Forget about the balloons, the expressions of party unity and the quadrennial celebration of partisan pride. GOP insiders are dreading the Republican convention in Cleveland this week.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 key battleground states. Nearly two-thirds of Republican insiders, 65 percent, said they are less excited about this year’s convention — which a number of top Republicans are avoiding — than previous editions.


Republican insiders are far less excited about their party’s convention than their Democratic counterparts: Roughly a quarter of Democrats, 27 percent, said they are less excited about their convention in Philadelphia next week.

“I'm an Ohioan. I was excited for our state to welcome the RNC. Now it has turned into a potentially violent spectacle that the leaders of our party are avoiding,” said one Ohio Republican — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “I'm dreading it, and I'm dreading the [news] stories.”

Even those Republicans who think Donald Trump is well-positioned to win in November lamented the fact a number of top GOP officials are declining to attend the convention.

“It would be great if Republicans could find a way to bury the hatchet and come together,” said a Michigan Republican. “The absence of so many of our great leaders is frustrating and disappointing.”

Only 17 percent of GOP insiders said they are more excited about this year’s convention than in past years — though many of their comments were mordant. Numerous insiders compared the convention to a train wreck or car accident.

“Excited in the way one can’t stop staring at a train wreck,” said a Pennsylvania Republican who is “more excited” about Cleveland. “It's a mixture of disgust and fascination.”

“A NASCAR race is always more exciting the more wrecks you have,” added a Nevada Republican.

But that doesn’t mean the insiders think Trump will bomb when the presumptive nominee addresses the convention on Thursday night. Sixty-four percent of GOP insiders expect him “to make an effective case for his candidacy” in the speech, while 36 percent believe his speech won’t be effective.

“I think Trump's new campaign manager has talked some sense into him and he realizes now that the same kind of rhetoric that he used during the primaries, which earned him hundreds of thousands of dollars of free earned media time and boosted his candidacy, will no longer work,” a Colorado Republican said. “He needs to be seen now as ‘presidential,’ and he has certainly been doing that.”

“Trump will read a decent speech,” an Iowa Republican added. “He will give an adequate delivery. He will not lash out from the podium. He will not make any grave errors. He will win back some of the GOP base as they resign themselves to the binary choice of Trump vs. Hillary, but I'd be surprised if he makes any significant inroads with undecided voters.”

One Virginia Republican gave credit to some of Trump’s new campaign hires, who were brought on to bring a new level of professionalism to the real-estate mogul’s operation.

“Finally, Trump has surrounded himself with a team that knows that selling a candidacy — a vision for the country — is different than selling wine or a golf course,” the Republican said.

But not all Republicans are as optimistic about Trump’s speech.

“If they put Trump behind the podium with a teleprompter, we'll get that goofy, chopped-up speech where he tries to inject some of his Trumpisms into a canned speech. It comes off badly,” said a Wisconsin Republican. “If they let him go off the cuff, that could be fun! Either way, he won’t make an effective case. He'll beat up on Clinton and use his lines about building a wall, barring Muslims, hijacking trade deals and raising tariffs — so what’s new that makes a compelling case to 65 percent of the people who simply don’t like him? Nothing.”

That connects with a consistent theme in the Caucus surveys: the number of Republican insiders who aren’t actively rooting for Trump to succeed.

“Conventions are usually about being excited for your party’s nominee,” an Ohio Republican said. “This one is about how to help the other people you care about while you have the top of the ticket embarrassing you.”

“The general feeling is one of the impending train wreck on the tracks,” an Iowa Republican added. “You know it will be a spectacular explosion, but you just can’t avert your eyes … but you really wish it wouldn’t happen.”

That dynamic has left some Republicans shrinking from what is usually a four-day display of party unity.

“I am more excited about my oral surgery this fall than I am about this convention,” one New Hampshire Republican said.

Added another: “I would rather watch my washing machine spin.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Christopher Murray, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Michigan: Jill Alper, Saul Anuzis, Andrea Bitely, Lori Carpentier, Howard Edelson, Jordan Gehrke, Steve Hood, Joe Lehman, Dennis Lennox, Katie Packer, Ronna Romney McDaniel, John Truscott, Stephanie White, John Yob

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.