It was a tough Spanish Grand Prix for Ferrari. Not only did they finish 45 seconds behind Mercedes but for the second Grand Prix running a plucky and resolute Valtteri Bottas split the Ferraris with Vettel in third and Raikkonen in fifth. Vettel managed his fourth podium of the season but even afterwards the four time world champion seemed frustrated. This Ferrari frustration will come as a result of their lack of progress since claiming victory at the Malaysian Grand Prix back in March.

The post-race interview with Vettel seemed telling. The German refused to rule himself out of title race but his acknowledgement of Ferrari’s failure to close in on Mercedes in Spain shows things are not necessarily on the up for the Scuderia. The upgrade package they brought to Spain was more than troublesome. Kimi Raikkonen disliked it so much he opted to go without it in Friday practice. It is slightly concerning that Ferrari failed to really even get close. The gap to Mercedes in Melbourne was thirty seconds so on that basis Ferrari have gone backward.

This is definitely not the case. Ferrari may not have gained on Mercedes but the Circuit De Catalunya was not ever really going to suit Ferrari. It requires a car with both good straight-line speed and excellent aerodynamics or in other words a well balanced car. Ferrari do not quite have the overall package and with Raikkonen really struggling to find a balance he likes in his Ferrari he was always going to struggle. Vettel put in a good shift but a slightly misjudged strategy and of course inferior car meant Hamilton and Rosberg were destined to stroll away in the final third of the race.

Despite trying to make some excuse for Ferrari it has to be said that, three races after Malaysia, they really should have made more significant gains on Mercedes. Of course Mercedes themselves are going to develop. However the pace of Ferrari’s initial development this year was enough to make you believe that they would have caught the Silver Arrows by now, or at least have closed up to them. If Ferrari can edit and improve on their upgrades at the Barcelona testing then improvements at Monaco are a real possibility.

Monaco may well be key. Ferrari as it stands are not on par with Mercedes in terms of straight line speed. That effect is negated in Monaco due to the lack of straights and that could into Ferrari’s hands. Qualifying is imperative at Monaco and basically dictates the race. So far on Mercedes cars have found themselves on pole for every race and that will be a concern for Ferrari. To put it bluntly, if Ferrari perfect their upgrade package for Monaco we will know by the end of qualifying.

If Ferrari fail do close up to Mercedes, which is probable on the evidence of Spain, then their last hope of a title challenge is pure straight-line speed. Ferrari apparently have a significant engine upgrade planned for the Canadian Grand Prix next month. It is expected that Ferrari will use five of their ten engine upgrade “tokens” in order to boost the FS15-T’s power by around 30 brake-horsepower. Such an increase would certainly boost the straight-line speed of the car, a necessity for a track like Canada. It is unconfirmed if Ferrari will bring such an upgrade to Canada but if they did it would be a major step towards Mercedes

Some pundits have speculated that Ferrari are now going backward and that Williams are closing in. This, on the basis of Spain, seems likely. Williams also brought a raft of upgrades to Barcelona and unlike Ferrari the package improved the car greatly. Ferrari are still some strides ahead of Williams however. Had it not been for the burning of Raikkonen’s tyres in Q3 by a blanket he may well have converted a better grid slot into a better race result ahead of fellow Finn Bottas. None the less it is vital Ferrari react and amend their lack of progress to keep pressure on Mercedes and stay ahead of Williams. Should they fail to do so questions will surely be asked and Mercedes would once again run away with both the Constructor’s and Driver’s World Championship.

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