GALWAY West Independent TD Noel Grealish – whose comments about immigrants caused huge controversy – is in danger of losing his Dáil seat a new opinion poll suggests.

The survey for TG4 television also signals prospects of huge changes in the five-seat constituency which mainly comprises Galway city and Connemara. Findings suggest the Social Democrats and the Green Party could win seats causing a huge upset.

The polling by Ipsos-MRBI also suggests big danger for left-leaning Independent TD Catherine Connolly, while government chief whip and gaeltacht minister, Seán Kyne is also in a fight to hold on.

Mr Kyne’s Fine Gael colleague, the Galway city-based, Hildegarde Naughton, is tipped to head the poll while Fianna Fáil’s stalwart, Eamon Ó Cúiv, looks like hanging in, albeit with a lower vote share than in 2016.

However, the survey organisers for TG4’s “Vóta 2020” series of programmes, also point out that five-seat Galway West always throws up long and grim counts. In February 2016 it took until count 9 for Eamon Ó Cúiv to be declared the first elected TD, and it then took until count 13 for Noel Grealish to become the second elected TD.

A total of 13 candidates are standing for election in the five-seater on February 8. And on the basis of the figures all five outgoing TDs, and five other contenders are rated as having some fighting chance of election.

Noel Grealish’s supporters will be disappointed to see him placed eighth on just 7pc. Last autumn he was involved in controversy over a refugee centre in Oughterard and over comments about Nigerians immigrants sending money home.

Catherine Connolly, the Claddagh-based former barrister and psychologist with links to Irish-speaking Connemara, is put on 9pc. But Niall Ó Tuathail of the Social Democrats is on 12 pc while the Green Party candidate, Pauline O’Reilly is on 10pc.

Transfers from a number of left-leaning candidates, put on a combined 17pc share, may decide things here. Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell is on 7pc; Niall McNeils of Labour is on 5pc; Independent Mike Cubbard is on 3pc; while Solidarity People Before Profit’s Joe Loughnane is on 2pc.

Fine Gael’s and Fianna Fáil’s respective combined totals suggest a second seat in one or other case cannot be ruled out. For Fine Gael, Hildegarde Naughton is on 13pc and Seán Kyne is on 10pc. Fianna Fáil’s Eamon Ó Cúiv is on 12pc while his running mate, city-based newcomer, Olly Crowe is on 8pc.

For the survey, a total of 525 adults were questioned between last Friday and Sunday and the margin of error is estimated at plus or minus 4pc. Even many of the lower placed candidates will estimate they can still make a fight of things in the time left.

Online Editors