Faisal Islam, Political Editor

So what was the PM's offer to Nissan? What goodies did the Business Secretary supply in his flying visit to Tokyo?

I can tell you that Madam Prime Minister promised the Nissan boss that the UK would stay in Europe's Common Market.

The year was 1982, when Mrs Thatcher flew to Tokyo to meet Mr Kawamata - and the full account of that then secret meeting is in a minute released under the Thirty Year Rule and available in the archives of the Thatcher Foundation.

Some 34 years on, and three decades exactly after the UK's first female PM opened the Nissan plant, another PM steps into save it. A great coup for Theresa May, for Greg Clark and for the workers of that plant.


To have lost Sunderland would have been a stain on Conservative Party history.

If Nissan believes the UK is going to stay a place to make cars into the 2020s - the UK is not leaving the Customs Union, at least not till then, and perhaps not at all.

Margaret Thatcher visited Nissan as Opposition Leader. It was Mrs Thatcher who visited Nissan's HQ in 1982 and persuaded the then chairman to come to the UK with an assurance that "there was no realistic prospect of Britain leaving the EEC" because of "the dependence of Britain on exports to Europe".

The car industry in Europe was basically the prototype for the Single Market. Tariff free, a massive market of customers with supply chains of parts dispersed around Europe and integrated for practically instant "just-in-time" delivery.

The "Forging Joint" might be German, the "Tripod" from France, and the "Forging Tripod" from Spain, to quote a real example of what is then assembled at GKN Driveline's factory in Redditch, before the driveline system is then supplied to a UK car factory, which then often exports the final car back to Europe.

Depending on manufacturer, between 20% to 50% of the value of the supply chain is imported from the EU. Less than half, about 40% of the total value of spend, is currently sourced in the UK. There are Government ambitions to increase this to 50%, and this might be helped by the weak value of sterling after the Brexit vote.

What this business model will not be helped by, and indeed, will not survive, is the need to check in every part and subpart imported from Europe for its origin.

Just-in-time delivery means a part delayed by two hours can shut down an entire automotive production line.

The idea that a customs officer at Felixstowe, or Rotterdam or Southampton or wherever will be checking the widgets shipped into Sunderland to make the new Qashqai, is as far from car industry expectations of competitiveness as can be imagined.

And the same goes for aviation too.

So if Nissan believes the UK is going to stay a place to make cars into the 2020s - the UK is not leaving the Customs Union, at least not till then, and perhaps not at all.

It is true that a battle has been raging in Cabinet about this issue.

One particularly poor argument put forward is that we need to leave the Customs Union, so that Liam Fox can have a job worth doing at the Department for International Trade.

Brexit is not a make-work scheme for Conservative MPs. While it is true that Britain needs to leave in order to strike important trade deals across the world (and not be bound by the Common External Tariff), the Department for International Trade will be more than busy enough for many, many years merely trying to replicate and grandfather dozens of trade arrangements negotiated by the EU.

After the Korean PM expressed bewilderment during the G20 summit at what was to occur after Brexit to a rather successful Korea-EU trade deal, UK trade diplomats flew to Seoul to try to work it out.

In fact the smart money is on the UK trying to piggyback on the EU deals. TTIP, for example, envisages a role for third parties, as well as the EU and US. Why has Britain continued to take an active role in CETA the now-revived Canadian deal with the EU?

Staying in the Customs Union also makes sense of the pledges made to Northern Ireland and Ireland for there to be no new "hard border".

The PM actually conceded the notion of at least partially or perhaps transitionally remaining in the Customs Union at PMQs on Wednesday. She said: "The important point about the Customs Union is that the way in which you deal with the Customs Union is not a binary choice … There are different aspects to the Customs Union, which is precisely why it is important to look at the detail and get the answer right, not simply make statements."

Prominent Vote Leavers talk longingly of the idea of the car industry alone staying in the Customs Union - after all, Turkey has some but not all goods trade covered.

That would require goodwill and mutual interest from the EU 27. But the direction of travel is clear - no clean break with the Customs Union.

And how about this? In recent days, Business Secretary Greg Clark explained to me in relation to his discussions with Nissan: "We did talk about the Brexit negotiations, and it is very important that businesses like Nissan and the other very important businesses in the UK economy help shape our negotiations mandate."

The words were chosen carefully. Nissan has announced it is staying in Sunderland. The Cabinet minister who forged the deal now specifically wants Nissan and companies like it to "help shape" the mandate for negotiations. It needs a minimum of the entire sector remaining in the Customs Union. Or perhaps full membership of the Customs Union for a transition period lasting years.

Sky Views is a new series of comment pieces by Sky News editors and correspondents, published every weekday morning.

Previously on Sky Views: Ian King - Economy hit by ignoring tourism