Jay Carney, the ex-journalist who worked as a White House spokesman for Biden, declares upfront, “I love him.” Carney says that the former vice president is sure to be taking in polling numbers and sifting the advice of his small circle of longtime political aides. “But I don’t think his decision is about, ‘What are the odds of me winning?’” Carney says. “It’s more fundamental: ‘do I have something to offer? And is my family up for it?’”

That second question is even more vexing for Biden than it is for most pols. His high-profile older son, Beau, died of brain cancer at the age of 46, in May 2015. Later it emerged that his younger son, Hunter—married with three children—had become involved in an affair with Beau’s widow, Hallie. In divorce papers, Hunter’s wife claimed that he had blown money on prostitutes, strip clubs, and drugs; the split was settled without the allegations being litigated. In 2017, Biden issued a statement to the New York Post’s Page Six saying, “We are all lucky that Hunter and Hallie found each other as they were putting their lives together again after such sadness. They have [our] full and complete support and we are happy for them.”

Biden must now weigh whether a presidential run would disturb the hard-won family equilibrium. Two strategists for possible Democratic presidential contenders volunteered to me that Hunter would inevitably become part of the public discussion if Biden were to join the 2020 race. Hunter seems to have a gift for dubious associations. He was on the board of one of Ukraine’s largest gas companies, which was owned by an oligarch with connections to Viktor Yanukovych, the Russia-backed Ukrainian president who was one of Paul Manafort’s prime clients. “You know how some people are both fuck-ups and earnest at the same time? That’s how Hunter is. He’s not a bad guy at all,” a former colleague of Hunter’s says. “Even as Hunter was a pain in the ass, Joe was supportive of him—he was a real dad. I don’t think he’s embarrassed by Hunter. But whether the family is willing to have all that revisited is tricky.”

Three years ago, Biden came close to mounting a primary challenge to Clinton, but chose instead to help his family heal from the fresh tragedy of Beau’s death. “In 2016, the decision was as much about keeping the family together and taking care of the grandkids and making sure that everybody was O.K.,” a Biden insider says. “Family responsibility simply outweighed whatever political calculus he may have been entertaining. I know that those personal considerations are in play this time, but obviously it’s different circumstances.” If Biden runs he’ll be calculating that Democratic primary voters, focused on picking the nominee with the best chance to defeat President Donald Trump, will consider his family’s travails irrelevant or sympathetic.

Hunter Biden responded to a request for comment with a long, self-reflective statement about his personal relationship with his father. “The important aspect of my complicated divorce (like all divorces) and an equally complicated life, marked by the tragic loss of my mother, sister and brother is this: My father has been a constant source of love and strength in my life,” he writes. “Even though my life has been played out in the media, because I am a Biden, my father never once suggested that the family’s public profile should be my priority. The priority has always been clear for my dad, as it is, now, for me: Never run from a struggle. Love people and find a way to love yourself. And remember that the two things are very much connected . . . So, you ask me, whether my father might not run for President because of reports about me in the news. What you fail to realize, in asking such a question, is that my father has always been proud of me—whether when I was volunteering for the Jesuits, or working as a lawyer. And he remains proud of me today. He loves me. And he loves the American people far too much to let any form of adversity stand in the way of service.”