We know two things about Pete Carroll coached/Russell Wilson led teams: they run the ball and they run it well. Each year of the Wilson era the Seahawks finished with a top five rushing attack.

There’s more to winning than rushing yards, but for the sake of argument, let’s assume that another top five rushing finish is key to Seattle’s success in 2016 as well.

Using super fancy/rudimentary math, I can tell you that in the last four years a team needed to average 2,220 rushing yards to crack the top five. That makes a loose, but useful target for what the Seahawks need to do in 2016: rush for 2,220+ yards.

In a world without Rawls, the Seahawks would have a hard time hitting that target. But just how big of a contributor does he need to be? Not as big as you might think. The Seahawks don’t need Rawls to be peak Lynch (1,250+ yards per year), they just need him to be 65%-75% of peak Lynch. In other words, they need Rawls to be more or less what he was last year.

In an era where the “one running back to rule them all” approach is falling out of fashion, the 2015 Seahawks provide a repeatable model for surpassing the 2,220 threshold in 2016 as well.

This conservative model shows that even if Rawls is essentially the same (within 5% of 2015 production), it doesn’t require a herculean effort by the team to reach Top 5 territory:

Wilson’s production mirrors 2015 (47 yards fewer than his four-year average)

The back-up (Collins/Brooks) only needs 30 yards per game (a modest proposition considering the likelihood Rawls doesn’t average as many carries as peak Lynch)

The injury fill-in (Michael) only needs 10 yards per game (32 yards fewer than 2015)

The third-down back (Prosise) mirrors the underwhelming production of Jackson in 2015

The “other” category — fullback runs, miscellaneous trick plays, Jon Ryan adventures, etc. — hits Seattle’s four-year average (74 yards fewer than 2015)

This isn’t rocket science, and it isn’t even a projection. What it is, is a feasible rushing blueprint for a Seahawks team that is in transition.

If Rawls has a monster season, all the better. But unlike past years when the Seahawks needed elite production from Lynch to succeed, the 2016 Seahawks are much better equipped for the post-elite back era.

The Seahawks don’t need Rawls to be Lynch. They need him to lead a stable of runners who are all asked to do things that should be well within their current abilities.

Put another way: Rawls doesn’t need to start an earthquake; he just needs to lead the groundswell.

Rumble, young man, rumble.