Decades of conservative rule in oil-rich province ended in 2015, but energy crisis may change that

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

When Canada’s leftwing New Democratic party launched a manifesto promising carbon taxes, coal plant closures and welfare spending in the heartland of country’s oil industry, few thought they could win.

But in 2015, the party ended 40 years of conservative rule in the province of Alberta with an unexpected victory that seemed to mark a seismic shift in Canadian politics.

Four years later, the NDP leader, Rachel Notley, is fighting for her political life in a regional election forcing voters to make a choice between today’s economy or the environment of the future.

Notley is asking voters to believe that both economy and environment can thrive. But her main rival, Jason Kenney, has seized on deep economic frustrations, promising that his United Conservative party will breathe new life into the ailing oil industry.

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In the years since Notley became premier, she has been forced to navigate a crash in global oil prices – which cost the province more than 100,000 jobs – and a huge forest fire, which became the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. Meanwhile, her spending on childcare and social welfare programs have left the historically debt-averse province in the red.

“People like and respect Rachel Notley,” said Shauna Wilton, a professor of political science at the University of Alberta. “But there’s a segment of the population that blames her for the oil downturn and sees the carbon tax as the source of all of Alberta’s problems.”

An ongoing energy crisis has forced Alberta to sell its crude oil for fire-sale prices. Pipelines that were promised to residents have yet to materialize. And resource companies – the backbone of the province’s economy – are shedding jobs.

And while voters have been sympathetic to the hand Notley was dealt, the dramatic slowdown has tested even the province’s progressive residents.

“I’m a social worker and a yogi. I’m as left as they come,” said Cheryl, a mother of two who lives in a small town near Calgary. “And I’m very likely voting for the United Conservative party.”

Recent polling has the New Democrats nearly ten percentage points behind United Conservatives, which was born from the 2017 merge of two regional right-of-centre parties.

Kenney’s pledge to boost investment in the oil industry resonates for many in the region, which has been hard hit by the oil downturn. “The rates of domestic violence skyrocket when people are not working,” said Cheryl.

But experts have questioned whether a return to the heyday of oil sands expansion is even possible, given the likelihood of a global shift to renewable energy in coming decades.

“We should be diversifying our economy for the next time a downturn hits,” said Mark Mielke, corporate lawyer in Calgary who plans to vote for the NDP, “not cutting taxes for corporations.”

The prospect of a conservative victory has also prompted worries that progress made on the environment under Notley will be rolled back – a fear compounded by a recent report that found Canada is warming at a rate twice the global average.

Alberta – by far the largest polluter in the country – has been a critical ally for the prime minister, Justin Trudeau, and his government in their nationwide plan to fight climate change.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Alberta – the heartland of Canada’s oil industry – is by far the biggest polluter in the country. Photograph: Artur Widak/NurPhoto/Getty Images

But Alberta’s cooperation came with a cost: in exchange for a carbon tax, Notley wanted promises of support for construction of the contentious TransMountain pipeline running from Alberta’s oil sands to the Pacific coast.

Despite the federal government going as far as buying the project, the pipeline remains unfinished and Notley has been forced to shoulder much of the blame.

In an attempt to assuage local frustration, the premier has taken unprecedented steps to prop up oil prices – buying locomotives to ship crude by rail and enforcing rare production cuts for energy companies.

There is some hope for environmentally conscious voters: attempts by Kenney to scale back the carbon tax would probably trigger a bitter fight with federal government, which has a minimum set of carbon emission standards a province must meet.

Meanwhile, Kenney has come under criticism for his seeming inability to rid his party of extremist elements. Kenney’s troubles became evident in a tense interview with the conservative radio host Charles Adler. As Adler ran through a list of offensive and racist behaviour from numerous UCP candidates – and even by Kenney himself, he asked the conservative leader: “Why are the knuckle-draggers attracted to your party?”

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Several UCP candidates have withdrawn in recent weeks and others have been forced to walk back xenophobic and homophobic statements – including one who said homosexual love isn’t “real love” and compared women who had have abortions to murderers.

Such incidents, however, have done little to derail Kenney’s prospects in rural areas of the province – and even in larger and more diverse cities.

“I think [voters] should assess whether an extra few hundred dollars in your pocket is really worth sacrificing what you truly believe is right,” said Mielke. “This is a choice between a progressive plan to support our oil industry and diversify our economy … or a return to the sort of ‘old boys’ school of politics that’s really ruled Alberta for the last 30 years.”

But for others, the choice is less clear – and less satisfying.

“There’s things from every party that everybody wants – and that’s the pickle. Nobody aligns perfectly with any party,” said Cheryl. She admitted that the socially conservative elements of Kenney’s party are a “concern” within her social circle, but concluded: “You have to choose your battles and what’s most important to you or your family that day.”