We may have already passed the minimum in arctic sea ice extent for 2010, according to data from JAXA. The minimum this year (on Sept. 10) was 4,952,813 km^2.



That’s pretty close to my prediction of 4.78 million km^2, based on a simple trend analysis of September extent since the beginning of satellite observations. I was correct that 2010 came in 3rd-lowest overall, less than the value observed in 2009. Predictions that this year’s extent would be higher than 2009’s were nothing more than wishful thinking by those who want to deny the reality of global warming.

Here’s the past data, together with a quadratic trend (red line), my prediction (red dot), and the observed minimum (black “x”):

Anyone who isn’t blind can see that this year’s minimum extent falls very close to the existing trend. In fact let’s be very clear: this year showed a continuation of the existing trend. And the existing trend is: death spiral.

Anyone who calls it a “recovery” is lying, either to himself or to you, and is not to be trusted about matters relating to global warming.