Through four games this season, the Patriots defense had allowed the second most points in the NFL. Tom Brady and the offense were keeping them in games and were the only reason the team was 2-2. The defense allowed 42 points to the Chiefs in the opener, 20 to the Saints, and 33 points each to the Texans and Panthers. That’s an average of 32 points a game.

Opposing offenses had multiple receivers running free.

Benjamin’s 43-yarder, Rowe and Gilmore both following Shepard, no one on Benjamin. Looked like Rowe thought Gilmore would pick up Benjamin. pic.twitter.com/EWbBKj4yLD — Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) October 2, 2017

The Patriots were giving up the second most points, and the most yards (by almost 250 yards) in the National Football League. The headlines were justifiably slamming the performance on the field. Ryan Wilson of CBSSports.com wondered if they could be a historically bad defense. Rich Hill at PatsPulpit.com noted that the Patriots defense was making other quarterbacks look like Tom Brady. And they were right.

Scoring Defense, 2017 Weeks 1-4 Rk Team G W L T W-L% Points For Points Allowed 32 IND 4 1 3 0 0.250 71 136 31 NWE 4 2 2 0 0.500 129 128 30 TEN 4 2 2 0 0.500 100 126 29 CLE 4 0 4 0 0.000 63 107 28 LAR 4 3 1 0 0.750 142 105 27 CHI 4 1 3 0 0.250 61 104 26 DAL 4 2 2 0 0.500 94 97 25 NYG 4 0 4 0 0.000 60 95 24 SFO 4 0 4 0 0.000 66 94 23 LAC 4 0 4 0 0.000 72 93 Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

2017 Yards Allowed, Weeks 1-4 Rk Team G W L T W-L% Total Yards Turnovers 1 NWE 4 2 2 0 0.500 1827 5 2 IND 4 1 3 0 0.250 1585 7 3 TEN 4 2 2 0 0.500 1547 4 4 NOR 4 2 2 0 0.500 1499 4 5 LAR 4 3 1 0 0.750 1471 7 Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table









The Turnaround

From week five, until today, the Patriots defense has been the stingiest in the NFL. It’s more impressive when you realize this total includes two touchdowns allowed by the Patriots offense. After the 32 points per game in the first four games, the defense has allowed only 14.7 in their next 11 games.

That’s almost a point per game LESS than the NFL leading 15.6 points per game 2016 Patriots defense gave up. It’s actually better than the 14.9 that the 2003 Patriots defense gave up – the fewest of the Belichick era. Obviously, taking the worst four games out isn’t a fair statistical comparison, but that’s not the point. The point is that this defense is much better than people are giving it credit for being.

The defense, which gave up 14 touchdowns in the first four weeks of the season, has only given up 16 in the last 11 weeks. They’ve become a Belichick/Patricia defense.

They bend but don’t break.

Scoring Defense, 2017 NFL, Weeks 5-16 Rk Team G W L T W-L% Points for Points Allowed

▲ 1 NWE 11 10 1 0 0.909 303 162 2 MIN 11 10 1 0 0.909 280 166 3 LAC 11 8 3 0 0.727 253 169 4 JAX 11 8 3 0 0.727 298 179 5 LAR 11 8 3 0 0.727 323 190 6 BAL 11 7 4 0 0.636 308 192 7 CHI 11 4 7 0 0.364 193 193 8 PHI 11 10 1 0 0.909 354 197 9 ATL 11 6 5 0 0.545 227 216 10 NOR 11 9 2 0 0.818 331 217 Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

This isn’t to say that it’s been the prettiest defense you’re ever going to see. They’re only 14th in the league in yards allowed in weeks 5-16. But they are giving up 113 yards per game fewer than they were in the season’s first month. (344 vs. 457)

That’s a drastic improvement.

So is the drop in opponents passer rating, from 116.5 – (worst in the NFL) to 81.6 (10th best). They’ve been better on 3rd down. Better in the red zone.

Why? How?

And this turnaround has been for the most part, without the services of their best defensive player, Dont’a Hightower. They’ve had to get a largely new group of players ready.

The strength of the defense has been the secondary that failed so badly in the first four games of the season became a strength. The defensive communication got better, as one might have predicted that it would. The much-maligned Stephon Gilmore got comfortable in the defense and became a reliable player.

They’re still giving up catches, but they’re contested catches, and the tackling has been much improved. They’re making teams make more plays, and nowhere does that show up better than in red zone defense.

Defense Totals Table (Weeks 1-4) Scor Scor Turn Turn TD TD FG FG Fumb Fumb Tm G #Dr Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Patriots 4 14 13 92.9% 1 7.1% 9 64.3% 4 28.6% 1 7.1% Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

Defense Totals Table (Weeks 5-16, note Chargers had no Red Zone drives) Scor Scor Turn Turn TD TD FG FG Int Int Down Down Fumb Fumb MissFG MissFG BlkFG BlkFG Tm G #Dr Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct Patriots 10 30 19 63.3% 5 16.7% 12 40.0% 7 23.3% 3 10.0% 3 10.0% 2 6.7% 2 6.7% 1 3.3% View Original Table Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com If anything explains the turnaround of the Patriots defense, it’s this. From 93% scoring to 63%. 64% touchdowns to 40%. This is how you play defense when you’re limited by the salary cap and without your best defensive player. You bend and give up yards between the 20s. But you don’t break. You make the big play when the field gets smaller.