The PEC calculation relies on state-level polls, which take time to come in. But by now the Meta-Analysis is current: of the top ten states listed in The Power Of One Voter, nearly all polls are post-Comey. The exceptions are Iowa and Michigan.

Michigan is vexing because of one oddball survey taken over a two-month period showing Clinton +20%. This is where medians help a lot; that race is more like Clinton +4.5%, which makes it about as competitive as Virginia and North Carolina. I hear Hillary Clinton is going to Michigan. In addition, there are three close House races there. It’s probably a good use of her time.

If you want an estimate that uses national polls, see The Upshot. I’m a little concerned that FiveThirtyEight’s code double-counts (i.e. overcounts) the swings in national and state polls. They’ve been a bit underconfident and volatile.

Of far greater import is the recent shift in Senate polls, which are also post-Comey (though we’re using a longer time window there). As of now, six races show medians (calculated using the PEC rule) of 1 percentage point or less. Entering the sharpest knife-edge zone are two states that have been trending toward Republicans: Indiana and Wisconsin. Democratic candidates Bayh (D-IN) and Feingold (D-WI) may be caught in an undertow caused by a shift from Clinton +6% (median of 19 polls that were in the field on October 24th) to Clinton +2% (median of 7 polls, October 31).

Things aren’t looking great for Bayh – the most recent 3 polls show his opponent Todd Young (R) leading by a median of 4 percentage points. The Senate Meta-Margin is staying steady, in part because Jason Kander (D-MO) is improving.