x Bernie needs 57% of remaining pledged delegates to win pledged Dem delegate count.



Want 57% to be 56%? Gotta win Wisconsin by 48 points. — Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) April 4, 2016

Math remains Sanders’ greatest enemy, and even a massive 50-point win in Wisconsin would barely move the needle in his direction. He’ll then do well in Wyoming, but with just 14 pledged delegates, it certainly doesn’t move any needles, even if he wins them all.

And then two long weeks for the big New York primary, where Hillary Clinton is going all out (just like Sanders). Neither candidate will be able to claim New York doesn’t count because they decided to focus elsewhere. In fact, it may be the most hotly contested state by both sides since the two first states of Iowa and New Hampshire. I was going to say “Ohio and Michigan,” but the long current lag time between contests has given both campaigns time to focus heavily on the Empire State in a way that wasn’t possible during the more compressed early part of the calendar.

A week after New York? Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Sanders has had a good run with a favorable map for about a month now. But that all changes two weeks from now. The map will then turn to Clinton’s favor. There’s a reason Tad Devine is talking about superdelegates giving Sanders the victory even if he loses the actual vote.

Still, Sanders will likely keep his winning streak alive in Wisconsin, and yet again in Wyoming. That should keep the money flowing, which in turn will keep dragging this thing out. And if Clinton performs the improbable and eeks out a Wisconsin victory? Doesn’t matter. This thing will still drag out.

Now I’m not feeling sorry for Hillary Clinton, she pulled this same trick in 2008. I’m rather enjoying the karmic payback. But I won’t pretend that dragging this thing out in 2016 is any more noble than Clinton doing it in 2008.