Hillary Clinton's performance in this week’s presidential debate — and the subsequent fallout — is fueling a surge of confidence about her prospects in the battleground states that will decide the election.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of swing-state activists, strategists and operatives. Virtually all Democrats and nearly half of Republicans said the debate has given Clinton some much-needed momentum in the Electoral College battlegrounds where Trump had been gaining ground.


For many insiders, Clinton’s good week was driven more by Trump's demeanor and behavior in the days after the debate — which included re-litigating his 19-year-old comments about the then-Miss Universe’s weight gain —as what happened on the stage at Hofstra University. Ninety-three percent of Democratic insiders said the debate and the days since helped Clinton in their state, with only 7 percent saying it didn’t have an impact on the race. No Democrats said the week benefited Trump. (Immediately following the debate on Monday night, insiders in both parties said Clinton delivered the better performance.)

“Not only did Trump lose the debate, he's spent the entire week on the defensive over his stupid comments about a woman's weight,” said a Nevada Democrat — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “His inability to let anything go makes every controversy ten times worse. The fact that ‘registrarse para votar’ was a top Google search nationally after the debate is a good sign for Clinton in states like Nevada.”

“Volunteers are energized,” added an Ohio Democrat. “More volunteers are showing up in the campaign offices the last couple days.”

The claim of an increase in volunteers was echoed by a Wisconsin Democrat: “We have seen more people coming into the campaign office, asking how they can help and wanting to get involved.”

Democrats were perhaps most encouraged that Clinton’s debate performance — and the negative news coverage that ensued over the past few days — may have stalled or reversed Trump’s climbing poll numbers over the past few weeks.

“Nationally and in Colorado the polls were tightening, and Trump was on the move,” a Democrat there said. “The debate completely stopped that. Hillary not only crushed Trump, she did it while still coming across as incredibly likable. That's a huge deal for her, and will help lock in her support with suburban women and younger voters.”

“It's not just the debate — which was awful for him — it was the coverage of the debate,” a Wisconsin Democrat added. “He's getting killed.”

Republicans were more divided about the week's impact: 47 percent said it would have no impact at all — but roughly just as many, 43 percent, said it would help Clinton. Only 10 percent said Trump would benefit.

“The debate helped to stop the hemorrhaging in the Clinton campaign's messaging and management when Trump went off-script and went back to the Trump of the primary debates,” said a Wisconsin Republican. “Clinton should send him a thank-you note.”

A number of Republicans said Trump, in particular, may have further alienated voters who have been more resistant to him than Republican candidates in the past.

“Any inroads Trump had made with suburban women is now gone after that debate,” said an Ohio Republican. “Also, I have to imagine the African-American community is getting more energized after his birther answer.”

“I have no doubt moderate suburban women here moved towards Clinton after the debate,” a New Hampshire Republican said.

“The debate helped her among moderate Southeast undecideds, which is already Trump's weakest area,” a Pennsylvania Republican said, referring to the populous Philadelphia metro area. “If she builds her lead there, he can't make up the difference elsewhere.”

“[Northern Virginia] women are a key group for Trump to crack,” added a Virginia Republican. “He set himself back.”

But other Republicans stressed that the debate and the aftermath didn’t move the needle in their states.

“People saw what they wanted,” said an Ohio Republican. “Few votes moved. Small but discernible momentum continues for Trump in Ohio.”

That was confirmed by the weekly benchmark question: For the third consecutive week, slightly more than half of Republicans said Trump would win their state if the election were held today: 52 percent to 48 percent for Clinton.

“Even with the debate debacle continuing to drag on Trump, he is still well positioned to win Iowa,” said a Republican there. “He is [ahead] well outside the margin of error and tapping into Iowa's deep reservoir of political independents and lesser educated, white voters.”

“Michigan is a state that is Trump's for the taking,” added a Republican there. “He's within five points, according to the latest in-state polls. The largely blue-collar, manufacturing-dependent Wolverine State is perfect for Trumpian stances on trade.”

But Democrats — who wavered slightly over the past few weeks about Clinton's prospects —are feeling invigorated about her chances. Ninety-five percent of Democratic insiders said Clinton would win their state if the election were held today — up a tick from the past two weeks (94 percent and 90 percent)

“Hillary stopped Trump's momentum with her brilliant and his dismal debate performance,” an Ohio Democrat said. “That will help extend the Clintons' perfect record in Ohio.”

“The debate was a turning point in Iowa,” a Democrat there added. “Folks were forced to look at the reality of what Trump is, and they didn't like it.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this special survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Christopher Murray, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Michigan: Jill Alper, Saul Anuzis, Andrea Bitely, Lori Carpentier, Howard Edelson, Jordan Gehrke, Steve Hood, Darwin Jiles Jr., Joe Lehman, Dennis Lennox, Katie Packer, Ronna Romney McDaniel, John Truscott, Stephanie White, John Yob

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.