1. Managing Climate Variability R&D Program. Climate Kelpie http://managingclimate.gov.au/publications/improved-seasonal-forecasts-the-benefits-for-agriculture-other-sectors-and-australias-economy/

2. Australian Government Department of Agriculture Meat, wool and dairy. Australian Government http://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/meat-wool-dairy (2019).

3. Bjerknes, J. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Weather Rev. 97, 163–172 (1959).

4. Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N. & Yamagata, T. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401, 360–363 (1999).

5. Thompson, D. W. J. & Wallace, J. M. Annular mode in the extratropical circulation. Part I: month-to-month variability. J. Clim. 13, 1000–1016 (2000).

6. Hendon, H. H., Thompson, D. W. J. & Wheeler, M. C. Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. J. Clim. 20, 2452–2467 (2007).

7. Min, S.-K., Cai, W. & Whetton, P. Influence of climate variability on seasonal extremes over Australia. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 643–654 (2013).

8. Perkins, S. E., Argüeso, D. & White, C. J. Relationships between climate variability, soil moisture, and Australian heatwaves. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120, 8144–8164 (2015).

9. Hirota, I., Hirooka, T. & Shiotani, M. Upper stratospheric circulations in the two hemispheres observed by satellites. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 109, 443–454 (1983).

10. Kodera, K. & Kuroda, Y. Dynamical response to the solar cycle. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 107, 4749 (2002).

11. Waugh, D. W., Sobel, A. H. & Polvani, L. M. What is the polar vortex and how does it influence weather? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98, 37–44 (2017).

12. McIntyre, M. E. How well do we understand the dynamics of stratospheric warmings? J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn Ser. II 60, 37–65 (1982).

13. Randel, W. J. The seasonal evolution of planetary-waves in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 114, 1385–1409 (1988).

14. Hio, Y. & Yoden, S. Interannual variations of the seasonal march in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere for 1979–2002 and characterization of the unprecedented year 2002. J. Atmos. Sci. 62, 567–580 (2005).

15. Baldwin, M. P. et al. Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science 301, 636–640 (2003).

16. Charlton, A. J., O’Neill, A., Stephenson, D. B., Lahoz, W. A. & Baldwin, M. P. Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere? Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129, 3205–3224 (2003).

17. Byrne, N. J. & Shepherd, T. G. Seasonal persistence of circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere and its implications for the troposphere. J. Clim. 31, 3467–3483 (2018).

18. Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H. & Thompson, D. W. J. Seasonal evolution of stratosphere–troposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere and implications for the predictability of surface climate. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123, 12002–12016 (2018).

19. Sigmond, M., Scinocca, J. F., Kharin, V. V. & Shepherd, T. G. Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings. Nat. Geosci. 6, 98–102 (2013).

20. Baldwin, M. P. & Dunkerton, T. J. Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 104, 30937–30946 (1999).

21. Shiotani, M. & Hirota, I. Planetary wave-mean flow interaction in the stratosphere: a comparison between Northern and Southern hemispheres. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 111, 309–334 (1985).

22. Kuroda, Y. & Kodera, K. Interannual variability in the troposphere and stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere winter. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 103, 13787–13799 (1998).

23. Shiotani, M., Shimoda, N. & Hirota, I. Interannual variability of the stratospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 119, 531–546 (1993).

24. Seviour, W. J. M. et al. Skillful seasonal prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic ozone. J. Clim. 27, 7462–7474 (2014).

25. Thompson, D. W. J., Baldwin, M. P. & Solomon, S. Stratosphere–troposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 62, 708–715 (2005).

26. Thompson, D. W. J. & Solomon, S. Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296, 895–899 (2002).

27. Gillett, N. P., Kell, T. D. & Jones, P. D. Regional climate impacts of the Southern Annular Mode. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L23704 (2006).

28. Bandoro, J., Solomon, S., Donohoe, A., Thompson, D. W. J. & Santer, B. D. Influences of the Antarctic ozone hole on southern hemispheric summer climate change. J. Clim. 27, 6245–6264 (2014).

29. Kang, S. M., Polvani, L. M., Fyfe, J. C. & Sigmond, M. Impact of polar ozone depletion on subtropical precipitation. Science 332, 951–954 (2011).

30. Hendon, H. H., Lim, E.-P. & Nguyen, H. Seasonal variations of subtropical precipitation associated with the Southern Annular Mode. J. Clim. 27, 3446–3460 (2014).

31. Lim, E. P. & Hendon, H. H. Understanding the contrast of Australian springtime rainfall of 1997 and 2002 in the frame of two flavors of El Niño. J. Clim. 28, 2804–2822 (2015).

32. Dowdy, A. J. Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 57, 221–234 (2018).

33. Wilks, D. S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (Academic Press, 2006).

34. Ceppi, P. & Hartmann, D. L. On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Clim. 26, 3450–3465 (2013).

35. Quinting, J. F., Parker, T. J. & Reeder, M. J. Two synoptic routes to subtropical heat waves as illustrated in the Brisbane region of Australia. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 10700–10708 (2018).

36. L’Heureux, M. L. & Thompson, D. W. J. Observed relationships between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the extratropical zonal-mean circulation. J. Clim. 19, 276–287 (2006).

37. Zhou, T. J. & Yu, R. C. Sea-surface temperature induced variability of the Southern Annular Mode in an atmospheric general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L24206 (2004).

38. Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H. & Rashid, H. Seasonal predictability of the Southern Annular Mode due to its association with ENSO. J. Clim. 26, 8037–8054 (2013).

39. Wang, G. et al. Compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low Antarctic sea-ice in 2016. Nat. Commun. 10, 13 (2019).

40. Hudson, D. A. et al. ACCESS-S1: the new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system. J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci. 67, 132–159 (2017).

41. Shaw, T. A., Perlwitz, J., Harnik, N., Newman, P. A. & Pawson, S. The impact of stratospheric ozone changes on downward wave coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Clim. 24, 4210–4229 (2011).

42. Gillett, Z. E. et al. Evaluating the relationship between interannual variations in the Antarctic ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere surface climate in chemistry–climate models. J. Clim. 32, 3131–3151 (2019).

43. Solomon, S. et al. Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer. Science 353, 269–274 (2016).

44. Dee, D. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011).

45. Jones, D., Wang, W. & Fawcett, R. High-quality spatial climate datasets for Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J. 58, 233–248 (2009).

46. Kobayashi, S. et al. The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn Ser. II 93, 5–48 (2015).

47. Kalnay, E. et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–471 (1996).

48. Jones, D. A. & Trewin, B. C. On the relationships between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Australian land surface temperature. Int. J. Climatol. 20, 697–719 (2000).

49. Ashok, K., Behera, S. K., Rao, S. A., Weng, H. & Yamagata, T. El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 112, C11007 (2007).

50. Lim, E.-P. et al. Dynamical forecast of inter–El Niño variations of tropical SST and Australian spring rainfall. Mon. Weather Rev. 137, 3796–3810 (2009).

51. Hurrell, J. W., Hack, J. J., Shea, D., Caron, J. M. & Rosinski, J. A new sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary dataset for the community atmosphere model. J. Clim. 21, 5145–5153 (2008).