He won’t die wondering – this reshuffle is big.

Joe Hockey, Eric Abetz, Kevin Andrews, Ian Macfarlane and Michael Ronaldson are all out.

Although most were on the Daily Telegraph’s list of ministers Abbott was thinking of demoting anyway, Turnbull has not responded to threats of retribution or destabilisation by proceeding with hesitation or caution. Twenty-first century government requires changes, he says, which seems to imply something about the modernity of his predecessor.

The conservative far right is threatening to split from the Liberal party, there is talk of resignations from some branches and an unnamed but diligent conservative is putting together stopturnbull.com – a website dedicated to proving Turnbull is a kind of Labor/Green sleeper agent who has infiltrated the Liberal party in order to destroy it. Turnbull has ignored all that and chosen to seize the day. Tough calls, he says, are “what leaders have to do.”

This ministry is more moderate than the one it replaces, and Malcolm Turnbull’s backers got the biggest promotions.

The biggest winners in the reshuffle – Marise Payne as the nation’s first female defence minister, communications minister Mitch Fifield, education minister Simon Birmingham, small business minister and assistant treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer – were all Turnbull backers. George Brandis, another Turnbullite, has become leader of the government in the Senate. Most of the assistant minister winners were Turnbull backers too.

Scott Morrison – the biggest winner of all – voted for Tony Abbott but has been accused of not encouraging his supporters to follow suit.

Two Abbott backers were elevated – Christian Porter to social services and Josh Frydenberg entering cabinet in the resources portfolio. The best news most Abbott backers got was that they could keep the jobs they already had – Peter Dutton in immigration, Andrew Robb in trade, Mathias Cormann in finance, Greg Hunt in environment.

He’s matched Labor in representation of women.

Bill Shorten has five women in his shadow cabinet. Late last year Tony Abbott doubled his female cabinet representation - to two. Malcolm Turnbull has five: Julie Bishop, who stays as foreign minister and Sussan Ley who stays in health, as well as Payne, O’Dwyer, and Michaelia Cash, who takes employment. All the newcomers were “good and talented women” who Abbott said were “knocking on the door” of cabinet. That door’s now open.

It wasn’t always pretty.

Bruce Billson – the very energetic and now former small business minister – turned down the demotion of the outer ministry cities portfolio, which left an opening for Abbott supporter Jamie Briggs.

Turnbull was upfront that neither of his friends Ian Macfarlane or Michael Ronaldson wanted to finish their ministerial careers. Kevin Andrews took the unusual step of announcing his own demotion before Turnbull unveiled his ministry.

Women take key roles in Malcolm Turnbull’s cabinet. Link to video

Strong speculation suggests the disappointed Joe Hockey may be heading to Washington to replace Kim Beazley as ambassador.

He’s sneaked in little checks and balances.

To secure a new Coalition agreement with the Nationals, Turnbull agreed to transfer responsibility for water policy (although not the water trigger in the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act) to the agriculture minister, Barnaby Joyce, from the environment minister, Greg Hunt. Last week he said environmentalists should not be too concerned about this because the bulk of the work on water reform had been finished. In the fineprint of the reshuffle he also made South Australian senator Anne Ruston assistant minister for water, giving that state an assurance of close scrutiny of any decisions that might impact on its supply of water.

Arthur Sinodinos, whose careful management style as John Howard’s chief of staff was a factor in the former prime minister’s longevity in government, has become cabinet secretary. In fact with Howard’s former “enforcer” Tony Nutt overseeing the prime ministerial transition and his old press secretary Tony O’Leary lending a hand for a while, the office changeover had a back to the future flavour.

He had the good sense not to give Christopher Pyne the defence portfolio.

Pyne had been tipped to take the defence portfolio, even though that appointment would have raised a perception that he would favour his home state of South Australia in the $50bn submarine contract currently the subject of a competitive evaluation process. Turnbull gave him industry, innovation and science instead, a portfolio he says is critical to Australia’s economic future.

More change is coming.

Turnbull – an enthusiastic user of public transport – indicated he would ditch the Abbott government’s decree that federal funding would flow only to roads, leaving the states to handle public transport. There was “no place for ideology” in transport funding, he said.

Government sources also predict the quiet ditching of so-called “lawfare” changes to stop challenges to developments under federal environment laws, like the one that delayed Adani’s $16bn Carmichael mine, which were already facing defeat in the Senate.

Turnbull’s promise to the Nationals to take controversial competition law changes back to cabinet takes on a whole new meaning now the small business minister is the economic dry Kelly O’Dwyer rather than the enthusiastic advocate for the changes, the now dumped Bruce Billson.

And, says the new prime minister, all governments need to review policies, and if they’re not efficient, to change them. The cabinet meets tomorrow afternoon, right after being sworn in, to get started.