About three quarters of Republican early-state insiders say they believe Donald Trump has peaked — but many acknowledge that may also be wishful thinking.

That’s the assessment from this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top operatives, strategists and activists in Iowa and New Hampshire.


The controversial real estate mogul and GOP presidential candidate provoked some caucus insiders into offering expletives and other colorful language when asked whether Trump has hit his ceiling.

“The McCain smear and giving out Graham’s cellphone? What an asshole,” vented a New Hampshire Republican, who says Trump has peaked. “Trumpism does not represent some deeper sentiment within the party, nor has he tapped into something a more conventional candidate can now co-opt. His candidacy has as much substance and meaning as cotton candy. I didn’t like him before. Now I loathe him.”

An Iowa Republican said, “yes,” when asked whether Trump has hit his zenith, but clarified, “I’d like to think so. But who the hell really knows anymore?”

The insiders weighed in following another week in which Trump dominated political coverage.

First, on Saturday, he dismissed Sen. John McCain’s heroism during his time as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, causing the other candidates to scramble to denounce him. Then on Tuesday, he gave out Sen. Lindsey Graham’s personal cellphone number; and finally on Thursday, he descended — with classic Trump bravado — on the U.S.-Mexico border after repeatedly inveighing against illegal immigrants with particularly heated rhetoric.

He was greeted in Laredo by several people who gave him the middle finger.

“I hope and pray that he has peaked,” added another Granite State Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely. “The GOP has a chance in 2016 and it diminishes each time Trump increases his poll numbers.”

Trump has caused heartburn for the Republican Party since he announced his White House run on June 16. Some of the first words out of his mouth involved calling undocumented Mexican immigrants “rapists,” to the horror of many establishment Republicans who want to see the party take a more inclusive approach after an abysmal performance with Hispanic voters in 2012.

Since then, it’s just gotten worse for Trump’s competitors as he’s sucked up the media oxygen and soared to the top of some national polls. Several Caucus insiders predicted that Trump would flame out soon, but others said he won’t lose steam before the first GOP primary debate next month, and may have legs into the fall, though few expect that his momentum will continue as the GOP field narrows.

“Everybody is still watching to see what he will do next,” a Granite State Republican said. “It’s like riding down the highway and seeing an accident in the other direction — you know [you] shouldn’t look but you do. I think by September he will begin a downward descent as people get totally sick of his antics.”

In this week’s survey, Granite Staters were slightly less likely than Iowans to say that Trump has hit his ceiling. Among New Hampshire Republicans, 73 percent say he has, while 81 percent of Hawkeye State Republicans said the same. The numbers overall were about reversed among Democrats, who are enjoying watching Republicans grapple with Trump — 74 percent of them said he isn’t done yet.

“GOP establishment (especially in early states) and some media are in a panic right now about Trump, and are quick to develop a storyline that he can’t last,” said a New Hampshire Democrat, who like all participants answered through an online submission form. “The truth is otherwise. The base loves him, he keeps showing top tier status nationally and in early states, he (like Hillary) has 100 percent name ID, and unlike all others, doesn’t need either traditional donors or dark money ones. While there are some parallels to [Ross] Perot, this is a new phenomenon and existing precedent doesn’t apply. Who knows where this goes?”

Another added, “If peaking is poll numbers, maybe, but this guy is far from done. He has no reason to drop out. He is going to be the focus of the first debate.”

Here are three other takeaways from this week’s POLITICO Caucus:

Thanks in part to Donald Trump, not qualifying for the first debate is not necessarily fatal …

Eighty percent of New Hampshire Republicans, and 76 percent of Iowa Republicans, say candidates who don’t poll high enough to qualify for the first presidential primary debate on Aug. 6 are not doomed — especially because, several predicted, Trump will steal the spotlight anyway.

“The more the first debate is dominated by Trump, the less damaging non-inclusion will be,” said one Iowa Republican.

“Just wait: Pundits will talk about how ‘refreshing’ and ‘interesting’ it was to have a Trump-less debate where real issues were discussed and we could get to know a candidate more, beyond just how they answered or responded to Mr. Trump,” added another.

“The audience will be watching for the Donald show and the [others] on the stage will be marginalized. They will seem like props. To quote a great Republican President: ‘The world will little note nor long remember what they say here,’” said a New Hampshire Republican, cribbing from Abraham Lincoln.

Others said that controversy over debate rules — which the Republican National Committee, after moving to shorten the debate schedule, largely ceded to television stations — blurs the importance of the first debate.

Fox News has limited inclusion in that first debate to candidates who finish in the Top 10 in an average of national polls. The rest will get to participate in a one-hour event before the main show.

“We’re still so far away from the actual voting day, and the debate over debates have become such a cluster that no regular voter is going to rule a candidate out for not making the cut,” said a New Hampshire Republican.

… But missing out will take a toll.

Still, noted many insiders on both sides of the aisle, not qualifying is certainly not helpful. Democrats were more inclined to think getting onstage is important, with about a third of insiders saying not qualifying would kill a campaign, whereas only 22 percent of Republicans overall said the same.

“Not fatal, but anyone who misses it will be on life support,” a New Hampshire Democrat said. “Voters need to limit their choices and appearing in the debate could be a big part of that process. The question is, what will the candidates do around the debate to be relevant if they aren’t onstage?”

Overall, Republicans said the candidate who has the most to lose from not being on the stage is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, followed by former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Christie and Perry are both right on the bubble, but Fiorina, who has made a big push to get onstage, lags further in polls.

“Christie’s the guy who thinks of himself as the cleanup hitter. He is striking out in the polls, his fav/unfav has tanked all over the country, but if he can get that one perfect pitch, he’ll try and drive it over the fence,” an Iowa Republican said. “I don’t think he can salvage a lagging campaign with one debate performance, but there is precedent for it,” the source said, noting Newt Gingrich’s surge in South Carolina in 2012, driven in part by a debate tussle with moderator John King of CNN.

The numbers changed slightly when broken down by state: Christie got the most votes among Iowa Republicans with 30 percent, but a third of New Hampshire Republicans said it was most important for Fiorina to get onstage.

Twenty six percent of Democrats agreed that Christie most needed to be onstage — the same percentage that said John Kasich, the Ohio governor who announced for president this week, will also be damaged if he doesn’t make the cut because the debate is in his home state.

Jeb Bush should keep an eye on Kasich.

Half of Iowa Republicans and 54 percent of New Hampshire Republicans say Bush has the most to lose from Kasich — and 60 percent of Democrats agree.

“Both Kasich and Bush are fighting over the ‘reform-minded governor’ niche,” said one Granite State Republican. “Moreover, Kasich has an ability to eat away at Bush’s advantage among independents who would vote in … New Hampshire’s open Republican primary.”

“He’s Jeb Bush by a different last name,” added an Iowa Republican. “And that is important to people who are worried about nominating another Bush.”

In New Hampshire, where both Kasich and Christie are also seeking to court the center-right vote, several caucus participants noted that the Garden State governor was also vulnerable to losing some support to the Ohio executive.

“He moves exactly into their air space,” said a New Hampshire Republican who thinks Kasich could pull from both Bush and Christie, if he can keep his notoriously short temper in check. “He does town halls as well as Christie and has a record of getting things done that exceeds Bush. I guarantee that every voter who is considering Bush/Christie will now also look at Kasich.”

“Blunt-talking governors who have a successful record full of left leaning policy baggage draw from the same side of the pond,” argued another.

But some caucus participants — particularly those in Iowa — were skeptical that Kasich would gain enough traction to pull votes from anyone.

“Nobody is talking about Kasich,” said one Hawkeye State Republican.

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.