Then, he was viewed by consensus acclaim as one of the best pure hitters in the game, a hitter with a compact, direct swing that allowed him to limit his swings and misses and instead to hit hard line drives to all fields. He resided in the middle of the order on a team that won one World Series in 2011 and came within two wins of another title in 2013.

Roughly a thousand miles and a world away from Fenway Park, Allen Craig sat on the bench for the PawSox’ 11:05 a.m. contest in Indianapolis on Wednesday. The destination – Indianapolis, morning baseball, Triple A, outrighted off the 40-man roster – is almost mind-boggling to anyone who witnessed what Craig had become less than two years ago.


That version of Craig now seems like it belongs to another long-ago era. Craig’s 2014 and 2015 seasons have been a performance nightmare, with his line of a .207 average, .275 OBP, and .302 slugging mark since the start of 2014 not only resulting in the end of his time with the Cardinals but also resulting in his five-year, $31 million contract – once viewed as a bargain – untouchable to every team in baseball, resulting in Craig getting outrighted to Pawtucket.

Mapping why this has happened — starting with the Lisfranc foot injury that wrecked his 2013-14 offseason and set in motion the dominoes of alterations to his swing mechanics and confidence — is one thing, a trail that is impossible to trace precisely. But there is a question that looms among evaluators that does have an answer.

“Has there ever been a guy who went from being one of the best hitters in baseball to one of the worst that quickly?” one scout mused when he saw Craig with the PawSox.


The short answer is that, no, there’s no precedent for a player who was so consistently excellent over a three-year span to endure such a precipitous decline. But it’s telling that there are few drop-offs that have come anywhere close to the one endured by Craig.

From 2011-13, Craig was a force. He hit over .300 in each of the three years, and posted an OPS+ of 125 or better (meaning an OPS 25 percent better than the league average, adjusted for ballpark effects) in each of those three years while forging a .312 average, .364 OBP, and .500 slugging mark. There are just 120 hitters in major league history who had three straight years with an OPS+ of 125 or better between the ages of 26 and 28 while stepping to the plate at least 200 times in each season.

Of the 119 who preceded Craig, one did not play in his age 29 or 30 seasons. Hal Trosky, an elite player in his 20s, ended up retreating to his farm and sitting out those two years due to the effects of crippling migraines. Of the other 118 players, the vast majority experienced some form of decline, with 81 (69 percent) posting a lower OPS in their age 29-30 seasons than they did in their age 26-28 seasons.

But Craig’s falloff from a 136 OPS+ from 2011-13 to less than half of that mark – a 62 OPS+ – in his age 29-30 seasons stands out as the biggest decline ever. His drop of 74 points in OPS+ is the largest ever. Only two other players – Todd Hundley with a 65-point dropoff, and Don Mattingly with a 42-point dropoff – ever had a decline of more than 40 points in OPS+ between their age 26-28 seasons and their age 29-30 campaigns.


Moreover, Craig is just the third player ever to go from three straight years with an OPS+ of 125 or better from the ages of 26-28 to someone who performed even below the league average in OPS+ in his age 29 and 30 seasons. Again, the only precedents for that sort of fall from grace, from a consistently elite hitter to a below-average one, are Mattingly (94 OPS+) and Hundley (76 OPS+ as a 29- and 30-year-old).

Hundley is the closest thing to a player whose career declined as precipitously as Craig’s, even as he was in the prime of his career. In the switch-hitting catcher’s case, a succession of surgeries and health woes sabotaged his career in his theoretical prime.

Still, he did show flashes beyond his age 30 season that suggested that his skills didn’t disappear suddenly and irreversibly. Most notably, in 91 games in his age 31 season, he hit .284/.375/.579 with a 143 OPS+. Perhaps such a rebound offers a measure of hope to Craig and the Red Sox.

Beyond Hundley, however, Craig’s case is so unusual that it’s hard to find either promise or ominous lessons in any precedent. The 30-year-old is at an odd career crossroads, without a meaningful map of the potential directions going forward.


Allen Craig in context Like Craig, Todd Hundley and Don Mattingly both had sharp declines in their OPS. Ages 26-28 Ages 29-30 Average 0.312 0.207 OBP 0.364 0.275 Slugging 0.5 0.302 OPS+ 136 62 Players with 125 OPS+ 3x, ages 26-28 120 Number who played at ages 29-30 119 Number with OPS+ below 100, ages 29-30 3 (Craig, Hundley, Mattingly) Number with OPS+ below 70, ages 29-30 1 (Craig) Number with OPS+ drop > 33% 2 (Craig, Hundley) Number with OPS+ drop > 50% 1 (Craig) Number with OPS+ drop > 40 points 3 (Craig, Hundley, Mattingly) Number with OPS+ drop > 70 points 1 (Craig) SOURCE : Baseball-Reference.com.

Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him on twitter at @alexspeier.