By Alan Steinberg

The impeachment of President Donald J. Trump by the Democratic House of Representatives is now a virtual certainty. His removal from office by the Republican-controlled Senate will require that at least 20 Republican senators join with the 47 senators who caucus with the Democrats.

According to Republican consultant Mike Murphy and former Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, there are at least 30 Republican senators who would vote for Trump’s removal in a secret ballot. There would have to be political cover to enable these secret Trump-loathing senators to openly vote for Trump’s ouster. Those circumstances are now at hand.

The Donald Trump road to becoming the first American president to be removed from office by the Senate is now in its third, and possibly final stage. Throughout this process, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has demonstrated supreme legal, policy, and political judgment, which will earn her an historic place as one of America’s foremost House speakers.

The first stage focused on allegations of Trump’s obstruction of justice, as set forth in the Mueller Report. The obstruction case against Trump is actually much stronger than the case that compelled the resignation of former President Richard Nixon. The public continued to oppose impeachment of Trump, however, and as a matter of wise discretion, Pelosi forestalled any impeachment action.

The second stage involved the powerful and irrefutable evidence of Trump’s violations of the Constitutional Domestic Emoluments Clause and the Foreign Emoluments Clause. While the polls reflected a resulting upsurge in opposition to the president’s reelection, they also revealed a continuing majority resistance to impeachment. Given the virtual impossibility of the Senate removing Trump from office, Pelosi wisely continued to refrain from any impeachment inquiry.

The present third stage involves the most serious charges yet of criminal misconduct in office and Constitutional abuses of power, namely Trump’s solicitation of an illegal foreign campaign contribution from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, to wit, the assistance of the Ukraine government in digging up dirt against Joe Biden, the front runner for the Democratic 2020 presidential nomination, and his son, Hunter. These acts may also give rise to federal charges against the president of bribery and extortion.

At this point, Pelosi correctly recognized that while the Senate may still not remove Trump from office, the Constitution and historical precedent compelled the House to hold the president accountable and commence a presidential impeachment inquiry, regardless of what impact this may have on the reelection prospects of Democratic House members newly elected in 2018. Fortunately, these members by and large have been among the strongest supporters of Trump’s impeachment.

And the recently commenced impeachment inquiry has been politically facilitated in the House by the recent Fox News polls showing not only majority support for Trump’s impeachment but also at least 50 percent support for Trump’s removal from office by the Senate.

Finally, political cover has arrived for Republican senators to support Trump’s removal from office, namely, his withdrawal of assistance to our Kurdish allies who played an absolutely critical role in our war against ISIS. It is argued that Trump’s abandonment of the Kurds, leaving them to their slaughter by both the Turks and ISIS, while an act of horrendous foreign policy, does not per se constitute an impeachable offense. This is irrelevant, however, as this act demonstrates conclusively Trump’s gross unfitness for office.

There may be one more circumstance that results in skyrocketing support for Trump’s removal. New York State Attorney General Letitia James and Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance, Jr. are considering prosecution of Trump for falsification of business records in order to commit tax and insurance fraud.

While these state prosecutions are not barred by any federal laws precluding federal prosecutions of the president, Trump’s sycophantic Attorney General Bill Barr would likely launch federal litigation to block state prosecutions of the president. Such litigation would be greeted with repugnance by an electorate who does not believe that the president is above the law. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts would rule against any such Trumpian litigation and emerge as a hero of the Constitution.

By the end of November, the House will have impeached Donald Trump, and a sufficient number of Republican senators will have switched to support for removal of the president. Yet, as noted by former close Trump business associate Barbara Res, Trump will avoid the disgrace of impeachment by resigning and making a deal for his non-prosecution.

As he leaves, Trump will claim that he was our nation’s finest president and that he was a victim of “fake news” and the “deep state.” Our long Trumpian national nightmare, however, will be over.

Alan J. Steinberg formerly served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.

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