First nate silver has numerous times said that all historical data suggests a switch from rv to lv should not be worth more than 1.5 to 2 percent change. In fact, the polls that whiffed the most in 2008 and 2010 were ones in which their likely voter margin was greater than that. Both Ras and Gallup had better numbers in their RV models than LV because of this.

Second, A president does not lose an election when his approval rating is 53 percent and his disapproval is 42! It does not happen. That is historical fact, and can be seen in not just presidential races but state races.

Third, the 3 day approval rating keeps getting higher as Romney high point numbers fade. That means that most likely Obama will make up a lot of ground as those thur, friday numbers go away.

fourth, the house of ras has it tied. Why is this significant? the problem with the house of ras is that by weighing for party id he doesnt capture a true snapshot of the electorate. but at the same time bc of this his poll is less inclined to fast movements in one direction or another with the news cycle. what his poll tells you isnt the state of the race, but the fact that obama hasnt lost democratic or independent voters. Romney has just gained repubs back in the fold.

keep calm and carry on. As dem enthusiasm comes back and romney high fades, this race will adjust to where it always should have been, a 2-3 point obama advantage. its going to be close but we are still the favorite.

Update: someone asked about the approval rating argument here is a link to nate explaining the hisorical data

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

basically no incumbent has ever lost with an approval rating of 49 or higher.

two things to remember as to why there is a difference between approval rating and voting preferences. one the approval rating is 3 day rolling average and has lost the thur sample. as we lose the thur and fri samples from the 7 day tracker we will see the two numbers come closer together.

second, and more encouraging for dems, is that it implicitly implies that some of those undecided voters are probably approving of obamas job. that means that we are more likely to pick them up as voters as the election gets closer. you saw this in 2004 as within the final week the approval numbers and election numbers moved toward each other. bush net approval was basically his margin of victory.

thanks everyone for recs! one final note to be positive above. Notice once again the CNN poll is Obama plus 4 lv but plus 10 rv. Like ive said and nate has said, come election day any lv screen that changes dynamics by more than 2 percent is usually flawed.

One final note to be positive above. I will write a diary later to fully explain but one thing that all polls are ignoring is that because of the great recession some states have undergone more dramatic demographic shifts than other states. The net result is that both Neveda and Colorado have increased their share of minorities in the electorate by 9 and 5 points respectively since 08. Oh and what two states had dem senators behind all the polls but yet somehow survive election day? Colorado and Neveda of course. You can put two and two together yourselves and make a logical conclusion what happened. Thanks once again. Lets gotv!