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The year 2013 was the one, you might say, that brought clarity, that crystallized the record. On the plus side, it established the Stephen Harper government as a strong and arguably successful one in conservative policy terms.

On the downside it furthered the suspicion that this is one of the most ethically depraved administrations the country has ever seen.

The year brought forward what may well be Harper’s most memorable policy achievement: the European free trade pact. It produced, on top of so many other examples of abuse of power, what likely will be his most memorable scandal: the Senate expenses cover-up.

The year in politics was significant in that it appeared to restore the natural order of things. The notion that a paradigm shift took place in the last election took a drubbing as the NDP fell back into its traditional third place ranking while the Liberal party re-emerged — at least according to the polls — as one of the two top parties.

The stage is set for the drama to follow. Will Harper be brought down by more scandal and sleaze? Will the Justin Trudeau bubble burst because he confirms the suspicion that he’s as light as a kite? Will NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, who has more gravitas than anyone in Parliament, translate that force into support?

We may well see some of all three. More revelations of Nixonian corruption on the part of the Conservatives that will continue to eat away at their support. A Trudeau who doesn’t put much policy meat on the table and loses ground as voters assess whether he has enough seasoning to be prime minister. A Mulcair who will ratchet up in support — because he’s got too many strengths not to.

One of the most irrational things to happen in 2014 could be Stephen Harper’s decision to stay on and try to win another election. The soundest and safest course would be for him to announce his departure this spring and call a leadership convention for the fall, leaving time for his successor to at least get his or her bearings.

For Trudeau to maintain his perch in 2014, his team has to hold him in check. No more vocal-chord freelancing. It was Mulcair — not Trudeau — who made the House of Commons meaningful again in 2013.

He’d leave a solid legacy in place. He has advanced the Conservative cause in many policy areas — on law and order, the economy, foreign policy, trade. On the political side, having led the movement to merge the party and having given the party three election victories, he has a record that will sit well in the history books.

By staying, he risks a great deal. He risks getting tarred more and more with the scandal brush, losing to a name — the Trudeau name — which he has always detested. He risks taking the Conservatives down.

If there were some overriding policy priority Harper still had to put in place, he might have a better reason to stay. But there isn’t. It’s merely a matter of what compels so many leaders to stay past their due date: a fixation with power.

He may well be right in thinking Trudeau is vulnerable. All Trudeau has proven so far is that a legendary name can capture the public’s imagination. The Liberals haven’t undergone any dramatic policy changes. They jumped from third place to first in the polls for no substantive reason.

For Trudeau to maintain his perch in 2014, his team has to hold him in check. No more vocal-chord freelancing. He also needs a policy vision that reaches beyond the mush put out by Michael Ignatieff. His best opportunity lies in a vision of renewed democracy for Canada. The party has some good democratic reform proposals in place but nothing far-reaching enough to convince the public that the system can be changed under a Liberal government.

It was Mulcair — not Trudeau — who made the House of Commons meaningful again in 2013. His dramatic courtroom-style interrogation of the prime minister — featuring short, succinct questions instead of long-winded lectures — was highly effective. It was a change long overdue. We can expect to see other leaders pick up on this, producing question periods worth watching.

Mulcair will haunt Harper in the coming year — on the Senate scandal and more. While there is reason to believe the prime minister didn’t know the details regarding the payment to Senator Mike Duffy to cover his expenses, it is far more difficult to believe he didn’t know that his office was involved in what even his director of communications calls a cover-up.

If the opposition establishes he did know of it, he is a crippled leader. And if he escapes more anguish on the Senate scandal, there is still the more serious matter of allegations of electoral fraud being investigated by the media and by Elections Canada.

There will be a tug of war. The Conservatives will be putting the focus on the economy. There (though it hasn’t helped them in the polls this year) they have a case to make. They have the promise of a balanced budget, the European agreement, and the prospect of tax breaks.

As for Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau, they will be trying to put the focus on something else — a prime minister and a government that is morally bankrupt and should be made to pay for it.

Lawrence Martin is the author of 10 books, including six national bestsellers. His most recent, Harperland, was nominated for the Shaughnessy Cohen award. His other works include two volumes on Jean Chrétien, two on Canada-U.S. relations and three books on hockey.

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