This was supposed to be the beginning of Bernie Sanders’ comeback.

But if the Vermont senator fails to win the big prize Tuesday — Arizona, where polls show him facing a double-digit deficit — his expected string of victories in the caucus states that follow won’t make a dent in Hillary Clinton’s daunting delegate lead or erase the impression that his campaign can’t win in states with diverse Democratic electorates.


Still, after losing all five March 15 contests, the primary calendar is suddenly looking better for Sanders. Two of the three states voting Tuesday are in his wheelhouse — Idaho and Utah, both largely white states holding caucuses. Then, on Saturday, come three more Western caucus states where the Vermont senator could run the table.

A successful run of five wins over the next five days won’t solve Sanders’ delegate math problem, but it would serve to prime his powerhouse small-donor fundraising machine and enable him to justify continuing his long-shot campaign deep into the primary calendar — perhaps even through June.

Here’s the state-by-state Democratic breakdown for Tuesday:

Arizona: 85 delegates

Of the three Democratic contests on Tuesday, Arizona looks the most promising for Clinton. She’s won there before in 2008. And it’s a closed primary, which hurts Sanders, since it means independent voters can’t cast ballots.

On Monday, Clinton dispatched Secretary of Labor Tom Perez, a dark horse vice presidential prospect, to the state on the same day that she campaigned there for the first time. Former President Bill Clinton has been there to campaign on his wife’s behalf.

“President Bill Clinton has visited on multiple occasions to campaign on behalf of Democrats for the last two, four cycles,” Arizona Democratic Party Chairwoman Alexis Tameron said, pointing out that the Clintons are “very popular” in the state and have longstanding ties there.

Those connections have paid off. Clinton’s campaign is full of top Arizona Democratic operatives; she’s also been endorsed by The Arizona Republic and has touted her support from top Hispanic lawmakers, like Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego and Illinois Rep. Luis Gutiérrez, in a state where Hispanics make up roughly 30 percent of the population.

There’s been a dearth of Democratic primary polling, but what little polling there is shows Clinton with a big lead that has local Democrats speculating that she could trounce Sanders on a wave of support from minorities — especially Hispanics.

The Sanders campaign has countered with support from Arizona Rep. Raúl Grijalva and other prominent Latino officials, in addition to ads aimed at minority voters.

“[Clinton] does have the advantage among the Latino establishment politicians,” said Arturo Carmona, the Sanders campaign’s Latino outreach director and Southwest political director. But, Carmona continued, “when it comes to Latino voters” and Democratic voters under 40, “there's no question that we have the momentum.”

Idaho: 27 delegates

A caucus state that voted for Barack Obama over Clinton in 2008, Idaho is built for Sanders. Clinton hasn’t been to the state recently while Sanders campaigned in Idaho Falls on Friday. According to the Vermont senator’s campaign, the event attracted 3,200 supporters.

“People are wondering, ‘How come Hillary doesn’t visit Idaho?’” Pete Gertonson, a Democratic National Committee member from Idaho, said. “Bernie’s getting points for visiting Idaho. Hillary is not.”

Still, neither Sanders nor Clinton has focused much attention on Idaho in the past few weeks. Sanders spent less than $100,000 on ads there in the final week before the caucuses, while Clinton didn’t spend anything at all.

Polling of the Democratic primary has been rare: In the most recent public poll, fielded in late February, Sanders held a narrow 47 percent to 45 percent lead over Clinton.

A mock caucus held a few weeks ago had a similarly close result, according to Gertonson.

“[At] a mock caucus I attended a couple weeks ago in Boise, Bernie won that mock caucus of the state delegates by just a slim margin — like 55 to 45 percent," Gertonson said.

Gertonson cautioned that the state isn’t a slam dunk for Sanders.

“The enthusiasm is for Bernie Sanders, but Hillary Clinton is, I think, more organized,” Gertonson said. “So, will that organization pay off? Because they have been in the state, they have been set up at our state central committee meetings — the Bernie Sanders people just couldn’t quite get there in time. So, Hillary’s organizational skills have been set up and obvious in the state and they’ve been working the state. But personally, she hasn’t showed up. Now, will that personal difference, will Bernie just actually stopping in Idaho make the difference? It may. It may.”

Utah: 37 delegates

Utah has the hallmarks of a state that looks good for Sanders: It’s a caucus state with a predominately white Democratic electorate. But it’s largely gone under the radar.

Polling in the state has been scant, but the sense among Utah Democrats is that Sanders has the edge — a feeling validated by a recent Dan Jones & Associates poll that showed Sanders with an 8-point lead over Clinton.

“Hillary Clinton is not well-liked as a whole in Utah. Bernie Sanders is basically an unknown except for his label as a socialist, so people in Utah don’t dislike him as a whole, but the socialist label is what he carries on his back,” Utah Democratic Party Chairman Peter Corroon said.

Polling, Corroon pointed out, backs up the slight but significant Sanders lead.

“What I’ve seen from our polls is that if it’s just the Democrats polling then Bernie Sanders would win by a small margin, but, when you include the independent and other voters, Hillary Clinton is the favored candidate,” Corroon added.

The Sanders campaign has proudly touted the large turnouts in his appearances in the state: According to the campaign, a Salt Lake City rally on March 18 attracted 14,000 people.

Clinton’s been endorsed by the state’s highest-ranking Democrats: Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams and Salt Lake City Mayor Jackie Biskupski, coveted endorsements in a state where the most liberal Democrats are clustered in Salt Lake City.

Sanders and Clinton campaigns have focused the greater part of their attention on Arizona or other Western states that vote later in the primary calendar such as Washington and California. The Sanders campaign has spent just $234,000 on ads in Utah; the Clinton campaign has not spent any money at all.

“There has not been a massive amount of presence for either campaign — Sanders or Clinton — in Utah,” former Utah Rep. Jim Matheson, who’s backing Clinton, said. “I mean, you see occasionally in the paper an article about a group getting together for Clinton or Sanders, but there’s not this overt campaign that’s really been obvious out there.”

