Joe Biden has a 21 point lead over Bernie Sanders in Virginia, according to Change Research’s latest poll of likely Democratic primary voters in that state. Biden’s support is strong among most demographic cohorts, but white men narrowly prefer Sanders over Biden and younger voters (ages 18–34) prefer Sanders by a large margin of 49 to 14.

Biden Leads the Horse Race

Joe Biden captures 41% of vote share among likely Democratic primary voters. Bernie Sanders is in a distant second place with 20%, followed by Pete Buttigieg (12%), Elizabeth Warren (10%), Kamala Harris (5%), Beto O’Rourke (4%), and Cory Booker (3%). All other candidates poll at 2% or less.

71% of voters say that they are “very confident” that their selection is the candidate they will ultimately vote for.

Virginia Horse Race

Biden has even more of a lead among black women (55%) and black men (66%) than among all voters. His weakest support is among white men, who narrowly prefer Sanders (28%) to Biden (27%).

Virginia Horse Race, Demographic Breakdown

Biden leads among voters 35 and older, and his support increases with the age of the voter cohort. However, 18–34 year olds’ support for Biden (14%) is dwarfed by their support for Sanders (49%).

Virginia Horse Race, Age Breakdown

Click here for full poll toplines.

Change Research surveyed 551 likely 2020 Democratic primary voters in Virginia from April 26–30, 2019. The survey was conducted online, using Change Research’s Bias Correct Engine. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, and 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ± 4.2%.

This is one of over 100 polls Change Research will be conducting this year as part of our 2020 Change polling subscription product. Most will be available to subscribers only. Please contact us for more information.