So after a day of downbeat data it's time to close the blog for the evening.

Tomorrow sees the latest UK and US service sector surveys, but the key event is likely to be the European Central Bank's monthly meeting. The bank is not expected to change interest rates, but its latest comments on the eurozone crisis will be keenly watched. Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics said:

We look for the ECB to keep rates on hold for a fifth consecutive month. Despite acknowledging that the economic outlook has deteriorated, President Mario Draghi seems set to argue that the ECB has already done enough by providing ample liquidity to the region's banks and cutting interest rates to record lows. Amid growing signs that governments' commitment to austerity is waning, he is likely to call for them to act to restore markets' confidence themselves. Moreover, he will re-assert that the ECB will not take further steps to finance their deficits for them.

We be back to cover the ECB and other developments, so it's goodbye for the moment and thanks for all the comments.

European markets have closed lower on another downbeat day, thanks to rising unemployment and a slump in manufacturing across the eurozone.

The FTSE 100 has finished down 54.12 points at 5758.11, a near 1% decline. Germany's Dax is 0.8% lower, while Spain's Ibex has dropped 2.55%, Italy's FTSE MIB 2.6% and the Athens market by 1.96%. Banks have come under particular pressure on worries about their exposure to eurozone debt. The exception is France's Cac, which has edged up 0.36%.

Meanwhile the disappointing data was not confined to the eurozone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down around 0.3% after a lower than expected rise in weekly jobs figures and a drop in factory orders.

Joshua Raymond, market strategist at City Index said:

With most economic data out today missing forecasts, investors have shown little motivation to add further risk and have instead moved to minimise their exposure ahead of Friday's [US non-farm] payrolls.

He has also taken a look at the FTSE 100 during the summer months, and concluded the omens for the market are not good (shades of the old 'sell in May and go away' chesnut):

Since 1998 the FTSE 100 has lost an average of 2.87% between May and the end of August, whilst the FTSE has fallen ten times out of the last fourteen years for the same period.

The eurozone must take two controversial steps if it is to solve the current crisis, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of the world's largest bond manager PIMCO.

In an article published on Business Insider and Project Syndicate, he says Germany must play an even larger role in co-ordinating the eurozone's response to the crisis, even if many Germans are uncomfortable with this idea. This is because the EU institutions such as the European Central Bank now lack the authority and credibility to do what is necessary.

Second, the eurozone has to clarify what it will look like in the medium term. Either politics dominates economics, which would involve large subsidies from the core to the periphery. Or if economics prevails, the eurozone would have to opt for a smaller union of countries with similar conditions.

Not easy, of course, but El-Erian says if some solution like this is not found, the eurozone will continue to see recurrent bouts of instability, which will end up eroding even its strongest member, Germany itself.

Read more here.

More signs of weakness in the world's largest economy. New orders for US factory goods fell 1.5% in March, their biggest fall for three years. Aircraft orders dropped sharply while cars and vehicle parts were flat after rising 1% in February. This has just added to the downbeat mood in the markets.

Wall Street is following Europe lower after the day's disappointing data.

As well as the eurozone manufacturing and unemployment figures, the weekly ADP jobs data from the US also came in below expectations, as we reported earlier. The ADP survey showed that 119,000 new private sector jobs were created last week, much lower than forecasts of 177,000.

Analysts tend to look carefully at these figures for some guidance on the non-farm payroll numbers due on Friday, although the fact is that the correlation is a little erratic. Annalisa Piazza at Newedge Strategy said:

The ADP outcome is softer than expected and it marks the weakest reading since September 2011. Should the non-farm payrolls track the ADP outcome, they would come in at around 100,000 in April, lower than the expected 161,000 (median forecast). Note that the non-farms and ADP reports are not always perfectly correlated.

That said, today's ADP report suggests some moderation across all the major components. In details, manufacturing payrolls have been contracted for the first time since the start of the year. As for the services sector, the ADP shows a 123,000 increase in payrolls, following a 158,000 increase in March.

So the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 70 points in early trading, having touched a four year high on Tuesday. The FTSE 100 is now more than 1% or 65 points lower, while Germany is down 0.5%. France, however, is bucking the trend with a 0.5% increase.

Here's some analyst comment on the news that Belgium wasn't actually in recession:

Steven Vanneste of BNP Paribas:

The GDP growth in Belgium is quite a big surprise, as we expected a contraction of 0.2 percent in the first quarter. I think that the external sector could be a main driver of growth, with some exports going outside the EU, where growth is already picking up.

Ivan van de Cloot of Itinera Institute

If you spoke to business managers, then they were much more negative than in 2009, although you had no scenario as hard as that....The technical recession which we appeared to have had was only very slightly negative, but it was in the heads of people.

And with Wall Street shares falling at the start of the New York trading day, its probably a good time to hand this over to my colleague Nick Fletcher. Cheers all. [exit stage left, snuffling and sneezing]

Here's a snap from Evangelos Venizelos's press conference this morning - looking a bit like a fisherman describing 'the one that got away'.

Amid all the gloom, we have some good news from Belgium!

Its economy grew by 0.3% in the first three months of 2012, according to data just released. And data from the third quarter of 2011 has also been revised higher, to 0% growth from -0.1%.

That means Belgium was not officially in recession, as thought, and only suffered one quarter of contraction (a 0.1% fall in Q4 2011).

So there are only seven eurozone countries in recession -- Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands, Ireland and Slovenia.

Sony Kapoor of the Re-Define think tank believes that today's poor economic data underlines the urgent need for a 'growth compact', rather than maintaining the current focus on austerity in the face of shrinking euro economies.

Kapoor said:

The question is how long EU leaders will continue to pursue a deeply flawed strategy in the face of mounting evidence that this is leading us to social, economic and political disaster.



With catastrophic unemployment levels in Spain, Portugal and Greece that are still rising, the real question is, how long before the social fabric gives way?

Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, recognised the need for a policy change last month, when he told the European parliament that the contractionary effects of Europe's austerity drive were "starting to reverberate". The ECB will hold its next meeting on monetary policy tomorrow, but analysts do not expect any new action this month.

Kapoor, though, insists there's no time to waste:

The EU needs a growth compact more than anything else in order to stem the downward spiral of falling growth, rising unemployment and weakening banking systems that has currently taken hold.

There's a rumour swirling around the markets that a clutch of Spanish and Italian banks are about to be downgraded by Moody's.

Shares in UniCredit and Unione di Banche Italiane have just been suspended for the second time, driving the main Italian index down by 2.7%....

CHATTER ON MOODY'S TO DOWNGRADE 17 ITALIAN BANKS — Russian Market (@russian_market) May 2, 2012

Moody's has been expected to conclude a review on Italian banks by the middle of May, so it's plausible that we could get news from them soon....

New employment data from America has also disappointed the financial markets. The weekly ADP data showed that 119,000 new private sector jobs were created in April last week , much lower than the censensus forecasts of 177,000.

That's enough to renew fears that America's recovery is slowing down -- sending the FTSE 100 to a 47 point loss for the day (it's now down 0.8% at 5764).

My colleague Nick Mead has created this map of youth unemployment across Europe, based on today's data.

It shows the wide variance in jobless levels for under 25's across the EU - from 7.9% in Germany to 51.2% in Greece.

Evangelos Venizelos, Pasok leader, is giving a press conference in Athens now. Foreign media are apparently not allowed in, but reporters at the scene say Venizelos began by warning that there is a risk of a return to the drachma.

That's very much the message he gave in this week's interview with the Guardian's Helena Smith. She comments:

Venizelos's pointed remarks about the return of the drachma, which everyone had hoped was consigned to history, lays bare as never before the fear that Greece may yet fall ove the edge, says Helena.



Senior aides I spoke to both before and after being granted an exclusive interview by Venizelos said data coming in from polls had been deeply troubling.



"Greece may have been brought back from the edge of the cliff from which it was hanging before the PSI [debt restructuring] and loan agreement but our

worry now is that if the polls are right and Greeks vote the way they seem determined to do, it could fall off" a senior adviser said.

The much-awaited recapitalization of Greece's banks will also be discussed at today's Greek cabinet meeting, the last one before the current government quits (see also 11.21am).

Helena Smith explains that recapitalisation of the Greek banking system – a major part of the second €130 bn package of rescue loans agreed for Greece by the EU, ECB and IMF, its 'troika' of creditors – is the last unattended issue in Papademos' in-tray.



With liquidity now seen as the key to kick-starting growth and re-energising the cash-starved Greek economy, the outgoing prime minister is eager to resolve the issue before his government formally winds down. Senior sources said €18bn of the agreed €50 bn due to be injected into banks has already arrived at the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF), an offshoot of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). If all goes well, the installment could be dispatched to Greece's four largest lenders – the National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank and Eurobank EFG -- by mid-week next week, if not before. "The framework of the recapitalization of banks will be a central point of discussion at the cabinet meeting," said another of Papademos' closest aides. "In the coming days banks will submit their subscription agreements with the EFSF. Our hope is to complete this process as soon as possible, even before the elections, that is to say Friday." Once they receive the long-overdue injection of money, the lenders will immediately be able to begin refinancing the cash-starved Greek economy where more than 250,000 small and medium sized businesses have been forced to close. Readers will recall that Greece's four main banks reported disastrous financial results earlier this month with group losses, after tax, surpassing €28bn, mostly as a result of the banks' (enforced) participation in the country's unprecedented debt restructuring - a massive bond exchange that shaved over €100bn from Greece's debt pile and is still described by Greek officials as the "biggest financial experiment in world history." With publication of the losses, the lenders were compelled to declare that they had gone into negative equity capital.

A couple of notable moves in the credit rating world. Standard & Poor's has raised Greece's credit rating to CCC, from SD (selective default). They're a bit late to the party - Fitch and Moody's both acted soon after the debt swap was agreed.

S&P also had good news for Latvia, which it has upgraded to BBB-. That gives it an 'investment grade' rating for the first time since 2009. S&P welcomed the fall in Latvia's deficit to 3.5% of GDP last year, from 8.2% in 2010.

Signs that the crisis is escalating....

Italian financial stocks are being routed today, while the yield on German sovereign debt has hit a new record low.

Shares in Unione di Banche Italiane, Italy's fifth-largest bank, were briefly suspended amid a rush of selling, and have fallen more than 7% today. The FTSE MIB, the main Italian stock market, is down almost 2% right now.

This has left traders dashing into the usual safe havens, which drove down the yields (the measure of rate of return) on German bonds to record low levels. Two-year bunds were yielding just 0.074%:

German bond yields fall to record low: 30YR 2.331%, 10YR 1.631%, 5YR yield 0.579%, 2YR 0.074% — Linda Yueh (@lindayueh) May 2, 2012

Some politicians like to boast about securing record low interest rates, but when investors are piling into low-yielding debt, it's a sign they don't see growth elsewhere.

The euro has dropped by almost a cent against the dollar, since the twin blows of poor manufacturing data and record unemployment.

It's trading around $1.314 at present, its lowest level since the start of last week. Jennifer Hau, currency strategist at Lloyds, reckons it has further to fall, saying:

The PMI numbers were pretty dreadful ... There is clear pressure on euro/dollar now and it is looking likely to fall towards $1.31, the lower end of the recent range.

News in from Greece where our correspondent Helena Smith says four days before the crisis-hit country goes to the polls, ministers in technocrat prime minister Lucas Papademos' interim government are preparing to formally resign.

The former European Central Bank vice president will today chair his last cabinet meeting, almost six months since assumed power.

Helena writes:

After a hurly-burly six months in office marked by the high drama of securing a second €130bn financial aid package for Greece, and the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in world history, Lucas Papademos will today preside over his last cabinet meeting in office. The mild-mannered economist, who has told aides he hopes to be returning to the Ivory Towers of academia (students have already signed up to his course at Harvard's JFK School), will ram home the message that there can be no let-up in reforms, senior officials say. "We will discuss the measures, already agreed with our creditors [the EU and IMF], that have to be prioritized before June," said one well-briefed aide referring to the €11.5bn in savings the new Greek government must make to ensure that the rescue loans keep coming in. "We will also formally hand in our resignations which will be officially accepted when the new prime minister takes over." Depending on the election's outcome, of course.....With polls suggesting that no party will win a clear majority, formation of the new cabinet may end up being a tortuous affair as Greece's feuding political parties attempt, as looks likely, to forge a workable coalition government. Polls last taken before a ban on all public opinion surveys went into effect 15 days before the election, pointed to a mass haemorrhaging of support from mainstream forces as Greeks turn to fringe parties advocating anti-austerity policies on the left and right.

Portugal's borrowing costs rose at an auction of short-term debt this morning.

It sold €1bn of 12-month bills (repayable in May 2013) at an average yield of 3.908%, up from 3.652 at the previous auction. The interest rate on €500m of 6-month bills also crept a little higher, to 2.935% from 2.9% last time.

The youth unemployment rate across Europe climbed again in March, as young people continued to bear the full brunt of the economic crisis.

Eurostat reported there are now 5.516m adults under the age of 25 out of work across the European Union, putting its youth unemployment rate at 22.6%, up from 21% a year ago.

Within the eurozone, the youth unemployment rate jumped to 22.1% from 20.6%, with 3.345m adults under the age of 25 out of work.

This excellent graphic, created by Scott Barber, Reuters financial graphics editor, , shows youth unemployment across key European countries over the last two decades.

The eurozone unemployment rate has hit a new record high, adding to the tide of bad news that's swept over us this morning.

There are now 17.365m people officially out of work across the 17 countries which use the euro, Eurostat reported. That pushed up the jobless rate to 10.9% in March, the most since the single currency was created. This equals the recent record set in early 1997 (comparable data only goes back to 1995).

The number of jobless across the Eurozone jumped by 169,000 in March after rising 140,000 in February and 184,000 in January.

Across the European Union, there are now 24.7 million men and women out of work.

Markit's verdict on today's manufacturing data is that the core of the eurozone is now suffering the full force of the economic crisis.

Chris Williamson of Markit commented:



Austerity in deficit-fighting countries is having an increasing impact on demand across the region. Even German manufacturing output showed a renewed decline, attributed by many firms to weak demand from southern Europe. As such, it is hard to see where growth will come from in coming months, unless export demand picks up strongly from countries outside of the Eurozone. The ECB's latest forecast of merely a slight contraction of GDP this year is therefore already looking optimistic.

Manufacturing output across the eurozone as a whole fell to a 34-month low in April, with most countries suffering lower activity (see 8.54am for some of the key data).

This dragged down the eurozone manufacturing PMI to a 34-month low of 45.9.

Crucially, the 'core of the eurozone' suffered as badly as the peripherery. Here's a table showing the key numbers, with just two countries coming in above the 50 point mark - and the four largest economies all shrinking.

Austria: 51.2 4-month low

Ireland: 50.1 2-month low

Netherlands: 49.0 3-month low

France: 46.9 2-month high

Germany: 46.2 33-month low

Italy: 43.8 6-month low

Spain: 43.5 34-month low

Greece: 40.7 2-month low

The implosion at Greece's factories is actually gathering pace.

Its manufacturing PMI slumped to 40.7 in April, from 41.3, which means the sector moved even further away from growth (a reading of 50 would have meant it flatlined). The data disappointed City experts who hoped that Greece's economic decline might finally be flattening out.

So much for my "hit bottom" theory RT @EKourtali: Greek AprilPMI falls to 40.7 (vs 41.3 in march), new orders, jobs, drop sharply (RTRS) — P M (@Pawelmorski) May 2, 2012

Here's a snap verdict on the latest Eurozone data -- the recession is even worse than we feared, and the pressure for a 'growth strategy is only going to intensify.

This graph shows how the region's manufacturing output has slumped in recent months.

More gloom. The Italian unemployment has leapt to 9.8% for March, the highest level since the current index began in 2004.

Youth unemployment was particularly bleak, with the jobless rate among 15-24 year olds rising to 35.9 in March, from 33.9%.

The latest German unemployment data has also missed expectations.

The number of people out of work rose by 19,000 in April to 2.875m, on a seasonally adjusted basis. That puts the unemployment rate at 6.8% - still well below the eurozone average - but a little higher than economists had predicted. They had expected a 10,000 drop in the seasonally adjusted jobless count.

New manufacturing data from across the eurozone has just been released, and it's pretty poor.

Italian and French factories have suffered their biggest drop in new orders in three years, while Germany's manufacturing output shrank at its fast pace since July 2009.

Italy's manufacturing PMI* has slumped to a six-month low of 43.8 in April, down from 47.9 in March. That means that the sector shrank at a faster rate (any number below 50 = contraction).

The French manufacturing PMI is little better. It came in at 46.9 for April - slightly higher than March's 46.7, but well below economist's predictions.

Ditto Spain, whose manufacturing PMI fell to 43.5 in April, down from 44.5 in March. That means the Spanish manufacturing sector has been shrinking for a full year.

And for Germany, its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2, from 48.4 in March. That's a 33-month low.

* - Purchasing Managers Index, released by Markit, based on interviews with executives at businesses across a sector

Europe's stock markets have posted early gains as traders get back to work after May Day. The German DAX and the French CAC are both up around 1.5%, with the Spanish IBEX and Italian FTSE MIB gaining around 0.5%.

It's not so cheery in the City, where the FTSE is down 9 points (after a 75-point rally yesterday).

We'll soon see if the latest economic data from the eurozone knocks the markets. As Michael Hewson of CMC predicted this morning:

The one positive is likely to be German unemployment data which has run contrary to the rest of Europe's unemployment data for months now, slipping as it has to post reunification lows of 6.7%. Another drop is expected in April with a drop of 10k expected.



There the good news is expected to end because the Eurozone unemployment is expected to rise further, with a March figure rising to 10.9%.

Canada's finance minister has a simple message for Europe's leaders today: "Fix your own mess".

In an opinion piece published in Canada's National Post today, Jim Flaherty argued that Europe has the resources it needs to resolve the debt crisis itself, and that its relative wealth means it has no place looking overseas for help.

Here's one of the key quotes:

We cannot avoid the question of fairness. Eurozone members benefit from increased exports and price stability. Spreading the risks of the eurozone around the world, while its benefits accrue primarily to its members, is not the way to resolve this crisis. We cannot expect non-European countries, whose citizens in many cases have a much lower standard of living, to save the eurozone. Further, the IMF, with roughly $400-billion, already has adequate resources to deal with imminent needs.

Flaherty (the longest-serving finance minister in the G7) was pretty clear that Europe has botched the crisis (many readers may agree, but it's unusual to hear it spelled out so bluntly by a senior politician). He said Canada has been rewarded for its actions with a solid AAA credit rating, while the eurozone has fallen short:

The "muddle through" approach has led to an erosion of confidence in public leadership and too many missed opportunities.

Worth noting that the IMF said last month it was concerned about Canada's rising household debts, with interest rates pegged low. Flaherty's recent budget included spending cuts and public sector job cuts.

We already knew that Canada would not contribute to the IMF's new firewall to protect the world economy from the euro crisis. But perhaps most alarmingly for Europe, Flaherty also argues that its influence within the IMF should be curtailed. As Europe controls 34% of the voting rights, major decisions about resources dedicated to Europe should "require more than a simple majority".

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone debt crisis.

Overnight, Canada's finance minister Jim Flaherty has blasted Europe for failing to fix its debt crisis. In a blunt attack on European leaders, Flaherty said they were wrong to expect the international community to bail them out, and reiterated that Canada will not provide more funds for the IMF. More on this shortly.

After the drama of May Day, it's a normal working day across Europe again. European stock markets are already gaining in early trading, having missed yesterday's bounce.

With Greece and France just four days away from crucial elections, there should be plenty of action in both countries.

Also coming up, new manufacturing data for the eurozone, as well as the latest unemployment stats.