Michael Howard, the former Tory leader, is leaning into an intercom outside an apartment block in the seaside town of Broadstairs. "I think your analysis is absolutely correct – we're the only people with any chance of beating Mr Farage," he says down the microphone in his familiar clipped accent.

The man inside the building is not a Tory supporter. But he's been tracking the odds for months and is, Howard tells us afterwards, "going to vote Conservative for the first time in his life to keep Farage out".