Hillary Clinton swung the polls very quickly after the DNC. In the span of 10 days, she went from trailing Donald Trump by a point to being up by seven. Trump has been slowly gaining back some of the ground since.

In the last two weeks, Trump has been able to cut the lead from 7% to 5% on a small but consistent basis. In fact the last 4 national polls all show Clinton’s lead at 5 or less.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics

Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll

Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.

Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days

For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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