“Beto Rally at the Pan American Neighborhood Park, Austin” by crockodile is licensed under CC BY 2.0

Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic primary field by five points in his home state, and Joaquin Castro has a dominant lead over other potential candidates in the Senate primary. These results and more emerged from Change Research’s poll of 1,578 likely Democratic primary voters in Texas, conducted between April 18 and 22, 2019.

O’Rourke Ahead in the Horse-Race

O’Rourke leads the Democratic primary horse-race among Texas voters with 25%, followed by just-announced Joe Biden (20%), Bernie Sanders, (19%), and Pete Buttigieg (15%). Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren fall in fifth place with 5%, followed by Julián Castro (4%) and Cory Booker (2%). All other candidates poll at 2% or less:

Texas Horse-Race, April 18–22, 2019

O’Rourke leads among competitors when voters are asked which candidate they would describe as smart, honest and ethical, and likable, but falls to fifth in candidates described as tough:

Candidates by Trait in Texas, April 18–22, 2019

State of the Senate Race

When asked to choose among a list of potential candidates for the U.S. Senate primary in 2020, 43% of voters preferred Joaquin Castro, followed by Colin Allred (5%). Kim Olson, MJ Hegar, Veronica Escobar, and Royce West are tied for third with 3% each. However, in this question, a full third of voters (33%) said they were not sure who they would vote for among this list.

When asked a follow-up question, who they would vote for if they had to choose, 40% of voters again selected Castro, followed by Escobar (6%), Allred (4%), Hegar (3%), and Sylvia Garcia (3%). However, when forced to choose a candidate, over a third of voters (36%) indicated that they would not vote in the primary.

Click here for full poll toplines.

Change Research surveyed 1,578 likely 2020 Democratic primary voters in Texas from April 18–22, 2019. The survey was conducted online, using Change Research’s Bias Correct Engine. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, and 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ± 2.5%.

This is one of over 100 polls Change Research will be conducting this year as part of our 2020 Change polling subscription product. Most will be available to subscribers only. Please contact us for more information.