"Having re-signed James Johnson and Dion Waiters, the Heat return the bulk of the team that went 30-11 in the second half of last season. However, continuing to play at that level isn't realistic. Miami shot 39.0 percent from 3-point range over the final 41 games, and my SCHOENE projection system has that dropping to 34.4 percent this season. Additionally, Heat opponents made just 32.9 percent of their 3s in the final 22 games, which will likely regress to the mean."