The latest info on Redskins quarterback Alex Smith’s injury sounds gruesome, but it makes medical sense and backs up our initial analysis.

A compound fracture is a term that is not used in medicine any more but refers to an open fracture. That is a fracture where the sharp edge of the broken bone pokes through the skin from the inside out.


This creates an infection risk, which is why Smith underwent immediate surgery to lessen that chance. Given the quick surgical debridement and antibiotics, the chances of infection for Smith are less than one percent.

Given the spiral fracture, the fracture surface is greater. That means there is a much higher chance of healing – one I would put at 99 percent.

The rehab is tough, and there will be associated muscle damage. But it is nothing Smith can’t overcome.


There is compartment syndrome risk where there is excess swelling/bleeding in the leg, but that is a low probability given this type of fracture. More likely is loss of motion or stiffness, which hard work should overcome.

There are many similarities to Joe Theismann’s infamous tibia/fibia fracture in 1985, but there are differences, many of which we discussed Sunday.

Further, Theismann’s injury was likely a transverse fracture from a direct blow where Smith’s was a rotational force that caused a spiral fracture and involves the ankle, as that is where the rotational force is applied.


Smith’s fracture actually appears to be somewhere between Theismann’s true transverse tib/fib fracture and the ankle fractures suffered by Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and Titans QB Marcus Mariota in 2016.

Much has changed since 33 years ago when Theismann’s career was ended by a sack by Lawrence Taylor. Surgery techniques have improved, as have rehab techniques.

Mariota and Carr recovered well in an offseason. Patriots fullback James Devlin and Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett had true tib/fib fractures with a full recovery.


This is why I expect Smith, despite the fact he will be 35 next season, to continue his career. It has been reported he will need 6-8 months for recovery, which fits with my initial 6-9 month recovery timeline projection.

Even though Monday’s revelations make Smith’s injury seem worse than initially reported, it really should not be seen that way. Any injury of this magnitude makes it potentially career threatening, but I am confident Smith can play again if he chooses.