Is NY-9 about marriage?

As I wrote about the question of Israel in New York's 9th district, the polling suggests that the crucial issues here are the big ones: Dissatisfaction with Obama and with America's direction.

That said, other questions are certainly in play. People who work in New York's Orthodox Jewish politics say that David Weprin's support for same-sex marriage has been a major issue in the district, whose Orthodox Jews aren't the closely-knit Chasids who don't care much about which outsiders marry one another, but more traditional social conservative voters.

And on that theme, a dueling pair of memos just arrived in my inbox, each making rather absolutist claims on the issue. Here they are:

From the National Organization for Marriage:

Another reason why David Weprin is hurting today is because of his vote earlier this year to legalize same-sex marriage. Ethnic and racial minorities are breaking with Dems on this issue and now it may cost them a usually safe seat in Queens. Even Queens Assemblyman Dov Hikind crossed party lines to endorse Republican Bob Turner because of Weprin's same-sex marriage vote, and a Public Policy Polling poll indicates that voters in NY-9 oppose same-sex marriage 45%-41%. The National Organization for Marriage (NOM) invested $75k in mailers in NY-9 late last week; Rabbi Zechariah Wallerstein recorded robocalls yesterday on NOM’s behalf; and NOM has been quoted in various publications regarding their strong influence in this race.... “Marriage is an issue that is not going away,” said Brian Brown, NOM’s president. “When you have voters who have been betrayed by their elected officials on an issue as important as marriage, the impact on the election cycle is a big one.”

Reply the gay groups Human Rights Campaign and Freedom to Marry:

It’s not surprising that virulently anti-gay groups like the National Organization for Marriage are arguing that the freedom to marry has played some sort of noteworthy role in the Weprin-Turner race for New York’s Ninth Congressional District. Whoever wins tonight, marriage equality did not play an influential, even modest, role in the outcome of this special election. What people are focused on are jobs, jobs, and more jobs.

They write that the issue doesn't show up in polling, that Republican Bob Turner has downplayed the issue, and that Anthony Weiner was an outspoken advocate for same-sex marriage.

It seems to me fair to suggest that the issue helped on the margins, and in a close race, margins matter.

UPDATE: The issue does actually show up in polling: 29% identified it to PPP as important.