A new Civitas Poll provides the most recent insights into what North Carolina voters are thinking leading up to the March 15 primary.

The live-caller poll asked 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans separately who their choice was for president. Voters were also asked about the gubernatorial and U.S. candidates, the NC bond, and all contested statewide races.

Our survey of 500 likely Democrat North Carolina primary voters has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.38 percent. The survey was taken March 3, 5-7, 2016.

Our survey of 500 likely Republican North Carolina primary voters has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.38 percent. The survey was taken March 5-7, 2016.

For Republican primary voters

Actual text of the political primary questions, in the order in which they were asked:

If the Republican Primary for President were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between? (READ IN ORDER)

1/16 1/19 3/7

3% 2% 2% Mike Huckabee

2% 2% 11% John R. Kasich

2% 2% 1% Rand Paul

11% 10% 11% Marco Rubio

— 1% — Rick Santorum

25% 27% 32% Donald J. Trump

3% 4% 2% Jeb Bush

9% 7% 3% Ben Carson

4% 4% — Chris Christie

22% 23% 26% Ted Cruz

2% 2% — Carly Fiorina

— — — Jim Gilmore

15% 11% 6% Or would you say you have No Preference

— 2% 1% Other (Specify)

1% 2% 5% Refused

(IF the response to the above question was Huckabee, Paul, Santorum, Bush, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Gilmore; respondents were then asked:)

As you may know, [the candidate named in the previous question] has dropped out of the presidential race. Out of the following candidates who are still running in the Republican Primary for President, for whom would you vote between: (RANDOMIZE)

19% John Kasich

12% Marco Rubio

14% Donald Trump

28% Ted Cruz

24% Don’t Know/ Unsure

2% Refused

(ASK ALL)

And of the following, who is best described by the phrase: “Cares about people like me.” (RANDOMIZE)

18% John Kasich

13% Marco Rubio

25% Donald Trump

29% Ted Cruz

13% Don’t Know/ Unsure

1% Other (Specify)

1% Refused

If the Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)

1/19 3/7

1% 3% Total Holmquist

3% 2% Total Wright

7% 14% Total Brannon

45% 42% Total Burr

42% 39% Total Lean/ Undecided

1% 2% DEFINITELY HOLMQUIST

— 1% PROBABLY HOLMQUIST

1% 1% LEAN HOLMQUIST

2% 1% DEFINITELY WRIGHT

1% 1% PROBABLY WRIGHT

— — LEAN WRIGHT

5% 10% DEFINITELY BRANNON

2% 4% PROBABLY BRANNON

— 1% LEAN BRANNON

26% 29% DEFINITELY BURR

19% 13% PROBABLY BURR

4% 2% LEAN BURR

38% 35% HARD UNDECIDED

— — NAMED OTHER

1% 1% REFUSED

If the Republican Primary Election for North Carolina Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)

1/16 3/7

63% 65% Total McCrory

3% Total Moss

8% 6% Total Brawley

28% 25% Total Lean/ Undecided

49% 49% DEFINITELY MCCRORY

14% 16% PROBABLY MCCRORY

2% 3% LEAN MCCRORY

1% DEFINITELY MOSS

2% PROBABLY MOSS

1% LEAN MOSS

4% 4% DEFINITELY BRAWLEY

4% 2% PROBABLY BRAWLEY

3% — LEAN BRAWLEY

23% 22% HARD UNDECIDED

— — NAMED OTHER

1% 1% REFUSED

If the Republican Primary Election for Secretary of State were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Michael LaPaglia or A. J. Daoud?

1/16 3/7

6% 12% Total LaPaglia

7% 12% Total Daoud

85% 70% Total Lean/ Undecided

3% 6% Definitely LaPaglia

3% 6% Probably LaPaglia

1% 1% Lean LaPaglia

81% 66% Undecided

3% 3% Lean Daoud

4% 6% Probably Daoud

3% 6% Definitely Daoud

2% 5% Refused

If the Republican Primary Election for Attorney General were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Buck Newton or Jim O’Neill?

1/16 3/7

5% 22% Total Newton

16% 21% Total O’Neill

77% 54% Total Lean/ Undecided

3% 13% Definitely Newton

2% 8% Probably Newton

1% 2% Lean Newton

72% 49% Undecided

3% 2% Lean O’Neill

7% 12% Probably O’Neill

9% 9% Definitely O’Neill

1% 4% Refused

If the Republican Primary Election for Superintendent of Public Instruction were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)

1/16 3/7

11% 16% Total Johnson

2% Total Sills

7% 11% Total Stein

80% 66% Total Lean/ Undecided

7% 9% DEFINITELY JOHNSON

5% 7% PROBABLY JOHNSON

2% 1% LEAN JOHNSON

1% DEFINITELY SILLS

1% PROBABLY SILLS

— LEAN SILLS

5% 7% DEFINITELY STEIN

2% 5% PROBABLY STEIN

2% 2% LEAN STEIN

76% 63% HARD UNDECIDED

— — NAMED OTHER

1% 4% REFUSED

If the Republican Primary Election for Commissioner of Insurance were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)

1/16 3/7

— 10% Total McLaughlin

6% 6% Total Pierce

10% 10% Total Causey

84% 70% Total Lean/ Undecided

6% DEFINITELY MCLAUGHLIN

4% PROBABLY MCLAUGHLIN

1% LEAN MCLAUGHLIN

5% 1% DEFINITELY PIERCE

2% 5% PROBABLY PIERCE

2% — LEAN PIERCE

6% 7% DEFINITELY CAUSEY

4% 3% PROBABLY CAUSEY

1% 1% LEAN CAUSEY

80% 67% HARD UNDECIDED

— 1% NAMED OTHER

— 4% REFUSED

If the Republican Primary Election for Commissioner of Agriculture were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Andy Stevens or Steve Troxler?

13% Total Stevens

34% Total Troxler

48% Total Lean/Undecided

6% Definitely Stevens

7% Probably Stevens

1% Lean Stevens

44% Undecided

3% Lean Troxler

12% Probably Troxler

22% Definitely Troxler

5% Refused

Please tell me if you would vote FOR or AGAINST the “Connect NC Public Improvement Bond,” which will be on the ballot this March and reads: “The issuance of two billion dollars State of North Carolina Public Improvement Bonds constituting general obligation bonds of the State secured by a pledge of the faith and credit and taxing power of the State for the purpose of providing funds, with any other available funds, to fund capital improvements and new facilities for the State, including, without limitation, the construction and furnishing of new facilities and the renovation and rehabilitation of existing facilities for, without limitation, the University of North Carolina System, the North Carolina Community College System, water and sewer systems, the State’s National Guard, the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, attractions and parks, and the Department of Public Safety.”

1/16 3/7

42% 49% For

35% 33% Against

23% 17% Don’t Know/ Need more Information

— 1% Refused

And thinking about the November General Election for one moment…

Of the following candidates in the Democrat Presidential Primary field – which candidate could you see yourself possibly voting for in November: (ROTATE)

22% Bernie Sanders

11% Hillary Clinton

62% None/Don’t Know

5% Refused

Crosstabs for Republican voters can be viewed here. (Crosstabs for Democrats are below.)

For Democratic primary voters

Actual text of the political primary questions, in the order in which they were asked:

If the Democratic Primary for President were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between? (READ IN ORDER)

1/16 3/7

2% 1% Martin O’Malley

28% 28% Bernie Sanders

53% 57% Hillary Clinton

— — Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente

15% 8% Or would you say you have No Preference

1% 2% Someone else (Specify)

— 3% Refused

(IF ANSWER TO ABOVE IS O’MALLEY, ASK)

As you may know, [Martin O’Malley] has dropped out of the presidential race. Out of the following candidates who are still running in the Democratic Primary for President, for whom would you vote between: (RANDOMIZE)

25% Bernie Sanders

31% Hillary Clinton

— Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente

43% Don’t Know/ Unsure

— Refused

(ASK ALL)

And of the following, who is best described by the phrase: “Cares about people like me.” (RANDOMIZE)

31% Bernie Sanders

47% Hillary Clinton

1% Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente

17% Don’t Know/ Unsure

1% Other (Specify)

4% Refused

If the Democratic Primary Election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote between:

1/16 3/7

— 2% Total Reeves

3% 2% Total Rey

13% 23% Total Ross

6% 7% Total Griffin

70% 62% Total Lean/ Undecided

1% DEFINITELY REEVES

1% PROBABLY REEVES

1% LEAN REEVES

1% 2% DEFINITELY REY

2% — PROBABLY REY

— — LEAN REY

8% 17% DEFINITELY ROSS

5% 5% PROBABLY ROSS

1% 2% LEAN ROSS

3% 3% DEFINITELY GRIFFIN

3% 4% PROBABLY GRIFFIN

1% 1% LEAN GRIFFIN

68% 58% HARD UNDECIDED

2% — NAMED OTHER

5% 4% REFUSED

If the Democratic Primary Election for North Carolina Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Ken Spaulding or Roy Cooper?

1/16 3/7

11% 12% Total Spaulding

48% 52% Total Cooper

38% 34% Total Lean/ Undecided

6% 7% Definitely Spaulding

4% 5% Probably Spaulding

2% 1% Lean Spaulding

32% 29% Undecided

4% 5% Lean Cooper

15% 14% Probably Cooper

32% 38% Definitely Cooper

3% 2% Refused

If the Democratic Primary Election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)

1/16 3/7

7% 8% Total Jones

3% 2% Total Newton

4% 2% Total Wilson

15% 23% Total Coleman

65% 60% Total Lean/ Undecided

3% 5% DEFINITELY JONES

4% 3% PROBABLY JONES

1% 1% LEAN JONES

1% 1% DEFINITELY NEWTON

1% 1% PROBABLY NEWTON

— — LEAN NEWTON

1% 1% DEFINITELY WILSON

3% 1% PROBABLY WILSON

— — LEAN WILSON

9% 16% DEFINITELY COLEMAN

6% 7% PROBABLY COLEMAN

2% 3% LEAN COLEMAN

61% 55% HARD UNDECIDED

2% — NAMED OTHER

4% 5% REFUSED

If the Democratic Primary Election for Attorney General were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Josh Stein or Marcus W. Williams?

17% Total Stein

20% Total Williams

59% Total Lean/Undecided

12% Definitely Stein

4% Probably Stein

2% Lean Stein

54% Undecided

3% Lean Williams

7% Probably Williams

13% Definitely Williams

4% Refused

If the Democratic Primary Election for Treasurer were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Dan Blue III or Ron Elmer?

1/16 3/7

20% 29% Total Blue III

10% 15% Total Elmer

64% 52% Total Lean/ Undecided

13% 20% Definitely Blue III

7% 9% Probably Blue III

3% 3% Lean Blue III

60% 48% Undecided

1% 2% Lean Elmer

5% 5% Probably Elmer

5% 10% Definitely Elmer

6% 4% Refused

If the Democratic Primary Election for Superintendent of Public Instruction were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Henry J. Pankey or June Atkinson?

1/16 3/7

7% 7% Total Pankey

33% 37% Total Atkinson

55% 52% Total Lean/ Undecided

4% 5% Definitely Pankey

3% 2% Probably Pankey

— 1% Lean Pankey

51% 47% Undecided

4% 5% Lean Atkinson

12% 11% Probably Atkinson

21% 26% Definitely Atkinson

4% 4% Refused

If the Democratic Primary Election for Labor Commissioner were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Charles Meeker or Mazie Ferguson?

21% Total Meeker

15% Total Ferguson

60% Total Lean/ Undecided

17% Definitely Meeker

4% Probably Meeker

3% Lean Meeker

55% Undecided

3% Lean Ferguson

6% Probably Ferguson

9% Definitely Ferguson

4% Refused

Please tell me if you would vote FOR or AGAINST the “Connect NC Public Improvement Bond,” which will be on the ballot this March and reads: “The issuance of two billion dollars State of North Carolina Public Improvement Bonds constituting general obligation bonds of the State secured by a pledge of the faith and credit and taxing power of the State for the purpose of providing funds, with any other available funds, to fund capital improvements and new facilities for the State, including, without limitation, the construction and furnishing of new facilities and the renovation and rehabilitation of existing facilities for, without limitation, the University of North Carolina System, the North Carolina Community College System, water and sewer systems, the State’s National Guard, the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, attractions and parks, and the Department of Public Safety.”

1/16 3/7

66% 69% For

14% 18% Against

19% 12% Don’t Know/ Need more Information

1% — Refused

And thinking about the November General Election for one moment…

Of the following candidates in the Republican Presidential Primary field – which candidate could you see yourself possibly voting for in November: (RANDOMIZE)

24% John Kasich

13% Marco Rubio

8% Donald Trump

8% Ted Cruz

47% None/ Don’t Know

— Refused

Crosstabs for Democratic voters can be viewed here. (Crosstabs for Republicans are above.)