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TODAY’S PODCAST

Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks (-3.5, ML: -155) – O/U: 201.5

————-Pace> DET: 27th – ATL: 8th

OFF Efficiency> DET: 21st – ATL: 23rd

DEF Efficiency> DET: 10th – ATL: 6th

DET :

-Reggie Bullock (out)

The one guy above all that I’m interested in is Tobias Harris. Since making the move to the bench, he’s been taking any shot that he wants and that’s resulted in three straight 30+ FDP performances. $6000 on both sites is a little more than I want to pay for a bench player, but we have seen stretch fours take the Hawks to school all season long.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is very interesting here as well. We have seen shooting guards tee off on the Hawks lately, so let’s play a game of follow the leader.

ATL :

-Tiago Splitter, Ryan Kelly (out)

While Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond are wasting energy on each other in the paint, this could be a perfect opportunity for Paul Millsap to veer away and do his thing. Unfortunately, there are cheaper power forwards that can produce just as well as he can.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota Timberwolves (PK) – O/U: 209

————-Pace> MIL: 19th – MIN: 22nd

OFF Efficiency> MIL: 10th – MIN: 11th

DEF Efficiency> MIL: 8th – MIN: 26th

MIL :

-Matthew Dellavedova (out)

-Rashad Vaughn (questionable)

Absolutely love this outlook for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker tonight. The T-Wolves’ struggles on defense have been well documented and these two can certainly expose all of their faults. Wiggins and LaVine are among some of the worst defenders in this league; I’m not sure who will draw The Greek assignment, but I don’t envy them one bit. Parker will be matched up against Dieng or KAT, and neither guy has the mobility to keep up with him around the perimeter.

Greg Monroe has finally been let out of Jason Kidd’s doghouse. He’s put up 33 FDP in two of his last three games but, as is always the case, that J-Kidd doghouse is a very mysterious place.

Matthew Dellavedova is going to miss tonight’s game and that’ll open up more minutes for Malcolm Brogdon. Typically, he’s been excelling with the second unit so it’ll be interesting to see what he does with this golden opportunity. Brogdon has shown 32 FDP upside recently and he could be a nice pivot off of McConnell from Philly.

MIN :

Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng both have fantastic matchups in this one. We have been able to pick on the Bucks frontcourt for a while now, so why not do it one more time before 2016 is over? KAT will likely be the more coveted player in this scenario, but Dieng has a decent floor when he’s on his game. Jabari will have a difficult time dealing with Dieng down low.

I don’t mind Zach LaVine or Andrew Wiggins in this spot, but I’d obviously rather have the one that The Greek isn’t defending. If you can figure that out…congrats! Ricky Rubio works in this spot too, since pain in the ass Dellavedova is out tonight.

New York Knicks @ New Orleans Pelicans (-2, ML: -135) – O/U: 212

————-Pace> NYK: 12th – NO: 11th

OFF Efficiency> NYK: 16th – NO: 25th

DEF Efficiency> NYK: 24th – NO: 14th

NYK :

-Courtney Lee (questionable- missed last game)

My favorite targets from the Knicks will be Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose. I guess Kristaps Porzingis could work too, but I worry about him getting into foul trouble against AD. Melo and Rose have the primo matchups in this game and I’ll let it ride with them.

A lot of people may go to Joakim Noah after some solid performances in three of his last four games. I’m not hating on the guy, but he’s just someone that I never go to. I may end up regretting this.

If Courtney Lee doesn’t play, then Justin Holiday could be a solid value play.

NO :

I really like the combination of Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday tonight. Bigs have been incredibly profitable all season against the Knicks and I feel like AD’s $10,700 DK/$11,100 FD price tag isn’t that outrageous for the type of ceiling that he can hit. Holiday is more risky, due to the fact that there is a crowded backcourt on the Pelicans roster. However, point guards have been doing some serious damage against the Knicks lately and Holiday is itching for a breakout performance…especially since his brother is on the other sideline tonight.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets (-10.5, ML: -625) – O/U: 217.5

————-Pace> LAC: 17th – HOU: 5th

OFF Efficiency> LAC: 6th – HOU: 3rd

DEF Efficiency> LAC: 5th – HOU: 18th

LAC :

-Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Brice Johnson (out)

-JJ Redick (questionable)

CP3 is out tonight and that’ll open up tons of value for the Clippers. Most people will run to Austin Rivers and Raymond Felton, but don’t forget about Jamal Crawford and JJ Redick…and that massive DeAndre Jordan fella. It’s typically Crawford that sees the higher usage rate, more shots, etc. so he’s the one that I would place the most emphasis on.

HOU :

-Clint Capela (out)

Well, with CP3 in street clothes, James Harden doesn’t have such a bad outlook tonight. Historically, the Clippers have made Harden work for every single statistic he gets. This Clippers team is much more porous with CP3 out of the lineup so you can definitely feel comfortable paying up for The Beard.

Eric Gordon, Patrick Beverley, Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza all get a boost here as well. Gordon and Beverley are the preferred plays for me, mainly because of their consistency. Anderson and Ariza both have solid upside every now and again, but it’s just too volatile for me to predict.

Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs (-12, ML: -1100) – O/U: 206

————-Pace> POR: 9th – SA: 26th

OFF Efficiency> POR: 7th – SA: 5th

DEF Efficiency> POR: 30th – SA: 3rd

POR :

-Damian Lillard (doubtful)

The Blazers have had to tread water these last two games with Lillard in street clothes, but things will get a lot tougher tonight against one of the NBA’s elite. CJ McCollum, Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe see the biggest boost when Lillard is off the court, so those would be the guys that I look to. However, I’m not sure that I want to test that theory against the NBA’s third-best defense.

We have seen centers do some decent damage against the Spurs before, so maybe Mason Plumlee can sneak up on everyone as a deeeep sleeper.

SA :

-Kawhi Leonard (out)

With Kawhi out for the second straight game, you can expect LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol to get most of the looks. Portland’s league-worst defensive efficiency makes this an extremely juicy play that most people probably won’t overlook. I don’t mind, though. You can’t overlook a great matchup.

The Spurs will be looking for more scoring than just those two. I’m curious to see if Tony Parker, Patty Mills or Danny Green get some extra looks in this scenario. I’m not banking on it, but it’s something to monitor.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Denver Nuggets (-11, ML: -650) – O/U: 211.5

————-Pace> PHI: 13th – DEN: 7th

OFF Efficiency> PHI: 30th – DEN: 14th

DEF Efficiency> PHI: 20th – DEN: 27th

PHI :

-Gerald Henderson, Sergio Rodriguez, Richaun Holmes (out)

The big value play of the day will likely be TJ McConnell, and for good reason. He’s made the most of similar opportunities in the past and a matchup with the Nuggets (who are incredibly generous to opposing PGs), all the minutes he can handle and a feature role in the offense make this a match made in heaven. Nik Stauskas will also see a ton of minutes tonight with all of the injuries to the Sixers backcourt and handle some makeshift backup point guard duties as well. Robert Covington and Hollis Thompson could see extra minutes at the two.

Trying to get a handle of the Sixers big men lately has been a tricky endeavor. Joel Embiid is back from a night of rest, so he’ll handle the lion’s share of minutes at the five. They are trying to work Nerlens Noel into the rotation, while ruining Jahlil Okafor’s game by playing with Embiid. Then you also have Ersan Ilyasova and Dario Saric playing well, scratching and clawing for minutes. Not exactly an ideal situation.

DEN :

The Nuggets also have a ton of guys running through their rotation…this should be fun.

The most popular guy will be Nikola Jokic, whose price is increasing on a daily basis…but that’s what happens when you 40+ FDP in back-to-back games. The Sixers have been extremely vulnerable in the paint this season, but they do have five guys to waste all the fouls they want on him tonight. Could be something interesting to keep in mind…

After Jokic, it’s basically a bunch of calculated dart throws against this porous Sixers defense. Danilo Gallinari, Will Barton, Gary Harris, Emmanuel Mudiay and Wilson Chandler are all capable of putting up some big numbers tonight; the problem is that they could all cap off each other’s massive ceilings.

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors (-18, ML: -8000) – O/U: 212

————-Pace> DAL: 30th – GS: 3rd

OFF Efficiency> DAL: 26th – GS: 2nd

DEF Efficiency> DAL: 23rd – GS: 2nd

DAL :

-Andrew Bogut, JJ Barea (out)

We already have word on two Mavs sitting out, but there could certainly be more. The last few times the Mavs have come to Oakland, they basically waved the white flag before heading into the arena, meaning they have sat some or most of their key players. They are on the back-end of a B2B so the likelihood is certainly plausible for tonight’s game.

I do think that guys like Harrison Barnes, Seth Curry and Dwight Powell are assured to play a solid number of minutes. Other than that, everything is pretty much up in the air.

GS :

In this order: Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry– those are my favorite Warriors in order. KD and Thompson always seem to be the ones that can still have upside, whether they are blowing the other team out or not.

This could be an opportune time for the Warriors to get some extra minutes to their bench players. However, there is so much value on this slate that I don’t think you need to take a massive chance and guess which one it’ll be. Andre Iguodala is always a guy that I could say yay or nay to, so maybe he could work if you’re playing the late slate.

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