The economic performance of American presidents tends to deteriorate during their second term

THE economic auguries for Barack Obama’s second term are not good. By comparing the changes across seven economic indicators (GDP, industrial production, household incomes, house prices, unemployment, stockmarkets and federal debt) during their presidential terms, The Economist has analysed the economic performance of all 11 two-term presidents since Teddy Roosevelt took office in September 1901. The first chart below shows that the economic performance of the 11 two-term presidents worsens by some 4.2 points on our index in their second terms compared with their first. The second chart shows the average change in each of these economic indicators, as well as consumer confidence. On average, all these indicators deteriorate in the second term.

Correction and clarification: Due to a spreadsheet hiccup, some data values in chart 2 were miscalculated, which changed the amounts but not the overall picture. The chart was corrected on January 23rd. Our apologies. The text also was amended. Separately, some commentators complained that we seemed to presume a causal relationship between presidential terms and performance, or failed to appreciate reversion to the mean. We did not suggest a causal link, and reversion to the mean may indeed be at play (in which case Obama's second term economic performance may improve, as happened for Reagan and Clinton, both of whom took over during poor economic times and left during an upswing).