Donald Trump has bet his presidency that his trade wars won't affect U.S. consumers as he seeks to rewrite – or end – international trade deals.

While U.S. exporters – farmers and manufacturers – are anxiously looking on as the Trump Administration demands terms to re-shore American jobs, the average consumer isn’t seeing any fallout. Yet.

Nowhere is thatcomforting disconnected bliss more boldly on display than at the American supermarket where there is only mild inflation underway.

But that could change as Trump plays hardball with Canada – a critical source of beef, seafood and processed goods from chocolate and cookies, to bread and cake mix. Trade tensions are also mounting with China.

America's dependence on imported foods has soared to all-time highs with shoppers snapping up more than $137 billion in 2017.

Imports now account for 20-25 percent of total U.S. supermarket sales. Those sales are more than triple what they were at the start of the millennium.

More than a third of fruits and vegetables purchased by American shoppers are imported. Ditto, on cookies and chocolates. And nearly a fifth of meat consumed by Americans come from abroad.

Trump hasn't slapped tariffs on food imports yet, but he has threatened to scrap the rest of the North American Free Trade Agreement if Canada won't agree to better, America-First terms. Talks with Canada are approaching a critical Oct. 1 deadline.

Trade experts warn trashing NAFTA is an extreme step that could disrupt the long-established flow of goods between trading partners – including nearly $24 billion worth of food imported from Canada annually.

While Ohio trade attorney Dan Ujczo believes Trump is angling to win the best terms and expects Canada and the U.S. will ultimately cut a deal, he concedes there are real dangers.

If NAFTA was killed without a replacement pact, Canada's trade status would revert to "Most Favored Nation" – and a raft of older, higher taxes would be levied on all imports. A wave of inflation would likely hit food next year on both imported, and then domestic goods.

For example, Canadian cucumbers – which the US imported more than $203 million worth of in 2017 – would go from being duty-free to subject to a 9.6 percent tariff (tax).

"If it gets to that, there's a whole host of horribles," said Ujczo, at Columbus firm Dickinson Wright. He noted U.S. steel producers upped their prices after tariffs made foreign steel more expensive. "You'll see inflationary pressures."

Soothing elevator music in aisles for now

Right now, at the supermarket, there's no sign of any possible trouble ahead.

At Kroger Marketplace in the Oakley neighborhood of Cincinnati, several local shoppers haven't even noticed inflation's return to food prices.

"I try not to sacrifice what I eat. If prices go up, I get fewer extras, like sweets," said Diana Vera, a 36-year-old high school teacher who lives in Fairfax. She added she closely watches produce prices, where she's noticed tomatoes and avocadoes edge up, but seen bananas ebb.

During the first 18 months of the Trump Administration, inflation on food purchased for consumed at home has climbed 1.2 percent versus an overall inflation rate of 2.8 percent.

Annemarie Kuhns, an economist with the US Department of Agriculture, said international trade has contributed to the slow growth in prices.

Overall food prices declined in 2016 and 2017 for the first time since the 1960s thanks to bumper crops and few major disruptions. But a strong U.S. dollar also helped flood America with cheaper food in two ways:

"Imports were cheap and more plentiful and exports slowed and the food stayed here," Kuhns said.

Total sales of imported food last year were nearly double what they were a decade ago. If all imported food were itself a supermarket chain, it would be larger than Kroger and every other U.S. grocer besides Walmart.

America's biggest food importers are the same trading partners Trump is fighting with: the European Union, which sold $27 billion of goods; Mexico, which exported $26 billion to the U.S.; Canada, nearly $24 billion; and China, which sold $6.2 billion.

Still, trade tensions haven't hit U.S. consumers' grocery bill yet.

"Seafood will probably see an increase, but right now there's little impact," said Brian Todd, CEO of the Food Institute, an industry research group.

Crazy or crazy like a fox?

No one watching Trump's NAFTA gambit really believes the US will scrap the trade agreement with such a huge partner without a new pact to replace it.

Canada and Mexico are too important.

But Trump's reputation for erratic behavior and rash decision-making has strengthened his bargaining position – for now. The prospect of the US cutting a deal with Mexico alone has scared Canadian negotiators back to the table.

In late August, Trump announced a revised NAFTA deal proposal with Mexico (that the next Congress must approve in 2019). Negotiators have until Oct. 1 to hammer out a pact to include Canada in the NAFTA overhaul.

Otherwise, Trump has threatened to pull out of the pact with Canada.

But if Trump actually pulled out of NAFTA without a new deal, the consequences would be severe and swift. And the political fallout would be dire.

If Canada is treated like a "Most Favored Nation," thousands of food staples would switch from duty-free to subject to tariffs (taxes) – and a wave of food inflation would likely hit U.S. consumers.

Imported beef would get a 4 percent tax; ketchup, a 6 percent tax; cereals like corn flakes would get a 1 percent tax; tomatoes, a 12.5 percent; onions, 3.6 percent; and potatoes, 6.4 percent.

Well, most-favored nations don't pay a tariff on bread and related baked goods, but they do on wheat and other grains. Consumers planning Memorial Day picnics could end up eating hamburgers and hotdogs that cost more with condiments that cost more on buns that cost more. "Trump's deal with Mexico is political gold and if he gets a deal with Canada, it's political platinum," Ujczo said. "But this is high risk, high reward."

For the latest on Kroger, P&G, Fifth Third Bank and Cincinnati business news, follow @alexcoolidge on Twitter.

Trump era trade tensions hit P&G