Let me begin with the ratings; then we’ll get to the explanation.

Rk Team Off Rush Off Pass Off Avg Def Rush Def Pass Def Avg Team Avg 1 Arizona Cardinals 6.52 11.12 9.51 5.4 7.7 6.9 2.61 2 Carolina Panthers 6.94 9.92 8.88 5.48 6.75 6.31 2.57 3 Seattle Seahawks 7.08 10.31 9.18 5.22 7.63 6.79 2.39 4 Cincinnati Bengals 6.03 10.39 8.86 6.3 7.34 6.97 1.89 5 Kansas City Chiefs 7.55 8.78 8.35 5.98 7.22 6.79 1.56 6 New York Jets 6.3 8.93 8.01 4.83 7.65 6.66 1.35 7 New England Patriots 6.35 10.09 8.78 5.69 8.39 7.44 1.34 8 Pittsburgh Steelers 7.1 9.32 8.54 5.06 8.89 7.55 1 9 Denver Broncos 6.24 7.68 7.18 5.3 6.77 6.26 0.92 10 Buffalo Bills 7.18 9.05 8.39 6.8 8.52 7.92 0.47 11 Houston Texans 5.58 8.4 7.41 6.18 7.62 7.12 0.3 12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.71 9.3 8.39 5.54 9.62 8.19 0.2 13 Minnesota Vikings 6.98 8.12 7.72 6.35 8.51 7.75 -0.03 14 Green Bay Packers 6.29 8.13 7.49 6.51 8.06 7.52 -0.03 15 Oakland Raiders 5.76 8.4 7.48 6.57 8.3 7.7 -0.22 16 Atlanta Falcons 5.9 9.06 7.95 6.76 8.95 8.18 -0.23 17 Washington Redskins 5.13 9.97 8.28 6.68 9.57 8.56 -0.28 18 Chicago Bears 6.18 8.88 7.93 6.7 9.53 8.54 -0.61 19 St. Louis Rams 6.44 7.26 6.97 5.91 8.53 7.61 -0.64 20 Detroit Lions 5.53 8.98 7.77 6.6 9.45 8.45 -0.68 21 New York Giants 5.75 9.2 7.99 6.47 9.94 8.73 -0.73 22 Miami Dolphins 6.51 8.34 7.7 6.42 9.74 8.58 -0.88 23 San Diego Chargers 5.03 9.06 7.65 7.25 9.34 8.61 -0.96 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 5.55 8.54 7.49 6.14 9.72 8.47 -0.98 25 Philadelphia Eagles 6.19 7.98 7.35 6.79 9.17 8.34 -0.98 26 Baltimore Ravens 5.83 7.79 7.11 5.74 9.45 8.15 -1.04 27 New Orleans Saints 6.54 10.02 8.8 6.72 11.55 9.86 -1.06 28 Indianapolis Colts 5.49 7.45 6.77 6.1 8.96 7.96 -1.2 29 Dallas Cowboys 6.64 7.54 7.23 7.02 9.36 8.55 -1.32 30 Tennessee Titans 5.39 7.88 7.01 6.31 9.77 8.56 -1.55 31 Cleveland Browns 5.87 7.84 7.15 6.7 10.31 9.04 -1.9 32 San Francisco 49ers 5.75 7.49 6.88 6.94 10.05 8.96 -2.08

Let’s begin with a look at the rushing data. The Chiefs grade out as the number one offense in rushing efficiency in 2015. Kansas City rushed for 2,044 yards and 116 first downs; giving 9 yards for each first down gives the Chiefs 3,088 adjusted rushing yards. Kansas City also had 19 rushing touchdowns, and since a touchdown is always a first down, we add another 11 yards per rushing touchdown to bring the total to 3,297. The Chiefs also had 14 kneels that cost the team 14 rushing yards last year; add those back in, and Kansas City is now up to 3,311 yards. On rushing plays, Kansas City fumbled 5 times; subtract 25 yards for each fumble (these are fumbles, not fumbles lost), and the Chiefs finished with 3,186 yards.

Kansas City recorded 436 rushing attempts last year, but we need to discard those 14 kneels. Take 3,186, divide it by 422, and you get an average of 7.55 adjusted yards per play.

Rk Team Att Yds 1st TD Kn Knyd Fum Eff 1 Kansas City Chiefs 436 2044 116 19 14 -14 5 7.55 2 Buffalo Bills 509 2432 122 19 17 -20 9 7.18 3 Pittsburgh Steelers 388 1724 91 16 20 -20 5 7.1 4 Seattle Seahawks 500 2268 128 10 23 -24 7 7.08 5 Minnesota Vikings 474 2211 113 18 13 -18 9 6.98 6 Carolina Panthers 526 2282 136 19 17 -17 8 6.94 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 455 2162 99 12 11 -18 9 6.71 8 Dallas Cowboys 408 1890 94 8 8 -8 7 6.64 9 New Orleans Saints 397 1491 98 16 16 -16 3 6.54 10 Arizona Cardinals 452 1917 92 16 30 -29 8 6.52 11 Miami Dolphins 344 1496 72 11 10 -10 4 6.51 12 St. Louis Rams 429 1956 92 16 14 -14 12 6.44 13 New England Patriots 383 1404 87 14 19 -21 2 6.35 14 New York Jets 448 1868 99 11 13 -11 6 6.3 15 Green Bay Packers 436 1850 100 8 14 -15 8 6.29 16 Denver Broncos 411 1718 85 13 9 -9 5 6.24 17 Philadelphia Eagles 442 1743 110 15 12 -12 10 6.19 18 Chicago Bears 468 1854 108 13 7 -6 5 6.18 19 Cincinnati Bengals 467 1805 99 18 17 -18 8 6.03 20 Atlanta Falcons 420 1606 95 13 14 -15 9 5.9 21 Cleveland Browns 380 1529 81 5 6 -6 5 5.87 22 Baltimore Ravens 383 1478 89 8 2 -3 6 5.83 23 Oakland Raiders 370 1457 74 7 12 -12 6 5.76 24 New York Giants 403 1609 77 5 9 -9 4 5.75 25 San Francisco 49ers 390 1544 83 7 11 -10 8 5.75 26 Houston Texans 472 1731 90 7 21 -24 5 5.58 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 354 1473 69 5 6 -6 9 5.55 28 Detroit Lions 354 1335 71 7 12 -16 7 5.53 29 Indianapolis Colts 396 1438 77 6 19 -21 6 5.49 30 Tennessee Titans 371 1485 66 10 5 -7 9 5.39 31 Washington Redskins 429 1566 81 9 14 -12 11 5.13 32 San Diego Chargers 393 1358 79 4 6 -9 7 5.03

Now, let’s do the same with passing. We will be essentially using ANY/A, but with a 9-yard bonus for first downs as well. To no surprise, the Cardinals take the top spot by a decent margin, while the Rams bring up the rear. Note that sack yards are already “included” in this table, as the passing yards displayed shows team passing yards, or net passing yards.

Rk Team Att Yds TD Int 1st Sck Eff 1 Arizona Cardinals 562 4616 35 13 237 27 11.12 2 Cincinnati Bengals 505 3923 31 9 191 32 10.39 3 Seattle Seahawks 489 3790 34 8 190 46 10.31 4 New England Patriots 629 4587 36 7 229 38 10.09 5 New Orleans Saints 667 4970 32 12 247 32 10.02 6 Washington Redskins 555 4095 30 11 208 27 9.97 7 Carolina Panthers 501 3589 35 10 197 33 9.92 8 Pittsburgh Steelers 590 4603 26 21 207 33 9.32 9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 535 3852 22 15 201 27 9.30 10 New York Giants 623 4343 36 14 208 27 9.20 11 San Diego Chargers 667 4591 30 13 230 40 9.06 12 Atlanta Falcons 621 4379 21 17 230 32 9.06 13 Buffalo Bills 465 3343 23 9 155 42 9.05 14 Detroit Lions 632 4212 33 14 236 44 8.98 15 New York Jets 604 4057 33 16 210 22 8.93 16 Chicago Bears 523 3660 21 12 177 34 8.88 17 Kansas City Chiefs 473 3255 20 7 155 46 8.78 18 Jacksonville Jaguars 607 4108 35 18 215 51 8.54 19 Oakland Raiders 605 3879 34 14 193 33 8.40 20 Houston Texans 619 3833 29 12 210 36 8.40 21 Miami Dolphins 588 3811 24 12 194 45 8.34 22 Green Bay Packers 573 3503 31 8 173 47 8.13 23 Minnesota Vikings 454 2928 14 9 153 45 8.12 24 Philadelphia Eagles 623 4087 23 18 193 37 7.98 25 Tennessee Titans 551 3503 25 17 195 54 7.88 26 Cleveland Browns 609 3782 20 12 192 53 7.84 27 Baltimore Ravens 676 4271 21 21 211 24 7.79 28 Denver Broncos 606 3970 19 23 201 39 7.68 29 Dallas Cowboys 528 3471 16 22 175 33 7.54 30 San Francisco 49ers 526 3316 16 12 154 53 7.49 31 Indianapolis Colts 619 3704 26 19 195 37 7.45 32 St. Louis Rams 473 2805 11 11 126 18 7.26

Next up, rush defense. The Jets allowed 1,335 rushing yards, 62 first downs (bringing the total to 1,893 yards), 4 touchdowns (1,937). The Jets also faced 11 kneels for -12 yards (1,949) and caused 8 fumbles (1,749). The Jets faced 373 carries, or 362 net carries, for an average of 4.83 adjusted yards allowed per run. That was the best in the NFL in 2015.

Rk Team Att Yds 1st TD FUM Kn Knyd Eff 1 New York Jets 373 1335 62 4 8 11 -12 4.83 2 Pittsburgh Steelers 382 1459 71 6 12 11 -12 5.06 3 Seattle Seahawks 362 1304 71 10 9 10 -10 5.22 4 Denver Broncos 408 1337 81 10 4 14 -14 5.30 5 Arizona Cardinals 373 1460 79 9 12 7 -7 5.40 6 Carolina Panthers 364 1415 74 11 9 3 -3 5.48 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 466 1606 104 12 9 20 -22 5.54 8 New England Patriots 397 1580 77 8 6 7 -7 5.69 9 Baltimore Ravens 418 1661 80 10 7 12 -13 5.74 10 St. Louis Rams 453 1820 98 7 9 18 -17 5.91 11 Kansas City Chiefs 383 1571 86 7 7 6 -9 5.98 12 Indianapolis Colts 452 1952 89 14 10 14 -16 6.10 13 Jacksonville Jaguars 464 1709 102 15 4 22 -24 6.14 14 Houston Texans 388 1597 79 10 5 15 -14 6.18 15 Cincinnati Bengals 344 1477 74 8 4 5 -4 6.30 16 Tennessee Titans 462 1797 101 11 3 22 -24 6.31 17 Minnesota Vikings 411 1748 94 7 6 12 -12 6.35 18 Miami Dolphins 502 2019 112 13 3 17 -19 6.42 19 New York Giants 444 1942 104 15 11 14 -15 6.47 20 Green Bay Packers 420 1905 96 13 8 3 -3 6.51 21 Oakland Raiders 406 1678 94 12 2 8 -8 6.57 22 Detroit Lions 428 1808 96 18 7 17 -19 6.60 23 Washington Redskins 406 1962 103 10 13 5 -5 6.68 24 Cleveland Browns 458 2055 104 11 6 14 -14 6.70 25 Chicago Bears 433 1934 103 9 6 12 -12 6.70 26 New Orleans Saints 421 2071 103 12 15 9 -12 6.72 27 Atlanta Falcons 416 1680 107 20 7 15 -24 6.76 28 Philadelphia Eagles 478 2153 100 10 3 20 -20 6.79 29 Buffalo Bills 394 1730 87 10 4 20 -21 6.80 30 San Francisco 49ers 504 2020 128 20 4 26 -26 6.94 31 Dallas Cowboys 461 1934 113 16 2 20 -21 7.02 32 San Diego Chargers 417 2005 101 17 7 12 -11 7.25

Of note: the San Francisco 49ers ranked 12th in yards per carry allowed, which might make you think the rush defense was pretty good. But that is really misleading. San Francisco allowed a first down on 27% of rushing attempts faced, the worst rate in the NFL. And the team allowed touchdowns on over 4% of all carries, the 4th worst rate. And the defense only forced a fumble on 0.8% of rushing attempts, the 27th-best rate. Add it all up, and the 49ers actually had one of the worst run defenses in the league, that got a huge boost in raw numbers because San Francisco faced a league-high 26 kneels.

Finally, let’s look at pass defense. Again, these mirror ANY/A, with a first down bonus. And, as you would expect, Carolina and Denver top the ratings, with the Saints at the very bottom.

Rk Team Att Yds TD Int 1st Sck Eff 1 Carolina Panthers 650 3752 21 24 198 44 6.75 2 Denver Broncos 573 3193 19 14 162 52 6.77 3 Kansas City Chiefs 607 3698 25 22 193 47 7.22 4 Cincinnati Bengals 646 3976 18 21 202 42 7.34 5 Houston Texans 553 3366 24 14 173 45 7.62 6 Seattle Seahawks 548 3364 14 14 175 37 7.63 7 New York Jets 601 3763 25 18 185 39 7.65 8 Arizona Cardinals 573 3687 24 19 177 36 7.70 9 Green Bay Packers 551 3642 20 16 183 43 8.06 10 Oakland Raiders 641 4140 25 14 206 38 8.30 11 New England Patriots 596 3851 24 12 204 49 8.39 12 Minnesota Vikings 561 3759 24 13 189 43 8.51 13 Buffalo Bills 602 3972 30 17 197 21 8.52 14 St. Louis Rams 597 4065 21 13 192 41 8.53 15 Pittsburgh Steelers 625 4350 29 17 231 48 8.89 16 Atlanta Falcons 561 3882 19 15 197 19 8.95 17 Indianapolis Colts 585 4114 29 17 210 35 8.96 18 Philadelphia Eagles 633 4273 36 15 239 37 9.17 19 San Diego Chargers 510 3786 22 11 170 32 9.34 20 Dallas Cowboys 506 3632 19 8 172 31 9.36 21 Baltimore Ravens 545 3737 30 6 189 37 9.45 22 Detroit Lions 528 3786 27 9 191 43 9.45 23 Chicago Bears 512 3593 31 8 182 35 9.53 24 Washington Redskins 566 4128 30 11 202 38 9.57 25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 540 3840 31 11 208 38 9.62 26 Jacksonville Jaguars 602 4291 29 9 222 36 9.72 27 Miami Dolphins 542 4000 31 13 203 31 9.74 28 Tennessee Titans 502 3678 34 11 192 39 9.77 29 New York Giants 638 4783 31 15 236 23 9.94 30 San Francisco 49ers 549 4179 21 9 199 28 10.05 31 Cleveland Browns 511 4012 34 11 186 29 10.31 32 New Orleans Saints 544 4544 45 9 223 31 11.55

One of the problems with yards per play is that it is subject to Simpson’s paradox: teams that pass often (or face teams that pass often) will generally allow more yards per play just because passing gains more yards per play than rushing. So when I came up with my offensive and defensive ratings, I took 65 parts of the team’s passing rating and 35 parts of the team’s rushing rating, which eliminates the problem entirely. You may disagree with those weights — I spent about 10 seconds deciding on them, but they felt right to me — and you have all the information you need to re-run the numbers with your own weights.

Anyway, as always, please leave your thoughts in the comments. What do you think of this method of rating teams?