1. Diamondbacks: Justin Upton, ss, Great Bridge HS, Chesapeake, Va. The Diamondbacks have been telling teams for close to a week that they'll take Upton, the younger brother of 2002 No. 2 overall choice B.J. Upton and the high schooler with perhaps the highest ceiling since Ken Griffey Jr. While a deal had yet to be finalized as of last Monday night—Arizona is believed to have made an opening offer of a $4 million bonus, with Upton's side countering with a contract similar to the $5.5 million deal the Diamondbacks gave 2004 first-rounder Stephen Drew on May 30—that shouldn't stop Upton from going No. 1. Plan B appears to be Wichita State righthander Mike Pelfrey.

2. Royals: Alex Gordon, 3b, U. of Nebraska

Originally rumored to be looking for an extreme signability pick, the Royals will take the best player on the board in Gordon, a five-tool third baseman who's the most complete hitter in college baseball. His asking price is believed to be a major league contract in the neighborhood of $5 million. Kansas City has visited with Upton and would take him on the off chance he falls, and also thinks highly of North Carolina high school outfielder Cameron Maybin and Long Beach State shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.

3. Mariners: Jeff Clement, c, U. of Southern California

The Mariners were expected to take Tulowitzki as recently as Friday, but they're looking for a catcher and a power bat. Clement fits the bill on both counts, and as a bonus he's lefthanded. Seattle would gladly snap up Upton or Gordon if one of them falls to No. 3. Rumors persist that the Mariners are considering Stanford first baseman John Mayberry Jr., their unsigned 2002 first-rounder, but he would be a huge reach.

4. Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman, 3b, U. of Virginia

The Nationals have been locked in on Zimmerman for weeks, but they were tempted by Texas high school outfielder Jay Bruce after Bruce's impressive RFK Stadium workout on Saturday. In the end, the fact that Zimmerman is closer to the big leagues and is a potential Gold Glove third baseman are the deciding factors, though Bruce has one of the highest ceilings in the draft.

5. Brewers: Ryan Braun, 3b, U. of Miami

The Brewers keep their draft board closer to the vest than most clubs. Scouting director Jack Zduriencik's preference is believed to be Maybin, but four of Milwaukee's last five first-round picks were high schoolers and GM Doug Melvin wants a more experienced player this time around. The Brewers would love a crack at Gordon or Zimmerman, but instead will address their needs at third base with Braun, one of the best college bats available. They also looked at Tulowitzki, but he balked at the idea of moving to the hot corner.

6. Blue Jays: Ricky Romero, lhp, Cal State Fullerton

This is the biggest lock in the first 10 picks. Barring an almost impossible scenario where Upton or Gordon would drop this far, the Blue Jays are going to take Romero, the best lefty in a draft that's thin at that position.

7. Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki, ss, Long Beach State

The Rockies preferred to take Tennessee righthander Luke Hochevar, a Colorado native. But after two days of discussions, Colorado couldn't get any assurance that it wouldn't be in for a lengthy negotiation with Hochevar's adviser, Scott Boras. On Monday afternoon, the Rockies decided to pass on Hochevar, who is thought to desire a major league contract in the neighborhood of $5 million. Getting Tulowitzki is a nice consolation, especially after it looked like he would go third overall, and he gets the nod over Bruce and Maybin.

8. Devil Rays: Wade Townsend, rhp, Dripping Springs, Texas

The biggest mystery in the first 10 picks is this one. For weeks, the Devil Rays bore down on three players: Clement, St. John's reliever Craig Hansen and former Rice righthander Townsend. But in the last couple of days before the draft, Clement suddenly jumped to No. 3; Hansen, who has been a reliever for most of his college career, scared off Tampa Bay with his demands similar to fellow Boras client Hochevar; and Townsend bombed in a Sunday workout at St. Lucie, Fla. The scouting department likes Florida high school outfielder Andrew McCutchen, but upper management wants a more experienced player. After six straight college picks go off the board, there's no obvious alternative. Townsend, the eighth overall pick a year ago by the Orioles, could come at a discount after sitting out a year, and that might keep him in Tampa Bay's mix. If he doesn't go here, he could drop all the way out of the first round.

9. Mets: Mike Pelfrey, rhp, Wichita State U.

Boras advises the top three pitching prospects in this draft in Pelfrey, Hochevar and Hansen. Pelfrey is looking for the same kind of contract as the others, and he looks like the only one of the three who won't have to drop down in the first round to get it. If he does prove too rich for the Mets, they'd turn to Bruce. GM Omar Minaya was poised to draft Townsend last year while with the Expos, but has backed off after Sunday's workout at the Mets' spring-training complex.

10. Tigers: Cameron Maybin, of, T.C. Roberson HS, Arden, N.C.

New Tigers scouting director David Chadd used to coach at Wichita State, and he'd love to be able to grab Pelfrey, whom he knows personally. He can take solace in the fact that Maybin, Baseball America's No. 3-rated prospect, hasn't found a fit by now and will be available at No. 10. If Maybin does find a home before Detroit, the Tigers will turn to Tulowitzki if he drops or McCutchen.