I’ve highlighted a lot of players prior to the 2018 regular season. I’ve written sleeper posts, busts posts, player profiles and posted my rankings and projections. If you think I’m an arrogant prick for writing about players I was right about, I’ve got to solid reasons for it. #1, as a fantasy analyst, it’s always good to go back to the preseason and check in with where you ranked players and why for both right and wrong, wayyyy wrong (Javier Baez). #2, I will be posting an article highlighting players I was wrong about following this one. The second article is more important because it will help me learn how and why I missed on them. This is always a great idea for all you fantasy players out there as well. Go back to your draft and do a recap on which players are still on your team and which ones are long gone. Figure out what happened. Alright homies, let’s dive into this.





Understanding the table: Columns 2 & 3 are preseason ADPs, 4th column is my preseason rank, columns 5 & 6 are 2018 final rank

Players I Hit On Razzball ESPN Name Yahoo ADP NFBC ADP My Rank Player Rater Player Rater Francisco Lindor 20 21 12 5 12 Jose Ramirez 26 20 19 4 7 Alex Bregman 54 32 28 16 26 Anthony Rendon 53 55 34 38 55 Lorenzo Cain 92 77 64 60 36 Trevor Story 104 122 78 6 11 David Price 107 105 84 87 71 Joey Gallo 130 109 73 72 165 J.T. Realmuto 135 115 110 52 142 Eugenio Suarez 230 183 150 34 61 Nick Castellanos 127 91 87 47 63 Eddie Rosario 152 123 111 54 72 Charlie Morton 189 168 122 71 54 Jameson Taillon 150 177 144 100 70 Blake Snell 171 195 160 17 8 Mike Clevinger 197 194 175 76 45 Ronald Acuna 195 102 127 51 57 Ozzie Albies 196 120 77 39 63 Tim Anderson 224 194 197 80 95 Jack Flaherty 244 346 240 142 101 Patrick Corbin 316 231 152 62 28 Shin-Soo Choo 362 262 164 127 147 Mitch Haniger 375 218 190 33 47 Cesar Hernandez 371 261 192 97 113 Marcus Semien 384 226 131 106 127 Players I was Yahoo NFBC My Razzball ESPN down on ADP ADP Rank P Rater P Rater Clayton Kershaw 4 5 16 113 66 Kris Bryant 12 15 23 301 298 Corey Seager 30 40 37 948 1041 Brian Dozier 38 36 44 146 230 Buster Posey 56 59 109 253 394 Robinson Cano 58 81 103 383 332 Byron Buxton 60 48 71 1012 1217 Dallas Keuchel 67 73 102 200 181 Chris Archer 65 56 68 323 379 Miguel Cabrera 67 93 100 861 787 Rafael Devers 84 112 121 219 267 Kyle Seager 115 137 187 241 350 Lance McCullers 89 135 159 173 172 Gio Gonzalez 146 159 215 315 366 Greg Bird 152 175 185 780 946 Blake Parker 187 239 260 359

If you’re interested, I share the link to my preseason projections via google sheets.

Francisco Lindor (CLE – SS)

Lindor finished the season with a 5×5 line of .277/129/38/92/25! Um, yes, please!

That’s incredible and finished inside the top 10 overall any way you slice it. His teammate Jose Ramirez who I was also very high on largely overshadowed Lindor’s 2018 season but now that 2018 has concluded, they both finished with just about the same value. I think it’s safe to say that Lindor is an easy 30-20 performer with batting average upside. I’d even say there’s an argument to take Lindor #2 overall. Assuming Betts has some BABIP regression, what’s the difference between the two?

Alex Bregman (HOU – SS/3B)

I received some pushback when I ranked Bregman inside the top 30 overall in my preseason ranks. He didn’t exactly come out like gangbusters but since May 18th, here’s the kid’s line .296/86/28/87/7. So he didn’t run as much but in those 4.5 months, he outperformed a full season of Anthony Rizzo. Bregman’s approach and profile are about as pretty as it gets. Think Jose Ramirez with less speed. Bregman is a top 15 pick next year, but like I said in my sleeper article, 2018 is the last time you’ll get a discount.

Lorenzo Cain (MIL – OF)

Cain has been undervalued in fantasy circles since I can remember. No one is all that interested in 10-15 homers and 25 steals. However, when it comes with a .300+ average and boat-load of runs, I’m all in. Cain will be 32 years old in 2019 but his skills are as good as ever. I think his power numbers increase next year, but more on that in the offseason. Cain is worth rostering again in 2019 despite costing you a top 50 pick (most likely).

David Price (BOS – SP)

Price started 2018 a bit slow which is understandable considering his struggles in 2017 where he actually closed the season out of the bullpen. 2018 was a prime year to grab the former-Ace coming off his poor 2017. His overall line is solid but his rank is boosted a bit by the 16 wins. I don’t believe there will be much value going into 2019 after a successful 2018, so this was there year to own him. However, if his ADP slips, I might just have a share if the price is right.





Trevor Story (COL – SS)

This was a risky ranking on my end. I knew the downside was huge with Story’s elevated strikeout rate and the fact that Brendan Rodgers was lurking in the Minors provided plenty of questions. However, the fact that Story provided elite level power with some speed while playing in Colorado justified my ranking with some room for profit. I’ll take a talented 26-year-old who had already performed at a very high level for about 2/3rds of a season as a rookie. I actually projected 33 homers but never expected 25 steals! Or did I???

JT Realmuto (MIA – C)

J.T. was the only catcher I ranked above other outlets and it panned out. What’s interesting to me is the fact that he didn’t really run and still managed a very solid ranking at the end of the season. The reason ESPN’s rated Realmuto so low is the fact that they do not account for position scarcity as Razzball does. Realmuto’s power numbers since 2015 look like this 10, 11, 17, 21. I won’t have Realmuto below the #2 catcher in 2019, the only question is if he will be #1 or not.

Nick Castellanos (DET – 3B/OF)

Despite being on one of the worst offensive clubs coming into 2018 and losing a broken Miguel Cabrera early in the season, Castellanos has managed to put together a very solid campaign. The Statcast darling was at it again hitting 182 balls over 95 mph and finishes with a 47.9% hard contact rate per FanGraphs. I have to dig into his profile to figure out how his hard contact and pull% both went up but his HR/FB went down. I can see owning Castellanos again next year because he’s going to be once again undervalued.

Eddie Rosario (MIN – OF)

Eddie “Money” Rosario really faded down the stretch. He actually finished the season with slightly less value than he had in 2017 with a few more PA. It’s funny because I don’t actually like his profile but still felt he was undervalued coming into the year. I actually wrote about him on FantasyPros early in May as a sell candidate. He then went nuts for the next two months but this is where you have to stick your guns. The poor plate discipline and moderate batted ball profile ultimately did him in.

Eugenio Suarez (CIN – 3B)

I really have not been able to find any expert who ranked Suarez higher than I did coming into 2018 and he still outperformed that rank by nearly 100 spots. Suarez’s improvements both in plate discipline and launch angle provided the reasoning behind my optimism. Sure, he faded a bit down the stretch but Suarez maintained consistent quality contact all year with an insane 48.6% hard contact rate, 24.6% line drive rate, and only a 2.8% IFFB rate. Those are prime Joey Votto type numbers. Suarez is one of the picks I’m most proud of. Will people really be asking Suarez or Bryant in 2019??? Ok, I doubt that, but it’s not all that crazy.

Ronald Acuña (ATL – OF)

I can’t take much credit here. Yahoo’s rank for the 2018 preseason top prospect was criminally low. Obviously, the NFBC ADP paints a different picture. Acuna is an absolute beast to which I did not fully expect this early on. The power is already probably a 70-grade out of 80, he’s got easy power and he’s 20 YEARS OLD! I could go on and on, but I see myself projecting Acuna for 30-35 homers and near 20 steals. This is nuts!





Ozzie Albies (ATL – 2B)

The day before Opening Day I wrote an article predicting power breakouts and Albies was on my target list thanks to an approach change increasing his launch angle. This change starting in Triple-A in 2017, but no one seemed to notice. The comparison to a 21-year-old Mookie Betts is a lofty one but he still has some work to do. I did project 20 homers as early as 2018 and thanks to his insane first month and a half, he’s reached that total and more. The steals remain an enigma to me. Again, this kid is still only 21, I think the sky’s the limit.

Patrick Corbin (ARI – SP)

Even though my overall rank did not reflect this, one of my bold predictions had Corbin inside the top 20 starting pitchers. Nailed it! Yahoo Had Corbin around 90th overall and even the NFCB had Corbin drafted around the 65th SP off the board. If Suarez was the hitter I was most proud of, Corbin was just that in terms of the pitcher’s that I projected. While I did not foresee the massive jump in strikeouts for Corbin, I did notice solid improvements to his control and most importantly, health. His slider was very good in 2017, so I anticipated increased usage, but not to the extent Corbin used his slider in 2018. Either way, Corbin could even be better in 2019.

Shin-Soo Choo (TEX – OF)

No one ever seems to be on the Choo-Choo Train (except maybe myself and @BatFlipCrazy). Criminally underrated again, Choo continues to post respectable fantasy numbers despite being left for dead on draft day. Maybe it was because of the Willie Calhoun hype or the scared on Delino DeShields (guilty) of stealing some playing time. Early in his career, Choo was a solid 20/20 threat with good batting average. While the speed is basically gone, the 20-homer pop is still there along with the ability to get on base. Choo batted in the two-hole quite a bit so his run total was fantastic. Choo just keeps chugging along.

Mitch Haniger (SEA – OF)

Haniger probably had one of the quietest top 50 fantasy seasons I’ve seen in a while. Go and ask the average fantasy player how high Haniger’s season rank was and I bet you get something around 100 overall. Haniger was finally healthy in his age-27 season and he was rock solid. His rate stats are almost right in line with his injury-shorten 2017. Haniger will net nearly 700 plate appearances this year so unfortunately, there isn’t much room for upside based on his 2018 results. That doesn’t mean he won’t carry value, but it will depend on his 2019 ADP.

Players I was down on and was right about

Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP)

Simply put, it’s not the talent with Kershaw, it’s the health. The back scares me and it appears to be a chronic issue for Kershaw. I just can’t trust more than 150-160 innings from him going forward. Those innings will be top-5 in terms of starting pitcher ratios but for me, he’s no longer in the elite group. I only had him below Scherzer and Kluber in my 2018 rankings, but it was late enough to where I knew I wouldn’t own him. Looking forward to 2019, he will not be in my top 5 and will probably settle in towards the back end of the top 10 for SPs.

Kris Bryant (CHC – 3B, OF)

Bryant was hurt this year. His shoulder landed him on the DL for a good portion of the season and never seemed to regain any power upon his return. I don’t know what the offseason will bring, he may even need surgery. Either way, Bryant was a different hitter in 2017 which is why I was down on him coming into the year. As a Cubs fan, I had seen the noticeable changes to his approach. Still very patient, increased contact, hitting the ball to all fields, but less power. I knew he was not the 40-homer hitter he was two years ago and without much speed, I couldn’t rank inside the top 20 overall.





Buster Posey (SF – C)

Posey’s time as an elite offensive backstop is over. I wrote a bust post on him prior to the 2018 season comparing him to Joe Mauer. Posey has simply caught way too many innings in his 20s and I did not want to be the one left holding the bag with him. His health and power will continue to be my concerns moving forward. The catcher position is so thin, I don’t know if I can rank him inside the top 5 at the position in 2019. I can tell you one thing, I won’t be drafting a catcher inside of the top 200 picks.

Dallas Keuchel ( HOU – SP)

I was down on Keuchel because of how razor-thin his margins were based on his pitching profile. There are concerns with his low strikeout rate and extreme ground ball rate. With hitters continuing to find ways to elevate the baseball, I saw regression in Keuchel’s ground ball rate which was 66.8% in 2017! Then there were concerns with his health, only averaging 156 innings the last two seasons. Alas, he stayed healthy all season and made 34 starts! Even with the longevity, his numbers still disappointed based on ADP. The ground ball rate was down to 54% and the strikeouts dipped as well.

Kyle Seager (SEA – 3B)

Seager’s profile from 2017 did not give me any optimism in terms of a bounce back for 2018. His extreme flyball rate completely damaged his batting average and Seager only maintained moderate power numbers. For me, it was one or the other. Either he maintains the power with a poor batting average or loses the power and gets back to .275. Well, he struggled in both categories with a .221 average and only 22 homers. Seager is only 30 years old but it feels like he’s going on 36. I’m glad I got off the Seager train a year early.

2018 Preseason Projections