With the midterm elections just days away, there’s little indication that California is seeing a “blue wave” of Democratic votes, at least in the early returns of vote-by-mail ballots — and in some key races that will help determine control of the House, Republican voter response has been strong.

There are still a lot more ballots to come in, cautioned Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which supplies voter information to a variety of political campaigns. But so far, according to a mail ballot tracker he runs, Republican votes are keeping pace with the number of Democratic ballots.

“Looking at the comparable numbers, the statewide mail ballot returns at this point are running about 40 percent higher than the primary, 1.7 million to 1.2 million,” he said.

Interest is definitely high in the Republican-held congressional districts that Democrats are looking to flip in their quest to gain the 23 seats they need to take back control of the House.

For example, in Orange County’s 45th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Mimi Walters is running against Democrat Katie Porter, the vote-by-mail return by the weekend was almost double what it was at the same point in the June primary, Mitchell said. In the 48th district, where GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa (Orange County) is being challenged by Democrat Harley Rouda, the number of mail-in ballots was up 84 percent.

In the Central Valley’s 10th district, there was a 69 percent jump in mail-in ballots from voters deciding between Republican Rep. Jeff Denham and Democrat Josh Harder.

But the boost might not be helping Democrats. In the Walters vs. Porter race, for example, Democrats made up 31 percent of those who received mail ballots, while Republicans made up 37 percent. As of Monday, however, the total number of ballots coming back favored Republicans, 45 percent to 31 percent. The numbers were similarly lopsided in Rohrabacher’s district, while in the Denham vs. Harder race, Democratic and Republican returns were about even.

There is reason for Democrats to take heart as well, however: Early returns often skew Republican. To read political writer John Wildermuth’s full analysis, click here.

Deep dives and late takes

Bay Area voters looking to flip the House don’t have much to work with at home: Every congressional district is safely blue. So some are traveling into the Central Valley to try to knock off the closest Republican.

That Central Valley district is also a prime example of a trend in Democratic politics — women are dominating the grass-roots campaigns seeking to grab seats from Republicans.

In Orange County, meanwhile, Democratic hopes of defeating Republican House candidates is running up against a bit of reality — the GOP may be weakened there, but it’s far from dead.

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There’s nothing hotter on the San Francisco ballot than Proposition C, which would tax large companies to raise another $300 million a year for homelessness programs. Opponents have suggested companies will flee the city if it passes. But if they do, there’s a good chance their employees won’t go with them.

‘What do you mean, he’s not here yet?’

That was the reaction of former Mayor Willie Brown at his annual political breakfast Tuesday after Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom won a coin toss to see whether he or Republican rival John Cox would speak first — and Newsom was nowhere to be found.

He eventually showed up — it was all a misunderstanding, Brown later said — and offered a sunny view of the current state of California to counter the glass-totally-empty version that Cox laid out for a crowd of Democratic officeholders and power brokers. The Chronicle’s Joe Garofoli was there — to read his report, click here.

Sound bite

Democrats are targeting seven GOP seats in California to reach the 23 they need to wrest control of the House. But after visiting several of those districts in the final days of the 2018 midterms, Chronicle political writers John Wildermuth and Joe Garofoli are dubious that the Democrats will win more than two of those California races. Listen to their “It’s All Political” podcast to hear why.

Trump watch

Last week, we asked the head of the Republican National Committee whether President Trump might come to California to help Republicans whose electoral fortunes are directly linked to whether the GOP will hold the House.

“Everything is on the table with the president and the party,” Ronna McDaniel replied. “He has kept the last week of the campaign clear, and he’ll be where he is needed.”

Apparently, he’s not needed in California. Trump’s schedule for the campaign’s last week includes trips to Montana (close race for a U.S. Senate seat), two trips to Missouri (ditto) and two to Florida (close races for Senate and governor).

Democrats could be forgiven for hoping their favorite foil would swing by. At least one, Andrew Janz, the Democrat who is challenging Trump favorite Rep. Devin Nunes in the San Joaquin Valley, jumped on the mere rumor to appeal for donations, asking, “Did you hear that Trump is coming to the Valley to rally the MAGA troops for Nunes?”

Neither did we.

The big event

Haven’t had your fill of politics yet? Join The Chronicle’s political experts Heather Knight, Phil Matier and Joe Garofoli, along with moderator Editor-in-Chief Audrey Cooper, at a midterms-palooza Tuesday evening at 6:30 p.m. at the Grand Theater, 2665 Mission St. in San Francisco. There are still a few tickets to be had: Click here for info.

And the election night party schedule is rolling in. There’s one for the Resistance, one for techies, one for the Tenderloin community and one hosted by a drag queen. Check it out on The Chronicle’s political events calendar.

The Political Punch newsletter publishes Tuesdays and Thursdays between noon and 3 p.m. It is produced by the staff of The San Francisco Chronicle and edited by politics editor Trapper Byrne. Email: tbyrne@sfchronicle.com