Meet Heisman Trophy Hopeful Cody Kessler

Playing football on the West Coast, specifically at USC, has many perks. The weather is great, there is a rich football tradition, the occasional game at the storied Rose Bowl, and did I mention the weather. There is one drawback, people on the East Coast can’t watch the games because they start so late, and end even later. Very few New Yorkers are staying up past one in the morning to see a USC game live from Pullman, Washington. Due to this possible lack of exposure, allow me to insure that everyone is introduced to USC starting quarterback Cody Kessler, a quiet Heisman candidate.

For the uninitiated, Cody Kessler is a 6’1 215lb redshirt senior from Bakersfield, California. Kessler has been the starting quarterback at USC for the previous two seasons, and is poised to lead the Trojans again in 2015. In 2012 Kessler had an impressive 100% completion rate, and rode that success to the starting job the following season. As the starter in 2013 Kessler steered the Trojans through a tumultuous season that ended with a respectable 10-4 record and a #19 ranking in both the coaches and AP polls. Individually that season, Kessler was the Las Vegas Bowl MVP and also won USC’s Bob Chandler Award.

2014 was Kessler’s breakout year. He completed 69.7 % of his passes for 3,826 yards and 39 touchdowns against only 5 interceptions. His completion percentage was 3rd in the nation, while the 39 touchdowns were 4th best that season. Kessler also had the 4th highest Quarterback rating in college football during 2014. However, the increased success for Kessler did not translate into more team success for USC. The 2014 Trojans finished 9-4 and were ranked #21 and #20 in the Coaches and AP polls respectively. The team lost to crosstown rival UCLA, beat national rival Notre Dame, and ended the season on a high note by winning their bowl game against Nebraska. Some 2014 individual highlights for Kessler were, a 7 touchdown game against Colorado, 400 yards passing against Washington State, and 5 passing touchdowns in the first half against Notre Dame. Kessler’s play earned him All-Pac 12 honorable mention and recognition as a finalist for the Manning award and the Unitas Golden Arm Award.

On the heels of such a successful 2014 season, Kessler is a 2015 pre-season all American, and a potential Heisman candidate. With Kessler at the helm the Trojans are a preseason top ten team, and have visions of a playoff berth dancing in their heads.

Now that Kessler’s history is out of the way, and since this is football and a team’s success is almost directly correlated to quarterback play, it is time to dive deep into Kessler’s 2014 numbers and see what they project for 2015.

Yes, Cody Kessler’s overall statistics last season were great, but by breaking down those stats a better picture can be drawn of what really transpired last year and help make performance predictions for this year. When 17% of a player’s touchdown passes are against Colorado, a closer look is necessary. Expanding on that stat, in 9 games versus unranked teams in 2014 Cody Kessler completed 71% of his passes for 2,889 yards 35 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Those numbers are fantastic, and a player with Kessler’s skill and talent should be able to perform against lesser teams. In his 4 games against ranked opponents Kessler completed 67% of his passes for 936 yards 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The bright spot in comparing these two sets of games is that Kessler’s completion percentage against ranked and unranked teams is consistently high. The rest of the numbers are not as favorable for Kessler. His yards per game are dramatically lower against ranked teams, and he only averaged 1 passing touchdown per game against the ranked teams. Another knock on Kessler is that his yards per attempt against the ranked teams was only 6.6 yards. That is not a good number. Not surprisingly USC lost 3 of the 4 games they played against those ranked teams.

The comparisons between ranked and unranked opponents may not be very favorable for Cody Kessler, but all is not lost. He was #1 in the nation at converting 3rd downs between 4-9 yards last season, and he also converted the most first downs in those situations. Translation, USC was in a lot of 3rd and long situations last year and Kessler turned those 3rd downs into first downs.

What does all this mean for Cody Kessler and the 2015 USC Trojans? Kessler should once again dominate lesser competition. There is no reason to doubt he will put up great numbers against teams like Idaho and Arkansas State, but the real guesswork is in how Kessler will perform against ranked teams this year. Since Kessler is another year older, wiser and more experienced he should probably fair better in games against ranked opponents. Being 22 and playing against 19 year olds is an advantage pundits forget at times. This is also the first time Kessler has had the same coach in back to back seasons, so that familiarity with the scheme and system should also help him in tougher games. An improved performance against ranked teams will also be aided by his ability to complete passes, and his knack for completing those passes on long third downs.

The USC Trojans will go as far as the strong arm of Cody Kessler will take them. If everything goes right along the way, there is every reason to think that Kessler will lead the nation almost every major passing stat and garner numerous accolades along the way, maybe even the Heisman.