Lobbying expenditures in the third quarter of 2012 continued to decline, according to a Center for Responsive Politics analysis of recently released reports filed with the U.S. Senate. Lobbying clients spent just over $770 million dollars between July 1 and Sept. 30, down from the $817 million they spent between April 1 and June 30 and also down from the $803 million spent in the third quarter of 2011.

The number of active, registered lobbyists also continues to slide. Active lobbyists numbered 11,178 individuals in the second quarter of 2012, a number which fell to 10,136 in the third quarter. Some have speculated that this decline can be explained by lobbyists hitting the campaign trail instead of visiting Congress, which was on recess for much of the third quarter. However, the decline in the number of registered lobbyists is nothing new — it continues a trend that started in 2008.

Spending isn’t the only thing that is down. The number of unique lobbying entities — that is, businesses, trade organizations, or interest groups who hire a federal lobbyist — is also falling. By the third quarter of 2011, 11,973 organizations had reported some lobbying activity. So far this year, only 10,860 organizations have reported any lobbying activity at all. Of the 100 top spenders from 2011, so far 60 have shown either declines or stagnation in their lobbying expenditures this year. Google, one of the few companies showing major increases in lobbying, continues its rapid rise, having already nearly tripled its year-to-date spending from last year.

The 40 percent of top spenders who did increase their spending appear to be bucking the larger trend: Of the pool of organizations that spent more than $5,000 in both 2011 and 2012, only 30 percent have reported greater lobbying expenditures.

These declines in company spending reflect similar declines in lobbying firm earnings. Of the top 20 lobbying firms, only two saw earnings from federal lobbying increase between the second and third quarters of 2012. One firm, Ogilvy Government Relations, which has recently seen many of its top lobbyists depart to other firms, earned a full $2.3 million less in the third quarter than it did in the second quarter.

K Street may very well re-bound this year, if past trends hold true. In the last election year, 2010, lobbying activity increased in the 4th quarter. If that trend is replicated this year, lobbying expenditures would likely reach $3.25 billion, which is still a decline from 2011. Lobbying in 2008, however, fell precipitously in the fourth quarter. If spending in 2012 continues along the 2008 track, we would expect spending to reach $3.21 billion, 4 percent lower than the total amount spent in 2011. At this point, all signs point to 2012 showing another decline in lobbying activity, though it’s unclear how dramatic that decrease will be.

There are signals that the fourth quarter could show increases in lobbying activity in some areas. In the third quarter, 408 entities — ranging from nearly every major state university to many large defense contractors — lobbied on sequestration. Although President Obama claimed in the third presidential debate that sequestration “will not happen,” Congress may not agree and this could spur an uptick in lobbying spending. People for the American Way, a left-leaning nonprofit, mentioned sequestration 41 separate times in its third quarter lobbying reports, more than any other lobbying client. Other groups showing an interest in the topic include Raytheon, the American Hospital Association, and the Pharmaceutical Researchers & Manufacturers of America.

The overall decline appears to be driven by declines in lobbying activity by industries across the board. Only about 30 percent of the industries profiled by the Center have increased their lobbying activity over their 2011 levels. The biggest increases, by far, have been made by “business organizations.” This industry includes the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has long been a lobbying behemoth. The Chamber has spent $95 million on lobbying activity so far in 2012, with nearly half of that being paid out in the most recent quarter. At this rate, they are on track to spend $120 million this year, up substantially from a quiet 2011. The Chamber also devotes major sums to electoral politics. In the last 2 years, the Chamber has spent just under $200 million attempting to influence elections or policies.



Agribusiness interests are also showing a slight uptick in lobbying activity in 2012. This is almost certainly driven by the potential reauthorization of the farm bill, which has attracted lobbying by 374 clients in 2012. The American Farm Bureau, the trade organization representing the farming industry, led the pack, followed by the Biotechnology Industry Organization.



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About The Author Sarah, who joined the Center in April 2011, is responsible for overseeing the Center's data analysis and research collaborations. She previously worked as the Center's lobbying and revolving door researcher. Prior to joining OpenSecrets, Sarah was a doctoral student at the Ohio State University, where she also taught undergraduate political science courses in political behavior. Her dissertation, entitled "Politicians Behaving Badly: The Determinants and Outcomes of Political Scandal in Post-Watergate America," incorporates both original data collection and political experiments. She received her Ph.D. from Ohio State in 2014, and her B.A. in political science and biology in 2006. Follow Sarah Bryner

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