As Cubs fans everywhere collectively salivate over this news, Chicago Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein needs to address the elephant in the room: is committing a massive sum of money to Harper the right move for this franchise?

The 24-year-old, former National League MVP, could command a contract northward of $400 million when he hits the free agent market after the 2018 season. Harper told USA Today Sports in February that he doesn’t want teams to “sell me short” in free agency, meaning his reported preference for landing in Chicago doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll take a discounted price from the Cubs to ensure he lands in his preferred destination.

If the Cubs sign Harper to a colossal contract, they will likely have to gut their roster elsewhere. Even the Cubs, a rich, big-market team, still have a finite amount of money to distribute between its players. With many of its young stars eventually due for huge pay raises, the Cubs would likely need to proactively let go of some of their most popular players to make room for Harper.

2019 will be Bryant’s second season in arbitration and don’t expect him to sign a team-friendly deal like Rizzo’s given Boras is also Bryant’s agent and almost always lets his players hit free agency to drive up the price on the open market.

In 2019, the Cubs will also be done with rookie contracts on a host of other guys, dealing out arbitration to Kyle Hendricks, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber and Javy Baez. (Willson Contreras, Albert Almora Jr. and Carl Edwards Jr. will still be on rookie deals in 2019.)

Arbitration/rookie deals for all those guys will bring the Cubs past $100 million for 2019 — a lot of money committed to only 12 players (assuming all the guys listed so far remain a part of the picture).

That also only takes care of three pitchers, leaving nine to 10 spots on the pitching staff to allocate money to. It’s worth noting Lester will be 35 in 2019.

The Cubs will need to pour a ton of resources into the pitching staff this offseason and beyond. -Per CSN-Chicago reporter Tony Andracki

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber all hit free agency in 2022. Willson Contreras and Albert Almora follow suit a year later. Although Harper’s free agency occurs in 2018, if he commands the $400 million contract that most people expect, it’d have to be extended across at least six or seven seasons. Therefore, his next contract would likely weigh down the payroll concurrently with any extensions the Cubs plan on giving the rest of these players.

Cubs Contract Situation

The Cubs brass will have a difficult enough time taking care of all the players mentioned above without factoring in Harper’s predicted contract. The finite-nature of a club’s financial resources ensures that the Cubs won’t be able to keep all six players and Harper unless the majority of the incumbent Cubs are willing to settle for hometown discounts. Additionally, Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward will also remain under contract in 2018 when Harper could theoretically sign with the Cubs.

Bleacher Nation writer Brett Taylor examined whether adding Harper while still keeping Bryant is plausible.

I should point out, though, that Harper is a free agent after 2018, but Bryant is not scheduled for free agency until after 2021. It’s not totally inconceivable then that the Cubs could figure out a way to get Harper, play out through Bryant’s arbitration years, and then see what’s what when 2021 actually rolls around.

Translation: it isn’t inconceivable for the Cubs to finesse their way into balancing out massive contracts for both Harper and Bryant. If a selection of Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Almora, and Contreras remain on the team supplemented with other lower-price position players, the Cubs should stay in good shape in the hitting department.

However, this approach would have a deleterious effect on the meticulous rebuilding Epstein executed over those first three and a half or four years of his tenure with the Cubs. He didn’t carefully accumulate this roster depth to throw it all away by investing most of the Cubs money into one or two players.

Another real concern about signing Harper is whether such a move would hamper the Cubs ability to restock their soon-to-be-depleted starting pitching corps. If anything shuts the Cubs championship window earlier than expected, it’s the myriad of question marks surrounding the complexion of the starting pitching unit moving forward.

John Lackey and Jake Arrieta become free agents after this season. Lackey’s age will probably either force his retirement or scare the Cubs away from re-signing him, while Arrieta will undoubtedly attract suitors who are willing to shell out dollar amounts that exceed the Cubs price range. In terms of the fifth starter, neither Eddie Butler nor Brett Anderson are long-term solutions for this pitching staff. Jon Lester will remain on the team until he becomes a free agent in 2021, but he’s 33 years old right now and he’d defy normal aging curves if he continues to pitch like a top-of-the-rotation guy as he ages.

Kyle Hendricks, who becomes a free agent in 2021 as well, is a cost-controlled young pitcher that the Cubs should be able to rely on moving forward. However, outside of Hendricks and a [probably] worse version of Jon Lester, the Cubs need to fill out their rotation somehow.

As such, you can probably be sure the Cubs, beginning with the run-up to this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, will be active in acquiring multiple veteran pitchers via trade and free agency. This coming winter brings us the likes of Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto (assuming an opt-out), Masahiro Tanaka, and Michael Pineda as free agents. When Harper hits the market the following offseason, he’ll be joined by starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw (assuming opt-out), David Price (assuming opt-out), Dallas Keuchel, Garrett Richards, Patrick Corbin, and Drew Smyly, among others. Given the Cubs’ deep and obvious near-, mid- and long-term needs in the rotation, they may be poised to spend a lot of blood and treasure on starting pitchers. If that’s the case, then they may think better of committing to Harper at the going rates. -Per CBS Sports writer Dayn Perry

This is where signing Harper for the projected $400 million becomes questionable. Would committing to Harper in 2018 deter Epstein from restocking the starting rotation over the next couple of seasons? If the Cubs do sign Harper in 2018, would that hamstring them financially for the life of his contract, and prevent them from signing the free-agent pitchers that they may need to remain championship contenders moving forward?

If Epstein calculates that the answer to either of these question is yes, then he will probably shy away from participating in the Harper free agency sweepstakes.

Sure, there are other avenues the Cubs can explore if they want to add starting pitching moving forward. However, there are problems with each. The trade market is always a viable option, and it’s through this channel that the Cubs acquired both Arrieta and Hendricks. However, the drawback is fairly obvious: to obtain talent a team must give talent away which means the Cubs would likely have to gut their roster anyway.

Developing talent through the farm system is another way to obtain pitching. However, the Cubs farm system is decidedly weaker in pitching talent than it is in position talent. Dylan Cease presents the next great hope for the Cubs in the pitching department, but his three-pitch arsenal and dynamic fastball velocity may make him more suited for a back end of the bullpen role rather than a spot in the starting rotation. He currently is on a Single A team, so he is probably several years from reaching the Cubs anyways. Besides Cease (67th in MLB 2017 Prospect Rankings), the Cubs don’t have any other top pitching prospects in their farm system.

Signing Bryce Harper to a massive contract looks great on paper. However, when we delve further into the projected consequences of signing him, we can clearly see that the move isn’t as much of a no-brainer as it seems at first glance.

Selling out on Harper at the expense of shoring up other problem areas on the roster is a short-sighted solution to the challenge of extending the Cub’s championship window as far into the future as possible. If the chips fall favorably, and the Cubs are able to trade for starting pitching without gutting the current lineup too deeply and/or several of the Cubs pitching prospects develop into stars, then going after Harper makes more sense.

However, at this point, revamping the starting rotation may be the key to keeping this team competitive for as long as possible. Therefore, the Cubs should make their decision on signing Harper based on how it will impact their ability to sign quality starting pitchers moving forward rather than approaching the problem the other way around.

Paul Steeno spent 11 years pretending he was good at running. After hanging up the track spikes and officially becoming an elite hobby jogger, he decided to do something that he was actually good at: like writing about the Cubs. He is also a perpetually frustrated Chicago Bulls fan. This one time he got super lucky and ran 3:52 in the 1500 meter run.