After a disappointing start, the Saints (0-1) make a welcome return to the Superdome this week to face the lowly Buccaneers (0-1) in the first NFC South divisional clash of the year. With the division so tightly poised again in 2015, it is possible (or even probable) that the Saints record in divisional games will be a key tiebreaker once December comes around. So the importance of Sunday’s game against a supposedly “inferior” Tampa team should not be understated.

Divisional losses at home to Carolina and Atlanta effectively sealed the Saints fate last year. In fact, since 2007 only one team (the 2014 Panthers) has won the NFC South without having the best record in divisional games. And as we know, last year was an atypical year in many ways (with just 7 wins earning the Panthers a division title). These divisional games are huge – and the Saints have two of them in the next 8 days.

The BoiLa’s Snapshot – The Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa are a team who seem to have been in a permanent state of transition since firing Jon Gruden after their disastrous collapse at the end of the 2008 season. The Bucs haven’t made the postseason since (7 seasons and counting) – a streak that will in all likelihood continue into an 8th year as the long-suffering fans in Tampa endure (yet another) “rebuilding” year. Buc fans will be hoping to avoid another “false dawn” this time. And, on paper at least, Tampa look like they are starting to address the fundamentals. They have drafted what they finally hope to be a franchise quarterback, selecting Jameis Winston with the first pick of the draft. Not only that, but the Bucs have also rebuilt their offensive line (again), with only 2 returning starters in week 1. Lovie Smith will be hoping his offensive makeover will reverse the Bucs fortune against the Saints – Tampa haven’t beaten New Orleans in their last 7 attempts. It didn’t quite go as planned last week, though, with Tampa getting crushed 42-17 at home by the underdog Tennessee Titans.

So surely the Saints can’t lose?



According to Vegas, no they can’t. The Saints are a double figure favorite this week (-10 at the time of writing).

We know better than to go “all in” on a double-digit line when the Saints are concerned, though. Although they may be 7-0 in the last 7 against the Bucs, only twice have the Saints managed a 10+ point victory margin. These matchups always seem to end up closer than expected. Indeed, you only need to go back 12 months to the last time Tampa came to town (as an 11 point underdog, no less), when overtime was required to finally see off the plucky Bucs.

So why are the Saints such a heavy favorite this week? We look to unpick the matchup below, and the key match-up areas for the Saints to capitalise on if they want to win (and perhaps even cover that hefty double-digit spread in the process).

The BoiLa’s Keys to beating the Bucs: Saints Defense: 1. Pressure rookie QB Jameis Winston into mistakes 2. Don’t allow Doug Martin and the Tampa running game to set the tempo Saints Offense: 1. Attack the middle of the field and the seams in the Cover 2 2. Run at more than 2.7 YPC



This week we’ll begin (and indeed focus on) the defensive keys for the Saints. In our view, much like last week in the desert, the battle on that side of the football – matching an inexperienced Tampa O-Line/QB combo and an equally young Saints defense – will likely be the key deciding factor in Sunday’s game.

By the numbers – The Buccaneers Offense:

30 – Completion % for Jameis Winston when under pressure against Tennessee last week. 30th amongst QB’s in week 1. 4 – Number of times Winston was sacked by Tennessee in week 1. 2 – Number of returning starters (and number of rookie starters) on the Tampa offensive line. 249 – Number of rushing yards gained by Tampa against New Orleans in the two 2014 matchups.

Saints Defensive Keys to beating the Bucs :

1. Pressure rookie QB Jameis Winston into mistakes

“Q1 – (11:58) – (Shotgun) – J. Winston pass short left intended for A. Humphries INTERCEPTED by C. Sensabaugh at TB 26. C. Sensabaugh return for 26 yards. TOUCHDOWN.”

Welcome to the NFL, Jameis. Quite literally, the worst possible outcome on his first professional pass attempt. The only way is up, I suppose.

In his first September start last year, QB Jameis Winston was merrily carving up the Citadel Bulldog defense in a Seminole romp down in Tallahassee. He learnt the hard way last week that, even against the NFL-equivalent of the 2014 Citadel Bulldogs (the 2015 Tennessee Titans), pro-football isn’t quite as forgiving.

In his defense, Winston did not completely collapse after the nightmare start. But his final stat line was hardly stellar (16/33, 210 yards, 2 TDs, 2INTs and 4 sacks), against an unquestionably soft Titans defense. For many fans, though, that first play INT is likely all you have seen in the whistlestop 30 seconds of attention the lowly Titans @ Bucs game received last week.

Watching back the tape in full, we think there was a little more to the story than the simple “Winston loses… now let’s take you back to Cowboys Stadium” ESPNglish hot-take narrative. A completion percentage below 50% and 2 turnovers is a surefire way to lose in today’s NFL, but the thing that really caught our eye on tape was the non-existent pass protection offered to Winston by the new-look Tampa offensive line. Tampa allowed Winston to be pressured 13 times last week – that’s almost 40% of his dropbacks. Winston in turn completed just 4 of those 13 passes under duress, throwing an INT and being brought down 4 times.

Winston will invariably miss throws and make bad decisions this week, but, based on the evidence presented at Raymond James last week, the chances of him doing so exponentially increase when he is under pressure. It is notable that when Winston wasn’t under pressure last week, he looked like a serviceable (albeit “green”) rookie QB, with a 60% completion pct. It will be crucial for the Saints to pressure Winston on Sunday.

In some ways, then, the match-up is not dissimilar to last week against Arizona. We had hypothesised last week that, in order to beat the Cardinals, the Saints absolutely had to take advantage of one of the worst O-Lines in the league and pressure the immobile Carson Palmer into mistakes. That simply did not happen. The Saints didn’t even record a sack in Arizona and, outside of Cam Jordan and Hau’oli Kikaha, the front seven really failed to generate any kind of pressure.

So can the Saints generate the pressure that caused Winston so much trouble last week? In theory, yes, as the Tampa offensive line is soft in pass protection. But, in theory, the Saints should equally have been able to generate pressure against the beat-up Arizona Cardinals last week.

The Bucs O-Line will likely line-up like this in front of Winston on Sunday:

LT Donovan Smith – LG Logan Mankins – C Evan Dietrich-Smith – RG Ali Marpet – RT Gosder Cherilus

If you don’t recognise the names, you probably aren’t alone. Only two of the five are returning starters – LG Logan Mankins and C Evan Dietrich-Smith. Two are rookies – LT Donovan Smith and RG Ali Marpet. And RT Gosder Cherilus is a former Colt who arrived as a free-agent in August.

Returning starters LG Logan Mankins and C Evan Dietrich-Smith form a relatively solid G-C combo on the left-side of the Bucs interior line. Mankins is no doubt in the twilight of his career, but remains a serviceable and consistent LG, albeit as more of a run-blocker than a fleet-footed pass protector these days. C Evan Dietrich-Smith is younger, but had an equally solid 2014 season for the Bucs, surrendering only 2 sacks on the year and being a reasonably effective run blocker.

Outside of the returning starters, though, things are more uncertain for the Bucs. One of the great storylines of the offseason was the ascent of RG Ali Marpet from Division III liberal arts college Hobart, to starting right guard for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Marpet’s stock rose astronomically during his senior year at Hobart, to the extent that on draft day the Bucs felt it necessary to trade up at the end of the 2nd round to snag Marpet. It was a spectacular story for a player who has claimed that he spent the summer before his senior year at college researching internships on Wall Street, with graduation looming. Perhaps some “artistic licence” from Marpet on that front, but even without the “made for Hollywood” Wall Street internship angle, it’s still solid “straight to DVD” fodder. Unsurprisingly, the NFL has provided a significant step up in competition for Marpet, and he struggled at times in the preseason (particularly in pass protection). Against the Titans he was encouraging overall, albeit being beaten for speed by rookie lineman Angelo Blackson for 1 of the 4 sacks surrendered by Tampa on the day. One thing is certain this Sunday – Marpet will never have experienced anything close to the atmosphere (or volume) of a road game in the Superdome.

Highly-touted Penn State LT Donovan Smith is the other rookie lineman selected by the Bucs in the second round of the 2015 draft. Smith has an altogether more conventional background (a talented offensive tackle in the Big Ten for Penn State), and scouts tout him as a solid and effective run blocker. The knock on Smith, however, has always been his slow feet and lack of athleticism in pass protection. Speed rushers have caused Smith great difficulty, even in the Big Ten, and last week Tennessee took full advantage of the inexperienced LT. Smith was responsible for 5 of the 13 hurries on Winston against the Titans. If the Saints line-up this week as they did in Arizona, Smith’s footwork is likely to be given a stern examination by speedy Hau’oli Kikaha. Advantage Saints, you would hope.

At the right tackle position, the dependable Demar Dotson starts 2015 on IR for the Bucs (albeit designated to return). Dotson suffered an MCL sprain in Tampa’s preseason opener, causing the already tackle-light Bucs to urgently scour free agency for a starting right tackle. Unsurprisingly the options were limited, and Tampa were forced to settle (no doubt reluctantly) for Indy reject RT Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus had a disastrous 2014 season, surrendering 6 sacks and 42 QB hurries for the Colts, and was duly cut by Indianapolis shortly before training camp this year. Cherilus attributed his poor 2014 season to nagging injuries, of which he now claims to be “100% clear”. His performance to date in 2015 perhaps suggests otherwise. Having only played in 2 preseason games for the Bucs, Cherilus started in week 1 against the Titans and gave up 2 sacks, 3 QB pressures and 3 penalties. It is notable that both the Lions and the Bills tried out Cherilus in the summer, but promptly passed up on the right tackle. The Bucs had little choice when scouring the market in mid-August, though. Cam Jordan – the Saints best pass rusher in week 1 – will likely line up opposite the vulnerable Cherilus on Sunday.

With no reason for the Tampa O-Line to miraculously reverse their pass protection fortunes this week, Winston will no doubt be apprehensive going into the Dome. The Saints will want to get after Winston early to keep the volume and intensity high. In week 1, the real weakness on the Cardinal O-Line was the interior, and the Saints line failed to capitalise. This week, however, the key pass protection soft spots for the Bucs are RT Cherilus and LT Smith on the edge. Ominously for Winston, this matches up perfectly with the Saints only real pass rushing threats – edge rushers Hau’oli Kikaha and Cam Jordan. In this respect it seems a far better match-up “on paper” than the Cardinals, although the lack of interior pass rush may still make it easy for Winston to “step up”, as Palmer did so effortlessly last week.

A final note on the Bucs passing game – although much ink has been spilt over it, we see the possible return of WR Mike Evans (he is rated at 50/50 at the time of writing) as a “red herring” this week. Although Evans is undoubtedly a highly talented playmaker, if the Saints can generate the necessary pressure and get to Winston early, the Bucs receivers should only be minor players this week. Remember – Winston only completed 16 passes in total last week, and we expect Lovie Smith to employ a significantly more “run-first” offense if he is able to do so this week. Which takes us neatly onto our second (altogether more straightforward, but equally important) key…

2. Don’t allow Doug Martin and the Tampa running game to set the tempo

Last week, due to the 21-0 hole they dug themselves, Tampa were forced to rely on Jameis Winston chasing the game against Tennessee. This made it easy for the Titans to scheme on defense, forced Winston into mistkes, and rendered talented all-round RB Doug Martin nothing more than an occasional contributor.

Saints fans will be familiar with the threat Martin poses, though. He averages 99 rushing yards per game in his last 3 starts against the Saints. As a team, Tampa rushed for 249 yards in their two games against New Orleans last year. In addition, although their pass protection struggles are clear, the Bucs’ offensive line has looked more accomplished as a run-blocking unit in the small sample we have seen. Despite chasing the game for much of the 60 minutes against the Titans, Doug Martin still managed 52 strong yards on his 11 carries (4.7 YPC).

The Saints absolutely need to defend the run better than they did against the Cardinals, to avoid this game staying close for longer than it should. Behind soft performances from DTs Kevin Williams and John Jenkins last week, and a wholly anonymous showing from LB Ramon Humber, New Orleans allowed Arizona to rush for 120 yards on 25 carries in week 1. That 4.8 YPC clip puts the Saints 29th out of the 32 NFL defenses. It was particularly disappointing as the Saints’ starters had looked solid defending the run in the preseason, and the Cards only mustered 3.3 YPC as a team in 2014. It may well be that the Saints give more playing time to David Hawthorne this week, after the Ramon Humber experiment failed (again) in week 1. Either way, we will be concerned if there is no improvement this week, not least because having consistent yards from Martin will take away the Saints main edge on defense.

Defensive Summary – The Boila’s Take “All the talk pre-game will be about Jameis Winston. The number one priority for the Saints D, though, will need to be stopping Doug Martin from setting the tempo in what is likely to be a “run first” gameplan for Tampa. If the Saints can succeed in doing so, and force the Bucs into 2nd/3rd and long situations, we think there’s a good chance the Saints D-Line can have success “winning in the trenches” on passing downs to create pressure against this Bucs O-Line. Winston struggled mightily when under duress last week, and with pass protection question marks at both the RT and LT positions, Cam Jordan and Hau’oli Kikaha should be primed to take advantage.”

Ultimately, in our view, it is the battle between the Bucs’ O-Line and the Saints D that will set the tempo on Sunday. That said, on the opposite side of the football, the Saints will need to improve from their showing on the desert. We take a look at the keys for the Saints offense against the Bucs’ D below…

By the numbers – The Buccaneers Defense:

6 – Number of INTs the Bucs had against Drew Brees and the Saints in 2014. 89 – Marcus Mariota’s completion percentage on passes “between the numbers” over the middle against the Bucs in week 1. 10 – Number of missed tackles by the Bucs in week 1. 124 – Number of rushing yards given up by the Bucs against the Titans.

Saints Offensive Keys to beating the Bucs:

1. Attack the middle of the field and the seams in the Cover 2

In 2014, Drew Brees found it surprisingly difficult going against the Bucs and their defense. #9 sprayed 6 interceptions over his two games against Tampa with a completion pct of “only” 62%. This was far below Brees’ season completion pct of close to 70%, and also below par in comparison to the 69% completion pct surrendered by the Bucs on the season. For whatever reason, Brees found it tricky to unlock the Buccaneers defense in 2014. There is a working assumption that because rookie Marcus Mariota picked Tampa apart last week, Drew Brees will destroy them. It might not be that simple, but based on what we saw from the Bucs D last week, it will be difficult for Drew to even get close to his sub-par 2014 numbers against this new 2015 Tampa defense. Which should bode well for the Saints. The one aspect of the Bucs defense that looked flat out awful against Tennessee – and far worse than in 2014 – that was their downfield coverage “between the numbers”. Watching back the tape, there were gaping seams in coverage over the middle for Mariota to exploit last week on virtually ever play. The rookie duly obliged, completing 8 of his 9 pass attempts over the middle for 145 yards and 3 TDs. It was spectacularly easy for Mariota to find seams in the predominantly zone coverage that Tampa employed. Rookie MLB Kwon Alexander, WLB Lavonte David, slot CB Sterling Moore and safeties Bradley McDougald and DJ Swearinger all struggled in coverage over the middle against Tennessee. But you could pretty much single out everybody on the Bucs defense as coverage liabilities last week – there were quite often 2 or even 3 open downfield targets for Mariota to target. It was a different story for the Saints in week 1, with the WRs finding it extremely difficult to find any separation downfield (especially “between the numbers”). The steady stream of screens and short passes that were dialled up in the desert did have occasional success, but it all felt far more conservative than Saints fans are accustomed to. Given what we have seen on the Bucs/Titans tape, we fully expect Brees to be released from the proverbial “straight jacket” on his return to the Dome this week. The Saints should be able to use big targets like Marques Colston and Brandon Coleman down the seams to create mismatches – and both should be primed for strong days against Tampa. CB Jonathan Banks is the only Bucs cornerback over 5’10. The Saints should therefore have a significant size mismatch on the outside on virtually every passing down. Having been shut down against Arizona, Brandin Cooks should also hopefully see more looks against the potentially soft Tampa D. He showed flashes of his ability to beat defenders and get open “downfield” in the preseason – if the Bucs defense performs anything close to how it did last week, there will be plenty of seams and holes downfield for Cooks to exploit.

The Bucs defense didn’t only struggle between the 20s against the Titans – they were equally poor in the redzone. Tennessee went 4-4 on their redzone visits at Raymond James. The Saints simply stalled when they got into the redzone last week, but should find the softer Tampa zone defense easier to exploit than Arizona’s superior secondary.

In fact, the only real question mark for the Saints passing game this week seems to rest back at the feet (or in the hands) of #9. Can Brees finally “unlock” Lovie Smith’s Tampa defense? The Saints won both match-ups in 2014 in spite of Brees, rather than because of Brees. Hopefully his mystery struggles will not carry into 2015. The Saints only punted 5 times across the two games against Tampa in 2014. If Brees can avoid turnovers this time around, the Saints should surely be able to end the majority of their drives in points, much like the Titans did last week. 2. Run at more than 2.7 YPC

The Saints rushed for just 54 yards on 20 carries against Arizona last week. That 2.7 YPC mark is the worst in the NFL. Admittedly, the Cardinals rushing defense was extremely stout in their home opener, but the Saints simply have to be better against the Bucs. All evidence seems to suggest that they will be. The Saints had great success rushing against this Tampa defense in 2014, amassing 210 yards in the two matchups last year, including 140 yards in the Superdome. The 2015 Bucs do not look to be a particularly strong upgrade in the run defense department. According to PFF, the Bucs missed a stunning 10 tackles against Tennessee last week, and we counted a similar number of miscues on the tape. The bruising combination of Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson is likely to expose any deficiencies that Tampa have in that regard. In addition, Bucs defenders struggled mightily to set the edge against outside runs last week. On our count, nearly 90 of the Titans 124 rushing yards came on outside runs – a staggeringly high number. Toss, sweep and stretch plays should have success this week – particularly if the speedy CJ Spiller is able to suit up. A final name to note in the run defense is rookie MLB Kwon Alexander. He will no doubt be familiar to Saints fans from his days at LSU. Alexander had a very tough NFL debut last week, struggling to diagnose plays, taking bad angles, and missing two tackles. The Saints are acutely aware of the “learning experience” that a rookie MLB has to go through, but will no doubt look to take advantage of Alexander as he continues to adjust to “pro speed”.

Offensive Summary – The BoiLa’s Take “As you can see from the emphasis above, we fully expect that the outcome of this game will be dictated largely by the Saints play on defense. Putting aside Drew Brees mysterious struggles against the Bucs defense in 2014, the New Orleans offense looks to match-up strongly against a sub-par Tampa D in all departments. The Saints must improve on their NFL-worst 2.7 YPC on the ground, and should be able to do so against a Tampa D that will no doubt spend much of their preparation for this week trying to fix the gaping holes in coverage that plagued their disastrous season opener. Indeed, unless the Bucs are able to apply a quick fix on D, based on the week one tape, Brees should also be able to feast on their sloppy play.”

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We’re hoping to get The BoiLa out to a wider range of Who Dats in 2015, and any help in achieving this would be greatly appreciated. So do spread the word and feel free to share this article with any other Saints fans you think might be interested.

Following the game on Sunday we’ll be grading each players performance using our color-code grading system, as we did with all Saints games last season. If you’ve never seen our grading before and want to know what you can expect, then feel free to check back through all of our Saints grades from last season here.



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