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Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton in Ohio by 5 percentage points, according to a new poll released Wednesday, Sept. 13.

(Left: Andrew Harnik, AP Photo; Right: Evan Vucci, AP Photo)

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The presidential race is heating up in Ohio, while the U.S. Senate race here may be winding down, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

The poll, conducted over the weekend by Selzer & Co. and sponsored by Bloomberg Politics, shows Republican Donald Trump leading in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up with Democrat Hillary Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent among self-identified likely Ohio voters. That margin held when interviewers asked about third-party candidates -- in this scenario, Trump led Clinton 44 percent to 39 percent, with independent Gary Johnson pulling 10 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein with 3 percent.

Meanwhile, the poll also found Republican U.S. Sen. Rob Portman leading Democratic challenger Ted Strickland, the former governor, 53 percent to 36 percent.

"Our party breakdown differs from other polls, but resembles what happened in Ohio in 2004," J. Ann Selzer, whose Iowa-based firm oversaw the survey, said in a statement. "It is very difficult to say today who will and who will not show up to vote on Election Day. Our poll suggests more Republicans than Democrats would do that in an Ohio election held today, as they did in 2004 when George W. Bush carried the state by a narrow margin. In 2012, more Democrats showed up."

The findings are notable in two ways. First, Trump's 5-point lead in Ohio is his largest of the year, and caps a series of recent polls that have trended away from Clinton, who consistently has held a narrow lead over Trump in polls performed here. Trump is likely at least in part the beneficiary of a traditional tightening of the race that occurs after Labor Day, when voters generally begin to pay closer attention to the election.

And second, the poll suggests that barring the unexpected, Portman is on his way to a safe re-election. It's the second consecutive Ohio poll that found Portman holding a double-digit lead over Strickland. For comparison, polls at this stage of the race in 2012 showed Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, leading his Republican challenger, State Treasurer Josh Mandel, by an average of 6 percentage points. Brown eventually won by 5 points.

The 17-point margin is particularly striking given that political observers initially had viewed the Ohio U.S. Senate race as one of the most competitive in the country. But as Strickland has failed to rise in the polls, Senate Democrats have begun retreating from the race, pulling millions in planned advertisements in Ohio to redirect the money toward more competitive races.

The new poll also found that 57 percent of Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of Portman, compared to 27 percent who hold an unfavorable view. This +30 net favorability rating is the highest of any American politician the pollster asked about, compared to Gov. John Kasich (+24), Strickland (-9), Trump (-7), Clinton (-17), Democratic President Barack Obama (-5) and Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin (-64.)

It also found that Ohio voters are more troubled with issues that have dogged Clinton than they are with issues involving Trump. A majority said they were bothered "a lot" by Clinton's handling of her private email server (57 percent), her handling as U.S. Secretary of State of the 2012 attack of the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya (59 percent) and the Clinton Foundation's acceptance of money from foreign governments during Clinton's tenure as secretary of state (53 percent.)

For comparison, 57 percent of voters said it bothered them "a lot" that Trump criticized a reporter in a way that was seen as mocking the reporter's physical disability, but only 39 percent gave the same answer when asked about Trump's decision to not release his tax returns. Only 40 percent said they were bothered "a lot" by the Trump Foundation's illegal contribution in 2013 to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi's political group as Bondi decided not to investigate fraud claims against Trump University.

The poll, shared exclusively with cleveland.com, was conducted from Sept. 9, the day after a televised "commander in chief" candidate forum between Clinton and Trump, to Sept. 12, the day after Clinton collapsed during a public appearance in New York City. The campaign later said she was overheated and suffering from pneumonia.

Interviewers contacted 1,138 randomly selected Ohio adults with landlines and cell phones. They produced 802 residents who said they will definitely vote in the Nov. 8 election. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.