HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-2) Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 2. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-2 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-2 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .75 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2019. sport round site Game 6 rec. series rec. all all all 447-370 (.547) 650-167 (.796) all all H 260-227 (.534) 410-77 (.842) all all V 187-143 (.567) 240-90 (.727) all Finals all 75-76 (.497) 113-38 (.748) all Finals H 49-37 (.570) 72-14 (.837) all Finals V 26-39 (.400) 41-24 (.631) all Semis all 115-88 (.567) 159-44 (.783) all Semis H 58-55 (.513) 93-20 (.823) all Semis V 57-33 (.633) 66-24 (.733) all Qtrs all 116-110 (.513) 188-38 (.832) all Qtrs H 72-78 (.480) 129-21 (.860) all Qtrs V 44-32 (.579) 59-17 (.776) all Prelim all 141-96 (.595) 190-47 (.802) all Prelim H 81-57 (.587) 116-22 (.841) all Prelim V 60-39 (.606) 74-25 (.747) MLB all all 48-57 (.457) 73-32 (.695) MLB all H 28-23 (.549) 39-12 (.765) MLB all V 20-34 (.370) 34-20 (.630) MLB Finals all 24-40 (.375) 43-21 (.672) MLB Finals H 14-15 (.483) 21-8 (.724) MLB Finals V 10-25 (.286) 22-13 (.629) MLB Semis all 24-17 (.585) 30-11 (.732) MLB Semis H 14-8 (.636) 18-4 (.818) MLB Semis V 10-9 (.526) 12-7 (.632) NBA all all 174-135 (.563) 261-48 (.845) NBA all H 106-94 (.530) 182-18 (.910) NBA all V 68-41 (.624) 79-30 (.725) NBA Finals all 27-19 (.587) 37-9 (.804) NBA Finals H 17-12 (.586) 26-3 (.897) NBA Finals V 10-7 (.588) 11-6 (.647) NBA Semis all 43-36 (.544) 62-17 (.785) NBA Semis H 23-25 (.479) 40-8 (.833) NBA Semis V 20-11 (.645) 22-9 (.710) NBA Qtrs all 60-54 (.526) 101-13 (.886) NBA Qtrs H 40-42 (.488) 77-5 (.939) NBA Qtrs V 20-12 (.625) 24-8 (.750) NBA Prelim all 44-26 (.629) 61-9 (.871) NBA Prelim H 26-15 (.634) 39-2 (.951) NBA Prelim V 18-11 (.621) 22-7 (.759) NHL all all 225-178 (.558) 316-87 (.784) NHL all H 126-110 (.534) 189-47 (.801) NHL all V 99-68 (.593) 127-40 (.760) NHL Finals all 24-17 (.585) 33-8 (.805) NHL Finals H 18-10 (.643) 25-3 (.893) NHL Finals V 6-7 (.462) 8-5 (.615) NHL Semis all 48-35 (.578) 67-16 (.807) NHL Semis H 21-22 (.488) 35-8 (.814) NHL Semis V 27-13 (.675) 32-8 (.800) NHL Qtrs all 56-56 (.500) 87-25 (.777) NHL Qtrs H 32-36 (.471) 52-16 (.765) NHL Qtrs V 24-20 (.545) 35-9 (.795) NHL Prelim all 97-70 (.581) 129-38 (.772) NHL Prelim H 55-42 (.567) 77-20 (.794) NHL Prelim V 42-28 (.600) 52-18 (.743)