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National Bank of Canada Chief Executive Officer Louis Vachon doesn’t see much prospect of a Canadian recession in the next six to 12 months — barring unforeseen circumstances.

“There needs to be another shoe to drop somewhere,” Vachon said Wednesday during a conference his bank hosted in Montreal. “There has to be further tightening by the central banks in North America, which appears to be unlikely at this stage, or some kind of macro-economic or geopolitical accident, which as you know is almost impossible to predict.”

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While financial-market indicators of recessions are beginning to flash red and Canadian economic growth nearly stalled at the end of 2018, signs of strength remain. The nation’s labour market, for example, is off to a roaring start this year.