Sen. Rubio, left, listens as Rep. Murphy speaks during a debate. | AP Photo/John Raoux Quinnipiac poll: Senate race tightens, too close to call between Rubio, Murphy Rubio leading Murphy by 2 points, within error margin

The Senate race between incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy is tightening and too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released Tuesday that shows the Miami lawmaker with a two-point lead over the Jupiter congressman.

The poll shows Murphy has cut Rubio’s lead in half since Oct. 5 when Rubio was beating Murphy, 48-44 percent. Tuesday’s numbers reveal Rubio just ahead of Murphy, 49-47 percent.


"With Donald Trump's numbers slipping, and control of the U.S. Senate very much in play, a bevy of GOP Senate candidates find themselves in very tight races," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, which surveyed likely voters in the swing states of Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

"For the most part, these Republican Senate candidates, including Marco Rubio in Florida and Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, will need to run ahead of the party's presidential ticket in order to get re-elected," Brown added.

In analyzing the poll data in Florida, Brown found that independent voters could be key in winning Florida’s Senate race. The poll shows Murphy edging Rubio among this bloc of voters, 47-46 percent.

Rubio and Murphy are each performing strongly with their base of party voters. Republican voters are backing Rubio, 88-11 percent, while Democratic voters are rallying behind Murphy, 86-11 percent.

The poll found wide gender and racial gaps between the two candidates. Women support Murphy 51-42 percent, while men support Rubio 57-41 percent. Also, white voters go Republican 56-38 percent, with non-white voters preferring a Democrat, 63-33 percent.

“Sen. Marco Rubio's upper hand in a too-close-to-call race is at least partially due to his scoring better than most GOP candidates among non-white voters,” said Brown, who noted Rubio’s Cuban-American heritage is helping him win minority voters.

A Rubio victory in the Senate race “will be a lesson for the GOP going forward,” Brown said.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 660 likely voters in Florida. The poll's margin of error: 3.8 percentage points.