The fear that history is about to repeat itself is haunting the International Monetary Fund.

In the early 2000s, the body responsible for overseeing the global economy could see banks were taking big risks. Assuming benign market conditions would go on for ever, banks took punts with not much capital in reserve if things went bad. When they did in 2008, the result was the most profound economic shock since the 1930s. Supervision and regulation of banks was tightened, but only when it was too late.

Global economy faces $19tn corporate debt timebomb, warns IMF Read more

In light of that experience, the latest IMF Global Financial Stability Report makes for scary reading. Corporations see no end to the era of low interest rates and have loaded up on debt. In the event of a recession only half as severe as that of 2008-09, the IMF estimates that in the major countries studied, the debt of companies where the interest payments could not be met from earnings would reach $19tn (£15tn) – almost 40% of the total.

In the IMF’s view, there would be a considerable amount of corporate distress that would have the effect of amplifying the downturn, just as the freezing up of bank lending exacerbated the pain caused by the global financial crisis.

A couple of years ago, the IMF thought the problem was less serious because it saw interest rate rises from the US Federal Reserve as the beginning of a trend in which the appetite for debt would be curbed by dearer borrowing costs.

But in the past 12 months, central banks have started easing policy once more, and that has set off alarm bells at the IMF. It is telling governments it would be a good idea to improve supervision and crack down on over-leveraged companies now, rather than do it in five years’ time after yet another crisis.