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It’s not easy being Glenn Stevens.

While investors are betting the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver additional easing to lift an economy hit by the commodities slump, the central bank chief disappointed them this week by leaving the cash target unchanged at 2.25 percent. As he weighs the effect of 2.5 percentage points of reductions so far, he can’t help but notice house prices are buoyant, household debt is rising and borrowing by non-resource businesses is beginning to grow.

The RBA “judged that it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being,” and will assess the case for additional cuts at future meetings, Stevens said in his statement Tuesday. With iron ore lingering below $50 a ton for the first time in at least a decade, unemployment near a 12-year high and business sentiment in the doldrums, traders are betting that another cut is almost certain by June.

The following charts illustrate the balancing act RBA policy makers face and some of the indicators that may have given them reason to prolong their pause in the face of a market that had priced in a 75 percent chance of an April easing.

CHART 1. Sydney housing prices are rising “strongly” even as the prices of some commodities have fallen off “sharply,” Stevens said this week. The residential property price gains in the nation’s most populous city have spurred concern that RBA stimulus may be overheating the market, while the price of iron ore has collapsed 60 percent over the past year, creating a drag on Australia’s economy.

CHART 2. The RBA’s rate cuts have driven corporate bond yields to record lows and, as the central bank noted Tuesday, lending to businesses has been strengthening.

CHART 3. While there has been a sharp drop-off in capital expenditure by the mining industry, other parts of the economy are increasing their spending.

CHART 4. Despite this, the “animal spirits” that Glenn Stevens has sought to summon are far from abundant in the world’s 12th largest economy. With confidence languishing and unemployment high, investors are betting rate cuts are a matter of time.

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