2016 Crowded field dulls Rand Paul's Nevada edge Sensing weakness, Republicans are aggressively contesting the early state where Paul was thought to have an advantage.

GARDNERVILLE, Nev. — At the outset of the campaign, Nevada was thought to be Rand Paul’s western firewall, a state uniquely suited to the Kentucky senator’s self-described “libertarianish” message. Between the remnants of his father’s political organization and a caucus system that rewards passion and grassroots energy, it figured to be as good a place as any for Paul to plant his flag and pull out an early state win.

But things haven’t gone according to plan for Paul, and nowhere is that more obvious than in Nevada.


Sensing an opportunity, his rivals have geared up to compete by hiring top-notch state talent and making regular stops. And at a sold-out gathering here of 1,500 conservatives Saturday — the first-ever Basque Fry, hosted by state Attorney General Adam Laxalt — it was Ted Cruz who stole the show. Paul was notably absent, scheduled instead for a medical mission to Haiti.

At an event heavy with the state’s political class, there were few signs that Paul was missed. One reason is that there are still lingering tensions over bitter disputes between supporters of Paul’s father, former GOP Rep. Ron Paul, and the state Republican establishment. But there’s also a simpler explanation, one that has little to do with Paul or his father: the GOP field is so big this time around that, unlike in 2012, those animated by anti-establishment and anti-Washington fervor have plenty of viable options to choose from.

“I don’t know anybody who’s going to vote for him,” said Mary Burgoon, a board member of the Nevada Federation of Republican Women in Carson City. “There are a few diehards, but that’s it. Why him, when we’ve got so many others anyway?”

That feeling was prevalent among attendees of the Basque Fry, which drew four presidential candidates to a ranch an hour south of Reno and hundreds of miles north of the state’s population center of Las Vegas. They reveled in their 2016 options and especially in the candidates who delivered speeches Saturday — former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Dr. Ben Carson, neither of whom has ever held elected office, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and conservative firebrand Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who railed against Washington and squishy conservatives.

“[Paul] is in the shadow of his father,” said Adam Khan, a 24-year-old chairman of Reno’s Washoe County Republican Party. “Rand Paul was the anti-establishment guy because he was his dad’s son, but that pool is now flooded. He’s going to have to do something else besides giving a diluted version of his dad’s policies. He needs to differentiate himself.”

Where Nevada was once a feverous stronghold for Paul’s father, whose supporters ran an aggressive ground game that suspended the caucus in 2008 and overran the delegate selection process in 2012, this year the Pauls are no longer a “lone voice in the wilderness,” said Jericha Deaux, political director for the Clark County Republican Party. “I’ve seen a huge off-shot of Rand supporters who have left him for Donald Trump.”

Rand Paul’s concessions to mainstream politics — a distinct departure from the uncompromising style that ultimately relegated his father to the sidelines of national politics — have also cost him some support, though how much remains unclear.

“He’s lost some of his father’s people, and in my view, Cruz and Walker are taking them away from him,” said Ray Rocha, president of the Republican Men’s Club of Northern Nevada.

Paul’s campaign, which is “still coming together,” is not concerned, said Richard Bunce, an activist who, along with his brother Carl, coordinated Rep. Ron Paul’s Nevada operation in previous cycles, and are repeating similar roles.

“He pulls in standing-room-only crowds in Nevada, so he’s a headliner person,” Bunce said. “He isn’t going to be a part of the machine, which is what the event was, and so that was not his crowd.”

But the mere fact that Paul’s effort is still taking shape in a state that was expected to be a stronghold is itself revealing — and his rivals have taken notice. Several other presidential campaigns have already brought on staff, lined up key endorsements and started to build out field operations. Walker signaled his intentions by going to Las Vegas the day after he announced his presidential bid in Wisconsin, while Cruz has picked up the same consultants who helped deliver Laxalt’s tight 2014 win.

Jeb Bush, who spoke at a town hall rally in North Las Vegas on Wednesday, can point to endorsements from GOP Sen. Dean Heller, Rep. Mark Amodei — who spoke at the Basque Fry on Saturday — and former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki. He’s also hired Ryan Erwin, considered one of the state’s top GOP operatives.

Sen. Marco Rubio enlisted Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison to serve as his state director in May. Hutchison, a member of the Church of the Latter Day Saints, has helped Rubio make a serious play for the Mormon voting bloc in a state with a relatively high Mormon population.

“[Paul] understands our base, he understands how to get us going, but at the end of the day, he has no team,” said Joe Tuzzolino, northern Nevada director for the Rubio campaign. “He hasn’t put much together, and he’s asking people to work for free, not actually investing in them as individuals.”

Bunce insists the Paul campaign is simply holding to its bottom-up playbook, a strategy that doesn’t require high-priced talent. “We’re a grassroots organization, so we don’t require Paul to come and buy his team,” he said.

The Paul team chalked up a victory in June, when the state legislature failed to pass a bill that would have switched Nevada from a caucus system — which is more favorably inclined to well organized minority factions, like Ron Paul’s supporters in 2008 and 2012 — to a primary.

And even though some Nevadans said this weekend they had ruled out Paul, many recognize it’s a long road to February. “There’s plenty of time for change around here,” said Nick Phillips, former political director for the Clark County GOP. “But it could be interesting if people don’t pay attention.”