After days of obsessing over the anonymous New York Times op-ed and Bob Woodward’s book Fear, Donald Trump’s mood was improving markedly last week as he watched Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination sailing toward a confirmation vote. “Everyone thought Kavanaugh was a slam dunk,” an outside adviser to the White House told me. In a phone call with Sean Hannity over the weekend, Trump even boasted he’d gotten past Woodward’s book—he told people it was a dud. But his reprieve would be short-lived. On Sunday, college professor Christine Blasey Ford told The Washington Post that Kavanaugh had allegedly attempted to rape her at a party when they were teenagers, thrusting Trump and the White House into a #MeToo crisis at a moment when they can’t afford to antagonize women voters ahead of the midterms.

According to three sources, Kavanaugh’s imperiled confirmation has unsettled Trump and the White House. “Everyone knows his predisposition is to punch back, but this is a different situation than an election,” a former West Wing official briefed on the strategy discussions said. In the past, Trump responded to allegations of sexual misconduct by channeling his mentor Roy Cohn: deny everything, and go on the attack. But he’s been surprisingly measured in his defense of Kavanaugh. In a news conference today, Trump told reporters, “I feel so badly for him that he’s going through this,” but refrained from attacking Ford.

According to sources, several factors are at play. White House advisers are worried that more damaging information about Kavanaugh could come out. Two sources told me the White House has heard rumors that Ford’s account will be verified by women who say she told it to them contemporaneously. People worry, without apparent evidence, of another Ronan Farrow bomb dropping. One source says Ivanka Trump has told her father to “cut bait” and drop Kavanaugh.

Another reason Trump hasn’t gone to the mat for Kavanaugh is that he’s said to be suspicious of Kavanaugh’s establishment pedigree. “‘He’s a Bush guy, why would I put myself out there defending him?’” Trump told people, according to a former White House official briefed on the conversations. Trump also has expressed frustration with White House counsel Don McGahn, who aggressively lobbied for him to choose Kavanaugh, a source said. “Trump wants this guy on the court, but Trump knows there are five other people he could put on the court if this falls apart,” a former official said.

But the threat of losing the House and Senate seems to have helped convince Trump not to go scorched-earth on Ford. If Trump antagonizes women voters, it could increase the odds Republicans would lose both houses in Congress. “Trump knows the Senate is not looking good,” an outside adviser said. “It’s all about the impeachment, he knows it’s coming.”

Even before the Kavanaugh crisis, Trump has been worried about Republicans’ declining fortunes, and he’s been finding ways to shift the blame. Trump told a friend in the Oval Office last week that it would be Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan’s fault if Republicans lost the House and the Senate, according to a person familiar with the conversation. “This is the election about Ryan and McConnell—it’s about those guys,” Trump said. Trump referred to his 2020 campaign as “the real election.” “It’s pure Trump. He has to come up with a way he’s not responsible if Republicans lose,” a former West Wing staffer said.

The White House and the offices of Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan did not respond to requests for comment.