Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy is battling to save his government in the wake of a resignations by 14 (till Monday morning) MLAs of the ruling Congress-JDS coalition. (Photo: PTI)

The Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance in Karnataka has been like that of the Bharatiya Janata Party's tie-up with the People's Democratic Party of Mehbooba Mufti in Jammu and Kashmir - unnatural and uncomfortable coming out as a political expedience for power. The BJP and PDP fell out after two contiguous stints in three years. The Congress-JD (S) alliance is on the track to hang itself with an even shorter life span.

The alliance was seen as a masterstroke with the Congress leadership offering unconditional support as junior partner to the JD (S) to keep the BJP out in Karnataka. BJP emerged as the single-largest party after the assembly election last year -- it won 105 seats - eight short of a majority. The Congress - 79 - and the JD (S) - 37 - were in position to win the trust vote if they joined hands.

But in less than two months after taking oath as Karnataka chief minister, HD Kumaraswamy broke down at a public event in July saying he was not happy working with the Congress and that he became "Vishkanth [Lord Shiv] and swallowed pain of this government." He had been sworn in on May 23 last year.

Kumaraswamy had gone public with his complaints against the Congress party mincing no words that the alliance has always been in trouble. He has on a few occasions threatened to quit and situation was brought under control only after intervention by the central Congress leadership.

Siddaramaiah vs HD

Much of the anger of Kumaraswmay was blamed on Siddharamaiah, the former Karnataka chief minister and a powerful Congress leader in the state. Congress MLAs owing allegiance to Siddaramaiah have frequently attacked Kumaraswamy, criticising him for his style of functioning and praising the former chief minister.

Some Congress legislators have even floated theories that the coalition would work better if Siddaramaiah is made Karnataka chief minister and the JD (S) takes the junior role in the government. This is not acceptable to the JD (S).

The fact that JD (S) patron HD Deve Gowda and Siddaramaiah don't actually see eye to eye, any attempt by the Congress to put him in the forefront is likely to cause divide in the JD (S) even though Kumaraswamy accepts the proposal.

Lok Sabha election rout

The Congress-JD (S) alliance went into the Lok Sabha election as a divided house. Several Congress MLAs were unhappy and so were the JD (S) leaders. Umesh Jadhav, the Congress MLA, joined the BJP ahead of Lok Sabha election. The BJP won 25 of 28 Lok Sabha seats routing the ruling coalition. Jadhav won from Gulbarga. The Lok Sabha rout set the cat among pigeons.

It was further complicated by the leadership crisis in the Congress party with Rahul Gandhi resigning as the party president. By the end of June it had become clear that attempt to mollify Rahul Gandhi was not going to work if he is not given a clean slate to begin afresh.

Congress leadership crisis

When Rahul Gandhi made his resignation letter public last week, it provided the necessary spark for the blast in Karnataka. Two MLAs -- Anand Singh and Ramesh Jarkiholi, whose brother Satish Jarkiholi is a minister in the state government -- resigned on July 1. The Congress later claimed Ramesh Jarkiholi was with the party.

But the political worsened on Saturday, July 6, when 12 MLAs submitted their resignations to Karnataka assembly Speaker Ramesh Kumar. Nine of these MLAs are from the Congress and three from the JD (S).

Independent MLA H Nagesh, who was inducted in the Kumaraswamy cabinet only last month along with the lone Karnataka Pragnyavanthara Janata Party legislator R Shankar, today resigned from the cabinet and withdrew support from the government. R Shankar, reports suggest, is likely to follow the suit.

Yeddyurappa and Operation Lotus

The internecine war in the coalition suits the BJP to launch another Operation Lotus using "resign and reduce" formula in Karnataka. This was first seen in 2008 when a number of MLAs resigned till the BJP was in a position to form the government in Karnataka and BS Yeddyurappa became the chief minister.

At 76, Yeddyurappa, despite having crossed the unofficial retirement age of 75 in the BJP, is active again in Karnataka. He has already said that the BJP should be invited to form the government if Kumaraswamy government falls.

However, while the Congress has blamed the BJP and Yeddyurappa for over a dozen resignations from the ruling coalition, Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy believe Siddaramaiah is the person pulling the strings.

Shifting number dunes

Karnataka assembly has a strength of 225 MLAs including one nominated member. A ruling party or alliance needs to have the support of 113 MLAs in the house of full strength.

Before the spate of resignations, the Congress had 78 and the JD (S) 37 MLAs in the assembly. It had support of one BSP, two Independent members and one nominated MLA.

Till date, 14 MLAs from the ruling alliance have resigned. Speaker Ramesh Kumar, however, is yet to accept their resignations giving time to the Congress and the JD (S) leaderships to cut a deal with the rebel legislators.

If the resignations are accepted, this will bring down the strength of Karnataka Assembly to 211. The Congress-JD (S) coalition's strength has come down to 106 - - Congress 69, JD (S) 34, BSP 1, KPJP 1 and Nominated 1. But this includes the Speaker, who can vote only in case of tie during no-confidence motion or a trust vote.

Practically, the Congress-JD (S) government will be in minority -- one short of required 106 -- if resignations are accepted. The BJP has 105 and is hopeful of winning over the Independent MLA to its side and "securing" a couple of more resignations from the Congress-JD (S) camp.