Keep up the work, Army! I’m seeing some nice winning scores out there. Don’t be shy about posting screenshots of your winnings. It’s not bragging amongst Army members. Your comrades want to see you succeed, and so do those of us writing and trying to help the beginner. In fact, we want to see players playing for the first time post their winning scores because it shows us, and others, how great the Army is. It shows how much more fun it is to #Learn2Build your own lineups rather than taking the lazy route and buying them from sellers. I’m not into hollow feelings. I want full satisfaction………just ask my wife. (Cue rimshot)

We have a split slate today. Lets jump on the early games for you…..

Your early slate has 7 games with some heavy pitching favorites and some great run totals coming out of Vegas. It’s a really fun looking slate of games here.

I will include how to read the chart at the bottom of the article for newer readers. Otherwise, let’s get out our forks and knives and rip into this perfectly cue’d piece of meat.

PITCHERS

Clayton Kershaw (13000) – There is a rule of cash now that is popular industry wide…..”Just roster Kershaw in cash and don’t think about it.” This is the Westbrook with no Durant rule for MLB. I don’t always subscribe to that rule, and today is one of those days. I don’t blame you for doing so, but I don’t hate you for pivoting to other favorites.

Max Scherzer (12000) – This is the logical pivot. Both carry elite strikeout stuff. Both are pretty heavy Vegas favorites, though Kershaw is almost 3:1, but neither team is striking out at a clip I lick my chops for. Either pitcher, in my opinion, is fit for cash or GPPs on this slate.

David Price (10900) – Price might slip under the radar today being that he has the highest game total of the elite pitchers, but it’s not like it’s a high total to caution against. The Rays are middling for strikeouts and this is in Fenway, so I lean away from him today given other options…………….which makes him a nice GPP play for sure.

Johnny Cueto (9900) – Here is the third I’d consider today. To me, the rest are just bad choices. Cueto can strike batters out with elite stuff. Arizona is striking out most frequently of the three matchups. Vegas likes this game, too, giving SFG a strong -160 moneyline. I have no issues with Cueto here either as long as there’s no history of D’Back bats hammering him around.

Pick your poison. I really don’t have an issue with either of the four today. However, with three very strong options here and a fourth that is strong in it’s own right, if you roster against them, I think you are pretty stupid. This is enough differentiation alone to win you a GPP with the right bats.

If looking for DraftKings, I might look at rostering one of the bigs with Cueto first and see if I can work bats around them with some other strong value plays. Look for some regular bats to get some rest on day games before the weekend series and travel. You might see a late LU release that includes a couple near min-priced bats slide into 2-holes and whatnot. But, if you are looking for another pitcher on this slate, I might look at Cueto or Scherzer as my #1 and pick from a crapshoot at my #2. My issue is the gap is so large from #1 to #2 today that Odorizzi does pop out a little, but I’d rather try double-high pitchers first. I really don’t like punting a pitcher because I’m likely choosing from a mediocre game or having to go directly against one of the heavy strikeout pitchers on the slate. DK puts you in a tough spot today for sure.

CATCHERS

Jonathan Lucroy (2900) – Miller Park, cleanup hitter, facing mediocre pitcher……..no question best catcher on early slate dollar for dollar. I likely don’t need to share much about numbers for you to see this. Big pricing gap between FD and DK (indicating DK thinks this is a good pitching matchup favoring Lucroy) along with a nice FD price, too.

Also consider: Chris Ianetta (SEA), Geovany Soto (LAA)

1st BASEMEN

Chris Carter (2900) – Miller Park again with mediocre pitching. We can target this game for some value bats. If you can’t tell I’m going to be looking cheap for bats to squeeze the stud pitchers in there.

Adam Lind (2100) – Look no further than here for a cheap bat if you are rostering Kershaw. It’s not a terrible spot for Lind. I just wish he was making a little more noise in that SEA lineup. But, $2100 doesn’t need to do much for you and it probably allows you another $3500+ bat elsewhere. A Lind/Ianetta mini stack would certainly be lower owned in GPPs.

Also consider: Jose Abreu (CWS), Pujols (LAA), Ortiz (BOS) – GPP

2nd BASEMEN

Scooter Gennett (3000) – Hitting 2nd and with some pop, this is a nice spot for Scooter to get some production on your stat sheets today for sure. If you look at pricing gap indicators like I do, Scoots is $4100 on DK.

Brian Dozier (2900) – Another huge price gap. You should be well aware of Dozier’s ability. He didn’t do a lot for us yesterday, but I still believe it’s only a matter of time with him. I like the mini-stack of Nunez/Dozier yet again today.

TIP: A lot of MLB is staying with a stack through a series instead of bouncing around chasing points all the time. For example, you know Chris Davis in Baltimore is going to hit 40-50 homers this year. If he starts hitting them, you might just roster him for a few days with your eyes closed. You might not predict which day he will hit one, but you can bet he’ll hit a couple for you that week.

Also consider: Cano (SEA), Panik (SFG), Kipnis (CLE)

SHORTSTOP

Eduardo Nunez (2900) – Another cheap-ish bat in a nice spot in a nice park today. This guy has been white hot and is bound to cool off, but he didn’t have a fabulous night last night and before starting to look elsewhere, I might need that horse to buck me once or twice more……or until he leaves Miller Park.

Tyler Saladino (2000) – PUNT WATCH! If Saladino gets the start, he might be worth rostering again when looking at pitchers like Kershaw on the slate. He might hit 2-hole and will be facing an aging Jered Weaver who has been less that special so far this season.

Also consider: Seager (LAD), Crawford (SFG), Rollins (CWS), Villar (MIL)

3rd BASEMEN

Yunel Escobar (3000) – This is attacking Danks with a multi-tool hitter. He’s not hot this week, but he’s got some serious talent.

Todd Frazier (3700) – We can’t save money everywhere today. Serious pop in his bat and looking to feast on weak pitching. If rostering weaker priced hitters, you need double dong power and Frazier gives it to you in a not-so-bad spot today.

Also consider: Duffy (SFG), Hill (MIL)

OUTFIELDERS

Joc Pederson (2800) – In a day we look for value, this is double dong pop in the cleanup hole facing a mediocre pitcher. I know he’s not what he was early last season, but Pederson’s talent is still in there somewhere.

Nori Aoki (2600) – Speed at the top and a good split matchup facing a righty, Aoki leads off for SEA and faces a pitcher we are certainly not afraid of. I’ll take 5 or 6 ABs please. Occasionally, he will swipe a bag and/or put one in the bleachers.

Seth Smith (2600) – This is one of my favorite value plays when he gets to hit in the top portion of the order. Vegas gives us a fair total and another sneaky stack would include Aoki/Smith as your 1-2 punch at the top of a lineup. And, for $5200 combined? Not terrible at all.

Also consider: Sano (MIN), Pence (SFG), Santana (MIL), Span (SFG), Taylor (WAS)

Now that the Early games are rolling, let’s start peeking at the evening games, shall we?

First thing’s first. Here is the overview graphic….

Initially, I’m looking for Arietta even in CIN’s ballpark. I’m also going to target TOR/BAL, HOU/TEX, and maybe round out some LUs with the Yankee game. Royals might be in play, but based the Vegas view I’m not seeing much for DET in a neutral park. I’m going to look at the Pirates pitcher, and I’m wanting to go with some Cubbies in CIN too, though. Let’s see what happens as I dive deeper into some numbers and matchups…..(that’s really all you need that graphic for). For what it’s also worth, the highest team totals on board are KC, HOU, and BAL tonight. Would sure be interesting to stack KC bats with some other players.

WEATHER NOTE: This one is interesting. We only have the CIN game to worry about and it happens to have the best pitcher of the slate in it with some great bats. If you look at hourly forecasts, you will see 89% chance at 6pm. Then, it drops at 7pm to 33%. This indicates a line of thunderstorms moving through. I would be inclined to think they will delay the start. This is what we want because Arietta can work around that by delaying his starting routine. We don’t want a delay in the 2nd inning that lasts 2 hrs. For one, it messes with Arietta. For another, this is the first game of a 3 game set and a divisional game at that. I don’t think they hesitate to call this game instead of delay it if the radar looks backfilled with rain. If it was the last game of a series, or the only time these teams meet, I think they are more inclined to wait it out instead of cancel the game. The call will be yours, but that’s my thinking on what may/may not happen.

PITCHERS

Jake Arietta (12100) – Unquestionably the ace of the slate. However, with some concern over weather and his price tag, and the Reds tending to put the ball in play instead of swinging through it, and you might look elsewhere. Elite strike out stuff and scouts around the majors calling him “unhittable” right now, sure makes you want to just take the chalk and move on.

Garritt Cole (9700) – This is my pivot, though. With weather above, I’m not as worried…….but this looks to be more of a sure thing. SDP tends to swing and miss, Cole has decent K-stuff, and the park certainly favors pitching. Add in the cost savings of $2400 and you might actually have the chalk for tonight with the bats you can upgrade around Cole instead of Arietta.

Edison Volquez (7900) – Wanna load up on bats? This is where I’d go if I wanted to really cheapskate out here. It’s not a bad decision, either. Volquez is in a pitchers park, if only slightly. DET misses some, but not something we necessarily target. Vegas likes the game. It’s risky because DET can do damage and Vegas seems to think runs are coming. Not a bad GPP risk to pair with KC bats and hand pick some studs from a few other games.

If I was DK, I’d be Cole/Volquez in a snap. Chalky, but I have no need to punt a pitcher when saving like this. In a GPP, though, I might look Volquez, Keuchel and stack HOU bats. They have been quiet lately and I’ve been patiently waiting for them to go off in TEX.

CATCHERS

Evan Gattis (2400) – Hits a little lower in HOU order, but has power in a power stadium. He also draws an uninspiring AJ Griffin. Another HOU catcher to look at is Jason Castro, listed below. Quick note there, Castro has 2 bombs in 14 ABs vs Griffin…..so, if you’re a BvP guy, you look there for sure.

Salvador Perez (3200) – A bit pricey for Perez, but if rolling out Volquez and stacking KC, he’s your boy. I noted above that KC has the highest team total on board tonight vs Pelfry. It’s of note Pelfry didn’t get hammered like we thought in his last start but, if at first you don’t succeed…………

Also consider: Vogt (OAK), Weiters (BAL), Martin (TOR), Castro (HOU)

1st BASEMEN

Chris Davis (4200) – High team total, uninspired pitching, hitter’s ballpark, plus one of the elite power hitters in the game today? Order up the double dong potential…..it’s right here at first base! Not rocket science with this pick. It doesn’t need to be.

Eric Hosmer (3300) – Another good spot for another great hitter. I’m not calling any double dongs off KC bats, but there’s a high chance Hosmer finds himself at the plate multiple times tonight with runners in scoring position. Gimme a double and a multi-hit game and I’ll like things just fine for the cost savings over Davis or Encarnacion.

Also consider: Morales (KCR), Encarnacion (TOR), White (HOU)

2nd BASEMEN

Jose Altuve (5000) – Getting pricey, but he’s also hot. I might run with him in a KC stack of value bats to grab solid exposure to the only guy hitting in HOU lately. But, if I run Arietta, I’m not going to be able to roster Altuve for sure.

Omar Infante (2500) – I’ve never recommended this schmuck twice in all my days, much less in the same week. But, you need to look at his BvP numbers against Pelfry. Omar will look like Nomar tonight if there’s validity to the BvP thing. Seriously, I’ll let you go look at them. Just be courteous and spray with air freshener after you shit yourself…..

Also consider: Schoop (BAL), Kinsler (DET), Zobrist (CHC)

SHORTSTOP

Troy Tulowitzki (3100) – Look, he’s slowly heating up. I don’t know how much longer Tulo can suck before we hear he was hurt the whole time or we just get off him altogether. But, you can’t argue the power and with men on in front of him……man, it feels like Brian Dozier. I almost can’t wait to stack them together soon.

Carlos Correa (4300) – Cooled off a bit, but still has the double dong power in a game that might just explode. Kid hits for doubles and in the heart of a powerful order. If I have money left to spend, I’m not afraid to burn some duckets right here.

Also consider: Escobar (KCR), Hardy (BAL), Russell (CHC)

3rd BASEMEN

Mike Moustakas (3600) – This is honestly a bit pricey for Moose. But, he’s in one of the best spots of all 3rd basemen tonight. If stacking KC, I’d be tossing in some Moose Pellets for sure. I’m not likely punting 3rd base tonight.

Manny Machado (4800) – Ok, this one is obvious, but you know by now BAL is in a good spot tonight. But, Manny’s numbers for this matchup right now are just eye-popping. If I don’t take Crash Davis, I might be taking Machado. Either are likely premeir players tonight above 4k.

Also consider: Donaldson (TOR), Valbuena (HOU), Castellanos (DET), ARod (NYY)

OUTFIELDERS

Colby Rasmus (3500) – This dude’s price just won’t go up. I love it as long as he hits heart of HOU order and keeps popping the OPS. Hard not to just stack the whole HOU outfield of Rasmus, Springer, and Tucker tonight. But, Springer is a tad pricey, honestly. If you want to look at the DKPG, look no further than Preston Tucker, it might be the biggest gap tonight.

Lorenzo Cain (3800) – Here is your other easily stackable Royals player with Infante tonight. Cain’s numbers against Pelfry, while smaller sample size, are also quite good. Royals are cheap, and I’m not afraid to stack them up the more I look at this stuff. I tossed Alex Gordon down below, too.

Dexter Fowler (3800) – For what this ignitor does in the Cubs LU, it’s just hard not to auto-roster him. Only weather, in combo with HOU/KCR outfielders, is keeping me off this guy. Power, speed, nice hitting eye…..dude kind of can do it all. And, lately, he has been doing it all.

Michael Saunders (3200) – Still a tad too cheap for his production since moving to the leadoff spot. I haven’t talked much about the Blue Jays today, but they are firmly in play and stackable. It’s a nice spot for them tonight, too.

Also consider: Bautista (TOR), Tucker (HOU), Jones (BAL), Rickard (BAL), Gordon (KCR), Burns (OAK)

How to read the graphics above:

Home and away teams are pretty simple. Pitchers tend to pitch better at home.

Weather matters huge in MLB. Green is good, red is bad. Anything over a “5” should give you pause in rostering a pitcher. Hitters aren’t as affected, but warming up and shutting down and warming up and shutting down isn’t something managers like to do to their pitchers. Any delays will shorten the “lifespan” of your pitcher and affect the opportunity he has to score you points. A “0” indicates a dome team.

Favored team according to Vegas. Vegas P gives the moneyline and by how much the favored team is favored. The bigger the number, the better our pitchers has a shot at earning the win. I typically look for a number larger than 150. Vegas B shows how many combined runs Vegas is projecting the hitters to score. For hitters, the bigger the better. For pitchers, the smaller the better. The last thing you want is your pitcher on the mound in a slugfest.

Park Factor is a rating assembled by combining historical numbers of runs and home runs scored over the past few seasons. This rating is expressed in comparison to the “average” ballpark. Average is a score of 100. The greater the difference from average, the more the park favors hitters (greater than 100) or pitchers (less than 100). This number is not foolproof, though. For example, if we assembled a team of weak hitters and had them play half their games in a great ballpark, we would undoubtedly see a suppressed ballpark factor rating. But, it does give us a great idea on a given slate where we may/may not see runs scored. Use in conjunction with the Vegas B column. If you see a green number in both columns, you can consider rostering hitters from that game.

In researching pitchers, I want a heavy favorite in Vegas, a red number in Vegas B, and good weather. I also want to see a ballpark that’s bad for hitters, if possible. That’s really about it to narrowing down my list of choices for who I’ll start as a pitcher.

In researching hitters, I want a green Vegas B number, good weather (but it doesn’t have to be perfect), and a hitter’s park to play in, if possible. But, mostly I want terrible pitching on the mound. This is indicated by high run totals (green Vegas B) and even the Vegas P column because a team that is heavily favored “can be” facing terrible pitching. But, that’s getting a bit specific for this quick-hitting column. That simple graphic can really tell you a lot in 30 seconds.