Wild swings in income, surprise expenses, scraping by from paycheck to paycheck with no cushion to speak of — that’s how poor people live, right? Not so: This precarious existence seems to be the economic fate of most Americans today. A new report from JPMorgan Chase’s research arm examined the deposit and spending patterns of 100,000 of its 27 million accounts during 2013 and 2014. It found that almost all the customers in the sample experienced changes in income and spending of 5 percent or more a month — not a tremendous fluctuation by any measure. But over the course of the year, 26 percent experienced income changes of 30 percent or more —10 percent suffered declines, while16 enjoyed increases. It’s not surprising that more people experienced an increase than a decline: The economy was expanding during the years studied, and added 5.5 million jobs. But the fact that so many households also took a large hit to their incomes during supposedly good times tells us that the so-called recovery is an anemic one, and that many Americans won’t be surprised by the Commerce Department’s report that the U.S. economy actually contracted 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015. Even more surprising is that there was little variation in income and spending volatility by income level. The richest fifth of account holders actually showed more variation than poorer ones.

Sticky optimism

Income and consumption changes didn’t move in tandem, either. Just 28 percent of the survey subjects (or “responders”) spent more money when they had more, and less when they had less. These responders were more likely than the general population to be in the bottom quintile, to have maxed out their credit cards and to be on a fixed income, usually social security or pensions. A third of the sample were labeled “sticky optimists,” meaning that increases in their consumption exceeded real income increases by 10 percentage points or more. Their consumption increased even when their income fell. These optimists tended to be higher earners, though their aggressive consumption can’t be sustainable over the longer term for those who aren’t centimillionaires with no concern for their heirs. The largest share of account holders, 39 percent, were “sticky pessimists”: When their income rose, their spending didn’t keep pace with their raises, and they cut back when their income dropped. Many analysts have been wondering why retail spending has been so weak despite improvements in the job market. This sticky pessimism could be an explanation — memories of the Great Recession are still alive, making people act more prudently than the overspending American of cliche.

Almost all Americans, save for the very richest, are just a few paychecks away from penury.

For a large minority of the sample, 39 percent, income and consumption changes between 2013 and 2014 moved in opposite directions. A whopping 60 percent of the sample showed average monthly changes in consumption of greater than 30 percent. Together, these findings suggest that a large share of the population (a share to which I belong, I have to admit) doesn’t have a monthly budget, with whim or necessity driving spending rather than something like a plan.

Loose fit