ADP got the headline job number correct, I certainly didn't. However, one look beneath the surface shows this was actually an anemic jobs report.



Unemployment was up, and the household survey shows a loss of 195,000 jobs. The household numbers are even worse because part-time employment went up.



Jobs Report at a Glance



Here is an overview of today's release.





US Payrolls +163,000 - Establishment Survey

US Employment -195,000 - Household Survey

US Unemployment Rate +.01 at 8.3% - Household Survey

The Civilian Labor Force fell by 150,000. Otherwise the unemployment rate would have risen more.

Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls steady at 34.5 hours

The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls steady at 33.7 hours.

Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private nonfarm workers sector rose by 2 cents.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +77,000 to +87,000, and the change for June was revised from +80,000 to +64,000.

US Unemployment Rate +.1 to 8.3%

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,683,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,655,000.

This month the Civilian Labor Force fell by 150,000.

This month, those "not" in the labor force increased by 348,000 to 88,340,000, another record high. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.

In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,027,000

Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,770,000.

Participation Rate was steady at 63.8%;

There are 8,246,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, an increase of 36,000

Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 5.185 million a decline of 185,000.

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

June 2012

Jobs Report

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing..

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Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey January 2008 through July 2012 - Seasonally Adjusted

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Average Hourly Earnings vs. CPI

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.





Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2011

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012

Birth-Death Note

Household Survey Data

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Those not in the labor force rose by 2,027,000

Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs People retire because they cannot find jobs People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Part Time Status

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BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment

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Grossly Distorted Statistics