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Labour could lose control of the Welsh Assembly on May 5 unless it does more to counter UKIP.

That’s the stark warning in an internal Labour Party analysis, leading sources to warn that “the real danger UKIP pose to Labour lies ahead”.

Jeremy Corbyn is being urged by allies not to take next May’s elections for granted amid the warnings that Labour’s Welsh stronghold is under threat.

Read more: How many of Jeremy Corbyn's policies do you agree with?

The Labour leader is facing the first big electoral test of his leadership when Scotland, Wales, London and town halls go to the polls in the Spring.

Mr Corbyn’s position has been strengthened by the Oldham by-election victory where Labour increased its vote share and claimed a shock 10,000 majority over UKIP.

But senior sources fear next year’s looming polls will prove a much tougher challenge.

The party is expecting the SNP to cement its lead north of the border so senior figures are pinning their hopes on winning the London Mayoral race and retaining control of the Welsh Assembly.

Read more: We asked people in Welsh Labour what they thought of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership

But The Mirror has seen internal Labour analysis outlining how they could lose control of the Welsh Assembly.

“Those calling time on UKIP after the Oldham West by-election are premature and misguided,” said a source.

“Oldham was a fantastic win for Labour but is no excuse for complacency.

“We cannot revert to a misguided belief that UKIP hurt the Tories more than us.

“It’s simply not true. The real danger UKIP pose to Labour lies ahead.”

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Labour currently holds 30 of the 60 Welsh Assembly seats but the analysis shows that if UKIP’s vote holds up in marginal seats it could “gift seats to the Tories.”

In the swing seat of Cardiff Central, Labour scored 37.9% in 2011 with the Lib Dems polling 37.7%.

(Image: D Legakis/Athena Picture Agency)

But in the 2015 general election, UKIP got 6.5% vote. If it took a similar share in May, Labour could lose the constituency to the Lib Dems.

The same effect in Cardiff North, where UKIP won 7.7% seven months ago, could hand the seat to the Tories, who won it in this year’s general election.

UKIP support in Delyn and Llanelli reached over 16% in May – and if repeated in five months could hand the seats to Tories and Plaid Cymru respectively.

A fifth seat – the Vale of Glamorgan, where UKIP got 10.7% earlier this year - would be “too close to call” and could easily go Conservative, insiders say.

Two other constituencies – Gower and Vale of Clwyd - switched from Labour to Tory in the UK general election, throwing them into major doubt for the 2016 Assembly poll.

Labour would have the compensation of picking up a one or two Assembly seats through the proportional representation voting system.

But the party would still sink to about 26 – potentially forcing it into a coalition.

One Labour MP admitted: “It’s going to be tough. A lot of ‘Old Labour’ people in the Valleys are delighted with Jeremy’s win but other, more moderate types could turn to UKIP or even the Tories.”

Former Deputy PM John Prescott called for Mr Corbyn to be given the space to get on with his job.

“Let’s get on with the job and give him a chance for goodness sake,” Lord Prescott told Murnaghan on Sky News.

But he said the Labour leader needed to strike a balance between his job at the top of the party and his long-standing involvements in Stop the War Coalition. Mr Corbyn angered some colleagues by attending a Stop the War fundraiser on Friday night.

Lord Prescott said: “As the leader, he has earned the right democratically to lead the party.

“But there are some people in the party, who I call the Bitterites, who want to continue the war that they lost. The party has spoken, we have the leader and he has to recognise being a leader, perhaps, more than representing a protest movement.

“At the end of the day Jeremy will have to decide there is a balance between what is the leadership of the Labour party and representing that, a very difficult job, and the one of having to carry out commitments (to) say, Stop the War.”

Labour also denied that Ken Livingstone, a key ally of Mr Corbyn, was being lined up for a peerage. A spokesman said the story was “complete nonsense.”