2018 was a forgetful year for Devonta Freeman. After suffering a multitude of injuries at the end of 2017, he was never able to get himself healthy to play much at all last season.

He managed to play a few snaps before re-aggravating his injuries from the previous year and very soon, the season for him was ablaze and gone. With almost a full year off to recover and his main competition for carries, Tevin Coleman, gone to San Francisco, it is time for the Phoenix to return from the ashes. Based on Fantasy football Calculator; Freeman is currently being taken as the #20 RB at 4.03 in PPR Leagues. Taking a look at different factors, there are some reasons to be hopeful he finishes higher than his ADP would indicate.

The first factor is past history. Predicting injuries is a tricky thing to do, it must be accounted for if there is a history, but it can’t be projected. Missing one full year can definitely put some worry into owner’s minds, but as much as injury history can play a role in not taking a player, those same players past performance history should be taken into consideration as well. Freeman took over as the starting RB for Atlanta in 2015. Since then he has finished RB1, RB6, and RB13 before being injured at the end of 2017. While injuries should be accounted for when drafting any player, Devonta Freeman on talent alone has already proven he is a more talented RB than ADP suggests, with his past performance.

Another factor to consider is opportunity share. The four running backs directly in front of Freeman in ADP are Mark Ingram, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and Sony Michel. The case can be made that other than Henry, Freeman has a shot to have a larger opportunity share than the others. With Jones having to watch Jamaal Williams steal touches and Michel splitting snaps with James White and Rex Burkhead, the most valuable starting spot seems to be with the Atlanta Falcons. Sure, Ito Smith proved enough last year to be able to take some snaps but he’s not going to see significant workload. The Falcons would be wise to give Freeman a breath more often than they averaged from 2015-2017. However, talented players belong on the field as often as possible.

In 2017, Freeman was on track for his third 1000 yard season and close to10 rushing touchdowns. His 2017 season also had him ranked 11th in Red Zone touches and third in goal-line carries, according to Playerprofiler.com. With that opportunity, he evaded 63 tackles which had him ranked 11th most in the NFL for an running back. Combine his receiving ability with his rushing prowess and a picture of a complete back starts to form. From 2015 to 2017 he had 4,357 yards from scrimmage and 35 touchdowns. He averaged 11 TD per season and 1,452 yards from scrimmage per season. Even though he missed some games in that span, he averaged 284 total touches per season and 5.1 yards per touch in that span.

By all indication, Freeman is on track to be 100% healthy leading into 2019. By analysis, a healthy Freeman is a top 15 RB with upside. Factoring in the injury, the ADP of 4.03 and #20 RB ranking is not unreasonable. However, when drafting your team, think about opportunity share, has the player performed as a top back before, and does the player still have an upside. When looking at everything known, the answer seems to be, yes, to all the above for Freeman. He is 100 % healthy and Coleman is now with San Francisco, opening up space to be the guy. He has finished as RB1, RB6 and even with injury in 2017, RB13. Showing his proven performance. His upside is still very much there as his ADP suggests he will be a low RB2 despite never finishing lower than RB13. Freeman is a buy candidate in dynasty for teams looking to win now and a potential steal of a top 12 RB in redraft leagues.



