Let’s get something out of the way: New York Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr deserves to be paid handsomely for his football skills.

However, for those of you agree with former quarterback turned analyst Phil Simms that the Giants should break from their long-standing practice of avoiding renegotiating player contracts before they reach their conclusion, well, breaking a date with your significant other is probably going to be a lot easier and less painful.

I’ve heard the arguments on Twitter—the Giants need to lock up Beckham now before his price soars, the Giants need to clear out space so they can keep Landon Collins, Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, and so on.

Putting aside any opinions about the player’s maturity and skills, here is a rather detailed look from the business side about why the Giants are unlikely to extend Beckham in 2017.

They Don’t Have the Salary Cap Space

According to the NFLPA’s public cap report, the Giants have $9,557,127 left in cap space. That number presumably doesn’t include the contracts of defensive linemen Devin Taylor or Corbin Bryant, or safety Duke Ihenacho, contracts that were not reflected it the database as of this writing.

It also doesn’t appear to take into consideration first-round draft pick Evan Engram’s pending rookie contract, which per Over the Cap, should carry a $1.948 million cap hit in 2017.

So let’s do some projects and assume the three veterans all signed one-year veteran minimum benefit deals (explained in this primer). Each would then count for $695,000 against the cap and yes, each contract would qualify for a spot in the Top 51 highest Giants cap figures for 2017, about $2.085 million.

Add in the first year of Engram’s forthcoming rookie deal and the total of “new money” in the Giants’ top 51 comes to about $4.033 million.

However, four cap numbers from the bottom of the Giants’ current Top 51 would drop out to make room for the new money. Per Over the Cap, those four lowest numbers currently belong to linebacker Eric Pinkins, receiver Kevin Norwood, tight end Will Tye and running back Paul Perkins.

Deduct their combined total from the estimated new contracts, and the Giants’ cap space is projected to drop by about $1.648 million, which would leave them with an estimated $7.9 million of cap space to address any other signings/waiver claims they make once camp and the season get started.

But can’t they clear money if they need to?

Theoretically yes. But it’s not going to be that easy.

If you’ve noticed, the Giants, when they need cap space, usually go to players with bloated contracts who have either underperformed or who are coming off an injury and who don’t have guaranteed money due in the current cap year.

In trimming players off the roster, they usually go after guys who have two or fewer years remaining on the deal because at that point, the potential cap savings outweighs the dead money.

Running back Shane Vereen, coming off an injury-filled 2016, took a pay cut earlier this offseason. Running back Rashad Jennings (1 year remaining) and receiver Victor Cruz (two years remaining) were cap casualties.

Let’s take a look at the Giants’ top-10 salary cap numbers for 2017:

Player Base Salary Guaranteed Money 2017 Cap Number Eli Manning $13 million $13 million $19.7 million Olivier Vernon $11.75 million $11.25 million $16 million Janoris Jenkins $12.9 million $12.9 million $15 million Damon Harrison $8.75 million $7.25 million $10.6 million Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie $6.98 million None $9 million Justin Pugh $8.821 million $8.821 million $8.821 million Jason Pierre-Paul $1.25 million $1.25 million $7.5 million Brandon Marshall $3 million $3 million $4.468 million J.T. Thomas $2.975 million None $4 million Ereck Flowers $1.743 million $615,000 $3.925 million

As this table shows, eight of the 10 contracts have guaranteed money—approximately $58 million in total.

Usually when all or part of a salary is guaranteed, it’s done so under the condition of being guaranteed for “skill/injury.” If that clause is in the contract, then a team cannot take away the guaranteed money if the player was injured the prior year or noticeably declined in performance.

If a team does try to take away guaranteed money, they usually must give it back somewhere else—usually the form of an upfront bonus which can be spread over the life of the remaining contract.

Doing so stands to inflate future cap numbers on the contract which sets up the possibility of inflated dead money down the line if the player doesn’t play out the entire deal.

Ok, so why not cut linebacker J.T. Thomas and his $4 million cap figure?

The answer is they can’t, at least not yet. If they do, they will have to reach an injury settlement with Thomas, who given his inability to participate in any of the OTAs, probably can’t pass a physical just yet.

If Thomas were to be waived with a “failed physical” designation, the Giants not only would be charged the remaining part of his prorated signing bonus ($1 million), they also, per the CBA, will be on the hook for a maximum injury protection payout to Thomas, which is as follows (emphasis added):

The Injury Protection Benefit is a benefit available to a player if he meets the following criteria: (1) Suffers an injury in an NFL game or practice which causes him to be unable to play in all or part of the last game of the season of injury, or, which results in club-authorized offseason surgery; (2) Undergoes reasonable and customary club-required rehabilitation in the offseason following the injury; and (3) Fails the club’s preseason physical for the season following the injury and his contract is terminated.

In short, releasing Thomas now wouldn’t yield as much of a cap savings as you’d think would be the case. But if they waited until he could pass a physical to release him (assuming he’s not in their plans), then that’s a different story.

But if the Giants don’t extend Beckham now, they’ll have to pay more if he has another great season!

Eh, not quite.

The Giants picked up the option year on Beckham’s rookie deal, which means next year (assuming his contract isn’t renegotiated by then) he’s going to earn a cool $8.459 million base salary that will become fully guaranteed at some point in the offseason calendar.

That doesn’t quite make him the highest-paid player at his position for 2018—as of now, that honor belongs to Antonio Brown of the Steelers ($17.675), but it would at least move Beckham from 45, where per Spotrac he now sits, into the Top 20.

Let’s say the unthinkable happens and the Giants don’t get Beckham signed at some point in 2018. They can use the franchise tag on him for up to two years of they can’t get a long-term deal in place by then.

Ok, so if you’re telling me that the Giants probably won’t give Beckham an extension this year, how are they going to be able to keep him, Justin Pugh, Weston Richburg, and Landon Collins?

Disclaimer: The numbers provided here are ESTIMATES and are based on the information that is currently available. Also, the scenario I’m about to describe goes out the window if the Giants decide not to use the franchise tag as outlined below.

Let’s start with the projected salary cap space for next year. Per Over the Cap, the 2018 salary cap is projected at $178 million—and that’s before any carry-over and cap credits.

The Giants, as of today, are estimated to have $25,310,441 of 2018 space–again, that’s working off the $178 million figure and assuming they don’t extend anyone this year. That $25.3 million in 2018 cap space already includes Beckham’s fifth-year option.

Now let’s assume that Pugh gets the one-year, nonexclusive franchise tag, which is the same for all offensive linemen. Based on very rough and preliminary numbers I was able to gather and then calculate, that amount is estimated to be about $15.39 million for 2018.

That would leave the Giants with an estimated $9.92 million in space, which should be enough to accommodate the first year of Richburg’s new deal.

What about another free agency moves? Well remember that table I posted showing all the top-10 Giants with guaranteed money?

Well here is the 2018 picture:

Player Base Salary Guaranteed Money 2018 Cap Number Justin Pugh $15.39 million $15.39 million $15.39 million Eli Manning $10,5 million None $22.2 million Jason Pierre-Paul $11.25 million $7.75 million $17.5 million Olivier Vernon $12.75 million None $17 million Janoris Jenkins $10.9 million None $13 million Damon Harrison $7.75 million None $13 million Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie $6.48 million None $13 million Odell Beckham Jr. $8.459 million $8.459 million $8.459 million Brandon Marshall $5 million None $6.5 million Ereck Flowers $2.397 million $2.397 million $4.579 million

The take-away? Fewer guys in the top-10 with guaranteed money, hence making it easier for the Giants to shift funds around if they need more space.

In addition, guys like Rodgers-Cromartie and Brandon Marshall, both of who will be in the last year of their respective deals, are not necessarily 2018 roster locks. Should Rodgers-Cromartie and Marshall be salary cap cuts, the Giants would save about $12 million on those two transactions alone.

What about Landon Collins? He’s signed through 2018. Assuming the Giants get Pugh and Richburg locked up long term, and target 2018 to extend Odell Beckham Jr., they can always use the franchise tag on Collins in 2019 absent reaching a new deal with him.

If the Giants don’t re-do Beckham’s deal in 2018, chances are he’ll get the exclusive franchise tender in 2019, with Collins then becoming a top priority to lock up before he can hit the open market.

But here is yet another potential scenario to file away for 2019: quarterback Eli Manning is due to have a $23.2 million cap figure in the last year of his contract, a number that includes an $11.5 million base salary and a $5 million roster bonus.

If Manning and the Giants decide to part ways after the 2018 season, the Giants will gain $17 million in 2019 cap space.

File this away for later.

There is one other factor to consider ahead of the next blockbuster contract the Giants hand out: the looming end of the current CBA, which runs through the 2020 season.

A quick glance at the Giants under contract in 2020 shows this year’s rookie class, all of whom will see their deals expire after 2020 (the exception will likely be Evan Engram, who will presumably have the fifth-year option in his contract.)

Otherwise, the only veterans signed through the 2020 season are defensive ends Olivier Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul, cornerback Janoris Jenkins, defensive tackle Damon Harrison, and tight end Rhett Ellison.

None of those veteran deals extends beyond 2020, perhaps a combination of their respective agents anticipating what might come at the end of the current CBA as well as the Giants front office not wanting to find themselves in a deep financial hole, again pending the outcome of the next labor negotiations.

It will be interesting to see how agents and NFL teams structure contracts starting next year—will we see the four- and five-year deals that were a staple among the blockbuster free agency deals of the last couple of years, or will the new contracts starting next year be shorter as agents and NFL teams try to gauge the likely direction of future CBA negotiations?

Only time will tell.

Unless otherwise noted, contract numbers are from Over the Cap.