Pity British commuters this autumn. In southern England, Merseyside, East Anglia and the east coast main line they will face a wave of disruption after strikes were announced for Tuesday 3 October and Thursday 5 October. London Underground will also face disruption on the later date.

Privately, the rail workers’ union, the RMT, and drivers’ union Aslef believe they can win improved pay and conditions for their members and ensure the safety of the travelling public as rail firms attempt to introduce trains without guards.

This could all be in place by now, they argue, if the government – and in particular, transport secretary Chris Grayling – had given rail firms a free hand to negotiate. But according to the RMT, the rail workers’ union, the “dead hand” of Grayling has halted progress.

RMT and Aslef are used to fighting disputes in the public eye and the walkouts have been meticulously planned for maximum political effect. They will coincide with the Conservative party’s annual conference in Manchester and follow proposed action by public sector unions including the PCS and the POA over the government’s refusal to lift the pay cap.

These disputes also underline how difficult it is to modernise industries when technological progress appears to pose a direct threat to jobs. Industrial action is planned at Southern Rail, Merseyrail, Arriva Rail North and Greater Anglia in a row over the introduction of driver-only operated trains. The abolition of conductors is deemed unacceptable by rail unions, who are well aware that driverless trains could be the next development.

An RMT spokesman said that after Southern Rail, Merseyrail, Arriva Rail North and Greater Anglia failed to engage properly in talks, he suspected the involvement of the transport secretary: “We believe that the dead hand of Chris Grayling has been at work. This is not normal in terms of industrial relations. Our belief is that it is politically driven by the DfT.”

Economically driven might be more apt. The government is tired of pumping billions into Network Rail, the owner of Britain’s tracks and stations, and wants costs to be held down across the industry. It doesn’t take long for that sort of agenda to clash directly with unions.

The RMT official added that Abellio, the Dutch government-owned company which has the Anglia franchise, last year reached an agreement with the RMT in Scotland in a similar dispute, but is not sitting down with the union now.

“How come Abellio was able to strike a deal over Scotrail, but can’t do it on Anglia? If it was great deal there, why not here? Is it because the government wants train operators to take a stand?”

Nonetheless, there are signs that the most divisive dispute – on Southern, Britain’s busiest commuter franchise – is not intractable. The negotiations with Southern, involving both rail unions, took a new turn last Thursday when Aslef claimed it was close to a deal. Details of the talks were withheld, but a joint statement said “significant progress” had been made in discussions between the union and Govia Thameslink.

But this will probably come at a cost to intra-union relations. Tensions between Aslef and the RMT have increased over the past year. RMT officials are furious that Aslef negotiators have sought a preferential deal for their members behind the backs of fellow trade unionists. Aslef members have already rejected two offers recommended by the union — both of which offered concessions in exchange for drivers taking responsibility for closing train doors.

This leaves RMT in the familiar position of being public enemy number one for the franchise owners. They claim that RMT is on a “national crusade” to gain more money and power for its members. Operators argue that driver-only operation (DOO) was introduced on the Bedford-St Pancras line in 1982 and has spread to about 30% of the UK mainline network, as well as London Underground, and results in a more efficient system.

The RMT insists that operating with a guard is superior to DOO on safety grounds. In a dossier prepared last June, the union asked: “With the [DOO] model being nothing new, it is right to ask why, if it is so safe, has it been adopted by less than a third of the network? The answer is that it is unsafe, and unpopular with the public.”

Southern said: “We are disappointed by this unnecessary action and the RMT’s continued refusal to engage with us in modernising the railway. Last strike, we ran a normal service on most routes but passengers will inevitably be affected in places and we deeply regret any inconvenience these strikes will cause.”

The rail minister, Paul Maynard, accused the RMT of “playing political games” over the Southern dispute. He said: “On Southern, performance has been significantly better this year but this can only improve if industrial action by the trade unions stops. This is not about safety, as the regulator has ruled that driver-controlled trains are safe. No one is losing their job or any pay as a result of the changes being put in place.”

The heyday for UK rail industry investment, which came after the Labour government created Network Rail from the ashes of Railtrack, is a distant era. As franchise owners and the government look for ways to save money, British commuters should be braced for more strikes.