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Judging by the headlines, Prime Minister Stephen Harper should be cowering in his bed, sheets pulled to his chin, counting down the days until he has to find a new home. The news is rotten, there’s more Duffy to come, his cabinet is deserting him and his caucus is checking the want ads for jobs in a post-political world.

Yet Harper doesn’t look all that worried. Maybe he’s kidding himself, figuring Canadians will finally warm to him just in time for October’s election. After all it’s only been nine years. There’s still time. A little, anyway.

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Or maybe it’s something else.

The numbers, for instance. Even a few weeks before an election call it’s dangerous to put too much stock in polls. Rachel Notley said she didn’t seriously absorb the likelihood she could become premier of Alberta until a couple of weeks before it happened. Still, most soundings tend to agree the Tories are facing a profoundly disgruntled electorate. We’re told that 60-65% of the population is determined to vote for any party but the Conservatives. Thomas Mulcair is doing his best to look like a male version of Notley, and gaining ground. Justin Trudeau has finally released some policies, and they aren’t all bad.