Mark Barrett

mbarrett@citizen-times.com

People who say Western North Carolina is just this side of heaven might be more right than they realize.

The number of deaths was greater than the number of births in 14 of the region's 17 counties during roughly the first five years of this decade, according to new population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Funeral directors escorted 5,480 more souls out of the region than physicians and midwives helped bring in for the period from 2010 to July 2015.

People moving to the mountains meant WNC's total population still grew 2.7 percent over the period, but the number of residents in eight mostly smaller mountain counties actually declined.

Population changes in the region contrast dramatically with those in Mecklenburg and Wake counties, home to Charlotte and Raleigh respectively. The populations of each county crossed the 1 million mark within the past three years.

Together, North Carolina's two largest counties now contain 20.5 percent of its population.

Farm to condo

Experts say both trends are a reflection of a national move toward urban living.

The rate of urban population growth in the United States outpaced that of suburban growth in 2011 for the first time in nearly 100 years, real estate management firm CBRE Global Investors said last year. Its report advised clients to invest in real estate in center cities and dense suburban nodes with sidewalks, bike lanes, public transportation and lots of street life.

"Americans once flocked to the suburbs in search of a better life. Today it is America's cities that entice younger workers with better options for their careers and lifestyles," the report says. "More than ever, talent is clustering in dense, urban areas."

Population figures in WNC reflected a different trend during the previous decade, the flight of baby boomers to retirement or semi-retirement in the Asheville and Hendersonville areas and the tier of counties along the Georgia state line that drew former Atlanta residents seeking a different lifestyle.

Only one county in the region, Mitchell, saw a population decline from 2000 to 2010. Jackson and Clay counties had the fastest growth rates then, each a little more than 20 percent for the decade.

The end-of-the-decade recession and accompanying housing bust cooled that growth. Jackson's population rose only 2.5 percent over the first half of this decade and Clay's was up only 1.1 percent.

Haywood County-based economist Tom Tveidt said the figures may reflect a long-term transition from baby boomers to younger generations as drivers of population growth.

Buncombe County had the highest growth rate for the period at 6.2 percent and still sees lots of retirees moving in. But some of the county's growth is because, "Buncombe is where the employment is," Tveidt said.

2 behemoths

In 1970, Mecklenburg and Wake counties had only 11.5 percent of the state's residents. There were lots and lots of pine trees between Raleigh and nearby Durham and Chapel Hill as Research Triangle Park was only beginning to catch on, and Charlotte's banks were well short of the national heavyweights they are today.

Forsyth County, with a county seat of Winston-Salem, and Guilford County, home to Greensboro and High Point, were then as now among the state's largest. But, their economies were based more on traditional manufacturing industries of furniture, textiles and cigarettes, with payrolls soon to come under pressure from foreign competition and automation.

Their combined share of the state's population has actually dropped a bit, to 8.5 percent, while high tech companies in the Triangle and finance, professional services and information technology have boosted Charlotte and Raleigh. That, says Chapel Hill-based economic consultant John Quinterno, is a demonstration of the "interconnection between (population) and the economy and industry concentration."

Over the past five years, the population fell in 48 of North Carolina's 100 counties while the state's population grew 5.3 percent to 10 million. The shrinking counties are typically small to medium-sized counties around the state where the decline of manufacturing has hit hard or coastal plain counties where agriculture is a major part of the economy.

"We've been talking about this urban-rural divide for a while and I think the chasm is only going to grow," said Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College.

The population trends are likely to help Democrats in statewide races over time, he said. Raleigh has had Democratic tendencies for years and most of Charlotte and nearby suburbs are gradually turning bluer, Bitzer said.

Trends in state and federal races are harder to predict, he said, because control over redistricting gives the party in power a tool to stay there. But Bitzer said it is inevitable that Charlotte and Raleigh will gain influence as they gain population while rural areas' power declines as the number of people they send to Raleigh and Washington, D.C., falls following the 2020 census.

The small get smaller

This list shows the estimated 2015 population of Western North Carolina counties according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates and the change from 2010.

County/2015 population/Change since 2010

Avery/17,689/-0.6%

Buncombe/253,178/+6.2%

Cherokee/27,178/-1.0%

Clay/10,703/+1.1%

Graham/8,616/-2.8%

Haywood/59,868/+1.4%

Henderson/112,655/+5.5%

Jackson/41,265/+2.5%

Macon/34,201/+0.8%

Madison/21,139/+1.8%

McDowell/44,989/-0.0%*

Mitchell/15,426/-2.2%

Polk/20,366/-0.7%

Rutherford/66,390/-2.1%

Swain/14,434/+3.2%

Transylvania/33,211/+0.4%

Yancey/17,587/-1.3%

*McDowell's population dropped by 7 people from 2010 to 2015, the Census Bureau estimates.

Millennials fueling Asheville population growth

Population trends may reduce WNC's political power

Life and death

These charts show the estimated 2015 population for Western North Carolina counties, plus the estimated births and deaths from 2010 to July 2015. Migration creates population growth in some counties where deaths outnumber births. Census Bureau estimates also include what it calls "residual" growth or decline that is reflected in total population but not assigned to either migration or birth and death.



Boom, boom

This chart shows the population of Mecklenburg and Wake counties in 1970 and 2015 and the percentage of the state's total population they made up each year.

County/1970 population/Percentage of NC/2015 population/Percentage of NC

Mecklenburg 354,656 7.0% 1,034,070 10.3%

Wake 229,006 4.5% 1,024,198 10.2%