assembly-elections

Updated: Dec 29, 2018 00:53 IST

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) proved to be more than the proverbial elephant in the room for the Congress in the assembly elections held in the three Hindi belt states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in November and December.

In May, the party forged a post-poll alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular) and BSP in Karnataka to prevent the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from capturing power. This triggered talks of a pre-poll alliance between the Congress and BSP in the Hindi heartland states.

The alliance wasn’t to be; the BSP decided to go it alone in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and struck a pact with Ajit Jogi and the Communist Party of India in Chhattisgarh. A failure to enter into an alliance with the BSP was expected to damage the Congress’s chances in these three states.

Even though the Congress has managed to capture power, it is worth looking at how the BSP factor played out in these polls.

At the aggregate level, the BSP has improved its performance by winning 10 seats across the three states, which is two more than what it won in 2013. However, this is still five seats fewer than what the party won in the 2008 polls. This is entirely due to the BSP’s performance in Madhya Pradesh, where it won only two seats, compared to seven in 2008. (See Chart 1)

What explains the BSP’s losses in Madhya Pradesh? One reason could be a dent in Dalit support for the party. In the 2008 and 2013 elections, the BSP’s vote share in the scheduled caste (SC) reserved seats was greater than in general seats in all three states.

SC reserved seats have a relatively higher share of the Dalit population. So a higher vote share for the BSP in these seats suggests bigger support among Dalit voters. This is in keeping with the BSP’s Ambedkarite origins.

The BSP lost its vote share advantage in SC reserved seats in the 2018 polls in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The fall is much bigger in Madhya Pradesh. This suggests that the party may have faced desertions from even its core voters. (See Chart 2)

We have analysed only those seats in which the BSP contested.

To be sure, these statistics do not mean that the BSP has lost its significance in MP and Rajasthan. It played spoiler in 50 and 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in the 2018 elections. A party is termed spoiler if its vote share in a given constituency is bigger than the victory margin.

In MP, the Congress and the BJP were affected in 23 seats each, where the BSP acted as the spoiler. In Rajasthan, the BJP was at the receiving end in 16 seats, while the Congress lost 11 seats due to the BSP playing spoiler. (See Chart 3)

These statistics show that the BSP will continue to remain an important political player, both before and after elections, in these Hindi belt states. However, there is one factor which may have made the BSP factor less harmful for the Congress at the current juncture.

Even if the Congress and the BSP cannot decide on a pre-poll alliance, the BSP’s chances of supporting the BJP after elections are extremely low. This might embolden the Congress to drive a hard bargain vis-à-vis the BSP in the days to come.

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