Strange but true. The "Hindutva vote bank" in Maharashtra has split ever since the BJP tried to create a "Modi vote bank" with the help of rebels in the Congress, Shiv Sena and the NCP.

The Hindutva vote bank first emerged in 1989, when the Shiv Sena and the BJP came together and fought the Lok Sabha elections in alliance and later the Assembly polls. At that time, the Shiv Sena led by the late Bal Thackarey was a major partner and the BJP a "pillion rider".

Bal Thackarey and the late Pramod Mahajan of the BJP were the architects of this vote bank which had virtually posed a threat to the might of the Congress, which was ruling the state from gram panchayat to the Assembly for over three decades .

The Sena-BJP’s Hindutva vote bank which attracted OBCs, middle class and youth, remained intact till the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, it came undone in the Maharashtra Assembly polls held after a few months when the BJP had refused to be a junior ally of the Sena insisting the later should consider it as an "equal" partner in the seat allocation exercise between the two.

Seeking to broaden the influence of the BJP in the Assembly polls, the late BJP leader Gopinath Munde expanded the alliance by bringing the Swabhimani Paksha led by Raju Shetti, the Rashtraiya Samaj Paksha of Mahadev Jankar, the Republican Party of India (RPI) faction led by Ramdas Athavale and Vinayak Mete’s Shiv Sangram Party, in it. Interestingly, these parties remained with the BJP even after the Shiv Sena’s departure.

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Now, the BJP is neither relying on Hindutva nor the rainbow alliance of smaller parties, to come to power after realising that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personality and Amit Shah’s tactics would help capture the state on its own.

While the "all-powerful" Maratha community is looking for a new national party after realising that the Congress cannot protect their interest for long, the other communities (barring Muslims) and non-Maharashtrians in Mumbai and urban areas in the state, are feeling comfortable with the BJP in the Modi-Shah regime.

The BJP’s strategy to promote the rebels in the Congress and the NCP is clearly visible in Marathawada, Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra.

Maharashtra minister Sambhaji Patil Nilangekar, the grandson of former chief minister Shivajirao Patil Nilangekar, has emerged as a strong BJP leader in the Marathawada region while Nana Patole who defeated the NCP stalwart Praful Patel in the Lok Sabha election (from Bhandara-Gondia seat in Vidarbha) on the Lotus symbol, was recruited in the saffron party from the Congress ahead of the polls.

On the other hand, Sanjaykaka Patil defeated former union minister Pratik Patil, the grandson of veteran Congress leader the late Vadantdada Patil, from Sangli, was an outsider in the BJP, till the General Elections. And now, former Shiv Sena strongman Narayan Rane, who quit the Congress a few days back, is eagerly waiting for his admission into the BJP. He is said to have assured the BJP leadership to split the Congress and the Shiv Sena, if he and his two sons were accommodated honourably.

Maharashtra has been ruled by coalition governments since 1995 without a break. It was led by the Shiv Sena’s Manohar Joshi in which the BJP was a junior ally. But the Shiv Sena-BJP combine lacked the numbers for a majority in the Assembly, which they managed with the help of the large number of Congress rebels. Later, Narayan Rane, Vilasrao Deshmukh, Sushilkumar Shinde, Ashok Chavan and Prathivraj Chavan led coalition governments.

Currently, Devendra Fadnavis is heading a coalition government which is divided between the BJP and the Shiv Sena from day one. The BJP’s growth in the past three years has not made it a pan-Maharashtra party for the simple reason that it is seen as anti-Maharashtra due to its support for a Vidarbha state demand.

A split in the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance ahead of the General Elections could lead to a political realignment in this premier state. This will compel the Congress and the NCP to come together as they are having common vote bank. The Shiv Sena and the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena too will be forced to work on a common strategy after making Modi, Shah and the BJP their main opponent.

The RPI factions, BRP led by Prakash Ambedkar, PWP and the Left will have to decide how they will remain relevant politically.

A churning is on in the politics of the state and with the Lok Sabha polls scheduled in less than 20 months and the Assembly polls in two years, there are interesting times ahead.

Also read: Why Shiv Sena is wary of BJP over the issue of mid-term polls in Maharashtra