

South Carolina Presidential Primary Preference: South Carolina Likely Republican

Primary Voters Jan 19-20

2012 Gingrich 40% Paul 18% Romney 26% Santorum 13% Other 1% Undecided 2% Newt Gingrich leads the South Carolina Republican presidential primary with 40% and is followed by Mitt Romney with 26%, Ron Paul with 18%, and Rick Santorum with 13%. Gingrich has gained 7 percentage points since the survey conducted January 17-18 and Romney has lost 6 percentage points since that survey. Gingrich leads Romney 47% to 24% among self-identified Republicans, followed by Paul and Santorum with 14% each. Paul leads among independents and Democrats with 33%, followed by Romney with 31%, Gingrich with 18%, and Santorum with 10%. Gingrich leads among those likely primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party with 48%, followed by Romney with 19%, Santorum with 16%, and Paul with 14%. Gingrich leads with 33% among those saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 31%, and Paul with 22%. Gingrich leads Romney among men 38% to 25%, followed by Paul with 21%. Among women, Gingrich leads Romney 42% to 26%, followed by Paul with 16%, and Santorum with 13%. Gingrich leads Romney 43% to 24% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote. Comparison to Past Surveys: South Carolina Likely Republican

Primary Voters Apr

2011 Jul

2011 Oct

2011 Nov

2011 Jan 4-5

2012 Jan 11-12

2012 Jan 17-18

2012 Jan 19-20

2012 Bachmann 5% 13% 5% 3% ni ni ni ni Barbour 2% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Cain 1% 10% 26% 10% ni ni ni ni Daniels 1% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Gingrich 9% 3% 8% 33% 24% 25% 33% 40% Giuliani 4% 6% ni ni ni ni ni ni Huckabee 20% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Huntsman - - - 3% 2% 1% ni ni Johnson - * - - ni ni ni ni Karger - ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Palin 10% 16% ni ni ni ni ni ni Pataki - ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Rand Paul 2% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Ron Paul 1% 2% 7% 8% 9% 20% 19% 18% Pawlenty 2% - ni ni ni ni ni ni Perry ni 6% 15% 8% 2% 9% 4% ni Roemer - 2% - - ni ni ni ni Romney 18% 25% 25% 22% 31% 29% 32% 26% Santorum 1% 2% 1% 1% 24% 7% 9% 13% Trump 13% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Other/Undecided 11% 15% 13% 12% 8% 9% 3% 3% Preference by party: South Carolina Likely Republican

Primary Voters Republicans (76%) Independents (24%) Gingrich 47% 18% Paul 14% 33% Romney 24% 31% Santorum 14% 10% Other - 4% Undecided 1% 4% Preference by Tea Party support: South Carolina Likely Republican

Primary Voters Supporter (46%) Not/Undecided (54%) Gingrich 48% 33% Paul 14% 22% Romney 19% 31% Santorum 16% 11% Other - 2% Undecided 3% 1% Preference by Sex: South Carolina Likely Republican

Primary Voters Male (52%) Female (48%) Gingrich 38% 42% Paul 21% 16% Romney 25% 26% Santorum 13% 13% Other 1% 1% Undecided 2% 2% About this Survey - Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985. Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (458 Republicans, 137 independents, and 5 Democrats). An "*" in the tables indicates responses of less than 1/2 of 1 percent. Sample Dates: January 19-20, 2012 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. Question Wording: If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were being held today between (names rotated) Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote? Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? Do you consider yourself to be an evangelical or born-again Christian, or not? Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2012 Republican presidential primary?