Federal elections: what's your new riding?

by Roberto Rocha, THE GAZETTE

At which block will Ahuntsic be split into Maurice-Richard and Bourassa? Which Westmount-Ville-Marie houses will lose the posh association and simply become Ville-Marie?

This interactive map that shows how electoral districts will change if newly-proposed boundaries are approved.

As mandated by law, last week a commission unveiled the new ridings for Quebec, which must be reviewed every 10 years to reflect population changes.

The new ridings are not final. Public hearings will be held across the province starting in September.

But if the 2011 federal election had been conducted with the proposed districts, would we have seen a different MP lineup in Parliament?

Such predictions are an inexact exercise, as more than mere numbers are at stake, according to Benjamin Forest, an associate geography professor at McGill University who specializes in Canadian politics.

"A voter in the (old) Westmount Ville-Marie might have voted for the incumbent candidate (a Liberal) because she had known him for a long time. If she is placed in Plateau-Mile End, she may switch her vote to the NDP if the party is a better match for her preferences, or because the incumbent there would be NDP in the next election," Forest wrote.

Likewise, he added, voters in a tightly contested riding are more likely to cast a ballot than in a party stronghold.

Different boundaries could also influence how hard parties campaign in each, Forest noted, and as a result, which way voters swing.

"A heavy campaign push by Liberals in a particular riding, for example, may push some voters into their corner, but if they were in a district that was not the focus of an intense campaign, they might vote for a Bloc candidate," he said.

rrocha@montrealgazette.com

Twitter: @robroc

Drag the map around to see the proposed changes in disctrict boundaries.



Enter an address (street and city):

Current districts

Proposed districts



NDP Liberal Bloc Québécois Conservative COLOUR LEGEND:

Source: Elections Canada. | Made using Google Fusion Tables with code from the Texas Tribune.