Turkey is biting the hand that feeds its fragile economy as concern about the nation’s current account deficit heightens.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government says that Europe can’t do without Turkey – a claim repeated by his foreign minister in a column for the U.K. Daily Telegraph on Friday. But the reality is, Turkey is overplaying its hand and needs Europe far more.

Erdoğan levelled tirades of criticism at Europe’s leaders throughout last year, including accusations of Nazi tendencies for Germany and the Netherlands. But Europe is the biggest investor in his country’s economy just when he needs the money the most.

Horrific trade figures published on Monday showed Turkey’s deficit with the rest of the world – the difference between imports and exports – more than doubling in January from a year ago to $9 billion. The figure prompted Asia Unhedged, which analyses market and economic trends, to warn that the situation had become unmanageable and to question why the lira hadn’t already tanked.

Turkey’s widening trade imbalance, exacerbated by Erdoğan’s stimulation of the economy via cheap loans and tax cuts, is the main cause of Turkey’s widening current account deficit, sucking in imported consumer goods and production materials.

The shortfall in the current account needs to be financed by inflows of foreign capital to avoid a sudden correction in the lira and an ensuing economic recession. All this comes as Erdoğan faces re-election – a win he needs to introduce a full presidential system of government approved in a disputed public referendum last year.