He is seen as more in sync with an electorate that wants more action on climate change and supports marriage equality. Preferred Liberal leader ... Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen Because much of Turnbull's support is coming from those who say they will not vote for the Liberal Party under current circumstances, a switch to the former leader should do more than one to any of the alternatives to improve the Coalition's prospects. If the latest Fairfax-Ipsos national poll restores Turnbull's standing as the only viable alternative if the Coalition is to change before the election, there are at least two reasons it also makes that decision harder. First, Turnbull still trails Abbott as preferred leader among Coalition voters by eight points, with both men dropping five points since February.

Actions that have enhanced Turnbull's appeal among progressives, like distancing himself from Abbott's alarmist rhetoric on Islamic State, have further alienated him from conservatives. Frontbencher Scott Morrison said he rejected Tony Abbott's offer of the Treasurer's role because it would "throw Joe Hockey under a bus". Credit:Andrew Meares Second, Liberal MPs would have to weigh up whether any immediate lift in voter support under Turnbull would continue until polling day, given the hostility some in the party have towards him. However, things cannot continue as they are, with the PM's disapproval only marginally better than it was in February, at 59 per cent, and clear signs of a breakdown in cabinet. All the pressure was supposed to be on Bill Shorten, whose ratings have slightly recovered from record lows to an approval rating of minus 10, compared with Abbott's minus 24. Yet, Shorten leads Abbott as preferred PM by 45 to 39.

This weekend, Turnbull, in effect, repudiated Abbott's claim that last week's marathon party room meeting "decided" to put the question of marriage equality to the people, should the Coalition win the election. "Neither the Cabinet nor the party room have considered this matter," Turnbull said of the question of a public vote in a weekend blog. He also highlighted the futility of Abbott continuing to rule out a referendum on same-sex marriage, asserting a constitutional amendment that "marriage" could extend to same-sex couples would leave Parliament's powers unchanged but cost taxpayers $100 million. Loading One imperative is to settle the process when cabinet meets on Monday, but Abbott needs much more than that.

One conversation changer would be to announce that the Canning by-election would be held on September 19 and hope that this focused everyone, in the Coalition's minds, on the things that matter.