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In terms of stock performance, the BI Global Cannabis Competitive Peers index sank 54 per cent in 2018. It was a wildly volatile year for many pot stocks, but none could match Tilray Inc., the only cannabis stock to be listed solely on a U.S. exchange. It closed the year up 315 per cent from its July initial public offering, but that represents a major come-down for investors — at its highest point in September, it was up 1,665 per cent. The stock peaked at US$300, and now trades close to US$70. It still has a market value of US$6.6 billion, surpassed only by Canopy Growth Corp. among pot firms.

It’s going to be hard to top the action-packed year that was, though 2019 will have almost as many catalysts for cannabis investors as 2018.

What to watch this year:

– The U.S. will dominate the news flow and stock listings: with the recently passed farm bill legalizing hemp, some say it’s only a matter of time before legislators follow suit and legalize cannabis nationwide. Others argue a divided Congress will stymie any real progress. Either way, 2019 will be America’s time in the marijuana spotlight as investor interest rapidly shifts from Canada to the much larger U.S. market, where consumer spending on legal cannabis is expected to reach US$20.9 billion by 2021 from US$11 billion last year, according to Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics.

– As the U.S. weighs proposed legislation that could open up banking and stock exchanges to cannabis companies, institutional investors will feel increasingly comfortable investing in the space. To date, cannabis investments have largely been the purview of retail investors, family offices and specialty hedge funds.

– Legalization of both medical and recreational cannabis will continue to spread around the world, with France, Italy, Peru, New Zealand and even Lebanon on the list of countries thought to be the next movers.

– Clear winners and losers will begin to emerge in Canada as pot producers report their first earnings that include recreational sales. Expect plenty of consolidation and a few outright failures.

Bloomberg.com