What does this suggest for the Harper-led Conservatives? Let’s look at the possible impact of the most reliable of these three simple indicators: the unemployment rate. The recently reported 7 per cent unemployment rate was actually quite good news for their chances in 2015. Looking at other elections where the unemployment rate sat near 7 per cent, we can notice that governments more or less held on to their vote from the previous election. Looking just at elections where unemployment was between 6 and 8 per cent, we can see that incumbent performance ranges from a 6.5 per cent loss to a 2 per cent gain in the popular vote. Taking the average of these votes suggests a slight decline, perhaps one or two per cent, in the Conservative vote in 2015.



However, opinion polls taken in the last month suggest that the Conservatives are polling at around 31 per cent nationally, almost 9 per cent lower than their performance in 2011. What might account for this difference from the economic forecast? If you are a Conservative optimist, you might believe this means that the Conservatives have good room for growth going forward. If, instead, you think that the polls are a good indication of public sentiment towards the government, it might suggest that other factors (such as dissatisfaction with non-economic aspects of Conservative performance, Trudeaumania 2.0, or simply just fatigue with the incumbent government) might be bringing levels of Conservative support down.

Of course, while economic indicators can influence election results, they do not alone determine election outcomes. Public opinion and election results are complex phenomena that are difficult to model correctly. Many factors can change for the Conservatives between now and October 2015. Public fatigue with the incumbent government might grow worse, the election campaign might go exceptionally well or poorly, and the most dastardly factor of all might even make itself known, rendering even the most talented election psychic prediction-less: the spectre of unexpected events.

If you met the federal party leaders on the campaign trail, what would you ask them? Post your question to Facebook, or Tweet or Vine it with #VoteCountdown. Take a look at what readers have already suggested.

