It has been a troubled start to the tour of South Africa at the end of a troubling year for England’s Test team.

One down with three to play, they seem certain to make changes for the Cape Town Test, which starts on January 3. Illness remains an issue, and they will have to assess things day by day.

Dom Sibley is the 11th player in the squad to suffer from the bug, but Ollie Pope is back in training and likely to replace Jonny Bairstow in the side. Chris Woakes and Jack Leach are out of quarantine, but playing a game in four days after well over a week in isolation seems highly unlikely.

Leach has not bowled a ball all tour, and was very ill in New Zealand a month ago. He suffers from Crohn’s Disease and Joe Root’s concern was evident on Sunday. “It's been really a tough month or so for him having gone down in New Zealand as well,” he said. “It's really sad actually and really hard for him”. There has been concern over whether Leach would stay on tour, but the news that he is out of quarantine is encouraging.

All of which leaves England with another selection muddle. They played five seamers in Centurion, but will surely want a spinner at Newlands. If Leach remains unavailable, there are two other spinners on tour (ignoring Gareth Batty, 42, and Vic Marks, 64, here on media duties).

Matt Parkinson, the uncapped 23-year-old leggie with a decent first-class record but who good judges believe might be better suited to international white-ball cricket, and Dom Bess. Bess is a fine cricketer, who despite often being Leach’s understudy at Somerset can bat, bowl and field, as he showed in two Tests against Pakistan in 2018.

England player ratings Rory Burns - 7

Terrific on Saturday afternoon to give England hope, but his dismissal – with a third Test century in sight – was desperately frustrating for him and England fans. Dom Sibley - 5

Patient innings on Saturday, and offered stability in England’s biggest opening stand in three years. But a terribly soft dismissal gave it away at an important time. Joe Denly - 7

Made 81 runs in the match, which England will see as a fair return. Settling, but still not settled. Second innings 31 is bang on his Test average. Joe Root - 6

Decision at toss rather haunted England, and was among the guiltiest in the first innings collapse. Was in the wars, taking blows to the head and arm and falling ill, and batted firmly in the second innings until Anrich Nortje nicked him off. With him went England’s last hope. Ben Stokes - 5

Another to play a poor shot in the first innings, but he battled back well from illness and his father’s ill heath to bowl well. Tried to seize the initiative in second innings, but did not quite work. Jonny Bairstow - 4

Two poor dismissals on his return to the side, which feels like it will be short-lived. Bowled again in the first innings, then impetuous in the second against the new ball. Jos Buttler - 5

Kept tidily until he fell ill and was unfortunate that he was left with the tail in both innings, meaning he had little choice but to get on with it. Remains an utter enigma in Tests. Sam Curran - 7

The best of the bowlers on the first day, when his four wickets were vital. Is developing as a bowler, finding swing later in the innings and using his bouncer well. Flickered with the bat, but cannot be part of a bailout every time. Jofra Archer - 6

Slow start to the game after illness, and perhaps too wedded to the short ball. But took five (expensive) wickets in the second innings. Stuart Broad - 6

Also overcame illness and was pretty consistent throughout the match, picking up five wickets. James Anderson - 5

Gave England rapid starts in both innings and rarely bowled poorly – just did not pick up anymore wickets. Could he be rested in Cape Town to accommodate a spinner?

Bess is the likeliest candidate, but England scratching around in search of a spinner highlights one of their more notable recent management failures. They actually have an experienced spinner with 181 Test wickets – not to mention five centuries – who has been involved in series wins against South Africa at home and away: Moeen Ali.

But in August, Moeen endured a poor first Ashes Test, where he was tormented by Nathan Lyon when batting and shown up by him when bowling. He subsequently lost his place, then his Test central contract, and made himself unavailable for the tour of New Zealand.

He was dropped after one particularly gruesome game and, given the hold the Australians had on him Down Under two years ago and the hit his confidence took in the World Cup, it was perfectly reasonable to leave him out of the side. Leach came in and was solid, helping England win games with the bat (Headingley) and the ball (the Oval), although overstepping when dismissing Steve Smith at Old Trafford was one of the defining moments of Australia’s Ashes retention. Despite his cult hero status, Leach went into the winter with plenty to prove.

But there was no need for Moeen, a popular and successful figure, to be cast adrift from the Test team with the removal of his contract. In the year prior, Moeen had taken 45 wickets – more than any other Test bowler. His average was just 23 and his strike-rate under 40. He had been a crucial part of victories over India at home and Sri Lanka away.

The contract removal left him with a significant loss of earnings that could not be made up by simply being a squad member on tour (earning a tour fee and match fees if he got a game, rather than having a retainer). That financial shortfall could, though, be made up on the short-form circuit, where he is a player of considerable pedigree and earning potential.

And so, until now, his winter has involved a couple of games for the Cape Town Blitz in the Mzanzi Super League, then six matches slogging for Team Abu Dhabi in the T10. In February, he will turn out for Multan Sultans in the Pakistan Super League (he was their first pick in the draft), before joining up with Virat Kohli’s Royal Challengers Bangalore in the IPL.

Root went on record to say he hoped Moeen would tour South Africa and attempts were made to persuade him. But it is hard to blame Moeen, who turns 33 in June, for going down this route. Especially given that Jonny Bairstow, who was dropped after the Ashes, kept his contract; and that Leach did not receive one himself; and that there was a tour of Sri Lanka looming. He says that he hopes a break can prolong his career after five full-on years.

Moeen would be very handy in Cape Town, and had England managed him better, by giving him a contract, the only selection poser would have been which fast bowler he replaces in the side.

Cape Town, though, is one thing, Colombo another entirely. England play two Test matches in Sri Lanka in March, with the utterly imperfect system offering 60 crucial World Test Championship points for each game. If England are to have any hope of making the final at Lord’s in 2021 – and it is looking pretty slim right now – they need a repeat of their sweep in Sri Lanka 13 months ago.

That series win was built around the varied spin trio of Moeen, Leach and Adil Rashid. All three being available again would give them a shot, but currently, there is an impasse with Moeen and Rashid is injured. So Leach could lead an attack containing youngsters like Bess and Parkinson or Liam Dawson, another left-arm orthodox. Winning with so little experience would be tough.

So it is incumbent on Director of Cricket Ashley Giles – with whom Moeen has had a slightly strained relationship for some years – to sort this mess out promptly. Moeen offers too much to be missing right now.