An industry representative on the sidelines of the meeting described the situation as "downbeat but not hopeless". Mr Robb estimated there was an 80 per cent chance of a deal before the weekend.

Time was running out for the politically-sensitive trade deal to be signed because of an October election in Canada and US congressional and presidential elections next year. Political leaders in both North American countries are facing growing pressure from anti free trade opponents, including trade unions, environmental activists, dairy farmers and sugar growers.

"If we all leave here without a deal it doesn't augur well with the politics," Mr Robb said.

"To say we will come back in two years...if you don't grab a deal while it's there, it's amazing how many of them don't come back."

The US on Thursday tabled two low-ball propositions on improved market access for Queensland sugar growers that Mr Robb and the local industry deemed as "not satisfactory".

Talks between the 12 countries were continuing after AFR Weekend's Friday evening deadline.

The 12 TPP countries representing 40 per cent of the global economy are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US and Vietnam.


The US is spearheading the TPP as part of its "rebalance" to Asia, to tap into the fast growing economic region and to counteract China's rising influence.

Ministers are trying to resolve dozens of other technical issues on a diverse range of issues, including intellectual property rights for US drug and technology firms, market access for farmers and car makers, investment protection clauses and rules for state-owned enterprises, labour conditions and environmental standards.

The US continues to pressure Australia to extend the patent length on medicines known as biologics for up to 12 years, in a bid to boost the profits of big US pharmaceutical firms. Australia has a "red line" of five years and would not jeopardise the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, Mr Robb said.

Mr Robb is also holding firm against demands to relent on footnotes Australia wants included in the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) chapter, to safeguard the environment and public healthcare.

An ISDS is an international arbitration procedure giving a foreign investor the right to sue a foreign government over a law, regulation or court ruling.

At the heart of the dairy market access fight is a standoff between the US and Canada. The US rejected Canada's initial offer to allow more US butter, cheese and milk to be sold across the northern border, regarding it as inadequate market access. The US is unlikely to open up its dairy market to Australia and New Zealand unless it is compensated by a better deal in Canada.

The US blindsided Australia and New Zealand on Wednesday, withdrew a long-standing offer to Australian and New Zealand dairy farmers to sell more cheese in the US.

"We're quite concerned that we might be left out of a deal," said Australian Dairy Farmers president Noel Campbell, who is on the island of Maui on the sidelines of the talks.


The Obama administration's trade representative, Mike Froman, is constrained from conditions set by members of Congress.

Sugar is again a bugbear for Australia, after the 2004 free trade agreement with the US infamously missed out on boosting the quota above 87,000 tonnes.

Lowball offers

US negotiators had tabled two propositions to allow more Australian sugar to be sold in the US, but Mr Robb has deemed both as inadequate.

"It wasn't satisfactory, but there's movement," Mr Robb said. He is under pressure from Queensland National Party members to strike a better deal.

Politically connected US sugar growers, particularly in Florida, are running a concerted campaign to prevent any more sugar from Australia entering the US.

Australia has an ally in the form of the US Sweetener Users Association, which sent a letter to Mr Froman on Thursday urging him to push for commercially meaningful liberalisation of sugar trade between TPP member countries.

"The United States needs to grant Australia commercially meaningful access for sugar, in the same way that American negotiators are – properly – insisting that other TPP countries give market access for our exports," the SUA said.

The Wall Street Journal editorial on Thursday labelled the US subsidy program as the "Sugar Scandal".

The US consumes about 11 million tonnes a year of sugar, and produces only about 8 million tonnes. The 3 million tonne gap is largely filled by Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Australia is pushing for the right to help meet the shortfall. The US was offering a much lower amount.

"I understand there's a large gap between the two numbers," said Warren Males, head of economics for CaneGrowers. He is in Maui on the sidelines of the talks.