Senate is preparing to vote on the supreme court nominee following a whirlwind FBI investigation

The US Senate is preparing for a final vote on the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the supreme court. Here’s where things stand in the controversial battle that has roiled American politics for weeks.

When will the Senate vote?

On Friday morning the Senate voted 51-49 to end debate on the nomination, setting up a final vote on Kavanaugh to be held over the weekend, likely on Saturday. In Friday’s vote, known as a cloture vote, two senators voted against their parties: Republican senator Lisa Murkowski voted no, and Democratic senator Joe Manchin voted yes.

For Kavanaugh to be defeated, two senators who voted to end debate on his nomination, effectively allowing it to proceed, would ultimately have to vote against him. If the senators split 50-50, Vice-President Mike Pence would break the tie in Kavanaugh’s favor, in what would be an unprecedented move to install a supreme court justice.

What happened in the last week?

Voters plead with Susan Collins to oppose Kavanaugh – but which way will she swing? Read more

The FBI interviewed a reported nine people about at least two separate incidents of sexual assault allegedly perpetrated by Kavanaugh, allegations he denies.

Democrats called the investigation a sham. Republicans said it was thorough.

The investigation was opened after Dr Christine Blasey Ford, a California professor, testified last week that she had been sexually assaulted at a house party by Kavanaugh when she was 15 years old and he was 17. She said Kavanaugh’s friend Mark Judge was in the room cheering the future judge on. Kavanaugh vehemently denied the account.

The FBI interviewed Judge. They also interviewed the second woman to accuse Kavanaugh of assault, Deborah Ramirez, a former classmate of Kavanaugh’s at Yale who said he exposed himself to her at a dorm party. Kavanaugh also denied that accusation.

Senators spent Thursday reviewing a closely held FBI report on its findings. The judiciary committee chairman, Chuck Grassley, said the report contained “nothing that we didn’t already know”. The White House thought the report vindicated Kavanaugh, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The limited FBI investigation was proposed by the Republican senator Jeff Flake last week as a way to ensure the Senate handled Ford’s allegations – and protesters’ concerns – responsibly. Democrats called for a thorough investigation.

Was the investigation thorough?

Democrats and some Republican figures – though no Republican senators – are saying that the investigation was not at all thorough. They say the FBI failed to speak with dozens of potential witnesses. Here’s a breakdown:

The Ford incident

Ford herself was not interviewed. Nor was Kavanaugh. In a letter to the FBI, lawyers for Ford said: “We are profoundly disappointed that after the tremendous sacrifice she made in coming forward, those directing the FBI investigation were not interested in seeking the truth.”

They submitted a list of at least 22 people willing to speak with the FBI who might have been able to provide relevant testimony. None were contacted.

'You are not alone': your reaction to Christine Blasey Ford's testimony Read more

The Ramirez incident

Lawyers for Ramirez sent the FBI a list of more than 20 people who might be able to corroborate her story. None appear to have been contacted. One former suitemate of Kavanaugh, Kenneth G Appold, told the New Yorker that he remembered hearing about the incident at the time. He was not interviewed.

Possible false statements

Multiple people have stepped forward in the past week to say that Kavanaugh misled the Senate about his youthful drinking and other details. In a piece for Slate, former Kavanaugh roommate James Roche said Kavanaugh “stood up under oath and lied about his drinking and about the meaning of words in his yearbook”, which Roche said referred to sexual activity despite Kavanaugh’s denials.

On Thursday, the New Jersey senator Robert Menendez called the FBI inquiry “a bullshit investigation”.

What else has happened?

Donald Trump mocked Ford, who admitted to not remembering certain details of the alleged assault, at a campaign-style rally on Tuesday with a question-and-answer patter that brought cheers from a crowd in Southaven, Mississippi.

“How did you get home?” Trump said, echoing a question Ford was asked by the committee. “I don’t remember,” the president said.

“How did you get there? ‘I don’t remember.’ Where is the place? ‘I don’t remember.’ How many years ago was it? ‘I don’t know.’ What neighborhood was it? ‘I don’t know.’ Where’s the house? ‘I don’t know.’”

Kavanaugh's angry testimony raises doubts over future impartiality Read more

Trump concluded the riff by lamenting the personal cost to Kavanaugh of Ford’s allegations and by insinuating that Ford was part of a partisan conspiracy. “They destroy people; these are really evil people,” Trump said.

Last Saturday, meanwhile, Matt Damon sent up Kavanaugh on Saturday Night Live.

Late on Thursday, Kavanaugh took the unusual move of publishing an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal titled “I am an independent, impartial judge.” The piece sought to address concerns about his demeanor after he repeatedly lashed out in Senate testimony and blamed the pressure on him over his alleged past violent conduct on the Clintons.

“I was very emotional last Thursday, more so than I have ever been,” Kavanaugh wrote. “I might have been too emotional at times. I know that my tone was sharp, and I said a few things I should not have said.”

Does it look like he’ll be confirmed?

It’s close. If the final vote reflects Friday’s cloture vote (to end the debate), Kavanaugh will be confirmed. If only one senator who voted to end debate switches sides to oppose Kavanaugh, he will be confirmed. But the situation remains fluid and hard to predict.

Is Justice Kavanaugh a fait accompli?

The activists on Capitol Hill don’t think so.