It’s the eve of episode 4 and here are my power rankings, with the upcoming tribe swap in mind! It’s more or less a “chance of winning the game” ranking, but I’m not paying any attention to the edit.

Would just like to preface this ranking to iterate my disgust with the quitter. Terrible stuff and disappointed that I had hopes for them.

Josie (=) Werner (=) Palesa (=) Tevin ( △1 ) Chané ( △1 ) Toni ( △1 ) Vusi ( △1 ) Murishca ( △3 ) Tom ( △3 ) Annalize ( △4) PK ( ▽1 ) Jeanne ( ▽3 ) Ace ( △2 ) Katinka ( ▽1 ) Marthunis ( △1 )

The top 3 remain the same, we haven’t seen Josie (=) much, but an UTR approach pre-merge is a solid plan and I think she’ll make new allies in the swap. Werner (=) would have taken top spot were it not for his public idol find, and even though he did play the situation as best he could, it still does come with some unwanted attention. The Marthunis tribal issue could come back to bite him. Palesa probably would’ve benefited more from a public idol, and had she not lost it I think she would’ve also overtaken Josie.

Toni (△1) is also in a good spot so far, she seems firmly in the majority at Mindanao but perceivably hasn’t alienated Jeanne and Katinka at all so a tribe swap shouldn’t hurt her game.

I thought Murishca (△3) had a solid episode, also in the majority and I feel like her power in the game will grow the closer she gets to the merge. She has definitely positively surprised me thus far.

Tom (△3) and Annalize (△4) make a comeback after Tom snagged an idol, but they benefit from the falls of PK (▽1) and Jeanne (▽3). I wasn’t expecting much from PK preseason (16th in the ranking) and his gameplay this episode – going around asking the women about a girls alliance – proved my presumption that he doesn’t have what it takes to play a winning game, even though he’ll probably go far.

Jeanne (▽3) lost her ally, and doesn’t seem to be very liked by her tribe. She likely would have gone this episode had it not been for quitter falling on the grenade, and so I think her social game is going to obstruct a path to victory.

Other bits and pieces: Katinka (▽1) is sadly offering nothing and has been a non-entity, and I didn’t think that Chané (△1) made the wrong move in giving it to Tom; not doing so puts their alliance in shaky territory and handing it over solidifies it. He’s also someone who might play an idol for her down the track.