Liberal Budget Gains Disappear

Progressive Conservative Majority, Liberals lose party status if an election held today

Toronto, April 19th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1126 Ontario voters, the gap between the Progressive Conservatives and their provincial challengers has widened once again, with almost half (46%) saying they would vote PC if an election were held today.

One-quarter (27%) say they would support the NDP, while one-fifth (21%) say they would support the Liberals.

Few (4%) would support the Green Party or another party (2%).

Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the PCs include those aged 45-54 (52%) or 55-64 (50%), male (59%), and anyone earning more than $40,000 including: $40,000-$60,000 (47%), $60,000-$80,000 (47%), $80,000-$100,000 (49%), and the most wealthy (50%), parents (51%), the least educated (56%), living in Eastern (50%) or Southwestern Ontario (48%), or the 905 (49%).

Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (33%), females (33%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (29%) or $40,000-$60,000 (32%), with a college/university degree (30%) or post-graduate degree (29%), and living in Toronto (30%), Southwestern Ontario (28%), or Northern Ontario (29%).

Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (24%) or 65+ (27%), female (26%), the least wealthy (29%), with a post-graduate degree (30%), and living in Toronto (28%).

PC Super-majority on the Horizon

If an election were held today, we project a PC majority government with 94 seats.

The NDP would serve as official opposition with 23 seats, while the Liberals would secure only 7 seats, one too few for party status in Ontario’s legislature.

More than half of Ontarians think the PCs will win

More than half (54%) say that the PCs will win the provincial election. One-fifth (19%), about the same as current Liberal support, say it will be the Liberals. 1 in 10 (10%) say it will be the NDP.

A hopeful few (1%) say it will be the Green Party, while one-sixth (16%) don’t know who will win.

Almost 9 in 10 (87%) of PC supporters think the PCs will win.

Contrast that support with (54%) of Liberal supporters who think the Liberals will win, and the quarter (27%) of NDP supporters who say they NDP will win.

Ford approval and disapproval even, Wynne still low

Kathleen Wynne see’s approval from one-fifth (18%), and disapproval from three-quarters (73%). Only 1 in 10 (9%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score (Approve-Disapprove) is -54.

Doug Ford’s approval and disapproval are even, with (37%) saying they approve and (40%) saying they disapprove. One-quarter (23%) say they do not know.

Doug Ford’s net favourable score is -3.

Andrea Horwath sees the best net favourable score, with approval of (37%) and disapproval of (32%). A third (31%) say they do not know about Andrea Horwath.

Her net favourable score is +5

“The bump in support following the Liberal budget is gone,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "The Progressive Conservatives are back where we’ve seen them for the past year, and Doug Ford looks on track to be Premier in a few months. While campaigns matter, and it’s hard to count out an effective campaigner like Kathleen Wynne, the fact that the shine from the Liberals’ billions of dollars of promises has already diminished, must be a blow to their chances.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.