The problem for Juan Guaidó and his foreign backers is how to convert assets abroad to real power inside Venezuela

Trump has hitched his wagon to regime change in Venezuela – so now what?

The day after Donald Trump took the bold step of recognising the Venezuelan opposition leader as the country’s head of state, it is unclear how the administration hopes to turn its intentions into regime change.

After Nicolás Maduro refused to give up the presidency, and the military high command stuck by him, the White House kept up the mantra that “all options are on the table”. But it was far from clear whether any of those options would succeed in transferring real power to Juan Guaidó and the opposition-led national assembly.

Military intervention does not appear to be under serious consideration at present, and US defence officials told Voice of America radio they have received no instructions for new deployments.

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The national security adviser, John Bolton, said the immediate priority was to transfer revenues from the Maduro government to Guaidó, but admitted that was “very complicated”.

“We’re looking at a lot of different things we have to do but that’s in the process,” Bolton said.

His remarks gave weight to suggestions the administration had not completely worked out what to do on day two of its ambitious gambit to change the Venezuelan regime.

Venezuelan assets can be frozen in the US and other countries supporting Guaidó, and formally transferred to the national assembly’s “interim government”. Guaidó reportedly has plans to take over control over Citgo, the US-based oil refining subsidiary of the Venezuelan state oil company.

He has appointed an ambassador to the Organisation of American States in Washington, a lawyer and former politician, Gustavo Tarre, and there are plans to name other ambassadors to friendly countries.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A demonstrator throws back a tear gas canister while clashing with Venezuelan National Guards during a protest close to one of their outposts in Caracas Photograph: Carlos García Rawlins/Reuters

The problem for Guaidó and his foreign backers is how to convert assets abroad to real power inside Venezuela, without control over armed services, the ports or the banks.

Pompeo announced that the US was ready to send $20m in humanitarian aid, adding that it would be delivered “as soon as logistically possible”. The disbursement and delivery of the assistance could be complicated by the US government shutdown, and the practical difficulties of delivering food and medicine to a territory with hostile security forces.

“You could start trying to move foreign assets and flow of incomes from the US into the hands of the interim government under Juan Guaidó, but it is far too early to know if that is feasible,” said Ivan Briscoe, the Latin America and Caribbean programme director for the International Crisis Group.

“You could set up a foreign bank accounts, but if it goes to opposition leaders without any control over coercive powers, it just increases the risks of persecution and jail,” Briscoe said.

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Meanwhile, a complete oil embargo imposed on the Maduro government would have blowback effects on the US economy.

Chet Thompson, the president of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, wrote to Trump to warn that “sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector would like harm US businesses, workers, and consumers while failing to address the very real issues in Venezuela.”

Another option would be designate Venezuela a “state sponsor of terrorism” which would lead to more sanctions and travel bans, but it would be hard to justify factually, and would be unlikely to have a serious impact on Maduro’s inner circle, who are already subject to extensive US sanctions.

Moises Rendon, associate director of the Americas programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, argued that the US administration was right to provide maximum support to the national assembly at a time of mass street protests and a last-ditch opposition effort to force a return to democracy through peaceful means.

Rendon said the Maduro regime would be vulnerable to the loss of US revenues from oil sales, and the US is one of the few customers that pays in hard currency.

“Maduro would be in dire financial circumstances. Russia doesn’t have the bandwidth to support him and China is concerned about previous loans that have not been repaid,” he said.

“There is unprecedented pressure on Maduro. He hasn’t seen domestic and international pressure synchronised against him like this.”

But Rendon added such pressure represented a high-stakes gambit. “If these measures don’t work out and if Maduro survives we could see an isolated regime like North Korea, but with oil and narco-trafficking.”

More immediately, a showdown has developed around the US embassy in Caracas. Maduro has given the diplomats and their families until Saturday afternoon to leave the country while Pompeo told them to stay put, warning of “appropriate actions to hold accountable” anyone endangering the US mission and its staff.

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It is unclear whether the administration had always intended to leave the embassy staff as potential hostages in the midst of a volatile standoff.

After top Maduro ally, Diosdado Cabello, suggested that electricity or gas supply to the embassy district could be cut off, and former US officials questioned whether the lives of diplomats and their dependents were being put at risk by an administration gamble, the state department on Thursday night, ordered all non-essential government employees out of Venezuela.

Asked about the safety of US diplomats on Thursday, Trump said only: “We’re looking at Venezuela. It’s a very sad situation,” noting how it had gone from being very rich to very poor.

Eva Golinger, a Venezuelan-American lawyer, writer, and a former adviser to Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chávez said that Trump personally had little interest in Venezuela. She said he had been persuaded to take the extraordinary action against Maduro by hawks in his administration and in Congress, in particular Republican senator and former presidential candidate Marco Rubio.

“Trump has no plans. Like everything else this has been done impulsively,” said Golinger, who wrote a book about her experiences, titled Confidante of ‘Tyrants’. “In that way he is like Maduro.”