There are various models.

The University of Washington model has been heavily criticized.

This is the MIT AI model that uses machine learning to predict coronavirus infections and deaths.

Daily Mail:

“Coming out of lockdown too soon could be catastrophic and lead to an explosion of new coronavirus cases according to a study modelling the spread of the virus. Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) created a model showing the spread of the deadly virus using publicly available data. The authors say that any immediate or near-term relaxation of quarantine measures already in place would lead to an ‘exponential explosion’ in COVID-19 cases. It comes as Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab declared that the UK coronavirus lockdown will stay for at least another three weeks. The model developed by the MIT team has proved accurate when tested against data from late January to early March – it anticipated the rate of spreading up to April 1 and is capable of predicting spread going forward.

This is the first time a model has been built based purely on COVID-19 data – all previously models used SARS and MERS information to chart the outbreak. Most models predict the spread of disease by looking at people susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered but this model captures the number of infected individual still in quarantine and unable to infect others. This allows them to go beyond existing models and create a much more accurate system to predict the future impact of the virus if lockdowns are ended early. They predict COVID-19 infections will reach a plateau in the US and Italy next week but say this isn’t a reason to relax lockdown measures already in place. …”

I guess we will see.

I’m growing exasperated with the lockdown debate. I don’t know what else I can say to people who believe the flu season goes in reverse and skyrockets in mid-March through April and into the summer.