What happens next? How much cap room have they got? What is the strength of the draft? And why is perspective needed on the Dallas loss?

Time to get into it. Here are some of the key points going into the off-season…

1. They have limited cap room

The Seahawks are currently projected to have $60m in cap space in 2019. That’s seventh most in the NFL. And it’s a red herring.

Seattle has only 34 contracted players for 2019, the lowest number in the league. The Colts, with a league-high $122m to spend, have 41 contracted players. It means that while the Seahawks have some money to spend, a fair portion of it will need to be spent filling out the roster.

They can create cap space by parting with Kam Chancellor. There was no financial gain to be had here in 2018. It would’ve actually cost them an extra $5m. In 2019 the situation is different. They’ll save $2.8m ($13m cap hit and $10.2m in dead money).

They’ll also save $2.75m if they cut Jaron Brown. Barkevious Mingo would save $3.3m (they might prefer to spend that on K.J. Wright and/or Mychal Kendricks).

The $60m quickly shrinks when you consider they’ll pay to keep Frank Clark. The franchise tag cost $17.143m for a defensive end in 2018. They may decide to use the transition tag ($14.2m cost in 2018) which would give the Seahawks an opportunity to match any offer made to Clark.

The Seahawks don’t have a good history with transition tags, however.

Such a move would allow Clark to set his own market though. It’d be a calculated gamble. The Chicago Bears used the transition tag on Kyle Fuller this year. It paid off as a tactic — he agreed a four-year, $56m extension two months later. He was able to set his market and then come to an agreement with the Bears.

For the purpose of this piece, let’s use the most expensive scenario — an $18m franchise tag. So wipe away $18m from the $60m projected cap space for 2019. You always need to save about $7-10m for the draft and injured reserve.

This leaves approximately $30-35m for any further moves.

I asked Pete Carroll in London whether he intends to keep J.R. Sweezy and D.J. Fluker. His answer was a resounding ‘yes’. They also have big calls to make on K.J. Wright, Mychal Kendricks and Justin Coleman.

Jordan Simmons, David Moore and Austin Calitro are ERFA’s and will likely be kept. They’ll have a decision to make on Malik Turner and Akeem King (also both ERFA’s).

George Fant is a restricted free agent and seems almost certain to be retained. Joey Hunt, Quinton Jefferson, J.D McKissic, Branden Jackson and Tyler Ott are also RFA’s. Do the Seahawks tag them or try to negotiate separate, cheaper deals?

Shamar Stephen, Dion Jordan, Mike Davis and Brett Hundley are free agents you’ll either need to retain or replace.

Take all this into account and it won’t leave much money to spend.

A realistic expectation is a repeat of a year ago. Calculated moves in the second and third wave of free agency. A big splurge, however, does not seem likely.

2. They only have four draft picks

The Duane Brown trade (second rounder), Brett Hundley trade (sixth rounder) and Shalom Luani trade (7th rounder) has left the Seahawks with a league-low four draft picks. They are not expected to gain any further comp picks either.

What does this likely mean? Trading down again.

The Seahawks will own either the 21st or 22nd overall pick depending on the result of the Eagles vs Bears game. A year ago they traded down from #18 to #27, collecting a third and sixth round pick in the process. It’s fair to imagine they’ll work on trying to find a similar deal this year.

3. What are the strengths of the draft?

It’s an incredible year for defensive linemen. One of Bob McGinn’s scouting sources is quoted as saying, “I’ve never seen anything like it.”

Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clelin Ferrell, Rashan Gary, Dexter Lawrence, Ed Oliver and Christian Wilkins will likely go early. It’s possible Derrick Brown, Jachai Polite, Raekwon Davis, Josh Allen, Zach Allen and Jaylon Ferguson go early too. That’s how good this class is for defensive linemen.

The list doesn’t stop there.

Jeffery Simmons has top-15 talent but could last due to an off-field incident dating back to High School. Brian Burns and Montez Sweat are long and quick but there are concerns about their ability to play early downs vs the run. D’Andre Walker is underrated while Dre’Mont Jones, Jabari Zuniga and Jerry Tillery are names to monitor.

The depth will easily stretch into the late first or early second round.

4. Could this impact free agency?

Possibly. With the price of defensive linemen growing year after year, we could see a regression in 2019. Teams might be prepared to play the draft class against the veteran free agents. The top players (Lawrence, Clowney, Clark) will still get paid. The next tier of players might be left frustrated.

The Seahawks need a player or two to buy into the Michael Bennett/Cliff Avril approach from 2013. Short term prove-it deals. Seattle has an advantage here. Although they’ll have to pay Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner top money, Seattle’s only other pending 2020 free agents are players like Nick Vannett and Barkevious Mingo (assuming they extend Frank Clark and Jarran Reed).

If a player like Anthony Barr, for example, ends up with a cold market — he might opt for a prove-it deal. And the Seahawks can say to any player in that situation — we’ll have the 2020 money to pay and keep you if you perform. They kept both Bennett and Avril in a similar situation.

Another option for the Seahawks could be to try and sign an ageing veteran. Cameron Wake, Brandon Graham, Clay Matthews and Terrell Suggs are all free agents in the off-season. All could be available at a reasonable price on a short-term basis.

5. Is it a good draft class for defensive backs?

It’s an uninspiring cornerback class and the safety group is even worse. Bob McGinn’s sources note: “This class of safeties lacks quality and quantity.”

Johnathan Abram — a hard hitting former Georgia DB who transferred to Mississippi State — is considered the best safety prospect and only a second round prospect. Alabama’s Deionte Thompson gets a lot of hype but he has limitations. One of McGinn’s sources says: “I’ve watched all the Alabama tapes and I can’t grade him… I don’t see the guy doing things.”

A high pick at safety seems highly unlikely given the class. Tony Pauline has reported strong interest from the Seahawks in tall, physical cornerback Jamal Peters of Mississippi State. He looks like a prototype for Pete Carroll’s defense and could be a target in rounds 3-4.

6. What are the keys to the off-season?

Here are five potential priorities:

1. More pass rush

2. More speed

3. Keep building the culture

4. Improve the depth

5. Build on the experience of 2018

In terms of improving the roster, the main priority could be finding more playmakers on defense.

Here’s why:

Used @CowboysStats to check out the Seahawks defenders EPA for this season as a total. Over the dashed line is good, under the dashed line is not as good. This stat obviously only credits players who make a direct play, such as a tackle or forced fumble, not someone who prevents pic.twitter.com/pUs3mOf6vn — Magnus Bendixen (@BendixenNFL) January 2, 2019

Seattle’s defense is a well organised, properly coached unit with togetherness and spirit. They will need more than just Frank Clark, Jarran Reed, Bobby Wagner and Bradley McDougald to become a top-tier unit.

The encouraging thing is how well Jacob Martin played in his handful of snaps. It hints towards a bright future. It also might be that he works best in a limited role. We’ll find out over the next year or two.

The graph also highlights how well Quinton Jefferson contributed and it’s a shame Dion Jordan couldn’t have a greater impact.

They still need more. Whether it’s on the D-line or among the defensive backs, they need 3-4 more names to get among the group of four in the top right corner of the graph.

7. Please, let’s not do this for eight months

A lot of Seahawks fans have decided the loss yesterday was down to an unwillingness to adjust. The Cowboys did an excellent job shutting down the run, so why didn’t the Seahawks just cut Russell Wilson loose? Perhaps, as some believe, like they did in Carolina against the Panthers?

A few quick points here…

The Seahawks struggled to run the ball in Carolina and trailed by three points at half time. The deficit was four points against the Cowboys. To start the second half against the Panthers, Seattle ran the ball three straight times. Then they hit a 54-yard deep pass on 3rd and 12. They followed up with two more runs before scoring on a red zone throw to Tyler Lockett.

On the following drive, they started by running the ball three out of five times.

They only really turned to Wilson when they trailed by seven points with less than seven minutes left in the game.

It’s not true that a major adjustment occurred early in the second half against Carolina. They continued to run and play for manageable third downs.

They turned to the pass right at the end of the game when they needed to press. They still required a low percentage deep-shot on fourth down to result in a touchdown, a missed field goal by Graham Gano and some Wilson-to-Lockett magic to win the game.

The approach in Carolina was actually very similar to the approach in Dallas. Keep it tight, try and take it down to the final possession. The Seahawks would’ve been in the same position had they managed to stop Dallas on their final scoring drive to give Wilson the ball back. Instead, they had back-breaking pass interference penalties on third down and gave up a 3rd and 14 run by Dak Prescott.

Pete Carroll’s approach — and it is his approach despite all the grief directed at his offensive coordinator — helped get this team to the playoffs against the odds. It helped regain a productive running game and helped Russell Wilson put up career-best numbers. It helped win in Carolina and at home against the Packers, Chiefs and Vikings. It helped this team compete against the Rams — twice.

Here’s the perspective for Carroll’s philosophy. There’s a reason very few people predicted the Seahawks would go to the playoffs. The roster, really, isn’t as good as some have maybe started to believe. Not yet, anyway. It’s young and growing.

The Seahawks spent a season playing a style that would help them be competitive. It enabled them to stick in games where, arguably, they otherwise would’ve struggled. And with a quarterback very capable of finding a way to win at the end — taking it down to a final possession worked on multiple occasions in the regular season.

If Wilson had the football in the fourth quarter with two minutes on the clock and a six-point deficit, there’s a decent chance they would’ve beaten the Cowboys.

Seattle’s defense is 3-4 quality players short and was exposed in some games. The protection was extremely suspect when they focused on the pass in weeks one and two.

The style, the approach — it’s probably designed on purpose to suit the players on the roster and cover up weaknesses.

In Dallas, they played their way. Just as they have all season.

They came up short. That’s football.

8. No, they don’t need to fire anybody

Sports fans always need someone to be accountable when things don’t work out. The strange thing is, things did work out for the Seahawks this year.

They got to the playoffs in a year with modest external expectations. That’s a success. They were energised, entertaining and had some good wins mixed in with some frustrating losses.

In a reset year, this was a strong showing.

The key now is to add more talent, add more depth and get better. Not start overhauling the staff and roster again.

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