Jeff Sagarin NCAA football ratings

 Sagarin ratings index

All Contents Copyright © 2013 Jeff Sagarin tm . All rights reserved. Final COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2012 through results of 2013 JANUARY 7 MONDAY - BCS Championship Game RATING and PREDICTOR are now unbiased and the ELO-CHESS is also unbiased now. this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom (listed top-to-bottom & alphabetically) (3) teams listed by CONFERENCE (listed in order within conferences) The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 246 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 79. NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season. THREE different home edges shown: first for RATING , second for ELO_CHESS , third for PREDICTOR(PURE POINTS) The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 10 and top 30 respectively. For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all WELL CONNECTED, then the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal and the RATING , ELO-CHESS , and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on. The teams are now WELL CONNECTED and so all three ratings are UNBIASED. Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In ELO_CHESS , only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS , in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR , BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games. The ELO_CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO_CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) .

Conference Rankings

There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 SOUTHEASTERN (A) = 81.75 81.57 ( 1) 14 81.64 ( 1) 2 BIG 12 (A) = 79.99 79.38 ( 2) 10 79.54 ( 2) 3 PAC-12 (A) = 76.15 75.58 ( 3) 12 75.85 ( 3) 4 BIG TEN (A) = 75.87 75.05 ( 4) 12 75.24 ( 4) 5 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 72.83 72.73 ( 5) 4 72.82 ( 5) 6 BIG EAST (A) = 72.16 71.87 ( 7) 8 71.91 ( 6) 7 ATLANTIC COAST (A) = 71.64 71.92 ( 6) 12 71.80 ( 7) 8 WESTERN ATHLETIC (A) = 64.57 64.82 ( 8) 7 64.72 ( 8) 9 SUN BELT (A) = 62.95 62.95 ( 9) 10 62.95 ( 9) 10 MID-AMERICAN (A) = 62.60 62.37 ( 11) 13 62.44 ( 11) 11 CONFERENCE USA (A) = 62.18 62.64 ( 10) 12 62.52 ( 10) 12 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 61.53 60.79 ( 13) 10 60.94 ( 13) 13 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 60.97 61.82 ( 12) 10 61.64 ( 12) 14 SOUTHERN (AA)= 56.15 55.77 ( 14) 9 55.84 ( 14) 15 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 54.83 53.93 ( 15) 9 54.07 ( 15) 16 BIG SKY (AA)= 53.89 53.62 ( 16) 13 53.83 ( 16) 17 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 52.40 52.76 ( 17) 8 52.61 ( 17) 18 COLONIAL (AA)= 50.48 48.86 ( 18) 11 49.50 ( 18) 19 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 41.17 40.92 ( 19) 8 40.94 ( 19) 20 PATRIOT LEAGUE (AA)= 40.27 40.41 ( 20) 7 40.40 ( 20) 21 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 38.54 38.16 ( 23) 11 38.24 ( 22) 22 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 38.44 39.40 ( 21) 7 39.03 ( 21) 23 NORTHEAST (AA)= 37.77 38.26 ( 22) 9 38.15 ( 23) 24 SOUTHWESTERN (AA)= 35.11 35.06 ( 24) 10 35.08 ( 24) 25 PIONEER (AA)= 31.95 30.69 ( 25) 10 31.26 ( 25) 26 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -90.00 -90.00 ( 26) 1 -90.00 ( 26) CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 7 ATLANTIC COAST (A) = 71.64 71.92 ( 6) 12 71.80 ( 7) 6 BIG EAST (A) = 72.16 71.87 ( 7) 8 71.91 ( 6) 4 BIG TEN (A) = 75.87 75.05 ( 4) 12 75.24 ( 4) 2 BIG 12 (A) = 79.99 79.38 ( 2) 10 79.54 ( 2) 11 CONFERENCE USA (A) = 62.18 62.64 ( 10) 12 62.52 ( 10) 10 MID-AMERICAN (A) = 62.60 62.37 ( 11) 13 62.44 ( 11) 13 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 60.97 61.82 ( 12) 10 61.64 ( 12) 3 PAC-12 (A) = 76.15 75.58 ( 3) 12 75.85 ( 3) 1 SOUTHEASTERN (A) = 81.75 81.57 ( 1) 14 81.64 ( 1) 9 SUN BELT (A) = 62.95 62.95 ( 9) 10 62.95 ( 9) 8 WESTERN ATHLETIC (A) = 64.57 64.82 ( 8) 7 64.72 ( 8) 5 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 72.83 72.73 ( 5) 4 72.82 ( 5) 16 BIG SKY (AA)= 53.89 53.62 ( 16) 13 53.83 ( 16) 22 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 38.44 39.40 ( 21) 7 39.03 ( 21) 18 COLONIAL (AA)= 50.48 48.86 ( 18) 11 49.50 ( 18) 19 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 41.17 40.92 ( 19) 8 40.94 ( 19) 21 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 38.54 38.16 ( 23) 11 38.24 ( 22) 12 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 61.53 60.79 ( 13) 10 60.94 ( 13) 23 NORTHEAST (AA)= 37.77 38.26 ( 22) 9 38.15 ( 23) 15 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 54.83 53.93 ( 15) 9 54.07 ( 15) 20 PATRIOT LEAGUE (AA)= 40.27 40.41 ( 20) 7 40.40 ( 20) 25 PIONEER (AA)= 31.95 30.69 ( 25) 10 31.26 ( 25) 14 SOUTHERN (AA)= 56.15 55.77 ( 14) 9 55.84 ( 14) 17 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 52.40 52.76 ( 17) 8 52.61 ( 17) 24 SOUTHWESTERN (AA)= 35.11 35.06 ( 24) 10 35.08 ( 24) 26 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -90.00 -90.00 ( 26) 1 -90.00 ( 26) __________________________________________________________________________________________________

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