Cas Mudde: Trump won the Democratic caucuses in Iowa

Having the first caucus in the Democratic primaries in Iowa was always a bad decision. The state is small, almost certainly going for Trump in November, and completely unrepresentative of the broader US population. And I am not even talking about the bizarre way in which supporters caucus around candidates, moving from “unviable” to “viable” candidates. But things got even worse on the night itself. After changing the rules to ensure “quality control”, the party claimed “inconsistencies” in reporting were responsible for an hours-long delay in the announcement of the results.

Still, while we did not know the Democratic winner by midnight, we did already know the real winner: Donald Trump. I can see the Facebook ads already: “Democrats cannot even organize an election. How can you trust them with running your country?” (Honest to God, I wrote that before I saw this tweet by Brad Parscale, Trump’s campaign manager.) And in true Trump fashion, Parscale was already spreading conspiracy theories last night, tweeting: “Quality control = rigged?” They will use the chaos of the Iowa caucuses to fuel conspiracy theories and discord within camps of Democratic supporters, targeting supporters of unsuccessful candidates in the hope that they will not come out in November. Iowa Democrats, you had one task yesterday, and you failed. Trump thanks you!

Cas Mudde is a Guardian US columnist

Jessa Crispin: Democratic party magicians are incompetent

America doesn’t even let other countries have socialist leaders, so it’s no wonder that when the results were delayed for mysterious reasons, the conspiracy theories started online almost immediately. How easy would it be to hijack the caucus results? Probably pretty easy, since no one seems to have a full understanding of how a caucus works. I’ve read through the procedure dozens of times over the years and I’m still not sure I could explain it effectively. The whole process, which is convoluted and based around the idea that no one has anything better to do than sit in a school gymnasium or parish building all night long, does seem hopelessly midwestern, though.

Since 2016, the thing I have noticed the most is how many people are just now waking up to how American democracy works, in that it does not. The electoral college allows people with fewer votes to win the presidency? Yes, and it has always been this way. The Iowa caucus holds too much power over our electoral process, due to its arbitrary placement in the primary season and the way its complex format allows someone with half as many votes to get the same number of delegates as the winner. The American system has always been a democratic sleight of hand.

At least now our party magicians are so incompetent we can see where the card we chose really went. We need real campaign reform that is transparent and fair. No more gerrymandering, even when it benefits our “side”. No more votes that go toward delegates rather than totals. No more dark money, no more mass disenfranchisement. No more voting on days that are not guaranteed work holidays. And no more apps! We need to rebuild the process from the ground up, no matter who ultimately wins.

Jessa Crispin is the host of the Public Intellectual podcast

Jill Filipovic: This does not bode well for the election

One good thing came out of Monday night’s absolute debacle of a primary in Iowa: it gave us one big, final reason why the state should never again be the first to vote. (It also confirmed why the caucusing system is one of the worst ideas ever to enter American politics, and suggested election infrastructure and security should be at the top of the list of 2020 concerns.)

No one hacked the caucuses, and no evil-doers appear to have messed with the app; the delayed results in Iowa were thanks to good old-fashioned incompetence, and magnified by a lack of transparency. The Iowa primary was already facing criticism for being unrepresentative (Iowa is overwhelmingly white; the country, and to an even greater degree the Democratic party, is not) and mobbish: the caucus system requires a public vote and encourages what is at best persuasion but at worst bullying, as voters may feel pressured by having to state their choice in front of family, friends, coworkers, bosses, neighbors and loved ones. Plus it involves a lot of math. It is a terrible and profoundly stupid system. And now it is failing spectacularly.

In a particularly disturbing but entirely predictable twist, conspiracy theories and fear-mongering began to spread almost immediately on social media. This does not bode well for the general election in 2020.

The only person who won the night was Amy Klobuchar, who, despite the fact that she was clearly going to lose, made the savvy choice to get out and give what sounded a lot like a victory speech – at the exact moment that every news network was live on air and out of stuff to say. Her words were given prime placement. By the time the other candidates spoke, even the most politics-addicted east coasters were headed to bed.

No matter who wins Iowa or when we find out, can we all agree on one thing? Let’s never do this again.

Jill Filipovic is the author of The H-Spot: The Feminist Pursuit of Happiness

Lloyd Green: Monday was a bad night for clarity – and technology

Six hours after the caucuses began, the Iowa Democratic party was still unable to release results. Fittingly, this may be the last time Iowa Democrats go first, or caucus instead of holding a primary. Make no mistake, all that would be a good thing.

Adding insult to injury, reality didn’t match the hoopla. Caucus turnout was in the same ballpark as 2016, when Hillary Clinton eked out a squeaker over Bernie Sanders. The magic of 2008 and Barack Obama were clearly missing.

As for a winner, there were only outlines of “entrance polls”, vague projections, and whispered pronouncements. Bernie Sanders’ and Pete Buttigieg’s camps both laid claim to finishing first.

Joe Biden has plenty to worry about. Younger voters wanted someone other than Obama’s vice-president.

Divisions among Democrats and attitudinal schizophrenia were also on display. Vermont’s senior senator showed limited appeal beyond his base of youthful and liberal voters. Moderate Democrats and older Iowans were uninterested. Democratic socialism comes with a floor and a ceiling.

Last, caucusgoers expressed a preference for a candidate who was electable while supporting government-driven healthcare over private insurance. Good luck with that. Monday was a bad night for technology and clarity alike.