The Sweet 16.

For the second year in a row, the Hoosiers have advanced beyond the Round of 32 on their quest to hang banner number six.

Last March, however, they ran into the eventual tournament champion, the Kentucky Wildcats, in the round of 16. In what was a wild game offensively, IU battled Kentucky for the entire 40 minutes, ultimately coming up short, 102-90.

A year later, the Hoosiers are back in the Sweet 16 (with Kentucky nowhere to be seen), looking to finish what they started.

Opponent Profile: The Syracuse Orange

Unlike last season, the Hoosiers are now one of the top-seeded tournament favorites, taking on the 4th-seeded Syracuse Orange, the 5th overall team in the Big East. Including their two tournament victories, the 28-9 Orange are the 12th-rated team overall according to statistician Ken Pomeroy.

They have an adjusted offense that ranks 10th nationally, and an adjusted defense that ranks 19th.

Since February 23rd, the Orange have played against seven opponents in the RPI Top 25 (all were ranked in the AP polls as well), and went just 2-5 over that span with narrow wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown, both of whom were eliminated in the Round of 64.

Over the course of the regular season, Syracuse was 6-8 against the RPI Top 50, but only one of those wins came outside of the Big East, and that was their season opener against San Diego State. While they did have eight losses against the RPI Top 50, and one loss against the RPI Top 100 (at Villanova), only one of those losses came outside of the Big East as well: a late December loss to none other than the Temple Owls.

Much like Indiana, the majority of Syracuse’s resume is built on games won and lost inside of their conference. And while the Big East isn’t as strong as the B1G, they still have three teams remaining in the NCAA tournament, including the overall favorite, the Louisville Cardinals.

The Orange have proven that they can beat the best, as demonstrated in their 70-68 January 19th victory over the Cardinals in Louisville. But they’ve struggled on offense at times, logging 39- and 46-point performances in two losses against Georgetown, and failing to score at least 60 points in nine games this season.

Despite this, they still average a respectable 1.08 points per possession while holding opponents to .90 PPP. The Hoosiers, by comparison, average 1.17 PPP while holding opposing teams to .91 PPP.

Looking at our Four Factors, we can see how these teams measure up in terms of shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throws:

Four Factors: Syracuse vs. Indiana

eFG% TO% OR% FTR INDIANA 55.20% 19.00% 39.25% 35.14% SYRACUSE 49.28% 19.02% 39.54% 25.00%

Somewhat surprisingly, the Hoosiers nearly lead the way in all four categories.

Indiana is a much better shooting team, ranking 8th in effective field goal percentage whereas Syracuse ranks a rather average 135th.

Both teams turn the ball over on 19% of their possessions (if that number seems a bit high, it’s because it is) while also collecting offensive rebounds at roughly the same clip.

The Orange actually rank 19th nationally in free throw attempts (Indiana is #2), but have a much lower free throw rate because they only make 67.5% of their shots from the charity stripe.

Statistically, Indiana is clearly the superior team, but as we’ve seen in March, that’s hardly a comforting notion — just ask Georgetown and Florida Gulf Coast.

Players to Watch

Looking at specific individuals, the two Syracuse players to watch out for are C.J. Fair and Michael Carter-Williams.

C.J. Fair, the team’s leading scorer and rebounder at 14.5 PPG, and 6.9 RPG, is a 6’8 forward who shoots the three ball at an impressive 49.2%. Because of his size and ability to stretch the floor, Christian Watford will likely have the difficult assignment of defending Fair.

The Orange’s leader in assists (7.6 per game) and steals (2.7 per game) is Michael Carter-Williams, an extremely versatile 6’6 guard who creates a huge number of matchup problems. If Indiana plays a man defense, Oladipo will likely have the opportunity to try and slow down Syracuse’s best facilitator.

Syracuse doesn’t have any starters smaller than 6’6, except for guard Brandon Triche who comes in at 6’4. This poses a variety of defensive issues for Hoosier starters Yogi Ferrell and Jordan Hulls (and possibly Oladipo), who will be giving up at least several inches on just about every opposing player on the court. Look for Indiana head coach Tom Crean to switch to a zone if he believes that Syracuse’s size is a problem for Indiana’s smaller guards.



If they want to advance, the Hoosiers will need to get back on track offensively against Syracuse. Despite their taller guards, Cody Zeller has several inches on Syracuse big man Rakeem Christmas.

Look for Indiana to go to Zeller early and often as they work their offense from the inside-out. If the Hoosiers can have a decent shooting performance while competing on the glass, they’ll be able to get past the Syracuse Orange en route to the Elite Eight.

Prediction: Indiana 71, Syracuse 66