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Despite having called for elections to reinforce his control over the country, Mr Erdogan could find himself in a rather difficult position if Sunday’s vote goes according to the poll’s previsions. A survey conducted by the think tank Centre for American Progress shows that the ruling coalition formed by Mr Erdogan’s party AKP and nationalist MHP has sensibly lost consensus. According to the poll, only 42.6 percent of voters are planning to cast their ballot for either one of the two parties. Such a result would represent a big defeat for Mr Erdogan, whose party gained 40.87 percent of the total votes by itself at the November 2015 elections, while the MHP gathered more than 16 percent.

This electoral outcome would force the Turkish president to seek the support of another party and build a larger coalition to remain in power. In turn, the poll signals a great gain of the four main opposition parties, the CHP, IYI, SP and DP, which by running together as a bloc have obtained so far a virtual 32.8 percent. And Kurdish-rooted and starkly anti-Erdogan HDP looks also set to gain consensus, gathering 10.4 percent of the votes in the poll. These results come as a surprise to Mr Erdogan, who has run Turkey since 2002 and called a snap election in April to strengthen his iron grip on the country for five more years.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing a knife-edge election

A victory would see him holding more power than ever, as reforms aiming at giving the president more executive powers are set to come into force after the election. According to these constitutional changes, approved by Turkish citizens with a referendum last year, Parliament will retain the power to propose laws, but the president will be able to appoint the cabinet without holding consultations. After calling the election, Mr Erdogan said the probability for his party and MHP to fall below the 300 seats needed to control the 550-seat parliament was “very, very low.” In a bid to secure victory, the AKP has yesterday pledged to curb the soaring price of potatoes and onions, which soared respectively by 94 percent and by more than 200 percent in the past month.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan called a snap election in April to strengthen his power