January 2020 updates for the Census 2020 Hard to Count map

Here are the latest updates to the HTC 2020 map to help you plan your Get Out the Count campaigns:

The 2020 Count Begins in Alaska!

On January 21 the Census Bureau will officially begin the 2020 census enumeration in Toksook Bay, Alaska. We have added a special feature to the HTC 2020 map to help promote the start of the 2020 count.

Starting today, visitors to the map will see a new graphic emphasizing that the 2020 Census begins in Alaska. The graphic incorporates the 2020 Census American Indian and Alaska Native logo, embellished with a sweeping arrow pointing to Toksook Bay, emphasizing that the census “Starts Here” in 2020.

The pink color-shading at the map above represents the areas covered by the Census Bureau's Remote Alaska operation, in which census takers visit housing units to count household members in-person (rather than mailing or hand-delivering a census packet). Areas in yellow are where census packets will be hand-delivered, and areas in blue are part of the Update/Enumerate operation (in which households are counted directly in-person, just like the Remote Alaska operation).

Clicking on Toksook Bay on the HTC map will highlight Tract 1 in the Bethel Census Area which includes a larger area around the community where the decennial census will begin. Only 600 or so people live in Toksook Bay itself, but almost 10,000 live throughout Tract 1 in almost 2,200 households. See the map image below.

All households in Tract 1 will be counted in-person for the 2020 Census. The tract includes two dozen Alaska Native Village Statistical Areas (ANVSAs) which are shown on the map in light green including the Toksook Bay ANVSA itself (see map below). Tract 1 also includes several cities and "Census Designated Places" (some of which are coterminous with ANVSAs), but the tract's boundaries are drawn around Bethel City, which is within Tract 2 in Bethel Census Area.

Tract 1 and many other tracts across Alaska are considered hard to count. The light orange crosshatching across the tract in the map below indicates that during the 2010 Census, households in this tract were counted in-person through the Update/Enumerate operation, where census takers visited households to update each unit's address and enumerate the household members directly. This tract therefore did not have a mail return rate from 2010 (which is the primary metric at the HTC 2020 map to indicate areas that are hardest to count), but the net undercount in Update/Enumerate tracts was nearly 8%, a substantially greater undercount than other areas and population groups.

The 2010 mail return rate in Tract 2, covering Bethel City (highlighted in red above), was barely 63%, making this one of the hardest to count tracts in the country based on the 2010 mail response metric. The Census Bureau also has assigned a "low response score" for Tract 2 that predicts that fewer than 70% of the tract's households will self-respond this year. Several organizations are working under the banner of Alaska Counts to overcome these challenges and ensure that Alaska's residents are counted fairly and accurately in 2020.

HTC 2020 Map Updated with New ACS Population Estimates

The HTC map now includes population estimates from the latest release of the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) for the 2014-2018 period. This data is used at the map to show the number of people and households, the populations at risk of being undercounted, and the share of households with no home internet access by tract, county, state, congressional district, and state legislative district.

In order to update the map with the 2014-2018 ACS estimates, we relied on the Census Bureau's new data dissemination platform at data.census.gov. When you click on the map or search for a tract (or county, etc) and access the blue "Census Details" drop-down menu (see screenshot at right), the ACS estimates are displayed with a brief explanation of why they are important, and the data source is identified with a link that opens a new window with the detailed data from data.census.gov for the particular geographic area you're viewing on the map.

Shortly we will make the 2014-2018 ACS data available via our downloadable Excel files from the map.

Getting Ready for 2020

Be on the lookout soon for new features and data that we'll be adding to the HTC 2020 map. These include:

Real-time 2020 self-response data. Starting March 20, 2020 the Census Bureau will be publishing daily self-response rates (the share of households that have filled out the census questionnaire online, by phone, or via mail) for several levels of geography (from tracts to nationwide). We will map that information so census stakeholders can evaluate and redeploy their GOTC efforts in real-time (and so they'll know where census enumerators will be going door-to-door when the "non-response follow-up" operation begins). The Funders Census Initiative (FCI) sponsored a webinar in September 2019 with more information about the 2020 self-response rates. Look for an updated webinar about the 2020 self-response rates in February (scroll down to the Feb. 12 entry at FCI's website).

Starting March 20, 2020 the Census Bureau will be publishing daily self-response rates (the share of households that have filled out the census questionnaire online, by phone, or via mail) for several levels of geography (from tracts to nationwide). We will map that information so census stakeholders can evaluate and redeploy their GOTC efforts in real-time (and so they'll know where census enumerators will be going door-to-door when the "non-response follow-up" operation begins). The Funders Census Initiative (FCI) sponsored a webinar in September 2019 with more information about the 2020 self-response rates. Look for an updated webinar about the 2020 self-response rates in February (scroll down to the Feb. 12 entry at FCI's website). Analysis of the real-time self-response rates. Working closely with census experts, we will examine the trends in self-response rates throughout spring 2020 and provide that information to census stakeholders, funders, the media, and other interested parties. While the mapped rates will focus on local geographic patterns, our ongoing analyses will provide a broader understanding of the 2020 self-response operation.

The HTC 2020 map in action

Census stakeholders continue to put the HTC 2020 map to good use. Below are some recent examples, along with media reports highlighting the map:

Links to earlier updates

The HTC 2020 map is a work in progress. Other recent updates and enhancements are described here:

December 2019 : New advanced tract search feature, statewide maps of Census Bureau contact strategies, and more.

New advanced tract search feature, statewide maps of Census Bureau contact strategies, and more. November 2019: Comprehensive information for all 2020 Census contact techniques combined in one place at the HTC 2020 map, so census stakeholders can more easily inform local residents about what to expect when the 2020 decennial census takes place. Also see the CUNY Center for Urban Research website for a state-by-state analysis.

October 2019: Updates to TEA designations; the latest examples of groups using the HTC map across the country; enhancing the HTC metrics with the Census Bureau's "low response score", the Urban Institute's projections of undercount by state; & more.

August 2019: In-Field Address Canvassing areas & stats on the map; organizations that are using the HTC map for local grant assistance; new examples of linking to and/or embedding the HTC map.

July 2019: new feature to highlight tracts based on share of households without internet access; a list of other census maps nationwide, and more.

June 2019: Census contacts by state/county; census tract search feature.

April 2019: customized printing, data downloads, and more.

March 2019: mapping Type of Enumeration Areas (TEA) and Area Census Offices (ACOs)

January 2019: new ACS data for the 2013-17 period (including internet access), new legislative info, public library locations, and tribal lands added to the map.

If you haven't signed up for our HTC 2020 map updates, please do so here.

We look forward to hearing your suggestions for improving the map. Please contact the Mapping Service at the CUNY Graduate Center with your feedback.

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