John Cole:

Why is it that all the people who claim to be the base turn out to be self-serving, self-promoting jackasses who have very narrow agendas and love to inform us that if the Obama administration does just what they want them to do right when they want them to do it, they will “keep the base.” Otherwise, if they don’t fulfill their agenda right then and there, they will “lose the base.” And strategically, it always works out so well- see demanding the public option be put in the Senate Bill and shutting down the Snowe negotiations.

John is a friend, so I say this with genuine respect -- yes, the Democrats have a base problem. And no, it's not because of Ed Schultz, me, Jane Hamsher, or anyone else. Let's be real, we're just not that powerful.

Daily Kos gets about 2 million unique visitors per month, plus maybe a couple more million reading other progressive blogs. Ed (and Olbermann and Maddow) probably get that many watching their shows every month. There's overlap, so let's say 3-5 million progressives reading blogs and watching MSNBC's prime time lineup -- a pittance compared to the 16 million or so that listen to Limbaugh every week, and the 2-4 million that watch Bill O'Reilly and Glenn Beck every night. Huffington Post is getting about 16 million unique monthly visitors these days, but 80 percent of that is entertainment, and the other 20 percent is split among business, sports, living, style, green, technology and finally politics.

Point is, our media machine is tiny. We don't have the power to move our base around.

And heck, we don't even reach much of our base. 18-29 year-olds, a key component of the Democratic base, don't read blogs or watch MSNBC. Neither do African Americans or Latinos, at least in significant numbers. Yet look at these voter intensity numbers:

In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote? Def/Prob Not Likely/Won't Dem 54 43

GOP 82 17 White 67 32

Black 26 55

Latino 38 51

18-29 38 53



As you can see, our base is demoralized and tuned out, and plan on sitting out the 2010 elections at rates that will absolutely fuck us if they don't improve by November.

But again, African Americans, Latinos, and young voters aren't tuning out because we failed to build bipartisan concensus with Olympia Snowe, or because MSNBC or the blogs made them angry. Making such claims is patently absurd. They're tuning out because we wasted 2009 "negotiating" with bad faith actors like Snowe and Mike Enzi. The tools were available to quickly pass a health care bill, yet Democrats were too incompetent to do so. And on issue after issue, they've proven completely ineffective.

THAT's why the base is sitting things out. They don't need blogs or MSNBC to tell them that Democrats can't govern. They already knew that Republicans don't want to govern, but the Democrats were supposed to be different. And they are, they want to govern, but they can't. And the voters that worked their asses off to give Democrats the White House and super majorities in Congress are now realizing that it was all for nothing. That all that talk about hope and change was cynical bullshit designed to motivate them. It worked once, but that crowd is learning the art of political cynicism, and it ain't pretty.

Cole may want to lash out at prominent progressives who have tried to prod our Democratic majorities in the right direction, and they certainly offer a tempting and easy target. But the reality is that voters demanded accomplishments, and on the big items, the Democrats have mostly failed. They weren't hired to tinker around the edges. They were hired to enact transformative "change". And while Cole and others like him might wish that progressives banded together to cheer along bullshit negotiations with Snowe and Enzi and repeated capitulations to an irrelevant minority and its corporatist allies in the Democratic Party, fact is, voters aren't that stupid. All the neocon cheerleading in the world didn't prevent Americans from realizing that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had been completely botched. Canned cheering for this health care bill wouldn't have saved it from similar sentiment.

Those prominent progressives have, in effect, been canaries in the coal mine -- warning of the disengagement and alienation among base voters we now see so clearly in the polling.

It would be absurd to blame those canaries for any deadly gas leaking into mine shafts.