There is a sense going into the Russian Grand Prix this weekend that, for the short term at least, it is the last-chance saloon for Esteban Ocon. The talented young French driver revealed this week he is in talks with Williams for a potential seat in 2019. If he does not secure the drive he will almost certainly be out of Formula One next year. Much as young driver programmes are proving invaluable to making it through the F1 ranks, on a partisan grid they can come back to bite you.

Ocon drives for Force India in his second full season in F1. Before claiming the GP3 title in 2015 he was taken on as part of Mercedes’ young driver programme. At Sochi in 2016 some of the team were already expressing huge admiration for his talent.

With a string of good performances under his belt he was clearly being groomed for a seat at Mercedes. However, circumstances and a volatile driver market turned what had been a smoothly proceeding career on its head. With Force India going into administration and then being bought by a consortium led by Lance Stroll’s father the future became complex. Ocon’s teammate, Sergio Pérez, who brings funding, is expected to remain at Force India and to be joined by Stroll from Williams for 2019.

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Mercedes were already in negotiation to place Ocon at another team as early as July. The team principal, Toto Wolff, said there were two offers, understood to be from Renault and McLaren. Then Renault shocked the paddock by signing Daniel Ricciardo from Red Bull and McLaren chose to take on Carlos Sainz and promote their reserve driver Lando Norris.

An unhappy Wolff referred to it as “politics, hidden agendas and lies”. But for Renault, claiming Ricciardo to race alongside Nico Hülkenberg was a statement of intent that matched their ambition. “We have Renault drivers,” the team’s special adviser Alain Prost said. “Drivers not owned by Red Bull or Mercedes. So we don’t hear on the TV: ‘This driver is on loan to Renault.’”

For Ocon, it left few avenues open and that issue of him being a Mercedes driver did not help. Ferrari have settled their squad with Charles Leclerc joining Sebastian Vettel, and this week their relationship with Sauber put Antonio Giovinazzi alongside Kimi Räikkönen for 2019. Red Bull have confirmed Pierre Gasly with Max Verstappen and there is no room at the inn with sister team Toro Rosso. Their motorsports consultant, Dr Helmut Marko, recently said a driver with a Mercedes contract would probably not even be considered for the two potential seats at Toro Rosso.

Mercedes have Valtteri Bottas under contract until the end of 2019 while Haas, who have a technical relationship with Ferrari, are expected to confirm an already decided lineup that includes Kevin Magnussen shortly.

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Which leaves the only seats remaining at Williams and that is far from clear-cut. Sergey Sirotkin brings funding to the team and his Russian countryman, Artem Markelov, who also brings backing, has been connected with a potential seat, while they also have Robert Kubica poised to make a return.

Ocon and Mercedes’ position is further complicated by the wealth of riches they boast. Britain’s George Russell is the team’s reserve driver and leads the F2 championship. He displays huge promise and has also been in discussions with Williams. Claire Williams has said they will not become a partner team to a manufacturer but an arrangement is conceivable to take one of the two drivers based on an engine and gearbox deal with Mercedes at an advantageous rate.

Wolff has floated the idea of teams running three cars to increase the volume of seats for young talent because of the specific problem for Mercedes. “If you’re lacking either a partner team like Red Bull has with Toro Rosso or contractual relationships like Ferrari has with Sauber, Haas, then it’s very difficult to find the right place for young drivers,” he said.

He has referred to playing “the long game” with both his drivers – the other, of course, being Lewis Hamilton – and stressed that Ocon and Russell are at different points in their careers. Which suggests that he would rather put Russell in a car now and that the likelihood is Ocon will be a reserve driver next year, after which he could be considered for Bottas’s seat.

But having a talent such as Ocon sit out a season is far from ideal. It is made worse by the weight still attached to bringing funding, as Stroll and Pérez do. Wolff has ruled out trying to outbid other drivers’ backers to put his charges in a car.

A scarcity of seats is nothing new in F1, of course, and Ocon may yet be on the grid in 2019, but if he is not it would be a real shame and further indication that perhaps the owners Liberty could address a broader issue – that of making the sport cost effective for new teams, where the champions of the future can learn the ropes.

Wolff is convinced Ocon would be able to prove his worth, given the chance. “One day he is going to be in a Mercedes and win races and championships and show all the others out there that they made a mistake,” he said.