The incumbent candidate is facing a prison term, but that might not stop voters in California’s 50th Congressional District from giving Rep. Duncan Hunter another two-year term in the House of Representatives.

Hunter, R-Alpine, who represents a district that stretches from San Diego County to cover about two thirds of Temecula, remains favored to win re-election in November despite this week’s news that he and wife Margaret Hunter have been indicted on charges of misusing more than $250,000 for personal expenses and lying about it on federal campaign disclosure forms. His opponent is former Obama administration Labor Department official Ammar Campa-Najjar.

The 47-page indictment doesn’t help Hunter’s prospects, but how much it hurts is an open question.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan forecaster of political races, moved Hunter’s 50th Congressional District from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican” after news of the charges broke. Another forecaster, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, ow considers the 50th “Leans Republican” instead of “Safe Republican.”

“Kind of a confusing situation and a tough race to rate,” Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s managing editor, wrote on Twitter. “Hunter’s district is even redder than even (the 15 percentage points Donald Trump won it by in 2016) would indicate. But the accusations against him are, frankly, both outrageous and easy to turn into campaign ads.”

Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor for the Cook report, wrote on Twitter that Hunter’s race “has the potential to get more competitive.”

The Hunters pled not guilty to the charges in federal court in San Diego on Thursday, Aug. 23. In a campaign statement released Wednesday, Hunter 41, said: “I am not going anywhere.”

One of the first House incumbents to endorse Trump, Hunter proclaimed his innocence and denounced the indictment as politically motivated. Three prosecutors, including two directly involved the in the case, attended a Hillary Clinton fundraiser during working hours in 2015, Hunter said.

“This is modern politics and modern media mixed in with law enforcement that has a political agenda,” Hunter, who has repaid his campaign about $60,000 and attributed his questionable campaign spending to benign mistakes, told a San Diego TV station. “That’s the new Department of Justice.”

Hunter’s attorney called on the Justice Department to recuse the prosecutors. Kelly Thornton, a spokeswoman for the U.S. attorney’s office in San Diego, said the office “reviewed and rejected Mr. Hunter’s complaints. The Secret Service requested the prosecutors’ attendance and routinely asks prosecutors to attend events involving their protectees.”

Adam Braverman, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of California, which is prosecuting the case, was appointed by U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, a Trump cabinet member and a former Republican senator. The indictment stems from an investigation that started in June 2016 following media reports and a Federal Election Commission query into Hunter’s campaign finances.

If convicted on all charges, the Hunters could theoretically be sentenced to hundreds of years in prison. In reality, the couple is looking at three to five years if convicted – Duncan Hunter would get more since he’s in a position of public trust – and two years if they plead guilty, said Jason Forge, a former assistant U.S. attorney who teaches white collar crime law at UC San Diego.

The son of former congressman Duncan Hunter and a Marine veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, the junior Hunter, who was first elected to Congress in 2008, received 47 percent of the vote in the June 5 primary.

Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official who has worked for the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, got 18 percent of the vote in fending off four other challengers for the right to take on Hunter in the Nov. 6 general election. Overall, Democrats took about 36 percent of the primary vote in the 50th.

“If we are a nation of laws, then you cannot in good conscience vote for Duncan Hunter,” Campa-Najjar told The Associated Press.

Accusations of criminality are hurdles, not barriers, to serving in Congress. Since 1980, at least 46 members of Congress have been convicted of crimes that were either committed or prosecuted while they were in office. And while most of those politicians lost their jobs because of their crimes, at least five people have been elected while under indictment.

It’s too late to take Hunter’s name off the November ballot, and California does not allow voters to write-in a candidate’s name. If Hunter is re-elected and then resigns, a special election would take place to choose someone to serve the remainder of Hunter’s term.

Another Republican and early Trump supporter, Rep. Chris Collins of New York, was indicted earlier this month on insider trading charges. Collins suspended his campaign and New York Republicans are trying to take his name off the ballot.

“It’s all a setup”

Following news of the indictment, House Speaker Paul Ryan removed Hunter, at least temporarily, from his assignments to the House Armed Serves, Transportation and Infrastructure and Education and the Workforce committees.

In an emailed statement, Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, the chairman of California’s GOP House delegation, said: “I’ve known the Hunter family for the better part of my life. For generations, they have dedicated themselves to military and public service.

“Duncan has previously admitted he’s made mistakes. Now, like any American, Duncan has a constitutional right to due process in a court of law. In addition to the legal process, Duncan is ultimately accountable to the constituents he represents who will decide his political future.”

Republican and conservative activists in Temecula are standing by Hunter, at least for now.

“Until he’s proven guilty, I’m going to go with what he said,” said Bob Kowell, president of the Murrieta Temecula Republican Assembly. “I’m sick and tired of all this insanity that they’re doing to our people – they’re going after conservatives, at least in my opinion – that I don’t believe anything the press says.”

Kowell, who does not live in Hunter’s district, added: “It’s all a setup. I have no respect for our judicial system at all. There must be some good people out there. But if there are some good people, stand up and fight for us.”

Kathleen McClelland, president of the Temecula Valley Republican Women Federated, is reserving judgment on Hunter.

“Until I know for sure, I can’t I support or don’t support him,” she said. “I’m going to figure it out for myself.”

McClelland said she believes most of her group’s members feel “a lot of shock and surprise. The other sense is the same as my feeling – let’s find out the truth and not jump to conclusions.”

Lainie Goldstein, president of the Temecula Valley Democrats, said her group, which formed in 2016, is helping Campa-Najjar’s campaign.

“I can’t even imagine people saying they’re going to vote for someone who’s indicted,” Goldstein said. “Some people, based on how they feel for Trump, might say ‘(Hunter’s) still my candidate.’”

Goldstein is convinced that on-the-fence voters will support Campa-Najjar if they hear him speak.

“We just need to get him out in front of people,” she said. “He has this fantastic ability to listen and to hear constituents.”

“Much stronger chance”

Despite being the underdog, Campa-Najjar has outraised Hunter this election cycle, taking in more than $1 million for his campaign compared to just under $855,000 for the incumbent. Also in Democrats’ favor is a fired-up base and predictions of a blue wave that could give the party control of the House in November.

Still, Hunter’s district, which includes northern and eastern San Diego County along with most of Temecula, will be tough to flip. The GOP holds a registration advantage in the CA 50, with 42 percent versus 27 percent registered as Democrats and 25 percent registered as “No Party Preference,” according to state data. Two years ago, in the presidential election, 54.6 percent of the district voters chose Trump over Hillary Clinton, the third-highest pro-Trump vote of any California congressional district.

Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College, sees hope for Campa-Najjar.

“Campa-Najjar is still the underdog, but he has a much stronger chance than he did before the indictment,” Pitney said. “He already had robust fundraising, and the indictment will draw national attention to the race, and help him raise even more.”

“The danger to Hunter is not that huge numbers of Republicans will vote for his Democratic opponent,” Pitney added. “Rather, they might stay home or skip the congressional race when they turn in their ballots.”

Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, said voters in the district “are more likely to ask how long it will be from indictment to verdict, or if Hunter will change his mind about resigning.”

“If Republican voters anticipate that there will be a special election in the near future, they may decide to continue to vote for Hunter.”

Big spenders?

The indictment accuses the Hunters of spending more than $250,000 of campaign funds between 2009 and 2016 on personal expenses. The Hunters also tried to conceal their illicit spending, prosecutors allege.

Here’s a breakdown provided by federal prosecutors in the indictment:

More than $15,000 – The amount the Hunters allegedly spent on airline tickets and hotel rooms for, among others, their children, relatives, family friends and the family’s pet rabbit.

More than $14,000 – What was allegedly spent on a family Thanksgiving vacation in Italy in 2015.

More than $11,300 – The amount of campaign funds allegedly spent at Costco.

More than $9,000 – The amount of campaign money allegedly spent on alcohol and groceries for family and friends at various supermarkets.

More than $6,500 – The amount allegedly spent in campaign funds for a Hawaiian vacation in April 2015.

Morethan $5,700 – What the couple allegedly spent in campaign funds at Wal-Mart.

More than $3,300 – The amount allegedly spent at fast-food restaurants.

More than $2,400 – What the couple is accused of spending in campaign dollars for a Las Vegas vacation in August 2011.