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America’s gun rights activists have been so successful, they’re running out of territory to fight over. Pushing for more gun-carrying on university campuses “kind of indicates you’re in engaged in a mop-up action after you’ve won the war”, said Dave Kopel, an attorney and prominent gun rights advocate.

But as 80,000 National Rifle Association members and their families begin to gather in Louisville, Kentucky, on Thursday for the group’s annual meeting, they are not all feeling secure in their victories. After years of dodging the issue, some Democratic politicians are once again focusing on the toll of gun violence. A better-funded gun control movement is playing defense in state capitals across the country – and has had some success in getting voters to approve gun control policies directly via ballot measure.

The death of Justice Antonin Scalia earlier this year has also put the what many have called the most NRA-friendly decision in supreme court history on uncertain ground.



The court’s 2008 District of Columbia v Heller decision found that Americans have an individual right to own firearms for personal protection and struck down the District of Columbia’s handgun ban. But Heller was decided 5-4, with more liberal justices arguing against its sweeping interpretation of the second amendment. The outcome of the 2016 election will determine whether Scalia’s replacement on the court is another gun-rights-friendly conservative, or a more liberal justice who might shift the balance of the court.

Jennifer Baker, an NRA spokeswoman, said the organization sees “a very real risk” that Heller could be overturned.

“Our supporters really understand the importance of a supreme court nominee in terms of their rights. They make the connection,” she said. “The stakes have never been higher than they have been in terms of this election.”