By Tom Worville (@worville)

Here we go again, another season of MLS and another season preview of the Chicago Fire and how things “might change” and how this “could be their year”. Usually these statements are made in reference to them reaching the playoffs, but I’m just hoping this year they aren’t left at the foot of the table come October.

To put it bluntly, the Chicago Fire were terrible in 2015. The last game of the season summed up their entire year. Lackluster defending, toothless attacking and, ultimately, a defeat to the New York Red Bulls meant they finished the year with just 30 points: less than one point per game and the worst total in the whole league.

Looking at the overall league table, the Fire had the joint leakiest defense in the league with NYCFC, conceding 58 goals (a massive 1.7 per90) but a decent attack, scoring 43 goals (1.27 p90). The sheer number of goals conceded meant that they had the worst goal difference in the league (-15) something that the team will no doubt be looking to rectify this year.

Furthermore, looking at expected goals (xG) paints a different picture. Their total of 1.29 xG per 90 is the fifth highest in the league according to American Soccer Analysis’ very own Expected Goal model. Equally, 1.32 xG against per 90 sits as the fifth highest also - giving an xGD per 90 of -0.03 overall. Compared to the actual goal difference per 90 of -0.29, there seems to be a some unluckiness in Chicago’s performances.

The reason for this unluckiness (or underperformance) could be due to a number of factors: low player quality, factors not included in expected goals like defender positioning or random variance could all be to blame for Chicago’s underperformance last season.

Looking at the Elo rating system (click here for more information) I created for MLS, the Fire sit last in the league, with them having the only Elo under 1900 in the league. from the chart below, their stock couldn’t be lower.