Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll of the week

Democratic prospects to win the House in 2018 look strong, in part because many incumbent House Republicans are in liberal-leaning states like California and New York. But the Senate has always been harder for Democrats; 10 of the party’s incumbent senators are up for re-election in states that President Trump won in 2016. There is a considerable possibility that Democrats, who currently hold 49 seats, could flip Arizona and Nevada but still not win control of the Senate because of losses by Democratic incumbents in heavily Republican states like Indiana.

So how are those Democrats doing? According to two polls released this week, the state of Senate Democrats in Trumpland is … so-so.

In Florida, a new Quinnipiac poll has the Democrat, Sen. Bill Nelson, ahead of Republican Gov. Rick Scott, who has not formally declared his candidacy for the Senate race but is widely expected to run. Nelson’s lead is 46 percent to 42 percent. (The Florida survey was conducted amid the debate in the Sunshine State about potential policy changes in the wake of the school shooting in Parkland, Florida, which could affect the results in unpredictable ways.) In North Dakota, a Gravis Marketing survey shows Democrat Heidi Heitkamp leading the GOP candidate, U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer, 43 percent to 40 percent. (Cramer has been embraced by GOP leaders, and other Republican challengers withdrew from the race after Cramer declared.)

Those two Democratic incumbents are both ahead. But those are very narrow margins, and it’s very early. The safest bet: These races are likely to be competitive, and Democrats could lose either or both of them.

Our preference would be to look at how other red-state Democrats are doing for clues about their prospects as a group. Senate races, particularly in states that are similar politically or demographically, tend to be somewhat correlated. In other words, don’t be surprised if the same party wins Missouri and Indiana, or Nevada and Arizona. But it’s hard to assess the broader picture for red-state Democrats because there haven’t been many polls in the other eight races. Still, the core dynamic in those contests is the same as in Florida and North Dakota: Trump is unpopular overall, and the president’s party generally loses seats in the House and Senate during midterm elections. Is that dynamic enough for Democrats to win in states that are broadly conservative?

Other polling nuggets

Trump’s approval rating

Trump’s job approval rating is at 40.6 percent, while his disapproval rating is at 54.1 percent. Last week, his approval rating was 40.6 percent, compared with a disapproval rating of 53.9 percent.

The generic ballot

The Democrats hold a 46.4 percent to 38.4 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot this week. Last week, Democrats were up 47.5 percent to 38.7 percent.