With a little over a month left in the NCAA basketball season, it’s time to start really tracking how Ohio State is shaping up to make the tournament. I will also be doing this for the women’s basketball team, and possibly the hockey teams as well. (The women’s hockey bubble, in particular, can be an incredibly tight race, and the men’s hockey team currently holds down the very last spot in the field).

As for men’s basketball, though, are the Buckeyes really in any trouble at all?

The short answer is a very firm no.

Ohio State has a losing record in the Big Ten, which is never a good sign for at-large bids. However, this year’s Big Ten is likely the deepest league in men’s basketball history, and should put 11 or 12 teams in the tournament. The Buckeyes only have two conference home losses, and played a strong nonconference schedule that included good wins over Cincinnati, Villanova, Kentucky, and a still-healthy North Carolina team.

The selection committee always claims not to look at a team’s conference record. And while history belies that somewhat, it is still very true, especially in cases like Ohio State’s. The Buckeyes might be 5-7 in the Big Ten, but they currently sit at No. 13 in BPI and No. 11 in KenPom. Those are not numbers that put a team on the bubble. Heck, those are numbers that earn a very high seed.

Even with the rough conference record, everyone recognizes Ohio State’s quality of resume. USAToday’s own bracketology, for example, has the Buckeyes as a six seed. ESPN has them on the seven-line. Those aren’t spots that should worry any team. Still, it would behoove the Buckeyes not to make that conference record look too ugly when all is said and done.

More importantly, even with an ugly conference record, the fact is that none of the Big Ten losses are bad losses. 11 of the conference’s teams are in the Top 40 of the NET rankings, which is what the NCAA looks at when determining resume quality. Indiana is also a very respectable No. 61. The only two Big Ten teams with poor rankings are Northwestern and Nebraska. Any Big Ten team that avoids losses to those two will have a strong tournament resume.

For the Buckeyes, that means things are pretty simple.

Beat Nebraska on February 27th and win two more Big Ten games, and the Ohio State should be safe. Win any more than that and we’re looking at a lock.

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