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When Leonard Krog was reelected in the 2017 provincial election, he was one of only three MLAs who became provincial legislators back in 1991.

The others were B.C. Liberal MLA Linda Reid and the NDP's Mike Farnworth.

Krog, a lawyer, narrowly lost the 1996 election and didn't return to the legislature until 2005, winning four straight campaigns.

With this much experience, it was reasonable for some to assume that he would be appointed to Premier John Horgan's cabinet.

After all, Krog had spent years in the political trenches as the NDP's attorney general critic.

Back in 2009 in the midst of the B.C. Rail scandal, he compiled 70 questions regarding the sale of this provincially owned company to CN Rail.

But alas, Horgan's cabinet didn't include Krog.

Instead, mid and upper Vancouver Island was represented on the executive council by Scott Fraser and Claire Trevena.

The plum attorney general's post went to Vancouver–Point Grey MLA David Eby.

Krog was left on the sidelines, perhaps because he was part of a caucus revolt against a former leader, Carole James, who was now deputy premier.

After not making it into cabinet, Krog was elected by his colleagues as the NDP caucus chair. This can be taken as a sign that he was respected by his peers.

Then Krog was appointed to the Rental Housing Task Force along with NDP MLAs Spencer Chandra Herbert and Ronna Rae Leonard.

With tongue firmly in cheek, I tweeted out this message in response.

Not long afterward, Krog announced his intention to run for mayor of Nanaimo.

He was easily elected on October 20 and later resigned his seat in the legislature.

Since the 2017 B.C. election, Krog has never publicly complained about not being included in Horgan's cabinet.

He's been a team player by steadfastly supporting Sheila Malcolmson's candidacy to win the Nanaimo by-election for the NDP.

But it's hard not to wonder if things might have turned out differently for the premier had he appointed Krog as attorney general.

Would Krog have not run for mayor of Nanaimo?

Would there not be a by-election that could affect the balance of power in the B.C. legislature?

Premier John Horgan and Opposition Leader Andrew Wilkinson are engaged in a titanic battle in Nanaimo. CBC screen shot

B.C. Liberals hoping to capture 43rd seat

This morning, a new poll suggests that the B.C. Liberals are in a decent position to capture Krog's Nanaimo seat in a by-election on January 30.

If their candidate, Tony Harris, wins, it will give the B.C. Liberals the same number of seats as the NDP-Green alliance in the B.C. legislature.

That would elevate the chances of legislative gridlock in the spring, which could set the stage for a provincial election this year.

And if Horgan were to lose his premiership, it would be as a result of a couple of decisions: not putting Krog in cabinet and choosing to complete the $10.7-billion Site C dam, upsetting many traditional NDP voters.

Then again, Horgan's party could win on Wednesday. And even if the NDP loses and there's a provincial election in the spring, Horgan and his fellow New Democrats could still conceivably come out on top.

So it's too early to say that keeping Krog out of cabinet proved to be a death knell for the first B.C. NDP government in a generation.

But it may have elevated the chance of this happening.

If the B.C. Liberals were to come roaring back into power after just two years in the political penalty box, you can bank on this: Horgan would have no one to blame but himself.

He would go down in history as the Joe Clark of provincial politics—a politician in charge of a government but who squandered it, thanks to a combination of hubris and a failure to predict what people might do in response to his actions.