April 11, 2017 - Dems Hold Double-Digit Lead In Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Kaine Has Big Lead In Early Look At 2018 Senate Race

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Virginia Democrats are locked in a tight primary in this year's governor's race, but either contender tops the lead Republican, former GOP National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie, by double digits, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.





In the Democratic primary for governor, former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello has 25 percent to Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam's 20 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. Another 51 percent are undecided.





Gillespie leads the Republican primary with 28 percent, followed by Prince William County Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart at 12 percent, State Sen. Frank Wagner with 7 percent and 51 percent undecided.





In possible general election matchups:

Perriello tops Gillespie 46 - 33 percent;

Northam leads Gillespie 44 - 33 percent. Margins are similar in other possible matchups.

None of the candidates is well known, as the number of Virginia voters who don't know enough about the candidates to form an opinion of them ranges from 49 percent for Gillespie to 77 percent for Wagner.





"Two months before Virginia Democrats and Republicans pick their candidates for governor, the heavy front-runner in each primary is 'undecided,'" said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"Although the race for the Republican nomination is far from over, former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie is solidly ahead among those who name a candidate.





"Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam originally had been expected to coast to the nomination, but former Congressman Tom Perriello is inching ahead."





"Seven months before the November election, the early signs are very positive for the Democrats. Both Democrats have double-digit leads over any GOP candidate," Brown added.





In the Virginia governor's race between Perriello and Gillespie, women back the Democrat 52 - 27 percent. Men are divided, with 40 percent for Gillespie and 39 percent for Perriello. White voters go 42 percent for Gillespie and 39 percent for Perriello, while non-white voters go Democratic 64 - 14 percent. Independent voters back the Democrat 39 - 27 percent.





In the Northam-Gillespie face-off, women go Democratic 49 - 28 percent, while men go 39 percent for the Republican and 38 percent for the Democrat. White voters go 41 percent for Gillespie and 38 percent for Northam. Non-white voters go Democratic 58 - 16 percent.





Trump, McAuliffe Approval Ratings





Virginia voters disapprove 57 - 36 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans, white voters with no college degree and white men are the only listed party, gender, educational, age or racial groups to approve.





Voters approve 52 - 32 percent of the job Gov. Terry McAuliffe is doing.





U.S. Sen. Mark Warner gets a 62 - 27 percent approval rating.





2018 U.S. Senate Race





In an early look at the 2018 U.S. Senate race in Virginia, Democratic incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine has strong leads over two possible Republican challengers:

56 - 35 percent over Laura Ingraham;

57 - 33 percent over Carly Fiorina.

Kaine has a 58 - 34 percent job approval and a 57 - 36 percent favorability rating. Fiorina gets a negative 26 - 36 percent favorability rating, with 37 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. For Ingraham, 52 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.





From April 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,115 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 435 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 483 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Gillespie, Corey Stewart, and Frank Wagner, for whom would you vote?

REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS.............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Gillespie 28% 22% 27% 30% 29% 33% 22% 31% 22% Stewart 12 15 19 7 8 11 12 13 10 Wagner 7 5 4 8 8 9 4 8 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 2 4 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 51 57 50 50 51 44 60 45 60

2. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello and Ralph Northam, for whom would you vote?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Perriello 25% 33% 25% 24% 31% 22% Northam 20 18 23 20 17 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 51 48 50 52 49 53

3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Ed Gillespie the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Northam 44% 2% 83% 39% 38% 49% 44% 31% Gillespie 33 83 5 30 39 28 36 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 DK/NA 19 13 10 28 19 20 18 18 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Northam 53% 45% 43% 39% 33% 43% 38% 58% Gillespie 24 33 36 39 46 37 41 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 2 3 - 2 4 DK/NA 18 18 18 19 17 19 18 20

4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Corey Stewart the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Northam 43% 3% 85% 36% 37% 49% 43% 30% Stewart 30 82 1 24 36 24 34 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 3 3 3 1 DK/NA 23 13 10 34 22 23 20 26 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Northam 49% 45% 45% 39% 33% 41% 37% 60% Stewart 21 29 31 37 42 34 38 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 2 2 2 3 1 2 4 DK/NA 23 22 20 21 21 24 23 21

5. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Frank Wagner the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Northam 43% 3% 85% 33% 35% 49% 44% 29% Wagner 30 76 3 25 36 24 31 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 4 2 2 1 DK/NA 24 20 10 36 24 23 22 26 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Northam 45% 45% 44% 40% 32% 43% 37% 57% Wagner 27 27 32 32 43 31 36 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 2 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 2 3 1 2 5 DK/NA 23 24 19 25 21 26 23 22

6. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Ed Gillespie the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Perriello 46% 2% 89% 39% 39% 52% 44% 34% Gillespie 33 85 3 27 40 27 37 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 18 11 8 29 17 19 18 16 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Perriello 55% 47% 46% 42% 34% 44% 39% 64% Gillespie 23 32 37 38 47 36 42 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 19 19 15 17 16 18 17 20

7. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Corey Stewart the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Perriello 45% 3% 87% 38% 40% 51% 43% 33% Stewart 31 84 2 26 38 25 35 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 20 12 11 31 18 22 20 20 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Perriello 55% 42% 47% 41% 34% 42% 38% 64% Stewart 24 32 33 37 45 34 40 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 1 3 1 2 2 DK/NA 18 22 17 20 18 22 20 19

8. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Frank Wagner the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Perriello 43% 3% 86% 34% 36% 50% 41% 33% Wagner 32 82 3 27 39 26 35 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 - 4 4 2 2 1 DK/NA 21 14 10 33 21 21 21 18 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Perriello 45% 44% 47% 41% 32% 42% 37% 59% Wagner 31 28 33 37 46 35 40 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 1 2 1 2 4 DK/NA 20 23 17 19 19 21 20 21

9. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 24% 8% 44% 20% 23% 25% 28% 19% Unfavorable 8 14 3 10 11 6 10 9 Hvn't hrd enough 66 77 51 69 64 68 61 71 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 21% 27% 27% 24% 25% 23% 24% 27% Unfavorable 5 12 10 7 12 7 10 6 Hvn't hrd enough 72 60 62 69 63 69 66 65 REFUSED 2 1 1 - 1 1 1 3

10. Is your opinion of Tom Perriello favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 24% 5% 43% 19% 25% 24% 27% 18% Unfavorable 11 23 4 11 12 11 15 13 Hvn't hrd enough 63 71 51 69 61 65 58 68 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 25% 24% 25% 23% 24% 21% 22% 29% Unfavorable 5 15 12 14 15 13 14 5 Hvn't hrd enough 68 60 61 62 60 65 62 63 REFUSED 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 3

11. Is your opinion of Ed Gillespie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 23% 44% 8% 26% 28% 19% 26% 24% Unfavorable 26 8 46 23 24 27 30 19 Hvn't hrd enough 49 48 45 50 46 53 42 55 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 20% 20% 26% 27% 30% 21% 25% 19% Unfavorable 29 29 26 21 24 25 25 28 Hvn't hrd enough 49 50 47 50 44 52 48 51 REFUSED 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 2

12. Is your opinion of Corey Stewart favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 12% 26% 3% 12% 15% 10% 13% 14% Unfavorable 12 1 19 14 13 10 16 6 Hvn't hrd enough 75 72 78 73 70 80 71 79 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 7% 16% 14% 13% 15% 12% 13% 11% Unfavorable 15 12 12 8 12 10 11 13 Hvn't hrd enough 78 72 72 78 72 78 75 76 REFUSED - - 2 - 1 - 1 -

13. Is your opinion of Frank Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 11% 19% 4% 13% 16% 7% 11% 14% Unfavorable 10 3 17 8 8 12 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 77 77 77 78 74 80 77 79 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 9% 8% 15% 13% 17% 7% 12% 9% Unfavorable 12 11 9 8 7 11 9 12 Hvn't hrd enough 76 77 75 78 74 81 78 76 REFUSED 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 3

14. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and Laura Ingraham the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Kaine 56% 5% 98% 51% 48% 63% 54% 40% Ingraham 35 88 1 33 43 27 39 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 6 1 12 6 9 5 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Kaine 64% 59% 55% 52% 42% 53% 48% 76% Ingraham 24 33 38 41 49 38 44 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 1 2 - 1 2 DK/NA 10 4 6 6 6 8 7 7

15. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and Carly Fiorina the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Kaine 57% 4% 98% 54% 50% 63% 55% 40% Fiorina 33 88 - 29 41 26 39 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 3 DK/NA 7 6 1 11 6 8 5 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Kaine 64% 59% 57% 50% 43% 53% 48% 77% Fiorina 23 32 36 40 49 36 42 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 3 2 1 2 2 2 5 DK/NA 7 5 6 8 6 9 7 5

16. Is your opinion of Tim Kaine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 57% 9% 97% 53% 51% 62% 57% 41% Unfavorable 36 88 - 37 43 29 40 51 Hvn't hrd enough 7 3 3 9 4 9 3 6 REFUSED 1 - - 2 2 - - 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 58% 60% 58% 53% 44% 54% 49% 73% Unfavorable 28 35 38 40 51 40 45 15 Hvn't hrd enough 12 4 4 6 3 6 5 11 REFUSED 2 - - - 2 - 1 -

17. Is your opinion of Laura Ingraham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 26% 59% 2% 29% 33% 21% 31% 33% Unfavorable 21 3 37 21 17 24 27 14 Hvn't hrd enough 52 38 61 50 49 55 42 53 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 15% 32% 27% 32% 35% 28% 32% 14% Unfavorable 15 24 26 18 18 23 21 21 Hvn't hrd enough 70 43 46 49 46 48 47 63 REFUSED - 1 1 - - - - 1

18. Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 26% 56% 4% 29% 30% 22% 34% 28% Unfavorable 36 12 64 31 32 39 45 27 Hvn't hrd enough 37 31 31 39 36 37 21 42 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 15% 28% 30% 31% 35% 28% 31% 14% Unfavorable 37 37 38 31 33 40 36 35 Hvn't hrd enough 45 35 31 36 31 30 31 51 REFUSED 3 - 1 1 1 2 2 -

19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 52% 20% 83% 47% 46% 58% 53% 42% Disapprove 32 67 7 32 38 26 36 37 DK/NA 16 13 10 21 16 16 11 21 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 54% 52% 56% 49% 44% 52% 48% 63% Disapprove 24 32 33 39 39 34 36 22 DK/NA 22 17 11 13 16 15 15 15

20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 38% 47% 30% 40% 42% 34% 40% 37% Disapprove 41 29 50 42 41 42 45 35 DK/NA 21 24 20 18 17 24 15 28 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 44% 34% 37% 36% 45% 32% 39% 37% Disapprove 37 46 46 39 38 42 40 45 DK/NA 19 20 17 25 17 25 21 18

21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 62% 32% 87% 63% 59% 65% 65% 55% Disapprove 27 55 6 27 31 24 28 29 DK/NA 11 13 6 10 11 11 7 16 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 56% 63% 68% 61% 56% 64% 60% 68% Disapprove 27 22 26 32 32 25 28 23 DK/NA 16 14 6 6 12 11 11 9

22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as United States Senator?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 58% 11% 96% 57% 52% 63% 55% 44% Disapprove 34 84 - 34 41 29 40 47 DK/NA 7 5 4 10 7 8 5 9 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 64% 58% 60% 53% 45% 55% 50% 77% Disapprove 24 34 36 42 47 40 43 16 DK/NA 11 8 4 5 8 6 7 7

23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?