The SNP hierarchy is fundamentally at odds with their membership

The Telegraph’s online “Wargaming the General Election” series has been excellent. Positing a number of potential scenarios and what would need to occur to see them become reality is a discussion capable of ensnaring casual poll-watcher and genuine election nerd alike. This week, we were treated to “How the SNP could win 50 seats and push for Scottish Independence”. As someone who takes more than a passing interest in Scottish elections, let me respond.

This is a two-part discussion – the first on seat numbers, the second on a renewed push for independence. I can categorically state, without fear of contradiction, that the second part of that proposition will occur no matter what. Nicola Sturgeon slips in the bath and that is an indyref2 trigger. There is no scenario yet invented – political, economic, philosophic, artistic or psephological – wherein the First Minister will not declare that independence is just over the next hill and has never been closer or more attainable.

But as for the SNP returning 50 seats this week, a possible outcome the nationalists have been all too keen to talk up? I will happily wager to strip naked on the banks of Loch Ness and subject myself to a Hogmanay wild swimming session should such a result occur, safe in the knowledge that my modesty (and others’ eyeballs) will remain unmolested. And here’s why.