Developed at the University of Aberdeen, the state-of-the-art Rangeshifter tool was used to help researchers model the proposed reintroduction of the solitary wildcat in Scotland.

It’s believed that the Eurasian Lynx went extinct during the medieval period, and its proposed reintroduction in recent years has sparked heated debate on the matter.

Researchers used the model to identify the best location for reintroduction and demonstrated how this choice might impact population size and expansion over the next 100 years.

The team are confident that their model can be applied elsewhere and used to inform and support decision-making around the reintroduction of large carnivores worldwide.

With support from the University of Aberdeen, University of Stirling PhD researcher Tom Ovenden led work on the project as part of his Masters at Bangor University.

Ovenden said: “Reintroducing large carnivores is often complicated and expensive, meaning that getting things right the first time is extremely important. Therefore, advances in modelling approaches, as utilised during our study, are extremely valuable.

“Our research considered several proposed reintroduction sites, showing how these models can be used as a safe and relatively inexpensive way of assessing the suitability of reintroduction proposals and providing the evidence required to inform decision-making at an early stage.

“Recent advances in both ecological theory and modelling approaches have made the incorporation of individual species’ complex behaviours in novel environments more realistic. We applied this approach to the potential reintroduction of Eurasian lynx in Scotland – and demonstrated the power of this new, sophisticated model.

“Our research demonstrates the potential of this approach to be applied elsewhere to help improve reintroduction success in large carnivores, from the safety of a modelling environment.”

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Initially, Ovenden carried out a desk-based study to identify the current location and extent of suitable forest habitat for the lynx in Scotland.

He then conducted further research to ascertain the demographic and dispersal traits of the animal in other parts of Europe – this data provided the model with the required parameters.

Using this data, the team investigated the suitability of three release sites: the Scottish component of Kielder Forest in the Borders; Aberdeenshire; and the Kintyre Peninsula. The model was used to identify how the animal would establish a population, spread and colonise from each possible reintroduction site.

The model identified Kintyre Peninsula as the best location for the release, while it found that Scotland’s Central Belt would act as a barrier to colonisation between the Highlands and Southern Uplands providing evidence for two distinct habitat networks.

“This initial research is encouraging and suggests that Scotland is indeed ecologically suitable for the reintroduction of Eurasian lynx – but this suitability is highly dependent on where reintroduction takes place and more modelling work is required,” said Ovenden.

“Our research informs one aspect of a complex decision-making process that must involve a wide range of stakeholders and, as a result, it does not recommend whether we should, or should not, reintroduce Eurasian lynx to Scotland.

“We have established a solid foundation upon which more modelling can now be conducted, however, further research is required to assess other important issues – such as socio-economic factors and public attitudes – to enable informed, comprehensive decision-making.

“It is our hope that this tool will not only provide evidence to guide the current debate in Scotland, but can be used more widely in discussions around large carnivore reintroductions globally,” he concluded.

Professor Justin Travis from the University of Aberdeen commented: “It is fantastic to see our ecological software being used to inform conservation management in this way.

“We have previously been involved in collaborations where modelling has informed management of invasive species and has been used to help increase habitat connectivity but this is the first time it has been used to test alternative reintroduction strategies for a mammal.

“We next plan to apply this same method in the context of ongoing work on reintroduction programmes for Giant Anteaters and Jaguars in Argentina.”

Jo Pike, Director of Public Affairs at the Scottish Wildlife Trust, said: “Returning the lynx to our landscape as a top predator could help restore the health of Scotland’s natural ecosystems.

“Any future reintroduction would have to be carefully planned, widely consulted on, and rigorously assessed against national and international guidelines.

“This research is a useful contribution to the evidence base that needs to be developed over the coming years.”

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