I like the yellow line’s trend more than the red one.

Reuters national tracking poll of Democrats and Independents has Bernie leading Hillary by 5 points today. This is big poll, with a five day tracking average. Most respondents complete the survey online, but it is not an “online poll”.

Also, some good news from past contests. The Green Papers is showing that Bernie picked up 1 more delegate than initially reported in FL (73), TX (75) and GA (29) (compared to 538). AP’s tracker is not updated with yesterday’s results but agrees on TX and GA, they seem to have completely incorrect data for FL.

Here are the delegate leads going into last night and today, compared with delegates available:

Lead Available Lead as percent March 21 322 2033 15.84% March 23 294 1889 15.56%

So with an assist from the re-allocation of delegates in prior races, Bernie has improved the ground he needs to make up. Before March 22, he had to pick up 15.84% extra delegates, now he needs to pick up a smaller percentage of the delegates remaining.

Last night and with Dems Abroad, Bernie picked up 85 delegates for a net gain of 26. That was off my target, but ahead of the 538 estimates for a tied race. So we caught up a bit, but need to do more.

STATE DEL TYPE 538 TARGET SUBIR TARGET ACTUAL DEL ACTUAL VOTES VOTES NEEDED TURNOUT ‘O8 AZ 75 Closed Primary 41 46 31 163,398 279,456 455,635 ID 23 Open Caucus 14 16 18 18,638 14,764 21,224 UT 33 Open Caucus 19 21 27 61,331 83,620 131,403 Abroad 13 Open Caucus 6.5 7 9 23,779 12,441 23,105 Total 144 80.5 90 85 267,146 390,281 631,367

All said and done, yesterday was a good day for Bernie. But it wasn’t great. Please get back to phone-banking so we can shrink that delegate deficit further!