Greece, the country at the centre of Europe's debt crisis, is about to enter a new era after achieving the biggest fiscal adjustment in global financial history, according to its finance minister.

Yannis Stournaras, writing for the Guardian's Comment is free site on the eve of a gathering of EU finance ministers in Athens, says years of gruelling austerity have finally paid off. "After four years of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, the Greek economy is beginning to show the first encouraging signs of rebalancing and recovery."

In a drama-filled vote on Monday, the Greek parliament passed key measures that will not only unlock further aid, but close seven months of tortuous negotiations with the debt-stricken nation's triumvirate of creditors at the EU, ECB and IMF. "Greece now faces the future with more optimism as it develops its new growth model," insists Stournaras, an Oxford-educated economist.

In a turnaround that few could have imagined at the height of the euro crisis, the minister says for the first time in six years, Europe's most troubled economy is poised for growth – ending what will go down as its worst recession since the second world war. "In the years to follow, Greece is expected to experience robust growth. Confidence is being restored. The economic sentiment indicator has reached the highest level in the last five years."

GDP is expected to rise from -3.9% last year to about 3% in 2016. Exceeding targets – and the forecasts of foreign lenders – Athens will record a primary budget surplus of about 1% of GDP in 2013.

"Since 2009, Greece's cyclically adjusted primary balance has improved by more than 20% of GDP," says Stournaras. "Again, there is no other case of such an adjustment in global financial history."

With Greece accepting to implement the far-reaching reforms, – many aimed at boosting the country's competitiveness – EU finance ministers will on Tuesday agree to a timeline for the disbursement of €11bn (£9.1bn) in rescue loans.

For prime minister Antonis Samaras's fragile coalition – whose majority in the wake of Monday's vote has been cut to a mere two – the new aid marks the end of Athens' dependence on international assistance. In a sign of further investor confidence, the government has pledged to return to international markets by the summer. Hedge funds have begun to move in. Retail sales are up and for the first time in years, large construction projects are underway.

But the nascent recovery is fraught with difficulty. The possibility of a third bailout has still not been entirely quashed. And with unemployment at a record EU high of more than 27% – and more than 60% among the nation's youth – talk of an economic success story for a large sector of the populace is rudely premature.

For many, fiscal headway has not been matched by progress on the ground. Almost five years after Athens was forced to turn to the EU and IMF to avert bankruptcy, the vast majority of Greeks are still suffering the effects of spending cuts and tax increases – the punishing price of receiving some €240bn in emergency funds, the biggest bailout in global history – with evermore at risk of poverty and social exclusion.

Stournaras, who is known for his sunny outlook, recognises the human cost involved. "It is a sad fact that the remarkable adjustment of the economy has come at an extremely high socioeconomic cost," he writes. "Since 2009, GDP has declined by approximately 25%. Such a reduction has never been experienced by a developed country with the exception of the United States during the Great Depression."

But he contends that with its restored competitiveness, Greece can forge ahead with its new outward looking growth model – one based on exports, innovation, privatisation and investment and not just tourism, despite the record numbers of foreign visitors the country is expecting this year.

With little headway made so far – and without additional debt relief – economists agree the prospects of a full recovery are slim. Greece, they say, will only be able to emerge from its worst crisis in recent history with the very concrete help of a 21st-century Marshall plan.