

After simulating the Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 campaign, Dan Szymborski has happened upon a scenario in which Pittsburgh could be division champs. Preliminary? Definitely. A long shot? Sure. But all 30 teams in baseball are currently 0-0, and until the games say otherwise, every team has a chance.

On the day Jayson Stark reveals his NL Central report cards, here's how Pittsburgh could end up on top in 2011:

Sept. 29, 2011

PITTSBURGH -- With the Pirates' 7-5 win over the Milwaukee Brewers last night and the Cincinnati Reds losing an afternoon game against the New York Mets, Pittsburgh won the NL Central and averted a possible play-in game Sept. 29. While an 85-77 season makes the Pirates one of the weakest divisional winners in history, it represents an impressive comeback for a team that finished 57-105 in 2010 and looked so lost at times that it would have problems competing in the International League.

Despite expectations, the Pirates did pull the upset, and for the second straight season an NL team came out of nowhere to become a contender. Last year, the San Diego Padres pulled off the same feat, defying the analysts to take the world champion San Francisco Giants to the last weekend of the season. Luckily for the Pirates, nobody in the Central has a rotation as good as the Giants did.

So, how did they pull it off? And should we have seen it coming?