After a brief summer break (hope you got some good beach books in—anyone else read Bad Blood_?) House Party is back to help you navigate the midterms._

While you were at the beach, Axios found a GOP-penned list of almost 20 investigations into the Trump administration that Democrats could begin if they win control of the House. I know what you’re thinking: Only 20? But it shows just how high the stakes are as we head into the midterms. As you may know, Democrats need to pick up 23 Republican-held seats to hold the House for the first time since 2010. Outlets like UVA’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, and 538 provide rough measures of the state of play at the moment, but if you want to dig a little deeper, what are the key seats to watch as November approaches? Let’s try to game that out, starting with a few assumptions on what a Democratic majority would look like:

Democrats Will Hold on to All Their Current Seats

This isn’t a given, even in a wave election. But it seems unlikely Republicans will try to make a serious play for any Democrat-held seats when they can win just by putting all their resources into defending the ones they already hold. Taking a quick fly-by of the most vulnerable Democrat-held seats:

In Minnesota’s two rural Trump-won seats that have been vacated by Democrats there has been little polling, but Republican candidates have posted weak fundraising numbers and there’s been little outside spending on the GOP’s behalf. In the First District even conservative hacks are down on their nominee, while in the Eighth Democrat Joe Radinovich has experience in tough elections.

In Nevada’s two swingy suburban open House seats Republicans have already given up on Danny Tarkanian, and though they're still supporting Cresent Hardy, he only won during what was a historically good year for Republicans, especially in Nevada.

The Pennsylvania redistricting decision scrambled the idea of what new seat is represented by which incumbent, but I’d assume that all the Pennsylvania Democrats win their re-election campaigns (including Conor Lamb).

Republicans Will Abandon at Least a Dozen Races

A ten-seat majority is just as good as a 23-seat one. So why would Republicans bother to put too many resources into defending seats where they’re overextended? The first step in figuring out where the battle for the House will come down to is to look at the ground they’re likely going to concede to Democrats:

There are three open seats—NJ-02, PA-05, and PA-06, where nobody expects them to put up much of a fight.

Per numerous media reports, incumbents Rod Blum (IA-01), Barbara Comstock (VA-10), and Jason Lewis (MN-02) aren’t going to get any help from the national party.

There are six other open seats that are held by Republicans but that Hillary Clinton won: FL-27, CA-39, CA-49, PA-7, AZ-02 and WA-08. The only one that Republicans have yet to show a serious appetite to defend is CA-39, where Clinton won by 8 but where Latino turnout historically drops during midterms (and there does seem to be a real problem with Latino turnout this year). But a poll released by Democrat Gil Cisneros showed him up by 11, and he can self-fund against any Republican attacks on him. Ultimately it’d be far cheaper for Republicans to defend other seats.

There are two GOP-held open seats, NJ-11 and MI-11, where Donald Trump won with only 50 percent or less and Republicans have shown little taste for a big fight. In New Jersey Mikie Sherrill is one of Democrats’ most touted recruits nationwide, and in Michigan they put up a former chief of staff to the auto rescue against a Republican described by the Detroit Free Press as “the sort of candidate former Republican House Speaker John Boehner had in mind when he complained, in a recent appearance in Michigan, that the GOP has devolved into a personality cult with few coherent principles.”

Assuming Democrats hold on to all their seats and win the 14 listed above that’d get them to 209 members in the next House, nine short of a majority. And of those 209 there’s still a chance that scandals and other missteps could cost Democrats a seat or two. On top of that, even though the following seats aren’t gimmes quite yet, Democrats feel good about their chances in the following:

Assuming Democrats win all but three of all the seats above (as noted above they aren’t a lock yet for any of them), they’d need to win six more to take control of the House. Accordingly, you’d want them to take at least half of the next dozen races to be on track to take over the chamber:

For now those are what I’d term the Decisive Dozen, the group of House races Democrats want to win at least half of if they’re on track to win the chamber back. Each week we’ll look at the race for the House and how it manifests itself in those most decisive seats, which are always subject to change. Just ten weeks to go.

Correction: An earlier version of this piece stated that Tom Malinowski was attacked by his opponent because he wanted to close Guantanamo Bay. In fact the negative ad went after his support of granting habeas rights to detainees. VICE regrets the error.

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