Sen. Rob Portman (Ohio) is a bright spot. He’s running more than 10 points above the top of the ticket in some polls. (Clinton is up four in Ohio, but Portman leads by eight in the latest Monmouth poll.) He has drawn a lackluster opponent in former governor Ted Strickland and has carved out his own message based on his voting record. He has endorsed Trump but also created a separate identity with strong support from organized labor. Portman’s lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average is 6.4 points. If not for his success, the Senate majority would almost surely be lost.

The three incumbents in solid blue states — Mark Kirk (Ill.), Pat Toomey (Pa.) and Ron Johnson (Wis.) — are all trailing. Toomey is the best situated of the three. He is generally within the margin of error in polling and trails his opponent by 2.6 points in the RCP average. Unfortunately for all of them, none of the three states is likely to be in play in the presidential race. That means Democrats can shift resources to the Senate contests. It may be too much to ask incumbent Republicans to find enough ticket-splitters in blue states to overcome the Trump drag.

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As for purple states: Marco Rubio (Fla.) is holding his own despite Trump’s shabby numbers ( down 4.5 points in the RCP average) in the state. He is nearly 6 points ahead of his most likely opponent (Rep. Pat Murphy). Along with Portman, Rubio is doing his part to keep GOP hopes alive to hold the Senate. Polling has been all over the map for Kelly Ayotte (N.H.); she’s either up 9 or down 10 since the end of June.

Now we get to a red state. North Carolina’s race is a statistical dead heat in many polls, although Richard Burr should pull it out. He too is going to face headwinds in a state Clinton now leads (but within the margin of error).

Meanwhile, the sole pickup opportunity for the GOP rests with Rep. Joe Heck (R-Nev.), who is running dead even with his Democratic opponent while Clinton leads in the state within the margin of error.

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Up to this point, things don’t look so bad if Burr holds on. Wins by Rubio and Portman would cancel out losses in two of the three blue states (Johnson and Kirk). Even if Toomey and Ayotte, along with Kirk and Johnson, lose (not a given by any means), Republicans are down a net three if they can pick up Nevada. In short, Portman, Rubio and Heck victories keep the Senate in GOP hands — by a whisker.

But what about Indiana? Former governor and senator Evan Bayh (D) is up seven points in the only recent independent poll against Rep. Todd Young. (A poll from the Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, released Monday showing Bayh up by 18 points should not be considered reliable.) Republicans are claiming Bayh is not really an Indiana resident. (A similar issue helped doom former Republican senator Richard Lugar).

Could the GOP still hold the Senate if it loses Indiana, where Trump is actually ahead (the only state with a competitive Senate race for which that can be said)? Yes, but it gets tough if Indiana is lost and/or any of the red states (North Carolina or Indiana or two we haven’t talked about — Arizona and Missouri) fall. If Bayh wins, the GOP likely is going to need Ayotte or Toomey to win.

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As you have no doubt noticed, the Senate contests in 2016 bear an uncanny resemblance to the 2012 races — except the other party has a bevy of pickup chances. In 2012, the GOP at times had as many as 10 seats in play, making it that much easier to shift resources to better candidates while forcing the Democrats to defend all over. Now it’s the GOP’s turn.