Mount Agung’s rumblings have prompted a mass exodus, leaving the future even more uncertain in a region so reliant on tourism

Tourist hotspots on the Indonesian holiday island of Bali have turned to virtual ghost towns as residents and visitors clear out en masse in response to the looming threat of Mount Agung erupting.

Bali volcano: will Mount Agung erupt and what happens if it does? Read more

In Tulamben, a small fishing village on Bali’s east coast within the officially designated 7.5-mile (12km) danger zone, all hotels have shut down and there was not a single tourist in sight on Friday. A message on a blackboard outside an empty cafe said “pray for us”.

Bali has been on edge since last week, when the threat level from the volcano was raised to maximum and hundreds of volcanic earthquakes began to rattle the area on a daily basis.

“Tulamben is empty now,” said Made Pasaka, a dive instructor, squinting as he looked up at Bali’s highest peak. “The last time there was an eruption they said it lasted one year and we can’t imagine that. If it is the same again what are we going to do? We need to have a plan B.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Farmers tend their crops near Amed on Friday, as steam rises from Mount Agung. Photograph: Darren Whiteside/Reuters

About 20 minutes down the road in Amed, more than 180 hotels have emptied of tourists.

“Everything is cancelled … some people are saying maybe, but then when it comes to the day they cancel, so there are no people,” said Sarah Laight, a British hotel investor.



In the past week several governments, including in the UK, Australia and Singapore have issued travel advisories, cautioning travellers that volcanic activity could interfere with their plans.

In the event of an eruption and the possible closure of Ngurah Rai airport due to resulting ash, the authorities in Bali have prepared for flights to be diverted to 10 airports across Indonesia.

Laight estimated there were about 20 tourists left in Amed, a situation that would have a huge impact on the local economy if it went on much longer.



For now, some in Amed are less worried about the volcano than they are about the bule (foreigners) leaving. “The people from the whole of the Amed area that work in tourism, which is thousands of people, probably from today forward they don’t have a paycheck,” Laight said.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A man prays with Mount Agung in the background. Photograph: Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images

While Bali’s busiest areas appear normal, Laight, whose hotel opened 14 years ago, was worried about the impact of sudden mass unemployment.

“If some of these people get overwhelmed with the debt and the banks, I don’t know what the banks will do for them, if they will hold the interest, or the payments,” she said. “Probably everyone has a loan for a motorbike, all the drivers have car loans, and then they are going to start getting stressed.”



At a community meeting in Amed on Friday people discussed a “what if” scenario – the stockpiles of water, food, masks, medical and generators that might be needed in the event of an eruption.

There are more than 120 active volcanoes in Indonesia, which perilously straddles the “ring of fire” – an area along the basin of the Pacific Ocean prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity.



Volcanologists say the current seismological levels – the hundreds of internal earthquakes occurring inside Agung each day – are unprecedented since Agung’s activity being measured post-1963. The quakes, along with a new fracture in the crater that is emitting steam, indicate rising levels of magmatic energy.

From the volcanology monitoring post in the village of Rendang, the seismologist Devy Kamil Syahbana said the smoky vapour was likely to be groundwater heated by plates of magma nearing Agung’s surface.



The volcanology post takes continuous readings from an analogue seismograph, the needle of which twitches back and forth with every quake, as well as a digital equivalent, every six hours. Data is also drawn from satellite images and tiltmeters.



Based on geological modelling, Syahbana explained, seismologists point to the possibility of Mount Agung erupting at VEI3, or a volcanic explosivity index of three, with an opening eruption height of more than six miles (10km). That, he said, pointing to a model drawn on his whiteboard, would create a column that would then rain down dangerous pyroclastic flows.



It was also possible that Agung would not erupt but, at this point, the readings show the probability of an eruption was higher than not, Syahbana said.



Facebook Twitter Pinterest Mount Agung spewing hot gas on Friday. Photograph: Made Nagi/EPA

At the Rendang post, overlooking green ricefields and jungle leading to Agung’s cloud-covered peak, the men of the village were nervous but still managed a joke. “The ones who can still run are here,” said 42-year-old Nyoman Karyiarsa.

Summing up the mood, he said everyone in the village had a full tank of petrol in their bikes – just in case.



Rendang, on the border of the danger zone, is technically safe but many women and children have left. In the past week the number of refugees camped out in halls, temples and in the homes of family and friends swelled to more than 136,000.



Many sleep at the camps at night and in the morning head to their homes, checking on their livestock and other belongings.



Meanwhile, priests ride their motorbikes to the island’s “mother temple” of Besakih, on the slopes of Agung, attempting to calm the rumbling mountain through prayer.