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Jason Bay And Casper Wells Facts

Some time ago it became abundantly clear that Jason Bay and Casper Wells were going to be fighting for the same job. Less time ago, it became pretty clear that the Mariners preferred Bay, and a few days ago, while the Mariners said they were going to let the competition play out, the team took Bay to Salt Lake while it left Wells in Arizona. Today, the expected became official: the Mariners put Bay on the 25-man roster, and they designated Wells for assignment. The team now has ten days to trade, release, or outright Wells, and several more days after that to try to forget that the Doug Fister deal ever happened. I personally haven’t been able to do that so I think we’re going to need some scientists.

Wells, probably, is going to end up getting traded to a team with a thin outfield in exchange for a non-roster barely-prospect. It’s hard to imagine that Wells would clear waivers, even at this point in time. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I wouldn’t plan on it. As such, I thought this would be a good time to present some Jason Bay and Casper Wells facts of interest.

Fact

Casper Wells is 28 years old. Jason Bay is 34 years old.

Fact

Wells has four more years of team control. Bay is on a one-year contract.

Fact

Wells and Bay are both right-handed.

Fact

Wells debuted in the majors in 2010. Since then, he’s batted 656 times, while Bay has batted 1,125 times. According to FanGraphs, Wells has averaged 3.6 WAR per 600 plate appearances, while Bay has averaged 0.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances. When I did an Excel search for “Jason Bay”, I accidentally did an Excel search for “Jason Ba”, and before I got down to Jason Bay I wound up at Jason Bartlett. Jason Bay has been less valuable than Jason Bartlett.

Fact

Part of that difference is because the defensive numbers like Wells and think less of Bay. But looking at offense only, Wells has posted a 110 OPS+, while Bay has posted a 90 OPS+. Wells has posted a .189 ISO, while Bay has posted a .135 ISO.

Fact

And we can’t just ignore defense, because defense is one of an outfielder’s responsibilities. Even if you aren’t a fan of the metrics we have at our disposal, it stands to reason that Wells is a better defender than Bay is. He’s younger, he’s more athletic, and people have trusted him to play center field. Bay is by no means slow, and some years ago we were probably too hard on him when he was a free agent, but all baseball authorities would agree that they’d rather have three Casper Wellses in the field with the game on the line than three Jason Bays.

Fact

Bay hasn’t played center in a meaningful game since 2005. Wells started nine games in center a year ago. The Mariners’ starting center fielder is Franklin Gutierrez, and their only other option is Michael Saunders, so Wells would’ve provided greater useful flexibility.

Fact

While Wells has drawn criticism for being streaky, or for not being a starter-caliber player, every player in baseball is streaky, and Wells wouldn’t have been expected to start. Bay’s the guy coming off a .240 wOBA. Bay hasn’t been a starter-caliber player for years, and now he is only older.

Fact

Bay is said to be a phenomenally nice guy and he’s got plenty of veteran experience, but the whole reason the Mariners targeted Raul Ibanez was because of his personality and experience and shouldn’t one be enough? What does it mean for the Mariners’ valuation of Ibanez if they felt like they also needed Bay at least in part because of his intangibles?

Rationally, there’s no question that Jason Bay could bounce back. I kind of expect him to, and based on our conversations, Dave feels kind of the same. Bay is healthier now, and he’s in a new environment, and he’s obviously looked good in the spring. Jason Bay, in 2013, could be useful, and we could even come to like him. He’s local. Hooray Jason Bay! Were it not for the Mariners having had Casper Wells, Bay would’ve made some amount of sense as a cheap acquisition. But the Mariners had Casper Wells, and he isn’t injured or sick. He’s young and healthy and the evidence points in his favor. Wells, too, is under control for a while, and while I get that Bay isn’t automatically gone after this year, especially if he’s productive, Wells is something of a long-term asset. Not an outstanding one, but one nonetheless.

There exists a possibility that Bay will out-perform Wells in 2013. There exists a possibility that Wells has already peaked, and that there are things about him that suggest worse things to come. Any projection, however, will take Wells every time, and it’s not like the numbers give him a tiny advantage. The numbers give him a massive advantage, and the Mariners have made a decision against that. We can try to rationalize it, and it should and could be rationalized, but take a step back and there’s no way this doesn’t look silly. Wells is a useful, versatile, young, healthy outfielder, and the Mariners are getting rid of him to make room for another team’s Chone Figgins.

Maybe, somehow, Wells clears waivers and goes to Tacoma, not that there’s playing time to be found there what with Eric Thames, Endy Chavez, and Carlos Peguero. More likely, Wells leaves in exchange for basically nothing. More likely, the Mariners will effectively trade Casper Wells for a fringe prospect and Jason Bay. It’s not a hugely awful move that’s going to have devastating long-term consequences. You can replace a guy like Wells, and this is one of those moves where we say “little bad moves add up”. You don’t want to make too much of those moves individually. But you have to make something of them, and this is a move that doesn’t make any statistical sense. Sometimes the stats miss the point. More times, humans are wrong.

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