Where will the next $10 trillion of GDP come from?

WORLD GDP over the past 12 months was about $65 trillion. In the year to September 2013, global output will be about $10 trillion bigger, according to the IMF's projections.* But where will that next $10 trillion be added? That depends on the size of a country's economy, its growth rate and the appreciation of its real exchange rate. Focusing on any one of those things, to the exclusion of the others, can be a misleading guide to a market's potential. For example, China's economy in 2013 will still be smaller than America's. But because it is growing so fast, it will add $1.65 trillion compared to America's $1.43 trillion. Japan—a slow-growing economy—will contribute $410 billion, less than Russia ($698 billion) or Brazil ($461 billion). But because Japan is so big, it will still contribute more than India ($392 billion).





* This sentence has been clarified. GDP is of course a "flow" not a "stock". It measures the flow of production over a period of time, usually a year. Over the past 12 months, the world economy has produced about $65-trillion worth of goods and services. Over the 12 months to September 2013, it will produce roughly $75 trillion-worth. The chart shows where that extra $10 trillion will be produced.