How Trump changed the Obama landscape

Donald Trump peeled off nearly a third of the counties that voted twice for President Obama, one of the shifts that helped drive his improbable victory in last week’s presidential election. In all, Trump turned 209 of the 676 counties that had twice supported Obama. Those counties, home to 17 million people, were centered largely in the Midwest. They are smaller, whiter, and slower-growing than the counties that supported Democrats again this year.

Votes shift Republican in the North

Voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 Voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 Voted for Obama in 2008 Voted for Obama in 2008 No shift No shift

Source: Associated Press Note: Alaska does not report county-level results.

Divide more pronounced

The 2016 election continued a trend of Democratic support strengthening around major U.S. cities, and support for Republicans strengthening almost everywhere else.

2004 2008 2012 2016

Source: Associated Press Note: Alaska does not report county-level results.

Economic variables

The counties that voted twice for Obama, then backed Trump were not economically distressed; incomes and employment there were not all that different from other parts of the United States. In 2014 – the most recent year for which Census records were available – unemployment in those counties was at 9.1%, a rate identical to the rest of the USA.

Each line represents a county that voted for Obama twice, and then Trump or Clinton

County unemployment in 2014

Median household income in 2014

Demographics

But the counties that switched their votes from Obama to Trump were far smaller, whiter, and slower-growing than the rest of the Obama coalition. The population of counties that flipped to Trump was 78% white.

Population growth (2010-2014)

Percentage of white residents in 2014

Two votes for Bush, then Clinton

Parts of the political map have shifted in the opposite direction, though the change has taken longer. Eighty-three counties that George W. Bush won twice, in 2000 and 2004, supported Clinton this year, including those surrounding Dallas and Houston, and the suburbs of Atlanta.

Contributing: Mark Nichols, USA TODAY

SOURCE: USA TODAY analysis of AP and U.S. Census Bureau data