Kalimantan

In 2013, WWF made an astonishing announcement: they had discovered a remnant population of Sumatran rhinos surviving in Kalimantan. They went on to announce that they had found approximately 15 rhinos.

Last year, WWF-Indonesia successfully captured a female rhino there, but she died in the care of WWF staff during a rescue that was heavily criticized.

With one rhino dead, the number in Kalimantan ticks down to an official estimate of 14.

However, both Payne and Haerudin said they’d never seen evidence of more than three rhinos — or just two today. Payne said the WWF report on the discovery in Kalimantan confirmed just three rhinos, “but the authors managed to inflate that to 15.”

Haerudin concurred. He said camera traps confirmed the presence of a female and her calf. But what happened to the male that sired the calf?

“Maybe poached,” he told me.

Of course, it is not impossible there are other rhinos in Kalimantan. WWF has publicly maintained that there are other solitary individuals and the organization is currently building a facility in Kalimantan to house rhinos it plans to catch.

However, WWF did not respond to queries asking if they had evidence of more than two rhinos.

Best case scenario: 14. Worst case: Two.

Way Kambas

Experts pointed to either Way Kambas National Park or Leuser National Park as the greatest hope for survival of the Sumatran rhino in the wild.

At the positive end, some experts believe there is a population of 30 or even more rhinos in Way Kambas. Boosting hopes is the fact that this population is still breeding: YABI has photos of calves from this year taken by RPUs using handheld cameras. A number of experts believe the population here is growing, in contrast to the overall population.

Still, the number of rhinos showing up on camera traps is declining in Way Kambas.

Arief said this is because the rhino population is consolidating in remote areas to avoid ongoing disturbance and encroachment by humans, including illegal deforestation, poaching and fires.

But not everyone believes this. Some researchers ask: if there are so many rhinos, why are so few showing up on camera traps?

Way Kambas is not only patrolled by the RPUs, but also the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Smart Patrols. And the Smart Patrols are finding little sign of rhinos — but lots of elephants killed by poachers.

“Last week … we found another two [dead] female adult elephants,” said Wulan Pusparini, a conservation scientist with the WCS. “It’s a very small park, and the elephant is dying off. So what’s the situation for rhinos whose horns are [more] valuable than the ivory?” If elephants are vanishing from Way Kambas, it stands to reason that rhinos are also being targeted.

Payne said that based on the evidence he’s seen, Way Kambas has at best 12 rhinos, perhaps fewer. There may be a couple of females still capable of birthing, but that doesn’t mean the population is viable.

Best case scenario: 30-plus. Worst case: 12.

Leuser National Park

In political terms, Gunung Leuser National Park is a different world. Located in the northern Sumatran state of Aceh, the rhinos here fall under a different jurisdiction than those in the south.

Depending on who you talk to, Leuser is either the best chance for long-term survival, or a disconnected, scattered population, harried by poachers.

“The biggest unknown,” Payne said. “A few tens. Maybe. That’s all one can say.”

On the optimistic side, conservationists appear to have more recent camera-trap photos of rhinos in Leuser than anywhere else. From these, they’ve identified at least 12 individuals. Wulan and Payne both believe that Leuser, not Way Kambas, is the most promising place for wild Sumatran rhinos.

But Haerudin said that ongoing uncertainty means it is possible there are fewer than 15 left. He also said poaching here was worse than anywhere else.

“We just don’t know about the north, we just don’t really know about Leuser because of the rocky terrain and the mountainous habitats,” said Susie Ellis, the director of the IRF. “It’s just a tough place to do surveys.”

Worryingly, this year two rhino horns were confiscated from suspected poachers in northern Sumatra.

Best case scenario: 30-plus. Worst case: Fewer than 15.

Captivity

The only Sumatran rhinos that are easy to count are those in captivity. Currently there are two rhinos, a male and a female, at BORA’s facility in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. There are another seven rhinos at the Sumatran Rhino Sanctuary, just inside Way Kambas National Park. Two of the rhinos are young: Andatu was born in 2012 and Delilah in 2016. They represent an insurance policy, however feeble, against immediate extinction.

Total in captivity: Nine.