

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul hosts a roundtable in Detroit, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2014. Paul visited the state to lend his support to fellow Republicans. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Today in unexpected yet oddly predictable headlines: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) wants to declare war against the Islamic State.

Unexpected given his political identity, which has been rooted heavily in a libertarian-leaning worldview defined by heavy skepticism of military intervention abroad and concerns about an overly aggressive national security apparatus.

Predictable when viewed in the context of Paul's maneuverings ahead of a likely 2016 presidential bid. It's the latest instance of the Kentucky senator preemptively addressing one of his biggest potential weak spots in a GOP presidential primary race.

So far, polls show his strategy is working. In addition to winning new allies and possibly assuaging fears he wouldn't be a tough enough commander-in-chief, Paul stands at or near the head of the wide-open field of Republican White House hopefuls.

A Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire poll released Monday shows him tied with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) at 16 percent in the first-in-the-nation primary state. (Only Mitt Romney, who says he is not planning to run again, gets more support.) His 65 percent favorable rating is the best of the bunch.

Paul was also near the top of the heap in a recent Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register poll of the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa.

In interviews with the Daily Beast and the New York Times published the last couple of days, Paul and an adviser articulated his plan to introduce a resolution in Congress to formally declare war against the Islamic State in the Middle East. At a time when Republicans have sharply criticized President Obama for depending too heavily on executive actions, most recently on immigration, Paul wants Congress to throw its weight around more on foreign policy.

“Conservatives are mad at him about immigration. And they’re mad about him using executive authority on Obamacare,” Paul told the Times. “But this is another example where he doesn’t have much respect for Congress, and some conservatives don’t quite get that.”

Back in June, Paul had sounded a much more skeptical note about striking the Islamic State.

"Yes, we should prevent them from exporting terror -- but I’m not so sure where the clear-cut American interest is," he told NBC's "Meet The Press."

Paul's new tack comes at a time when most of the American public -- including prominent members of both parties -- have backed the U.S. military action against the Islamic State. It's a striking turn of events for a country that grew war-weary in the wake of lengthy and expensive fights in Iraq and Afghanistan -- a fatigue that helped fuel Paul's earlier rise.

It also comes as Paul is gearing up to potentially face a very hawkish field of Republican presidential opponents like Christie, Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, all of whom have clashed publicly with the Kentucky Republican. Paul's disagreements with Cruz have been cordial. With Christie and Perry, they've had far more of an edge.

"Paul is drawing his own red line along the water’s edge, creating a giant moat where superpowers can retire from the world," Perry wrote in a July Washington Post op-ed.

Paul's preparation for 2016 has been as much about proving to his party what he is not as it has been about laying out what he stands for. In addition to addressing concerns he isn't tough enough on foreign policy, Paul has been working hard to show that -- unlike his father Ron Paul -- he can get along with the GOP establishment.

He endorsed and campaigned for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), shielding him against the threat of a tea party challenge. Now, the soon-to-be Senate majority leader has pledged to support Paul if he runs for president in 2016.

Paul also campaigned for mainstream GOP Senate challengers who won in Alaska and North Carolina -- despite the presence of Libertarian candidates on both races. He also enlisted in the successful effort to rescue longtime Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), an establishment figure who was on the brink of defeat before a strong finish.

The Kentucky senator's navigation of the politics of the last two years reflects a keen awareness of the ways he needs to shore up his image to compete in 2016. Like any successful athlete, Paul knows which parts of his game need to the most fine-tuning.

There are bound to be many Republicans who won't buy Paul's pitch as a strong commander-in-chief. If Christie and Perry enter the 2016 sweepstakes with Paul, they will no doubt stoke those concerns and raise questions about his shifting views. The same can be said of skepticism about Paul's willingness to back the party establishment.

But for now, his strategy is doing the job. He could hardly ask for a better showing in the early polls amid crowded field. He has already scored an early endorsement from one of the most powerful Republicans in Washington. And he appears as aware of his own vulnerabilities as any prospective candidate.

In other words: it's probably safe to expect more unexpected headlines from the 2016 hopeful.