We started the 2015 NFL Season with what seemed like divisional parity. That has all but vanished.

This has been a rather interesting NFL season to me through the first 6 weeks. A lot of preconceived notions have been blown away. The Seahawks opened the season at number 1 on a couple rankings, and the Falcons were hovering around 23rd. Some pundits had the Chiefs in their top-10, and they've been anything but world-beaters (even before Jamaal Charles went down).

That's not to say everyone was wrong about every team, I just like to point this out because as many fans like to deride statistical analysis: this is why games are played on the field and not in spreadsheets.

Notable Quotes

The Chargers rank 29th in yards per rush (3.6) this season and last in yards per rush allowed (5.4). That's putting a lot on the shoulders of Philip Rivers. - ESPN

If they're not going to win, it would at least be fun to see Philip Rivers become the league's first 5,500-yard passer. - USA Today

The Chargers could be a playoff team. Yet, their approach -- specifically that of coach Mike McCoy -- puts the entire outcome on the shoulders of Philip Rivers. The franchise quarterback calls much of the offense from the line of scrimmage, and he carries the burden of having to play at an elite level all the time for San Diego to win. It should be noted that Rivers did have Danny Woodhead open in the flat on that second-and-goal incompletion to Antonio Gates in the closing moments of the loss to Green Bay. It should also be noted that, had the game seeped into overtime, Rivers (503 passing yards on 65 attempts) could have threatened one of the oldest records on the NFL's books: Norm Van Brocklin's 554 passing yards, set in 1951. - NFL.com

Division Averages

Division Week 6 Average Week 7 Average Difference AFC East 11.932 10.136 1.796 AFC North 13.773 14.170 -0.397 NFC West 14.580 15.080 -0.500 NFC East 15.523 15.830 -0.307 NFC South 17.443 16.500 0.943 NFC North 17.477 17.398 0.079 AFC West 16.773 17.727 -0.954 AFC South 24.500 25.159 -0.659

What did I say? It's an NFC sandwich, nestled between AFC bread. It's kind of interesting because to start the season there was a perfect AFC-NFC alternating order of the divisions.

Stock Rising

Team Week 6 Average Week 7 Average Difference MIA 26.955 19.545 7.410 PHI 14.773 9.500 5.273 NO 26.727 22.545 4.182 SF 26.818 23.409 3.409 HOU 28.636 25.636 3.000

I mean, I know the Dolphins looked impressive against the Titans on Sunday, but jumping 8 spots? On the flip-side, I've been saying for weeks that the Eagles aren't as bad as people want to make them out to be.

Stock Falling

Team Week 6 Average Week 7 Average Difference TEN 24.364 28.591 -4.227 WAS 18.864 22.545 -3.681 BAL 19.955 23.500 -3.545 NYG 11.182 14.318 -3.136 SEA 9.773 12.727 -2.954

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.091 Packers 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2.364 -0.364 Bengals 5 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2.818 0.273 Panthers 6 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4.273 2.727 Broncos 3 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4.818 -0.272 Jets 8 6 6 9 5 6 7 7 7 8 6 6.818 1.637 Falcons 7 8 7 7 10 8 6 6 8 6 9 7.455 -2.364 Steelers 10 7 10 6 7 7 8 8 6 9 8 7.818 2.818 Cardinals 4 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 8.000 -2.545 Vikings 15 9 9 11 9 10 10 13 10 10 10 10.546 2.181 Eagles 9 12 12 12 11 12 11 10 11 12 12 11.273 6.363 Colts 11 13 11 10 12 19 13 12 13 13 11 12.546 0.363 Giants 14 17 17 14 15 14 14 11 14 14 13 14.273 -3.637 Bills 17 15 15 15 16 17 12 14 12 11 14 14.364 -2.818 Seahawks 12 19 14 13 13 16 16 15 18 15 15 15.091 -4.455 Rams 18 11 18 17 14 11 15 19 15 16 16 15.455 0.181 Chargers 13 20 13 16 18 21 17 20 16 17 17 17.091 -0.636 Cowboys 16 16 16 21 22 13 21 16 24 18 18 18.273 0.000 Dolphins 21 14 23 29 19 15 22 17 21 22 20 20.273 6.636 Raiders 23 24 24 19 23 18 18 18 22 20 19 20.727 -0.454 Browns 27 21 26 22 17 20 20 23 17 19 22 21.273 -0.818 49ers 19 18 22 20 21 26 23 24 20 23 23 21.727 5.455 Saints 20 22 21 18 26 23 27 25 19 24 21 22.364 5.454 Redskins 22 23 28 26 20 22 19 22 23 21 25 22.818 -3.636 Bears 25 30 19 30 24 24 24 26 25 25 26 25.273 -3.637 Texans 26 25 20 23 25 27 25 27 27 29 24 25.273 4.727 Buccaneers 31 27 25 27 27 25 26 21 28 28 27 26.546 -0.910 Ravens 28 31 31 24 28 28 28 28 29 26 30 28.273 -5.091 Lions 24 28 27 25 29 29 31 31 30 30 28 28.364 3.091 Chiefs 29 29 29 31 30 30 30 29 26 27 29 29.000 -4.727 Titans 30 26 30 32 31 31 29 30 31 31 31 30.182 -4.364 Jaguars 32 32 32 28 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.636 -1.272

Observations:

Patriots are finally the unanimous top pick.

Packers defense got burned by Philip Rivers on Sunday, better drop them down a spot or two.

Bengals on the rise and threatening to overthrow the Packers.

Take a look at the top 5. There are currently 5 undefeated teams in the NFL, all five of those teams are in the top 5 of this board. This should highlight that many pundits look at little else than current record.

Amusing that the Cowboys didn't move at all this week, with every other team moving this week.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.288 Packers 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 0.481 0.055 Panthers 6 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0.617 -0.236 Broncos 3 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 0.716 -0.066 Bengals 5 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 0.833 0.165 Eagles 9 12 12 12 11 12 11 10 11 12 12 0.962 -1.460 Jets 8 6 6 9 5 6 7 7 7 8 6 1.113 -0.192 Jaguars 32 32 32 28 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 1.150 -0.461 Falcons 7 8 7 7 10 8 6 6 8 6 9 1.233 0.333 Steelers 10 7 10 6 7 7 8 8 6 9 8 1.336 -0.384 Chiefs 29 29 29 31 30 30 30 29 26 27 29 1.348 -1.385 Titans 30 26 30 32 31 31 29 30 31 31 31 1.527 -1.130 Cardinals 4 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 1.537 0.461 Giants 14 17 17 14 15 14 14 11 14 14 13 1.601 0.451 Vikings 15 9 9 11 9 10 10 13 10 10 10 1.777 -0.562 Bills 17 15 15 15 16 17 12 14 12 11 14 1.920 0.547 Ravens 28 31 31 24 28 28 28 28 29 26 30 1.958 -0.291 Seahawks 12 19 14 13 13 16 16 15 18 15 15 2.021 -0.286 Lions 24 28 27 25 29 29 31 31 30 30 28 2.186 1.530 49ers 19 18 22 20 21 26 23 24 20 23 23 2.260 0.564 Colts 11 13 11 10 12 19 13 12 13 13 11 2.271 0.541 Texans 26 25 20 23 25 27 25 27 27 29 24 2.300 1.346 Buccaneers 31 27 25 27 27 25 26 21 28 28 27 2.350 0.983 Raiders 23 24 24 19 23 18 18 18 22 20 19 2.378 0.374 Chargers 13 20 13 16 18 21 17 20 16 17 17 2.503 0.627 Redskins 22 23 28 26 20 22 19 22 23 21 25 2.516 0.875 Rams 18 11 18 17 14 11 15 19 15 16 16 2.536 0.764 Saints 20 22 21 18 26 23 27 25 19 24 21 2.772 0.735 Bears 25 30 19 30 24 24 24 26 25 25 26 2.863 0.806 Browns 27 21 26 22 17 20 20 23 17 19 22 3.078 1.107 Cowboys 16 16 16 21 22 13 21 16 24 18 18 3.165 0.399 Dolphins 21 14 23 29 19 15 22 17 21 22 20 3.933 0.786

Observations:

ESPN a little bit of an outlier on the Eagles.

Dolphins all over the board (14th to 29th).

PFT doesn't like the Colts compared to everyone else.

Consensus on the Chargers is getting worse

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.182 0.182 Packers 3 2 2 6 5 8 2 2 2 2 4 3.455 -0.728 Bengals 4 5 4 8 4 6 4 3 3 4 7 4.727 0.546 Cardinals 2 6 5 16 3 2 3 9 5 8 2 5.546 -1.000 Steelers 6 7 6 7 7 4 6 6 7 6 5 6.091 0.909 Jets 5 9 9 5 1 3 7 7 9 14 6 6.818 1.909 Broncos 10 3 3 12 8 11 14 4 4 3 12 7.636 -0.909 Eagles 7 8 8 4 10 5 11 10 10 9 3 7.727 4.182 Panthers 11 10 11 15 6 14 5 5 6 7 13 9.364 1.909 Falcons 15 18 10 1 9 7 9 8 8 11 9 9.546 -2.182 Seahawks 8 4 7 18 17 12 12 11 12 5 8 10.364 -1.455 Bills 9 16 12 10 14 10 8 13 13 15 10 11.818 -1.454 Giants 12 21 14 9 13 9 13 16 14 17 20 14.364 -2.637 Vikings 25 11 13 19 12 17 10 12 11 13 19 14.727 1.455 Cowboys 23 19 15 3 25 16 15 14 15 12 15 15.636 0.637 Colts 17 12 17 20 23 23 27 15 18 10 11 17.546 -0.637 Chargers 19 17 19 21 16 19 22 18 16 20 18 18.636 0.455 Ravens 13 13 16 32 19 18 23 20 22 16 14 18.727 -2.000 Dolphins 22 15 18 11 22 20 19 22 19 23 16 18.818 8.182 Rams 14 20 21 14 20 15 29 17 17 24 22 19.364 -1.546 Chiefs 16 14 20 25 29 25 20 25 20 19 17 20.909 -0.636 Redskins 20 27 23 13 15 13 26 28 25 29 26 22.273 -3.727 Saints 24 23 22 31 24 21 21 21 21 21 21 22.727 2.909 Raiders 18 28 26 24 11 24 18 24 24 27 29 23.000 -0.454 Browns 21 25 25 26 27 22 16 23 26 26 23 23.636 0.182 49ers 32 26 27 17 32 26 28 19 23 18 28 25.091 1.364 Texans 30 24 28 27 21 29 25 27 28 22 25 26.000 1.273 Lions 27 22 24 22 28 28 32 29 29 25 24 26.364 0.363 Titans 26 30 30 29 18 27 17 31 31 31 27 27.000 -4.091 Bears 31 29 29 23 26 30 30 26 27 28 30 28.091 -1.727 Buccaneers 29 31 31 28 30 32 24 30 30 30 32 29.727 0.000 Jaguars 28 32 32 30 31 31 31 32 32 32 31 31.091 -1.273

Observations:

Patriots on top of the Objective board, though it's not unanimous.

Football Outsiders has the Broncos at 10th. Per DVOA, the Broncos has have the best Defense in the league, but the worst (!) offense. Their Defense is better than their Offense is bad, and they have a decent Special Teams, so it all adds up to a top-10 team still.

Chargers, despite the loss, still rose a little in the rankings.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.386 -0.095 Steelers 6 7 6 7 7 4 6 6 7 6 5 0.900 -0.145 Jaguars 28 32 32 30 31 31 31 32 32 32 31 1.164 -1.458 Bengals 4 5 4 8 4 6 4 3 3 4 7 1.543 0.123 Chargers 19 17 19 21 16 19 22 18 16 20 18 1.823 0.444 Packers 3 2 2 6 5 8 2 2 2 2 4 1.971 0.919 Buccaneers 29 31 31 28 30 32 24 30 30 30 32 2.136 -0.461 Bears 31 29 29 23 26 30 30 26 27 28 30 2.275 -1.821 Bills 9 16 12 10 14 10 8 13 13 15 10 2.480 0.986 Eagles 7 8 8 4 10 5 11 10 10 9 3 2.562 -1.017 Texans 30 24 28 27 21 29 25 27 28 22 25 2.730 0.240 Saints 24 23 22 31 24 21 21 21 21 21 21 2.863 0.556 Browns 21 25 25 26 27 22 16 23 26 26 23 3.023 0.899 Lions 27 22 24 22 28 28 32 29 29 25 24 3.053 -0.054 Jets 5 9 9 5 1 3 7 7 9 14 6 3.325 -0.562 Dolphins 22 15 18 11 22 20 19 22 19 23 16 3.486 -0.056 Panthers 11 10 11 15 6 14 5 5 6 7 13 3.549 -0.543 Giants 12 21 14 9 13 9 13 16 14 17 20 3.724 0.337 Cardinals 2 6 5 16 3 2 3 9 5 8 2 4.031 0.557 Broncos 10 3 3 12 8 11 14 4 4 3 12 4.118 0.678 Falcons 15 18 10 1 9 7 9 8 8 11 9 4.142 0.369 Seahawks 8 4 7 18 17 12 12 11 12 5 8 4.291 -0.291 Chiefs 16 14 20 25 29 25 20 25 20 19 17 4.358 0.135 Rams 14 20 21 14 20 15 29 17 17 24 22 4.396 0.808 Vikings 25 11 13 19 12 17 10 12 11 13 19 4.454 1.902 Titans 26 30 30 29 18 27 17 31 31 31 27 4.786 -1.545 49ers 32 26 27 17 32 26 28 19 23 18 28 4.999 0.770 Raiders 18 28 26 24 11 24 18 24 24 27 29 5.081 0.501 Colts 17 12 17 20 23 23 27 15 18 10 11 5.159 -0.359 Ravens 13 13 16 32 19 18 23 20 22 16 14 5.310 1.843 Cowboys 23 19 15 3 25 16 15 14 15 12 15 5.482 0.526 Redskins 20 27 23 13 15 13 26 28 25 29 26 5.770 -1.084

Observations:

Good luck trying to figure out Washington or Dallas. What's wrong with the Ravens this year? Nobody knows!



Aikman's ratings sure does like the Raiders.

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value Patriots 1.000 1.182 1.091 0.136 Packers 2.364 3.455 2.909 -0.545 Bengals 2.818 4.727 3.773 0.409 Broncos 4.818 7.636 6.227 -0.591 Cardinals 8.000 5.546 6.773 -1.773 Jets 6.818 6.818 6.818 1.773 Panthers 4.273 9.364 6.818 2.318 Steelers 7.818 6.091 6.955 1.863 Falcons 7.455 9.546 8.500 -2.273 Eagles 11.273 7.727 9.500 5.273 Vikings 10.546 14.727 12.636 1.819 Seahawks 15.091 10.364 12.727 -2.954 Bills 14.364 11.818 13.091 -2.136 Giants 14.273 14.364 14.318 -3.136 Colts 12.546 17.546 15.046 -0.137 Cowboys 18.273 15.636 16.955 0.318 Rams 15.455 19.364 17.409 -0.682 Chargers 17.091 18.636 17.864 -0.091 Dolphins 20.273 18.818 19.545 7.410 Raiders 20.727 23.000 21.864 -0.455 Browns 21.273 23.636 22.455 -0.319 Saints 22.364 22.727 22.545 4.182 Redskins 22.818 22.273 22.545 -3.681 49ers 21.727 25.091 23.409 3.409 Ravens 28.273 18.727 23.500 -3.545 Chiefs 29.000 20.909 24.955 -2.682 Texans 25.273 26.000 25.636 3.000 Bears 25.273 28.091 26.682 -2.682 Lions 28.364 26.364 27.364 1.727 Buccaneers 26.546 29.727 28.136 -0.454 Titans 30.182 27.000 28.591 -4.227 Jaguars 31.636 31.091 31.364 -1.273

Observations:

Patriots getting better, Packers getting worse.

Jets went up just as much as Cardinals went down this week.

Chargers are firmly in the middle of the pack.

Eagles crack the upper-echelon.

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1.000 1.182 0.288 -0.131 Jaguars 31.636 31.091 1.189 -1.004 Steelers 7.818 6.091 1.430 -0.879 Packers 2.364 3.455 1.535 0.654 Bengals 2.818 4.727 1.565 0.009 Chargers 17.091 18.636 2.322 0.213 Jets 6.818 6.818 2.480 -0.422 Texans 25.273 26.000 2.550 0.223 Bills 14.364 11.818 2.557 1.005 Eagles 11.273 7.727 2.624 -1.564 Buccaneers 26.546 29.727 2.752 -0.162 Saints 22.364 22.727 2.824 0.390 Lions 28.364 26.364 2.837 -0.423 Giants 14.273 14.364 2.867 0.280 Bears 25.273 28.091 2.945 -1.066 Falcons 7.455 9.546 3.230 0.261 Browns 21.273 23.636 3.272 0.621 Broncos 4.818 7.636 3.274 0.551 Cardinals 8.000 5.546 3.288 0.677 Panthers 4.273 9.364 3.601 -0.046 Dolphins 20.273 18.818 3.787 0.437 Titans 30.182 27.000 3.892 -1.176 Vikings 10.546 14.727 3.983 0.987 Rams 15.455 19.364 4.086 1.053 Seahawks 15.091 10.364 4.103 0.374 Raiders 20.727 23.000 4.126 0.413 49ers 21.727 25.091 4.228 0.986 Redskins 22.818 22.273 4.459 -0.535 Cowboys 18.273 15.636 4.666 0.530 Colts 12.546 17.546 4.705 0.153 Chiefs 29.000 20.909 5.174 1.093 Ravens 28.273 18.727 6.229 1.876

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value Panthers 4.273 9.364 5.091 0.818 Colts 12.546 17.546 5.000 1.000 Vikings 10.546 14.727 4.182 0.727 Rams 15.455 19.364 3.909 1.727 49ers 21.727 25.091 3.364 4.091 Buccaneers 26.546 29.727 3.182 -0.909 Broncos 4.818 7.636 2.818 0.636 Bears 25.273 28.091 2.818 -1.909 Browns 21.273 23.636 2.364 -1.000 Raiders 20.727 23.000 2.273 0.000 Falcons 7.455 9.546 2.091 -0.182 Bengals 2.818 4.727 1.909 -0.273 Chargers 17.091 18.636 1.546 -1.090 Packers 2.364 3.455 1.091 0.364 Texans 25.273 26.000 0.727 3.454 Saints 22.364 22.727 0.364 2.546 Patriots 1.000 1.182 0.182 -0.091 Giants 14.273 14.364 0.091 -1.000 Jets 6.818 6.818 0.000 -0.273 Redskins 22.818 22.273 -0.546 0.090 Jaguars 31.636 31.091 -0.546 -0.001 Dolphins 20.273 18.818 -1.455 -1.546 Steelers 7.818 6.091 -1.727 1.909 Lions 28.364 26.364 -2.000 2.727 Cardinals 8.000 5.546 -2.455 -1.546 Bills 14.364 11.818 -2.545 -1.363 Cowboys 18.273 15.636 -2.636 -0.636 Titans 30.182 27.000 -3.182 -0.273 Eagles 11.273 7.727 -3.545 2.182 Seahawks 15.091 10.364 -4.727 -3.000 Chiefs 29.000 20.909 -8.091 -4.091 Ravens 28.273 18.727 -9.545 -3.090

Observations:

I know they're undefeated and all, but the Panthers may not be as good as we want to believe just yet.

Is there a pro Colts bias? You better believe it.

The Ravens haven't looked good, no, but they've been playing better than their record would let you believe.

Chiefs, I think, are rightly "under ranked" now because they looked terrible in their first game without Jamaal Charles. This is one of those instances of the pundits reacting faster than the statistics.

Expectations were high in Seattle this year, and while disappointing, the Seahawks are still playing good football.

Eagles still under-ranked, but not criminally so anymore.

Sources