Transcript for FiveThirtyEight House forecast update for Oct 23, 2018

Yeah. Is a classic version of 538 house forecast currently gives Democrats he's sixth in seven or about an 86% chance of winning a majority. And it gives Republicans won in savage. Our forecast also currently gives Democrats an. Average gain forty seats one of the seats the Democrats are hoping to flip in this election is Maine's second district. Which makes up the northern part of the state and is an Obama trump district. Right now we give democratic challenger Jared gold and a five in eight chance of unseating Republican incumbent Bruce Pollack. Maine's second district leans Republican and when our forecast launched in August we gave Pollock and a 60% chance of keeping his seat. But the race has been up and down ever cents. Golden's odds were recently buoyed by the latest fund raising numbers showed him raising nearly 3.5. Million dollars in individual contributions. That compares to Pollock wins one point six. And now the most recent poll from Siena college and the New York Times. Puts the candidates dead even with each candidate polling at 41%. Even though we consider this race to be lean democratic. It's worth noting that all three of the ratings experts considered a toss. Visit 538 dot com slash house forecast to explore the model for years now.

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