With about twelve hours to go until the polling places open, it’s time to get off the fence and make some firm predictions. I’ve been saying for months that I think Obama is likely to win, and, as you might expect, I’m not changing my opinion now. Indeed, I’m more confident than I was a week or two ago. Over the past few days, the national polls have shown a slight but notable swing in the President’s favor, probably due to his handling of Hurricane Sandy. At the local level, virtually nothing has changed since my previous update before the weekend: voter surveys show him leading in seven of the eight battleground states—Florida is the exception. I’d left a few toss-ups on that map, but we’re done with that now.

In making my final calls, I’m going to do what I’ve done all along, and rely heavily on the state-level polls, especially the most recent ones. While the polls aren’t always reliable, they do provide the most timely and scientific evidence we have to go on. Before I go against them, I would like to see a particularly convincing argument for why they might be wrong. In this election, I haven’t seen such an argument—more on this in a later post. Now to the figures.

In the last update to The New Yorker’s electoral map, I had Obama with two hundred and seventy-seven votes in the electoral college, Romney with two hundred and thirty-five, and twenty-six votes from three states—Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia—as too close to call. Even today, I think the results in each of these states could go either way: the polls are very close. But for sake of completeness (and based on the very latest data), I am calling all three states for Obama, which produces a final tally of three hundred and three votes for Obama and two hundred and thirty-five for Romney.

Our electoral map is a bit different than others, which tend to show seven states as battlegrounds: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia. Some also include Wisconsin. For some time now, I’ve had four of these states—Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin—leaning to Obama, and Florida leaning to Romney. Based on the latest polling numbers, I don’t see any reason to change these calls, or to rethink my previous judgments on Michigan and Pennsylvania (Obama), or North Carolina (Romney). Here’s why:

Michigan and Pennsylvania: Republican efforts to talk up their chances in these states are just that—talk. In Michigan, five polls have been carried out over the past week or so, and in four of them Obama has been leading—by three to six points. The other poll, which shows Romney leading by one point, doesn’t look very reliable. A survey for the local affiliate of Fox News carried out by the firm Baydoun/Foster, it has consistently shown Obama doing worse than in other surveys. In Pennsylvania, it’s a similar story. Two of the three polls carried over the past week show Obama leading comfortably. The other one, from the Pittsburgh Tribune Review/Susquehanna, showed the race level, but it has a history of overstating Romney’s vote share relative to other polls.

Florida and North Carolina: Citing Obama’s strong showing among early voters, an unnamed Obama campaign official told Nancy Cordes of CBS News that he would bet his own money that the President would sweep all the swing states, including these two traditional G.O.P. strongholds. That sounds like bluster. The polls suggest that North Carolina shifted decisively to Romney weeks ago. Since the start of October, Obama hasn’t been leading in a single poll there. In Florida, the race is tighter, but the G.O.P. appears to have a slight edge. In the past week, six statewide polls have been carried out, and Romney has been leading in four of them. The surveys showing Obama trailing include the respected Mason-Dixon poll, which has shown Romney with a comfortable lead for a month now, and a just published poll from the Jacksonville Times Union, which shows him up by five points. Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon pointed out that the Sunshine State traditionally tilts to the G.O.P. In 2008, when Obama defeated John McCain by seven points, he only carried Florida by three points. “Three points is not a lot of ground to make up in Florida for a Republican, particularly when the President’s popularity is mixed, at best,” Coker said.

Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin: If Romney is to win any of these states, he needs a sizable eve-of-polling swing in his direction—there is still no sign of one. On Monday afternoon, according to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, Obama was leading by 2.4 points in Iowa, by 2.8 points in Nevada, by 2.8 points in Ohio, and by 4.2 points in Wisconsin. Setting aside Wisconsin, these are pretty narrow margins, but the stability of Obama’s lead is striking. Over the past week, nineteen polls have been carried out in these four states, and the President has been ahead in sixteen of them. A Rasmussen poll in Wisconsin was tied, and two others—both in Iowa—showed Romney with a one-point lead.

That leaves the three states I’ve hitherto had as toss-ups: Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

Virginia: All the indications are it is going to be a squeaker. In the past few days, four polls have been carried out. Obama has been leading in three of them, but in two of these surveys—from NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College and WeAskAmerica, his lead has been just one point. A new Rasmussen poll shows Romney up by two points. The R.C.P. poll of polls shows it virtually tied. (Obama has an advantage of 0.3 per cent.) The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll gave me particular pause. In other battleground states, recent surveys by this pollster have shown Obama with big leads. Another encouraging thing for the Republicans is that there is no early voting in Virginia, which has put a crimp on the Obama campaign’s efforts to get out the vote—efforts that appear to be paying off handsomely in places like Ohio and Nevada.

On balance, though, I think Obama will just sneak out a win. His job-approval rating in the Old Dominion has been edging up. In the Rasmussen survey, it is fifty-one per cent; in the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, it is forty-nine per cent. These aren’t bad numbers. Then there’s his handling of Hurricane Sandy: according to the NBC/WSJ/Marist survey, seven in ten Virginians approve of it. Among some undecided voters, that could be a key factor.

And what I think will ultimately pull Obama over the line is support from minority voters, particularly blacks, who make up a fifth of the electorate. In 2008, a record turnout in African-American areas, such as parts of Virginia Beach, saw Obama to victory. This time around, the enthusiasm won’t be quite as high, but the presence on the Democratic ticket of Tim Kaine, a former governor who is very popular with African-Americans, will also help encourage folks to get out and vote—as will the extensive Obama ground campaign.