October 14, 2014

Consumer prices in September fell 0.4% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.4% rise recorded in August. The print was virtually in line with the 0.3% drop the markets had expected. As the National Statistics Institute (INSEE) reported, September’s decrease stemmed from lower prices for petroleum products as well as for transport and telecommunications.



Annual inflation inched down from August’s 0.4% to 0.3% in September, which marked the lowest level since October 2009. The core inflation index, which excludes more volatile items such as oil, fruit and vegetables, fell 0.3% month-on-month in September, which contrasted the 0.3% increase tallied in August. Core consumer prices were unchanged over the same month last year in September (August: +0.4% year-on-year).



Annual HICP inflation (based on the harmonized index of consumer prices) edged down from August’s 0.5% to 0.4% in September. Annual average HICP inflation inched down from 0.8% in August to 0.7% in September.

The government expects inflation to average 0.5% this year, before accelerating to 0.9% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect HICP inflation to average 0.9% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2015, panelists project that inflation will accelerate to 1.1%.