Iowa Poll: Carson seen as most electable among GOP, Trump as change agent

Jason Noble | The Des Moines Register

DES MOINES, Iowa — Likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa can agree on one thing about this field of 15 presidential candidates: Donald Trump has a huuuuuge ego.

Better than three-quarters of respondents in the latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll say Trump is the most ego-driven candidate in the race.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, meanwhile, is the most electable, the most presidential, the most pragmatic and the most trustworthy with his finger on the nuclear button — all characteristics befitting a candidate now leading the GOP horse race in Iowa.

But the news isn’t all bad for Trump, who fell to second in two polls of likely caucus attendees last week. The real estate mogul is still seen as the party’s best hope for bringing about real change, the Iowa Poll shows, and that may be the most important qualification for a Republican candidate in this period of political frustration and disaffection.

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the clear choice on all these characteristics — in some cases by wide margins.

The GOP results underscore voters’ desire for a political outsider and help explain Carson’s surge to the top spot in the poll, at 28%. But Iowa Poll pollster J. Ann Selzer said the numbers also provide comfort to Trump, who led the field for months but dropped to second in polling released last week, at 19%.

“It’s crystal clear that a majority of Republicans think the bigger risk is to keep electing insiders who will deliver the same results,” Selzer said. “Trump’s position on this goes a ways toward balancing Carson’s position on the other elements.”

Poll respondent Dorothy Vos called Carson her first choice but stressed that she could still be persuaded to support someone else. While she appreciates what she views as Carson’s honesty and believes he could heal racial divisions in the country, she believes Trump is the most credible change agent.

“He doesn’t answer to any special-interest groups,” she said. “And because he’s not being bought and paid for, I think he probably can make some changes.”

Roughly a quarter of respondents call Carson the most electable, the most presidential and the most trusted with the country’s nuclear weapons. And 17% believe he’s the most pragmatic.

“He seems to be an honest man. He’s an intelligent guy, and I like his backstory a little bit, coming from where he came from, being a neurosurgeon, all those things,” said poll respondent Richard Berrier, a retail department manager from North English. “I just like the way he handles himself.”

Carson is Berrier’s top choice in the Republican field — and the candidate he sees as the most presidential, pragmatic and able to force real change.

The Iowa Poll of 401 likely Republican and 402 likely Democratic caucusgoers was taken Oct. 16-19 by Selzer & Co. Each of the samples has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

TRUMP ALSO TOPS GOP AS 'IN OVER HIS HEAD'

A third of all likely GOP caucusgoers say Trump is best able to bring about real change, and he rates even higher among first-time caucusgoers (49%) and independents (40%). He places second on pragmatism, electability and nuclear trustworthiness.

Alongside those positives, though, the poll also reveals potential drawbacks for Trump’s candidacy: that 78% agreement on the size of his ego, and the 24% plurality who say he’s in over his head.

“A lot of times he talks about himself, and I think that’s sickening after a while,” said poll respondent Carlene Lemon, 74, of Keokuk. “That bothers me. I don’t care for that.”

The poll contains some promise for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and fellow first-term Sen. Marco Rubio, who represents Florida. Likely caucusgoers rate Rubio third on electability and tied for third — with Cruz — on appearing presidential.

Cruz is the first choice for 10% of poll respondents, good for third in the field, while Rubio is 1 percentage point back at 9%.

And although former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied for fifth in the horse race with just 5% support, 18% of respondents see him as the most presidential, good for second on that characteristic. Pluralities of self-identified moderates and first-time caucusgoers call him the most presidential, as do 20% of Trump supporters.

Among likely Democratic caucus attendees, Clinton is far and away the leading candidate on every positive measure tested in the poll.

CLINTON LEADS RIVALS ON POSITIVE CHARACTERISTICS

Clinton is seen by likely Democratic caucusgoers as the most electable, the most presidential, the most pragmatic, the most trusted in nuclear matters and the best able to bring about real change. She also leads in the perception as most ego-driven.

Those numbers back up her No. 1 position in the Democratic horse race, where 48% of respondents call Clinton their top choice.

She rates highest on the characteristics of most electable (57%, including 69% of respondents age 55 and over), and most presidential (52%). The poll includes Vice President Joe Biden, who lagged well behind Clinton on electability and presidential bearing but rated higher than Clinton’s closest competitor, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Biden announced he would not run for president on Wednesday, after polling concluded.

Sanders — who trails Clinton by 7 percentage points in the latest Iowa Poll horse race — is far behind her on most of the characteristics tested. He came closest on the question about candidates’ ability to bring about real change: 41% say Clinton is the top change agent in the field, against 37% who say it’s Sanders.

A 23% plurality said Lincoln Chafee, the former Rhode Island senator, was the Democratic candidate most in over his head. On Friday, Chafee dropped out of the race.