For immediate release Wednesday, November 18 8 pages

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Governor Christie’s Presidential Bid Loses Support of New Jersey Republicans

Donald Trump leads the pack, with Marco Rubio claiming second place among Garden State Republicans

Bernie Sanders picks up undecided voters, but continues to lag behind Hillary Clinton

Fairleigh Dickinson University, November 17, 2015 – Support for Governor Chris Christie’s presidential bid has dropped in half among New Jersey Republicans over the last four months. Back in June, 18 percent of registered Republicans said they supported him for his party’s presidential nomination. Today that number is down to nine percent, according to the most recent statewide survey of registered voters in New Jersey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind.

The big vote getter is business magnate and political neophyte, Donald Trump, who attracts the support of 31 percent of Republicans, with Florida Senator Marco Rubio surging to second with the support of 18 percent. Rounding out the list of those in the double digits is Dr. Ben Carson, who registers 11 percent support in New Jersey.

“Our polling consistently shows that Republicans in the Garden State like straight talkers. But Governor Christie’s blunt approach is clearly facing unexpected competition from Donald Trump. And, to the extent that Christie was considered strong among the so-called ‘establishment’ candidates, he now has the rising appeal of Rubio to contend with. The people back home are not supporting their governor as much as he might have expected,” said Krista Jenkins, director of PublicMind and professor of political science.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is supported more than her closest rival by a sizable margin. Around two-thirds of Democrats (64%) favor Clinton over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (27%). Clinton’s numbers have remained unchanged from June, the last time PublicMind asked registered voters in the Garden State about their presidential preferences. However, Sanders’ numbers increased from 15 to 27 percent. Sanders appears to be drawing support from those who were previously undecided.

The same survey finds that more than half of respondents in the Garden State (56%) say they disapprove of the job Christie is currently doing as governor. While clear majorities of Democrats and independents say they disapprove of his leadership, these numbers also reflect the continued trend among Republicans of a tightening favorable to unfavorable gap. Of the governor’s fellow Republicans, 51 percent say they approve of his job performance while 37 percent disapprove. This is a much smaller difference (14 points) than the nearly three-to-one ratio of approval to disapproval a little over a year ago.

Republican views of Governor Christie

“With declining support among his base, and the next gubernatorial election beginning to loom, it will be more difficult for Governor Christie to corral the support of Republicans. Recent unexpected losses for Republicans in the New Jersey Assembly only complicate the governor’s tale of electability and bipartisan leadership,” said Jenkins.

The news remains grim regarding perceptions of the state’s health. About a third (32%) say the state is headed in the right direction, with 59 percent who believe the state is doing poorly.

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey was conducted by landline and cellular telephone November 9 -15, 2015 among a random statewide sample of 830 self-identified registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 points, including the design effect.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from November 9-15, using a randomly selected sample of 830 self-identified registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race. 427 interviews were conducted on landlines and 403 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor? [Randomize approve/disapprove] PID Gender Race Union household? Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white Yes No 18-34 35-59 60+ Approve 34% 22 30 51 35 34 35 33 20 39 32 36 35 Disapprove 56% 73 52 37 53 59 56 56 74 51 56 54 58 Neither/ Neutral (vol) 7% 5 11 9 9 5 6 8 6 7 7 8 6 DK/Both (vol) 2% 1 3 1 2 2 1 2 0 2 4 1 1 Refused (vol) 1% 0 5 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0

In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Rotate right direction/wrong track] PID Gender Race Union household? Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white Yes No 18-34 35-59 60+ Right direction 32% 26 30 41 34 30 30 37 20 36 41 32 25 Wrong track 59% 66 56 50 58 60 61 55 76 54 49 61 65 DK (vol) 8% 7 12 8 7 9 8 9 3 10 10 7 9 Refused (vol) 1% 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0

I’m going to read you a list of current and prospective candidates for the Republican nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST) [N = 307; MoE = =/- 5.6] November June April Jeb Bush 5% 18 13 Ben Carson 11% 6 Not asked Chris Christie 9% 18 20 Ted Cruz 6% 3 8 Carly Fiorina 5% 3 Not asked Lindsey Graham 1% 1 Not asked Mike Huckabee 2% 3 Not asked Bobby Jindal 0 0 Not asked John Kasich 2% 0 Not asked George Pataki 0 2 Not asked Rand Paul 2% 5 8 Marco Rubio 18% 6 Not asked Rick Santorum 1% 2 Not asked Donald Trump 31% 11 Not asked Other (vol) 1% 2 15 Wouldn’t vote (vol) 1% 2 0 DK/Refused (vol) 5% 10 22

I’m going to read you a list of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST) [N = 384; MoE = +/- 5] November June April Hillary Clinton 64% 63 62 Another Democratic nominee Not asked Not asked 9 Bernie Sanders 27% 15 Not asked Martin O’Malley 2% 3 Not asked Other (vol) 1% 1 Not asked Wouldn’t vote (vol) 3% 3 0 DK/Refused (vol) 3% 14 28

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 and US2 withheld

NJ1. And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is

doing as governor? [Randomize approve/disapprove]

1 Approve

2 Disapprove

3 Neither [vol] or Neutral [vol]

8 DK [vol] or both [vol]

9 Refused (vol)

TREND Approve Disapprove

1/10 48 13

3/3/10 52 21

3/30/10 43 32

5/10 44 42

8/10 47 36

10/10 51 37

11/10 49 39

1/11 53 36

2/11 51 39

4/11 51 41

5/11 44 44

9/11 54 36

10/11 51 36

1/12 53 37

3/12 54 34

5/12 56 33

8/12 55 35

9/12 51 35

Pre election 11/12 56 33

Post election 11/12 77 17

1/13 73 19

3/13 66 20

6/13 61 26

8/13 58 29

10/13 62 35

11/13 61 24

1/14 48 39

3/14 41 44

6/14 44 44

7/14 44 41

9/14 46 40

10/14 41 47

1/15 39 47

2/15 35 51

4/15 36 50

6/15 30 55

11/15 34 56

NJ2. In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Randomize right direction/wrong track]

1 Right direction

2 Wrong track

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

TREND Right direction Wrong track DK/Ref

1/10 27 55 12

3/3/10 32 49 18

3/30/10 33 55 20

5/10 35 55 13

8/10 42 48 10

10/10 44 48 11

11/10 40 51 10

1/11 44 48 8

2/11 44 47 10

4/11 44 47 9

5/11 36 55 9

9/11 45 47 9

10/11 46 43 11

1/12 44 47 9

3/12 51 39 10

5/12 50 41 9

8/12 49 40 11

9/12 52 34 13

Pre election 11/12 58 30 12

Post election 11/12 69 19 12

1/13 61 26 13

3/13 57 26 17

6/13 57 28 14

8/13 49 34 16

11/13 56 28 16

1/14 51 39 10

3/14 41 45 13

6/14 40 48 13

7/14 39 46 15

9/14 40 44 17

10/14 37 49 13

1/15 36 49 15

2/15 33 52 16

4/15 35 54 14

6/15 28 57 15

11/15 32 59 9

NJ3 withheld for future release

SEX1 and SEX2 withheld for future release

PRES1 through PRES4 withheld for future release

ID series withheld for future release

TAX1 through TAX3 withheld for future release

Finally, just some questions about yourself…

D1 Regardless of who you might vote for, do you consider yourself a….ROTATE…

Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?

1 Democrat

2 Republican

3 Independent [If Independent, ask D1b]

4 Other [DON’T READ]

8 Don’t Know [DON’T READ]

9 Ref [DON’T READ]

D1b Which way do you lean?

1 Democrat

2 Republican

3 Neither

8 DK (Vol)

If DEM/LEAN DEM ASK PRESD; IF REPUB/LEAN REPUB ASK PRESR

PRESRA I’m going to read you a list of current and prospective candidates for the Republican nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST)

1 Jeb Bush

2 Ben Carson

3 Chris Christie

4 Ted Cruz

5 Carly Fiorina

6 Lindsey Graham

7 Mike Huckabee

8 Bobby Jindal

9 John Kasich

10 George Pataki

11 Rand Paul

12 Marco Rubio

13 Rick Santorum

14 Donald Trump

15 Other (vol)

16 Wouldn’t vote (vol)

98 DK (vol)

99 Refused (vol)

PRESDA I’m going to read you a list of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST)

1 Hillary Clinton

2 Bernie Sanders

3 Martin O’Malley

4 Other (vol)

5 Wouldn’t vote (vol)

98 DK (vol)

99 Refused (vol)

Weighted sample characteristics