WI-7 Special Election Primary Preview

Tomorrow, Wisconsin is holding its Spring Primary election. The major races at stake are the special primary for the congressional WI-7 and the California Rules Top Two primaries for Milwaukee’s Mayor and County Executive. Polls close at 9p ET and we will be liveblogging.

WI-7 (R): Of greatest national interest is the primary for the WI-7 special, triggered by Rep. Sean Duffy’s (R) abrupt resignation to cash out and support his large family, including a new child with special needs. WI-7 is an R+8 seat roughly covering the northwest quarter of the state, and is among the nation’s most rural Congressional seats. Wausau is about the only major city in the district, with the remainder being a large swath of rural territory in the state’s northwest. The seat also includes most of the few Twin Cities exurbs that bleed across the state line and the small city of Superior, across the harbor from Duluth. The labor heritage in this region made it swingy to even slightly Dem-leaning for much of the 20th century, and it was held by longtime Rep. Dave Obey (D) for over 40 years before his 2010 retirement. However, in the last decade, the seat has stampeded to the right, a trend Trump has only accelerated.

Tom Tiffany

State Sen. Tom Tiffany (R) has represented a rural seat around Rhinelander in the legislature for a decade. Tiffany is well-liked in the state GOP establishment and boasts endorsements from Duffy, ex-Govs. Scott Walker (R) and Tommy Thompson (R), and the Chamber of Commerce. He is an establishment-friendly ideological conservative with a focus on fiscal conservative issues, very much in the Walker mold. Tiffany has been considered a significant driver of the conservative agenda in Madison over the last decade and has fundraised very well with total hauls of over $700K.

Jason Church

Veteran and Sen. Ron Johnson (R) staffer Jason Church (R) is a double-amputee who lost both his legs to an IED blast in Afghanistan. The 31-year old Church has been pegged as a rising star and has a number of significant national endorsements; veterans in the GOP congressional caucus have been highly supportive, though surprisingly Johnson has not given Church his official backing. Church also fundraised very well with total hauls just short of Tiffany’s. He is running as a mainstream establishment conservative, with his main point of differentiation from Tiffany being his military service and outsider profile.

Tricia Zunker

Overall, Tiffany seems a very slight favorite over Church, but the race is highly competitive and an upset is possible. Wausau school board president Tricia Zunker (D) is the likely Dem nominee. Zunker is an attorney and professor of Native American heritage who also serves as an elected tribal judge. She is running as an establishment liberal and has had mediocre to poor fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign. Zunker’s primary rival, 2014 Green Party nominee Lawrence Dale (D), has not fundraised and is unlikely to be much of a factor barring something unexpected.

As for the May special general, Republicans seem strong, but not quite prohibitive favorites to hold the seat. This seat is red-leaning and only getting redder in the Trump era, but Zunker is a credible candidate who could capitalize on an error by the GOP nominee. RRH Elections currently rates this special election as Likely R.

There are also a pair of local elections in Wisconsin this week in a California Rules Top Two format, for Mayor and County Executive in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee-Mayor: Milwaukee has a population of 595K, which breaks down as roughly 40% Black, 35% White, and 20% Hispanic. Milwaukee has five major socioeconomic regions. Around downtown and along the lakefront (especially to the north of downtown, but also in smaller areas to the south) is an upscale hipster and limousine liberal area – basically Chicago Lakefront Liberals priced out of Chicago. Much of the northern half of the city is Black-majority, with very poor areas near downtown (which habitually rank as some of the nation’s worst pockets of urban poverty) and middle-class Black suburban areas at the city’s far-flung northwest tip. The inner southern part of the city is a Hispanic-majority area, generally poor, with some pockets of both lower-middle-class White-ethnics and hipsters. Finally, the city’s southern and western edges, which comprise four fingers protruding south, west-southwest, west, and west-northwest, are lower-middle class White-ethnic inner suburban areas that are politically swingy. All groups except the last are heavily Democratic, and Milwaukee has a PVI of D+29. Four candidates are facing off.

Incumbent Tom Barrett (D) is seeking a fifth term. Barrett is a longtime pol who served in Congress in the 90s before an unsuccessful 2002 run for Governor, and then bouncing back to become Mayor a year and a half later. Barrett is an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies. His tenure as Mayor has been regarded as moderately successful; he has made few enemies, but has generally not had major accomplishments either. His biggest controversies have been his championing of a new streetcar project which critics have considered a wasteful boondoggle, and persistent issues with crime in the city’s poorest neighborhoods. However, Barrett still seems at least moderately popular in the city, particularly with high-turnout White liberals, and is well-funded with a warchest in the high 6-figures.

Councilman Tony Zielinski (D) is a longtime pol. He has represented a district on the lakefront south side straddling the city’s upscale liberal, Hispanic, and middle-class suburban socioeconomic regions for 16 years, and previously served 16 years on the county commission before that. Zielinski is running as a moderate-liberal populist; notably, he has the endorsements of both the police and fire unions. Zielinski has amassed a large warchest for this race, with his hauls of over $500K coming close to Barrett’s.

State Sen. Lena Taylor (D) has represented the middle-class Black neighborhoods of the city’s outer North side in the legislature for 18 years. She is running on a far-left platform, with her key policy plank being an outright cut in spending on policing, and is known as a fiery speaker. However, Taylor does have some surprisingly syncretic elements of her political philosophy, finding common ground with GOP majorities in the legislature on some school choice and second amendment issues. Taylor’s campaign has been underfunded, but she does have strong appeal in the city’s black community.

The fourth candidate, engineer Paul Rasky (I), a center-right Indie who previously served as a staffer to Zielinski, is little-known and seems unlikely to be a major factor. Overall, Barrett seems a strong favorite for the first spot due to his incumbency, White liberal base and decent appeal with minority communities. This race seems much like a replay of the 2016 contest, where Barrett faced a White moderate and a Black liberal in the first round. Zielinski’s better-funded campaign probably means he is more likely than Taylor to move on to the second round, but if Taylor can coalesce the Black vote, she could move on instead. Either will likely face a tough challenge in the second round in April. Trying to build an anti-Barrett coalition from both ideological sides, of both White moderates and minority liberals, seems a difficult task for either, though perhaps not quite an insurmountable one. Thus, Barrett overall seems a strong favorite for re-election.

Milwaukee, WI-CE: Milwaukee County, which has a population of 950K, includes the city of Milwaukee and essentially all its first-ring suburbs. In addition to the city of Milwaukee as described above, it includes upscale limousine liberal suburbs to the northeast and swingy to GOP-leaning middle- to lower-middle-class suburbs to the south and west. It has a PVI of D+17. The seat is open as incumbent Chris Abele (D), an iconoclastic pol who veered from mainstream liberal to DINO – and then back – over his decade in office, is retiring, and four candidates are vying to succeed him.

State Sen. and 2016 candidate Chris Larson (D) is making a second bid after losing his insurgent challenge to Abele from the left four years ago. Larson has represented downtown Milwaukee, the upscale lakefront areas, and its middle-class southeastern suburbs for a decade, rising to become Senate Democratic leader. Larson is probably best characterized as an establishment-friendly bold progressive on both fiscal and cultural issues.

County commissioner Theo Lipscomb (D) has represented the upscale liberal suburbs of the county’s northeast lakefront for twelve years, being elected by his colleagues as chair of the commission. Lipscomb generally straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive. He has picked up a significant endorsement from Rep. Gwen Moore (D), who represents the majority of the county. Lipscomb brought a gun to a knife fight in this race in a way that seems to have worked, as he successfully got two of his most prominent rivals disqualified from the ballot over signature-gathering issues.

State Rep. David Crowley (D) has represented a poor, majority-Black seat on the north side of Milwaukee City for two terms. He seems to be running as an Obamaesque aspirational mainstream liberal, and could benefit by being the only Black candidate in the race. However, his fundraising for this race has been mediocre.

Nonprofit exec Purnima Nath (R) is the only right-of-center candidate in the race. Nath is an Indian immigrant who runs a local Indian-heritage festival. She is generally running as a moderate with a focus on fiscal conservative issues, but her prior social media posts suggest much stronger antiestablishment conservative proclivities, and some dabbling in conspiracy theories to boot. Nath could have an outside chance to take a runoff spot if she can coalesce the GOP vote, especially since most of the Dems running are fairly liberal, but she would likely be a massive underdog in the general election.

Overall, it seems most likely that Larson and Lipscomb will advance to a competitive general election, though there is a significant chance that either Crowley or Nath could snag the second spot at Lipscomb’s expense.