TAMPA — It's a joke among some alumni: No way would I get into the University of South Florida today. Not with USF's shiny new rankings and growing clout as a college destination. Not with its rising GPA and SAT averages.

And especially not now, as the USF System begins to consolidate its Tampa, Sarasota and St. Petersburg institutions, creating one university — under one tougher admissions goal.

It comes down to this: After years of effort, USF Tampa has been deemed a preeminent university, a lucrative state honor based on hitting goals on metrics like graduation rates. As the USF System unifies, leaders want USF to stay preeminent and keep those bonus dollars flowing.

To do that, incoming fall students across all three campuses — not just Tampa anymore — need to average a strong academic profile: a 4.0 weighted high school GPA and a 1200 SAT.

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USF is aiming higher than that, a sign of its growing prestige and, for some, a cause for concern. Tougher admissions undoubtedly make it trickier for the school to ensure its diverse student body stays that way. And others wonder where the region's solid B students are supposed to turn when they don't get into USF.

But students admitted now will have ripple effects on critical metrics for years to come, and USF can't wait to make changes. Maintaining preeminence, provost Ralph Wilcox said, is a "nonnegotiable expectation."

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USF's admissions goals for next fall are just slightly lower than Florida State University's.

USF wants new freshmen across its three campuses to average a 4.1 weighted GPA and 1283 SAT or 29 ACT, targets that Tampa students have already been hitting.

That new target will be tougher at the regional campuses, which have generally been easier to get into. For instance, both last fall and this upcoming one, incoming USF St. Petersburg students averaged a 3.8 GPA and a 1208 SAT.

Now, with pressure on to maintain preeminence, USF St. Petersburg students admitted for fall 2019 will ideally average a 4.0 GPA and a 1240 SAT.

This is a bump that could disproportionately affect minority students, according to internal planning documents. USF St. Petersburg officials ran the numbers earlier this year, looking to see how the new standards would have affected current students. One test, looking at the fall 2017 class, showed that black students were twice as likely to be cut off as white students.

"I would encourage (USF leadership)… to make sure diversity goals are not lost in the journey to consolidation," said Rick Davis, leader of the local Concerned Organization for Quality Education of Black Students, at a mid-June university meeting. "We're just concerned that over time we're going to have that abate."

State Rep. Wengay Newton, D-St. Petersburg, stressed the need for access in poor neighborhoods.

"Otherwise," Newton said, "we will heed the results of not providing these opportunities for these students."

Wilcox told the Tampa Bay Times that he, too, had feared that access would suffer when USF Tampa began raising its standards. But the campus remains quite diverse, even winning awards for eliminating the achievement gap among students by race and income.

"The doubt and the cynicism I hear expressed is altogether understandable," Wilcox said. "It's easy for me to say, 'Trust us.' … What more can we do than present the data, to, I hope, put those minds at ease somewhat?"

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Consolidation takes effect in 2020. When students go to college fairs, they'll see one USF booth, not three. There will be one admissions team, with representatives from each campus. There will be one application deadline, one form, one set of scholarships. Students will identify a preferred campus, and USF will try to honor it, considering applicants as one pool.

As admissions staff make decisions, they'll consult shared principles, starting with the imperative to maintain preeminence. Other principles include enrolling a diverse class that shows "evidence of readiness to persist and complete."

USF used to admit just about anyone, which is why it had a 41 percent six-year graduation rate when president Judy Genshaft arrived in 2000. Leaders talk now of "assuring access for success," which is to say they want students who are ready.

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Admitting students who will drift through classes piling up debt is a disservice, leaders say.

If a student isn't up to par, he or she may be encouraged to start at a state college and enter USF after a couple of years through a guaranteed pathway program, such as FUSE.

"I'm not discounting that option," Rick Davis said in an interview. "But the ability to attend a state university in Florida, anywhere, should be an option that is available to all of us."

USF has other ways of providing access. Spring admits and transfer students, for instance, don't count in performance metrics, so getting in that way is less competitive.

Also, USF recruits from low-income schools, a way of building diversity, though the state forbids making admissions decisions on the basis of race or income.

And leaders at the regional campuses promise to keep providing access to local students.

Still, some remain concerned about the effect of higher standards on the regional campuses. In a mid-June consolidation meeting, USF board of trustees member Byron Shinn, also the head of the Sarasota campus board, questioned a presentation that featured flattering diversity numbers in Tampa.

"My question to you is, why didn't you show us all three campus and show the systemwide impact?" he asked. Tampa officials had shown the successes on their campus, where, Shinn noted, energy and resources had been pushed because of preeminence, but hadn't shown the breakdown in how race numbers might be affected regionally.

"We didn't tell the full story," Shinn said. "I'm just feeling like my colleagues didn't get a fair shake with the data that I've been living with and you've presented. … They need to feel the issues."

Contact Claire McNeill at (727) 893-8321 or cmcneill@tampabay.com.