With his 8 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on the coldest day in Twins’ history, top prospect Kyle Gibson moves to an impressive 3-0 with an even more impressive 0.93 ERA. But after the dismal season he had last year, many in Minnesota and around the league have to be questioning whether this 2014 resurgence is some sort of fluke. While there’s no way of actually knowing this early in the season, I’d say that his final stat line this year is going to be a lot closer to what it is now than the 6.53 ERA he posted in 10 starts last season.

First, a bit of history on Kyle Gibson. Hailing from sunny Greenfield, Indiana, the 6’6″ 220-pound hurler went to the University of Missouri to play college ball. While college baseball stats should be taken with an even bigger grain of salt than most college stats, he posted solid numbers both years he was there, culminating in a respectable 3.84 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 86.2 innings his sophomore season. The Minnesota Twins agreed that the numbers were worth taking note of and they nabbed him with the 22nd pick of the 2009 draft.

While in the minors, Gibson was highly praised at every level. Baseball America rated his slider the best in the system every year from 2009-2012, and in 2010 his changeup got the same honor. In his 10 games at high-A Fort Meyers in 2010 his ERA was a minuscule 1.87 and his 1.04 WHIP was nearly as impressive. In 2013 at AAA Rochester he posted a 2.92 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. While those numbers aren’t earth-shattering for top pitching prospects, they’re solid enough that he’s been on the radar of many for quite a few years.

Now, back to the numbers in the majors. Yes, I’m aware of how terrible 6.53 is. I’m also aware that the .395 OBP he allowed last season is even worse. Still, looking at his full body of work, there’s no reason why this guy shouldn’t be considered the real thing. That’s especially true when you look beyond his numbers at the way his pitching style has evolved.

Traditionally, a lot of emphasis has been placed on the velocity of pitching prospects. That usually stems from the mindset that you can teach control, you can teach a breaking ball, but you can’t teach a 98 mile-per-hour fastball. There’s also the outdated mindset that a strikeout is better than any other out since there’s luck involved in a strikeout. That’s obviously true to a certain extent, but definitely not to the extent it’s viewed by many, and it’s certainly less significant for a starting pitcher than it is for his short-inninged counterparts.

Instead of throwing for strikeouts, Gibson is finding ways to get outs this season any way he can. Of the 24 outs he got against the Blue Jays today, only four of them were Ks. I wouldn’t go as far to call the hefty hurler Madduxian in his approach, but if he continues to evolve the way he has, that may not be too far off. Lately his fastball only clocks in at 93 mph, but it’s with his slider that he makes his money.

He was coming off Tommy John surgery in 2013, only throwing 152 innings total and adopting a style that had many fans of the organization wary of another top prospect turned bust. Guys who are 6’6″ inches usually don’t pitch to contact, so it was assumed that even with a tired arm, he would continue to try to strike guys out like he did in college and he did in the minors. So far, in 19.1 innings this season, he’s only fanned 10 batters. While a lack of strikeouts isn’t necessarily something to applaud a pitcher for, the fact he’s getting about 50% more ground balls than fly balls is. He’s keeping his sinker low and his slider lower, and if he continues to get groundouts instead of trying for strikeouts, that’ll bode very well for his season.

If he’s to have a successful season this year, especially after his lack of innings in 2013, he’s going to have to keep his pitch counts low. In today’s game, he only threw 105 in 8 innings. Mission accomplished. In last week’s game against Kansas City he threw 100 in 6.1. Not quite as good. The difference? Against the high-powered Toronto offense he only gave up one walk, whereas he surrendered four to the Royals. If he’s able to keep his pitches under control and he continues to get ground balls, he’ll be much better off than if he reverts back to going for that K.

While I do see him having a successful season, it’s only natural that the numbers are going to level off a bit. I think that’ll happen within the next month, keeping him from being 2014’s Patrick Corbin. Pitching for the Twins isn’t going to help his win total (the team only came out on top 66 times last year), so I see him falling far short of what his win totals might be otherwise. My predictions? 14 wins, a 3.15 ERA, and a hefty contract coming his way soon.

Sadly, those numbers may mean nothing. Even though most outside Minnesota hadn’t seen him throw before late last season, Kyle Gibson will be ineligible for the 2014 Rookie of the Year award due to his 62 career innings pre-2014. Looks like if he wants an award he better start fielding some extra grounders…