How is the Brexit vote impacting the U.K. economy? Investors are getting an early insight into the real effect of the referendum this week, with the first hard data for July arriving.

Gauges of sentiment have already given signs of a sharp slowdown in the British economy — with purchasing managers’ indexes in particular raising the alarm. The services PMI released in July delivered the most downbeat view of the sector since 2009, while last month’s reading on consumer sentiment showed the biggest drop in 26 years.

But those readings are only so-called soft data; the reports out this week are providing the first, official hard numbers on the U.K. economy since the June 23 referendum.

“ “The retail sales number will probably be the most eagerly anticipated, given the importance of the consumer to the U.K. economy” ” — Craig Erlam, analyst at Oanda

Inflation readings were the first to come out on Tuesday, showing a Brexit-weakened pound GBPUSD, -0.03% drove up consumer prices more than expected in July.

Jobless claims out on Wednesday unexpectedly showed a drop in people filing for unemployment benefits, a sign the labor market held up in the immediate aftermath of the referendum.

What’s now left this week is retail sales data, due on Thursday at 9:30 a.m. London time, or 4:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

“The retail sales number will probably be the most eagerly anticipated, given the importance of the consumer to the U.K. economy,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst, at Oanda in a note.

Can consumers save the U.K. from a recession?

The U.K. shopper is seen as having been relatively undeterred from activity by the vote, according to Erlam. The Oanda analyst expects retail sales to have picked up 0.1% last month, as he thinks any nervousness over the effect of Brexit was probably offset by good summer weather, which usually lures more people onto the high street.

“Should consumer sentiment hold up over the next six months, assisted by the bold moves from the Bank of England, then the U.K. may be able to weather the early part of the storm and possibly avoid recession,” he said.

“Whether this will remain the case as unemployment creeps up, as the BOE forecast it will, is another matter. But this will take a little more time to both happen and be reflected in the data,” he added.

Pound remains in the frame

Jitters over Brexit have hit sterling hard, sending the pound tumbling to multiyear lows against other major currencies since the vote.

The pound on Tuesday set a fresh post-Brexit low against the euro GBPEUR, +0.04% of €1.1462, its lowest since August 2013, according to FactSet. Against the dollar GBPUSD, -0.03% , sterling this week has dropped as low as $1.2866. That’s slightly above its post-Brexit low of $1.2796, hit in early July, which was also a 31-year low.

And another fall for the pound could be on the cards, if the economic readings prove disappointing.

“Sterling looks to have significant downside risk this week, as hedge funds increase bearish bets on the currency in the futures market, with contracts topping levels last seen in 1992,” said Ana Thaker, market economist at PhillipCapital UK, in a note.

“Whilst we cannot always rely on hedge funds to get it right, market sentiment has declined for sterling and may do so further as more economic data is released,” she added.

The inflation data out Tuesday showed the sharp slide in the pound has already had a significant effect on price pressures in the U.K. Import prices jumped 6.5% in July compared with a year before, the fastest pace in five years, while headline inflation climbed to its highest level since 2014.

Meanwhile, jobless claims out on Wednesday showed a surprise 8,600 fall in the people that applied for unemployment benefits after the Brexit vote.

The inflation data, labor-market statistics and retail sales are all released by the Office for National Statistics on its website.