Note that this report is generated based on the information available on June 24th, 2015.

The Sci-fi Thriller from Focus Features, Self/less, is coming to theaters on July 10th. It would be interesting to conduct an analysis before the release to see what we can learn from past data and to observe if the actual box office numbers turns out to reflect what was shown in the data.

First, let’s look at the main cast of Self/less. Ryan Reynolds has a higher than average performance in the thriller genre. You can see that in the graph below, about 67% of his thriller movies are over the benchmark average. However, could his performance in thriller genre be supporting the success of a blockbuster or would this be the last straw that Self/less is grabbing onto?

We now look at Ben Kingsley, as he is the older version of the protagonist in this sci-fi thriller film. With only 25% over the benchmark average, his performance in the thriller genre does not seem to support a blockbuster at all. You can see this in the graph below:

Next, let’s look at the performance of Matthew Goode. From the graph below we can see that the overall performance of Matthew Goode is nowhere near bankable. Only 17% of movies starring him are over the benchmark average.

The stats on the main cast of Self/less were not very bankable; let’s see if the director and the story itself can help the movie become commercially successful. Director Tarsem Singh’s performance is the lowest one can get. All of his movies in our database are below the benchmark average shown in the graph below, yikes!

From the information available right now, the main idea of Self/less seems to be a sci-fi thriller with the attribute: immortality or resurrection. If we look at the performance of movies that fit these criteria, only 23% of them are over the benchmark average, as shown in the graph below:

The main plot twist of Self/less seems to be that the protagonist was deceived to accept a body that had a past life while thinking he was receiving an “empty” body. Therefore, we can also include deception into our criteria and look for above movies with this attribute. It turns out that including deception in an immortal, resurrection sci-fi thriller only make things worse. Only 20% of these movies are above the benchmark average:

From the above analysis we can see that the odds are obvious not in the favour of Self/less, the chance is slim for it to thrive in domestic box office. It is definitely a risky investment decision.

Greenlight Essentials is a company that is dedicated to helping entertainment professionals better understand movie data and bring big data analysis to the film industry. We plan to do this by creating software that allows users with neither programming nor mathematics background to explore and discover repeatable patterns from decades of film data. This way, without watching decades of films or gathering past audience reactions, industry professionals can have a better understanding of what combinations of elements in a film would draw in an audience and what combinations of elements in a film would repel an audience.

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The information in this document is provided to you by Greenlight Essentials as an estimation for informational purposes only, based on third party, publicly available information. Information in this document was generated using Greenlight Essential’s proprietary software program and media database to compare publicly available information about this film with historical film and market data. Greenlight Essentials does not assess data for quality or otherwise; such data may not be accurate, and is subject to change. Metrics in this document are based solely on algorithms that are designed to detect data patterns, not on any opinions or judgment exercised by Greenlight Essentials. Accordingly, there are no warranties, express or implied, with respect to the contents of this document. In no event shall Greenlight Essentials be liable to you or any party for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages related to the contents of this document, including without limitation, reliance on the information presented. It is solely your responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of the information in this document.