To say things have not gone well for Trevor Bauer in Cincinnati would be an understatement. On Tuesday, he is going up against a team in the Seattle Mariners that ranks 27th in earned runs allowed per game.

Since being traded to the Reds, Bauer has made seven starts and has given up 2.1 home runs per nine innings with a 1-4 record to go with an 8.23 ERA. Overs have been 5-2 in his starts in Cincinnati with four of his past five going Over as he has made it past five innings in just one of those starts.

Both teams also have had leaky bullpen pitching with both being in the bottom 10 in bullpen ERA since the All-Star break. With Mariners starter and former Yankees prospect Justus Sheffield not making it past five innings in any of his appearances this season, it could be an issue for the Mariners.

Sheffield has been a mixed bag this year, struggling at the Triple-A level this season with a 6.87 ERA, though ERAs in the Pacific Coast League are, in general, sky high because of the juiced ball. He then posts a 2.19 ERA at Double-A Arkansas and in three big-league starts since being recalled from the minors has given up five, three, and zero runs.

This is a battle of opposites as 59% of Mariners games have gone Over while 59.7% of Reds games have gone Under. With Bauer’s recent form and Sheffield being inconsistent at best, plan on seeing a bunch of runs, presenting a good chance to make some money by taking the total Over.

The Play: Reds vs. Mariners, Over 9