There are plenty of voices in the Western press that believe that the United State’s behavior in allowing the

Russian air campaign in Syria is a “betrayal” of the allies of the

United States, and perhaps of the Syrian people themselves. At best, the

United States has allowed foreign fighters to flock to Syria while

Russian air strikes have pummelled groups that the United States

continues to insist should be major players in the discussion about who

should run Syria. The Assad regime is advancing with the help of Hezbollah fighters, a terrorist organization; Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps fighters; and Iraqi Shia militias. At worst, the United States may have pulled the plug

on the anti-tank munitions that these groups were using to advance in

Syria back in December, contributing to the sudden collapse of the rebel

lines near Aleppo. In Foreign Policy Magazine, IISS’s Emile Hokayem argues that

President Barack Obama’s policies amount to a “disastrous betrayal” of

Syria’s moderate rebels: After a slow start — and despite wishful Western assessments

that Moscow could not sustain a meaningful military effort abroad — the

Russian campaign is finally delivering results for the Assad regime.

This week, Russian airpower allowed Assad and his allied paramilitary

forces to finally cut off the narrow, rebel-held “Azaz corridor” that

links the Turkish border to the city of Aleppo. The city’s full

encirclement is now a distinct possibility, with regime troops and

Shiite fighters moving from the south, the west, and the north. Should

the rebel-held parts of the city ultimately fall, it will be a dramatic

victory for Assad and the greatest setback to the rebellion since the

start of the uprising in 2011. In parallel, Russia has put Syria’s neighbors on notice of the new rules of the game.

Jordan was spooked into downgrading its help for the Southern Front,

the main non-Islamist alliance in the south of the country, which has so

far prevented extremist presence along its border. Turkey’s shooting

down of a Russian military aircraft that crossed its airspace in

November backfired: Moscow vengefully directed its firepower on Turkey’s

rebel friends across Idlib and Aleppo provinces. Moscow also courted

Syria’s Kurds, who found a new partner to play off the United States in

their complex relations with Washington. And Russia has agreed to a

temporary accommodation of Israel’s interests in southern Syria. Inside Syria, and despite the polite wishes of Secretary of State

John Kerry, the overwhelming majority of Russian strikes have hit

non-Islamic State (IS) fighters. Indeed, Moscow and the Syrian regime

are content to see the United States bear the lion’s share of the effort

against the jihadi monster in the east, instead concentrating on mowing

through the mainstream rebellion in western Syria. Their ultimate

objective is to force the world to make an unconscionable choice between

Assad and IS.

Foreign Policy

Obama's Disastrous Betrayal of the Syrian Rebels What a difference a year makes in Syria. And the introduction of massive Russian airpower. Last February, President Bashar al-Assad's regime and its Shiite auxiliaries mounted a large-scale attempt to encircle Aleppo, the northern city divided between regime and rebels since 2012 and battered by the dictator's barrel bombs. View full page →

Jo Cox, a British MP and member of the Labour Party, and Omid Nouripour a member of the German Bundestag, argue in The Telegraph that the United States

is actively selling out Syria’s rebels — at the cost of regional and

global security — and Europe needs to stand up to Obama, Russian

President Vladimir Putin, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: The problem is that until now Europe has never spoken with

one voice on this conflict. In negotiations for a Syrian peace plan

there has been weak cooperation, no joint strategy and a distinct lack

of sustained pressure that will be necessary to contain the conflict and

put a stop to Assad’s brutal tactics. This is a problem because the US seems intent on a peace

settlement that will be dangerously unbalanced. Such is the US

determination to secure deal at any cost that they are prepared to offer

far too many concessions to Assad and their Russian allies. This

undermines the Syrian opposition, who feel betrayed by the international

community. It also diminishes the chance for a sustainable peace and

relegates the protection of civilians virtually out of the conference

room. If we don’t stand up for them, nobody will. The fact that Russia has intensified its bombing campaign in Syria during the build up to peace talks

speaks to the futility of the US approach and the need for a much more

muscular European response. One which must start today, on two fronts. […] The idea that you can build trust while the Syrian government

and some opposition groups continue to systematically kill and starve

civilians is absurd. Broad coalitions of Syrian civil society groups

have made clear that if they don’t see progress to end the regime’s

medieval tactics of war, the peace talks will not be credible in their

eyes – and so any agreements will not last. If nothing is done to

improve the humanitarian situation of the many suffering Syrians, more of the Sunni population will be alienated, driven closer to Da’esh rather than towards a negotiated settlement to this war.

Telegraph.co.uk

We must not let America sell out the Syrian rebels to Putin and Assad The problem is that until now Europe has never spoken with one voice on this conflict. In negotiations for a Syrian peace plan there has been weak cooperation, no joint strategy and a distinct lack of sustained pressure that will be necessary to contain the conflict and put a stop to Assad's brutal tactics. View full page →

Adding to this sense of “betrayal” is the fact that Saudi Arabia and

Qatar have pledged that they are willing to send ground troops to Syria

to combat ISIS, but so far indications are that the United States is

opposed to such a move. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Iranian

Revolutionary Guard Corps troops have been sent to Syria to support

Assad while the US has done little to stop them:

While the coalition of Russian and regime airstrikes, and ground troops

from Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq, have assisted the Assad regime in its

advance in the north. Voice of America reports that some rebel forces,

“citing betrayal,” have retreated from the fighting near Aleppo.

VOA

Citing Betrayal, Some Syrian Rebels Withdraw From Front Citing Betrayal, Some Syrian Rebels Withdraw From Front After a week-long attack from Russian warplanes, some Syrian rebels are withdrawing from the fight in northern Syria. The rebels are fighting against forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Some anti-Assad forces have taken shelter in tunnels or bomb-made craters, but some fighters are quitting. View full page →

The obvious (and very important) analysis is that the Russian air

support has been absolutely critical to Assad’s victories, as have the

foreign fighters upon which the regime is now completely reliant, but

what’s less obvious from just looking at the maps is that these foreign

fighters have streamed into Syria right under the noses of the US air

force:

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If the Obama administration has betrayed Syria’s rebels, the nature

and scope of that betrayal may go much further than any of these

editorials suggest. How so? The answer has everything to do with the

rebels’ complicated relationship with Syria’s Kurds. Syrian rebels in Aleppo say that they are now surrounded by

enemies, and yet at first glance the maps that even rebel groups put

forth suggests otherwise to the untrained eye.

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The problem is that the Syrian rebels are not just fighting Assad’s

coalition of forces. Kurdish YPG forces, shown in the map above in

yellow, have broken their truce with the rebels and extended their own territory. Syrian

rebels cannot move through territory held by the YPG, so by extending

their battle lines east to Nubul and Al-Zahraa last week the Syrian

regime has effectively cut Aleppo’s supply route to the north. The YPG has also made its own advances:

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Turkey supports many Syrian rebel groups, and several Kurdish groups

are also allied with Syria’s rebels, but both Turkey and the majority of

Syria’s rebels are opposed to the YPG. Aaron Stein, the Senior Resident

Fellow for Turkey with the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East,

explains that the YPG is benefiting from protection from both the US and

the Russian air forces, a dynamic which is heightening tensions with

Turkey: With US air support, the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union

Party (PYD) has managed to consolidate control over much of the

Turkish-Syrian border. Its militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG),

is manning a several hundred mile long front line against the Islamic

State (ISIS or ISIL). In parallel, YPG forces in Efrin appear to be

receiving Russian air support, particularly near Azaz, a key city

currently occupied by elements of the Turkish-backed anti-Assad

insurgency. Open source airstrike data suggests that the SDF could seize

Manbij with US backing, while the Assad regime moves north from Aleppo

to Al Bab. The YPG, in turn, could then cut a deal with the regime to

travel through regime held territory to Efrin. Turkey has said

such action would result in military action. However, this proposed

route may be protected from Turkish bombardment. Ankara is no longer

flying missions over Syria over concerns that Russian aircraft could

target Turkish aircraft, in retaliation for the November 24 bombing of

one of its jets. Turkish artillery has struck positions inside Syria,

but the M4 highway—the road that could link the three Kurdish cantons—is

out of range. The PYD is Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan

Workers’ Party (PKK), a US-, EU-, and Turkish-designated terror

organization that has waged an insurgent campaign in Turkey for autonomy

since 1984. A large number of the YPG’s leadership spent time as PKK

members in the group’s stronghold in Iraqi Kurdistan’s Kandil Mountains

before being dispatched to Syria to aid in the governing of Rojava.

Turkey does not distinguish between the PYD and PKK, arguing that the

former is simply a subunit of the latter. Specifically, both the PKK and

the PYD have recognized Turkish and Syrian territorial integrity,

albeit with an important caveat: the idea of “autonomous governance”

includes governing structures that centralize power in PYD hands, in

parallel with a longer term proposal for free travel between other

Kurdish areas—a proposal Ankara views as akin to a plan for an

independent Kurdistan.

Atlantic Council Turkey's Problems in Aleppo The Atlantic Council promotes constructive leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic Community in meeting global challenges. Founded in 1961, the Council provides an essential forum for navigating the dramatic shifts in economic and political influence that are shaping the twenty-first century by educating and galvanizing its uniquely influential, nonpartisan network of international political, business, and intellectual leaders. View full page →

Turkey is further frustrated because they will be the ones who have

to deal with a massive wave of Syrian refugees who are fleeing the

fighting in the north. Already tens of thousands are building on

Turkey’s borders, and today Turkish deputy prime minister Numan

Kurtulmus warned that 600,000 refugees could soon be headed to Turkish border crossings. From Turkey’s perspective, Turkey bears the brunt of those fleeing Russian bombardment, Russia has violated their air space,

bombed the Turkmen who have strong ties to the Turks, broken the battle

lines of Syrian rebel groups which Turkey has supported, and they have

done so while Turkey’s enemies — Assad and the YPG — have grown

stronger. Furthermore, the United States has failed to designate the YPG, the

fighting force in Syria, as a terrorist organization, choosing instead

to give that designation to the YPG’s parent organization the PKK. ABC’s

Alexander Marquardt reports:

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Voice of America’s Jamie Dettmer provides more context:

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The former leader of the Free Syrian Army has also expressed his concerns with the YPG:

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Turkey is warning of a worsening humanitarian crisis in northern Syria,

and the Assad regime is moving closer and closer to the Turkish border:

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— James Miller