Up to 80% of the UK population is ‘expected’ to contract the virus (Picture: Mercury/Reuters/Getty)

A leaked government document has warned that up to 80% of the UK ‘are expected’ to be infected with coronavirus and the outbreak could last for a year.

Up to 7.9 million people could be hospitalised due to the virus, according to the document which was seen by the Guardian.

The Public Health England briefing states: ‘As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9m people) may require hospitalisation.’

It has been drawn up by the emergency preparedness and response team and approved by Dr Susan Hopkins, the lead official working on the epidemic in the UK.


NHS nurses wait for the next patient at a drive through Coronavirus testing site in Wolverhampton (Picture: Getty)

Shelves empty of pasta at Tesco in Camelon near Falkirk (Picture: PA)

A senior NHS figure told the paper that if 80% of people were infected, this could lead to more than half a million people dying if the mortality rate turns out to be 1%.



If Professor Chris Whitty is correct in believing the rate will be closer to 0.6%, this would lead to 318,660 people dying.

The document also warns that an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people considered vital because they work ‘in essential services and critical infrastructure’ could be away from work unwell at any given time during the peak of the epidemic – which could last months.

It also warns that even NHS staff who show symptoms will be given a swab because testing services are already under train.

The virus SARS-CoV-2 emerging from the surface of cells cultured in a lab (Picture: Getty)

Only people seriously ill in hospital and in care homes and prisons where the virus has been recorded will be given a test.

This is because labs are ‘under significant demand pressures’.

It comes as the death toll from Covid-19 in the UK rose to 35, with 1,372 confirmed cases of the disease.

One of the victims, a man in his late 50s, died after being treated at Bristol Royal Infirmary, it was confirmed earlier today. He tested positive for coronavirus after suffering a number of health conditions.

Dr Giri Shankar, incident director for the coronavirus outbreak response at Public Health Wales, said: ‘We are working with our partners in the Welsh Government, the wider NHS in Wales, and others now that we have entered the “delay” phase.

‘This is now not just an attempt to contain the disease, as far as possible, but to delay its spread.’

People no longer need to contact NHS 111 if they believe they may have contracted coronavirus, said Dr Shankar, but instead anyone with a high temperature or new continuous cough should stay at home for seven days.

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