LABOR powerbroker Mark Arbib has resigned from Government, after Julia Gillard comfortably defeated the challenge of Kevin Rudd in a contested ballot for the Labor leadership.

7.56pm And that's a wrap, people. After a leadership ballot, a government resignation and definitely one of the most historic days Australian politics has ever seen, this is the news.com.au live blog team signing off. Until next time!

7.43pm Minister for Employment, Workplace Relations, Financial Services and Superannuation Bill Shorten appeared on the ABC's 7.30, using the word "overwhelmingly" a lot.

The message out of today is that the Labor Party is uniting behind Julia Gillard.

Mr Shorten dismissed the fact that almost a third of the party voted against the Prime Minister, saying that was a "misrepresentation of what happened today".

6.42pm The Business Council of Australia wants Labor to get back to work.

The body that represents the nation's top 100 CEOs believes the leadership issue has been a distraction for the Government for some time. BCA President Tony Shepherd said:

They have impacted on the Parliament, business and the broader community at a time when Australia must be focused on the challenges and opportunities we face as a nation.

5.53pm A "faceless", hairless man has just become a jobless man, writes Ant Sharwood over at The Punch.

In all seriousness, Arbib is to be applauded for today’s unexpected decision. Nothing, and I really do mean NOTHING, could send a more positive message to workaholics everywhere than a man willing to sacrifice high office for domestic harmony.

5.49pm Now, back to the business of who is going to replace Kevin Rudd as foreign minister.

Stephen Smith and Simon Crean are considered the frontrunners, and Tom Switzer of the Institute of Public Affairs said today that both were in with a chance.

I think that Stephen Smith ... would be more than adequate to fill that role.

Mr Smith was foreign minister in the Rudd Government, reluctantly giving up the portfolio when Ms Gillard decided to give it to Mr Rudd after the 2010 election.



An analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), Carl Ungerer, believes Mr Crean, a former Labor leader, is the most obvious choice as the Government's "senior statesman".

5.44pm Prime Minister Julia Gillard said Mark Arbib's resignation "will be received with a heavy heart by the members of our party".

Mark worked with me during the days of the global financial crisis and was passionate about making sure young people didn't bear the brunt of this economic turbulence.

Ms Gillard also praised Senator Arbib for his passion when it came to ending indigenous disadvantage including by using sport to encourage Aboriginal children to finish school and get a job.

The Prime Minister said the outgoing assistant treasurer's reforms in the area of homelessness "helped thousands of Australians find a safe roof over their heads".

5.27pm Senator Arbib's decision was a recognition that he was "uniquely placed" after the events of 2010 to take some of the blame for the past 18 months of instability, writes our National Political Editor Malcolm Farr.

5.11pm Labor Party infighting could see the Democrats make a comeback.

That’s the warning from the national president of the party that famously pledged to “Keep the Bastards Honest”.

Darren Churchill said today:

Labor's infighting has guaranteed that they cannot be re-elected in 2013, no matter who their leader is at that time … With the left-leaning Greens not an alternative for those voters, the Democrats are back in the picture. We anticipate a substantial increase in our vote as a consequence, and we will be working to again get the voice of reason back into the Parliament.



5.03pm Who will take Mark Arbib's place in the Senate? Some are suggesting it could be former New South Wales premier Kristina Keneally.

Senator Arbib was asked if he thought Warren Mundine, former ALP president, could take his senate spot, but he wasn't giving any tips away, saying that it was "a matter for the Labor party".

4.41pm Mark Arbib acknowledged his role as a Right-faction powerbroker.

You don't get involved in politics to spend your time in the back room.

Senator Arbib hoped Labor members would see his resignation as "a gesture to help unite and to heal".

I leave today without bitterness or anger and with hope for the party's future. I've had to make tough and unpopular decisions, but I have always been loyal to the Labor party, the party I love.

4.38pm Was Mark Arbib's decision made off the back of a mid-life crisis? The senator said despite what some might think, being a politician was a seven-day-a-week job.

"The time away from your kids, the time away from your spouse is incredibly hard," he said.

Many years ago he promised his wife he would reassess his own professional life when he turned 40. He reached that milestone last November.

When he was promoted to assistant treasurer in December, he shared the news with his family over dinner.

"My daughter said to me, 'Dad, is it going to mean more time away from home?'," he said.

"I told her it will, she started crying and said, 'Don't take the job Dad, don't take the job'.

"For me that says everything about the life of a politician, it says everything about the stress on family."

4.31pm The ABC's chief online political writer points out that Senator Arbib was on Gillard's side.

Just for context: Arbib is a GILLARD vote; this isn't a post-defeat dummy spit. — Annabel Crabb (@annabelcrabb) February 27, 2012

4.16pm Assistant Treasurer Mark Arbib has resigned from Government. He said that after today's ballot he told Prime Minister Julia Gillard he would step down as minister and senator.

It was a difficult decision but I hope it will play a part in helping the party to rebuild, mending some of the turmoil over last week.

4.07pm Mark Arbib has resigned at senator and minister, Sky News is reporting. More to come shortly...

3.50pm That's it from Chris and Rob, but stay with us as we continue to bring you the latest developments on news.com.au. Thanks for joining our live coverage on what was a very signifcant day in Australian politics.

As a parting gift, we'll leave you with this secret snap filed to news.com.au, which reflects the popular view as to how Tony Abbott will capitalise on Labor's re-spill drama.

The budgies? Lovely touch.

3.25pm Albo's back to fighting Tories, but will his relationship with Julia Gillard suffer?

Look at moi please, Anthony:







Anthony, Anthony... ANTHONY! Ahem. Back in your box:













3.11pm Malcolm Farr keeps filing the goods from Question Time:

The Opposition now has little chance of its suspension motion passing, thanks to the iron rule of Speaker Peter Slipper.

Mr Slipper just punted Nationals Leader Warren Truss for interjections. He's already sent out Opposition frontbenchers Peter Dutton and Andrew Robb, as well as Labor's Mike Kelly.

Losing three makes it harder for Tony Abbott to get the clear majority of the House he needs.

3.08pm A poll run by Brisbane Times reveals two-thirds of voters think today's leadership ballot will make no difference. They predict Labor will lose the next election.

Poll: Can federal Labor recover from the leadership battle to win the election? So far, 67% of 17,400 readers say no bit.ly/yymgeH — Brisbane Times (@brisbanetimes) February 27, 2012

More here.

3.00pm More from Mal Farr:

George Christensen, the National who received a note from Kevin Rudd earlier, asks a tough question of Julia Gillard. Are they related - the two events, that is? No evidence they are.

Question is about Prime Minister's promises and whether there are any she would not break. Refers to problem gambling and climate change.

Tony Abbott moves a motion demanding the Prime Minister explain "extraordinary allegations" made in Labor Party.

"Basically this Prime Minister has a trust problem," said Mr Abbott.

He said that after attacking Kevin Rudd the Prime Minister today said Mr Rudd had to be honoured.

"This Prime Minister has a truth problem," he told Parliament.

2.40pm Liberal National Party (LNP) leader Campbell Newman says the feud for the federal leadership has helped, rather than hindered, Queensland Labor.

2.35pm Talk about the kiss of death - the last person she kissed in this chamber was Kevin Rudd and look what happened to him. Gillard shares a congratulatory kiss with MP Justine Elliott.

Rudd takes his place in the back and makes a show of smiling for the cameras.

Cool as a cucumber - Gillard enters the chamber after trouncing Kevin Rudd in the leadership ballot.

2.29pm More live updates from Question time from National Political Editor Malcolm Farr.



Kevin Rudd just sent a note across the Chamber to Queensland National George Christensen, who looked at it and nodded.

Also from Malcolm Farr:



At one point Anthony Albanese sat next to Julia Gillard and they had a private conversation as Parliament continued.



They shared a joke and smiles.



On Saturday Mr Albanese telephoned the Prime Minister to say he would be voting against her, and to offer his resignation as Leader of the Government in the House of Representatives.



She refused to accept the resignation.

2.13pm From our national political editor Malcolm Farr:

Kevin Rudd sat next to Victorian back bencher Anthony Byrne, two rows back from the ministerial seats. He joked with colleagues and smiled a lot for a man who had been thrashed in a leadership vote.

2.10pm Some great analysis in The Monthly by journalist Annabel Crabb: Prime Minister Interrupted.

2.04pm Rather predictably, Tony Abbott kicked off Question Time by challenging the legitimacy of Julia Gillard's Prime Ministership. Julia Gillard hit back, pointing out Abbott only won his leadership challenge against Malcolm Turnbull by a single vote.

Gillard says:

"The leader of the Opposition is focussed on the Labor Party, I can assure you we're focussed on the nation's future."

1.59pm Anthony Albanese came out in support of Kevin Rudd during that emotional speech on Saturday. But now he's back to business.

Congratulations to Prime Minister Gillard. Question time with the #noalition at 2pm. Time to #fighttories — Anthony Albanese(@AlboMP) February 27, 2012

1.48pm Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has jumped at the opportunity to begin and early election pitch.

"Today the Australian people were looking for a new start for this country. The challenge for this Prime Minister isn't just to win numbers in a caucus ballot at a time of her own choosing, the challenge for this Prime Minister is to run a competent Government."

Abbott said Australia still had a Prime Minister "more focused on keeping her job, than protecting the jobs of the workers of this country".

"The country will not quickly forget Kevin Rudd's critique that this Government is run by faceless men. We're a great country being let down by a bad Government. Only the Coalition has real plans to give us a stronger economy for a stronger country."

He then said Australians no longer owned the Government and urged an election, so that the public could claim back a "Government run by faceless men".

1.45pm You won by how much? Julia Gillard was incredibly gracious in her victory speech this afternoon, calling for unity and praising Kevin Rudd's record as PM and Foreign Minister.

1.38pm Here's the latest analysis from The Punch, where Penbo asks: What now for Labor?

Labor might have destroyed Kevin Rudd - for all time you would think - but the party still faces electoral destruction. Most voters prefer Rudd over Gillard as prime minister. Many of them also prefer Rudd over Abbott as prime minister. Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.

1.28pm Ms Gillard also paid homage to the legacy of Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister and as a Foreign Minister.

"Firstly to Kevin Rudd this is a very tough day indeed. For the days that lie beyond, as a nation, as a Labor Party; we must honour his contribution as PM, as an amazing advocate of Australia’s interest on the world stage."

She went on to say she had not been a decisive leader in the past and that she would argue her case for her government’s policy agenda better in the future.

"I intend to be a stronger and more forceful advocate for what we are doing. I absolutely believe united we can win the next election."

1.20pm Julia Gillard has addressed the media after her victory over Kevin Rudd in the leadership ballot and declared the circumstances under which she came to be PM are no longer a matter for serious discussion.



“In all the things that have happened over the last few days, [I have had] to explain the circumstances of 2010 and how I came to be Prime Minister, Ms Gillard said this afternoon.



After admitting she had in the past failed to explain these events she concluded:

"I believe the discussions about 2010 should be over, our focus should be on 2012."

"I understand many Australians will have their doubts that Labor will be able to come together.



"We will move forward as a united team, I am absolutely confident that.



"We will unite and focus on that our Labor mission."



1.12pm Gillard says "this issue, the leadership question, is now determined" and says the Government will get back to, er, governing.

"You expect the Government to rightly focus on you. I can assure you that this political drama is over and now you are back at centre stage where you should properly be."

The PM makes a concession about the events of June 2010 when Rudd was deposed.

"In all the things that have happened in the last few days I have had the opportunity to explain the events of 2010 and how I became Prime Minister. I accept I should have done that at the time... but our focus is now on 2012."

Gillard thanked Rudd and called for the country to honour his prime ministership. She also pledged to unify to the Labor Party with a view to defeating Tony Abbott's Coalition at the next federal election.

"After this fight Labor can come together and pull together in a united way. We've come together before and we will do so now."

1.07pm Stay tuned: Julia Gillard is due to speak next. Then it's Question Time. That should be fun.

12.58pm Rudd added a long list of thank yous to staff and family and rattled of a list of achievements in the field of foreign affairs before finishing with this pitch to the Australian public:

"We are on the progressive side of Australian Politics, we've written the history of this nation, the other mob have just reacted to it."

Rudd said his new focus was to: "throw my every effort into securing Julia Gillard's election as Prime Minister at the next election.



12.56pm Rudd will remain on the backbench, accepting his loss with grace.

"I congratulate Julia on her strong win today the caucus has spoken and I accept the caucus verdict. To each of my voters who delivered nearly a third of the caucus I thank them for their support. For those who have been a little more willing in their public character analysis of me - I bear no grudges, I bear no malice."

Rudd also made a roundabout apology, without admitting fault, to anyone he might have offended during the lead-up to the spill.

"If I have done any wrong... to them apologise. It's time those wounds were healed."

Then in a pitch reminiscent of Robert Menzies Forgotten People, Rudd said:

"The unemployed, those who depend on our disability services scheme those who don’t go to a flash school ... our indigenous brothers and sisters."

He also promised to work with Julia Gillard after the result which he said he "accepts".

12.54pm Kevin Rudd. Happy little Vegemite?

12.44pm Rudd speaks. He accepts the outcome "without qualification and without rancour" and buries the hatchet with his detractors from within the Labor Party.

"I bear no grudges, I bear no-one any malice. Our purpose is to serve the nation, not ourselves. Our purpose is to serve the people of Australia, not ourselves."

Rudd congratulated the PM on her emphatic ballot victory, and pledged himself to the cause.

"To Julia I say: I accept fully the decision fo the caucus, and I dedicate myself fully to your re-election as Prime Minister."

12.29pm Rob Oakeshott: What's on your mind?

12.25pm Kevin Rudd will address the media at 12.30pm AEDT. Stand by people.

12.18pm Queensland Premier Anna Bligh congratulates the Prime Minister on her decisive victory. She expresses disappointment on the behalf of her friend Kevin Rudd, but has urged the federal Labor Party to unify.

"They have the political maturity and political will to recover."

Ms Bligh has now called for the focus to shift to the Queensland state election.

12.08pm Now for a look at Kevin Rudd's new career:

12.01pm Kevin Rudd has presented a resolute front, while Julia Gillard was obviously all smiles. Get the full story here.

11.43am Now that Gillard has swiftly dealt with the challenge from Rudd, Labor's got a much bigger problem on its hands.

The Daily Telegraph's Joe Hildebrand hits the nail on the head:

Given today's decisive result I'd like to put personal politics aside and offer sincere congratulations to Tony Abbott. #respill #auspol — Joe Hildebrand (@Joe_Hildebrand) February 27, 2012

11.38am Emphatic, decisive victory - one of the biggest ever in the history of leadership spills.

Rudd's 31 is the fewest votes by an ALP federal leadership contender since Whitlam defeated Hayden 32-30 in 1977 (in a much smaller caucus) — Stephen Spencer (@sspencer_63) February 27, 2012

11.36am Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd both left the vote, flanked by their respective supporters, both wearing broad smiles. Ms Gillard says she will address the media at a press conference soon. She strode with confidence and vindication.

11.28am After the vote caucus returning officer Chris Hayes addressed the media.



"Julia Gillard has won the ballot 71 votes to 31," Ms Hayes said to an expectant media pack.



"I have just declared Julia Gillard re-elected to the parliamentary party."



"There was no recount.



"The room was I think it's fair to say was fairly tense"



"The Prime Minister said ... what we need to do is position ourselves to win government next time."



11.18am The official statement is in: Gillard won the ballot 71-31. Gillard has officially been re-elected as the leader of the ALP. Both candidates addressed the party room - and there was no recount.

11.13am Sky news is now reporting that a recount is underway.

10.55am Ms Gillard won this morning's vote 71-31* (Editor's note: This result was revised from original reports the votes were 73-29), after Mr Rudd announced his intention to challenge on Friday.

Ms Gillard decided to hold an open contest for the leadership last week after Mr Rudd resigned as Foreign Minister, citing a lack of confidence in his tenure from the PM in a press conference from Washington D.C.

Mr Rudd rallied the numbers over the weekend and even won the influential vote of Anthony Albanese, but Ms Gillard has held her position by a large margin.

She was publicly backed a host of senior Cabinet members over the last week including Wayne Swan, Simon Crean, Penny Wong, Stephen Conroy and Stephen Smith.

Ms Gillard took over the Prime Ministership from Mr Rudd in June 2010 after he lost the support of the Labor caucus. Opposition Leader Tony Abbott will look to funnel the blood on the Labor floor into a big electoral campaign for the Coalition.



10.49am REPORTS: Julia Gillard has won the leadership ballot, 73 votes to 29. *UPDATE: This number was incorrect. The correct updated count is 71-31 to Gillard.

10.45am We're still waiting. That is all.

10.27am Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard arrived for the meeting flanked by their respective supporters. Which entourage was packing the best swagger? You decide.

Team Gillard



Team Rudd



10.17am The Labor Party votes, and we wait. Now we play the waiting game.

.......

.......

Ugh. Waiting game sucks. Let's play this:

10.15am Sportsbet has odds on where Kevin Rudd might go if he loses and leaves the country. Yep. You can bet on ANYTHING now.

10.05am Gillard has now also arrived with her own contingent of supporters including her deputy Wayne Swan.

10.01am Rudd arrives with a small band of a dozen supporters for the ballot.

9.54am Labor backbencher Ed Husic does not believe Ms Gillard will punish any of her ministers who are backing Mr Rudd.



Demoting Rudd supporters would just prolong the healing process, he told Sky News.

"We would be cutting our nose off to spite our face if we were to see those people cast aside."

9.46am Let's take a break from the serious stuff for a moment, and get to the real issue at hand: Twitter jokes about the spill.

Our favourite trend is the #respillsongs hashtag. Mainly because I (Chris) am cleaning up this category with some zingers (Spilling In The Name Of, Smells Like Crean Spirit, Rudd Will Tear Us Apart).

Setting aside my ego for a moment (but just for a moment, let's not get crazy) here's a few of the best.

This "@barilski Love is a ballot field #respillsongs" — Nasya Bahfen (@nasyabahfen) February 26, 2012

Am I ever gonna see your faceless men again? #respillsongs — Simon Thomsen (@SimonThomsen) February 26, 2012

Wake me up, before you Vo-Vo. #respillsongs — Latika Bourke(@latikambourke) February 26, 2012

Don't cry for me, Albanese... — Anthony Sharwood (@antsharwood) February 25, 2012

9.40am So here's some of what people really think this morning.

Love the lefties saying that ALP should be focusing on defeating Abbott. HELLO you're in Government not opposition! #respill #ALPcantgovern — Adrian John Mid (@adrian2302) February 26, 2012

Work is so much better with the live coverage ... of #respill Now this is drama bit.ly/xx98kg #OscarsSayWhat? — Shane Hickey (@EmbraceTheShane) February 26, 2012

Half expecting the Canberra press gallery to start tweeting which labels the Labour caucus are wearing. #oscars #respill — Rebecca Saffir (@rebeccaspeaking) February 26, 2012

9.34am Mark Kenny's Punch column on Albanese reveals the real strife within the Labor Party goes well beyond this morning's ballot.

The fact that the Government's most rational member has himself become so flummoxed is a mark of just how deep in the woods the Labor Party really is.

More on that, here.

9.23am Attorney-General Nicola Roxon calls Rudd camp dishonest on number claims.



"I think she [Gillard] will win convincingly," she told the Seven Network adding reports of 29 votes for Mr Rudd would be "a very, very big drop" from what his team had been saying.



Ms Roxon said the people in caucus like working with Ms Gillard.



"The prime minister has a very calm demeanour, she's very personable, she's worked really closely with people.



"At the end the caucus members are people and they will respect the people that they've worked well with."

9.16am Former Kevin Rudd staffer Richard Marles is voting for Julia Gillard, and explains why in his exclusive for the Herald Sun:

"When the heat is on, it is Julia who keeps calm. When the rest of us are tired and ratty, it is Julia whose humour remains intact. Julia is the smartest person in the room to whom we all instinctively turn."

He paid tribute to her careful stewardship of a minority government through a number of policy victories.

"Her negotiating skills are legendary. Julia is the first Prime Minister since Curtin to have been asked by the Australian people to lead a government of negotiation: a minority government. Politics is the art of the possible, and Julia makes possible what many others think to be impossible."

9.14am Joel Fitzgibbon's a-Twitter about new mum Michelle Rowland.

I can confirm that Michelle Rowland won't be with us today but has made it clear that if she would be voting for the PM if she were. — Joel Fitzgibbon (@fitzhunter) February 26, 2012

9.08am Kevin Rudd has again said although he'd made mistakes, Ms Gillard had also made mistakes that had nothing to do with him.



I'm a bit fed up with anything that goes wrong in a government being pinged on yours truly," he said.



"I think that's not taking responsibility for where things stand and so many of the decisions of the government have been nothing that I've had anything to do with."



He also defended his decision to resign as foreign minister while he was in Washington because the prime minister had effectively withdrawn her support for him.

8.55am Kelvin Thomson has finally revealed which camp he's in, and it's Gillard's.

8.43am Here's what the nation's broadsheets are saying about this morning's showdown between Rudd and Gillard.

On this morning's Sydney Morning Herald No matter who wins, labor is still a loser, writes Peter Hartcher.

Similar sentiments in Labor will win the battle but lose the war by Phillip Coorey.

Meanwhile at The Age Michelle Grattan asks whether Gillard will be able to repair the damage caused by this latest leadership contest.

On The Australian there is speculation that Rudd may well lose this vote built end up being drafted in as leader in the near future unless a victorious Gillard's numbers don't improve in the polls.

8.35am Good morning folks - it's Chris Paine and Robert Burton-Bradley here giving you all the updates on today's leadership challenge. Stay tuned for all the latest, and make sure you're with us at 10am (AEDT) this morning for a live stream of the result.

8.20am Kevin Rudd has spoken to Sunrise hosts Mel and Kochie, explaining "it was the right thing to challenge".

"I'm resting very calm in my skin - it's very tough when you're up against the combined factions of the Australian Labor Party. Sometimes you've got to take a stand, even if you think it's going to be really tough - it's the right thing to do. People out in the community have told me:We need a change, put your hand up. Have a go.'

Rudd then described "two Australias", and the difference between the life of "normal folk" and life in Canberra.

"(It's) toxic, negative and disconnected."

Kevin Rudd leaves his Canberra hotel for the ballot.

But despite reports of hatred within his own party, Rudd resolutely denied he would quit Labor if he loses.

"I've been a member of the Australian Labor Party for 30 years. I will stay with this movement and this party because I believe in its underpinning values. The task of leadership is to heal the wounds and help bring people together."

7.45am Dennis Atkins argues in the Courier Mail that the "third man theory" is starting to gain traction.

"It will be a third person and we think this is a set-up for those events."

7.42am Independent Rob Oakshott was very critical of Tony Abbott on Sky News.

He said Abbott only wants to "rip the show down".

He said tony Abbott had the opportunity to pass legislation, but was refusing to do so until an election was held.

7.40am Immigration Minister Chris Bowen said on Sky News that he was disappointed in the treatment of Kevin Rudd.

"The Labor Party tradition is to respect former leaders"

He also hopes to keep his position in cabinet if Kevin Rudd loses.

7.37am A Newspoll published hours before the ballot shows Mr Rudd is almost twice as popular with voters as Ms Gillard.

Mr Rudd is preferred by 53 per cent of the poll's respondents, compared to Ms Gillard on 28 per cent.

7.30am Senator Doug Cameron has warned that today's ballot may not end the leadership issue.

If Julia Gillard wins today and we end up in the same position as we are now, in terms of the polls, in several months time, then my view is the same people who installed Julia Gillard will be looking for a candidate to replace Julia Gillard," he said on ABC Radio.

If that happened Mr Rudd would be the only option, he said.

But Stephen Conroy said that was not going to happen.

"Since the introduction and vote on the carbon tax, Labor's polls and Julia Gillard's polls have continued to improve over the last four months,"

7.19am News Ltd columnist Joe Hildebrand has complained about the early start to the coverage on twitter.

"The worst thing about executions is that they always happen at dawn"

7.10am Communications Minister Stephen Conroy is on Sky News. He is taking issue with the statement that a third of caucus will vote for Kevin Rudd. He said it will be closer to 28-30 per cent.

He also dismissed the suggestion that the party was ignoring the will of the people by not following the polling and supporting Kevin Rudd.

Conroy said the polls also showed Malcolm Turnbull is more popular than Tony Abbott.

"The voters would prefer Kylie Minogue to Kevin Rudd as well."

7.08am Stephen Smith said he would remain Defence Minister for as long as Julia Gillard wants. He did not rule out becoming Foreign Minister again in the future.

7.03am Stephen Smith argues on Sky News that Tony Abbott won the leadership by one vote and the entire party managed to throw its support behind him. He said any party "worth its salt" would be able to do the same thing.

6.59am On the topic of overseas... Paul Toohey reports that the government's actions resemble that of a 1970s Latin American junta.

For the second time in two years, the ALP will conduct its own private ballot to decide who leads the country. In doing so, it contemptuously refuses to honour the people's voice by allowing leaders to run their terms. There is no "people power" in what is happening. The process castrates our political voice and demeans Australia abroad by showing that, despite our wealth, well-being and history of political non-violence, we are not satisfied with our good fortune.

6.57am Coverage of the leadership crisis has not been limited to Australia. The Telegraph in the UK is also reporting that julia Gillard is expected to defeat a challenge "against the man she ousted".

The ballot, which has been described as an act of mutual destruction by the ruling Labour party, has led to the airing of bitter tensions and long-held grievances by some of the government's most senior ministers.

6.48am Labor backbencher Nick Champion - one of Kevin Rudd's supporters - said on Sky News that Rudd was best placed to lead the Labor Party to victory at the next election.

He said the public has a "sense of unfinished business" with Kevin Rudd.

6.37am Warren Snowdon also said he felt the best people to decide on who should lead the country are the people in caucus, who have worked with both Rudd and Gillard as Prime Minister.

6.33am Veterans Affairs Minister Warren Snowdon is also on Sky News. He has dismissed the polls saying Kevin Rudd has a better chance of winning the election.

"Polls come and go"

6.32am One of Kevin Rudd's biggest backers, Senator Doug Cameron, admitted on Sky News that Julia Gillard will win today's vote - but it will be a "pyrrhic victory"

6.24am The Herald Sun reports Stephen Smith is expected to take the Foreign Affairs portfolio if Kevin Rudd loses the vote.

But as one MP said, if Julia Gillard doesn't turn things around soon, she may face another crisis:

"But if she has not made any improvement in the next six to eight months then her own backers will tap her on the shoulder"

6.11am And our very own Mal Farr has written about the true winner of today: Tony Abbott.

Kevin Rudd yesterday appeared to have accepted his fate. He has lost his beloved foreign affairs platform, he will become a back bencher of no fixed function, and he will be expected to behave himself until after the next election at least. Tony Abbott’s options are manifold but one he won’t take up is to ignore the gift he and the Opposition have been given.

6.08am Speaking of The Punch, they've put together a great form guide for all the punters.

Rudd: Strength: Strangers want to shake his hand Weakness: Friends want to punch him in the face Gillard: Strength: Running the country Weakness: Press conferences

6.02am On The Punch, Mark Kenny asks why Labor's favourite son, Anthony Albanese, is backing Kevin Rudd.

"In other words, if Ms Gillard was going to win anyway, why back a doomed leadership bid which has wreaked havoc on the party, and from which the task of rebuilding trust has been made steeper? "It will take all of Mr Albanese’s considerable wit to prosecute that case yet he has just handed the Opposition a huge stick with which to belt him."

5.37am The Advertiser writes that, no matter who wins today's contest, there will be new faces in Cabinet.

The loser's supporters will have to be exiled.

If Julia Gillard wins, five of her frontbench who publicly have backed Mr Rudd will face an anxious wait.

Two ministers, who will face the axe or might withdraw their heads from the guillotine before it is released, are Housing Minister Mr McClelland and Manufacturing Minister Kim Carr.

If Kevin Rudd wins, many minister's have already said they will step down. Others may have no choice.

Peter Garrett and Nicola Roxon said they will not serve under him. Wayne Swan, Simon Crean and Stephen Conroy have been so scathing that they will have no choice. Kate Ellis and Tony Burke have also been strongly supportive of Julia Gillard.

Others, such as Sports Minister Mark Arbib and South Australian senator Don Farrell, who played key roles in making Ms Gillard Prime Minister in 2010, also will expect to feel the wrath of a vengeful Mr Rudd

5.30am Ahead of the vote, here are the stats of the two candidates - head to head.

5.17am And according to the latest Newspoll, Julia Gillard's popularity has fallen to 26 per cent.

5.12am It seems the Governor-General doesn't feel like she needs to be in the country for the crisis.

Quentin Bryce left Australia yesterday morning for a five-day tour of New Zealand ahead of the leadership challenge.

This could cause difficulty if Mr Rudd wins, and needs to renegotiate with the Independents - or if Tony Abbott succeeds in passing a no-confidence motion.

A spokeswoman for the Governor-General sald:

"We fly back into Sydney on Thursday night". "We don't expect any issues. It was long-planned."

4.53am We're just hours away from the crucial vote. It seems clear, now, that Julia Gillard will emerge victorious, with only a third of the 103 MPs expected to vote for Kevin Rudd.

Labor's factional heavies were last night trying to make this a "show and tell" ballot, where MPs must show their vote card to a paired MP.

Rudd supporters believe this will spook MPs who will feel threatened when supporting a challenge.

2.08am Labor's ministerial line-up faces a shake-up, regardless of who wins today's leadership contest, writes Ken McGregor. Paul Toohey says the Labor farce demeans Australia abroad.

1.20am The third man theory is the liveliest in the modern Labor story. The leadership will be revisited but it won't include Kevin Rudd, writes Dennis Atkins.

12.55am Some Labor MPs warn that Julia Gillard might have only six to eight months to improve the Government's stocks, saying if she does not deliver she may face a "tap on the shoulder" from her own supporters.

12.52am Julia Gillard looks set to win today's leadership ballot comfortably, writes Simon Benson.

12.49am Labor must now try to rebuild the party's relationship with and connection to the rest of Australia, says The Daily Telegraph.

12.47am So how does this ballot work and what happens if it's a tie?

12am As Mr Rudd challenges Julia Gillard in a few hours in a Labor parliamentary ballot to see who will be prime minister, he holds a healthy 53 per cent to 28 per cent as preferred PM over her in a poll taken over the weekend.

11pm A tired-looking Kevin Rudd arrived back in Canberra, again predicting a tough task to unseat Julia Gillard in tomorrow's Labor spill for the prime ministership.

"I know I'm up against it in terms of the combined horsepower of the factions of the ALP. I knew that from the beginning."

Mr Rudd also said his chances of campaigning for support was made more difficult because Prime Minister Gillard had called the spill while he was in the air travelling back from the US.

Click here to follow the crisis through day four (Sunday, February 26, 2012)