Welp, we made it to Week 3 before it felt like time to pencil in Alabama vs. Clemson in the National Championship yet again. Bama’s yet to face stress in a fourth quarter, while Clemson destroyed Louisville a week after suffocating Auburn. Oklahoma’s the only other team I could see putting in there right now, unless you wanted to get spicy.

Below, quick bowl projections on how all of this might play out in December, not on how it’d look if the season ended right now. Every week, I adjust a picks board of every game on the calendar, then count up wins and losses and see how the postseason would work with those records. It’s fun to update guesses each week!

The College Football Playoff

Championship (Atlanta): Alabama vs. Clemson

Sugar (New Orleans): Alabama vs. Wisconsin

Rose (Pasadena, CA): Clemson vs. Oklahoma

Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma are the obvious picks for any Playoff four right now. If you don’t have those three in there, you’re making a pretty bold prediction, and good luck to you.

The Big Ten and Pac-12 are the hard Power 5 leagues to pick, and there’s a good chance one will be the odd P5 out of the Playoff. Right now, I’m picking Wisconsin to ride its lighter schedule, compared to its Big Ten East competitors, and the Pac-12 to beat itself up.

The rest of the New Year’s Six

Peach (Atlanta): Georgia vs. Ohio State

Orange (Miami): Florida State vs. Penn State

Fiesta (Glendale, AZ): Washington vs. USF

Cotton (Arlington, TX): Oklahoma State vs. USC

This year, the Orange will take the top ACC team left over and the top Big Ten/SEC team left over.

I’m sticking with USF as the mid-major champion autobid, even though San Diego State just beat Stanford and Memphis just beat UCLA. USF’s schedule still sets up for an unbeaten run, while the other two have tougher roads, but it’s a close pick. As the committee showed by taking WMU last year, unbeaten against a weak schedule still tops a good record against a decent schedule.

The other games in this group will be made up of the committee’s top at-larges, arranged to give us at least one really big game.

Every other bowl game

Citrus (Orlando): Miami vs. Mississippi State

Outback (Tampa): Michigan vs. Tennessee

Liberty (Memphis): Kansas State vs. LSU

TaxSlayer (Jacksonville): Virginia Tech vs. Florida

Arizona (Tucson): Wyoming vs. Ohio

Music City (Nashville): Minnesota vs. Auburn

Sun (El Paso): NC State vs. Utah

Belk (Charlotte): Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina

Alamo (San Antonio): Texas vs. Oregon

Camping World (Orlando): Louisville vs. West Virginia

Military (Annapolis, Md.): Duke vs. Navy

Texas (Houston): TCU vs. Texas A&M

Pinstripe (New York City): Notre Dame vs. Maryland

Independence (Shreveport, La.): Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt

Cactus (Tempe, Ariz.): Temple vs. Colorado

Heart of Dallas: BYU vs. Cal

Quick Lane (Detroit): WMU vs. Northwestern

Holiday (San Diego): Iowa vs. UCLA

Foster Farms (Santa Clara, Calif.): Indiana vs. Stanford

Hawaii: SMU vs. Hawaii

Dollar General (Mobile, Ala.): Toledo vs. Troy

Armed Forces (Fort Worth): Army vs. Purdue

Birmingham: Memphis vs. Kentucky

Potato (Boise): NIU vs. Boise State

Bahamas: Southern Miss vs. Miami (OH)

St. Petersburg: UCF vs. FAU

Frisco (Texas): Houston vs. Utah State

Boca Raton: Tulsa vs. MTSU

Camellia (Montgomery, Ala.): CMU vs. Appalachian State

New Mexico (Albuquerque): WKU vs. Colorado State

Las Vegas: San Diego State vs. Washington State

Cure (Orlando): Cincinnati vs. EMU

New Orleans: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech

Your thoughts?