Variety is the Spice of a Good Mock Draft

There are many different considerations that go into making a 2019 NFL Mock Draft. It’s like making a spice blend. The real art of the mock draft is in creating your own personal blend of draft prospect rankings, NFL team needs, positional value, and following or deviating from the consensus.

Like a master chef needs to know how each of her spices and herbs taste in order to know how much of each to sprinkle into a blend, so must we know how each strategy would look isolated from all of the others to know how much weight we should give to each strategy for each pick.

Now is a good time, before we start going hard into mock draft contests, to see how each of these strategies would look when we put pen to paper, or if you are making your mock drafts the right way, finger to phone.

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Using the updated 2019 NFL Draft order (lovingly provided to us by the good folks over at Tankathon) I’m eager to see if these separate mock draft strategies give me any overlap after Nick Bosa.

Mock Draft Strategy 1: Best Player Available

Many fans (and some GMs) believe that player talent, in a vacuum, trumps all. In this example, I have completely ignored NFL team needs and positional value (even when it was absurd to do so) and just sent the top-10 prospects on my big board to the first 10 teams:

1. Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State

2. Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama

3. Ed Oliver, DT Houston

4. Byron Murphy, CB Washington

5. Jachai Polite, DE Florida

6. Brian Burns, OLB Florida State

7. D.K. Metcalf, WR Ole Miss

8. Jeffery Simmons, DT Mississippi State

9. Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson

10. Christian Wilkins, DT Clemson

While it would be a little weird to see ATL draft a CB and JAX draft a WR, the only pick here that really makes 0 sense would be TB drafting a DT in the first two years in a row, without bringing in any help for their O-line or defensive backfield.

Mock Draft Strategy 2: NFL Team Needs

Most new mock drafters use this strategy a bit too heavily, just slotting in their highest rated player at the position of greatest need, regardless of scheme fit, player ranking, or positional value. Let’s see what that looks like here:

1. Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State

2. Jonah Williams, OT Alabama

3. Jachai Polite, DE Florida

4. Devin White, ILB LSU

5. Brian Burns, OLB Florida State

6. D.K. Metcalf, WR Ole Miss

7. Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

8. Byron Murphy, CB Washington

9. Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson

10. Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama

It’s sometimes difficult to nail down a team’s biggest need in the top-10, since these teams usually have needs up and down their rosters. I particularly struggled identifying needs for ARI (WR and DT were considerations) and ATL (DT, CB).

Mock Draft Strategy 3: Positional Value

Here is where we start blending a bit, still filling team needs and following the big board, but focusing much more on positional value and on the depth of these certain positions in this year’s draft class:

1. Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State

2. Jonah Williams, OT Alabama

3. Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

4. Devin White, ILB LSU

5. David Edwards, OT Wisconsin

6. Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma

7. Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State

8. Deionte Thompson, D Alabama

9. Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson

10. Will Grier, QB WVU

With a ton of DT talent available in this year’s class, I had no choice but to push Quinnen and Oliver out of the top-10. The positions that carry the most on-field value (QB, OT, DE) and the positions that offer very little depth (LB, S) fill out the rest of the top-10. And notice Ferrell to the Lions hitting 3-for-3.

Mock Draft Strategy 4: Consensus Mock Draft

Based on our Mock Draft Database, here are the consensus picks, as best as I can get them:

1. Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State

2. Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama

3. Josh Allen, OLB Kentucky

4. Ed Oliver, DT Houston

5. Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson

6. Jonah Williams, OT Alabama

7. Justin Herbert, QB Oregon

8. Deionte Thompson, D Alabama

9. Greedy Williams, CB LSU

10. Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State

Following this consensus mock is a safe, unspectacular way to go. High floor, low ceiling. The best mock draft strategy to use depends on what kind of contest you are entering. Just like you would want a totally different lineup in DFS depending on whether you are playing head-to-head or in a large tournament, you would want a completely different mock draft as well. You will almost certainly win any head-to-head mock contest by just following what most people think. But if you are hoping to win a tournament with this strategy, you’re out of luck.

Mock Draft Strategy 5: Putting It All Together

When putting all these strategies together, we have to add one final dash of What I Think Teams Will Think. However much more I might like Polite than Ferrell, I have to accept that I am in the minority here. So here’s my current mock draft top-10, which is 100% certain to change before my next mock is released after the season ends:

1. Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State

2. Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama

3. Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson

4. Ed Oliver, DT Houston

5. Jonah Williams, OT Alabama

6. D.K. Metcalf, WR Ole Miss

7. Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

8. Greedy Williams, CB LSU

9. Byron Murphy, CB Washington

10. David Edwards, OT Wisconsin

I am assuming that Justin Herbert returns to school, Kyler Murray chooses football over baseball, and the Bucs mess everything up by taking a CB with length over the better football player.

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