We still don't know — no one knows — how the Senate's health care process is likely to end. But it's now well under way. And as the lopsided defeat of the Senate repeal-and-replace plan last night showed, there could be plenty of surprises ahead.

Here's where things stand as we barrel toward some kind of conclusion tomorrow night.

The Senate last night voted down a modified version of Republicans' larger repeal-and-replace bill, the Better Care Reconciliation Act. But BCRA is not necessarily dead. Last night's version included provisions that haven't been scored or reviewed by the parliamentarian.

Another, simpler version — like the most recent one scored by the Congressional Budget Office — could still come up later in the process, a senior GOP aide told us.

Technically, last night's vote was procedural, but it's extremely reasonable to take that vote as a proxy for the policy itself.

The next vote, scheduled for early this afternoon, will be on the updated version of the 2015 repeal-only bill. That, too, is expected to fail.

All signs point to a vote-a-rama Thursday night, perhaps into Friday morning.

The hot new thing: "Skinny repeal." If neither BCRA nor straight repeal looks to be gaining any traction, the next option in the rotation appears to be a bill that would repeal small parts of the ACA — like the individual mandate and a tax or two.