Thought you guys might be interested in the deep-dive I did today!

The victor of my deep-dive player poll was none other than the Pacers sophomore Center Myles Turner. The 21-year-old out of Texas has been a personal favorite of mine since his lone freshman year in college, and I thought Indiana got a steal at pick #11. He's shaping up to be the king of the castle in Indiana in the wake of Paul George's departure to Oklahoma City. Today, I want to investigate what he brings to the table, and how I project him going forward.

If you want to read any of my previous player investigations, go HERE.

Let's start off basic:

Of all the minutes the Pacers played during the 2016-17 regular season, Turner was on the floor for 63% of them. While he was on the floor, the Pacers outscored the opponent by 142 points. Hypothetically, if Turner played the entire game (48 minutes), the Pacers, on average, would be 2.7 points better than their opponent.

Turner duplicated his rookie year numbers, but did so in twice as many minutes, showing that the increased volume didn't hurt his production. Not only that, but he seems to be developing a three-point-shot, that may become a bigger part of his game. Averaging 16.6 points/8.3 rebounds/2.4 blocks on 51% shooting as a 20-year-old is impressive. He also limits turnovers and gets a fair number of steals, as well as hitting a tremendous 80% of his free throws, while standing at a nimble 6-11.

Turner is a tried-and-true pick-and-pop big man. He took 42.2% of his shots from mid-range in 2016-17, which is one of the highest frequencies in the NBA. The analytics revolution has curbed the tendency to take these kinds of shots, and that leaves Turner in a sort of purgatory, deciding whether to eschew the mid-range for more 3's, or keep bolstering his strength in this area, ala LaMarcus Aldridge. The good news for Turner is that he hit nearly 44% of his attempts from mid-range, which is above league average. In essence, he's really good at something most teams deem bad. I think we will see him bump his % of FGA from 3 from 13% to around 20% next season, which should improve his overall efficiency. If he gets to 60 TS%, we're talking about a borderline elite offensive Center.

His Defensive BPM, which is a noisy statistic, but less so for Centers, is really high, considering the number of blocks and steals he generates. We'll take a look at this in the Film Study segment.

From looking at his shot chart, it's clear that Turner prefers shooting from the middle of the floor. Many of his pick-and-pop attempts got him 16-18 foot shots just beyond the free throw line extended. I would like to see him shoot more corner 3's, where only 11% of his three-point-attempts came from last season.

Our next visual is from talented NBA Data guru Jacob Goldstein (who will appear on next podcast) made a shot-making efficiency metric, that dates back to 1979. It predicts someone's expected TS%, and then looks at what they actually made, generating percentiles that show you someone's ability to score, taking volume and efficiency with equal consideration.

Moving on up! Turner was nearly in the 80-percentile in shot-making efficiency, taking shots where'd you expect a 56 TS% and actually converting at a 58 TS%. I would not be the least bit surprised if he gets near the 90% threshold next season -- if he's asked to take on a considerably higher volume, this will make his expected TS% lower, but I think he won't drop off much in terms of actual production. He's only getting better.

Turner appeared as the Center in their Pacers 7-most-common lineups last season. The good, and perhaps surprising news, is that 5 of the 7 were positive. You may say "Well, don't forget about Paul George." The one that was missing Paul George actually was the second-best lineup the Pacers used last year, with a 0.13 net positive differential. The lineups that suffered the most usually featured Monta Ellis.

Turner played 92% at the 5, and the other 8% at the PF slot. Most of the time at the 4 was when he was paired with Kevin Seraphin, who was the de-facto Center since he's 290 pounds and lumbering, but Turner still played more of the rim-protector role in these lineups. He played better at the 5, most likely due to the lineup construction around him. I would be interested to see him paired up with another effective big, with his ability to play inside-and-outside, I think he would make for an interesting member of a twin-tower duo.

If you don't know from the other player investigations, I created a statistic that captures the effectiveness of contributions that don't hit the box score. The updated formula uses a Bayesian estimation, correlated to RAPM.

Per 36: (Screen Assists / 2) + (Deflections) + (Inverse Defensive FG% plus-minus /1.25) + (Drawn Charges) + (Loose Balls Recovered) + (Contested Shots) + (Hockey Assists * 2.25) + (RAPM / 3)



Turner ranks 35th out of 280 qualified players, he is top-tier. (If you're like me, I can never get off Jason Terry on this list).

Turner is an elite rim protector, gets a good number of deflections, is a good screener, contests a ton of shots, and doesn't really have a single hole in his game. I would not be surprised for him to move into the top 20 in the uncaptured box statistic within a few years.

To help you understand what you're looking at with this table from NBA Math. Holmes is orange and Turner is pink.

Value Added is calculated by finding the difference between individual PPP and the league-average PPP for that play type, then multiplying by the number of possessions used (Indiv. PPP - Lg. Avg PPP) * (Poss.). It indicates the value added on offense or saved on defense provided by that player, as compared to a league-average contributor filling that same role.

I looked at a player who plays almost an identical role to Turner, and that is Sixers backup-big Richaun Holmes. Their play type frequencies are mirrors of each other, so I wanted to juxtapose his effectiveness in different play types with a player Sixers fans know well. As we can see, Turner is a rare menace in transition from the Center position, he really has elite mobility. A point of concern: his Pick-and-Roll, Roll man Value Added was negative, this is inexcusable for a guy with his mobility and touch. If he wants to become the elite offensive center I think he can be, he needs to be vastly better in this area.

DeAndre Jordan is blue, Turner is pink.

His defensive play-type frequency matches up almost exactly with Derrick Favors, but I wanted to pick a player whom more people are familiar with their defensive abilities. As we can see, Turner gets bullied on the block, with a large negative value in defending post-ups. He was only 20-years-old and still has a relatively slender frame, so I expect this to improve over the next few seasons. He was stellar guarding the Pick-and-Roll and in Isolation, utilizing his elite lateral movement while sporting a 7-5 wingspan.

Film Study

My goal with the film studies, is to watch a bunch of film, and then pick one or two clips that are microcosms of their overall play style, trying my darndest to avoid cherry-picking clips, and really encapsulate their full games in as few clips as possible, in the interest of saving everyone's time, including my own.

Turner is a pick and pop artist, with a lightning quick release and solid mechanics

He matches this form from outside

Quick movements in post, can finish in a variety of ways, with touch or power. Gotta love it Defense He has good instincts as a rim-protector, combining great timing with a long wingspan, and decent ups

I'll leave you with this:

Pros:

Terrific touch on mid-range shots

Very Mobile at 6-11

Great Instincts as Rim-Protector

Seems to have a high basketball IQ

Cons:

Takes too many mid-range shots for modern NBA

Rebounding is improving, but still a little weak (granted he was only 20)

Needs to improve guarding post-ups, putting on strength

Gets a little trigger-happy going for blocks

Willing passer, but could improve as a high-post facilitator

Hope you learned a little something in this Myles Turner deep-dive investigation!







