Mesoscale Discussion 0237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Areas affected...Portions of central and north central Oklahoma and southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271800Z - 272000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms should persist for the next 1-2 hours and may pose a threat for hail and gusty winds across central and north central OK and southeast KS. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing across west central OK within a mid level confluence zone are propagating into central and north central OK along a MUCAPE gradient. Although these storms are rooted around 700 mb, MUCAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg along with 55-60 knots of effective bulk wind shear will allow the strongest storms, especially those further south into central OK where better quality instability is located, to pose a threat for hail. Mid to low level lapse rates between 6.5-7 C/km (per recent RAP forecast soundings) and a low level dry layer above the surface suggest conditions are somewhat favorable for downdrafts to reach the surface with gusty winds. Although much of this activity is expected to struggle as individual cells propagate north into a less favorable air mass, there is a possibility that the southern storms that can linger into the late afternoon hours may strengthen and become surface based as instability increases later today. This will be conditional on whether currently elevated storms can develop a strong/deep enough low level cold pool to lift near surface parcels and utilize the better quality moisture in place across central and north central OK on the southeast side of the surface dryline. While this potential will be monitored through mid/late afternoon, no watch is currently expected. ..Moore/Thompson.. 03/27/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35199871 35499867 35959850 36469827 36839813 36979789 37169747 37629622 37649540 37499507 37039527 36279605 35879632 35419677 35189737 34939786 34769841 34729857 34879862 35199871