Any form of Brexit will ‘pose a serious risk’ to Scottish farmers Scottish farmers will be worse off under every scenario after Britain leaves the European Union, researchers have found. A study […]

Scottish farmers will be worse off under every scenario after Britain leaves the European Union, researchers have found.

A study of the impacts of post-Brexit trade agreements found that leaving the single market and customs union will “pose a serious risk to Scottish farming”.

Fergus Ewing, the Rural Economy Secretary, said that all parts of the agricultural sector would be under threat, particularly sheep farms.

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It heaps additional pressure on the industry, with many farmers hit by the disastrous launch of the computer system that distributes EU farming subsidies.

Trade agreements

Researchers at Scotland’s Rural College looked at three scenarios and their impacts on beef, sheep, dairy and crop farming.

In the first, they examined the outcome of Britain securing a free trade agreement with the EU, similar to remaining in the single market. In the second, they looked at what would happen if Britain adopts World Trade Organisation agreements.

The third scenario is known as “unilateral trade liberalisation”, removing tariffs on UK imports, while maintaining them on exports.

Arable and dairy farmers were the least affected under all scenarios, with only a small number of farms expected to become unprofitable after Brexit.

‘Detrimental impact on farmers’

But it predicted bad news for sheep farmers, with researchers concluding: “In the extreme scenario some 89 per cent of the specialist sheep farms are expected to return losses in 2022.”

Mr Ewing said: “This study confirms once again what the Scottish Government has been saying all along – that the interests of farmers are best served by remaining within the EU.

“In all scenarios, failure to replicate the current trade arrangements with the EU will have a detrimental impact on farmers, with our sheep sector under particular threat.

“Furthermore, if any of these scenarios were combined with the removal of direct support payments at current levels, the financial consequences for Scottish farms would be much more significant, with pronounced reduction in net profitability across beef, sheep, and crop sectors.”

Steven Thomson, senior agricultural economist at Scotland’s Rural College, said: “Brexit is an extremely complicated process, particularly when it comes to agriculture due to the EU’s protection for the sector.”

‘Change is inevitable’

Andrew McCornick, the president of the National Farmers Union Scotland, said that “we need to accept that change is inevitable”.

At the union’s AGM earlier this month, he posed Brexit as an opportunity to fix a “broken” supply chain.

He said: “Many are working long hours and not achieving fair prices from the marketplace.”