THERESA MAY has one route to a Brexit deal that can avoid irrevocably splitting her party and bringing down her government.

She needs to persuade the European Union to replace the Northern Ireland backstop with a UK-wide one and to accept an escape clause to show that the UK won’t be trapped in a customs union with the EU ­forever.

7 Ministers want to be sure theres an escape route from the EU

Influential Cabinet ministers expect the Government to decide on the escape clause it will propose to Brussels in the coming days.

The Brexit negotiations will then resume with the EU in the second half of next week.

Key Cabinet ministers have one test for the escape clause: Is it legally meaningful. In other words, will it give the UK a genuine opportunity to leave.

Just putting the word temporary in front of the phrase ­”customs union” — a solution favoured by some at the heart of Government — won’t be enough for these Secretaries of State.

7 Theresa May needs to persuade the European Union to replace the Northern Ireland backstop with a UK-wide one Credit: Alamy Live News

One tells me that it has “got to be legally binding and enforceable. Something that is vague and not enforceable won’t get through Parliament”. All of this makes the newest face at the Cabinet table, the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, absolutely crucial.

Cox is a Brexiteer and one of the finest dozen legal brains in the country. Ministers will defer to him on whether this escape clause is worth the paper it’s written on.

As one of those helping to ­coordinate the Brexiteers in government tells me, Cox values his reputation too much to try to spin ministers a line. They are confident he will give them an honest assessment of the escape clause’s worth.

“Anything will have to go through the AG,” I’m told by one Government source.

7 Cox values his reputation too much to try to spin ministers a line Credit: Alamy Live News

Cox’s influence will run throughout this process. I understand that the bulk of the Pizza Club of Cabinet ministers who met on Monday night have agreed not to back the final Brexit deal until they have seen the legal advice.

I am told that Michael Gove made clear at Cabinet this week that he couldn’t back any Northern Irish backstop until he had been shown “clear, ­written legal advice” on it.

This insistence on seeing the legal advice is meant to prevent a repeat of what happened last December when No10 gave Brexiteer Cabinet ­ministers assurances about what the backstop meant which were not borne out by events.

So, the question becomes: Will the EU be prepared to engage with the UK or will Michel Barnier simply say “non, non”?

7 Ministers have agreed not to back the final Brexit deal until they have seen the legal advice Credit: Getty Images - Getty

Well, there is a cautious ­optimism in No10 that the political will to do a deal is beginning to be there on the European side. There is a realisation that if the EU rejects everything May proposes, there will be no agreement reached — and that will mean a hard border in Ireland, which is what everyone is trying to avoid.

Interestingly, there is also a sense that if agreement can be reached on the backstop, then the deal has a better chance of passing through Parliament than

previously thought.

One of those who has read the draft political declaration tells me that the UK/EU future relationship is more to the taste of Tory Brexiteers than expected.

May must find a way to get the EU to accept an escape clause, for without that she’ll lose more Cabinet Ministers and her position will be even more vulnerable.

It’d leave her dependent on an unrealistically large number of Labour votes to get a Brexit deal through the Commons.



Transition could be May's undoing

GAVIN BARWELL, the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, had the Government’s junior ministers in on Tuesday. He wanted to talk them through Theresa May’s domestic agenda as outlined in her conference speech.

He wanted to emphasise that the Government would prioritise its domestic agenda as soon as the meaningful vote on Brexit was through the Commons.

7 Gavin Bartwell has spoken to junior ministers to talk them through the PM's domestic agenda Credit: Reuters

Barwell’s comments fit with an expectation in Cabinet that Mrs May will attempt to relaunch her premiership with a domestic focus as soon as the Commons has voted on her Brexit deal.

The aim is to create a rationale for keeping May on as Prime Minister after Brexit day. Influential Cabinet ministers are also expecting Mrs May to reshuffle her Cabinet at that point.

The thinking is that a freshened-up Cabinet would give the Government a new, post-Brexit feel without a need to replace the Prime Minister. But the chances of Mrs May staying on long after Brexit day in March 2019 have lowered significantly in the past few days.

Before this week, some Tory MPs argued that Mrs May should stay until the Brexit transition was done in December 2020. They said this would mean that a new leader would be able to come in as a fresh face after Brexit and in time for the next General Election.

7 The aim is to create a rationale for keeping May on as Prime Minister after Brexit day Credit: PA:Press Association/PA Images

However, the news that the transition could be extended cuts against that argument, as the transition could take you to months away from the next election.

Privately, Tories from the Cabinet down acknowledge that if the transition can be extended, then the case for keeping Mrs May until the end of it is weaker.

Rather, it would be better to get a new leader soon after March 2019 to give them a chance to make an impact on both Brexit and domestic policy before the 2022 General Election.

Irish backstop THE European Union likes to say that an Irish backstop is needed to protect the Good Friday agreement. But what that ignores is that by changing the nature of Northern Ireland’s relationship with the rest of the UK without consent, the backstop risks being in breach of that agreement.

Braced for a budget battle

THERESA MAY’S declaration in her party conference speech that austerity is over has raised expectations of big pay rises across the public sector.

7 Liz Truss was keen to hose down the idea that an end top austerity might lead to big pay rises across the public sector Credit: EPA

At Cabinet this week, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Liz Truss, was keen to hose down this idea. She emphasised that public sector pay deals should be based on retention – eg. how many staff were leaving because the pay isn’t good enough, geographic factors and helping the lowest paid most.

I’m told that Mrs Truss told the Cabinet that: “Some pay review bodies have ignored affordability requirements.”

I understand Mrs May agreed the Government should get away from the idea of a single figure for public sector pay. Meanwhile, preparations for the Budget continue.

This is meant to be a small Budget yet one ­Government source warns it is going to be “bloody contentious”. Why? Because it will set the baseline for departmental spending ahead of next year’s spending review.



Bungled vote would be a challenge

THE biggest risk of a leadership challenge to Theresa May comes from cock-up, not conspiracy.

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The danger for her is not that Brexit ultras organise 48 letters and send them in simultaneously, forcing a confidence vote in her, but that enough despairing Tory

MPs send in their letters and the party stumbles into a vote on Mrs May’s future. One of those involved in discussions about whether to try to remove Mrs May tells me the Brexit ultras “are not as organised as you might think”.

If there was a confidence vote, Mrs May would probably survive it. But after this week, it would be closer than it would have been before.

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