Let’s just get to it.

1. Until we know better, Luka Doncic is the best prospect in the draft at every position and in every role but center.

I don’t know if Doncic will be able to initiate at the NBA level, though there’s at least a decent chance. But even if Doncic can’t do that, or can only do so part time, he could be the most valuable off-ball offensive player we’ve seen in the last twenty years. Anything Draymond Green or Kevin Love can do on offense, Doncic can do better and with more ease. In that case, imagine Doncic a lot like Lonzo Ball (who I’d argue has been a top 20-25 NBA player in the last 15 games he’s played) except bigger with a better handle, better shake, more ability to punish switches inside (if small) and on the outside (if big), but with slightly less preternatural ball movement, less pure vertical and less speed. I find it also very likely that he’ll bring some defensive value.

2. There is worry about Doncic’s jump shot as he’s shooting in the very low 30s from 3. Basically every player that has any semblance of all-around game like Doncic and similar 3-point attempts per 40 minutes and free throw percentage has figured out how to shoot jumpers from distance in the NBA. The only real concern here is if these percentages speak to some potential creation difficulty against better athletes and Doncic might in time need to be moved off the ball. So long as he has a smart coach, that shouldn’t be a real worry. As stated above, Doncic is a rare player who could be more valuable off the ball than all but the very best initiators are on it, and that scenario will allow Doncic to spend more energy on defense. Doncic’s passing ability, strength potential and competitiveness are three factors that should not be overlooked.

3. Jaren Jackson Jr. is either the best center prospect since Karl Anthony-Towns (if mostly one dimensional) or the best center prospect since Joel Embiid (if the offensive game comes around). On defense, his ability is at times reminiscent of Chris Bosh, Anthony Davis, and Nerlens Noel. The worst case scenario on that end is that he never learns how to anchor against the games bigger centers, making him something like center iteration of Lonzo (able to be beaten at the point of attack but with good recovery and excellent team defense).

On offense, there might be some fool’s gold. Though it seems a possibility, I’m far from confident Jackson is a future 40 or 45 percent 3-point shooter in the NBA. But Jackson has a couple of other factors that make him unlikely to be a total zero on offense, including his dribbling ability from the perimeter, his finishing ability at the rim (67 percent per hoop-math.com, 78 percent on put backs, and it would not be surprising if it improved not only as Jackson matured physically but played in a more spaced out and sophisticated game) and a burgeoning passing ability that comes with both promise and more than a few decision-making lapses. At the start of the season, I wrote that Jackson seemed like a player who had read the instruction manual but didn’t know exactly when to utilize his knowledge. This problem is not necessarily a bad one for a player who will likely be the youngest in the draft.

4. If you notice the centers who have failed to meet expectation in recent years have been total zeros on offense — Hasheem Thabeet, Nerlens Noel (who’s actually a very good passer but whose unwillingness to set clean screens and stone hands are perhaps near fatal flaws), and Jahlil Okafor.

5. Marvin Bagley is a safer bet than Jaren Jackson Jr. Why? His offense is much more likely to translate. It’s as close to an absolute certainty as there is, and if you watched Dallas lineups with Brandan Wright, Los Angeles Clippers lineups with Blake Griffin (the early years), or Phoenix Suns lineups with Amar’e Stoudemire, it should be obvious it is entirely possible to build incredibly efficient offenses around big men with these kinds of skills. The defense remains a question, and it’s more likely than not it will always be so, but where Bagley has some added upside is that there’s still a real possibility he might learn to shoot from distance.

I tend not to love non-defensive bigs, but if anyone watched the last three games of the Finals last year, it was evident that even at the highest level, defense was thrown out the window. Those were games of who could outscore who while doing just enough on critical occasions on defense. In that kind of firefight, Bagley could be invaluable.

6. Deandre Ayton is another super safe bet. I’d bet against him becoming a weapon on defense, but on offense we are probably looking at a player who will fall somewhere between Andre Drummond and DeMarcus Cousins on the center spectrum. Offensive centers that defensive per-minute metrics like more than they should is due to rebounding. There is real opportunity cost with running possessions through a player like this if they aren’t among the most efficient players in the league, but I’d be surprised if Ayton is not seen by his peers and the coaches of the league as an all star.

Myles Turner is a much different sort of player, but if we’re talking about the amount of value a player brings and not the way he brings it, Myles is another interesting player to look at as a point of reference.

7. Mo Bamba is seen as a safe prospect. He’s not. There’s a real possibility he’s closer to Hasheem Thabeet (Bamba is better in the full court but more gangly in half court play) than Hassan Whiteside. I’m also not sure the upside is anywhere near as high as people believe. I’m relatively willing to bet it’s not Rudy Gobert, who also is kind of lumbering, but has perhaps the best positioning and anticipation for what comes next of any player at his position. It’s definitely up there. And while I didn’t see Gobert in Europe, I thought he was always better in the NBA when given minutes than his early reputation suggested.

8. Trae Young’s defense will be terrible in the NBA. Count on negative two. Don’t be surprised if he’s negative three or negative four. The only out for Trae on defense is that he’s so good on offense to consistently allow his defense more favorable starting positions. That is, the only out for Trae on defense is that he’s as good as Steve Nash, probably the best interior finisher who couldn’t jump that we’ve ever seen.

Is Trae Young ahead of Steve Nash at the same age and stage? Yes. By far. Does that guarantee that he’ll continue to stay ahead as his career progresses? Far from it. He could continue to progress and stall out at the level of a player like Mark Price, a no doubt about it all star, but not a league defining difference maker. He could be shut down by NBA size and athleticism, as he’s been shut down by added attention as the season progressed, and be Luke Ridnour.

It would be wrong to merely dismiss the struggles Trae is having as the season goes on. This kind of overlooking was done with D’Angelo Russell who struggled mightily against NBA quality defense in his freshman season at Ohio State (JP Tokoto and UNC, Terry Rozier and Louisville, TJ McConnell and Arizona), which foreshadowed issues Russell has continued to display in terms of both decision-making and his driving game. I don’t care if stopping short is a good move. This is basketball. You aren’t supposed to be stealing the moves of Frank Costanza.

The point is that Russell hasn’t been nearly as good as might have been anticipated. We could see the signs in college if we didn’t choose to ignore them. Trae might exceed my expectations (I hope so, it would be incredibly fun), but right now I’d bet against Trae being the next Nash, even if he had perhaps the best freshman half season in college basketball history.

Expect much of the NBA, outside of perhaps Sacramento, to have some of the same concerns, which will likely drop Trae to the 6-11 range, where a team might get one of biggest steals in draft history. While I’d bet against Trae becoming Steve Nash good, that skinny end upside does exist. It is a possibility.

9. Yes, a person can make the same D’Angelo Russell joke any number of times and still find it amusing.

10. Shamorie Ponds is underrated. In the worst case scenario, he’s likely a player a lot like Reggie Jackson. In the best case scenario, he’s probably a lot like Damian Lillard, but with better defense. That’s a first half of the first round type of player and perhaps higher. Some team picking late will likely be buying on a discount. Don’t be surprised if it’s the Lakers or the Spurs.

11. I’m still firmly in the camp that Mikal Bridges is the best wing prospect in the draft not named Luka Doncic. That being said, I’d be very surprised if Miles Bridges isn’t picked ahead of him, and more specifically, I’d be surprised if Miles Bridges doesn’t end up being picked in the top six. Explosion, burst, strength, size and shooting ability is a combination the NBA loves. I like Miles better than former number two overall pick Jabari Parker. Some have also compared him to Aaron Gordon, though Miles is much more comfortable from distance and has better ball skills. I think of him as a bigger Jason Richardson. I don’t think he has the upside of Mikal Bridges if Bridges’ defense and shooting translate, but Miles does seem to be a safer bet to be successful.

12. As he hasn’t played, De’Anthony Melton is to some extent a forgotten player. However, the models still love him. Though I love him as a player (he’s smart), I’d caution against him to some degree if he hasn’t been able to add a jump shot in his time away from college basketball. While Melton is an excellent defender and ball mover, players 6-foot-4 and less are rarely true impact defenders without absolutely top notch athleticism. Marcus Smart is a definitive example, but Marcus Smart is also one of the strongest players for his frame that we’ve ever seen. In that sense, he’s like the 6-foot-3 guard version of Anthony Mason. I’m not saying Melton isn’t strong, but he’s unlikely to be quite as strong as Smart and thus not as versatile. At 6-foot-4, he’s also unlikely to be quite as useful as a player like Klay Thompson in walling off and bothering the NBA’s quickest jitterbugs, though there are matchups Melton will surely succeed in. And one unspoken factor is that he’s excellent for a young player at clearing screens.

Just remember, we’ve seen 6-foot-4 college standout defenders become NBA also-rans frequently. Aaron Afflalo is one. OJ Mayo, an excellent defender for a freshman, was another. They are far from the only ones.

13. Wendell Carter Jr., while not quite as good on offense, is perhaps having a more impactful freshman season than Kevin Love due to Carter’s defensive ability. Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, David West — imagine them with a 3-point shot and we might be approaching how we should think of Wendell Carter Jr.’s upside. Which is to say, Wendell Carter Jr. is likely to outplay his draft position, whatever it ends up being, and to put up per minute metric numbers that perhaps exceed his actual on court value.

The swing skill for Carter, who has basically everything, will be if he can improve his lateral movement. If he can get his feet to where a player like Al Horford is I find it more likely than not we’ll be speaking of a top three player from this draft in 9-10 years time. But that’s also a big ask, and I’m far from the go-to guy on predicting such movement improvements, or even knowing what’s possible. I do know Kyle Korver improved his lateral movement skills considerably more than Carter would need to for this outcome to be a possibility.

14. Jontay Porter’s season is not quite as impressive as Wendell Carter Jr’s. However, there are a couple of key NBA skills in which he seems a better bet to succeed. Passing (3.6 assists per 40 minutes is a similar enough number to Carter’s but Jontay’s passing is more impressive in game action and 3-point shooting (5.3 attempts per 40 minutes, 36 percent shooter from 3, 76 percent from the foul line, and Jontay’s stroke looks much sweeter than Jaren Jackson’s). That is, there are a couple of factors that could lead to Jontay becoming the surprise best offensive center from this class. The reason why versatility of skills is so important is because it prevents an opponent from merely downsizing against a player who can do nothing but shoot from 3.

Think about what happens to Channing Frye in the playoffs when he played the Warriors and the Warriors without regret merely slid Durant or Green over to center to counter. What answer did Frye have? None.

That’s still a danger for Jontay, unless he continues to improve. If he doesn’t, he’ll just end up as center iteration of Jared Dudley or Kyle Anderson. That’s a very useful player, but not a game changer. But it would be wrong to point out that Jontay doesn’t at least have a couple of avenues towards becoming a game changer. The first is that he just becomes so good on offense that he can punish any match up. The second is that he gets faster, quicker laterally and more explosive as he loses weight and engages his core muscles. Perhaps he even does both.

This is what we speak about when we speak about unpredictable growth. It’s not completely unpredictable in that we can, if we try, pick out the players who are most likely to have such avenues, and even pick out the avenues they might travel. Jontay is one of those players.

15. The sheer number of centers in this draft should tell us something about their likely value going forward. I’ve even left out Mitchell Robinson, who by some sources is estimated to be the best defensive player of all of them. I’ve left out Robert Williams, who puts up real deal defensive numbers while often playing out of position at power forward due to the presence of Tyler Davis. The fact is center is probably the deepest position in the NBA right now. They can’t all be a top 5 or a top 10 player at their position. And without injury, none of these players are particularly likely to overtake Joel Embiid or Anthony Davis (thank god he’s now playing center). Perhaps it’s possible for a player like Jaren Jackson, but also not entirely likely.

So we have a group of 8-10 players who are being considered near the top of this draft for a deep position (from traditional centers like Embiid, Kristaps, Gobert, Adams, Cousins, Capela, Drummond et al to traditional power forwards like Anthony Davis and Serge Ibaka sometimes manning the position, not to speak of Durant, Lebron, Giannis and the like who all sometimes play there). Does it strike you funny that the upside for all is spoken about as “best player in the league” or “best player at his position”? It does me.

If there are 8-10 players in the draft and one can’t sort through them well enough to figure out who the best one is, the likelihood is that none of them are all that great to begin with. True greatness at the center position is in most cases readily apparent in almost every case. The only exceptions we have to this rule in recent times are three overlooked European players: 1) Gobert, who I’m convinced was underrated 2) Jokic, who I know for a fact was underrated and 3) Marc Gasol, a fat guy with real skill who got into shape and improved athletically. Kristaps may soon join this list.

The lone American exception is 6-foot-7 dynamo Ben Wallace, who was underrated because he lacked the typical dimensions of a NBA center. Basically every other great player at this position in history is a guy like Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Walton, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Shaquille O’Neal, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Tyson Chandler, Joel Embiid or even Karl Anthony-Towns. This kind of greatness was apparent from the get go, not just by the eyes, but by the all around numbers. Which is to say, if there is any doubt as to who the best player at this position might be, that probably is a sign that there is something lacking in the players at hand.

16.Gary Clark is like if Marvin Williams had the instincts of Draymond Green. There is one major flag for Clark in that his release is slow and he in general lacks confidence in his jumper. He’s improved a lot but still has a long way to go. Look no further than a player like Kyle Anderson to see the difference between good percentages and good volume in projecting a shot’s usefulness going forward. And yet, Gary Clark does everything else besides initiate the offense. He passes, makes decisions, playa hard, has multi-position versatility on defense and plays with strength, leverage and tenacity. In short, if given opportunity, Gary Clark will add wins to whatever team wants him. If his jumper develops, maybe a lot more wins than anyone is expecting. He’s the kind of player I will rate higher than everyone else, knowing that as a team I could trade down and pick him up later in the draft than he should be taken.

17. Centers. We’re still not done with centers. Daniel Gafford, Raymond Spalding, Kyle Alexander, Killian Tillie, Ethan Happ, Mike Watkins, Kenny Wooten, Anas Mahmoud, Reggie Lynch, William Lee, Elijah Thomas, Udoka Azuibuike, Chimezie Metu, Isaiah Wilkins and Angel Delgado. Too many centers.

18. Wings. There are also too many wings. There are the guys that have truly set themselves apart in Luka, Mikal and Miles. There’s also a group of freshmen that may belong in a conversation with the two Bridges in Zhaire Smith, DeAndre Hunter and Troy Brown. Perhaps Jarret Culver too. There’s combo forwards like Kevin Knox, Isaiah Roby, Rashard Kelly, Grant Williams, Juwan Morgan, Chuma Okeke and Dean Wade. There’s the junior who’s separated himself from the pack in Jacob Evans. There’s the college initiators who will be NBA wings and combos led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Shake Milton, then followed by Bruce Brown, Kenrich Williams, Landry Shamet, Allonzo Trier, Jerome Robinson, Justin Simon, Tony Carr, Quindarry Weatherspoon, Chandler Hutchison, Grayson Allen, Braian Angola-Rodas, Milik Yarborough and Nick Weiler-Babb. Then beyond these players there’s Admiral Schofield, Caleb and Cody Martin, Lonnie Walker, Vince Edwards, Josh Reaves, Rawle Alkins, Melvin Frazier, Charles Matthews, Josh Okogie, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Chris Clarke, Terance Mann, Terrance Davis, Devon Hall, Tim Bond, Jacobi Boykins, Donte Grantham, Zach Brown, Markis McDuffie, Donte DiVincenzo, Matisse Thybulle, Theo Pinson, Jeff Roberson, DeSean Murray, Justin Gray, Ish Sanogo, Dylan Windler, Cam Johnson, Gary Trent, Jordan Barnett, Kevin Huerter, Jarron Cumberland, and Nick King.

I may even be leaving some out. Beyond the top twenty of the draft I don’t think they are worth sorting out until we know who has declared.

19. Point guards. There are others besides the three listed above. Tookie Brown is my favorite from the rest of the group, but there ‘s also Jalen Brunson, Aaron Holiday, Trevon Duval, Carsen Edwards, Collin Sexton, Devonte’ Graham, Cassius Winston, Tremont Waters, Jaylen Adams.

20. Jevon Carter is one of my favorite players and a special case. A potential premiere point of attack defender, at least as a bulldog backup, but has mismatched skills for his size. He shouldn’t be on the draft boards of most teams, but for those with big initiators (Golden State, Houston, Philadelphia, wherever Lebron ends up) he should be much more highly regarded as a potential tertiary offensive player who can shoot, dribble and pass while providing excellent defense at the point of attack. Los Angeles (Lonzo Ball) and Milwaukee (Giannis, Brogdon) are not quite ideal fits but are teams that should perhaps consider Carter as well. Almost everyone else, save perhaps Oklahoma City, should look toward more traditional player types to fill these needs. But for those teams where Carter fits, he could provide first round value in the same way that Derek Fisher once did for the Lakers. His game is basically that of a slightly smaller, slightly quicker Fish.

21. Jevon Carter speaks to the difficulty of creating non team specific draft boards. He’s a player I’m only going to rank at all if I’m five to six teams in the league. But for those teams to where he provides the best fit, he might engender a top 15-25 grade. How do you account for that on a non team specific draft board?