LABOR is headed for a landslide victory at this month’s Territory election, according to an independent poll commissioned by the NT News.

The two-party-preferred vote has Labor leading the CLP 64 per cent to 36 per cent less than four weeks from the August 27 election. That’s a 20-point swing against the CLP from the 2012 election.

The MediaReach poll of nearly 900 people shows the Giles Government’s primary vote has now shrunk to a historic low of 22 per cent.

It also shows a historic collapse of the CLP vote in the Darwin northern suburbs and the fortified party heartland of Palmerston.

Labor leader Michael Gunner is the preferred Chief Minister with 46 per cent over Mr Giles with 29 per cent. Mr Gunner’s numbers are improving but 41 per cent of respondents have no view of him.

media_camera NT Chief Minister Adam Giles. PICTURE: Helen Orr

Mr Giles is facing his lowest personal approval ratings ever following a politically difficult week surrounding what he knew about the abuses at Don Dale Youth Detention Centre.

More than half of respondents to the poll say they have a negative view of Mr Giles.

“At this level, Adam Giles will do more harm than good for the CLP campaign,” a MediaReach spokesman said. “He’s had a poor favourability rating for some time and this is continuing to not improve.”

Embattled former corrections minister and current Attorney-General John Elferink is also strongly disliked by the electorate, with 53 per cent of respondents indicating a negative view of him.

Mr Elferink left town last week after being sacked as Corrections Minister in the wake of the Don Dale scandal. He is not seeking re-election.

The poll indicates the CLP will be wiped out in the northern suburbs of Darwin with Labor leading 78 per cent to the CLP’s 22 per cent. That trend continues in Palmerston where the CLP holds all four seats but is trailing at 37 per cent to Labor’s 63 per cent.

The only seat in the greater Darwin region that appears in play for the Country Liberals is the newly created electorate of Spillett, covering the area between Palmerston and Darwin. Lia Finocchiaro is the candidate in what many observers believe is a CLP friendly seat, made up largely of military personnel.

The youth justice issue has had an effect on voters, according to the poll, with 41 per cent of respondents saying the Giles Government’s handling of the abuses have made them less likely to vote for them. A further 36 per cent said it did not matter to them.

Fifty-seven per cent said the Giles Government was incapable of managing youth detention effectively – 43 per cent who said they could.

“This does not bode well for a Government that has a ‘tough on crime’ mantra,” the MediaReach spokesman said.

Asked whether the CLP deserved to be re-elected, 67 per cent of respondents said no, with 33 per cent saying they did deserve re-election.

The independent poll was conducted by MediaReach over July 27, 28, and 29. The automated voice response poll collected 887 samples weighted for population profiles with a margin of error of just over plus or minus three per cent.

TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Labor 64 (+20 from 2012 election)

CLP 36 (-20)

PRIMARY VOTE

Labor 36 (-0.5 from 2012 election)

CLP 26 (-24.6)

1Territory 6 (n/a)

Greens 6 (+2.7)

Independent 21 (+15)

Other 2 (n/a)

Undecided 3 (n/a)

PREFERRED CHIEF MINISTER

Adam Giles 29

Michael Gunner 46

Undecided 25

TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Northern Suburbs

CLP 22

Labor 78

Palmerston

CLP 37

Labor 63

Darwin Rural Area

CLP 46

Labor 54

Darwin inner Suburbs

CLP 44

Labor 56

*Poll of 887 people Territory-wide conducted on July 27, 28 and 29

*Margin of error 3 per cent