Chelsea’s nine-point lead was not built on victories against their closest rivals – but on their record of only dropping two points against the bottom 15 clubs

The Premier League title race looks to be over. Chelsea effectively ended Arsenal’s slim chance of becoming champions on Saturday and Liverpool’s defeat to Hull means that only Tottenham and Manchester City are within 10 points of the leaders. Antonio Conte’s team dominated Arsenal at Stamford Bridge, securing some revenge for their 3-0 defeat at the Emirates earlier in the season, but they still don’t boast the best record of teams within the mini-league in the top six.

Given that matches between the top six are often billed as make or break, it poses the question of just how decisive these “big games” are in the title race. This season, it has been Chelsea’s record against teams below the top six that has set them apart. They have dropped just two points against teams from fifth downwards, with Swansea City the only club in the bottom 15 to have taken points from them. Since that 2-2 draw at the Liberty Stadium in September, Chelsea have played 12 games against teams outside the top six and won all of them.

By contrast, Liverpool are winning the top-six mini-league – they have dropped just eight points against their five title rivals this season – but they have dropped the most points when facing teams from lower down the table (18). As if to illustrate the point, their four defeats this season have come against Hull, Swansea, Bournemouth and Burnley – all teams in the bottom half of the table.

There has been very little to choose between the top teams this season in their matches against each other. The difference between the best performers in top-six matches, Liverpool – who have dropped eight points against their closest rivals – and worst, Arsenal – who have dropped 13 – is just five points. Much more crucial has been the difference between Chelsea’s record against the weaker teams in the league (two points dropped) and Liverpool’s (18 points dropped).

When Leicester City won the title last season, they also had the best record against teams outside of the top six – they only dropped 17 points in their 28 matches against the bottom 14 clubs. Arsenal won the mini-league among the top six, surrendering just 14 points to their five title rivals, but they let themselves down against the weaker teams, losing to West Ham, West Brom and Swansea. Again, the so-called “big games” were not the all-important encounters they are often billed as. In fact, Leicester’s record against top-six clubs was no better than Southampton’s – and they finished sixth.

When Chelsea won the title under José Mourinho in the 2014-15 season they picked up 17 of the 30 points available in matches against the other top teams, but Louis van Gaal’s Manchester United – who finished fourth – won more (18). Van Gaal’s team did well against their closest rivals but they dropped a whopping 32 points against teams outside the top six; Chelsea, by contrast, only dropped 14 points in those 28 matches.

The same pattern can be seen in the 2013-14 season, when Manchester City won the league under Manuel Pellegrini. City picked 19 points from 10 matches against their closest challengers; Chelsea – who finished third – won 23 from the 30 available. Again, results against teams further down the table proved decisive, with City only missing out on nine points against the bottom 14 sides, compared to 25 dropped by Chelsea.

When Manchester United won the league in 2012-13, you guessed it, they didn’t have the best record in top-six clashes. In fact, they only won 14 points from the 30 available. Chelsea led the way with 20, but Alex Ferguson was able to secure another league title in his final season at Old Trafford because his team only dropped nine points against the bottom 14 clubs; Chelsea dropped 29, proving that flat-track bullies tend to win the Premier League.

You have to go back to Manchester City’s triumph in the 2011-12 season under Roberto Mancini to find league champions who also picked up the most points against their closest challengers. So, in each of the last five seasons, the champions (and champions elect) have picked up the most points against teams outside of the top six but never the most against those teams within it.

Perhaps it’s only logical that a record against 14 teams would be more important than a record against five teams, but it shows that those so-called “must-win” matches against title rivals aren’t so critical after all.

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