Alabama Senate result could hinge on black turnout

GREENSBORO — Val Goodson stepped to the podium Sunday evening and addressed 130 people, sitting on chairs wrapped in red, white and blue cloth within the gray confines of the Greensboro Recreation Center. It was an annual dinner for two predominantly African-American Democratic groups, where Democratic Senate nominee Doug Jones would speak later in the evening. The crowd was largely, though not exclusively African-American.

“Happy holidays,” she said. “And Doug Jones for U.S. Senate.”

There was a decent amount of applause.

“I said, ‘Doug Jones for U.S. Senate,’” Goodson repeated. More and stronger applause.

“I’m going to give you a chance to say it with me,” Goodson, a Democratic activist, said. “Doug Jones for U.S. Senate.” The crowd repeated and applauded.

It’s that kind of motivation the Democratic nominee needs in the black community to have any chance of winning on Dec. 12. African-Americans make up roughly a quarter of the population of Alabama, and that’s generally a good baseline to consider black election turnout, said Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster with the Montgomery-based firm of Anzalone Liszt Grove.

“I’m a believer Jones can make it happen at 25 percent,” he said. “Moore just may be fundamentally mortally wounded among the Alabama electorate, even among voters who default to Republicans. Certainly, Jones at 27, 28, 29 percent — every point of additional African-American turnout is valuable.”

David Mowery, a Montgomery-based consultant who has worked on Democratic and Republican campaigns, agreed that a 25 percent African-American turnout was essential for the Democrat.

“Twenty-five, he has a chance,” he said. “Thirty, he has a better chance. It depends on who comes out to vote.”

A poll released by Louisiana-based JMC on Wednesday showed Republican Senate nominee Roy Moore leading Jones 48 to 43 percent. That result came from a sample that was 23 percent African-American.

More: The fights of his life: Doug Jones' journey from Fairfield to the U.S. Senate race

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The Democratic campaign has been trying to reach those voters. Jones visited six black churches in Jefferson County Sunday before traveling to Hale County and has visited Montgomery County and other areas in the Black Belt several times in his campaign.

Still, it’s hard to say where African-American turnout might be on Dec. 12. At Alabama State University on Wednesday morning, students had a wide range of reactions to the race, ranging from indifference to strong personal interest, but there was a general sense that the U.S. Senate race was not on people’s minds. Two students said they were more aware of the local state Senate race; former ASU vice president John Knight is one of the candidates.

“At this point, it’s really under the radar,” said Devante Williams, a freshman who has already cast an absentee ballot for Jones. “I haven’t heard a lot about it.”

Turnout in the Aug. 15 election — where both Democrats and Republicans held primaries — was an abysmal 17.95 percent statewide. Moore alone got nearly as many votes (164,524) as were cast for all candidates in the Democratic primary (165,006).

Turnout was higher (an average 18.23 percent) in the 20 counties with African-American populations of 40 percent or higher, though there were sharp variations: Smaller rural counties, like Greene and Sumter, saw 23 and 26 percent turnout, respectively. Turnout was lower in Jefferson County (19 percent) and Montgomery County (17 percent), two areas where Jones needs major turnout to succeed. Janet May, director of the Montgomery County Democratic Conference, said her group had canvassed black voters since August.

"It’s going to be incumbent on groups like ours to speak directly to the African-American community and understand the importance of this election," she said. "There’s only so much (Jones) can do, and we've got to do what we’ve been good at doing, and that’s reaching out to our folks."

Moore faces several allegations of improper conduct with women, most dating from when he was a thirty-something assistant district attorney in Etowah County from 1977 to 1982. The allegations range from pursuit of relationships with teenagers to unwanted attention to abuse and sexual assault. Moore denies the allegations; the women have stuck to their stories, and two have said they will testify under oath to them.

Black voters interviewed over the week generally said the allegations concerned them, but that they more or less left their support for Jones unaffected. May said voters she speaks with talk more “about the need to get out and vote.”

“We all know there is some life to this story,” she said. “It doesn’t mean anything. This man could still win if we don’t vote.”

Floyd Watkins, a retired catfish farmer who attended the Greensboro event, said the allegations were triggering more conversations. “It makes us more aware of the race,” he said.

Khiry Mosley, a junior at Alabama State University majoring in criminal justice, said Wednesday he had kept up with the race and the allegations Moore faces.

“The only thing it has done is make me do a little more research,” he said.

What most voters wanted to hear from Jones was talk about traditional Democratic issues, such as health care and economic development. Hale County, where Greensboro is located, had a 4.2 percent unemployment rate in September, roughly on par with the national average but higher than the state rate that month, and a number of people Sunday talked about the loss of well-paying jobs over the last few years.

“I remember when Greensboro had a poultry plant, a food processing plant and a fish plant,” said Eugene Lyles, a retired businessman and former Hale County Alabama Democratic Conference president. “They’re all gone.”

Health care was also on many people’s minds. The Greensboro Recreational Center sits across from Hale County Hospital; many of Alabama’s rural hospitals face uncertain futures, due in part to state leaders not opting into an expansion of Medicaid.

Speaking to the gathering for about 15 minutes Sunday night, Jones focused on health care and job creation, pledging to renew the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and protect Medicaid and Medicare, while attacking Moore over comments that he wants to get the government out of the health care system, saying that threatened Medicaid and Medicare.

“I don’t have a silver bullet for health care,” Jones said. “What I want to do is learn. I want the Senate to have hearings on what’s working and not working, and you can understand what’s working and not working. I think that’s job number one for United States Senate.”

Jones also pledged to work to bring jobs to the Black Belt and to work on voter access. But he said during the speech — and in a brief interview afterward — that he was delivering the same message wherever he went.

“The talks I give in Hale County are the same talks I give to the Huntsville Chamber of Commerce,” he said. “Because people want to know about health care. That crosses all kinds of lines. People want to know if we’ll be able to save our health care system.”

Jones has mentioned his prosecution of two of the KKK members who killed four girls at the 16th Street Baptist Church in 1963, and that has helped boost his profile in the community.

“It’s something people identify with and applaud,” said state Sen. Bobby Singleton, D-Greensboro.

Black voters helped boost the candidacy of Bob Vance, who lost the chief justice race to Moore in 2012 but ran well ahead of the Democratic ticket that year. Mowery, who helped run the campaign, said his “instinct” said the candidacy was probably boosted by President Barack Obama being on the ticket.

“We kind of knew that that would help,” he said. “It helped big in '08, and there was a lot of ‘That’s our president’ type of thing.”

Jones will struggle to recapture that. Hale County Probate Judge Arthur Crawford said he had not seen an increase in registrations since the primary.

“You can’t replicate it,” Crawford said. “The people don’t see the U.S. Senate like the presidency.”

Goodson, who has organized events for Jones, said activists have encouraged black voters to “turn out like they did when they voted for Obama the first time.”

“It’s our chance to get a Democratic senator in,” she said in an interview last week. “We haven’t had this chance in more than 20 years. We found that empowering.”

Mosley said engaging students directly could help increase interest.

“We’re dealing with tuition and stuff like that,” he said. “Come to the schools and engage with the young people who are going to vote you in. Tackle the issues college students have to deal with.”