So, as you’re probably well aware of (if you arent..), Phil Kessel is closing in on an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs before tomorrow’s opening night puck drop. The speculation is that he’ll take in and around $8 million per year over 8 years, locking him up until he’s 34 years old. People are debating whether this is the right choice.

What? This is crazy. If he’s asking for $8.5 million right now, the Leafs would win these negotiations without even negotiating. Anything now is gravy.

Lets look at prior history. Specifically, high production wingers going into their first contract with UFA years, between the ages of 25-28 in their contract years, in the salary cap era. You get the following players, with their contracts, and their adjusted contracts (cap inflation and removal of "circumvention" years after year 8)

Player Contract Contract Year Adjusted Contract Phil Kessel TO BE DETERMINED 2012/13 TO BE DETERMINED Patrick Marleau 2 years @ 6.3 M 2007/08 2 years @ 7.14 M Henrik Zetterberg 12 years @ 6.083 M 2008/09 8 years @ 8.58 M Marian Gaborik 5 years @ 7.5 M 2008/09 5 years @ 8.49 M Zach Parise 12 years @ 7.538 M 2011/12 8 years @ 9.16 M Dany Heatley 6 years @ 7.5 M 2006/07 6 years @ 9.59 M Rick Nash 8 years @ 7.8 M 2009/10 8 years @ 8.44 M Daniel Sedin 5 years @ 6.1 M 2008/09 5 years @ 6.91 M Corey Perry 8 years @ 8.625 M 2011/12 8 years @ 8.625 M Ilya Kovalchuk 15 years @ 6.67 M 2009/10 8 years @ 10.69 M

An average contract in this class comes out to 6 years @ 8.625 million. Seeing as all of them other than Gaborik and Parise signed with the teams they were with, it’s not crazy to assume that the average would be much higher with free agency shift arounds.

Here’s a comparison of their production in their contract years:

Player Contract Year Age GP G A PTS PM PIM S S% TOI Phil Kessel 2012/13 25 48 20 32 52 -3 18 161 12.4 951 Patrick Marleau 2007/08 28 78 19 29 48 9 33 185 10.3 1422 Henrik Zetterberg 2008/09 28 77 31 42 73 13 36 309 10 1531 Marian Gaborik 2008/09 26 17 13 10 23 3 2 68 19.1 340 Zach Parise 2011/12 27 82 31 38 69 -5 32 293 10.6 1762 Dany Heatley 2006/07 26 82 50 55 105 31 74 310 16.1 1725 Rick Nash 2009/10 25 76 33 34 67 -2 58 254 13 1591 Daniel Sedin 2008/09 28 82 31 51 82 24 36 285 10.9 1541 Corey Perry 2011/12 26 80 37 23 60 -7 127 277 13.4 1710 Ilya Kovalchuk 2009/10 26 76 41 44 85 10 53 290 14.1 1675

And adjusted to 82 games @ 20 minutes per game:

Player Contract Year Age GP G A PTS PM PIM S S% TOI Phil Kessel 2012/13 25 82 34 55 89 -5 31 277 12.4 1640 Patrick Marleau 2007/08 28 82 21 33 54 10 38 213 10.3 1640 Henrik Zetterberg 2008/09 28 82 33 45 78 13 38 330 10 1640 Marian Gaborik 2008/09 26 82 62 48 110 14 9 328 19.1 1640 Zach Parise 2011/12 27 82 28 35 63 -4 29 272 10.6 1640 Dany Heatley 2006/07 26 82 47 52 99 29 70 294 16.1 1640 Rick Nash 2009/10 25 82 34 35 69 -2 59 261 13 1640 Daniel Sedin 2008/09 28 82 32 54 86 25 38 303 10.9 1640 Corey Perry 2011/12 26 82 35 22 57 -6 121 265 13.4 1640 Ilya Kovalchuk 2009/10 26 82 40 43 83 9 51 283 14.1 1640

His production is right up amongst the best, only being outscored by Gaborik and his 17 game sample size, and Heatley, who who was the trigger man on one of the most stacked lines in modern hockey, rather than playing with Tyler Bozak. On top of that, this is a man who’s health has been fantastic since coming here, not missing a single game in Toronto since he hit the ice for the first time.

Simply put, Phil Kessel is in elite company for this contract negotiation scenario. He’s asking for a more than reasonable amount right off the hop, because honestly, he could easily get over 9M on July 1st. The fact he isn’t even asking for that is huge. Start celebrating.





