In 2014, the last reliable figures that take ethnicity into account, there were 790,000 Poles living in the UK. With EU net migration still in the positive, and suggestions these figures might be a grossly underestimated, the total number could be significantly higher. To be clear, this is not a piece about immigration, or, at least, not about its effects on Britain, but about what policies may convince Polish migrants to vote Labour. Because the Tories have a head start.

As EU migrants, most Poles in the UK can – though often don’t – vote in local and European elections, and, with increasing numbers acquiring British citizenship, they are a potentially significant electorate that all major parties will be targeting. With Labour facing challenges in swathes of the country, every constituency that could be won is vital. Polish migrants might hold the key to victory not just in old centres of émigré Polish culture, but also in Middle England, precisely where we need to win.

In Peterborough, the total number of Central and Eastern European migrants to have arrived before 2011 was just over 14,000. The majority of the sitting Tory MP, Stewart Jackson, is 1,925. Poles make up just below half of that number, 6,666 exactly, according to the 2011 census. The year 2011 is an important date, as citizenship requirements mean that, to vote in the general election, a residency period of minimum five years is required – meaning that, for some at least, they wouldn’t have had the possibility to vote in the last general election.

They will in 2020 and 2025. The Financial Times reported that an increasing number of EU migrants were applying for citizenship due to fears about their status post-Brexit. With more arriving, and many remaining long enough to become British citizens, in marginal constituencies like Peterborough they are a vote to be reckoned with. Conversely, if they swing to the Tories, they might guarantee a Conservative majority in these constituencies for decades.

The Labour Party needs to realise that Poles are drawn to the Conservatives for historical and ideological reasons. Since the Iron Curtain fell in 1989, what amounts to a post-communist consensus in Poland is a combination of social conservatism and limited economic liberalism, with large sections of industry still in state hands. This is firmly entrenched itself, ideologically, in the mind of most Poles. Adam Nowacki, former deputy chair of the East Ham Conservative Party and a recent arrival to the UK, is now a Labour member having defected from the Tories this year because of the junior doctors’ strike – but his social views remain conservative.

Concrete measures are needed to attract Polish migrants to the Labour Party, measures that, so far, have failed to materialise. In particular, despite a number of Labour MPs having Polish backgrounds, Labour’s attempt to fight on multiple fronts against UKIP and the Tories has resulted in a lack of coherent strategy to approach UK Poles. The Polish Tories have a Twitter feed that posts every day.

A recognition of the peculiar Polish perspective – the hard left is viewed as having justified and supported a totalitarian dictatorship, while Thatcher is seen as a liberator – is a first step. A stronger realisation of the EU’s geopolitical role, as well as real or perceived dangers from a resurgent Russia, and true engagement on issues of Islamophobia and homophobia among the Polish community would be a good start. Some sections of the Polish community have a troubled relationship with tolerance, and engagement does not mean agreement. But Poles are used to a high quality NHS and public services, including transport – compare the price of a high speed train from Krakow to Warsaw and a short train journey in the UK – and it is here that Labour has a significant opportunity.

The long and the short of the issue is that Labour needs to stop viewing Poles and EU migrants in general as a problem and begin to see the electoral opportunities on offer. There are over 150,000 Polish migrants in London, who constitute a sizeable electorate that could be targeted for mayoral and council elections in thee future. And Poles are only one example. Labour needs to stop thinking of immigration as an electoral challenge, and start seeing it as an opportunity.

Kuba Stawiski is vice-chair of the Young Fabians communications network.