AUSTIN — Republican big shots, current and past, are choosing sides in a ferocious Texas House runoff with early voting beginning Monday.

In the four-county district, stretching from Hillsboro in the west to Palestine in the east, the big names — Gov. Greg Abbott, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry — are for Thomas McNutt, the candidate most critical of retiring Speaker Joe Straus.

But former officeholders from the area, such as former state Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples and several former state representatives, including former Insurance Commissioner Elton Bomer and former Perry adviser Cliff Johnson, are backing political newcomer Cody Harris.

They're stressing that Harris, a ranching real estate broker from Palestine, has the deepest roots and won't waltz with tea party-aligned groups that support McNutt, whom they note is a wealthy executive who grew up in Highland Park.

The contest is probably the most closely watched of seven GOP runoffs for the Texas House that are on the May 22 ballot. Also on the ballot are congressional primary runoffs in both parties, seven Democratic runoffs for the Texas House and one for the Texas Senate.

Straus or Patrick mold?

The McNutt-Harris battle, though, is especially freighted with symbolism.

The winner is almost a lock to win House District 8 this fall and succeed Straus confidant and eight-term Rep. Byron Cook of Corsicana. After halting or at least slowing a raft of hot-button bills pushed by the Texas GOP's staunchest conservatives, Cook, who now heads the powerful House State Affairs Committee, is retiring.

"This is a race that will help push the balance either towards a speaker closer to the mold of a Joe Straus or closer to the mold of a Dan Patrick," said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones, referring to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.

"It will either strengthen the hand of centrist conservatives when they meet in the Republican caucus to choose the next speaker in late 2018 or early 2019, or it will weaken their hand and strengthen that of movement conservatives as they attempt to elect a speaker with their political values and policy priorities," he said.

At stake is whether the House will continue to frown on a Patrick-backed bill that would have required transgender Texans to use public bathrooms that align with their sex at birth. Last year, much to the relief of business interests, Straus and Cook squelched it.

Also potentially hanging on the outcomes is the House's continued ability to check other initiatives by Patrick and populist conservatives. They include legislation to impose tight limits on county and city property revenue growth and tap state taxpayer dollars to subsidize private-school tuition.

Bathrooms, property taxes

Thomas McNutt, candidate for Texas House of Representatives, District 8, in a photo from his campaign website thomasmcnutt.com

At a candidate forum sponsored by the Corsicana and Navarro County Chamber of Commerce Thursday, McNutt criticized Harris for not giving wholehearted support to the Senate-passed bathroom bill and Abbott's recent proposal for a tighter revenue cap. It would let cities and counties reap up to 4 percent more property tax revenue without a rate-rollback election. The current trigger is 8 percent.

"You cannot get more 'local control' than the voter," said McNutt, who works for his family's renowned fruitcake maker, Collin Street Bakery.

Harris warned Abbott's plan could complicate county agencies' operations. "You can't buy fire trucks when it's necessary," he said.

Harris, who has built a successful real estate company after growing up poor on a leased produce farm, said he's sympathetic with the bathroom bill's aims, to be "protective" of girls and women. But it could cost local governments and school districts money to comply, he said.

"We need a bathroom bill that the state pays for," he said.

Harris said he'd be an effective rural advocate in the Legislature. He said he wouldn't be a robot controlled by certain hard-line conservative groups, such as Empower Texans, that are backing McNutt.

"Dallas doesn't need another voice in Austin," he said, in a swipe at McNutt, who voted in Highland Park as recently as 2014.

McNutt, defensive about charges he's a newcomer, blamed his parents' divorce. He said his father, Bill McNutt, desired "to raise me as a Corsicana Tiger." But a judge's order on "custody took me away into Dallas County," he said.

Switching sides

Bobby Vickery, a Navarro County businessman who couldn't break 40 percent in two earlier GOP primary challenges against Cook, threw his support last time to McNutt. Cook narrowly won the 2016 contest — by 225 votes out of nearly 29,000 cast.

Vickery said Friday, though, that he's backing Harris.

Cody Harris, candidate for Texas House District 8, in a photo from his campaign website, codyfortexas.com

Harris has "good rural values," he said. As a state lawmaker, Harris will concentrate on matters such as soaring college tuition and insufficient school funding that drives up property taxes, not issues such as abortion and immigration, which are largely decided at the federal level, Vickery said.

"McNutt's just rich and thinks the baton should be passed off to him [and] he can buy the seat," he said.

Jordan Berry of Austin, McNutt's campaign consultant, responded that Harris is too moderate for the district.

"Bobby Vickery was right to run against Byron Cook, knowing that Byron Cook and his allies needed to be stopped," Berry said. "Why some personal beef is making him change course, I don't know."

'Trump factor'

The Young Conservatives of Texas, a group backing McNutt, has sent mailers depicting Harris as being backed by liberal teacher groups and special-interest lobbyists in Austin.

"Why is Cody Harris attacking President Trump?" one said. It reproduced a Harris social media post from 2016.

"Why in the HELL would any Conservative vote for this guy?!" Harris wrote over a photo of Trump from that year's hard-fought GOP presidential primary.

Harris spokesman Keats Norfleet said Harris supported Cruz for president.

"Cody strongly supports President Trump's agenda, especially when it comes to cracking down on illegal immigration," he said.

Harris "is proud to be endorsed by the Texas Farm Bureau, community leaders and the local education community," Norfleet said. "To claim he's an Austin insider is laughable."

Several experts said Empower Texans chief Michael Quinn Sullivan and Texas Right to Life leaders Jim and Elizabeth Graham are eager to drive up Harris' negatives.

Unlike Cook, he's a fresh face.

As the district's House member and a key Straus ally, Cook became almost a pincushion. He was under constant attack from anti-abortion activists, who wanted his committee to pass more sweeping abortion restrictions, and conservative activists who said the Legislature should be tougher on immigration and public employee associations.

Rice's Jones said that Harris' past jibes at Trump on social media are a potential opening. Trump is especially popular in East Texas, and the district protrudes east of Interstate 45, he noted.

"One thing to watch for in the runoffs is the 'Trump effect,' " said Dallas-based Republican consultant Kevin Brannon, who has advised a number of staunchly conservative GOP statewide, congressional and legislative candidates.

"If you are a candidate on record with strong anti-Trump statements, those can come back to bite you. President [Donald] Trump is king of the hill among Texas Republicans, especially those who vote in runoffs."

Other battles

Jones said that six of the seven House GOP runoffs pit an establishment-oriented Republican against an insurgent.

In virtually all cases, the insurgent is supported by Midland oilman Tim Dunn, fracking billionaire brothers Farris and Dan Wilks of Cisco and groups they bankroll, such as Empower Texans, Texas Right to Life and the Texas Home School Coalition, he noted.

One is in the San Antonio suburbs, for the seat Straus is giving up. In District 121, Steve Allison is the traditional GOP contender, while Matt Beebe, who twice ran unsuccessfully against the sitting speaker, is the favorite of Empower Texans and Texas Right to Life.

Another is for a seat in the Sherman-Denison area, where eight-term GOP Rep. Larry Phillips is stepping down.

There are three other House GOP runoffs in East Texas and Central Texas. In two of them, Empower Texans and the movement conservatives have a favorite, Jones said. That's not true, though, in Killeen Rep. Scott Cosper's runoff against Brad Buckley, the Rice professor said.

The final House GOP runoff is in an eastern Dallas County district where Republicans, who control 95 of the chamber's 150 seats, are looking for a pickup.

It's currently represented by freshman Democrat Victoria Neave of Dallas. However, she is seen as vulnerable because of a highly publicized drunken driving arrest.

In District 107, which includes parts of Dallas, Lakewood, Mesquite and Garland, the GOP race is between former Navy officer and aviator Joe Ruzicka and businesswoman and lawyer Deanna Metzger. She is receiving help from the anti-Straus groups, while Ruzicka is considered more of a centrist conservative.

Early voting continues through Friday.