With the first pick in the NFL draft next week, the Houston Texans will have to decide if Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel is the best option. Credit: Associated Press

By of the

Green Bay — Say you're Rick Smith, the general manager of the Houston Texans.

As Smith does now, Dan Reeves controlled the first selection in the 2001 draft for the Atlanta Falcons. After trading up for the pick one day before the draft, Reeves' choice was Michael Vick.

Before long, Smith and the Texans must make their tortured call on quarterback Johnny Manziel. If they knew Manziel's career would approximate Vick's, should they do it?

"Was Michael Vick's career a hit or miss?" an AFC personnel director said last week. "He's won playoff games, made a lot of money, been a starter, excited a lot of people. At the same time, did he really live up to it?"

Now a 33-year-old insurance policy for the New York Jets, Vick owns a 58-48-1 record in the regular season as a starter for the Falcons and Eagles. His passer rating of 80.9 doesn't factor in his 5,857 rushing yards, most ever by a quarterback.

One of his greatest victories came against the Green Bay Packers in the 2002 wild-card playoffs as snow fell at Lambeau Field. Returning from almost two years in prison for funding a dog-fighting ring, Vick appeared almost unstoppable at times down the stretch in 2010.

"I think he'll have an up and down career like Michael Vick's," an NFC executive said. "Some good. Some bad."

That's a little how Manziel's two-year career went at Texas A&M.

"He typifies the SportsCenter generation," said Thomas Dimitroff, currently the Falcons' general manager. "As far as being reminiscent of anyone in the past, to me he's of a different generation of quarterback. It will be interesting to see how his career plays out."

Last month, the Journal Sentinel asked 20 executives in personnel if, when the book was closed on Manziel's pro career, it would be considered a hit or a miss.

Underscoring the Texans' dilemma, eight scouts guessed hit and 12 guessed miss.

"Do you want somebody that's not even 50-50 on that poll to be your franchise quarterback?" said an NFL personnel man. "He's a damn good athlete and great competitor, but he's a party animal and he ain't the smartest."

The personnel people also were asked to choose one word to describe Manziel, who became the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy, in 2012.

Those that forecast Manziel's career to be a hit chose brazen, electric (twice), entertaining, exciting, swagger, Tarkenton and unpredictable.

Those that expect Manziel to miss selected competitive (twice), dangerous, different, difference-maker, electric, energetic, gamer, magical, playmaker, spontaneous and winner.

"I really like Johnny Manziel," said Rick Reiprish, the New Orleans Saints' director of college scouting who has been beating college campuses for players since 1979. "He's very worthy of being a high first-round pick.

"Some of the throws the kid has made...Fran Tarkenton, he didn't have the arm strength this kid has. He'll drive you crazy if you let him, but he's going to do a lot of good things for you, too."

Measured at 5 feet 11 3/4 inches, Manziel will become just the eighth quarterback shorter than 6-0 to be drafted in the last 28 years.

In order, the list includes Kevin Sweeney (5-11 1/2), seventh round, 1987; Danny McManus (5-11 1/2), 11th round, '88; Jeff Blake (5-11 1/2), sixth round, '92; Ty Detmer (5-11 1/2), ninth round, '92; Joe Hamilton (5-10), seventh round, 2000; Seneca Wallace (5-11 1/2), fourth round, '03; and Russell Wilson (5-10 1/2), third round, '12.

The fact the Seattle Seahawks just won the Super Bowl with Wilson has put the question of Manziel's height on the back burner. Be that as it may, there's plenty good reason for the age-old stigma against short quarterbacks.

"The only thing that's going to hurt him is him being 5-11," said C.O. Brocato, a consultant for the Tennessee Titans and the grand old man of NFL scouts. "Only thing that worries me, if he can't get away from those big guys up here, it's going to be tough for him.

"He's such a damn good athlete with such quickness, he can be in one spot and roll out the other way and be on his way down the field. But you don't do that too many times up here. You can stand on the sideline, and hitting is so much different than what you hear in college."

Former NFL personnel director Phil Savage, the analyst for the Alabama radio network, has researched defenses coached by Nick Saban at Michigan State, Louisiana State and the Crimson Tide.

"Not since 1998-'99 has a Nick Saban-coached defense been taken apart in back-to-back years like Drew Brees did for Purdue against Michigan State," said Savage. "Manziel is the only quarterback that actually exceeded his performance the second time around. He threw for 464 (yards) and five TDs (and rushed for 98) the second time.

"I watched eight or 10 games last summer getting ready for the (Texas A&M) game. After the little missteps last spring, I thought this guy was a college legend folklore player that probably won't have much of an NFL career.

"Alabama had nine months basically to get ready for the game (Sept. 14). For him to march down the field the first two times as if they were going against air...this is a great football player."

Still, Manziel barely won a Journal Sentinel poll of 17 personnel people with national orientation asking each to name the five best players. A first-place vote was worth five points, a second was worth four and so on.

Here were the first-place votes: Manziel, eight; Blake Bortles, four; Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr, two; and Zach Mettenberger, one.

Here were the point totals: Manziel, 68; Bortles, 61; Carr, 49; Bridgewater, 41; Jimmy Garappolo, 16; Mettenberger, six; A.J. McCarron and Aaron Murray, five; Tom Savage, three; and Logan Thomas, one.

"People think these guys are going to be saviors," one scout said. "The Manziels, the Bortles, the Bridgewaters, the Carrs, they're not franchise quarterbacks. They're just starters, at best.

"The Andrew Lucks don't come along but once every 10 years."

***

UNSUNG HERO

David Fales, San Jose State: Redshirted behind Colin Kaepernick in 2009 at Nevada, played two seasons in junior college and then went 17-8 with a passer rating of 109.8 at San Jose State. Small (6-1½, 211) and slow (5.00). However, he might be the most accurate passer in the draft.

SCOUTS' NIGHTMARE

Brendon Kay, Cincinnati: Started only as a senior after enduring all kinds of back and shoulder injuries. Good athlete with a good arm. Should be drafted late if the medical doesn't kill his chances.

PACKERS' PICK TO REMEMBER

Rod Hermes, QB, Beloit: Drafted in the 30th and last round in 1956. Stood 6-2, weighed 202. He was the last Buccaneer to be drafted. One reason he didn't make it was the 17th-round selection that year of another quarterback, Bart Starr, from Alabama.

QUOTE TO NOTE

NFL personnel man: "They say wait and get a quarterback later. Yeah, you'll set that team up with all those good players for the next guy if you don't have a quarterback. You can do all that if you're on TV or in fantasyland. The way owners pull the trigger now, you better get good pretty quick."

Bob McGinn