Has the popping of Champagne corks been premature?

We're referring to the defeat of Proposition 23, which has been hailed as the game-winning home run for California's climate change law.

But celebrations have turned to fears about the impact of what some have called its "evil twin" - Prop. 26, which passed Tuesday. That's the initiative relabeling environmental mitigation and other fees as taxes, requiring the virtually impossible to get two-thirds vote, thus starving state and local treasuries even further.

"In effect they will stop (AB32, the climate change law) with this," said Scott Hauge, president of Small Business California, who supports the law, "along with many of us in the business community." Hauge was referring to San Ramon's Chevron Corp. (which was "neutral" on Prop. 23) and the California Chamber of Commerce, both of which poured millions of dollars into Prop. 26.

According to a UCLA School of Law study last week, the initiative "could have substantial and wide-ranging impacts on implementation of the state's health, safety and environmental laws," including AB32. Noting that the state imposes regulatory fees for such programs, the study said Prop. 26 will "make it harder to fund these programs in the future."

Responding to reporters' questions on the matter, Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the state Air Resources Board, said, "We have an administrative fee in place now under AB32. As far as any future fees and how they would fit into a regulatory program, that's something we would have to take a look at on a case-by-case basis. Undoubtedly there will be issues raised as a result of (Prop. 26) passing."

But, said Nichols, whose agency is in charge of implementing the law beginning next year, "We do not believe our efforts will be derailed as a result of Proposition 26 passing."

MBA BY THE BAY: See how an MBA could change your life with SFGATE's interactive directory of Bay Area programs.

One thing is for sure: There will be lawsuits.

City scores: I asked Steve Falk, CEO of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, to rate the outcome of San Francisco's propositions.

His major winners:

-- Prop. G, eliminating Muni drivers' guarantee they'll be at least the second-highest-paid in the nation: "It will re-establish Muni's control over its largest costs and will have a lasting impact on the city budget and the efficiency of Muni."

-- Prop. L (sit/lie): "A gigantic leap forward for San Francisco. This will empower law enforcement to address the harmful and aggressive street culture that has been hurting so many businesses and residents for far too long across the city."

And biggest losers:

-- Prop. N, raising taxes on certain property transactions: "This will only mean higher taxes for residential and commercial property owners at a time when businesses and homeowners are struggling."

-- Prop. K, extending the hotel tax to online bookings: "Unfortunately, its defeat continues the uncertainty over collection of hotel taxes from online sites that may cost the city's general fund over $10 million a year."

(Side note: The campaign against both Props. K and J, which would have raised the hotel tax in general, were funded largely by Expedia.com, currently embroiled in a legal battle with the city over past unpaid taxes.)

As to Prop. B, which would have increased city employees' pension and health insurance contributions: "San Francisco likely averted a costly legal challenge with its defeat, but we are left back at square one when it comes to addressing the ticking pension time bomb. The chamber hopes that the defeat will result in more meaningful - and collaborative - pension reform in the future."

Should we hold our breath?

A votre sante: While incoming House Speaker John Boehner said he is looking to repeal the "monstrosity" of the health care overhaul, California is already breathing life into it. It can already boast the nation's first health insurance exchange and a federally approved Medicaid waiver program among the reform's first steps.

Hear what the law means for Bay Area business and how it's being implemented here from a panel of experts at Santa Clara's Affymetrix on Monday. They include Herb Schultz, regional director for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Marian Mulkey, director of health reform at the California HealthCare Foundation, and Tami Graham, director of global benefits at Intel Corp.

The two-hour event, from 1 to 3 p.m., is sponsored by Kaiser Permanente and hosted by the Silicon Valley Leadership Group. Details and registration at sfgate.com/ZKNT.