The disruption at the Channel Tunnel between the UK and France is one of many migration crises which a warmer world will worsen

Migration problems may be set to hot up (Image: Philippe Huguen/AFP/Getty)

The scenes could be from a dystopian sci-fi movie: thousands of people attempting to cross a fortified border, so desperately that some die trying. But the footage of migrants attempting to use the Channel Tunnel to reach the UK from Calais in France is sadly all too real.

Similar scenes are all too common, from the Mediterranean to the Americas to South-East Asia.


The UK prime minister, David Cameron, has acknowledged that hunger, poverty and war is what drives many to seek better lives elsewhere. “We have to deal with the problem at source,” he said this week. “That means trying to stabilise the countries from which they come.”

But the lack of action to avert extreme global warming on the part of the UK and other rich nations will only lead to more instability and greatly increase numbers fleeing poorer regions.

Climate change may already be driving migration. Some argue that global warming played a part in the severe drought in Syria from 2006 to 2011, forcing more than a million people off farms and into cities in search of work. This added to the instability and unrest that led to war. Some of those fleeing that conflict are now trying to reach the UK.

There is much debate about what part, if any, climate change has played in specific crises, but the big picture is clearer.

“Climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources such as food and water. These impacts are already occurring, and the scope, scale, and intensity… are projected to increase…” That’s the view of the US Department of Defense.

Egypt is a prime example of a country where such upheaval may occur. Its key cities and fertile land are largely on the Nile Delta, much of which will vanish beneath the waves over the coming centuries.

In the city of Alexandria alone, just a 0.5-metre rise in sea level – likely well before the year 2100 – would displace around 1.5 million people and result in 200,000 job losses, according to a 2004 study. It seems all too plausible that the situation in Egypt could deteriorate to the point that many people try to enter Europe.

Just how many people will be forced to seek a better life elsewhere as a result of global warming is impossible to predict, because so much depends on what we do to mitigate climate change and adapt to it. The leaders of rich countries claim they are doing plenty, but they are not.

Even if countries stick to their emission reduction promises – the UK, for one, is not on course to meet its targets – global temperature rise will still soar past 2 °C. And illegal migration will soar along with the temperature.