It would take a very angry electorate and a lucky confluence of preferences to win, but strange things happen in byelections

“I want to talk policy,” says Labor’s candidate for Wentworth, Tim Murray, as we sit down for coffee after he finishes handing out flyers to commuters at Bondi Junction.

No wonder. Talking about his prospects in the October 20 byelection is either going to be an exercise in extreme optimism or a depressing conversation.

Wentworth, in Sydney’s east, has voted Liberal for the last 60 years. In 2016, Labor won just one booth: Kings Cross.

It would take a very angry electorate and a lucky confluence of preferences to see Murray win. It also doesn’t help that the high-profile independent – local GP and marriage equality campaigner, Kerryn Phelps – is preferencing the Liberals ahead of Labor.

But strange things happen in byelections. With 16 candidates, two well known independents, and an electorate still smarting from the unceremonious dismissal of former member Malcolm Turnbull by his own party, it’s just conceivable that Labor could sneak in or at least give the Liberals a fright.

And as Murray gleefully points out, the Liberals are having to spend an estimated $1m on a byelection just months before a general election.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A Labor volunteer hands out flyers. Murray says the Liberal party has had to spend about $1m fighting the byelection. Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

Murray is up against the Liberals’ Dave Sharma, a former diplomat who was Ambassador to Israel. But Sharma, regarded by the party as one of its most promising recruits, is battling the Liberals’ recent history and the fact that he’s from outside the electorate.

Murray, on the other hand, is the chairman of the Tamarama surf club, grew up in the electorate and still lives there, punctuated with a long stint working in China.

He now runs his own investment advisory firm, which he hopes will make him more appealing to the entrepreneurs and small business people of Wentworth. It also seems to have given him confidence in selling Labor’s economic policies which might be expected to grate with the well-heeled voters of Wentworth.

Take Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing of property. Murray says that housing affordability is “a huge issue” in Wentworth, one of the most expensive areas of Sydney.

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While there are undoubtedly a higher proportion of people who avail themselves of negative gearing among Wentworth’s wealthy, he points out there are also a large number of renters: 44.2% according to the 2016 Census.

“When I talk about how our policy will help housing affordability to people under 35, they smile. It’s a big thing for them,” he says.

“One guy joked to me: he was moving out of home to rent forever. That might be a meme,” he says.

But Murray says even well-off, older voters are concerned about how their kids will afford homes.

“Even people who have utilised negative gearing understand that they had their turn,” he says, before going into detail about how the policy only applies to established real estate and has grandfathering provisions.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Tim Murray handing out flyers. Local issues, such as the need for a new high school, are also playing on voters’ minds. Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

As for ending cash backs from excess dividend imputation, Murray recounts meeting an angry voter yelled that Labor had “ruined his life”. As they got into conversation, the older man said he used the tax refunds to pay for his grandson’s school fees. (Labor plans to stop taxpayers claiming money back from the tax office when their franking credits from shares exceed their tax owed. Pensioners will be exempt.)

Murray said he sent the voter a long email, explaining why putting all his wealth into high-yielding, fully franked stocks was a risky investment strategy.

“‘We’re going to win the next election,’ I said, ‘so he should look at alternatives’.”

But the biggest issue among Wentworth voters, says Murray, is climate change – and the moderate, well educated voters of Wentworth want action.

Energy policy was the last thing in Malcolm’s hands when the knife went in Tim Murray

According to a Reachtel poll for the Australia Institute, taken in late August, a majority of Wentworth voters (62.5%) think Australia should move to 100% renewable energy within the next five to 10 years.

Another 68.6% of voters polled thought the prime minister, Scott Morrison, would do less to tackle climate change than Malcolm Turnbull, and more than half (50.9%) said his lump of coal stunt put them off voting Liberal in the next election.

“Energy policy was the last thing in Malcolm’s hands when the knife went in,” says Murray. “If a person of Malcolm Turnbull’s stature and ability couldn’t get a policy to tackle climate change through his party, how will a new MP like Sharma have any influence on the Liberal party?” he says. “ I feel a bit sorry for him.”

Since dumping the national energy guarantee just before Turnbull lost the leadership, the Coalition has focused on lowering energy prices. But the detail of how it intends to tackle climate change is now uncertain. Murray says that Labor, on the other hand, has a plan and will legislate it when it gets into government.

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The revelations about pressure on the ABC and how the Coalition had bypassed the recruitment panel to appoint directors, some of whom have political affiliations, has also helped his campaign, he says.

He’s also keen to talk about the local issues. Education and the need for more schools in the east is a major issue, and Murray is familiar with all the possible sites for a new high school.

The state government’s plans for a development at South Head is also a festering local issue, that is being led by several high-profile citizens including film-maker George Miller.

Murray says that he will be pushing federal and state colleagues to both move on a new high school and look at using the buildings on South Head for a centre that recognises Wentworth’s Indigenous heritage.

As for Labor’s refugee policy (Labor supports offshore detention), Murray acknowledges he gets “challenged a lot” as he stands at the train station.

His answer is that Labor will move more quickly to strike deals with countries like New Zealand and introduce regional processing, which will solve the issue of children in detention “within weeks”.