The potential upside can be large for candidates who do not win – whether it’s to advance a greater profile or a signature issue or agenda

Not in it to win it: the dirty little secret of the Democrats' 2020 battle

Political scientists are quick to point out two reasons why a record number of candidates is running for president on the Democratic side in 2020.

One: the Republican president, Donald Trump, is vulnerable with a low-40s approval rating, so the Democratic nominee has a good shot at winning the White House.

Two: there’s no bigfoot candidate this time around – no incumbent, no Hillary Clinton – to dissuade other potential candidates from running.

Those conditions have lured 15 major candidates so far into the race for the Democratic nomination, with as many as half a dozen more potentially getting in, including former vice-president Joe Biden, who has yet to officially declare. The previous record for major candidates in a presidential primary field was 17, on the Republican side in 2016.

But analysts also nod to a third factor inflating the gigantic 2020 Democratic field, a not-quite-dirty little secret about presidential politics.

The fact is, not all of the people running for president are actually running for president.

“There is almost always at least a few candidates in these kinds of fields that are either there to push an issue agenda, or these are candidates who are interested in building their name recognition, building their stature and status within the party,” said John Sides, professor of political science at George Washington University and editor-in-chief of The Monkey Cage politics analysis site.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Going by the polls Beto O’Rourke looks like a contender who is in it to win. Photograph: José Luis Magaña/AP

“I would assume that most candidates probably overestimate their chances of winning, but that doesn’t mean that they think it’s likely. ”

There are many reasons not to run for president, as Trump himself pointed out constantly on the campaign trail in 2016, emphasizing the supposed scale of his self-sacrifice. The miles, the schedule, the food, the costs, the staff, the media, the risk of scandal, the risk of rejection, the dry cleaning, the selfie requests.

But the potential upside, even for candidates who do not win, can be large. For some candidates, there’s money in it. Ask Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor whose failed 2008 run netted him a Fox TV show, tripled his speaking fees and made his books bestsellers. The former House speaker Newt Gingrich ran what looked like a for-profit campaign in 2012, using campaign events to sell books.

Other candidates run to advance a signature issue or agenda. Ron Paul, the former Texas congressman, caught fire in 2008 with demands for small government and non-intervention overseas. Ralph Nader’s anti-corporate message sparked similar grassroots enthusiasm in 2000, and in 2016 Bernie Sanders went from being a protest candidate to swiping 23 primary contests from Hillary Clinton and emerging as a major force in national politics.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Photograph: Charlie Neibergall/AP

For others, the promise might be a greater profile, or a shot at a cabinet slot, or even a place on the party’s general-election ticket. The Reagan-Bush (1980), Kerry-Edwards (2004) and Obama-Biden (2008) tickets all sprang from primary rivalries. Herman Cain, the former restaurant executive who blazed across the sky as a Republican candidate in 2012, was mooted recently for a spot on the Federal Reserve board.

“You always do get a few candidates who, it’s kind of hard to see their path forward, and it can be harder to know exactly what their motivations are,” said Erik Tillman, a political scientist at DePaul University in Chicago. “Some people might be angling for something like a cabinet position or a running mate position – that would be a possibility. In other cases, there certainly are cases where candidates may run more because they have a particular issue or set of issues they want to push the debates.”

But what does the current crop of candidates want? Teasing out motives is a tricky business, and in the age of Trump, writing off any candidate as unelectable would seem foolish. But polls, fundraising numbers and endorsements indicate a clear hierarchy of strength for the Democratic candidates, suggesting that while a majority are in it to win it, others might settle for less.

Going by the polls, the top tier comprises Biden, assuming he runs, followed by Sanders. Then there’s a tier that includes mayor Pete Buttigieg, senator Kamala Harris, congressman Beto O’Rourke, and senator Elizabeth Warren. Going by total individual donors gives roughly the same picture. With no crystal ball telling what alliances might form in the future, each of those candidates looks like a contender in it for him- or herself.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Presidential hopeful Senator Bernie Sanders greets supporters after a campaign rally on Sunday in Pittsburgh. Photograph: Keith Srakocic/AP

Behind the front group are candidates who have shown flash in fundraising or endorsements, and who seem to have a credible path to the presidency. Senators Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker fit the bill, having raised about $5m each so far and showing strength in the early race for party endorsements. Eyes are on Julián Castro, the former housing and urban development secretary, and senator Kirsten Gillibrand to demonstrate similar national cachet.

Where is the line drawn that separates viable candidates from those whose shots look longer? Former Colorado governor John Hickenlooper has yet to build national momentum. The path to the White House for a trio of candidates from the House of Representatives – Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney and Tim Ryan – appears indirect, at best. The same is true for Wayne Messam, a small city mayor from Florida.

There are four candidates who have staked out ground as single-issue candidates in 2020. Washington governor Jay Inslee says he is the “only candidate who will make defeating climate change our nation’s number one priority”. California congressman Eric Swalwell is running on gun control, former Alaska senator (and frequent presidential candidate) Mike Gravel is running to shake up the debates, and businessman Andrew Yang is running to combat the perils of automation.

Exploring an independent run is Howard Schultz, the former Starbucks CEO, as an errant-rich-guy candidate after the model of Ross Perot and Steve Forbes (not to mention Trump).

While running for president without running for president might seem to fall short of certain ideals about the call to service and the dignity of the office, Sides said it was “perfectly rational” for some candidates to jump in the race without necessarily intending to win.

“Unless you’re going to fall on your face, or embarrass yourself, or have a bunch of scandals revealed because of the additional scrutiny you’re getting,” he said, “then it could easily be the case that you’ll emerge from the primaries with more of a platform than you used to have”.