Conservative leadership candidate Kevin O’Leary may have been late to the gate, but he’s already leading the race to succeed Stephen Harper, edging out Maxime Bernier and opening a significant lead over Kellie Leitch, according to a new poll conducted by Mainstreet Research.

The first poll from the iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet Research, was conducted between January 5 and February 3, sampling 5,487 Conservative members. It suggests O’Leary is the membership’s first choice, followed by Bernier and Leitch.

Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, said that Bernier’s support is spread out across Canada but is heavily concentrated in Quebec, while O’Leary’s support is also very broad but shallow in Quebec — so the two are quite close in terms of overall support. While O’Leary is still ahead overall, said Maggi, he’s not quite on the map in Quebec.

“He basically has to double his support in Quebec to really start running away with this,” said Maggi.

The leadership will be decided in Toronto on May 27 according to a complicated system, with members marking a preferential ballot in each of Canada’s 338 ridings. Votes from different ridings will have different weight, because some ridings have thousands of members and some have a handful. That means that there are significant differences between levels of support measured by percentage of vote and percentage of points.

The party’s membership list is secret, and the party only has 91,000 members, so it’s not easy to find the people who are going to select the next leader and ask them how they will vote. Mainstreet has found thousands of party members to poll by using Elections Canada donation records.

Almost a third of respondents — the largest percentage of those polled — indicated that they believe O’Leary is the best candidate to take on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2019. Maggi said this is likely due to O’Leary’s celebrity status and high name recognition.

Maggi said the numbers are still very fluid at this point and there’s still time for members to change their minds and for candidates to convince members who are “undecided.”

But the numbers right now show that Conservatives themselves believe O’Leary has the best chance of beating Trudeau, said Maggi.

The poll’s margin of error is 1.3 per cent.

Candidates will test their ideas, and their French, at a debate Monday night on the West Island of Montreal. O’Leary, who earlier said that he didn’t need to speak French to win the leadership, has been working with a tutor, and is expected to show off his French.

The iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet, will be tracking the Conservative leadership race until members pick the next leader on May 27. For information on subscribing to in-depth updates, click here.