BABIP Files: Over and Under Performing Catchers of 2014

As advanced stats have become more widely used in Fantasy Baseball, Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) has drawn a lot of praise and criticism.

Most of the criticism stems from people using it incorrectly. While BABIP attempts to measure luck, you can’t just compare the BABIP of two players to see who was luckier. While all pitchers tend to group around a BABIP Allowed of .300 or so, different types of hitters can have extremely different results. A speedy slap hitter is going to generally have a higher BABIP than a plodding power hitter.

In order to properly gauge whether a hitter was the beneficiary of a fortunate BABIP you have to compare it to their career norms. Even then you need to look deeper into batted ball data to see if there are any obvious reasons for an extreme BABIP differential. A hitter whose line drive percentage spikes is going to have have a higher BABIP and the gain is likely not all luck.

With those caveats in place here are the BABIP differentials for all catchers with over 200 at-bats in 2014. These numbers were arrived at by taking each hitters 2014 BABIP and subtracting their combined BABIP from the years 2009-2013. In general the larger the number, the luckier a hitter was. I’ve highlighted catchers with BABIP differentials of + or – .030 and higher as extreme numbers we can act upon. Below the table are some notes on specific catchers that this data seems particularly pertinent to.

2014 BABIP Differential for Catchers

Catchers due for a BABIP fall

Tyler Flowers – Flowers did have a career best 23.7 LD% and hit more grounders and fewer fly balls in 2014, so there is some support for his elevated BABIP. With that said, any regression at all and he becomes a huge batting average risk. I roster him only as a reserve and bail at the first signs of trouble.

Russell Martin – The three season before Martin’s .290 average in 2014 were .237, .211, and .226. His LD% and other batted ball numbers are right in line with those three prior years. Don’t expect an encore performance from Martin in 2015. He is not even a consideration for me this coming season.

Devin Mesoraco – I wrote a lot more about my expectations for Mesoraco in this article, but needless to say he’s an extreme candidate for regression in 2015 and his price tag won’t reflect it. Mesoraco clearly made some gains in 2014, but much of it was due to a .341 BABIP and 23.9 HR/FB% in the first half of the season. Regression hit him hard in the second half and you’ll see more of it in 2015.

Kurt Suzuki – The Twins seemed ready to hand the reins over to Josmil Pinto last spring, but he struggled and Suzuki decided he could hit. After a .309 first half, Suzuki remembered that he’d hit below .240 for the three previous seasons. Suzuki is not a power hitter by any definition and a regression in AVG means he has negative value. Roster him if you must, but have Pinto in mind. Pinto has the same AVG concerns, but is a potential sleeper because of his power.

Evan Gattis – Gattis is definitely a batting average risk, but a move to the outfield likely means more at-bats and Gattis has the power to balance out some of his contact issues. He’s not the perfect hitter, but 25-plus HR potential with catcher eligibility is pretty solid.

Derek Norris – Norris was supposed to be about power, but he hit a solid .270 in 2014. That .270 came despite a career worst LD%. The move to Petco won’t change anything, but a return to BABIP reality will, and Norris won’t have the HRs that Gattis does to compensate.

BABIP Bounce-Backs

Yasmani Grandal – Grandal strikes out too much to be an asset in batting average, but he turned on the power in the last three months of 2014. Grandal consistently hit around .300 in the minors and put up a .297 mark in 226 2012 plate appearances in San Diego. If he can approach .260 in Los Angeles, he becomes a solid option for fantasy owners.

Salvador Perez – After three years 0f .290-plus batting averages, 2014’s .260 mark was a disappointment for fantasy owners. While some of the dip in average can be attributed to his AL-leading 150 games, Perez is still due for a nice rebound in 2015. Couple a .290 average with more at-bats than most every other catcher and Perez could easily move into the Top 5 at the catcher position.

Brian McCann – While I’m expecting McCann to rebound a bit, it’s not so cut and dried. His BABIP has been all over the place during his career and there were concerns that he changed his approach with the short right field fences in Yankee Stadium. He won’t be the 30 HR guy people were expecting in 2014, but if he slips a bit in drafts there is profit to be had in McCann.

Miguel Montero – After five consecutive years of BABIPs over .300, Montero has slipped over the last two. While there is nothing in his peripherals that indicates an obvious decline, his age has me worried. I’m not necessarily avoiding him in 2015, but I’m less confident of a rebound. Roster him if you like, just don’t pass on useful players at another position for a 31-year-old catcher with a lot of miles on his knees.