Caps are the worst team to ever exist and they are going nowhere this postseason as usual. Or that’s what you would guess once hearing the loud grumbling of Caps fans after the Caps dropped their 4th straight loss last night in Anaheim. The funny thing is if you went to every team’s fan base and said, “Your team just lost 4 straight” their reaction would probably be, “That sucks, but it happens.” Issue with Caps fans is we have been incredibly spoiled over these last 3 years since Trotz has taken over; Caps haven’t lost 4 games straight in nearly two and half years (November of 2014)! That’s amazing and the fact that it has happened means nothing for the Caps future. Teams lose, sometimes consecutively, it’s not fun but it happens. Move on.



But still, Caps fans are concerned that the team that has been so dominant all season is just going to disappear before the playoffs because of the poor record since their week off. Let’s take a closer look at that record and dive into the numbers.

The Caps are 5-6-1 since the break with 4 of those regulation losses coming in the last 4 games. When the Caps have at least a days rest they are 5-3-0 and those 3 losses to who and why are very important. They lost to DAL, SJS, and LA in LA. News alert: Caps always lose to those teams. That certainly isn’t an excuse, but seriously, in the regular season we are terrible against those teams.

-Against DAL since 2000: 4-17 which includes a 10+ year stretch of losing at home to them.

-Against SJS since 2000: 3-22… my gosh.

-Against LA in LA since 2000: 3-9 and 0-6 in the last 7 years.

So yeah, maybe it isn’t the Caps are playing poor but that curses are just doing their thing. Caps dominated DAL (44-22 in shots), outplayed LA (2 inner posts and 2 open net misses), and lost the special teams battle (3 PP goals against) to a SJS team that has a poor PP unit. Caps fans shouldn’t be looking at these 4 losses (including ANA) and losing hope. We sees those teams twice a year and more than likely won’t see any in the playoffs.

And the 3 other losses the Caps have suffered since the break are the back end of back to backs against playoffs teams: NYR, NSH, and ANA. All 3 of those games were played less than 24 hours before their last game and all with travel and were away games. So Caps played rested, playoff caliber teams while very, very tired and away, so I wouldn’t look too much into those games.

But back to the Caps record in games in which there is some rest (not including after the 3 breaks). From the beginning of the season to now they have an outrageous record of 39-10-3 and that includes the recent curse stretch. That means, with rest, Caps win 3 out of 4 games. And if you look even closer at games with just 1 days rest before them, their record is a mind boggling 28-4-2. Why is this important? Because the playoffs very rarely have back to back games and most are played with 1 days break between games. With rest and more importantly just 1 days rest, the Caps hit a sweet spot and play their best hockey then and are purely dominant.

The good news is the next 7 games all have rest in between them with only 3 games without rest after that, but in those 3 games 2 are home and only 1 is against a playoff team. And of the last 14 games of the season 7 are with only 1 days rest. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if Caps get back into their usual winning groove with this proper schedule and roll into the playoffs playing great hockey as they usually do. Though it won’t be easy as the Caps still have to play 9 playoff teams with TBL and FLA who aren’t playoff teams but still very dangerous.

via Japers’ Rink

You can also count the Caps as quite unlucky since the their required break. Up until the break they had a shooting percentage in all situations at 11.17%, that’s good for 2nd in the league. But since then they are shooting a measly 7.55% good for 22nd in the league. Same goes for their shooting percentage at 5v5: they went from 10.04% (1st) to 7.58% (15th).The Caps PDO was insanely high before the break at 104 so it was bound to come down, but what you have been seeing from the Caps recently isn’t where they should be. Basically they might not be as good as they were before the break but they also aren’t nearly as bad as what they have played recently.

Now, this doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns as all teams have. Caps continue to take boneheaded offensive zone penalties that kill their momentum; they also have yet to put together proper line combinations after their usual ones went stale; their special teams have been slowly declining; and Ovechkin can’t seem to buy a goal. But there are 14 games left in the season so with some better luck and a somewhat more ordinary schedule the Caps should be able to get back on track and dominant once again.