Poll says Biden keeps narrow lead in state, but Warren, Buttigieg gain in primary race Warren, Buttigieg show gains in race for Democratic primary

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If Illinois were to decide the Democratic nominee for next year’s presidential race, it would be Joe Biden.

At least today.

But the former vice president has lost significant ground to his opponents during the past four months, according to polling by Chicago-based independent company Victory Research.

Among those eligible to vote in the March Democratic primary — which will decide who gets the Democrats’ nod to face likely Republican opponent Donald Trump — Biden was the choice for 23.2%, according to Victory Research’s Illinois Poll.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is in second, at 17.4%.

She and Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, have shown gains since polling started in July.

Buttigieg moved into third place during the most recent poll, with 15.9% of registered Democratic voters giving him the nod. His momentum was enough to knock Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders down into fourth place, with 15%.

None of the other contenders in the crowded field received approval from more than 3.6% of those surveyed.

The Illinois Poll’s findings largely mirror national trends, which put Biden in the lead but recognize the distance between him and the other candidates is growing closer. In July, Biden had the support of 36.1% of those who responded to The Illinois Poll.

Poll analysts say Biden’s lead is based largely on the strength of his showing among African-American voters. While his support among those voters is down from 54.2% in July to 40.6% now, he still bests his nearest rival, Bernie Sanders, who is at 13.3%.

Biden also holds a substantial lead among senior citizens and leads in the geographic regions of Chicago, suburban Cook County, the collar counties and central Illinois, according to the poll. Buttigieg is tied with Biden in the northern Illinois region and Sanders has a slight lead over Biden in southern Illinois.

The poll of 1,200 likely Democratic primary voters across Illinois was conducted Nov. 22-25. The poll has a margin of error of 2.83%.