Trump visit could bolster US Indo-Pacific strategy

Trump: Presence not felt in Asean

With only four weeks to go before the 35th Asean-related summits kick off at Muangthong Thani, the White House has said nothing to indicate whether President Donald Trump will be coming to Bangkok. Asked about it these past couple of days, Washington movers and shakers have said in unison: Anything can happen. Mr Trump is now facing the threat of impeachment from a Democratic Party-led inquiry. It is pretty common these days to factor in a high level of unpredictability for all transactions with the US, especially when they involve the US presidency.

As the Asean chair, Thailand's top priority is to ensure that all leaders of the East Asia Summit come to Bangkok to take part in the region's most important gathering of the year. For the past 10 years, since the expansion of the East Asia Summit in 2010, the leaders of the US, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand have met with their Asean counterparts every year. It is a rare opportunity for them to spend quality time together to discuss major regional and global issues. But the levels of representative they send has differed from year to year.

In the case of Russia, President Vladimir Putin decided to attend the EAS for the first time in Singapore last year. His appearance made headlines, coming 13 years after he last attended, as the first foreign guest at the inaugural EAS in Kuala Lumpur in 2005. In the years since, either Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev or Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have represented Russia. In contrast, Chinese leaders have never missed an Asean-related summit since the establishment of diplomatic ties with Asean in 1991.

This year, if both Mr Trump and Mr Putin decide to come, it will be the first time that all the top EAS leaders take part in the summit. The Asean chair would be thrilled by that outcome. Earlier, Bangkok had hoped that invited European leaders from the UK, France and Germany would join other leaders in the pre-EAS meeting in early November. Given the crises now facing each of these leaders at home, it is highly likely that they will not be attending. Bangkok, however, is keeping its fingers crossed.

A few days ago, the Thai chair invited North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to attend the pre-EAS summit as a guest. Each year, the chair compiles a list of such guests. In 2017, for instance, EU President Donald Tusk and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came to Manila. Last year Singapore invited Chilean President Sebastian Pinera and Mr Trudeau to join the gathering.

If Mr Trump does decide to skip the Bangkok summit, he will miss out on an opportunity to sell his own idea of a "free and open Indo-Pacific" and to make his presence felt within Asean. Of course, he has visited Southeast Asia before for his two summits with North Korea. However, his absence at the crucial Asean-related summits in Bangkok would further undermine US commitments in the region.

Into his third year, Mr Trump still does not have a good EAS attendance record. His predecessor, Barack Obama, had a better record, having missed only one summit due to the US government shutdown in 2013. He was also the first Western leader to hold townhall-style meetings in various Asean capitals, most notably in Luang Prabang, Laos in 2016.

To be fair, despite the Trump administration's continued actions to upend Mr Obama's diplomatic legacy, including by pulling out of Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Agreement on climate change, one thing he has not yet changed substantially is the US policy towards Asean. Most of the popular US-Asean programmes, such as the Young Southeast Asian Leader Initiatives and US Connect, are still running. Unfortunately, however, key US diplomatic posts in Southeast Asian countries, including the US permanent representatives to Asean, have been vacant for nearly three years.

Strange as it may seem, pundits in Washington would readily concur that it is a blessing in disguise that the US president has not paid any attention to Asean. If he did so, he might end up tweeting daily comments on the nature of the grouping's leaders. As we all know, Mr Trump regularly ridicules the EU, as well as its leaders in numerous tweets.

At the moment, Asean-US relations are on autopilot. However, if this situation continues for too long without direction, those ties could fall by the wayside. In the past two years, US investment in Asean has fallen, while China's has doubled. Mr Trump should know that as a regional bloc, Asean has a combined GDP of US$2.8 trillion and a population of 650 million people -- larger than the EU. Today, Asean is the third-largest economy in the Indo-Pacific and the world's fifth largest.

Lest we forget, all 50 US states export to Asean, creating half a million jobs for Americans. Last year, nearly 1.2 million Asean tourists visited the US, spending $5 billion, and over 60,000 students attend US institutions of higher learning, contributing $2 billion. Meanwhile, 35% of the 21 million Asian-Americans are of Southeast Asian ethnicity. These figures come from the respected East-West Centre in Washington.

In a nutshell, Asean matters to the US, especially at a time when the US is competing with China for greater influence in the region. It is not an exaggeration to say that Mr Trump's mantra of "Make America Great Again" will never work if he shuns Asean and treats the bloc as an underrated regional player.

In the absence of Mr Trump's attendance and engagement, US ties will continue to be secondary to China's relationship with Asean, due to the extraordinary attention being paid to the region by leaders in Beijing. Other key dialogue partners, particularly Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, are on the same page when it comes to their deepening engagement with Asean. Their leaders understand the importance of face-to-face contact with Asean counterparts.

The Thai chair still hopes that, against all the odds, Mr Trump will decide to drop by Bangkok at the last minute -- even if it is just to get away from the turmoil surrounding him in Washington. Thailand is well prepared in case he does.