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Wisconsin’s latest air-quality figures show counties up and down the Lake Michigan shoreline will violate tougher standards for ozone pollution in 2017.

The data — gleaned from state-managed air-monitoring equipment — are expected to prompt a new round of pollution controls, which should lead to cleaner air.

But new regulations are also expected to heap additional costs on business.

Republicans Gov. Scott Walker and Attorney General Brad Schimel have already raised objections — as has Wisconsin’s largest business group, which says manufacturers would be penalized because pollutants that form ozone sweep up the coastline from other states.

The election of Donald Trump could also have an impact on how ozone regulations by the administration of President Barack Obama will be implemented because of the president-elect’s pledge to undue costly rules affecting business.

The tougher limits come at a time when air pollution, broadly measured, has been on the decline for decades because of better pollution controls, cleaner-burning vehicles and a shift in recent years from coal to natural gas for generating electricity.

Ground-level ozone is created when heat and sunlight mix with two types of air pollutants — nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. Ozone exposure can lead to reduced lung function and also aggravate asthma and other lung diseases.

High temperatures magnify ozone problems. Despite a downward pollution trend, this year’s warm spring and summer drove up ozone levels at monitors along the shoreline.

Lakeshore counties may violate new ozone standards

A combination of higher readings and stricter limits is expected to put most lakeshore counties in a position of violating the new ozone standard.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency lowered the standard from 75 parts per billion to 70 parts per billion in 2015. The regulations are expected to go into effect in October 2017.

Environmental and health groups pushed for an even lower standard. At the time, the EPA said more than 1,000 studies showed a link between higher ozone levels and respiratory disease. It calculated the health savings a decade from now at $2.9 billion to $5.9 billion a year, outweighing projected costs.

“Health care benefits of these regulations will outweigh any marginal increase in costs,” said Tyson Cook, director of science and research for Clean Wisconsin, an environmental group.

In Wisconsin, asthma affects about 500,000 residents, including 1 in 13 children, according to the Wisconsin Department of Health Services.

The agency estimates asthma costs at more than $100 million annually.

The latest ozone report by the Department of Natural Resources shows some air monitors in Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Sheboygan, Kenosha, Manitowoc, Door and Walworth counties had three-year-average readings exceeding the new standard.

Only eastern Kenosha and Sheboygan counties now violate the current standard, which was set in 2008.

More stringent standards could mean utilities would have to change operating practices, burn less coal and install scrubbers that limit air pollution.

Manufacturers might also need to add more pollution controls, or pay other companies for pollution credits earned from shutting down or reducing emissions.

“It might be more cost effective to shut down ... and move those jobs to another part of the country,” said Lucas Vebber, director of environmental and energy policy for Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce.

Vebber pointed to a study planned for 2017 by a group of researchers on behalf of the Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium that will use aircraft to more accurately monitor pollution drift along the shoreline. The consortium is composed of states in the region that provide technical help on regional air issues.

A white paper in advance of the study said ozone concentrations in the United States are highest along coastlines. For Lake Michigan, scientists noted research dating to 1976 shows cooler lake air keeps urban emissions close to the shoreline and can be pushed north from other states by prevailing warm winds in summer.

In Sheboygan, the modeling by the consortium suggests that less than 10% of ozone comes from Wisconsin sources, while Illinois and Indiana and commercial shipping contribute two to three times the amount of pollutants that form ozone in Sheboygan.

In Milwaukee County, Bayside's three-year average for ozone was 71 parts per billion at a monitor near the lake. That is above the new limit. By comparison, at W. North Ave. Avenue and N. Martin Luther King Drive – nearly two miles inland from Lake Michigan – the count dropped to 68.

Vebber said too many monitors too close to the lake compound Wisconsin’s ozone problem.

Resistance to new ozone regulations

Since mid-year, Milwaukee-based We Energies has experimented with cleaner-burning natural gas in coal boilers at plants in Oak Creek in Milwaukee County and Pleasant Prairie in Kenosha County. The company says it’s premature to say whether the switch will be effective.

We Energies spokesman Brian Manthey said the installation of pollution controls and using more natural gas have helped lower overall emissions. “We are in a position where we have done quite a bit,” he said.

Last week, Walker in a letter asked Trump to rid the federal bureaucracy of unnecessary regulations. Walker said the ozone regulations would penalize Lake Michigan counties with inherited pollution.

DNR Secretary Cathy Stepp has also objected to the new regulations in comments filed with the EPA. In April, the state Justice Department joined a group of states in a federal lawsuit challenging the law.

Environmental groups say businesses traditionally fight air regulations, then eventually comply and the air becomes cleaner.

“It’s ironic industry is lobbying for higher levels of ozone and yet they are blaming out-of-state sources,” said Cook of Clean Wisconsin. “It’s these very regulations that could limit the amount of ozone from other states.”