Stephen Harper may be on the verge of pulling off a near-miracle by winning the coming federal election.

If he does, it will be one of the most stunning political turnarounds in modern federal politics.

Indeed, considered a sure loser barely a week ago by some pundits, Harper may be easily re-elected as prime minister on Oct. 19, albeit with a minority government.

Even Harper loyalists admit it’s been a truly bad year for Harper, who is widely disliked by two of every three Canadians.

It’s been especially horrid since the official start in early July of the election, from the scandal oozing from the Mike Duffy affair to the country being declared in a recession, to his muzzling of all Conservative candidates, dumping some others and dismissing his top election manager from his campaign plane.

And then there was Harper’s cool response to the plight of Syrian and Iraqi refugees, especially after the iconic photo appeared around the world of the body of 3-year-old Alan Kurdi washed ashore on a Mediterranean beach.

But despite the tidal wave of negative news, Harper remains surprisingly strong in national polls, with one survey in recent days actually showing the Conservatives rebounding from third place and overtaking the NDP for first place, with the Liberals a close third.

Also, a new projection last week by poll aggregator ThreeHundredEight.com had the Tories rebounding to win 116 seats, the NDP getting 115 and the Liberals 106. In Ontario, the projection was Liberals with 51 seats, Tories 50 seats and the NDP 20 seats.

Practically no one saw this coming.

How has Harper stopped the slide and even reversed the trend?

He has done it by focusing on what he sees as threats to our economy, threats of terrorism on our soil and threats of terrorists amidst the throngs of Syrian refugees. All of this appeals to his hard-core Conservative base, which seemingly would stick with him through almost every nightmare imaginable, and to other Canadians who worry about terrorism and prefer a more closed society in Canada.

Like no other political leader before him, Harper fully understands just how big the gap is between these conservative voters and the progressives in Canada — and he plays on it.

Frank Graves, president of EKOS Research Associates, who has studied the growing trend toward two Canadas, believes Harper has upped the emotional engagement levels of Conservative voters with the goal of having them turn up on voting day. Harper has achieved this by catering to fears — real or imagined — of terrorists in our midst and of the economy going into the toilet if the NDP or Liberals are in control.

It’s a strategy that’s working.

On the economy, even though Canada is in a recession, a Nanos Research poll conducted last week found Harper is the leader voters trust the most to manage the economy. Harper is backed on this issue with 31 per cent, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair with 28 per cent and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau with 26 per cent.

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, says Harper has kicked up his rhetoric in recent days about the need to “protect the economy” in a clear bid to appeal to his base.

Bricker says studies have found Conservative voters tend to show up more on voting days when they feel the election is tight, their vote is important and that there’s “a threat from the other side.” Portraying the NDP and Liberals as “threats” is all part of the get-out-the-vote strategy.

On Syrian refugees, an issue touching the hearts of millions of Canadians, an EKOS poll earlier this month found only 38 per cent want Canada to take in more Syrian refugees. Some 25 per cent feel Canada is already bringing in too many refugees and 34 per cent that Ottawa is bringing in the right amount.

Also playing in Harper’s favour is a Canadian variation of the “shy Tory” factor.

The phrase was coined by British pollsters after the 1992 U.K. election in which the polls predicted a solid victory for the Labour Party, but instead the Conservatives under John Major were easily re-elected. The pollsters suggested one reason they got it wrong was that people who planned to vote Conservative just didn’t admit it.

Both Graves and Bricker say they haven’t found too much evidence of the “shy Tory” factor in Canadian elections. Rather, what they find is that Conservatives tend to be a bit under-represented in polling samples, sometimes because they mistrust pollster more than other party supporters.

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On voting day, though, those hard-core Tories show up at the polls, giving a huge “surprise boost” to Tory outcomes.

So don’t count Stephen Harper out yet, because he’s got his hard-core base all fired up and they’re ready to vote.

Bob Hepburn's column appears Sunday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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