The presidents may find a lot in common, both having ridden waves of populism to beat their countries’ political elite

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

It’s the final act of Donald Trump’s marathon Asia tour and it could be the showstopper.

Touching down in the Philippine capital Manila on Sunday, the US president arrived in a country run by a man regularly described as the “Donald Trump of Asia” for his shock rise to power and volatile temperament.

Timeline Trump's tour of Asia Show Hide The US president must grapple with the thorny issues of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions as well as trade wars in Asia on one of the trickiest diplomatic tours in decades. Japan Trump warns of the North Korean threat and says Japanese orders for US-made military equipment will help keep Japan safe. Read more South Korea The North Korea rhetoric softens as the president suggests he is open to diplomatic efforts to resolve the nuclear crisis. Read more China Xi Jinping rolls out the red carpet for Trump, who lavishes praise on his host and blames his American predecessors for the "huge" trade deficit between the US and China. Read more Vietnam Trump swings through Da Nang for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting, abruptly ending his diplomatic streak with a tirade against “violations, cheating or economic aggression” in the region. Read more Philippines On the final leg of his tour, Trump hails his great relationship with President Rodrigo Duterte, who shares some populist and mercurial characteristics with his guest, and stands accused of masterminding a brutal crackdown on drugs. Read more

Months before Trump was elected, Rodrigo Duterte proved the strength of anti-establishment populism in the Philippines by taking the presidency in a campaign filled with black-and-white promises to wipe out crime by killing drug pushers.

And when his administration did indeed start killing hundreds of suspected drug pushers and alleged addicts, US-Philippine relations – historically one of the strongest alliances in Asia – plummeted. At its lowest point, Duterte called former president Barack Obama a “son of a whore” for criticising his human rights record.

For Trump, however, the Philippines is bringing out the red carpet.

The Guardian view on Trump in Asia: brace yourselves | Editorial Read more

“President Trump will definitely receive a very warm welcome in Manila,” said the foreign affairs secretary, Alan Peter Cayetano, who added relations were on an “upward vector”.

On Saturday, at the regional Apec summit in Vietnam, the two leaders were introduced for the first time before a scheduled bilateral meeting in Manila. “Albeit short, it was very warm and cordial,” presidential spokesman Harry Roque said when asked by the Guardian if the pair had rapport.

Oliver Holmes (@olireports) First meet between @realDonaldTrump and Philippines leader. Duterte’s spox described it as “warm”. pic.twitter.com/18sovP8Kuz

For the US leader, the Philippines visit is a chance to show he can win back estranged allies, said Richard Javad Heydarian, the author of The Rise of Duterte.

“He also sees in Duterte a fellow populist and decisive leader besieged by liberal internationalist elite, so there is some element of personal rapport and ideological solidarity,” he added. “I expect a convivial hobnob between the two in Manila.”

That is possible because Trump appears to have abandoned his predecessor’s focus on rights, even praising Duterte’s bloody crackdown by saying he was doing an “unbelievable job on the drug problem”.

Trump does not appear to care, as Obama did, with “advancing rule of law globally and advancing democracy globally”, according to Christopher Primiano, a teaching fellow based at the China campus of the University of Nottingham.

“I just don’t think Trump is interested in any of this – these are non-issues for Trump,” he said. “Trump and Duterte, given that both of them are authoritarian in terms of their governance, have much more in common than say Duterte and Obama.”

Human rights groups condemn Trump's 'warm rapport' with Philippine leader Read more

There is a lot of work to be done. Duterte has moved the Philippines swiftly away from its former colonial power on several fronts. Increasingly looking to Beijing and Moscow as new backers, especially for weapons shipments, he ended joint war games with the US military last year.

“He has pivoted to Asia, veered away from [the] traditional political relationship between the Philippines and the United States,” Duterte’s spokesman Roque said.

And in steps to boost ties with China, the 72-year-old leader has played down territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which has worried Washington as it wants the vital shipping route to remain outside of Chinese control.

However, the academic Primiano warns, there is one major caveat that makes it hard to concretely predict a jovial US visit to Manila.

“Trump is a complete wild card,” he said. “He says one thing one minute, maybe he’ll tweet something this morning, and then say something totally different in the afternoon.”

Rodrigo Duterte: the president warlord of the Philippines | Observer profile Read more

Philippine protesters are preparing to burn an effigy of Trump on Monday outside the US embassy, which could sour the US leader, especially at the end of a tiring trip.

Duterte, too, has sent mixed messages and has a famously changeable mood, even berating close allies at a moment’s notice.

The Philippine president had promised to be on his best behaviour as the host of the Association of South-east Asian Nations leaders’ summit, saying he would deal with Trump “in the most righteous way, welcome him as an important leader”.

But he has not always been so diplomatic. During the Philippine election campaign, he shunned the Trump comparison, saying the then-candidate was a “bigot” for his proposals to ban Muslims entering the US.

Q&A Why is Duterte's war on drugs controversial? Show Hide The war on drugs waged by Rodrigo Duterte is controversial because of its exceptionally high death toll, concerns that innocent people have been killed and a sense that the president and authorities are acting with impunity. According to the latest government statistics, 3,967 “drug personalities” died in anti-drug operations between July 2016 and 25 October 2017. Another 2,290 people were murdered in drug-related crimes, while thousands of other deaths remain unsolved, according to government data. Duterte won last year’s presidential elections after promising to eradicate illegal drugs with an unprecedented crackdown that would lead to up to 100,000 people being killed. Critics at home and abroad say he is orchestrating a campaign of extrajudicial mass murder, carried out by corrupt police and hired vigilantes. He at times denies inciting police or others to kill, but also consistently generates headlines for his abusive language and incendiary comments defending the drug war. Photograph: Aaron Favila/AP

And despite being invited by Trump to visit Washington, Duterte said in July he would never visit the “lousy” US after Congressman James McGovern announced he would protest any such trip.

Some Philippine media reports even suggest Duterte might not meet with Trump one-on-one at all during the visit, which could certainly lead to an outburst from the prickly US leader.

“[Trump] is completely unpredictable,” said Primiano. “We all need to keep that in mind.”

