What’s Got Link Smiling?

What are the factors that will give Link and all Reds fans reason to smile as the Reds approach the Super Rugby final against the Crusaders this weekend?

The Reds’ defensive record is good and there should be a good level of confidence the Reds can shut the Crusaders down. In 2009, before Link and his coaching team took charge, the Reds had a pretty ordinary record in that regard. Link says that when he first joined the Reds and was looking for assistant coaches he read a paper on defence written by Matt Taylor, who at the time was a Reds Academy coach. Apparently nobody had paid much attention to the paper but Link liked what he read and this led to the appointment of Taylor as the Reds’ defensive coach.

He’s certainly done a good job in that role. In 2010 and 2011 the Reds were one of the top five teams in the competition in terms of successfully completed tackles. All of those teams completed 90 per cent of their tackles.

In 2010 the Reds missed an average of 15 tackles per game, which put them equal third in the competition. In 2011 they maintained that standard, again missing an average of 15 tackles per game — which placed them equal first in the competition.

In the 2010 game at Suncorp between the Reds and Crusaders, the Reds missed 21 tackles and completed 83 per cent of the tackles they attempted. In the 2011 encounter the Reds missed 18 tackles and completed 89 per cent of their tackles attempted. They were very effective in shutting down the Crusaders’ biggest threat, Sonny Bill Williams.

Even though the Crusaders forced the Reds to miss more tackles in those games than their season average, the Reds placed similar pressure on the Crusaders’ defence. They missed 23 tackles in the 2010 game and 20 in the 2011 game for completion rates of 88 and 90 per cent respectively.

After averaging only 15 missed tackles per game in 2011, the Reds missed 42 tackles against the Blues last week. I’m sure the Reds will have worked hard on this area in training this week and I expect the teams will match each other defensively.

It’s obvious the crowd will play a role. Given that the stadium is sold out, I’m sure the atmosphere will be similar to what we saw in the State of Origin game between Queensland and New South Wales on Wednesday night. The crowd won’t have a major effect on the Crusaders as they have a lot of experienced big-match players, but I think it will lift the Reds significantly.

The Reds also seem to be playing their best rugby in the big games and this will be the biggest game many of the Reds players have played in so far in their careers.

We all know that the battle between the forwards will be vital and I think the Reds can at least match the Crusaders in this area. I think that the Reds have an edge in the backs with Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Digby Ioane and Rod Davies the keys. Don’t get me wrong, the Crusaders have threats all over the park including in their backline, but I think those four players may well tip the balance in the Reds’ favour.

Following is some game footage of their recent form.

[youtube width=”600″ height=”450″]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIYYQYBq8tI[/youtube]

Tomorrow I’ll give you my thoughts on the game plans we might expect from both teams.