WASHINGTON — Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who Donald Trump once called a "rising star," is in danger of becoming a shooting star because of him.



Locked in a tough reelection fight with two-term Democrat Gov. Maggie Hassan, Ayotte's poll numbers took a significant dip last month. As Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's own poll numbers tumbled, Hassan surged to lead Ayotte 46-38 percent among likely voters, according to a WMUR-Granite State poll released Oct. 20. Subsequent polls show Ayotte leading by a thin margin.

Campaigning in her blue-leaning state, Ayotte has largely been on the defensive over Trump's candidacy, and after more than a year in a dead heat with Hassan, pollsters said, Hassan's attacks began to manifest in Ayotte's falling favorability ratings.

"I think Sen. Ayotte could pull it out, or she could lose," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the WMUR-Granite State poll. "This race has been so close throughout that it could come down to the last week. What would surprise me is if the results are more than a couple of percentage points apart."

The race could also determine control of the US Senate. Republicans hold 54 seats, with 34 seats up on Election Day, 24 of them Republican. Six of those are widely considered to be in play — Florida, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania — and Democrats need three.



In a sign that Republicans are shifting focus to bolster Senate candidates, the conservative US Chamber of Commerce on Oct. 21 launched an ad that touted Ayotte as a hedge on the White House and suggested Hassan would be "unchecked by a new president in Washington."

In Ayotte, 48, the GOP has an advocate on national security, with a law and order background, from a competitive state. She serves on the Armed Services, Homeland Security and Budget committees, and as counsel to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. Among other national issues, the first-term senator has campaigned to keep the Air Force's budget axe away from the A-10 Thunderbolt II, which her husband flew in Iraq.

Mentioned as a possible running mate for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012, Ayotte should continue a promising political career if she wins Nov. 8, said Nathan Gonzales, of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.

"If Sen. Ayotte hadn't been running for re-election, I think she would have been on the short list of running mates for a normal [presidential] nominee," Gonzales said. "There are a lot of attractive things there that are contrary to most of the Republican [field], but she would probably have to be reelected to keep that going."

In a Democratic-leaning state like New Hampshire, the political lifespan of any Republican senator would always be tenuous. Considered one of the Senate's "Three Amigos," with Sens. Lindsey Graham and John McCain, she is the only one who does not come from a solidly Republican state.

× Fear of missing out? Sign up for the Early Bird Brief, the defense industry's most comprehensive news and information, straight to your inbox. Thanks for signing up. By giving us your email, you are opting in to the Early Bird Brief.

Fighting for her political survival, Ayotte has always been chilly toward Trump. However, Trump endorsed her, McCain and House Speaker Paul Ryan in August in a play at party unity that turned out to be short-lived. All three lawmakers subsequently rebuked Trump after a 2005 video surfaced on Oct. 7 of him having a lewd conversation that included remarks about groping women, and his campaign has fired back at all three to varying degrees.

Before she rejected him outright, Ayotte was on a Trump tightrope for months, pledging to vote for Trump as her party's nominee while refusing to endorse him and distancing herself from his statements.

During a televised debate against Hassan Oct. 1, Ayotte made an unforced error — saying she would would "absolutely" point to Donald Trump as a role model for children. She later issued a statement saying she "misspoke," and told CNN Oct. 24, "I made a mistake."



When the Trump video surfaced, Ayotte rescinded her endorsement, calling Trump "a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting women." She has said she would write in Trump's running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.



"I stood up and called Donald Trump out on many occasions," Ayotte said. "That tape for me, having served as a prosecutor, was fundamentally different. That to me is why I'm not voting for him. And I'm not voting for Hillary Clinton either, because I can't support her policies."





Still, Ayotte has been under a continuous barrage from Hassan, in television ads and mailers. Ayotte has been hitting back, pollsters say, campaigning hard on her foreign-policy and national security credentials, but to limited effect.

"This isn't a foreign policy election, despite what's going on throughout the world," Smith said. "It's not gaining traction because this is more of a celebrity election. In the [presidential] debates, foreign policy comes up for a second or two before it devolves into name calling."

After the third presidential debate, in which Trump suggested he might not accept the outcome of the election, Ayotte sought to distance herself again, telling NBC News that Trump needs to "accept the outcome."



Ayotte's statement followed one from Hassan, saying, "Senator Ayotte must take responsibility for the fact that she has legitimized Trump's campaign for months by supporting him for president."

One cause for Ayotte and her backers to hope is that the latest poll may be inaccurate.

Tennessee Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn, a Trump supporter, told CNN on Oct. 21 Ayotte has an "incredible" voter mobilization team, adding, "Kelly Ayotte is running stronger than those polls indicate."





According to Smith, the Granite State poll does skew Democratic because, as Trump's popularity dives, state Republicans have been less likely to participate in polls—a phenomenon he called a "spiral of silence."

"I think the race is probably closer than polls indicate," Smith said. "When people think the top of their ticket is unpopular or their candidate is losing, they just don't answer the phones to talk to pollsters."

Of the Republicans who did reply, 69 percent felt favorably toward Ayotte, while 78 percent of Democrats felt favorably towards Hassan, which makes them comparable. However, 81 percent of Republicans polled said they would vote for Ayotte, and 84 of Democrats said they would vote for Hassan. Independents are almost evenly split.

That means turnout will make all the difference.