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“The older you are the more likely you are to vote for her,” he said.

The Forum poll also indicates Ms. Clark is more popular among men than women. This is opposite from the usual case where female politicians do better with women, said Mr. Bozinoff.

Although the poll looks favourable for Ms. Clark, Mr. Bozinoff warns there are risks to “parachuting in” a candidate.

“There’s a potential when someone is parachuted in [who] doesn’t live in the riding, has no connection to it, for there to be a backlash,” he said.

Ms. Clark lives in Vancouver but has said she will get a secondary residence in the riding.

Mr. Bozinoff went on to say backlash “is not going to happen” in this byelection. He said the polls indicate there is little negative reaction to Ms. Clark running, and that residents will value having access to a Premier.

Mr. Bozinoff added that often in provincial elections, residents tend to vote for the party they support, not for the individual candidate.

“The actual member seldom makes a difference in ridings,” he said.

The actual member seldom makes a difference in ridings

Mr. Bozinoff said it will be interesting to see what percentage of votes Ms. Clark receives compared to that of the incumbent. This is what she’ll be measured against, he said.

The poll also determined what support other parties might receive. It indicates that the NDP candidate from last election’s would receive 30% of the vote while the Conservative candidate would take less than 10%. The Greens will not run a candidate in this election.

The date for the byelection has not yet been set but Ms. Clark is expected to call it this week. Voters would then go to the polls mid-July.

Ms. Clark’s Liberals stunned pollsters during the recent provincial election. Almost every poll and pundit in B.C. had predicted a Liberal defeat.

The results of this poll based on the total sample are considered accurate within 5%, 19 times out of 20. The poll was conducted on June 6.