Original Screenplay

✓ “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won “Knives Out,” Rian Johnson “Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach “1917,” Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino

Tarantino has won the original-screenplay Oscar twice before, so he can’t be counted out here. Still, the path to best picture almost always goes through one of the screenplay categories, and “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood” has lost much of its momentum for the top award. The best-picture front-runner “1917” is probably too sparse a screenplay to win in this category, so I expect the win will go to twisty “Parasite,” the night’s other big contender for the top Oscar.

Adapted Screenplay

✓ “Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi “The Irishman,” Steven Zaillian “Joker,” Todd Phillips, Scott Silver “Little Women,” Greta Gerwig “The Two Popes,” Anthony McCarten

Oscar voters caught a lot of flak when Gerwig failed to make the best-director race, and they may be tempted to make it up to her here. Still, I’d give the slim edge to Waititi, who won the Writers Guild Award in this category and whose performance in his own movie — as a jokey Adolf Hitler, no less — only lends him further star power that should put him over the top.

International Feature

✓ “Parasite,” South Korea “Corpus Christi,” Poland “Honeyland,” North Macedonia “Les Misérables,” France “Pain and Glory,” Spain

Outside of the acting categories, this is one of the most foregone conclusions of the night: “Parasite” will surely prevail, giving South Korea its first victory in this Oscar race. The only question is whether some voters will deem this win sufficient, and then go on to choose a different movie in the best-picture category.

Animated Feature

✓ “Toy Story 4” “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” “I Lost My Body” “Klaus” “Missing Link”

Oscar voters are loath to recognize a sequel in this category, and the last one to win was “Toy Story 3,” which may slow their enthusiasm for rewarding Pixar once more. Still, the field is scattered: “Missing Link” won the Golden Globe, “Klaus” swept the Annie awards, and Netflix’s “I Lost My Body” has highbrow fans, too. With votes all over the place and no singular, widely seen alternative to back, “Toy Story 4” is well-positioned to win.

Documentary

✓ “American Factory” “The Cave” “The Edge of Democracy” “For Sama” “Honeyland”

“Honeyland,” about a beekeeper in North Macedonia, pulled off an impressive double nomination for documentary feature and international film. Still, this category is packed with powerhouse social-issues dramas, and the favorite has to be “American Factory,” which chronicles a culture clash between Chinese industrialists and hard-up American workers. The film has received a strong push from Netflix and counts no less than Barack and Michelle Obama among its backers.

Visual Effects

✓ “1917” “Avengers: Endgame” “The Irishman” “The Lion King” “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”

Best-picture contenders typically have the edge over tentpole fare in this category, so while “The Lion King” certainly boasts the most effects, the ultimate contest should come down to “The Irishman” and its de-aging technology vs. the more seamless wartime enhancements of “1917.” Since Robert De Niro’s youthful C.G.I. makeover came in for some criticism, I suspect voters will choose “1917.”