TO: Interested Parties

FR: Dan Sena, DCCC Executive Director

DT: May 21, 2018

RE: New DCCC Data – GOP Tax Bill Support Dropping Fast

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Nearly six months after the Republicans passed their tax bill, public support for their signature legislative achievement – which Republicans made clear they had to sell to save their imperiled majority – has returned to an underwater status with voters. According to national polling conducted by the DCCC, the tax bill’s favorability dropped to (-6) in April and (-9) in May.

The dropping popularity of the tax bill is no surprise considering that voters do not expect to benefit from much of the trillion-dollar tax bill, which reflects the reality that the vast majority of the bill’s tax cuts flow to the wealthy and large corporations.

This drop in support is also consistent with the fact that Republicans have dramatically decreased their promotion and advertising of the tax bill since it was signed into law. Reuters reports that Republicans are not talking about this unpopular piece of legislation in their districts. In the special election in Pennsylvania, Republicans stopped all advertising on the tax bill in the final weeks – after Congressman Conor Lamb successfully push backed on the realities of the bill. Republicans did not even attempt to sell the bill in a too-close-for comfort special election in Arizona.

DETAILS OF NEW DATA ON GOP TAX BILL & NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT:

Starting in March, the DCCC has asked voters whether they favor or oppose the tax plan signed into law. Since voters filed their taxes in April, the popularity of the bill has again dropped into net negatives, currently at 50% oppose – 41% favor (-9). Clearly, the tax bill is not even close to the “silver bullet” Republicans need.

In addition to these trends, the DCCC’s latest national polling provides several key metrics on the national environment when comparing Democrats in Congress versus Republicans in Congress.

Asked which group would “ stand up for people like me ,” Democrats in Congress have a 9-point advantage (54-45%).

,” Democrats in Congress have a 9-point advantage (54-45%). Voters believe Republicans in Congress are more likely to “ enrich themselves and their friends at the expense of taxpayers ,” by a 14-point margin (56-42%).

,” by a 14-point margin (56-42%). Voters believe Republicans in Congress are more “out of touch with people like me ,” by a 10-point margin (54-44%)

,” by a 10-point margin (54-44%) While many voters believe the economy is improving, this does not translate to a Republican advantage: voters divide evenly between the parties (49-50%) on who they trust more to handle jobs and the economy.

Do you favor or oppose the Republican tax bill?

Who do you trust to do a better job on taxes and government spending – Democrats or Republicans in Congress?

Who do you trust to do a better job on tax reform – Democrats or Republicans in Congress?

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These results are based on a national online survey of 1,000 registered voters, most recently conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research on behalf of the DCCC from May 10 – 16, 2018.