The surplus of oil reserves, which weighed on raw material prices for three years, has almost disappeared, but instead of celebrating its victory, the OPEC and Russia are looking for reasons to continue quantitative cuts.

The historic agreement of the OPEC group and other producers, including Russia, known as OPEC+, has achieved impressive results, removing 97% of the surplus. However, the cutback should continue as another important task – stimulating investment in oil and gas production to satisfactory levels, which is still far from being implemented, according to the Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih.

His most important ally, his Russian colleague Alexander Novak, agrees that there is no reason to stop, just because the original purpose of the oil agreement to five-year average has been achieved.

Despite the results achieved, however, OPEC pressure on its own production only becomes stronger.

At a meeting of the oil ministers from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia’s desire for a price of 80 USD per barrel seems to be closer.

During the Jeddah meeting, the ministers made a strong signal of what their intentions were after more than an year of production jams and rising prices. Based on up-to-date market information, they will have a reason to declare a victory and gradually give up their deal, but according to all indications they will continue at least until the end of 2018. And while rising US shale yields remain a source of concern, the key players seem to have set themselves on the immediate benefits of high commodity prices. Saudi Arabia has to cover its expenses and attract investors for the partial sale of the state oil company Aramco. Russia, for its part, enjoys its new role as a key figure in the Middle East, while enjoying greater financial growth than any other in the deal.

The Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak does not exclude ease of production constraints this year, but said it would depend entirely on the market situation. So far, however, OPEC+ has made even deeper cuts, and Saudi Minister Khalid Al-Falih has scrupulously rebuffed countries that do not apply their share of restrictions at the Jeddah Forum.

The OPEC and its allies have increased by up to 49% the contraction of their yields in March from the agreed 1.8 million barrels per day. This is the largest decrease in the group of 24 countries. By comparison, in February the cuts were 38%.

Much of this extra reduction is not intentional, says the International Energy Agency (IEA). The economic crisis and “chronic maladministration” led Venezuela’s production to its lowest levels for decades. At the same time, Angola has also reduced yields due to aging oil wells. For other reasons, they were only temporary – like the abbreviation for maintaining oil fields in Algeria.

The decline in OPEC reserves may continue to deepen due to the worsening economic crisis and the growing likelihood that US President Donald Trump will resume sanctions against Iran.

Yet the ministers have signaled that the redundancies will continue.

“There is capacity for higher prices without disturbing demand”, said Khalid Al-Falih, according to whom oil was twice as high as today, and the world economy has the capacity to absorb them.