Hurricane Florence continues to swirl in the Atlantic Ocean and strengthened into a major Category 4 storm on Monday. (AP)

By Len Melisurgo | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

Hurricane Florence keeps getting stronger, turning into a very powerful Category 4 storm on Monday and threatening to wreak havoc on the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. As Florence continues to grow in strength, confidence among forecasters is growing regarding the track this storm will take in the next several days.

During the past weekend, four different scenarios were all in play, ranging from the storm drifting harmlessly out to sea to Florence hugging the East Coast and heading towards New Jersey, New York City or even New England. Most forecasters are now honing in on one of the other scenarios: A direct hit on the Carolinas.

UPDATE (Sept. 11): Massive storm tracks toward Carolinas as Isaac, Helene churn

Here's a rundown of the potential storm tracks and how likely, or unlikely, they are.

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This map from the National Hurricane Center shows the latest forecast track of Hurricane Florence, as of 5 p.m. Monday, Sept. 10.

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Scenario 1: Move out to sea

The possibility that Hurricane Florence will drift north, make a sharp right turn and go harmlessly out to sea is "looking very unlikely at this time," said Sean Rowland, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks, a private forecasting company based in Warren County. Forecasters at the National Weather Service's regional office in New Jersey agree.

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Scenario 2: Close call for East Coast

Last weekend, some computer guidance models were projecting that Florence would move past Bermuda early this week, continue tracking west, then curve north up the East Coast, remaining offshore and making no landfall. Rowland and other forecasters say there’s a slight possibility this could happen, but it’s not the most likely scenario.

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Scenario 3: Landfall with inland track

As of late Monday, this is the most likely scenario predicted by the National Hurricane Center and many other forecasters: Florence is expected to make a direct hit on the Carolinas late Thursday or early Friday, then move inland. The big questions on the table are, how far inland, and where will the storm move after that?

Forecasters fear Florence could stall out after it moves inland, a scenario that could have catastrophic effects on areas closest to the hurricane’s path. Some forecasters say as much as 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall if the storm stalls, creating the potential for devastating flooding.

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An absolutely incredible animation the core of #HurricaneFlorence Florence as it rapidly intensified this morning. This is 30-second #GOESEast imagery. pic.twitter.com/S0VfhkJkOg — NWS Eastern Region (@NWSEastern) September 10, 2018

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Scenario 4: Direct hit near N.J.

Forecasters say the probability of a direct hit on or near New Jersey was very small over the weekend, and it remains very small now, as the hurricane continues its steady trek towards the Carolinas.

Alex Staarmann, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service, said Florence is being forced to stay south of New Jersey by a big ridge of high pressure that has been expanding and strengthening over the eastern United States during recent days.

That doesn’t mean New Jersey is completely out of the woods, Staarmann noted. “We may still get some heavy rain and some flooding this weekend.”

How much rain? It all depends on exactly where Florence makes landfall, where the hurricane stalls and where the storm or its remnants move after that, Staarmann said.

As for getting any strong winds, the National Hurricane Center says there’s a 5 to 10 percent chance of tropical storm-force winds hitting Central New Jersey on Thursday and a 10 to 20 percent chance of tropical storm-force winds hitting South Jersey. Tropical storm-force winds range from 39 to 73 mph.

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Note the potential for Tropical Storm Force winds in Delmarva and southern NJ late this week. #Florence bears watching for the Atlantic coast, and not just where it makes landfall. Impacts will be felt up the coast. #NJwx #PAwx #DEwx #MDwx https://t.co/gmcZJp7ajS — NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) September 10, 2018

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Hurricane #Florence is not just a threat to the coast. Very heavy, prolonged rainfall is expected over a large portion of the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. Here is the latest 7 day rainfall forecast from @NWSWPC. pic.twitter.com/HVMCOMDQIr — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 10, 2018

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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.