More than two-thirds of the elementary schools the Toronto District School Board plans to consider for closure or merging over the next few years due to falling enrolment are in the city’s poorer neighbourhoods — threatening upheaval for students who already face steep odds, warns a report to be released Monday by the Elementary Teachers of Toronto.

“For some of these vulnerable kids, school is the safest place they’ll be all day and they often have an incredible sense of community, but if these kids are split up and sent to schools without that support, it could derail them,” warned John Smith, president of the ETT, the largest local in the provincial teachers’ union.

The TDSB is under enormous pressure to start closing some of its 130 schools that are less than 65 per cent full, on orders from Education Minister Liz Sandals, who has demanded a three-year plan for closing schools by Friday.

The board has approved a 10-year capital plan that identifies 60 schools for possible closure across 17 under-enrolled neighbourhoods by 2021, with 31 of those schools clustered in nine neighbourhoods to be reviewed in the first three years.

Using the board’s own index for measuring a school’s socio-economic challenge — family income, parents’ education, percentage of single-parent families — the ETT’s report found 68 per cent of the 48 grade schools targeted for review by 2021 rank above the board median for high socio-economic need.

Moreover, 19 of them — or 40 per cent — are among the most needy 20 per cent of schools in the city as measured by this “Learning Opportunities Index” or LOI.

And 45 per cent of them have such high demographic need they already receive extra support through a program called Model Schools for Inner Cities, which dedicates staff and funding to build outreach into the communities. Families come to these schools for everything from doctors’ appointments to career workshops.

“Closing the schools and programs that support our most vulnerable students flies in the face of everything that the public education system stands for,” said Smith.

While few suggest the TDSB is targeting schools simply because they are in poor neighbourhoods, economist Armine Yalnizyan wonders if higher income parents can just be too intimidating for a school board to want to tackle over an unpopular school closing.

“Looking at the Star’s map of schools that are on the list, I see almost none in higher income neighbourhoods — is it because higher-income neighbourhoods are more successful at fighting closure? These are the parents who can marshall their resources quickly and who have the time to protect their interests,” she mused.

She also warned some schools may have lower enrolment because the neighbourhood has a high number of elderly, who could soon be replaced with younger families.

“You want to be careful you’re not shutting down schools you may need in five years — Chicago and Boston both made the mistake of closing schools with low enrolment, largely in black and Latino neighbourhoods, and then saw the enrolments rise.

“What you really need to look at is a map of where preschoolers are, to be able to know what lies ahead — and the 2011 census surprised everyone by showing the preschool population has not been shrinking.”

Some of these low-income TDSB schools on the hit list have high enrolments themselves. Cordella Junior Public School, for example, near Jane St. and Eglinton Ave. W., stands 11th in need of the board’s 473 elementary schools on the LOI scale — the highest need of all elementary schools on the list — and is one of the Model Schools for Inner Cities. It is 80 per cent full this year, based on the ministry’s count, and expected to hit a robust 92 per cent by 2034, yet it’s one of a group of seven west-end schools marked for review in 2017 under the board’s capital plan, because some of them are under-enrolled. Others in that cluster are;

Rockcliffe Middle School, 46th on the LOI and a Model School, is 78 per cent full this year, but expected to drop to 58 per cent by 2034;

Harwood Public School, which is 130th out of 473 on the LOI and a Model School, is 53 per cent full this year and expected to rise to just 57 per cent by 2034;

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George Syme Community School, which is 37th on the LOI and a Model School, is 60 per cent full this year, but projected to be just 63 per cent full in 2034;

Roselands Junior Public School, which is 52nd of 473 on the LOI and a Model School, is 77 per cent full this year and projected to be 103 per cent full by 2034;

Lambton Park Community School, which is 43rd on the LOI and a Model School, is 39 per cent full this year and projected to fall to 34 per cent by 2034;

Dennis Ave. Community School, which is 65th on the LOI and a Model School, is 59 per cent full this year and projected to fall to 51 per cent by 2034.

Such clusters are reviewed by staff and the community to see which of them might make sense to merge, given the uneven enrolment patterns, location, building condition, size, green space, accessibility etc.

But no matter which school or schools close in this cluster, low-income students will be affected.

Yet some clusters have fewer students living in poverty. In the downtown neighbourhood of Harbord Village, four schools are slated to be reviewed for closing or merger starting this year; Kensington Community School (25 per cent full, expected to be 26 per cent in 2034), King Edward Jr. and Sr. School (69 per cent full, expected to hit 79 per cent by 2034), Lord Lansdowne Jr. and Sr. Public School (75 per cent full now, expected to hit 112 per cent by 2034) and Ryerson Community School, which is 45th on the LOI and, unlike the others in its cluster, a Model School. It is 25 per cent full now but expected to soar to 100 per cent because of the revitalization of the Alexandra Park neighbourhood.

The teachers’ union, which represents more than 11,000 elementary teachers employed by the TDSB, also notes that 48 per cent of the elementary schools targeted also have child-care centres, at least 77 per cent house community programs and 27 per cent have parenting centres, which the ministry does not count as part of the school’s “utilization rate,” the key trigger for a school to be reviewed for closure.

“Most act as vibrant community hubs in their neighbourhoods, housing daycare facilities, parent and family centres, and general community programs and activities,” said Smith.

Sandals has demanded to see a three-year plan by Friday, so trustees have made the list public and will discuss it Tuesday at their last meeting before Sandals’ deadline.

Smith also noted that a majority of the targeted schools expect to see their enrolment grow, according to the board’s own projections, with 60 per cent more than two-thirds full in the next 20 years.

The Elementary Teachers of Toronto has prepared a closer look at each of the 48 targeted elementary schools. The information will be available Monday morning at the ETT’s website.