Job loss damages the lives of ordinary Americans more than any other aspect of the ongoing recession. Today we received another ho-hum report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The numbers were dull only in the sense that nothing much has changed, which is just what we would expect. We have to bear in mind that behind the numbers, there are real people in distress whose lives did not change as another month came & went.

The numbers say that 71,000 jobs were gained in the private sector and 202,000 government jobs were lost. Of the latter, 143,000 were laid off census workers. If there is any real news here, it's that 10,000 State jobs were lost in addition to 38,000 local government jobs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock is very skeptical about the large discrepancy between private-sector jobs added by the BLS versus the number added by the private payroll company ADP.

Private Nonfarm Jobs – BLS vs. ADP Month BLS ADP June +83,000 +19,000 May +33,000 +63,000 April +241,000 +65,000 March +158,000 +32,000 February +62,000 +3,000 January +16,000 -82,000 Total +593,000 +100,000 Average +98,833 +16,667

Mish attributes the discrepancy to the use of the Birth/Death model (of businesses, not people) by the BLS. That sounds like the right explanation to me. ADP added 42,000 jobs in July, as opposed to the 71,000 added by the BLS. Although this model may do a reasonable job of guessing how many businesses are born or die during "normal" economic times—whatever that means during the Bubble Era of the last 15 years—it is quite clear that this model has skewed the jobs data during the ongoing recession. There is no excuse for retaining this positive bias in BLS reports.

But let's step back and look at the Big Picture. If everything were to go right—no more financial blow-ups, no oil price shocks, etc.—the United States might reach "full" employment again (a jobless of rate of ~5%) in about 2017. However, at the current rate of job additions, even as distorted by the Birth/Death model, we will never reach full employment because population growth alone requires us to add about 125,000 jobs per month just to stay even.

You may want to read that last paragraph again to make sure you have understood the seriousness of our predicament.

I believe the "official" unemployment rate will stay in the high single digits for many years to come. (It was unchanged today at 9.5%.) I believe the underemployment rate will remain in the high double digits for many years to come. This is the continuing jobs crisis. Over the next decade we will add considerably to an already substantial underclass in the United States. This is inevitable and tragic.

I've included some related posts that substantiate my prognosis.

Related Posts

When Will Full Employment Return Again?

The American Jobs Machine Is Broken

A Lost Generation

Designed In Silicon Valley, Made In China

When In Doubt, Blame China

Here is LaToya Egwuekwe's The Geography of a Recession, updated yesterday (August 5, 2010).