Week 14 Results:

Week 14 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 4-1-0 21-8-1 (.700) Drive Picks 13-3-0 46-26-1 (.630) Metric Picks 8-8-0 47-25-1 (.643) QBR Picks 9-7-0 37-35-1 (.506)

Last week, reader Rob C noticed a trend within the model, where picks in which the spread is 3.5 or less and the Drive and Metric models agree are 21-2 (.913). I will start noting games in which these conditions are met in in italics. Here are my model’s picks for this week:

Game Drive Pick Metric Pick QBR Pick LAC @ KC (-3.5) KC -3.5 LAC +3.5 KC -3.5 HOU (-6) @ NYJ NYJ +6 HOU -6 HOU -6 CLE @ DEN (-3) DEN -3 DEN -3 CLE +3 DAL @ IND (-3) IND -3 DAL +3 DAL +3 ARI @ ATL (-8.5) ATL -8.5 ATL -8.5 ATL -8.5 TB @ BAL (-7.5) BAL -7.5 BAL -7.5 TB +7.5 DET @ BUF (-2.5) DET +2.5 DET +2.5 DET +2.5 GB @ CHI (-6) CHI -6 CHI -6 GB +6 OAK @ CIN (-2.5) CIN -2.5 CIN -2.5 OAK +2.5 WAS @ JAX (-7) WAS +7 WAS +7 WAS +7 MIA @ MIN (-7) MIN -7 MIN -7 MIA +7 TEN @ NYG (-2.5) TEN +2.5 TEN +2.5 TEN +2.5 SEA (-4.5) @ SF SEA -4.5 SEA -4.5 SEA -4.5 NE (-2) @ PIT PIT +2 PIT +2 PIT +2 PHI @ LAR (-10.5) LAR -10.5 LAR -10.5 PHI +10.5 NO (-6) @ CAR NO -6 NO -6 CAR +6

Methodology:

Drive Method: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%

Metric Method: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP

QBR Method: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:

ATL -8.5

DET +2.5

WAS +7 (I would stay away. WAS has been a consensus pick for the past three weeks due to Mark Sanchez not being accounted for in the models)

TEN +2.5

SEA -4.5

PIT +2

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