Welcome to The Hill's Morning Report and to October. This daily email gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. (CLICK HERE to subscribe!) Jonathan Easley is hosting solo this week while co-creator Alexis Simendinger is out of town. Find him on Twitter @joneasley.

Hill.TV’s “Rising” program, starting at 8 a.m., features an interview with Rep. Elijah Cummings Elijah Eugene CummingsBlack GOP candidate accuses Behar of wearing black face in heated interview Overnight Health Care: US won't join global coronavirus vaccine initiative | Federal panel lays out initial priorities for COVID-19 vaccine distribution | NIH panel: 'Insufficient data' to show treatment touted by Trump works House Oversight Democrats to subpoena AbbVie in drug pricing probe MORE (D-Md.). Also tune in to hear from Uttam Dhillon, the acting administrator for the Drug Enforcement Administration, who will talk about the opioid crisis. http://thehill.com/hilltv

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The Supreme Court begins its new term this morning but justices will be short-handed as President Trump Donald John TrumpOmar fires back at Trump over rally remarks: 'This is my country' Pelosi: Trump hurrying to fill SCOTUS seat so he can repeal ObamaCare Trump mocks Biden appearance, mask use ahead of first debate MORE’s nominee Brett Kavanaugh remains in limbo ahead of what is certain to be another chaotic, angry and emotional week in Washington.

The explosive drama around Kavanaugh has gripped the nation, drawing in the #MeToo movement, the fight over a swing-vote on the Supreme Court during an election year and the politics of outrage that have been a defining characteristic of the Trump presidency.

A quick recap of where things stand ahead of a pivotal week in the Senate…

> Senate GOP leaders delayed a vote to end debate on Kavanaugh’s nomination after Sen. Jeff Flake Jeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeJeff Flake: Republicans 'should hold the same position' on SCOTUS vacancy as 2016 Republican former Michigan governor says he's voting for Biden Maybe they just don't like cowboys: The president is successful, some just don't like his style MORE (R-Ariz.), who is not running for reelection, said he’d only move forward if the FBI conducted an investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct against Kavanaugh.

Flake asked for a one-week delay. The clock started ticking on Friday.

In a Sunday night interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes,” Flake said there’s “not a chance” he would have called for the investigation if he were running for a second term.

"There’s no value to reaching across the aisle. There’s no currency for that anymore. There’s no incentive." — Flake

> The FBI is conducting a background check, not a criminal investigation. Kavanaugh, an appellate court judge, has been through several of these already. The FBI cannot issue subpoenas or force witnesses to testify. It can only interview subjects and pass the information on to lawmakers, who have been conducting their own interviews.

The investigation appears limited to allegations made by Christine Blasey Ford, who testified that Kavanaugh groped her and pinned her down at a high school party in 1982, and Deborah Ramirez, who claimed in a New Yorker article that Kavanaugh exposed himself at a Yale University party in the 1980s.

Kavanaugh vehemently denies allegations from both women. Late Sunday, The Washington Post obtained a memo authored by Rachel Mitchell, the lawyer Republicans tapped to question Ford at last week’s hearing, in which she details why she would not have brought criminal charges against Kavanaugh in that case.

The New York Times: How the FBI will investigate the Kavanaugh accusations.

CBS News: Why the FBI investigation can be conducted so quickly.

> The FBI does not appear to be investigating claims made by Julie Swetnick, who is represented by Michael Avenatti, the attorney for Stormy Daniels. Swetnick has alleged that Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge were present at nearly a dozen parties in the 1980s where she says she and her friends were the victims of “gang rape.”

Kavanaugh has called Swetnick’s allegations a “a joke” and “a farce.” Trump has attacked Avenatti, a Democrat who is considering running for president, as a “low life.”

> The scope and timing of the FBI probe has turned into a political fight.

Democrats, citing media reports like this one at NBC News, are claiming that the White House has interfered to keep some witnesses, such as Avenatti’s client, from being interviewed.

Reuters: FBI probe is next battle in war over Kavanaugh.

The Washington Post: Fight over Kavanaugh intensifies amid confusion over limits of FBI investigation.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein Dianne Emiel FeinsteinBiden leads Trump by 12 points among Catholic voters: poll Names to watch as Trump picks Ginsburg replacement on Supreme Court McConnell says Trump nominee to replace Ginsburg will get Senate vote MORE (D-Calif.), the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee, sent a letter to the White House on Sunday night asking they release the directive to the FBI.

“To limit the FBI as to the scope and who they’re going to question? That really — I want to use the word farce. But that’s not the kind of investigation that all of us are expecting the FBI to conduct.” – Sen. Mazie Hirono Mazie Keiko HironoDemocrats unveil plan declaring racism a public health issue Overnight Defense: US, Russia trade blame over Syria incident | Pentagon calls out China's 'counterproductive' military exercises, missile test | Democrats press Esper on COVID-19 response Democrats press Esper on 'concerning' rise in Pentagon's COVID-19 cases MORE (D-Hawaii), who is on the Judiciary Committee, on ABC’s “This Week”

The investigation is said to be limited to the “current credible allegations” that existed against Kavanaugh as of last Friday. Avenatti’s injection into the process has added a political element to the fight. Many Republicans do not find Swetnick’s allegations to be credible.

> The White House is defending the veracity of the investigation, with Trump lashing out at Democrats over Twitter, saying that they’ve already made up their minds and that nothing will be good enough for them.

The president said over the weekend the FBI will have “free rein” and that investigators are free to speak with anyone they deem appropriate.

The Hill: White House defends FBI investigation into Kavanaugh.

At the same time, White House officials warned that the FBI investigation must not run too far afield.

"This cannot become a fishing expedition like the Democrats would like to see it be.” — White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders on “Fox News Sunday”

Meanwhile, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley Charles (Chuck) Ernest GrassleyCollins says she will vote 'no' on Supreme Court nominee before election The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Trump, GOP allies prepare for SCOTUS nomination this week Gardner signals support for taking up Supreme Court nominee this year MORE (R-Iowa) has asked the FBI to investigate an apparent false charge of sexual assault made against Kavanaugh last week (The Hill).

James Comey: The FBI can do this.

Mark Penn: Polling shows FBI on the hot seat in Kavanaugh ordeal.

The swing senators

With only a 51-49 majority in the Senate, the GOP can afford to have one Republican vote against Kavanaugh.

Flake, who announced his support for Kavanaugh before successfully delaying the vote in a dramatic reversal on Friday, says he’s still a possible “yes.”

“I’m a conservative. He’s a conservative. I plan to support him unless [the FBI] turn up something — and they might.” — Flake to The Atlantic.

The other two Republicans in question are Sens. Lisa Murkowski Lisa Ann MurkowskiSenate GOP aims to confirm Trump court pick by Oct. 29: report Senate GOP sees early Supreme Court vote as political booster shot Pence defends Trump's 'obligation' to nominate new Supreme Court justice MORE (Alaska) and Susan Collins Susan Margaret CollinsSenate GOP aims to confirm Trump court pick by Oct. 29: report The Hill's Campaign Report: GOP set to ask SCOTUS to limit mail-in voting Senate GOP sees early Supreme Court vote as political booster shot MORE (Maine.). Both backed Flake’s move to delay the confirmation vote.

The pool of Democrats that might back Kavanaugh to potentially give Republicans some breathing room has shrunk to only two – Sens. Heidi Heitkamp Mary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampCentrists, progressives rally around Harris pick for VP 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama MORE (N.D.) and Joe Manchin Joseph (Joe) ManchinThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Trump, GOP allies prepare for SCOTUS nomination this week Trump meets with potential Supreme Court pick Amy Coney Barrett at White House Names to watch as Trump picks Ginsburg replacement on Supreme Court MORE (W.Va.).

The midterm politics

The Kavanaugh nomination was never supposed to drag on this close to the midterm elections.

The drama provides new uncertainty for Republicans, who were already facing the possibility of losing their majority in the House.

The Memo: GOP risks disaster with Kavanaugh, midterms.

The New York Times: Kavanaugh could help Republicans keep the Senate. He all but ensures the GOP will lose the House.

Doug Schoen: Why the GOP is about to get killed over Kavanaugh.

Some Republicans insist that the controversy has awoken conservatives that might have otherwise stayed home. Josh Holmes, a former top aide to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellPelosi: Trump hurrying to fill SCOTUS seat so he can repeal ObamaCare Senate GOP aims to confirm Trump court pick by Oct. 29: report Trump argues full Supreme Court needed to settle potential election disputes MORE (R-Ky.), says that Republicans are newly energized by what they view as cruel and unjust treatment toward Kavanaugh.

Perspectives



Jonathan Allen: Kavanaugh fight shows Washington is sick.

Kaitlyn Buss: Guilt should not be tied to gender.

Rebecca Traister: Fury is a political weapon and women must wield it.

Kathleen Parker: Sen. Lindsey Graham Lindsey Olin GrahamSenate GOP aims to confirm Trump court pick by Oct. 29: report The Hill's Campaign Report: GOP set to ask SCOTUS to limit mail-in voting Senate GOP sees early Supreme Court vote as political booster shot MORE (R-S.C.) is a hero for defending Kavanaugh.

Jill Abramson: In elevator video, rape survivors show how democracy works.

Stella Morabito: Senate’s defamation of Kavanaugh is a threat to all Americans.

Peter Beinart: America is finally listening to women but the nation is in crisis.

James R. Copland: The farce and tragedy of the confirmation process.

Andrew Sullivan: Everyone lost in the Kavanaugh-Ford hearings

Ruth Marcus: What is a week’s delay compared to a lifetime on the Supreme Court?

Michael Goodwin: Kavanaugh hearing was a national disgrace. The worst is yet to come.

LEADING THE DAY





***BREAKING OVERNIGHT: The U.S., Canada and Mexico have reached a deal to preserve the North American Free Trade Agreement after negotiators worked deep into the night to meet a self-imposed deadline … a White House official said the new agreement will be called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA … there were questions heading into the night about whether the U.S. and Mexico would go it alone, as major issues remained between the U.S. and Canada … Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leaving his office on Sunday night, told reporters, "it's a good day for Canada.” http://bit.ly/2NcIipB ***

CAMPAIGNS & POLITICS: Trump heads to Johnson City, Tenn., today for a campaign rally aimed at goosing turnout for Rep. Marsha Blackburn Marsha BlackburnTaylor Swift on National Voter Registration Day: 'We need everyone' Democrats smell blood with new DHS whistleblower complaint Hillicon Valley: Election officials prepare for new Russian interference battle | 'Markeyverse' of online fans helps take down a Kennedy | GOP senators unveil bill to update tech liability protections MORE (R), who is in a surprisingly close Senate race against former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D).

The Senate map is stacked against Democrats in their effort to overcome the GOP’s 51-49 majority in the upper chamber, but there are enough toss-up races right now — including in deep red states like Tennessee and Texas — that anything seems possible.

"I haven’t given up on the Senate, because I keep watching [Rep.] Beto O’Rourke [D-Texas] here — they just moved it to a toss-up in the Cook Political Report. [Republicans] had the enthusiasm advantage in 2010, and that’s a big reason why we got our clocks cleaned. We have the enthusiasm advantage in 2018." – Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez Thomas Edward PerezClinton’s top five vice presidential picks Government social programs: Triumph of hope over evidence Labor’s 'wasteful spending and mismanagement” at Workers’ Comp MORE at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin this weekend.

Nate Silver: O’Rourke has a chance to defeat Sen. Ted Cruz Rafael (Ted) Edward CruzTrump argues full Supreme Court needed to settle potential election disputes Press: Notorious RBG vs Notorious GOP The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Washington on edge amid SCOTUS vacancy MORE (R) in Texas.

Kristin Tate: Texas Senate race should frighten Republicans.

The Hill’s Reid Wilson and Lisa Hagen report that Democratic groups are preparing a massive final onslaught of advertising in the next month, hoping it will push them over the top in the Senate (The Hill).

The startling statistics:

“A review of campaign spending data to date shows Democratic candidates and outside groups have outspent Republicans and their allies in 10 of the 14 most competitive races on the map this year — in some cases by millions of dollars. Over the next six weeks, that spending gap will get worse: In the nine states where the major outside groups are playing, Democratic groups will outspend Republican organizations in all but two, by a combined margin of more than $40 million.” — Wilson and Hagen

In the House, Speaker Paul Ryan Paul Davis RyanKenosha will be a good bellwether in 2020 At indoor rally, Pence says election runs through Wisconsin Juan Williams: Breaking down the debates MORE (R-Wis.) has canceled votes for October, sending lawmakers home to campaign after passing an $854 billion spending package to avert a shutdown and keep the government open until early December (The Hill).

GOP strategists are making tough last-minute decisions about who in the House to support down the stretch.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a group closely aligned with Ryan, canceled a collective $3.1 million in advertising time it had reserved for Reps. Mike Coffman Michael (Mike) Howard CoffmanColorado mayor says he called protesters 'domestic terrorists' out of 'frustration' Colorado governor directs officials to reexamine death of Elijah McClain in police custody Petition demanding justice for Elijah McClain surpasses 2 million signatures MORE (R-Colo.) and Mike Bishop (R-Mich.), believing neither of the longtime swing-district lawmakers has a shot at reelection in November (The Hill).

And The Hill’s Wilson has this scoop — the National Republican Congressional Committee has canceled more than $1 million in planned advertising for Rep. Kevin Yoder Kevin Wayne YoderBottom line Amanda Adkins wins GOP primary to challenge Rep. Sharice Davids Sharice Davids to vote for Trump impeachment articles: 'The facts are uncontested' MORE (R-Kan.).

Expect to see more of that kind of triage in the days and weeks ahead as Republicans seek to limit the extent of the losses they face in the House.

The Hill: GOP centrists are in danger of being wiped out this fall, leaving a more conservative House caucus behind them.

The Hill: Democrats are pledging to reverse Trump’s defense agenda if they take back Congress in November.

More from the campaign trail … 2020 race kicks into high gear before the 2018 midterms are even over (The Washington Post ) … Sen. Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth WarrenHarris joins women's voter mobilization event also featuring Pelosi, Gloria Steinem, Jane Fonda Judd Gregg: The Kamala threat — the Californiaization of America GOP set to release controversial Biden report MORE (D-Mass.) says she’ll “take a hard look” at running for president after the Nov. 6 elections ( Boston Herald ) … Trump is signaling his support for House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy Kevin Owen McCarthyMcCarthy's Democratic challenger to launch first TV ad highlighting Air Force service as single mother Trump asked Chamber of Commerce to reconsider Democratic endorsements: report The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by The Air Line Pilots Association - White House moves closer to Pelosi on virus relief bill MORE (R-Calif.) to be the next Speaker if Republicans hold the House ( The Hill) … Congress has failed to pass any legislation to secure U.S. voting systems in the two years since Russia interfered in the 2016 election (The Hill) … Democratic candidates for governor are going on the offense about Medicaid expansion in red states (The Hill).





IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES





➔ WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: Late Sunday night, the Justice Department filed a lawsuit against California after Gov. Jerry Brown (D) signed into law the nation’s strictest net neutrality law (Reuters).

“States do not regulate interstate commerce — the federal government does. Once again the California legislature has enacted an extreme and illegal state law attempting to frustrate federal policy.” — Attorney General Jeff Sessions Jefferson (Jeff) Beauregard SessionsGOP set to release controversial Biden report Trump's policies on refugees are as simple as ABCs Ocasio-Cortez, Velázquez call for convention to decide Puerto Rico status MORE

> The Trump administration is moving hundreds of migrant children to a tent city in West Texas as the federal government struggles to deal with its largest ever population of detained children (The New York Times).

> Read The Hill’s sixth of seven investigative articles on how Republicans passed the tax overhaul; Trump’s signature legislative achievement and a key issue looming over the midterm elections. Part six takes a look at the behind-the-scenes lobbying frenzy and the hectic lives of Capitol Hill staffers toiling largely in anonymity. You can find the staff-written project HERE.

➔ INVESTIGATIONS: Where does special counsel Robert Mueller Robert (Bob) MuellerCNN's Toobin warns McCabe is in 'perilous condition' with emboldened Trump CNN anchor rips Trump over Stone while evoking Clinton-Lynch tarmac meeting The Hill's 12:30 Report: New Hampshire fallout MORE’s probe stand with the midterm elections just around the corner?

The Hill's Morgan Chalfant breaks the investigation into four categories: Those who have cooperated, the Russians who have been indicted, the other guilty pleas, and the remaining unknowns (The Hill).

The numbers so far: Thirty-seven have been charged in connection with the probe; eight have pleaded guilty; and six, including four Trump associates, have agreed to cooperate.

> The House Intelligence Committee voted to release transcripts from interviews it conducted with dozens of key witnesses in its now-shuttered Russia probe.

The 53 transcripts encompass thousands of pages of interviews. The document dump is expected before the Nov. 6 midterm elections.

Get ready for some good reading, straight from the mouths of Stephen Bannon, Hope Hicks Hope Charlotte HicksSenate intel leaders said Trump associates may have presented misleading testimony during Russia probe: report Cuomo turned down Trump invitation to participate in April press briefing: report Trump shakes up White House communications team MORE, Jared Kushner Jared Corey KushnerAbraham Accords: New hope for peace in Middle East Tenants in Kushner building file lawsuit alleging dangerous living conditions Trump hosts Israel, UAE, Bahrain for historic signing MORE, Donald Trump Jr. Don John Trump'Tiger King' star Joe Exotic requests pardon from Trump: 'Be my hero please' Zaid Jilani discusses Trump's move to cancel racial sensitivity training at federal agencies Trump International Hotel in Vancouver closes permanently MORE, Roger Stone Roger Jason StoneThe agony of justice Our Constitution is under attack by Attorney General William Barr Justice IG investigating Stone sentencing: report MORE, James Clapper James Robert ClapperOn China, Biden is no Nixon — and no Trump The Hill's 12:30 Report - Speculation over Biden's running mate announcement Trump slams former intelligence officials to explain 'reluctance to embrace' agencies MORE, Sally Yates Sally Caroline YatesButtigieg, former officials added to Biden's transition team The Hill's 12:30 Report: Delegates stage state-centric videos for the roll call Trump fires back at Yates for convention speech: 'Terrible AG' MORE, Jeff Sessions and Dan Coats Daniel (Dan) Ray CoatsFBI chief says Russia is trying to interfere in election to undermine Biden The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by The Air Line Pilots Association - Trump, Biden renew push for Latino support Former Intel chief had 'deep suspicions' that Putin 'had something on Trump': book MORE, among others (The Hill).

> The long-awaited face-to-face meeting between Trump and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein Rod RosensteinDOJ kept investigators from completing probe of Trump ties to Russia: report Five takeaways from final Senate Intel Russia report FBI officials hid copies of Russia probe documents fearing Trump interference: book MORE, originally scheduled for last week, has been delayed once again, as the Kavanaugh drama consumes Washington.

There is speculation that Trump could fire Rosenstein, who oversees the Mueller probe, or that they might negotiate the parameters of Rosenstein’s departure sometime down the road.

"A date for that [meeting] hasn’t been set. It could be this week. I could see it pushing back another week given all the other things that are going on with the Supreme Court, but we’ll see." – Sarah Huckabee Sanders on "Fox News Sunday."





The Morning Report is created by journalists Jonathan Easley jeasley@thehill.com & Alexis Simendinger asimendinger@thehill.com. Suggestions? Tips? We want to hear from you! Share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!





OPINION





The enduring scam of corporate tax breaks, by Bryce Covert, The New Republic. http://bit.ly/2DF2rFt

Let the economy decide your vote, by Alfredo Ortiz, opinion contributor, The Hill. http://bit.ly/2DGqN1y





WHERE AND WHEN





The House is in recess and will reconvene on Nov. 13.

The Senate convenes at 3 p.m.

The president holds a get-out-the-vote rally at 7 p.m. in Johnson City, Tenn. for Blackburn.

First lady Melania Trump Melania TrumpMelania Trump: Ginsburg's 'spirit will live on in all she has inspired' The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - You might want to download TikTok now Warning label added to Trump tweet over potential mail-in voting disinformation MORE departs today on her first solo international trip as first lady, heading to Ghana, Malawi, Kenya and Egypt during the first week of October. http://bit.ly/2QoWEW3

The Supreme Court begins a new term at 10 a.m. with eight justices. The court’s argument schedule: Weyerhaeuser Co. v. Fish and Wildlife Service and Mount Lemmon Fire District v. Guido.

Flake speaks today at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics on the campus of St. Anselm College.

The Newseum presents a tribute to the military newspaper Stars and Stripes. The documentary “The World’s Most Dangerous Paper Route” will air at 7 p.m at the Walter and Leonore Annenberg Theater. http://bit.ly/2QaFH1a





ELSEWHERE





> What comes next after Facebook’s massive data breach (The Associated Press).

> The inventor of the World Wide Web has a new plan to upend the internet (Fast Company).

> Elon Musk cuts a deal with the Securities and Exchange Commission, will step down as chairman of Tesla but remain CEO (The Wall Street Journal).





THE CLOSER





And finally …

Over the weekend, Ignition Records released “Strummer 001,” a box set compiling the solo work of the Clash frontman Joe Strummer, 16 years after the British rocker’s sudden death at the age of 50. The Clash’s classic punk album “London Calling” will turn 40 years old next year.

The 32 tracks on “Strummer 001” include rare and previously unreleased tracks. The website Pitchfork says the compendium “paints a vivid and complex portrait of Strummer as he existed outside of the Clash.”

“If I had five million pounds I'd start a radio station because something needs to be done. It would be nice to turn on the radio and hear something that didn't make you feel like smashing up the kitchen and strangling the cat.” - Strummer





