Hailed by Michael Salfino (TheAthletic, FiveThirtyEight, and The Wall Street Journal) for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” The Prospect Digest Handbook has become a mainstay for baseball enthusiasts, minor league aficionados, and championship fantasy general managers. Pick up your print version here and your eBook version here!

______________________________________________________________________________

1. Hunter Greene, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 60

Background: Arguably the most highly touted prep prospect since Bryce Harper. Greene, a 6-foot-4, 215-pound right-hander, donned the cover of Sports Illustrated in April 2017, becoming just the 13th prep athlete to do so and the first since Chicago hoops star Jabari Parker accomplished the feat in 2012. A product of Notre Dame High School, Greene, who flirted with a potential two-way gig during his professional debut in the Pioneer League, hit the disabled list with elbow woes prior to the kickoff of the 2019 season. And he eventually succumbed to Tommy John surgery in early April. According to reports, Greene is scheduled to begin a throwing program in the middle of January. And his return to full-season action won’t – likely – happen until mid-year.

Scouting Report: The Cincinnati Reds made one of the most important acquisitions on the offseason market – a move that, potentially, changes the entire culture and pitching fortunes of the franchise. In early October the club announced that they hired Driveline Baseball founder Kyle Boddy, who will work primarily with the club’s minor league arms. I’m a massive believer in the Driveline’s ability to (A) improve pitching performance through training, throwing regimens, and analytics; and (B) help pitcher’s comeback from serious injuries. Royals long time top prospect, who was snake-bitten for years, returned to form with the help of Driveline. This is going to be a massive windfall for the organization. And will only improve the odds of all pitchers, not just Greene, to exceed expectations.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

______________________________________________________________________________

2. Nick Lodolo, LHP

FB SL CH Command Overall 60 55/60 55/60 55/60 60

Background: A projectable, lanky left-hander coming out of Damien High School, the Pirates snagged the 6-foot-6, 202-pound hurler in the opening round of the 2016 draft. Sandwiched between top prospect Joey Wentz and snake-bitten Phillies right-hander Kevin Gowdy, Pittsburgh took a calculated gamble on the California native, knowing that he’d be a tough sign. He didn’t. Three years later Lodolo positioned himself as one of the top arms amateur available in the 2019 draft class. The big lefty transitioned to the collegiate level with a surprising amount of ease: he made 17 appearances for the Horned Frogs, 15 of which were starts, as a true freshman, throwing 78.2 innings to go along with 72 strikeouts and just 28 free passes. Following his wildly successful campaign, Lodolo earned a bevy of awards including:

Freshman All-American (Collegiate Baseball)

Second-Team Freshman All-American (Baseball America)

Second-Team All-Big 12 Conference

Big 12 Academic All-Rookie Team

Big 12 All-Freshman Team

Lodolo’s production crept forward during his sophomore season for Head Coach Jim Schlossnagle: in 15 starts and one relief appearance, the big southpaw hurled 77.0 innings while fanning 93 and walking only 28. Last season Lodolo maintained his impressive ability to miss bats – he averaged 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings – while drastically improving his control; he walked a career best 2.2 per nine innings. Cincinnati snagged the young southpaw in the opening round, seventh overall, and set him loose on the low levels of the minor leagues. Lodolo made eight brief appearances between Billings and Dayton, throwing 18.1 innings with 30 strikeouts and he didn’t hand out a single free pass.

Scouting Report: Here’s what I wrote about the dominating lefty prior to the draft last June:

“Long, gangly limbs that allows his low 90s fastball to sneak up on hitters. Lodolo’s bread-and-butter offering is his wipeout slider, which is particularly lethal down-and-in to right-handed hitters. He also features an above-average changeup that might grow into a consistent plus-pitch. With respect to his production thus far in 2019, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2018, only three Big 12 pitchers met the following criteria: at least 10 strikeouts per nine innings and a sub-2.00 walk rate with at least 70 innings. Those three pitchers: Jon Gray, the third overall pick in 2016; Andrew Heaney, the ninth overall pick in 2012; and Chad Donato, a sleeper in the Houston Astros system that was taken in the 11th round in 2016.

One more thought:

Gray has been an above-average, sometimes dominant, starter in each of his first five big league seasons. And Heaney tallied near three wins above replacement (FanGraphs) in 2018.

Lodolo looks like a potential #2/#3-type arm at his peak.”

A few things to note: During his debut last season, Lodolo’s fastball ticked up a bit as it hit – consistently – 95 mph; his slider was 80- to 82 mph; and his changeup was filthy. There’s a nonzero chance he develops three plus pitches.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

______________________________________________________________________________

3. Jose Garcia, SS

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50 45/50 45 40+ 50 55

Background: Described by Cincinnati.com as “one of the Reds’ prized international free agents” when the club inked the Cuban star to a hefty $5 million deal during the summer of 2017. Garcia, who popped up briefly with the Industriales of the Cuban National Series as an 18-year-old, made his stateside debut with the Dayton Dragons two season ago; he batted a disappointing .245/.290/.344 with 22 doubles, four triples, and six homeruns with 13 stolen bases in 125 games. And despite some lackluster production, the front office pushed the young infielder up to High Class A. And Garcia, who stands 6-foot-2 and 175 pounds, raised his offensive game to new heights. In 104 games with the Daytona Tortugas, the La Habana native slugged .280/.343/.436 with 37 doubles, one triple, and eight homeruns while swiping 15 bags. Per Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 43%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only four 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the Florida State League (min. 350 PA): 140 to 150 DRC+, a sub-20% strikeout rate, and a single-digit walk rate. Those four hitters: Adam Lind, Josh Bell (the Pirates first baseman), Daryl Jones, and Jose Garcia. Sans Garcia, here are their respective big league career DRC+ totals: Lind: 110; Bell: 112; Jones: N/A

Last season Garcia looked like a completely different, and vastly improved, hitter. He was driving the ball more authoritatively, with far more consistency. His was more patient, though it’s still below average. And he improved his contact rate as well. And here’s the kicker: after a slow start to the year – he batted just .238/.307/.388 over his first 36 games – Garcia slugged an impressive .304/.363/.463 over his remaining 68 games. Throw in some solid defense, and he looks like a potential above-average MLB shortstop, perhaps even a burgeoning star.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

4. Jonathan India, 3B

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50 45/50 40 60 50 50

Background: With a pitching staff sporting a couple of bonafide collegiate aces like Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar, it was the University of Florida’s young third baseman that heard his name called first in the opening round of the 2018 draft. India, the fifth overall pick that year, was a solid, sometimes spectacular offensive performer across his freshman and sophomore seasons with the Gators: he batted a solid .303/.367/.440 with 22 extra-base knocks in 2016 and followed that up with a .274/.354/.429 showing a year later. But it was his work during his junior campaign that sent the young third baseman rocketing up everyone’s draft list. In a career best 68 games, the 6-foot, 200-pound infielder slugged a whopping .350/.497/.771 with 12 doubles, four triples, and 21 homeruns – more than double his entire career total up to that point. India made three brief stops during his pro debut as he hit a mediocre .240/.380/.433 with nine doubles, one triple, and six homeruns in 44 games. And despite only spending 27 games in Low Class A, the front office aggressively challenged the top prospect by sending him up to High Class A to start the 2019 season. India responded by batting .256/.346/.410 with 15 doubles, five triples, and eight homeruns in 87 games. He spent his final 34 contests in the Southern League, where he batted .270/.414/.378.

Scouting Report: It was a roller coaster ride of a season for India. There were months were he looked every bit the top prospect – like in May when he hit .274/.391/.453 or in August as he slugged .289/.418/.434. There were other extended periods of mediocrity such as April (.247/.323/.416) or June (.247/.323/.412). And there were certainly low parts as well (he hit .228/.360/.266 in July). So here’s what we know about the former Florida Gator: he plays with a definite saber-slant at the plate, walking in more than 12% of his career plate appearances; his power is fringy average at this point, despite very few groundballs; and he’s an average-ish third baseman. While India’s triple-slash lines in High Class A and Class AA don’t exactly scream dominant hitter, his overall production – as measured by Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus – topped the league average mark by 30% and 41%, respectively. And, of course, the overwhelming majority of his production is derived from his ability to sniff out first base. With respect to his work in High Class A last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old hitters to post a 125 to 135 DRC+ with a double-digit walk rate and a strikeout rate between 20% and 24% in the Florida State League (min. 300 PA): Jason Donald, Jhoan Urena, Stefan Welch and – of course – Jonathan India.

A year-plus into his professional career and it doesn’t look like India’s destined to be a star. Rather, he looks like a hitter with the offensive ceiling similar to Johan Camargo circa 2018 when he batted .272/.349/.457 with 19 homeruns.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

5. Michael Siani, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45/50 40/45 70 50 80 55

Background: Cincinnati went well above the recommended slot bonus to sign the former Philadelphia prep star. To be exact: the front office nearly quadrupled the recommended slot bonus when they handed him $2 million when they selected him in the fourth round, 109th overall, two years ago. A product of William Penn Charter School, Siani turned in a solid debut showing in the Appalachian League when he batted .288/.351/.386 with six doubles, three triples, a pair of homeruns, and half-a-dozen stolen bases. The front office pushed the then-19-year-old outfielder up to Dayton. And the results were…mediocre. In 121 games with the Dayton Dragons, the 6-foot-1, 188-pound table setter batted .253/.333/.339 with 10 doubles, six triples, and six homeruns. His overall production, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, was 4% below the league average threshold.

Scouting Report: So he wasn’t one of the bigger breakouts in 2019. In fact, he quite the opposite. Consider the following:

Since 2006, only five 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the Midwest League (min. 350 PA): a DRC+ total between 90 and 100; a strikeout rate between 18% and 22%; and a walk rate between 7% and 10%. Those five hitters: Josh Van Meter, Matt Tuiasosopo, Juniel Querecuto, Jack Suwinski, and – of course – Michael Siani.

So this is the basics of it: Michael Siani, who’s younger brother Sami was taken in the opening round by the Pirates last June, is – arguably – the best defensive player not yet at the big league level. He’s otherworldly, blessed with the talents of Willie Mays’ famous “where triples go to die” adage. He’s so damn good, in fact, that he could hit .220 and still carve out a starting gig in center field for a championship contending big league team. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average, he was a +24. Clay Davenport’s metrics show him even better, at +26. To put that into some contact: Harrison Bader, arguably the best defensive center fielder in MLB, posted a +14 FRAA and a +4 according to Davenport. Siani shows plus- to plus-plus speed, solid peripherals, and projects to be a 10/50 guy (homeruns/stolen bases).

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

______________________________________________________________________________

6. Tyler Stephenson, C

Background: The first backstop off the board in the 2015 draft, Stephenson, who was taken between Cornelius Randolph and Josh Naylor with the 11th overall pick, continues to be one of the most underrated catching prospects in the minor leagues. A product of Kennesaw Mountain High School in Kennesaw, Georgia, Stephenson continues to battle injuries over his young career – he’s only topped the 100-game threshold once in five years – but has maintained an above-average production line at the dish nonetheless. After batting .250/.338/.392 as a 21-year-old in High Class A, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound brick wall turned in – arguably – his finest professional season to date, at the minors’ most challenging level. In 89 games with the Chattanooga Lookouts, Stephenson slashed .285/.372/.410 with 19 doubles, one triple, and six homeruns. His overall production, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 28%. Cincinnati sent him to the Arizona Fall League. And he further cemented his status as a top catching prospect by batting .347/.418/.490 in 13 games with Glendale.

Scouting Report: First, the offense. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old hitters to post a 123 to 133 DRC+ total with a double-digit walk rate and a sub-20.0% strikeout rate in the Southern League (min. 350 PA): Russell Martin, Steve Moss, Josh Bell (the former Orioles and Dodgers prospect, not the current Pirates first baseman), and Tyler Stephenson.

Using FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement, there were just 11 catchers that eclipsed the 2.0-win threshold last season. Beyond the notable guys like Gary Sanchez, J.T. Realmuto, and Roberto Perez; such luminaries like James McCann, Tyler Flowers, and Robinson Chirinos accomplished the feat. So, the question is quite simple: Can Tyler Stephenson, who easily passed the Class AA test as a 22-year-old at the most challenging position, establish himself as a league average starting catcher? Injuries notwithstanding, it’s a resounding yes. Average offensive tools across the boards with a chance to see a bump in future power. Now the defense: it’s bad. Baseball Prospectus had him tallying -11.8 FRAA. And Clay Davenport was in the same neighborhood (-11). To put that into context, there were 36 catchers that received at least 250 PA last season. Only three approached Stephenson’s level of ineptitude: Welington Castillo, Elias Diaz, and Omar Narvaez.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

7. Tony Santillan, RHP

FB SL CH Command Overall 70 60 50 40+ 50

Background: Built out of the typical Texas-born power-pitching mold. Santillan, a hulking 6-foot-3, 240-pound native of Fort Worth, was added to the organization via the second round of the 2015 draft. And after years of subpar control/command trending in the right direction, the young fireballer put it all together during a breakout 2018 campaign. Splitting time between Daytona and Pensacola, Santillan tossed a career best 149.0 innings while racking up 134 strikeouts and handing out just 38 free passes to go along with a 3.08 ERA. That surge in production, placed firmly on the back of his newfound ability to throw strikes, made him a prime candidate for a 2019 call up heading into last season. Unfortunately, for the hefty righty he lost sight of the strike zone and a triceps injury curtailed his season after just 21 starts in the Southern League. In total, Santillan tossed 102.1 innings, averaging 8.1 strikeouts and 4.7 walks per nine innings. He compiled a 4.84 ERA and a 5.75 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Scouting Report: Along with his questionable – or, at least, wavering – feel for the strike zone, Santillan’s changeup continues to be a bit of a rough subject. However, with the addition to Driveline’s Kyle Boddy as well as the club’s new emphasis on pitcher/pitch development, I truly believe Santillan’s changeup bumps up half-of-a-grade in the next year or so. His fastball’s one of the better heaters among minor league starting pitchers. And his wipeout slider is still intact. He has the potential to become an above-average big league starting pitcher. And his work last season compares favorably to All-Star right-hander Chris Archer’s stint in the Southern League:

NAME LGE YEAR AGE IP DRA K% BB% Tony Santillan Southern 2019 22 102.3 5.75 19.78% 11.61% Chris Archer Southern 2011 22 134.3 5.74 19.28% 13.07%

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

8. Lyon Richardson, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 60 50/55 55 50/55 50/55 50

Background: After grabbing Florida Gator Jonathan India with the fifth overall selection two years ago, Cincinnati selected University of Florida commit Lyon Richardson 42 picks last in the second round. A well-built 6-foot-2, 195-pound righty, Richardson made 11 brief starts in the Appalachian League during his debut two years, throwing 29.0 innings with 24 strikeouts and 16 free passes to go along with an unsightly 7.14 ERA. Last season, despite the mediocre debut showing, the front office pushed the young fireballer up to Low Class A. And, well, Richardson offered up more than a few glimpses of dominance. In 26 starts with the Dayton Dragons, Richardson posted a 106-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112.2 innings. He finished the year with a 4.15 ERA and a 5.70 DRA.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 19-year-old pitchers to post a 20% to 22% strikeout percentage with a walk percentage between 5.5% and 7.5% in the Midwest League (min. 100 IP): J.C. Ramirez, Garrett Gould, Maximo Castillo, Andrew Jordan, and Lyon Richardson.

Richardson owns an impressive four-pitch mix: a low- to mid-90s fastball that was touching 95 mph regularly late in the year; an improved curveball showing better bite that flashed above-average; a tightly spun slider, and a quietly solid changeup. The Jensen Beach High School product really seemed to be emphasizing his changeup develop in the latter part of the year, often going to it as an “out pitch”. At times it showed some promising fade and run. Richardson’s control/command was far better than advertised in 2019. In fact, he only walked more than two hitters just twice last season. And in both instances, he handed out just three free passes in six-inning starts. He’s poised to become one of the bigger breakout prospects in 2020.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

______________________________________________________________________________

9. Rece Hinds, SS

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50 60 30 55 45+ 50

Background: The front office took the “Go Big or Go Home” approach in the early parts of the draft last June. The organization signed first rounder Nick Lodolo to a recommended slot bonus worth slightly more than $5 million. They inked Rece Hinds, their second round pick, to an above-slot deal worth $1.797 million. And then they more than doubled the recommended bonus for third rounder Tyler Callihan. A product of IMG Academy – which churned out fellow 2019 picks Brennan Malone, the Arizona’s first round pick; and Kendall Williams, Toronto’s second round selection – Hinds was committed to attend Louisiana State University prior to signing with the club. He appeared in just three Appalachian League games, going 0-for-8 with three strikeouts and two walks.

Scouting Report: Big time plus power potential that helped him capture the Under Armour All-America homerun derby two years ago. Hinds has terrific size and some of the draft class’s best pure bat speed. There’s a lot rumblings that scouts are worried about his hit tool and whether he’s going to make enough consistent contact. Make no mistake about it: he’s a dead red hitter. But he didn’t (A) show a propensity to chase offspeed pitches out of the zone and (B) when he was fooled on offspeed stuff battled enough to foul off plenty of offerings. He looks solid enough to remain at third, though his athleticism would allow him to slide into a corner outfielder position.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

______________________________________________________________________________

10. Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 60 60 55 45 45

Background: Signed on the international free agent market for $4.75 million near the end of August 2016. Gutierrez, the Serie Nacional Rookie of the Year for the 2013-14 season, has moved methodically through the Reds’ farm system: he spent a year each in the Florida State, Southern, and International Leagues. Last season the Cuban import made a career high-tying 27 starts with the Louisville Bats, throwing 137.0 innings while racking up 117 punch outs and handing out 48 free passes. However, he compiled a 6.04 ERA and a slightly better 4.93 DRA (Deserved Run Average). For his stateside career, Gutierrez is averaging an impressive 8.3 strikeouts and just 2.4 walks per nine innings with a 4.98 ERA.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only six 23-year-old pitchers met the following criteria in the International League (min. 100 IP): a strikeout percentage between 18% and 20% with a walk percentage between 7% and 9%. Those six pitchers: Michael Bowden, Jeanmar Gomez, Ivan Nova, Chris Mason, Kevin Mulvey, and Vladimir Gutierrez.

So…a couple things:

The secondary stuff looked remarkably better, especially late in the season. The curveball was ridiculous and the changeup showed some better fade.

He’s an enigma of sorts. The repertoire, even in past years, has never played as well as expected. He’s similar to Rockies right-hander Jeff Hoffman. They’re both eerily too hittable.

Gutierrez is now entering his age-24 season. His control/command has declined in each of the last two seasons. And as basic and untrustworthy as it is, his ERA since 2019 is nearly 5.00 ERA. Again, I think he’s a prime candidate to improve under the Kyle Boddy-led pitching clinics. If not, he’s a multiple inning reliever at the big league level.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.