Unfortunately, the bookies are yet to release their anytime goalscorer odds for the midweek clashes in DGW 37, so the article this week focuses on the DGW fixtures for our defence (clean sheet odds for both weekend and midweek fixtures have been published), but only the weekend fixtures for our attackers.

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Liverpool 2.3 & 2.8 64% West Ham 2.3 & 3.2 61% Man Utd 2.5 & 3 60% Norwich 4.75 & 2.2 57% Sunderland 4.2 & 3 49% Chelsea 3.5 & 4.2 46% Newcastle 2.3 43% Everton 5.8 & 3.6 40% Bournemouth 2.7 37% Crystal Palace 2.7 37% Watford 8 & 3.85 35% Tottenham 3 33% Leicester 3.25 31% Man City 3.7 27% Stoke 4.2 24% Arsenal 4.6 22% West Brom 4.75 21% Southampton 5.2 19% Aston Villa 6 17% Swansea 7.5 13%

As you would expect, the defensive rankings are dominated by teams that play twice in Gameweek 37. Liverpool have the best chance of keeping a clean sheet, 64%, as they host Watford and Chelsea. The Hornets have nothing left to play for, with their league campaign petering out a few months back, and have blanked in 3 of their last 6 away games. Chelsea, however, have found their shooting boots lately and have bagged 12 goals in their last 6 road trips. With rotation rife in the Liverpool squad due to ongoing Europa League commitments, we select Simon Mignolet between the sticks and Alberto Moreno, who has scored a goal and supplied 3 assists in his last 3 league starts, for our squad.

West Ham (61%) rank second for GW37 with the Hammers also facing a pair of home clashes, against Swansea and Manchester United respectively. A clean sheet against West Brom last time out bodes well ahead of meetings with 2 goal-shy attacks; in their last 3 away games, the Swans have scored twice, whilst United have managed just 1. As a result, we call upon Aaron Cresswell (a goal and an assist in his last 4) and Angelo Ogbonna.

Manchester United (60%), Norwich (57%) and Sunderland (49%) complete the top 5 for this round of fixtures. Away games at Norwich and West Ham aren’t the easiest of tasks for the Red Devils, but they cannot be ignored on the back of 17 clean sheets this season. We plump for Antonio Valencia, who has started the last 3 at right-back and has carded 2 assists in that time, despite the possible risk of rotation. Martin Olsson (1 goal and 2 assists this term) is our pick from the East Anglian contingent, with a pair of home fixtures (Manchester United and Watford) allied with the very real threat of relegation hopefully kicking the Canaries into action. Likewise, the Black Cats have it all to play for and Vito Mannone has averaged 6.2 points per game over his last 5, courtesy of 3 clean sheets coupled with save and bonus points, and satisfies our squad selection requirements.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Southampton (19% – away to Tottenham), Aston Villa (17% – home to Newcastle) and Swansea (13% – away to West Ham) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Harry Kane 2.05 49% Christian Benteke 2.2 45% Jamie Vardy 2.2 45% Sergio Aguero 2.23 45% Papiss Cisse 2.3 43% Andy Carroll 2.5 40% Callum Wilson 2.55 39% Diego Costa 2.63 38% Marcus Rashford 2.7 37% Anthony Martial 2.7 37% Jermain Defoe 2.75 36% Riyad Mahrez 2.88 35% Dimitri Payet 3 33% Connor Wickham 3 33% Romelu Lukaku 3 33% Josh King 3.13 32% Shane Long 3.5 29% Saido Berahino 3.65 27% Alexis Sanchez 3.75 27% Danny Welbeck 3.75 27% Kevin de Bruyne 3.75 27% Andros Townsend 3.8 26% Dieumerci Mbokani 3.9 26% Sheyi Ojo 4 25% Christian Eriksen 4 25% Eden Hazard 4 25% Peter Crouch 4 25% Marko Arnautovic 4 25% Juan Mata 4.2 24% Bafetimbi Gomis 4.33 23% Wahbi Khazri 4.33 23% Jordan Ayew 4.33 23% Sadio Mane 4.5 22% Yannick Bolasie 4.5 22% Ross Barkley 4.6 22% Andre Ayew 4.75 21% Stephane Sessegnon 6 17% Nathan Redmond 6.25 16% Mark Noble 7 14% Ashley Westwood 19 5%

Golden Boot leader Harry Kane tops the bookies’ attacking ranks this weekend with a 49% chance of finding the net as Southampton roll up to White Hart Lane. Despite the title race being over, Spurs still have 2nd place to play for and Kane will want to secure the top goalscorer accolade for himself. Given that the Saints haven’t kept a clean sheet in 10 games, Kane will certainly fancy his chances of getting on the scoresheet and takes our captain’s armband for the week.

Christian Benteke and Jamie Vardy (both 45%) join Kane in our front 3. Benteke, returning from injury, seems primed to start Liverpool’s home encounter with Watford after both Daniel Sturridge and Roberto Firmino played over 88 minutes on Thursday for the Reds in Europe. Vardy, meanwhile, returns from suspension for Leicester in time for a title party at The King Power on Saturday and will be looking to make up ground on Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero in the race for the Golden Boot, having scored 3 in 2 prior to his recent suspension.

Our midfield lineup begins with PFA Player of the Year Riyad Mahrez (35%) and fellow PFA Team of the Year member Dimitri Payet (33%). Mahrez has 17 goals to his name this season and will be looking to pile more misery on an Everton side low on confidence following their FA Cup semi-final defeat and having conceded 5 goals in their last 2 outings. Down in London, Payet will more than likely be a key figure as West Ham continue to chase a Champions League spot when they entertain Swansea. Francesco Guidolin’s men have conceded 12 in their last 4 away games and look like they are already on their summer holidays.

Josh King (32%) and Alexis Sanchez (27%) complete our midfield quartet. King has 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 8 games, and a home clash with West Brom (1 clean sheet in 7) affords him the chance to build on his impressive end to the season. Sanchez also comes into the weekend in good form (6 goals and 2 assists in 8) and will be hoping to take advantage of a tired Manchester City side as the Gunners and the Citizens battle it out for 3rd place, and automatic passage into next season’s Champions League group stages. Kevin de Bruyne (27%) has to settle for a place on our bench this time round.

Team of the Week

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Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.