The UN’s recent alert that the world has at most 12 years to prevent climate catastrophe was a landmark moment. Never before has the threat of irreversible damage been so close.

Starting now, massive cuts in man made emissions are essential if global warming is to be kept to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. Even half a degree beyond that will significantly raise the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people, as well as dooming all the world’s coral reef systems and, probably, Arctic sea ice.

Even now, at 1.1C of warming, the world’s climate is already entering dangerous territory.

According to data from the Centre of Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, in 2018 so far approximately 5,000 people have died and 28.9 million have needed emergency assistance or humanitarian aid because of extreme weather.

Here is a global calendar of this year’s major disasters. Scientists say these types of event are becoming more frequent and intense as emissions rise and the planet heats up. The map shows the scale of the human impact, from January to the end of November.

The human impact of 2018’s climate disasters

0 deaths 0 affected January February March April May June July August September October November Extreme heat Extreme cold Storm Flood Drought Wildfire Freezing weather hits Europe A strong blast of cold air from Siberia caused blizzards to sweep through Europe at the end of February and beginning of March. Nicknamed the “Beast from the East” in the UK, the cold front caused unusually low temperatures across the continent. The effects were deadly, particularly for homeless people. In Poland 23 people died, the majority of whom were rough sleepers. Temperatures across Europe plummeted below historical averages While it is possible the weather was a freak occurrence, scientists are concerned the event may have been caused by a weakening of the polar vortex as a result of global warming. Drought in Argentina decimates crops Argentina and Uruguay sustained severe droughts throughout January to March that hurt both countries’ economies. Argentina, which is the world’s third-largest exporter of corn and soya beans, was hit the hardest with its most severe drought in 30 years. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicted losses to the national economy of up to $3.4bn. The drought caused a surge in global grain prices Though this disaster started in South America, the effects were felt across the planet, as grain prices soared at the news of lower yields. A 2015 report from UK insurance company Lloyd’s predicted that droughts like this could become more frequent and would pose threats to the global food supply, especially if multiple countries were affected at once. Europe swelters under heatwave Europe endured a series of heatwaves throughout the summer that saw temperatures reach 45C in Portugal. Three people died in Spain from heatstroke, forest fires broke out in Scandinavia – as far north as the Arctic circle – while UK hospitals had to adopt emergency measures to cope with illnesses caused by the heat. A study by World Weather Attribution said the extreme heat was made more than twice as likely by climate change, and that these types of sustained heatwaves will be more common in the future. May to July was the UK’s hottest three month period on record Record flooding affects more than 5 million in India One of the deadliest climate-related natural disasters of 2018 took place in the coastal Indian state of Kerala. Flooding in August claimed the lives of 361 people and left hundreds of thousands completely stranded or homeless. India was hit by severe floods from May to October, and the official number of deaths will be unknown for some time. A study published this year by the World Bank suggests that climate change is already affecting more than 800 million people living in south Asia, and the situation will get worse in the future. Kerala’s worst flooding in a century affected a population equivalent to several large European cities Hurricane Florence batters eastern US A year after one of the worst hurricane seasons in US history, 2018 brought more catastrophic storms. Hurricanes Florence and Michael left parts of North Carolina’s coast and the Florida Panhandle unrecognisable. Both storms were colossal – Florence was reportedly 500 miles (805km) wide and Michael 350 miles (563km) wide – which is big enough to cover the whole of the United Kingdom. The strongest storm of the year, however, wreaked devastation on Guam, the Philippines and parts of south China in September. Super typhoon Mangkhut recorded wind speeds of up to 175mph, the equivalent to a strong category 5 hurricane, and was responsible for more than 100 deaths. Part of the destruction caused by hurricanes is due to the rainfall they bring. One study indicates the total rainfall unleashed by Hurricane Florence was 50% higher than it would have been without human-induced climate change. Meteorologist Ryan Maue estimates the total for Florence to be 11tn gallons of water. Deadly wildfires ravage California California has a long history of devastating wildfires but early estimates suggest 2018 could be the most calamitous year ever. The Mendocino Complex fire obliterated the record for the largest blaze in the state’s history by burning 460,000 acres, almost 180,000 more than the Thomas fire last year. Adding the many other conflagrations in California this year, it is estimated that close to a million acres have been devastated. The US Geological Survey estimated the 2018 California wildfire season emitted as much carbon dioxide as the state produces from a year’s electricity generation. While the overwhelming majority of scientists say global warming is creating tinder-box conditions, the climate change-denying US secretary of the interior, Ryan Zinke, blamed forest management.

Methodology

Data displayed on the map and on the impact counter come from EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database, Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster, Debarati Guha-Sapir.

All EM-DAT figures are estimates, based on official government figures or best-available media reports. This article includes data for meteorological, climatological and hydrological events (with the exclusion of landslides).



The list includes disasters where either a) 10 people are killed, b) 100 people are affected, or c) the government declares a state of emergency or issues a call for international assistance. ‘Affected’ is defined as requiring immediate assistance during a period of emergency, i.e. requiring basic survival needs such as food, water, shelter, sanitation and immediate medical assistance.

The data covers January – November 2018. EM-DAT data for the impact of weather events in December 2018 is currently under process of verification. Some November figures include preliminary estimates which may be later revised.

Image credits

Top composite, clockwise:



Camp Fire, Magalia, California, 9 Nov 2018. Noah Berger/AP Photo

Pollocksville, North Carolina, 17 Sept 2018. in aftermath of Hurricane Florence, Steve Helber/AP

Satellite image of Hurricane Florence off US east coast September 13, 2018. NASA

London commuters on 19 July 2016. Tolga Akmen/LNP/REX/Shutterstock

Scorched earth. Clint Spencer/Getty Images

Snow in Scotland, 2 March 2018. Duncan Bryceland/REX/Shutterstock

Additional photos:

Heatwave in Portuguese Algarve, 4 August, 2018, Carlos Costa/AFP/Getty Images

Snow at bus stop, Burnopfield, UK, March 2, 2018, Photo: Ian Horrocks/Getty Images

Kerala flooding, India, 19 Aug 19 2018. AP Photo/Aijaz Rahi

Corn plants in Argentina, 9 April 2018. Reuters/Marcos Brindicci

Photographs have been converted to monochrome by the Guardian.