The Great 2016 Republican Sorting has begun.

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry thudded first, his campaign acknowledging this week that it had stopped paying staff amid funding shortfalls. He’s not alone in experiencing turmoil. Sen. Rand Paul, whose campaign is struggling with deep fundraising and organizational problems, has fixated on throwing grenades at GOP front-runner Donald Trump, hardly the strategy of a thriving campaign. Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum saw several top staffers depart for a supportive super PAC — a move that comes amid slow fundraising.


Yet unlike previous cycles, the tiering of the 2016 Republican presidential field appears unlikely to result in the quick exit of the GOP laggards. That’s because each is the beneficiary of super PACs that in many cases have raised orders of magnitude more than the campaigns themselves. The PACs, in effect, become a bridge to viability, sustaining struggling candidates who may genuinely believe they can surge or who simply want to stick around long enough to amass delegates and wield clout with the eventual nominee.

“I don’t think there’s any incentive to drop out as long as you can put gas in the truck and there’s PAC money out there,” said Sam Clovis, an Iowa adviser to the Perry campaign, who said Perry’s as upbeat about his chances as ever. “There will be some adjustments — but again, it’s just a matter of resetting the stride.”

Republican activists say Perry’s staff problems, in an earlier time, might’ve been the prelude to an early withdrawal from the race. Instead, he can put his campaign on autopilot while his affiliated super PACs — helmed by Mississippi operative Austin Barbour — deploy a $17 million haul, enabling Perry to regroup and hope for a revival later.

“We knew we needed to do more than just paid media,” Barbour said, adding,“When we saw the numbers, we knew they had to go to a lean staff.”

Barbour declined to divulge how many field staffers and other operatives the super PACs would deploy but said they “have in place a top couple people” in Iowa already and plan to run a statewide effort. It’s an unusual operational setup, since super PACs are legally barred from coordinating with presidential campaigns, but other 2016 efforts, including Carly Fiorina’s, have placed key staffers on the super PAC side. Santorum’s campaign manager also recently departed with plans to build a super PAC-supported ground operation.

“The super PAC situation is going to keep people in this race longer,” said Karen Fesler, an Iowa activist who recently defected from the Santorum camp to back Perry.

Perry’s not the only candidate subsisting on support from his super PAC. Paul’s campaign has been the beneficiary of a super PAC-funded ground game in Iowa.

Concerned American Voters, one of those PACs, has been working on voter ID and grass-roots organizing in Iowa over the past few months. President Jeff Frazee told POLITICO that as of June the super PAC had 40 full-time, paid staffers in Iowa and made over 500,000 voter contacts. The super PAC plans to start appointing precinct captains and mobilizing organizers in the next few weeks.

“Ron Paul had a very broad disorganized movement in 2008 and 2012 and what we’re trying to do is add some organization to an independent effort to get Paul elected,” Frazee said. “We have other programmatic activities that will be coming in the weeks. The pretext is that we’ve been kind of under the radar over the last few months doing our voter ID work and trying to figure out where our supporters are.”

Frazee added that the PAC eventually plans to organize beyond Iowa. “In broad strokes, we’ll look to expand beyond Iowa,” Frazee said. “We’ll be using the same model to win in other key states.” Frazee added that “Nevada is high on our list.”

But even Paul’s super PAC world is not without trouble. Jesse Benton and John Tate, the two Republican operatives at the helm of America’s Liberty PAC, are taking a leave of absence after being indicted on federal charges of being involved in a scheme to bribe an Iowa state senator during the 2012 presidential cycle.

As for Santorum, the 2012 Republican runner-up who has largely scraped along at the bottom of GOP polls this year has adopted a different posture than other longshots. The organization is preparing to announce a string of hires this month, including five paid staffers in Iowa and additional staff in New Hampshire. His super PAC is helping carry the load, but Santorum aides emphasized that he’s not dependent on it.

“Sen. Santorum has an expanding campaign operation,” said spokesman Matt Beynon. “He’ll be showing exponential growth in his Iowa and New Hampshire campaign teams in the weeks to come. Fundraising has seen an uptick. Volunteers have seen a tremendous uptick. We’re seeing a significant uptick all across the board. He’s sort of, once again becoming the little engine that could.”

Among those coming on board is Nick Pappas, who was Santorum’s deputy national political director when he won 11 states in the 2012 primary. Pappas will advise Santorum on a New Hampshire strategy, a move that the campaign emphasized comes despite conventional wisdom that Santorum will have trouble competing in the moderate state. He’s also planning an aggressive fundraising schedule in September.

Santorum’s “Working Again” super PAC emphasized that it’s not changing course.

“The race for president is a marathon, and at the end of it all, we are confident it will be Sen. Santorum crossing the finish line,” said spokeswoman Virginia Davis.

Rick Perry speaks at the RedState Gathering, Friday, Aug. 7, 2015, in Atlanta. | Getty

Saul Anuzis, a former RNC member from Michigan who has aligned with the campaign of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, said struggling candidates like Perry may be able to survive on their super PAC’s life support, but they’ll have a hard time returning to viability.

“Perception is reality in politics, so if a campaign, if it is perceived that they are struggling … then donors are going to stop giving. Volunteers are going to stop volunteering,” he said. “Even though people have more time to survive, they don’t necessarily have more time to thrive.”

An adviser to another Perry rival added, “Rick Perry is a good guy and governor, but now there’s a group of his loyal Texas-based donors who will start looking for another horse to invest in,” the senior adviser said.

The benefit of hanging on to a failed candidacy, Anuzis said, is that even bit players can amass enough delegates help winning candidates clinch the nomination. Those delegates can become trading chips in conversations about Cabinet posts or the vice presidential sweepstakes.

But Team Perry, for now doesn’t seem focused on a consolation prize. Barbour described an enthusiastic Perry who’s convinced he can finish in the top third of the field in Iowa on the strength of his retail skills.

“There’s no way he’d walk away from that,” Barbour said. “We’ve got all of this money, the super PAC can go do all of these operational things a typical campaign would do. His staff, his organization, can be lean and mean. Why would you walk away from that?”