First, the good news. The owners of a St. Paul home with an assessed market value of $145,000 will likely see its value rise to $151,000 next year.

That’s an indication the housing market is returning to pre-recession levels even in neighborhoods that have been slower to catch up, such as Frogtown and the North End.

But there is a dose of pain to go with that gain. Under St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman’s budget proposal for 2016, the city’s share of property taxes and fees would go up $37, according to the city’s budget office.

Changes to the city’s water rates, including a new base fee, would add another $12.

And other variables, such as neighborhood location, a proposed increase to the Ramsey County tax levy and changing trends within the state’s fiscal disparities program, could further increase or decrease the tax burden for many property owners.

The Ramsey County board has proposed a 2.8 percent levy increase, and the St. Paul Public School board will pin down whether it needs to increase its levy by September.

AREAS WITH HIGHEST INCREASES IN VALUE

When it comes to property values, “the increases and decreases are much more modest than what we saw last year,” said Chris Samuel, property tax manager for Ramsey County. “We certainly saw significant spikes last year as we recovered from the recession.”

Exceptions exist. With or without a hike to the tax levy, homeowners in the North End may experience some sticker shock when they open their tax statements. Their property values are poised to grow by 15 percent or more, but those double-digit increases will arrive hand-in-hand with higher tax bills.

“North End, Thomas Dale, downtown are three areas in St. Paul where we are seeing higher increases in market value,” Samuel said. “We certainly have seen different rates of recovery from the recession, and we’re still in that process.”

Last week Coleman unveiled a $545.8 million city budget proposal calling for the property tax levy to go up 1.9 percent, along with a series of fee increases, to keep up with inflation and maintain city services at a steady level.

The proposed $105.6 million levy would be $11 million higher than it was five years ago, an 11.6 percent increase over 2011. The overall budget would be $54 million larger than it was in 2011, which is also about 11 percent higher.

The mayor’s proposal is not set in stone.

The 2016 budget and tax levy will go to the St. Paul City Council, which has until December to seek changes.

TAX AND FEE INCREASES

If the tax levy and fee increases are adopted, St. Paul residents owning a median-value home can expect to pay about $50 more in city property taxes and fees next year, according to city and county projections.

After the levy increase, the owner of a median-value home — a property with an assessed market value of $145,000 in 2014 and $151,500 in 2016 — would pay about $537 for the city share of property taxes next year. That’s about $8 more than in 2015.

Fees associated with routine right-of-way street maintenance would go up 2.5 percent for that homeowner, from $198 to $203.

Sanitary sewer charges would go up from about $226 to $246. That includes a new base fee of $1 per month, or $12 annually, and a 3.5 percent rate increase on water volume, equivalent to roughly $8 per year.

Storm sewer charges for a median-value home are expected to rise 3.5 percent, from $85 to $88. A recycling fee would go up 1.5 percent from $53 to $54.

In total, the homeowner would pay $1,128 next year in city taxes and fees, before water charges, as opposed to $1,091 in 2015 — a difference of $37.

Water is billed separately from property taxes and city fees. St. Paul Regional Water Services’ base fee is expected to go up $1 per month, increasing annual water charges from $292 to $304 for this particular homeowner.

BIG VARIATION BY NEIGHBORHOOD

Samuel, the county’s property tax manager, addressed the city council’s budget committee last week and spelled out some of the major changes impacting tax trends for homeowners and owners of commercial properties alike.

As an example, Samuel used a St. Paul home valued next year at $151,500 — a 4.5 percent increase over 2015. That property owner paid $2,036 in taxes in 2015 and would pay $1 less in 2015 if there were no changes to the city, county or school district tax levies.

The state’s fiscal disparities program pools taxes from commercial and industrial properties and redistributes them throughout the seven-county metro, which usually takes some money from cities like Bloomington and provides some tax relief to cities like St. Paul, where industry is more limited.

While commercial and industrial values have experienced modest growth, Samuel said, a large part of the redistribution formula has to do with tax rates, which have actually fallen for commercial and industrial properties faster than values have gone up.

As a result, St. Paul will receive less money from the fiscal disparities program next year, so the homeowner would lose out on $16 in tax relief compared to 2015.

In addition, the state’s Homestead Exclusion Benefit — a type of deduction for homestead properties — decreases as a home’s property value increases, so the homeowner would lose out on another $9 in tax relief compared to 2015.

However, $26 in tax shifts — such as property taxes paid by residences that have gained value faster — will fully offset the loss in tax relief. Without any changes to the tax levies, the homeowner would pay $2,035 in taxes next year, or $1 less than in 2015.

For comparison’s sake, Samuel charted likely outcomes from hypothetical changes to the city levy. A 1 percent tax levy increase would cost the homeowner an extra $7 in his tax bill compared to 2015. A 3 percent increase to the tax levy would result in a $20 increase. A 5 percent increase would result in a $34 increase.

IMPACT TO VARY BY NEIGHBORHOOD

Samuel also predicted heavily varied impacts by neighborhood. Assuming no change to the tax levies, a median-value home in the Sunray/Battle Creek/Highwood area would pay $1,953 in taxes next year — or $68 less than in 2015 — a savings of 3.4 percent. Home values in that neighborhood are creeping up 1.7 percent.

Neighborhoods such as Summit Hill, Highland, Macalester-Groveland, Hamline-Midway and St. Anthony Park would also see varied savings if the city tax levy stayed flat. Owners of median value properties in the Como neighborhood would see the biggest percentage savings, 3.6 percent for a savings of $104.

In the North End, however, median home values are expected to shoot up more than 15 percent, from $90,600 to $104,400. Largely as a result, property taxes are expected to increase 16.8 percent, or $178, going from $1,059 to $1,237.

Downtown residences and homeowners in the Thomas-Dale, or Frogtown, neighborhood are in line for a 10 percent increase in their property taxes, which tracks fairly closely with the percent increase in their property values.

On West Seventh Street, residential property values are rising about 8 percent, and taxes would go up $80, or 4.5 percent, from $1,767 to $1,847 for a median-value property.

Samuel also looked at tax impacts on a commercial property with a median value of $372,150. Assuming its market value increased 3 percent in 2016 and the city tax levy stayed flat, that property owner would pay $13,828 next year, a savings of $4 over 2015.

A 1 percent increase to the tax levy would add $25 to the commercial property owner’s taxes. A 3 percent increase would boost taxes $76.

Frederick Melo can be reached at 651-228-2172. Follow him at twitter.com/FrederickMelo.

ST. PAUL BUDGET INFO

This year’s budget: $527.2 million

Proposed budget for 2016: $545.8 million

Percentage increase: 3.5 percent

Impact on homeowners: $50 for median-value home in St. Paul.

TAX MATH

For a median-value St. Paul home, the grand total for all city services is poised to go up $49 next year as a result of a proposed 1.9 percent increase in the city’s property tax levy and a series of fee increases. A home with a market value of $145,000 in 2015 is expected to be valued at $151,000 in 2016:

2015: $1,383

2016: $1,432

Difference: $49

Assumptions:

Property tax — 1.9% levy increase

Right of way maintenance — 2.5% increase

New sewer base fee — $1 per month

Sanitary/storm sewer — 3.5% increase

Recycling — 1.5% increase

Water base fee — $1 a month increase