The novel coronavirus is ramping up in Alabama and across the South. Just as terms like “social distancing” and “flatten the curve” have become part of everyday conversation, so too has the ever increasing count of confirmed cases.

In Alabama, as of the morning of March 24th, there were 215 confirmed cases of COVID-19 - the disease caused by the new coronavirus. But problems with testing access - and in some cases with the tests themselves - the real number is almost certainly much higher.

Alabama currently has far fewer confirmed cases than many of its close neighbors. The state ranks 11th among 17 Southern states and the District of Columbia for confirmed cases as of the morning of Tuesday, March 24, according to data from the public health departments of Southern states.

Across the South, there were 7,186 confirmed cases as of Tuesday morning.

Confirmed Southern COVID-19 cases as of Tuesday morning, March 24th. | Graphic by Ramsey Archibald

Florida and Louisiana had the most confirmed cases as of Tuesday morning. There were 1,412 cases in Florida and 1,172 in Louisiana, according to the public health departments in those states. Both of those states recently had large public events where an attendee later tested positive for the virus.

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards spoke about the rapid rise of the virus in his state.

“There is no reason to believe that we won’t be the next Italy,” he said. “We have the fastest growth rate of confirmed cases in the world in the first 13 days right here in Louisiana.”

Texas had 826 cases, according to the Houston Chronicle. That was just ahead of Georgia’s 800 cases. Tennessee’s 615 cases was fifth among Southern states, and none outside the top 5 had more than 500 cases as of Tuesday morning.

But case counts are getting higher every day, and in many cases, states update the count multiple times a day. That makes keeping track of the totals difficult.

As cases continue to climb, the number of people who will die because of the coronavirus will climb, too. So far, no one in Alabama has died. It’s one of five Southern states with no deaths. But for how long? If the virus spreads quickly, Alabama’s healthcare system could be overwhelmed, leading to a worst-case scenario where people who need critical care can’t get it.

This is the problem that led to Italy passing China for the most deaths from the outbreak in recent days. Too many cases too quickly can lead to a surge in mortality. That’s what the governments and companies are taking such drastic measures to help “flatten the curve” and slow the spread of COVID-19.

Southern coronavirus deaths as of Tuesday morning, March 24th. | Graphic by Ramsey Archibald

Louisiana has already seen 35 deaths due to coronavirus, according to the Louisiana Department of Public Health. That’s the most among southern states.

Georgia, meanwhile, has seen 26 deaths in just 800 confirmed cases. That’s a mortality rate of 3.25 percent, the highest in the South, though virtually tied with Kentucky, which has seen four deaths in just 124 confirmed cases.

Alabama’s cases are spread mostly around the northern half of the state, and especially in the Birmingham metro area. More than half of the state’s confirmed cases are in Jefferson and Shelby counties - home of Birmingham and several of its affluent suburbs.

It’s possible that people are struggling to get tested in some parts of the state, especially rural areas and poor areas where people don’t have consistent access to transportation.

Here’s the full list of cases (and deaths) by state as of Tuesday morning:

1. Florida (1,412 cases, 18 deaths)

2. Louisiana (1,172 cases, 35 deaths)

3. Texas (826 cases, 9 deaths)

4. Georgia (800 cases, 26 deaths)

5. Tennessee (615 cases, 2 deaths)

6. North Carolina (410 cases, 0 deaths)

7. South Carolina (299 cases, 5 deaths)

8. Maryland (288 cases, 3 deaths)

9. Virginia (254 cases, 7 deaths)

10. Mississippi (249 cases, 1 death)

11. Alabama (215 cases, 0 deaths)

12. Arkansas (197 cases, 0 deaths)

13. Washington, D.C. (137 cases, 2 deaths)

14. Kentucky (124 cases, 4 deaths)

15. Delaware (87 cases, 0 deaths)

16. Oklahoma (81 cases, 2 deaths)

17. West Virginia (20 cases, 0 deaths.

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