Welcome to Week 1 of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity, then this is the right place for you. In this week’s article, I will discuss some less-obvious players that I love and hate for this week in Fantasy Football (you don’t need me to tell you to play Antonio Brown against the Browns).

Week 1 Studs

Jordan Howard: As the least mathematically-knowledgeable member of the Model 284 team, allow me to take you through some simple addition: 1 Average run defense + a top 15 running back in 2016 + no other play-makers on offense = a LOT of touches.

Doug Baldwin: Anyone who owned Baldwin in fantasy last year knows he is one of the most up-and-down fantasy receivers in the league. What you may not realize is that he is coming off of back-to-back top-10 WR finishes. While he is a high risk player, he also has big upside. Baldwins risk will be offset by a Green Bay defense that allowed over 17 points above expectation to WR over the last 7 games of 2016. Baldwin is a must start this week.

Frank Gore: The loss of Andrew Luck in week 1 is a big time blow for the Colts. They know as well as the rest of us that Scott Tolzien isn’t a quarter of the player that Luck is. So, as a play caller, what do you do? You give the ball to your ultra-consistent, fringe hall-of-fame hopeful at running back. Duh. Old man Gore is going to have the chance to turn back the clock to when he was one of the most powerful and dangerous runners in the NFL. He probably won’t return to elite form, but with a fumble-prone rookie running back behind him, you can practically bank on a 15+ touch day with near exclusive red-zone usage (if they ever get there).

Kareem Hunt: jk – but in case you didn’t see it, the Chiefs rookie put up a 40-burger last night: 17-148-1 coupled with a 5-98-2 receiving line. All aboard the hype train.

Week 1 Duds

Ty Montgomery: I have talked to a lot of people who are really high on Montgomery this year, and for the life of me I can’t figure out why. I can understand some theoretical excitement surrounding a converted receiver catching passes from A-Rodg out of the backfield, but were talking about a player with 80 career NFL rushes. Sure, that’s 80 more than any rookie RBs. However, I would argue that there is a big difference between Dalvin Cook’s outlook with 288 rushes last year at Florida State, and Ty Montgomery’s outlook with 119 rushes in his 6 years of college + NFL football. If he were on any my fantasy teams, he would find himself at the end of my bench against a Seattle run defense whose reputation speaks for itself, not to mention the fact that they just added one of the best run stuffing DTs in the league in Sheldon Richardson.

Adrian Peterson: Peterson is at a dangerous place in his career. He had trouble finding a team that was willing to pay him this past off season, is in a crowded backfield, and his ability to stay on the field remains a question mark. He needs to show that he can stay healthy, and be at least a shadow of the dominant runner from years past. Peterson has made it clear he intends to “stick it” to his former team on Monday night. It’s easy to fall into the fairy tail of an all-time great extracting his revenge on the team who let him walk, but do we really believe that a 32 year-old RB so prone to negative runs is going to “stick it” to anybody this year? With only 20 games played in his last 3 seasons, lets just call it a win if “ purple Gold Jesus” makes it to Week 2.

Dak Prescott: There seems to be a common misconception of Dak Prescott as a top 10 QB talent. It’s true, there is a good chance Dak could be that some day, but this Sunday isn’t that day. He will be going up against a tough Giants defense that wields one of the NFL’s best secondaries and gave up 4 points below expectation to QBs down the stretch last year. Oh yeah, and Ezekiel Elliot is apparently playing this week. If I was the coach in Dallas, I would be getting every touch out of my young workhorse before I lose him for 6 weeks.