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“It’s not a big surprise that sales were down, when the rumours were there,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC. “Basically, you’ve got people doing nothing on rumours and then acting after the fact.”

Looking back to the week from April 7 to 13, there were 3,303 sales (2,242 freehold and 1061 condominiums) — essentially meaning the market pulled back sharply. But given such a short-period, which could be heavily influenced by even a change in weather — the preliminary statistics have to be viewed with skepticism.

Speculation of changes to regulate the market had been brewing ahead of a meeting between the federal finance minister, his Ontario counterpart and city of Toronto mayor John Tory on April 18. Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa indicated after that meeting that his government would be acting but didn’t say how at the time.

The urgency came after March data indicated resale prices had climbed 33 per cent on a year over year basis. In the new-home market, average detached home prices have climbed about 70 per cent in the last year to $1.78 million.

“I believe if you look at the next six months, overall activity will be lower than they otherwise would have been,” said Tal. “The results will be lower than otherwise just because of the uncertainty, not the tax. That’s exactly what happened in Vancouver.”

British Columbia imposed a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers in August and sales started falling as much as 40 per cent on a year-over-year basis, although the market was seeing a decline in activity before the tax even came into existence.