March 21, 2011 – R.S. De France

We see it all the time. Bad seasons often lead to coaching changes. The average tenure for an NBA Head Coach is only 3.2 seasons. Legends like Phil Jackson (in his 12th season with the Lakers) and Jerry Sloan (with Utah for 23 years) and Gregg Popovich (16th season with the Spurs) are the exceptions, not the rule. So, who’s on the chopping block once the regular season ends?

The odds of an NBA Head Coach being at the helm for 10 or more seasons are 1 in 15 (“Head Coach? Don’t Let the Door Hit You on the Way Out”).

The uncertainty of next season—and the likelihood of a lockout—makes it even more likely that some of these excellent coaches may be let go.

10. Byron Scott

Byron Scott Cleveland Cavaliers 13-54 (’11) 8-25 at home Last in East 1st in East (’10) 61-21 (’10), lost James .579 playoffs (Scott) 10 yrs of experience Back-to-back Finals (’02-’03)

Losing LeBron James right after taking the Head Coaching job, Byron Scott has been in a tough spot all season. Clearly, few people, other than maybe Dan Gilbert, expected more out of this team. At times, though, the season has seemed to wear on their new coach, especially in that historic loss to the Los Angeles Lakers after which Scott said his team was “scared.” If he does leave, there may be a position opening in L.A.

9. Flip Saunders

Flip Saunders Washington Wizards 16-50 (’11) 15-20 at home 2nd to last in East 2nd to last in East (’10) 26-56 (’10) .558 (Saunders in Minnesota)

The Wizards are 1-30 on the road this season. Usually, that’s a symptom of a younger team. Maybe no need to pull the trigger on getting a new coach, maybe just some fresh talent, but who knows how management sees it.

8. Kurt Rambis

Kurt Rambis Minnesota Timberwolves 17-52 (’11) 12-23 at home 2nd to last in West Last in West (’10) 15-67 (’10) 0-3 in Overtime (’11) 4 finals + 2 titles as Assistant with Lakers Degree in Psychology

A recent report says Rambis may be done in Minnesota.

I hope Rambis’ tenure in Minnesota does not end by putting much blame on the coach. Critics predicted that after losing Al Jefferson in the off-season, this would be a difficult season for the Wolves. Surprisingly, they are the best rebounding team in the NBA. The Wolves are also top ten in blocked shots and points per game. Although it’s too bad they lost Corey Brewer, this team has shown signs of improvement this season. Also, they will end up with a better record than last season.

7. Erik Spoelstra

Erik Spoelstra Miami Heat 46-22 (’11) 25-10 at home 47-35 (’10) Started as Head Coach in 2008 2nd in East (’11) 5th in East (’10) .549 in 1st 2 seasons with Heat 16 years with the Heat Organization

Spoelstra’s job seems to be in jeopardy every time the Heat has a losing streak. Given his years of service to the organization, I hope we do not see another Van Gundy situation. It does already appear that Spoelstra is a good coach in this league, but is he the right man to lead this team to a title?

Although even LeBron James himself said it was not intentional, the way he chest-bumped Spoelstra earlier in the season indicates that James has little, or no, respect for Spoelstra.

The Bump:

In slow motion, you can detect more of James’ intent:

Even after the bump, you can see James push his elbow out just to make sure his coach felt the bump.

James slammed into Coach Spoelstra almost like the way you see two strangers collide on the busy streets of New York City. I’m just saying, can you see James bumping Pat Riley, Phil Jackson, or Larry Brown like that?

6. Avery Johnson

Avery Johnson New Jersey Nets 22-44 (’11) 18-17 at home 12-70 (’10) NBA Finals, Dallas Mavericks 2006 (Johnson) 12th in East (’11) Last in East (’10)

Now that the Nets have signed Deron Williams, their best point guard since acquiring Jason Kidd in 2001-2002, Coach Johnson should clearly have more time with this group, as currently constructed. They have already made some improvements from last year’s debacle of a season.

5. Jay Triano

Jay Triano Toronto Raptors 18-49 (’11) 13-22 at home 40-42 (’10), Lost Bosh 13th in East (’11) 9th in East (’10)

After losing Chris Bosh in free agency, the Raptors have had few pieces and low expectations. But, a good manager-coach relationship may be the biggest factor in Triano remaining as Head Coach. Even though, usually, when a team loses like this one has, it’s time to change things up. Like the Flip Saunders situation, this may be more an issue of not having the right pieces, more than the right leader.

4. John Kuester

John Kuester Detroit Pistons 24-44 (’11) 17-17 at home 27-55 (’10) 11th in East (’11) 12th in East (’10)

Player-coach relationships seem a bit tenuous on this team. First, it was Rip Hamilton not playing. Then came the infamous player-walkout from a game, leaving the Pistons with 6 players. Since then, Tracy McGrady is reported to now having issues with the coach. Over the season, the coach has reportedly clashed with Tayshaun Prince, McGrady, Hamilton, Ben Wallace, and Chris Wilcox. Not often do you see a player protest like that. We are clearly looking at a somewhat dysfunctional team.

3. Scott Skiles

Scott Skiles Milwaukee Bucks 26-41 (’11) 17-17 at home 46-36 (’10) 10th in East (’11) 6th in East (’10)

Skiles’ job may not be in any immediate danger because of (a) his success in leading them to the playoffs last season and (b) injuries to key personnel like starting center Andrew Bogut who has played in 54 of 66 games. Still, even though he is playing, he is limited. Likewise, former All-star and Olympian Michael Redd has not had a healthy season since 2007-2008.

2. Paul Westphal

Paul Westphal Sacramento Kings 16-50 (’11) 9-26 at home 25-57 (’10) 0-5 in Overtime Last in West (’11) 2nd to last in West (’10)

With a precipitous move to Anaheim (and a possible name change to the Royals) on the horizon, it would not surprise me if expenses are cut even further through a series of front office moves.

1. Vinny Del Negro

Vinny Del Negro Los Angeles Clippers 26-43 (’11) 18-16 at home 29-53 (’10) 0-4 in Overtime 12th in West (’11) 12th in West (’10)

Although I remember Del Negro fondly from his playing days, with All-star Blake Griffin playing out of his mind for most of the season, the Clippers have to find a way to squeeze out more wins!

It’s hard to see good coaches in bad situations, especially when we know they can help very good teams. Aside from Kuester, Spoelstra, and Triano—about whom I will withhold judgment until they have a bit more experience as NBA Head Coaches—all the coaches here are solid, if not excellent. But does it mean they won’t be asked to leave? A looming lockout plays in heavily here.

Coaches take a lot of, perhaps, unnecessary blame in these situations. What do you think? Will any of these coaches have to take the fall for his team’s underwhelming performance?

Rob S. De France is a College and University instructor of English Composition living in Los Angeles. He has a B.A. in English and an M.A. in Rhetoric, Composition, and Writing. De France has played, coached, and officiated competitive high school basketball in California for many years. Recently, De France, his wife, and another colleague started an internationally read magazine at Shwibly.com.