It will be history in the making. An NRL State of Origin match — arguably the biggest sporting rivalry in Australia — will take place in Perth this weekend.

Holding an Origin game at a neutral venue is not a new thing, but it will be first time Western Australia has hosted the marquee event.

As the Origin show rolls into town, and with the game an effective sell-out, the inevitable discussion about whether Perth should have its own NRL side will rear its head.

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume. Watch Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds 3 m 28 s Queensland beats NSW 18-14 in State of Origin Game I (Photo: AAP)

The expansion of rugby league into staunch AFL territory is not a new conversation.

Indeed, the WA Government has made clear its desire to see an NRL side located in Perth whenever any expansion takes place.

That is not going to happen until at least 2023, when the current broadcast deal is renegotiated, given uncertainty around the magnitude of the next deal.

The struggle for fans and funding

The NRL is currently enjoying its biggest broadcast deal on record, valued at $1.8 billion until 2022, but there are concerns this may be the high-water mark for NRL broadcast rights.

Foxtel — a key player in any rights deal — has already flagged it would have to prioritize some sports over others as it struggles to adapt to a highly competitive market disrupted by streaming services like Netflix.

There is uncertainty around the magnitude of the next NRL broadcast deal. ( AAP: Darren Pateman )

The size of the next deal will directly impact whether the code decides to add a 17th team, relocate one of its struggling Sydney sides to a different state or maintain the status quo.

Unlike the AFL, which enjoys huge match attendance figures, the NRL struggles to attract large numbers of fans to games.

As a result, clubs depend heavily on the Australian Rugby League Commission for funding.

In 2016, only three teams made a profit across the NRL and only one of those was in New South Wales, where 10 of the 16 teams are based.

The arguments for a team in Perth are clear: A stand-alone timeslot, which in broadcast land is a strong bargaining chip when re-negotiating its rights deal; and a permanent NRL presence in a city dominated by AFL.

The AFL regularly draws big crowds to Perth Stadium. Could the NRL do the same? ( Supplied: Perth Stadium )

But the overwhelming concern for any club, new or relocated, is whether there is the support in Western Australia to sustain it.

Overcoming history and a worrying trend

That is not to say there is not a base of supporters — four of the five highest attended sporting events at Perth Oval were rugby league matches, including the 2016 Test Match between the Kangaroos and New Zealand.

Whether that level of support, or anything even close to it, could be sustained is the big question.

A Test match between the Kangaroos and New Zealand at Perth Oval in 2016 drew a big crowd. ( AAP: Richard Wainwright )

The Western Reds, Perth's only NRL side to date, attracted strong crowds at the WACA Ground until it defected to the Super League and was ultimately axed as part of a peace deal between the rival codes.

But the recent history of ball sports outside of the AFL in WA will not be attractive reading for any prospective side.

The Western Force was axed from Super Rugby in 2017 on the back of poor results and dwindling attendances, and the Perth Glory — despite sitting top of the A-League for most of last season — has battled to attract crowds of more than 10,000 on a consistent basis.

Average attendances at major codes Code 2019 2018 2017 AFL 36,341 36,682 35,202 NRL 16,050 16,414 15,783 Super Rugby 11,311 11,004 11,434 A-League 10,899 10,912 12,650 Data: Austadiums.com

In a city where AFL sides West Coast and Fremantle dwarf all sporting opposition, attracting ongoing crowds for a league franchise will be a challenge.

This makes the next broadcast deal crucial in determining if Perth will be home to a NRL side in the near future.

We are four years away from a decision, but the conversation is well and truly underway.