December 4th, 2019

Tuesday is the day after Cyber Monday, also know as, âOne of the worst days of the year to release something on the home market.â Thereâs not a lot to talk about, while the biggest release of the week is also one of the biggest disappointments of the year, but the less said about that, the better. As for Pick of the Week contenders, we have Big Trouble in Little China: Collectorâs Edition and thatâs it. There are a few other releases that are close to that level, but none that reach it. More...



January 20th, 2018

As expected, 12 Strong opened in first place on Friday. Technically it tied for first place according to the estimates. It did do a little bit better than expected, earning $5.66 million, which puts it on pace for about $15 million over the weekend. Its reviews got a little bit better since Thursday and are now 56% positive, while it is earning an A from CinemaScore. Clearly this movie is connecting with its target audience. This is great news for Warner Bros., as they only spent $35 million making the movie and likely a little under that advertising it. Strong legs would be a good omen for strong home market sales. On the other hand, I donât think its going to find an audience internationally. More...



November 23rd, 2017

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesnât mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this yearâs list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone. More...



October 23rd, 2017

It was a terrible summer at the box office, but Spider-Man: Homecoming was one of the few bright spots. It was one of three films to cross $300 million domestically and has a slim shot at finishing in the top five for the year. Does it deserve this success? Or did it thrive just because itâs part of the MCU? More...



October 18th, 2017

It is one of those weeks. Thereâs a massive release coming out, which has scared away nearly all of the competition, so it is a really shallow week. Fortunately, that huge release is Spider-Man: Homecoming, which is not only one of the biggest hits of the year, it is also one of the reviewed. It isnât the only contender for Pick of the Week, but the Blu-ray Combo Pack wins that honor. More...



July 30th, 2017

A solid second weekend will be enough to keep Dunkirk at the top of the box office chart this weekend, as The Emoji Movie falls short of a par performance for a family-friendly animated film. Christopher Nolanâs war movie will fall 44% from it openingâa decent figure these daysâto earn $28.1 million this time around, according to Warner Bros.â projection released on Sunday morning. That will take it past $100 million domestically today, puts it on course for around $200 million domestically in total. More...



July 23rd, 2017

Dunkirk will easily top the chart at the box office this weekend, with a $50.5 million opening weekend from 3,720 theaters thatâs broadly in line with expectations, and also remarkably similar to the first weekend for Interstellar, which opened with $47.5 million from 3,561 theaters back in 2014. It seems that the film has reached the Christopher Nolan fan base, but not extended much beyond that. Remarkably, Pearl Harbor remains the record holder for biggest opening weekend for a World War II movie, with the $59 million it earned back in 2001 (equivalent to roughly $93 million with todayâs ticket prices). More...



July 18th, 2017

The weekend box office chart didnât hold a lot of surprises. War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place with a slightly better than predicted result of $56.26 million, while most of the rest of our predictions were also close enough to be considered victories. Overall, the box office plummeted 21% from last weekend reaching $163 million. This was also a little lower than the same weekend last year. The emphasis is on âlittleâ, as it only dropped by 0.062% or about $100,000. On its own, this would be nothing to worry about. However, 2017âs lead over 2016 has completely evaporated and the year is now 0.19% or $12 million behind last yearâs pace at $6.21 billion to $6.22 billion. Weâve lost about $200 million this summer compared to last year and I donât see that turning around any time soon. More...



July 16th, 2017

A weekend estimate just ahead of our prediction for War for the Planet of the Apes, and a one just below our prediction for Spider-Man: Homecoming means thereâs a clear winner at the box office. War will come in with $56.5 million, per Foxâs Sunday morning estimate, while Homecoming will finish second with $45.2 million. More...



July 11th, 2017

The weekend box office chart held few surprises. Every film in the top five was close to our predictions, while the top two films were a little stronger. This includes Spider-Man: Homecoming, which pulled in $117.03 million during its opening weekend, making it the second fastest debut of the summer. (Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is ahead of it in that regard.) Despicable Me 3 held on better than most films this summer and will become a monster hit thanks to its international numbers. Overall, the box office rose by 22% from last weekend hitting $206 million. Unfortunately, this is still 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Before the summer began, 2017 had a $200 million lead over 2006. That lead is now down to just $13 million at $5.95 billion to $5.94 billion. This lead could be completely gone by the weekend. More...



July 9th, 2017

A $117 million opening weekend is pretty much all Sony could ask for from Spider-Man: Homecoming. Itâs the second-best debut for the Spider-Man franchise, if you ignore the effects of inflation, and makes it almost certain that the franchise will break its unfortunate streak of earning less at the domestic box office with every new outing. With, reportedly, a more constrained budgetâthis is the least expensive Spider-Man film, adjusted for inflationâprofitability looks assured, and Sonyâs partnership with Disney looks as though itâs paying off. More...



July 8th, 2017

Spider-Man: Homecoming dominated the box office on Friday and in a pleasant surprise, it beat predictions with $50.5 million during its opening day. Its opening day vs. its previews is almost identical to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which would put the film on pace for $130 million over the weekend. Spider-Man: Homecoming did earn better reviews, while both movies earned a solid A from CinemaScore, and many more kids have no school on Monday compared to when Guardians debuted. All of this should help its legs. On the other hand, Homecoming could have a bigger Fanboy Effect, as Spider-Man is a much more established character. Because of that, Iâm going to be a little more cautious and predict a $125 million opening weekend. This is still simply fantastic and the only downside is Sony and Disney have to work together to make this work in the long term. This is Sonyâs second best domestic opening of all time. (Spider-Man 3 is the only one that beats it.) It could open with more than last yearâs number one domestic hit for the studio, Ghostbusters, earned in total. Sony has a lot of reasons to work with Disney to keep Spider-Man in the MCU. More...



July 7th, 2017

Spider-Man: Homecoming needed to make more than Wonder Woman during its previews in order to match it at the box office. Wonder Womanâs audience was disproportionately female, especially more mature women. This demographic tends to help a filmâs legs at the expense of its opening weekend. So if Homecoming only made a little more than the $11.0 million Wonder Woman made, it would fail to crack $100 million over the weekend. Fortunately, it crushed that figure with $15.4 million on Thursday night. This is the third-best figure for previews this year, behind only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is the better comparison, as the audiences for the two films match up nearly perfectly. If Homecoming does match Guardiansâ legs, then it will earn just over $130 million over the weekend. I think the fact that this is the sixth Spider-Man movie and third incarnation of the character in 15 years will hurt its legs a little bit, but $125 million is the new goal to aim for. The only downside here is behind-the-scenes, as the character is being shared by Sony and Disney and Iâm not sure how long they can work together. More...



July 6th, 2017

Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3âs box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year wonât be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely. More...



June 12th, 2017

Itâs a good week, but a shallow weak. The biggest release of the week is The Lego Batman Movie, which is also one of the best. There are a couple of other big releases that are must haves, like Dark Matter: Season Two, but the size and quality quickly drop-off after that. As for the Pick of the Week, the John Wick: Chapter Two Blu-ray Combo Pack claims that title. More...



November 26th, 2014

This Thursday is Thanksgiving, which means this is Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. In some ways, this is better than last year, as there were a wider number of big releases that would make great gifts. However, in other ways it is much weaker. I can't think of a single big franchise box set that came out this year. There are some smaller ones, like the Halloween Box Set, but while the franchise has lasted ten installments and 30 years, how many can you really say are worth repeated viewing? Fortunately, there were plenty of great films to come out this year, starting with what is currently the biggest hit of the year. More...



May 20th, 2014

I thought Godzilla would be a monster hit. I mentioned that possibility in the monthly preview and the weekend predictions. However, I was in the minority and I reduced my expectations. That turns out to be a mistake. Godzilla opened with $93.19 million over the weekend, which is a better opening than The Amazing Spider-Man 2 managed, but it wasn't quite up to Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It also helped the overall box office soar to $178 million, which is 30% more than last weekend. More importantly, it was 16% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 is now ahead of 2013 by a margin of $185 million or 5.3% at $3.66 billion to $3.48 billion. More...



May 13th, 2014

Neighbors got off to a much faster start than expected, as did many of the top five films. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 fell more than 60% during its sophomore stint, but that was expected, at least it was inline with my expectations. Overall, the box office still fell from last weekend, but by 11% to $137 million, which isn't as bad as it could have been. It was down 14% from the same weekend last year, but that's a huge improvement from what it was last weekend, so in a small way, it is a bit of a victory. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $3.45 billion, putting it 5.4% ahead of 2013's pace. That's down from its peak, but even if 2014 loses next weekend and the weekend after that, 2014 should still remain ahead of last year's pace. More...



May 8th, 2014

It could be an interesting weekend at the box office as The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is expected to fall far enough that Neighbors could win the box office race. That certainly would be a boost for the new release's box office chances. Earning first place does provide a lot of free publicity. The other two wide releases coming out this week are not expected to be major players at the box office. I've heard some buzz that Mom's Night Out could be a sleeper hit. On the other hand, Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return might not open above the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Iron Man 3 led the way with $72.53 million, which is more than all three wide releases will make. In fact, last year's second place film, The Great Gatsby earning $50.09 million, which might be more than all three wide releases make this weekend. On the other hand, depth will be better this time around and that should mitigate the situation a little bit. More...



May 6th, 2014

The summer blockbuster season has begun and it started on a mixed note. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 easily earned first place with more than $90 million. An opening of more than $90 million isn't a bad number, but it is the lowest opening three-day weekend for a Friday debut in the franchise. Worse still, the overall box office was just $153 million, which is substantially lower than last year's number one film, Iron Man 3, opened with. $153 million is 32% higher than last weekend, but the start of summer should be bigger than that. It is also 30% lower than the same weekend last year. You usually only see a decline that sharp when there's a misalignment in a holiday weekend. Granted, 2014 is still ahead of 2013 by a large margin (8.6% or $3.26 billion to $3.01 billion) so we don't have to worry about 2014 losing that lead any time soon. This is just not a great way to start the summer blockbuster season. More...



May 4th, 2014

The modern tradition is that first weekend in May starts the Summer season with a super-hero action movie. And Hollywood being the industry that lets no tradition go before it's beaten it to death, this year we start Summer, on the first weekend in May, with the release of The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Now, the most amazing fact about the Spider-Man franchise is probably that every movie has done worse at the domestic box office than the one before it, even without adjusting for inflation. This is another tradition that looks like it might continue, with Spider-Man 2 opening with $92 millionâwithout doubt a very good debut, but one that points towards a final box office around $250 million, or perhaps a shade higher. With The Amazing Spider-Man having made $262 million in 2012, a fourth straight decline for the franchise looks like a 50-50 bet right now. More...



May 2nd, 2014

It is the official opening of the summer blockbuster season and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 hopes to get the summer off to a fast start. On the positive side, it is the latest installment in one of the most popular comic book franchises. On the negative side, its reviews are below expectations and below the overall positive level. There are no other new releases to pick up the slack should this film fail to live up to lofty expectations at the box office, although The Other Woman should still do well in a counter-programming role. Last year Iron Man 3 dominated the way with $174.14 million during the opening weekend. There's no way The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will match that this weekend. There is a small chance The Amazing Spider-Man 2 won't make that in total. More...



May 1st, 2014

It has been a great year so far and April was again a strong month. The box office was led by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as it became the second film of the year to reach $200 million, while Rio 2 is on pace to become the seventh $100 million hit of the year. Big picture, 2014 has already hit $3 billion, which isn't a record for this time of the year, but it is $250 million ahead of 2013. That streak ends in May. Don't get me wrong. There are six films opening this month that at least have a shot at $100 million and two of those should earn more than $200 million and there are two others that at least have a shot at that milestone. Leading the way is The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which is looking to top The Winter Soldier and become the second biggest hit of the year so far. Its main competition this month is X-men: Days of Future Past, while Godzilla also has a shot at $200 million. Unfortunately, this month last year, Iron Man 3 earned more than $400 million, while two other films took in $200 million and seven films in total reached the century mark. That is going to be really hard to replicate this year and 2014 will likely lose some of its lead over 2013. Fortunately, 2014 has such a big lead that unless the box office really slumps, it will end the month with at least a small lead over 2013. More...



April 22nd, 2014

According to Amazon, the top three best selling new releases of the week are a play, a film considered one of the biggest box office bombs of all time, and a yoga exercise DVD. Most weeks, these would be filler. This week, they are the top three releases. There's not a lot that jumps out as being worth picking up. Sorcerer's Blu-ray release will interest a lot of people, while the other two contenders for Pick of the Week are Bettie Page Reveals All on Blu-ray and Big Bad Wolves on Blu-ray. Like last week, it came down to a roll of the dice and Bettie Page Reveals All won. More...



November 23rd, 2012

This weekend is Thanksgiving and as always that means Black Friday and Cyber Monday plus 48 hours of shopping in-between. Unlike most years, I'm only halfway done with my Christmas shopping. So what recent, and not so recent releases are prime candidates for the perfect gift this year? Over the next month, we will go over several dozen possibilities with our annual Holiday Gift Guide, which is divided into into four sections. This week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, before we get into the individual titles, we will start with an update on... More...

