Second in a series.

In conducting my completely thorough research for this article, Turkish guard Furkan Korkmaz rose on my board to previously unimaginable heights (more on that later). Before his meteoric rise up my board, days ago he placed 7th on my recent draft board, and 11th on DraftExpress's latest Top 100 Prospects rankings (as of Dec. 9th).

Korkmaz turned just 18 in July -- one of the several youngest players in the draft. This means he played the entire 2014-15 season as a pro at just 17 years old (544 minutes in 45 games, 12 per game)... and was very productive, all things considered! I am unable to stress how significant this is. He went on to have a remarkable summer at FIBA, and is well on his way to a much improved 18-year old pro season.

Furkan's tools are excellent. He stands a legit 6'8" and his quickness is breathtaking. He's an explosive jumper but not one in the class of elite, e.g. Wiggins, LaVine, Hezonja. He's not a super-sprinter because his strides aren't very long, but he's very good here still because of his quickness and explosiveness. He has a very skinny frame, but that type of thing doesn't concern me personally. Every 18-year old eventual NBA player has put on a considerable amount of weight. It didn't concern me with Noel, with Porzingis, doesn't concern me with Ingram, with Qi, et al.

Without further ado, let's get into those wondrous skills...

Shooting

Korkmaz is the best shooter in the draft. Off both the dribble and the catch, from every spot behind the arc and from mid-range, he's able to get off his incredibly quick and incredibly deadly shot. His trigger finger is non-hesitant (and it's totally warranted with his success rate from downtown), yet fairly intelligent. He knows what shots are better than others. He absolutely knows what he can get off (and what he should attempt), and what he can't (or shouldn't).

Simply put, players who can get a high-percentage 3-point shot off anytime they want have had success in this modern league. The best and second-best players in the league right now (Curry, Steph; Durant, Kevin) are also the two best, most unconscious shooters. Needless to say, the offensive upside of an 18-year old like Korkmaz with these traits and skills is truly unreal.

Below will simply be a barrage of various kinds of shots by Korkmaz, in all different settings -- playing for Anadolu Efes in Euroleague and TBL play, for Turkey in FIBA U18 Euro-A Champions play, and for Turkey in FIBA U19 World Champions.

Above, Furkan drives inside, never quits with the shot clock ticking down, gets back to the 3-point line wide-open and calls for the ball, and gets a beautiful catch-and-shoot 3.

Above, Furkan shows off the quickness of his release. Calls for the ball, receives the pass in his pocket, and gets rid of it before the defender ever has a chance.

Above, Furkan is dribbling with the shot clock ticking down, gets barely a second of daylight with a dribble move and lets it fly. Money.

(Apologies for the cut of the other clip. Mistake on my part.) Above, Furkan is running off the ball with a teammate inbounding it, and he gets just a half-second of space from cutting around a teammate. Lets it go, money.

Above, he gets an off-ball screen, sprints into the catch, gets his feet set and gets the ball off before the switching defender realizes what's happening.

Above, Furkan, in an amazing display of testicular fortitude, catches a non-pocket pass in the corner with 1.7 seconds on the shot-clock and two defenders in his area, one contesting his immediate shot... he proceeds to pump fake, dribble to his left, taking his time all the way, and get his shot off with about 0.2 seconds to spare. Of course, money. Such a fluid motion, his shot is.

Above, Furkan makes a dribble move to get his defender going one way, and then runs him into his screening teammate (who definitely moved some but shhh). He goes on to take a sizeup dribble, in amazement of the space he has, and takes a small step back to get his feet set -- money.

Above, my goodness. Furkan plays coy after inbounding it, thinking about how he can get to that wide open space of arc with some separation from his defender. Well, he does just that, gets his feet set in an instant, and -- money.

Above, Furkan catches a cross-court hot potato from his teammate with 3 seconds left on the clock, with a man in his face. Well, Furkan being Furkan, that becomes, as ever, money.

Above, at 17 years old, playing professionally, Furkan ... was God.

Last season, for Efes, Korkmaz shot 42% from 3 on just 78 attempts -- a very good 5.8 attempts per 40, but still, sure, a small sample in any case.

Over the summer, in U18's, he shot an unreal volume of 3's (9.6 attempts per 40), and shot miserably -- 22%. Then, in U19's, he picked it back up, lowering it to 6.8 3PAs/40 and shooting 45% from deep.

So far this season (224 minutes), Furkan's shooting 46% on 6.8 3PAs/40.

Over past seasons and summer events, at 15 and 16 years old, in all roughly similar sample sizes minutes-wise, he has shot 29% on 8 3PAs/40, 70% on 5.2 3PAs/40, and 41% on 13.3 3PAs/40.

On the stat sheet, we only have what he does in his playing time. For such a young player, there's not much of a sample at all (which is why I dared to include his age 15/16 stats) ... but, for a thing such as shooting, we have 1) indicators such as free-throw shooting, where he's been very good for his age overall, and 2) the ability to analyze his shot, its form--which is beyond excellent.

Handling/Passing/Driving/Cutting



Reading about and watching his shooting above, while at the same time not associating him as a top prospect in your mind, you probably assume that the rest of Korkmaz's profile is horrid. Welp, you're wrong.

Furkan's handle is tight; he has quite a few dribble moves and some natural intelligence in how to do anything he wants. Among common weaknesses of pre-NBA combo guards is being too confident in one's handle and being turnover prone because of it -- that is not the case with Furkan.

As for his passing, Korkmaz at times shows the instincts of a point guard in this area, but he clearly doesn't have the true consistency in every area to be an NBA point guard. He did play the starting point guard role for Turkey in FIBA U18's this summer -- so he has done it before, and recently, even. But this is mostly just reinforcement that he's a plus-handling and plus-passing 2-guard in the NBA, rather than a hope for him as a 1. In my opinion, at the very least.

As an on-ball driver, relating back to his handle and dribble moves, and his quickness, Furkan is very good. In finishing at the hoop, he is easily able to play above it, opting for a dunk much of the time, but he is equally adept at laying it in in a variety of ways.As an off-ball player, as seen already in many of the above gifs, he is also excellent. Excellent cutter, excellent at creating separation, and excellent at executing wherever he gets the ball.

Without further ado, the gifs:

Above, Korkmaz does a succession of dribble moves -- hesitation to a crossover, into a behind-the-back dribble, into a head-fake left with another right crossover, into a hopstep -- which ends in awesome display of body control, a quick and slight fadeaway directly off of the forward hopstep, creating just enough space to get a good shot off with the shot clock ticking down.

Above, the quick camera pan takes away a bit of the awesomeness of the pass, but a quick glance won't catch it either anyways. Korkmaz recovered the bobbled pass, shifted into dribble-mode, and then took one glance ahead and fired a perfectly on-target pass across the court into a streaking teammate's hands.

Above, Korkmaz fakes left with a small sizeup dribble, and with the help of a teammate setting a screen for him. Bursts right, and, defensive lapse inside or not, no one was stopping him from eventually converting at the hoop there.

Above, Furkan is extremely active off-ball, getting separation (but judging not enough to go behind the arc and attempt a shot), performs a great pump-fake and then drives inside, drawing a big defender off of his man--he then feeds the big man for a dunk, easy peasy.

Above, Furkan beats a weak defender and meets two more defenders in the paint. Diagnoses the open man in the corner, textbook drive-and-kick 3-ball.

Above, Furkan spins out of a defender's steal attempt and finishes around a defender with his hands up with a fingerroll from the left side of the hoop.

Above, Furkan quickly diagnoses the double team about to ensue in the post as well as a slacking defender that's responsible for both him and another teammate beyond the arc, and he strikes with a quick cut and a lefty finish.

Above, Furkan gets a little cutesy with his dribble in transition, letting his streaking teammate get ahead of him, before delivering a quick yet picturesque flick-of-the-wrist alley-oop pass.

Above, Furkan is sitting in a triple threat position, waiting for his big's screen, before getting his defender going one way so he can burst the other direction and blow by him. He then hits his just-beginning-to-cut teammate with a slick backdoor pass for an easy finish.

As for the numbers, on the current season Furkan sits at a very very good ratio of 2.7 assists to 1.1 turnovers per 40 minutes. He also sports a very good 57% clip on everything inside the arc. Last year, his free-throws attempted to 2-pointers attempted ratio (in order to judge how often he got to the free-throw line) was an awesome 49 to 56, but this year it's only at 8 to 23 so far.

Last season, once again, as a 17-year old (I'll stop bringing it up when you get it lodged into your head), Korkmaz sported a 3.2 to 1.9 assist to turnover ratio per 40, though his 2P% last year was only a still-fair 46%. And per-40, he was at 14 points even last year (on 61% TS!), 15 points this year (on 66% TS!!!).

In FIBA U18's over the summer (where he played a lot of point guard), Furkan had a smooth 3.9 to 2.7 assist to turnover ratio. In U19's, though, he had a decidedly less easy-on-the-eyes 3.1 to 4.7 assist to turnover ratio.

And finally, in U18's he produced 21 points per 40 on a 2P% of 46%; and in U19's, he upped it to 23 points on 51% from 2!

Defending

If you could simply skip this part and go straight to the conclusion, your world would be a happier place. Fair warning.

SO he's 18--played all of last year at the ripe age of 17, turned 18 in July. Of course he's not going to be a master here. But he's been bad to this point -- not without some reasons for cautious optimism, but bad nonetheless.

He's only 190 lbs or so at his 6'8" height, and when asked what he needs to improve to be a better player, in both interviews I listened to, he without-fail talks about his skinny body and how he needs to bulk up. He's able to be abused in the post, and his positioning on D, as well as his awareness... it all needs a major uptick in consistency.

He knows he's not good on defense right now and he speaks of going to great lengths to improve himself here. The reasons for cautious optimism I mentioned above -- last season for Efes, he averaged 1.7 steals per 40. Not great, but not nothing. More importantly, over the summer, in both events he averaged 3.5 steals per 40. These are samples of nearly 300 and nearly 200 minutes, so they're not nothing compared to either season's minutes. Oh and he's only gotten 1 steal in 224 minutes this season.

Sadly, without more hesitation - the gifs:

Above, Furkan... it gets worse.

Above, Furkan gets crossed hard and blown by -- with no help from his big man teammate, sure, but he is the reason his man got to the rim in the first place.

Above, while multiple teammates of Furkan could've helped, absolutely, but he was in horrible positioning, being posted up to the outside by his man. Goes for the steal instead of the recovery (not the worst thing in the world, but looks like it) and his man gets an easy bucket.

Above, Furkan anticipates the drive and then proceeds to slide very poorly, lose positioning in front of his man, and give up an easy score at the rim. Sigh.

Above, Furkan lets his man get right past him after a crappy hesitation move because he's either 1) scared to put his body on the line or 2) unable to put his body on the line. I think it's probably both, but closer to the latter (and 1 is a result of 2, obviously).

Above, Furkan gets bodied in the post and gives up an easy basket. Barely even any effort from the opposing bigger-bodied wing player.

He was 17 here. He's 18 now. He plays debatably the lowest-impact position on defense, as the 2-guard (or lesser wing). He doesn't appear a bad rebounder by any means, but he's not great there either (crappyish in season samples and very good in FIBA samples). There's absolutely reason--even beyond his incredibly young age--for some optimism with his D. And, of course, you have also only seen (above) the absolute worst I could find.

Conclusion

2) Furkan Korkmaz

Despite his defensive struggles, the more I learn of his illustriousness, the more I salivate. If above wasn't clear, I would have him #2 in the draft right now. And this is coming from someone who absolutely loves Brandon Ingram, Dragan Bender (the other typical and rightful candidates), Zhou Qi and Henry Ellenson! I absolutely love all of the (my) #2-6 tier--think they make up the second part of an incredibly formidable top-of-the-draft.

He can't match Ingram, Bender and Qi's jaw-dropping length, or Bender and Ellenson's pure feel, or Qi and Ingram's all-NBA defensive potential. But none of them can match his ability to get a high-% 3-pointer off, or his potential to leverage that skill, on top of the rest of his baseline, into one of the most dominant offensive games in the NBA.

It's entirely too easy to say, but the best player in the world was also a ridiculously good shooting prospect, presenting skinniness concerns, a diverse but not-thoroughly-developed rest of his offensive game, and bad defensive worries.

Korkmaz's production as a European pro at his age really can't be overlooked or overstated. It's just a mega outlier. Saric, Mirotic, Pekovic, Batum, Dragic, Gortat, Parker, either Gasol brother, Gobert... no one really comes close at 18, or they presumably weren't doing enough at their level to get the high-level playing time to show it. Actually, Jonas Valanciunas produced similarly excellently at 18 (even better, actually). And he turned out a top-5 pick a few months later even though the Raps had to wait a year -- and we know the Spurs had JV in their top-3 that year, would have made the George Hill-for-Kawhi trade for him in another version of reality. (In another universe, Jonas is 100% of a two-way superstar already. Sad.)

He's just so astonishingly good at the most efficient form of scoring the basketball already. He has very good skills backing it up, too -- handle is excellent for a 2, while his passing, court vision and decision-making is all fringe NBA point guard-prospect-ish.

And that about wraps it up -- my magnum opus on the greatness (and the pitfalls) of Furkan Korkmaz.

Discuss below.