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Safety first. Canada needs to flatten that so-called curve so that we can return to our normal lives along with our loved ones.

But the economic costs of the lockdown is piling up. Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter says the economy is losing just above half a per cent of annual GDP each week.

“Each week accounts for just under 2 per cent of the year, and somewhere between 23 per cent and 35 per cent of the economy is currently locked down (depending on the region),” the economist wrote in a note. “So, every week of shutdown thus costs the economy between 0.5 per cent and 0.7 per cent of annual GDP.”

BMO now forecasts Canada’s GDP growth to contract by 4.5 per cent this year, revised from its prior call of 3.0 per cent decline.

“That would exceed the biggest drop in modern times; previously that was a 3.2 per cent drop in 1982. Canada will likely take an even heavier hit due to the slump in commodity prices (especially oil), and also a still-milder boost from fiscal stimulus, at least up to this point. Here, too, we expect a big Q2 contraction (down 45%) after a 6.5% drop in Q1, but also a big rebound in H2,” Porter wrote. “The downward revisions reflect the reality of closures persisting for longer than first suspected.”