There are times when you have to stop yourself and ask, “Is this obvious to everyone else, or is this just obvious to me?”

This statement isn’t meant to be pretentious, but a lot of the time what seems obvious to some people, whether it be because of any availability or recency effects, isn’t obvious to others.

For example, think about the last time you watched a sporting event with a group of people and someone said, “_________ is so good.” In your head you think to yourself, “This person obviously doesn’t know what he’s talking about,” or “__________ was good five years ago, but he’s a year away from retirement right now.”

It may be obvious to us that “________” is not as good as they used to be. But keep in mind that you’re at a far off corner of the Internet about to read an article about advanced analytics in Fantasy Baseball, so you probably shouldn’t hold others to the same standards of overall awareness, when it comes to sports, as you hold yourself.

Importance of First-Pitch Strike Percentage

To me, first pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%) is a key peripheral metric when it comes to the analysis of pitchers, but my guess is that this could be less obvious to others.

From 2002 to 2014, for all pitchers with 100 innings pitched, F-Strike% has shown a -0.364 (r) correlation with FIP, which is a moderate negative relationship. In plain English, F-Strike% explains 13.2% of FIP (graph below).

F-strike% percentage is also a skill that is “sticky” (i.e. there is a strong year-to-year correlation in a pitchers F-Strike%). Over the same sample as above, F-Strike% showed a .64 (r) year-to-year correlation, which is a strong positive relationship. To put that .64 (r) into perspective, over the same sample, ERA showed a .33 (r) year-to-year correlation, and FIP showed a .40 (r) year-to-year correlation with ERA.

F-Strike% Risers

The chart below shows a lot of numbers, but it should be pretty self-explanatory.

The population includes all pitchers that threw 100 or more innings pitched in 2013 and 2014, their FIPs in each year, their F-Strike% in each year, and their difference between each metric for the respective years.

Name Team (DIFF) FIP FIP (2014) FIP (2013) (DIFF) F-Strike% F-Strike% (2014) F-Strike% (2013) Roberto Hernandez - - - 0.29 4.89 4.6 -6.10% 56.10% 62.20% A.J. Burnett Phillies 1.34 4.14 2.8 -5.80% 56.60% 62.40% Jorge de la Rosa Rockies 0.58 4.34 3.76 -5.70% 54.70% 60.40% Julio Teheran Braves -0.2 3.49 3.69 -5.10% 60.30% 65.40% Mat Latos Reds 0.55 3.65 3.1 -4.60% 59.10% 63.70% Tommy Milone - - - 0.43 4.74 4.31 -3.90% 63.10% 67.00% Jered Weaver Angels 0.37 4.19 3.82 -3.90% 56.00% 59.90% Adam Wainwright Cardinals 0.33 2.88 2.55 -3.80% 60.70% 64.50% Mike Minor Braves 1.02 4.39 3.37 -3.70% 60.80% 64.50% Justin Masterson - - - 1.1 4.5 3.4 -3.70% 55.10% 58.80% Travis Wood Cubs 0.49 4.38 3.89 -3.60% 57.50% 61.10% Ervin Santana Braves -0.54 3.39 3.93 -3.20% 62.70% 65.90% Dan Haren Dodgers -0.03 4.09 4.12 -3.20% 62.00% 65.20% Justin Verlander Tigers 0.46 3.74 3.28 -3.20% 61.90% 65.10% Lance Lynn Cardinals 0.07 3.35 3.28 -3.10% 60.20% 63.30% Gio Gonzalez Nationals -0.38 3.03 3.41 -2.80% 58.00% 60.80% Homer Bailey Reds 0.62 3.93 3.31 -2.70% 61.90% 64.60% Francisco Liriano Pirates 0.67 3.59 2.92 -2.70% 55.70% 58.40% Ubaldo Jimenez Orioles 1.36 4.79 3.43 -2.40% 56.00% 58.40% Dillon Gee Mets 0.52 4.52 4 -2.20% 60.20% 62.40% Cole Hamels Phillies -0.19 3.07 3.26 -1.90% 61.50% 63.40% Ricky Nolasco Twins 0.94 4.3 3.36 -1.90% 57.70% 59.60% Tim Lincecum Giants 0.45 4.19 3.74 -1.90% 54.60% 56.50% Shelby Miller Cardinals 0.86 4.53 3.67 -1.70% 60.60% 62.30% Jake Peavy - - - 0.15 4.11 3.96 -1.50% 64.60% 66.10% Tim Hudson Giants 0.08 3.54 3.46 -1.50% 63.10% 64.60% Hiroki Kuroda Yankees 0.04 3.6 3.56 -1.50% 60.00% 61.50% Hector Santiago Angels -0.07 4.42 4.49 -1.50% 56.00% 57.50% Kyle Lohse Brewers -0.13 3.95 4.08 -1.40% 64.50% 65.90% Gerrit Cole Pirates 0.32 3.23 2.91 -1.30% 62.50% 63.80% Max Scherzer Tigers 0.11 2.85 2.74 -1.20% 63.30% 64.50% Bud Norris Orioles 0.37 4.22 3.85 -1.20% 60.40% 61.60% C.J. Wilson Angels 0.8 4.31 3.51 -1.10% 58.70% 59.80% Anibal Sanchez Tigers 0.32 2.71 2.39 -0.90% 60.60% 61.50% Tom Koehler Marlins -0.54 3.84 4.38 -0.90% 59.00% 59.90% Chris Archer Rays -0.68 3.39 4.07 -0.60% 57.50% 58.10% John Danks White Sox -0.3 4.76 5.06 -0.50% 61.40% 61.90% Jeff Locke Pirates 0.34 4.37 4.03 -0.50% 58.00% 58.50% Wily Peralta Brewers -0.19 4.11 4.3 -0.20% 58.20% 58.40% Brandon McCarthy - - - -0.2 3.55 3.75 -0.10% 67.50% 67.60% Edwin Jackson Cubs 0.65 4.44 3.79 -0.10% 55.60% 55.70% Kyle Kendrick Phillies 0.56 4.57 4.01 0.00% 63.10% 63.10% Alex Cobb Rays -0.13 3.23 3.36 0.00% 59.30% 59.30% Mark Buehrle Blue Jays -0.44 3.66 4.1 0.00% 59.00% 59.00% Chris Tillman Orioles -0.41 4.01 4.42 0.30% 57.60% 57.30% Jon Lester - - - -0.79 2.8 3.59 0.50% 61.40% 60.90% Kevin Correia - - - 0.07 4.47 4.4 0.50% 58.50% 58.00% Jose Quintana White Sox -1.01 2.81 3.82 0.60% 66.50% 65.90% Matt Garza Brewers -0.34 3.54 3.88 0.60% 64.40% 63.80% Garrett Richards Angels -1.01 2.6 3.61 0.60% 55.50% 54.90% Clay Buchholz Red Sox 1.23 4.01 2.78 0.80% 60.70% 59.90% Phil Hughes Twins -1.83 2.65 4.48 0.90% 72.50% 71.60% Bartolo Colon Mets 0.34 3.57 3.23 0.90% 65.80% 64.90% Jeremy Guthrie Royals -0.47 4.32 4.79 1.00% 63.10% 62.10% Aaron Harang Braves -1.22 3.57 4.79 1.00% 59.50% 58.50% Eric Stults Padres 1.1 4.63 3.53 1.10% 62.90% 61.80% Jordan Lyles Rockies -0.26 4.22 4.48 1.20% 57.00% 55.80% Scott Kazmir Athletics -0.16 3.35 3.51 1.20% 62.20% 61.00% Yovani Gallardo Brewers 0.05 3.94 3.89 1.30% 57.20% 55.90% Mike Leake Reds -0.16 3.88 4.04 1.40% 60.20% 58.80% Jon Niese Mets 0.09 3.67 3.58 1.60% 63.10% 61.50% R.A. Dickey Blue Jays -0.26 4.32 4.58 1.60% 62.60% 61.00% Jason Hammel - - - -1.11 3.98 5.09 1.70% 57.50% 55.80% Ian Kennedy Padres -1.38 3.21 4.59 1.70% 64.00% 62.30% Jason Vargas Royals -0.25 3.84 4.09 1.70% 63.20% 61.50% Ryan Vogelsong Giants -1.06 3.85 4.91 1.70% 62.10% 60.40% Henderson Alvarez Marlins 0.4 3.58 3.18 1.80% 62.30% 60.50% Marco Estrada Brewers 1.87 5.73 3.86 1.80% 61.80% 60.00% David Price - - - -0.25 2.78 3.03 2.20% 69.90% 67.70% Charlie Morton Pirates 0.12 3.72 3.6 2.20% 61.00% 58.80% Andrew Cashner Padres -0.2 3.09 3.29 2.30% 63.40% 61.10% Wei-Yin Chen Orioles -0.15 3.89 4.04 2.40% 61.30% 58.90% Zack Wheeler Mets -0.62 3.55 4.17 2.40% 54.40% 52.00% Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers -0.62 2.62 3.24 2.60% 61.70% 59.10% Felix Hernandez Mariners -0.05 2.56 2.61 2.70% 64.70% 62.00% Miguel Gonzalez Orioles 0.37 4.83 4.46 2.80% 61.60% 58.80% Dallas Keuchel Astros -0.84 3.21 4.05 3.30% 65.40% 62.10% Edinson Volquez Pirates -0.07 4.18 4.25 3.30% 60.10% 56.80% Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners -0.19 3.25 3.44 3.40% 66.90% 63.50% John Lackey - - - -0.08 3.78 3.86 3.50% 67.80% 64.30% Clayton Kershaw Dodgers -0.58 1.81 2.39 3.70% 68.80% 65.10% Chris Sale White Sox -0.6 2.57 3.17 3.70% 67.00% 63.30% Rick Porcello Tigers 0.08 3.65 3.57 3.80% 64.50% 60.70% Nathan Eovaldi Marlins -0.22 3.37 3.59 3.90% 62.90% 59.00% Jordan Zimmermann Nationals -0.68 2.68 3.36 4.00% 70.90% 66.90% Wade Miley Diamondbacks 0 3.98 3.98 4.10% 63.50% 59.40% Yu Darvish Rangers -0.44 2.84 3.28 4.20% 61.80% 57.60% Corey Kluber Indians -1.01 2.35 3.36 4.30% 64.00% 59.70% Zack Greinke Dodgers -0.26 2.97 3.23 4.50% 62.70% 58.20% Scott Feldman Astros 0.08 4.11 4.03 4.60% 61.10% 56.50% James Shields Royals 0.12 3.59 3.47 5.00% 62.60% 57.60% Stephen Strasburg Nationals -0.27 2.94 3.21 5.30% 65.10% 59.80% Jeff Samardzija - - - -0.57 3.2 3.77 5.80% 65.50% 59.70% Doug Fister Nationals 0.66 3.93 3.27 5.90% 65.00% 59.10% Madison Bumgarner Giants 0 3.05 3.05 6.50% 66.70% 60.20%

If we sort by the pitchers that saw the biggest increases in F-Strike%, we see a lot of players that took big leaps in 2014:

Jeff Samrdzija’s F-Strike% went up 5.8%, and his FIP went down .57 points.

F-Strike% went up 5.8%, and his FIP went down .57 points. Corey Kluber’s F-Strike% went up 4.3%, and he lost over a run of FIP from his 2013 total.

Next, take a look at the pitchers who decreased the most in F-Strike% from 2013 to 2014:

Mike Minor’s FIP went up over a run.

FIP went up over a run. The same can be said for A.J. Burnett

… and Justin Masterson.

My hypothesis on this is, as a generalization, that a loss of “stuff” equates to a loss of F-Strike%. Think about it like this, if you’re a pitcher — I know, big stretch — you know before anyone else does when you’ve lost some of your velocity and/or movement on your pitches. As a result, that first-pitch fastball that you used to throw down the middle of the plate to get a jump on your competition may not seem like such a good idea. Instead, you try to paint the corner of the strike zone a little more, and the more you try and nibble on the outside edges, the more you miss. The more you miss, the more your performance suffers.

In essence, my hypothesis, and that is all it is for now, is that a loss in first pitch strike percentage is one of the earliest indicators in a loss of true talent.

First Pitch Strike Wrap-Up

To make all of this information a little bit more action oriented, let’s use this as an opportunity to summarize what we’ve learned:

If you see a pitcher’s FIP decrease in 2015, and you see that his F-Strike% went up as well, this pitcher may be better than he was the year before.

If you see a pitcher’s FIP increase in 2015, and you see that his F-Strike% went down, this may mean that the pitcher may be less effective than he was the previous season.

Photo of of Corey Kluber courtesy of Bill Bryan.