A recent commentary speculated that the rise in the performance of California students on the College Board’s Advanced Placement exams might be linked to students’ choices in music.

While the opinion was not very convincing, it did rely on widely reported data from the 2016 AP results, which quoted state Superintendent Tom Torlakson. He noted that there had been a gain of 8 percent in California’s AP passing rates since 2006. (2017 results will be available next month).

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College Board demands proof of AP course quality

An Oakland school cut its last AP course, but teachers are teaching it anyway The AP program is a series of 38 college-level courses and exams students can take in high school, for which they may receive college credit. The nationally administered AP exam is scored on a scale of 1 to 5, with 3 being considered a passing score. Some colleges will grant students credit for an exam grade of 3, but increasingly, more-selective universities require a 4 or 5.

AP has enjoyed phenomenal growth — about 10 percent per year for the last 15 years. But that growth has come with a price — increasing failure percentages based on tests taken.

Therefore, the purported “rise” in AP scores is a bit deceptive. Since 2005, the College Board has reported scores to states as a percentage based on the number of graduating seniors (not test takers). What that has done is to encourage states to administer more and more AP classes and exams since students who fail the exams (scoring 1’s and 2’s) are counted no differently than students who didn’t take AP exams.

So, for example, assume a school has 200 graduating seniors and that number remains relatively constant throughout the years. In hypothetical year No. 1, a hundred kids in the school take a total of 150 exams and 100 of those exams receive passing scores.

The reported passing percentage from the College Board would be 50 percent. (100 exams received passing scores and 200 seniors graduated). But the true passing percentage would be 66.7 percent. (150 exams were taken of which 100 received passing scores).

Now in hypothetical year No. 2, kids take a total of 220 exams and 110 exams receive passing scores. The College Board reports that the school had a passing percentage of 55 percent, an increase. (There were 110 exams with passing marks and 200 graduating seniors). But notice that the true passing percentage actually declined from 66.7 percent to 50 percent.

Obviously, if states want to be assured of receiving the College Board’s “increasing passing percentages” phony imprimatur year-to-year, they need to get more and more kids taking more and more exams.

And that’s exactly what has happened.

Unfortunately, as the program has grown, the failure rates (based on actual test takers) have climbed as well. What has been particularly disturbing has been the percentage increase in students scoring 1’s, the lowest possible score. Since 1996, that figure has climbed by more than 5 percent, even though it has declined slightly in recent years. What that suggests is that too many students are being encouraged to take AP without adequate preparation.

In California, it’s important to remember that the purported 8 percent rise is based on graduating seniors, not tests actually taken. Based on actual tests taken, 59 percent of exams received passing scores in 2006 and 58 percent passed in 2016.

The slight decline is fairly insignificant in California but some states — such as neighboring Nevada — routinely have less than half of exams receiving passing scores.

So while California has done an admirable job balancing AP growth, it is imperative that school districts in the state not get caught up in AP hype which insists on feeding ever greater numbers of tests to inadequately nourished students.

Patrick Mattimore taught AP psychology in the Bay Area and now lives in Thailand.