I'm not going to spend anytime dressing it up, their -20 net rating was historically bad. There obviously were many reasons why the pairing was set up to fail, and I won't go too much into the various mental aspects that the two dealt with. My theory is that while their collective skillset is more than what you'd want from your post players, but because they were never able to use their collective skillset to have a dramatic effect on offense, defense, or rebounding it severely negated their strengths. I've been watching a lot of their games together, and I want to try and apply some stats I found to the eye test.

Offense

Chemistry. That's going to be a reoccurring theme in this post. To keep it short, they had none and at times it seems as if they weren't interested in developing any. Personally, I think it could've gone much better. I don't want to appear biased, but as the offensively gifted of the two polar opposites, I put most of thse blame on Okafor. In fact, a lot of the issues with the pairing stem from Okafor, but that's what is expected between a rookie player and a sophomore with 3 years on an NBA team. I believe that with his dynamic offensive game he could've done more to make the game easier for Noel. The one thing keeping Okafor from truly being a great offensive player that will show up on in the offensive efficiency and the win column is the skill and desire to make others better. It's really the only trait that is present in every superstar throughout history. I was a little disappointed, but if for whatever reason they end up playing together again I wouldn't be so quick to say it wouldn't work.

So the first thing I noticed when I took a look at their shot charts was that they both took the most shots, and are the most accurate to the left of the hoop. This is one weird exception to my theory, the fact that they both score well there usually negates each others strength while they share the floor. Taking a look at Okafor's shot chart shows that his FG% all along the baseline is much better than Noel's other than their sweet spot.

When he wasn't fumbling the ball, Nerlens show a lot of impressive dribble moves if he was able to keep his handle together. Although I think his hands improved as far as catching and rebounding, the bad hands are still very apparent when he tries to make a move off the dribble.

One thing I've noticed it that Nerlens is one of those weird athletes who is ambidextrous, but not really. He shoots with his right hand, but loves to dribble and finish to his left. His ambidexterity clearly shows on defense, but it hasn't translated to his offense. Noel is most successful when the paint is clear and he can go left. That also happens to be Okafor's best spot to post up.

Here's where I begin to blame Okafor. Jahlil is shooting average to above-average from most spots inside the arc; for a rookie and a big man in general that's impressive. With his ability to score from just about anywhere, he could've made the game much easier for himself and Nerlens by conceding the one spot where Noel is an actual above average scorer. Not to say that he shouldn't post up where he's most successful, but to just alternate and be aware that you are clogging up your best teammate's best opportunity to score. I don't know if it was a lack of awareness or chemistry, but regularly both bigs would end up in that same spot on the floor at the same time. Both bigs need to learn where to be when the other is posting up and rolling to the rim. What was frustrating was that Jahlil was actually shooting 50% from mid range on the right along the baseline, which would be the realistically ideal spacing for the two.

The best example I can give of an ideal pairing of the two would be Griffin and Jordan. In a practical situation, Nerlens' shot chart would look like Jordan's. Then you take a look at Griffin's shot chart, and for the most part you could say that Okafor has about the same range as Griffin. They both have their hot and cold spots within the arc, and score at a above average % inside the paint. The one thing that has impressed me this season is Okafor's offense. I know it sounds like a redundant statement because I always evaluated his offense under the microscope of this is all he can do. Still, his game is much more advanced than I thought, at least at an individual scoring level. More specifically, his handle is much better than I thought. I truly feel like Okafor could've scored the ball from any position on the court, and the fact that he limited his game so much when he knew he had to share that space with Noel was not ideal.

Just even posting up on the other side of the rim gives Noel a good lane to his most efficient spot.

Not being knowledgeable about that makes me question what these guys were talking about on and off the court. There were also times where even though Jahlil hasn't shown a 3 point shot at all, whomever's guarding him will still play him close.

In the clip above Lopez stays with Okafor out on the perimeter, and Okafor makes an ill advised move and cuts to the basket as Noel is making his way there. Much like Ben Simmons, even without the range you still don't want to give up too much space or you risk them making a play. Obviously Ben is pass first and Okafor is score, and that sort of gets me excited as polar opposites they may play well together. (Although to be fair I thought the same thing of the Okafor-Noel pairing). Jahlil and Nerlens have to be willing to share that space and it was just apparent that they weren't and/or didn't know how.

Maybe Jahlil knew of Noel's notoriously bad hands, and was hesitant to pass to him. That was something I noticed with Noel's teammates last year. I think his hands have improved, even if it was marginally (only catching 1 more pass per game than last year, but has 6 more passes made with an increased usage/TOV%). However, he has shown time and time again he is able to catch lobs at a very high %. Most of the time when Jahlil (or Nerlens) was doubled, the extra man was sagging off a perimeter player who couldn't shoot. Nerlens' man rarely doubled, because soon as they did it would give Noel a lane to the hoop with two of his biggest obstacles guarding Jahlil; as well as allow Noel to get into offensive rebounding position. Unfortunately, it never really clicked for Okafor that Noel would be a good assist opportunity for him. I can't begin to count the amount of times where Noel's man did double, and Okafor missed what would've been an easy oop to instead take a bad shot.

So, if Okafor is going to go from great scorer to great offensive player he's going to have to incorporate more passing into his game. Because I always felt from watching Nerlens' rookie season was that if you could put at least an average NBA offense around him you'd be a competitive team. With the addition of Okafor I was hoping for that and more. Out of 89 guys who played 1200+ minutes (the minimum you'd give a guy who has a role on your team) 6'10+ in the league, Okafor is 36th in passes made at 31 a game. Even though that's still in the top half of qualifying big men, it's nowhere near enough for someone running offense out of the post. To put it in perspective, Noel is 13th on the same list. Guys who are creating offense from the post like Cousins (14th), Gasol Bros. (Marc 6th, Pau 2nd), and Love (9th) all are relatively high on that list. That list also includes big men who aren't scorers, but try to compensate with passing like Jordan, Gobert, Bogut, and obviously Nerlens.

I know a popular argument is that even when Okafor was passing the ball, they weren't taking care of scoring opportunities. Jah was 42nd out of the 89 bigs in potential assists at 2.7. That's way too small a number for someone to be running offense out of the post, especially considering his usage. Again just for perspective, Nerlens was 24th with 3.7 potential assists with the same teammates.

My biggest issue with the way Okafor played offense was that even though he could've been the biggest catalyst in ball movement with his scoring and passing ability, the ball was often stifled when he was on the floor. According to NBA Miner, the Sixers were 11th in passes per possession at 3.2, but dead last in secondary assists. There's no stat for potential secondary assists, so you could assume that due to the lack of perimeter players that stat was low. However, I'm my opinion some of the team's best shots came as secondary assists swinging the ball to the open shooter.

So in conclusion, on offense I believe they didn't work because of chemistry, and Okafor being a great scorer but not a great offensive player. What gives me hope is that they're both early in their development and should both progress as offensive players. For whatever reason, Okafor decided not to pass the ball. Still, when he did pass the ball you could see how his massive hands and good touch gave him great control with the ball. If he truly wants to be great, he'll have to make an effort to improve that part of his game. The ideal situation would be that Nerlens can make drastic improvements to his offensive game as far as ball control (more likely, less important) and outside shooting (less likely, more important). However, most guys don't drastically improve on their biggest weakness. So, if that pairing is going to work Nerlens usage will have to drop, and Okafor would have take more responsibility in getting him involved.

It would help both players; Jahlil in regards to assists/potential assists numbers and Noel reducing his usage. Noel's % of FG assisted went down marginally (67% to 66%), his usage went up (17% to 18.8%) and so did his TOV% (16.2% to 18.7%). Much like Tristan Thompson, who led the league this past season in offensive efficiency at 130, less is more. Thompson has become increasingly more efficient as his usage decreased, and he had better playmakers around him. His rookie year his offensive rating was just as bad as Noel's at 98. He had a 19% usage at the time, and turned it over 13%. That TOV% is still much less than Noel's has ever been, but Noel has and tries to do more than TT ever has offensively. As Thompson's usage decreased so did his TOV% and his efficiency skyrocketed.

It shouldn't be too controversial of a statement to agree with that Jahlil getting the ball more, and Noel getting the ball less would help the offense. It's just not for the reasons that may be implied, Okafor needs to do more when he has the ball, particularly get Noel involved so he doesn't feel obligated to create his own offense. If Okafor makes a consistent and valiant effort to include Noel in his offense, Noel will be engaged and cover a lot of Okafor's defensive issues. We'll head right into that now.

Defense

I'm going to be blunt, the reason they didn't work defensively is because Noel wasn't at the 5. Up until year 3 of The Process, the only thing that resembled something you'd see on a championship team is Nerlens' rim protection. The addition of Okafor immediately negated that. This is where I feel like the great divide in Sixers fans stems from; in a vacuum Okafor is impressive in his own ways and you'd have to admit he was a rookie and is far from his prime. Obviously, this is not ideal when you have a guy who's elite NBA skill is compromised by being on the perimeter. But let's dive a little deeper into that.

A lot of people assume that because Noel wasn't as impressive statistically as a PF compared to his rookie season at C (4.5 to 3.4). The difference in his DBPM, which account for all the other counting stats Noel has missed out on, has been used to form the narrative that he regressed. I just don't think that's true. His 3.4 DPM is 11th in the league of guys playing over 1200 minutes. That's insane for a player splitting time at his natural position with a center who is not good defensively, and also learning a new position. But let's put this to bed right now, Noel and Okafor did not switch positions because Noel couldn't guard PFs. Here's an excerpt from a fanpost I did a while ago about Noel's sophomore year:

First and foremost, you are what you defend. Out of the 3 centers, Nerlens is the only one that has shown he can competently defend PF. When on the perimeter, most of his assignments quickly pass the ball as options are limited over his length: If they choose to attack, he’s able to use his foot speed to stay in front of perimeter players: Usually PF are taller players and Nerlens is able to take advantage of their ball handling which due to their height is typically not tight, essentially making them almost completely ineffective when he’s guarding them: As shown in the Defense portion above, his close outs need to improve so he can continue to intimidate at the rim as a PF. He also needs to be attentive to his man and be cautious of screens: He needs to trust Okafor as a rim protector, and help on his man to secure the rebound just like Noel would expect if he were getting out of position to help. Although to be fair, Okafor hasn’t been a reliable rim protector:

Also at PF, he's dealing with a much more varied group of players, which highlights his talent of pick and roll defense. Being able to defend all types of pick and rolls while facing different types of players is key for the 4 spot:

I understand having Noel at PF, he's obviously the better equipped of the two to defend PF. I also thought they maybe they were still grooming Noel to start next to Embiid at 4. Still, it was very obvious at least to me as soon as the 2nd or 3rd time Noel had to recover for Okafor that they needed to switch. With Noel's ability to guard almost any PF, it was Jahlil's inability to do everything needed of a center defensively that ruined the pairing. To reiterate Brett Brown's sentiments, your position is who you guard. So the position switch had nothing to do with their offensive ability. Their roles stayed the same, and you could argue Okafor always had the better suited game for the PF. In my opinion, unless Jahlil dramatically improves his off ball defense and rebounding, the difference between him being a bench player and a great player is successfully moving to the PF.

The one redeeming quality in Okafor's defensive game is his one on one defense. Although at times he does not know what to do with his hands. (Check out the first clip in that series)

He has shown excellent footwork at times in one on one situations. As the center, his pick and roll defense was essentially useless. He had to sag off so much so that he'd be in position to cut off his man rolling to the rim, and if you're the ball handler in that PnR you're taking that open shot. As the PF, he wouldn't be in charge of protecting the rim, and would have Noel for weakside help if he got beat by either option in the pick and roll. Okafor's rim protection isn't bad at all when he's in position to protect the rim mostly due to his size; so defending the pick and roll is probably his top priority in terms of development.

Here you see Okafor moving his feet pretty well, rotating, and switching onto a bunch of guys. It's not the best technique just yet, but this is the effort level he's going to have to bring. He doesn't manage to compromise the defense, as anytime he was beat Noel was there to help. In the end, they gave up a bucket, but that just proves that defensive stats can be tricky. They played good, active defense but gave up a last second bucket when no one rotated to the paint after Okafor and Noel had to go out into the perimeter.

With Okafor's current limitations, he's going to have to give it 100% all the time to be a passable defender. That means recognizing and closing out on his rotations, moving his feet on the pick and roll, and getting off the floor for defense (and rebounds). At his conditioning level in the beginning of the season, this level of effort on the defensive end would make his offensive game less effective. The combination of his leaner frame, plus the influx of playmakers should make it easier for him to maintain an acceptable level of effort on both ends. He creates a good amount of his own offense (41% FG assisted), and energy wise would be better off allowing a playmaker to get him easy buckets. You could see towards the end of the season his conditioning was improved, but he still has a long way to go in terms of applying proper defensive techniques to make his effort translate to good defense.

Also, what should be noted is the errors committed by their teammates which are out of their control like in this clip:

When Noel attacked the pick and roll, Hollis Thompson was sagging way too far off his man. Usually he would be the guy that'd show and try to get back if they kick it out, but Okafor was right there. Over helping, and several other mistakes completely negate the effectiveness of playing two bigs at times. I don't know if the team just doesn't trust Okafor as the help, it's scheme, or low IQ/stat chasing but overall the quality of the team collectively had a good bit to do with the efficiency.

In conclusion, with the defense to me there really is a set of rules in place rather than see what develops like on offense; Noel should play his natural position, and Okafor needs to be able to defend PF. Okafor being able to successfully defending the many differents types of PF he'll have to is hard to assume. Regardless, with the help of a rim protector behind him he'll be in the least detrimental position he could be in to the overall team defense. Jahlil's defensive improvement is huge for his partnership with any of the possible big men pairings (Embiid, Simmons, Saric).

Rebounding

This is probably their most frustrating weakness together. Not so much that neither of them are above average rebounders, but that they could've been much more successful working as a team to secure rebounds. If you take a look at the best rebounding 2 man line-ups, measured by rebound %, there are two observations to be made from the top 10 in DREB%:

1) It includes two of the widely considered successful big men pairings (Love and Thompson, Duncan and Aldridge)

2) Their rebounding obviously has a great effect on their teammates rebounding as their teammates round out the remaining top 10 (and a random appearance from Lin and Kaminsky)

So, you can conclude that having two bigs on who can rebound successfully is the quickest way to becoming dominant on the boards. This trend is also reflected when looking at overall rebound %.With the combined rebounding abilities of Ibaka, Adams, Kanter, Durant, Westbrook, etc they make up the entire top 10; with the Love-Thompson combo coming in at 11th. The Sixers have some pretty decent rebounders at spots other than 4-5, and will be adding even more soon. Noel and Okafor's inability to assert themselves on glass cost them what should've been board dominance.

Stats aside, in my opinion they would've been much more successful at rebounding if they worked together. You'd think that with Noel obviously having the leaping ability to secure rebounds at their highest point, and Okafor having the build to keep the bigger guys off the glass they would work perfectly together. Unfortunately, and I know rebounds/stats are important for bigs, but often they fought each other for boards and didn't make an attempt to box out. At times they did and it was successful, but it was not stressed that it would be in their best interest to always do that. Of course, in this scenario Okafor would be conceding a lot of rebounds to Noel, but if it's for the good of the team it should've been better implemented.

Okafor's DR% w/ Noel 15.4%, w/o 19.5%

Noel's DR% w/ Okafor 24.3, w/o 20.8%

According to stats provided by our very own xsago (let me know if they need to be updated), Noel's DR% with Okafor at 24.3 would have him as the 9th out of all PFs in the league. In these clips you can see how he's much noticeably a better rebounder as the PF, even though he's better at defending the 5. On offense and defense you can see how his rare advantage in both size and athleticism allows him to take advantage of PFs. So, there is evidence that this is how it should be, and if Okafor was able to improve his DR% while on the floor with Noel it would have that dominant effect on glass you want from having two traditional bigs on the floor.

One part of Okafor's game that has shown promise in rebounding is his offensive boards. Of course this would be the part of rebounding he'd shown signs in soonest, but he's pretty good if he's both good in his box out technique and showing max effort. He's looked pretty unmotivated at times, but it's hard to tell if it's effort or conditioning. He grabbed double digit rebounds 12 times out of 53 games (22%). In comparison, Noel has 18 in his 67 games (26%). To be fair, Noel has several more 9 and 8 rebound game than Okafor. Let's take a look at all rebounds in Okafor's career high 17 rebound game.

1. First rebound was a weird one, but being in the right place is a good thing too I'd say.

2. Second rebound was actually the second of two possible rebounding chances. Both created by defense.

3. Another free rebound, lucky bounce. C's average 50% or so of these a game so it's just part of fattening up that stat.

4. Some sneaky good PnR defense from Okafor in this clip, of course the PnR duo he was going up against isn't one of the best. Another uncontested board, not a good box out technique here but Lopez isn't giving him any resistance. He's a big guy so he doesn't need that great a technique to keep guys boxed out.

5. Lopez is boxed out by Nerlens and Jahlil can secure. Nerlens almost tries to secure it before realizing "same", Jahlil needs to communicate that he has the rebound or risk them both going for it and turning it over.

6. Good timing, didn't give time to contest, and snatched it up with one hand like a golf ball. Lowkey impressive rebound.

7. Has an honest knack for offensive rebounding. Can control boards with his finger tips, and is creative at securing offensive rebounds. Obviously, really bad offensive sequence for Okafor all throughout this clip however.

8. Those offensive rebounds though.

9. Freebie

10. Picking up some more loose change. Even in his offensive rebounding, it's this finger tip control that makes you wonder what kinds of passes Simmons and Okafor could complete.

11. FT Freebie

12. Good leverage of body to tap ball to teammate. He needs to take advantage of his size more, Robinson is an active rebounder who was suppressed under Jahlil.

13. 2 rebounding chances created from defense. Okafor again just in the right place.

14. Great use of his body to create space, great effort all around.

15. Freebie

16. Another good offensive board

17. Another rebound opportunity from defense

To me, this game encapsulated my 3 observations about Okafor's rebounding:

1. As evidenced by these clips about half of Jahlil's rebounds are free, which matches up with the stats on Nylon Calculus about free rebound average. That means 3-4 of his 7 rebounds a game were free. Then you have to take into account how many rebounding opportunities he got from Nerlens' defense. It's expected for the big to contest/block and secure the rebound all in one possession, but when you have two bigs you can split those task up and be more effective. However, rarely was this taken advantage of by either big.

2. Jahlil's two rebounding traits i'd consider elite already would be his size and hands. He needs to improve his box out technique to truly take advantage of them, but it's very possible he could be a good rebounder. He'd just have to really improve his rebound IQ for positioning, and give consistent effort. Where I've seen the most improvement with Noel's hands has been his rebounding. Which is a great sign for Okafor.

According to Nylon Calculus' detailed rebounding stats, Nerlens secured 41.4% of all the rebounds he had to fight for*. His effort, technique, and hands have all improved and it shows here. Currently, Okafor is at 35.1%, which objectively is awful for a center. For perspective, the ideal win % for anyone would be 50%+. There are obvious differences in worth of rebounds when you consider who you're fighting for the rebound, so it's safe to assume that center reb % is the most important. The highest reb % of a center is Drummond at 55%. Around Nerlens' 41% are big men John Henson, Rudy Gobert, Robin Lopez, Derrick Williams and Alex Len. The closest big men to Jahlil's % are Roy Hibbert, Mirza Teletovic, and Aron Baynes.

Fortunately, there is room for optimism as Nerlens' rookie season was at an abysmal 29.5%. Their issues with rebounding are obviously different, and Nerlens had an unusually high jump that I credit to his improved technique. Still, there is room for improvement with Okafor and he's not starting out as bad as perceived.

3. His relative strength is offensive rebounding. Right now he's at 8.1 ORR, but if he decides to get his stats and save energy for boards on the offensive end and concede boards to better options while boxing out defensively, I can see him being an above average offensive rebounder.

So finally, like basically every criticism I've had for the two, chemistry, experience, and their assumed improvement would fix their current issues rebounding.They both need to improve as rebounding individually, but working together regardless of their individual skill level would be beneficial to the team.

So do I think they can play together? Not if they don't change the way they play completely. Ideally, they fit together perfectly if the chemistry was there. Hinkie said right before he "resigned" that he was high on the fit of Okafor and Noel. You could argue they could, but again it'd have to come with improvements in chemistry, individual skill, and the implied experience needed to do all that. If time were on their side I know I'd be more than ok with giving it another try under different circumstances. The teammates they were surrounded with were not ideal to their development of skill or chemistry. Also, they've basically been in competition for a spot next to Joel the entire year so there was no incentive to develop chemistry.

If all these things are improved on, I could see them having a dynamic effect on the game together. If you want to see a game where it's sort of realized, go rewatch the home game vs the Trailblazers. Bulldozing a 2nd round playoff team with Noel leading the charge defensively and Okafor offensively is what you hope for when putting the two together. (Also another interesting thing about that game was that the starting line up which was pretty successful including non-shooter JaKarr Sampson, and you can kind of project how Ben would do in a line up with two other traditional bigs)

*all unsourced stats from basketball-reference.com

*Some of Nylon Calculus stats are either incomplete or less detailed than others because of Sports VU going down apparently. All of their stats are good up until 1/25/16