Coal in 2018

The US saw about 13 GW of coal retirements in 2018 as total coal capacity dropped from 256.5GW to 243.5GW - a drop of about 5%.

Coal share of total generation in 2018 - 27% - was the lowest recorded in EIA data which goes back to 1950.

Total coal generation in the US for 2018 was about 1,146 TW - the lowest level seen since the late 1970s. Note: coal generation peaked in 2007 at 2,107 TWh. Since 2014 coal generation has dropped by 435TWh or about 109TWh per year.

Coal in 2019

You might expect there to be a "pause" in this coal slowdown in 2019 after such a steep drop in recent years. However, 2019 is shaping up to be another tough year for coal.

Coal Capacity

Coal retirements - which will likely be less than 2018 numbers - continue at a strong clip with more than 2,000MW of coal retiring in February. Significant in this list are the two units at Bruce Mansfield which originally were meant to be retired in 2021. Expect many more retirements this year - including the 3 units (2,250 MW) at Navajo.

Coal Production

Below is from the most recent weekly coal production EIA report. Coal production is down 9.2% YTD.

For the week ended March 30, 2019 Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 10.5 million short tons (mmst)

This production estimate is 6.3% lower than last week's estimate and 26.9% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2018

U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 168.7 mmst, 9.2% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2018

Coal Generation

Data from EIA for Jan shows coal generation down by 18TWh vs last year - 15% Y-Y. Much of this drop is likely weather related but some of it can be attributed to the drop in coal capacity over the last year. There is a chance that coal generation in 2019 will fall below 1,000 TWh . Coal in 2008 was about 2,000 TWh - so this would mean a drop of 1,000 TWh in 11 years.

If we could continue cutting coal at this pace - we would be coal free in another 11 years - 2030. Its not likely that states like West Virginia or Wyoming will be totally coal-free by 2030 - but there is a good chance that most of the rest of the country will be.

My best guesstimate - Coal generation in 2030 will be less than 200 TWh for the US.