Hamilton’s steel industry and business community are on tenterhooks after President Donald Trump pledged to impose a 25 per cent tariff next week on steel exported to the U.S.

“This is the worst-case scenario for Hamilton,” said local chamber of commerce president Keanin Loomis. “We didn’t expect this.”

Trump announced Thursday his plans to introduce the steel tariff as well as a 10 per cent tariff on aluminum.

The president was known to be weighing a variety of options: massive tariffs on just a few countries believed to ship dumped Chinese steel, a quota limiting imports, or a global tariff of around 24 per cent.

“We expected Canadian producers to be spared,” Loomis said.

The chamber estimates there are 10,000 steel industry jobs in the Hamilton area — including Stelco and ArcelorMittal Dofasco, the latter having 5,000 employees alone, as well as a number of smaller companies.

Those jobs support another 30,000 other local jobs, Loomis said. “It’s huge ripple effect.”

The drama started with the Trump administration unsheathing a weapon rarely used in the trade world: a so-called national security exception. American law allows the president to order tariffs if it’s declared a matter of national security.

University of Toronto steel expert Peter Warrian said Hamilton has the country’s two biggest steel producers in Stelco and ArcelorMittal Dofasco. Much of the steel exported to the U.S. is produced in Hamilton.

“Hamilton is at the centre of the storm,” he said.

Gary Howe, president of United Steelworkers Local 1005 in Hamilton, said the union will assess the situation once it knows for sure the tariff is happening.

“We don’t even know if the tariffs will include Canada.”

Last year, Canada exported an estimated $6 billion of steel — almost 90 per cent of it to the U.S. where Canadian steel represented just over 15 per cent of overall imports.

The Canadian government and its business allies intend to keep lobbying hard for an exemption. In Washington, some hoped Trump might get cold feet — as he’s done on specific policies before, like immigration reform.

“You can never be certain of anything that comes out of this administration,” Loomis said.

Still, there is plenty of cause for concern, he said.

ArcelorMittal Dofasco vice-president of corporate affairs Tony Valeri said: “At the moment, all I can tell you is the lines of communication are open and we continue to point out that Canada should be exempted.”

He said it’s too early to know about job losses or other negative impacts should the tariff be imposed.

“We have an announcement there will be an announcement (next week).”

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Valeri added, however, “I have every confidence we’ll come through.”

Loomis says what Trump intends to do will negatively affect the Canadian and U.S. markets alike because their economies and manufacturing supply chains are so integrated.

“There will be major disruptions.”

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