The final report of 2018 takes an early look at the weekend of February 22, 2019 — currently slated with three wide releases. We’ll offer up forecasts on the other two at a later date, but here’s our first analysis on the weekend’s marquee opener.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 50 million

PROS:

The franchise has proven very successful with two critically and commercially successful chapters in 2010 and 2014, earning a combined $395 million domestically.

Opening two weeks after The LEGO Movie 2 should provide just enough breathing room for this to serve as a strong family-friendly winter tentpole, likely opening well along the lines of the studio’s own Kung Fu Panda 3 ($41.3 million in January 2016).

The promise of a trilogy-capper helmed by returning director Dean DeBlois should bring back most fans of the series, especially the considerable adult segment of that audience.

Early social media buzz and Trailer Impact metrics are very encouraging.

CONS:

If LEGO Movie 2‘s word of mouth proves comparable with its own direct predecessor, that may cut slightly into Dragon 3‘s potential.

Similarly, Captain Marvel opens in Hidden World‘s third weekend and could leech some of the target younger audience.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor 1/4/2019 Escape Room $13,000,000 $32,000,000 2,700 Sony / Columbia 1/11/2019 A Dog’s Way Home $12,000,000 $40,000,000 2,900 Sony / Columbia 1/11/2019 Perfect Strangers n/a n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films 1/11/2019 Replicas n/a n/a n/a Entertainment Studios 1/11/2019 The Upside $13,000,000 $39,000,000 3,000 STX 1/18/2019 Glass $67,000,000 $180,000,000 Universal 1/25/2019 The Kid Who Would Be King $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Fox 1/25/2019 Serenity (2019) $10,000,000 $30,000,000 Aviron 1/25/2019 Untitled STX Action/Thriller n/a n/a STX Entertainment 2/1/2019 Jacob’s Ladder n/a n/a LD Entertainment 2/1/2019 Miss Bala $10,000,000 $28,000,000 Sony / Columbia 2/8/2019 Cold Pursuit $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit 2/8/2019 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $60,000,000 $213,000,000 Warner Bros. 2/8/2019 The Prodigy n/a n/a Orion Pictures 2/8/2019 What Men Want $25,000,000 $63,000,000 Paramount 2/13/2019 Isn’t It Romantic $14,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros. 2/14/2019 Alita: Battle Angel $14,500,000 $41,000,000 Fox 2/14/2019 Fighting with My Family n/a n/a MGM 2/14/2019 Happy Death Day 2U $24,000,000 $52,000,000 Universal 2/22/2019 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $44,000,000 NEW $155,000,000 NEW Universal 2/22/2019 Rhythm Section n/a n/a Paramount 2/22/2019 The Turning n/a n/a Universal / Amblin

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

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