A new study funded by the EU forecasts the likely evolution of European electricity markets between 2020 and 2050 and estimates how far renewable electricity projects will be able to finance themselves in this period without the need for public subsidies.

The study suggests that after 2020 subsidies for some mature renewable technologies may no longer be necessary, partly due to lowered costs, but also as a result of possible reforms of the EU's Emissions Trading System. Subsidies would still remain necessary after 2020 for less mature technologies such as offshore wind.

This study uses several different scenarios to model the development of European electricity markets between 2020 and 2050. It estimates that around €25 billion a year will be needed for government investment in renewable sources of energy between 2020 and 2030. As part of its Framework for climate and energy, the EU aims for 27% of energy consumed in 2030 in Europe to be from renewable sources. It has also set the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% (compared with 1990) by 2050.

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