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POLITICS BRIEFING

By John Ibbitson (@JohnIbbitson)

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The better Donald Trump does, the more Justin Trudeau has to bite his tongue. With the New York businessman expected to enjoy a huge victory in Florida tonight – part of a Second Super Tuesday set of primaries – Canada's Prime Minister obviously feels that he has no choice but to make nice.

But only a few short months ago Mr. Trudeau was howling against the possibility of a Trump presidency. Most Canadians would probably prefer it if he howled again.

During last week's Washington visit, the Prime Minister conspicuously refused the bait offered by journalists asking for his thoughts on Mr. Trump, saying only: "I have tremendous confidence in the American people and look forward to working with whomever they choose to send to this White House later this year."

Commendable discretion. After all, despite his many offensive comments on Mexicans, Muslims, women, people with disabilities and on and on, Mr. Trump is looking very strong as everyone waits for tonight's results. Capturing winner-take-all Florida's 99 delegates – as he is expected to do – and/or Ohio's 66 – a more uncertain outcome – would greatly increase Mr. Trump's chances of becoming the Republican presidential nominee.

Realpolitik dictates that Mr. Trudeau gird himself for the possibility of dealing with a President Trump. But he will not welcome that possibility, as he acknowledged at a town hall back in December, when asked about the reality TV star.

After saying he didn't want to interfere in the American election, he proceeded to do just that. "I stand firmly against the politics of division, the politics of fear, the politics of intolerance or hateful rhetoric," Mr. Trudeau stated. "…If we allow politicians to succeed by scaring people, we don't end up any safer. Fear doesn't make us any safer, it makes us weaker." And he concluded: "Painting [the Islamic State] and others with a broad brush that extends to all Muslims is not just ignorant, it's irresponsible." The headlines on both sides of the border understandably blared: "Justin Trudeau takes on Donald Trump;" "Trudeau slams Trump's 'irresponsible' Muslim comments," and "Trudeau calls Trump's rhetoric on Muslims ignorant."

By March, with Mr. Trump now dominating the Republican race and Mr. Trudeau about to head to Washington, the Prime Minister had cooled his rhetorical jets. "I'm not going to pick a fight with Donald Trump right now. I'm not going to support him either, obviously," was as far as he would go at another town hall. And by the time he reached Washington, even that degree of candour had been air brushed out of Mr. Trudeau's responses.

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That may be unfortunate. Most Canadians are doubtless appalled by the possibility of a President Trump. The American media appear besotted by our new, northern Camelot. Friends warn friends against making a terrible mistake. Perhaps Mr. Trudeau should speak his mind and damn the consequences.

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW TODAY

By Chris Hannay (@channay)

> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will announce plans on Wednesday for when Canada will seek a seat on the United Nations Security Council, CBC is reporting.

> Interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose says the Prime Minister was too congenial with President Barack Obama during last week's Washington visit. "Yes there was a big party and it was very nice and there was a lot of people who enjoyed it," she said. "But there wasn't anything concrete that came out of (the visit). We'll wait and see and hope there will be opportunity for Mr. Trudeau to use the relationship he has with Obama to press for opportunities for Canadians. Canadians need to get benefits from this relationship."

> A group of Quebec New Democrats is calling for party renewal as leader Tom Mulcair prepares to face a leadership review.

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> The Liberal government is moving to make it easier for international students at Canadian postsecondary institutions to become permanent residents.

> An internal report from Public Services and Procurement Canada indicates contractors have overcharged the federal government tens of millions of dollars.

> And federal prison authorities are under criminal investigation for using a surveillance device called a "cellular grabber" in a penitentiary.

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WHAT EVERYONE'S TALKING ABOUT

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"Justin Trudeau should savour the moment while it lasts. A year from now, Mr. Obama will be working on his library and someone else will be in the White House – God only knows who. The reality is that the progressive movement is in crisis around the world. Things aren't looking all that sunny back home, either." – Margaret Wente.

Nik Nanos (Globe and Mail): "Canadians should take note because regardless of the spring thaw in Canada-U.S. relations as witnessed by the recent visit by Mr. Trudeau, an America politically tearing itself apart is not good for Canada." (for subscribers)

Lawrence Martin (Globe and Mail): "While there probably isn't much cross-border spillover from the Grand Old Party's madness, it hardly helps the conservative brand. For Canadian Tories, it would be best if the Republican Party just went away."

Andrew Coyne (National Post): "We have to be open to the possibility that Trump's support is not capable of simple cause-and-effect explanation. It may indeed have no rational explanation whatever. "

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