Donald Trump is poised to bounce back after his second-place finish in Iowa and win New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary next week.

That’s according to members of The POLITICO Caucus — a collection of strategists, activists and operatives in the four early nominating states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Three-in-five GOP insiders across the four states — and two-thirds of Republicans in New Hampshire — said that despite Marco Rubio’s apparent rise in Iowa, Trump can’t be toppled next Tuesday.


A number of factors make a Rubio surge to first place unlikely, insiders said: Trump’s overwhelming lead in the polls, which is far larger than his advantage in Iowa; the number of other candidates focusing on New Hampshire, including John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie; and Ted Cruz’s core conservative support, which currently has the Texas senator in second place.

“Trump will be defeated in this process, but I don't think he will collapse in a week,” said a New Hampshire Republican, who, like all respondents, responded anonymously. “Congrats to Rubio, but now everyone will [go] after him with withering attacks. The real race in New Hampshire is for second, for the opportunity to consolidate support to stop Trump or Cruz after New Hampshire.”

“There are more candidates competing in New Hampshire, many of whom have practically lived there for months or years,” added another New Hampshire Republican. Yet another said, “Rubio is in a five-person battle with Bush, Christie, Kasich and Cruz” for second place.

Those Republican insiders who think Rubio has a chance to overtake Trump in New Hampshire — about 40 percent nationally and a third in New Hampshire — stressed the late-breaking nature of the New Hampshire primary and the unreliability of both public and private polling in the week between Iowa and New Hampshire.

“New Hampshire has always been about trajectories, and it’s a uniformly repeated mistake to assume that legacy polling impacts the final outcome,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “Rubio will come on strong for two reasons: 1) Unlike Cruz, Rubio will live in New Hampshire through the primary, while Cruz has already shown that he’s hedging his bets and has traveled to South Carolina and 2) Kasich, Christie and Bush’s support will collapse as mainstream voters view them as bad horses.”

“Iowa proved polls are misleading and Trump can bleed,” another New Hampshire Republican added. “Any of the four mainstreamers — Bush, Christie, Rubio or Kasich — have a clear shot depending on which way the undeclared [voters] go. Rand Paul’s departure benefits Cruz, furthering that spat and making an Iowa-like outcome in New Hampshire more likely.”

Democrats don’t think Hillary Clinton can catch Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire.

Bernie Sanders held a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire polls conducted before Clinton narrowly won the Iowa caucuses this week. And most Democratic members of The POLITICO Caucus don’t foresee a Clinton comeback that can overtake the Vermont senator in New Hampshire.

Two-thirds of Democratic insiders said Clinton’s deficit, combined with the closeness of the race in Iowa, meant that she would not be able to generate the momentum necessary to surpass Sanders in New Hampshire.

“She is too far behind,” said an Iowa Democrat, “and Iowa was not a decisive win.”

“I guess you never say never, but the gap between Sanders and Clinton is awfully large, and unlike Trump, Sanders has very low disapproval numbers,” added a New Hampshire Democrat. “Voters — even those not likely to vote for him next Tuesday — like the guy.”

One notable trend: Democratic insiders in New Hampshire were more likely to say Clinton still has a shot to win New Hampshire, despite Sanders’ lead. But there wasn’t much confidence that she will pull it off.

“If Hillary does win New Hampshire, it will be by a margin as close as Iowa,” said one New Hampshire Democrat.

“It’s Bernie’s to lose at this point,” added another New Hampshire Democrat. “The … Clinton team has done what they need to do, and they will execute with aplomb — but it’s a Vermont border state with liberal and libertarian Democratic primary voters. New Hampshire’s large bloc of undeclared voters may choose to take a Republican ballot — if [only] the Dems vote, they will give Clinton a victory. If the undeclared take Dem ballots, Bernie should win by the double digits currently projected.”

The Vermont factor was a contested point among New Hampshire Democratic insiders. They were divided over the question of how much Sanders’ long tenure representing a neighboring state — he was first elected as Vermont's at-large House member in 1990 — helps him.

“Every Clinton surrogate, and the secretary herself, is lowering expectations for a Clinton performance — pointing to the fact that Sanders represents the nearby state of Vermont,” said one New Hampshire Democrat. “Local politicos roll their eyes at such an argument. Clinton’s organization had New Hampshire ‘locked up’ for months. New Hampshire’s Democratic federal delegation supports Clinton. New Hampshire’s Democratic governor, executive councilors and most state senators support Clinton. Clinton won the New Hampshire primary in 2008. Months ago, MSNBC’s Chris Matthews couldn’t get the New Hampshire Democratic Party chairman to acknowledge that Sen. Sanders was even a credible candidate amid the overwhelming local support and organization of Clinton.”

Even if Clinton can’t catapult over Sanders in New Hampshire, insiders in the next two states — Nevada and South Carolina — said it’s important that she close the gap somewhat to generate momentum into the second half of February.

“The gap [in New Hampshire] is too wide for Hillary to overtake Sanders,” said a Nevada Democrat. “She needs to exceed expectations to give her a boost coming into Nevada and South Carolina.”

“Look, Hillary needed to split the first two primaries,” added a South Carolina Democrat. “She's done that. I expect she'll close the gap in [New Hampshire], but reality is going to set in for Sanders when he comes to South Carolina. He's a real fish out of water in the Palmetto State.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Richard S. Rogers, Nick Ryan, Matt Schultz, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, William O’Brien, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Karen Testerman, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams, Ethan Zorfas

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Gary R. Smith, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.