NFL Draft Preview: The QB Haves And Haves Not – AFC East

As the master Bill Belichick would say, “We’re onto the AFC East”. It makes sense that I would quote the New England coach considering his Patriots have dominated this division for the last decade, and were last season’s Super Bowl champions. Since 2003 his team has won the division in 12 of the 13 seasons, while winning three Super Bowls, all with Tom Brady as his quarterback. Suffice it to say, the other three teams have some work to do. The good news for the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets, as well as fans of parity and balance, lies in the moves those teams made during the offseason in creating more competitive balance for the division title, at least on paper. LeSean McCoy (Bills), Darrelle Revis (Jets), and N’damukong Suh (Dolphins) are three elite players who the Pats will have to deal with two times a season. Add in new coaches Rex Ryan (Bills) and Todd Bowles (Jets) and the AFC East looks to have some exciting storylines going into 2015.

Some information on the stats being used, specifically DYAR, DVOA and EY. DYAR refers to Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or the value of a quarterback’s performance compared to a replacement level player and adjusted for situation and the defense. DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average or the value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. And finally EY is Effective Yards, or when compared to their actual yards, if the QB’s EY is higher than their actual yards, then said QB played better than standard stats would normally indicate. The inverse is true if the players EY is lower than their actual yards.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: None and 50th

Projected starting QB’s: Matt Cassell, age 32 or EJ Manual, age 25

I didn’t go into the stats of either Cassell or Manuel from last season because neither of these guys played enough to make those stats significant. Of course, the reason they didn’t play enough was due to the fact that when they were playing, they were not very good. Manuel was 38th in DVOA in his limited time last season, and had Cassell played enough, he’d have been at the bottom of the NFL in all statistical categories. In short, the Bills are not in a good place at QB for the 2015 season. Cassell was signed during free agency to at least compete for the starting spot, if not with the expectation that the job will be his. New coach Rex Ryan was not around when they drafted EJ Manuel with the 16th pick in the first round of the 2013 draft, so he has nothing invested in his future. The bright news, whoever is at QB will have some nice weapons to use; receivers Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Percy Harvin, new running back LeSean McCoy as well as newly signed tight end Charles Clay. Who starts at QB for the Bills is anyone’s guess, this will likely be a training camp battle that goes into the final weeks of pre-season.

Fortunately for the Bills, they’ve built a pretty solid team around their shaky QB situation. They’ve got good to very good talent at all of the skill positions and boast a defense that was 2nd in DVOA last season. New head coach Rex Ryan is best known for turning out very good defenses and the BIlls prowess defensively should be expected to continue. Due to their trade up in last year’s draft, they are without a first round pick this year, and therefore will not be in the market for either of the top two quarterbacks this year. With the 50th pick overall, 18th in the second round, it would make sense for them to target an interior offensive lineman. Rex Ryan coined the term ground and pound, they traded for star running back LeSean McCoy, and they were only 28th in DVOA in total rushing last year; additionally, their offensive line was ranked 26th in total offensive line efficiency, as well as pass protection efficiency. It makes the most sense to upgrade on the interior offensive line, it fits what the team wants to do and it was a big weakness last year. Look for AJ Cann of South Carolina or Tre Jackson from Florida State for the Bills at #50

Miami Dolphins

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: #14 and #47

Projected starting QB: Ryan Tannehill, age 26 (12th in DYAR, 18th in DVOA, 3,713 yards, 4,178 EY, 27 TD’s, 12 ints)

Somewhat of a breakout season for the 8th selection of the 2012 draft by the Dolphins. In 2013, Tannehill was 26th in DYAR and 27th by DVOA; his 2014 season ranked higher than quarterbacks with arguably better reputations at the position—Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson, and Jay Cutler to name a few. This improvement means more for Tannehill than it would for other 3rd year players at QB; remember he only started one season at quarterback for Texas A&M, and was a converted wide receiver. It is understandable that his learning curve would be steeper than a QB who has played the position his entire career. The Dolphins have to be extremely encouraged by what they saw from their young QB in 2014 and have the realistic expectation that he will at least repeat, if not exceed, his previous season

The Dolphins made, perhaps literally, the biggest move in free agency, signing defensive tackle N’Damukong Suh from the Detroit Lions. He will team with pass rushing specialist Cameron Wake to form one of the most intimidating defensive lines in the NFL. While the interior line of their defense is taken care of, they have needs at corner and linebacker, and if Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes, seen as the best corner in the draft, is there for them at #14, he will be hard to pass up. However, given the previous paragraph on the leap Tannehill took last season, the Dolphins have to give serious consideration to wide receiver in the first round. They traded for speed receiver Kenny Stills, formerly of the Saints, and they also drafted Jarvis Landry in the second round last year, but neither of those guys is a big #1 type receiver that teams look for. If Davante Parker out of Louisville is there for them, I’m assuming Amari Cooper and Kevin White will be long gone, I think they have to take him. Also, Jaelen Strong out of Arizona State fits the mold, but #14 might be considered too high for him. The Dolphins would be able to address corner or linebacker in the second round, but when there is a chance to significantly upgrade at receiver for the Dolphins, given the makeup of their team, I consider that the best bet.

New England Patriots

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 32nd and 64rd

Projected starting QB: Tom Brady, Age 37 (6th in DYAR, 6th in DVOA, 3,950 yds, 4,839 EY, 33 TD’s, 9 Ints)

Breaking: Tom Brady is good at football. The four time Super Bowl winning quarterback continues to put up top numbers despite his advance in age and the lack of a top flight wide receiver, Rob Gronkowski notwithstanding. Interestingly, prior to his otherworldly 2007 season, when he had a certain Randy Moss at his disposal, he mostly hovered around the top 10 of QB’s, good but not great. Since the historic season, he’s been a top 5 QB in both DVOA and DYAR year after year, and as I mentioned to start the column, his teams have won the division 12 out of the last 13 seasons. The guy wins and he wins all the time. Some time soon father time will catch up to him, as he does to everyone, but it’s hard to predict when that will be and I wouldn’t bet on it being next season.

I’m going to project the Pats draft pick under the assumption they will keep it, but we know that they will not, because they never do and frankly it’s Bill Belichick so we just accept that he knows what he’s doing. The team did lose corners Darrelle Revis (Jets) and Brandon Browner (Saints) so it is likely they will target the corner position at some point in the draft. Byron Jones of nearby UCONN and PJ Williams (FSU) are possibilities at #32 for the Pats should they elect to target a corner early. They also lost running backs Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen to free agency and given the depth at running back in this draft, could make that move in the second or later rounds. Tevin Coleman from Indiana would be a good fit for them as well as Duke Johnson from the University of Miami, who could fill the Shane Vereen role. Having said all that, expect a trade and a pick of a guy I haven’t heard of who will become an All Pro and be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

New York Jet

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 6th and 37th

Projected starting QB: Geno Smith, age 24 (32nd in DYAR, 31st in DVOA, 2,328 yds, 1,989 EY, 13 TDs, 13 Ints)

I realize that the Jets acquired Ryan Fitzpatrick in the offseason who could also start at quarterback for them; he was, afterall, 17th in DYAR and 13th in DVOA last season. But, I think the Jets will kick the tires on Geno one last time to see if they can get the most out of the former West Virginia quarterback. White is only 24 years old, he’s shown some flashes of solid play during his first two seasons—and when I say “flashes” I mean he has a good drive here and there. I say that somewhat in jest, but he did, in fact, end last season with a victory at the Miami Dolphins with 358 yards and 3 TD’s and a perfect rating of 158.3. While he was not great by any means in 2014, he did improve on his 2013 numbers when he was one of the worst quarterbacks in football. There is no question he has talent; he’s won 11 games in his first two seasons while cutting down on his interceptions from 21 to 13 in his second year, coupled with the fact that Geno will have new receiver Brandon Marshall to throw to and a new offensive coordinator in Chan Gailey, this is a make or break year for him. Perhaps with a fresh start in not just Gailey, but new head coach Todd Bowles, he can realize the potential he had coming out of college.

Having said all of that, if Oregon QB Marcus Mariota is sitting there at #6 in the first round, the Jets would have to give serious consideration to drafting him. For comparison’s sake, he’s a better version of Geno. They both played in the spread in college, Mariota is seen to have the stronger arm, is the better runner, and is also the slightly bigger athlete. His arrival would also put some energy into the organization and this new coaching staff; things have been a little stale in New York the last few years. In the event they passed on Mariota, or he is not available, the Jets are likely to look at outside linebacker/pass rushing help in the first round. They’ve been linked to all of the top pass rushers, Vic Beasely, Shane Ray, Randy Gregory, Bud Dupree and Dante Fowler. It is certain one of those guys will be available when the Jets pick is on the clock; they will be getting a very good player, whoever they decide to take. The Jets added corners Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrinne in the off-season; the cornerback position is set. They drafted safety Calvin Pryor in the first round last year and could use another to solidify the back end of their defense. Damarious Randall out of Arizona State, who Mike Mayock recently rated as his top safety, ahead of Alabama’s Landon Collins, is likely to be available at #37 for the Jets and would be a solid addition to the Todd Bowles’ defense.