CHICO — For the thousands of people displaced by the Camp Fire searching for other long-term housing in Butte County, the outlook is bleak.

The bottom line is that nearly 6,500 homes have been destroyed by the fire which continues to blaze through Northern California — and the county does not have enough units available for all of those former occupants. Before the fire leveled the town of Paradise, the housing vacancy rate in the county was somewhere between 1.5 to 2.5 percent, said Ed Mayer, executive director of Butte County’s Housing Authority.

“The housing situation prior to this incident was critical — very, very low vacancy rates, typical of California at the present time,” Mayer said. “After this crisis, our housing need is extreme.”

In four days, with the fire at 25 percent containment, around 6.5 percent of the housing units in the county has been wiped out. There were 99,404 housing units counted in the last Census.

The current rate of growth in Chico is about 600 units a year, so at that rate, it would take over 10 years to build enough new housing for the influx of people displaced by the fire.

“Now, can you develop them affordably, would they be suitable for the households that have been displaced — these are all questions,” Mayer said.

For now, there are evacuation centers, homes of friends and family, hotels and Airbnbs. But in most cases, these will only be short-term solutions.

As far as more semi-permanent possibilities, Mayer suggested that community spaces like fairground facilities could be opened up for tents, RVs and trailers and that permitting for accessory dwelling units could be streamlined.

“We have to think creatively on how to provide,” he said.

Many people may have lost their jobs, as local businesses have burned down, and some schools have been lost. So, the number of impacted residents who will want to or have the ability to stay in the area is another unknown.

Will they come back?

Butte County Supervisor Doug Teeter is concerned that many of his fellow Paradisians will be forced to move and will never return. Teeter lost his home, which his grandfather built, in Paradise but knows he wants to rebuild.

He grew up in the town and moved back in 2005.

“My biggest fear for my community, because of the horrific loss of businesses and personal residences and apartment complexes, is that a lot of people may have lost their jobs on the ridge,” Teeter said. “They may well choose that I can’t rebuild because I need a job.”

Once the ground is cleared and utilities can be provided again, local leaders will have to figure out how to get people back into their communities. Teeter said he had spoken with a Shasta County supervisor dealing with the aftermath of the Carr Fire about changing building code to allow for any quick and safe shelter that people could put on their property while they rebuild.

“There’s going to be a lot of conversation about fixes or tweaks to our building code to allow that to happen, ‘cause that’s going to get people back the fastest,” he said.

Robert Bean, a 55-year-old Paradise resident, is also looking forward after losing his home and several other properties he owned. Bean, who is an emergency room nurse, said he actually called his insurance agent as he saw his home becoming engulfed in flames.

He said his parents had lost their home to fire in Napa last year, and from their experience, knew he should act fast.

Bean said his folks had actually moved to Paradise from Napa and had just lost that house as well.

“So, lightning does strike twice,” he said.

Bean said his insurance company should be sending people out to assess his property within two weeks and that he had already received some funds for temporary housing. He eventually plans to spend some of the insurance money to buy an RV.

He said he might park it on his property while he rebuilds, but he wasn’t committing to that idea just yet.

“A marathon … not a sprint.”

The town of Paradise, which was home to 26,682 people according to the 2017 Census, is a retirement community. It has housed a significant population of older people and people with low or very low income levels, according to Ed Mayer, who described Butte as a “very low-income” county.

With higher demand, prices for homes will inevitably rise, but some Paradise homeowners should be able to afford homes in Chico, said Jennifer Griggs, Butte Countywide Homeless Continuum of Care coordinator. State law protects against price gouging on goods and services including rentals during emergencies.

The main concern is for people who are low or very low income, Griggs said.

It was already difficult to find affordable 1-2 bedroom units locally before the fire, at $700-$900 on the low end, she said. Older people on disability or social security typically receive around $900 a month, Griggs said.

People who were renting homes without renter’s insurance will also likely struggle to put down a deposit and first and last month’s rent at a new place.

The rental market in Oroville has been hard to get into because so many dam workers moved there temporarily, she said. However, it should open up in the coming months as reconstruction comes to a close.

Griggs said she was aware of groups meeting informally over the weekend to talk about options for housing and that the county would undoubtedly be looking to communities including Santa Rosa, which have had to rebuild after wildfire devastation.

“The most important thing at this time is for us to support each other,” she said. “It was best said by a friend who I saw today — ‘this is a marathon; this is not a sprint.’ We have to pace ourselves because we know it’s going to be a long run.”