In a lot of ways, political analysis of an election is pretty much an exercise in precognition: You're trying to predict the future based on a handful of only dimly reliable indicators: Past performance, which any statistician will tell you is not a reliable indicator of future results; primary election results, which in the case of Worcester's last election were an abominably low less than 9%; and conventional wisdom, which is loaded with confirmation bias. Honestly, you might as well be reading tarot cards.

So that's what we did. In order to get a feel for the Nov. 5 Worcester City Council and School Committee elections, we reached out to April March Penn of Allston. Penn is a queer poet who is the coauthor of "A Tarot Reading Guide for the Haunted Poet" and is the founder of Ram’s Head Tarot, a Boston-based tarot reading business. Most importantly, she knows next to nothing about Worcester and its politics, which we felt was important.

In order to interpret Penn's readings and divine how they might apply to the election, Worcester Magazine staffers Bill Shaner and Victor D. Infante were joined by Worcester political watchers Brendan Melican of "508: A Show About Worcester" and community organizer Marianna Islam, and together the quartet attempted to peer into Worcester's political future.

What forces are affecting the City Council and school board elections?



APRIL: The primary force affecting the City Council and school board elections is a nostalgia for the past and trying to recreate past successes. The work is resting too much on the shoulders of a few people, and the work is not distributed with an awareness of community. In the recent past, the organizers had to reinvent the wheel because the wheel was not passed down to them, and, in order to keep the structures in place so far, leaders will have to leave behind some issues that they think are important in favor of the greatest priorities. Subconsciously, leaders have a lot of dreams and ideals but haven’t expressed how they will actualize that reality. Consciously, there is a sense of impending doom, as if everything is going to fall apart. Overall, leaders will put forward ideas and emotions juxtaposed with intense threats of ruination while being unclear to the point of irrationality.



Key cards in this reading include the Tower — associated with a sense of sudden doom and destruction; The Six of Cups — associated with a nostalgic past; and The Seven of Cups — associated with dream-states that accompany a failure to act.



VICTOR: I find nostalgia both a dangerous and appropriate way to start this discussion, because it really does filter everything about Worcester politics, both good and bad. On the one hand, there are the political forces which are trying to reclaim Worcester’s greatness, before the manufacturing left and the city was plagued by White Elephants and boondoggles. On the other hand, there’s also the nostalgia enacted by those who yearn for when buildings on the Common were empty. I’m not sure which I find more concerning.



BILL: Wow. “The work is resting too much on the shoulders of a few people, and the work is not distributed with an awareness of community.” It seems in every issue, folks are calling for more transparency and more public involvement. But our government isn’t set up for that, and the work really does fall on the shoulders of the few people in the City Manager’s Office. Especially with a council that I would generously categorize as subordinate. On the “impending doom” reading, I’m immediately reminded of Ed Augustus’ line from last year maybe, where he compared the current development boom to a bumper crop harvest season. “We’ve got to rake it all in while we can” is what I think he said. That mentality has led to unforced errors, in my opinion.



BRENDAN: This nostalgia bit I find a mostly terrifying; nostalgia for what, exactly? The days before that pesky desegregation plan? When the city leadership was even more white and old? Ah, the good ol’ days … now I’ve got a sense of impending doom. Why did I agree to do this? Organization is certainly something to be concerned about as more and more communication from campaigns is pushed out via social media. Facebook algorithms don’t care who’s got the best or worst ideas, just which ones are going to provide the most eyeballs and a return on investment in advertising dollars. There’s still time for someone to run a write-in inspirational cat meme campaign for Mayor.



MARIANNA: Yikes! Nostalgia in city politics can be a fright-fest for people coming from marginalized communities who have been the least represented on both School Committee and City Council (see MassInc report). Five of the longest serving School Committee members, including the mayor, have been largely white and male and together combined have served nearly 90 years in a school district that is now overwhelmingly students of color. Moreover, we are still talking about the same issues that I discussed when I was a student organizer in the Worcester Public Schools.



Will the City Council see significant change?



APRIL: Yes, the City Council will see significant change caused by economic growth, building on the momentum that is already present in the city. Many cards in this reading were from the suit of pentacles, so financial issues regarding education, housing and new businesses will receive significant attention. Candidates that present a sense of stability and groundedness as well as a history of sound financial and business planning will be favored. This reading also points to leadership having to make decisions without having all of the information, so be advised that the economic growth is not so much created by the leadership as misunderstood by the leadership. Even in their misunderstanding, they are able to connect with political ideas to uplift the community.



Key cards in this reading include the three pentacles cards: The Nine of Pentacles indicating a harvest or bounty; The Ten of Pentacles associated with a sense of grounded completion; and The Six of Pentacles representing community needs.



BILL: Wow. Again. “Economic growth is not so much created by the leadership as misunderstood by the leadership.” There’s an urban planning class you could teach on Worcester and the decisions it has made with its downtown over the years. That should be the title. As far as the election goes, I don’t know what to make of this reading besides the fact that it will favor incumbents and those who are already well known and trusted.



BRENDAN: I really like this. I’ve long held the belief Worcester’s success happens not because of, but in spite of, City Hall. And I think that’s a reasonable balance. I know political fence sitters are out of fashion these days, but as we navigate through some explosive growth, measured reaction versus shoehorned preconceived belief seems like the best possible scenario for both those looking to cash in and those who need to keep their heads above water and, hopefully, thrive. None of us have all the answers, all the time, but hopefully our leaders are not just making stuff up as they go along. I don’t need the competition.



MARIANNA: Excited about this change as long as it contributes to moving the needle on more substantive matters that impact the city. Operating without enough information has the potential to impacts efforts in other areas. So few candidates are talking about gentrification in our city as they are talking about education, housing and small businesses. Like, if we are talking about retaining existing teachers in our schools and diversifying hirings of teachers, are we also talking about housing affordability so we are not pricing our own teachers out of our city?



VICTOR: The idea of “significant change” is an interesting one. Could one seat shifting — a newcomer for either a sitting or former councilor, for example — constitute that change? Because while I have trouble seeing many sitting candidates losing their races, and certainly not Mayor Joe Petty, I could believe Etel Haxhiaj might overcome Tony J. Economou for that last seat, and while that might be a small change, it would definitely be significant.



Will the School Committee see significant change?



APRIL: The School Committee will see some significant changes but newness will be more contemplative than action-oriented. Candidates who are fire signs (Aries, Leo and Sagittarius) will be somewhat favored, though I also see a strong leader from a different energy embodiment who is a consistent authority, and this leader has to teach the new fireflies how to locate the light outside of themselves.



Key cards include The Queen of Swords who represents the strong, guiding leader, and the three wands cards that represent the new energies coming on board.





BILL: That’s a pretty prophetic-feeling reading. We should circle back after the election on this one. Obviously there are a few people who come to mind when we talk about strong and consistent authorities on school issues, and there are a lot of newcomers in the race this year. This one could end up being spooky accurate. I’m a little shook. I’ll have to get all the candidates’ signs.



BRENDAN: Which energy embodiment will teach the fireflies comprehensive SexEd?



MARIANNA: This election season marks the first time in a long time that we have so many new candidates running for School Committee, many of who are Worcester Public School graduates, parents and people of color. So here is where I see the tension of contemplative vs action-oriented. What does it say when commencement after commencement address, we hear long-time School Committee members tell Worcester Public School graduates that they are the future and have the opportunity to make a change in their communities but then don’t empower them to have a seat at their table? What does it say when year after year they tell parents to get more involved and when they do, they don’t empower them to have a seat at their decision-making table?



VICTOR: I’d like to note that this reading was done before the passing of Brian O’Connell, whom I’ve always had a sense was the person who took on the mentor role with new School Committee members, at the very least in the sense of helping them learn the process. There will be at least two new members to the committee, with previous member Tracy O’Connell Novick having the bookie odds to snag one of them. I could very much see her in that sort of leadership role, bridging newer and older voices. Of course, not everyone agrees with Novick on issues, but then, not everyone agreed with O’Connell, either. This feels more about process than actual action. No matter what, though, with two new members and an absent O’Connell, there is no way that there won’t be a totally different vibe to that committee.



Are there any rising stars among first-time candidates?



APRIL: In this reading, no one stood out as having a central energy. Some candidates have a great deal of familiarity with the process while others are brand new. Some candidates speak from a sense of immediacy while others speak in riddles and suspense. The candidate who can find a way to divide up the work so that their work isn’t all about them will have an advantage in such an open-ended, chaotic playing field.



The key card in this reading is the Ten of Wands (which keeps coming up), representing too much individual work-load at the expense of community achievement.



BILL: All right, the way I read this, the ground game is the whole game. Those who speak clearly on issues that immediately affect people, as well as organize a good group of volunteers to share the load, will come out the victors. No, not you, Victor.



BRENDAN: I could support a candidate who only spoke in riddles. But give me a candidate who primarily uses metaphor and I’ll have my checkbook waiting. I think the message here is the old two ears, one mouth. You may only have a few thousand voters to impress for a win, but who are the candidates actually hearing 200K residents? Mix that with some good political theater (suspense), those are your stars.



MARIANNA: “The candidate who can find a way to divide up the work so that their work isn’t all about them will have an advantage.” There is a very small number of folks who went in alone with a very small base but are now seeing the larger “us” in the way they are politically organizing and aligning with others and, as a result, they have been able to successfully grow their base at the same time. This is evidenced by first-time candidates without a political family base who placed between 7-9 in the primaries like Etel Haxhiaj in the City Council race and Jermoah Kamara and Cara Berg Powers in the School Committee race.

VICTOR: “Riddles and suspense” says Bill Coleman to me, but I don’t think that it’s ever done him any good in his numerous runs for City Council. But on the School Committee front, I do think the challengers have done a better job of working collaboratively than the challengers for City Council, although Etel Haxhiaj seems to have collaborated well with that group of candidates, too, so perhaps we should definitely consider this as pointing to her. On the other hand, I do feel like a lot of the established candidates in both races are mostly working independently, so maybe some of them should see this as an omen.

Will the election sway the political disposition of city government?



APRIL: Yes, the election will sway the political disposition of the government. The main authorities remain stable, but they’ll have to contend with some new, swift forces of nature that fate has set into play. The new players cannot be embodied as much as witnessed, which will make it difficult to link their ideas with direct action. This is an age of feelings and ideas and the welcoming of awareness at the expense of project completion.



Key cards in this reading include the Death card, which indicates cycles of rebirth as well as the Sun, the Star and the Moon cards, which are the wild, out-of-control energies that won’t be fully understood. Also the Queen of Swords returns, which represents the traditional authorities and their attempt to make sense of political change.



BILL: Any close observer of Worcester politics knows that the real powers that be won’t be all that much affected by one election. But applying this reading to the School Committee side, this could mean trouble for Superintendent Maureen Binienda, whose run has been marked by controversy — much more so than the city manager. I think that committee could sure use some new, swift forces.

BRENDAN: If a new crop of candidates can shake up the establishment with ideas and feelings that resonate with the public, great. Lets just hope those feels are positive, or at least grounded in this century.

MARIANNA: YES! City residents, parents and students are showing up to contend for real power! The superintendent now has a transparent 14-point goals attached to her contract whereas before she had no identified goals to review her performance against. The campaign for comprehensive sex education has produced the most number of candidates running for School Committee in recent history. These issues are now covered in every debate and issues that the School Committee will have to face no matter the outcome.

VICTOR: That there is an awful lot of Major Arcana going on. You don’t even need to know much tarot to feel what April’s talking about. But yeah, I totally agree that the old guard, in both elections, will be largely left intact, with maybe one or two new faces, but the political forces which have spurred so many of these challengers, even the more quixotic ones, won’t vanish once the ballots are counted. The mere presence of so many new candidates, and such a diverse group at that, in the field is an indication that there are numerous communities that feel that their voices need to be heard. Even if those candidates don’t win, if they remain engaged in the political process, they can have a significant influence on what’s to come.



What does this election, generally, mean for the next two years in Worcester?

APRIL: Both old and new leaders will fail to see the whole picture and make political decisions that don’t consider all of the economic impacts on communities. The mix of new energy with decisive energy will be sure to confound previous stagnation, and may one day inspire more grounded leaders to rise up to actualize the goals that are still in the brainstorming process right now.



Key cards in this reading include the Five of Pentacles, indicating economic strife in some areas; the Page of Swords, representing new, decisive leadership; and the King of Swords, representing experienced leadership.



BILL: OK, so what I’m reading is that politically, Worcester’s going to go through a little team-building period. They won’t be that good, but they’re looking down the road at a rock star team. I’ll take it. I think Worcester could use that right now in its pool of elected officials.



BRENDAN: I’m not liking this Five Pentacles thing. Maybe slower than hoped for growth over the last few decades makes us a little less vulnerable to these economic forces? This is the tarot version of a cliffhanger, basically two more years of perpetually impending doom. Tune in next time …



MARIANNA: Many blind spots still exist within city government, and even with the best of intentions, more harm will be done. Leadership within the next two years could mean the difference between staying the course of perpetuating racial, gender and economic inequities or reducing and repairing that harm for the betterment of all in our city. Some decisions in the next two years have the capacity of impacting that trajectory including signing a Community Benefits Agreement (CBA) for the new ballpark so city residents can reap the greatest benefits of that major development project.



VICTOR: In the interest of fairness, I don’t think any politician can ever see the whole picture of an economy. There are just too many variables, too many things outside even city government’s control. For example, I’m pretty sure Ed Augustus Jr. never sat in his office and plotted the downfall of the Cove Music Hall and the Dive Bar, but those closings have everything to do with the ripple effects of development. But I like the idea that “the mix of new energy with decisive energy will be sure to confound previous stagnation.” It points to positive change, and positive change rarely ever reveals itself the way we think it’s going to. Change is always, in the end, something of a surprise that, in hindsight, was inevitable. We just didn’t notice.



