When IT consultant, author and developer Isseki Nagae titled an October 11, 2011, post on his blog “Why Japanese manufacturers keep losing to Apple, in the words of Steve Jobs” [jp], he probably knew he would draw some flak for it. Many of those who came to the post through Hatena, where it was bookmarked over two thousand times, no doubt expected to find some insights from the former Apple CEO on what is wrong with the Japanese electronics industry. With the iPhone finally making major inroads into the local mobile phone market, and Samsung stealing the spotlight from Japan's legendary gadget-makers, these insights are much in demand.

The post, though, wasn't exactly what its title seemed to imply. Instead of the words of Steve Jobs on the topic, the post was an opinion piece by Nagae, supported in part by things Steve Jobs had said in other contexts.

Nagae sets the backdrop:

トヨタ、ホンダなどの自動車メーカー以外の日本のメーカー、特に黒モノメーカーが海外メーカーに全く太刀打ちできなくなったと言われて５年くらいもたつが、ウォークマンで世界を凌駕したソニーをはじめ、IT関係、家電系は特にその兆候が痛々しい。ネット上でいろんな討論があるが、要は現在の日本の家電(特に黒モノ)メーカーはマーケティング力がめちゃくちゃ弱い、ということは間違いないように感じる。シャープのガラパゴスの惨敗なんてそのいい例だ。

About five years ago, Japanese manufacturers — and particularly consumer electronics manufacturers — hit a point where they simply could no longer compete with overseas competitors. The only real exceptions to this are car makers such as Toyota and Honda. Companies like Sony in contrast, which dazzled the world with the Walkman, and others in the IT-related and consumer electronics sectors, face a dire situation today. While there are a lot of discussions about this online, I don’t think anyone would deny the extreme weakness of Japanese electronics manufacturers in marketing. Sharp’s Galapagos disaster [ ref ] is a good example of this.

理由として挙げられる最大のものは、「素人の顧客の意見を聞きすぎる」ということにあるのではないかと考える。いい方を変えるならば、素人のユーザーの意見に左右されるのはいい加減にした方がいいということでもある。まあ日本のメーカーの経営者自体が素人に近いので、こうした資料が無いと開発にゴーが出ないのかもしれない、というのが最大の問題ではあるのだが・・。本田宗一郎やソニーの盛田昭夫さんが懐かしい今日この頃 です。いまの日本のメーカー経営者ってみんなサラリーマンで、出世が上手くて上がってきた人ばっかりだもんね。

The main reason for this is that these companies put way too much emphasis on the views of the average consumer. The views of consumers should not guide decision-making. But executives at Japanese manufacturers don’t know better themselves, so they won’t give the go-ahead on anything unless they’re sure of what consumers want. What happened to the days of Soichiro Honda [founder of the Honda Motor Company] and Akio Morita [co-founder of Sony]? Executives at Japanese manufacturers today are nothing but salarymen [ ref ] — every one of them got there by working their way up the corporate ladder.

昔から大手広告代理店などでは「リサーチ」「顧客調査」「ヒヤリング」などのもとに多額の予算をとって調査をかける。実は自分もけっこう参加したことがあ る。大手代理店にはユーザー集めてミーティングさせて、メーカー担当がこっそりそれを見るマジックミラー張りの部屋まで用意されているし、世の中には女子 高生を集めて商品企画するような会社もあると聞くが、これで本当にヒット作を企画出来るのかと言えば、自分もジョブズも全く必要ないと思っている(神と自 分を同じ扱いですみません)。実際、ユーザー集めてのミーティングの場にいたことも何度かあるが、たいしたアイデアは出たことがない。

Large advertising companies have long invested huge sums of money in conducting studies based on research, customer surveys and interviews. I myself have participated in such studies. At the big advertising agencies they round up users and market to them as reps from the manufacturing companies watch, sometimes through one-way mirrors. I’ve heard of some companies that go so far as to base their product planning on the opinions of schoolgirls. Will this type of planning seriously result in a hit product? I don't think so, and (not to put myself in the same category as a god, but) neither did Steve Jobs. I’ve actually been to many of these marketing focus groups, and I can tell you that no great ideas come of them.

Nagae then cites two well-known quotes from Steve Jobs. In the first, Jobs responds to a question about market research for the iPad (of which there was none):

It’s not the consumers’ job to know what they want.

The second, from a 1998 article in BusinessWeek, echoes the same sentiment. Jobs explains:

It’s really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.

Nagae concurs:

まったくその通りだと思う。素人の消費者にリサーチして、彼らが欲しい(と思われる)ものを作っても、彼らは全く別のものを買う。それが今の日本の黒モノ家電だ。

試しに「どんな携帯電話が欲しいか」聞いてみたらいい。

Exactly. You can try all you want to research what consumers want, make exactly what they (think they) want, and they will go and buy something completely different. That’s what’s happening with Japanese consumer electronics today. Try asking these consumers what kind of mobile phone they want.

絵文字が打てる、メールが片手で打てる、ワンセグは絶対欲しい、 防水がいい、おサイフ機能は必須、いろんな機能が付いていると楽しい・・・ETC・・・結果が世界に通用しないガラケー戦隊ですよ・・・

They’ll say they want emoji [ ref ], they want to write email with one hand, they absolutely must have 1seg [ ref ], oh and the device must be waterproof, and work as a digital wallet, and they'll ask for all kinds of other neat functions… and what you get is another forgettable Galapagos gadget that the world will just ignore.

そう答えた消費者が、ワンセグもなくお財布もなく入力もしにくいiPhoneに殺到しているのである。これは何故か。つまり、素人の客に聞いて、彼らがど んなものが欲しいのか忠実に作っていく方法は、まったく無意味ということなのだ。素人が考えつかないようなものでないと売れない。

Consumers who said they wanted these things then flood to buy their own iPhone, which doesn't have 1seg, doesn't work as a digital wallet, and doesn't allow easy data input. It's a complete waste of time to listen to consumers and produce exactly what they want. If you want to make something that sells, you have to come up with something that the average person could never even conceive of.

Later, he draws parallels:

つまり、本当の商品企画というものは、独善的に「ユーザーに思いつかないような斬新なコンセプト」が閃めくような人しかできないということです。ラーメン 屋でもケーキ屋でもパソコンメーカーでもこれは同じなんです。日産が復活したんだって、絶対売れないといわれて生産中止になっていたフェアレディZをカル ロス・ゴーンが再開発したからじゃないですか。Facebookだってザッカーバーグが独善的に機能を詰め込んでいまのかたちになったから世界を支配し た。極論をいえば顧客の意見なんて聞く必要は無いのだ。顧客にスゲエ、と言わせれば良いだけの話です。

The only people who are really capable of product planning are those with the insight needed to imagine new concepts that the average user would never even think of. It’s the same whether it’s a ramen [noodle] shop, a cake shop or a PC manufacturer. Nissan made its comeback when Carlos Ghosn redeveloped the Fairlady Z — a car which had been discontinued because people said it wouldn’t sell. Facebook would never have dominated the world the way it did without the features that Mark Zuckerberg crammed into it. This may sound extreme, but there’s really no need to ask the user for their thoughts at all. If at the end they say it’s amazing, then that’s all that’s important.

Responses to the post were mixed. KoshianX:

これはソフトウェア開発をするとすごくよくわかると思う。お客さんの要望をそのままきくとたいていダメなシステムになってしまう

For anyone in software development, this really rings true. If you build exactly what the customer wants, you get a useless system.

munioka303:

意味が分からないエントリ。素人顧客の意見が反映されてるの？誰かワンセグ欲しいって言ったか？Appleが勝ってる理由はそんな事じゃないよ。こういう嬉々として「ジョブズ語録」とかやっちゃう人を大量生産できたから

What nonsense. Do products reflect the opinion of average consumers? Did anyone actually say they wanted the 1seg? These discussions aren't related to why Apple is winning. They're winning because they've managed to produce loads of people who will gleefully recite the “gospel of Steve Jobs”.

And raitu:

だから日本メーカーっていうか世界中のメーカーがApple一社に負けっ放しなんだっつうの。自虐大好き日本人もそろそろ見飽きてきた。

Look, it's not just Japanese manufacturers, it's all manufacturers that are losing to Apple. I'm getting sick of these Japanese who love nothing more than to put their country down.

But perhaps the most interesting thought in the post appeared in the comment thread, where Nagae sums up the situation with a comparison between Sony 30 years ago and Apple today:

その昔、ウォークマンの時代はウォークマンのステッカーを貼ってる車もいました。今でもAppleのステッカーを貼ってる車はけっこういますよね。でもい まやソニーや東芝のステッカーを貼ってる車なんて営業車以外いません。「自分はこれのファンである」とユーザーが堂々と公言できる作品を創っているかどう かで考えれば、間違いなくAppleにメタメタにやられていると思いますよ。

Way back then, there were cars with Sony stickers on them. Today, there are cars with Apple stickers on them. But try finding a car with a Sony or Toshiba sticker today — only company cars driven by sales people have them. Can your company inspire people to proudly proclaim themselves a fan of your products? When you think about it that way, it's pretty clear that Apple is wiping the floor with these companies today.