ONE of Europe’s top experts on constitutional law has said that Catalonia’s problem at the moment is that both its own government and that of Spain are “weak” and have failed to properly discuss the issues around separation.

Professor Michael Keating of Aberdeen University, who is also director of the Centre on Constitutional Change, compared Catalonia to Scotland.

He said: “Within the European Union, there are precisely two independence seeking movements of any significance, in Catalonia and in Scotland. In both cases, support for independence is around 40-45 per cent. Both are governed by nationalist parties, which have sought to test support in independence referendums.

“In both cases, the independence movement has used membership of the European Union as something that would facilitate independence, although European institutions have given them no encouragement.

“At present, however, it is the difference between the two cases that most strikes the observer. Scotland’s referendum in 2014 was facilitated by the British Government, which decided that this was the best way to defuse a politically explosive situation. It helped that the United Kingdom has a very flexible constitution so that there was no legal obstacle.

“The key factor, however, was political. The UK has long been recognised as a voluntary union of nations and successive governments in recent years have recognised that they cannot be kept in the union against their will. This contrasts sharply with their attitude to Ireland and a hundred years ago.

“The Scottish referendum was won by the anti-independence forces, who gained 55 per cent of the vote. While the nationalists were defeated, however, they had demonstrated that they are a considerable force in Scottish society. Neither side had scored a knock-out victory.

“So, after the referendum, the two sides engaged in a negotiation to produce a compromise of further autonomy for Scotland.

“Since the referendum of 2014, we have had the referendum on Brexit. While the UK as a whole voted to leave the European Union, Scotland voted, by a larger margin, to remain. The Scottish Government has argued that this justifies another independence referendum but it has recognised that permission for this will have to be obtained from the UK Parliament. There will be no legally dubious referendum and no unilateral declaration of independence.

“The contrast with Spain is striking. The Spanish constitution insists on the indivisibility of the Spanish people, a provision that has been interpreted very narrowly by Spanish political parties and the constitutional court.

“A reformed statute of autonomy was adopted in 2006 with the agreement of both Spanish and Catalan parliaments and a referendum in Catalonia. It was taken to the constitutional court by intransigent Spanish nationalists and key provisions were stuck down. From that point, support for independence grew.”

Prof Keating added: “Catalonia has gone into a confrontation that could have been avoided some years ago with a bit of statesmanship. With some recognition of Catalonia’s national status, stronger guarantees for its competences and language and a deal on taxation and spending, the great majority of Catalans would have been content to remain in Spain and Spain itself would have been strengthened. Instead, there has been a series of miscalculations on both sides and a failure to think through the consequences of their actions.

“The search for compromise has been hindered by the fact that both the Spanish and the Catalan governments are weak. Neither has a parliamentary majority and both are beholden to their own hard-line nationalists. The Spanish Popular Party and the Catalan PDeCAT (formerly Convergencia) have been deeply tainted by corruption scandals.”

He added: “What is happening in Europe is less an outbreak of separatism than a questioning of the model of the unitary nation state.

“The government, the economy, societies and identities are re-scaling at multiple levels. Sovereignty is, whatever the Spanish constitution proclaims, shared at multiple levels.

“Self-determination is about negotiating one’s place in the new multilevel order. It is this, rather than the search for an illusory sovereignty, that the processes across Europe have in common.

“Catalonia and Scotland are test beds for this new understanding of politics and policy.”