If you have made it this far without reading parts 1 through 3 of this big board, I strongly recommend reading part 1 here, part 2 here, and part 3 here. This piece will conclude my preseason board as it will cover my top 14 prospects at this point in the year. I have no doubt that my top 14 will change quite a bit over the course of the season, but these rankings are based on the knowledge available right now. I am ranking every eligible prospect, which means this group could shrink if a couple players follow in the footsteps of Miles Bridges and Robert Williams from last season and return to school. I will get right into the rankings, starting with the last tier of more than 3 players.

Tier 4

14. Lonnie Walker IV (Miami)

13. Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke)

12. Kevin Knox (Kentucky)

11. Robert Williams (Texas A&M)

10. Mikal Bridges (Villanova)

9. Miles Bridges (Michigan State)

Will Robert Williams finally start hitting jumpers? Image courtesy TexAgs.com.

Two wings, two forwards, and two bigs. This tier is made up of guys who I see as good NBA starters, but maybe not quite all-stars. That does not mean that these players will not become all-stars; for each of them (particularly Miles Bridges) it is well within the realm of possibility. It is highly likely that a player from this tier exceeds expectations and leapfrogs players ahead of him into the top 5, replacing whichever of the preseason top 5 players inevitably struggles. Of course, there is no way to know which players in this tier will outperform my expectations and which ones will disappoint, but each of these guys has a wide range of outcomes going forward.

Lonnie Walker IV scared Miami fans when he tore his right meniscus in July, but he has luckily made a quick recovery and has been cleared for the Hurricanes’ season opener against Gardner-Webb. Walker IV joins what might be the nation’s best backcourt, as he will enter the starting lineup alongside my number 21 prospect Bruce Brown and senior point guard Ja’Quan Newton. As his backcourt mates can struggle to shoot, Walker IV will use his elite outside stroke to help create space for their drives. Just because he can hit from three does not mean he cannot make his way to the rim — he has an elite level of body control and craftiness as a finisher combined with his 6’10.5” wingspan and chiseled 206-pound frame. He needs to improve the versatility of his handle as well as his off-dribble wiggle, sometimes limited to simple straight-line drives. He is extremely comfortable shooting off the dribble which makes him even more of a threat when opposing defenders close out without discipline.

Walker IV has the tools to cover multiple positions at 6’4.25” thanks to his long arms and strength. While his intensity can wax and wane, Walker IV should be able to step right into the role vacated by Davon Reed on that end of the court. Even though he is not an overly bouncy athlete, Walker IV has the functional explosiveness to get to the rim on offense and move laterally on defense. His biggest point of improvement this season is his on-court approach. Walker IV has a tendency to float on either end of the court and allow his talent to disappear for long stretches. Looking more engaged on both ends of the court will be key to Walker IV’s draft stock. Assuming he stays engaged, he has an elite physical profile and skillset at a position of need and could very well hear his name called in the lottery next June.

Wendell Carter Jr. is the most difficult player to peg amongst this class’s stacked center crop. He does not have the elite physical tools that many of the draft’s top big men boast, and he has yet to prove himself as a consistent threat from three-point range. With the need for NBA big men to shoot threes or protect the rim stronger than ever before, some may wonder where Carter Jr. fits in. His 9’0” standing reach is solid but unspectacular, and he is fairly ground-bound as an athlete. However, this does not preclude him from making his presence felt on the interior. With a strong base and wide shoulders at 257 pounds, Carter Jr. eats up space beneath the boards and makes a big impact as a rebounder, using his excellent hands to snare in loose balls. Known for being a straight-A student off the court, the former McDonald’s All-American is a genius on the court as well. He shows off his IQ with smartly-placed dump passes and gorgeous transition outlet passes and has drawn comparisons to Boston Celtic Al Horford.

Carter Jr. uses his strength to establish post position and finish at the rim and out of the post. He has proven himself as a capable mid-range shooter out of post-ups, which gives him promise as a three-point shooter going forward. Carter Jr.’s focus this season at Duke will be proving that his mediocre physical profile will not handicap him on the defensive end. By using his IQ, instincts, and strength he can compensate for his lack of pure vertical rim protection ability. While Marvin Bagley III is almost sure to block more shots than Carter Jr., it could very well Carter Jr.’s disciplined approach that anchors the Duke defense. As a throwback big with a next-level feel for the game, Carter Jr. is sure to be a favorite of a number of basketball purists this season in Durham.

Kevin Knox is the best prospect on a Kentucky squad that does not have a surefire top-10 prospect for the first time in what feels like an eternity. Knox has one of the best sets of measurables in the entire class, at 6’8.75” with a 7’0” wingspan and an 8’11” standing reach that will serve him well at either forward spot. Knox also will not turn 19 until August of 2018 and is the 5th-youngest player in my preseason top 120. Given his youth, it is not completely out of the question that Knox grows an inch or two over the next year. He is a very fluid athlete with the explosiveness to be a threat in transition. Like many of Kentucky’s forwards, Knox has plus ball-handling ability and can push the ball ahead on the break. His physical tools give him loads of upside on defense, as he has strong hips and promising defensive instincts. While not overly skilled on the offensive end, Knox has a projectable jump shot and will be relied on as a floor spacer for a shooting-challenged Kentucky squad.

Knox is still raw in many aspects of his game, as his three-pointer has not gone in at a very high rate this far in his career. He also has really struggled with turnovers and lacks the high-level passing vision shown by teammates PJ Washington and Jarred Vanderbilt. He also has a tendency to float on the court at times, something that will not fly at Kentucky where there are plenty of forwards who would be happy to have Knox’s minutes. Luckily for Knox, the early reports out of Lexington are very bullish on him and a strong season could easily land him in the top 10. Like a certain Michigan State forward, Knox’s ability to hit from outside will determine whether NBA teams see him as a 3 or a 4 at the next level, and that will likely be key to his stock. There seems to be a perpetual small forward scarcity in the NBA, and if Knox can show he has the skillset to play that position it will absolutely ignite more interest from scouts. Few forwards have the athletic ability and size of Knox, and fine-tuning his skills and IQ will only make him more of a matchup nightmare on both ends of the court.

Robert Williams is hoping that his sophomore season will not parallel that of former California Golden Bear Ivan Rabb, who like Williams returned to school after being projected as a lottery pick following a great freshman campaign. Rabb watched his stock slip throughout his sophomore year, and in June was selected 35th overall by the Memphis Grizzlies. Luckily for Williams, he is lightyears ahead of Rabb in terms of athleticism. The consensus number 64 prospect in the class of 2016 exploded onto the scene quickly in College Station thanks to his guard-like mobility and 7’4” wingspan. Williams’ 7.2 DBPM led the SEC, and he was an absolute menace near the rim as he blocked 3.8 shots per 40 minutes. He impressed with rare discipline for an elite shot blocker, only fouling out in 2 games last season. That said, biting on fakes less often will help him as a rim protector. Williams has a remarkable ability to switch onto guards and wings and be bothersome contesting shots on the perimeter. His top-tier athleticism helps him on offense as well, where he has a huge catch radius as a lob target and is a nightmare as a rim runner. Unlike many undersized centers, Williams is a beast on the glass, ripping down 12.6 REB/40.

Williams can struggle with his feel for the game, as he often looks sped up. While being played out of position as a power forward at Texas A&M does not do him any favors, he had far too many errant passes and puzzling turnovers as a freshman. With 7 games where he turned it over at least 3 times, Williams has to develop a better ability to take care of the ball. He has shown promise as a jump shooter but was extremely bricky last season, hitting just 2 for 18 from three. Despite his struggles, Williams has elite athletic tools and instincts on both ends of the floor and just needs to calm down and play his game. It would be awesome to see him shooting from outside consistently and diming teammates with slick high-low passes, but even if he is just diving to the rim, switching all across the perimeter, and blocking shots he will be an incredibly intriguing late-lottery selection.

Mikal Bridges really seems like he was created in a lab to be the ultimate “three and D” player. Last season as a redshirt sophomore, Bridges was among the best perimeter defenders in the entire country, using his 7’0.5” wingspan to create havoc for opposing offenses. Bridges ranked 15th in the nation in DBPM last year at 6.9, an elite number for a perimeter player. Like De’Anthony Melton, Bridges makes watching defense fun. He has huge hands that always seem to come up with steals and loose balls, and he can lock down just about any player in college basketball. The 2016–17 Co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year is also a bona fide shooting threat, hitting 39.3% on 4.2 3PA/40 last season and converting an elite 91.1% of his shots from the free throw line. He will definitely need to show a significant increase in volume this season, and with the departures of Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart, he will have ample opportunity to do so.

Bridges struggled heavily with consistency and volume last season, posting just 13.1 points per 40 minutes. While he was able to make a huge impact thanks to his defense and efficiency (67.6% true shooting), scouts will want to see a greater degree of aggressiveness as a scorer. With great finishing ability (79.8% at the rim last season) and a really underrated floater game, Bridges can afford to take a slight dip in efficiency in favor of expanded volume. Showing off a better ability to dribble the ball will be key for the native Pennsylvanian, as he attempted just 27 two-point jumpers last season. Bridges infamously put up a goose egg in Villanova’s second-round loss to Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament last season, and more disappointing performances on big stages will lead some to question whether he can handle the spotlight. Regardless, all signs point toward Bridges being a Robert Covington/Trevor Ariza-type player as a small forward who can space the floor on offense and play top-tier defense. Those types of players are as valuable as they have ever been, which could lead to Bridges being taken in the lottery.

Miles Bridges (no relation to Mikal) made waves when he announced he was returning to Michigan State for his sophomore season. Coach Tom Izzo even tried to convince his star player to go pro, but Bridges was resolute in his desire to stay. He is my pick for National Player of the Year, in large part thanks to his ability to do just about everything as a combo forward. Bridges is known best as a freak athlete, with terrific explosiveness as a leaper that makes him a constant threat for lobs along the baseline. He rebounds exceptionally well for a player who stands at 6’6.25”, reeling in 10.4 boards per 40 minutes last season. For some reason, he has developed a reputation as a poor shooter, but the numbers scream otherwise. He knocked down 38.9% of his 6.4 3PA/40, though his 68.5% free throw shooting is a slight concern. While not overly nuanced as a driver, Bridges’ thick frame and powerful legs allow him to make his way to the bucket on straight line drives and finish strong there, converting 64.4% of his 6.0 shots at the rim per 40.

Bridges is impressive defensively, as his athleticism and strength give him tons of versatility. While his mediocre length (6’8.75” wingspan) gives some bigger wings and forwards the ability to shoot over him, he is very fundamentally sound and has the feet to stick with players of all sizes. As expected, Bridges blocks plenty of shots thanks to his trampoline legs (1.9 BLK/40). This season he will spend more time at the 3 with fortifications in the frontcourt, which will be an opportunity to show NBA teams that he can consistently play that position at the next level. A unique player, there is not an easy comparison for Bridges at any level of basketball. Showing where he fits best will be key to his stock this season, as will displaying development as a playmaker. If his three-point shooting takes a dip, those saying that he is more of a small-ball 4 than a 3 will likely be proven correct. However, if he can maintain or even exceed his 38.9% from last season, he should have no problem playing small forward in the NBA. Teams covet versatility, shooting, athleticism, and character in the modern NBA and Bridges brings an abundance of each of those traits. A National Player of the Year trophy and a national championship would be a great way for the Flint, Michigan native to get his name in the discussion for a top-5 pick.

Tier 3

8. Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State)

7. Troy Brown Jr. (Oregon)

6. Collin Sexton (Alabama)

Can Troy Brown Jr. make a surprise leap into the top 5? Image courtesy Kelly Kline.

Here is where we really start getting into potential top 5 picks. While it would not be unprecedented for players below this tier to jump into the top 5, it is totally plausible that any of these freshmen make a leap into the top 5. It is worth mentioning that every guy in this tier is extremely young, all born in 1999. From here on out, every college prospect is a freshman. In the 2017 draft, it took until the 12th pick for a college prospect who was not a freshman to get taken. While the presence of Miles Bridges should lead to a non-freshman coming off the board earlier this year, it would not be a surprise to see a run on freshmen early in the draft once again. I will get right into breaking down these three youngsters.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is the youngest prospect in my top 60 outside of Jontay Porter, but he does not look or play like an 18-year-old. At 6’10” with a 7’4” wingspan and broad shoulders, Jackson Jr. has great tools for either big man spot at the next level. I say either only because Jackson Jr. is one of the few big man prospects in this year’s class that I can legitimately see playing the 4 or the 5 in the NBA. He has incredible fluidity at 6’10” that gives him the capability to spend time on the perimeter in the NBA. Jackson Jr. is more than willing to handle the ball, although he really needs to tighten his dribble as he coughs it up too much, especially in transition. Full of versatility, Jackson Jr. has shown great promise as an outside shooter throughout his prep career, although he will need to add more arc to his jumper. He was a late bloomer who came on strong the past couple years, particularly at the Nike Hoop Summit in 2017. His ability to shoot, handle, and block shots stood out in Portland amongst a group of big men that, outside of a certain Texas Longhorn, was mostly traditional in terms of their skillsets.

In order to spend more time on the interior in the NBA, Jackson Jr. will need to add strength. He has a frame that should easily add weight, so it is not too much of a concern for him. It would also be helpful for him to develop an identity at Michigan State — he does a lot of things well but has yet to establish a niche for himself. Still, his versatility and talent level are extremely high, and he is considerably younger than the current “big three” of big men in this year’s class. I would not be at all surprised if at the end of the year he had established himself as being on par with the other bigs who are currently thought of as the top tier of bigs in the 2018 draft. While his production at Michigan State might be slightly stunted by the big numbers Miles Bridges and Nick Ward will put up — particularly in the rebounding column, where Jackson Jr. can struggle — the advanced stats will hopefully still shine for the son of former NBA journeyman Jaren Jackson. With all the tools to be a big-time threat as a combo big, Jaren Jackson Jr. could be a surprise top-5 selection by next June.

Troy Brown Jr. is one of my personal favorite players to watch play in this year’s class. If you were to look up the word “versatile” in a dictionary, there would be a picture of Brown Jr. next to it. At 6’6” with a 6’11” wingspan and a thick 210-pound frame, Brown Jr. can play 4 positions on both ends of the court. He should have no problem stepping right into Dillon Brooks’ vacated role as a ball-handling wing. Brown Jr. is not going to be a typical wing with “solid passing instincts”; he could legitimately average 4 or 5 assists a game for Oregon this season. He is that talented as a playmaker for others. Even without an elite first step, Brown Jr. is a solid slasher with the ability to finish strong at the bucket. He can rise up off of one foot and dunk on Marvin Bagley III, for instance. I cannot stress enough how impressive his playmaking instincts are — he can legitimately run the pick and roll from the wing, an incredibly valuable skill in today’s NBA. Defensively, he prides himself on getting stops and has great size to play many positions. His 8’9” standing reach is elite for a wing prospect and his IQ level on the defensive end of the court is on par with his perception level on offense.

Brown Jr. has been knocked as a shooter, often dealing with stretches of streakiness and inconsistency with his form. When I saw him at the Hoop Summit he looked like a very strong shooter from outside and I would project him to convert somewhere around 36% from three this season. It is hard to envision Brown Jr. being a truly elite finisher in the NBA given his lack of elite bounce and explosion, but he does have a great combination of length and strength. It would also be beneficial for Brown Jr. to use Oregon’s facilities to try to get in the best shape possible, as he looks a bit out of shape in some of his high school film. Improving his body could unlock another level of athleticism as a driver. Overall, Brown Jr.’s advanced understanding of the game, youth (not 19 until next July), and positional versatility will make him a great prospect going into next year’s draft. On the last episode of Hardwood Homies I predicted that Brown would crack the top 5 in next year’s draft, and with a strong season of shooting from outside I could see it happening. He has the potential to light the Pac 12 on fire and carry Oregon during what has been projected as somewhat of a reloading year.

Collin Sexton is a good bet to lead NCAA freshmen in scoring this season. The 6’2” guard had a meteoric rise during the summer of 2016 as he led the EYBL in scoring and was named MVP of the FIBA U17 World Championship. Sexton is dealing with eligibility issues, but he will hopefully be cleared before the start of the season. “Young Bull” is an electric scorer with a lightning-quick first step who can dismantle defenses with his aggressive driving ability and underrated jump shot. He has great explosiveness near the rim, and while he is not a threat to consistently posterize defenders with thunderous dunks, he has all the tools to finish at the bucket. Sexton plays with the ball on a string, able to get to his spots all over the floor with ease. He has great body control and touch in the lane, able to convert floaters over larger rim protectors. While Sexton is still making strides as a jump shooter, he has a good looking stroke and a promising ability to pull up off the dribble. The Georgia native will win many fans with his passion for the game and competitiveness, and while he can let his emotions get the best of him at times, he is known as an absolutely relentless worker and plays with a clear love of the game.

Sexton will need to work on balancing playmaking and scoring in order to not get labeled as a scoring combo guard. He has long had difficulty with poor shot selection, eager to pull up in the mid-range even when heavily contested. Sexton has shown flashes of passing-mindedness during which he looks really solid. He is at his best looking for others, as his scoring ability will come through no matter what. With tons of weapons around him in Tuscaloosa, he should be able to do a better job of creating for teammates. While he competes defensively, he only has average size and can get disengaged off the ball. Sexton also shoots the ball in an overly one-handed manner, something that needs correction. Blessed with elite scoring ability and defensive tenacity, Sexton is the clear top point guard in a class weak on them. While the FBI stuff is concerning, his talent is undeniable and he will put up eye-popping numbers when he is on the court.

Tier 2

5. Marvin Bagley III (Duke)

4. Mohamed Bamba (Texas)

3. DeAndre Ayton (Arizona)

Texas freshman big man Mohamed Bamba might be the best defensive player in college basketball. Image courtesy University of Texas Athletics Photography.

This tier is incredibly fluid in my mind. Just a few weeks ago I had Bamba 3, Bagley III 4, and Ayton 5. I only just moved Ayton up to the number 3 spot because he has been killing it in Arizona’s exhibition games, playing to his full potential. I will not spoil the whole report on Ayton, but he has as much talent as anyone in this class. I would bet that one of these players disappoints this season and falls out of the top 5, and I would bet on Bagley III being that player. I think his lack of size and shooting ability will lead to his stock falling. I will get right into the low-down on Bagley III.

Marvin Bagley III walks onto campus in Durham as one of the most hyped recruits in years. Drawing comparisons to Anthony Davis, Ben Simmons, and other former number one picks, expectations are high for Bagley III. If it was not already apparent, I am skeptical of Bagley III reaching those heights. First, his physical profile: at 6’10.5” with a 7’0.5” wingspan and an 8’9.5” standing reach, Bagley III absolutely does not have the size to play center full-time in the NBA. This means that he will need to be able to fit in at the power forward spot. However, Bagley III lacks the shooting ability desired of most 4s in today’s NBA. Shooting a ghastly 13 of 56 from three in the EYBL last year and just 63% from the free throw line, he has a long way to go with his jump shot. It is becoming imperative for modern big men to either protect the rim or hit threes, and Bagley III has not shown an ability to do either at an NBA level. While he will still be valuable defensively thanks to his athleticism and shot blocking instincts, he will not bring the same value as the bona fide rim protectors ranked ahead of him.

Despite my issues with him, Bagley III offers a ton as a prospect. He was extremely productive in EYBL play last year, posting prolific scoring, rebounding, and shot blocking numbers (although it is worth mentioning he was beating up on guys a year younger than him). His motor and rebounding ability combined with his plus ball handling ability for a big man make him a menace in transition. I also really like what I have seen from Bagley III as a passer. He has struggled with turnovers in the past, but I love his instincts and vision. He is as good as automatic at the rim on offense, dunking with authority and using power dribbles to clear out space under the rim. I think he will shoot better from three than the 23% he showed in EYBL, although his percentage might still hover around 30%. He has looked jittery and sped up in Duke’s exhibition games, but I am not going to read too much into that unless it becomes a consistent issue. If he can prove that he can make a high-level defensive impact and/or shoot from outside, I will be all-in on Bagley III as a top 5, even top 3 guy. However, he simply has more to prove this season than the players ahead of him.

Mohamed Bamba is 7’0” with a 7’9” wingspan and a 9’6” standing reach. I could really end his write-up there, but I will be happy to gush about him for many more sentences. First, Bamba offers rare mobility for a big man at his size. The phrase “unlimited defensive potential” gets thrown out a lot, but it is legitimately true in his case. He has fantastic instincts on that end and knows how to use his size to alter shots. Bamba might be the smartest player in this draft, famously paying his own way to attend the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and it shows in his advanced understanding of defense. His light frame (which he really needs to work on strengthening) gives him lots of mobility in the open court and he really is blessed with unicorn-esque nimbleness. Bamba uses his tools to collect rebounds at an extremely high rate — a key aspect of anchoring a defense — even as his frame continues to add strength. He is surprisingly willing to put the ball on the floor in transition, and while he is not quite a grab-and-go type big man he can pull down a rebound and take a couple dribbles before kicking the ball ahead to his guards. A blossoming threat from three-point range, Bamba has enough mobility and dribbling ability to attack overzealous closeouts.

Like his counterpart DeAndre Ayton, Bamba has dealt with questions about the consistency of his motor. He does not often play with a high level of energy and can sometimes settle out on the perimeter. His post-up game has not made a ton of progress, and though it is becoming a less important skill for centers, it is disappointing that he does not have the interior scoring ability to take advantage of his size. Bamba has only shown his skills in flashes to this point, and as a guy who is a year old for his class (20 in May) will be watched closely in terms of the development of his three-point shot and handle. Bamba has all the traits that teams will look for in the next “unicorn” big man at the NBA level given his unmatched size, fluidity, and flashes of skill development. As long as he can play with a more consistent motor and show development offensively, Bamba will be a safe bet to go in the top 5.

DeAndre Ayton could be the next Joel Embiid. At 6’11.75”, 250 pounds with a 7’5” wingspan and a 9’3” standing reach (not to mention his ridiculous vertical), Ayton is a force to be reckoned with on the interior. He is a rim runner from hell, outrunning other bigs and using his athleticism to posterize the poor defenders that get in his way. A powerful roller, Ayton can get way up for lobs but also pop out to the three-point line. While the arc on his jumper is still somewhat flat, he has very solid mechanics for a near-7 footer and is more than comfortable shooting from outside. Ayton has even shown flashes of passing and ball-handling ability, and it would not be a surprise to see him post 2 assists a game for Arizona this season. While not overly refined in the post, he has all the tools and touch to be successful there. In general, he brings a complete skillset for a modern offensive big man, with touch from outside, massive roller potential, the mobility to attack defenders off the dribble.

Ayton also has tons of upside on defense, mainly thanks to his physical profile. Even though he is not a genius in terms of IQ at this stage, it is very easy to imagine him patrolling the back line of the defense and even hedging out on the perimeter once he gets coached up. Ayton rebounds the ball just as you would expect him to given his size and strength, and when his motor is running can do basically everything a modern center needs to do. “When his motor is running” is the big caveat with him. During his prep career Ayton often got pouty and sulky when things did not go his way, and he can float around the perimeter on offense instead of asserting himself. The early buzz from Tucson certainly points in a positive direction regarding his motor, but he will need to consistently play hard in order to alleviate teams’ fear surrounding his approach. His combination of size, explosiveness, mobility, and advanced skillset all point to him being another unicorn-type big man, but his mentality is the big question mark hanging around. A big year at Arizona could vault him into the discussion for the number 1 pick, but the onus is on him to prove that he is worthy of a team making him their franchise guy.

Tier 1.5

2. Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri)

Can Michael Porter Jr. make a case for being the number one pick? Image courtesy AP.

The idea of a “tier 1.5” is dumb, I know, but it felt fitting for MPJ. He is not on the same level as the top prospect (nobody is) but I still see him as a cut above the top big men. In most years Porter Jr. would easily be the top prospect in his class, but the 2018 draft is not like most years. Him being in tier 1.5 is to try to show that he would be a tier 1 prospect in basically any year, but that there is a certain Slovenian who is among the best prospects of all time.

Michael Porter Jr. should have been reason alone for Washington not to fire Lorenzo Romar, but sadly for Huskies fans, Porter Jr. will spend his freshman season in Columbia, Missouri rather than Seattle. If I was creating my ideal modern 4-man, chances are he would look almost exactly like Porter Jr. With big-man size (6'10" height, 7’0” wingspan, 9’0” standing reach) and guard-like skills, he is the total package as a perimeter mismatch nightmare. His fluid athleticism and high-level ball handling ability allow him to create shots with ease, and he has the jumper to convert those shots. He has a quick and high release that is extremely hard to contest. A monster athlete, Porter Jr. can dunk on defenders around the rim basically at will. While his touch on layups can be a bit inconsistent, he will only become a better finisher as he continues to add strength. He has a deep bag of tricks in the mid-range, blessed with feathery touch on bankers and floaters and a refined post-up game. Off the ball, Porter Jr. is an instinctual cutter who can get up for lobs along the baseline and is also an excellent offensive rebounder. While his three-point percentage might hang around in the low 30s, he has all the tools to be a number one option at the NBA level.

While Porter has great tools as a weakside rim protector on defense — having the standing reach of many centers does not hurt — he often lacks a sense of urgency on that end and can get lackadaisical, especially in help defense. I have doubts about Porter Jr.’s ability to defend smaller players, as he gets blown by pretty easily when he has to play perimeter defense. While he can step out and hedge pick and rolls without much issue, I do not see him as a primary perimeter defender. Even so, his shot blocking tools and elite rebounding ability will help him contribute to an NBA defense as he continues to learn to play smarter on that end. Porter Jr. also may struggle with efficiency this year at Missouri, as he will be asked to score at volume which could harm his percentages. He is still working out kinks in his outside shot and finishing ability, which could lead to some ugly shooting nights. Porter Jr. will also need to show more as a playmaker this season, as he often plays with a single-minded approach as a scorer. As long as he can tighten up his skillset and continue to show progress in terms of his IQ, Porter Jr. will stay in the top 3 discussion all year long thanks to his elite physical tools and precocious scoring ability. He just has way too much talent to stay on the board for long even if he has issues with efficiency.

Tier 1

Luka Doncic (Real Madrid)

Luka Doncic, a basketball savant. Image courtesy AP Photo.

Who else could it be? Doncic may very well be the best prospect since LeBron James, and possibly the most accomplished prospect since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar went by Lew Alcindor. As a prime candidate for Euroleague MVP at 18 years old, what Doncic is doing is truly unprecedented. He has real questions to answer about his game, but it will take a ludicrous performance by one of the NCAA guys to overtake him as the top prospect. He is just that good.

Luka Doncic has the highest basketball IQ of any prospect in this class. His masterful basketball mind is what unlocks the full potential of his game. At 6’8”, Doncic is a point guard on offense who is best defending 3s and 4s due to his below-average lateral quickness. His special passing vision makes him an elite playmaker, able to break down defenses and throw ludicrous Teodosic-esque passes that leave basketball purists salivating. His pick and roll IQ is wildly impressive, as he is able to manipulate defenses exactly how he wants to and see over them thanks to his size. Thus far in Real Madrid’s ACB and Euroleague season, Doncic has looked much better as a scorer, sending his foul-drawing ability into overdrive and converting at the free throw line at his usual high rate. Since he does not have elite burst, it will be key for him to draw fouls in order to maximize efficiency. Doncic’s ballhandling ability has also looked much-improved and it has allowed him to create much more space for his jump shot. While he has never consistently converted from outside at a terribly high rate, Doncic has great form and a long track record of great free throw shooting. A lot of his issues with percentages are linked to his overly ambitious shot selection, which is something he should look to correct.

Doncic detractors usually point to his athleticism as the major reason to not take him number one. They argue that his mediocre athleticism will make it hard for his game to translate to the NBA and that he will be a defensive liability. In all honesty, hand-wringing over Doncic’s athleticism is overblown. He has a fairly explosive first step at 6’8” and can beat most wing defenders off the dribble thanks to his elite ball-handling ability. Defensively he does not have a lot of room for error, but his fundamentals and IQ are at a very high level. While quicker guards can toast him pretty easily, he should be competent against most 3s and 4s. Doncic is also a great team defender who will bring his best value off the ball thanks to his high IQ level. In my opinion, the concerns about athleticism are only valid if you see him consistently matching up with guards. Most smaller players can easily beat him off the dribble, but the same is true of other forwards in this draft — even Michael Porter Jr. gets beat pretty easily, for example. When it comes down to it, Doncic is a winner who is incredibly skilled and has an incredibly high basketball IQ. He very well could be the Larry Bird of this generation as a basketball wizard who runs the point from the forward spots. I could go on and on about the unprecedented nature of what he is doing at age 18 in the second best basketball league in the world, but all you really need to know is that he is easily the best prospect in this class and that it will take a historic performance from someone else to pass him.

Rankings recap:

14. Lonnie Walker IV (Miami)

13. Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke)

12. Kevin Knox (Kentucky)

11. Robert Williams (Texas A&M)

10. Mikal Bridges (Villanova)

9. Miles Bridges (Michigan State)

8. Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State)

7. Troy Brown Jr. (Oregon)

6. Collin Sexton (Alabama)

5. Marvin Bagley III (Duke)

4. Mohamed Bamba (Texas)

3. DeAndre Ayton (Arizona)

2. Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri)