As much as she might deny it, Karen Stintz is already off and running hard to unseat Rob Ford and become Toronto’s next mayor.

Although the election isn’t until October 2014, the TTC chair has clearly made up her mind to enter the race against Ford and Olivia Chow, the NDP MP who leads in early polls and is fully expected to join the campaign.

In the past few weeks, Stintz has begun in earnest to build her campaign team, which is led by an experienced Conservative election organizer, enlisted a new speech coach, recruited key policy advisers and kick-started a concerted drive to meet with senior local leaders in business, the media and community groups.

“The response to Karen so far has been terrific,” says the veteran political organizer who is heading her campaign in its initial stage.

“People like her theme of fiscal responsibility and they like the idea of having a mayor who knows they have to respect voters and respect the image of the city,” says the political consultant, who spoke only on condition of anonymity.

Stintz has long been seen as a possible mayoral candidate. First elected to city council in 2003 in Ward 16 Eglinton-Lawrence, she gained an early following for her vocal opposition to many of then-mayor David Miller’s initiatives. She considered running for mayor in the 2010 race, but didn’t feel the time was right.

During Ford’s early days in office, Stintz was considered a key part of his team. She said repeatedly that she would never run against the mayor.

How times have changed!

Now the mayor hates Stintz, mainly because of her opposition to his fanciful dream of building subways to Scarborough. Councillor Doug Ford calls his brother Rob’s decision to appoint Stintz as TTC chair his “biggest mistake” as mayor.

In the coming campaign, Stintz faces several tough challenges, including voter recognition, fundraising and the Fords.

The latest polls place her a distant third behind Chow and Ford, with barely 16 per cent support.

Despite his recent problems, Ford remains a formidable candidate with an unshakable core of supporters. In a crowded field, he would likely win re-election. To overtake him, Stintz must win the backing of enough centrist and conservative residents who voted for Ford in 2010, but are now fed up with the mayor, to overcome Ford’s 30 per cent hardcore supporters.

And to beat Chow, Stintz must prove she is a better “coalition candidate” than the left-wing NDP MP.

In recent weeks, Stintz’s team has developed a first-phase campaign strategy designed to carry her between now and early January when the race officially starts.

First, Stintz is working with a new Toronto-based speech coach. Stintz talks too fast and her voice is often shrill, something she acknowledges. The coach is training her to slow down and get her message out more effectively. In 2008, Stintz was criticized for spending $4,500 (U.S.) of her office budget for public speaking lessons from an American vocal coach.

Second, Stintz has selected her main election themes. She will campaign as a moderate conservative who is fiscally responsible, a city builder and a leader voters can respect. She backs the OneCity transit plan, a $30-billion, 30-year program to extend subway, LRT and bus service to the far reaches of the city, which she hopes will attract suburban support. Also, she will oppose jets at the Toronto island airport, a strategy to gain favour with downtown voters who once backed Miller.

Third, Stintz has pulled together an advisory team that will help develop a detailed campaign platform on everything from taxes to waterfront development.

Fourth, she has launched a program of private meetings with top executives from local media outlets, law firms and business groups. For example, she met earlier this week with local leaders at a private event at the Albany Club, a prominent Conservative landmark.

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Fifth, she is raising her profile by meeting with large and small neighbourhood groups. “We are getting her out as much as possible,” the campaign consultant said. “She is listening a lot and outlining her vision of the city.”

It’s an ambitious strategy and, with a bit of luck, Stintz may surprise a lot of skeptics.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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