dropout blues.jpg

Many educators are confident Oregon schools have adopted new practices that will work to help the state cure its dropout blues. The state has one of the worst on-time graduation rates in the country and has only managed to register a substantial gain in one of the past six years.

(Randy L. Rasmussen / The Oregonian /2015)

Oregon high schools have a terrible track record of getting students to earn diplomas, and despite years of talk about doing better, have produced just one significant bump in graduation rates in the past seven years.

The class of 2015 achieved that 2 percentage point increase, with 74 percent graduating on time.

But as the school year gets into full swing this week, with students from Beaverton to Roseburg heading back to class, education-watchers point to widespread signs that graduation rates will remain headed in the right direction.

Schools are helping more freshmen get off to a successful start, they say, and reacting faster and more skillfully to early warning signs such as failing a course or missing too much school.

Experts say there's increasing evidence administrators know what works -- and are putting it into practice.

In Hillsboro, there's a new emphasis on connecting students to the world of work, and it's paying off, said Brooke Nova, coordinator of career and college pathways.

Glencoe High students Ruth Teklu, left, and Becca McInally sell handmade skincare products from their company, Glow: A Cosmetics Company. They launched Glow and sold hundreds of dollars worth of face cream and body scrubs at Hillsboro's Tuesday Market as part of the Hillsboro School District's efforts to connect all students to a career of their choice and promote teen entreprenuership. Students who are excited about their future see a reason to stay in school and learn skills, educators say.

Connecting students to a chosen career begins in kindergarten now and continues through middle school and into internships with local employers completed by one-third of high school students, she said.

The proportion of ninth-graders with enough credits to be on track for graduation has risen substantially, to 83 percent, state figures show. And it's likely the district will graduate more than 80 percent of its students on time, Nova said.

"It comes down to relevancy," Nova said. "If students feel a purpose for going to class, to connect that to interests they have in a career, so they have that end goal, that really helps."

In Roseburg, a new effort begins Tuesday, the first day of class. The high school there will operate a full-fledged "early warning system," a concept that is suddenly being talked about in districts large and small.

At Roseburg High, every freshman will be watched closely for repeat absences, failing grades in core academic classes and serious behavior incidents. If any occur, a team of adults will intervene immediately to address root causes.

Roseburg is the seat of Douglas County, which has Oregon's third-worst graduation rate, 64 percent. Roseburg's rate, at 77 percent, is slightly above the state average. But it's far from where it should be, said Roseburg High Principal Jill Weber, and remains below 70 percent among low-income students and students of color.

Research makes clear that a good start in high school is essential to graduating, Weber said, hence her decision to focus the early warning system on ninth graders.

"I firmly believe that impacting freshmen is where we are going to make that difference," she says.

Nettie Legters, a national expert on how high schools can change to raise graduation rates, left Johns Hopkins University's Everybody Graduates center in April 2015 to take a job at Portland-based Education Northwest. There, she helps Northwest states and school districts improve. She's gotten an up-close look at graduation initiatives in Oregon and says she likes what she's seen.

"I am pretty optimistic about Oregon's future," she said.

But Toya Fick, head of the student advocacy group Oregon Stand for Children and a lead backer of a November ballot measure that would direct more money to high school graduation initiatives, says progress is genuine - but far overstated.

"We are excited about the pockets of success happening. But they are just that: pockets," Fick said.

More money and more focus is needed to make graduation rates rise for all students, not just those lucky enough to attend a school or district that's making true headway, she said.

This year, for instance, the state doubled grants to expand high school career-technical programs to $9 million. But that was enough to fund just one-third of what high schools requested. Fick said that's a pity because career-tech classes are a proven lever to raise graduation rates.

In Oregon's class of 2014, 88 percent of the 14,000 students who took at least two related hands-on career courses graduated on time, 16 points better than the state average for all students, said Daniel Adams, a state accountability specialist.

Taking three career-tech classes is proven to raise graduation rates among boys, something Oregon sorely needs to see happen. Boys graduate at a distinctly lower rate than girls, 70 percent vs. 78 percent.

If voters approve Measure 98, high schools would receive $800 per student if they agree to do three things: expand career-technical courses, add courses that carry college credit and do dropout prevention -- including carefully tracking grades and attendance beginning in ninth grade.

"What we need is not the hodgepodge we have created," Fick said. "We clearly are in a place where we need a lot of this happening in all of our high schools."

Legters said she bases her optimism on statewide efforts, not just bright spots in districts including North Clackamas, Corbett and Woodburn.

Leadership is key, and "that is something I am really seeing in spades in Oregon," Legters said.

Schools that excel at keeping freshmen on track

Percent of students on track by the start of sophomore year, fall 2015. Schools are listed in the order by which they outperform other schools with similar demographics.

Corbett School

>95%

Nyssa High

>95

Irrigon High

90%

Gold Beach High

>95

Redmond High

92

Cascade High

94

McMinnville High

88

David Douglas Hig

h 82

Sherwood High

>95

Wilson High

>95

Cleveland High

94

Gladstone High

91

Clackamas High

94

Franklin High

85

source: Analysis of Oregon Department of Education data

Helping more students graduate is the clear No. 1 goal at the Oregon Department of Education and is Gov. Kate Brown's highest priority for public schools, Legters said.

Legters noted Brown created a high-level position devoted to raising graduation rates, called the education innovation officer, and said Brown chose a well qualified person, former Bethel Superintendent Colt Gill.

Gill implemented an early warning system in Bethel, a district near Eugene. He also knows how to run an Oregon school district, and is eagerly investigating the challenges and best practices in ushering students to diplomas in diverse parts of the state, Legters said.

Oregon is behind the curve, Legters acknowledges. Roughly 30 other states have early warning systems, while Oregon is still contemplating one, spurred on by Gill. But momentum is building, she said.

That was evident, Legters said, at a conference in Bend this summer that brought together hundreds of high school counselors, principals, employers and representatives from higher education.

Schools that fail to keep many freshmen on track

Percent of students on track by the start of sophomore year, fall 2015. Schools are listed in order by how far they trail schools with similar demographics.

Central Linn High

46%

Metropolitan Learning Center

52

Madras High

50

Willamina High

52

South Umpqua High

58

Redmond Proficiency Academy

54

Vernonia High

64

Reynolds High

63

Gervais High

70

Barlow High

71

Estacada High

66

Myrtle Poin

t 65

Sandy High

70

North Bend High

59

North Medford

67

source: Analysis of Oregon Department of Education data

Teams from regions across the state forged plans to take steps including helping employers and schools become better connected and having community colleges contact new high school graduates over the summer to keep plans to enroll in in the fall from fizzling.

"We are hoping it will start impacting the graduation rate right away in some areas," said Lori Ellis, who oversees mentoring for middle and high school students at scores of schools for Oregon's higher education agency.

Oregon's lowest graduation rates are in rural communities with high unemployment and child poverty. Coos County is worst, at 57 percent, but doesn't have a sense of urgency in proportion to the nearly 400 teens who drop out each year. Young people who fail to earn a diploma, compared with those who do, are less likely to earn a living wage, to find full-time work, to stay married and stay out of jail.

But some rural communities have exceptional results. Grant, Union, Lake and Malheur counties, all in remote stretches of eastern Oregon, have some of the state's very best graduation rates.

Cascade High School, which serves three small towns on the southeastern fringe of Salem, has one of the state's highest rates of ninth-graders who make it to 10th grade with all the credits they need - 6-1/2 - to be on track to graduate in four years.

That success rate, 94 percent, is 14 points higher than at the typical school with a similar student body. Not surprisingly, Cascade also boasts an 87 percent graduation rate.

Principal Matt Thatcher has earned the respect of fellow principals. They elected him president of Oregon's school administrator's group, the Confederation of School Administrators.

He says hiring great teachers who care about kids and are willing to do whatever it takes to help them succeed is the most important thing he does.

Thatcher created an early warning system that is so focused on being early, it begins when students are in eighth grade. Middle school teachers and counselors help find the 25 to 30 students most likely to falter in ninth grade, and he then puts them into a special class taught by just the right teacher to prevent it from happening.

The class those students take, called freshman focus, covers study skills, accountability and organization - and more.

"We are going to do whatever it takes, whether that means check in with you every day, call your parents, help you after school or in the summer," Thatcher said. "You are going to have to work really hard to resist the interventions we are providing."

Gill, the state's point person on graduation, cautions against expecting huge near-term jumps in the statewide rate. Unlike expanding career-tech courses and combating chronic absenteeism, he said, some key steps may take years to pay off.

The state switched kindergartners from half-day to full-day schedules last year and added 1,500 high-quality preschool slots this school year. Those will surely raise Oregon's graduation rate, Gill said - but in the classes of 2027 and 2029.

He said Oregon also has a plan to systematically improve instruction for students learning English as their second language and has devoted millions of dollars to expanding college-credit courses for high school students. Both will translate into more students earning diplomas, he said.

Gill and the Oregon Department of Education will recommend a state-led early warning system by October and a state plan for battling sky-high chronic absenteeism rates before 2017, he said.

In Reynolds, one of Oregon's 15 largest districts, leaders have pointed year after year to changes they were sure would improve its moribund rates, long among the worst in Oregon.

Still, Reynolds High has remained a dropout factory. In 2015, just 58 percent of students made it across the finish line in four years.

Educators in Reynolds School District have worked hard to raise graduation rates, knowing how important a diploma is to a young person's future. Still, just 58 percent of Reynolds students made it across the finish line on time in 2015.

Reynolds faces challenges: 70 percent of its students are low-income, slightly more than half are non-white and one-third have a native language other than English. But it underachieves nonetheless.

Neighboring David Douglas - with an even higher share of minority students, low-income students and English learners - managed to graduate 74 percent of its students on time.

Reynolds Assistant Superintendent Frank Caropelo, who took the job last year after working in graduation-superstar Albany schools, says Reynolds High is about to have a break-through performance. He won't say, however, if that will come with the class of 2017, 2019 or even later.

"Our primary goal is high school graduation," Caropelo said. "That is our focus in all of our work at high school, middle school and elementary. It's all aligned to that as our success marker."

Years-long efforts to keep more freshmen on track are finally working, he said. The school managed to get 63 percent of ninth-graders to earn six credits during 2014-15, up from 49 percent the previous year. Last school year's figures aren't official yet, but Caropelo says Reynolds High kept more than 80 percent of ninth-graders on track.

Suspensions and expulsions, "which we know don't work for kids" because they cost valuable learning time, were down for the third year in a row, he said. And more ninth-graders than ever before - about 150, or 20 percent of the incoming class - took part in a summer program to help students who struggled in middle school ramp up to the demands of high school.

There is no single solution, Caropelo said, and he sees progress on varied fronts.

"There are a lot of little things that need to be done right," he said. "We know that we can do better."

-- Betsy Hammond