After Iowa and New Hampshire, the race moves to potentially favorable terrain for Ms. Harris: Nevada, which borders California and has a large Latino population, then South Carolina. Then, on Super Tuesday, California will be among the states voting, as will four southern states where black voters made up more than a quarter of the 2016 primary electorate.

Even with these advantages, Ms. Harris still has plenty to worry about. Already, she’s fending off attacks on the “tough-on-crime” positions she took as a prosecutor in California. In her first remarks after announcing her campaign, Ms. Harris described the criminal justice system as “horribly flawed.” And her liberal bona fides may be found lacking by an insurgent wing that is ascendant in the party.

Obviously Ms. Harris does not have anything locked down. (Need I take you back to the winter of 2007, when Hillary Clinton led primary polls by double digits.) We’re in the early stages of what will likely be a very, very long primary contest. A lot can happen.

Just ask Howard Dean.

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Talking Points for Biden 2020?

Advisers to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. are circulating a document to his supporters that outlines a rationale for him to run for president and rebuts potential lines of attack — the latest indication that Mr. Biden is leaning toward a 2020 bid but has not yet fully committed.

The talking points, which were sent to The Times’s Jonathan Martin by an ally of Mr. Biden, reflect some of his core arguments he would make if he does enter the Democratic primary. He and his advisers contend that his long experience in politics — he served in the Senate for over 35 years — would represent an appealing contrast to President Trump’s erratic style.

“In a time of almost unprecedented political chaos under a President whose first and last thought every day is about himself, his image, and using the most powerful office in the world to enrich himself, Americans are reacting to — and looking for — the trustworthy, compassionate leadership that Joe Biden has brought to the national and international stage his entire career,” the document states.

But what is more revealing about the 10-paragraph document is that Mr. Biden and his small circle of aides feel the need to sketch out his message before he announces his candidacy. It is, a Biden ally said, “a distillation of his thinking.” The decision to put these thoughts on paper while other Democrats are announcing full-blown campaigns indicates Mr. Biden is still eager to gauge reaction to his candidacy before taking the plunge.