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The Los Angeles Rams (11-5) will be looking for their first playoff win since 2004 when they were in St. Louis as they host the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons (10-6) on Saturday as solid home favorites. The Rams have not won a postseason game in Los Angeles since 1985 while the Falcons hope last year's playoff run will help them in this tough spot on the road.

NFL point spread: The Rams opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 50.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.8-17.5 Rams (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta got to play two playoff games at home last year en route to the Super Bowl, but this team has also gone 12-5 straight up in its previous 17 on the road, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

The Falcons have played well at night lately as well, going 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 prime-time appearances. Led by reigning NFL MVP Matt Ryan and a solid running game, Atlanta's offense has the leadership and experience needed to outplay a young Los Angeles team despite being away from home.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams will have the best offensive player on the field in running back Todd Gurley, who scored an NFL-best 19 touchdowns in 15 games this season. Gurley would have likely won the league's rushing title had he played in the regular-season finale, too, with rest and health being bigger priorities for first-year head coach Sean McVay.

Los Angeles second-year quarterback Jared Goff may not have played in as many games as Ryan yet either, but he had more touchdowns and less interceptions this season.

Smart pick

The Falcons have not been the same team without former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, as his replacement Steve Sarkisian has been underwhelming at best. They have averaged 22.1 points compared to 33.8 a year ago, and Ryan's numbers have not been anywhere close to his MVP campaign.

Meanwhile, the Rams are averaging an NFL-high 29.9 points and look like their opponent last season offensively. Even though Los Angeles is inexperienced, this is clearly the better team and will cover the spread.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in the Falcons' last seven games against the Rams.

The total has gone over in five of the Rams' last seven games in the playoffs.

The Falcons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games at night.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.