The claim

A war of words has broken out in Tasmania over how many jobs would be lost if poker machines are stripped from pubs and clubs — a promise made by Labor ahead of the state election on March 3.

Labor wants to remove "2,375 poker machines from 97 Tasmanian pubs and clubs" within the next five years, in light of what it says is the widespread harm that pokies are inflicting on the local community.

As a consequence, anyone wanting to play the pokies would have to visit Tasmania's two casinos, which operate 1,185 machines — or hop aboard the Spirit of Tasmania, which operates 36 machines on its ferries.

The policy has infuriated the gaming industry, which warns job losses would seriously damage the state's gaming operations.

Liberal Treasurer Peter Gutwein last month endorsed the industry's position, saying it was well placed to make such predictions; after all, it was at the coalface, investing and paying wages. Once the jobs were gone, he said, it would feel the pain.

Sorry, this video has expired Watch Mr Gutwein make the claim

"The impact of taking poker machines out of pubs and clubs would cost thousands of jobs, and the industry, as you know, have said that they [sic] estimate that around 5,000 jobs would be affected," he told reporters on January 29.

Was Mr Gutwein correct in claiming that Labor's policy would cost thousands of jobs? RMIT ABC Fact Check investigates.

The verdict

Mr Gutwein is wrong.

Tasmania's gaming industry did not say thousands of jobs would be lost.

The Treasurer relied on a gaming industry survey, which predicted 1,038 jobs would be lost.

He also relied on the gaming industry's rough calculation that, in total, 5,100 jobs would be "affected" — meaning jobs would be impacted through reduced hours, changed duties or lost altogether.

Experts have called into question the methodology of the gaming industry's survey.

And, in an unusual admission, a gaming industry representative told Fact Check the industry was aware that some people engaged in public debate had misinterpreted the numbers — wrongly believing that about 5,100 jobs would be lost, when in fact the survey had indicated only 1,038 would go.

He acknowledged the misrepresentation had not been corrected on the public record.

A report commissioned by the Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance says reliable data on employment in the gambling industry are not collected by governments or industry.

The report estimates that in 2017, 1,086 full-time equivalents (FTEs) were employed in the delivery of gambling services across Tasmania, including 371 FTEs in pubs and clubs.

These numbers indicate gaming-related employment levels in pubs and clubs run in the hundreds of jobs rather than thousands.

The Treasury report refers to a number of other studies that have examined the extent of employment in Tasmania's gambling industry, either calculating job numbers or full-time equivalents.

Such calculations take into account the numbers of full-time jobs and part-time jobs. These studies also indicate that employment in the gaming industry totals hundreds of jobs rather than thousands.

How the gaming industry calculated job losses

As part of its plan to rid pubs and clubs of gaming machines, Labor is promising up to $55 million to ease the transition.

Its policy is a response to problem gambling; official figures show 0.6 per cent of the population — more than 3,000 Tasmanians — are classified as problem gamblers.

The Tasmanian Hospitality Association, an industry body that lobbies government on behalf of hotels, restaurants, pubs and clubs in the state, is running a campaign in support of its members entitled "Love Your Local".

Following the release of Labor's gaming policy, the association conducted a survey of its member pubs and clubs with poker machines (96 in total) in January 2018.

Demonstrators protest against Labor and the Greens' poker machine policy. ( ABC News: David Hudspeth )

It posed seven questions, including: "If electronic gaming machines were to be taken out, how many direct jobs would be lost?"

Fact Check emailed the association's chief executive, Steve Old, requesting the survey results.

He, in turn, asked Becher Townshend, a self-described "PR man for the 'Love Your Local campaign'", to respond.

Mr Townshend told Fact Check the survey was conducted because "we quickly realised that we didn't have any decent economic data", but the results could not be released because they were "commercially sensitive".

He said, of the 96 pubs and clubs surveyed, fewer than half (45) responded, predicting that 488 jobs would be lost.

Extrapolating from this, he said the Tasmanian Hospitality Association had estimated that a total of 1,038 jobs would be cut by its members.

Federal Group, a privately-owned company that holds a monopoly gaming licence in Tasmania, has endorsed the findings of the THA survey.

It is ultimately responsible for poker machines in the state's two casinos and all pubs and clubs.

How reliable is the THA's research?

Labour market economist Jeff Borland, of Melbourne University, told Fact Check the hospitality association's survey was problematic.

He noted that participants were likely to provide speculative answers in a highly politicised context.

"I certainly wouldn't rely on it as the only way to work out what's going to happen to employment," he said.

To derive an accurate picture of potential job losses, according to Professor Borland, the THA should have considered other sources of employment data, such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Professor Borland also said it should also have engaged in "sensitivity analysis" to produce a range of numbers with an upper and lower limit.

Furthermore, the figures had not been weighted to take into account whether the jobs were part-time or full-time.

Saul Eslake, independent economist and Vice-Chancellor's Fellow at the University of Tasmania, also criticised the THA's survey methodology: "I would call it inviting people to talk their own book."

He said job losses were unlikely to amount to more than 1,000 given that the industry had five years in which to transition to pubs and clubs without pokies, during which time Labor had pledged $55 million of assistance.

Both Professor Borland and Mr Eslake emphasised that it was likely that the loss of poker machines would free up cash that would be spent elsewhere in the community — potentially creating new jobs, which would offset any job losses.

What the Treasurer said

Mr Gutwein endorsed the gaming industry's position, saying Labor's policy would harm the industry.

It's worth noting again his exact words. A reporter posed the question: "Saul Eslake has rubbished the claims about the number of job losses if poker machines are removed from pubs and clubs. Do you stand by those earlier thousands figure that you previously quoted?"

Mr Gutwein replied: "Absolutely, the impact of taking poker machines out of pubs and clubs would cost thousands of jobs, and the industry, as you know, have said that they [sic] estimate that around 5,000 jobs would be affected."

Sorry, this video has expired Daniel Hanna from Federal Group says Labor and Green policy will have an impact on Tasmanian jobs

The imputation of his claim was that thousands of jobs would be lost — even though the industry has never claimed this to be the case.

Indeed, gaming industry representatives appear to have chosen their words carefully throughout the debate.

The THA's chief executive, Mr Old, told reporters on January 17 that 1,000 jobs were in "immediate danger of being lost", while 5,000 were "at risk".

On the same day, Federal Group's general manager of corporate affairs, Daniel Hanna, told the media: "I don't think the number of 5,000 has ever been claimed to be the job losses."

Where did the figure of 5,000 come from?

Earlier in January, before the Tasmanian Hospitality Industry briefed the media that its survey showed about 1,000 jobs would be lost, the association had tallied the number of jobs it believed would be "affected" by Labor's policy.

The association's campaign spokesman Mr Townshend told Fact Check that 96 pubs and clubs with gaming machines across the state employed a total of 3,000 people.

A further 2,100 people involved in gaming services were employed by Federal Group, including those who worked in the casinos.

Mr Townshend said the total of 5,100 was the number of jobs that the hospitality association believed would be "affected" by Labor's policy.

"That was taken by others to suggest that we meant over 5,100 would lose their jobs; that wasn't the case," he added.

Labor's treasury spokesman, Scott Bacon, entered the debate, saying "What the Government has claimed about job losses in the range of 5,000 is a complete lie".

Sorry, this video has expired Tasmanian shadow treasurer Scott Bacon rebuts Government's jobs claim

While Mr Gutwein and the Opposition's Mr Bacon sparred over whether 5,000 jobs would be lost, the gaming industry was aware that those engaged in public debate were misrepresenting the results of the association's survey.

"I was delighted when you guys [Fact Check] made contact, because I went, 'right, this will allow me to correct the record'."

So, had the association called the Treasurer's office to let Mr Gutwein know that its research suggested job losses would be 1,038 rather than 5,100?

"No, not on this specific issue," Mr Townshend replied.

"But we've made our information freely available to the Government and the Opposition."

Other research

Is there research available that is more reliable than the industry's calculation of jobs "affected", or its survey that found 1,038 jobs would be lost, which experts have criticised?

Tasmanian law requires that an independent review of the social and economic impact of gambling is conducted every three years.

The fourth such report, by ACIL ALLEN Consulting, was commissioned by the Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance and issued in January 2018.

As it happened, the gaming industry disclosed its job loss predictions just days before the release of the study.

The study found the gaming industry in 2017 employed 1,086 full-time equivalents (FTEs) in the delivery of gaming services across Tasmania, including 371 FTEs in pubs and clubs.

Assuming that one FTE was staffing a hotel's pokies room for the full opening hours, the study estimated there were 240 FTEs employed in poker machine operations in the 96 clubs and pubs (as opposed to those who worked in other gambling activities).

Would the removal of poker machines from Tasmanian pubs and clubs result in the loss of thousands of jobs? ( ABC News: Diana Hayward )

How many actual workers, whether they be part-time or full-time employees, does 240 FTEs amount to?

The report says a "crude estimate" of gaming room employees in pubs and clubs is 246 people (if the calculation is based on numbers of gaming licences).

However, it noted that this number did not account for part-time employees or gaming licence holders who no longer worked in the industry.

The report, which had previously used head counts rather than FTEs, sounded a cautionary note: "The FTE estimates . . . are based on limited industry employment data and stakeholder insights; as such, caution must be used when quoting these figures and it is important to note these accuracy limitations."

The report also noted that Tasmania's gambling industry accounted for 0.5 per cent of total Tasmanian FTE employment.

The gaming industry has dismissed the report's employment data, arguing that the shift from measuring head counts to calculating FTEs had "grossly underestimated" the job numbers.

For comparative purposes, the report looks at other estimates of gambling employment in Tasmania: employment data drawn from the 2016 census shows 646 FTEs engaged in all types of gambling activities.

A report for Anglicare estimates there were 200 FTEs in 2017 employed in the gaming areas of pubs and clubs.

And the Australia Institute estimated total gambling employment in Tasmania at 370 or 548 workers, depending on which of two methods of calculation were used.

Lead researcher: Sushi Das, Senior Researcher, RMIT ABC Fact Check

sushi.das@rmit.edu.au

@sushidas1

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