Collie resident Gary Flatt in the main street of Collie. Credit:Tony McDonough Instead he'll be voting for Pauline Hanson's One Nation: "She's a force to be reckoned with now." The Harley Davidson enthusiast – who has a bushy beard, tattoos covering both arms and gold rings on his fingers – supports weekend penalty rates and big infrastructure spending. But he's sceptical of renewable power and Muslims ("The ones in the cities are not integrating. They should fit in or f--- off.") "We should stop all foreign aid, freeze all politicians' wages, get rid of the deficit, drug and alcohol testing for everyone on the dole," he says. "We need a Donald Trump in Australia."

Pauline Hanson on the Hustings in Kalgoorlie. Credit:Dean Sewell According to Perth-based election analyst William Bowe, Flatt's hometown of Collie has much in common with the rust-bucket areas in the US that turned for Trump. "If there is a One Nation boilover anywhere, I've got my eye on that seat," he said recently. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with Julie Bishop and Premier Colin Barnett. Credit:Andrew Meares Home to two mines and three power stations, Collie has been hit hard by the downturn in coal prices. Last year local mine operator Griffin Coal, which was taken over by an Indian conglomerate in 2011, handed workers a 40 per cent pay cut.

"There is a lot of anger in the town at the moment," says Darren Flatt, Gary's nephew, who joins us for a chat outside the local bakery. Colin Barnett, Brendon Grylls, Pauline Hanson and Mark McGowan. Illustration by Alan Moir. He was laid off by Griffin two years ago after 27 years service and says the mine owners are "mongrels". Both his apprentice sons would like to stay in town and work but don't think there will be jobs for them. Collie resident Darren Flat. Credit:Tony McDonough

There's clearly fertile ground for populist politicians like Hanson in towns like Collie. Many homes proudly fly the Aussie flag; on the main street one man passing by has the southern cross on his cap, another on his singlet. There's no political correctness either. It's "skimpy" night at the Victoria Hotel when Fairfax Media visits for dinner on International Women's Day. The barmaid wears a red bikini top, sequined knickers and knee high socks. But – despite all the hype – it's far from certain One Nation's seeds will bloom on election day in the west. Hanson has dominated media coverage and spent the past week travelling across the state, building up expectations of a thumping result. But, rather than the tour de force she had hoped, it's been a train wreck.

Hanson's comments on Sunday's Insiders program questioning vaccination caused an uproar, overshadowing anything she had to say about state issues. Four days later, Hanson admitted she was wrong to say parents could test their children for adverse reactions to vaccines. Since then, she's contradicted state leader Colin Ticknell on whether she supported taking GST revenue from her home state of Queensland and giving it to WA ("I think Colin Ticknell has had a senior's moment," she said.) A former state president and his wife, aged 87 and 79, announced they were suing Hanson for age discrimination, claiming she had sacked them because they were "too old". Throughout the campaign, Hanson has been dogged by questions about her preference deal with the Liberal Party. She insists the preference swap was necessary for One Nation to break into the state Parliament. But the decision infuriated candidates such as Collie-Preston contender David Miller, an electrical fitter and traditional Labor voter who spoke out against the deal.

Rather than giving the major parties the middle finger, Hanson was now cutting backroom deals with them. It made her look like something dangerous if you're fishing for votes in the anti-establishment pond: a regular politician. ---- Oppositions don't win elections; governments lose them. It's a political truism both Liberal Premier Colin Barnett and Labor leader Mark McGowan have been happy to prove accurate during the campaign. When Barnett became premier in 2008, George W Bush was US President, iPhones had just hit the market and Amy Winehouse's Rehab was cleaning up at the Grammys. During his tenure he's seen prime ministers come and go and the mining boom rise and fall. Winning a third term would be an almighty challenge for anyone – especially with unemployment at its highest levels since 2002. But the WA Liberals have all but dared voters to choose someone else.

Barnett, who looks and sounds tired after eight years in power, has announced he will not serve a full term if re-elected. Voters haven't been presented with a clear succession plan, although his deputy, Liza Harvey, would be expected to take over. The Liberals are also seeking a mandate to sell off half off Western Power, the state's electricity distributor. It's the type of unpopular move premiers usually make when they have just arrived in office and have political capital to burn. While Barnett needed a viable plan to bring down the state's debt, the sell-off has energised the union movement, which has bombarded the airwaves with anti-privatisation ads. Peter Abetz, the Liberal member for the suburban Perth seat of Southern River, says: "We haven't done a good job explaining how it works. "It was a total non-issue before, but now the union scare campaign is starting to get traction."

McGowan, by contrast, has played it safe, offering little to scare or excite voters. For Labor, its plan to sell off naming rights to Perth Arena and Perth Stadium – announced late in the campaign – looks like daring policy making. McGowan's interview with the ABC's Leigh Sales this week, in which he repeatedly refused to drop his talking points and answer the question, is already seen as a textbook example of political obfuscation. Nevertheless, Labor looks on track to win the necessary 10 seats required to win government. By Thursday night, Liberals were privately forecasting a landslide loss 13 to 17 seats and recriminations had already started flying over the One Nation preference deal. Critics argue that the dozen-odd battleground seats are in Perth – not in the regions where One Nation draws most of its support.

Between 2001 and 2011, the number of migrants living in Perth soared by 51 per cent – far higher than in Sydney or Melbourne. Over a third of the city's residents were born overseas. The city's increasingly cosmopolitan nature explains why Liberals such as Eleni Evangel, the member for the inner-city seat of Perth, have distanced themselves from the deal. Even Barnett has said he was "uncomfortable" with it, and stressed he has never met Hanson. The arrangement also incensed Brendon Grylls' National Party, turning a tense relationship into open warfare between supposed alliance partners. Liberals also point out that One Nation in WA is essentially a start-up party with no campaigning infrastructure and few volunteers. If there's no-one manning polling booths to hand out One Nation's how-to-vote cards, they ask, then what's the point of a preference deal?

"There was already a lot of ill feeling towards the government and the One Nation deal sealed that," a senior Liberal says. "There are lessons for Malcolm Turnbull from the WA experiment with Hanson." Since the July election, the federal Coalition has taken a soft approach to One Nation, with Industry Minister Arthur Sinodinos famously describing Hanson as "more sophisticated" than the past. Now there's a growing awareness that – while treating her respectfully and negotiating with her on legislation – the Liberal and National parties need to be more assertive in combating Hanson in the battle of ideas. Already this week, Turnbull has been more critical than at any time since the election, slamming Hanson's comments on vaccinations and Muslims.

WA Liberals say Turnbull and his fellow colleagues have taken the state for granted, and that a big defeat on Saturday will only add to his leadership woes. Turnbull visited WA just once in the campaign, a trip judged to be a disaster when he refused to spell out how much GST WA could expect under new arrangements. "Liberals here are not used to losing," a WA Liberal source says. "This will be a bitter pill for us to swallow." ----

Back at Collie, shire president Wayne Sanford sighs when asked about reports the place has become a "ghost town". Western Australia isn't Wisconsin, and simple narratives equating Collie to rust-belt America will lead you astray. Yes, Collie has suffered hard times but Sanford points out the new central park, new art gallery and a refurbished local pool – most funded by mining royalties. "All the parties are coming here offering bucketloads of money," he says. "Collie feels like the centre of the universe at the moment."

Sanford says sitting Labor member Mick Murray, a former mine worker who has held the seat since 2001, is "very popular" in the community. Loading When Darren Flatt's son lost his apprenticeship at the local mine, Murray called in the bosses and got them to hire him back. Unlike his uncle Gary, Darren and his wife won't be voting for One Nation on Saturday. They're disillusioned, they're pessimistic – but they're sticking with Labor. For now.