THE eyes of the football world will be on St Kilda’s clash against Melbourne at Etihad Stadium in Round 1.

Which team is better? Which is closer to a flag? Perspectives have shifted almost as quickly as their respective formlines have fluctuated in recent years.

The one constant has been the comparison between the two clubs.

Inconsistencies are par for the course when you’re rebuilding. But the time for patience is over — that’s one thing both sets of supporters can agree on.

Round 18

And on March 25 — at the typically Melbourne and St Kilda twilight timeslot — the subplot will become a central story.

“Both are well placed,” former Demons coach and Fox Footy expert Paul Roos told foxfooty.com.au.

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“St Kilda’s game style is very similar to Melbourne’s style, which is similar to Sydney’s style and the top teams’ style. That’s more what I look at — how teams play.

“Right now the young group at each club is very similar.”

Since the Western Bulldogs’ Grand Final triumph, the Saints and Demons now lay claim to the longest premiership droughts. The vast majority of members for each club have never seen their team achieve the ultimate success.

So the question remains: Are the Demons or the Saints closer to winning a flag?

Let’s dig deeper.

A RIVALRY BORN OUT OF MEDIOCRITY

IT was Round 1, 2014.

St Kilda hosted Melbourne at Etihad Stadium. Both teams had new coaches, poor membership and had openly forecast short-term pain a little more assertively than long-term gain.

Melbourne fielded two debutants — Jay Kennedy-Harris and Alex Georgiou — while St Kilda handed debuts to Luke Dunstan, Jack Billings and Eli Templeton. Dunstan was the weekend’s Rising Star nominee for his midfield performance in the absence of the suspended Lenny Hayes.

The Saints defeated the Demons by 17 points in an ugly, low-scoring contest. It would be their first of just four wins for the season en route to a 27th wooden spoon.

Melbourne was not much better. Under the guidance of Roos, the Dees finished 17th and were only above St Kilda on the ladder due to a slightly better percentage. However, they did win two more matches than their disastrous 2013 campaign.

The Demons’ average losing margin was six goals, while St Kilda’s was 10 goals. The Saints won just one of match after Round 5, while the Demons lost their final 10.

For Melbourne supporters, sustained struggles were hard to swallow as they had been starved of success for so long. Their last finals win was in 2006 — against St Kilda coincidentally — and their last flag was 1964.

Mark Neeld’s tenure was nothing short of a disaster. Five wins from 28 games didn’t give Demon fans much to cheer about. Rebuild upon rebuild. Loss after loss.

The Saints were arguably more grief-stricken, though. They had reached the summit two years in a row, given it everything, then come tumbling down at a rate that probably only Ross Lyon saw coming.

Rocked by off-field controversies, it was difficult to determine whether the Saints were more of a rabble on or off the field before Alan Richardson took over. Wounded by the fickle bounce of the Sherrin, St Kilda’s fans needed hope and a measured perspective. In Richardson and newly appointed CEO Matt Finnis, they got that.

But any considerable improvement would take time. One thing the Demons and Saints didn’t have was time, given their perilous financial positions and impatient fans. The arrival of Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney made the rise back up even harder.

These were dark times. The light at the end of the tunnel was dim at best.

Luke Dunstan shrugs a Nathan Jones tackle. Pic by Colleen Petch. Source: News Corp Australia

THE GOLDEN CHOICE

ONLY young talent could hasten the development. And as the bottom two-placed clubs, St Kilda and Melbourne held prime position in the 2014 national draft.

For most of the year Christian Petracca was the frontrunner to go with the first selection. Strong, athletic and with a razor sharp sidestep, he was anointed well before October’s combine.

The Saints had other ideas but kept their cards close to their chest.

Key forwards don’t grow on trees — and St Kilda knew this. They also knew that Paddy McCartin had booted 41 goals in 13 games across two seasons for the Geelong Falcons. At 194cm, could he replace Nick Riewoldt when he eventually retired?

There weren’t too many other options. Josh Bruce had played just 10 games for the club since arriving from GWS, but only two of them were in attack. Tim Membrey had not arrived from the Swans yet.

In Emma Quayle’s book ‘The Draftees’, Richardson detailed why McCartin pipped Petracca.

“I look at what’s just happened with (Tom) Boyd,” Richardson said referring to Boyd’s trade request to leave GWS.

“There’s always midfielders. Let’s say we can’t split them and we go with (Christian) Petracca because his history suggests he might play a bit more and have a bigger impact next year.

“There’s no doubt he might do that. But then we’ve got to back the truck up and get Tom Hawkins out of Geelong, or whatever the case may be.”

Head recruiter Tony Elshaug agreed.

“That’s what we think. And there isn’t much between the two of them (Petracca and McCartin),” said Elshaug.

“There’s not much between the three of them, to be frank. (Angus) Brayshaw could be captain of Melbourne in five years.”

So the Saints went with McCartin and Melbourne were left to pick up Petracca and Brayshaw with their first two selections.

Time will tell, but this could prove to be a critical juncture in the story of both clubs.

Christian Petracca, Paddy McCartin and Angus Brayshaw. Picture: Stephen Harman Source: News Corp Australia

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LIST MANAGEMENT

IN 11 games last season, Melbourne’s 22 was the youngest team in the competition. With this in mind, winning 10 games was a credible effort.

Even so, Champion Data ranks Melbourne’s midfield as the worst in the league this year and No. 17 if you include ruckmen.

“Melbourne’s list is approximately two years ahead of St Kilda’s in my estimations,” list expert and former Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and St Kilda list manager Chris Pelchen told foxfooty.com.au.

“The depth in the Demons midfield is quite exciting. For them to be able to build and get a Jordan Lewis in the off-season, it all looks good for Melbourne over the next three or four years. They will be continual improvers over that period of time.

“While the Saints still have players like Jack Steven, Nick Riewoldt and David Armitage, they will have star power. In fact, their star power is greater than the Dees. But Melbourne has greater depth. That’s an area the Saints need to address.”

As Melbourne coach, Roos revealed it was the Bulldogs — not the Saints — who he watched closest in his early days at AAMI Park.

“I remember watching the Western Bulldogs in my first year of coaching and they were young, but were gradually getting some consistency,” Roos said.

“I didn’t see a comparison when I first arrived with St Kilda, but I did with the Dogs. I watched how they played and how they developed a really consistent brand. Then ‘Macca’ (Brendan McCartney) came to Melbourne and gave us an insight of what he was doing at the Bulldogs.”

Roos also believes recent acquisitions of older players have evened things out between the two teams.

“Melbourne doesn’t have a lot of players that will finish soon,” he said.

“The majority of Melbourne’s best 22 is going to be there in five, six or seven years. Probably the only thing I’d say about St Kilda is that there are quite a few of their best 22 that may not be there in five years.

“The fact that Jake Melksham, Jordan Lewis and Michael Hibberd have now joined means that Melbourne’s top tiers have evened out a little bit too.”

Paul Roos and Alan Richardson. Pic Michael Klein Source: News Corp Australia

LIST COMPARISONS 2017 (courtesy of Champion Data)

Below is a list comparison between the two teams. Both are incredibly similar. It must be noted that Melbourne has been rebuilding since 2007 and had a top-five pick in seven consecutive drafts. Meanwhile, St Kilda has been replenishing its list with young talent for five years.

List Age

Melbourne: 24 years, 17 days (13th oldest)

St Kilda: 24 years, 77 days (8th oldest)

Experience

Melbourne: 66 Games (13th-most experienced)

St Kilda: 68 Games (12th-most experienced)

Top 10 Picks

Melbourne: 10

St Kilda: 7

Above Average or Elite Players

— Over 25

Melbourne: 7 (3 under 24)

St Kilda: 10 (1 under 24)

2016 Scalps

Melbourne: Hawthorn, Greater Western Sydney

St Kilda: Geelong, Western Bulldogs

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ROUND 1

BOTH sets of supporters will caution the Round 1 result by suggesting it doesn’t mean everything.

However, there is no doubt the Demons need to put an end to an incredible run of 14 straight losses to St Kilda.

The Saints touched up the Dees twice last year and haven’t lost to them since 2006. That was Grant Thomas’ last game as coach and Aaron Hamill’s final match as a player. Even when the Demons were four points up with 30 seconds left in Round 11, 2015 they found a way to let the Saints back in. Richardson’s coaches’ box audio told the story on that occasion.

But remember, in Round 1 last year the Demons defeated the Giants and North Melbourne beat Adelaide. What happens in the opening week is not the be all and end all, as much as it may seem so in the moment.

What all can agree on is that this opening-round clash between Melbourne and St Kilda will be must-watch viewing, especially going on pre-season form.

Melbourne booted the biggest pre-season score since 2000 against Carlton in late February, before St Kilda eclipsed it (also against the Blues) on the weekend.

The Demons have won just one of their last 25 games at Etihad Stadium. The venue haunts them and only a win in Round 1 could soften these concerns.

Comparatively, the Saints have been victorious in eight of their last 10 matches at the venue. With Richardson’s emphasis on rapid ball movement, the dimensions and roof clearly suit them.

It seems like an eternity away, but in Round 21 Melbourne hosts St Kilda at the MCG on a Sunday afternoon. The return leg may just be more critical than the opening clash.

WHO IS CLOSER TO A FLAG? WHAT THE EXPERTS THINK:

Gerard Healy (On The Couch): Melbourne

Sarah Olle (foxfooty.com.au): Melbourne

Alastair Lynch (Fox Footy): St Kilda

Mike Sheahan (Open Mike): St Kilda

David Parkin (Fox Footy): St Kilda

Ben Waterworth (foxfooty.com.au): Melbourne

Nick Dal Santo (Fox Footy): St Kilda

Jake Niall (AFL Tonight, foxfooty.com.au): Melbourne

Ben Dixon (Fox Footy): Melbourne

Matthew Pavlich (Fox Footy): Melbourne

David King (Fox Footy): Melbourne

Dermot Brereton (Fox Footy): Melbourne

Anthony Hudson (Fox Footy): Melbourne

Julian De Stoop (Fox Sports News): Melbourne

Riley Beveridge (foxfooty.com.au): St Kilda

Drew Jones (Fox Sports News): Melbourne

Neroli Meadows (Fox Sports News): Melbourne

Brian Lake (Fox Footy): Melbourne

Adam Papalia (Fox Footy): Melbourne

Anna Harrington (foxfooty.com.au): St Kilda

MELBOURNE: 14

ST KILDA: 6

What do YOU think? Let us know in the poll above.