The first Disney release of 2020, Pixar’s Onward, arrived on tracking today with a $44 million projection.

Some believe that the forecast for the March 6 release is low and could go higher. The movie directed by Dan Scanlon and featuring the voices of Tom Holland, Chris Pratt, Octavia Spencer and Julia Louis-Dreyfus is set in a suburban fantasy world, where two teenage elf brothers embark on a quest to see if there’s still magic out there.

It’s the first time in the Emeryville, CA animation studio’s 34-year history that they’ve opened a movie in the first-quarter corridor. Disney Animation Studios’ Zootopia owns the March opening record for a feature toon at $75M. Spring break for K-12 schools and colleges kicks off March 6 with 4% and 9% off, respectively, and growing throughout the month.

Warner Bros

Also opening on March 6, but coming on tracking quite low, is the Ben Affleck drama The Way Back. Directed by Gavin O’Connor, Affleck plays a former high school basketball phenom who struggles with alcoholism. He is offered a coaching job at his alma mater. As the team starts to win, he may have a reason to confront his old demons. Pic is projected to debut in the single digits around $7M.

Universal/Blumhouse

Looking really healthy is the $7M Blumhouse/Universal February 28 release The Invisible Man, with a $20M-$24.5M forecast, strong with the under-25 demo and Hispanic audiences. Elisabeth Moss stars as Cecilia. After her abusive ex takes his own life and leaves her his fortune, she suspects his death was a hoax. But as a series of coincidences turn lethal, Cecilia works to prove that she is being hunted by someone nobody can see. Leigh Whannell directs.

Paramount

This weekend’s expected No. 1 release, Paramount/Sega’s Sonic the Hedgehog, continues to eye a $45M-$50M four-day start. Previews kick off tonight at 5 PM. Last night’s Los Angeles special screening received a rapturous response, with many Sonic fans in the audience declaring that Paramount got this video game adaptation right. Pic is currently 71% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. All the of the releases this weekend will benefit from 21% K-12 schools and 9% colleges off on Friday, and 90% K-12 and 32% colleges out on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.

Universal

Universal’s Issa Rae-LaKeith Stanfield hot romance drama The Photograph is looking at $12.5M-$15M at 2,500 theaters. Pic is 83% fresh on RT. Logline: When a famed photographer unexpectedly dies, she leaves her estranged daughter Mae Morton (Rae) hurt, angry and full of questions. When a photograph tucked away in a safe-deposit box is found, Mae finds herself on a journey delving into her mother’s early life and ignites a powerful, unexpected romance with a rising-star journalist, Michael Block (Stanfield).

Also opening over the lucrative Valentine’s Day-Presidents Day four-day weekend is Sony/Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island, which is eyeing at $12M start over four days according to fresh tracking this morning (Sony said $13M-$15M earlier this week) at 2,770 estimated locations. There are no early shows for the PG-13 adaptation of the hit ABC 1980s series. Pic cost around $7M. No RT score yet.

Searchlight has the American remake of the 2014 Swedish movie Force Majeure, which is now a comedy that stars Will Ferrell and Louis-Dreyfus, titled Downhill. At 2,280 theaters, pic’s four-day is looking at $3.75M-$4.25M. The comedy follows a marriage in crisis following an avalanche at a European ski resort. Downhill made its world premiere at Sundance a few weeks ago and currently clocks a 47% RT score.