Opinion: Who has the most to lose?

Labour Deputy Leader WillShakespeare99 writes for The Guardian.

Prime Minister Leafy_Emerald’s political future rides on these election results.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of The Guardian.

The campaign is over, and now the waiting begins. As the country anticipates the counting of millions of ballot papers, candidates in the 50 constituencies that will be critical in deciding who the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom might be wait nervously. Their fate has now been decided, becoming clear on Sunday night, with the voice of the British people likely being muddled, confused, and all over the place. Various polls and predictions suggest this will be one of the most patchy election results in recent years, with strong gains predicted for once minor parties like the LPUK and the Classical Liberals, at the expense of heavy losses for Labour and the Conservatives, and with the picture only yet more muddled as a result of the emergence of a few new parties who look set to enter the House of Commons for the very first time.



In such a messy, unpredictable election, it is highly likely that there will be some big losers, with old, established leaders being usurped and overshadowed by a coming insurgency. For some leaders, this election is absolutely critical. And perhaps for none more so than Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader /u/Leafy_Emerald. Mr Emerald has been Prime Minister since the resignation of his predecessor, /u/DrCaesarMD, earlier this year. If he remains in Number 10 after this election, and forms a Government of any makeup other than Conservative-only, he will break the record for the number of different ministries led by a PM (the previous maximum being 3).



However, with the national Tory campaign widely criticised, and the same for many local campaigns, if the Conservatives are struggling to remain as the largest Government party – with some predictions suggesting they may be a secondary part to a Liberal Democrat led Government – then you can put safe money on Leafy_Emerald’s swift departure. The Tories are now fairly used to holding the keys to Number 10, and anything less would be seen as embarrassing, particularly after their successes in passing the Budget with just 30 seats in Parliament – 21 short of a majority – among other achievements this term. Even if the Tories maintain their position as the largest party, but fail to form a Government in support of Emerald’s continued Premiership, he will likely find himself, not just without any choice but to resign, but likely willing to. If that were to occur, they would most probably find themselves as the Official Opposition to a Liberty-Bloc, or otherwise, Government, for the first time in a year and a half. That a side, most polling still suggests the party will maintain their status as the largest in the House of Commons, with a much reduced plurality. Whether this is enough for Leafy to cling on as PM remains to be seen. It’s safe to say that Prime Minister Leafy_Emerald’s political future rides on these election results, more so than any other leader in the country right now.



Of course, any losses experienced by the Conservatives will look like the 1983 Thatcher landslide in comparison to the predicted Labour losses, with around half of their seats set to fall according to some projections. That being said, their leader, /u/ElliottC99, does not have a huge amount to lose, other than his position as Leader of the Opposition and some influence in Parliament. He is a newly elected leader, with a lot of good will behind him, having won the leadership poll with a convincing majority. This is a critical reason why, no matter how many losses Labour makes, he is safe. But the most important factor behind this is that any losses Labour makes are not a result of his leadership, but were destined before he took over, because of the party’s decision to pull out of Government. Many within Labour had conceded that there would be a blood letting long before their new leader took the reins, taking a lot of pressure off of his shoulders.



In fact, an energetic national effort and some strong local campaigns may have effectively controlled the damage to Labour. Whether that is the case or not, will only become clear on Sunday night, but it does buy Mr C99 some significant leeway to remain as party leader. The attitude among members seems to be that he should be the leader during the next term, leading a long term recovery effort. That will be his true test, rather than these results. Instead, the question facing him this weekend is just how well he was able to limit the potential implosion for now.



The Greens are also in trouble, with a recent YouGov prediction giving them just 2 constituency seats. It is highly likely that, unless Labour holds up steady and can offer them a new Official Opposition coalition, they will be heading straight back to Unofficial Opposition. That being said, I don’t believe this will mean anything for the party’s leader, /u/DF44, the former Speaker of the House of Commons, who attracts praise for his good leadership, and who, having recently taken over a demoralised party, will not receive much of the blame.



But whilst Labour and the Greens were likely bracing for heavy losses at the start of the campaign, and the Tories probably knew the bubble had to burst some time, one party that had a surge of momentum going in to this election was the Scottish National Party, and boy does that seem far away now. Having fielded an identical manifesto in this election as in March, the party was already gripped by accusations of laziness. But now, it seems, their leader, /u/daringphilosopher, has been caught releasing identical press releases, transcripts and summaries of his campaign events as he has done in previous elections. This revelation could ruin his chances in Highlands and Grampian. The SNP were leading in 3 of 4 Scottish constituencies, but these scandals have prompted a feeling of backward momentum that could play against them, inevitably bringing down Mr philosopher, who must bear the burdens of these errors.



But of course, where there are losers, there are winners – specifically three big winners: /u/TheNoHeart, /u/CDocwra, /u/Friedmanite. The Liberal Alliance (and extended Liberty Bloc) leaders look set to make strong gains across the country, with a purple surge of LPUK members widely predicted. It is entirely possible that one of these three could be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, leading what could be the UK’s most liberal Government since the Second World War, which will likely bring rail privatisation, extensive criminal justice reform, and further marketisation and outsourcing in the NHS, with support for private healthcare as a way of reducing the burden of healthcare on the public finances – extremely significant changes.



But all of this is mere speculation. The British public have now spoken, and their voice will be heard, in time, and will have some serious repercussions for politicians, and public policy, for years to come. If, indeed, the Tories cannot lead any more, pushed out by the Liberal Alliance, it would end an extraordinary period of continued Government which leaves a highly important legacy. The new Parliament, and the new Britain it brings in, could be a very unfamiliar place.

Written by WillShakespeare99 for the Guardian.