Jean-Claude Juncker has in effect ruled out a widening of the Brexit negotiations next month to take in a future trading relationship between Britain and the bloc, despite an acknowledgement by senior EU officials that Theresa May’s speech in Florence last week was “full of concessions”.

“At the end of October, we will not have sufficient progress,” the president of the European commission said in Tallinn, Estonia, at a summit of EU leaders. “I’m saying that there will be no sufficient progress from now until October unless miracles would happen.”

Brexit talks: how things stand after May's Florence speech Read more

The newly re-elected German chancellor, Angela Merkel, also made it clear that she was not willing to go around the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, to intervene in the negotiations on Britain’s behalf, as many Brexit supporters had prophesied, although she praised May’s speech in Italy for “reviving” the talks.

Merkel described May’s request in the address for a transitional period after it leaves the bloc as “an interesting proposal”. Referring to a bilateral meeting with May in the margins of Friday’s summit, she said: “But today we talked about the first phase. And this first phase means to solve the Northern Ireland question, the rights of the citizens and the financial questions. There is progress here. We will surely follow the recommendations of Barnier.”

Brussels has long demanded “sufficient progress” on the so-called withdrawal issues before it fulfils the UK’s wish to move on to talks about trade. The UK had become increasingly pessimistic about meeting the commission’s original timetable and opening trade talks after a European council meeting on 19 October, but ministers had not yet entirely given up hope.

A senior EU source said of Juncker’s comments: “Mr Juncker is a commissioner. He believes in miracles.” But the official added: “If it will happen, it will be in December.” A European council summit of EU leaders is due to take place on 14 December.

Asked if Brussels expected any further concessions from the British prime minister at Tory party conference next week, the source said: “We believe in miracles. We are not hallucinating.”

The comments are likely to reinforce the British government’s fear that the European commission – the EU’s executive body – is acting as a block on progress, although there is still solid support from the member states for Barnier and his team. One British official suggested that some of the resistance to progressing talks lay in the EU not yet being ready, as 27 member states, to pursue a united position on trade.

This week, David Davis, the Brexit secretary, embarked on a charm offensive of senior ministers in Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark. British government sources said they felt a need to explain their position without the filter of the commission and Barnier.



Q&A What are the two phases of the Brexit talks? Show Hide The EU27’s negotiating guidelines for the two-year Brexit talks stipulate that they must take place in two phases: separation and “orderly withdrawal”, followed by future relationship. Only when the EU27 decide “sufficient progress” has been made on phase one can phase two begin.

Broadly, phase one is about providing “clarity and certainty” to people and businesses on Brexit’s consequences and agreeing a sum covering the commitments the UK made as an EU member: avoiding a legal vacuum, protecting citizens’ rights, solving the Irish border, and reaching a financial settlement. Phase two of the talks will then focus on agreeing the “framework” of the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU. A transition period can also be agreed as part of this second stage, but the detail of the future relationship can only be worked out once the UK has left. Britain wants to move to stage two fast, but in order to keep as much leverage as possible in talks on the future relationship aims to delay agreeing the financial settlement as long as possible. The EU27 are adamant that all phase one issues must be addressed to their satisfaction before any talk of the future relationship.

On Thursday, the EU negotiator hailed a “new dynamic” to the negotiations after May’s Florence speech, but suggested talks could remain in a stalemate for months unless the UK agreed to honour all its financial commitments and give concessions over the role of the European court of justice in overseeing the withdrawal agreement.

In a sign of the EU’s determination not to be dominated by Brexit, the summit in Tallinn also heard that the European council president Donald Tusk would draft some options for the future of the EU by the October summit, in reaction to the expansive visions set out by Juncker and the French president, Emmanuel Macron.

Macron said the European Union would be weakened if it agreed to discuss its future trading relationship with Britain before Brexit divorce terms are settled.

“If we accept speaking about life after [Brexit] we will open 27 debates on the future life that are profoundly weakening for the EU. That’s why the chosen method is the good one,” he said.

It was clear in Tallinn that May’s pledges on the divorce bill and citizens’ rights in Florence had been well received in Europe’s capitals. Speaking on Friday, the prime minister repeated her hope that the speech would give the talks momentum, which she hoped would be reciprocated in Brussels.

A Downing Street spokesman said May had reiterated that aspiration to Merkel. The spokesman said the German chancellor had welcomed the Florence speech and that the two leaders had agreed on the need to settle the issue of citizens’ rights “at the earliest opportunity”.

“The prime minister pointed to the commitment made in her Florence speech to incorporate the agreement reached on citizens’ rights fully into UK law and make sure the UK courts can refer directly to it,” the Downing Street spokesman added.

“The PM also stressed it was in everybody’s interests to agree to a time-limited implementation [transition] period once Britain leaves the EU, to provide certainty to businesses and others in both Britain and the EU.”

It is understood that Merkel is keen to understand more about the British government’s vision for the transition period. Berlin also wants to know what the future relationship with the UK will look like before it will agree to it, sources said, and would resist agreeing to one if it is only to give Downing Street more time to negotiate a trade deal with the bloc.

Separately, the Guardian has learned that Davis was passed a message from Berlin this week stating that there would not be any change in Germany’s position on Brexit following the German election, and that Merkel was not open to expending major political capital on fixing a deal. “To be fair, unlike Boris Johnson, I think he understands that,” said one source.

It is also accepted in Brussels, and across Europe, that the British government has been limited in what it has been able to promise before the Tory party conference.

One senior EU official described the conference in Manchester, where May will need to tread a difficult political line due to the divides in her party, as “an obvious barrier” and that things would likely change by the time the next round of negotiations started on 9 October.

The Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said May’s Florence speech had provided a bit more clarity but that both sides had to accept that the negotiations were “out of shape”.

She said: “Today we can say the negotiations are a bit behind schedule … We need to acknowledge to each other they are out of shape … We need to find a good solution, good for all.”

Addressing British troops stationed in Estonia earlier in the day, May said the UK was “unconditionally committed to maintaining Europe’s security”. More than 800 British troops have been in the Estonian town of Tapa since April, alongside Estonian and French forces.