James R. Carroll

WASHINGTON - Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul trails former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in Virginia in a hypothetical 2016 presidential election matchup, according to the latest Roanoke College Poll.

In fact, the survey finds that a majority of Virginians would prefer Democrat Clinton over Republican Paul, by a 51 percent to 35 percent margin.

Clinton leads New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie by 10 points, 47 percent to 37 percent; and she leads Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan by a 50 percent to 37 percent margin.

The poll interviewed 630 registered voters in Virginia between Sept. 13 and 19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

No Republican or Democrat has announced a bid for the presidency yet.

Paul has said he will not make a decision until sometime early next year, but has been making regular trips to the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa and to the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire.

Virginia, with 13 Electoral College votes, used to be a reliable Republican state in presidential elections, and as recently as 2000 and 2004 went for Republican George W. Bush.

Changing demographics, especially in fast-growing northern Virginia outside Washington, cut the Democrats' way in 2008 and 2012, when Democrat Barack Obama carried Virginia.

Even so, it seems likely the state will be at least an early battleground in 2016.