PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Gov. Gina Raimondo heads into the final weeks of her 2018 campaign for reelection with a commanding 14-point lead over Republican challenger Allan Fung, according to a newly released poll conducted for The Providence Journal, Rhode Island Public Radio and ABC6.

Democrat Raimondo leads the pack with 48 percent of the potential vote, compared to 34 percent for Fung, the Republican mayor of Cranston. Independent candidate Joe Trillo, the former GOP lawmaker and chairman of Donald Trump's 2016 Rhode Island campaign, has 5 percent support, and other candidates in the race barely registered.

Raimondo is not the only incumbent with an edge in Rhode Island, where Democrats dominate the five top state offices, the congressional delegation and the legislature.

U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse leads his Republican challenger Robert Flanders, a former Rhode Island Supreme Court Justice, 57 percent to 33 percent. In this race, few were still undecided.

House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello seems to be an exception to the pro-incumbent, Democratic tilt.

Arguably the most powerful politician in the state, Democrat Mattiello — who is facing a challenge from Republican Steven Frias — only needs to win reelection in his conservative-leaning Cranston House district. Nevertheless, only 21 percent of voters statewide who were surveyed approve of the job he is doing as speaker, while 38 percent disapprove. The numbers on both ends go up by 2 percent with the inclusion of those leaning in either direction. More than a third were unsure.

The responses were similar across party lines: only 22 percent of Democrats, 24 percent of Independents, and 27 percent of Republicans approve of Mattiello's job performance. And despite his well-publicized resistance to legislation that would put an abortion-rights guarantee into state law, just 29 percent of self-identified Catholics approve of the job he is doing at the State House, while 41 percent disapprove. (These numbers include the 1 or 2 percent leaning in either direction.)

For what it's worth: legislative leaders have traditionally scored low on statewide polls, that tend to reflect how people feel, in general, about the General Assembly.

Nonetheless, just about half (51 percent) of the registered Rhode Island voters who were surveyed think the state is headed in the right direction.

The survey of 561 randomly selected Rhode Island registered voters — including 503 "likely" voters — was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center between Sept. 27 and Oct. 6. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POLL

"None of these numbers surprise me too much,'' said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. "Rhode Island is a heavily Democratic state and this will be a good year for Democrats with a Republican President."

Asked about a recent WPRI-Roger Williams University poll that showed Raimondo leading Fung 43 percent to 36 percent, Smith said "you can’t really say that Raimondo expanded her lead over Fung. It is within the margin of error for the two polls."

"That said, it is not surprising that she is consolidating her support among Democrats as we get closer to the election,'' Smith said. And clearly: "Trillo’s remaining in the race is hurting Fung somewhat."

"But Fung and Raimondo have [both] significant problems with the electorate — 43 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Raimondo and 41 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Fung. This is going to make it difficult for either to move very much and I expect a slog from here until Election Day. Raimondo’s and Fung’s supporters are pretty solid behind them. ... Trillo backers could move. If they do, they will likely move to Fung."

Fung's campaign, in response to the poll, said that it "flat out rejects the results of this survey."

"Our internal polling has this race within the margin, and any poll that takes 10 days to get a sample raises serious questions about its veracity," said campaign spokesman Andrew Augustus.

"The fact of the matter is, the people of Rhode Island are fed up with the direction of our state and Governor Raimondo's leadership. They are demanding change every day and our survey data reflects that,'' Augustus said.

Similarly, Trillo's spokeswoman Raina Smith said: "We do not believe this number based on the outpouring of support we have in the field, and based our own internal polling which shows us considerably higher."

She would not disclose the campaign's own numbers which, she said, were produced by volunteers which is why there is no polling expense reflected in the spending report Trillo filed with the Board of Elections this week.

The Raimondo campaign, through its spokesman Mike Raia, said, in part: "Polls go up. Polls go down. The Governor and her team are focused on doing everything we can to continue bringing the change that Rhode Islanders need and to earn the support of Rhode Islanders."

The survey found high interest among the state’s potential voters in the midterm election. Three-quarters told the pollsters they are “extremely” or “very interested” in the election; 9 out of 10 plan to vote.

Governor’s race:

Rhode Islanders are divided on Raimondo’s performance as governor. About 48 percent approve, 40 percent disapprove, 8 percent gave no opinion.

More have a generally positive opinion of Raimondo (46 percent) than Fung (40 percent). Negative opinions run close for both her (43 percent) and him (41 percent).

Trillo is seen far less favorably. Only 15 percent have a favorable opinion of him, 14 percent are neutral, 38 percent have an unfavorable view and 33 percent told the pollsters they don't know enough to say.

In simple head-to-head matchup, Raimondo led with 48 percent to 34 percent for Fung, 5 percent for Trillo and 1 percent or less for the other largely unknown contenders who include: Moderate Party candidate Bill Gilbert, Compassion Party candidate Anne Armstrong and Independent candidate Luiz Daniel Munoz.

When the undecided voters were asked who they were leaning toward, Raimondo had an overall 49 percent, Fung 36 percent, and Trillo 6 percent.

If there was ever any doubt who had the most to lose with multiple candidates in the race, the pollsters asked voters who would get their vote if their preferred candidate was not running; 53 percent named Fung, and only 9 percent named Raimondo.

U.S. Senate:

The survey found that Whitehouse's challenger, Flanders, is still relatively unknown despite his legal résumé.

Despite Flanders' attempts to portray Whitehouse as out-of-touch, the poll found that more than half of those surveyed (55 percent) have a favorable impression of the two-term U.S. senator; about 35 percent have a negative impression of him.

Less than a third (31 percent) have a favorable impression of Flanders, 19 percent have an unfavorable opinion and three in eight (38 percent) have no impression at all.

"Look," said Flanders' campaign spokesman Patrick Reynolds, "the bottom line is the campaign strategy is the same going forward as it has been since Judge Flanders launched his campaign: meeting Rhode Islanders and hearing their hopes and their concerns for our future. Judge Flanders gets his opinions from the folks he meets out at the countless festivals and events that he has attended across this state, not from some out-of-state pollster."

With reports from Patrick Anderson.

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POLL:

>