NSG fails to move on India’s membership for the second year Berne plenary ends without much movement, but promises an informal meet in November

The Annual plenary meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in the Swiss capital of Berne (July 22-23) ended without agreeing on India’s case for a membership, for a second year, although member states agreed to convene another meeting on the subject of non-signatories to the Non Proliferation Treaty, like India and Pakistan, in another five months.

According to a public statement issued on Friday night by the 48-member body, that holds all consultations in secret, and takes decisions by consensus, “The NSG had discussions on the issue of ‘Technical, Legal and Political Aspects of the Participation of non-NPT States in the NSG’. The Group decided to continue its discussion and noted the intention of the Chair to organise an informal meeting in November.”

The announcement of the November date denoted “progress”, an Indian official said on Saturday, while the NSG also noted India’s special relationship with the group owing to the nuclear waiver India won in 2008 to conduct nuclear business and the NSA said the Berne plenary had “continued to consider all aspects of the implementation of the 2008 Statement on Civil Nuclear Cooperation with India and discussed the NSG relationship with India.”

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The “technical, legal and political aspects” phrase in the NSG statement is part of a process decided on in 2016, when India and Pakistan had both formally applied for membership to build criteria for admitting non-NPT members. India would prefer to see a “case-by-case” basis membership process employed, given it has an impeccable record on nuclear transparency compared to Pakistan, who is accused of nuclear smuggling. At the end of the plenary session in 2016, the NSG Chairperson had appointed Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi to oversee the process of building a consensus on the issue, but it is unclear if he will continue to lead that effort this year.

China blamed

India has blamed China for being the “one country” stopping the NSG from a consensus, and although other members are understood to have expressed their concerns on a non-inclusive process, China has been prominent in objecting publicly, leading most experts to conclude the process won’t be resolved quickly.

“[The NSG issue] is now part of the growing list of intractables with China, and there is not enough to permit a give and take,” said the former Prime Minister’s nuclear envoy, Rakesh Sood, when asked whether the stand-off would continue.

The continuing strain in India-China relations has dimmed prospects of any consensus coming quickly, given that other countries are wary of intervening on India’s behalf, said others.

“The U.S. and western countries are not prepared to confront China on this issue at this time. The U.S. needs China to help deal with the Korean nuclear programme and Indian NSG membership is not a current priority. So [membership] is likely to be a long haul but we should insist that it remains on the NSG agenda,” said former Foreign Secretary and Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board Shyam Saran.

Notwithstanding reported attempts by New Delhi to ask Washington and Moscow to do more of the “heavy lifting” for India, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with the Chinese President at the SCO summit in Astana on June 9, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs repeated on Friday that there was “no change to China’s position”, on the admission of non-Non Proliferation Treaty states.

Apart from China, non-proliferation hardliners inside the NSG remain ambiguous on the issue, an NSG official conceded, further clouding India’s path.