Only one team has gone on to win an NCAA Tournament game, something Smart likely needs to do to keep the torch-and-pitchfork crowd away from his office. In fact, only three even qualified for the Dance, a concerning trend that Texas will need to buck if the Longhorn masses are to be quieted.

Texas has reasons for optimism, though, and the biggest of those is not a player: Smart hired Luke Yaklich as an assistant after John Beilein made the shocking jump to the Cavaliers, adding one of the best defensive minds in college basketball and the architect of Michigan and Illinois State’s recent brilliance on that end. Defense has never been Smart’s weakness at Texas, but with Yaklich in the fold, this could be a top 10 team on that end. Jericho Sims should finally get the minutes he deserves at the five after backing up Hayes and Mo Bamba his first two seasons, and the team obviously played well with him taking over for the NIT run. Freshman big man Will Baker is more of a finesse, skilled guy, so although he’ll certainly earn some minutes and be a scoring threat, Sims makes more sense to be the Jon Teske of Yaklich’s system. Fellow froshy Kai Jones oozes defensive potential with his bounce and endless arms, but he’s quite thin and may struggle with the Big 12’s physicality early in his career.

Another crucial part of what made Yaklich’s defenses so tough was their switchability. Matt Coleman and Courtney Ramey are two smaller guards, but so was Zavier Simpson – the key is competing on the ball and playing within the system. Sharpshooting wing Jase Febres has more size, and I’d expect to see plenty of sophomore Gerald Liddell and freshman Donovan Williams if they quickly take to the system, as they offer the kind of physical potential defensively that made players like Charles Matthews and Deontae Hawkins so effective. The mental side of defense is tougher to predict for young guys, and although Yaklich will have his guys as well-prepared as any team in the country, his scheme still requires precise rotations, maximum effort, and constant communication.

So if the problem hasn’t been defense, it obviously has to be on the other end, right? Right! Shaka’s offenses have consistently been stagnant and lacked imagination, banking far too much on simple pick-and-rolls with little to no other action happening on the court to draw the defense’s attention. Smart’s offenses consistently rank near the bottom of the entire country in play types most indicative of off-ball movement: cuts, dribble hand-offs, and shots off screens.

Coleman and Ramey are both talented players, but they were ghastly in PnR last year, ranking in the 24th and 37th percentiles, respectively, per Synergy. They rushed decisions and shots, and with the defense not worried about any weak side movement, it was easy to collapse on the young guards: