But it is not clear how Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy will negotiate with the BJP

Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief N. Chandrababu Naidu, when Chief Minister of the erstwhile unified Andhra Pradesh, was typified as being ahead of his time, and futuristic. He was the first to refer to himself not as a Chief Minister, but a CEO. He was the first to make thinking of converting Indian cities to resemble a Shanghai or a Singapore no pipe dream, and also administer through teleconferencing.

Rise and ebb

Without doubt one has to credit him with having single-handedly transformed Hyderabad into a mega city with wider roads, swanky flyovers and gardens and parks. He lost elections in 2004, and was staring at a rather bleak future when the decision to bifurcate the State came as a second wind to recalibrate his political fortunes.

After the bifurcation, the people of Andhra Pradesh preferred him over Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy of the YSR Congress Party for his capability to build infrastructure and for his experience as an administrator. But history seems to have repeated itself for Mr. Naidu because he lost the elections in the newly formed State of Andhra Pradesh, yet again, for the same reason: for focussing exclusively on building Amaravathi, the capital, and neglecting the rest of the State, and for talking of infrastructure but not welfare.

He began, unlike his counterpart in Telangana, Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao, with a deficit budget. He joined the National Democratic Alliance with the promise of getting ‘Special Status’ to offset the budgetary deficit.

Political strategy

But the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under its president Amit Shah seemed to have had different plans of establishing its own independent footprint exploiting the popularity of Narendra Modi. They also elevated M. Venkaiah Naidu to the post of Vice-President to lay stake to the claim of ‘Andhra pride’ that took a beating following bifurcation. The BJP did not make much headway and did not allow Mr. Naidu to claim credit for getting additional benefits from the Centre.

With the Congress having no presence, Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy has emerged as the only viable political alternative, and by default represents all that Mr. Naidu’s model of politics eschews. By mirroring his father (the former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy), Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy went on a padayatra in the State, spoke of agrarian distress, of the marginalised, including Dalits and religious minorities. He focussed on various welfare policies that resonated with most sections of society. In spite of allegations of corruption against him, he spoke of possible land deals in choosing the site to build Amaravathi. Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy stayed the course with the BJP in order to avoid, as is widely believed, the excesses of investigative agencies.

It is intriguing to observe how the people of Andhra Pradesh were upset with the BJP for not granting the special status but not with Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy for staying close to them. The BJP was right, in its own cynical way, that not granting additional benefits would rub off against the local ruling party, giving it more capacity to manoeuvre things.

Caste factor

Further, changing caste dynamics have made most regional parties single caste parties. Mr. Naidu’s TDP too has come to represent primarily the interests of the Kammas, and is struggling to represent other castes in equal proportion. In the previous election, while the TDP enjoyed the support of the Kapus, this time around, the Jana Sena Pawan Kalyan’s leadership has eroded it. In many constituencies Kapus form close to 20% of the population and that has made a huge difference to the prospects of the TDP.

Yet again, Mr. Kalyan was known to be on friendly terms with the BJP, though he became more critical in the recent past. It may not be a surprise if he extends his support to the incumbent government. In a sense, this has been the electoral strategy of the BJP — distance and align. Parties that have maintained a distance in order to both mobilise possible discontent against the ruling party in the Centre, and also to garner the votes of minorities and other communities, have the option open to extend their support after the elections.

With the stupendous national victory of the BJP and Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh, the road map is clear for both parties. One has to wait and watch to see how the BJP will try to make inroads in Andhra Pradesh and whether Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy will follow in his father’s footsteps by linking his popularity to the implementation of a range of welfare policies and being able to negotiate a better deal for Andhra Pradesh. In this sense, the battle for Andhra Pradesh has just begun.

Ajay Gudavarthy is with the Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi