The diamond standard

Cesare Prandelli has used two formations in Euro 2012. He started with a 3-5-2 for the draws with Spain and Croatia, before switching to a 4-4-2 diamond for the 2-0 win over Ireland. Despite the improvement in results, Italy did not appear particularly more comfortable with the diamond system, and Prandelli was disappointed the Italian press had reported his intention to use that formation. "I had hoped to gain a little advantage," he complained.

Maybe it's an elaborate bluff, but those newspapers remain convinced Prandelli will stick with the diamond against England. Whether Italy use three or four central midfielders, the key theme of Prandelli's midfield is rotation. He doesn't have a clearly defined trequartista (attacking midfielder) to depend upon, and the midfield he fielded against Ireland is a fascinating system on paper – in effect, it is upside-down. Thiago Motta, renowned as a holding midfielder, is furthest forward, while the biggest creative threat is Andrea Pirlo, a No10 early in his career, who sits in front of the defence. Daniele De Rossi plays a box-to-box role on the left, and Claudio Marchisio slides into attacking positions from the right.

Photograph: Guardian

Rather than linking midfield and attack, Motta drops deeper and creates space for his midfield colleagues to storm into. Motta isn't too concerned with linking midfield and attack directly – against Ireland, the player he most frequently passed to was Pirlo, underlining the Juventus player's role as chief playmaker. The player closest to Steven Gerrard and Scott Parker will probably be Motta, if fit, but he's primarily a decoy.

The key vulnerability

Italy can be exposed down the flanks, as the diamond packs the centre of the pitch but offers little assistance to the full-backs. Considering that neither right-back Ignazio Abate nor left-sided Federico Balzaretti are particularly reliable defenders, Roy Hodgson will surely ask his side to get the ball out quickly to the wingers. Abate and Balzaretti started against Ireland because of the system: Prandelli prefers them as full-backs, having picked Christian Maggio and Emanuele Giaccherini, more natural wing-backs, when using 3-5-2.

Photograph: Guardian

England can outnumber the Italian full-backs by pushing Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson forward to exploit Italy's narrowness. The diamond slides across the pitch laterally to guard against this threat – and De Rossi and Marchisio are highly mobile – but this leaves Italy vulnerable to quick switches of play from flank to flank. Gerrard has the ability to play crossfield balls and switch the angle, although England have tended to move only one full-back forward at a time under Hodgson, making this approach less likely.

Alternatively, the width might come from a surprise source. One of the England forwards can drift wide to create overloads, or Gerrard can move to the flank himself. He has assisted three goals from right-wing crosses, two from open play. His surprise darts down the right could be a decisive factor again.

The creative threat

Photograph: Guardian

Italy have scored one goal from open play at Euro 2012, but they still offer a large creative threat. Their main approach is to get Pirlo on the ball, so he can hit long diagonals towards the two strikers, Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli, who work the spaces between the opposition full-backs and centre-backs. Therefore, while England will be keen to attack Italy down the flanks, Hodgson will be wary of leaving his centre-backs exposed. That was Spain's problem – with no width from high up the pitch, they pushed full-backs Alvaro Arbeloa and Jordi Alba forward, but this allowed Cassano and Balotelli to drift wide into space when Italy won the ball. In turn, that forced the centre-backs into uncomfortable positions, and it's unlikely that John Terry, in particular, will want to battle against Cassano or Balotelli near the touchline.

But stopping these attacks at the source is vital. Pirlo's passing range is exemplary, but he doesn't relish confrontations – often trying to win cheap free-kicks – and if the opposition place a hard working, energetic player in front of him, he can be much less effective.