This is for all the marbles. You’re no longer allowed to make any bad calls. If you want the best chance at claiming your league’s title or taking down the consolation bracket, your lineup decisions need to be spot on.

Recent injuries to Dalvin Cook and Chris Godwin (among many others) have elevated Mike Boone and Breshad Perriman to possible must-start plays. They are obviously worth heavy consideration as starts if they’re available, but they’re too highly ranked this week to be featured in our article. Here at FantasyPros, our featured experts like to look a little deeper and find those hidden gems that can help you reach fantasy glory while making you look like a genius to your leaguemates. In addition, they strive to keep your expectations in check for reliable players who don’t have the best matchup or situation heading into your final bout. Read on to see which players they recommend as sleeper starts and who they are skeptical about.

Import your team to My Playbook for instant Start/Sit advice >>

Q1. Who is a player outside of our top 100 flex rankings that is a deep sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?

Kenny Stills (WR – HOU) at TB

“With Will Fuller back in the lineup, it kicked Stills back into the slot and sent Keke Coutee to the inactive list. Naturally, when no one is playing him, Stills caught two touchdowns against the Titans. He saw just three targets, so that’s nothing worth getting excited about. The thing that is worth getting excited about is the matchup in the slot against the Bucs. They’ve gone through three different slot cornerbacks this year, with Sean Murphy-Bunting being the latest to enable big performances. He’s allowed 22/247/2 on 31 slot targets in his coverage, including five catches and 80 yards on six targets last week. Stills has a great matchup on his hands, but the lack of projected pass attempts is the biggest detractor, as is the fact that he’s the No. 3 target in the offense. However, if you’re looking for a desperation option with boom potential, he could be that guy.”

– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

“I’ll skip over DeAndre Washington, who should leap up the rankings with Josh Jacobs sitting. The Buccaneers have started rookie Sean Murphy-Bunting as their slot cornerback for the past four games. Three of those four opponents had a lesser slot wide receiver outproduce his stud teammate. Last week was Danny Amendola (8-102) over Kenny Golladay. Two weeks before was Dede Westbrook (5-60-1) over D.J. Chark. In Week 12, Russell Gage (8-76) topped Julio Jones. I’m not saying Kenny Stills will outscore DeAndre Hopkins. But he’s set up well to surprise in what should be a pass-leaning gameplan.”

– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)

Justin Watson (WR – TB) vs. HOU

“With Chris Godwin likely out and Mike Evans done for the season, Watson becomes an interesting play for those in deeper formats. He has 10 targets, seven catches, 76 yards, and a touchdown in his last two games. Evans and Godwin are a big reason why Jameis Winston leads the NFL in passing yards, but he also leads the league in passing attempts. The Buccaneers haven’t had a 100-yard rusher this season, so I wouldn’t expect them to lean on the run just because Winston will be without his best weapons. Houston’s focus may be on Breshad Perriman and O.J. Howard, which could mean some easy completions for Watson.”

– Chris Meaney (The Athletic)



“Justin Watson is one of my favorite deep sleepers in Week 16. The injury to Chris Godwin will allow the second-year receiver to operate as the Buccaneers’ No. 2 receiver against the Texans this week. Houston’s defense has allowed an average of 7.8 targets, 4.6 receptions, 57.4 receiving yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game to their opponents’ top wide receiver scorers over its last five. Breshad Perriman should garner more defensive attention after his Week 15 performance. Watson should be able to thrive in this matchup with Jameis Winston under center.”

– Eric Moody (FantasyData)

Tim Patrick (WR – DEN) vs. DET

“This is between Albert Wilson and Tim Patrick for me, both of whom are well outside of the top-100 flex rankings. I’ll go a little more outside the box and choose Patrick. He’s only played in five games after coming off of injured reserve, but he immediately jumped into an opportune situation with Emmanuel Sanders gone. He’s coming off a game in which he saw seven targets to play the worst fantasy defense in the league over the last three weeks (Detroit Lions). You can do worse than throwing in Patrick as a desperate flex play, especially after the influx of injuries at the receiver position.”

– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?

Julian Edelman (WR – NE) vs. BUF

“I’m choosing Edelman and it’s not even close. He’s clearly not 100 percent and he’s coming off his worst game of the season, where he only caught two passes for nine yards. His second-worst game of the season came against the Bills, who he’ll face this weekend. Buffalo’s defense has been strong all year and they should be able to keep Tom Brady in check. Brady finished 18-for-39 for 150 yards (3.8 Y/A) with zero touchdowns and an interception in his only game against Buffalo this year. Last season, Brady finished 13-for-24 for 126 yards (5.3 Y/A) and two picks at home against Buffalo. It’s not a good matchup for an offense that hasn’t looked good.”

– Chris Meaney (The Athletic)

“Julian Edelman is somewhat of a risk. He’s been battling a knee issue and he’s facing one of the best pass defenses in the Buffalo Bills — a defense that has allowed the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this year (six). Edelman did practice Tuesday, but not being at full health against the Bills is not a recipe for success.”

– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Le’Veon Bell (RB – NYJ) vs. PIT

“It’s been a rough fantasy season for anyone who drafted Bell and he hasn’t even taken advantage of the good matchups on his schedule. He has finished with just 10.7 and 10.8 PPR points over his last two games, respectively, and hasn’t finished better than RB10 in any game since Week 2. Will a matchup with his former team bring out the best in him? It’s highly unlikely considering they’re arguably the best team in the NFL at slowing down fantasy running backs. The volume that Bell gets won’t even help him all that much, as the Steelers are allowing a league-low 0.66 PPR points per opportunity. This game isn’t likely to present a whole lot of opportunity, as both of these teams rank in the bottom seven in terms of total plays per game. The craziest part about the Steelers’ defense is that no running back has totaled more than 92 total yards against them this year, and that’s despite 10 different running backs totaling at least 15 touches against them. When you combine the fact that Bell has yet to average more than 0.93 PPR points per opportunity (there are four teams who allow more than that on average) with the Steelers’ ridiculous ability to stop both the run and the pass, you have a low-upside RB3.”

– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Allen Robinson (WR – CHI) vs. KC

“Robinson is one player inside the top-40 flex rankings who is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense has allowed an average of only 7.6 targets, 4.6 receptions, 56.4 receiving yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 14 PPR fantasy points per game to top wide receiver scorers over its last five. Robinson is also catching passes from quarterback Mitch Trubisky who ranks 27th in the true passer rating metric. This quarterback rating factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes.”

– Eric Moody (FantasyData)

David Montgomery (RB – CHI) vs. KC

“Montgomery has been doing better on carry consistency since Week 8 and now faces a Chiefs defense that’s far weaker versus the run than the pass. Should be a good spot, right? Well, numbers for Sony Michel and Phillip Lindsay the past two weeks reminded us that running backs are far from automatic against Kansas City. Montgomery hasn’t scored on the ground since Week 9 and has caught just six passes over his past six games. His team ranks 26th in scoring and 30th in yards per play and they look like a strong bet to fall behind the Chiefs on Sunday — perhaps far behind. Among running backs, I’d rather play Devin Singletary, Adrian Peterson, James White, Sony Michel, Patrick Laird, and DeAndre Washington.”

– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)

Thank you to the experts for giving their sleeper starts and duds for Week 16. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter if you’re not already doing so and check out our latest podcast below for more great advice.



Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS