With an aggressive second-term agenda of climate change, immigration reform, tax reform, gun control, and locking down ObamaCare, the Obama administration has been riding the crest of reelection and driving toward ousting the Republican House majority in 2014.

Momentum shifts often go unnoticed at first, turning on seemingly inconsequential events. But such events often reflect underlying currents.

But reality often gets in the way of big plans. The President's recent outreach to Republicans no doubt reflects the sense that all is not well in Obama-land.

A McClatchy-Marist poll released this week shows the President underwater in approval ratings, with a 45% job approval compared with a 48% disapproval. On budget issues, even Congress outpolls Obama, 44% vs. 42%.

The McClatchy column observes that any political capital from the President's reelection is "largely gone," and quotes the Marist polling director:

Any glow from his re-election is starting to fade... During the election, it was him versus Romney. Now it's him versus people's expectations for the country.

One sign of trouble for the Obama administration was the President punctuating his sequester doom and gloom predictions with the cancellation of White House tours, truly ham-handed handling by a normally media-savvy White House.

A second sign of trouble was Senator Rand Paul's (R-Ky.) filibuster receiving widespread news coverage and support. The Obama folks could not be happy at being outmaneuvered in the media by those pesky tea party types.

The Obama sequester fiasco and the Rand Paul filibuster were of little consequence on the surface, but both events reflect an Obama Presidency on shaky second-term ground.

The initial crack in the second-term facade had appeared shortly after the inauguration, when a Federal appeals court ruled that the President's questionable recess appointments to the National Labor Relations Board were unconstitutional.

And now the Democrat legislative agenda is stalling as well.

The public is more interested in asteroid strikes than climate change, immigration is as thorny as ever, House Republicans are taking the budget lead, gun control is foundering in the Senate, and ObamaCare is making its own case for repeal.

Obama's recent dinner nights for Republicans are a sign of concern in the White House over their media faux pas, their withering legislative agenda, and their lengthening odds in 2014.

Momentum shifts must be held or be lost. It is up to the Republicans to seize the momentum and carry it into the 2014 mid-term election.