Though the Pirates have walked the plank record-wise since the All-Star break, going 6-25, they have excelled at scoring runs at home, with 67.9 percent of their home games going Over the total.

The Pirates also get the luxury of playing a Cubs team that was 23-37 on the road entering Thursday. Kyle Hendricks will pitch, and he has some pretty dramatic splits. He has an ERA below 2.00 at home, but is 4-7 with a 5.16 ERA on the road, giving up 1.62 home runs per nine innings.

He will be opposed by Joe Musgrove, who has been shaky recently, giving up three or more runs in five out of his past seven starts and 11 runs in his last 8²/₃ innings. Interestingly, his ERA is worse at home than it is on the road and he is giving up more than 1.9 home runs per nine innings at home compared to less than 0.8 home runs on the road.

In addition, the Cubs rank sixth in the majors in road homers and the Pirates rank 22nd in bullpen ERA.

The Play: Cubs-Pirates, Over 9 runs.