The Nifty had another down month after a lousy March, closing down 3.6% for the month. This takes the annual return down to negative territory, to -1.2%.

April saw the index start from 8491, go all the way to 8800, and then fall back to 8181.

What comes in May?

While Monday started out well, Tuesday has been flat. Historical returns have been very volatile; May has a standard deviation of 10.1%, an average return of 0.9% and a median return of -1.9%.

In statistical terms this means: I can’t tell you anything about what we can expect for May.

So our prediction, in the spirit of someone great and probably dead by now: Prices will fluctuate.

The Sensex

This probably will help if you’re a Sensex fan:

And then, the CNX 500, for good measure, where the fall has been less torturous (only -0.4% for the year to date):

Till April: YTD Returns are Worst Since 2011

It’s early days yet, but till April, 2015 is the worst year since 2011.

This is going to be a fun year in the markets.

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