Super Tuesday 2020 Primary Preview, Part 3: California House Races

Next week is Super Tuesday in the Presidential race, but it is also both the first and biggest downballot general election primary day of the year, and we’re celebrating all week with a 4-part preview series. 5 states comprising over a quarter of the country’s population – Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas – are going to congressional and state primary polls. Poll closing times are as follows in ET: (bold means a state has regular downballot primary races in addition to the Presidential contest)

7 – VT, VA || 7:30 – NC || 8 – AL, ME, MA, OK, TN, TX || 8:30 – AR || 9 – MN|| 10 – CO, UT || 11 – CA (no results Tues night)

Part 1 covering Alabama, Arkansas, and California local races is HERE. Part 2 covering North Carolina is HERE. Today we cover California House contests, and then we wrap things up with Texas next Monday.

Flip over the fold for the full previews!

CA-1: CA-1 is an R+11 seat covering the state’s rural northeast, including the Chico and Redding metro areas.

Doug LaMalfa

Incumbent Doug LaMalfa (R) is seeking a fifth term. A former state legislator, LaMalfa has been a backbench establishment conservative with a fiscal conservative emphasis. Being in one of the state’s few consistently Republican regions, LaMalfa has not faced a particularly tough race since entering the House in 2012. However, with Democrats running out of targets in California and the seat having a sizeable Democratic base in urban areas like Chico, La Malfa has received increased notice as a target and has a credible challenger this year.

Audrey Denney

2018 nominee Audrey Denney (D) is running again after falling short to LaMalfa by a somewhat closer than expected 10 point margin two years ago. A former agriculture professor who now works in industry designing corporate training programs, Denney has fundraised very well for such a tough race; her hauls in the high 6-figures have outpaced LaMalfa by a large margin in cycle-to-date fundraising, though LaMalfa leads in current cash on hand. She is running as an establishment liberal, but is relatively vague on policy due to the conservative electorate.

There are also a non-serious Democrat and two Indies in the race, none of whom should be any threat to advance. Denney is a credible candidate and her fundraising definitely makes this race worth noting as a potential competitive contest if the year turns worse for Republicans. However, LaMalfa is a non-controversial incumbent in a district fairly strongly favoring his party, and thus likely will head to the general as a strong, but not quite prohibitive, favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

CA-3: CA-3 is a D+5 seat covering suburban and Bay Area exurban areas west of Sacramento, including Davis, Fairfield, and Vaccaville, and a broad swath of rural territory to the north around Yuba City.

John Garamendi

Incumbent John Garamendi (D) is seeking a sixth full term. A longtime pol at the state level, Garamendi bounced through a number of positions in the legislature and state row offices, punctuated by bids for Governor in 1982 and 1994 and ending with a stint as LG in the 2000s. Since entering Congress Garamendi has been a backbench establishment liberal. Originally elected to a deep-blue seat based in the East Bay, Garamendi’s seat was moved to his native northern Sacramento Valley in 2012 and became at least somewhat competitive at the Presidential level. However, though the seat has not trended left rapidly like much of California, Garamendi’s long history in local politics and establishment liberal background have allowed him to lock down the seat despite its only light-blue tint. That said, he has drawn credible challengers on a semi-regular basis, and another credible Republican is running this year.

Sean Fucht

Gospel singer Sean Fucht (R) has received considerable national buzz for his profile as a long-haired 36-year old gospel musician who is active in his evangelical megachurch. Fucht, who has also worked in business and nonprofit interests, has fundraised well for the race, with hauls of over a quarter-million. However, he has some obvious weaknesses: Fucht lives far outside the district in Redding, and his religious-infused antiestablishment conservatism seems a poor fit for the Democratic-leaning district. To reach the general with Garamendi, Fucht will first need to get past another Republican.

Tamika Hamilton

Veteran Tamika Hamilton (R) has a compelling biography of being born to a teen mother, growing up poor, and serving over a decade in the Air Force. Hamilton has had poor fundraising, barely enough to run a credible campaign, but lives in the district and is running as a more mainstream conservative. Those positives, along with her African-American heritage, helped her secure the official state GOP endorsement, which could help her upset Fucht for the second general election spot.

Overall, Fucht’s stronger fundraising likely means he is a slight favorite over Hamilton to advance with Garamendi, but Hamilton’s stronger local establishment backing could allow her to surprise. In the general, Garamendi is likely to be a strong favorite. Fucht has fundraised enough to be a credible candidate, but seems a poor fit for the seat, while Hamilton is likely not well enough funded to put the seat in play. Thus, for now, the race still seems a bit off the edge of the playing field, though it could pop onto the board if the GOP nominee gains strength down the line. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-4: CA-4 is an R+10 seat covering Sacramento’s outer northern and eastern suburbs around Roseville, the Lake Tahoe area, and a broad swath of mountains to the south around Yosemite.

Tom McClintock

Incumbent Tom McClintock (R) is seeking a seventh term. McClintock is well-known statewide as a longtime leader of the state’s ideological conservatives during a long tenure in the legislature. McClintock represented Ventura County in suburban LA in the state legislature, carpetbagging to this area to win his first race in 2008 – and to this day doesn’t live in the seat (he lives on the other side of the Sacramento metro area). McClintock’s profile has generally receded since going to DC, but he has still generally focused more on being a leader of the ideological conservative movement than tending to his district. That posture led him to be held to a closer than expected 8-point margin last year. As the suburban portion of this district has trended somewhat left, Democrats are showing interest in taking on McClintock again this year. However, to get to the general, McClintock will first need to get past an intraparty rival.

Julianne Benzel

Teacher Julianne Benzel (R) gained notability when she asked her high school history students to reconsider their plans to walk out of school to protest for gun control. That move led to her being briefly suspended from her classroom, and becoming a minor national conservative cause celeb as a result. Benzel is running as an antiestablishment conservative with paleoconservative tendencies. Benzel has fundraised enough to run a credible campaign, but her overall hauls are poor. She also has relatively little institutional support. Thus, her chances of upsetting the well-known, entrenched incumbent McClintock for the second slot seem slim.

Brynne Kennedy

Software executive Brynne Kennedy (D) is the lone Democrat in the race. Kennedy has a very compelling biography as a Yale graduate who built her own software company. She has had strong fundraising and Democratic institutional support, raising a warchest in the high six figures. Unlike the fairly progressive 2018 Democratic nominee, Kennedy is taking more care to run as a moderate liberal, with a technocratic platform that is quite moderate by California Democratic standards, which could be a positive in the still quite conservative district.

There are also two non-serious Republicans and an Independent in the race. Overall, McClintock and Kennedy seem fairly solid bets to advance barring a major lightning strike by Benzel. In the general, this seat is still decidedly conservative, which means Republicans will start with a considerable advantage. However, Kennedy appears to be a strong candidate who has fundraised well, and McClintock is a polarizing incumbent with some obvious weaknesses. Thus, while McClintock is a substantial favorite, he is not a prohibitive one by any means. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

CA-8: CA-8 is an R+9 seat covering a broad swath of rural areas along the Nevada border around Death Valley. However, the majority of the population is concentrated in the High Desert exurban LA areas around Victorville and Twentynine Palms and nearby mountain exurbs around Big Bear; it also includes some small nibbles of suburban areas in the Inland Empire. The seat is open as incumbent Paul Cook (R) is retiring.

Chris Bubser

Engineer Chris Bubser (D) is the only Democrat in the field running a serious campaign. Bubser has a compelling biography as an industrial engineer and biotech manager. She is running as an establishment liberal and has near-unanimous Democratic establishment support. Bubser has fundraised well, taking in well over a half-million. However, she could have an unusual geography problem: Bubser lives in the district, but in its sparsely-populated northern tip, 250+ miles away from essentially all the district population, which could make the logistics of campaigning unusually difficult and expensive for her.

Jay Obernolte

State Rep. Jay Obernolte (R) has served six years in the legislature representing a large chunk of the district. A Caltech-educated software engineer, Obernolte built a small video game developer. Obernolte has led the field in fundraising, though that status is almost entirely due to nearly $700K in self-funding, raising little from donors. He is running as an establishment conservative with an emphasis on fiscal issues. Obernolte has the large majority of support from the local and national GOP establishments; Cook backed him the instant he retired, and Obernolte secured an endorsement from Trump a few weeks ago. The Trump endorsement was somewhat unexpected as Obernolte is facing a Trumpesque intraparty rival.

Tim Donnelly

Ex-State Rep. and 2014 gubernatorial candidate Tim Donnelly (R) served two terms in the State House representing a large chunk of this district before an unsuccessful antiestablishment conservative run for Governor in 2014. Donnelly is a vocal antiestablishment conservative and provocateur, who was particularly known in the legislature for his staunchly anti-illegal-immigration stance. He was an active member of the “Minuteman Project” to provide volunteer border security. After losing his 2014 gubernatorial bid, Donnelly then mounted bids against Cook for this seat in both 2016 and 2018, coming in third in the 2016 primary by a narrow margin, then advancing in the 2018 primary before losing the general by 20 points. Donnelly has very high name recognition, but is polarizing even among Republicans, which led the local GOP establishment to push Trump to back Obernolte. Donnelly does have a modest amount of institutional support though, including endorsements from Sen. Rand Paul (R) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R). He has had mediocre fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign, in the low six-figures.

Jeremy Staat

Veteran and former NFL player Jeremy Staat (R) is best known as a college football teammate and close friend of Pat Tillman, the former NFL player who was killed in action after leaving the league to fight in Afghanistan. After a brief NFL career, Staat enlisted in the Marines, where he served in Iraq, and now teaches trade education at a community college. Staat is carpetbagging into the seat, as his home and roots are in Bakersfield. Though Staat received a significant amount of buzz for his bid, he has not translated that well into fundraising as his hauls have been mediocre in the low six figures. He also has relatively little institutional support. Staat straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism, and could be positioned well for voters looking for an alternative between Obernolte’s establishment and somewhat insidery nature and Donnelly’s ultra-red-meat approach.

There are also five non-serious candidates in the race, three Democrats, two Republicans, and an Independent. Overall, Bubser looks likely to take the first spot, and Obernolte looks like the front-runner for the second. However, Donnelly and even Staat could have a chance to upset Obernolte for second. An R-on-R general is also a very slight possibility if the three minor Democrats bleed a significant number of votes from Bubser; this was the only seat in the state to see Dems get shut out of the general in 2018. Assuming Bubser and a Republican advance, Republicans will start out favored in the general. However, this seat is diversifying and trending left, and it could be a realistic target for Dems in a good year or if Donnelly is nominated. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

Josh Harder

CA-10: CA-10 is a White-plurality EVEN seat basically coextensive with the Modesto metro area, stretching a stripe across the width of the Central Valley between Manteca and Turlock. It also includes the small city of Tracy, which has developed as a Bay Area supercommuter exurb.

Ted Howze

Incumbent Josh Harder (D) is seeking a second term. A 33-year old investor, Harder picked up the seat on the 2018 wave and has been a mainstream establishment liberal in his first term in Congress. Harder grew up in the seat, but lived most of his life in New York and San Francisco before carpetbagging back to run. Harder’s coastal progressive sensibilities seem a questionable fit for the fairly blue-collar district, and the seat has been pegged as a good GOP target. Three Republicans are vying to reclaim the seat.

Ex-Turlock councilman and 2018 candidate Ted Howze (R) challenged then-Rep. Jeff Denham (R) two years ago, taking nearly 15% in the primary and almost beating out Harder for second place in spite of not spending a cent on his bid. Howze’s second run for the seat has been a much more serious effort. He has raised nearly $400K from donors and self-funded nearly the same amount, for an overall warchest in the high 6 figures. He also has strong local establishment support, including endorsements from Denham and Modesto Mayor Ted Brandvold (R). A large animal veterinarian by trade, Howze was a councilman in Turlock, a city of 75K, for four years in the late 2000s. In his 2018 bid, Howze campaigned to Denham’s right, particularly on the issue of immigration, but has pivoted back toward the center for this race and is running as a mainstream establishment conservative. Howze has been hit for not living in the district full-time, as he divides his time between his Turlock home and another residence outside the district in Stockton.

Bob Elliott

San Joaquin County commissioner Bob Elliott (R) is a former career Army officer and Green Beret who later became a manager at GE. He has served eight years on the county board representing a chunk of the district’s northern section. Elliott is also running as an establishment conservative, with the differences between him and Howze on ideology being very slight. He has fundraised well with gross hauls of around $350K, though his lack of self-funding means his warchest is well short of Howze’s.

Marla Sousa-Livengood

Lobbyist Marla Sousa-Livengood (R) is the third Republican in the race. Sousa-Livengood lobbies at the state level on behalf of agricultural intersts. She is running as a moderate conservative, making her the most moderate candidate in the field. Sousa-Livengood has had mediocre fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign, and has had a modest amount of institutional support.

There are also two non-serious Democrats in the race. Overall, Howze’s strong fundraising and institutional support likely make him the favorite to advance with Harder to the general, though both of his rivals, particularly Elliott, could pull the upset and take second place. In the general, Harder’s incumbency and the bright purple nature of this seat mean that he starts as a slight favorite for a second term. However, the race will likely be highly competitive and Harder could easily lose with an unforced error or good GOP year. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

CA-12: CA-12 is a White-plurality D+37 seat covering the majority of the city of San Francisco.

Nancy Pelosi

Incumbent Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) is seeking an eighteenth full term. If you’re reading this blog, Pelosi presumably needs little introduction. The Democratic leader for the last 18 years, including 6 as Speaker, Pelosi has been known as a lifelong master of behind-the-scenes politics, and she has used that mastery as skillfully in locking down her district as she has in DC. But Pelosi’s national reputation as a vanguard of liberalism makes it easy to forget that she is relatively “moderate” by San Francisco’s ridiculously skewed standards, and this year progressives have decided to put up a surprisingly serious challenger. As Speaker, Pelosi unsurprisingly has unanimous establishment support and effectively unlimited funds.

Shahid Buttar

Attorney and 2018 candidate Shahid Buttar (D) is mounting a second bid after falling less than 1% shy of advancing to the general two years ago. Unlike his campaign two years ago, which was underfunded, Buttar has raised a half-million for his bid against Pelosi this time. A British immigrant of Pakistani descent, Buttar works at a place you might not expect, the libertarian leaning tech-policy nonprofit Electronic Frontier Foundation. Don’t let his bosses’ ideology fool you though – Buttar’s platform in this race is down the line ultra-leftism on both economic and cultural issues. Buttar has collected a surprising amount of institutional support from the area’s anti-establishment leftists, including socialist and BernieBro groups, and has an endorsement from one member of the SF Board of Supervisors. He has also received buzz for campaigning at BurningMan, the neo-hippie summer festival of San Franciscans in the Nevada desert.

Also in the race is filmmaker Agatha Bacelar (D), a 28-year old Brazillian immigrant who is running on a down-the-line far-left platform, going even to Buttar’s left. Bacelar has raised barely enough to run a credible campaign, but her funding, (anti)establishment support, and campaign infrastructure are well short of Buttar’s, so she is unlikely to be a serious threat to advance. However, Bacelar may split the left-wing anti-Pelosi vote and allow a Republican to take second.

There are also two Republicans in the race to tap the torrent of grassroots anti-Pelosi money wasted on this seat. San Francisco city GOP chairman and perennial candidate John Dennis (R) was the nominee against Pelosi in 2010, 2012, and 2014, and has the official California GOP endorsement. He has raised over a half-million. Also in the race is therapist and professional provocateur Deanna Loraine (R), the ex-girlfriend (and stalking victim) of fellow grifter-candidate Omar Navarro (R), who is running for CA-43. She has raised nearly $200K. The big question is whether the two will split the GOP vote, which is generally around 10%, and allow Buttar to advance to the general with Pelosi.

There is also a non-serious Dem in the race. Right now it seems close to a coin flip whether Buttar will take the second slot to potentially make the general competitive, or if one of the Republicans (more likely Dennis) will advance and give Pelosi a free pass. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-16: CA-16 is a Hispanic-majority D+9 seat covering the poor southern half of Fresno and rural areas to the northwest around Madera, Merced, and Los Banos.

Jim Costa

Incumbent Jim Costa (D) is seeking a ninth term. Costa has been in office almost continuously for over forty years, serving a quarter-century in the state legislature before winning the Congressional seat in 2004. In DC, Costa was initially a mainstream to slightly moderate Democrat, but has not moved left with his party over the last decade and is now considered among the most moderate Democrats in the House. Though Costa was nearly defeated by a Republican in the 2014 wave, this year his biggest challenge is coming from the left, with two other Democrats seeking to oust him. Costa has been well-funded with a seven figure warchest, and the majority of the Democratic establishment has remained in his corner in the race. However, there is a significant faction on the left that is dissatisfied with his moderate record, and those interests have backed a serious intraparty challenger.

Esmeralda Soria

Fresno councilwoman Esmeralda Soria (D) is presenting a serious challenge to Costa’s re-election bid. A former legislative staffer of Mexican heritage, she has served six years on the Fresno city council, including a rotation as council president. Soria is running to Costa’s left as an establishment liberal with some bold progressive tendencies. She has poached a sizeable minority of support from the local Dem establishment; labor groups are particularly supportive of her candidacy, and she has secured a number of endorsements from local elected officials. Soria has fundraised very well for an intraparty challenge to an incumbent, with total hauls of over $300K. Soria’s strong connections and fundraising could make her a major threat to Costa in the race, and Costa has felt the need to go negative on Soria in a recent ad. However, her path is complicated by another challenger running even further left.

Kimberly Williams

Diplomat Kimberly Williams (D) is a former history professor who spent a decade abroad with the State Department’s Foreign Service. She is running as an ultra-left-wing candidate on both fiscal and cultural issues. Williams has had poor fundraising, though she has raised barely enough to run a credible campaign. However, she has little name recognition or institutional support. Her main impact in the race is likely to peel off a few points of far-left voters from Soria.

Kevin Cookingham

Costa’s biggest asset in the race is that there is a single Republican running, retired principal Kevin Cookingham (R). Cookingham’s campaign has been poorly funded and he is probably not a real threat to flip the seat in the general with Presidential-year turnout. However, Cookingham retains unanimous GOP establishment support, which probably allows him to coalesce the vast majority of the GOP vote – though Costa has been actively courting GOP votes himself. The GOP base in this seat is substantial enough that Cookingham is probably thus all but certain to take one of the two general election spots, even if a significant number of Republicans cross over to vote for Costa.

Overall, Costa seems likely to head to a general with Cookingham in which the incumbent will be a strong favorite, especially with Williams splitting the anti-Costa Democratic vote. However, Soria is a strong enough challenger that it seems a real possibility that she could take the second spot to topple the incumbent. Either Democrat will likely be a prohibitive favorite over Cookingham in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-18: CA-18 is a D+23 seat covering the wealthy suburban heart of Silicon Valley. The seat stretches along the foothills from Atherton through Palo Alto and Sunnyvale and finishing in southern San Jose suburbs around Campbell; it also includes sparsely-populated rural mountains to the south, west of Santa Cruz.

Anna Eshoo

Longtime incumbent Anna Eshoo (D) is seeking a fifteenth term. The only member of Congress of Chaldean descent, Eshoo has had a long career mostly on the backbenches; her main national notability in recent years was as the initial contact point for Christine Ford’s Kavanaugh complaint before it was passed to Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D). Eshoo is a mainstream establishment liberal with some upscale technocratic-moderate tendencies, which places her on the moderate side of California Democrats. She has strong establishment support for this race, including the official endorsement of the state Democratic party and the lions’ share of local institutional support. Though she has previously not faced a competitive election in recent memory, Eshoo is facing a serious intraparty challenger this year.

Rishi Kumar

Saratoga councilman Rishi Kumar (D) has served six years on the council in the upscale foothill suburb of 30K. An Indian immigrant and mechanical engineer at IBM by trade, he is touting his ties to the area’s tech industry. Kumar is running on a bold progressive platform with an upscale technocratic bent – his signature proposal is to work toward implementing a hyperloop system to solve the area’s crippling housing and traffic issues. Kumar has a modest amount of institutional support from the party’s left wing, and has fundraised well with hauls of nearly a half million gross. Kumar’s campaign has seen negative headlines when he was charged with a hit-and-run last year for leaving the scene of a minor fender-bender without swapping insurance information, in what he says was a miscommunication with the other driver.

There are two Republicans in the race, neither of whom is serious, which makes handicapping this contest difficult. If the two Republicans split the vote relatively evenly, Kumar is probably more likely than not to advance to a general with Eshoo. However, if Republicans gravitate to one candidate, Kumar making the second round will be more difficult. Overall, Kumar is serious enough that him advancing with Eshoo to a potentially competitive general is probably more likely than not, but it is possible a Republican could make the second slot with Eshoo and give her a free pass in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-20: CA-20 is a barely-Hispanic-majority (but in practice White liberal dominated) D+23 seat basically coextensive with the Monterey Bay metro area, including Monterey, Salinas, and Santa Cruz, and some surrounding rural territory.

Jimmy Panetta

Incumbent Jimmy Panetta (D) is seeking a third term. Panetta is an Heir Force General who slid into this seat without substantive opposition due to being the son of ex-Rep. and Obama Defense Secretary Leon Panetta (D). The younger Panetta has been a backbench establishment liberal with some mild bold progressive tendencies in his two terms. That is a decent position for the Monterey Bay area, which has more downscale minorities and fewer upscale leftists than the San Francisco Bay area to the north, but this being California, there is some genuine room to Panetta’s left in the district.

Adam Scow

Nonprofit exec Adam Scow (D) is an executive at an environmental nonprofit with an anti-fracking emphasis. He has also been an organizer of several local environmental-protection ballot initiatives in municipalities across the district. Scow, who is Hispanic, is running as a down-the-line leftist on both economic and cultural issues. He has had poor-to-mediocre fundraising of around $100K, but has still raised enough to run a credible campaign. Scow also has a modest amount of institutional support from far-left forces in the district.

There is also a single Some Dude Republican in the race, which is problematic for Scow’s chances of advancing. Scow seems a serious enough candidate with a big enough left-wing base to take a significant vote share. However, getting the quarter or more of the vote needed to beat the Republican and make the general is a tough lift – albeit not an impossible one. Thus, Panetta is probably favored to advance with a Republican and get a free pass in the general, but there is a chance Scow could sneak into second and make the general potentially competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-21: CA-21 is a Hispanic-majority D+5 seat covering the poor southeast side of Bakersfield and a broad swath of Central Valley farming communities northwest to the southern outskirts of Fresno, including Delano, Hanford, and Kingsburg. Though the seat is overwhelmingly Hispanic by population, Hispanics here are among the nation’s lowest-turnout voters and the White population has outsized influence.

TJ Cox

Incumbent TJ Cox (D) is seeking a second term. In spite of the blue lean of the seat, Cox was considered one of the bigger upset winners of the 2018 wave. An engineer and nonprofit executive of Asian descent, Cox entered the race at the 2018 filing deadline and was initially an unheralded candidate, but a combination of the Democratic wave and ballot harvesting allowed Cox to pull a shock upset. Cox has been an establishment liberal, but his term in Congress has been more notable for a string of minor scandals around his finances and businesses. Cox was hit in the 2018 campaign for claiming a primary-home tax break in both Maryland and California, and his financial troubles have only mounted since. Three investors are suing him, claiming Cox defrauded them out of $150K through paperwork tricks in his business, and also claim that Cox continued to be involved in the company after he claimed to have divested his interest, in violation of House ethics rules. Cox has also been hit with a lien for $145K in back taxes, which he says he is paying off, and is accused of holding $58K in back wages from employees for three years at a Canadian mine he owns. In spite of that baggage, Cox has maintained strong Democratic institutional support.

David Valadao

Ex-Rep. David Valadao (R) is seeking a rematch with Cox. Valadao had appeared to lock down this district in his three terms from 2012 to 2018 before losing in one of the biggest upsets of the wave. However, his moderate record and strong campaign skills in the district led national Republicans to push for him to try for a rematch with Cox. A dairy farmer of Portugese heritage, Valadao had been considered among the most moderate members of the GOP caucus and was a consistent overperformer in the district. He has collected unanimous GOP establishment support and has been among the best fundraising House challengers nationwide, with gross hauls of over $1M.

There are also two perennial candidates in the race, one of either party, who will be eliminated in the first round. This race is likely to be one of the most competitive nationwide this year. The lean of the seat favors Cox significantly, especially in a Presidential year when the seat’s large low-turnout Hispanic population may be more energized. However, Valadao is a very strong candidate and Cox seems a fairly weak incumbent. Overall there is no clear favorite in the general, and the primary results may provide some gauge of where the race stands. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

CA-22: CA-22 is a Hispanic-plurality R+8 seat covering the middle-class northern half of Fresno and rural areas to the southeast around Dinuba and Visalia.

Devin Nunes

Incumbent Devin Nunes (R) is seeking a tenth term. As the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee, Nunes has been one of Trump’s top defenders in Congress and arguably the foremost critic of the FBI investigation into Russian electioneering. That position has made him a lightning rod and bogeyman for national liberals, but also a goldmine for his fundraising, as he is sitting on a warchest of nearly $10M. Nunes’s polarizing nature in recent years meant he was held to a surprisingly close race in 2018, winning by under 6 points amid the Democratic wave in his first seriously-contested re-election race. Nunes looks likely to once again draw a serious challenger this year, and three serious Democrats are vying to take him on.

Phil Arballo

Businessman Phil Arballo (D) is the best-funded of Nunes’s challengers, raising $1.4M. Though he is a first time candidate with no prior significant political involvement, Arballo has collected strong establishment support for this race. He has endorsements from 2018 nominee Andrew Janz (D) and most blue-collar unions, and appears to be national Democrats’ choice candidate in the race. Arballo is running as an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies.

Bobby Bliatout

2018 candidate and healthcare executive Bobby Bliatout (D) took 5% and third place in the primary for this seat two years ago. A child of Hmong immigrants, Bliatout could have a base in that community. Bliatout is running as a bold progressive on fiscal issues and an establishment to moderate liberal on cultural issues. He has trailed Arballo in fundraising, but has still been well-funded, with a quarter-million from donors and $200K in self-funding. Bliatout has attempted to make up for the funding gap by collecting the strongest support from the local establishment, including the official state party endorsement and strong support from service unions.

Dary Rezvani

Businessman Dary Rezvani (D) owns an auto body shop he inherited from his late father, and has also worked as an accountant. Rezvani is running as an establishment-friendly bold progressive, making him the most left-leaning candidate in the field. He has had good-but-not-great fundraising of a bit under a quarter-million and a modest amount of establishment support, but trails Arballo and Bliatout significantly on both of those fronts. Thus, while Rezvani may take a significant vote share from the seat’s progressive base, he seems unlikely to beat out both Arballo and Bliatlout to advance to the general.

There is also a non-serious Independent in the race. Overall, Arballo seems like a very slight favorite for the second slot to advance with Nunes due to his fundraising advantage, but Bliatout’s stronger local establishment support and official Dem party endorsement could allow him to pull the upset. In the general, this seat remains conservative-leaning and Nunes will start as the favorite for re-election. However, the seat has been trending leftward, and Nunes’s close shave last cycle suggests he could be toppled in a good Democratic year. Thus, Nunes seems a strong, but not prohibitive, favorite for re-election. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

CA-24: CA-24 is a D+7 seat essentially coextensive with the Central Coast region of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.

Salud Carbajal

Incumbent Salud Carbajal (D) is seeking a third term. A Mexican immigrant and former local official, Carbajal has been an establishment liberal in congress with some populist tendencies. Carbajal has won relatively easily over credible GOP challenges in both 2016 and 2018. The seat, heavy with Hispanic and upscale White voters, has trended left in the Trump era, but is still in the somewhat competitive range. Thus, Carbajal has once again drawn a credible Republican challenger.

Andy Caldwell

Talk radio host Andy Caldwell (R) is the only Republican in the race. Caldwell has hosted a local talk radio show in the area for a quarter century. He has also been involved with a local chamber of commerce group. In spite of his background in talk radio which might suggest strident conservatism, Caldwell is running in this race on a vague populist moderate platform. Caldwell has attracted surprisingly strong fundraising numbers for the uphill race, with gross hauls of over a half million. He also has strong institutional support from the local GOP establishment.

There is also a non-serious Indie in the race. Overall, Carbajal seems a fairly strong favorite in the general due to the medium-blue nature of the seat. However, Caldwell’s fundraising suggests he is a serious candidate who could make the race competitive if the year turns better for the GOP or if Carbajal makes an error. Thus, Carbajal seems a strong but not prohibitive favorite for re-election. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

CA-25 (LRTT Special & Regular CRTT Primary): CA-25 is a White-plurality EVEN seat covering LA’s outer northern suburbs, including most of the lower-middle-class Antelope Valley around Lancaster and Palmdale and the upper-middle-class to wealthy suburbs of Santa Clarita and Simi Valley, along with a nibble of the northwest corner of the San Fernando Valley. The seat is vacant due to the resignation of ex-Rep. Katie Hill (D) in a scandal over inappropriate sexual relationships with staffers. Importantly, there are two elections for this seat on the ballot, both the Louisiana Rules Top Two special, which will head to a May runoff in the likely event no candidate crosses 50%, and the regular California Rules Top Two primary for the full term. Both have the same five notable candidates, so the results probably shouldn’t be too different, but stranger things have happened in California’s notoriously fickle primary electorates than to have two different pairings advance for these races. Five candidates are facing off, three Republicans and two Democrats.

Mike Garcia

Defense contractor exec and veteran Mike Garcia (R) entered the race before Hill’s scandal and was initially thought a “B” list contender. However, he has proven himself by surprisingly topping the field in fundraising, with gross hauls of $1.2M aided by modest self-funding. An Annapolis graduate, Garcia served a decade as a Naval aviator before a decade as an executive at the large defense contractor Raytheon. Garcia is running as an establishment conservative with some upscale moderate tendencies, a good fit for the historically-Republican district. He has secured strong establishment support, including the county GOP’s official endorsement. However, Garcia is facing an intraparty rival with significantly better name recognition.

Steve Knight

Ex-Rep. Steve Knight (R) is seeking a comeback to the seat he lost to Hill two years ago. An Army veteran, Knight held the seat for two terms as backbench establishment conservative. However, among insiders he was mostly notable in DC for his mediocre campaign skills. In spite of his seat in the hideously expensive LA media market, and being the closest Republican House member to LA donors, Knight never fundraised well, and skated somewhat off Heir Force appeal from his late father Pete Knight (R), an astronaut and popular conservative legislator in the area in the 90s. Knight’s fundraising for this race has been in the mediocre-to-good range by national standards at around $200K gross, but that is far behind his serious rivals of both parties in the expensive district. However, Knight does have a significant minority of establishment support, including big endorsements from Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R) and State Rep. Tom Lackey (R), who represents nearly half the seat. Knight’s biggest asset in the race is name recognition though, as his high profile from his prior terms could allow him to overcome his funding deficit.

George Papadopolous

Trump aide and felon George Papadopoulos (R) is also grifting, I mean running, in this race. For those of you who (like me) couldn’t be bothered to learn the ridiculous soap-opera intrigue of the Russiagate saga, Papadopoulos is a 32-year old former mid-level Trump campaign operative who drunkenly boasted that he attempted to get information about Hillary from Russian intelligence in order to help Trump in in the 2016 election. Papadopoulos was convicted of lying to investigators and served a 2-week prison sentence in late 2018. He has no ties whatsoever to the district, as he moved to Southern California (near downtown LA, nowhere near this district) from his native Chicago just over a year ago. Papadopoulos is not particularly committed to ideological conservatism, describing himself as “socially liberal” in an interview, but his Trump connections and Trump-martyrdom could provide him a base among low-information hardcore Trumpists. His bid has had mediocre fundraising in the low six-figures and he is mostly considered non-serious by the local and national establishments. While he is probably unlikely to be a threat to take a general election spot, he could draw enough votes to be a noticeable factor and potentially increase the chances of a Dem-on-Dem runoff.

Christy Smith

State Rep. Christy Smith (D) is the Democratic establishment choice for this race. A former local school board member, Smith defeated an incumbent to pick up a historically-Republican legislative seat based around Santa Clarita and covering over half the district two years ago. As a friend of Hill’s, she was quickly endorsed by Hill immediately after her implosion, which could be somewhat questionable in the general election but likely plays well with the Democratic base. Smith has the vast majority of Democratic establishment support, including endorsements from Emily’s List, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and both of California’s Senators, and most unions. She has raised slightly more than Garcia from donors and slightly less overall with gross hauls of $1.1M. The only poll of the race was a very dated DCCC internal from two months ago, but that poll showed Smith in first place overall in the field. Smith is running as a mainstream establishment liberal, which has left some room to her left in the field.

Cenk Uygur

Left-wing journalist Cenk Uygur (D) is the host of the Young Turks show, a long-running daily progressive radio and streaming-video program. A Turkish immigrant and former attorney and local radio host, Uygur first gained major notoriety as part of the short-lived national liberal talk radio network Air America in the mid-2000s. After that network quickly folded, he kept the show going on satellite radio and expanded it, first into an online video show and then into a multimedia franchise. He has also been a political activist, co-founding the national far-left group Justice Democrats, and is running in that tradition as a far-left populist on both fiscal and cultural issues. Uygur has significant liabilities: he has no real ties to the district, living his early life on the East Coast and then residing in urban LA. He has also received significant criticism for some prior controversial and sexist statements, which led Bernie Sanders to abruptly retract his endorsement of Uygur under significant left-wing pressure. In spite of that embarrassment, which Uygur responded with a “you can’t fire me if I quit” tack by saying he would reject all endorsements for his campaign, he has fundraised very well with hauls of over $1M, and still seems to have real appeal to the left-wing base.

There are also eight non-serious candidates, three Republicans, four Democrats, and an Indie. The race seems highly unsettled between the top four candidates. CW seems to be betting on Smith and either Garcia or Knight moving on. However, Uygur taking Smith’s spot, a D-on-D general between Smith and Uygur, or even a fluke R-on-R general between Garcia and Knight are real possibilities. There is perhaps no race where there is more riding on which candidate pair advances, as Uygur and Knight are both considerably weaker candidates than Smith and Garcia. Overall, about all we an say for the moment is that there is no clear favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

CA-34: CA-34 is a Hispanic-majority D+34 seat covering central Los Angeles. The seat covers downtown and nearby urban neighborhoods, both to the northeast around Eagle Rock and the west around Koreatown.

Jimmy Gomez

Incumbent Jimmy Gomez (D) is seeking a second full term. A former legislator who represented most of the district for five years before his 2017 special election win, Gomez is a bold progressive on both economic and cultural issues, and towards the left side of the Dem caucus. However, Gomez is also on good terms with the Democratic establishment despite representing a district with a considerable ultra-left-wing base. Thus, he is facing a challenge from two candidates even further to his left.

Frances-Yasmeen Motiwalla

Nonprofit exec Frances-Yasmeen Motiwalla (D) has identity politics credibility as the openly-lesbian child of Pakistani immigrants. Motiwalla works for an anti-war left-wing nonprofit and is unsurprisingly running on a far-left platform, criticizing Gomez as too friendly with business and hawkish interests. Motiwalla has raised enough to run a credible campaign with some minor self-funding, but her overall funds are quite poor.

David Kim

The left-wing vote could also be split with elected neighborhood board member and attorney David Kim (D). Kim is also running a somewhat serious campaign based on a left-wing platform, with Universal Basic Income as a key campaign tenet. Kim has not raised enough to run a truly credible campaign, but could have a base in Koreatown, where he is elected to the neighborhood board. The Korean community in the area has been known to bloc-vote, which could get him to a general election spot.

There is also a non-serious Democrat and a Some Dude Republican in the race. The split in the far-left vote between Motiwalla and Kim probably means the Republican is more likely than not to take the second spot, but if Motiwalla or Kim advances with Gomez, there is a chance the general election could become competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-39: CA-39 is a White-plurality EVEN seat covering upscale suburban areas of northern Orange County around Fullerton and Yorba Linda, plus heavily Asian-American upscale suburbs across the hills to the north around Diamond Bar and Chino Hills.

Gil Cisneros

Incumbent Gil Cisneros (D) is seeking a second term. A former factory manager for Frito-Lay, Cisneros became wealthy by purchasing a winning 9-figure Mega Millions lottery ticket in 2010. His self-funding ability and Hispanic heritage caught the eye of Democrats looking for a candidate for this seat last cycle, and he picked up the seat narrowly on the 2018 wave. Cisneros has been an establishment liberal in his first term in Congress. This year, he is facing a rematch with his 2018 rival.

Young Kim

Ex-State Rep. and 2018 nominee Young Kim (R) is mounting a second bid for the seat after losing by under 2% to Cisneros two years ago. A Korean immigrant, Kim spent much of her career as a top aide to the district’s former congressman Ed Royce (R). Kim then represented a large chunk of the district in the state legislature for two years, defeating an incumbent in 2014 before losing a rematch two years later. She is a moderate establishment conservative, a decent fit for the historically-Republican but blue-trending district. After her narrow loss, Kim was heavily recruited for a rematch and has had unanimous GOP establishment support. She has had gangbusters fundraising, taking in $1.5M and leading Cisneros in both gross fundraising and cash on hand.

There is also a non-serious Indie candidate in the race. The primary results in this district will be instructive as to Kim’s chances at unseating Cisneros in the general. This is the archetypal upscale California area where Republicans have lost major ground in the Trump era, but Kim is a very strong candidate who nearly won the seat in spite of the 2018 wave. With incumbency and the district trend, Cisneros seems a slight favorite for now, but the race will be highly competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

CA-45: CA-45 is an R+3 seat based in upscale suburban areas in eastern Orange County, based around the upper-middle-class mega-suburb of Irvine and including nearby suburbs like Lake Forest and Orange.

Katie Porter

Incumbent Katie Porter (D) is seeking a second term. A former law professor and one-time law student of Elizabeth Warren, Porter has been one of the highest-profile members of the freshman caucus. She has been unabashedly casting herself as a Warren protege, taking up the mantle of consumer protection that the Senator used so effectively to push populist-left policies. She has also established herself as a master of the camera in congressional hearings with Trump administration officials and finance executives. Porter is unsurprisingly considered a rising star among Democrats’ progressive wing, and it does not take a huge amount of imagination to think she might be interested in looking for a way up the ladder in the near future. However, she will first need to get through a competitive general election in her purple seat this year, where four serious Republicans are vying to take her on.

Don Sedgwick

Laguna Hills councilman and ex-Mayor Don Sedgwick (R) is the best-funded of Porter’s challengers, raising nearly $1M. Sedgwick has served in local office for over two decades on the local school board, Laguna Hills council, and as Mayor of the upscale suburb of 30K. He owns a jewelry wholesaling firm, and may have the ability to self-fund, but has so far not deployed any of his own cash in the race. He is running as a mainstream establishment conservative and has a decent amount of establishment and institutional support.

Lisa Sparks

School board member Lisa Sparks (R) also works as a dean at Chapman University and is in her second year serving on the county-level school board. She is running as a moderate conservative and has a modest amount of institutional support. Sparks has fundraised well, raising a half million dollars without self-funding. Sparks has a home in the district, though she is temporarily living outside of it in Newport Beach.

Peggy Huang

Yorba Linda councilwoman Peggy Huang (R) works as a prosecutor in the state AG’s office. Huang has served six years on the council for the upscale suburb of 65K, which lies mostly outside the district, and she lives just outside the seat. Huang, who immigrated from Taiwan as a child, has fundraised well for this race, taking in a bit under a half-million with the aid of over $100K in self-funding. She also has a plurality of institutional support, including endorsements from two of the biggest local elected officials in the area, county supervisor Don Wagner (R), who represents almost the entire seat, and Irvine Mayor Christina Shea (R). She is running as a moderate conservative, arguably the most moderate candidate in the field.

Greg Raths

Mision Viejo Mayor Greg Raths (R) is a Marine veteran who has been a military and commercial pilot. He has served six years on the council for the upscale suburb of 90K, including a rotation as Mayor for the last year. Raths is trying to stake out a position on the right side of the field as an ideological conservative with antiestablishment proclivities. He has fundraised well for this race, taking in a bit under a half-million with the aid of over $100K in self-funding. However, Raths has received some negative headlines in recent weeks when it was discovered that he had paid Tomi Lahren and Corey Lewandowski to endorse him using the app Cameo.

There are also two non-serious Republicans in the race. Sedgwick’s strong fundraising probably makes him the very slight front-runner to advance to the general with Porter, but all four Republicans are credible and any of them have a chance to take the second spot. In the general, Porter’s high profile and incumbency, coupled with the purple and left-trending nature of the district, likely leave her to start as a mild favorite for re-election. However, the race is likely to be highly competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

CA-48: CA-48 is an R+4 seat covering most of Orange County’s wealthy coastal communities, from Seal Beach south through Huntington Beach and Newport Beach, and finishing around Laguna Beach. It also includes some more middle-class inland communities around Costa Mesa and Garden Grove.

Harley Rouda

Incumbent Harley Rouda (D) is seeking a second term. Rouda is an attorney and real estate investment executive who ousted longtime Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) on the 2018 wave. He has been an upscale establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies in his first term in Congress, and is considered among the more moderate members of the California Dem delegation. Unlike some other 2018 wave pickups in the state which were due more to demographic trends or broader anti-Trump fervor, Rouda’s victory was considered to be in large part due to Rohrabacher’s polarizing nature and unsavory ties to Russian interests. Thus, Republicans have recruited a top-tier challenger to Rouda.

Michelle Steel

Orange County commissioner Michelle Steel (R) is Rouda’s likely challenger. Steel has won multiple elections, serving 8 years on the Board of Equalization, California’s unique 5-member elected tax board, before being elected to represent essentially this entire district on the county commission. A Korean immigrant, Steel is a down-the-line establishment conservative and her husband is a former CAGOP chair. Unsurprisingly, she has fundraised extremely well, with over $1M in donor contributions and a half million in self-funding, and her resume and connections have given her essentially unanimous GOP establishment support for this race.

One other Republican is worth a mention. IT consultant Brian Burley (R) is also running as an establishment conservative, and has received some notice for his youth at age 26. With modest self-funding, he has raised enough to run a serious campaign, but his fundraising is poor overall. Burley also has essentially no name recognition or institutional support. Thus, it would be a shock if he came close to upsetting Steel for the right to take on Rouda, though he might take a significant vote share.

There are also two entirely non-serious Republicans and a non-serious Indie in the race. This very wealthy seat has been trending left in the Trump era. However, it has perhaps the strongest Republican heritage of any California seat the party lost in 2018, and Steel is a top-tier recruit for the GOP. The primary results will likely be highly instructive as to whether Republicans have a good shot to oust Rouda in the general. For now, Rouda’s incumbency leaves him a slight favorite, but the race will likely be highly competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

CA-49: CA-49 is an R+1 seat covering the Oceanside-Carlsbad area of coastal northern San Diego County and the upscale southeastern tip of Orange County to the north around Dana Point.

Mike Levin

Incumbent Mike Levin (D) is seeking a second term. Levin is an environmental attorney and former high-ranking Dem operative of mixed Mexican-Jewish heritage. He has straddled the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive in his first term in Congress, with an upscale progressive emphasis. The leftward trend in this upscale district, particularly in the diversifying Oceanside-Carlsbad area, means that this seat was considered one of the first write-offs for the House GOP in the 2018 wave. However, Levin does still have a serious challenger for his re-election bid this year.

Brian Maryott

San Juan Capistrano Mayor and 2018 candidate Brian Maryott (R) has been mayor of the suburban city of 34K for four years. He has fundraised well with hauls in the low 7-figures. A former finance executive, Maryott’s 2018 campaign was almost entirely self-funded, as he lost out on donor cash to more politically established GOP rivals. That 2018 bid ended in a disappointing 3% and eighth place in the crowded field. This time though, Maryott has become the consensus GOP choice, raising over a half-million from donors (on top of a half-million in self-funding) and cleared the field of other Republicans. He is running as a moderate conservative with an emphasis on fiscal issues.

Overall, Maryott is a credible candidate, but this seat has been ground zero for the leftward trend in California in the Trump era. Levin thus looks like a favorite for re-election. However, the primary results will be informative to see how good a chance Maryott may have to make the race competitive in November. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

CA-50: CA-50 is an R+11 seat covering San Diego’s eastern suburbs, the Escondido area to the north, and a small chunk of the Temecula Valley of southern Riverside County. The seat is vacant as ex-Rep. Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) resigned after pleading guilty to corruption charges. Unlike the CA-25 race, there will not be a special election for this seat.

Ammar Campa Najjar

2018 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) is the only serious Democrat in the race and all but certain to take the first general election slot. A former Obama White House staffer and Labor department official, Campa-Najjar fell short to Hunter by 3% last year despite Hunter’s scandal and the wave. Campa-Najjar has tacked a bit right from his establishment liberal 2018 campaign; he is now running as a moderate liberal, which has actually led to some grumbling against him from left-wing groups. Campa-Najjar has identity politics credibility as a biracial Arab-Hispanic, but his roots also give him a bit of a family problem: he lived in Gaza for four years as a child and his grandfather was one of the terrorists who bombed the 1972 Munich Olympics. Underscored by his 2018 loss, that profile seems likely to once again make him a tough sell in one of the state’s most conservative districts. Campa-Najjar has fundraised very well for this race with hauls of just under $2M.

Darrell Issa

Ex-Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is seeking a comeback in this district after retiring from CA-49 two years ago. Issa served eighteen years in Congress and represented a chunk of this seat’s northern portion until 2012. He has an unusual biography as a former delinquent in his youth who turned his life around and founded of a successful car alarm company. That business made Issa consistently the richest member of the House during his tenure, with a net worth in the 9 figures. Issa has long been a leader in the conservative movement; his early congressional career was notable for being the main driving force for the successful 2003 recall of then-Gov. Gray Davis (D). In his second decade in Congress, he focused his efforts on being a top critic of the Obama administration. He largely receded from the spotlight in the Trump era, and showed some openness to investigations of Trump in his final term. Issa’s combative conservatism proved an increasingly poor fit as Republican margins eroded dramatically in his upscale former coastal seat. After a surprisingly close shave in 2016, Issa retired in 2018 ahead of what would have been a near-certain loss. Shifting his focus east to this district, which comes within a couple miles of his home, Issa has amassed strong financial and establishment support. He has self-funded $3M and added that to $1M in donor fundraising, and has arguably the strongest establishment support, including endorsements from San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R) and ex-Rep. Duncan Hunter Sr. (R). However, Issa faces a rival who is perhaps just as big a name in the local GOP.

Carl DeMaio

Ex-San Diego Councilman Carl DeMaio (R) has also been a high profile member of the conservative movement with a more local focus. DeMaio’s four years representing a suburban seat in northeastern San Diego established him as a major force on behalf of fiscal conservatism at both the state and local level. That phase of his elected political career ended with losses for Mayor of San Diego in 2012 and for Congress in CA-52 in 2014, falling narrowly short in both races. The 2014 loss was notable for a particularly nasty smear campaign, where a male former employee falsely accused the openly-gay DeMaio of sexual harassment. Since 2014, DeMaio has stayed very much in the spotlight as one of the city’s leading talk radio hosts and a top conservative activist at the state level. He is credited with spearheading the recall of State Sen. Josh Newman (D) and leading the unsuccessful effort to roll back the state’s gas tax increase. Those grassroots ties have given DeMaio gangbusters fundraising for this race, with nearly $3M gross, including only a relatively modest $250K in self-funding; he also has good institutional support. Historically known as a libertarian-leaning Republican who endorsed Gary Johnson over Trump in 2016, DeMaio has increasingly embraced cultural conservatism over the last few years, particularly tacking rightward on immigration.

Though the two cut similar profiles as fiscally-focused ideological conservatives with a combative streak, Issa and DeMaio have long had a profound dislike for each other for reasons that are not entirely obvious. As their ideological and personality similarities provide them little prospect of building different coalitions to win, both Issa and DeMaio have decided to mount scorched-earth bids. The race between Issa and DeMaio has been notable for its exceptional vitriol, with the two trading increasingly personal attacks criticizing the other as opportunistic, insufficiently conservative, and not supportive of Trump. That fire could open up a lane for the third serious Republican in the race.

Brian Jones

State Sen. Brian Jones (R) (no relation to the former Rolling Stone of course) previously ran for this seat in the 2008 primary as a little-known local official, being flattened by Hunter Jr.’s Heir Force appeal as he inherited the seat from his father. Since then, Jones has represented almost all the district in the State Senate for two years, following six years in the early 2010s representing a large chunk of the seat in the State House. Jones has been considered an establishment-friendly ideological conservative in Sacramento and one of the more committed ideological conservatives in the legislature. He has decent name recognition and connections, but he simply does not have the profile of either Issa or DeMaio, and that has left him the clear third wheel in the race. His fundraising has been mediocre at a bit under $200K, and while he has a modest amount of establishment support, including the police union endorsement, he trails his rivals on that front as well. Jones’s biggest asset in the race is probably the nasty tone of the contest between Issa and DeMaio, meaning he could sneak up the middle to take the second general election spot if the attacks turn voters off both leading candidates.

There are also one non-serious Republican, one Dem who has ended her campaign, and four Indies and third party candidates on the ballot. Overall, it seems likely that Campa-Najjar will take the first spot, with Issa and DeMaio in a coin flip for the second spot. Jones could have a small chance to sneak up the middle and surprise, but it seems unlikely. Any Republican will start as a strong favorite in the general. However, Campa-Najjar proved himself a credible candidate in 2018, and there is a slight chance the leftward trend in suburbs and wounds from the bitter primary could make the general election competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

CA-52: CA-52 is a D+6 seat covering most of the upscale suburban northern half of San Diego proper, including La Jolla and Miramar.

Scott Peters

Incumbent Scott Peters (D) is seeking a fifth term. Peters is an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies, who picked this seat up in a close contest in 2012 and narrowly prevailed in an especially nasty race two years later. However, his 2016 and 2018 bids were increasingly easy, and a continued leftward trend in this very upscale seat seems likely to only intensify. After dabbling with the possibility of a bid for Mayor of San Diego this year, Peters declined to enter the race and is seeking re-election.

Jim DeBello

Tech executive Jim DeBello (R) is Peters’s likely rival. DeBello has had a long career in the tech industry, most notably by pioneering the technology for cell-phone check deposit systems. DeBello is running as a mainstream establishment conservative. He has raised little from donors, but has made himself a credible candidate with a quarter-million in self-funding. He has good establishment support in this race.

There are also a Democrat and an Independent in this race who are not a serious threat to advance. Overall, Peters is unlikely to face a difficult race barring an unexpected turn of events, especially as the district continues to stampede leftward. However, DeBello seems credible enough to make the race competitive if the climate turns worse for Democrats or Peters makes an unforced error. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-53: CA-53 is a White-plurality D+14 seat covering diverse urban neighborhoods of central San Diego around Mission Valley and suburban areas to the east and southeast, including eastern Chula Vista. The seat is open as longtime incumbent Susan Davis (D) is retiring, and the field is the most crowded in the state with 11 Democrats, 3 Republicans, and an Indie. However, only three Democrats are serious.

Sara Jacobs

2018 CA-49 candidate Sara Jacobs (D) is the granddaughter of Qualcomm founder Irwin Jacobs. Her family’s wealth has allowed her to be very well-funded, taking in $2M, of which 1.5M is self-funded. Jacobs has used that cash to flood the zone and swamp her rivals with ads. As she did two years ago, Jacobs is trying to downplay her silver-spoon upbringing. She has been playing up her youth (she is 31) and gender as the more appealing aspects of her biography, as well as her stints working as a staffer in the Obama-era State Department. Jacobs has decent establishment support as well. As in her campaign two years ago, she is running as an establishment liberal with some upscale progressive tendencies, and has a modest amount of institutional support. But Jacobs’s biggest asset is her cash advantage and early spending, which put her in a clear first in a recent independent poll of the race.

Georgette Gomez

San Diego councilwoman Georgette Gomez (D) is the only candidate in the race with elected experience. Gomez has served on the council representing an urban district east of downtown for four years, including a rotation as council president. She has identity politics credibility as an openly-lesbian Latina, and is running as a down-the-line bold progressive, staunchly left-wing even by California Democratic standards. Gomez has the lions’ share of establishment support, including the official state Democratic Party endorsement. She has also been endorsed by Bernie Sanders and the vast majority of labor groups. Gomez is not a slouch on the fundraising front either, with her more than $600K in gross fundraising outpacing Jacobs’s donor hauls. However, she is still far behind Jacobs in overall spending.

Janessa Goldbeck

Veteran Janessa Goldbeck (D) has an interesting biography of being an openly LGBT woman who joined the Marines after the Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy was eliminated. For a political newcomer without real connections, she has collected significant establishment support, including endorsements from the San Diego Union-Tribune and the national liberal veterans’ group VoteVets. She has also garnered good but not great fundraising of around a quarter-million. Goldbeck is running as an establishment liberal, arguably the most moderate serious candidate in the field.

A recent poll showed Jacobs with a sizeable lead in the race due to her spending and name recognition, and CW is that she is likely to take the first spot. The big question here is whether one of the three Republicans can coalesce the GOP vote enough to take one of the top two spots and render the general election moot, as the poll had a Republican in second. However, it seems very possible that Gomez’s strong institutional support is enough to make the general with Jacobs. Goldbeck seems a longer shot but could surprise and take the second spot herself. As random vote-scattering between non-serious candidates will likely play an outsized role in this process, it’s impossible to predict what is most likely. A Jacobs-Gomez or Jacobs-Goldbeck general election would likely be highly competitive, while Jacobs would cruise over any of the non-serious Republicans in the deep-blue seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.