New Jersey's weather is looking stormy later this week, with a possible coastal storm developing off the Jersey Shore. Forecasters are concerned about the risk of coastal flooding and powerful winds. (AccuWeather)

N.J. weather update: Threat of heavy rain, big waves, flooding

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By Len Melisurgo and Jeff Goldman | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

New Jersey's weather outlook is looking stormy later this week, with forecasters keeping an eye on a large storm system that could pound the Garden State with heavy rain, crashing waves, coastal flooding and wind gusts as strong as 40 to 45 mph.

The first phase of the storm system is expected to move across the Central Plains and head into New Jersey on Thursday morning or Thursday afternoon, bringing pockets of heavy rain to our region, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecasters said energy from that storm system might redevelop into a strong coastal storm near Delaware or New Jersey on Thursday night or early Friday, paving the way for possible flooding and strong wind gusts across the Jersey Shore and inland.

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DRY NEXT 2 DAYS, THEN.....

A coastal storm will develop Thursday into Friday giving us another round of heavy rain, gusty winds and the threat of tidal flooding/erosion. This storm will linger somewhere offshore as the pattern gets all bottled up. pic.twitter.com/Bmk97ZbAlg — Cecily Tynan (@CecilyTynan) February 26, 2018

Coastal storm track

Mike Silva, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s regional forecast office in Mount Holly, said the track and strength of the coastal storm are not yet certain, so it’s too early to pinpoint the areas that will likely be hardest hit.

However, the weather service says residents who live in low-lying coastal areas or on streets near streams or rivers should pay close attention to the latest forecasts.

“There’s still a lot of time and things can change,” Silva said. The storm “has the potential for heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal flooding.”

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Hazardous weather outlook issued for New Jersey

In a hazardous weather outlook issued early Tuesday morning, the weather service said coastal flooding is expected for high tide cycles from late Thursday into at least Saturday morning.

The Friday morning high tide cycle could bring moderate flooding to coastal areas. Moderate coastal flooding will be possible with the Friday morning high tide cycle

Forecasters say the full moon that's coming on Thursday could exacerbate the flooding.

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All signs point to a potent northeast coastal storm Friday. Low location and exit timing will determine impact and duration. Coastal flooding, rain, and wind a good bet for starters. pic.twitter.com/u1rVKCzPvC — Rob Marciano (@RobMarciano) February 26, 2018

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Early rainfall projections, possible snow

As of now, forecasters are expecting 1 to 2 inches of rain to fall across New Jersey on Thursday and Friday, and they believe the stormy weather should be over by Saturday morning.

Temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to keep most of the precipitation as rain, but it’s possible some snow could fall in Sussex County and in the Poconos in eastern Pennsylvania at the tail end of the coastal storm, if colder air works its way in from the upper atmosphere, Silva and other forecasters said.

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Here are some notes on the storm system expected to affect the area late this week. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts! Posted by US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly on Tuesday, February 27, 2018

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Rainy, stormy February

The upcoming wave of stormy weather comes off the heels of one of the wettest Februaries on record in New Jersey and New York City.

Although snowfall has been far below normal in February 2018, except in northwestern New Jersey and the Lehigh Valley region, rainfall has been far above normal, according to data from the National Weather Service and the New Jersey Weather & Climate Network at Rutgers University.

When you combine all the precipitation — rain, melted snow and melted sleet — it amounts to an all-time February record in New Brunswick and very close to all-time February records in Atlantic City and Newark.

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More New York City area weather

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More Philadelphia area weather

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Staff writer Jeff Goldman contributed to this report. Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook.