The Government needs to act on its climate change research now, or we’ll be monitoring our own extinction As we are learning to our cost, what happens in the Arctic has major implications for both politics and the climate of the rest of the world

The Arctic has been described by former UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon as “ground zero” for climate change. The communities living there are quite literally on the frontline.

It was with that in mind that I joined a delegation from Parliament’s Environmental Audit Committee last week to visit Svalbard in the High North to speak to local people, meet scientists based there, and witness some of the impact of climate change firsthand.

As part of our Inquiry into the rapid warming of the Arctic, we wanted to understand better what more the UK, as the Arctic’s nearest neighbour, should be doing to help protect this vulnerable region. By the end of this trip it was apparent there is a huge appetite for the UK to step up and make a positive difference to this fragile place.

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What we saw

Arriving in Longyearbyen, the main town on Svalbard – one of just three permanent settlements in the archipelago, on the very edge of the Northernmost inhabited region of the Arctic – home to polar bears, snow-covered mountains, blue sea ice and endless frozen tundra – the very last thing thing we expected to see was evidence of the coal-mining industry. The same industry that, ironically, once provided the lifeblood for communities here, but now, through the role it plays in global warming, is threatening their very existence.

Yet high on the slopes above the town, with its estimated 3,000 inhabitants and 3,000 polar bears, lie the dilapidating remains of the coal industry which gave birth to it. Gantries which once carried gondolas of coal to the harbour are rusting and collapsing, while derelict shacks and deserted building works hunker against the scree.

The first mine was established more than 100 years ago, and over the period since, Norway has pumped vast sums of money into the Svalbard coal industry. We learned the Russians too are keeping mines open just down the coast in Barentsburg to maintain its strategic geopolitical presence in a NATO country, Norway.

All this may at first seem distant from our lives in the UK. But, as we are beginning to learn to our cost, what happens in the Arctic has major implications for both the politics and the climate of the rest of the world. Our own Government’s actions have a direct impact on life there, as set out in a new policy framework for the region, Beyond the Ice, released earlier this year.

Today’s Arctic is a new environment

The Arctic is still a cold place, but it’s warming faster than any other region on Earth. Over the past 50 years, the Arctic’s temperature has risen by more than twice the global average. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, which trap heat, trigger a cascade of feedbacks that collectively amplify Arctic warming. Today’s Arctic is a new environment, evolving rapidly and in unexpected ways.

As if to prove the point, unprecedented rainstorms prevented us from reaching Ny-Alesund, where scientists from around the world gather the latest data on changes to the Arctic environment.

There is much for these scientists to consider. Greater rainfall, for example, means faster melting of the permafrost and a greater release of methane emissions, a stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Earlier this summer, parts of the Arctic circle recorded temperatures above 32 C. Just two weeks ago came news that some of the oldest and thickest sea ice has started to break up, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen all year. This unprecedented phenomenon has occurred twice this year due to warm winds and a climate-change driven heat-wave in the northern hemisphere.

‘The Arctic as we know it is being replaced by a warmer, wetter, wilder environment, with the prospect of the Arctic Ocean being largely free of summer sea ice as early as the late 2030s’

With each additional year of data, it becomes increasingly clear that the Arctic as we know it is being replaced by a warmer, wetter, wilder environment, with the prospect of the Arctic Ocean being largely free of summer sea ice as early as the late 2030s. The impacts on wildlife – polar bears struggling to find food when they can’t access the ice, for example – are well documented. Just last year Arctic indigenous leaders came to Westminster to explain that sea-ice loss is affecting their ability to travel, hunt and fish sustainably, and to urge the UK Government to do more to tackle the climate crisis.

But melting sea ice also means even greater access to fossil fuels. In 2008, the US Geological Survey estimated that the Arctic holds 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of gas – worth around £12 trillion. As ice melts, it will facilitate greater access to these resources – which, if companies are allowed to exploit them, will drive yet more warming.

Norway is finally acting

The Norwegian Government is, belatedly, doing something. It decided two years ago to not just shut down most of its Svalbard mining operations, but to dismantle the two main mines where significant deposits of coal remain.

And in an exquisite about turn, Norway’s own Sovereign Wealth Fund, built on the back of fossil fuels, has decided to start divesting from oil and gas because they are judged too risky for the future.

Whether that means they and other Arctic states will forego the temptation of further exploitation of the region’s fossil fuels remains to be seen. Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark all have their sights set on the Lomonosov Ridge, for example – an underwater mountain chain that stretches across the centre of the Arctic Ocean, where around one quarter of the Earth’s remaining fossil fuel resources lie.

At the same time, there’s been a groundswell of commitments not to drill for oil and gas in the Arctic. In December 2016, Prime Minister Trudeau put all Canadian Arctic waters indefinitely off limits to future offshore oil and gas licensing, while Russia has a moratorium on new offshore oil and gas development.

A number of individual companies seem also to have become more reluctant about Arctic drilling. The French oil giant Total has written off drilling for oil anywhere within the Arctic ice pack, the Scottish oil and gas company Cairn Energy has indefinitely halted all its activity in Greenland, and the Anglo-Dutch company Shell has dramatically retreated from Alaskan waters after a number of failed attempts.

How the UK could help

Whether these moratoria will survive an increase in the price of oil is unknown. But the UK Government could help by taking a stronger position.

Beyond the Ice does commit to sustainable development in the region and acknowledges the need to cut emissions but, paradoxically, it also continues to look to Arctic oil and gas for energy security. It even accepts demand for oil and gas “will require exploration of new potential resources, with the Arctic, with its significant hydrocarbon reserves, potentially playing a major role”.

‘We’ll be in danger of going down in history as the species that spent all its time monitoring its own extinction – rather than taking critical steps to avert it.’

This is deeply worrying. The accelerating impact of climate change in the Arctic underlines the pressing need for policy coherence across Whitehall, and for the Government to match its excellence in scientific research in the region with serious commitments – and practical policies – to meet our international climate obligations.

If it doesn’t, we’ll be in danger of going down in history as the species that spent all its time monitoring its own extinction – rather than taking critical steps to avert it.

Caroline Lucas is the MP (Green Party) for Brighton Pavillion