Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cellphone. My answer is, “Probably never.”

I have friends who worked on the Palm Treo. And to this day, my gut churns to recall the hell they went through.

The problem is that when you build a cellphone, the carriers (Verizon, Cingular, etc.) have veto power over EVERY move you make. You have to fight, wheedle, cajole, beg, demo, refine, lather, rinse, repeat…all in hopes that the carriers will accept your design–and stock your phone.

I cannot imagine Apple giving veto power to ANYONE over its software design. It just ain’t gonna happen.

Now, some have speculated that Apple could start up its *own* carrier, becoming a cellphone company in its own right by licensing airtime from one of the larger carries, as Amp’d, Helio and other small carriers have done. Well, maybe.

Look, I’d love an Apple phone. On this point, I’ll be delighted to turn out to be wrong. I think cellphones are as ripe for a radical rethink as the online music store was when Apple set up iTunes.

But let’s not go all wiggy every time someone passes around an iPhone rumor on the Web. Odds are, it’s just there to get you riled up.

Don’t believe me? Then have a look at this wonderful Museum of Bogus Apple Phone Rumors, extending all the way back to 2004 and filled with “photos” and “reports.”

[Update: So now there’s a new rumor that Apple has signed a deal with Cingular for early 2007, and there are error messages hidden in today’s iTunes 7.0.1 update that contain references to music and photos on your “mobile phone.” Does this mean the iPhone is imminent after all? Or should we get all excited because THESE rumors seem better than the last ones?]