Taxes on traditional cigarettes may be driving smokers to try vaping.

A $1 tax increase on traditional cigarettes reduces cigarette use by 1.9% overall and by 3.5% for daily smokers, says a new study distributed by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). It also increased vaping rates by 9.7%.

The study determined these results by cross-referencing dates of state cigarette excise tax changes with data from Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) surveys and National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) between 2011 and 2017.

The BRFSS polls more than 400,000 U.S. adults each year, and the NHIS surveys about 33,000. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention oversees both of these surveys.

“ E-cigarettes aren’t subject to traditional state and federal cigarette excise taxes because their use doesn’t lead to the inhalation of tar. ”

Cigarette taxes also increased e-cigarette use, according to the study, which was co-authored by researchers from Georgia State University, Temple University, and the University of Kentucky.

These results suggest some smokers are making the switch from traditional cigarettes to e-cigarettes as taxes on traditional cigarettes rise. “We provide the first evidence on the effects of traditional cigarette taxes on traditional cigarette use and e-cigarette use in a time period when e-cigarettes were widely available in tobacco markets,” the researchers wrote in the study paper.

Every state in the country taxes cigarettes, with the average tax on a pack of 20 cigarettes sitting at $1.81 and some taxes — like the one in New York state — reaching as high as $4.35. These are on top of the $1.01 federal cigarette tax. A pack of cigarettes in New York City now starts at $13.

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This result supports previous research showing the effectiveness of tobacco taxation in reducing traditional smoking. Other research indicates that adding graphic warning labels to cigarette packs and establishing smoke-free workplaces are even more effective methods of reducing smoking.

“ Today, nine states, Washington, D.C., and a number of localities have implemented specific taxes on vaping products. ”

Similar research this year indicated that “sugar taxes” can reduce the amount of junk food people buy.

Some states have started taxing vaping products like e-cigarettes. These products have been sold in gas stations, smoke shops, and convenience stores since 2007, according to the Tax Foundation. But they aren’t subject to traditional state and federal cigarette excise taxes because their use doesn’t lead to the inhalation of tar.

Today, nine states, Washington, D.C., and a number of localities have implemented specific taxes on vaping products.

“There are a number of reasons why policymakers are taxing these products. The first innocuous motive is bringing a product similar to cigarettes into the tax base. And then policymakers are also interested in reducing the number of people who start smoking by taxing vaping products,” Michael Lucci, vice president of state projects at the Tax Foundation, a think tank that studies U.S. tax policy, told MarketWatch. Some research has shown that vaping leads teens to try traditional tobacco cigarettes.

Lawmakers are especially concerned about the rise of vaping among young people in middle school and high school. The percentage of high school students using e-cigarettes nearly doubled between 2017 and 2018, jumping from 11.7% to 20.8%, according to the FDA.

“Any tax of significant value is going to reduce demand for that product,” Lucci said.

Nicotine vapes are extremely popular with young people: Underage teens are 16 times more likely to use e-cigarette JUUL than older groups, a study published last year by the anti-tobacco lobbying group Truth Initiative found.

Studies have shown e-cigarettes are safer than traditional cigarettes. But vaping is not harmless, according to Robin Koval, chief executive officer of the Truth Initiative. “We do not fully know the health impact, and we should not be conducting an experiment on our children,” she told MarketWatch last year.

“ The percentage of high school students using e-cigarettes nearly doubled between 2017 and 2018, from 11.7% to 20.8%, according to the FDA. ”

The FDA has previously found that e-cigarettes vary widely in reliability and quality, and didn’t always do what they said on the package.

Despite the reduction in e-cigarette use that vaping taxes appears to trigger, whether these taxes are good policy from a public health standpoint is a more complicated question.

“People are less likely to respond to cigarette taxes when an e-cigarette tax is introduced,” Michael Pesko, an economics professor at Georgia State University and one of the lead researchers on the NBER study, told MarketWatch. The study suggests people may be less likely to try switching from traditional cigarettes to e-cigarettes in the face of a tax on both types of products.

“Traditional cigarette taxes appear to be less effective — in terms of reducing smoking — when a locality has also adopted an e-cigarette tax,” the researchers wrote.

E-cigarettes have been shown to be 95% less harmful than tobacco cigarettes, according to Public Health England.

Vaping is also generally cheaper than smoking.

“There’s not a consensus right now on the best approach to taxing e-cigarettes,” Lucci said. “But we understand the merits of having a lower rate on these products than traditional cigarettes.”

Still, he predicts more states will begin taxing vaping products soon.

San Francisco made headlines last week after its board of supervisors banned the sale of e-cigarettes in the city. Some worry policies like this will keep smokers on cigarettes for longer and slow down efforts to reduce tobacco use.