The International Monetary Fund’s pro-forma World Outlook says one thing: the worried tone and faces of its officials in Davos tell quite another.

We came far closer to a global economic and financial crisis over the summer than most people realised. While drastic action by central banks averted a recessionary chain-reaction, the world has patently not achieved "escape velocity" and remains vulnerable to the slightest shock.

That is the message – and not so sotto voce, either – from the IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva. “We have not reached a turning point yet,” she said.

Mrs Georgieva’s advice to the world’s governments is switch to a “systematic reliance on fiscal tools” and keep preparing for the storm. “Be ready to act if growth slows again. That means having your portfolio of projects prepared,” she said.

This fragility remains despite 71 interest rate cuts by 49 central banks worldwide and a return to quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, what she described as the “most synchronised monetary easing since the global financial crisis”.

If the authorities had not moved with such alacrity, she said, “we would have technically been talking about recession”.

The IMF’s chief economist, Gita Gopinath, clearly does not believe either that we are out of the woods after that disconcerting glimpse into the abyss. “Three months ago, we were worried the risks were so large they could derail growth. There is simply no room for complacency,” she said.