Trump's N Korea dilemma: The five options for dealing with missile threat

Trump's N Korea dilemma: The five options for dealing with missile threat

President Trump once mooted a meeting with Kim Jong Un - but that now appears unlikely

It "won't happen", he tweeted.

It appears that Donald Trump's certainty that North Korea would not test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the US was wrong.

The threat has been brought to the US homeland - the stakes have been raised beyond any level during his short presidency.

Trump's heated rhetoric on the regime has been all over the place.

One minute he's saying he'd be "honoured" to meet North Korea's leader, then a "major, major conflict" is possible in the stand-off over Kim's nuclear ambitions.


The underlying message when it comes to North Korea under the Trump administration: nothing is off the table.

Image: The US has developed the THAAD missile system to shoot down ICBMs in flight

Trump wants what leaders before him failed to achieve - an end to North Korea's nuclear ambitions. And that quest has just become even more urgent.

But realistically - what are his options?

:: US seeks urgent UN talks on North Korea missile launch

:: Option one - China

Trump's latest tweets ponders whether there will be a "heavy move" on North Korea by China.

Image: President Trump and China's president, Xi Jinping

He has long advocated a policy of pushing China to use its influence with its neighbour.

Beijing's reaction suggests it's considering no such move.

It seems more concerned about regional upheaval than nuclear and missile programmes.

The US appears to have lost faith in China's ability to change the situation. This latest test shows that North Korea is not threatened by China's reactions.

China has called for the US to stop its military exercises with South Korea in exchange for a halt in North Korea's missile tests.

The aim - to pave the way for negotiations to end the stand-off.

Russia has now joined that call, which is unlikely to go down well with the Trump administration.

Collectively there's a sense from Russia and China that those military exercises have paved the way for the ICBM test.

:: Option two - Sanctions

Image: The United Nations Security Council may be asked to impose further sanctions

The United Nations has already imposed several rounds of sanctions on Pyongyang, but China is regarded as being able to deliver the most stinging economic blow.

It has been accused of not using that leverage to full effect.

Just days ago, the US put sanctions on a Chinese bank accused of laundering North Korean money.

It was a move the Trump administration said was aimed at cutting funds to the regime's weapons programmes - not punishing China for a perceived lack of action.

China reacted angrily saying it could harm cooperation. The US may well consider further sanctions.

:: Option three - Military strike

Image: The US Navy vessels has been on manoeuvres with South Korean ships

Trump has insisted that military action is possible, but it's widely regarded as untenable because of the massive loss of life it could inflict if North Korea retaliates against South Korea.

US defence secretary James Mattis has said a conflict in North Korea "would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most people's lifetimes".

There are already 28,000 US troops stationed in South Korea.

More of a military presence in the region, including troops, aircraft and ships, could be an option.

If it is concluded that an ICBM has been fired, the US will almost certainly send military signals in response.

We can expect to hear that missile defence measures on Navy ships in the Pacific and land-based missiles in Alaska are braced and prepared, along with defence systems in South Korea and Japan.

:: Option four - Diplomacy

Image: George W Bush failed in his attempt at diplomacy with North Korea

Diplomatic engagement is the preferred option for new South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

The Trump administration has said it would even consider a meeting with North Korea's leader, which no other US president has done.

In the light of this recent test that seems even less feasible.

Negotiations have been attempted before, but with little yield.

Bill Clinton and George W Bush tried it but deals eventually fell apart.

The upcoming G20 summit means plenty of North Korea talk - with perhaps a race to determine who emerges as the driving force behind efforts to curtail the situation.

:: Option five - Learn to live with a nuclearised North Korea

There may eventually have to be an acceptance that nothing that can be done.

Learning to live with a nuclear, aggressive North Korea might have to become an option.

The development of an ICBM is certainly no great surprise considering the pace and development of Kim's nuclear trajectory.