COVID-19 Research Resources



The most-current resources related to the COVID-19 pandemic from the economists and staff of the Research Division: preliminary and published analyses, daily data updates and projections, data tools, and a timeline of related events and policy responses. For more related analysis and resources from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, see the Bank's official COVID-19 page.

Data Updates

Recent Research by Date

Data and Additional Research Resources

Recent Research by Topic





UPDATED: Data on COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Categorized by Financial Distress by Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez

last updated September 21, 2020

first posted online March 27, 2020

related publication: On the Economy blog, April 2, 2020



UPDATED: Daily Data and Projections on COVID-19 Death Rates by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

last updated June 29, 2020

first posted online March 30, 2020

related publication: On the Economy blog, April 13, 2020



UPDATED: Weekly Data on Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski

last updated July 20, 2020

first posted online April 13, 2020

related publications: On the Economy blog, Part 1, April 9, 2020, Part 2, April 14, 2020, Part 3, May 11, 2020



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The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Deficit During COVID-19: The Role of Essential Medical Goods by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu

Economic Synopses, September 16, 2020



The Decline of Employment During COVID-19: The Role of Contact-Intensive Industries by Matthew Famiglietti, Fernando Leibovici, and Ana Maria Santacreu

Economic Synopses, September 9, 2020



How Should the Government Spend the Fiscal Budget during the COVID-19 Pandemic? by Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, and Kurt See

On the Economy blog, August 20, 2020



The Effects of Extra Unemployment Benefits on Household Delinquencies by Asha Bharadwaj and Miguel Faria-e-Castro

On the Economy blog, August 18, 2020

first posted online August 13, 2020



Comparing the COVID-19 Recession with the Great Depression by David C. Wheelock

Economic Synopses, August 12, 2020

Home Production and Leisure During the COVID-19 Recession by Oksana Leukhina and Zhixiu Yu

Working paper 2020-25, August 10, 2020

COVID-19's Effects on the Economy and the Fed's Response by Jane Ihrig, Gretchen C. Weinbach, and Scott A. Wolla

Page One Economics, August 10, 2020



The Recent COVID-19 Spike and the U.S. Employment Slowdown by Asha Bharadwaj and Maximiliano Dvorkin

On the Economy blog, August 18, 2020



Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic by Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, and Kurt See

Working paper 2020-24, August 2020

Seigniorage and Sovereign Default: The Response of Emerging Markets to COVID-19 by Emilio Espino, Julian Kozlowski, Fernando M. Martin, and Juan M. Sánchez

Working paper 2020-24, August 2020

Which Earnings Groups Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Crisis? by Aaron Amburgey and Serdar Birinci

Economic Synopses, July 14, 2020



COVID-19 and the Great Recession: Market Hours and Home Production across American Households by Oksana Leukhina, Devin Werner, and Zhixiu Yu

On the Economy blog, July 14, 2020



Financial Distress and the Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections by Kartik Athreya, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez

On the Economy blog, July 6, 2020

first posted online July 2, 2020



The Impact of the Fed's Response So Far by Fernando M. Martin

On the Economy blog, June 16, 2020

first posted online May 1, 2020



SPECIAL SURVEYS: The Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses in the Eighth Federal Reserve District by ;Kathryn Bokun and Charles Gascon

last updated June 15, 2020

first posted online May 1, 2020

International Trade Policy During COVID-19 by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu

Economic Synopses, June 12, 2020



Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic IV: Liquidity Buffers by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski

On the Economy blog, June 12, 2020

first posted online June 5, 2020



Checking the Temperature of the Labor Market in Real Time by Maximiliano Dvorkin and Asha Bharadwaj

On the Economy blog, June 9, 2020

first posted online June 8, 2020

Endogenous Social Distancing in an Epidemic by Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Working paper 2020-013A, June 2020



Updated May 1-May 31

Unemployment Insurance and Vulnerable Households During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Serdar Birinci

Economic Synopses, May 27, 2020



Bad Medicine? Federal Debt and Deficits after COVID-19 by Kevin L. Kliesen

Economic Synopses, May 26, 2020

PRELIMINARY: Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a Supply or a Demand Shock? by Pedro Brinca, Joao B. Duarte, and Miguel Faria-e-Castro

posted online May 19, 2020



What Can We Learn from the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-19 for COVID-19? by David C. Wheelock

Economic Synopses, May 18, 2020



Measuring Sectoral Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19 by Pedro Brinca, Joao B. Duarte, and Miguel Faria e Castro

Working paper 2020-011, May 2020

Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

On the Economy blog, May 13, 2020

first posted online May 11, 2020



PRELIMINARY: The Social Value of a Vaccine for the COVID-19 Epidemic by Carlos Garriga, Rody Manuelli, and Sid Sanghi

posted online May 13, 2020



PRELIMINARY: Optimal Management of the COVID-19 Epidemic: When and How To Reopen the Economy? by Carlos Garriga, Rody Manuelli, and Sid Sanghi

posted online May 13, 2020



Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti

On the Economy blog, May 12, 2020

Federal Reserve System International Facilities by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

Economic Synopses, May 8, 2020

COVID-19 Cases and Deaths: Comparing the Eighth Federal Reserve District and the U.S. by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Economic Synopses, May 7, 2020

International Trade of Essential Goods During a Pandemic by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu

Working paper 2020-010B, May 2020

first posted online May 5, 2020



PRELIMINARY: The GDP Impact of Economic Shutdowns by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett

posted online May 5, 2020



How Will COVID-19 Affect Financial Assets, Delinquency and Bankruptcy? by Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez

On the Economy blog, May 4, 2020

first posted online April 17, 2020



Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic III: Variance Across Sectors and Firms by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski

On the Economy blog, May 11, 2020

first posted online May 4, 2020



Updated April 18-April 30

COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts by Charles Gascon and Aaron Amburgey

On the Economy blog, April 30, 2020

Reopening the U.S.: Gauging the Trend of COVID-19 Transmissions by B. Ravikumar, Guillaume Vandenbroucke, and Ryan Mather

On the Economy blog, April 28, 2020

The Value of $600 Across States Hit Hardest by COVID-19 by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett

Economic Synopses, April 28, 2020

first posted online April 24, 2020



How Will COVID-19 Affect the Spending of Financially Distressed Households? by Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez

On the Economy blog, April 23, 2020

first posted online April 10, 2020



The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part II by Makenzie Peake, B. Ravikumar, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Economic Synopses, April 23, 2020



The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part I by Makenzie Peake, B. Ravikumar, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Economic Synopses, April 22, 2020



Central Bank Responses to COVID-19 by Jacob Haas and Christopher J. Neely

Economic Synopses, April 21, 2020

first posted online April 20, 2020



Will Workers Want To Be Laid Off? by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett

Economic Synopses, April 18, 2020

first posted online April 15, 2020



Updated April 11-April 17

Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws by Aaron Amburgey and Serdar Birinci

Economic Synopses, April 17, 2020

first posted online April 15, 2020



Supporting Small Borrowers: ABS Markets and the TALF by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

Economic Synopses, April 16, 2020

first posted online April 13, 2020



Fed Intervention in the To-Be-Announced Market for Mortgage-Backed Securities by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

Economic Synopses, April 15, 2020

first posted online April 10, 2020

Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19 by Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp, and Venky Venkateswaran

Working paper 2020-009A, April 2020

first posted online April 15, 2020



Is the U.S. Looking Like Italy? Projections on COVID-19 Death Rates by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

On the Economy blog, April 14, 2020



Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic II: Heterogeneity across Sectors by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski

On the Economy blog, April 14, 2020

first posted online April 10, 2020



The Wage Bills of COVID-19 by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett

Economic Synopses, April 14, 2020

first posted online April 9, 2020



The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets across the U.S. by Maximiliano Dvorkin

On the Economy blog, April 13, 2020

first posted online April 3, 2020

The Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility Supports Main Street by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

Economic Synopses, April 13, 2020

first posted online April 8, 2020



How Bad Can It Be? The Relationship between GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate by YiLi Chien

Economic Synopses, April 11, 2020

first posted online April 1, 2020



Updated April 4-April 10

Protectionism and Import Dependence on Essential Medical Equipment by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Makenzie Peake

On the Economy blog, April 10, 2020

first posted online April 8, 2020



The Stock Market's Wild Ride by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

Economic Synopses, April 10, 2020

first posted online April 7, 2020

The Year of Living Dangerously: The COVID-19 Shock and the Probability of Deflation by Kevin Kliesen

Economic Synopses, April 9, 2020



Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski

On the Economy blog, April 9,2020

first posted online April 6, 2020

How Much Does the U.S. Rely on Other Countries for Essential Medical Equipment? by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Makenzie Peake

On the Economy blog, April 8, 2020

first posted online April 3, 2020

How the Impact of Social Distancing Ripples through the Economy by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti

On the Economy blog, April 7, 2020

first posted online April 2, 2020



How Long Will the Relief Check Last? by YiLi Chien

Economic Synopses, April 6, 2020

first posted online April 2, 2020

COVID-19's Economic Effects on Poor and Emerging Markets by Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

On the Economy blog, April 6, 2020

first posted online March 27, 2020

Updated March 28-April 3

COVID-19 and Unemployment Risk: State and MSA Differences by Charles Gascon and Devin Werner

On the Economy blog, April 3, 2020



U.S. States Hit the Hardest by COVID-19 Have Lower Unemployment Risks by Sungki Hong and Devin Werner

Economic Synopses, April 3, 2020

COVID-19: Forecasting with Slow and Fast Data by Michael McCracken

On the Economy blog, April 3, 2020

first posted online April 1, 2020

How Closing Restaurants and Hotels Spills Over to Total Employment by Carlos Garriga, Ryan Mather, and Juan M. Sánchez

On the Economy blog, April 2, 2020

first posted online March 27, 2020

COVID-19: Projected Deaths in the U.S. by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

On the Economy blog, April 1, 2020

first posted online March 27, 2020

House Hunting in a Period of Social Distancing by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

On the Economy blog, April 1, 2020

first posted online March 27, 2020



Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic Part I: Financial Markets and Monetary Policy by Fernando M. Martin

Economic Synopses, March 30, 2020



Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Part II: The Economy and Fiscal Policy by Fernando M. Martin

Economic Synopses, March 30, 2020



COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth? by Michael T. Owyang, Hannah G. Shell, and Julie K. Bennett

On the Economy blog, March 30, 2020



Updated March 21-March 27

COVID-19 and the Importance of Testing by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

On the Economy blog, March 27, 2020

first posted online March 27, 2020



How Fast Has COVID-19 Been Spreading? by Guillaume Vandenbroucke

On the Economy blog, March 27, 2020

first posted online as The Speed of COVID-19, March 27, 2020



The Effects of COVID-19 on Unemployment Insurance Claims by Serdar Birinci and Aaron Amburgey

Economic Synopses, March 27, 2020



Fiscal Policy and COVID-19: Insights from a Quantitative Model by Miguel Faria e Castro

Economic Synopses, March 27, 2020

COVID-19 and Financial Distress: Employment Vulnerability by Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez

On the Economy blog, March 26, 2020



The St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index, Version 2.0 by Kevin Kliesen and Michael McCracken

On the Economy blog, March 26, 2020



The Efficacy of Enhanced Unemployment Benefits during a Pandemic by Bill Dupor

Regional Economist, March 24, 2020



Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate by Miguel Faria e Castro

On the Economy blog, March 24, 2020



Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti

On the Economy blog, March 24, 2020



COVID-19: Which Workers Face the Highest Unemployment Risk? by Charles S. Gascon

On the Economy blog, March 24, 2020



Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period by James Bullard

On the Economy blog, March 23, 2020



Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic by Miguel Faria e Castro

Working Paper 2020-006, March 23, 2020



How Many Employees Are Prepared to Work from Home? by Charles S. Gascon and Mahdi Ebsim

On the Economy blog, March 23, 2020



Updated March 14-March 20

COVID-19’s Shock on Firms’ Liquidity and Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Great Recession by Matthew Famiglietti and Fernando Leibovici

Economic Synopses, March 20, 2020



How Quickly Does Fiscal Policy Get Implemented? by Bill Dupor

On the Economy blog, March 18, 2020



Possible Fiscal Policies for Rare, Unanticipated and Severe Viral Outbreaks by Bill Dupor

Economic Synopses, March 17, 2020

On the Economy blog, March 17, 2020





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Data and Additional Research Resources

COVID-19



COVID-19 Economic Data tracking dashboard on FRED

COVID-19 Financial Data tracking dashboard on FRED

Timeline of Events Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic on FRASER, the digital library of economic history

Tracking the U.S. economy and financial markets during the COVID-19 outbreak on FREDBlog

Social distancing and employment loss in leisure and hospitality on FREDBlog



Latest RePEc papers on COVID-19. RePEc IDEAS is a bibliographic database of economic research indexing more than one million academic articles and papers.

COVID-19 Information from across the Federal Reserve System

Other Research Division Resources on Pandemics, Recessions, and Crises

Epidemics, Pandemics and the Economy, a FRASER blog post on historical resources related to historical epidemics and the 1918 influenza outbreak

Timeline of events related to the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 on FRASER

RePEc Biblio topics and subtopics on the economics of pandemics

The 2008 U.S. Auto Market Collapse by Bill Dupor, Rong Li, M. Saif Mehkari, and Yi-Chan Tsai

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2020-004A

Auto Sales and the 2007-09 Recession by Bill Dupor

Economic Synopses, July 7, 2019

The Black Death in the Malthusian economy

FRED Blog, December 3, 2018

Bank Lending During Recessions by Maximiliano A. Dvorkin and Hannah G. Shell

Economic Synopses, February 5, 2016

The (Unintended?) Consequences of the Largest Liquidity Injection Ever by M Crosignani, Miguel Faria e Castro, and L Fonseca

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2017-039D

Universal Basic Income versus Unemployment Insurance by Alice Fabre, Stéphane Pallage, and Christian Zimmermann

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2014-047A

Translating Kurzarbeit by Silvio Contessi and Li Li

Economic Synopses, June 14, 2013

The Lender of Last Resort: Lessons from the Fed's First 100 Years by Mark A. Carlson and David C. Wheelock

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2012-056B

The Relationships Among Changes in GDP, Employment, and Unemployment: This Time, It’s Different by Juan M. Sánchez and Constanza S. Liborio

Economic Synopses, May 18, 2012

Pandemic Economics: The 1918 Influenza and Its Modern-Day Implications by Thomas A. Garrett

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2008, Vol. 90, No. 2

Monetary Policy in the Great Depression and Beyond: The Sources of the Fed's Inflation Bias by David C. Wheelock

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 1997-11







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Recent Research by Topic



COVID-19

Employment, Labor, and Unemployment

Finance and Markets

Fiscal Policy and Government Response

International

Macroeconomy

Monetary Policy

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