Arvind Kejriwal.

CHANDIGARH: If political parties in Punjab are already in a campaign mode, findings of HuffPost-CVoter tracking polls survey released on Thursday added to the hype by suggesting a highly favourable sentiment for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), predicting 94-100 seats for the party out of a total 117. According to the survey, AAP's national convener Arvind Kejriwal is the most favoured face as chief ministerial candidate for Punjab, while Congress president Capt Amarinder Singh turns out to be the second favourite choice for the top job.

While 59% respondents wanted Kejriwal to be declared the chief ministerial candidate for Punjab, 51% said they would choose Arvind Kejriwal over Amarinder Singh. They also chose him over deputy chief minister Sukhbir Singh Badal.

Among Kejriwal, Sukhbir Badal and Captain Amarinder for CM's choice, 51% backed Kejriwal, 35% Amarinder and 7% Sukhbir.

Asked who is the best candidate for CM's post from Punjab, 37% supported Amarinder, 16% present incumbent of SAD Prakash Singh Badal (down from 18% in 2015 poll). In this section, the survey obviouslydid not give Kejriwal's name as a choice .

This is crucial as data suggests that the success of a party in the Punjab election will depend on the popularity of its leaders. Amarinder Singh has elbowed the Congress into a slightly better situation than last year, giving it a slight edge over the BJP, but is at this point no threat to AAP's surge. AAP's vote share and Kejriwal's popularity go hand-in-hand. At the same time, the Congress surge has not impacted AAP.

Conducted in February 2016, the survey shows a consolidation of favourable sentiment for AAP from the same time last year. AAP is set to bag 94-100 out of the 117 seats in the Punjab assembly, consolidating its position from 83-89 projection in a poll in April 2015 by the same agency. The poll has Congress at the second position with 8-14 seats in the assembly, down from the 12-18 seats projection last year. The SAD-BJP alliance comes in third with 6-12 seats, down from 13-19 seats last year.

Again, if the election was held today, 48% would vote for AAP, the survey said.

Reacting to the survey, AAP's state convener Sucha Singh Chhotepur said: "People of Punjab are ready to give a Delhi-like mandate to the party in Punjab in the coming 2017 Punjab Vidhan Sabha elections. The recent surveys are indicating that AAP is going to form the government with huge margin." AAP campaign incharge and Sangrur MP Bhagwant Mann said: "The enthusiasm of people at Maghi Mela Rally held at Sri Muktsar Sahib in January and the Hola Mahalla Conference at Sri Anandpur Sahib are clear indications of huge wave in favor of AAP."

Another AAP leader said: "Around 78% of respondents said they wanted a change in government, indicating a huge wave of anti-incumbency. Unemployment, drug abuse, and corruption were identified as the three main problems of Punjab," said another AAP leader.

NONE BUT KEJRIWAL

The survey points out that the party's growing popularity could be arrested if it fields anyone other than Kejriwal as its CM. Even though AAP leaders have been denying speculations that Kejriwal might bring his deputy Manish Sisodia at the helm in Delhi and take over as Punjab CM instead, the survey points out that a scenario popular among AAP supporters is one where the party elevates Sisodia and Kejriwal leads the campaign from the front as the chief ministerial candidate in Punjab.

SIDHU VIABLE OPTION

In the scenario with no Kejriwal, the poll has 10% of respondents, opting for cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu as their favourite to be the chief minister, which is lower than 14% last year. At a time when it was being prodded by rivals to declare its CM face, there had been talk of AAP bringing in Sidhu but there was never any confirmation to this effect.

DIP IN MANN'S POPULARITY

When Kejriwal was replaced by Bhagwant Mann in a question about who would be the best chief minister for Punjab, the Sangrur MP was at the third place, with only 11% of the respondents choosing him as the best candidate for CM. This showed a dip in his popularity that came down from 26% last year.

