Looking Ahead for the Texas Longhorns: Week 2 vs LSU

[[Each week this season, I am going to do a comparison between Texas and their upcoming opponent on their ability to successfully turn drives into points and convert in various down and distance situations.]]

Texas will face LSU this Saturday (9/7) for the 17th time in program history. Texas’ all-time record against LSU is 9-7-1, with Texas winning the last matchup in 2003 against a Nick Saban coached team 35-20. You can view the winsipedia page, outlining the two teams, here.

Like Texas, LSU looked impressive in their opening season game against Georgia Southern, winning the game 55-3. Offensively, this earned LSU the 15th best offense from a points per drive standpoint, and the 8th best defense (mind you, this is just after one game). Texas clocked in at #21 offensively and #46 defensively. You can see the full tabulated results by following this link.

Yards Gained By Down

Last week, I looked at just 2018 data because there obviously was no 2019 data to go off of. This week I will present some of the 2019 data, but because Texas’ game was against LA Tech, and LSU played Georgia Southern, I am going to still present 2018 as well to give a better sense of how each team performs against higher-level opponents as well.

A Bee Swarm Plot is a plot that shows all data points grouped by category and value. In this case, each point represents one play at a specified down and distance. The color of the point indicates whether or not a first down was obtained on that particular set of downs. Blue indicates a failure to convert, yellow indicates a successful conversion.

Please click the image to view a larger version of the plot in more detail.

As you can see, much like Texas last year, when LSU got ahead of the sticks (faced 1st down and <10) they were very good, including being perfect on 1st and 5 or fewer. LSU’s swarm plot bulges outward on second down in the 6-9 yard range, however, providing an easy indication that they typically gain only a few yards on first down. Texas has a somewhat bimodal distribution (think: two humps), however there is a clear bulge at 2nd and 4, meaning that Texas more frequently saw 2nd and shorter yardage situations last year than did LSU.

Another interesting takeaway from the Bee Swarm plot of LSU in 2018 is that they were perfect on 3rd and 1 and 3rd and inches. They never once failed to convert at this down and distance. Texas faced about as many 3rd and short situations, and failed to convert on just three attempts. On 3rd and very long (>10), LSU was much less successful. They converted just 5 times out of 40 instances of 3rd and >10. Texas was 7/35 on 3rd and >10.

LSU chose to go for it on 4th down 12 times last season. In three instances, they were unsuccessful. Texas, as mentioned previously, was 12/15 on 4th. In this way, the two teams are quite similar, however Texas never attempted a 4th down longer than 4th and 6, while LSU attempted a 4th and 7, 10, and 19 and were 2/3 in such instances.

Against Georgia Southern, LSU faced 1st and 15 twice, and was unable to convert on one such instance. Much like in 2018, they were also perfect on 1st and < 10 (although all of these situations came on 1st and inches). They were also perfect at converting second down if they gained even just one yard on first. They were 1/1 on their sole fourth down attempt (4th and 1).

Texas was also perfect on 1st and < 10. On the lone instance of facing 1st and 15, they were unable to convert, although they did convert a second and 15 after taking a loss on 1st down. They were 9/15 on 3rd down (at eventually getting a 1st down), and a perfect 1/1 on their lone 4th down attempt, also at 4th and 1.

Play Selection By Down

Texas, as I discussed in the LA Tech write-up, chose to run and pass about equally on 1st down, although there was a slight bias toward rushing. On 2nd down, Texas ran the ball about 60% of the time, and then the numbers flipped on 3rd down where they passed about 60% of the time. On 4th the play selection was as close to 50/50 as you can get with an odd number, where 8 plays were passes and 7 were runs.

This year, likely because of questions at running back, Texas was passing the ball more frequently on every single down. This is observed clearly in the bar charts below.

Texas’ bar charts of play selection by down are shown below where 2018 is the left column, 2019 is the right column, and downs 1-4 are the rows.

Texas Bar Charts of Play Selection by Down

LSU’s choice to run or pass the ball was similar to what they did in 2018 with the exception of 1st down, where they decided to pass the ball more frequently than they decided to run it (21 passes vs 14 runs).

LSU Bar Charts of Play Selection by Down

Success Rate by Play Selection (and Yards/Play)

I am going to break away from 2018 stats for just a second in this discussion, and focus more on down-by-down success for LSU and Texas depending on their play calling. The first thing to note is how similar the first down play choice (and resulting success rate) is between Texas and LSU. LSU, when deciding to pass on 2nd down, was 4/8 at converting, and of their 5 failed drives, 4 occurred when they decided to pass on 2nd down.

Texas was similar on 3rd down, where they were 5/10 when deciding to pass, and 5 of their 6 failed 3rd down attempts came from attempting a pass.

Both teams decided to run the ball on their 4th and 1 attempts, and both were successful. That plot is not shown.

Some assumptions that are made here:

Under all circumstances, a set of downs is approached with the idea in mind that the team in question will be punting or attempting a field goal on 4th down. (Obviously there are cases when teams operate with the knowledge that they will be going for it on 4th and adjust the play calling accordingly, but those cases represent such a small fraction of the total, that worrying about them does not significantly influence the analysis). As such, a team is considered to have 3 plays left on a 1st down, two plays left on 2nd, and one play left on 3rd. A play recorded as a Sack is assumed to have originated as a pass play, so while it goes down in the record-book as a run, it is counted in this analysis as a pass. A QB run for positive yards is considered a rush whether it originated as a pass play with no options down field, or a draw/designed run (the reason for this is a limitation in the data. Without re-watching every play and recording it manually, I just don’t have data that tells me that information).

Now we will return to looking at 2018:

LSU really heavily favored the run in short and medium yardage situations in 2018. When they needed 5 yards per play or fewer (although at 5 it was really closer to 50/50) for a first down, they chose to run the ball more often than pass. In general, Texas is better off looking for a run play against LSU in situations like 3rd < 4, 2nd < 8, etc.

With the exception of just 5 instances in 2019, LSU also decided to run the ball in very short yardage situations (needing < 3 yards per play). LSU was much more likely to pass the ball when needing 4 yards or more per play to get a first down.

Texas actually chose to pass the ball much more frequently in shorter yardage situations (with the exception of 1 yard per play situations). Whether this trend will continue against LSU remains to be seen, however injuries and youth at running back might keep Texas passing in short yardage situations.

Field Goal Kicking

LSU field goal kicking in 2018

Oh… Oh god, no. That’s LSU’s kicking game? Call it a sure thing, because this kicker is 26/27 inside of 45 yards. Wait, what’s that? Oh he graduated? Thank god.

LSU Field Goal Kicking in 2019

Okay, we only have two kicks to go off of for LSU’s new 3-star Freshman kicker Cade York, but nonetheless, he was good in the opener against Georgia Southern. He made both attempts (from 38 and 48 yards) making him 2/2 on the season.

Texas kicker Cameron Dicker did well in his opening game, too (especially when you compare him to the LA Tech kicking game). He was 1/2 on the day, however he attempted two long field goals from 43 (made) and 49 yards (missed). Dicker is now 19/26 in his career as a Sophomore.

Conclusion

Last week, Texas was objectively the better team on paper facing a much weaker LA Tech team. Happily, we lived up to expectations and won handily enough to be able to send in backups for the first time in years.

This week, Texas (and Herman) will face one of their toughest challenges they have ever faced. On paper, LSU is the better team, and they have been much more consistent in the years leading up to this game. However, the reason they play the game is because what happens, and what we expect, on paper doesn’t always happen on the field.

Last year, LSU took an early (and sizeable) lead against Louisiana Tech, only to have them chip away in the 3rd quarter and bring the football game back within reach. Texas didn’t let that happen in their game (though it is a feeling as a Texas fan I am all too familiar with in 2018).

Last year, when Texas was going into the Sugar Bowl to face Georgia, everyone said Texas would lose badly. That didn’t happen.

Finally, Texas has put up a lot of points and won shutouts against bad teams in the past (56-0 against SJSU), and turned out to have a disappointing season. LSU’s ability to beat Georgia Southern (and Texas’ to beat LA Tech for that matter) doesn’t write the closed history on how this season is going to go. LSU looks good, Texas looks good. This is going to be a tough match-up.

I give the edge to LSU on this one. Even if we lose, though, we can still be a good team with a good season.

Hook ’em!