An IMF review of Greece and its vast debt mountain provides a disturbing assessment of its plight. Major reliefs are needed from euro zone countries to put the debt on a sustainable path, the fund argues. The costs of the required concessions are quantified in scores of billions, with execution over decades. And that’s for starters.

As euro zone finance ministers gather today for yet more talks on the Greek riddle, divisions with the IMF have never been deeper. The ministers are poised to release another €10 billion loan to Athens. But German-led resistance to immediate debt relief means that the prospect of a quick reprieve is remote. Thus the IMF’s debt sustainability analysis, released to the world yesterday evening, marks a decisive push by the Washington-based organisation to bring the ministers to sense. High stakes stuff.

The fund has made debt relief a precondition for continued aid to Greece yet Germany, which opposes restructuring, won’t provide aid itself without IMF participation. The IMF argues that Greek targets vis-à-vis economic growth and the primary budget surplus, the surplus before debt-servicing costs, are wholly unrealistic. Loan maturity extensions between 10 and 30 years are needed, as are payment deferrals between six and 20 years. Further, a fixed interest rate no greater than 1.5 per cent is required until 2040.

In cash terms, the figures are huge. On its own, the fixing of interest rates would cost between €31 billion and €42 billion. In addition, member states would have to underwrite the ESM rescue fund for any losses associated with fixed interest or any similar commitment. If all of that does not work, the IMF says Athens would in effect need interest-free loans until 2050.

Berlin has dangled some light relief but only in 2018, when elections next year are done. As a prelude to deep longer-term concession, the IMF insists the next tranche of Greek aid should now be granted on softer terms. Another showdown beckons, but a definitive solution seems as elusive as ever.