‘Above normal’ temperatures forecast across the country

Prepare for a scorching summer as the India Meteorological Department has forecast “above normal” temperatures across most of the country. Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir — or hill-station States popular among tourists wanting to escape the heat — are expected to be particularly hot with predicted temperatures, on average, likely to be well above 1 degree C above their normal summer temperatures.

Punjab, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana are other States in the “core heat zone” that are likely to see significantly warmer temperatures. The IMD weather model, used to prepare the forecast, shows a 47% probability of summer temperatures being above normal.

The summer forecast is in line with a generally warm trend over previous months. 2016 was the warmest year in a century, according to the IMD, with the country 0.91 C warmer than the 1961-1990 average. The summer months of March-May last year were 1.36 C higher than historical average, making it the second-warmest since 1901.

“We expect most of the warming to be in the north-west,” said K.J. Ramesh, Director-General IMD in a phone conversation. “I think the summer may be slightly milder than last year.” Last year’s elevated temperature was mainly due to a particularly warm winter that was the warmest since 1901.

The weather agency blames global warming. “Studies indicate increasing trends in the frequency and duration of heat waves over the country.”

“[This] can be attributed to increasing trends in the greenhouse gases and the warming of the sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans.”

Though still early days, global weather models have given feelers that an El Nino — an anomalous warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific and frequently toxic to the Indian monsoon — may be taking shape during the middle of the year. Were it to couple with errant conditions in the Indian Ocean, things could look bad for the monsoon. “So far we don’t see a possible El Nino threat to the monsoon system,” Mr. Ramesh added. The agency is expected to give its first forecast of the June-September monsoon in April. The IMD will also update its summer forecasts every 5 days using the dynamical model, primarily designed to forecast the monsoon, but has since last year been also used to gauge summer temperatures.