2018 Delaware Primary Preview

Today we have an unusual Thursday primary in Delaware. Polls close at 8p ET and we will be liveblogging. Flip over for Legislative Primary Previews!

DE-Sen (D, R) : Both sides have primaries for the Senate seat.

Incumbent Tom Carper (D) is seeking a fourth term. Carper has been a backbench moderate liberal in the Senate, which has made him a good fit for a state that loves its milquetoast moderate liberal pols. Carper has been intermittently hit for his admission that he beat his then-wife in the 80s. However, the issue does not seem to have left a lasting impact on Carper. Of more consequence to the Dem electorate is Carper’s relative moderation, particularly on fiscal issues; Carper has generally been among the most business-friendly members of the Senate Dem caucus.

Nonprofit exec and veteran Kerri-Evelyn Harris (D) is Carper’s rival. Harris, who is openly lesbian, has little more than a “Some Dude” level profile; however, she does have a ideological niche in her far-left platform. She thus has significant institutional support from far-left groups, including Our Revolution and Ocasio-Cortez. However, her fundraising is very poor and she does not seem to have poached much of Carper’s support from the more traditional state establishment. Overall, Carper should be a very strong favorite for renomination, but the chances of a freak upset are not entirely zero.

Republicans also have a primary. Financial attorney Gene Truono (R) is the better-funded of the two, thanks to $160K in self-funding, though both Republicans have had poor totals. Truono is running as a moderate; he has been hit for just joining the GOP from independent status last year. He is openly gay and received some free media from a one-on-one debate with Harris a few weeks ago.

Sussex County commissioner Rob Arlett (R) has the stronger political resume and more establishment support. Arlett has served as a county commissioner for three years, defeating a Dem incumbent to win his seat, and is running as an establishment conservative. However, Arlett’s fundraising has been very poor, barely enough to run a serious campaign.

Overall, there is no clear favorite in the GOP primary. Assuming Carper is renominated, neither of the Republicans seems likely to give him a real challenge. However, if Harris were to pull the upset, her mediocre resume and far-left platform could potentially allow the GOP nominee to make the race competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

DE-AG (D) : The AG’s seat is open, as incumbent Matt Denn (D), previously considered a rising star, has instead decided to retire and decamp for work in the private sector. Four Democrats are facing off; interestingly, none of the candidates in this race has elected or even campaign experience.

County official and former state prosecutor Kathy Jennings (D) is the clear front-runner, as she has raised twice as much as her three opponents combined. Jennings has served as the top appointed administrator in New Castle County, covering a majority of the state’s population. She is running as an establishment liberal with some mild upscale progressive tendencies, which is a decent fit for the state’s primary and general electorates.

Gov. Carney administration official Chris Johnson (D) is running as a bold progressive, pledging to legalize marijuana, never seek the death penalty, and reduce prison sentences. Johnson has considerable support from the far-left side of the party and has fundraised credibly, though nowhere near Jennings’s totals.

AG’s office CoS LaKresha Roberts (D) has served as Denn’s top deputy. She is running as a bold progressive, with making Delaware a sanctuary state a signature issue. Roberts has fundraised credibly, but far-left groups seem to be gravitating toward Johnson as their candidate of choice.

Former state prosecutor Tim Mullaney (D) was a top deputy to Denn’s predecessor, the late ex-AG Beau Biden (D). Mulllaney is running as an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies, and has some significant labor support, but his fundraising has been the weakest of the four Democrats.

Overall, Jennings looks like the clear favorite in the primary, but any of her three rivals, particularly Johnson, could have a chance to pull the upset. Republicans are running attorney and former state prosecutor Bernard Pepukayi (R), who entered the race just a few days ago after the prior candidate made a late withdrawal. Pepukayi has an interesting story of having a felony drug conviction at age 18 (for which he has since received a pardon) before turning his life around. However, it seems likely that the Dem nominee will be a strong favorite in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

DE-Aud (D) : The State Auditor’s seat is open, as longtime incumbent Tom Wagner (R) is retiring. Three Democrats are facing off.

Rehoboth Beach councilwoman and 2016 LG candidate Kathleen McGuiness (D) is looking like the front-runner for the seat. McGuiness ran a credible bid for LG in 2016 as a moderate liberal, coming in third in a crowded field despite having little name recognition in the state’s populous northern portion. Her prior run two years ago may have helped her bid on that front. McGuiness has had the best funding for this race by far, aided by self-funding, and also has the strongest establishment support.

Former Auditor’s office CoS Kathleen Davies (D) served as Wagner’s top deputy. However, there is no love lost between the two, as Wagner fired Davies last year following a scathing report on her tenure. The report alleges that Davies created a hostile work environment, engaged in favoritism in contracts, and disclosed secret information to a Democratic legislator. Davies has pushed back against the allegations. She is running as an establishment liberal and has some institutional support, most notably an endorsement from the teachers’ union.

Ex-State Rep. Dennis Williams (D) represented a district in suburban Wilmington for three terms before being ousted in a 2014 primary; he lost a comeback bid by a wide margin two years alter. Williams seems to have little institutional support, though his residual name recognition may allow him to surprise.

Overall, McGuiness looks like a moderate favorite over Davies, with Williams a long-shot, but any of the three could have some chance to win. Republicans’ nominee is 2016 State Senate candidate James Spadola (R), a former investor who left finance to become a cop. Spadola ran a credible race for a Dem-leaning State Senate seat two years ago, but will likely be an underdog to any Dem nominee. Thus, Dems look like moderate favorites to pick up this seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

DE-Treas : Incumbent Ken Simpler (R) is seeking a second term. A former hotel executive and investor, Simpler is considered one of the few rising stars on the state’s meager GOP bench after winning this seat in 2014. Simpler proved a strong candidate in his 2014 run, defeating a credible opponent by 10 points. However, he may face a tough challenge for re-election in the worse environment. Democrats did not find any established pols to take on Simpler, and are running healthcare consultant Colleen Davis (D). Davis seems an unexceptional Generic D-type candidate, but could be a credible surfboard in a wave. Overall, Delaware is a blue state, but a small one where candidates can get their own brand easily. Simpler is also a strong incumbent and Davis seems somewhat “B” to “C” list. Thus, Simpler looks like a slight but noticeable favorite for a second term. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

Flip over for Legislative Primary Previews!

Delaware Senate :

DE-SD-2 (D) is an open D+37 seat covering the poor east side of Wilmington and slumburbs to the south near the Delaware Memorial Bridge. Four Democrats are facing off: Wilmington councilman Sam Guy (D), ex-Wilmington councilman Darius Brown (D), Wilmington police chief Bobby Cummings (D), and 80s-era ex-State Rep. Herman Holloway Jr. (D). There is no clear favorite between Guy and Brown, while Cummings and Holloway seem longer-shots but could surprise.

DE-SD-3 (D) is an open D+34 seat covering central and western Wilmington. State board member Tizzy Lockman (D) has more establishment support and looks like the clear favorite over legislative staffer Jordan Hines (D), though Hines is serious and an upset may be a slight possibility.

DE-SD-17 (R) is an open D+10 seat covering Dover. Two Republicans are vying to head to an uphill general against State Rep. Trey Paradee (D). Camden Mayor Justin King (R) is facing off with businesswoman and NAACP official Donyale Hall (R), who is well-funded; both are serious and there is no clear favorite in the primary.