Lie #1: Walker inherited a state fiscal situation so dire that it required a budget repair bill to be passed.

Background: Article VIII Section 5 of the Wisconsin Constitution requires a balanced budget, with exceptions for emergencies and infrastructure spending. §16.50(7)(a) of the Wisconsin statutes requires a budget repair bill if "previously authorized expenditures will exceed revenues in the current or forthcoming fiscal year by more than one-half of one percent of the estimated general purpose revenue appropriations for that fiscal year" (Wisconsin fiscal years run from July 1st to June 30th, so FY11 ended on June 30th, 2011).

Reality: On January 31st, 2011, the non-partisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau (LFB; the state version of the CBO) projected a $56 million surplus for the general fund (note that this is after the special session's tax giveaways). The "budget repair bill" was announced by Walker on February 11th and introduced to the Assembly on February 15th.

In fact the 2009-11 fiscal situation was so bright that Walker managed to also sneak in signing SS-SB12 (which became Act 13) which sucked out another $75 million and AB148 (which became Act 27) sucked out another $193.3 million just before the end of the fiscal year.

That is to say, between the special session tax giveaways (up to $12.9 million, see the LFB link above), Act 13 and Act 27, the budget situation Walker inherited was in such great shape that it afforded nearly another $280 million of Walker tax giveaways and spending on pet projects in FY11. In contrast, the "Budget Repair Bill" which became Act 10 languished in the courts and was finally published on June 28th, 2011, thus going into effect on June 29th, so only for two days of FY11.

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Lie #2: Public employees are overpaid and need to pay for their own pensions instead of taxpayers doing it for them

Reality: Jeffrey Keefe of Rutgers University published a study via the Economic Policy Institute on February 10th, 2011 (so just before the "Budget Repair Bill" came out) showing that controlling for the factors of education and experience and hours worked Wisconsin public sector employees on average get a compensation package (so including benefits) of 4.8% lower value than if they were working in the private sector.

The deferred compensation pension plans of Wisconsin public employees are 100% funded according to a Pew Center study of the state of states' pension systems (see the map on page 17) from February 2010, i.e. after the stock market crash had hit hard. It's a problem in many states, but not Wisconsin.

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Lie #3: The $3.6 billion deficit

Background: in his budget proposal (table 1 on page 7) Walker detailed where the oft-mentioned $3.6 billion deficit figure for 2011-13 came from.

Reality: Paying attention to the starting point, for the $1,489 shortfall figure Walker cites a November 19th, 2010 Department of Administration report. One finds that this is merely the sum of projected revenues minus the sum of agency requests. Looking at the Agency Budget Requests on page 6 of the November report, these amount to an increase of $1.560 billion in FY12 and a further $825.6 million on top of that in FY13, for a total increase of $3,945.6 million. Hence keeping agency budgets at FY11 levels would have produced a $347.6 million surplus even after covering all the items Walker pointed to as contributing to the deficit (i.e. making up the shortfall of Medicaid dollars from the expiring federal stimulus, making good the raided IPFCF fund, halting furloughs).

In fact the Federal stimulus-enhanced 2009-11 Budget's appropriations added up to $62,192,112,300, yet Walker signed into law $64,323,927,000 of spending, $2.1 billion more.

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Lie #4: Walker didn't raid any funds to help balance the budget

He claimed he wouldn't.

In the words of the 2011-13 Budget:

Section 9218. Fiscal changes; Government Accountability Board.

(3i) Wisconsin election campaign fund transfer. On the effective date of this subsection, the unencumbered balance in the Wisconsin election campaign fund is transferred to the general fund.

(3j) Democracy trust fund transfer. On the effective date of this subsection, the unencumbered balance in the democracy trust fund is transferred to the general fund.

These only provided minor things, like allowing it to be possible to campaign for statewide offices without becoming beholden to donors

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Lie #5: Walker didn't raise taxes to help balance the budget

He claimed he wouldn't.

Section 1884 of the 2011-13 Budget cut the Earned Income Tax Credit for those with 2 or more qualifying children (compare with the old rates). Also Section 2128 removed the indexing of the Homestead Tax Credit to inflation. So he did increase taxes. On those least able to afford them.

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Lie #6: Walker balanced the budget

The Legislative Fiscal Bureau currently projects a $208.2 million shortfall by the end of FY13. If you scroll back to Lie #1, you'll notice a reference there to the law regarding what triggers a legal requirement for a Budget Repair Bill, whether the legislature is in session or not. As the LFB memo points out, the projected shortfall exceeds the 0.5% trigger by $71.4 million.

Thus far, Walker has only managed to bridge $26 million of that gap by raiding mortgage settlement funds (two days after announcing he wouldn't).

Walker currently stands in violation of the law by failing to produce a Budget Repair Bill.

Wisconsin produces two sets of accounts: firstly the budgetary/cash basis that is commonly used (including by Walker for the 2011-13 budget); secondly by using GAAP. That report, made immediately after the passage of the 2011-13 Budget, announced:

The General Fund is the chief operating fund of the State. At June 30, 2011, the State's General Fund reported a total fund deficit of $(2,994.8) million.

Require the use of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) to balance every state budget, just as we require every local government and school district to do.

On the campaign trail, Walker promised to He kept that promise up on his site until at least 12/30/10 Within 61 days , he introduced his Budget Proposal which projected a -$2,990.5 million GAAP deficit in FY12 and a -$3,024.5 deficit in FY13 (table 7 on page 33).

Furthermore, the Walker Administration certified to the Federal government that a GAAP deficit existed for both FY12 and FY13 (scroll down for Huebsch's letter itself).

Scott Walker left the budget $3 billion in the red, according to Scott Walker and the Walker Administration.

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Lie #7: Walker's been all jobs jobs jobs!

A large part of Walker's campaign was his promise to add 250,000 jobs to the Wisconsin economy.

The September 2011 special session was described as “Back to Work Wisconsin” special session, yet failed to produce a single jobs bill.

In the 2011 revisions to monthly numbers (on page 2), the Walker Administration shows that Wisconsin lost 20,600 jobs in 2011 including 9,700 from the private sector. This put Wisconsin dead last among the 50 states in 2011 job creation.

What is more, in the first 6 months of 2011 Wisconsin added 12,000 private sector jobs. Then after his signature economic policies went in to effect (the "Budget Repair Bill" on June 29th, 2011 and Budget on July 1st, 2011), the private sector promptly shed 21,700 jobs. This is in stark contrast to the 24,800 jobs Wisconsin packed on in 2010 (the private sector gaining 28,200).

In the first 3 months of this year the monthly changes have been +5,200; +10,100; -4,500, leaving Wisconsin still 6,100 private sector and 5,800 public sector jobs down over the first 9 months of Walkernomics being fully in place, according to the Walker Administration

This is not a reflection of any national issue: the country as a whole gained 1,510,000 nonfarm payroll jobs over the same period; as a fraction, Wisconsin jobs were down -0.4% while US jobs were up 1.1% in the same 9 months.

Here is where Wisconsin fits in with respect to the other states with statistically significant changes in their job totals over the last 12 months (thanks RandomNonviolence for the graphical work):

Ah yes, and here's the donation link for recall candidates.

Added link to Huebsch letter certifying Wisconsin's deficit into Lie #6. Added specific Walker claims to Lies #4 and #5.

Added RandomNonviolence's chart of year-on-year jobs changes.

My diary on Walker leading Wisconsin off a jobs cliff.