by Aaron Schatz

On one side, a team coming off a losing season that finally put it all together thanks to the NFL's most powerful offense, led by a quarterback winning his first league MVP award.

On the other side, the NFL's dominant franchise, led by the league's best-respected head coach and possibly the greatest quarterback of all-time.

No, I'm not talking about the Super Bowl LI matchup of the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots this Sunday. I'm talking about the Super Bowl XXIII matchup of the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers at the end of the 1988 season. The similarities between the two Super Bowls are just too good to ignore now that Football Outsiders is finally ready to unveil the long-awaited DVOA ratings from 1986 through 1988.

Hopefully, we'll get another great close Super Bowl just like the one that followed the 1988 season. San Francisco won that game 20-16, and if you want to watch Super Bowl XXIII, it's one of the full games the NFL put on YouTube a few months ago.

The Super Bowl wasn't the only reason why the 1988 and 2016 seasons were similar. Just as in 2016, the 1988 season had no historically dominant teams according to DVOA. 1988 and 2016 are two of only five seasons where the No. 1 team in DVOA wasn't able to get above 28%. In 1988, this lack of great teams extended to win-loss records as well as DVOA ratings. No team was better than 12-4, and Dallas had the worst record in the NFL at 3-13. (We'll get to the Cowboys a little further down in the article.)

The Bengals and 49ers finished 1-2 in DVOA in 1988, and they were very close together. Trying to figure out which team was really better is hampered by the fact that each team had a colossal loss in the final two weeks of the season. In Week 15, the 11-4 Bengals went to Houston and got slaughtered 41-6. That put the 49ers in first place in DVOA, for one week... until San Francisco ended its season with a 38-16 home loss to the Rams. There seems to be a bit of historical confusion about how hard the 49ers were trying that day. They had clinched their playoff position, and a loss would put the Rams in the playoffs instead of the New York Giants. But all indications are that the 49ers played to win on that day, with starting Joe Montana and the rest of their stars. The Rams sacked Montana eight times before Bill Walsh pulled him for Steve Young.

The Vikings and Rams were right behind the Bengals and 49ers in the NFL's top four, and then there was a big drop to the rest of the league. The Rams and 49ers gave us what we didn't have this year, well-balanced teams at the top of the league. Both teams ranked in the top five for both offensive and defensive DVOA. But Cincinnati was an offensive juggernaut, and Minnesota a defensive force.

The Bengals had 30.7% offensive DVOA. That's not among the top ratings in DVOA history, but it is more than 10 percentage points ahead of second-place Miami. (The Dolphins were also dead last on defense, the story of Dan Marino's entire career.) MVP Boomer Esiason led the NFL with 37.5% passing DVOA; he was second in passing DYAR behind Marino, but only because Marino threw nearly 200 more passes. However, the Bengals offense really revolved around the running attack of halfback James Brooks and fullback/dancing fool Ickey Woods. Brooks and Woods each averaged over five yards per carry with over 180 carries apiece. They ranked first and second in both rushing DYAR and rushing DVOA. There were a number of games during the season where opponents were accused of faking injuries in order to slow down Cincinnati's no-huddle offense.

Meanwhile, Minnesota's defensive DVOA of -26.5% was twice as good as any other defense in the NFL. The gap between Minnesota and No. 2 Philadelphia was larger than the gap between Philadelphia and No. 19 Indianapolis. The Vikings are now the eighth-best defense of the DVOA era, knocking last year's Broncos down to ninth. Their pass defense DVOA of -38.4% trails only the 2002 Buccaneers and the 1991 Eagles as the third-best ever measured. The Vikings allowed a touchdown or less in six different games including four straight games near the end of the regular season. They had three defensive All-Pros: defensive tackle Keith Millard, cornerback Carl Lee, and safety Joey Browner. Their top pass rusher was Chris Doleman. Floyd Peters was the defensive coordinator, and his staff had a couple of assistants you know well: defensive backs coach Pete Carroll and linebackers coach Monte Kiffin.

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Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 1988, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league averaged based on situation and opponent in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

DVOA represents adjusted statistics. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent quality and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments. DVOA is a better indicator of team quality. VOA is a better indicator of actual wins. WEIGHTED DVOA gives a stronger consideration to games late in the season. Remember that, as always, defense is better when it is NEGATIVE.

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA NON-ADJ

TOT VOA W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 CIN 27.5% 29.0% 12-4 30.7% 1 0.2% 14 -3.0% 24 2 SF 26.6% 25.6% 10-6 12.8% 4 -11.4% 3 2.3% 7 3 MIN 24.9% 29.2% 11-5 -0.5% 17 -26.5% 1 -1.0% 17 4 LARM 23.8% 23.0% 10-6 16.4% 3 -8.9% 5 -1.5% 20 5 PHI 13.9% 13.7% 10-6 3.9% 10 -11.5% 2 -1.5% 21 6 CHI 13.8% 12.8% 12-4 4.5% 9 -10.8% 4 -1.5% 19 7 BUF 13.1% 14.5% 12-4 6.4% 6 -3.1% 12 3.7% 5 8 NYJ 13.1% 13.8% 8-7-1 6.1% 7 -0.2% 13 6.9% 1 9 NYG 9.7% 12.2% 10-6 0.5% 16 -7.8% 7 1.3% 11 10 HOIL 8.1% 12.0% 10-6 3.0% 11 -3.8% 10 1.3% 12 11 CLE1 7.2% 4.3% 10-6 -2.9% 19 -8.5% 6 1.7% 10 12 NO 4.3% 2.0% 10-6 1.0% 14 1.1% 15 4.4% 4 13 IND 1.3% 5.9% 9-7 2.6% 12 3.3% 19 2.0% 8 14 MIA -0.3% 0.2% 6-10 18.3% 2 18.4% 28 -0.2% 16 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA NON-ADJ

TOT VOA W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 15 WAS -1.1% -8.2% 7-9 5.0% 8 1.9% 16 -4.3% 25 16 PHX -6.2% -8.1% 7-9 6.7% 5 6.1% 22 -6.8% 28 17 PIT -6.5% -13.2% 5-11 -8.4% 22 -3.5% 11 -1.5% 22 18 DAL -7.9% -16.7% 3-13 0.6% 15 9.0% 24 0.6% 14 19 SEA -8.9% -4.3% 9-7 -2.0% 18 12.3% 26 5.4% 3 20 NE -9.2% -10.8% 9-7 -16.5% 26 -5.6% 8 1.7% 9 21 LARD -11.0% -3.6% 7-9 -13.1% 25 4.1% 20 6.1% 2 22 TB -11.3% -16.8% 5-11 -7.5% 20 2.5% 17 -1.2% 18 23 DEN -14.6% -4.6% 8-8 1.5% 13 13.7% 27 -2.3% 23 24 ATL -15.5% -15.0% 5-11 -12.8% 24 2.6% 18 -0.1% 15 25 SD -15.9% -10.7% 6-10 -8.9% 23 8.0% 23 1.0% 13 26 GB -22.4% -24.8% 4-12 -20.9% 27 -4.1% 9 -5.7% 27 27 KC -24.1% -21.9% 4-11-1 -8.4% 21 10.6% 25 -5.1% 26 28 DET -26.9% -29.5% 4-12 -24.6% 28 4.6% 21 2.3% 6

ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.

is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season. 1988 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#28, most negative).

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#28, most negative). PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed.

represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#28, highest variance).

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA W-L ESTIM.

WINS RANK WEI.

DVOA RANK

1988

SCHED RANK PYTH

WINS RANK VAR. RANK 1 CIN 27.5% 12-4 11.3 2 29.3% 2 -1.1% 17 11.0 4 16.5% 20 2 SF 26.6% 10-6 11.9 1 30.1% 1 -0.7% 16 10.2 6 8.4% 5 3 MIN 24.9% 11-5 10.9 3 26.6% 3 -3.2% 24 12.7 1 26.2% 27 4 LARM 23.8% 10-6 10.3 6 19.9% 4 -2.4% 22 11.1 3 11.8% 10 5 PHI 13.9% 10-6 9.9 7 14.7% 7 2.9% 7 9.7 7 14.2% 18 6 CHI 13.8% 12-4 10.5 4 14.5% 8 -1.1% 18 11.2 2 13.9% 17 7 BUF 13.1% 12-4 10.5 5 10.6% 9 1.0% 11 10.9 5 8.7% 6 8 NYJ 13.1% 8-7-1 9.8 8 10.2% 10 -1.2% 19 8.5 13 18.8% 21 9 NYG 9.7% 10-6 9.4 9 15.5% 6 -1.8% 21 9.6 8 10.3% 8 10 HOIL 8.1% 10-6 9.0 11 19.3% 5 1.0% 10 9.5 9 26.4% 28 11 CLE1 7.2% 10-6 9.2 10 6.0% 11 1.5% 8 8.5 12 15.6% 19 12 NO 4.3% 10-6 8.6 12 2.9% 12 0.4% 15 8.9 11 7.1% 2 13 IND 1.3% 9-7 7.6 15 2.4% 13 1.5% 9 9.1 10 3.5% 1 14 MIA -0.3% 6-10 8.2 14 2.1% 14 1.0% 12 6.3 20 12.2% 12 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA W-L ESTIM.

WINS RANK WEI.

DVOA RANK

1988

SCHED RANK PYTH

WINS RANK VAR. RANK 15 WAS -1.1% 7-9 8.2 13 -7.4% 18 4.8% 3 6.9 16 10.7% 9 16 PHX -6.2% 7-9 7.2 18 -11.6% 22 5.1% 2 6.6 19 13.3% 16 17 PIT -6.5% 5-11 7.4 17 -4.2% 15 3.5% 6 5.8 22 12.0% 11 18 DAL -7.9% 3-13 6.7 20 -11.3% 21 6.0% 1 4.7 28 13.2% 15 19 SEA -8.9% 9-7 7.4 16 -7.7% 19 -6.7% 28 8.3 14 19.0% 22 20 NE -9.2% 9-7 6.9 19 -6.1% 17 4.5% 4 6.8 17 23.9% 25 21 LARD -11.0% 7-9 6.5 22 -14.3% 24 -2.5% 23 6.8 18 12.4% 13 22 TB -11.3% 5-11 5.6 24 -5.5% 16 -1.2% 20 5.3 25 8.4% 4 23 DEN -14.6% 8-8 6.5 21 -18.7% 25 -5.5% 27 7.3 15 24.0% 26 24 ATL -15.5% 5-11 5.3 25 -13.6% 23 0.9% 13 5.7 23 21.4% 23 25 SD -15.9% 6-10 5.9 23 -8.4% 20 -3.5% 26 4.8 27 12.9% 14 26 GB -22.4% 4-12 5.1 26 -22.2% 27 0.4% 14 5.6 24 21.7% 24 27 KC -24.1% 4-11-1 4.4 27 -21.1% 26 -3.5% 25 5.9 21 7.3% 3 28 DET -26.9% 4-12 3.1 28 -29.4% 28 3.6% 5 4.9 26 9.2% 7

DVOA for 1988 is now listed in the stats pages:

Before going any further, I should mention that going back to the '80s means we're now going to the period of my life when I paid very little attention to the NFL. I have no memory of this stuff, so if I make mistake in recounting some of these historical items, I apologize in advance.

In addition, there are a lot of problems with the play-by-play of these games from 30 years ago. I have to give massive, ridiculous props to Jeremy Snyder for all the hard work he's done transcibing past seasons, and he's also done a ton of work trying to make the play-by-play make sense with the NFL's historical stat totals. At some point during this process, after the Super Bowl, I'll write an article about some of the clear stat errors we've discovered in the NFL's past, and why it is so difficult to make old play-by-play logs agree with currently listed career totals. If numbers here disagree with official NFL stats for 1988, that's a big reason why.

When breaking down the gamebooks from 1988, I did not just notice how much less detail there was in the play-by-play back then. I also noticed the really dramatic differences between the NFL game today and the NFL game back in 1988.

The most obvious difference is in completion rates for quarterbacks, which are dramatically higher in today's offenses. Only two qualifying quarterbacks in 1988 managed to complete 60 percent of their passes: Minnesota's Wade Wilson at 61.4 percent, and Cleveland's Bernie Kosar at 60.2 percent. By comparison, 26 different quarterbacks in 2016 threw at least 200 passes and completed 60 percent of them. Five different quarterbacks in 1988 managed to throw over 200 passes without completing even half of them. Nobody did that in 2016. In fact, nobody has done it in the NFL since Tim Tebow in 2011.

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More stringent rules on pass defense are one of the reasons for higher completion rates, but we also see those rules play out in the dramatic expansion of Defensive Pass Interference calls. Randall Cunningham was the beneficiary of 11 DPI calls in 1988. No other quarterback had more than eight. In the 2016 season, 12 different quarterbacks drew more than eight DPI flags. Derek Carr led the league with 19 and didn't even play the entire season.

Fumbles were much more prevalent 30 years ago, particularly on running plays. Thurman Thomas fumbled nine different times on carries in 1988, and 12 different backs fumbled at least five times on carries. This year, three backs tied for the league lead with five fumbles on carries. Fifty different running backs had at least 100 carries in 1988, and those backs averaged 3.4 fumbles apiece. This year, running backs with at least 100 carries averaged half that: 1.7 fumbles apiece. The number of running backs with that many carries is another difference. In 1988, 28 teams led to 50 backs with at least 100 carries. In 2016, with four more teams, only 42 backs had at least 100 carries.

Field goal numbers from 1988 look like people were playing a completely different sport. In 1988, kickers went 8-of-37 on field goals from 52 yards or more. That's worse than 25 percent. By comparison, this year kickers tried 105 field goals of 52 yards or more and hit 59 of them. The leaguewide field goal rate for 1988 was only 72 percent on kicks of any length, which demonstrates how the Los Angeles Raiders got completely screwed that season. Somehow, opponent kickers hit 27 of 29 field goals against the Raiders (93 percent) with misses from 39 and 51 yards.

The quick kick was still a real strategy back in the late '80s. John Elway and Randall Cunningham each punted three times that season. Against that awesome Vikings defense, Buddy Ryan had Cunningham punt on second-and-18 from the Eagles 14. Yes, second down, The punt went out of bounds 58 yards downfield at the Minnesota 28, which is a pretty good flip of field position, but still... second down?

The Eagles finished first in the NFC East, which wasn't as strong a division as it was this past year but was still pretty strong. The NFC East was so strong that the Dallas Cowboys could finish 18th in DVOA and still finish just 3-13. That's right, in the season that got Tom Landry fired, the Cowboys weren't really as bad as people thought. The Cowboys played the league's most difficult schedule by DVOA and went 1-5 in games decided by a field goal or less. It worked out for them in the long run, since that 3-13 record got them the No. 1 pick and Troy Aikman to play quarterback. But the Cowboys' reasonable DVOA in 1988 is particularly surprising given that they were by far the worst team the next season, 1-15 and dead last with -36.2% DVOA.

The flipside of the Cowboys would be all the teams of the 1988 AFC West, which may have been one of the worst divisions in NFL history. Seattle won its first-ever division title at 9-7, but they ranked 19th in DVOA and only outscored opponents by 10 total points during the season. But the Seahawks were pretty clearly the best team in that division. The other four teams all were outscored by their opponents. The Raiders ranked 21st in DVOA, the Broncos 23rd, the Chargers 25th, and the Chiefs 27th. Remember, that's out of 28 teams, not 32. Although the Raiders and Seahawks finished second and third in special teams DVOA, all five AFC West teams were among the bottom 10 teams in defensive DVOA. The following year, the Denver Broncos turned things around significantly and ranked fourth in both overall DVOA and defensive DVOA.

Now let's take a look at the best and worst players by position:

Quarterbacks: As noted above, Dan Marino and Boomer Esiason were 1-2 in passing DYAR. Jim Everett of the Rams, Bobby Hebert of the Saints, and Warren Moon of the Oilers rounded out the top five. Moon was actually second behind Esiason with 32.7% passing DVOA, but missed five games due to injury. Green Bay's Randy Wright was the worst quarterback of the year, and was benched at midseason for a 1987 10th-round pick named Don Majkowski.

Wright managed just four touchdown passes with 13 picks, but he's not the player whose bad year will really jump out at you when you look at the quarterback stats page. No, that would be Vinny Testaverde, who in his second NFL season threw a ridiculous 35 interceptions. (We list 34 on the 1988 quarterbacks page because we categorized one as a Hail Mary.) No quarterback in modern NFL history has ever surpassed this interception total. To find a quarterback with more picks, you need to go back to the early days of the AFL, when George Blanda had 42 with the 1962 Houston Oilers. Testaverde had at least three interceptions in more games (5) than he had zero interceptions (3). He had six interceptions in a 49-20 loss to Minnesota in Week 8.

Running Backs: There were some great running backs in 1988 for teams other than the Cincinnati Bengals. Two others had over 300 rushing DYAR, Roger Craig of the 49ers and Earl Ferrell of the Cardinals. Eric Dickerson, in his first full year for Indianapolis, led the league in rushing yardage but finished fifth in rushing DYAR. Earnest Byner of Cleveland and Kelvin Bryant of Washington tied for the league in receiving DYAR. Byner was a much better receiver than runner in 1988, ranking 48th out of 50 qualified running backs in rushing DYAR. Kansas City's Paul Palmer was in last place; he averaged 3.4 yards per carry against an easy schedule, and that's without deliberately dropping a few balls on the carpet.

One shocking result from the 1988 ratings is just how bad Bo Jackson comes out in his second NFL season. It makes some sense when you look at the standard numbers, because Jackson averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry in his other three seasons but 4.3 yards per carry in 1988. Jackson also played a very easy set of defenses, so he drops from 28th in rushing VOA to 44th in rushing DVOA. Jackson also has poor receiving numbers, somehow catching less than half of his 19 listed targets.

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Another strange combination of ratings belongs to the Minnesota running back committee. Starting halfback Darrin Nelson only had 112 carries in 13 games, but the Vikings had five different running backs with at least 40 carries. The top two, Nelson and Allen Rice, rank near the bottom in rushing DYAR for qualified running backs. (Rice averaged less than three yards per carry.) But the next two, Rick Fenney and starting fullback Alfred Anderson, rank 1-2 in rushing DYAR for non-qualifying backs, i.e. fewer than 100 carries. The fifth back, D.J. Dozier, also was much better than Nelson and Rice on a per-play basis.

Wide Receivers: Cincinnati's Eddie Brown had a carer year with 1,273 yards and 9 touchdowns, and that put him No. 1 in receiving DVOA and far ahead of the rest of the league with 412 receiving DYAR. The gap between Brown and No. 2 Ricky Sanders of Washington was larger than the gap between Sanders and No. 8 Anthony Carter of Minnesota. Denver's Mark Jackson also had a fantastic partial season. He ranked second in receiving DVOA and ended up seventh in DYAR despite playing only 12 games with only four starts.

Also, check out the proto-Wes Welker, Jim Jensen of the Miami Dolphins. Catch rate for these old seasons is somewhat questionable, since some official scorers did not always mark the intended receiver on an incomplete pass. (We're going to look into adjusting for this at some point.) Nonetheless, Jensen's listed 77 percent catch rate stands out. No other wide receiver with at least 20 targets was higher than 70 percent. Mark Clayton and Mark Duper, with the same official scorer for home games, were at 57 percent and 44 percent, respectively.

Right now, we have San Diego rookie Quinn Early and Atlanta's Floyd Dixon as the least valuable receivers of 1988. They each had a catch rate below 40 percent. But when it comes to high risk and high reward, they can't hold a candle to former track star Willie Gault of the Raiders. Gault averaged 24.5 yards per reception but had an absurd 24 percent catch rate. That's a new record for the lowest catch rate with over 50 pass targets, breaking 29 percent by Stephen Baker of the 1992 Giants.

Tight Ends: Mickey Shuler of the Jets and Steve Jordan of the Vikings were neck-and-neck at the top of the league. Pete Metzelaars of the Bills led all qualifying tight ends in receiving DVOA, but with only 45 pass targets. Keith Jackson, who led all NFL tight ends with 869 yards, was surprisingly near the bottom of the DVOA ratings, partly because he also lapped all other tight ends with 134 targets. Randall Cunningham was probably relying on Jackson a little bit too much.

It's also worth noting the excellent Los Angeles Rams two-tight end set, with two guys I don't remember in the slightest: Damone Johnson (seventh in DYAR) and Pete Holohan (fourth in DYAR).

Here are a few more fun tidbits about the 1988 season:

Enjoy this video where the original ESPN Sunday Night Football crew explains a replay decision and for some reason mentions the assistant to the official in the replay booth, some guy named Roger Goodell.

In Week 2, the Phoenix Cardinals ran a fake field goal with three seconds left in the first half, from the Dallas 24. It did not score.

Washington did that one better in Week 14 by running a fake field goal from the Philadelphia 27 with 11 seconds left in the game, losing by two points. It was an incomplete pass, which left Washington enough time to hit a 44-yard field goal and actually win. But what on earth was the point of the fake rather than just attempting the field goal to begin with?

In Week 12, the Eagles beat the Giants in overtime even though the Giants blocked Luis Zendejas' 31-yard field goal on the play. Clyde Simmons, a defensive lineman playing on the Eagles' field goal team, picked up the loose ball and ran it 15 yards for the winning touchdown.

In Week 9 against the Broncos, the Colts used defensive back Willie Tullis (a college quarterback) to run some option plays from the wishbone.

In the Week 16 win over the Raiders that gave them the AFC West title, the Seahawks ran two flea-flicker plays in the same quarter. Dave Krieg hit Brian Blades for a 21-yard gain on the first one and a 55-yard gain on the second one.

Somehow, Buffalo opponents went 10-for-10 calling the coin toss, including two playoff games.

Here's a great article by Dr. Z from the Sports Illustrated 1988 NFL preview issue, talking about problems with quarterback play around that time.

For the ultimate nostalgia trip, Jeremy Snyder actually put together a Year in Quotes from 1988. You can read it all here.

Housekeeping notes: