Not because it's a dud policy: Labor, the Greens and most of the crossbenchers are naturally inclined to vote for increased childcare support. The problem is that the government wants the Senate to pass family tax benefit cuts to pay for the package.

Social Services Minister Scott Morrison. Credit:Louie Douvis

The unpopular cuts were contained in the budget last year and remain stalled in the Senate. Labor and a majority of crossbenchers insist they will continue to block the cuts, no matter what.

The government's secret weapon here is the Minister for Social Services, Scott Morrison. He is well-liked by the crossbench and has developed a reputation as a skilful and pragmatic negotiator. If anyone in the government can get the package passed, it's him.

He says he's already had "constructive" initial meetings with the crossbench and he has time on his side - the changes aren't due to begin for another two years.