Six of the top seven in the betting on Corbyn’s successor are women



Chart of Betfair exchange prices from betdata.io

How will leadership hopefuls vote on the key Commons brexit moves?

With Corbyn’s announcement that he’ll step down if he fails to lead LAB to victory in the general election there’s renewed interest in the betting on who will be the successor. We could be only a few months from a contest.

Two factors stand out. Firstly there’s a widespread view within the movement, including from the boss of UNITE, that LAB needs to have a female leader and that clearly is having an impact on punters and the party. The other factor is Brexit and how those likely to be contenders use the their votes in the coming big decisions in the Commons.

An indication of how important this is was the Euro election in May, Then YouGov polling of the party membership found that just 45% had supported their party. 19% had gone for the Greens, 15% the LDs and 2% CHUK. Just 4% had voted for Farage’s Brexit party.

This suggests that the membership is pro-remain – a factor that we saw at the party conference last month when the approach to Brexit was being resolved. My guess is that even those closest to the incumbent are going to be mindful of the anti-Brexit nature of the electorate.

This could be crucial if it comes to agreeing or blocking a deal and any move on a second referendum.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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