators on the fence started immediately Monday night. On both sides, participants say groups have been steadily engaged in aligning messages and strategies on how to target senators and their constituents. The goal: coordinate their actions to have maximum effect.

What do they want?

According to one Democratic outside group source: "A grassroots explosion."

According to a Republican outside group source: "Protection for our folks while letting their vulnerables know there are consequences in November for opposition."

A sampling: Judicial Crisis Network, by far the most powerful (and plugged in) conservative outside group in the fight, launched a $1.4 million television ad buy in Alabama (Jones), Indiana (Donnelly), North Dakota (Heitkamp) and West Virginia (Manchin).

Americans for Prosperity, the powerful Koch-backed grassroots group, pledged "seven figures" to back Kavanaugh and has already launched its state-based chapters into door knocking and phone calls in each of 10 Trump-won states where Senate Democrats face re-election.

Demand Justice, while new, has moved to the center of the Democratic opposition push. Seven figures are in play for this group, led by former top Schumer adviser Brian Fallon, and it has already demonstrated close ties to the biggest names on the left.

A note on this: Keep a close eye on new groups, with ambiguous names, that pop up in the days ahead. Individual donors with big cash can, have and may this time, get involved in this and also play a role.

Walking a fine line: These pressure campaigns can backfire. Senators bristle at outside money pouring into their states, particularly if it's sharply negative. The strategic tone and tenor of the campaigns on both sides will be fascinating to watch.