Amazing as it sounds, the degree of uncertainty has actually increased on the heels of last week's rebound, and the debates running through the Streets, from "Occupy Wall Street" to "My Big Fat Greek Default," have investors at odds with each other. Quelling such emotional behavior takes time, but the emotions that run high at the tail end of market drubbings are almost always the same. We have all probably read the Book, "The Tipping Point," and the Market seems to be at a trough - based emotional tipping point right now. Everyone wants answers, but no one is getting the answers they are looking for, at least not yet, and therefore volatility and debate run rabid through the Streets. In every respect, my reference to The Street is to Wall Street, and to Pennsylvania Avenue. Unfortunately, I find these joined at the hip in the debate that has now gone viral.

"Occupy Wall Street" is something that will grow, and in the years to come I expect this to be a very serious campaign. Now is not the time, but eventually this campaign might become the face of the Greater Depression I have warned about. The U.S. economy, and probably the global economy, as a result are headed towards a Greater Depression, and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it now, as far as I can see. This is inevitable based on simple demographics, and the only saving grace may be China, but China seems to have gotten so far ahead of itself that eventually it too will fall.

Without much debate at all, the only solid promoting market based stability has been the demand from BRIC countries, mostly China, and if that pares back the result will devastate the global economy as we know it today. In my opinion, this is also inevitable in the years ahead. Eventually there will be a material hit to these BRIC economies, and the fragile nature of mature economies will not be able to offset that weakness. This is the road map to the Greater Depression I have warned everyone to expect.

Confidently, if China were to suddenly experience an uncontrolled decline in GDP, global stock markets would collapse, corporate earnings would crumble, the unemployment rate would skyrocket, and the Occupy Wall Street Campaign would increase exponentially.

At some point in the next few years this will be true, and you should prepare for it. That means no longer term investments, I do not care how cheap mortgage rates are. That means no 'buy and hold' investments, not now. "Buy and Hold is Dead" That means we must always be proactive, nimble, and attentive. Obviously choices exist, and you can be nimble on a day to day basis, or on a month-month basis, but proactive strategies are required in this type of environment, because the worst is yet to come.

The question is when will the stuff hit the fan?

Importantly, although I can see it coming, although I believe a Greater Depression is all but assured, I also do not see it happening right now. My target date has always been 2015. This was true when I first developed The Investment Rate, and this time table is based on the findings of the Investment Rate accordingly. This is a comparative timeline, based on the developments that existed in both the Great Depression and Stagflation, each of which were defined down periods in the Investment Rate as well.

During those fragile times the Market experienced wild undulations, similar to what we are seeing today, and yes the bias was down, but there were aggressive increases along the way as well. Remember this relationship while continuing to read: if a market declines from 1000 to 500 it loses 50%, but if it increases from 500 to 1000 it increases 100%. The purpose of pointing this out is to suggest that the upside moves in the market have the ability to offer substantial returns, but it is important to recognize that those returns will not last, because eventually the Market will fall on its face again, during this third major down period in US History.

In addition, even after 2015 these same wild undulations will exist, but the markets will not likely see lower lows after that point. Between now and then I expect they will, but again, not just yet. I am not expecting the Markets to fall below their 2008-2009 lows, and I do not expect China to fall on its face yet. I do recognize the risks, and I also am attentive to developments that may influence such a move sooner than I expected, but thus far those risks do not exist.

To explain further, in the case of utter capitulation and a depression the markets would need to be faced with a peril that cannot be fixed, and investors would need to fear that there was absolutely no way out. That condition, although some people would debate my point of view, does not exist today. Sure, there are risks, and yes, the Market is very volatile, but we all know what is needed to make this look better. First, Europe needs to reach an agreement to protect its banks, put Greece to rest, and become unified. They seem to be heading that way, but there have been no decisions yet so the risks are still high. Second, here in the United States our Government needs to get on the same page, and although they are shunning the jobs bill, and although they continue to bicker and embarrass us as citizens, my insiders are telling me that meaningful progress seems to be being made in the realm of tax and entitlement reform by the bipartisan super committee.

Together, if European woes were to be quelled and corporate America was to have some answers, neither of which has become true yet but neither of which is reasonably too farfetched either, the landscape we are witness to today would be very different. There is a solution to our current problems, something that can materially change the way the economy is perceived today, though it will not materially change the true condition of the economy, but the perception is all that is needed to change sentiment on the Street. If we were on the verge of utter collapse, the opportunity to resolve the issues at hand would not be obvious to anyone.

Instead, the conditions I have outlined are possible, even likely, they have more importantly already begun, and that presents more of a compelling case than it does increase the risk of immediate fallout. Eventually a fallout will come, eventually China will fall and take with it the rest of the World, but my observations not only suggest that China is currently in a controlled slowdown, but my observations tell me that the conditions that will be necessary to realize the Greater Depression I have warned about and that I now feel even more confident in are not yet strong enough to cause that depression. It will come, the risks are clear and everyone knows it now, my concern is that people will again forget these risks. Do not let that happen to you. Remember the risks that exist today, because these risks are not going away; they may change in face or name, they may bring to light different concerns, but if the market and the economy indeed fare better (not good by any means) than they have recently, and my technical observations continue in line with my longer term assessments, we will have an excellent rally in the months ahead, maybe into next July, and then we should brace for another round of the same, maybe slightly worse looking economic malaise.

The true economy is not going to get materially better, but we have the band aids to fix the conditions that exist now. The day will come when the band aids fall off, and the open wounds become infected, but that day, that period in time, is not now in my opinion.