WIRED

Speculation on what might befall the UK in a no-deal Brexit scenario has been rife, but the release of the government’s Operation Yellowhammer paper on Wednesday confirmed some sneaking suspicions – and ignored others entirely.

Parts of the paper were leaked in August but the whole document (minus a redacted section) was released due to pressure on the government by MPs as part of a “humble address” motion on Wednesday this week.


The five-page document outlines the government’s “worst case planning assumptions” under Operation Yellowhammer, the code for a no-deal outcome. It includes shortages of some types of fresh food, soaring energy prices, disruption to medical supply chains, and widespread public disorder and protests. But there are a few areas that are conspicuously absent – or brushed over with a single line.

(The redacted section reportedly concerned the closure of oil refineries, subsequent disruptions to fuel supply, and the loss of thousands of jobs.)

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Security

The biggest security issue in a post no-deal Brexit world is the immediate loss of access to European criminal databases. The document deals with the issue in a single line: “Law enforcement data and information sharing between the UK and EU will be disrupted”. However, this masks the scale of the problem: that the UK won’t be able to check whether people entering the country have a criminal record in the EU.

In this event, the UK would have to fall back on an Interpol system, but not all member states upload “red notices” on wanted suspects, and that system doesn’t give the British police immediate powers of arrest, meaning they wouldn’t be able to arrest international criminals on sight. Deputy assistant commissioner Richard Martin, the national police lead for Brexit, told The Independent that police leaders had been in discussions with the Home Office about introducing a power of arrest for Interpol red notices from EU member states, but that new legislation would likely not be in place by October 31.


Trains to Europe

Delays are predicted at popular transit points for passengers, as immigration checks are ramped up, for example at St. Pancras, Dover, and at the entrance of the Channel Tunnel. However, these concerns may be somewhat understated. High-speed railway company Eurostar has previously said that it may not be able to run services at all in the case of a no-deal Brexit, given the limited space and resources to conduct immigration checks in St Pancras. “You've got only one line in there, which may well be a complete understatement of the impact [of no-deal Brexit],” says Henig.

Brits working abroad

Another issue to be scarcely mentioned in the document concerns British workers currently in Europe, or those planning to head over imminently for seasonal work. These people will face “enormous new barriers," says Henig. For businesses which currently operate by bringing tour guides or ski instructors from the UK into Europe, that business model “is almost certainly not viable” in a no-deal outcome, according to Henig. This is because of European controls on who can work there and who is able to be a ski instructor.

Although this is primarily in the EU’s hands, it doesn’t appear as if there is any effort going into preparing for this eventuality or negotiating agreeable arrangements. “Anybody travelling to the EU to do even a few days of work after the 1st November, does not know what paperwork they’ll need,” says Henig. There’s no telling how this may impact the real economy.

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Major dismissals

Some eventualities in the wake of a no-deal Brexit do not seem to have been given ample consideration, if the Yellowhammer document is anything to go by. For example, what would happen if a major company, such as a car manufacturer, decides to suspend or stop production is not addressed. The UK's car industry is already facing dire trouble because of Brexit.


A question of legality

When the UK entered the EU, the country adopted EU law. The government passed the EU Withdrawal Act in 2018, which effectively copies EU law into UK law after Brexit – but a no-deal Brexit would create a lot of legal grey areas overnight. In that eventuality, the government would need to pass a number of bills to manage the impact of no deal. Although it’s passed bills on healthcare, taxation and road haulage, many other bills remain to be passed including the Trade Bill, Agriculture Bill, Fisheries Bill, Immigration Bill and Financial Services Bil to prepare these areas for a post-EU state of affairs. Although these don’t need to be passed by October 31, they will be needed following a no deal.

British territories

Gibraltar is mentioned, but there are issues that may afflict other territories, such as the Falkland islands, which might not being able to sell lobsters or fish to the EU on the same conditions any longer. “If there is no deal the impact could be that we would have to pay tariffs: 6 per cent for squid and up to 18 per cent for other fish. That would be of significant consequence,” Stuart Wallace, a Falklands-based fisherman told The Guardian earlier this month.

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