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The unsung story about the 2019 general election campaign is how vital Barack Obama’s endorsement was to Justin Trudeau’s victory.

That’s a pretty broad statement, given there were so many twists and turns in the 40 day campaign. But if there was the turning point that secured the win, it was the former president’s backing of Trudeau five days before Canadians went to the polls, according to a number of senior members of Team Trudeau.

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The Liberals in the war-room entered the Thanksgiving weekend, just 10 days before election day, in despondent mood. The key strategists – Gerry Butts, Tom Pitfield, Jeremy Broadhurst, Brian Clow, Kate Purchase and Katie Telford – had opted for a narrative that positioned Trudeau as a stark contrast to Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer.

But an ad that compared the Liberal tax cut plan with a similar Conservative offering was failing to move the needle. The Liberals were stalled, as voters dismissed both contenders for prime minister as liars. Worse, Jagmeet Singh’s impressive performance in the English language leaders’ debate suggested the NDP might be on the move, creating vote splits that could have seen Scheer win the election by default.

We ran with it

That outcome was made less likely by Scheer’s decision to unveil the Conservative platform in almost covert fashion on the Friday before the long weekend. The Conservative policy offering contained enough cuts to public services to allow the Liberals to pounce. “It was an error on their part, maybe an unavoidable one. But it was a confusing message: ‘It’s time for you to get ahead’ but we’re going to cut your services,” said one senior strategist.

The Liberals pumped out ads about the platform on Facebook and Twitter, even as it was being released, branded with the hashtag #scheercuts. “That made people swing back and take a second look at Trudeau,” said the insider.

The campaign team had no time to direct its advertising agency to produce any glossy attack ads and was forced to produce content in-house, featuring Scheer and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, hands aloft in triumph, over the headline “Stop Conservative Cuts”.

The ad tested well with focus groups, lifting the Liberal vote share nearly three per cent among NDP and Conservative voters. “We knew with confidence this could work,” said the digital strategist. It was released Canada-wide on high rotation in targeted ridings where the NDP’s growth threatened to profit the Conservatives. The effort was all but imperceptible in the public opinion polls but was important in starting to reverse the slide in Liberal fortunes.