Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks before signing the Paris Agreement on climate change, Friday, April 22, 2016 at U.N. headquarters. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

A portent of Canada’s delay in ratifying the Paris climate agreement emerged earlier this summer in the form of a decision on what kind of car Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr would use as his ministerial limousine.

The Trudeau government has said that, as part of its commitment to climate change action, it was committed to shifting the government’s fleet of vehicles towards zero emission electric vehicles (EVs).

But when it came time to demonstrate that commitment, they double-clutched and chose a gasoline-hybrid SUV. Their reason: not enough charging stations in Ottawa. You might think the government would see this as an opportunity to demonstrate leadership and make it happen — to convince Canadians that EVs are practical and Ottawa takes its climate change responsibilities seriously. But they didn’t — because it was too hard.

And that pretty well sums up the Trudeau government’s approach to the Paris accord. The Liberals promised action, but action is turning out to be more they’re comfortable with delivering.

Certainly, the federal government has only a limited ability to make big changes happen in this policy area without stepping on provincial toes. But that’s not why the feds are slamming on the brakes. The real reason is economic: 25 per cent of our emissions are due to the production of oil and gas — which the Trudeau government wants to see increase.

All the hand-waving, photo-taking and back-slapping in Paris wasn’t the backdrop to the action. It was the action, or at least as much of it as we’re likely to see.

Some provinces are, meanwhile, moving swiftly on implementing climate change plans of their own. Ontario, for example, is on track for a 37 per cent reduction by 2030 over 1990. Given Ontario represents almost 25 per cent of our national emissions, that sounds like real progress. Kathleen Wynne caught a lot of flack from some quarters for her climate change plan. But at least that plan recognized the obvious: You have to get people to stop driving gasoline vehicles and stop burning natural gas to heat their homes to have an impact. She’s trying to do something to address the real problem, which is coming out of our tailpipes and chimneys.

See, that’s the problem most politicians have yet to confront: To actually reduce emissions, you have to reduce consumption of fossil fuels. That means making significant changes to the way people move around and heat their homes. (Environmental activists, please take note: Blocking pipelines and divesting fossil fuels stocks do not reduce emissions by so much as pound of carbon, the rhetoric from 350.org notwithstanding.)

The aspirational goal set by Environment Minister Catherine McKenna is completely beyond our reach using our current approaches. The aspirational goal set by Environment Minister Catherine McKenna is completely beyond our reach using our current approaches.

But then there are the provinces offering up climate change strategies that shed more heat than light. British Columbia’s carbon tax, for example, is pretty well useless at reducing actual emissions. Concocted comparisons to what the province might be spewing out in the absence of a carbon tax do not constitute proof. The only substantial reduction in emissions to show up under the carbon tax probably had more to do with the Great Recession than with provincial government policy.

Economic data do seem to show that B.C.’s revenue-neutral carbon tax did not affect economic growth. Still, Premier Christy Clark recently refused to raise the tax. That’s how committed she is to climate change action — she won’t even raise an ineffective tax that has no negative economic impact, despite the public’s perception that it’s a good thing.

A revenue-neutral carbon tax can only substantially reduce emissions if the alternatives to fossil fuels become economic due to that tax. And that would require a huge tax increase; the International Energy Agency suggests $130/tonne to drive that kind of change. B.C.’s tax is set at $30/tonne.

And because B.C.’s tax is revenue-neutral, it doesn’t generate a dime for levelling the playing field between low-carbon electric and gasoline vehicles. It provides no funding to subsidize homeowners in switching from natural gas to electric heat pumps. The money goes to income tax cuts — two-thirds to corporations. It’s really more of an income redistribution plan than a climate change action program.

Ontario is using the revenue from carbon pricing to make the alternatives to fossil fuels more economic. That’s the approach the laws of economics say will work.

And Premier Clark’s grandiose plans for liquid natural gas would have inflated B.C.’s emissions by up to 60 per cent — though the market appears to have taken care of that little problem for us. In the latest iteration of Premier Clark’s climate strategy, we don’t see a reduction target until 2050. The intermediate ones have all disappeared — which can only mean bad news.

And then there’s Alberta. Almost 40 per cent of this country’s emissions comes from that province. The Alberta government’s plan to fight climate change would see it stop the emissions level from growing — to hold at almost 60 per cent above the Kyoto benchmark. Which is … something better than nothing, I suppose, but hardly in the spirit of Paris.

Do the math. Western Canada collectively represents 60 per cent our emissions; if we’re lucky, they’re going to hold at the 2005 level. That means that the rest of the country will have to reduce emissions by 75 per cent to hit the 30 per cent national reduction target by 2030.

If Ontario replaced every single car in the province with an electric vehicle, and converted all buildings to electric heat, it would reduce its emissions by … 40 per cent. In other words, the aspirational goal set by Environment Minister Catherine McKenna is completely beyond our reach using our current approaches.

Canada’s not “back” — it never left. The same dull laggard that made promises it couldn’t keep is still here. The country that increased its carbon emissions 20 per cent since 1990 to export fossil fuels to the United States is hoping to do more of the same.

Photo ops never cut an ounce of carbon, but photo ops seem to be most of the plan. Unless the provinces do the work themselves, nothing will get done.

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