Here we are, the penultimate edition of the Power Rankings consensus post. As Chargers fans, we've endured mediocrity not seen in San Diego in a number of years. We've had our ups and downs (hey anyone remember when the Chargers were 3-1? ... anyone?), but we got through it together.

In my 4 years of writing these posts, I have not seen the Chargers rank so low. It's an unusual feeling for me. I'm used to the Chargers being good, and actually playing like they're a good team. We did see flashes of that "good" team on Sunday when the defense racked up 11 sacks against the clowns in New Jersey. They were just 1 sack shy of tying the NFL record, that's something, right?

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking NFC West 12.8194 NFC North 13.2083 NFC South 14.3056 AFC North 15.5833 NFC East 16.2639 AFC East 18.2222 AFC South 20.3472 AFC West 21.2500

The NFC East dropped quit a bit this week as a division, allowing the AFC North to jump ahead of them. No longer is the entire NFC stronger than the AFC. Awww who am I kidding? Of course the NFC is better this year.

Stock Rising

Team Week 16 Average Week 17 Average Difference SDG 24.753 21.388 3.365 MIN 15.792 13.575 2.217 BAL 12.195 10.238 1.957 GB 6.195 4.300 1.895 STL 17.961 16.188 1.773

Hey sweet, Chargers are at the top of this list! Wait, you mean this hurts their draft positioning? Crap.

Stock Falling

Team Week 16 Average Week 17 Average Difference NYG 9.409 12.650 -3.241 SF 2.123 4.975 -2.852 HOU 4.955 7.375 -2.420 TEN 25.234 27.013 -1.779 DAL 13.292 15.050 -1.758

40% of this list is from the NFC east.

Subjective Average

Subjective Broncos 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.100 0.446 Falcons 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2.100 1.809 Patriots 5 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 3.500 0.500 Packers 4 4 4 4 2 3 4 5 3 3 3.600 2.218 Seahawks 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5.200 1.800 49ers 3 6 6 6 6 7 7 4 6 6 5.700 -3.882 Texans 7 9 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7.000 -3.091 Redskins 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 8.500 -0.409 Ravens 10 7 11 8 10 11 8 9 9 8 9.100 1.718 Bengals 11 11 8 10 12 10 10 10 12 11 10.500 1.409 Colts 8 12 10 11 9 13 12 11 10 10 10.600 0.127 Vikings 12 10 14 12 11 9 11 12 11 12 11.400 2.327 Bears 13 13 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 13.100 1.627 Cowboys 14 14 13 14 14 12 13 14 14 14 13.600 -1.873 Giants 15 17 15 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15.300 -4.482 Saints 17 15 22 15 16 16 17 16 16 16 16.600 1.127 Steelers 18 16 16 17 18 17 16 17 19 17 17.100 -1.554 Rams 16 18 17 18 17 18 18 18 17 18 17.500 1.136 Dolphins 19 19 21 20 19 20 19 19 18 19 19.300 0.518 Panthers 20 20 18 19 20 19 20 20 20 20 19.600 0.673 Chargers 21 23 20 22 21 21 22 21 22 21 21.400 2.964 Buccaneers 22 22 19 21 22 24 21 23 21 22 21.700 -1.427 Browns 24 21 25 23 23 22 24 24 23 23 23.200 -0.654 Jets 23 27 24 24 25 26 23 22 26 24 24.400 -1.582 Bills 25 29 26 28 27 23 25 25 24 25 25.700 -0.427 Titans 27 26 23 25 24 25 27 29 27 26 25.900 -1.718 Cardinals 26 25 27 26 26 27 29 27 29 27 26.900 0.282 Lions 28 28 28 27 28 28 26 26 25 28 27.200 0.255 Eagles 29 24 29 29 29 29 28 28 28 29 28.200 0.346 Raiders 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30.000 -0.182 Jaguars 31 31 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31.200 0.073 Chiefs 32 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.800 -0.073

Observations:

Broncos are a near-unanimous pick for the top spot. Do they deserve it? I contend they do not. While a 10-game winning streak is certainly impressive, Denver has had the 7th-easiest schedule this year (according to Football Outsiders) and plays in the AFC West.

CBS really has an axe to grind with the Saints.

Outside of that ranking though, not too many "WTF?" moments, the board is generally in agreement with each other.

Actually, I take that back: ESPN. Seattle just beat the 49ers handily and yet ESPN still has the 49ers as 3 spots higher than the Seahawks? WTF ESPN!?

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Raiders 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 0.000 -0.575 Broncos 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.300 -0.482 Seahawks 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 0.400 0.400 Jaguars 31 31 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.400 -0.045 Chiefs 32 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.400 -0.045 Redskins 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 0.500 0.212 Bears 13 13 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 0.539 -0.881 Falcons 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 0.539 -0.701 Giants 15 17 15 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 0.640 -1.258 Panthers 20 20 18 19 20 19 20 20 20 20 0.663 -1.200 Cowboys 14 14 13 14 14 12 13 14 14 14 0.663 -1.047 Rams 16 18 17 18 17 18 18 18 17 18 0.671 -0.210 Texans 7 9 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 0.775 -0.308 Dolphins 19 19 21 20 19 20 19 19 18 19 0.781 -1.117 Chargers 21 23 20 22 21 21 22 21 22 21 0.800 -0.498 Packers 4 4 4 4 2 3 4 5 3 3 0.800 0.225 Patriots 5 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 0.806 -0.047 Steelers 18 16 16 17 18 17 16 17 19 17 0.943 0.445 Browns 24 21 25 23 23 22 24 24 23 23 1.077 -0.799 Lions 28 28 28 27 28 28 26 26 25 28 1.077 -0.296 Bengals 11 11 8 10 12 10 10 10 12 11 1.118 -0.857 49ers 3 6 6 6 6 7 7 4 6 6 1.187 0.471 Cardinals 26 25 27 26 26 27 29 27 29 27 1.221 0.108 Buccaneers 22 22 19 21 22 24 21 23 21 22 1.269 -0.387 Vikings 12 10 14 12 11 9 11 12 11 12 1.281 -0.005 Ravens 10 7 11 8 10 11 8 9 9 8 1.300 -0.396 Colts 8 12 10 11 9 13 12 11 10 10 1.428 0.566 Eagles 29 24 29 29 29 29 28 28 28 29 1.470 0.688 Jets 23 27 24 24 25 26 23 22 26 24 1.497 -0.831 Titans 27 26 23 25 24 25 27 29 27 26 1.640 -0.840 Bills 25 29 26 28 27 23 25 25 24 25 1.735 0.079 Saints 17 15 22 15 16 16 17 16 16 16 1.908 0.198

Observations:

Huh ... unanimous agreement with the Raiders as the 3rd-worst team in the NFL.

I told you the rankings were pretty consistent, right? Well, let's compare this week to week 1: Week 1: Lowest: 0.904; Highest: 3.182 Week 17: Lowest: 0.000; Highest: 1.908

In fact, in Week 1, only 12 teams had a lower Standard Deviation that the team with the highest Standard Deviation in week 17. I call that "agreement"

Interesting that the teams in the middle of the pack are actually more consistently-ranked that teams closer to the top- and bottom-10.

Objective Average

Objective Seahawks 1 3 2 2 5 2 1 1 2.125 1.589 Broncos 2 1 1 3 9 5 4 2 3.375 -0.232 Patriots 3 9 4 1 4 1 2 7 3.875 -0.304 49ers 5 2 5 4 3 7 3 5 4.250 -1.821 Packers 4 5 3 6 6 8 5 3 5.000 1.571 Falcons 11 6 6 5 1 4 7 4 5.500 0.643 Texans 13 7 9 8 7 3 9 6 7.750 -1.750 Bears 6 12 10 7 8 6 6 8 7.875 1.839 Redskins 8 8 8 12 11 12 11 10 10.000 -0.857 Giants 12 11 14 9 2 11 8 13 10.000 -2.000 Ravens 10 18 12 11 12 9 10 9 11.375 2.196 Bengals 7 15 13 13 17 10 14 11 12.500 0.214 Panthers 9 4 17 17 19 15 16 14 13.875 -0.446 Saints 18 16 11 14 14 13 13 17 14.500 -0.214 Rams 16 10 15 15 10 21 17 15 14.875 2.411 Vikings 19 23 7 10 18 19 12 18 15.750 2.107 Cowboys 15 17 16 16 13 20 15 20 16.500 -1.643 Steelers 17 14 21 18 23 14 19 12 17.250 -0.679 Dolphins 20 19 19 20 22 16 21 16 19.125 /td> 0.732 Buccaneers 23 20 23 19 15 17 18 24 19.875 -1.161 Lions 14 13 27 22 27 18 22 26 21.125 0.018 Chargers 21 24 20 21 20 24 20 21 21.375 3.768 Colts 26 27 18 24 16 23 26 27 23.375 -1.804 Jets 25 21 24 25 24 25 24 22 23.750 -1.607 Browns 22 25 22 26 29 22 25 23 24.250 -0.250 Cardinals 28 30 25 23 26 26 23 19 25.000 -0.286 Bills 24 22 28 27 25 31 27 25 26.125 -1.554 Eagles 27 26 29 28 28 27 28 30 27.875 0.268 Titans 31 29 26 29 21 29 29 31 28.125 -1.839 Raiders 30 28 30 30 30 28 30 28 29.250 0.464 Jaguars 29 32 31 31 31 30 31 29 30.500 0.643 Chiefs 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.875 -0.018

Observations:

The Seattle Seahawks can't seem to get any respect. All but two objective rankings have them as 2nd or better. Not a single subjective site had them higher than 5th.

12 of the top 17 teams are in the NFC. That's 70.5%.

Colts only beat the Chiefs by one touchdown? Better drop their ranking. (Not that I disagree)

Would you actually believe that statistically-speaking, the Chargers are a better team than the Colts?

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Chiefs 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.331 -0.019 Raiders 30 28 30 30 30 28 30 28 0.968 0.268 Jaguars 29 32 31 31 31 30 31 29 1.000 0.650 Eagles 27 26 29 28 28 27 28 30 1.166 0.041 Seahawks 1 3 2 2 5 2 1 1 1.269 -0.009 Jets 25 21 24 25 24 25 24 22 1.392 -0.708 49ers 5 2 5 4 3 7 3 5 1.479 0.751 Chargers 21 24 20 21 20 24 20 21 1.576 -0.898 Packers 4 5 3 6 6 8 5 3 1.581 -0.097 Redskins 8 8 8 12 11 12 11 10 1.658 0.825 Bears 6 12 10 7 8 6 6 8 2.027 -1.587 Dolphins 20 19 19 20 22 16 21 16 2.027 -0.823 Saints 18 16 11 14 14 13 13 17 2.179 1.149 Cowboys 15 17 16 16 13 20 15 20 2.291 -0.065 Browns 22 25 22 26 29 22 25 23 2.332 -0.446 Broncos 2 1 1 3 9 5 4 2 2.497 -0.145 Bills 24 22 28 27 25 31 27 25 2.571 0.581 Patriots 3 9 4 1 4 1 2 7 2.666 0.110 Texans 13 7 9 8 7 3 9 6 2.681 0.477 Falcons 11 6 6 5 1 4 7 4 2.693 -0.304 Ravens 10 18 12 11 12 9 10 9 2.736 -0.923 Bengals 7 15 13 13 17 10 14 11 2.916 -0.094 Buccaneers 23 20 23 19 15 17 18 24 3.018 0.768 Titans 31 29 26 29 21 29 29 31 3.059 -0.310 Cardinals 28 30 25 23 26 26 23 19 3.162 0.248 Rams 16 10 15 15 10 21 17 15 3.370 0.266 Steelers 17 14 21 18 23 14 19 12 3.527 -0.209 Giants 12 11 14 9 2 11 8 13 3.536 0.374 Colts 26 27 18 24 16 23 26 27 3.935 -2.133 Panthers 9 4 17 17 19 15 16 14 4.649 0.246 Vikings 19 23 7 10 18 19 12 18 5.093 -0.748 Lions 14 13 27 22 27 18 22 26 5.255 0.931

Observations:

Team Rankings and BeatGraphs both dropped the Colts significantly this week, and all but 1 other site either kept the Colts ranking the same or dropped the Colts. So therefore, the Colts consistently actually improved this week.

Pretty good consensus on the Seahawks being that good.

The top 3 teams with the lowest deviation are in the AFC, top 3 teams with highest deviation are in the NFC.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Broncos 1.100 3.375 2.238 0.106 Seahawks 5.200 2.125 3.663 1.694 Patriots 3.500 3.875 3.688 0.098 Falcons 2.100 5.500 3.800 1.226 Packers 3.600 5.000 4.300 1.895 49ers 5.700 4.250 4.975 -2.852 Texans 7.000 7.750 7.375 -2.420 Redskins 8.500 10.000 9.250 -0.633 Ravens 9.100 11.375 10.238 1.957 Bears 13.100 7.875 10.488 1.733 Bengals 10.500 12.500 11.500 0.812 Giants 15.300 10.000 12.650 -3.241 Vikings 11.400 15.750 13.575 2.217 Cowboys 13.600 16.500 15.050 -1.758 Saints 16.600 14.500 15.550 0.457 Rams 17.500 14.875 16.188 1.773 Panthers 19.600 13.875 16.738 0.113 Colts 10.600 23.375 16.988 -0.839 Steelers 17.100 17.250 17.175 -1.117 Dolphins 19.300 19.125 19.213 0.625 Buccaneers 21.700 19.875 20.788 -1.294 Chargers 21.400 21.375 21.388 3.365 Browns 23.200 24.250 23.725 -0.452 Jets 24.400 23.750 24.075 -1.594 Lions 27.200 21.125 24.163 0.136 Bills 25.700 26.125 25.913 -0.991 Cardinals 26.900 25.000 25.950 -0.002 Titans 25.900 28.125 27.013 -1.779 Eagles 28.200 27.875 28.038 0.306 Raiders 30.000 29.250 29.625 0.141 Jaguars 31.200 30.500 30.850 0.358 Chiefs 31.800 31.875 31.838 -0.046

Observations:

Overall, the Broncos retain the top spot.

Seahawks are just barely ahead of the Patriots.

Again, 12 of the top 17 teams are from the NFC. That only leaves 4 NFC teams in the remaining bottom 15 teams. I don't know that I've ever seen that much disparity.

That win over the Jets was more impressive than I realized for the Chargers: they jumped over 3.3 spots this week overall.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Chiefs 31.800 31.875 0.373 -0.043 Raiders 30.000 29.250 0.745 0.116 Jaguars 31.200 30.500 0.809 0.393 Chargers 21.400 21.375 1.208 -0.678 Eagles 28.200 27.875 1.353 0.402 Redskins 8.500 10.000 1.384 0.620 Packers 3.600 5.000 1.397 0.200 Dolphins 19.300 19.125 1.474 -0.841 Jets 24.400 23.750 1.487 -0.779 49ers 5.700 4.250 1.508 0.728 Seahawks 5.200 2.125 1.772 -0.017 Browns 23.200 24.250 1.826 -0.552 Patriots 3.500 3.875 1.886 0.146 Texans 7.000 7.750 1.915 0.006 Broncos 1.100 3.375 2.025 0.103 Bills 25.700 26.125 2.157 0.331 Cowboys 13.600 16.500 2.157 -0.348 Saints 16.600 14.500 2.285 0.045 Bengals 10.500 12.500 2.337 -0.125 Ravens 9.100 11.375 2.354 -0.607 Buccaneers 21.700 19.875 2.401 0.346 Steelers 17.100 17.250 2.455 0.040 Cardinals 26.900 25.000 2.483 0.136 Falcons 2.100 5.500 2.498 0.128 Titans 25.900 28.125 2.622 -0.415 Rams 17.500 14.875 2.646 0.489 Bears 13.100 7.875 2.954 -0.551 Giants 15.300 10.000 3.566 0.741 Vikings 11.400 15.750 4.137 -0.145 Panthers 19.600 13.875 4.236 -0.324 Lions 27.200 21.125 4.693 0.463 Colts 10.600 23.375 6.951 0.415

Observations:

Wow, overall the Chiefs, Raiders, Jaguars and Chargers are very consistent in their rankings.

The bottom 5 teams are significantly less consistent in their rankings than the rest of the league.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Colts 10.600 23.375 12.775 1.931 Vikings 11.400 15.750 4.350 0.220 Falcons 2.100 5.500 3.400 1.166 Cowboys 13.600 16.500 2.900 -0.230 Broncos 1.100 3.375 2.275 0.678 Ravens 9.100 11.375 2.275 -0.478 Titans 25.900 28.125 2.225 0.121 Bengals 10.500 12.500 2.000 1.195 Redskins 8.500 10.000 1.500 0.448 Packers 3.600 5.000 1.400 0.647 Browns 23.200 24.250 1.050 -0.405 Texans 7.000 7.750 0.750 -1.341 Bills 25.700 26.125 0.425 1.126 Patriots 3.500 3.875 0.375 0.804 Steelers 17.100 17.250 0.150 -0.876 Chiefs 31.800 31.875 0.075 -0.055 Chargers 21.400 21.375 -0.025 -0.804 Dolphins 19.300 19.125 -0.175 -0.214 Eagles 28.200 27.875 -0.325 0.078 Jets 24.400 23.750 -0.650 0.025 Jaguars 31.200 30.500 -0.700 -0.570 Raiders 30.000 29.250 -0.750 -0.646 49ers 5.700 4.250 -1.450 -2.060 Buccaneers 21.700 19.875 -1.825 -0.267 Cardinals 26.900 25.000 -1.900 0.568 Saints 16.600 14.500 -2.100 1.342 Rams 17.500 14.875 -2.625 -1.274 Seahawks 5.200 2.125 -3.075 0.211 Bears 13.100 7.875 -5.225 -0.212 Giants 15.300 10.000 -5.300 -2.482 Panthers 19.600 13.875 -5.725 1.119 Lions 27.200 21.125 -6.075 0.237

Observations:

The Colts rose in the subjective rankings, and fell in the objective rankings. Therefore, their over-ranking got even worse.

The Vikings, while being the 2nd-most over-ranked team, still have 1/3rd the disparity the Colts do.

Wow, the Chargers are very consistent here. Their Subjective and Objective rankings are within 1/40th of a spot within each other.

Crazy: the 10 most under-ranked teams are all NFC teams.

The Seahawks are definitely under-ranked here, but it's not historically bad nor is it comparatively that bad. The Bears, Giants, Panthers and Lions are getting even less respect.

Sources