IOWA CITY — Iowa is one win from the College Football Playoff final four, but so is Michigan State and that will be what Saturday night’s Big Ten championship game is all about.

Win and you’re in.

The Hawkeyes (12-0) held on to their No. 4 spot in Tuesday night’s CFP rankings, with Michigan State (11-1) right behind at No. 5. And then right behind the Spartans was Ohio State (11-1).

Iowa is in a “win and it’s in” situation and, rest assured, that head coach Kirk Ferentz has his team pedal to the metal toward that goal Saturday night at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium.

There’s also the what if and Iowa athletics director Gary Barta has to consider that.

“I’m laser focused on our next game as a competitor, but as athletics director I have to make sure I’m aware of every potential circumstance,” Barta said Tuesday.

The Big Ten is a lock to land at least one team in the CFP final four. That selection will be announced 11:30 a.m. Sunday on ESPN. And so with that in mind, what happens to the loser of the B1G title game and what’s up with the Rose Bowl?

Rose Bowl management committee chair Scott Jenkins released a statement Monday that said the Rose Bowl is working under the “strong presumption” that it will pick the school that’s ranked highest in the final CFP poll if the Big Ten lands a final four team.

That’s exactly what that means. It’s not set in stone, but it is the working presumption.

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“The strong presumption is we’ll take the next highest ranked team, which can work for you or against you, depending on where you’re ranked,” Jenkins told The Gazette. “If you’re ranked ahead of Ohio State, assuming Iowa loses, you’re going to like that.”

There was another part to his statement Monday that left room for interpretation. “The strong presumption is that we will select the next highest CFP ranked team in that conference. Only in extraordinary situations will we deviate from that presumption.”

Jenkins offered an “extraordinary situation.” It involved a Big Ten team in the CFP playoff, another B1G team that had made consecutive Rose Bowl appearances and a Big Ten team that hadn’t been to Pasadena, Calif., in a lifetime.

“It was several years ago Wisconsin was in our game three years in a row,” Jenkins said. “Let’s assume we had that situation. Let’s say Iowa is ranked No. 1 and we give up Iowa to go to the semifinal game and ranked No. 12 is Wisconsin, but ranked No. 13 is Minnesota.

“Minnesota hasn’t been in our game since 1962. Everyone agreed that we could jump Wisconsin and take Minnesota in that example. Everyone agreed that was an extraordinary circumstance. That’s one example that we tried and everyone said, yeah, that works.”

The “everyone” in this scenario is bowl officials and Big Ten and Pac-12 athletic directors.

Asked if the fact that Ohio State was last in the Rose Bowl six years ago and Iowa’s last appearance was 25 years ago, Jenkins said there’s no easy “who’s been there last” equation.

“There really isn’t,” he said. “It’s one of those things you put in a pot and stir around.”

The highest CFP ranking is a metric that’s easily explained. It takes politicking, ticket sales and whatever else out of the decision. Jenkins believes the amount of time the 12-person CFP committee spends on this deserves respect.

“You’ve got semiprofessional selection committee members,” he said. “These people are really working hard to come up with these rankings. It’s not just sportscasters, sports media folks or coaches.

“This selection committee that the CFP uses, far from perfect, spends a lot of time on this. They really do look at a lot of video and statistics. I think the rankings the CFP comes up with are entitled to a presumption of validity. And there’s no doubt that between a 7 and an 8 they’re pretty close, but that’s what all of our partners agreed, that we should try to go with those rankings.”

“Partners” in this statement is bowl officials and Big Ten and Pac-12 athletic directors. The Rose Bowl will make the decision, but everyone had a say in the parameters.

“They reserve the right to make the final decision,” Barta said. “That’s how it works.”

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com