Preseason has begun. Basketball is back. We get to watch bad international teams get spanked by NBA teams that are hardly trying. It’s preview season!

We move forward with the Indiana Pacers.

2018-19 Finish: 48-34, 5th in East

Who’s in: Goga Bitadze (18th overall pick), T.J. Warren (trade), Malcolm Brogdon (sign and trade), Jeremy Lamb (free agency), T.J. McConnell (free agency), Justin Holiday (free agency), Jakarr Sampson (free agency)

Who’s out: Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA), Darren Collison (retired), Thaddeus Young (CHI), Cory Joseph (SAC), Kyle O’Quinn (PHI), Wesley Matthews (MIL)

Starters

PG – Malcolm Brogdon

SG – Victor Oladipo

SF – T.J. Warren

PF – Domantas Sabonis

C – Myles Turner

Bench: Jeremy Lamb, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Holiday, Justin Holiday, Goga Bitadze, T.J. Leaf, Doug McDermott

Sneaky Breakout Candidate: Aaron Holiday looked impressive in limited minutes last season, showing potential as a playmaker and shooter. With Collison gone and Victor Oladipo out for a few months, Holiday should get a fair shot to start the season. He won’t be asked to do too much, but he can definitely contribute right away.

What Happened Last Year?

Indiana began the season well under Victor Oladipo to begin the season, sitting snugly near the top of the Eastern Conference through January. Unfortunately, Oladipo suffered a ruptured quad on Jan. 23 vs Toronto, ending his season. The Pacers stayed afloat for a few months, finishing 5th in the East, but were overmatched in their first round series with Boston, losing in four games.

2019-20 Analysis

Indiana is slept on as a well-run franchise. Very few teams would be able to stomach some of the strokes of bad luck the Pacers have been handed over the last decade, but they’ve stayed afloat and even exceeded expectations year after year. They’ve made the playoffs in eight of the last nine years, and would be batting a thousand in that department if Paul George didn’t break his leg. They do good business in Indiana.

That’s why it isn’t a shock that the Pacers creatively improved their roster this summer, despite not being a top free agent destination or holding many prized assets. The T.J. Warren trade was a complete heist; he’s appropriately paid, a professional scorer and a vastly improved shooter. Indiana literally stole him from the Suns! If Warren’s shooting from last season holds, he gives them a badly needed secondary scorer next to Oladipo and the young bigs. Early returns have been positive in preseason. Malcolm Brogdon’s price was a bit steep- 85 million fully guaranteed dollars and a first round pick- but he fits snugly into what the Pacers like to do on offense (hit threes, keep the ball moving, and attack closeouts) and defense (fluidly switch all over the perimeter). Brogdon and Oladipo’s ability to play either guard spot gives Indiana vital lineup flexibility, and The President ™️ should be just fine at steadying the ship while Oladipo recovers from injury. Jeremy Lamb was another good value signing for the Pacers, giving them 75% of what Bojan Bogdnaovic brought for a fraction of the price.

Indiana will try to make a Myles Turner and Domatas Sabonis front court work. Offensively it should be fine, with Turner stretching out defenses and punishing slow centers and Sabonis nook and cranny-ing his way around small ball fours in the post, although one of them will need to start being more liberal with the amount of threes they take (Sabonis has it in him to be a shooting threat). Defensively though, Sabonis isn’t quick enough to defend perimeter oriented fours, and while Turner is one of the more switchable traditional fives in the league, taking him away from the rim reduces his impact as a shot blocker. They both seem motivated to make it work; if it does, they become a matchup nightmare for 95% of the league.

Indiana’s bench should be solid. T.J. McConnell and Aaron Holiday are quick, decisive floor generals and pesky defenders. Justin Holiday makes some mind-numbing mistakes with the ball in his hands, but he won’t be asked to do nearly as much as he’s had to do in Chicago and Memphis here, and he has the capability to hit tough, microwave jumpers. T.J. Leaf and Goga Bitadze are unproven, but each are naturally skilled enough to fill in at backup center in a pinch (Sabonis will still get a fair share of backup five minutes anyway). Doug McDermott and shoot the ball. He doesn’t do much else, but hey, it helps. Losing Thad Young hurts; look for Indiana to find a more reliable replacement on the trade market.

In the end, it all really depends on Oladipo’s return. He’s probably not going to see the court before 2020, and even a January return might be pushing it. They’ll take it slow with him at first; it’s an absolutely brutal injury, and a unique one too. There isn’t much precedence for how to handle a comeback for a ruptured quad. If Oladipo looks like his former self by March or April, Indiana is frightening, and probably the clear cut third best team in the East. They’d be a mid-sized move away from becoming more than just a dark-horse finals contender. But again, we’ll have to wait and see.

Record prediction: 47-35

The Final Line: Indiana is still really good, with enough depth to compete without their best player for 30 or so games. A few major additions and the trial period of what they hope is their front court of the future might take some time to iron out early on in the season, which could lead to some more losses than you’d hope. If Oladipo can make an impact in his return, Indiana will be a tough team to beat.