Usually when it comes to elections, the most interesting question is who will win? In Spain, it has become how will the country be governed?

Spain heads to the polls on Sunday for regional elections in 13 of the country’s 17 autonomous communities (Andalusia, Catalonia, Galicia, and the Basque Country having separate electoral cycles), for municipal elections to elect councillors on all 8,116 local councils, and for votes in the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla.

The votes will be a useful prequel to a general election that will be called later this year. Since the last election in 2011, Spain’s political landscape has changed dramatically.

The country’s two main parties, the centre-right People’s Party (PP) and the main opposition Socialist Party (PSOE), traditionally win a combined 75-80% of the vote. They are now polling below 50%. At the European Parliament elections last year they won 49.1% of the vote compared with 80.9% in 2009.

The financial crisis, economic hardship and a series of political scandals have fuelled the emergence of new political forces and left the electorate fragmented like never before.

The local and regional elections will serve not only to measure the state of the governing PP and the opposition PSOE but, just as critically, assess at the ballot box the strength of the parties that have most benefitted from the collapse of the big two: Podemos – a leftwing, anti-austerity party, which was founded in 2014, won five seats in the EU elections a few months later, and is now polling on 18.5% (and has even topped several surveys) – and the liberal Ciudadanos.

The latter aren’t a new party. They were founded in 2006 in Catalonia with the primary purpose of opposing Catalan nationalism, but since announcing earlier this year that they would field candidates nationwide, support has skyrocketed to above 15%, according to most surveys.



However, a reminder: Spain’s polls don’t have the finest of records. If we add to this already shaky reputation the complexities of an unprecedented multi-party system and the fact that 30-45% of voters claim still to be undecided (double the 2011 levels in many regions), the outcome in many of Sunday’s votes is highly uncertain.

However, what is clear from the polls is that in all the regional contests neither the PP or the PSOE are likely to win many outright majorities.

Sunday’s elections will be a critical test for Spain’s broken two-party system and how the formation of minority administrations, alliances or coalitions between different parties, or even possibly a grand coalition to lock out the emergent players, might all work in practice.

Four years ago, the PSOE lost control of six regions – Aragon, Asturias (which it won back in 2012), the Balearic Islands, Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura.

The socialist party is expected to be reconfirmed in Asturias, but beyond the autonomous community in the north-west of Spain, the PSOE is unlikely to recapture its largest party status anywhere except possibly Extremadura. This may well be evidence that when push comes to shove it will be Pedro Sánchez’s party that suffers most by having its vote squeezed by others (as indeed was the case in last year’s EU elections).

The governing PP goes into the election defending 10 regions. In 2011, Mariano Rajoy’s party won about 46.1% of the vote across the 13 regions, not far off the 44.6% the prime minister’s party then went on to win at the general election a few months later. While the PSOE won 28.7%, compared with 28.8% at the general election.

Although the PM’s party will probably continue to be in a position to lead the governments of most Spanish regions, the PP looks set to lose many of its overall majorities. The composition and stability of the various administrations will ultimately depend on the ability to do deals.

Usually when it comes to elections, the most interesting question is who will win? In Spain, it has become how will the country be governed?

The Andalusian parliamentary elections, which were held in March, are a good example of Spain’s new political dynamics. The PSOE, which has won all elections in the region since 1977 (except in 2012), emerged as the largest party, but with just 35.4% of the vote recorded its worst ever result in Andalusia. The PP lost 17 of its 50 seats and saw its vote share drop from 40.7% to 26.7%. Meanwhile, Podemos (with 15% of the vote and 15 seats) and Ciudadanos (with nine seats and 9.5% of the vote) emerged as the new parliament’s kingmakers.

Blocked by all opposition parties, Socialist leader Susana Díaz has so far been unable to win the investiture vote needed to install a government.

On Sunday, Spaniards will also be voting in all 8,116 municipalities. The trend at a local council level is just as fragmented.

In Madrid and Valencia, where the PP won respectively 50% and 52.5% of the vote in 2011, the party is now polling on 30-35%, which would still make it the largest party in both cities, albeit short of an outright majority.

To add to the uncertainty, the debate over Catalan independence continues to play in the background. The region’s capital, Barcelona, also holds municipal elections on Sunday. The pro-independence parties were hoping to make the vote, and regional elections scheduled for later this year, a de facto referendum. However, Barcelona en Comú, a new grassroots alliance that includes Podemos, may well top the polls.