TrendForce is predicting that total worldwide smartphone sales will fall by around five percent in the first quarter of this year. If so, this will be the first fall in two years.

It doesn’t mean demand for smartphones is actually dropping, but rather than the upward trend has slowed to the point that the seasonal effect – people buying smartphones as holiday gifts – is now bigger than the overall growth rate.

Apple and Samsung of course maintain their lead, though Sony saw significant growth in its home territory of Japan, and LG’s share grew 57 percent year-on-year to a 4.2 percent market share thanks largely to sales of the Nexus handsets it makes for Google.

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