That wasn't part of the plan, surely. But then, the "plan" had only ever been one of resist by any means. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull can ill-afford to upset conservatives in an election year. Credit:Anthony Johnson Despite the obvious risk that ordinary people might eventually wave the change through, the undated plebiscite at least, bought time for conservatives – perhaps even years, had Tony Abbott remained in charge. That it was conceded at all was only because other ideas had been tried up to and including dragging the Nationals into the Liberal party room to bolster the "no" forces. In this light, Abbott's camel-like formula - in which the party room would cease to be bound beyond the next election but would defend traditional marriage until then, followed by the promise of a post-election popular vote - was transparently a delaying tactic.

Albeit a clever one. Much like the direct electionists' strategy in the 1999 republic debate, the plebiscite idea pulled off the neat trick of hobbling immediate progress, while looking virtuous. After all, it is hard for pro-reform advocates to quibble with allowing the people to decide. The emergence of a majority in Parliament however, is a spanner in those works. This is because the reform does not require a potentially divisive popular vote, much less a referendum. What it requires is an ordinary parliamentary majority. A majority that is now there. If so, Malcolm Turnbull's commitment to the plebiscite can be seen for what it really is: an internal matter – the price of entry to the leadership. Slow and costly. Spare a thought for Turnbull though because he is well boxed-in. Breaking the Abbott timetable would invite a massive blue with his party's conservative base. He can ill-afford that, especially in an election year. Yet his own credibility with voters is also at stake if he is seen to trade principles in pursuit of power and an easier life.

One way forward would be to pass enabling "contingent" legislation before the election, and announce the plebiscite date as well. That would be a step towards both imperatives by observing the Abbott timetable while ensuring the popular will would be automatically enacted. Follow us on Twitter