Early-state polls show wide-open GOP primary

The Republican field for 2016 remains wide open in the early caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to a new set of NBC News/Marist polls, with Hillary Clinton still the overwhelming favorite among Democrats.

In the general election, Clinton leads hypothetical matchups against former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in Iowa and New Hampshire, but trails Bush 48 percent to 45 percent and ties Walker at 46 percent in South Carolina.


Among potential GOP caucus-goers in Iowa, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leads with 17 percent, closely followed by Bush at 16 percent, Walker at 15 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 9 percent, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 7 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio tied with retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 6 percent.

In New Hampshire, Bush leads the pack with Walker, Paul and Christie all following behind with double-digit numbers. In South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham grabbed 17 percent in his home state, closely followed by Bush with 15 percent and Walker with 12 percent. Huckabee and Carson are tied at 10 percent.

Democratic voters in all three states overwhelmingly picked Hillary Clinton over Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. (The polls excluded Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has said repeatedly that she is not running.)

The Iowa polls, conducted from Feb. 3 to Feb. 10, surveyed 320 potential Democratic caucus-goers and 321 potential Republican caucus-goers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. The general election polls surveyed 891 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

The New Hampshire polls, also conducted from Feb. 3 to Feb. 10, surveyed 309 potential Democratic primary voters and 381 potential Republican primary voters, with margins of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points and 5.0 percentage points, respectively. The general election polls surveyed 887 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

The South Carolina polls, conducted from Feb. 3 to Feb. 10, surveyed 352 potential Democratic primary voters and 450 potential Republican primary voters, with margins of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points and 4.6 percentage points, respectively. The general election polls surveyed 877 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

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