San Jose loses residents but one Bay Area city is among country’s fastest growing

The hottest city in the Bay Area last year wasn’t San Francisco or Oakland or San Jose. It was Dublin, which grew 4.5 percent in 2018, making it the fastest growing city in California and the 11th fastest in the country.

That’s according to newly released population and housing estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Dublin was ranked as one of the top growers among cities with at least 50,000 residents. The new estimates also found that San Jose lost residents in the past year for the first time since at least 2010.

John Goodwin, a spokesman for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the Association of Bay Area Governments, wasn’t surprised by the Alameda County city’s growth.

“Dublin has been one of the fastest growing communities in the Bay Area for a number of years,” Goodwin said. “In terms of housing production, Dublin has punched way above its weight throughout this decade and probably longer than that.”

Dublin remains more affordable than large parts of the Bay Area: owner-occupied houses are about 31 percent cheaper than in San Francisco, according to census figures.The city has grown by 38 percent since 2010, which translates to slightly over 17,400 new residents.

“This is a long time in the making,” said Linda Smith, assistant city manager for Dublin. The city has focused on building out the eastern part of the community, which Smith said is about 80 percent completed.

She said she expects the city’s growth to “flatten out and start slowing down.”

“Maybe you live in Silicon Valley, you can come out to Dublin and get more house for the money,” Smith said.

But it’s not just housing, she said. Money Magazine named Dublin the best place to live in California and the seventh best in the nation. Smith credited the city’s more affordable housing and quality schools.

“We’ve built a pretty robust park system,” she said. She added, referring to the condition of the city’s streets, “We have the best pavement management in the Bay Area.”

Other fast-growing Bay Area cities include Milpitas, in Santa Clara County, and Emeryville in Alameda County, both of which grew by 3.2 percent. Mountain View, in the South Bay, grew by 2.7 percent. That’s an encouraging trend, Goodwin said, because those cities are close to the region’s main job centers in San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

Goodwin said he was more surprised by San Jose, which declined by 0.2 percent, to 1.03 million residents. The city, he said, has been a relative leader in housing production for the region.

“From 2010 to 2017, San Jose has actually topped the region in housing production,” he said. During that time the city added, “a little more than 2,600 units a year, on average.”

Despite the decrease, San Jose remains the 10th largest city in the country, ahead of Austin and behind Dallas. It’s also the third largest city in the state, after Los Angeles and San Diego. San Francisco, which grew 0.5 percent in 2018, is the 15th largest city in the US with about 883,300 residents. Oakland grew 1.5 percent, to about 429,000 residents.

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Why the housing crisis hits this Bay Area group especially hard The new census estimates also highlighted the region’s housing production, which Goodwin said hasn’t been fast enough to meet the growing demand.

The five-county Bay Area added 23,916 new housing units in 2018, an overall gain of 1 percent. Alameda County led the way, with 9,094 new units for a 1.5 percent increase. Goodwin said the county’s relative proximity to San Francisco and Silicon Valley make it a good location for new housing construction.

“But 1.5 percent growth is clearly not equal to the demand dynamics,” he said.

Still, it’s higher than Marin County, which added 59 new housing units in 2018, a growth rate of about 0.05 percent.

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