OTTAWA–Like it or not, a fall federal election is a virtual certainty, say the two opposition leaders who could prop up the Conservative government.

The chances of Prime Minister Stephen Harper working with the other parties in the House of Commons when it returns Monday are slim to none, NDP Leader Jack Layton told the Toronto Star yesterday.

"It seems to me that Mr. Harper has already decided and that he's gung-ho about going out into the schoolyard and having a rumble with Mr. Ignatieff," Layton said.

Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe was of a similar opinion when he headed into a two-day caucus meeting in Quebec City.

"I've acquired over the past few days in touring Quebec the firm conviction that, barring a major change, there will be an election," Duceppe told reporters. "It doesn't look like there is going to be much compromising happening."

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has vowed to topple Harper's minority government at the earliest opportunity. "It's a question of principle for us," he said yesterday.

An election this fall would be the fourth in five years.

In the 308-seat Commons, the Conservatives hold 143 seats, the Liberals 77, the Bloc 48 and the NDP 36. There is one independent MP and there are three vacancies.

To trigger an election, all three opposition parties would have to vote against the government.

The Liberals were the first out of the gate with pre-election advertising, followed by the Bloc. The Star has also learned Liberal campaign buses are virtually ready.

During a stop in Kitchener-Waterloo, Ignatieff said the Conservatives have left Canada with one of the worst economic records in the country's history.

"We believe that if you are running the largest deficit in history, terrible unemployment numbers, record bankruptcies and you are letting Canadian champions down and you are not investing in the jobs of tomorrow and the know-how of tomorrow, then we can't support you and we need to present Canadians with an alternative," he said.

The government says it would be irresponsible to force an election when Canada is struggling to recover from the recession.

"An election right now would be detrimental to the Canadian economy and to the recovery that we are starting to see," said Harper spokesman Dimitri Soudas.

Soudas said the government has been willing all along to work with the opposition, noting that this week Human Resources Minister Diane Finley said she is prepared to make improvements to employment insurance, "just like we promised we would do last spring."

It was the Liberals who walked away from a specially created panel designed to review ways of making it easier to qualify for EI, he said.

Election talk comes as public opinion polls are showing the Liberals trailing the Conservatives.

A Strategic Counsel survey published yesterday put Conservative support at 35 per cent to 30 per cent for the Liberals, 14 per cent for the NDP, 12 per cent for the Bloc and 9 per cent for the Green party.

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A Toronto Star-Angus Reid poll last week showed Conservatives with 33 per cent support compared with 32 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP had 19 per cent, the Bloc 9 per cent and the Greens 7 per cent.

The election dance begins when the Commons returns Monday from its summer break.

If the Conservatives next week introduce a ways and means motion to authorize the $3 billion renovation tax credit promised in the budget, the opposition could topple the government, leading to an election as early as Oct. 26.

The Liberals have accused the Conservatives of fear-mongering by suggesting an election would kill the renovation tax credit, saying the Tories know full well the credit will be recognized by whoever forms the next government.

Another scenario could see the Conservatives fall after Sept. 28, when the government is to present an update on its stimulus efforts. In that case, an election could come as early as Nov. 9.

EI remains contentious. The opposition fears changes proposed by the government will be minor and aimed at making the Tories look like they are compromising.

Yesterday, Finley indicated the government could extend the duration of the benefits, The Canadian Press reported.

The NDP wants improvements to EI and pension protection, as well as a reduction of credit card rates and elimination of ATM user fees.

Layton said his party will not accept minor changes in exchange for propping up the government. "It would have to be something significant that addresses all our proposals," he said.





With files from Susan Delacourt

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