Farmers worry about trade, hope President Trump will hear their concerns

Massive piles of corn across Iowa help explain why trade is so important to Mark Recker, president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association.

Iowa farmers grew 2.54 billion bushels of corn last year, the second-largest crop in the state's history after 2016.

“We grow a lot of corn. We do a great job of it. A lot of times, we grow ourselves into surplus,” Recker said. “We manage that surplus by developing markets overseas.”

But changes in trade policy could threaten farmers across the nation.

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More than pestilence, dying livestock or rotting crops, trade and immigration reform are front of mind for many American farmers, who have seen profit margins dwindle in recent decades.

As President Donald Trump heads to Nashville on Monday to speak before the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual conference, that's the message the nation's farmers want him to hear.

“People have to understand that for us to do this we have to make a profit, and the price of corn is the same as what it was in 1976,” said Brandon Whitt, who farms 2,600 acres southeast of Nashville. “Trade is huge. It gives us a place to go with our products."

Farms, trade and NAFTA

In Iowa, farmers are especially worried about President Trump’s efforts to renegotiate the North America Free Trade Agreement.

Trump has threatened to withdraw if the U.S. can’t reach a winning deal.

Mexico is the biggest buyer of U.S. corn, spending $2.6 billion in 2016.

Altogether, the country bought nearly $18 billion of American farm products, with corn, soybeans, pork and dairy leading its purchases.

That hits many of Iowa’s lead ag products: The state is nation’s largest pork and egg producer, and ranks second for soybean production.

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Loss of NAFTA “could be catastrophic,” said Recker, who farms in northeast Iowa.

Mexico is already looking to other countries for food in case the U.S. withdraws from NAFTA, said Dermot Hayes, an Iowa State University agricultural economist.

“They’re talking to the Europeans, the Argentinians to set up a backup plan,” he said. “Those talks would only intensify” if the U.S. decides to withdraw from NAFTA.

Loss of a trade pact would primarily affect U.S. trade with Mexico. The U.S. and Canada would fall back to a pre-existing trade agreement with near-zero duties, Hayes said.

Mexico needs food from other countries to keep their food costs from spiking, Hayes said.

Ten percent of U.S. pork is exported to Mexico and 5 percent of beef, eggs, poultry and dairy.

“The people who are most concerned are in the upper Midwest. They have the products that Mexico lacks,” he said.

Loss of NAFTA would hit grain and livestock markets at a time when farmers are already suffering.

U.S. farm income tumbled 50 percent along with falling corn and soybean prices from 2013 to 2016. Last year’s income is projected to be about 3 percent higher at $63 billion, primarily on stronger livestock profits.

Nationally, an estimated 50,000 ag jobs would be lost if the trade deal with the United States' two biggest trade partners falls apart.

Larry Sailer, an Iowa Farm Bureau Federation member traveling to Nashville, believes Trump’s team can get a better deal for farmers.

“Everyone is afraid of change. But it can represent opportunities,” said Sailer, who farms in north central Iowa.

“I hope the deal can be as good or better for farmers,” said Sailer, who also wants to hear the president talk about cutting regulations.

“Trade is good for all three countries. None of us want it to be shut down. But we can tweak it,” he said.

Farms and the immigration debate

But many farmers say the problem isn’t NAFTA, but finding workers to harvest crops and a market to buy them.

Lake Elliott operates the Robert Elliott and Sons Angus cattle farm in Adams, Tenn., where his family has been breeding cattle since 1935.

His family uses 10 migrant workers every year from Mexico, mainly to work the fields where they also grow tobacco.

He said his family has at times been concerned about the president’s comments on immigration reform and building a wall on the border with Mexico, but is hopeful that Trump will be sympathetic to farmers’ needs.

Each year, farmers nationwide submit applications for seasonal workers from other countries.

They must gain clearance from the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, provide housing and cover visa and transportation costs for each of their workers and prove they have advertised jobs locally.

The process is riddled with hurdles and yet the demand for seasonal workers has more than doubled in the past five years as local workers become more scarce.

In 2017, farm operators submitted applications requesting more than 206,000 seasonal workers who rely on H-2A visas, compared to requests for more than 90,000 workers in 2012, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

Hear the president speak

President Trump is scheduled to speak at the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 99th Annual Convention, a conference being held Friday through Wednesday at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center.

Trump is expected to speak around 2:30 p.m. Monday.

You can watch the president's speech live on the Tennessean's website.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and the Canadian agriculture minister also are expected at the conference.

— This article is a joint venture of the Des Moines Register and the Tennessean. Jamie McGee of The Tennessean contributed to this report.