Finally, a ray of sunshine peeking through that swirling mass of storm clouds. Make that two shafts of gold.

On Thursday, the jobless figures weren't all that bad. Not great, but not awful. Unemployment dropped from 5.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent.

And the following day, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kahuna Philip Lowe dumped a bucket on anyone entertaining any notion that we'd get a fourth rate cut next Tuesday.

An upbeat Dr Lowe declared to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) gathering in Washington that more cuts might be necessary but "I wouldn't assume it".

As for negative interest rates, the prospect was "extraordinarily unlikely".

"I think it's quite probable that we'll see a return to trend growth over the next year, which will be good … which will help get the unemployment rate down and gradually wages will pick up," he said.

But are we really through the worst of it? Trigger happy currency traders took heart. The Aussie dollar jumped nearly 1 per cent on the strength of the governor's remarks.

And yet, niggling doubts remain.

Rose-coloured glasses

Those encouraging comments seem starkly at odds with a range of warnings from local and global agencies.

For a start, it was the IMF that just last week sharply downgraded our growth prospects to just 1.7 per cent for this year — well below the RBA's rosy 2.5 per cent forecast — and urged the Federal Government to break out the cheque book.

Then there's the thorny issue of the RBA's recent chequered history when it comes to forecasting.

Until early this year, it was insistent we would see rate hikes as the economy turned around. And when it comes to wages growth, its record has been as disappointing as the pay rises many of us have never received.

Each year since 2011, it has repeatedly predicted a bounce in wages growth as this graph illustrates. While the coloured lines — the predictions - point wondrously to the north, actual wages growth has steadily headed south as charted by the sombre black line:

Wage price forecasts. ( Source: RBA, ABS )

To its credit, the Reserve Bank compiled and published this a while back as a monument to its own fallibility. The point is, any rosy predictions on the economy right now need to be taken with a large dose of salt.

Central bankers are powerful. Every utterance is capable of moving markets and even influencing consumer and business behaviour. Right now, it appears he is trying to calm household nerves, to jawbone a recovery.

But just as there are limits to monetary policy, endless upbeat comments start to wear thin.

While the housing market has bottomed and begun to recover after the three rate cuts since June, there is evidence consumers instead have been spooked by interest rates below 1 per cent. Consumer confidence now sits at a four-year low.

China to the rescue, again

For everything wrong with the global economy right now, it has done a remarkable job keeping us afloat.

Perversely, the damaging trade war between the US and China that has crippled exports from supplier nations throughout South East Asia and Europe, so far has worked to our benefit.

With its manufacturing sector shrinking, Beijing has been forced to again stoke the economy with ever more stimulus, to boost construction of even more unnecessary infrastructure and housing.

That's lifted demand for Australian iron ore, gas and coal. But even that hasn't been enough to stop a further erosion in China's growth. On Friday, its GDP slowed to 6 per cent per annum, the slowest in 30 years.

That in itself doesn't threaten our prospects. For as long as the trade war continues, and for as long as it continues to hobble China's economy, Beijing will have little option but to spur activity by pushing construction projects, to maintain employment and social stability.

That's good for our export performance and our economic growth as bigger volumes and higher prices lift our national income. In fact, China's stimulus plan contributed to a $4.6 billion company tax windfall last financial year that almost brought the budget back to breakeven.

It's a trend that has continued into this financial year. The problem here is that growth driven by stimulus, while it can continue for a long time, can't go on forever.

China repeatedly has tried to wean itself off its construction and investment growth model and revert to a more American-style consumer model. But each time, as the threat of a downturn kicks in, it reverts to building ever more empty apartments.

At some stage either it will enter a severe downturn or it will strike a deal with America that will deeply impact the Australian economy.

A slowdown at home — on homes

There are more immediate problems on the domestic front. Just the day before Dr Lowe's Washington address, RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle delivered some sobering news on our own construction situation.

"Much of the downturn in construction activity is still ahead," he said, noting approvals to build new homes were around 40 per cent lower than in late 2017.

"We are forecasting a further 7 per cent decline in dwelling investment over the next year and there is some risk the decline could be even larger."

Hardly comforting news. And it sits somewhat at odds with the optimistic picture being painted of our prospects in Washington.

Jobs numbers better but problems remain

Having a job and holding it. That's one of the main concerns among Australians to emanate from the ABC's Australia Talks series.

The good news from last week was that the unemployment rate slipped to 5.2 per cent. The dollar soared and the chances of a Melbourne Cup rate cut were slashed.

But the best performances were in the public sector. Private sector employment is looking weaker, particularly in manufacturing and construction. Most agree that the outlook for jobs remains sluggish at best.

While our politicians crow about the number of jobs created, they often forget to mention the growth in our population or the rise of part-time work.

That rise in part-time and casual employment has led to a vast lift in underemployment; workers who have a job but feel they are not getting enough work.

The graph below from investment bank Morgan Stanley shows the problem has increased significantly since 2015.

Labour force utilisation percentage. ( Source: ABC, Morgan Stanley Research )

The problem is particularly acute among our youth where both unemployment and underemployment has risen strongly in recent years.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates around 30 per cent of workers between 15 and 24 are underutilised.

No amount of upbeat comments will fix that.