In case you haven't heard, tomorrow is budget day in New Brunswick. Actually, you have probably already heard that, thanks to the Liberal communications machine.

Governments often tease out their thinking in the days and weeks leading up to the release of their budget. The Gallant Liberals have taken it to a whole new level, with several news conferences and press releases laying out different options and scenarios, often with dollar figures attached.

They say it's because this is the big budget of their mandate, the one that will implement all the tough cuts and tax hikes needed to pull the province out of a long-term pattern of deficit spending--and they want input from New Brunswickers.

Already, we know now that there will be "no major cuts" to health and education, based on that input. And all signs point to a two-point increase in the Harmonized Sales Tax.

Even so, several questions remain about what the budget will bring:

Does "no major cuts" mean no cuts at all?

Premier Brian Gallant revealed last month that there would be "no major cuts" to health, such as hospital closures--a recurring preoccupation of many people who took part in public consultations. But a government can keep all hospitals open and still make deep cuts to the services they provide. The Vitalité health authority, for example, has plans on the table for major bed closures, subject to government approval: is that cut too "major?" Can you call a building a "hospital" but close half the space and convert it to a long-term care home for seniors?

Premier Brian Gallant provided some hints of what New Brunswickers can expect in the coming budget in his state of the province speech on Thursday night. (CBC)

The 32 options

Cabinet minister Victor Boudreau acknowledged last week that a lot of the Liberal communications in January focused on "the six bigger ticket items in the report," including hospital closures, teacher cuts, the HST increase, and highway tolls. But Boudreau said "there are others outside of those six that certainly will be part of the budget."

Among the options the Liberals chose not to talk about, which ones will they choose? Privatizing highway maintenance? Privatizing school custodial services?

HST for all, or a credit for some?

The Liberals estimate raising the HST by two points would bring in $175-295 million a year. That's in the ballpark of the $250 million they say they need in new revenue. Everything they've said suggests this option is almost a sure thing.

Some New Brunswickers, including United Church Rev. Steve Berubé in Riverview, have called for measures to lessen the impact on low-income New Brunswickers, such as exempting certain products.

The Liberals said last month they were looking at a tax credit, which would allow poorer residents to get back some of the HST they pay. But that would reduce the potential revenue by about $100 million.

How much funding for the Education and New Economy Fund?

Gallant announced this fund in his state-of-the-province speech, and he made bold, sweeping commitments about what the fund will accomplish, including making post-secondary education accessible and affordable for "everyone."

That's a big promise, and Gallant didn't put a dollar figure on it. It remains to be seen how the province can afford it, and where the money will come from.

Boudreau said "no major cuts" in education, either, but will the Liberals slash teachers and schools so they can re-direct money in the existing budget to the new fund?

How close will the Liberals be to a balanced budget in the coming year?

They say all the decisions will be in this budget, but some of them may not be fully implemented this year. (An increase to the HST would take 120 days to implement, so the full estimated $295 million per year revenue wouldn't materialize in 2016-2017.)

The Liberals election platform promised a surplus in ordinary accounts by 2018-19 and overall by 2020-21, but those projections have already been thrown off, and the HST wasn't a part of the campaign math. The first Liberal budget last year didn't update those targets.

Roger Melanson, the provincial finance minister, says there's a process that needs to be followed when the HST is changed. (CBC)

The size of the projected surplus

If the Liberals do balance the budget someday, they'll face another decision: whether to run razor-thin surpluses that keep the overall debt at roughly the same amount, or big surpluses that actually pay off chunks of that debt--and reduce interest payments on it at the same time.

Big surpluses will require ongoing restraint rather than giving in to the temptation to spend. The 2016-17 budget brings us one year closer to the surplus on the horizon, and may tell us what the Liberals plan to do with it.