A large number of Americans support the policy of a no-fly zone in Libya, even in its enhanced form, which is what the U.N. Security Council resolution allows: short of putting American boots on the ground, if Muammar el-Qaddafi's troops move an inch, they can be destroyed. But a bare majority support Obama's execution of the policy. This is an artifact of political polarization, of course - the number of Republican presidential candidates who have altered their positions on Libya as Obama's have become clear is approaching several. But it's also a function of confusion.

Why does American policy (which is regime change) differ from the U.N. Security Council resolution (which does not call for it), and why does Obama feel constrained by the U.N.?

Why isn't the U.S. in the lead here?

What are the ramifications of invading (in a way) a Muslim country, again?

What's the end game?

How long will U.S. troops be engaged in this area of operations?

If Obama can clear this up, then his speech will be a success. It will alleviate some pressure from Congress and from elite commentators who remember everything the president says and does about military intervention abroad and are determined to point out the evident inconsistencies.

If there is a thread that connects, at least in the president's mind, his foreign policy engagements, he needs to make it thicker. Foreign policy decision making is a lot more ad hoc than pre-planned, but it can't seem that way, especially when the lives of U.S. soldiers are at stake, and when Congress, including members of the president's own party, are making noise about constitutional prerogatives and war powers.

To Obama a stable Middle East is a major national interest worth fighting for. An unstable Libya makes the democratic current that is running through the region (and its neighbors, Egypt and Tunisia) less viscous. It has second-order ramifications in Iran. It risks becoming a safe haven for terrorists.

"Let me be clear." The line is a mainstay of almost every major presidential address on foreign policy. Whether Obama succeeds in conveying his complex intentions with a pithy phrase or two is often less about the skill of his speechwriters and more about America's capacity for accepting decisive military action by their commander in chief. But it's also about who the man is - and whether, as his own re-election approaches, Americans know enough about Obama's vision to let him see it through.

Drop-down bar thumbnail credit: Jim Young/Reuters



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