Under a formula that takes into account who your club plays twice, the number of six-day breaks, consecutive six-day breaks, the relative difficulty of road trips – from heading to the new Optus Stadium in Perth to the quirky Shanghai assignment – the value of home-ground advantage against teams on the road, the Saints have ‘won’ the ‘toughest draw category’ under some fresh, 'seasonally adjusted' if you like, crunching of the data. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video Last October, when the fixture list was first released, it was already looking bleak for the Saints, ranked behind only West Coast, Adelaide and Richmond for the toughest draw. After the home-and-away period, however, St Kilda have edged out Sydney and Essendon for top billing. While the Saints have moved markedly, the most eye-catching swings happened for Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne – at opposite ends of the spectrum for the Lions and Demons.

In retrospect, Brisbane had a tougher run than first thought, given two of their five ‘double up’ opponents were top four bolters Collingwood and Hawthorn. (And, yes, it’s a perverse statistic that two of Brisbane’s five wins came against the brown and gold). Melbourne had the biggest ‘swing’, a pre-season score of 59 (determined from the projected ladder spots of the multiple opponents) dropping to just 39. That’s unsurprising when you’re reminded that the Demons enjoyed a second bite against bottom seven teams Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Gold Coast. And the team that completed Melbourne’s quota, Geelong, scraped into eighth spot, thanks in part to two narrow and thrilling victories over the red and blue. Under this formula, with its own special dose of herbs and spices, Melbourne have finished only just behind North Melbourne, for the easiest run of the lot, after initially being ranked mid-table. Interestingly, the Demons needed only two victories against fellow top eight teams – managed in the final two home-and-away rounds - to solidify their drought-breaking finals appearance. Onto the warriors of the AFL, the Sydney Swans, who were pipped by the Saints for ‘toughest run’ honours.

The Swans were hit with double-up meetings against four top eight teams, as well as one-time top eight aspirants North Melbourne. Pre-season, the Swans’ fixture was considered only middle-of-the-range. Sydney’s high ranking was also thanks in part to a league-high eight six-day breaks. None of those breaks were consecutive, but the Swans did it the hard way in continuing their remarkable pattern of making the finals almost every time since 2000. Furthermore, Essendon have picked up a new grading with return appearances against three top four teams - Richmond, Hawthorn and Collingwood. Ouch. The original formula, which this time 10 months ago left Gold Coast with the most favourable draw, took the approach to weight teams according to a probable ladder for 2018. Loading

Reigning premiers Richmond were expected to finish high on the table again but, based on bookie predictions, were considered only the fourth favourite for the flag and thus only the fourth most difficult opponent. On the same measurement, Adelaide were deemed premiership favourites and ranked the toughest opponent of all. Indeed, the Crows endured the biggest move of all clubs, eventually finishing an ignominious 12th. But Sydney, GWS, Richmond, Geelong and Melbourne were all given top eight billing by the bookies, so those projections weren’t far off. One club that did buck expectations was North Melbourne who, after finishing 15th in 2017, were considered favourites for the spoon and an opponent to relish. Full credit to the Kangas. The AFL fixture list is a tough beast and for some years, league data-crunchers have been grouping clubs in brackets of six, with limitations on matches against teams in and out of their bracket, in an attempt to create a fairer fixture list.

It's worth remembering that in late 2016 Richmond, having just finished 13th, were thus in the bottom third on the fixture ladder. Consequently, they ended up with "double-up" matches against Carlton, Brisbane and Fremantle – three clubs that ended up in the bottom six last year and had three of the bottom four percentage returns. Now Melbourne, despite only narrowly missing the finals last year on percentage, perhaps – only just perhaps - might reap the rewards from a draw that has worked in their favour. The occasional blemish aside - read a narrow loss to St Kilda in round 15 – they’ve been able to bank most of the points on offer against the lowly Bulldogs, Gold Coast, St Kilda and Adelaide. It left them in fifth position and a finals series that could be their oyster. DOING IT TOUGH: FROM FIRST TO LAST ST KILDA

Difficulty score: 101

Pre-season score: 83

Who they played twice: Richmond, GWS, Melb, Hawthorn, North Melbourne

SYDNEY SWANS

Difficulty score: 98

Pre-season score: 79

Who they played twice: Geelong, GWS, West Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne ESSENDON Difficulty score: 96

Pre-season score: 84

Who they played twice: Richmond, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Fremantle

GEELONG Difficulty score: 87

Pre-season score: 78

Who they played twice: Richmond, Sydney, Melbourne, Hawthorn, Gold Coast



ADELAIDE Difficulty score: 86

Pre-season score: 91

Who they played twice: Richmond, GWS, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Carlton

BRISBANE LIONS Difficulty score: 86

Pre-season score: 68

Who they played twice: GWS, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Nth Melb, Gold Coast

FREMANTLE Difficulty score: 82

Pre-season score: 77

Who they played twice: West Coast, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Collingwood, Carlton

WEST COAST Difficulty score: 78

Pre-season score: 93

Who they played twice: GWS, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle WESTERN BULLDOGS

Difficulty score: 76

Pre-season score: 61

Who they played twice: West Coast, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melb, Carlton PORT ADELAIDE Difficulty score: 75

Pre-season score: 83

Who they played twice: Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle

RICHMOND

Difficulty score: 73

Pre-season score: 88

Who they played twice: Adelaide, Geelong, Essendon, St Kilda, Collingwood GWS GIANTS Difficulty score: 73

Pre-season score: 80

Who they played twice: Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast, St Kilda, Brisbane CARLTON Difficulty score: 70

Pre-season score: 78

Who they played twice: Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast



COLLINGWOOD Difficulty score: 68

Pre-season score: 71

Who they played twice: Richmond, Essendon, Fremantle, Carlton, Brisbane Lions

GOLD COAST Difficulty score: 66

Pre-season score: 59

Who they played twice: Geelong, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane Lions

HAWTHORN Difficulty score: 64

Pre-season score: 77

Who they played twice: Geelong, Sydney, Essendon, St Kilda, Brisbane Lions

MELBOURNE Difficulty score: 58

Pre-season score: 78

Who they played twice: Adelaide, Geelong, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast