Reflecting on a Woeful Leafs Season

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Now that the regular season is over, it’s time for fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs to reflect on the season that was. And, considering the circumstances, it’s doubtful that it can be a happy reflection. On the 13th of March, after defeating the L.A. Kings just over a month ago, the Leafs were comfortably sitting second in the Atlantic division. At that point, they were pretty much a lock to return to the playoffs, and fans were thinking about favourable first round opponents. It was said then that, barring a “historic collapse”, the Leafs would play postseason hockey.

But, this is of course the Toronto Maple Leafs we’re talking about. If there’s any team that can manage to fail spectacularly, it’s them. After beating the Kings, they proceeded to lose 8 straight games(and 12 of their last 14). The Leafs went from one of the top teams in the Eastern conference to the 8th overall draft pick in under a month. If that’s not a historic collapse, then I don’t know what is. If Brian Burke thought the collapse in the 2011-12 season was “like an eighteen wheeler going right off a cliff”, then 2013-14 was an eighteen wheeler falling into an active volcano.

Ridiculous meltdowns are nothing new to us Leafs fans. It pains me to mention the incredible loss in game seven of the first playoff round last year to Boston, where a 4-1 third period lead was turned into a 5-4 overtime loss. However, this one seemed different. Leafs fans came into this season with cautious optimism. Their young team had gotten some playoff experience, and matured another year. For the first time in a while, the enthusiasm and hope surrounding a new campaign weren’t completely unfounded. There were definitely some times when it looked like hope was justified. And then, the eight-game losing streak happened.

Nobody could have predicted the collapse in Boston. However (although it wasn’t predicted that they’d lose eight straight), many of those who are familiar with advanced analytics knew from the start of the season the Leafs were due for regression. It’s unreasonable to think a team can sustainably ride outrageous shooting percentages, a hot top line and extremely high- (dare I say Vezina?) caliber goaltending to success. Getting outshot by a huge margin every single game is just unacceptable. The Leafs gave up the most shots EVER in an 82-game season! No hockey team that can call itself great is unable to outshoot bottom-feeding teams like Buffalo and Florida.

When GM Dave Nonis was making moves last summer, many people were screaming out for him to acquire some defensive help. He failed to do that, and thus the Leafs had one of the worst groups of blueliners in the NHL. Had they not been buoyed this year by stellar goaltending from Jonathan Bernier (and, for the most part, James Reimer), I’d wager the Leafs would be picking in the top five in this year’s draft.

It’s also becoming increasingly obvious that Randy Carlyle is not the right man to coach the Maple Leafs. There’s clearly something wrong with his defensive system. He’s demonstrated an unwillingness to change his philosophy or opinion. If a player gets in his doghouse, he refuses to cut them any slack (see Grabovski, Mikhal and MacArthur, Clarke). This year his victims of choice have been Reimer (who’s been unfairly thrown under the bus multiple times) and Jake Gardiner (who was arguably one of the team’s best defencemen this year). In my opinion, a small portion of the blame for David Clarkson’s horrible year can be pinned on Carlyle’s system Unfortunately, I think the time has come for the Leafs to part ways with their head coach.

I don’t want to sound too negative, but this season was a disaster for Toronto. There were absolutely some bright spots, though. Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk were one of the best lines in the entire league for much of the year. Bernier looks to be starter material. Rookie defenceman Morgan Rielly appears to be developing into an elite talent.

So, where do the Leafs stand going forward? As such a young team, logic suggests that they’ll mature and improve going into next season. However, some changes will definitely have to be made if they plan on getting back to the playoffs. Making Brendan Shanahan team president is a good start. But Carlyle has no future with this club. Something has to be done about the abysmal defensive core. To start, they’ll need a top-pairing d-man to play with Dion Phaneuf. Another top-4 would be nice, as well.

Are the Leafs cursed? No, that’s silly. But they have definitely shocked a lot of people with their awful performances of late. They have some very good pieces in place – Kessel, van Riemsdyk, and Bernier, to name a few. But a shake-up in both coaching and defensive personnel will be necessary for this team to progress.

