The heart and soul of the Republican Party belongs to Donald Trump Donald John TrumpBubba Wallace to be driver of Michael Jordan, Denny Hamlin NASCAR team Graham: GOP will confirm Trump's Supreme Court nominee before the election Southwest Airlines, unions call for six-month extension of government aid MORE. Last week, a single tweet by the president knocked challenger Danny Tarkanian out of Nevada’s Republican Senate primary, and sent him scurrying into a House race.

Despite Trump’s newfound tropism toward attacking special counsel Robert Mueller Robert (Bob) MuellerCNN's Toobin warns McCabe is in 'perilous condition' with emboldened Trump CNN anchor rips Trump over Stone while evoking Clinton-Lynch tarmac meeting The Hill's 12:30 Report: New Hampshire fallout MORE, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellGraham: GOP will confirm Trump's Supreme Court nominee before the election Trump puts Supreme Court fight at center of Ohio rally The Memo: Dems face balancing act on SCOTUS fight MORE has stayed mum, and House Speaker Paul Ryan Paul Davis RyanKenosha will be a good bellwether in 2020 At indoor rally, Pence says election runs through Wisconsin Juan Williams: Breaking down the debates MORE has been barely been able to utter a word in Mueller’s defense. Then Tuesday, Bruce Rauner, the deep-pocketed incumbent Republican governor of Illinois, barely eked out a win over state legislator Jean Ives, a social conservative and Trump devotee.

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For all the talk of a possible presidential primary challenge to Trump in 2020, the reality on the ground indicates that any such endeavor would be more symbolic than real. In that vein, think Republican Pete McCloskey’s bid for the Republican nomination against President Richard Nixon, as opposed to Ted Kennedy’s 1980 run at President Jimmy Carter.

McCloskey, a former Marine, mounted a symbolic protest effort against Nixon and the Vietnam War in 1972. It went nowhere. The New Hampshire primary was the high point of McCloskey’s campaign. He garnered less than a fifth of the vote in the Granite State, and thereafter lost a dozen contests. By contrast, Kennedy fought all the way to New York City and the Democratic National Convention. There, at Madison Square Garden, Kennedy stole the spotlight in defeat. His “Dream Shall Never Die” speech will go down in campaign history as one of the most electrifying ever.

While Trump may take comfort in having wrested control of the GOP, elected Republicans labor under a miasma of dread as they stare ahead to midterm elections in November. Unlike Trump, who engenders loathing among Democrats and love from his base, incumbent Republicans evoke disdain from all comers.

A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll drove this point home. It showed the Democrats widening their advantage on the generic congressional ballot to a double-digit lead. At the same time, Trump’s own numbers ticked upward. In other words, support for Trump was not synonymous with sympathy for the GOP, and votes for Trump in November 2016 are no guarantee for Republican legislators this fall.

Indeed, it has been a bumpy ride for the Republican Party at the ballot box ever since Trump became president. Early on, special elections were far closer than anticipated, even in deep red South Carolina. Then, starting on Election Day 2017, Democratic anger morphed into something tangible. For Republicans, it something very worrisome.

The Democrats flipped the New Jersey governor’s mansion, held onto the Virginia governorship in a blowout win against a generic establishment Republican, pulled a major upset in the Senate race in Alabama, and scored another upset win in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district. This is a trend that may leave Nancy Pelosi Nancy PelosiTrump puts Supreme Court fight at center of Ohio rally CDC causes new storm by pulling coronavirus guidance Overnight Health Care: CDC pulls revised guidance on coronavirus | Government watchdog finds supply shortages are harming US response | As virus pummels US, Europe sees its own spike MORE wielding the Speaker’s gavel and Trump staring at a bill of impeachment come 2019.

Yet, the Republican Party is acting as though it were a mere bystander to the story, unwilling to digest the fact that their brand is in trouble. In the aftermath of Conor Lamb’s victory, GOP poohbahs were more inclined to lay the blame at Rick Saccone’s feet or to chirp “more tax cuts” than to say “Houston, we have a problem.”

Compounding the dilemma is the president himself, and not simply his tweets, his lawsuits, or even the Mueller investigation. Rather, Trump’s unwillingness to give Republicans needed breathing room is another serious impediment. Although Trump has reportedly acknowledged that some people “hate me,” he refuses to countenance any response other than adoration on the stump and in public. If anyone needs proof, John McCain John Sidney McCainBiden's six best bets in 2016 Trump states Replacing Justice Ginsburg could depend on Arizona's next senator The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Washington on edge amid SCOTUS vacancy MORE is Exhibit A, and Barbara Comstock Barbara Jean ComstockLive coverage: House holds third day of public impeachment hearings Gun debate raises stakes in battle for Virginia legislature Progressives face steep odds in ousting incumbent Democrats MORE is Exhibit B.

Despite McCain’s medical condition, Trump refuses to let up on Arizona’s senior senator. Last month at CPAC, Trump again tagged McCain for his vote on ObamaCare repeal. For Trump there are never bygones, just glowing embers ready to reignite with the slightest breeze. As for Comstock, who warned the president about the government shutdown, Trump simply doubled-down on his earlier position of tying immigration to a spending bill. The fact that Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonJoe Biden looks to expand election battleground into Trump country Biden leads Trump by 12 points among Catholic voters: poll The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden goes on offense MORE won Comstock’s suburban Virginia district was of no importance to Trump. Comstock’s reelection is her own problem, not his.

And so, the Republican Party is left to just cater to its base, which would be fine if they weren’t held in such low regard, or if Trump’s numbers were hovering near 50 percent. But that’s not reality. Rather, Independents are trending blue this cycle, the suburbs are in open rebellion, and millennials have abandoned the GOP. At this rate, Trump may yet morph into Obama 2.0, a president who put personal vanity ahead of party, only to lose control of both houses of Congress.

Lloyd Green was the opposition research counsel to the George H.W. Bush campaign in 1988 and later served in the U.S. Department of Justice.