Senate Republican leadership is set for a major shake-up after the next election.

Though Mitch McConnell plans to stay put for years to come, his leadership team is about to undergo its biggest overhaul in years: All four other GOP leaders are term-limited in their current posts, including Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn of Texas, Conference Chairman John Thune of South Dakota, Policy Chairman John Barrasso of Wyoming and Conference Vice Chairman Roy Blunt of Missouri.


The Senate Republican Conference is brimming with ambitious members, and the leadership reordering will be a critical opportunity for longtime and more junior lawmakers to raise their profiles and build their résumés. Cornyn would never challenge McConnell, but the Kentucky Republican’s lock on the top job could create a bottleneck for senators looking to ascend the ranks and establish a national profile.

As for McConnell, the 75-year-old majority leader plans to run for reelection in 2020, sources close to him said, and would become the longest-serving Senate leader in history if he were to win and keep his post for the full term. His already large imprint on the chamber and national politics would be immense, spanning multiple presidencies.

Cornyn, McConnell’s successor as the party’s No. 2 and a top GOP fundraiser and political strategist, would be affected most directly. The former Texas Supreme Court judge makes no secret of his interest in becoming the top Republican someday. But if McConnell follows through and stays on as leader through 2026, Cornyn might be left to wait for eight years without a leadership position.

“Sen. McConnell has been a good leader, and I think he enjoys the broad support of our conference. And so I think a lot depends on what his decision is going to be,” Cornyn said of his own future. Being leader is “something I would be interested in doing, after he’s no longer leader. If there’s an opportunity to serve, then sure.”

McConnell indicated last summer that he was preparing to run again, but he has generally been tight-lipped about his plans. That’s beginning to change, however: In Louisville over the weekend for a wedding, Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) bumped into McConnell’s political team at an event for McConnell’s 2020 election.

“It is evident that he is apparently looking at running for reelection,” Corker said. McConnell also just secured a permanent extension of coal miners’ health insurance in a spending bill that will be major political currency in his state.

Republicans enforce strict limits of three two-year terms for all leadership posts except for party leader, which McConnell has held since 2007. In theory, Cornyn could receive the blessing of the conference to receive a waiver to remain as whip, but he said he has no plans to do so.

That means Cornyn, Thune, Barrasso and Blunt all must vacate their posts after the 2018 election. The easiest solution would be for each of them — except for Cornyn — to get a promotion. But that may not be so simple given the relatively stagnant GOP leadership ranks and the ambition of more junior members to ascend the ladder.

Cornyn, 65, is one of the most versatile political players in the Capitol, working out in the gym with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) one moment and throwing scathing partisan jabs the next. He has twice chaired the GOP Senate electoral arm and has deep relationships with many senators because of his work on the political side.

It’s unclear what official role he will play after his term expires, but Cornyn signaled that he should not be counted out.

“The thing about politics, to me, that makes it so interesting, is the unexpected always seems to occur,” he said. “So it’s hard to make long-term plans, because things happen.”

Thune, by all accounts, will seek the party whip spot, which comes with a security detail and an ornate office suite in the Capitol. Some of Thune’s allies say he could also be a future successor to McConnell if he can capture the whip job. In an interview, Thune was coy about his intentions, deferring on explicitly announcing a campaign for whip a year and a half before party elections.

“Obviously, I’ve enjoyed serving our conference as a member of the leadership, and obviously, if there’s another role I can continue to do that in … it’s something I take a look at,” Thune said. “Mitch is our leader, and I expect that to be the case” for the indefinite future.

The jocular Thune is well-liked among his colleagues, particularly those from the West, though he’s less of a partisan firebrand than Cornyn, in part because Thune is the chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, a bipartisan policy engine. Thune took a pass on running for president in 2016, viewing himself as another GOP senator in a crowded field of “establishment” politicians.

He’s still viewed by his colleagues as potential presidential material, while Cornyn is seen as more eager to succeed McConnell. Still, there are factions who argue each man could be party leader one day. Asked whether he aspires to be GOP leader, Thune glanced around the halls of a Senate hallway and said: “It’s a question of how long we have to stay around here.”

Whether Thune would receive a challenge for the whip job is a source of much speculation among senators and aides. Blunt is a former House whip and a tactician in the mold of McConnell, but he has not decided whether to seek either the Senate whip job or another role as policy chairman or conference chairman.

Barrasso, a wonky messaging man with policy expertise in health care and environmental issues, is also mentioned as a potential whip candidate, as is Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

“My focus is making sure we hold the majority,” said Barrasso, who is on the ballot in Wyoming next year but will have little trouble winning reelection. “It’s much more important that Republicans are in the majority than anything else in terms of who’s in the leadership position.”

Meanwhile, Portman is not interested in running for an elected position in leadership. The Ohio senator, who was just reelected last fall, is one of McConnell’s four so-called counsels and has a seat at the leadership table, including at the weekly meeting on Monday evenings.

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Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) was expected by many to run for the No. 4 policy committee job after angling for it in 2016. But Lee is not running, a spokesman said.

The No. 5 job, for vice chair, is likely to attract competition among the younger generation of Republicans seeking higher office. Sens. Cory Gardner of Colorado and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are possibilities, though several Republicans said Sens. Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia are the early favorites. Both are interested in leadership jobs and, importantly, would break up an all-male leadership team.

Fischer and Capito, like Portman, are also counsels to McConnell, as is Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, who may also be in the mix for a leadership job. But a likelier option for Wicker is to try to return as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee for the 2020 cycle — a job he held in the 2016 elections, when Republicans narrowly kept their majority.

One constant through the churn? McConnell sitting in the leader’s office, where next year he is set to become the longest serving GOP leader of all time.

“Mitch is real popular,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). “He’s gonna be there for quite a while.”

