Erin Kelly

USAToday

WASHINGTON — In an unlikely tale that flips gun politics upside down, gun control advocates may help the GOP keep control of the U.S. Senate by backing endangered Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania's pivotal Senate race.

However, those powerful endorsements could be overshadowed by Donald Trump's lewd comments about women, which have thrust the Republican Party into chaos and threatened to derail what had appeared to be Toomey's growing momentum as reflected in recent polls.

Toomey has denounced Trump's vulgar comments as indefensible, but he has stopped short of saying he won't vote for the Republican presidential nominee. Democratic challenger Katie McGinty, who supports Hillary Clinton, has called on Toomey to "man up" and oppose Trump.

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Toomey had been heading into Election Day with some high-profile help. He won the endorsement of gun safety groups headed by former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Democratic congresswoman Gabby Giffords of Arizona because of his unsuccessful quest to convince fellow Republicans to expand background checks of gun buyers. Both groups typically support Democrats, who have protested the lack of action by congressional Republicans in the wake of a string of mass shootings.

But Toomey insulated himself on the issue by championing a bill in 2013 with Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., to expand background checks in the wake of the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn. He bucked the majority of his party to push the legislation, which would have required background checks on anyone buying firearms at gun shows or online. The bill, backed by President Obama, failed to pass the Senate.

Toomey believes the endorsements by the Bloomberg and Giffords' groups underscore his independence and could help pry Clinton supporters away from McGinty, who would be Pennsylvania's first female senator if she wins. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly a million people in the state.

"There are a lot of Hillary Clinton supporters who are going to support me," predicted Toomey, who has denounced Clinton as corrupt. "I think Pennsylvania voters want a senator who is going to stand up to the bad ideas of either party."

McGinty has pushed back against Toomey — the last surviving Republican elected statewide — for opposing a ban on assault weapons and for continuing to tout his support from the National Rifle Association.

"You see Pat Toomey in Philadelphia saying he's all about gun control," McGinty said. "Then outside the city, he's bragging about his perfect record with the NRA."

The outcome of the race between Toomey, a conservative former Wall Street banker, and McGinty, a liberal former state environmental protection chief, could be decisive in determining whether Democrats wrest control of the Senate from Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of five seats to win the majority, or four if the nation elects a Democratic vice president to break Senate ties.

Toomey and McGinty were tied 46%-46% in a poll released last week by Monmouth University. McGinty was 4 points ahead of Toomey in the university's previous poll, taken about a month ago. The latest poll also showed Clinton up 10 points over Donald Trump, 50% to 40%.

A Quinnipiac University poll released a day later showed Toomey up by 8 points, 50% to 42%, also a gain from prior polls.

It's not yet clear how Friday's release of the 2005 Trump tape will affect the race.

Toomey has been walking a fine line throughout his campaign, neither endorsing nor opposing Trump while making it clear he doesn't support Clinton.

"I have not endorsed Donald Trump and I have repeatedly spoken out against his flawed policies and his outrageous comments, including his indefensible and appalling comments about women," Toomey said in a statement. "Katie McGinty has yet to say a single word against Hillary Clinton's disastrous policies that have endangered our country, her widespread dishonesty, or the corruption of her behavior with the Clinton Foundation."

McGinty said it is "well past time for Pat Toomey to man up" and oppose Trump.

"Senator Toomey is leading with calculation about his political future instead of with courage to stand up for his constituents in Pennsylvania, who deserve to have a president and a presidential nominee of decent and honorable character," she said.

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Toomey is still counting on ticket-splitting voters to help him keep his job.

Pennsylvanians have often split their votes, supporting Democrats Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Barack Obama for president while simultaneously electing former Republican senators Arlen Specter and Rick Santorum. Pennsylvania voters have supported the Democratic Party's nominee in the last six presidential elections.

"Ticket-splitting is certainly what Toomey's campaign is hoping for," said Michael Berkman, a political science professor and director of the Center for American Political Responsiveness at Pennsylvania State University. "However, ticket-splitting has been declining nationwide, so I'm not sure Toomey can count on Pennsylvania bucking that trend."

Toomey has gotten a boost from an ad paid for by Independence USA Political Action Committee, which is run by Bloomberg. Toomey also is one of only two Republican senators to win the endorsement of Americans for Responsible Solutions, the gun control group formed by Giffords and her husband, Mark Kelly.

"Chances are that no candidate is ever going to be perfect for you on every issue, but when brave people buck party orthodoxy and demonstrate bold, pragmatic leadership, they deserve support from all of us," Bloomberg said in a statement supporting Toomey.

McGinty has countered by emphasizing her endorsement from CeaseFire Pennsylvania, a Philadelphia-based group that supports universal background checks, a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, a ban on firearms being sold to people on terror watch lists, and a prohibition on gun purchases by anyone convicted of misdemeanor hate crimes.

"The people who know Senator Toomey best endorsed me," McGinty said.





Toomey's leadership on the background-check bill has given him a "veneer of bipartisanship" and underscored his relatively moderate stance among Republicans on the gun issue, Berkman said. But it could also hurt Toomey with his conservative base, the professor said.

"Pennsylvania is a pretty gun-friendly state," Berkman said.

In June, Toomey voted against Democratic bills opposed by the NRA to strengthen gun laws in the wake of the mass shootings at an Orlando gay nightclub. He voted for a compromise bill by Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, that aimed to keep guns out of the hands of people on the government's "no-fly" list of suspected terrorists. Collins' bill, which was also opposed by the NRA, failed to get the 60 votes needed to pass.

"There has been a lot of blowback (from gun rights' groups)," Toomey said about his background check bill. "But when people who have been skeptical actually read the bill, the vast majority of them support it. We do not infringe on Second Amendment rights. I did what I think most Pennsylvanians think is the right thing."

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