It’s August 1st. It’s the CFL. We’ve all know that you can’t predict anything in this league. So it’s time to predict who’s going to be in the 2012 Grey Cup, right?

The first thing we need to do is eliminate the dark horse, long shot teams, namely Winnipeg. Buck “The Glassman” Pierce is out for now and Alex Brink, while not an incompetent quarterback, isn’t going to rack up a winning season. Let’s call this a rebuilding year for the Mosquito Nation.

Two more teams that aren’t clear contenders at this point are Calgary and Montreal, both with 2-3 records and dodgy prospects at pivot. In Montreal, Calvillo’s dealing with a sore shoulder that has affected his throwing motion, leading to a couple of unexpected losses after a strong start to the season. We all knew Calvillo was getting long in the tooth, and that we’re closing in on when, not if, he’ll retire. There are those who think he’s on borrowed time already, though Trestman starting an injured AC over the capable Adrian MacPherson is cause for wonder.

Meanwhile, Calgary has a decent quarterback in Kevin Glenn–unless that idiot Kevin Glenn is playing. The Ticats learned over the last couple of seasons that you can’t know beforehand which Glenn will show up: the powerful passer who seems to will the ball into his receivers’ hands, or the chump who seems to forget what colour jersey he’s wearing and throws unbelievable picks at the worst possible moment. Calgary might earn a playoff spot but doesn’t look likely to be in the final.

There’s a glut of teams with 3-2 records at this point. On the eastern side of the board, Hamilton and Toronto are both on winning streaks, and have both beaten decent teams to get to the top of the board. Their stats are a wash so far as well. As long as none of the key offensive tools go down with injuries, we’re looking at a QEW final in the east this year. The richness of Hamilton’s targets for a very hot Hank Burris probably gives the Tabbies the edge to host that game.

In the west, strong teams with inconsistent performances are the rule. Jyles, Lulay, and Durant are all on good form this year, and no one is running away with the top spot in the conference at this point. The strength of the BC and Saskatchewan receiving corps put them ahead of Edmonton at this point, although a strong showing by Bowman and Stamps–both with thousand-plus yards in 2011–could easily change that for the Eskimos. The Lions taking the top spot in the West, and the Riders contesting them in the final, seems like the most probable outcome for the left half of the Grey Cup equation.

A BC-Hamilton cup seems like a good possibility, then, given the performances of the teams so far. But there’s a lot of parity and more than two-thirds of a season where all this will play out. It’s completely irresponsible to name a Grey Cup winner at this point, so we’ll wait till Labour Day to make a call on that–knowing, of course, that there’s one thing the CFL can’t be beaten at, and that’s making a fool of anyone who thinks they can see any more than a couple of days into the future.

So prove me wrong, Winnipeg. Prove me wrong.