1. Mike (LW: 1)

What another great week for Mike. Once again he came through with a clutch immunity win to be safe from the vote, and at this point it’s hard to see when he might lose again. But just in case Mike does, he set himself up well to make it farther in the game. Mike used his idol brilliantly at tribal council. By acting like he was going to give it to Shirin, he forced the alliance of six to throw two votes at one of their own to counteract his and Shirin’s vote in case she played his idol. That the votes were against Dan was just what Mike needed, as Dan now has a prime reason to question his place in the alliance. Mike’s also in a fascinating position with his idol. It’s clear that the majority alliance wants him gone next vote, but because of the threat of the idol, the alliance must identify another person to vote for, or else they risk whoever Mike votes for going home. This, by definition, means they’re forced to turn on eachother, since no one is likely to agree to have votes cast their way. The potential fracturing of the majority alliance, combined with Dan’s insecurity and the fact that Mike has worked with Sierra and Rodney before, has me feeling pretty good about Mike’s chances next episode. And let’s not forget that now with Shirin on the jury, it looks like Mike may have four final tribal votes locked up were he to make it to the end.

2. Rodney (LW: 2)

The first thing I have to say about Rodney is that for someone who has constantly bragged about how big he is, he has not been able to win a challenge. The win vs. Mike would have been huge this week, but he just didn’t have enough stamina. Rodney is still in a decent position and shouldn’t be in danger of being voted out next week, unless he does something really stupid, which isn’t that crazy to imagine. He has become a little less obnoxious and is improving his chances of winning jury votes. His biggest problem is that he has always been a bit delusional about his standing in the game. He is definitely a leader of the alliance but definitely isn’t running the show the way he seems to think. Having said that, he’s in a great position to blindside a member of his new alliance, and it’s something he’s going to have to do if he wants to win. At this point though, I strongly believe there’s a ton of distance between Mike and him, so he’s going to have to get Mike voted out eventually if he wants to win.

3. Tyler (LW: 3)

The fact that Mike, Shirin, and Sierra all idenitified Tyler as being the biggest threat to win outside of Mike says a lot about his chances in the game. It was fun to watch him perfectly manipulate Dan during the boat ride, and he clearly has a better feel for the game than we may have previously thought. The only reason he’s not ranked ahead of Rodney is because he might be the most likely to go home next week. He doesn’t have an idol to protect himself, and we know that someone from the six is going home barring a huge mistake by Mike. Voting for Dan was a smart move to protect himself, but it might sway Dan back to Mike’s side. If he is able to make it to the final three, then he has a great chance of securing votes because he hasn’t pissed the members off the way that most of the other contestants have. We know Rodney thinks he running the game right now, but Tyler might be doing just that just in a more subtle way. He’s going to have a make a trademark move eventually, though, and soon.

4. Carolyn (LW: 4)

We saw more of Mama C this episode than we’re used to seeing, but it’s still not enough to suggest she has a better chance to win than anyone above her. The rest of the players are targeting Tyler as the biggest threat remaining other than Mike, which means Carolyn should stick around for at least a little while longer, especially because she has her idol. It will be interesting to see next week if Mama C finds out Tyler is being targeted – might she play the idol for him knowing he’s in trouble, or continue holding it for herself for later in the game? The knock on Mama C is that it doesn’t seem like she’s endearing herself to anyone but Tyler out there. She did not connect with any of the four jury members, and hasn’t made a big move yet that she could sell to jury members on the fence at final tribal. Perhaps that immunity idol is just what she needs to improve her position in the game and win her some strategy points among the jury. This week may also show if she can truly recruit and lead an alliance, as she’s merely joined alliances (no collars at the tribe swap, blue collars and then Rodney’s four at the merge) so far this game.

5. Dan (LW: 5)

Once again, Dan showed how obnoxious and just clueless he is. It started when he was being all nice to Shirin, but then turned around and said how much he thinks she sucks. And his adoption comment at tribal was just completely irrelvant and made him come across as an even bigger idiot. It was almost painful to watch him be manipulated by his supposed new alliance, and I couldn’t believe how easy it was. They completely convinced him that Mike was stupid for jumping the gun even though they all knew that Mike was 100% right to do what he did. Also, how could someone who says the things he does get so upset about Mike almost stopping him from reading that letter. We know someone from the six has to go home, and Dan is a prime candidate unless he actually does something smart for once. Tyler knowing about his double vote won’t help either, although I’m not convinced Dan will even use it to his advantage. Otherwise, he should be going home next week, especially when you consider that he was the person that Will and Tyler chose to vote for.

6. Sierra (LW: 7)

I like that the wheels are starting to turn in Sierra’s head. We saw her first inkling of strategy this season when she spoke with Rodney about needing to target Tyler. It really does seem like she’s willing to switch and vote out one of the biggest threats remaining, but she just doesn’t have anyone else to go with her. That could all change this week, as the two votes for Dan at tribal, combined with Mike having an idol, means there will be turmoil in the majority alliance. If Sierra wants to win this game, she needs to come out of the scrum on top and in a power position: perhaps with a new alliance that brings back the original four blue collars. Otherwise, she will continue floating in this game and won’t have a leg to stand on if she makes final tribal. Luckily she still has time to make a move, but it’s running out.

7. Will (LW: 8)

I’m sorry, but I don’t have much to say about Will anymore. He made those terrible comments to Shirin and has refused to apologize. He is nothing but a follower, and therefore, will never have the guts to executive any type of big move. He has absolutely zero chance of winning the game no matter who he goes to the final three with. He might be the worst at challenges ever and has done nothing but float around in the background. I’m not saying he’s getting voted out any time soon. He actually might have the best chance of making it to the final three because everyone knows he can’t win. Having said all that, he still has a vote every week, so unfortunately, he is going to play an important part in deciding the winner. Who needs Dan’s double vote when you have Will at your side.