Ireland goes to the polls an increasingly liberal country – yet religion’s place in state education is staving off the decline of the Catholic church

Mike McKillen was delighted to have his granddaughter’s help in digging the garden. But as a small creature wriggled out of the damp earth, the retired science professor was less pleased to be told by five-year-old Cara: “God made this worm.”

“She has been in school for a few months only, and already she is imbibing the idea that God created everything. This worries me a lot,” said McKillen, 72, who still teaches bio-chemistry part-time at Trinity College Dublin. “I don’t want her to be indoctrinated.”



Cara and thousands of other Irish children have little choice but to be educated by the Catholic church, which runs more than 90% of Ireland’s primary schools. But with an increasingly liberal and secular population, the church’s control over such huge parts of Irish society is weakening.



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Ireland’s last census, in 2011, showed a big rise in the numbers of non-Catholics. Although those identifying themselves as Catholic were still the vast majority of the 4.5m population, more than 6% – 277,000 people – described themselves as atheist, agnostic, lapsed or of “no religion”. The number was an increase of almost 50% since the previous census in 2006; the next census, due in April, is expected to show an even bigger rise.



Migration has also led to significant increases in the numbers identifying as Muslim, Orthodox, Pentecostal, Hindu and Buddhist.



Ireland’s shifting demographics, religious beliefs and social attitudes have major implications for the Catholic church and the state, which have been intertwined since Ireland was partitioned and the south won independence from Britain in 1922. The church’s unyielding views on marriage, divorce, baptism, contraception, abortion and homosexuality are increasingly being challenged or simply ignored.



Yet as the power of the pulpit wanes, particularly with the millennial generation, Catholic influence on the state endures. Despite an astonishing 62% vote in favour of same-sex marriage last May, making Ireland the first country in the world to endorse marriage equality through a referendum, the church still holds sway in spheres such as education and reproductive rights.



Ireland goes to the polls on 26 February in an election dominated by the economy and crime. But candidates are also facing questions about religious education and the prospects of a referendum to repeal the near-universal ban on abortion.



Facebook Twitter Pinterest A mural on the side of a building in central Dublin. Ireland legalised same-sex marriage in May 2015. Photograph: Shawn Pogatchnik/AP

“There is definitely appetite for social change and liberalisation – although perhaps ‘normalisation’ is a better word,” said Daniel Faas, head of the sociology department at Trinity College Dublin. “Ireland is rapidly becoming more liberal and tolerant. The sermons preached against same sex marriage were ignored by many voters last May. In the space of 22 years, since homosexuality was decriminalised in 1993, Ireland has gone from that extreme to embracing same sex marriage. The power and influence of the church has eroded – and it needs to reflect on that.”



A few months ago, the archdiocese of Dublin commissioned research from a global consultancy firm, Towers Watson, to forecast the church’s trajectory over the next 15 years. Its findings made bleak reading for the church, which declined to speak about the report to the Guardian.



Attendances at mass are set to fall by a third between now and 2030, on top of a 20% drop between 2008 and 2014. The church can expect to recruit one new priest under the age of 40 each year. As incumbents retire or die, there is likely to be a fall of up to 70% in the number of working priests, and about three-quarters of those remaining in post will be over the age of 60. The church must consider recruiting priests from other countries and encouraging existing priests to work beyond the age of 75, the report said.



Baptisms were predicted to remain stable, but the report noted that this may be explained by “the preference given to children who are baptised when enrolling in Catholic primary schools. If this requirement is removed at any point prior to 2030, we believe there is likely to be a decline in the number of baptisms each year.”



This last issue is at the core of the campaign to reform Ireland’s school system. The Catholic church runs nine out of 10 state-funded primary schools, and about half of secondary schools. It sets criteria for admitting children and recruiting teachers, and determines religious education and instruction.



Unbaptised children are unable to get places in over-subscribed local schools, forcing their parents to look further afield from their homes in ever-widening circles. The result is long school runs and children separated from friends and their communities. Many non-religious parents find it easier simply to swallow their misgivings and baptise their children.



Jodie Neary, the mother of 18-month-old unbaptised twins Evyie and Mia, said: “The school system is the last stronghold of the Catholic church in Ireland, so it’s very important to them. I’ve never considered baptising the girls, but I know people who baptise their children just to make sure they can get into the local school. It’s very common.”



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Neary knows she is narrowing the options for her twins’ schooling by refusing to baptise them. “We pay our taxes but we’re not being catered for. Everyone should have a right to education,” she said.



Non-Catholic parents whose children are admitted to church-run schools have a legal right to withdraw their sons and daughters from daily religious education, or “faith formation” as it is known. But often such children are simply sent to the back of the classroom to read a book. And, in many schools, religious belief permeates other subjects, including science, geography, history and art.



The Guardian spoke to parents who reported children being assigned prayers for homework, given religiously-themed artwork and reading books, taught creationism on nature walks and enlisted in the construction of “prayer stations” with religious icons on school premises. “It’s hard to challenge this – you don’t want to be the parent who turns up every day to argue with the teachers,” said one.



Last month, the outgoing education minister, Jan O’Sullivan, abolished Rule 68 which gave religion lessons a privileged status in primary schools, ensuring 30 minutes a day was devoted to faith formation. The move followed a poll showing 85% of primary heads believed less time should be spent teaching religion.



O’Sullivan said the rule was anachronistic, adding: “I’m glad it’s gone.” In response, the bishops’ council for education said the teaching of religion in Catholic schools would not change. “The minister’s announcement does not alter the ethos of Catholic schools and that this ethos will continue to find expression in all aspects of the life of the school,” it said in a statement.



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A recent opinion poll, carried out on behalf of Equate, which is campaigning for reform of the school system, found that almost two-thirds of respondents back change. Almost half – 46% – would not choose a Christian school for their child if they had a choice, and one in five is aware of someone who has baptised their child in order to secure a school place. There was little difference in the responses of those living in towns and cities and those in rural areas, undermining claims that pressure for reform is confined to more liberal and diverse places such as Dublin.



Educate Together, which runs 77 non-religious state primary schools in Ireland – 2.4% of the total – says it cannot meet demand for equality-based education. “We are very significantly oversubscribed,” said the chief executive, Paul Rowe. “There is a huge thirst for an educational environment based on equality and respect for all. We could easily open another 25 schools to satisfy demand right now.”



Michael Barron, director of Equate and a longtime advocate for LGBT rights, said: “The desire for change is massive, and I think we’ll see an even bigger shift over the lifetime of the next government. You can’t say we’re a progressive country that prides itself on equality while discriminating on religious grounds in schools.”



Last month, the United Nations committee on the rights of the child called on the Irish government to take concrete measures to increase the availability of non-denominational or multi-denominational schools and to eliminate discrimination in schools admissions, the latest in a long string of UN bodies to demand change.



The UN has also called for a repeal of Ireland’s constitutional ban on abortion in almost all cases, known as the “eighth amendment”. Opinion polls in Ireland have consistently shown majorities in favour of allowing abortion in circumstances such as rape, incest and fatal foetal abnormality. A poll in November found 56% of respondents in favour of the referendum.



Activists believe that a grassroots movement similar to the one around same sex marriage in the runup to last May’s referendum could produce a majority in favour of repeal, although they acknowledge that the Catholic church would put up a tough fight.



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“The politicians are very conservative on issues that the church has strong views on,” said Michael Nugent of Atheist Ireland. “So the population moves on. It skips the stage of trying to change things in law, and people move with their feet on issues like divorce and abortion.” Almost 20,000 women travelled from the Republic of Ireland to the UK for abortions between 2010 and 2014.



Assisted dying is another issue on which the church may face challenges in the future. The Humanist Association of Ireland is holding a conference later this month to discuss end-of-life issues, living wills and voluntary euthanasia. “We see the possibility of changes in the law on these areas,” said director Terry Flynn.



McKillen, who has campaigned for the separation of church and state for 35 years, said change was long overdue. “The marriage equality referendum was an indicator of how far we’ve come,” he said. “But the authority of the church is still institutionally protected, even though its moral authority has gone, apart from a rump of older people.”



Educational reform and abortion are likely to be the big tests for Ireland in the coming parliament, he said. “The church/state nexus is going to be challenged.”



The present schools system was “anachronistic and archaic, and needs fundamental reform”. It was unfit for a democracy that this spring will celebrate the centenary of the uprising that led to its formation, he added.



He predicts that by the time Cara is an adult, “Ireland will have changed utterly”. “The church is no longer in the ascendant. And once we get a system of education that isn’t dependent on religious patronage, its influence will wane further. There is political momentum on this, and the policy makers cannot ignore it any longer.”



• This article was amended on 17 February 2016 to update the first photo caption.

