Exclusive: Clinton would dominate 2016 Iowa caucuses, PPP shows

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would start out as a dominant favorite in the 2016 Iowa caucuses if she chooses to run for president, a new survey from Public Policy Polling finds.

The PPP poll, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows Clinton taking 58 percent of the Iowa vote in a hypothetical presidential run. Vice President Joe Biden trails far behind at 17 percent, followed by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 6 percent and Massachusetts Sen.-elect Elizabeth Warren at 3 percent.

None of the other Democrats tested – Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner – cracked 1 percent in the poll.

If Clinton doesn’t run, Biden would jump into the lead with a less-commanding 40 percent of the vote, with Cuomo rising to 14 percent and Warren up to 9 percent. In the event that neither Clinton nor Biden runs, Cuomo draws 30 percent to Warren’s 13 percent, with 46 percent of voters unsure who they’d support.

As one would expect, Clinton and Biden are by far the best-known and best-liked of the Democrats’ potential 2016 field. Both are universally known and have approximately equal favorability ratings: Clinton gets a positive response from 86 percent of Democrats and a negative response from 11 percent. For Biden, those numbers are 85 percent positive, 15 percent negative.

Of the other candidates listed, only Andrew Cuomo was known to a majority of Iowa respondents. Thirty-eight percent had a favorable impression of him, while 16 percent had an unfavorable impression.

O’Malley, Patrick, Schweitzer, Warner and Warren all drew “not sure” answers from a majority of respondents, meaning they have plenty of room to grow as 2016 approaches.

From the list of pols PPP tested, Biden and O’Malley are viewed as most likely to run for the White House in four years. Clinton has said she has no intention of running for president, though many in the party believe she might change her mind. Warren has ruled out a White House bid, but hope springs eternal among her liberal fan base.

All the usual caveats apply here: a poll can’t predict events four years down the line and there are Democrats viewed as potential candidates who weren’t included, such as Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.

But the big picture here speaks for itself: Clinton looms over the Democratic presidential field and will likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

The full poll, which you can see here, tested 391 Iowa Democrats on Nov. 3 and 4 – before the results of the 2012 presidential race were known.