Who gets hurt if the White House slaps tariffs on steel and aluminum imports?

As with so many things in a huge economy like America’s, it depends on location.

An analysis for MarketWatch by the Brookings Institution shows the states that have the most disproportionate share of imports of steel and aluminum. At the top of the list are Missouri, Louisiana, Connecticut, Maryland and Arkansas.

If the price of these metals goes up, the industries and companies that rely on them to manufacture their products could suffer. Margins could be squeezed, orders could drop.

And if those companies suffer, so could workers. MarketWatch analyzed state-level employment in industry groups connected to trade in those commodities. An effort to save the 139,000 jobs that produce steel and aluminum could put about 6 million jobs at risk in industries that buy and use a lot of the two metals, particularly construction and manufacturing jobs.

As Brookings researchers Max Bouchet and Joseph Parilla told MarketWatch, there are economic ripple effects from a disruption like this one. It’s not just the jobs of people in factories that are in peril, but all the second-order services that support them. For instance, the municipal infrastructure, such as the Port of New Orleans, where steel made up 30% of its cargo last year, depends on healthy traffic volumes. The local economies depend on tax revenues. Small businesses that support those first-order businesses with all kinds of services, from food to cleaning.

Read:Trump’s tariffs will hurt the 6.5 million U.S. workers at steel-consuming manufacturers

The table below shows employment by state in 10 industry categories most connected to steel and aluminum production and consumption — but not those second- and third-order sections of the economy like cleaners, teachers, restaurant workers, and airplane pilots.

Workers directly employed in steel and aluminum production Workers employed in industries that use steel and aluminum Alabama 6,708 139,821 Alaska - 5,891 Arizona 1,065 82,612 Arkansas 3,945 62,863 California 6,597 473,773 Colorado 225 65,863 Connecticut - 107,460 DC - 3,342 Delaware - 7,048 Florida 1,803 194,655 Georgia 2,946 155,798 Hawaii - 6,442 Idaho - 20,133 Illinois 5,066 276,538 Indiana 22,840 306,986 Iowa 3,980 99,513 Kansas 80 87,292 Kentucky 6,837 144,162 Louisiana 1,966 90,758 Maine - 20,965 Maryland 301 43,644 Massachusetts 178 88,850 Michigan 8,717 401,079 Minnesota 705 121,703 Mississippi 1,208 71,471 Missouri 944 135,033 Montana 160 10,837 Nebraska - 36,238 Nevada - 22,472 New Hampshire - 31,241 New Jersey 425 73,283 New Mexico 42 14.818 New York 3,367 167,958 North Carolina 1,762 173,097 North Dakota - 17,123 Ohio 11,400 410,301 Oklahoma 649 88,019 Oregon 1,253 63,111 Pennsylvania 14,945 267,275 Rhode Island - 14,994 South Carolina 3,025 128,523 South Dakota - 19,047 Tennessee 4,469 183,491 Texas 7,685 496,039 Utah - 50,638 Vermont - 9,451 Virginia 1,916 115,503 Washington 1,919 161,680 West Virginia 3,328 26,001 Wisconsin 983 223,785 Wyoming - 7,417 Source: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, as of second quarter of 2017

The states with the largest share of impacted jobs are those with a large share of employment in the manufacturing of metals, transportation equipment, machinery, and electrical equipment. Indiana has the largest share of its jobs in industries at risk -- 11.5% — with Michigan close behind at 10.5%. By contrast, Delaware, Hawaii and the District of Columbia have only about 1% of their total jobs at risk.

The 10 states with the largest percentage of jobs at risk were all won by Donald Trump in the 2016 election. About 69% of the 6 million at-risk jobs are in states won by Trump. Those states have about 55% of jobs.

Also read:With tariffs, Trump finally becomes the rogue president he said he’d be

Some experts, such as those at Brookings, fear something greater than an economic slowdown from tariffs.

“The notion that we could introduce a trade shock and nothing will happen, or only good things will happen is unrealistic,” Parilla said. “The really dangerous second-order effects is retaliation and the possibility that this turns into a zero-sum trade war.”

Read:Trump Today: President tells steel, aluminum executives they’ll have ‘protection’ as he announces tariffs