Today’s subject of study: Adam Thielen!

Will we see a similar duo in Minnesota?

While on a team with Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, and a good defense, Thielen will be hard-pressed to see more than the 8.9 targets per game he garnered last season. Sure-handed and savvy, with a versatile route tree, he and Michael Crabtree are cut from the same ilk. Thielen thrives after the catch while Crabtree magnetically absorbs end zone targets. Neither rely on dynamic athleticism yet they both know how to separate on breaks, use their bodies, and win at the catch point.

If the Vikings lean pass-heavy, Thielen and Diggs could look like 2016 Crabtree and Amari Cooper, when they amassed 145 and 132 targets respectively. Provided Thielen maintains his average of 14.0 yards per reception from the past two years, along with his projectable 63.6% catch rate from last year, we are looking at another monster season from the Pro Bowler. Tallied up, that’s 92 catches and 1,288 receiving yards. While he doesn’t appear to have the end zone dominance of Crabtree, touchdowns are notoriously volatile from season to season. Reputation aside, Crabtree himself has two seasons of 15 or more games played where he totaled just 4 touchdowns. Last year, Thielen saw 9 end zone targets and 16 red zone targets. It’s easy to envision the 6’3” slot receiver doubling his 4 touchdown total. That’s a WR1 in standard and PPR formats

Personal approximation of outcome: 15%