Written by Timothy Lewis (@MrTeeLew) — November 16th, 2017

In this weekly segment, I apply numbers to context in an effort to uncover plausible trajectories in the wild world of fantasy football. Last week’s segment had me covering Marvin Jones, Mike Evans, Kareem Hunt, streaming tight ends, and Robby Anderson. Welcome to Trends and Takeaways Week 11. Cheers!

Why the Falcons signed Devonta Freeman to a 5 year, $41 million contract when they have a more talented backup is beyond me. I’m not saying Freeman is bad. He’s quite good. It’s just that Tevin Coleman is better and that money could be distributed to round out the team more effectively. Coleman is the better receiver, the more efficient runner and the more explosive athlete. Let’s do a comparison:

Carries: Freeman: 116 — Coleman: 83 YPC: Freeman: 4.4 — Coleman: 4.8 Breakaway Runs: Freeman: 0.8 p/g — Coleman 0.9 p/g Receptions: Freeman: 19 — Coleman: 17 REC Yards: Freeman: 137 — Coleman: 203

The two are different kinds of runners. Freeman is shifty and elusive while Coleman is explosive and powerful. The numbers don’t lie, though. Coleman is more efficient in every aspect of the game. He averages more breakaway runs of 15 yards or longer, despite fielding 4 less carries per game. Per touch, Coleman averages 6 yards, good for 7th in the league and 1.2 more than Freeman. As long as his running mate is out, the “2” of the 1–2 punch is a workhorse that should be projected RB1 numbers. He may even carve out a larger slice of the pie upon Freeman’s return.

Perhaps not the case in terms of talent. Although it’s closer than some might admit in that regard, Adam Thielen is certainly the better fantasy football asset. He’s 7th in target share (28.8%), 7th in RZ target share (30.1%), 5th in targets, 6th in receptions, 3rd in receiving yards and 10th in yards after the catch. Those are stellar numbers. Diggs simply doesn’t hold a candle and it’s not because of his availability, which is another characteristic that has separated the two. Thielen averages nearly 2 more receptions per game and a whopping 3 more targets. Less of a possession receiver, Diggs excels catching the deep ball.

However, as you can see, Thielen is no slouch in this area himself. This is not a “bash Stefon Diggs” party. He’s awesome. At 90.9% on 11 targets, his contested catch rate is 1st in the league. His QB rating (when targeted) is 6th in the NFL at 136.9, compared to Thielen’s 101.4. The difference comes in volume of usage. Diggs’ stats suggest he should be the more heavily utilized as the two, but that isn’t the case. Because volume is the one true god in fantasy football, Adam Thielen should be a more valued asset than Stefon Diggs.

The evolution of the Patriots’ backfield

Signed: **** your fantasy team, love Billy B. (via Navy Live)

If there’s one thing we knew coming into the 2017 season, it’s that we can’t trust the Patriots when it comes to their running back rotation. There were Rex Burkhead guys, James White guys, Mike Gillislee guys, and even a few Dion Lewis truthers in the mix. Depending on the day, everyone has been right at one point. Mike Gillislee looked to be the 1 for 1 replacement of LeGarrette Blount in the first two games, racking up 4 touchdowns. Week 10 he was a healthy scratch. Meanwhile James White is 14th in the league in receptions. Yes, that figure includes receivers. It has been Dion Lewis that has roundhouse kicked Gillislee out of the lineup, showing surprising power between the tackles and proving to be one of the most elusive running backs in football. Still, he stands just 5’7”, weighing 195 lbs. Providing a balance between the receiving prowess of James White and the running ability of Dion Lewis, it has been Rex Burkhead who has emerged as New England’s most versatile option, increasing his snap share each of the past 3 games.

Burkhead certainly won’t blow anyone away with his speed, clocking a 4.73 40 yard dash. He does, however, show solid explosiveness and shiftiness, cutting upfield and fighting for yards. What he offers the Patriots is optionality in their play calling, both in the huddle and at the line of scrimmage. He can run routes out of the backfield, protect the QB, and hammer between the tackles. As a result, the 27 year old back will see the field early and often, giving him flex appeal on a weekly basis.

“What workload? Hold up lemme finish this set.”

Workhorses look at Le’Veon and get tired. His 28.8 touches per game lead the league, as do his 840 rushing yards. He’s also 12th in receiving yards at his position with 251. However, his efficiency has been shockingly poor, averaging under 4 yards per carry and just 4.2 yards per touch. This is behind one of the better run blocking units in the league. What’s slightly enigmatic about Bell is that he’s evading 7 tackles per game, indicating that he’s doing his job to eat up all the yards he can. Still, his YPC has dropped over a yard from 2016, and he’s struggled mightily to break off long gains. I attribute this to the downswing of Ben Roethlisberger, in what should be his final season. Teams are seeing the veteran QB’s deterioration and planning accordingly. Regardless, volume will always trump efficiency in fantasy football and no running back is touching Bell’s 91.6% opportunity share. Ideally, the Steelers’ superstar would be finding the end zone more often with such a massive workload, but a fantasy owner can hardly say he hasn’t been worth the top 3 pick.

Is Marcus Mariota good?

Via Chris Lardieri (vimeo)

Who else had the 3rd year QB out of Oregon pinned as a surefire breakout candidate? Between his offensive line, new weapons in the passing game (Eric Decker, Corey Davis), and a beastly thunder and thunder combination at running back, it seemed as though the table was set. And yet the Titans have struggled in what is likely the worst division in football. We could have predicted that Mariota wouldn’t see top 10 passing volume, perhaps even top 20. It was his legs and otherworldly efficiency that gave us hope. Unfortunately, volume is a much better predictor than efficiency, and one that many were all too happy to overlook. Overlook it we should not have. He’s completing 11% less of his passes in 2017 compared to 2016. He’s had more games that he’s thrown for 0 TDs than he’s thrown for multiple. He’s topped 30 rushing yards in only 2 contests. Throwing just 7 touchdowns to 6 interceptions is the opposite of efficient play. Unless you’re in a 20 man league, Mariota had not been startable, scoring less fantasy points than Blake Bortles and Eli Manning. So no, to answer my question, he’s not good and should be considered no more than a weekly streaming option for owners barren at the QB position.

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