Alisher Usmanov's hopes of buying enough shares to take his stake in Arsenal to 29.9% look unlikely to be realised and a takeover by the Russian billionaire appears out of the question.

Today Usmanov said he hoped to increase his holding to a "blocking" stake of 29.9% and did not rule out a bid for control of the club. "Today, we have 27%; our objective is to bring that up to a blocking stake of 29.9%," Bloomberg quoted Usmanov as saying on Russian state TV. "And from there, we will just keep looking. You can never tell what happens in life."

For months Usmanov has had an open "buy" notice in the Plus market stock exchange, where Arsenal are listed. It is his activity alone that has in the past 12 months pushed up the price of individual shares by 21.6%. Yet it has taken him two-and-a-half months to buy even 50 shares – or 0.08% of the total – which underlines just how difficult it is to expand a shareholding in the club.

Given that market data shows Usmanov holding 26.9% of Arsenal, the other 3% looks out of reach. Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith has placed her 15.9% stake on the open market but has been unable to sell. The reason is that a buyer would know he would be acquiring only a minority interest behind Usmanov and Stan Kroenke.

Kroenke, a US sports investor and real-estate billionaire, holds the strongest hand. Danny Fiszman, the owner of another 16% stake in Arsenal, has in previous sales transacted only with Kroenke. He is also believed to be behind moves that have frustrated Usmanov's attempts to gain boardroom representation. Kroenke, by contrast, has been made an executive director.

In the event of a takeover battle, it is unlikely Fiszman would sell his shares to anyone other than Kroenke. It is expected that if Usmanov were to trigger such a battle with the purchase of the Bracewell-Smith stake – taking his own to between 43% and 45% – a takeover would be vetoed in a vote of all shareholders. That would push Usmanov into a forced sale of his new shares: the Takeover Panel's City Code obliges failed mandatory bidders for companies to sell sufficient shares to take them back down to a 29.9% stake. And that would incur the loss of millions of pounds, with Usmanov back where he started.