Analysis: With Phil Bredesen in the US Senate race, can Democrats win?

Former Gov. Phil Bredesen's decision to enter the race for the U.S. Senate seat held by incumbent Bob Corker is set to have significant ramifications for national and state politics in 2018.

Not only does Bredesen give Democrats a chance to compete for a seat held by the opposing party for more than 20 years, his candidacy could force the national GOP to divert money to a state dominated by Republicans.

The election also presents Democrats an opportunity to seize the majority in the U.S. Senate.

Locally, 2018 could provide Tennessee Democrats a perfect storm to take back a number of offices — the governorship and gains in legislature or in Congress — given the combination of President Donald Trump's sagging popularity, open seats and well-established candidates with high name recognition.

Conversely, next year's elections could deliver the final nail in the coffin for a Democratic Party that has sputtered in recent years. The party lost control of the governor's mansion and both houses of the Tennessee General Assembly in the last decade.

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In a state that overwhelmingly voted for Trump, the idea of Tennessee Republicans fighting to defend their territory once seemed unimaginable. But thanks to an unpopular and often divisive president, Corker's bombshell decision to not seek re-election and a confluence of other factors, national and state Democrats are hoping Bredesen can deliver his most important win yet.

Under the national lens

On the national level, Democrats are looking for any advantages they can get to gain control of the Senate, where Republicans have 52 of the chamber's 100 seats. Historically, the party that controls the White House suffers defeats in midterm elections, leaving Democrats optimistic about their chances next year.

Experts are keeping close tabs on a handful of states — Alabama, Arizona, Nevada and now Tennessee.

Should Democrat Doug Jones defeat Republican Roy Moore in next week's Alabama Senate special election, the GOP would suffer a serious blow and the vote could foreshadow trouble heading into 2018.

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"Maybe if everything else breaks right for them then Tennessee could be the seat that would deliver (Democrats) the majority," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

For that reason, Tennessee has suddenly been thrust into the national spotlight. While he weighed his decision, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reportedly commissioned a poll for Bredesen. As news broke that the former governor was entering the race, the National Republican Senate Committee launched an attack against Bredesen.

With Tennessee having an open Senate seat, three open U.S. House seats and no incumbent in the governor's race, national interest groups will pump money, people and advertisements into the Volunteer State.

Despite Bredesen's announcement garnering that national attention, there's disagreement among political experts on whether his entrance truly means Tennessee is up for grabs.

Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for The Cook Political Report, wrote Thursday the former Nashville mayor's candidacy gives the race toss-up status.

"For Republicans, this seat which seemed like a very safe bet at the start of the cycle is now one of its most vulnerable," Duffy wrote.

Kondik disagreed that Tennessee's Senate race is now a toss-up, saying it remains likely Republican.

"I certainly think that Bredesen turns a race that Democrats were almost certainly going to lose to one where they might have a fighting chance to win," Kondik said.

Vanderbilt political scientist John Geer said, "I think it has to be thought of as a toss-up race. There’s good reasons to think that either side could win."

Does Bredesen still have crossover appeal?

Geer said there are many unknowns about the election. But he said the potential that Bredesen and gubernatorial candidate Karl Dean, both moderate Democrats, could be on next year’s general election ballot might drive voters to the polls in ways previous elections did not.

That's because Bredesen, who recently turned 74, and Dean are likely to appeal to moderate Republicans who may be dissatisfied with their field of candidates and the president.

"Bredesen is going to appeal in a lot of ways to many of the kind of business Republicans that have long supported people like Lamar Alexander, Bob Corker and Bill Haslam," Geer said. "That is not to be underestimated because no Democrat in the state can win just on Democratic votes. You have to appeal to moderate Republicans."

In 2006, Bredesen became the last Democrat to win a statewide election, when he won all 95 counties — an almost unimaginable feat given Tennessee's current political climate.

Even though some Republicans may end up voting for Bredesen, Tom Ingram, a longtime Tennessee Republican consultant, said, "Unless they just destroy each other, whoever comes out of the Republican primary is going to be the front-runner unless things radically change."

Highlighting how serious Republicans are viewing Bredesen's candidacy, the National Republican Senate Committee came out slamming Bredesen as an "Obama-loving liberal" minutes after reports of his entry.

The state GOP sent out a statement Thursday attacking the former governor, saying his record was mired by high unemployment and taxes.

Likewise, the Republican Governors Association attacked Dean when he launched his gubernatorial bid in April.

Other candidates seeking the U.S. Senate seat include U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, former U.S. Rep. Stephen Fincher and Dr. Rolando Toyos — all Republicans — and Democrat James Mackler, an Iraq War veteran and Nashville attorney. Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke, who was considering a bid, said on social media Thursday he would support Bredesen.

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Local impact

Kondik said the gubernatorial and Senate election will be an important test for Republicans and Democrats in Tennessee.

"Is the state just totally gone for Democrats going forward here or is there a chance for some sort of rebound?" he asked rhetorically. "If they can’t compete now, when can they compete?"

Despite such high stakes, Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Mary Mancini remains as excited as ever about the state of the party heading into 2018.

"I am incredibly optimistic. What Democrats ultimately want to do is make sure that people have the opportunity to have a better life for themselves, and 2018 is giving us a rare opportunity to elect leaders across the state and send leaders to Washington that will help do just that."

Mancini said the party has taken new approaches, including hiring field organizers throughout the state who are tasked with harnessing people’s desire to get involved in politics. She said the party will continue to work to put resources in areas of the state they haven’t historically been.

To bolster the party's efforts, Mancini said, the national Democratic Party has started to help in terms of infrastructure, financing and staffing.

Although Mancini's optimism will be met with skepticism by many Republicans and political observers as the 2018 election begins to unfold, the pressure will be on Bredesen to pull off another statewide victory that would have lasting impacts on the state and national level.

Dave Boucher contributed to this report.

Reach Joel Ebert at jebert@tennessean.com or 615-772-1681 and on Twitter @joelebert29.