Poll: Rahm leads Garcia in Chicago runoff

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel holds a 14-point lead over his rival in an early-April runoff, according to a new Chicago Tribune poll released Friday that shows both candidates modestly improving on their performances in last month’s election.

The poll shows Emanuel leading Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, 51 percent to 37 percent, with 11 percent of voters still undecided. In the first round of voting on Feb. 24, Emanuel led Garcia, 46 percent to 34 percent.


Emanuel is buoyed by continued gains among African-American voters, who were primed to cost him a second term before the mayor’s multimillion-dollar television ad blitz. Now, Emanuel holds a 21-point lead among black voters, 52 percent to 31 percent. That’s equal to Emanuel’s advantage among white voters.

Garcia does have a 24-point lead among Hispanic voters, 58 percent to 34 percent, the poll shows.

While Emanuel holds a statistically significant lead and clears the 50-percent threshold in this poll, events this week show the race is still in flux.

The poll was conducted March 6-11 by APC Research, surveying 712 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Garcia has made little headway in his attempts to unite African Americans and Hispanics behind his candidacy, the poll indicates. But with three-and-a-half weeks to go until the April 7 runoff, the challenger is courting black voters. Earlier this week, Garcia rolled out an endorsement from self-funding businessman Willie Wilson, the third-place finisher in last month’s five-candidate election, who earned 11 percent of the vote in February. He’s also been endorsed by the Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr.

But Emanuel still has the support of President Barack Obama, who came back to his hometown just before the first election to try to boost Emanuel to a majority of the vote — which would have averted the runoff.

Garcia is also trying to galvanize progressives upset with Emanuel’s education policies and ties to big business. On Thursday, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean backed Garcia.

While Democracy for America, the organization Dean helped found, was already endorsing Garcia, Dean’s personal statement cited Garcia’s “people-powered campaign” and added to the long-running feud between Dean and Emanuel that dates back to the 2006 election cycle, when Dean chaired the Democratic National Committee and Emanuel led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

This article tagged under: Rahm Emanuel