John Kasich Ed FitzGerald.png

Republican Gov. John Kasich, left, faces a re-election challenge from Democrat Ed FitzGerald, the Cuyahoga County executive.

(The Associated Press)

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The race for governor has tightened, with Democratic challenger Ed FitzGerald gaining on Republican incumbent John Kasich even after his bungled first stab at picking a running mate and relative lack of cash in the campaign's early months.

Meanwhile, Libertarian Charlie Earl remains an unquantified X-factor.

Quinnipiac University, in survey results released Wednesday, found Kasich leading FitzGerald, 43 percent to 38 percent. For FitzGerald, the Cuyahoga County executive, that's an improvement of 2 percentage points since Quinnipiac last polled the race in November.



The survey did not offer Charlie Earl as a choice. Earl, a former Republican state lawmaker, was certified Tuesday as the Libertarian Party's candidate for governor. Some believe Earl could siphon votes from Kasich, who has upset Tea Party activists and other fiscal conservatives by championing the use of federal dollars to expand Medicaid.

The November poll also did not include Earl. And it began a day before FitzGerald chose his original running mate, State Sen. Eric Kearney, who three weeks later

after his voluminous business and personal financial problems became a distraction.

These latest results suggest the problematic rollout of Kearney left no damage. Last month FitzGerald introduced Dayton-area lawyer Sharen Neuhardt, known for her activism on abortion rights and other women's health issues, as his new pick for lieutenant governor.

Coincidence or not, the new poll shows a boost for FitzGerald among women, who favor him over Kasich, 42 percent to 37 percent. In November, it was 39-38, favoring Kasich.

"Polls will go up and down over the next nine months, but it is clear that Ohioans are responding to Ed FitzGerald because he does not believe the daily financial anxiety Ohio's families have endured under John Kasich should be the new normal," Nick Buis, FitzGerald's campaign manager, said in an emailed statement. "As governor and lieutenant governor, Ed and Sharen will ensure all Ohio's families see their hard work pay off."

Kasich, seeking a second term with Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, has a job-approval rating of 51 percent – barely changed from 52 percent three months ago. And a plurality -- 42 percent -- have a favorable opinion of him, up slightly from 41 percent. When asked simply if Kasich deserves to be re-elected, 46 percent said he did, 42 percent said he did not.

"Gov. Kasich has a positive approval rating because his policies are improving Ohio’s economy and budget outlook," said Chris Schrimpf, communications director for the Ohio Republican Party, which backs Kasich's re-election. "Meanwhile, job-hopping, political opportunist Ed FitzGerald has been campaigning for nearly a year and barely anyone knows who he is, and the non-Democrats who do know him don’t really like him."

Name-recognition has indeed been FitzGerald’s biggest obstacle. A former Lakewood mayor in his first term as county executive, he never before has run for statewide office. When asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of FitzGerald, 70 percent of the Quinnipiac respondents said they did not know enough about him to decide.

That number hasn't much moved since November, when it stood at 71 percent.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,370 registered Ohio voters Feb. 12-17, using live interviewers on landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

"The race to become Ohio's next governor is a five-point game, little changed from the seven-point spread in Quinnipiac University's last survey in November," said Peter A. Brown of Quinnipiac's Polling Institute. "Also unchanged, however, is how relatively few Ohioans -- less than three in ten -- know enough about Democratic favorite Ed Fitzgerald to have an opinion about him. That is a double-edged sword for the challenger: It indicates he has not made much headway in the past three months, but it provides him an opportunity to make up ground among the vast number of voters who are unfamiliar with him."

Also, given his commanding fundraising advantage, Kasich has more money to define FitzGerald than FitzGerald has to define himself, should Kasich choose to go that route.

Kasich scored high among voters when it came to personal characteristics. Sixty-one percent said he has strong leadership qualities, 52 percent find him honest and trustworthy. But when asked if Kasich "cares about the needs and problems of people like you," only 43 percent said yes, with a plurality of 47 percent answering no.

And on issues important to voters, Kasich's numbers are more evenly split. Asked what should be the top priority for Kasich and the state legislature in 2014, 34 percent of respondents said jobs and unemployment, 7 percent the economy in general. But a slight plurality -- 46 percent -- disapprove of Kasich's handling of the economy and jobs.

The poll did not ask voters about Larry Ealy, a Democrat from the Dayton area who filed for governor at the last minute and whose candidacy was certified this week. Ealy, a former tow truck operator and perennial candidate, lacks the party backing and political experience FitzGerald has and is not expected to be much of a factor in the May primary.

As for the Libertarian, Earl won about 5 percent of the vote in the 2010 race for secretary of state -- a race won by Republican Jon Husted. So why not include him in the poll?

"We obviously cannot include every candidate as this actually distorts poll results," Quinnipiac's Brown said. "We primarily consider voter awareness of the candidate. Has the candidate received reasonable mention in the media? Has the candidate developed a viable campaign organization capable of attracting a measurable following?"