SWEDEN seems idyllic to Munire, a 19-year-old Afghan asylum-seeker, and her two sisters. The three orphans travelled on their own from Iran, where they were living illegally and had no access to education. Now they live with a foster family and go to school while they wait to hear whether or not they can stay. But the respite may be short-lived. Unlike their brother, who has been a Swedish resident for several years, they could find themselves sent back to a country that, although their birthplace, is no longer their home.

The refugee crisis has created rifts in Europe between countries which have welcomed refugees, such as Germany and Sweden, and those which have not, such as Poland and Hungary. It has also exposed tensions in Europe’s asylum system as a whole. A well-designed and relatively effective process has, under the pressure of numbers, started to crumble. Afghans, the second-biggest group of migrants to Europe last year at nearly 200,000, are the most likely to lose out.

Asylum claims from Syrians, Eritreans and Iraqis are accepted at high rates across the European Union, at 97%, 87% and 85% respectively. For Afghans, the rate last year was only 69%. This prevents Afghans from being eligible for the EU scheme that relocates asylum-seekers in Greece and Italy to other countries, as refugees need to come from a country with a 75% acceptance rate. Those who try to make the journey themselves have become stranded, too. When tighter border rules came in at the end of February between Greece and Macedonia, Afghans were among the first to be refused entry, leaving thousands stuck in squalid tents on the border.

Many countries that were once generous to migrants, such as Sweden, have started to toughen up, with stricter rules on bringing over family members and getting permanent visas. As a result, acceptance rates for Afghans in most European countries have started to fall (see chart). Several countries are trying to dissuade Afghans from making the journey. German officials describe how they have put up billboards in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif, emblazoned with “Leaving Afghanistan—are you sure? Thought it through?” A small number have also been sent back: in February 125 Afghans voluntarily left Germany. Sweden is trying to negotiate a treaty with Afghanistan to make such returns easier, says Morgan Johansson, the migration minister.