The Tampa Bay Rays have predominantly managed to win 90+ games in five of the last six years for one reason: their outstanding ability to develop young players despite possessing a payroll that always ranks among the bottom five teams in all of baseball. Perhaps their two shrewdest recent moves have been separate trades involving starting pitchers Matt Garza and James Shields.

Both Garza in 2011 and Shields last year were dealt for rather large packages of top prospects with only two years remaining on their current deals with Tampa Bay. This is particularly relevant now because 2012 Cy Young Award winner David Price now has two years left on his current deal, and is due to receive an even larger salary through arbitration in 2014 than the $10.1 million he received this year.

For two main reasons, it makes the most sense for the Rays to move Price this winter: 1) They simply cannot afford to pay him much more than they are paying him right now, and 2) they can maximize their return by trading him with two years left of club control, rather than one.

Given those reasons and the Rays clear willingness to part with premium talent as a means for re-tooling their farm system, it is worth considering which teams might be willing to trade for Price and to consider what they would be getting.

At first glance, this may seem trivial. Price has obviously been a very good pitcher, having posted three consecutive 4+ win seasons and just missing his fourth consecutive 200+ inning season due to a triceps strain that caused him to miss several starts earlier this year. That being said, Price is entering his age-28 season, and by looking at the pitcher aging curve below (courtesy of Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman) we can clearly see cause for concern:

The plot is a little crowded, so I’ll summarize a few key takeaways. First, we can see that fastball velocity (FBv) starts to really decay around age 28-29, usually accompanied by a big decrease in K/9. We also see that walk rate tends to increase along with the accompanied rise in FIP.

This data is handy, but obviously it only serves as a guideline and does not pertain to every pitcher. Justin Verlander and Adam Wainwright, for example, have maintained their velocity quite well even in their age-30 and age-32 seasons respectively.

Taking a look at Price, specifically, though, continues to raise some red flags:

Price has seen a decrease in velocity accompanied by the expected corresponding decline in strikeout rate. This would seem like pretty terrible news if you happen to be a fan of David Price or any of the teams certain to be linked to him at various times throughout the offseason. Fortunately the outlook is not necessarily quite so grim. By taking a look at another former Cy Young Award winner (and also one of my favorite pitchers), we can see that some pitchers are able to compensate for a decline in velocity:

Hernandez has clearly seen his velocity trending down, but he was able to set a career high in K rate this year due to increased reliance on his offspeed pitches (particularly his changeup and slider). This data suggests that Price could maintain his current level of success if he is able to rely less heavily on his fastball.

Interestingly, we have already started to see a sharp decline in Price’s four-seam fastball usage, as shown below, mostly due to increased reliance on his sinker and cutter.

The problem here is, despite this change over the last few seasons, Price has not seen any sort of corresponding increase in strikeouts (or even groundball outs, for that matter) like Hernandez has. These things begin to illustrate what some worry about with Price: that he is a guy who relies heavily on his fastball, and therefore is unlikely to age well as he continues to lose velocity.

Which teams have the prospects to assemble a trade for Price? Texas could build an appealing package around shortstop Jurickson Profar, given that the Rangers have Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler locked up in their middle infield for the foreseeable future. The Chicago Cubs certainly have the prospects to do it, with elite players like Jorge Soler, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez. St. Louis possesses one of the strongest farm systems in the game, and could tempt Tampa Bay with a package built around top prospect Oscar Taveras. Other teams like Boston, Pittsburgh and the Dodgers are less likely to get involved, but have the resources and should be considered as well.

If I were running any of those teams, however, I would take my chances trying to continue to develop my own homegrown talent, rather than pay a huge price for a pitcher who may already be in decline.