Hezbollah has gained political ground in Lebanon and consolidated Iran’s influence on the fragile state’s affairs after winning, along with its allies, a small majority in national elections.

The Shia militia-cum-political bloc’s gains came at the expense of the Sunni prime minister, Saad Hariri, whose authority was weakened by a relatively poor showing in stronghold areas.

Many of Hariri’s traditional supporters appear to have stayed at home on Sunday for the first parliamentary vote in nine years. His patron, Saudi Arabia, cut Hariri adrift in November and remained disengaged in the lead-up to the vote. It offered no immediate reaction to the result.



Hariri’s bloc, the Future Movement, lost one-third of its seats, and he blamed a “scheme” to “eliminate” it from the political process when speaking on Monday.



The Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said the party’s goals had been achieved by the ballot, which has put it in a strong position for post-election negotiations that apportion ministries and control over state institutions.



Despite pre-poll hopes that a civil society movement could break through into Lebanese politics, only one candidate was thought to have been elected.

A feminist candidate, Joumana Haddad, was contesting the result that saw her narrowly lose out on becoming a second voice in a grassroots movement that had planned to challenge a political class dominated by former civil war figures and their scions.



Hezbollah had been a dominant player in Lebanon before the election and its improved showing now comes at a time of heightened regional tensions between its patron, Iran, and arch foe, Israel, which in reaction to the result claimed there was no distinction between the party and state.



Saad Hariri blamed his Future Movement’s poor showing on a ‘scheme’ to ‘eliminate’ it from the political process. Photograph: Bilal Hussein/AP

Iran’s influence in Lebanon, through the powerful party, had been a point of growing tension for Israel and Saudi Arabia, both of which view Beirut as a pivotal cog of Tehran’s regional projection.



Under a system put in place when the civil war ended in 1990, the country’s three most powerful positions are allocated along sectarian lines: a Maronite Christian holds the presidency, a Shia Muslim is the speaker of the parliament and a Sunni gets the prime ministership.



None of the three positions are expected to change. However, Hariri, and to a lesser extent, the president, Michel Aoun, are likely to emerge weaker from the post-election carve-up of roles. Hezbollah, meanwhile, can afford to be lenient with both rivals while asserting its will on certain issues.



Hezbollah’s gains come as Donald Trump approaches a decision on whether to stay in the nuclear deal struck between his predecessor, Barack Obama, and Iran. He has set a 12 May deadline and the decision, whichever way it goes, is likely to reverberate in Lebanon as well as Syria and Iraq.



Hezbollah is proscribed as a terrorist group by the United States and its hold on Lebanese affairs has been problematic for a succession of US and European leaders.



Lebanon remains deeply indebted to international donors. It has one of the lowest rankings on the global transparency index and one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world.

Its leaders, including those in Hezbollah, have been anxious to avoid the perception that the state is subservient to the party. However, the election results coupled with hardening external views about the economic and political state of Lebanon could pose new variables in a country that can ill afford them.