But Tannehill, a trade addition last offseason from the floundering Miami Dolphins, was never meant to be the starter, and actually had the final year of his contract restructured so he would hit free agency in 2020. Now, he is indeed a free agent; but he's also the Comeback Player of the Year and one of the most fascinating debates on player valuation this offseason. Both Tannehill and the Titans have expressed interest in inking a new deal, but is that the best choice for the team? And at what cost can they do it?

In one of the more shocking developments of an always topsy-turvy NFL, Tannehill wrested control of the Titans' starting job from a feeble Marcus Mariota, powered them into the AFC playoffs — with a little help from the Pittsburg Steelers losing to the New York Jets in Week 16, lest we forget — and then passed his way handed the ball off on his way to the AFC Championship Game.

That's what we'll investigate here.

What are the Titans' options?

Re-sign Tannehill

That's what we'll be looking into today.

Tag Tannehill

An option adjacent to re-signing Tannehill, but obviously a worst-case scenario. We'll suss this out more when we talk numbers for Tannehill.

Draft a quarterback

At No. 29 in the draft order — that's right, it wasn't a dream the Titans played in the AFC Championship — Tennessee is not in striking distance of a top quarterback. It's likely that four if not five QBs are off the board by the time the Titans approach their first-round selection, and with Jake Fromm likely the top option remaining, I'd imagine the Titans would prefer a known middle-tier passer like Tannehill over one who maybe could ascend to that level in the NFL.

Tennessee has drafted really well in recent years under Jon Robinson, but it doesn't have any extra capital in approaching years, so a significant trade-up is also out of the question. Tannehill simply played so well, he escorted the team out of striking distance for a rookie to replace him. That's how you fight for your job.

Sign a quarterback

The potential free-agent market for QBs is weirdly fun. While nobody is yet to hit the market, players like Jameis Winston — picked one selection before Mariota was in the 2014 draft — and Teddy Bridgewater represent affordable options that could offer higher ceilings than Tannehill, who is 5-plus years older than both. And they're just the ones likely to come out.

Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers and Dak Prescott could get to the open market if things get really wonky. Betting on a new administration in Carolina to cut Newton, or a 38-year-old Rivers to revitalize, or the Dallas Cowboys to completely bungle things with Prescott aren't winning strategies. Reasonably, you can expect the free-agent group to include Winston, Bridgewater, Rivers and a wild card.

Are any of these options better than Tannehill? That's the tough question to answer. It requires us to define just how good Tannehill is. With just a 14-game season under his belt with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and a Titans uniform on his chest, we're not exactly dealing with a lot of evidence to rest our hat on. That's really the rub.

How good is Tannehill … actually?

This past season, Tannehill set franchise records and led the league in two pretty key metrics for quarterbacks: QB rating (117.5) and yards per attempt (9.5). If you grabbed an alien in the month of November, taught him the basics of NFL football and asked him to tell you who the best quarterback in league history was, Tannehill would probably be one of his first three guesses. Without the context of his previous seasons, it seems like Tannehill is a near-elite passer.

Two things should shy us away from that alien projection, however, and the first is the context of his previous seasons. We simply cannot ignore it.

It's not a bad thing that Tannehill is better in a new situation than he was in Miami — that's good! It reaffirms the belief we hold that coaching can improve NFL talent and that players who can’t transcend scheme can be elevated by scheme. Smith fed Tannehill a steady diet of deep play-action passes behind a violent offensive line and a devastating running back in fellow free agent Derrick Henry. With Tannehill's arm strength and aggressiveness, the Titans found success. But during his Miami days, Tannehill wasn't offered the same opportunity to uncork the ball on play action. He played in Adam Gase's West Coast spacing system that tried to make him a quick-trigger facilitator, and that simply isn't where he is strongest.

But because scheme elevated Tannehill, he's probably worse than he seems. His range of outcomes lies somewhere between the Miami days — his best season ended with a 93.5 QBR and 7.7 yards per attempt — and the blaze of production he enjoyed last season in Tennessee.

It may be tempting to say, "But the scheme and surrounding talent are the same, shouldn't Tannehill stay at the levels of 2019?" Hopefully. However, regression always comes — both as players cool off from hot streaks, and opposing defenses get better at answering tough questions.

Which brings us to our second point: Tannehill won in unsustainable ways. As detailed by USA Today's Steven Ruiz, Tannehill was particularly successful in particularly volatile areas of quarterbacking namely deep accuracy, throwing under pressure and the aforementioned play-action game. At one point during the season, Tannehill had thrown the fewest catchable deep balls, yet every single one those passes had been caught by his target. That sort of success simply doesn't carry over time.

As Ruiz put it:

"Like Tannehill’s play under pressure or in the play-action passing game, this is not going to continue. And “this” is what the Titans would be paying for if they did give him a new contract. Occam’s Razor needs to be applied here. What’s more likely: That Tannehill turned into one of the league’s best quarterbacks overnight or the six-year sample of play is more representative of his true talent?

"The answer is pretty obvious."

So then ... what do we pay this guy?

Tannehill is going to be worse in 2020 than he was in 2019 — and that's not even a knock on Tannehill, it’s the inevitability of regression to the mean. The best seasons tend to fall towards the average in the next year, just as the worst seasons tend to rise toward the average. It's hard to stay this amazing forever, and why quarterbacks like Brady and Brees are so special. They're seemingly invulnerable to decay.

But even if Tannehill is worse in 2020, his Miami output, coupled with his recent explosion in Tennessee's system, places him at least even with the likely free agents in Winston, Bridgewater and Rivers. None represent a significant improvement over Tannehill, given their current stages of QB development; and of the unlikely free agents, Newton, Prescott, Brees or Brady would certainly be better than Tannehill. But that's a bridge we only cross if the opportunity arises. If everything holds steady, the Titans' best option is to re-sign Tannehill for 2020 and beyond.

But for how long. And for how much? If you again narrow your scope to the performance of the 2019 season, Tannehill deserves to beat the Jared Goff deal and Russell Wilson deals. He should be paid $35 million per year for the next five years.

But you, me, Tannehill, his agent and the Titans all know that he simply is not that player and isn't worth that money. We have enough evidence that Tannehill is, at best, a mid-tier starter. He was not the primary agent of the Titans’ offense throughout the playoffs and is not why the team got that far. Tannehill was better than Mariota, certainly, but he is not an elite quarterback.

The issue is that it's hard to find a middle tier of quarterback contracts. Everyone sets a new record when they get signed — e.g. Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and Matt Ryan. We have to drop all the way out of the tier of unquestioned starters to find contracts that make more sense for Tannehill's future:

Jacksonville Jaguars’ Nick Foles (31 years old): $88 million over four years ( $22 million APY )

$22 million APY Indianapolis Colts’ Jacoby Brissett (27 years old): $30 million over two years ( $15 million APY )

$15 million APY Washington Redskins’ Alex Smith (34 years old): $94 million over four years ( $23.5 million APY )

$23.5 million APY Brees (38 years old): $50 million over two years ($ 25 million APY )

With about $60 million in cap space, the Titans can afford to swallow a figure in the Smith/Foles bracket. The structure of Foles’ contract may appeal to Tennessee's side as well after Jacksonville front-loaded the dead cap of Foles' deal to ensure it could get out of the contract after two years.

But that's where Tannehill's camp will likely fight hard for long-term security. He is a tenuous starter with a rough injury history; and with the way good offensive coordinators move into head coaching jobs these days, it isn't guaranteed that Tannehill will enjoy Smith's careful hand across the next few years of his contract. Tannehill's APY very well could come in at $20 million across the course of a four-year deal — so long as the guaranteed money is increased and spread out evenly enough that Tannehill secured a roster spot for at least three, if not all four years of the deal.

I think Tannehill gets a deal around $80 million in total money, but with guaranteed money (roughly $55-60 million) spread out across four years to provide more long-term stability, he can establish himself as a consistent starter.

Is this the right call?

I don't love it, but probably. The other options are either riskier, inherently worse, or too costly from a long-term team-building perspective. The Titans are well-equipped on offense and defense to make consecutive playoff runs, so long as their quarterback play is not prohibitively poor (see: Mariota). Ideally, you wouldn't overpay for Tannehill by giving him more than $20 million per year, but that's just the cost of doing business in a pricey NFL QB market.