Tamil Nadu-based news media outlet Spick Media Network in pre-poll survey findings released on July 27, said a Congress-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance will pose a stiff challenge for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Madhya Pradesh, in assembly elections slated for late in 2018.

Conversely, in absence of a Congress-BSP alliance, Spick predicts that the BJP will comfortably form the state government again.

The Spick findings show that in the first scenario with Congress and BSP fighting separately (see graphic above), the BJP would sail through with a majority of 147/130 seats. However, in the second scenario where BJP is faced with a Congress-BSP alliance, its seat tally falls to 126/130, a thin-majority of 10 seats. The Congress-BSP alliance, in this survey conducted in mid-June to mid-July, are snapping at BJP’s heels, with 103 seats.

These findings will worry BJP President Amit Shah, as there are effectively just four months remaining before the assembly elections, and talks between the Congress and BSP over seat-sharing in Madhya Pradesh are already underway. However, these findings also sound a warning to the Congress, because the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains very high in Madhya Pradesh, as per other findings of the same survey (see below).

If a situation arises where Madhya Pradesh elects its assembly and Lok Sabha MPs simultaneously, a Congress-led alliance will have to work not just doubly, but triply hard to win the state back from BJP after 15 years in Opposition.