2015 hurricane season: New prediction

Forecasters are now even more confident that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be a quiet one, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

In an update to its May forecast, the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now says there is a 90 percent chance that this hurricane season, which runs through November, will be below-normal. That is the highest confidence level given by the NOAA since the agency first began releasing seasonal hurricane outlooks in 1998.

That prediction translates into a 70 percent chance of between six and 10 named storms, the forecasters say. Of those, as many as four could become hurricanes, but only one has a shot at turning into a major hurricane. A typical season has 12 named storms and six hurricanes, three of which are considered major.

However, Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the center, reminds residents that just because a major hurricane is unlikely, it is not impossible.

“Regardless of our call for below-normal storm activity, people along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should remain prepared and vigilant, especially now that the peak months of the hurricane season have started,” Bell said in a statement.

The continued strengthening of El Niño, and the atmospheric conditions associated with it, combined with cooler than average sea-surface temperatures are suppressing the likelihood of a busy hurricane season, according to the NOAA.

A pair of tropical storms have already made landfall in the U.S. this year — Ana in South Carolina in May and Bill in Texas in June.

Russ Zimmer: 732-557-5748, razimmer@app.com