From a mere speculated free agent that could fit the Cubs’ needs to a full-blown rumor chase and borderline obsession, I have to admit: I kinda always thought the Cubs were gonna get Shogo Akiyama.

The fit was so obvious. The cost was likely to be reasonable. The chance at some upside at the top of the order (and downside of a quality fourth outfielder on a team that needs it) was too nice.

But it ain’t happening:

Sports Hochi says Shogo Akiyama has narrowed things down to the Padres or the Reds, "high probability of deciding by the end of the year." Hochi is usually reliable with this type of information. https://t.co/vwizmzQa8I — Patrick Newman (@npbtracker) December 27, 2019

As always, you take the translated version with a grain of salt, but I tend to trust Patrick Newman, and if he trusts the Hochi report, then I buy it. Also … given all the things we know at this point, would it surprise you that the Cubs are now out on Akiyama?

Whether it was the foot injury at the end of his year, or the competitiveness of his marketplace, or the – let’s be honest – total lack of an ability to commit to new guaranteed contracts until other deals are done, the Cubs started feeling like a long shot for Akiyama about a week ago (right around the time we discerned that The 2020 Plan might involve some aggressive stepping back this year anyway).

Within the context of what I anticipate the Cubs are going to do in 2020 – a year in which Akiyama will be 32, and likely will have his best season in MLB – I could understand why they wouldn’t go all out to get him, as the Padres and Reds might. And if there is a set-in-stone goal to get under the luxury tax in 2020, then the Cubs really couldn’t risk signing Akiyama to even a $5 million AAV deal in case they aren’t later able to move other contracts.

I get these things on a thinking-brain level. It doesn’t make me feel less annoyed in the moment, though.

It does, however, make me feel all the more emboldened to say that if the Cubs do wind up punting on 2020 and getting under the luxury tax, they sure as hell better be extremely aggressive thereafter in free agency and extensions. Don’t you dare punt on a competitive season like 2020 in exchange for a better 2021 and beyond and then *NOT* do all the things necessary to actually make that transition effective …