Follow the Brexit Opinion Polls here at Electomatic. Opinion polling for the upcoming referendum on STAY / LEAVE for the UK in The EU. The campaigns have only just started with most of the political scene, the business community and the media supporting a STAY vote with most of UKIP lead by Nigel Farage and a fraction of the Conservative Party led by mayor of London Boris Johnson as its figurehead.

2016 – 28.April Update – New Brexit Opinion Polls – Remain Leads

A new batch of brexit opinion polls for the upcoming referendum on UK membership of the EU still show an overall lead for the Remain campaign. Generally Leave does better in online polls whilst Remain shines in more traditional telephone interview polls. Which type is better is a matter of methology however in general the firms using telephone interview data tend to have a better track record.

Date Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Polling Type Notes 25–26 Apr 41% 42% 13% 1,650 YouGov Online Poll remainder “won’t vote” 25–26 Apr 45% 38% 17% 1,003 Survation Telephone Poll 22–24 Apr 44% 46% 10% 2,001 ICM Online poll 20–24 Apr 51% 43% 6% 800 ORB Telephone Poll

2016 – 26.April Update – EU Referendum Polling: Huge Remain Lead

For the first time in a while we are seeing statistically significant swings. They are all going in the direction of the UK staying in the EU. Post the Pro-EU leaflet and the Obama interference in the referendum it seems Remain has finally pulled ahead as they were favored to do. The race is far from over but at this stage the Leave campaign needs a game changer to even make referendum-night a nail biter.

16–19 Apr 51% 40% 9% 1,002 ComRes Telephone Poll 16–18 Apr 49% 39% 8% 1,026 Ipsos MORI Telephone Poll

2016 – 16.April Update – Brexit ? Too Close To Call

3 new polls out. One showing a 1% lead for remain, two showing an exactly tied race for the EU referendum in the UK. All 3 polls are performed before the designation of Vote Leave as official Out campaign but after the turmoil following the pro EU leaflets and the Panama Papers.

12-14 Apr 40% 39% 16% 3,371 YouGov Online Poll remainder “won’t vote” 11–12 Apr 39% 39% 17% 1,693 YouGov Online Poll remainder “won’t vote” 7–11 Apr 35% 35% 30% 1,198 TNS Online Poll

2016 – 12.April Update – New UK Referendum Poll shows 42-45%

ICM has a new poll out showing a 3% lead for the out campaign. This is a significant 4% swing from Remain to Leave since the last poll by ICM. In between the two polls have been the revelations on prime minister David Camerons links to tax avoidance in the Panama Papers leak, the Pro-Remain leaflet debate following taxpayer money being spent on the Remain campaign outside the budgets for each side.

It is worth noting that if these hot topics of the day have caused the swing towards Leave, we often see a reversal of the trend when the debate dies down.

Date conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by 8–10 April 42% 45% 13% 2,030 ICM

2016 – 7.April Update: 2 New Brexit Opinion Polls – Marginal Remain Leads

2 new polls have been released. Both showing a 1% lead for the Remain campaign. The movements and leads are too small to be statistically significant.

The polls come among fierce debates about the UK Government spending 9million pounds on leaflets delivered to all households in the country arguing for Remain. It is controversial given both campaigns are limited to 7m in spending, which is being subverted by the government using public funds to more than double the Remain campaign budget – without allowing for inclusion of the Leave counter arguments. The debate and the actual leaflet is not reflected in these polls though, look out for polls conducted after April 6 to start seeing any effects.

Date Remain Leave Undecided Sample By Type 29 Mar–4 Apr 39% 38% 18% 3,754 YouGov Online Poll 1 Apr–3 Apr 44% 43% 13% 2,007 ICM Online Poll

2016 – 6.April Update – New EU Referendum Poll: 7% Remain Lead

ORB has released a new poll showing a significant 7% lead for the Remain campaign. In fact the Remain sides support is unchanged at 51% since the last ORB brexit poll, but the Leave side has lost steam and dropped from 49% to 44%.

The poll comes amidst the developing refugee crisis with the EU trying to send back refugees to Turkey and the Panama Papers leak implicating several world leaders, among others the UK primeminister David Camerons dad, in tax avoidance schemes. It is far from certain that such stories have any effect on the stay/leave vote. But if they were to have an effect this and previous polls were conducted too early to catch any reaction.

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Polling Type Notes 29 Mar–3 Apr 51% 44% 5% 800 ORB Telephone Poll

2016 – 2.April Update – New Brexit Polling Data: 4% Leave Lead

Opinium has joined the ranks of Brexit opinion pollsters with a fresh survery showing a 4% lead for Leave. As in other polls the Leave campaign finds its strongest support among middle-aged and older voters, whilst Remain has a firm lead among youngsters.

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Polling Type 29 Mar–1 Apr 39% 43% 18% 1,966 Opinium Online Poll

2016 – 2.April Update – New EU Referendum Poll shows 51-49%

ORB has released a new poll showing a 2% lead for the remain campaign. It represents a 4% swing from leave to remain since their previous poll of the Brexit campaign. It is worth noting that ORB has eliminated the undecided / wouldnt vote from the poll, thus not being directly comparable to polls allowing for this outcome.

Date conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by 24–28 Mar 51% 49% 0% 2,002 ORB

2016 – 31.March Update – New Brexit Opinion Polls – Very Tight Race

2 new brexit opinion polls have been published after the holidays. TNS debuts on the scene with a poll showing a tied race. The most notable thing about the TNS referendum polling is the finding of 30% undecided voters, well above the norm.

BMG shows a 4% lead for the LEAVE campaign, which is a significant swing towards leave since their previous poll that showed a 44-41 advantage for Remain. However, BMG has not yet released the specifics of the poll. In particular we need to know if the new poll includes Northern Ireland as the last one did. If the new one does not that could account for the swing as Northern Ireland voters have so far indicated favoring Remain heavily.

Date conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by 24–29 Mar 35% 35% 30% 1,193 TNS 24–29 Mar 41% 45% 14% 1,518 BMG Research

In the notes for the 41-45 BMG EU referendum poll they note that the remain campaign may have further problems as they are primarily backed by a younger vote notorious for not actually turning out. Again we do not have their specifics yet so it can not be judged.

2016 – 25.March Update – New Brexit Opinion Poll: Small Leave Lead

A fresh poll from ICM is out. Basically the balance is unchanged. A continued 2% lead for the Leave campaign of 45-43 with 12% undecided. The only change from the previous ICM referendum polling data is fewer undecideds but those who have decided in between have broken evenly.

Date conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by 22–24 Mar 45% 43% 12% 1,970 ICM

2016 – 23.March Update – New ICM and Comres Brexit Polls

Two new UK Brexit polls to report today. Comres has found a 7% lead for the remain campaign whereas ICM reports a 2% lead for the Leave campaign. That might sound like complete nonsense. Combined they tell us exactly nothing you might think, but in fact the devil is in the detail.

The difference between these two polls is hidden in the sample they have chosen (who they have asked) and how they have weighted the results. The 2 companies simply have different ideas about exactly how the sample should be composed. In such a case the interesting thing isnt the specific number, both campaigns can read the one they prefer and celebrate. The rest of us should look at the trend.

In this case Comres had it at 51-39 a month ago making the seemingly good result for the Remain campaign in the UK an actual 5% swing towards Leave during the past month. If we compare to ICM they find about the same. In the preivous Brexit opinion poll from ICM they showed 43-41. In other words they have a 4% swing from remain to leave (the timeframe is not exactly the same but they both show a noticeable swing towards Leave)

Date conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by 18–20 Mar 48% 41% 11% 1,002 ComRes 18–20 Mar 41% 43% 17% TBC ICM

2016 – 18.March Update – ICM Finds Positive Swing For Remain Campaign

Including the previous ICM poll from a week to illustrate the small but noticeable swing from a 1% Leave lead to a 2% Remain lead. This is on the far edge of statistic significance as swings go, we will need more data to see if the remain campaign is pulling ahead. The latest ICM poll also has slightly fewer undecided voters. Again we need more data but if we start seeing the undecided voters breaking for a Remain vote, it spells serious trouble for the Leave campaign

If we include the latest ORB poll from the same period showing a tiny 2% Leave lead and weigh them up against eachother we land on a more or less exactly tied race at this point. Is the UK headed for a Brexit ? The polling data gives us few answers at this stage.

Date conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Notes 11–14 Mar 47% 49% 4% 823 ORB 11–13 Mar 43% 41% 16% 2,031 ICM 4–6 Mar 40% 41% 19% 2,051 ICM

2016 – 16.March Update – New ORB Polling for UK Referendum on EU

A new ORB polling piece shows a narrow lead for the LEAVE campaign. The media has published this poll as a triumph for the LEAVE campagin, however in fact this is a slightly smaller lead than in the previous ORB poll which showed a 48%-52% divide. Statistically insignificant movements but no basis for wild celebrations in the LEAVE camp.

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Notes 11–14 Mar 45% 52% 3% NA ORB Likely Voters 11–14 Mar 47% 49% 4% 823 ORB

In the more interesting sub-data of the poll it is worth noting a very small number of undecided voters. It may be due to polling methodology. They might push harder for an indication than other pollsters, or people may indeed have started making up their minds.

Also, ORB has weighted a “likely voter” screen as you can see in the attached PDF with all the polling data. The spread among likely voters shows a 7% lead for LEAVE campaign, which starts being quite significant. The question with Likely Voters of course always is, if the polling company gets their estimation of who will vote right. If they do not, the weighting might in fact be entirely fictional.

However, if we are indeed seeing a much wider lead for the LEAVE campaign among those likely to vote than in the general population it could be the much debated gap in enthusiasm. Whilst supporters of Brexit are wholeheartedly campaigning, stumping and rallying. The STAY campaign has so far attempted a few scaremongering tactics without mustering much excitement. However, that is a gap that it is fully possible to make up before referendum day in the UK – if the STAY campaign gets in gear.

For a lighter touch on the referendum debate, have a peak at our Political Meme Tracker. Of course the british are featured with plenty of political satire pieces there.

2016 – 10.March Update – New ICM Brexit Opinion Polling

The battle for the hearts and minds of voters in the UK is getting in gear. The referendum on the UKs future in the EU is still basically a dead heat with around a fifth of the voters undecided.

The latest Brexit Opinion poll from ICM shows a 40-41 lead for the LEAVE campaign. It reflects a small move towards the leave vote, however, statistically the movement and difference between the two sides is too small to be significant.

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Notes 4–6 Mar 40% 41% 19% 2,051 ICM

2016 – 6.March Update – UK Referendum Poll on EU from Yougov

A new poll from YouGov shows a small lead for the remain campaign headed by primeminister David Cameron. The 3% lead for the UK staying in the EU is a small swing towards the Remain vote after a few Yougov polls recently showing small leads for the LEAD campaign.

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Notes 2-3 March 40% 37% 18% NA Yougov

The slight shift from LEAVE to REMAIN is too small to attribute to any particular events or trends. However the campaigns do seem to be escalating. The REMAIN campaign has brought about threats from France to dump Calais refugees on English shores. The CEO of BBC has been suspended for stating his support for the UK leaving the EU, a suspension condemned by Boris Johnson among many others.

2016 – 3.March Update – Stay/Leave Poll from ICM

A new poll is out from ICM for the Brexit EU Referendum in the United Kingdom. Both sides command support from 41% with 18% being undecided. This is a small move towards the LEAVE side with the previous ICM poll from 12-14 february showing a 43%-39% lead for the STAY campaign.

Plenty of turmoil, debate and controversy has characterized the last few days in the STAY/LEAVE referendum campaigns. Primeminister David Cameron has been accused of unfair play and scaremongering after denying LEAVE-supporting cabinet members access to government information and ressources, demanding to vet the speeches of foreign leaders to ensure they do not hurt the STAY-campaign and making claims that prices in the UK will go up in case of a LEAVE vote. Such tactics did work in securing David Cameron a win in the Scottish referendum. Question is if it will work in the STAY / LEAVE EU Referendum – so far the brexit exit polls give no clear answer.

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Notes 29 Feb 41% 41% 18% 2,003 ICM

2016 – 28.February Update – Stay/Leave Poll from ORB

A new brexit poll is out conducted 24-24 february from ORB. It is worth noting that ORB has consistently had the LEAVE vote ahead by around this margin consistently. As such, they may have a house effect tilting towards a LEAVE vote – or of course they may be right.

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Notes 24–25 Feb 48% 52% N/A 2,014 ORB

Eitheir way, this long before voting day it is worth noting that the referendum opinion polls should not be taken as predictive. They can not tell us how the many of the undecideds break for LEAVE/STAY, they can not predict events and campaigns changing peoples minds – and as such they do not predict the result. They simply show how the race is going right now and can be used to see trends over time by comparing changes from poll to poll.

2016

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Notes 21–23 Feb 37% 38% 25% 3,482 YouGov 17–23 Feb 44% 41% 15% 1,517 BMG Research Includes Northern Ireland 20 Feb David Cameron announces the date of UK’s In/Out EU referendum after an EU summit in Brussels. 19–22 Feb 51% 39% 10% 1,000 ComRes 13–20 Feb 48% 33% 19% 1,003 Survation 13–16 Feb 54% 36% 10% 497 Ipsos MORI 11–15 Feb 36% 39% 25% 1,079 TNS 12–14 Feb 43% 39% 18% 2,001 ICM 11–14 Feb 49% 41% 10% 1,105 ComRes 5–7 Feb 41% 42% 17% 2,018 ICM 3–4 Feb 36% 45% 19% 1,675 YouGov/The Times 29–31 Jan 42% 39% 19% 2,002 ICM 27–28 Jan 38% 42% 20% 1,735 YouGov 23–25 Jan 55% 36% 9% 513 Ipsos MORI 21–25 Jan 44% 42% 14% 1,511 BMG Research Includes Northern Ireland 22–24 Jan 54% 36% 10% 1,006 ComRes 22–24 Jan 41% 41% 18% 2,010 ICM 15–17 Jan 42% 40% 17% 2,023 ICM 15–16 Jan 38% 42% 20% 1,017 Survation Includes Northern Ireland 8–14 Jan 42% 45% 12% 2,087 Panelbase 8–11 Jan 44% 38% 18% 2,055 ICM

2015

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Sample Conducted by Notes 17–18 Dec 41% 42% 17% 1,598 YouGov 12–14 Dec 58% 32% 10% 529 Ipsos MORI 11–13 Dec 56% 35% 8% 1,001 ComRes 11–13 Dec 42% 41% 17% 2,053 ICM 4–6 Dec 43% 39% 17% 2,022 ICM 2–3 Dec 36% 43% 21% 1,001 ORB 30 Nov–3 Dec 40% 42% 18% 10,015 Survation Includes Northern Ireland 20–24 Nov 41% 41% 18% 4,317 YouGov 19–24 Nov 40% 38% 22% 1,699 YouGov 20–22 Nov 45% 38% 17% 2,002 ICM 17–19 Nov 48% 52% N/A 2,067 ORB 16–17 Nov 43% 40% 18% 1,546 Survation Includes Northern Ireland 11–17 Nov 39% 39% 22% 1,528 BMG Research Includes Northern Ireland 13–15 Nov 43% 38% 19% 2,000 ICM 9–11 Nov 39% 43% 19% 2,007 Survation Includes Northern Ireland 6–8 Nov 46% 38% 16% 2,024 ICM 30 Oct–1 Nov 44% 38% 18% 2,060 ICM 28–29 Oct 39% 41% 19% 1,664 YouGov 22–27 Oct 40% 40% 20% 1,738 YouGov 23–25 Oct 45% 38% 17% 2,049 ICM 23–25 Oct 53% 47% N/A 2,015 ORB 22–23 Oct 42% 39% 16% 1,625 YouGov 19–20 Oct 42% 40% 17% 1,690 YouGov 17–19 Oct 52% 36% 12% 498 Ipsos MORI 14–19 Oct 42% 39% 19% 2,372 GQRR 16–18 Oct 44% 38% 18% 2,023 ICM 7 Oct 44% 39% 17% 1,947 ICM 25–28 Sep 55% 36% 8% 1,009 ComRes 25–27 Sep 45% 38% 17% 2,005 ICM 17–22 Sep 38% 41% 21% 2,781 YouGov 10–17 Sep 38% 40% 22% 11,171 YouGov 11–13 Sep 43% 40% 17% 2,006 ICM 12 Sep Jeremy Corbyn is elected leader of the Labour Party 3–4 Sep 40% 43% 17% 1,004 Survation 18–19 Aug 44% 37% 20% 1,676 YouGov 13–17 Aug 50% 40% 10% 3,402 YouGov 23–29 Jul 45% 37% 19% 1,708 YouGov 16 Jul Tim Farron is elected leader of the Liberal Democrats 29 Jun–6 Jul 45% 37% 18% 5,008 Survation Includes Northern Ireland 19–24 Jun 44% 38% 18% 1,653 YouGov 19–21 Jun 55% 45% N/A 2,000 ORB 14–16 Jun 66% 22% 12% 501 Ipsos MORI 8–11 Jun 43% 36% 21% 2,381 YouGov 1–2 Jun 44% 34% 21% 1,063 YouGov 27 May–2 Jun 42% 35% 22% 2,956 YouGov 29–31 May 58% 31% 11% 500 ComRes 28–31 May 47% 33% 20% 680 ICM 21–22 May 44% 36% 20% 1,532 YouGov 8–15 May 47% 40% 13% 3,977 Survation 7 Apr–13 May 55% 36% 9% 999 Pew Research Center 8–9 May 45% 36% 19% 1,302 YouGov 8–9 May 45% 38% 18% 1,027 Survation 7 May United Kingdom general election, 2015 3–5 May 56% 34% 10% 1,011 ComRes 3–4 May 45% 33% 21% 1,664 YouGov 28–29 Apr 52% 32% 16% 1,823 YouGov 23–28 Apr 47% 33% 20% 1,834 YouGov 19–20 Apr 45% 35% 20% 2,078 YouGov 10–12 Apr 40% 39% 21% 2,036 Populus 8–9 Apr 45% 41% 15% 1,750 Opinium 26–30 Mar 35% 34% 31% 1,197 TNS-BMRB 24–26 Mar 49% 44% 7% 1,007 Panelbase Includes Northern Ireland 18–25 Mar 41% 38% 21% 2,006 YouGov 22–23 Mar 46% 36% 18% 1,641 YouGov 18–23 Mar 42% 34% 23% 8,271 YouGov 23–24 Feb 45% 37% 18% 1,520 YouGov 22–23 Feb 45% 35% 20% 1,772 YouGov 17–20 Feb 41% 44% 15% 1,975 Opinium 25–26 Jan 43% 37% 20% 1,656 YouGov 18–19 Jan 43% 38% 18% 1,747 YouGov 15–19 Jan 38% 34% 28% 1,188 TNS-BMRB 6–8 Jan 37% 40% 23% 1,201 TNS-BMRB

More on the BREXIT Referendum:

Brexit ? Cameron Fails in Bruxelles

Game Changer ? Boris Johnson Campaigns For Brexit

The tables below show polling on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU. It does not ask the question in the context of a proposed prior renegotiation. Polling generally weights the sample to be nationally representative, weights by likelihood to vote and excludes “don’t know” responses. Polls are usually conducted within Great Britain and its surrounding islands, with Northern Ireland normally omitted from the sample. This has historically been the case in UK opinion polling because Northern Ireland has a different set of political parties from the rest of the UK, reflecting the constitutional divide between unions and nationalism or republicanism.

Brexit Opinion Polls

Remember that each opinion poll for the upcoming UK referendum is a picture of the voters opinion on the date they were asked. It does NOT predict what happens from now till the election, people changing their minds, undecideds making up their mind or anything else. Further, each poll has a margin of error. So if you see a 2% lead for the LEAVE campaign, it is simply too close to meaningfully say they are certainly ahead.

All that said, we can follow the trends in support for each side. Does Boris Johnson joining the LEAVE campaign boost it ? Will David Cameron be succesful in selling his Bruxelles deal as “the best of both worlds” or will it keep getting painted as a next to nothing result ? Follow the Brexit Opinion Polls here at Electomatic. But either way. The coming weeks and month will show.

Things to watch for: