Written by Jake Robinson

The San Antonio Spurs have had one of the longest dynasties in sports history. Since the drafting of all-time great Tim Duncan in 1997, the Spurs have won 5 NBA Championships (’99 / ’03 / ’05 / ’07 / ’14) and have made the playoffs every single year. A major reason the Spurs have had such continued success has been their strong core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. Duncan was the #1 overall pick in the 1997 draft out of Wake Forest where he was a two-time All-American. Neither Parker nor Ginobili were strong prospects coming into the NBA, and neither played college basketball. Parker was drafted 28th in 2001 out of France, and Ginobili was drafted 57th in 2002 out of Argentina. Duncan has certainly been the most important and best player throughout the Spurs dynasty, but there’s a debate to be had as to whom has been the 2nd most valuable Spur.

There are many ways to evaluate a player’s value to his team. One of the simplest and most common ways is to look at typical box score statistics, like points/rebounds/assists per game, FG%, and 3PT%. Here’s how Parker and Ginobili compare in their career box score stats (along with some accolades):

PPG RPG APG FG% 3PT% Games All-NBA Teams All-Star Games Parker 16.6 2.9 5.9 49.4 32.7 1080 4 6 Ginobili 14.0 3.0 3.7 45.0 36.9 923 2 2

Looking at the stats comparison, Parker edges Ginobili in every single category except 3PT%. Parker has been selected to an All-NBA team 2 more time than Ginobili, and the All-NBA teams are usually right when selecting the best players each season. All-Star selections do matter, but they need to be taken with a grain of salt because they don’t take into account the 2nd half of the season or the playoffs (or are based on popularity, but neither has ever been an All-Star starter). Anyone who only considered the statistics shown above would conclude Parker has been the more valuable player, at least in the regular season. The next logical step in determining whom has been more valuable would be to consider how each has performed in the playoffs. Here are their career PLAYOFF averages (prior to this season):

PPG RPG APG FG% 3PT% MPG Games Parker 18.6 3.0 5.2 46.1 30.1 35.5 203 Ginobili 15.1 4.3 4.0 43.4 36.2 29.3 187

The playoff stats still tend to favor Parker. However, if you look at more advanced stats, both in the regular season and postseason, there is a much different story. Parentheses indicate each player’s best season.

VORP BPM Win Shares Playoff BPM Playoff VORP PER Playoff PER Parker 27.5 (3.1) 1.1 (3.1) 105.9 (9.6) 0.0 (8.4) 3.7 (0.9) 18.7 (23.4) 16.9 (29.3) Ginobili 45.5 (5.9) 5.4 (8.1) 101.2 (11.1) 5.4 (8.7) 10.3 (2.1) 20.9 (24.1) 19.8 (24.8)

VORP = Value Over Replacement Player

BPM = Box Plus / Minus

Win Shares = Estimate of Wins Attributed to a Player

PER = Player Efficiency Rating

Every advanced statistic, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, is either a wash (Win Shares) or favors Ginobili. None of Parker’s best season stats exceed Ginobili’s best season stats (except in terms of playoff PER, but the year Parker had a 29.3 PER he only played 5 games). Parker’s best year in terms of Net Rating is still lower than Ginobili’s career Net Rating. The combination of all these advanced statistics shows Ginobili has been the more efficient and valuable player for the Spurs, and it’s really not even close. The question that remains is why are Ginobili’s advanced stats so much better than Parker’s?

The first thing to look at is defense. Box score statistics don’t really take defense into account. Rebounds, blocks, and steals are all aspects of defensive skill, but they don’t necessarily correlate to the strength of a defender. Defensive rating, which is an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions, is a better measure for looking at a defender’s value, and isolates an individual player’s defensive value rather than the skill of a team’s defense. Ginobili’s career defensive rating of 100.0 is 5th best among active players and is 40th best ever. That means that Ginobili has been one of the best players in NBA history at contesting shot attempts, forcing players into bad shots, and forcing turnovers (even if he doesn’t get a steal or block).

Box Plus / Minus measures how many points better/worse a player is over an average player over 100 possessions. Ginobili strongly edges Parker in BPM in both the regular season and the playoffs. According to BPM, Parker has actually been exactly a league average player over the course of his playoffs career, while Ginobili has been one of the league’s best in the regular season and playoffs (>5 is very good).

Parker and Ginobili have both been supremely important to the Spurs’ success over the course of the past 14 years. Both should be Hall-of-Famers. Basic statistics and accolades favor Parker as the better player, but any advanced statistic shows that Ginobili not only has been more valuable than Parker, but he has also been one of the more valuable players in the history of the NBA.

*All statistics were taken from basketballreference.com

Correction: I previously put 63.5 win shares for Tony Parker. Those are his offensive win shares. He has 105.9 total career win shares.