21:22

In the early stages of the Tory leadership contest the Boris Johnson camp concluded that Michael Gove would pose more of a threat than Jeremy Hunt in the final stage of the contest, and it is widely assumed at Westminster that this assessment resulted in Team Johnson lending Hunt the votes he need to beat Gove by just two in the MPs’ ballot. The calculation was that Gove would be more brutal in debate. After tonight, that’s not looking such a good judgment because Hunt was more assertive than we’ve seen him before, challenging Johnson repeatedly on specifics. Judged on these skirmishes, Hunt won the debate handsomely. He came over as better briefed and more forensic, and there were several moments in the debate where Johnson found bluster and bonhomie a poor substitute for arguments.

That said, given what all the polling is telling us about the Conservative membership, it would have taken a Titanic disaster for Johnson start throwing away large numbers of votes amongst the (possibly few) Tory members who have not already returned the ballot papers that went out by post last week. Johnson sounded glib and cavalier, but it would be impossible to have been involved in Conservative politics and not to have noticed that he’s like that already. Also, Johnson did better in the second half than in the first half - fighting Hunt to a draw on tax, to my ears, and deflating Hunt a bit by making him admit that his “keep Kim Darroch” pledge only lasted until Christmas.

The debate exposed two big faultlines between the two men. Johnson is determined to play down the risk of a no-deal Brexit, while Hunt isn’t. (See 8.18pm.) And, while Hunt is willing to be at least moderately critical of President Trump, tonight Johnson refused point blank. Mainstream UK opinion, and certainly Guardian opinion, would be with Hunt on both this issues. But most Tory members are Brexiters, and there is a lot of polling evidence to suggest that leave voters believe the risks of a no-deal Brexit have been exaggerated. And, on Trump, Johnson was effectively endorsing his claim that May’s Brexit strategy has been a disaster - an assessment shared by many grassroots Conservatives. Johnson acquitted himself poorly this evening but, ideologically, he is probably in the right place for someone this electorate.

And one more point; it is important to remember that debates almost never have as much impact on elections as the media assume.

So, overall, it was a clear, technical victory for Hunt - but probably a superficial one too.