The state is constitutionally required to make a payment of almost $250 million into the fund in the next fiscal year, which it is likely to do immediately to boost the reserve to almost $940 million. Then it would draw down $425 million for fiscal 2015 and $250 million for fiscal 2016, Stosch said last week.

If that happens, Jones predicted that the state would be able to adjust upward state aid to local school divisions for K-12 education, make required contributions to the Virginia Retirement System for state employees and teachers, and pay the debt on higher education capital projects.

He also hopes to protect $50 million to $60 million in proposed new state spending to expand mental health services in communities and state hospitals to ensure that people who are a danger to themselves or others will not be released without appropriate treatment, as 24-year-old Austin C. “Gus” Deeds was 13 hours before he attacked his father and killed himself.

“I’m certain the priority for the legislature would be to hold harmless the funds in the mental health package,” Jones said.

But he added, “If we can’t access the rainy day fund, the options are going to be much more difficult.”