NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- The primary question about the Tennessee Titans right now doesn’t come with an easy answer.

The fact that the path to a playoff berth is so complicated is part of what makes the NFL so intriguing.

At 6-6, the Titans are very much alive in the AFC South race, where the Texans are 6-5 and the Colts are 5-6.

The Titans' struggles in the AFC South give them little margin if they want to make the playoffs.. AP Photo/Darron Cummings

Tennessee's season finale at home against the Texans on Jan. 1 can amount to a play-in game if things break right for them.

But the Titans have created a real issue for themselves with their AFC South play. Odds are they must finish with a better record than the Texans to win the AFC South. They definitely have to finish with a better record than the Colts to win the division.

The Titans are 1-3 in the AFC South and the Texans are 3-0. To have a chance in a tiebreaker against Houston, the Titans need to beat the Jaguars and Texans and have the Jaguars and Colts beat Houston.

(That would throw the tiebreaker to record against common opponents. Currently the Texans have the edge there, 5-4 to 4-5.) UPDATE: A few smart readers point out that the Titans actually can't pass the Texans in this category either. To win the division, the Titans have to finish with a better record.

If it doesn’t play out like that in division games, however, and the Texans win one more AFC South game, Houston would win a tiebreaker with a better division record.

The Titans lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Colts, because they lost twice to Indianapolis.

You can easily spend hours playing with two playoff simulators. Here’s ESPN’s Playoff Machine, where you can pick remaining results and see the playoff field that would result from there.

This NFL playoff simulator from The New York Times adds percentages.

Right now the simulator gives the Titans a 21 percent chance of making the playoffs.

I think the most realistic positive scenario is that the Titans win three out of their final four, with the loss on Dec. 18 at Kansas City. That means pulling an upset of Denver at Nissan Stadium on Dec. 11.

In that instance, the Titans have a 63 percent chance of making the postseason.