History doesn't repeat, but it's getting ready to rhyme in the AFC South.

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The Jaguars' trade of 2011 first-round pick Blaine Gabbert is another reminder to Jacksonville fans of the decision the team made that year to take the Missouri quarterback with the 10th pick and then watch division rival Houston select J.J. Watt at No. 11. There were Pro Bowl-bound defensive ends also picked at No. 14 (Robert Quinn) and at No. 16 (Ryan Kerrigan, in a pick traded from Jacksonville), but it is Watt who will forever stand in severe contrast with Gabbert in Duval County. Watt is one the best defensive players in football over the last three years, while Gabbert never looked like a starter in Jacksonville, let alone a star.

Now the Jaguars are picking third, this time with the Texans two spots in front of them at No. 1. No one can say for sure what new Houston coach Bill O'Brien will do, but the Texans could pick Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater or Johnny Manziel. If the Rams, picking second, go with an offensive lineman as expected, the Jags will once again be choosing between a quarterback and a highly regarded defensive end. This time, it's Jadeveon Clowney.

That means picking a quarterback will set up the same possibility for the Jags: watching their own selection falter while Clowney creates havoc elsewhere.

It certainly could happen: Clowney looks every bit as disruptive as Watt, if not more so. Watt has been remarkable in his ability to affect every single play, even if he doesn't break into the pocket, and Clowney has done that even in his off games at South Carolina.

So should the Jags go with Clowney if he's there at No. 3?

If presented with the same choice – a quarterback or a defensive end – it is smarter to do what Jacksonville did in 2011. That's especially so if Jacksonville has a chance to draft Bridgewater.

The Louisville quarterback is a lot safer as a first-round pick than Gabbert was. First, Bridgewater is a potential No. 1 pick, and nobody said that about Gabbert at 10 (except perhaps then-general manager Gene Smith). There is no way Bridgewater (or Bortles for that matter) is slipping to 10. There's a reason for that: Gabbert's college numbers were good but not eye-popping. He had 40 touchdowns against 18 interceptions. Bridgewater has 72 touchdowns and 24 interceptions. His touchdown count increased in every single season at Louisville, and his interception count fell. That wasn't the case with Gabbert.

Defenders of the 2011 pick argued Gabbert needed time to mature. Bridgewater, with three years already as a starter, looks about as prepared as any rookie could.

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