London has, in the words of one urban planner, come to "a crossroads" in its transit future.

On Wednesday, city staff will release its recommended list of local transit projects to go forward in applications for $374 million in senior government funding.

The list may — or may not — include elements of the controversial bus rapid transit plan (BRT). Approving non-BRT projects could, in an indirect way, unravel the transit plan that has been five years and $11 million in the making.

Although council approved BRT's routes in May 2017, the plan stands to be picked apart now because its support is split among the new group of 14 councillors elected in October. Mayor Ed Holder is also not in favour of the plan as it's currently drawn up. So, instead of continuing with the plan as a whole, staff will put a host of different transit projects on the table.

BRT is a $500-million deal, originally slated to be paid for with the senior government money plus $130 million from city hall, most of that in charges to developers. The BRT plan calls for buses to travel in dedicated lanes in two corridors that intersect in the downtown core and connect it with London's outlying areas.

No 'rapid' transit without dedicated lanes: expert

An urban planning expert who spoke to CBC News said any transit plan that does not include dedicated transit lanes for buses — a controversial aspect of BRT — will fall far short of delivering "rapid" transit for London.

"The buses have to have dedicated lanes or it's not BRT, it's just a bus route," said Brent Toderian, a Vancouver-based urban planner who advised the city on ReThink London, a process that laid the ground work for the current London Plan. Rapid transit is an essential element of the London Plan's blueprint for intensification in the core as a way to limit sprawl outside of the city.

Toderian said buses in regular traffic lanes generally fail to achieve "modal shift" — transit speak for getting people to bike, walk or use transit. London's current transit usage is driven by post-secondary students, who get transit passes as part of their student fees. Students account for about half of the London Transit Commission's two million monthly rides, and ridership plummets between April and September as this graphic illustrates:

This graphic illustrates London Transit's reliance on students for ridership. An average of more than two million monthly rides drops to just over a million in the summer months, when most students are away. (London Transit Commission)

According to a 2016 survey, only five per cent of London's work-related trips during the busy peak p.m. period were taken on transit.

Council support shaky

Ward 6 Coun. Phil Squire in one of a handful of BRT opponents on council.

The proposed system's northern leg would run along Richmond Street in the heart of his ward, with the middle two traffic lanes becoming bus-only. Squire worries that this will clog Richmond during rush hour and increase cut-through traffic on Old North streets that run parallel to Richmond.

Squire, who also chairs the city's civic works committee, doesn't agree moving BRT out of dedicated transit lanes undermines the entire concept.

"The whole idea that you're going to see a massive modal shift from other forms of transit to BRT is suspect, quite frankly," he said. "In other places they've done it, they haven't seen that."

Ward 12 Coun. Elizabeth Peloza is a BRT-backer who worries that picking out the less controversial elements of the BRT plan will lead to a fragmented system that won't fully meet the needs of London, a city of 384,000 people that's expected to add 77,000 more by 2035.

"I'm open to hearing other councillors' concerns for their wards, I'm just concerned that if we go the à la carte option, bus bays and wider roads aren't going to fix our traffic issues."

Ward 2 Coun. Shawn Lewis doesn't support the previous council's "all or nothing" approach.

Instead of launching BRT citywide, he'd prefer introducing it more slowly — perhaps in one corridor such as Wellington street — as a way to prove its merits and grow ridership. Like Squire, he believes running the northern leg on Richmond and through Western University isn't workable.

London's BRT plan as it's drawn up now: 22 kilometres of dedicated bus-only lanes. But support for this plan is split on the city council elected in October. (Supplied photo)

"I would rather do one piece and do it right and show people how it works than to try and do the whole system at once and have it be an abject failure," he said. "London tried to do it all at once and the community is not convinced that it's going to pay off. There's a lot of concern that it's going to be a white elephant."

The process from here

It's in this climate that city staff will put forward its list of transit projects to go into the application for senior government money. If there's anything unanimous about transit at London city hall these days, it's that no one wants to dither so long that October's federal election comes with the cash still on the table.

The public will get its chance to weigh in at a public participation meeting at Centennial Hall on March 20. The list of projects will come to the strategic priorities and policy committee for a vote on March 25 that will be ratified by full council the next night. March 31 is set as the final date for the transit projects to be submitted to senior governments for approval.

Toderian says the direction council takes over the next few weeks will be crucial.

"What's clear to me observing London from afar is London is at a crossroads," he said. "London is right in the middle of deciding what kind of city it's going to be. The London Plan without a smart strategy for public transit won't fully succeed. So this is a key decision for the future of the city."