New Zealand Sea Level Rise A series of maps depicting New Zealand in various sea-level rise scenarios

By Jonathan Musther



The following maps are intended to provide an insight into the future of the New Zealand coastline as a result of sea-level rise. The visual nature of maps, and the familiarity we have with our current coastline, combine to give a very human glimpse of how generations of New Zealanders may be impacted by climate change.

These maps present three scenarios; 10, 25, and 80 metre sea-level rise.

The 10 metre scenario is intended to show a sea-level rise which might result from rapid collapse of any one, or a combination of parts of the Greenland, West Antarctic and East Antarctic ice sheets. Evidence suggests that these ice-sheets are becoming increasingly unstable, and while their current and potential contributions to sea-level rise remain to be determined, they are certainly capable of delivering a 10 metre rise. Ice sheet collapse is extremely difficult to predict, the 10 metre rise could happen within the 21st century, or further into the future. A 10m sea-level rise would displace 14% of New Zealand's population (600,000 people)*.

The 25 metre scenario is intended to reflect a significant but far from complete melting of the Earth’s freshwater ice. It is likely the Greenland ice sheet would be largely melted, but Antarctica would retain over half of its present ice. This scenario would likely follow the 10 metre rise as the ice sheets continued to collapse and melt. The timeframe for this scenario is extremely difficult to predict. While a 25 metre sea-level rise could occur within the 21st century, it is more likely that it would be in future centuries. A 25m sea-level rise would displace 43% of New Zealand's population (1.8 million people)*.

The 80 metre scenario represents complete melting of the Earth’s ice sheets and major glaciers. This would most likely require a significant warming of the climate (at least 5 degrees). While this scenario would probably be played out over several centuries, it is certainly possible if global climate warming continues. More recent estimations of the ice contained in the antarctic ice sheets suggest that this scenario should use a sea level rise of ~70m. An 80m sea-level rise would displace 80% of New Zealand's population (3.4 million people)*. *Based on 2013 census data.

Final thoughts: Estimates of sea-level rise are extremely complex, but ongoing research and increased understanding is leading us to believe that widely publicised estimates (such as those from IPCC reports) are far too conservative. Historical evidence suggests that ice sheets may respond to climate changes very rapidly, and recent data show increased rates of melting and growing instability. Predicting climate change is phenomenally difficult; we are now well outside the sphere of collective of human experience and expertise. Sea-level rise is happening now, and its rate will likely take us by surprise.

Interactive Online Maps These interactive maps are the best way to explore the sea-level rise maps on your computer.

If you require higher resolution maps for a specific region, see the downloadable maps below.

Sea-level rise scenario

10 metre rise 25 metre rise 80 metre rise New Zealand - landscape Shows broad changes to the landscape View View View New Zealand - landscape and 2014 coastline As above, but also shows the 2014 coastline View View View New Zealand - Population Density Shows how population centres are affected View View View New Zealand - Land Use Capability Shows how more and less productive land is affected View View View New Zealand North Island - Topographic Shows roads, rivers, towns, place names, contours etc View View View New Zealand South Island - Topographic Shows roads, rivers, towns, place names, contours etc View View View

Map Images for Download or Print These maps can be downloaded to your computer, and are suitable for printing. To download a map to your computer, right click (Command+click on a mac) and select "Save link as" or "Save target as". These are high resolution images suitable for printing to A3 (with the exception of Population and Land Use Capability maps which can be printed to A2).

Sea-level rise scenario

10 metre rise 25 metre rise 80 metre rise New Zealand - landscape View/Download View/Download View/Download New Zealand - landscape and 2014 coastline View/Download View/Download View/Download New Zealand - Population Density View/Download View/Download View/Download New Zealand - Land Use Capability View/Download View/Download View/Download North Island - landscape View/Download View/Download View/Download North Island - landscape and 2014 coastline View/Download View/Download View/Download South Island - landscape View/Download View/Download View/Download South Island - landscape and 2014 coastline View/Download View/Download View/Download Auckland - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Christchurch - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Dunedin - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Hamilton - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Hawke's Bay - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Invercargill - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Nelson - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Palmerston North - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Taranaki - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Tauranga - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Wairarapa - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download Wellington - Topographic View/Download View/Download View/Download All maps are drawn using NZGD2000 Transverse Mercator Projection. Downloadable maps are at a scale of 1:25,000. Appropriate credits are provided on all map images - general credit to Landcare Research, Land Information New Zealand and Statistics New Zealand.





New Zealand Sea-Level Rise Maps by Jonathan Musther are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Contact: jon@musther.net +64 (0) 27 749 6350