Zoe Daniel reported this story on Friday, October 1, 2010 18:24:00

MARK COLVIN: The announcement from Burma's military government that they'll release the Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi after the November elections has met with mostly cynicism.



The democracy leader has spent most of the last 20 years under house arrest, since her party won a landslide victory in the last elections in 1990.



Now, with her party effectively banned, the military regime has announced that they will release her six days after the forthcoming poll.



But her supporters say the announcement is designed to legitimise what won't be a democratic election.



South East Asia correspondent Zoe Daniel reports.



ZOE DANIEL: The release of Aung San Suu Kyi should be cause for celebration, but instead the announcement that she'll be allowed out of detention has met with a weary response from her supporters.



Soe Aung is a Burmese activist living in Thailand.



SOE AUNG: When military regime say things and what they do is totally different. We have seen that many times in the past so we are very sceptical about this news.



ZOE DANIEL: Aung San Suu Kyi has been in and out of detention since her party won a landslide at the last election in Burma in 1990.



The military junta never recognised the result, and has since tried to neutralise the influence of the revered democracy campaigner known as "the lady" by the people of Burma.



This period of house arrest began in 2003. It's already been extended three times in breach of international law. It was last extended for 18 months after a bizarre incident last year when an American man swam across the lake to her home.



But her international lawyer Jared Genser says he'll only believe she's going to be released when it happens.



JARED GENSER: Several government officials have apparently told members of the media that she will indeed be released in accordance with Burmese law on November 13th. However - and that would be six days after their scheduled November 7th election - but I would note and emphasise in fact that the regime has publicly and repeatedly actually said that she was going to be released on prior occasions and then have not followed through on those promises.



So I tend to believe what I see the regime do, not what they say they're going to do.



ZOE DANIEL: Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, has effectively been banned because of her involvement. Those with police records are banned from political participation. Aung San Suu Kyi has called on Burmese people to boycott the vote although some breakaway members of her own party will run.



Opposition politicians have reported intimidation and ethnic minority villages engaged in an insurgency against the government have been barred from voting in a clear attempt to skew the poll which already had little credibility.



There's serious speculation that those ethnic groups may rise up after the election, escalating a long running border conflict into something resembling widespread civil war.



Soe Aung from the Forum for Democracy in Burma expects that the country's military rulers will be reluctant to allow Aung San Suu Kyi to regain prominence in that environment. So, even if she is released, it's likely she'll be rearrested if she takes to the streets among the people.



SOE AUNG: If she is going to meet the people and do what she has to do and what her political party has been doing is reaching out to people and helping the people in whatever possible way they can and she will no doubt take part in this activity or these activities so that it may put her under detention or arrest again by the military regime.



ZOE DANIEL: It's likely Aung San Suu Kyi's release, if it happens, will be highly conditional.



Meanwhile, the Burmese government this week has promised a free and fair vote.



This is Zoe Daniel reporting for PM.