Early voting turnout in Texas Primary feeds excitement among Democrats, Republican concern

AUSTIN – In a major political role reversal, Texas Republicans are approaching Tuesday's primaries concerned they'll be outvoted by Democrats, and Democrats are daring to hope the sky-high turnout by their party in early voting presages big gains in November.

"There is a reason to be concerned, for sure," said Matt Mackowiack, a veteran Republican operative in Austin. "Democrats are turning out to vote early. For Republicans, the early vote turnout pace is modeling past past midterm primaries.

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"For the Democrats, the early vote turnout is modeling past presidential primaries," he added. "That shows an enthusiasm gap."

That observation came after Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, a heavy favorite to win both renomination on Tuesday and re-election this fall, warned supporters that in Texas the pace of early voting by Democrats could jar loose the GOP's two-decade stranglehold on Texas.

"I’ll be blunt: Democrat voter turnout is surging statewide during Early Voting,” Abbott said earlier in the week in an email to supporters. "If these trends continue, we could be in real trouble come Election Day."

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Even before all of the numbers were tallied up for the early voting period that ends Friday, Democratic turnout for the 2018 midterm primaries in the state's 15 largest counties were about two times the totals in 2014.

And even though the Republicans numbers were also up from the midterm primaries four years ago, they still lagged the Democrats in the urban counties, and Democrats appeared to be closing the gap in the GOP-friendly large suburban counties.

Harold Cook, who was executive director of the Texas Democratic Party back when its strength rivaled the Republicans, said disaffection with President Donald Trump's presidency is powering people to the polls.

"It's all about anger, and anger is a hell of a motivator," said Cook, who also suggested that many Republican voters are displeased with Trump's performance so far.

That might account for some shifting in party allegiances, Cook said.

According to an analysis by the Austin political consultant firm, Ryan Data & Research of the big-county early voting turnout through Thursday, nearly 20 percent of the early-voting Democrats had never voted in a primary before. And almost 5 percent of Democratic turnout was from former Republican primary voters.

Of the total early vote Democratic turnout, only 67 percent was from people who regularly participate in the party's primary.

Among the GOP turnout, meanwhile, Ryan's analysis showed that 85 percent of the early voters regularly cast ballots in the Republican primary. And 2 percent of the GOP early vote was by crossover Democrats.

Early vote turnout for the smaller counties, which generally lean solid Republican, was not available from the Texas Secretary of State's office. But 65 percent of the Texas population lives in the 15 largest counties.

Mackowiak noted that several factors are in play that affect voter turnout in the primary, including whether there are high-profile contested statewide elections. Although Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and U.S. Sen.Ted Cruz have opponents in the GOP primary, none of the opposition candidates are well-funded or have been able to seize momentum from the incumbents.

On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso also has only nominal primary opposition. The contest for governor has nine Democrats, but two – former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez and Houston businessman Andrew White – are drawing the most notice. Still both candidates are operating on shoestring budgets.

Cook said down-ballot races for congressional and statehouse races are fueling voter interest among Democrats. And it remains uncertain if the party's excitement is such that the lion's share of the vote came during the early voting period, which could drive down Tuesday's participation.

Mackowiack said the reverse of that scenario might be playing out on the GOP side.

"The question is, are Republicans holding back for the actual election day while Democrats are voting early but not turning out on election day?" he said.

John C. Moritz covers Texas government and politics for the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at John.Moritz@caller.com and follow him on Twitter @JohnnieMo.