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The Calgary-Foothills byelection is needed because of then-premier Jim Prentice’s resignation of the seat on election night, as his PC government went down to defeat at the hand of Rachel Notley’s NDP on May 5.

Prentice was only first elected as the Calgary-Foothills MLA in a byelection in October of last year, replacing PC MLA Len Webber.

Maggi said voter fatigue could be an issue in the riding, with residents going to the polls for the third time in just over 10 months, and a federal election campaign also underway.

Turnout is usually low in byelections and could be even worse this time around because of the circumstance, he said.

The poll shows Hawkesworth, a former MLA and alderman, has the highest percentage of supporters who are certain to vote, at 27 per cent. However, over half of Panda’s backers say they are certain or likely to vote.

Maggi said there are a number of factors unfolding in the race. The PCs have won Calgary-Foothills in every election since it was created in 1971, but the Tories must deal with the fallout from Prentice’s abrupt resignation, he noted.

The NDP faces both the headaches that come from governing, with Alberta stuck in an economic slump due to low oil prices, as well as the potential impact of the federal NDP’s actions in the national campaign.

That gives Wildrose the best chance of winning the riding, but also the most to lose, said Maggi.

“I think they’re going to have an advantage … probably their supporters are going to be more likely to have that motivation to get out,” he said.