Revised as of 09/15/20, through Week 1.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE DAL 0-1 6.0% 8.3 4.9% 7.5% 11.4% 16.6% 2.8% 3.9% 4.7% 40.4% 11.4% 51.8% -4.1% PHI 0-1 1.9% 7.6 3.4% 4.9% 7.3% 10.7% 3.3% 4.3% 5.0% 26.3% 12.6% 38.8% -12.9% WAS 1-0 -15.3% 7.0 1.8% 3.0% 5.0% 8.7% 2.3% 3.3% 4.2% 18.6% 9.8% 28.4% 14.3% NYG 0-1 -9.5% 6.6 1.3% 2.3% 4.2% 6.9% 2.0% 3.0% 3.9% 14.8% 8.8% 23.5% -8.5%

NFC North

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE GB 1-0 -0.7% 8.4 5.9% 7.6% 10.4% 9.9% 4.6% 5.5% 6.3% 33.7% 16.4% 50.1% 10.3% CHI 1-0 -2.8% 8.3 5.8% 7.2% 9.2% 9.3% 4.9% 5.7% 6.5% 31.5% 17.0% 48.5% 12.5% DET 0-1 1.1% 7.6 2.8% 4.5% 6.0% 6.0% 4.3% 5.5% 6.1% 19.3% 15.9% 35.2% -10.3% MIN 0-1 -0.2% 7.2 2.0% 3.3% 4.8% 5.4% 3.6% 4.8% 5.8% 15.5% 14.2% 29.7% -8.3%

NFC South

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE NO 1-0 22.2% 10.6 28.1% 18.5% 12.3% 7.6% 7.4% 5.6% 4.6% 66.4% 17.6% 84.0% 6.0% TB 0-1 7.1% 8.3 4.9% 5.0% 4.2% 3.0% 11.3% 9.0% 8.2% 17.1% 28.5% 45.6% -7.6% ATL 0-1 2.9% 7.4 2.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 5.2% 6.6% 7.0% 12.6% 18.8% 31.5% -12.2% CAR 0-1 -13.1% 5.9 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 2.4% 3.2% 3.9% 3.9% 9.5% 13.4% -1.8%

NFC West

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE SEA 1-0 9.7% 9.7 15.3% 12.0% 7.0% 3.5% 14.2% 10.6% 8.1% 37.8% 32.8% 70.6% 15.0% LAR 1-0 3.9% 8.9 9.4% 8.5% 5.3% 2.9% 12.1% 10.5% 9.0% 26.1% 31.6% 57.7% 7.5% ARI 1-0 0.5% 8.8 8.1% 7.6% 5.2% 3.3% 11.7% 10.3% 8.8% 24.1% 30.8% 54.9% 10.8% SF 0-1 3.9% 7.8 3.5% 3.7% 2.9% 1.9% 7.9% 8.3% 8.1% 12.0% 24.3% 36.3% -10.7%

AFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE NE 1-0 3.0% 8.8 7.3% 9.6% 11.8% 16.5% 4.4% 5.3% 5.9% 45.2% 15.6% 60.8% 12.2% BUF 1-0 -0.7% 8.4 5.7% 7.8% 9.9% 14.1% 4.7% 5.6% 5.9% 37.4% 16.3% 53.7% 7.8% NYJ 0-1 -14.0% 6.3 0.6% 1.3% 2.6% 4.9% 1.7% 3.0% 4.1% 9.5% 8.8% 18.3% -9.5% MIA 0-1 -17.3% 6.1 0.5% 1.2% 2.0% 4.2% 1.8% 2.8% 3.6% 7.9% 8.1% 16.0% -9.8%

AFC North

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE BAL 1-0 18.9% 10.3 22.8% 14.5% 9.8% 6.6% 13.4% 7.9% 6.3% 53.7% 27.6% 81.3% 12.4% PIT 1-0 10.6% 9.8 14.0% 10.9% 8.0% 5.3% 15.1% 9.7% 7.8% 38.3% 32.5% 70.9% 8.5% CLE 0-1 -12.0% 6.6 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 4.4% 5.2% 6.0% 4.5% 15.5% 20.0% -17.3% CIN 0-1 -15.5% 6.0 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0% 3.2% 3.8% 3.4% 9.0% 12.4% -8.7%

AFC South

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE TEN 1-0 0.9% 8.7 6.8% 8.7% 10.6% 9.0% 6.1% 7.0% 7.4% 35.2% 20.5% 55.7% 5.7% IND 0-1 4.3% 8.1 3.7% 5.7% 7.5% 7.5% 5.7% 7.1% 7.3% 24.4% 20.0% 44.4% -15.6% JAX 1-0 -7.1% 7.9 3.3% 5.0% 7.2% 7.3% 4.9% 6.1% 7.2% 22.8% 18.1% 40.9% 13.7% HOU 0-1 -2.3% 7.3 1.8% 3.4% 5.7% 6.7% 3.3% 4.8% 6.1% 17.7% 14.2% 31.9% -7.8%

AFC West

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE KC 1-0 18.8% 10.3 21.9% 17.2% 11.3% 6.6% 9.8% 8.3% 6.2% 56.9% 24.3% 81.2% 1.9% LAC 1-0 -2.2% 8.4 5.2% 5.7% 4.6% 3.5% 11.0% 10.2% 9.2% 19.0% 30.4% 49.4% 8.7% LV 1-0 -3.3% 8.2 4.1% 5.1% 4.5% 3.5% 8.7% 9.2% 8.2% 17.3% 26.1% 43.5% 8.4% DEN 0-1 -7.5% 6.6 0.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 3.2% 4.6% 5.1% 6.7% 12.9% 19.6% -10.6%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

Reaching the Conference Championship Game

Winning the Conference Championship Game

Winning the Super Bowl

Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0 NO 43.8% 28.1% 16.5% 0.3% BAL 37.2% 22.5% 12.8% 0.2% KC 37.4% 22.1% 12.6% 0.2% SEA 24.8% 12.8% 6.3% 0.1% PIT 24.1% 12.7% 6.3% 0.1% LAR 16.1% 7.6% 3.5% 0.0% NE 16.6% 7.5% 3.5% 0.0% DAL 15.5% 7.3% 3.4% 0.0% ARI 13.6% 6.3% 3.0% 0.0% TB 12.0% 6.1% 2.8% 0.0% TEN 14.7% 6.4% 2.8% 0.0% BUF 13.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.0% GB 12.6% 5.6% 2.5% 0.0% IND 11.5% 5.2% 2.3% 0.0% CHI 11.2% 4.8% 2.0% 0.0% PHI 9.6% 4.3% 2.0% 0.0% SF 8.8% 3.9% 1.9% 0.0% LAC 10.3% 4.3% 1.9% 0.0% DET 8.5% 3.8% 1.7% 0.0% LV 9.1% 3.7% 1.5% 0.0% ATL 7.2% 3.3% 1.5% 0.0% MIN 6.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.0% JAX 8.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.0% HOU 6.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.0% NYG 3.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% WAS 4.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% DEN 3.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% CLE 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% NYJ 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% CAR 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% CIN 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% MIA 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick CAR 11.0% 40.7% CIN 10.9% 40.4% MIA 10.7% 39.4% NYJ 8.8% 35.3% CLE 7.1% 30.4% NYG 6.8% 30.1% DEN 5.8% 26.9% WAS 5.2% 26.2% MIN 3.6% 19.3% HOU 3.2% 17.6% DET 3.1% 17.4% ATL 2.6% 16.4% PHI 2.3% 14.8% JAX 2.0% 13.7% SF 1.8% 12.6% IND 1.7% 11.8% LV 1.5% 11.0% DAL 1.5% 10.8% CHI 1.5% 10.7% TB 1.5% 10.1% GB 1.3% 10.0% LAC 1.2% 9.8% BUF 1.0% 8.4% TEN 1.0% 7.4% ARI 0.8% 7.2% NE 0.7% 6.3% LAR 0.7% 5.7% SEA 0.3% 2.9% PIT 0.3% 2.9% KC 0.1% 1.4% BAL 0.1% 1.3% NO 0.1% 1.2%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.