Addressing the Criticisms of Moyes's Performance at Everton

By:: 24/05/2013

This is a look at Moyes's performance as the Everton manager over the past 11 years. I have specifically targetted some of the criticism aimed at him.

The points in particular are:

Available resources.

Moyes in the transfer market.

Style of play.

Tactical abilities (including team tactics, team selection and substitutions).

Results against top teams.

Blooding in youngsters.

Poor results.

No silverware.

Progress made under Moyes.

Resources

Based on both transfer money spent and wage budget, Everton have overperformed for all but two seasons under Moyes.

Everton have been the 11th biggest spender in the Premier League since it's inauguration in 1992. But what's more interesting is to see the spending under David Moyes and compare with others. The transfer league site (link at bottom) lists the transfer league table from 2003 onwards, which is a pretty good indicator even though it misses the beginning of Moyes's time.

In this table we are 15th behind such big-spenders as Fulham, Stoke and West Ham.

Wage bill has at the same time been around 10th highest. Everton have finished below this only twice during Moyes's reign (17th in 2004 and 11th in 2006) while finishing 4th, 5th (twice) and not finishing below 8th since.

So it's clear that Moyes has been at a huge disadvantage during his time compared to the competition and has clearly overachieved. Anyone can check which teams seem to have underachieved and which overachieved based on money from those tables. Funnily enough Everton has been the only real gatecrasher in the money league.

Transfer market

Most people, even the detractors, agree that Moyes has done mostly very well in the transfer market. I won't delve too deeply into this but if someone feels the need to pick the bad signings I'd like to hear about a manager at this level who has a better track record. Ferguson signed such illuminaries as Bebe and Veron and many others who were more or less waste of money but is he considered a poor buyer? Wenger's record isn't 100% either and he is far worse with cheap buys (see the link at the bottom for an analysis).

Even the less succesful signings such as Bilyaletdinov recouped most of their money when they were sold on:

Beattie: bought for 6.5M, sold for 4.0M.

Bilyaletdinov: bought for 9.0M, sold for 6.0M.

Johnson: bought 8.6M, for sold for 10.5M.

Kroldrup, Yakubu and Wright are probably his biggest misses, and Yakubu had an excellent first season.

In contrast, some players were sold with a big profit (Lescott, Arteta), are still in the squad but valued much higher (Baines, Jagielka, Fellaini, Mirallas, Coleman), were sold with a modest profit or played the best part of their career at the club (Cahill, for instance).

How many managers can boast to have signed players of the calibre of Bent (450k), Cahill (1.5M), Arteta (2.0M), Gibson (2.0M), Baines (6.0M), Jagielka (4.5M) and Coleman (nominal)? The list is not very long.

Moyes was very thorough when selecting players, personally attending in some cases 10-20 matches to see a certain player before buying. This has been critical with a team that can't do bad buys without them having a long-lasting effect. Big teams (even our neighbours) can just bury a bad player in the reserves and buy another.

Tactics and style of play

Everton did not play defensively this season unlike some seem to think. The team actually created the fourth most chances in the Premier League. More than Arsenal and Manchester United. We also held the ball more and had more touches in the danger areas than Chelsea, ManU and Spurs.

People are intent on talking about 4-5-1 as if it proves something. These formations do not show how attacking or defending a team is or even how the team plays. They are an oversimplification that are more misleading than actually giving any info. Everton spent a lot of time in possession in opponent's half and was one of the most creative sides–these are the fact that are of importance. Moyes can't put the ball in the net himself. He can only create tactics that maximise the number of chances and hope the players apply the finishing touches. He did his part.

Moyes likes his teams to follow the plan he devises. That's why it takes time for most players to get into the team (Baines had to wait his time, too). Some people criticize this, but any team that overperforms have good teamplay and tactics. It's given, since you have to compensate the lesser quality of the players somehow. It's arguable what the best way is but it is an undeniable truth that Moyes's style has been effective and that he changed the style to be more adventurous for this season. This also resulted in a worse defensive record early in the season.

Moyes was also criticized for his substitutions. A very common theme was "why did he swap a defender in?". There are a couple of things to consider when criticizing a manager for his substitions. Firstly, someone like Moyes doesn't do these things by chance. He has the statistics. For instance, how often have a team chasing the game turned it around by swapping a midfielder or defender to a forward? As opposed to not doing it? Does any of the critics have this statistics?

There are also tactical things to consider:

Was the team creating chances before the substition? Adding more attackers in place of defenders probably won't increase these. Unless you go route one.

Was the team in control? If not, things will only get worse if you swap a midfielder to a forward.

Was the opponent already threatening to score more goals? This can lead to your team to drop too low simply because of psychological reasons so changing the shape of the team might help push the other players forward. We have seen Moyes telling the players to push forward in these situations and yet they didn't, so this does happen.

How did the shape of the team actually change? Did it really turn more defensive?

Was the substituted player looking like doing anything? If not, isn't it then a better bet to get someone else in?

What really were the options on the benc?. It's a bit of a laa-laa land to think that an 18-year old untried player will come on and turn the match. It happens very rarely.

Numbers seem to suggest that unlike the common perception, Everton actually are very good at getting back in games. Only two teams saved more points after falling behind in a match (21) this season. These were Spurs and Manchester United.

All in all, of course managers also make mistakes. There is another manager in the other dugout who is trying to outsmart you as well. Moyes is an avid user of Prozone which gives all the stats that you can imagine and then some. So one thing we can be sure of is that he doesn't guess.

One should also compare the style of play to the other teams in the PL. How many games really are exciting these days?

I think the issue is that some people haven't watched Everton this season. Or they just simply are suffering from cognitive dissonance. They hold such a strong belief how Everton play that they refuse to see what goes on in front of their eyes. It's also clear that Moyes in some people's eyes is always wrong. If he substitutes a forward in and the team then concedes, it was his fault. If he doesn't substitute, he should have. If he makes a "defensive" substitution, he is clueless. If the team is winning, substituting a defender in is being too cautious, while a more attack-minded is stupid, if the team then concedes (and yes, I've seen Moyes swapping to a more attack-minded player when winning the match as well! It's all about the situation.)

Player selection is another thing where fans seem to get it wrong more of than right. Managers in the PL these days don't just select teams based on feelings–they use statistics that we fans never see. They also see the same players every day in training and they know of the knocks and injuries that are not published. We also usually, even with the tabloids, don't hear about domestic issues that players are having that could affect their performance or how players behave towards the manager and other players. Moyes run a tight ship where team spirit was important and if rumours are to be believed, this has been the reason why Vellios was all but frozen out of the first team.

As with tactics, of course managers also make mistakes with their selections. I have been baffled with some selections, but it's usually not as clear cut as the manager not liking somebody when he is not playing. But if someone as thorough as Moyes picks or does not pick a player, there is certainly a reason. There was an excellent article in the Financial Times about this (link below).

These stats were taken from the excellent Executioner's Bong site. Anyone wondering how Everton have actually played under Moyes is well advised to visit that site for some insight.

Against the top teams

This season we got 12 points from top four teams and they got 13 from us. This is better than Arsenal and Spurs and only a point less than Manchester United.

So what ever happened before, this season the results are comparable to the top teams.

Away record is another matter. But if one looks at how many times the top teams loose at home against anyone but the other top teams you find that considering all the top four, they lost two matches at home in total this season. Manchester United lost to Spurs in September, Chelsea lost to QPR in January, Arsenal to Swansea in December and City lost to Norwich in that meaningless last day match against Norwich. So each top four club lost once to a non-top four club this season. Liverpool didn't win any of them away either.

On the other hand, Everton won Manchester United, won and drew against City and drew twice with Arsenal. Only Chelsea won both matches against us. Hardly a poor record.

Youngsters

Moyes apparently doesn't like to play youngsters. This seems to come from the idea that the youth teams are brimming with would-be world-class players who are just stopped by Moyes from fullfilling their potential.

Of course to think like this requires one to forget Rooney, Rodwell, Coleman, etc. and also fail to realise how many raw players he has improved. The most obvious one being Leighton Baines who hardly was a star when he arrived (of course he was good in Wigan as well, otherwise Moyes wouldn't have spent 6 million to get him). Coleman's rise this season is another testament to Moyes's skills of bringing the best out of players. The players that didn't get a real chance haven't exactly set the world alight either. Players like Baxter, who was supposedly a great talent and who Moyes should have played more is currently playing in the Football League One at Oldham. James Wallace plays in the same divison, for Tranmere. Peter Clarke, the once promising central defender plays in the Championship. Nick Chadwick got some chances, but didn't make it. And there are plenty of players who should have apparently been played like Kieran Agard, Hope Akpan, Lukas Jutkiewicz, and so on. Google to find out how they are making.

The biggest loss during this time was arguably Wigan's Callum McManaman, who was released at 16. But I think you need to search high and wide for teams who never released any players at that age who then turned out to be decent.

Remember who Everton released before Moyes time (several of them played in that team across the park later). If anything, during Moyes's time this track record has been much better. Of course we can only tell the whole truth several years from now when all the released youngsters have carved their place in football.

It is true that Moyes values experience but to say he never gives youth a chance is simply not true. First you need youth that are worth it and just going through the old team sheets you'll find evidence of this. It's also always risky to do this. Lambert did it this year at Villa and might have well done down without Benteke's goals.

Poor results

Some people keep harping about this or that match as proof that Moyes doesn't know what he is doing. Anyone who thinks picking single matches as proof of this should tell me which teams don't have poor matches. Spurs had them, Arsenal had them, Manchester City had them and so on. Moyes is critized for loosing to Wigan in the cup. But so did Manchester City with their team that has cost more than ten times more, and at Wembley!

Every team has poor results. Consistency is the key, and grinding out results when playing badly. But for some reason the rich teams tend to do best with these since they can rotate off-form players and they have world-class players who can produce magical moments to win those matches they shouldn't have. Players like Robin van Persie or Juan Mata or David Silva. Everton simply can't afford them.

Moyes is also blamed for choking in the big matches. We won Manchester United at Wembley and lost in the Champion's League qualifiers to the eventual semi-finalists because of a glaring refereeing mistake. I wouldn't consider these "choking".

Results against Liverpool are really the only thing that has been worse than in the 90's. I personally rather take the 20 point improvement (and roughly 10 positions higher finish) than a single win against them every year. And I'd rather we finish above them in the final table, even if we lost to them on pitch than vice versa. After all, the table doesn't lie while a single match is a fluke. Who can honestly say we had a better team than them in the late 90's?

Granted, his European results could have been better. There were a few shocking results (IMO, Dinamo Bucharest away was the worst) but again, very few teams never have bad results. But I suspect this is down to Moyes prioritizing domestic league to european matches. Team tactics and personnel are selected with Premier League in mind. With limited resources you have to do compromises and since you have to do well in PL to get to Europe in the first place, this in undeniably the better option. Plus, the Europa League haven't really generated any serious money–a few places higher in PL gives you more. This year was the first time that the winners actually got any serious money. See the Swiss Ramble blog post for a more detailed breakdown.

To get the full picture one should compare to other teams. I only notice one winner every year for each competition, so did all the other teams choke?

No cups

A favourite claim is that Moyes has failed to bring silverware. But let's see how many clubs actually have managed it.

There have been a total of 33 domestic prizes to be won during the 11 years.

Only four teams have been crowned champions: Manchester United (6), Chelsea (3), Arsenal (1) and Manchester City (1). FA Cup has been won four times by Chelsea, twice by Arsenal, and once by Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, Portsmouth and Wigan.

So outside teams that have budgets at least twice as big as Everton, these two major trophies have been won only twice over the eleven years. Both of these winners will play in the lower divisions next season.

League Cup has been won seven times by these big teams and four times by others (Middlesbrough, Tottenham, Birmingham and Swansea).

Even some of the clubs with bigger budgets haven't won anything. Saying that Moyes is a poor manager because he won nothing would be saying the same about almost every other manager that has been in the Premier League as well. And by law of averages, you can't have the majority of anything below average (unless the top end is really, really high up). Of course this isn't even the first time in Everton's history that we went more than 11 years without winning something.

So out of 33, 27 have been won by those five clubs. Their budgets are at least twice that of Everton's. They can rotate players more readily so it's easier to concentrate on multiple fronts.

Fact is, Premier league today is a completely different league to the old First Division. Back then, even small teams managed to be crowned champions, never mind Everton who used to be one of the Big Five. We are not even in the Big Six any more. By all accounts, Everton is a mid-table team nowadays. Just saying that we used to win stuff does not mean we are automatically intitled. Preston North End were known as the invincibles, yet they haven't won anything major since 1958.

Funny detail is that out of the smaller clubs to win any silverware in the last 11 years, only this year's League Cup winners (Swansea) are still playing in the Premier League! One can't help think that maybe they concentrated too much on the cups... unless of course you believe that as long as the club wins silverware, they can be relegated and play in the lower divisions from there on and it's ok.

Progress

The real value of any manager can be assessed by looking at where the club was when he started and where it is when he leaves.

Let's look at where the club was first.

In Smith's last game in charge the team was

Simonsen; Pistone, Stubbs, Weir, Unsworth, Clarke; Gascoigne, Gemmill (76' Blomqvist), Linderoth (46' Alexandersson); Radzinski, Moore (46' Chadwick).

With Carsley, Ferguson, Campbell, Naysmith, Pembridge and Watson missing.

People moan about Naismith, back then we had Blomqvist, Alexandersson, etc! It was a really, really poor team.

The club finished 16th with 42 points.

Compare and contrast with today.

The starting lineup on Moyes's last match was

Howard; Coleman,Jagielka, Distin, Baines; Gibson, Fellaini, Pienaar, Mirallas; Naismith (67' Jelavic), Anichebe (68' Heitinga Y:71').

Subs: Mucha, Hibbert, Duffy, Oviedo, Barkley.

The club finished 6th with 63 points–21 points and 10 positions higher.

Can anyone honestly say there hasn't been a major improvement? How many of Smith's team would you choose ahead of Moyes's team? I could understand the criticism if Moyes had had a lot of money to spend but he has essentially done all this with next to nothing. What he has spent he has had to sell first. And seemingly often also sell without getting the chance to spend, such as the Arteta money. If anything, Moyes has had comparatively far less money to spend than his predecessors ever (excepting a few short stints).

And this was just the first team. Moyes instigated the building of Finch Farm, he has setup the club's footballing operations from ground up and hired the backroom staff which is highly regarded.

Fact is, Everton was heading for the trap door under Walter Smith. Moyes not only prevented that, he built a platform that hopefully makes this less likely in the future.

This comparison is really the most relevant in the entire article. Compare the situation when Moyes came to where we are now. How many will say that we are worse off? How many can honestly say that any run-of-the-mill manager could have done the same transformation?

Conclusions

So why didn't we finish in the top four?

Lack of depth and quality. The two major factors that led to dropping easy points were poor shot conversion (one of the worst in PL) and individual errors. Strangely enough these are the types of things you improve when you splash out tens of millions in new players and what you tend to suffer from when you shop at the bargain basement. Lack of depth meant that players like Naismith and Anichebe got far too much playing time.

It is hardly Moyes's fault that the club's budget is 10th highest. Actually on the contrary since finishing higher than expected he has boosted the coffers with extra prize money every year. It's also easy to single out players and blame Moyes for playing them but the fact is Moyes didn't have the resources to replace them just like that. Naismith was clearly signed because he was a freebie with modest wages and he had played well with Jelavic at Rangers.

January transfer window was a case in point: everyone saw the team needed strenghtening both in midfield and striking departments but nothing happened. After this the team slumped and this in the end cost the CL place. I hardly think Moyes decided not to pursue targest earlier in the window.

Worse still was summer of 2009 when we had just played in the FA Cup final and had arguably the best squad of Moyes's time. Instead of giving him funds to strenghten the team to push forward, the board didn't allow any transfers of note (only a couple of freebies). Things then got from bad to worse as Lescott decided he's had enough. Over the summer all the good work done in the previous year was undone. Everyone saw that the team could have made a real push with a couple of signings but Moyes was unable to spend anything before Lescott left.

It will be unlikely that Everton will maintain the current position in the league without changes in ownership because it would require a top-class manager. None of the names mentioned have shown this sort of quality. Some look outright disasters. Improving on Moyes is fantasy land. This is simply based on looking at the managerial signings of any Premier League teams over the past ten years. Anyone who thinks Kenwright will find a top manager needs to write down the managers in the PL for any length of time and see how many have been successes. You should disregard this season since there are plenty of one-season wonders (Pardew being an excellent recent example).

One noteworthy thing are these flash-in-the-pan types that many hoped would replace Moyes in the past. None of them have really managed to stay up there while Moyes has kept going. I can't see anything to suggest that Everton is any better at finding good managers than any other club in the PL. I think we just got very lucky the last time. I hope the club proves me wrong, though.

Sources

http://theexecutionersbong.wordpress.com/2013/05/19/everton-a-z-season-deconstruction-1213/

http://transferleague.co.uk/

http://www.toffeeweb.com/players/transfers.php

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/2fa7ef1e-b2c0-11e2-8540-00144feabdc0.html#slide0

http://www.therealarsenal.com/tag/wenger-transfer-history/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

Editor's note: In the absence of a title from Marko, this article was initially published under the headline "Analysing Moyes's Performance at Everton" which, in hindsight, is a little misleading given that the thrust of the piece is to address the criticisms leveled at his tenure. The first dozen or so comments below should be viewed in the context of the original title. — Lyndon

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