Comparing Sven Andrighetto and Daniel Carr: Waivers Could (and Should) be the Deciding Factor

Coming into training camp it was clear that the Montreal Canadiens had a log-jam of forwards. Now camp is almost over, and with 14 one-way contracts up front, Artturi Lehkonen looking like a legitimate candidate to steal a roster spot, and a plethora of bottom-six talent, it’s clear that at least one forward will be very well-paid by AHL standards come the end of preseason.

Enter Sven Andrighetto and Daniel Carr. Andrighetto is 23, Carr 24. The former requires waivers, the latter does not. Sven plays both left wing and right, Carr plays left. Both have successful, albeit short NHL stints in their portfolio. Both put up virtually identical P/GP. And both are decently promising talents who could crack the Canadiens roster full-time this season.

Also, consider the plethora of depth forwards the Canadiens have: Paul Byron, Torrey Mitchell, Phillip Danault, Brian Flynn, and Stefan Matteau. Matteau is out of the picture, but with a big-time blue-line battle between Mikhail Sergachev, Mark Barberio, and Zach Redmond for the seventh spot, three cuts at forward seem most likely to trim the roster to 23.

Given this, it’s no surprise that Andrighetto and Carr are often seen as battling for a roster spot on the Canadiens. In the rest of this article, I’ll quickly compare the two players.

AHL statistics courtesy of Prospect-Stats.com.

NHL statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey.

TOI statistics derived from Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.

The AHL

Both Andrighetto and Carr began last season in the AHL and they were arguably the top-two IceCaps forwards when in the lineup.

P/GP Prim P/GP Rel.GF% eP/60 ePrim P/60 ESP/GP ES Prim P/GP PPP/GP PP Prim P/GP Andrighetto 0.885 0.538 27.983 3.029 1.844 0.654 0.308 0.231 0.231 Carr 0.875 0.667 18.12 2.784 2.121 0.708 0.542 0.167 0.125





For the most part, the players are fairly close. As expected, Carr’s goalscoring prowess gave him larger primary totals, whereas Andrighetto’s all-around offensive ability gave him greater point totals. Andrighetto pulls ahead of Carr in the GF% department, but considering the rarity of goals and the limited AHL time both players spent, it’s tough to put significant weight into this measure.

Based off what I’ve seen, I’d give Andrighetto a slight edge in his AHL performance this season. Andrighetto’s array of offensive tools, combined with his strong forechecking, made him a better play-driver for the IceCaps than Carr.

The NHL

Andrighetto played 44 games in the NHL this season, 21 more than Carr; however, it is safe to presume that Carr would’ve come close to that mark had he not been sidelined with injury.

Rel.CF% Rel.FF% Rel.CF60 Rel.CA60 Rel.xGF% Andrighetto 3.04 4.32 5.26 -1.73 4.74 Carr 2.29 2.97 0.49 -4.22 5.09

It is NHL experience where Andrighetto begins to pull away from Carr. By no means should a small sample size of shot attempts be taken as a predictive measure, but last season Andrighetto was clearly a stronger shot-driving player. Breaking down Rel.CF% into per-60 measurements shows a significant gap between Andrighetto and Carr’s performance from last season. In Rel.xGF%, essentially a measure of goal expectancy by shot quality, Carr produces a slight edge.

Context

Numbers need context, and it’s a good thing that more numbers can provide that!

Bubble size represents Zone Start Ratio. All statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey.

Andrighetto faced stronger opposition, but did so with better linemates. Both players started a similar amount of shifts in the offensive zone.

Breaking down quality of teammates further makes the debate even more interesting. Carr spent 47.38% of his total ice time with Eller–his most common linemate–and 41.36% of his time with Galchenyuk.

Meanwhile, Andrighetto spent a strikingly similar 48.37% of his total ice time with Galchenyuk and 38.39% with Eller.

The biggest difference in their linemates was that when not playing with Galchenyuk, Andrighetto received better linemates. Andrighetto’s next two most common linemates were Pacioretty (29.4%) and Desharnais (20.44%), whereas Carr’s were Flynn (19.29%) and Fleischmann (16.70%), but his second most common deployment was with Plekanec and Eller.

Basically, the difference in their usage is marginal. Andrighetto played with better players when away from Galchenyuk and Eller, but he did so at the expense of facing better opposition.

Conclusion

The Canadiens still need to make four cuts, most likely coming from the group of Andrighetto, Carr, Danault, Flynn, McCarron, Barberio, Redmond, Sergachev. McCarron appears the obvious cut, with Flynn looking set to be waived.

The Canadiens could minimize their waiver woes by returning Sergachev to junior before the 23-man limit and making Carr the last cut (meaning Flynn is the only player subjected to waivers); however, carrying eight defenders, especially when one of them isn’t last summer’s ninth overall pick seems unlikely. Trading Mitchell would also create some room, but that too seems unlikely.

Considering Carr’s waiver eligibility and the marginal differences between the two it would seem to be an obvious choice to send Carr to the AHL. Neither player has had a noteworthy preseason, but both are probably deserving NHLers at this point.

Thus far, Andrighetto has performed better in the NHL, although it is not by a substantial margin. Given their history, I would expect the trend to continue (although I see a legitimate argument either way).

Myself, I would waive Flynn and one of Barberio/Redmond, then send Carr to the AHL. This way, both Carr and Andrighetto remain in the system, and Carr receives top-flight minutes in the AHL rather than one of Carr/Andrighetto being a fourth liner or 13th forward.

While the argument that Carr is more deserving of a roster spot based off merit is legitimate, I hold the opposite view. Andrighetto brings a slightly better package of skills, backed up with a slightly better track record. Given this, it would be particularly asinine to expose one player to waivers when the other, similar option can stay in the organization hassle-free.

Of course, they wouldn’t even be in this situation if the Habs didn’t have such a fascination with depth/”bottom-six” players…