The Conservative convention in Vancouver this weekend was not just an exercise in moving the bruised party past the trauma of last fall’s failed election campaign, it was the unofficial curtain-raiser on the race to succeed Stephen Harper.

Certainly, much more interesting than mundane policy debates — or worse, proposed constitutional amendments — was talking to delegates about who they think will run for leader and who they might support. So here are the results of my weekend research, based almost entirely on anecdotes, hearsay and instinct rather than any insider information.

Declared Candidates:

Kellie Leitch, the pediatric orthopod, represents the Ontario Red Tories. She is smart and likable. However, her French language limitations and her association with and lack of judgement in promoting the barbaric cultural practices snitch line compromise her ability to be a serious contender.

Maxime Bernier, a self-described libertarian, is quite popular, especially among some of the younger delegates. He is youngish, fit and hip and his English imperfect but more than acceptable. He may draw significant support in Quebec. His campaign will be credible but he is still a long-shot.

Michael Chong is smart and more than adequately bilingual. The son of immigrant parents, Chong has figured out that the path back to power runs through suburbia and immigrant communities. His campaign will bring forward a much-needed discussion and debate on democratic reform. But he may lack the profile and infrastructure to be a contender.

Tire Kickers:

Peter McKay: Kept a comparatively low profile at Convention 2016. He has a young family and a Bay Street Law practice to keep him busy, though his partners are said to have endorsed a run if he jumps in. If he does, he’ll be an immediate frontrunner. And if Jason Kenney passes, he would be considered the favourite.

Lisa Raitt: Popular and smart, many delegates believe she will enter the race. If she does, she will mount a credible campaign. She is a lawyer with an impressive pre- politics resume, including running the Toronto Port Authority. By holding her seat in GTA, she has demonstrated a much-needed Tory connection to suburbia. Her riding association hosted a hospitality suite. I think she will run.

Tony Clement: Fluently bilingual, he is essentially already running. He was working the rooms and is a constant presence on social media. He also hosted a hospitality suite to firm up support. He was generally a competent minister but a lack of charisma and the matter of G20 gazebos are cited by delegates as impediments.

Erin O’Toole: Smart, popular and ambitious, he will likely throw in. He is hyper-partisan and a skilled pitchman. He may be campaigning for the next leadership or merely to enhance his status within the party.

Dr. Dan Lindsey: For a guy who has never held elected office, he is remarkably well-known by the delegates. Those close to him say he will run and will market himself as the anti-establishment candidate. However, he will need some sort of establishment or infrastructure to sell memberships if he is to mount a credible campaign.

Kevin O’Leary: I find his candidacy puzzling. Perhaps motivated by Donald Trump’s Republican success, he thinks his fame and wealth will carry him to the PMO. He did not stay for the entire convention and did not shmooze. My sense is that he won’t run for leader but will get involved somehow. His main motivation seems to be to lecture Canadians on fiscal policy. He might try to install himself as an economic advisor or even as a kingmaker. I doubt he has the patience for either partisan politics or government.

Jason Kenney: If Kenney throws in, he will be the presumptive favourite. Fluently bilingual, his work ethic and reach into immigrant communities is unparalleled. He hosted a hospitality suite Friday night but when he addressed the full convention talked about the need to unite the right in Alberta. He is definitely running for the leadership of something, somewhere. Many delegates I spoke to are leery that those outside of the party will take to another Reformer from Calgary.

Long Shots

Andrew Scheer: The former Speaker of the House will run for leader if Jason Kenney does not. The social conservatives need a place holder. He has been a MP for 12 years but is only 37 years old. If he runs, it will be to solidify support for the next time.

Michelle Rempel: She is only 36 and has a long prosperous career in front of her. But this is not her time. As an urban woman, she represents a demographic the party desperately needs to reconnect with. She has a large role to play in the future of the CPC but delegates do not believe she will currently seek its leadership.

Won’t Run

Brad Wall: There was a “Draft Brad Wall” campaign among delegates; it continues on social media. However, the recently re-elected Premier of Saskatchewan did not appear at the convention. He consistently maintains he is happy in his current gig and missing the last major gathering of conservatives prior to the leadership seems to be confirmation. If he ran, I suspect he would win.

Rona Ambrose: Her ineligibility as interim leader has been confirmed by the delegates to the convention.

There is no overwhelming frontrunner or superstar among the declared or likely candidates. Perhaps one will emerge. If not, it’s going to be competitive. That is why it is called a leadership contest.

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