Have you ever been on a team where your velocity suffered wild variances? Maybe you ended up using a running average instead of yesterday's weather?

Have you heard phrases like, "Well, our velocity last iteration was 3, but our average is still 22"?

Have you ever heard the phrase, "Dude, we need to get this velocity stable."

Have you worked on teams where they took partial credit for done at the end of the iteration? Where maybe you'd split a card strictly on points and award some apportion to the current iteration and assign the remainder of the card to the next iteration.

Velocity should stabilize

It seems much of what we read tells us that velocity will do two things; stabilize and improve. According to the VersionOne Agile 101, we can expect that velocity will stabilize within three to six months. The Agile Sherpa tells us it usually takes 3-4 iterations for velocity to stabilize at a consistent level. James Shore's "The Art of Agile" tells us to give it three or four iterations to stabilize.

But what if velocity doesn't stabilize?

First, take a deep breath; and then repeat after me:

If you have an erratic velocity, it is telling you of a problem. And your problem is not an erratic velocity.

"Velocity is a health indicator. Velocity is a health indicator. Velocity is a health indicator. Velocity is ..."

Velocity lets us know how things are going. It reveals issues to us in sometimes subtle ways.

Think of velocity as heart rate. An abnormal heart rate, be it too fast, too slow, or irregular can indicate a number of underlying issues such as electrolyte imbalance, overstimulation, insufficient rest, autoimmune disorders, thyroid problems, or various forms of heart disease. If you have an abnormal heart rate, it is telling you of a problem. And your problem is not an abnormal heart rate.

An erratic velocity can indicate a number of underlying issues such as poor story composition, dependencies on other teams or individuals, too much work in progress, silos, and various forms of mismanagement. If you have an erratic velocity, it is telling you of a problem. And your problem is not an erratic velocity.

Whatever the underlying problem, it is something you can adjust. Adjustments for which you can observe the outcome. But the important thing to remember is that the velocity is not the problem. Do not try to fix the velocity. Try to figure out what it is telling you and fix that.

What should I adjust?

...poor story composition, dependencies on other teams or individuals, too much work in progress, silos, and various forms of mismanagement.

If an erratic velocity could be telling me any number of things, then how do I know what to adjust? Ask your team. They probably know. They may not know they know, but they can give you indicators.

Let's look through some of the common underlying causes.

Poor story composition