The Coalition under the New South Wales premier, Mike Baird, retains a commanding lead over Luke Foley’s Labor even though 43% of voters reported they were less likely to vote Liberal in the state election on 28 March due to the recent performance of Tony Abbott.



The poll, conducted by Lonergan Research last weekend, found the Coalition leading Labor 55-45 on a two party preferred basis. This is consistent with other major polls.

The managing director of Lonergan Research, Chris Lonergan, said the fact that more than a quarter of voters (29%) intended to use their state vote as a protest against federal issues was significant.

Lonergan said the federal protest could be masked within the two-party-preferred vote, which has consistently shown the Coalition leading Labor.

“Depending on which parties receive these protest votes, and how people allocate their preferences, preference flows in 2015 could be different to those seen in 2011,” Lonergan said.

“As research companies typically use the last state election as a guide to preference flows, this may impact the accuracy of two-party-preferred figures.”

The “Abbott factor” was particularly marked among young voters, with 56% of 18 to 34 year olds reporting they were less likely to vote Liberal. Abbott had more support among senior voters, with 50% of those over 65 reporting they would be more likely to vote Liberal and 30% less likely to vote Liberal due to Abbott’s performance.

Baird’s personal popularity continues to play in his favour, particularly when combined with Foley’s lack of recognition, given he was elevated to the leadership less than three months ago.

Asked who would make the better premier, 52% of voters chose Baird, with 23% picking Foley and 25% remaining uncommitted two weeks out from the election.

The findings of the Independent Commission Against Corruption (Icac) appear to weigh heavily in voters minds. Ten Liberal MPs have had to resign or stand aside, including former premier Barry O’Farrell, and former Labor ministers Ian Macdonald and Eddie Obeid had corruption findings against them.

Asked whether corruption in NSW had been solved to their liking, 80% of voters reported that it was still a problem.

But 44% were unsure which party would deal better with corruption – 40% nominated the Liberals and 16% Labor.

Coal seam gas remains a salient issue in the campaign, as evidenced by the major parties scrambling to distance themselves from CSG and mining projects.

Labor has proposed a moratorium on CSG across the whole state, and the Coalition has cancelled a number of exploration licences, though critics argue they were the less active licences.

Three quarters of voters surveyed were concerned about the risk to water and farming land due to fracking and coal seam gas extraction techniques. And 62% of voters said they were less likely to vote for a party that supported the extraction of coal seam gas.

Baird’s key election policy of a 99-year lease of the electricity poles and wires remains unpopular, with more than half of voters (58%) saying the electricity transmission infrastructure should be kept in government hands, compared with 20% who prefer to lease it to the private sector. One in 10 (11%) would like the government to sell the infrastructure.

The Coalition hopes to raise $20bn from the sale to spend on infrastructure such as roads and public transport. Polling shows stronger support for spending on public transport than roads with over half (51%) reporting that public transport was most in need of additional funding, compared with roads at 38%.

The survey of 1,565 voters was conducted by phone on the weekend 13-16 March.