Assemblyman Todd Gloria and Councilman Scott Sherman will battle to become San Diego’s next mayor in a November runoff that many expect Gloria to win by a wide margin.

Gloria is a Democrat and Sherman is a Republican in a city where the number of registered Democrats is more than double the number of registered Republicans, 331,000 to 163,000.

Turnout among Democrats, which is often weaker than among Republicans in off-year elections, is expected to be strong in November because it will be a presidential election.

Gloria got nearly 30,000 more votes than Sherman in Tuesday’s primary, 78,964 versus 49,403, according to returns reported on Wednesday. And Gloria got more than 40 percent of the vote in a six-candidate field where two liberal Democrats – Councilwoman Barbara Bry and community activist Tasha Williamson — finished third and fourth.


“Gloria should win by a comfortable margin in November — the largest in modern times in San Diego,” said Carl Luna, a political science professor at Mesa Community College.

Another factor in Gloria’s favor is that local Republicans and conservative groups are unlikely to focus their resources and energy on Sherman’s campaign because it’s perceived as such an uphill climb, Luna said.

“I don’t think Republicans gain a lot with a scorched-earth campaign against Todd Gloria,” he said.

Instead Luna said he expects a mostly civil campaign featuring a traditional choice between liberal and conservative values and approaches to governing.


If Bry — who finished only 3,000 votes behind Sherman for second place — had made the runoff instead, Luna said he thinks it would have been a more strident and negative campaign.

“There’s nothing uglier than a family fight,” said Luna, noting that Democrats Gloria and Bry were almost identical politically before the mayoral campaign. “It would have been a more robust campaign and an uglier campaign against Bry.”

While Luna said Gloria is a virtual lock, he added that the Assemblyman still faces the challenge of winning over Bry’s supporters, who are typically a bit more moderate.

Gloria will need them because he must have a broad coalition to solve the city’s challenges, such as homelessness and the need to expand the convention center, Luna said.


Gloria said by phone on Wednesday that he expects the battle versus Sherman to be a “civil dialogue” focused on the city’s problems with homelessness and lack of affordable housing.

He said the debate about housing would benefit from the departure of Bry, who was less enthusiastic about adding dense new developments in older neighborhoods than either Gloria or Sherman.

“Anyone downplaying the need for more housing was not being truthful,” Gloria said.

Gloria said he was pleased to get support from more than 40 percent of voters but said he won’t be complacent about his chances in November.


“I run all of my campaigns as if I’m 10 points behind,” he said.

Sherman warned against underestimating him, noting that he’s won races as an underdog before.

He said he plans to focus on the different ideological approaches to government that he and Gloria take.

“Todd is all about government solutions and I’m all about getting the government out of the way so individuals can make things happen,” Sherman said. “This is going to be fun, because Todd and I have got some big differences.”


In particular, Sherman said his approach to the housing crisis is based on softening regulations and creating new incentives for the private sector.

Gloria said he supports those strategies but his approach is more of a blend of public and private efforts.

“I don’t believe the government can subsidize its way out of the affordability crisis,” he said. “But there is a role for the public sector, particularly in housing for our most vulnerable residents.”

Bry had not conceded the second slot in the runoff to Sherman as of Wednesday afternoon, but she sent an email to supporters saying she would “continue to work for accountability and transparency at City Hall” if she lost.


She also hailed her own campaign.

“I do know that our performance has shocked the establishment,” she said. “I know that the political insiders didn’t expect a one-term City Councilmember to break through the noise of partisan politics and overcome the institutional advantages that fueled my party-backed opponents.”

Gloria finished with 40.23 percent, followed by Sherman with 25.17 percent and Bry with 23.61 percent. Williamson finished a distant fourth with 5.73 percent.