Utah Republicans believe Sen. Mike Lee may be preparing to run for governor in 2020

Is Sen. Mike Lee laying the rhetorical groundwork for a run for governor in 2020? It sure as heck looks like it.

Within 24 hours on Friday, Lee posted 5 times on his personal FB page slamming SB54 as “unconstitutional” and “bad law.” On its face, this isn’t too suspicious. Lee filed an amicus brief supporting the Utah GOP’s appeal to the Supreme Court to overturn the law that allows candidates to gather signatures to get on the ballot.

But one of his posts seemed very curious. Lee called out Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, asking if he supports SB54.

That attempt to put Cox on the record about SB54, immediately started fueling speculation among Republicans that Lee was thinking about running for Governor in 2020. Cox is seen as the Republican front-runner for the GOP nomination and has defended the dual-path to the primary ballot as the state’s top election officer.

If Lee does run, it certainly seems like he’s setting himself up as the leading convention-only candidate in 2020. He won’t be able to gather signatures after those posts, but he shouldn’t need to. He’s beloved by GOP delegates who will likely send him to a primary. Other candidates, like Cox, Greg Hughes, Greg Miller, and Jeff Burningham would assure their place on the ballot through the signature path.

Lee did gather signatures when he ran for re-election in 2016 but did not face a primary challenger, so it didn’t matter. One prominent Republican who asked to remain anonymous said that wouldn’t matter to GOP delegates. “He’ll confess his sins to the delegates and be forgiven,” they said.

If Lee does decide to run for Governor in 2020, it would be a surprise to Washington watchers who say Lee has long expressed a desire to either be nominated for a seat on the Supreme Court or to head up a conservative think tank, much like former Sen. Jim DeMint who is now heading up the Heritage Foundation.

However, Lee running for governor does make some sense. One GOP consultant who asked we withhold his name said Lee’s animus toward Cox is well known, and he’s likely bothered by all of the attention Mitt Romney is getting even though Lee is the state’s senior Senator. They also said Lee would win the convention easily and would become an immediate front-runner.

Lee could transfer any federal funds he raised to a gubernatorial campaign. According to the latest FEC filings, Lee has a little more than $250,000 in his campaign account.

He also wouldn’t have to give up his seat in the Senate to run, as he’s not up for re-election until 2022.

Sen. Lee also signed onto a proposed Constitutional amendment imposing term limits on members of Congress. The amendment calls for a limit of three, two-year terms in the House and two, six-year terms in the Senate. By endorsing the effort, Lee paints himself into a rhetorical corner. He would have to justify running for a third term in 2022 even though he believes he should be prevented from doing so.

Lee supporters doubt he’s preparing to run for governor. Dan Hauser, a longtime Lee associate threw cold water on the idea and said the pro-SB54 postings are nothing more than him showing support for the traditional nomination system. “Sen. Lee has and will always be very supportive of the caucus/convention system.”

Something else may be at play here, though. Lee’s gubernatorial may hinge on this summer’s election for Utah GOP chairman.

It is well known that a small group of dissidents on the party’s State Central Committee, known as the “Gang of 51,” are driven by an all-encompassing hatred for the law that allows candidates to gather signatures to get on the ballot. They have kept alive a lawsuit challenging that provision, even though it nearly bankrupted the party.

Last February, this group passed a bylaw that “immediately terminates” the party membership of a candidate who gathers signatures to get on the ballot, but only in Congressional districts 1 and 2. That proposal was illegal under current state law, federal law, and may have violated the U.S. Constitution as well. Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox chose to ignore the blatantly illegal party rule change, and nothing more came of it. Republicans on the Central Committee who opposed the bylaw said it was nothing more than a cynical attempt to strengthen the party’s lawsuit against the dual path system.

Current GOP Chairman Rob Anderson, who won the 2017 election for state chair by promising to end the costly lawsuit against SB54, has been at loggerheads with this group ever since he took office. So far, he’s resisted attempts by the “Gang of 51” to undermine the signature route.

But, what happens if GOP delegates elect a new chair this year who is an opponent of SB54? Assuming the U.S. Supreme Court does not strike down SB54, there’s a real possibility there will be another attempt to kick signature gathering candidates out of the party, but make it apply only to nonfederal candidates. If a new chair is sympathetic to the “Gang of 51” and their efforts, we very well could see signature-gathering gubernatorial candidates, Cox, Hughes, and others, kicked out of the Utah Republican Party. The Central Committee hardliners are reportedly attempting to recruit Jonathan Johnson, who eschewed signature gathering in his 2016 gubernatorial loss to Gary Herbert, to run for Utah GOP Chairman this year. Given his known dislike for the signature path, he would likely support such an effort.

If that happens, mainstream Republicans expect the Utah Democratic Party and others to file suit immediately, seeking to have the Utah GOP invalidated as a “Qualified Political Party,” and possibly kicking all Republican candidates off the 2020 ballot. While that sounds dire, it’s exactly what the “Gang of 51” wants, because it gives them another bite at the legal apple in their efforts to undo SB54. The law requires political parties that want to use the traditional convention system for nominating candidates to also permit signatures. Without a signature provision, they can’t nominate through the convention.

Lee would be the ideal candidate to try this sort of gambit. If he does run in 2020, he won’t have to resign his seat in the Senate unless he wins. If the GOP wins the legal fight against SB54, then Lee will likely be the next governor of Utah. In the above scenario, he would be the GOP nominee, as the signature gathering candidates would be out, and has already won two statewide elections. It’s hard to imagine Cox or Hughes winning an independent or third-party bid, and there’s no Democrat who would have a prayer of prevailing against Lee.