The Earth is round

The Holocaust happened

Climate change isn’t a hoax

Essential oils don’t heal sicknesses

There is no god

The above statements, based on current evidence, are very likely correct. Some of those statements I would even bet my life on being correct, but I still can not be 100% certain.

According to the idea of Solipsism, nothing except a person’s thoughts can be trusted. No one can be certain of the validity of data provided by third parties, the historicity of various records, or even the accuracy of one’s own sensory experiences.

As an example, let us take a look at Plato’s Allegory of the Cave:

According to Plato’s story, there is a group of prisoners that have spent their entire lives chained-up in a dark cave. Above them, casting shadows on the only wall visible to them, are puppeteers that are constantly putting on shows for passersby.

With their limited knowledge of the situation, the prisoners may believe that the world they live in is made up of two-dimensional dragons and unicorns. This is the best model of the world that the prisoners can come up with, and they are justified for believing this way based on their available evidence.

The Fallacy of Certainty

The allegory teaches us that absolute certainty is foolish. Even though the prisoner’s best bet at truth is the “two-dimensional dragon world” theory, they should recognize that they can’t ever have enough information to be sure. When they leave the cave and discover new evidence, they can reevaluate conclusions without feeling stupid or wrong.

It is never stupid to assume that the conclusion that has the most supporting evidence is likely correct, as long as it is acknowledged that there is always a possible lack of information.

For example, look at the claim that the Earth is round. The evidence:

The vast majority of scientists reject the flat Earth

Geolocation technology relies on satellites, which rely on elliptical orbits

We can see the curvature of the Earth in hard-to-fake images

Based on the above evidence, it is reasonable to conclude the Earth is round with ~99% certainty. There is always some chance of error, and that needs to be acknowledged. However, until more evidence is found that supports the flat earth theory, it is far more rational to believe the Earth is round.

Thinking this way helps us to not fall prey to confirmation bias quite as often, and is a fairly refreshing way of looking at the world. Never be afraid to change your mind when presented with new information, you aren’t being disloyal or traitorous, you are just being rational.

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