We’re done with the West Coast swing and headed to the Bermuda greens of Florida. The par 70 7,150 yard PGA National Champion Course has hosted the Honda Classic since 2007. It’s a challenging course with narrow fairways and many sand hazards. Accuracy, ball striking, and course management are going to be key here so look for players good at Driving Distance, Scrambling, and Greens in Regulation. Long drivers aren’t necessarily out of contention as long as they can scramble well. Course history will also be important, as many players seem to play well here consistently. Players can run into a lot of troubles, especially on the infamous 15th, 16th, and 17th holes AKA The Bear Trap. It’s important to identify players who tend to get double, triple bogeys or worse and avoid them for the safer players. The field is decent in strength with many top names in attendance. It’s a bit more spread out and less top-heavy than last week’s field.

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High End Plays

Rory McIlroy $12,500

The 2012 winner and 2014 runner up is easily the Vegas favorite to win. He looked pretty good last week at Riviera and no longer costs over $13,000. With there being plenty of quality plays in the $6,000 range you can easily afford Rory this week, and he may be a popular pick.

Rickie Fowler $11,700

I usually don’t recommend using Rickie but he sticks out in every key statistical category I’m looking at, and he’s been putting great all season long. He’s been winning events overseas and last time we saw him he was in a playoff in Phoenix. His last 4 starts here have been solid but progressively worse finishes each time. I still think he’s very safe to make the cut and post a top 10 finish.

Hideki Matsuyama $11,300

Matsuyama overcame a flu scare last week to post an 11th place finish after his win at Phoenix. He tops the Tour in Tee to Green stats, but he’s been a little less accurate off the tee than in 2015. His only struggle has been putting. We’ll see if the switch to Bermuda grass changes things for him at all.

Adam Scott $11,000

Scott’s incredible Sunday at Riviera got him a 2nd place finish. That in addition to his strong fall season and T12 here previously may make him a popular play. I don’t think this kind of course suits his bombing style and he’s a far worse scrambler than the players around him in this range.

Phil Mickelson $10,800

Phil should be a very popular this week due to his recent play. He has a 2nd, 3rd, and 11th in his last 4 starts during the west coast swing and is playing at a tournament he came 17th in last year. He’s incredibly strong statistically except for Greens in Regulation which he struggles at. Despite missing greens, Phil’s Scrambling percentage is among the highest in the field and that’s what we’re looking for this week.

Patrick Reed $10,600

Phil is a great scrambler, but Reed is the best scrambler- at least in this field. He’s also great at Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation. He has fantastic course history here including a T7 last year. He continued his run of top 10 finishes with a 6th place finish at Pebble Beach and looks to pick up another one. Reed sticks out in Vegas odds, stats, course history, and form so he’s a perfect core play for both gpp and cash games.

Brendan Grace $10,300

Who the hell is this guy and why does he cost so much? Grace is a very skilled European Tour player who currently ranks 10th in the World Golf Rankings. He came T4 in the 2015 US Open and 3rd in the PGA Championship so he’s known to play great in strong fields. He had 4 top 10 finishes in 13 events last season and last we saw him during the fall, he came 5th in the WGC-HSBC Championships and 17th in the CIMB Classic.

Kevin Kisner $9,900

Kisner’s super high Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, and Putting stats stand out as great fits for this course. Hopefully recency bias from his missed cut keeps his ownership low in gpp games. I really like Kisner now that he’s under $10,000 and I think this course is perfect for him.

Russell Knox $9,700

Knox’s only two finishes here are 2nd and 3rd place. Knox clearly feels this course and his extremely high GIR and Scrambling stats are telling reasons why. I’m rostering Knox heavily in gpp and he’ll make my cash team.

Paul Casey $9,500

Casey’s course history also sticks out here as he’s finished T3, T12, and T4 with only 1 missed cut in 4 tries. Casey is a top tier GIR player and can drive with both length and accuracy. His scrambling isn’t the greatest so that should keep him out of your cash lineups, but his added power gives him higher eagle %s so play him in gpp.

Mid Range Plays

Zach Johnson $8,800

Johnson has the exact accurate and scrambling skillset that we’re looking for here. He didn’t make the cut here last year but was fine in his other performances. He tends to play well on par 70 courses and he has 2 top 15 finishes early on this season, so he has appeal in both cash and gpp.

Ryan Palmer $8,700

Palmer has looked spectacular at PGA National including a T2 finish in 2014. He’s also started off the 2016 season with 4 straight cuts made. His bombing style doesn’t seem to fit the statistical mold but his course history shows he’s been able to pull it off here. Keep him in gpp due to his low scrambling numbers.

Luke Donald $8,600

Donald is an absolute course horse here with 5/5 cuts made and 4 straight top 10 finishes. Donald is an elite scrambler and he’s been making cuts lately, so he seems like a solid cash game play. His top 10 finishes are also very appealing for gpp and I’ll probably be using him as a highly owned core play.

Graeme McDowell $8,400

McDowell started off the season with a piping hot fall season, followed by a few letdowns early on. Now we haven’t seen him in a few weeks so it’ll be hard to guess which side of him we’ll see. He’s one of the most accurate players on tour and he’s also near the top in GIR and Scrambling stats too. He has great course history here with 5/6 cuts made and 3 top 10 finishes.

Brendan Steele $8,300

Just like last year, Steele is making cut after cut early on in the season. He’s made 5/5 cuts at this tournament too so he makes for a good cash play this week. When you look at vegas odds sometimes you can spot cash plays by comparing win odds to top 20 odds. Steele’s win odds aren’t as good as those in his price range, but his top 20 odds are the best. This is a sign of a low-ceiling high-floor play.

David Lingmerth $8,200

Lingmerth is fresh off of two straight MCs so he’s probably dead to the field, but he’s placed 25th and 8th his last two times at Honda and when he’s not missing cuts he’s posting top 10 finishes. He’s a very high-risk high-upside play in gpp tournaments.

Fredrik Jacobson $8,200

Jacobson was the 2nd highest owned player last week and screwed over a huge chunk of the field with a missed cut. How much will that hurt his ownership? Last year something similar happened to him in this tournament. He was riding a wave of 6 straight top 30 finishes, then he missed the cut. I’m just looking at his scrambling and putting numbers and rolling with him again. Hopefully the field will be scared off of him.

Jason Dufner $8,000

Dufner is a perfect 6/6 in cuts made at Honda with 3 top 20 finishes in that span. He’s cooled down a lot since his win at Career Builder but he’s great at making cuts and should be safe for cash.

Webb Simpson $8,000

Webb has looked good early on in the season, riding a hot streak of 3 top 20 finishes. He’s above average in every statistic except putting. If he can get it rolling right on the Bermuda greens then he can finally capitalize on his excellent GIR, tee-to-green, and scrambling game. Simpson sticks out as a play Vegas seems to be on as well.

***Editors Note – Webb Simpson has pulled out of the Honda Classic and will not accrue any points. Get him out of your lineups!

Russell Henley $7,900

Having good course history is one thing, but Henley also boasts a championship here in 2014. He’s 3/3 in cuts made but he’s been in bad form recently. This could be due to his last 2 events being at bomber’s courses. PGA National suits Henley’s accuracy/scrambling/putting game well so I could see him getting back on track here.

Charles Howell III $7,5000

Howell kept his cut streak alive at 10 straight cuts but broke his streak of 7 straight top 25s. He blew up after making the cut and finishing 75th but it was at a course he’s been historically bad at. Howell gets another course he’s been successful at with a perfect 6/6 cuts made. He’s not the most accurate off of the tee but he’s a good scrambler to make up for it. He should once again be one of the most popular picks on the slate.

Jamie Lovemark $7,200

Despite getting back on track with his 5th top 20 of the season last week, Lovemark remains low in price and should be heavily owned. Lovemark’s 69% scrambling rate is one of the best on Tour. He’s played this event several times before, making the cut in has last two tries.

Value Plays

Si Woo Kim $7,000

Kim finally missed a cut but I’m going to be back on him big time. He seems to be better at the par 70 accuracy types of courses and he scrambles at a very high rate.

Sean O’Hair $7,000

He’s made 4/5 cuts with 3 top 25 finishes in that span. He’s been playing pretty well during the early season and I like his scrambling and putting numbers.

Scott Piercy $6,900

An underpriced cut making machine. He has good history here and a T5 finish so he makes for a good cash game play.

Sung Kang $6,900

Worth a flier in gpp because of his recent T8 and T17 finishes. He’s up and down the leaderboards a lot, as he can post ridiculously low scores one day then poor scores the next day. His stats are mediocre but he looks like a good scrambler.

Adam Hadwin $6,800

Hadwin is on a cut making streak with 3 top 20 finishes in his last 4 tournaments. He finished 31st in his only attempt here last year. His putter is red hot so he’s going to be making a ton of birdies. None of his other stats really stick out but a hot putter is a very good thing.

Chris Stroud $6,800

Worth a sprinkle in gpp because of course history. Until he withdrew from last year’s tournament he had posted 3 straight top 15 finishes at Honda along with 6 made cuts in a row. He’s playing horribly right now, but he might be worth sticking onto 1 team in a gpp just in case he returns to form here.

Jeff Overton $6,800

Overton may not be as good of a golfer as he once was, but he’s posted some good finishes early on in the season and he’s made 5 straight cuts here to go with 3 top 10 finishes.

Jason Bohn $6,700

Remember when he was a $10,000+ guy? He hasn’t even been missing cuts but his price keeps falling. While his course history here is pretty bad, he’s near the top in driving accuracy % and he hits greens in regulation at a high clip.

Patton Kizzire $6,700

Strange price drop for a guy doing so well. His Vegas odds stick out in this range considerably and he should be the highest owned of anyone under $7,000. His driving accuracy % is terrible, which may get him into trouble here. He’s still a great tee to green player somehow and he’s proven to be a great putter so far.

Jerry Kelly $6,300

Kelly ranks among the top in driving accuracy and scrambling and has made all 6 cuts so far on the season. The problem is he’s missed 4 straight cuts here. It’s strange because before that skid he finished 3rd and 12th in the previous years.

Colt Knost $6,100

Knost is the exact type of player you’re looking for this week statistically. He has superior driving accuracy and ranks highly in scrambling and putting. He’s also been riding a streak of 6/7 cuts made with 3 top 25 finishes.

Tyrone Van Aswegen $5,900

Aswegen continues to make cut after cut and has been posting some top 20 finishes too. He excels at par 70 courses and he’s a good scrambler. In his only appearance at the Honda Classic he finished T24 so he should be a great value play for under $6,000.

My cheat sheet with course history, odds, recent form, and stats is posted in the Slack group, join the discussion on #pga-talk