We are now one week closer to Spring Training. That means Bold Predictions Part Two, one more hitter and one more pitcher. This week we feature a potential comeback pitcher, Matt Cain, and breakout hitter, Jason Heyward.

Matt Cain Rebounds and is a Top 25 Starter

Matt Cain’s 2014 was a train wreck. Frankly, so was his 2013 season. He couldn’t keep his ERA under 4.00, suffered injuries, and gave up an unprecedented number of home runs. Back to back poor seasons like 2013 and 2014 meant Cain fell out of the top 150 rankings for 2015. No one seems to remember the Matt Cain who had a four-year stretch of 32+ starts where his worst ERA was 3.14. Where did that Matt Cain go? The short answer, nowhere. The long answer follows.

Cain was never a guy who struck a lot of people out, as evidenced by his career high K/9 of 8.45 (in 2006). He was never a control specialist either. From 2009-2012, his four most dominant years, his BB/9 lived in the 2.50 range–nothing special, but good enough. So how was he so successful? First, he didn’t allow hard hit balls during those four years; his Line Drive percentage (LD%) of 16-19 during these years were elite. Second, and most importantly, he kept the ball in the park. His HR/FB% never climbed above 6.7% during that time, and was even as low as 2.9% in 2011. Cain’s slider was key to these results. Although it was never a big swing and miss pitch, Cain could locate his slider impeccably and thus generate a ton of weak contact. He was known as a fly ball pitcher, but one who was able to keep the ball inside spacious AT&T Park and let hitters get themselves out.

Cain’s ERA has certainly been different lately than it was during those four years. But a closer look shows that his ERA is one of the only surface stats that has changed. The reason for this is his HR/FB%. It rose to 10.8% in 2013, and soared to 13.7% in 2014. The 10.8% in 2013 is understandable because Cain allowed the highest hard hit percentage of his career. However, in 2014, it was the lowest it’s been since 2010. Cain also adjusted his approach, deciding not to be a fly ball pitcher. He only allowed a FB% of 35.7%, after seeing his FB% be as high as 46.6% from 2009-2012. A possible explanation for the increased home runs in 2013 and 2014 is Cain’s slider. Cain pitched with bone chips in his elbow for much of 2013 and 2014, before he was shut down to have the surgery that he perhaps should have gotten after the 2012 season. This could help to explain why his slider became less effective, in addition to the work he had done on his ankle.

Cain’s K/9 and BB/9 from 2013 and 2014 were actually typical of his career. He also made significant adjustments in how he attacked hitters to increase his ground ball rate in 2014, and I believe this change could pay off in 2015. Additionally, perhaps most importantly, Cain got the surgery that he was long due for. With a long offseason to recover and build his arm strength back up, it is possible that we see 2012 Cain again, and that’s a bargain in the later rounds of a draft.

Jason Heyward Goes 20/20 and is a Top 15 Outfielder

Heyward burst on to the scene in 2010 with an impressive rookie season. In 142 games, Heyward batted .277, while hitting 18 home runs, and stealing 11 bases. However, after consecutive seasons of under 15 home runs and mediocre batting averages, Heyward’s days of being known as the next big thing have faded. Perhaps believing Heyward would never pan out, the Braves shipped him to St. Louis for pitcher Shelby Miller. I believe Atlanta couldn’t have been more wrong.

What happened to Heyward that caused him to go from being one of the most hyped prospects in the past five years to someone on his way to being known as a lost cause? Let’s go back to 2012, the third straight year where Heyward’s K% rose and BB% fell. This happened because from 2010-2012 Heyward became increasingly aggressive. His Swing% rose from 39.4% in 2010, to 44.7% in 2011, to 46.9% in 2012. At the same time, he was more prone to swing and miss. His Contact% went from 79.1% in 2010, to 77.1% in 2011, and then fell to 75.4% in 2012. Swinging more while making contact less is not the desired trajectory for a young superstar.

However, since 2012 there has been a change in Heyward’s plate discipline: he has become more selective. His swing% dropped to 44.6% in 2013 and to 43.8% in 2014. His O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) was 32.7% in 2012. In 2013 it dropped to 28.3%, and continued to dropped to 28.1% in 2014. But what about the pitches he did swing at? As I mentioned earlier, his Contact% was just 75.4% in 2012. In 2013, it jumped to 80.0%, and continued to rise in 2014 to 82.2%. As a result of his changed plate discipline, his K% has decreased every year since 2012, and his BB% has drastically improved since then as well.

Put all this together and we have a largely improved Jason Heyward, still just 25 years old, who will be taking the majority of his at bats in Busch Stadium this year. This is significant because Heyward moved from the 21st ranked ballpark for hitters, Turner Field, to the 4th ranked, Busch Stadium. The change in ball park alone will help Heyward’s fantasy output even if his skill level remained the same. But I don’t think his skill level will merely remain the same, I think this is the year where the much improved plate discipline finally pays off. If you’re still skeptical, just remember that this is the same hitter who former manager Bobby Cox described by saying, “there’s a little sound off the bat. [Heyward’s] line drives are kind of like ol’ Hank Aaron’s sound.”

Expecting the Unexpected: Jose Abreu, Michael Wacha

Bobby Jacowleff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Bobby, check out his archive.

