The big question about Warren has always been “where does she grow from here”? There may be more Sanders support to squeeze into her camp, but at some point, there will be a floor. He has a core fanatical base that has zero incentive to defect. And why should they? Biden isn’t a long-term threat yet. If he’s holding on to his core black vote through South Carolina and is a threat for the nomination, at that point there might need to be a reckoning and consolidation. But there’s no hurry. As I’ve maintained, Warren and Sanders actually help each other in this campaign. Two voices pushing the near-same message is better than just one.

Ignoring Yang’s vote, because it’s just not serious or real, you have another 40% or so of Daily Kos Democrats who are sprinkling their support among candidates who are lagging far behind, both here and in the outside world. Public surveys have shown that Warren is by far the most popular “second choice” candidate. If that dynamic holds here, it would suggest that Warren has a great deal of room to grow once people decide to abandon their first choices.

Among other candidates, Julián Castro was clearly penalized for his last debate performance, losing over half his support from the last Straw Poll—from 507 votes to 222, for an effective 0% of the vote. His was the worst performance, being outpaced even by Tom Steyer’s 441 votes. Who are these people who think the answer to today’s Democratic Party is a white, male, hedge fund billionaire? The Yang crowd I can understand. Steyer’s supporters? I never will.

Pete Buttigieg has shown amazing consistency the last six Straw Polls. It’s a solid floor, but with no room to grow. And Harris has been the most perplexing candidate, showing flashes of brilliance and lighting up support, only to see that support fade away as she disappears from people’s attention. Now her fundraisers are fretting that wealthy donors are no longer impressed by her. This is Warren’s biggest advantage—she doesn’t have to play to a wealthy donor class, one whose priorities and interests don’t always necessarily line up with the primary electorates.

But really, the big story in that chart above is the calamitous fall in Bernie Sanders’ support. From regularly getting 60% in the 2016 cycle, to a high of 44% this cycle, to just 15% yesterday, it’s clear that while his ideas remain ever popular, Warren has become the preferred vehicle for bringing that ideology to the White House.