It's not how things were supposed to pan out.

Instead, Trump and his advisers bet that, by getting tough, they could win concessions, and in so doing somewhat level an international playing field seen as unfairly tilted against US interests. It might even have worked. At least initially, there were signs of trading partners giving ground. German car makers, huge beneficiaries of differential import tariffs between Europe and America, have even suggested that all European tariffs on American automobiles be abolished. But the window of opportunity for serious talks on international trade reform seems fast to be receding. We slip, ever more irredeemably, towards outright war.

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Who is likely to come off worst in the ensuing battle of wills and tariffs? Already the US is beginning to feel the negative consequences of its policies.

Faced by the rising cost of its inputs and retaliatory tariffs from Europe on its outputs, Harley-Davidson, an American icon, has threatened to move production offshore. Mmm. Isn't the purpose of protectionism to keep things onshore? Soya bean farmers cannot realistically shift elsewhere, but they can vote, and even if Trump supporters, they are unlikely to take kindly to the loss of their Chinese markets.