Donald Trump is teetering on the brink of a historic defeat, but Republican National Committee officials are poised to reward the party's chairman Reince Priebus with another term.

Priebus is soliciting support for January’s chairmanship election — leaving some insiders with the impression that he is preparing for a future with the party after a Trump loss.


And a POLITICO analysis suggests he could be a lock for reelection, regardless of what happens on Nov. 8.

In interviews and email exchanges with 50 members of the Republican National Committee, dozens of the party’s leaders indicated that they wouldn’t blame Priebus for the second straight presidential defeat on his watch. Rather, they credit him with turning around a broken party apparatus, raising boatloads of cash and standing by the party’s polarizing nominee despite fierce headwinds.

“I’d walk through a wall for Reince,” said J.L. Spray, the RNC’s Nebraska committeeman, one of 32 who pledged support for Priebus’ increasingly likely reelection bid.

Priebus has begun having conversations with the 168 members of the RNC – three from every state and territory – asking whether he can count on their support should he decide to run again. He’s careful to tell them he hasn’t made up his mind yet, say several members who have spoken with him. But many of them say they emerged with the distinct impression he’s leaning toward extending his already unprecedented run with a fourth two-year term.

“I think it’s something that he thinks he might do, would probably do,” said Randy Evans, a Georgia RNC member, who said he discussed the prospect with Priebus about two weeks ago. “He’d be remiss, if he’s interested … to not say to 86 people I’m going to need your vote.”

If he decides to jump into the race, Priebus’ fate will be in the hands of the 168-member committee at its January meeting. A majority vote is required to select the next chair. Priebus first won election to his post in January 2011, besting a crowded field when he was, at the time a relatively unknown Wisconsin lawyer. He succeeded Michael Steele, whose chairmanship included the historic tea party wave but left the committee financially hobbled. Priebus ingratiated himself to RNC members in part by an intense drive to rebuild the party's finances and beef up an inadequate digital and ground operation. Those efforts earned him reelection in 2013 -- despite a presidential election loss -- and 2015, after another year of huge Congressional and gubernatorial gains.

Evans, who helped count votes for the RNC at last month’s national convention, said he’s pegged Priebus’ floor of support for a fourth term at more than 100 members of the committee, easily enough to overcome potential challenges from other hopefuls, such as Arizona GOP chairman Robert Graham or former Hewlett Packard CEO and 2016 contender Carly Fiorina. Matt Pinnell, a senior RNC official who is well-liked by the members, has been eyeing a bid as well, but he’s seen as unlikely to jump into the mix if Priebus pursues another term. Interviews with RNC members from 32 states and one territory seem to bear out claims of broad support for Priebus.

“I am enthusiastically encouraging Reince Priebus to run again as chairman,” said Bob Asher, a committeeman from Pennsylvania. “He’s been one of the two best chairman of my lifetime, he and Haley Barbour.”

“I strongly believe that the best thing that could happen to the party, is to have Reince as our leader for a couple of more years,” said Ron Kaufman of Massachusetts. Priebus earned similar accolades from New Hampshire’s Jennifer Horn, Michigan’s Ronna Romney McDaniel and Hawaii’s Miriam Hellreich.

But Priebus’ return won’t be without heartburn in some segments of the party.

Allies of Pinnell, who was seen by many insiders as Preibus’s chosen successor, bristled at the chairman’s recent steps towards a reelection bid.

“He thinks he’s like FDR or something where he can maintain power forever, but meanwhile he’s shutting out the next generation of Republican leaders,” said an operative who is close to Pinnell.

A handful of members, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Priebus appeared motivated to consolidate his hold on power because of the increasingly visible challenges by Fiorina and Graham. Bullish predictions by his top deputies may be more about scaring off competition, they argue, than about his actual depth of support. And reappointing Priebus after what could be a wrenching November defeat would send the wrong message to the party’s base, they said.

“I don’t get the point other than ego,” said one RNC member. “Reince making calls at this point seems like he’s preparing for Trump to lose.”

A loss would immediately set up Reince as the establishment poster-child, two RNC members noted, and he’d surely face challenges from those who position themselves as outsiders. Another detractor on the committee noted that many of Reince’s vigorous supporters might have abrupt changes of heart after Election Day.

“When we lose in November, and c’mon, we’re going to lose, a lot of people are going to be second-guessing things. They’re not going to care who they like,” the member said. “The mood of the committee after an election is difficult to read before that election … come next January, people are going to say, how in the world are we going to move this forward.”

Another local GOP official was blunter: “There is no absolutely no way Reince Priebus wins re-election if he loses in November,” the official said. “Republicans will be in an all-out civil war that pales in comparison to the intra-party fights of the 2010 and 2012 cycles between the tea party and the so-called establishment. This is an inflection point in the history of the Republican Party -- there's no going back even if Donald Trump loses.”

Priebus himself made a similar point when he captured his third term in 2015.

“Running an RNC without the White House for another eight years — 16 years total — will be near an impossible task,” he said in a POLITICO interview at the time. “I don’t think people realize how hard it is to run a national party … without a president.”

The 2016 election, he said, “could be a do-or-die moment for our party.”

In fact, if Trump were to upend polls and win the election, much of the jockeying for the GOP chairmanship would be moot. Incoming presidents typically select their preferred party leader, decisions that are often ratified without objection by the national committees.

“I am counting on a Trump win in November,” said Lori Klein Corbin, Arizona’s RNC committeewoman. “In that case, as I told Reince Priebus, I will be voting for whomever Trump would like in the position of Chairman.”

Yet several Priebus fans on the RNC suggested that a victorious Trump should select him anyway because the two have forged a positive relationship. Trump has spoken positively about Priebus on the trail in recent weeks, despite tangling with him and the party establishment for much of the spring. Priebus introduced Trump at a recent rally in Pennsylvania, and the RNC has provided most of the bones of Trump’s skeletal state-level campaign infrastructure.

RNC consultant Steve Munisteri, a close Priebus ally who formerly chaired the Texas Republican Party, asserted that Priebus is so popular he could win reelection even if Trump won and then signaled his support for a rival candidate.

“I think Reince Priebus would win reelection no matter what — even if he wasn’t the choice of the president-elect. Having said that, I know that they genuinely get along really well,” Munisteri said, adding that Priebus “would consult President-elect Trump” before running for reelection. Priebus “is still hopeful that our nominee will win. And, if he does, President-elect Trump would have a great influence on the process, said Munisteri, “but the final decision would be made by the 168, and Reince is exceptionally popular with the 168. Carly or anyone who runs against Reince is going to be in for a rude awakening.”

But the consultant, who had lunch with Priebus on Monday, cautioned that the chairman’s conversations with RNC members do not mean he is actively seeking reelection.

“Reince has made it very clear that he will not make a final decision as to whether he runs for reelection or not until after the November election because he does not want the race for chairman to be a distraction,” Munisteri said. “If somebody asks him if he is running again, he says that he is leaving the door open, but would not initiate a campaign even if he decides to run until after the election.”

There’s still a pocket of RNC members who could be wildcards. About a 14 of those contacted said it was too soon to start dissecting January’s RNC chairmanship race.

“We have a very important election to win in November. Our total focus needs to be on that,” said Matt Borges, chairman of the Ohio GOP. “Anyone who is trying to run for party chair now should be automatically disqualified.”

Borges said he relayed those feelings to Priebus over the weekend and that the chairman agreed with his pronouncement.

Virginia Committeeman Morton Blackwell, who has tangled with Priebus over party rules and fights over limiting the power of the chairman, said Priebus had indicated in the past that he had no intention of pursuing a fourth term. North Carolina Committeewoman Ada Fisher noted his past comments as well and said, “I’ll take him at his word.”

Members who have spoken with Priebus about his interest in returning recall similar encounters: he stops short of declaring his absolute intention to run but hints strongly that he’s leaning toward a bid.

“His exact words were, ‘Can I count on you if I decide to do this one more time?’” Evans said, adding that he wouldn’t be surprised if Priebus pursued a fifth term as well to get a third crack at the White House, should Trump fall short.

Those supporting Priebus will be in the difficult position of explaining why a chairman who oversaw two failed presidential elections – despite dominant Congressional, gubernatorial and state legislative elections in 2014 – deserves another chance.

John Whitbeck, chairman of the Virginia GOP, said he’s “100 percent” supportive of another Priebus term and that it was important for Priebus to make his feelings known because many RNC members had simply presumed he wasn’t coming back – win or lose – in November.

“If we lose this election, it’s not going to be because of Reince Priebus,” he said.

An RNC spokesman declined to comment on the record for this story.

Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.