China’s economic growth may fall to 5% or even below this value due to the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic. This, in turn, could prompt the Beijing authorities to introduce more stimulus measures, government economist Zhang Ming.

The fast-growing epidemic, which has so far killed more than 170 people and infected more than 7,700 in China, could shrink GDP growth by about 1 percentage point in the first quarter, Zhang Ming said in a statement.

“GDP growth in the first quarter maybe around 5%, but we can’t rule out it falling below 5%”, says Zhang Ming, who is an economist at the government think tank Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. will be in early February and will end by the end of March.

Zhang Ming is one of many government economists, and although the academy’s position often serves as a recommendation for Chinese politicians, his opinion may not be fully in line with that of the government. So far it has not taken any measures to support the situation. China’s economic growth slowed to close to a 30-year low of 6% in the last quarter of last year, with analysts expecting the epidemic to be further affected.

According to Zhang Ming, the impact of the contagion on China’s economy could be far greater than that of a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which also erupted in China and killed nearly 800 people worldwide in 2002 and 2003. the world’s largest economy now relies more on services and consumption, the economist has argued.