Hong Kong (CNN Business) Japan's economy is flirting with recession, and the novel coronavirus could push it over the edge.

The world's third-largest economy shrank 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to a government estimate released Monday . The decline from the third quarter is the biggest contraction since 2014.

The drop was even more severe — a 6.3% plunge — when measured as an annualized rate.

The fact that growth slowed in the three months to December wasn't a surprise. Analysts had been expecting as much as the country absorbed a sales tax hike and grappled with the aftermath of Typhoon Hagibis, a powerful storm that hit the country last fall

But Monday's data was worse than the 0.9% quarter-on-quarter drop that analysts polled by Reuters predicted. And the spread of the coronavirus now threatens to stamp out hopes for a recovery in the first quarter.