Welcome to The Hill’s Morning Report. Happy Tuesday! Our newsletter gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver are the up-early co-creators. Find us @asimendinger and @alweaver22 on Twitter and CLICK HERE to subscribe!







In the course of a week, President Trump Donald John TrumpFederal prosecutor speaks out, says Barr 'has brought shame' on Justice Dept. Former Pence aide: White House staffers discussed Trump refusing to leave office Progressive group buys domain name of Trump's No. 1 Supreme Court pick MORE’s acquiescence to Turkey as it invaded Syria with the intention of annihilating U.S.-allied Kurds produced a cascade of disastrous results, placed U.S. forces and 50 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons at a Turkish air base at risk, and strengthened Russia, Iran, Syria and the Islamic State.

The president, careening through explanations and fact-challenged assertions, responded on Monday to alarm from Republican lawmakers, foreign policy advisers and NATO allies by imposing economic sanctions on Turkey and on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and halting a $100 billion trade deal with the NATO ally by executive order.

The New York Times: Trump followed his gut on Syria. Calamity came fast.

The Washington Post: Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad retake northeastern territory long held by U.S. allies as Erdoğan warns of a wider offensive.

The New York Times: The Syrian War: Top developments.

Sen. Lindsey Graham Lindsey Olin GrahamLincoln Project mocks Lindsey Graham's fundraising lag with Sarah McLachlan-themed video The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Republicans lawmakers rebuke Trump on election Trump dumbfounds GOP with latest unforced error MORE (R-S.C.) — a Trump supporter who had bluntly warned the president he would regret moving U.S. troops out of northeastern Syria without trying to protect the ISIS-fighting Kurds — is taking the lead in the Senate on sanctions legislation he said Speaker Nancy Pelosi Nancy PelosiDemocratic senator to party: 'A little message discipline wouldn't kill us' Overnight Health Care: New wave of COVID-19 cases builds in US | Florida to lift all coronavirus restrictions on restaurants, bars | Trump stirs questions with 0 drug coupon plan Overnight Defense: Appeals court revives House lawsuit against military funding for border wall | Dems push for limits on transferring military gear to police | Lawmakers ask for IG probe into Pentagon's use of COVID-19 funds MORE (D-Calif.) also wants to enact in the House as a forceful rebuke to Turkey.

“As we find ourselves in a situation where the president gave a green light to the Turks to bomb and effectively unleashed ISIS, we must have a stronger sanctions package than what the White House is suggesting,” Pelosi said as the House returned on Monday from a two-week recess.

The Hill: Fury grows over Trump’s decision.

Vice President Pence told reporters outside the White House that Trump “pressed [Erdoğan] very strongly” in a phone call Monday to broker a ceasefire with Kurdish forces in Syria immediately.

Pence said he’ll soon lead a delegation to Turkey to work toward a halt in violence between Ankara and the Kurds, joined by White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien. The new U.S. sanctions on Turkey will remain or “worsen” until the government “embraces an immediate ceasefire, stops the violence and agrees to negotiate a long-term settlement of the issues along the border,” he added (The Hill).







LEADING THE DAY





POLITICS: 2020 Democratic candidates will take part in the fourth primary debate tonight as the field continues to take shape and focus on the party heavyweights who have dominated the campaign so far.

As Niall Stanage writes, unless someone on-stage tonight can deliver a knockout performance that allows them to make the jump into the top tier, the primary contest is shaping up to be a two-horse race as Sen. Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth WarrenOvernight Defense: Appeals court revives House lawsuit against military funding for border wall | Dems push for limits on transferring military gear to police | Lawmakers ask for IG probe into Pentagon's use of COVID-19 funds On The Money: Half of states deplete funds for Trump's 0 unemployment expansion | EU appealing ruling in Apple tax case | House Democrats include more aid for airlines in coronavirus package Warren, Khanna request IG investigation into Pentagon's use of coronavirus funds MORE (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden Joe BidenFormer Pence aide: White House staffers discussed Trump refusing to leave office Progressive group buys domain name of Trump's No. 1 Supreme Court pick Bloomberg rolls out M ad buy to boost Biden in Florida MORE continue to separate themselves from the rest of the field.

Until recently, Sen. Bernie Sanders Bernie SandersSirota reacts to report of harassment, doxing by Harris supporters Republicans not immune to the malady that hobbled Democrats The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Republicans lawmakers rebuke Trump on election MORE (I-Vt.) was the third top-tier candidate, but while polling and fundraising put him in the same ballpark as Warren and Biden, he has his own challenges to deal with two weeks after suffering a heart attack and subsequently staying off the campaign trail.

Meanwhile, outside of Sen. Kamala Harris Kamala HarrisTexas Democratic official urges Biden to visit state: 'I thought he had his own plane' The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden on Trump: 'He'll leave' l GOP laywers brush off Trump's election remarks l Obama's endorsements A game theorist's advice to President Trump on filling the Supreme Court seat MORE’s (D-Calif.) brief flirtation with the top-tier after the first Democratic debate, no one else has proved able to make a move, leaving Biden and Warren to pace the field and speculate how other candidates expect to make their mark in the debate. One option is attacking Biden over the ongoing Ukraine saga — something the former VP has warned the field against doing — but the move could be too risky.

“Is anyone going to attack Biden on Ukraine? If they do, then by definition they are basically taking Trump’s side,” said Democratic pollster Paul Maslin.

The New York Times: Can Biden deliver the debate performance he needs?

Gerald F. Seib: Biden vs. Warren: A difference of philosophy, not just policy.

The New York Times: Ohio was set to purge 235,000 Voters. It was wrong about 20 percent.

Another question, as Julia Manchester notes in her preview of tonight’s debate: Will anyone will go after Warren as she continues her climb in the primary field, with some polls recently showing that she has eclipsed Biden?

In recent weeks, the most prominent 2020 primary foe to do so has been Sanders. Most recently, he derided her as a “capitalist,” arguing further that he is “the only candidate” who’s going to push back against “the ruling class of this country.” Other candidates could, but none have showed a willingness to take an overt shot at the current queen of the field.

Another major question heading into tonight is the role the ongoing impeachment inquiry could have on the primary, especially in the coming months as Democrats go further down that road. As Amie Parnes reports, some Democrats are worried about what it could mean for the primary contest and that it could serve as a shadow looming over the campaign.

“It’s a really bad move,” said one Democratic strategist. “It’s going to loom large over the primary season. And the candidates are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they miss the impeachment proceedings, it won’t look good either.”

One thing to watch ahead of the debate is an interview ABC News is releasing with Hunter Biden. The conversation is expected to air on “Good Morning America” today as the Bidens continue to face headwinds and attacks from the right on the Ukraine issue.

On top of the debate, Tuesday also marks a major deadline for the 2020 field as they must file their third-quarter fundraising reports with the Federal Election Commission. While most of the 2020 candidates have revealed their fundraising totals, some have not, and most of those who have not are holding back some key numbers, including cash on hand.

The Associated Press: Biden, Warren, Sanders face scrutiny at Democratic debate.

CNBC: Michael Bloomberg Michael BloombergBloomberg rolls out M ad buy to boost Biden in Florida Democratic groups using Bloomberg money to launch M in Spanish language ads in Florida Bloomberg pays fines for 32,000 felons in Florida so they can vote MORE keeps talking to allies about running for president as Biden struggles against Warren.

***

CONGRESS & IMPEACHMENT: House investigators deposed Fiona Hill, the president’s former top Russia aide, on Capitol Hill on Monday as lawmakers move forward with an impeachment push and look to uncover information about Rudy Giuliani Rudy GiulianiThe Hill's Campaign Report: GOP set to ask SCOTUS to limit mail-in voting CIA found Putin 'probably directing' campaign against Biden: report Democrats fear Russia interference could spoil bid to retake Senate MORE’s work with Ukrainian officials (The Hill).

According to The Wall Street Journal, Hill told investigators that she, along with other White House officials, grew alarmed by the administration’s prodding of the Ukrainians to open certain investigations to the point where they brought their concerns to a White House lawyer. After Hill told John Bolton John BoltonJudge appears skeptical of Bolton's defense of publishing book without White House approval Maximum pressure is keeping US troops in Iraq and Syria Woodward book trails Bolton, Mary Trump in first-week sales MORE, the former national security adviser, of what Giuliani was doing, Bolton instructed her to talk to the lawyer (The New York Times).

“I am not part of whatever drug deal Rudy and [White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney Mick MulvaneyOn The Money: House panel pulls Powell into partisan battles | New York considers hiking taxes on the rich | Treasury: Trump's payroll tax deferral won't hurt Social Security Blockchain trade group names Mick Mulvaney to board Mick Mulvaney to start hedge fund MORE] are cooking up,” Bolton said, according to Hill’s testimony.

A former special assistant to the president, Hill was expected to testify that Gordon Sondland and Giuliani went around the National Security Council and official White House protocol to speak directly with the president about Ukraine, which NBC News reported prior to her appearance (The Hill).

Additionally, Hill was expected to testify about the objections by her and other administration officials to the president’s removal of Marie Yovanovitch, the former ambassador to Ukraine, back in May (The New York Times).

Reuters: Exclusive: Trump lawyer Giuliani says he was paid $500,000 to consult on indicted associate's firm, Fraud Guarantee, based in Boca Raton, Fla.

The Hill: Trump's GOP impeachment firewall holds strong.

The Washington Post: House Democrats express greater confidence about impeachment showdown with Trump.

While Hill testified inside, Rep. Matt Gaetz Matthew (Matt) GaetzTrump faces tricky choice on Supreme Court pick Florida attorney general scrutinizing Bloomberg paying fines for felons to vote Lara Trump campaigns with far-right activist candidate Laura Loomer in Florida MORE (R-Fla.) tried to stir the pot early in the day, attempting to sit in on her testimony despite not being on any of the three investigatory committees. Gaetz tried appealing to the House parliamentarian to no avail.

"I went into the committee room and [House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff Adam Bennett SchiffSchiff to subpoena top DHS official, alleges whistleblower deposition is being stonewalled Schiff claims DHS is blocking whistleblower's access to records before testimony GOP lawmakers distance themselves from Trump comments on transfer of power MORE (D-Calif.)] told me I had to leave ," Gaetz told reporters in the Capitol. "And we waited for a ruling from the parliamentarian. And at that time, I had to depart" (The Hill).

Hill’s appearance was the start of a busy week for investigators. On Wednesday, investigators are slated to interview Michael McKinley, a former senior adviser to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Michael (Mike) Richard PompeoWatchdog confirms State Dept. canceled award for journalist who criticized Trump Trump's push for win with Sudan amps up pressure on Congress Putin nominated for Nobel Peace Prize MORE, as House Democrats look into Pompeo’s involvement and impact on the State Department (The Washington Post).

One day later, investigators are expected to depose Sondland a week after the State Department blocked him from testifying. Additionally, House investigators have multiple deadlines for administration figures to comply with subpoenas, including Pence and Giuliani.

Politico: Trump's former Russia aide testifies in impeachment probe.

The Washington Post: “Disruptive diplomat” Sondland, a key figure in Trump impeachment furor, long coveted ambassadorship.

Jonathan Allen: Why Democrats are sure Adam Schiff is the perfect person to take on Trump.







IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES





INTERNATIONAL: Japan: A powerful typhoon on Saturday forced tens of thousands of Japanese to evacuate towns that are now underwater after more than 35 inches of rain was reported. Typhoon Hagibis, perhaps the worst storm of its kind since 1958, killed at least 56 people and another 15 were reported missing, while at least 211 were injured, according to NHK on Monday. Tens of thousands of rescue workers and a fleet of helicopters fanned out to affected areas, officials said. “Damage has been made in an extremely wide range of areas, and more than 30,000 people are still being forced to remain in the state of evacuation. It is our urgent task to offer meticulous support to those who have been affected,” Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said (Reuters).

Reuters Graphics: In a swirl of satellite images, watch the anatomy of a monster typhoon.

> United Kingdom: Queen Elizabeth II, who like her countrymen is in a third year of suspense about how Great Britain will split from the European Union by an Oct. 31 deadline, on Monday delivered an address about proposed legislation and policies, including Brexit. The Queen’s Speech, an annual event of tiaraed pageantry and national curiosity, was scripted by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government. With Brexit in limbo and another unpredictable election likely in the near future, Johnson’s critics said he misused the politically neutral queen by asking her to set out his election agenda (Reuters).

> China-U.S. trade: Trump on Friday hailed a “phase one” trade deal between the United States and China as “by far the greatest and the biggest deal ever made,” but by dawn on Monday, investors and businesses expressed misgivings that nothing specific had been committed to paper and most tariffs on Chinese imports remained in effect. Beijing indicated that further talks were needed to build on the phased approach to deal-making Trump suddenly hailed last week. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Steven Terner MnuchinThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Republicans lawmakers rebuke Trump on election On The Money: Anxious Democrats push for vote on COVID-19 aid | Pelosi, Mnuchin ready to restart talks | Weekly jobless claims increase | Senate treads close to shutdown deadline Vulnerable Democrats tell Pelosi COVID-19 compromise 'essential' MORE said the next round of tariffs on imports from China are set to take effect on Dec. 15 if negotiators do not achieve results (Reuters).

In the midst of a 15-month trade war between the world’s two largest economies, the original sticking points remain. Largely unaddressed are the persistent U.S. complaints about China’s state-dominated economic model (Reuters).

The Associated Press: Trade analysts located few details while China made no public commitments. “A nothing-burger,” concluded one China watcher.







The Morning Report is created by journalists Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver. We want to hear from you! Email: asimendinger@thehill.com and aweaver@thehill.com. We invite you to share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!







OPINION





'Bernie or bust' remains a potent force despite his health concerns, by Jessica Tarlov, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2q6wbo7

Trump's decision on Syria is nothing short of disaster, by Dov. S. Zakheim, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2B7Em65







WHERE AND WHEN





Hill.TV’s “Rising” at 9 a.m. ET features Paul Steinhauser, New Hampshire political reporter, and Julia Manchester, political reporter for The Hill, both live from Ohio to preview tonight’s Democratic debate; and former presidential candidate and former Sen. Mike Gravel (D-Alaska) to weigh in on the 2020 race and the debate at http://thehill.com/hilltv. Hill.TV will also host special debate pre- and post-shows live tomorrow on YouTube. The pre-show is 7:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. and the post-debate coverage begins at 11 p.m.

The House returns to work at 2 p.m.

The Senate convenes at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of the nomination of Barbara McConnell Barrett to be secretary of the Air Force.

The president will have lunch with Pence at 12:30 p.m. Trump will hold a photo opportunity with the VIPs connected to the St. Louis Blues at 3 p.m. at the White House, followed by Trump’s meet-and-greet with the 2019 Stanley Cup champion players. At 4 p.m., the president will meet with Secretary of Defense Mark Esper Mark EsperOvernight Defense: Stopgap spending measure awaits Senate vote | Trump nominates former Nunes aide for intelligence community watchdog | Trump extends ban on racial discrimination training to contractors, military Overnight Defense: Pentagon redirects pandemic funding to defense contractors | US planning for full Afghanistan withdrawal by May | Anti-Trump GOP group puts ads in military papers Official: Pentagon has started 'prudent planning' for full Afghanistan withdrawal by May MORE.

Pence will meet with Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly at 11 a.m. in the Roosevelt Room. The vice president join the president for lunch and to meet with the St. Louis Blues champions at the White House.

Stanley Cup on Capitol Hill! The National Hockey League, in conjunction with the Missouri congressional delegation, will bring the Stanley Cup to Capitol Hill on Wednesday. Rep. Wm. Lacy Clay William (Lacy) Lacy ClayFive things we learned from this year's primaries Progressives aim for big night in Massachusetts Progressives look to unseat top Democrat in Massachusetts primary MORE (D-Mo.) hosts a trophy viewing from 10:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. in room 2220 of the Rayburn House Office Building, while proud Blues fans Missouri Sens. Roy Blunt Roy Dean BluntSCOTUS confirmation in the last month of a close election? Ugly Senate to push funding bill vote up against shutdown deadline Social media platforms put muscle into National Voter Registration Day MORE (R) and Josh Hawley Joshua (Josh) David HawleyHillicon Valley: Subpoenas for Facebook, Google and Twitter on the cards | Wray rebuffs mail-in voting conspiracies | Reps. raise mass surveillance concerns Trump faces tricky choice on Supreme Court pick FBI director warns that Chinese hackers are still targeting US COVID-19 research MORE (R) share the honors from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. in room 301 of the Russell Senate Office Building, known as the Kennedy Caucus Room.

You’re invited to The Hill's upcoming newsmaker event, Innovation Runway: The Cutting Edge of Aviation, at the Newseum on Oct. 23 at 8 a.m. Sen. Ted Cruz Rafael (Ted) Edward CruzCrenshaw looms large as Democrats look to flip Texas House seat SCOTUS confirmation in the last month of a close election? Ugly The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Trump previews SCOTUS nominee as 'totally brilliant' MORE (R-Texas), Rep. Rick Larsen Richard (Rick) Ray LarsenDemocratic lawmaker calls for stronger focus on trade leverage to raise standards The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden, Harris launch Trump offensive in first joint appearance The Hill's 12:30 Report: Biden, Harris's first day as running mates MORE (D-Wash.) and Daniel Elwell, deputy administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, will discuss changes in American aviation that affect consumers and the nation. Information is HERE.







ELSEWHERE





➔ Flu season: If you’re about to roll up a sleeve for a seasonal influenza shot (and that describes about 45 percent of the U.S. population), you might want to read some of the latest scientific findings to answer frequently asked questions. For example, if you get your shot today and the flu season hits in January or February, chances are good that some of the protection will wear off in those intervening months (STAT News).

➔ Employment: 350 people lost their jobs with Uber Technologies Inc. on Monday as the company continues to cut costs in the face of huge losses and investor pressures to find a revenue model that can turn a profit. Eight hundred employees were jettisoned in July and September (Bloomberg).

➔ ⚾ Nats: The Washington Nationals are one win away from the World Series after defeating the St. Louis Cardinals, 8-1, in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series. The Nats were powered by 7 innings of 1-run baseball by Stephen Strasburg, who struck out 12, and NLDS hero Howie Kendrick, who went 3-4 with 3 RBIs. Patrick Corbin will take the mound tonight as they go for the sweep at Nationals Park tonight. First pitch is slated for 8:05 p.m. (The Washington Post).







THE CLOSER





And finally … Fans of the Los Angeles Kings are having a hard time shaking off the thought that Taylor Swift Taylor Alison SwiftSocial media platforms put muscle into National Voter Registration Day Taylor Swift on National Voter Registration Day: 'We need everyone' Jennifer Aniston, Kevin Hart among celebs highlighting National Voter Registration Day MORE may have cursed their team’s success in recent seasons.

Ever since a banner appeared in Staples Center, the Kings’ home arena, commemorating Swift’s sold-out concerts at the venue in 2015, the Kings have been unable to make it out of the first round of the playoffs after winning the Stanley Cup in 2012 and 2014. This has led some fans to take their frustrations out on Swift, who they blame for their lack of playoff wins in the last five seasons.

In response, the Kings announced the team will cover up the banner during home games after some fans “made it clear that the banner shouldn't be part of their Kings game experience,” according to Michael Altieri, senior vice president of marketing, communications and content for the Kings (ESPN).





