With this blog’s maiden post, I present you with the ever-growing model and methods that I’ve developed and continue to build upon regarding MMA prediction and fight analysis. Along with data sheets to analyze for every fight, I will be including constantly updated betting odds. Your thoughts and additions are beyond welcome. I would love to build this as a team and watch it grow in collaboration.Thank you for visiting.

Now for the reason you’re here, the fights:

This coming Saturday, July 25th, brings a stacked 12-fight event featuring the long anticipated rematch of T.J. Dillashaw(-220) and Renan Barão(+180) for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. The card will be broadcasted on FOX, with the early prelims available on UFC Fight Pass. Prefacing the bantamweight battle are two technical wars in the lightweight and woman’s bantamweight divisions:

“The Irish Dragon” Paul Felder (+105) and Brazilian standout Edson Barboza (-130) (double late-replacements for the original match-up of Anthony Pettis vs. Myles Jury) will both bring a methodical violence into this potentially unintended Fight-of-the-Night candidate.

and Brazilian standout Edson Barboza (double late-replacements for the original match-up of Anthony Pettis vs. Myles Jury) will both bring a methodical violence into this potentially unintended Fight-of-the-Night candidate. The Co-Main Event sees a determined ex-title challenger in Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (-190) facing a proven-unshakeable prospect in Jessica “Evil” Eye (+165) .

The rest of the card’s sure-to-impress fights include:

Joe Lauzon (-250) vs. Takanori Gomi (+210)

vs. Takanori Gomi Tom Lawlor (+185) vs. Gian Villante (-225)

vs. Gian Villante Jim Miller (-135) vs. Danny Castillo (+115)

vs. Danny Castillo Ben Saunders (-105) vs. Kenny Robertson (-115)

vs. Kenny Robertson Eddie Wineland (-140) vs. Bryan Caraway (+120)

vs. Bryan Caraway Daron Cruickshank (-150) vs. James Krause (+130)

vs. James Krause Ramsey Nijem (-130) vs. Andrew Holbrook (+110)

vs. Andrew Holbrook Jessamyn Duke (+155) vs. Elizabeth Phillips (-175)

vs. Elizabeth Phillips Zak Cummings (-250) vs. Dominique Steele (+210)

Before beginning any analysis, I compile the basic performance data of each fighter into a more approachable form. The following chart shows the number of times each fighter on the card has finished or been finished by their opponent, as well as the respective round the fight ended in and the manner in which it ended (KO/TKO/Sub). On the far right side of the chart are the results of each fighter’s last 3 performances:

The two most important elements to focus on are:

The comparison between both fighter’s finishing/finished rates. Both fighters finishing multiple fights in multiple rounds vs. both of them losing inside the distance multiple times often correlates with the fight ending inside the distance. The best examples of this on Saturday’s card are: Lauzon/Gom i = A combined 37 1st/2nd round finishes, with both fighters losing inside the distance 7 times. Wineland/Caraway = A combined 32 1st/2nd round finishes with 10 combined KO/Sub losses. Cruickshank/Krause = A combined 27 1st/2nd round finishes with 7 combined KO/Sub losses. This also presents potential for Tate/Eye, Villante/Lawlor , and Miller/Castillo to end inside the distance. The results of and occurrence of finishes in both fighters last three fights. The likelihood of a finish is thoroughly increased if there are at least 3/6 finishes in the combined sum of both fighter’s last 3 fights. Occasionally, you can also determine fights that will be finished inside the distance if both fighters haven’t been finished many times but have a combined amount of 4/6, 5/6 or 6/6 finishes in their last three fights. This is a strong reason I believe Barao/Dillashaw is going to end inside the distance having 5/6 finishes in their last three fights.

From there, predicting not just who would win or lose, but rather who would be more likely to specifically finish the other or win a decision becomes clearer. These stats can also be used to determine the over/under on fights (Over = Fight ends after a set # of rounds or goes to decision. Under = Fight ends before designated # of rounds.)

We can then make some assertions and predictions based on previous knowledge of the fighters and the interesting comparisons derived from the data. Together, these help to piece together the matchmaker’s puzzle. I only label it as a puzzle because the goal of the matchmaker is to concoct the most exciting, marketable, and practical/beneficial (financially or otherwise) match-ups that sit on the line odds wise and could easily end in favour of either fighter. My next post will discuss how to better predict if the matchmaker intended a finish or a decision based on the viewing platform the card will be broadcast on.

To further aid in prediction, I’ve arranged another chart compiling a detailed focus on Significant Strikes, Take-downs, and Submission attempts. Alongside each fighter’s name will also be each fighter’s dominant stance; whether that be Orthodox(Odx), South-Paw(Sp), or Switch/both(Sw).

The datasheet is broken down as such:

Significant Striking Offense/Defense

# of Significant Strikes landed per minute [SST Landed]

Significant Striking accuracy % [SAccu. %]

# of Significant Strikes absorbed per minute [Abs. per Min]

Significant Strike Defense % (the % of opponents strikes that did not land) [Def. %]

Take-down Offense/Defense

Average take-downs landed per 15 minutes [Td Landed]

Take-down Accuracy % [TAccu. %]

Take-down Defense % (the % of opponents TD attempts avoided per 15-minute fight) [TDDAvg.]

Average # of Submissions attempted per 15 minutes [SubAtt.]

This chart can reveal large disparities between the technical skill of fighters that would otherwise go overlooked and unnoticed. Two examples of such differences are seen in:

Tate and Eye’s number of significant strikes landed per minute. Tate = 1.85 sig. strikes landed per minute Eye = 5.26 sig. strikes landed per minute

Lawlor and Villante’s number of significant strikes absorbed per minute. Lawlor = 1.93 sig. stirkes absorbed per minute Villante = 5.91 sig. strikes absorbed per minute



Large contrasts like this can be the determining factor in who wins a fight, as well as in our ability to pick the underdog more consistently.

Skim through these charts and let me know your thoughts. This format is going to be utilized as the general layout for all events covered in the future, and I will be updating this post as new ideas, odds and analysis arise.

Good luck and remember,

BE SMART, BET SMART.