Welcome to the start of our projection review series. We start off with catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Take a few moments to see the original piece we did. Our group projection was for the following line:

PA – 487

AVG – .265

OBP – .323

SLG – .440

HR – 18

RBI – 66

PB – 12

Here’s how d’Arnaud actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.

PA – 268

Best – Koehler (400)

Worst – Parker (550)

AVG – .268

Best – Joura (.268)

Worst – Kolton (.243)

OBP – .340

Best – Vasile (.335)

Worst – Kolton (.281)

SLG – .485

Best – Rogan (.475)

Worst – Kolton (.344)

HR – 12

Best – Slape (15)

Worst – Joura, Singer (22)

RBIs – 41

Best – Kolton (43)

Worst – Vasile (79)

PB – 1

Best – Hangley (7)

Worst – Kolton (19)

Obviously, none of us predicted a shortened season for d’Arnaud. It’s not a surprise that no one, with the possible exception of Kolton, saw him performing so poorly overall as to lose playing time to someone else. But given his injury history in the minors, it’s somewhat of an upset that no one pegged him for fewer than 400 PA.

With that out of the way, it’s probably best to focus on the rate stats rather than the counting ones. And here we did pretty well on an individual basis. We nailed his AVG, came within a few points on OBP and the worst was being 10 points off on his SLG. With our group forecast, we came within three points on AVG but were off 17 and 45 points on OBP and SLG, respectively.

Comparing our projections to the big boys, ours came out the best. We were slightly more optimistic across the board, so while we were 45 points off on SLG, ZiPS was 49 points off and Steamer missed by 57. And as far as playing time estimates, we were in the middle with 487 PA, while ZiPS forecasted 399 and Steamer 503.

Also, we should note the passed balls. This time last year, some were concerned that d’Arnaud would not be able to play the position defensively. While he won praise for pitch framing, he was raked over the coals for allowing so many PB and SB. While his throwing still leaves a lot to be desired, he did a fantastic job of eliminating PB in 2015.

Looking forward to the 2016 projections, it will be curious to see our individual forecasts. We all saw great production when d’Arnaud was in the lineup in 2015, at least during the regular season, but we also saw him miss more than half the year. My guess is someone will forecast fewer than 400 PA and possibly more than one will be bearish when it comes to playing time.

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