Activists say their push will take a matter of years, not months. Search is on for GOP climate convert

Environmentalists are searching for a Rob Portman to call their own — a high-profile Republican who would emulate the Ohio senator’s flip on gay marriage, only this time by supporting action on climate change.

But the search for that elusive green Republican has so far come up short — and the prospects aren’t looking good in the short term.


That hasn’t stopped climate activists from sending people to GOP lawmakers’ district offices during the August recess, running ads lambasting “climate change deniers” in Congress and pushing to make global warming a decisive issue in the 2014 and 2016 elections.

( PHOTOS: Climate skeptics in Congress)

Activists concede that the final push may have to come from circumstances beyond their control, for example from a Republican whose state starts feeling the brunt of climate change. But even that’s far from a foolproof strategy, given the years of hurricanes that have devastated red states in the South without swaying political leaders’ minds.

The activists stress, however, that this is a long-term strategy. They’re thinking in terms of years, not months.

Some greens have a wish list for the kind of Republican they’d want to see joining their team — someone like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. But several liberals said the transformative figure they’re looking for may not be on anybody’s radar yet.

“I think it’ll be a surprise,” one key official on the lookout for green-minded Republicans said. “I think it’ll be one of the names we’re not talking about.”

( Earlier: Obama urges action on climate change)

After all, nobody suspected that Portman would emerge as a defining voice in the same-sex marriage debate before he announced his change of heart in March. That occurred about two years after Portman’s son came out as gay.

“Back in 2004, I am not sure if there was a story being written on which Republicans would take the lead on gay marriage it would have predicted Portman,” said Chris Lehane, a veteran Democratic operative who works for climate activist billionaire Tom Steyer.

GOP skeptics say the greens’ strategy is doomed to fail.

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), who proudly calls himself a “global warming denier,” said there is no chance Republicans will shift their position any time soon — because few Republicans think any urgent reason exists to take action on climate.

“There may be three or four Republicans that believe it,” he told POLITICO. “But I think it’s the least of our worries as a country right now. The least.”

( PHOTOS: Keystone XL pipeline protest)

One target of the activists’ ad campaigns, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, fired back last month by lambasting the League of Conservation Voters as “an extreme left group on an environmental jihad.” He urged his supporters to send money to his campaign.

Environmentalists know that singling out Republican skeptics could backfire in the short term by making them reluctant to switch, for fear of appearing to succumb to pressure from green groups. GOP politicians also know the heavy price they would pay for embracing the climate cause: Witness the fate of Jon Huntsman, whose presidential ambitions suffered after he tweeted in 2011, “I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.”

Still, environmentalists are convinced Republicans will have no choice but to evolve as they face growing evidence of climate change. And groups like LCV and Organizing for Action are actively looking for GOP politicians who might fit the bill.

“I can’t predict for you some conversion moment,” said Environment America Executive Director Margie Alt. “But as we keep seeing more and more storms and more and more droughts and more and more wildfires, these experiences are going to be added up.”

( Also on POLITICO: How can Canada get Keystone done?)

Another factor will be the growing presence of wind and solar installations in Republican districts, said Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune, who added that his group is “looking at the state level with our local chapters all the way up through Congress” for a skeptic willing to switch.

Environmental groups are treading softly so as not to spook potential recruits, but sources privately pointed to candidates who have caught the environmentalists’ eye, including Rubio, Christie, Bush and New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte — or Portman himself, who has worked with Democrats on energy-efficiency legislation.

The candidates are seen as having two things in common: broader political ambitions and influence over other Republicans.

“The goal of this is to get back to the point where there’s more robust bipartisan support for moving forward. We had that for years and years and years,” said LCV President Gene Karpinski. “We need to get back to the point where we have more people on both sides of the aisle talking about climate change.”

Some groups are simultaneously pursuing a more hard-nosed approach: making it clear politicians will pay a price for ignoring climate. That was the idea behind OFA’s Aug. 13 “day of action,” which included visits to Republican lawmakers’ offices as well as a $2 million LCV ad campaign attacking the “deniers.”

Environmental groups are also working to make climate a bigger issue in key races this year and in 2014, and they’re hoping to do the same in 2016.

“What we want to make sure happens is there are specific examples of people who got hurt because of this,” an official at a major environmental group said.

It’s possible some moderate Republicans who once advocated tackling climate change, such as Arizona Sen. John McCain and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, could return to the fold. But for maximum impact, some greens are holding out for a politician who would make a dramatic shift from a past position.

Lehane said other candidates could emerge from one of three places: cities threatened by sea-level rise, drought-stricken Southwestern states and the military, where leaders have identified climate change as a national security threat.

Rubio would hit the mark as a high-profile, young, ambitious Republican who comes from a state with coastlines threatened by rising seas. And he seems to have given himself some wiggle room.

“Anything that we would do on [climate change] would have a real impact on our economy, but probably, if it was only [the U.S.] doing it, a very negligible impact on the environment,” Rubio said in a February interview with BuzzFeed. He also argued that the science is still in question on whether current climate change is primarily caused by humans.

A Rubio spokesman pointed to the senator’s February comments and said his position remains the same, but declined to elaborate.

Environmentalists say Rubio’s thinking could evolve, given the threat cities like Miami face from rising seas.

“Florida is going to be under water,” one well-known environmentalist said. “If he ever wakes up, he could be a perfect example.”

Greens also hope Ayotte will move to the middle on environmental issues ahead of her reelection bid in 2016 in the green-minded state of New Hampshire. Ayotte’s office did not respond to requests for comment from POLITICO, but as a Senate candidate in 2010, she said that “there is scientific evidence that demonstrates there is some impact from human activities. However, I don’t think the evidence is conclusive.”

“She should know better,” the environmentalist said. “When she’s up for reelection, it’s hard to imagine that she’ll be able to be a denier.”

Christie is a big wild card. Hurricane Sandy ravaged his state last year, and he enraged many Republicans by praising Obama’s response to the storm just before Election Day. But he has also pulled New Jersey out of a regional cap-and-trade system, and he said in May that he doesn’t “think there’s been any proof thus far that Sandy was caused by climate change.”

Still, given Christie’s willingness to break with his party, environmentalists haven’t counted him out.

Bush offers some hope to greens, given his track record of championing causes like restoration of the Everglades, as well as his recent shots against the GOP’s “anti-science” image. While Bush called himself a “skeptic” on manmade global warming in 2009, one of his former environmental aides told POLITICO in April that “I can see him coming around to some combination of a cap-and-trade program as the best alternative to regulate.” (Bush did not respond to a request for comment for this story.)

The biggest push for Republicans may come from fellow conservatives — specifically, evangelicals.

The Evangelical Environmental Network, well-known for moving voters to the polls, hopes to free the climate issue from the idea that it is a liberal cause. It notes both the potential for business opportunities and a widespread belief among evangelicals that climate change is real.

“I think there are several people that are in office that are willing to move forward,” network President Mitch Hescox said. He declined to name them but said Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), who has inched away from his colleagues on environmental issues, is “a great person to watch” over the next few months.

GOP operatives aren’t convinced Republicans will collectively change their position on climate change any time soon, even if individual lawmakers do.

“What happened with gay marriage is we decided as a society, we don’t care and are willing to tolerate it,” Republican energy strategist Mike McKenna said. “Climate is one of those things that we’re all going to have to hold hands and do or not do together. No matter how you look at the polling, we’re just not there.”