VANCOUVER—Though British Columbia should be fertile ground for the Liberals to grow support ahead of October’s general election, the party’s biggest asset in 2015 is now its biggest liability: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

That’s according to Martyn Brown, a former BC Liberal — a provincial party that has no ties to the federal one and is often aligned with small “c” conservative values — who was chief of staff for the province’s premier during the 2000s.

“B.C. is critical to the Liberals’ fortunes, as their strength in Quebec seems to be waning and in Atlantic Canada they’re grossly under attack. They have to look for where they can gain seats,” Brown said in an interview.

“As long as Trudeau is their leader, the party is bound to suffer big time.”

Brown’s comments follow a new Research Co. poll released on Tuesday that found a majority of British Columbians believe a new party leader would be better. A third of B.C. residents who voted for the Liberals in 2015 also believe a different party leader would do things better in Ottawa than Trudeau.

And that animosity toward Canada’s current prime minister is pervasive across the province, though strongest outside of the Metro Vancouver region, said Mario Canseco, president of Research Co.

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Meanwhile, half of British Columbians think a different party is needed to lead in Ottawa. Notably, a majority of all age groups polled — from millennials to boomers and beyond — felt that way, as well as a quarter of 2015 Liberal voters.

“That’s the danger the Liberals are facing,” Canseco said. “This is more worrisome in urban areas where you can see people gravitate more to the NDP, which places a lot of seats in jeopardy.”

Prior to 2015, the Liberal party held two seats in British Columbia. But after “Trudeaumania” took the country, the Liberals went from third place in the House of Commons to holding a majority government. Now, they hold 17 seats in B.C.

Canseco questioned whether they could sustain that momentum.

And while there wasn’t much of a gender gap in 2015, men are now more likely to be critical and dissatisfied with the Liberals.

Canseco is closely following the millennial reaction to Trudeau, as the previous election saw a significant spike in the youth vote. For Canseco, the big question ahead of the fall election will be exactly where those votes go.

“It’s no longer the idea of Trudeau as a great unifier, and if they find a shinier object out there, will they support it?” he said. “If you’re disenchanted because of environmental decisions, or maybe electoral reform, or the SNC-Lavalin affair, do you stay home or vote Green or NDP?”

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Poll results were based on an online study from March 8 to 10 among 800 adults in B.C., with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Left-leaning progressives offended by the SNC-Lavalin affair may be tempted to vote for the NDP or Greens, Brown said, while centre-right leaning and “swing Liberals” will now be swayed to vote Conservative.

Disenchantment with Trudeau — particularly in B.C. — has risen because he has “failed” on so many files, according to Brown, such as proportional representation, balancing the budget, reconciliation and the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline.

“(All that has) dramatically reduced his party’s fortunes in Greater Vancouver on progressive, environmentally conscious voters,” he said. “On so many files, he’s proven himself to be the opposite of what he purports to be.”

Braeden Caley, a Liberal party spokesperson, says Trudeau and the Liberals are focused on a strong plan for British Columbians “to build more affordable housing, invest in better roads and transit, grow the economy and protect a healthier environment for our kids and grandkids.”

A decline in support for the Liberals is exaggerated, according to Caley. He says grassroots support for the party continues to grow.

“More than 15,000 British Columbians have singed up as new Liberals in the past two years alone,” he said in an email. “The Liberal party is also continuing to be approached by a variety of talented community leaders interested in becoming Team Trudeau candidates throughout British Columbia, building on the strong growth that we’ve seen in our B.C. team and caucus in recent years.”

Brown has been publicly calling for Trudeau to step down to improve the Liberal party’s chances in October, amid the ongoing SNC-Lavalin affair which he said has “dramatically undercut” Trudeau’s personal brand of having the ethical high-ground.

He predicts an RCMP probe on the matter in the near future and told the Star the Liberal party will only have a chance in October if they find a new leader. Brown said that would be in their best “political self-interest,” especially with the support of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott.

“If they went into an election with those two women behind them saying we’re cleaning up our act and we mean it,” Brown said, “it would suddenly turn the table and make the new Liberal leader potentially the voice of a new ethical government instead of the opposite.”

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