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It's getting more difficult to see where robust growth may come from, the study's authors say. But they see no sign of Oregon's economy faltering.

(Oregonian file photo)

Oregon's rebound from the Great Recession has nearly run its course, according to a regional forecast out this week from the Northwest Economic Research Center at Portland State University.

The researchers conclude that as the state nears "full employment," recent economic growth rates will be impossible to sustain. But that doesn't mean the party's over.

"We're not to the hangover," said Tom Potiowsky, director of the research center and former Oregon state economist. "You're sort of settling in to the mellow part of the party."

Barring a sudden shock, Potiowsky said that he expects Oregon to enjoy continued economic expansion through next year. Beyond that, though, he said caution signs are beginning to emerge.

"We've seen some little pockets or areas where we're seeing some definite slowdown," he said.

Manufacturing, for example, has been off in recent months. Part of that is due to job cuts at Intel, which eliminated as many as 1,000 jobs in Washington County last spring, according to state labor data.

Measure 97's proposed tax on business sales and pending increases in Oregon's minimum wage create a degree of uncertainty for the state economy, according to the report. And across industries, the tightening of Oregon's job market makes it more difficult for businesses to expand.

"Full employment is a nice thing to have but it causes some supply constraints," Potiowsky said. "You just can't grow at the rate you did before."

The upside of that labor squeeze is that it's pushing wages up. Oregon's median household income, which has historically lagged the national level, has jumped well ahead. The median Oregon household earns close to $61,000, almost 8 percent above the U.S. benchmark.

In the long run, the study's authors say, it's difficult to see what would sustain robust growth in Oregon's economy. On the other hand, there's little in the economic data to indicate the economy is faltering.

So Potiowsky said he expects Oregon's growth will continue for the foreseeable future, until another economic bubble or some other shock intervenes.

"Recoveries, expansion periods, don't necessarily have to die of old age," Potiowsky said. "They generally die because they do something to themselves."

-- Mike Rogoway

mrogoway@oregonian.com

503-294-7699

@rogoway