In this post, I will provide the current status and a forecast for the U.K. natural gas supply and demand for the remainder of this heating season. The present status and the outlook suggest that this heating season will end with little natural gas in storage.

This is an update of my series about U.K. natural gas. In the second part of this series, I presented the results of several simulations of the U.K. natural gas supply situation for this winter. Using these simulations, I identified the possibility that U.K. might run short of natural gas in storage before the end of this winter.

INTRODUCTION

NOTE: All diagrams are clickable and open in a larger version.

Status for the storage facilities are now as follows:

Short Range Storage (SRS) is now down to approximately 28 % of total working gas capacity.

Medium Range Storage (MRS) is down to approximately 36 % of total working gas capacity.

Long Range Storage (LRS) is down to approximately 24 % of total working gas capacity.

In this post, I will briefly give an update of the status of the storage facilities and the outlook for the remainder of this winter. There are several factors that may change the actual outcome, including weather (most important), changes in the supply--domestic production and imports by pipeline and LNG, remaining flexibility and duration of current natural gas contracts, level of economic activity, fuel switching and prices to name a few.

STORAGE STATUS AS OF THURSDAY 19th FEBRUARY 2009

TOTAL STORAGE

The unseasonably warm weather in the days around last Christmas allowed for some reinjection into storage and is estimated to have reduced net withdrawals by 300 Mcm.

In the article UK gas demand falls as recession bites, it is reported that demand this winter is down 4 % compared with the same period last year. This amounts to a total estimated 700 Mcm less demand between January 01st and now.

Last year saw net withdrawals of an additional 800 Mcm between this time and April 20th. If net withdrawals of natural gas from storage follow roughly the same pattern as last year, this would suggest that total natural gas in U.K. storage would end with a low of 3 - 400 Mcm.

LONG RANGE STORAGE (LRS)

MEDIUM RANGE STORAGE (MRS)

SHORT RANGE STORAGE (SRS)

VOLUMES AND DIRECTION OF FLOWS IN THE INTERCONNECTOR

Presently U.K. natural gas prices are around 40 p/therm (day ahead), and the higher prices in Continental Europe suggests that the Interconnector will continue to flow natural gas from U.K. to Europe.

STATUS OF STORAGE IN FRANCE

STATUS OF STORAGE IN GERMANY

The diagrams for France and Germany illustrate that the storage levels for both countries are now lower than at the same time a year ago. The increased withdrawals this year are mostly believed to be due to the recent shutdown of supplies from Russia through Ukraine and colder than normal weather.

Expectation of lower natural gas prices towards the summer may also have motivated higher storage withdrawals.

More posts on U.K. nat gas supplies:

Will UK face a nat gas crisis during this winter (Part 1 of 2)

Will UK face a nat gas crisis during this winter (Part 2 of 2)

Why UK Natural Gas Prices Will Move North of 100p/Therm This Winter