Source: Euronews (2018) ‘Why the Iran nuclear deal will likely survive President Trump’

Out in the distant east lies another scapegoat for the failures of President Trump: The Islamic Republic of Iran. This nation, like all the others in George Bush’s “axis of evil”, is depicted by much of the media to be a threat to peace and freedom, which seems to be conveniently mutually intelligible with Western interests. As the US ups its aggression under President Trump, Iran is increasingly framed, like Korea, as another field for America to charge head-first into to ensure it gets its way. With that said, we can now begin to understand the mess that is Trump’s handling of the Iran deal.

The deal, stuck in 2015, liften economic sanctions on Iran in return for a reduction in the country’s enriched uranium stockpile (a key ingredient for nuclear weaponry) and permission for weapons inspectors to operate freely, was a landmark advance in bringing Iran closer into the international fold. By opening up commerce for goods such as oil, Iran became less of a pariah nation and the threat of another nation gaining nuclear armaments was calmed. The value of this deal is clear.

Anyone can see that the agreement would make Iran more accountable and cooperative, given the economic incentives (to the tune of between $4–8 billion more a month from oil revenue alone), which made the powder keg that is the Middle East at least somewhat easier to handle. The deal was twofold, as it robbed of America its beloved ‘strike before the worst could happen’ casus belli. Iran’s compliance showed it was not the monster some would have us believe, but a nation that desired stability. By no means is it some pacifist utopia, but with this deal signed it was evidently also not a contentious warmonger.

The nation that increasingly fits that bill is the US under President Trump, which now seems to want to jeopardize this vital agreement. Trump, with his usual panache, has declared the deal “insane” and “ridiculous”. He has publicly decried it since its inception, saying Obama has “no idea what he is doing” in a tweet from 2015. In fact, he has used his public platform to regularly denounce Iran, especially during his campaign. It comes as no surprise that he wants a new deal, yet that makes his proposal no less infuriating.

A few choice examples of Trump’s infamous “best words” from Twitter on Iran and the deal from 2017.

Granted, imperialist ambitions to control the world from thousands of kilometres away are rarely sensible ones, but sensibility is unlikely to halt the beloved Commander-in-Chief. Trump believes Iran should suffer further, that the US should shape a new deal in the image of American interests. This completely ignores the nuance that shaped the old deal and turned it into an effective balancing act that both fettered Iran’s nuclear ambitions and yet incentivized them to comply with it. Trump wants the former without the latter, in complete ignorance of the obvious, that the former requires the latter to have any effect.

We force sanctions on countries all the time: for examples, take Russia and the DPRK (North Korea). Both have seen national and individual assets in the US frozen, alongside diplomatic and trade sanctions. This has not prevented Vladimir Putin nor Kim Jong-un from continuing down their chosen paths, rather they have served as valuable evidence for their government’s claims that the US is trying to destroy them. The words of a certain deal leader come to mind here:

“Americans accuse me through global media of causing starvation in this country. But they somehow forget to tell the world that their embargo stopped us from importing food” - Kim Jong-il.

The US empowers these figures by legitimising their claims. For Iran, this could mean legitimising those who call for the country to become a nuclear power. Trump may not be able to comprehend this, but we must: he is genuinely threatening peace, not just in the Middle East, but potentially around the world. One rogue nuclear state, in the form of the DPRK, sent diplomats into a frenzy just months ago, before the recent détente with Kim Jong-un’s South Korean visit. Image what another could do, especially if no similar cooling of tensions could be achieved.

Iran is a further risk with its involvement in nearby proxy wars. From Syria to Yemen, Iran has vested interests in military strength over its long-time rival, Saudi Arabia. Nuclear weaponry is no joke, but as Pakistan and India have shown us, this is apparently no bar to states threatening their use. A deal that Iran has no reason to follow could thus give not only themselves reason to seek nuclear weaponry, but also Saudi Arabia, as well as any nation that feels threatened by a possible new Arms Race.

To sum up, we can see that imperialism threatens peace once again throughout the world. This is nothing new, nor surprising. The order of the day with the Trump administration has been non-stop aggression. Whether it will ever relent and show openness to compromise, we cannot know: unpredictability is another defining characteristic in this day. What we do know is that the Iran deal works (even Iran says so, saying abandoning the deal would be a “historic mistake”) because it strikes a balance, with a level of nuance Trump is seemingly allergic to. We know it must be protected, for the sake of the Middle East and general world stability.

Joseph Crossley (@JCrossleyUK)