Trudeau approval soars

Gender balanced cabinet very popular

TORONTO November 8th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1256 Canadian voters three weeks after the general election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s approval has soared to 6-in-10 (60%) and a net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) of an unprecedentedly high +40. Approval is especially characteristic of the oldest (67%), females (65%), the least wealthy (71%), in Atlantic Canada (76%) but not so much in Alberta (36%), among Francophones (66%) more than Anglophones (58%) and among the best educated (post grad - 64%). Approval is almost universal among Liberals (87%) but is also characteristic of more than one half of New Democrats (53%). Approval for Trudeau is up 11 points since the week before the election (October 7 - 49%) and his net score is up 26 points from +14.





Tom Mulcair has the approval of one third of voters (34%), down considerably from one half on October 7 (49%). His net favourable score is down 20 points, to -5 from +15.

Overwhelming Liberal victory, majority if election held today

If an election were held today, the Liberals would take well more than half the vote (55%), to one quarter for the Conservatives (25%) and just more than one tenth for the NDP (12%). The Greens (3%) and Bloc Quebecois (4%) would take the share they realized in the recent election, and very few would vote for other parties (1%). If these results were projected up to seats in Parliament, the Liberals would take an overwhelming majority of 276, followed distantly by 57 for the Conservatives, 5 for the NDP and none for any other party.

Of note, more than one third of those who voted NDP just 3 weeks ago say they would now vote Liberal if an election were held today (38%).

Three quarters satisfied with electoral outcome

As many as three quarters of voters are satisfied with the outcome of the election (72%), and more than 4-in-10 are “very satisfied” (42%). Three quarters of New Democrats are also satisfied (72%) as are even one quarter of Conservative voters (22%).





Large majority approve of cabinet choices

More than 7-in-10 voters approve of Prime Minister Trudeau’s cabinet (71%), among them, virtually all Liberals (88%), 7-in-10 New Democrats (71%) and even more than one third of Conservatives (36%).





Three quarters approve of gender balanced cabinet

Three quarters of voters approve of Prime Minister Trudeau’s gender balanced cabinet (74%), and this is especially the case among females (84%) rather than males (63%). Close to 4-in-10 Conservatives approve of this development (39%) as do the vast majority of New Democrats (77%) and Liberals (87%).





Bill C-51 first legislation to be repealed – voters

The largest group of voters select the anti-terrorism legislation Bill C-51 as the law which needs to be repealed first (27%), followed Bill C-24, which allows the government to revoke citizenship of those convicted of terrorism (18%). Bill C-36 (anti-prostitution - 11%) and Bill C-377 (union transparency - 8%) are not seen to be as high on the list.





Proportional Representation preferred in electoral reform

When voters are asked their approval of three common electoral systems, Proportional Representation (PR) is preferred (52%) to either the current First Past The Post (FPTP) system (40%), or the Ranked Ballot or Alternate Vote (AV) system (31%).

Peter MacKay seen as best Conservative Leader

Among the general public (29%) and also among Conservative voters (32%), former MP and cabinet minister Peter MacKay is seen as the best choice to lead the Conservative Party when the interim leader steps down. Other leading candidates among Conservatives include John Baird (18%), Jason Kenney (16%) and Rona Ambrose (12%). Michelle Rempel (7%), Rob Nicholson and Kellie Leitch (4% each) do not fare as well.





“This is more a love-in than a honeymoon. These are approval ratings usually reserved for popular mayors, not Prime Ministers in a very competitive partisan environment. What is surprising is the extent to which the goodwill crosses the aisle, It is also instructive to note that Proportional Representation leads the electoral reform derby, probably because it is the easiest to explain in a paragraph. The Prime Minister’s gender equal cabinet is a very popular choice,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.