Technically, it could be worse: Florida State could be 0-2.

The Seminoles have begun Willie Taggart’s tenure with a three-touchdown loss to Virginia Tech and the narrowest of escapes against FCS’ Samford. They couldn’t block the Hokies, and they couldn’t stop the Bulldogs’ Devlin Hodges from passing all over them. They were held back by turnovers luck against VT, sure, but they needed some luck to beat Samford.

As the season was approaching, I found myself formulating an “It wouldn’t surprise me...” list in my head. The number one item was “FSU catches fire in Taggart’s first season.”

It made a little sense, right? The Noles’ limitations were obvious — uncertain QB situation, iffy offensive line, major question marks at linebacker — but the talent was equally obvious. And the idea of a new coach coming in after last year’s stale campaign, adding tempo and an energy boost, didn’t seem far-fetched.

Technically, you could say something is indeed on fire in Tallahassee right now, but this isn’t quite what I envisioned.

FSU was projected 19th in S&P+, with an average projected win total of 7.2.

Two weeks into those season, the Seminoles are 71st, and their likely win total has shrunk to 4.1.

As things currently stand, they are projected favorites for each of the next two games — by only 1.1 points at Syracuse and 6.6 against NIU — and are projected underdogs in every remaining game.

Plots can twist themselves around pretty quickly, and for all we know, FSU will rally. But as we wait to see if that will happen, let’s take stock in what is specifically wrong with this Seminole squad thus far.

The eyes can tell you quite a bit:

The run game isn’t what it should be, considering the recruiting rankings involved.

Quarterback Deondre Francois doesn’t appear comfortable running the ball in this read-based system.

The offensive line, which began thin and has gotten thinner with injuries to tackle Landon Dickerson and guard Cole Minshew, can’t block.

The pass rush isn’t getting home.

The turnover backpack is dumb.

What can the stats, unbiased by dumb turnover gimmicks, tell us about where FSU stands two games in?

This is obviously a small sample, but what trends have emerged early on?

1. There are no easy third downs for the offense.

You can separate the field into three zones: the backed-up area near your goal line, the red zone near your opponent’s, and the space in between. For this exercise, we’ll define that open-play space as the area between your 10 and your opponent’s 30.

Last season in open-play situations, FSU ranked 37th in standard-downs success rate (49.9 percent). The Noles also ranked third at generating open-play first downs before third down.

They weren’t very good on passing downs with their second freshman quarterback (James Blackman, who took over for an injured Francois) in as many years, but they were reasonably capable of staying on schedule, and they kept Blackman out of third-and-longs.

So far this year, the Noles’ open-play success rate on standard downs is 36.4 percent (122nd), and they’re generating only 71 percent of their open-play first downs on first or second down (55th).

Nothing is coming easy in Taggart’s “Gulf Coast Offense.” Blue-chip sophomore running back Cam Akers’ rushing success rate has plummeted from 46 percent as a freshman to 25 percent as he seemingly seeks home runs. Only one of his first 28 carries of the season has gained more than 20 yards. Veteran Jacques Patrick is faring better, but only slightly: his success rate has merely fallen from 42 percent to 30 percent.

This is all resulting in more third-and-longs.

FSU third downs Percentage of third downs that are… 2016 (Rk) 2017 (Rk) 2018 (Rk) Percentage of third downs that are… 2016 (Rk) 2017 (Rk) 2018 (Rk) Third-and-long 50.9% (95th) 50.0% (76th) 60.0% (108th) Third-and-short 14.6% (10th) 13.4% (19th) 3.3% (121st)

Add in the fact that FSU’s run game has rendered it less capable of even converting third-and-shorts, and you’ve got a pretty difficult recipe.

2. Worst. Red zone offense. Ever.

You know what else happens when you can’t run? You probably can’t move in the red zone.

Last year, the national average for points per scoring opportunity (defined as first downs inside the opponent’s 40) was 4.42. FSU averaged 4.54 — not bad.

Against Virginia Tech, FSU generated four scoring opportunities and scored three points.

Against Samford, FSU generated eight scoring opportunities and scored 29 points.

That’s 32 points in 12 opps, or 2.67 points per chance. Gross. The only saving grace is that the defense is only allowing 3.07 points per opp.

The problems are comprehensive.

Back in 2016, when Francois led the Noles to a No. 3 ranking in Off. S&P+ and a 36-point scoring average (with lots of help from running back Dalvin Cook), FSU enjoyed a 49 percent success rate inside the 20 (19th overall), a 54 percent success rate inside the 10 (37th), and committed zero red zone turnovers.

This time: 38 percent inside the 20 (83rd), 36 percent inside the 10 (105th), and a 9.1 percent turnover rate inside the 10 (123rd). Their success rate on first-and-goal: 25 percent (106th).

FSU’s also already missed three field goals of 42 yards or shorter.

Bad. All bad. So much of this stems from the lack of a ground game. (This isn’t to let Francois off the hook. At least some of the run problems have come from iffy reads in run-pass options.)

The offense hasn’t been the only problematic unit, though. That was made pretty obvious by Samford gaining 525 yards on Saturday night.

3. It’s hard to get your defense the field when you can’t force third downs.

Just as FSU’s offense is facing too many, FSU’s defense isn’t facing enough.

FSU third downs (defense) Category 2017 (Rank) 2018 (Rank) Category 2017 (Rank) 2018 (Rank) Standard downs success rate (open play) 40.7% (16th) 54.7% (116th) Pct. of first downs generated on first or second down (open play) 59.1% (fifth) 86.7% (128th) Third down success rate (open play) 38.6% (62nd) 21.1% (ninth)

Defensively, the Noles have been Nole-like on third downs and in the red zone. But they’re not facing enough of the former situations and are therefore facing too many of the latter.

So what’s the problem? Linebacker play is among them. The Noles had to replace last year’s top three LBs — Matthew Thomas, Ro’Derrick Hoskins, and Jacob Pugh — and started the Samford game with one semi-veteran (junior Dontavious Jackson, who had 13.5 tackles last year) and two newbies (redshirt freshman DeCalon Brooks and true freshman nickel Jaiden Woodbey. Combine that with two sophomores at free safety (Stanford Samuels III and Hamsah Nasirildeen), and you can see how glitches could form.

4. Slow starts haven’t helped.

We can talk about how Samford torched FSU for 525 yards, but that is missing a bit of context: the Bulldogs torched the Noles at first. Their first six drives netted 348 yards (10.5 per play!) and 23 points, and their last 11 generated 177 yards (3.8) and three points. FSU adjusted and began treating its FCS opponent as it should — aside from pass rush issues, anyway (zero sacks in 60 Samford pass attempts) — but only after an unforgivable start.

It was a similar story with the Virginia Tech game: the Hokies gained 98 yards (6.1) and scored 10 points on their first two possessions, then just 221 yards (4.4) with seven points the rest of the game.

In theory, if you have to have issues, these are issues you’d accept.

FSU’s defense is finishing games well, dominating on third downs, and standing firm in the red zone. There are fundamental problems, but the defense is doing the biggest things pretty well.

The offense, however, is struggling in equally fundamental ways. And with the line getting thinner and more fragile, there’s no guarantee that those base issues — strangely bad run game, iffy Francois reads, etc. — will rectify themselves in time.

Still, the schedule offers room for wins. Syracuse’s offense is unique and scary, and NIU’s defense is tremendous, but these are still the two most winnable games remaining.

Win them to move to 3-1, and we’ll reassess. Drop either one, however, and Taggart’s first season could feature the worst kind of first: first missed bowl since 1981.