Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has tied her fate to the economy. Her campaign for the presidency will rise or fall, then, with public perception of whether or not things are getting better or worse.

Warren threw her hat into the ring with a tweet, an email, and a four-minute video clip to her supporters on New Year’s Eve. She has formed a White House exploratory committee and, as expected, announced she will run for president in 2020, making her the first major Democrat to declare.

Warren, progressive crusader that she is, began with a broadside against Wall Street and the current market economy. The populist premise is simple: the economy isn’t working for everyone.

“In our country, if you work hard and play by the rules, you ought to be able to take care of yourself and the people you love,” Warren says as home videos of her and her grandchildren flash on screen. “That’s a fundamental promise of America, a promise that should be true for everyone.”



Every person in America should be able to work hard, play by the same set of rules, & take care of themselves & the people they love. That’s what I’m fighting for, & that’s why I’m launching an exploratory committee for president. I need you with me: https://t.co/BNl2I1m8OX pic.twitter.com/uXXtp94EvY — Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) December 31, 2018



And of course, Warren says that isn’t happening.

“America’s middle class is under attack,” Warren declares, and while some families prosper “others work just as hard [and] slip through the cracks into disaster.” It is standard fare from the former Harvard Law professor and, if Republicans aren’t careful, it could become an increasingly persuasive message.

A strong economy has buoyed President Trump so far. Back to work, voters are willing to look past his conflicts of interest and his less-than-presidential semantics. This changes when the economy tanks. Economists warn that a recession looms on the horizon (what else do recessions ever do besides loom?) and stocks have tumbled by 10 percent in 2018. If things get a lot worse, Warren’s chances get better.

Right now things aren’t as bleak as Warren would like (at least for political purposes). But there are troubling signs all the same.

Earlier this year, the Census Bureau reported that median household income rose above $61,372, the highest on record and roughly equivalent to what it was before the last recession. At the same time though, the Department of Labor reported that while wages have grown by 2.7 percent from July 2017 to July 2018, the cost of living has also increased by 2.9 percent.

When the economy sputters, this kitchen table pitch will become increasingly appealing. Republicans better prepare a response and pray a recession holds off.