A compromise plan to resolve the Coalition's internal split over marriage reform is the most likely outcome from Monday's special policy meeting. After all, the alternative could lead to the ugliest divorce in the Liberal Party's history.

Right now, the twin risks of a one-seat majority and entrenched unpopularity have focused Coalition minds, prompting MPs to rethink a looming bare-knuckle political fight with existential implications.

As they say in Canberra, in the race of politics, always back the horse called self-interest - at least you know it's trying.

Of course, nobody can say for sure because this argument is in the hands of the Liberal party room.