If you look beyond the international shouting match that began on Monday after Israel botched its handling of a Turkey-sponsored aid flotilla bound for Gaza, well, things look pretty shocking. Just because at least nine people are dead — Western casualties included — doesn't mean the boat raid itself is what "has the makings of a huge international fracas." And just because the Turkish foreign minister says "this attack is like 9/11" — which it isn't — doesn't mean Tel Aviv will take its eyes off what the Israelis actually perceive to be the larger threat: Iran's nuclear weapons.

Sure, President Obama probably nudged his ambassador to pull the trigger on the UN's head-spinning condemnation of Israel this morning. But in the days just before the attack, the UN was also finally reporting that Iran has sufficient enriched uranium for two nuclear devices, just as Israel was provocatively parking two diesel subs packed with nuclear cruise missiles off Iran's coast.

If you read between the lines, then, I would say Turkey got itself formally admitted into this matchless rivalry just in time.

Trust me: Ankara has about as much interest in the Palestinians as the rest of the Muslim regimes in the region; protesting their plight is a means to larger but self-serving ends. Turkey is pursuing a policy of "zero problems" with its neighbors, all right, but elevating its regional influence requires that Ankara not be trumped by Tehran's successful nuclear bid. And that's why Turkey is now committed to demonizing its old ally across the Mediterranean.

"Declaration of war," you say? Allow me to unspin those heads a bit: Israel's three-year-old blockade of the Gaza Strip was already preapproved for official UN censure, thanks to last September's Goldstone Report. The next logical step for Israel's critics was to place it on the international front burner, dislodging the UN Security Council's regional fixation on Tehran's nuclear enrichment program. An aid flotilla loaded with one ringer (i.e., the sixth and largest ship populated with committed activists spoiling for a violent — and videotaped — showdown) was a brilliantly timed move of passive-aggression on Turkey's part. But no fight equals no media coverage, so the flotilla ignored Tel Aviv's demands that the relief supplies be off-loaded in an Israeli port for inspection and subsequent shipment to Gaza. And while the first five ships submitted peacefully to the boarding inspection parties, the sixth exploded in violent resistance — as planned.

Turkey's deputy prime minister called the raid "a dark stain on the history of humanity." So now Ankara has its bloody shirt, which will be used — once Tehran inevitably announces the weaponization of its nukes — to justify Turkey's rapid reach for the same. Just like Tehran cannot openly rationalize its bid for regional supremacy vis-à-vis archrival Saudi Arabia, Turkey requires an appropriate villain for its nuclear morality play. Anybody watching the deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations over the past year knew that some cause célèbre was in the works. Suddenly, if perhaps on purpose, Turkey can claim that — despite its efforts to broker a non-nuclear peace in the region (including a recent enrichment deal engineered with Brazil) — it needs its own deterrent against Israel's nuclear arsenal, too.

Checkmate, Turkey.

And as for the Obama administration's dream of enlisting Turkey's UN Security Council vote for further sanctions against Iran, the White House is missing the larger point: Turkey is uninterested in punishing Israel. Turkey is interested in power. The White House, in pursuing Obama's naïve dream of a "world without nuclear weapons," is chasing pawns around the board.

But, above all, remember this is a three-dimensional, multisided chess match: Iran duping the world with its nuclear threats against Israel; Turkey now set to justify its own bid against this "rogue" regime; and the Saudis yet to make any significant moves against their Shiite nemesis. But you've gotta watch out for those Saudis — knowing their love for misdirection and duplicitous dealings, I would expect them to simultaneously squeeze the Obama administration for more military sales, continue secretly cooperating with Pakistan on its own nuclear program (just like Turkey), and quietly collaborate with Israel on its planned air strikes against Iran.

Prepared to be shocked — shocked! — at the "stunning revelations" to come.

Esquire contributing editor Thomas P.M. Barnett is the author of .

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