Two top members of Paul Ryan’s leadership team, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Majority Whip Steve Scalise, have begun angling for his job in the event the speaker calls it quits after the election.

They’re closely monitoring the moves of the other and quietly courting Republicans who could help either of them clinch the top post, according to 20 GOP lawmakers and aides interviewed for this report.


Neither is actively rounding up votes at this point, and both downplayed the possibility of a looming clash. Scalise said in an interview that he would not challenge McCarthy for speaker — “I’m not running against Kevin for anything,” he told POLITICO — while McCarthy said he’s focused solely on keeping the House in November and pursuing President Donald Trump’s agenda.

But Scalise also expressed interest in leading the conference someday — remarks that only intensified simmering speculation in GOP circles about his intentions. Adding to the intrigue, some of Scalise’s allies have urged him to be ready should McCarthy falls short for speaker, as he did in 2015. And some of McCarthy’s allies discount Scalise’s vows not to mount a direct challenge, noting Scalise’s willingness to attempt to leapfrog more senior Republicans in the past.

“Everyone is talking about this,” said one veteran Republican House member who requested anonymity in discussing the brewing rivalry. . “We’re sizing them up, seeing who would be a better fit. It’s the prism that we look at them through now.”

As Ryan’s No. 2, McCarthy would have the clearest path to the speakership, though it’s far from a lock. Distrust among the conference’s right flank contributed to his failed 2015 bid, when Ryan was recruited as a white knight. McCarthy did not lose interest, however, and he is trying to forge new alliances as well as patch up a once-rocky relationship with the House Freedom Caucus ahead of a potential second run.

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The California Republican has a lot going for him that he did not three years ago, most notably his tight relationship with President Donald Trump, who calls him “my Kevin.” If Trump endorses McCarthy for the job, as McCarthy allies think he would, the president's sway with conservatives could help seal the deal.

The 53-year-old McCarthy also has been working closely with Vice President Mike Pence, his former House colleague. The duo is raising millions of dollars for GOP incumbents and hopefuls. McCarthy has also done countless favors for rank-and-file Republicans during his eight years in Republican leadership, from holding fundraisers to ensuring lawmakers’ pet bills get floor votes. Those chits could be invaluable to McCarthy, assuming Republicans hold on to the House.

“If there is an opportunity for Kevin to be speaker of the House, I think he’d do a fantastic job,” said Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga.), one of McCarthy’s closest allies. “I know he’s prepared for it and could step into the role at any time, but his focus right now is maintaining the majority.”

“It’s McCarthy’s to lose,” said another GOP lawmaker close with McCarthy. “I think he’s in a lot stronger place than last time because he’s got a close relationship with Trump.”

Yet with a potentially slimmer GOP majority next year — if Republicans even keep the House — McCarthy might not be able to afford even a small number of Freedom Caucus members to oppose him.

The group of hard-liners view Ryan and, before him, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) as frequent sellouts to the conservative cause — and some members don’t trust that McCarthy would be much different. While the 40-odd member group can’t alone make McCarthy speaker — or promote one of their own into the job — the fact remains that McCarthy can’t get the job if the Freedom Caucus unites against him again.

“He’s not speaker now because he’s got a fairly liberal Republican track record,” Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), a Freedom Caucus member, told a local Alabama radio station last month.

“The talk primarily is focused on Steve Scalise. ... He’s somewhat of a heroic figure because of what he went through with the baseball shooting,” Brooks added, referring to Scalise nearly losing his life to a gunman last summer during a baseball practice. “And then, he’s a little more conservative than Kevin McCarthy and thus, might be better suited.”

Another Freedom Caucus member told POLITICO he thought Scalise would govern with a bottom-up approach as opposed to what he views as the current top-down style that has rankled the group.

But McCarthy is working to overcome the caucus’ distrust, and he’s made headway with one critical player in the group: Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), its chairman.

In an interview, Meadows said McCarthy has a real shot at the speakership, though he stopped short of endorsing him for the position. Meadows said McCarthy has followed through on promises he’s made to conservatives, including on the timing of a critical tax reform vote in December and on a strategy for funding the military that ultimately died in the Senate because of Democratic opposition.

Meadows also said the two men, as well as Ryan, have discussed “seeing better representation of a broad spectrum of members on certain committees and chairmanships." (Conservative rebels rarely get plum committee assignments, and many House Republicans expect the next GOP speaker to have to give some hard-liners better positions for their support.)

“I think Kevin McCarthy is certainly in the running to make that case” for speaker, Meadows said. “Suggesting that Steve Scalise is the next speaker because of anything that may or may not have happened in the past with regards to [McCarthy] trying to be the speaker, is just not accurate.”

McCarthy has been steering money to Freedom Caucus members, including Reps. Rod Blum of Iowa, Morgan Griffith of Virginia and Alex Mooney of West Virginia. He’s done events for other conservatives, including Reps. Ken Buck of Colorado, Andy Harris of Maryland, Gary Palmer of Alabama and David Schweikert of Arizona. And McCarthy recently praised Rep. Jim Jordan, perhaps the biggest thorn in leadership’s side, during a swing through Jordan’s home state of Ohio.

History is also on McCarthy’s side. During the last century, as the majority leader post was formalized and evolved into an elected position, 11 lawmakers in the post have gone on to become speaker.

McCarthy dismisses speculation about his future, insisting he’s focused on keeping the House in GOP hands and nothing else.

“Paul Ryan is our speaker and I hope he is our speaker for a very long time,” McCarthy said in a statement. “The only office I am focused on are the offices of each and every member in our conference, and ensuring we continue to earn the American people's trust and keep the House Republican majority to continue delivering on President Trump's agenda.”

Still, a faction of House Republicans is encouraging Scalise to prepare to run for speaker in the event McCarthy is faced with the possibility but not able to corral the votes. They want to avoid the leadership vacuum that occurred post-Boehner, when the House GOP Conference, without a clear heir apparent, was in chaos.

The 52-year-old Scalise has heeded their advice, according to lawmakers and aides close to him. Scalise wasn’t initially seen as potential speaker material. But he’s being viewed in a new light, in part because of his extraordinary recovery from the near-fatal gunshot wound last year.

Scalise also has the benefit of knowing the conference inside and out after several years as whip. He has raised record amounts of money for a person in the No. 3 House Republican position. And the speakership speculation has only grown since Scalise started flying around the country in February to raise funds for candidates even though he just recently started walking again.

“This is the next speaker. Take that to the bank,” said Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas) as he introduced Scalise to donors in his district a few weeks ago.

Williams’ chief of staff, Colby Hale, said the comment was intended to be “lighthearted.” But he added: “If and when Speaker Ryan decides it’s time to no longer be speaker, Congressman Williams thinks Whip Scalise would be a natural leader to step up.”

One of Scalise's future stops will be for Rep. Dave Brat, a Freedom Caucus member from a traditionally safe Virginia district who has suddenly found himself in a real race. The pairing suggests Scalise, too, is moving to strengthen his bond with conservatives.

Scalise, some GOP lawmakers have noticed, has also positioned himself to the right of McCarthy on several issues, including immigration. Scalise in early February met with Stephen Miller, the White House aide and well-known immigration hawk, to discuss how to get a conservative “Dreamers” bill passed in the House — a measure some in GOP leadership has dismissed as DOA. The meeting raised eyebrows among some Republicans who thought McCarthy had been designated the top Republican on immigration.

Scalise has also dedicated more time to national security, hosting a private dinner last month with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and several House GOP chairmen. McCarthy has typically convened these types of gatherings over the years. And during the early April congressional recess, Scalise took a delegation of 10 House Republicans to Morocco, Spain and Switzerland to learn about the origins of homegrown terrorism, according to his office.

Scalise, in the interview late last month, called talk of the speakership a “distraction” from the battle to save the endangered GOP majority.

“I’m not running against Kevin for anything,” he said. “There are rumors going on and obviously everybody focuses on palace intrigue. … I don’t like to participate in rumor-mill speculation because it’s counterproductive. It’s not really reality in many cases, and it takes away from your main job.”

Still, Scalise’s growing profile has created some tension with McCarthy allies who view him as a threat. The McCarthy camp was furious when Scalise refused to rule out a bid for speaker some day in the same POLITICO interview — comments McCarthy allies took as a jab at his chances of winning the post.

Both offices publicly dispute that there’s any tension between them. Indeed, McCarthy used his opening remarks at the National Republican Congressional Committee’s annual dinner in March to lavish praise on Scalise. But Republicans say it’s hard not to notice that each is trying to one-up the other.

Case in point: McCarthy and Scalise both signed onto a letter by Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) calling for Attorney General Jeff Sessions to appoint a special counsel to investigate Hillary Clinton’s email controversy. Until now, GOP leadership privately rolled their eyes at the effort, seeing it as a rallying cry of the far right disconnected from present reality.

Lawmakers also note McCarthy has dramatically increased his appearances on TV over the past several months, in what’s seen as an effort to raise his profile. And while McCarthy has always been outgoing and socially active, lawmakers say he's courting members even more, reaching out to influential members in the conference such as Republican Study Committee Chairman Mark Walker (R-N.C.) — someone both sides see as a potential kingmaker.

McCarthy and Scalise’s relationship goes back more than a decade.

In 2008, McCarthy flew to Louisiana for former Rep. Bobby Jindal’s inauguration as governor. Scalise, then running in a crowded GOP primary to replace Jindal, introduced himself to McCarthy and treated him to a tour of the state Capitol. Later that year, McCarthy was the highest-profile national figure to endorse Scalise for Congress and cut him a check.

McCarthy also helped Scalise salvage his political career in 2014 after it emerged that he had delivered a speech 12 years earlier to a white supremacist group.

Scalise vehemently denied knowing the group had a racist agenda and was able to survive the scandal in part because McCarthy and Boehner — as well as Scalise's close friend, Rep. Cedric Richmond, an African-American Democrat from Louisiana — threw him a lifeline. “I’ve known him as a friend for many years and I know that he does not share the beliefs of that organization,” McCarthy said at the time.

Nowadays, though, McCarthy’s allies view Scalise as a threat.

One lawmaker close to the California Republican suggested that he wouldn’t put it past Scalise to run against McCarthy for the speakership, or minority leader if the GOP loses the House. The person noted that Scalise has previously jumped over more senior members as he rose through the leadership ranks, including in his bids for RSC chairman and party whip.

“He’s pretty ballsy,” the GOP lawmaker said of Scalise.

The shift in dynamic between McCarthy and Scalise has caught the attention of some in the White House. Trump, however, might not have realized the nerve he struck when he noted which of the two men was quicker to recognize him at the NRCC’s March fundraising dinner.

“Steve stood up faster than you, Kevin!” Trump exclaimed.

