North Korea won't stop improving its missiles

The US and the international community have been dealing with North Korea's missile and nuclear programs for decades. But North Korea's missile program just got a lot better — and more dangerous — this year. "The North Korean program is a real program now," Vipin Narang, a nuclear expert at MIT, told me. Here's what he means. North Korea changed the game when it successfully tested the Hwasong-14 ICBM on July 4 and 28. After the second test, it appeared that the missile could travel around 10,000 km, or 6,200 miles, according to experts. That's enough to hit the US homeland, and possibly even cities like Chicago, New York, or Washington, DC. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had warned that this was going to happen. Back in January, he said his country was close to testing an ICBM, a long-range missile that was a vital part of the Soviet Union's arsenal during the Cold War. Though Trump promised that type of test wouldn't happen, Pyongyang fired missiles not once but twice in July. @realDonaldTrump: North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen! Why does North Korea want an ICBM? First, it's a valuable deterrent. North Korea rightly believes Washington would have to think twice about using force if Pyongyang could reliably strike back. Just as importantly, the Kim regime's primary objective is to survive — and having a viable missile and nuclear program helps it stay in power. The Kim family, which has been in power since Kim Il Sung took charge in 1948, has seen what happens to leaders who don't have nuclear weapons. In modern times, Iraq's Saddam Hussein persuaded much of the world that he had restarted his country's nuclear weapons program; he hadn't, but the boasts helped spark the 2003 invasion that drove him from power. In Libya, Muammar Qaddafi gave up his program to build closer ties to the West, but was eventually ousted from power and killed by a mob. So, Kim Jong Un, Kim Il Sung's grandson, has no incentive to stop any of its programs. In fact, he has incentives to keep them going. That doesn't leave Trump — or his predecessors — with many good options. But there is one thing the president can do in the meantime: let America's friends in East Asia know that America will still protect them from the growing danger. Based on this weekend, it looks like he's doing just that.

Flying bombers over the Korean Peninsula is meant to reassure US allies

In response to Friday's ICBM test, the US flew two B-1B bombers alongside South Korean and Japanese fighter jets above South Korea on Saturday. Kim is well aware that the US could bomb North Korea if the North were ever to attack any of those countries. But the 10-hour mission wasn't about scaring Pyongyang. It was about letting Seoul and Tokyo know that Washington still has their backs. "The only reason we have shows of strength is to remind South Korea and Japan that the alliance is strong," Narang noted. There's a good reason the US felt it had to do this. Basically, North Korea already has the ability to strike both South Korea and Japan. They rely on the US to protect them from a North Korean missile, chemical, or nuclear attack, and they want the US to guarantee that Pyongyang will get hit if it hurts allies. The problem is that North Korea now has the ICBM, which puts at least parts of the US homeland in range. That brings up a dilemma for the Trump administration: Does it risk being struck by North Korea in order to protect South Korea or Japan? That's why conducting a military exercise in response to Friday's missile test was so important. "Our response can be viewed as necessary to assure our allies that we do still have their backs," retired Lt. Gen. Chip Gregson, the Pentagon's top Asia official from 2009 to 2011, said in an interview. Flying bombers is a tried-and-true method of calming ally nerves. In 2013, for example, the US and South Korea practiced a bombing run where two American B-2 stealth bombers dropped eight fake munitions near North Korea as part of the "Foal Eagle" annual exercise. This year, Foal Eagle included around 30,000 US and South Korean troops who jointly practiced air, sea, and special operations from March to April. In addition, the US contributes to South Korea's missile defense. That's why it sent the THAAD system to the country, which will help it defend against short-range North Korean missiles. It won't stop an ICBM, but it can help protect Seoul — South Korea's capital with a population of 25.6 million — which is within striking distance of North Korea's large artillery force near their shared border. So far, the THAAD system has a 15-for-15 success rate in tests. However, South Korea is thinking about building more powerful ballistic missiles of its own, the New York Times reports. The US would have to approve their construction because of their bilateral security treaty. Still, it shows that Seoul is getting nervous and is looking to take some of its security into its own hands. That could potentially be a problem down the road. If Seoul and Tokyo ever felt like they would not be supported by the US, they might try get a nuclear weapon to protect themselves, Mira Rapp-Hooper, an Asia security expert at the Center for a New American Security think tank, told me. That has the potential to anger North Korea — and China — which would only make things more dangerous in the region. So: Conducting shows of force with allies is not new. But it never hurts to reassure an ally. However, North Korea's growing capabilities have added a sense of urgency. That may be why Trump tried to get China to help with the situation. The problem is that outreach didn't work, and now the administration is changing course.

Trump is bashing China because Beijing didn't do what he wanted

There are no good options for Trump