Dwight Ball started the year with a majority government, and is ending it with a minority government. (Paul Daly/Canadian Press)

When Dwight Ball walked away from the spring election, he struck an optimistic tone, at least for someone who had just guided a majority government into rocky minority waters.

"This can work," Ball pronounced , before adding, "and it can work right here in our province."

The last part is significant because the House of Assembly has historically been terrain where majorities romp, play and do as they wish. Voters here tend to put most of their chips with one party, and stick with them for a while. Parties have counted on that system to do as they please … at least while they're in charge.

But in May, we wound up with the Liberals retaining 20 seats out of the 40 in the legislature — just one seat shy of a majority.

One might have thought this would lead to a new era of consensus politics, where parties would reach across the aisle to solve Newfoundland and Labrador's tricky problems — and we have a lot of them at the moment — in an unprecedented spirit of co-operation.

Well, as Santa might say, ho ho ho.

That spirit has not materialized.

Not only that, it's becoming clear that Dwight Ball is having some difficulty counting on the support of those in his own caucus.

7 months on a leaky boat

Let me set a scene for you. Earlier this fall, one of my colleagues got wind of what was being said at a meeting in Confederation Building — from no less than three individuals. Moreover, these separate notes arrived almost in real time.

As with cabinet, there's a been a long, long tradition of caucus confidentiality.

Ball, left, campaigned in May with Christopher Mitchelmore in the fishing community of Port au Choix. (Terry Roberts/CBC)

Rather than being a tight drum, at the moment the Liberal-led Confederation Building strikes me as a bit more like a colander. The odds are against sensitive information in this administration staying a secret.

When information bursts forth, I often wonder one thing: who benefits? Leaks sometimes are in the interests of the public's right to know, or because someone has witnessed an injustice or a breach of ethics.

However, a lot of the information that's been seeping out of Confederation Building is just political machinery, designed to slag an enemy, cast someone in a more favourable light, score a political point or two.

These are all Dwight Ball headaches. A minority premier must handle backbench grievances; a majority premier does not.

We're a little more than half a year into the new world order of a minority government, and one thing seems clear to me: every single member of the Liberal caucus must surely have realized by now they have power.

If this was a game of musical chairs, the clamour to keep a seat of power would be more pronounced — and highly individual. This game of thrones is not about the overall good or moving in a common direction, but what each individual can get. "What's in it for me" would logically be the typical thinking in a caucus where teetering on the edge is now the status quo.

Dwight Ball must know this. While one extra seat would make a world of difference in his government, losing the support of a single MHA on a critical issue — or, worse, in a defection to the Independent benches or to an opposition party — would be a crisis.

The spectre of that crisis hangs over everything at the moment.

No one knows what Mitchelmore and Ball discussed

Earlier this month, we saw — in flagrant absurdity — what it means to have the chips equally spread across the House during the debate over what should happen to cabinet minister Christopher Mitchelmore. He was the subject of a scathing report into his conduct in the hiring of former top Liberal aide Carla Foote in a job at The Rooms. Legislative proceedings went long into the night, and both sides had to keep their seats filled as much as possible, even though members had legitimate reasons to be somewhere else. One MHA was prevented from leaving even though a sibling had died.

I don't think it's coincidence that Mitchelmore — who as tourism minister tweeted about pretty much everything he ever did — has been mostly silent, and the one thing Ball praised him for was his loyalty

Usually, the legislature empties out in off-hour sittings. Not so in this new environment.

And for what? Let's not forget what the Mitchelmore situation meant for Ball. Here's a cabinet minister who was sanctioned by the House, who apologized for his actions and yet who voted against punishment against himself, and whom Ball described as a "loyal soldier" after he said the premier did not direct him to do anything.

A significant note: this was what's called a whipped vote; it's fair to believe that had any other member voted as Mitchelmore did, they would have faced discipline.

We don't know what conversations Mitchelmore and Ball had with each other, but I don't think it's coincidence that Mitchelmore — who as tourism minister tweeted about pretty much everything he ever did — has been mostly silent, and the one thing Ball praised him for was his loyalty.

Keeping things together seems to be the key thing for Ball. Or, looking at another way, putting up with personalities, behaviours and outbursts.

After being thrown out of the Liberal caucus in 2018, Eddie Joyce and Dale Kirby sat as Independents. Kirby didn't run in the subsequent election. (Katie Breen/CBC)

Let's not forget that Ball just last year threw not one but two colleagues out of both cabinet and caucus after receiving complaints about their behaviour. One of them, Eddie Joyce, continues to sit as an Independent. Conspicuously, he voted with the government on the Mitchelmore issue.

Options are now sharply different

But Ball ousted Joyce and Dale Kirby when he had a clear majority.

In a delicate minority, his options are considerably different.

MHAs might now feel emboldened by this state of affairs. Ball, after all, needs them much more than they need him. We've seen some curious things, including cabinet ministers like Gerry Byrne speak on behalf of issues that aren't actually in their portfolios.

As the next budget is being drawn up — and this year's situation has already turned out to be worse than thought, given the fiscal update released a few days ago — cabinet ministers and caucus members will be jockeying for their favourite issues to be included or protected. Imagine the political headaches of keeping each MHA happy, while dealing with a menacing budget crunch and an Opposition that could pull the trigger at any time.

In a poll released Friday, Ball placed second-last among the provincial premiers in terms of voter approval. (Katie Breen/CBC)

I am quite sure that the Mitchelmore flap has brought a sour flavour to the Christmas punch at Liberal parties.

The latest quarterly tracking poll from Narrative Research (formerly Corporate Research Associates) has approval for the Liberals up, although that research was done in the first few weeks of November, well before the Mitchelmore Report was released.

No doubt Friday's news, from the Angus Reid Institute, that Ball's approval rating will take the smiles away. That online poll, significantly, was taken between Dec. 9 and Dec. 11, after the whole Mitchelmore fiasco played out. (Big proviso: the poll was done online, and not by phone interviews, and the sample size was small, making the margin of error more than seven per cent.)

So, there you have it. A premier with sliding approval ratings. A fiscal crisis. A scandal that proves malfeasance in hiring. A gloom in the party over its credibility. A sense that some in the party are going rogue.

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