Now it’s clearly a top-tier race, and it’s probably ahead of Ohio (Rob Portman) and perhaps Florida (Marco Rubio).

The heart of the issue is that Richard Burr is a weak incumbent who has never been especially well known in his own state. He hasn’t started campaigning vigorously yet. I think it’s going to be tough for him to run far ahead of “generic Republican,” unlike Portman or even Rubio, who have distinct brands and are well known in their states. Even in a more neutral year, I’m not sure we should have expected Burr to win this seat by a comfortable margin — given the polarization of the North Carolina electorate. And, of course, this isn’t a neutral year.

Toni What are your thoughts on whether the Democrats can retake the Senate?

Nate This Senate situation feels very familiar to me. I feel like we saw this in 2014, when the Senate was a tossup in August and then the G.O.P. swept nearly all of the competitive races. We saw it in 2012, when the Senate was a tossup and then the Democrats swept nearly all the competitive races. We saw it in 2008, when 60 seats seemed tough for the Democrats and then they swept nearly all of the competitive races. We saw it in 2006, when it seemed really hard for the Democrats to take the Senate and then they swept nearly all of the competitive races. I could take this story line back to 2000, but I’ll stop here.

So here we are in August. The Senate looks like a tossup on paper in a lot of ways. But it seems clear that if any party is going to have the wind at its back this year, it’s going to be the Democrats. If they do, it’s really hard for me to see how the G.O.P. holds on.