Last week, we took a deep look at the meta prior to LVO, analyzing the faction breakdowns so far, looking at key lists, and making predictions about how the event would shake out. Now that the games have been played and the dust has settled, it’s time to see where things sit prior to the incorporation of the rules from the new Ritual of the Damned supplement.

First off, if you missed our prior analyses, you can find them here:

The Results

Let’s start with the results. After all the no-shows were taken out and the final results were tallied, here’s the faction breakdown:

As before, Space Marines dominated the format as a whole, making up more than one in four armies. Coupled with what we’ll see was a tournament-high 61% win rate, this means that your chances of playing a Space Marines player in the tournament each round increased significantly as you won more games. A player who won their first three games had roughly an 80% chance of playing Marines in round 4, and a given player had only a 6% chance to make it through round 4 without playing any Marines after starting 3-0.

By Subfaction, Iron Hands were the most dominant once you take out the Red Scorpions and Raptors, which are both run as Raven Guard Successors. 63 players played Iron Hands, with the average Iron Hands player walking away with 3.5 wins. Raven Guard and Adeptus Astartes (read as IH/RG successors) were close behind. Imperial Fists fared a bit worse, making up the 3rd largest cohort of Marine lists and averaging 3.3 wins. After that it was a significant (0.5 wins) drop-off to Salamanders.

The Adeptus Astartes Subfactions

Astartes Sub-Faction Avg. Wins @ LVO Players Red Scorpions* 4.5 4 Raptors** 4.33 6 Iron Hands 3.54 63 Raven Guard 3.5 16 Adeptus Astartes/Mixed 3.45 57 Imperial Fists 3.33 24 Salamanders 2.8 5 White Scars 2.67 6 Ultramarines 2.4 18 Dark Angels 2.5 5 Blood Angels 2.28 16 Space Wolves 2.13 8

*Run as an Iron Hands Successor

**Raven Guard Successor

Based on this, we can develop official, IRON-CLAD MARINE TIERS. Note that these do not take into account new Dark Angels rules from Ritual of the Damned.

S TIER

Iron Hands Raven Guard

A TIER

Imperial Fists Mixed Astartes/Successors

B TIER

Salamanders White Scars Ultramarines

C TIER

Dark Angels Blood Angels Space Wolves

Of these, Blood Angels are the most surprising, owing to their just having received a powerful new codex. Though given that some Blood Angels lists fell within the “Adeptus Astartes” category thanks to being a mix of multiple chapters, it’s not quite as dire. This does suggest that monofaction Blood Angels may struggle, though.

Winning Games

By faction overall, Marines posted the highest win percentage at 61%, matched only by Forces of the Hive Mind, who had a much smaller sample but still performed admirably across their 52 games.

This isn’t far off of what we’ve seen in our recent analyses and of course, this led to a disproportionate number of Marine armies in the top lists. If we refine our sample to just the lists that went 5-1 or better through the event’s first two days, we can see this impact immediately, where Adeptus Astartes armies make up a whopping 46 percent of the 5+ win factions. And true to form, they’d eventually account for five of the top 8 lists on the final day.

Breaking this down further, our results basically line up with our Tier rankings above, with Iron Hands and their successors showing the strongest results, followed by Raven Guard Successors and then Imperial Fists. Always good to confirm your priors, I guess.

Scoring

One more useful thing we can look at is how factions scored, which can help us understand the differences between faction records (Note: We currently don’t have the points allowed, but we have points scored in wins vs. losses to look at). Along with their winning records, Iron Hands armies also excel at scoring points broadly, something that we saw when we did our initial meta analysis for them back in November. Of note here are the Forces of the Hive Mind, who score very well, and tend to do so consistently as we’ll see when we look at win/loss spreads.

Top 5 Scoring Factions at LVO, Minimum 50 games

Faction Average Game Score Forces of the Hive Mind 26.9 Imperial Fists 26.7 Adeptus Astartes 26.3 Iron Hands 26.2 Raven Guard 26.1

Bottom 5 Scoring Factions at LVO, Minimum 50 games

Faction Average Score Death Guard 21.3 Astra Militarum 20.9 Adeptus Custodes 20.6 Imperial Knights 20.5 Grey Knights 19.6

We can also look at the difference between a faction’s score when it wins versus when it loses to identify if certain factions win big or lose big, or if they’re able to consistently score the same amount of points each time. A faction that has a large spread potentially has a better chance of pulling an upset, but if its average score is low, then it’s unlikely to perform well enough across several games to actually squeeze out a win in a 5+ round event.

Top 5 Factions by Points Score Differential, Wins vs. Losses at LVO, Minimum 50 games

Faction Avg. Diff Imperial Knights 15.6 Chaos Knights 15.2 Adeptus Mechanicus 14.4 Chaos Space Marines 13.9 Necrons 13.9

Bottom 5 Factions by Points Score Differential, Wins vs. Losses at LVO, Minimum 50 games

Faction Avg. Spread Forces of the Hive Mind 10.4 Tyranids 10.7 Adepta Sororitas 10.7 Drukhari 11.2 Imperial Fists 11.4

A few interesting things to note here:

The spreads aren’t that large.The difference between the biggest and smallest spreads on average is about 5 points. This is a significant amount, but it shows that even for the most volatile armies, the average difference between a win and a loss is 5 points, or potentially 1-2 good turns.

Imperial Knights and Chaos Knights both came in tops here, suggesting that they tend to win big or lose big. This makes sense given how few units they have to work with.

The Forces of the Hive Mind and Tyranids look like they’re remarkably consistent in how many points they score, regardless of whether they win or lose. Given that Forces of the Hive Mind also had a high average score, that might bode well for them moving forward. Then again, it’s also a small sample size so this might be one of the more volatile results. Worth tracking.

Armies more dependent on the first turn seem to have a higher win/loss points spread, while it looks like more horde-based armies have a lower spread. This would make sense if they have an easier time holding objectives throughout a game.

The Units

Using list data from the 5+ win lists, we can get a strong picture of the units used and their frequencies. We’ve mapped this in the table below, with both the raw number of units in the 5+ win armies, and also the number of armies with each unit, so you can get a picture of both how often you’d see a unit, and the sheer number that you’ll run into.

Unit Total Units in 5+ Win Teams Armies with Unit Percentage of Armies with Unit Aberrants 2 2 2.67% Abominant 1 1 1.33% Acolyte Hybrids 11 3 4.00% Aggressor Squad 2 2 2.67% Aggressors 1 1 1.33% Ahriman 2 2 2.67% Ahriman on Disc of Tzeentch 1 1 1.33% Apothecary 2 2 2.67% Archon 4 3 4.00% Astorath 1 1 1.33% Astraeus Super-heavy Tank 1 1 1.33% Astropath 1 1 1.33% Atalan Jackals 1 1 1.33% Attack Bike Squad 1 1 1.33% Autarch 1 1 1.33% Autarch Skyrunner 2 2 2.67% Basilisks 2 1 1.33% Battle Sister Squad 6 1 1.33% Belisarius Cawl 2 2 2.67% Big Mek 1 1 1.33% Big Mek in Mega Armour 1 1 1.33% Big Mek W/ Kustom Force Field 3 2 2.67% Big Mek W/ Shokk Attack Gun 9 4 5.33% Biophagus 1 1 1.33% Boyz 19 5 6.67% Brood Brothers Infantry Squad 4 2 2.67% Broodlord 2 2 2.67% Bullgryns 1 1 1.33% C'tan Shard of the Deceiver 1 1 1.33% Cadre Fireblade 1 1 1.33% Canoness 3 1 1.33% Captain 25 19 25.33% Captain in Phobos Armour 2 2 2.67% Captain on Bike 1 1 1.33% Captain-General Trajann Valoris 1 1 1.33% Centurion Assault Squad 27 16 21.33% Centurion Devastator Squad 5 5 6.67% Chaos Cultists 28 8 10.67% Chaos Lord with Jump Pack 6 3 4.00% Chaos Space Marines 7 3 4.00% Chaos Terminators 1 1 1.33% Chaplain 8 8 10.67% Chaplain Cassius 1 1 1.33% Chaplain Venerable Dreadnought 33 15 20.00% Chapter Master 1 1 1.33% Chapter Master in Cataphractii Armor 1 1 1.33% Chapter Master in Gravis Armor 1 1 1.33% Chapter Master in Phobos Armor 1 1 1.33% Chief Librarian Mephiston (Primaris) 1 1 1.33% Chief Librarian Tigurius 1 1 1.33% Commander in XV85 Enforcer Battlesuit 2 1 1.33% Commander in XV86 Coldstar Battlesuit 3 2 2.67% Commander Shadowsun 1 1 1.33% Company Commander 3 1 1.33% Company Veterans 1 1 1.33% Contemptor Mortis Dreadnought 2 1 1.33% Corpuscarii Electro-Priests 1 1 1.33% Crimson Hunter 2 1 1.33% Crimson Hunter Exarch 6 2 2.67% Custodian Guard Squad 6 1 1.33% Daedalosus 3 3 4.00% Daemon Prince 2 1 1.33% Daemon Prince of Tzeentch 7 3 4.00% Daemon Prince with Wings 4 2 2.67% Daemonettes 3 1 1.33% Dahyak Grekh 1 1 1.33% Dark Apostle 6 5 6.67% Dark Disciples 5 5 6.67% Dark Reapers 3 3 4.00% Death Company 1 1 1.33% Death Jester 1 1 1.33% Deff Dread 1 1 1.33% DeffKopta 1 1 1.33% Destroyers 1 1 1.33% Devastator Squad 11 10 13.33% Dire Avengers 4 1 1.33% Doom Scythe 3 1 1.33% Doomsday Ark 3 1 1.33% Drazhar 1 1 1.33% Drop Pod 10 10 13.33% Eldrad Ulthran 2 2 2.67% Eliminator Squad 27 11 14.67% Eliminators 3 1 1.33% Ethereal 2 2 2.67% Exocrine 2 1 1.33% Exorcist 3 1 1.33% Falcon 4 3 4.00% Farseer 1 1 1.33% Farseer Skyrunner 8 7 9.33% Fire Prism 2 1 1.33% Firesight Marksman 1 1 1.33% Flash Gitz 2 2 2.67% Fulgurite Electro-Priests 2 1 1.33% Genestealers 4 2 2.67% Greater Possessed 1 1 1.33% Gretchin 24 5 6.67% Grotesques 4 2 2.67% Haemonculus 2 2 2.67% Havocs 1 1 1.33% Heavy Destroyers 1 1 1.33% Heavy Support 2 2 2.67% Hector Rex 1 1 1.33% Heldrake 1 1 1.33% Hellforged Contemptor Dreadnought 1 1 1.33% Hellforged Scorpius 3 2 2.67% Hemlock Wraithfighter 3 1 1.33% Herald of Slaanesh 4 3 4.00% Hive Guard 1 1 1.33% Hive Tyrant 2 1 1.33% Hormagaunts 1 1 1.33% Hospitaller 1 1 1.33% Imagifier 2 1 1.33% Imotekh the Stormlord 1 1 1.33% Impulsor 6 2 2.67% Incursor Squad 2 1 1.33% Incursors 2 1 1.33% Infantry Squad 9 1 1.33% Infiltrator Squad 10 7 9.33% Infiltrators 1 1 1.33% Inquisitor 2 2 2.67% Intercessor Squad 106 29 38.67% Invictor Tactical Warsuit 14 7 9.33% Iron Father Feirros 12 12 16.00% Jackal Alphus 1 1 1.33% Jain Zar 1 1 1.33% Kabalite Warriors 6 2 2.67% Kaptin Badrukk 1 1 1.33% Kastelan Robots 1 1 1.33% Kataphron Breachers 2 1 1.33% Kelermorph 1 1 1.33% Khorne Lord of Skulls 6 2 2.67% Knight Despoiler 3 1 1.33% Land Raider Achilles 1 1 1.33% Leman Russ Battle Tanks 2 1 1.33% Lemartes 1 1 1.33% Lias Issodon 4 4 5.33% Librarian 7 7 9.33% Librarian in Phobos Armour 2 2 2.67% Lictor 1 1 1.33% Lieutenants 8 7 9.33% Lootas 1 1 1.33% Lord 1 1 1.33% Lord Asterion Moloc 1 1 1.33% Lord Discordant 1 1 1.33% Lord Discordant on Helstalker 3 3 4.00% Mad Dok Grotsnik 3 3 4.00% Magus 3 3 4.00% Malanthropes 3 3 4.00% Marneus Calgar 1 1 1.33% Master of Executions 2 2 2.67% Master of Possession 6 6 8.00% Mek Gunz 5 3 4.00% Mephiston 1 1 1.33% Ministorum Priest 1 1 1.33% Missionary 1 1 1.33% Mortis Dreadnought 6 6 8.00% Neurothrope 1 1 1.33% Nexos 1 1 1.33% Night Spinner 15 5 6.67% Nightwing 5 2 2.67% Nob with Waaagh! Banner 1 1 1.33% Nurglings 8 3 4.00% Obliterators 4 4 5.33% Onager Dunecrawler 5 2 2.67% Patriarch 2 2 2.67% Plaguebearers 2 1 1.33% Plagueburst Crawler 5 2 2.67% Possessed 6 5 6.67% Poxbringer 4 3 4.00% Primaris Ancient 2 2 2.67% Primaris Apothecary 12 12 16.00% Primaris Chaplain 4 4 5.33% Primaris Chapter Master 1 1 1.33% Primaris Librarian 5 5 6.67% Primaris Lieutenant 4 3 4.00% Primaris Lieutenants 18 18 24.00% Primaris Psyker 1 1 1.33% Primus 3 3 4.00% Raider 1 1 1.33% Rangers 9 4 5.33% Rapier Carrier 7 3 4.00% Ravager 2 1 1.33% Razorwing Jetfighter 4 2 2.67% Redemptor Dreadnought 4 3 4.00% Reiver Squad 2 1 1.33% Relic Contemptor Dreadnought 7 6 8.00% Relic Deredeo Dreadnought 2 2 2.67% Relic Leviathan Dreadnought 14 13 17.33% Relic Whirlwind Scorpius 10 7 9.33% Relics of the Chapter 1 1 1.33% Repulsor Executioner 6 4 5.33% Ripper Swarms 6 3 4.00% Rubric Marines 5 1 1.33% Runtherd 1 1 1.33% Sanguinary Guard 1 1 1.33% Scout Bike Squad 1 1 1.33% Scout Squad 53 26 34.67% Scouts 3 1 1.33% Seraphim Squad 3 1 1.33% Servitors 8 5 6.67% Shadowseer 3 3 4.00% Shield Captain in Allarus Terminator Armor 1 1 1.33% Shield-Captain on Dawneagle Jetbike 2 1 1.33% Shining Spears 6 3 4.00% Shokkjump Dragstas 1 1 1.33% Sicarian Infiltrators 1 1 1.33% Skitarii Rangers 9 3 4.00% Skitarii Vanguards 4 1 1.33% Skorpius Disintegrator 8 3 4.00% Skorpius Dunerider 5 1 1.33% Skyweavers 7 3 4.00% Solitaire 3 3 4.00% Sorcerer 2 2 2.67% Sorcerer in Terminator Armour 3 1 1.33% Sorcerer with Jump Pack 1 1 1.33% Spiritseer 5 4 5.33% Starweaver 3 1 1.33% Storm Guardians 5 3 4.00% Stormhawk Interceptor 9 3 4.00% Stormtalon Gunship 7 3 4.00% Strike Team 3 1 1.33% Succubus 3 2 2.67% Support Weapons 6 2 2.67% Suppressor Squad 25 9 12.00% Swooping Hawks 1 1 1.33% Tactical Drones 6 2 2.67% Talos 2 1 1.33% Tank Commander 3 1 1.33% Tankbustas 1 1 1.33% Tech marine 1 1 1.33% Tech-Priest Enginseer 6 3 4.00% Tech-Priest Manipulus 1 1 1.33% Techmarine 8 7 9.33% Techmarine Gunner 2 1 1.33% Termagants 6 3 4.00% Terrax Pattern Termite Assault Drill 1 1 1.33% Terrax-Pattern Termite Assault Drill 1 1 1.33% Tervigon 1 1 1.33% Tesseract Ark 2 1 1.33% The Contorted Epitome 2 2 2.67% The Swarmlord 3 3 4.00% The Yncarne 2 2 2.67% Thunderfire cannon 55 28 37.33% Troupe 6 2 2.67% Troupe Master 3 3 4.00% Trukk 1 1 1.33% Tyranid Prime 1 1 1.33% Tyranid Warriors 1 1 1.33% Tyrant Guard 1 1 1.33% Urien Rakarth 2 2 2.67% Venom 4 1 1.33% Vexillus Praetor 1 1 1.33% War Dogs Moirax 3 1 1.33% Warboss 2 2 2.67% Warboss on Warbike 3 3 4.00% Warlock 1 1 1.33% Warlock Skyrunner 4 4 5.33% Warlock Skyrunner Conclave 2 2 2.67% Warp Talons 3 2 2.67% Wave Serpent 2 1 1.33% Weirdboy 11 5 6.67% Whirlwind 9 5 6.67% Whirlwind Hyperios 2 1 1.33% Wracks 6 2 2.67% Wyches 3 1 1.33% XV104 Riptide Battlesuit 6 2 2.67% XV25 Stealth Battlesuits 2 1 1.33% XV88 Broadside Battlesuits 1 1 1.33% Yvraine 1 1 1.33% Zephyrim Squad 3 1 1.33% Zoanthropes 3 1 1.33%

While Intercessors as troops are now the most common unit in the game, Thunderfire Cannons are the clear #2 when we’re looking at successful armies. 37% of 5+ win lists had at least one, and the total count was 55, meaning that the average list had just under 2. Likewise an average of 2 Scout Squads showed up per list to help fill out detachments.

Notable Lists

Finally, we can also look at the units used in the lists that notched 5+ wins to get an idea of their makeup. We’ve already covered the winning list (the “Brohammer” Iron Hands list) in more detail in our interview with Richard Siegler yesterday, but you can find it again here: