MOBILE, Alabama – Results for the city's hotly contested mayoral election will not begin trickling in until well after the polls close this evening, but we can get some early clues as to how the vote may play out.

Pay close attention to a handful of key precincts. They should foretell the outcome.

Supermajority black precincts

Mobile has seven precincts where black people make up more than 95 percent of the registered voters: Figures Park Community Center, Mae Eanes School, Taylor Park Community Center, Bishop State Community College, Thomas Sullivan Community Center, Dotch Community Center and Plateau Community Center.

It is a virtual given that Mayor Sam Jones will run up large victory margins in these areas, which include his home precinct. The question is how large will the overall vote be?

With white and black voters almost evenly split citywide, turnout will be crucial. If the turnout rate in these precincts meets or exceeds the citywide average, it likely is a sign that Jones has the advantage. If, however, turnout trails the citywide average, it could portend a white surge might put challenger Sandy Stimpson over the top.

Even with a big white turnout, Stimpson almost certainly will need some black votes to win the race. It would be a good sign for him if he could hold Jones to under 90 percent in these seven precincts.

White and affluent

These precincts are almost mirror images of the previous seven: E.R. Dickson Elementary School, Mobile Museum of Art, First Independent Methodist Church, Airport Boulevard Baptist Church, Kate Shepard School and Our Savior Catholic Church. White voters comprise more than 80 percent of the total of each one of these wards.

These also are among the city’s wealthiest neighborhoods. All six of these polling locations sit within census tracts where the household median income exceeds $50,000, above the citywide average of $38,240.

To win the election, Stimpson likely will have to both maximize his share of the vote in these locations and hope that the turnout exceeds the majority-black areas. If turnout is merely even or below the average citywide, it likely signals a bad night for Stimpson.

Eight years ago in his runoff victory against then-City Councilman John Peavy, Jones consistently scored percentages that were 10 points or more higher than the black percentages in majority-white precincts. That translated into a solid victory citywide.

Now, the black share of registered voters is 6 points higher than it was then. That means Jones could afford to lose most of his white support from 2005 and still prevail, as long as he wins the same percent of the black vote and there is not gap in turnout between the races.

The split precincts

Three precincts have slim pluralities of white voters: Riverside Church of Nazarene (52 percent), Spring Hill Avenue Community Center (49.8 percent) and Pleasant Valley United Methodist Church (49.1 percent). Whites are less than 50 percent in two of those polling stations but still outnumber blacks because other minorities make up the rest of the total.

In 2005, Jones beat Peavey in two majority-white precincts. If Stimpson sweeps them, it will be another sign that Jones is having trouble attracting white votes.

Absentee ballots

The absentee ballots are the potential wild card of this campaign – both because of the sheer number that have been submitted and because of reports that the U.S. Postal Inspection Service is investigating possible fraud.

The City Clerk’s Office reported on Friday that more than 3,000 absentee ballots had been cast, a record for a municipal contest in Mobile.

Often, the candidate who wins the absentee ballot vote ends up winning the election. In an extremely close election, these early ballots could decide the contest.

And if the absentee vote turns out to be significantly more lopsided than the vote totals from the polling booths? Let the voter fraud accusations begin.