And while there's no obvious Turnbull-style challenger to the throne just yet, Abbott is clearly trying to set himself up as the sensible, firm-but-fair alternative to the man that can currently do no right. He's been calling for greater transparency and democracy in the NSW Liberals (which, conveniently, would also weaken Turnbull's local support base while bolstering his own) and apologising for not supporting the Malaysian Solution proposed by the Gillard government when he was leader of the opposition. And hey, who doesn't love a good redemption story?

Abbott's not popular enough to be reinstated as yet, but after six months of Turnbull failing to get anything through the impossible new Parliament created by his double dissolution there are going to be even more backbenchers eager to buy into the delusional belief that they would have romped into a greater majority victory if only they'd kept good old Tony at the helm. So the plebiscite will be perfect timing.

The majority of the Coalition - or, more accurately, less than half of the Liberals but almost all of the Nationals - oppose same sex marriage. And that group of Liberals are overwhelming folks that a) supported Abbott and b) do not much care for Turnbull. Indeed, among their number are those who have been perfectly happy to indicate that they have no intention of respecting the result of the plebiscite.

And, since plebiscites are non-binding, MPs and senators are under no obligation to even acknowledge the result of the vote, beyond out of respect for the leadership of their party.

Those same people, however, are also among the the folks who've been most outspokenly critical of their leader in recent times. Abbott loyalist Eric Abetz has been outspoken about the government's terrible election result, while Cory Bernardi is planning to reintroduce doomed legislation to water down the Racial Discrimination Act, despite the Prime Minister insisting that it won't get up.