It's not too difficult to predict the ACC. You know why? Because road teams don't win! Road teams are now 8-22 in ACC play and six ACC teams (out of 15 total) have all eight of those wins. Notre Dame and North Carolina each have two, and Notre Dame is the only team left without a road loss (one of just two ACC teams without any loss). All but one of the teams with at least one road win are in statistician Ken Pomeroy's top seven ACC teams in terms of minutes continuity (guys in similar roles as they were in the year before, instead of just measuring average years of experience). The one outside that top 7 is Florida State, and the Seminoles - who have already won at Virginia and are certainly for real - will have to re-center themselves emotionally after a big win when they travel to the Smith Center, a place North Carolina has yet to lose this year. Meanwhile, Duke will travel to Louisville and try to keep a road game within single digits in spite of a limited roster, and NC State...well, the Wolfpack had better find a way to beat Georgia Tech. Because...yeah.

NO. 7 DUKE (14-3, 2-2) AT NO. 14 LOUISVILLE (14-3, 2-2)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Somehow, Duke and Louisville have still only faced off a total of three times since Louisville joined the ACC, and Louisville is 1-2 against Duke in that span. And none of the games have been works of offensive brilliance by the Cardinals - Louisville has shot 15-of-59 from three (25.4%) and had one of its six worst offensive performances (per Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency) in two of the three games. Gotta make shots, as the saying goes, and Louisville hasn't against Duke. And their defense has been effective against Duke in all three games - it has been Louisville's offense that has let them down.

HOWEVER...

This Duke team has struggled quite a bit in transition, and Louisville would love to get easy basket opportunities rather than face a set defense. And even in a set defense, Duke's defense has not been the same without Amile Jefferson on the interior. Duke will have to control the offensive glass and get back on defense against Louisville, refusing to give the Cardinals anything easy and try to make them into a jump-shooting team. Louisville will have to force Duke into mistakes - Duke doesn't turn it over much, but Louisville thrives on forcing them (which should lead to transition chances).

Duke's not going to lose every ACC road game it plays this year, and it's going to beat some good teams. The Blue Devils will need its offense to be its best defense in this one. When they score points the way they're capable, it puts a lot of pressure on opponents to do the same. And it's not hard to make Louisville make poor decisions on offense. But can Duke do enough? And will Louisville's endless parade of talented athletes who pressure you nonstop on defense just be too much?

THIS GUY

Jayson Tatum. This tweet probably best describes the talented freshman's performance on Tuesday night in Tallahassee:

He’s singlehandedly put Duke behind and singlehandedly keeping them close, if that makes sense. https://t.co/wVKheIJL3S — Ben Swain (@TheBenSwain) January 11, 2017

Pomeroy's numbers say Tatum only ended 26% of possessions when he was on the floor for Duke, but it felt much higher. Probably because he finished 7-of-17 shooting and had four turnovers to no assists. It felt like no matter what, when Tatum got the ball he was going to attack and look to score. Tatum is a very good player and when he drives, he has generally been effective but nothing was working against FSU. He's going to have to be gently reminded by someone - teammates, interim head coach Jeff Capel, someone - that both he and this Duke team are better when they share the ball and make the smart play. BUT that doesn't mean he should go into a shell and not try to make plays on his own. He's going to have to balance that aggressiveness with the team concept. Because Duke certainly needs him.

HERE'S A GUY

Quentin Snider. Louisville's junior point guard is having sort of an up and down year as a offensive player for the Cardinals, but he's been more up than down lately and especially in league play. On the season, he's shooting just about 37% from two and 37% from three but in league play, it's 40% from two and 56.2% from three (9-of-16). Having a shot-maker is huge for the Cardinals, and his assist rate is good too (so is his low turnover rate). Good point guards have given Duke trouble and Snider has certainly been great lately. He'll have to keep being steady and stay out of foul trouble, one of his strengths but tough to do against Grayson Allen.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss: Duke fans

Louisville Win:

Louisville Loss:

PREDICTION

Duke, 76-69. Call it a feeling.

NO. 9 FLORIDA STATE (16-1, 4-0) AT NO. 11 NORTH CAROLINA (15-3, 3-1)

Time: 2:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Florida State is the least experienced team in terms of Ken Pom's minutes continuity stat to have an ACC road win this year. That's because the Seminoles are very good. Particularly on offense, where they have mismatches all over the court and athleticism and skill for days. North Carolina head coach Roy Williams knows this, and has already been thinking about it this week.

Talked to RW this morning. He told the team if they played D vs FSU like they did vs WF the Heels would get a "30 point rear end kicking" — Jones Angell (@JonesAngell) January 12, 2017

But from an intangible perspective, this is a young-ish FSU team going on the road in league play (a place that has been a minefield for everyone) against a very capable team on both ends. Oh, and this FSU team is coming off of a big win over Duke.

From an actual analytical perspective, North Carolina is going to have to defend without fouling. That was the reason for Wake's comeback in the second half, and it's the only thing UNC's defense has struggled with consistently this year. The Tar Heels don't get to the foul line enough to offset it, and FSU is No. 1 in ACC-only free-throw rate. So even if FSU has a sloppy or poor performance in other facets, if UNC fouls them a lot, they'll keep them around. The Tar Heels have to control the boards, keep turnovers low and try not to get hurt too much by the mismatches FSU can present all over the court. Oh, and stop penetration. Without fouling. Did I mention stop fouling?

THIS GUY

Xavier Rathan-Mayes. We already know one guy who isn't afraid of the Smith Center. FSU's junior point guard dropped 41 points in his last trip to the Dean Dome on 14-of-26 shooting (5-of-11 from three) and he averages 35.5 points in two games against UNC in his career so far on 22-of-42 shooting (12-of-20 from three). His team lost both of those games, a fact that I'm sure the ultra-competitive Rathan-Mayes remembers. And he's no longer the focal point of the FSU offense because of his talented teammates, but he's capable of carrying his team when they need it. He's had two 20-point games in league play so far and has gotten to the foul line at least four times in each game, dishing out 16 assists to just three turnovers. So he's been steady and consistent and everything this team needs. Roy Williams will likely call XRM a "load" to deal with, and if he's too much of one on Saturday, he could be the difference.

HERE'S A GUY

Isaiah Hicks. Remember when Isaiah Hicks couldn't stay out of foul trouble? Well, okay, he still can't. But he's managed to stay out of it long enough for the Tar Heels to have him for at least 20 minutes in three of four ACC games so far, and he's had double-digits in points in two of the four, including averaging 13.5 in the last two games on 10-of-15 shooting (7-of-7 from the foul line). He's picked up at least four fouls in all but one of UNC's ACC games this year, but his 16 points at Wake in 23 minutes were a big reason the Tar Heels held on in that one, as his 16 points were his most since the win over Chaminade back in November. When the Tar Heels looked like a machine. That's not a coincidence, and particularly with freshman big man Tony Bradley likely out with an injury (or at least limited), the Tar Heels need Hicks to stay on the court and stay out of foul trouble in this one.

NARRATIVES

Florida State Win: State champs?

Florida State Loss:

North Carolina Win: Just like football?

North Carolina Loss:

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 90-79. This will be fun for awhile, but I think the Tar Heels pull away.

SUNDAY

GEORGIA TECH (10-6, 2-2) AT NC STATE (12-5, 1-3)

Time: 6:30 p.m.

TV: ESPNU

#ANALYSIS

Oh, Georgia Tech got another ACC win? Maybe if they lose to Georgia Tech at home by fewer points than they lost to Boston College, Mark Gottfried will tell us once again that his team got better in spite of the loss. Somehow, I very much doubt he will take that approach, but it didn't stop him after a ghastly loss in Chestnut Hill on Wednesday night. The loss itself wasn't ghastly - it wasn't good, but stuff happens on the road in the ACC - it's everything else surrounding it that made it bad. Context matters, and getting blown out by 51 by your rival and then following it up with a flat performance on the road at a team you should beat is, well, bad. And fans are understandably frustrated. This team will get it together, but will it happen in enough time for it to matter?

I don't like to throw this out there, but this is a must-win. Luckily for NC State, Georgia Tech - in spite of having one more ACC win than NC State - is still not good. So win this game, State. Just, figure it out. Win the game.

THIS GUY

Ben Lammers. So lately, Georgia Tech has remembered that their talented and much-improved seven-foot center exists. Which is why they're 1-1 in their last two games! Lammers has averaged 23.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in that stretch and attempted 15.5 shots. That last part is key. Get your guy the ball, Georgia Tech. He's your best player. NC State has some size and depth inside that some of us thought would serve them well in ACC play, but that hasn't been the case yet. Lammers is a legit big who's going to make their lives difficult and they have to try to do the same to him. There's like four NC State big men and yet there's only one...Laminator.

HERE'S A GUY

BeeJay Anya. The senior center has seen double-digit minutes in all of NC State's ACC games so far. He has a grand total of nine rebounds through four games. He does have four blocked shots, but he also has 12 fouls, six turnovers and one assist. Slice the numbers any way you'd like, Anya has to come up big in this game. Anya can still make a difference as a rebounder and a shot-blocker (and just a post defender) with his size and length, and NC State will need him to be a force for good in this game. Omer Yursteven isn't there yet, Ted Kapita has hit some sort of a wall and Abdul Malik-Abu is falling in love with long two-point jumpers. Anya is more or less still who he is, though, and that's good for State if he plays up to his potential.

NARRATIVES

Georgia Tech Win: Oh so you thought this was the easy game on your ACC schedule huh

Georgia Tech Loss:

NC State Win: The pendulum always swings back

NC State Loss:

PREDICTION

NC State, 79-63. Wolfpack takes care of business, averts disaster.

_

NO. 19 VIRGINIA (12-3, 2-2) AT CLEMSON (11-5, 1-3)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

As good as Clemson looked entering ACC play, the Tigers have just one league win and it came at Wake Forest. And it required a 15-0 run late. (Not that any win on the road should be dismissed in this league, but just for the sake of context.) And Clemson has lost three in a row. Boy, do the Tigers need this one badly. Not that Virginia doesn't. Clemson is going to have to rebound better than it has been - they're 12th in offensive rebounding percentage in ACC games only and 14th in defensive rebounding percentage - because Virginia's defense will make it tough to make first-chance shots. Oh, and you know, just make any sort of shot, would be my suggestion to Clemson. Make shots. Virginia's defense is still tough but it isn't impenetrable this year, and hte Cavaliers have been prone to droughts on offense. But if you play dumb basketball against Virginia, they will crush you.

NARRATIVES

Virginia Win: So are you going to be good this year or what

Virginia Loss:

Clemson Win:

Clemson Loss: Just couldn't quite hang

PREDICTION

Clemson, 67-61. Because they're due?

MIAMI (11-4, 1-2) AT PITTSBURGH (12-5, 1-3)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

I don't know what to make of either of these teams, really. I wouldn't call either particularly trustworthy - especially Pitt on the defensive and and Miami on offense - but they're both...capable? Miami is shooting 48.9% from the foul line in ACC play. That is...ew. But Pitt is dead last defensively in most categories in league play anyway. Really Pitt is going to have to get hot from three, which it has done enough in league play, and make sure Miami doesn't get second-chance looks. Miami is going to have to...I mean, I don't know. Be less gross.

NARRATIVES

Miami Win: If no one watches this game will it have even happened

Miami Loss:

Pittsburgh Win:

Pittsburgh Loss:

PREDICTION

Pittsburgh, 74-68. When in doubt, pick the home team.

NO. 20 NOTRE DAME (15-2, 4-0) AT VIRGINIA TECH (13-3, 2-2)

Time: 2:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Notre Dame is winning, but not in the way we're used to seeing Notre Dame win. The Irish aren't really, um, making shots in ACC play. I mean obviously they make enough of them to win, and if you get them into a close game, they're going to make their foul shots (shooting nearly 82% in ACC play). But they're just eighth in ACC-only three-point percentage and 10th in two-point percentage. They haven't shot over 50% from two since their ACC opener, and their 41% eFG% against Miami on Thursday was their worst of the season. It just feels like at some point their cold streak will catch up to them, especially against a team in Virginia Tech that is pretty capable of making shots in their own right (especially at home).

NARRATIVES

Notre Dame Win: Sliding into Notre Dame's DMs like

Notre Dame Loss:

Virginia Tech Win:

Virginia Tech Loss:

PREDICTION

Virginia Tech, 81-70. I said at the beginning of this week that I thought the Irish would either drop their first ACC game at Miami or at Virginia Tech. So.

BOSTON COLLEGE (9-8, 2-2) AT SYRACUSE (10-7, 2-2)

Time: 4:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Ah yes, the revenge game that Syracuse has been waiting for since (checks calendar) January 1! This game was when we first realized that Syracuse might be bad. What we really know about Syracuse, though, is that they're much better at home. Boston College is frisky, and you have to make 3's to beat Syracuse which is one of the only things the Eagles do well consistently. But just thinking about those 13 sleepless nights Syracuse has had, lying in wait for the Eagles to come to upstate New York, makes me surer than ever that the Orange will have their revenge. Oh yes.

NARRATIVES

Boston College Win:

Boston College Loss:

Syracuse Win: Oh, NOW you can beat Boston College.

Syracuse Loss:

PREDICTION

Syracuse, 79-67. REVENGE!

Overall: 27-14 (17-10 ACC)

Last week: 10-4 (10-4 ACC)