In a 2005 academic paper on the N.F.L. draft, the economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler concluded that lower picks were more economically valuable than higher ones, partly because of the salary difference. “In all my years of studying market efficiency,” Thaler, a University of Chicago professor, wrote in his recent memoir, “Misbehaving,” “this is the most blatant violation I have ever seen.”

In my analysis, I measured the production of first-round picks from the 2004-2005 season through 2013-2014, using Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) and Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Let’s call the combination of these metrics “basketball output.” Because rookie contracts last two years — with team options in the third and fourth years — I assessed players’ performance over their first three seasons.

The highest picks generally yield the best players — that’s no surprise. Then there’s a steep production decline from No. 1 to No. 10; on average, No. 10 has generated 68 percent of the top pick’s output. Outside the top 10, the output curve flattens.

Even in the top 10, the No. 2 and No. 9 picks demonstrate that you can’t always expect a better player with a premium pick. The No. 2 slot — where the unanticipated sluggishness of Darko Milicic, Hasheem Thabeet and Emeka Okafor weighs down the brilliance of Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge — has yielded a 14.5 PER. By comparison, the No. 9 pick — buoyed by the rapid ascent of Amar’e Stoudemire, Joakim Noah, Andre Iguodala and Andre Drummond — has amassed a 15.5 PER.

As you progress through the first round, salaries decline faster than output does. While the No. 30 pick has generated output equal to 51 percent of the No. 1 pick’s, No. 30 earns just 20 percent of No. 1’s salary. That mismatch applies throughout the first round, with the exception of the top three picks. In other words, relative to the top three picks, the rest of the first round is underpaid. Aaron Barzilai, former director of analytics with the Philadelphia 76ers, has published compelling work on that at 82games.com.