JUST one month ago, on May 8th, a poll came out in Wales which predicted that the Tories would win their best ever result in this general election, with 41% of respondents saying that they were going to vote Conservative. Tories talked excitedly of pushing into traditional Labour territory, even of winning the most seats.

How long ago it all seems. In the event the Tories did as badly in Wales as they did in England, if not more so. With only one more seat to count, the Tories have actually lost three, reducing their total to eight, while Labour has gained three, taking their tally to 28. The Welsh nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, retained their three seats. The Tory misery began in the Vale of Clwyd, a marginal that they were confident of snatching off Labour. In fact, they failed to capture it. Thereafter the night just got worse. Labour, by contrast, was jubilant; they had prepared merely to defend their seats, but ended up taking some too.

There will be an inquest now into how the Tories managed to blow their lead, all the more surprising as Wales is very much Brexit territory. A few things suggest themselves, however. Even during the campaign in Wales there were complaints that the Welsh Tories did not have the freedom to campaign as they would have wished, having to conform to plans laid down at Central Office in London. In Scotland, by contrast, the local Tories ran their own campaign and did much better, helped by the dynamic and charismatic leadership of Ruth Davidson. The Scottish Tories were therefore more able to focus on local issues.