Roberto Martínez faces a difficult start, and has yet to seriously strengthen his squad, as he looks to prove that his disappointing second season was a blip

Guardian writers’ predicted position: 8th (NB: this is not necessarily Andy Hunter’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 11th

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 200-1

There was a certain kudos for Roberto Martínez in appearing the polar opposite of his predecessor a year ago. No longer. Rightly or wrongly, David Moyes established a reputation for playing down Everton’s prospects while gradually building his team up. The image Martínez must dispel in his third season at Goodison Park is of the manager who talked up Everton while swiftly bringing the team down.

Following the enterprising, re-energising debut campaign that yielded the club’s record points tally in the Premier League era, the only spectacular aspect of Martínez’s second year was the extent of Everton’s decline.

Last summer’s pre-season preview ended with a line intended to reflect the optimism and ambition of a team who had finished fifth on 72 points, secured their best young players to long-term contracts and agreed a £28m deal with Chelsea for Romelu Lukaku. “The next step is clear; to go one better,” it read. How misplaced that proved to be as an Everton squad that Martínez insisted had improved and was equipped to pursue both the Europa League title and with it Champions League qualification tumbled to 11th and 47 points.

The club’s lowest league finish in nine years and smallest points total since 2004 was accompanied by immediate exits in the FA Cup and League Cup for the first time in their history. Only from 15 March, when an appalling Newcastle United team were beaten 3-0 at Goodison, did Everton produce the momentum of three consecutive league wins to pull clear of relegation trouble. Martínez visibly aged amid the pressure and there has been little to prevent the spread of worry lines around Liverpool 4 since. Granted, with almost five weeks before the close of the transfer window, there is scope for that to change.

Chelsea have had a £20m bid rejected for John Stones and a second offer for the classy defender is imminent. Everton remain adamant that Moyes’ final signing as manager is not for sale and, in a rather quaint move, put their stance on the England international in writing to the Premier League champions. Hopefully the letter removed the need for a distracting transfer saga by simply stating: “You got £50m for David Luiz.” Manchester United’s outlay on Luke Shaw last summer, £27m rising to £31m, also demonstrates the market price for young English defensive talent. And Stones is comparatively more valuable to Chelsea than Shaw is to United if, as claimed, José Mourinho sees the 21-year-old as John Terry’s heir apparent.

Martínez ideally envisages constructing a Champions League-challenging team around the emerging core of Stones, James McCarthy – another player linked with the exit this summer in the absence of a new contract offer – Ross Barkley and Lukaku. He needs another central defender even in the event of Everton resisting Chelsea’s advances for Stones with Sylvain Distin and Antolín Alcaraz released. Another striker to ease the responsibility on Lukaku is also required, with a predictable attack one of Everton’s problems last season prior to the injection of Aaron Lennon’s pace and directness while on loan from Tottenham Hotspur.

Everton balked at Spurs’ £9m valuation of Lennon, a 28-year-old with only a year remaining on his contract at White Hart Lane, and have dismissed the idea of the winger forming part of a deal for McCarthy. They can ill-afford to lose the Republic of Ireland midfielder who needs to become more of a leader for Everton next season, though Martínez retains interest in a separate deal for Lennon.

The Everton manager has confirmed he wants two further additions before the window shuts. While he would never rock the boat with a board who stood by him during last season’s many trials, there must be concern at the minimal investment in his squad so far. Gerard Deulofeu has arrived for £4.2m from Barcelona after a belatedly effective season on loan at Goodison in 2013-14 while Martínez has also sought a reunion with Tom Cleverley, a player he managed briefly at Wigan Athletic and has acquired on a free from Manchester United. Both will have to address the lack of ingenuity and sharpness that afflicted Everton last season when a sudden vulnerability in defence increased the manager’s problems.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest John Stones has been the subject of a £20m bid from Chelsea, which Everton turned down. The Premier League champions are expected to return with a fresh offer. Photograph: Graham Stuart/Reuters

While the club has wisely used the current broadcasting deal to reduce overall debt there is an element of risk in improving only modestly a squad that spent the bulk of last season in the lower reaches. Swansea City, Stoke City and Crystal Palace all finished above Everton in 2014-15 and have been more active in this summer’s transfer market. Not that new faces are a cure-all by any means, but ambitious players like Lukaku, Stones and others will have noted West Ham United beating their employer to the signature of the Juventus defender Angelo Ogbonna and even Mike Ashley displaying greater intent at Newcastle.

Improvement must come from within, regardless of what materialises in the market before 1 September. The manager’s selections and tactics invited scorn from supporters – his own players even made a direct appeal for Martínez to abandon possession for possession’s sake and go more direct to Lukaku – but the under-achievement was collective. The Europa League became an excuse for Premier League toils despite Everton’s worst run of form arriving during the European winter break. Their workload is reduced this term.

Barkley struggled with heightened expectation and admitted recently to suffering a loss of confidence as the season progressed. An overdue break from football this summer, with the midfielder omitted from the European Under-21 Championship, will hopefully reignite the spark. Injuries or World Cup exertions – or both – impacted on Lukaku, Tim Howard, Phil Jagielka, who eventually recovered superbly, and Leighton Baines. He and fellow full-back Seamus Coleman were contained too easily last term yet remain a potent asset. Lukaku was at times accused of coasting but it was hard not to feel sympathy for a formidable striker whose strengths were not always utilised and occasionally wasted. He still ended the season with 20 goals in all competitions.

The squad that took Everton close to a top-four finish two seasons ago remains largely intact, for now. Martínez’s men face a demanding start with eight of their opening 10 matches against teams that finished above them last time out. It is also an opportunity to show last season was the exception, not the start of a retreat to the middle ground.