We’re staying in Texas for the Shell Houston Open, the Tour’s lead-in event for The Masters next week. Typically the winners of this tournament don’t do well in the masters, but what matters this week is a lot of guys will be fighting their way into the top 50 in the World Golf Rankings to make The Masters. Some of these golfers include: K.J. Choi, Charles Howell III, Retief Goosen, Stewart Cink, and Steve Stricker. Golf Club of Houston has good sized fairways and very forgiving roughs, so Driving Accuracy isn’t as important and Driving Distance gets a bonus. However, water comes into play on several holes so I wouldn’t pick anybody who’s absolutely terrible at accuracy. Greens in Regulation and Proximity to Hole are also telling stats for success here.

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High End Plays

Jordan Spieth $12,900

Spieth hasn’t been in the best form (for him) as of late, but he tied for runner up here last year. He’s awfully expensive and has pretty bad tournament history outside of last year, so I see him as a good fade.

Henrik Stenson $10,800

His super long made cut streak continues after a 3rd place finish at Arnold Palmer. He’s made all 4 cuts here along with 2nd and 3rd place finishes so he represents a strong cash game play and GPP stud.

Phil Mickelson $10,500

The official Houston course horse. He’s on a streak 5 straight top 20 finishes that started with a victory in 2011. He’s riding great form this season and he should be a highly owned play. With all the value down low, studs and scrubs lineups will be popular this week, so expect heavy ownership and plan accordingly. I wouldn’t recommend completely fading him but going underweight is a good move if you’re making multiple lineups.

J.B. Holmes $9,700

J.B. is the defending champion who has good course history and is riding great form. He’s hitting the ball longer than Dustin Johnson now and is almost longest on tour. Expect heavy ownership on him as well.

Charl Schwartzel $9,500

Of the people playing in the tournament, Schwartzel is probably in the best form of them all. He looked good at WGC, won Valspar, and has been making every cut. Schwartzel is a Masters winner so this is the time of year to be using him.

Brooks Koepka $9,300

Koepka has no course history here but statistically he sets up for this course perfectly. He’s a power hitting birdie maker so he’s the perfect GPP play. The Vegas odds love him for the salary and he represents the best value of all the studs on the board.

Charles Howell III $8,900

CH3 is in super form and was in contention here until the end last year. His course history here isn’t as good as tournaments past, but he has some good finishes. He should be higher owned in the lower $ tournaments since guys that just look at the game logs will see him and pile up on him.

Mid Tier Plays

Rafa Cabrera-Bello $8,500

Cabrera-Bello beat Rory McIlroy in the consolation match to take 3rd in the WGC match play tournament. He also finished T11 at WGC Cadillac along with 2 T2s on the European Tour recently. Since the match play wasn’t covered by DFS he may go overlooked, so he makes for a sneaky GPP play.

Charley Hoffman $8,400

The other course horse who’s made all 9 cuts since it moved to this course in 2006. He has 4 top 20 finishes in that span including a T11 last year. He started the year in dreadful form but has 2 top 20 finishes in his last 2 tournaments. His statistics are under average outside of Tee to Green and Distance but that’s from his awful rounds in the early season. Last year in the Masters he led for the first few days along with Spieth before falling off after the cut. He makes for a high upside GPP only play.

Keegan Bradley $8,300

Notable course history: 5 of 5 cuts with 3 top 10 finishes and he finished T5 last year. He hits with distance and has good Proximity and GIR stats. His form is a lot worse this year, so GPP only.

Tony Finau $8,100

He should be one of the most popular plays after winning last week in Puerto Rico. He’s the longest hitter on tour, but he can get into trouble with his poor accuracy. He’s not the best putter and none of his stats stick out besides power and par 5 stats. You could try fading him in GPP and hoping he hits it in the water a few times. With water coming into play in 9/18 holes that could likely be the case.

Cameron Tringale $8,000

Tringale is a beast at this course with 5/5 cuts made and 3 top 10 finishes. He’s had 2 straight top 5 finishes. He’s in pretty iffy cut missing form compared to last year when he generally made cuts. I’d stick to GPP with him, what bothers me is his low proximity stat.

Steve Stricker $7,700

Stricker is always a great cash play and especially so this week. He’s made 7/8 cuts here and 4 straight. He’s trying to get an invitation to The Masters, so he has something to play for. He’s a sure putter, but he doesn’t hit greens very often at all. This leads to him getting lots of pars which is safe but low scoring for DFS purposes.

William McGirt $7,200 (fade)

Don’t let the huge price drop fool you into taking him, his best finish here is 82nd in 4 tries. He missed the cut last week at a scrub event which is embarassing.

Russell Henley $7,000

He has 2 straight top 10 finishes here but his current form is absolutely miserable. Despite his form, his driving and GIR stats have been great, and his putting has been slightly above average. I’d have some exposure in GPP but not too much.

Lee Westwood $7,000

Until his MC last year he had made 8 straight cuts at this event with 6 straight top 30 finishes. He hasn’t been in good form in the European Tour and that concerns me a bit.

Value Plays

Kyle Reifers $6,900

Reifers has been in pretty good form lately and he did really well in Puerto Rico. He’s also done well each time he’s played this tournament, including a T11 last year. I like him in cash and GPP.

Reteif Goosen $6,800

Goosen has been on a tear lately, not just making cuts but also posting some high finishes. In his last attempt here he finished T7 but he missed the cut the year before. His stats are crappy outside of his putter, but a good putter is a nice safety mechanism. I worry about his awful driving accuracy and proximity getting him into trouble with the water so I’m limiting my exposure to GPP.

Alex Cejka $6,800

Cejka has been posting some low scores lately and he finished T11 here last year. All of his stats are well above average outside of driving distance, so I like him as a cash play.

Sean O’Hair $6,800

O’Hair has withdrawn from this tournament in 2 straight years. he basically gives up if he runs into trouble at all and just uses this event as a practice round for The Masters. He’s also WD’d lately because of a neck injury, which he seemed to have overcame at Bay Hill. He’s a super risky play but he has high GPP upside.

Johnson Wagner $6,100

Last year’s runner up makes for a nice value play at this low price. He’s a former winner here but he missed the cut the 2 years before last year’s T2 finish. He’s in absolutely terrible form right now but his GIR stats are phenomenal. He’s also a decent putter so I’d use him in GPP.

Steve Marino $6,100

Marino lost in a playoff last week and was in pretty decent form before that. He hasn’t played here in 4 years, but he’s made 5 straight cuts since 2007. He’s good at GIR but nothing else really.

Ben Crane $5,600

Crane has been very steady at this course with 6 straight cuts made. He’s not in great form lately but he seems to be good at certain courses only. I’d play him in cash games.

You can access the weekly cheat sheet with complete course history, odds, and recent form for each player by visiting our Slack channel on the channel #only-taco-posts-here where I keep it pinned at. You can also hit me up on the #pga-talk channel to ask me any questions you may have for the week. Good luck out there this week.