Gov. Gen. David Johnston prepares to give the Throne Speech while being accompanied by his wife Sharon Johnston in the Senate Chamber on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Friday, Dec. 4, 2015. iPolitics/Matthew Usherwood

Beyond the words and occasion of a throne speech the Liberals will have to manage two major policy files going into an election—the first on energy and the environment, the second on the NAFTA renegotiation.

The Trudeau Liberals are reportedly giving serious thought to a speech from the throne to launch a new session of Parliament in the fall. That is a discussion for next Tuesday’s summer meeting of the Liberal cabinet in British Columbia, after which a decision will be made.

Whether they choose to prorogue or move ahead with the current agenda — or as some rumour mills have it, call a snap election — it’s a fair assumption that a draft of a throne speech is already well advanced at the Prime Minister’s Office.

There is no political downside to the Liberals proroguing the House at this point. The government’s only throne speech was on December 4, 2015, a month after the Liberals took office. At nearly three years, the current session is among the longest of the modern era since the second half of the 20th century. (Only the governments of Pierre Trudeau from 1980-83 and Jean Chrétien from 1994-97, had longer-running first sessions).

While Trudeau might be accused of proroguing for the partisan purpose of setting up the 2019 election, it would be well within parliamentary convention. Nor would the Liberals’ 2015 legislative agenda automatically die on the order paper with prorogation, as once would have been the case. Since 1994, bills can be re-instated at their previous stage, if the House passes motions. With a majority government, that’s a given.

The question is what the theme and content of a throne speech might be.

In 2015, under the title Making Real Change Happen, the Liberals offered a five-point plan of growing the middle class, cultural diversity, transparent government, environment and the economy and security and opportunity. There are some broken promises in there, including electoral reform “to ensure that 2015 will be the last federal election conducted under the first-past-the-post voting system.” There are promises kept, too, including the bill to “legalize, regulate and restrict access to marijuana.” But as we saw with Monday’s announcement by Ontario to privatize cannabis sale, access may differ from one province to the next, to say nothing of provincial enforcement of drugged driving offences.

And there are some works in progress, including legislation “that will get handguns and assault weapons off our streets.”

The Liberals have gun control legislation, Bill C-71, before the current parliamentary sitting, and could reintroduce at that stage in a new session. After the handgun shootings on Toronto’s Danforth, and the long gun shooting in Fredericton last week, there would be strong support for increased restrictions, while noting the difference between legal long guns and assault weapons. As Justin Trudeau told reporters after a visit with Fredericton police Monday: “I think there are natural conversations that need to be held now. Do we need to take further steps? Do we need to go further?”

A throne speech could provide the answer to that.

The Liberals would undoubtedly reiterate their economic theme of “building the middle class and those working to join it,” looking ahead to the fall economic statement and winter or spring budget.

Beyond the words and occasion of a throne speech the Liberals will have to manage two major policy files going into an election—the first on energy and the environment, the second on the NAFTA renegotiation.

In the last throne speech, the government stated that “a clean environment and a strong economy go hand in hand.” That was before the Liberals approved the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, tripling its capacity to 900,000 barrels a day from Alberta to Burnaby B.C. Not only do the Liberals support TMX, the government now owns it, having agreed to buy it from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion, with that much more again as the cost of completing the expansion.

There’s a political price to be paid for this in the lower B.C. mainland where opponents range from eco-activists to Indigenous peoples. With 18 seats in B.C., the Liberals could easily lose half a dozen over the Trans Mountain issue alone.

As for the NAFTA talks, progress has recently been measured by Canada’s absence from the table, while the U.S. and Mexico discuss wages and North American content in the Mexican auto industry. This is no more unusual than Canada and the U.S. having bilateral talks over softwood lumber or newsprint.

But the clock is ticking on the prospects of a draft agreement before the U.S. Congress adjourns for the November mid-terms, and before the new Mexican president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, takes office on December 1.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is up to his usual tricks, threatening Canada on twitter. “Canada must wait,” Trump tweeted last Friday, “their tariffs and trade barriers are far too high. Will tax cars if we can’t make a deal.”

Someone from his own team might explain to Trump that there’s more than 60-per-cent U.S. content in Canadian made cars and parts, which cross the border on average six times during assembly.

The Trudeau government would be well advised to ignore Trump’s Twitter taunts, at the same time refrain from conducting its own diplomacy via social media. Sometimes the old ways are just better.

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