If history is any example, among this year’s short list contenders, Switzerland has the best chance of winning. Of the films up this year:

Switzerland has won 2 in 5 times it has been nominated (40% of the time)

Denmark has won 3 in 8 times it has been nominated (37.5% of the time)

Austria has won 1 in 3 times it has been nominated (33% of the time)

France has won 9 in 36 times it has been nominated (25% of the time)

Canada has won 1 in 6 times it has been nominated (16% of the time)

This year would mark the first nominations for Chile and Romania, but that doesn’t mean the odds are against them — Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union, Algeria, Ivory Coast, and Bosnia & Herzegovina all won the first time they were nominated. Eleven percent of winning films have been first-time nominees.

Iceland is 0 for 1 at the Academy Awards — but at least that’s better than poor Norway, which is Oscar's biggest loser, having won 0 in 4.