Senate challengers outraise incumbents

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Quick Fix

— A handful of Senate challengers outraised the incumbent in the third quarter — but incumbents still largely hold a cash on hand advantage.


— Former Vice President Joe Biden had a lackluster third quarter haul, and he spent more than he raised — leading some Democrats to express concern about his campaign as Elizabeth Warren catches him in the polls.

— ActBlue, the cornerstone of Democratic small-donor fundraising, saw more than $297 million flow through the platform in the third quarter, as donations from mobile devices become more prevalent.

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Days until the Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia general elections: 19

Days until the Louisiana gubernatorial election: 30

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 109

Days until the 2020 election: 383

TopLine

MONEY MOVES — An early trend is emerging in key battleground states: Senate challengers are outraising the incumbents. In three key battleground races, a Democratic challenger brought in more than the senator against whom they’re running: Mark Kelly beating out Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), Theresa Greenfield outraising Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Sara Gideon outraising Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). And in one of the top GOP targets, John James outraised Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.).

They weren’t the only challengers who outraised sitting senators — independent Al Gross brought in more than Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Democrat Amy McGrath swamped Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky — but the four battleground races are particularly important, as early signs point toward both parties having the resources to compete. However, incumbents broadly have one crucial advantage: With the exception of McSally, they all have more money in the bank. Pros can read more on the exact numbers in our fundraising roundup.

The Senate fundraising reports also help clear up how some primaries will break down. On the Democratic side, Theresa Greenfield, Sara Gideon, North Carolina’s Cal Cunningham and Colorado’s John Hickenlooper all put a lot of distance between themselves and other primary hopefuls in the money race. That’s not the case for the Texas Democratic primary, though. While MJ Hegar raised the most, it probably isn’t enough to chase other competitors like Royce West, Amanda Edwards, Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez or Chris Bell.

Two battleground Republican primaries where we didn’t get complete clarity: Alabama and New Hampshire. There’s no clear frontrunner in the Alabama primary between Rep. Bradley Byrne, Tommy Tuberville, John Merrill and Arnold Mooney — Byrne has a significant cash on hand advantage, but he’s facing one self-funder and another who took out a loan to fund his campaign (and don’t forget about Roy Moore, who barely raised anything but is still in the water). And none of the Republicans in New Hampshire — Corky Messner, Don Bolduc or Bill O’Brien — posted particularly inspiring quarters, as Corey Lewandowski still teases a potential bid.

Presidential Big Board

THE CASH DASH — Biden spent more than $2 million more than he raised and has a cash on hand total well below other top tier candidates, leading some Democrats to wonder about the long-term viability of his campaign. “If he stumbles at all, he’s in big trouble. Is it enough to make it through Iowa and New Hampshire? Probably. But if he comes in third in Iowa, I don’t see how he recovers,” Democratic strategist Joe Trippi told POLITICO’s Marc Caputo and Natasha Korecki. “Biden and his campaign have insisted for months that he’s got a plan and he’s sticking to it. ‘I am confident,’ Biden told reporters on Wednesday after his financial reports revealed his precarious condition. He also said he isn’t changing anything, and then took a veiled shot at Warren for transferring money from her Senate account before entering the presidential race.”

— Candidates are broaching a subject in fundraising that they dared not touch before: impeachment. “Trump and the Democratic presidential candidates are joined by a legion of congressional candidates and party committees who have similarly sought to make money off the specter of impeachment, peppering prospective donors with endless asks for money,” The Center for Public Integrity’s Dave Levinthal and Chris Zubak-Skees wrote. “I would not have felt comfortable doing that — fundraising on impeachment,” said former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), who chaired the NRCC right after House Republicans lost seats following the Clinton impeachment. “Impeachment — it’s very sobering. It’s not a pleasant task.”

THE PROCESS — Colorado is asking the Supreme Court to weigh in on if states can legally bind their Electoral College electors’ votes. “The case stems from the 2016 election, when three Democratic Party electors … were told by then-Secretary of State Wayne Williams that state law required them to vote for Hillary Clinton because she won Colorado’s popular vote,” The Denver Post’s Anna Staver reported. Ultimately, the three electors sued and the 10th circuit ruled that the state’s removal of one of the electors “and nullification of his vote were unconstitutional.”

STAFFING UP — The Trump reelection bid continues to grow: Stephanie Alexander, Jason Simmons and Elissa-Ann Voccola were all hired as regional political directors for Trump Victory. Campaign Pro’s Daniel Strauss has more in his regularly-scheduled staff tracker for Pros.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-N.Y.) soon-to-be endorsement of Bernie Sanders could provide a jolt to his campaign. POLITICO’s Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein have the details of how it came together: “As the 78-year-old Sanders laid in a hospital bed in Nevada after a heart attack, with his presidential campaign in jeopardy, his campaign manager Faiz Shakir received a call and passed his phone to the Vermont senator. It was Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She told Sanders she was coming aboard his campaign, months before she was expected to issue an endorsement.”

— Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) said that she hasn’t made an endorsement yet after CNN reported she was expected to back Sanders, but noted Sanders will visit her district later this month, per The Detroit News’ Beth LeBlanc.

Down the Ballot

THE CASH DASH — ActBlue, the Democratic online fundraising platform, continues to be a difference maker for Democrats. More than $297 million flowed through the platform during the third quarter, the company announced. The platform is still growing, as well: One million new unique donors used the platform in the quarter. Mobile phones are also increasingly important: 58 percent of donations were made via mobile device, the highest percentage of donations made via mobile in a single quarter, ever. In addition, some more odds-and-ends from the filing deadline:

— Primary challengers to several prominent New York City Democrats raised significant amounts of cash in the third quarter, POLITICO New York’s Erin Durkin reported.

— Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) raised $573,000 for his Senate run and has $1.9 million on hand (filing).

— GOP Rep. David Schweikert in AZ-06 raised $136,000 and had $144,000 in cash on hand (filing).

THE HOUSE MAP — Chelsea Clinton won’t run in NY-17 for retiring Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey’s seat. “I’m not considering running,” she said on “The View.” “I understand why people are asking … [but] I think it is a question that shouldn’t just be asked of people whose last name is Clinton on Huntsman.”

— Democrat Ralph Kaehler, a farmer and businessman, said he’d run against freshman GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn in MN-01, per the Post Bulletin’s Matthew Stolle. Democrat Dan Feehan, who narrowly lost to Hagedorn in 2018, is also running.

— Democrat Cort VanOstran, who narrowly lost to GOP Rep. Ann Wagner in MO-02, will not run again, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Kurt Erickson reported.

— House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy endorsed Republican Lisa Scheller’s bid to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in PA-07.

THE SENATE MAP — Barbara Bollier, a Democratic state senator and a doctor, announced she’d run for the Senate in Kansas. Bollier was a former Republican state senator who switched parties last year, saying “as the party turned its back on Kansas values, I turned away from that party,” in her launch video.

— A spokesperson for Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said she will make a decision on a Senate run after the end of the year, per KPVI’s Nick Reynolds.

AD WARS — Republican Woody Thrasher, who is primarying West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, released a new ad taking a shot at Justice, saying “we want our children to stay in West Virginia,” while hitting on a classic grievance: paving the roads.

— Louisiana Republican Eddie Rispone released a pair of ads featuring Trump’s rally in the state last week. The first ad says Louisiana needs to vote out Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, and the second ad features Trump praising Rispone.

HELLO FROM THE OUTSIDE — Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation are planning for an absolutely massive cycle. The GOP-aligned outside groups “have budgeted approximately $190 million to protect McConnell’s most endangered incumbents:” Sens. Collins, Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), McSally and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Sens. Ernst and David Perdue (R-Ga.), if necessary, The Washington Examiner’s David Drucker reported.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Imagine Bernie now with 100 percent blood flow,” Sanders adviser Jeff Weaver on his expected return to the trail to POLITICO.

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