Good morning, this is Naaman Zhou bringing you the final election edition of the morning mail, for polling day – Saturday 18 May.

The week that was

A giant fell on Thursday night and punched a hole through this election. On 7.30 that night the ABC had both leaders in their final interviews. They didn’t say anything. By 7.45 they were talking about someone who did. Bob Hawke was gone, and the tributes flowed and flowed.

Saturday feels in shadow. People are trying to drown out the noise. The nerves of the political junkies are buzzing, but how much of that has been leaked specifically to create this sense of cliffhanger? In many ways, it may be too late. 25% of the country has already voted.

It was a week where not much shifted. Not the polls, not the leaders, not the policies. On Mother’s Day, Scott Morrison launched the party’s official re-election bid, and apologised to his own wife and kids for doing so, as if they too had had enough. He announced a new first home buyer’s grant, and it was matched by Labor within minutes.

The polls were tight – but they were the same as last week. It was Back To The Future. Shorten went to Blacktown, to Bowman Hall where Gough Whitlam launched his campaign in 1972. Morrison did the same, in reverse, telling the room at the National Press Club “now is not the time”. And nothing seemed to happen – apart from the steady stream of those wanting to seal their ballot away. We will know what they think by tonight.

The big issue

The “unknown unknowns” – in the words of Peter Lewis. Here’s what we know. A quarter of the country has already voted. Labor has beaten the Coalition in every poll since the last election, and apart from the few months after the 2016 election, most of the polls before then too. We know that a large chunk of the country has “zero or very light engagement” with this campaign.

And that is where the unknowns begin. Palmer’s advertising and the United Australia Party vote. How the One Nation and UAP preferences will split. Which seat polls are on target and not. Which seats will beat the swing, and which will fall.

Good week for…

The Greens. Two seat polls in Victoria showed them in with a shot of snatching the crown jewel of Kooyong – treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s seat – and nearby Higgins, a long-time target made much easier by the retirement of sitting Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer.

Even with the customary margin of error, it was good news, boosting hopes of adding to Adam Bandt’s sole lower house seat either this election or the next. Greens votes are stacking up in a swag of nearby seats – Macnamara, Wills, and Cooper. Both Kooyong and Higgins, of course, are three-horse contests, with Labor good odds to beat the Greens into second place.

Bad week for…

Tony Abbott. The former prime minister’s “tribute” to Hawke was not well-received. The former Liberal PM said Hawke “went against the Labor grain” and “had a Liberal head”, prompting broadcaster Wendy Harmer to say that Abbott has a “pea where your heart should be”. Susan Ryan, the minister for women in the Hawke government, said that there was “nothing Liberal about Bob”.

On the ground

In Warringah, Tony Abbott is in trouble, and the rancour is rising. The locals tell Anne Davies: “Two Queenwood girls came past yesterday and started abusing us about climate change. They were just vile. Very rude.” In Dickson, Peter Dutton is being buffeted by the winds of change. But can he stay put? Ben Smee asks the locals, who tell him: “We all know Peter”.

Meme warfare

At the Liberal launch, Scott Morrison’s Twitter account sent out this gem: “It is my vision for this country as your prime minister to keep the Promise of Australia to all Australians.”

The nation let out a collective groan. “The promise of Australia sounds like a cruise ship,” said the ABC’s language research specialist Tiger Webb. “This just sounds like someone cheating at scrabble,” said satirist Pauline Pantsdown.

Campaign dog of the week

It’s Eva the democracy sausage. Again. You’re welcome.

Eva the Democracy Sausage Dog looks on during a community barbecue in the seat of Boothby, South Australia. Photograph: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images



They said it



We will miss him. The golden bowl is broken.”

– Blanche d’Alpuget



In case you missed it in the Guardian

A lot happened on Friday. Katharine Murphy and Helen Davidson broke the scoop of the election, that Morrison knew in 2016 he was accepting two Rwandans from the US accused of murder.

Anne Davies had another exclusive in the ongoing water saga – that Angus Taylor’s Oxford rowing mate’s company was a beneficiary of an $80m deal.

Listen to Sarah Martin and Katharine Murphy on Scott Morrison, his rise to the top and whether he could stick around.

What do the polls say?

The same theme, with variations. Essential: Labor will win – 51.5% to 49.5% – the same as last week. Newspoll: Labor will win – 51% to 49% – the same as last week. And if you zero in, the swing is 4% in Queensland, which could end the contest. A suite of seat polls have also emerged, but as always, your mileage may vary.

But something new from the Australia Institute – Clive Palmer could miss out.

Coming up

It’s the big day. Polls close at 6pm local time all around the country today, and the results will come in soon after.

Here is your full guide of how to watch, who will be on, and which seats to look out for.



