1. There are only four states that really matter

With 62 days until the presidential election on Nov. 8, here are the four major dynamics at play:

The Tuesday after Labor Day marks the traditional start of the final sprint of the presidential campaign. The kids are going back to school, the debates will soon begin, the television campaign advertising will become non-stop, and many Americans will take a fresh look at the campaign.

Every time a national poll comes out (including two released Tuesday morning), there is diminishing need to pay any attention to it. These have little to do with the contest for president. Consider this: A representative national poll will include one out of seven respondents from California, which, last we checked, is definitely voting for Hillary Clinton.


The general election campaign kicked off in the early summer with about a dozen swing states. But polls show Clinton with a healthy lead in many of those states, including Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan.

The campaign focus lately has been on the four major states still in play: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

These are the places where the campaigns are spending their time and money. On Monday, for example, both presidential nominees and their running mates were in Ohio. On Tuesday, both Tim Kaine and Donald Trump will be in North Carolina.

2. Clinton is winning

Clinton's comfortable lead in some swing states combined with her party's institutional advantage the Electoral College means that she is closer than Trump to winning. The Washington Post put her advantage at 244 electoral votes in the bag, compared to the 126 electoral votes that Trump can count on.

Of the four big swing states mentioned above, Clinton could lose three of them, but if she wins Florida, she becomes the next president. There are other Electoral College permutations that would give her the necessary votes to win. But while the race is still within the margin of error in Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, Georgia and Arizona, their smaller sizes (and therefore fewer Electoral College votes) mean these states will only help the determine the size of a win, but not necessarily the win itself


3. Neither candidate is particularly liked

Americans entered the summer staring down at the two most unpopular presidential nominees in US history. Nothing in the last three months has changed that, including the national conventions.

In fact, in August, more reasons emerged as to why Americans are so uneasy about their candidates: Trump's swirling controversies, and more news dripping out about Clinton's handling of email while she was US secretary of state.

4. The race is stuck

While polls have fluctuated during the summer, these surveys have basically returned to where they started before the conventions. Clinton has a slim lead, but she has been unable to put away Trump.

Even though Trump has now begun to run television ads and hire more staff, most experts say the race will continue to be basically where it is until the first debate -- three weeks from now.

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