TWITTER/GETTY Professor Matt Qvotrup has prediction a Brexit campaign will win

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Matt Qvotrup, Professor of Political Science at Coventry University, whose modelling almost exactly predicted the result of the Scottish independence referendum, says that currently a vote to leave the EU would win by about four per cent. The former House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee says that Brexit is likely win because the current government has been in power for more than five years. He also said that a high turnout will almost certainly produce a decision by British voters to leave the EU among other factors which favour the Brexit campaign. Professor Qvotrup's research is based on the 43 previous referendums in the EU which he argues "follow a strict pattern" in terms of being able to predict the outcome of future votes.

Crucially, his analysis shows that if, as expected, David Cameron recommends a vote to stay in, it is likely to persuade voters to go in the opposite direction because of the length of time he has been prime minister. He said: "If a government holds a referendum early in office it is much more likely to win and there is a pattern of governments which have been there a long time losing. "If you look at previous referendums, a government loses 1.2 per cent of the vote for every year it is in office which means that after five years it is likely to lose. By the time we have our referendum David Cameron will have been in office for six or seven years." He pointed out that when the French rejected the EU constitution in 2005 Jacques Chirac had been President for 10 years, Bertie Ahern's government had also been in 10 year when Ireland rejected the Lisbon Treaty in 2008; and when Denmark famously rejected the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 its governing party had also been in power for a decade.

GETTY Qvotrup said the length of David Cameron's office will have an impact on voters

GETTY He pointed out Norway's strong economy saw voters there reject membership

In referendums people are far less likely to be persuaded they need the EU during prosperous times Professor Matt Qvotrup

Many commentators have claimed that a high turnout will help the "stay in" campaign, but this is rejected by Prof Qvotrup who says that high turnouts, as expected in the EU referendum, are more likely to lead to a rejection of the government position and EU as a whole. According to his research a turnout of 70 per cent or above will make it likely the Brexit campaign will win. He said: "Low turnouts are more influenced by people who are persuaded by the elites and are part of the political scene. Once the turnout goes up then you have more people who only think about politics passingly and they are more likely to reject the position by the government and other political elites." He pointed out that the surge in support for independence came from voters in parts of Scotland who had hardly voted before. Also Australia, which has high turnouts because people have to vote by law, has seen the government position rejected 36 out of 44 times in referendums.

GETTY The news is sure to be a boost to the Brexit campaign