DAILY UPDATE - COVID-19 I write a daily newsletter with verified statistics & interesting news about Covid. We only show data related to death tolls; data is provided by the John Hopkins University. My background is in statistical analysis & political science.



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Any feedback? Just reply to this email! 🗞️ SUMMARY ANALYSIS 🗞️ 🌎 This Saturday, the global death toll from Coronavirus reached 176k. In the UK, daily deaths increased sharply: +828 deaths (+82%). Official figures also show Covid-19 fatalities in care homes in England and Wales more than quadrupled in a week rising to 1,043.



In Italy, the number of people currently infected with the virus fell by 528 to 107,709 , the first significant decrease since the beginning of the outbreak.



In Europe, Netherlands and France plan to re-open primary schools. French children would return to school in staggered year groups, the education minister, Jean-Michel Blanquer said, with no more than 15 pupils allowed in each class. Scientists say this should not lead to increased hospitalizations “By opening childcare, primary schools and special education, more transmission is expected among children and their parents. However, it is expected that this will not result in much additional care and hospital admissions.”



In the United States, the number of deaths rose sharply to +2,751 additional deaths on Tuesday. The Senate passed a $484 billion coronavirus deal after weeks of deadlock between democrats & republicans. The legislation delivers funding to small businesses, hospitals and for testing Austria will allow restaurants and cafes to reopen and religious services to resume from the 15th of May, said chancellor Sebastian Kurz. Sweden reported its highest daily death toll since the start of its coronavirus outbreak, with 185 new deaths added to its total on Tuesday. Note that because of the lag in data from the health ministry, as much as half of these could have occured before Tuesday.



Mexico is entering the peak phase of the epidemic. Mexico's deputy health minister declared “We are in the phase of rapid spread where a large number of infections and hospitalisations are accumulated.” Mexico has already extended measures to contain the coronavirus until 30 May. 📊 WORLD STATISTICS 📊 💡 GRAPH OF THE DAY 💡 [ORIGINAL CONTENT] Over-mortality in Spain (until April 14th) Looking at over-mortality data in Spain until the 21st of April: Over-mortality rates we observed in late March / early April are decreasing significantly & trending towards usual mortality levels. In the last weeks, over-mortality decreased from 2.16x (last week of March) to 1.21x (week finishing 21st of April).

Total mortality is still 21% higher than expected.

Mortality from other causes than Covid-19 are now below total usual mortality rates. This is most likely the combination of several factors: Covid-19 affects people who already had pre-existing health conditions. Lockdown is 'sheltering' people who were at risk by reducing reproductive rates of other diseases, improving care and 'removing' other causes of deaths link (e.g. accidents).

It would be interesting to split this evolution by cause of death to assess which one of the hypotheses above are most impactful (unfortunately, Spain doesn't report data with this level of granularity). 🔥 MUST READS 🔥 How a frantic trek to a McDonald’s parking lot shows the scramble US states are facing for coronavirus supplies. Exploring the means states in the US need to resort to in order to obtain masks. For instance, Illinois chartered two flights to Shanghai through FedEx Trade Networks, each with a price tag of $888,275, to ferry millions of masks and gloves to back to the state.



🔥 Plague time: what does history tell us? Fascinating article on how epidemics are re-setters of history. Two things that struck me here: (a) the first reaction of western rulers whose best-laid plans are frustrated by epidemic has been, almost invariably, to blame Asians or Jews and to adopt the vocabulary of war and (b) epidemics invariably create a bigger role for the state, in good (better health systems, etc.) and bad (more authoritarian regimes).



🔥Reducing the cost of ventilators by 99.75%: researchers have created an easy-to-build $75 open-source ventilator with high-quality performance. Non-invasive ventilators are key to treat patients with breathing difficulty and respiratory failure (a common symptom of Covid-19). To understand how much of a breakthrough this is: a month ago, an ventilator cost between $30k-$50k. A team in NY brought it down to $3.3k. A week ago, a team of Indian doctors invented a $650 ventilator. Now, it cost $75. Exploring the means states in the US need to resort to in order to obtain masks. For instance, Illinois chartered two flights to Shanghai through FedEx Trade Networks, each with a price tag of $888,275, to ferry millions of masks and gloves to back to the state. Link to article Fascinating article on how epidemics are re-setters of history. Two things that struck me here: (a) the first reaction of western rulers whose best-laid plans are frustrated by epidemic has been, almost invariably, to blame Asians or Jews and to adopt the vocabulary of war and (b) epidemics invariably create a bigger role for the state, in good (better health systems, etc.) and bad (more authoritarian regimes). Link to article Non-invasive ventilators are key to treat patients with breathing difficulty and respiratory failure (a common symptom of Covid-19). To understand how much of a breakthrough this is: a month ago, an ventilator cost between $30k-$50k. A team in NY brought it down to $3.3k. A week ago, a team of Indian doctors invented a $650 ventilator. Now, it cost $75. Link to article 📚 GOOD READS 📚 CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus this winter could be worse, as flu + coronavirus may occur at the same time. Will governments decide to increase lockdown measure when winter comes?



📚 LabCorp’s at-home COVID-19 test kit is the first to be authorized by the FDA. Link to article Will governments decide to increase lockdown measure when winter comes? Link to article In 1918, the Spanish flu had 3 waves and the second one was by far the most deadly. CDC historical coverage 📚 South Africa is hunting down coronavirus with thousands of health workers. More than 28,000 health-care workers have spread out across the country, going door to door, taking down people’s travel histories, temperatures and other risk factors. Link to article



📚 Mince meat consumption increased by 42% in the last 4 weeks. Link to article



📚 Vietnam’s low-cost Covid-19 strategy. Link to article.



📚 The bailouts have begun. Many billions of dollars in government aid have gone out the door to shore up business of all sizes, and more is soon to follow. It’s time to see where that money has ended up.



📚 Coronavirus likely of animal origin, no sign of lab manipulation (WHO) Link to article



📚 How Erdogan is reframing a disastrous coronavirus death toll as an opportunity to suppress dissident voices. Link to article More than 28,000 health-care workers have spread out across the country, going door to door, taking down people’s travel histories, temperatures and other risk factors.Many billions of dollars in government aid have gone out the door to shore up business of all sizes, and more is soon to follow. It’s time to see where that money has ended up. Link to article Should the EU use perpetual bonds to finance Covid-19 recovery fund? George Soros argues that this would be easier, faster and least costly way to protect European economies than to rebuild each member's economy.



📚 The case for using a pulse oximeter. Richard Levitan, an emergency physician, writes that many people with Covid-19 are not recognizing they have low oxygen levels for the first several days they have pneumonia because they aren’t short of breath yet. Often by the time people reach the hospital with shortness of breath symptoms, they have to be put on a ventilator. To treat people earlier, Levitan recommends the widespread use of pulse oximeters, which can detect oxygenation problems and elevated heart rates.



📚How Brazil's favelas are organising to face Covid-19 in the face of government inaction. George Soros argues that this would be easier, faster and least costly way to protect European economies than to rebuild each member's economy. Link to article Richard Levitan, an emergency physician, writes that many people with Covid-19 are not recognizing they have low oxygen levels for the first several days they have pneumonia because they aren’t short of breath yet. Often by the time people reach the hospital with shortness of breath symptoms, they have to be put on a ventilator. To treat people earlier, Levitan recommends the widespread use of pulse oximeters, which can detect oxygenation problems and elevated heart rates. Link to article in the face of government inaction. Link to video

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