As an organization, the Green Bay Packers enter 2018 at an interesting crossroads. Forever a strict draft-and-develop team, the Packers have relied upon consistently spectacular quarterback play to push them into the playoffs.

But that was then and this is now. Aaron Rodgers is not 28 anymore; he’s not even 30. The cornerstone of the franchise will turn 35 in December of this year, and there are far more MVP-level seasons behind him than in front of him.

Draft-and-develop is the team-building equivalent of a 30-year fixed mortgage with a 20% down payment. It’s inherently safe and difficult to criticize. Sometimes, though, it may be more appropriate to strike while the iron’s hot and grab and gamble on that flexible rate; teams may have to pay PMI (dead cap money, in this analogy), but there is value to be had. High risk, high reward, right?

In 2015, the Denver Broncos won the Super Bowl against the Carolina Panthers. While they did draft and develop some quality players – Bradley Roby, for example – the Broncos have established a blueprint for how to buy a Super Bowl. Could the Packers emulate John Elway’s methods? And should they?

First, some context.

The 2011 Denver Broncos finished their season with a middling 8-8 record. The following season, Elway – the team’s vice president of football operations and former Bronco great – signed Peyton Manning, who promptly led the Broncos to a 13-3 mark, losing in the divisional round of the playoffs.

By 2013, the Broncos put together a Super Bowl season, finishing the regular season with a 13-3 record before getting demolished by the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

The following season, 2014, saw one fewer victory (12-4) and a disappointing early playoff exit against Manning’s former team, the Indianapolis Colts. Not by coincidence, this was also when Manning started to become hindered by his own physical limitations.

Finally, in 2015, the Broncos and Manning restrained Father Time just enough to win a Super Bowl against the Carolina Panthers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dss5-GWk6A

Rewinding back to 2011, the Tim Tebow-led, 8-8 Broncos team boasted a defense ranked 24th in points allowed and 20th in total yards. As a remedy, Elway signed Tracy Porter and Manning, the latter of whom represented the biggest shift in fortune for this team.

The Broncos defense in 2012 was excellent. They finished the season ranked second in points allowed and fourth in yards. To get over the hump, Elway grew aggressive. In 2013, he signed receiver Wes Welker, guard Louis Vasquez, defensive tackle Terrance Knighton and cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, among others. That season, the defense actually regressed despite the two additions – a cautionary tale about free agency – finishing the regular season ranked 22nd (points allowed) and 19th (total yards).

After losing to the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, Elway added more weapons, including receiver Emmanuel Sanders, linebacker DeMarcus Ware, cornerback Aqib Talib and safety T.J. Ward. The defense improved to 16th in points allowed and third in total yards.

Elway made changes at the head coaching position, too, hiring Gary Kubiak, who in turn brought in Wade Phillips to coordinate the defense. Even though the Broncos lost Knighton, the defense was unflinchingly good. Their defense ranked fourth in points allowed and first in total yardage. They also finished first by DVOA. The Broncos won the Super Bowl, and they did so in spite of their quarterback.

In 2012, the Broncos spent about $9.8 million above the (roughly speaking) $120 million salary cap (a cash versus cap issue). The following year, the Broncos fell about $7.8 million under the cap. In 2014, the year of several big free agent signings, the Broncos brushed right up against the cap with only $1.2 million in cap space. By 2015, the Super Bowl season, the Broncos were around $5 million under the cap.

From 2012 to 2015, the NFL salary cap rose from $120 million to $150 million. Elway’s financial hubris paid off; despite all conventional wisdom to draft, develop and patch through free agency, Elway built a championship roster from a few key pieces, glued together several with well-established components, and flirted with two trips to the Super Bowl, including one victory.

The Packers currently have what Elway needed in 2011: a franchise quarterback. Not only that, the Packers have a better one. Regardless of how Rodgers compares to Manning, Rodgers at 34 is a much better player than Manning during the twilight of his career.

Granted, the Broncos already had Von Miller, the fulcrum of that unstoppable defense. And unstoppable it was. In their 2015 matchup, the Broncos held Rodgers to 77 yards on 14 completions and zero touchdowns. To this day, that game seemed to have been the one to “break” the Packers’ offense, putting it into its late-2015 season and early-2016 lull.

Free agency can be fickle. The New York Giants turned their fortunes around in 2016 but couldn’t maintain that momentum defensively and imploded in the worst of ways this year.

Is it time for the Packers to shoot their shot? Should they? Can they?

With Rodgers’ age where it is, the Packers should at least consider being more active in acquiring established talent, especially considering how they will be residing in a division with a likely Super Bowl contender.

Financially, if the cap keeps rising as it has been, the risks may not be as substantial as they used to be. Rodgers will get a hefty extension, to be sure, but as long as the Packers can give themselves “outs” in any future signing (i.e. mostly one or two year deals wherein cutting a player doesn’t leave any dead money on the cap) they should be able to navigate the free agency highways without paying major tolls.

Finally, can they? And this question isn’t coming from a “will they, won’t they” premise. It’s coming from whether the talent fits. Is there an Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware, T.J. Ward or Wes Welker floating around whom the Packers can sign and turn into appropriate value – value being the optimal word? There are some intriguing names out there, but big names don’t always mean big production.

What about you, Packers Wire readers? Whom should the Packers sign and why?