The recent breakthrough in U.S.-Cuban relations may have the unintended effect of spurring Cuban athletes to defect during the Pan Am Games in Toronto, say observers of both sports and politics.

Cuban athletes in sports from soccer to baseball to fencing have defected at various competitions across Canada over the years, including the 1999 Pan Am Games in Winnipeg, but the lure may be stronger this time as a window of opportunity is seen to be closing south of the border.

In December, U.S. President Barack Obama announced he would restore diplomatic ties with Cuba, a dramatic shift that held out the possibility of easing restrictions on trade and travel. But it also sparked fears among some Cubans that the United States might change the long-standing policy that essentially grants residency and a path to citizenship to any Cuban who reaches the U.S. border.

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In the weeks after Mr. Obama's speech, the number of Cuban migrants who tried to cross the Straits of Florida in homemade rafts doubled. Since then, the number has remained about 25 per cent higher than in 2014 and about 90 per cent higher than in 2013, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

"We've seen a surge in the number of Cuban migrants to the U.S. trying to come through various means. The most dramatic are the rafters, but there's also been an increase in the number coming through Mexico," said Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, adding there has been no official indication that U.S. asylum policy will change.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see people using the travel to Canada to stay."

When it comes to Cuba, the spotlight tends to fall on the stars of the men's baseball team. But one former agent who has followed the Cuban team across the continent says defections, if they occur in Toronto, are more likely to involve athletes in other sports.

"My guess is there will be a lot of action involving non-baseball players," said Joe Kehoskie, who has represented Cuban players. "Other than the U.S. itself, there's no better place to defect than Canada. A Cuban simply has to walk away, and Toronto is an hour from the border."

Two baseball players left the Cuban team during a Pan Am warm-up tournament in North Carolina last week. That's rare nowadays, Mr. Kehoskie says, as ballplayers, many of whom can expect lucrative professional contracts, have preferred to put themselves in the hands of human smugglers to get out of Cuba. Some have even been granted permission to play abroad in the Cuban off-season.

Starting in the late 1990s, Mr. Kehoskie often travelled wherever the Cuban team was playing and helped athletes defect. He describes the process as very frightening for the young athletes – but much easier than one might assume.

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"The word 'defection' conjures up James Bond Cold War stories where people are running away and being chased by security agents, but for the most part it tends to be very simple," he said.

Years ago, before cellphones and Facebook made planning with family or agents much easier, Mr. Kehoskie used to try to make contact with a player by sending young women or kids to get his autograph and then surreptitiously slipping him a phone number tucked inside the pen cap. He says today's Cuban players have all been contacted dozens of time by agents, so if they were going to leave, they would probably have done so already.

In 2000, when he helped two junior players jump ship in Edmonton, the players just asked to use the bathroom and walked to a waiting car, one of them still wearing his uniform. Afterward, the players went for dinner and made their way to the U.S. border rather than claim asylum in Canada.

In Winnipeg in 1999, Cuban pitcher Danys Baez left the team, soon after signed a multimillion-dollar contract and played many years in the major leagues. Jose Iglesias, now an all-star infielder with the Detroit Tigers, defected in Edmonton in 2008. And some of the soccer players who defected in Toronto in 2012 now play in a second-tier North American league.

But for athletes in most sports, defection will mean the end of their careers and a significant loss of status. It also means leaving behind family, with no idea when they might be reunited.

There are 461 athletes in the Cuban delegation competing in 225 events.