THE vast majority of the people in England and Wales think Scotland will vote for independence if the Scottish Government calls a second referendum.

In the Opinium poll of 2,006 adults, conducted after the UK voted to leave the EU, 70 per cent of voters said they believed Scotland would back independence, compared to just 15 per cent who thought Scotland would choose to stay in the Union.

When the same question was asked of voters in England and Wales in 2014, 41 per cent of voters thought that Scotland would vote to stay in the UK, and 38 per cent thought the country would vote for independence.

It should be pointed out these were different samples: in 2014 it was all adults and in 2016 it was just voters. The polling company, though reluctant to make a direct comparison, called the new figures remarkable.

Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, told The National: “Shortly before the referendum on Scottish independence, English and Welsh voters narrowly believed that Scotland would vote to stay, which mirrored the actual result.

“Although the sample might not be directly comparable, it is remarkable that 70 per cent of English and Welsh adults now believe Scotland would opt to leave if another referendum was held. Whether this apparent change is due the prevailing wisdom around Brexit or a re-appraisal of the polling evidence is hard to tell.”

Last week, a Survation phone poll of Scots showed a surge in support for independence.

When asked if Scotland should be an independent country, 53 per cent said yes, compared to 47 per cent who said no.

It marked a five-point increase in support for independence since the last directly comparable Survation poll in April.

That poll also showed that 47 per cent of Scottish voters wanted a second independence referendum, compared to 42 per cent who didn’t.