Romney’s Arizona obstacle

The 5-State Latino battleground survey released today by Latino Decisions includes one number that ought to worry Republicans: 18.

That’s the percentage Mitt Romney is winning among Arizona Hispanics, compared to 74 percent for President Obama. Just 8 percent are undecided.

Here’s the problem: In 2008, when John McCain captured the state by 53 to 45 percent, he held Obama to a 56-41 win among Arizona Hispanics. This time around, even if all the undecideds in this poll were to break toward Romney, Obama would still be running close to 20 percentage points ahead of his 2008 Arizona clip with Hispanics. And the Hispanic vote has grown in the past four years.

Romney’s immigration policy stance hasn’t helped him there but that doesn’t fully explain the disparity – SB 1070, the controversial state immigration law that made it to the Supreme Court, has certainly played a role in altering the environment as well.

Of the 5 battleground states polled by Latino Decisions – the others were Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia -- Arizona represented Romney’s worst performance among Hispanic voters.

While there’s still considerable skepticism about whether Obama can win there in November – the president has trailed in nearly every poll taken this year – as long as he has a landslide margin among a group that could cast around 20 percent of the vote, the state probably remains within reach.

UPDATE: This poll was conducted from June 12-21, which in polling is a long time ago. That should have been reflected in the original post.