The polls are closed for the 2019 European Parliament elections! Turnout is estimated to have been the highest in 20 years, bucking the trend towards declining voter numbers in EU elections. Early results have already been released, projecting that the main centre-right and centre-left blocs in the European Parliament will lose their combined majority, while Liberals and Green parties are predicted to have done very well. Eurosceptic and nationalist parties surged in the UK, Italy, and France. However, there was no great “eurosceptic wave”, with populist parties performing mostly as expected (and in some cases doing worse).

Pundits predict the most likely outcome is the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) working in cooperation with the centre-left Socialists & Democrats, joined by the liberal ALDE group and the Greens. According to the Spitzenkandidaten (“lead candidate”) process, the EPP received the most votes and would therefore expect their candidate, Manfred Weber, to become the next President of the European Commission. However, the heads of EU Member States (and France’s Emmanuel Macron in particular) are reportedly unhappy with the Spitzenkandidaten process, and are keen to restore the power to choose the Commission’s next top boss to national heads of state and government in the European Council.

What happens next? The negotiations over forming new groups in the European Parliament have already begun (a process complicated by the fact that British MEPs may be leaving the Parliament en masse after Brexit), with talk of a new Eurosceptic grouping being created. The next several months will be taken up by the battle over the formation of a new European Commission, with the European Council proposing a candidate for European Commission President (taking into account the result of the elections) but with the European Parliament getting a final veto. If the Parliament vetoes (or threatens to veto) the Council’s choice, then we could be heading for a bust-up between the institutions. There was also disagreement over the Spitzenkandidaten process after the 2014 European elections, with the European Council ultimately giving in because the risks of leaving the post unfilled were deemed too great.

Assuming we get a president-elect of the Commission in the next month or so, the next step will be agreeing a new Commission. Each EU Member State (working with the new president-elect) gets to nominate a commissioner, and there will be a series of public hearings in the European Parliament. The Parliament cannot veto individual commissioners, though it can veto the entire Commission (and, in practice, candidates usually withdraw after an awkward hearing). In theory, we should have a new Commission in place by November.

Are you happy with the EU election results? What can we expect next after the European Parliament elections? Let us know your thoughts and comments in the form below and we’ll take them to policymakers and experts for their reactions!

IMAGE CREDITS: (c) BigStock – vverve