

Photo Credit: Peter Llewellyn/USA TODAY SPORTS

The hockey world has been shocked today by a blockbuster deal of questionable contracts, which saw the Leafs trade Dion Phaneuf and a bunch of loose SPCs for every single short term bad contract the Senators have. The biggest name that comes back to Toronto? None other than 25-year-old defenceman Jared Cowen. He’s big, he’s bruising, and he had a lot of people who wanted him over Nazem Kadri in his draft here.

But maybe, just maybe, his tenure in Toronto should be short lived?

The most glaring issue with Jared Cowen is that he’s not what his supporters expected him to be. He might be the most perfect example of the risk beyond investing into young, defensive defencemen; the numerical side of the game as shown that while these players constantly look like they’re “playing defence”, the act of having to play defence is already counter-productive to success as it stands.

Cowen is mobile enough for a 6’7 body, but that doesn’t make him quick compared to the big picture. When you combine that with his lack of offensive instinct, he often finds himself chasing the play. Most of his linemates find themselves giving up fewer attempts, taking a higher percentage of them when playing away from him. Depending on luck, the goals go either way.

CF%Rel SF%Rel GF%Rel OSZ%Rel OISH% OISV% 11/12 (82GP) -0.3 (2nd/7) -0.51 (2nd/7) -8.21 (6th/7) 1.43 (3rd/7) 7.24 (5th/7) 0.910 (7th/7) 13/14 (68GP) -1.1 (4th/8) -2.74 (7th/8) 3.78 (3rd/8) 0.28 (5th/8) 7.87 (2nd/8) 0.932 (3rd/8) 14/15 (54GP) -3.15 (5th/8) -2.64 (5th/8) -18.03 (8th/8) -4.39 (6th/8) 7.41 (5th/8) 0.907 (8th/8) 15/16 (37GP) -5.25 (6th/7) -4.65 (6th/7) 3.21 (3rd/7) -7.32 (6th/7) 9.95 (2nd/7) 0.939 (2nd/7)

Over the full course of his career, Cowen has been a negative possession player who has been placed in progressively defensive minutes as the organization realized that he wasn’t going to become a two-way defender. Granted, he’s not entirely useless; the numbers align with the eyeballs and player traits in the sense that the Sens have historically been more effective penalty killers with him on the ice, but he’s certainly closer to “sign in September” than he is to “draft in the top ten”.

Finding a spot for him with the Leafs is going to be tough. For this year, it doesn’t really matter; Mike Babcock will do his best to win every night, but his roster currently consists of about five or six healthy players that teams would pursue as more than a Plan C. He still has one more year on his deal after this season, though, and you have to imagine that the Leafs are going to want to start the upward climb come October.

Maybe it just makes sense to buy him out?

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Cap Hit 3100000 3100000 3100000 3100000 RFA Real Dollars 1500000 2700000 3700000 4500000 RFA Buyout -650000 750000

Cowen’s contract is an anomaly in the NHL, and it’s one that can play to the favour of the Maple Leafs. The back-loading of his contract means that Cowen is due nearly $1.5 million more than his cap hit next season, which creates a rare window of opportunity for a cap credit in his first year, as opposed to a penalty.

This was of little use to the Senators, who are a budget team that don’t usually spend to the Salary Cap. But it gives the Leafs a few options. For one, they could find a team that is really hurting for short term space next year and offer him to them as a half rental, half credit at this year’s trade deadline, especially if one of those teams isn’t able to find that “missing piece” and begins settling for a lesser addition. They might not get a ton for him, but a prospect or a pick of any kind would be a meaningful incentive.

Alternatively, they could use that credit for themselves. If a certain impact forward wearing a different shade of blue and white ends up actually hitting the market, for example, it gives them a little bit more wiggle room to make a blockbuster offer. Moving Phaneuf solved the long term means to that end today; but this could mend any short-term concerns as well.

Assuming the Leafs aren’t able to move Milan Michalek before October and keep Colin Greening in the minors with prospect Tobias Lindberg, their combined cap hit with a Cowen buyout would be $5.05 million; giving the Leafs $2 million in savings next season, and $7 million in four years that follow.

Ultimately, it’s possible that this speculation is all for naught. Maybe the coaching staff find that the Senators were using Cowen in an improper way and turn him into a valuable defensive piece over the next few months, making this trade even better for an entirely different reason. But given Cowen’s history, the odds aren’t overly favourable that such a thing will happen. It’s not a bad idea to think of alternative options as soon as they’re available, and a buyout would give the Leafs a lot of flexibility.





