Vladimir Putin made two things clear as he embarked on a sweeping reshuffle of Russia’s government on Wednesday: first, that Russia will probably bid farewell to him as president after 2024. And second, that when he leaves the presidency, he will definitely not be leaving power.

No one really expected Putin to retire in 2024, when term limits dictate he cannot run for re-election. But pride and an interest in self-preservation dictate that he keep his hands on the levers of power.

“He is the founder of this system – he wants to keep control,” said Alexey Makarkin of the Center for Political Technologies.

But remaking the presidency, which under Putin has enjoyed a singular and unchecked power, will take years.

Timeline Putin's hold over power in Russia Show Acting prime minister Boris Yeltsin sacks his cabinet and appoints Putin, a political neophyte who headed the main successor to the KGB, as his acting prime minister and heir apparent. Acting president Yeltsin stuns Russia and the world by using his traditional new year message to announce his resignation and hand his sweeping powers, including the nuclear suitcase, to Putin. President (first term) Putin wins a surprisingly narrow majority in his first presidential election, taking 53% of the vote and avoiding a second round run-off. President (second term) Putin consolidates his centralised control of power by cruising to a second term as president with 71% of the vote, having limited press access to his opponents and harassing their campaigns. Prime minister Putin is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term as president. The First deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev is elected in his stead. One of his earliest moves is to appoint Putin as prime minister, leaving little doubt that the two men plan, at the very least, to run Russia in tandem. President (third term) Amid widespread allegations of vote-rigging, Putin returns to the role of president, taking 63.6%. Medvedev becomes his prime minister. "Putin has named himself the emperor of Russia for the next 12 years," says protest leader Alexei Navalny. President (fourth term) Putin is re-elected until 2024 with 77% of the vote, amid high tensions between London and Moscow over the Salisbury nerve agent attack. Opposition activists highlight a number of cases of vote-rigging and statistical anomalies. Russia holds a yes/no referendum on various topics including a proposal to amend the constitution to allow Putin to seek another two terms in the Kremlin. The resolution passes, potentially allowing him to rule as president until 2036.

The blistering pace of developments on Wednesday – Putin announced plans to amend the constitution to weaken Russia’s next president, and then an hour later his prime minister and government announced plans to resign – showed that the groundwork for the transition is being laid years before Putin must leave the Kremlin under term limits.

It is likely to end with him as prime minister or as the head of a newly empowered State Council, observers said, or in another role insulated from the power of his potential successor.

That successor is not likely to be Mikhail Mishustin, the tax official whom Putin named as his choice for Russia’s new prime minister, and who is seen as an able caretaker of the government while Putin sets out his succession plans.

Profile Mikhail Mishustin – Putin's choice for PM Show Vladimir Putin’s selection for Russia’s next prime minister is a loyal technocrat seen as a capable placeholder while the Russian president plans for his political succession. Mikhail Mishustin, 53, is the head of Russia’s tax service, credited with bringing digital tools to revolutionise the agency and help it crack down on tax evasion. His nomination came on Wednesday as Putin embarked on a sweeping reshuffle of the country’s leadership. Mishustin met Putin in the Kremlin where the Russian president “suggested to him that he take the post of the head of government” which he accepted, the Kremlin said. He will face a vote of approval in the Russian parliament within a week, which is almost certain to pass. Mishustin, a graduate of the Stankin Moscow State Technological University, has headed the tax service since being appointed by Putin in 2010, and also worked for the agency in the 1990s. He has also worked as the president of an investment company and as the head of a laboratory for a Moscow-based computer company. A recent profile of Mishustin in the Financial Times called him the “taxman of the future” and credited him with developing a real-time system “directed more at shopkeepers than oligarchs.” Mishustin is not thought to be among the likely candidates to be Putin’s eventual replacement, who have largely included powerful officials known to be longtime allies of the president, including city heads, members of his presidential administration, and even former bodyguards. Photograph: Sergei Karpukhin/X00944

Meanwhile, a cast of loyal confidants, including old colleagues, aides, regional heads and former bodyguards, have all been tipped as potential heirs. Putin has left his options open with Mishustin’s selection, and sought to minimise infighting among the political elite by keeping his cards close to his chest.

Putin has good reason to plan ahead for this transition, likely the most meaningful and fraught of his career. The 2011-12 protests, still the largest of Putin’s time in power, were sparked by botched parliamentary elections. But they came after Putin had announced his plans to return to the presidency, sparking concern among opponents that the Putin decade could become the Putin generation (it did), or potentially a lifetime of rule under Putin.

That is also a possibility. Putin has already become the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Joseph Stalin, and by 2024, will be just six years shy of the Soviet leader’s three decades in power.

Opposition leaders such as Alexei Navalny commented that Putin was interested in being “leader for life”. Mikhail Kasyanov, a former prime minister and Putin critic, said he wanted to retain power “for ever”.

In Russia, the most pressing question is not whether Putin will stay in power after 2024, but simply how he plans to accomplish it.