Centrist spin still insisting Labour’s local election results this week about party not opposing Brexit – but analysis shows otherwise

Analysis

Labour centrists and their brethren in other parties continue to insist that this week’s local election results – massive losses for the Tories and a small loss for Labour – are a call for the party to push harder for a new referendum or to ‘stop Brexit’ altogether.

The fact, already shown by the SKWAWKBOX while results were still coming in, that most of Labour’s net loss in councillors was in leave-voting areas – not to mention that even election expert John Curtice sees nothing in the results to suggest a remain surge – undermines that spin.

But a more extensive analysis of Labour’s final results makes the point even more emphatically.

In twenty-two authorities, Labour lost five or more councillors. Below is a list of those authorities along with their result this week – and their vote in the 2016 referendum:

Ashfield -20 (Leave 70%) NE Derbs -17 (63%) Bolsover -14 (71%) Redcar & C -13 (66%) Middlesbrough -13 (66%) Sunderland-12 (61%) Alderdale -11 (59%) Chesterfield-10 (60%) Stockton -8 (62%) Darlington -9 (56%) Lancaster -8 (51%) Barnsley -7 (61%) Bolton -7 (58%) Derby -6 (57%) NE Lincs -6 (70%) E Yorks -6 (60%) Carlisle -6 (60%) Blackpool -6 (68%) Forest of Dean -6 (59%) Stoke -5 (69%) S Tyneside -5 (62%) Newark & S -5 (60%)

These results strongly support the analysis put forward by some Labour commentators that Labour’s losses this week were driven by leave-supporting Labour voters staying at home in protest at the continuing noise made by Labour remain MPs about a new referendum, many of them making that noise in spite of the votes of their constituencies.

The results also suggest that in cases where remain parties picked up seats from Labour – relatively few in number – it was because supporters of those parties were motivated to turn out at the same time as leave-supporting Labour voters stayed away.

As Curtice observed to Radio 4’s Today programme yesterday, he sees no evidence LibDem gains were linked to support for remain, or for a new referendum they say they want. Analysis of Labour’s results suggests the same.

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