The government’s higher education changes face more opposition in the Senate after a key crossbencher, Ricky Muir, revealed he was unlikely to support them. It is a new blow to the policy Tony Abbott put “front and centre” of his 2015 legislative agenda.



Muir sided with the government in December when its controversial changes, which would allow universities to set their own fees and cut public funding, were defeated in the Senate.

He said at the time his vote “was not a vote for deregulation” but “to continue discussion”, but as the government embarked on an $8m advertising campaign to spruik the defeated package and a new round of lobbying to secure its passage this year, it was widely assumed it would secure Muir’s support.

But in an interview with Guardian Australia, the senator said he was unlikely to vote for the package despite concerted lobbying from the government, including a meeting late last year with the prime minister.

Muir said: “The government does not necessarily have my support on this. I’m really not attracted to these ideas, because I can’t vote for something that might make education inaccessible or leave students with unmanageable debts.”

He said Labor’s claim that the government was paving the way for $100,000 degrees “might have been a scare campaign, but some courses could go up to that level”. He had been listening to the concerns of student groups over the summer.

Muir backed the independent senator Nick Xenophon, who has said the government should “press the pause button” on its changes and called for a broad-ranging inquiry into universities similar to one commissioned by the former prime minister Sir Robert Menzies in 1957.

Xenophon acknowledged problems with the sustainability of the existing funding system but said he was unable to vote for the government’s plan, which the Coalition did not put before voters in the 2013 federal election campaign.

“It seems that there needs to be a holistic root-and-branch review of the entire sector and it needs to be an eminent panel of experts respected on both sides of politics and the terms of reference should not predetermine any outcome the government wants,” Xenophon said.

But Xenophon left the door open to supporting temporary fee increases – without deregulation – to provide “short-term relief for universities” while the review completed its work.

Muir said: “I think Nick Xenophon is right, we need to pause and look at this carefully ... I can see higher education needs change and I will look at what the government brings forward, but I think it is curious such big changes were not taken to an election. I’ve been having meetings on this over the break and I am not convinced these reforms should get through the Senate as they stand.”

The fellow crossbench senator Jacqui Lambie said she would not support any higher education changes before the 2016 election and did not support short-term fee increases either.

In December the university proposals were defeated by Labor, the Greens, Xenophon, Lambie and the two Palmer United party (PUP) senators Glenn Lazarus and Dio Wang.

The education minister, Christopher Pyne, credited Muir for voting with the government and three other crossbench senators – Bob Day, David Leyonhjelm and John Madigan – to allow a second-reading debate.

“I needed six votes in the Senate this week; I got four of them,” Pyne said at the time. “I was told several weeks ago I wouldn’t get any of them, and I believe that we are making progress. I’m a great believer in forward momentum.”

Wang has recently indicated he is open to supporting fee deregulation as part of a higher education package, but is yet to respond to questions from Guardian Australia.

Muir’s stance means the government’s package is still set to fail, even if the PUP senators change their position. The bill will be defeated if three or more crossbench senators vote with Labor and the Greens – who are firmly opposed.

On Tuesday the prime minister said the higher education changes were “a very good package and it will be front and centre of the government’s legislative agenda as the parliament begins in a couple of weeks’ time”.

Muir also said he wanted to consider an alternative higher education policy that Labor has said it will unveil later in the year.

Pyne has vowed to continue negotiations with crossbench senators, arguing Labor was yet to outline any credible alternatives.