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Now, here’s the map detailing changes in population in Calgary communities since 2000, the lighter communities are those with little growth or declines, hence the “doughnut of decline.”

Compare the maps, and what do you see?

I notice a few things. There is a slight correlation between the doughnut of decline, and property value, but not in the way I expected. If high property values really were forcing people to move to the ‘burbs, we’d expect to see expensive homes in the doughnut, and cheaper homes in the outskirts.

But that’s not the case. In fact, we see almost the opposite of that. It’s not a direct correlation, but homes in the doughnut communities are, with a few exceptions, actually cheaper than some of the newer suburbs. On a more macro level, the value of property seems split more into the city’s east-west divide than the doughnut.

So does this kill the idea that high doughnut property values are driving people to the ‘burbs? Hold on. It’s more complicated than that.

The reasons people choose to live in communities are varied, complex, and emotional (we’re all human, after all). On a purely financial assessment, a few readers pointed out that similarly-priced homes are not the same everywhere in the city.

Here’s a comment from Facebook that illustrates this.

There’s little doubt the expectations of home buyers is different these days. As Marsha says, many people want bigger, newer homes, and they don’t mind taking out gigantic mortgages at tiny interest rates to get them.