After the results of the UP byelections, in which BJP lost two seats, there’s a renewed question about the party’s chances for a second-term at the Centre. There are various theories making the rounds, including possible scenarios of what the actual numbers will be. After all, the BJP won 71 out the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP in 2014. To capture power in 2019, winning UP is absolutely essential. But it is premature to speculate; politics is a game of chance and uncertainty. It would be prudent to defer till later conjectures of what might happen in 2019. Yet, the byelections do demand an analysis. What are the implications of the results for 2019?

As to UP, one of the key questions is how the BJP candidate lost in Yogi Adityanath’s stronghold, Gorakhpur? Isn’t that a slap in Yogi’s face? Perhaps, the simple if unpalatable answer is, yes. Political pundits point out that the Yogi was getting too big for his boots. This can only be a metaphor not only because he doesn’t wear boots, but because his stature at the national level is at best tenuous. If he is a great draw at election campaigns outside UP, it is because he is exotic rather than an accepted all-India leader.

Perhaps, the second reason is that he is authentic. He doesn’t speak like a conventional politician, not does he behave like one. Politics is India’s great carnival. Voters turn up at rallies not just to decide whom to vote for, but also to be entertained and informed. The Yogi talks and shoots straight. This makes him attractive to common Indians, who wish to see something different in their politicians. World-wide, there is “democracy fatigue.” India is no exception. Here, too, a leader like Yogi Adityanath represents something different, out of the box, even exceptional. If so, how come the BJP candidate lost in UP?

The answer to this one borders on the complex. The argument is that there’s in-fighting and jealousy in the UP BJP owing to the Yogi’s unprecedented rise to power and fame. He is the virtual dictator of India’s most populous state. Moreover, he remains a bit of an outsider to the political process. Politics is the art of wheeling and dealing or, to put it a bit more politely, of deal-making. A man like Adityanath isn’t interested in it. As a Yogi-politician, he is on a different wavelength or in a different zone from his peers. Many of them are in politics, to put it crudely, mostly to make money. Adityanath is not interested in money. If he is a true monk, why should he be? This queers the pitch for normal, one might even add, professional politicians. The latter can never be happy when “outsiders”— or outriders — like Adityanath capture centre-stage.

Don’t forget the rumours that after Narendra Modi, it is Yogi Adityanath who is in the running for the Prime Ministership. That is if BJP manages to garner enough seats in the Lok Sabha. Many would not like this eventuality. They would prefer the sleaze and slush of coalition politics to these virtual dictators and “big men” taking charge. Not just the Samajwadi Party but the BSP would be happier with a less determined, more malleable man at the helm of affairs of UP than Adityanath. Adiyanath, it is said, is unpopular in the political biradari precise because he is not corrupt himself, nor does he tolerate corruption in his subordinates (na khud khata hai, na doosron ko khane deta hai). How can such a leader be liked by his peers?

If you don’t want Adityanath to be CM, let alone PM, what would you do? Wouldn’t you ensure that in his home constituency, which happens to be Gorakhpur, the BJP candidate loses? Those who are gleefully latching on to the bypoll results will be somewhat disappointed to know that the data is against them. Only in 30 per cent of cases do bypolls accurately foretell the results of the main elections. In other words, in 70 per cent of cases, the results of the main elections go contrary to the bypolls. Bypolls, after all, are a local affair. One must taken into account the specific context and content of the election, the local factors, the candidates, the incumbency or anti-incumbency as the case may be, the swing for or against the ruling party, and so on. Whether it is UP or Gujarat, the results of the byelections cannot, by themselves, be an accurate indication of things to come. UP is no exception to this rule.

What is perhaps more worrying for the ruling NDA is the breaking away of their other partners, whether it is the TDP or the YSR Congress. What we see in both these cases is the centre-staging of regional concerns. Can Andhra Pradesh politics actually change the power-equations in New Delhi. Again, the answer is much more complicated than a simple “yes” or “no”— in this case, I would hazard to say, “almost, but not quite.” Though the YSR Congress and TDP have moved a “no-confidence” motion against the ruling NDA, their chances of toppling the government are slim. The NDA has 272 seats, six more than the half-way mark of 269.

But the TDP’s declared divorce means a loss of 16 MPs to NDA. This cannot be taken lightly. Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and their strategic core team members will have to take these developments seriously. If 2019 is to be won, what are the counter-strategies to these developments?

The author is a poet and professor at JNU. Views expressed are personal.