Playoffs? We talking about playoffs! April 30, 2013

The last two years have been full of new experiences for Canuck fans. Back to back President Trophies had the Canucks entering the playoffs as one of the favourites to win it all. However, in this shortened season, things are a little more familiar. Entering the playoffs as the third seed in the west, while flying under the radar is more commonplace for the Canucks. Despite the immense amount of pressure in Vancouver, the rest of the NHL seems fixated on the Blackhawks and Penguins and rightly so, they are the big dogs this season.

When the L.A. Kings won the cup, I learned something: all you need is a ticket to the dance. It doesn’t matter what seed you are as long as are in the top eight of the conference. This is the new NHL and any team in the playoffs can get hot and win the cup. Home ice advantage is not what it used to be.

The majority of Canuck fans, myself included, wanted to face the Sharks over the Kings or Blues. Conventional wisdom is that the Canucks tend to struggle against big teams that like to forecheck and crowd the net. If you want to get Vancouver off their game, just get in their face and run their players. Chances are the Canucks are going to try to make you pay on the scoreboard and not with their bodies. The last two series against Boston and L.A. were bigger, bruising teams that pushed the Canucks around, all the way into the offseason. San Jose is skilled, but they are not an exceptionally large or physical team, especially after trading away Douglas Murray and Ryan Clowe at the deadline. Even if this is the perceived favourable matchup, this is no guarantee. Here are some things to watch for in the series.

Loser Leaves Town

Vancouver coach Alain Vigneault and San Jose coach Todd McLellan are two of the longer tenured coaches in the Western Conference. It’s clear that the loser of this series may be job hunting after the season. Vigneault is the most successful coach in Canucks’ history, but the immense pressure and expectations in this town will cost him his job if they are bounced in the first round again. Fair or not, Vigneault will be the scapegoat for an early playoff exit. I was surprised he kept his job after the L.A. series, but one can argue that the loss of Daniel Sedin gave him an excuse (despite Vigneault admitting that he didn’t prepare for an extended absence by Daniel). There won’t be any excuses this time for Coach V. If Vancouver is knocked out early, he’ll be in the job market. McLellan replaced Ron Wilson after repeated failures during the postseason. Despite the coaching change, McLellan has not been able to lead the Sharks to the Finals; they can’t get over the hump. Just like Vancouver, a first round loss would be the second early exit in a row and McLellan can’t afford that. Fans in San Jose are aware of the team’s playoff failures and the coach will be to blame if it happens again. It may not be fair, but it’s the truth for both of these coaches.

This isn’t 2011

The Canucks and Sharks have some recent playoff history as they met in the Western Conference Finals two seasons ago. The series had plenty of offense, especially the Canucks power play that ran roughshod over the Sharks in the series. Game 1 and game 4 were the two best examples of the Canucks’ dominant power play. However, this isn’t the case today. Although the Canucks’ power play is heating up, it is nowhere near the level it once was. Goals have been hard to come by for the Canucks and they aren’t going to win with a barrage of offense like they did in 2011. The Sharks are in the same boat; they are not the same team that could roll four deep lines against their opposition. Both teams have recognised this and have changed their game to a more defensive style. Despite having three good centres, the Sharks are not as deep as they once were. They’ve relied on their outstanding goaltending and good checking to get them through the season. I remember watching Sharks vs. Canucks games during the regular season in 2011 and they were possibly the best games of the season. It was end to end, fast paced hockey and it was very exciting to watch. Sadly, this won’t be the case when they meet again on Wednesday.

X-Factors

Antti Niemi: It’s obvious that the Sharks’ playoff hopes rest on the shoulders of goaltender Antti Niemi. Niemi has been fantastic this season and should be a Vezina candidate. The Finnish goalie has been very good against the Canucks this season. Like many Finnish goalies, Niemi covers the bottom of the net very well and moves well side to side. The Canucks need to do two things to score goals: shoot high and screen the goalie. When Niemi is being screened, he tends to cover the bottom of the net, leaving the top wide open. Look at this goal scored by Jannik Hansen against Niemi this season:

The Canucks need to get bodies in front of the net and not let Niemi see anything. They need to emulate this play to be successful. Alex Burrows, Chris Higgins, and Zack Kassian need to get in front of Niemi to take away the goalie’s vision. If they can do this, the Canucks will win the series.

Home Ice: I know I said that home ice advantage doesn’t mean that much anymore, but there are exceptions. Both teams are better home teams than road teams, but the San Jose Sharks are the more extreme case. They are a spectacular 17-2-5 at home, the best home record in the league. However, they are a mediocre 8-14-2 on the road. The Shark Tank has always been a dangerous place to play and this year has been no different. HP Pavilion gets rocking during the playoffs, but I find that Shark fans are prone to getting nervous. Years of playoff failures have made Shark fans get very quiet when the game is not going their way. Despite having home ice, the Canucks need to steal a game in San Jose to win this series. To do this, they are going to have to get quick start against the Sharks and make the fans feel nervous. The Canucks are 15-6-3 at home and the series will open in Vancouver. It is crucial that the Canucks don’t let the Sharks get a split in the first two games; the Canucks need to expose the Sharks’ bad road record. Rogers Arena has the reputation of being a reactionary place; fans need something to cheer about or they’ll just sit on their hands. The Canucks need a good start, they don’t have to score an early goal, but they need something to get the fans going. I feel a lot better about this series with the Canucks having home ice advantage.

Special Teams: Ah yes, it wouldn’t be a Canucks article without the mention of special teams. Simply, the Sharks have better special teams than the Canucks. The Sharks’ power play ranks seventh in the league and their penalty kill ranks sixth. On the other hand, the Canucks’ power play ranks twenty second and their penalty kill is eighth. Vancouver’s power play has been heavily discussed this whole season and has disappeared at times. This season, the power play has been guilty of two major flaws. First, the Canucks sometimes have problems trying to enter the zone. Their patented drop pass has not been nearly as effective as it once was and usually leads to Vancouver trying to enter the offensive zone with no speed. Also, Vancouver holds on to the puck too much and is too hesitant to shoot. They’ve found the most success this season when they are able to quickly move the puck for one timers from the point. Ryan Kesler has not shown the ability to consistently hit the one timer on the left side like he used to, leaving teams to focus more on the points. The Sedins haven’t been able to work the puck down low for those easy tap in goals they used to score in bunches and I haven’t seen a successful slap pass in years. The Canucks just need to keep it simple: put bodies in front and launch one timers from the point. Jason Garrison needs to be on the first unit and he needs to hit the net with his shots. It may not go in at first, but force Niemi to make saves and go after the rebounds. At the very least, the Canucks need to at least create some scoring chances on the power play and not let San Jose gain momentum.

Prediction

I will fully admit that I am biased in my prediction. Having said that, I predict the Canucks to prevail in six games. San Jose’s woeful road record, combined with Vancouver’s home ice advantage will be too much for the Sharks. But this isn’t a lock.