Let’s fix it before it's too late.

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” — Yogi Berra

Well I’m going to do it anyway, in part because there are so many articles, reports and studies out there that say that the exact opposite to this title is already written in stone, and that those who raise this case are Luddites.

Both these assertions are simply not true and we are at risk of sleepwalking into a rather precarious situation. If we don’t start addressing the fundamentals now it will take far longer to fix.

In the world that we are rapidly creating, we are going to see (and indeed, are already starting to see) more and more things that look like science fiction and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.

And drivers (taxi, truck, bus and more), call centre assistants and warehouse employees are by no means the only ones at risk.









Luddite 2.0?

But hang on, we’ve been hearing this for the past 200 years. Why is it different this time?

In the past few years, our machines have started to demonstrate skills that they have never ever had before. They can out-think humans in the most creative strategy game ever created, they can out-perform humans in recognising objects, they can even get PhD’s quicker than us and this is only the beginning.

Over the next few decades as processing power increases and costs decrease this exponential growth in ability by computers will only become more dominant. We’re creating a world where there is more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.

But this can be fantastic news.

After all, it is technological progress that has enabled the remarkable run that we’re on where output (measured by GDP) goes up, costs go down (measured by increase in disposable income) and the quality of the things we buy keeps rising.

This is abundance - exactly what we want our economic system to provide.

The other incredible thing about this rapid technological progress is that we’ll get freed from the monotonous, repetitive tasks which in turn will allow us to focus on higher level, more interesting work that the machines can’t do.

Fantastic, no more monotony, I can go home at a reasonable hour and the economy is providing me all that I could ever want for… why is this a problem again?









The Divergence

If you’re thinking like that, I would highly recommend you read Coming Apart by Charles Murray but I’ll summarise below. It’s based on America however the findings are pretty consistent across the developed world.

Imagine two typical American workers: Bill and Ted.

Ted has a university degree and is a professional. The doctors, lawyers, engineers and accountants of the world.

Bill on the other hand has no degree, left school and went straight into the job market. He does comparatively low level “blue collar” work.

If you read the above and were thinking “Fantastic, can’t wait” you are a Ted. But Ted’s need to pay attention to Bill’s cautionary tale.

In 1960, before the computer age really started, Bill and Ted were living remarkably similar lives. Both in regular full time employment and both very happy.

As we started to automate the economy the fortunes of Bill and Ted have diverged. Significantly so. Over this time frame, from 1960 to 2010, Ted has continued to hold a full time job and Bill hasn’t.

In many cases Bill has left the economy entirely no longer making enough to feed his family.

And it’s more than just lack of jobs and lack of money for Bill. This trend has had a massive knock on effect on the rest of his life, effectively removing him from society. By 2010:

Bill’s kids are 60% more likely to grow up in a single parent home;

He is 65% less likely to have a happy marriage;

He is 45% less likely to vote; and

He is significantly more likely to go to prison.

There is no happy story to tell about these social trends and there is no sign of this abating. If anything there will simply be more Ted’s slipping into Bill’s position.









So what do we do?

We are moving toward a new normal: An economy that is heavy on technology and light on labour. To address this effectively we need to rethink the playbook that has got us to this point.

I don’t know what the answer is, but I can guarantee that all we need to do to speed up this process is get politicians in the thick of it. Have them play Jeopardy against Watson, get them in a driverless car, arrange their photo-op next to a 3D printer rather than an army of factory workers. Make them see that this is real, and that this is different. Once that happens the real policy changes can begin…

But we’re still many years away from that. Until then education is going to be the only play we realistically have.

Primarily we need to stop churning out Bill’s from school. The education system has been stuck in batch processing, getting people ready for work in the style of the industrial revolution since the 19th century. Despite all of the advancements in our society, the fundamental properties of school have remained the same.

In this day and age we don’t have an ADHD epidemic so much as we have an epidemic of children fidgeting whilst being sat down, for hours on end, rote learning “knowledge” they know that can be googled.

We all need to encourage them to step outside the classroom and reengage with art, humanities, design and allow them to be creative. The Institute of Imagination is exactly the kind of establishment we need.

But that won’t help the Bill’s who are already in the economy, having already passed through the system. It is the responsibility of all employers to build a better working world. Continuous development and pushing people beyond their perceived limits needs to become the norm for workplaces.

The world is changing. It’s time we face up to it and start building the society we want to see.

I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts.

— Abraham Lincoln

These are the real facts. Let’s go build solutions.