This is a conversation I have a lot with my friends who will let me talk about tennis. Who is going to be the next player to win their first grand slam? Rafa, Roger, and Novak have been dominating the game for years and very few people have been able to break through and actually win a slam. The last man to win his first grand slam was Marin Cilic at the US Open in 2014. That was 5 years ago. I keep thinking someone is bound to break through soon. So with the 2019 US Open starting, I thought I’d actually do the research. Rather than just speculate who the next first time grand slam winner will be, I calculated it.

There are a number of factors that go into this question and that I considered when constructing my formula. First off, you need to have shown me that you can win grand slam matches. Even if players have had success elsewhere, best of 5 is a different story. I looked at the last 8 grand slam tournament results. Those in the last year counted towards the point total more than the others. I also looked at how many titles each player has. You need that killer mentality and the stamina to win any tournament. They were weighted based on level (Masters 1000, 500, 250 respectively), and on how recently they had been won.

Obviously you have to be good, but you also have to be the right age. It’s hard to win a grand slam (especially your first) after 30. The Big 3 have made it look easy but they are also the 3 greatest players to ever play the sport. Based on the last 3 decades or so of tennis, I decided that the ideal age to win your first grand slam is 23 or 24. That’s not all that goes into it though. It also matters when you think someone will have the opportunity to win a grand slam. The Big 3 do not look like they are going to let someone win a grand slam any time soon. I feel like it will happen in the next year and a half or so. So anyone ages 22-24 were considered ideal. Anyone outside of that age range, above or below, was penalized. The further away from the age range, the heavier the penalty.

You can’t count on getting to the final by luck. If someone besides the Big 3 is going to win a grand slam, they will almost assuredly have to beat one or more of the Big 3 on their way to doing it. That’s why players’ records against the Big 3 played a huge role in this formula. If a player didn’t have any wins against the Big 3, they were penalized heavily. The better the player’s winning percentage against the Big 3 as a whole is, the smaller the penalty.

Finally, I threw in one last wildcard. It is going to take a hell of an effort from anyone hoping to win their first grand slam on any surface, but I just don’t see it happening on clay. Nadal has looked so strong at the French Open the last couple of years. It’s not impossible, but I think it far more likely the next first-time grand slam winner will break through on a grass or hard court. When taking into account grand slam record and career titles, any clay court results were slightly discounted.

I thought about putting a couple of other factors in there but held off. I almost included players current and career high rankings. The reason I didn’t was because the formula I set up was basically taking that into account already. Adding in rankings wouldn’t really add anything. I also considered adding in injury history. It’s hard to win a grand slam if you’re injured half the time (unless your name is Nadal), so I almost penalized players who have been injured a lot in their careers. I held off on this as well because I was taking into account grand slam results from the past two seasons and if a player was injured for one of those tournaments, they got 0 points for it. So I think injuries are well accounted for already.

I set up the formula and put 24 different players through it. Again this was just for players who have yet to win their first grand slam (no Cilic, Wawrinka, del Potro, Murray). I took everyone in the current top 20 who has yet to win a slam as well as a few guys outside the top 20 who I think could do it or who I just like (not gonna leave Diego out of this). After getting some very large numbers, I curved the results so that the 10th place player ended up with a nice even 10 points. Anyways, here are the top 10, complete with a few surprises!

1. Dominic Thiem 🇦🇹 73.96

Age: 25

How he made the list: Almost 20 points ahead of 2nd place, Thiem ran away with this one. Even undervaluing all of his clay court results he still clobbered the rest of the field. Thiem is the only man on the list to have made a grand slam final in the past two years and he’s done it twice. He’s shown he can win, racking up 14 career titles. He’s about the right age and has had success against the big 3 before.

How he makes it happen: According to this list, he’s the next up for a maiden grand slam title. While he can definitely compete with the best on a hard court, his best shot to do it is at Roland Garros. He’ll likely need Rafa at less than 100%, but he could win it all in France in 2020 or 2021.

2. Alexander Zverev 🇩🇪 54.43

Age: 22

How he made the list: For a long time Zverev looked like the natural choice to crash the Big 3’s party. He won plenty of titles at a young age but could never put a run together at a grand slam. His results at the slams are slowly getting better, but he scored very highly in every other category. He should be the perfect age to cash in when the Big 3 finally start to show signs of aging and he’s already shown he can beat them. The only question mark for him is if he can do it in a best of 5 format.

How he makes it happen: Zverev has a game suited well for all surfaces. His best results at the slams have been in France, but I don’t see him beating Rafa or Thiem there anytime soon. He’ll need to gain some confidence over the next few slams, but he could come away the winner at Wimbledon or the US Open in 2020.

3. Nick Kyrgios 🇦🇺 30.61

Age: 24

How he made the list: Yeah I know. When I first saw that Kyrgios ended up at number 3 on the list I thought I would have to change the formula, but it honestly starts to make sense when you think about it. There is no denying he’s got the talent to do it. When he first burst onto the scene by beating Nadal at Wimbledon in 2014 there was plenty of talk about grand slam titles in his future. He showed us he is still capable of winning tournaments recently in Washington, and he has a better winning percentage against the Big 3 than both Thiem and Zverev.

How he makes it happen: It would probably have to happen on the grass courts at Wimbledon. If Nick can get his ranking up as to avoid the big names in the first couple of rounds and keep his focus against early lesser opponents, he could be very dangerous in London the next couple of years.

4. Stefanos Tsitsipas 🇬🇷 24.32

Age: 21

How he made the list: Tsitsipas lands at number 4 thanks to his consistently strong play the last few years and his solid head to head stats against the Big 3. He also received bonus points for having the best hair on tour (not really). He became the youngest player to have beaten all 3 of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic when he defeated Nadal in Madrid this year at the age of 20. He’s shown he is capable of playing with anyone and he may just be prime for a deep run at a major.

How he makes it happen: Tsitsipas lost to Nadal in the semis last year in Melbourne. He made it there by beating Federer in the 4th round. His seed will be much higher going in to the Aussie next year than it was this year, so he’ll likely avoid the Big 3 until at least the quarters. If he gets lucky and makes it to the semis or even the final before facing one of them, he may be the champ in Australia in 2020.

5. Daniil Medvedev 🇷🇺 18.92

Age: 23

How he made the list: Medvedev has been on a tear recently. Coming off his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati (giving him one more than both Kyrgios and Tsitsipas), he is hitting the ball with loads of confidence. He’s made 3 finals in a row. He seems to be unstoppable. He hasn’t had a ton of success in the slams but he seems to just now be coming into his game.

How he makes it happen: Honestly, if anyone on this list is going to win the US Open this year, it’s this guy. He’s moved way up in the rankings and has a great seed. He got a rough draw as he would likely have to play Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal all in a row to win, but if he can ride this recent success into the second week, he has the potential pull off some stunning upsets.

6. Kei Nishikori 🇯🇵 18.86

Age: 29

How he made the list: Take away his injuries and Nishikori would be higher on this list. He doesn’t have a great record against the Big 3 and he’s the oldest of the top 10 so far, but he performs well, especially at the slams. In 2014 he lost to Cilic in the US Open final after beating 3 top 5 seeds in a row. He was one match away from not needing to be on this list. As it is, Nishikori makes it on the top 10 as one of just two players over the age of 25.

How he makes it happen: He would need a run of good health, but his great 5 set match record could carry him to a grand slam title. It would have to be soon, but he’s shown he performs well on all surfaces. If one or two of the Big 3 get upset early at next year’s Aussie, Wimbledon, or US Open, watch out for Kei.

7. Borna Coric 🇭🇷 16.09

Age: 22

How he made the list: Borna makes the list with pretty average results at the slams the last two years and just two career titles. What helps his ranking is his age, as well as already having two wins apiece against Roger and Rafa. He’s dealt with some injuries this year, but he has a great all-court game and can win on any surface when he’s healthy.

How he makes it happen: His best results at the slams have been at the French, but I think his best chance would be in New York. He is still a couple of steps away from being able to win a big one, so let’s say US Open 2021.

8. John Isner 🇺🇸 10.41

Age: 34

How he made the list: I mean I guess. My formula did a pretty good job of funneling the older players out of the top 10. The average age of the rest of the top 10 is 23. At 34 years old, Isner still made it to number 8 despite being the oldest player I put through the formula. He’s won a ton of titles though, and that is what sneaks him into the top 10. His record against the Big 3 isn’t great, but it’s just slightly better than many of the guys who barely missed out on the top 10.

How he makes it happen: It has to be Wimbledon, and it has to be next year. Isner is getting old, but his serve is still elite. On grass, he doesn’t have to exert as much energy to win points. He would need to play his best tennis and hope for a good draw, but Wimbledon 2020 is his best (and probably last) shot.

9. Karen Khachanov 🇷🇺 10.26

Age: 23

How he made the list: Khachanov has had a slow and steady rise over the past few years. Assuming he continues to improve, he absolutely deserves a spot on this list. His record against the Big 3 is the worst of anyone else on this top 10 list, but consider this: He is 4-0 in ATP finals, including a big win over Djokovic over in last year’s Paris Masters. That bodes well if he ever finds himself in a grand slam final.

How he makes it happen: While he made it to the quarters at this year’s French Open, all four of his titles have come on hard courts. It feels like he’s about a year away from a big run. If he can escape playing more than one of the Big 3, look out for Khachanov at the US Open 2020 or Australian Open 2021.

10. Andrey Rublev 🇷🇺 10.00

Age: 21

How he made the list: The third of three young Russians on this list, Rublev makes it by virtue of his recent win over Federer. And really that’s it. His victory over the Swiss legend in Cincinnati brings his record against the Big 3 to 1-1, which makes Rublev’s 50% winning percentage best in class in that category. With such a small sample size, 1 win gives him an enormous boost. Maybe it would make sense to dial back that boost, but it seems unfair to penalize him just because he beat Federer. Rublev’s career got off to a promising start, but he quickly watched his fellow Russian youngsters pass him in both ranking and accolades as he struggled to find his form. He seems to be on his way back now and it should be interesting to see who between Rublev, Khachanov, and Medvedev will have the better career.

How he makes it happen: I don’t think it would be any time soon. In order to win a grand slam before any of these other guys, he would have to hope that the Big 3 continue their dominance for at least a couple more years. If that happens, and Rublev continues to improve, he could make it happen in Melbourne or New York, 2022.

Below is a look at how the top guys stack up against each other, followed by the guys who didn’t quite crack the top 10.

11. Milos Raonic 🇨🇦 9.88

12. Roberto Bautista Agut 🇪🇸 8.10

13. Kevin Anderson 🇿🇦 7.30

14. David Goffin 🇧🇪 5.94

15. Fabio Fognini 🇮🇹 5.62

16. Kyle Edmund 🇬🇧 4.67

17. Gael Monfils 🇫🇷 4.25

18. Dennis Shapovalov 🇨🇦 4.15

19. Grigor Dimitrov 🇧🇬 3.38

20. Diego Schwartzman 🇦🇷 2.88

21. Nikoloz Basilashvili 🇬🇪 2.66

22. Alex de Minaur 🇦🇺 1.68

23. Guido Pella 🇦🇷 1.56

24. Felix Auger-Aliassime 🇨🇦 0.26

This lower list contains a lot of guys whose age pretty much ruled them out. Bautista Agut, Anderson, Fognini, and Monfils are all guys who have the results but received some of the heaviest age penalties. Other guys here like Felix and de Minaur are just too young still. It’s important to remember this list is ranking who is most likely to be the next first-time grand slam winner, not who is most likely to win a grand slam at some point in their career. It’s not really Felix’s fault that he got penalized for his record vs the Big 3 (he’s played Nadal once and lost), but I do think that the lack of experience factoring in is appropriate. The other guys that wind up here mostly have bad records against the Big 3. The one player who actually has a somewhat respectable record here is Shapovalov. Sure, he is just 1-4 against them all time but his 20% winning percentage is better than anyone else outside the top 10. Unfortunately, his grand slam results have been average recently and he has yet to win a title. Raonic barely misses out on the top 10 thanks to injuries keeping him out of some recent grand slams as well as the fact that most of his titles are from years and years ago.

Some Random Takeaways

Throwing a healthy Milos Raonic in with the top 10, I’d say there are 11 guys who could plausibly be the next first-time grand slam winner. I’d put them in four groups: Most Likely (Theim & Zverev), Very Possible (Kyrgios & Tsitsipas), Dark Horses (Medvedev, Nishikori, & Coric), and Long Shots (Isner, Khachanov, Rublev, & Raonic).

The US Open is probably the most likely tournament to crown a new grand slam winner. Why? Here’s how many active players have won each tournament.

Australian Open: 4 (Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Wawrinka)

French Open: 4 (Nadal, Federer, Wawrinka, Djokovic)

Wimbledon: 4 (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray)

US Open: 7 (Federer, del Potro, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Cilic, Wawrinka)

3 of the guys in the top 10 here wound up in the same section of the draw in the US Open. Tsitsipas plays Rublev in the first round, and the winner of that match will likely play Kygrios in the third round. Definitely a section to watch.

I’m pretty happy with this list, but who knows? Maybe someone towards the bottom of the list is the next first-time grand slam winner. Maybe it’s someone who I didn’t even include. Maybe Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic will all still be winning majors well into their fifties. At this point I’m not ruling that out. In any case, this has been a fun experiment and we can only wait and see which, if any, of these players will be the first to join the elite few who have won a grand slam title.