Conservatives with huge lead in Macleod

TORONTO, JUNE 19th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among voters in three of the four federal ridings where by-elections will take place on June 30, the Liberals have strong leads in two, while the Conservatives have an insurmountable lead in a third.

Trinity-Spadina

Among the 569 voters polled in this riding, more than half will vote for the Liberal candidate, Adam Vaughan (52%), while one third will vote for his NDP counterpart, Joe Cressy (34%). These findings are very similar to those noted last month (May 15 - Vaughan - 54%, Cressy - 31%). The Conservative vote (Ben Sharma, 12% now, 13% then) and Green vote (2% then and now) have not changed. The Liberal vote is common to Gen Y (35 to 44 - 60%) and those in lower income groups ($20K to $40K - 63%). The NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (52%), females (39%), mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 50%). Notably, more than 4-in-10 past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time (44%) and just more than half will vote their own party again (54%).





Scarborough-Agincourt

Among the 562 voters polled in Scarborough-Agincourt, more than half will vote for the Liberal standard-bearer, Arnold Chan (52%), compared to just more than a third who will vote for the Conservative candidate, Trevor Ellis (36%). These results represent a slight widening in the lead for the Liberals (May 15 - Chan - 46%, Ellis - 38%). The NDP (8%), Greens (2%) and other parties (2%) do not contend in this riding. The Liberal vote is characteristic of Gen X (45 to 54 - 57%) and higher income groups ($80K to $100K - 67%). The Conservative vote is common to the oldest (41%), females (40%) and in lower income groups ($20K to $40K - 41%). Of note, more than 4-in-10 past NDP voters (2011) will vote Liberal this time (45%), one fifth will vote Conservative (19%) and just one third will vote for the NDP again (34%).





Macleod

Among the 508 voters polled in Macleod, close to two thirds will vote Conservative, for John Barlow (61%), while just one tenth will vote either for the Liberal, Dustin Fuller, or the New Democrat, Aileen Burke (11% each). Just fewer than this will vote Green (9%) or for another party (8%). In the month since polled last, little has changed (May 15 - Barlow - 62%, Fuller - 15%). The Conservative vote is typical of the oldest (72%), lower ($20K to $40K - 74%) and higher income groups ($80K to $100K - 71%). The Conservative vote is the "stickiest" in that more past partisans will vote Conservative again (80%) than is the case among Liberals (67%) or New Democrats (60%).





Fort McMurray-Athabasca

Polling was conducted in this riding but adequate sample for detailed analysis was not collected.

“These by-elections are proving to be very steady affairs, and no significant changes have happened in a month. We can expect the Liberals to pick up Trinity-Spadina from the NDP, drawing on the strength of their showing in the riding during the provincial election, and they'll hold Scarborough-Agincourt, it appears. A Conservative win in Macleod is a foregone conclusion, of course, but Fort McMurray continues to be a puzzle, as it is a very difficult riding to poll," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.