The Preliminary draw of the 2018 World Cup has wrapped up in St. Petersburg. Each team in each region knows who they need to defeat in order to get to Russia 2018. Today, I look at my favorite and smallest region, Oceania.

We start with the first round of qualifications. From August 31 to September 4, four teams (that were determined by OFC) will play each other once. The winner of the group will advance to the OFC Nations Cup, which is acting as the second round of qualifiers.

Source: Wikipedia

Today’s draw meant the winner of this group will be put into Group A of the OFC Nations Cup. Group A consists of Tahiti, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, and the winners of round 1. Group B has the likes of New Zealand, Solomon Islands, Fiji, and Vanuatu.

Source: Wikipedia

The top 3 teams of each group will then play each other again. The winners of each group will play a to legged playoff, and the winner of the playoff will face the fifth place finisher from the CONMEBOL.

Predictions:

We’ll start with round one. American Samoa look to one up their historic run in 2011, but will have to do so without Thomas Rongen. Rongen is now coaching the Tampa Bay Rowdies, but says he will tune into the American Samoa matches. But the boys from the territory can do well with players like Rawlston Masaniai and Shalom Luani. Luani is coming off good performances in the 2014 qualifiers, getting two goals in three games. He also is a memeber of the Washington State football team, which will help him be well conditioned. However, since he is a member of a collegiate team, he may not be able to make the trip.

Tonga will have their country behind them as they host the first round. Star midfielder Taufahema looks to add to his goal count, and give the Tongan National Team their first ever second round berth.

The Cook Islands may be the bottom team, but their new coach Drew Sherman has high ambitions for the squad. He told SkySports that “the team is very young”. He believes having a young team will build experience and be beneficial for the future. The Welshman also says the team and federation expect to win the group.

Samoa come in as favorites. The team are coming off winning the first round of qualifiers in 2011, where they dramatically defeated rivals American Samoa with a 90th minute goal. They are the most advanced country out of the group, which reflects to their footballing success. Club football succeeded at the OFC Champions League, with Lupe Ole Soaga drawing Tahitian Champions 3-3. They hope to carry this momentum and do “business as usual”.

I will be cheering for American Samoa, but I do think Samoa will take care of business. While football is certainly growing in the other islands, we may have to wait until the 2022 qualifiers for a new winner. But don’t be shocked if Samoa is dethroned.

We now look into round 2, or the OFC Nations Cup. The winner of this will go to the 2017 Confederations Cup. We all know the Cinderella story in Tahiti in the 2013 Confederations Cup, which shows that New Zealand may not be so dominant.

In group A, I expect Tahiti and New Caledonia to advance. The winner of round one is too weak compared to their opponents, and I think the experience from New Caledonia and Tahiti is too much for Papua New Guinea. However, I expect Papua New Guinea to finish 3rd and get to the third World Cup qualifying round.

Group B has the region powerhouse New Zealand. They’re clear favorites to not only win the tournament, but to advance to the intercontinental playoff. I expect the all whites to advance in the tournament along with Fiji. Fiji qualified for the olympics and also had a strong performance in the FIFA U-20 World Cup, and are keen to be the ones that take down New Zeland. Who will finish third? That’s a tough one. This group, aside from New Zeland, is very tight. However, I think the Solomon Islands will edge out Vanuatu. Benjamin Totori is a good player and will carry the Solomons to the final phase of qualifications. But it wouldn’t surprise me if any of those three teams advance.

I will do a full OFC Nations Cup prediction post when the tournament rolls around.

The third and final round is two groups consisting of the top three teams of each group from the OFC Nations Cup. At the end of the third round, I expect Group A to be represented by New Caledonia. This was hard to choose because New Caledonia and Tahiti are very close. But, New Caledonia have multiple people playing in France. That experience will help majorly.

In group B, I think it’s safe to say New Zealand will represent. Fiji may cause a scare, but the all whites are just too strong compared to the rest of their group. There’s not much else to say.

Now, the final round- New Zealand vs. New Caledonia (according to me). I hope New Zealand is finally knocked down, but I think they go through on a very narrow aggregate score. The 2012 OFC Nations Cup showed that they are not all dominant anymore, so this may be the final time we see New Zealand sweep the region.

The OFC looks to prove the world wrong. The world believes it would take a miracle for the CONMEBOL team to lose out to the OFC, but it’s football. Anything can happen.