Awarding a license to Genting, whose relationship with the governor has been up and down, would also expose Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat seeking re-election this year, to criticism on grounds of fairness. The company already operates a crowded slot-machine parlor next to the faded Aqueduct racetrack in Queens — which, unlikely as it may seem, has quietly become the busiest casino location in North America. Adding the Tuxedo site would only consolidate its commanding position atop New York’s gambling industry, competitors say.

“How many licenses are they going to give to one company?” said Jeffrey Gural, a rival developer.

To overcome those obstacles, Genting has tried to make its offer so rich that New York State will be unable to refuse it.

The company has committed to invest at least $1.5 billion in its development. It has offered the state government a lump-sum license fee of $450 million — more than six times the $70 million requirement. It has promised to build a $30 million highway interchange to bring visitors to its front doors. It says it will generate $400 million a year in state and local taxes, much of it for education, and has proposed to turn over another 6 percent of its slot-machine revenue — a projected $30 million a year — to benefit New York’s state parks.

Genting’s venture, like New York’s entire casino strategy, faces stiff headwinds. The gambling market in the Northeast is already approaching saturation, but is growing only more competitive: Atlantic City casinos are closing, but New Jersey is considering allowing slot machines in the Meadowlands or Jersey City, a few miles from Manhattan.

So a $1.5 billion investment in Tuxedo could be impossible to recoup quickly. And there is a ticking clock: The law authorizing new upstate casinos also allows three more to open in New York City and its suburbs after another seven years — at which point it gamblers would not have to head upstate at all.