Progressive Conservative support is eroding less than a year after Premier Doug Ford’s majority victory, a new poll suggests.

The Pollara Strategic Insights survey found 31 per cent of respondents now prefer Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, compared to 30 per cent for Ford’s Tories and 26 per cent for the Liberals under interim Leader John Fraser. Mike Schreiner’s Greens have surged to 11 per cent.

Pollara chief strategist Don Guy said a muddled PC agenda and “a hyper-partisan legislature” have been especially helpful to the Liberals and the Greens.

In last June’s election, the Tories won 40.5 per cent of the vote, the NDP 33.6 per cent, the Liberals 19.6 per cent, and the Greens 4.6 per cent.

“The core Ford ‘value-for-money’ positioning and its no-pain-solutions promise was almost perfect for middle-of-the-road Ontario,” Guy said Thursday.

“But the Ford reality has unfortunately been a distracted, diffuse agenda that has sucked up much of the government’s communications oxygen catering to its base,” he said.

“As a result, a backlash is gaining momentum, putting newly won seats at risk.”

Using an online panel, Pollara surveyed 1,527 Ontario voters between April 28 and May 1. A sample of this size would have a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, 19 time out of 20.

The poll found 30 per cent of respondents approve of the government, with 64 per cent disapproving and 6 per cent unsure.

Among respondents who voted PC in 2018, just 69 per cent now approve of the Tories, with 29 per cent saying they disapprove and 2 per cent uncertain.

When asked for reasons why they cast ballots for the Tories, 70 per cent said “to get rid of the Kathleen Wynne Liberals” with 42 per cent citing “time for a change, generally” and 25 per cent saying they “have always voted PC.”

Only 21 per cent said it was because they “like Doug Ford.” Similarly, 21 per cent voted for the Tories for cheaper gasoline prices. That’s slightly behind the 22 per cent who said they voted PC because they oppose the “carbon tax.”

Only 8 per cent voted Conservative to expand the sale of beer and wine to corner stores, while 4 per cent said it was because Ford was “bringing back buck-a-beer pricing.”

Five per cent supported the Tories last June because of the promise to build more subways in Toronto

Guy said the April 11 budget — with its controversial cutting of some services despite overall record spending — has not rolled out well for the government.

“Ham-handed cuts are crippling the core promise for swing voters — governing for the people,” the pollster noted.

“As a result, the swing voters who put the PCs in office are hearing only one meta-message from Ford: ‘Hulk Smash.’ And they are turning away,” he said, referring to the motto of Marvel’s Incredible Hulk.

Pollara found backing for the Tories was down in Toronto, where they sit third behind the New Democrats and Liberals, as well as in Eastern and Northern Ontario.

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The governing party is holding steady in the 905 ahead of the Liberals and New Democrats while the NDP leads in Hamilton and Niagara.

In Southwestern Ontario, the Tories narrowly lead the NDP with the Liberals in third.

Pollara’s findings echo those in a Corbett Communications poll published last week in the Star. That survey found opposition to changes to education, including larger class sizes and forcing students to take online high school courses.

Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

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